Feb 22

Today’s News 22nd February 2022

  • The Burden Of Proof Is Always On The Ones Making The Claim (Even If It's About Russia)
    The Burden Of Proof Is Always On The Ones Making The Claim (Even If It’s About Russia)

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    Well you’ll be shocked to learn that, while the Ukraine invasion we’ve been told for weeks was happening any day now still has not occurred, the US and UK have declared that Russia attacked Ukraine in an invisible and unverifiable way for which the evidence is secret.

    “The White House blamed Russia on Friday for this week’s cyberattacks targeting Ukraine’s defense ministry and major banks and warned of the potential for more significant disruptions in the days ahead,” AP reports.

    “Anne Neuberger, the Biden administration’s deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies, said the U.S. had rapidly linked Tuesday’s attacks to Russian military intelligence officers.”

    “Technical information analysis shows the GRU was almost certainly involved in disruptive DDoS attacks,” adds a statement from the UK Foreign Office.

    No evidence for this claim has been provided beyond the assertive tone with which American and British officials have uttered it, but that likely won’t stop arguments from western narrative managers that this “attack” justifies immediate economic sanctions.

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    You’ve probably also heard by now that President Biden announced at a press briefing that Vladimir Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine and violently topple Kyiv “in the coming days,” citing only “intelligence”.

    “What reason do you believe he’s considering that option at all?” a reporter asked Biden after his speech.

    “We have a significant intelligence capability, thank you very much,” the president answered, and made his exit.

    As we were reminded earlier this month in an interesting exchange between State Department spinmeister Ned Price and AP’s Matt Lee, US officials firmly believe that simply placing assertions next to the word “intelligence” should be considered rock solid proof that those assertions are true, and the press are expected to play along with this.

    And indeed, a large percentage of the political/media class is responding to Biden’s unevidenced claim that Putin has decided to launch a full-scale ground invasion of Ukraine as though that invasion is actually happening.

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    There are also accusations of false flags amid the fighting in eastern Ukraine and numerous other claims about what Russia is doing as it prepares for this invasion it’s supposed to launch, and it’s all just being blindly accepted as objectively true in mainstream political discourse. Nowhere is it questioned. Nowhere is the fault of the US and NATO in creating these tensions between Russia and Ukraine ever reported, nor are the geostrategic benefits the US hegemon stands to reap from this standoff. Few even bother trying to articulate what Moscow would gain from invading Ukraine, except the occasional infantile “they hate us for our freedom”-style think piece about how Putin just can’t stand democracy.

    If online you question the veracity of any of these claims in light of the extensive history these institutions have of lying to us about just this sort of thing, it’s treated as a freakish and bizarre interjection that is at best misguided and at worst proof that you’re an agent of the Kremlin. I haven’t received so many notifications from people calling me a Russian operative since 2018, which to me is funny because everything I was saying about western Russia narratives in 2018 has since been completely vindicated.

    And I think it’s important while this all unfolds to take a moment to remind ourselves that the burden of proof is always on the party making the claim. This is a basic principle we all hold true in matters of logic and debate and in the legal system, and really anywhere that disputed claims are scrutinized, and it doesn’t magically stop being the case just because a claim is spoken in an assertive tone by powerful people about a country they don’t like. If you make a claim in an irrelevant time-wasting Twitter argument you’ll immediately be asked for proof that it’s true, but if the most powerful government in the world makes an incendiary claim of potentially world-shaping consequence we’re all just expected to accept it, even though that government has a proven track record of making false claims.

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    The onus is not on anyone else to prove that the US and UK governments are lying when they make these claims, the onus is on the US and UK governments to prove that they are telling the truth. At some point after Donald Trump’s election it became a mainstream liberal doctrine that you can say whatever you want about Russia no matter how outrageous and suffer no professional consequences if it proved completely false, and nobody’s really been pushing back on that. So many people built entire careers out of suggesting for years on end that the entire Trump family was going to be dragged out of the White House in chains for Kremlin collusion, and when this failed to prove true everyone just acted like it was fine and continued on with their careers.

    But it’s not fine. It’s not okay that this bizarre cold war hysteria environment has melted everyone’s brain over the last five years. It’s not okay that the most basic standards of logic and evidence have been flushed down the toilet. It’s not okay that we now have MI6 spooks and CIA mouthpieces openly acknowledging that the government is using the western press to wage an information war geared at undermining Russia when both the government and the press are supposed to be simply telling us the truth.

    I don’t know what’s going to happen with Ukraine. What I do know is that it would be good to drag the Overton window of acceptable debate kicking and screaming back to the point where the burden of proof needs to be met even, and especially, by the world’s most powerful people. And where, if that burden is not met, their claims are treated with all the disdain they deserve.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 23:40

  • 30% Of People In India Believe COVID Is A Myth
    30% Of People In India Believe COVID Is A Myth

    If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the pandemic, it’s that everybody has a slightly different approach to how they deal with the challenges it has presented.

    Covid-19 has thrown up a lot of complex topics which both society and the individual have had to come to terms with and react to. However, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong points out, where these differences get away from the realm of “normal” and understandable, however, is when people completely reject the reality of the situation, saying that the coronavirus is a myth – created by “some powerful forces” – and that the virus does not exist.

    This is the wording used in a recent YouGov survey to gauge the extent to which populations believe this around the world.

    Infographic: Where People Believe Covid is a Myth | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Of the 24 countries surveyed, belief in the conspiracy theory was most widespread in India, where 30 percent of (urban) respondents professed to sharing this view on the pandemic.

    South Africa, Indonesia and Nigeria also stood out here, with 23, 20 and 19 percent, respectively.

    At the other end of the scale, belief was least common in Japan, Sweden, Great Britain and Denmark – here the results were between three and five percent.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 23:10

  • Fourth Turning 2022: Bad-Moon Rising, Part 4
    Fourth Turning 2022: Bad-Moon Rising, Part 4

    Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

    In Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 of this article I examined the power of propaganda and the use of fear to invoke a mass formation psychosis on millions of weak-minded victims of global elitist psychopaths weaponizing a flu as part of their plot to Reset the world as lords of a global fiefdom, with the lowly peasants owning nothing and being happy to be permitted to live. The trillions in debt created by central bankers and debased political hacks, play acting as wise all-knowing leaders, are also part of the plan to crash the global economy and further the aims of these globalist billionaires and their parasitic front men.

    The third segment of this unholy trinity has been the engineered civic decay spawned by the traitorous deeds of politicians, who have encouraged the invasion of over two million illegal freeloaders, aided domestic terrorists (BLM & Antifa) in burning and looting our cities for a year, facilitated the teaching of degeneracy to our children, and have pitted family against family, friend against friend, employer against employee, over a Big Pharma experimental therapy that doesn’t do anything but enrich those peddling it, injuring and killing millions, and tearing the last vestiges of our civil society to shreds.

    In this fourth and final installment I will try to anticipate what global disorder dynamics will come into play during the remainder of 2022 and beyond, impacting the level of violence and bloodshed before this Fourth Turning reaches its fateful climax. As Strauss and Howe warned 25 years ago, the risk of catastrophe would be high, and a positive outcome was far from guaranteed. We have entered the most dangerous phase of this Crisis, where decisions by dementia ridden puppet presidents, foreign dictators, central bankers, billionaire hedge fund managers, and billionaire software makers pretending to be medical experts, will determine the future course of history.

    “The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    “History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    When reading these foreboding words regarding the potential tragic outcomes for this Fourth Turning, it is easy to dismiss as ridiculous and nothing but fear porn. The reason younger generations reject the possibility of all-encompassing war is because the last Fourth Turning ended 77 years ago and most people who experienced the horror of World War II have died, extinguishing any direct knowledge of the conflict, initiating the cycle of war once more. Each Fourth Turning has its own dynamics, catalyzing events, and individuals which propel the crisis towards its convulsive climax.

    The U.S. hasn’t been in a major conflict since 1945, only military industrial complex created regional wars, designed to keep the hundreds of billions flowing to the defense industry and politicians in their pockets. War has been nothing but a racket for decades, but Fourth Turnings always plunge the nation into a chaotic life and death struggle, with a grand conflict to determine the future course of history. There are currently neocon chicken hawk warmongers in positions of power, along with bought journalistic whores pushing false narratives about Russia, who aren’t satisfied with peace, pushing for war. This cyclical extreme is destined to lead to war.

    “The ancients believed that each cyclical extreme, mirroring the hopes and fears of the other, helps generate the other. The night longs for the day, the day for night. In war, people yearn for relief from strife, leading to peace. In peace, people yearn to champion what they love, leading to war.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    The global disorder sweeping the world is multi-faceted, but it is all interconnected and can be tracked back to Soros, Schwab, and their globalist billionaire cabal. Never ending war is good business in an empire of lies. When in doubt about the intentions of politicians, world leaders, mainstream media talking heads, and self-proclaimed military experts, always follow the money.

    As Smedley Butler proclaimed during the last Fourth Turning, war has always benefited the rich, while young men die on battlefields as cannon fodder. The CIA initiated regional Middle East conflicts, propelled by CNN, MSNBC, Fox, and the rest of the government-controlled media, have kept the hundreds of billions flowing to the military industrial complex for decades and coffins arriving at Dover airbase.

    “War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small ‘inside’ group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes.” – Smedley Butler

    The current drumbeat for war being disseminated by Biden, his handlers, congressional psychopaths on both sides of the aisle, the neocon media, and Soros bribing “experts” to support war against Russia, is the perfect example of the ruling class trying to engineer a war to add to their fortunes and distract from their vile machinations. George Soros acknowledged, in an interview with CNN, that he actively contributed to the overthrow of former Ukrainian President, and ally of Putin, Viktor Yanukovych in 2014.

    The CIA and Soros installed their puppet Poroshenko as the illegitimate president, prompting Mr. Putin to annex Crimea, as Obama and his effeminate Secretary of State blustered and did nothing. Meanwhile Biden and his family harvested millions, peddling his influence for financial gain.

    Soros’ foundation is most certainly funding the disinformation campaign about Putin invading Ukraine at any moment. While the current president of the Ukraine, NATO, and Putin have attempted to defuse the situation and assure the world an invasion is not imminent, the Biden administration and the neocons in Congress and the media continue to beat the drums of war and spew propaganda in an effort bolster the bottom lines of arms dealers and billionaires pulling the strings behind the curtain. The war pigs will always rapaciously feed at the bottomless trough of fiat slop provided by the Fed and feckless whore politicians.

    Most of the global disorder is purposely created by the ruling oligarchs, to keep billions flowing into their coffers, while their puppet central bankers keep their printing presses operating at hyper-speed generating the debt necessary to keep waging endless war. War might be a racket, but debt creation is the lifeblood of the racket, and the Fed is the racketeer. The captured corrupt politicians occupying D.C. at the behest of the monied interests who selected them to be “elected” by the clueless dupes thinking their vote mattered, sell their souls to the highest bidder.

    Transferring the tax dollars absconded from you at gunpoint (aka the tax code) into the pockets of arms peddler conglomerates can only be done with the acquiescence and succor of Powell and his electronic printing press. The never-ending creation of debt is the lifeblood of war and the root of the global disorder engulfing the world.

    The hyperbolic screeching from Biden, Blinken, their band of petulant pretender foreign affairs “professionals”, those in the pockets of the military industrial complex, the toadies in the corporate media, and neo-cons who have never met a war they didn’t want to wage, is pushing this country towards conflict with a nuclear power led by a serious man who will not be intimidated by amateurs.

    Despite the fact the Ukraine has no strategic interest to the United States, Biden’s handlers are having him threaten, bluster, and ratchet up the invective towards Russia and Putin, as if this is nothing more than a harmless game of Risk they played as kids. Their propaganda efforts are producing the desired effect, just as it has done during the two-year flu fear-fest. Even though there is absolutely no threat to our nation or security, almost three quarters of Americans think we will go to war in the next twelve months. That $770 billion defense budget needs to be spent somehow.

    While the Ukraine situation approaches the boiling point, the focus on China has been diverted, especially with their least watched Olympics in history winding down. China has been at war with U.S. for at least a decade, infiltrating our universities, buying influence in our medical, media, financial industries, positioning Manchurian candidates throughout our political system, controlling media messaging, stealing our military and technology secrets, and destroying our economy with their bio-weapon virus.

    This behind the curtain warfare has begun to blossom into traditional warfare, with the posturing and threats regarding Taiwan. China and Russia have been increasingly teaming up economically, financially, and militarily to create a buffer against U.S. global hegemony which has been unimpeded since 1946, the end of the last Fourth Turning. There is a distinct chance America’s crumbling empire of debt will not retain its world dominance when the climax of this crisis ensues over the next five to ten years.

    Global disorder encompasses more than just major global war between superpowers, with multiple scenarios involving Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, Pakistan, and Iraq capable of igniting a broader conflict and driving oil prices into the stratosphere. The wars fought since the last Fourth Turning have been nothing more than skirmishes, despite the immense death, destruction, and financial cost of waging those wars.

    A winner takes all struggle to the death confrontation is what brings a Fourth Turning to its bitter end, with the victor taking the spoils and writing the history, while the vanquished is left in ruins. As we begin 2022 most people are oblivious to the potential level of violence and bloodshed likely over the next few years. Americans were just as oblivious in 1860 and then eighty years later in 1940. The level of anger towards tyrannical government leaders sweeping the globe will be channeled and directed for good or bad in the very near future.

    Fourth Turnings occur because human nature never changes. Those who rise to power are always driven by power, control, and wealth. Their egos are large, and they are driven by greed and seeking the accolades of others. Their hubris and influence seeking are often more powerful than their intellect or moral character.

    Mistakes in judgement or failure to recognize the intent of their enemies, often leads to disastrous consequences for their citizens. We are currently facing situations on multiple fronts, where having a senile puppet president puts the world in mortal danger. Biden’s calamitous domestic record after one year is leading his handlers to push for a foreign conflict to distract from their imploding domestic agenda and economy destined for recession before the end of the year.

    Most countries in the western world, along with China & Russia, also have economic problems created by politicians playing the roles assigned to them by Schwab and the globalist Davos billionaires. The cataclysmic actions taken by these spineless corrupt flunkies and feckless central bankers acting on behalf of the Wall Street cabal, have destroyed global economies, extinguished small business entrepreneurs, ignited raging inflation (devastating the finances of the poor and working class), ruined global supply chains, drove energy prices higher, and have insured a global recession within a year.

    What do politicians and dictators do when their economies are falling apart? They look for a foreign conflict in order to rally the ignorant masses around the flag. And then someone does something stupid and all hell breaks loose.  When hell breaks loose it’s not the politicians or central bankers who will die in battle, it’s our sons used as cannon fodder to feather the nests of globalist billionaires hiding in their secure penthouse suites or behind high walls with armed guards. Global tyrants in pissing matches are a major driver of global disorder, but when the tyrants start pissing on their own subjects, a new level of disorder is unleashed.

     

    The totalitarian measures being inflicted upon Canadian citizens exercising their freedom to peacefully protest illegal vaccine mandates should be a wake-up call for all Americans. Trudeau and his jackboots are trampling the rights of good people. He has pulled off his socialist mask to reveal himself to be a full-fledged communist dictator, wielding a truncheon against blue collar truck drivers, women, children, and using the full force of his despotically seized “emergency” powers to seize bank accounts and destroy the lives of people who are the backbone of the Canadian economy.

     

    This entire manufactured health “crisis” has been used by Schwab’s acolytes like Trudeau, Ardern, Macron, and the other WEF Global Young Leader graduates, to implement the Great Reset by destroying their countries in order to build back better, where they own it all and we own nothing.

    The western world has been socially engineered and propagandized into enemy camps, with those cherishing freedom, liberty, free speech, and the Bill of Rights at odds with those insisting on total government control, mandates, regulations, censorship, and the use of force to inflict their beliefs upon everyone.

    The divide in this country, Canada and across Europe has never been wider, with daily skirmishes across social media, at school board meetings, in workplaces, and increasingly in the streets, is threatening to breakout into full-fledged civil war, with the flames fanned on a daily basis by the treasonous scum in the corporate media spreading lies, misinformation, and malicious contempt for societal norms in order to create chaos, hatred and havoc.

    With those pulling the strings of society purposely trying to tear down institutions, invoke the insanity of woke prophets (profiteers), destroy the lives of those who dare stand up to their insane ideology, and using fear to control the masses, only a minority of freedom loving patriots stand in the way of our nation’s destruction.

    It seems clear to me the level of internal and external chaos on a global scale is approaching a crescendo and it will not dissipate before war breaks out within our borders and across the world. With global supply chains already broken, energy and food prices skyrocketing, and shortages of technology components, the fragility of our just in time supply system is in peril. The Canadian Freedom Convoy has inspired millions around the world to resist their authoritarian statist overlords.

    Truckers are the lifeblood of our economic system, and if they refuse to drive those trucks our society will self-destruct rapidly. Beating and imprisoning those who sustain your society is not a brilliant strategy, but that is what Trudeau, and his ilk are doing. When the hordes of starving peasants descend upon the gated estates of the ruling class, all of their theoretical build back better bullshit won’t do them a damn bit of good. They have provoked this conflict, but are they sure their police thugs and woke military recruits will have their back permanently?

    “The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury or long life or happiness: only power, pure power. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?” ― George Orwell, 1984

    Trudeau, Biden, Macron, Johnson, and lesser tyrants like Newsom, Whitmer, Murphy, Lightfoot, and DeBlasio have used the plandemic as the means to seize power through illegal emergency power declarations and have no intention of relinquishing this ill-begotten authority unless forced to do so by the people they are suppressing and abusing. Schwab and the globalist billionaires he represents trained and indoctrinated most of the global leaders who are now attempting to implement a controlled demolition of western democratic societies and the market based financial systems which had given rise to increasing prosperity until the dawn of this century.

    When republics devolve into democracies the seeds of its destruction are planted and when free market capitalism mutates into a globalist scheme of corporate fascism, permanent enslavement or revolution are the only two options for the citizens. Blood will need to be shed before these petty tyrants are rightfully eliminated from power.

    At this point, the question remains as to how much bloodshed and whose blood will be spilled before this Fourth Turning reaches its historic culmination. The catalyst for this Fourth Turning was, and still is, the self-induced destruction of our financial system by evil men seeking ungodly material wealth on earth. Everything the ruling class has done since 2008 has been to prop up a bankrupt system in order to retain their wealth, power, and control.

    They have run out of runway and are about to crash the global economic system. It looks increasingly likely it will happen in 2022, as they have created an unsolvable financial dilemma, which insures a recession/depression and the extinguishment of trillions in faux wealth in the stock market and housing market.

    Their arrogance and egotistical belief in their own intellectual powers make them think they can pull off this controlled demolition unscathed, while retaining their positions of power through utilizing the levers of propaganda, police state thuggery, military might, surveillance state technology, and certainty the willfully ignorant masses will do as they are told. Of course, the best laid plans of tyrants don’t always pan out as expected.

    A global recession, stock market crash, and supply chain implosion will set off an uncontrollable chain reaction which will ignite the global conflagration and lead to civil and global war. We were warned, but most did not heed the portent to prepare. There will be no way to escape what is coming, but we must realize who stands on the side of good and who embodies the evil currently in control of our government, media, universities, military, medical and financial institutions.

    “The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

    It is easy to dismiss or ridicule the terms good and evil because there has been a concerted effort by the political class and their media mouthpieces to blur the distinction between the two, just as they have done by fostering the belief abnormal immoral behavior should be celebrated and promoted, while normal moral behavior should be scorned and ridiculed. The religious based concepts of good and evil are clear and concise, therefore they do not allow lackey politicians and the true ruling class of elites the leeway to lie, cheat and steal their way to power, control, and wealth. These terms have meaning and usefulness in assessing the character and integrity of those we associate with and those we elect to represent our interests.

    The last two years have not been a medical emergency, but a test of critical thinking skills and the ability to discern between liars, thieves, money whores, and the forces of evil versus truth tellers and those committed to freedom, liberty, and the forces of good.

    Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, one of the bravest truth-telling men of the 20th Century, understood the concepts of good and evil better than anyone, as he was exposed to the excruciating evilness of the Soviet Union and the communist henchmen who carried out Stalin’s evil doctrine of imprisonment and murder. Both good and evil reside in the human heart, and it is our free will which leads us towards the light or the darkness.

    Our world has become shrouded in darkness, with evil permeating from every fiber of our WEF indoctrinated leaders and the globalist elites (Schwab, Soros, Gates, Bezos, Zuckerberg, et.al.) running the world. The world is awash in nurtured falsehoods, perpetual disinformation, fake news, fear propaganda, and outright lies. It’s enough to drive a good person mad. We can not bow down to evil. Solzhenitsyn and Orwell saw communism for what it was – pure evil. We must cling to the truth at all costs, no matter the consequences, for our children and their children.

    “You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

    “Being in a minority, even in a minority of one, did not make you mad. There was truth and there was untruth, and if you clung to the truth even against the whole world, you were not mad.” ― George Orwell, 1984

    As I have laid out, the battle between good and evil has already commenced, with an uncertain outcome hanging in the balance. Human beings and their nature have not changed across the centuries. They are susceptible to emotions and miscalculations. With the level of global disorder at extremes, some world leader is going to make a mistake and initiate the next bloody chapter of this Crisis. That is a certainty. Each Fourth Turning has seen huge technological advancements which make killing and destruction far easier and lethal.

    If and when war comes, it will be less likely to be on a traditional battlefield and more likely to be waged by government sanctioned computer hackers paralyzing key infrastructure, the power grid, satellites, the internet, and your linkage to modern day niceties. There will be no Pickett’s Charge or D-Day Invasion. Starvation and freezing to death are more likely than glorious battlefield victories. It is doubtful any of us are truly prepared for the type of war which will be waged. And that’s if some reckless tyrant doesn’t use their nukes, commencing an Armageddon scenario.

    Strauss & Howe offered four sobering conclusions to our current Crisis, likely to play out over the next five to ten years. All the exertions of good people, following the path of righteous truth, should be focused on defeating the evil forces, allowing a new High to commence, leaving our children with a renewed republic and hope for the future. It’s all we can do.

    1. This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection, and bad luck.

    2. The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rhythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.

    3. The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.

    4. Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 22:40

  • Banks Float Fewer Rate Hikes Due To Ukraine Crisis
    Banks Float Fewer Rate Hikes Due To Ukraine Crisis

    For the past month we have countered that amid predictions of “six or seven” rate hikes in 2022, and – most recently – as much as nine consecutive rate hikes as JPMorgan forecast last Friday, the Fed will be able to pull off at most a handful (see “Market Starts Pricing-In Rate-Cuts As Hot CPI Confirms Fed Policy Error Imminent“) before it is forced to relent as the market realizes the Fed is hiking right into a policy error.

    Curiously, it was none other than JPMorgan (no, it was another analyst there, not the one who called for 9 consecutive rate hikes) who late last week warned that the forward OIS curve is now the most inverted it has ever been, confirming that the forward looking rates market is already focusing on the rate cuts that will come after the current brief tightening cycle.

    In fact, it was just last week when we said that in a short 6 months, Wall Street consensus will turned dramatically, and some time in the late summer, strategist will be tripping over each other who can come up with the biggest number of rate cut forecasts for 2023 and onward, as the economy hits a brick wall.

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    Now, with the Ukraine situation in play and with oil surging and threatening to explode to levels that would promptly crash global economic growth (similar to what happened in the summer of 2008 when $150 coupled with the Lehman bankruptcy promptly sparked the Global Financial Crisis), others are also starting to admit that what comes next is not some exponential rate hiking spiral, but a Fed that returns to its grass roots of monetary stimulus, especially after the midterms when the GOP will take control of Congress making new fiscal stimulus impossible for years.

    In a late Monday note from SMBC Nikko Securities chief currency and foreign bond strategist, Makoto Noji, he wrotes that the U.S. rate market will gradually price in the possibility that a terminal rate for the Fed of 2% or lower will be sufficient to keep inflation in check, as “a deepening correction in stocks will lead to a higher savings rate for U.S. households, cooling consumption and damping down inflation.”

    As such, according to Noji, the Fed won’t have to be dovish to support stock prices, although the central bank is unlikely to avoid raising rates in March or to rethink a hike path beyond March (unless, of course, there is some unexpected market crash in the next 4 weeks). According to SMBC, long-term Treasury yields are likely fall moderately into summer, and indeed they have fallen sharply already, tumbling from over 2.1% last week to 1.85% as of this moment on military conflict fears… because the surest way to a global recession, and much more central bank stimulus, is an economic-shock inducing eruption in oil prices. In fact, just two weeks ago we suggested that if the Fed really wants to nuke inflation and spark an economic slowdown (or recssion), it should send oil to $200 first.

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    Noji is not the only one to suggest that the events in Ukraine will impact the Fed’s strategy: none other than JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic wrote last Monday that “while the risk of conflict in Ukraine is high, it should have limited impact on global equity markets and would likely prompt a dovish reassessment by CBs.“

    Because if there is anything that the Fed won’t hike into, it’s global war one would think…

    Meanwhile, the market is already responding and swap traders trimmed bets on future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as escalating tensions over Ukraine hit risk assets. As shown below, overnight-indexed swaps signal a 19% chance of a 50bps hike in March, compared with a 56% probability seen a week ago. The odds have been steadily coming down given geopolitical risks and recent speeches from Fed officials downplaying that possibility.

    Still, OIS indicate the Fed will raise its policy rate by almost 150bps, or 6 rate hikes, by the end of this year, well below the 175bps last week.

    Should the conflict in Ukraine, and the US economic slowdown escalate further, watch as the number of rate hikes priced by the rates market at the end of 2022 shrinks with every passing day, until the tightening scare of January 2022 is a distant memory.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 22:10

  • 300 Cars Converge In Attempt To Take Over Virginia City: Police
    300 Cars Converge In Attempt To Take Over Virginia City: Police

    By Jack Phillips of The Epoch Times

    Police in Richmond, Virginia, said that 300 cars converged in an attempt to take over the city during the past weekend. Authorities said that the individuals involved wanted to block streets to carry out illegal activities.

    “Their entire point was to come to Richmond, specifically Richmond, to do ‘burnouts,’ ‘donuts,’ and other illegal activities on the streets of Richmond,” Richmond Police Chief Gerald Smith said at a news conference.

    Police said the cars gathered in Richmond at around 9 p.m. on Feb. 19 and stopped at several locations, posing a threat to public security by blocking roads and intersections as well as engaging in reckless driving.

    “What could have been a potentially deadly gathering of individuals fueled by large spectator crowds was prevented by RPD officers who issued 45 summons for various offenses,” Richmond Police Department spokesperson Tracy Walker said.

    “We watch social media quite a bit, monitoring for any illegal activities and things that can help us in the investigation, and we came across it, and we started to monitor it very closely,” Smith said.

    Multiple vehicles were seen doing “donuts” and “burnouts” in parking lots and other areas. The drivers dispersed within hours after officers issued the summonses for various offenses.

    “That’s very dangerous behavior: speeding. You’re talking about they are taking their life in their own hand, and not only their life, but an innocent pedestrian who may not know exactly what’s taking place,” Smith said.

    One person was arrested on a felony charge of eluding police, reckless driving, and having an illegal window tint, officials said. His vehicle was impounded.

    “There’s no other way to put it. This is foolish, and it’s not going to be tolerated in Richmond,” said Smith, adding that officers estimated that about 1,500 people were involved.

    Police didn’t provide other details about the incident.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 21:40

  • US Evacuates Ukraine Embassy Staff To Poland
    US Evacuates Ukraine Embassy Staff To Poland

    The US State Department has evacuated Ukraine embassy staff from Ukraine to Poland on Monday, amid fears that Russia will launch an attack on Kiev, Bloomberg reports. War fears escalated on Monday, after Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow would immediately recognize the breakaway Donbass republics of Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (LPR) as sovereign nations.

    The officials are expected to remain at a hotel just over the border with Poland, though they could return to Ukraine as soon as Tuesday if the State Department determines that the security situation has stabilized.

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    Secretary of State Anthony Blinken confirmed, saying that “for security reasons, Department of State personnel currently in Lviv will spend the night in Poland.  Our personnel will regularly return to continue their diplomatic work in Ukraine and provide emergency consular services.”

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    The move “of the small contingent of American diplomats still in Ukraine” comes one week after Washington relocated its embassy operations to Lviv from Kiev, citing a “dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces” near Ukraine’s borders. President Joe Biden’s administration has now ordered all remaining State Department employees in Ukraine to leave the country altogether, Bloomberg reporter Jennifer Jacobs said on Monday, citing unidentified sources.

    Embassy staffers may return to Ukraine tomorrow “if the Russian invasion doesn’t happen, I’m told,” Jacobs added. US officials earlier this month urged American citizens in Ukraine to leave the country, saying they would be allowed to cross into Poland by land without advanced approval from Warsaw.

    Embassy and consular activities will continue from Poland and the move is not intended to signal any shift in U.S. support for Ukraine, according to two of the U.S. officials. The U.S. alerted high-ranking officials in Ukraine before pulling out its embassy staff, and consulted with allies who also operate diplomatic facilities in the country, according to Bloomberg.

    Last week’s embassy evacuation from Kiev reportedly included destruction of the facility’s computer systems and communications gear for fear that the equipment could fall into the hands of Russian forces. Lviv is in western Ukraine, further away than Kiev from the country’s borders with Russia and Belarus.

    Several other countries have moved their embassies and issued travel alerts warning their citizens not to travel to Ukraine, following U.S. assessments that Russia could be planning to invade imminently.

    There is hope that the move will compel Americans who remain in the country to get out as quickly as possible, one of the officials said. The move underscores concern that Russian military operations in Ukraine may not discriminate between military and civilian targets

    Meanwhile, the Chinese embassy in Ukraine has told its citizens and Chinese companies to be careful of safety, it said in a statement on its website, as tensions in Ukraine escalate. The statement says that Chinese should not head to “unstable” areas, and that they should also stock up on food and water. The embassy noted that Chinese associations should help out Chinese in Ukraine.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 21:15

  • "Act Of Intimidation" – Australia Blasts China For Laser Attack On Spy Plane
    “Act Of Intimidation” – Australia Blasts China For Laser Attack On Spy Plane

    Australia-China relations have soured in recent years as decoupling continues. Last week, the latest rumblings between the two nations occurred when a Chinese warship targeted an Australian spy plane with a laser, according to CNN. 

    Economically, Australia has supplied China’s industries with commodities for decades. However, when the Australian government led an international call for the inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, in 2020, Beijing became furious. It slapped anti-dumping duties on Australian barley and other products. Chinese importers were forced to stop purchasing Australian coal, liquefied natural gas, and other commodities. 

    A growing trade rift has morphed into a geopolitical crisis between Canberra and Beijing in the Indo-Pacific area. Tensions jumped Thursday when Canberra said a People’s Liberation Army warship targeted an Australian P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft with a laser. Canberra called the incident an “act of intimidation.” 

    On Monday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the incident “dangerous” and “reckless.”

    “This was dangerous, it was unprofessional and it was reckless for a professional navy, and we want some answers as to why they did this. At worst, it was intimidating and bullying.

    “They’re the ones who need to explain, not just to Australia, but to think of all the countries in our region. It could occur to anyone else who is just simply doing the normal surveillance of their own Exclusive Economic Zone,” Morrison said. 

    Morrison has yet to hear from Chinese defense officials about the incident though China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the vessel abided by international law.

    “After checking with relevant Chinese authorities, the information released by the Australian side is not true. The normal navigation of the Chinese ship on the high seas conforms to relevant international law and practice and is completely legitimate and lawful.

    “We urge the Australian side to respect the legitimate rights of Chinese vessels in relevant waters in accordance with international law and stop maliciously spreading false information about China,” Wenbin said.

    State-run tabloid the Global Times even flipped the script and accused Canberra of trying to damage Beijing’s maritime reputation.

    “The Australian military knowingly hyped this with the aim of throwing mud at China,” the article said.

    This isn’t the first time China’s military has used lasers against aircraft. In 2018, the Pentagon notified all U.S. airmen operating in Djibouti to be careful of lasers directed at them by military personnel at a Chinese base in the African country. There have been numerous incidents of U.S. airmen targeted by Chinese lasers in the western Pacific Ocean. 

    The latest encounter comes as the world is concentrated on the crisis in Ukraine and whether Russia will invade. There are hopes for a diplomatic resolution. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 20:40

  • Israel Will "Never" Come To Terms With "Weaker" Iran Nuclear Deal
    Israel Will “Never” Come To Terms With “Weaker” Iran Nuclear Deal

    Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com, 

    With reports of an imminent return to the Iran nuclear deal, Israel is being very public in their disapproval of the matter, and how ‘weak’ they think the deal ultimately will be.

    The deal isn’t public yet, and looks fairly straightforward. Israel has been grousing at the talks for months, however, and the truth of the deal matters much less than the Israeli government being mad about it.

    Former army chief, now Defense Minister Benny Gantz, via The Washington Post

    DM Benny Gantz was the most clear about how intractable Israel will be, saying Israel could never come to terms with Iran becoming a nuclear threshold state.

    “Action must be taken to ensure that Iran does not continue to enrich in additional facilities and oversight must be increased,” he said. Gantz demanded that the IAEA continue to investigate open files of wrongdoing. “Development of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads must be stopped,” he added.

    “Iran takes over failed states, forcing them to defend Iranian interests while committing human rights violations,” he charged of Israel’s longtime nemenis.

    This as Prime Minister Naftali Bennet said “We may see an agreement shortly,” adding that the current deal in progress in Vienna “is shorter and weaker than the previous one.”

    To be clear, a nuclear threshold state is a nation without nuclear arms, but with the technological capability to build them. There are any number of nations with threshold capacity, simply by virtue of technological advancement.

    That means Iran doesn’t have to do anything antagonistic, and Israel will still be unhappy with them in general.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 20:05

  • With Ratings In Death Throes, CNN Finds New Shiny Object In Ukraine Drama
    With Ratings In Death Throes, CNN Finds New Shiny Object In Ukraine Drama

    As CNN struggles to maintain their last shred of credibility amid record low ratings and multiple sex scandals, the beleaguered cable news network has found a new shiny object: Ukraine.

    Forbes recaps CNN‘s terrible month so far, starting with the ouster of president Jeff Zucker over an inappropriate workplace relationship:

    Zucker’s exit has led to a series of damaging reports, including a New York Times story detailing Gollust’s role in influencing the questions to be asked during a live interview with then-Governor Andrew Cuomo. Gollust was forced to resign from CNN on February 15. She denies violating journalistic norms in passing along suggested questions from Cuomo—for whom she had worked previously—to network producers.

    Now, a review of ratings data compiled by Nielsen shows the internal chaos at the network is mirrored by deep declines in viewership across all day parts—total day and prime time. Through February 15, CNN’s average prime time audience among viewers 25-54—the key demographic valued by advertisers—was just 126,000, representing a 69% drop from the same period one year ago. Among total viewers, the average audience was 534,000, a decline of 68% from 2021.

    *  *  *

    And so, with their own house on fire and ratings in the toilet, CNN is doing what they do best – latching onto and amplifying the outrage du jour – in this case, Ukraine.

    As Kalev Leetaru notes at RealClear Politics:

    How are the latest Ukraine developments being covered on television news? The timeline below shows the total seconds of airtime across CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and BBC News London since the start of this year in which Ukraine was mentioned somewhere in the onscreen text, showing a surge of mentions starting in late January, then declining through around February 11th, before surging again and then leveling off or declining slightly.

    Just since the start of this year, CNN has mentioned Ukraine more than twice as much as Fox News.

    Looking at spoken mentions of Ukraine and adding several additional international channels, a similar pattern emerges, though with an additional surge of mentions about a week earlier.

    Since the start of this year, Al Jazeera, Russia Today and DW have mentioned Ukraine the most.

    Looking instead at mentions of Putin, rather than Ukraine, Al Jazeera, DW and Russia Today rank at the bottom, with CNN and MSNBC mentioning Putin the most, reflecting differing narrative framings that emphasize either Ukraine or Russia more.

    *  *  *

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 19:30

  • America's Forgotten Seven Million: Unlocking Financial Freedom Through Bitcoin
    America’s Forgotten Seven Million: Unlocking Financial Freedom Through Bitcoin

    Authored by Ray Youssef via Bitcoin Magazine,

    Bitcoin is about people, not price.

    While the U.S. continues to focus on bitcoin as an investment asset, other parts of the world are showing us the true use cases of Bitcoin. In countries like Argentina, El Salvador and Nigeria, Bitcoin is a means to financial inclusion. The emerging markets demonstrate that Bitcoin has the power to connect the unbanked and underbanked to the larger global financial ecosystem. They are providing a strong foundation for the West, showing us how Bitcoin can reduce wealth inequality and solve some of the world’s greatest financial challenges.

    In 2021, 18% of American adults were either unbanked or underbanked. The unbanked, often from underinvested communities, did not even have access to a basic bank account, while the underbanked were shut out from banking services based on income or a lack of education. Bitcoin finally changes this narrative, offering a solution for the millions ignored by today’s financial system. Peer-to-peer finance provides a real and sustainable alternative to traditional finance for the 99% and beyond, giving the next generation a new chance at economic opportunity.

    EDUCATION FOR THE PEOPLE

    Education on Bitcoin and its true use cases remain the biggest challenge in the U.S. Bitcoin has the power to reduce barriers to wealth for the forgotten seven million who remain unbanked. It is access to financial opportunity for the 100%, bridging the gap for the underrepresented. When mayors from cities like New York and Miami begin to call for Bitcoin education to be taught in schools, we know that our time is now.

    We’re seeing progress happen across the country. In places like the Bronx, New York, students are being taught the value of peer-to-peer networks as a tool for financial freedom. And at universities, Bitcoin courses are being integrated into their curriculum. But, this is just the beginning of unlocking the true power of Bitcoin education. Through Bitcoin, the people have the opportunity to take financial power back into their own hands, and it’s our responsibility to do our part to fill this gap.

    By staying connected to the streets, businesses and leaders in the space can utilize their platforms for good. Take El Salvador for example. At Paxful, we’re seeing the need for education on the ground. While the country became the first to roll out bitcoin as legal tender, the biggest challenge for the people remains education. In response, we’ve launched La Casa del Bitcoin, a new education and training center in San Salvador. The center is providing free, no-cost education to anyone interested in learning about the power of Bitcoin and giving them the tools they need to succeed.

    BITCOIN IN AMERICA

    Bitcoin is a borderless and permissionless technology that was built for the world. It is a tool that can move value across borders and change the way people access the global economy. For Renata Rodrigues, a Paxful user (and employee) in the U.S., bitcoin is a means for supporting her family overseas in Brazil. By buying and selling bitcoin, she is able to avoid expensive remittance fees while also earning a little in return. Addressing the issues of both price and speed in traditional methods of remittance, Bitcoin solves this.

    The next wave of Bitcoin adoption has begun. With cryptocurrency making its debut at America’s biggest sporting event of the year, we know that we’re on our way to reaching mass adoption. But Bitcoin will never reach its full potential in the U.S. if we continue to view it solely for speculation and investment rather than connecting to its real use cases. Let’s not make the mistake of mirroring it after traditional financial systems and use education to drive financial freedom. Because global Bitcoin adoption begins and ends with education. It’s time to put the “greed is good” narrative to bed and start working for the people.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 18:55

  • It "Was Not Made To Be Housing" – NYC Mayor Unveils Crackdown On Homeless "Cancerous Sore" On Subway System
    It “Was Not Made To Be Housing” – NYC Mayor Unveils Crackdown On Homeless “Cancerous Sore” On Subway System

    Following a string of violent crimes on the New York subway system in recent weeks, including a knife attack on Feb. 17 in broad daylight, freshly minted New York Mayor Eric Adams is making an aggressive push to try to remove homeless people, announcing a plan to start barring people from sleeping on trains or riding the same lines all night.

    “People tell me about their fear of using the system and we are going to ensure that fear is not New York’s reality,” Adams said.

    “The system is not made to be housing,” Adams said Friday at a press conference.

    “It’s made to be transportation and we have to return back to that basic philosophy.”

    Alongside Adams, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul echoed his comments, saying that:

    “we know it’s a big problem. But shame on us if this moment in time, if we don’t turn over every single stone, find every possible way to to deal with this.”

    Adams called it a complex problem, saying:

    “You can’t put a band-aid on a cancerous sore,” but, “You must remove the cancer and start the healing process.”

    Of course, this prompted outrage among some with Shelly Nortz, the deputy executive director for policy at the Coalition for the Homeless, calling the mayor’s comment “sickening” and said “criminalizing homelessness” was not the answer.

    “Repeating the failed outreach-based policing strategies of the past will not end the suffering of homeless people bedding down on the subway. It is sickening to hear Mayor Adams liken unsheltered homeless people to a cancer. They are human beings,” Nortz said.

    Police Commissioner Keechant Seweell said the police department will start enforcing the new rules in New York City subway this week.

    Police teams, she said, will focus on high-traffic areas or areas where there have been reports of crime.

    As OPB reports, subway ridership cratered during the pandemic, homeless people have become more visible, sometimes sleeping on platforms or several seats on a train, something the mayor has said contributes to a general feeling of “disorder” in the nations’ largest city. The mayor, who has emphasized the appearance of crime and disorder as being just as important to tackle as the actual crime statistics, said it was unacceptable that the system allowed, in one case, a woman to live under a stairway inside a station for months.

    “That is not dignity. That is disgusting,” he said. “And that’s not who we are as a city.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 18:20

  • Equity Futures Open Down Hard; Gold, Oil, & Treasuries Spike
    Equity Futures Open Down Hard; Gold, Oil, & Treasuries Spike

    As somewhat expected, the general risk-off theme has hit market as they reopened after Putin’s actions.

    US equity futures extended their losses with Nasdaq down over 2.5%…

    Treasury futures indicate a 5bps or so drop in the 30Y Yield to around 2.18%…

    WTI spiked above $94…

    And Gold is above $1915…

    The question is – what headline between now and tomorrow’s open will spark the algos into life and lift stocks green?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 18:08

  • Border Crisis Can't Wait Three More Years For A New Administration To Fix: Russ Vought
    Border Crisis Can’t Wait Three More Years For A New Administration To Fix: Russ Vought

    Authored by Harry Lee and Steve Lance via THe Epoch Times,

    The situation at the southern border has been so bad that it can’t wait three more years for a new administration to step in, and border states have the constitutional authority to defend themselves, according to Russ Vought, former director of the Office of Management and Budget under the Trump administration.

    “We have a real crisis along our border: record apprehensions; the drug cartels are basically in operational control of our border; massive amounts of drugs are coming across the southern border,” Vought said in an interview with NTD’s “Capitol Report” program on Feb. 12.

    “And so from the standpoint of where we are, as a country, we’re no longer in a position where the country can just wait three years to have a potential for a new administration to come in into power.”

    In the calendar year 2021, the southern border had over two million encounters, according to data from Customs and Border Protection (CBP). That doesn’t include the number of “gotaways”—those who Border Patrol detects but doesn’t capture—but The Epoch Times has been told it was about 600,000 for 2021.

    Russ Vought in an interview with NTD’s “Capitol Report” broadcast on Feb. 12, 2022. (Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

    CBP has reported a 1,066 percent increase in fentanyl seized in south Texas ports during the fiscal year 2021.

    “This administration has an ideologically open-border policy. They refuse to execute the law,” Vought said.

    “We got to use these governors to be able to say: what is the maximum that the Constitution allows for them to do?”

    Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has repeatedly said that the border is closed, “do not come.”

    “We look back at the Constitution, say, what did the founders mean when they looked at an invasion. It wasn’t just foreign nation-states. It was bandits, gangs, large groups of people that it was hard to get a handle on from a security standpoint. And we’ve said that constitutes an invasion that the Constitution then says there are self-help provisions to allow them to defend their people and keep them safe,” Vought said.

    Vought said his organization called on the border governors late last year to exercise such authorities, and it’s the fruition of their work that triggered Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich to issue a legal opinion (pdf) last week stating that states have such authority.

    Vought founded a non-profit organization named the Center for Renewing America after he left office in 2021.

    “The responsibility is now on the governor of Arizona and the governor of Texas to be able to say: we’re going to articulate that legally; we have this responsibility as Commanders-in-Chief of our state to be able to give rules of engagement to our National Guards or the Department of Public Safety or the sheriffs and say, interdict and remove individuals back to Mexico, and to be able to stop the flow of illegal immigration as a result,” Vought said.

    Vought believed that governors have such authority, but he acknowledged that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey have been unwilling to do it so far.

    The two governors’ offices haven’t responded to a request for comment.

    Last week, when asked by 12News KPNX, Ducey tried to dodge the question first, then he responded, “I think you ought to read the opinion in full … It doesn’t even mention the National Guard.”

    However, Brnovich’s opinion did say the National Guard is the state’s militia, and the governor is “commander-in-chief.”

    Some analysts and attorneys have challenged Brnovich’s opinion.

    “The idea that he is representing the Founders’ view on this issue is totally incorrect. The Founders were quite clear that the invasion clause is, as James Madison put it, an operation of the military,” David Bier of the Cato Institute told 12News KPNX.

    “I think we’re winning this debate,” Vought told NTD. “even if Governor Doug Ducey does not do this in Arizona, the candidates who are running to replace him are committing themselves to this position.”

    At least one Republican gubernatorial candidate in Arizona, Kari Lake, called for an interstate compact that would declare the states are under “invasion” and secure the border. Lake is leading among Republican candidates for the primary in a January poll. Due to term limits, Ducey has served two terms and can’t run for reelection.

    Former President Donald Trump and Kari Lake, whom Trump is supporting in Arizona’s gubernatorial race, speak during a rally at the Canyon Moon Ranch festival grounds in Florence, Arizona, on Jan. 15, 2022. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

    “Our view is that come next year, this will happen in Arizona. And our view is if it happens in Arizona, it’s going to put massive pressure on Texas to do it. And then once those two states [do it], those are two of the three big areas for illegal immigration, that puts a lot of pressure on the other two states that are led by Democrat governors,” Vought said.

    “Our view is that over time, this is something that will have a domino effect.”

    The Epoch Times has contacted the Department of Homeland Security for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 17:45

  • China Sanctions Raytheon, Lockheed Over Taiwan Deal To "Safeguard Its Sovereignty"
    China Sanctions Raytheon, Lockheed Over Taiwan Deal To “Safeguard Its Sovereignty”

    The big wildcard in today’s dramatic escalation in tensions over east Ukraine, is how and when Beijing will react to Putin’s announcement recognizing the Donbass region as independent and immediately deploying “peacekeeping” forces to Donetsk and Lugansk.

    A hint as to what may be coming, came earlier on Monday when China said it would impose new sanctions on U.S. defense contractors Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin due to their arms sales to Taiwan, stepping up a feud with Washington over security and Beijing’s strategic ambitions.

    Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin announced the move at a daily press briefing, citing a newly passed Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law that took effect in 2021. It was in response to a $100 million deal approved by the US for maintenance of Taiwan’s missile defense systems by the two companies.

    “China once again urges the U.S. government and relevant parties to . . . stop arms sales to Taiwan and sever military ties with Taiwan,” Wang said.

    “China will continue to take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its sovereignty and security interests in accordance with the development of the situation,” he said without giving any details.

    Today’s decision follows China’s announcement in October 2020 it would impose unspecified sanctions on Lockheed Martin and Raytheon after the U.S. approved $1.8 billion in arms sales to Taiwan; Raytheon, maker of Pratt & Whitney jet engines, said at the time it would “remain committed” to the success of its ties to China’s civil aviation industry, while Lockheed said its presence in the country is limited.

    And while the West is united against Russian actions in the Donbas, just as it is united against a possible incursion by China in Taiwan, Russia’s stance on the matter is clear: hours before the Winter Olympics opened two weeks ago, Putin and Xi Jinping declared that they are backing each other over standoffs on Ukraine and Taiwan with a promise to collaborate more against the West.

    At the time, Russia voiced its support for China’s stance that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and opposition to any form of independence for the island; the announcement was promptly met by an angry response by Taiwan which condemned as “contemptible” the timing of China and Russia’s “no limits” partnership.

    So while Beijing has so far been silent in its response to the latest news out of the Kremlin, it would be surprising if China were to voice an opposition to Putin’s plan of action – which was almost certainly crafted with the tacit approval of Beijing – and implicitly side with the west, now that the two countries are clearly formalizing an anti-western axis.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 17:27

  • Ottawa Mayor Proposes To Sell Confiscated 'Freedom Convoy" Trucks
    Ottawa Mayor Proposes To Sell Confiscated ‘Freedom Convoy” Trucks

    Ottawa police put an end to the “Freedom Convoy” protest in the downtown district that lasted for three weeks. On Friday and Saturday, officers arrested demonstrators and seized their vehicles. Now Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson wants to sell those seized trucks and campers to recoup millions of dollars the city lost during the three weeks of gridlock. 

    On Sunday, Watson told Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) that trucks, campers, and other vehicles seized from the convoy should be sold off, claiming Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s emergency powers could give him authority to do so. 

    “Under the Emergencies Act, I’ve asked our solicitor and our city manager, ‘how can we keep the tow trucks and the campers and the vans and everything else that we’ve confiscated, and sell those pieces of equipment to help recoup some of the costs that our taxpayers are absorbing?'” Watson told state media. 

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    Ottawa police tweeted 79 vehicles in total were seized and towed to impound yards. 

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    City Treasurer Wendy Stephanson recently noted demonstrators cost the Canadian capital CAD 1 million ($785k) per day. “We should ding those people who have caused this chaos,” Watson said in a separate interview with CTV. 

    It’s unclear whether the mayor will follow through with his plant to sell the vehicles. There’s also no word if the vehicles at auction would even cover the $14 million cost of policing expenses. 

    Interim Police Chief Steve Bell told reporters that clearing out demonstrators over the weekend was “extremely expensive.” 

    “We’ve already talked to our federal and provincial partners about how, at the end of the day, we will look at having money provided to the police service for that. Those discussions are ongoing,” Bell said. “We continue to track our costs. Our partners continue to work with us to identify the costs of policing to actually manage this event and, at the culmination of it, we will be able to provide accurate figures.”

    Bell said on Saturday the “unlawful occupation is over.” He added on Sunday that security fences with “very heavy police presence” were placed around the downtown areas.

    The trucker convoy has yet to release a statement about their seized vehicles and what their response will be… One would assume they would lawyer up and use donated funds in an attempt to retrieve their vehicles. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 17:15

  • War Or Images Of War?
    War Or Images Of War?

    Authored by Edward Curtin via AntiWar.com,

    Experienced foreign policy analysts such as Ray McGovern, Scott Ritter, and Pepe Escobar, while agreeing that the Biden administration is clearly guilty of provoking Russia over Ukraine, are divided over whether it will lead to war. All agree that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine and that it is clearly justified in demanding safe borders by insisting US/NATO withdraw troops and missiles from the countries surrounding it, stop NATO’s “open door” policy, stop putting nuclear weapons in Europe, etc.

    Clearly such demands are consonant with the US’s own historical demands for safe borders, evidenced most clearly in the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 when the world nearly suffered a nuclear war over Soviet missiles in Cuba. And equally obvious is the fact that the American posture today is hypocritical in the extreme and can only be accepted by propagandists and those ignorant of history.

    Image: Associated Press

    The Biden administration must assume that most people are ignoramuses and that its obvious belligerence and blatant propaganda will pass as some sort of defense of freedom, even when the US engineered a Ukrainian coup d’état in 2014 in support of Neo-Nazis when Biden was President Obama’s vice-president. But that was nearly eight years ago, which is an eternity in a country of amnesiacs.

    Whether this US persistent aggression is a propaganda charade or not, it is a most dangerous game. In December 2021, Russia claimed that the US was preparing a false flag event to provoke a Russian response. This was dismissed or ignored by the western media as absurd. Recently, however, the Biden administration has been pounding the message that it is Russia that is preparing a false flag event to blame on Ukraine in order to justify a Russian invasion.

    The western press, led by The New York Times, CNN, The Guardian, and the Washington Post – stenographers for the CIA, British intelligence, and the Pentagon – have become more hysterical by the day pushing this lie without any evidence whatsoever. It is sardonically comical. If evidence doesn’t exist, it can be manufactured, such as weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, etc. It’s easy as pie. To call these media the Yellow Press is an understatement.

    When Russia accuses the US of using “information terrorism,” it is of course correct. For we are living in an MKULTRA mind control operation with multiple facets. Ukraine, Covid, economic warfare, etc. – a hydra-headed monster whose goal is total control of regular people, who are treated as morons incapable of reason and the most basic logic. Toward confirming and strengthening this premise, the media provide a daily menu of mixed and contradictory messages meant to confuse, confound, and mess with people’s sense of their own ability to understand the world.

    If the public is to be convinced that the Russians have started a war, it will be attempted not so much through words as through images, as Gustave Le Bon predicted long ago in his book, The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind. In analyzing the “crowd mind” in 1895, he was addressing the anxiety the middle class was feeling because of popular unrest. The fear of popular unrest, such as the truckers Freedom Convoy in Canada and the Yellow Vests in France, is today a major factor in the propaganda war waged by the elite press. Call it class warfare.

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    Le Bon argued that the crowd thinks in images, not words, and it is through images that the rulers can control them. Freud agreed with his basic premise that people in groups occupied an “hypnotic state,” while adding that this was also true for individuals who craved illusions. Pessimistic as it was, Le Bon’s point about the crowd thinking in images – “The image itself immediately calls up a series of other images, having no logical connection to the first” – was picked up by all the influential propagandists, including the American father of the euphemistically named “public relations,” Edward Bernays. Today it is all about images, still and moving ones.

    Thus, one can expect to see the media using photos and film to create an emotional response in the population to convince it that Russia, not the US is the villain in this standoff. Yet again, it may not be a standoff, for it is possible that the Biden administration is really intent on war because they have become completely untethered from reality and think such a war is winnable. Perhaps they think they can entice Russia to take their bait and do something that can be spun as an “invasion” of Ukraine. This would run counter to Russia’s long-standing, patient diplomatic efforts to resolve these matters and to convince the US/NATO that the unipolar era is over and now that it is a multipolar world there must be an end to the encircling of Russia with US/NATO troops and weapons.

    We shall see. I don’t know whether there will be a major war or not, but I know how it will be managed. I’ll give you six guesses, as does The New York Times with its newly acquired word game, Wordle.  The Grey Lady also knows the answer. It’s not “censor,” for that’s six not five letters and they’ve censored the words already. It’s not “slave,” for they have prohibited that word since some people might find it offensive or get the idea that censorship is used to create slaves to the lie. It is, as required, five letters and begins with the letter “I”.

    Try to picture it. It’s easy if you try.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 16:50

  • Oil Prices Will Be Above $100 For A "Prolonged Period"
    Oil Prices Will Be Above $100 For A “Prolonged Period”

    As Bloomberg’s Jake Lloyd-Smith wrote last night, oil markets are so bullish at present that forecasts for $100/bbl crude have become par for the course, which suggests that the threshold will be tested in 1H, “even if tensions over Ukraine cool,” which now appears improbably and is why $100 oil may come as soon as tomorrow.

    As the BBG reporter notes, “the three-digit-barrel forecast surfaced at least a year ago and used to turn heads given it was bold, and prices were way, way lower back then. It’s founded principally on the case that energy consumption returning to normal as the pandemic ebbs will underpin gains”.

    Goldman Sachs added its voice to the chorus not so long ago, when its chief commodity strategist and one of the closest-followed analysts on Wall Street, said he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now.

    “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie told Bloomberg TV in an interview last week. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

    Last week, JPMorgan echoed Goldman’s lament, when the bank’s global head of oil trading Jake Pashelinsky sent the following note around the bank’s trading desks (full note available to professional subs):

    I can’t stress enough how tight near term fundamentals are, we are running out of molecules and don’t have enough storage to bridge the gap to potentially looser 2h22 balances.

    We have Cushing modelled at going into refinery maintenance season near tank bottoms and getting almost no resupply

    this market will do anything to avoid running dry and the only real option in the near term is to price to demand destruction which is north of here.

    Then, as Lloyd-Smith notes, the latest riff on the theme comes from Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol Group, the boss of the world’s largest independent oil trader, who’d already flagged the possibility back in November. This is what Bloomberg reported overnight:

    Oil prices could be set for a “prolonged period” above $100 a barrel over the next six to nine months, with the world setting fresh demand records this year, said Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy.

    Crude already surged to within a few dollars of that level earlier this month, as the recovery in fuel use from the pandemic started to run into supply constraints. In an interview in London with Bloomberg television, the boss of the world’s largest independent oil trader said the market will get tighter, with daily consumption set to rise well above pre-Covid levels by the end of 2022.

    “The 100 million-barrel number is probably going to be exceeded this year,” Hardy said. “Demand is going to surge in the second half” if travel continues to return to normal.

    Even before the potential risk of Russian sanctions, which could chop off a portion of the country’s 7.5 million barrels of oil daily, energy supplies had been struggling to keep up with a robust economic recovery. Several OPEC+ members, plagued by under-investment and disruptions, aren’t able to revive all of the output they shut down in 2020. Many companies, from U.S. shale drillers to global supermajors, are focused on giving cash to shareholders instead of growing production.

    The result is a surge in oil prices that’s feeding an inflationary spike. The situation threatens to derail the global economic recovery and inflict a cost-of-living crisis on millions.

    “More crude is required,” Hardy said. With daily demand rising by the end of this year to 1 million or 2 million barrels a day above end-2019 levels, “the whole system is going to be fairly tight.”

    Now throw in the risk of some Russian oil being sanctioned off from global markets and one can see why so many fear that this time there will indeed be blood.

    And while we wait to see what the full Western response to Russian actions will be, Brent soared by more than $3 today and settled at $96.61. Expect it to briskly rise above $100 if Europe even so as hints that Russian energy output will be impacted by the upcoming sanctions.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 16:25

  • Ethereum Co-Founder Welcomes "Crypto Winter" To Flush Out Speculation, Says Canadian Tyranny Bolsters Need For Decentralization
    Ethereum Co-Founder Welcomes “Crypto Winter” To Flush Out Speculation, Says Canadian Tyranny Bolsters Need For Decentralization

    It has not been a good few months from the crypto world. After rampaging higher during the middle of last year, cryptocurrencies have broadly speaking dropped around 40-50% since their November highs, and have become more and more correlated with the traditional financial system as long-duration, hyper-growth companies have seen their share prices decimated by the realization that ‘this time is serious’ from The Fed on their policy-tightening plans.

    And while 98-year-old curmudgeons are busily saying cryptos are “like some venereal disease … I just regard it as beneath contempt,” the rest of the tech world is beavering away envisioning – and creating – web3 – the decentralized new internet.

    The current drawdown is painful for some, and prompts yet more pronouncements from the establishment that ‘cryptos are dead’, Bloomberg reports that Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of the Ethereum blockchain, says the digital-asset universe may actually benefit from the current retreat in coin prices that’s cast a chill on investors and is being referred to as another crypto winter.

    “The people who are deep into crypto, and especially building things, a lot of them welcome a bear market,” Buterin said during an interview with Bloomberg.

    “They welcome the bear market because when there are these long periods of prices moving up by huge amounts like it does — it does obviously make a lot of people happy — but it does also tend to invite a lot of very short-term speculative attention.”

    Buterin said in a recent statement that he believes Ethereum can become a world computer after becoming a more efficient base layer for applications, and now is the time for that to escalate.

    “The winters are the time when a lot of those applications fall away and you can see which projects are actually long-term sustainable, like both in their models and in their teams and their people.

    The 28-year-old crypto billionaire remains bullish on Ethereum and notes that the eventual convergence of Proof of Stake (PoS) and the Ethereum application layer is crucial.

    Yet Buterin, who said he’s “surprised” by how the market has moved since last year, isn’t sure whether crypto has entered another winter or the sector is just mirroring the volatility in broader markets.

    “It does feel like the crypto markets kind of flip the switch from being this niche group that’s controlled by a very niche group of participants and it’s fairly disconnected to traditional markets into something that behaves more and more like it is part of the mainstream financial markets,” he said from Denver on Feb. 12.

    Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital is reportedly accelerating its pace of hiring to capitalize on a boom of talent that is still shifting into digital assets, and as if right on cue, Buterin noted in a very recent interview, the Canadian government’s decision to invoke the Emergencies Act – in an attempt to restrict the flow of funds to truck drivers protesting the country’s COVID restrictions – show why cryptocurrencies exist.

    As cryptovib.com reports, in an interview held at the ETHDenver conference, Buterin, who grew up in Canada, described the government’s response to the protests as extreme, saying that cryptocurrencies offer a safeguard against such extremism:

    “If the government isn’t willing to enforce the law… [and] gives people a chance to defend themselves… and they just want to talk to the banks and basically cut people’s livelihoods without due process, that’s is an example of how decentralized technology exists to make this kind of extremism difficult.”

    Buterin says cryptocurrencies are not radical, but corrective, emphasizing the danger of using banks to stop protesters:

    “It’s not about being illegal. In a way, it’s about restoring the rule of law. Governments and police can still act legally and go after suspects “as usual” without commissioning financial intermediaries… The idea of ​​going after intermediaries and using intermediaries for all this is dangerous.”

    Coming full circle, back to Charlie Munger’s mumbling rant, he did note one thing that was drastically under-reported by the mainstream media…

    Munger says “inflation is a very serious subject. You can argue that it’s the way democracies die… If you overdo it, you can ruin your civilization, so it’s a long-range danger.”

    “The safe assumption for investors is that over the next 100 years, the [fiat] currency is going to zero… that’s my working hypothesis.”

    And in a not ironic way at all we suggest to Buffett’s boy-wonder: “crypto solves that.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 16:00

  • Europe, US Preparing To Impose Sanctions On Russia
    Europe, US Preparing To Impose Sanctions On Russia

    Now that Putin has officially recognized the separatists regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent, sovereign states, warning that from this moment onward, Ukraine must halt all military actions against Donbas, or whatever happens next will be on them and the West, it was only a matter of time before Europe (and the West) retaliated with progressively escalating sanctions.

    Sure enough, the ink wasn’t quite dry yet on Putin’s signature, when the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles tweeted that “the recognition of the two separatist territories in Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law, the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the Minsk agreements” adding that “The EU and its partners will react with unity, firmness and with determination in solidarity with Ukraine.”

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    Others chimed in, led by the Latvian foreign minister who said the EU must immediately impose sanctions on Russia after it recognized the separatist regions, while moments later the Polish prime minister said that Russia’s decision is an act of aggression on Ukraine, and that sanctions should be imposed immediately.

    In a kneejerk response, European Commission president von der Leyen confirmed that the union will react with sanctions against Russia’s recognition of independence of the Ukraine regions, which is a blatant violation of international law as well as the Minsk agreements.

    UK foreign minister Truss was also quick to note that Putin’s action signals the end of the Minsk process and violates the UN charter, noting that Russia has decided to choose confrontation over dialogue.

    NATO president Stoltenberg joined the chorus condemning Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of the Ukraine rebel regions.

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    Meanwhile, according to a report from WSJ’s Laurence Norman, “the actual EU sanctions situation re Russia is that consultations are going on at the top level of the EU institutions and there will be consultations with Washington and London on whether tonight should be trigger point for sanctions.”

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    Biden has also been looped in, with Ukraine president Zelensky stating that he has already spoken to the US president in a phone call that is said to have lasted 35 minutes. Some more details from Reuters on what the US response will be:

    • WHITE HOUSE SAYS PRESIDENT BIDEN WILL SOON ISSUE AN EXECUTIVE ORDER THAT WILL PROHIBIT NEW INVESTMENT, TRADE, AND FINANCING BY U.S. PERSONS TO, FROM, OR IN THE SO-CALLED DNR AND LNR REGIONS OF UKRAINE
    • WHITE HOUSE SAYS WE WILL ALSO SOON ANNOUNCE ADDITIONAL MEASURES RELATED TO TODAY’S BLATANT VIOLATION OF RUSSIA’S INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS
    • WHITE HOUSE SAYS THESE MEASURES ARE SEPARATE FROM AND WOULD BE IN ADDITION TO THE SWIFT AND SEVERE ECONOMIC MEASURES WE HAVE BEEN PREPARING IN COORDINATION WITH ALLIES IF FURTHER INVASION
    • WHITE HOUSE SAYS WE ARE CONTINUING TO CLOSELY CONSULT WITH ALLIES AND PARTNERS, INCLUDING UKRAINE, ON NEXT STEPS AND ON RUSSIA’S ONGOING ESCALATION ALONG THE BORDER WITH UKRAINE

    What is curious about the upcoming Biden EO is that he is punishing the separatist regions – which at least officially are part of Ukraine – effectively admitting with his punitive actions that they are now part of Russia. As for Biden, at least check he was speaking to Macron and Scholz:

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    What is most remakrable, is that the bickering within Europe on the proper response appears to have already begun, as the WSJ’s Norman explains:

    Let’s just back up a sec on where EU stands on #Russia sanctions. The question is not is there a serious sanctions package on the table if Russia invades Ukraine? Because the answer to that is clearly yes. The question is what’s the trigger? Invasion or recognition of Don/Luh?

    As of now, despite confusion spread earlier by @JosepBorrellF, seems that EU will apply targeted sanctions over those involved in the “recognition” decision. We don’t yet know if that will include Putin. BUT NONE OF THAT MEANS rest of sanctions package won’t be used if invasion.

    And to add to that, there is no consensus among member states yet on whether recognition is the correct big sanctions trigger. There is at least one country — Hungary — that argues (not necessarily inaccurately) that sanctions package was drawn up for invasion/incursion and we’re not at that point yet.

    And let’s all remember that even one member state could veto this move.

    So there’s lots of assessing going on about next steps, including with non-EU partners. Not clear where that ends up yet.

    Assuming Europe can eventually agree on a sanctions package, one key question is whether Putin will even be targeted:

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    And another big question is whether Europe – which is extremely reliant on Russian energy – will go so far as sanctioning Russian gas imports, ensuring a spike in energy prices in the coming days, and whether the West will seek to eject Russian from SWIFT, which will either bring Russia even closer to China or could become a bullish catalyst for cryptocurrencies.

    And while we wait for the Western unified response, we wonder what, if anything, China will say in response to Putin’s announcement and whether the Russian president acted without first pre-clearing his action with Beijing.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 15:30

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Feb 21

Today’s News 21st February 2022

  • The Next Step For The World Economic Forum
    The Next Step For The World Economic Forum

    Authored by Roger Koops via The Brownstone Institute,

    It has been obvious since early 2020 that there has been an organized cult outreach that has permeated the world as a whole. It’s possible that this formed out of a gigantic error, rooted in a sudden ignorance of cell biology and long experience of public health. It is also possible that a seasonal respiratory virus was deployed by some people as an opportunity to seize power for some other purpose. 

    Follow the money and influence trails and the latter conclusion is hard to dismiss. 

    The clues were there early. Even before the WHO declared a pandemic in March 2020 (at least several months behind the actual fact of a pandemic) and before any lockdowns, there were media blitzes talking about the “New Normal” and talk of the “Great Reset” (which was rebranded as “Build Back Better”). 

    Pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, and Astra-Zeneca were actively lobbying governments to buy their vaccines as early as February 2020, supposedly less than a month after the genetic sequence (or partial sequence) was made available by China. 

    As a person who spent his whole professional career in pharmaceutical and vaccine development, I found the whole concept of going from scratch to a ready-to-use vaccine in a few months simply preposterous. 

    Something did not add up.

    I knew of the names with which everyone has become familiar. Bill Gates, Neil Ferguson, Jeremy Farrar, Anthony Fauci, and others had either been lobbying for or pursuing the lockdown strategies for many years. But still, the scope of the actions seemed too large to even be explained by those names alone.

    So, the fundamental questions that I have been asking myself have been why and who? The “Why” seems to always come back to issues besides public health. Of course the “Who” had the obvious players such as the WHO, China, CDC, NIH/NIAID, and various governments but there seemed to be more behind it than that. These players have been connected to the “public health” aspect but that seemed to be only scratching the surface. 

    I am not an investigative journalist and I would never claim that role, but even I can do some simple internet searches and start to see patterns evolve. The searches that I have done have yielded some very interesting “coincidences.”

    If I give you the names of the following people – Biden, Trudeau, Ardern, Merkel, Macron, Draghi, Morrison, Xi Jinping – what do you think that they have in common? Yes, they are all pampered and stumble over themselves, but that is also not the connection.

    One can see very quickly that these names certainly connect to lockdown countries and individuals who have ignored their own laws and/or tried in some way to usurp them. But, there is more to it than that and I will give a hint by providing a link with each name.

    They are all associated with the World Economic Forum (WEF), a “nonprofit” private organization started (in 1971) and headed by Klaus “You will own nothing and be happy” Schwab and his family. This is a private organization that has no official bearing with any world governance body, despite the implication of the name. It could just as well have been called the “Church of Schwabies.” The WEF was the origin of the “Great Reset” and I would guess that it was the origin of “Build Back Better” (since most of the above names have used that term recently).

    If you think that the WEF membership ends with just leaders of countries, here are a few more names:

    Allow me to introduce more of the WEF by giving a list of names for the Board of Trustees. 

    • Al Gore, Former WP of the US

    • Mark Caney, UN Special Envoy for Climate Action

    • T. Shanmugaratnam, Seminar Minister Singapore

    • Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank

    • Ngozi Okonja-Iweala, Director General, WTO

    • Kristalian Georggieva, Managing Director, IMF

    • Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Minister of Canada

    • Laurence Fink, CEO, BlackRock 

    You can see a cross section of political and economic leaders on the board. The leader of the organization, that is the leader of the Board, is still Klaus Schwab. He has built an impressive array of followers.

    If you want to really see the extent of influence, go to the website and pick out the corporate name of your choice; there are many to choose from: Abbott Laboratories, Astra-Zeneca, Biogen, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Serum Institute of India, BASF, Mayo Clinic, Kaiser Permanente, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Blackrock, CISCO, Dell, Google, Huawei, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Zoom, Yahoo, Amazon, Airbus, Boeing, Honda, Rakuten, Walmart, UPS, Coca-Cola, UBER, Bank of China. Bank of America. Deutsche Bank, State Bank of India, Royal Bank of Canada, Lloyds Banking, JP Morgan-Chase, Equifax, Goldman-Sachs, Hong Kong Exchanges, Bloomberg, VISA, New York Times, Ontario (Canada) Teacher’s Pension Plan

    The extent of reach is huge even beyond the worldwide leader network. For example, we all know what Bill Gates has been doing with his wealth via the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). But, the Wellcome Trust is equal to the task. Who is the Director of the Wellcome Trust? One named Jeremy Farrar, of the United Kingdom SAGE and lockdown fame – arguably the architect of the US-UK lockdowns in 2020 – is closely associated with WEF. 

    Concerning the reach that can occur, let me give some examples from the BMGF alone, and it comes from the time that I spent in 2020 reading their extensive funding list.

    A few years ago, the BMGF awarded the Institute for Health Metric Evaluation (IHME) a ten-year, almost $280 million award. IHME (associated with the University of Washington in Seattle) was at the forefront of the computer modeling that was driving the lockdowns and the nonpharmaceutical Interventions during 2020. People have seen their name often in print or on MSNBC or CNN. 

    In 2019, IHME awarded the Editor of the Lancet (Dr. Richard Horton) a $100,000 award and described him as an “activist editor.” The Lancet, once considered one of the best medical journals, has been at the forefront of censoring opposing scientific viewpoints since 2020 and publishing “papers” that were not fit to be published. I never could understand what it meant to be an “activist” editor in a respected scientific/medical journal because, stupid me, I always thought that the first job of the editor was to be impartial. I guess I learned in 2020 how wrong I was.

    Of course, the Lancet is also heavily funded from pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer (also a member of the WEF). 

    But, the BMGF reach goes far beyond just IHME and these connections have been quite recognizable. Here are some examples of the organizations and moneys received during 2020 alone broken down by areas.

    Bill Gates has also invested heavily in Moderna and his investments have paid out nicely for him. The BMGF has also given close to $100 million to the Clinton Health Access Initiative.

    The questions now have to be asked: 

    • Is this some beginning of a controlled authoritarian society intertwined via the WEF? 

    • Has the Covid panic been staged to set the stage? Please note, I am not a “Covid Denier” since the virus is real. But, has a normal seasonal respiratory virus been used as an excuse to activate the web?

    The next questions, for those of us who at least pretend to live in “Democratic” societies, have to be:

    • Is this what you expected and/or want from the people you elect?  

    • How many people knew of the “Associations” of the people that they voted for? (I certainly did not know of the associations until I did the searches but maybe I am just out of touch)

    Can we anticipate their next moves? There may be some hints.

    The Next Move 

    Jeremy Farrar of The Wellcome Trust recently wrote an article for the WEF with the CEO of Novo Nordisk Foundation, Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen. It is a summary of a larger piece written for and published by the Boston Consulting Group. 

    In this article, they propose that the way to “fix” the problem of antibiotic resistant bacteria is via a subscription service. That is, you pay a fee and when you need an antibiotic, presumably an effective one will be available for you. 

    My guess is that they have the same philosophy for vaccines and that certainly seems to be the approach with Coronavirus. Keep paying for and taking boosters. 

    In view of this philosophy, the vaccine mandates make sense. Get society “addicted” to an intervention, effective or not, and then keep feeding them. This becomes especially effective if you can keep the fear going.

    This approach is so shortsighted, from a scientific viewpoint, it astounds me. But, like much of recent history, I think science has little to do with it. The goal is not scientifically founded but control founded. 

    After the discovery of penicillin almost one century ago, there were scientists who warned that antibiotic usage should be considered very carefully in practice because evolutionary pressures would lead to antibiotic resistant species of bacteria. At that time, they were considered to be rogue scientists; after all, didn’t we suddenly have a miracle cure for many deadly problems?

    From the time of discovery, it took over a decade before fermentation methods were developed to produce sufficient quantities of antibiotics to be practical. These methods allowed for the use of penicillin on the battlefield towards the end of WWII and undoubtedly saved many lives then and later in subsequent wars (Korea and Vietnam) by preventing serious infections resulting from wounds sustained during battle. 

    However, it did not take long before the medical establishment was handing out antibiotics like candy. I experienced this myself when I was a child in the 1960s. It seemed like every time we went to the doctor, no matter what the problem, I was given a series (not just one) of injections of penicillin. There were never any attempts to determine if I had a virus, bacteria, or even an allergy. The answer was: in with the needle. I cannot count how many times I was “jabbed” as a child.

    It didn’t take long before resistance species started to appear. The result was that more and more money was pumped into R&D for antibiotics. When I was in graduate school during the 1980s, one sure way to get some NIH funding was to tie the research into the “antibiotic” search. Antibiotics became big business. 

    We now have several classes of antibiotics that are used for specific cases. We have Aminoglycosides (Streptomycin, Neomycin, etc.), Beta-Lactams Cephalosporins (four generations including Cefadroxil-G1, Cefaclor-G2, Cefotaxime-G3, Cefepime-G4 , Beta-Lactams Penicillins (including Ampicillin, Amoxicillin, and Penicillin), Other Beta-Lactams (Meropenem), Fluoroquinolones (Levofloxacin, Gemifloxicin, etc.), Macrolides (Azithromycin, Clarithromycin, etc.), Sulfonamides (Sulfisoxazole, etc.), Tetracyclines, and others such as Clindamycin and Vancomycin (typically reserved for resistant bacteria). All in all, physicians have over 50 different choices for antibiotics.

    The most common place to encounter antibiotic resistant bacteria is in a hospital. Most people who get some sort of infection in the normal routine of life, like a sinus infection or skin infection, will not likely encounter an antibiotic resistant species. 

    Except there has been another source of the problem and that has been in the food supply. Antibiotics have become very popular with large scale meat production facilities of all types including beef, poultry, swine, and even fish. These include actual farms where the animals are raised as well as in the processing of the meat. The overuse of antibiotics in these industries has also produced resistant forms of bacteria.

    For example, in attempts to limit the bacteria e. coli, common to mammalians, antibiotics have been used and this has resulted in some antibiotic resistant forms of e. coli. An infection via e. coli (antibiotic resistant or not) can be avoided by proper cooking and handling of meats. However, sometimes that does not happen and there are e. coli outbreaks (also from improperly washed vegetables that may use contaminated irrigation water). 

    For most healthy people, experiencing e. coli (either resistant or not) is only a passing discomfort that includes intestinal cramps, diarrhea, and other GI complaints. Depending on the amount of contamination, a person may suffer for a day or two or for several days. 

    But, with some people, it can be serious or deadly (such as in elderly people in poor health and young children). If that occurs, then the presence of an antibiotic resistant form can be a serious matter. Presence of a non-resistant form can be treated more readily.

    A few years ago I had pneumonia; a relatively mild case. I was given a choice of in-patient treatment or out-patient and it was a no-brainer. If I wanted to make sure that my pneumonia could be handled by the normal course of antibiotics (I was given a quinolone), staying at home and away from the hospital was important. I knew that hospital-acquired pneumonia could be a much more serious situation. So, I stayed at home and easily recovered. That did not mean I was guaranteed getting a more serious resistant form in the hospital but I understood that the risk was much greater. 

    Producing more antibiotics and giving them on subscription to the users is not the answer. That will only lead to more resistant forms and there will be this continuing loop of antibiotic use. But, if the actual goal is societal addiction to antibiotics out of fear, just like addiction to universal Covid vaccines out of fear, then it makes sense. 

    Finding a few universal antibiotics that deal with the resistant forms is important and it is also important to use those sparingly and only as a last resort. In addition, better management of antibiotic use in our society would go a long way to attenuating the problem. 

    There is nothing particularly controversial about that observation. It was accepted by nearly every responsible health professional only two years ago. But we live now in different times of extreme experimentation, such as the deployment of world-wide lockdowns for a virus that had a highly focused impact, with catastrophic results for the world. 

    It was the WEF on March 21, 2020 that assured us “lockdowns can halt the spread of Covid-19.” Today that article, never pulled much less repudiated, stands as probably the most ridiculous and destructive suggestion and prediction of the 21st century. And yet, the WEF is still at it, suggesting that same year that at least lockdowns reduced carbon emissions. 

    We can easily predict that the WEF’s call for a universal and mandated subscription plan for antibiotics – pushed with the overt intention of shoring up financial capitalization of major drug manufacturers – will meet the same fate: poor health outcomes, more power to entrenched elites, and ever less liberty for the people. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 00:05

  • Trump's "Truth Social" Platform Set For President's Day Release In Apple App Store
    Trump’s “Truth Social” Platform Set For President’s Day Release In Apple App Store

    More than a year has passed since President Donald Trump was officially banned from Twitter, YouTube and Facebook following the J6 riot.

    But the time for his triumphant return to the political conversation has arrived. After months of building “buzz” and interest, President Trump’s new “Truth Social” platform is expected to launch in the Apple app store Monday,  coinciding with the President’s Day holiday, according to a statement from the company’s Chief Product Officer, Billy B. 

    Comments about the Apple app store release from the “Truth Social” executive were shared on the platform’s beta product Sunday, according to Reuters.

    In a series of posts late on Friday, a verified account for the network’s chief product officer, listed as Billy B., answered questions on the app from people invited to use it during its test phase. One user asked him when the app, which has been available this week for beta testers, would be released to the public, according to screenshots viewed by Reuters.

    “We’re currently set for release in the Apple App store for Monday Feb. 21,” the executive responded.

    News and hints about Trump’s position on the network have been arriving in a steady stream for weeks. On Feb. 15, Trump’s eldest son Donald Jr. posted on a screenshot of his father’s verified @realDonaldTrump Truth Social account on Twitter. The post included one message uploaded to his father’s Truth Social account on Feb. 14 assuring his audience:  “Get Ready! Your favorite President will see you soon!”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Led by former Republican Rep. Devin Nunes, Trump Media & Technology Group – the company responsible for the app – certainly has competition in the area of social media platforms that see themselves as champions of open expression. Some of their bigger rivals include Gettr, Gab, Rumble and Parler. 

    “There’s excitement on our platform right now and it’s inspirational. It’s honestly very moving to me to see people on the platform who have been canceled,” Nunes said, before explaining that this week the app would roll out to iPhone users. 

    Asked if “Truth Social” would be “beholden to big tech”, Nunes responded by insisting that they wouldn’t censor anything: “people just want to be left alone…they feel like they’re free.”

    He also clarified that following the app store launch, the product would likely be “fully operational” by the end of March. Reuters affirmed that the app had just been updated to version 1.0, after having been at version 0.9 as recently as Wednesday. 

    Readers can watch the full Nunes interview below. His comments about “Truth Social” begin at around the 8-minute mark.

    https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6298226709001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

    On Friday, Nunes was on the app urging users to follow more accounts, share photos and videos and participate in conversations, in an apparent attempt to drum up activity, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

    When asked about features of the app, Nunes said that users wouldn’t have the ability to edit their posts, which will be called “truths” – at least, “not yet”. The next significant feature to be released on the platform would be direct messages, or DMs, between users, the executive wrote.

    The SPAC that TMTG will be merging with to finalize its hurried public listing is called DWAC. After the deal, it stands to receive $293M in cash that DWAC holds in a trust, assuming no DWAC shareholder redeems their shares, TMTG said in an Oct. 21 press release. Additionally, in December TMTG raised $1 billion of committed financing from private investors. Unsurprisingly, federal regulators from the the SEC have already revealed that they’re looking into the SPAC’s financing for evidence of anything suspicious. 

    Because of this, they say the deal is likely “months away” from closing. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 23:30

  • Limits To Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer
    Limits To Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer

    Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World,

    We have been told that intermittent electricity from wind and solar, perhaps along with hydroelectric generation (hydro), can be the basis of a green economy. Things are increasingly not working out as planned, however. Natural gas or coal used for balancing the intermittent output of renewables is increasingly high-priced or not available. It is becoming clear that modelers who encouraged the view that a smooth transition to wind, solar, and hydro is possible have missed some important points.

    Let’s look at some of the issues:

    [1] It is becoming clear that intermittent wind and solar cannot be counted on to provide adequate electricity supply when the electrical distribution system needs them.

    Early modelers did not expect that the variability of wind and solar would be a huge problem. They seemed to believe that, with the use of enough intermittent renewables, their variability would cancel out. Alternatively, long transmission lines would allow enough transfer of electricity between locations to largely offset variability.

    In practice, variability is still a major problem. For example, in the third quarter of 2021, weak winds were a significant contributor to Europe’s power crunch. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of installed capacity during this period, compared with an average of 20% to 26% in previous years. No one had planned for this kind of three-month shortfall.

    In 2021, China experienced dry, windless weather so that both its generation from wind and hydro were low. The country found it needed to use rolling blackouts to deal with the situation. This led to traffic lights failing and many families needing to eat candle-lit dinners.

    In Europe, with low electricity supply, Kosovo has needed to use rolling blackouts. There is real concern that the need for rolling blackouts will spread to other parts of Europe, as well, either later this winter, or in a future winter. Winters are of special concern because, then, solar energy is low while heating needs are high.

    [2] Adequate storage for electricity is not feasible in any reasonable timeframe. This means that if cold countries are not to “freeze in the dark” during winter, fossil fuel backup is likely to be needed for many years in the future.

    One workaround for electricity variability is storage. A recent Reuters’ article is titled, Weak winds worsened Europe’s power crunch; utilities need better storage. The article quotes Matthew Jones, lead analyst for EU Power, as saying that low or zero-emissions backup-capacity is “still more than a decade away from being available at scale.” Thus, having huge batteries or hydrogen storage at the scale needed for months of storage is not something that can reasonably be created now or in the next several years.

    Today, the amount of electricity storage that is available can be measured in minutes or hours. It is mostly used to buffer short-term changes, such as the wind temporarily ceasing to blow or the rapid transition created when the sun sets and citizens are in the midst of cooking dinner. What is needed is the capacity for multiple months of electricity storage. Such storage would require an amazingly large quantity of materials to produce. Needless to say, if such storage were included, the cost of the overall electrical system would be substantially higher than we have been led to believe. All major types of cost analyses (including the levelized cost of energy, energy return on energy invested, and energy payback period) leave out the need for storage (both short- and long-term) if balancing with other electricity production is not available.

    If no solution to inadequate electricity supply can be found, then demand must be reduced by one means or another. One approach is to close businesses or schools. Another approach is rolling blackouts. A third approach is to permit astronomically high electricity prices, squeezing out some buyers of electricity. A fourth balancing approach is to introduce recession, perhaps by raising interest rates; recessions cut back on demand for all non-essential goods and services. Recessions tend to lead to significant job losses, besides cutting back on electricity demand. None of these things are attractive options.

    [3] After many years of subsidies and mandates, today’s green electricity is only a tiny fraction of what is needed to keep our current economy operating.

    Early modelers did not consider how difficult it would be to ramp up green electricity.

    Compared to today’s total world energy consumption (electricity and non-electricity energy, such as oil, combined), wind and solar are truly insignificant. In 2020, wind accounted for 3% of the world’s total energy consumption and solar amounted to 1% of total energy, using BP’s generous way of counting electricity, relative to other types of energy. Thus, the combination of wind and solar produced 4% of world energy in 2020.

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) uses a less generous approach for crediting electricity; it only gives credit for the heat energy supplied by the renewable energy. The IEA does not show wind and solar separately in its recent reports. Instead, it shows an “Other” category that includes more than wind and solar. This broader category amounted to 2% of the world’s energy supply in 2018.

    Hydro is another type of green electricity that is sometimes considered alongside wind and solar. It is quite a bit larger than either wind or solar; it amounted to 7% of the world’s energy supply in 2020. Taken together, hydro + wind + solar amounted to 11% of the world’s energy supply in 2020, using BP’s methodology. This still isn’t much of the world’s total energy consumption.

    Of course, different parts of the world vary with respect to the share of energy created using wind, hydro and solar. Figure 1 shows the percentage of total energy generated by these three renewables combined.

    Figure 1. Wind, solar and hydro as a share of total energy consumption for selected parts of the world, based on BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy data. Russia+ is Russia and its affiliates in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

    As expected, the world average is about 11%. The European Union is highest at 14%; Russia+ (that is, Russia and its Affiliates, which is equivalent to the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States) is lowest at 6.5%.

    [4] Even as a percentage of electricity, rather than total energy, renewables still comprised a relatively small share in 2020.

    Wind and solar don’t replace “dispatchable” generation; they provide some temporary electricity supply, but they tend to make the overall electrical system more difficult to operate because of the variability introduced. Renewables are available only part of the time, so other types of electricity suppliers are still needed when supply temporarily isn’t available. In a sense, all they are replacing is part of the fuel required to make electricity. The fixed costs of backup electricity providers are not adequately compensated, nor are the costs of the added complexity introduced into the system.

    If analysts give wind and solar full credit for replacing electricity, as BP does, then, on a world basis, wind electricity replaced 6% of total electricity consumed in 2020. Solar electricity replaced 3% of total electricity provided, and hydro replaced 16% of world electricity. On a combined basis, wind and solar provided 9% of world electricity. With hydro included as well, these renewables amounted to 25% of world electricity supply in 2020.

    The share of electricity supply provided by wind, solar and hydro varies across the world, as shown in Figure 2. The European Union is highest at 32%; Japan is lowest at 17%.

    Figure 2. Wind, solar and hydro as a share of total electricity supply for selected parts of the world, based on BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy data.

    The “All Other” grouping of countries shown in Figure 2 includes many of the poorer countries. These countries often use quite a bit of hydro, even though the availability of hydro tends to fluctuate a great deal, depending on weather conditions. If an area is subject to wet seasons and dry seasons, there is likely to be very limited electricity supply during the dry season. In areas with snow melt, very large supplies are often available in spring, and much smaller supplies during the rest of the year.

    Thus, while hydro is often thought of as being a reliable source of power, this may or may not be the case. Like wind and solar, hydro often needs fossil fuel back-up if industry is to be able to depend upon having electricity year-around.

    [5] Most modelers have not understood that reserve to production ratios greatly overstate the amount of fossil fuels and other minerals that the economy will be able to extract.

    Most modelers have not understood how the world economy operates. They have assumed that as long as we have the technical capability to extract fossil fuels or other minerals, we will be able to do so. A popular way of looking at resource availability is as reserve to production ratios. These ratios represent an estimate of how many years of production might continue, if extraction is continued at the same rate as in the most recent year, considering known resources and current technology.

    Figure 3. Reserve to production ratios for several minerals, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    A common belief is that these ratios understate how much of each resource is available, partly because technology keeps improving and partly because exploration for these minerals may not be complete.

    In fact, this model of future resource availability greatly overstates the quantity of future resources that can actually be extracted. The problem is that the world economy tends to run short of many types of resources simultaneously. For example, World Bank Commodities Price Data shows that prices were high in January 2022 for many materials, including fossil fuels, fertilizers, aluminum, copper, iron ore, nickel, tin and zinc. Even though prices have run up very high, this is not an indication that producers will be able to use these high prices to extract more of these required materials.

    In order to produce more fossil fuels or more minerals of any kind, preparation must be started years in advance. New oil wells must be built in suitable locations; new mines for copper or lithium or rare earth minerals must be built; workers must be trained for all of these areas. High prices for many commodities can be a sign of temporarily high demand, or it can be a sign that something is seriously wrong with the system. There is no way the system can ramp up needed production in a huge number of areas at once. Supply lines will break. Recession is likely to set in.

    The problem underlying the recent spike in prices seems to be “diminishing returns.” Such diminishing returns affect nearly all parts of the economy simultaneously. For each type of mineral, miners produced the easiest-t0-extract materials first. They later moved on to deeper oil wells and minerals from lower grade ores. Pollution gradually grew, so, it too, needed greater investment. At the same time, world population has been growing, so the economy has required more food, fresh water and goods of many kinds; these, too, require the investment of resources of many kinds.

    The problem that eventually hits the economy is that it cannot maintain economic growth. Too many areas of the economy require investment, simultaneously, because diminishing returns keeps ramping up investment needs. This investment is not simply a financial investment; it is an investment of physical resources (oil, coal, steel, copper, etc.) and an investment of people’s time.

    The way in which the economy would run short of investment materials was simulated in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, by Donella Meadows and others. The book gave the results of a number of simulations regarding how the world economy would behave in the future. Virtually all of the simulations indicated that eventually the economy would reach limits to growth. A major problem was that too large a share of the output of the economy was needed for reinvestment, leaving too little for other uses. In the base model, such limits to growth came about now, in the middle of the first half of the 21st century. The economy would stop growing and gradually start to collapse.

    [6] The world economy seems already to be reaching limits on the extraction of coal and natural gas to be used for balancing electricity provided by intermittent renewables.

    Coal and natural gas are expensive to transport so, if they are exported, they primarily tend to be exported to countries that are nearby. For this reason, my analysis groups together exports and imports into large regions where trade is most likely to take place.

    If we analyze natural gas imports by part of the world, two regions stand out as having the most out-of-region natural gas imports: Europe and Asia-Pacific. Figure 4 shows that Europe’s out-of region natural gas imports reached peaks in 2007 and 2010, after which they dipped. In recent years, Europe’s imports have barely surpassed their prior peaks. Asia-Pacific’s out-of-region imports have shown a far more consistent growth long-term growth pattern.

    Figure 4. Natural gas imports in exajoules per year, based on data from on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    The reason why Asia-Pacific’s imports have been growing is to support its growing manufacturing output. Manufacturing output has increasingly been shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, partly because this region can perform this manufacturing cheaply, and partly because rich countries have wanted to reduce their carbon footprint. Moving heavy industry abroad reduces a country’s reported CO2 generation, even if the manufactured items are imported as finished products.

    Figure 5 shows that Europe’s own natural gas supply has been falling. This is a major reason for its import requirements from outside the region.

    Figure 5. Europe’s natural gas production, consumption and imports based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    Figure 6, below, shows that Asia-Pacific’s total energy consumption per capita has been growing. The new manufacturing jobs transferred to this region have raised standards of living for many workers. Europe, on the other hand, has reduced its local manufacturing. Its people have tended to get poorer, in terms of energy consumption per capita. Service jobs necessitated by reduced energy consumption per capita have tended to pay less well than the manufacturing jobs they have replaced.

    Figure 6. Energy consumption per capita for Europe compared to Asia-Pacific, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    Europe has recently been having conflicts with Russia over natural gas. The world seems to be reaching a situation where there are not enough natural gas exports to go around. The Asia-Pacific Region (or at least the more productive parts of the Asia-Pacific Region) seems to be able to outbid Europe, when local natural gas supply is inadequate.

    Figure 7, below, gives a rough idea of the quantity of exports available from Russia+ compared to Europe’s import needs. (In this chart, I compare Europe’s total natural gas imports (including pipeline imports from North Africa and LNG from North Africa) with the natural gas exports of Russia+ (to all nations, not just to Europe, including both by pipeline and as LNG)). On this rough basis, we find that Europe’s natural gas imports are greater than the total natural gas exports of Russia+.

    Figure 7. Total natural gas imports of Europe compared to total natural gas exports from Russia+, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    Europe is already encountering multiple natural gas problems. Its supply from North Africa is not as reliable as in the past. The countries of Russia+ are not delivering as much natural gas as Europe would like, and spot prices, especially, seem to be way too high. There are also pipeline disagreements. Bloomberg reports that Russia will be increasing its exports to China in future years. Unless Russia finds a way to ramp up its gas supplies, greater exports to China are likely to leave less natural gas for Russia to export to Europe in the years ahead.

    If we look around the world to see what other sources of natural gas exports are available for Europe, we discover that the choices are limited.

    Figure 8. Historical natural gas exports based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Rest of the world includes Africa, the Middle East and the Americas excluding the United States.

    The United States is presented as a possible choice for increasing natural gas imports to Europe. One of the catches with growing natural gas exports from the United States is the fact that historically, the US has been a natural gas importer; it is not clear how much exports can rise above the 2022 level. Furthermore, part of US natural gas is co-produced with oil from shale. Oil from shale is not likely to be growing much in future years; in fact, it very likely will be declining because of depleted wells. This may limit the US’s growth in natural gas supplies available for export.

    The Rest of the World category on Figure 8 doesn’t seem to have many possibilities for growth in imports to Europe, either, because total exports have been drifting downward. (The Rest of the World includes Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas excluding the United States.) There are many reports of countries, including Iraq and Turkey, not being able to buy the natural gas they would like. There doesn’t seem to be enough natural gas on the market now. There are few reports of supplies ramping up to replace depleted supplies.

    With respect to coal, the situation in Europe is only a little different. Figure 9 shows that Europe’s coal supply has been depleting, and imports have not been able to offset this depletion.

    Figure 9. Europe’s coal production, consumption and imports, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    If a person looks around the world for places to get more imports for Europe, there aren’t many choices.

    Figure 10. Coal production by part of the world, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    Figure 10 shows that most coal production is in the Asia-Pacific region. With China, India and Japan located in the Asia-Pacific Region, and high transit costs, this coal is unlikely to leave the region. The United States has been a big coal producer, but its production has declined in recent years. It still exports a relatively small amount of coal. The most likely possibility for increased coal imports would be from Russia and its affiliates. Here, too, Europe is likely to need to outbid China to purchase this coal. A better relationship with Russia would be helpful, as well.

    Figure 10 shows that world coal production has been essentially flat since 2011. A country will only export coal that it doesn’t need itself. Thus, a shortfall in export capability is an early warning sign of inadequate overall supply. With the economies of many Asia-Pacific countries still growing rapidly, demand for coal imports is likely to grow for this region. While modelers may think that there is close to 150 years’ worth of coal supply available, real-world experience suggests that coal limits are being reached already.

    [7] Conclusion. Modelers and leaders everywhere have had a basic misunderstanding of how the economy operates and what limits we are up against. This misunderstanding has allowed scientists to put together models that are far from the situation we are actually facing.

    The economy operates as an integrated whole, just as the body of a human being operates as an integrated whole, rather than a collection of cells of different types. This is something most modelers don’t understand, and their techniques are not equipped to deal with.

    The economy is facing many limits simultaneously: too many people, too much pollution, too few fish in the ocean, more difficult to extract fossil fuels and many others. The way these limits play out seems to be the way the models in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, suggest: They play out on a combined basis. The real problem is that diminishing returns leads to huge investment needs in many areas simultaneously. One or two of these investment needs could perhaps be handled, but not all of them, all at once.

    The approach of modelers, practically everywhere, is to break down a problem into small parts, and assume that each part of the problem can be solved independently. Thus, those concerned about “Peak Oil” have been concerned about running out of oil. Finding substitutes seemed to be important. Those concerned about climate change were convinced that huge amounts of fossil fuels remain to be extracted, even more than the amounts indicated by reserve to production ratios. Their concern was finding substitutes for the huge amount of fossil fuels that they believed remained to be extracted, which could cause climate change.

    Politicians could see that there was some sort of huge problem on the horizon, but they didn’t understand what it was. The idea of substituting renewables for fossil fuels seemed to be a solution that would make both Peak Oilers and those concerned about climate change happy. Models based on the substitution of renewables for fossil fuels seemed to please almost everyone. The renewables approach suggested that we have a very long timeframe to deal with, putting the problem off, as long into the future as possible.

    Today, we are starting to see that renewables are not able to live up to the promise modelers hoped they would have. Exactly how the situation will play out is not entirely clear, but it looks like we will all have front row seats in finding out.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 22:55

  • "Suisse Secrets": Massive Leak Of Credit Suisse Bank Records Exposes $100 Billion Held By 18,000 Spies, Strongmen And Criminals
    “Suisse Secrets”: Massive Leak Of Credit Suisse Bank Records Exposes $100 Billion Held By 18,000 Spies, Strongmen And Criminals

    Credit Suisse has had an extremely difficult year already, but on Sunday, dozens of respected newspapers and other media organizations from around the globe dealt Switzerland’s second-largest bank by assets a major blow: releasing reporting on leaked banking records involving 18,000 clients considered “sensitive” for their ties to corrupt government officials, Middle Eastern autocrats or foreign spymasters. 

    “Suisse Secrets” – as the leak is being called – was coordinated by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, the same organization that spearheaded “the Pandora Papers” and the “Pegasus Project”, two earlier major leaks involving topics ranging from official corruption to illicit software-enabled surveillance.  Like “Pandora” and the “Panama Papers” leaks, the records exposed in “Suisse Secrets” are mostly financial data, like bank account information, as well as evidence of internal red flags that were routinely raised – and routinely ignored. 

    The statistics from the leak are staggering: 18K accounts, $100 billion in aggregate assets, some of the accounts dated back to the 1940s, but even the most recent details date to the mid-2010s, allowing Credit Suisse’s PR team enough plausible deniability to insist that most of the accounts exposed in the leak have already been closed. 

    Clients identified in the leak included easily identifiable leaders like Jordan’s King Abdullah II as well as shadowy Pakistani intelligence chief General Akhtar Abdur Rahman Khan.

    Before we break down the findings of the report, it’s worth noting that a CS spokeswoman said the bank “strongly rejects” the reports’ characterization of the bank’s “business practices.” 

    Candice Sun, a spokeswoman for the bank, said in a statement that “Credit Suisse strongly rejects the allegations and inferences about the bank’s purported business practices.” She said many of the accounts in the leak date back decades to “a time where laws, practices and expectations of financial institutions were very different from where they are now.”

    Ms. Sun said that while Credit Suisse can’t comment on specific clients, many of the accounts identified in the leaked database have already been closed. “Of the remaining active accounts, we are comfortable that appropriate due diligence, reviews and other control related steps were taken, including pending account closures,” she said.

    Ms. Sun added that the leak appears to be part of “a concerted effort to discredit the bank and the Swiss financial marketplace, which has undergone significant changes over the last several years.”

    Switzerland’s banking secrecy laws have long made it a haven for stashing ill-gotten gains. Back in 2014, however, US authorities started cracking down on American customers of Swiss banks, and eventually, CS struck a settlement where it paid billions in restitution. But the DoJ and Senate Finance Committee are investigating whether Americans continue to hold unregistered assets at the bank. Meanwhile, it recently went on trial for helping a Bulgarian wrestling star/cocaine trafficker launder millions. 

    Without further ado, the following are some of the individuals named in the leak: 

    • Nervis Villalobos – a former Venezuelan vice minister of energy, CS opened an account for Villalobos in 2011 into which he deposited millions despite red flags from compliance that the money had resulted from public corruption.
    • Alaa and Gamal Mubarak – the sons of former Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak, Alaa and Gamal held six accounts at various points including one containing nearly $200 million in 2003. 
    • King Abdullah II of Jordan – one of the few officials in the leaks who remains in power, had six accounts, including one whose balance exceeded $224 million.
    • General Akhtar Abdur Rahman Khan – A Pakistani intelligence chief from the 1980s who helped funnel US arms and money to the mujahideen soldiers fighting an insurgency against the Soviet-backed government in Afghanistan and the Soviet military. Interestingly, in 1985, the same year President Ronald Reagan called for more oversight of the aid going into Afghanistan, an account was opened in the name of three of General Khan’s sons. Years later, the account would grow to hold $3.7 million.
    • Saad Kheir – the head of Jordan’s intelligence agency, opened an account in 2003, the same year the US invaded Iraq, that would eventually hold $21.6 million.
    • Billy Rautenbach – a notorious mining magnate who was eventually sanctioned by the US for his role in financing the violent outbursts around Zimbabwe’s 2008 election. The accounts were opened weeks before a mining deal funneled $100 million to the government of former Zimbabwean strongman Robert Mugabe and his government, according to the OCCRP.
    • Rza and Seymur Talibov – the sons of an Azerbaijani strongman received roughly $20 million in suspicious wire transfers. 
    • Rodoljub Radulović – a.k.a. Misha Banana, the Balkan gangster and drug smuggler controlled two accounts at Credit Suisse, with one holding almost 3.4 million Swiss francs.

    Readers looking for a more complete breakdown can find one on the OCCRP’s site here. 

    Of the dozens of news organizations who were provided documents from the “Suisse Secrets” leak, none were Swiss. This is by design since Switzerland has strict laws barring journalists from writing about leaked bank records. 

    Those bank secrecy laws cut both ways. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 22:20

  • Extreme Backwardation Suggests One Of The Tightest Oil Markets Ever
    Extreme Backwardation Suggests One Of The Tightest Oil Markets Ever

    Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

    • Oil futures are seeing the steepest backwardation in history, suggesting we are witnessing one of the tightest oil markets ever.

    • While oil prices fell on Thursday morning due to rumors of an Iran nuclear deal coming to fruition, the near-term oil market will remain very tight.

    • The price of Dated Brent physical cargoes traded in the North Sea hit $100.80 per barrel on Wednesday, the first time Brent exceeded $100 since 2014.

    The oil futures curve is in such an extreme backwardation that it suggests the oil market is very tight right now, despite Thursday’s move lower after Iran said that a possible nuclear deal was “closer than ever.”

    Brent oil prices fell early on Thursday to below the $93 mark, after Iran’s main negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, tweeted late on Wednesday:

    “After weeks of intensive talks, we are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though. Our negotiating partners need to be realistic, avoid intransigence and heed lessons of past 4yrs. Time for their serious decisions.”

    In case a deal is indeed reached – and the U.S. has said that the window of reaching an agreement is closing fast – Iran could return some 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) to the market within several months after the U.S. lifts sanctions on its oil exports.

    This, of course, is still in the realm of possibility, but the immediate signals reflected in the futures prices are shouting that the market has rarely been so tight.

    Some of the futures spreads are in their steepest backwardations in history, according to Bloomberg.

    The price of Dated Brent, physical cargoes traded in the North Sea, hit $100.80 per barrel on Wednesday. That was the first time Dated Brent has exceeded the $100 a barrel threshold since September 2014. The jump in physical cargo prices suggests that traders are willing to pay $100 per barrel for actual crude supply right now in a sign of a very tight market, Bloomberg notes.

    “The only way to balance this market over the medium term remains high oil prices to slow demand growth,” analysts at Energy Aspects wrote in a note to clients cited by Bloomberg.

    Meanwhile, crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma—the designated delivery point for WTI Crude oil futures contracts—dropped by another 1.9 million barrels, to stand at just 25.8 million barrels as of February 11—the lowest level since 2018. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 21:45

  • "The Wait Is Over" – 'Fortress Australia' Reopens To Tourists After Nearly 2 Years
    “The Wait Is Over” – ‘Fortress Australia’ Reopens To Tourists After Nearly 2 Years

    Despite grappling with a new COVID outbreak in remote Western Australia, where authorities recorded a record 257 new COVID cases on Saturday and another 200+ on Sunday, the Australian government is finally raising its “drawbridge” on Monday as it allows the first tourists to enter the county after two years of stringent travel restrictions.

    As Reuters quips early in its report on the occasion, Australia’s notoriously strict policy earned it the nickname “Fortress Australia.” And while the “drawbridge” approach helped its eradicate COVID for a time, case numbers finally surged to record highs during the global omicron wave, which hasn’t quite yet subsided. PM Scott Morrison told a group of reporters assembled that the “wait is over”.

    According to the latest national case numbers, the 7-day average is at the very least trending lower, having just broken below 25K/day. Deaths have fallen to just under 50/day, on average.

    Souce: WorldoMeter

    All this means Australia’s death rate is just 19.37 per 100,000, one of the lowest in the world.

    Australia’s draconian immigration policy was brought to national attention just last month when tennis superstar Novak Djokovic was eventually deported after being detained for nearly a week (before being freed by a judge) despite having secured an official exemption from the country’s stringent vaccination mandate.

    The big question now is whether Australia’s tourism industry, which was growing nearly 2x as fast as GDP before the pandemic, will recover (real tourism GDP expanded 3.4% in 2018-2019, compared with overall GDP growth of 1.9% during the same period.

    Unvaccinated tourists entering the country will still be required to quarantine, the government said. Reuters reports:

    “Fully vaccinated tourists will not need to quarantine,” but those who have not received two doses “will require a travel exemption to enter the country and will be subject to state and territory quarantine requirements.”

    Australians are among the most heavily vaccinated people in the world. Roughly 94% of the over-16 population is now at least double-jabbed, and many have received a booster dose.

    As protests and public backlash intensified, Australia finally started rolling back its restrictions in November, first allowing Australians to travel in and out, then admitting international students and some workers. Now, travelers for both leisure and business will be allowed to enter the country more or less freely – provided they have the proper “documentation”, of course.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 21:10

  • Futures Surge After Putin Accepts Macron Proposal For Ukraine Summit With Biden
    Futures Surge After Putin Accepts Macron Proposal For Ukraine Summit With Biden

    After a barrage of pro-war headlines earlier on Sunday…

    • U.S. WARNS THAT RUSSIA MAY TARGET MULTIPLE CITIES IN UKRAINE

    … and this…

    • ALL INDICATIONS RUSSIA ‘ON BRINK’ OF INVADING UKRAINE: BLINKEN

    … and a tweet just before 8pm ET from NBC’s Howard Fineman, quoting CBS “superb reporter” David Martin that “Putin has just ordered Russian forces to invade Ukraine in its entirety, with reserve units following to run an occupation”…

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    … futures – which had opened down substantially from Friday’s already depressed level – soared just before 800pm ET (almost exactly as the CBS tweet hit), after reports that the ongoing talks to halt escalation in Ukraine were successful, and that late on Sunday French President Emmanuel Macron has convinced President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet at a summit to discuss the security situation in Ukraine. Here’s more from Reuters:

    US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine, the office of French President Emmanuel Macron said, provided Russia does not invade its neighbor.

    In a statement released early Monday, the Elysee Palace said Macron had pitched both leaders on a summit over “security and strategic stability in Europe.”

    “Presidents Biden and Putin have both accepted the principle of such a summit,” the statement said, before adding that such a meeting would be impossible if Russia invaded Ukraine as Western nations fear it plans to.

    The White House did not immediately return a message seeking comment.

    The announcement – released after a volley of phone calls between Macron and leaders on both sides of the Atlantic – comes after a week of heightened tensions spurred by Russia’s military buildup up and down the Ukrainian border.

    Naturally, Biden – who is likely asleep by now – is scrambling to take full credit for the Macron-brokered summit, and the White House confirmed that President Biden has agreed to the meeting with Vladimir Putin, brokered by France, if Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, while adding the usual disclaimer that “Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assaults on Ukraine very soon.“

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    Would the US really be agreeing to a summit like this if it honestly expected Russia to invade Ukraine? Obviously, the summit will be moot if a large-scale incursion were to occur, but it’s not like algos can read nuance. 

    As for the broken record that an invasion is imminent, even the president of El Salvador is now openly mocking the dismal failure that is US intelligence (we can’t wait for an AP hit piece declaring the bitcoin-friendly leader to be serving Russian propaganda).

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    The bottom line:

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    In any case, after sliding in early Sunday trading, US equity futures stepped off the ledge and jumped as much as 55 points on news of the upcoming summit…

    … with safe havens such as gold and Treasuries sliding, as the invasion clock is once again reset back to square one.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 21:04

  • How We Would Pay For The War
    How We Would Pay For The War

    By Michael Every, Hugo Erken, Michiel van der Veen, Ryan Fitzmaurice and Stefan Voge of Rabobank

    Summary

    • Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine linger despite recent possible de-escalation
    • We build on our recent ‘Ukraine metacrisis’ to model three macroeconomic war scenarios
    • Scenario A assumes a short disruptive war; scenario B a war and effective sanctions on Russia; and scenario C a war, effective sanctions on Russia, and secondary sanctions on others still trading with Russia
    • In scenario A, some economic pain is clear; in B, severe in places; in C, so bad as to be paradigmatic (and unquantifiable with a traditional macro model)
    • Worryingly, we also see a high risk/reward scenario for Russia rather than just downside, which argues for scenario B (risking C), not A, to play out – or for a more violent world order
    • Keynes argued “How to Pay for the War”: we would all pay for this war if we have it, but how much and by whom varies

    “A reluctance to face the full magnitude of our task and overcome it is a coward’s part. Yet the nation is not in this mood and only asks to be told what is necessary. It is a fool’s part too. For victory may depend on our making it evident, that we can so organize our economic strength as to maintain indefinitely the excommunication of an unrepentant enemy from the commerce and society of the world.”  – J. M. Keynes, “How to Pay for the War” (1940

    How We’d Pay For the War…Depends on the War

    Contrary to the public claims of US intelligence, Wednesday 16 February 2022 did not see a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yet despite promises from Russian President Putin to withdraw some troops, the situation remains extremely tense: US sources indicate Russian forces are now actually closer to the Ukrainian border and could still advance at any time. Moreover, the broader geostrategic backdrop between Russia and Ukraine described in detail here is not one that can be easily or quickly resolved.

    This report, which builds on our previous ‘Ukraine metacrisis’ analysis, does not assert the probability of any geopolitical outcome: it attempts to assess the global macroeconomic impact if an invasion of Ukraine were to occur. We see three broad war scenarios: in one, the economic pain is notable but bearable; in another it is severe in places; in another, it is so bad as to be paradigmatic.

    As will be shown, we would all pay for the war one way or another – although how much and where varies. We actually quantify this in per capita contributions relative to a no war base case.

    Three War Scenarios

    Let’s begin by defining the parameters of the three scenarios we project. Economic forecasting is a hazardous exercise with a poor track record – and far more so given a backdrop of binary-outcome geopolitical decisions with very fat tails. Indeed, it is impossible to capture all possible outcomes vis-à-vis Ukraine. This report simply assumes a short war occurs and Russia wins. From there, we see only three realistic scenarios to test in terms of their macroeconomic impact:

    From here, we now need to clarify the various assumptions we make for key markets as inputs to our macro modelling – although the specific price-points for some commodities are obviously of interest themselves. We will start with scenarios A and B, before going on to scenario C separately.

    Assumption 1: Global Trade Flows

    Scenario A, war, disrupts global trade for a maximum of six months. We assume significant drops in EU-Russia trade flows in particular.

    Scenario B, war and effective sanctions, assumes the same, and that sanctions are imposed on Russia, occupied Ukraine, and Belarus by the US, EU, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Korea, altering global trade patterns. Yet some countries will try to evade such sanctions: China has stated it will work with Russia to do so. We therefore assume that $100bn in commodity trade previously seen between sanctioning countries and Russia is rerouted to China at a discount while other countries pay higher prices.

    In scenario C, we assume the West also imposes effective secondary sanctions on China and other non-compliant economies.

    Assumption 2: Risk Premia

    War would result in global financial market turmoil, and war fears have already seen global equities pressured lower: indeed, Bloomberg recently noted a call that a Ukraine war could be a “polar vortex” for markets. To gauge this shift, we raise the investment premium in our model scenarios to reflect wider spreads between risk-free interest rates and the return on risky assets.

    In scenario A, war, we adopt a relatively small overall rise in the global investment risk premium, comparable to the rise seen after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

    In scenario B, war and effective sanctions, we increase the global investment risk premium to match the increase seen during the second Gulf War in 2003.

    However, not all countries would be hit equally. To simplify which would and how much, we focus on the direct macroeconomic impact of energy prices as a standardized measure. The extent to which the risk premium is raised per country then depends on its exposure to Russian energy imports. Methodologically:

    • Net energy exporters are left out of the equation, as they are seen as better insulated;
    • We then look at the share of energy imports within total imports;
    • We then look at the share of Russian energy imports within energy imports.

    Of course, there can be other financial risk transmission mechanisms, such as interest rates — where central banks already face inflation/growth dilemmas– and a loss of ‘animal spirits’. However, we believe this energy metric speaks best to the most powerful,  immediate economic and financial shock that would be delivered globally.

    Assumption 3: Oil and Natural Gas Prices

    There is a long and storied history of geopolitics and supply disruptions impacting oil and gas prices. A Ukraine war has the potential to be a major market-mover given Russia’s dominant position as a global energy supplier.

    Crude oil and refined products

    Russia is one of the world’s top three producers of crude oil, alongside the US and Saudi Arabia. Russia currently produces over 10mb/d (10% of global production) and exports roughly half of that to large consumers globally. Furthermore, Russia is also a meaningful exporter of refined products, such as diesel and gasoline. Importantly, nearly half of Russian crude oil exports (~2.4mb) are sent to Europe via a major long haul and cost-effective pipeline network that stretches from the oil fields of Western Siberia all the way to Germany with important arteries along the way, giving Russia a significant financial edge over competing waterborne imports. This competitive advantage has led to Russia gaining a strong foothold in Europe with a nearly 30% market share of its oil imports and increased geopolitical leverage over its European customers as a result. This dynamic has been on full display recently, with one high ranking Russian official threatening to cut off energy supplies to Europe should Russia be banned from using the SWIFT system in the event of Western sanctions. We therefore consider scenarios whereby Russian energy exports to Europe are (partly) cut-off and re-routed to Asia.

    Scenario A, war, would result in Brent spiking as hoarding, increased transit costs, and the geopolitical risk premium spikes. The last major oil supply disruption to Europe was during the 2011 Libyan civil war, when its oil exports collapsed due to infighting: as Libyan oil production fell from 1.5mb/d to zero, Brent prices spiked from $90 to more than $125 over four months.

    Scenario B, war and effective sanctions, would see oil at $135 and higher for far longer.

    Natural gas

    The situation is even more dire in relation to natural gas given Europe and Asia are already feeling a supply crunch that has sent prices soaring above $200 per barrel of oil equivalent: the push to decarbonize global economies has resulted in robust natural gas demand growth in Asia, forcing Europe into bidding wars for tight supplies of the clean burning fuel.

    Russia is a dominant global producer of natural gas and Europe is even more dependent on it for supplies than it is for oil, with Russia controlling 35% of the market. There is no saying how high natural gas prices could go in the event of a supply disruption given how high prices already are relative to history, but in scenario A we assume $175 per barrel of oil equivalent and in scenario B $215, and for far longer. The one saving grace would be that we are approaching the end of the high-demand winter months, allowing the market a few months to adjust.

    Assumption 4: Food Prices

    War would have a major impact on grains, vegetable oils, and fertilizers.

    Grains

    Scenario A, war, would stop Ukrainian wheat, barley, and corn exports. With very tight global markets, this would drive prices up even if 2/3 of the season’s wheat and barley and 1/3 of the corn crop has already been exported. We expect a 30% rise in wheat and 20% in corn prices. Scenario B, war and effective sanctions, would be worse. Russian wheat and barley have also been 2/3 exported this season, but Russia and Ukraine account for 30% of world wheat exports, which would drive global prices up 30% if removed. If sanctions were still in place by July, when harvesting of the next crop begins, it would cut deeply into global grain availability. Demand rationing would be forced via higher prices: wheat would then double, and corn rise 30%. By autumn 2022, northern hemisphere farmers (where most wheat is grown) could extend their wheat area by cutting back on other crops, especially feed grains; but only by mid-2023, when those crops are harvested, could the wheat market somewhat rebalance.

    Feed grain prices depend on China’s trade with Russia. China imports massive amounts of feed grains (corn, barley, sorghum) from world markets: it can buy these volumes almost exclusively from Russia/Ukraine. China could also buy more Russian/Ukrainian wheat for animal feed to replace global corn/barley, while global buyers could buy from origins previously serving China’s needs. In such a scenario, the impact on corn/barley would be relatively small. However, if China cannot buy from Russia/Ukraine, harvested volumes in Russia have to go into storage, and China buying from world markets would see a further global shortage, driving prices up, albeit not as much as for wheat. We project corn and barley to rise 30% in scenario B.

    Vegetable oil

    Global vegetable oils markets are also very tight, and while sunflower oil is not massive in the global context, Russia and Ukraine still account for 15% of total global vegetable oil exports. Key buyers from the region are China and India, again leaving the question whether China can import from there or not. If China can’t import, global markets will have to cut demand via significantly rising prices. We assume a 20% rise in vegetable oil prices in scenario B.

    Fertilizers

    While prices are currently very high, a further increase cannot be avoided if key exports from Russia/Belarus are disrupted. As natural gas is a key price driver for fertilizer production, world producers would also transfer higher input costs to their finished fertilizer product, driving prices up further. We assume fertilizer prices rising 20% in scenario A and 40% in scenario B. However, China would again be insulated in scenario B if it can trade with Russia.

    Unquantifiable Scenario C

    Scenario C means war, the West imposing effective sanctions on Belarus/Russia, and then effective secondary sanctions on China other economies that deal with Russia.

    Crucially, this would have such a disruptive effect on global trade flows that macroeconomic models cannot capture it: no model of the globalised international economy today can describe its political-economy bifurcation closer towards that which prevailed during the Cold War. However, we can describe it qualitatively. As a contemporary example of this isolation, look at the economic disruption being experienced by Iran; of the US-China trade war; the supply-chain impact of Covid; the border headaches caused by Brexit; or the sudden loss of Chinese export markets experienced by Australian wine producers. A combination of all of these would result from Western sanctions dividing the world into countries ‘with us or against us’ (which is how a former US administration categorised its own military action against Iraq two decades ago).

    Markets are unprepared for such outcomes – as they were for Brexit, the US-China trade war, and Covid, etc. As such, some European economies are nervous about being too tough on Russia, and even the present US administration is cautious about how far it can realistically go in imposing sanctions that others will comply with globally.

    However, as we argued in ‘The Ukraine Metacrisis’, the absence of effective secondary sanctions would itself carry a worrying message in terms of the West’s inability to compel Russia not to resort to war via primary sanctions. (An issue we will return to later.)

    Commodity price shock using NiGEM

    To calculate the impact of a commodity price shock resulting from war we used the macroeconometric trade model, ‘NiGEM’. Rabobank has been using this econometric model for over a decade, and other institutions, such as the ECB and the Bank of England, use the model as well. In this respect the outcome of our exercise are informative, in that they show what policy makers may be assuming lies ahead ‘geopolitically’.

    The upside of NiGEM is that all relevant variables –commodity prices, trade variables, risk premia– can be adjusted to simulate a potential war and at the same time take into account country-specific interdependencies through trade, competition, financial markets and international asset stocks. However, NiGEM estimates in a ‘New-Keynesian’ framework, and its rigidities result in a slow adjustment process in case of external shocks. We forced adjustments onto the model to account for unorthodox parameters presented by scenario B. The commodity price shocks we use effect countries through a number of mechanisms.

    • First, trade between countries is impacted. NiGEM treats export and import prices as a weighted average of non-commodity and commodity prices, the latter encompassing oil, food, beverage, agricultural raw materials, and metals prices.
    • Second, higher food and energy prices result in consumer price inflation, which erodes disposable income, purchasing power and, consequently, lowers private consumption and GDP growth.
    • Finally, a rise in energy prices affects potential output negatively, as this depends on the energy intensity (i.e. oil, gas, coal, renewables) of a country.

    A downside of NiGEM is that the second-round effects of higher commodity prices on producer prices and, consequently, the feed-through in business investments and consumer prices is modelled rather weakly. NiGEM also cannot handle the extreme scenario C.

    Visualizing the Scenarios

    Having drawn our two quantifiable scenarios A and B, and our key assumptions for inputs, the model’s results can now be described in turn.

    The Macroeconomic Impact

    Inflation

    Scenario A, war, would see a significant upward revision to y/y CPI inflation in 2022, ranging from 0.6 – 1.6ppts, and then flat to -0.7ppts downward revisions in 2023. This would once have been considered a major inflation shock – but against the present backdrop look mild or a continuation of the recent trend, which speaks to the scale of present inflation pressures.

    Scenario B, war and effective sanctions, would see upward revisions to y/y CPI inflation in 2022, ranging from 1.3 – to 3.5ppts, and then a further 1.4 – 5.9ppts in 2023. That is a major continuation of our current inflation shock. Indeed, the overall picture (underlined for the US and Europe in Figures 10 and 11) is that war would ensure what was wrongly described as “transitory” inflation by central banks remains high in 2022; and war and sanctions would mean it remains high in 2022 and 2023. After that, the dynamic reverts back to the vicissitudes of helpful base effects, unhelpful supply chains, uncertain labor markets, and unwelcome fiscal and monetary policy.

    (On which note, partially related to inflation, a potential influx of Ukrainian refugees into the EU could distort supply-demand and labor market dynamics dramatically: some fear millions may try to enter.)

    Meanwhile, the impact on poorer economies –particularly of higher food prices– could prove socio-economically destabilizing. Even in developed economies, where food is a far smaller share of consumption baskets, it could increase pressures for higher nominal wage growth that are already building, and/or fuel political populism. This raises the tail risks for more inflationary pressures building further out, but this is a political economy forecast and not an economic one.

    GDP Growth

    Scenario A, war, sees lower private consumption and investment and so downwards revisions to 2022 and 2023 GDP growth relative to our base scenario. In the dollar-bloc these effects are moderate, with the US seeing growth 0.2ppts lower in 2022 and essentially unchanged in 2023. In Europe, the impact is heavier. Eurozone growth is 0.3ppts lower in both 2022 and 2023. The UK sees 2022 and 2023 growth 0.2ppts lower. In EM, India sees growth 0.7ppts lower in both years due to its higher trend GDP growth rate, while China sees a drag of -0.5ppts for the same reason. Mexico and Brazil are relatively unaffected. Russia’s result will be discussed separately ahead.

    Scenario B, war and effective sanctions, is more dramatic. US growth is 0.4ppts and 0.6ppts lower in 2022 and 2023, and the rest of the dollar bloc see growth 0.2-0.3ppts lower in 2022 and 0.2-0.6ppts lower in 2023, New Zealand hit hardest. Eurozone GDP growth is 0.6ppts lower in 2022 and 1.1ppts in 2023, where headline GDP growth is just 1.1% y/y. The Netherlands sees 2022 growth 0.9ppts lower and 2023 -1.1ppts, with headline growth of only 0.4% y/y. Italy is hit hardest in 2023, with growth 1.5ppts lower and GDP growth of only 0.2% y/y. Germany sees GDP growth 0.8-1.1ppts lower over the period. Outside the EU, UK growth is 0.4-0.7ppts lower. In EM, Indian GDP is 1.1-1.2ppts lower, China’s 0.7-1.2ppts lower, Mexico’s slightly lower in both years, and Brazil’s 0.1ppt lower in 2022 but 0.3ppts higher in 2023.

    Obviously, these are just illustrative scenarios rather than point forecasts: we are fully cognizant of the “known” *and* “unknown unknowns” involved in economic forecasts of an even more dynamic and non-linear geopolitical global economy than usual. Nevertheless, one can see that war would prove painful, but manageable to most countries, yet hitting Europe hardest, while war and effective sanctions would hit harder, and parts of Europe very hard indeed. Regardless, we still do not see outright recession risks – and that is even before we assume how central banks and/or governments may respond with supportive monetary and/or fiscal policy.

    “What Did You Pay in the War, Daddy?”

    We must remember it is the Ukrainian people who would pay the physical, psychological, and economic price of a war. However, other countries’ politicians have to worry about both their principles and their economies – and this has implications for the strategy taken to try to prevent war, as shall be shown. It is therefore necessary to quantify how much other states would ‘pay’.

    We measure this in terms of how much lower per capita GDP growth (in constant US dollars at purchasing power parity, PPP) would be in scenarios A and B relative to if a war had not happened. Of course, citizens do not ‘earn’ all GDP, just the labour share: we include the capital share to illustrate the negative impact of war.

    Scenario A, war, (Table 1) sees ‘lost’ GDP per capita over 2022-23 relative to our base case as marked – though this not a direct loss from actual 2021 GDP per capita levels, but rather a missed opportunity. We see a range from -$33 in Brazil and Mexico to +$951 in Russia – that latter figure in particular has implications we will discuss shortly.

    To equalise these dollar figures between economies of very different sizes we look at the % change in GDP per capita relative to the base case. Here we see an American would be 0.2% worse off than if the war had not happened, mostly due to higher inflation. In dollar bloc countries the figures range from -0.2 to -0.5%; in emerging markets from -1.2% (India) to a surplus of 3.5% (Russia); in the UK -0.4%; and in Europe it runs from -0.5% to -0.7%, with the Eurozone at -0.6%.

    Scenario B, war with effective sanctions, (Table 2) sees the lost opportunity relative to our base case far higher. We see a range from +$25 in Brazil to a huge -$1,440 in Russia – that latter figure again has serious implications. In GDP per capita terms, the dollar  bloc has a -0.3% to -0.9% range; emerging markets run from +0.2% in Brazil to that huge Russian loss of 5.2%, while China sees -1.9%; the UK is -1.1%; and Europe is hit extremely hard, with -2.0% in the Netherlands. Again we stress that this is not a decline in nominal dollars from the 2021 level, but a missed opportunity measured in constant dollars at PPP. Think of it as money left on the table.

    Wealth Effects

    Obviously, a war, effective sanctions, higher inflation, and lower growth would all hit asset prices: global equity markets have already seen risk-off moves over Ukraine war fears. We opted not to try to impute any such negative wealth effects on top of the macro model we used: this was partly because we already had enough “unknown unknowns” to try to capture, and partly because it involved forecasting asset prices as well as macro variables. Instead, we make the simpler point that:

    Scenario A, war, suggests risks of an equity market correction, a 10% decline from present levels assuming this is not yet fully priced in (which we believe is the case).

    Scenario B, war and effective sanctions, suggests risks of an equity bear market, a 20% decline from present levels, assuming this is not yet fully priced in (which we believe is the case)

    As can be seen (Figure 16), the combined decline in stock values in either a correction or a bear market runs into trillions of dollars, led by the huge US market. To many, that makes the possibility of war even more worrying than the projected impact on GDP would suggest.

    Worryingly, however, this fear can create perverse incentives that can actually escalate economic and geopolitical risk scenarios. We will now explain why.

    High Risk/Reward for Russia: and the World!

    Scenario A, war, shows the Russian economy actually *benefits*. Shockingly, our model shows the average Russian would be $951 better off (in constant PPP dollars) if they win the war, and this is not including control of Ukraine’s fertile farmlands, or unquantifiable psychological, geopolitical, or geostrategic benefits. It may be uncomfortable, but that is the result of higher commodity prices for an economy that is so exposed to such commodities.

    Scenario B, war and effective sanctions, however, would force Russian GDP per capita down a massive 5.2%, or $1,440. On one level, the risk/reward is clearly slanted towards Russia not acting,… if economics is a guide to geopolitical behaviour. Yet only if we see *effective* sanctions! Yet these may prove hard to achieve.

    We already showed scenario B would be more inflationary and depress GDP growth for longer, and the impact would be felt by those imposing sanctions as well as Russia. This means some countries may wish to avoid sanctions – leading to scenario A; and if ineffective sanctions were imposed, it again leads to scenario A. If sanctions are effective, evaders would then profit most, incentivising non-compliance; yet extending sanctions to the evaders then leads to scenario C’s huge macroeconomic, financial, and geopolitical tail risks; and not extending sanctions can render them ineffective and lead back to scenario A!

    In short, there appears no middle or ‘muddle’ way. Geostrategic logic, and the economic outcome shown above, suggests risks we either lean towards a world that rewards geopolitical aggression (scenario A), or towards a more bifurcated global economy to try to stop it (scenario C). Either outcome promises unpleasant future macroeconomic shocks, even if they cannot be quantified in traditional macro models.

    Whose part is which scenario

    Although we must stress that NATO will not go to war directly with Russia, and so this is not WW3 we are discussing, the logical argument to embrace the more painful economic scenario B (and then risking C) to prevent the most painful geopolitical outcome (scenario A) means we must end this report as we began it – with what Keynes wrote about paying for WW2 in 1940: “A reluctance to face the full magnitude of our task and overcome it is a coward’s part. Yet the nation is not in this mood and only asks to be told what is necessary.”

    But what mood are the nations in? As just shown, we would all pay for the war. How much we do pay depends on if the West again thinks “victory may depend on our making it evident, that we can so organise our economic strength as to maintain indefinitely the excommunication of an unrepentant enemy from the commerce and society of the world”; or if it instead opts to reduce near-term costs even at the risk of paying a far higher price in more than just economic dimensions at a later date.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 20:35

  • 1 Killed, 5 Wounded During Portland Protest Of Police Violence
    1 Killed, 5 Wounded During Portland Protest Of Police Violence

    At least one person was killed and another five were wounded in a shooting during a protest in Portland over police violence. According to preliminary reports from the scene, the shooting took place Saturday night at Normandale Park in the Oregonian city following a “confrontation” between a protester and a nearby homeowner, both of whom were reportedly armed. 

    Police said the scene was “extremely chaotic” and that few witnesses agreed to speak with police: Responding officers found one woman dead, and two men and three other women were taken to the hospital.

    Information about their conditions has not been released, and police have not named anyone involved in the shooting.

    “The scene was extremely chaotic, and a number of witnesses were uncooperative with responding officers,” the police department said in a statement released Sunday. “Most people on scene left without talking to police…This is a very complicated incident, and investigators are trying to put this puzzle together without having all the pieces.”

    Social media event postings show that the shooting occurred during a march that was planned for Amir Locke, a black man who had been fatally shot by police in Minneapolis. The protest was in a way reminiscent of the non-stop police protests during the summer of 2020 that led anarchists in the city to establish a police-free no-go zone. The nightly protests that summer “often spiraled into violence.”

    “I was sitting in the room talking to my wife, and all of a sudden you hear repeated gunshots,” Jeff Pry, who lives in the area, told the New York Times.

    In its wake, the city is now dealing with a rash of gun violence. While last year was marked by record-high numbers of gun violence in Portland, the number of shooting incidents during the first month of 2022 outpaced January 2021. During January alone, police recorded 127 shootings in the city.

    The number of homicides in Portland last year surpassed the number in more populous cities such as San Francisco and Boston, and was more than double the number of slayings in nearby Seattle, which has a population of nearly 200K more people.  

    Locke was shot while police in Minneapolis were executing a no-knock warrant on Feb. 2. The city’s mayor, Jacob Frey, imposed a moratorium on no-knock warrants just a couple of days later.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 20:00

  • Hedge Fund CIO: This Is The Kind Of Market That Grinds, Churns Until One Day The Bottom Just Falls Out
    Hedge Fund CIO: This Is The Kind Of Market That Grinds, Churns Until One Day The Bottom Just Falls Out

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    Hope all goes well… “Miami’s yachts are way bigger than a few years ago,” bellowed Biggie Too in baritone. “And it’s getting crowded on the water,” he said. “All my boys say this isn’t 2008, we still got time.” Like in 2007. “But things are feeling weird to Biggie,” said Too, sliding comfortably into 3rd person, like a warm bubble bath.

    “We been here, seen this, like right before the pandemic, like when we all were saying this is just another SARS, MERS – like a few hundred get sick in some crowded Hong Kong block, the media gets hysterical, then it’s over,” barked Biggie Too, global chief strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs.

    “But now it’s Putin on the border, and Biggie’s starting to feel like we’re all complacent. Like we think it’ll play out just fine, like it has for decades,” whispered Too. “And this rotation in equities feels like a real bear market.”

    And the Fed hasn’t even hiked or sold a single bond yet. “Biggie smells the kind of market that grinds, churns, until one day the bottom just falls out.”  

    Overall:

    “We are facing a blatant attempt to rewrite the rules of our international system,” said Von der Leyen. “China and Russia seek a ‘New Era’ as they say, to replace the existing international order,” continued the EU Commission Chief. “They prefer the rule of the strongest to the rule of law, intimidation instead of self-determination, coercion instead of cooperation.” The existing international order is a historical anomaly. It took a second world war to thrust humanity sufficiently deep into the darkness that we came to see the light – the first world war was insufficient.

    The 1944 Bretton Woods agreement between 44 allied nations marked a departure from all previous post-war accords. The US could have demanded anything it wanted in exchange for supporting our allies and winning the war. But instead, it agreed to secure global trade routes, and open America’s vast consumer market to imports from allies (even from adversaries). In exchange the US asked for allegiance, but little more.

    It was an utterly extraordinary display of using strength in the service of good, and in so doing, lifting us all, inspiring our better angels. The rise in human prosperity that followed Bretton Woods is unparalleled in human history. We came to accept the resulting stability as a permanent state. This encouraged entrepreneurs to optimize the economy for low latency, just-in-time delivery. It allowed our financiers to leverage balance sheets to generate the highest possible returns.

    The process, in all its complexity, was disinflationary. The pendulum swung from a pre-war position of low profitability and high redundancy to a recent extreme of extraordinary profitability and high fragility. Irrespective of how events unfold in Ukraine and Taiwan in the months and years ahead, that pendulum has begun its long arc back. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 19:25

  • Ponzi Fraudster Bernie Madoff's Sister Dead In Suspected 'Murder-Suicide' At Florida Home
    Ponzi Fraudster Bernie Madoff’s Sister Dead In Suspected ‘Murder-Suicide’ At Florida Home

    The sister of late Ponzi fraudster Bernie Madoff was killed in what’s being called a possible murder-suicide in South Florida, according to Boca Raton News.

    Last Thursday, Sondra Wiener, 86, and her husband Marvin Weiner, 90, were found “unresponsive” inside their private gated community home in Valencia Lakes, located in the Tampa Bay Area. 

    The Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office confirmed a murder-suicide investigation is underway but would not release names of the deceased. Only Boca Raton News confirmed Bernie’s only sister and her husband died from gunshot wounds. It remains unclear who killed the other.  

    An email was sent out to the residents of Valencia Lakes, confirming the deaths of the Weiners. 

    “Let me start off by stating that as many of you have heard, we had a tragic situation on Barca Boulevard regarding the passing of Sondra and Marvin Weiner. Our thoughts and condolences go out to their family. There is currently an investigation pending. All I can say is at this time there is no security or safety threat to anyone in the community.”

    The couple’s deaths come a little less than a year after Bernie died in federal prison of old age on April 14, 2021. Madoff spent 12 years in jail after operating the largest Ponzi scheme ever that unraveled during the 2008 financial crisis. 

    Bernie’s sister and brother-in-law’s deaths also follow a series of deaths among the Madoff family. In 2010, Bernie’s son hanged himself inside his New York City apartment, and the other, Andrew, died of cancer in 2014. 

    According to NYPost, Ruth Madoff, 80, Bernie’s wife, lives in a multi-million waterfront mansion in Connecticut with a former daughter-in-law’s family. After the Ponzi scheme collapsed, Ruth had $70 million in assets and had most of it garnished by courts. 

    Suicide, death, and illness haven’t just plagued the Madoffs and immediate family members. Three investors and a hedge fund investor who invested with Bernie committed suicide after their investments were wiped out. The most notable was Charles Murphy, 56, who jumped off the luxury Sofitel New York Hotel in 2017 after he invested $7 billion with Bernie. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 18:50

  • Clogged Credit Channel Requires More PBOC Easing
    Clogged Credit Channel Requires More PBOC Easing

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst

    Three things we learned last week:

    1. More Chinese policy easing is needed. Despite recent interest-rate cuts, the credit spreads of lower-rated onshore bonds remain elevated. Yields on five-year bonds rated A+, the equivalent of junk debt, rose 7 basis points to 8.87% since a month ago, when the benchmark five-year loan prime rate was lowered. In fact, their borrowing costs relative to AAA-rated companies are close to a record high.  

    To economists at Goldman Sachs, the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy has weakened because Beijing’s housing curbs and strict Covid policy have substantially constrained credit demand from the property and consumption sectors. The clogged credit channel suggests monetary policy may have to be eased more to achieve the same growth target as before, the economists said. PBOC Governor Yi Gang pledged last week to maintain supportive monetary policy to help the economy return to its potential growth rate.

    2. The housing market remains weak. New home sales at the top 100 developers slumped 41% from a year earlier in January and the weakness lingered after the Lunar New Year holiday, according to Nomura. To spur demand, banks in several cities have cut mortgage down payments for some homebuyers, according to media reports. Nomura’s economists including Ting Lu were skeptical that such easing measures will be replicated in higher-tier cities. 

    3. The offshore yuan touched the strongest since 2018. Friday’s settlement data showed still-hefty money inflows to China in January. So far, the authorities have tolerated the yuan’s strength.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 18:15

  • Putin, Macron Agree To Hold Trilateral Talks "In The Next Few Hours" To Halt Escalation In Ukraine
    Putin, Macron Agree To Hold Trilateral Talks “In The Next Few Hours” To Halt Escalation In Ukraine

    French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to take urgent measures to deescalate the situation in eastern Ukraine, the Elysee said in a Sunday statement which followed a phone call between the two leaders in which Putin also discussed his intention to withdraw Russian troops from Belarus.

    Putin and Macron agreed to resume work within the ‘Normandy format’ – which will also include German and Ukrainian leadership – and will begin discussions “in the next few hours“ in order to “obtain a commitment from all the stakeholders” on a ceasefire on the line of contact.

    Meanwhile, a meeting between French and Russian ministers of foreign affairs, Jean-Yves Le Drian and Sergey Lavrov, will occur “in the coming days.”

    “This diplomatic work should make it possible to progress on the basis of the latest exchanges by involving all the stakeholders (Europeans, allies, Russians and Ukrainians) in order to achieve, if the conditions are met, a meeting at the highest level in to define a new order of peace and security in Europe.“

    The Kremlin has confirmed the statement, saying “it was agreed to continue contacts at various levels” but did not elaborate on specific details.

    “Serious concern has been expressed over the sharp deterioration of the situation on the line of contact in Donbass. The President of Russia noted that the escalation has been caused by the provocations of the Ukrainian security forces,” reads the Kremlin statement.

    According to Russia’s state-owned RT, Putin brought up “the ongoing pumping of Ukraine with modern weapons and ammunition” by NATO countries, which is pushing Kiev “toward a military solution to the so-called Donbass problem.” Because of the “intensifying shelling,” citizens in self-proclaimed breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine had to evacuate Russia.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Russia and Belarus, meanwhile, will extend their largest joint military drills in years, according to Bloomberg, citing the Belariusian Defense Ministry.

    The training exercises were scheduled to finish on Sunday and Russia had said it would return its troops to their bases afterward. While those drills are in Belarus, which is north of Ukraine, the defense ministry statement cited the deteriorating situation in eastern Ukraine for the extension. It also referred to increased military activity along the borders of Russia and Belarus, a likely reference to NATO’s recent deployment of more troops eastward. -Bloomberg

    In recent days, fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region has escalated – with allegations of violations on both sides of a 2015 ceasefire. According to Ukraine, the separatist leaders are increasing the rate of attacks, including on civilian targets, to force a response and create a pretext for a Russian invasion. Donbas leaders say they’re responding to Ukraine firing on them.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 17:44

  • WEF 'Infiltration': Rogan Redpilled, Canadian MP Cut Off For Asking – Accused Of Spreading "Disinformation"
    WEF ‘Infiltration’: Rogan Redpilled, Canadian MP Cut Off For Asking – Accused Of Spreading “Disinformation”

    Last month, 2017 footage of World Economic Forum (WEF) head Klaus Schwab resurfaced in which he boasts of having ‘penetrated’ various governments through its Young Global Leaders program. The clip is notable because the WEF – known best for its annual gathering of the global elite in Davos – has been openly pushing for digital IDs and vaccine passports, while leaders of said governments continue to impose Orwellian vaccine mandates which have resulted in widespread protests for medical freedom.

    “I have to say, when I mention now names, like Mrs. (Angela) Merkel and even Vladimir Putin, and so on, they all have been Young Global Leaders of the World Economic Forum … But what we are very proud of now is the young generation like Prime Minister (Justin) Trudeau … We penetrate the cabinets.”

    “So yesterday I was at a reception for Prime Minister Trudeau and I know that half of his cabinet, or even more than half of his cabinet, are actually Young Global Leaders.” -Klaus Schwab

    Watch:

    Other notable Young Global Leaders include: New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda “this will never end” Ardern, French President Emmanuel Macron, and other high ranking officials from Germany, Finland, Greece, the Netherlands and Denmark. It might even explain Pete Buttigieg’s odd success-to-competence ratio.

    Enter the pandemic

    Three years after Schwab bragged about having ‘penetrated cabinets’ of world governments, he wrote in a June 2020 publication titled Now is the time for a ‘great reset’ how the pandemic presented a “rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world to create a healthier, more equitable, and more prosperous future.”

    Then in May 2021, the WEF acknowledged that “The Forum is involved in the WHO task force to reflect on those [vaccine credential requirements] standards and think about how they would be used.”

    And so, given the WEF’s “infiltration” – people have begun asking questions over the group’s influence in current events.

    Podcaster Joe Rogan appeared shocked at the WEF’s ‘infiltration’ in a recent episode of with Maajid Nawaz.

    Meanwhile, Canadian MP Collin Carrie was cut off when asking about the influence of the WEF in domestic politics.

    “Klaus Schwab is the head of the World Economic Forum and bragged about how his WEF has infiltrated governments around the world,” asked Carrie, who was then cut off when he asked which ministers were behind the WEF agenda – with the speaker saying the sound had become “very poor.”

    Another MP then accused Carrie of “disinformation.”

    Watch:

    Ahem:

    As Jeremy Loffredo and Max Blumenthal wrote last October:

    On paper, the WEF (also known as the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation) is an NGO and think tank “committed to improving the state of the world.” In reality, it is an international network of some of the wealthiest and most influential people on the planet. The Forum positions itself as the thought leader of global capitalism.

    The organization is best known for its annual gathering of the global ruling class. Each year, hedge fund managers, bankers, CEOs, media representatives, and heads of state gather in Davos to “shape global, regional and industry agendas.” As Foreign Affairs put it, “the WEF has no formal authority, but it has become the major forum for elites to discuss policy ideas and priorities.”

    In 2017, German economist and WEF founder Klaus Schwab introduced the concept of “The Fourth Industrial Revolution” with the title of the book he published that year. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) denotes the current “technological revolution” that is changing the way people “live, work, and relate to one another,” and with implications “unlike anything humankind has experienced,” according to Schwab.

    For him, the 4IR is the “merging of the physical, digital and biological worlds.” Schwab has even said that the 4IR will inevitably veer into trans-humanism, or human genome editing.

    Why are Canada and other nations dying on this hill of mandates for a virus where the current dominant strain is largely a nuisance for the vast majority of those who contract it?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 17:40

  • What's Spooking Credit Markets
    What’s Spooking Credit Markets

    By Vishwanath Tirupattur, head of Quantitative Research at Morgan Stanley

    It has been a rough start to the year for markets. The central banks’ hawkish shift towards removing policy accommodation, the significant bear flattening of yield curves that followed, rising geopolitical tensions, fading prospects for fiscal support, and growing concerns about stretched valuations have all combined to spawn jitters in financial markets. Corporate credit has been no exception. After two years of abundant inflows, the narrative has turned to outflows from credit funds. In conjunction with negative total returns, these outflows conjure up painful memories of 2018, the last time credit markets had to deal with substantial policy tightening.

    Let us focus on the source of negative total returns in credit – sharply higher interest rates and duration versus concerns about credit quality and defaults. Consider leveraged loans, floating-rate instruments that have credit ratings comparable to HY bonds, which are fixed-rate instruments. Since the beginning of the year, leveraged loan spreads have widened by 11bp versus 80bp for HY bonds. Year-to-date, total returns for leveraged loans are at -0.5% versus -4.3% for HY bonds. According to weekly fund flow data from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research, leveraged loan funds have recorded $12.3 billion of inflows in 2022 in contrast to the $14 billion of outflows from HY bond funds. Even among fixed-rate credit bonds, with a total return to date of -6.8%, longer duration (IG) has underperformed lower quality (HY). Clearly, it is duration and not fear of a spike in defaults that is at the heart of credit investor angst.

    Of course, this could eventually turn into a quality challenge. Let us consider corporate credit fundamentals. The median sub-IG corporate is in better shape going into this hiking cycle than any of the last four cycles. For companies in our HY and loan fundamentals database, median net leverage is at the lower end of prior policy inflection points (adjusted for ratings mix) and cash-to-debt is at the high end. Maturity walls are also more back-ended than in prior hiking periods, limiting the need to refinance at unfavorable terms and/or during periods of volatility.

    The low-duration credentials of leveraged loans (and floating-rate assets) do not come free of cost. Higher rates eventually matter for borrowers across the board, but unlike the HY bond market where the transmission to borrower fundamentals happens at refinancing, the transmission into leveraged loan fundamentals is much quicker – interest costs go up immediately. Therefore, rising rates could ultimately turn into a fundamental headwind, depending on earnings growth. The timeline to this tipping point may be much shorter this time around.

    Analyzing the impact of rate hikes on interest coverage ratios (ICRs) for leveraged loan borrowers, my credit strategy colleagues, Srikanth Sankaran and Taylor Twamley, note that what matters more for ICRs is the point at which higher rates become a headwind for earnings growth. Loan ICRs have historically improved early in a hiking cycle as interest expenses are offset by growth in earnings. But eventually, as tighter financial conditions weigh on corporate earnings, coverage ratios inflect sharply to the downside. A steeper trajectory of rates not only results in a rapid rise in interest expenses but also narrows the window of further earnings-related improvement in ICRs. Their analysis shows that median ICR levels may drop from 4.7x currently to 4.0x under a 150bp rate increase, assuming no earnings growth. If the current market consensus earnings growth (+9%) is realized, median ICR levels only drop slightly to 4.5x but fall to 3.8x if earnings growth turns negative (-5%). I draw comfort from this evidence that corporate fundamentals in this cycle are better positioned to deal with our economists’ base case of six 25bp rate hikes this year, unless earnings growth turns sharply negative – not our current view.

    While credit fundamentals look fine, valuations do not. This is where the rubber meets the road. Despite widening year-to-date, credit spreads are still well below long-term average levels, let alone at the onset of a policy tightening cycle. Quantitative tightening will pressure credit spreads as central bank-provided liquidity is gradually drained from the market. We expect that the portfolio rebalancing channel will work its way through the widening of MBS spreads into the corporate credit space, with IG spreads in focus (see Not Giving Credit to MBS (Yet)). So, our stance on credit markets remains the same. We prefer taking default risk over duration and spread risk, and continue to favor leveraged loans over HY bonds over IG bonds.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 17:05

  • Jamaica Joins The Bahamas And The Eastern Caribbean In Rolling Out Its Central Bank Digital Currency
    Jamaica Joins The Bahamas And The Eastern Caribbean In Rolling Out Its Central Bank Digital Currency

    Jamaica is in the midst of launching – and perhaps more importantly marketing – its own e-currency. The country’s CBDC is called the Jam-Dex and it carries with it a tagline as relaxed as the nation’s reputation: “No cash, no problem”. 

    The Bank of Jamaica said it went through hundreds of suggestions to try and find a tagline for its CBDC, according to Yahoo Finance. We also hope, you know, that they actually tested the currency, too, and not just the marketing pitch. 

    The bank said the CBDC’s new slogan “is a phrase that instantly evokes Jamaica, and moreover, speaks to exactly the mood we want consumers and businesses to have when they are using Jam-Dex.”

    It’s a play on the country’s fame for being “content in the face of worry”, Yahoo wrote late this week. The logo for the CBDC – a crucial part of any good marketing campaign – is the nation’s national fruit, the ackee. 

    And the country’s central bank looks like they take things just barely serious enough as necessary. Yahoo noted that the country’s central bank logo “is a crocodile holding a key, and it regularly produces reggae songs about inflation targets and economic policy.”

    Jamaica took the digital currency for a test run in 2021, and Prime Minister Andrew Holness has decided that it would be launched nationally this year. The Bahamas and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank have already rolled out digital currencies of their own. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 16:30

  • How To Reconcile Numbers That Don't Pencil Out
    How To Reconcile Numbers That Don’t Pencil Out

    Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

    Do you want to make a fortune?

    Then open a Lamborghini dealership in the Midwest.

    That’s what investment biker Jim Rogers recommended in late-2014.  He also recommended becoming a farmer.  According to Rogers, you can make a lot of money as a farmer – even if you’re not any good at it.

    “Buy yourself some land and become a farmer […] because there’s going to be some fortunes made in agriculture and when an industry breaks full faith even mediocre people make a lot of money because everything is going right.

    “So if you really want to make a lot of money, that’s the best way to do it.  Alternatively, you can buy land and lease it out if you can find a good farmer.

    “There are other ways to make money in agriculture, of course.  You can open a chain of restaurants in the agricultural areas of the world because the farmers are going to be much more successful in the next 30 years than in the last 30 years.  Or open shops.  Get the Lamborghini dealership in the Midwest.  There’s more than one way to make money in agriculture.”

    Did farmers get rich during the years since Rogers’ recommendation?  Have Lamborghini dealerships in the Midwest boomed?

    Not exactly.

    But what about the years ahead?  Will there be a great agricultural prosperity?  Will farmers and Lamborghini dealers in the Midwest get rich?

    Was Rogers’ recommendation wrong…or was it early?

    Time will tell, of course.

    At the moment, there’s bountiful uncertainty that could drive agriculture prices much higher.  Though it won’t likely line the pockets of Midwestern farmers.

    Diminishing Returns

    The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed consumer prices, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), increased 0.6 percent in January.  However, the food index increased 0.9 percent.

    The index for cereals and bakery products increased the most, rising 1.8 percent over the month.  Dairy and related products followed at 1.1 percent.  And fruit and vegetable prices rose 0.9 percent.

    Yet for farmers, these price increases don’t come anywhere close to covering rising input costs.  The cost of phosphate and nitrogen-based fertilizers, for example, have soared 80 to 200 percent.  At these prices, there’s not much profit left over.  Certainly not enough to buy a new Lamborghini.

    Bill Taylor, who farms 2,500 acres of corn and soybeans in central Missouri, recently described the challenges of higher fertilizer prices:

    “Prices are all higher, it’s just crazy.  Guys like me are talking about reducing the amount we apply, or maybe delaying to see if prices come down.  It’s going to mean lower profits, or not even being able to break even.

    “There is still a lot of penciling to do.  If you don’t raise the crop, what do you do with all these excess inputs?  It’s going to make it hard on these younger guys, too, and the guys who are already struggling.”

    The application of fertilizer, like caffeine or credit, quickly reaches a point of diminishing returns.  Where further additions yield progressively smaller, or diminishing, increases in output.

    And when the rising cost of fertilizer rapidly outpaces the price of corn and soybean, its application becomes less about maximizing crop yield and more about minimizing input costs.  Add government induced supply chain disruptions and labor shortages to the mix, and you have all the ingredients for further food price increases.

    How to Reconcile Numbers that Don’t Pencil Out

    The means and methods for reconciling numbers that don’t pencil out are extremely disagreeable.  Some of the rising input costs can be passed on to consumers.  Some can also be absorbed through lower profit margins.

    But there are natural limits to what price increases can be absorbed and passed along.  When the numbers don’t pencil out, they don’t pencil out.

    For example, when input costs, including fertilizer and labor, push the costs of the final crop production above what the crops can readily be sold for, the business motive breaks down.  Halting operations makes the most business sense.  Consequently, as production is halted, and supply shrinks, consumer prices rise.

    The challenges farmers are facing are but one more example of the ramifications of government policies of extreme dollar debasement.  Rising prices – i.e., declining money – produce strange and painful distortions.  Fertilizer price inflation and labor price inflation, and the subsequent mismatch of agricultural prices, must be reconciled through agricultural supply shortages.

    But it’s not just food.  Used cars.  Gasoline.  Computer chips.  You name it.  Prices are up across the board.

    More than anyone else, the Federal Reserve’s mass money supply expansion policies combined with Washington’s mass money printing policies have brought us to this special place.  Where the relentless effects of rising consumer prices grind far and wide.

    For one, the grind rising prices put on savers and wage earners is extraordinarily painful.  It acts like a hefty tax…eroding family budgets that are already stretched.  Moreover, within this evolving regime of stagflation, personal income gains lag far behind rising consumer prices.

    Up and down, in and out of the economy, the numbers don’t pencil out.  And for the first time in over 40 years, the Fed can’t reconcile them with lower interest rates and fake money.

    In short, the point of diminishing returns has been passed, where greater inputs of credit no longer stimulate the economy.  Rather, they stimulate rising consumer prices.

    Hence, the Fed has a lot of catching up to do.  The federal funds rate is at practically zero.  The CPI is at 7.5 percent.  Raising the federal funds rate 50 or 100 basis points isn’t going to cut it.

    It may bring on a recession.  But it won’t reign in consumer price inflation.  By this, it’ll merely enhance the stagflation.

    In truth, it’ll take much more than a few rate hikes to get the economy’s numbers to pencil out.  If we’re lucky, a decade or two of depression and chaos will do the trick.

    *  *  *

    If you didn’t hear, this week Charlie Munger compared cryptos to venereal disease.  Naturally, you no longer have to mind your Ps and Qs when you’re 98 years old.  Munger also said inflation is how democracies die.  Hence, with the wave of inflation crashing down on the U.S. economy it’s only prudent for investors to employ wealth protection and preservation strategies.  If you’re interested in what this means and how to go about it, check out the Geometric Wealth Building Program.  Just a few simple moves could make all the difference.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 15:55

  • Firefighters Struggle To Extinguish Blaze On Cargo Ship Carrying 4,000 Luxury Cars
    Firefighters Struggle To Extinguish Blaze On Cargo Ship Carrying 4,000 Luxury Cars

    Seafaring firefighters are struggling to put out a fire aboard the Felicity Ace, a massive cargo ship that has caught fire off the coast of Portugal’s Azores islands with thousands of luxury cars – including Porsches, Audis and Volkswagens – on board.

    We chronicled the incident a few days ago, noting that the shipment of cars had been bound for the US market, where a shortage of supply and surging demand has led to a serious crunch in new car supply. The shortage has left many American teens struggling to find a suitable used car to buy as their first automobile.

    Maritime law dictates that any party who helps to save the cargo on the ship will be entitled to some remuneration so…in essence, it’s “finders, keepers” for the thousands of cars that may or may not be damaged from the fire and smoke.

    According to Reuters, the Felicity Ace, which according to the latest reports is carrying around 4,000 vehicles (bizarrely, that’s more than the roughly 2,500 it was reported to be carrying earlier in the week) has been complicated by the fact that the lithium-ion batteries aboard some electric vehicles on the ship have caught fire, exacerbating the blaze. The 22 crew members on board were evacuated on the same day the ship caught fire.

    “The intervention (to put out the blaze) has to be done very slowly,” João Mendes Cabeças, captain of the nearest port in the Azorean island of Faial, told Reuters late on Saturday. “It will take a while.”

    Lithium-ion batteries in the electric vehicles on board are “keeping the fire alive”, Cabeças said, adding that specialist equipment to extinguish it was on the way.

    Cabeças previously said that “everything was on fire about five meters above the water line” and the blaze was still far from the ship’s fuel tanks. However, it appears to be getting closer, he said.

    “The fire spread further down,” he said, explaining that teams could only tackle the fire from outside by cooling down the ship’s structure as it was too dangerous to go on board.

    Due to the nature of the blaze, firefights can’t use water because adding weight to the ship could make it more unstable, and traditional water-based fire extinguishers do not stop lithium-ion batteries from burning, Cabeças said.

    Once the fire is out, the ship (or whatever is left of it) and its cargo are expected to be towed to a location in Europe, or the Bahamas.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 15:20

  • Crypto & The Mathematical Cycles Of History
    Crypto & The Mathematical Cycles Of History

    Authored by Mark Moss via DailyReckoning.com,

    People think that progress is linear, a step-by-step process. In reality, it’s not linear. It’s actually exponential and cyclical. We have cycles that keep repeating within the overall pattern of progress. So even though things are changing, in one important sense, they’re actually staying the same.

    There are also stages to the way these cycles work. They’re like a pendulum that swings back and forth. The pendulum swings from centralization to decentralization, then the process repeats.

    Cycles also have time periods. That’s pretty interesting because if you’re into technical analysis, you understand everything is mathematical, which is a bit weird. And so we have these cycles within cycles. Roughly speaking, you have 28-year cycles, 84-year cycles and 250-year cycles.

    Look at the math. Three times 28 equals an 84-year cycle. Three times 84 equals a 250-year cycle. So the number three is important here. Not to get too technical (pun intended!), but it’s like what you would see in technical analysis with things such as triple bottoms.

    Let’s start with the 84-year cycle. You might have heard of things like the Fourth Turning, which proposes an 80-year cycle. I like to call these cycles a regime change. I say about 84 years, but it could be 74, or it could be 90 years.

    But let’s just say regime change takes place about every 84 years. In the 1930s, we had regime change. What do I mean? In the United States, FDR’s New Deal essentially took America from a capitalist to more of a centralized, socialist-type country.

    Roughly 84 years before that Karl Marx wrote The Communist Manifesto, which inspired the 1848 European Spring or the Springtime of the Peoples, which was the largest revolution in European history. So every 84 years we’re seeing a popular uprising, which of course we’re seeing today.

    Today you have people in the streets protesting mandates. But people around the world were protesting even before the pandemic. You could see it starting back with Brexit, which was a major blow to the globalist establishment. Trump’s election in the United States was also a rejection of the establishment. We’ve also had BLM and Antifa become a force in 2020, with massive unrest in many cities.

    And so you see a major swing about every 84 years (again, it could be more, it could be less). Right now, we’re at the end of an 84-year cycle, which was a centralizing cycle. But that’s only part of a larger cycle. As I said earlier, three times 84 equals 252.

    And every 250 years, we have a revolution. This is where we are today. About 250 years ago we had the American and French revolutions. In the American case, they were rebelling against British rule. They set up a decentralized government afterward. In the French case they were rebelling against the Old Regime of the crown and the Church.

    Two hundred fifty years before that was the Protestant Reformation. Leading up to the Protestant Reformation, the Church had amassed all the power. The Church was the only way to get to God. But once the printing press had decentralized information, the people could read the Bible themselves and discovered they didn’t need the Church after all. And the Church lost its power.

    When the Church lost its monopoly, we had an explosion of development. We went into the Renaissance age.

    And the Renaissance gave birth to science and technology, which then led to the Industrial Revolution. Then the Industrial Revolution, about 250 years later, brought us technology that started to centralize us again. People moved to the cities from the farms. We built giant factories. We built giant cities. Nation-states became heavily centralized.

    Now we’re at the end of that 250-year timeframe. We’re entering the cycle where the pendulum is ready to swing away from centralization. We’re at peak centralization, and we’re moving toward decentralization. I don’t believe any of this is random. These cycles of history tell us that the pendulum is beginning to swing back.

    The key piece to understand is that these revolutions were pushing against centralized establishments and toward decentralization. And they happen every 250 years or so on average. And if you look back through history, every 84 years, we have a revolution or a populist uprising and every 250 years we have a revolution.

    Incidentally, no empires really lasted more than 250 years. Some may have technically lasted longer, but their heydays were much less. No democracy has really lasted more than 250 years either. So there’s something to the 250-year cycle.

    Technology is a major component of change.  But revolutionary technology is technology that’s disruptive. Technological revolutions build entire new economies and change the way humanity works. Just like the printing press was the technological piece that changed the way the Church had monopoly power over people, today we’re witnessing another technology that’s changing things as well.

    And just like the Church, no matter how many people they killed, no matter how hard they tried, they couldn’t keep the change from happening. I believe we’re in a situation today where no matter how hard establishments try, they can’t stop decentralizing technology either.

    The technology that will decentralize the world is cryptocurrencies. Just like in the Protestant Reformation, we have a new technology that’s decentralizing. What’s interesting is that, at a time when the entire world is at peak centralization and is ready to move toward decentralization, we have a technology that gives us exactly what we need for decentralization.

    So now we have cryptocurrencies that are breaking that centralizing grip. And so no matter how much they want to try to maintain that power like the Church did in 1500, the mega politics have shifted. The world is going from a period of centralization, and now the world is decentralizing.

    The decentralized revolution is the biggest technological revolution. And technological revolutions drive all financial cycles. So a big overarching investment theme for the years ahead is in the decentralized revolution. That means Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, etc.

    If you look at Bitcoin to measure this, Bitcoin had reached a 10% adoption within a few years, by about 2019. Based on how revolutionary technologies are adopted, we should be at about 90% adoption by 2029.

    Now, new technologies typically have much faster adoption because they build on top of existing technologies. So for example, the internet was adopted much faster than the telephone because it used telephone lines to gain adoption.

    But decentralization is about more than cryptocurrencies. During the centralizing Industrial Revolution, if you wanted to make money, you had to be in the United States. And not just in the United States: You had to be in a city where the jobs were. And because of that centralizing nature, it made it very easy for the governments to squeeze everybody through taxes.

    During the pandemic, people found out they could work from home. And so now, people are moving to places like Wyoming, Idaho and Montana where taxes are much lower.

    They could never live there before because they couldn’t work there before. They can also move to Mexico or Costa Rica and work from there. I have about 15 people that work for me. Everyone’s decentralized all around the world.

    So there’s going to be this great migration. That opens up plays for cash flow and real estate investing, as well as technologies that cater to them. And as people start decentralizing, the government starts losing its ability to squeeze people.

    This new cycle will be well underway by the end of this decade. It could potentially be the most profitable decade of your life if you position yourself accordingly.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/20/2022 – 14:45

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Feb 20

Today’s News 20th February 2022

  • PCR: WaPo Is CIA's "Propaganda Service For The Military/Security/Pharma Complex"
    PCR: WaPo Is CIA’s “Propaganda Service For The Military/Security/Pharma Complex”

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The Washington Post has always been a CIA asset.  

    The CIA used the Washington Post to orchestrate the Watergate narrative used to drive President Nixon out of office.

    The CIA wanted Nixon gone, because Nixon was threatening the military/security complex’s budget and power by making arms control  agreements with the Soviets and by opening to China.  The CIA was afraid to assassinate Nixon because of the suspicion it was under for assassinating President Kennedy and Senator Kennedy.  So the CIA used the Washington Post to assassinate Nixon politically. 

    The entire history of the Washington Post is one of fake news.  The latest fake news from the disinformation sheet claims that the Russian troop pullback is a “deliberate ruse to mislead the United States and other world powers” about Russia’s planned invasion of Ukraine. “Anonymous US intelligence sources” (the CIA) are cited as the source.   

    First of all, the Russian troops were part of an exercise, not an invasion plan.  But push this fact aside and ask yourself what is the point of Russia concealing its plans?  If Russia wants to invade Ukraine, no one on earth can do anything whatsoever about it.  So why hide it?  Indeed, with satellites overhead a force concentrated for invasion cannot be hidden.  The presstitute who wrote the story and the CIA that dictated it are thinking in WW II terms when modern surveillance capabilities did not exist.

    Ask yourself also why Russia needs to create a false flag attack in order to justify invading Ukraine.  If Russia wants Ukraine, Russia has plenty of up front reasons.  One is to prevent Ukraine from being a NATO member and hosting US missile bases on Russia’s border. Another is that Ukraine is part of Russia and had been for 300 years until the Americans broke it off from Russia when Russia was to weak to do anything about it. Another reason is that Ukraine has violated the Minsk Agreement and continues to attack the Russian population in the Donbass region.  

    In actual fact, Russia doesn’t need any excuse, because no one can stop them.

    Also ask yourself what is the point of an excuse.  No matter how good it is, Washington and NATO would not believe it.  The excuse would do no good and serve no purpose.  In fact an excuse would be worse than no excuse, because the excuse would simply result in the endless refutation of the excuse.  

    If I were Putin and I wanted Ukraine, I would just take it.  I would say, you Americans took Iraq and Libya. The Israelis stole Palestine.  I’m taking Ukraine.  

    The real question is one the presstitutes will never address.  Does all the focus on an imagined Russian invasion of Ukraine serve to direct attention away from the 150,000 Ukrainian troops on the Donbass border as Ukraine prepares to invade the Donetsk and Lugansk republics that broke away from Ukraine and are in the process of evacuating citizens to Russia in anticipation of a Ukrainian invasion?

    The United States does not have a media.  It has a propaganda service for the military/security complex, the pharmaceutical industry, and the global elite.  It is impossible to wring one word of truth out of the US media.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 23:05

  • US Navy Charges Five Sailors Over Leaked F-35 Crash Video
    US Navy Charges Five Sailors Over Leaked F-35 Crash Video

    An image and multiple videos of a Lockheed Martin F-35C stealth fighter jet that crashed-landed on an aircraft carrier transiting an undisclosed location in the South China Sea were leaked onto the internet in early February. After an investigation, the US Navy charged a handful of sailors for leaking internal video footage of the incident. 

    According to Military.com, four senior enlisted sailors and a junior office were charged for violations of the Uniform Code of Military Justice. The sailors were charged for leaking government footage of the USS Carl Vinson’s Pilots Landing Aid Television (PLAT) showing the F-35C crashing on the flight deck. PLAT is a camera system that corrects a plane’s approach while landing on a carrier. 

    Naval Air Forces spokesman Cmdr. Zach Harrell told Military.com the five sailors were charged under Article 92 for “failure to obey a lawful order.” 

     “The investigation into the unauthorized release of the shipboard video footage has concluded,” Harrell said.

    Here’s the PLAT video that was leaked. 

    Cell phone videos and an image leaked onto the internet by other sailors weren’t charged because “the rationale was that the PLAT video was a government document released without being properly cleared, rather than images or video footage from a personal device,” the Navy told USNI. The image of the F-35 floating in the water and videos of the plane crash taken by cell phones aren’t considered government documents. 

    The Navy has dealt with cell phones in aircraft, ships, and submarines. Some sailors and or pilots have been barred from using cell phones in some classified areas because they might accidentally reveal capabilities on social media to adversaries. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 22:30

  • Chinese Agribusiness Poised To Open Factory In North Dakota Draws Scrutiny Over CCP Ties, Security Risks
    Chinese Agribusiness Poised To Open Factory In North Dakota Draws Scrutiny Over CCP Ties, Security Risks

    Authored by J.M. Phelps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A China-based bio-fermentation products maker coming to the United States is being touted as a win for the local economy, but there’s growing concern over its national security implications and potential ties to forced labor.

    This photo taken on August 30, 2016 shows a Chinese worker sweeping the grounds at a chemical factory in Yichang, central China’s Hubei province. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

    The Epoch Times spoke to Ross Kennedy, founder of Fortis Analysis, about his recent research concerning China-based company Fufeng Group Limited that’s poised to set up shop in midwestern America. Fufeng is a manufacturer of bio-fermented products derived from corn, which are used in end products ranging from animal feed to pharmaceuticals. A Hong Kong-listed company, the group has multiple subsidiaries around the world, but most of its production facilities can be found in northeast China.

    In early November, it was announced that Fufeng Group is in negotiations to bring its agribusiness company to Grand Forks, North Dakota. The new plant, which employs a manufacturing process revolving around the fermentation of corn starch, is expected to consume about 25 million bushels of corn a year. The cost of construction is estimated to near $350 million. Fufeng USA, the company’s American subsidiary, is handling the new endeavor.

    Dubbed as a “historic” investment and game-changer for area farmers, the prospective project has been described as “the largest single private capital investment in the region’s history” according to Keith Lund of the Grand Forks Region Economic Development Corporation. On Jan. 12, city officials tentatively approved significant tax breaks for Fufeng Group, the Grand Forks Herald reported.

    The future plant will be “wet corn milling” facility and is expected to be fully operational by 2024 or 2025, local media reported. The company will produce corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed, lysine, and threonine for predominate use in animal feed products.

    While local economic experts are optimistic, others are concerned about the impact of the facility on the environment. Yet some observers and residents have voiced worry about the human rights and security implications of dealing with a Chinese company amid rising Western scrutiny over the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) abuses, including its forced labor of Uyghurs in the far west Xinjiang region.

    In a Jan. 31 letter to the editor of the Grand Forks Herald, Diana Hoverson said it “sounds like North Dakota is ready to deal with the devil!” To that end, Kennedy said he expresses many of the same concerns and the initial goal of his research into Fufeng was to simply look for possible ties to Uyghur forced labor. But his discoveries quickly escalated, which raised what he described as a “frightening issue of national security.”

    Ties to the Chinese Communist Party

    Li Xuechun has been the top executive at Fufeng Group since November 2016, fulfilling the roles of the principal founder, executive director, and chairman. He is also the controlling shareholder of the company.

    Li once served as a member of the People’s Congress of northeastern China’s Shandong Province. The People’s Congress is a rubber-stamp legislature of the CCP. According to Kennedy, Li served in this position for five years.

    In 2003, Li was honored for “Outstanding Achievement” by Shandong provincial authorities, which Kennedy said reveals that “he embodies the synthesis of economic and political goals of the Shandong region and the CCP.”

    The founder’s links to the CCP merit scrutiny, according to Kennedy, in particular given that the firm is set to establish its first base in the United States.

    In response to a question from The Epoch Times regarding Li’s ties to the CCO, Brandon Bochenski, mayor of Grand Forks, said the project has been approached with “a high level of due diligence.”

    “We have been in contact with our Governor, ND [North Dakota] state agencies, U.S. Senators, and U.S. House Representative regarding the project,” Bochenski said in an emailed statement.

    “We see economic benefits of a new wet-corn milling facility in the region. We are doing as much due diligence as possible and look to the appropriate federal agencies for national security insights and direction,” he added.

    The first RQ-4 Global Hawk arrives to Grand Forks Air Force Base May 26, 2011. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Johnny Saldivar)

    National Security Threat?

    National security is a key concern for Kennedy, who noted that the regime has, in recent years, become “very involved in major infrastructure projects” around the world, adding that some of their chosen locations have been “regions of strategic and national security importance.”

    The fact that the agreed location is only 13 miles from Grand Forks Air Force Base (AFB), North Dakota, is one concern. “The property in question is 370 acres and has a direct line of sight [to the air base],” Kennedy said.

    Starting in 2023, Grand Forks AFB will undergo construction and renovations to enable the base to become a future leader of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations. ISR operations often involve various clandestine activities, like drone or satellite surveillance, to monitor global threats.

    With a goal to complete the Fufeng facility by mid-2024, Kennedy believes Grand Forks, North Dakota, was likely the Chinese regime’s target all along.

    “This Chinese company may be coming into Grand Forks under the guise of setting up a food nutrient and additive manufacturing facility, but could be setting up the ability to passively and actively monitor one of the nation’s most valuable assets,” Kennedy said.

    “There are enormous amounts of data going to and from this location, and when there’s direct line of sight to the receiving or transmitting facility,” he said, adding “the options get an awful lot better for anyone to begin to create traps for that data.” He is also concerned about nefarious actors being able to monitor the physical movement of people, equipment, and aircraft to and from the base.

    John Lenkart, a retired senior executive at the FBI who was once responsible for counterintelligence threats posed by Chinese telecom companies, expressed some of the same concerns. He told The Epoch Times that the 13-mile distance of the facility to Grand Forks AFB is “a bit of a stretch” to gather communications data, but he doesn’t rule out the possibility. In fact, he suspects the Chinese regime could “find ways to get closer to the base without much notice.”

    But what any loyalist to the Chinese regime could easily retrieve, he said, are the flight patterns of aircraft or any other surveillance related to movement to and from the base. “Members of the Chinese regime have proven themselves smart enough to find efficient ways to accomplish this while operating under commercial cover.”

    Human intelligence operations are far from out of the question, Lenkart said. With a population of 56,500 people, Grand Forks is the largest city near the air base. “The Chinese regime could put people on the ground, in the city, to gather intel from senior enlisted officers and commissioned officers alike,” he said. “It’s this kind of personnel who will be living in and milling about the city on any given day.”

    “It’s the modus operandi of how the Chinese regime works, taking advantage of nearly any opportunity to infiltrate society and steal intellectual property and more,” Lenkart said. Given Fufeng Group’s ties to the CCP, it’s not implausible that the Chinese regime might send agents on espionage missions using the company’s manufacturing operations as a cover.

    Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) recently expressed similar worries. “The critical missions our military executes at Grand Forks Air Force Base must be protected,” Cramer said in a statement to Grand Forks Herald. “[T]he jobs and economic benefits for Grand Forks and North Dakota farmers must be balanced with the long-term concerns of China infiltrating our food supply chains,” the senator continued.

    For Cramer, the Fufeng Group project “requires due diligence,” because “China is not a reliable partner.”

    Kennedy agreed, saying “with all things considered, the local government and Grand Forks Air Force Base cannot afford to assume the best in [China].”

    Grand Forks Mayor Bochenski said he has taken some precautions concerning the facility’s proximity to the air base. He said the city has “been in contact with the Wing Commander of the 319th Reconnaissance Wing, who has assured us the company will be vetted at a higher level within the Air Force and appropriate national security departments.”

    The Epoch Times has reached out to the U.S. Air Force for comment.

    Workers walk by the perimeter fence of what is officially known as a vocational skills education centre in Dabancheng in Xinjiang region, China, on Sept. 4, 2018. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)

    Forced Labor Concerns

    Fufeng Group has denied that it or any of its subsidiaries has used Uyghur forced labor, and has produced a June 2021 third party audit of its only plant in the Xinjiang region, Xinjiang Fufeng Biotechnologies facility, that did not identify any use of forced labor.

    The issue of Uyghur forced labor has rising scrutiny in recent years amid mounting research showing its use in various industries in Xinjiang from cotton to materials for solar panels. The Chinese communist regime has detained over 1 million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in the region, subjecting them to forced labor, political indoctrination, torture, and other forms of abuse, in a campaign labeled as a genocide by the U.S. government and other Western parliaments.

    The United States last year became the first country to ban all imports from Xinjiang over forced concerns. Mayor Bochenski welcomed the measure, and pointed to the third party Sedex Members Ethical Trade Report (SMETA) conducted on Fufeng’s Xinjiang plant as evidence of its compliance.

    Yet, Kennedy, who reviewed the 80-page report, is not entirely convinced by the audit findings, which he described as “whistle clean.”

    Having done business in China for almost two decades and being familiar with the conditions of many of its factories, particularly those involved in making chemicals and biological products, Kennedy said he doesn’t rule out a biased report, one that would assure Western stakeholders in the Grand Forks facility that there were no ties to forced labor or otherwise poor working conditions.

    The primary reason for his concern is the location of the factory. Slightly west of the Urumqi Export Zone, he said Xinjiang Fufeng Biotechnologies is located about 1.5 miles from a known Uyghur forced labor and detention facility—the Toutunhe Facility #2.

    Kennedy also reviewed the company’s employment and financial records. SMETA reported,that there were “708 permanent employees in the factory” at the time of the audit. “Having had an opportunity to take into account the number of laborers and the cost of labor, the numbers simply don’t pencil out,” he said.

    In addition, Kennedy pointed to a photo provided by SMETA, on page 77, that he found odd for a modern facility. “In a package room photo, there are a bunch of 25-kilogram bags on the floor, [and] someone can be seen filling them and sealing them by hand—not by automation.”

    This kind of labor-intensive work, he said, would warrant the need for the large number of laborers and further heightens his concern for “shady labor practices.”

    Fufeng USA did not return a request for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 21:55

  • Twin "High-Impact" Winter Storms Could Wreak Havoc Across US on Presidents Week
    Twin “High-Impact” Winter Storms Could Wreak Havoc Across US on Presidents Week

    Following a fast-moving snowstorm late last week that sparked a massive 100 car and semi pileup in central Illinois, another round of winter storms could wreak havoc across the country during Presidents’ Day week. 

    Meteorologists at private weather forecaster firm BAMWX reports two rounds of snow and ice are expected from the West to the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast next week. 

    “Another week lies ahead of us, with multiple high-impact winter storms affecting millions,” said Kirk Hinz, COO and chief meteorologist at BAMWX. He said the first winter blast “comes late Monday into Tuesday as a low-pressure system strengthens from Oklahoma to Detroit, bringing widespread accumulating snow to the northern plains and upper Midwest, ice to Des Moines, near Chicago, Milwaukee, and SE Canada. Also on tap is excessive rainfall + severe weather from the Ark-La-Tex region to the Tennessee Valley.” 

    Hinz said the second winter storm could be even more powerful than the first and is expected later in the week. He said, “right now, we are targeting a potentially major winter storm developing again from the southern plains to the Northeast. This brings ice threats near Dallas, Oklahoma City, St Louis, Indianapolis, Louisville, Cleveland, Pittsburg, and Philadelphia…accumulating snow from Kansas City, Chicago, near Indianapolis, Detroit, and the interior Northeast.” 

    BAMWX’s weather impact map for next week outlines the two storms and possible timing. Nothing is locked in, so timing and impact areas could change. 

    For both storms, snowfall totals show the heaviest impact areas could be the Upper Plains, Midwest, and Interior Northeast through the end of next week. 

    Another component of the storms could be ice. It’s something to watch as accumulated ice total estimates show possible impacts from Texas to the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region. 

    Cold weather will be in place and plunge as deep as the Lower Plains. Across the Lower-48, average temperatures will decline on Tuesday and remain well below a 30-year trendline through the end of the month. 

    Hinz concluded that wintry risks across the Lower-48 could diminish as soon as early to mid-March. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 21:20

  • McMaken: The War Party Wants A New Cold War, & The Money That Comes With It
    McMaken: The War Party Wants A New Cold War, & The Money That Comes With It

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    In perhaps the most predictable column of the year, the Wall Street Journal last week featured a column by Walter Russell Mead declaring it’s “Time to Increase Defense Spending.”

    Using the Beijing Olympics and the potential Ukraine war to push for funneling ever more taxpayer dollars into military spending, Mead outlines how military spending ought to be raised to match the sort of spending not seen since the hot days of the Cold War. 

    Mead claims that “[t]he world has changed, and American policy must change with it.” The presumption here is that the status quo is one of declining military spending, in which Americans have embraced some sort of isolationist foreign policy. But the reality doesn’t reflect that claim at all. The status quo is really one of very high levels of military spending, and even outright growth in most years. This sort of gaslighting by military hawks is right up there with left-wing attempts to portray the modern economy as one of unregulated laissez-faire.  

    Rather, according to estimates from the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, military spending is set to reach a post–World War II high in 2022, rising to more than $1.1 trillion. That includes $770 billion spent on the Pentagon plus nuclear arms and related spending. Also included is current spending on veterans. Keeping veteran spending apart from defense spending is a convenient and sneaky political fiction, but veteran spending is just deferred spending for past active-duty members—necessary to attract and retain personnel. And finally, we have the “defense” portion of the interest of the debt, estimated to be about 20 percent of total interest spending. Taking all this together, we find military spending has increased thirteen years out of the last twenty and is now at or near the highest levels of spending seen since the Second World War. 

    This, not surprisingly, is not enough for Mead, who would like to see military spending much closer to the Cold War average of 7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), up from today’s spending of a little less than 4 percent. To get this average back up would require at least an extra $300 billion in spending, and possibly even spending levels not seen since the bad old days of the Vietnam War. In those days, of course, the US was busy spending enormous amounts of taxpayer wealth on a losing war that cost tens of thousands of American lives. The spending was so enormous that the US regime was driven to breaking the dollar’s last link to gold and subjecting ordinary Americans to years of price controls, inflation, and other forms of economic crisis. 

    But none of that will dissuade hawks like Mead, who pound the drum incessantly for more military spending. Note also that Mead uses the “spending as a percentage of GDP” metric, which is a favorite metric of military hawks. They use this metric because as the US economy has become more productive, wealthy, and generally larger, the US has been able to maintain sky-high military spending levels without growing the amount of spending in relation to GDP. The use of this metric allows hawks to create the false impression that military spending is somehow going down and that the US is being taken over by peaceniks. In reality, spending levels remain very high—it’s just that the larger economy has been robust.

    Yet even if we use this metric—and then compare it to those of other states with large militaries—we find that Mead’s narrative doesn’t quite add up. These numbers in no way suggest that the US regime is being eclipsed by rivals in terms of military spending. 

    For example, according to the World Bank, China—with a GDP comparable to that of the US—has military spending amounting to about 1.7 percent of GDP (as of 2020). Meanwhile, the total was at 3.7 percent of GDP in the United States. Russian military spending rose to 4.2 percent of GDP in 2020, but that’s based on a GDP total that’s a small fraction of the US’s GDP. Specifically, the Russian economy is less than one-tenth the size of the US economy. 

    Thus, when we look at actual military spending, we find the disconnect to be quite clear. 

    According to the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, in 2020 total Chinese military spending totaled approximately $245 billion in 2019 dollars. In Russia, the total was $66 billion. In the US, the total—which in the SIPRI database excludes veteran spending and interest—amounted to $766 billion in 2020. 

    In other words, total military spending by these presumed rivals amounts to mere fractions of total spending in the US. Moreover, as China scholar Michael Beckley has noted, the US benefits from preexisting military capital—think military know-how and productive capability—built up over decades. Even if the US and China (or Russia) were spending comparable amounts on military capability right now, this would not demonstrate any sort of actual military superiority in real terms. 

    But, as usual, Mead’s strategy is to claim that financial prudence is in fact imprudence with the usual refrain of “you can’t afford to not spend boatloads of extra money!” This claim is premised on the new domino theory being offered by anti-Russia hawks today. This theory posits that if the US does not start wars with every country that has pushed back against US hegemony—i.e., Iran or Russia—then China will see this “weakness” and start conquering countless nations within its own periphery. 

    The old cold warriors were telling us this back in 1965 also, insisting that a loss in Vietnam would place all the world under the Communist boot. Needless to say, that didn’t happen, and it turned out Vietnam had nothing to do with American national security. 

    But none of this will convince the usual hawks—for example, the Heritage Foundation—that there’s never enough military spending. 

    Prudence, however, suggests the US should be going in the opposite direction. At its most belligerent, the US regime should be adopting a doctrine of restraint—focusing on naval defense and cutting back troop deployments—while changing its nuclear posture to one that is less costly and more defensive. 

    The ideal solution is far more radically anti-interventionist than that, but a good start would be eliminating hundreds of nuclear warheads and freezing military spending indefinitely. After all, the US’s deterrent second-strike capability does not at all depend on keeping an arsenal of thousands of warheads, as many hawks insist. And geography today continues to favor US conventional defense, just as it always has. 

    Unfortunately, we’re a long way from a change toward much more sane policy, but at the very least we must reject the latest opportunistic calls for a new cold war and trillions more taxpayer dollars burned in the name of “defense.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 20:45

  • Biden Administration Pushes For Even More "Climate Roadblocks" For Upcoming Oil And Gas Projects
    Biden Administration Pushes For Even More “Climate Roadblocks” For Upcoming Oil And Gas Projects

    Having apparently learned nothing from oil prices skyrocketing out of control, President Biden is now intent on adding even more “climate roadblocks” to upcoming oil and gas projects in the United States.

    The administration has “altered the official federal policy on approving new interstate natural gas facilities and pipelines, requiring a climate consideration”, according to The Daily Signal. 

    Biden’s cabinet prompted the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to begin to “undertake a robust consideration” of the environmental impacts of fossil fuel projects seeking approval in the United States.

    Meanwhile, oil continues its ascent to $100/barrel. 

    The agency said that projects that cause 100,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year will be recognized as having a “significant impact” on the environment. It also said that, during the approval process it may now “consider the eventual emissions caused by both upstream production and eventual burning of gas transported in a pipeline requiring approval.”

    FERC Chairman Rich Glick commented: “I believe today’s long overdue policy statements are essential to ensuring the Commission’s natural gas siting decisions are reflective of all stakeholder concerns and interests. We have witnessed the impact on pipeline projects when federal agencies, including the Commission, fail to fulfill their statutory responsibilities assessing the potential effects of a project on the environment, landowners and communities.”

    As The Daily Signal notes, it is the first time the FERC has updated its natural gas policy since 1999. 

    Gillian Giannetti, Natural Resources Defense Council senior attorney, added: “For far too long, FERC has allowed private pipeline developers to call the shots, while cutting those affected by the projects out of the process. Communities and landowners will now have a say before new pipelines cut across their land or new compressor stations are built near their homes.”

    But not all Democrats were on board. Senator Joe Manchin commented: “Today’s reckless decision by FERC’s Democratic Commissioners puts the security of our nation at risk. The Commission went too far by prioritizing a political agenda over their main mission—ensuring our nation’s energy reliability and security.”

    “The only thing they accomplished today was constructing additional road blocks that further delay building out the energy infrastructure our country desperately needs,” he concluded. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 20:10

  • Ghislaine Maxwell's Family 'Fears For Her Safety' After Epstein "Pimp" Jean-Luc Brunel Found Hanged
    Ghislaine Maxwell’s Family ‘Fears For Her Safety’ After Epstein “Pimp” Jean-Luc Brunel Found Hanged

    Update (1944ET): Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat who served a stretch in federal prison and presumably knows a thing or two about how prisons work from the inside, has some questions now that Brunel has been found hanged in another apparent “suicide” tied to the Epstein case.

    It’s a mighty big coincidence that something like this could happen.

    “Who’s killing these guys in their prison cells? First Jeffrey Epstein was found dead in his cell, and now Jean Luc Brunel, a modeling agent with ties to Epstein, was found dead in his cell. I know about life in prison and this looks like more than a coincidence to me.”

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    And he’s not the only one asking questions.

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    And it begs another question: are the cameras monitoring inmates ever even on?

    * * *

    Update (1540ET): Reporters who have been following the Epstein case have started to weigh in on Twitter, noting that Brunel’s death was “a devastating setback for the victims.” 

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    Even the family of Ghislaine Maxwell, who is still imprisoned, now allegedly “fears for her safety” after the second death of a high-profile offender related to the case who was in a highly secure facility. 

    The NYPost reached out to Maxwell’s brother, Ian Maxwell, who told the New York tabloid that his family is extremely concerned after Brunel’s death – allegedly suicide by hanging, circumstances similar to those surrounding the death of Epstein himself – 

    “It’s really shocking,” Ian Maxwell, one of Ghislaine’s siblings, told The Post. “Another death by hanging in a high-security prison. My reaction is one of total shock and bewilderment.”

    In an interview from his home in London, Maxwell said the family “fears for her safety” at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn where she is being held.

    Maxwell is due to be sentenced in June. The family added that it’s unconscionable that Brunel wasn’t on suicide watch, and reiterated that Maxwell has never expressed being suicidal. 

    As we said below, Maxwell is due to be sentenced in June. Her attorney Bobbi Sternheim refused to comment.

    * * * 

    Stop us if you’ve seen this one before…

    Alternatively described as Jeffrey Epstein’s “best mate” and “pimp”, Jean-Luc Brunel, a former French modeling agent who has been imprisoned since 2020 on charges he aided Epstein’s sex-trafficking enterprise, has committed suicide in his cell, according to French newspapers Le Monde and Le Parisian.

    He was found hanged in his prison cell at La Santé in Paris just a week after Prince Andrew reached a multi-million dollar settlement with Virginia Giuffre, an Epstein trafficking victim whom Brunel was also alleged to have abused.

    Brunel, 76, had been indicted and imprisoned in December 2020 after being denied bail following accusations of rape and sexual assault of minors. including three 12-year-old sisters. He also faced investigation over human trafficking and being part of a criminal conspiracy amid his association with Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.

    Specifically, he is alleged to have flown the three sisters to America from Paris so they could be a “birthday present” for Epstein. He is known to have taken at least 25 trips on Epstein’s private plane, “the Lolita Express”. When Epstein was locked up in 2008, he was a regular visitor to his jail in Florida.

    Media reports have repeatedly described Brunel as a key member of Epstein’s inner circle. However, now that he is gone, it’s believed he will take many secrets to his grave. His old pal Epstein was also found “hanged” in his cell in Manhattan pending trial back in 2019. In that case, the guards who were supposed to be watching him later struck a plea deal to avoid jail time.

    Prosecutors have opened an investigation into Brunel’s cause of death.

    The French fashion agent was originally detained at Charles de Gaulle Airport as he was about to fly to Senegal.

    Brunel denied involvement “directly or indirectly” in any of Epstein’s alleged crimes in a statement he issued in 2015. It read: “I strongly deny having committed any illicit act or any wrongdoing in the course of my work.”

    But Giuffre alleged that Brunel “farmed out” modelling hopefuls to the pedophile, as well as other men, for sex. She also claimed she was once forced to have sex with Brunel at Epstein’s home. She also alleged that Brunel once set up a photo-shoot with seven Russian girls which Prince Andrew watched.

    She later claimed in an affidavit that Epstein had slept with “over 1,000” of Brunel’s girls.

    In 2019, French cops raided the offices of Karin Models, an agency founded by Brunel. They received evidence from several of his former victims who waived their anonymity to speak out.

    New Zealander Zoe Brock has claimed in statements made to French investigators that she was abused in his Paris home in the early 1990s. Meanwhile, Dutch model Thysia Huisman, who was 18 when she first stayed with Brunel, said she was raped by him in 1991.

    Brunel’s former associate, Ghislaine Maxwell (who allegedly introduced him to Epstein) was found guilty in the US back in December. Her sentencing has been tentatively set for June.

    Of course, the jokes practically write themselves…

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 19:55

  • Wall Street Hedges As 'Johnny Whipsaw' Rules Today's Markets
    Wall Street Hedges As ‘Johnny Whipsaw’ Rules Today’s Markets

    Via Global Macro Monitor,

    Do you not know? Have you not heard? Wall Street is an everlasting marketing machine.

    – Book of GMM

    Is The Street now day trading their market strategies? 

    Check out the opposing views from America’s largest bank, the eighth largest in the world.  No wonder markets are volatile.

    Johnny Whipsaw rules today’s markets. 

    My guess is they are practicing the Islamic proverb, whether they know it or not, 

    Trust in Allah but tie your camel.  

    Hedge your bets, speak cryptically and in double-entendre, claim you were correct whichever way the market turns, and collect the year-end bonus just as the Oracle Of CNBC does. 

    “We believe that equities still offer upside, and that the cycle is far from over,” the London-based strategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. In addition to the VIX signal they look for more gains in earnings, a bottoming in Chinese activity and say investor sentiment has become too negative of late.

    – Bloomberg

    Expectations about corporate earnings growth are quickly diminishing, JPMorgan Chase & Co. quant strategists said, warning that the gloom could spell more trouble for global stock markets after an underwhelming start to the year.

    – Bloomberg

    Secure Your Bonus, Boys And Girls

    Discount the cheerleaders, folks.

    Moreover, it’s about time we hold them accountable for helping drive stocks into the stratosphere (see chart below), as the extreme valuations are now a significant constraint on the Fed’s ability and willingness to stamp out the inflationary fires. 

    The Fed Put, Are You Shitting Me?

    Good Gawd, they are now even trying to estimate the level of the Fed put.  No doubt, the Fed should intervene when markets crash (such as 1987, 2008, and 2020) to stave off systemic risk and a financial collapse but, come on, not to prevent markets from regressing to their fair values.

    The timing of this move, known colloquially as the “Fed put”, is of course unclear. But the BoA survey suggests it will occur when the S&P 500 falls below 3700 index points.

    – Financial Review

    Do not these people realize the accumulation of all “Fed puts” over the years are a significant factor that has painted the economy into this god awful corner?.

    Moral Hazard

    This type of moral hazard behavior is what blew up some of my trading accounts in 1998, betting Russia was “too nuclear to fail.” and would be bailed out by the IMF and U.S. government.  Bill Clinton and Larry Summers disagreed. 

    At least, I was in good company,

    Tepper’s Worst Trade

    Roger Nachman , Benzinga Staff Writer   

    September 24, 2010 8:31am   

    David Tepper said his worst trade was in 1998, as Russia eventually defaulted.

    He believed that Russia should devalue its currency, but not default, and Russia wound up doing both.

    – Benzinga

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 19:35

  • Watch: Helicopter Crashes Into Ocean Off Miami, Narrowly Misses Crowded Beach
    Watch: Helicopter Crashes Into Ocean Off Miami, Narrowly Misses Crowded Beach

    A helicopter plummeted from the skies into the ocean waters off Miami Beach, narrowly missing a beach packed with tourists, according to AP News. 

    The Miami Beach Police Department (MBPD) tweeted a video of the helicopter crash. It appears the helicopter may have experienced engine issues as it quickly lost altitude and slammed into the waters just off the beach near 10th street. 

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    MBPD confirmed the incident occurred around 1310 ET, and two occupants were transported to Jackson Memorial Hospital. They were in stable condition. A third occupant was not injured in the crash. 

    Dozens of beachgoers whipped out their smartphones and captured the helicopter upside down in the water. 

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    MBPD said Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation Safety Board responded to the scene and took over the investigation. 

    Why don’t helicopters have ballistic reserve parachute systems in case of an emergency, so incidents like these don’t happen? 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 19:00

  • Why Is Biden Now Less Popular Than Trump?
    Why Is Biden Now Less Popular Than Trump?

    Authored by James Robbins, op-ed via USAToday.com,

    President Joe Biden is now so unpopular that he has fallen a bit below even Donald Trump’s dismal showing at this point in his presidency.

    Real Clear Politics average of presidential approval polls has Biden at 41% approval and 53% disapproval. Trump’s corresponding 2018 approval number edges Biden at 41.4%, with disapproval at 53.9%. 

    How did it come to this? Biden started out with much higher approval than Trump, who was hampered in his first year by the false Russian collusion narrative and highly negative news coverage. But by the start of Trump’s second year, his numbers began slowly to improve; Biden’s have continued to sink. Now those converging lines have crossed.

    “Lower than Trump” is hardly the first year result the White House expected. Biden received the most popular votes of anyone elected to the presidency. “Working class Joe” ran as a moderate who would restore sanity to Washington and move Americans forward together. He used the word “unity” eight times in his inaugural address.

    But then came the bait and switch. In office, Biden veered to the left, pursuing a “big and bold” progressive legislative agenda.

    Things looked good at first; Biden’s honeymoon period of robust poll numbers stretched into July.

    Mistakes began to pile up

    Then the hits began to pile up.

    The White House declared July 4 was Independence Day from the COVID-19 pandemic, but was blindsided by the delta variant, followed by the omicron wave. Public confidence in Biden’s ability to manage the crisis plummeted.

    In August, the botched pullout from Afghanistan and surprise Taliban entry into Kabul also drove numbers lower. Though many expected this to be a temporary blip, by Labor Day, Biden’s approval rating was firmly underwater and heading down.

    The legislative foibles of the fall and winter – the collapse of the Build Back Better bill, the defeat of the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and no progress on immigration reform, minimum wage or student debt relief – sent the message that this White House could not deliver.

    Then came inflation. The White House downplayed it, joked about it, said it was temporary, then slammed NBC News anchor Lester Holt for even asking about it.

    And as reports of worsening inflation began piling up, Biden touted the supposed “strongest first-year economic track record of any president in the last 50 years.” No wonder Obama adviser David Axelrod says it’s time for Biden to start “painting a credible, realistic picture.”

    Comparing the numbers in the latest Economist/YouGov poll with those of a year ago shows how decisively Biden has lost his mojo:

    ►His approval on managing the economy went from plus 13 to negative 7, with 70% now rating economic conditions either just fair or poor.

    ►59% now call inflation “very serious,” when a year ago it was such a nonissue the poll did not even ask about it.

    ►On handling the COVID-19 pandemic, Biden dropped from an optimistic plus 19 to negative 9.

    ►Biden’s general favorability plunged from plus 9 to minus 10, and his reputation for being a strong leader cratered from plus 7 to minus 30.

    With midterm elections looming this fall, Biden is below where President Barack Obama was when his party suffered the 2010 electoral shellacking. 

    [ZH: And Biden is tracking below Trump for current ‘favorability’…]

    Being at the bottom of the approval heap does not augur well for Biden’s 2024 reelection chances, either, should he choose to run, something a majority of Democrats would rather not see happen.

    Comeback is still possible

    But trends are not destiny. President Ronald Reagan went from low approval during the 1982 recession to the strongest reelection in modern history. On the other hand, George H.W. Bush was soaring at 80% approval at the start of his second year, and two years later was staring at defeat at the hands of a previously little known Arkansas governor.

    Biden could turn things around, but his government seems less to be charting its own course than the product of events beyond its control. And despite his historically bad approval numbers, the White House still seems unaware or unconvinced that Biden’s presidency is failing.

    Maybe miracles will happen. COVID will ebb, inflation will fade, the economy will bloom, Russia will retreat, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia will cave, progressives will rally, Republicans will cooperate, unity will prevail, and those sub-Trump approval numbers will shoot right back up.

    Maybe.

    But don’t bet on it.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 18:25

  • A Historical Guide To How Stocks Perform During Tightening Cycles
    A Historical Guide To How Stocks Perform During Tightening Cycles

    When Wall Street strategists – a vast majority of whom are bullish – address the touchy topic of how stocks react during a tightening cycle, the first thing they will point to is that the S&P 500 has traditionally seen positive returns during tightening cycles (in two of the last seven cycles, the S&P 500 peak occurred within the range of 6 months prior to the initial hike to 12 months after the initial hike), however this is almost always the case only when growth is rising, for example as indicated for example by a rising ISM. When the Fed is tightening into a slowing economy – i.e., when the ISM is falling like now– returns since 1950 are the flat and the worst of all possible permutations.

    But an even bigger risk to the upcoming tightening cycle, where banks are now rushing to outbid each other on how many rate hikes they think the Fed will let loose before sending the economy into a recession, is that as Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian writes, the “key risk today is that the Fed is tightening into an overvalued market.”

    Indeed, the S&P 500 today is more expensive ahead of the first rate hike than any other cycle besides 1999-00 (23x P/E vs. 30 P/E) and everyone remember what happened to the Nasdaq then. Making matters worse, this time the real cost of debt is negative, where in ‘99, the cost of equity was negative. The Fed Funds rate increased by 150bp during that cycle, and the market was up during the hiking, but the S&P peaked in March of 2000, and subsequently declined by 49% over the next 2.5 years

    With those two major risk factors in mind, here is what to expect during the upcoming tightening cycle, however brief it may be (and it will be brief, since the Fed Funds futures are already pricing in at least 2 rate cuts before 2024):

    … according to Bank of America, bond proxies fare worst, cyclical sectors fare best.

    The sectors which underperformed the index most consistently during historical tightening cycles were bond proxies (Utilities and Real Estate) along with Industrials (all with a 20% hit rate).Consumer Discretionary outperformed the S&P 500 in more cycles than any other sector but we see risks today on its high labor intensity amid wage pressures. Other sectors which have historically fared well are Tech, Energy, Materials, and Staples. But dispersion of sector alpha during hiking cycles was wide, indicating that factors rather than sectors may be a stronger explanatory variable.

    Value and Cash Return for tightening cycles: Factor performance in the initial 12 months of the Fed’s hiking cycles (or the entire length of the cycle if it was shorter than 12 months) indicate that Value (+7.1ppt vs. the equal-weighted S&P 500 index), followed by Cash Deployment (+5.6ppt) and Momentum (+1.6ppt) are superior factors. Risk factors lagged (-2.4ppt relative return). Returns-based Quality and Growth performed in line with the benchmark

    Low EV/EBITDA, High Free Cash Flow /EV and Low Price / Book fared well, with Low EV/EBITDA and High FCF/EV leading the index in every cycle, and Low Price / Book outperforming in 80% of the cases. Sectors which are currently inexpensive on these metrics are Energy Materials on EV/EBITDA; Energy and Health Care and Materials on free cash flow to EV and Financials and Energy on Price to Book. Technical/Momentum factors like 12-m and 1-m Reversal Price Return and 30wk / 75wk MA were also strong. See tables below.

    Energy consistently screens well on Value factors that outperform during hiking

    Performance when tiered by size:

    • Performance when the Fed hikes: Small caps have typically outperformed in the months leading into tightening and slightly underperformed over the course of hiking (by 1ppt – with both size segments seeing positive returns) – but unlike the majority of other hiking cycles, small caps are historically cheap vs. large caps today.
    • Multiples reflecting the risks: Small caps’ P/E has typically risen 5-6% in the three months ahead hiking and compressed 8% during hiking. But the Russell 2000 P/E is already -12% since Nov., and the relative P/E is its lowest since 2000.
    • 10yr more important than Fed Funds rate: Small vs. large performance is much more highlight correlated with changes in the 10-year (positive relationship) than changes in the Fed Funds rate (virtually no correlation).
    • Faster tightening not more detrimental to small: BofA finds no consistent relationship between the pace of hikes and relative size performance (above).

    Asset classes and Fed balance sheet shrinkage

    According to BofA, during times of QT, history suggests that  stocks>bonds, Value>Growth, large = small.

    Factor Performance: Free Cash Flow is King

    Stocks with attractive free cash flow (based on FCF/EV and FCF yield) have been among the best performers during historical Fed hiking cycles. FCF/EV ailed during the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) period but has also been the best long-term stock selection factor out of all the Value factors we track.

    Free Cash Flow to EV factor suffered during the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) period…..but could begin to outperform again

    Value factors have historically performed best during Fed hiking cycles (shown earlier). And work on Late Cycle regimes suggests that Free Cash Flow to EV was the most alpha-generative factor in Late Cycle periods historically.

    FCF/EV for the long-run: Free Cash Flow to EV factor outperformed other Value factors since 1986.

    What offers the highest FCF/EV? Energy, Financials and Health Care (our three overweight sectors).

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 17:50

  • Noland: Existing Global Order Is "One Serious Catalyst Away From A Megaquake"
    Noland: Existing Global Order Is “One Serious Catalyst Away From A Megaquake”

    Excerpted from Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin (emphasis ours),

    Bubbles are sustained only by ever increasing amounts of Credit.

    The most pernicious Bubbles are those fueled by “money” – perceived safe and liquid Credit instruments.

    Bubbles are mechanisms of wealth redistribution and destruction.

    Structural impairment caused by Bubble excess escalates over the life of the boom.

    The pain and dislocation unleashed during the bust is proportional to the excesses of the preceding boom.

    Though we’re in uncharted waters when it comes to global Bubble Dynamics, I’ll suggest that geopolitical risks expand exponentially over time.

    My thesis holds that 2022 is a pivotal year for a historic multi-decade Bubble period. On multiple fronts, things have come to a head. Today, more than ever, historical context is invaluable for making sense of current developments, while also recognizing the dynamics behind unfolding instability, turmoil and Crisis Dynamics.

    Following 1999’s manic blow-off excess, I thought the Bubble had burst in 2000. I had to reverse course in 2002, warning that Fed reflationary policies were unleashing a “mortgage finance Bubble”. The “Moneyness of Credit” – the transformation of Trillions of risky loans into perceived safe and liquid AAA securities – was instrumental in, at the time, unparalleled Credit and risk-intermediation excesses.

    I thought the bubble had burst in 2008. I reversed course (again) in 2009, warning of an unfolding “global government finance Bubble” – the “Granddaddy of all Bubbles.” The so-called “Great Financial Crisis” (GFC) gave cover to a perilous – and fateful – escalation of government inflationism.

    I feared QE – the wholesale inflation of central bank Credit – would prove a slippery slope. In the markets, Bernanke’s coercion of savers into the risk markets created a dynamic whereby the markets would become only more integral to system financial conditions, perceived wealth and economic performance. I worried about a “moneyness of risk assets” dynamic that would see the Fed entrapped in market liquidity and price backstopping operations, crystallizing the already dangerous market misperception that securities entail minimal risk. Stock prices always rise over time, with occasional downdrafts sure to induce Federal Reserve reflationary measures.

    While memories have faded, mortgage finance Bubble consequences were horrible, levying a steep cost on our social wellbeing. From my analytical perspective, the global government finance Bubble created a whole new level of risk. For one, it unleashed capricious inflationary forces globally. Importantly, the custodian of the world’s reverse currency succumbing to rank inflationism (central bank Credit and government debt) freed nations everywhere to do the same.

    Post-GFC reflationary measures opened the monetary floodgates. I don’t see how China’s incredible Bubble is sustained without U.S. QE, massive federal deficits, and ongoing Bubble excess. China’s international reserve holdings inflated from about $200 billion to $1.5 TN during the mortgage finance Bubble period, only to then rise parabolically to a high of $4.0 TN in 2014 (as the Fed ratcheted up QE2). Massive reserves, with enormous and unending trade surpluses with the U.S., empowered China to recklessly inflate Credit without the traditional risk of currency instability.

    During a Bubble’s upswing, perceptions hold that the pie is getting bigger. The forces of cooperation, coordination and integration hold sway. But eventually, the reality of wealth inequities is unmasked. Stagnation and fear of a shriveling pie foment animosity, disintegration and conflict.

    China doesn’t become so powerful – financially, economically, militarily, geopolitically – without the protracted U.S. (and then global) Bubble.

    For today’s heated rivals, the days of cooperation are over. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

    Hostile to a U.S. global order it views as deeply unjust and contra to its interests, Russia is jubilant over the opportunity to partner closely with a likeminded Beijing. Russia gains the security of a vast market for its energy resources outside of U.S. influence, while a military alliance creates the most powerful opposition to U.S. global dominance in decades. Without his harmonious partnership with Xi, Putin doesn’t take the risk of such a confrontational approach with Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO. Might the U.S. and its allies being bogged down with a war in Europe embolden Beijing’s Taiwan aspirations?

    President Biden believes Putin has “Made the Decision” to invade Ukraine. The situation in eastern Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating. A car explosion at a government building. Gas pipelines bombed. Satellite imagery showing aggressive Russian military positioning along the Ukraine border – in Russia, Belarus and Crimea. Russian-supported separatists announcing plans to evacuate women and children to Russia. Aggressive cyberattacks.

    While the administration stresses it’s not too late for diplomacy, the situation appears increasingly dire. U.S. intelligence believes Russia is now executing its plan of “false flag” attacks and provocations (i.e. accusations of Ukrainian genocide) that it will use as justification for an invasion. “Nearly half of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine are in attack position.” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin: “I don’t believe it’s a bluff.”

    Chinese Bubble developments this week were no less ominous. A Friday Bloomberg headline: “Crisis in China’s Property Industry Deepens With No End in Sight.” And Thursday: “China Builders Miss More Deadlines as Yango Fails to Pay Coupons.” “Chinese high-yield dollar bonds fall 1-3 cents on the dollar Thursday…, putting them on track for a fourth day of declines.” One cannot overstate the significance of the ongoing spectacular collapse of China’s massive (and massively levered) developer industry.

    From the nineties “tech” Bubble to the grander “mortgage finance” Bubble to the unbelievably colossal and historic “global government finance” Bubble. Bubble inflation not only made it to every nook and cranny across the global landscape. Wild excess went to the very foundation of global finance – central bank Credit and government debt. This is it. Nearing the end of the road. There’s no fledging Bubble waiting to heroically save the day this time around.

    Moreover, the amount of monetary inflation necessary to sustain aged financial and economic Bubbles has fueled dangerous inflationary dynamics. The Fed and global central bank community are being forced into action, with the tightening of finance necessary to rein in inflation, placing myriad Bubbles in danger. There is today acute fragility throughout global finance. “Money” and Credit have been severely degraded. Financial manias and speculative leverage have destabilized markets and economies virtually across the board. Gross inequities have destabilized societies and international relationships.

    In sum, the existing global order appears one serious catalyst away from a megaquake.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 17:15

  • Lumber Prices Have Never Been This High Ahead Of Spring Building Season
    Lumber Prices Have Never Been This High Ahead Of Spring Building Season

    The spring construction season is about to begin as homeowners face some of the highest lumber prices ever for this time of year. 

    March lumber futures in Chicago closed at $1,270 per 1,000 board ft. in Chicago on Friday, up more than 36% since the beginning of the month due to tighter Canadian supplies ahead of the spring building season. 

    Bloomberg reports the increase in lumber prices comes as Canfor Corporation, the world’s third-largest integrated forest products company based in Vancouver, British Columbia, announced a supply cut of 150 million board feet of production due to mountain pine beetle infestation that has devastated trees. Simultaneously, West Fraser Timber Co, the world’s largest timber company, reported port congestion and truck and rail car shortage make it challenging to transport lumber to buyers. 

    “In Western Canada, these transportation challenges are really unprecedented in both scale and duration,” West Fraser Chief Executive Officer Ray Ferris told investors on an earnings call last Wednesday. 

    Over three decades, lumber prices have never been higher for this time of year as the first and third-largest timber companies report supply woes.

    Ferris said lumber and plywood shipments fell 20% year-over-year, and pulp shipments plunged 30% in January. He also said shipping “products in a timely manner remains challenged,” warning the company might be forced to take “unscheduled downtime” due to the transportation problems.

    Tight lumber supplies ahead of the spring construction season in North America are likely to add more housing inflation to not just prospective homebuyers but also homeowners who want to remodel their kitchens or bathrooms. 

    Add lumber to the list of the “shortage of everything,” as Goldman Sachs’ head commodity strategist and one of the closest-followed analysts on Wall Street, Jeffery Currie told Bloomberg TV last week, “We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 16:40

  • Is It 'Monetization' Yet, Dr. Bernanke?
    Is It ‘Monetization’ Yet, Dr. Bernanke?

    Authored by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report,

    Eleven years ago, shortly after the onset of QE 2, Ben Bernanke gave us his definition for “monetization” of the debt, telling Congress (hat tip, Grant’s):

    Monetization would require a permanent increase in the money supply to pay the government’s bills through money creation.

    What we’re doing here is a temporary measure which will be reversed, so that at the end of this process, the money supply will be normalized, the Fed’s balance sheet will be normalized and there will be no permanent increase, either in money outstanding or in the Fed’s balance sheet.

    At the time, The Fed’s balance sheet was approaching $2.5 trillion.

    Today, it stands at nearly $9 trillion, more than triple the figure from a decade ago.

    And so it only seems fair to ask, ‘Is it monetization yet, Dr. Ben?’

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 16:10

  • Geopolitical Crises: What Happens Next In Markets?
    Geopolitical Crises: What Happens Next In Markets?

    With the rank smell of geopolitical crisis again overpowering the air (not to mention the bidstack in the S&P500), Deutsche Bank’s head of thematic research Jim Reid thought it would be a good opportunity to highlight a table the bank’s equity strategists Binky Chadha and Parag Thatte did a few years ago examining what happens to the S&P 500 around domestic political and geopolitical events.

    The two show that these events have typically been short-lived, with a median sell-off of -5.7%. They tend to take around 3 weeks to reach a bottom and further 3 weeks to recover prior levels. On average the market was +6.5% and +13% higher from the bottom 3 and 12 months after.

    The other point the DB duo makes is that the underlying economic context tends to ultimately dominate. He highlights that:

    • The oil embargo of 1973, with clearly visible negative economic impacts, saw the biggest selloff in the S&P 500 and the slowest equity market recovery since World War II.

    • The Vietnam and two Gulf wars by contrast occurred against the backdrop of economic recoveries and saw sharp selloffs followed by  long-lived rallies.

    • The selloffs following President Kennedy’s assassination and President Clinton’s impeachment proceedings occurred during economic expansions and were again very short lived (down -4% but regaining their prior levels in under a week) and saw strong rallies thereafter, while the impeachment proceedings against President Nixon, which occurred in the middle of a recession saw a sharp selloff and rebound but this gave way to a renewed slide after.

    As Reid concludes, “if you believe this template, much might depend on what you think the momentum was before the geopolitical sell-off.”

    The point is that geopolitical events have rarely left a deep scar on markets but even before events escalated around Ukraine, markets were trying to come to terms with inflation and rate hikes. That – and not the ongoing theatrical false flag farce in Ukraine – will be the dominant theme for markets in H1 and likely beyond.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 15:40

  • How Markets Tank & Gold Rises
    How Markets Tank & Gold Rises

    Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

    Critical warning signs from the credit and rates markets are being ignored by tough-talking experts while gold bides its time before it rises in a global financial crisis mathematically too sick to save.

    It is fascinating to watch market pundits, policy makers, commercial bankers and other media-supported experts talk tough on the need to fight inflation via rate hikes and central bank balance sheet cuts.

    In fact, such chest-puffing would be comical if not otherwise so tragic.

    The current war cries to battle persistent rather than transitory inflation (of which we warned a year ago) amount to far too little, far too late.

    Like the “science” behind mask or no mask, last year’s omni-changing Fed narrative as to temporary or long-term inflation was a theater of incompetency bordering upon dishonesty, as inflation was as plain to foresee as the rising money supply.

    Today, a similar tragi-comedy of open confusion and equally open hypocrisy about tough vs. accommodative (or hawkish vs. dovish) central banking is all the rage.

    In our mind, however, all this “taper talk” is little more than public posturing rather effective policy—as it once again ignores math, history and commonsense.

    The Gluttons Suddenly Demand a Diet?

    After years and years of dovish Fed support which has led to the most inflated asset bubbles in modern history (as well as the greatest wealth disparity since the French revolution), the very engineers and beneficiaries of this mega bubble are suddenly chiming in with calls for restraint and discipline?

    That’s rich…

    It seems they can no longer deny the year-over-year 7% inflation data, but what they still seem to be ignoring is the far more un-natural inflation in the S&P…

    As I like to say: The Ironies abound.

    The very players who gave us the fake liquidity and engineered low rates to create this monster bubble are suddenly screaming for the tapering and rate hikes which will kill it.

    As to both the math-ignoring comedy as well as open hypocrisy which underlies such hawkish chest-puffing, I gave two headline examples from Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater in my last report.

    Such post-battle courage is nothing new from the experts, and I’ve openly warned elsewhere that there is a genuine danger in trusting the group-think advice of the so-called “experts.”

    Of course, the same critiques could be leveled against our own expertise (or bias?) when it comes to gold ownership in the backdrop of an openly distorted and crumbling financial system.

    We get this. Fair enough.

    But if one simply looks past the immense fog of de-contextualized tweets, incomplete data, endless macro debates and hawkish virtue signaling, the predictable (and dark) future of the global financial system in general, and gold’s bright horizon in particular, is a clear lighthouse rather than a precious metal bias.

    The $300T Elephant in the Room

    How can we be this certain in a world where nothing is certain?

    The answer boils down to the honest but hard math of record-breaking debt.

    At $300T and counting, total global debt levels have long ago crossed the Rubicon of sustainability, and no amount of “stimulus” or promised GDP growth (currently stagnating at 1/3 global debt levels) will ever prevent the disastrous consequences to come.

    As history and math confirm, the toxic relationship between desperate sovereigns and eager bankers promising that a fatal debt sickness can be cured with more debt has never, not ever, been proven true.

    Instead, the hard yet blunt reality (as David Hume warned centuries ago) is that too much debt always destroys economies.

    The fact, moreover, that today’s global and sovereign debt levels are the highest ever recorded in the history of capital markets is perhaps worth some honest examination, as history’s debt-to-disaster pattern is mathematical rather than political or academic.

    This is true not only of places like Yugoslavia, Venezuela, Argentina, Weimar Germany, 18th century Paris or 3rd century Rome, but equally so of the once-powerful US of A and current home to the 21st century’s world reserve currency.

    With combined household, corporate and public debt now flirting with the $90T marker and US true interest expenses now greater than 100% of incoming tax receipts, it’s frankly almost impossible to understand why and how this ticking debt timebomb is not otherwise a daily headline?

    Looking for Flowers, Ignoring the Manure

    Part of the answer lies in the ever-reliable and ever-desperate attempts by bankers, politicos and prompt-readers to see only what they want to see (and you to see).

    Thanks to massive deficit spending, care packages to Wall Street, handouts to banks and free checks to Main Street in 2020, it is no surprise, for example, that private sector balance sheets aren’t as ugly as pre-2020.

    This is something the experts want you to see. Fair enough.

    And as for US Households, their debt service ratios have in fact seen a corollary and understandably comforting decline:

    But such lauded and frequently acclaimed progresses (or data flowers) in the US debt landscape completely ignores the far more toxic debt levels (i.e., manure piles) at the government level, as Uncle Sam’s $30T bar tab has gone from embarrassingly drunk to just plain difunctionally sick.

    The Fog of Distorted Markets

    But like the fog of war, the fog of market distortions can often make it hard for sincere investors to see the guiding lights (or golden lighthouse).

    As for the guiding reality of an American policy that produces infinitely more debt-drunk IOU’s (i.e., Treasury bonds) than it does income streams, you may be wondering who is buying those IOU’s?

    The graph below makes this unmistakably clear.

    As the IOU’s keep coming (rising blue line), the purchasing of those IOUs from foreign parties (lagging red line) has tanked.

    What this data confirms is simple: Since the 2008 crisis, the primary buyers of US debt are its central and commercial banks, and all with money created by a mouse-click.

    How Markets Tank

    Meanwhile, as those some banks and bankers now puff their chests calling for 2-7 rate hikes in 2022 or G4 central-bank balance sheet reductions of at least 2T in the same year, have any of them paused to ask this simple question:

    If they taper QE bond support and thus rates and yields subsequently spike (as they do and will), what happens to that once-accommodated bond market and otherwise debt-soaked stock market?

    Well, we’ll tell you plainly: They tank.

    Shark Fins Emerging from the Bond Market Depths

    If this seems theoretical rather than inevitable, just look at what has already been hiding in plain sight, namely tanking global bonds and hence rising global yields.

    Prior to recent “tough talk” from on high, the global bond market enjoyed so many years of extreme central bank purchasing of otherwise crappy sovereign and corporate bonds that for the first time in history, bond yields (which move inversely to price) were negative (to the whopping tune of $19T) globally.

    Yet in just the past few weeks, the mounting tough-talk from on high has so thoroughly frightened this hitherto “accommodated” bond market that bonds have been tanking in price, which means yields have been rising like Lazarus.

    As a result, the levels of global negative yielding debt has been cut literally in half in the span of just a single week (!), as the following chart from Bloomberg confirms:

    But as anyone who tracks historically-unprecedented levels of debt-soaked and debt-driven risk assets knows, rising bond yields are to debt-driven asset bubbles what approaching shark fins are to surfers: Bad news.

    Given that the combined balance sheets of the G4 central banks exceeds $30T, one has to ask how they plan to pay for the rising cost of their own government debt as they get tough and “taper” their QE-hot money printers and send rates (and hence debt costs) higher?

    We think those pumping their hawkish chests today will be hiding in a corner tomorrow.

    Gold Making Telling Moves

    With mounting distortions, ignored warnings and too-little-too-late tough-talk and long-overdue tightening policies comes equally obvious changes.

    Traditionally and normally, for example, rising yields and rising interest rates were seen as good for the USD and less good for gold and just about any other asset class.

    But what is equally clear after years and years of central bank intervention, accommodation, experimentation and distortion, is that nothing is normal nor traditional anymore.

    One of gold’s many attributes is its historical honesty, and as far as we see it, as gold rises, it calls “BS” on the recent tough-talk from on high.

    Markets, for example, expected gold to fall hundreds of dollars given the recent and unprecedented yield spikes.

    Instead, the gold price rose.

    This is because gold knows what Lagarde and Powell are afraid to confess, namely: Systems are falling apart.

    Gold knows that tough-talk from on high is ignoring much higher debt levels, the catastrophic implications of which are rising (like bond yields and shark fins) ever more to the surface with each passing day.

    Gold also knows that the tapering in vogue today will not last, and that the balance-sheet reductions promised now will be followed by balance sheet expansions (i.e., more money printing) later.

    Take the Bank of Japan; they’ve effectively gone full-on QE to keep 10-Year yields down with now unlimited purchases of JGB’s.

    Why?

    Because they know what the Fed won’t tell you: Broke sovereign can’t afford rising yields.

    Gold, in other words, sees the aforementioned disconnect between U.S. bond issuance and bond demand, which means more U.S. “money printing” and more Yield Curve Controls are inevitable, as the cornered Fed literally has no choice but to “turn Japanese.”

    While gold rises long-term, in the interim gold can still fall and/or gyrate near-term.

    But as currencies and financial systems, from discredited banks to grotesquely at-risk derivatives markets lose credibility in the bond market’s death spiral, gold’s role and value will be measured in grams and ounces not useless dollars and euros.

    Much disorder brings extreme price moves. But the informed, patient and prepared buy their insurance before rather than after the fire.

    Toward this end, we’ve also noticed some interesting and very big buyers of gold of late, and one wonders who they/it might be and what they/it know is coming?

    Hint: We think it’s a sovereign buyer…

    As currencies expand, and in turn debase, as bubbles rise, and in turn crash, as pundits squawk and in turn vanish, and as debt rises and in turn destroys, gold is always the patient real asset which, unlike any other, gets the last word over the increasingly discredited words we are hearing from on high today.

    For those who know as much about history and math as they do about currencies and debt bubbles, the daily gold price is never a concern, as the long-term play is always clear and always the same: Gold is the ultimate insurance against currencies and systems already burning to the ground.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 15:10

  • Germany's Spiegel Asks "Is Vladimir Putin Right?" Over NATO Expansion
    Germany’s Spiegel Asks “Is Vladimir Putin Right?” Over NATO Expansion

    With all eyes on the situation unfolding at the Ukraine border – as separatists in Donbas reporting intensified shelling amid a “general mobilization” of military-age males – Germany’s left-leaning Spiegel asks a question fundamental to the entire conflict…

    “Vladimir Putin insists that the West cheated Russia by expanding NATO eastward following the end of the Cold War. Is there anything to his claims? The short answer: It’s complicated.“

    The essence of the argument is this; In September 1993, Russian President Boris Yeltsin penned a long letter to US President Bill Clinton, which railed against the eastward expansion of NATO at a time when Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic were interested in joining the organization. Yeltsin argued that the Russian public saw this “as a sort of neo-isolation” of Russia, and that the “Two Plus Four Treaty” linked to Germany’s 1990 reunification “precludes the option of expanding the NATO zone into the East.”

    As Spiegel writes, “There is essentially no other historical issue that has poisoned relations between Moscow and the West as much in the last three decades as the disagreement over what, precisely, was agreed to in 1990.”

    Since the 1990 letter, NATO has accepted 14 countries in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, which the Kremlin has complained of haaving been duped every step of the way.”

    According to current Russian President Vladimir Putin, “You cheated us shamelessly.“

    “You promised us in the 1990s that (NATO) would not move an inch to the East,” he said late last month in comments used to justify his current demands for written guarantees that Ukraine will never be accepted into the Western alliance.

    But that’s not all. At the end of January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote an open letter to his Western counterparts in which he cited additional understandings. In particular, he focused on the Charter for European Security, rooted in agreements reached in 1990. East and West had concurred at the time that every country has a right to freely choose the alliance it wished to be part of, while also emphasizing the “indivisibility of security.” Later, that became “the obligation of each State not to strengthen its security at the expense of the security of other States,” as Lavrov explicitly mentions in his letter. -Spiegel

    Ukraine, meanwhile, wants to know how fast they can join.

    Muddied waters

    Post-1990 NATO expansion isn’t black-and-white though, according to Spiegel – and is muddied by a chorus of ‘he-said-she-said’ between prominent officials from the early 1990s.

    There is no lack of accounts from a variety of witnesses to the various discussions between the West and Moscow following the fall of the Berlin Wall. In 1990, a veritable army of politicians and high-ranking officials from Moscow, Washington, Paris, London, Bonn and East Berlin met for discussions on German reunification, on the disarmament of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact, and on a new charter for the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) – which became the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 1995. -Spiegel

    For example – former French foreign minister, Roland Dumas, said that a pledge was made that NATO troops wouldn’t advanced closer to the former Soviet Union’s territory. Former US Secretary of State James Baker denied it – saying no such promise was ever made. Yet, several diplomats under Baker have contradicted him.

    Former US ambassador to Moscow, Jack Matlock, has said that “categorical assurances” were given to the Soviet Union that NATO wouldn’t continue expanding eastward.

    Meanwhile, the Soviet Union’s last leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, said on one occasion that German Chancellor Helmut Kohl had made assurances that NATO “will not move one centimeter further east.” Another time, Gorbachev said that “the topic of NATO expansion was never discussed,” while saying that the West had violated the spirit of various agreements regardless.

    What’s more, US government documents declassified in 2017 appear to confirm that assurances were given.

    Luckily, there are plenty of documents available from the various countries that took part in the talks, including memos from conversations, negotiation transcripts and reports. According to those documents, the U.S., the UK and Germany signaled to the Kremlin that a NATO membership of countries like Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic was out of the question. In March 1991, British Prime Minister John Major promised during a visit to Moscow that “nothing of the sort will happen.” Yeltsin expressed significant displeasure when the step was ultimately taken. He gave his approval for NATO’s eastward expansion in 1997, but complained that he was only doing so because the West had forced him to. -Spiegel

    Der Spiegel also published a document on Friday from March 1991 which shows US, French, UK and German officials discussing the pledge not to expand to Poland and beyond. The document contains multiple references to “2+4” talks regarding German unification – which makes clear that NATO would not expand east of Germany.

    The document was found in the UK National Archives by Boston University political science professor, Josh Shifrinson.

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    “We made it clear to the Soviet Union – in the 2+4 talks, as well as in other negotiations – that we do not intend to benefit from the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Eastern Europe,” reads the document, citing US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Canada, Raymond Seitz.

    “NATO should not expand to the east, either officially or unofficially,” he added.

    A UK official mentioned the existence of a “general agreement” which held NATO membership for eastern European countries as “unacceptable.”

    “We had made it clear during the 2+4 negotiations that we would not extend NATO beyond the Elbe [sic],” according to West German diplomat Juergen Hrobog. “We could not therefore offer Poland and others membership in NATO.”

    Minutes of a March 6, 1991 meeting of German, UK, US and French diplomats discussing NATO expansion

    Der Spiegel also notes a January 1990 initiative from German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher, who said in a Jan. 31, 1990 speech that NATO should issue a statement saying: “Whatever happens to the Warsaw Pact, there will be no expansion of NATO territory to the east and closer to the borders of the Soviet Union.”

    Genscher’s American counterpart, James Baker, said he “wasn’t exactly elated” at the idea, but admitted it was “the best we had at the moment.”

    In early February, Genscher and Baker presented the idea in Moscow independently of one another. The German foreign minister assured the Kremlin that: “For us, it is a certainty that NATO will not expand to the east. And that applies generally,” clearly meaning beyond just East Germany. The American, for his part, offered “ironclad guarantees that NATO’s jurisdiction or forces would not move eastward.” When Gorbachev said that NATO expansion was “unacceptable,” Baker responded: “We agree with that.” -Spiegel

    Baker and Genscher have since downplayed the events, with Baker saying that his exclusive focus had been on Germany, and Genscher later saying he wanted to simply “gauge” the Soviet response.

    The message was clear. If Gorbachev were to provide his acquiescence for German reunification within NATO, the West would aim at establishing a Western security architecture that took Moscow’s interests into account.

    Informal assurances were not unusual during the Cold War. U.S. political scientist Joshua Shifrinson compares the 1990 discussions with the verbal agreements made between the Americans and Soviets that led to the easing of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

    …

    Given the documents available, some even speculate that the West intentionally misled the Soviets from the very beginning. A few weeks after his trip to the Kremlin, in any case, Baker expressly told Genscher that some Eastern European countries were eager to join NATO, engendering Genscher’s response that the issue “shouldn’t be touched for now.” A formulation which kept all options on the table for later. -Spiegel

    NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, however, said that the alliance “has never promised not to expand,” and told Spiegel that “there has never been such a promise, there has never been such a behind-the-scenes deal, it is simply not true.”

    NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ©  Reuters / Ints Kalnins

    Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic were admitted into NATO in 1999, right before launching an air war against Yugoslavia which put NATO forces along the Russian border for the first time.

    In 2004, the former Soviet republics of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia joined the Organization, putting NATO even closer to Russian assets.

    Now, Russia is demanding that NATO publicly renounce expansion into the former Soviet Republics of Georgia and Ukraine, and recall US forces to the 1997 boundaries of the bloc.

    The US and NATO have told Putin to pound sand, and that NATO’s “open door” policy is fundamental.

    Which brings us to today. Ukraine wants to join NATO, while the threat implied by the buildup of Russian forces at the border couldn’t couldn’t be more clear: call it off or we’re taking Kiev.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 14:40

  • ConocoPhillips Sells Excess Bakken Gas To Bitcoin Miner
    ConocoPhillips Sells Excess Bakken Gas To Bitcoin Miner

    Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

    ConocoPhillips is selling natural gas that would have been otherwise flared to a third-party Bitcoin miner in the Bakken in North Dakota, the U.S. oil and gas producer said this week.

    ConocoPhillips has one pilot project in Bitcoin mining currently in operation in the Bakken, the second-largest major shale play after the Permian, a ConocoPhillips representative said in a statement to CNBC.

    “ConocoPhillips has one bitcoin pilot project currently operating in the Bakken, where gas that would otherwise have been flared is routed to a bitcoin processor owned and managed by a third party,” a spokesperson for ConocoPhillips told CoinDesk in an emailed statement.

    Selling excess natural gas from production in the Bakken fits the company’s pledge to end routine flaring by 2030.

    ConocoPhillips has endorsed the World Bank Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative and set a target to reduce methane emissions intensity in 2020. The oil and gas company set an ambition to reduce operational greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net-zero by 2050. ConocoPhillips has a target to get to zero routine flaring by 2030, with an ambition to get there by 2025.

    Flaring emissions make up only 8 percent of ConocoPhillips’s total greenhouse gas emissions, yet the target “will drive continued near-term focus on routine flaring reductions across our assets,” it says.

    By selling the extra gas to a third-party Bitcoin miner, ConocoPhillips also gets paid for the gas it would have otherwise just wasted and flared.

    Cryptocurrency mining is an energy-intensive endeavor, and recently, some U.S. Democratic lawmakers sent letters to six major cryptocurrency mining companies, asking them to detail their high energy usage, the possible impact on the environment, and the role in driving up power bills for U.S. consumers.  

    Riot Blockchain, Marathon Digital Holdings, Stronghold Digital Mining, Bitdeer, Bitfury Group, and Bit Digital were sent letters by the lawmakers, who were concerned about “their extraordinarily high energy usage,” Senator Elizabeth Warren said last month.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 14:10

  • Ottawa Arrests Top 100 As "Freedom Convoy" Organizers Face Judge For First Time
    Ottawa Arrests Top 100 As “Freedom Convoy” Organizers Face Judge For First Time

    As the number of “Freedom Convoy” protesters arrested in Ottawa grows to top 100, organizers Tamara Lich, Pat King and Chris Barber – who were arrested Friday as police cracked down on the still-numerous Parliament Hill protesters – are set to face a judge for the first time on Saturday. They will be arraigned on a number of  mostly minor charges, including counseling to commit mischief, counseling to obey a court order, and obstructing police.

    Police broke up the protests using a number of aggressive techniques Friday as they moved to break up what had become a four-week occupation. Ottawa Police eventually denied that they had used tear gas on protesters – instead they said protesters had launched gas at them. Police said no gas had been used Friday and Saturday.

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    This looks a little “gas”-like to us…

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    Barber has already been released on bail, with Canadian Justice Julie Bourgeois releasing him on a $100,000 bond and on the conditions he leave Ontario by next Wednesday and not publicly endorse the convoy or have any contact with the other protest organizers. Both King and Lich will appear in court on Saturday. The bail amount in Barber’s case was notably high considering the charges, the most serious of which is the obstructing police charge.

    King, Lich and other organizers of the “Freedom Convoy” protests also saw a temporary freeze to their bank accounts, including even their bitcoin and cryptocurrency funds, following an Ontario Superior Court ruling on Thursday.

    As of early Saturday, police say so far at least 21 vehicles were towed on Friday as hundreds of officers – some of them riding on horseback – fanned out across Parliament Hill and the surrounding area to remove any resistant protesters from the streets, and forcing the removal of the hundreds of big rigs and trucks that have been there for weeks.

    Ottawa police interim chief Steve Bell told a Friday evening news conference that clearing the area would take time, but the operation was “deliberate and methodical” and police were in control on the ground.

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    He said no serious injuries had been reported, and those arrested had been charged with various offenses including mischief, adding that police were still urging demonstrators to leave peacefully.

    Yesterday’s crackdown included several instances of police brutality that were caught on video. In one video, an elderly woman can be seen being “trampled” by police horses. Early reports claiming she had died proved incorrect.

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    In another incident of violence, a police officer can be seen smashing the butt of a rifle into a protesters face.

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    For those who have been arrested: those helmets and batons that police carried were for “your safety” not theirs.

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    Meanwhile, inside the House of Commons today MPs will resume debate on the use of the Emergencies Act to respond to the “illegal” protests and street blockades. The debate began on Thursday but Government House leader Mark Holland said in a Twitter post that House leaders from all parties had agreed to cancel Friday’s session thanks to a recommendation from Parliament security.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/19/2022 – 13:40

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Feb 19

Today’s News 19th February 2022

  • Is The Confrontation Over Ukraine Joe Biden's "Wag The Dog" Moment?
    Is The Confrontation Over Ukraine Joe Biden’s “Wag The Dog” Moment?

    Authored by Andrew Bacevich via TheNation.com,

    While some wars may be necessary and unavoidable, a war pitting Russia against Ukraine—and potentially involving the United States—doesn’t make the cut. Yet, should such a war occur, some members of the American commentariat will cheer. They have yearned for a showdown with Vladimir Putin. The depth of their animus toward Putin and the hyperbole it inspires is a bit of a puzzle that deserves examination.

    A veteran New York Times correspondent charges that Putin “has put a gun to the head of the West.” In an op-ed recently published in the Times, a former US national security official accuses President Biden of “sending the message that the United States is afraid of confronting Russia militarily.” “In an era when fascism is on the march,” a Boston Globe columnist warns, “much more may hang in the balance” than simply the security of a single country on the far eastern fringe of Europe.

    A sense of impending doom punctuates the taunts: With unnamed fascists gathering outside the city gates and the very survival of the West at risk, the sitting president succumbs to cowardice. Whence does such overheated language come? What does it signify?

    One obvious explanation is the unvarnished Russophobia pervading the ranks of the American political elite. With roots going at least as far back as the Bolshevik Revolution, disdain for Russia only deepened across several decades of Cold War. Although the Cold War ended a generation ago, this habitual animus survives fully intact, nowhere more so than in Washington. Demonizing Russia is an easy sell.

    In international politics, most crimes, no matter how heinous, are forgivable. Even those perpetrated by the Nazi regime do not figure in day-to-day US relations with the Federal Republic of Germany. Nor, as it turns out, does the United States hold Ukraine’s collaboration with the Third Reich against it.

    On that score, Russia is an exception, with members of the American establishment disinclined either to forgive or to forget past transgressions attributed to the Soviet Union. Note how the Soviet-American partnership that was crucial to defeating Nazi Germany has all but vanished from our collective consciousness. We revere Churchill; we revile Stalin. That Putin is a former KGB officer presumably tells us all we need to know about him.

    But let me suggest that our present-day antipathy toward Russia derives from something deeper than an unwillingness to let go of old grudges. The real issue has less to do with them than with us. More specifically, it centers on a desperate need to refurbish the concept of American exceptionalism. Nowhere is that need felt more powerfully than among members of the foreign policy establishment.

    American exceptionalism is the conviction that in some mystical way God or Providence or History has charged America with the task of guiding humankind to its intended destiny. Embedded in the phrase is the essence of our collective identity.

    We Americans—not the Russians and certainly not the Chinese—are the Chosen People. We—and only we—are called upon to bring about the triumph of liberty, democracy, and humane values (as we define them), while not so incidentally laying claim to more than our fair share of earthly privileges and prerogatives.

    American exceptionalism assumes a Manichean world in which good is pitted against evil, with our side assumed to embody good. Packaged with highfalutin sentiments of the sort to which recent US presidents (except one) routinely—and perhaps even sincerely—pay tribute, American exceptionalism justifies American global primacy.

    But we Americans have a problem. Of late, the United States has not appeared especially exceptional. If anything, the reverse is true.

    Who in their right mind would identify with a nation that has in the not-so-distant past engaged in a costly and arguably illegal war in one country (Iraq), while waging a 20-year-long war in another (Afghanistan) that ended in humiliating defeat? In what sense does a nation that loses over 900,000 of its citizens to a pandemic, whose dysfunctional central government annually spends trillions more than it takes in, and that cannot even control its own borders qualify as exceptional? Can a nation in which the richest 1 percent control 16 times more wealth than the bottom 50 percent be deemed exceptional? Or one in which a major political party characterizes violent insurrection as “legitimate political discourse”? As for a nation that elects Donald Trump president and may do so again: The term “exceptional” hardly seems appropriate.

    “Reckless,” “incompetent,” “alienated,” “extravagantly wasteful,” and “deeply confused” more accurately describe our predicament.

    How to get out of the political, cultural, and economic mess in which we find ourselves—yes, how to make America great again—is the overarching question of the day.

    Those eager for a showdown with Russia over Ukraine offer one answer to that question: Putting a brutal bully in his place will go far toward restoring American exceptionalism’s lost luster. It’s “wag the dog” in modified form: militarized assertiveness in faraway places promising a shortcut to redemption.

    Don’t believe it. The people gunning for a showdown with Putin come from the ranks of those who two decades ago were gunning for a showdown with Saddam Hussein, while promising a happy outcome.

    There is an alternative approach far more likely to yield positive results. That alternative approach posits a reformulation of American exceptionalism based not on muscle flexing in faraway places but on modeling liberty, democracy, and humane values here at home. The clear imperative of the moment is to get our own house in order. Stumbling into yet another needless war won’t help.

    As for Ukraine, the crisis there poses minimal risk to the West, which possesses ample strength to defend itself against Russian aggression. Rather than flinging macho-man insults about who will stand up to Vladimir Putin, wisdom suggests that the United States should acknowledge the possibility that Russia possesses legitimate security interests of its own, those interests extending to the question of whether Ukraine has a friendly or unfriendly orientation. As for fascists, the ones deserving concerted American attention tend to be homegrown.

    Elevating Russia to the status of Enemy Number 1 is actually a diversion from matters of far greater immediate importance. It’s time for Americans to wake up to the fact that we face far more pressing concerns.

    *  *  *

    Andrew J. Bacevich is president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. His new book, Paths of Dissent: Soldiers Speak Out Against America’s Long War, co-edited with Danny Sjursen, is forthcoming.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 23:40

  • Japan's 'Fugaku' Still Dominates The World's Top Supercomputers
    Japan’s ‘Fugaku’ Still Dominates The World’s Top Supercomputers

    In June 2020, Japanese supercomputer Fugaku zipped past all competitors to claim the top spot in the twice-annual ranking of the world’s most powerful computational machines released by research project Top500.

    Fugaku, which was developed by Fujitsu in cooperation with the federal Riken research lab, was able to perform almost three times as many computations per second as former leader of the list, U.S.-based supercomputer Summit.

    One and a half years later, the ranking remains mostly unchanged except, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz points out, for the addition of a new U.S.-based supercomputer, Perlmutter, in rank five. The machine located at the University of California Berkeley’s NERSC energy research center carries out computation for climate models, material sciences, energy physics and others.

    Infographic: The World's Top Supercomputers | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    At the time, Fugaku did not only top the ranking in the number of computations per second – so-called TeraFLOPS – but in all four categories that supercomputers are judged on by the project. According to the Riken lab, no other computer had achieved this feat so far. Fugaku had the most cores of all computers ranked, the highest theoretical peak performance for computations and the highest power capacity. In the meantime, the fourth-ranked supercomputer, Chinese Sunway TaihuLight, acquired more cores – 10.6 million compared with Fugaku’s 7.6 million.

    Supercomputers are used to run complicated simulations that involve a large number of variables. Common uses include economic and climate modeling, neurological research and nuclear science. In the case of Fugaku, the machine’s power is also used to research the coronavirus, more specifically to run simulations of how respiratory droplets move through the air in different settings like offices or train carriages.

    The list of the top 8 supercomputers in the world includes one Dell, one Nvidia and two IBM machines as well as two Chinese supercomputers run by the Chinese government and German supercomputer Juwels Booster Module owned by IT company Atos.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 23:20

  • America's Ruling Regime Doesn't Fear Disinformation… It Fears Truth
    America’s Ruling Regime Doesn’t Fear Disinformation… It Fears Truth

    Authored by Ben Weingarten,

    Casting critics as terrorists and threatening to sic the most powerful, pervasive and sophisticated security state in the history of the world on them is of course not about defending democracy or protecting the truth — it’s about intimidating democratic opposition into silence and submission to an official narrative.

    In Joe Biden’s America, attempting to cancel Joe Rogan is just counter-terror policy.

    This is because our ruling class — in the name of “defending democracy” — classifies those who question the regime on any matter of consequence as a threat to the homeland, and pledges to pursue them accordingly.

    Our ruling elites have engaged in an overt war on wrongthink masquerading as a domestic counter-terror mission since at least Jan. 6, 2021.

    As part of this effort, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recently issued a speech-chilling National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin.

    It claims the U.S. is in a “heightened threat environment fueled by several factors, including an online environment filled with false or misleading narratives and conspiracy theories, and other forms of mis- dis- and mal-information.”

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    Among the greatest contributors to the current “threat environment,” according to the bulletin, is the “widespread online proliferation of false or misleading narratives regarding … COVD-19.”

    It would appear the Biden administration considers the ivermectin-hocking, tequila-swigging, Bernie Sanders-supporting Rogan to be public enemy number one on this issue.

    Shortly after hosting dissenters from COVID orthodoxy including Drs. Peter McCullough and the then-recently deplatformed Robert Malone on his podcast, Rogan found himself the subject of a cancel campaign contrived by washed-up musicians, non-medical doctors and corporate media whose ratings he has crushed.

    But it wasn’t just these parties out for blood.

    No less than the president of the U.S, his press secretary and surgeon general contributed to the anti-Rogan jihad, calling for war on COVID “misinformation and disinformation.”

    This effort was, to put it mildly, disingenuous. We know how seriously to take the administration’s views on COVID “misinformation and disinformation” because by its own standards the White House, and its media mouthpieces, have been the most powerful and prolific purveyors of “misinformation.”

    The administration has flip-flopped on virtually every aspect of the coronavirus to positions that its social media adjuncts used to ban people over. It did so not because “the science” has changed, but because the politics have changed.

    Biden’s White House says its critics are dangerous — not to the public, but to its rule, as if that rule is equivalent to America or democracy itself, as Dr. Anthony Fauci is to science.

    As the DHS bulletin notes, the first key driver of the “heightened threat environment” is the “proliferation of false or misleading narratives, which sow discord or undermine public trust in U.S. government institutions.”

    Never mind what those government institutions themselves have done to sow discord or undermine public trust, like, say, calling for Twitter and Facebook to censor people.

    It’s the critics, the dissenters — those with no monopoly on force or multi-trillion-dollar budgets — who are the real scourge.

    The bulletin lists as another potential threat “false or misleading narratives regarding unsubstantiated widespread election fraud” — perpetuating the narrative of “insurrection” so central to the effort to persecute wrongthinkers, while eliding that Democrats‘ own election integrity-eroding measures destroyed confidence in the system.

    Previous Biden-era bulletins similarly focused on COVID-19 and election integrity, but the latest one — in a new twist — also claims that calls for violence have been tied to anger over “the evacuation and resettlement of Afghan nationals following the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan.”

    So it’s not just questioning the merits of mask and vaccine mandates, or skepticism over the security of mass mail-in elections, but doubts about the wisdom of dropping unvetted refugees from a terror-dominated backwater into the middle of your town that could get you in trouble with the security state.

    This threat bulletin, like its no less disturbing predecessors, flows naturally from the Biden administration’s first-of-its-kind National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism.

    That strategy calls for confronting long-term contributors to domestic terrorism, including:

    “… enhancing faith in government and addressing the extreme polarization, fueled by a crisis of disinformation and misinformation … We will work toward finding ways to counter the influence and impact of dangerous conspiracy theories that can provide a gateway to terrorist violence.”

    Linking speech that does not comport with regime orthodoxy to terror, and using that pretext to police thought — with an armed “Ministry of Truth” operating out of our national security and law enforcement apparatus — therefore manifestly is “counter-terror” policy

    Casting critics as terrorists and threatening to sic the most powerful, pervasive and sophisticated security state in the history of the world on them is of course not about defending democracy or protecting the truth, but intimidating democratic opposition into silence and submission to an official narrative.

    The regime evidently believes it must maintain a monopoly over the American mind to maintain a monopoly on power.

    Joe Rogan threatened that power, and therefore constituted a danger. The threat was that he elicited insights from guests who challenged the regime’s credibility on all manner of issues related to COVID, and millions of people heard it.

    Trump and his allies likewise threatened that power, and therefore constituted a danger. They were — and continue to be — pursued like terrorists, as the House January 6 Committee wields the full force of the federal government to investigate them, surveil their communications and audit their dealings.

    Why? Trump and his allies called the regime a failure, stated undeniable truths that resonated with Americans to justify that view and supported policies aimed at rectifying said failures that would disempower the ruling elites.

    The most meek and unthreatening of January 6 defendants now face extreme, hyper-political prosecutions. They are being made an example of not because they ever posed a credible threat to the regime’s power, but as a signal to the millions of peaceful, patriotic Americans who might — through their collective speech, advocacy and voting.

    The same goes for the parents outraged over anti-scientific and detrimental COVID-19 policies, and overcritical race theory indoctrination in schools. The Department of Justice threatened to pursue them like jihadists — not because they are jihadists, but because parents awakened to the regime’s corrupt monopoly on the all-important institution of education could break that monopoly and end the careers of the politicians who support it. They must therefore be chilled.

    The war on wrongthink is not about left or right. It’s about who rules: a sovereign people or the elites who deign to lord over us.

    The ruling class — the “defenders of democracy” — sees citizens on the left and right opposed to its agenda and refuses to address their concerns peaceably. Instead, it calls them terror threats and pursues them using the full power of the public and like-minded private sectors.

    The ruling class does not fear misinformation and disinformation. It fears truth, particularly the truth about its own rot, corruption and incompetence, which calls into question its authority.

    This leaves us with a question: when everyone, from unorthodox presidents to curious podcasters to caring parents are deemed existential threats to the regime, how strong is the regime?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 23:00

  • Bill Gates Credits Natural Infection With Doing "A Better Job" Of Bolstering COVID Immunity
    Bill Gates Credits Natural Infection With Doing “A Better Job” Of Bolstering COVID Immunity

    Speaking on Friday during the Munich Security Conference, Bill Gates, Microsoft’s founder and chairman, discussed how the threat posed by the COVID pandemic had “dramatically lowered”…while making a startling admission: that natural infection and spread was more effective at bolstering human immunity than vaccines.

    Speaking to CNBC’s Hadley Gamble during the annual conference in Germany, Gates, the co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, told the audience that a potential new pandemic would likely stem from a different pathogen than that belonging to the coronavirus family (maybe Ebola, perhaps?).

    But he added that advances in medical technology should help the world do a better job of fighting it – if investments are made now.

    “We’ll have another pandemic. It will be a different pathogen next time,” Gates said.

    Two years into the coronavirus pandemic, Gates said the worst effects have faded as huge swathes of the global population have gained some level of immunity.

    Its severity has also waned with the latest omicron variant.

    Amazingly, after years of denial, Gates seemed to acknowledge – albeit in a roundabout way – that the infectiousness of the omicron variant had played the key role in boosting human immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

    According to Gates, it’s already “too late” to reach the WHO’s  goal to vaccinate 70% of the global population by mid-2022. Currently 61.9% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine) but that’s okay, however, Gates said, as in many places, the virus itself, which creates a level of immunity, and has “done a better job of getting out to the world population than we have with vaccines.”

    “The chance of severe disease, which is mainly associated with being elderly and having obesity or diabetes, those risks are now dramatically reduced because of that infection exposure,” he said.

    Finally, Gates insisted that the cost of being “prepared” for the next pandemic wouldn’t be that difficult. For instance, Gates said, having a mutable mRNA vaccine platform is one way vaccine-makers might be able to prepare themselves.

    “The cost of being ready for the next pandemic is not that large. It’s not like climate change. If we’re rational, yes, the next time we’ll catch it early.”

    He added that the world should move faster in the future to develop and distribute vaccines, calling on governments to invest now.

    “Next time we should try and make it, instead of two years, we should make it more like six months,” Gates said, adding that standardized platforms, including messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, would make that possible.

    Despite becoming an object of public scorn during the pandemic, Gates and his foundation are undeterred: the billionaire is already plowing millions of dollars into a foundation helping to prepare for ‘the next’ pandemic.

    Gates, through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, has partnered with the U.K.’s Wellcome Trust to donate $300 million to the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which helped form the Covax program to deliver vaccines to low- and middle-income countries.

    The CEPI is aiming to raise $3.5 billion in an effort cut the time required to develop a new vaccine to just 100 days.

    The whole operation is amusing since nobody knows what the next pandemic will be.

    Or…do they?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 22:40

  • Cultural Shift: Nearly Two-Thirds Of Americans Oppose New Gun Control Laws
    Cultural Shift: Nearly Two-Thirds Of Americans Oppose New Gun Control Laws

    Submitted by The Machine Gun Nest (TMGN).,

    It seems the fallout from the insanity of 2020 continues to stay in the public’s mind. Even a year out from the panic buying craziness, riots, movement to defund the police, and the election of Joe Biden, Americans seem to have a new take on gun control.

    According to a new poll, 63% of Americans support enforcing current gun laws instead of passing new gun control into law.

    This change shouldn’t be surprising for anyone who’s lived through the past two years. With 2020 & 2021 bringing COVID, Lockdowns, panic buying, the massive BLM riots, and the movement to defund the police, it’s no surprise that Americans are starting to oppose new gun control in more significant numbers.

    A statistic that has helped shape that polling data is that millions of Americans became first-time gun owners during the pandemic. I experienced this rush of new gun buyers at The Machine Gun Nest, where we became completely inundated with first-time gun buyers. Many of those buyers had no idea that firearms required a background check (and a wait time here in Maryland). This process was a rude awakening for many of these same first-time buyers that everything they had learned about firearms being “easier to buy than books” was all just corporate media lies.

    What’s even more interesting is that the data changes come primarily from non-traditional gun owners, people who identify as political independents, and even Democrats. Recently there was a 15 point drop in support for strict gun control laws from independents, according to Gallup. Considering that 50% of all new gun owners in the past two years are women, and many more are minorities, it makes sense that attitudes are shifting.

    It’s a drastic change compared to pre-pandemic thinking. Just a few years ago, in 2018, after the mass shooting in Parkland, FL, support for gun control was at its highest point, with 66% of the country supporting new gun control legislation.

    We also know that activist district attorneys like those in Philadelphia and other liberal cities often refuse to charge or prosecute criminals on firearms charges, leading to higher rates of violence in those same cities. In Philadelphia, out of 1,810 firearms cases in 2021 (that’s more than 4 per day), 61.5% of cases were dismissed or withdrawn. Only 2.6% of those same cases (that’s 47 total) were found guilty at trial. We at The Machine Gun Nest can speak from experience being in Maryland. Baltimore City is an example of these failed policies. It’s no wonder with the failure even to prosecute violent criminals with gun crimes that Maryland residents are desperate to buy and carry firearms. It’s also no wonder that the people of the United States, especially in these liberal jurisdictions, want the law enforced!

    Another significant movement creating conversation and awareness that may have contributed to this new poll is the number of counties that have become 2nd Amendment Sanctuaries. The 2nd Amendment Sanctuary movement first gained attention when, in early 2020, the Governor of Virginia moved to pass an “Assault Weapons Ban,” among other gun control measures. This gun control push triggered a massive response from the citizenry of VA (one of the most armed states per capita in the country). It caused many of Virginia’s counties to become 2nd Amendment Sanctuaries, where the local government refuses to enforce gun control laws. This idea became so popular that 62.5% of counties in the United States are now 2nd Amendment Sanctuaries.

    So why does all this matter? Well, the country’s mood has shifted when it comes to firearms. This cultural change is reflected in government, where Democrats don’t want to pursue gun control legislation whatsoever! A few days ago, Joe Biden marked the fourth anniversary of the mass shooting in Parkland, FL, by calling on Congress to pass new gun control legislation.

    But Democrats don’t seem to be interested, as reported by The Hill – Democrats don’t seem to feel that there’s enough support for new gun control to push the legislation!

    Gun owners can take solace in the fact that, at least in Congress, the gun control agenda has stalled. This stalemate is, of course, why the Biden administration has been pushing gun control via executive fiat, using the ATF to circumvent the legislative process altogether. With hotly contested midterms and Presidential approval ratings plummeting, the Biden Administration will be looking for any scapegoat to rally their base back to vote. We’ve seen it recently with Biden trying to “rally around the flag” with the situation in Ukraine, and we know that gun control is food for the base so to speak. I’d expect Biden to announce that he’s “solved the ghost gun issue” this spring when the ATF releases their new unconstitutional rules on frames and receivers. 

    The flip side of the gun control agenda stalling at the Federal level is that States will then take the issue into their own hands. We currently see some of the most egregious local gun control pushes yet, with San Jose, CA, requiring that gun owners purchase liability insurance for their firearms and pay a fee, which will be donated to an anti-gun group! Meanwhile, in Boulder, Colorado, local legislators have entirely thrown out State Preemption to pass a city-level assault weapons ban, literally balkanizing the State of Colorado legally in the process.

    With the verdict for NYSRPA v Bruen on the horizon and many more legal battles ahead, 2022 will be a very interesting year for gun rights.

    Video: A breakdown of how the country’s mood towards firearms has shifted in just two years. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 22:20

  • The Number Of EV Models Will Double By 2024
    The Number Of EV Models Will Double By 2024

    Buyers in the market for an EV will have plenty of options to choose from over the next few years.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu details below, it’s expected that there will be 134 models on sale in the U.S. by 2024—more than double of what’s available today.

    This wave of new electric models is being primarily driven by legacy automakers, many of whom are entering the EV market for the first time. For industry leader Tesla, it means that there is greater competition on the way.

    This greater variety of vehicles comes at a time when interest in owning an electric vehicle is rising. In a recent survey from Morning Consult, the majority of American adults (51%) now report being very or somewhat likely to purchase a fully electric vehicle over the next decade.

    Millennials are the most likely to be considering an EV as their next vehicle (70%).

    The Latest EV Push: Trucks

    Truck buyers have been waiting for their turn to experience electric power, and legacy brands like Ford, Chevrolet, and GM are ready to deliver.

    Models include the recently announced Chevrolet Silverado EV, which should arrive shortly after the F-150 Lightning and Rivian R1T electric pickups. GM is also teasing its upcoming Hummer EV, which promises a whopping 1,000 horsepower.

    Pickups and SUVs typically generate higher margins for automakers, so this next wave of EV models is an opportunity they won’t want to miss.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 22:00

  • At Least 10 States Pondering Over 40 Bills Tightening Voter ID Requirements
    At Least 10 States Pondering Over 40 Bills Tightening Voter ID Requirements

    Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    In 10 state legislatures across the nation, more than 40 bills proposing new or more stringent voter identification requirements for registration or in-person voting had been introduced as of Feb. 11, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL).

    An election official hands a voter back their ID at the Madison Community Center polling place before he can cast his ballot in the Democratic presidential primary on Super Tuesday on March 3, 2020, in Arlington, VA. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

    Missouri and Virginia account for 24 of the 40 bills.

    Missouri lawmakers are pondering 13 voter ID bills as part of a package spearheaded by Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, who has called for a bill requiring a state or federal photo ID to vote in person.

    The 11 bills in Virginia are in response to the 2021 adoption of the Voting Rights Act of Virginia before Republicans won the governorship and retook control of the House of Delegates last November.

    The Voting Rights Act of Virginia “effectively eliminated ID requirements when Democrats had control. The ID requirement is still on the books but the photo ID part is not enforced,” Honest Elections Project Executive Director Jason Snead said.

    “The effort being made in Virginia is to just enforce the state’s photo ID law,” said Snead, whose group works with the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) in crafting elections integrity bills carried by state lawmakers nationwide.

    The measures in Virginia, Missouri, and beyond are part of a broader national trend of reforming election practices. Of the 45 state legislatures currently in session across the nation, at least 40 are debating elections-related bills, according to NCSL.

    The left-leaning Brennan Center for Justice at New York University said on Feb. 7 that, as of Jan. 14, at least 18 bills in five states impose new identification requirements for absentee ballot applications. The requirements include either a Social Security number, a driver’s license number, or voter record number.

    Bills in Mississippi and South Carolina shorten time periods for submitting absentee ballot applications. Eight bills in Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey would establish in-person voter ID requirements for the first time.

    The Indiana House has passed a measure pushed by Secretary of State Holli Sullivan, requiring voters to submit their driver’s license number or the last four digits of their social security number when requesting an absentee ballot digitally.

    Two New Hampshire bills would eliminate options for voters to cast regular ballots by signing an affidavit. New Hampshire Rep. Mark Alliegro (R) said the bill, sponsored by Sen. Bob Guida (R), addresses longstanding concerns with the state’s same-day registration and voting system.

    Under state law, those not registered can show at polls, present “evidence of their identity,” age, and U.S. citizenship with a state-issued driver’s license or ID card, birth certificate, passport, or naturalization papers. If a voter does not have documents, they sign a “qualified voter affidavit,” swear they are who they are, and promise to provide verification within 90 days.

    “You could come here from another state, another country—you could land here from Mars—and vote in New Hampshire elections that same day,” said Alliegro, who is sponsoring a bill requiring all ballots be hand-counted.

    “You sign an affidavit and are supposed to provide that proof within 90 days. Then the (vote) tally is made, the elections are certified and 90 days later, you haven’t” received verification, he said.

    “This happens thousands of times in this state every election,” Alliegro said.

    Pennsylvania Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman (R), said with the state’s Supreme Court’s January ruling nixing a 2019 election law, he’ll file a bill boosting voter ID requirements that the law precluded.

    “Look, most people believe in requiring voter ID. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a state-issued driver’s license or ID; in Colorado, people can use their electricity bills,” said Corman, among Republican candidates seeking the GOP nod to challenge Democrat Gov. Tom Wolf in November’s gubernatorial election.

    “There will be some sort of ID requirement,” he said. “We could land (during the session) on what that is supposed to look like.”

    A bill filed in Arizona by state Sen. Wendy Rogers (R) requires the secretary of state to seek an exemption from the federal law—upheld in court rulings—that bars proof of citizenship to vote. It’s one of several Arizona bills related to voter ID.

    Arizona Sen. Kelly Townsend (R), who has filed bills related to election audits, election equipment, and contractors, said stricter voter ID requirements are needed to “stop making fraud easy.”

    “Something we are hearing is people saying they’re never going to vote again if these problems aren’t fixed,” she said. “We want to restore confidence in our elections. Right now, the confidence isn’t there.”

    Arizona voters may also weigh in on the proposed constitutional amendment tightening voter ID requirements in November if lawmakers adopt a resolution to place a ballot measure before voters.

    Michigan voters also may be presented with a voter ID ballot measure after Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer vetoed a 2021 bill imposing new requirements. Secure MI Vote proponents need 340,047 voter signatures by March to get it on November’s ballot.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 21:40

  • Putin To Personally Oversee Massive Nuclear Drill On Saturday With Tensions On Knife-Edge 
    Putin To Personally Oversee Massive Nuclear Drill On Saturday With Tensions On Knife-Edge 

    The Russian military confirmed on Friday that it will move up nuclear weapons exercises which had been previously scheduled to take place later the year, as a warning to the West as the Ukraine crisis grows hotter. Typically the drills take place in the fall, but will now be part of the current climate of ‘muscle flexing’ as the region remains on the brink.

    The massive drills of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces will take place Saturday, and President Putin will directly oversee it, according to the defense ministry. There were signs earlier in February that the drills would be moved up in time, as the FT wrote: “Russia generally holds its annual nuclear exercises — which involve testing intercontinental ballistic missiles from land, sea and air — in the fall. But the US believes Putin has decided to hold them earlier this year as a show of strength.“

    Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov notified allies as well as Western countries about the Saturday drills in a Friday statement, saying it should be no cause for concern. Likely the maneuvers will center on the Black Sea Fleet out of the Crimean Peninsula, which will be taken by Ukraine and NATO to be highly provocative. A senior Biden administration official responded to the announcement that it was definitely “escalatory”. 

    “Practice launches of ballistic missiles are part of regular training,” Peskov said. “They are preceded by a series of notices to other nations via different channels.”

    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has issued an open invitation for Russia to host deployable nukes on Belarusian soil amid the Ukraine standoff, has been personally invited to watch the nuclear drills with Putin. 

    According to Congressional testimony from last week by Joint Chiefs chairman General Mark Milley and director of national intelligence Avril Haines, the Pentagon believes the exercises are a “show of force” aimed at both Ukraine and its Western backers in NATO.

    Analyst Rebeccah Heinrichs with the hawkish D.C. think tank Hudson Institute described that given Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, “It would be an extremely provocative and harbinger of messages if they did it concurrently with an invasion.”

    For the past few weeks as Russia-Ukraine-NATO tensions ratcheted up dramatically, and now with the White House unusually talking about ‘Russia false flag’ scenarios, tensions have been on a knife edge. At the same time, Western media has been filled with shrill headlines warning of a WWIII coming due to “Russian aggression”. The US is now giving estimates that up to 190,000 Russian troops have surrounded Ukraine from Russia’s south and in Belarus.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    This despite Ukraine’s leaders themselves attempting to calm the rhetoric, stating their belief that the Russian side has yet to reach necessary troop level capability for a real large-scale invasion. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 21:20

  • Will Xi Jinping's "End Of Days" Plunge China & The World Into War?
    Will Xi Jinping’s “End Of Days” Plunge China & The World Into War?

    Authored by Gordon Chang via The Gatestone Institute,

    • Xi Jinping, China’s mighty-looking leader, has an “enormous array of domestic enemies.” — Gregory Copley, president of the International Strategic Studies Association and editor-in-chief of Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, to Gatestone Institute, February 2022.

    • Xi created that opposition. After becoming China’s ruler at the end of 2012, he grabbed power from everyone else and then jailed tens of thousands of opponents in purges, which he styled as “anti-corruption” campaigns.

    • Beijing is panicking, adding nearly a trillion dollars in total new credit last month, a record increase…. When the so-called “hidden debt” is included, total debt in the country amounts to somewhere in the vicinity of 350% of gross domestic product.

    • Not surprisingly, Chinese companies are now defaulting. The debt crisis is so serious it can bring down China’s economy—and the country’s financial and political systems with it.

    • In the most recent hint of distress, “Fang Zhou and China”… wrote a 42,000-character essay titled “An Objective Evaluation of Xi Jinping.” The anti-Xi screed, posted on January 19 on the China-sponsored 6park site, appears to be the work of several members of the Communist Party’s Shanghai Gang faction, headed by former leader Jiang Zemin. Jiang’s faction has been continually sniping at Xi and now is leading the charge against him.

    • Xi’s problems, unfortunately, can become our problems. He has, for various internal political reasons, a low threshold of risk and many reasons to pick on some other country to deflect elite criticism and popular discontent.

    • The Communist Party of China has always believed its struggle with the United States is existential—in May 2019 the official People’s Daily declared a “people’s war” on America—but the hostility has become far more evident in the past year.

    • Virulent anti-Americanism suggests Xi Jinping is establishing a justification to strike America. The Chinese regime often uses its media to first warn and then signal its actions.

    • America has now been warned.

    Xi Jinping, China’s mighty-looking leader, created his opposition. After becoming ruler at the end of 2012, he grabbed power from everyone else and then jailed tens of thousands of opponents in purges, which he styled as “anti-corruption” campaigns. Xi’s problems, unfortunately, can become our problems. Virulent anti-Americanism suggests Xi is establishing a justification to strike America.

    Pictured: Xi at the Great Hall of the People on May 28, 2020 in Beijing. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

    When truckers took over Canada’s capital, Ottawa, and shut down border entry points to America, some called it a “nationwide insurrection.” Mass demonstrations have occurred across the democratic world. People have had enough of two years of mandates and other disease-control measures.

    Not so in the world’s most populous state, which maintains the world’s strictest COVID-19 controls. There are no known popular protests in the People’s Republic of China against anti-coronavirus efforts.

    Yet China is not stable, and Xi Jinping is facing his “End of Days,” as a recent essay by opposition figures (see below) puts it.

    The revolt is not in society at large but at the top of the Communist Party.

    As Gregory Copley, president of the International Strategic Studies Association, told Gatestone, Xi Jinping, China’s mighty-looking leader, has an “enormous array of domestic enemies.”

    Xi created that opposition. After becoming China’s ruler at the end of 2012, he grabbed power from everyone else and then jailed tens of thousands of opponents in purges, which he styled as “anti-corruption” campaigns.

    Xi also used the disease to great advantage. As Copley, also the editor-in-chief of Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, points out, “Xi’s ‘zero COVID’ policy is, indeed, less about stopping the spread of COVID and more about suppressing his internal enemies, both in the public and in the Party.”

    The “enormous array” is now starting to strike back. Xi is most vulnerable on his handling of the country’s stagnating economy. For one thing, the draconian campaign against COVID—massive testing, meticulous contact-tracing, strict lockdowns—have of course undermined consumption, which Beijing has touted as the core of the economy.

    Beijing is panicking, adding nearly a trillion dollars in total new credit last month, a record increase. Chinese technocrats have also become sneaky, embarking on what the widely followed Andrew Collier of Global Source Partners terms “shadow stimulus”—stimulus provided by local governments and their entities in order to allow the central government to avoid reporting spending.

    China needs a vibrant economy to service enormous debts, largely run up as Beijing overstimulated the economy, especially beginning in 2008. When the so-called “hidden debt” is included, total debt in the country amounts to somewhere in the vicinity of 350% of gross domestic product.

    Not surprisingly, Chinese companies are now defaulting. The debt crisis is so serious it can bring down China’s economy—and the country’s financial and political systems with it.

    For three decades, a Chinese leader was essentially immune to criticism because all decisions of consequence were shared by top figures in the Communist Party. Xi Jinping, however, as he took power also ended up with accountability—in other words, with no one else to blame. With things not going China’s way in recent years, Xi, often called the “Chairman of Everything,” is taking heat.

    There are signs of intensifying discord among senior leaders. In the most recent hint of distress, “Fang Zhou and China”— “Fang Zhou” is a pseudonym meaning “ark”—wrote a 42,000-character essay titled “An Objective Evaluation of Xi Jinping.” The anti-Xi screed, posted on January 19 on the China-sponsored 6park site, appears to be the work of several members of the Communist Party’s Shanghai Gang faction, headed by former leader Jiang Zemin. Jiang’s faction has been continually sniping at Xi and now is leading the charge against him.

    Fang’s piece incorporates previously voiced criticisms but does so in a comprehensive fashion. Fang blames Xi for, among other things, ruining the economy.

    “Xi will be the architect of his own defeat,” writes Fang at the end of the rant, in a section titled “Xi Jinping’s Denouement” or “End of Days.” “His style of governance is simply unsustainable; it will generate even newer and greater policy missteps.”

    Fang notes that Xi was able to take advantage of a feeble opposition but has not been able to accomplish much. “Xi’s policies have been retrogressive and derivative, his successes minor and his blunders numerous,” writes the Asia Society’s Geremie Barme, who translated the essay, summarizing Fang’s thoughts. Fang believes Xi “deserves a score of less than zero.”

    Xi is not one to let a decade of zero scores get in the way of his continued rule. Communist Party norms require him to step down at the 20th National Congress, to be held sometime this fall if tradition holds. He obviously wants a precedent-breaking third term as general secretary so that he can become, as outsiders say, “Dictator for Life.” Most observers expect he will get that new term.

    Maybe. Fang Zhou’s essay shows Communist Party leaders are risking stability by airing disagreements in public. Xi Jinping therefore, now realizes he is in the fight of his life.

    Xi’s problems, unfortunately, can become our problems. He has, for various internal political reasons, a low threshold of risk and many reasons to pick on some other country to deflect elite criticism and popular discontent.

    In 1966, Mao Zedong, Communist China’s first ruler, started the decade-long Cultural Revolution to vanquish political enemies in Beijing. Xi is doing much the same thing now, especially with his “common prosperity” program, which could return China to the 1950s.

    Unlike Mao, however, Xi has the power to plunge the world into war, and he has reason to lash out soon.

    Xi is targeting the United States. On August 29 of last year, People’s Daily, China’s most authoritative publication, accused America of launching “barbaric” attacks on the Chinese nation. On the 21st of that month, Global Times, a tabloid controlled by People’s Daily, insinuated the U.S. was working with China’s “enemies.”

    The Communist Party of China has always believed its struggle with the United States is existential—in May 2019 the official People’s Daily declared a “people’s war” on America—but the hostility has become far more evident in the past year.

    Virulent anti-Americanism suggests Xi Jinping is establishing a justification to strike America. The Chinese regime often uses its media to first warn and then signal its actions.

    America has now been warned.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 21:00

  • Real Estate Investors Are Buying A Record Share Of US Homes, Sending Prices Soaring
    Real Estate Investors Are Buying A Record Share Of US Homes, Sending Prices Soaring

    Earlier this week, we reported that Blackrock, America’s largest commercial and residential landlord, just got even bigger with the purchase of 12,000 apartments in the sunbelt (among other assets) when it acquired Preferred Apartment Communities for $5.8 billion. But Blackrock has not been alone in quietly swooping up US residential real estate.

    According to the latest data from real-estate consultancy Redfin, real estate investors – i.e., those who purchase real estate not with the intention of living in it but in expectations of reselling and/or renting it out – bought a record 18.4% of the homes that were sold in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 12.6% a year earlier and a revised rate of 17.4% in the third quarter.

    Investors bought 80,293 homes in the fourth quarter, up 43.9% from a year earlier (although investor market share hit a record in the fourth quarter, the number of homes bought by investors declined by 8000, or 9.1%, from the third-quarter peak; but it’s up significantly from pre-pandemic levels). The housing-supply crunch constrained home sales for all homebuyers, including investors. The drop from the third quarter is also due partly to seasonality, as real estate activity tends to slow at the end of the year. In 2019, for example, the number of homes investors purchased dropped 4% from the third to fourth quarters. 

    The number of homes bought by investors jumped throughout 2021 as home prices rose rapidly–they were up 15% year over year in December–alongside a shortage of homes for sale. Investors are taking advantage of intense demand for rentals and increasing prices, with the average monthly rental payment for a new lease up 14% in December.  

    Just over three-quarters (75.3%) of investor home purchases were paid for with all cash in the fourth quarter. 

    Here is a summary of Redfin’s findings:

    • Investors bought 18.4% of the U.S. homes that were purchased in the fourth quarter, a record high.
    • Investor demand is stronger than ever as home prices increase, allowing investors to charge higher rents and sell flipped homes for higher prices.
    • Real estate investors bought roughly 80,000 U.S. homes worth a total of $50 billion in the fourth quarter, up significantly from a year earlier.
    • Mid-priced homes are becoming more popular with investors, making up 32% of investor purchases in the fourth quarter, a record high. Low-priced homes are still most popular with investors, making up 37% of purchases.
    • Investors had the highest market shares in Atlanta, Charlotte and Jacksonville.

    “While record-high home prices are problematic for individual homebuyers, they’re one reason why investor demand is stronger than ever,” said Redfin economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “Investors are chasing rising prices because rental payments are also skyrocketing, incentivizing investors who plan to rent out the homes they buy. The supply shortage is also an advantage for landlords, as many people who can’t find a home to buy are forced to rent instead. Plus, investors who ‘flip’ homes see potential to turn a big profit as home prices soar.”

    “Investors buying up a record share of for-sale homes is one factor making this market difficult for regular homebuyers,” Bokhari continued. “It’s tough to compete with all-cash offers, and rising mortgage rates have a smaller impact on investors because they often don’t use mortgages at all. If home-price growth slows in the coming year, investor demand may cool down because rental price growth will slow, too.”

    In dollar terms, investors bought $49.9 billion worth of homes in the fourth quarter, up from $35 billion a year earlier. The typical home investors purchased sold for $432,971, up nearly 10% from a year earlier. The price increase comes amid surging prices in the overall housing market.

    Mid-priced homes are gaining popularity with investors, representing 32.3% of their purchases in the fourth quarter, a record high (essentially tied with 32.4% in the third quarter) and up from 24.1% a year earlier. 

    Low-priced homes are still more popular than more expensive options for investors, but not by much. Low-priced homes made up 37% of investor purchases in the fourth quarter, a record low and down from 44.5% a year earlier. 

    Meanwhile, high-priced homes represented 30.7% of investor purchases, up slightly from 30% in the third quarter but down slightly from 31.4% a year earlier. 

    “Lower price points are still popular with investors, and I don’t expect that to change. One of their main goals is still to buy low and sell high,” Bokhari said. “But investors are also increasingly interested in higher-priced properties, partly because there’s a lack of low-priced inventory and partly because they’re betting on rising demand for high-end rentals.”

    Single-family homes made up about three-quarters (74.8%) of investor purchases in the fourth quarter. That’s near the highest level on record, essentially tied with the third quarter (75%), and up from 72.2% a year before.

    Condos and coops made up 15.4% of investor purchases, down from 17.8% a year earlier and 16.1% in the third quarter. Townhouses represented 6% of investor purchases, up from 5.3% a year earlier, and multifamily properties made up 3.8%, down from 4.7% a year earlier.

    Single-family homes surged in popularity at the beginning of the pandemic, with many homebuyers searching for space for remote work and online schooling. Investors are likely buying up single-family homes because they still make attractive rentals for those reasons.

    Investors had the biggest market share in relatively affordable Sun Belt metros. In Atlanta, 32.7% of homes that sold in the fourth quarter were bought by investors, the biggest share of the 40 U.S. metros in this analysis, and in Charlotte it was 32.1%. They’re followed by Jacksonville, FL (29.8%), Las Vegas (29.2%) and Phoenix (28.4%). 

    The top three metros for investors—Atlanta, Charlotte and Jacksonville—all had median home-sale prices under the national median of $383,000 in December, making them attractive to investors. 

    Home prices have risen significantly over the last year in Las Vegas and Phoenix, up 24.8% year over year to $399,400 and up 28% to $435,200, respectively. They’re also two of the most popular migration destinations in the U.S., attracting tens of thousands of new residents in 2021. Atlanta and Charlotte are also among the most popular destinations for Americans moving from one metro area to another, making all four of those areas good bets for investors hoping to rent out properties. 

    Investor purchases more than doubled from last year in Jacksonville, with a 157% year-over-year increase, the biggest jump of the metros in this analysis. It’s followed by Las Vegas (105.5% year-over-year increase), Charlotte (92.8%), Baltimore (83%), and Atlanta (74.4%). Investor purchases increased from the year before in all but four of the metros in this analysis (Seattle, Nassau County, NY, Newark, NJ and Warren, MI). 

    Just over 6% of Providence, RI homes that sold in the third quarter were bought by investors, the smallest share of the metros in this analysis. It’s followed by Washington, D.C. (7.8%), Warren, MI (8.2%), Virginia Beach (8.6%) and Montgomery County, PA (8.6%).

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 20:40

  • The Fed Is Mistaken: It's The Removal Of Inflation That Is Destabilizing, Not 'Late' Policy Moves
    The Fed Is Mistaken: It’s The Removal Of Inflation That Is Destabilizing, Not ‘Late’ Policy Moves

    By Joseph Carson, former chief economist at Alliance Bernstein

    The Fed is mistaken. The removal of inflation has the most significant destabilizing effect on the economy, not the abrupt change in monetary policy that comes late to dampen or reverse the price cycle and imbalances. Inflation cycles create liquidity, income, and wealth, and its reversal triggers a sharp loss in all of them.

    Over the past 50 years, inflation cycles have been broad and narrow, rotating from general consumer and producer inflation to financial and tangible assets. Each has unique features, but each has a common lousy outcome (recession).

    The challenge for the Fed nowadays is that inflation is everywhere and in everything (“The Everything Inflation Cycle” Blog of November 26, 2021). Several years ago, I developed a proprietary broad price index consisting of consumer and producer prices and real estate and equity prices. Based on data through January 2022, the broad price index shows a record double-digit increase over the past year, consisting of CPI and PPI gains equal to that of the 1970s and asset inflation that is roughly equal to the dot.com and housing bubbles combined.

    In a recent interview Ms. Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, stated, “history tells us with Fed policy, that abrupt and aggressive action can actually have a destabilizing effect on the very growth and price stability we’re trying to achieve.” That is true if the Fed waits until actual inflation worsens before taking countermeasures. The Fed is still easing policy.

    The question now does the Fed engineer a Greenspan-type soft landing (1995) or a Volcker hard-landing? Odds favor a Volcker ending.

    Look at the evidence.

    • The 1970s: Supply shocks triggered a sharp rise in consumer and producer prices that fed into wages and expectations. Consumer price inflation averaged nearly 7% per year during the decade, the highest of any decade in the postwar period. Still, policymakers feared the negative trade-off between fighting inflation and increasing joblessness, so policy remained loose. It took a dramatic rise in official rates to kill the cycle, led by Fed Chair Volcker. The result was three years of recession from 1980-to 82.

    • The 1980s: A sharp rise in cyclical inflation surfaced in the late 1980s following the sharp depreciation of the US dollar and the abrupt easing of monetary policy after the stock market crash of 1987. Consumer price inflation jumped to 6% by the late 1980s. Policymakers lifted official rates to near 10% to break the price cycle. An economic recession and a banking crisis (linked to the collapse in commercial real estate) occurred in the early 1990s.

    • The 1990s: Against a backdrop of modest consumer price inflation, a surge in asset prices occurred from the mid-1990s to 2000. During that period, the S&P 500 rose roughly 25% per year for five consecutive years, while the Nasdaq posted annual gains of nearly 60%. The surge in equities prices lifted share prices far beyond the company’s earnings, creating a unbalance or a bubble. Equity prices fell hard once the Fed reversed its easy money policy. A mild recession occurred in 2001, and equity markets corrected for the next three years.

    • The 2000s: As the Fed maintained an easy money policy to cushion the economy from the plunge in equity prices, a new inflation cycle started in real estate. According to the S&P/Cass Shiller National House Price Index, housing inflation ran roughly 10% per year from 2001 to 2006, or four to five times the rise in general inflation. The housing bubble ended when once monetary policy and credit conditions tightened. The collapse in house prices triggered the most severe economic and financial downturn in the post-war period.

    • 2021 and ?. The current inflation cycle is unlike anything seen before. The 1970s and 1980s inflation cycles centered on consumer and producer prices, while assets prices (equities and real estate) powered the 1990s and 2000s inflation cycles. Today’s inflation cycle has all of the above. And based on the broad price index, the current inflation cycle is as big as the 1970s and the dot.com and the housing bubble combined. (Note: CPI less shelter has risen 9.1%in the last year, the biggest increase since 1981. Including a market-price shelter, the component lifts CPI to double-digits. The old producer prices for finished goods are up 12.5, while core intermediate and crude prices have increased by 23% and 13.5%, respectively. The CPI and PPI account for 85% of the broad price index,)

    Policymakers have misread the full scope of the inflation cycle and need to play catch-up. Monetary policy is a blunt instrument, and so trying to attack one or two segments of the inflation cycle will hit them all, but not equally.

    History says the odds of achieving a soft landing in the economy is low. Mr. Greenspan successfully landed the economy in 1995, but he raised official rates 300 basis points over twelve months and raised the real federal funds rate from zero to 3%. The current generation of policymakers needs to do as much or more soon or risk doing much more later. Even if policymakers act soon and big, the scale and breadth of the inflation cycle still favor a Volcker-type ending.

    One key takeaway from all this is that the analytical framework used to assess the appropriate monetary policy stance has been too narrow and inflexible. A broad price index would be a helpful addition to the Fed’s toolbox as it helps distinguish between relative and absolute price movements and provide a signaling effect of significant and persistent increases.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 20:20

  • The Future Of Global Coal Production (2021-2024F)
    The Future Of Global Coal Production (2021-2024F)

    Coal is the world’s most affordable energy fuel, and as such, the world’s biggest commodity market for electricity generation.

    Unfortunately, as Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte notes, that low-cost energy comes at a high cost for the environment, with coal being the largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions.

    Despite its large footprint, coal was in high demand in 2021. As economies reopened following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries struggled to meet resurgent energy needs. As a readily available low-cost energy source, coal filled the supply gap, with global coal consumption increasing by 450 million tonnes or around +6% in 2021.

    This graphic looks at the IEA’s coal production forecasts for 2024, and the specific countries projected to reduce or increase their production over the next few years.

    Which Countries Are Increasing (or Reducing) Coal Production?

    Global coal production was a topic of scrutiny at the COP26 conference held in November of 2021, where 40 countries pledged to stop issuing permits and direct government support for new coal-fired power plants.

    However, many of the top coal-producing countries did not commit to the pledge. China, the U.S., India, Russia, and Australia abstained, and of those five, only the U.S. is forecasted to reduce coal production in the next two years.

    Source: IEA

    With 15 EU countries signing the pledge, the European Union is forecasted to see the greatest drop in coal production at 82 million tonnes, along with the greatest forecasted reduction in coal consumption (101 million tonnes, a 23% reduction).

    Reducing Coal-Fired Power Generation in the U.S.

    The U.S. and Indonesia are the other two major producers forecasted to reduce their reliance on coal. The U.S. is projected to cut coal production by 7.5% or 44 million tonnes, while Indonesia’s reduction is forecasted at 6 million tonnes, or just a 1% cut of its 2021 production.

    Despite not joining the COP26 pledge, the U.S. is still noticeably pursuing short and long-term initiatives to reduce coal-fired power generation.

    In fact, 85% of U.S. electric generating capacity retirements in 2022 are forecast to be coal-fired generators, and there are further plans to retire 28% (59 GW) of currently operational coal-fired capacity by 2035.

    Coal Makes Energy Ends Meet in China and India

    Modern consumption and production are instead focused in Asia.

    China and India produce almost 60% of the world’s coal, and are expected to increase their production by more than 200 million tonnes per year, collectively. All this coal goes towards meeting the insatiable energy demands of both nations.

    While China has pledged to start cutting down coal consumption in 2026, the country also announced the construction of 43 new coal-fired power plants to meet energy demand until then. Part of the additional production is driven by a need to reduce the country’s dependence on coal imports, which are expected to drop by 51 million tonnes or 16% from 2021–2024.

    By 2024, China’s coal consumption is forecasted to rise by 3.3% and India’s by 12.2%, which would make the two countries responsible for two-thirds of the world’s coal consumption.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 20:00

  • Bitcoin's Political Breakthrough Raises Questions About Its Regulatory Future
    Bitcoin’s Political Breakthrough Raises Questions About Its Regulatory Future

    By Mike Hobart of Bitcoin Magazine

    Is it actually possible for individual U.S. states to establish bitcoin as legal tender currency?

    Arizona State Senator Wndry Rogers seems to think so, based on the submission (SB 1341) she crafted and introduced late last month, aiming to establish bitcoin as legal tender in the State of Arizona. Meanwhile Texas Governor Candidate Don Huffines has promised to recognize bitcoin as legal tender if elected.

    But while there is growing interest in state leaders adoption bitcoin in this way, there might be some obstacles. Namely, the first clause in article one in section 10 of the U.S. Constitution:

    “No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.”

    As of right now, it seems that individual states do not have the capability, nor the power, to establish a newly acceptable form of legal tender within the Union of the U.S. So, that’s a bit of a buzzkill. But it’s clear that we are making significant progress in the mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin, sparking interest by American politicians and legislators and spreading like wildfire.

    “The key piece here is not whether it will pass or what impact it will have in Arizona,” explained Dennis Porter, a podcaster focused on the intersection of Bitcoin and politics. “The true impact of this bill is the fire that it has ignited. Other states and legislators are now looking at this as a potential option for their state as a way to protect themselves from a runaway federal government.”

    Game Theory Playing Out

    It also means that Bitcoiners as individuals need to become careful, and much more critical of what our politicians claim and promise. The game theory that we have been discussing within our circles for years is playing out, almost precisely as was expected: politicians and other public figures are realizing the power behind garnering support from the Bitcoin community. Not just because of the excitement around price action, but also due to the sheer numbers of the voter base within the borders of the United States. This voter base reaches across all party lines, anyone is capable of garnering support, from all angles.

    “States need to begin adopting Bitcoin today so they can begin the process of protecting themselves from the federal government unplugging them from the overly-powerful national financial system,” Porter said. “It’s a win-win plan for any state to adopt Bitcoin. It gives them more autonomy over their future.”

    Changing Perception In D.C.

    Another recent development at the intersection of Bitcoin and politics can be found in a bill introduced to the U.S. Congress by Representatives Suzan DelBene of Washington and David Schweikert of Arizona on February 3, 2022.

    This particular bill is aimed at introducing a “workable structure for taxing purchases made with virtual currency,” such as bitcoin. One of the greatest hindrances to bitcoin adoption by the general public is its infeasibility as a currency for routine purchases, as it is more closely treated as a stock or other long-term investment from a tax perspective in the U.S.

    DelBene and Schweikert aimed to alleviate this bottleneck by providing an exemption from taxes in the use of bitcoin as a currency where capital gains amounted to less than $200.

    “It’s a great way to normalize the whole ‘track your buys under $600 thing,’” said Ant, the pseudonymous author of Bitcoin blockchain data dashboard Timechain Stats. “Accounting is a nightmare, and hardly anyone knows their cost basis.”

    However, as national politicians attempt to normalize and increasingly regulate the use of bitcoin, even if that regulation is meant to increase adoption, they will inevitably challenge the project’s status as something parallel to and outside of the national system.

    “Most important: Bills like this will end up doxxing a lot of bitcoiners, both directly and indirectly,” Ant warned.

    While a bill like DelBene and Schweikert’s may be viewed as a boon to some individuals who take portions of their salary in bitcoin, it also provides a stepping stone for potential abuse of financial surveillance powers, not just immediately, but into the future as well. Which is a very important worry amongst many in the Bitcoin space.

    Bitcoiners should be cautious around how quickly we are seeing these social and powerful figures flock to this revolutionary asset. It would behoove all of us to take pause, catch our breath and reflect before two potential scenarios play out:

    One, we rush to regulate an asset that is wildly misunderstood and provide roadblocks to those we aim to protect. And two, we rush to support and uplift politicians who hoist the Bitcoin standard in the desire to reach regulation of the asset before the regulatory windfalls are well gauged or we have established understanding, so as to avoid inviting weakness within the system itself.

    Our world moves fast, but we don’t have to break things. When it comes to state adoption, being a slow mover can be a blessing, not a curse.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 19:40

  • Ontario Government Employee Fired Over $100 Contribution To Freedom Convoy
    Ontario Government Employee Fired Over $100 Contribution To Freedom Convoy

    The communications director for the Ontario ministry responsible for enforcing the law was fired this week after her $100 donation to the Freedom Conovoy was revealed in the hack of donors to a GiveSendGo campaign, according to CTV News.

    Marion Isabeau-Ringuette was one of several government staffers whose donations drew the eye of Sauron after the list of some 100,000 donors was leaked.

    “For the communications director to be financially supporting an unlawful, illegal occupation is definitely concerning,” said NDP MPP Catherine Fife. “Who was donating, why were they donating, and did this contribute to the non-action that happened on the ground in Ottawa?”

    According to Ontario Premier Doug Ford spokeswoman Ivana Yelich, “Ms. Isabeau-Ringuette no longer works for the Ontario government.”

    Isabeau-Ringuette worked as a political staffer as recently as Sunday for Ontario’s Solicitor-General, the position that oversees police and other law enforcement in Ontario.

    The $100 donation was listed as anonymous on GiveSendGo, but in a pair of leaked documents totalling nearly 100,000 donations, one line reads “M.R.” with an email address that contains Isabeau-Ringuette’s name. -CTV

    Another employee under scrutiny works for the federal correctional service, while a pollster with ties to the governing Progressive Conservative party was also accused in an NDP news release of donating to the protesters, who oppose government vaccine mandates and other restrictions.

    According to Toronto lawyer Nainesh Kotak, even small donors to the fund – should the continue donating – run the risk of frozen bank accounts since the government invoked the Emergencies Act.

    “Under this enactment I would suggest the government could freeze bank accounts if they chose to do so,” he said, adding “That’s concerning. The targets should be the bigger players.”

    George Washington University postdoc fellow Yunkang Yan says conservative US politicians are using the Freedom Convoy to energize their base.

    ““A lot of influential right-wing media have been promoting narratives about that for a long time. They have very big audiences. People from all walks of life on the political right might be a viewer of their content on a regular basis,” which includes those on both sides of the border. “That might be why they are really sucked into this.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 19:20

  • Colas: No Arbitrage In New York City
    Colas: No Arbitrage In New York City

    By Nick Colas of DataTrek Research

    This week’s Story Time is about New York City 2 years on from the onset of the pandemic. The first confirmed case was on March 1st, 2020, which means 24 months ago – perhaps to the day – is when the virus first started to circulate here. I (Nick) live in midtown Manhattan and did not spend a night out of the city until Thanksgiving 2021. Being a native New Yorker and aside from college and grad school never living anywhere else as an adult, I thought it was important to stay and support the city that has given me, well, everything.

    My long history in this town has taught me one thing: there is no arbitrage in New York. Every form of capital (intellectual, physical, financial, whatever) is properly priced at any given moment. And, like the efficient market theory for stocks, even if there are mispricings there is no way to systematically find them. A few examples of what I mean by “no arbs in Gotham”:

    • If an apartment for sale is priced cheap to the comps, it is always because there is a problem with the location.
    • If you see a 20-something in a Ferrari, it’s most likely because they’ve made a killing in virtual currencies or at a hedge fund. Maybe they were lucky, and maybe they are brilliant. No way to tell, but you do know it’s new money. Old money keeps their nice cars in Palm Beach.
    • If a gaggle of attractive, lively young women ask you to go to a club with them, it’s not because they think you are handsome. It’s because you are driving a bright yellow Porsche 911 (true story, if a short and rather dull one because I waved my wedding band and drove on).

    This “no arbitrage in NYC” rule makes the city an ideal vantage point from which to consider the current state of a post-pandemic world. New York marks everything to market, efficiently and quickly. Again, this doesn’t mean all “prices” (what’s visible today) are right over the long term. It just means they reflect today’s realities accurately.

    Five vignettes that show what this “no-arb” market is saying just now:

    #1: My friend “J”, 28 years old, is an up-and-coming recruiter specializing in management consulting. Hiring in this area has been white hot for over a year. Any consultant with a decent resume and 3-5 years of name-brand experience is in huge demand and routinely offered $300 – $500,000 to switch jobs. One of “J’s” clients, a well-known firm, recently offered him $4 million to work exclusively with them for the next year. He turned it down. “It’s nowhere near enough to make up for all the business I would lose”, he told me.

    #2: I recently had a conversation with someone best described as an archetypal “tech bro” in his early 30s. He runs an online business that helps independent contractors handle billing and other paperwork. This “bro” just leased some lovely new office space for $10,000/month in downtown Manhattan, just for show. His VCs wanted to see some office space, and a few large operational partners did as well. “I don’t know…” he told me, “none of my guys want to work in an office… but whatever. I’m going to Dubai for a break next week … I can afford the rent. It’s fine.”

    #3: “M”, a senior banker in leveraged finance working at a very large non-US financial institution, has repeatedly told me of his plan to leave the city once his kids are in college. “No one in my office cares where I live. My market works like a light switch – it’s either on or off. When it’s on, I’m on the road and visiting clients. When it’s off, there’s nothing to do in the office anyway.”

    #4: “P”, my favorite waiter at my favorite French restaurant, got omicron while working the Christmas Eve 2021 dinner shift. “I was wearing 2 masks, but the place was packed and I knew I was going to get it. Sure enough, I did. I was sick for a week. My son got it too – he was fine in a day.” He went on to say, “We’re sold out every night, often lunch as well. Good spenders, too… This summer will be crazy if the tourists start coming back.”

    #5: Mixing in a little data with these anecdotes, here are the latest MTA mass transit ridership numbers (workweek averages though this past Tuesday):

    • Average subway ridership: 55.5 percent of the pre-pandemic (2019) comparable week
    • Average bus ridership: 62.0 pct of comparable 2019 week
    • Long Island Railroad: 48.8 pct of comparable 2019 week
    • Metro-North Railroad: 43.8 pct of comparable 2019 week
    • Bridges and tunnels into/out of 5 boroughs: 99.5 pct of comparable 2019 week

    The bottom line to those numbers is that, two years after the start of the pandemic’s spread, mass transit usage is still only about half of 2019 levels and when people do come into the city it’s more often in their cars. New York may never be a driving city like Los Angeles, but it is closer to that reality than any point in my +50 years living here.

    Taken as a whole, these anecdotes tell a story of dramatic societal change powered by two drivers. The first is an overheated US economy, which is always on maximum display in New York when we hit such points in a cycle. The second, which is unique to right now, is that the last 2 years of hybrid/at home work have fundamentally changed how people think about employment. Simply put, they want more freedom and choice about where they live, how they live, and in many cases what they do.

    Perhaps I’ve seen too many cycles and have become jaded as a result, but I can’t help but wonder if the next recession will push things back closer to pre-pandemic norms of work. Living in Montana but keeping your job and pay structure as a NYC investment banker only works if every other banker who could replace you also wants the same flexibility and, crucially, that your employer needs someone to execute deals. When deal flow dries up and companies cut back, the NYC job market becomes like a game of musical chairs just after the music stops. The same, I think, is true for many jobs here. And there is no “arb” to keep the current high-flying, work from anywhere ethos in place once the national economy slows.

    I’ll close with one last story, courtesy of a friend who has made a very good living working at high-end Manhattan watch boutiques since the 1990s. “Nick …”, he once told me in his lilting Russian accent, “I want to be like a clam. Clams don’t swim around looking for food. They park themselves in the current and pump away. The food comes to them.” That’s what New York and cities in general do – sit in one place and wait for sustenance. Perhaps the current shifts for a while, but as long as it returns the city continues to survive and prosper.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 19:00

  • California High School Caves After Students Stage Walkout Over Mask Mandate
    California High School Caves After Students Stage Walkout Over Mask Mandate

    Administrators at the Oak Ridge High School in El Dorado Hills, California quickly dropped a mask mandate after hundreds of students walked out on Tuesday. The walkout was staged in solidarity with students whose parents sent them to school without masks, who were subsequently dismissed from class.

    As the Washington Examiner reported,

    Several parents of students at the school sent the teenagers to school without a mask, according to Jennifer Yoder, a parent at Oak Ridge. The high schoolers who showed up without a mask were dismissed from class.

    “This was a homegrown thing between the parents and then the kids working together to get everyone on board,” said Oak Ridge parent, Jennifer Yoder. “It just kept growing and growing. And then they eventually just got up and left those classrooms and ran outside and started their protest.” 

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    Later that day, the school bent the knee – telling parents in a Tuesday afternoon letter from the school board that while the mask mandate was still in effect, the school would no longer punish students who refused to comply.

    “The enforcement of masking will be done by educating students and asking them to mask but no further actions of exclusion from class will be taken,” reads the letter. “Moving forward students will not be physically removed from the classroom or receive a discipline consequence to prevent further exclusionary learning loss.“

    The staged walkout protested the delay in lifting mask mandates at schools statewide. California Gov. Gavin Newsom was expected to lift the mandate Monday, but California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said there would be a two-week delay, marking Feb. 28 as the next day to reassess the school changes.

    The delay and subsequent walkout came after Newsom announced most indoor services and shops could remove the mask mandate, though stores could keep it in place if they chose. The end of the mandate is for vaccinated citizens only, with unvaccinated residents still expected to wear masks. -Washington Examiner

     

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 18:40

  • 1 In 5 'Gen Z' Adults Now Say They Are LGBTQ
    1 In 5 ‘Gen Z’ Adults Now Say They Are LGBTQ

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    One in five Gen Z adults now identify as LGBTQ, while the number of total Americans doing the same has doubled in a decade, according to a new Gallup poll.

    However, the rise is almost entirely accounted for by far greater numbers of people identifying as bisexual or transgender, not gay or lesbian.

    “Gallup estimates from these results that within the entire U.S. adult population, 4.0 percent of Americans identify as bisexual, 1.5 percent as gay, 1 percent as lesbian and 0.7 percent as transgender,” reports the Daily Mail.

    “The Gallup poll found nearly 21 percent of Gen Z adults identify as LGBTQ, which is nearly double the number of millennials who do, which is 10.5 percent. Nearly one in six Gen Z LGBTQ adults identify as bisexual.”

    Americans identifying as LGBTQ represent 7.1 per cent of the population, compared to 5.6 per cent a year ago. In 2012, 3.5 per cent of Americans identified as LGBTQ.

    The numbers are fascinating given that a significantly greater percentage of Americans obviously aren’t being ‘born gay’.

    Indeed, the increase is largely explained by far more people identifying not as gay or lesbian, who still comprise a total of just 2.5 per cent, but by those identifying as bisexual or trans, a total of 4.7 per cent.

    This exemplifies how the huge rise in people identifying as LGBTQ (or more specifically bisexual and trans) is overwhelmingly caused by social engineering.

    When Glenn Greenwald (who is gay) made this same point last year, he was smeared as “transphobic.”

    Greenwald pointed out on Twitter that “almost all of the increase comes from those identifying as bi or trans, not gay or lesbian.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    He went on to highlight how, “Of Americans now claiming “bi” identity, the vast majority of them in long-term relationships are in opposite-sex relationships (33%) rather than same-sex ones (3.7%). So 10 times more people who identify as “bi” live in hetero-appearing relationships than gay/lesbian ones.”

    The writer said one explanation for this was that “masculine girls are now encouraged to identify as trans, causing a decrease in the lesbian population.”

    He then cited an article which explored “whether the disappearance of lesbian culture is due to the encouragement which masculine girls receive — from the society, therapists, health care workers, etc. — to identify as trans, not as lesbian women.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The results of the poll underscore how mainstream culture’s increasing obsession with identity politics is manipulating young people into identifying as LGBTQ because they think it’s cool, edgy or makes them unique.

    However, given that such brainwashing is being imposed via top down social engineering, it’s not edgy or unique at all.

    *  *  *

    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 18:20

  • US Cites Ukraine Crisis To Approve $6 Billion Tank Deal For Poland
    US Cites Ukraine Crisis To Approve $6 Billion Tank Deal For Poland

    With tensions and fighting heating up along the front line of contact in the separatist Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, and now as the US has issued fresh estimates saying it believes Russia has up to 190,000 troops mustered across the border, US allies in Eastern Europe and American defense contractors are naturally busy milking the situation – with new contracts and weapons flying out the proverbial door.

    The latest is a fresh $6 billion tank deal: “US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Friday the planned sale of 250 Abrams tanks to Poland, as Washington moves to strengthen the defenses of a key eastern European ally amid a mounting threat of war between neighboring Ukraine and Russia,” Reuters reports. 

    M1A2 Abrams tank, US Army photo

    And of course, this whopping price tag (which the US taxpayer will be on the hook for, ultimately) was deemed justified based on the current ‘Russian invasion’ threat. 

    Apparently, it’s no longer just Ukraine that’s being eyed as an object of aggression by Russia, according to Secretary Austin’s words: “Some of those forces (are) within 200 miles (321 km) of the Polish border,” he said in the Friday statement. 

    “If Russia further invades Ukraine, Poland could see tens of thousands of displaced Ukrainians and others flowing across its border, trying to save themselves and their families from the scourge of war.” 

    He made the announcement during a trip to Warsaw to shore up joint security initiatives with Poland’s military, which has been part of NATO since 1999. “What Mr. Putin did not want was a stronger NATO on his flank, and that’s exactly what he has today,” Austin said at the press conference.

    “It will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of our other NATO Allies.”

    US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (L) and Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, via Shutterstock

    At the same time, according to The Hill: 

    The U.S. has sent a total of 4,700 troops stationed at Fort Bragg, N.C., to Poland to help assure the alliance. 

    Austin said Friday that the troops are prepared to respond to a “range of contingencies,” adding that they would work with the Polish government “should there be any need to help American citizens leave Ukraine.”

    Thus one of the real drivers of Washington’s greatly hyping the ‘Russian invasion’ threat over much of the last two months has been made clear: it’s time for NATO’s ‘eastern flank’ to go shopping, in the form of acquiring billions of dollars in new US weaponry. Major American defense contractors and their allies in the deep state must be salivating over the prospect of further escalation.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 18:00

  • Modern Monetary Theory, And The "Economists" Advocating For It, Will Destroy The United States
    Modern Monetary Theory, And The “Economists” Advocating For It, Will Destroy The United States

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    An economist used to mean someone who applied and analyzed the incontrovertible and irrefutable natural laws of economics as they functioned and played out in a free market. 

    Now, an economist is someone tasked with attempting to engineer enough academic sounding bullshit to convince a growingly skeptical populace that these very same irrefutable natural laws of economics are somehow no longer relevant – that the laws themselves somehow caught a glimpse of the brilliance of academia and, after thousands of years of dictating how free markets work globally, had no choice but to lay down their arms at the majestic aura of Paul Krugman.

    Photo: The New Yorker

    This smoke screen is a necessity, of course, for central planners and vote-hungry politicians to feign as though they have “control” over the global economy and can safely promise “free stuff” – college tuition, social benefits, general wealth and prosperity – without ever having to generate the pesky productivity in order to pay for it. 

    While this is obviously farcical, the truly frightening thing about modern monetary theorists is that, despite being bludgeoned in the face with the negative consequences of their flawed thinking in the form of blistering inflation, it seems like they still won’t admit defeat.

    This would be one thing if the year was 2019 and we were still riding out a period of “mysterious” inflation that we apparently, thanks to our magical CPI, couldn’t punch above 2% even when we wanted to.

    But that’s not the case: we’ve doled out the largest tranche of quantitative easing in modern monetary history over the last two years, the gap between our country‘s revenue and spending ambitions has never been wider and we’re currently in the midst of an inflationary (and civility) crisis so bad in this country that they’re putting fucking alarm nets on the $20 slabs of meat at Wal-Mart.

    Source: Twitter

    And you thought I was being facetious when I wrote, last year, that the U.S. was turning into a third world country. Are you paying attention yet?

    Today’s blog post has been published without a paywall because I believe the content to be far too important. However, if you have the means and would like to support my work by subscribing, I’d be happy to offer you 22% off to become a subscriber in 2022: Get 22% off forever

    Days ago, I happened to notice that the New York Times published a profile of Stephanie Kelton, one of the more well-known advocates for modern monetary theory (MMT).

    Kelton is a professor at Stony Brook University and a Senior Fellow at the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis at the New School for Social Research (whatever that means).

    Her “Greatest Hits” of economic nonsense includes this 2019 interview with The Globe Post where she claimed that the U.S. “can never run out of money and can never be forced to default on [its] debt”. Riveting.

    Stephanie Kelton (livestream) (6/15) – Town Hall Seattle
    Photo: Town Hall Seattle

    In that interview, Kelton also argued points that critics of MMT often use as fodder for hyperbole, like asking why we even pay taxes when the government can just print as much money as it wants:

    “So what that means is that a country like the U.S. doesn’t need to tax or borrow in order to get the currency in order to spend. So it’s never about whether you can afford a program in financial terms. You always can. It’s about whether spending to fund your program will cause an inflation problem.”

    And, since 2019, Kelton hasn’t stopped with her Time Life-style greatest hits compilation.

    Now, at what is arguably one of the most crucial junctures in American history to critically examine Kelton’s dangerously ignorant economic assertions, the New York Times wrote that Kelton:

    “…posits that if a government controls its own currency and needs money — to make sure its citizens have food and places to live when, say, a global pandemic pushes many out of work — it can just print it, as long as its economy has the ability to churn out the needed goods and services.”

    Nevermind the fact that the idea of “just printing it” is a fallacy in and of itself, perhaps Kelton hasn’t seen the country’s worsening trade deficits over the last decade. In other words, our economy doesn’t have the ability to “churn out” anything, especially needed goods and services.

    United States Balance Of Trade

    But these deficits weren’t alarming to Kelton in June 2020, after they had almost nearly doubled from the year prior.

    Kelton instead took a victory lap in 2020, publishing a book that “shot onto best seller lists” called “The Deficit Myth”. The Times wrote that, at the time of publishing “…inflation had been weak for decades and had dropped below 1 percent as consumers retrenched in the pandemic.”

    Ah, the sweet smell of success, right Ms. Kelton?

    By 2021, when Kelton took a second victory lap on a Bloomberg podcast episode called “How M.M.T. Won the Fiscal Policy Debate,” inflation was already back to 2%.

    And just months later, inflation now sits at an out of control 7.5% while our national debt has eclipsed $30 trillion – about triple what it was less than 15 years ago.

    The Times named their profile of Kelton: “Is This What Winning Looks Like?”

    United States Inflation Rate

    Not unlike Cathie Wood when her ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK) started plunging 6 months ago, Kelton and her ilk seem sufficiently motivated to try and control the narrative with inflation running out of hand.

    For example, only now do we get the admission from Kelton in the Times writeup that MMT “wasn’t assessed carefully for its inflationary effects as it was being drawn up, because it was crisis policy.”

    In the words of Adam Sandler in The Wedding Singer:

    “Once again, things that could have been brought to my attention yesterday!”

    The Wedding Singer: Things that could have been brought to my attention YESTERDAY!

    Based on her recent profile, Kelton is holding onto her assumptions and beliefs, lock, stock and barrel, despite the fact that the Fed appears to be in a catch 22 of catastrophic proportions.

    Hilariously, Kelton even pushed back on the Times using the same anecdote that former Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes used when responding to the Wall Street Journal’s criticisms, while talking to Jim Cramer in 2015.

    Modern monetary theorist Stephanie Kelton, 2022:

    When she gave presentations on her ideas, Ms. Kelton would occasionally display a quote often attributed to Mahatma Gandhi: “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you. Then you win.”

    Elizabeth Holmes to Jim Cramer, 2015:

    “This is what happens when you work to change things,” Holmes said. “First they think you’re crazy, then they fight you, then you change the world.”

    Photo: Stony Brook University

    Even worse, Kelton appears to be clinging to her logical fallacy of an ideology with a resolve that only a self-assured academic could have. The Times wrote that during their interview with Kelton “she never broke her cool when questioned about the inflationary moment and what it says about her theory”, but rather “laid out her response methodically”, placing blame on supply chain constraints and “decades of corporate consolidation”.

    About a month before the profile was published, Kelton also wrote a Substack post called: “How Do You Solve A Problem Like Inflation?”

    It’s a post that, in a blindingly arrogant way, failed to offer up an apology for how brutal and out of control inflation has gotten in the country, especially for the middle and lower class. Instead, it offered even more reassurance that modern monetary theory is doing its job:

    There was, however, a big move up in inflation following the passage of the March 2021 fiscal package. And this has led some people to ask whether the emergence of high inflation means that the MMT experiment has failed. The answer is an unequivocal no.

    Today’s blog post has been published without a paywall because I believe the content to be far too important. However, if you have the means and would like to support my work by subscribing, I’d be happy to offer you 22% off to become a subscriber in 2022: Get 22% off forever

    Far be it for me to praise current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Most of my readers and followers know I have been a strident critic of his for years, but even he understands the obvious fallacy of MMT.

    The Times article pointed out that Powell even spoke out against MMT in 2019, stating:

    “I have heard pretty extreme claims attributed to that framework and I don’t know whether that’s fair or not. The idea that deficits don’t matter for countries that can borrow in their own currency is just wrong.”

    And in my opinion, a large problem with people that want to embrace modern monetary theory is that they have no humility.

    The idea that we’re going to be able to print as much money as we would like without suffering any consequences, because we have somehow found a loophole in the basic laws of a free market economic system that we’re gonna be able to exploit in perpetuity, is an arrogant way of thinking.

    Realizing that the natural and very basic, elementary laws of economics will eventually have their say in a market, even if only 1% of our micromanaged (interest rates, price controls, regulations) market remains free, is a humble way to look at things.

    But modern monetary theorists don’t know anything about being humble. Commensurate with their monetary ideology, for them it’s about gaming the system and pulling together whatever half-assed monetary “tools” we can, combined with a word salad of financial jargon, to, very simply, worry only about the making the present as comfortable as possible – no matter what the cost to the future.

    A couple weeks ago I wrote an article talking about how every move the Fed makes is going to be scrutinized because of the inescapable quagmire that our central bankers have gotten themselves into. They must decide right now: crash the markets or stop inflation.

    But, after the Fed, second on the pecking order of people whose actions we should be carefully watching should be people like Stephanie Kelton, advocating for theories that are far to the left of what our current Fed Chair believes. Her ideas – and the notion of only focusing on comfort in the present – will prove to be dangerously costly. Yet, they’re seductive in a way: we won’t realize we’ve overstepped our boundaries in applying them until the destruction is already in the rearview mirror.

    Car Accidents Caused By Blind Spots Can Be Prevented | Law Office of John W. Redmann, L.L.C.

    It also probably wouldn’t hurt to keep an eye on “deep thinkers” like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose economic aspirations appear to be include printing and spending as many trillions of dollars as an Excel cell will physically allow us to manufacture.

    While that’s a bit of hyperbole, the importance of keeping an eye on this developing niche in economics can’t be understated.

    Years ago, when I was still introducing myself to economics in the early 2000s – and back when I was a bone fide Democrat – I would have never fathomed that an idea as idiotic as a trillion dollar coin or the Green New Deal would come close to becoming reality. I’ve been horrified over the last couple of years on how these ideas have even been put up for discussion, let alone written into law.

    When I was younger, I used to think only the smartest people in the world were members of Congress. Now that I know the truth – that Congress is replete with lobotomized automatons pushing legislation with the sole motivation of trying to appease lobbyists and constituents with “free shit” – I’m far more worried.

    In the words of the late, great former Senator Mike Gravel:

    “It’s like going into the Senate. You know, the first time you get there, you’re all excited: ‘My god, how did I ever get here?’. Then about six months later you say: ‘How the hell did the rest of them get here?’ Some of these people frighten me.”

    On a serious note, in the balance hangs the world reserve currency: the U.S. dollar.

    The U.S. dollar is literally all we have to cling to in our country. We don’t have production, we don’t have trade surpluses, and we sure aren’t a creditor nation.

    The dollar is the only thing that has allowed us to run our backwards monetary policy in this country and get away with it. While I’m not sure that the dollar is going to last as reserve currency for much longer anyways, implementing and clinging to modern monetary theory – while countries like Russia and China are stockpiling gold – is a surefire way to accelerate our country’s economic demise and put us in potentially our most precarious position in recent history.

    The best part is: you don’t even need to be an economist – you don’t even need to know where the hole is in modern monetary theory to know that it doesn’t work.

    It can be simply boiled down to: something about it just doesn’t feel right. Or, in other words, it doesn’t pass the smell test.

    When people investigating financial malfeasance look for the hallmark clues of Ponzi schemes and other types of fraud, one of the red flags they always hone in on are promises that sound “too good to be true”.

    In the case of Stephanie Kelton, not unlike many postmodernists, we have a woman who has amplified and magnified otherwise simple, steadfast economic rules into a confusing and complex web of jargon that fails to render the rules ineffective, but instead delays their consequences into the future and creates so much confusion that the layperson is tricked into assuming that she knows what she’s talking about.

    Kelton thinks she has found some type of hidden esoteric code – the Game Genie for the economy – that’s going to allow us to cheat and re-write very clear, time-tested economic laws that have been in place for thousands of years.

    Anyone seeing any red flags yet?

    Now read:

    1. Inflation Is The Kryptonite That Will End Our Decades-Long Monetary Policy Ponzi Scheme

    2. Cancel Culture Is Now Officially A Snake Eating Its Own Tail

    3. It’s Still Starting To Feel Like Time For A “Limit Down” Morning

    4. One Unloved Retail Stock That Could Be Perfect For Both The Short And Long Term

    5. When The Global Monetary Reset Happens, Don’t You Dare Forget Why

    6. The Fed Is Fucked And So Are The Lobotomized “Genius” Fund Managers It Has Created

    7. Rogan 2024

    This post is public so feel free to share it: Share

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 02/18/2022 – 17:40

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Feb 18

Today’s News 18th February 2022

  • So Predictable… Latest Propaganda Claims Liberty Activists Are Russian Pawns
    So Predictable… Latest Propaganda Claims Liberty Activists Are Russian Pawns

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    A common misconception about the establishment power brokers of our era is that they have “created” a vast system of corruption and government control and that this reflects an element of “genius” on their parts. In reality, they only inherited the existing system from the elitists that came before them, and those elites inherited the framework from their forebears. One can already see the next generation of globalists being groomed to carry the torch of centralization, and maybe they will push the agenda forward a step further, or maybe they will be the generation that blows up the whole thing and leaves it in shambles.

    The construct of multi-generational conspiracy is nothing new. It has happened over and over again throughout history from monarchies to papacies to assassins, cartels and the mob. It has the advantage of superseding time, because it is not necessarily limited to the lifespan of a single set of conspirators. It can carry on forever if it is not identified and directly eliminated.

    That said, one of the biggest problems of nepotism within any empire, whether openly dominant or ruling from the shadows, is that power is often passed on to those who show fealty rather than those who show promise. That is to say, nepotism neglects to take intelligence and ingenuity into account.

    Something I have said for a very long time is that psychopathic and evil people do not have the capacity to create. They have no new ideas, no complex imagination and no intuitive intelligence. To make up for this inability to innovate they rely on theft of ideas from smarter and more creative thinkers, ideas they believe they can exploit. They also pursue the destruction of all ideas that might disrupt their efforts. Finally, they are highly repetitive and robotic in their decision making processes. They merely look back at plots that worked for them in the past and they copy and paste.

    This makes them incredibly predictable. If you have studied the behaviors and habits of the average narcissistic sociopath (psychopaths) then you understand exactly how globalists tend to think and plan. These people are not complicated, they are quite simple.

    There are two reasons why they get away with so much:

    First, the system has been broken over many decades of degradation and manipulation and repurposed to protect them. Tyranny doesn’t happen overnight, it takes many years of tip-toeing around and sabotaging the defenses whenever possible.

    Second, the average person is not taught about psychopathy or the traits for identifying psychopaths. In fact, the average person is taught all the wrong information on psychopaths by Hollywood entertainment and in many cases by the very universities that are supposed to educate us.

    Most people have no clue because psychopathy has never been a focus of our society, even though these creatures are the foremost catastrophic influence facing humanity. The average person has no relationship to evil, let alone any relationship to the existence of conspiracy. Our societal priorities are completely backwards and nothing will change until we correct them.

    With that in mind, I would use the analogy of a parasite – If you know about the characteristics of the parasite and you know the symptoms of the parasite then you can identify and remove the parasite. If you have never heard of the parasite or refuse to acknowledge that the parasite exists, then you will continue on in misery and decay until you die because the parasite is feeding off of you in perfect comfort.

    Many of us in the liberty movement understand very well the traits of the globalist parasite and this makes it much easier for us to predict what they will do. Specifically, it is every easy for us to guess the steps they will take to attack us.

    In an article I published last month titled ‘The Globalist Reset Agenda Has Failed – Is Ukraine Plan B?’ I posited in the article that regardless of how the Ukraine situation pans out, the narrative is certainly designed to trigger popular tensions with Russia which the establishment hopes will translate to fear and distrust among the US citizenry. Beyond that, I predicted that in the near future every action on the part of liberty activists will be blamed on “foreign collusion.” That is to say, on the back of events like those in Ukraine the media and globalist controlled officials will claim that the liberty movement is nothing more than an astroturf movement or a color revolution funded and instigated by Russia or some other foreign government.

    And, to once again demonstrate the utter predictability of the globalists and the media, it did not take long before I was proven right. Today I am seeing numerous insinuations in the corporate media that the trucker protest in Canada “might” be manipulated by “foreign agents,” possibly from Russia, and they directly link the conflict over Ukraine to this theory.

    They offer NO EVIDENCE whatsoever to support this theory, of course, and they never will.

    Many people reading this will note that this is nothing new.

    The Russiagate claims during Trump’s presidency have since been proven to be a complete fiasco backed by zero proof, and yet it’s we conservatives that get accused of “fringe conspiracy theory.”

    What many do not realize though is that the build up to the Russian “influence” narrative was going on well before Trump. Over a decade ago I warned liberty activists to be careful about associations with outlets like RT (Russia Today) which are government owned. Editorials and articles among leftists outlets were hinting of “influence” over the Tea Party and patriot groups back then. The propaganda didn’t develop to fruition because there was no hook.

    Today, they seem to be trying to conjure up a hook in the form of a “wag the dog” moment with Ukraine.

    I don’t have any affinity for Russia, nor do I have any particular hatred or fear of Russia either. I am very familiar with Putin’s history and his long time friendships with globalists like Henry Kissinger, so I’m not one of these people that is under the delusion that Putin is going to oppose the globalists and save the world. I do understand that conflict with a larger power like Russia is useful to the globalist agenda for a number of reasons.

    I think that one of the best ways to bring down the US right now would be to get us caught up in a regional conflict that turns into a quagmire we can’t escape, something that would accelerate our already fast moving economic troubles. It might be Ukraine, it might be Taiwan, it might be North Korea or Iran, it’s hard to say but I have little doubt there will be a call for the US to involve itself in one of these disasters in the near future. It doesn’t need to escalate into a nuclear war, it just needs to bog down the US and drain it of energy and stability.

    But beyond that, all corrupt rulers know they will eventually face opposition and rebellion against their draconian policies. We have seen this in the epic takedown of the World Economic Forum’s “Reset” plans in the US. The covid mandates and vax mandates were crushed in at least half the states in the country, a level of defiance not seen in almost any other nation on the planet. Now, because of conservative states fighting back and the defeat of vax requirements at the federal level, the mandates are being dropped in some blue states and even in nations overseas.

    Centralization requires fear and momentum to succeed.

    Liberty activist movements disrupt that momentum and cause doubt among the globalists. If they push too hard, will they make conservatives angry enough to target them directly in return?

    Their response is, again, always predictable. The go-to strategy for governments and elites facing mass popular revolt to centralization is to claim that the rebellion is “not a rebellion at all.” Rather, the rebellion is a “hoax” or it’s based on a con designed by foreign enemies “trying to divide the union.” In this way the power brokers can marginalize the rebellion and halt it’s growth because no matter how truthful and principled the arguments of freedom fighters there will always be suspicion that we are “foreign agents” serving foreign interests.

    The CCP did this recently with the Hong Kong protests, accusing them of being run by western powers. The debate is then derailed into claims and counter-claims of foreign entanglement instead of the more important issues of freedom vs. authoritarianism.

    They already tried the old standard of accusing activists of being “racists.” That failed because freedom is universal and millions of black and brown people also support the cause. Then they tried arguing that we “don’t have the freedom to put other people at risk” and so we must give up our medical autonomy for the “greater good.” In other words, the assertion is that our freedom is dangerous to everyone else.

    That garbage failed when more data about covid and the vaccines was released and leaked to the public. Vaccinated people are just as likely to pass covid to others as the unvaxxed, and they are more likely to be hospitalized or die from covid compared to unvaxxed people with natural immunity. The vaxxed are more of a threat to each other. There’s no proof that the unvaxxed are a threat to anyone. This is a scientific reality and the narrative of the “pandemic of the unvaccinated” propagated by covid cultists is now falling apart.

    On top of that, obviously, if the vaccines actually worked then we wouldn’t be having this conversation at all. How can the unvaxxed be a threat to a vaccinated person unless the vaccines are ineffective?

    Next they tried calling us “terrorists” and “insurrectionists” because of a single and completely unarmed protest on January 6th. This isn’t sticking either and the more they froth at the mouth over that event the crazier they look. So, what trick comes next? They’ll stick with the terrorist claims, but that won’t be enough. They need to convince the public that freedom fighters are actually foreign fighters.

    To be sure, such a narrative will be widely embraced by the political left in the US. In fact it already has. I have seen hundreds of instances lately of leftists across various social media platforms attempting to attach Russian influence to conservative ideas, content, principles and protests. The claim is always that liberty content creators and protesters are either funded by Russia or they are being tricked by Russian psyops into adopting the positions we defend. Get ready to see this propaganda EVERYWHERE, it is so clearly the next tactic in the globalist playbook it makes me a little embarrassed for them.

    Why are leftists so quick to jump on this bandwagon? That’s easy; It’s because they have no logical or reasonable arguments to present in the face of the liberty position. The bottom line is that they want tyranny just like the globalists do and that’s a really hard stance to justify. It’s much easier to attack our characters than to attack our message of freedom; so we are called toxic, racists, sexists, insurrectionists and now we are foreign collaborators. Anything to avoid an honest debate on fair ground based on facts and morals.

    Ultimately, leftists love globalism. They are mouthpieces for the establishment because they see the establishment as an ally in their quest for socialism. They are too stupid to understand that the program is being run by the very same corporations and billionaires they claim they are fighting against. They also don’t understand that they will be among the first people sacrificed to see true globalism achieved. Like children, they think the future is going to be just like Star Trek. In truth it will be more like traveling backwards in time to the serfdom of the feudalist dark ages.

    The Russian collusion story is mostly meant for the political left in order to keep them on the plantation while also to sowing seeds of doubt among moderates and people still on the political fence. The globalists want to prevent as many individuals as possible from moving closer to reality. However, their strategy is rife with confusion. It tells me that they are in uncharted territory and they are falling back on worn out measures and tired schemes because they don’t know what else to do.

    A red state revolution against the mandates and vax passports and now a Canadian trucker rebellion? Good luck trying to shut it down at this stage. Even if they manage to force through their vax mandates or clear away the protesters, this will only inspire more resistance. Not only that, but no matter what governments do they will never be able to force truckers and conservative producers to work, and many of us cannot be replaced very easily. Without us they drown.

    What their actions also tell me is that they know and have accepted the inevitability of mass revolt. They know it cannot be defused or undermined; it’s going to happen and they cannot stop it. So, they are trying to preempt the coming rebellion by injecting the lie of foreign influence ahead of time. They tried this years ago and it didn’t work; the fact that they are trying it with Russia yet again stinks of desperation.

    They might even believe they want the citizenry to fight back, assuming that this will make us look like criminals and justify government force. Globalist puppets like Justin Trudeau and Biden think that they can bulldoze the liberty movement through fascist declarations of “emergency powers.” I say let them try. I welcome such a foolish error which will indeed lead to war. It will be a war they WILL LOSE to true Americans and freedom fighters everywhere, not imaginary Russian agents.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 23:40

  • China's Race Towards AI Research Dominance
    China’s Race Towards AI Research Dominance

    Since taking its first steps teaching computers board game strategies in the 1950s, research on artificial intelligence has come a long way.

    As Statista’s Florian Zandt points out below, in the 21st century in particular, machine learning and its promise for real-time improvements of algorithms through experience and providing access to more data has become the single biggest research focus in the field.

    As Zandt shows in the chart below, based on data provided by the OECD.AI project, China is well on its way to surpassing traditional artificial intelligence research powerhouses in the upcoming years.

    While the U.S. still leads the world with about 150.000 research papers on AI published in 2021, the People’s Republic’s output isn’t that far off thanks to an astronomical increase over the last two decades. The Eastern Asian country passed the number of AI research papers published in every single one of the 27 EU countries combined in 2008 and as of now sits in second place with roughly 138.000 papers pushed to publication in 2021. Overall, it increased its research output by 3,350 percent over the last two decades.

    Infographic: China's Race Towards AI Research Dominance | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Even though AI research has led to improvements in terms of productivity in almost every sector imaginable, it’s not without its downsides if left unchecked.

    For example, a Gizmodo investigation published in December 2021 revealed that PredPol, a predictive policing software based on AI, allegedly reproduced bias instead of giving neutral judgments due to the biased nature of the data it was trained on, mostly leaving predominantly white neighborhoods out of its equations.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 23:20

  • Hillary Clinton's Greatest Masterpiece
    Hillary Clinton’s Greatest Masterpiece

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

    Hillary Clinton’s never-ending shenanigans in 2015-2016 could be summarized as an attempted slow-motion coup.

    Four years of national hysteria, a divided nation, and dangerous new tensions with Russia were some of the wages of Clinton’s machinations.

    Clinton hired a British national and ex-spy, Christopher Steele, to compile dirt on her election opponent, Donald Trump. She hid her likely illegal campaign payments to him through at least three paywalls – the Democratic National Committee, the Perkins Coie law firm, and the opposition research firm Fusion GPS.

    Partisans in the FBI helped her, by variously spying on minor officials affiliated with the Trump campaign, like George Papadopoulos and Carter Page. To expedite its improper surveillance, a corrupt FBI hierarchy presented fraudulent documents to a FISA court that authorized the illicit surveillance.

    Clinton’s orbit of former subordinates and friends seeded the lies in the dossier throughout the Department of Justice, the FBI, and the CIA.

    During the Trump transition, the FBI also tapped into the communications of national security advisor designate General Michael Flynn. The illegally leaked surveillance put an end to his service to the Trump Administration and ruined his life.

    The country went through 22 months and $40 million in legal expenses under special counsel Robert Mueller to investigate the Clinton-inspired Russian collusion hoax.

    When it was all over, Mueller’s “dream team” found no such actionable Trump-Russian collusion.

    Mueller himself ended up nearly humiliated, preposterously claiming under oath no knowledge about the Steele dossier or Fusion GPS – the twin pillars of deceit that prompted his own investigation.

    But Clinton was undaunted.

    According to a recent affidavit filed by Special Counsel John Durham, Clinton furthermore had previously hired members of the Perkins Coie law firm to contract with tech experts to leverage their own existing access to the White House and Trump servers – and tap into the top-secret communications data of candidate and then-President Trump.

    Their apparent desperate purpose was to find any dirt that the failed Steele dossier had not discovered.

    As a result, Clinton’s tech hirelings helped promulgate another “collusion” lie that Trump Tower computers were communicating back and forth with the Russian Alfa Bank.

    This additional Clinton investment in ruining Trump succeeded, as planned, in provoking media “collusion” hysteria that further paralyzed the Trump presidency.

    Nightly news still trafficked in the fake Steele dossier and the Russian collusion hoax. The additional phony Alfa Bank smear was cited as further proof that Trump should be removed from office.

    Clinton’s efforts created the general background landscape of hysteria and untruth that greenlighted the first Trump impeachment over a phone call to the Ukrainian president.

    “Collusion” helped prompt efforts to remove or discredit him through possible invocation of the 25th Amendment.

    And such skullduggery mainlined the once unthinkable scenario of a military coup. In this Clinton-created climate of collective madness, retired generals referenced their commander in chief as Hitler and Mussolini-like. A former Obama Pentagon official even wrote out a scenario of a military coup removing him.

    Nonetheless, Trump completed a solid record of accomplishment of border security, energy production, full employment without inflation, deregulation, and a deterrent, but not interventionist, foreign policy.

    The chief criticism of his administration was that Trump believed the Washington establishment and media were out to get him.

    In furor, he railed nonstop that the Left had conspired to monitor his communications and break the law to ruin him.

    Yet that supposed paranoia is proving to be an unpleasant reality.

    What would Trump’s presidency have been like had opponents like Clinton kept to normal adversarial politics? What if they had avoided spinning conspiracies, often through violation of federal laws? Could they have been content with just opposing him rather than seeking to destroy him?

    One of the reasons why American-Russian relations are poor, aside from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive efforts to reclaim the borders of the old Soviet Union, was the nonstop and politicized demonization of “Russia.”

    Americans were repeatedly and falsely told that “the Russians” had tried to destroy the Clinton campaign to partner with the traitor Trump and betray the United States. That was a slanderous lie.

    Former CIA director John Brennan fed such hysteria by libeling Trump as “treasonous.” The retired Director of National Intelligence James Clapper smeared Trump as a “Russian asset.”

    Will the nation ever demand an investigation to find out how and to what extent Hillary Clinton’s subordinates and contractors infiltrated the private communications of the president of the United States?

    Will the people ever learn how such false information was seeded throughout the government and media in a conspiratorial effort to destroy a sitting president?

    Hillary Clinton by now is an old master of scandals.

    Her lifelong oeuvre is vast – the cattle futures scam, Rose law firm missing documents, Travelgate, Uranium One shenanigans, missing emails, and the Steele dossier.

    But the ongoing effort of her paid associates to tap into the top-secret communications of a presidential candidate and further use such illicit information to ruin the American presidency will go down as her greatest masterpiece of deceit.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 23:00

  • Californians Pay Record High Gas Prices As Pump Pains Send Biden's Approval Rating Lower
    Californians Pay Record High Gas Prices As Pump Pains Send Biden’s Approval Rating Lower

    Expensive crude means more pain at the pump. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) bouncing between $90/bbl – $95/bbl, crude products, such as gasoline and diesel, will remain in an upward trajectory.

    According to American Automobile Association (AAA), the average price of a gallon of regular-grade gasoline in California stands around $4.719 per gallon on Wednesday, surpassing the previous record on Nov. 27. That’s higher than the national average, which stands around $3.52, an increase of more than 40% since the same time last year when it was $2.505 a gallon. 

    High pump prices are driven by a number of factors, from geopolitical risk premium over Russia-NATO tensions, to Biden admin energy policies, and globally tight supplies amid an emerging demand as COVID’s effects fade.

    A terrified Biden administration has already orchestrated a crude dump from strategic reserves, an initiative joined by allies worldwide, but such a ploy has failed. Rising pump prices have become a liability for Biden as polling data slump to a new low ahead of midterms. Democrats are in panic mode as they pitch a “federal gas tax holiday” to alleviate pump prices. 

    To deflect pain at the pump, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told Americans this week that if Russia invades Ukraine, it would have “an impact on energy prices, which could have an impact on prices at the gas pump.” 

    Californians are paying the highest prices for several reasons, taxation and state regulators only allow cleaner-burning grades of fuel that only a handful of refiners in the country can process. 

    Doug Shupe of AAA California told Bloomberg that even with gas prices at record high levels in the state, it’s not going to stop consumers from filling up and driving. Though we should add, high prices will crimp the pocketbooks of millions of Americans as their wages are eaten away by inflationary forces — this will have a significant impact on polling numbers for Democrats. 

    Readers may recall in early January, we cited Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis, who said Americans should prepare for an average price of $4 by spring. With average US prices already around $3.488 as supplies dwindle amid geopolitical tensions, prices will remain in an upward trend. There’s also the start of the “multi-month transition to summer gasoline, further adding to the rise at the pump,” de Haan added. 

    The Biden administration already botched the strategic reserve release. Their attempts to quell Ukraine’s conflict with Russia have yet to provide any meaningful impact on energy markets. Democrat’s attempt for a tax holiday at the pump is another gimmick that won’t work. So in the meantime, Californians, enjoy paying the highest gasoline prices ever. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 22:40

  • "No Valid Reason" To Withhold More Than 14,000 Hours Of 'Jan. 6' Video: Defense Attorney
    “No Valid Reason” To Withhold More Than 14,000 Hours Of ‘Jan. 6’ Video: Defense Attorney

    Authored by Joseph M. Hanneman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The defense attorney for a member of the Oath Keepers charged with seditious conspiracy stemming from the U.S. Capitol unrest on Jan. 6, 2021, has filed a motion to intervene in a lawsuit that seeks to compel the U.S. Capitol Police to release more than 14,000 hours of video from surveillance cameras, smart phones and police body-worn cameras.

    Protesters spill out of the West Terrace tunnel at the U.S. Capitol like a waterfall on Jan. 6, 2021. The crowd started a stampede out of the tunnel after police deployed gas on the crowd, witnesses said. (Video Still/Gary McBride)

    Jonathon Moseley, who represents Oath Keeper Kelly Meggs of Dunnellon, Florida, seeks to intervene in Judicial Watch Inc. v. U.S. Capitol Police, a 2021 lawsuit that aims to unmask most of the Jan. 6 video footage now hidden from the public by court seal.

    “Having seen the documents and records under the court’s protective order, Jonathon Moseley can testify and affirm, and hereby does so, that there is no valid reason for the documents and records to be withheld from the public,” Moseley wrote in a Feb. 11 motion in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

    Ashli Babbitt pleads with police to call for backup at the Speaker’s Lobby doors on Jan. 6, 2021. Overhead CCTV video footage now under court seal could answer many questions about her shooting death. (Video Still / ©Tayler Hansen)

    U.S. District Judge Florence Y. Pan denied Moseley’s motion to intervene, ruling he did not make sufficient effort to determine how Judicial Watch and U.S. Capitol Police viewed his motion.

    “The movants do not have a conditional right to intervene under a federal statute, nor do they state a claim or defense that shares with the main action a common question of law or fact,” Pan wrote.

    The U.S. Congress is exempt from the Freedom of Information Act. The U.S. Capitol Police, as a subsidiary of Congress, isn’t bound by the 1966 law that generally requires the federal government to disclose records and other information to the public upon request.

    Judicial Watch sued Capitol Police in January 2021 under the common-law right of access, a legal principle that the public has a right to access public records and documents.

    Judicial Watch sued for the release of all video recorded between noon and 9 p.m. on Jan. 6, 2021, and for emails between the U.S. Capitol Police executive team and the police board, as well as emails between police and the FBI, U.S. Department of Justice, and the Department of Homeland Security.

    Capitol Police filed a motion claiming it isn’t bound to release records due to sovereign immunity, a legal doctrine that shields governments from being sued for civil wrongs.

    Despite the Capitol Police’s stated concerns that releasing the trove of video would expose security means and methods, Moseley said he sees a different reason for the secrecy.

    “They don’t want the public to see that the vast majority of what went on was very peaceful,” Moseley told The Epoch Times. “There were the violent videos they’ve shown, are all in just one location, or in a courtyard. You know, they keep showing over and over again this battle in the archway—that’s just one entrance out of a building that’s 700 feet long. So I think it would dilute their narrative to show everything.”

    Moseley said that on a recent tour of the Capitol arranged by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, Capitol Police forbade the defense attorneys and investigators from photographing certain areas, including things that are visible from the street. They also prohibited photographs of the galleries in the House of Representatives.

    Defendants charged with breaching the doors argue this CCTV video shows the doors were opened from the inside. (Video Still/U.S. Department of Justice)

    “They designated that as non public—we couldn’t take photographs of the galleries,” Moseley said. “I’m like, ‘What the heck?’ These will be visible during the State of the Union to anybody around the world.

    “So that’s one of the big things, their claim that this would compromise the Capitol’s security to show these things.” Moseley said. “It’s one of the things that I wanted to knock down and say, ‘You can’t hide behind that as an excuse.’”

    Moseley expressed frustration that the government’s selective release of video clips and the nearly constant condemnations of Jan. 6 defendants by some jurists and members of Congress have tainted the jury pool for the trials scheduled to begin in the coming weeks and months. He said he will seek a change of venue for the Meggs case.

    “There’s been nonstop condemnation of these defendants by the attorney general, by other judges as they’ve been sentencing people,” Moseley said. “They’ve made comments that go far beyond the individual that they’re talking about, made generalized condemnations of all the defendants, most of whom haven’t gone to trial yet.

    “There’s also the concern that the ability to pick and choose what’s released prevents a check and balance on the government and the Congress,” Moseley said. “If they knew everything was public, they might be a little more careful with what they say.”

    The jury pool in the District of Columbia has been “incurably influenced,” Moseley wrote in his motion to intervene in the Judicial Watch case.

    “Kelly Meggs as a criminal defendant is being personally prejudiced by the one-sided tsunami of false but prejudicial information,” Moseley wrote, “while the government—including the U.S. Capitol Police—pick and choose what information with which to smear these defendants in public and condemn them in public, while withholding an equal measure of exculpatory information.”

    In a filing in the Judicial Watch case, Thomas DiBiase, general counsel for U.S. Capitol Police, said the release of video footage could provide valuable security information to people who might seek to attack the Capitol again.

    Video can also be considered security information that is “sensitive with respect to the policing, protection, physical security, intelligence, counter-terrorism actions or emergency preparedness.” Of the more than 14,000 hours of footage, only about 17 hours to date was designated “security information,” DiBiase said.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 22:20

  • Air-Taxi Startup Hits Turbulence After "Experimental Prototype Aircraft Accident"
    Air-Taxi Startup Hits Turbulence After “Experimental Prototype Aircraft Accident”

    Joby Aviation, the maker of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) air taxi craft, announced in a filing that one of its “experimental prototype aircraft was involved in an accident during flight testing at our remote flight test base in California.” 

    The California-based eVTOL start-up said, “we have been expanding our flight envelope with a remote pilot and in an uninhabited area, especially as we operate outside expected operating conditions.” There were no reports of injures. 

    Joby is preparing to revolutionize transportation in metro areas with its electric eVTOLs. The vehicles can transport a pilot and four passengers as far as 150 miles, reaching a top speed of 200 mph. 

    Joby Aviation went public via a SPAC in August 2021. The deal to bring the start-up public was worth $4.5 billion. Shares in the company have slid more than 50% since the public debut. News of the crash sent prices down 6% on Thursday.  

    The filing also noted that the company would be working with “relevant authorities” to investigate the accident. There have yet to be any mentions of what exactly went wrong, nor if commercialization timelines have been shifted due to safety concerns. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 22:00

  • Former Harvard Prof. Martin Kulldorff: 'Science and Public Health Are Broken'
    Former Harvard Prof. Martin Kulldorff: ‘Science and Public Health Are Broken’

    Authored by Charlotte Cuthbertson via The Epoch Times,

    Dr. Martin Kulldorff is one of the most qualified public health pandemic experts in the United States.

    To the narrative-shapers, he’s a pariah.

    Dr. Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist and statistician, at his home in Ashford, Conn., on Feb. 11, 2022. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

    As a prominent epidemiologist and statistician, Kulldorff has worked on detecting and monitoring infectious disease outbreaks for two decades. His methods are widely used around the world and by almost every state health department in the United States, as well as by hundreds of people at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

    Kulldorff has also worked on vaccine safety for decades, developing globally used methods for monitoring adverse reactions in new vaccines.

    His résumé on the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website is 45 pages long and includes a list of 201 peer-reviewed published journal papers. His work has been cited more than 27,000 times.

    Since 2003, Kulldorff worked at Harvard Medical School, first as an associate professor of population medicine and later as a professor of medicine.

    In November, Harvard and Kulldorff abruptly parted ways.

    Kulldorff prefers to keep the reasons private, but it’s hard to ignore that he placed himself in the crosshairs of the pandemic narrative early on in the “15 days to slow the spread” lockdown and has since paid the price.

    It’s quite something for a public health scientist at the top of his game to admit that “both science and public health are broken.”

    “For some reason, a public official narrative was established, and you weren’t allowed to question it—which, of course, is very detrimental, both to the pandemic and how to deal with the pandemic, because you have to have a vibrant discussion to figure out how best to deal with these things,” he told The Epoch Times.

    The Swedish native said he tried to point out in March 2020 that there was a very steep age gradient on mortality for COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

    Kulldorff said he attempted to publish a paper both in U.S. medical journals and mainstream newspapers stating that while anyone could contract the virus, the focus should be on protecting the elderly and those at high risk. His paper was knocked back from all directions.

    “I was able to publish in Sweden, in the major daily newspapers there during the spring of 2020, so that was not a problem,” he said. “But the United States was not allowed to have a debate, which is very troubling.”

    Dr. Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist and statistician, at his home in Ashford, Conn., on Feb. 11, 2022. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

    The Great Barrington Declaration

    His early efforts culminated in the Great Barrington Declaration, published with Dr. Sunetra Gupta and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya in October 2020. The declaration called for a more nuanced approach to the one-size-fits-all restrictions that had been imposed on much of Western society.

    “The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk,” the declaration states.

    The two other authors are also amply qualified in the field. Gupta is a professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. Bhattacharya is a professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

    Kulldorff said the Great Barrington Declaration proposed nothing new.

    “It’s just the basic fundamental principles of public health that existed in the pandemic preparedness plan that was prepared many years before,” he said. “It’s sort of astonishing that it wasn’t followed from the very beginning of the pandemic.”

    Conventional public health science had deemed it unnecessary and potentially harmful to close schools and small businesses, to impose masking on the general public, and to quarantine healthy people.

    Kulldorff said the document wasn’t for the politicians, or scientists, or even the doctors—although thousands of each signed it.

    “The most important audience was the public,” he said, “because it’s the public that ultimately will end these misguided public health policies. It’s the public, regular people, who are suffering the consequences.”

    L–R: Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at University of Oxford, and Jay Bhattacharya, professor of medicine at Stanford University, at the American Institute for Economic Research in Massachusetts on Oct. 3, 2020. (Courtesy of The American Institute for Economic Research)

    He said the authors wanted to advise the average person that their intuition was correct, that the restrictions weren’t based on public health science—”so when you oppose them, you’re standing on firm scientific ground.”

    “The key thing was to break the pretense that there was scientific consensus for these lockdowns—which there wasn’t.”

    The appearance of a scientific consensus was formed through high-profile public health officials such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Francis Collins, and Dr. Deborah Birx, as well as corporate media along with  the stifling of opposing viewpoints.

    “There’s really no public health arguments against the declaration. So if you want to criticize it, you have to … make up lies about it and then attack that, as well as slander the people behind it. And they did both of those things,” Kulldorff said.

    It wasn’t until a December 2021 email dump that Kulldorff and the American public got to peek behind the curtain of how the traditional pandemic playbook had been tossed and how swiftly dissenting voices were maligned.

    Following a Freedom of Information Act request, emails that involved Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), were released. An email to Fauci from Collins, then-director of the National Institutes of Health, was sent days after the Great Barrington Declaration was published.

    “This proposal from the three fringe epidemiologists … seems to be getting a lot of attention,” Collins told Fauci in the Oct. 8, 2020, email. “There needs to be a quick and devastating published takedown of its premises. I don’t see anything like that online yet—is it underway?”

    Collins’s four-line email mentioned that the declaration included “even a co-signature from Nobel Prize winner Mike Leavitt at Stanford.”

    Fauci appears to have been in full agreement with Collins’s proposal to take down the authors and their declaration, sending a one-line reply.

    “I am pasting in below a piece from the Wired [magazine] that debunks this theory,” he wrote. Collins replied. “Excellent.”

    Within a day of the Collins–Fauci exchange, Google began to censor search results for “Great Barrington Declaration.”

    In a subsequent interview, Collins said the declaration “is not mainstream science. It’s dangerous.”

    Fauci called the declaration “ridiculous” and “total nonsense” in an interview with ABC.

    Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health and Dr. Robert Redfield (R), director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, testify at a Senate hearing in Washington on July 2, 2020. (Saul Loeb-Pool/Getty Images)

    A cavalcade of articles from corporate media outlets ensued, with a common theme to disparage the declaration and its authors.

    The New York Times called focused protection a “viral theory.”

    BuzzFeed called it a “highly controversial recommendation.”

    Forbes called the declaration’s detractors “real infectious disease and public health experts.”

    “Anti-lockdown advocate appears on radio show that has featured Holocaust deniers,” a Guardian headline blared, referring to Kulldorff’s interview on the “Richie Allen Show.”

    Gregg Gonsalves, an associate professor of epidemiology at Yale, called the focused protection strategy “a massacre” and a “straw man argument” produced by “fancy scientists,” in a Twitter thread a week after the declaration was published.

    Kulldorff, when asked if he’d ever considered himself a “fringe epidemiologist,” said, “No I have not, but I guess, when the public health leaders get it wrong, then it’s an honor to be a fringe epidemiologist.”

    A kindergarten classroom sits empty at the KT Murphy Elementary School in Stamford, Conn., on March 17, 2020. (John Moore/Getty Images)

    Social media giants such as Twitter and Facebook jumped on the censorship bandwagon and started labeling certain posts as misleading, while permanently banning journalists such as Alex Berenson.

    Berenson’s final tweet before being purged was about the COVID-19 vaccines.

    “It doesn’t stop infection. Or transmission,” he posted on Aug. 28, 2021. “Think of it—at best—as a therapeutic with a limited window of efficacy and terrible side effect profile that must be dosed in advance of illness. And we want to mandate it? Insanity.”

    Berenson, a former New York Times journalist, has since sued Twitter.

    “You always have to be allowed to question science,” Kulldorff said. “We should never silence that debate, pretend that there’s some person who is ‘The Science,’ who has all the truths.

    “I think that happened during this pandemic and that’s an embarrassment for the scientific community.”

    In an interview at the end of November 2021, Fauci lashed out at Republican senators who had criticized him.

    “They’re really criticizing science, because I represent science,” Fauci told CBS.

    Personal Life

    Kulldorff was 8 years old when he first came to reside in the United States. His father, also a scientist, moved the family from Sweden for a one-year university sabbatical in 1970.

    It was October, and two weeks after arriving in Texas, Kulldorff’s mother told him to don a costume and head out with the local children.

    “We walked around the neighborhood, and everywhere we knocked on the door, they gave us candy. So that was pretty nice for an 8-year-old. And I’ve liked this country ever since,” he said.

    Kulldorff returned to the United States for a couple of years in the 1980s for his doctoral work, and in the early ’90s, he made the move permanent.

    The original dream for Kulldorff was to teach high school math and history. He laughs about it still being a backup plan if his current career falls apart.

    Dr. Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist and statistician, at his home in Ashford, Conn., on Feb. 11, 2022. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

    He still sees fatherhood as his most important job. As a single father with a 19-year-old son and twin 6-year-olds, he spends a lot of time with his children.

    “I think the most wonderful and the most important thing in life is to be a parent and see your children grow up,” he said. “So I have always spent plenty of time with them since they were born. I’ve always prioritized that over my career.”

    He said the twins were fortunate during the pandemic restrictions in Connecticut to have each other as built-in playmates.

    His oldest son was 17 when the pandemic started.

    “I wasn’t concerned about him getting COVID because I knew that the risk for him is minuscule. But I was very concerned about his mental health. So I was urging him to go out there and play basketball with his friends, hang out with them, do those social things. I wanted him to have as normal a life as possible.”

    A Brooklyn restaurant sits closed in the early evening after a decree that all bars and restaurants shutdown by 8 p.m. in New York City on March 16, 2020. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

    Why Take a Stand?

    Kulldorff has worked in both the Swedish and U.S. health science fields, and followed closely his native country’s very different, less invasive response to the pandemic.

    His family members in the Nordic country understood when he took a divergent tack to the U.S. mainstream narrative of harsh lockdowns, closing schools, and mandatory masking.

    “Sweden had a more sane approach to it, so they didn’t find it strange what I was saying,” he said.

    He didn’t set out to be a rebel, and there wasn’t much hand wringing behind Kulldorff’s decision to go against the grain when he saw the tried-and-true pandemic response being cast aside.

    “I don’t think I have a choice. Since I worked on infectious disease outbreaks for two decades and they instituted policies that go against the basic principles to public health, I can’t just be silent. I have to speak up. There’s no other alternative,” he said.

    “Otherwise, what’s the point of being a public health scientist?”

    He’s quick to show support for other scientists who agree with him but feel as if they can’t speak out due to potential loss of research funding or even their job. People such as Fauci, who oversees an annual taxpayer-funded budget of over $6 billion at NIAID, hold the purse strings as well as control of what’s published in journals.

    “If you dare speak out against [Fauci’s] views on the pandemic, you can lose funding. And if you agree with him and support him, you can gain funding,” Kulldorff said.

    Four prominent scientists who were instrumental in shaping the COVID-19 “natural origin” narrative received substantial increases in grant money from Fauci’s NIAID in the subsequent two years, The Epoch Times found.

    “So I fully understand that scientists are very afraid of criticizing the policies championed by the guy who sits on the biggest chunk of infectious disease research money in the world,” Kulldorff said.

    “We shouldn’t have those conflicts. Research should be very broad, and we should fund broadly different ideas, and some pan out and some don’t, but that’s how you do good science.”

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies at a House hearing in Washington on July 31, 2020. (Kevin Dietsch-Pool/Getty Images)

    Collateral Damage

    One of the major precepts behind the Great Barrington Declaration is that public health is wide-ranging and needs a long-term view, yet many influential scientists had a singular focus on COVID-19 outcomes.

    “One of the principles of public health is, it’s not about one disease, like COVID, it’s about all of public health,” Kulldorff said.

    That singular focus resulted in government officials filling skateboard parks in California with sand and locking up children’s playgrounds with chains and yellow police tape. Millions of children were sent home from school and for almost two years were forced to learn virtually from home.

    Meanwhile, teen suicide rates have increased, drug and alcohol abuse has increased, domestic violence has risen, while childhood vaccinations decreased and cancer screenings plummeted.

    Health experts warned in May 2020 that as pandemic-driven hardship puts added strain on the mental health of Americans, as many as 154,000 extra lives may be lost due to drug or alcohol abuse and suicide, or “deaths of despair.”

    People were dying from cardiovascular diseases that, in normal circumstances, they would have survived, Kulldorff said,”because maybe they were afraid to go to the hospital, or they went too late.”

    “So these are all tragic consequences, collateral damage, of these COVID measures, restrictions that were imposed,” he said. “And you can’t just do that for a whole year or two and expect that it doesn’t have other enormously bad outcomes on public health.”

    Kulldorff anticipates that many of the ancillary health impacts have yet to surface.

    In January, a Johns Hopkins meta-analysis of lockdown data concluded that lockdowns didn’t save lives.

    The playground at Lincoln Park is closed during the pandemic in Los Angeles on March 21, 2020. (APU GOMES/AFP via Getty Images)

    What’s Next?

    Kulldorff is dedicating his next chapter to helping restore trust in science and public health—both of which he calls “broken.”

    “So it’s the heads of the funding agencies, the heads of the big journals, and the university presidents and deans who all went into the same bubble thinking that they knew what was right, and which turned out to be wrong,” Kulldorff said.

    “But all scientists now are going to have to suffer from that, because, for good reasons, the public won’t trust scientists anymore.”

    He’s working with the Brownstone Institute as the scientific director to navigate how to shore up public health again. He’s also part of Hillsdale College’s new Academy for Science and Freedom, which he says will promote and defend the importance of open, free scientific discourse.

    “It’s very clear that if we want to have vibrant science, and a vibrant scientific community, we have to reform the way science operates and the way public health operates,” he said.

    But, Kulldorff said, it’s up to the public—the truckers, farmers, nurses, pilots, and parents—as well as rank-and-file scientists to effect real change.

    It’s also time to compassionately help each other heal from the psychological and mental wounds, he said, especially those still living in constant fear of COVID and those who have been self-isolating for two years now.

    “I think we shouldn’t blame those who were afraid, because they were major victims of this pandemic strategy,” he said.

    “We shouldn’t blame people for believing Anthony Fauci and the CDC—that was the natural thing to do. We just have to help them realize that these measures were misguided so that never happens again.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 21:40

  • Cities Where Homes Cost An Average Of $1 Million Or More Have Doubled In The Last 5 Years
    Cities Where Homes Cost An Average Of $1 Million Or More Have Doubled In The Last 5 Years

    As the real estate market continues to scorch higher, part and parcel with the brutal inflation the nation is facing, the idea of million dollar homes is now becoming commonplace.

    Houses over $1 million have become “the norm” in 481 U.S. cities, according to new analysis from Bloomberg. This is double the number from five years ago, the report says, citing Zillow data released Wednesday.

    146 cities reached the million dollar tier in 2021, the report says – it’s most ever in a single year. 10 years ago, the number of cities with million dollar average home costs was just 126. 

    And while some asset classes have pulled back thanks to the Fed’s hawkish (sounding) stance, real estate has endured. Home prices were up 19.6% last year, the report says. Idaho, Montana and Tennessee all had cities break the million dollar mark for the first time in 2021. California, Massachusetts and New York all had the most new cities with million dollar average home values.

    Newcomers to the list, per Bloomberg, include:

    • Garrison, Montana: Avg. home prices +26% in 2021 to $1.2 million.
    • Gallatin Gateway, Montana: Avg. home prices +33% to $1.2 million.
    • West Glacier, Montana: Avg. home prices +23% to $1.2 million.
    • Ketchum, Idaho: Avg. home prices +32% to $1.1 million.
    • Sun Valley, Idaho: Avg. home prices +31% to $1 million.
    • Hayden Lake, Idaho: Avg. home prices +47% to $1 million.
    • Brentwood, Tennessee: Avg. home prices +37% to $1 million.

    49 more cities are poised to break the $1 million barrier this year if price trends hold, the report says. 

    Florida’s Indian Creek Village – a 300-acre island with less than 100 residents – is the most expensive, with an average home value at $28.3 million.  Atherton on the San Francisco Peninsula came in second, with an average home value of $7.7 million. 

    Jeff Tucker, senior economist for Zillow, told Bloomberg: “We’re seeing how the geography of wealth in the U.S. has begun to shift, as 2021 was the first year for both Idaho and Montana to place any cities on this list, and now those Western states boast three million-dollar cities each.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 21:20

  • Futures Spike After Secretary Of State Blinken Accepts Meeting With Lavrov Next Week
    Futures Spike After Secretary Of State Blinken Accepts Meeting With Lavrov Next Week

    After a dismal day for risk which saw the S&P close down more than 2% and the Nasdaq tumble as much as 3% amid sharply heightened tensions in Ukraine where we got he-shot/she-shot reports of shelling in the Donbas regions and escalate diplomatic animosity to a fever pitch, moments ago futures jumped after State Dept. spokesperson Ned Price said  in a statement that Russia responded to a U.S. offer for meeting between Blinken and Lavrov in Europe with proposed dates for late next week, and the U.S. has accepted “provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

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    Redundantly, Price added that “if they do invade in the coming days, it will make clear they were never serious about diplomacy.” Of course, this is trivial because if Putin really wanted to invade he would have done so by now, and as David Rosenberg also correctly notes,  Putin “knows better than blow up the Russian economy. Diplomacy will win out and he’s going to end up getting what he wants”…

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    … but not before a whole lot of huffing and puffing drama, so it appears that the US at least fought bravely.

    Russia told the U.S. in its official response to security proposals from Washington that it has no plans to attack, and officials in Moscow have repeatedly dismissed U.S. warnings of a possible move against Ukraine as “hysteria” and propaganda. Its foreign ministry handed over a document Thursday with its views, saying the U.S. response was unsatisfactory. The two sides in the conflict in eastern Ukraine — government forces and Moscow-backed separatists — accused each other of breaking cease-fire rules.

    Elsewhere, Biden will speak with transatlantic leaders on Friday about the Russian troop buildup, a White House official said on Thursday night. Also on Thursday night, the U.S. Senate passed a non-binding resolution in support of Ukraine.

    In kneejerk response to the news, S&P futures jumped more than 30 points and we trading back above 4400 last…

    … and the Nasdaq was up almost 1%, with safe havens like gold and Treasuries selling off, sending the 10Y yields back to 1.99%.

    And now, absent some further dramatic escalations, risk will likely squeeze for the next few days until the Putin-Blinked meeting, at which point we reset and we repeat this charade all over again.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 21:10

  • Ex-CIA Official: A Major Concession Was Buried In All The Shrill US-Russia Back & Forth
    Ex-CIA Official: A Major Concession Was Buried In All The Shrill US-Russia Back & Forth

    Authored by Ray McGovern via AntiWar.com,

    “’Foiled again!’ rose the cry from those expecting Russian President Vladimir Putin to step out of character and risk war, just as he finally succeeds in getting the U.S. to take Russia’s security concerns seriously – and even address them.” Today we can simply recycle the above lede sentence from our article four weeks ago: Godot Likely To Arrive Before Russia Invades Ukraine.

    New this time, and so far unique, is the lack-of-spin headline and lede that the AP promptly used this week in reporting on the significance of the talks held in Moscow by Russian President Vladimir Putin and visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. (Headline and lede sentences follow.)

    Russia ready to discuss confidence-building measures, Putin says after talks with Germany’s Scholtz

    Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Moscow is ready for talks with the US and NATO on limits on missile deployments and military transparency, in a new sign of easing East-West tensions. The statement came after Russia announced it is pulling back some troops from exercises that have raised fears of a potential invasion of Ukraine.

    Via Reuters: Russian Iskander-M missile launchers

    Has AP Learned a Lesson?

    Over recent weeks, AP’s ace reporter Matthew Lee and colleagues had been repeatedly led down the White House garden path by the likes of broken-record “the-Russians-are-coming-and-it-could-be-Wednesday” national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Might it be that, this time, at least one AP honcho became so weary of this drivel, that s/he decided to go ahead and publish before receiving the customary Guidance Memo from the powers that be, telling the Establishment media how to spin major events?

    This time, the “guidance” came from President Joe Biden himself, who stuck to Sullivan’s ad-nauseam alerts that a Russia invasion “remains distinctly possible.” Reuters, too, apparently got the Memo in time and dutifully reported:

    The Kremlin sought to portray its moves as proof that Western talk of war had been both false and hysterical.

    “February 15, 2022 will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed. Humiliated and destroyed without a single shot fired,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.

    Russia’s defense ministry published footage showing tanks and other armored vehicles being loaded onto railway flatcars. But Western military analysts said they needed more information to judge the significance of the latest troop movements.

    Putin With Scholz

    At Tuesday’s press conference, Chancellor Scholz at times played straight man for Putin, calling the announcement of the Russian troop pullback a “good signal” and agreeing that diplomatic options are “far from exhausted”, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had reported to Putin on Monday. Here’s what’s important (and was given appropriate prominence in AP’s reporting).

    Putin at the presser with Scholz:

    “… as [Lavrov] reported yesterday, the [US and NATO] responses still contain a number of considerations that we are not only ready to discuss but that we have actually suggested to our partners over the years. I am referring to our proposals on European security, certain weapons systems, notably, intermediate and shorter-range missiles, and military transparency. We are ready to continue this joint work. … [Emphasis added.]

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    So far, the NYT has omitted that statement by Putin, which, coming together with the troop pullback, is highly significant. That the Times “forgot” to include it is yet another sign that even the most sensible, rudimentary negotiations on key matters of concern to Russia will be resisted tooth and nail by the MICIMATT (Military-Industrial-Congressional-MEDIA-Academia-Think-Tank) complex in which the NYT is right there in the middle, the fulcrum – the key “M.”

    Still, some Times editor apparently insisted on slipping in the important acknowledgment by Mr. Biden that:

    “Neither the US or NATO have missiles in Ukraine. We do not, do not have plans to put them there as well.” [Emphasis added.]

    Biden made this commitment to Putin during the telephone call of Dec. 30 that Putin had urgently requested. It amounts to a major concession and enabled Moscow to conclude that at least one or two of Biden’s retinue – or Biden himself – have their heads screwed on right.

    In sum, at the risk of boring Antiwar.com readers who have heard this many times before, this issue represents the most fruitful negotiating path. A key remaining question is whether the MICIMATT can thwart it. All in all, this week gave a glimmer of hope that if others of the MEDIA follow AP’s example, US citizens will become better informed of the realities and thus be chary of giving credulity to officials like Jake Sullivan. As President Eisenhower warned 61 years ago, only “an informed citizenry” can prevent inordinate accretion of power by the MIC, the Military-Industrial-Complex.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 21:00

  • Cargo Ship Carrying Thousands Of Porsches, Bentleys & Audis Stranded At Sea After Massive Fire
    Cargo Ship Carrying Thousands Of Porsches, Bentleys & Audis Stranded At Sea After Massive Fire

    As if the global supply chain for large goods like cars wasn’t already hopelessly snarled enough, a massive cargo ship called the Felicity Age has caught fire near the mid-Atlantic islands, forcing its crew to abandon the ship (and its valuable cargo).

    According to The Washington Post, the ship and all 22 crew members have been rescued…but the Porsches, Volkswagens, Audis and other brand-new cars left on board are still adrift in the middle of the Atlantic.

    The cars were expected to be delivered to North America…but they hit a snag when the ship’s engine room caught fire earlier this month.

    The 656-foot long ship departed from its origin port in Emden, Germany on February 10, and was set to arrive at its destination port in Davisville, Rhode Island on February 23. On February 16, the vessel let out a distress signal after a fire broke out in the cargo hold. Shortly after, a Portuguese navy patrol boat, along with four merchant vessels, responded to help with the rescue.

    There’s an ongoing effort to bring the situation back under control, according to The Drive, though a photo taken from aboard one of the assisting merchant ships and shared by Greek publication Naftika Chronika on Wednesday shows the Felicity Ace seemingly ablaze from a distance.

    Given the number of cars being held on the ship, treasure hunters or perhaps mercenaries hired by the ship’s insurer may be going after it, hoping to rescue some of the cars for themselves. Approximately 2,500 cars is a significant number, considering the situation both in the US and around the world.

    Apparently, Porsche isn’t worried.Porsche gave the following statement to Road & Track:

    Our immediate thoughts are of relief that the 22 crew of the merchant ship “Felicity Ace” are safe and well.

    A number of our cars are among the cargo. We are in contact with the shipping company and the details of the cars on board are now known. Customers affected by the incident are being contacted by their dealer.

    While it remains too early to confirm what occurred and next steps, we are—along with our colleagues at Porsche AG—supporting our customers and our dealers as best we can to find solutions. Anyone concerned by this incident and the implications on the car they’ve ordered should maintain in contact with dealer with which their order was placed.

    We believe around 1,100 of our cars were among the estimated 2,500 vehicles on board the ship at the time of the incident.

    Nearly 200 Bentleys are also onboard the stranded vessel, along with “a number” of Audis.

    A Bentley spokesperson confirmed to The Drive that 189 of its vehicles are also on board the Felicity Ace, worth an estimated $30 million by themselves, according to the publication. The Drive also confirmed with Audi that a number of its cars were also aboard the now-abandoned ship, but the company declined to elaborate on just how many.

    Customers are commiserating online, sharing tips on message boards about what they can do if a car belonging to them remains aboard.

    It’s unclear right now what will happen to all of the cars aboard the now-abandoned cargo ship as it continues to float through the Atlantic. Buyers waiting for their cars to be delivered have shared their concerns both on Porsche forum Rennlist and Volkswagen forum VWIDTalk, while people on 718forum.com are reportedly receiving a message from the company’s “Track Your Dream” service notifying them the company is aware of the Felicity Ace situation, and to contact their dealer for more info.

    […]

    Not all hope is lost for the buyers of extra-special Porsches, though. Back in 2019 Porsche restarted production of the 911 GT2 RS after four of the last allocations were lost on a sunken cargo ship.

    If the cars are eventually lost, the manufacturers will more likely than not replace the new models that their customers are waiting for, even if that requires them to move mountains on the production side. Then again, it could still create some serious problems by forcing customers to wait, possibly for months.

    Keep in mind, according to Maritime Law, whoever recovers the ship is entitled to compensation under the “law of salvage”. Of course, if pirates get there first, they might take the entire cargo for themselves, if they could find a way to move or tow the ship away.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 20:40

  • Society Vs State: Canada Reveals The Core Conflict Of Our Age
    Society Vs State: Canada Reveals The Core Conflict Of Our Age

    Authored by David McGrogan via The Brownstone Institute,

    Justin Trudeau’s confrontation with the Canadian truckers may be the single most significant event of the Covid pandemic – not because of its eventual outcome, whatever that may be, but because of what it symbolises. It captures, in perfect microcosm, the tensions between the competing imperatives of the age: freedom versus security; the rule of law versus flexible ‘responsive’ governance; the priorities of the workers versus those of the Zooming bourgeoisie; the need for real-world human interaction and belonging versus the promises of splendid online isolation; the experiences of the common man, who knows where it hurts, versus those of the professional expert class, who know nothing that cannot be expressed as a formula. 

    More than all of that, though, it gives us a lens through which to view a much deeper, much older conflict of much larger scope – one which underlies not just the struggles of the Covid age, but of modernity itself. On the one hand, the state, which seeks to make all of society transparent to its power. On the other, alternative sources of authority – the family, the church, the community, the firm, the farm, and the human individual herself. 

    For centuries, the state has waged a quiet war against those competitors, and bent them to its will. It has done this not through conspiracy or deliberate strategy but merely through the single-minded pursuit, across generation after generation of political leaders, of one goal: legitimacy. Governments and other state organs derive their legitimacy, and therefore their positions of rulership, from convincing the population that they are necessary. 

    They do this by suggesting that without their intervention, things will go badly; left to their own devices, ordinary people will suffer. The family, the church, the community, the firm, the farm, the human individual – these are inadequate to the task of securing human well-being. That task, only the state is equipped to achieve, for only the state can keep the population educated, healthy, safe, prosperous and satisfied. Since this is the case, only the state is fit to deploy power – and only those who govern the state are fit to rule. 

    The logic of this argument is writ large, of course, in the Covid response across the developed world. What will keep us ‘safe?’

    Certainly not traditional sources of succour, such as the church or the family. Certainly not individual people, who cannot be trusted to behave responsibly or assess risks for themselves.

    No – it is only the state, first with its lockdowns, then with its social distancing, its mask mandates, its vaccine programs, and lately its vaccine mandates and ‘passports.’ It is only the state’s power that saves and secures. And since only the state can save, it is the only legitimate source of authority – along, of course, with its leaders. 

    The state portraying itself as saviour in this fashion is patently false and absurd given what has taken place over the past two years. But as false and absurd as it is, it remains the subtext behind all of Covid policy. Justin Trudeau must derive his legitimacy from somewhere to maintain power. And he senses – political animal that he is – that he can derive it from displaying the Canadian state (with himself at the helm, of course) as the only thing standing between the Canadian public and suffering and death. 

    It is the state, remember – in this case with its vaccine mandates – that saves and secures. Without it, the reasoning goes, the population would suffer and die as Covid ran riot. The political logic is inescapable. For a man like Trudeau, without principle except that he alone is fit to govern, there is only one path to follow. Insist that it is the state that saves and secures, and that anything that stands in its way – truckers beware – must therefore be crushed beneath its heel. 

    The truckers, for their part, represent everything that the state despises. They have a social and political power that is independent from it, and hence form one of the alternative sources of power which it hates and fears. This power derives not from some institution which the truckers dominate, but simply from their status amongst what I will refer to as the yeomanry classes – almost the last bastion of self-sufficiency and independence in a modern society such as Canada. 

    In a developed economy, most of the professional classes – doctors, academics, teachers, civil servants and the like – derive their incomes and status entirely or partially, directly or indirectly, from the existence of the state. If they are not civil servants, their status is built on regulatory apparatus which only the state can build and enforce. This is also, of course, true of the underclass, who are often almost totally reliant on the state for the meeting of their needs. The members of these classes pose no threat to the state’s legitimacy, because, simply put, they need it. It, as a consequence, is perfectly happy to tolerate their existence – and, indeed, it wishes all of society were that way inclined. A population entirely reliant on the state is one which will never question the necessity of the growth of its power and hence its capacity to buttress its own legitimacy. 

    But in the middle are those people, the modern yeomanry, who derive their incomes from private sources, as sole traders, owners of small businesses, or employees of SMEs. Independent-minded, seeing self-sufficiency as a virtue, and relying on themselves and their relationships with others rather than the state, these modern yeomen represent a natural barrier to its authority. Simply put, they do not need it. They earn their money through the use of a particular skill which others value and hence pay for on the open market. 

    Whether or not the state exists is immaterial to their success – and, indeed, it very frequently stands in their way. These are the type of people who, seeing a problem, tend to want to find a solution for themselves. And they are precisely the kind of people who want to make up their own minds about whether to take a vaccine, and to assess health-related risks in general. 

    The modern state has waged incessant and covert war against the yeomanry in particular. At every step, it seeks to regulate their business affairs, restrict their liberty, and confiscate their prosperity. There is always a purportedly ‘good’ reason for this. But it contributes to an incessant whittling away of their independence and strength. It is no accident that they are described in British parlance as the ‘squeezed middle’ – squashed as they are between the welfare-reliant underclass on the one hand, and the white-collar professionals who draw their wealth, directly or indirectly, from the state on the other. 

    It is also no accident that these modern yeomen have gradually seen their political representation diminish over the course of the last 100 years, in whichever developed society one cares to name; the politicians they would elect would be mostly interested in getting the state out of the way, and modern politicians’ incentives all incline in the opposite direction. Their interest is in the inexorable growth of state power, because that is from where their legitimacy derives.

    Justin Trudeau’s contempt for the truckers is therefore genuine and profound. He sees in them not an obstacle to Covid policy or a potential threat to public health. Not even he could possibly be so stupid as to think it matters whether or not these people take their vaccines. No: he identifies in them a barrier to forces in which his political future is entwined – an ever-increasing scope and scale for governmental authority, and the opportunities to buttress his own legitimacy that would follow from it. 

    And his contempt for them is outweighed, of course, by his fear. Because he surely recognises that his authority is wafer-thin. Legitimacy cuts both ways. If he fails to suppress the truckers’ revolt, the entire edifice on which his authority rests – as the helmsman of the Canadian state and its purported capacity to protect the population from harm – will come tumbling down. 

    This conflict is therefore not about Covid – it’s existential. Does it matter if the truckers win or lose? No. What matters is what their efforts have revealed to us about the relationship between the state and society in 2022. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 20:20

  • Visualizing The Massive Jump In Anxiety & Depression Sparked By Pandemic Policies
    Visualizing The Massive Jump In Anxiety & Depression Sparked By Pandemic Policies

    Aside from killing more than 900,000 Americans to date and wreaking havoc on the country’s economy, the COVID-19 pandemic (and the accompanying draconian ‘health’ policies) has also taking a heavy toll on mental health.

    Statista’s Felix Richter notes that, according to data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics, more than 4 in 10 U.S. adults had developed symptoms of depression or anxiety by the end of 2020, a sharp increase over the results of a comparable survey conducted before the onset of the pandemic in 2019.

    The latest findings are derived from the Household Pulse Survey, which has been launched to produce data on the social and economic impacts of Covid-19 on American households.

    Since April 2020, tens of thousands of Americans have been asked to complete the web survey in order to “gauge the impact of the pandemic on employment status, consumer spending, food security, housing, education disruptions, and dimensions of physical and mental wellness.”

    Among other things, respondents were asked to report how often they have felt down, depressed, hopeless or anxious in the last week, how often they have been unable to stop worrying or shown little interest or pleasure in doing things – all symptoms that have been shown to be associated with diagnoses of generalized anxiety disorder or major depressive disorder.

    As the following chart shows, the share of respondents showing signs of anxiety or depression has roughly quadrupled compared to results obtained before the pandemic, with mental health issues particularly widespread towards the end of 2020.

    Infographic: Pandemic Causes Spike in Anxiety & Depression | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The question remains then – which has cause the most suffering: the virus, or the elites’ response to it (for our own safety)?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 20:00

  • Allianz Takes $4.2 Billion Charge Over Collapsed Hedge Fund Debacle
    Allianz Takes $4.2 Billion Charge Over Collapsed Hedge Fund Debacle

    2021 was a bad year for hedge funds, but few were hit as hard as insurance giant Allianz SE, which today announced it would take a €3.7 billion ($4.2 billion) charge tied to the implosion of some of its U.S. hedge funds.

    The provision will hit last year’s net income by €2.8 billion, the company said in a statement late Thursday. And while the insurer expects to settle with major investors in the funds shortly, bringing some clarity to months of uncertainty on the legal bill for the matter, discussions with other plaintiffs, the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission are ongoing. The company also warned that it can’t reliably estimate the total financial impact of the legal matter and expects additional expenses.

    Some background: the Allianz hedge fund investment strategy, known as Structured Alpha, used “complex option strategies” to generate predictable returns without excessive risk, but according to the investors, imploded in February and March 2020 after quietly removing hedges designed to minimize losses.

    What is remarkable is that the hedge funds offered by the AGI unit were designed to provide protection against a market crash. Instead, two of the Structured Alpha Funds were liquidated at the end of March 2020 after suffering massive losses, and Allianz has since wound down the rest.

    According to court papers, the Structured Alpha Global Equity 500 fund lost three-quarters of its value, lagging its benchmark by nearly 60 percentage points. Two other funds once worth $2.3 billion were liquidated, locking in investor losses.

    The collapse sparked a frenzy of lawsuits by investors alleging losses of some $6 billion, as well as an investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Back in August, Allianz warned that the hedge funds implosion could “materially impact” future earnings, after the U.S. Department of Justice started a probe into the funds.  Then, in September, a U.S. judge said Allianz must face investor claims it wrongly “abandoned” the investment strategies it promised to use on hedge funds that suffered massive losses as the COVID-19 pandemic shook markets early last year.

    It wasn’t all bad though: Allianz said operating profit rose 25% to 13.4 billion euros last year, and the company announced a plan to buy back as much as 1 billion euros of its own shares. Indeed, as Bloomberg notes, the hedge fund debacle “overshadowed a strong rebound at Allianz from the impact of the pandemic, with higher prices and an economic recovery fueling underlying earnings.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 20:00

  • Biden Admin Divided Over Redesignating Yemen's Houthis As Terrorists
    Biden Admin Divided Over Redesignating Yemen’s Houthis As Terrorists

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    Foreign Policy reported Wednesday that the UN has been warning the Biden administration against redesignating the Houthis as a “foreign terrorist organization” due to the impact it will have on Yemen’s starving civilian population.

    The report said that Brett McGurk, the top Middle East official on the National Security Council, led the drive to redesignate the Houthis as terrorists after the Yemeni group launched attacks on the UAE. But McGurk encountered pushback from other US officials during a meeting on February 4th.

    Yemeni Houthi militants, via AFP

    The report said top UN envoys, some officials from the State Department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID), and private importers that deliver goods to Yemen are all pressuring President Biden not to redesignate the Houthis. On the other side is the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, all pushing for the Yemeni group to be relisted. On February 8th, McGurk told UN envoy Martin Griffiths that the plan was on hold for now.

    The designation essentially criminalizes delivering food to Yemenis living in Houthi-controlled territories, which is about 60 percent of the country’s population. It means anyone that does business with the Houthis could be hit with US sanctions. The Biden administration said it would issue exemptions for aid groups, but the UN has pointed out that about 85 percent of Yemen’s food supplies come from commercial importers.

    “Yemenis need commercial imports to survive. Aid agencies cannot replace commercial imports,” the UN said in an internal memo that was obtained by Foreign Policy. “If the supply chain dries up, many more Yemenis will go hungry.”

    The Trump administration designated the Houthis as terrorists in January 2021. The move was quickly reversed by Biden, but even in that short time, many suppliers canceled orders to Yemeni importers. “There are already signs that food and other essential imports will fall if a new designation proceeds,” the memo reads.

    The Fahem Group, a large Yemeni importer, sent a letter to the UN warning of the consequences the designation could have. “The inevitable and immediate consequence of any designation will be that they will cease all trade with ourselves,” the Fahem Group said. “Cutting commercial imports to Yemen risks bringing famine and death to the Yemeni people who are already facing a grave humanitarian crisis.”

    The Fahem Group also said they were surprised that they were not consulted about the possible designation, signaling that the US has not bothered to really understand the impact the move would have. “To our knowledge, no consultations have occurred with any Yemeni importers (or the global businesses we work with) on the potential impact of a renewed designation,” the importer said.

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    Biden quickly reversed the designation when he first came to office due to the warnings from aid groups that it would push more Yemenis into starvation. Over the past year, conditions have only gotten worse in the country as the US-backed Saudi-led coalition has escalated its air campaign.

    The recent Houthi attacks on the UAE are a clear response to the Emirate’s role in the coalition that has been waging war on Yemen since 2015. In response to the Houthi attacks, the US is helping the UAE intercept missiles and deployed a warship and warplanes to the Gulf country, marking an escalation in Washington’s role in the war.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 19:40

  • Pioneer CEO Warns US Shale Can't Increase Supply Even If Biden Asks
    Pioneer CEO Warns US Shale Can’t Increase Supply Even If Biden Asks

    Drilling economics has never been better as oil prices could soon cross the $100 a barrel mark if global supplies remain tight and demand robust, along with the prospects of Russia’s crude exports derailed by tensions with Ukraine. Even with this bullish macro backdrop, a top U.S. oil and gas exploration and production company said they wouldn’t raise oil production even if prices increased further.

    Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield told analysts Thursday morning that its strategy to boost oil production from 0% to 5% won’t be affected even if oil prices surpass $100. “There’s no change for us,” he said, adding, “$100 oil, $150 oil, we’re not going to change our growth rate.”

    Sheffield said Pioneer favors stock buybacks more than acquisitions and has raised stock buyback authorization to $4 billion. He expects the company to focus on profitability, returning money to shareholders, and avoiding oversupplied conditions like the decade before. 

    He noted private producers in the Permian Basin need to be “reined in” for their high growth rates. He said a few private firms are raising output “at 15-20% are going to run out of inventory fairly quickly.” High growth output isn’t sustainable, he continued. 

    Sheffield made a surprising comment that Pioneer wouldn’t be able to increase production if the Biden administration requested. He warned that high inflation inhibits shale growth. 

    According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. oil production remains well below a pre-pandemic level of about 11.60 million barrels per day versus 13 million months before the 2020 lockdowns. Sheffield doesn’t believe total US production will roar back anytime soon. 

    Even though total US production is languishing, the EIA shows that parts of the shale patch, including the Bakken Region, Eagle Ford Region, and Permian Region, are growing at exceptional rates. 

    Bakken Region

    Eagle Ford Region

    Permian Region

    Private companies operating in the shale regions above are the ones Sheffield wants production to be dialed back. He also spoke to Bloomberg, reiterating how there would be no production increase if war broke out, and the company would focus on returning money to shareholders. 

    With Morgan Stanley joining Goldman Sachs and calling for $100 oil, and Bank of America’s commodity strategist Francisco Blanch laying out the idea of $120 oil… JPMorgan has one-upped everyone with an adverse geopolitical event between Russia and Ukraine could easily spark $150 oil. 

    Separately, Reuters’ commodity analyst John Kemp warned, “U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks are on course to fall critically low between now and the middle of the year, creating conditions for a potential spike in both crude and fuel prices.”

    Soaring gas prices have been terrible for President Biden’s polling data ahead of midterms. 

    Sheffield’s comments dash any hopes the Biden administration could see falling energy prices in the near term. Their attempt at the global coordinated SPR release failed and Biden’s begging OPEC+ to increase production rapidly has yet to materialize. Now it’s up to the Federal Reserve to crash the economy via aggressive tightening measures to tame inflation and get energy prices under control. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 19:20

  • Convoy Chaos: Organizers Arrested, Dogs Threatened, Accounts Frozen And Govt. Sued
    Convoy Chaos: Organizers Arrested, Dogs Threatened, Accounts Frozen And Govt. Sued

    Update (1904ET): The situation in Ottawa has gotten worse for the Freedom Convoy – with the arrest of key organizers Chris Barber and Tamara Lich.

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    Barber is currently in police custody and is expected to face criminal charges as the now-global protest against vaccine mandates and other restrictions enters its third week, according to the CBC.

    Barber is also one of three protest organizers named in the class action lawsuit filed with the Ontario Superior Court of Justice by lawyer Paul Champ on behalf of his client, 21-year-old public servant Zexi Li.

    The suit names Barber along with fellow convoy organizers Tamara Lich and Benjamin Dichter. 

    Earlier this month, Barber responded to criticism the protest was negatively affecting Ottawa residents by saying organizers had “empathy” for local residents.

    “We understand your frustration and genuinely wish there was another way for us to get our message across, but the responsibility for your inconvenience lies squarely on the shoulders of politicians who have [preferred] to vilify and call us names rather than engage in respectful, serious dialogue,” he said at the time. -CBC

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    Meanwhile, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association has announced its intention to sue the federal government for invoking the Emergencies Act in response to the ongoing protests and blockades, the CBC reports.

    “Emergency powers cannot and must not be normalized,” said CCLA executive director Noa Mendelsohn, who added that the use of the act “seriously infringes on the Charter rights of Canadians.”

    The Emergencies Act was invoked by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday in response to ongoing demonstrations against COVID-19 restrictions and vaccine mandates.

    The convoy protest in Ottawa has gridlocked the downtown core for more than 20 days, while other demonstrations have blocked international border crossings in Windsor, Ont. and Coutts, Alta. -CBC

    Mendelsohn said that reports of “violent, racist and homophobic acts” don’t rise to the level of introducing measures which the CCLA considers a violation of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

    “Protest is how people in a democracy share their political messages of all kinds, whether they be environmental activists, students taking to the streets, Indigenous land defenders, workers on strike, people who know that Black lives matter, and others who oppose government measures of all kinds,” Mendelsohn said.

    “Not every person may agree with the content of every movement.”

    *  *  *

    Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said Thursday that financial institutions have been actively freezing the accounts of people linked to the medical freedom protests in Ottawa, which has left an unknown number of protesters and donors in financial limbo, according to state-owned CBC.

    Freeland said that the RCMP and other law enforcement agencies have been gathering intelligence on convoy protesters and their supporters, and have been sharing that information with financial institutions in order to restrict access to both cash and crypto.

    “The names of both individuals and entities as well as crypto wallets have been shared by the RCMP with financial institutions and accounts have been frozen and more accounts will be frozen,” she said, referring to crypto exchange accounts.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsAs the CBC notes,

    The law also allows banks to target for account closure donors to the GoFundMe and the GiveSendGo fundraising campaigns that fuelled this protest. Freeland said she wouldn’t get into the “specifics of whose accounts are being frozen.”

    Citing terrorist financing laws, the government has forced crowdfunding websites and payment providers to register with the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC), the government’s financial intelligence unit.

    In a final warning to the assembled protesters, Freeland said those who have their big rigs on Ottawa’s streets will see their insurance cancelled and their corporate accounts suspended — a move that could make it difficult for these drivers to ever work again.

    “The consequences are real and they will bite,” she said.

    Update (1610ET): You know it’s bad when…

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    *  *  *

    Meanwhile mainstream outlet reporters are taking a hacked list of donors the GiveSendGo Freedom Convoy fundraiser and have been harassing people who donated as little as $50.

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    Oh, and if you’re arrested in Canada with your dog they’ll consider it ‘relinquished’ after 8 days.

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 19:04

  • Biden's $770B Pentagon Budget Proposal Denounced As "Absurd" By Progressive Dems
    Biden’s $770B Pentagon Budget Proposal Denounced As “Absurd” By Progressive Dems

    Authored by Julia Conley via Common Dreams, 

    With legislation to reduce childhood poverty and advance renewable energy stalled in Congress, the Biden administration is expected to request more than $770 billion in Pentagon and related spending for the fiscal year beginning in October. “This is absurd,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said in response to the news.

    The expected budget request, first reported by Reuters Wednesday, is tens of billions of dollars more than former Republican President Donald Trump ever requested and contrasts with widespread public demand for increased investment in middle- and lower-class Americans and an end to bloated military budgets.

    Getty Images

    The American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) pointed to recent polling by the organization which showed that 54% of adults in the U.S. want “the exact opposite” of increased military spending. “In the midst of a pandemic, the growing climate crisis, and ongoing issues nationwide, we need to invest in solutions instead of enriching defense contractors,” said the AFSC.

    According to Reuters, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has been negotiating with the White House Office of Management and Budget, arriving at a proposed budget that far exceeds those requested by Trump. Modernization of the United States’ nuclear arsenal and development of weapons to “to fight any potential future wars against China and Russia” have been identified by the administration as “must pay[s],” according to Reuters. Shipbuilding, space defense capabilities, and spending on F-35 jets made by Lockheed Martin are also priorities in the requested budget.

    Congress is likely to build on the proposed spending package and arrive at a number that exceeds the one suggested by Austin and President Joe Biden, as lawmakers did after Trump proposed nearly $753 billion for the Pentagon, Reuters reported.

    The proposal is expected to be officially announced by the White House as negotiations over the Build Back Better Act, the president’s $1.75 trillion 10-year investment in anti-poverty measures and climate action, is still being debated by lawmakers.

    That package was drastically reduced last year due to objections by right-wing Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to paid family and medical leave, an extension of the child tax credits that lifted millions of children out of poverty, and provisions to cut methane emissions and incentivize the use of renewable energy, before the senator ultimately announced he would not support what was left of the bill.

    Calls to vaccinate the global population in order to keep new variants of Covid-19 from cropping up and reaching the U.S. have also been largely met with inaction on Capitol Hill. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has said the effort would cost a total of $50 billion.

    “Devoting this enormous sum to the Pentagon at a time when the greatest challenges to our security—from pandemics to climate change—are not military in nature is both misguided and counterproductive,” said William Hartung, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute.

    Hartung noted that the proposal includes increased spending on modernizing the Pentagon’s “nuclear triad”—nuclear armed bombers, land-based missiles, and ballistic missile submarines:

    This buildup, which the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates will cost $634 billion over the next ten years, is dangerous and unnecessary.  The continuing commitment to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which former Secretary of Defense William Perry has called ‘one of the most dangerous weapons in the world’ because it could be launched on a false alarm and trigger an accidental nuclear war, is particularly troubling. Eliminating ICBMs would enhance our security. And a much smaller nuclear arsenal would be more than adequate to dissuade any nation from launching an attack on the United States.

    “It’s time to rethink U.S. military strategy to focus on the most urgent challenges we face and scale back capabilities for fighting unnecessary overseas wars and sustaining nuclear overkill,” Hartung added. “The Pentagon budget should be substantially reduced in keeping with such an approach.”

    Biden’s massive defense spending has outraged the far Left…

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    In addition to the AFSC’s recent polling, Pew Research Center released a national survey Wednesday regarding the U.S. public’s top priorities for 2022. Strengthening the economy was by far the most common priority named by respondents, with 71% saying it was most important. Reducing healthcare costs followed at 61% and 60% of respondents said dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic was their highest priority.

    Strengthening the military was named by just 37% of respondents and was a more popular response than only two others—dealing with global trade and dealing with drug addiction. “It’s time to stop pumping billions more each year into the bloated Pentagon budget,” said Jayapal. “We can and must cut defense spending and invest in our communities, families, and climate.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 19:00

  • Tuitions At NYC's Elite Private Schools Are Now Topping $60,000 Per Student
    Tuitions At NYC’s Elite Private Schools Are Now Topping $60,000 Per Student

    Prices of everything are going up – that includes private school tuition.

    With things at least somewhat returning to normal in New York City, including school’s re-opening and loosening Covid mandates, tuition at some private schools is set to top $60,000. 

    For example, the well known Spence School has already announced 3.5% tuition increases for the upcoming year, the New York Post reported this week. This will make its annual tuition $60,880 per student, despite parents requesting a tuition freeze for the upcoming year.

    The school reportedly wrote in a letter to parents: “The Trustees appreciate your commitment and recognize that all of our Spence families sacrifice to make their children’s education a priority. We are judicious in setting the annual budget.”

    Horace Mann and The Dalton School will also raise their tuitions above the $60,000 mark, the Post reported. Tuitions at many of the schools have “roughly doubled” over the course of the last 15 years. For example, Horace Mann and The Dalton School charged between $30,000 and $33,100 in 2008, the report says. 

    Meanwhile, it isn’t just tuition that is on the receiving end of the benefits of inflation. Headmaster Bodie Brizendine at the Spence School made $886,000 in 2019. She has told parents in the past that faculty compensation has accounted for 73% of tuition. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/17/2022 – 18:40

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Feb 17

Today’s News 17th February 2022

  • The Mind Control Police: The Government's War On Thought-Crimes & Truth-Tellers
    The Mind Control Police: The Government’s War On Thought-Crimes & Truth-Tellers

    Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”

    – George Orwell  

    The U.S. government, which speaks in a language of force, is afraid of its citizenry.

    What we are dealing with is a government so power-hungry, paranoid and afraid of losing its stranglehold on power that it is conspiring to wage war on anyone who dares to challenge its authority.

    All of us are in danger.

    In recent years, the government has used the phrase “domestic terrorist” interchangeably with “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist” to describe anyone who might fall somewhere on a very broad spectrum of viewpoints that could be considered “dangerous.” The ramifications are so far-reaching as to render almost every American an extremist in word, deed, thought or by association.

    In the government’s latest assault on those who criticize the government—whether that criticism manifests itself in word, deed or thought—the Biden Administration has likened those who share “false or misleading narratives and conspiracy theories, and other forms of mis- dis- and mal-information” to terrorists.

    The next part is the kicker.

    According to the Department of Homeland Security’s latest terrorism bulletin, “These threat actors seek to exacerbate societal friction to sow discord and undermine public trust in government institutions to encourage unrest, which could potentially inspire acts of violence.”

    You see, the government doesn’t care if what you’re sharing is fact or fiction or something in between. What it cares about is whether what you’re sharing has the potential to make people think for themselves and, in the process, question the government’s propaganda.

    Get ready for the next phase of the government’s war on thought crimes and truth-tellers.

    For years now, the government has used all of the weapons in its vast arsenal—surveillance, threat assessments, fusion centers, pre-crime programs, hate crime laws, militarized police, lockdowns, martial law, etc.—to target potential enemies of the state based on their ideologies, behaviors, affiliations and other characteristics that might be deemed suspicious or dangerous.

    For instance, if you believe in and exercise your rights under the Constitution (namely, your right to speak freely, worship freely, associate with like-minded individuals who share your political views, criticize the government, own a weapon, demand a warrant before being questioned or searched, or any other activity viewed as potentially anti-government, racist, bigoted, anarchic or sovereign), you could be at the top of the government’s terrorism watch list.

    Moreover, as a New York Times editorial warns, you may be an anti-government extremist (a.k.a. domestic terrorist) in the eyes of the police if you are afraid that the government is plotting to confiscate your firearms, if you believe the economy is about to collapse and the government will soon declare martial law, or if you display an unusual number of political and/or ideological bumper stickers on your car.

    According to one FBI latest report, you might also be classified as a domestic terrorism threat if you espouse conspiracy theories, especially if you “attempt to explain events or circumstances as the result of a group of actors working in secret to benefit themselves at the expense of others” and are “usually at odds with official or prevailing explanations of events.”

    In other words, if you dare to subscribe to any views that are contrary to the government’s, you may well be suspected of being a domestic terrorist and treated accordingly.

    This latest government salvo against consumers and spreaders of “mis- dis- and mal-information” widens the net to potentially include anyone who is exposed to ideas that run counter to the official government narrative.

    You don’t have to be a Joe Rogan questioning COVID-19 to get called out, cancelled and classified as an extremist.

    There’s a whole spectrum of behaviors ranging from thought crimes and hate speech to whistleblowing that qualifies for persecution (and prosecution) by the Deep State.

    Simply liking or sharing this article on Facebook, retweeting it on Twitter, or merely reading it or any other articles related to government wrongdoing, surveillance, police misconduct or civil liberties might be enough to get you categorized as a particular kind of person with particular kinds of interests that reflect a particular kind of mindset that might just lead you to engage in a particular kinds of activities and, therefore, puts you in the crosshairs of a government investigation as a potential troublemaker a.k.a. domestic extremist.

    Chances are, as the Washington Post reports, you have already been assigned a color-coded threat score—green, yellow or red—so police are forewarned about your potential inclination to be a troublemaker depending on whether you’ve had a career in the military, posted a comment perceived as threatening on Facebook, suffer from a particular medical condition, or know someone who knows someone who might have committed a crime.

    In other words, you might already be flagged as potentially anti-government in a government database somewhere—Main Core, for example—that identifies and tracks individuals who aren’t inclined to march in lockstep to the police state’s dictates.

    As The Intercept reported, the FBI, CIA, NSA and other government agencies have increasingly invested in corporate surveillance technologies that can mine constitutionally protected speech on social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and Instagram in order to identify potential extremists and predict who might engage in future acts of anti-government behavior.

    Where many Americans go wrong is in naively assuming that you have to be doing something illegal or harmful in order to be flagged and targeted for some form of intervention or detention.

    In fact, all you need to do these days to end up on a government watch list or be subjected to heightened scrutiny is use certain trigger words (like cloud, pork and pirates), surf the internet, communicate using a cell phone, limp or stutter, drive a car, stay at a hotel, attend a political rally, express yourself on social media, appear mentally ill, serve in the military, disagree with a law enforcement official, call in sick to work, purchase materials at a hardware store, take flying or boating lessons, appear suspicious, appear confused or nervous, fidget or whistle or smell bad, be seen in public waving a toy gun or anything remotely resembling a gun (such as a water nozzle or a remote control or a walking cane), stare at a police officer, question government authority, or appear to be pro-gun or pro-freedom.

    And then at the other end of the spectrum there are those such as Julian Assange, for example, who blow the whistle on government misconduct that is within the public’s right to know.

    Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks—a website that published secret information, news leaks, and classified media from anonymous sources—was arrested on April 11, 2019, on charges of helping U.S. Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning access and leak more than 700,000 classified military documents that portray the U.S. government and its military as reckless, irresponsible and responsible for thousands of civilian deaths.

    Included among the leaked Manning material were the Collateral Murder video (April 2010), the Afghanistan war logs (July 2010), the Iraq war logs (October 2010), a quarter of a million diplomatic cables (November 2010), and the Guantánamo files (April 2011).

    The Collateral Murder leak included gunsight video footage from two U.S. AH-64 Apache helicopters engaged in a series of air-to-ground attacks while air crew laughed at some of the casualties. Among the casualties were two Reuters correspondents who were gunned down after their cameras were mistaken for weapons and a driver who stopped to help one of the journalists. The driver’s two children, who happened to be in the van at the time it was fired upon by U.S. forces, suffered serious injuries.

    In true Orwellian fashion, the government would have us believe that it is Assange and Manning who are the real criminals for daring to expose the war machine’s seedy underbelly.

    Since his April 2019 arrest, Assange has been locked up in a maximum-security British prison—in solitary confinement for up to 23 hours a day—pending extradition to the U.S., where if convicted, he could be sentenced to 175 years in prison.

    This is how the police state deals with those who challenge its chokehold on power.

    This is why the government fears a citizenry that thinks for itself. Because a citizenry that thinks for itself is a citizenry that is informed, engaged and prepared to hold the government accountable to abiding by the rule of law, which translates to government transparency and accountability.

    After all, we’re citizens, not subjects. For those who don’t fully understand the distinction between the two and why transparency is so vital to a healthy constitutional government, Manning explains it well:

    When freedom of information and transparency are stifled, then bad decisions are often made and heartbreaking tragedies occur – too often on a breathtaking scale that can leave societies wondering: how did this happen? … I believe that when the public lacks even the most fundamental access to what its governments and militaries are doing in their names, then they cease to be involved in the act of citizenship. There is a bright distinction between citizens, who have rights and privileges protected by the state, and subjects, who are under the complete control and authority of the state.

    This is why the First Amendment is so critical. It gives the citizenry the right to speak freely, protest peacefully, expose government wrongdoing, and criticize the government without fear of arrest, isolation or any of the other punishments that have been meted out to whistleblowers such as Edwards Snowden, Assange and Manning.

    The challenge is holding the government accountable to obeying the law.

    A little over 50 years ago, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in United States v. Washington Post Co. to block the Nixon Administration’s attempts to use claims of national security to prevent The Washington Post and The New York Times from publishing secret Pentagon papers on how America went to war in Vietnam.

    As Justice William O. Douglas remarked on the ruling, “The press was protected so that it could bare the secrets of government and inform the people. Only a free and unrestrained press can effectively expose deception in government. And paramount among the responsibilities of a free press is the duty to prevent any part of the government from deceiving the people and sending them off to distant lands to die of foreign fevers and foreign shot and shell.”

    Fast forward to the present day, and we’re witnessing yet another showdown, this time between Assange and the Deep State, which pits the people’s right to know about government misconduct against the might of the military industrial complex.

    Yet this isn’t merely about whether whistleblowers and journalists are part of a protected class under the Constitution. It’s a debate over how long “we the people” will remain a protected class under the Constitution.

    Following the current trajectory, it won’t be long before anyone who believes in holding the government accountable is labeled an “extremist,” relegated to an underclass that doesn’t fit in, watched all the time, and rounded up when the government deems it necessary.

    We’re almost at that point now.

    Eventually, we will all be potential suspects, terrorists and lawbreakers in the eyes of the government.

    Partisan politics have no place in this debate: Americans of all stripes would do well to remember that those who question the motives of government provide a necessary counterpoint to those who would blindly follow where politicians choose to lead.

    We don’t have to agree with every criticism of the government, but we must defend the rights of all individuals to speak freely without fear of punishment or threat of banishment.

    Never forget: what the architects of the police state want are submissive, compliant, cooperative, obedient, meek citizens who don’t talk back, don’t challenge government authority, don’t speak out against government misconduct, and don’t step out of line.

    What the First Amendment protects—and a healthy constitutional republic requires—are citizens who routinely exercise their right to speak truth to power.

    The right to speak out against government wrongdoing is the quintessential freedom.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, once again, we find ourselves reliving George Orwell’s 1984, which portrayed in chilling detail how totalitarian governments employ the power of language to manipulate the masses.

    In Orwell’s dystopian vision of the future, Big Brother does away with all undesirable and unnecessary words and meanings, even going so far as to routinely rewrite history and punish “thoughtcrimes.”

    Much like today’s social media censors and pre-crime police departments, Orwell’s Thought Police serve as the eyes and ears of Big Brother, while the other government agencies peddle in economic affairs (rationing and starvation), law and order (torture and brainwashing), and news, entertainment, education and art (propaganda).

    Orwell’s Big Brother relies on Newspeak to eliminate undesirable words, strip such words as remained of unorthodox meanings and make independent, non-government-approved thought altogether unnecessary.

    Where we stand now is at the juncture of OldSpeak (where words have meanings, and ideas can be dangerous) and Newspeak (where only that which is “safe” and “accepted” by the majority is permitted). The power elite has made their intentions clear: they will pursue and prosecute any and all words, thoughts and expressions that challenge their authority.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 23:40

  • Chinese Fast Food Restaurants Rely On Robots To Fuel Expansion
    Chinese Fast Food Restaurants Rely On Robots To Fuel Expansion

    Last year was a record-breaking year for robots joining the American workforce. But in China, the advent of robotic workers was equally – if not more – intense.

    According to a report from Nikkei, Yum China’s network of KFC and Pizza Hut outlets has seen significant growth over the past year, even as the size of China’s workforce has remained steady.

    “We increased our stores, but without increasing the total number of staff,” said Joey Watt on a call with analysts and investors on Feb.9, highlighting Yum China’s investments in artificial intelligence and digital technologies to support operations and training.

    Most stores now feature touch screens where customers place orders, a feature that has become familiar to American consumers over the past decade. KFC robots make soft-serve ice cream cones for customers, while take-out orders can be picked up by customers from digital lockers without forcing them to have any contact with staff.

    As for human workers, Watt noted that the company now has about 420K full- and part-time staff, about the same number it had in 2016 when it was spun off by its American parent, Yum! Brands.

    Over the same period, the number of outlets increased by 56%, reaching 11,788 as of December following the addition of a net 1,282 outlets in 2021. Between 2016 and 2021, annual net profits nearly doubled to $990MM (though that number also included proceeds from a one-off gain).

    Source: FT

    But despite its growing use of robots, Yum’s labor costs have continued to climb, due in part to higher insurance-related costs.

    Despite the cap on staffing, Yum China’s labor costs have continued to rise, reaching $2.25 billion last year, up 31% from 2020. Payroll and benefits have also made up a growing proportion of total store operational expenses, hitting 29.2 per cent last year, up from 25.5 per cent in 2016. Part of this is due to higher insurance expenses. The company last year raised medical coverage for some store managers to Rmb1mn ($157,182) while extending critical illness and other coverage for 100,000 front-line staff and family members.

    The company expects to roll out more robots in restaurants it plans to open next year.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 23:20

  • How Much Will Biden's Ukraine Policy Cost Americans?
    How Much Will Biden’s Ukraine Policy Cost Americans?

    Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute, 

    The Ukraine crisis has provided the perfect opportunity for weapon makers to cash in. The collapse of the Afghan Army was a blow to the military-industrial complex that made billions during the two-decade nation-building project. Now, it appears the foreign policy establishment sees Ukraine as a potential Afghanistan replacement.

    The State Department has approved the transfer of five helicopters that belonged to the Afghan Army to Ukraine. The helicopters are just a small part of the billions in weapons the US and its allies have given to Kyiv. Additionally, Biden has sent thousands of soldiers to Eastern Europe on costly deployments.

    AP Image

    Like in Afghanistan, no one realistically expects success. The US believes that in any conflict with Russia the Ukrainian military will suffer heavy casualties and fold within days.

    In the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, arms may be just a small part of the price Americans will pay for Biden’s policy. NATO has promised sanctions that it says will devastate the Russian economy. However, Biden admitted yesterday that those sanctions would also plague the American energy sector.

    The Biden Administration has also utilized the renewed fear of ‘Russian Aggression’ to levy loyalty questions at journalists. Notably, State Department Spokesperson Ned Price accused AP journalist Matt Lee of pushing a pro-Russian narrative for asking the State Department to provide evidence for their claims that Moscow was planning a false flag.

    The intelligence community has made a similar charge against Zero Hedge, with the AP reporting yesterday, “U.S. intelligence officials on Tuesday accused a conservative financial news website with a significant American readership of amplifying Kremlin propaganda.”

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    The new White House effort for narrative control is eerily similar to George W. Bush dictating, “Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.”

    If rhetoric is any indication, the fear of a Russian invasion will cost Americans a lot more than just tax dollars.

    * * *

    But on that note, the Biden White House is weighing yet another $1 billion loan for Ukraine, and this despite admitting the country is still rife with corruption…

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 23:00

  • Russia: The Gold Standard In Olympic Doping
    Russia: The Gold Standard In Olympic Doping

    Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva has officially qualified for tomorrow’s free skate medal event amidst an ongoing doping controversy. Even though she tested positive for the banned drug trimetazidine in December, the Court of Arbitration for Sports (CAS) ruled that Valieva is still allowed to take part in further events. Meanwhile, the medal ceremony for the team skate competition, which saw Valieva and her fellow team members scoring gold, will be postponed until she’s cleared of any accusations.

    And, as Statista’s Florian Zandt details below, if Valieva were to be denied her team gold medal, Russia would have been stripped of its 52nd Olympic medal due to doping as Zandt shows in the chart below…

    Infographic: Russia: The Gold Standard in Olympic Doping | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to data from World Atlas, the Russian Federation holds the record for having to forfeit the most Olympic medals in history. The Russian Olympic Committee has long been suspected of systematically supplying their athletes with performance-enhancing drugs. Numerous investigations and reports resulted in a four-year ban on the participation of the country’s athletes in global sporting events put into effect by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) in 2019. One year later, the length of the ban was reduced to two years by the CAS, which enabled Russia to officially take part in this year’s Winter Olympic Games.

    Sharing second place are Ukraine and Belarus with 11 medals stripped, while Kazakhstan ranks third with nine medals. Overall, Eastern European and former Eastern Bloc nations make up the majority of the top 8 countries having to forfeit their Olympic medals.

    While these numbers, especially for Russia, seem high, positive doping tests at the Olympic games have actually gone down in the last couple of years. After a record of 91 and 132 positive tests in the Summer Games of 2008 and 2012, respectively, the 2020 Summer Olympics saw only nine athletes testing positive for potential performance-enhancing drugs according to data from ProCon.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 22:40

  • China Denounces US As "Bandits" For Seizing $7 Billion As Afghans Starve
    China Denounces US As “Bandits” For Seizing $7 Billion As Afghans Starve

    Authored by Kenny Stancil via Common Dreams, 

    Following the Biden administration’s unilateral decision last week to seize $7 billion worth of assets from Afghanistan amid a mounting humanitarian crisis that threatens to kill more civilians than two decades of war, foreign leaders and critics worldwide continue to express disgust, with China on Tuesday condemning the U.S. for dispossessing Afghans of their own money.

    “Without the consent of the Afghan people, the U.S. willfully disposes of assets that belong to the Afghan people, even keeping them as its own. This is no different from the conduct of bandits,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Tuesday during a press conference in Beijing.

    Image source: Javed Tanveer/AFP via Getty Images

    China’s response came after U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday signed an executive order to confiscate more than $7 billion that the Afghan Central Bank has on deposit in the Federal Reserve. Biden froze those funds last August when the Taliban regained control of Kabul as U.S. military and NATO forces withdrew, and now he plans to divide them between the families of victims of the September 11, 2001 attacks and humanitarian aid for Afghanistan.

    According to Wang, “This latest example has once again laid bare that the rules-based order the U.S. claims to champion is not the kind of rules and order to defend the weak and uphold justice, but to maintain its own hegemony.” He added that the U.S. “should unfreeze [Afghan] assets, lift unilateral sanctions on Afghanistan as soon as possible, and assume its due responsibility to ease the humanitarian crisis in the country.”

    Amid U.S. sanctions and worsening winter conditions, suffering in Afghanistan has reached catastrophic levels. According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), 97% of Afghans are projected to fall into poverty by the second half of 2022. Moreover, nearly 23 million Afghans—over half of the country’s population of roughly 40 million—are facing acute food insecurity, with one million children at risk of the most severe form of malnutrition.

    If the Biden administration refuses to change course, more Afghans could starve to death in the coming months than were killed during two decades of U.S.-led war, prompting critics to describe the White House’s decision to snatch the war-torn and poverty-stricken country’s assets as “tantamount to mass murder” and reflective of a brutal willingness to facilitate “mass civilian death.” In a Tuesday interview with France24, former Afghan President Hamid Karzai urged Biden to reverse his decision to allocate $3.5 billion to families of victims of the 9/11 attacks, stressing that all $7 billion belongs to Afghanistan and that it is “wrong” for the U.S. to expropriate another country’s money for its own purposes.

    “The people of Afghanistan share the pain of the American people, share the pain of the families and loved ones of those who died, who lost their lives in the tragedy of September 11,” Karzai said earlier this week. “We commiserate with them [but] Afghan people are as much victims as those families who lost their lives. Withholding money or seizing money from the people of Afghanistan in their name is unjust and unfair and an atrocity against Afghan people,” he added, asking U.S. courts to return the funds.

    Phyllis Rodriguez, the mother of a victim of the 9/11 attacks, denounced Biden’s “outrageous” move to take billions of dollars from Kabul to compensate Americans while millions of Afghans are on the brink of starvation due to economic sanctions the U.S. imposed at the conclusion of its 20-year war.

    “The suffering of the Afghan people at the hands of the United States and its allies is reprehensible,” she said. “This is adding insult to injury.”

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    In an opinion piece published earlier this week, Bloomberg columnist Ruth Pollard wrote that in the wake of Biden’s executive order, “many in Afghanistan and its diaspora pointed out the obvious: This appears to be a backwards attempt to punish Afghanistan for its role in the 2001 attacks on the U.S.“

    “If so,” wrote Pollard, “the aim was off-target. Of the origins of the 9/11 hijackers, 15 came from Saudi Arabia, two from the United Arab Emirates and one each from Lebanon and Egypt. Not one was Afghan. The Taliban, who ruled most of the country, had provided refuge to Osama bin Laden; but, given the median age of Afghans today is 18, those attacks took place before many were even born.” As for the $3.5 billion that the White House has proposed using for humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan, peace activist Medea Benjamin, co-founder of CodePink, urged global aid groups to reject those funds and called on “other countries and institutions not to cooperate in the implementation of [Biden’s] unjust order.”

    Experts have noted that the sovereign wealth captured by Biden undergirds Afghanistan’s currency and is not meant for aid. According to Pollard:

    While the United Nations and other humanitarian groups work to convince the U.S. and the World Bank to ease what amounts to an economic blockade on Afghanistan, Biden’s actions are blatantly counterproductive.

    …U.N. chief Antonio Guterres in January called on the World Bank to immediately release $1.2 billion in reconstruction funds to ease the humanitarian crisis and inject liquidity to prevent an economic collapse. It had already transferred $280 million to the U.N. Children’s Fund and the World Food Programme a month earlier.

    As IRC president David Miliband told the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Counterterrorism during a hearing last week, “The proximate cause of this starvation crisis is the international economic policy, which has been adopted since August and which has cut off financial flows not just to the public sector, but in the private sector in Afghanistan as well.”

    “Bank branches lack cash, and sanctions, which are meant to be on the Taliban, end up freezing private sector activity,” said Miliband. “Aid cannot make up for an economy deprived of oxygen.” Graeme Smith of the International Crisis Group concurred, saying during the hearing that “you can send bags of food, but more than that, you need to address the reason why people are hungry, which is the collapse of the economy mostly due to Western economic restrictions.”

    Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research and long-time critic of sanctions, said this week in a statement that “a country without central bank reserves is on a road to economic collapse. By confiscating these reserves, the U.S. government is guaranteeing this collapse, and the resulting widespread death and mass migration.”

    “This is fatally wrong and immoral, and it cannot continue,” said Weisbrot. “The only question is how many people will die before the U.S. government changes its policy.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 22:20

  • New York AG Issues "Consumer Alert" On Apple AirTag Tracking
    New York AG Issues “Consumer Alert” On Apple AirTag Tracking

    There have been several instances of bad actors using Apple AirTags to track people and or luxury sportscars. The latest was Sports Illustrated model Brooks Nader, 26, who went viral after telling her story of an AirTag incident on social media of a stalker who slipped the device into her coat jacket while at a bar in New York City in early January. She said the stalker tracked her for hours, adding if it wasn’t for her iPhone’s notification that read an “unknown accessory detected,” she would’ve never known. About a month and a half since the story went viral, it appears the government has issued a consumer alert on the tracking threat. 

    New York Attorney General Letitia James issued a consumer alert on Wednesday about “bad actors using Apple AirTags to track individuals’ locations and their belongings for harmful purposes.” 

    “Individuals have reported finding unknown AirTags attached to their cars, and in their purses, coat pockets, and other personal property. Others have reportedly received alerts on their phones that their location information is being shared, even when the targets do not find an AirTag or another connected accessory,” the release said. 

    James said, “AirTags are being misused to track people and their belongings to cause harm.” She said criminals who use these devices to track people and their belongings without consent “is a serious felony and will not be tolerated by my office.” 

    She requested all New Yorkers be on alert for these tracking devices as criminals could target them. 

    Besides the Sports Illustrated model, a report from Canada in early December noted car thieves placed AirTags in out-of-sight areas on luxury vehicles, tracked them, and eventually stole them. 

    Apple recently responded to the incidents of criminals using AirTags for nefarious purposes and said: 

    “We also have seen reports of bad actors attempting to misuse AirTag for malicious or criminal purposes.” 

    Apple said they’ve been working closely with law enforcement agencies to resolve the matter. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 22:00

  • Charlie Munger Says Fiat Currency Going To Zero "Over 100 Years"
    Charlie Munger Says Fiat Currency Going To Zero “Over 100 Years”

    With weeks to go until the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Warren Buffett’s No. 2 man Charlie Munger held his ‘Daily Journal Annual Meeting’ this afternoon with the range of topics as varied as one could possibly imagine.

    The meeting gave people the opportunity to pick Munger’s admittedly aging brain about everything and anything.

    The big headline-makers were Munger’s dystopian view of the future of fiat currency, his usual – and escalating – hatred of crypto, and his seeming adoration of China.

    On the inflationary endgame:

    Munger says “inflation is a very serious subject. You can argue that it’s the way democracies die… If you overdo it, you can ruin your civilization, so it’s a long-range danger.”

    “The safe assumption for investors is that over the next 100 years, the [fiat] currency is going to zero… that’s my working hypothesis.”

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    On Crypto

    “I’m proud of the fact I’ve avoided it,” he said, referring to cryptocurrencies. “It’s like some venereal disease … I just regard it as beneath contempt.”

    Cryptocurrencies are popular because they can be used for kidnapping, extortion and tax evasion, Munger said. He expressed support for China’s move to outlaw private digital currencies.

    “China is taking a very mature stance on cryptocurrencies,” Munger said. He said that he wants to “make money by selling people something that will help them get ahead in life, not selling things that are bad for them. People who invest in cryptocurrencies think only about themselves. Don’t think about the customers. I don’t want any of them to marry any of my relatives.”

    Munger rejected the idea that he “missed out on something” by not investing in cryptocurrencies.

    On central bank digital currencies.

    The Fed “can have a currency if they want one,” Munger said. “We’ve got a digital currency already, it’s called a bank account.”

    On investing in China

    Munger said that “China is a big modern nation. It’s got this huge population and this huge modernity that’s come in the last 30 years, and we invested some money in China because we could get more value in terms of the strength of the enterprise and the price of the security than we could get in the United States.”

    On political pressure in China

    China and the U.S. have been “massively stupid” to allow the existing tensions to arise, he says.

    “Nothing is crazier than people that foment resentments on either side of that one.”

    As a reminder, here he is last year praising the ‘offing’ of Jack Ma…“The Chinese communists did the right thing they just called him up and said ‘you aren’t going to do it, sonny'”.

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    On market excesses

    “Certainly the great short squeeze in GameStop was wretched excess, certainly the Bitcoin thing is wretched excess,” Munger said. “I would argue that venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there’s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity.”

    He added that the stock market doesn’t need to be as liquid as it is.

    “It’s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party,” Munger said, adding that it’s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party and everyone is having so much fun that they don’t think about the consequences. You can argue the wretched excess of the ‘20s gave us the Great Depression and the Great Depression gave us Hitler, the 92-year-old mumbled, so “it’s serious stuff.”

    Munger says they’d just need to find a way that makes the stock market less liquid.

    He says if he were the dictator of the world he would have some kind of a tax on short-term gains that make the stock market less liquid and drive out this marriage of gambling parlor and legitimate capital development of the country.

    “It’s not a good marriage and I think we need a divorce,” he says.

    On passive investing

    Munger said, “we have a new bunch of emperors.”

    He said there’s been an enormous amount of transfer of voting power to passive firms and that’s going to change the world.

    “I don’t know what the consequences are going to be, but I predict it will not be good,” he said. “I think the world of Larry Fink; I’m not sure I want him to be my emperor.”

    On the inflationary environment being like the ’70s

    “I certainly hope we’re not going there again,” Munger said of the Volcker rate hikes and ensuing recession.

    “I would not predict that our modern politicians will be as willing to permit a new Volcker to get that tough with the economy and bring on that kind of a recession.”

    He added that “you may wish you had a Volcker-style recession. I don’t know what you’re going to get.”

    On The Fed’s policies

    We do know that we’re flirting with serious trouble, Munger says

    Munger says he thinks that Larry Summers is quite possibly right that we overshot a little with some of the stimulus.

    On fiscal policy and handouts

    Munger says that the only effective economies that we’ve had that brought us modernity have imposed a lot of hardship on young people who didn’t want to work.

    If you take away all the hardship and say you can stay home and get more than if you come to work, it’s quite disruptive to an economic system like ours, he says.

    So next time, he says we shouldn’t be so liberal about the stimulus.

    On the US deficit:

    “You’re flirting with danger somewhere unless there’s some discipline in the process,” Munger said.

    Japan has done a bunch of this and gotten by, but he doesn’t think the U.S. will be as good at handling its problems, he said.

    On global warming

    Munger says that he’ll be surprised if it’s as bad as people think it’ll be.

    What worries Munger most about the economy and stock market, and what makes him most optimistic?

    It’s amazing how much achievement there’s been in civilization in the last 200 years, but the trouble with that is the basic needs are pretty well-filled, he said.

    “The world is not driven by greed, it’s driven by envy,” he said, adding that he (a billionaire) has conquered envy in his own life.

    *  *  *

    So to summarize:

    • Fiat’s going to zero, but don’t buy bitcoin to hedge “the ruin of civilization.”

    • The current market excess is a problem… and led to Hitler in the past.

    • Paying people not to work is a disaster for economic productivity and running big deficits is “flirting with danger.”

    • US and China should stop rattling sabers.

    • Global warming fearmongering is overblown.

    But apart from that, everything for the 92-year-old is awesome!

    *  *  *

    Watch the full interview below:

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 21:40

  • Senator Urges FTC To Monitor Threats To Children In Metaverse
    Senator Urges FTC To Monitor Threats To Children In Metaverse

    A group of lawmakers on Capitol Hill sent a letter to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) urging the agency responsible for consumer protection to monitor the metaverse for threats against children. 

    Senator Edward Markey (D-Mass.) and Representatives Kathy Castor (FL-14) and Lori Trahan (MA-03) asked the FTC to use its full authority under the Children’s Online Privacy and Protection Act and Section 5 of the FTC Act to ensure children are protected in the new online universe. 

    “Children’s increasing use of VR warrants serious concerns about new threats to young users’ wellbeing. Many VR platforms and headsets currently do not have basic parental controls, and reports point to harms such as harassment and unsafe content in the metaverse,” the lawmakers wrote. 

    The letter comes as millions of parents bought their children Meta’s (formerly known as Facebook) Oculus Quest 2 goggles for Christmas. We previously noted the dark side of the metaverse and documented instances of possible child grooming within one of the virtual reality headset’s most popular chatroom services VRChat.

    A clip shared by YouTuber “The Dark Maze“ uncovered several instances of a serious problem in VRChat: child exploitation and sexualization. The Dark Maze said VRChat is “not a place for children.”

    Following our reporting last month, Oculus recently released a statement indicating the addition of a “personal boundary” (think of a personal bubble) that will protect users from being virtually assaulted by others.

    We ask the question: “Why didn’t Oculus enforce these boundaries from the beginning?” 

    The Dark Maze, a metaverse developer who has spent thousands of hours in the virtual world, also documented instances of “adults in the metaverse fantasizing sex with toddlers.” The developer said:

    “ZeroHedge was the first major news publication to document our story of a VR Developer’s experience in the metaverse and expose the dark side of it. Corporate media has stayed silent on the horrible accounts of child grooming in and VRChat, perhaps because their corporate sponsors are plowing billions of dollars into metaverse investments.”

    The developer could be right about corporate media failing to report child threats in the metaverse because, as Goldman Sachs equity strategist Eric Sheridan explains, mega-corporations are plowing sizeable investments into Web 3.0 (a fully decentralized online ecosystem that includes the potential for a metaverse, an immersive world that acts in parallel to the physical world). He believes the metaverse will present a total addressable market of about $2.6 trillion (most bearish case) to $12.5 trillion (most bullish case) within the next 10-15 years. If mega-corporations need people to join the metaverse – there can’t be bad press about it. 

    It was only after our reporting last month that more people are becoming serious about protecting children in this new digital world.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 21:20

  • US Trending Toward China's Social Credit System, Enabled By Big Tech: Former Facebook Analyst
    US Trending Toward China’s Social Credit System, Enabled By Big Tech: Former Facebook Analyst

    By Mimi Nguyen Ly and Jan Jekielek of The Epoch Times

    Big tech companies are doing the bidding of the U.S. government in actions that mirror China’s social credit system, and Americans must recognize what’s happening and take action, according to Kara Frederick, a former Facebook intel analyst and a research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation.

    Kara Frederick, a Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Technology Policy, in Washington on Feb. 11, 2022

    Frederick recently authored a Heritage Foundation report titled, “Combating Big Tech’s Totalitarianism: A Road Map,” which details how Big Tech has wielded its power to censor Americans. The report proposes a range of actions Americans can take to counter the situation.

    “It’s that integration of the government and big tech companies to police speech that I think is troubling and very evocative of the coming totalitarianism,” Frederick said on EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders” program. She calls it a “symbiosis between the government and tech companies.”

    She cited a few examples, including in earlier February, when White House press secretary Jen Psaki, at a press conference, urged Spotify and other major tech platforms to take further action to stamp out what the Biden administration deemed as “COVID-19 misinformation.”

    It’s not the first time Psaki told big tech companies what to do, Frederick noted. In July 2021, Psaki and Surgeon General Vivek Murthy at a press conference urged social media companies to combat what the Biden administration called “health misinformation.” At the time, Psaki singled out 12 people whom she said were “producing 65 percent of anti-vaccine misinformation on social media platforms.”

    “All of [the 12 people] remain active on Facebook, despite some even being banned on other platforms, including Facebook—ones that Facebook owns,” Psaki said at the time. A day later, Psaki said, “You shouldn’t be banned from one platform and not others … for providing misinformation out there.”

    Frederick noted that within a month, all of the users and accounts were booted off the Facebook platform.

    In January, President Joe Biden said he was making a “special appeal” to social media companies and media to “deal with misinformation and disinformation,” and in early February, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas had issued a terrorism advisory not just against so-called misinformation about COVID-19, but also in the context of election integrity and election security, Frederick also noted.

    “This is becoming pervasive and big tech companies are the willing agents for the government to have really a heavy hand on the American people,” Frederick said.

    “So absolutely, this is a coming totalitarianism, these practices are, frankly, mirroring that of what China does in the social credit system,” she continued. “You have to remember that [it] started with private companies as well and specific provinces in the financial sector.

    “So I think it’s extremely important for Americans to get their guards up and recognize what’s happening as it’s happening today.”

    Quashing Dissenting Views

    In the interview, Frederick explores how tech companies have repurposed certain tools that were originally meant to be used to combat national security threats, to now quash dissenting viewpoints, or anything the U.S. government calls “misinformation,” “disinformation,” and “mal-information.”

    “I believe that there are genuine problems on these platforms, right? Human trafficking, advertisements for drug cartels … child sexual abuse, material, child exploitation and pornography, and real foreign Islamic terrorist content. Those are real issues, not to mention state-linked influence operations, where you have bots that are farmed out to patriotic citizens by the CCP, the Chinese Communist Party, to spew bile all over the internet or cheerlead for the CCP. … So it’s very important that we do have people within these companies working on that.”

    Frederick previously helped create and lead Facebook’s Global Security Counterterrorism Analysis Program. In the beginning of her career, she had spent six years as a counterterrorism analyst at the Department of Defense.

    She observed that on the social media platforms, there appears to be a “very troubling trend” whereby more resources are being allocated toward regulating right-leaning content and dissenting content.

    “We have failed to agree on a definition of misinformation and disinformation, and what actual, organic sort of influence operations are, versus state-linked influence operations from nefarious actors,” she said. “Right now, disinformation—it seems to be a catch-all for views that the left doesn’t like that the Biden regime doesn’t like.

    “No more demonstrative examples exist other than the Hunter Biden laptop story [and] the lab leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology—these two things were considered misinformation at the time and you would be censored, suspended or banned from Facebook and Twitter and other social media.”

    What’s furthermore troubling is an apparent effort to link disinformation with terrorism, such as with the recent Department of Homeland Security (DHS) advisory or the Justice Department’s establishment of a new unit to combat domestic terrorism, Frederick said.

    “These institutions have definitions for a reason,” she said. “They call things terrorism for a reason. Because you can, once you label something terrorism, you can then mobilize the robustness of the entire U.S. national security apparatus developed in the wake of the September 11 attacks.

    “And you can mobilize them against anyone that you’re accusing of terrorism. And when you link disinformation, mal-information, [and] misinformation with terrorism, that gives them license to do a variety of things under a variety of specialized authorities and visit them against the purveyor of this disinformation or misinformation.”

    Frederick advises Americans to explore platforms created by new entrants. “I won’t name them specifically. But I think we’re starting to see these competitors come up as they recognize the challenge as they try to take on [the] monopolistic practices of these big tech companies,” she said.

    “Make sure that your privacy is first and foremost as well—so using companies that are actually devoted to privacy,” she added.

    The wanton censorship is not limited to social media companies, Frederick said.

    “it’s important for people to understand that it’s not just social media companies or your right to be on Twitter, your right to be on Facebook,” she said. “It’s everything: email delivery services, online fundraising platforms, your ability to get a creative project going, the regular person’s ability to have a business on Instagram, your ability to sell merchandise that you create on Shopify, your ability to bank online.”

    “We know that 17 digital platforms mobilized within two weeks in early January to suspend or ban President Trump from their platforms. It can happen to the everyday user as well,” she said. “So I think it’s critical that we realize it’s not just social media companies, but it’s every aspect of your digital life, which is life into perpetuity.”

    Deny CCP Links, Recover Sense of Duty to America

    Americans, including members of Congress, need to understand that big tech companies are infringing on Americans’ constitutional rights, such as freedom of speech, “especially when [Big Tech is] working with the government.”

    “Instead of saying ‘they’re private companies, they can do whatever they want,’ recognize that that’s a problem,” she said.

    Also, big tech platforms need to truly embrace American values again and recover a sense of duty to the country, and U.S. lawmakers can kickstart the process by “being brave, calling out [Big Tech], recognizing that this is a problem and taking measures to rectify it,” she said.

    Frederick said she was “struck” by how big tech platforms such as Facebook showed a “lack of both gratitude and cognition” of how they thrived and flourished under an American system.

    “Because of America, [these big tech platforms] were able to amass all of this largess, and innovate and build all these really interesting things for the people of the world,” she noted. “I recognize that they’re global companies, but when it comes to the reason why they’ve been so successful, it’s because of America and our unique system. I think companies need to recover a sense of being American again. … Recovering that sense of a duty to America, and a gratitude for what it’s been able to do and create for these executives and the people who work under them.”

    She said that Big Tech’s ties to the CCP pose a major hurdle to this effort, and believes Congress needs to pull the companies in line.

    “You hear an argument these days that big tech companies are, ‘the bulwark against Chinese aggression, they’re gonna help us win the race against China,’—not if [Amazon founder] Jeff Bezos is working with a CCP propaganda arm, not if [Apple CEO] Tim Cook is paying China with $275 billion to contribute to their development; not if Zoom is acquiescing to the directives from the CCP to get a human rights activist off of one of their calls. The list goes on and on and on.”

    Frederick said Congress needs to “be brave and say absolutely not” to stop companies from working against American interests.

    “Companies need to recover what it means to be American companies again,” Frederick continued. “Congress can help them do it. Civil society can help them do it. State legislators and attorney generals can help them do it. … We all have responsibilities here, but it really starts in here with all of us.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 21:00

  • NatGas Futures Jump As East Coast Set To Freeze
    NatGas Futures Jump As East Coast Set To Freeze

    U.S. natural gas futures have been on a rollercoaster over the last six months, from gas shortages in Europe to cold weather in the U.S. to the latest geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. Futures for March are up for the third day as commodity traders assess new weather models forecasting colder temperatures on the East Coast will increase heating demand. 

    Futures for March delivery are up nearly 8% to $4.64/MMBtu on Nymex. A blend of geopolitical tensions and the prospect for cold weather on the East Coast has sent March contracts up over 20% since last Friday. 

    The latest warmth on the East Coast will dissipate by the weekend as average temperatures from Washington, D.C., to New York City will dive below a 30-year trend line. Average temperatures are expected to rebound next week but begin another plunge next Wednesday into March. 

    Washington, D.C.’s average temperatures will dive this weekend then rebound next week to only dive once more. 

    The same trend is in play for New York City. 

    For the Lower 48 as a whole, colder temperatures appear to be ahead through the first week of March. 

    There’s also a winter storm developing that could track across central and eastern U.S. later today into Thursday. 

    “This looks to be a rather dynamic storm with the potential for major impacts of several kinds, including heavy snow, significant ice accretion, flooding, severe weather and even a rather broad zone of strong winds,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton, adding that the eastern half of the country will be in play for at least one of these threats.

    Besides weather models, the U.S. has relied on a Punxsutawney Phil, Pennsylvania’s most famous groundhog, for a guestimate on the seasonal shift from cold to warm. On Feb. 2, the giant rodent made his annual weather prediction as he saw his “shadow,” which means six more weeks of winter. 

    America might be the only country that relies on a rodent for weather predictions.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 20:40

  • The New Anti-Economics
    The New Anti-Economics

    Authored by Heff Deist via The Mises Institute,

    Economics is about human action and choice within the context of scarcity. The problem facing economists is how to understand and explain human betterment, which is another way of saying production. The critical question, posed correctly by economist Per Bylund, starts with scarcity as the default point for understanding purposive human behavior.

    Antieconomics, by contrast, starts with abundance and works backward. It emphasizes redistribution, not production, as its central focus. At the heart of any antieconomics is a positivist worldview, the assumption that individuals and economies can be commanded by legislative fiat. Markets, which happen without centralized organization, give way to planning in the same way common law gives way to statutory law. This view is especially prevalent among left intellectuals, who view economics not as a science at all, but rather a pseudointellectual exercise to justify capital and wealthy business interests.

    Antieconomics is not new; even alchemy might be considered a medieval version of the endless quest to achieve something for nothing. It holds enduring appeal in modern politics and academia, where communism, chartalism, Keynesianism, and monetarism all represent twentieth-century variations on the central theme of commanding economic activity.

    But today’s most visible version of antieconomics takes the form of modern monetary theory. MMT featured heavily in a recent flattering profile of Professor Stephanie Kelton in the New York Times titled “Is This What Winning Looks Like?” “Winning” in this context refers to MMT’s growing popular appeal, with Kelton as the public face following her 2020 book The Deficit Myth.

    Kelton’s MMT is a political and fiscal program, not a macroeconomic theory. It argues deficits don’t matter because money issued by a sovereign government is never constrained (unlike resources, as Kelton admits). Thus governments don’t “pay” for things the way individuals or businesses do, and furthermore, public debt is actually a private benefit to someone. The problem is not paying for government programs, but rather identifying them—robust public works, job guarantees, universal basic income, food and housing, Green New Deal programs, Medicare for All, etc.—and, more importantly, creating the public will to support them politically.

    In Kelton’s words, MMT “teaches us to ask not ‘How will you pay for it?’ but ‘How will you resource it?’ It shows us that if we have the technological know-how and the available resources—to put a man on the moon or embark on a Green New Deal to tackle climate change, then funding to carry out those missions can always be made available. Coming up with the money is the easy part.” The Deficit Myth, in sum, is what one commenter called “a plea to use permanent wartime mobilization for civilian ends.” Endless stimulation, not better and cheaper production, is the goal of fiscal (or monetary) policy.

    This is antieconomics in its fullest expression. Resources exist (from whence?); are commanded by or at least available to the state, if not outright owned by the state (taxes? seizure? forfeiture?); and then are put in service of an undefined political mandate (what “we” want). Funding is an afterthought, as the fiscal authority creates money as needed. But in fairness to Kelton, the US federal government in 2020 spent roughly $6.5 trillion, twice what it raised in taxes ($3.4 trillion). In a very narrow sense, MMT “works” in the short term for the benefit of politically favored groups. This is the seen. But proper economics, as Henry Hazlitt and Frédéric Bastiat explained, requires looking at the long-term effects of a policy on everyone. This is the unseen. For MMTers, the vast opportunity costs of government spending, even when the economy is nowhere near “full employment,” go unseen.

    Perversely, media critics defended criticisms of Kelton’s Times feature on the grounds of sexism. She is lauded, not surprisingly, as a rare standout in the male-dominated field of academic economics. The attacks on her work, we are told, come from older jealous white men (e.g., former Treasury secretary Larry Summers) who don’t appreciate the “new” economics she proposes and who envy the attention she has brought not only to herself and MMT, but to the broader push for egalitarian economic justice. Kelton, after all, served as an economic advisor to democratic socialist presidential candidate Bernie Sanders and supported Elizabeth Warren. Old neoliberals like Summers, by contrast, still support the outdated idea of fiscal constraints.

    But beyond the absurd allegations of sexism—surely Kelton knows how merciless Twitter and other platforms are to everyone—is the more alarming suggestion that the practice of economics is too male and needs a female version. Economics is too adversarial, too concerned with being right, and in need of a more collaborative (read: female) approach. The implications of this for all social sciences, not just economics, are staggering: we would upend the search for knowledge to reflect a different logic between men and women—what Mises called “polylogism.” Would this not require an entirely new epistemology across all scientific disciplines?

    None of these diversions will allow us to escape reality. Economics starts and ends with scarcity, an inescapable feature of human reality. Any conception of freedom from material and human constraints requires a posteconomics world, either an earthly utopia or a heavenly abundance. In our world, however rich relative to the past, scarcity is the starting point of economic analysis. In our world, individual human actors make “rational” choices only within the context of constraints: time, capital, intelligence, ability, health, and location. And every choice has an opportunity cost. 

    Professional economics is in big trouble, and only an aggressive new generation of Austrian-trained praxeologists can undo the damage done by the prescriptive and political antieconomists. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 20:20

  • Rabobank Warns Coffee Prices May 'Soar Out Of Control' As Stockpiles Plunge
    Rabobank Warns Coffee Prices May ‘Soar Out Of Control’ As Stockpiles Plunge

    Goldman’s head commodity strategist and one of the closest-followed analysts on Wall Street told the audience of Bloomberg TV last Monday of commodity markets pricing in shortages. 

    “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie told Bloomberg in an interview. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

    This leaves us with one particular commodity that most Americans use daily, and it’s not crude products, such as gas and diesel, but, in fact, coffee. Over 150 million daily drinkers might be subjected to prices that may ‘soar out of control,’ according to a new report from analysts at Rabobank, led by Carlos Mera. 

    In agricultural markets, supply disruptions and lower exports from Central and South American producers have resulted in dwindling stockpiles of arabica beans on the ICE futures exchange. We noted not too long ago that ICE futures exchange hit their lowest level of storage of the bean in two decades. Coffee buyers are panic hoarding as some have switched from arabica to lower-grade robusta.

    Mera warned ICE-monitored inventory could plunge to “half a million bags in three months,” and the “fast pace of decertification could lead to uncontrolled prices spikes in the short-term.” 

    None of this should be surprising for ZeroHedge readers who have been well informed about the coffee troubles developing over the last year. We noted a nightmare of factors, including drought and frost, that have dramatically reduced output potential. There’s also been logistical issues and soaring transportation costs.

    Here are a few of our notes on the situation: 

    Arabica prices on the ICE futures exchanges hit a decade high of $2.59 a pound, and if Mera is correct, prices could be headed much higher. 

    Supply crunches are showing up on a seasonal basis. Prices have never been higher for this time of year except for 2011. 

    For the 150 million Americans who are addicted to coffee, read our commodity note from six months ago, “A ‘Cup Of Joe’ Is About To Get A Whole Lot More Expensive,” it was only a matter of time before prices would hyperinflate away. 

    Rounding back to Goldman’s Currie, everything is becoming a lot more expensive as the Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index powers to new all-time highs. And no wonder President Biden gave certain members of the Federal Reserve the go-ahead to release hawktard statements in the attempt to cool inflation because it’s ripping apart households and damaging the president’s polling numbers. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 20:00

  • There Was No Exit Plan From "Slow The Spread"
    There Was No Exit Plan From “Slow The Spread”

    Authored by Robert Blumen via The Brownstone Institute,

    Last year, cartoons began to appear depicting an endless cycle of variants and government responses.

    They call to mind the definition of insanity (misattributed to Einstein) as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Or perhaps the less well known line from a 1990s Stephen King miniseries “Hell is repetition.” 

    The direction of public health policy over the past two years has been difficult to understand. It may be a fool’s errand to use logic and reason for something that by design makes no sense. But coming at it as I do with no prior education in medicine or epidemiology, crude tools such as logic and common sense may still be useful: The basic principles of reality are true for all endeavors. For a plan to work, it must work within a finite time; for every on ramp, there must be an exit. 

    We started out with “Two weeks to flatten the curve.” If nothing else can be said in favor of this plan, credit must be given for how well it was explained. Pictures like this were clear enough.  With my university-level education in math and physics, I understood that the area under the curve was expected to remain equal under both alternatives: the one with and the other without “precautions” (as the label in the diagram euphemistically refers to life under communism). The peak of the curve would be lower, at the cost of the epidemic being extended in duration. 

    While the plan might or might not work, it is possible to state the premise without contradicting laws of logic or common sense. The flattening plan does accept that nearly everyone will eventually be exposed and the contagion will exhaust itself. If the plan enables some people to delay their exposure, up to a point, that could buy doctors some time to better learn how to treat them. Or perhaps a miraculous vaccine will be introduced that would create sterilizing immunity and halt the outbreak in its tracks enabling those who had delayed to avoid infection entirely. 

    And doctors did learn how to treat the disease, but treatment is actively fought by the medical establishment. The FDA – the drug regulator in the US – tweeted you should only get treated for covid if you are a horse.  Even today, you can get banned from social media for suggesting that it is possible to treat the disease. So any possible advantage in developing a treatment was wasted. 

    While the plan was clear, it was not guaranteed to work. Subtle effects could undermine the simple story told by the picture. Perhaps everyone staying at home will not help because people will get infected at home. Or perhaps too many people must leave home because essential critical infrastructure workers such as marijuana dispensaries must remain open to keep society running. 

    Some suggested then a policy that postpones population immunity would give the virus more time to mutate. Given enough time, people who were infected and have developed natural immunity to an earlier variant would face a virus sufficiently different that they might become infected again. Along these lines, biotech executive Vivek Ramaswamy and medical professor Dr Apoorva Ramaswamy MD, writing in the Wall Street Journal, question whether we should even try to slow the spread when “Speeding It May Be Safer.”  Cognitive scientist Mark Changzi suggests “slowing the spread among the healthy not-at-risk, which just raises the frail’s chances of getting infected.” “Dr. Robert Malone and Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche, who have been asserting that you can’t vaccinate your way out of a pandemic for months” believe that vaccination during an outbreak accelerates the evolution of the virus away from the version targeted by the vaccine. 

    Quite likely the “precautions” did nothing to make the curve flatter. With the benefit of hindsight we can observe that outbreaks of the virus in proximate US states (or neighboring nations that are similar in size and demographics in other regions of the world) rise and fall side by side in cyclical surges, regardless of when or if efforts to slow the spread were made. There is no impact on the variability of any public health metric based on when a “precaution” was undertaken.  

    After the hospitalizations peaked and then declined to near zero in the spring of 2020, I naively expected that we had done what we could, and it was over. Whether we had flattened the curve, or, the virus did what it would have done anyway, was at that point irrelevant. Instead of ending the precautions, there was an unstated shift from the original strategy to a new one. Unlike the original, the new policy was not clearly explained. I suspect the reason is that it could not have been explained without it becoming obvious that it did not make any sense. 

    “Flatten the curve” assumes contagions come to an end – either through immunity or viruses burn themselves out for reasons we do not fully understand. All things come to an end. Even the plague of the Black Death ran out of gas before it wiped out the entire human race. If an outbreak ends when most of us have been exposed (and either died or developed immunity), how can slowing it down be said to save lives? Is it not the best we can hope for that some people are exposed and suffer the consequences later rather than sooner?    

    Evidence of the new reality appeared to me one day when I was stuck in a traffic jam, on a trip I (and many of my neighbors) made in violation of my locality’s “shelter in place” order. As I puzzled over this new reality, I noticed overhead digital signage (paid for by my governor’s massive ad spend on Covid propaganda), stating: “Stay at home: save lives.” This was the initial wave of a propaganda tsunami imploring us to “slow the spread.” 

    A story about a superspreader who went to a party and infected multiple people who subsequently died attributed the deaths to the careless person who probably did not wear a mask. Was there some alternate version of reality in which the dead partygoers lived out the rest of their natural life never being exposed to a virus to which they were vulnerable? Should the superspreader be held responsible for their exposure, or was it only a matter of time until the virus found them, one way or another? 

    Sanctimonious lockdowners heaped scorn and ridicule on countries that did not slow the spread. A small industry of curve-fitting explanations were offered to explain the “success stories:” they locked down, they wore face masks, they tested, they quarantined, they contact-traced, they social distanced. They did as they were told. They obeyed authority. And we should do likewise. 

    According to Dr. Anthony Fauci MD, it was the time for us ornery Americans to do as we were told. In retrospect every one of the virtuous nations had its own spike or two, or three, often after getting fully vaccinated, taking a victory lap, and dislocating both of their shoulders by patting themselves on the back overly vigorously. 

    Consider testing. Some virtuous nations tested. Based on the long lines of cars to get into the popup centers, the United States tested a lot too. When former president Donald Trump suggested that – perhaps – we were overtesting, he was subjected to enormous ridicule. Yet how could testing help slow the spread of a virus? By itself testing does nothing other than identify sick people. 

    Can a test do a better job at identifying sick people than they can do on their own simply by noticing whether they have symptoms? If testing once a week does not help, does testing twice a week? And if so, then why do we care about a test result, if asymptomatic people are not contagious? In reality testing produced too many false positives to be useful. 

    Testing could in theory help if combined with contact tracing and quarantines to isolate the infected people. Contact tracing was another ritual of the success stories – yet contact tracing could not possibly work if someone could be infected by coming within six feet of a sick person or walking down the same side of the street because the second-order contacts of contacts would rapidly explode to include everyone in an entire city or region. This was another instance of Yogi Berra’s observation that “In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.”  

    I wondered what the goals of the new policy of “slow the spread” could be. Was it zero-covid? Zero-covid was the objective of a small cult of fanatics that never gained much traction in the US. A serious go at it would require a country to permanently ban inbound international travel. This was done in a small and tightly controlled nation where a friend of mine lives. According to my friend, they had very low levels of infection; however, the nation’s economy was tourism-based and the continued success of the policy requires that travelers not enter the country. The operation was a success, the patient died. 

    Several other countries tried and failed zero-covid. Antarctica, which should have been a slam dunk, could not pull it off. Nor could an isolated island in the Pacific. In one hilarious story from the zero-aspiring nation of Australia, the virus escaped from jail when a Covid security guard hooked up with a detained person at a quarantine facility. 

    We were not flattening the curve, nor did it look like a strategy of total eradication. We were in a strange middle ground. At best we were pushing the pain into the future but with no plan to ever deal with it. The goals and exit conditions of the plan were not clearly explained. I did at one point find a statement by Dr. Fauci that preventive measures could drive the disease down to a very low level. Was it assumed to remain low forever? If not, then from that low base, outbreaks could be somehow contained?  

    University of California Professor Dr. Vinay Prasad MD wrote about a similar message from President Biden:

    So when people heard in Summer 2020 that Biden aimed to “get covid under control,” some people imagined an optimistic state of affairs whereby, once we all got vaccinated or wore masks for just 100 days (link), covid might be suppressed to such a permanently low level that most of us could forget about it, just as we forget about polio. Such people imagined a one-time, short-term effort to “get covid under control,” like unlocking a door.

    If we are to believe that a worldwide pandemic grew from an outbreak of twelve people in Wuhan, China to infect nearly the entire world (even indigenous tribes in the Amazon jungle who are by definition quarantined) why would it not do the same when we emerged from our underground fallout shelters? What if through assiduously standing in small circles painted on the floor in grocery stores and wearing underwear on our faces, we succeeded in driving the number of Covid infections down to a very small number? To pick a number, for example, twelve people. Why would the contagion not, in the absence of broader acquired immunity, spread again from that new base of twelve, until eventually reaching all of those remaining uninfected?   

    It took me some time to give it a name. I settled on “suppression.”

    The fundamental reason that suppression is not a policy is that it has no exit. For a thing to work it must work within a limited time. If the measures to slow the spread succeeded in slowing it, then what?

    The nature of the off ramp is the answer to the question, “What happens when we stop doing it?” If the answer is, “It would go right back to what it was doing before,” then there is no exit.  

    During 2020 I had people tell me that we could not end the lockdown because the epidemic would pick up right where it left off and millions would die AND (sometimes the same people ) that if we keep up the restrictive measures for a while then we could stop because the virus would not come back.  A bit logic rules out the possibility that the virus could both come back and not come back.

    Do we then spend the rest of our lives acting out Covid theater? Dr. Fauci said that he would never shake hands again. Blue check marks fret about quarantining their children. Jenin Younes reflected on a survey in which hypochondriac epidemiologists who are afraid to open their mail explain that they now consider a normal life to be dangerously reckless. Substack author Eugyppius writes about a medical journal editor who “can’t work out what we’re even doing here, but he wants us to keep doing it.”  

    Dr Prasad explained the difference between finite and infinite strategies:

    Even if most of Biden’s voters agreed with his campaign promise to “get covid under control” in the abstract, this slogan does not specify whether the state of being “under control” involves a one-time effort, or a sustained effort over time. If you unlock a door, you do it once and you can forget it; if you lift an overhead hatch, maybe you have to keep holding it up so that it doesn’t fall back down again.

    Slowing the spread – if such a thing is even possible – means we get to the same place later rather than sooner. Flat or not, it is over when you reach the right tail of the curve. The strange middle ground of slowing the spread with no exit condition, would, if tried, ruin our lives forever. Are you willing to live under covid restrictions for the rest of your life? And your children for the rest of their lives and all subsequent generations? For some measures that slow the spread of disease, such as indoor plumbing, garbage removal and better diet, the answer is yes.  But had our forebears during the plague of the Black Death had adopted a covid-like attempt at suppression, no one would have gone outdoors since the 15th century. 

    During this time of insanity, some of us went about our lives as best we could and ignored the restrictions. The rest of the world is now coming to terms with the understanding that the “precautions” don’t do much.

    At best what is going to happen anyway, happens.

    If there is no off ramp then the change is either permanent or it will go on until failure is evident and people stop caring. Then they will go back to normal one by one.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 19:40

  • 'Housing Affordability Is Getting Crushed': Costlier Loans Push 'American Dream' Out of Reach For First-Time Buyers
    ‘Housing Affordability Is Getting Crushed’: Costlier Loans Push ‘American Dream’ Out of Reach For First-Time Buyers

    As consumer-goods inflation has continued to surprise economists and shoppers alike with its ferocity, increasingly costly mortgages are putting first-time home buyers at a worsening disadvantage, and placing the ‘American Dream’ of owning one’s home even further out of reach.

    Bidding have already driven home prices to unprecedented highs, but growing demand for loans has sent mortgage rates to levels unseen in years. The cost for a 30-year loan has just hit a two-year high, having risen 20% since Christmas, Bloomberg reports.

    While those who already own homes have the advantage of benefiting from rising prices in their previous home, allowing them to more easily trade up, first-time buyers must make do with rising prices and rising mortgage rates.

    Costs for 30-year loans hit a more than two-year high of 3.69% last week, rising about 20% just since Christmas. Further increases are expected as the Federal Reserve, trying to curb inflation, hikes its benchmark rate. That’s a daunting prospect for entry-level buyers when affordability is already at its worst since 2018.

    And as we reported earlier this month, first-time buyers are already seeing their finances stretched thin as those who have managed to buy have seen the percentage of their incomes spent on mortgage payments jump to about 25.6%, according to the NAR. That’s the highest in three years.

    Source: <a href="

    As consumer-goods inflation has continued to surprise economists and shoppers alike with its ferocity, increasingly costly mortgages are putting first-time home buyers at a worsening disadvantage.

    Bidding have already driven home prices to unprecedented highs, but growing demand for loans has sent mortgage rates to levels unseen in years. The cost for a 30-year loan has just hit a two-year high, having risen 20% since Christmas, Bloomberg reports.

    While those who already own homes have the advantage of benefiting from rising prices in their previous home, allowing them to more easily trade up, first-time buyers must make do with rising prices and rising mortgage rates.

    Costs for 30-year loans hit a more than two-year high of 3.69% last week, rising about 20% just since Christmas. Further increases are expected as the Federal Reserve, trying to curb inflation, hikes its benchmark rate. That’s a daunting prospect for entry-level buyers when affordability is already at its worst since 2018.

    And as we reported earlier this month, first-time buyers are already seeing their finances stretched thin as those who have managed to buy have seen the percentage of their incomes spent on mortgage payments jump to about 25.6%, according to the NAR. That’s the highest in three years.

     

     

     

    Home buyers aren’t the only ones being squeezed by rising costs: renters are also feeling the pressure: new data from CoreLogic show that rental prices rents for single-family homes soared to an all-tim”>Bloomberg

    As Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics and a widely quoted voice on Wall Street, put it: “Housing affordability is set to get crushed.”

    “Housing affordability is set to get crushed,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, who expects 30-year rates to climb above 4% this year.

    “Many potential first-time homebuyers will get locked out of homeownership, at least until house prices come back to earth or mortgage rates turn back down,” he said. “Neither seems likely, at least not soon, and certainly not in time for the critical spring homebuying season.”

    Anecdotes about the housing market quoted by Bloomberg, WSJ and the rest of the financial press continue to depict a market where homes are snapped up within days or even hours with offers far above the asking price. As one New Jersey woman told Bloomberg: “I’m screwed…I’ll be renting for the rest of my life.”

    Cassie Homan, a single Philadelphia renter in her 40s, scours listings websites every day, searching for a modest place in the New Jersey suburbs to be closer to family. She’s on a month-to-month lease to stay flexible. But in her budget of under $200,000, homes go fast unless there’s something seriously wrong.

    She recently inquired about a remodeled two-bedroom house built in 1855 with an asking price of $140,000. But it was gone before she could see it, attracting three cash offers within two days. She considered another house only to discover that the seller was passing off the attic as a bedroom. A third property — listed without any photos — was off-limits to tours because a tenant was living there.

    Homan said she hopes rising rates cause a downturn in prices, opening up more inventory. Short of that, “I’m screwed — I have no chance in hell,” she said. “I’ll have to rent for the rest of my life.”

    Rising mortgage rates are also a problem because they make sellers less willing to part with their current lower-rate mortgages.

    While the current state of the housing market heading into the Spring – typically the hottest season for sales – is less than ideal for families and single people looking for a home, corporate landlords and larger investors have an advantage.

    Sherry Bailey, an agent in Atlanta, said her buyers are constantly losing out to big landlords paying cash.

    Bailey is working with a young woman with a government job and a budget of under $200,000 who has been forced to look in North Georgia mountain towns, an hour and a half outside Atlanta. Still, in the time it takes the client to discuss possibilities with her mom, competitors swoop down, Bailey said.

    “The spring market hasn’t even started,” she said, “and buyers are already discouraged.”

     

    Keep in mind, Atlanta has seen one of the largest increases in the share of homes bought by investors.

    Of course, home buyers aren’t the only ones being squeezed by rising costs: renters are also feeling the pressure: new data from CoreLogic show that rental prices rents for single-family homes soared to an all-time high at the end of 2021. Like Bloomberg said, renting a home is even costlier than buying one.

    No matter which corner of the market one looks in, it seems there is no respite from rising housing costs.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 19:20

  • JPMorgan Warns The Ghost Of 2018 Will Steamroll Goldman's Bullish Narrative
    JPMorgan Warns The Ghost Of 2018 Will Steamroll Goldman’s Bullish Narrative

    Despite the wild rollercoaster ride in markets which refuses to slow down due to the record low liquidity in the emini S&P which is whipsawing risk assets on a daily basis, and despite Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin cutting his year-end S&P estimate from 5,100 to 4,900 last Friday as the bank scrambles to catch down to far more downbeat realistic strategists such as Michael Wilson and Michael Hartnett, Goldman flow trader Scott Rubner pointed to one of the most remarkable, and perhaps perplexing, features of the market in 2022 – despite the sharp drop in stock prices, the YTD period has been marked by a relentless tidal wave of inflows as burst after BTFD burst enters – which Rubner cited as a reason why it is unlikely that we will see a capitulatory flush lower in stocks.

    As a reminder, on Sunday we noted that according to EPFR data, cumulative equity flows YTD in 2021 have hit a record $153bn, exceeding the pace of early-2021 (when the year started with $151bn in inflows, ahead of a record year of more than $1tn inflows), despite what appears to be widespread revulsion toward risk assets.

    Picking up on this peculiar flow dynamic, Rubner wrote that “with money flowing into global equities “at extreme levels”, this would need to change before a larger correction can take place: I would turn bearish if the money slows or reverses” he said, adding that “portfolio rebalances of this size typically last for the full quarter (Q1 2022).”

    But if Rubner’s trigger to turn bearish is the slowing or reversal of record inflows, then JPMorgan quant Nick Panigirtzoglou who publishes the popular weekly Flows and Liquidity newsletter, has some bad news: the record tsunami of inflows is coming to an end.

    Speaking to Bloomberg, Panigirtzoglou echoes what we first said last Friday in “Despite Turmoil, Stocks Seeing Largest Ever Inflows In 2022“, and points to the record $152 billion in equity fundflows sunk by investors YTD (or $5.7 billion on average for each of the 27 trading days this year, which annualizes to $1.322 Trillion), after a gangbusters 2021 for both stock returns and flows, which defies the worst January for the S&P 500 since 2009…

    … even as bond funds have already seen the first outflows in two years.

    But unlike his Goldman peer, Panigirtzoglou believes that stock managers are set to join their outflow-lashed peers in the bond world as upcoming rate hikes spur greater volatility just like in 2018. Back then, FOMOed investors funneled capital into equity funds in the first quarter, only to divest en masse as monetary policy tightened further.

    “There is a good chance that 2022, in terms of equity fund flows, will look like 2018,” Panigirtzoglou told Bloomberg in an interview. “It started very strong in continuation of the previous year, but at some point that flow picture will be wilting.”

    With bond funds having already seen $20 billion in outflows YTD, this quarter is shaping up to the biggest win for stock allocations since 2013. The diverging flows – which as we discussed previously have been sparked by a Pavlovin BTFD reaction among both retail and institutional investors and follow a retail trading boom born out of the depths of the pandemic boredom – are noteworthy because individual investors largely dumped stocks in favor of bonds during the 10-year bull market that started in March 2009, only to see this trend reverse dramatically in 2021.

    Of course, calls for a “great rotation” are nothing new and virtually every single year since 2009 we have heard one or more sellside analysts predict that a massive rotation out of bonds and into stocks is imminent, yet one never arrived (the massive equity inflows in 2021 were coupled with sizable inflows into bonds as well as trillions in newly created money were allocated across all risk assets). Meanwhile, thanks to faster price appreciation, equity allocation from U.S. households has already stood at a record high.

    Curiously 2022 may be the closest we have come to a pure “great rotation”, as U.S. large-cap stock funds attracted $34.1 billion alone in the week to Feb. 9, the most ever, even after the new year bleeding in technology companies. The inflows were funded from withdrawals from fixed-income and money-market funds.

    Others, such as Rich Weiss, CIO at American Century Investments, agree: he notes that the current taste for equity funds reflects the fact that the S&P 500 has posted three straight years of double-digit returns. As rates rise at a time when profit growth is estimated to slow, he doesn’t view the backdrop as constructive for equities either.

    “The flows follow the returns, not the other way around,” Weiss said. “By moving out of bonds and going into stocks because you’re afraid of rising interest rates, you’re likely jumping out of the frying pan into the fire in many cases.”

    While the past is hardly prologue, consider the events of 2018 highlighted by Panigirtzoglou when real rates were also on the rise. Investors initially funneled almost $220 billion into equities in the first quarter, extending a robust streak of inflows from 2017. But after the S&P 500 suffered a 10% decline from its peak in that February, money dwindled to $60 billion a quarter for the rest of 2018. Flows then turned outright negative at the start of 2019 after the benchmark plunged to the brink of a bear market.

    Not everyone agrees with this unexpectedly gloomy outlook from the JPM quant, one which flies in the face of everything that Panigirtzoglou’s co-worker (and boss) Marko Kolanovic has been preaching in his weekly “BTFD” permabull sermons. And indeed, the bull case for equities will be familiar to many: while soaring inflation threatens to crush profit magins, and erode the value of future bond returns and devalues future “growth” company cash flows, companies have ridden the wave of price pressures to record profits. With income from S&P 500 firms expected to expand in each of the next two years (not if Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson has anything to say about it) many view stocks as being better positioned than fixed income. That’s especially true with Treasuries down almost 4% in 2022 already and could well close out the year in the red at this rate, in what would be the first back-to-back annual losses in history.

    Indeed, one can argue – as we have – that while stocks are poised to drop, bonds will suffer even greater losses as the Fed proceeds to hike rates and drain trillions in liquidity, as such flows out of the greater of two evils and into stocks is certainly conceivable: after all, there will come a moment when the Fed will capitulate and ease, a moment which will send risk assets explosively higher.

    Meanwhile, as we discussed yesterday corporate bonds – whose liquidity is suddenly collapsing – have slipped 5.9% since January, on course for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis.

    “Bonds typically are where you can put money in and just wait out any volatility, but right now I think the volatility is centered in the bond market and will continue to be centered in the bond market,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “You’re almost guaranteed to see those assets lose value in the coming year. And therefore it pushes investors to move out of bonds into equities.”

    The worst possible scenario, if 2018 is any guide, is that both bond and stock fund managers may face an uphill battle attracting money from investors. And with traders pricing seven rate hikes this year, the appeal of cash-like instruments is poised to rise at long last, according to Panigirtzoglou who agrees with Goldman’s tactical call from this weekend to go into cash..

    “As the Fed raises rates and other central banks are following the Fed, the risk is that at some point equity fund flows dissipate, or even turn negative,” he said. “I would not be surprised if we could have some sort of a repeat of 2018.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 19:00

  • Kremlin Teases 'Alternatives' To SWIFT If Sanctioned, Including Crypto, In "Fortress Russia" Strategy
    Kremlin Teases ‘Alternatives’ To SWIFT If Sanctioned, Including Crypto, In “Fortress Russia” Strategy

    NATO is now talking about Russia’s failure to withdraw troops from near Ukraine even though on Tuesday the Kremlin had announced the start of a draw down of some military units in the south. “Russia’s failure to withdraw can be confirmed through commercial satellite imagery,” NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday. 

    His statement comes less than 24 hours after President Biden addressed the Ukraine situation in a televised speech wherein he alleged that a Russian attack on Ukraine is “still very much a possibility” and that the troop reduction is “not verified yet”. Biden took the opportunity to again warn of “overwhelming international condemnation” and unprecedented sanctions, including “export controls…methods we did not pursue when Russia took Crimea in 2014.”

    As part of the “decisive response” the administration has said it has in its arsenal as a maximalist ‘nuclear option’ which would see Russia off from the international SWIFT payment settlement system. But Moscow was quick to respond Wednesday, with Finance Minister Anton Siluanov reaffirming his country has “prepared alternatives” which ensure such US sanctions while yet “unpleasant” would remain “not fatal”. He assured in an online briefing that Russia will fulfill all settlements, and further that “Any restrictions on energy exports will be compensated by corresponding price growth.”

    Via TASS

    “Thank god we have enough forex liquidity and enough forex reserves,” Siluanov told reporters in the briefing. “They say we have a financial shield in the form of gold and forex reserves, budget surplus and [budget] rule, low debt.”

    When it comes to the scenario of being cut off from SWIFT, which is being reported as possibly part of a sweeping sanctions package under preparation by US and European officials, Siluanov referenced the his country being able to withstand it, with plans being readied for a “Fortress Russia” approach: 

    “We expect the country’s financial system to continue to focus inwards as part of the “Fortress Russia” strategy and advance digital and fintech sovereignty.”

    It was reported that as of early February, Russia possesses nearly $635 billion in gold and forex reserves. On the energy question, he affirmed that Russia stands ready to re-route to other markets.

    The comment about advancing “digital and fintech sovereignty” is particularly interesting in light of President Putin’s October 2021 statements wherein he rattled American financial officials after hinting that cryptocurrencies could be ‘weaponized’ as a dollar replacement. 

    “Like banning the internet…”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    At the time, the Russian president discussed potential use cases of cryptocurrencies in a CNBC interview following a plenary session of the ​​Russian Energy Week forum, noting that while he considers cryptocurrency “crude and under-developed,” it could “some day” be used instead of the US dollar to trade with.

    “I believe that it has value,” Putin told CNBC, when asked whether bitcoin or cryptocurrencies can be used in place of the US dollar.

    “But I don’t believe it can be used in the oil trade.”

    Later in the interview, Putin reiterated his criticisms about how Washington’s abuse of the dollar’s dominance is tantamount to brandishing an “economic weapon”, and remains keen to ditch dollar-denominated payments.

    But as we detailed at the time, given recent legislation as well as ongoing debate in the state parliament, there’s been incredibly mixed signals out of Russia concerning crypto and its potential use as part of Russia’s “alternatives” to SWIFT, but this current crisis is only likely to serve to push Moscow toward further favorability. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 18:40

  • Florida Sets Tourism Record For 2021
    Florida Sets Tourism Record For 2021

    Authored by Jannis Falkenstern via The Epoch Times,

    Florida is open for business, welcoming nearly 118 million domestic visitors in 2021, and surpassing pre-pandemic visitation levels for two quarters in a row.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R.) was all smiles on Feb. 15 as he announced that the number of visitors to the Sunshine State between October and December 2021 was almost 31 million, marking the second consecutive quarter that overall visitation has surpassed 2019, pre-pandemic levels.

    “In 2021, Florida received nearly 118 million domestic visitors from all over the U.S. In the last two quarters of 2021, tourism exceeded 2019 pre-pandemic numbers by seven percent,” the governor said at a press briefing.  “So, Florida is one of the few places in the world where more people are visiting now than before the pandemic. Compared to 2019 Quarter four, domestic tourism in 2021 Quarter four was 7 percent higher.”

    Being called “the freest state in the United States” by DeSantis may well account for why Florida was chosen as a destination by so many. Some travelers were families on a fun vacation, while others were more recognizable as “lockdown politicians.”

    “You have governors that have locked down their states, imposed mandates, imposed restrictions; you have big city mayors that have imposed lockdown policies,” the governor said.

    “You have people on TV news networks that advocate for restrictions and lockdowns and almost all of them have been criticizing Florida for a year and a half–yet many of them are part of our visitation figures.”

    Among those seen in Florida over the past two years was Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who visited in April 2021, maskless, while urging her constituents to stay home and “mask up.” 

    She denied her trip was a vacation, saying that she was checking on her “ailing, elderly father” who owns property in Florida.

    CNN’s Don Lemon was also spotted poolside, also maskless, after criticizing the governor for his policies on COVID-19.

    Other noteworthy visitors were New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who got a welcome tweet from the governor, and California Congressman Eric Swalwell, seen maskless in the lobby of a Miami hotel.  Both members of Congress have urged the use of masks and vaccine mandates throughout the pandemic and have openly criticized their Republican counterparts for failing to enforce such measures.

    DeSantis said the tourist development tax revenues increased 74 percent over 2020 figures, which “may not be that surprising” as people did not want to travel as much because of initial concern over COVID-19 when not as much was known about the virus.

    People are seen at the beach in Jacksonville Beach, Fla., on April 17, 2020. (Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

    The U.S. travel industry predicted in 2021 that domestic trips across the nation would finally climb out of the slump caused by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) virus in 2023, and finish with growth three percent above pre-pandemic levels; international tourism was not expected to recover to 2019 levels until 2025.

    While tourism in other states was practically paused, Florida aggressively marketed outside its borders for seven months and saw steady growth in visitor volume each quarter. Quarter four of 2021 was no exception with almost 31 million visitors, according to the Visit Florida website.

    After third quarter 2021 tourism numbers were announced, Danny Gaekwad, owner of MGM Hotels and chairman of the Visit Florida board of directors said the influx of visitors was a “huge win” for the state, calling Florida “an undisputed leader in the U.S. travel sector.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 18:20

  • Senior Morgan Stanley Banker Reportedly Key Player In "Block Trading" Probe
    Senior Morgan Stanley Banker Reportedly Key Player In “Block Trading” Probe

    When the Wall Street Journal first reported the latest leak about an SEC and DOJ investigation into an alleged “block-trading” cartel that reportedly began a few years back – either in 2018 or in 2019, depending on which report you to believe – it was only the latest leaked update about a series of seemingly related SEC probes: the investigations by turn involve hedge funds, including big-name short-sellers, and big banks (who else: Morgan Stanley and Goldman). There was talk of “short-selling cabals” and illicit “block trades” that until very recently were widely regarded by Wall Street as a acceptable part of doing business. Or at least a “grey area”.

    Well, Bloomberg has furnished one of the latest updates on this ongoing saga, reporting early Wednesday that at least one senior Morgan Stanley executive has become enmeshed in the government’s investigation into the block trades, and more specifically, whether the bankers may have tipped certain hedge fund clients of impending block trades before they were actually brought to market.

    Keep in mind, when government prosecutors leak a banker’s name like this, they’re usually doing it because they want him or her to cooperate. Or at least that’s how it played out with Goldman’s TIm Leissner during the1MDB probe, an investigation that just happens to have newfound relevance given the start of the trial of a more junior Goldman banker who is taking most of the criminal rap for the bank. Goldman ended up pleading guilty to criminal charges, but Leissner struck a well-publicized immunity deal early.

    Bloomberg’s sources claim that Pawan Passi, a senior banker who ran Morgan Stanley’s US equity syndicate desk while some of the (again, alleged) misbehavior was taking place. Keep in mind, according to Bloomberg’s description, these ‘alleged’ business practices (at this point, the allegations have mostly been communicated to the public in the form of anonymously sourced leaks) were only recently Wall Street “best practices” until fairly recently (presumably until right around the time the investigations started, or soon thereafter).

    But we digress. Here’s Bloomberg:

    Pawan Passi, who ran Morgan Stanley’s U.S. equity syndicate desk and led the firm’s communications with investors for equity transactions, is among individuals whose activities are facing scrutiny, the people said, asking not to be identified describing the confidential inquiry. Bloomberg reported in November that the company had put Passi on leave.

    Morgan Stanley is at the center of a sprawling investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Justice Department, which are digging into how bankers work with hedge funds to privately carry out stock sales big enough to send market prices tumbling. The probe, which emerged in press reports earlier this week, is gathering information on the activities of a slate of money managers and at least one other competitor, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Authorities haven’t accused anyone of wrongdoing.

    To guard itself against skeptical readers, Bloomberg named three reporters in the story’s byline and a legion of others who received taglines for “reporting” related to the story. In all likelihood, given the nature of the information, this leak is likely coming from the SEC.

    The report also dropped a few other high-profile Wall Street “names” who are reportedly involved in the investigation.

    Officials have asked key Wall Street firms to preserve their communications with a roster of fund executives, including Islet Management’s Joseph Samuels, the people said. Investigators have sought similar information on a former employee at Segantii Capital Management, as well as people at other firms, some of the people said.

    Representatives for Islet founder Samuels and Segantii had no immediate comment.

    But why does the SEC care about these block trades? We’ll allow Bloomberg to explain:

    Highly secretive, market moving and potentially treacherous — block trading has been one of Wall Street’s most delicate arts since it emerged as a major business line more than a half century ago. Legendary Goldman Sachs dealmaker Gus Levy pioneered the business in the 1960s, helping position his firm to become the trading powerhouse that it is today.

    Yet Morgan Stanley, with deep ties to Silicon Valley ventures and legions of hedge fund clients eager to bet on their future, has wrested away the lead in recent years. It commanded 26% of the market for block trades involving U.S. stocks in 2021, according to data compiled by Dealogic — ranking No. 1 ahead of Goldman for a second straight year.

    The images of highly exclusive, after-hours trading conjured up by Bloomberg in its report brings to mind images of bankers entertaining “clients” at strip clubs, and in other illicit, male-oriented gatherings that were a distinctive feature of the Wall Street of pre-financial crisis lore. That’s exactly the type of behavior that the SEC has long justified its existence by reining in, so when the next financial collapse rolls around, they can at least pretend to the American public like they actually did some “regulating” of Wall Street’s excesses during their all-too-brief time in power.

    Not to be outdone, WSJ has also published another scoop of this own, which we have covered here, about the other side of this weird new tandem investigation – a probe into “spoofing” and other nefarious tactics used by some short sellers. The government in that case is insinuating that some short sellers have “conspired” to share market-moving research early.

    And additionally, hours after Wednesday’s Bloomberg story, another report hit, alleging – for the first time – that the Archegos block trades seemingly played some role in the probe, which would be quite shocking, since those block trades quite literally took Wall Street by surprise when they first landed after a hastily brokered deal between senior bankers at half a dozen megabanks gave way thanks to – yet again – Morgan Stanley (and Goldman Sachs).

    • MORGAN STANLEY’S ARCHEGOS UNWINDING SPED UP BLOCK-TRADING PROBE

    Bloomberg’s “sources” now expect us to believe that their investigation into Wall Street “block trading” culture had already been underway for a couple or years before the Archegos blowup, which facilitated some of Wall Street’s most visible block trades (trades that Zero Hedge was among the first to report on). T

    According to the “US authorities” and “regulators” cited by Bloomberg, the collapse of Bill Hwang’s massively leveraged family office – which has, according to media reports, collapsed – has intersected with “a number” of investigations.

    U.S. authorities ramped up their investigation into whether big banks and their hedge fund clients broke rules when privately negotiating large stock sales after the blowup at Archegos Capital Management, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

    Regulators had already been scrutinizing block trades for years when Archegos shined a fresh spotlight on the market: Stocks Hwang had made massive bets on started tanking last March, prompting banks to unload tens of billions of dollars of his holdings through a spree of huge sales. Morgan Stanley had amassed one of the largest exposures, and was one of the first to dump positions that eventually led to the flame-out of the family office. With a new hook, authorities soon began poring through the carnage.

    The spectacular rise and sudden collapse of Hwang’s fund has set off a number of inquiries into issues from market manipulation to collusion among banks. The downfall also helped advance a block-trading probe that started as early as 2018. Last year, investigators from the Securities and Exchange Commission and U.S. Department of Justice stepped up their demands for information.

    Apparently, Twitter is more willing to collaborate with government censors as a check on its errant users, courtesy of the LIbertarian party of New Hampshire.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    For the Morgan Stanley bankers, now comes the less-fun part of working in finance: facing down federal prosecutors with your high-priced defense attorney.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 18:00

  • "A Recurring Fountain Of Revenue": FDA Exec Admits Biden Planning Annual Shots, Including Toddlers
    “A Recurring Fountain Of Revenue”: FDA Exec Admits Biden Planning Annual Shots, Including Toddlers

    Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Executive Officer Christopher Cole was caught on undercover camera by Project Veritas, where he revealed that his agency plans to announce that annual Covid-19 vaccinations will become official policy.

    As Project Veritas reports (emphasis ours):

    Cole is an Executive Officer heading up the agency’s Countermeasures Initiatives, which plays a critical role in ensuring that drugs, vaccines, and other measures to counter infectious diseases and viruses are safe. He made the revelations on a hidden camera to an undercover Project Veritas reporter.

    Cole indicates that annual COVID-19 shots isn’t probable — but certain. When pushed on how he knows an annual shot will become policy, Cole states, “Just from everything I’ve heard, they [FDA] are not going to not approve it.”

    The footage, which is part one of a two-part series on the FDA, also contains soundbites from Cole about the financial incentives pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer have to get the vaccine approved for annual usage.

    “It’ll be recurring fountain of revenue,” Cole said in the hidden camera footage. “It might not be that much initially, but it’ll recurring — if they can — if they can get every person required at an annual vaccine, that is a recurring return of money going into their company.”

    Perhaps the most explosive part of the footage is the moment where Cole brazenly talks about the impact that an Emergency Use Authorization has on overcoming the regulatory concerns of mandating vaccines on children. 

    “They’re all approved under an emergency just because it’s not as impactful as some of the other approvals,” Cole said when asked if he thought there was “really an emergency for kids.” 

    Cole, who claims his role with the FDA is to ensure the agency uses a framework of safety, security, and effectiveness as a part of its preparedness and response protocol, specifically cited concerns over “long term effects, especially with someone younger.” 

    Watch the entire clip below:

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 17:44

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Feb 16

Today’s News 16th February 2022

  • Nord Stream: The Geopolitics Of Keeping Germany 'Down', Russia 'Out', & Instability In Ukraine
    Nord Stream: The Geopolitics Of Keeping Germany ‘Down’, Russia ‘Out’, & Instability In Ukraine

    Authored by Alastair Crooke, former British diplomat, founder and director of the Beirut-based Conflicts Forum,

    It seems reasonable to expect we will have this crisis with us – in its various forms – for at least the next two years…

    Macron in a remarkably frank interview with a French Journal put his finger on the main structural problems facing the EU: He lambasted the fact that the EU Council (and other EU states) had vetoed the earlier French-German proposal for a Russia-EU summit. The consequences to this omission, he said starkly, was that: ‘Others’ were talking to the Russians on the behalf of the EU. It’s not hard to surmise that he is implying that U.S. ‘interests’ (whether directly or via NATO ventriloquism) were the ones doing the talking. And that ‘Europe’ had lost its voice.

    This is not simply a case of wounded amour propre by the French Jupiterian leader. It is rather, that some West European leaders (ie. the Carolingian Axis), belatedly have awoken to the realisation that the whole fake artifice of the ‘imminent Russian invasion’ of Ukraine is about corralling European states back into bloc (NATO) discipline. Macron – to give him his due – showed by his remarks at the Moscow press conference that he understood that silence at this crucial moment could define Europe for the next decades – leaving it bereft of the autonomy (let alone any modicum of sovereignty) that Macron so much wants for Europe.

    The account of Macron’s press conference after his long tête-à-tête with Putin represents the contortionism of a French President unable to explicitly diss the dominant Anglo-American narrative on Ukraine, whilst saying – in barely coded language – that he was at one with Russia on all its complaints about the failed European security architecture, and the real risks of its toxicity for Russia that could lead to war in Europe.

    Macron explicitly said that new security arrangements in Europe are absolutely needed. (In spite of his care not to poke the U.S. in the eye, he was clearly signalling a non-NATO ‘new’ arrangement). He also flatly contradicted the Washington narrative, saying that he did not believe Russia had an intent to invade Ukraine. Adding that in respect to NATO expansion, mistakes had been made.

    Macron, in short, came out at complete odds with the Biden narrative of imminent war. He clearly risks an outpouring of Anglo-U.S. and some European wrath for unreservedly taking on board Putin’s ‘not an inch’ stance of full Kiev compliance with Minsk, and a complete settlement for Donbass, as his own. The French President subsequently travelled to Kiev to shore up the ceasefire on the Contact Line. Predictably, the Anglo press is now hailing Minsk II as a weapon being held to the head of Kiev – precisely loaded to fracture the state and trigger a civil war.

    Macron, from his comments, seemingly understands that the Ukraine crisis – through posing grave risks war inside Europe – paradoxically does not lie at the heart of the Carolingian fears.

    Strikingly, China is saying the same explicitly: The authoritative Global Times in an editorial warns that the U.S. is instigating conflict in Ukraine in order to tighten bloc discipline – to corral European States back into the U.S.-led fold. No doubt, China makes the connection that Ukraine provides the perfect pivot for shepherding Europe towards America’s next stage of requiring a united front with the U.S. for the later task of barricading-in China, behind her borders.

    In play, therefore, are key decisions that will define Europe for the future. On the one hand, (as Pepe Escobar noted some two years ago), “the goal of Russian and Chinese policy is to recruit Germany into a triple alliance locking together the Eurasian land mass à la Mackinder into the greatest geopolitical alliance in history – switching world power in favour of these three great powers, and against Anglo-Saxon sea power”.

    And on the other hand, NATO was conceived, from the outset, as a means of Anglo-American control over Europe and more precisely for keeping Germany ‘down’, and Russia ‘out’ (in that old axiom of western strategists). Lord Hastings (Lionel Ismay), NATO’s first Secretary General, famously said that NATO was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”.

    This mindset lingers on, but the formula has acquired today a greater import, and a new twist: To keep Germany ‘down and price uncompetitive’ versus U.S. goods; to keep Russia ‘out’ from being Europe’s source of cheap energy; and to keep China ‘fenced out’ from EU–U.S. trade. The aim is to contain Europe firmly within America’s narrowly defined economic orbit and compelled to forgo the benefits of Chinese and Russian technology, finance and trade – thus helping towards achieving the aim of barricading China within its borders.

    Largely overlooked is the geo-political import: that China, for the first time, is directly intervening (taking a very clear and powerful stance) on a matter central to European affairs. In the longer term, this suggests that China will be taking a more politically orientated approach to its relations with European states.

    In this context, at the Biden and Olaf Scholtz’s press conference in Washington this week – lit up, in flashing neon lights, for all to see – Biden literally bullied Germany into a commitment to scrap Nordstream 2 (should Russia invade Ukraine), reflecting Washington’s aim to keep Germany on the leash of bloc discipline. He effectively said that if Scholtz doesn’t bin Nordstream, then he, Biden, would do it: “I can do it”, he underlined.

    Yet, the moment he gives that undertaking, Germany’s little slice of sovereignty is gone – Scholtz yields it to Washington. Moreover, Macron’s aspiration to some wider euro-autonomy is gone too, for without French and German policy alignment, EU ‘pretend sovereignty’ is gone. Moreover, if Nordstream is binned, EU energy security is blown away. And with little real alternative supply, the EU is nailed for good to expensive U.S. LNG dependency (with the likelihood of gas price crises at home, too).

    It is not clear (and a likely source of anxiety for Macron), whether Germany’s refusal to give Biden his desired Nordstream ultimatum represents any meaningful reserve of Euro-sovereignty at all. What would happen were Washington to incite the Ukrainian militia ‘crazies’ into some outrage, or into a false flag attack that triggers mayhem?

    Would Scholtz be able to hold his Nordstream ‘line’ in the ensuing frenzy that the Anglo-axis would whip up? The little space which Macron has been trying to free-up in order to resolve the Ukraine crisis, would evaporate in the moment.

    All this underlines what a narrow ‘line’ Macron is trying to walk: Were Schulz ‘to cave’ over Nordstream, Macron’s aspirations to re-shape Europe’s security architecture inevitably would be perceived in Moscow – though laudable – as hollow for their lack of any real European agency.

    And in the Ukrainian particular, Macron’s room for manoeuvre to prevent a war in Europe would be attenuated, since only by Macron (backed by the EU), acting in lockstep with Putin, would there be a chance to compel Kiev to implement Minsk II.

    The list of Macron’s challenges do not end there: France has the EU rotating Presidency, but EU foreign policy requires unanimity amongst member-states. Can he get that? Will Team Biden become so angered at France playing the maverick, that Washington resolves to stick a spanner in Macron’s works?

    Biden needs a foreign policy achievement for his campaign into the Midterms. And 63% of Americans say they would support massive sanctions imposed on Russia, were Moscow to invade Ukraine. Biden is known to believe in the adage that ultimately all politics – including foreign policy – is subservient to domestic electoral needs. Heavily sanctioning Russia – with Europe acting in lockstep – is just the step that would likely be seen in the White House as giving his ratings a needed fillip. (And not unprecedented: Recall Bill Clinton, under pressure over the Lewinsky exposé, triggered the Balkan war to distract from his personal predicament).

    Not surprisingly, President Putin is cautious.

    Is Macron, who says he has consulted widely, speaking for the EU? And most important of all, where does Washington stand in this?

    The most significant point to grasp from the Putin–Macron episode is that it gave the lie to the idea that Moscow is somehow hoping to open negotiations with the West on secondary issues, as a possible gateway to Russia’s existential concerns. Russia is open to negotiations, but only in respect to Putin’s three red lines: No NATO (including stealth NATO) in Ukraine; no strike missiles on Russia’s border; and the roll-back of NATO to the lines of 1997. Putin did not give an inch on the latter; he gave not an inch either on Minsk as the only solution in Ukraine. Putin did not give at all the impression of a man liking negotiating for the sake of negotiating.

    Bottom line: No easy fixes. Even if conflict is frozen or paused over the short term, it will not hold longer-term, as the West refuses to acknowledge that Putin means what he says. This likely will only change through the sides’ experience of pain. The West, for now, sits sanguine in the belief that it has escalatory preponderance in the application of pain. We’ll see how true that proves to be.

    It seems reasonable to expect we will have this crisis with us – in its various forms – for at least the next two years. These political initiatives mark but the start of a drawn-out, high-stakes, phase of a Russian effort to shift the European security architecture into a new form which the West presently rejects. The Russian aim will be to keep the pressures, and even the latency, of war ever-present, in order to harass war-averse Western leaders to make this necessary shift.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/16/2022 – 00:05

  • Visualizing The World At War
    Visualizing The World At War

    May 8, 2021 marked 76 years since the end of the Second World War in Europe – VE Day.

    While the conflict which claimed millions of lives on European soil is firmly committed to the annals of history, Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes that conflict in the East of the continent is still a harsh reality in the present day.

    Even before the recently increased risk of a Russian invasion, the Ukrainian crisis, ravaging the Donbass region of the country, had amassed a death toll above the 13 thousand mark.

    As data collection by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) shows, a substantial portion of the globe is still engulfed in some form of conflict.

    This infographic shows countries in which there have been reports of armed clashes involving state forces and/or rebel groups in 2022. Even as early as February 4, and using this simplified definition, the presence of war across the world is extensive.

    Infographic: The World at War in 2021 | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Unlike the situations in Donbass and Syria, for example, not all conflicts fit the picture we may have in our minds when thinking of war.

    In Mexico in 2021 for example, ACLED recorded 6 armed clashes involving state forces. Each one though was a battle between different law enforcement entities – providing a snapshot of the ongoing fight against police corruption and the deep-seated influence of organized crime.

    So far for 2022, no such incidents have been recorded in the country.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 23:45

  • How The CDC Abandoned Science
    How The CDC Abandoned Science

    Authored by Vinay Prasad via TabletMag.com,

    Mass youth hospitalizations, COVID-induced diabetes, and other myths from the brave new world of science as political propaganda…

    The main federal agency guiding America’s pandemic policy is the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, which sets widely adopted policies on masking, vaccination, distancing, and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of COVID and ensure the virus is less morbid when it leads to infection. The CDC is, in part, a scientific agency—they use facts and principles of science to guide policy—but they are also fundamentally a political agency: The director is appointed by the president of the United States, and the CDC’s guidance often balances public health and welfare with other priorities of the executive branch.

    Throughout this pandemic, the CDC has been a poor steward of that balance, pushing a series of scientific results that are severely deficient. This research is plagued with classic errors and biases, and does not support the press-released conclusions that often follow. In all cases, the papers are uniquely timed to further political goals and objectives; as such, these papers appear more as propaganda than as science. The CDC’s use of this technique has severely damaged their reputation and helped lead to a growing divide in trust in science by political party. Science now risks entering a death spiral in which it will increasingly fragment into subsidiary verticals of political parties. As a society, we cannot afford to allow this to occur. Impartial, honest appraisal is needed now more than ever, but it is unclear how we can achieve it.

    In November 2020, a CDC study sought to prove that mask mandates slowed the spread of the coronavirus. The study found that counties in Kansas which implemented mask mandates saw COVID case rates start to fall (light blue below), while counties that did not saw rates continue to climb (dark blue):

    CDC.GOV

    The data scientist Youyang Gu immediately noted that locales with more rapid rise would be more likely to implement a mandate, and thus one would expect cases to fall more in such locations independent of masking, as people’s behavior naturally changes when risk escalates. Gu zoomed out on the same data and considered a longer horizon, and the results were enlightening: It appeared as if all counties did the same whether they masked or not:

    YOUYANG GU

    The CDC had merely shown a tiny favorable section, depicted in the red circle above, but the subsequent pandemic waves dwarf their results.

    In short, the CDC’s study was not capable of proving anything and was highly misleading, but it served the policy goal of encouraging cloth mask mandates.

    When it comes to promoting mask mandates in school, in October 2021 the CDC famously offered a comparison of masked and unmasked schools in Arizona’s Pima and Maricopa counties in their own journal, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). The analysis claimed that schools with no mask requirement were 3.5 times more likely to experience a COVID outbreak when compared with schools that mandated masking. But the analysis did not adjust for rates of vaccination among either teachers or students. The paper also looked at two counties in Arizona with different political preferences, and thus did not separate mask mandates from other patterns of behavior that fall within partisan lines. Democratic voters, for example, are much more likely to embrace mask mandates and are more likely to otherwise curtail their behavior as they report greater overall concern about COVID. Elementary schoolchildren generally do better with COVID than high school kids, but the CDC’s analysis lumped all ages together, and might have been biased by the fact that mask mandates were more common at ages when outbreak detection occurs less often.

    These were only a few of the CDC paper’s problems. When the reporter David Zweig investigated it for The Atlantic, he found that the exposure times varied: The mask mandate schools were open for fewer hours per day, with less time for outbreaks to occur. Zweig also found that the number of schools included did not add up. He hypothesized that some schools conducting remote learning might have been wrongly included, but when he asked the paper’s authors to provide him a list of the schools, they didn’t. In short, the more one examined this study, the more it fell apart.

    Masking is not the only matter in which the CDC’s stated policy goal has coincided with very poor-quality science that was, coincidentally, published in their own journal. Consider the case of vaccination for kids between the ages of 5 and 11. COVID vaccination in this age group has stalled, which runs counter to the CDC’s goal of maximum vaccination. Interestingly, vaccinating kids between 5 and 11 is disputed globally; Sweden recently elected not to vaccinate healthy kids in this age group, and some public health experts believe that it would be preferable for kids to gain immunity from natural exposure instead. Stalling U.S. uptake therefore reflects a legitimate and open scientific debate, regardless of whether the CDC’s policy goal would like to consider it closed.

    Enter the CDC’s new study. Widely covered in news outlets, the January 2022 study claims that kids below the age of 18 who get diagnosed with COVID are 2.5 times more likely to be diagnosed with diabetes. “These findings underscore the importance of COVID-19 prevention among all age groups,” the authors write, “including vaccination for all eligible children and adolescents.” But a closer examination of the study again reveals problems.

    First, it does not adjust for body mass index. Higher BMI is a risk factor for COVID, prompting hospitalization and diabetes, and yet the CDC analysis does not adjust for weight at all. Second, the absolute risks the study finds are incredibly low. Even if the authors’ finding is true, it demonstrates an increase in diabetes of up to 6 in 10,000 COVID survivors. Third, the CDC’s analysis uses billing record diagnoses as a surrogate for COVID cases, but many kids had and recovered from COVID without seeking medical care. Without a true denominator that conveys the actual number of COVID cases, the entire analysis might be artifact. As the former dean of Harvard Medical School Jeffrey Flier told The New York Times, “The CDC erred in taking a preliminary and potentially erroneous association and tweeting it to specifically create alarm in parents.” Some might view it as a mistake, but after observing these matters for almost two years, I believe it was the entire point of the study: Alarm might boost flagging vaccine uptake in kids.

    (Already, a better study out of the United Kingdom finds no causal link between COVID and diabetes in kids.)

    Manufacturing alarm at the very moment an age or other demographic cohort is targeted for vaccination has become a pattern for the CDC. On May 10, 2021, the FDA granted Emergency Use Authorization for the 12- to 15-year-old cohort to receive the Pfizer vaccine. On June 11, the CDC published a study in MMWR claiming to demonstrate rising hospitalization among this age group; widespread media coverage of the study quickly followed. But the absolute rates for this age group were, in reality, amazingly low: Less than 1.5 per 100,000, which was lower than they had been in the previous December. Meanwhile, a safety signal was being investigated—myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart muscle—which was more common after the second dose, and reported to be as frequent as 1 in 3,000-6,000, according to the Israeli Ministry of Health. Other countries became reluctant to push two doses within the standard 21- to 28-day timeline for these ages. By July, the U.K. had decided against pushing vaccines for this cohort, a decision that was walked back only slowly.

    CDC.GOV

    The CDC was undeterred, and in recent weeks the agency’s director has started to push for more doses at these ages. Against the advice of an FDA advisory committee, Rochelle Walensky has moved forward with recommending boosters for 12- to 15-year-olds. This view differs from WHO guidance and that of other countries, including Canada, which is not authorizing boosters for healthy adolescents aged 12-17. But when it comes to vaccination, the CDC has a single policy: All Americans should get three doses, regardless of age or medical conditions. This is not science as such, but science as political propaganda.

    If that sounds like an exaggeration, consider a final example: the CDC’s near-total dismissal of natural immunity. Many other countries consider recovery from prior infection as a vaccination equivalent or better, an assumption that makes both medical and intuitive sense, but the CDC has steadfastly maintained that everyone needs the same number of vaccinations whether they have recovered from a COVID infection or not. This view is countered by data showing that vaccinating people who have recovered from COVID results in more severe adverse events than vaccinating people who have not had COVID.

    In order to bolster the claim that people who have recovered from COVID benefit from vaccination as much as those who never had it, the CDC published a fatally flawed Kentucky-based analysis. The August 2021 study compared people who had contracted COVID twice against those who had it just once, and concluded that those who had it once were more likely to have had vaccination. But the study could have easily missed people who had two documented cases of COVID but might have had severe underlying medical conditions—such as immunosuppression—that predisposed them to multiple bouts of infection in a short period. In addition, people who had COVID once and then got vaccinated might not have sought further testing, believing themselves invulnerable to the virus. The study did not adequately address these biases. Months later, the CDC published a stronger, cohort study showing clearly that natural immunity was more robust than vaccine-induced immunity in preventing future COVID hospitalizations, and moreover, that people who survived infection were massively protected whether vaccinated or not.

    But to listen to Walensky tell it, none of these complications even exist. On Dec. 10, 2021, she told ABC News that the CDC had seen no adverse events among vaccine recipients, and denied seeing any cases of myocarditis among vaccinated kids between 5 and 11. On that same day, however, data from her own agency showed the CDC was aware of at least eight cases of myocarditis within that age group, making her statement demonstrably false.

    So why does the supposedly impartial CDC push weak or flawed studies to support the administration’s pandemic policy goals? The cynical answer is that the agency is not in fact impartial (and thus not sufficiently scientific), but captured by the country’s national political system. That answer has become harder to avoid. This is a precarious situation, as it undermines trust in federal agencies and naturally leads to a trust vacuum, in which Americans feel forced to cast about in a confused search for alternative sources of information.

    Once that trust is broken, it’s not easily regained. One way out would be to reduce the CDC’s role in deciding policy, even during a pandemic. Expecting the executive agency tasked with conducting the science itself to also help formulate national policy—which must balance both scientific and political concerns and preferences—has proven a failure, because the temptation to produce flawed or misleading analysis is simply too great. In order to firewall policymaking from science, perhaps scientific agency directors shouldn’t be political appointees at all.

    Ultimately, science is not a political sport. It is a method to ascertain truth in a chaotic, uncertain universe. Science itself is transcendent, and will outlast our current challenges no matter what we choose to believe. But the more it becomes subordinate to politics—the more it becomes a slogan rather than a method of discovery and understanding—the more impoverished we all become. The next decade will be critical as we face an increasingly existential question: Is science autonomous and sacred, or a branch of politics? I hope we choose wisely, but I fear the die is already cast.

    *  *  *

    Vinay Prasad is a hematologist-oncologist, associate professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco, and author of Malignant: How Bad Policy and Bad Evidence Harm People with Cancer.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 23:25

  • Democrats Ask YouTube To Ban Ghost Gun Instructional Videos
    Democrats Ask YouTube To Ban Ghost Gun Instructional Videos

    Readers have been well informed the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) is on a mission this election year to attack the gun industry ahead of midterms to please the Biden administration’s anti-gun lobbyist and voters. We’ve told readers the Justice Department is preparing to release a new set of rules this spring to regulate so-called “ghost guns.” 

    Ahead of the ruling, the federal government is preparing to shut down law-abiding and freedom-loving Americans who are legally (for now) assembling ghost guns in their garages or basements and publishing videos on social media. These unserialized guns spark concern with the ATF because they cannot track them. 

    Bloomberg reports Democratic Senators Richard Blumenthal, Bob Menendez, Chris Murphy, Cory Booker, and Ed Markey are calling on Silicon Valley’s Big Tech to censor anyone who posts a video of a ghost gun. The senators have explicitly called on YouTube to remove all users’ videos who post information videos on ghost guns, such as manufacturing and assembly. 

    “While we acknowledge and appreciate that YouTube has engaged with congressional staff about this problem and, in recent weeks, removed some of these videos, we are alarmed that an extensive amount of this dangerous content still exists on YouTube,” lawmakers told YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki in a letter. They said the measures YouTube have already taken are “insufficient.” 

    Responding to the senators is Maryland-based (right outside of Washington, D.C.) gun advocacy group The Machine Gun Nest said, “of course, Democratic senators would be begging for more censorship of homemade firearms videos, even though the majority of these videos do not violate YouTube’s current terms of service.” 

    “This is similar to their approach for gun control in general, constantly moving the goalposts. The removal of YouTube videos does little to stop the production of homemade firearms… Silencing or de-platforming their opposition is akin to winning the argument. Unless blocks of aluminum, CNC machines, PLA plastic, and 3D printing are banned, it’s unlikely we’ll ever see the end of homemade firearms (just maybe on liberal-owned social media platforms).”

    Other Democratic lawmakers have shown little appetite for Biden’s gun-control legislation ahead of the midterms because it’s such a controversial issue. 

    Igor Volsky, the co-founder of Guns Down America, told Reuters that Democratic Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer from New York had promised anti-gun violence lobbyist the Senate would vote on background checks legislation. Still, the bills have yet to make it to the floor. 

    “We’ve been promised by Senate Majority Leader Schumer as far back as March, April [of 2021] that there would be a vote during the summer, then it got pushed back even further. They’re using this familiar playbook of making all kinds of promises during the campaign and then fail to deliver anything when they’re in power,” Volsky said.  

    One of the main reasons why Biden’s gun-control legislation has become so unpopular among lawmakers is that progressive D.A.s across the country who favor decriminalization of petty crimes have transformed their counties and or cities into violent messes. Since the pandemic, people from both political parties have panic-bought guns and ammo as America transformed into what some describe as a ‘third world country.’ 

    The increasing support for guns has become so massive that more than 62.5% of all U.S. counties are covered by either state or county-level 2A gun sanctuary resolutions, ordinances, or laws. The number is increasing, and the data below is from September 2021. 

    … and this is why Beto O’Rourke backtracked last week from his 2019 comments that he would confiscate AR-15s. 

    So the attempt to de-platform ghost gun creators from YouTube will only drive these creators to conservative social media outlets as liberals, no pun intended, ‘shoot themselves in the foot’ by tackling such a controversial issue at the same time as their own policies have turned American cities into violent messes. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 23:05

  • North Korean Authorities Arrest Dance Tutor, Students For Practicing "Capitalist" Dance Moves: Report
    North Korean Authorities Arrest Dance Tutor, Students For Practicing “Capitalist” Dance Moves: Report

    Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

    North Korean authorities have reportedly arrested a dance tutor and several of her students for using foreign media to practice a “capitalist” dance routine, news outlet Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported on Friday, citing sources in the teacher’s neighborhood.

    A resident of the northwestern city of Pyongsong said on Jan. 31 that a dance instructor, who appears to be in her 30s, was caught teaching “foreign-style disco dances” to teenage students in Yangji-dong of Pyongsong City.

    In North Korea, anyone caught with large amounts of media from South Korea or the United States could face a life sentence or even a death penalty under the Elimination of Reactionary Thought and Culture Act enacted in December 2020.

    While enforcement of the law is often lenient around Seollal, which refers to the Korean Lunar New Year, the Anti-Socialism Inspection Group has been particularly active in operating clampdowns this year, according to a source.

    “The Anti-Socialism Inspection Group, a joint operation of the State Security Department and the police, has been intensively cracking down on people for watching South Korean movies and distributing foreign media,” the resident told RFA.

    The source, who was speaking on the condition of anonymity, claimed that officers from the Anti-Socialism Inspection Group monitored the dance tutor’s residence in plain clothes for two days before conducting a raid.

    “At the scene of the crackdown on the dance instructor that day, a USB flash drive containing foreign songs and dance videos had been plugged in, next to the flatscreen TV,” the source said, adding that the flash drive was also seized during the raid.

    In this May 11, 2016, file photo, members of the Moranbong Band, North Korea’s most popular all-female pop group formed by leader Kim Jong Un, perform during a concert where high level officials, diplomats and foreign journalists were invited to watch, as part of celebrations on the conclusion of the ruling party congress in Pyongyang, North Korea.

    The dance instructor is believed to have been working at Okchon high school in Pyongsong with a monthly salary of 3,000 won ($2.50), before deciding to open a private dance academy in her house for middle and high school students.

    According to another source, the dance tutor charges around $10 per hour for a twice-weekly dance class. Most of her students come from wealthy families, which are often spared harsh punishment for minor transgressions.

    “However, since the Central Committee has ordered that those who violate the Elimination of Reactionary Thought and Culture Act be severely punished regardless of their rank or class, the foreign dance instructor and students caught this time will not be spared from hard labor,” the source said.

    “Their parents are also likely to be punished by being forced to leave the party.”

    Meanwhile, a South Korean-based human rights group reported last year that at least seven people had been put to death for watching or distributing K-pop videos, or Korean popular music, since leader Kim Jong-un took power in 2011.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 22:45

  • Breakthrough Research Finds Link Between 'Long COVID' And Vagus Nerve Damage
    Breakthrough Research Finds Link Between ‘Long COVID’ And Vagus Nerve Damage

    New research out of Israel has just confirmed that the puzzling long-COVID phenomenon, which has caused so much fuss around the world, might be caused by damage to one of the most influential nerves in the human body.

    For those among us who aren’t familiar with the vagus nerve, it’s the 10th cranial nerve, and the longest and most complex in that category. Still, repairing nerve damage will be essential since the nerve exerts control over the gastrointestinal tract, along with the face and chest.

    New research is set to be presented at this year’s European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases investigates the connection between post-COVID syndrome, also known as long COVID, and the vagus nerve.

    This ‘pilot study’ was authored by Dr. Gemma Lladós and Dr. Lourdes Mateu of the Germans Trias i Pujol University Hospital Badalona, Spain, and its findings will be presented at the congress, taking place between April 23-26 in Lisbon.

    The study suggests that vagus nerve damage caused by SARS-CoV-2 dysfunction could be responsible for many of the symptoms of long COVID, including persistent voice problems, difficulty swallowing, dizziness, abnormally fast heart rate – aka tachycardia – low blood pressure and digestive issues.

    Here’s more on the study’s findings from the Jerusalem Post:

    Long COVID is a condition characterized by persistent and continuous health issues caused by COVID-19 after the patient has recovered from the initial infections. It can affect nearly every organ in the body, as well as cause a range of mental health and nervous system disorders. Some of the most common symptoms of long COVID include fatigue, headaches, shortness of breath, loss of smell and taste, and muscle weakness.

    In order to further understand the phenomenon, the researchers used imaging and functional tests, as well as a morphological and functional evaluation of the vagus nerve, in an assessment of long COVID patients presenting one or more signs of VND.

    Out of the 348 patients taking part in the study, two-thirds (228) had at least one symptom of VND among their long COVID symptoms. After the initial assessments were completed, further evaluations were conducted on a test group of 22 patients, all presenting VND symptoms.

    Tachycardia and dizziness were two of the most commonly-reported symptoms of long COVID.

    Of the 22 subjects analyzed, 20 were women with a median age of 44, and on average the symptoms had been present in the participants for 14 months.

    The most frequent VND symptoms presented were diarrhea (73% of subjects), tachycardia (59%), and dizziness, difficulty swallowing, and voice problems (45% each). An additional 14% of patients suffered from low blood pressure.

    All in all, 86% of the patients assessed had at least three different VND-related symptoms.

    While the findings were revelatory, opening up a new avenue of research for scientists inside and outside Israel, the dynamics driving the vagus nerve damage remain a mystery.

    As the exact cause of long COVID and the reason why symptoms present in such a varied way from patient to patient is not currently known, the study’s findings could impact and change the understanding and treatment of the condition significantly going forward.

    “In this pilot evaluation, most long COVID subjects with vagus nerve dysfunction symptoms had a range of significant, clinically-relevant, structural and/or functional alterations in their vagus nerve, including nerve thickening, trouble swallowing, and symptoms of impaired breathing,” summarized the study’s authors.

    “Our findings so far thus point at vagus nerve dysfunction as a central pathophysiological feature of long COVID.”

    But given the prevalence of long COVID this breakthrough will certainly be remembered as a relief for researchers and patients both.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 22:25

  • An American Fight In Ukraine Brings Big Costs, No Benefits
    An American Fight In Ukraine Brings Big Costs, No Benefits

    Authored by Joseph Solis-Mullen via The Mises Institute,

    If there was one thing that predictably united the usually squabbling Roman elite, it was the emergence of a perceived threat to Rome’s Mediterranean and near-continental hegemony. To some degree, however difficult to calculate, it is impossible to deny that the dissolution of the Soviet Union has been responsible for the increasing polarization of American politics. Mikhail Gorbachev predicted as much as the Cold War neared its end, saying, “Our major secret weapon is to deprive you of an enemy.” Sure enough, their mortal foe vanquished, Republicans and Democrats set about fighting for position and privilege with an unconstrained vigor that over the course of thirty years led to the violation of many of the Republic’s so-called democratic norms long before Donald Trump became the 2016 Republican nominee for president.

    It should be no surprise, then, to find Republicans and Democrats trying to recapture some of that once celebrated bipartisanship by once again uniting to battle the next round of challengers to liberal capitalist hegemony. However, in this refight of the Cold War, now cast as “democracy versus authoritarianism,” the United States is starting from a far weaker relative position than it did in, say, 1950. In 1950, for example, its industrial output constituted half the world total. Also weighing in its favor, Europe at that time was completely dependent on the Americans, both economically and militarily, and so allowed Washington to, more or less, dictate a joint foreign policy vis-à-vis the Soviet Union at its discretion.

    Both of these conditions now fail to hold, and as military, economic, and diplomatic resources become scarcer for an America fighting obvious decline, avoiding unnecessary conflicts will be crucial to preserving the country’s existing status and prosperity. While transitional friction is bound to occur, and indeed there may be things worth fighting for, Ukraine isn’t one of them

    To highlight some of the various reasons why Ukraine represents a bad investment for the American people, it is helpful to compare it with another territorial question fraught with similar peril: Taiwan. This is particularly apropos given the joint statement issued by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Chinese president Xi Jinping this past week, which more or less formalized what had to that point been a tacit assumption: they will support one another’s desired adjustments to existing territorial bounds and geopolitical institutions.

    Setting aside the fact that Taiwan is party to a still ongoing, seventy-year civil war against mainland control and that America’s act of arming the separatist province is highly provocative and injudicious, the case for doing so, in realpolitik terms, is fairly coherent from the liberal imperialist and neoconservative perspectives: Taiwan forms part of a tight chain of islands penning in the Chinese navy and threatening its maritime supply chains; it is an ethnolinguistically homogeneous, high-performing democracy, and its high-tech exports form a critical component in Western supply chains; it hasn’t been ruled by the mainland in over a century and is buttressed by a ring of allies committed to maintaining its status quo independence.

    This last point is crucial, for whereas Europe has faltered over how to handle Russian revanchism, there is no such uncertainty among the leadership of Japan, South Korea, India, the Philippines, Australia, and a host of others that China needs to be contained.

    Turning to the case of Ukraine, apart from relative European ambivalence Ukraine’s own comparative deficiencies throw the likely returns of defending it further into doubt: producing nothing the US needs, it is a corrupt and ethnolinguistically divided state, and shares a long and open border with Russia; it was part of the Soviet empire and for at least two hundred years before that had been acknowledged by various Western powers as the Russian Empire’s sphere of influence.

    While it is regular to hear those such as former US ambassador and Stanford professor Michael McFaul say that no Russian leader had ever raised any objection to North American Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion, this is verifiably false. Of course the Russians objected—that they often did so mutedly or ineffectively, as in the Balkans, was merely a function of Russia’s then relatively enfeebled state. But as early as 1995 then Russian president Boris Yeltsin issued a statement reaffirming Russia’s traditional right to a sphere of influence over its near abroad; and in 2007, following another round of NATO expansion eastward, Putin issued a memorable denunciation of the action at the Munich Security Conference, the meaning of which could not be mistaken—“Against whom is this expansion intended?” he rhetorically fulminated.

    Though the US and Russia jointly committed to observing and protecting Ukraine’s sovereignty in 1994 in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons, the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations subsequently ignored Yeltsin’s warnings of Russian prerogatives in the region and violated what many had taken to be an agreement that NATO would not expand “one inch to the east.” Following two full rounds of NATO enlargement, in 2008 the Bush administration twisted the arms of German and French leaders to get a soft public commitment about Ukraine’s future NATO membership. When the Obama administration subsequently supported the ouster of Russian ally Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, the Kremlin responded by annexing Crimea—thus safeguarding the naval base it had leased from Ukraine since the country’s independence and preventing the Kremlin’s further loss of influence in Ukraine’s domestic politics.

    Since the 2012 elections that returned Putin to power, but especially since 2014 and Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Western audiences have been inundated with a litany of articles and books devoted to explaining the inevitability of an aggressive Putin on the march. The truth is that just like the arming of Taiwan, NATO expansion and support for the unconstitutional overthrow of Ukraine’s Russian-aligned president were reckless and injudicious acts that ignore likely long-term security implications in favor of short-term geopolitical and domestic gains. Further, it is evident that the apparently looming conflict between democracy and authoritarianism is a pretense, a rhetorical construction of Western military, security, academic, media, and political elites determined to maintain Western hegemony in the face of surging challengers. For instance, one can hardly fail to note that the theocratic and patriarchal dictatorship governing Saudi Arabia continues to count itself among America’s allies—this even as it continues to wage a brutal and illegal war on neighboring Yemen. So too does support continue to flow to Egypt, Jordan, Israel—et cetera.

    Liberalism as domestic policy is great, but as a foreign policy it is arguably the worst, for it implies that only democratically elected governments are truly legitimate, thereby serving as a pretense or temptation for conflict with otherwise distant great powers, while at the same time the blatant double standard that America applies when considering its strategic partnerships, and indeed many of its own actions, erodes American credibility as a purported moral force.

    Though the Biden administration has already ordered the deployment of US troops to Eastern Europe because of the potential for war between NATO and Russia over Ukraine, and has done little else otherwise to diffuse the conflict, what US policymakers should do in the interest of the American people is obvious: stay home, save lives. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 22:05

  • Chipotle On Brink Of Guacamole Shortage After US Bans Mexican Avocados
    Chipotle On Brink Of Guacamole Shortage After US Bans Mexican Avocados

    Four days have passed since the United States suspended all imports of Mexican avocados following a federal inspector threatened at an avocado farm in the state of Michoacan, Mexico (the central hub of Mexican avocado production). Now one of the largest US Mexican fast-food chains could be on the brink of a guacamole shortage. 

    NYPost reports Chipotle Mexican Grill sounded the alarm on possible future supply disruptions of avocados in the coming weeks.

    “Our sourcing partners currently have several weeks of inventory available, so we’ll continue to closely monitor the situation and adjust our plans accordingly,” Chipotle’s CFO Jack Hartung said in a statement. He said the company is “working closely with our suppliers to navigate through this challenge.” 

    Hartung didn’t explain what supply distributions of avocados would mean for the company with nearly 3,000 US locations. The fast-food retailer was already dealing with some of the highest avocados prices, up 31% this year alone. 

    The price for a 20-pound box of avocados from the state of Michoacan was around $27. 

    Two decades of avocado prices show current prices are some of the highest ever for this time of year. And could be set to move higher, between the $30-$35 range if the import ban isn’t immediately lifted. 

    Chipotle has already raised prices to combat soaring food inflation. However, if the import ban remains in place, a shortage of guacamole could be seen as early March. There was no word if other fast food Mexican retailers such as Taco Bell, Qdoba Mexican Eats, Moe’s Southwest Grill, and Baja Fresh would experience similar issues. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 21:45

  • Are They Finally Admitting Natural Immunity?
    Are They Finally Admitting Natural Immunity?

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

    In late January, the CDC published a report that made what might have been regarded as a shocking claim. If you have had Covid, the CDC demonstrated in a chart, you gain robust immunity that is better than that of vaccination, especially concerning duration. 

    That should be nothing surprising. Brownstone has chronicled 150 studies making that point. What made this new chart different was that it came from the CDC, which has buried the point so deeply for so long as to amount to a near denial. 

    So there: the CDC says it. So nonchalant! So uneventful! 

    If people had understood this two years ago, plus been made more completely aware of the dramatic risk gradient by age and health, lockdowns would have been completely untenable. 

    The society-wide mandates and lockdowns depended on keeping the public ignorant on settled points of cell biology and immunology, plus pressuring social media companies to censor anyone who didn’t fall in line. Here we are all this time later and the truth is coming out. 

    Had the knowledge of risk gradients and immunities been in the forefront of policy makers’ minds – instead of wild fear and obsequious deference to Fauci – we would have focused on protecting the vulnerable and otherwise allowed society to function normally so that the virus would become endemic. We would not only have saved thousands of lives; we could have avoided the vast economic, educational, cultural, and public-health wreckage all around us. 

    Somehow at the time, that point was made unsayable for reasons on which we can only speculate. And yet today, the New York Times had said exactly this. In a piece by David Leonhardt called Protecting the Vulnerable, he writes:

    With the Omicron wave receding, many places are starting to remove at least some of their remaining pandemic restrictions. This shift could have large benefits. It could reduce the isolation and disruption that have contributed to a long list of societal ills, like rising mental-health problems, drug overdoses, violent crime and, as Substack’s Matthew Yglesias has written, “all kinds of bad behavior.”

    At the same time, there remain those who are vulnerable and they deserve protection: “They include the elderly and people with immunodeficiencies that put them at greater Covid risk. According to the C.D.C., more than 75 percent of vaccinated people who have died from Covid had at least four medical risk factors.”

    You can read that again: unhealthy but vaccinated people still die. What these people need is to enjoy the protection of herd immunity, the point at which the virus exhausts itself in the face of widespread immunity. 

    If you have followed this debate, you know exactly the origin of that precise idea now being pushed in part by Leonhardt: The Great Barrington Declaration. This is the document on which Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci ordered a media hit back in October 2020. It advocated nothing more than traditional public health measures as a moderate solution between lockdowns and complete negligence of the virus threat. 

    As decent as this article is, it overlooks a huge issue, namely why would non-vulnerable populations be forced to get a non-durable vaccine with risks when natural immunity is a known option? Leonhardt doesn’t go there but he should have. 

    Today, even Anthony Fauci is singing a different tune. He told the Financial Times:

    “There is no way we are going to eradicate this virus,” he said. “But I hope we are looking at a time when we have enough people vaccinated and enough people with protection from previous infection that the Covid restrictions will soon be a thing of the past.”

    Further: 

    As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of Covid-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated. There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus.”

    Again, this is straight out of the Great Barrington Declaration, almost to a word, but without acknowledgement. 

    There can be no question that early on in lockdowns, Fauci, the CDC, and the WHO all decided to bury the point that we would get to endemicity the same way we always have. 

    How did that happen? Paul Allan Offit is an epidemiologist who advises (or did advise) the Biden administration in the early days. He is not my favorite guy but, as things go, he is no Anthony Fauci. He seems sincere and intelligent. 

    Offit variously appears on podcasts. Last week, he let slip an astonishing thing. He said that early on in the pandemic, he met at the White House with Walensky, Fauci, Collins, and one other person. The topic was whether the Biden administration should recognize natural immunity to Covid — the most well-established fact about cell biology. He and one other person said absolutely. The rest said no. 

    Here is the remarkable clip.  

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Offit is fascinating in this interview because it was pretty clear to him that he was revealing something very important but he did not know whether this was going to be some kind of problem. He then proceeded to tell the story. He did not speculate about the reasons. He was smiling and laughing throughout the interview. 

    The immunity passports in place in three of the biggest American cities (though DC just repealed its own), the entire public sector, plus the attempt to impose them on the whole of the private sector, probably constitute the most invasive, aggressive, and controversial public policy since the Vietnam War draft. It all could have been fixed by a recognition of the immunological reality: the exposed and recovered are protected. That point of science was rejected by Fauci, Collins, and Walensky. The whole Biden administration went along. 

    We didn’t know until last week that this Offit meeting had even occurred. And surely this is just the tip of the iceberg. The more that time goes on, the more questions are piling up about this gang that wrecked liberty in the US after Inauguration Day 2021, a time when they could have reversed all the restrictions but instead went the other way. 

    Central to the concern here is what precisely happened in February 2020 to cause Fauci to forge plans to lock down the entire American economy for a virus that he previously said repeatedly could not be stopped. Why did he change his mind? We have plenty of evidence that his change of mind was related to his fear — real or imagined — that the pathogen was made in a lab and was leaked either deliberately or accidentally and that he would likely bear responsibility. Fauci and his friends were on burner phones for weeks and holding secret meetings. The HHS document ordering lockdowns were all forged in these weeks. 

    If the Republicans take back Congress, they are going to have a real time discovering the inner workings of the deep state here, if they find the courage to look deeply enough. That such an obvious and settled point of science became taboo for a time is truly a scandal for the ages. Now we know that it was a deliberate decision. Why? And why are we only now hearing about it, long after knowing this truth might have saved so much destruction? 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 21:25

  • Tesla Receiving Competing Bids To Build A Second Factory In China: Electrek
    Tesla Receiving Competing Bids To Build A Second Factory In China: Electrek

    “There’s this place called Shanghai…”

    And now it looks like Tesla is getting ready to double down on its reliance on China. The EV maker is reportedly getting competing bids for a second Gigafactory in the country, according to a report by electrek this week. 

    Tesla has already said it expects to announce a new factory location this year. Now, speculation is running rampant that the company could be expanding its footprint in China. There were also rumors of another potential factory in Europe, but those rumors have failed to materialize into anything tangible. 

    But there’s now apparently tangible evidence that China is in the running for a new location. Tesla reportedly has provinces competing against each other to host the company, as it did before launching its initial Gigafactory in China. 

    Liaoning Province reportedly released documents over the last week that reference a potential Tesla factory project, electrek reported: 

    On February 11, Liaoning Province’s official Wechat account, “Liaoning Release,” published an article titled “Five Grasps of Dadong District of Shenyang City, Striving to be the Pioneer in Revitalization Development.” The report stated that Shenyang City is actively preparing to implement Tesla’s vehicle project.

    The blog notes that it is anything but a done deal and that the statement translates to something “aspirational” as opposed to definitive. The report also mentions Qingdao, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen, and Jinan as potential competing locations for another Tesla factory. 

    While electrek predicts that the company’s four existing locations/planned locations (Fremont, Shanghai, Texas and Berlin) “should push Tesla’s production capacity beyond three million vehicles annually by the end of next year”, the automaker’s “greater ambitions” could be helped along with additional factories. 

    “2022 is the year we will be looking at factory locations to see what makes the most sense, possibly with some announcement by the end of this year,” Musk said during the company’s latest earnings call. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 21:05

  • The Game Theory Of Bitcoin, Part 2
    The Game Theory Of Bitcoin, Part 2

    Authored by Jeremy Garcia via Bitcoin Magazine,

    Read “A Look At The Game Theory Of Bitcoin,” the first part of this series, here.

    Thinking about the potential Bitcoin-oriented geopolitical moves to be made only shows the unlimited possibilities of Bitcoin’s game theory…

    In this article I will suggest potential routes for Bitcoin’s game theory to play out. So, what is game theory? In layman’s terms, if you are playing any game of strategy, whether it be chess, basketball, football, Battleship, Monopoly or checkers, any move you make in the game will have to be countered by your opponent. The strategic decisions that you and your opponent make will ultimately determine who wins and who loses the game. This is game theory in its most simplistic form.

    Undoubtedly, the countries with the highest inflation rates will adopt bitcoin first and will be the greatest beneficiaries. Countries like the U.S. may take a longer time, as they will still be hyperinflating their currencies with their powerful seigniorage they hold. When these superpowers do eventually adopt bitcoin, all the countries who adopted it first will get an economic boost and be lifted to a more even playing field with the most powerful countries. This is how powerful Bitcoin can be for a country who willingly accepts it.

    Small countries in Latin America, Africa and many other regions of the world whose money is collapsing will be anxiously and excitedly watching progress of bitcoin. They stand to benefit the most from it.

    All small countries will most likely continue to be bullied and belittled by the International Monetary Fund, central banks, G7 countries and other central authorities to not accept bitcoin in return for promises of “free money, protection and support.” These powerful entities will try everything in their power to prevent Bitcoin’s hope and prosperity from spreading because widespread Bitcoin adoption means their power will be gone forever. Central authorities up to this point have been ruling with fear, lies, fiat slave money and taxation. The U.S. chess pieces will continue to attack Bitcoin with lower Moody ratings and false narratives on countries who adopt her. The IMF could likely stop providing funds to the countries that accept this new technology’s power of hope and sound money. When the world sees the freedom that Bitcoin can offer them from the shackles of their dishonest rulers, many more places will embrace bitcoin. The darkness of the fiat world will be swept away and pure monetary light will shine forth from the beacons of Bitcoin.

    One of Bitcoin’s greatest game theoretic events we may see play out is when the world’s energy companies like Exxon Mobil, Saudi Aramco and others start mining bitcoin. This is an inevitability because they can convert their excess energy resources into digital energy. Imagine what a world will look like when Saudi Aramco decides to start denominating their oil prices in satoshis. The reason that this is highly likely, is twofold: The first reason is because of the unfairness of the petrodollar system, as explained in great detail by Alex Gladstein. What better unit of account to choose to replace this system than bitcoin, because no one can manipulate it? Secondly, oil companies will be able to make money through the mining of bitcoin. What oil company does not want to make more money? One of my Bitcoin brothers, @harvardhodl, believes that energy companies will become the new banks of the world. In his own words, “energy companies will create the bitcoin and have the opportunity to hold it on their balance sheet by subsidizing it through the sale of energy.” I highly regard his opinions because he works in the energy sector and has a pulse on its inner workings. I also highly recommend you listen to his excellent podcast, “Bitcoin for the People.”

    The U.S. has effectively become the first world power to allow Bitcoin to flourish. Here are the strategic moves that the U.S. has made in this chess game with Bitcoin:

    1. The U.S. adopted the internet protocol (TCP-IP) and does not regulate it’s internet companies like China. Bitcoin is the native money of the internet. Inevitably, more U.S. regulations will appear to try to control Bitcoin, but U.S. lawmakers will be “raking leaves in the wind” with their regulations because they will realize that they cannot control an open protocol, just like they can’t control the internet.

    2. The Internal Revenue Service taxes bitcoin as an intangible property, just like tangible real estate.

    3. The CFTC has deemed bitcoin to be a commodity.

    4. The U.S. stock market has allowed mining companies, like Bitfarms, Hut 8 and Marathon, to list as public companies. Core Scientific mining company will likely be next.

    5. Mining companies are quickly propagating in states like Texas, Wyoming, Washington, New York, Kentucky and Georgia. States are fighting among themselves to attract mining companies to their economies.

    6. America has more than 35% of the Bitcoin mining hash rate.

    7. Governors and senators are lobbying for Bitcoin

    8. Bitcoin has become mainstream among stars like Tom Brady, Kevin O’Leary and many other beloved and popular U.S. athletes, celebrities and stars.

    9. Major payment apps like Cash App and PayPal allow for the purchasing of bitcoin.

    10. 46 million Americans own bitcoin, or ~17% of the U.S. population.

    11. Intel and Jack Dorsey’s company, Block, are going to start designing Bitcoin mining ASICs, making mining more accessible to everyday Americans.

    12. Regular, everyday Americans will be able to buy bitcoin at 300 local community banks sometime this year.

    All of these moves are a part of Bitcoin game theory.

    The U.S. will be forced to adopt Bitcoin as a defensive move, otherwise it’s world reserve currency status could be lost. All currencies since the advent of fiat have failed and the U.S. dollar will be no different. U.S. senators, governors, presidents and the military will use bitcoin to win elections, attract Bitcoin companies to their states and the nation and fight the currency wars we currently are in. Bitcoin will serve as a defensive and offensive move to allow the U.S. to retain its status as a superpower. But Bitcoin belongs only to the world.

    Russia might adopt Bitcoin before the U.S. in a strategic move to gain a headstart against their age-old rival. If this happens, in the words of Max Keiser, “a global hash race will begin,” and that will start a chain reaction among G7 countries. The capitulation of Russia will be due to the fact that they will understand the correlation between gold and bitcoin, which they have been aggressively buying since the 2008 crisis. Russia has a lot of cheap energy and they will start to mine bitcoin when they realize how much money they can make, given this excess energy.

    Another Bitcoin game theory event could occur if Turkey decides to purchase bitcoin with it’s hyperinflated, worthless fiat currency, the lira. This will be the most important strategic move for a country who has a hyperinflated currency. The beauty of this move is that Turkey will be able to print worthless fiat to buy money that is appreciating at around 170% per year. Essentially they will be mimicking what the U.S. has been doing since 1971 — printing fiat to gain economic prosperity. The only difference in Turkey’s case is that they are not invading countries to do this — instead they are just breathing life back into their country’s failed economy by becoming huge beneficiaries of the first mover’s advantage. Turkey will start a chain reaction among all the other inflation-ridden countries to follow suit and the world will look on with utter disbelief as bitcoin rapidly gets adopted. G7 countries will nervously observe these happenings and start their capitulation even earlier.

    There will be great dissension during the transition from a fiat world to a Bitcoin world — but this will not be Bitcoin’s fault. Wars may be fought: not necessarily kinetic wars, but maybe even cyber wars. Rulers do not want to allow for Bitcoin. Why would the rulers of the world not desire a world like this? The simple answer is that in the fiat world, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. In a Bitcoin world, all people are treated fairly because the money is:

    • Open to all

    • Immutable

    • Universal

    • Ungovernable

    • Fair

    • Empowering

    Bitcoin’s game theory is an elegant, organic, phenomenal and powerful thing to see unfold.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 20:45

  • Now The US & Russia Are Holding Massive Rival Military Drills In Middle East
    Now The US & Russia Are Holding Massive Rival Military Drills In Middle East

    On top of the rival troop build-up between Russia and US-NATO forces in Eastern Europe over Ukraine, both sides are set to hold massive rival war drills further south in the Mediterranean and Middle East areas. 

    Though largely under-reported given the prominence of Ukraine headlines this week, the US Navy is currently holding what’s being called possibly the largest maritime exercise in history. A whopping 60 nations are participating across a huge expanse. Bloomberg detailed early this week: “Running through Feb. 17, the drills will cover waters off the Middle East, Southwest Asia, and East Africa. Known as both Cutlass Express 2022 and International Maritime Exercise 2022 — or IMX-CE22 — the war games will encompass nearly 10,000 personnel, 50 warships, and 80 unmanned systems.”

    Illustrative: Navy war games file image

    The multinational drills will also have an aerial component that includes drones, while there will also be unmanned experimental vehicles on the ground and in the sea. 

    It’s clear the huge exercises are focused on Iran at a time the Islamic Republic has gained more direct support from both China and Russia, both of which in the last two months have held joint exercises with Iran in regional Mideast waters.

    “As Iran becomes emboldened by its growing relationship with China and Russia, its aggression in the congested waters of the Gulf and the Indian Ocean will likely increase,” Bloomberg wrote . “Thus one goal of Cutlass Express is to tamp down Iranian adventurism at sea.”

    At the same time, on Tuesday Russia also continues flexing, this time in the Mediterranean and in Syria: “Russia has deployed MiG-31K fighter jets with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and long-range Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers to its air base in Syria for naval exercises, Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday, citing the defense ministry,” Reuters writes.

    “The aircraft dispatched to Russia’s Hmeimim air base will take part in exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, part of a surge of Russian military activity amid a standoff with the West over Ukraine and security in Europe,” the report details. 

    As part of continued Russian ‘messaging’ and flexing – no less that the head of Russia’s armed forces, defense minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu was present off Syria’s coast to inspect preparations for Russian military exercises on Tuesday…

    “Russian Defence Minister, Army General Sergei Shoigu, inspected the exercises of the Russian Navy in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, conducted as part of a series of naval exercises in operationally important areas of the World Ocean, as well as in the waters of the seas adjacent to Russia,” the defense ministry was cited as saying. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 20:25

  • Bovard: Free Crack Pipes? Time To Pardon Tommy Chong
    Bovard: Free Crack Pipes? Time To Pardon Tommy Chong

    Authored by Jim Bovard via The Libertarian Institute,

    Conservative publications have accused the Biden administration of planning to distribute $30 million worth of free crack pipes and other paraphernalia as part of its effort to achieve “racial equity” among “underserved communities.” The original notice for federal grants included provisions to pay for “safe smoking kits/supplies” but the Biden administration insists that no federal funds will be specifically used to purchase crack pipes. But taxpayers will get screwed anyway thanks to federal distribution of free condoms under the same program.

    While “harm reduction” is the stated goal of  that federal program, the Biden administration continues to ignore the vast harms caused by federal drug prohibitions, despite record numbers of deaths from drug overdoses last year.

    The latest federal drug war farce should be a reminder of one of the biggest drug war publicity stunts of this century. On the eve of George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq, Attorney General John Ashcroft announced the most decisive federal attack ever made on pipes and bowls often used for smoking marijuana, tobacco, and other substances. Ashcroft bewailed, “The illegal drug paraphernalia industry has invaded the homes of families across the country without their knowledge.” Ashcroft did not offer any evidence that pipe sellers, unlike government agents, were planting evidence in people’s homes.

    Operation Pipe Dreams involved more than 1,200 federal agents conducting raids in Pennsylvania, Texas, Oregon, Iowa, California, and Idaho. Fifty-five people and 10 companies were indicted in the biggest attack on glass bowls in American history. The feds confiscated 124 tons of what was alleged to be drug paraphernalia, including plastic baggies that could potentially be used to package illicit drugs.

    Ashcroft’s prosecutors used a rarely enforced 1980s laws that criminalized the sale of drug paraphernalia. Seizure fever permeated the bong attack. U.S. Deputy Marshal Dale Ortmann commented, “This was the biggest push in asset seizures that I’ve seen in eight years.” U.S. Deputy Marshal Gary Richards noted that, thanks to cash grabbed from businesses that were raided, “We have access to money that will pay for inventory and storage fees” for the 124 tons of goodies. Apparently, this was the only “boondoggle test” that Justice Department masterminds applied to this case.

    The biggest catch of Operation Pipe Dreams was 64-year-old Tommy Chong, the older half of the legendary, Grammy Award-winning comic duo Cheech and Chong, who lampooned drug warriors from the 1960s to the 1980s. Their movie “Up in Smoke” was some of the best political-cultural humor of the 1970s. Chong’s company, Chong Glass, sold ornate bongs that cost hundreds of dollars over the Internet; a Los Angeles art gallery had an exhibit of Chong’s top-of-the-line products. The Drug Enforcement Administration set up a phony shop in Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania, and ordered bongs and other material from Chong Glass and then nailed Chong for shipping paraphernalia across state lines.

    The DEA hit Chong’s Pacific Palisades, California, house at 5:30 a.m., while Chong and his wife were asleep. Chong later commented, “It was a full-on raid. Helicopters, them bangin’ on the door. They come in with loaded automatic weapons, flak jackets, helmets, visors, about 20 agents. They bust in the house. They took all my cash, took out my computers, and they took all the glass bongs they could find.”

    Chong’s arrest sparked ridicule far and wide, including barbs from both David Letterman and Jay Leno. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette snipped, “With the nation on Orange Alert at the time, the only bearded men most Americans wanted to see in custody were members of al-Qaida.” Though Chong controlled much less than 1 percent of the national bong market, busting him guaranteed the feds massive publicity.

    Chong continued doing his comedy routine pending his trial. When asked his views on Operation Pipe Dreams, he replied, “I feel pretty sad, but it seems to be the only weapons of mass destruction they’ve found this year.”

    On September 11, 2003, the second anniversary of the infamous attacks, Chong was sentenced to nine months in federal prison, fined $20,000 for selling bongs and other drug paraphernalia, and forced to surrender $103,514 in cash to the feds. Chong’s lawyer asked for probation, considering that this was Chong’s first offense and that it was a nonviolent crime. U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan (a Bush appointee) urged a harsh sentence, in part because of Chong’s history of “trivializing law enforcement” with his humor. If Operation Pipe Dreams did not deserve to be trivialized, then the United States is a theocracy, with worship of government the official religion.

    Chong was also forced to promise the judge that he would not profit from his arrest and prosecution. This effectively destroyed Chong’s freedom of speech to discuss his case in future comedy performances. At least in Chong’s case, mocking the feds would be a federal offense.

    Getty Images

    Even though Chong was not the biggest player in the paraphernalia game, he received a harsher sentence than any of the other people who had been convicted in Operational Pipe Dreams at the time of his trial. Chong’s partner, Cheech Marin, derided the prosecutors: “These are the same kinds of simpletons we were fighting when we made Up in Smoke, in terms of a repressive administration.  That Tommy  Chong  is going to prison for this is a total miscarriage of  justice. The administration should hang its head in shame.”

    In a 2005 interview with the Los Angeles Weekly, Chong observed, “The American justice system is just riddled with lies and inconsistencies.” He explained his prosecution: “They just wanted to show the entertainment world that we’re vulnerable. ‘You do something that we don’t like, you’re going to end up in jail.’ That’s the message they put out.” Chong was philosophical about his imprisonment: “I call this the Tsunami Government. This government is just like the tsunami. It’s coming in, it’s going to wreak havoc and desolation, and then it’ll go out. It’ll disappear. So we just have to live through it.”

    The principle behind Operation Pipe Dreams was that federal agents have the right to destroy the lives of anyone who does something that politicians disapprove. This is the same toxic principle that has been used to arrest more than ten million of nonviolent marijuana smokers since the Reagan era.

    Regardless of what sort of “harm reduction” handouts the Biden administration distributes, the least Biden can do is pardon Chong (who served his prison sentence long ago) and any other nonviolent offender whose record is stained by a convict for distributing paraphernalia. It would be far better for Biden to call an end to the disastrous federal drug war. But we are unlikely to see such courage or wisdom from a man who, during his decades in the Senate, was renowned for championing punitive crime bills to impose his favorite cure: “Lock the S.O.B.s up!”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 20:05

  • Little Known Fund Manager's 11 Year Bet On Avis Nets Him $2 Billion And His Investors 35% Returns For 2021
    Little Known Fund Manager’s 11 Year Bet On Avis Nets Him $2 Billion And His Investors 35% Returns For 2021

    Little known hedge fund manager Karthik Sarma is the $2 billion story that no one has every heard of – until this week.

    This week, Bloomberg profiled how 47 year old Sarma, who runs SRS Investment Management from a “modest” home he shares with his sister and her family in a New Jersey suburb, beat well known hedge fund managers thanks to an “11 year old wager on Avis Budget Group” that paid off as the stock rocketed 456% in 2021. 

    The fund, which has about $8 billion under management, owned about 50% of its Avis position using common stocks and swaps, which resulted in Sarma’s investors seeing a 35% gain in 2021. Sarna’s personal net worth “roughly tripled” to $3 billion as a result of the bet.

    He was topped on Bloomberg’s 2021 hedge fund rankings only by Citadel’s Ken Griffin and TCI Fund Management’s Chris Hohn, Bloomberg reported this week. 

    Sarma runs his fund by using a “robust short book” while avoiding hefty leverage. He used to work for Tiger Global Management founder Chase Coleman, whose hedge fund fell from Bloomberg’s rankings due to market volatility. 

    He usually holds about 25 stocks on the long side and 35 stocks on the short side. This makes his net exposure “generally lower” than peers, the report says. He invested in Avis because he had “taken a long-term view that companies able to manage fleets of cars and trucks in a cost-effective manner will be extremely valuable in the future of human transport.”

    He came to the U.S. to get a master’s degree in operations research from Princeton University before joining Tiger Global in 2001. There, he was considered the firm’s “most talented non-partner”, Bloomberg wrote. He went off on his own 5 years later and started his own firm. Initially, he made money on bets 

    Names like Viking Global Investor’s Andreas Halvorsen and Melvin Capital Management’s Gabe Plotkin were also absent from the list. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 19:45

  • The Zombification Of The Economy
    The Zombification Of The Economy

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    Another hotter than expected CPI print in January put even more pressure on the Federal Reserve to do something about inflation. Suddenly, there is talk of a 50 basis point interest rate hike at the next FOMC meeting.

    But “doing something” is easier said than done, particularly in this zombie economy.

    The Fed has gotten itself into a tight spot. Raising rates will expose another major economic problem that lurks just under the surface.

    The world is buried in debt.

    Economist Daniel Fernández Méndez described the 21st century as the “decade of debt.”

    “And if things continue the way they are, it could well be called the century of the great debt default.”

    We’ve talked a lot about the massive levels of debt piled up by the federal government during the pandemic. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. In 2021, US consumer debt grew at the fastest pace in five years. And then we have corporate debt and the proliferation of “zombie companies.”

    Could this lead to a “Minsky Moment” — the point at which it becomes impossible for debtors to pay off their debts?

    Daniel Fernández Méndez thinks it could.

    The following was originally published by the Mises Wire. The opinions expressed are the authors and don’t necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold. 

    More and more economists and finance specialists are warning of the potential arrival of a new “Minsky moment.” The last time this term was used with such conviction was in 2008 at the onset of the Great Recession. It seems that 2021–22 could have some parallels with the world’s last severe recession.

    The Twenty-First Century: The Century of Debt

    Up to now, the twenty-first century could be called the century of debt, and if things continue the way they are, it could well be called the century of the great debt default. At the beginning of the century, the extremely low interest rates promoted by central banks in practically the entire developed world caused a frenzy of private credit creation and a gigantic financial and real estate bubble that exploded in 2008 with dire consequences for the world economy.

    Central banks, heavily pressured by politicians, redoubled their commitment to low interest rates, causing public overindebtedness to a degree unprecedented in times of peace. In 2020, when the growth model based on the accumulation of public debt and low interest rates seemed to start to weaken, the COVID-19 recession arrived. The worldwide excess of public spending in 2020 has not been corrected, and it does not appear it will be corrected any time soon. The new public debt is adding fuel to the fire. And the accumulation of it (and also private debt, especially that issued by companies) could be reaching the point of no return.

    Global debt reached $200 trillion at the beginning of 2011, while global [gross domestic product] GDP was $74 trillion (275 percent debt/GDP). In the second quarter of 2021, global debt reached almost $300 trillion with GDP of $83.9 trillion (330 percent debt/GDP).

    Figure 1: Global debt and global GDP

    What Is a Minsky Moment?

    Hyman Minsky was a post-Keynesian economist who developed a very insightful taxonomy of financial relationships. According to him, the finances of a capitalist economy can be summarized in terms of exchanges of present money for future money.1 The relationship proposed by Minsky is as follows:

    1. Present money is invested in companies that will generate money in the future.

    2. When companies make a profit, they return the money to investors from their profits.

    Income or profit expectations determine the following:

    1. The flow of present money to companies

    2. The price of financial assets such as bonds and stocks (financial assets that articulate the exchange of present money for future money)

    Present business income, meanwhile, determines the following:

    1. Whether expectations about past income (included in already-issued financial assets) have been met

    2. How to modify expectations about future income (and therefore, indirectly, the flow of present money to companies and the price of financial assets issued in the present)

    Minsky articulates three possible types of income-debt relationship in companies (although he extends the analysis to all economic agents):

    1. Hedge. Hedge finance companies can meet all of their debt obligations with their cash flows. That is, their inflows exceed their outflows. Such companies are stable.

    2. Speculative. Speculative companies can pay the interest on their debt but cannot pay down the principal. They are forced to constantly refinance. These companies are unstable, as any minor problem can bankrupt them.

    3. Ponzi. Ponzi companies do not generate enough income to pay down the principal or pay the interest. They must sell assets or issue debt just to pay the previous interest on their debt. They end up defaulting on the new debt sooner or later. Their chances of survival are minimal.

    According to Minsky, when things are going well in an economy and income expectations are met, corporations begin to err on the side of optimism and excessively increase their debt. This causes a shift from a stable situation (in which hedge companies are the norm) to an unstable one (in which Ponzi companies are the norm). In a Ponzi situation, the economy will experience widespread defaults and a financial and economic crisis.

    An economy is said to be in a Minsky moment if debtors are unable to pay down their debts (a speculative situation) or unable to pay the interest and the principal (a Ponzi situation).

    Minsky was partly right. He accounts for a common truth of financial crises: issuance of debt was abused in previous periods. As a caveat, though, taking into account monetary and financial state interventions—mainly but not solely those of central banks—perhaps the cause of this degradation of debt quality is not a market problem, or at least not exclusively. The crisis may be exogenous to the market (caused by public authorities) or endogenous but amplified by exogenous factors (public authorities contribute to it).

    The Economy Has Been Zombifying for Two Decades

    As already discussed, global debt has grown more rapidly than the global economy over the last ten years, so it seems credit quality has indeed degraded. The income needed to pay off debt is growing much more slowly than the debt itself.

    An additional piece of evidence to support this argument is the increase in the number of “zombie companies.” A zombie company is one whose earnings before interest and taxes are less than or equal to its debt service (it coincides exactly with Minsky’s definition of speculative and Ponzi companies, taken together). A zombie is a wonderful metaphor because a zombie moves and appears to be alive but is in fact dead. A zombie company also moves and appears to be alive—it generates activity, employs workers, and produces goods—but in reality is (almost) dead. It is (almost) certain to die given its inability to pay its debt with its own means. The number of zombie companies has increased exponentially in the United States in recent years, according to a Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report. Furthermore, the probability of remaining in a zombie state has increased. And in fact, zombification is a reality in almost every part of the world.

    Figure 2: The rise of corporate zombies

    Source: Banerjee & Hofmann. Note: The various layers of financial intermediation hide this underlying relationship as if it were behind a veil.

    Figure 3: Zombie shares by country

    Source: Banerjee & Hofmann. Note: The BIS definition of a zombie company is even more restrictive than ours. It requires, in addition to having an interest coverage ratio lower than 1, a Tobin’s Q lower than the average for two consecutive years (meaning the market values these companies lower than their competition).

    However, the BIS data end in 2017. What has COVID-19’s impact been on an already-zombified global economy?

    COVID-19 Hit a Zombie Economy: Now What?

    The most recent data on company interest coverage (financing cost to earnings) are from the Fed and refer to the North American economy. In the figure below we can see that the median coverage ratio began to fall at the end of 2018, which is consistent with our hypothesis that the economy’s growth model, based on cheap debt, was beginning to run its course. The pandemic has hammered the median coverage ratio. Although the ratio has been recovering since the second half of 2020, it is currently at the level seen in 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession.

    Even more revealing is the interest coverage ratio of the companies in the first quartile (that is, the 25 percent of companies with the lowest ratio). This indicator has been below 1 since 2012; in other words, zombification has accelerated since then. Keep in mind that a ratio lower than 1 means that a company’s profits are insufficient for it to pay its financing costs (it is a Ponzi company).

    The interest coverage ratio for companies in the twenty-fifth percentile reached almost 0 just before the pandemic (their profits had almost disappeared). Since then, the ratio has been negative (these companies recorded losses). Observe that these companies have not recovered, while companies in other quartiles have. Their ratio is currently just above −1, which means that their losses (before interest) are nearly equal to their financing cost. This is a total disaster. At least 25 percent of US companies are financially dead.

    Valuation of Zombified Companies

    One would expect that these companies would begin to go bankrupt, and this is indeed what is happening. According to the Fed, 2.5 times more zombie companies (as a fraction of all companies) went bankrupt in 2020 than in 2019 (<2 percent in 2019 and around 4.5 percent in 2020).

    Curiously, the zombie companies that survived 2020 are seeing their valuation skyrocket. Their aggregate value already exceeds $6 trillion, while in 2019 it was close to $2 trillion.2

    Figure 5: Total enterprise value with [earnings before interest and taxes] EBIT less than interest expense

    Conclusion

    Markets are now extremely complacent. The fundamentals do not seem to justify their optimism. Zombie companies, which were already a problem in 2019, have not only not been killed off but have multiplied. The zombie apocalypse could be closer than we imagine, and we do not have enough Will Smiths in the world to save us.

    In a future article, we will analyze the impact of restrictive monetary policy (tapering) on zombie companies.

    *  *  *

    Legal notice: the analysis contained in this article is the exclusive work of its author, the assertions made are not necessarily shared nor are they the official position of the Francisco Marroquín University.

    Originally published at Universidad Francisco Marroquín’s Market Trends.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 19:25

  • Elon Musk Donated Nearly $6 Billion To Charity In November 2021, Filings Reveal
    Elon Musk Donated Nearly $6 Billion To Charity In November 2021, Filings Reveal

    Elon Musk donated 5,044,000 shares of Tesla to charity from November 19th to November 29th of 2021, new filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission show. It marks one of the largest charitable donations in history. 

    The massive $5.74 billion donation went to an unnamed charity, multiple media sources reported on Tuesday morning. It occurred around the same time Musk traded jabs with the United Nations about whether or not $6 billion would help solve world hunger. 

    Musk said last year he would donate $6 billion to fight world hunger…if the UN could prove that much money would save tens of millions of lives. Musk was responding to director of the UN’s World Food Programme, who told CNN last year that $6 billion from people like Musk and Jeff Bezos could “help 42 million people” who he said “were literally going to die if we don’t reach them”. 

    In a Tweet response, Musk challenged the UN’s statement, saying that if the World Food Programme could provide him “open sourced accounting” on how the $6 billion would be used, he would sell Tesla stock “right now and do it”.

    Recall, Musk also sold more than $16 billion in stock late last year after posting a Twitter poll asking his followers if he should sell stock in the company. Musk claimed the sales were to help offset taxes that would amount to more than $11 billion due to stock options set to expire in 2022. 

    Musk’s foundation, The Musk Foundation, has offered up large, eight-figure gifts in recent years, according to Bloomberg. 

    Bob Lord, an associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies, told Reuters: “His tax benefit would be huge. He’d save between 40% and 50% of the $5.7 billion in tax, depending on whether he could take the deduction against his California income and he’d avoid the gains tax he would have to pay if he sold the stock.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 19:05

  • Why Did Masks Stop Working In Japan And South Korea?
    Why Did Masks Stop Working In Japan And South Korea?

    Authored by Ian Miller via Unmasked Substack,

    In some ways Japan and South Korea might be at least partially to blame for the multiyear long obsession with masking in most of the Western world.

    Many governments, especially in the United States, appeared to believe that the early “success” of countries on the Asian continent was due to a widespread cultural acceptance of masking.

    That misguided assumption helped direct public health agencies, politicians, school boards and media outlets to shred dozens of high quality pre-Covid studies on masking and forcefully enact and enforce measures that were guaranteed to fail.

    Once committed, they had no choice but to ignore the obvious global failure of masks and mask mandates and continue their disproven assertions that masks could end the pandemic in a matter of weeks or reduce infections dramatically.

    We’ve since witnessed the anti-science crowd endlessly promoting masking and interventions, with the predictably disastrous results in the Western countries being waved off as a function of poor compliance.

    “The reason it’s not working is because people aren’t complying with the mandates,” they’d say, contrary to overwhelmingly consistent survey data that measured mask usage in the 90-98% range across most of the United States and Europe.

    To excuse their failure, anti-data activists would point to the Asian countries as “proof” that if we all just masked a little harder, we could bring Covid under control immediately.

    Japan

    Few aspects of Covid have been more consistent than the media’s love affair with Japan’s mask culture.

    It’s been a repetitive theme. One survey found that 80% of Japanese people are likely to continue with masks after Covid-19 subsides.

    And perhaps even more incredibly:

    more than 90 percent of whom considered a face mask to be an asset rather than a burden, and feel comfortable with one on.

    90 percent think of masks as an asset! Mind boggling isn’t it?

    One website has gone so far as to create an etiquette guide for how to behave in Japan during the pandemic. This section explains that the expectation in Japan is for high-quality masking inside and outside:

    You will be expected to wear a mask when indoors or on public transport, as well as in outdoor spaces where you encounter other people, such as in the streets and in urban parks.

    For your mask to function correctly, ensure that your nose and mouth are covered and that there are no gaps. Various types of masks are used in Japan, but surgical masks made of non-woven fabric are the most common and recommended.

    But it’s not just masking; you’re also expected to, and I cannot believe this is real, talk quietly.

    “In restaurants, on public transportation and in other closed spaces, avoid talking in a loud voice, especially when not wearing a mask, e.g. during meals.”

    Don’t speak in a loud voice? Who comes up with this nonsense?

    You may not remember, but during the Summer Olympics hosted by Japan, cases in the country skyrocketed, leading to spectator-free games.

    And just as with nearly everywhere else on earth, the surge peaked and dropped within a few months and reached extremely low levels.

    Equally as unsurprising was the media rush to credit masks and vaccine rates with the dramatic decline, exemplified by an article from the Associated Press:

    Almost overnight, Japan has become a stunning, and somewhat mysterious, coronavirus success story.

    Some possible factors in Japan’s success include a belated but remarkably rapid vaccination campaign, an emptying out of many nightlife areas as fears spread during the recent surge in cases, a widespread practice, well before the pandemic, of wearing masks and bad weather in late August that kept people home.

    Ah yes, the widespread practice of wearing masks. No mention of the statistical impossibility of masks causing the decline when they were worn before the surge started.

    Obviously, given the percentage of people happily complying with masking, Japan must be a Covid-free paradise, right?

    Let’s check!

    Oh no. That is not great.

    When the story was published on October 18th, Japan was averaging 518 cases each day. By mid-February, that number was 94,491, an increase of 18,142%.

    I wonder if there’ll be any new stories implying that masks don’t work because the curve went up over 18,000% a few months after they tried to credit mask wearing with bringing it down.

    But that’s just one part of the story — Japan also has an exceptionally high vaccination rate, which, naturally, was mentioned as a possible explanation for the “bewildering” decline.

    Many credit the vaccination campaign, especially among younger people, for bringing infections down. Nearly 70 percent of the population is fully vaccinated.

    Well obviously that percentage has only increased over time, so let’s see how effective their high vaccination rate has been in preventing another surge:

    As always, the media completely ignores the impact of seasonal effects on Covid spread. One of the easiest ways to visualize this is by overlaying cases from year to year:

    It’s important to note that numbers on each axis are vastly different to allow for better comparison, but it’s immediately obvious that increases and decreases have happened within weeks of each other — the 2021-2022 curve is essentially slightly delayed from 2020-2021. With that in mind, it’s clear that we would expect cases in Japan to peak in a matter of days. 

    And the top of the orange curve indicates that’s likely to happen, right on schedule.

    This isn’t that complicated! The curve went down in October 2021 because it’s a period of low respiratory virus spread in Japan. Based on these numbers, we can expect that Japan’s curve might see another bump in late spring, followed by a more substantial surge in late summer, and a huge increase in the winter.

    These surges have happened in predictable patterns, regardless of how dedicated they are to masks, regardless of how many people view masks as an “asset” and will continue wearing them for an endemic virus. And also despite the high vaccination rates that Japan has achieved.

    Japan, despite their low testing, is even reporting similar rates to other countries that have unsuccessfully attempted to control Covid with masking:

    How does the media keep getting this wrong? How do they keep ignoring reality and maintaining an easily disproven narrative?

    South Korea

    It’s important to mention that the media does their best to credit other interventions, not just masks and vaccination rates, when attempting to explain the apparent success of Asian countries in combating the Coronavirus.

    They also frequently praise the objectionable and nonsensical practice of “contact tracing.”

    Just a few days after the AP’s missive about Japan, The Conversation published an article (don’t worry, they also credit masks) explaining that South Korea’s use of digital technology, contact tracing and quarantines to slow the spread of the coronavirus led to the country’s low case rates.

    To combat Covid and future pandemics, governments need to heed the lessons of these social interventions and not just the technological ones. South Korea teaches us that high-tech solutions can help protect against disease, but these work together with social interventions – interventions that the UK has not used as effectively.

    They continued:

    Key to this has been quarantine measures for travelers arriving in the country, which were introduced very swiftly, and the country’s highly effective test-trace-isolate system. This carefully designed process provides local support for those in isolation, while monitoring them and sanctioning non-compliance.

    Yes, mobile phone data and other forms of surveillance have been used to trace people who might have the virus. But once a positive case is confirmed, it is human intervention that ensures those people don’t spread the virus further.

    There are several mind-blowing statements contained in these paragraphs, but my personal favorite is the hand-waving dismissal of “mobile phone data and other forms of surveillance” being used to trace Covid cases, as if that’s a totally normal and acceptable function of government that should be encouraged.

    Allow me to submit a slight edit to their work:“We as a society need to eliminate any semblance of personal freedom and right to privacy in order to submit to the government’s desire to pretend they can control the spread of an endemic respiratory virus.”

    Even if this worked, which we’ll soon see it most definitely does not, how can this be a remotely acceptable policy? How can anyone believe that this is a trade-off worth making? How can anyone think this technology will be discarded after Covid “ends,” whatever that means for an endemic virus?

    As we’ve seen, governments and media have rapidly increased their calls for censorship — what’s to prevent them from using mobile phone surveillance to “isolate” those who share views they find “dangerous misinformation” until they can be rehabilitated into promoting “accurate” opinions?

    None of this is remotely defensible ethically, but at least there could be a case made that it worked to help stop Covid — except The Conversation forgot about winter.

    Cases have risen 2,800% since the article was published, despite South Korea’s dedication to testing, surveillance, isolation, mask mandates and vaccine passports.

    How are we still pretending we can control Covid with layered interventions, with “Swiss Cheese Models of Pandemic Defense,” with following the example of Asian countries?

    The collapse of Japan and South Korea’s pandemic response is yet another nail in the Covid mitigation coffin for those trying to credit masking and interventions with slowing or stopping the spread of a highly infectious respiratory virus.

    For nearly two years now, we’ve seen media outlets attempt to allocate credit to interventions by ignoring the seasons. They purposefully wait until the curve goes down to report that masking in addition to their favored intervention of the week is responsible for controlling the surge — ignoring that the same interventions existed before the surge started.

    South Korea and Japan have not had strict lockdowns, yet had better outcomes than most European or North American countries. However, it’s not due to masking or interventions, it’s likely been in large part due to cross exposure, as this study illustrates.

    Yet that’s not a story the media wants to share, because they’ve fully committed to the indefinite pretense that human intervention is the most important factor in the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

    Masks and interventions MUST work, because their preferred, trusted experts and politicians, say they do. Evidence and data be damned.

    Well…maybe the pretense won’t be quite so indefinite.

    I’m expecting my apology any day now.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 18:45

  • Single-Family Home Rents Surge At Fastest Pace Ever
    Single-Family Home Rents Surge At Fastest Pace Ever

    New data from CoreLogic Inc. shows rental prices for single-family homes soared to an all-time high in 2021. This comes as on-time rent collections deteriorates as households are pressured by soaring shelter, food, and energy inflation. 

    CoreLogic’s new report says rent prices for single-family homes increased by 7.8% in 2021, a record high. In December, rent prices jumped 12% year over year for the month. 

    Soaring rents for single-family homes come as on-time rent collections are rapidly deteriorating. 

    Only 92% of renter households had made their rent payment for December by the end of December, the lowest percentage since April 2019, down from 93.8% in December 2020, and down from 95.9% in December 2019.

    What stands out is the down-trend over those 33 months, interrupted by the months when the big stimulus checks poured into household coffers. – Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com 

    Without stimmy checks, as shown above by Richter, increasing rent prices and soaring inflation, in general, will continue to pressure household finances. With inflation climbing at its highest pace in four decades in January, such cost pressures sent consumer sentiment to its lowest level in more than a decade last week. 

    The inverse relationship of soaring costs and declining on-time rent is on full display. It only suggests more discontent for the Biden administration as polling data plunges ahead of the midterms. 

    But don’t worry, the Federal Reserve is hard at work as hawktard comments from St.Louis Fed’s Jim Bullard are basically attempting to spark a mini-recession to cool inflationary headwinds. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 18:25

  • The Unstated Scandal: The CIA Collected Info On President Trump
    The Unstated Scandal: The CIA Collected Info On President Trump

    Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

    On Friday, Special Counsel John Durham filed a motion relating to a defense firm’s potential conflict of interest in the Michael Sussmann case. The conflict itself is certainly intriguing, with Sussmann’s lawyers at Latham & Watkins LLP (Latham) having represented potential witnesses in the case, including Perkins Coie, former Perkins Coie (and Clinton Campaign general counsel) Marc Elias, the Hillary Clinton Campaign, and Hillary for America.

    The issue that made more noise, however, was Durham’s disclosure that Rodney Joffe – a contractor with deep ties to the Clintons, and what appears to be a deep hatred for Trump – had exploited Executive Office of the President of the United States data he obtained from a “sensitive arrangement” with the U.S. Government to damage President Trump. Here is our initial post on the topic.

    And here is the talented Lee Smith providing a great explanation on Tucker:

    Yet the data from the Executive Office of the President wasn’t all that Joffe had obtained. He also collected domain name system (DNS) internet traffic pertaining to a healthcare provider; Trump Tower; and Trump’s Central Park West apartment building.

     Yesterday, February 14, Sussmann’s attorney’s disputed the Durham filing – to an extent. They said Sussmann provided the CIA with Executive Office of the President data from “when Barack Obama was president.”

    I have a theory about this.

    If Sussmann’s attorney is telling the truth (never a given), then we suspect the Executive Office of the President data included that from the 74 day the Trump transition period (between the November 8, 2016 election and the January 20, 2017 inauguration) – which would still be spying on the incoming Trump Administration.

    For background, the Executive Office of the President includes a number of Executive councils (National Security Council, Office of Management and Budget, etc.) that support the President. It is involved generally in the transition from one president to the next.

    What about the data involved with the Trump transition? On August 1, 2016, Trump reached an agreement with the General Services Administration (GSA) “for telecommunication and internet technology services for both the pre- and post-election transition period.”1 This is the agreement. I wonder if Joffe’s company, Neustar, helped the GSA in the execution of that agreement. Maybe. Maybe not. I’m not sure it matters, as Neustar already had an agreement to provide “DNS resolution services” to the Office of the Executive of the President.

    Regardless, the “transition theory”, if we can call it that, matches the timeline in the Sussmann indictment, which states that Joffe and his team continued to target “Trump-related computer networks” in late 2016 and early 2017. And it makes sense in context of Sussmann’s conduct, as Sussmann tried to put this information out there in late December 2016.

    Anyway, back to the point of this post.

    According to Durham, Joffe and his associates manipulated that data to make it seem like Trump, and those in Trump’s world, had suspicious interactions with internet protocol (IP) addresses affiliated with a Russian mobile phone provider. They then combined those allegations with the Alfa Bank hoax materials (the subject of Sussmann’s Fall 2016 meeting with then-FBI General Counsel James Baker).

    This damaging information, purporting to demonstrate at least circumstantial evidence of Trump/Russia collusion, was presented on February 9, 2017 to what Durham describes as U.S. Government “Agency-2.”

    That agency was the CIA. We know for sure that Sussmann met with the CIA General Counsel. We learned in January 2022 that, if Sussmann is to be believed, there were two other CIA employees at that meeting.

    In other words, a Clinton supporting contractor (Joffe) obtained sensitive information (perhaps unlawfully) about the Office of the President of the United States (Trump), manipulated the information, passed it to a DNC/Clinton lawyer (Sussmann), who then delivered it to the CIA.

    All on American soil.

    This is important because the CIA is generally prohibited from conducting domestic operations. The FBI explains:

    “The CIA collects information only regarding foreign countries and their citizens. Unlike the FBI, it is prohibited from collecting information regarding ‘U.S. Persons,’ a term that includes U.S. citizens, resident aliens, legal immigrants, and U.S. corporations, regardless of where they are located.”

    In the CIA’s own words:

    “The FBI is responsible for coordination of clandestine collection of foreign intelligence through human sources or human-enabled means and counterintelligence activities inside the United States.”

    Yet when it came to Trump, here was the CIA doing what it is prohibited: “collecting information regarding U.S. persons” inside the United States.2 (See also the CIA’s bulk surveillance program.)

    A top CIA official answered the call of a DNC lawyer who alleged that these suspicious internet “lookups” proved “that Trump and/or his associates were using supposedly rare, Russian-made wireless phones in the vicinity of the White House and other locations.” Accusations that were baseless, according to Durham.

    In other words, the secret police was more than willing to accept politically damaging information against the President. I’m curious what they did with it. It seems naive to think the information stayed at the CIA. I bet it was passed onto the FBI or DOJ, who may have used it to further the Trump/Russia investigation.

    The scandal we are seeing come to light just isn’t about Hillary and Joffe and Sussmann. It’s not limited to Fusion GPS, FISA abuse, or Igor Danchenko.

    It’s also about the willingness of U.S. intelligence to target the President. And on that topic, the CIA has some serious questions to answer.

    *  *  *

    1. Democracy Forward Found. v. U.S. Gen. Servs. Admin., 393 F. Supp. 3d 45, 48 (D.D.C. 2019).

    2. I can imagine the lazy pro-CIA rebuttals to this argument. They all ignore the dangers of CIA operations inside the U.S. and dismiss the jurisdiction of the various intelligence agencies. And let us be clear that CIA operations include collecting information.

    Subscribe

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 02/15/2022 – 18:05

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Feb 15

Today’s News 15th February 2022

  • Viral Anti-Xi Article Reveals CCP Infighting That May Derail Xi's Bid For 3rd Term, Analysts Say
    Viral Anti-Xi Article Reveals CCP Infighting That May Derail Xi’s Bid For 3rd Term, Analysts Say

    By Nicole Hao of the Epoch Times

    An article criticizing Chinese leader Xi Jinping was allowed to go viral in mainland China, which analysts say reflects the intense struggle among different factions in the Chinese Communist Party and its impact on Xi’s ruling.

    Chinese leader Xi Jinping declares the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games open at the National Stadium in Beijing, China on Feb. 4, 2022. (Ju Peng/AFP via Getty Images)

    China experts have said that Xi might not secure a third term, which will be revealed at the CCP’s Party Congress this fall, although Xi amended the Party’s constitution successfully in 2018 to remove term limitations.

    “The 40,000-word long article listed mistakes that Xi Jinping has made in politics, economy, and diplomacy. It’s a summary of Xi’s ruling over the past nine years,” Li Hengqing, a China expert at the Washington Institute for Information and Strategy, told the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times on Feb. 8.

    “After 2018, we all said that there’s no force to stop Xi from taking a third term. Now, we can see that the situation isn’t simple, and it’s unclear whether he can obtain it,” Li added.

    He emphasized: “The article circulated broadly inside and outside of China. Even several friends from mainland China forwarded it to me … It shows that the CCP factions against Xi are fighting to stop Xi from continuing in office.”

    Xi became Chinese leader in November 2012, and won his second term in October 2017. The previous version of the CCP constitution ruled that each leader could only take two terms, which would have seen Xi retire in 2022. The amendment of the constitution paved the road to allow Xi to rule the country beyond the two terms—if he can secure support from the rest of the Party leadership.

    Chinese leader Xi Jinping is seen on a TV screen speaking remotely at the opening of the WEF Davos Agenda virtual sessions at the WEF’s headquarters in Cologny near Geneva, Switzerland, on Jan. 17, 2022.

    Anonymous Commentary

    On Jan. 19, an author under the pen name “Ark and China” published the article “Evaluate Xi Jinping Objectively” on overseas Chinese blogs. Since the Chinese New Year on Feb. 1, the commentary of Xi’s leadership became viral among readers inside China.

    Taiwan’s state-run Central News Agency (CNA) reported on Feb. 9 that people in China had spread the article widely although the Chinese regime censored the piece.

    The commentary reviewed Xi’s performance over the past decade in the anti-corruption campaign, the party’s ongoing eradication of independent religion and beliefs, human rights abuses, its tight surveillance and control of the people, enhancement of propaganda, further revision of children’s textbooks and history books, the strengthening of state-run enterprises and suppression of the private sector, conflicts with the Western world, and winning over developing countries by squandering the national treasury.

    Its author opined that they don’t believe Xi has the capability to rule the country, and has angered both CCP officials who supported him and opposed him when he took office. Meanwhile, the Chinese people’s benefits and interests are being encroached upon, but their voices can’t be heard due to the regime’s censorship.

    “At present, it’s difficult for him to continue his ruling. The year 2022 will be his biggest turning point,” the author wrote. “Even if he miraculously secures another term, he will face more difficulties and complete failure before 2027.”

    The author then went on to list three factors that could cause the collapse of Xi’s ruling alongside a predicted worsening of the political situation. It said the achievements claimed by Xi are fabricated, the political foundation of Xi’s ruling has been destroyed, and “the entire CCP bureaucracy” is opposed to Xi and his handful of supporters.

    Fierce Infighting

    The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee, the nation’s top decision-making body (L-R): Han Zheng, Wang Huning, Li Zhanshu, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang, Wang Yang, and Zhao Leji meet the press at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Oct. 25, 2017.

    “Don’t treat the CCP as a political party! It’s actually a political gang. Like the former head of the Soviet Union Vladimir Lenin said, the communist party grows by fighting internally and cleaning (killing) its members,” Cai Xia, a former professor of political ideology at the CCP’s Central Party School, wrote in an opinion piece on Feb. 6 that was published on U.S.-based Chinese media Yibao.

    Cai said: “Due to the cruelty and bloody infighting within the party, all senior officials understand the hidden rule, which is to choose a faction and fight for it without thinking about what’s right or wrong.”

    Li told The Epoch Times that the forces in the Chinese regime which are against Xi are gathering together now. “They are using all their resources and solutions to block Xi from taking the next term,” he said.

    “The [viral] article is echoing the opinion of Chinese politicians. It stands on the point of maintaining the CCPs’s ruling in China but removing Xi Jinping,” Chen Weijian, New Zealand-based Chinese dissident and editor of online magazine Beijing Spring, told the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times on Feb. 8.

    “At the Sixth Plenary Session of the rubber-stamp legislature’s 19th conference, the CCP factions presented their severe disagreements [on regime policies]. [The long article] is the latest bomb that the anti-Xi’s faction has detonated amid the factional fighting,” Gao Wenqian, former official biographer of the CCP’s first premier Zhou Enlai, told VOA on Feb. 8.

    Gao said that the CCP’s rigid dictatorship is growing increasingly fragile, and may break at any time.

    Cai listed the crises the regime in Beijing is facing across China now, which include more white- and blue-collar unemployment, the financial crisis facing China’s largest real estate predators, the regime collecting more tax and fees from people who can’t earn a living and unprofitable enterprises, strict COVID-19 policies that further damage the economy and threaten peoples’ lives, and young Chinese who refuse to have children even after marriage.

    “This is a strong article that can drive public opinion against Xi,” Cai wrote.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 23:30

  • Massive Methane Cloud Visible From Space Leaks Above Louisiana
    Massive Methane Cloud Visible From Space Leaks Above Louisiana

    Here comes the crowd of “climate justice” activists ready to pounce on the perpetrators responsible for producing a massive cloud of methane gas that’s purportedly visible from space.

    According to one of Bloomberg‘s sources, the plume represents one of the most severe concentration of the powerful greenhouse gas to appear in the atmosphere in years.

    Geoanalytics firm Kayrros estimated an emissions rate of 105 tons of methane an hour was needed to generate the plume, which stretched more than 56 miles (about 90 km) across multiple parishes and was the most severe concentration of the powerful greenhouse since October.

    Source: BBG

    The state of Louisiana is now investigating the source of the massive cloud of gas, which appeared over the state.

    The state began its investigation after Bloomberg News contacted the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration about a cloud of invisible gas detected Jan. 21 by Kayrros SAS.

    The geoanalytics firm estimates an emissions rate of 105 tons of methane an hour was needed to generate the plume, which stretched more than 90 kilometers (56 miles) across multiple parishes and was the most severe concentration of the powerful greenhouse gas spotted by the Sentinel-5P satellite in the U.S. since October

    If the leak that released the gas plume was broken down and compared with cars, it would be equivalent to the annual impact from 1,900 cars. The release appeared to originate within 7 km (4.3 miles) of a gas pipeline owned by Energy Transfer, LP, Kinder Morgan and Boardwalk Pipelines.

    Louisiana’s Department of Natural Resources said it was made aware of the methane cloud after PHMSA forwarded an email from a Bloomberg reporter. PHMSA, which is investigating, said it had not received any reports of a release from a regulated entity in the area.

    Halting methane releases from fossil fuel operations is one of the most powerful steps that can be taken to slow global warming. Non-emergency flaring and venting of methane from oil and gas should be significantly mitigated or eliminated to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5° Celsius and to maintain a pathway toward a net zero energy system by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.

    It’s unclear which one may have sprung a leak. Whichever one it is, the leak has come at a terrible time, given the surging cost of both crude oil and natural gas.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 23:10

  • Still No Answers On The CIA's Unconstitutional Mass Surveillance Of Americans
    Still No Answers On The CIA’s Unconstitutional Mass Surveillance Of Americans

    By Matthew Guariglia & Andrew Crocker via Common Dreams/Electronic Freedom Foundation,

    The Central Intelligence Agency has been collecting American’s private data without any oversight or even the minimal legal safeguards that apply to the NSA and FBI, an unconstitutional affront to our civil liberties. According to a declassified report released last week by the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board (PCLOB), the CIA’s surveillance program is reminiscent of the mass surveillance programs conducted by the NSA, though the details released thus far paint a disturbing picture of potential wide-scale violations of people’s privacy.

    To start, the CIA program has apparently been conducted outside the statutory reforms and oversight of the intelligence community instituted after revelations by Edward Snowden in 2013. The newly declassified CIA data collection program is carried out in conjunction with Executive Order 12333 and is therefore subject to even less oversight than the woefully under-supervised NSA surveillance programs subject to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

    Via Reuters

    The whos, whats, whys, and hows of this semi-disclosed CIA program are still unknown, and the public deserves the right to know exactly what damage has been done. Senators Ron Wyden and Martin Heinrich are already pressing for the release of even more information. In a partially-redacted letter sent to the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA Director on April 13,  2021, the senators have called for the public release of the full report about the CIA’s surveillance, which remains classified. The senators’ letter also  demands answers about how the agency collects the data, what data is being collected, and the rules governing its storage and retention.

    From that letter and a PCLOB “Staff Recommendations” document, we know that the CIA collects a vast amount of data, often on U.S. persons, without any clear guidelines about data retention and without substantial oversight of analysts querying information about U.S. citizens. The program seems to exist outside the jurisdiction of either courts or Congress–given that even the Senate Intelligence Committee was left in the dark about this program.

    According to PCLOB’s staff recommendations, when an analyst attempts to look at information relating to an American citizen, a “pop-up box will appear to remind the analysts that an F[oreign] I[ntelligence] purpose is required for such a query. However, analysts are not required to memorialize the justification for their queries. As a result, auditing or reviewing U.S. Person (USP) queries is likely to be challenging and time-consuming.” So, not only is there no way of preventing curious and prying eyes of CIA agents from pulling up data about their friends and family–there’s no good way to audit agents’ activity after the fact.

    And we shouldn’t be surprised that this might be happening. In the past, NSA officers often used their invasive surveillance powers to spy on significant others. In response, the PCLOB staff recommended for the CIA to employ “automated tools” to assist in the auditing and compliance monitoring involving all of that U.S. data. “The declassification is urgent,” the Senators’ letter states—we agree.

    In their letter, Wyden and Heinrich inquire as to the nature of the CIA’s relationship to its “sources,” perhaps a reference to whether the CIA might be getting some of its data from the same place as the NSA—through secretive agreements with private companies. In 2013, it was reported that the CIA paid $10 million a year in order to gain access to AT&T’s call data. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In addition to new declassifications and clarity on the scope of this program, the government needs to act fast to prevent the CIA from continuing to circumvent constitutional rights. If we learn, in fact, that the CIA is purchasing this data, then Congress should work fast to pass the Fourth Amendment is Not for Sale Act. Intended to prevent government agencies and law enforcement from buying data harvested from apps—data they otherwise could not get without a warrant—the bill may also work to prevent the CIA from purchasing the phone records of U.S. persons in bulk. 

    Regardless of the CIA’s legal justification or technical means of collection and storage, Congress must act fast to ensure the Fourth Amendment’s vitality in the modern age. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 22:50

  • Goldman Sachs CEO DJs Super Bowl Party For Maskless Elites
    Goldman Sachs CEO DJs Super Bowl Party For Maskless Elites

    Whether attending the Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Sunday or pregame events on Saturday, maskless elites partied their faces off across the metro area this weekend as the rest of America watched in disbelief as mask mandates were ignored.

    The rich and powerful ignored local health mandates at Saturday’s Sports Illustrated pre Super Bowl party. David Solomon, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, ditched his tie and suit to play house music to maskless Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos and his girlfriend, Lauren Sanchez, among other maskless power players. 

    “He shows up with a backpack, in T-shirt, jeans, sneakers,” Michael Heller, co-founder of Talent Resources Sports, which hosted the event with Sports Illustrated, told Bloomberg. “After dark, he’s a different person, so free-spirited.”

    So different the CEO of Goldman Sachs took to the stage (we’re unsure if he was masked up or maskless) and played for hundreds of maskless people. 

    Daily Mail published several pictures showing hundreds of maskless elites at the event Solomon was DJing on Saturday night. 

    No mask no problem.

    Not one mask. Can you spot a masked-up person? 

    On Sunday, at the Super Bowl, Jennifer Lopez with Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Jay-Z, and LeBron James were all maskless despite the mandatory mask mandate and the stadium requiring attendees to wear KN95.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    But it appears no one followed the rules. This has made it increasingly frustrating for average folks who are forced, fined, and even “canceled” if they don’t wear masks. Millions of everyday Americans saw the liberal elites on full display this past weekend, operating on a different rulebook than everyone else. Meanwhile, kids in California have to be masked up at school this week. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 22:30

  • US To Open Embassy In Solomon Islands To Counter China
    US To Open Embassy In Solomon Islands To Counter China

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com, 

    The State Department told Congress that the US plans to open an embassy in the Solomon Islands before China becomes “strongly embedded” in the South Pacific nation.

    “The United States has a strategic interest in enhancing our political, economic, and commercial relationship with Solomon Islands, the largest Pacific Island nation without a US Embassy,” the State Department said in a notification that was obtained by The Associated Press.

    AFP/Getty Images

    Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed the plan on Saturday while in Fiji as part of a short Pacific tour that started in Australia. During his trip, the US released its new Indo-Pacific strategy that calls for opening new embassies in the region to counter Chinese influence.

    The Solomon Islands used to recognize Taiwan but opened up relations with China in 2019. The State Department said the US had to open an embassy because China “aggressively seeks to engage” with politicians and business people in the Solomon Islands.

    The AP report detailed further of China’s pattern of behavior there:

    In its notification to Congress, the State Department said China had been “utilizing a familiar pattern of extravagant promises, prospective costly infrastructure loans, and potentially dangerous debt levels,” when engaging with political and business leaders from the Solomon Islands.

    In November, the Solomon Islands was rocked by massive demonstrations and riots that were said to be partially motivated by the islands’ increasing ties with Beijing, and rioters reportedly targeted Chinese-owned businesses.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 22:10

  • The Dystopian Rebirth Of Moviepass As An App That "Tracks Users Eyes" To Make Sure They Watch Advertisements
    The Dystopian Rebirth Of Moviepass As An App That “Tracks Users Eyes” To Make Sure They Watch Advertisements

    Moviepass, the now-defunct service that was supposed to allow users to watch movies inexpensively, has pivoted ever-so-slightly into the business of being an Orwellian advertisement machine.

    The service is “returning as an app that will track users’ eyes when they watch adverts”, according to an alarming new report from The Independent. In exchange for your computer-verified undivided attention, the app will let users have access to movies. 

    Moviepass now will use facial recognition and “eye-tracking technology” to “ensure that viewers eyes are looking at promoted content in exchange for access to films”.

    Moviepass co-founder Stacy Spikes said: “It’s a way to close that loop and make it far more efficient of a system. I want to be able to see it for free. Advertisers have put a pre-show together not unlike what you’d normally see when you go to a movie theater but this is customized for you.”

    “As I’m looking at it, it’s playing back. But if I stop and I’m not paying attention to it, it actually pauses the content,” she continued. “We had an early version of this where you know what happened. People put the phone down and left and didn’t pay any attention to it. Right now 70 percent of video advertising is unseen. This is a way that advertisers get the impact they’re looking for but you’re also getting the impact yourself.”

    People will also be able to purchase products through the app in the future, Spikes said. 

    Her company’s first foray into inexpensive movies – before it went full Matrix – ended in 2019 when the economics of buying one movie ticket per day for $10/month didn’t pan out. 

    The next iteration of the service will be “powered by web3 technology,” Spikes said. 

    So now when you’re watching the next iteration of the Terminator series at home, your attention will be held captive by Skynet both on and off the screen…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 21:50

  • The Top 1% Own 32.1% Of Total Wealth, Bottom 50% Own 2.5%
    The Top 1% Own 32.1% Of Total Wealth, Bottom 50% Own 2.5%

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    The percentage of wealth owned by the top 1% keeps rising over time. Who’s to credit or blame?

    Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Fed), Chart by Mish

    This data series compiled by the Fed started in the third quarter of 1989. The most recent data is from the third quarter of 2021.

    If you have not seen charts of this series before, the numbers may seem shocking. 

    1989 Q3 vs 2021 Q3 Percentages

    • Top 1% Then 23.6%, Now 32.1%

    • 90th to 99th Percentile Then 37.3%, Now 37.5%

    • 50th to 90th Percentile Then 35.6%, Now 27.9%

    • Bottom 50% Then 3.7%, Now 2.5%

    Gains or Losses Since 1989

    • Top 1%: +8.5 Percentage Points

    • 90th to 99th Percentile: +0.2 Percentage Points

    • 50th to 90th Percentile: -7.7 Percentage Points

    • Bottom 50%: -1.2 Percentage Points

    Key Points

    1. The bottom never had much to lose but they managed to lose a bit anyway. 

    2. The top keep padding their wealth but remain the most impacted by recessions.

    3. The middle class is shrinking. 

    Credit and Blame

    Many people will blame the wealthy. But the actual culprit is the Fed.

    The bottom 50% sure don’t gain from bubbles. 

    Those with assets are the beneficiaries. And when the Fed steps on the gas, look at the far right of the chart to see what happens.

    Beneficiary of Inflation

    Inflation benefits those with first access to money and that’s the banks and the already wealthy.

    The poor who spend every penny and them some on food and shelter get hammered by inflation. 

    Meanwhile, the middle class keeps shrinking. 

    CPI Jumps Most in 40 Years

    The Fed tried for a decade to increase inflation. The Fed even wanted to “make up” for lack of previous inflation.

    But the CPI rose another 0.6% in January, at a year-over-year clip of 7.5%. The CPI is at the highest pace in 40 years.

    For discussion, please see CPI Jumps Most Since February 1982, Up at Least 0.5% 9 Out of Eleven Months

    The Fed finally succeeded and then some at producing inflation. Now doesn’t know what to do about it. 

    But should the banks get in trouble again, the Fed will be right there again to bail them out just as it did in 2000 in the dotcom bust and again in the 2007-2009 housing crash.

    *  *  *

    Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 21:30

  • Where Did Zelensky's Sarcastic Reference To The "Feb.16 Russian Invasion" Day Come From?
    Where Did Zelensky’s Sarcastic Reference To The “Feb.16 Russian Invasion” Day Come From?

    As we detailed earlier, during the Monday evening speech by Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy – which was intended to calm fears of the West’s predicted “imminent” Russian invasion – he made a passing reference to “February 16” being the “day of the attack”. Naturally this triggered an avalanche of rapid, breathless US media reports saying Wednesday is the day the invasion will begin, combined with the fact that Zelesnkiy declared the same day a special “day of unity” for the Ukrainian nation. 

    “We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack,” he had said, according to a translation. But as it turns out, he was in a sense stating just the opposite. While continuing to urge calm among the citizenry, and after previously chastising foreign media for stoking panic, this was another instance of gently mocking foreign hyped reports. 

    Yet it was widely presented as his literal words. Officials with his administration had to scramble to correct the misunderstanding. “Ukrainian officials told reporters in Kyiv that Zelensky was not being literal about an attack on Wednesday – though that day has circulated in news reports as a possible opening day of a Russian campaign on Ukraine,” The Hill explained. “Zelensky and Ukraine’s government have criticized the United States at times for over-stating the danger of an imminent Russian invasion of the country.”

    Source: UPI

    So then the question remains: what information was Zelenskiy referring to, particularly when he said “We are told…” that Wednesday would be the day the Russians attack? The Hill suggests he could have been referencing the latest Associated Press attempt to relay the predictions of anonymous US intelligence officials: 

    The Associated Press, citing intelligence obtained by the U.S., reported that Russia was eyeing Wednesday as the target date for an attack.

    Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters on Monday “we still don’t believe that some final decision has been made.”Asked about Zelensky’s statement and the mention of Feb. 16, Kirby said “I’m not going to talk about specific intelligence assessments, I think you can understand that. We have said for a while now that military action could happen any day.”

    But days ago Germany’s largest news website Der Spiegel reported that the Central Intelligence Agency had briefed NATO partners over an “imminent” Russian attack on Ukraine, and the report said the CIA specified Wednesday, Feb. 16 as the kick-off date for invasion. 

    So it appears the CIA is the source of the story, as Spiegel wrote last Friday (based on a machine translation):

    According to SPIEGEL information, both the US secret service CIA and the US military informed the federal government and other NATO states over the course of Friday that, based on new information, there were fears that the attack could take place as early as next Wednesday.

    According to several diplomats and military officials, the United States gave many details about the secret briefings. Routes for the Russian invasion were specifically described, as well as individual Russian units and what tasks they were to take on. February 16 was given as the possible date for the start of the invasion. What information the sharp US warning is based on was initially not known in Berlin.

    The reports stressed that the intelligence shared with Berlin and NATO officials was “very detailed and supported by many sources.” After weeks, this appears the first reference to any level of potential evidence, or at least detailed enough claims to appear more plausible. 

    So last Friday afternoon’s panicked headlines appear to be sourced to the CIA and US intelligence’s assessment, which appear to also underlie alarmist predictions issued by the White House… 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    But also interesting is that the Spiegel report which seems to have informed Zelenskiy’s passing reference to February 16, fully admits this might be entirely for disinformation purposes. The German publication wrote: “A point in time around mid-February had long been considered plausible. However, insiders also believe it is possible that the USA deliberately spread the information in order to torpedo the Russian attack plans.”

    Given the Ukrainian president referenced the Feb.16 timeframe, but also at the same time dismissed its plausibility or likelihood in a sarcastic way – it seems he himself may be convinced that the initial reports that were sourced to the CIA are but disinformation – part of Washington and Russia’s ongoing information warfare targeting the other.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    This further might give some much needed context to the constantly shifting alarmist predictions coming out of the White House, flip-flopping and constant shifting of timelines. Not for the first time, the deep state and US intelligence are busy planting false information, possibly toward provoking an incident that could trigger the threatened “mother of all sanctions” against Russia and Putin. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 21:10

  • Watch: Canadian Media Still Pushing Crackpot Theory That Truckers Are Russian Agents
    Watch: Canadian Media Still Pushing Crackpot Theory That Truckers Are Russian Agents

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit news,

    As the Canadian freedom convoy rolls on and continues to influence other protesters around the globe, Canadian media continues to push outright disinformation by suggesting that the Russian government is behind the movement.

    When the convoy first came to prominence at the end of January, state broadcaster the Canadian Broadcasting Company began spreading completely unfounded claims that “Russian actors” were present among the Canadian truckers holding up major cities including Ottawa and Toronto, as well as border crossings.

    The tenuous reasoning behind the theory is that Canada has expressed support for Ukraine during the country’s ongoing tensions with Russia.

    Rather than admit that working class truckers are sick of enforced restrictions and vaccine mandates threatening their livelihoods, CBC floated the crackpot idea that Vladimir Putin is secretly behind the protests.

    CBC continues to push the conspiracy theory, with correspondent Harry Forestell filing the following report Friday giving airtime to ‘New Brunswick cybersecurity expert’ David Shipley, who is adamant that the Russians are behind everything.

    Shipley proclaimed “Who would have reason right now to cause as much chaos in Canada as possible? Well, at the top of that list is Russia.”

    He continued:

    “We are actively engaged in a geopolitical battle about the future of the Ukraine. Our Foreign Affairs minister, our Prime Minister, others have been very vocal in our support for the Ukraine and it seems very likely that the tactics that we are seeing, the creation of the massive Facebook groups using fake identities or in the case now alleged by a U.S. media outlet, a stolen identity of a Missouri woman to create these groups and to foster this communication hundreds of thousands of people, this is the Russian internet research agency playbook writ large.”

    Shipley has considered that possibly the truckers are Chinese agents too, but ultimately no, they’re Russian.

    He declared “You have other enemies as well. You have China, you have other states but when I narrow down my list of suspects and I don’t have enough evidence to win in a court of law but I don’t need that right now, this smacks of the kind of move that Russia has made in the past, the United States, and is continuing to do around the world.”

    When asked what the solution to this pressing Russian agent problem is, Shipley’s solution was to restrict and shut down the convoy’s social media presence.

    Watch:

    You certainly don’t have enough evidence Mr Shipley because there isn’t any.

    *  *  *

    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 20:50

  • Canadian Civil Liberties Association Condemns Trudeau For Invoking National Emergency Over Truckers
    Canadian Civil Liberties Association Condemns Trudeau For Invoking National Emergency Over Truckers

    Update (1935ET): The Canadian Civil Liberties Association has condemned PM Justin Trudeau for invoking the Emergencies Act, claiming in a Monday tweet that the Canadian federal government “has not met the threshold necessary” to do so. 

    “The Emergencies Act can only be invoked when a situation “seriously threatens the ability of the Government of Canada to preserve the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Canada” & when the situation “cannot be effectively dealt with under any other law of Canada,” the twitter thread continues.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Has Trudeau created a political emergency?

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    *  *  *

    Update (1715ET): As expected, Canadian PM Trudeau invoked sweeping emergency police powers Monday in his latest attempt to stamp out dissent from citizens protesting vaccine mandates and other COVID restrictions. 

    “This is not a peaceful protest,” the Canadian leader told reporters in Ottawa alongside top cabinet officials. “The federal government is stepping in because local police authorities have had difficulty enforcing the law,” he said.

    “This is about keeping Canadians safe, protecting people’s jobs and restoring confidence in our institutions.”

    Enacting the new never-before-used law gives Trudeau, in effect, martial law control over everything and everyone; and not all of Canada is behind him…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    His first act, it appears, was to choke off any funding for the protesters by broadening its anti-money-laundering rules to cover crowdsourcing sites, threatening them with financing “terrorism”.

    “We are broadening the scope of Canada’s anti-money laundering and terrorist financing rules so that they cover Crowd Funding Platforms and the payment service providers they use,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said. 

    “This is about following the money. This is about stopping the financing of these illegal blockades.”

    Canada authorizes banks and financial institutions to “temporarily cease providing financial services where the institution suspects that an account is being used to further the illegal blockades and occupations.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    This new law applies to personal and corporate accounts and covers all forms of transactions including cryptocurrencies:

    “A bank or other financial service provider will be able to immediately freeze or suspend an account without a court order”

    Banks “will be protected against civil liability for actions taken in good faith.”

    Is it just us, or does Freeland look excited to be wielding this new-found power?

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    This seemed to sum things up rather well for the ‘peaceful protesters’…

    *  *  *

    As we detailed earlier, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation has learned that Prime Minister Trudeau “will inform the provinces he will invoke the Emergencies Act to give the government extra powers to deal with the protests across the country. But in a meeting with the Liberal caucus, the PM said there were no plans to deploy the military.” 

    The move follows a meeting Sunday of the federal cabinet and its Incident Response Group (IRG).

    Trudeau tweeted late Sunday that the IRG discussed “further actions the government can take to help end the blockades and occupations.”

    Earlier that day, Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair told CBC’s Rosemary Barton Live that the federal government has discussed invoking special emergency powers to deal with ongoing protests in Ottawa.

    Blair described the attitude around invoking the Emergencies Act as “appropriate caution” rather than “reticence.”

    As CBC concludes, the law gives the federal government carte blanche to cope with a crisis, including the ability to enact emergency powers that allow it to prohibit travel within a specified area or remove personal property, while imposing fines or jail time on people contravening new orders.

    This is basically the ability to unleash ‘selective’ martial law on Canadians.

    This comes after reports on Sunday, Canadian officials cleared the roadway and arrested “Freedom Convoy” demonstrators who held the line and blocked the busiest U.S.-Canada border crossing for nearly a week. Canadian officials confirmed the bridge reopened earlier Monday morning as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to invoke emergency powers to squash protesters around the country. 

    Traffic cameras on Ambassador Bridge, which connects Windsor and Canadian automotive plants with Detroit, show increased traffic flows around 0930 ET in both directions, into the US, and into Canada. 

    “Today, our national economic crisis at the Ambassador Bridge came to an end,” declared the mayor of Windsor, Drew Dilkens.

    Bridge Camera (Into the US)

    Bridge Camera (Into Canada) 

    While the bridge’s reopening has been called a success by the government, demonstrators against medical tyranny disrupted hundreds of millions of trade between both countries. Bloomberg reports the price of the six-day shutdown cost a whopping $13.5 million an hour in traded goods and forced carmakers to shutter or limit production at plants in Ontario and Detroit.

    About 500 miles northeast of Windsor, CBS News reports protesters in Ottawa, Canada’s capital, continue to “paralyze downtown.” The occupation of Ottawa has incited a movement across the country of freedom-loving people creating congestion across highways, metro areas, and border crossings — all because they’re fed up with Trudeau’s vaccine mandates and restrictions. 

    The government is struggling to quell the assembly of freedom-loving people from across the country as Trudeau’s government plays Whac-A-Mole” to squash protesters where every they show up. 

    The latest is in Surrey, British Columbia, where protesters have shuttered a border crossing. Freedom never sleeps as a stretch of Highway 15 remains shut down, preventing traffic from entering the US. Data from geolocation technology company TomTom shows part of the highway is closed. 

    Various highway traffic cameras (data sourced from the British Columbia government) confirm the closure.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Twitter is full of pictures and videos from over the weekend of people gathering on and around the highway to voice their opinion against the government’s dystopic vaccine mandates and restrictions. 

    Even as Ambassador Bridge reopens, protesters continue blockade movements across the country at critical chokepoints that could unleash economic pain for the Canadian economy, something the Bank of Canada has called “very distressing.” 

    The revolts have yet to be squashed as it appears Trudeau won’t submit to protester demands.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 20:36

  • US Advises All Americans To Depart Belarus Immediately 
    US Advises All Americans To Depart Belarus Immediately 

    update(8:14pmET): In what could prove a US continuing over-reaction, the State Department has advised that all American citizens should depart Belarus immediately. According to the fresh travel advisory on the State Dept’s official website:

    Do not Travel to Belarus due to the arbitrary enforcement of laws, the risk of detention, and unusual and concerning Russian military buildup along Belarus’ border with Ukraine; those in Belarus should depart immediately via commercial or private means, COVID-19 and related entry restrictions.

    On January 31, 2022, the Department of State ordered the departure of family members of U.S. government employees from Embassy Minsk.

    Due to an increase in unusual and concerning Russian military activity near the border with Ukraine, U.S. citizens located in or considering travel to Belarus should be aware that the situation is unpredictable and there is heightened tension in the region. 

    Russia and Belarus have continued with planned military exercises, which Washington has suggested is in reality part of a broader troop build-up with an eye on invading Ukraine. 

    Meanwhile, through Monday evening reports continue to be advanced that Russia is surging more troops toward the border:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    * * *

    update(2:16pmET): Strong signals of escalation on the hugely alarming news that the US has announced Monday it is closing its embassy in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, according to a breaking Wall Street Journal report. West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit $95/BBL for the first time since 2014, with Brent spiking to nearly $96 a barrel. US Embassy operations will reportedly be relocated some 340 miles west to Lviv, according to the report. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “As part of the move, the State Department ordered the destruction of networking equipment and computer workstations and the dismantling of the embassy telephone system, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter and internal communications,” WSJ details further. “Those moves render the Kyiv embassy inoperable as a diplomatic facility.”

    “On Sunday, 56 embassy workers and the embassy’s classified materials arrived at Dulles International Airport near Washington, the internal communications said,” the report notes.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    * * *

    update(1:51pmET): Appearing to deliberately avoid the kind of ‘war footing’ rhetoric that the US administration has been pushing out in recent days, Ukraine’s President Zelensky in his Monday evening address to the nation emphasized that the current crisis with Russia would be solved through negotiations. “Ukraine seeks peace and wants to deal with all issues only through negotiations,” he said according to a translation. But he also reportedly aimed strong words at Putin, saying, “We do not encroach on others, and we will never give up on our own.”

    Further he said Ukraine is “confident in its army which is much stronger than in 2014” – a reference to the Crimea crisis and start of the war on Donbas. At the same time, the US is said to be weighing about $1 billion in loan guarantees. 

    “U.S. President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan told congressional leaders on Monday that the United States was considering offering Ukraine up to $1 billion in sovereign loan guarantees to calm market concerns about a possible war with Russia, a source familiar with the adviser’s call told Reuters.”

    However, the White House might start with calming its own hyped rhetoric, and repetition of an “imminent” invasion, or that it’s coming “any day” – a scenario which clearly hasn’t materialized over the past couple weeks the administration has been saying it. Into Monday, the message out of the State Dept. continues to be very alarming over the situation…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Zelensky has also declared Feb.16 a “day of unity” – calling for patriotic flag-raising and displays of loyalty to the nation. It’s causing some to question whether this actually means Wednesday could be the day Kiev expects some kind of Russian aggression…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Interfax reports, “According to the published document, the head of state instructed to raise the national flag of Ukraine on houses and structures in all settlements and perform the national anthem of Ukraine at 10.00. Foreign diplomatic institutions were instructed to hold appropriate image events in the host states aimed at uniting and supporting Ukraine.”

    * * *

    Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is giving a major speech addressing the nation related to the crisis with Russia this evening, which is being aired on national channels. Over the past days authorities in Kiev have tried to calm the sense of panic among the population that’s been stoked largely by ultra-alarmist reports coming from both the White House and Western media in general.

    According to local media, “It should be noted that the last time Zelensky addressed the nation on January 25 on the eve of the meeting of the Normandy advisers in Paris and announced hopes for progress in a peaceful settlement in Donbass.”

    • UKRAINE WANTS PEACE, CONFIDENT IN ITS ARMY: ZELENSKIY
    • ZELENSKIY: UKRAINE TO RESOLVE ALL QUESTIONS ONLY THROUGH TALKS

    Via Reuters

    This is as on Monday Interfax is reporting that Ukraine’s government assesses that there’s no full-scale Russian in the coming days, which stands in direct contradiction to the latest statements out the White House alleging precisely that Russia will invade in a matter of “days”. 

    Bloomberg writes of the fresh Interfax report: “Ukrainian law-enforcement agencies don’t see a large-scale Russian attack happening Feb. 16-17, Interfax-Ukraine news agency reports citing Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.”

    Danilov described that the situation is “fully under control” and suggested that it’s part of the Russian playbook to promote fear and instability in Ukrainian society – a somewhat ironic assessment given the actual source of the panic. 

    However, Danilove “Doesn’t rule put provocations after Russian parliament votes laws on self-proclaimed republics on Tuesday,” according to Bloomberg.

    Meanwhile, regional tensions have perhaps cooled a bit after Putin acknowledged talks with the United States will continue, and that some of the Russian military drills in the south are coming to an end. One key issue will be whether the Kremlin sends any level of troops back to their home bases. 

    On this front, Russia’s foreign minister also affirmed dialogue with both NATO and Washington remains open. “Russia will continue seeking answers from Western colleagues to its questions about security guarantees, while simultaneously developing a dialogue on other aspects of this topic, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin on Monday,” TASS news agency wrote. 

    “We, developing a dialogue on some aspects that are of practical importance today, with our Western, primarily American colleagues. We will simultaneously seek their answers to the legitimate questions that we have raised,” Lavrov emphasized of the security proposals still under consideration.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 20:14

  • The Difficulty In Untangling Ukraine Propaganda Means We Have More Of It
    The Difficulty In Untangling Ukraine Propaganda Means We Have More Of It

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Please consider a few recent headlines regarding a potential Russian invasion.

    Hybrid War Already Started 

    The Wall Street Journal reports Hybrid War Already Started. 

    U.S. officials are warning that Russia could be about to attack Ukraine. For many citizens in this embattled country, the assault has already begun.

    Ukrainian officials say that Russia, which has positioned more than 100,000 troops around three sides of Ukraine, is stepping up a destabilization campaign involving cyberattacks, economic disruption and a new tactic: hundreds of fake bomb threats.

    Russian forces and their proxies already control portions of Ukraine and frequent skirmish with government forces. The aim of Moscow’s intensifying hybrid campaign, Ukrainian officials say, is to weaken their country and sow panic, potentially provoking discontent and protests of the kind Russia fomented in eastern Ukraine in 2014 to justify its interventions there. U.S. and U.K. officials said last month they uncovered coup plots intended to install a puppet pro-Russian government.

    The WSJ headline says a hybrid war has started. The first sentence says Russia “could” be ready to attack Ukraine. The third paragraph says Russians and their proxies already control portions of Ukraine.

    What portions? Where? Who are the proxies? 

    Now the US claims Ukrainian lawmaker and television channel owner, Yevhen Murayev, is a potential puppet ruler who could be installed by the Russians.

    What is the basis for that claim? 

    No Breakthrough

    The Washington Post reports Russia-Ukraine tensions high as Biden-Putin call fails to yield a breakthrough

    President Biden will speak to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky by phone Sunday as Western allies scramble to deter a possible Russian attack on Ukraine, as Moscow intensifies its pressure on NATO allies and Kyiv.

    Zelensky’s spokesman Sergii Nykyforov confirmed the Biden-Zelensky call Sunday in a comment on Facebook. The Ukrainian president, seeking to avoid panic and damage to his country’s economy, has played down fears of an imminent Russian invasion and has shown irritation at increasingly dire U.S. warnings.

    After the call between President Biden and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Saturday produced no breakthrough, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will take his turn at averting a Russian invasion with meetings in Kyiv and Moscow.

    Scholz, who has faced criticism that his government is not doing enough to support Ukraine, is due to meet Zelensky in Kyiv on Monday and with Putin in Moscow on Tuesday.

    Stoking Panic 

    The Times of Israel reports Ukraine leader says warnings of imminent Russian invasion are stoking ‘panic’.

    KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that warnings of an imminent Russian attack on his country were stoking “panic” and demanded to see firm proof of a planned invasion.

    Is that accurate? 

    It’s hard to assess given WSJ reports that a hybrid war has already started and Russia controls parts of Ukraine. 

    It’s unclear if the Journal is referring to Crimea or something else. By the way, Crimea is part of Russia, like it or not.

    Ukraine’s Zelensky Wants to Fend Off Russia—and America, Too

    Lending credence to the Times of Israel report is this WSJ headline: Ukraine’s Zelensky Wants to Fend Off Russia—and America, Too

    With Russian military forces gathering on three sides of Ukraine last month, advisers to President Volodymyr Zelensky urged a low-key response. His top national security adviser, in a cellphone call, counseled him with two words: “Olympian calm.”

    The following day, Mr. Zelensky addressed the nation on television and said the threat of war was no greater than any other time since Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded portions of the country in 2014.

    Is that accurate? 

    If you believe every headline story then:

    • War has started 

    • War is imminent

    • Ukraine demands proof war is imminent

    • Russia already controls portions of Ukraine

    • Odds of war no greater than any time since 2014

    Q&A on US Fear Stoking

    Q: Is the US stoking fear?

    A: Undoubtedly

    Q: Is that helping?

    Helping Whom? 

    Biden is in a win-win position by escalating fears. 

    If Russia invades he gets to say “I told you so.” If Russia doesn’t invade, Biden will claim his diplomacy and sanction threats staved off the invasion.

    No Reason to Believe the US State Department

    There is no reason anyone should have faith in what the US State Department says.

    If anything, some of it is so preposterous you would be wise to discount everything they say.

    Here is a video clip in point.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Note that any US allegation can be labeled as “declassified evidence” with no real evidence produced. 

    I covered “Alex Jones Territory” in depth in my report Olympian Calm in Ukraine Over Russia Invasion Threat vs US Hype and Panic.

    Jake Sullivan, US State Department: “One possible option the Russians are considering, and which we made public today, involves the production of a propaganda video – a video with graphic scenes of false explosions depicting corpses, crisis actors, mourners, and images of destroyed locations, entirely fabricated.”

    Reporter “This is Alex Jones Territory. What evidence do you have that there is some propaganda film in the making?“

    It’s All Propaganda Now!

    If you believe you know what’s going on, you are mistaken. And the more you believe you know what’s going on, the more you are a pawn in someone else’s game.

    There are many reasons the US would lie, Ukraine would lie, and Russia would lie. 

    And what should you expect from a pack of liars other than a pack of lies?

    Will Russia Invade?

    I don’t know, nor do you, and importantly neither does the US state department which is the one and only believable thing they have said in this crisis. 

    Four Reasons Russia Won’t Invade

    1. Expense

    2. When people start dying, wars become very unpopular

    3. Russia would not be able to militarily hold Ukraine indefinitely 

    4. If Russia wanted to hold more of Ukraine, it would have done so when it took back Crimea. 

    Despite the above rationale, dictators sometimes make very bad choices. If Putin does invade, he will have his reasons for doing so.

    Propaganda War Has Started

    The WSJ says a hybrid war already started. More accurately, the propaganda war is in full swing.  

    Escalating rhetoric does not seem to be helping. 

    But there are reasons for escalating propaganda, even if those reasons are no more than a self-serving “I told you so.”

    Meanwhile, don’t delude yourself into thinking you know what will happen, because you don’t.

    *  *  *

    Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 20:10

  • Airlines Coordinating With Biden Admin On 'No-Fly' List After Unruly Passenger Incidents Hit 27-Year High
    Airlines Coordinating With Biden Admin On ‘No-Fly’ List After Unruly Passenger Incidents Hit 27-Year High

    Last week we reported that Delta Airlines CEO Ed Bastian officially asked the Biden DOJ to help deter aggressive behavior on flights, telling AG Merrick Garland that a list “will help prevent future incidents and serve as a strong symbol of the consequences of not complying with crew member instructions on commercial aircraft.”

    Today we learn that this has been in the works for a while, as Bloomberg reports that the largest airlines in the US have been working with the Biden administration ‘for months’ to compile a no-fly list of unruly passengers amid attacks on flight attendants, airport gate agents and fellow travelers.

    Discussions among the carriers, their Airlines for America trade group, the Department of Homeland Security and Transportation Security Administration over the issue have intensified over the last six months or so, two people familiar with the issue said, asking not to be named because the talks are private. Airline unions also have been involved in some of the talks. –Bloomberg

    Last year, 72% of the 5,981 reports of pandemic-era passenger incidents were related to masks according to the FAA, which launched investigations into more than 1,105 more serious incidents in 2021 – over 3x the previous high since the agency began collecting data in 1995.

    Currently one of the largest stumbling blocks is trying to deploy uniform standards across airlines for banned individuals, as well as how to limit ‘inevitable cases of mistaken identity.’

    “It’s one thing to say you can’t fly on one airline,” according to effrey Price, an aviation security consultant and professor of aviation management at Metropolitan State University of Denver, who hasn’t been involved in the talks. “It’s another thing to say you can’t fly on any airline.”

    According to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a unified no-fly list is something the government is considering, though his agency plays no current role in security checks.

    Delta has put nearly 1,900 people on its no-fly list for refusing to comply with mask requirements and has shared 900 of the names with the TSA to possibly pursue civil penalties. United Airlines has banned more than 800 from its flights for refusing to wear a mask. Southwest declined to disclose how many are on its internal list. -Bloomberg

    “Obviously, there are enormous implications in terms of civil liberties, in terms of how you administer something like that,” Buttigieg told CNN. “Even when it was over terrorism, it was not a simple thing to set up. So none of these things can be done lightly. But I think all of these things need to be looked at, at a moment like this.”

    How long before no-fly lists include unvaccinated individuals?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 19:50

  • Gasoline Prices Rise Across US Again, Experts Warn More Pain At Pump Coming
    Gasoline Prices Rise Across US Again, Experts Warn More Pain At Pump Coming

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

    The price of gasoline has risen across the United States again as experts warn that more pain could lie ahead at the pumps for Americans.

    The average price of a gallon of regular-grade gasoline currently stands at $3.488, an increase of more than 30 percent since the same time last year, when it was $2.505 a gallon, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).

    In the last week, the price of regular-grade gasoline has soared nearly 1.4 percent, from $3.441.

    [ZH: This is the highest gasoline price at the pump for this time of year since 2013]

    According to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), total domestic gasoline stocks decreased by 1.6 million barrels to 248.4 million last week.

    Meanwhile, demand for gasoline increased from 8.23 million barrels per day to 9.13 million barrels per day, resulting in a disparity between demand and supply.

    The rising cost of crude oil, driven by loosening COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions and economies rebounding from the recession, is also putting continued pressure on prices.

    And Americans are set to pay even more at the pumps in the future, AAA warned on Feb.10.

    “Pump prices will likely continue to follow suit as demand grows and stocks decrease if crude prices continue to climb,” AAA said.

    Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 22 cents to settle at $89.88 at the close of the Feb. 10 formal trading session.

    “WTI $94, national average gas price will eclipse $3.50/gal this week,” Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy, warned on Feb. 14.

    Additionally, EIA reported that total domestic crude stocks decreased by 4.8 million barrels on Feb. 4 to 410.4 million.

    “The current stock level is approximately 13 percent lower than at the beginning of February 2021, contributing to pressure on domestic crude prices,” AAA noted.

    Since Feb. 3, the states of Delaware, New Mexico, Maryland, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, New Jersey, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky have seen the highest increases in the price of gasoline.

    Customers visiting pumps in Delaware have seen a 22 cent increase in the price of gasoline, according to AAA, while New Mexico follows closely behind with an 18 cents increase. Pennsylvania vehicle owners have seen a 10 cents increase while those in Kentucky are paying 9 cents more.

    AAA said that the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine are also contributing to rising oil prices, given that Russia is a member of OPEC+, crude-producing allies of The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

    Thus, any sanctions based on their actions toward Ukraine may cause it to withhold crude oil from the global market, AAA said.

    However, OPEC has dismissed requests to drastically pump more oil, which combined with the Ukraine crisis has created further instabilities in the market.

    Russia has massed some 100,000 soldiers along its borders with Ukraine.

    The Biden administration insists that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent and could take place before the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics, which are set to finish on Feb. 20.

    Western leaders have promised to apply sanctions on Kremlin officials “the likes of which we have not looked at before,” if President Vladimir Putin invades the former Soviet republic.

    “I think we’ve been very clear with Mr. Putin about the economic consequences that could come his way and the way the Russian people should he further incur, invade inside Ukraine,” Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby told Fox News Sunday in January.

    “I think we’ve been very, very clear that we’re going to look at sanctions and economic consequences, the likes of which we have not looked at before even considering even as far back as 2014,” he added.

    However, the Pentagon spokesperson also emphasized that the current situation “doesn’t have to come to conflict.”

    On Feb. 13, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited President Joe Biden to visit Kyiv in what he believes would be a powerful move that could help deescalate and stabilize the situation with Russia.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 19:30

  • Texas Sues Facebook For Hundreds Of Billions Of Dollars For Abusing Facial Recognition Tools
    Texas Sues Facebook For Hundreds Of Billions Of Dollars For Abusing Facial Recognition Tools

    Users of Meta Platform’s popular social media ecosystems like Facebook and Instagram will likely remember how the company abandoned its facial recognition tools on the apps back in November. The feature scraped visual data from the platform to identify people in newly posted photos, and abandoning it dramatically reshaped Meta’s attempt to retool its platforms, including plans to launch a child-only iteration of Instagram that would have functioned as a separate platform.

    But the company’s plans to abandon these controversial tools didn’t go far enough, and now the Texas AG is suing the tech behemoth for hundreds of billions of dollars for flagrantly violating the state’s laws surrounding data privacy: WSJ reported Monday morning that Texas’s attorney general has filed a lawsuit against Meta in state district court for illegally collecting metadata belonging to Texans using its facial recognition tools.

    Meta didn’t respond to a WSJ request for comment, but Paxton and his office said the following:

    “Facebook has been secretly harvesting Texans’ most personal information – photos and videos – for its own corporate profit,” Mr. Paxton said. “Texas law has prohibited such harvesting without informed consent for over 20 years. While ordinary Texans have been using Facebook to innocently share photos of loved ones with friends and family, we now know that Facebook has been brazenly ignoring Texas law for the last decade.”

    Back when it was called Facebook, the company previously settled another lawsuit over its facial recognition practices for roughly $650 million. That lawsuit was filed back in 2015 by the state of Illinois, which accused the company of violating its biometric privacy law, which is similar in some respects to the Texas law that Meta is being accused of breaking. Meta’s lawyers argued at the time that the company had required users to opt in or opt out of its facial recognition features, an argument that the company will likely re-use in its defense against Texas’s lawsuit.

    FB’s efforts to have that case thrown out were unsuccessful, and it eventually settled out of court with Illinois.

    Now, the latest lawsuit from Texas shows how new privacy laws are creating problems for major tech firms. In particular, Texas’s law makes it illegal for tech firms to capture biometric identifiers without the explicit consent of users.

    The Texas lawsuit—in particular the size of the civil penalties being sought—points to the impact that increasingly widespread privacy laws could have on big tech companies’ operations.

    After Facebook’s settlement of the Illinois class-action case became known, Texas sent its own civil subpoena to the company seeking information about the facial-recognition system. Facebook announced it was ending its facial recognition system last November.

    A civil subpoena issued by Paxton’s office demanded that Meta turn over all the materials that Facebook had produced in response to the Illinois class-action lawsuit. Unlike that suit, Texas’s law stipulates that it can only be enforced by the state’s attorney general to the tune of $25K per violation. The complaint estimates that at least 20 million Texans were affected. Texas had demanded that Facebook stop collecting facial recognition data belonging to Texans late last year, after the company said it would stop using those tools to automatically identify people in photos.

    “Facebook announced, in November 2021, that it would cease use of the face-recognition feature on its Facebook social-media platform,” the draft complaint says.

    “Facebook has made no such commitment with respect to any of the other platforms or operations under its corporate umbrella, such as Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook Reality Labs, or its upcoming virtual-reality metaverse.”

    One Twitter user succinctly explained how Facebook feels it can flout laws if there’s a dollar to be made.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 19:10

  • CNN Is Dying And Them Comparing Joe Rogan To Jan. 6 Proves It
    CNN Is Dying And Them Comparing Joe Rogan To Jan. 6 Proves It

    Authored by Matt Agorist via TheFreeThoughtProject.com,

    It’s getting rather tiresome hearing about Joe Rogan in the mainstream press. The man’s podcast is a massive benefit to humanity and his guests and his long-form style only help to lessen ignorance. That is all. It should be a non-issue. But the mainstream media, especially the folks at CNN, simply cannot stop obsessing over Horse Paste Man.

    From libelous attacks to video mashups taken out of context to calls for censorship directly from the White House, the establishment machine is fighting a losing war in their attempt to cancel Rogan.

    While the cancelists claim that their attempt to silence Rogan have been unsuccessful because he’s worth too much money to Spotify, in reality, Rogan is uncancellable because he has a massive audience who trusts him.

    Unlike every outlet in the mainstream, Rogan admits to making mistakes. After the out-of-context mashup of him using the n-word went viral recently, Rogan took it upon himself to pull every episode in which the word was said. He then apologized, admitting that he should have never been so brazen in saying it.

    He apologized and noted that he would never do it again and this was enough for everyone — who is not part of the establishment. In a last stitch effort to attempt to take down Rogan, CNN made one of, if not the most, ridiculous claims ever uttered into one of their reports.

    In an article published on Sunday, by one of their analysts, John Blake, CNN ran the following headline.

    Joe Rogan’s use of the n-word is another January 6 moment

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In this dumpster fire of an article, CNN attempts to claim that World War II was fought so that white people could never say the n-word. Seriously. Read the following excerpt.

    The podcaster Joe Rogan did not join a mob that forced lawmakers to flee for their lives. He never carried a Confederate flag inside the US Capitol rotunda. No one died trying to stop him from using the n-word.

    But what Rogan and those that defend him have done since video clips of him using the n-word surfaced on social media is arguably just as dangerous as what a mob did when they stormed the US Capitol on January 6 last year.

    Rogan breached a civic norm that has held America together since World War II. It’s an unspoken agreement that we would never return to the kind of country we used to be.

    That agreement revolved around this simple rule:

    A White person would never be able to publicly use the n-word again and not pay a price.

    The article then goes on for hundreds and hundreds of more words as Blake attempts to make his point for cancelling Rogan. According to CNN, no white person should ever use the word in any context, ever. And, if they do, they should be banned from everything, forever. Even if they publicly apologize and they never meant harm.

    After publishing the article with the above title, CNN received massive backlash and the title was changed to Why shrugging off Joe Rogan’s use of the n-word is so dangerous. Apparently the hyperbolic nature of such a claim was too much, even for CNN’s extremely low standards.

    Blake goes on to claim — without evidence — that Rogan’s use of this word will make him more popular. But who in their right mind would follow Rogan for using the n-word? Certainly not racists. There is no mass support for Rogan by white supremacists because if they tuned into a single episode, they would know that he openly disavows any and all racism and inequality.

    Rogan is also an advocate for ending the drug war because it disproportionately targets black people. In fact, thanks to Rogan frequently giving a platform to the Innocence Project, his efforts have recently helped to free multiple black men who were wrongly accused.

    CNN wants to stop this.

    The fact is that Rogan is proving the obsolescence of the legacy media and they are extremely angry. While these outlets used to be a trusted source of information, they have been caught in so many massive lies over the years that the public has lost trust in them.

    Outlets like CNN would rather devote countless hours of television spots and online articles around bashing Joe Rogan than they would about checking the rampant corruption in the federal government, pushing to end the senseless wars across the planet, and researching actual solutions to racial disparity, like ending the drug war.

    While they’re not bashing their political enemies, the mainstream press does little more than act as passive reverberators for the deep state. Reuters, WaPo, the NY Times, and every other mainstream outlet has proven this by continuing to march toward a potentially world-ending war with Russia over the Ukraine.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While Rogan may make a mistake from time to time and is certainly wrong on a lot of issues, his format cannot and will never have the negative impact that the mainstream press has had on this planet. Their coverage and establishment parroting has led to the suffering and deaths of millions of innocent men, women, and children. Rogan having on folks who talk about science will never be able to do this.

    However, it is the mainstream’s constant promotion of war and fear that has tricked Americans into supporting senseless wars for decades. When the US slaughters a dozen children in some country, it’s a blip in the mainstream as they incessantly repeat the establishment’s talking points ad nauseum while ignoring the issues that matter.

    The people have had enough and the more CNN and others try to silence Rogan, the more damage they do to their own brand. Though it has been incredibly difficult for independent media over the last 6 years of censorship and biased “fact checks,” those of us who held on through the hard times are here and we are building a new way of sharing important news through honesty and transparency.

    To the three hundred people who still take CNN and the others seriously, we urge you to get outside of your box. Challenge your ideas and don’t be afraid of admitting mistakes. The only way out of complete societal destruction is free and open discussions and intellectual humility.

    Those who constantly attempt to silence that discussion and who show no intellectual humility are not your friend and you’d be wise to wake up to this fact before it’s too late.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 18:50

  • Berkshire Bought Activision In Q4 Ahead Of Microsoft Deal; Added To Chevron, Trimmed Visa, Mastercard And Pharma Stocks
    Berkshire Bought Activision In Q4 Ahead Of Microsoft Deal; Added To Chevron, Trimmed Visa, Mastercard And Pharma Stocks

    In the weeks before Microsoft made the surprise announcement it was acquiring the troubled Activision, the market was rife with speculation that Berkshire itself could make a play – no pun intended – for the foundering video game company whose stock had tumbled so much in the fourth quarter amid poor earnings and sexual harassment scandals, many viewed it as a deep value play suitable even for Warren Buffett. In retrospect, that didn’t pan out, but as we learned today after the quarterly 13F bonanza hit, Berkshire was buying Activision in Q4 when the stock was tumbling, and as of Dec 31, Berkshire owned 14.658 million shares of Activision stock, representing 1.9% of the shares outstanding. Assuming Buffett bought around the average price for the quarter, or $65, Berkshire made around $250 million on that purchase alone which is not a bad payout for a few weeks worth of work (one wonders if the information that Buffett was buying somehow leaked, and prompted Microsoft’s unexpected acquisition of ATVI).

    Besides Activision, Berkshire had just one other new stake in Q4 according to the 13F: it purchased 107.1 million shares of Nubank Class A stock valued at $1 billion, representing 3.1% of shares outstanding.

    As Berkshire was entering new stakes in Activision and Nubank, it was also exiting two legacy holdings: Teva, where Berkshire sold its remaining 42.8 million shares valued at $416.8 million, and Sirius XM Holdings, where it liquidated 43.7 million valued at $266.3 million.

    Besides the new and exited positions, here are some other notable changes in the quarter:

    • Added to its holdings in Chevron Corp.
    • Decreased its stake in AbbVie Inc.
    • Apple Inc. was the biggest holding, representing 48% of disclosed assets

    Berkshire added to its holdings in four names, including:

    • Chevron: 9.54 million shares, up 33% to 38.2 million valued at $4.49 billion, representing 2% of shares outstanding
    • RH: 24,580, up 1.4% to 1.82 million valued at $973.6 million, representing 8.5% of shares outstanding
    • Floor & Decor Holdings Inc.: 26,846, up 3.3% to 843,709 valued at $109.7 million
    • Liberty Media: 7.466 million shares, up 12.9% to 65.535 million, valued at $3.358 billion.

    Buffett cut his holdings in eight names, most notably card processors Visa and Mastercard and his recently acquired pharma positions (Abbvie, Royalty Pharma and Bristol-Meyers):

    • AbbVie: 11.4 million shares, down 79% to 3.03 million valued at $410.7 million
    • Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.: 16.8 million, down 76% to 5.2 million valued at $324.4 million
    • Royalty Pharma Plc Class A, Mastercard Inc. Class A, Kroger Co.
    • Visa Class A: 1.27 million, down 13% to 8.3 million valued at $1.8 billion
    • Mastercard: 302,000, down 7% to 3.987 million valued at $1.43 billion
    • Charter Communications Inc. Class A: 371,685, down 8.8% to 3.83 million valued at $2.5 billion, representing 2.1% of shares outstanding
    • Marsh & McLennan: 2.34 million, down 85% to 404,911 valued at $70.4 million

    There were no changes among Berkshire’s top five holdings:

    • Apple: unchanged at 887.1 million shares valued at $157.5 billion
    • Bank of America Corp.: unchanged at 1.01 billion valued at $44.9 billion
    • American Express Co.: unchanged at 151.6 million valued at $24.8 billion
    • Coca-Cola Co.: unchanged at 400 million valued at $23.7 billion
    • Kraft Heinz Co.: unchanged at 325.6 million valued at $11.7 billion

    While the most notable changes in the top 10 is that Chevron is now Berkshire’s 9th largest holding, worth $4.5 billion as of Dec 31.

    Here is the full summary of Berkshire’s stock holdings as of Dec. 31:

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 18:30

  • Free Speech Becomes Roadkill In The Crackdown On Canadian Truckers
    Free Speech Becomes Roadkill In The Crackdown On Canadian Truckers

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    [ZH: This was written just before Trudeau and Freeland unleashed 1984-esque hell this evening on Canadian’s freedom of speech and rights, making the situation even more surreal.]

    Below is my column in the Hill on the government and media campaign against the Canadian truckers. The Canadian government has now cleared the Ambassador Bridge. However, there was lasting damage done to the rights of free speech and association after an alliance of the government, corporations, and the media sought to isolate the protesters politically and financially.

    The most disturbing element was the freezing of donations by companies and the courts. Most recently, the TD Bank joined in blocking support from thousands of citizens. The organized effort to cut off access to donations is alarming, particularly in conjunction with efforts to curtail social media and other informational avenues for the protesters.

    Here is the column:

    Canada appears to be facing its greatest threat since Benedict Arnold came close to seizing Ottawa in 1775. The source of this “insurrection” and “attack on democracy,” however, is not a foreign government but Canadians who have descended on their own capital to protest continuing COVID-19 mandates.

    The protest has been peaceful — and highly successful in cutting off key highways. But the most alarming development has not come from the convoy but from the commentary about it, including calls for mass arrests and even vigilantism. The Ottawa Police Services Board chairman has called it a “nationwide insurrection,” adding, “Our city is under siege.”

    CNN analyst and Harvard professor Juliette Kayyem was apoplectic at the thought of truckers shutting down roads and interfering with trade. She tweeted out a call to “slash the tires, empty gas tanks, arrest the drivers, and move the trucks.” CNN correspondent Paula Newton said this act of civil disobedience was nothing less than a “threat to democracy. An insurrection, sedition.”

    Blocking streets, occupying buildings and shutting down bridges have long been tactics of protesters. Yet what constitutes a protest or an insurrection often seems to depend on the cause involved. When rioters caused billions of dollars in damages, burned police stations and occupied sections of American cities in the summer of 2020, for example, few in the media declared them to be terrorists or a threat to democracy. But CNN’s Kayyem once called conservative protesters occupying a state capital “domestic terrorists.” GoFundMe, which previously helped in the funding of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) protesters, froze more than $10 million raised for Canadian truckers to prevent it from being used to support them.

    After the money was frozen by GoFundMe, supporters switched to GiveSendGo to “adopt a trucker.” The Canadian government then moved successfully to freeze millions of donations to the truckers, and the Supreme Court of Canada approved the freeze in a major blow to free speech and associational rights in Canada.

    In the meantime, the government has demonized the convoy. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who praised truckers just two years ago as heroes, has denounced them as “trying to blockade our economy, our democracy.”

    This is the same Trudeau who praised BLM protesters and stressed that “I have attended protests and rallies in the past when I agreed with the goals, when I supported the people expressing their concerns and their issues, Black Lives Matter is an excellent example of that.”

    Protesters are routinely arrested for blocking roads, of course, and Canada certainly can enforce its public safety laws. But government responses, in the U.S. and now in Canada, seem heavily dependent on protesters’ viewpoints — just as much of the media coverage of Canada’s trucker movement could not contrast more strikingly with how protests across the U.S. in 2020 were often reported. Back then, many of these same journalists praised the civil disobedience legacy of the late congressman and civil rights icon John Lewis, who charged the next generation to go out and make “good trouble.”

    In cities such as Washington, D.C., police allowed BLM protesters to take over streets and stood by as some protesters toppled historic statues. When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was asked about the destruction, she shrugged and said, “People will do what they will do.” In Seattle, the seizing of a police station and the occupation of an entire section of the city was tolerated by the Democratic mayor, who likened it to a “summer of love.” And when BLM protesters flouted COVID-19 mandates, health experts lined up to declare they should be exempted from pandemic rules because racism is a health crisis too.

    What is most concerning now is the unwillingness to consider Canadian truckers as anything other than knuckle-dragging, racist insurrectionists. Like so much in our age of rage, our political opponents cannot be anything but caricatures or cutouts, because reason no longer has a place in our national discourse. Yet it is precisely the isolation of dissenting voices and groups that leads to such acts of disruption and disobedience.

    Canada’s truckers obviously feel marginalized and dismissed by their government. That feeling was magnified when Trudeau fled to a secure location and refused to meet with them. Officials then threatened anyone giving aid or gas to the truckers.

    There is a worldwide movement against COVID-19 mandates and rising complaints over the censorship of those with opposing views of these policies. Many of those objections are now being treated as mainstream questions, from the efficacy of masks to the value of lockdowns, from the origins of the virus to the protection of natural antibodies.

    Once again, an alliance of government, social media companies and the mainstream media is fueling public divisions, even as such condemnation of the truckers appears to be having less and less impact. Rage gives a license to treat opposing views as unworthy of expression or tolerance. But people who feel marginalized tend to get mad and find their own outlets for speech.

    I believe the truckers are wrong to continue the blockade unless the government yields to their demands. But the government also is wrong in how it has dismissed the truckers and cracked down on fundraising and other support for the movement.

    The freezing of funds supporting the truckers laid bare the anti-free speech trend sweeping across the world, including in the U.S. There is no principled basis for cutting off the ability of citizens to support other citizens in a campaign of civil disobedience. Although ignored by most in the media, the same claim used by the Trudeau government today could have been used to freeze support for the civil rights era’s freedom marchers or for BLM protesters in 2020.

    Ottawa is not under siege; the roads can be cleared. However, our politics and media have become bunkered and blockaded. Free speech is being curtailed through government actions, including the freezing of these funds, or through corporate censorship now embraced by the left. And lost in all this is an outlet for our political tensions and channels for dialogue.

    Acts of civil disobedience like these will remain part of political movements. However, if we want to reduce the impulse to take to the highways to protest, then we need to open up the information superhighway for full political expression and dissent.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 18:10

  • The Uneven Fallout Of The Inflation Surge
    The Uneven Fallout Of The Inflation Surge

    As inflation surged to a 40-year high in January 2022, millions of Americans are facing financial hardship due to the rising consumer prices.

    As Statista’s Felix Richter details below, according to a survey conducted by Gallup in January, 9 percent of U.S. adults have been caused severe financial hardship by the latest surge in inflation, severe meaning that it might affect their ability to maintain their current standard of living. Another 40 percent face moderate hardship, meaning that price increases affect them but don’t threaten their standard of living.

    Making inflation woes worse is the fact that they affect lower income groups disproportionately. While it’s relatively easy to shrug off price increases when it only reduces the amount of money left at the end of the month, it is much harder for people who struggled to make ends meet even before prices started surging.

    As the chart shows, the perceived effect of recent price increases varies significantly by income group.

    Infographic: The Uneven Fallout of the Inflation Surge | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    While 66 percent of those living in households with an annual income of less than $40,000 experience some kind of financial hardship these days, just 32 percent of those earning $100,000 or more claim to do so.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/14/2022 – 17:52

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Feb 14

Today’s News 14th February 2022

  • China Aims To Be "World's Most Influential Power", US Warns In New Indo-Pacific Strategy
    China Aims To Be “World’s Most Influential Power”, US Warns In New Indo-Pacific Strategy

    Submitted by Andrew Thornebrooke of Epoch Times

    The White House released its long-awaited Indo-Pacific Strategy on Feb. 11, outlining how it plans to deal with the increasing adventurism of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and to better secure and improve the region for the international community.

    The Royal Australian Navy guided-missile frigate HMAS Parramatta (FFH 154), left, is underway with the U.S. Navy amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA 6), the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52) and the Arleigh-Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52)

    In an associated statement, the White House said that interest in the region from partners and allies was converging, and that the realm would play a critical role in the future development of the United States both economically and diplomatically.

    “This convergence in commitment to the region, across oceans and across political-party lines, reflects an undeniable reality: the Indo-Pacific is the most dynamic region in the world, and its future affects people everywhere.”

    The strategy, as such, focuses on five key concepts: That the Indo-Pacific ought to remain free and open, connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient.

    Across these concepts, the strategy outlines various broad actions that the Biden administration intends to take in the region, including a plethora of investments in democratic institutions abroad and efforts to ensure that commons such as the skies and seas are navigated in accordance with international law.

    The strategy, as such, focuses on five key concepts: That the Indo-Pacific ought to remain free and open, connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient.

    Across these concepts, the strategy outlines various broad actions that the Biden administration intends to take in the region, including a plethora of investments in democratic institutions abroad and efforts to ensure that commons such as the skies and seas are navigated in accordance with international law.

    The strategy centers on the United States’ intent and continued ability to leverage its relationships with partners and allies in the region to counter growing adventurism from the CCP.

    “The PRC is combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological might as it pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific and seeks to become the world’s most influential power. The PRC’s coercion and aggression spans the globe, but it is most acute in the Indo-Pacific,” the strategy reads, referring to the country’s official name, the People’s Republic of China.

    “Our collective efforts over the next decade will determine whether the PRC succeeds in transforming the rules and norms that have benefitted the Indo-Pacific and the world.”

    The statement is important for clearly defining the CCP as the foremost challenge in the region, and stating plainly that the administration considers the competition between the two nations as nothing less than a battle between differing visions for the future of the global order.

    “We recognize the limitations in our ability to change China, and therefore seek to shape the strategic environment around China by building a balance of influences that advances the future we seek, while blunting Beijing’s efforts to frustrate U.S. objectives and those of our partners,” a senior administration official said during a Feb. 11 press call.

    The official pointed out, however, that the document did not cover the administration’s entire China strategy, however, but presented its vision for further securing the region.

    “This is not our China strategy. This—you know, we very clearly identify China as one of the challenges that is—that the region faces and, in particular, the rise of China and China’s much more assertive and aggressive behavior,” the official said.

    “But, you know, our China strategy is global in scope. It recognizes the Indo-Pacific as a particularly intense region of competition.”

    The strategy further regards the United States’ network of security alliances and partnerships as its “single greatest asymmetric strength,” and says that it will expend significant investments to push the so-called Build Back Better World plan, and its goal of global infrastructure development.

    Importantly, the strategy also defines the administration’s approach to Taiwan and the ongoing crisis with the CCP over the island’s continued de facto independence. On this issue, the United States appears set to maintain the same policy of strategic ambiguity that it has held for decades. Under this policy, Washington is deliberately vague on whether it would come to the island’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion.

    “We will also work with partners inside and outside of the region to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, including by supporting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, to ensure an environment in which Taiwan’s future is determined peacefully in accordance with the wishes and best interests of Taiwan’s people,” the strategy reads.

    As such, while the administration appears set to increase investments in the Indo-Pacific across the realm of security, diplomacy, and economic development, it will not pursue changes in the status quo regarding Taiwan.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 23:30

  • New Zealand Police Play "Barry Manilow" And "The Macarena" To Antagonize New Zealand Protesters
    New Zealand Police Play “Barry Manilow” And “The Macarena” To Antagonize New Zealand Protesters

    The authorities in New Zealand have found a new strategy for warding off unwanted demonstrators who are camping outside the Parliament building: playing “Barry Manilow’s Greatest Hits” and the “the Macarena” on repeat to try and ward people off.

    Of course, the global protest movement inspired by the Canadian “Freedom Convoy” is vexing governments from the antipodes to Europe, and beyond.

    And in a few instances, the demonstrators have responded in kind by playing Twisted Sister’s “We’re Not Gonna Take It”. Hundreds of demonstrators have been camped out outside Parliament in Wellington since Tuesday. According to the BBC, they adopted the name “Convoy for Freedom” and blocked streets in the city.

    Although their numbers dwindled to the dozens by mid-week, they increased again by the time the weekend arrived.

    Police haven’t been shy about making arrests: on Thursday, police arrested 122 people and charged many with trespassing or obstruction. Yet, still the demonstrators persisted.

    The local police haven’t stopped at playing music. Other tactics of dispersal have included “turning on sprinklers” on a lawn where protesters had camped out.

    But again, protesters retaliated by digging trenches and building makeshift drainpipes to re-route the water.

    On Saturday, singer James Blunt responded to a headline about authorities sonic repellant, and joked that his music should be added to the playlist.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Sure enough, somebody was apparently paying attention, since an observer said his hit “You’re Beautiful” was added to the authorities’ playlist on Sunday.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 23:00

  • Zuesse: Making Sense Of The Ukraine Standoff
    Zuesse: Making Sense Of The Ukraine Standoff

    Authored by Eric Zuesse via TheDuran.com,

    Someone asked me:

    Can you make sense out of the current Ukraine situation/stand-off? You indicated in an earlier note that you didn’t think Putin would invade Ukraine unless Ukraine invaded Donbass. So, what is going on right now?  Why the massive Russian build-up on the borders (assuming the news isn’t exaggerating)?

    I answered:

    Putin intends to assure that if Ukraine invades Donbass, the residents in Donbass will win. He has armed and trained them how to use the weapons, but if Russian soldiers would need to enter Donbass and fight there against Ukraine, he also will need to defeat the Ukrainian soldiers there. He is waiting for Ukraine to invade Donbass. 

    Biden wants Zelensky to order the invasion; Zelensky doesn’t want to do it, because then the EU almost certainly will never allow Ukraine into the EU. Ukraine needs the EU because it lost its main trading-partner, Russia, on account of Obama’s 2014 anti-Russian coup.

    The EU won’t support Ukraine if Ukraine starts the invasion to occupy Donbass, except if it is responding to a prior Russian entrance into Donbass, in which case Ukraine wouldn’t be blamed for the carnage there. That is the reason why Biden wants Ukraine to set up a false-flag event, so as to make a Ukrainian invasion SEEM to be a defense against Russian aggression.

    For a long time, there have been allegations that nazis in Ukraine were preparing a false-flag event and were threatening Zelensky with a coup to overthrow him if he refused to do it, to give the go-ahead. He’s walking a tightrope.

    But recently, American media have been reporting that U.S. intelligence shows that Putin has planned a false-flag event in order to ‘justify’ a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    The EU’s position is to demand Ukraine to fulfill its promise under the February 2015 Minsk II accord to negotiate with the Donbass government so as to accept Donbass back into Ukraine without hostility and with independence like Crimea had inside Ukraine during 1954-2014 which was when Crimea had been part of Ukraine instead of part of Russia (of which it was a part during 1783-2014). But if Zelensky were to go forward with the Minsk II deal (to which Hollande, Merkel, and Putin had forced both Ukraine and Donbass to sign), then the nazis would overthrow him.

    I believe that Zelensky is doing all he can to comply with EU and not with U.S. but still stay alive.

    *  *  *

    Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 22:30

  • American Companies That Failed In China
    American Companies That Failed In China

    For decades, China has been a top priority for American companies looking to expand.

    This is because the country’s middle class is simply enormous, growing from 3.1% to 50.8% of the country’s total population between the years 2000 and 2018.

    According to Brookings, there are now at least 700 million people in China’s middle class, and this group has never had more disposable income to spend on consumer goods and services.

    However, as Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu details below, despite the size and potential of the market, China is not an easy place for foreign businesses to enter. As this infographic shows, many of America’s biggest names eventually admitted defeat.

    Companies by Tenure

    The following table lists the tenures of every company included in the graphic.

    It’s worth noting that Google’s parent company, Alphabet, still maintains a physical presence in China. Google’s services were banned by the Chinese government in 2010.

    Dates were gathered from various media reports and sources. There may be small deviations from when a company actually entered or exited.

    The reasons for why these companies withdrew are surprisingly similar, and can be broken down into two broad categories.

    Retailers Fail to Adapt

    Failing to adapt to the cultural differences of Chinese consumers is a common mistake. Here’s how two American retailers learned this lesson the hard way.

    Best Buy

    Best Buy struggled because Chinese consumers were not willing to pay a premium for brand-name electronics. Local retailers could often source similar (or counterfeit) goods for much cheaper, and undercut Best Buy’s prices.

    “Why buy a Sony DVD player or Nokia phone at Best Buy when you can pay less for the exact same product at a local store?”

    – SHAUN REIN, CHINA MARKET RESEARCH GROUP

    Best Buy also made the mistake of bringing over its large flagship stores, which were out of reach for most consumers. Due to severe traffic congestion, locals preferred smaller shops that were closer to home.

    Home Depot

    The Home Depot expanded into China around the same time as Best Buy, but unfortunately it was another cultural mismatch.

    Home Depot failed to acknowledge that “do it yourself” repairs are not a strong cultural match for China. Labor costs are relatively low, so rather than do the work themselves, many homeowners prefer to rather hire someone else to do it. On the other side of the equation, the American brand failed to win over contractors doing the repairs and renovations.

    The Home Depot’s product offerings were also left unchanged from America, making them a poor match for local tastes. As a point of comparison, IKEA has had a presence in China since 1998, and continues to open new stores to this day.

    Tech Firms Clash with Regulators

    Uber’s experiences in China make a good case study on how American tech firms struggle to succeed in Asia’s biggest economy.

    For starters, breaking into the Chinese market was incredibly expensive. Uber spent billions on subsidies to attract customers and drivers, and losses were quickly piling up. To make matters worse, domestic rivals like DiDi were also handing out subsidies.

    On the operational side, Uber ran into several hurdles. To avoid issues with China’s data localization laws, the company needed servers on Chinese soil. Its navigation provider, Google Maps, also had limited accuracy in the country. This left Uber with no choice but to partner with Baidu, a Chinese tech company.

    The final straw, however, was likely a set of impending regulations which targeted the ride-hailing industry. Under these rules, Uber risked losing control of its data, and would need both provincial and national regulatory approvals for its activities. Even further, subsidies would also no longer be allowed.

    Uber realized that doing business in China was unsustainable, but its exit wasn’t exactly a failure. In 2016, Uber sold its assets to rival DiDi and took an 18.8% stake in the company. Ironically, DiDi is now embroiled in a conflict with Chinese regulators over its listing on the NYSE.

    The Tech Fallout Continues

    Since Uber’s departure, the Chinese government has increased their grip over the tech industry. This has driven more American firms out of the country, including Yahoo and LinkedIn, which is now owned by Microsoft.

    Both firms announced their withdrawals in 2021 and were rather clear about why they made the decision. Yahoo cited its commitment to a “free and open” internet, while LinkedIn says its decision was due to a “considerably more difficult operating environment and higher regulatory requirements”.

    Given the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, companies that generate data (often seen as a national security concern) are likely to continue facing regulatory hurdles.

    Outside of tech, China is still a massive opportunity for American businesses. By 2027, the country’s middle class is expected to reach 1.2 billion people, or one quarter of the global total.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 22:00

  • Beto O'Rourke U-Turns On AR-15 Confiscation, Saying He's "Not Interested" In Taking Firearms From Americans
    Beto O’Rourke U-Turns On AR-15 Confiscation, Saying He’s “Not Interested” In Taking Firearms From Americans

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

    Beto O’Rourke has backtracked from comments he made in 2019 when he asserted that he would confiscate AR-15-style firearms from Americans.

    The Democrat, who announced his run for Texas governor on Nov. 15, said on Tuesday that he’s “not interested” in taking anyone’s firearms.

    “I’m not interested in taking anything from anyone,” O’Rourke told supporters during a campaign stop in Tyler, Texas, according to KLTV. “What I want to make sure that we do is defend the Second Amendment.”

    He added: “I want to make sure that we protect our fellow Texans far better than we’re doing right now. And that we listen to law enforcement, which [Gov.] Greg Abbott refused to do. He turned his back on them when he signed that permitless carry bill that endangers the lives of law enforcement in a state that’s seen more cops and sheriff’s deputies gunned down than in any other.”

    The U-turn comes just months after O’Rourke doubled down on his comments regarding removing AR-15-style firearms in an interview with the Texas Tribune.

    “I think most Texans can agree—maybe all Texans can agree—that we should not see our friends, our family members, our neighbors, shot up with weapons that were originally designed for use on a battlefield,” O’Rourke told the publication.

    O’Rourke, whose run for Texas governor targets the incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a third term, vehemently endorsed confiscating guns back in 2019.

    He told people watching a presidential primary debate in September of that year: “Hell yes! we’re gonna take your AR-15, your AK-47.”

    When asked whether he’d actively force Americans to give up their guns, O’Rourke said: “I am if it’s a weapon that was designed to kill people on the battlefield. If the high-impact, high-velocity round, when it hits your body shreds everything inside of your body—because it was designed to do that—so that you would bleed to death on a battlefield. And not be able to get up and kill one of our soldiers.”

    “We’re not going to allow it to be used against fellow Americans anymore,” O’Rourke added.

    Earlier this week, O’Rourke took aim at Abbott for supporting constitutional carry, something that the Democrat has vowed to repeal if elected governor.

    He wrote on Twitter on Feb. 9: “The number of Texans shot to death has gone up EVERY single year under Abbott. 4,164 Texans in 2020 alone. How does Abbott respond? By signing a dangerous law that makes it easier for criminals to carry a loaded gun in public. His radical agenda is killing the people of Texas.”

    Abbott in November said that O’Rourke wants to “impose socialism.” Abbott said O’Rourke would defund the police, kill good-paying oil and gas jobs, allow open border policies, support President Joe Biden’s policies, and “take your guns.”

    Texas in September became the latest U.S. state to allow individuals to carry a gun without a permit.

    First signed into law by Abbott in mid-June, the bill means that Texans who are aged 21 and older and who are legally able to purchase and own a handgun will no longer require a license to carry one and will not have to undergo training either.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 21:30

  • Robots, Like Humans, Are Also Struggling In This Market
    Robots, Like Humans, Are Also Struggling In This Market

    By Cormac Mullen, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and strateigst

    Exasperated fund managers can take some comfort from the fact that the machines are struggling just as much as humans with this year’s volatility.

    An artificial intelligence-guided fund has fallen almost 9% — lagging its benchmark, the S&P 500 Total Return Index, by about 5 percentage points — according to data compiled by Bloomberg through Wednesday.

    The AI Powered Equity ETF seemed to have been positioned well going into the new year, having sold down its so-called FANG+ positions in December. But stock picks in the financials and energy sectors have weighed on the fund, even as it benefited from a lower-than-benchmark exposure to communication services, according to Bloomberg’s Portfolio & Risk Analytics function.

    The AI fund’s “manager” is a quantitative model which runs 24/7 on IBM Corp.’s Watson platform and was developed by EquBot. It’s still overweight tech stocks with chipmaker AMD the largest holding, and is close to benchmark with the three key value sectors of financials, energy and materials stocks.

    And Apple remains the only FANG+ stock in its top 20 holdings, suggesting it is sticking with a strategy of avoiding the mega-cap tech names for now.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 20:30

  • "Buy The Dip And Sell The Rally" – What Hedge Funds Are Doing In The Current Market Turmoil
    “Buy The Dip And Sell The Rally” – What Hedge Funds Are Doing In The Current Market Turmoil

    After a catastrophic start to the year for hedge funds, which was followed by an epic shorting frenzy before hedge funds reversed and rushed to buy all risk assets last week, which reaffirms the common them seen across 2022 – nobody has any idea how to trade this market.

    Still, the good news is that after a dismal beginning, hedge funds performance has stabilized modestly and as Goldman Prime writes in its latest weekly note, the GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate rose for a 2nd straight week by +2.71% between 2/4 and 2/10 (vs MSCI World TR +1.19%), driven by beta of +1.41% (from market exposure and market sensitivity combined) and alpha of +1.31%, representing the best weekly alpha returns in the past year.

    Thanks to this performance rebound, overall book gross leverage increased 2.9% to 238.6% (46th percentile one-year) and Net leverage also rose 1.2 pts to 79.5% (2nd percentile one-year). Still, overall book L/S ratio little changed at 1.998 (lowest since Jul ‘20). Fundamental L/S Gross leverage +2.5 pts to 178.7% (59th percentile one-year) and Fundamental L/S Net lev erage +2.5 pts – the first increase in 7 weeks – to 60.2% (6th percentile one-year).

    Not surprisingly, just days after Goldman Prime reported the biggest bout of shorting in history…

    … The GS Prime book saw the largest net buying since late December (+1.0 SDs), driven by risk-on flows with long buys outpacing short sales 8 to 1. Net flows diverged between Single Names (3rd straight week of net buying) and Macro Products (4th straight week of net selling); suggesting a shift of focus to micro variables. Furthermore, as GS Prime notes, all regions were net bought led by North America (driven by long buys) and to a lesser extent DM Asia (driven by short covers). 8 of 11 global sectors were net bought led in $ terms by Info Tech, Materials, Financials, and Consumer Disc, while Comm Svcs and Energy were the most net sold.

    Net buying in US Info Tech continued this week but hedge funds sold Non Profitable Tech stocks (GSXUNPTC) in each of the past three days, suggesting that managers faded the group’s price rally this week amid a growing focus on profitability. While price of the Non Profitable Tech basket is down nearly 50% from its all-time high, net exposure in the group remains well above historical averages.

    US Financials have been net bought for five straight days led by long buys and short covers in Rate Sensitive Financials amid a higher than expected US CPI print and higher bond yields. Despite this week’s buying activity, net exposure in Rate Sensitive Financials – at just 1.3% of the overall US single name book – remains well below its long-term average in the 63rd percentile vs. the past year and in the 37th percentile vs. the levels seen going back to Jan ‘18.

    From Goldman, we switch to JPMorgan’s Prime desk which writes that in light of the volatility we’ve continued to see in equity markets recently, “it’s interesting to note that while we didn’t see clear signs of consistent HF capitulation a couple weeks ago, post some dip buying 2 weeks ago, we have also not seen a desire to add much additional risk over the past week.”

    If anything, the bank notes that “sell the rally” behavior has been apparent in some parts of the market (generally in the US and somewhat specifically in Tech).

    So what has JPM Prime seen, what has it not seen, and what is it watching that could have broader HF & market implications?

    What have we seen recently?

    • Buy the dip & sell the rally behavior
    • In US, a recent shift to selling Value (but Growth sold as well). That said, Tech still most bought in past month (albeit recent selling into strength) with Banks also bought over the past week and month
    • In Europe, re-buying of Banks (two weeks ago) and continued selling of Luxury Goods
    • Leverage fairly stable with Quants adding most to exposure and increasing gross leverage
    • Performance above the worst levels YTD, but still challenging for L/S and better for Quants & Multi-Strats

    What have we not seen (which are notable in light of market sell-off recently)?

    • Broad de-grossing or persistently large net selling
    • Outsized hedging via ETF shorts
    • Recent selling areas that have underperformed (e.g. software, exp software, biotech, semis) and a lack of buying Energy despite strong performance

    What JPM is watching for in the near term?

    1. High Vol / High SI stocks – is the bottom in, especially relative to the broader market? A rally in “risky” factors could be helpful for Equity L/S longs, but it still seems too early to say whether or not we’ve seen the low for these factors
    2. Could a rally in shorts cause broader de-grossing? Shorts have been the common factor helping HF performance across strategies in recent months…but if this reverses and hits all strategies, could this cause a broader de-gross event?
    3. What would happen during a “double dip” (i.e. a second market drawdown) that puts the S&P near or below the Jan lows? How would funds react? Historically, many of the short term rallies (c. 5-6%) in markets post initial decline have been followed by a second drawdown of c. 10% (based on 23 events since 1990)

    In general, JPM concludes that there were some data points across volatility metrics, retail & ETF flows, as well as a few HF-related points that suggested a fairly negative change in positioning right near the Jan low. Thus, there might still be room for further upside in near term, but how the market rallies and whether we see a “double dip” will be important to watch.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 20:00

  • NPR Declares Using Wrong Color Emojis Is Probably Racist
    NPR Declares Using Wrong Color Emojis Is Probably Racist

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    In another example of the establishment left’s obsessive grift with race and social segregation, publicly funded NPR published a story claiming that if you use the wrong colour emoji in text messages in relation to your own skin colour, you are probably a racist.

    In the article titled  “Which skin color emoji should you use? The answer can be more complex than you think”, writers Alejandra Marquez, Janse Patrick Jarenwattananon, and Asma Khalid (it took three of them to take on this weighty subject) argue that choosing to use a yellow emoji, rather than a white, brown or black one is “the neutral option” that will leave the respondent free to “focus on the message” rather than race.

    Of course, any rational person wouldn’t immediately see an emoji in a text and start thinking about race. Not these taxpayer funded hacks though.

    They even went around interviewing people for the piece.

    One interviewee said “I present as very pale, very light skinned. And if I use the white emoji, I feel like I’m betraying the part of myself that’s Filipino.”

    The interviewee continued, “But if I use a darker color emoji, which maybe more closely matches what I see when I look at my whole family, it’s not what the world sees, and people tend to judge that.”

    OMG, what a terrible dilemma to be in.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The article suggests that choosing a specific colour emoji “can be a simple texting shortcut for some, but for others, it opens a complex conversation about race and identity.”

    For who? Grifters writing for NPR and the mentally ill?

    Sarai Cole, an opera singer in Germany (Yes they interviewed someone in Germany for this too) stated “I have some friends who use the brown ones, too, but they are not brown themselves. This confuses me.”

    “She was not offended when a non-brown friend used a dark emoji”, the article states, adding she just “would like to understand why.”

    The nonsense continues, “Zara Rahman, a researcher and writer in Berlin, argues that the skin tone emojis make white people confront their race as people of color often have to do.”

    Rahman adds “I think it’s more one of those places where we just have to think about who we are and how we want to represent our identities, and maybe it does change depending on the season; depending on the context.” 

    What?

    Over to you the internet:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 19:30

  • Forget Burrow & Stafford, Brady Jerseys Still In High Demand
    Forget Burrow & Stafford, Brady Jerseys Still In High Demand

    In a few short hours, the Cincinnati Bengals will face off against the Los Angeles Rams in the 56th Super Bowl, arguably the biggest event of the year in U.S. sports. However, as Statista’s Florian Zandt shows in the chart below, our chart shows, only one athlete playing for either of the two finalists ranked in the top 8 of the highest-selling NFL jerseys in the last week of the regular season according to data from Fanatics, the company behind nflshop.com.

    The first spot was claimed by a very familiar face once again.

    Infographic: Brady Jerseys Still in High Demand | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    This face, of course, belongs to star quarterback Tom Brady, who announced his retirement on February 1, 2022 after 22 seasons. Brady spent his last two seasons at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with whom he won the last Super Bowl and is widely regarded as one of the best quarterbacks of all time. While his legacy as an athlete is largely undisputed, the now-former NFL player is not without controversy off the field: Brady has been good friends with former President Donald Trump since 2001, although he did decline a speaker’s role at the 2020 Republican National Convention and hasn’t officially endorsed Trump’s presidential races in 2016 and 2020.

    Coming in second after Brady in terms of jersey sales is Ben Roethlisberger, moving up three ranks from the week prior. Both sale increases might be related to one similarity between the two players: Just like Brady, Roethlisberger retired at the end of the 2021/2022 season after spending 18 years with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The sole player from a Super Bowl competitor in the top 8 jersey ranking is Ja’marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals. In his first season, the wide receiver broke several NFL rookie records, including most receiving yards in a game.

    Even though the final game of the NFL playoffs is still immensely popular in the U.S., its viewership numbers have dwindled since 2015. In 2021, roughly 91 million viewers from the U.S. watched the Super Bowl, while ad revenue amounted to roughly $485 million.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 19:00

  • Morgan Stanley: The Amount Of Hiking Needed To Contain Inflation Will Soon Stall The Economy
    Morgan Stanley: The Amount Of Hiking Needed To Contain Inflation Will Soon Stall The Economy

    Last week, for the first time since the current tightening frenzy began, Goldman warned that the Fed’s aggressive tightening may could to a hard landing. Not surprisingly, just a few days later, the bank slashed its year-end S&P target and now warns that in a recession the S&P could tumble to 3,600.

    Now, it’s Morgan Stanley’s turn as the following Sunday Start note by the bank’s Chief US Economist  Seth Carpenter, reveals.

    Rising Inflation, Rising Risks

    Over the past half year, we and many central banks have serially revised our inflation forecasts higher. As inflation has continued to surprise to the upside, markets have priced in more rate hikes and an earlier onset of hiking by many DM central banks. How much is too much? That question needs to be asked for both market pricing and the economy.

    Last week’s US CPI print was the most recent of these upside surprises. Of course, auto prices softened amid mounting evidence that supply chains are slowly normalizing, but on the heels of the CPI report, our US team revised up its inflation forecast for three reasons:

    • The first is a simple mark-to-market of an upside surprise.
    • Second, the annual revision to the weights for the price index means that our forecast for the components of inflation will result in a higher index.
    • And finally, rent inflation has stayed high, and in our forecast we have extended the timeline for that pressure. This third reason is particularly important because it reflects macro, cyclical inflation that will not recede with healing supply chains.

    The upside surprise to CPI means the risks to our Fed call are even more skewed to further hiking. The US team’s baseline call is for four 25bp hikes and the initiation of quantitative tightening (QT) around mid-year. So why not build in more hikes? Our central bank forecasts result from overlaying our reading of the policy reaction function on our economic forecasts – especially for inflation. Consider the typically hawkish Esther George, who said that QT should allow for a flatter path of rate hikes. The market is pricing an even chance of a 50bp hike at the March meeting, a view that we have resisted. Front-loading the tightening has appeal with inflation risks skewed to the upside, but much Fed communication has tilted away from such a move, echoing the cautious tone that Chair Powell struck at the last press conference.

    The Bank of England has already hiked twice and initiated its QT, but markets still expect more hiking than we do. The markets have priced in roughly 85bp of hikes over the next 12 months, while we expect somewhat less. Of course, we could be wrong, and markets could continue to be right. But most of the excess inflation in the UK remains in core goods, and if supply chains are normalizing as our index implies, inflation should underperform market expectations later in the year. The BoE appears to share our view, as its latest inflation expectations based on market pricing show inflation undershooting its target. The uncertainty surrounding inflation, however, skews the risks to more hiking rather than less.

    The ECB was the last of this group to execute a hawkish pivot. Our European economics team revised its ECB call last week, forecasting an end to QE by September and rate hikes starting in December that bring the deposit rate to zero in 1Q23. The persistence of the inflation overshoot drove the pivot, and while continued upside surprises could lead to more, for the ECB there is another consideration. Negative rates in the eurozone impose costs on banks and are politically unpopular. Hiking from negative to zero has a lower threshold than hiking above zero, so getting to zero could happen faster than we expect. Regardless, we expect the ECB to pause at zero as the uncertainty settles down. If our forecast for goods inflation proves right, and if oil and gas prices stabilize, that pause in 2023 could last for some time.

    It is hard to argue that risks are not still skewed to the upside. Even if market pricing has not gone too far, before long we will have to confront the risk I noted in the Sunday Start two weeks ago. The amount of hiking needed to bring inflation down will soon approach the amount that stalls the economy.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 18:35

  • GOP Senate Candidate Unveils "Let's Go Brandon" Super Bowl Ad
    GOP Senate Candidate Unveils “Let’s Go Brandon” Super Bowl Ad

    US Senate candidate Dave McCormick will debut a multi-million dollar ad during the Super Bowl tonight featuring a “Let’s go, Brandon” advertisement summarizing the failures of President Biden and Democrats, according to Fox News. 

    McCormick, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates (one of the largest hedge funds in the world), paid millions of dollars for a 30-second ad that will be featured during the Super Bowl in the Pittsburgh area on NBC platforms. The ad lists “record inflation,” Afghanistan withdrawal debacle, Facebook and other Silicon Valley companies “silencing conservative voices,” out-of-control trade deficit, widespread violent crime, and the southern border crisis. 

    The video concludes with, “This is so much bigger than Brandon.” 

    “Let’s go Brandon” has become a rallying cry for those on the right. The slogan debuted after a mainstream news reporter tried to cover up the crowd chanting “F*** Joe Biden” by saying they’re shouting “Let’s go Brandon” while interviewing racer Brandon Brown. 

    McCormick is running for Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey’s seat, an anti-Trumper who voted to convict the former president for the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots. 

    “The only reason worth watching today is to hear the chant. I haven’t watched since the early days of kneeling,” said a commenter on the Fox News article. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 18:10

  • Yielding Digital Assets Are The Replacement For A Broken 60/40 Balanced Portfolio
    Yielding Digital Assets Are The Replacement For A Broken 60/40 Balanced Portfolio

    By Marcel Kasumovich, Head of Research at One River Asset Management

    The Great Financial Inflation has compelled investors into passive portfolios in our view. Bonds are no longer assets to balance portfolio risk, as seen so far this year. Not surprisingly, investors are searching for replacements to bond holdings.

    1/ Portfolios, we have a problem. U.S. household financial assets have risen to nearly 5-times nominal GDP in the Great Financial Inflation. So great is the financial inflation, households find themselves (perhaps unintentionally) with a whopping 49.2% allocation to cash, cash-equivalent assets, and bonds (Figure 1). This comes at a time when macro policies are resolutely committed to multi-generational financial repression. For all the hawkish hype, bond markets are convinced that the next easing cycle will come in 2023 and that long-term policy rates will remain well below inflation. This is strongly counter to Fed guidance. We see no historical precedent.

    Figure 1: Great Financial Inflation: Large Bond Holdings

    Source: Federal Reserve Board. St. Louis Federal Reserve. One River Digital Calculations. Provided for illustrative purposes only. See important disclosures at the end of this article.

    2/ So, financial markets are telling us that nearly 50% of household assets are expected to lose money in real terms in the decades ahead. It is not just a U.S.-asset problem – shorter-term real yields are a global phenomenon (Figure 2). The Great Financial Inflation has masked the misallocation – long gone are the days of diversification. A 60-40% equity-bond portfolio returned 15% last year with a coincident rise in equity and bond valuations. Bonds have taken on equity-like return characteristics – the 60-40% portfolio is unbalanced. No doubt, the drawdown in 60-40% portfolios to start this year was on par with crisis periods – we were only missing the crisis – with equities and bonds both sharply retracing in January.

    Figure 2: Problem: Low Short-Term Yields, Inflation Taxing Bond Portfolios

    Source: Bloomberg. One River Digital Calculations as of February 9, 2022. MKT L-T FED DOT is the 5y5y OIS forward to imply the long-term Federal funds policy rate. L-T inflation is 5y5y forward inflation.

    3/ Are digital assets a potential solution to balance portfolio risk? Yes. But the solution has a more subtle first step: yield. Directional exposure to bitcoin and the One River Digital Core Index seeks to offer diversification properties over the course of market cycle. However, shorter-term cyclical correlations are still quite high. Daily bitcoin returns year-to-date have a 53% correlation to US equity returns and a 36% correlation to US fixed income. Not all investors are searching for more risk, slowing the institutional adoption to directional digital asset exposure. Ethereum’s migration to proof of stake will mark a milestone, transforming ether into a bond-like asset. But even then, the yield from staking is low relative to the ether’s volatility.

    4/ A more natural first step for some investors is to focus on yield derived from the digital ecosystem. Ideally, a yield investment would avoid any directional exposure and offer an income-like cashflow that is familiar to institutional investors. It would bring digital assets to investment committees in a low-risk manner, a more natural fit for their mandates (What’s Taking So Long? here). It was missing – an uncorrelated, low-risk, liquid yield fund without direct digital asset exposure. So, we built it: the One River Digital Income Fund. The objective was clear – deliver a low-risk yield solution in the digital ecosystem. The lowest end of the risk spectrum is the natural starting point – risk can be added alongside the evolution of investor appetites easily enough.

    5/ Digital Income is a short-term yield fund. The Fund seeks to generate yield by providing a U.S. dollar loan to high quality borrowers in the digital ecosystem. The loan’s safety is achieved by over-collateralizing the loan through high-quality liquid digital assets, initially only bitcoin. The Fund does not take possession of the bitcoin and thus is not a money transmitter, an important consideration in the context of future regulation. Instead, the liquid collateral is held by a third party with conditions on  when collateral can be liquidated (Figure 3). Our process selects known, researched, and regulated counterparties. Investors are granted the added security by over-collateralization of a liquid asset with 24-hour margining, 365 days a year.

    Figure 3: Solution: Digital Income, Low Risk Strategy in the Digital Ecosystem

    Source: One River Digital. This chart is provided for informational purposes only and represents a simplified description. The above investment strategy may differ from what is stated above at One River’s discretion. See important disclosures at the end of this article

    Here are the four most common questions on Digital Income:

    6/ First, what are the risks to the structure? The short answer – negligible. Digital Income builds layers of protection. The over-collateralization means that a default scenario is recognized well before collateral values breach the par value of a loan. This negates counterparty risk. Digital Income also allows for U.S. dollar collateral, which can be used to buffer a cascading decline in the price of bitcoin. Further, the loan has recourse beyond the collateral. These measures are designed to add safety. Not surprisingly, our estimates of the “risk premium” needed to compensate for collateral risk is comfortably less than ten basis points. The yield is not compensating lenders for a known risk premium. Instead, Digital Income will seek to provide income to lenders for intermediating activity in the digital ecosystem. And we believe there is a shortage of high-quality lenders doing so.

    7/ Second, where does the yield come from? Demand for capital in the digital ecosystem is robust, alongside high expected asset returns. This is the natural flipside of high asset volatility. In the early phase of lending growth, retail capital, such as yield-bearing digital deposits, were sufficient. However, as the system has matured, growth in loan demand has increased through digital banking partners, high net worth individuals, corporations, hedge funds and family offices. Active loans for Genesis Global Trading, for instance, are approaching $10 billion, an increase from less than $1 billion at the start of last year (Figure 4). Rapid and broadening growth in digital assets will require substantial debt capital, including attractive, low-risk rates for institutional investors.

    Figure 4: Market Demand, Shortage of High-Quality Lenders

    Source: Genesis Global Trading as of September 2021.

    8/ What is the right benchmark to compare Digital Income? Digital Income is a quarterly fund and will be compared to cash-equivalents such as the Bloomberg 1-to-3-month U.S. Treasury bill total return index. We anticipate Digital Income yields to be in the 4-12% range, varying pro-cyclically with the demand for capital. A rise in digital asset prices raises expected returns and the interest rates paid by the borrower, even with collateralization. Rates are driven by demand. However, it is important to value Digital Income relative to other benchmarks. One way is to infer unsecured funding rates from publicly traded digital asset companies. Five-year unsecured financing, inferred from one convertible bond, is running at ~4%, the low end of our expected range. Digital Income is secured and can still offer an attractive premium.

    9/ How does Digital Income fit into a portfolio? This is a subtle benefit. Typically, credit and risk assets co-move. As equity asset prices decline, credit spreads widen. This is a mathematical truism of credit spreads– it is equivalent to being long a risk-free asset and short an equity put. But this is not how yields in digital assets behave. Figure 5 illustrates the implied yield in bitcoin futures against high-yield corporate borrowing costs. Most of the time, there is no correlation. However, digital asset yields decline alongside the fall in the demand for borrowing in sell-off periods for risk assets and widening in credit spreads. Digital Income spreads are counter-cyclical, narrowing as asset prices decline. This behavior is more like a Treasury bill than credit.

    Figure 5: How Do Spreads Behave? Opposite of Credit!

    Source: Bloomberg. One River Digital Calculations. 2018 to 2021. The above graph demonstrates implied yield in bitcoin futures against high-yield corporate borrowing costs, both in percent. The bitcoin futures’ yield is a five-day rolling average of the daily annualized yield implied by the ratio of the one-month rolling bitcoin future to the spot bitcoin price.

    10/ The beginning is a good place to start. That is precisely what we are doing with Digital Income – we are defining the lowest risk point of the digital asset yield curve. Doug Wilson, the portfolio manager, executed our first loans this week with research and operational tools in place. We believe that this will be a comfortable step into the digital ecosystem for institutional investors. And it will also be a natural point from which to migrate out the risk spectrum, lowering collateralization rates to enhance yields and moving into credit provision through bitcoin bond-like structures. Bonds are a problem, and we believe Digital Income is a solution.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 17:45

  • USDA Suspends Mexican Avocado Imports, Stokes Yet More Food Inflation
    USDA Suspends Mexican Avocado Imports, Stokes Yet More Food Inflation

    The U.S. suspended all imports of Mexican avocados that could send prices to near-record highs in the coming weeks on diminishing supplies if the ban remains in place. The reason for the import halt is a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) inspector was threatened by what is presumed to be drug cartel members. 

    “U.S. health authorities…made the decision after one of their officials, who was carrying out inspections in Uruapan, Michoacan, received a threatening message on his official cellphone,” Mexico’s Agriculture Department said in a statement. –AP News 

    The surprise halt comes as the price of a 20-pound box of avocados from the state of Michoacan, Mexico (the central hub of Mexican avocado production) is approximately $26.89, the highest ever for this time of year with data going back to 1998.

    This year alone, avocado prices are up 31%. The import ban came on the eve of the Super Bowl and may send spot prices to record highs on the prospects of tighter supplies. 

    Supply woes aren’t expected to affect Super Bowl consumption since those avocados had already been shipped, but there are concerns disruptions could be seen in the weeks ahead (if the import ban remains in place). 

    The ban also comes as the Avocados From Mexico association unveiled its Super Bowl ad that will be shown during the game. 

    Violence against USDA inspectors is nothing new since the Michoacan state is known for cartel turf wars. In 2019, a team of inspectors was threatened by a cartel. 

    USDA wrote in a memo at the time, “For future situations that result in a security breach, or demonstrate an imminent physical threat to the well-being of APHIS personnel, we will immediately suspend program activities.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 17:27

  • Zelensky Invites Biden To Visit Ukraine In "Coming Days" In Pushback Against 'Imminent' Invasion Fears
    Zelensky Invites Biden To Visit Ukraine In “Coming Days” In Pushback Against ‘Imminent’ Invasion Fears

    update(5:10pmET): During their Sunday phone call Ukraine’s President Zelensky asked Biden to visit Kiev in person amid continuing White House claims that a Russian invasion is set to happen “any day” now. 

    Saying that major Ukrainian cities are “under safe protection,” Zelensky suggested that a visit of the US president in person would stop the spread of panic and prevent escalation. “I am convinced that your visit to Kyiv in the coming days… would be a powerful signal and help stabilize the situation,” Zelensky was quoted as saying in the call.

    “We will stop any escalation. The Ukrainian capital, Kiev, other cities in our country – Kharkov and Lvov, Dnepr and Odessa – are under safe protection,” Zelensky told the US president. 

    Zelensky himself and other top Kiev officials have in the past days once again been urging Washington to calm down its rhetoric. On Saturday the Ukrainian leader publicly urged the US to provide evidence or any relevant intelligence to back its claims of an “imminent” Russian invasion. That Zelensky has now gone so far as to issue a personal invitation for Biden to travel to Ukraine is clearly a move aimed at directly combatting the White House’s persistent fear-mongering and overblown predictions regarding Russia’s intent. 

    As for the White House call readout, it was brief and scant on details, while again underscoring the path for diplomacy remains open:

    President Biden reaffirmed the commitment of the United States to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.  President Biden made clear that the United States would respond swiftly and decisively, together with its Allies and partners, to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine.  The two leaders agreed on the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence in response to Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s borders.

    Meanwhile, the below tweet from the Russian embassy in the UK is being seen by some as a “ray of hope” – strongly signaling there will be no Russian offensive: 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    However, speculation over the timing of the US-predicted Russian invasion scenario abounds…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    * * *

    Another Sunday, and Biden’s national security adviser is at it again making the rounds on the big network news shows, warning the Russian invasion will invade Ukraine “any day now” – at this point a familiar refrain we’ve heard for multiple weeks running…

    “We cannot perfectly predict the day, but we have now been saying for some time that we are in the window, and an invasion could begin, a major military action could begin by Russia in Ukraine any day now — that includes this coming week, before the end of the Olympics,” Jake Sullivan told CNN’s Jake Tapper.

    This latest round of breathless White House proclamations and predictions of the Russians are coming! began in earnest Friday afternoon when the administration told reporters that Putin has made the decision to launch a large military offensive.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Multiple countries have now followed Washington’s lead in drawing down embassy and diplomatic staff from Ukraine to get people “out of harm’s way” – with the latest over the weekend being Australia. This is what the alarmism and panic emanating from the White House has wrought…

    The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has ordered the evacuation of the Australian embassy in Kyiv, warning the situation in Ukraine has reached a dangerous stage.

    Australia’s foreign affairs minister, Marise Payne, says the government has directed the departure of embassy staff to a temporary office in Lviv, with the buildup of Russian troops on the border.

    “The situation is deteriorating and is reaching a very dangerous stage,” Morrison said on Sunday.

    This is the latest in a growing list of countries withdrawing embassy personnel including Israel, the UK, the Netherlands, Latvia, Japan and South Korea.

    But the all-important and central question that’s not being asked is once again: what’s the view from Kiev? What is the Ukrainian government’s reaction to the latest White House statements on the crisis? How about the President of Ukraine himself? 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Kiev is not too happy, and is demanding proof from US intelligence backing the new dire allegations that Russia is poised to go in:

    “There has been too much information about a full-scale war with Russia – even specific dates have been announced. We understand there are risks. If you have any additional information regarding the 100 percent guaranteed invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 16 February, please give it to us,” Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters on Saturday.

    Naturally, Ukraine’s leaders are trying to calm the panic which Washington pronouncements and the Western media echo chamber have created…

    Zelensky said he did not believe in the danger of a full-scale war at the moment. “I have to speak to the public with real information at hand. We receive information from many sources. We also have an intelligence service. I don’t think that it’s any worse than the intelligence services of other countries,” he noted.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And a fresh report from NBC News taken from the streets of Kiev suggests that many common Ukrainian citizens too can see through the hype:

    Now, as the West warns a fresh attack is a “distinct possibility” as soon as next week, many in Kyiv aren’t convinced.

    “I don’t believe that Russia is going to invade Kyiv. The situation is wound up from both sides,” Oleksandr Bovtach, 55, told NBC News. “The West and Putin are playing each other’s nerves.”

    Although some are wary of an invasion, few are preparing for that possibility.

    And notably a number of longtime Russia observers and mainstream journalists living on the ground in the region are beginning to have serious doubts…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As one foreign policy analyst observed Saturday, the situation ironically remains that “Everyone is predicting war between Russia and Ukraine except Russia and Ukraine.”

    Biden and Zelensky are expected to hold a phone call Sunday, where it’s likely the Ukrainian leader will ask for Biden for firm evidence backing the latest White House alarmist claims. This will likely be a repeat of the last call they held: Biden and Zelensky last spoke last month and it “did not go well,” a senior Ukrainian official told CNN at the time, amid disagreements over the “risk levels” of a Russian attack.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 17:10

  • With Money Flowing Into Stocks At A Record Pace, Goldman Does Not See A "Larger Correction" Taking Place
    With Money Flowing Into Stocks At A Record Pace, Goldman Does Not See A “Larger Correction” Taking Place

    On Friday we observed that something odd was happening in the market: while stocks were tumbling, pushing most tech names into a deep bear market amid the worst turmoil for risk assets in years, inflows into stocks – both institutional and retail – have been soaring, and according to EPFR data compiled by Bank of America, cumulative equity flows YTD in 2021 have hit a record $153bn, exceeding the pace of early-2021 (when the year started with $151bn in inflows, ahead of a record year of more than $1tn inflows).

    “How can this be”, we asked and answered that the catalyst behind this unprecedented scramble for risk “is that despite falling prices, investors are bailing on other even more impacted securities, and with a record outflows from money markets/cash as well as huge capital flight out of bond funds, this money has to go somewhere, and that “somewhere” is stocks for now, even though if the Fed is indeed set to hike 7 times this year and drain $2+ trillion from its balance sheet, the pain for stocks is only just starting.”

    Over the weekend, Goldman desk trader Scott Rubner picked up on this peculiar flow dynamic, and roughly around the time that Goldman’s chief (retail client facing) equity strategist David Kostin was cutting the bank’s year-end S&P price target to 4,900 from 5,100 (while warning that much more downside could be in place if a recession hits), Rubner wrote that “with money flowing into global equities “at extreme levels”, this would need to change before a larger correction can take place: I would turn bearish if the money slows or reverses” he said, adding that “portfolio rebalances of this size typically last for the full quarter (Q1 2022).” Rubner also reminds that the “headlines will continue to be robust through March (i.e., advisor quarter-end rebalancing) March 4th NFP, March 10th Feb CPI, March 16th FOMC Meeting, etc.”

    Here are the key observations from a still bullish Rubner, as the market continues to crack and remains unable sustain even a modest bounce:

    1. Global Equities logged a massive $46.571 Billion worth of inflows this week. This is the 4th largest weekly inflow into Global Equities on record. This works out to $9.3B worth of inflows per day this week. This increased by +220% week over week.

    2. Adjust for quarterly rebalances (inflows one week vs. outflows the next), this is the 2nd largest weekly inflow on record, after $58.087B, which happened this exact week in 2021 (2/10/2021).

    3. Global Equities have logged $152.50B worth of YTD inflows. This annualizes to $1.322 Trillion. There have been 27 trading days this year or $5.7B inflows per day.

    4. 2021 logged more equity inflows, $913 Billion, than the prior 25 years combined. 2022 is on pace to exceed this number by 45%.

    Rubner writes that “in 2009, I officially retired the term “Great Rotation” or the movement of capital out of fixed income into equities, from my weekly emails and IB chat rooms. I switched this portfolio shift into the “Wedge”, which was the movement of capital into bonds and cash, and out of equities.”

    But, as the Goldman trader notes, “if this shift of money continues at this rapid of a pace, I am adding back “Great Rotation” into the mix, as I expect the wedge needs to shrink given the trajectory of inflation.”

    5. Since January 1st 2019, 3 years ago, Cash has seen $1.897 Trillion worth of inflows, Bonds have seen $1.824 Trillion worth of inflows, and Equities just $632 Billion. This makes the GS wedge $3.08 Trillion.

    6. Goldman is are introducing the “anti-portfolio” asset allocation theme: “this has been the core of my zoom calls with allocators this week”, Rubner writes.

    Money Market Outflows

    7. Cash saw outflows of -$47.5B this week. This 100% funded the allocation to equities this week. Cash has seen substantial outflows YTD.

    Bond Outflows

    8. The current cash AUM is $4.593 Trillion, which clearly overstates “Cash on the sidelines”, but the point is that this a massive cash pile, earning now deeply negative inflation adjusted yield. $1.824 Trillion worth of cash was raised since 2019.

    9. Global Bond outflows are now accelerating. I have been looking at this chart for the last 19 years. It’s rare to see bond outflows. Global bonds have seen outflows every week of 2022. They happen in clusters. ie when CNBC says that the outlook for bond allocation is not positive, the “Robo-Advisor” ETF allocation will trim passive bond allocations. This is the anti-portfolio.

    10. Global Bonds have seen $1.897 Trillion worth of inflows in the last 3 years. This chart looks very “toppish”.

    Credit Outflows

    11. Global HY credit seems to be the place, which has benefited from this dynamic. Capital is rolling out of credit. I am popular among the crowd tracking “passive credit outflows”, which I am watching closely. Put open interest in most of these products is at record levels.

    Rest-of-World Equities

    12. Rest of World Equity Allocation is the anti-portfolio allocation. 2022 money is not going into growth/tech/USA.

    13. Non-USD Equity allocations have scope to add and this is where the $$ is flowing.

    14. Rubner writes that “Emerging Market Equities are resonating with clients. I sent out a note this week to asset allocators on Re-Emerging Markets. This is the most feedback that I have gotten on overall interest in EM again in years. The broad index has underperformed its historical relationship by 20% in the past year. (ie Brazil is up 17% YTD vs. SPX -5% YTD). There is anti-portfolio scope to add.”

    15. Does the inflow picture change in March? As Rubner concludes, “retail is deploying record capital into the equity market, as is corporates, and systematic supply has abated. Not all clear, but there is a lot of capital looking for a home.”

    * * *

    One final chart, this one from Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte, confirms what we said on Friday – that even though tapering should in theory hit risk assets, the hit to even more overvalued bonds will result in funds flowing from bonds to equities (as was historically the case) thereby keeping stocks and other risk assets artificially elevated on the back of continued selloff in bonds, until either the selling reverses fully or everything is finally dragged down together.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 17:00

  • Is It Possible For Putin To Get Crimea Without Force?
    Is It Possible For Putin To Get Crimea Without Force?

    Authored by Steven Kopits via AmericanThinker.com,

    Russian President Vladimir Putin is in a pickle.

    Having mobilized his forces, he has committed his prestige, and Russia’s, at the Ukrainian border. He can scarcely afford to pull back without a loss of face, certainly for himself, and possibly no less for Russia. Indeed, Russia’s self-conception may be on the line.

    On the other hand, invading Ukraine could become a disaster of epic proportions for Russia. There is much talk of the Russian army’s capability, but the underlying realities are sobering. Russia has a small economy, smaller than even that of Canada or South Korea. At $1.5 trillion, Russia’s GDP is one-fourteenth the size of the US economy, and its population is only half of America’s. Add in all of NATO and the disparity is even starker. NATO’s population is six times that of Russia, and its GDP is 25 times larger. The late senator John McCain was scarcely exaggerating when he called Russia a gas station masquerading as a country.

    Successfully invading Ukraine, therefore, requires either speed to conclusion or passivity from NATO and, most importantly, the United States. Like it or not, Russia cannot move without US acquiescence, not unless Putin is willing to risk unmitigated disaster. Moreover, the US and NATO do not have to win for Russia to lose. NATO can bankrupt Russia out of petty cash merely by keeping the Russians in the field. In such an event, gas and oil sales will prove problematic and, of course, Russia will be unable to borrow from international capital markets.

    Indeed, Russia will be entirely thrust upon the kindness of its neighbor, China’s President Xi Jinping. Such support could prove punishingly expensive. Xi can scarcely imagine his own equal, and he is certain that Putin is not that. Moreover, Xi has demonstrated a taste for real estate acquisitions, including the South China Sea and Taiwan.

    But Taiwan is small potatoes compared to the vast Russian lands north of China. This includes a Russian coastline extending to the Arctic, one that would enable China’s effective domination of Japan. Russia is playing the Big Fish but is as likely to end up on Xi’s dinner plate. The harsh reality is that no country in Europe covets Russian land but, sooner or later, Xi’s attention will turn to Russia’s vast and empty east.

    For Putin, this risks the worst of all worlds: A war in the west where Russia not only fails to secure Ukraine, but that also sees earlier gains in Crimea and Donbas reversed, along with the risk that NATO seizes Belarus, putting that country into the western camp. Russian weakness and dependence on Chinese support would make Moscow susceptible to China’s demands for compensation in the east. It is a nightmare scenario, but a not inconceivable outcome of a prolonged conflict in Ukraine.

    Nevertheless, the status quo is also unsatisfactory. Russia has struggled to integrate occupied Crimea and the Donbas region into the Russian economy. Fighting continues sporadically in the Donbas area, and more importantly, Ukraine has cut off Crimea’s water supply. Much of Crimean agriculture had been irrigated by a canal from the Dnipro River, which Ukraine cut off after Russia invaded the peninsula in 2014.

    Further, sanctions have depressed the Crimean tourist industry, a critical part of the economy there. Both Crimea and Donbas, therefore, appear to be continuing drains on the Russian treasury, although estimates differ. Some argue that the cost is negligible, but an annual burden of 2% of Russian GDP does not appear particularly implausible when subsidies, investments, and military costs are included.

    Consequently, Russia and Putin are facing the prospect of a lose-lose situation. If they fight and lose, Russia will suffer a historic setback. On the other hand, if Russia backs down, then its hold on Crimea may become increasingly precarious over time, particularly if Ukraine cozies up to the west. At best, the country would be stuck with a problematic status quo. At worst, Ukraine could leverage NATO support to put the squeeze on Moscow.

    Image: Vladimir Putin. YouTube screen grab.

    As a result, Putin finds himself in a situation in which he can neither advance nor retreat without cost, time may not be on his side, and the risks are hard to judge. For the moment, the Germans are dead at the switch, but what of the Biden administration?

    Washington has demonstrated weakness in foreign policy, notably by allowing the US to be ignominiously chased out of Afghanistan by a ragtag Taliban at a time when the US was neither taking casualties nor incurring extravagant costs. If the Biden administration exhibits such passivity in Ukraine and NATO sits on the sidelines, then Putin can take Ukraine and perhaps even Belarus and restore most of imperial Russia. But should Washington decide to intervene, the calculus is entirely different. Putin must weigh the risks.

    Biden should have been clear upfront: The US would not abide re-writing Europe’s borders in this fashion and would meet the Russians in the field. That might have prevented Putin from investing so much of his and Russia’s prestige into this perilous venture. However, it would not have addressed Russian concerns and, if the US is to veto Russian action, as the global hegemon, America is obligated to find some reasonable accommodation.

    It is important to emphasize that the US interest is not anti-Russian or pro-Ukrainian, or vice versa. America’s and NATO’s interest is in stability, normalcy, and peace. The intent is not only to integrate Ukraine into Europe but also to integrate Russia as well, such that its people should enjoy a status similar to that of, say, Hungarians or Poles. Gradual, steady progress towards prosperity in both Russia and Ukraine is the western interest, just as it is the interest of the Russian and Ukrainian people.

    Still, Russia’s status can only be normalized pursuant to a settlement of the status of Ukraine’s currently occupied lands. Russia will not give these back. It is a matter of national pride. The occupied lands may yet be lost in war, but no Russian leader—not Putin nor his successor—would willing cede Donbas and Crimea.

    What then should be done?

    Fortunately, title to property may be settled by means other than force. It may be purchased. The status of the occupied territories could be resolved with appropriate payment. A reasonable price might be set at 1-2% of Russia’s GDP for a quarter-century; call it $0.5 – $1.0 trillion over twenty-five years. This would still be vastly cheaper than an unsuccessful—or even successful—war in Ukraine and present far less risk.

    The move would pay for itself with lower costs associated with holding Crimea and through enhanced trade between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. It would allow Putin to claim a victory for a show of force and see a path back to a normalization of Russia’s status in Europe.

    Ukrainians may not be elated, but the reality is this: If Putin does not start a war, there appears no feasible path for Ukraine to reconquer the occupied territories. Neither the US nor NATO will underwrite such a venture. Meanwhile, Russia’s control over these territories will tend to create a fait accompli over decades, if not years. At some point, European leaders will tire of the whole matter and concede Russian hegemony over contested territories.

    Therefore, unless one is wildly optimistic about prospects for the re-conquest of occupied territories, Ukraine’s interest is to put a dollar value on the land and take the money. Ukraine’s GDP totals $160 bn/year, a little more than 10% that of Russia. An annual payment of $25 billion from Russia would amount to 16% of Ukraine’s GDP, and resolving the conflict should boost GDP by as much again. Thus, ceding Crimea and other negotiated lands to Russia should boost Ukrainian GDP by perhaps one-third. This would not be a bad deal for Ukraine, all things considered.

    Further, for the next quarter-century, ceding occupied lands to Russia through an agreement could be leveraged both to protect Ukrainian sovereignty and Finlandize Ukraine, subject to acceptable behavior from Moscow. That would provide plenty of time for the various parties to become accustomed to the new status quo.

    For Russians, such a deal would mean tempering ambitions for reunifying Greater Russia, while Ukrainians would have to accept compensation for territorial losses. It would not be everything, but it is certainly far better than the potential disaster of a European war.

    American and NATO interests dictate that the dispute between Ukraine and Russia be settled on reasonable, financial terms rather than through force. Our diplomacy should be geared to support that outcome.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 16:30

  • Super Bowl Pales In Comparison To The Biggest Game In Soccer
    Super Bowl Pales In Comparison To The Biggest Game In Soccer

    While Americans are getting ready for what they consider the biggest sporting event of the year, the 56th Super Bowl, the rest of the world couldn’t care less.

    Well that may be a bit harsh, but, as Statista’s Felix Richter notes, from an American perspective it’s easy to overestimate the global appeal of the biggest game in (American) football.

    Speaking of football, soccer, i.e. the proper kind of football from a European perspective, far exceeds the Super Bowl in terms of global interest.

    Infographic: Super Bowl Pales in Comparison to the Biggest Game in Soccer | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The FIFA World Cup Final, played every four years to culminate a month-long tournament of 32 nations, really is the biggest game in the world, regularly reaching more than a billion people across the globe.

    According to FIFA, the 2018 World Cup final between France and Croatia reached an average live audience of 517 million viewers, with more than than 1.1 billion people tuning in over its 90 minutes.

    The 2021 Super Bowl pales in comparison, having had an average TV viewership of 91.6 million in the U.S. plus an estimated 30 to 50 million viewers around the world.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 16:00

  • Pentagon Docs Shed New Disturbing Light On Biden's Afghan Evacuation Disaster
    Pentagon Docs Shed New Disturbing Light On Biden’s Afghan Evacuation Disaster

    Authored by Kyle Anzalone via AntiWar.com,

    A recently declassified Pentagon report on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has renewed attacks against President Joe Biden from across the political spectrum. No doubt, the lack of foresight on the rapid collapse of the US-built Afghan government is inexcusable and created needless chaos.

    New reporting on the August 26 suicide bombing at the Kabul airport – an attack that killed more than 150 people – suggests that some victims may have died of gunshot wounds, rather than the explosion. While the Pentagon has acknowledged that American and British troops fired “a small number of warning shots” from opposite sides of the crowd, it maintains that no Afghans were killed by US forces. Doctors in Kabul tell a different story.

    Kabul airport evacuation, via FT

    In interviews with ProPublica and Alive in Afghanistan, six physicians from three different hospitals in the Afghan capital dispute the Pentagon’s claim that casualties were inflicted solely by “explosively propelled ball bearings” used in the improvised bomb.

    “The doctors remained convinced that they saw wounds from bullets, not only ball bearings,” the outlets reported, adding “All said they had the experience necessary to make the distinction, having responded to numerous terrorist attacks and firefights in their medical careers.”

    At Kabul’s Emergency Surgical Centre – an Italian-run facility which primarily treats war victims – doctors say they received 10 people killed by gunfire to the head, neck and chest. Others were also treated for non-fatal gunshot wounds.

    “It was really a disaster situation,” said Dr. Mir Abdul Azim, a senior surgeon at the Centre who treated victims of the airport attack. While he noted that no bullets were recovered from his patients or the deceased, he said “he could tell that the wounds were caused by bullets and not ball bearings from the shape and size of the entry and exit wounds, along with other factors such as the tissue damage he saw.”

    The suffering inflicted on Afghans is not limited to those killed during the withdrawal or who starve in their homeland under American sanctions. Thousands who were evacuated during the hasty US pull-out now find themselves stranded in the UAE. The conditions for the 10,000 people warehoused for months in the Emirates are so poor that protests have broken out, with many directing their anger toward Washington.

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    Via Axios: Leaked notes from a White House Situation Room meeting the day before Kabul fell shed new light on just how unprepared the Biden administration was to evacuate Afghan nationals who’d helped the United States in its 20-year war against the Taliban.

    The marooned Afghans – among them women and children – say they are in “prison” and mentally suffering, some claiming they have been deprived of medical care in interviews with the Wall Street Journal.

    While many of the attacks against Biden’s withdrawal are little more than cynical ploys to label the Democratic president as ‘weak’ – some even exploiting Afghan suffering to press for more aggressive stances against China and Russia – he cannot avoid responsibility for the broken promises to thousands of refugees still trapped in prison-like conditions.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 15:30

  • 'Freedom Convoy' Spreads As New Canada-US Border Crossing Shuts Down
    ‘Freedom Convoy’ Spreads As New Canada-US Border Crossing Shuts Down

    Update (1523ET): About 2,500 miles west of the Ambassador Bridge, in Surrey, British Columbia, and Blaine, Washington, another “Freedom Convoy” emerged Saturday as demonstrators against medical tyranny have managed to shutter “multiple border crossings,” according to AP News. 

    Data from geolocation technology company TomTom shows part of Highway 15 and the border crossing remained closed as of 1141 PST (or 1441 ET). 

    Various highway traffic cameras (data sourced from the British Columbia government) confirm a stretch of Highway 15 remains shut down. 

    Twitter is full of pictures and videos from Saturday of thousands of people standing up against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s vaccine mandates and restrictions, causing massive traffic congestion on the border. 

    Thousands gathered on the highway yesterday, creating a miles-long gridlock. 

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    As of this morning, demonstrators are still blocking the stretch of the highway. 

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    At this point, Trudeau’s government is going to have to play the so-called game “Whac-A-Mole” as freedom-loving people from across the country, spontaneously assemble and disrupt critical border crossings between Canada and the US. 

    Simply put, the working man (and woman) are revolting against the Trudeau administration​​​​​​.

    * * * 

    More than 12 hours after police in Windsor, Ontario arrived on the scene to shut down “Freedom Convoy” protests at the Ambassador Bridge, it appears the crowds have finally dispersed in a predawn raid. 

    As police arrested the last remaining demonstrators for a protest that has continued for nearly a week and created substantial disruption for commercial traffic across the US-Canada border crossing, the focus shifted to demonstrators who gathered on Ottawa’s Parliament Hill as protests continued for another weekend.

    According to the Associated Press, which cited television footage, police arrested the dozen or so die-hard protesters who remained defiantly at the Bridge until the very end.

    Television images showed police arresting the few protesters who remained just after dawn near the Ambassador Bridge linking Detroit and Windsor, Ontario — the busiest border crossing to the U.S.

    Only two pickup trucks and less than a dozen protesters blocked the road to the bridge before police moved in.

    Police on Saturday had persuaded demonstrators to move their pickup trucks and others cars that they used at the entrance to the crossing that sees 25% of all trade between the two countries, though it remained closed.

    Meanwhile, videos from Parliament Hill flooded social media as the police put the number of demonstrators at 4K – likely a conservative estimate. The protests, which have been going on since late January, have seen similar numbers during past weekends. All told, this is at least the third weekend that demonstrators have gathered.

    The “anti-vaccine” and “anti-lockdown” – according to the AP – demonstrations in Canada continued to inspire similar movements abroad, from Paris to New Zealand, and beyond.

    VIdeo from Parliament Hill showed thousands of people who came together to dance, sing, and engage in that new national pastime – mocking the CBC, which apparently blacked out coverage of the protests.

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    Even a former correspondent complained.

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    Meanwhile…

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    At one point, the demonstration seemed to center around Ottawa’s memorial to the Canadian war dead.

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    The NYT and others reported that protests inspired by the truckers in Ottawa, Coutts, and Windsor have begun to pop up at border areas across Canada.

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    Here’s a map published by the NYT Sunday morning:

    Source: NYT

    There’s another detail the NYT has been forced to begrudgingly admit: the percentage of Canadians who support doing away with all COVID restrictions has risen in recent weeks. Remember, the protests started as a reaction to unfair vaccination restrictions that would have made unvaccinated truckers essentially unable to earn their livelihoods. But it has certainly morphed into something bigger.

    As Tamara Lich, one of the organizers of the protests, said in an interview with the NYT, the protesters and their supporters are determined to continue until the government – and PM Justin Trudeau, who has been in hiding after testing positive for COVID despite being recently boosted – meets their demands.

    “Our departure will be based on the prime minister doing what is right, ending all mandates and restrictions on our freedoms,” Ms. Lich said at a news conference in Ottawa last week, during which she did not take questions. “We will continue our protest until we see a clear plan for their elimination.”

    Amazingly, the NYT managed to find a Canadian man who emigrated in the early 1950s after serving in the German military during WWII. Having “grown up under Hitler,” 93-year-old Karl Braeker wanted to visit the protests hanging out on Ottawa’s Parliament Hill to see for himself whether the demonstrators were truly “white nationalists” and “nazis” like some media reports have claimed. In his considered opinion, they are not.

    Karl Braeker, 93, sat on an orange wool blanket at the Centennial Fountain under a dusting of snow. Originally from Germany, Mr. Braeker said he had served in the German military as a teenager under the Nazis, and emigrated to Canada in 1951.

    “It is very deep what brings me here: I grew up under Hitler in Germany,” he said. He had come in person concerned over reports that the protesters shared white nationalistic or Nazi sentiments. From his vantage point on the fountain, he said, he felt they did not.

    Watching the protests, he said, had “brought back all of my P.T.S.D.” from serving in Hitler’s army. He said that he had not slept for days when the protest first began — particularly after hearing that swastikas had been seen on flags. He asked his son to drive him here to see for himself. “I’ve always loved Canada for the freedom,” Mr. Braeker said. “I had to come here to see.”

    Meanwhile, a live feed of the Ambassador Bridge showed that everything looked quiet.

    Of course, now that the protest has been cleared at the Ambassador Bridge, the Canadian government will no longer be able to blame the truckers for their economic woes. It’s also worth noting that the protests have spread in the US, where the Department of Homeland Security is scrambling to stop truckers and their supporters from protesting at the Super Bowl.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 15:24

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Feb 13

Today’s News 13th February 2022

  • Durham: Clinton Allies Spied On The Executive Office Of The President
    Durham: Clinton Allies Spied On The Executive Office Of The President

    Submitted by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

    The Michael Sussmann case is heating up.

    On February 11, 2022, Durham filed the Government’s Motion to Inquire into Potential Conflicts of Interest in the Michael Sussmann case. Read it here. As you might recall, Sussmann was charged with giving false statements to then-FBI General Counsel James Baker regarding the interests he was representing in pushing to the FBI the Alfa Bank/Trump Organization hoax. More background information on the Sussmann indictment can be found here.

    The basis for the motion is that Sussmann’s current counsel, Latham & Watkins LLP (Latham) might have a conflict of interest because Latham previously represented Perkins Coie and Mark Elias “in this investigation.” It is alleged that Latham “likely possesses confidential knowledge about Perkins Coie’s role in, and views concerning, Sussmann’s past activities.” (Cleaned up.)

    There might also be a conflict because Latham was representing both the Clinton Campaign and Hillary for America in the Special Counsel’s investigation. Durham observes that Latham’s duties to these former clients “might cause its interests to diverge from those of [Sussmann].”

    Why might there be a conflict?

    Because Durham might offer evidence at trial he obtained from the Clinton Campaign and Hillary for America.

    We previously discussed how Rodney Joffe (identified as Tech Executive-1 in the Sussmann indictment and in the latest filing discussing the conflict) exploited proprietary – and perhaps classified – data provided by DARPA to further their own political attacks, and how that might result in charges. It was later confirmed that two former DARPA employees have given grand jury testimony, so it appears Durham is following this track.

    I provide that background because of what we just learned. Durham also divulged, to an extent, that contractors and tech experts – those same people involved in the Alfa Bank hoax – essentially spied on President Trump.

    According to Durham, Joffe and his associates exploited internet data from “the Executive Office of the President of the United States” to further their own political agenda. They had come to possess this data as part of a “sensitive arrangement” with the U.S. government. As Durham explains:

    Joffe and his associates manipulated this information to further a conspiracy theory that Trump and those in Trump’s orbit were continuing their secret backchannels with the Russians. This was repackaged with the Alfa Bank hoax and given to Sussmann, who then laundered it to the CIA on February 9, 2017. Sussmann alleged to the CIA that the data showed “that Trump and/or his associates were using supposedly rare, Russian-made wireless phones in the vicinity of the White House and other locations.” Durham “identified no support for these allegations.”

    One can’t help ask why Joffe (via Sussmann) risked legal exposure to continue to push false Trump-Russia allegations before and after the 2016 election. First to the FBI in 2016 then to the CIA in 2017. It seems that Joffe was desperate, and his desperation only increased after Trump’s election.

    The source of Joffe’s desperation? It’s speculation at this point, but perhaps it goes to the origins of the purported Russia/DNC hack. To revise a previous question we have asked:

    What if Crowdstrike was a patsy, there to unknowingly reach false conclusions of a “Russian hack” based on fraudulent information provided to them by Rodney Joffe and Perkins Coie and the DNC/Hillary Campaign?

    We don’t have an answer to that question – yet. Maybe we never will. But if anything, it seems likely that we will see an indictment of Rodney Joffe.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 00:27

  • Separation Or Purge? Sharing A Society With The Political Left Is Impossible
    Separation Or Purge? Sharing A Society With The Political Left Is Impossible

    By Brandon Smith of Alt-Market

    Of all the social drivers in history the concept of freedom is the most powerful and fascinating. There are many observable objective truths in the world and it’s always important to recognize them, but the idea of freedom is more rare because it is a universal SUBJECTIVE truth. Meaning, it exists inherently in the majority of individuals; we don’t learn it, we just know it instinctively. Most of us share the experience but there is no microscope or telescope in existence that can observe that experience. We just have to trust it, or perhaps, have faith.

    Freedom is not taught to us, we are born with the idea already hardwired. If anything, it has to be conditioned out of us.

    We can see the aftereffects of the human experience of freedom in the great upheavals that occur when our societies become too rigid, too controlled and too authoritarian. Some will argue that tyrants have no concept of freedom and this debunks the notion that it’s an inherent psychological quality, but this is a misconception. Many tyrants love freedom, but only for themselves. Like an obsessive compulsive, when the average authoritarian sees free movement within the rest of society all he sees is chaos that needs to be micro-managed. He is so mentally unhinged by the existence of independent activity that he is compelled to crush it and impose his brand of “order.”

    If you want to understand the thinking process of the political left today, this is where you need to start. They believe only certain special people deserve to have freedom (or deserve to live), and they are of course part of that group. The rest of us can’t be trusted with freedom because we “think the wrong way,” and so we need to be corralled and fenced in.

    This is not to say that some structure within society is wrong, it can be a good thing, but not when it is imposed by an elitist minority of psychopathic people. There will never be any justice within such a system, no fairness and no true progress. Authoritarianism is the opposite of progress; it is the antithesis, and yet these people call themselves “progressives.”

    Freedom requires boldness and courage because it demands personal responsibility. When you are free to make your own decisions you are also free to fail, and only you can be blamed for your own failures. This is a terrifying notion for most leftists and collectivists because they believe that they are owed a positive outcome regardless of their actions or merit. They believe it is their “right” to be taken care of by others if they are incapable of taking care of themselves, but this is not equality, this is “equity.” This is stealing wealth and opportunity from more worthy people in order to artificially inflate others that put in little or no effort.

    Meritocracy is the most equal system in existence because it is freedom based; equality of opportunity is the epitome of fairness; equity of outcome is the epitome of injustice.

    Leftists hyperfocus on race, skin color and sexual identity for this very reason. They are desperately searching for a way to circumvent the obstacles of freedom, merit and individualism. If everything in society can be reduced down to race, then personal accomplishment and responsibility are no longer relevant. In the mind of the leftist, if certain people are inherently oppressed and others are inherently oppressive, then equality of opportunity is not enough and equity of outcome must be enforced.

    Making everything about victim group status thereby erases freedom and meritocracy cannot function. All a person needs to do is say “I am oppressed, therefore I am entitled,” and if they meet the broad leftist criteria then they are handed a livelihood or success simply because they exist.

    I saw a commercial on YouTube a week ago for yet another social justice documentary titled ‘Everything’s Going To Be All White,’ once again attempting to pontificate on our supposed reign of dominance across every facet of the globe and I could not help but think this entire narrative is nothing more than a cowardly attempt to deflect responsibility. Yes, it’s also an attempt to divide and conquer western nations but how many people are actually watching these race hyped documentaries and TV shows un-ironically? According to the stats and reviews there aren’t very many.

    Nearly every claim made in these productions is based on previously debunked social justice misrepresentations of history from books like ‘White Fragility’ and movements like the 1619 Project. If you really want to get an accurate representation of US history in particular and the limited role slavery played in terms of modern social outcomes, then I suggest reading the works of Thomas Sowell, a brilliant black American economist and historian with no bias in his analysis.

    Slavery is a mere footnote in our past, not an all encompassing determinant of our present and future as leftists like to argue. There is no legal slavery in America, and there is no one alive today in America who has experience race based slavery or that has been affected by it. Slavery and racism were far more pervasive in nations of brown and black people in history. In fact, some of these countries still engage in various forms of slavery today. If you want to experience actual racism as a black or brown person then travel to a country like China and see how long it takes before you are kicked out of an establishment for your skin color.

    White people are not the problem, people who disrespect the benefits of freedom are the problem regardless of their skin.

    What we need to understand is that race and oppression propaganda is not really rooted in race and oppression. It appeals to a certain subset of our population because it offers them a way to rationalize their lack of merit and their fears of freedom and consequence. If you can blame white people for all your problems and have this be believed, then the temptation to fail is increased because there are no consequences. Why work hard to make something of yourself if you can do nothing and be rewarded anyway?

    By extension, the racism blame game is alluring to many in society because it can be used as a weapon to harm political enemies. When leftists complain about the evils of “white people” what they are really talking about are the “evils” of conservatives and others that do not conform to the leftist ideology. They rarely come right out and say it, but one day the documentaries will switch from “Dear White People” to “Dear Conservatives.” The fight has never been about race, it’s always been about ideals and principles and eliminating the ideals that contradict the leftist mission. This is why they are consistently hostile to anyone conservative, even more so if that person is black.

    The leftist agenda is all about diminishing freedom and societal respect for freedom by whatever means necessary. Everything is about management, everything is about centralization, everything is about control. Conservatives and many moderates stand in direct opposition to this.

    The most common mistake among newbies in the liberty movement is when they try to explain away leftist actions by bringing up the “false left/right paradigm.” These people don’t understand what this actually means. The left/right paradigm exists at the TOP of the social and political pyramid; top political and corporate leaders pretend to be in one party or the other while in reality they are all working together and implementing the same policies. At the bottom of the pyramid among regular people there is no false left/right paradigm – There is a very real left/right division.

    This is undeniable now in the face of the covid and vaccine mandates. For the longest time I have heard people claim that when the push for authoritarianism in the US arrived many conservatives would simple go along with it. Yet, today numerous conservative red states are fighting the mandates tooth and nail while leftist blue states have been suffocated by them. In fact, red states have acted as beacons of rebellion for the world – Without them it is unlikely that the Supreme Court would have dropped Biden’s federal vax mandates. The threat of war is tangible if such mandates are ever instituted, and the Supreme Court knows this.

    I have had people ask me in the past why there haven’t been any major actions on the part of conservatives in the US against the mandates and I have to break it to them that there ARE NO MANDATES in conservative places and there haven’t been for at least 18 months. None. Zero. Zip. We don’t need to protest because we stopped the mandates before they could take hold.

    As I have said from the very beginning of the pandemic response, if even a handful of states or countries can remain free from covid controls they will inspire people around the world and act as proof that the mandates are pointless. Today, as America continues to beat back the covid agenda there are mass protests in Canada and the UK has cut most of their covid restrictions. Freedom spreads like wildfire once the flames are sparked.

    Leftists hate this. Covid, like the fantasy of “institutional racism,” is a tempting vehicle to forward their ideology. If you can convince the public that they are a constant threat to themselves and each other, then it is a small matter to convince them that government needs to step in and protect society from itself and from notions of freedom that might put society at risk. Without covid as a foil the political left has nothing, and so they continue to perpetuate the lie that the virus is an imminent threat to the majority of people when the average Infection Fatality Rate is a tiny 0.27%.

    The real question here is, when a group of people hate freedom this much how is it possible to coexist with them? The answer is we can’t.

    Anyone who defends merit and liberty will always be a target of those that despise merit and liberty. They will never stop. They will forever be looking for ways to undermine both. If covid mandates and race based propaganda don’t work then they will search for another tool to do the job. If one can say anything “good” about leftists, it’s that they do not give up even when they are clearly outmatched and beaten. The problem is that this dedication to their cause is not based in love or truth, but in zealotry and cultism. They are jihadists, and nothing, not logic, not facts, not reason nor moral principle will convince them of the error of their ways.

    So what is the solution? One could suggest that we make it easy for them to leave. After all, if they hate America as much as they say they do then why are they still living here? Probably because most other places in the world are abysmal in comparison. But if we keep them around they will drag the country down to the same terrible level. It’s a conundrum. Beyond that, what country would want them? Social justice is seen as a cancer in many countries and an injection of leftist migrants would be a disaster for them economically and socially, even in nations that claim to support leftist models.

    Most leftists would also refuse to leave anyway because they believe they should decide the path of America’s future. As much as they hate this country they see themselves as its saviors.

    Then there is the option of internal separation, which I see as preferable. This is already happening in many forms as conservatives and moderates from blue states relocate by the millions to red states. In my home state of Montana there has been an influx of migrants from blue states and every single new person I have talked to is a conservative/prepper whose family lived in a blue state for generations and they finally got fed up. The vast majority of people moving are conservative minded and they are now congregating.

    Why not carry this process forward to its natural conclusion? Red states break from blue states and red counties break from blue state control and we live our lives the way we see fit. Let the leftists continue with their draconian economic and political models and see how well that goes for them. I guarantee they will be in financial ruins within a decade (the list of most indebted places in the country is dominated by blue states) and they will be begging to return to a union with red states (except for the zealots, which would lose influence as they continue to fail).

    But this will not happen peacefully because, again, leftists cannot tolerate free activity. Their OCD will not allow them to be content with living in a collectivist state of their own; ALL states must be collectivist before they are satisfied. People are property to them; property of the collective, and people who are property cannot be allowed to make decisions without oversight.

    There are people who will naively argue that the establishment wants America divided and separation plays into their hands. Guess what? There is no reconciliation with tyrants and trying to maintain a union with them is the pinnacle of idiocy. There is no union, it is a figment of your imagination. I think the establishment prefers that we stay within the box; that we continue wasting all our time and attention on on trying to hold a system together that is corrupt beyond repair. We will never be allowed to peacefully repair what has been broken.

    Unfortunately, the only path this leaves is one of violence. Leftists will have to be forced out of positions of power and influence and removed from our culture like a cancerous tumor is cut from the body to save the body. I don’t think this should be the obvious choice. I don’t want it to be. What I am saying is, leftists and their partners in government and the corporate world will force the issue because they cannot help it; like the story of the scorpion and the frog, it’s in their nature to destroy.

    They will continue to push and steal and threaten and abuse until they get the inevitable response of a punch in the teeth. Then, they will play the victim like they always do. This crying and gaslighting will have to be ignored. In the end, these people cannot be tolerated in a free culture and their power to harm and enslave others must be removed, one way or another.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/13/2022 – 00:00

  • These Are The World Largest Cannabis Markets
    These Are The World Largest Cannabis Markets

    North America and Europe are home to some of the world’s most famous cannabis cultures, such as California and Amsterdam.

    However, as Visual Capitalist details below, even in these undoubtedly successful markets, cannabis legality varies by country – and as this graphic by Tenacious Labs explores, so does its subsequent market value.

    The European Cannabis Market

    Although the European Union is one single economic market with agreed upon laws and regulations, individual countries still have their say on national laws. Looking at Europe as a region reshapes things again as countries like the UK are outside the EU—further muddying cannabis laws and regulation.

    Regardless, there is immense potential in the European cannabis market—it is expected to be worth $37 billion by 2027. The biggest markets driving this are Germany, the UK, and France.

    As of December 2021, Malta became the first European country to fully legalize recreational cannabis. Three other countries have also started the process towards legalization, and a number of others are expected to fully legalize in the next few years, namely:

    • Germany

    • Luxembourg

    • The Netherlands

    • Spain

    • Switzerland

    On average, 1 in 10 Europeans use cannabis every year. With little legality for recreational cannabis, this high demand has to be met by the illegal market. As a result, yearly illicit cannabis market sales are estimated at around €11 billion (US$13 billion)—representing significant untapped potential.

    The North American Cannabis Market

    The U.S., Canada, and Mexico make up the world’s largest continental cannabis market, worth $18.1 billion in 2020. In Canada, cannabis is federally legal, and Mexico will soon be in the same boat. The U.S., however, is a different story.

    America’s stance on cannabis legality varies on a state-by-state basis. Federally, cannabis is illegal—listed as a Schedule I drug, alongside heroin. But individual states have their own laws, from states with fully legal recreational cannabis to medical usage only permitted, and full illegality.

    The U.S. has the biggest cannabis market potential in North America by far.

    In states where cannabis has been fully legal for years—like Colorado—countless jobs and revenue have been added to the state’s economy and in such markets, regulation is pushing the industry towards maturity. In contrast, in states like Wyoming it is still illegal to be ‘under the influence’ of cannabis.

    This stark contrast within one country hinders the market potential of the entire continent. However, the MORE (Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement) Act was recently reintroduced in the U.S.’ House of Representatives. If passed, it would remove cannabis from its classification as a Schedule I drug.

    Cannabis Markets with Huge Potential

    North America and Europe are the most advanced cannabis markets, but without transparent and clear regulation, we have yet to experience their full potential.

    Treaties like USMCA in North America, and the economic union for most European countries, offer the chance for the world to benefit from the highly lucrative cannabis market.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 23:30

  • Retired 3-Star General: Critical Race Theory Leading To Military 'Failure'
    Retired 3-Star General: Critical Race Theory Leading To Military ‘Failure’

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A retired Marine general spoke out about critical race theory training in the armed forces, arguing that the Marxist ideology will ultimately weaken the U.S.’s military capability.

    U.S. Army soldiers are seen in a 2011 file photo taken near Nasiriyah, Iraq. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    Writing for military magazine Task and Purpose, retired Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Greg Newbold argued that critical race theory and related ideologies run counter to the “stone-cold pragmatism” needed to win conflicts.

    “Wars must be waged only with stone-cold pragmatism, not idealism, and fought only when critical national interests are at stake,” he wrote. “Hopes for changing cultures to fit our model are both elitist and naive. The failures of our campaigns in Iraq and especially in Afghanistan confirm this.”

    Meanwhile, the tenets of critical race theory—an offshoot of the Marxist critical theory school—can ruin unit cohesion, he added.

    “A military force’s greatest strengths are cohesion and discipline,” said Newbold, who retired in 2002. “Individuality or group identity is corrosive and a centrifugal force. Indeed, the military wears uniforms because uniformity is essential.”

    “The tenets of Critical Race Theory—a cross-disciplinary intellectual and social movement that seeks to examine the intersection of race and law in the United States, but which has the unfortunate effect of dividing people along racial lines—undermine our military’s unity and diminish our warfighting capabilities.”

    If military leaders focus on differences and group identity, he added, it undermines “cohesion and morale.” After that, “failure results,” the retired general said.

    “Values that are admirable in civilian society—sensitivity, individuality, compassion, and tolerance for the less capable—are often antithetical to the traits that deter a potential enemy and win the wars that must be fought: Conformity, discipline, unity,” Newbold said.

    Last year, Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, suggested that critical race theory is being taught to cadets.

    “I want to understand white rage, and I’m white,” Milley said during a contentious House Armed Services Committee exchange in June. “I personally find it offensive that we are accusing the United States military general officers, commissioned [and] noncommissioned officers, of being ‘woke’ or something else because we’re studying some theories that are out there. I’ve read Karl Marx. I’ve read Lenin. That doesn’t make me a communist.”

    Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) also claimed last year that they’ve received hundreds of tips from military whistleblowers who reported that critical race theory and related diversity training programs are being implemented in the armed forces.

    “We’ve received hundreds of whistleblower complaints about critical race theory being pushed on our soldiers,” Cotton said in a statement last year. “The problem is real—and worse than we thought.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 23:00

  • China's Rare Earth Monopoly Is Diminishing
    China’s Rare Earth Monopoly Is Diminishing

    Some while ago, precious rare earths important in the production of microchips, electronics and electric motors were almost exclusively sourced in China. However, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, in recent years, several nations have picked up production again while new players entered the market, diversifying it at least to some degree.

    Infographic: China's Rare Earth Monopoly is Diminishing | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Yet, China was still responsible for 60 percent of global production in 2021, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. 

    But since many countries are wary of depending on China, especially when it comes to technology products, nations with rare earth deposits are likely to exploit them further. The U.S., however, is still shipping its rare earths to China for processing, but is looking to add domestic processing facilities using funds of the bipartisan infrastructure deal.

    China also has the largest know deposits of rare earths, but Brazil, Vietnam and Russia also have a lot of (largely) untapped potential in the sector.

    The United States and Australia ramped up production of rare earths after 2010 and most recently, Myanmar and Thailand started to mine considerable amounts. As seen in our chart, the U.S. had in the past mined and produced rare earths for military uses and re-entered the market as rare earths were getting more important as a part of the implementation of crucial technologies.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 22:30

  • Why Ideology Is The Ancient Enemy Of Civilization
    Why Ideology Is The Ancient Enemy Of Civilization

    Submitted by Victor Davis Hanson, via the Epoch Times

    What ultimately destroyed the evil empires of Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia were bankrupt dogmas. Crackpot ideology destroyed free expression. It ruined meritocracy and ensured unequal application of the laws—and so paved the way for far worse.

    After a “mostly peaceful” march to the Georgia State Capitol in Atlanta on May 29, 2020, protestors returned to the area around the CNN Center and confronted police amid outrage over the death of George Floyd

    The Nazi idea of a superior Aryan race adjudicated everything from physics to tank design. Soviet commissars did the same, subordinating rational thought to communist agendas.

    Zealots in both systems infiltrated the universities and schools to institutionalize indoctrination.

    Wokeism, while not yet as lethal, is similar. Racial wokeism posits that the race and gender of the vice president and the next Supreme Court justice subordinate all other considerations.

    But will the current vice president and next Supreme Court justice commensurately select their own future surgeons, or their upcoming airline pilots, on the same predetermined race and sex criteria?

    What—other than ideology—explains why rejecting nominations of African-American judge Janice Rogers Brown in 2003 and 2005 was not racist and sexist, but blocking Joe Biden’s upcoming nomination of a preselected African-American female would be?

    Why were most Antifa and Black Lives Matter criminals who looted, destroyed, and assaulted during the 120 days of summer 2020 not charged, much less tried? Why, in contrast, were the January 6 rioters or the current Canadian truckers treated disproportionately harshly by the media?

    Had the same rioters on January 6 been waving pride flags and BLM banners, would some of them have been sitting for a year in solitary confinement and still uncharged?

    Had the criminal protestors and looters of summer 2020 been wearing red MAGA hats, would they also have mostly gotten off without charges?

    What would have happened had conservative demonstrators cut out a police-free “MAGA Zone” in Seattle rather than the exempted Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone? Would police have similarly left it alone, and the media similarly romanticized such illegality?

    One of the reasons the COVID-19 lockdown and mask policies lost public confidence was their utter corruption by ideology.

    When thousands in June 2020 brazenly defied quarantines—and yet were excused by over 1,000 healthcare professionals claiming that woke agendas justified violating quarantine laws—then millions of Americans concluded government policy was as much about identity politics as saving lives.

    Which politicians in 2020 trashed the vaccine programs and declared they would likely not get inoculations—if they were endorsed by then-President Donald Trump?

    If Trump is demonized as a destroyer of election legitimacy, what then are we to say of the beatified Stacey Abrams? She lost the Georgia gubernatorial race by more than 50,000 votes. Yet for years, she has maintained the voting was rigged and the elected governor is illegitimate.

    In 2000, who challenged for weeks the vote count, despite numerous public and private audits confirming George W. Bush’s popular vote victory in Florida?

    Who in 2004–2005—for only the second time in history—challenged in Congress the Electoral College vote? In whose party were the 31 House members and one senator who forced a congressional vote in a failed effort to overturn the election?

    Who in 2016 ran ads for weeks after the election, beseeching the chosen electors to violate their constitutional duties, ignore their state vote tallies, and instead vote for Hillary Clinton?

    And who in 2016 claimed her victorious opponent was elected president illegitimately? Who bragged she was joining the “resistance” to undermine his presidency? Who advised Joe Biden in 2020 not to accept the election result if he lost?

    If conservative zealots were ransacking American stores, carjacking innocents in the major cities, and spiking murder rates to historical highs, would the Biden administration be mobilizing law enforcement to ensure arrests, prosecutions, and incarceration? Would current city and county prosecutors continue to turn a blind eye?

    If anti-communist Cubans by the millions were illegally crashing the southern border, would they be welcomed in as are those from Mexico and Central Americans?

    If, by 2024, a Republican president enjoys a Republican Congress, what would be the reaction to conservatives who advocated ending the filibuster? Ensuring a national voting law requiring IDs at all the polls? Voting to increase the Supreme Court to 15 justices to guarantee at least six new nominations for the Republican-controlled presidency and Congress?

    When ideology in places like Castroite Cuba, the old Soviet Union, and Venezuela warped the application of the law, destroyed the role of merit in assessing qualifications, silenced speech, and unequally applied the law, then society unwound.

    In such ideological dystopias, eventually even the shelves empty, the currency becomes worthless, and the nation regresses into poverty and chaos. Is that the future we await?

    Scarier still, ideology ensures that such chaos is heralded as success. Critics are demonized and hounded. And the obsequious state media assures the public that things are going just great.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 22:00

  • World Economic Forum 'Insane Pro-CRT Propaganda' Video Draws Sharp Rebuke
    World Economic Forum ‘Insane Pro-CRT Propaganda’ Video Draws Sharp Rebuke

    The World Economic Forum (WEF) has come under fire for a video which initially appears as a neutral explainer on Critical Race Theory (CRT), only to quickly shift into a full-throated endorsement of the ideology. 

    CRT charges an entire demographic with a collective crime, uses the charge as grounds for framing individuals within that demographic of perpetrators of that crime, and then seeks to strip condemned individuals of rights, dignity, and equal protection based on that charge (h/t).

    The WEF video defines CRT as a theory “first developed by US legal scholars in the 1980s” which “argues that the laws, rules and, regulations that govern society today have been shaped by the historical subordination of people of colour and that this is a driving force behind racial inequality today,” according to Breitbart.

    As an example of the supposed racism embedded in every fiber of America’s institutions, the WEF points to the high number of incarcerated black males throughout the country.

    “Take the US criminal justice system, for example,” it says. “While everyone is seen as equal under the law, Black Americans are imprisoned at 5 times the rate of white people.“

    “CRT says this disparity is a legacy of America’s racist past,” but that opponents say it “paints all white people as bigots.”

    The video then positions CRT awareness as an honorable pursuit. Watch what opponent Chris Rufo described as an “Insane pro-CRT propaganda video.”

    Others condemned the WEF as well (via Breitbart):

    “Ah yes, the world economic forum promoting a radical departure from the current relations of power,” wrote video essayist and author Peter Coffin.

    “This PROVES CRT is the revolution. I’ve been wrong this whole time!” he mocked. 

    “Run from the WEF working class people,” warned clinical psychologist and psychology professor Dr. Jordan Peterson.

    “Why would the World Economic Forum come out in support of Critical Race Theory?” asked author and mathematician Dr. James Lindsay, who warned last month that CRT activists aim to dismantle the U.S. and establish “a total dictatorship” of the so-called “anti-racists.” 

    “Because they’re the ones who want to divide our society with this Marxist Theory or any other tool they can use to break the world and seize power,” he said.

    Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) national security adviser tweeted “I can’t believe you’re advocating for ‘equality’ at the expense of equity” in 2022. “You’re either on board or you’re not. Be better.”

    Read the rest of the comments here.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 21:30

  • The Overton Window & Bitcoin
    The Overton Window & Bitcoin

    Authored by ‘DON’ via BitcoinMagazine.com,

    As Bitcoin enters the mainstream conversation, it is becoming increasingly common for politicians to embrace or disparage the technology…

    As Bitcoin moves into its adolescence, many people from all walks of life, from all across the world may be pondering the question: Is Bitcoin mainstream? Is it in the process of becoming mainstream? Or is it something that may never become mainstream?

    The answer to this question will likely have profound effects on how governments around the world behave toward Bitcoin in its teenage years.

    The reason that public perception plays a large role in how governments behave toward a certain topic is related to a concept called the Overton window.

    In this article, we examine the Overton window: What it is, how it relates to Bitcoin, and whether the Overton window for Bitcoin has shifted far enough toward mainstream to warrant support from governments.

    WHAT IS THE OVERTON WINDOW?

    Wikipedia states, 

    “The Overton window is the range of policies politically acceptable to the mainstream population at a given time. It is also known as the window of discourse.

    “The term is named after American policy analyst Joseph P. Overton, who stated that an idea’s political viability depends mainly on whether it falls within this range, rather than on politicians’ individual preferences. According to Overton, the window frames the range of policies that a politician can recommend without appearing too extreme to gain or keep public office given the climate of public opinion at that time.”

    At the core of the Overton window is public perception. Contrary to what many people think, politicians, at least politicians that want to stay in office, cannot enact any policy they please. Instead, they must choose from a range of policies that are politically acceptable at that time. The Overton window defines that range of ideas.

    Examples of movements that have shifted from fringe — outside the Overton window — to mainstream include women’s suffrage, racial equality and recreational marijuana use. Once these movements became mainstream, government policies began to align in support of the movements.

    HOW DOES THE OVERTON WINDOW RELATE TO BITCOIN?

    Now that we have a fundamental understanding of the Overton window, let’s examine how it relates to Bitcoin. Bitcoin turned 13 on January 3, 2022. During its first 13 years, it has gone from a network primarily used by cryptography enthusiasts, extreme privacy advocates, hardcore libertarians and Austrian economic enthusiasts to something used by everyday individuals all around the world, companies small and large and even nation-states such as El Salvador.

    With the understanding that the Overton window dictates “the range of policies politically acceptable to the mainstream population at a given time,” we can then ask ourselves, “Has the Overton window for Bitcoin shifted far enough toward the mainstream to warrant support from governments?” To answer that question, let’s examine the U.S. government’s actions related to Bitcoin to date and then extrapolate what those actions may mean moving forward.

    UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND BITCOIN

    Contrary to what many bitcoin skeptics may say, in examining the U.S. government actions surrounding bitcoin to date, one would be hard-pressed to find anything overly burdensome. In 2014, the IRS classified bitcoin as property. The United States has some of the strongest property rights of any country in the world. Bitcoin being classified as property affords it the same legal protections as other types of personal property, such as real estate, and is an important reason that some of the largest bitcoin holders choose to own their bitcoin in the United States.

    In 2017, the CME Group, working in conjunction with the CFTC, launched a bitcoin futures market, an important step for any commodity.

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has repeatedly reiterated that bitcoin is not a security and thus not within their field of regulation. Other cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, may be in for a rude awakening when it comes to SEC enforcement.

    In 2020, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency gave federally chartered banks the green light to custody bitcoin.

    In 2021, the first bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) in the United States was approved. Yes, the ETF is based on bitcoin futures and does not hold physical bitcoin, but the fact that a bitcoin ETF product was approved at all is just another feather in the cap of bitcoin when it comes to favorable regulation in America.

    So, when we review the totality of government action related to bitcoin in the United States, we can see that the U.S. government has been supportive of bitcoin overall to date. Now let’s turn our attention to what this may mean moving forward for Bitcoin as it relates to the Overton window.

    IS THE TIME RIGHT FOR POLITICIANS AND GOVERNMENTS TO LEAN INTO THE BITCOIN MOVEMENT?

    With millions of people owning bitcoin, corporations of all sizes owning bitcoin, and even nation-states owning bitcoin, it is clear that Bitcoin has, or is in the process of, passing through the Overton window in many parts of the world. That being the case, the time is ripe for politicians and governments to lean into the Bitcoin movement and use it to their advantage.

    We’re starting to see the first inklings of this play out. In the United States, politicians such as Cynthia Lummis, Ted Cruz, Aarika Rhodes, Tom Emmer and others are leaning into pro-Bitcoin politics. In doing so, they’re tapping into a large base of voters who care about the issue of Bitcoin more than they do any other issue. This large single-issue voting block is powerful for any politician to tap into, as they tend to be very vocal and, in a world of 24/7 social media influence, being vocal is important. Dennis Porter wrote a great article, “Why Bitcoin Represents The Ultimate Single-Issue Voting Bloc.” I highly suggest you read it here.

    Another great example of politicians and governments leaning into Bitcoin is President Nayib Bukele and El Salvador. Bukele and El Salvador burst onto the international scene in 2020 when they announced a law that would make bitcoin legal tender. Instead of continuing to be beholden to agencies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank for funding, El Salvador instead chose to plug into the Bitcoin network. Bukele became internationally recognized almost overnight, and the country of El Salvador went from being a small country, mostly forgotten by the West, to being on the international stage. You can bet that other countries are considering similar actions.

    Now that we’ve reviewed several examples of politicians and governments taking advantage of the shifting Overton window for Bitcoin, let’s review an example of a government trying to keep Bitcoin out of the Overton window: China.

    China has “banned Bitcoin” more times than I count. Which makes sense when you think about it. A Communist country run by a dictator doesn’t want its people having access to a global, distributed, censorship-resistant sovereign monetary system? Shocking! However, in 2021, China took its disdain for Bitcoin to a whole new level. They were serious this time. They cracked down on miners, resulting in 50% of the Bitcoin hash rate being relocated to friendlier jurisdictions. They cracked down on exchanges, forcing accounts serving Chinese citizens to be closed. They generally put enough fear into enough people to dissuade many of them from interacting with Bitcoin. China put on a classic display of attempting to keep a movement from shifting into the Overton window. In my opinion, history will not be kind to China for its grave mistake.

    CONCLUSION

    The Overton window is an important concept to understand. Simply put, the Overton window dictates a range of policies that are acceptable to the mainstream population for a given topic at a given time. As Bitcoin embarks on its teenage years, and adoption continues to grow, it is clear that the Overton window for Bitcoin has shifted, or is at least in the process of shifting. Politicians and governments around the world will be well served to lean into the Bitcoin movement, use it to their advantage to attract single-issue voters, and to strengthen their position on the global stage. In the United States and El Salvador, we are seeing this process begin to play out. In other countries, such as China, we see attempts to thwart Bitcoin before it can pass through the Overton window. In my opinion, these countries will look back and realize that trying to stop the inevitable was a grave mistake.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 21:00

  • Americans Love The NFL, But Change Is Looming
    Americans Love The NFL, But Change Is Looming

    While Baseball is often referred to as “America’s favorite pastime”, the NFL has long surpassed the MLB as the nation’s favorite professional sports league.

    For several reasons however, including first and foremost its better suitability for television, Statista’s Felix Richter notes that football flew by baseball as Americans’ favorite sport to watch in the 1960s and hasn’t looked back since.

    In recent years, baseball has even been surpassed by basketball, as younger audiences prefer the action-packed, star-studded NBA over what many young viewers consider the dragging affair of a three-hour baseball game.

    According to recent findings from Statista’s Global Consumer Survey, the NFL remains the number 1 among major professional sports leagues in the U.S., at least for now.

    Infographic: Americans Love the NFL, But Change Is Looming | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    While 52 percent of self-declared sports fans follow the National Football League, compared to 42 percent for the NBA and 31 percent who follow the MLB, looking at the youngest group of respondents reveals a worrying trend for NFL executives.

    Among 16- to 25-year-olds, the NFL only plays second fiddle to the NBA, with just 33 percent of young sports fans following the league. The NBA reaches 40 percent of Gen X fans, who are overall less likely to follow any professional sports leagues than their older compatriots.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 20:30

  • "We're At End Days Here" – US Faces Rampant Shortages Of 116 Different Pharmaceutical Drugs
    “We’re At End Days Here” – US Faces Rampant Shortages Of 116 Different Pharmaceutical Drugs

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    Global supplies of pharmaceutical drugs are getting tighter and tighter, and this has very serious implications for 2022 and beyond.  If you depend upon a certain pharmaceutical drug in order to stay alive, I would recommend doing whatever you can to make sure that you have as much of that drug stockpiled as possible, because a day may come when you are unable to get any more for an extended period of time.  Much of our drug production has been outsourced to China, and our relations with China are not going so well right now.  In fact, the moment that China invades Taiwan we are going to have a major league national crisis on our hands.

    Let me try to explain this one step at a time.

    The FDA regularly keeps a list of pharmaceutical drug shortages.  According to that list, there were 112 drug shortages in the U.S. in November, and there were 114 drug shortages in the U.S. as of January 11th…

    Nationwide, more than 100 drugs are in short supply, including antibiotics, diuretics, opioids and heart failure medications, FDA data shows.

    As of Jan. 11, 114 drugs were in shortage, according to the FDA’s database of current and resolved drug shortages, which is updated daily. The current tally is a continuation of shortage levels seen last year. In November 2021, the FDA reported 112 drug shortages.

    I wanted information that was more up to date than that, so I went over and checked out the latest FDA drug shortage list for myself.

    There are 165 entries on the list right now, but 49 of them have been resolved.

    Subtracting 49 from 165 gives us a total of 116 pharmaceutical drug shortages in the United States at this moment.

    That is shocking.

    What are people supposed to do if they can’t get the drugs that they need?

    Unfortunately, this is another area where we have outsourced a tremendous amount of production to China.

    Today, a whopping 97 percent of all antibiotics purchased in the United States come from China.

    Just think about that.

    If our supplies of antibiotics were suddenly cut off, a whole lot of Americans would die.

    And it isn’t just antibiotics that we are talking about.  According to one expert, if China suddenly cut off the flow of pharmaceutical drugs many of our hospitals “would cease to function within months, if not days”…

    As the U.S. defense establishment grows increasingly concerned about China’s potentially hostile ambitions, the pharmaceutical supply chain is receiving new scrutiny.

    “If China shut the door on exports of medicines and their key ingredients and raw material, U.S. hospitals and military hospitals and clinics would cease to function within months, if not days,” said Rosemary Gibson, author of a book on the subject, “China Rx.”

    Wow.

    This is another example that shows why it was so foolish to become so dependent on manufacturing in China.

    For years, I railed against all of the outsourcing that was going on.

    But our politicians in Washington didn’t want to listen to voices such as mine.

    And so now we are in a very precarious position.  If China invades Taiwan, either we have to stand aside and let it happen or we give up most of our medicine.

    At this point, things are so bad that we don’t even have a single penicillin plant in the United States anymore…

    Other generic drugs whose key ingredients are manufactured in China include medicines for blood pressure medicine, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, epilepsy and depression, Gibson says.

    “We can’t make penicillin anymore,” said Gibson. “The last penicillin plant in the United States closed in 2004.”

    Isn’t that crazy?

    The Chinese have the ability to bring us to our knees without firing a single shot.

    For a very long time I have been warning my readers that the U.S. has been playing checkers while China has been playing chess.

    They have outmaneuvered our clueless leaders every step of the way, and most Americans didn’t even realize what was happening.

    Of course it isn’t just pharmaceutical drugs that are the problem.  Western nations have outsourced the production of nearly everything, and now we are facing widespread global shortages that are unlike anything we have ever seen before.  I included the following quote in an article that I posted yesterday, but I think that it is so important that I am going to share it again…

    In a time when social networks have been swamped with photos of empty shelves from across the nation, Goldman’s head commodity strategist and one of the closest-followed analysts on Wall Street, said he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now.

    “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Monday. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

    I don’t know if I have sufficient words to express the seriousness of what we are now facing.

    A horrifying global meltdown has already begun, and it is only going to get worse.

    Earlier today, I came across a video clip in which former BlackRock executive Edward Dowd warned that “we are at the end days here”.

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    Needless to say, he was specifically addressing the state of the financial markets, but his statement could definitely be applied on a much broader basis.

    We have entered a period of great crisis, but many people still don’t understand this.

    A lot of times, people don’t grasp what is taking place until it affects them personally.  In recent weeks, I have gotten emails from numerous readers about the issues that they are encountering at their local pharmacies.  In the old days, getting drugs that were prescribed was a snap, but now there are times when people have had to wait weeks or even months to get their drugs.

    If you still believe that this is “temporary”, you haven’t been paying attention.

    Our entire system is melting down, and what we have experienced so far is just the beginning.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 20:00

  • The 20 Internet Giants That Rule The Web
    The 20 Internet Giants That Rule The Web

    With each passing year, an increasingly large segment of the population no longer remembers images loading a single pixel row at a time, the earsplitting sound of a 56k modem, or the early domination of web portals.

    Many of the top websites in 1998 were news aggregators or search portals, which are easy concepts to understand. Today however, as Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley details below, brand touch-points are often spread out between devices (e.g. mobile apps vs. desktop) and a myriad of services and sub-brands (e.g. Facebook’s constellation of apps). As a result, the world’s biggest websites are complex, interconnected web properties.

    The visualization below, which primarily uses data from ComScore’s U.S. Multi-Platform Properties ranking, looks at which of the internet giants have evolved to stay on top, and which have faded into internet lore.

    America Moves Online

    For millions of curious people the late ’90s, the iconic AOL compact disc was the key that opened the door to the World Wide Web. At its peak, an estimated 35 million people accessed the internet using AOL, and the company rode the Dotcom bubble to dizzying heights, reaching a valuation of $222 billion dollars in 1999.

    AOL’s brand may not carry the caché it once did, but the brand never completely faded into obscurity. The company continually evolved, finally merging with Yahoo after Verizon acquired both of the legendary online brands. Verizon had high hopes for the company—called Oath—to evolve into a “third option” for advertisers and users who were fed up with Google and Facebook.

    Sadly, those ambitions did not materialize as planned. In 2019, Oath was renamed Verizon Media, and was eventually sold once again in 2021.

    A City of Gifs and Web Logs

    As internet usage began to reach critical mass, web hosts such as AngelFire and GeoCities made it easy for people to create a new home on the Web.

    GeoCities, in particular, made a huge impact on the early internet, hosting millions of websites and giving people a way to actually participate in creating online content. If it were a physical community of “home” pages, it would’ve been the third largest city in America, after Los Angeles.

    This early online community was at risk of being erased permanently when GeoCities was finally shuttered by Yahoo in 2009, but luckily, the nonprofit Internet Archive took special efforts to create a thorough record of GeoCities-hosted pages.

    From A to Z

    In December of 1998, long before Amazon became the well-oiled retail machine we know today, the company was in the midst of a massive holiday season crunch.

    In the real world, employees were pulling long hours and even sleeping in cars to keep the goods flowing, while online, Amazon.com had become one of the biggest sites on the internet as people began to get comfortable with the idea of purchasing goods online. Demand surged as the company began to expand their offering beyond books.

    Amazon.com has grown to be the most successful merchant on the Internet.

    – New York Times (1998)

    Digital Magazine Rack

    Meredith will be an unfamiliar brand to many people looking at today’s top 20 list. While Meredith may not be a household name, the company controlled many of the country’s most popular magazine brands (People, AllRecipes, Martha Stewart, Health, etc.) including their sizable digital footprints. The company also owned a slew of local television networks around the United States.

    After its acquisition of Time Inc. in 2017, Meredith became the largest magazine publisher in the world. Since then, however, Meredith has divested many of its most valuable assets (Time, Sports Illustrated, Fortune). In December 2021, Meredith merged with IAC’s Dotdash.

    “Hey, Google”

    When people have burning questions, they increasingly turn to the internet for answers, but the diversity of sources for those answers is shrinking.

    Even as recently as 2013, we can see that About.com, Ask.com, and Answers.com were still among the biggest websites in America. Today though, Google appears to have cemented its status as a universal wellspring of answers.

    As smart speakers and voice assistants continue penetrate the market and influence search behavior, Google is unlikely to face any near-term competition from any company not already in the top 20 list.

    New Kids on the Block

    Social media has long since outgrown its fad stage and is now a common digital thread connecting people across the world. While Facebook rapidly jumped into the top 20 by 2007, other social media infused brands took longer to grow into internet giants.

    By 2018, Twitter, Snapchat, and Facebook’s umbrella of platforms were all in the top 20, and you can see a more detailed and up-to-date breakdown of the social media universe here.

    A Tangled Web

    Today’s internet giants have evolved far beyond their ancestors from two decades ago. Many of the companies in the top 20 run numerous platforms and content streams, and more often than not, they are not household names.

    A few, such as Mediavine and CafeMedia, are services that manage ads. Others manage content distribution, such as music, or manage a constellation of smaller media properties, as is the case with Hearst.

    Lastly, there are still the tech giants. Remarkably, three of the top five web properties were in the top 20 list in 1998. In the fast-paced digital ecosystem, that’s some remarkable staying power.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 19:30

  • Oakland Truckers Overwhelmed By Looming CARB Rule, Supply Chain Obstacles
    Oakland Truckers Overwhelmed By Looming CARB Rule, Supply Chain Obstacles

    By Clarissa Hawes of Freight Waves

    Besides the daily challenges drayage truckers face to keep their small businesses afloat at the Port of Oakland, some are questioning whether they still will be operating this time next year. That’s because of an emissions rule in California that is requiring them to upgrade their trucks to include 2010 model year or newer diesel engines by the end of the year.

    Truckers in line at the Port of Oakland

    Bill Aboudi, president of AB Trucking in Oakland, planned to upgrade his aging fleet by replacing half of his trucks this spring and the remainder in the fall to comply with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) Truck and Bus rule deadline of Dec. 31.

    Those plans are on hold for now, Aboudi said, as used truck prices continue to soar because of semiconductor shortages, which have caused larger fleets to hold on to their old equipment longer because of new truck order delays. He and other drayage companies typically buy their used trucks from over-the-road fleets, which are typically on a three-year depreciation schedule.

    “I get asked about a possible CARB extension every single day by owner-operators,” Aboudi told FreightWaves. “CARB is creating uncertainty if they will be able to earn a living next year.”

    The CARB rule covers all diesel vehicles with a manufacturer’s gross vehicle weight rating greater than 14,000 pounds.

    Lynda Lambert, public information officer for CARB, said there is a provision in the Truck and Bus rule for new truck buyers who are experiencing manufacturer delays, but there’s no extension for California truckers who planned to buy used trucks but either can’t find one or can’t afford one because of supply constraints. 

    J.D. Power Valuation Services reported that used truck pricing in calendar year 2021 soared over 96% higher than in 2020 because of the chip import issues, which have drastically impacted the new truck market.

    A new truck can have up to 35 chips that are used to collect data.

    Prior to these challenges, Aboudi said, he would typically be able to find a used 2011 to 2016 model year truck for between $30,000 and $50,000 for his drayage operation. But not now.

    He recently looked at a late-model truck with over 500,000 miles. The dealership was asking nearly $130,000, his initial budget to purchase three trucks.

    Joe Rajkovacz, director of governmental affairs for the Western States Trucking Association, headquartered in Upland, California, estimates that over 40,000 trucks will be affected by the CARB rule based on the government agency’s data.

    He said WSTA is talking with other trade groups about submitting “a unified request for a delay in the CARB rule.”

    “If people think there’s a supply chain issue right now, imagine taking that many trucks out of service that can’t be replaced because of the computer chip shortage,” Rajkovacz told FreightWaves. “We believe a delay is warranted because of significant supply chain issues such as the inability to get a new truck or even buy a compliant used truck.”

    One owner-operator in California made the decision to retire after he received an offer he couldn’t refuse for his late-model truck, which had around 400,000 miles.

    “I planned to stay in trucking for another year or two and my truck wasn’t even for sale, but a guy offered me nearly triple what it would typically go for in a normal year,” the driver, who didn’t want to be named, told FreightWaves. “I’ve been at this a long time and my truck was paid off so I weighed hanging in there a little longer and possibly having a major mechanical problem, or getting out with a little money in my pocket. I took the money.”

    Two owner-operators Aboudi knew in Oakland retired this year rather than continue hunting for trucks in an already tight used market. He said some drivers with trucks that meet CARB’s 2007 diesel engine requirement want an extension. This would give drayage haulers time to fix their current equipment and let the used truck market cool down. 

    “Port truckers are under a lot of stress already and we need an extension to the CARB rule by a year or two to let prices of trucks drop a little and we can rest a little easier,” Aboudi said. “If not, some aren’t going to be able to stay in business because they just can’t afford to buy used trucks at these prices.”

    Frustration mounts among truckers, ag exporters

    Drayage companies and agricultural exporters say recent attempts to address the supply chain challenges at the Port of Oakland are shortsighted because the steamship lines and terminal operators aren’t being held accountable for appointment time cancellations or delays and short receiving windows. 

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently announced that it is partnering with the Port of Oakland to fund a 25-acre container staging area for ag exports. However, port officials and the USDA failed to mention that more than a dozen trucking companies were evicted from the Howard Terminal to make this space available. 

    Some were rehomed to the same area they were evicted from six months ago. Others decided the cost of doing business in Oakland was too high and left.

    One drayage company owner estimated the cost to relocate his company to the Howard Terminal six months ago was about $10,000, including moving his trucks and office trailers and hooking up to electricity and other utilities. Now he may be forced to move and pay those costs again.

    Bryan Brandes, maritime director for the Port of Oakland, said the export yard will open on March 1 and “is designed to assist our exporters and relieve congestion at the marine terminals in order to better utilize our waterfront land.”

    “The trucking companies dislocated by the empty yard were all offered space within the seaport and all understand these are short-term month-to-month agreements,” Brandes told FreightWaves.

    He said the empty yard will better utilize the land as the dry empty containers will be grounded instead of on chassis, “more than quadrupling the capacity.”

    The USDA will be offering a $125 incentive for each empty sourced from this yard that’s used for exporting agricultural products from Oakland, according to Brandes.

    “The Port of Oakland will continue to offer limited truck and container parking as we modernize our seaport,” Brandes said. “Truck and container parking is not traditionally found within seaports and has only been available recently in the Oakland seaport with the closure of two marine terminals in 2014 and 2016. 

    Miguel Silva, CEO of Intermodal Logistics in Oakland, has concerns about how the empty yard for ag exports will be utilized. 

    “How is the empty yard going to make ships show up on time?” Silva asked. “How is the empty yard going to make the terminals be more efficient in the import and export rows?” 

    Cory Peters, president of Best Drayage, which operates about 75 trucks in Oakland, also has questions about how the yard will be used as well. The majority of his customers export agricultural products from California’s Central Valley. 

    “The biggest hurdles for ag shippers right now are being able to get space on the vessels and terminals receiving the loads in a timely manner,” Peters told FreightWaves. “Having an empty yard is nice but the steamship lines still need to provide empties. Right now that’s one of the biggest issues is the steamship lines either don’t have enough equipment or refuse to release that equipment for export bookings so they’ll ship them back overseas empty.”

    Container lot at the Port of Oakland. Photo: Clarisa Hawes/FreightWaves

    Peters said some of the steamship lines’ receiving windows for export containers have dropped from four or five days to maybe four hours, if at all. 

    “If your load doesn’t make it in during those four hours, you have to take it over to your yard and store it until the next vessel opens, which may be a week or two later to find one that’s going to the same destination,” he said. “The steamship lines and terminals have made it clear they don’t care about export customers.” 

    He is concerned that some drayage truckers will quit hauling containers and switch to long-haul as freight rates continue to soar.

    “You can’t blame somebody for wanting to drive across the country as opposed to sitting at the port and getting abused all day long and spending eight to 10 hours waiting to get a load,” Peters said.

    Ryan Rotan, the controller of Minturn Nut Co. in Le Grand, California, said his company shipped 2,800 containers loaded with almonds and pistachios last year, with 90% of them being export loads.

    On average, he said his company is touching its files 10 times more often than normal due to all of the ocean carrier and terminal changes.

    Since the peak season started in October, Rotan said his company hasn’t had a consistent shipping month.

    “We’ve had two good weeks out of every four in a month that has been on a normal shipping time frame,” he told FreightWaves. 

    He blames the lack of communication and information sharing between the steamship lines and terminal operators with the shippers and truckers as the root cause for the delays.

    “We’ve completely stopped planning around here and it’s kind of frightening because it’s just the whim of what the terminals are going to tell us, what the ports are going to tell us and then we adjust from there,” Rotan said.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 19:00

  • Mapping The World's Major Religions
    Mapping The World’s Major Religions

    The world has become increasingly more secular in the last few decades. However, as Visual Capitalist’s Anshool Deshmukh details below, religion remains an integral part of many people’s lives, and 84% of the world’s population identifies with a religious group.

    The religious profile of the world is rapidly changing, driven primarily by differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world’s major religions, as well as by people switching faiths.

    With the help of data from Pew Research Center, we break down the religious composition of the major religions in countries worldwide.

    Religious Makeup of the World by Major Religions

    Determining the exact number of religions across the world is a daunting task. Many religions can be difficult to categorize or to tell apart for those not intimately familiar with their doctrine.

    Pew Research Center organizes the world’s religions into seven major categories, which includes five major religions (Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism, and Judaism), one category that broadly includes all Folk/Traditional religions, and an unaffiliated category.

    Globally, Christianity has the largest following of these categories. Around 31% of the world’s population are Christians, closely followed by Muslims at 25%. Jews have the smallest population of major religions, with only 0.2% of the world identifying as Jewish.

    Let’s take a look at the religious composition of the world when accounting for regions:

    From Islam being the dominant religion in the Middle East to over 95% of Cambodians and Thais following Buddhism, here’s how prevalent every major religion in the world is.

    Christianity

    The world’s largest religion, Christianity, is practiced by about 2.4 billion people.

    The country with the highest number of practicing Christians is the United States, with a Christian population of 253 million. Brazil and Mexico follow closely with 185 million and 118 million Christians, respectively.

    Christianity has historically spread around the globe and today it remains a geographically widespread religion. Over the past century, it has become less concentrated in Europe while becoming more evenly distributed throughout the Americas, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region.

    Islam

    Even though it’s the predominant religion of countries in the Middle East and Northern Africa, by sheer number, countries in Asia have the highest percentage of practicing Muslims in the world.

    It may surprise you to know that 14.2% of Indians are Muslim. As a result, the country is home to one of the world’s largest Muslim populations, surpassed only by Indonesia.

    Islam is also the world’s fastest-growing major religion. The number of Muslims is expected to increase by 70%, from 1.8 billion in 2015 to nearly 3 billion in 2060. The fact that they have the youngest median age, at 24, also helps this population growth.

    Judaism

    While Jews historically have been found all around the globe, Judaism is highly geographically concentrated today. More than four-fifths of all Jews live in just two countries: the United States and Israel. Israel is the only country with a Jewish majority, with 76% of the population being practicing Jews.

    The largest remaining shares of the global Jewish population apart from the U.S. and Israel are in Canada (about 3% of the country’s population), France (2%), the United Kingdom (2%), Germany (2%), Russia (2%) and Argentina (between 1% and 2%).

    Unaffiliated

    The religiously unaffiliated population includes atheists, agnostics, and people who do not identify with any particular religion. 720 million of the Chinese population consider themselves religiously unaffiliated, while 78% of Czechs feel the same way.

    However, it is worth noting that many of the religiously unaffiliated hold some religious or spiritual beliefs. For example, surveys have found that faith in God or a higher power is shared by 7% of unaffiliated Chinese adults, 30% of unaffiliated French adults, and 68% of unaffiliated U.S. adults.

    Hinduism

    Hinduism is the third-largest religion worldwide, with approximately 1.2 billion Hindus in many countries. Interestingly, however, Hinduism is the dominant religion in only three countries, India with 79%, Nepal with 80%, and Mauritius with 48%.

    Although Hinduism is rarely a country’s primary religion, it still enjoys a global presence. Many regions around the world support significant populations of Hindus, including the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, North America, and South America.

    Buddhism

    According to estimates, half the world’s Buddhists live in China. Still, they make up only 18% of the country’s population. Most of the rest of the world’s Buddhists live in East and South Asia, including 13% in Thailand (where 93% of the population is Buddhist).

    Buddhism in Asia is a matter of both identity and practice. Scholars and journalists have documented that many Asian countries may engage in Buddhist practices without considering themselves part of any organized religion.

    Folk Religion

    Folk religion is any ethnic or cultural religious practice that falls outside the doctrine of organized religion. Grounded on popular beliefs and sometimes called popular or vernacular religion, the term refers to how people experience and practice religion in their daily lives.

    As of 2020, an estimated 429 million people, about 6% of the world’s total population, were adherents of folk or traditional religions. Some notable folk religions include African traditional religions, Chinese folk religions, Native American religions, and Australian aboriginal religions.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 18:30

  • Biden Admin Urges Court Not To Allow Release Of 'Secret Report' On Dominion Voting Machines
    Biden Admin Urges Court Not To Allow Release Of ‘Secret Report’ On Dominion Voting Machines

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    Top officials at a U.S. federal cybersecurity agency are urging a judge not to authorize at this time the release of a report that analyzes Dominion Voting Systems equipment in Georgia, arguing doing so could assist hackers trying to “undermine election security.”

    Jen Easterly, the director of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, answers questions during her confirmation hearing in Washington on June 10, 2021. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) was recently provided an unredacted copy of the report, which was prepared by J. Alex Halderman, director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society.

    The report discusses “potential vulnerabilities in Dominion ImageCast X ballot marking devices,” or electronic voting devices, according to the government.

    While CISA supports public disclosure of any vulnerabilities and associated mitigation measures with election equipment, allowing the release of the report at this point “increases the risk that malicious actors may be able to exploit any vulnerabilities and threaten election security,” government lawyers said in a Feb. 10 filing in the case.

    The case was brought in 2017 by good-government groups and voters who say the lack of paper ballots undermines the voting process.

    U.S. District Judge Amy Totenberg, an Obama nominee overseeing the case, was urged by CISA to reject attempts to release a redacted version of Halderman’s report for now.

    CISA officials want to review the information in the report and help Dominion resolve the vulnerabilities identified before the report is released. They said they weren’t able to provide a date by which they’ll be finished.

    Totenberg must weigh the request against the wishes of Georgia Secretary State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican and one of the defendants, who called in late January for the release to happen immediately.

    John Poulos, Dominion’s CEO and president, said in a statement released by Raffensperger’s office that Halderman’s review lacked “a holistic approach,” adding that Dominion “supports all efforts to bring real facts and evidence forward to defend the integrity of our machines and the credibility of Georgia’s elections.”

    Plaintiffs, including the Coalition for Good Governance, also support the release of the report, David Cross, one of their lawyers, confirmed to The Epoch Times.

    The plaintiffs said in a filing before a copy was sent to CISA that the agency should get a copy and begin its evaluation process, but that the evaluation “should not unreasonably delay the public disclosure of the report, which must be promptly disclosed to Georgia state and county election officials, and filed on the public docket, so that public officials can secure the upcoming May primary elections.”

    They asked Totenberg to order them to file a redacted version of the report on the docket, which would make it accessible to the public, no later than March 4.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 18:00

  • "Not Going To Happen To Me Again" – Prepping Goes Mainstream In Post-COVID Era
    “Not Going To Happen To Me Again” – Prepping Goes Mainstream In Post-COVID Era

    Consumer psychology radically changed during the early days of the virus pandemic as shortages at supermarkets emerged. Bulk-buying habits were never a thing with the modern consumer in a pre-COVID world, but now ‘prepping’ has gone mainstream two years since the beginning of the virus pandemic as supply chains remain snarled and food inflation is out-of-control. Many have discovered: be prepared or be hungry. 

    The pandemic was an eye-opener for tens of millions of consumers who learned the government and big corporations wouldn’t take care of them when things go south. Even our elected officials were nowhere to be found in the early days of the pandemic when people panic hoarded food at supermarkets and fought over toilet paper in a ‘free for all battle royale’. 

    WSJ interviewed consumers across the country who’ve expressed their purchasing habits have changed. 

    “Bulk-buying habit is expected to stick as people eat more at home, supply remains uncertain and inflation rears up. Retailers and producers are shifting operations as a result,” WSJ said. 

    Alexis Abell, a 41yo mother of five, buys in bulk out of fear of economic uncertainty. 

    “I don’t want to be in a position again where I can’t get something,” Abell said, who was laid off in 2020 and decided not to return to work. Her household spends about 25% more a week on food and staples versus a couple of years ago. 

    “The stimulus money is gone, but we’ve gotten used to having more on hand and I’m cooking more at home, so I expect this to continue,” she said. 

    Many people expanded their pantries during the pandemic, bought freezers, and made space for non-perishables. WSJ calls “bulk shopping” “hoarding,” though it’s not and instead should be considered a form of prepping. 

    Bob Nolan, senior vice president of Demand Science at food giant Conagra Brands Inc, has said consumers have “made permanent changes” after they experienced the “harsh realities of pandemic shortages.” 

    “They didn’t just stock up that week, but they said to themselves, even if subconsciously, ‘That’s not going to happen to me again,'” Nolan said. 

    Research firm IRI, which tracks consumption of household goods, confirms households are transforming into preppers as their average annual growth in sales by volume of food and beverages was 3% in 2020 and 2021, compared with just 0.5% average yearly growth for that last decade. IRI said consumers want larger package sizes. 

    “Even if somebody waves a magic wand and makes Covid go away completely, we still expect elevated consumption in the home because people are accustomed to working from home, and hybrid work is here to stay,” said Krishnakumar Davey, president of client engagement at IRI.

    It’s human nature to be prepared. Take, for instance, the “Silent Generation” and “Boomers” who either lived through the 1930s Great Depression or were raised by parents from that period learned to keep a large pantry of food and save almost everything they had due to socio-economic uncertainties. Scarcity is terrifying and can easily sway an entire generation of folks, such as “Millennials” and “Generation Z,” who were accustomed to an on-demand society that abruptly came to a halt during the pandemic. Younger consumers were forever changed as their thoughts, beliefs, feelings, and perceptions of the economy changed during the pandemic. Thus what we’re observing today is that consumers are becoming preppers.

    Megan Crozier, Sam’s chief merchant, said most new Sam’s Club memberships in the third quarter of 2021 had been millennial households.  

    Another variable pushing younger households into prepping is the hottest consumer prices in four decades. Consumers have noticed prices are going higher and higher for some foods every week. Global food prices are at a decade high and could easily reach a new high as early as this spring. People are stocking up on food because the product could either be unavailable next week or cost 20% more. 

    Prepping is become mainstream and not as much “fringe” as it was perceived just a few years ago. This is a symptom of people losing trust in government and corporations. The evolution of thought for consumers is to break away from the matrix, buy land in a rural community with a decent internet connection and grow food and hunt. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 17:30

  • Canadian Oil Exports To U.S. At Record Level
    Canadian Oil Exports To U.S. At Record Level

    By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

    Canadian oil producers are exporting crude to the U.S. at record rates, Reuters reported, adding that demand for the heavy, sour crude that Canada is producing is surging.

    What’s more, a growing amount of this crude is not staying at Gulf Coast refineries but is being exported to international markets. Kpler data cited by Reuters shows that the rate of Canadian heavy crude exports from the Gulf Coast topped 180,000 bpd last year, up from about 70,000 bpd in 2019 and 2020.

    In December, export rates from the Gulf Coast reached 300,000 bpd. Most of this crude is going to India, China, and South Korea, replacing lost Venezuelan barrels.

    Canada’s oil sands production is also at record levels of 3.5 million bpd, according to the Reuters report. According to a Capital Economics expert, however, Canada’s oil production is suffering from pipeline constraints.

    “The oil sector is not the driver of GDP growth that it once was,” Stephen Brown said in a note quoted by Bloomberg this week. “Due to pipeline capacity constraints, there is little supply response to rising prices, with oil production still stuck near 2018 levels. With export capacity out of their hands, producers have been using their income to pay down debt rather than invest.”

    “As there is little scope for an immediate supply response and it takes time for higher oil export earnings to feed through to the rest of the economy, for example, in the form of higher wages in the oil patch, there is a risk that higher oil prices initially have a modest negative impact on Canadian economic activity, by eating into consumers’ real spending power,” the economist also said.

    The Canadian oil industry has been hard hit by canceled pipeline projects, but, as Reuters reports, Enbridge managed to expand the capacity of the Line 3 pipeline twofold last year. At the same time, the Capline Pipeline, which normally transports crude from Louisiana to Illinois, reversed flows last year to move more Canadian crude to the Gulf.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 17:00

  • Post-COVID Super Bowl Ad Costs Reach Record High
    Post-COVID Super Bowl Ad Costs Reach Record High

    When Super Bowl LVI kicks off tomorrow, the NFL championship won’t be the only title that’s on the line. With roughly a hundred million viewers glued to the TV in the U.S. alone, Statista’s Felix Richter notes that some of the world’s biggest and most popular brands will be competing for the unofficial title of “Most Memorable Super Bowl Ad”.

    Infographic: No Covid Discount for Super Bowl Advertisers | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Since 2010, the average rate for a 30-second spot during the Super Bowl broadcast has risen from $2.77 million to $6.50 million, making it by far the most expensive time slot U.S. television has to offer – a 30-second spot during the Academy Award ceremony is less than half the price.

    It’s a price that brands are willing to pay though.

    Last year, in-game ad revenue amounted to $435 million.

    According to Kantar Media that is roughly equivalent to the combined ad revenue of the four major U.S. broadcast networks in an average week.

    In return for their investment, brands not only get a huge audience (91.6 million viewers in 2021) but an audience that sticks around: during the 2013 Super Bowl, only 0.7 percent of the audience tuned away during commercial breaks. The average tuneaway rate during regular TV programming is five times as high. Consumers tend to pay special attention to Super Bowl ads, as agencies typically try to honour the prestigious occasion with especially witty and often funny ads.

    In recent years, the dawn of YouTube has added another bonus for Super Bowl advertisers seeing that the most popular ads often reach millions of additional viewers on the platform.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 16:30

  • Russia Issues Rare Condemnation Of Israeli Airstrikes: "A Crude Violation Of Syria's Sovereignty" 
    Russia Issues Rare Condemnation Of Israeli Airstrikes: “A Crude Violation Of Syria’s Sovereignty” 

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    On Thursday, Russia said it has “deep” concerns over Israel’s ongoing air campaign in Syria, warning the continued airstrikes could escalate tensions in the region and threaten civilian air traffic.

    “Israel’s continuing strikes against targets inside Syria cause deep concern,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. “They are a crude violation of Syria’s sovereignty and may trigger a sharp escalation of tensions.”

    “Also, such actions pose serious risks to international passenger flights.” She said Russia opposes “attempts to turn Syria into a scene of armed confrontation between third countries.” The statement urged: “Once again we are insistently calling upon the Israeli side to refrain from such use of force.”

    Israel claims its air campaign in Syria is meant to target Iran, but the airstrikes often kill Syrian soldiers. Syrian state media said one soldier was killed and five more were wounded in the latest Israeli attack, which happened Wednesday.

    Russia has held talks with Israel on Syria, and in January, Russia said it would begin joint air patrols with Syria. The patrols will include areas near the Golan Heights, a frequent site of Israeli attacks, and Israel is said to be considering slowing the strikes.

    Meanwhile, The Times of Israel details that this marks a change in policy for Russia: “Following the patrol, Ynet reported that Israeli military officials were holding talks with Russian army officers to calm tensions.”

    The report said, “Israeli officials were struggling to understand why Russia, which announced that such joint patrols were expected to be a regular occurrence moving forward, had apparently changed its policy toward Israel.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 16:00

  • TD Bank To Surrender Convoy Donations To Court As Organizers Turn To Crypto
    TD Bank To Surrender Convoy Donations To Court As Organizers Turn To Crypto

    Canada’s TD Bank says it plans to surrender approximately $1 million in un-refunded GoFundMe donations to the Freedom Convoy, as well as some $400,000 the group had accepted through direct donations.

    On Friday, TD told CTV news that it would apply to surrender the funds to an Ontario court.

    “TD has asked the court to accept the funds, which were raised through crowdfunding and deposited into personal accounts at TD, so they may be managed and distributed in accordance with the intentions of the donors, and/or to be returned to the donors who have requested refunds but whose entitlement to a refund cannot be determined by TD,” said spokeswoman Carla Hindman.

    The Convoy, meanwhile, plans to fight for their donations – and is now looking to raise funding via cryptocurrency.

    Convoy lawyer Keith Wilson said that the group planned to fight to retrieve any money they had raised — and could be seen in a video promoting the group’s next play: a cryptocurrency fundraiser that has raised almost US$1 million.

    “We will be taking expedited legal steps to have the restrictions on the donated funds lifted as soon as possible,” Wilson said in an email to CTV News. -CTV

    “The principle philosophy of what Bitcoin is is freedom,” says one organizer in a Facebook video. “For everyone who had their voice stolen by “GoFraudMe”, “GoFundMe,” you should feel solace that there are now alternatives.”

    According to Ontario court filings, Ottawa Police cited the video in their affidavit, referencing the convoy’s crypto fundraising strategy.

    According to the Globe And Mail, more than $500,000 has been raised by one Bitcoin wallet.

    TD’s move is the latest hurdle faced by the Convoy – which has occupied Ottawa and other border crossings for approximately two weeks in protest of vaccine and mask mandates – sparking protests worldwide in solidarity, as well as a state of emergency declared by Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Friday.

    As CTV notes, of the roughly $10 million raised via GoFundMe, just $1 million was deposited before the fundraising site decided to cancel the campaign and refund the remainder.

    Two subsequent fundraisers launched on Christian crowdfunding site GiveSendGo have reached more than $9 million as of this writing.

    Late Thursday, however, the Ontario Superior Court froze funds from these accounts, after the province’s Attorney General alleged that the funds would further the criminal act of ‘mischief on the streets’ of Ottawa.

    GiveSendGo says the order doesn’t apply and is still collecting funds.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/12/2022 – 15:30

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