• Jim Bovard: How I Robbed The World Bank
  Jim Bovard: How I Robbed The World Bank

  Authored by Jim Bovard via The Libertarian Institute,

  I have always had a bad attitude toward official secrets regardless of who is keeping them. That prejudice and John Kenneth Galbraith are to blame for an unauthorized withdrawal I made from the World Bank. When I lived in Boston in the late 1970s, I paid $25 to attend a series of lectures by Galbraith on foreign aid and other topics. The louder Galbraith praised foreign aid, the warier I became. His hokum spurred my reading and led me to recognize that foreign aid is one of the worst afflictions that poor nations suffer. As one critic quipped, foreign aid is money from governments, to governments, for governments.

  After I moved to Washington, foreign aid became one of my favorite targets as an investigative journalist. When I talked to the chief of the US Agency for International Development (AID), Peter McPherson, in 1985, my blunt questions had him literally screaming at me within four minutes of the start of the interview. McPherson probably screamed even louder when he saw the article I wrote thrashing AID.

  Foreign aid was revered by the Washington establishment, and the World Bank epitomized the arrogance of the financial masters of the universe (at least in their own minds and press releases). The World Bank, heavily subsidized by U.S. taxpayers, profited from every debacle it spawned. The more loans the bank made, the more prestige and influence it acquired. After a profusion of bad loans to Third World governments helped ignite a debt crisis, I warned in a 1985 Wall Street Journal piece that expanding the World Bank’s role “would be akin to appointing Mrs. O’Leary’s cow as chief of the Chicago Fire Department.”

  

  I was astounded at how many despots the World Bank was propping up. Bankrolling tyrants was the equivalent of a Fugitive Slave Act for an entire nation, preventing a mass escape of political victims. Yet almost all the details of World Bank loans were suppressed, allowing its perfidious officials to pirouette as saviors. In 1987, I rattled the bank’s roof with a Wall Street Journal article headlined “World Bank Confidentially Damns Itself.” That article was based on a stash of confidential bank documents that I had finagled.

  Perhaps the bank’s worst offense was propping up Communist regimes, perennially bailing out their command-and-control economies. In the late 1970s, the bank helped finance a brutal Vietnamese government program to forcibly resettle millions of farmers in conquered South Vietnam. The bank poured billions of dollars into Hungary, Yugoslavia, and Romania. A confidential bank analysis in 1986 admitted the failure of its Communist lending program: “Projects have been prepared to meet Five-Year Plan objectives which could not be questioned or analyzed by the Bank.” Why were US tax dollars underwriting hostile Communist regimes?

  In the 1980s, the World Bank headquarters in downtown Washington had far tighter security than most federal agencies. The media was only permitted unsupervised entry into that building during the annual meetings that occurred each September. During the 1987 meetings, I roamed far and wide inside the bank. Visiting the press office of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a World Bank branch that supposedly loaned only to private entities, I scooped up a handful of their current press releases and asked about older releases. A pert twenty-something Canadian secretary directed me to an adjacent filing room. I entered and noticed one filing cabinet had a drawer labeled “Pending Projects.” There were too many people milling about the press room to check that drawer, but my curiosity was piqued.

  The following year, the World Bank was rattling its tin cup for another $14 billion commitment from the US government. Considering the bank’s dismal record in the prior decade, boosting its coffers would be throwing good money after bad.

  So I returned to the scene of financial precrimes in June 1988. I needed a pretext to enter World Bank headquarters, so I scheduled a visit to its research library. After guards vigorously searching my bike courier-style shoulder bag, I was handed a large VISITOR identification badge. It was important not to lose that badge, so I stuffed it into my pants pocket. After a pit stop at the library, I dropped by the IFC press office. The secretary recognized me and we chatted about how life in Washington compared to Ottawa. World Bank employees received lavish tax-free salaries, so she wasn’t suffering too badly.

  “Would you mind if I check some of your old press releases?” I asked.

  “Sure—go ahead,” she said and pointed to the file room.

  

  I ambled into the room, walked over to that filing cabinet, and grinned ear to ear when the Pending Projects drawer slid smoothly open. I skimmed the file titles and was transfixed by one labeled Poland. Why would a private sector branch of the World Bank be lending to a bankrupt Communist country? Poland owed $38 billion to the West—with zilch chance of repayment, given its floundering economy. The bank had never made a loan to Poland before. Why were they adding a new Communist regime to their welfare rolls? And why was the World Bank rushing to add its seal of approval to a military dictatorship that was tottering due to waves of heroic nationwide strikes by Solidarity?

  I slipped the Polish file into my courier bag and strolled out to the main press room. I saw a secretary schlepping a stack of papers down the hall and followed her to a copy room.

  I got in line and was soon bantering with the secretaries ahead and behind me about the brutal Washington summer weather and the latest subway fare increase. World Bank officials tend to be even haughtier than US senators, and perhaps my friendly demeanor was almost a novelty.

  My turn arrived and I laid that file onto the intake slot for the copier. I pushed the Copy button but the machine wouldn’t budge without a code. I turned to one of the women I had been chatting with, smiled, and two minutes later, slipped the forty-page copy into my courier bag.

  I glided back into that file room and tucked the original document back in the drawer. If there were a bank internal investigation, that might throw them off the trail. I might have faced federal charges and prison time if I had been caught absconding with confidential financial documents from a quasi-government United Nations organization. However, if the bank suspected that one of their own employees or a US government official had leaked the document, they might hesitate to dig too deeply, since that could cause them more embarrassment than it was worth.

  Making a copy was one thing, but getting out of the building was another. Those photocopies were too bulky to stash under my clothes—my favorite hiding place when I roamed the East Bloc. I considered asking the guard his prediction for the upcoming Redskins season but instead relied on the dull-eyed, working stiff motif. The guard glanced at my shoulder bag and waved me on.

  After exiting bank headquarters, I paused on K Street, skimmed the first pages, and knew I had struck gold. Back in my home office, I called the gutsiest editor I knew—Tim Ferguson, the editorial features editor at the Wall Street Journal. Tim sighed audibly when I related how the copy migrated into my bag, but he was game for a story. (Some editors I later dealt with would have phoned the World Bank, apologized profusely, and offered a sworn affidavit that I should be indicted for undermining trust in a US government–backed institution.)

  I whittled up the article and over the next few days spent hours on the phone with a French lady in the IFC press office, getting her official responses to the less incendiary charges in the piece. At 4 p.m. on the day before publication, during the last call locking up the final details, I nonchalantly added: “Also, I want to confirm that the World Bank is still on track to make a loan to the Hortex cooperative in Poland.”

  “THAT’S SECRET INFORMATION!” she squealed, her accent flaring up like an Air France stewardess whose butt had just been grabbed.

  “I need to confirm that project is moving forward.”

  After a terse pause, she said: “Yes.”

  Even though this was the most important case in the article, I did not mention it to her until the last minute. I had prior experience with government agencies pulling out all the stops to kill a threatening article before it hit print.

  My piece in the next day’s Wall Street Journal disclosed: “The IFC is eager to begin lending to Poland, as a March 24 confidential project analysis shows.” A memo from a top bank official touted a proposed $18 million loan to a Polish agricultural cooperative and fretted that “there is a real danger that the Polish authorities may become frustrated with the international financial institutions…A fast, early investment by IFC would have enormous effect on IFC’s standing in Poland, would demonstrate IFC to be a flexible, responsible institution and would increase the number of investment possibilities in the pipeline. IFC would achieve a great deal of good will by an early investment.”

  The World Bank wanted to be loved by its bankrupt Communist borrowers—and also wanted to maximize the “investment possibilities” for subsequent World Bank handouts. A confidential analysis justified the loan based on the agricultural firm’s net worth, calculated by the official exchange rate of 175 Polish zlotys to the dollar. But the black-market exchange rate at that time was thirteen hundred zlotys to the dollar. Misstating the exchange rate by 600 percent plus was the World Bank’s version of “close enough for government work.” If the same switcheroo had been made by a US banker granting a federally guaranteed loan, the banker could have been “cuffed and stuffed.”

  The confidential document praised Poland for introducing a “radical version of market socialism.” It heartily approved the Polish government’s “introduction of a progressive tax aimed at containing wage increases”—a tax that crucified miserly paid workers on an altar of central planning follies (“Swedish taxes on Ethiopian wages,” according to dissidents). When the Communists held a referendum on economic reforms in late 1987, a top World Bank official urged Poles to vote for the government’s plans. The World Bank wanted to reform communism, but the Polish people wanted freedom instead. My WSJ article concluded that the World Bank was subverting real reform and “has betrayed the citizens of the Third World and East Europe.”

  A retired World Bank press officer later told me that my article hit the bank like a concussion bomb, spurring emergency early morning meetings to try to contain the political damage. The World Bank launched a counterattack to pressure the Wall Street Journal to retract the story, but to no avail. Bank officials were convinced an insider gave me the confidential Polish documents on a silver platter. But being a freelancer means making your own silver platters.

  Five months after my WSJ piece, and just after the US presidential election won by George H.W. Bush, the bank approved that first loan to Poland. The New York Times reported that the bank planned to give up to $250 million to Poland the following year. But the military dictatorship in Poland effectively collapsed in mid-1989, before the World Bank could open the floodgates with subsidized loans. The inflation rate in Poland rose to 5,000 percent, destroying any pretense of rational investment by the World Bank or any other entity.

  Later that year, World Bank president Barber Conable bashed my work in a New York Times piece. His article was paired with an “opposing view” piece from me that concluded: “The World Bank’s ‘have money, must lend’ syndrome will continue to be a curse to the world’s oppressed citizens…Mr. Conable should retire as soon as possible.” Conable is long gone, but, unfortunately, the World Bank lives on.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/15/2021 – 00:10

• Xi & Putin To Discuss "Very Aggressive" US & NATO Rhetoric In Virtual Summit
  Xi & Putin To Discuss “Very Aggressive” US & NATO Rhetoric In Virtual Summit

  At a moment Vladimir Putin is demanding an urgent meeting with NATO in order to discuss Russia’s security concerns over the Western military alliance’s expanding presence, and as rhetoric is still escalating over Ukraine, the Kremlin has announced that Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a video conference on Wednesday to discuss “aggressive” language from the US and NATO.

  Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described that “The situation in international affairs, especially on the European continent, is very, very tense right now and requires discussion between allies.”

  He underscored that “We see very, very aggressive rhetoric on the NATO and US side, and this requires discussion between us and the Chinese.” And Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin agreed in a separate statement, saying that Putin and Xi will discuss “views on major international and regional issues of common concern.”

  

  Notably the Xi-Putin meeting will come a mere week after the Russian president’s two-hour virtual summit with President Joe Biden. While both agreed on a need for open communications and diplomacy, and there’s since been contradictory reports that Biden may have agreed to hold low-level talks addressing Putin’s demand for “legal guarantees” preventing further NATO expansion eastward, the accusatory barbs and general war-footing atmosphere have only continued.

  More recently, both Russia and China were subject of critical discussion by the US and other G-7 leaders, with the Group of 7 issuing a statement on Sunday condemning “Russia’s military build-up and aggressive rhetoric towards Ukraine.” 

  On China, Reuters noted in its G-7 coverage that “While Russian President Vladimir Putin keeps the West guessing over Ukraine, it was the might of Chinese President Xi Jinping that garnered the long-term strategic focus when the diplomats from the Group of Seven richest democracies met this weekend.”

  For all the attempts at isolating both Russia and China – something which began under the Trump administration but has been ratcheted up during Biden – the end result has been to push the two large powers which share a long border into closer cooperation and dialogue, which has lately included semi-regular joint military exercises. 

  Cold War 2.0 update: Russia has warned it could be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles across Europe in response to what it sees as US/NATO plans to increase the presence of atomic weapons on the continent. https://t.co/zyN32FBXds

  — Bryan MacDonald (@27khv) December 14, 2021

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  Once rivals and enemies in the 20th century, then ‘frenemies’, and now increasingly cooperative and strategic allies – Russia and China seem to have forged an unlikely alliance on the mere basis being target of Washington sanctions and human rights rhetoric. 

  According to the Putin office press release on Tuesday announcing the meeting, the two leaders are expected to hold a long discussion, tackling a wide range of issues… “Tomorrow, the Russia-China summit will take place. This will be a video-conference of President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, extremely important negotiations,” the Russian presidential spokesman said. “We also expect this contact to be quite lengthy in time and cover a very broad agenda.”

  “The contacts between the Russian and Chinese leaders are always characterized by their depth, the Kremlin spokesman pointed out,” according to TASS.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 23:50

• Will America's New Nuke Deter War, Or Bring It On?
  Will America’s New Nuke Deter War, Or Bring It On?

  Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

  In a bit of irony, a Twitter comment by Jill Hruby Administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) pointed to a new nuclear bomb as proof America is committed to nuclear deterrence. This is where it is important to remember that deterrence means, the action of discouraging an action or event through instilling doubt or fear of the consequences. See her Twitter post below;

  Last week, #NNSA successfully completed the B61-12 First Production Unit @PantexPlant. This is a huge milestone for stockpile modernization and demonstrates our Nation’s commitment to #nuclear deterrence. pic.twitter.com/90ojHPw6cH

  — NNSA Administrator (@NNSAHruby) December 2, 2021

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  It could be argued that reworking a nuclear bomb to make it easier to justify using it and widening out the opportunities for its use is nothing to brag about. This all falls under the category of, “once it’s out of the bottle it will be hard to put back in.”

  

  The B61-12 Is Light And Accurate  

  An article in The National Interest on October 9th, 2018 by Zachary Keck indicates this bomb may be the most dangerous nuclear weapon in America’s arsenal. The combination of accuracy and low-yield make the B61-12 the most usable nuclear bomb in America’s arsenal. It also makes using nuclear weapons thinkable for the first time since the 1940s.

  To be clear, the reason it is such a monster is not because of its power. The bomb has a maximum yield of just 50-kilotons, the equivalent of 50,000 tons of TNT. By contrast, the B83 nuclear bomb has a maximum yield of 1.2 megatons which is 24 times greater. The B61-12 may only be able to carry low-yield nukes but is guided by an advanced Boeing tail kit.

  

  Can Anyone Win A Nuclear War?

  To put the issue of power into perspective; On August 6, 1945, the United States dropped an atomic bomb on the city of Hiroshima. The bomb was known as “Little Boy”, a uranium gun-type bomb that exploded with about thirteen kilotons of force. At the time of the bombing, Hiroshima was home to 280,000-290,000 civilians as well as 43,000 soldiers. It is estimated that around 140,000 people were killed in the bombing.

  In our extensive nuclear arsenal, the United States maintains 7,200 nuclear bombs. America also maintains a plethora of expensive delivery options for its nuclear bombs. Our so-called nuclear triad includes 94 nuclear-capable bombers (B-2s and B-52s), over 400 Minuteman III ICBMs, and 12 Ohio-class ballistic missile nuclear submarines. The submarines are equipped with modern Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

  The key to the effectiveness of any weapon is its accuracy.  It has been reported that in 1985, a single U.S. ICBM warhead had less than a 60 percent chance of destroying a typical silo. Today, a multiple-warhead attack on a single silo using a Trident II missile is said to have a roughly 99 percent chance of destroying it.”

  

  A Baby Nuke With Great Accuracy

  To be clear, the B61-12 is America’s first nuclear-guided bomb, it is a new weapon. According to Hans Kristensen, from the Federation of American Scientists, existing U.S. nuclear bombs have circular error probabilities (CEP) of between 110-170 meters. The B61-12’s CEP is just 30 meters. Also, with a maximum yield of 50 kilotons, the yield can be lowered as needed for any particular mission. An amazing fact is, the bomb’s explosive force can be reduced electronically through a dial-a-yield system.

  The problem with this “friendly” nuclear bomb is that those controlling its use will most likely be more inclined to use it. This muddies the boundary and red line that mankind has up until now feared to cross. As noted earlier in this article, “once the nuclear genie is out of the bottle it will be hard to put back in.”

  Remember the 1983 movie WarGames? In it, a young computer whiz kid accidentally connects to a top-secret super-computer. The computer which has complete control over the U.S. nuclear arsenal innocently starts the countdown to World War 3. We may be moving back into such a scenario. This bodes poorly for us poor saps living in harm’s way if shit hits the fan. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 23:30

• China To "Strike Back" For Latest "Reckless" Uighur-Related US Sanctions
  China To “Strike Back” For Latest “Reckless” Uighur-Related US Sanctions

  China’s Foreign Ministry at the start of this week said it’s preparing to “strike back” against “reckless” US sanctions which were announced previously on Friday, and targeted Chinese individuals and entities said to be tied to rampant human rights abuses. 

  A spokesperson put Washington on notice, saying it’s not too late to reverse course. “We urge the US to immediately withdraw the relevant wrong decision and stop interfering in China’s internal affairs and harming China’s interests.” a foreign ministry statement by Wang Wenbin said, “If the US acts recklessly, China will take effective measures to strike back resolutely.”

  

  Friday’s US sanctions targeting China officials included “dozens of people and entities tied to China, Myanmar, North Korea and Bangladesh, and added Chinese artificial intelligence company SenseTime Group to an investment blacklist,” according to Reuters.

  Wang on Monday addressed the ongoing allegations of Chinese government genocide and forced labor internment of the minority Muslim Uighur population, which is focused in Xinjiang province. Wang said nothing will deter Beijing from legitimately combatting “violence, terrorism, separatism, and religious extremist forces.” The statement further praised the state’s “determination to defend national sovereignty, security, and development interests.”

  The foreign ministry additionally denounced “The perverse actions of the United States” which “cannot destroy the overall shape of Xinjiang’s development, stop China’s progress, or reverse the trend of historical development.”

  Beijing also fiercely denounced US double standards and hypocrisy regarding its mass casualty strikes on civilians in Afghanistan, and the fact that no one is ever held accountable…

  NOW – China: “The era in which the US acted arbitrarily in the world under the pretext of democracy and human rights is over.”pic.twitter.com/erAC9wlEJM

  — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) December 14, 2021

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  Meanwhile Chinese officials and diplomats have really been on the defensive over the past few days, particularly sensitive over the Xinjiang issue, and offering videos and stats seeking to deflate Washington’s human rights offensive…

  Do you know how many people died from #COVID19 in #Xinjiang, #China?

  THREE.

  Genocide.

  — 曹 毅 CAO Yi أبو وسيم (@CaoYi_MFA) December 14, 2021

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  One of the most vicious propaganda in the 21st century is “#China‘s crackdown on #Muslims“.

  SHARE this video with your #Muslim & non-Muslim friends, because they will NEVER EVER see it on #CNN or #BBC.

  STOP smearing China.pic.twitter.com/bQQ3bqeuCc

  — 曹 毅 CAO Yi أبو وسيم (@CaoYi_MFA) July 26, 2021

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  Last Friday’s fresh sanctions rollout coincided with Biden’s two-day virtual Summit for Democracy. It also came days after the House of Representatives voted overwhelming to approve legislation which bans all goods entering America that were the result of suspected forced labor by Muslim Uyghurs.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 23:10

• San Francisco Suspends Cannabis Tax To Help Dispensaries Compete With Drug-Dealers
  San Francisco Suspends Cannabis Tax To Help Dispensaries Compete With Drug-Dealers

  Authored by Zachary Rogers via TheNationalDesk.com,

  An ordinance suspending San Francisco’s Cannabis Business Tax was unanimously approved by city supervisors last week.

  

  San Francisco Supervisor Rafael Mandelman, the ordinance’s author, said in a statement suspending the business tax on cannabis will help support legal cannabis retailers as they struggle to compete with illegal cannabis sellers.

  Cannabis businesses create good jobs for San Franciscans and provide safe, regulated products to their customers. Now is not the time to impose a new tax on small businesses that are just getting established and trying to compete with illicit operators. https://t.co/G1wgeoh79u

  — Rafael Mandelman (@RafaelMandelman) December 2, 2021

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  Cannabis businesses create good jobs for San Franciscans and provide safe, regulated products to their customers,” Mandelman said in a statement published by the San Francisco Examiner. 

  “Sadly, the illegal market is flourishing by undercutting the prices of legal businesses, which is bad for our economy as illegal businesses pay no taxes while subjecting workers to dangerous conditions and consumers to dangerous products. Now is not the time to impose a new tax on small businesses that are just getting established and trying to compete with illicit operators.

  Illegal sellers of cannabis skirt paying those taxes and are able to offer products at a lower cost, which entices consumers to purchase their product instead of legal sellers.

  KPIX News reports the tax itself was approved by voters in 2018 and imposed a 1%-5% tax on gross receipts from cannabis sales. The new ordinance suspends the business tax through December 31, 2022.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 22:50

• FOMC Preview: Will The Fed Turbo-Taper, And Will It Hike 2 Or 3 Times In 2022?
  FOMC Preview: Will The Fed Turbo-Taper, And Will It Hike 2 Or 3 Times In 2022?

  As discussed earlier in our big-picture preview of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting (see “Is The Fed As Hawked Up As The Market?”), the FOMC is expected to leave the fed funds rate target unchanged at 0-0.25%, although all the focus will be on the pace of its asset purchase tapering.

  As Newsquawk summarizes, Fed officials have recently argued that there is a case to “turbo taper”, i.e., to accelerate the pace from the current $15bln/month ($10bln of Treasury’s, $5bln of MBS), which on the current trajectory, would see purchases conclude in June 2022. However, hot inflation prints, which has seen the Fed retire the ‘transitory’ description, as well as signs of a strong jobs market recovery, have bolstered the case for an acceleration.

  Some expect the Fed will double the pace of the taper to $30bln/month (or just below that, at $25BN), which would then see asset purchases conclude in March/April. Meanwhile, the statement will be eyed for any commentary on Omicron, which the central bank will likely acknowledge is a risk, but not something that would at this stage compel it to adjust its policy course.

  Meanwhile, the term “transitory” will presumably be removed given Powell said it is now time to retire the description.

  SGH Macro believes that there will be a noticeable change in the expressed reaction function and narrative, arguing that the Fed will shift from “supporting the labor market requires patient policy” to “supporting the labor market requires maintaining price stability.” SGH said this leaves balances of risks on the side of inflationary outcomes, with the Fed more likely to react to higher-than-expected pressures, as it has shown already leading into the confab.

  “This is what creates the risk of a March rate hike, assuming the data holds on the current trends of strong demand growth, rapidly falling unemployment, and unacceptably high inflation,” SGH concludes. The Fed will also publish update its Summary of Economic Projections, with much focus on the rate hike forecasts (which currently see one rate hike in 2022, with a 50/50 chance of another – lagging behind the market’s current view of two hikes with risks of a third); inflation forecasts are likely to be raised in the short term, but are still expected to show a decline into 2023 – the Fed chair recently told lawmakers that he expects price pressures to ease significantly next year.

  Labor market forecasts should be revised positively, especially after the encouraging drop in unemployment in November (4.2% from 4.6%), alongside more encouraging slack measures. Powell in November said it was possible the US could achieve maximum employment by the middle of 2022. With tapering now expected to be concluded sooner than previously though, officials have argued this will give the Committee more optionality on rate hikes. SGH said that “a natural interpretation of this would be rate hikes in June and December,” though its economists acknowledge risks of a hike as soon as March, although this is not likely to be reflected in the dot plot.

  “Accelerating the taper only increases the optionally to hike before June, it doesn’t guarantee such a hike.” A recent Reuters survey revealed economists expect the Fed to raise rates by 25bps in Q3 of 2022, but 30 of 36 surveyed felt there was a risk that the first-rate hike comes earlier than expected.

  In its latest FOMC preview, Goldman (like Morgan Stanley) expects the Fed to double the pace of tapering to $30BN per month, and believes that the dots will show 2 hikes in 2022, 3 in 2023, and 4 in 2024, for a total of 9 (vs. 0.5 / 3 / 3 and a total of 6.5 in September).

  

  For its part Goldman, expects the FOMC to deliver rate hikes next year in May, July, and November (vs. June, September, and December previously) and another 4 in 2023 and 2024 (spread evenly 2 and 2), for a total of 7 rate hikes through the end of 2024. This is, to put it mildly, laughable, as we will have a full-blown market crash long before any of this happens but we can go with it for now.

  

  Finally, this is what Goldman expects the Fed’s redline statement to look like tomorrow.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 22:30

• As Violence Hits Rich Neighborhoods, Liberals And Ex-Radicals Buy Guns And Mobilize To Oust Progressive DAs
  As Violence Hits Rich Neighborhoods, Liberals And Ex-Radicals Buy Guns And Mobilize To Oust Progressive DAs

  Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Substack,

  “I’ve always been anti-gun,” said Debbie Mizrahie of Beverly Hills.

  “But I am right now in the process of getting myself shooting lessons because I now understand that there may be a need for me to know how to defend myself and my family. We’re living in fear.”

  During Black Lives Matter protests last year, Mizrahie told The Post, her neighbor’s home was firebombed with Molotov cocktails.

  “My kids were outside and they saw a huge explosion,” she said.

  “[The neighbor’s] backyard went up in smoke. Trees burned down … But it’s only gotten worse. Beverly Hills has been targeted.”

  Mizrahie, a 40-something mother of two teenagers, isn’t alone. Ever since the protests last year descended into riots and lootings, a growing number of Beverly Hills residents have been buying weapons.

  “It’s gotten to a point where residents feel insecure even going from their door to their car,” said resident Shirley Reitman.

  “A lot of residents are applying for a concealed carry weapon permit, even though that’s a great challenge in LA County.”

  According to LA County Sheriff Alejandro Villanueva, the department has received 8,105 concealed carry weapon applications and approved 2,102 of them since he took office in December 2018, compared to his predecessor having issued 194 permits in four years.

  “Even hardcore leftist Democrats who said to me in the past, ‘I’ll never own a gun’ are calling me asking about firearms,” said Joel Glucksman, a private security executive. “I’d say there has been an increase of 80 percent in the number of requests I’m getting this year.”

  That trend increased last week, Glucksman said, after a beloved black philanthropist, Jacqueline Avant, was killed in her home.

  “The killing of Avant shows that even having a security guard isn’t enough to deter someone,” said Mizrahie. The victim and her husband, legendary music executive Clarence Avant, had a private security guard on duty when she was killed around 2:30 a.m. on Dec. 1.

  “What you’re seeing is the spillover into these communities of crime and violence,” explained LA police officer Steve Robinson.

  “Before, you would never hear of a robbery or a shooting [In Beverly Hills], or if you did, it was once or twice a year. In 2020, the Beverly Hills Police Department pulled 18 guns off Rodeo Drive. You go back any year before that, and it may have been zero to one or two.”

  Ironically, hours after Avant was killed, Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón “distributed a fundraising letter seeking to overturn a law that would keep her [alleged] killer in prison,” according to the Washington Examiner.

  The bill he was pushing for would eliminate additional prison time for using a gun during a crime.

  

  Critics already blame Gascón for releasing many violent offenders with few restrictions. Last year, he eliminated cash bail for many offenses.

  “It’s like we’ve been taken over by gang members and criminals because they know that Gascón is going to make sure he doesn’t prosecute them,” said one woman, a writer in the entertainment industry, who did not want to be identified. “He’s saying, ‘Hey, go out and rob someone for $900 worth. Get arrested, go back out on the street.”

  A California ballot initiative, passed in 2014, allows the theft of items up to $950 before the crime counts as a felony, as well as the possession of three grams of hard drugs including meth. The combination, say law enforcement, has been toxic.

  “It’s a revolving door at the back end because the DA doesn’t want to prosecute and got rid of cash bail,” said Glucksman.

  “So now police are saying to [private security firms], ‘Hey, I understand they’re trespassing, but we don’t want to take that arrest, because there’s nothing that’s going to be done. It’s a waste of our time and it’s a waste of money for us to expend the energy and take care of things that aren’t going to be attended to by the courts and legal system.’ The DA is sitting there going, ‘Nope, pop this one out the window. It’s not like they stabbed somebody or they murdered somebody or raped somebody.’”

  More than 1,800 people have been shot in Los Angeles in 2021, up from 1,530 in 2020. Homicides in LA rose nearly 50 percent, from 161 to 236, between January to October of 2020 and 2021.

  There had been 361 homicides in LA in 2021 as of Dec. 9. That’s still a far cry from the peak: 1,984 homicides in 1991.

  But longtime residents of Los Angeles said they were less affected by violence in decades past.

  “I don’t ever remember crime being so high,” the entertainment writer said.

  “We used to leave our doors unlocked. I would leave my keys in the car with the door unlocked. Not anymore. We’re seeing not just burglaries but also robberies. We are seeing emboldened gang members and criminals holding guns to people’s heads.”

  Last week, two armed robbers invaded a holiday party at a house in Pacific Palisades and took a watch, jewelry and phones from startled guests.

  “Everyone I know is anxious about going out to dinner,” said the entertainment writer.

  “People are afraid to wear their wedding band. They’re afraid to wear a watch. They’re afraid to carry not just an expensive bag but any name-brand bag. I keep wondering, are people going to get used to this level of crime?”

  Beverly Hills and surrounding neighborhoods like Brentwood and Bel-Air are famously home to liberal celebrities. People interviewed on Beverly Hills’ Rodeo Drive wanted me to know that they are very concerned about racism and police brutality.

  But the killing of Avant was a wake-up call.

  “My industry is filled with progressives who have the luxury of being idealists and espousing philosophies they they thought would never come back and bite them,” said the entertainment writer, who is in her early 60s.

  “There’s a shift now that it’s become so much more dangerous.”

  She mentioned a robbery on Nov. 30 in Hancock Park, a tony neighborhood south of Hollywood, when two men robbed a woman with a baby at gunpoint.

  Glucksman said some criminals are sober and deliberate but many others are addicts and more reckless, breaking into cars randomly.

  “Some are carrying around bats with them,” he said.

  “Three or four years ago my guys would see something like that once every couple of months but now we are now dealing with it on a daily basis, multiple times a day.”

  After Glucksman’s guards arrest a suspected criminal, they turn them over to LA police and file a report.

  “We are finding vagrants totally plastered out of their minds in private residential areas where our clients are and we have to call the paramedics to take them to the hospital because they were non-responsive [on drugs],” said Glucksman. “This is happening multiple times a week.”

  Gascón has reduced the LA County jail population by nearly one-third, from around 17,000 to 12,000. The California prison population declined from 127,000 in
  January 2019 to 99,000 in July 2021.

  “Unfortunately, for the majority of people released from prison,” noted Glucksman, “it’s harder for them to find jobs than others. They’re without skills or an education. Nobody wants to hire them. So … they’re going to return back to their old ways.”

  On Wednesday, Gascón held a press conference defending his controversial rollbacks on bail and and additional time for using a gun during a crime, as well as charging juveniles as adults.

  “We have set a path for ourselves,” said Gascón, “and turned around the criminal legal system in the country in a way that will be more humane, more equitable and, above all, will create a safer environment for all of us.”

  Critics called his remarks “tone-deaf.”

  Few people interviewed by The Post, including police, said they favored mass incarceration.

  “You shouldn’t be in jail for the rest of your life,” said police officer Robinson.

  “But if the three offenses happened to be violent offenses, the probability is that you probably have committed at least 30 crimes of the same nature and they haven’t been caught.”

  Beverly Hills residents have organized themselves, block-by-block and in nine city zones, for self-defense. The emergency preparedness committees, Just in Case Beverly Hills, were started by Vera Markowitz, a former 1960s radical who was a member of the New Left Students for a Democratic Society before moving to Beverly Hills.

  Today, she views public safety and fighting discrimination as two sides of the same coin. “Two years ago I got rid of the Beverly Hills police chief because she had cost the city $25 million in lawsuits by former police officers alleging that she was racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic,” said Markowitz.

   (The police chief has stated that she retired.)

  The entertainment writer and her retired business exec husband, meanwhile, organized neighbors to hire private security. “We got all these homes to buy in way more than I anticipated,” she said. “But it turned out there wasn’t private security available. There is complete panic out there.”

  Security firms charge between $2,000 to $4,000 a month to patrol neighborhoods. “A lot of people are mad about it because people moved here in part because of the police and we’re paying a lot of money in taxes to be in Beverly Hills,” said the retired business executive.

  Beverly Hills Police Department is under-staffed and just hired five new officers to make up for the 17 it lacked to meet the minimum required for public safety. That’s still a blip compared to LA, which has 500 fewer police officers today than it did this time last year.

  Private security executive Bryce Eddy runs Covered Six. One of his clients is the city of Beverly Hills, which hired his firm in June of 2020 after looters smashed store windows on Rodeo Drive.

  “The police were overwhelmed,” said Eddy.

  “In October 2020 we were out there with 22 vehicles and 40 armed guys per shift for 80 armed guys a day. We reduced crime by almost 40 percent. They kept us on until January. After we left, crime spiked back up 90 percent.”

  In February, three alleged gang members stole a $500,000 Richard Mille RM 11-03 Flyback Chronograph watch off the arm of a man eating lunch at the Beverly Hills restaurant Il Pastaio. The same month, criminals robbed seven people of their Rolexes in neighborhoods bordering Beverly Hills.

  In response, the city hired Eddy’s firm again. “We’ve been back ever since,” he said.

  Los Angeles’ progressive city government reduced the LA Police Department’s budget by $150 million in July, lowering its staff to its lowest level in 12 years. Today, LA has 500 fewer police officers than it did at this time last year.

  The irony is that cutting police budgets, noted LAPD officer Steve Robinson, “means less training, which means we are going in the opposite direction. And criminals on the streets are more emboldened.”

  There is now a bipartisan recall campaign underway that could remove Gascón from office, and all of the fearful Beverly Hill residents interviewed by The Post said they supported it.

  “I think I’m still radical,” said Markowitz, “but I’m radical in the middle. I’m just not on the extreme of anything. I’ve always believed that when you believe in something, you fight for whatever it is.”

  *  *  *

  Michael Shellenberger is a Time Magazine “Hero of the Environment,”Green Book Award winner, and the founder and president of Environmental Progress. He is author of just launched book San Fransicko (Harper Collins) and the best-selling book, Apocalypse Never (Harper Collins June 30, 2020). Subscribe To Michael’s substack here

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 22:10

• California Schools Hire 'Superintendent Of Equity' Who Lives In Philadelphia
  California Schools Hire ‘Superintendent Of Equity’ Who Lives In Philadelphia

  Moreso than perhaps any other state, California has aggressively embraced the “woke” line of thinking. Before schools decided to phase out “D” and “F” grades, LA County hired a bona fide social justice warrior to be its top public health official during the COVID pandemic.

  And now, the California Department of Education is facing a modest backlash over the hiring of a deputy superintendent of equity by the state’s Department of Education. The employee is one of the department’s highest paid. And as it turns out, he also doesn’t live, or work, in the Golden State.

  California’s deputy superintendent for equity, Daniel Lee, is a psychologist, life coach and self-help author, who – according to Politico – owns a Pennsylvania-based psychology firm and is also the president of the New Jersey Psychological Association’s executive board.

  

  And since July of last year, he has also been serving as a deputy superintendent for the California Department of Education, a role dedicated to the success of children of color. The role was originally supported by a foundation grant, but it’s now funded by state taxpayers.

  Per Politico, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond was instrumental in hiring Lee. Thurmond has known Lee for more than two decades, since they were social workers in Philadelphia, and he included Lee in his wedding party.

  The Education Department’s nonprofit affiliate initially hired Lee without publicly posting the job that now pays up to $179,832, and Lee’s 18-page resume shows no prior experience in California or relationships with school districts in the state. Since then, Lee has become head of the state agency’s equity branch, which Thurmond created in August shortly after Lee’s hiring.

  According to local records, Lee, 51, voted in Philadelphia – where he owns a home – as recently as November.

  California’s education and taxpayer advocates have recently questioned why the state hired someone living across the country, who clearly has other duties to address, to be responsible for confronting persistent racial and gender-based inequities in the nation’s largest school population.

  What’s more, the hiring appears to flout California policy, which allows few exceptions for a state employee to live elsewhere.

  One (presumably well-meaning) critic even asked Politico why the state couldn’t find any well-suited candidates for the position who lived in-state (or maybe even in the same time zone?).

  “There are a number of people in California very well qualified in our universities and educational institutions who could do this work,” said Carl Pinkston, director of the Black Parallel School Board in Sacramento, which is suing the state over disciplinary practices for students of color.

  “Irrespective of who it is, to have someone from out of state who is not familiar with California’s dynamics and politics and challenges come in and attempt to do this work only furthers the fundamental problem, which is that the California Department of Education fails to adequately monitor schools for inequities and push for enforcement.”

  Confronted with the criticism, Thurmond defended Lee’s hiring and, amusingly, insisted that “…I wanted to hire [Lee] for a long time but he lived out of state. The pandemic opened the door for me to hire someone who is top of his class.”

  The state schools chief said he knew of “no specific residency requirements” for state workers. When asked if others were interviewed for the equity job besides Lee, Thurmond said, “I can’t recall.” Thurmond attended Temple University in Philadelphia at the same time as Lee in the 1990s but said they did not know each other until they became social workers.

  “The fact that we have known each other for 30 years…if he’s doing great quality work, what difference does it make how long we’ve known each other?” Thurmond said in an interview Friday.

  Lee answered the door last month at his Philadelphia business address in a house along a residential street but declined to speak to POLITICO and did not return phone calls. A Nexis search shows no past or current addresses in California.

  Republicans have seized on the question of Lee’s residence to ask many of these questions.

  California is illegally paying six figures to a “Superintendent of Equity” who lives and works as a life coach in Philadelphia. He was in the wedding of our state schools chief who hired him. pic.twitter.com/euhRBmJMRk

  — Kevin Kiley (@KevinKileyCA) December 14, 2021

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  According to California’s Department of Education, Lee’s role is the first of its kind, and is expected to “bring cohesion in all of the California Department of Education,  equity work,” focused on counseling, social emotional learning “and other whole child programs,” according to the Department of Education’s website.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 21:50

• Tesla Employee Arrested After Shooting Coworker Dead At Fremont Factory
  Tesla Employee Arrested After Shooting Coworker Dead At Fremont Factory

  An employee at the Tesla factory in Fremont, California, was arrested in the shooting death of a co-worker in the factory parking lot Monday during a dispute, according to NBC Bay Area News.

  Suspicious Death at Tesla Factory https://t.co/tdtQFkMhqg

  — Fremont Police Department (@FremontPD) December 14, 2021

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  The suspect is identified as Anthony Solima,29, was arrested at 2315 local time Monday without incident, Fremont police said in a statement.

  

  Police alleged Solima suddenly walked off the job earlier that day, approached his co-worker late afternoon with a non-serialized .223 caliber short-barrel rifle, and shot him to death.

  Homicide detectives said the person was pronounced dead at the scene, and .223 rifle casings were recovered nearby — matching rounds used in Solima’s short-barrel rifle. 

  

  Multiple news outlets, including Bloomberg, have said Solima walked off the job over a dispute with the now-deceased co-worker but have yet to explain the details about the argument.

  The investigation is still ongoing, according to the Fremont Police, adding that Solima is being held without bail. He will be arraigned on Thursday. Police believe there was no one else involved in the shooting. 

  While questions swirl about what the argument was about and who exactly is the deceased co-worker in relation to Solima, there has been a series of incidents at the Fremont factory of racism, “nightmarish” conditions, and rampant sexual harassment. 

  Bloomberg noted that more than 31 complaints were filed with California’s Department of Fair Employment and Housing alleging discrimination at Tesla since 2020. 

  More details should follow about why Solima killed his co-worker and what that argument was about. So much chaos at Musk’s factory while he was nominated “Person of the Year” by Time Magazine this week.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 21:30

• Chinese Economic Data A Disastrous Miss Across The Board
  Chinese Economic Data A Disastrous Miss Across The Board

  After a bruising couple of strong yuan months, that saw some efforts at devaluation in early December, expectations are for China’s avalanche of macro data to continue to show the Chinese economy sliding tonight.

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  China’ macro data has most recently surprised to the upside, notably decoupling from the collapse in China’s credit impulse…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Analysts were very mixed about tonight’s data but everything missed expectations:

  • China Industrial Production YTD +10.1% YoY MISS vs +10.4% exp, WORSE than +10.9% prior

  • China Retail Sales YTD  +13.7% YoY MISS vs +13.8% exp, WORSE than +14.9% prior

  • China Fixed Asset Investment YTD +5.2% MISS vs +5.4% exp, WORSE than +6.1% prior

  • China Property Investment YTD +6.0% YoY MISS vs +6.1%, WORSE than +7.2% prior

  • China Surveyed Jobless Rate 5.0% MISS vs 4.9%, WORSE than 4.9% prior

  Ugly – and not like Beijing to allow this level of disappointment…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  So, its a miss across the board with retail sales coming in below the lowest of analyst expectations.

  Consumption weakened despite support from still strong sales around the “Singles Day” shopping festival, which didn’t help offset the impact of the outbreaks of Covid-19 on consumption of services, restaurant and catering sales, and purchases at physical shops.

  The data highlights the downward pressure on the economy from the real-estate sector and the scale of the challenge facing the Chinese government in stabilizing the world’s second-largest economy.

  As a reminder, Beijing was uncharacteristically honest about its rapidly slowing economy this week:

  Beijing has pledged to “front-load” policies to shore up the economy next year, as leaders remained on high alert against strong headwinds at the tone-setting annual central economic work conference that concluded on Friday.

  “We are facing threefold pressure, including contraction of demand, supply shocks and weaker expectations,” the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing an official statement from the conference. “Our policy support should be front-loaded appropriately.”

  The emphasis on “stability” – the word appeared 25 times in the 4,700-word statement – comes as leaders are trying to project a positive image to the world ahead of February’s Beijing Winter Olympics, and with their sights set on the 20th National Party Congress – a key political gala that will usher in twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle for the Communist Party in the second half of next year.

  “We need to concentrate on stabilising the macroeconomy, keeping the economic operation within a reasonable range and maintaining social stability,” the statement said.

  “[The meeting] emphasised the downward pressure – the notion of ‘threefold pressure’ was very rare in the past,” said Zhou Hao, a senior emerging markets economist with Commerzbank.

  He added that it was also uncommon for such official statements to mention the need to strengthen countercyclical regulations, and said it also warrants mentioning that the phrase “houses are for living in, not for speculation” showed up again, in reference to Beijing’s strong regulation of the sector.

  As Mike Shedlock noted earlier, China faces a number of headwinds:

  • Financial risks amplified by the Evergrande debt crisis

  • A regulatory crackdown

  • Biden continues Trump tariff policies

  • US monetary tightening

  • Climate change pressures from the US and EU

  Most of which will inevitably cross the Pacific…

  The US cannot possibly be immune to a huge slowdown in China.

  And what will the US and the EU do in response to China putting clime on the back burner?

  — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) December 14, 2021

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  In other words – brace!

  China has responded to the slowdown in advance by stimulating exports. This will not go over well with Biden, Congress, or the EU. But the reality is that the global economy is far weaker than Biden, the Fed, and ECB think.

  The big question now is – will tonight’s data disastrophe be enough to prompt Beijing top unleash the beast of credit support (and implicitly drive inflation even higher across the globe).

  One final thing, this was all before Omicron hit!

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 21:09

• Bank Strategist: "There Is Something Seriously Wrong With The Economy's Potential"
  Bank Strategist: “There Is Something Seriously Wrong With The Economy’s Potential”

  Deutsche Bank’s chief FX strategist George Saravelos attended a global investor “virtual lunch” today, and the below 4 points are a summary of the key discussion points.

  1. If you don’t understand supply, you can’t understand this market.

  Most commentators have insisted on adopting an excess demand framework throughout the year: “too much” stimulus leads to overheating demand, inflation and eventually a bond market implosion. While the post-COVID rebound has undoubtedly been strong, we have been arguing for months that this framework is incomplete. First, it ignores the large ongoing negative supply shock in the new COVID “normal”: consider that the US still has a negative output gap and yet inflation has already accelerated to a forty-year high. Consider that the US working age population is shrinking for the first time since WWII. Consider that US productivity last quarter shrunk at its fastest pace in more than half a century. Consider that looking under the hood, capex is disappointing. Bottom line, the supply side is anything but “gangbusters”, more reminiscent of a “secular stagnation” paradigm instead. This in turn prevents the market from aggressively repricing terminal rates: either supply recovers, pushing inflation back down – or, if it doesn’t, it means there is something seriously wrong with the economy’s potential.

  2. We need to talk about excess saving too.

  The second “post COVID normal” is structurally higher saving rates. Individuals may be spending a lot on goods but a) they aren’t doing so on services and b) they are saving even more. Yes, everyone loves bitcoin but also consider that the year has seen one of the biggest retail inflows into bond funds on record and huge bank buying of bonds recycling customer deposits. Consider that European capital outflows are at a record being sucked back into the US bond market while the US current account deficit has failed to widen materially. If this were simply liquidity hoarding, people wouldn’t be buying bonds – and global capital wouldn’t be attracted to the US bond market. Note that low labor supply and high excess saving may well be part of the same story: individuals are showing a growing preference for leisure over work, requiring higher equilibrium savings. The consumer signal is also aligned with a highly inverted yield curve. All of the above fits in with a market pricing of a low r*: massive excess saving keeps term premia depressed; weak supply keeps terminal rates low – both in line with the historical post-pandemic experience of the last thousand years.

  3. The dollar will be a key barometer.

  A flattening yield curve as a result of the forces above is historically dollar supportive and we’ve been more positive on the greenback over the last six months. How far the dollar can go, however, critically depends on the driver of the flatness: high precautionary saving and weak supply versus too much post-COVID liquidity that ultimately has to be withdrawn. If it is weak supply, the dollar move will not run for that much longer; the economy and financial conditions will tighten quicker than expected or supply will come back into line, giving the Fed some time. If it is excess liquidity keeping the S&P “too” high and bond yields “too” low, the Fed will have to keep going and tighten financial conditions more than expected: either equities will have to go down – or, if they don’t, the dollar should rally more as it becomes a high-yielder. The dollar-equity correlation would flip positive and this would not be helpful for EM FX.

  Between the two competing narratives, regular readers will be aware of our emphasis on the more pessimistic side of the story for more than six months now. Both scenarios are dollar positive but the pessimistic one ultimately constrains dollar strength. Our EUR/USD forecasts next year assume an additional 50bps of re-pricing in the US front-end equivalent to a 1.08-1.10 EUR/USD equilibrium but not much more. We worry this would be enough to invert the US yield curve and have a bigger impact on commodities than assumed; we are bearish oil in 2022.

  4. Beware omicron and China.

  Many in recent weeks have asked whether omicron is a “game changer” for the outlook. Our view is that market pricing is here because of the persistence of COVID this year not despite it, and therefore omicron is likely to aggravate all preexisting trends: too much consumption of goods over services, low neutral, inflation for bad reasons, strong dollar, flattening US yield curve. We are especially worried about what omicron means for China. The zero-COVID policy has not been tested under a far more transmissible strain and the level of disruption that may be needed to maintain containment may entail even greater supply disruption than what has been seen so far this year. As far as FX goes, while recent policy actions out of China (the RRR FX increase, higher fixings and greater emphasis on growth) all signal greater official dissatisfaction with CNY strength, it can only be a policy shift towards greater capital outflows (QDII, “wealth connect”) that would be the true game changer.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 21:00

• YouTube Dislikes Reappear With This Google Chrome Extension
  YouTube Dislikes Reappear With This Google Chrome Extension

  Have you missed out on the days when there were huge amounts of downvotes on videos posted by the Biden administration? The ratio of upvotes to downvotes was so embarrassing for the administration that, for whatever reason, YouTube announced on Nov. 11 that it would hide “dislikes” to curb “creator harassment.” 

  Anyone using Google Chrome can now install a plugin to return YouTube dislikes. The plugin is called “Return YouTube Dislike” and is downloadable in the chrome web store. The overview of the plugin reads:

  “Uses data gathered before google closed dislike counts. Very accurate for videos published before Dec. 13 2021. It might be less accurate for unpopular videos published after Dec. 13. Counts votes made by extension users and extrapolates the number to the total number of viewers of a video. This extension is in a very active development phase – so if you experience any issues – don’t hesitate to report them on our GitHub page or in discord. Wait a few days and everything will be fixed.”

  

  According to the chrome web store, the plugin is used by over 900k users and has a five-star rating. We put the plugin to the test, and it works. 

  

  If readers remember, the whole controversy before YouTube made the dislike button invisible was the huge dislike ratios of President Biden’s speeches. 

  Is this the reason? pic.twitter.com/BSaM92k9Vl

  — 🙂FRANK SINATRA (@FRANK_SINATRA7) November 10, 2021

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  Or this lol pic.twitter.com/WOO1QmvzC7

  — 𝐏𝐄𝐘𝐓𝐎𝐍 💎🙌 (@Paytawn) November 10, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Gee, I wonder why they’re about to hide dislikes.

  It’s a total mystery. pic.twitter.com/tCEwDDVdBY

  — Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) November 10, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Make The YouTube’s Dislike Button Great Again” involves one simple download. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 20:40

• Buchanan: Are Autocrats Always Adversaries?
  Buchanan: Are Autocrats Always Adversaries?

  Authored by Pat Buchanan,

  When did the political systems of 193 nations become the business of the government of the United States? And who elected us Americans to write the moral code for the regimes that rule other lands?

  

  Consider: On taking office, President Joe Biden pledged to center his foreign policy “on the defense of democracy and the protection of human rights.”

  At his Summit for Democracy, he said it was America’s intent to undertake the bolstering of democracy and human rights worldwide.

  Yet no nation bristles more than we Americans do when we discover foreign regimes meddling in our politics or presidential elections.

  Why?

  Historically, Americans have collaborated not only with democracies but also with autocrats, dictators, monarchs and tyrants.

  George Washington danced a jig when he learned an alliance had been forged with the France of King Louis XVI to fight beside us in our war of independence against the England of King George III, in whose army Washington had himself fought in the French and Indian War.

  In the War of 1812, the United States fought the same British enemy as Napoleon was fighting, which may explain why the British enthusiastically burned our Capitol and White House in August 1814.

  In World War I, we “make-the-world-safe-for-democracy” Americans were wartime allies of the British, French, Russian and Japanese empires.

  At the 1919 Paris Peace Conference, President Woodrow Wilson signed the documents that parceled out Germanic lands and peoples against their will and in violation of Wilson’s own professed doctrine of self-determination.

  Against Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany from 1941 to 1945, our principal allies, whose armies did most of the fighting and dying, were Joseph Stalin and Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek. Neither was a democrat.

  During the Cold War, we were at times allied with South Korean dictators, Argentine generals, Greek colonels, the shah of Iran, Gen. Augusto Pinochet of Chile, Latin American despots, African kleptocrats and assorted royals across the Middle East.

  The world’s largest democracy during the Cold War was India, which sided with Moscow, while autocratic and Muslim Pakistan lined up with us.

  President Richard Nixon’s great diplomatic achievement, the 1972 opening to China, established a detente between the world’s greatest democracy and its most monstrous and murderous tyranny. U.S. elites were elated.

  The point of the recitation? In times of crisis for our republic, we have often found allies in autocrats and dictators while democracies such as India and Sweden remained basically neutral.

  Nations judge friends not by the ideology that they profess but by how they behave when a crisis comes.

  When the Yom Kippur War broke out in 1973, autocratic Portugal allowed the use of the Azores for U.S. planes carrying tanks and guns to Israel. Some of our other allies remained neutral.

  Lately, we have been preaching the superiority of our democracy as a political system for all peoples, as it manifests “universal values.”

  But if tomorrow the kings of Morocco, Jordan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, and the emirs of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, fell to popular uprisings in the name of democracy, how beneficial would this be to the U.S.?

  A decade ago, when the Arab Spring produced free elections in Egypt and the Palestinian territories, the big winners were the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.

  Again, when did the political systems of foreign nations that do not threaten or attack us become an American concern?

  When did they become any of our business?

  During the Cold War, Stalin imposed communism on that half of Europe he had conquered in World War II. Nikita Khrushchev brayed, “We will bury you!” and, “Your grandchildren will live under communism.”

  But Russian President Vladimir Putin does not say, “Your grandchildren will live under communism” or under autocracy. Or under Russian rule.

  Nor does the China of Xi Jinping, who preaches the supremacy of his system, attempt to impose communist ideology on his neighbors who have not embraced it.

  China is communist to the core, but outside the territories it claims as its own — such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Inner Mongolia — it does not impose its ideology. It does not impose Communist Party rule.

  It was the U.S. under President George W. Bush that preached a global crusade for democracy. It is the United States that today backs color-coded revolutions to overturn regimes in the Balkans, Caucasus and Near East.

  It is the United States whose National Endowment for Democracy and its subsidiaries, and government-backed NGOs, interfere incessantly in the internal affairs of other nations to extend our democratist ideology.

  Most autocrats are nationalists, not transnational crusaders.

  It is not Putin who is dividing the world based on ideology.

  It is Biden who sees the world as divided between saints and sinners, democrats and autocrats and, by coercion and conversion, seeks to grow the camp of the saints. Pakistan is invited to the democracy summit, while NATO ally Hungary is blackballed.

  In the great power struggle of the present, among America, Russia and China, it is the Americans who are waging relentless ideological wars. And ideological wars often end in shooting wars.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 20:20

• Eighteen 'Offensive' Words You Can't Say In Canada
  Eighteen ‘Offensive’ Words You Can’t Say In Canada

  Authored by Walter E. Block via The Libertarian Institute,

  Think that the US is the wokiest nation on the planet? Think again. Canada is coming up fast, and with its latest initiative, appears to be on the inside track. What has the Great White (pardon me for using this word) North done to warrant this characterization? They have come up with eighteen words that are offensive; you say them only at your peril, at least in the frozen country to the north of the U.S.

  What are these words? They are as follows:

  Ghetto; sell someone down the river; blackmail; brainstorm; savage; gypped; pow wow; tribe; spooky; black sheep; blind spot; blindsided; first world problem; spirit animal; tone deaf; lame; grandfathered in; crippled.

  

  Say what?

  Some of these are easy to understand, from the social justice point of view. It is clear that savage, pow wow, tribe and spirit animal are cultural appropriations from native Indians. But why not, then, also, prohibit teepee, buffalo, wild horses, tent, beads, wampum and other words associated with this group of people? Similarly, any fair minded person can readily see why the differently abled snowflakes would take offense at tone deaf; lame; crippled, blind spot; blindsided.

  But should we not then add to the list words such as color blind, near sighted, far sighted; deaf; hard of hearing, etc. And, yes, we can easily discern why hyper sensitive black people (people of color is now ok, but perish even the thought about colored people, despite the fact that the National Association of Colored People has not yet seen fit to change their name), would take it amiss if people used someone down the river; blackmail; brainstorm, black sheep, spooky. But there are many other such words we could at once add to this list; black hole (in astronomy); blacksmith; blackout; blacktop; blacking; nonblack; blackfly; blackbird; blackberry; blackguard; blacklist; blackjack; blackboard, blackgammon. These, too, should be condemned as irretrievably racist, a product of systemic racism. (It turns out that there are no fewer than 279 words with the letters “black” in them in the English language; space limitations do not allow me to list them all; grr!). And then there is cotton, sugar cane, tobacco, all crops picked by slaves; should they be unmentionable too? The feminists see red (if this color is still allowed; see pow wow, tribe, above) with the use of grandfathered in.

  But what about man? Even woman and person should be shelved. Hint: look at the last sexist syllables of those words. Maybe we could use wodaughter and perdaughter in their places? Who knows?

  Similarly, gypped is understood, but there are numerous other words of this ilk, which cannot appear in this family oriented periodical; should the mere mention of them, even to warn against them, be verboten? Even the way Lenny Bruce use the N word? Indubitably. Yes, of course “first world problem” is insulting. The poor, the impoverished, those from developing nations (many are retrogressing) can readily take umbrage at this phrase. Maybe, while we are at it, we should also ban poor, poverty, impoverished, etc.?

  

  We have here a linguistic land mine. We have been told to mind our p’s and q’s, but that is now just the tip of the iceberg. We will now have to walk as if on egg shells regarding this new lexicon too. (Waitasec. Iceberg sounds as a disparagement to my sensitive ears. Won’t it affront tall people, cold people?)

  Is opposition to these words and phrases based on the blathering of some Canadian drunk on maple syrup? No, these orders from on high come to us from no less than the venerable and venerated Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. For those not in the know, the CBC is sort of like if The New York Times and CNN and their ilk were combined into an arm of the government. It is similar to other state-controlled news and opinion outlets such as exist in countries such as China, North Korea, and Cuba.

  The government not only makes the news, it reports on it too. So, when the CBC sets down these new linguistic rules and conventions, all Canadians must take note.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 19:40

• Heavily-Vaccinated Northeastern States Struggle With Surging Hospitalizations
  Heavily-Vaccinated Northeastern States Struggle With Surging Hospitalizations

  Fortunately, Pfizer is just about ready to roll out its new COVID pill, because case numbers are rising rapidly in the northeastern US, a part of the country that was previously overlooked because of high vaccination rates and relatively low COVID numbers. But now, emergency rooms across the region, which includes much of the Empire State, as well as the six states that comprise New England, are overflowing, while infection rates soar.

  CDC data clearly shows the spike in hospitalizations.

  

  Source: CDC, Bloomberg

  Admissions involving patients with COVID climbed 14.4% across the US in the week ended Dec. 9, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services. In New England, the rate was more than double – 33.5%.

  

  This latest surge is happening in what is perhaps the most vaccinated area of the US. In Massachusetts, where 88% of the population has had at least one dose of the vaccine, the state is planning to send out more than 2MM rapid antigen tests to the poorest communities, according to Gov. Charlie Munger.

  Just a few days ago, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul ordered masks to be worn inside all businesses in the state, largely because cases and hospitalizations have been climbing upstate and in Western New York.

  Since Thanksgiving, New York State’s seven-day average case rate has increased 43% and hospitalizations have increased 29%. The percentage of vaccinated Americans has increased about 2 percentage points in the same period – clearly not fast enough to curb the spread of the virus.

  Meanwhile, NYC is going a step further than most cities and municipalities by imposing a vaccine mandate on private-sector workers starting Dec. 27.

  As far as hospitalizations go, Maine, New Hampshire and New York have all activated the National Guard to help hospitals treat COVID patients. New Hampshire, which has the highest 7-day case rate of any state in the US, also is sending residents free at-home rapid COVID tests. Within a day of the Nov. 29 offer to send tests to any resident, all 800K tests were taken. Another round was pledged, but none have been delivered.

  Moving south toward the mid-Atlantic region, we have the Garden State, which is seeing a similar trend of rising hospitalizations. In New Jersey, where hospitalizations are at the highest since the end of April, most of the new cases are among the unvaccinated, but the state is seeing more infections among those who have had two doses of the vaccine and are experiencing waning immunity, according to Gov. Phil Murphy, who urged residents to get their boosters.

  In New Jersey and the other states, hospitals are cutting back on elective procedures and other less-urgent health-care procedures to allocate more resources to fighting COVID.

  And this is all before the omicron variant – which is supposedly better at evading the protections afforded by vaccines – has even arrived.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 19:20

• Why Not A $118 Minimum Wage?
  Why Not A $118 Minimum Wage?

  Authored by John Seiler via The Epoch Times,

  Here we go again. The latest scheduled round of minimum-wage increases, to $15 per hour ($14 for small companies), starts Jan. 1. It hasn’t even gone into effect, yet calls are going out for a $18 wage. Why not $28? Or $58? Or $118?

  

  Joe Sanberg, identified by the Sacramento Bee as a “Los Angeles anti-poverty activist and entrepreneur,” is working to put on the November 2022 ballot an initiative that would boost the minimum wage to $18 by 2025. Actually, a real, “anti-poverty activist” is anyone who favors America’s free-market system that has produced all the wealth in this country, including that used to help the poor.

  Sanberg also seems not to have noticed all the Help Wanted signs throughout the state. Business owners tell me the current $14 an hour ($13 for small companies) minimum is just a “starting wage,” raised as soon as the employee gets to know the job and is adding value to the company.

  Despite the current labor shortage, California’s unemployment rate remains, as it has been for two decades, at least 2 percentage points above the national average. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in October California’s unemployment rate was 7.1 percent, tied for worst with Nevada. The national rate was 4.6 percent. That is, California’s rate was 2.5 points above the U.S. rate.

  Let’s look at some rival states, all also enjoying zero state income tax, compared to California’s 13.3 percent top rate:

  • Texas has a minimum wage of $7.25, also the national rate. Unemployment is 5.4 percent.

  • Florida’s minimum wage is $10. Unemployment is 4.6 percent.

  • Tennessee’s minimum wage is $7.25. Unemployment is 4.2 percent.

  It seems a low minimum wage combined with no state income tax is a lot better for getting people, especially the poor, jobs than is California’s formula of high taxes and a high minimum wage.

  “Cost of living is rising faster and faster,” Sanberg explained as a major need for raising the wage rate, “but wages haven’t increased commensurately.”

  But if wages are raised due to government decree, businesses will have to pay for that either with yet higher prices—or going out of business.

  He also doesn’t take into account how inland California remains much cheaper than Coastal California. Yet a statewide minimum wage would force inland businesses to pay the same high wage already common on the coast.

  A check of Zillow.com shows many homes available for $250,000 in Bakersfield—less than a quarter of asking prices in Orange County. In San Francisco and Silicon Valley, it’s even higher.

  The late economist Walter Williams also pioneered research on how a high minimum wage hurts minorities the most. He said it’s like cutting off the first rung on a ladder, making it harder to get started upward. Young people especially are hit hard because they’re just starting out and don’t have much to offer, but are willing to learn; after which their wages will rise—or they will move to another job where they are paid more.

  His study for Policy Review magazine was called “Government Sanctioned Restraints that Reduce Economic Opportunity for Minorities.”

  Williams wrote, “The minimum wage law gives firms effective economic incentive to hire only the most productive employees which means that firms are less willing to hire and/or train the least productive, which includes teenagers and particularly minority teenagers. But holding all else constant, such as worker productivity, such a wage law gives firms the incentive to indulge in whatever preferences that they may hold.”

  He noted how black youth unemployment in the 1940s and early 1950s actually was less than for white youth. In 1948, it was 9.4 percent for black kids, but 10.2 percent for white kids.

  But then in the late 1950s, the minimum wage was increased by 33 percent, to $1 an hour. That pushed black youth unemployment above that for white youth, and it never has gone the other way since.

  In November 2021, according to the St. Louis Fed, black youth unemployment (16 to 19 years old) nationally was 21.9 percent, almost double the 11.2 percent rate for all youth that age.

  If Sanberg’s initiative makes it to the ballot, we can expect heavy support from the Democratic Party and unions, and opposition from the restaurant and hospitality industries. And if it passes, California will in yet another way become less hospitable to businesses and jobs creation.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 19:00

• Omicron On Track To 'Massively Disrupt' Pro Sports
  Omicron On Track To ‘Massively Disrupt’ Pro Sports

  With the emerging spread of the hyper-transmissible yet mildly symptomatic Omicron strain of Covid-19, policymakers have gone back to their ‘plague’ playbook of masks, vaccination campaigns, lockdowns and other measures despite an absolute dropoff in case fatality rates in regions hit early by the latest variant.

  

  And as Axios notes, Omicron now threatens to ‘massively disrupt’ the sports world. On Tuesday, 37 players in just the NFL tested positive for Covid-19, the league’s worst day since the pandemic began. As a result, Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey, Giants wide receiver Kedarius Toney and Chiefs wide receiver Josh Gordon were among those who landed on Covid reserve as a result.

  More via Axios:

  • NBA: The Bulls on Monday became the first NBA team to have games postponed this season (today against the Pistons, Thursday against the Raptors) as they deal with an outbreak that’s already landed 10 players in COVID protocols (of note, the NBA changed its definition of “fully vaccinated” to include a booster as of Dec. 17).

  • NHL: The league on Monday postponed Calgary’s next three games after six players and a staffer landed in protocols. The Flames join the Senators and Islanders as the third team this season with a postponement.

  • NFL: A record 37 players tested positive on Monday after a weekend that saw at least a dozen other players miss games due to COVID protocols. In mid-November, the NFL announced in a statement that more than 94 percent of players and nearly 100 percent of personnel are double jabbed.

  • European soccer: At least five Premier League teams are dealing with outbreaks a week after Tottenham’s outbreak led the league to reinstate emergency COVID measures. Germany’s Bundesliga, meanwhile, is limiting crowd capacity amid rising cases.

  • College sports: Tulane’s men’s basketball team is temporarily shutting down amid an outbreak, with all three games this week postponed.

  • Tennis: Emma Raducanu, the reigning U.S. Open champ who last week was named WTA’s Newcomer of the Year, tested positive and is out of this week’s event in Abu Dhabi.

  Again, this is what we’re dealing with in terms of the new threat to the general public by all early indications:

  

  Axios notes that while the Delta variant hit over the summer, when “most vaccinated arms had been freshly jabbed,” Omicron is set to hit in the spring, as vaccine effectiveness wanes.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 18:40

• Crypto-Chaos: CoinMarketCap "Price Issues" Creates Instant-Trillionaires
  Crypto-Chaos: CoinMarketCap “Price Issues” Creates Instant-Trillionaires

  Is this what hyperinflation feels like?

  For a brief moment this afternoon, the world was full of trillionaires as one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency price providers appeared to have been hacked, showing massively inaccurate prices across all tokens.

  

  CoinMarketCap began showing the massive numbers for assets like Bitcoin, which was priced at $789,432,690,634.70, while Ethereum showed up as being worth over $523 billion each.

  The website quickly issued a statement to explain it was “undergoing price issues”:

  Our website is currently undergoing Price Issues

  The Engineering team is aware of incorrect price information appearing on https://t.co/3AD93ocjMp.

  We are currently investigating and will update this status when we have more information. 👍 🙏

  — CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) December 14, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The “issues” sent cryptocurrency holders’ portfolios soaring explosively higher – with many becoming instant trillionaires…

  

  

  

  Or just $400 billionaires…

  

  Many exchanges were affected including Coinbase:

  We’re aware some customers are seeing inflated values for non-tradable crypto assets on https://t.co/ohqDivCZYw and Coinbase Wallet. This is a display issue only and does not impact trading.

  — Coinbase Support (@CoinbaseSupport) December 14, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Apologies for any confusion – we’re still investigating asset price and trade difficulties on @CoinbaseWallet. Our teams are digging in to investigate and fix.

  — Coinbase Support (@CoinbaseSupport) December 14, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  CoinMarketCap appeared to find some humor in it – once their systems were back online:

  How did it feel to be a trillionaire for a couple hours?😂

  — CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) December 14, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  But we suspect more than a few traders are very upset at what just happened.

  How many crypto shorts covered when they saw they are down a few trillion dollars.

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 14, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  When the boomers see the @CoinMarketCap glitch and panic sell #CoinMarketCap pic.twitter.com/4i65xcgTUl

  — Brandon (@RevivalBran) December 14, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  One thing to consider for some is how this ‘hack’ could be a perfect dry-run example of what central bank digital currencies could do one day:  people wake up and their CBDC wallets are up by 1,000,000,000%… but they have to spend the money in the next 30 days… and bread costs $1,000,000 per loaf.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 18:20

• Dems Boosts Debt Ceiling By $2.5 Trillion
  Dems Boosts Debt Ceiling By $2.5 Trillion

  Update (1745ET): The US Senate has voted to increase the country’s debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion, enough to fund operations through early 2023.

  Passed by a 50-49 party line vote, the plan is to send it to President Biden’s desk for his signature.

  “Responsible governing has won on this exceedingly important issue,” said Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of the increase in borrowing. “The American people can breathe easy and rest assured there will not be a default,” he added.

  The current federal debt is $28.9 trillion, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellenhas warned that the government could have difficulty meeting its obligations after Dec. 15, though outside analysts have said the government has a bit more time.

  The Senate acted as a result of legislation Congress approved last week establishing a one-time process to fast-track the measure by shielding it from the threat of a GOP filibuster in the 50-50 Senate and allowing it to pass with a simple majority. -Bloomberg

  Congress last raised the debt ceiling in October with a $480 billion band-aid which followed weeks of partisan jousting.

  *  *  *

  Senate Democrats are seeking to increase the debt limit by $2.5 trillion, which would fund the government through early 2023, according to a Joint Resolution released on Tuesday.

  

  The new figure comes as Congressional Democrats plan on a Tuesday vote to raise the debt ceiling, just one day before Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s prediction that US could default as soon as Dec. 15.

  The effort will begin in the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is expected to advance a debt-limit resolution early Tuesday afternoon. That procedural green light will mark the start of 10 hours of Senate debate allowed for under the resolution, split between the two parties.

  Schumer said Tuesday morning that Democrats will likely yield some portion of their debate time to speed up the process. While a vote could slip to the evening hours if Republicans use all their allotted time, the chamber’s Democrats are expected to pass a debt-ceiling increase before the end of the day. –CNBC

  Once through the Senate, the bill will then go to the House, where Democrats are expected to approve it and send it to President Biden’s desk later in the day, or early Wednesday.

  According to Schumer, the Democrats will raise the debt limit “to a level commensurate with funding necessary to get into 2023.

  Democrats own the increase after 14 Republicans joined every Democrat in the Senate to allow a one-time simple majority vote to lift the debt ceiling without the 60 votes typically required to break a filibuster.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 12/14/2021 – 17:45

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• Huxley's Ultimate Revolution: The Battle For Your Mind & The Relativity Of Madness
  Huxley’s Ultimate Revolution: The Battle For Your Mind & The Relativity Of Madness

  Authored by Cynthia Chung via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  The relevance of the Esalen Institute’s “revisioning of madness” needs to be acknowledged as having been entirely spear-headed by the Tavistock Institute, and clearly, not for our benefit.

  “America is the prophetic image of the rest of the urban-industrial world as it will be a few years from now – recent public opinion polls have revealed that an actual majority of young people in their teens, the voters of tomorrow, have no faith in democratic institutions, see no objection to the censorship of unpopular ideas, do not believe that government of the people by the people is possible and would be perfectly content, if they can continue to live in the style to which the boom has accustomed them, to be fueled, from above, by an oligarchy of assorted experts. That so many of the well-fed young television-watchers in the world’s most powerful democracy should be so completely indifferent to the idea of self-government, so blankly uninterested in freedom of thought and the right to dissent, is distressing but not too surprising.”

  – Aldous Huxley’s “Brave New World Revisited” (1958)

  As discussed in Part 3 of this series, Aldous Huxley would be mentored in the ways of Monte Verità, Ascona through the mentorship of D.H. Lawrence. It was through Lawrence’s teachings that Aldous Huxley, Gerald Heard and Christopher Isherwood would form the core of the group, Sonnenkinder (The Children of the Sun). Lawrence’s teaching of Ascona to the Sonnenkinder (greatly influenced by Mikhail Bakunin and Otto Gross, a disciple of Freud) would go on to shape the Human Potential Movement and the Esalen Institute to which this paper will focus on. [Note: Carl Jung was also a significant member of the Monte Verità, Ascona.]

  

  Monte Verità became the international meeting place for all those who rebelled against science, technology, and the rise of the modern industrial nation-state.

  As already discussed in Part 3, the Ordo Templi Orientis (O.T.O.) had established their headquarters in Basel, Switzerland as the “Anational Grand Lodge and Mystic Temple” (aka Verità Mystica) and at Monte Verità as the “Hermetic Brotherhood of Light.”

  In August 1917, Outer Head Theodor Reuss issued a manifesto for his Anational Grand Lodge (O.T.O), called “Verità Mystica.” He then held the “Anational Congress for Organizing the Reconstruction of Society on Practical and Cooperative Lines” at Monte Verità August 15–25, 1917. He wanted to create a new ethic, a new social order, and a new religion, to be achieved through the establishment of utopian-bohemian colonies and settlements throughout the world that was to run counter to the world of science and technology and the industrial nation-state.

  Recall from Part 3 that Light is a common theme (Children of the Sun, Brotherhood of Light). It is also mentioned by the Theosophical Society, a sister organization of Monte Verità, started by Madame Blavatsky, in her “The Secret Doctrine,” where she references the mystery of the “fall” to Earth of the rebellious angels – the solar angels or agnishvattas, to which Lucifer is the best-known representative.

  [Note: see “Descent and Sacrifice” by the Lucis Trust, originally titled Lucifer Publishing Company, a major public player within the United Nations, which was founded by prominent Theosophical Society member Alice Bailey.]

  In the words of Alice Bailey, from her book “Rays and the Initiations,” we must add “darkness unto light so that the stars appear, for in the light the stars shine not, but in the darkness light diffused is not, but only focussed points of radiance.”

  Thus we must bring forth the darkness…

  In this interpretation, Lucifer is good and represents the Light. In this context Children of the Sun (the Sonnekinder) could also be connoted as Children of the Solar-Angels; and thus the Children of Lucifer (see Part 3). This explains what influenced the gruesome Solar Lodge to choose such a name, a so-called renegade society of the Ordo Templi Orientis in California, which used the curriculum of the A∴A∴ established by Aleister Crowley (A∴A∴ is a so-called magical organization created by Crowley in 1907 and claims to use the essence of Theravada Buddhism with Vedantic yoga and ceremonial magic).

  [Note: the Ordo Templi Orientis also practised “Sex Magic” a corrupted Western version of Kundalini Yoga or Tantric Yoga.]

  In 1921, Aleister Crowley succeeded Theodor Reuss as Outer Head of the Order of the Ordo Templi Orientis.

  In 1935, Crowley founded the Agape Lodge No. 2 in Los Angeles.

  In 1937, Aldous would move with his family and his fellow Sonnenkinder Gerald Heard to Hollywood, where he would remain until his death. Christopher Isherwood would make the move to Hollywood in 1939.

  And just like that, the teachings of Ascona in Hollywood became a primary focus of Crowley and the Sonnenkinder, and together they would dominate the scene out of which the counterculture movement would be born.

  It is here that we will resume the story.

  Hollywood’s Fake Guru Industry

  “For the radical and permanent transformation of personality only one effective method has been discovered – that of the mystics.”

  – Aldous Huxley (1941)

  It did not take long upon the arrival of Aldous Huxley and Gerald Heard to California for them to become quick friends with Jiddu Krishnamurti, who had moved to Ojai, California in 1922.

  Krishnamurti had been selected by Annie Besant, a prominent leader of the Theosophical Society, as a young adolescent boy in India as the likely “vehicle for the Lord Maitreya” in 1909. Maitreya means “future Buddha” and the Theosophical Society promoted Krishnamurti as an advanced spiritual entity that periodically appears on Earth as a World Teacher to guide the evolution of humankind.

  The World Teacher, who supposedly had no religion nor followed any particular school of thought, was ironically tutored solely by Annie Besant for his entire education as a youth.

  Interestingly, Krishnamurti was regarded with great suspicion by the Vedanta Society, the latter to which Huxley, Heard, and Isherwood were also very close to and frequented the Southern California branch regularly. They were known as the three English “beacons” of Vedanta. The Vedanta Society promotes the study, practice and propagation of Vedanta, one of the six ancient schools of Hindu philosophy and is part of the Ramakrishna Order.

  Alan Watts, a renown Western Guru of Zen Buddhism, describes in his autobiography “In My Own Way” (1972) an encounter he had with Swami Prabhavananda, of the Southern California Vedanta Society:

  Swami – “…his [Krishnamurti’s] teaching is very misleading. I mean, he seems to be saying that one can attain realization without any kind of yoga or spiritual method, and of course that isn’t true.”

  Watts – “No, indeed, if in fact there is something to be attained.  Your Upanishads say very plainly, Tat tvam asi, You ARE That, so what is there to be attained?”

  Swami – “…But this is ridiculous. That amounts to saying that an ordinary ignorant and deluded person is just as good, or just as realized, as an advanced yogi.”

  Watts – “Exactly. And what advanced yogi would deny it?  Doesn’t he see the Brahman everywhere, and in all people, all beings?”

  Swami – “You are saying, that you yourself, or just any other person, can realize that you are the Brahman just as you are, without any spiritual effort or discipline at all!”

  Watts – “Just so.  After all, one’s very not realizing is, in its turn, also the Brahman. According to your own doctrine, what else is there, what else is real other than the Brahman?”

  Alan Watts, who would also become a part of the Sonnenkinder group, was a student of Christmas Humphreys, who founded the London Buddhist Lodge in 1924. The impetus for founding the lodge came chiefly from Annie Besant (President of the Theosophical Society from 1907-1933). Alice Bailey also frequented the lodge.

  Thus, Krishnamurti and Watts were from the same school of Annie Besant.

  Interestingly, Swami Prabhavananda of the Vedanta Society, had reported that Annie Besant had been banned from the Ramakrishna Order in India by the Head of the Chief Monastery Brahmananda, since Besant was trying to infiltrate the Order.

  In 1929, Krishnamurti had disavowed the title of “World Teacher” and gave the impression that he had also disavowed the entire Theosophical Society, which is not true.

  Not only did Krishnamurti continue a dialogue with many of the members of the society, but he co-founded the “Happy Valley School” in 1946 with among others, Aldous Huxley. The school today is recognised as a continuation of Besant’s vision for an educational community, which was renamed the “Besant Hill School” in 2007.

  Aldous and Krishnamurti were so close that when Aldous had moved in 1945 to the mountains in Wrightwood, San Gabriel with his family from their Llano ranch, Krishnamurti followed them moving into a place a few houses down.

  It appears much of Krishnamurti’s supposed distancing from the Theosophical Society was mainly for the public eye, and as clearly showcased here, many of the members of the Theosophical Society including Annie Besant had made a very shoddy impression on the Hindu religious leadership.

  Perhaps Krishnamurti was attempting a second infiltration, thinking his odds would be better if he claimed to disavow the Theosophical Society, despite his teachings remaining the same.

  Krishnamurti’s emphasis on skipping steps would be a very destructive influence that laid the groundwork for the counterculture movement as we will see, and regardless of what Huxley’s intention was with the Vedanta Society, one thing can be sure, he decided in the end to dedicate himself to the path of Krishnamurti.

  Music, Trance and Schizophrenia

  “The resolute facing of the world as it is, when the garment of make-believe, by which pious hands have hidden its uglier features, is stripped off.”

  – Aldous Huxley

  Another prominent base of contact Huxley had made upon his arrival to California was with Austrian-Polish actress and screen writer (for MGM and Greta Garbo roles) Salka Viertel’s Sunday salon in Los Angeles which was from the 1930s-50s a central place for networking, consisting of Hollywood intelligentsia and the émigré community of European intellectuals- many of whom formed the basis of the new Frankfurt School.

  Among its regular Sunday attendees were Arnold Schoenberg, Maria and Aldous Huxley, Christopher Isherwood, Theodor W. Adorno, Thomas Mann (who collaborated with Adorno on “Doctor Faustus”), Bertolt Brecht, Hanns Eisler, Greta Garbo, and George Cukor.

  Theodor Adorno, in his youth was a promising future concert pianist, who later studied in Vienna under the atonal composer Arnold Schoenberg. In 1946, while in the U.S. working on the Frankfurt School’s “Cultural Pessimism” agenda, he wrote the book “The Philosophy of Modern Music,” a diatribe against Classical culture, writing:

  “What radical music perceives is the untransfigured suffering of man…Modern music sees absolute oblivion as its goal. It is not that schizophrenia is directly expressed therein; but the music imprints upon itself an attitude similar to that of the mentally ill. The individual brings about his own disintegration…. He imagines the fulfillment of the promise through magic, but nonetheless within the realm of immediate actuality…. Its concern is to dominate schizophrenic traits through the aesthetic consciousness. In so doing, it would hope to vindicate insanity as true health.”

  This was to be one of the major undercurrents that shaped the philosophy of the COUNTER-Culture movement. The name said it all. And the so-called freedom from the “shackles” of classical culture was to take the form of invoking schizophrenic traits through the domain of the aesthetic consciousness (aesthetic means the set of principles that underlie how we define and appreciate a standard for “beauty”).

  It was the application of the Frankfurt School’s “Critical Theory” where everything that came before us within any field of established learning now had to be thrown into the garbage and we had to face the task of reprogramming how we viewed our world, our reality. This could only occur by invoking extreme states of fragmentation, schizophrenia, in order to build back the pieces in a so-called more truthful way without the cultural blinders from the past.

  Part of this freeing oneself from classical culture, was to free ourselves from the classical understanding of aesthetics, and thus a central tenet of the counterculture movement was to now regard the ugly as beautiful, the beautiful as ugly, and insanity as the new sanity.

  In Huxley’s “Brave New World Revisited” (1958), he quotes Dr. Erich Fromm, “philosopher-psychiatrist” from the Frankfurt School of Critical Theory:

  “Our ‘increasing mental sickness’ may find expression in neurotic symptoms. These symptoms are conspicuous and extremely distressing. But ‘let us beware,’ says Dr. Fromm, ‘of defining mental hygiene as the prevention of symptoms. Symptoms as such are not our enemy, but our friend’…”

  Interestingly, Tavistock-linked psychiatrist William Sargant, with whom Huxley had also come into close correspondence, had discussed in “Battle for the Mind” (1957) his intrigue in the “dancing mania” phenomenon that arose during the Black Death which caused a heightened suggestibility capable of causing a person to “embrace with equal force, reason and folly, good and evil, diminish the praise of virtue as well as the criminality of vice.”

  Sargant goes on to write:

  “The Voodoo cult of Haiti shows with what ease suggestibility can be increased by subjecting the brain to severe physiological stresses. Voodoo has numerous deities, or loa…The loa are believed to descend and take possession of a person, usually while he or she is dancing to the drums…The ease of men and women who have ben worked up into a state of suggestibility by Voodoo drumming shows the power of such methods…[they] found it more and more easy to respond to the drums and the dancing, and…the sense of ‘being overwhelmed by a transcendent force…[this] softening-up process…made them suggestible to the most varied types of dogma.”

  Sargant quotes Aldous Huxley from a special appendix to his “The Devils of Loudun” (considered Huxley’s best work by many modern critics today):

  “No man, however, civilized, can listen for very long to African drumming, or Indian chanting…and retain intact his critical and self-conscious personality. It would be interesting to take a group of the most eminent philosophers from the best universities, shut them up in a hot room…and measure…the strength of their psychological resistance to the effects of rhythmic sound…Meanwhile, all we can safely predict is that, if exposed long enough to tom-toms and the singing, every one of our philosophers would end by capering and howling with the savages.”

  Sargant concludes:

  “But we do also know that there are philosophers who are more easily converted to new behaviour patterns and new beliefs by means of solitary prayer, and fasting, or even by the use of drugs such as mescalin.”

  Aldous had a very clear interest in how one could bring about a schizophrenic state chemically, also allowing for heightened suggestibility. Six years before writing “Brave New World Revisited,” in 1952, Huxley would arrange to meet a Dr. Humphrey Osmond who had just published a psychiatric study titled “A New Approach to Schizophrenia.”

  Osmond, the man who would coin the term “psychedelic” meaning “mind-revealing,” had been working with mescaline and had asserted in his study that psychedelics produced a psychological state identical to schizophrenia. Osmond was studying mescaline for its chemical similarity to adenochrome, a substance produced in the body through the oxidation of adrenaline and linked to inducing schizophrenic traits.

  In 1940, a doctor had noted that “the characteristic effect of mescaline is a molecular fragmentation of the entire personality.”

  It was Huxley’s experience taking mescaline in the presence of Dr. Humphrey Osmond in 1953 that would inspire his writing “The Doors of Perception,” considered the instruction manual for what started the counterculture movement.

  Although many were appalled by Huxley’s detailed disclosure of his taking mescaline and linking it as a short-cut to passing through the door that would reveal to one the secret mysteries, yes even Aldous believed this himself, it is nothing surprising.

  As already discussed in detail in Part 2, T.H. Huxley (Darwin’s bulldog) was considered an almost god-like figure in the Huxley household, with Aldous’ father focusing much of his work writing on the work of T.H. and Darwin. Aldous and Julian would be raised in this larger than human personality with the pressure that it was their calling to continue this legacy. Anything short would be considered a terrible failure.

  In fact, the Victorian period of Aldous’ birth was a time of enormous interest in parapsychology. One of T.H. Huxley’s close associates on Darwinism, Alfred Russell Wallace, was among the new breed “scientifically” testing psychic powers, along with William Crookes, F. W. H. Myers and renown psychologist William James. Their efforts to develop rigorous tests of mediums, telepathy, and materializations led to the founding of the Society of Psychical Research, the Theosophical Society and their American branches.

  Small world isn’t it?

  One of the “forbidden books” that were kept in Mustapha Mond’s library was “The Varieties of Religious Experience: A Study in Human Nature” by William James, which is a study of private religious experiences and mysticism.

  With T.H. Huxley having coined the term agnosticism (from Greek agnōstos, “unknowable”) meaning one can only claim to know anything through their direct sensory experience, Aldous owed it to his god-head grandfather to keep an ever “open mind.”

  As Aldous was experiencing his first trip on mescaline in 1953, which was recorded for further study, Dr. Humphry Osmond asked him:

  “So you think you know where madness lies?”

  My [Aldous] answer was a convinced and heartfelt, “yes.”

  “And you couldn’t control it?”

  “No, I couldn’t control it.”

  The Esalen Institute: The Human Potential Movement Meets the Tavistock Institute

  “Welcome, this is the first manifestation of the Brave New World”

  – spoken at the Human Be-In “A Gathering of Tribes” Jan. 1967 which is credited for launching the “Summer of Love”

  At this historical “Gathering of the Tribes,” Lenore Kandel, American poet with the Beat Generation  exclaimed “The Buddha will reach us all through love, not through doctrines not through teaching…And as I am looking at all of you, I feel more and more that Matreiya is not this time going to be born out of one physical body, but born out of all of us. It’s happening perhaps today. This is an invocation for Matreiya, may he come.” (video min 12:03)

  The reader should take note, the very clear sharing of philosophy with that of Krishnamurti. That there should be no work for reaching the stage of “enlightenment,” rather it is simply to open oneself as an empty vessel and let the “universe,” or whatever is around, pour in.

  This perversion of Indian philosophy was similar to the sleight of hand that had then been occurring in the Christian world guided by Jesuit theologian Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (a close friend to Aldous’ brother Julian Huxley)- whose concept of a trans-human noetic evolution guided by an oncoming “Christ consciousness” shared many parallels to this eastern variant.

  Aldous was very much interested in the study of Christian mysticism which led to his writing “The Devils of Loudun” among other works.

  “Christianity without tears – that’s what soma is.”

  This is also interesting in the context of Gerald Heard’s intellect having been “hewn by the Jesuits and by Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge” according to the author of “Huxley in Hollywood,” David King Dunaway.

  The Human Be-In was organised as an LSD-25 event. It had a turnout of anywhere between 25,000 to 50,000 people. Free sandwiches were distributed laced with LSD and the “Summer of Love,” otherwise known as the first manifestation of the Brave New World, was born.

  The reader should be aware, though it gets much much stranger, that The Grateful Dead were among the bands to play at this “Gathering of Tribes.” The Grateful Dead was and is regarded as the epitome band of the counterculture movement. Interestingly, Alan Trist, the son of Eric Trist (who is the founder of the Tavistock Institute for Human Relations, the psychological warfare division of British Intelligence) is the one that put together the band.

  In 1962, Robert Hunter, the Grateful Dead lyricist, was among the volunteers for the renown anthropologist Gregory Bateson’s Palo Alto experiments using LSD, psilocybin and mescaline, for Stanford University. The research was covertly sponsored by the CIA in its MKULTRA program: other participants included Ken Kesey and Allen Ginsberg. Ken Kesey would become famous writing the book “One Flew of the Cuckoo’s Nest” on the relativity of madness in 1962, and would later form the Merry Pranksters in 1964, spreading bountiful, no questions asked, LSD to campuses across America.

  Bateson, husband of renown cultural anthropologist Margaret Mead, also played a prominent role in the curriculum of the Esalen Institute which had direct ties to the Tavistock Institute which we will see shortly.

  There never was an organic impetus to organise a “Gathering of the Tribes”. Rather, it was micromanaged from the very start by Tavistock and the CIA, using the very techniques that the Frankfurt School, William Sargant and Aldous Huxley et al. very publicly discussed several years before.

  Both Aldous and Gerald Heard played central roles in developing the Human Potential Movement (HPM) to which the Esalen Institute is recognised as officially launching.

  The founders of the Esalen Institute, Richard Price and Michael Murphy, got the idea for Esalen’s core raisons d’être largely from Aldous’ lecture on “Human Potentialities” in 1960, at the University of California, San Francisco Medical Center. In this lecture, Huxley had challenged the budding students to figure out ways to tap into the full potential of humankind that had become latent over the centuries. In his lecture, Aldous discusses how it would be a good idea if an institution could launch a program to research methods for actualizing “human potentialities”, along the lines of his Brave New World, to be studied, evaluated, and put to use by society. Murphy and Price were enthralled.

  In 1961, Murphy and Price would visit Gerald Heard who would continue where Aldous left off on the discussion of human potentialities.

  The Esalen Institute, founded in 1962, held their first series of seminars, which they called “The Human Potentialities”. It included a seminar entitled “Drug Induced Mysticism”. The institute was staffed with LSD 25 researchers, and drugs circulated through-out the seminars. It launched what became known as “The Human Potential Movement”.

  The idea was how to take hold of one’s self-evolution.

  In 1956, psychiatrist R.D. Laing would train on a grant at the Tavistock Clinic in London, where he remained until 1964.

  In a 1967 pamphlet published by the Esalen Institute titled “Where It’s At,” it is written on pg 38:

  “Richard Price, co-founder of Esalen, is working with R.D. Laing of London’s Tavistock Clinic on a proposal to establish a Blowout Center at Big Sur, where a small, selected group of psychotics will be treated as persons on voyages of discovery and allowed to go through their psychoses. It appears that the nonparanoid, acute schizophrenic break is relatively short and is followed by a re-integrative process, so that the individual returns from his ‘trip’ with a higher IQ than at the beginning. We hope to find new ways to make such breaks valuable, function-heightening experiences.”

  Thus, the inducing of schizophrenic breaks was considered a “function-heightening experience,” or so the poor sops were told. The key to reaching maximum human potential was through the induction of madness, the fragmentation of the mind through schizophrenic breaks, with the promise that one would have a higher IQ at the end of the whole affair.

  Thus, whether you like it or not, the relevance of the Esalen Institute’s “revisioning of madness,” and Laing as the Crusader for the promotion of the clinically insane, needs to be acknowledged as having been entirely spear-headed by the Tavistock Institute, and clearly, not for our benefit.

  The reality is that the revolutionary alternative to the practice of mainstream psychology, that was sold to the masses by cult figures like R.D. Laing, was entirely controlled and shaped by the Tavistock Institute, to which MKULTRA is a branch.

  Thus, the Esalen Institute was also a continuation of the sort of horrifying psychiatric theories and practices that people were trying to escape from. It was like your psychiatric ward had just had a make-over and everything was expected to be different now since there were painted flowers on the wall.

  This becomes very clear when one looks at the type of research that was being published and promoted by the Esalen Center for Theory and Research (CTR), such as the disturbing work of Lauretta Bender (who has links to MKULTRA) using LSD and electroshock therapy on hospitalized “disturbed children”, Dr. Ewen Cameron who worked with MKULTRA also using LSD and electroshock therapy on his patients, and whose victims later sued the CIA, B.F. Skinner known for his “modern operant conditioning chambers” aka “Skinner Box” which there is reason to believe has also been used on children which can be found promoted by the Esalen CTR here and here. Esalen did not even shy away from the infamous Dr. Evil Louis Joylon West who largely headed the MKULTRA torture project.

  Notable past guest teachers and shapers of ideology and curriculum at the Esalen Institute, include: Gregory Bateson, Albert Hofmann (the creator of LSD at Sandoz Laboratories), Aldous Huxley, R.D. Laing, Abraham Maslow, Humphry Osmond, Fritz Perls (pioneer of NLP), Virginia Satir (pioneer of NLP), B.F. Skinner, Ken Kesey, Gary Snyder (one of the organisers of “A Gathering of Tribes), Arnold J. Toynbee and Alan Watts.

  Virginia Satir would become the Director of Training for the Esalen Institute.

  Aldous’ hypnopaedia concept is directly linked to neuro-linguistic programming (NLP) which became a core research subject at the Esalen Institute. NLP focuses on how to increase suggestibility within an individual and a crowd, such that they can receive a desired message or belief. It had a lot of overlap with Skinner’s Box experiment, as well as William Sargant’s work.

  Richard Bandler and John Grinder created neuro-linguistic programming (NLP) in the 1970s. In 1975 they published a book titled “The Structure of Magic,” of which there are two volumes, intended to be a codification of the therapeutic techniques of Perls and Satir.

  In the book, Bandler and Grinder claim that NLP has magic-like qualities which allow for an individual to change their model or map of “reality.” Since no objective reality exists, they assert, one can simply choose the form of reality one wishes to experience, the reality one wishes to embody. NLP techniques are used to change how an individual’s neuronal pathway responds or behaves in accordance to a specific stimulus. If enough change occurs, it is claimed that it can transform the entire personality, or create co-existing alternative personalities.

  In “The Structure of Magic,” the NLP techniques are compared to “magical incantations,” and allows for a reframing of that individual’s world. The book includes chapters such as “Becoming a Sorcerer’s Apprentice” and “The Final Incantation.” (Recall Alice Bailey’s book “Rays and the Initiations,” discussed earlier.)

  In 2008, Bandler wrote “A Guide to TRANCE-formation.”

  Steve Andreas, a student of Bandler and Grinder wrote “Virginia Satir: The Patterns of Her Magic.”

  Needless to say, we can see how such techniques if effective, could be misused, not just on the masses but on the so-called “elite,” which Esalen clearly caters to.

  Recall, even Aldous’ “Alpha Pluses” of the Brave New World needed a controller…there were only about twelve members of the Mustapha Mond status and then there was whatever was to be found past that veil. All the rest; the Deltas, Epsilons, Betas, Alphas and Alpha Pluses were all tightly controlled, micro-managed really, and were not free to escape from the existential parameters chosen for them. No one, not even an Alpha Plus, as seen with the case of Bernard Marx, were free to choose a different course than what had already been chosen for them.

  Although there are positive applications of NLP which have helped many people, within the context of this Tavistock-driven process, NLP was/is literally an attempt to reprogram the mind as if it were a circuit board. [Note: Gregory Bateson was the Cybernetics guru at the Esalen Institute.]

  Timothy Leary, at the time a young professor of psychology at Harvard who headed the Harvard Psilocybin Project (with Aldous Huxley on its founding board) from 1960-62 until he was fired, was recruited by Aldous to help shape the “Ultimate Revolution” and lead the charge of the counterculture insurgency, to which Leary described in his book “Flashbacks: A Personal and Cultural History of an Era,”:

  “We had run up against the Judeo-Christian commitment to one God, one religion, one reality, that has cursed Europe for centuries and America since our founding days. Drugs that open the mind to multiple realities inevitably lead to a polytheistic view of the universe. We sensed that the time for a new humanist religion based on intelligence, good natured pluralism and scientific paganism had arrived.”

  Leary would give the CIA full credit for starting and initiating “the entire consciousness movement, counterculture events of the 1960s” by flooding LSD into college campuses across the country and investing millions in LSD research programs. In the video, Leary looks like he is doing an ad campaign for the CIA, “buy their product, it worked for me”. (Leary would fittingly attempt to become a stand up comic in his washed up years, demoted from his prominent courtier status to that of a mere jester, if only people could have seen him for the fool he was much earlier.)

  On PBS’s Late Night America, Timothy Leary commented:

  “I’ve been an admirer of Aleister Crowley. I think that I’m carrying on much of the work that he started over a hundred years ago … He was in favor of finding yourself, and ‘Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law’ under love. It was a very powerful statement. I’m sorry he isn’t around now to appreciate the glories he started.”

  “Then you think there is no God?” [asked the Savage] “No, I think there quite probably is one.” [answered Mustapha Mond] “Then why [are you doing all of this]?…How does [God] manifest himself now?” [asked the Savage] “Well, he manifests himself as an absence; as though he weren’t there at all.” [answered Mustapha Mond] “That’s your fault.” [retorted the Savage] “Call it the fault of civilization.” [responded Mustapha Mond]

  – Aldous Huxley’s “Brave New World”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 23:40

• New Zealand Approves Orgies Of Up To 25 People As Part Of New COVID Rules
  New Zealand Approves Orgies Of Up To 25 People As Part Of New COVID Rules

  New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced the easing of COVID-19 restrictions on national television, based on a ‘traffic light system.’ She said orgies for up to 25 people are permitted.  

  Ardern spoke with Seven Sharp hosts Hilary Barry and Jeremy Wells about New Zealand’s reopening timeline, known as the traffic light system. For some context, the traffic light system categorizes freedoms available to vaccinated Kiwis based on location and whether they live in a red, orange, or green zone. 

  The traffic light system aims to end lockdowns in New Zealand and enforce vaccine passports. 

  For instance, in Auckland, a major port city in the north of the country’s North Island, lined with superyachts, the metro area is currently classified as a “red” district — meaning Kiwis can engage in everyday essential activities.

  Ardern explained on national television, “I can confirm that Tinder liaisons have reopened,” adding, “it’s not strictly embedded in the traffic light system but um, it is a given, up to 25 actually, in a red area.”

  yeah, but did your PM go on national television to officially announce that *checks notes* orgies can resume? pic.twitter.com/cG4YyIvEZT

  — Calliope Ryder (@callioperyder) December 10, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  So, to clarify, even in a red zone where COVID measures are very restricting (as outlined below), orgies of up to 25 people appear to be legal. 

  

  New Zealand is currently between red and orange. On Wednesday, Auckland will allow citizens to travel for non-essential reasons. The country has some of the strictest measures (read: here) on personal freedoms during the pandemic. 

  At least there is some good news before Christmas as the government has approved orgies. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 23:20

• Is Beijing Weaponizing Your DNA?
  Is Beijing Weaponizing Your DNA?

  Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

  Why is a US DNA-processing firm sharing Americans’ DNA with China? The answer is staggering…

  

  If you’ve had a COVID-19 test, there’s a good possibility that the folks in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have your DNA.

  If so, they probably know more about your health and DNA vulnerabilities than you do. The implications of that are disturbing, to say the least.

  The company contracted to conduct the COVID-19 tests is Fulgent Genetics, a nationwide DNA sequencing and disease testing firm. According to the firm’s website, its stated mission is, “developing flexible and affordable genetic testing that improves the everyday lives of those around us.”

  Apparently, we are to believe that Fulgent Genetics is here to improve all of our lives.

  Deep Ties to China

  On Nov. 29, the Office of the Sheriff of Los Angeles County posted a letter to the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors. That letter stated that the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department would not be participating in the COVID-19 testing with Fulgent Genetics.

  The letter explained that the Federal Bureau of Investigations’ (FBI) Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate had warned Sheriff Alex Villanueva’s office of the risk that DNA samples, from the COVID-19 tests that Fulgent Genetics was to provide, would “likely be shared with the Republic of China.”

  Villanueva also said at a press briefing that “Fulgent had strong ties with BGI, WuXP, and Huawei Technology, all of which are linked to the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, the People’s Republic of China State Council and are under the control of the PRC.”

  Questions Abound

  Several questions come to mind. Who or what is the Fulgent Genetics corporation?

  Why would an American company wish to provide American DNA samples?

  Why on Earth would China even want DNA samples from Americans?

  For what purpose?

  How many American DNA samples do they have already?

  And most importantly, what does our DNA have to do with the FBI’s concern with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) from China?

  The answers to these and other questions on the stuff of dystopian worst-case scenarios are discussed below. But first, some background on Fulgent Genetics.

  Who Is Fulgent Genetics?

  The firm was founded in 2011 by Ming Hsieh, chairman of the board of directors, president, and chief executive officer, and James Xie, chief operating officer. Hsieh has served as a trustee at Fudan University in China since 2011. Xie received his Bachelor’s degree in engineering from Chongqing University in China in 1987. Perhaps not surprisingly, both men have deep ties to China.

  And apparently, Fulgent has been sharing Americans’ DNA from coast to coast with China. As noted in Villanueva’s statement, it’s not the only PLA proxy company engaged in harvesting Americans’ genetic material. There are others as well, and millions upon millions of people’s DNA from America and many other places in the world have been sent to China.

  This is where things get very dark in the weapons of mass destruction department. China wants to create a biowarfare WMD that targets your DNA.

  A New, Dark Era of Biowarfare Is Here

  Biowarfare isn’t a new thing; it has been used throughout history. In the 4th century B.C., Scythian archers infected their arrows by dipping them in decomposed bodies. In the 14th century, the Tartars catapulted plague-infected dead bodies into the lines of their enemies at the siege of Kaffa. And in World War II, the Imperial Japanese Army bombed Chinese cities with plague-laden fleas.

  But these “old school” forms of biowarfare are child’s play compared to the latest DNA-based bioweapons technology that leverages artificial intelligence (AI) and genomics. We are entering a new and very risky era.

  Biowarfare and DNA Manipulation

  Just as AI and genomics enable DNA manipulation to help the human body fight all kinds of diseases, this same technology can also be used to create unique pathogens that only impact specific people. DNA-specific weapons can target a race, a gender, or even a family or individual with a specific DNA structure.

  This isn’t just a possibility—it’s a probability, if not already a reality. What’s more, at least in theory, there’s no blowback to DNA-specific bioweapons because they harm only people with specified DNA characteristics. China’s access to Americans’ DNA is unquestionably a national security concern.

  US Versus China in ‘Death Race 2035’

  Some estimates say that the winner(s) of the bioweapon arms race will be determined by the year 2035. It may well be much sooner. In the race to create highly effective, targetable, and lethal biological weapons, the United States and China are neck and neck. Both nations have invested big money in AI and genomics. Each wants to take the lead in creating these super DNA-based bioweapons.

  Like all arms races, whichever nation develops the ability to launch a biological attack without fear of blowback will be in the power position. Not a happy picture, but it’s reality.

  But just being able to launch a deadly, highly targeted or even WMD bio attack isn’t enough. The survival of a nation also depends on its ability to defend against one. Like nuclear retaliation strategy (second strike capability) is meant to deter a first strike, a nation’s biowarfare retaliation ability may be a critical factor in deterring such attacks.

  Unfortunately, AI and genomics make creating potentially thousands of genetically-modified lethal pathogens easy. On the flip side, immunizing whole populations, or even a small number of people, against thousands of newly-created pathogens is impossible; at least at this moment.

  Biowarfare Technology Goes Viral

  Predictably, the rapid spread of information itself is a problem. The internet has made it impossible to contain most secrets. If a technology exists, for the right price, it will be made available to the bad guys. Or, in the case of the PLA and Chinese scientific community, it will be developed and—if current experience with the CCP virus is an indicator—deployed in full.

  This reality does not bode well for limiting the access and use of a new and dangerous bioweapons by China, or any other adversaries of the United States. If Fulgent and others are helping China develop DNA-targeted pathogens against Americans, there are no easy answers to such a threat, nor are there any good ones. But seizing all materials, data, and assets, and prosecuting such firms would be a start.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 23:00

• Yet Another News Crew Just Got Robbed At Gunpoint In Oakland
  Yet Another News Crew Just Got Robbed At Gunpoint In Oakland

  An NBC Sports crew working on assignment in Oakland, Calif., was robbed at gunpoint Saturday morning, according to a report from The Mercury News.

  The crew was on assignment in the Jack London Square area when three armed individuals took a camera from inside the crew’s vehicle, according to Oakland Police Department spokesperson Kim Armstead.

  None of the crew members were holding the camera at the time and there were no injuries.

  

  The robbery marks the third incident involving news organizations in Oakland in the last two-and-a-half weeks.

  On Dec. 3, a San Francisco Chronicle photographer was robbed at gunpoint in West Oakland.

  And on Nov. 24, Kevin Nishita – a security guard and former police officer – was fatally shot during an attempted robbery downtown while he was with a KRON-TV Channel 4 news crew.

  

  As The Hill reports, Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf (D) said two weeks ago that her office was drafting a proposal to place before the City Council to increase active police presence and require a larger police force. Schaaf also wants to establish a new police academy class. 

  “We in Oakland believe in a comprehensive and effective approach to ending gun violence,” Schaaf said late last month. 

  The spike in crimes is taking place at a time when the police department’s force has fallen to 677 officers, which is reportedly the city’s lowest police staffing level in more than a decade.

  So, “Refund The Police” Libby?

  Of course, we are sure the armed thieves were just looking for bread… and were otherwise ‘mostly peaceful’ that day.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 22:40

• Peter Schiff: The Mainstream Is Sugar-Coating Inflation
  Peter Schiff: The Mainstream Is Sugar-Coating Inflation

  Via SchiffGold.com,

  The CPI data for November came in pretty close to expectations. Of course, expectations were sky-high as the transitory inflation narrative has faded into myth.

  

  The CPI surged another 0.8% month-on-month in November. The consensus expectation was for a 0.7% rise. The headline year-on-year increase was 6.8%. That was right in line with expectations. It was also the highest CPI print since 1982. And as Peter Schiff talked about on his podcast, the CPI number understates the inflation problem.

  The November rise came on the heels of a sizzling hot 0.9% CPI in October. This was the biggest back-to-back CPI rise of the year.

  Clearly, the gains we are seeing were not transitory if we’re at the end of the year and we’re seeing even bigger back-to-back increases in monthly consumer prices than at any point during the year.”

  The total CPI gain for 2021 now stands at 7.1% with one month left to go.

  • January – 0.3%

  • February. – 0.4%

  • March – 0.6%

  • April – 0.8%

  • May – 0.6%

  • June – 0.9%

  • July. – 0.5%

  • August 0.3%

  • September – 0.4%

  • October – 0.9%

  • November – 0.8%

  Core inflation, excluding food and energy (as if consumers don’t have to eat or put gas in their car) rose 0.5%. The year-over-year core CPI was up 4.9%.

  Peter said we need to remember that the Fed is still talking about inflation “slightly” above 2%.

  We are miles above 2%. And there’s no way we’re going anywhere near 2% again.”

  Peter brought up another important point. The inflation comparison between, 1982 and today is apples to oranges, and it is irrelevant.

  The mainstream media and government officials like to compare today’s CPI numbers to the double-digit inflation of the 1970s.

  They want to point to the higher numbers of the 1970s to remind us that it’s really not that bad, because after all, it’s nothing like the 1970s. Except it’s exactly like the 1970s — only worse.”

  According to the government numbers, the CPI in 1970 rose 5.8%. In 1971, CPI was up 4.3%. The 1972 CPI increased by 3.3%. The 1973 CPI increase was 6.2%.

  So, we’re already worse than the first four years of the 1970s. So, how is this not like the 1970s when we’re starting off this decade worse than we were starting off the 1970s?”

  Inflation hit double digits in 1974 with an 11.1% CPI.

  But you know what? That’s actually where we are. In fact, we’re higher than that right now. And that is because the CPI that we use today — and I’ve said this many times on the podcast — is not the same CPI that we were using in the 1970s. And that makes comparisons completely irrelevant.”

  Back in 1998, the government significantly revised the CPI metrics. Even the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) admitted the changes were “sweeping.”

  According to the BLS, periodic changes to the CPI calculation are necessary because “consumers change their preferences or new products and services emerge. During these occasions, the Bureau reexamines the CPI item structure, which is the classification scheme of the CPI market basket. The item structure is a central feature of the CPI program and many CPI processes depend on it.”

  In 1998, the BLS followed the recommendations of the Boskin Commission. It was appointed by the Senate in 1995. Initially called the “Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index,” its job was to study possible bias in the computation of the CPI. Unsurprisingly, it determined that the index overstated inflation — by about 1.1% per year in 1996 and about 1.3% prior to 1996. The 1998 changes to CPI were meant to address this “issue.”

  It serves the government’s agenda to make these false comparisons so they can claim that the inflation we have now isn’t as bad as it was in the 1970s, even though it’s already worse. If you measured inflation now the way it was measured in the 1970s, I think 2021 would be worse than any single year of the 1970s.”

  The peak of 1970s inflation came between 1979 and 1981 with annual CPI increases of 11.3% (1979), 13.5% (1980) and 10.3% (1981). That’s when Paul Volker “went medieval and raised interest rates to 20% in order to kill the inflation dragon.

  The reality is we are already at an inflation rate as bad as it was at the high point of the 1980s, and the Fed is doing nothing but pouring gasoline on the fire.”

  Peter said he thinks if the government measured CPI under the old formula, CPI would clock in around 15%. ShadowStats comes up with a similar CPI estimate using 1980-based numbers.

  In a nutshell, inflation as bad as the CPI numbers are, inflation is being sugar-coated.

  As bad as it is, it’s actually so much worse if the numbers were honest.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 22:20

• Former Lehman Trader's $4BN Hedge Fund Books First Loss In A Decade On China Carnage
  Former Lehman Trader’s $4BN Hedge Fund Books First Loss In A Decade On China Carnage

  For the first time in its nearly decade-long history, BFAM Partners, a hedge fund firm with more than $4 billion under management, is on track to report its first annual loss largely thanks to the implosion of Evergrande.

  According to Bloomberg, the BFAM Asian Opportunities Fund has lost more than 10% in the first 11 months of the year, dropping about 7.5% in October and another 3.3% in November.

  Katarina Royds, who leads investor relations at BFAM, declined to comment. However, Bloomberg’s inside sources revealed that the Asian Opportunities Fund suffered from selling pressure in Chinese real estate bonds. The firm was founded by former Lehman Brothers trader Benjamin Fuchs, but its credit strategies, including high-grade, high-yield, credit default swaps and special situations, are led by Eugene Fung.

  Of course, one might expect a former Lehmanite to be somewhat more sensitive to ructions in overleveraged property markets.

  

  The Hong Kong-based hedge fund firm had $4.9 billion AUM as of August, according to a fund document obtained by BBG.

  The exact details of BFAM’s Chinese credit holdings aren’t known, but a gauge of junk bonds issued by Chinese property developers plunged 21% in October and another 4.9% in November. BFAM has faced similar setbacks in the past. The firm’s Asian high yield-focused credit investments helped the firm chalk up a 17% loss during the month of March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic. However, the firm largely held on to its assets, and a price rebound later in the year helped it to an 8.5% annual gain.

  Of course, it’s not just Chinese credit that has blown up in investors’ faces this year. As US stocks trade near all-time highs, Chinese ADRs continue to struggle. Firms like Didi (the Chinese answer to Uber that was rug-pulled by the CCP just days after its US IPO) and Alibaba (which has seen its shares continue to struggle) are well off their highs, and MSCI’s Golden Dragon Index has been off by double-digits since the fall. 

  Meanwhile, as we have reported, Evergrande and Kaisa Group, two of the most prolific Chinese real estate dollar debt issuers, roiled markets for months before defaulting on debt obligations late last week, as Fitch declared Evergrande to be in “restricted” default. Fears of financial contagion sent the yield investors demand for holding Chinese junk bonds to a record high on Nov. 9, 3x its five-year average, according to a Bloomberg index.

  That hedge funds would want to invest in Chinese real-estate developers is hardly a surprise: as we have reported, the Chinese property market is probably one of the largest asset classes in the world.

  

  Meanwhile, Chinese junk bonds are now yielding 22% as the country’s debt crisis escalates.

  

  According to Bloomberg, the declines in the last couple of months underscore how even the region’s savviest traders have faced challenges navigating the unceasing torrent of regulatory headlines out of China. While the firm has seen some monthly losses, the BFAM fund’s previous winning streak, in calender years, since June 2012 was rare in a region where individual hedge fund performances could be choppy.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 22:00

• California Schools Phase-Out 'D' & 'F' Grades For High School Students
  California Schools Phase-Out ‘D’ & ‘F’ Grades For High School Students

  Authored by Tommy Hung via The Epoch Times,

  As high school students transition out of distance learning imposed by pandemic restrictions, several California districts are dropping the use of “D” and “F” grades in an attempt to reengage students in school and boost entry into the state’s public colleges.

  

  Los Angeles Unified, Oakland Unified, Sacramento City Unified, and San Diego Unified are among the districts phasing out “D” and “F” grades for high school students.

  If students fail a test or don’t finish their homework, they will be given another chance to retake the test or receive an extension on submitting assignments.

  “Our hope is that students begin to see school as a place of learning, where they can take risks and learn from mistakes, instead of a place of compliance,” stated Nidya Baez, assistant principal at Fremont High in Oakland Unified, according to statements obtained by Bay City News.

  “Right now, we have a system where we give a million points for a million pieces of paper that students turn in, without much attention to what they’re actually learning,” Baez said.

  According to Bay City News, if students do not pass the final exam or finish homework by the end of the semester, they would earn an “incomplete.” The news outlet reported that the aim is to encourage the learning of course material without compromising students’ ability to enter the University of California and California State University should students receive a poor grade.

  Advocates of such “competency-based learning” suggest that assessment should be based on what students have learned instead of how they perform in tests.

  The announcement of grading changes come after some public schools in California gave students the option of changing their letter-based grades to pass/fail grades.

  Sam Davis, board director of Oakland Unified School District, told ABC News that the “D” grade should be dropped but students should still be given the appropriate grade if they fail.

  “D grades are not valid for college eligibility at UC and Cal State but obviously if students don’t master the material, they shouldn’t be getting credit for the class, then they would be getting an F,” Davis told ABC in a Dec. 9 interview.

  According to reports obtained from educators, ABC pointed out that many students sitting at a “D” only work enough to avoid getting an “F” grade.

  In an interview with ABC, Alix Gallagher, director of strategic partnerships and policy analysis for California Education, emphasized the importance of “rapid specific feedback” to help students improve.

  Gallagher told Bay City News that grades vary “from teacher to teacher,” and that instruction, rather than grading, is “what leads to learning.”

  In the same report from Bay City News, math and science teacher Debora Rinehart said that “not reporting Ds and Fs is the equivalent of lying about a student’s progress.”

  “I will work with any student before or after school or even on the weekend to help them learn. However, I will never lie about their knowledge level,” Rinehart stated.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 21:40

• Vox Buys Thrillist Publisher Group Nine As Wave Of Media Consolidation Continues
  Vox Buys Thrillist Publisher Group Nine As Wave Of Media Consolidation Continues

  It has already been a pretty busy year for media deals.

  And as digital advertising rates quietly creep higher, Vox Media is responding to rival Buzzfeed’s recent public offering via SPAC by acquiring rival Group Nine, the publisher of Thrillist, NowThis, The Dodo, PopSugar and Seeker.

  

  Vox’s Jim Bankoff

  If the all-stock deal goes through, Vox will own 75% of Group Nine, according to internal memos seen by CNBC and WSJ.

  The deal would leave the combined company a private firm. However, Vox would be free to use a SPAC set up by Group Nine to go public and raise more public and private funds, if need be.

  Vox CEO Jim Bankoff and Group Nine CEO Ben Lerer sent emails to employees after WSJ broke the news on Monday.

  A deal would mark the end of an excruciatingly long series of on-and-off talks with various digital media rivals.

  Group Nine has held on-and-off merger talks with Vox, BuzzFeed and other digital media companies for years, as CNBC reported last week. The name of the game is scale; the more properties and clicks, the better equipped they will be to compete for advertising dollars with Facebook and Google.

  Vox’s Bankoff reportedly told his staffers that the deal isn’t signed but is expected to take place shortly and will close in early 2022. Lerer will take a board seat at Vox. Vox’s publications, which include New York Magazine, the Verge, Eater, Curbed, Vox and SB Nation, will remain intact after the acquisition, according o the memo.

  He added that management has no plans to go public. Still, the SPAC we mentioned above isn’t simply going away. If Vox changes its mind (or finds it needs more runway to burn), the SPAC option remains open and easily accessible.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 21:20

• South Korea To Use Facial Recognition Cameras To Track COVID Cases, Ensure Mask Compliance
  South Korea To Use Facial Recognition Cameras To Track COVID Cases, Ensure Mask Compliance

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  Authorities in South Korea are set to use the country’s facial recognition camera network to track people with COVID in real time and ensure they are wearing face masks.

  

  The system will first be tested in Bucheon, on the outskirts of Seoul, in January before being extended to other areas of the country.

  The scheme uses artificial intelligence and facial recognition software linked to the city’s 10,820 security cameras “to track the movements of active cases and their close contacts, and to determine whether they wore a mask,” reports RT.

  One official said the system was needed to reduce the workload on the team tasked with tracking COVID cases in the city by relying on information such as records of card purchases and cellphone location data.

  “Using facial recognition technology will enable that analysis in an instant,” said Bucheon Mayor Jang Deog-cheon, adding that it reduces the burden on workers having to spend “hours analyzing a single [segment of] CCTV footage.”

  South Korea will soon roll out a pilot project to use artificial intelligence, facial recognition and thousands of CCTV cameras to track the movement of people infected with the coronavirus, despite concerns about the invasion of privacy https://t.co/Q5YoDnyoF4

  — Reuters (@Reuters) December 13, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The system also eliminates the problem of citizens who get infected with COVID but “who aren’t always truthful about their activities and whereabouts,” reported Reuters.

  Park Dae-chul, a lawmaker from the main opposition People Power Party. called the plan a “neo-totalitarian idea.”

  “It is absolutely wrong to monitor and control the public via CCTV using taxpayers’ money and without the consent from the public,” said Park.

  China, India, Japan, Poland, Russia, and multiple US states are also exploring similar ways to keep track of the movements of people infected with COVID.

  Such technology is of course wide open to abuse, erases any kind of expectation of privacy and is something that George Orwell would have laughed off as inconceivable.

  And yet here we are.

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 21:00

• Morgan Stanley Warns The Fed's Turbo Taper Will Trigger Market Chaos Over "The Next 3-4 Months"
  Morgan Stanley Warns The Fed’s Turbo Taper Will Trigger Market Chaos Over “The Next 3-4 Months”

  Until last week, the economic and market views of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley couldn’t be more opposite: the former, delightfully optimistic, expects the US economy to grow on all cylinders in 2022 and despite the Fed’s tightening – two months ago Goldman flipped its Fed views by pulling forward its first rate hike forecast by one year to July, and followed it up over the weekend by predicting that liftoff will begin in May with two more rate hikes to follow in 2022…

  

  … said in its year-ahead market forecast last month that it expects the S&P to hit 5,100 by the end of 2022 even as the economy slows down modestly from its current feverish pace.

  Meanwhile, far less optimistic than their Goldman peers, Morgan Stanley’s economists expected – until late last week – the Fed to stand pat without hiking even once in 2022. That changed over the weekend, however, when the bank admitted “defeat” and now expects two rate hikes in 2022, even as the bank’s chief market economist Michael Wilson sees the S&P closing 2022 at 4,400, some 5% below current levels.

  So while there has been some convergence on the economy and Fed front, a gaping divergence remains when it comes to what the two most influential US banks think the market will do, a schism which only became more acute in the past 24 hours, when on one hand Goldman predicted that a massive year-end Santa Rally is imminent (as we discussed last night), while Morgan Stanley doubled down on its bearish view this morning when in Michael Wilson’s latest strategy outlook piece (available to professional subscribers), he warns that “the Fed’s pivot to a more aggressive tapering schedule poses a larger risk for asset prices than most investors believe.“

  Confirming what we have been saying since 2010 when we first explained that it is not the stock but the flow that matters, and that tapering is tightening, Wilson echoes our decade-old conclusion and writes that “tapering is tightening for markets, if not the economy.” And due to the much greater than expected rise in inflation – now that even Powell has killed and buried “team transitory” – the Fed is pivoting to a more aggressive removal of monetary accommodation.

  Wilson believes this is warranted and supported by an administration that appears less focused on the stock market as a barometer of
  its success (actually since this administration has zero success to “barometer” besides flooding money into the economy and watching inflation skyrocket of course, it simply hasn’t even considered the level of the S&P; it will soon… after the crash).

  Furthermore, the Morgan Stanley strategist believes that tapering is different than in 2014 for 3 reasons:

  1. the Fed is exiting QE twice as fast this time,
  2. asset prices are much richer today and
  3. growth is decelerating rather than accelerating.

  And as we joked earlier (but not really) with the Fed tapering and soon hiking, the outcome will be a recession and a market crash…

  Dear @federalreserve – we all know that your taper/rate hikes will trigger a recession and market crash. Can we just fast forward to NIRP and even more QE that always follow?

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 13, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … Wilson again agrees and says that such an adverse market reaction “could be important for the economy, too, given how levered consumers are to stock prices today.”

  Taking a more nuanced look at Morgan Stanley’s forecast, Wilson explains that when he was writing his (decidedly bearish) year ahead outlook, he was faced with “a wider than normal range of potential economic and policy outcomes.” This higher ” uncertainty” was one of the key inputs to the bank’s conclusion that valuations for US equity markets were likely to come down over the next 3-6 months, and as further notes explains “in our discussions with hundreds of clients since publishing our outlook, the conversations have centered around how to handicap these various outcomes.” Wilson lists the three scenarios as follows:

  • Goldilocks: When we published on November 15, this was the prevailing view by most clients. In this outcome, supply picks up in 1Q to meet the excess demand companies are having a hard time fulfilling. Inflation falls back toward 2-3%, allowing the Fed to move gradually with its taper and hike maybe 1-2 times in 2022, a modest amount of tightening that most believe the economy and markets can handle. Under this scenario, earnings growth is solid (10-15%), interest rates stay well behaved and valuations remain elevated (20-21x Forward EPS). This yields 5-10% upside to the S&P 500 over the next year or roughly 5000. For us, this was the Bull case outcome in our outlook with a 20% probability.
  • Inflation remains hot and the Fed responds more aggressively: Under this outcome, inflation proves to be stickier as supply chains and labor shortages remain difficult to fix in the short term. The Fed is forced to taper faster and even raise rates on a more aggressive path than investors expect. This was our base case as it essentially lined up with our hotter but shorter cycle view we first wrote about back in March. Under this outcome, interest rates continue to rise next year to 2-2.25% by year end. At the same time, operating leverage starts to fade as costs increase more in line with revenues, leaving limited margin upside. This leaves breadth narrow in the near term as valuations come down and P/Es finally normalize in line with the traditional mid cycle transition. While there is some debate around how much P/Es need to fall, we believe 18x is the right number to use for year end 2022 and when combined with 10% revenue growth that gives us slight downside to the index from current prices, or 4400. We put a 60% probability on this outcome.
  • Supply picks up just as demand fades: Under this outcome, supply does improve but it’s too late to meet what has been an unsustainable level of demand and consumption for many goods. It’s also too expensive for customers who have become more wary of high prices, which leads to discounting and a whiff of deflation for many areas of the goods economy. While services should fare better and keep the economy growing, goods producing companies suffer and make up a much larger part of the consumer discretionary part of the stock market. Under this scenario, the Fed may decide to back off on their more aggressive tightening path. Rates fall but not enough to offset the negative impact on margins and earnings which end up disappointing. This is essentially the “Ice” part of our narrative turning out be colder than expected. Equity risk premiums soar and multiples fall even more than under our base case. This was our bear case with a 20% probability.

  Before we drill down into these, a quick detour to Wilson who says that since publishing his year-ahead forecast one month ago, he feels “more confident about our base case being the most likely outcome. Inflation data continues to come in hotter and based on commentary from our analysts, companies seem to be having no problem passing it along to customers, keeping inflation sticky on the upside. While this will likely lead to another good quarter of earnings overall, we suspect there will be more casualties, too, as execution risk is increasing leaving dispersion high and leadership inconsistent — two more conclusions in our outlook.” This means that stock picking, while difficult, will be a necessary condition to generate meaningful returns in 2022 as the market separates the winners and losers and index basically goes nowhere over the next 12 months.

  Meanwhile, and far more ominously, Wilson also warns that “the likelihood of our bear case is growing relative to our bull case. As it stands, we would say Bear case is now 30%, Base case is still 60% while goldilocks looks like a distance 3rd at just 10%.“

  In other words, the odds that the Fed will short circuit its tightening plans are rising.

  * * *

  With that in mind, let’s focus some more on Wilson’s core assumptions, at the top of which is that…

  The change in the Fed’s reaction function is a big deal because Tapering is Tightening

  While Morgan Stanley’s base case has always assumed the Fed would respond appropriately to the higher inflation, “the pivot by Chair Powell at his recent Congressional testimony was more aggressive than what we expected, especially in light of the new Covid variant, which at the time was a known unknown.” We discussed this over the weekend in depth. Here, Wilson concedes that with Omicron now looking like a lower risk to growth than 2 weeks ago, this only raises the probability that the Fed will indeed taper its asset purchases much faster than the last tapering episode in 2014, and Morgan Stanley “economists point out that the Fed is now suggesting stable prices is important to achieving its primary goal of full employment which means inflation has taken center stage, until it’s under control.” In terms of speed, the bank’s forecast is now for the Fed to end its asset purchase program by the end of March, the same as Goldman. However, if the Fed executes on that path, “it will leave a mark on asset prices in our view.“

  Wilson also thinks Jay Powell and the Fed will be under much less pressure from the White House versus the last time they tried to take the punch bowl away in late 2018. Part of this is due to the fact that inflation is a much bigger problem today than it was in 2018 and part of it is due to the observation that this White House is not as preoccupied with the stock market. Wilson’s bottom line: “the Fed put still exists but the strike price is much lower now, in our view. If we had to guess, it’s down 20% rather than down 10% unless credit markets or economic data really start to wobble.”

  Here Wilson encounters the same challenge we have observed over the years, namely that most disagree with the conclusion that tapering is tightening (for markets, if not the economy). As evidence, those who still don’t understand that only the Flow (and not the Stock) matters, point to the tapering in 2014 as an example of how markets traded well as the Fed let the air out of the balloon back then. On that score, Wilson has makes several points to argue “it could be different this time.”

  First, in 2014, it took the Fed 10 months to taper its QE program. This time they will do it in just 4 ½ months, or twice as fast. While M2 has been decelerating this year on a global basis, it’s still running almost 8% y/y (Exhibit 1). In the US, M2 growth is running 13% and explains a lot of why nominal GDP growth is also running about 13% in the fourth quarter. After all, MV=PQ. If the Fed takes QE down to zero, its global M2 growth will slow severely and likely fall below 5% by the end of 1Q. This looks a lot like 2014 and 2018, but at a faster pace. Wilson’s guess is that growth will take a hit at a time when it’s already decelerating and increase the odds of our bear case playing out.

  

  Second, US Equity markets are much richer today and therefore more vulnerable to a swift reduction of liquidity. Specifically, the equity risk premium is 350bps today and was close to 500bps when they started the taper talk in 2013. P/Es were 14.5x versus 20x today. To be sure, rates were higher then but that is why multiples had room to rise from there as rates reflected the more hawkish Fed and inflation that was much lower then. As a result, valuations were able to hold in and even increase during that tapering episode.

  Third, growth is decelerating now while in 2013-14 it was accelerating. In addition to the PMI shown in the exhibit, earnings and economic growth were accelerating whereas both are likely to decelerate in 2021 and even outright decline for many companies, particularly in the first half of the year when the comparisons are most difficult. This, Wilson says, is what will really separate the winners from the losers  and why he is so focused on earnings stability/achievability and valuation “because small beats will likely not be enough to drive stocks higher if they have a premium P/E.”

  

  Morgan Stanley’s bottom line: given that much of the market is expensive relative to history, rather than just a few sectors or names, it suggests to this tapering episode will be different than the last one and is likely to leave the overall market lower than where we are trading today by the end of the first quarter if the Fed goes through with an expedited tapering schedule.

  In short, Powell – who was wrong about inflation being transitory for the past year and only two weeks ago admitted he was dead wrong – is about to trigger a nightmare scenario for market, and will scramble to snuff inflation just as it has already peaked, and just as the global economy is sliding into a fast slowdown.

  * * *

  But wait, there’s more because as Wilson also correctly observes, asset markets have never been more important to consumer health. That’s right: a market crash here and we spiral right into a deep recession, perhaps even worse than the Global Financial Crisis.

  While Morgan Stanley’s base case is that the economy should be able to handle the ending of QE and even some rate hikes next year, the big risk has always been that if asset markets correct more significantly it could have a greater than normal effect on the economy too given how levered the consumer is to the stock market and other asset prices like housing and crypto currencies. When just considering the stock market, it’s easy to see that consumer net worth has increased dramatically as many key assets have risen inexorably over the past 18 months. And while this is a good thing for consumer demand if prices remain elevated, it also dramatically increases the odds that the inverse will be just as painful, and tapering will quickly become tightening for the economy, too, if it leads to a significant asset price deflation.

  Here, Morgan Stanley thinks that “the risk of that is greatest over the next 3-4 months as the Fed exits QE on this faster time table.”

  

  The market has, naturally, been ignoring these risks and one place where this is especially obvious is the collapse in market breadth. Since September, breadth has rarely been this weak relative to the Index level price

  

  As Wilson concludes, “the rolling correction that began last spring continues under the surface, making the index a very bad gauge of the overall health of the stock market, or the economy, in our view.” The good news here is that the average stock has already discounted a good chunk of the risks Morgan Stanley is forecasting “even if the index has not.”

  In this regard, the bank continues to stress that watching the S&P 500 is a bad idea for measuring what the market is really telling us about the fundamentals. It also explains why it’s been so difficult for many active managers to keep up with the benchmark. And while the average stock may begin to outperform as the index catches down, Wilson warns that the absolute direction for most stocks will remain lower until the index has taken its turn on the de-rating process that began over 6 months ago. It’s also why Wilson remains overweight large cap defensive quality for now.

  One final point from the MS strategist: if there is one chart that depicts the risk off nature of the markets under the surface, it’s the MSCI large/mid cap quality index versus the Russell 2000 small cap index.

  

  As Wilson concludes, “making this very simple pivot in March as the rate of change on growth and policy peaked was the more important thing to do this year for performance… We continue to recommend this pair but with a more defensive bias on the quality side rather than growth due to valuation constraints as the Fed accelerates its taper this week.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 20:40

• California Orders Statewide Indoor Mask Mandate
  California Orders Statewide Indoor Mask Mandate

  Authored by Jack Bradley via The Epoch Times,

  California implemented a statewide mask mandate in all indoor public settings regardless of vaccination status beginning Dec. 15.

  

  The mask mandate will remain in place until Jan. 15.

  California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said the mandate comes after a surge in CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus case rates across the state since Thanksgiving.

  “As we look at the evidence that masks do make a difference, even a 10 percent increase in indoor masking can reduce case transmission significantly,” he said.

  [ZH: We would like to see this ‘evidence’, since as far as we know there is none at all anywhere in the world that masks make any difference in transmission.]

  We are now approaching a whole year of California & Texas having nearly identical Covid death rate numbers despite California’s lockdowns & mask mandates and Texas’s re-opening back early March 2021. This chart clearly showcases an inconvenient truth for certain people. pic.twitter.com/OyBpMeoE2a

  — James Melville (@JamesMelville) July 20, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The state will also toughen the restriction for unvaccinated people who attend indoor “mega-events” of 1,000 people or more, requiring them to receive a negative COVID-19 test within one day of the event if it’s a rapid antigen test or within two days for a PCR test. The current rules require a test within 72 hours of the event.

  [ZH: A quick reminder, …almost 90% of at-risk Californians are vaccinated!”

  

  State officials will also recommend, but not require, that people who travel to California or return to the state after traveling be tested for COVID-19 within three to five days.

  The announcement came on the same day New York implemented a statewide mask requirement indoors.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 20:24

• Foreigners Panic-Bought Beaten-Down China Stocks Last Week Amid Easing Bets
  Foreigners Panic-Bought Beaten-Down China Stocks Last Week Amid Easing Bets

  While some are still obsessing over Beijing’s crackdown on Chinese companies and would rather wait for the smoke to settle (i.e., Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood), others are piling into mainland China’s equities at breakneck speeds.

  Bloomberg data shows overseas investors purchased 48.8 billion yuan ($7.7 billion) via trading links with Hong Kong between Dec. 6-10. The record inflows helped boost the country’s main equity benchmark CSI 300 by 3% on the week, the best weekly gain in three months. 

  

  As we noted last week, the buying comes as strategists from Citigroup Inc. and UBS Global Wealth told clients Chinese companies’ American depositary receipts (ADR) corrections were “overdone,” and maybe now is the time to start buying beaten-down names. 

  

  We’ve pointed out in recent weeks that China has begun to ease. On Dec. 6, the PBOC cut the RRR by 50bps, effective on Dec. 15. “The aim of the RRR cut is to strengthen cross-cyclical adjustment, enhance the capital structure of financial institutions, raise financial services capabilities to better support the real economy,” the PBOC said.

  Ahead of the RRR cut, we told readers it was a telegraphed move by Premier Li Keqiang. He said that authorities would cut the RRR at an appropriate time to help smaller companies. The decision comes as Beijing is counteracting growth pressures and stabilizing the economy amid a years-long crackdown across technology companies and the property market. 

  Besides easing on the monetary front, Communist Party’s top leaders said last Friday after a three-day annual Central Economic Work Conference that a priority early next year is “ensuring stability.” This means that fiscal policy will be ramped up to support growth, presumably ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February. 

  “Fiscal policy is expected to play a main role in supporting growth next year,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered Plc, while housing policies will see “fine-tuning” rather than a significant shift, he added.

  Goldman Sachs told clients last week that another RRR cut is slated in the next few months. 

  

  China is in the midst of a policy shift to counteract the downward economic pressure. Foreign investors are already front-running the PBOC and buying Chinese stocks despite a liquidity crisis at developer China Evergrande Group and other real estate firms. It’s a risky gamble to catch a falling knife. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 20:00

• Game-Changer: The FDA Approved Eye Drops That Replace Reading Glasses
  Game-Changer: The FDA Approved Eye Drops That Replace Reading Glasses

  Authored by Joseph Brown via TheMindUnleashed.com,

  The Food and Drug Administration authorized eye drops that may possibly replace reading glasses for millions of people in October, and they entered the market this week.

  “It’s definitely a life changer,” trial participant Toni Wright told CBS. 

  “I would not need my readers as much, especially on the computer, where I would always need to have them on.”

  The drops, known as pilocarpine, and sold by pharma outlet Allergan under the name “Vuity,” might help the 128 million people in the United States who are nearsighted.

  One drop in each eye, according to the business, may enhance closeup eyesight for six to ten hours, according to CBS News.

  

  The drops function by utilizing the eye’s natural capacity to shrink its pupil.

  “Reducing the pupil size expands the depth of field or the depth of focus, and that allows you to focus at different ranges naturally,” George Waring, lead investigator of a clinical trial, told CBS.

  At $80 for a 30-day supply, the drops aren’t cheap, but they’re also not excessively pricey, considering the benefit..

  However, it is not a cure-all, and headaches and burning eyes are two of the most common adverse effects reported. The manufacturer also advises against using the drops at night while driving or when operating machinery.

  Middle-aged adults are the ones who benefit the most from the drops. According to CBS, those over the age of 65 will be less affected by them.

  Millions of people find wearing reading glasses inconvenient, therefore getting rid of them is surely appealing.

  Along with revolutionary technologies like Lasik, humans are continually moving towards a future where problems with eyesight are a thing of the past. Nice.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 19:40

• Watch: Bizarre Moment White House Cut Taiwanese Official's Video Feed Over Map
  Watch: Bizarre Moment White House Cut Taiwanese Official’s Video Feed Over Map

  It’s been revealed that at last week’s Summit for Democracy the Biden administration was so afraid of offending China that it temporarily shut off the video feed of a Taiwanese minister at the moment a map was featured on the screen depicting Taiwan as independent of China.

  Reuters first reported that in this “curious” case – which the White House is now disputing that it had awareness of – the video of Taiwanese Digital Minister Audrey Tang was abruptly pulled after the official showed the controversial map for about a minute on Friday. 

  

  In place of the cut video, there appeared words on the screen that said: “Any opinions expressed by individuals on this panel are those of the individual, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States government.”

  The intervention came despite that China wasn’t even invited to the democracy summit in the first place, and was not represented at the virtual forum. Beijing was further angered that Taiwan was invited, despite not being a globally recognized country, as China claims it as its own.

  The Hill summarized specifics of the map as follows:

  The video was replaced with an audio-only feed at the White House’s request, the news wire reported. The presentation showed a color-coded map that ranked global openness to civil rights. Taiwan was labeled as green, or “open,” while other countries in Asia were marked as “closed,” “repressed,” “obstructed” or “narrowed.

  The Reuters report, based on its sources, indicated the video feed was cut was on deliberate orders from the White House given Tang’s presentation and map were in direct contradiction of the US official “one China” policy, further coming at a sensitive moment for US-China relations, which remain at a historic low point.

  Watch what every nation’s officials logged into the summit saw, as the moderator quickly clamped down on Tang’s presentation, trying to explain it away as part of the summit’s “diversity” of opinions:

  Irony @ The Summit for Democracy 12/10

  1. Taiwan minister’s map shows Taiwan separate from China
  2. Video feed is cut when it comes back to her
  3. “Any opinions expressed by individuals on this panel are those of the individual, and do not necessarily reflect the views US gov’t” pic.twitter.com/WYwSGhzFQ4

  — Peznt Journalist (@PezntJournalist) December 13, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The State Department, however, is claiming it was an “honest mistake” due to “confusion” and that the video feed was not supposed to have been cut off for any length of time.

  However, emails also seen by Reuters directly contradict the administration’s rebuttal, as NY Post summarizes:

  According to Reuters, Tang’s map sparked a flurry of emails between US officials, and the National Security Council reached out to the State Department to complain that the slide had not been included in “dry-run” versions of the presentation before the summit.

  “They choked,” one source told Reuters of the White House reaction.

  “It was clearly policy concerns,” a second source told Reuters, adding: “This was completely an internal overreaction.”

  Ironically this act of “internal overreaction” which literally led to aggressive on-the-spot censorship of the Taiwan official’s speech, was done at Biden’s democracy summit which has been billed as an attempt to “tackle the greatest threats faced by democracies today through collective action.” Though clearly Taiwan’s delegation experienced something very different.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 19:20

• Border Patrol Agents Forced To Undergo Woke Re-Education Training Amid Massive Immigration Crisis; Report
  Border Patrol Agents Forced To Undergo Woke Re-Education Training Amid Massive Immigration Crisis; Report

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  While the United States faces the greatest immigration crisis in its history, the department of Customs and Border Protection is forcing Border Patrol agents and other staff to undergo “unconscious bias” training, according to reports.

  

  The Washington Free Beacon reports that agents are today being educated on “the impact of stereotypes and unconscious biases” in a seminar hosted by Susan Fleming, who is described as an “expert in gender bias”.

  The report further notes that the seminar “will draw on academic research, business experience, and unique perspectives to explore the complex web of beliefs and biases that influence our interactions with colleagues, as well as discussing strategies for individuals and organizations to start overcoming unconscious biases.”

  In other words, its some woke bullshit re-education camp.

  Speaking to the Beacon, an anonymous Department of Homeland Security official commented “CBP doesn’t have the people to properly patrol our nation’s borders but we do have the time to step away from work hours to have a conversation on ‘unconscious bias.’”

  Earlier this year, the conduct of border patrol agents came into focus when the media and the Biden administration hyped up hysteria over photos appearing to show Haitian migrants being whipped by agents with horse reigns.

  Cursory inspection of the incident proved that was total bunk, but the White House Press Secretary later stated that it didn’t matter, and there still needs to be investigation and reform.

  In October, the former chief of the Border Patrol Rodney Scott warned that an unprecedented number of illegal immigrants are being allowed to pour over the border, with over 90% remaining undocumented.

  Scott also outlined that the Biden administration is still paying contractors who were supposed to build the border wall up to $5 million per day even though all construction has been halted.

  On the surge of illegals at the border, Scott said the Biden administration is purposefully “choosing not to take simple, common-sense steps to secure the border.”

  “I personally participated in some of the transition meetings; my staff participated in all of the transition meetings; we made it very clear that if we dropped all the initiatives that had been put in place over the last several years that we would get an influx of mass migration that we would not be able to control,” he further proclaimed.

  “The result of that is the message goes out, and then instead of having a couple hundred encounters a day, we quickly went up to about 6,000 encounters a day,” Scott urged.

  WATCH:

  Border patrol agents are also facing re-education training regarding vaccine mandates, with CBP’s own internal documents showing that up to half of its force face being fired for refusing the shots.

  Former chief operating officer of CBP Mark Morgan, who obtained the internal report, told Fox News that Biden’s vaccine mandate is “going to take an agency that’s already gone through an unbelievable catastrophic crisis on the southwest border and deplete its resources further.”

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 19:00

• Hospitals Dropping Vax Mandate Due To Labor Shortages, Court Order
  Hospitals Dropping Vax Mandate Due To Labor Shortages, Court Order

  On Sunday we noted that hospitals in four states have called in the National Guard to help alleviate a severe healthcare worker shortage caused by mass firings of those who refuse to comply with vaccine mandates.

  

  Now, the Wall Street Journal reports that some of the largest US hospital systems have dropped vaccine mandates for workers amid soaring labor costs and struggles retaining enough nurses, technicians, ‘and even janitors’ to handle higher hospitalization rates due to the Delta variant.

  According to hospital execs, public health authorities and nursing groups, pre-pandemic shortages of workers, including nurses, have been compounded by burnout, as well as the lucrative lure of nurses who work on short-term contracts in Covid hot spots.

  More recently, thousands of nurses have left the industry or lost their jobs rather than get vaccinated. As of September, 30% of workers at more than 2,000 hospitals across the country surveyed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were unvaccinated.

  “It’s been a mass exodus, and a lot of people in the healthcare industry are willing to go and shop around,” according to employment attorney Wade Symons, head of Mercer’s US regulatory practice. “If you get certain healthcare facilities that don’t require it, those could be a magnet for those people who don’t want the vaccine. They’ll probably have an easier time attracting labor.”

  In November, a federal judge in Louisiana ruled that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services didn’t have the authority to force healthcare workers to take the jab – blocking a Biden admin rule which would have applied to some 10 million workers and would have required all employees at facilities participating in Medicare / Medicaid take the jab by Jan. 4.

  “I don’t think the mandates were helpful and I think the court in Louisiana did everyone a service,” said Ballad Health CEO Alan Levine, who oversees the administration of 21 hospitals in Tennessee and Virginia.

  Mr. Levine said his company has about 14,000 employees, some 2,000 of whom are unvaccinated or didn’t request an exemption to the requirement. “That many people having to be terminated would have been devastating to our system,” Mr. Levine said. -WSJ

  Meanwhile, one of the country’s largest healthcare providers, HCA, suspended their previous deadline of Jan. 4 for all workers following the court halt.

  “We continue to strongly encourage our colleagues to be vaccinated as a critical step to protect individuals from the virus,” said spokesman Harlow Sumerford, who added that a majority of their roughly 275,000 workers were fully vaccinated.

  Tenet and AdventHealth also announced that they were waiving the requirement following the court decision, while the Cleveland Clinic – which runs 19 hospitals in Ohio and Florida and employees roughly 65,000 people, along with Utah hospital giant Intermountain Healthcare, said they would similarly suspend the vax requirement.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 18:40

• Female UPenn Swimmers Demoralized: "No Matter How Much Work They Put In, They're Going To Lose"
  Female UPenn Swimmers Demoralized: “No Matter How Much Work They Put In, They’re Going To Lose”

  Authored by Jennifer Kabbany via TheCollegeFix.com,

  Two female University of Pennsylvania swimmers have recently voiced their frustrations to OutKick regarding their teammate, transgender Penn swimmer Lia Thomas, who is smashing collegiate records previously set by biological females in the sport.

  

  Thomas has brought teammates to tears and created a sense of hopelessness among the female athletes, reports Outkick, which interviewed the students anonymously as campus brass has urged them not to talk to media:

  The second Penn swimmer to come forward was at the University of Akron Zippy Invitational where she watched Lia Thomas beat fellow teammate Anna Kalandadze by 38 seconds in the 1650 freestyle. OutKick’s source described Penn swimmers on the Akron pool deck as upset and crying, knowing they were going to be demolished by Thomas.

  “They feel so discouraged because no matter how much work they put in it, they’re going to lose. Usually, they can get behind the blocks and know they out-trained all their competitors and they’re going to win and give it all they’ve got,” the source said.

  “Now they’re having to go behind the blocks knowing no matter what, they do not have the chance to win. I think that it’s really getting to everyone.”

  According to Outkick, Thomas bragged on the sidelines at Akron about being number one in the nation.

  “That was so easy, I was cruising,” Thomas allegedly said after one race. After another race, Thomas was allegedly unhappy with his time but said “At least I’m still No. 1 in the country.”

  

  Another female swim teammate told Outkick that “Pretty much everyone individually has spoken to our coaches about not liking this. Our coach [Mike Schnur] just really likes winning. He’s like most coaches. I think secretly everyone just knows it’s the wrong thing to do.”

  According to NCAA’s policy, biological males who identify as female can compete on women’s sports teams after one year of testosterone suppression treatment.

  Thomas previously swam on the Ivy League university’s men’s team for three years and transitioned during the COVID year off.

  “For Thomas’ first two seasons at Penn, she competed on the men’s team, most recently in November 2019, where she also achieved great success. She qualified for the Ivy League Championships in the 500 free, 1000 free, and 1650 free in her 2018 and 2019 seasons, finishing second overall in each event in 2019,” the Daily Pennsylvanian campus newspaper reports.

  Thomas is now smashing women’s swim time records. In one race at Akron, Thomas beat biological female competitors by 38 seconds.

  An editorial by John Lohn, Swimming World Magazine’s editor-in-Chief, urges the NCAA to not allow Thomas to compete at its March 2022 championships, calling it an “unfair setting.”

  “Athletes transitioning from male to female possess the inherent advantage of years of testosterone production and muscle-building. There is also the advantage (in many cases) of larger body frames, hands and feet,” Lohn wrote.

  “All of these traits are beneficial in the sport of swimming. In the case of Thomas, she had nearly 20 years of this testosterone-building advantage, something cisgender women could not attain. Although she took part in the testosterone-suppression process, a look at her performances clearly reflects that she is benefitting from the genetics of her birth sex.”

  “Well, obviously she’s No. 1 in the country because she’s at a clear physical advantage after having gone through male puberty and getting to train with testosterone for years,” OutKick’s source said.

  “Of course you’re No. 1 in the country when you’re beating a bunch of females. That’s not something to brag about.”

  A team source who was at Wednesday’s meeting says the administration drew a line in the sand and announced that Thomas wasn’t going anywhere and it was non-negotiable. That leaves disgusted teammates no choice but to either stay quiet or speak up against the wishes of the school and risk repercussions.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 18:20

• Hillary Warns 'End Of Democracy' If Trump Wins In 2024; MSNBC Gets Even More Dramatic With Biden Overthrow
  Hillary Warns ‘End Of Democracy’ If Trump Wins In 2024; MSNBC Gets Even More Dramatic With Biden Overthrow

  In today’s episode of ‘divide and be afraid,’ dramatic Democrats are sounding the alarm over ‘the end of Democracy as we know it’ if Trump wins again in 2024, and ’30 million Republicans’ who are apparently ready to launch a coup to remove Joe Biden.

  

  Both claims are, of course, evidence-free.

  During an appearance on The Today Show, twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton warned that Trump winning the 2024 election would signal the end of America’s 244-year experiment in democracy.

  “If I were a betting person right now, I’d say Trump is going to run again. He seems to be setting himself up to do that, and if he’s not held accountable, then he gets to do it again. I think that could be the end of our democracy. Not to be too pointed about it, but I want people to understand that this is a make-or-break point. If he or someone of his ilk were once again to be elected president, and if especially if he had a Congress that would do his bidding, you will not recognize our country,” she said, adding “I tried to warn people. I tried to make the case that this was really dangerous — the people he was allied with, what they were saying, what he might do. I do think, but for Jim Comey and the stunt he pulled 10 days before the election against me, I would have won. I feel terrible about not stopping him and the people around him, but I feel like now everybody can see for themselves what kind of leader he is.”

  “Clearly, there were people who liked what they saw, despite what I see as the real dangers to our country. They turned out and voted for him. And he’s trying to get it set up so that will happen again for him.”

  (h/t citizenfreepress)

  Meanwhile, MSNBC national affairs analyst John Heilemann thinks that “20 to 30 million people” are ready to “take up arms” to remove President Biden from office – telling “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd: “There is this research that shows something like 8% and maybe up to 12% who say that Joe Biden was illegitimate and that violence is a suitable tool to remove him and restore Donald Trump. This represents between 20 and 30 million people,” Heilemann said, claiming these supposed “20 to 30 million people” are ready to “take up arms.”

  The insurrectiony Trump supporters are a “mass movement in favor of political violence,” apparently.

  WATCH: The Donald Trump coup in 2024? @jheil lays out the extraordinary realities of the mass movement in America.

  “This is 30 million people right now who are ready to take up arms” to restoring Donald Trump in office. “That’s not hyperbolic at all. Those are all facts.” pic.twitter.com/Qc4kZRXnVs

  — Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) December 12, 2021

  The panel was discussing a recent article in The Atlantic by Barton Gellman which argued that Trump’s “coup” will “rely on subversion more than violence.” 

  It suggests that the January 6th Capitol riot was “practice” – which Gelman suggested could lead to a 2024 election that isn’t decided by votes, but force.

  Dun dun dun….

  @bartongellman Funny coming from a crew that spent 4-5 years destroying trust in the 2016 election process and excusing away lefty street violence by ANTIFA/BLM-related people.

  cc @pnjaban @chucktodd

  — Yossi Gestetner (@YossiGestetner) December 12, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 18:00

• San Francisco Drug Overdose Deaths Nearly Triple COVID
  San Francisco Drug Overdose Deaths Nearly Triple COVID

  Authored by Ilene Eng via The Epoch Times,

  San Francisco continues to face a drug overdose epidemic. The number of overdose deaths nearly tripled that of COVID deaths in 2020.

  

  The city’s data reveals there were a total of 713 overdose deaths, compared to 261 COVID-19 deaths in 2020.

  “Bad is an understatement. I would say it’s horrific, it is negligent, it is an epidemic in and of itself, and it was not always this way,” Jenny Shao, a freelance multimedia video journalist and San Francisco native, told NTD Television.

  She says drug overdoses have been an ongoing crisis for the city but have gotten much worse over the last five years.

  “Before, you were able to walk through the streets … and you did not have to try and tiptoe over bodies not knowing whether they were dead or alive.” Shao said.

  Shao continued, “And, also, you did not have to hopscotch through anything like drug paraphernalia … and you were not literally walking through a scene, of say, ‘The Night of the Living Dead,’” Shao said.

  One drug addict’s mother has described it as a “Zombie Apocalypse.” Her 32-year-old son is addicted to fentanyl, which has left him homeless and physically “bent over” so that he “walks like an old man.”

  People have also described the city as a Third-World country with human waste and needles on the street. City officials have made efforts to tackle the problem.

  According to one report from the Department of Public Health, San Francisco distributes 4.45 million needles every year to drug users.

  In July, San Francisco Mayor London Breed announced the city will invest $13.2 million to prevent drug overdoses. It includes opening centers to provide beds and treatment for the intoxicated and expanding access to buprenorphine, an opioid used to treat opioid-use disorder.

  Recently, city officials are pushing for safe injection sites as part of their overdose prevention program, which could start as soon as next spring.

  But according to Shao, not a single center offered alternatives to drugs. She said that’s like putting a Band-Aid on the problem and “fast-tracking a way to self-destruction.”

  “The idea is sobriety, and that’s the golden key,” Shao said.

  “You do not want to be dependent on these drugs. And from what I understand of these harm-reduction sites—as the city likes to call them—is that you are putting yourself at less risk, of say, overdose or harm. But, nevertheless, you are still locked in that state of constantly abusing yourself. And, so to speak, teetering on the border of death.”

  Shao says the city needs to invest in more mental health programs.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 12/13/2021 – 17:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Why The Russiagate Scandal Outranks The Rest
  Why The Russiagate Scandal Outranks The Rest

  Authored by J.Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics.com,

  Russiagate is the biggest scandal in American history.

  

  Nothing comes close in size, scope or harm to the republic than the years-long effort to cripple Donald Trump’s presidency by claiming he conspired with an enemy state to steal the 2016 election and then do its bidding as commander-in-chief.

  Its notorious predecessors – L’Affaire Lewinsky, Iran-Contra, Watergate, Teapot Dome, Crédit Mobilier, the XYZ Affair – involved relatively small numbers of malefactors engaged in specific acts of illegality and corruption (we still don’t know who, if anyone, planned the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol)

  Russiagate, by contrast, is a vast conspiracy involving innumerable powerful forces, including the Democratic Party, NeverTrump Republicans, the Obama administration, the FBI, Department of Justice and the nation’s most prestigious news outlets.

  Where previous scandals often ended with public accountability for the perpetrators – Watergate saw the imprisonment of top White House aides and President Nixon’s resignation – and public reforms, Russiagate has produced no such reckoning.

  Russiagate began with a kernel of truth: Someone – probably Russians, though we still don’t know for sure – hacked the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton’s private server. Fearful of what might be released, the Clinton campaign tried to discredit any damaging material by raising dark questions about its source. (Joe Biden executed this same strategy to great effect when he falsely described the evidence of corruption found on his son Hunter’s laptop as “Russian disinformation.”)

  In response, the Clinton campaign financed an absurd collection of conspiracy theories involving peeing prostitutes and billion-dollar bribes, the so-called Steele dossier. Its importance cannot be overstated – it was the dossier that linked the Trump campaign to the hacking. No dossier, no collusion theory.

  During the summer and fall of 2016, Hillary’s henchmen fed this preposterous concoction to Obama administration officials in the DOJ, FBI, CIA and State Department. Everyone knew it was a political operation: Declassified notes showed that then-CIA Director John Brennan briefed President Obama in July 2016 that Clinton planned to tie Trump to Russia as “a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server.”

  Clinton staffers – including Jake Sullivan, who now serves as Biden’s national security adviser – tried to interest the mainstream press in its scurrilous accusations, but got little traction because they could not be verified. Instead of laughing it all off as transparent campaign mud-slinging, however, the FBI joined the conspiracy. The bureau took the extreme step of opening a counter-intelligence probe into an ongoing presidential campaign – and its agents perjured themselves to obtain wire-tapping warrants.

  Days after the November election, Hillary’s campaign focused on “Russian interference” as a chief reason for her defeat. On Jan. 5, 2017, President Obama, Vice President Biden and other key leaders met with FBI Director James Comey in the Oval Office to discuss Russia-related matters. We do not know what was discussed in that meeting, but the next day, Comey briefed President-elect Trump on some allegations in the Steele dossier. Four days later, on Jan. 10, CNN used that briefing as a news hook to report the collusion conspiracy theories as high-drama news.

  Over the next few months and years, current and former officials illegally fed misleading classified material and partisan anonymous quotes to the New York Times, Washington Post, NBC News and other sympathetic press outlets to advance the narrative. Brennan and former National Director of Intelligence James Clapper became a constant presence on cable news, using the top-secret authority of their previous positions to assure the public that collusion was real – although in sworn testimony, Clapper admitted he had not seen such evidence.

  Congressional Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Adam Schiff – who falsely claimed to have seen “more than circumstantial evidence” of Trump/Russia collusion – amplified the smears.

  The appointment of Special Counsel Robert Mueller to investigate the fantasy in May 2017 fueled the fire. His effort became part of the scheme: He only looked for evidence that might implicate Trump, ignoring questions about who cooked up the conspiracy theory, how they disseminated it throughout the government and media, and the laws they might have broken in the process.

  Despite his best effort, Mueller said he’d found no evidence of collusion when he released his report in April 2019. That should have killed the conspiracy theory and – following the script of previous major scandals – sparked a period of reflection by the government, the media and the American people that asked: How did we get this so wrong?

  Such a broad reckoning has not yet happened. DoJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s 2020 report detailing grave abuses in the FBI’s handling of the matter prompted little outcry and no sweeping reform. The recent indictments of Clinton-connected actors filed by Special Counsel John Durham – who is finally doing the work Mueller should have, exposing the malfeasance that actually transpired during the 2016 campaign – have, bizarrely, led partisans to minimize his findings and actually double-down on the debunked collusion narrative. Recent pieces in The Atlantic and New York Times, for example, suggest, without evidence, that “Mueller never definitively got to the bottom of what happened.”

  As Aaron Maté recently reported for RealClearInvestigations, many news organizations have refused to correct documented errors in Trump/Russia coverage, including deeply flawed articles that were awarded a Pulitzer Prize.

  Leading peddlers of the hoax – including Brennan, Clapper, Pelosi, Schiff and Sullivan – have paid no price for their actions. To date, no one has conducted probing interviews with Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama about their roles in the scandal.

  Engineered by broad swaths of the government and media, the effort to paint a sitting president as a foreign agent alone makes Russiagate the worst scandal in American history. But it is this second, still ongoing  phase – this willful effort to deny  what happened, this refusal to hold the  perpetrators accountable – that presents the most serious danger to our nation.

  If truth and justice don’t matter, what does?

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 23:30

• Visualizing The History Of Cannabis Prohibition In The US
  Visualizing The History Of Cannabis Prohibition In The US

  The legal status of cannabis in the U.S. isn’t always clear. At the federal level, it is an illegal Schedule I drug. However, individual states have the ability to determine their own laws around cannabis sales and usage.

  But, as Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop details below, cannabis was not always illegal at the top level. It was only in the last 100 years that cannabis faced a prohibition similar to the alcohol prohibition of the early 1920s.

  In this infographic from Tenacious Labs, we explore the fascinating history of cannabis prohibition in the U.S. dating all the way back to the 1900s.

  

  The Early History of Cannabis Legality

  The earliest laws surrounding the cannabis plant in the U.S. were drafted before the country was even founded. In 1619, a law was passed in the colony of Virginia which required every single farm to grow cannabis and produce hemp, an important commodity at the time.

  Over time, marijuana from the cannabis plant started to be used for medicinal purposes. Early recreational use was first introduced by Mexican immigrants in the early 1900s.

  Flash forward to the 1930s, when the country was struggling financially during the Great Depression. To encourage economic growth, alcohol prohibition was lifted, and those who had supported teetotalling began to target marijuana instead. At the time, cannabis was consumed largely in black and Mexican communities, and racist attitudes began to shape an association between crime, lewd behavior, immorality, and marijuana.

  Legal Changes

  The 1930s marked the beginning of America’s war against marijuana. Here’s a glance at some of the most famous laws around cannabis prohibition:

  • The Marihuana Tax Act (1937)

  • The Boggs Act (1952)

  • The Narcotics Control Act (1956)

  • The Controlled Substances Act (1971)

  In 1937, the Marihuana Tax Act was enforced, prohibiting marijuana federally but still allowing medical use. Prior to that, 29 states had already outlawed marijuana on their own.

  But by the 1950s, a counterculture movement had begun, with young people using marijuana recreationally much more than previous generations.

  Eventually, the Boggs Act (1952) and Narcotics Control Act (1956) were put in place to combat the counterculture. These laws set mandatory sentences for drug-related offenses, including marijuana. A first-offense marijuana possession conviction could result in a minimum sentence of 2-10 years with a fine of up to $20,000.

  In 1970, cannabis was classified as a Schedule I drug—the same category as heroin—under the Controlled Substances Act. However, the 70s also saw an opposing shift, with a number of states beginning to decriminalize marijuana.

   Decriminalization means that although possessing marijuana remains illegal, one is not subject to prosecution or jail time for possessing certain amounts.

  After decriminalization, commercial businesses began to capitalize and started to market marijuana-related products. Some products were marketed towards children, which, in tandem with the intensive hippie culture from the 70s, sparked a war against marijuana led by parents and supported by president Ronald Reagan.

  The Modern Era

  During the 1990s, five states passed laws to allow the medical usage of marijuana—between 2010 and 2020, 16 states passed medical marijuana laws.

  In 2021, a total of 18 states have fully legalized cannabis, while another 26 have allowed marijuana usage for medicinal purposes in some capacity. Furthermore, the MORE Act—a bill to legalize marijuana federally—was reintroduced in the House of Representatives in May 2021.

  If passed, the MORE Act (the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement Act) would essentially remove cannabis from its classification as a Schedule I drug under the Controlled Substances Act. It would also work towards the expungement of criminals who were charged with crimes related to marijuana.

  While the U.S. government has gone back and forth with cannabis legalization over the years, it appears that in the 21st century, the path only leads one way: towards federal legalization.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 23:00

• China's Banking Assets Are $52 Trillion, Growing By $40 Trillion Since 2008: "This Is What Hyper MMT Looks Like"
  China’s Banking Assets Are $52 Trillion, Growing By $40 Trillion Since 2008: “This Is What Hyper MMT Looks Like”

  By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

  Thermodynamics

  “The interaction of inflation-focused monetary policies in the west and China’s mercantilist model created what I call The Refrigeration Mode,” said the CIO, sitting atop his prodigious pile. “The process has been ongoing for twenty years,” he continued. “The inflation-focused policy framework is based on the fallacy that you can model an economy using an equilibrium framework,” he said. “Wicksell was the father of classical equilibrium in economics. He observed that for a pure credit economy – with no external gold backing for money, just credit-backed deposits – there were no clear forces that would drive the system toward equilibrium. To the 19th century Wicksell, a pure credit economy was a fictitious, futuristic concept, but it is effectively what we have today – and it is a path dependent system.”

  “What is a path dependent system?” asked the CIO, not waiting for my answer. “Take the male driver when lost. Despite all evidence around him, the male believes he is not lost. He is, of course. And yet has no need for a map. The male is merely taking a different route, maybe a better a route to the same inevitable, incorrect destination. That destination being equilibrium. It’s all taking place in the male’s head. The reality on the road, meanwhile, is rather different. He turned left at the fork in the road when he should have gone right. There is, now, no natural force – other than blind luck and a tactful passenger – which can rescue him. Further wrong turns, and his destiny await. His destination is path dependent.”

  “So now consider a simplified schematic,” said the CIO. “The economy receives a positive supply shock which lowers inflation and allows rates to fall. This brings forward consumption. Consumers borrow and spend. Asset prices go up. Financiers get excited. More intermediation and engineering. We get inevitable excess. Policy tightens. This causes a financial crisis, which the central bank is forced to respond to – with the fear of deflation in mind – and rates fall further. The net effect is that nominal and real rates ratchet lower in a path-dependent fashion. And this leads to a monetary policy that is so lost we’ve had to create a new word to describe our bizarre destination: a world of financialization or more appropriately, hyper-financialization. It is the optimization of the economy around finance and asset prices – the fuel for the Occupy Wall Street manifesto.”

  “Now let’s look at the other half of this system: China’s mercantile model,” said the CIO. “We all vaguely know the story here – we all tried shorting it at one point or another. China discovered the Magic Money Tree. They used it to build a manufacturing empire and stopped the magic escaping from the capital account. This was MMT used in anger. They repressed the exchange rate to take export market share and accumulated FX reserves in the process. These were recycled into US Treasuries, supporting lower US interest rates. They repressed depositors with negative real returns on deposits to favor investment over consumption. The consumption share of GDP has remained depressed throughout, subjugated to investment exports and government spending. No wonder property became the savings vehicle of choice – and seemed to be an everlasting bubble. Free money allowed a massively accelerated pace of industrial development, especially after China joined the WTO in 2001.”

  “China’s rapid industrialization and hunger for global market share kept deflationary pressure on durable goods prices for thirty years, helping to keep consumer price inflation and interest rates lower in the West. And the beauty of the Magic Money Tree was that China could insulate its highly cyclical industry from any default cycle. It monetized bad debt and preserved unprotected, deflationary capacity. The stock of money ballooned. Banking assets are now around $52 trillion. They’ve grown by about $40 trillion since 2008. They’re now twice the size of the US banking system and China’s banks have added the equivalent of the US banking systems in just eight years. This is what hyper MMT looks like.”

  

  “The net result is that western monetary policy and China’s mercantile model fed off one another to give us this Alice in Wonderland ‘through-the-looking-glass’ transformation of massive monetary growth into a deflationary mechanism: The Refrigeration Mode. Both sides got what they wanted: China leapfrogging industrial development, and the US got low inflation in the great moderation. But it had side effects. A massive monetary overhang in China, hyper financialization in the US. These extremes are now biting back on the system through the political economy.”

  “The Deflationary D’s may still be with us (debt, demographics, disruption, digitization), but the system dynamic is becoming inflationary and there are some new supply side shocks that aren’t deflationary for a change. Both sides are in (re)flux. On the macro policy side, we are seeing powerful social reactions to the extremes produced by The Refrigeration Mode. These extremes are feeding into the political economy. Whether it’s the ‘Tax the Rich’ dress at the Met Gala, politicians and celebrities at climate change marches around the world, or bipartisan support for China containment, the challenge to the status quo is clear and present. The COVID crisis merely poured petrol on it.”

  “It means fiscal policy is back in the driver’s seat – just as central banks put an inflationary bias into their reaction functions. Future bailouts are coming via Main Street, as much as Wall Street. And when monetary and fiscal policy combine, policy becomes more directly inflationary in CPI terms, not simply in asset price terms.”

  “On the China side, the model is pivoting. Common prosperity in its ‘dual circulation strategy’ shifts the emphasis from a reliance on exports to a focus on the domestic consumer in regional markets. A digital currency will be presented as a haven of stability, while other economies appear to be debasing their own currencies. Deleveraging is a goal – so more defaults will be allowed. Profits will take precedence to export market share. So expect to see China continuing to export more goods priced at a premium, leaning against commodity price inflation. Taken together, all these changes transform The Refrigeration Mode into its reverse: A Heat Pump.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 22:30

• Billionaire Space Tourism Is Letting People Live Out Childhood Space Dreams…If They Can Afford It
  Billionaire Space Tourism Is Letting People Live Out Childhood Space Dreams…If They Can Afford It

  With the help of burgeoning space firms like Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, many of America’s ultra-rich are getting the opportunity to fulfill childhood space aspirations that may have otherwise been untenable. 

  At least that’s the story for venture investor Lane Bess, who made his money working in Silicon Valley’s cybersecurity startups, according to Bloomberg.

  He is going to be among 6 passengers that will be taking part in Blue Origin’s third manned space flight this weekend. 

  Bess said: “Part of who I am is seeking adventure and not being afraid to take risks. It’s fulfilling a boyhood dream.”

  And it’s not just Bess that’s getting to fulfill these childhood dreams. There has been a group of successful businesspeople who have been able to buy their way into outer space thanks to the “space race” taking place between billionaires like Richard Branson, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. 

  On Wednesday of last week, Japanese businessman Yusaku Maezawa also blasted off into space. The 46 year old is the first “tourist” to visit the ISS in over a decade. He also plans to be the “first paying passenger to fly around the moon” by way of Elon Musk’s SpaceX in 2023, the report notes.

  

  The man who put Maezawa’s trip together, Eric Anderson, chief executive officer of Space Adventures, says prices for such trips aren’t expected to come down anytime soon.

  He said: “The costs are labor, materials, infrastructure, and it’s all gone up over time. Imagine the cost of flying to Tokyo if you throw away the airplane after one flight.” 

  Bess did not disclose the price he paid for his trip, though Blue Origin had previously auctioned off a ticket to its inaugural crewed flight this past summer for $28 million. Bess didn’t win the action, he said.

  He said of the flight prep that “they’ve really tried to make this as consumer-friendly as possible”. 

  “Unlike SpaceX, Jeff Bezos has funded this primarily at his own cost. When you look at the facilities they’ve built and the engineering brilliance, it’s the kind of commitment very few people on Earth can make.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 22:00

• DeSantis Proposes $8 Million In Budget To Relocate Illegal Immigrants To Delaware, Martha’s Vineyard
  DeSantis Proposes $8 Million In Budget To Relocate Illegal Immigrants To Delaware, Martha’s Vineyard

  By Allen Zhong of EpochTimes,

  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis set $8 million in his 2022–23 budget to transport illegal immigrants out of The Sunshine State. He proposed the spending in the Freedom First Budget (pdf) to protect against harms resulting from illegal immigration. The spending may include the transportation of unauthorized aliens located within Florida to other states or the District of Columbia.

  “In yesterday’s budget, I put in $8 million for us to be able to transport people illegally [in the United States] out of the state of Florida,” he said during a press conference on Friday.

  The Republican governor listed Delaware, President Joe Biden’s hometown state, and Martha’s Vineyard, where former President Barack Obama owns a mansion, as potential destinations to relocate the illegal immigrants.

  “If you sent [illegal immigrants] to Delaware or Martha’s Vineyard or some of these places, that border would be secure the next day,” he said.

  DeSantis also encouraged more counties to participate in the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) 287(g) program, under which individuals who have been arrested on criminal charges and are being booked into the county jails are asked about their immigration status.

  

  Other proposed measures to reduce the harms of illegal immigrants include listing convicted illegal aliens on a public website.

  DeSantis threatened to send illegal immigrants to Delaware back in November. He said his office is looking at legal avenues after his administration alleged that about 70 flights of illegal aliens were sent to Jacksonville, Florida, after being picked up by agents along the U.S.–Mexico border.

  “We’re going to get together and figure out what we can do in the immediate term to protect folks in Florida,” DeSantis told reporters, noting that his options are limited because the federal government controls the immigration policies and actions.

  But “if they’re not doing that,” DeSantis added, “then clearly the state should be able to come in and provide protection, and so that’s what we’re going to be looking to do.”

  “If they’re going to come here, we’ll provide buses,” DeSantis said, before proclaiming, “I will send them to Delaware.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 21:30

• Smash And Grab Thieves Steal Millions In Jewelry From Rolls Royce Dealership
  Smash And Grab Thieves Steal Millions In Jewelry From Rolls Royce Dealership

  Thieves are becoming more brazen as they begin to target luxury shops. The latest incident was a smash and grab robbery at a Rolls Royce dealership in Chicago’s Gold Coast neighborhood, according to CBS Chicago. 

  On Saturday afternoon, two men, one armed with a handgun, raided the exotic car dealership. One thief used a hammer to break the display cases open and fill bags with expensive watches and other jewelry pieces. 

  In about 30 seconds, the men made off with over $2 million worth of jewelry, according to Joe Perillo, the dealership owner, who spoke with CBS Chicago. 

  

  “A city that I love and everybody loves to come to is going to be a desert if they don’t stop this. We’re going to have people moving out of this city — they’re moving out now — that want to just be safe,” said Perillo. 

  “They’re walking into my business, crashing the windows. And one guy stands with a gun. And we have to have this happen. Enough is enough,” he said. 

  Perillo voiced his frustration regarding Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s progressive policies that “if they [thieves] get arrested, they get let go. So how do you ever intend to solve the problem” of increasing retail thefts. 

  He added the county prosecutors and city leaders need to hold criminals accountable: 

  “It’s only a fool who keeps doing things the same way and expects different results. If the Mayor and Kim Foxx don’t do anything to get control of this, it’s not going to get better. It’s going to get worse,” he said.

  This luxury smash and grab follow a Louis Vuitton in the metro area was overrun by a flash mob. During Black Friday, there were other reports of retail stores in the region getting knocked up by thieves. 

  The mayhem is also unfolding across other progressive cities. Last month, a Nordstrom outlet in Walnut Creek, situated in the San Francisco Bay Area, was raided by 90 individuals. A Louis Vuitton in downtown San Francisco was also hit. 

  Smash and grabs are increasing in liberal cities because progressive laws have downgraded retail theft from a felony to a misdemeanor forcing stores to redesign their front entrances to prevent flash mobs. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 21:00

• Beijing Signals Growth-Pain Threshold Is Reached
  Beijing Signals Growth-Pain Threshold Is Reached

  By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst

  Three things we learned last week:

  1. Beijing’s focus has shifted to propping up the economy. The statement from the annual Central Economic Work Conference, where leaders set the economic strategy for the next year, signaled Friday that it’s a priority now to put a floor under the economy. It mentioned the words “stability” or “stabilize” 25 times, compared with 13 last year. Policy makers pledged to push forward infrastructure investments and cut fees and taxes. While it kept the mantra that housing is not for speculation, the authorities said they support reasonable demand for homes.

  The statement left out last year’s phrase that Beijing will keep the leverage ratio steady. The omission got some economists’ attention because it may suggest more monetary policy easing. But China Bull Research cautioned not to read too much into it because the CEWC didn’t mention the leverage ratio in 2019 either.

  So now what? Credit growth seems to have bottomed, but how far it can run up again is unknown as the broad control of the housing market remains intact. Investors are nonetheless encouraged that the macro policy mix is becoming more market friendly. Foreign investors added a record 49 billion yuan ($7.7 billion) via the northbound stock connect last week, while iron ore has gained about 30% since the low in mid-November.

  The next window to read the policy tea leaves comes on Wednesday when MLF loans mature. After the recent RRR cut, there’s speculation that the PBOC may lower the MLF rate, when the loans are rolled. It will come on the same day the Fed announces its policy decision. It sets up a potential show of the policy divergence between the Fed and PBOC (as first discussed here last week in “China Shifts To An Easing Mode While “Ex-China” Is On A Tightening Path“).

  

  2. Evergrande’s landmark default didn’t cause turmoil. Fitch labeled Evergrande and Kaisa Group as defaulters last week. But the tone of the junk bond market has improved after various policy tweaks.While default by the weakest credits are still likely, the BBB-/BB space is oversold, according to Citigroup’s credit strategists including Eric Ollom. They recommend buying a basket of junk bonds, including Country Garden, Shimao, Sino-Ocean and Sunac China.

  

  3. PBOC is drawing a line in the sand on the yuan. The central bank Thursday raised the foreign-exchange reserve, effectively draining the dollar supply to alleviate the appreciation pressure on the yuan. On Friday, the central bank set the fixing far weaker than analysts expected. While the one-two punch weakened the yuan a bit, the currency is not far away from the strongest since 2018. Monday’s fixing will be closely watched. There’s a risk that the counter-cyclical factor (CCF) will be re-introduced to add a weakening bias to the official fixing price.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 20:30

• Panic? US Mega-Corporations Rush To Abandon Vax Mandate
  Panic? US Mega-Corporations Rush To Abandon Vax Mandate

  Authored by Daniel McAdams via The Ron Paul Institute,

  This week’s nationwide annihilation of Biden’s Federal Contractor vaccine mandate at the hands Georgia Federal Judge R. Stan Baker has resulted in a landslide retreat of cowardly mega-corporations from their so-confident bullying of American workers.

  

  Biden’s illegal gamble, the nationwide Federal contractor vaccine mandate, has like his previous Medicare mandate and OSHA if-you-have-100-workers-mandatory-vax mandate been ripped to shreds early on in the courts.

  Biden’s mandates have always been a bullying gamble, an admission that they knew they were engaging in illegal acts but that they would continue to use the not-insignificant weapons of the executive branch to blast as much harm as possible until the courts stepped in and noted the obvious: “You can’t do this!”

  Cynics – and I sympathize – will say that the courts could have ruled either way so don’t get too excited.

  That’s the lesson of the past two years: There is nothing below us as we look down. It takes our breath away. We now understand that our civilization has been built on a pile of sand and any determined entity could tunnel under us as we are distracted by the human necessities of providing for our families and living our finite lives as best as possible.

  This horrible reality cannot be unseen.

  Previously we viewed our rulers – from dog catcher to president – as malevolent but for the most part at a distance. We never thought they would reach out with their gradually but steadily-acquired iron fist and squeeze the oxygen from our lungs: “Take a shot or starve!”

  The Hungarians in early 1918 similarly were shocked that living somewhat silently among them were aliens who would activate themselves at the exact most fertile moment and literally up-end their somnambulant state, imposing “mandates” on their society that included mobile gallows – a crude earlier form of the forced vax.

  With the welcome disintegration of this evil government decree – via Judge Baker’s ruling that the contractor mandate is illegal – one by one the mega-corporations also see their position as shifting to the untenable. They are bailing out as fast as possible.

  Some 83,000 Florida healthcare workers no longer face being kicked to the street by US government-sponsored terrorism, until this week dutifully enforced by the “free market” prostitutes in bed with the state.

  As hero Alex Berenson has reported Thursday, mega corporations in the US are also suddenly looking under themselves and finding that they are alone. No more government guns aimed at the powerless…at least for the time being.

  General Electric, 3M, Verizon, and Oracle have in the past day or so hedged their bets and snuck out of bed with the US government: no more vax requirements! We are talking about a large group of people no longer bound by the brotherhood of the needle.

  We are winning this for now and should pause to drink it in.

  But at the same time we must also look at what has rotted in our civilization that would allow such a force to upend us, to unleash this iron fist once hidden in a velvet glove. Life will never be the same knowing what these people have done to us. They must never be allowed to forget it.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 19:30

• Rupert Murdoch Buys Sprawling 340,000 Acre Montana Property, Mansion, For Reported $200 Million
  Rupert Murdoch Buys Sprawling 340,000 Acre Montana Property, Mansion, For Reported $200 Million

  While newly-listed shares of Buzzfeed continue their plunge, at least one tycoon is still proving that media can pay. 

  That’s because 90 year old Rupert Murdoch and his wife just purchased a sprawling $200 million cattle ranch, with attached mansion, that was formerly owned by the Koch family.

  The property is 340,000 acres, according to Bloomberg, and is known as “Beaverhead”. 

  

  A spokesperson for Murdoch declined to comment on the price of the property, but the previous owner has been confirmed to be Matador Cattle Co., a unit of Koch Industries. 

  It is the largest ranch sale in Montana’s history, the report says. Koch Industries bought the property about 70 years ago. It’s located near Yellowstone National Park.

  The property features elk, antelope and mule deer and is also located next to a 28 mile long river that’s good for trout fishing, Bloomberg noted.

  The price of the property pales in comparison to Murdoch’s reported net worth, which stands at about $8.8 billion.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 19:00

• $100,000 Bitcoin, $50 Oil, $2,000 Gold? 2022 Outlook In 5 Charts
  $100,000 Bitcoin, $50 Oil, $2,000 Gold? 2022 Outlook In 5 Charts

  By Mike McGlone, Bloomberg commodity strategist

  Peaking commodities and the declining yield on the Treasury long bond point to risks of reviving deflationary forces in 2022, with positive ramifications on Bitcoin and gold. A primary uncertainty heading into the new year is whether the U.S. stock market can keep rising amid Federal Reserve restraint, with implications for all assets.

  1. Money Supply Test: Sustainability vs. Vulnerability

  Asset class performance in 2022 is likely to be all about the potential for reversion toward the upward trajectory of U.S. money supply, which should favor gold, especially if stock-market returns normalize some. What’s different about that outlook, which has been relevant throughout much of history, is the proliferation of crypto assets. The fact that our graphic excludes the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) due to distortions of its outsized performance, is a top reason cryptos are gaining exposure in portfolios.

  So, will the trend turn, or are we in for more of the same? Our bias is the latter, notably because the BGCI has overcome about a 60% correction in 2021 vs. the S&P 500, which hasn’t had a 10%-plus drawdown since the 2020 trough. Underperforming commodities face increasing pressure/

  

  2. How Sustainable Is This Disparity?

  A bit of a backup in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022 — a top determinant of asset-price performance — is gaining potential from 2021 peaks in copper, crude oil and bond yields. It took about seven years at zero before the Fed began hiking in 2015. Fed funds futures show rates jumping toward 1% by the end of 2022. History has proven that a primary force to stop this process is some stock-market reversion. Our graphic depicts the S&P 500 the most extended above its 60-month moving average in two decades, and what we see as a consolidating gold bull market waiting on a catalyst to revisit $2,000-an-ounce resistance.

  The 2021 bounce in commodities and bond yields may be over, with implications for a resumption of enduring deflationary forces.

  

  3. Bitcoin Says: Why Complicate a Bull Market?

  Bitcoin is a risk asset that’s evolving into a digital reserve asset in a world going that way, with positive implications for its price. Demand and adoption are rising and still appear in early days vs. supply, which is declining. The key question nearing the end of 2021 is whether Bitcoin is too hot, and our chart shows the crypto fairly priced at about its upward-sloping 50-week moving average. Not too extended and within an upward trajectory sets the stage for a potentially strong 2022. Bitcoin ended 2020 around 140% above its annual mean.

  The overextended condition a year ago has been relieved, and it’s now a question of a consolidating bull or the beginning of a reversal. Our bias is with the former, on the back of favorable demand vs. supply fundamentals. About $100,000 is good target resistance.

  

  4. Crude Wonders: Why Complicate a Bear Market?

  The big difference between commodities — notably oil — and Bitcoin is elasticity of supply, which points downward for crude prices in 2022. In 2021, West Texas Intermediate stretched the greatest distance above its 60-month moving average since the peak in 2008. This is a bad sign for prices. The price bounce is accelerating the paradigm shift of the U.S. gaining enduring status as a net crude and liquid-fuel exporter, and encouraging the proliferation of substitutes and electric vehicles.

  We see unfavorable production vs. consumption, along with a challenging economic backdrop, and prices more likely to revert toward lower means. Our graphic depicts WTI appearing too hot at about $72 a barrel vs. its 60-month mean closer $56.

  

  5. Alert to the Great Commodity Deflation

  The risk of, and propensity for, some typical reversion in broad commodity prices may be a top development in 2022. Our graphic depicts the potential early days of normalization for the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index following an almost uninterrupted rally from 2020’s bottom. Commodity prices rising with China in decline is basically an oxymoron, based on historical patterns. The second cut of China’s reserve requirement ratio in 2021 (and likelihood of more to come), running alongside declining yields on the U.S. Treasury long bond is a poor mix for higher prices.

  China has been a primary source of demand for commodities, notably since 2003, and higher rates in the U.S. underpin the dollar, which typically is a headwind for commodity prices.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 18:30

• Hospitalizations, Mortality Cut In Half After Brazilian City Offered Ivermectin To Everyone Pre-Vaccine
  Hospitalizations, Mortality Cut In Half After Brazilian City Offered Ivermectin To Everyone Pre-Vaccine

  Early on in the pandemic, before the vaccines were available, the Southern Brazilian city of Itajai offered Ivermectin as a prophylaxis against the disease.

  

  Between July and December of 2020, roughly 220,000 people were offered a dose of 0.2mg/kg/day (roughly 18mg for a 200lb person) as an optional treatment for 2 days, once every two weeks.

  133,051 people took them up on it, while 87,466 did not.

  After analyzing the data, a team of researchers spanning several Brazilian institutes, the University of Toronto, and Columbia’s EAFIT concluded in a December pre-print study that hospitalization and mortality rates were cut in half over the seven month period among the Ivermectin group.

  This is even more impressive when you learn the IVM users were older on average, with 30% >50 yo versus 20% for non-IVM users. The mortality reduction is even higher looking at different age groups. 85% for 31-49 yo and 59% for >50 yo. pic.twitter.com/K6D5naybCS

  — Simon Vallée (@sival84) December 11, 2021

  The authors adjusted for relevant confounding variables, including age, sex, medical history, previous diseases, and other conditions.

  The analysis contradicts an October report by Business Insider which claims, based on a Brazilian ICU doctor’s anecdotal evidence, that the experiment was a failure.

  Study limitations:

  The authors note, “Being a retrospective observational analysis, it is uncertain whether results would be reproducible in a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial, but likely, since groups of ivermectin users and non-users had  similar demographic characteristics, and rates were adjusted for the relevant confounding variables.”

  We’re sure the ‘fact checkers’ are already hard at work trying to debunk the pre-print, however they may also want to take a look at ivmmeta.com – a real-time meta analysis of 70 studies which found that Ivermectin works as a prophylaxis 83% of the time. In peer-reviewed studies, it was found effective 70% of the time as an early treatment, and just 39% of the time as a late treatment.

  As we noted during the whole ‘horse paste’ controversy:

  Ivermectin

  This widely prescribed anti-parasitic which is also used in horses has shown meaningful efficacy worldwide in the treatment of mild and moderate cases of Covid-19, plus as a prophylactic. India’s Uttar Pradesh province, with a population of over 200 million, says that widespread early use of Ivermectin ‘helped keep positivity [and] deaths low.’

  

  Separately, there have been several studies funded by the Indian government, primarily conducted through their largest govt. public medical university (AIIMS).

  • Role of ivermectin in the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers in India: A matched case-control study (source)

  Conclusion: Two-dose ivermectin prophylaxis at a dose of 300 μg/kg with a gap of 72 hours was associated with a 73% reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers for the following month.

  • Ivermectin as a potential treatment for mild to moderate COVID-19 – A double blind randomized placebo-controlled trial (source)

  Conclusion: There was no difference in the primary outcome i.e. negative RT-PCR status on day 6 of admission with the use of ivermectin. However, a significantly higher proportion of patients were discharged alive from the hospital when they received ivermectin.

  • Clinical Research Report Ivermectin in combination with doxycycline for treating COVID-19 symptoms: a randomized trial (source, double-blind randomized, peer-reviewed)

  Discussion: In the present study, patients with mild or moderate COVID-19 infection treated with ivermectin in combination with doxycycline generally recovered 2 days earlier than those treated with placebo. The proportion of patients responding within 7 days of treatment was significantly higher in the treatment group than in the placebo group. The proportions of patients who remained symptomatic after 12 days of illness and who experienced disease progression were significantly lower in the treatment group than in the placebo group.

  

  Here are more human studies from other countries on the ‘horse dewormer’:

   

  Peru:

  • Sharp Reductions in COVID-19 Case Fatalities and Excess Deaths in Peru in Close Time Conjunction, State-By-State, with Ivermectin Treatments (source, peer-reviewed, University of Toronto, Universidad EAFIT)

  For the 24 states with early IVM treatment (and Lima), excess deaths dropped 59% (25%) at +30 days and 75% (25%) at +45 days after day of peak deaths. Case fatalities likewise dropped sharply in all states but Lima

  Spain:

  • The effect of early treatment with ivermectin on viral load, symptoms and humoral response in patients with non-severe COVID-19: A pilot, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial (source, University of Barcelona, peer-reviewed)

  Findings: Patients in the ivermectin group recovered earlier from hyposmia/anosmia (76 vs 158 patient-days; p < 0.001).

  Bengladesh:

  • A Comparative Study on Ivermectin-Doxycycline and Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin Therapy on COVID-19 Patients (source – peer reviewed, though not govt funded)

  Conclusion: According  to  our  study,  the  Ivermectin-Doxycycline combination therapy has better symptomatic relief, shortened recovery duration, fewer adverse effects, and superior patient compliance compared to the Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin combination. Based on this  study’s  outcomes,  the  Ivermectin-Doxycycline  combination  is  a  superior  choice  for  treating  patients  with  mild to moderate COVID-19 disease.

  • A five-day course of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19 may reduce the duration of illness (source, peer-reviewed double blind randomized, though small sample size)

  Discussion: A 5-day course of ivermectin resulted in an earlier clearance of the virus compared to placebo (p = 0.005), thus indicating that early intervention with this agent may limit viral replication within the host. In the 5-day ivermectin group, there was a significant drop in CRP and LDH by day 7, which are indicators of disease severity.

  Why does Ivermectin, a ‘horse dewormer’ work? For starters, it’s a protease inhibitor. Interestingly, Pfizer’s 2x/day Covid-19 prophylactic they’re trialing right now is also a protease inhibitor.

  

  Perhaps the most damning evidence in favor of Ivermectin is the medical establishment’s position that it’s essentially snake oil, despite the fact that it’s had a glowing safety profile for decades, until now.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 18:00

• Titleist Bans "Let's Go Brandon" Personalization Of Its Golf Balls
  Titleist Bans “Let’s Go Brandon” Personalization Of Its Golf Balls

  Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

  Don’t try to personalize your Titleist golf ball with the popular phrase “Let’s Go Brandon.”

  The golf equipment company bans customers from doing so on its website, alleging that the saying is “inconsistent” with its “values or brand identity.” When one tries to customize a golf ball with that message, one receives a notification stating:

  “Sorry, one or more of the words you have chosen cannot be used. Please see our Terms and Conditions to learn more about what we will imprint.”

  Titleist’s Terms and Conditions reads:

  “Acushnet Company [the parent company of Titleist] reserves the right to reject orders for imprints on our products that may, in our sole discretion, be inconsistent with our company values or brand identity, including, but not limited to logos, designs and/or personalizations that are negative in nature, advocate violence or illegal activity, or are slurs, hateful, threatening, libelous, defamatory, vulgar, obscene or pornographic.”

  As Fox News noted, “It is unclear which of those categories the phrase ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ violated.”

  

  The outlet added, “Certain political and vulgar messages that Fox News Digital tested on the website did not receive the same error message, including ‘F Trump,’ ‘ACAB,’ ‘Antifa,’ ‘Kill Cops,’ ‘Impeach Trump,’ and ‘Kill Trump.'”

  “Let’s Go” is an upbeat exhortation. “Brandon” is a common name. Whether apart or together, they/it are certainly not “threatening,” “libelous,” “vulgar,” “obscene,” or “pornographic.”

  “Let’s Go Brandon” is not a slur, which means an insinuation or allegation. Nor is it defamatory, the definition of which is “damaging the good reputation of someone.” Neither does it advocate violence or illegal activity.

  Is it hateful? Not on its face. Its symbolic or figurative meaning could conceivably be construed as such, but even that is relatively mild compared to so much else in our coarse modern society. And it is as nothing compared to what was directed at Trump (by individuals, groups and corporations) every day of his presidency, no obfuscation, restraint, or decorousness needed.

  So “F Trump” and “Kill Trump” are not “inconsistent” with Acushnet’s “company values or brand identity” but “Let’s Go Brandon” is? “F Trump” and “Kill Trump” are not “negative in nature” but “Let’s Go Brandon” is? That is the result when a company’s only value and brand identity is appeasing the woke mob to maximize profit, every other consideration be damned.

  I wonder if one could personalize a Titleist product on its website with “Titleist Sucks!?”

  Sadly, like many other corporations these days, the Acushnet Company appears to have no rationality, no integrity, no soul, and, ironically, no balls.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 17:30

• "We Expect A Sea Change": Morgan Stanley Admits It Was Wrong, Now Sees Liftoff In 2022 As Goldman Goes All-In With 7 Rate Hikes
  “We Expect A Sea Change”: Morgan Stanley Admits It Was Wrong, Now Sees Liftoff In 2022 As Goldman Goes All-In With 7 Rate Hikes

  At the start of the month, not long after Goldman capitulated and brought forward its first Fed rate hike forecast by one year to July 2022, virtually every Wall Street bank promptly followed in Goldman’s footsteps turning uber hawkish and expecting several rate hikes and/or accelerating tapering over the coming year. All, expect Morgan Stanley, which stubbornly refused to yield to peer pressure and continued to forecast no rate hikes in 2022 whatsoever.

  This remarkable divergence in Fed outlooks between the two most influential banks promoted us to tweet on Dec 1 that “2022 shaping up as a huge showdown between Goldman and Morgan Stanley. Former says 2, maybe 3 hikes; latter say no hikes. One will be spectacularly wrong.”

  2022 shaping up as a huge showdown between Goldman and Morgan Stanley

  Former says 2, maybe 3 hikes; latter say no hikes.

  One will be spectacularly wrong

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 1, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Just a few days later, with inflation soaring to a fresh 39-year-high (although perhaps finally topping out), Morgan Stanley decided to gracefully and quietly tap out and this week the bank’s -chief US economist Ellen Zentner, pulled forward the bank’s rate hike path by 6 months to September 2022, acknowledging that it was wrong and admitting that there has been a “pivot in the Fed’s reaction function.”

  Even so, Morgan Stanley still remains well beyond market expectations, saying it has “even greater conviction” in its call that core inflation moves off its highs in 1Q 2022, which however further validates concerns that the Fed is engaging in a policy error and tightening into a recession. 

  Here are some more details from Zentner’s note:

  Before investors close out the year, we need to get past the FOMC’s final meeting next week, and it comes with every opportunity for  surprise. On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to move to a hawkish stance by announcing that it is doubling the pace of taper, highlighting continued inflation risks and no longer labeling high inflation as transitory, and showing a hawkish shift in the dot plot. We think this shift will shake out in a 2-hike median in 2022, followed by 3.5 hikes in 2023 and 3 hikes in 2024.

  At the end of the meeting, we think the FOMC’s median view will align more closely with ours – we look for 2 hikes in 2022, followed by 3 hikes plus a halt in reinvestments in 2023. Moreover, we expect the Fed’s median forecast for core PCE and the unemployment rate will also come in reasonably close to our own, which now has higher inflation receding to around 2.5% 4Q/4Q next year, and the unemployment rate back to its pre-pandemic low around 3.5% in 4Q22.  The incoming data on the labor market and inflation has strayed materially from the Fed’s outlook and therefore warrants what we deem to be a sea change in its stance on the appropriate path for policy.

  At the same time, Zentener also says that the timing of liftoff in the bank’s forecast is tied closely to inflation outcomes, with its base case expectation that following the current re-acceleration in inflation we have been expecting, core PCE shows some slowing beginning in February next year. The pace of this deceleration will be important in determining how much of a breather the Fed takes between the end of its asset purchases and the first rate hike.

  

  Separately, on Friday we received data on inflation for the month of November showing that on a year-over-year basis, core CPI increased to 4.9% from 4.6%. Headline CPI ran at the highest rate since 1982. Despite the alarming headlines, financial markets seemed to be relieved at the results. Why? Because, according to Morgan Stanley, for the first time in months the month-over-month increase of 0.5% was in line with expectations instead of delivering an upside surprise.

  Going back to Morgan Stanley’s mea culpa, Zentener writes that in her outlook, the biggest out-of-consensus call has been the view that core inflation will show signs of slowing in 1Q22 as pandemic-related price pressures, particularly in goods, are slowly abating. She says that today she has “even more conviction in that view” and here’s why: 

  We are seeing nascent signs that pipeline inflation pressures are easing – based on evidence from company earnings transcripts, ISM comments, Korea trade data, China’s inflation data, the Fed’s Beige Book, a department huddle with our equity analysts, and our own survey.

  While Zentener admits that these sources by no means suggest that normalization “is well under way,” but at the very least they indicate that “bottlenecks have peaked” and the chief economist expects that in a few months, “this trend will work its way through the pipeline to finished goods prices at the consumer level.” It is unclear if Morgan Stanley’s previous thesis of a huge – and deflationary – inventory glut as supply chains blockages ease,

  In parting, the Morgan Stanley economist tries to deflect some of the blame for having been wrong in its call, and says that “to be right on our Fed call for 2 hikes in 2022, not only do we have to be right on the path for core PCE, but Chair Powell has to be willing to direct attention to slowing inflation as a way of pushing back on market expectations that are now pricing in nearly 3 hikes, with a healthy probability the Fed could begin as early as March.”

  But while Morgan Stanley is at least somewhat cautious about going hawkish, Goldman no longer has any such qualms, and moments ago on Saturday afternoon, the bank went all in on its hawkish relent… and so one month after pulling forward its call for a rate hike by over a year to July 2022, the bank now says that “the FOMC is very likely to double the pace of tapering to $30bn per month at its December meeting next week, putting it on track to announce the last two tapers at the January FOMC meeting and to implement the last taper in March.” As a result, Goldman now expects the FOMC to deliver rate hikes next year in May, July, and November (vs. June, September, and December previously) and another 4 in 2023 and 2024 (spread evenly 2 and 2). Some more details from the full note, which as usual is available to professional subs.

  New information about both inflation and the labor market since the FOMC last met supports a faster taper pace and an early liftoff. Inflation has increased further as prices of durable goods and shelter have continued to rise rapidly, though wage growth has slowed since enhanced unemployment benefits expired in September. Labor market slack has diminished rapidly, roughly in line with our expectations but faster than Fed officials expected.

  Chair Powell has indicated that the FOMC is likely to retire the word “transitory” from its statement and instead explain that it thinks the current period of elevated inflation is unlikely to “leave a permanent mark” by raising long-term inflation expectations. More meaningful changes to the statement, especially to language about inflation having run persistently below 2%, are also possible.

  We expect the Summary of Economic Projections to show somewhat higher inflation and lower unemployment. Our best guess is that the dots will show 2 hikes in 2022, 3 in 2023, and 4 in 2024, for a total of 9 (vs. 0.5 / 3 / 3 and a total of 6.5 in September). We think the leadership will prefer to show only 2 hikes in 2022 for now to avoid making a more dramatic change in one step, especially at a meeting when the FOMC is already doubling the taper pace. But if Powell is comfortable showing 3 hikes next year, then we would expect others to join him in a decisive shift in the dots in that direction.

  In conclusion, Goldman’s forecast calls for 3 hikes in 2022 (vs 2 for Morgan Stanley) and then 2 per year starting in 2023. The bank also expects two hikes per year starting in 2023 because like MS, it also expects inflation to fall to moderately above 2% and growth to slow to just above potential by then.

  That said, Goldman’s Jan Hatzius says that he “inferred from the September dots that Powell and Governor Brainard envision hiking twice per year in that environment, a slower pace than last cycle that we assume reflects the new monetary policy framework.” However, the bank will watch the December dots to see if they still view that as the default pace.

  Or, one can just look at what the market is saying and the conclusion there is clear: with the 4Y1Y – 2Y1Y curve inverting…

  

  … as STIR traders now expect rates in 2023 to be higher than in 2025, the verdict is simple: not only is the Fed engaging in policy error, hiking into an economic slowdown – with inflation having already peaked, someone has yet to explain to us how monetary policy will help alleviate supply chains, for example – but it will then proceed to rapidly cut rates (perhaps to negative) while injecting trillions more in QE once markets crash (amid the coming rate hike panic detailed meticulously by BofA CIO Michael Hartnett) to reflect the Fed’s panicked actions (which an objective observer could say reek suspiciously of political pandering to appease Joe Biden who is clearly freaking out about his collapsing rating and the impact inflation is having on it) some time in late 2022, just before the midterms.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 17:22

• China Creates "Humanized Pigs" To Be Used In COVID Research
  China Creates “Humanized Pigs” To Be Used In COVID Research

  In the years before COVID, the most visible testament to how far Beijing was willing to push its scientists past the bounds of what the international community deemed “acceptable” was its gene-editing prowess. A few years ago, one Chinese scientist shocked the world, and even wound up imprisoned in his home country for making the CCP look bad, when he unveiled the world’s first gene-edited human babies. The twin girls had their genetic material altered in utero to make them immune to their father’s HIV infection.

  We’re surprised that doesn’t come up more during discussions about Beijing’s rogue scientific endeavors – discussions that have become all the more common since COVID first burst out of Wuhan two years ago.

  

  Nobody knows where those gene-edited girls are now (the Chinese government won’t say), but Beijing has apparently found a new project for its best gene scientists: the country’s largest research institution has reportedly developed mutant “humanoid pigs” that are susceptible to the human strain of the coronavirus using the world’s premier gene editing technology.

  Once developed, the pigs will be used as test subjects as scientists test new remedies being developed to fight COVID. Though on this the Global Times, one of Beijing’s many state-controlled newspapers, didn’t go into much detail.

  A study published in August showed the researchers at the Institute of Microbiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences explained how the scientists used CRISPR, a gene-editing tool, to remove the genetic protections that allow the pigs to reduce the human virus. The project clearly has the full backing of the CCP: the CAS research institution is the world’s largest organization of its kind and a formal arm of the Chinese government.

  Why pigs? The Global Times, a mouthpiece for the Chinese government, actually has a pretty cogent explanation.

  The existing cell lines and animal models on guinea pigs and some primates used for simulation of COVID-19 infection cannot capture the key characteristics of human physiology and therefore limit the accuracy of test on efficacy of vaccines and drugs.

  We suppose they’re as good a host as any farm animal. They might even kill two birds with one stone if the unused pigs can then be eaten during the next outbreak of Pig Ebola.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 17:00

• Morgan Stanley: As Uncomfortable As It Can Be To Admit Defeat, Here We Are
  Morgan Stanley: As Uncomfortable As It Can Be To Admit Defeat, Here We Are

  By Seth Carpenter, global chief economist at Morgan Stanley

  This past week, our US economics team revised its Fed call. The change is motivated by the notable shift in rhetoric from Chair Powell. I want to walk through some of the logic, some of the implications, and why we have not seen a second “taper tantrum.”

  In November, the taper was announced. Since then, inflation prints have evidently surprised the Fed to the upside, and the public debate about inflation has reached fever pitch. A subtle, but to me particularly telling cue, was Chair Powell asserting that price stability is now the path to full employment. Waiting until 2Q or 3Q for inflation to fall is off the table. Now the level, not just the trajectory of inflation, is key…and the Fed is set to accelerate the taper.

  A change in the reaction function means a change in our call. Of course, the market has been there for some time, and as uncomfortable as it can be to admit defeat, here we are. So what next?

  In my time at the Fed, policy decisions were taken one step at a time. The faster taper – as Cleveland Fed President Mester noted –simply provides optionality, it does not commit the FOMC to a hike when it is done. In March, I suspect Chair Powell and team will want to pause to assess the markets and the economy. If our inflation call is right, they will have to wrestle with monthly inflation prints that are coming down faster than forecast.

  Falling inflation should reduce, but not eliminate, the urgency to raise rates. Some persistence in trend inflation will remain, so we are looking for quarterly rate hikes, starting in September. Next, the question will be when to unwind the balance sheet. I was a debate participant inside the Fed during the last cycle. The winning argument was to start with rates because the Fed had experience with that tool but not with the balance sheet. One cycle using the new tool probably does not change the sequencing. Consider that the FOMC reversed course on rates in early 2019 while shrinking the balance sheet; tightening had gone too far, too fast. And in September that year, just months later, the Fed had to rebuild reserves after over-shrinking. A single cycle’s worth of experience does not look like enough. Of course, now there is further to go, so the unwind may start a bit lower than the 1.25% level last time, but I suspect the playbook is largely unchanged.

  Does a sea change at the Fed mean a tsunami for the rest of the world? In 2013, the 10-year yield troughed at 1.63% but ended the year a touch over 3%. Partly by design and partly by circumstance, we are in a different place today. Once bitten, twice shy: the Fed worked hard to avoid a taper tantrum this time. The foreshadowing started way back in the minutes of the September 2020 meeting.

  Markets have started to price in Fed hikes, but yields have moved nothing like they did in 2013. Global inflation has already put many EM central banks on a hiking path; instead of being caught off guard, most have stayed ahead of the curve [ZH; just ignore China which is already in easing mode]. And even with the market pricing rate hikes, real US rates look likely to pick up only gradually. This time really does seem to be different.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 16:30

• DHL Is Keeping Pace With The Holiday Rush By Adding 1,500 New Robots
  DHL Is Keeping Pace With The Holiday Rush By Adding 1,500 New Robots

  The holiday season is helping shipping company DHL usher in automation quicker than it ever has.

  The shipping and supply chain giant has been “rushing” to add automation heading into this holiday season, according to a new report from Bloomberg.

  The company “doubled its use of robots in the U.S. this year”, the report says, and now has a total of about 1,500 picking robots at its warehouses across the country.

  The additional automation comes on top of hiring an additional 15,000 seasonal workers, the report said. 

  Oscar de Bok, chief executive, told Bloomberg last week that the additions has helped DHL stay current with orders.

  

  de Bok commented: “The supply-chain disruption that we’re seeing at the moment is not a one-time thing. Because of the growth of e-commerce, supply chains are now organized differently because you get major hops and jumps at the end of the supply chain, because that’s the end-consumer.”

  He continued: “All the stores and the wholesalers and distributors that used to be in between are now less, and that’s why you get more disruptions in supply chains.”

  de Bok said that the company started ramping up its holiday season early this year, allowing it to sidestep bottlenecks and logistics problems that have swept the globe.

  In order to hire so aggressively, wages have risen as much as 15% in some parts of the U.S., the report notes. DHL has also created eight centers across the U.S. to recruit and train workers, the report noted. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 16:00

• G-7 Warns Russia Of "Massive Consequences" For Ukraine Incursion
  G-7 Warns Russia Of “Massive Consequences” For Ukraine Incursion

  Authored by Alexander Zhang via The Epoch Times,

  The Group of Seven (G-7) major industrialized countries on Sunday warned that any Russian invasion of Ukraine would have “massive consequences” and would incur “a severe cost.”

  

  In a statement issued after a two-day summit held in the English city of Liverpool, G-7 foreign ministers said they are “united in our condemnation of Russia’s military build-up and aggressive rhetoric towards Ukraine.”

  The foreign policy chiefs from the United States, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the European Union, called on Russia to “deescalate, pursue diplomatic channels, and abide by its international commitments on transparency of military activities.”

  “Any use of force to change borders is strictly prohibited under international law,” they said. “Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe cost in response.”

  “We reaffirm our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the right of any sovereign state to determine its own future,” they added.

  Earlier, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told a press conference that the G-7 allies have “sent a very clear united message to [Russian President] Vladimir Putin.”

  Truss said the UK is considering “all options” including economic sanctions in response to potential Russian aggression.

  “When the UK has wanted to send clear messages and achieve clear goals, we have been prepared to use economic sanctions. So we are considering all options,” she told reporters.

  The warning comes amid rising tensions over a Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border, which is seen as a sign of a potential invasion.

  Ukrainian officials have estimated that more than 90,000 Russian troops are massing near the border in Russian-occupied Crimea, and have said they believe an attack is imminent. They have asked the United States and other countries for help defending the country’s borders.

  Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union before becoming an independent country in 1991.

  

  Ukrainian servicemen attend a rehearsal of an official ceremony to hand over tanks, armored personnel carriers, and military vehicles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces as the country celebrates Army Day in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Dec. 6, 2021. (Gleb Garanich/Reuters)

  Western countries view Ukraine as a bulwark against Russia, which harbours ambitions for more territorial control. Russia seized Crimea in 2014, when former U.S. President Barack Obama was in office.

  Truss also said the G-7 is concerned about China’s “coercive economic policies” across the globe.

  “We have been clear at this meeting this weekend that we are concerned about the coercive economic policies of China,” she said. “And what we want to do is build the investment reach, the economic trade reach, of like-minded, freedom-loving democracies.”

  Talking about the Iran nuclear issue, Truss warned the Islamic regime that the ongoing talks with world powers in Vienna is “the last chance for Iran to come to the negotiating table with a serious resolution to this issue.”

  She reiterated that the international community “will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 15:30

• El-Erian Says Fed Made "Worst Inflation Call Ever"
  El-Erian Says Fed Made “Worst Inflation Call Ever”

  New data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed price inflation in November rose to the highest in four decades. Americans are getting antsy about persistent inflation wiping out their real wage gains as Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warned the Federal Reserve is losing credibility by not tapering its balance sheet to rein in inflation.  

  El-Erian told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that the most significant miscalculation in decades is the Fed’s inability to characterize inflation correctly. As readers know, Fed Chair Jerome Powell retired the “transitory” narrative on Nov. 30 and opted to label inflation as persistent. 

  

  “The characterization of inflation as transitory — it’s probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve,” El-Erian said. 

  El-Erian Says Transitory Inflation Call Likely Fed’s Worst Ever.

  Just wait until the 9 rate hikes into a global recession

  That said, here’s team “transitory” pic.twitter.com/YhTPW0aEV4

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 12, 2021

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  “It results in a high probability of a policy mistake,” he said. “So the Fed must quickly, starting this week, regain control of the inflation narrative and regain its own credibility. Otherwise, it will become a driver of higher inflation expectations that feed off themselves.”

  El-Erian said Powell “needs to ease his foot off the accelerator” in reference to the $120 billion in bond buying every month. He said there is “no reason why they [Fed] should be injecting so much liquidity,” adding that the Fed should not be boosting housing prices at a time when an unaffordability crisis is emerging.

  Allianz chief economic advisor @elerianm: “The fed must quickly, starting this week, regain control of the inflation narrative and regain its own credibility. Otherwise, it will become a driver of higher inflation expectation that feed onto themselves.” pic.twitter.com/u34sztxpWu

  — Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) December 12, 2021

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  Reducing bond-buying today will avoid a future hard wind-down of the balance sheet that could shock the economy into turmoil, El-Erian said. He has repeatedly said the Fed underestimated inflation risks that have led to soaring prices for energy, food, and shelter to all sorts of other consumer items, such as automobiles. 

  The Fed has been on a bond-buying spree for at least 20 or so months, purchasing $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities every month. Low rates have overstimulated the economy, pushing November’s Consumer Price Index to 6.8% YoY, or the highest print since 1982. 

  

  November’s CPI print is another blow for team transitory as the drivers of inflation were increasingly broad-based. 

  El-Erian doesn’t believe peak inflation has arrived and thinks consumer price increases could remain elevated in the months ahead. His comments on Friday were not far off from remarks made at the ADIPEC energy industry forum in Abu Dhabi last month. 

  It’s terrific to hear market realist El-Erian on mainstream media, continuing to pound the table about the Fed’s terrible inflation call.  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 15:00

• Turley: Gavin Newsom Calls For California Gun Ban Modeled After Texas Abortion Law
  Turley: Gavin Newsom Calls For California Gun Ban Modeled After Texas Abortion Law

  Authored by Jonathan Turley (emphasis ours),

  California Gov. Gavin Newsom thrilled many this weekend by saying that his administration will model a new law on Texas’ abortion ban that would let private citizens sue anyone who makes or sells assault weapons or ghost guns. It won’t work. Legally, that is. It will be hugely successful politically, but not without costs to the state and potential litigants.

  

  Gov. Newsom denounced the Supreme Court in Women’s Health v. Jackson for refusing to enjoin the Texas law that allows people to sue anyone who “aids or abets” one performed after about six weeks. That led to widespread a calls for the passage of legislation to “codify Roe,” including from the White House.

  Newsom, however, wants to replicate the law to limit Second Amendment rights the way that conservatives used it to limit reproductive rights.

  “I am outraged by yesterday’s U.S. Supreme Court decision allowing Texas’s ban on most abortion services to remain in place. But if states can now shield their laws from review by the federal courts that compare assault weapons to Swiss Army knives, then California will use that authority to protect people’s lives, where Texas used it to put women in harm’s way.”

  Newsom said that his staff will be working with the Legislature and California Attorney General Rob Bonta to craft the bill to let citizens sue anyone who “manufactures, distributes, or sells an assault weapon or ghost gun kit or parts” in California. They could seek damages of at least $10,000 per violation plus costs and attorney’s fees.

  Good luck with that.

  SCOTUS is letting private citizens in Texas sue to stop abortion?!

  If that’s the precedent then we’ll let Californians sue those who put ghost guns and assault weapons on our streets.

  If TX can ban abortion and endanger lives, CA can ban deadly weapons of war and save lives. https://t.co/N5Iur9PEUZ

  — Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) December 12, 2021

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  The problem is multifold.

  First, the Texas law was quickly found to be unconstitutional, as would the California law. Indeed, many of us declared the law as facially unconstitutional under existing precedent on the day that it was enacted. That means that, while there are litigation costs, those costs would decrease quickly as other courts declare challenges to be unconstitutional.

  Second, the Supreme Court just allowed pre-enforcement challenges so the California law could be challenged to avoid any “chilling effect” on gun rights. Eight out of nine justices agreed that such early challenges are permissible against those with enforcement responsibilities in the abortion area. As a state that has led efforts to limit gun rights, there are a host of such officials with similar licensing powers in California.

  Third, and most importantly, Newsom limited the law to gun manufactures, distributors, and sellers” to the exclusion of a wider array of purchasers or “aiders and abetters.” The Texas law was so menacing because it exposed such a wide array of people to potential lawsuit. It would not be quite as popular to go after gun owners or gun rights groups. Yet, Newsom is targeting business which are going to be less intimidated by such litigation costs in a law that would be clearly unconstitutional.

  That is why, if the law is crafted as Newsom suggests, this won’t work legally. Nevertheless, there will be much cooing on cable programs at the cleverness of Newsom and the comeuppance for conservatives. Newsom will seize the moment in terms of popularity while leaving the costs to others to bear in the later failed litigation.

  Newsom did not help things by declaring “If the most efficient way to keep these devastating weapons off our streets is to add the threat of private lawsuits, we should do just that.” That is openly acknowledging that this law is meant to achieve indirectly what the state has failed to do directly: reduce gun ownership. That is precisely why the Supreme Court just green-lighted pre-enforcement challenges to the Texas law and now, with the help of Newsom, the California law would collapse quickly on the same grounds.

  In the recent decision in Chief Justice John Roberts noted that

  “The clear purpose and actual effect of S. B. 8 has been to nullify this Court’s rulings. … Indeed, “[i]f the legislatures of the several states may, at will, annul the judgments of the courts of the United States, and destroy the rights acquired under those judgments, the constitution itself becomes a solemn mockery.” United States v. Peters, 5 Cranch 115, 136 (1809). The nature of the federal right infringed does not matter; it is the role of the Supreme Court in our constitutional system that is at stake.”

  With his bravado, Newsom has guaranteed that courts will strike down his law as an open “mockery” of gun rights precedent and he will actually box in liberal judges and jurists in voting against the California law on the same grounds.

  Indeed, the California law would put the Biden Administration into a bind. It just intervened first as an amicus party and then an actual party in the Texas litigation. (As expected, the Court tossed out the Biden Administration’s lawsuit as “improvidently granted”). The Administration insisted that such a law is an abomination given that the rights of abortion are established and this is an effort to nullify those rights through exposure to lawsuits. Here Newsom himself said that that is precisely what they want to do.

  So, will the Biden administration refuse to oppose the law in defense of established gun rights as it did reproductive rights? If so, it would support criticism of the Justice Department of advancing in political agendas and make Attorney General Merrick Garland look like a feckless functionary. With the mid-term elections looming and falling polling numbers across the country, that is probably not a choice the Biden Administration would like to make to defend a legislatively-supported soundbite.

  Once the early courts strike down the California law, some citizens could face sanctions for frivolous lawsuits seeking litigation costs (unless such motions are blocked under the law).  Moreover, there will be a great expense of drafting and defending a law designed to support a soundbite. Many judges will be even less enamored with being asked to participate in what is largely political performance art.

  That is why the new California law is certain to play better on cable than in the courts.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/12/2021 – 14:30

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• A Judicial Kidnapping
  A Judicial Kidnapping

  Authored by John Pilger via ConsortiumNews.com,

  Sartre’s words should echo in all our minds following the grotesque decision of Britain’s High Court to extradite Julian Assange to the United States where he faces “a living death”. This is his punishment for the crime of authentic, accurate, courageous, vital journalism.

  Miscarriage of justice is an inadequate term in these circumstances. It took the bewigged courtiers of Britain’s ancien regime just nine minutes on Friday to uphold an American appeal against a District Court judge’s acceptance in January of a cataract of evidence that hell on earth awaited Assange across the Atlantic: a hell in which, it was expertly predicted, he would find a way to take his own life.

  

  Volumes of witness by people of distinction, who examined and studied Julian and diagnosed his autism and his Asperger’s Syndrome and revealed that he had already come within an ace of killing himself at Belmarsh prison, Britain’s very own hell, were ignored.

  The recent confession of a crucial FBI informant and prosecution stooge, a fraudster and serial liar, that he had fabricated his evidence against Julian was ignored. The revelation that the Spanish-run security firm at the Ecuadorean embassy in London, where Julian had been granted political refuge, was a CIA front that spied on Julian’s lawyers and doctors and confidants (myself included) – that, too, was ignored.

  The recent journalistic disclosure, repeated graphically by defense counsel before the High Court in October, that the CIA had planned to murder Julian in London – even that was ignored. Each of these “matters”, as lawyers like to say, was enough on its own for a judge upholding the law to throw out the disgraceful case mounted against Assange by a corrupt US Department of Justice and their hired guns in Britain. Julian’s state of mind, bellowed James Lewis, QC, America’s man at the Old Bailey last year, was no more than “malingering” – an archaic Victorian term used to deny the very existence of mental illness.

  To Lewis, almost every defense witness, including those who described from the depth of their experience and knowledge, the barbaric American prison system, was to be interrupted, abused, discredited. Sitting behind him, passing him notes, was his American conductor: young, short-haired, clearly an Ivy League man on the rise.

  Nine Minutes of Infamy

  In their nine minutes of dismissal of journalist Assange’s fate, two of Britain’s most senior judges, including Lord Chief Justice Ian Burnett (a lifelong buddy of Sir Alan Duncan, Boris Johnson’s former foreign minister who arranged Assange’s brutal police kidnapping from the Ecuadorean embassy) referred in their summary judgment to not one of a litany of truths that had struggled to be heard in a lower court presided over by a weirdly hostile judge, Vanessa Baraitser.

  Her insulting behaviour towards a clearly stricken Assange, struggling through a fog of prison-dispensed medication to remember his name, is unforgettable.

  Assange Lawyer: “It is highly disturbing that a U.K. court has overturned a decision not to extradite Assange, accepting vague assurances by the US government, which has reportedly plotted to kidnap or even assassinate Mr. Assange” #FreeAssangeNOW https://t.co/hGGYLm5vJ4

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) December 11, 2021

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  What was truly shocking Friday was that the High Court judges – Lord Burnett and Lord Justice Timothy Holroyde, who read out their words – showed no hesitation in sending Julian to his death, living or otherwise. They offered no mitigation, no suggestion that they had agonized over legalities or even basic morality.

  Their ruling in favor, if not on behalf of the United States, is based squarely on transparently fraudulent “assurances” scrabbled together by the Biden administration when it looked in January like justice might prevail.

  These “assurances” are that once in American custody, Assange will not be subject to the Orwellian SAMS – Special Administrative Measures – which would make him an un-person; that he will not be imprisoned at ADX Florence, a prison in Colorado long condemned by jurists and human rights groups as illegal: “a pit of punishment and disappearance”; that he can be transferred to an Australian prison to finish his sentence there.

  The absurdity lies in what the judges omitted to say. In offering its “assurances”, the US reserves the right not to guarantee anything should Assange do something that displeases his jailers. In other words, as Amnesty has pointed out, it reserves the right to break any promise.

  There are abundant examples of the US doing just that. As investigative journalist Richard Medhurst revealed last month, David Mendoza Herrarte was extradited from Spain to the U.S. on the “promise” that he would serve his sentence in Spain. The Spanish courts regarded this as a binding condition.

  “Classified documents reveal the diplomatic assurances given by the US Embassy in Madrid and how the U.S. violated the conditions of the extradition,” wrote Medhurst. “Mendoza spent six years in the U.S. trying to return to Spain. Court documents show the United States denied his transfer application multiple times.”

  

  The High Court judges, who were aware of the Mendoza case and of Washington’s habitual duplicity, describe the “assurances” – not to be beastly to Julian Assange – as a “solemn undertaking offered by one government to another.”

  The Imperial Way

  This article would stretch into infinity if I listed the times the rapacious United States has broken “solemn undertakings” to governments, such as treaties that are summarily torn up and civil wars that are fueled. It is the way Washington has ruled the world, and before it Britain: the way of imperial power, as history teaches us. It is this institutional lying and duplicity that Julian Assange brought into the open and in so doing performed perhaps the greatest public service of any journalist in modern times.

  Julian himself has been a prisoner of lying governments for more than a decade now. During these long years, I have sat in many courts as the United States has sought to manipulate the law to silence him and WikiLeaks. This reached a bizarre moment when, in the tiny Ecuadorean embassy, he and I were forced to flatten ourselves against a wall, each with a notepad in which we conversed, taking care to shield what we had written to each other from the ubiquitous spy cameras – installed, as we now know, by a proxy of the CIA, the world’s most enduring criminal organization.

  Look at Ourselves

  This brings me to the quotation at the top of this article: “Let us look at ourselves, if we have the courage, to see what is happening.”

  Jean-Paul Sartre wrote this in his preface to Franz Fannon’s The Wretched of the Earth, the classic study of how colonized and seduced and coerced and, yes, craven peoples do the bidding of the powerful.

  Who among us is prepared to stand up rather than remain mere bystanders to an epic travesty such as the judicial kidnapping of Julian Assange? What is at stake is both a courageous man’s life and, if we remain silent, the conquest of our intellects and sense of right and wrong: indeed our very humanity.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 23:30

• Hackers Blamed For Cream Cheese Shortage Currently Afflicting The US
  Hackers Blamed For Cream Cheese Shortage Currently Afflicting The US

  Some are calling it the most important news story in the US right now. Thanks to a cyber attack that crippled Schreiber Foods, the largest cream cheese manufacturer in the US, for a few days back in October (thanks, Putin), the US is now struggling with a shortage of schmear, which is particularly troubling for New Yorkers, who are known to enjoy a toasted bagel with a hefty serving of the stuff (perhaps along with some lox and capers).

  Without a reliable source of cream cheese, millions of bagel-loving Big Apple residents are probably contemplating consuming their favorite breakfast with butter and jam, like an Englishman.

  

  What’s worse, the hackers who carried out the attack on Schreiber knew enough to time the shut down to coincide with the busiest season for cream cheese demand. During the holidays, Americans use cream cheese to bake cakes and treats, and new holiday flavors like Pumpkin Spice cream cheese (yeah, that’s a real thing) go flying off the shelves. And October is the last month for companies like Schreiber (which has few rivals) to ensure they have enough stock to last the season.

  Since cream cheese is made fresh, there are no reserves to draw from. According to Bloomberg, it’s just one more example of how (presumably Russian-backed) hackers have contributed to the chaos afflicting the American food supply, as well as the supply of certain foodstuffs around the world.

  This in turn contributes to the inflationary pressures plaguing the US, where – according to Friday’s landmark CPI report – prices are rising at 6.8% YoY, their fastest pace since 1982.

  

  Schreiber isn’t the only food-related company to be targeted by hackers: they also targeted meat giant JBS and an Iowa grain cooperative this year.

  According to Andrew Novakovic, an agricultural economist at Cornell University, cream cheese is “particularly vulnerable” to supply chain issues. Some manufacturers have had problems sourcing starch, a thickening agent, as well as packaging like plastic film and cardboard boxes.

  Additionally, labor shortages such as a shortage of truck drivers is hitting the dairy industry particularly hard because drivers need an extra license to pick up milk from farms.

  Yet another example of how the US’s own bureaucratic red tape is helping to exacerbate the labor shortage.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 23:00

• Joe Biden, Let's Not Go To War
  Joe Biden, Let’s Not Go To War

  Authored by Sheldon Richman via The Libertarian Institute,

  Here’s a good idea: let’s not go to war against Russia. Let’s not even rattle a saber at Russia (or China, for that matter) because even wars that no one really wants can be blundered into. Many losers would be left in the aftermath, even if nuclear weapons were kept out of sight, but no one would win. So as that smart Defense Department computer says in the 1983 movie WarGames, “The only winning move is not to play.”

  The crisis du jour is Ukraine; before that, it was Georgia, both former Soviet republics. For some inexplicable reason, Russia’s rulers get nervous when the US foreign policy elite treats Russian historical security concerns as of no consequence. Could it have something to do with the several invasions of Russia through Eastern Europe in the past? Jeez, from the way the irrational Russians behave, you’d think their American counterparts never invoked US security concerns (usually bogus) as a reason for military action. As if…

  

  But maybe it is time for America’s rulers to take Russian worries into consideration. Even for those of us who are no fans of Vladimir Putin and the government he runs, this seems like good advice – if for no other reason than narrow American self-interest. At least, that’s how it looks from the view of regular Americans, who might appreciate for a change what Adam Smith described as “peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice.”

  Anyone who has paid attention to US foreign policy since the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact alliance, 1989-91, would realize that America’s bipartisan foreign-policy elite has taken precisely the wrong tack by baiting nervous Russian nationalists at every turn. Despite promises to the contrary, that elite has led the charge to add members to the NATO alliance, taking the anti-Soviet military and political organization right up to the Russian border and staging military exercises uncomfortably close. The U.S. has also sold weapons systems to NATO-member Poland, formerly a member of the Warsaw Pact.

  Putin insists that NATO not expand any further, but Biden told him to shut up. The US position is that NATO’s inclusion of former Soviet possessions is purely an alliance affair. Meanwhile, Biden threatens more harsh economic sanctions and even more US troops to Eastern Europe if Putin doesn’t acquiesce by, among other things, moving his troops away from the Russia-Ukraine border.

  Let’s also recall that in 2014 the U.S. stood behind a neo-Nazi-supported coup against an elected, Russian-friendly president in Ukraine, knowing full well how the Russians would react. Fearing US/NATO encroachment, Putin’s government annexed Crimea with its strategic warm-water Black Sea naval base, which has been part of the Russian security system for over 200 years. Nevertheless, and most relevant to today’s heightened tensions, Putin declined an opportunity to annex eastern Ukraine (the Donbass region full of ethnic Russians ) when a majority there voted for independence from Kiev.

  You didn’t have to know too much about European history to see how provocative the US-sponsored regime change in Ukraine would be. To make matters worse, Ukraine and Georgia have become de facto NATO members, but only because the U.S. elite has not yet convinced its European counterparts to give those two former Soviet republics official membership. That, however, hasn’t stopped Washington from extending a security guarantee to Ukraine that is all too much like the one that NATO members extend to one another. Biden has just reinforced that guarantee.

  Which Americans are ready to die for Kiev? For some reason it’s easy for Americans, who can be as nationalistically self-centered as anyone, to assume that any ratcheting up of tensions with Russia must be the Russians’ fault.

  The U.S. has provided $2.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine since 2014.

  Military aid stokes the false idea in Kyiv that the U.S. would fight to protect Ukraine from Russia.

  The U.S. has no interest in Ukraine that warrants risking war with Russia. https://t.co/D29OQjhEpp pic.twitter.com/C5GuRgOehU

  — Defense Priorities (@defpriorities) December 10, 2021

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  The establishment media have no problem presenting this as an indisputable fact. But how do they know it’s true? They never furnish evidence. Foreign-policy expert Ted Galen Carpenter of the Cato Institute has a much more evidence-bound take:

  Moscow’s behavior has been more a reaction to aggressive moves that the United States and its Ukrainian client have already taken than it is evidence of offensive intent. Russian leaders have viewed the steady expansion of NATO’s membership and military presence eastward toward Russia’s border since the late 1990s suspiciously and they have considered Washington’s growing strategic love affair with Kiev as especially provocative.

  Moreover, Carpenter adds,

  Ukraine’s own policies have become dangerously bellicose. The government’s official security doctrine adopted earlier this year, for example, focuses on retaking Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014 following the West’s campaign that helped demonstrators overthrow Ukraine’s elected, pro-Russian president. Statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky and other leaders have been disturbingly bellicose, and Ukraine’s own military deployments have further destabilized an already fragile situation.

  Carpenter points out that while the United States is far more powerful than Russia in conventional terms, “unless the United States and its allies are willing to wage an all-out war against Russia, an armed conflict confined to Ukraine (and perhaps some adjacent territories), would diminish much of that advantage. Russian forces would be operating close to home, with relatively short supply and communications lines. US forces would be operating far from home with extremely stressed lines. In other words, there is no certainty that the US would prevail in such a conflict.”

  Would the Biden administration then back down or go nuclear? Who is eager to find out? Those considerations aside, the U.S. government should simply stop fanning the Russophobic flames simply because a war would be incredibly stupid.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 22:30

• EA Games Tells Kyle Rittenhouse His Name Could "Harm" Other Gamers
  EA Games Tells Kyle Rittenhouse His Name Could “Harm” Other Gamers

  Everywhere he goes (on the Internet, and in real life), Kyle Rittenhouse appears to be facing harassment from both individuals and organizations who want to take it into their own hands to hold him “accountable”, despite the fact that he was acquitted by a jury of his peers.

  Just the other day, the social-media platform TikTok (a Chinese-controlled platform that has been caught pushing pro-CCP propaganda to impressionable American teens) censored a pro-Rittenhouse video, while allowing the endless stream of “Toks” featuring scantily clad teenage and underage girls engaging in sexually suggestive behavior to continue with little interruption.

  Shortly after that incident, Rittenhouse himself received a warning from EA Games for featuring language that could “harm others or negatively disrupt the game”, according to an email shared by Rittenhouse on his platform.

  The language in question? Rittenhouse’s own name, which is featured in an online handle.

  Rittenhouse shared part of the email on his Instagram story.

  

  Interestingly, Rittenhouse didn’t even use his name on EAs own online platform, but rather the company found that he used it on Steam, the world’s largest PC games distribution service which players use to buy and download games created by different developers. The name, EA’s email continued, is an “inappropriate reference” to “violence, terror, and tragic events.”

  So, put another way, EA doesn’t even want Rittenhouse buying its games, unless he does so anonymously.

  The “Positive Play Charter” that Rittenhouse is accused of violating reads like this: “an updated set of community guidelines with clear consequences for players who engage in racist, sexist, homophobic, and abusive acts in our games and channels.” Introduced last June, the company said at the time that it had removed more than 3.5K instances of “inappropriate and hurtful names and language” in the weeks leading up to its introduction.

  The incident harkened back to a moment during the Rittenhouse trial, where the prosecution suggested he might have shot the three men (two of which were killed) because of his experience playing video games like “Call of Duty”.

  “It’s just a video game,” Rittenhouse famously replied. “It’s not real life.”

  We wonder how EA might react if Rittenhouse’s supports decided to call for a boycott of its games and other products?

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 22:00

• "When Science Mixes With Politics, All We Get Is Politics…"
  “When Science Mixes With Politics, All We Get Is Politics…”

  Authored by Robert Arvay via AmericanThinker.com,

  I just finished reading an article on the Big Think website titled, “When science mixes with politics, all we get is politics,” by Professor Marcelo Gleiser, theoretical physicst, Dartmouth College.  I mistakenly thought that the commentary would decry the misuse of science by politicians, but no.  Instead, it decries the mistrust that we, the unwashed masses, have developed for the science establishment in recent years.  

  Unwittingly, the eminent professor gives us yet more reasons to regard science insiders with skepticism.

  

  He does what so many of his colleagues do, which is to equate science itself, with the institutions that purport to advance science.  To question politicized scientists, then, is supposedly unscientific.

  To illustrate my personal contact with science-bias, I refer to an email I sent on Feb 3, 2021, to NASA regarding a brief article it had posted at the Space dot com website.  Here is the letter with punctuations slightly adjusted:

  Space dot com has been a credible source of information, because it does not reveal political bias. 

  The story at, “Space Force has Biden’s ‘full support,’ White House says,” … is a sad exception. 

  It was good coverage until it said  

  It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that Psaki didn’t have a wealth of Space Force information and ideas immediately to hand yesterday. The Biden administration is dealing with a number of pressing issues as it gets up and running, especially the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, so space issues likely aren’t a big priority at the moment.

  Making wordy excuses for the press rep’s lack of knowledge by citing “a number of pressing issues ” is disingenuous.

  ALL administrations have serious pressing issues initially.  With Psaki, even supporters of the new administration have ridiculed Psaki’s pronounced lack of preparedness, citing her frequent “circle back” phrase.

  It would have been more forthright to simply say nothing at all about the press rep, or at most, simply saying, something like, Psaki didn’t have the Space Force information at the time of the press conference.

  That would have been unbiased, factual, and would not have sounded patronizing.

  I hope that you are self-aware enough to recognize your own bias, and to keep it from tainting 

  your otherwise excellent coverage in the future.  Obeisance does not become you.

  – Robert Arvay

  Since then, I have not seen another example of such blatant politicization on the NASA website. 

  Whether my email to them had anything to do with it, I will probably never know.

  Censorship of actual science has been heavy-handed, both by Democrats and by their big-tech acolytes.  

  Epidemiologists, virologists and physicians who do not toe the party line regarding COVID have been intimidated and silenced.  Science that cannot be openly questioned is not science, since the heart and soul of science is to scrutinize every claim from every angle.  If we are to be told that we must follow the science, then scientists must explain to us the inductive reasoning that was applied to exclude members of Congress, and their staffs, from the COVID restrictions they imposed on the rest of us.  If scientists are to decry those of us who doubt their word, then they must equally decry the policy of distributing unvaccinated, untested illegal aliens to every state, while denying entry to legal travelers.

  To decry only the skeptics, while ignoring the egregious anti-science of many politicians, does nothing to engender trust in the institutions of science.  It does the opposite.

  Yes, Professor, mixing science with politics does indeed result only in politics.  Thank you for being an example of that. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 21:30

• Top Japan Officials To Join US Boycott Of Beijing Olympics As List Grows
  Top Japan Officials To Join US Boycott Of Beijing Olympics As List Grows

  So far Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Lithuania have said they won’t send government officials to the 2022 Winter Olympic games hosted in Beijing, with New Zealand citing COVID-19 as the main reason, after the United States unveiled its own diplomatic boycott. This past week saw the above-named English speaking allies of the US joining Washington’s boycott while citing longstanding criticisms of China’s human rights record. 

  And now Japan has joined the growing list, as Al Jazeera writes, “Senior Japanese government officials will likely skip the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February, joining the United States in a diplomatic boycott, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Saturday, citing multiple sources with knowledge of the matter.”

  

  China has condemned the diplomatic boycott movement as “political posturing” while suggesting that in reality Chinese citizens could care less if American leaders don’t attend, saying they weren’t invited anyway. But America’s ability to get other influential nations to follow suit will be hard for China to ignore, after its officials warned of unnamed retaliatory measures on the table.

  Here’s more from the Saturday report:

  Japan’s national broadcaster NHK also confirmed the report saying Tokyo “is leaning toward not sending cabinet ministers to the upcoming Beijing Olympics”.

  The only officials now expected to attend are Olympics-related personnel, including Seiko Hashimoto, the former head of Tokyo’s Olympic organizing committee, the newspaper said.

  Late last month as reports began to surface suggesting that Tokyo is mulling a diplomatic boycott, Chinese officials began warning against mixing sports and politics. Beijing reminded Japanese leaders that China had “fully supported” Japan’s summer Olympics. 

  “China fully supported Japan in hosting the Tokyo Olympics” this summer, so “Japan should have basic faith,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters in late November.

  Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper reported on Saturday that senior Japanese government officials will likely skip #Beijing2022, joining the list of countries that have announced a diplomatic boycott of the game. https://t.co/2y0JU6eirv

  — William Yang (@WilliamYang120) December 11, 2021

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  The suggestion was that it would surely lead to a break down in positive relations, also coming as Japan has increasingly joined the US on the contested Taiwan issue:

  China “firmly opposes” Japan’s politicizing sports, Zhao said, adding the two Asian nations should have “important consensus on mutual support for each other’s hosting” of the Olympics.

  But at this point Japan’s government has yet to confirm a full government diplomatic boycott, which means it may just send lower officials – yet the symbolism will still be insulting enough in Beijing’s eyes.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 21:00

• Bitcoin Is Self Preservation
  Bitcoin Is Self Preservation

  Authored by Alex McShane via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  Central planning has been so pervasively normalized that whole sectors of society have become dependent on the largesse of the fiat monster. Bitcoin fixes this.

  

  All living organism share a universal behavior set called self preservation. Self preservation is the set of behaviors that ensures the survival of an organism. Bitcoin is financial self preservation. Many hold Bitcoin to increase the longevity and appreciation of their wealth and therewith their health. Buying Bitcoin is trading time now for time later. Its price appreciation and value preservation allots one more time to attend to physical and mental health needs.

  One function of Bitcoin is to release us from the tyranny of fiat money. The problem with government money by mandate is that it has no integrity, and is debased at will, indefinitely. This is true of all fiat monetary systems. Through taxation, inflation, and confiscation, the government can tightly control, as well as steal from the wealth of its citizens. Central planning has been so pervasively normalized that whole sectors of society have become dependent on the largesse of the fiat monster.

  Fear is an integral part of all organisms’ survival mechanisms. Think of a deer in the woods that bolts away from you. Pain is just as important of teacher. Pain motivates one to withdraw from dangerous and deadly situations. Most populations on the planet have suffered the abuses of fiat systems, which are often introduced slowly, acquiring power steadily, until suddenly the population and their property has been extorted by degrees.

  Bitcoin was invented to undermine and obsolete systemic monetary oppression by governments. If pain reminds us to protect our wounds until they heal, the irresponsible and corrupt actions of governments worldwide have taught Bitcoin holders and advocates to never trust another to be the wardens of our health, our wealth, or our property. Global governments’ disastrous misallocation of resources and power encourage us to avoid outsourcing money creation as well as wealth custody and management in the future.

  Bitcoin will grant many the prosperity to vote in a way that matters, with their unconfiscatable capital and with their feet. The actionable and justified response to government overreach and theft by mandated money is to exit your local fiat currency through buying Bitcoin.

  When the cause of pain is removed from a body and the body has healed, in most cases, the pain ceases. It will be a while before the world is healed of the financial and broader devastation wrought by governments, their fiat money and their central planning. Though each year Bitcoin adoption grows, and we move closer toward hyperbitcoinization.

  Many experience not only a cessation of excess financial burden when they convert to a Bitcoin standard, but they feel elated even at the prospect of work, because they can now preserve the value of their work and their time, and the value of their wealth appreciates long term through Bitcoin. They are accumulating a digital capital resource that can be preserved or reallocated at their will, without permission or fear of debasement or confiscation.

  When it comes to pain, financial or ordinary, in some cases phantom pain and fear persist despite the removal of stimulus and the body’s healing. Sometimes pain occurs in absence of any detectable stimulus, injury, or disease. In the case of individual financial security and human behavior in aggregate, fiat will always be remembered as the catalyst for the long and arduous transition to a healthy global Bitcoin standard.

  In terms of self preservation, fear can cause an organism to seek safety and even release adrenaline. Adrenaline (or epinephrine) is a hormone which acts as a neurotransmitter involved in regulating things like respiration. You can think of Bitcoin as monetary adrenaline, digital energy that can be stored anywhere and that can be spent at will. Bitcoin is a pain response through which humans have engineered their way out of centuries-old money and energy problems.

  Adrenaline plays a big part in fight-or-flight survival responses through pupil dilation, blood sugar level, output of heart, and increasing blood flow to muscles. Adrenaline is even found in some single celled organisms. In the case of Bitcoin, this monetary adrenaline can be applied to all facets of society, through permissionless transactions, and pseudonymous holdings, at any scale. Bitcoin is accessible to virtually anyone, and there is enough immutable supply that everyone on the planet can afford to hold it and deploy the world’s most robust form of purchasing power and monetary adrenaline as they choose.

  Today we have the same capacity for knowledge that they had in ancient Egypt. One major difference is that today we have engineered far more sophisticated means of self protection, and developed better means of acquisition and defense of our private property through Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a lasting digital reminder of the biological lesson of self preservation. 

  By distancing oneself from the fiat realm through Bitcoin, one can see that not only is the fiat system adversarial at all levels, but it actively does harm to the populace. You are in competition. Through Bitcoin you can at the very least least carry out your capital competitions with a transparent and immutable ruleset.

  On a biological level, the only evidence of life is change. Spreading Bitcoin adoption is the most dynamic, effective, and peaceful revolution we can have in response to fiat’s wide spread though centrally controlled oppression. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 20:30

• "We Expect A Sea Change": Morgan Stanley Admits It Was Wrong, Now Sees Liftoff In 2022 As Goldman Goes All-In With 7 Rate Hikes
  “We Expect A Sea Change”: Morgan Stanley Admits It Was Wrong, Now Sees Liftoff In 2022 As Goldman Goes All-In With 7 Rate Hikes

  At the start of the month, not long after Goldman capitulated and brought forward its first Fed rate hike forecast by one year to July 2022, virtually every Wall Street bank promptly followed in Goldman’s footsteps turning uber hawkish and expecting several rate hikes and/or accelerating tapering over the coming year. All, expect Morgan Stanley, which stubbornly refused to yield to peer pressure and continued to forecast no rate hikes in 2022 whatsoever.

  This remarkable divergence in Fed outlooks between the two most influential banks promoted us to tweet on Dec 1 that “2022 shaping up as a huge showdown between Goldman and Morgan Stanley. Former says 2, maybe 3 hikes; latter say no hikes. One will be spectacularly wrong.”

  2022 shaping up as a huge showdown between Goldman and Morgan Stanley

  Former says 2, maybe 3 hikes; latter say no hikes.

  One will be spectacularly wrong

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 1, 2021

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  Just a few days later, with inflation soaring to a fresh 39-year-high (although perhaps finally topping out), Morgan Stanley decided to gracefully and quietly tap out and this week the bank’s -chief US economist Ellen Zentner, pulled forward the bank’s rate hike path by 6 months to September 2022, acknowledging that it was wrong and admitting that there has been a “pivot in the Fed’s reaction function.”

  Even so, Morgan Stanley still remains well beyond market expectations, saying it has “even greater conviction” in its call that core inflation moves off its highs in 1Q 2022, which however further validates concerns that the Fed is engaging in a policy error and tightening into a recession. 

  Here are some more details from Zentner’s note:

  Before investors close out the year, we need to get past the FOMC’s final meeting next week, and it comes with every opportunity for  surprise. On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to move to a hawkish stance by announcing that it is doubling the pace of taper, highlighting continued inflation risks and no longer labeling high inflation as transitory, and showing a hawkish shift in the dot plot. We think this shift will shake out in a 2-hike median in 2022, followed by 3.5 hikes in 2023 and 3 hikes in 2024.

  At the end of the meeting, we think the FOMC’s median view will align more closely with ours – we look for 2 hikes in 2022, followed by 3 hikes plus a halt in reinvestments in 2023. Moreover, we expect the Fed’s median forecast for core PCE and the unemployment rate will also come in reasonably close to our own, which now has higher inflation receding to around 2.5% 4Q/4Q next year, and the unemployment rate back to its pre-pandemic low around 3.5% in 4Q22.  The incoming data on the labor market and inflation has strayed materially from the Fed’s outlook and therefore warrants what we deem to be a sea change in its stance on the appropriate path for policy.

  At the same time, Zentener also says that the timing of liftoff in the bank’s forecast is tied closely to inflation outcomes, with its base case expectation that following the current re-acceleration in inflation we have been expecting, core PCE shows some slowing beginning in February next year. The pace of this deceleration will be important in determining how much of a breather the Fed takes between the end of its asset purchases and the first rate hike.

  

  Separately, on Friday we received data on inflation for the month of November showing that on a year-over-year basis, core CPI increased to 4.9% from 4.6%. Headline CPI ran at the highest rate since 1982. Despite the alarming headlines, financial markets seemed to be relieved at the results. Why? Because, according to Morgan Stanley, for the first time in months the month-over-month increase of 0.5% was in line with expectations instead of delivering an upside surprise.

  Going back to Morgan Stanley’s mea culpa, Zentener writes that in her outlook, the biggest out-of-consensus call has been the view that core inflation will show signs of slowing in 1Q22 as pandemic-related price pressures, particularly in goods, are slowly abating. She says that today she has “even more conviction in that view” and here’s why: 

  We are seeing nascent signs that pipeline inflation pressures are easing – based on evidence from company earnings transcripts, ISM comments, Korea trade data, China’s inflation data, the Fed’s Beige Book, a department huddle with our equity analysts, and our own survey.

  While Zentener admits that these sources by no means suggest that normalization “is well under way,” but at the very least they indicate that “bottlenecks have peaked” and the chief economist expects that in a few months, “this trend will work its way through the pipeline to finished goods prices at the consumer level.” It is unclear if Morgan Stanley’s previous thesis of a huge – and deflationary – inventory glut as supply chains blockages ease,

  In parting, the Morgan Stanley economist tries to deflect some of the blame for having been wrong in its call, and says that “to be right on our Fed call for 2 hikes in 2022, not only do we have to be right on the path for core PCE, but Chair Powell has to be willing to direct attention to slowing inflation as a way of pushing back on market expectations that are now pricing in nearly 3 hikes, with a healthy probability the Fed could begin as early as March.”

  But while Morgan Stanley is at least somewhat cautious about going hawkish, Goldman no longer has any such qualms, and moments ago on Saturday afternoon, the bank went all in on its hawkish relent… and so one month after pulling forward its call for a rate hike by over a year to July 2022, the bank now says that “the FOMC is very likely to double the pace of tapering to $30bn per month at its December meeting next week, putting it on track to announce the last two tapers at the January FOMC meeting and to implement the last taper in March.” As a result, Goldman now expects the FOMC to deliver rate hikes next year in May, July, and November (vs. June, September, and December previously) and another 4 in 2023 and 2024 (spread evenly 2 and 2). Some more details from the full note, which as usual is available to professional subs.

  New information about both inflation and the labor market since the FOMC last met supports a faster taper pace and an early liftoff. Inflation has increased further as prices of durable goods and shelter have continued to rise rapidly, though wage growth has slowed since enhanced unemployment benefits expired in September. Labor market slack has diminished rapidly, roughly in line with our expectations but faster than Fed officials expected.

  Chair Powell has indicated that the FOMC is likely to retire the word “transitory” from its statement and instead explain that it thinks the current period of elevated inflation is unlikely to “leave a permanent mark” by raising long-term inflation expectations. More meaningful changes to the statement, especially to language about inflation having run persistently below 2%, are also possible.

  We expect the Summary of Economic Projections to show somewhat higher inflation and lower unemployment. Our best guess is that the dots will show 2 hikes in 2022, 3 in 2023, and 4 in 2024, for a total of 9 (vs. 0.5 / 3 / 3 and a total of 6.5 in September). We think the leadership will prefer to show only 2 hikes in 2022 for now to avoid making a more dramatic change in one step, especially at a meeting when the FOMC is already doubling the taper pace. But if Powell is comfortable showing 3 hikes next year, then we would expect others to join him in a decisive shift in the dots in that direction.

  In conclusion, Goldman’s forecast calls for 3 hikes in 2022 (vs 2 for Morgan Stanley) and then 2 per year starting in 2023. The bank also expects two hikes per year starting in 2023 because like MS, it also expects inflation to fall to moderately above 2% and growth to slow to just above potential by then.

  That said, Goldman’s Jan Hatzius says that he “inferred from the September dots that Powell and Governor Brainard envision hiking twice per year in that environment, a slower pace than last cycle that we assume reflects the new monetary policy framework.” However, the bank will watch the December dots to see if they still view that as the default pace.

  Or, one can just look at what the market is saying and the conclusion there is clear: with the 4Y1Y – 2Y1Y curve inverting…

  

  … as STIR traders now expect rates in 2023 to be higher than in 2025, the verdict is simple: not only is the Fed engaging in policy error, hiking into an economic slowdown – with inflation having already peaked, someone has yet to explain to us how monetary policy will help alleviate supply chains, for example – but it will then proceed to rapidly cut rates (perhaps to negative) while injecting trillions more in QE once markets crash (amid the coming rate hike panic detailed meticulously by BofA CIO Michael Hartnett) to reflect the Fed’s panicked actions (which an objective observer could say reek suspiciously of political pandering to appease Joe Biden who is clearly freaking out about his collapsing rating and the impact inflation is having on it) some time in late 2022, just before the midterms.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 20:00

• California Is Hiding $300 Billion A Year In Spending From The Public, Claims It's For The People's Own Good
  California Is Hiding $300 Billion A Year In Spending From The Public, Claims It’s For The People’s Own Good

  By Adam Andrzejewski. the CEO/Founder of OpenTheBooks.com; originally published on Forbes

  In 2018, California resident Steven Childs wanted to know how much the state paid to a single vendor over a five-year period. Instead of the data, California Controller Betty Yee sent him an invoice for $1,250. Childs asked more questions and the Controller’s chief counsel, Rick Chivaro, admitted the state held electronic records and “warrant records” akin to “maintaining a checking account online.”

  Today, in a Sacramento superior court, the controller denies having a checkbook and claims the warrant register doesn’t contain vendor information. The Golden State is the only state in the nation not to produce state spending under open records laws.

  Our organization at OpenTheBooks.com is battling the controller in this case over our freedom of information request for the entire line-by-line state vendor checkbook. When the controller rejected our request, we sued.

  Yee is claiming her office “couldn’t locate” a single payment. No, that’s not fake news, or a comedy punch line. California’s top financial officer actually argued this in court recently, despite admitting she paid 50 million individual bills last year.

  Furthermore, the controller now claims that transparency itself is an “undue burden.” She swears it’s necessary to take 72,000 work hours to go through each of the 50 million payments by hand.  

  Here are some of the arguments Yee is making to stonewall our request:

  • “In order to produce checkbook level data as requested … staff would need to manually review the estimated 50 million transactions …” (Emphasis added.) 
  • “The public interest served by not disclosing the requested records and data clearly outweighs the public interest in disclosure. As such, the [State Controller’s Office] is relieved of any obligation to produce the requested records.” (Emphasis added.)  

  Do we have a representative republic if the representatives get to hide all transactions from the people—and claim that it’s for their own good? 

  Controller Yee acts like she has something to hide. Here are just a couple items we learned during discovery about how taxpayer dollars are spent by the controller:

  1. Using paper and string. An estimated 200,000 bills — submitted only on paper — were paid during the fiscal year. Incredibly, the justification for each payment contains even more paper — between 15-20 pages and is bound and physically tied together with string. It takes 7-10 minutes to deconstruct, copy, and reconstruct each file.

  2. State agencies submit employee reimbursements and supplemental payments to the controller without payee information. The controller provides the money with no accountability and no auditing.  

  The controller makes state payments, is compelled by the state constitution to audit them, and therefore must be able to track those payments. Any responsible entity that makes a payment can track the payment. It is the minimum standard in any basic accounting system.

  In California, the controller has frequently blamed their outdated systems that store records on paper, microfiche, and electronic tape. Yee even admitted that couriers with manila folders run demands for payments from state agencies. Is this ancient Rome?

  Yee’s argument to hide state expenditures mirrors those advanced by then-Wyoming state auditor Cynthia Cloud, a Republican, in 2018.  

  Cloud said it would take “years and years” to produce a state checkbook, but after we sued, new state auditor, Kristi Racines, also a Republican, produced seven years of state checkbook spending in her first 30 days. 

  In 2012, we sued then-Illinois comptroller Judy Baar Topinka. Topinka, also a Republican, said “there is no magical state checkbook.” We reminded her that the state doesn’t have magical taxpayers either. Within nine months, we received records of line-by-line state spending spanning seven years. 

  We’ve seen Yee’s excuses before, and they’re just that—excuses.

  Now, Yee admits as much. The controller’s estimate for the hours necessary to dig up the bills, as provided in her sworn “good-faith estimate,” total 71,548 hours. Since controller employees work 176 hours per month, we estimate that’s about 34 full-time employees at $70 an hour, or $5 million per year. 

  And, there’s every reason to believe that the “estimate” is grossly inflated by tens of thousands of hours and millions of dollars.

  So, why wasn’t transparency already mandated? The California state government has 269,000 employees and a $21 billion payroll. The controller’s office itself has 1,382 employees for a $101 million payroll.

  Since 2005, California invested $1 billion into FI$Cal, an accounting and transparency platform. However, 20 major units of state government will never be in the system or are deferred for years to come.

  Last year, our organization filed 40,500 Freedom of Information Act requests — the most in American history. We captured vendor expenditure “checkbooks” in the other 49 states, within 13,000 local governments, and at the federal level. Citizens can see all vendor payments — in addition to 25 million public employee salaries and retirement pension payments — on our website, OpenTheBooks.com.  

  It should not take a subpoena or a lawsuit to force open the state payment records.

  Since 2013, our organization at OpenTheBooks.com has invited the California controller to join the transparency revolution and produce line-by-line state spending. Today, our lawyers at non-profit public interest firm Cause of Action, in Washington, D.C. represent us. 

  It is time to let the sun shine on California state spending.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 19:30

• Pfizer Jab Is Only 23% Effective Against Omicron, South African Study Finds
  Pfizer Jab Is Only 23% Effective Against Omicron, South African Study Finds

  A few days ago, researchers in South Africa shared data from a preliminary study showing that the Pfizer vaccine is less effective at blocking the omicron variant than earlier variants like beta and delta. Now, the team is telling us exactly how much less effective the vaccine is.

  According to the same data gleaned from the blood plasma taken from 12 patients who tested positive for omicron, the team found that a two-shot course of Pfizer’s vaccine has just 22.5% efficacy against symptomatic infection with the omicron variant, though it can thwart severe disease, according to laboratory experiments in South Africa, according to Bloomberg.

  The data comes courtesy of a team of researchers at the Africa Health Research Institute in Durban.

  

  Though data has been pouring out about omicron, and sometimes individual studies reach opposing findings, the general consensus is that omicron will be able to more easily evade protection afforded from the first generation of vaccines – however, the scientists say that people will still be protected against severe disease and death. But it matters less anyway, since any patient – even an unvaccinated one – has less to fear from omicron. The reason being is that it’s believed to cause a more mild, “flu-like” infection. As we’ve said before, when you hear politicians like Joe Biden talking about an omicron takeover as if it were already a certainty (only a couple thousand cases have been confirmed around the world, if that), it’s because they wish it were true.

  The same is true for the CEOs of Moderna and Pfizer, who have been out sharing FUD about omicron with the news media on an almost non-stop rotation. They say their companies can have a new batch of vaccines available in 90-100 days. It’s almost as if they’ve been waiting for the opportunity, and if you look back at their comments, it’s clear that they have.

  Still, in the US, the CDC has confirmed that only 1 of 43 patients infected with the variant has been hospitalized.

  And luckily for both the US, and developing countries that haven’t been able to obtain many vaccines, omicron shouldn’t be more mild. Plus, there are already signs that the current mostly delta driven wave is actually slowing, despite local and national leaders’ carping, followed – in many cases – by tighter restrictions on mask-wearing and (in President Biden’s case) growing pressure for mandatory vaccinations.

  The researchers who published this latest data also published some earlier findings about omicron that were of interest to the international community. Of course, their data will be used by Big Pharma (and then governments) to justify mandating boosters.

  Fortunately for the public, cases might soon finally drop off, a process that could be aided by an omicron takeover from delta.

  One engineer and independent forecaster who has been closely following the pandemic recently shared a model illustrating how cases might actually be already leveling off for good in Gauteng,the South Africa city seen as the epicenter of the omicron wave (even though the first case was reportedly discovered in a patient from neighboring Botswana).

  

  He also projected that the death toll in an omicron-takeover scenario would likely be much, much lower than it would be if delta continued to dominate.

  

  If this all comes to pass, it would be just in time, too, since Jerome Powell has clearly gotten “the tap” that it’s time to hit the gas on unwinding the Fed’s unprecedented monetary experiment as prices surge in a manner that’s reminiscent of the early 1980s.

  Around the world, the appetite for extended lockdowns has clearly diminished. How long until the rest of these restrictions are finally abandoned?

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 19:00

• US Shale Slams Biden's Oil Policies
  US Shale Slams Biden’s Oil Policies

  By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com,

  U.S. shale producers have been disappointed with the Biden Administration’s policies regarding the oil and gas industry for nearly a year now, and they voiced their disappointment, once again, at this week’s World Petroleum Congress in Houston.  

  

  While the U.S. Administration was calling repeatedly on OPEC+ to pump more oil to stop the rally in U.S. gasoline prices, which hit a seven-year high a few months ago, it failed to reach out to domestic producers first for more supply, shale executives and industry associations say. 

  Instead of asking OPEC+ and counties like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia to pump more oil, the Administration should have laid the foundations for a faster recovery of U.S. oil production, which producers curtailed last year in response to the crash in demand and oil prices, executives say.

  Not that everyone would have listened. The oil companies have now switched to a “shareholder returns mode” from “record production mode” to finally reward investors after years of splurging on record production and seeing little (or in many cases, negative) cash flows. 

  Shale executives started to express their criticism of the Biden Administration weeks ago, when officials openly pleaded with OPEC+ to increase supply to relieve prices at the pump in the United States. 

  Now many of those executives gathered in Houston to reiterate their view that “you should have called us first.”

  “Enormous Profits”

  “[T]he energy industry is making enormous profits. They’re back up to above where they were before the pandemic started. So, they have taken advantage of that moment — the profits — to be able to engage in shareholder buybacks, for example,” U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said last month when President Joe Biden announced plans for a release of 50 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in a bid to lower gasoline prices. 

  “But we want to encourage them to increase supply. We want supply to be increased both inside the United States and around the world so that we can reduce the pressures at the pump,” Granholm added. 

  The U.S. shale patch, however, is not racing to boost supply too much. One reason is the still widely prevalent capital discipline. But another is wariness and uncertainty about the Biden Administration’s policies toward oil and gas, and said Administration’s calls on OPEC+ to pump more while imposing restrictive measures on drilling on U.S. federal land.

  Pioneer Natural Resources CEO: “They have not called me”

  “Their first response was to call Opec and ask them to pump more oil. They have not called me,” Pioneer Natural Resources’ CEO Scott Sheffield told the Financial Times on the sidelines of the Houston energy conference. “And we’re the largest Permian producer,” Sheffield added. 

  Pioneer Natural Resources and many other public oil and gas producers cannot change capital budgets and drilling plans overnight, especially now that they are scrutinized by investors demanding higher returns. 

  The U.S. shale has not been happy with the Administration’s continued engagement with OPEC+ on oil supply, while there is such—and it is abundant—in America. 

  “I think first you, you stay home, you ask your friends, and you ask your neighbors to do it. And then if we can’t do it, you call some other countries,” Occidental’s CEO Vicki Hollub told CNBC last month.

  U.S. Producers Grapple With Uncertainties Beyond Oil Prices

  The shale patch is keeping disciplined spending because of their changed priority to return cash to investors first and because of the high uncertainties on the global oil market with oversupply looming early next year and uncertain impact of Omicron (or other) COVID variants on demand. But U.S. oil producers also face heightened uncertainty with this Administration, which pushes for renewable energy and looks to impose more restrictive policies on the fossil fuels industry. 

  When the Biden Administration intensified calls on OPEC+ to boost production to alleviate surging gasoline prices in the U.S., the American Exploration and Production Council said at the end of October, “The worst thing an Administration can do to energy prices is restrict supply by implementing policies that make it harder to produce energy.” 

  The Administration also called for an investigation into whether oil companies are allegedly colluding to make gasoline prices the highest in seven years. 

  In a comment following President Biden’s renewed request for the Federal Trade Commission to investigate rising gas prices, Frank Macchiarola, Senior Vice President for Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs at the American Petroleum Institute (API), said in mid-November: 

  “This is a distraction from the fundamental market shift that is taking place and the ill-advised government decisions that are exacerbating this challenging situation. Demand has returned as the economy comes back and is outpacing supply. Further impacting the imbalance is the continued decision from the administration to restrict access to America’s energy supply and cancel important infrastructure projects.” 

  “Rather than launching investigations on markets that are regulated and closely monitored on a daily basis or pleading with OPEC to increase supply, we should be encouraging the safe and responsible development of American-made oil and natural gas,” Macchiarola added.   

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 18:30

• 70 Dead In Kentucky As Biden Calls Tornado Outbreak "One Of The Largest In History"
  70 Dead In Kentucky As Biden Calls Tornado Outbreak “One Of The Largest In History”

  Update (1812ET): Late Friday, deadly tornados touched down in at least six states — Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

  The most intense damage I have found in #Mayfield. The entire path in the town is less than 2% of the total path length. Homes with only slabs remaining. #Tornado #wxtwitter pic.twitter.com/nXxoxNBVhY

  — WxChasing- Brandon Clement (@bclemms) December 11, 2021

  The worst devastation was in Kentucky, where 70 people were confirmed killed, and the death toll could jump to 100 in the coming hours, if not days. 

  WATCH: Viral video shows tornado that hit Sacramento, Kentucky – ABCpic.twitter.com/ln3MzUFND6

  — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) December 11, 2021

  Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky said, “this has been the most devastating tornado event in our state’s history.” 

  @SpectrumNews1KY The sun is setting on the downtown Mayfield tornado destruction. pic.twitter.com/XfRcTVrhWg

  — Diamond Palmer | Spectrum News 1 (@diamondpalmertv) December 11, 2021

  On Saturday evening, President Biden said the disaster was “one of the largest tornado outbreaks in our history.” 

  “It’s a tragedy. And we still don’t know how many lives are lost and the full extent of the damage,” Biden said. He promised federal aid to the six states listed above that were affected by the severe storms. 

  NEW: Pres. Biden says he is “monitoring” the devastating tornadoes that impacted the midwest and south “very closely.”

  “This is likely one of the largest tornado outbreaks in our history.” https://t.co/emO1xnf6pi pic.twitter.com/3nAArDV71C

  — ABC News (@ABC) December 11, 2021

  It’s only a matter of time before the Biden administration blames climate change.

  * * * 

  Update (1040ET): Mayfield, Kentucky has woken up to absolute devastation across large swaths of the state following the major storm which has left, at the least, dozens dead and hundreds injured.

  Devastating to wake up to this scene in your home state.

  Many great people in Kentucky will need our help this holiday season.

  For now, we pray for the families dealing with unthinkable loss, for @GovAndyBeshear team’s leadership, and all responders.

  pic.twitter.com/T2Nosj69ZX

  — Andy Swan (@AndySwan) December 11, 2021

  Mayfield, KY at daybreak – drone.
  The town has basically been flattened, no words.

  Video: LiveStormsMedia#Mayfield #Kentucky #Tornado #tornadoemergency #severewx #SevereWeather #tornadoemergency #tornadooutbreak #longtracktornado pic.twitter.com/DBadxT9pSD

  — AC 😷 (@ACinPhilly) December 11, 2021

  Horrific sight at first light from #tornado damage in #Mayfield Kentucky. #Wxtwitter pic.twitter.com/KSjTpko9nz

  — WxChasing- Brandon Clement (@bclemms) December 11, 2021

  BREAKING: Kentucky Governor reports “mass casualties” after building collapse at a candle factory; says more than 50 people are likely deadpic.twitter.com/kRyLKcatNN

  — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) December 11, 2021

  #Mayfield is decimated. @SpectrumNews1KY #kentucky #Tornado pic.twitter.com/3KosFJwrJ0

  — Jonathon Gregg (@JohnnyGregg) December 11, 2021

  Tonight we are looking at potentially the first quad-state tornado in US history which has torn through Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and now Kentucky. pic.twitter.com/FvAfwZWIGk

  — US StormWatch (@US_Stormwatch) December 11, 2021

  *  *  *

  Authored by Lorenz Duschamps via The Epoch Times,

  A major storm system ripped through multiple U.S. states on Friday, hitting a candle factory in Kentucky with more than 100 employees still inside the building at the time a tornado struck.

  The series of U.S. storms started early on Friday and are already blamed for multiple deaths and injuries across parts of the Midwest and South.

  Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said at a news conference that it is going to be “some of the worst tornado damage that we’ve seen for a long time,” calling the weather event a “mass casualty” incident.

  “We believe our death toll from this event will exceed 50 Kentuckians, probably end up closer to 70 to 100 lost lives,” Beshear said.

   “There were about 110 people in [the factory] at the time that the tornado hit it,” he added.

  Beshear also announced the deployment of about 180 guardsmen, including search and extraction, as the governor declared a state of emergency and requested President Joe Biden a federal emergency declaration.

  Kentucky emergency management director Michael Dossett said at the same briefing that the storm appears to be the first quad-state tornado storm in the state’s history.

  “This tornado event may surpass the one in 1974 … as one of the most deadliest in Kentucky’s history,” Dossett said, adding that this will be “one of the darkest days in the state’s history.”

  The primary tornado was on the ground for 200-miles, Beshear said and would be the longest traveled of any tornado in the state for nearly 100 years.

  Meanwhile, significant damage has also been reported in other parts of the U.S., including at an Amazon fulfillment center in Illinois, where a wall about the length of a football field collapsed, along with the roof above it. Tornadoes also ripped through Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

  

  Emergency vehicles stage outside an Amazon fulfillment center after it was heavily damaged when a strong thunderstorm moved through the area, in Edwardsville, Ill., on Dec. 10, 2021. (Jeff Roberson/AP Photo)

  At least 100 emergency vehicles descended upon the Amazon warehouse near Edwardsville, about 25 miles east of St. Louis. It wasn’t immediately clear how many people were hurt, but one person was flown by helicopter to a hospital.

  #BREAKING

  Law enforcement has confirmed several people are dead as a result of the #AmazonWarehouse collapse in Edwardsville, IL.

  I’ll have live reports on @KMOV at 5 and 6 this morning.

  Photo credit: St. Clair Co. EMA pic.twitter.com/vYnBLw7yqi

  — Jenna Rae (@journalismjenna) December 11, 2021

  Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said in a statement that he has contacted the mayor in Edwardsville to request if they need any state resources.

  Amazon spokesperson Richard Rocha said in a written statement on Friday that the company’s top priority now is “the safety and well-being of our employees and partners.”

  “We’re assessing the situation and will share additional information when it’s available,” Rocha added.

  The Amazon distribution center is partially collapsed after being hit by a tornado in Edwardsville, Ill., on Dec. 10, 2021.

  Edwardsville Police Chief Mike Fillback said several people who were in the building were taken by bus to the police station in nearby Pontoon Beach for evaluation. By early Saturday, rescue crews were still sorting through the rubble to determine if anyone was trapped inside.

  “Please be patient with us. Our fire personnel are doing everything they can to reunite everyone with their loved ones,” Fillback said on KMOV-TV.

  Three storm-related deaths were confirmed in Tennessee, said Dean Flener, spokesman for the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency. Two of the deaths occurred in Lake County, and the third was in Obion County—both in the northwestern corner of the state.

  A tornado struck the Monette Manor nursing home in Arkansas on Friday night, killing one person and trapping 20 people inside as the building collapsed, Craighead County Judge Marvin Day told The Associated Press.

  Five people had serious injuries, and a few others had minor ones, he said. The nursing home has 86 beds.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 18:12

• Stung By The Semi Shortage, Chinese Auto Sales Fall For The Seventh Straight Month
  Stung By The Semi Shortage, Chinese Auto Sales Fall For The Seventh Straight Month

  Vehicle sales in China fell for the seventh straight month in November, according to newly released data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) on Friday.

  Sales were down 9.1% from the year prior as the industry continued to struggle with what is now becoming a year’s long semiconductor shortage. 

  The country posted total sales of 2.52 million vehicles in November, once again led by sales of new energy and electric vehicles, according to Reuters.

  Total new energy vehicles grew 121% to 450,000 units from the year prior, helped along by the government pushing to further rein in pollution. New energy vehicles include battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, Reuters wrote.

  

  CAAM spokesperson Chen Shihua commented: “Consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles continues to rise. The market has shifted from policy-motivated to demand-driven.”

  Among the top sellers in China were Tesla, who sold 52,859 vehicles (which we highlighted analyst analysis of days ago) and Nio, who sold a record 10,878 cars last month. Xpeng sold 15,613 vehicles and Volkswagen sold over 14,000 of its ID series electric vehicles. 

  While still marking the seventh month lower, November’s sales beat CAAM’s expectations. While semiconductor supply is going to continue to be lumpy, power shortages in China that interrupted production throughout the month are finally beginning to ease. 

  Recall, we wrote in September that the heads of many auto manufacturers have suggested that the semi shortage “may not just disappear” in 2022.

  Volkswagen Chief Executive Officer Herbert Diess said on Bloomberg TV in September: “Probably we will remain in shortages for the next months or even years because semiconductors are in high demand. The internet of things is growing and the capacity ramp-up will take time. It will be probably a bottleneck for the next months and years to come.”

  Ola Kallenius at Daimler and Oliver Zipse of BMW also added to the pessimism. Kallenius said that the shortage “may not entirely go away” in 2022, according to Bloomberg. Zipse said there could be another 6 to 12 months left in the shortage.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 18:00

• Pennsylvania Supreme Court Ends School Mask Mandate
  Pennsylvania Supreme Court Ends School Mask Mandate

  Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times,

  The Pennsylvania Supreme Court Friday affirmed a Commonwealth Court decision that said Acting Health Secretary Alison Beam did not have the authority to issue a mask mandate for everyone indoors at schools and childcare centers.

  

  It means, effective immediately, school mask mandates are no longer mandatory, although many schools have a local rule that students who wish to wear a mask may still do so.

  The suit was brought by Pennsylvania Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman, a Republican who is running for governor. It was filed personally, as a parent, along with other parents, and not as part of a Senate action.

  “With today’s ruling, the power for parents and local leaders to make health and safety decisions in our schools is restored,” Corman said in a prepared statement.

  “That power comes with an obligation to review the facts and act in the best interests of our communities—which is why legislative leaders sent a letter to Governor Tom Wolf yesterday to reconvene the COVID-19 Vaccine Task Force. I encourage all stakeholders to review the needs and conditions in our communities to make the best choices for our kids.”

  Wolf recently announced he would return masking decisions over to local school leaders on Jan. 17, so some were surprised when the state’s Department of Health appealed the Commonwealth Court’s decision and continued fighting for the mandatory mask mandate.

  While the state battled in court to keep masks on kids, on Dec. 6, educators gathered without students and appeared unconcerned about masking.

  Secretary of Education Noe Ortega announced that Elizabeth Raff, an educator at Penn Manor School District in Lancaster County, was named the 2022 Pennsylvania Teacher of the Year.

  The announcement was made during the Standards Aligned System Institute, the Pennsylvania Department of Education’s annual professional development conference. Photographs from the event, provided by the state, show teachers and state employees gathered without social distancing and not wearing masks.

  Raff teaches sixth grade English language arts and social studies at Pequea Elementary School. She was chosen from among 12 finalists. She will travel the state, meet and collaborate with other educators, and will represent Pennsylvania in next year’s National Teacher of the Year competition.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 17:30

• Here's How Reserve Currencies Have Evolved Over 120 Years
  Here’s How Reserve Currencies Have Evolved Over 120 Years

  Over the last 120 years, the popularity of different reserve currencies have ebbed and flowed, reflecting the shifting fortunes of leading global economies.

  For example, in the year 1900, the U.S. dollar and pound sterling made up 0% and 62% of global reserves respectively. But, fast forward to 2020, and Visual Capitalist’s Aran Ali notes, the pound now represents just 4.7% of global currency reserves, while the U.S. dollar stands at nearly 60%.

  Today’s motion graphic from James Eagle looks at the year-over-year change in currency reserves as a portion of total reserves, spread across 120 years.

  What is a Reserve Currency?

  A reserve currency is a large quantity of currency held in “reserve” by monetary authorities like central banks.

  Currencies are often held in reserve in preparation for investments and transactions, among other things. Our vast global trade system, which is approaching $20 trillion in value, means plenty of currencies are always needed in reserve. In fact, an estimated $5 trillion in currency swaps hands every single day.

  Here are some reasons that currency reserves are held:

  • Exchange rate stability for the domestic currency

  • To ensures liquidity in times of crisis

  • To diversify central bank portfolios, which can reduce risk and improve credit ratings

  All things equal, countries benefit economically from greater demand for their respective currencies.

  The Rise and Fall of Reserve Currencies

  Some economists argue that the demand for currencies in the long run revolves around the economic relevance of a country. In general, the larger and more powerful a nation’s economy is, the greater the network effect, and the more interlinked they are to the global economy. Thus, the greater demand there is to hold their currency in reserve.

  The last 120 years of currency reserve data shows some support for this claim. For example, Japan’s economy hit a peak in terms of its relative share of global GDP in the early 1990s, just before the effects of the Lost Decade were felt. Subsequently, their peak as a reserve currency was around the same horizon, at 9.4% in 1990.

  America’s Era of Dominance

  Due to the economic strength of the United States in the post-WWII era, the dollar is what economists call a vehicle currency.

  This means many non-dollar economies still choose to engage in international transactions using the dollar. These smaller and less accepted currencies are often converted to U.S. dollars before proceeding with any business or trade dealings. This is why, although Asian economies tend to have neighboring states as their top trade partners, they still engage in a massive portion of these transactions with the U.S. greenback as the currency of choice.

  Here are some facts that further exemplify the strength and power of the U.S. dollar:

  • More than 65 countries peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar

  • Five U.S. territories and a number of sovereign countries, such as Ecuador and Panama, use it as an official currency of exchange

  • Around 90% of all Forex trading involves the U.S. dollar

  Additionally, the dollar is often seen as a haven in times of extreme uncertainty and tumult. Given its status as the world’s reserve currency, it can be perceived as less risky and can withstand economic shock to a greater degree relative to other currencies.

  New Challengers to the Dollar

  In the not too distant past, the U.S. displaced the UK economically and as the world’s reserve currency. Today, the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, based on GDP growth.

  China is on the rise, having already displaced the U.S. as the EU’s top trade partner. With projections for China to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy before 2030 in nominal terms, could a new global reserve currency emerge?

  Remember, nothing lasts forever…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 17:00

• Kellogg Plans To Permanently Replace 1,400 Striking Workers
  Kellogg Plans To Permanently Replace 1,400 Striking Workers

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  Kellogg plans to permanently replace some 1,400 workers who have been striking since October, the company announced this week.

  

  Kellogg and the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers, and Grain Millers International Union failed to reach a new contract agreement, leading to the planned change.

  “We have made every effort to reach a fair agreement, including making six offers to the union throughout negotiations, all which have included wage and benefits increases for every employee. It appears the union created unrealistic expectations for our employees,” Chris Hood, president of Kellogg North America, said in a recent statement.

  “The prolonged work stoppage has left us no choice but to hire permanent replacement employees in positions vacated by striking workers. These are great jobs and posting for permanent positions helps us find qualified people to fill them. While certainly not the result we had hoped for, we must take the necessary steps to ensure business continuity. We have an obligation to our customers and consumers to continue to provide the cereals that they know and love,” he added.

  The strike started because of disputes over pay, benefits, and the prospect of more jobs being moved to Mexico. Workers are striking at factories in four states: Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.

  The union said workers “overwhelmingly voted to reject the tentative agreement” and that the strike would continue.

  

  Striking Kellogg’s workers stand outside the company’s cereal plant in Omaha, Neb., on Dec. 2, 2021. (Josh Funk/AP Photo)

  Just days earlier, Kellogg said a tentative deal was reached, but that workers would have to vote to approve it.

  The plan to replace the striking workers permanently drew criticism from President Joe Biden, who called himself “deeply troubled” by it.

  “Permanently replacing striking workers is an existential attack on the union and its members’ jobs and livelihoods. I strongly support legislation that would ban that practice,” he said on Friday.

  Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) also offered support for the workers, writing on Twitter, “If we seek to be a democratic society with broadly shared prosperity, workers must be free to organize and bargain—and, yes, strike—without fear of losing their jobs.”

  Democrats and several Republicans want to pass a bill called the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, which would strengthen penalties for employers that violate workers’ rights and enhance workers’ ability to boycott and strike.

  For example, the bill would amend the National Labor Relations Act and make it an unfair labor practice to permanently replace an employee who participates in a strike.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 16:30

• Taiwan Investigating Whether Mice Can Transmit Covid To Humans After Bitten Lab Employee Tests Positive
  Taiwan Investigating Whether Mice Can Transmit Covid To Humans After Bitten Lab Employee Tests Positive

  As if the Covid hysteria being pushed by the media needed any more fodder for the flame, Taiwan is now in the process of investigating whether or not a bite by a mouse in a laboratory may have transmitted Covid to an employee.

  The incident involves a woman who worked at Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s top research institute, according to RT. She was diagnosed with Covid last month after health authorities confirmed she had been bitten twice by mice carrying the virus.

  While it is technically still unknown whether the virus came from the bite, RT notes that the country’s health minister, Chen Shih-chung said the: “possibility of infection from the workplace is higher because we have zero confirmed infections in the community.”

  

  The employee had been vaccinated with Moderna’s vaccine and also had a record of great bio-security, the report says. About 100 people were in close contact with her – they are now in quarantine. 

  The incident stands out because Taiwan has one of the world’s lowest Covid infection rates given its 23 million person population. It has recorded only 16,704 Covid infections and 848 deaths to date, the report says. 

  While cats and dogs have also been found to carry the infection, “there is no evidence that infected pets can pass Covid on to humans,” RT concludes.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 16:00

• Inflation Surges Near 40-Year High, Wages Aren't Keeping Up
  Inflation Surges Near 40-Year High, Wages Aren’t Keeping Up

  Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

  According to new data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, price inflation in November rose to the highest level recorded in nearly 40 years. According to the consumer price index for November, year-over-year price inflation rose to 6.8 percent. It hasn’t been that high since June 1982 when the growth rate was at 7.2 percent.

  

  November’s increase was up from October’s year-over-year increase of 6.2 percent. And it was well up from November 2020’s year-over-year increase of 1.13 percent.

  

  This surge in price inflation comes only a week after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell backtracked on earlier comments dismissing the threat of price inflation, and suggested previous attempts to define recent inflation as “transitory” wasn’t quite accurate. Declaring last week that it was “a good time to retire the word,” Powell continued his pivot to addressing the danger of inflation “becoming entrenched.”

  It’s unclear to what degree inflation might already be entrenched, but year-over-year growth in the CPI has been over five percent for the past six months—and on a clear upward trajectory.

  At the same time, inflation is taking a bite out of workers’ purchasing power. November’s numbers on average hourly earnings suggest that inflation is erasing the gains made in workers’ earnings. During November 2021, average hourly earnings increased 4.8 percent, year over year. But with inflation at 6.9 percent, earnings clearly aren’t keeping up:

  

  Source: BLS: Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls; Consumer price index.

  Looking at this gap, we find that real earnings growth has been negative for the past eight months, coming in at negative 2.1 percent year-over-year growth for November 2021. November was the eighth month in a row for negative growth in earnings.

  

  Source: BLS: Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls; Consumer price index.

  Moreover, according to the Conference Board, US salaries are growing at a rate of approximately 3 percent this year.

  Combined with November’s unemployment rate of 4.2 percent, November’s inflation growth puts the US misery index at 10.82. That’s the highest level since June of this year, and similar to the misery index levels experienced when the unemployment rate surged in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

  

  In addition to CPI inflation, asset-price inflation will likely continue to be troublesome for consumers as well. For example, according to the Federal Housing and Finance Agency, home price growth has surged in recent months, with year-over-year growth now coming in at 16.4 percent.

  Don’t Expect Much from the Fed

  Politically, there is now clearly pressure on the Fed to “do something” about inflation. In addition to inflation’s impacts on earnings, inflation already has the potential to impact corporate profits as well. Nonetheless, today’s inflation news did not send the Dow down, as inflation fears were probably already priced in following Powell’s comments last week on rising inflation and his statements on the potential for speeding up the Fed’s ultra-slow tapering process:

  In testimony before a Senate panel on Nov. 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tipped the warning that the central bank would discuss speeding the taper of its $120 billion monthly bond purchases at the December meetings. His comments followed a parade of Fed speakers, who all suggested the central bank could end the program sooner than the current timeline of June 2022.

  But just how much will the Fed really scale back QE ? Yes, inflation can impact profits, but scaling back QE can also be a big problem for asset prices. The Fed has proven to be extremely cautious on this latter front. Even if the Fed speeds up this tapering process, it will still be a stretch to describe the Fed’s posture as anything approaching “hawkish.” With the current plan, the Fed may end new asset purcahases in 22022, but its portfolio will still be approaching $9 trillion and there are no apparent plans to cut the size of the portfolio.

  It’s unlikely the Fed will seriously contemplate selling any sizable number of assets any time soon. For one, the Fed will still face pressure from the administration and Congress to prop up demand (and thus push down interest rates) for Treasurys. 

  In spite of all this enduring Fed caution, some analysists on Wall Street are trying to claim that the economy is red hot. Jim Cramer, for example is now claiming the US is on the edge of a new Roaring 20s. After all, new unemployment claims are remarkably low, and the employment situation is seemingly wonderful. But as investor Sven Henrich points out, “If you went back in time to any period & told people that in 2021 with the lowest claims in 50 years, record job openings, 8% GDP growth & 6.7% CPI the Fed is not only still running QE & zero rates but is refusing to raise rates you’d get locked up in the loony bin.”

  But why can’t the Fed see how great things are, and why isn’t it therefore raising the target fed funds rate and dumping its assets? If the economy is roaring to life, demand for these assets should be abundant.

  In many ways, the current situation with the Fed is just a continuation of what we saw during the Yellen and Bernanke years. After 2010, there was frequent talk of how the economy was growing and doing well, yet the Fed only dared engage in slight tightening of monetary policy beginning in late 2016. Today, there’s apparently still little enthusiasm for any sudden moves, lest Wall Street get spooked. The Fed may talk like it’s concerned about consumer inflation, but it’s shown it’s much more committed to keeping asset prices high, and that precludes any significant effort at reining in inflation. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 15:30

• Iran Warns Against Reported US-Israeli Drills Prepping Attack On Nuke Sites
  Iran Warns Against Reported US-Israeli Drills Prepping Attack On Nuke Sites

  On Saturday a top Iranian military official warned Tel Aviv and Washington against planned-for joint military drills that would simulate attacks on Iran. Reuters earlier in the week reported that Israeli Defense Minister Benjamin Gantz and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had met to discuss possible joint ‘counter-Iran’ exercises, with Israeli media reports suggesting they already might be taking place.

  “Providing conditions for military commanders to test Iranian missiles with real targets will cost the aggressors a heavy price,” the unnamed military official was cited in state media as saying.

  US officials have lately described the Biden administration has a ‘plan B’ in place should Vienna negotiations fail to produce any breakthrough – which suggests even more sanctions but also possible military strike options against Iran nuclear facilities. Some in the administration worry that this occasional “mowing the grass” will in the end to little to deter Iran’s program – instead they fear it could only hasten Tehran’s pursuit of a bomb.

  

  Currently the concern is that Iran may soon reach uranium enrichment and centrifuge capabilities that cannot be reversed. “Iran has been enriching uranium up to 20-percent purity with 166 advanced machines at its Fordow plant, the International Atomic Energy Agency said,” The Hill noted on Saturday.

  Days ago, on Thursday, the Pentagon was pressed by reporters in its daily briefing over the reports of joint Israel-US training exercises to take out Iran’s facilities. 

  “I know there’s interest in a certain Reuters report,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said. “I will tell you this, we routinely conduct exercises and training with our Israeli counterparts and I have nothing to announce to or speak to or point to or speculate about today.”

  Also on Saturday a bombshell New York Times report revealed that Israel has been consulting with the United States over covert strikes on Iranian facilities. The White House is believed to have ‘green lighted’ some of these attacks.

  The report also includes confirmation that Biden has ordered military strike plans drawn up: “In an effort to close the gap, American officials let out word this week that two months ago, Mr. Biden asked his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, to review the Pentagon’s revised plan to take military action if the diplomatic effort collapsed.”

  10/ Third element, timed with visit of Israeli defense delegation to Washington today, is reported planning for “break glass in case of emergency” military option 👇https://t.co/qQ1LnGcKHH

  — Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) December 9, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This means that if Vienna talks collapse in total failure, it won’t be long before the world witnesses new fireworks in the Middle East, between Iran and Israel. Additionally, it’s likely that Israel’s target list includes further locations in Syria, and possibly even Lebanon against Hezbollah, or on pro-Iran militia units in Iraq.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 12/11/2021 – 15:00

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• Ukrainian Crisis: Are We On The Verge Of WWIII Or Pax Multipolarity?
  Ukrainian Crisis: Are We On The Verge Of WWIII Or Pax Multipolarity?

  Authored by Tim Kirby via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  The highpoint in the Ukrainian crisis and the big visits by Nuland to Moscow and Austin to Kiev might actually be attempts by Washington to make lemons out of lemonade…

  

  The Mainstream Media Eye of Sauron has turned its horrid gaze to the Ukraine. This is always cause for concern because it indicates that this is what the elites want America to be focusing on. This would not be so much of a problem if this growing game of chicken in the Donbass did not resemble a Cuban Missile Crisis for the 21st century. The Mainstream Media’s headlines read of warnings to Russia not to attack, and move their own troops away from the border within their own territory for the sake of peace, while at the same time pumping up Kiev with support-based confidence to do just that – escalating the war in the Donbass towards a potential apocalyptic scenario. Since Moscow has already handed out citizenship to the residents of the breakaway republics and even given their leaders party membership into Putin’s dominant United Russia, along with executing many forms of bureaucratic “integration” the Donbass, we can clearly see that the region is de facto Russian again.

  

  Image: Leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin is now a card-carrying party member of United Russia. Source: Anna News.

  This means that a massive attack from Kiev, would be met by a full force response from Moscow, the “Russianness” of the region has now become essentially non-negotiable – “not one step back” can be taken as Stalin put it. With so many “instructors” and other assets from NATO working with Kiev it is overwhelmingly likely that a Russian counterattack to any offensive would kill some foreign troops. It could also hit the quietly unhidden network of American supported bio-labs that are spread throughout the country, the contents of which are of critical interest to the Department of Defense. This may sound hard to believe so you can watch this video and decide for yourself.

  This scenario is looking like a very dry powder keg just waiting for a spark to start WWIII, Kiev looks like it will launch a foolhardy attack believing it will be supported by NATO just like Saakashvili did in 2008 only this time, the West may just actually give them the proper support they desire, leading to a worst case scenario of a direct confrontation of Cowboys vs. Bears. That is how the scenario looks, especially inside the Russian political analysis sphere, but things are not always what they seem.

  

  Image: Former comedian and non-ethnic Ukrainian, President Zelensky has the chance to outdo Gavrilo Princip by starting an even deadlier war.

  It was not that long ago when we were sitting on the exact same cusp of nuclear annihilation. When Biden took office, all the experts within Russia, people on the ground in the Donbass and a few key players (that I know personally) were all sure that this was going to be “the big one”. They unanimously put their chips down on the idea that Biden’s support would be all that is needed to allow for a genocidal campaign to be waged on the Donbass while Moscow accepted its second-tier status watching their people be massacred. Or even worse, if Moscow would have protected the Donbass then we’d all be dead right now. But, despite the hype and expert\insider opinions, nothing happened. Absolutely nothing happened. There was no massive assault and the status quo was maintained.

  So is this WWIII scare somehow different from the previous one from about a year ago? If we all remember correctly, Biden’s ascension to the throne was rather contested and the near future of even America looked a bit blurry – it was not a good moment to greenlight Kiev’s war plans. And probably even more relevant, we cannot forget that the grand resource sinkhole that was the War in Afghanistan is now over, freeing up a lot of men and means to look elsewhere. Biden even said in his now historic speech at the end of the war that nation-building was over, but that other Hard Power and especially Soft Power weapons of U.S. Foreign Policy were still on the table. Now, apparently it is Russia’s turn to face the brunt of their impact. Washington has had the peace it needed in order to turn its focus onto again trying to break the Russians. The most popular sport within the Beltway.

  On the other hand, as time goes on the Fed keeps printing hyperinflation levels of dollars, problems at home are growing and the Global Hegemon’s throne seems to be very wobbly. Unlike the doom-and-gloom apocalyptic types that seem to dominate the Alternative Media, who almost salivate with glee at the opportunity to live through the end of the world, it is my personal belief that what we are seeing from Washington’s actions in the Ukraine are perhaps a negotiation strategy that is being masked.

  As I have written before, even within the Beltway it is becoming apparent that the Multipolar World Order has won, but the shape of that World Order is certainly up for debate, negotiation, or even a fight. If we were to try to “wargame out” scenarios for America to remain a winner on a globe with competing powers, then now would probably be a good time to work out deals regarding these potential new spheres of influence. We could right now be at some sort of the Yalta moment in the dying days of the Monopolar World.

  In fact, if this card was not on the table then NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wouldn’t have had to publicly denounce the idea of Russia having a sphere of influence. This statement echoes the same logic as the expression “punk’s not dead”. If punk music were still vibrant and alive no one would have to try to convince us otherwise with a catchy phrase printed on their t-shirt. So Russia having “no right” to a sphere of influence means that Russia is gaining or already possesses a sphere of influence. No one had to say such things during the Yeltsin period. Interestingly, Putin recently told NATO that he wants a guarantee from them excluding further expansion, which is basically a call for finalizing a deal regarding borders, buffer zones and spheres of influence going deeper into our lovely 21st century.

  

  Image: Russia would be happy to sign off on having all or most of its former Soviet territory as part of its sphere of influence.

  If Washington today works out a deal for the layout of the Multipolar World it is being drug into the agreement could work out to be pretty sweet, giving America the lion’s share of the globe. Risking it and kicking this can ten or twenty years down the road could yield far poorer results as at this point in time the Russians would be very happy to take what would look like a terrible deal to historians hundreds of years from now. The Mainstream Media lies about Russia’s obsession with some sort of expansionism are false, they want some (but not all) of their old territory back that they feel was stolen from them during the “greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century”. They would also like to get American Soft Power the hell out of their country (excluding Hollywood Movies and video games) for good and they would be willing to sign off on an awful deal to just make sure that they can have the stability and sovereignty they need to survive.

  Some territories are ultimately non-negotiable and the Russians will never give up until they can reintegrate them…

  • Belarus

  • The break-away republics of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria

  • The territory of today’s Ukrainian east and south of the Dnieper river also known as Malorossiya or “Little Russia” as it is sometimes translated.

  Some regions would be nice to have come back home but could at least benefit Russia as being within their sphere of influence.

  • Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan

  • Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan

  The Russians would willingly give up on Europe almost entirely, even including the Baltic States to get back the parts of the Ukraine that are an inalienable chunk of their society. That should suit Washington quite well. Kyrgyzstan has been probably the least racist Central Asian nation towards Russians, but they are cut off by questionable Kazakhstan that could turn into a Maidan style regime any day. In order to keep Kazakhstan sane and Kyrgyzstan close, Moscow may be willing to give up on everything else in Central Asia. The Caucasus Mountains are a lovely natural border and perhaps slick American negotiating skills could keep Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan permanently out of Russia’s grasp. Although this is now tougher after the resolution to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

  Getting almost all of Europe, half of Central Asia and possibly the entire southern half of the Caucasus Mountains while being able to use media spin to project the Russian boogeyman as an eternal cause to raise military budgets should sound good to an America in decline. This is actually a great deal for Russia short term, America in the long term, and anyone who does not want to personally live through a nightmare WWIII scenario.

  So, perhaps this highpoint in the Ukrainian crisis, and the big visits by Nuland to Moscow and Austin to Kiev are actually attempts by Washington to make lemons out of lemonade. We Americans are better at this than anyone else on the planet after all. This is not the time to go out and put money down on a fallout shelter but to instead enjoy the media spin that is coming that will try to obfuscate the realities of the dealings between Moscow and Washington to keep up appearances that we are still in a Monopolar World that needs more and more money being thrown to the military industrial complex. Perhaps cooler heads have already prevailed, it just doesn’t look that way on the surface.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 23:40

• These Are The Youngest (& Oldest) Richest Women In America
  These Are The Youngest (& Oldest) Richest Women In America

  The majority of the world’s billionaires hail from the United States.

  But, as Visual Capitalkist’s Iman Ghosh details below, of the 724 American billionaires whose net worths are tracked daily by Forbes, only 86 are women. That’s just 12% of the country’s billionaires.

  This visualization examines the select few who have made the cut into this prestigious list, using data compiled from Forbes’ real-time billionaires list.

  

  Note: All data is as of November 1, 2021 unless otherwise stated.

  Top 10 Richest Women in America

  Since 2020, MacKenzie Scott has donated over $8.5 billion and counting of her wealth. Yet, she still remains one of the richest women in the world. This is largely due to the Amazon shares that she received in her divorce settlement.

  Amazon’s stock performance soared amid the pandemic, which resulted in the initial value of her shares ($38.3 billion) nearly doubling.

  

  Miriam Adelson inherited her late husband’s 57% stake (worth ~$19 billion) in Las Vegas Sands, making her one of the richest newcomers to the Forbes list. The casinos have locations across Las Vegas, Singapore, and Macao.

  Several of the women in this top 10 list also share membership with some of the richest families in America—from the Walmart Waltons, to the Johnsons at the helm of Fidelity Investments and Fidelity International.

  The Oldest Richest Women in America

  The oldest female billionaire in the world, Alice Schwartz, is 95 years old. She co-founded Bio-Rad Laboratories with her husband, which operates in the life sciences research and clinical diagnostics markets. They started the company in 1952 with only $720 in the bank.

  

  After her husband’s passing in 2018, Janice McNair (aged 85) took over his 80% stake in the NFL team Houston Texans, which ranks highly as one of the world’s most valuable sports teams. This also subsequently catapulted her position as being among the wealthiest sports owners in the country.

  The Youngest Richest Women in America

  In the online dating era, Whitney Wolfe Herd has made a name for herself. The female-first dating app she co-founded, Bumble, grew into a formidable competitor for her former employer, Match Group (which owns Tinder and OkCupid, among others).

  At age 31, Wolfe Herd became the youngest self-made female CEO in the country after Bumble’s $2.2 billion IPO in February 2021.

  

  Wearing many hats from influencer to entrepreneur, socialite Kim Kardashian West’s cosmetics and fashion companies (KKW Beauty and shapewear line Skims) have catapulted her to a newfound billionaire status. She has a set of diverse revenue streams, from reality TV royalties to blue-chip and real estate investments.

  Top 20 Self-Made Richest Women in America

  The self-made label is an additional fascinating avenue to explore. Forbes defines this category as people who establish a fortune independently, rather than partly or wholly through inheritance.

  One of the newest entrants into this mix is Rihanna. She already enjoyed significant success as an entertainer, with her claim to fame being one of the best-selling artists of the 2010s. However, it was her entrepreneurial spirit that put her on the Forbes list in August 2021. Rihanna owns 50% of her cosmetics company, Fenty Beauty. The other half is run by Bernard Arnault, who is among the world’s top billionaires.

  Here is the rest of the top 20 self-made richest women in America:

  

  Source: Forbes, as of Aug 2021 (latest available)

  For those paying attention to the rapid rise of the fintech industry, Jenny Just’s entry on this list will come as no surprise. Her firm, Apex Fintech Solutions powers the trading technology behind companies like SoFi and eToro. In fact, she has started or bought 15 businesses in the space in just 24 years.

  As the richest women in America continue to make great strides, this list could look very different in coming years.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 23:20

• A Dozen Major US Cities Hit All-Time Murder Records With 3 Weeks Still Left In 2021
  A Dozen Major US Cities Hit All-Time Murder Records With 3 Weeks Still Left In 2021

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  At least 12 major U.S. cities have set annual murder records in 2021 even as there are still several weeks remaining in the year, data shows.

  

  Philadelphia, one of the largest cities in the United States, saw 525 murders in 2021, according to police data. That’s higher than the previously set record of 500 murders in 1990.

  With a population of nearly 1.579 million, the data suggests Philadelphia’s homicide rate is about 33 murders per 100,000 people—or more than four times higher than the U.S. homicide rate of 7.8 per 100,000 people in 2020.

  “It’s terrible to every morning get up and have to go look at the numbers and then look at the news and see the stories. It’s just crazy. It’s just crazy and this needs to stop,” Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney, a Democrat, said earlier this month, according to reports.

  Other large cities that broke their previous homicide records in 2021 include Portland, Oregon; Austin, Texas; St. Paul, Minnesota; Indianapolis, Indiana; Louisville, Kentucky; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Columbus, Ohio; Tuscon, Arizona; and Rochester, New York, according to an analysis of public news reports.

  Indianapolis recorded at least 246 murders in 2021, Rochester has recorded at least 71 murders, Columbus has recorded at least 179, Baton Rouge recorded 137, Portland saw 79, Albuquerque has experienced 97, Tucson has 81, Louisville saw 175, St. Paul recorded 35, and Toledo saw 62 murders—all records.

  

  Portland police officers walk past a fire started by a Molotov cocktail that a rioter hurled at them, in Portland, Ore., on Sept. 23, 2020. (Nathan Howard/Getty Images)

  Notably, Portland, Rochester, Lousiville, and St. Paul experienced numerous days of protests and riots starting in May of 2020 after the officer-involved death of George Floyd, which sparked nationwide unrest.

  Protesters and rioters took to the streets in St. Paul—located near Minneapolis—following Floyd’s death at the hands of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin. Meanwhile, weeks of riots and protests erupted in Louisville following the death of Breonna Taylor, and in Portland, left-wing agitators partook in riots and protests for more than 100 consecutive days last year.

  In Rochester, riots broke out following the officer-involved death of Daniel Prude, a black man who was later confirmed to be under the influence of the dissociative hallucinogenic drug PCP and was reportedly partially naked and smashing storefronts during cold and snowy weather on March 30, 2020.

  “The community has to get fed up,” Capt. Frank Umbrino, of the Rochester Police Department, said during a recent news conference last month. 

   “We’re extremely frustrated. It has to stop. I mean, it’s worse than a war zone around here lately.”

  As it has in the past, Chicago currently leads the United States with more than 730 homicides by the end of November, according to Chicago Police Department data, coming as at least nine murders were reported during an outburst of shootings across the Windy City over the past weekend. The most deadly year on record was in 1974 when Chicago experienced 974 homicides.

  Nationally, homicides rose by about 30 percent in 2020 compared to the prior year, according to FBI data released several months ago. That was the largest one-year spike since the FBI started keeping records.

  Some criminologists have blamed the spike in murder rates on lax bail laws, political and racial conflicts following the George Floyd riots and protests, large numbers of officers retiring or quitting, and pandemic-related panic.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 23:00

• US Blocks Investment In Uyghur-Hunting Facial-Recognition AI Startup
  US Blocks Investment In Uyghur-Hunting Facial-Recognition AI Startup

  On Human Rights Day (Dec. 10), the U.S. Treasury Department banned American investments in Chinese artificial intelligence startup SenseTime Group Inc due to their connection to human rights abuse and repression of the Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang autonomous region in western China. 

  The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned SenseTime, a top developer of facial recognition technology, for their connection to “human rights abuse, including technology-enabled abuse” of Uyghur Muslims. 

  

  OFAC said SenseTime’s “facial recognition programs can determine a target’s ethnicity, with a particular focus on identifying ethnic Uyghurs. When applying for patent applications, Shenzhen SenseTime Technology Co. Ltd. has highlighted its ability to identify Uyghurs wearing beards, sunglasses, and masks.” 

  “The mass detention of Uyghurs is part of an effort by Chinese authorities to use detentions and data-driven surveillance to create a police state in the Xinjiang region,” the OFAC said. 

  According to Bloomberg sources, hours before the Treasury’s sanctions, SenseTime delayed its Hong Kong initial public offering on early Friday. Bankers familiar with the deal said the pause or withdrawal of the offering would make it more challenging for the A.I. startup to IPO. 

  SenseTime is already on the U.S. government blacklist, placed on the Commerce Department’s Entity List in 2019. It was placed there over its role in human rights violations against Uyghurs. Companies on the list are prohibited from doing business with U.S. firms unless they obtain a special license.  

  All of this is happening on Human Rights Day, and days after the U.S., the U.K., Australia, Canada, Lithuania, New Zealand, and Scotland have declared a diplomatic boycott of the Winter Games in Beijing over China’s abuse of Uyghurs. 

  Instead of actual “words,” the U.S. is becoming brave enough to address the human rights abuses with policy action. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 22:40

• COVID-19 A Pandemic Of Fear "Manufactured" By Authorities: Yale Epidemiologist
  COVID-19 A Pandemic Of Fear “Manufactured” By Authorities: Yale Epidemiologist

  Authored by Isabel van Bruegn via Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times,

  The COVID-19 pandemic has been one of fear, manufactured by individuals who were in the nominal positions of authority as the virus began to spread across the globe last year, according to Yale epidemiologist Dr. Harvey Risch.

  

  In an appearance on Epoch TV’s “American Thought Leaders” program, Risch, an epidemiology professor at the Yale School of Public Health and Yale School of Medicine’s Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, argued that by and large, what has characterized the entire CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic has been a “degree of fear and people’s response to the fear.”

  “Overall, I’d say that we’ve had a pandemic of fear. And fear has affected almost everybody, whereas the infection has affected relatively few,” said Risch.

  “By and large, it’s been a very selected pandemic, and predictable. It was very distinguished between young versus old, healthy versus chronic disease people. So we quickly learned who was at risk for the pandemic and who wasn’t.

  “However, the fear was manufactured for everybody. And that’s what’s characterized the whole pandemic is that degree of fear and people’s response to the fear.”

  Risch has authored more than 300 original peer-reviewed publications and was formerly a member of the board of editors for the American Journal of Epidemiology.

  “I’m looking at clinicians who have now treated more than 150,000 patients, with fewer than 2 dozen deaths, with #hydroxychloroquine.”

  Yale epidemiologist Dr. Harvey Risch on the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine, #Ivermectin & other therapeutics.

  🔴WATCH👉https://t.co/AdFnjPmJvw pic.twitter.com/ozS0QbWFp7

  — Jan Jekielek (@JanJekielek) December 1, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The epidemiology professor suggested that individuals who held the nominal positions of authority during the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 initially spread a much worse picture of the “dire nature” of the virus than was warranted.

  That included the message that everybody was at risk, anybody could die from contracting the virus, and everybody needed to stay in their homes to protect themselves, and, in this way, protect society.

  “People were quite afraid of that message, as anybody would be … with the government, with authorities, with scientists, scientific people, with medical people in authority in the public health institutions, all saying the same message starting in about February, March of last year. And so, we all kind of believe this,” he said.

  In the first two months of the pandemic, stringent lockdowns and mask mandates were implemented to curb the transmission of COVID-19 in the United States and across the globe. Risch said that the types of messages issued by authorities led to widespread heightened anxiety levels.

  “All of our anxiety levels were raised, and we all made decisions to curtail, to various degrees, our exposures to other people, some more than others, but I think everybody had levels of anxiety that really affected how they carry out their life at that time,” he said.

  Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has said that 96 to 98 percent of Americans need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 before the nation can “go back to normal,” pushing the rhetoric that unvaccinated Americans are to blame for slowing down the nation’s economic recovery.

  According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of Dec. 4, just over 70 percent of American adults were fully vaccinated against the virus, while 23.9 percent had received a booster dose.

  “…people need to get angry about this… that these drugs [hydroxycholoquine, ivermectin] have been suppressed for reasons that are nothing to do with the science”

  Watch the full interview with Yale epidemiologist Dr. Harvey Risch below, or watch and read the full transcript on Epoch TV.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 22:20

• Poll Finds Public Confidence In 'Woke' Military Is In Free Fall
  Poll Finds Public Confidence In ‘Woke’ Military Is In Free Fall

  A new public opinion poll featured in The Hill has found that the US military’s reputation is in free fall:

  The Ronald Reagan Institute just announced that public confidence in the military has continued its precipitous drop. The institute’s November 2021 poll found that only 45 percent of those polled report “a great deal of trust and confidence in the military” — down 25 points in three years. The institute adds “Increasing numbers of Americans say they have little or not much confidence in the military, which is up 15 points in the last three years.”

  The military isn’t the only public institution suffering a bad reputation, but it is used to basking in public esteem. As a result, it may not know how to recover.

  Perhaps it should come as no surprise, given that especially over the past year the Pentagon has devoted itself to the woke agenda, putting out recruitment videos that focus on forging leaders, strength and conditioning, preparation for war-fighting, overcoming obstacles “diversity”, “acceptance” and LGBTQ++ campaigns. 

  

  Recently GOP Senators have begun to take aim at what appears a clear erosion of the military’s old school values of toughness, overcoming odds, and forging strong leaders and unit cohesion. For example last spring the mainstream media heavily criticized Sen. Ted Cruz for calling out the dangers of a ‘woke and emasculated’ new military.

  “Perhaps a woke, emasculated military is not the best idea,” he wrote on Twitter, commenting on a video comparing Russian and US military recruitment adds. 

  Rod Dreher at The American Conservative says of the declining public confidence in the military: “You can blame Obama and Biden, as well as the senior US military leadership, for the institutionalization of wokeness in the armed forces — and you can blame Trump for not doing enough to stop the madness. Word is getting around about what they have done, and are doing, to military culture. The brass is making enemies of the core people who serve.”

  He points out that the vast majority of recruits come from southern states and red states, based on the most recent available data.

  

  These populations – already tending to lean conservative and toward conservative values – then enter a military where they are bombarded with official woke propaganda. 

  These are real recruitment adds from Russia, China, and the United States… who stands to have the fiercest fighting organizations in the near and distant future?

  As we detailed in recent prior analysis, this is a process that’s been building for the past decade or more:

  Over the past decade federal military and intelligence agencies have increasingly embraced so-called woke campaigns and policy positions. Specifically, these government agencies have taken explicitly ideological positions in promoting “pride month” and more recruitment of larger numbers of gay and transgender personnel explicitly for purposes of increasing “diversity.” Actual military concerns appear to be receding into the background even as the US military establishment has recently lost yet another war and blown trillions of taxpayer dollars.

  For example, as early as 2014, the CIA was bragging that it “has participated in the DC Capital Pride Festival for the past three years … and is active in advancing LGBT diversity and inclusion efforts throughout the Intelligence Community.” More recently, the CIA in May 2021 released a series of recruitment videos clearly focused on recruiting personnel which would allow the agency to check certain diversity boxes.

  But The Hill places emphasis on the August US pullout of Afghanistan and evacuation chaos, which likely accounts for the military’s declining public perception:

  It was likely the chaotic retreat from Kabul in August — the first time the American people witnessed a defeat in real-time — that pushed the poll numbers lower. Added to that were the deaths of 13 service members killed by a suicide bomber at the gate of Kabul’s airport as they worked to speed the humanitarian evacuation. Of the 13, 12 were in their 20s, and all were volunteers.

  While there’s no doubt the Pentagon should have long been focused on meticulously laying the groundwork for a viable Afghan strategy and pullout, instead the Pentagon was busy focusing on other things…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 22:00

• Upgrading The Behemoth That Is The Bitcoin Blockchain
  Upgrading The Behemoth That Is The Bitcoin Blockchain

  Authored by Emeka Ugbah via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  Bitcoin has undergone many improvements over the years… and not without its share of controversy…

  

  THE BEHEMOTH

  The Behemoth, a primeval, “unconquerable beast” in the biblical book of Job. Though largely considered a myth, this beast was said to be over 300 feet in height and weighed over 80,000 metric tons. As is to be expected of such a ginormous creature, its gaits would have caused the earth beneath its feet to tremble with every step as it trudges majestically — slowly — through the land. Now you would agree that it would be physically impossible for such a beast to make any sudden turns or suddenly alter the direction of its movement, yes?

  Well, the Bitcoin network can be likened to a behemoth. Some may say that it is still in its infancy seeing as it’s only 12 years old compared to other preexisting monetary systems. Well, in that case, I’ll say it’s a 12-year-old — not so much an infant — with a gigantic 360-gigabyte data repository, powering a 1.1 trillion dollar ecosystem, that has about 76 million unique addresses, and a little over 1 million of those addresses currently active as at the time of writing. Considering the age of the network, if those figures aren’t considered behemoth , then I don’t know what is.

  

  Image source

  Being a decentralized, open-source, peer-to-peer network, Bitcoin — unlike most other networks run by centralized protocols — isn’t run, nor controlled, by any single entity but by its users spread out across the globe. Because the network’s smooth running depends on complete consensus between all network users and participants, no adjustments, changes or upgrades can be made on its ever-growing 360-gigabyte database without the general approval of its participants. As a result of this, these changes or upgrades don’t happen very often. We could say that changes or upgrades can only be implemented slowly — majestically, like the movement of the Behemoth.

  The last significant upgrade to the network was implemented in 2017.

  THE BLOCKSIZE WAR

  

  Image Courtesy Pixabay

  Back in 2015, the era of The Blocksize War, was an interesting time in Bitcoin history. It is a good example of what happens when participants within the network don’t reach a consensus about the affairs of the network. During that time, Bitcoin’s adoption rate reached new heights. As the number of users transferring bitcoin within the network increased, it got bogged down with larger volumes of transactions than its capacity could handle, leading to an overall decrease in transaction processing time. Several proposals were submitted by different schools of thought within the Bitcoin community. One of those proposals suggested increasing the individual block sizes as a solution to the problem. That, of course, was met with opposition, leading to the famed “Blocksize War” and eventually a hard fork in the network that led to the creation of Bitcoin cash.

  Hard fork …oh, I don’t mean a piece of cutlery made out of vibranium or adamantium. And yes, there’s also a “soft” variation. Some complex terms, no? Okay, for contextual clarity, I’ll quickly run through what they both mean. First of all, a fork, in this instance, is a change in the underlying protocol of a blockchain. A soft fork is a change or an upgrade in the network that is backward compatible with its previous versions, in which all participants see this upgrade as valid. Now in the case of a hard fork, remember when I said that all participants have to agree on changes in a network for it to be implemented? Well, a failure by the participants to reach an agreement, with the proposing party still holding strong to their notion or idea for the network, results in a split, “a fork in the road” if you will, where a whole new network is created and is run by either a completely new protocol, or a version of the old one that suits the ideals of its creators.

  Simple enough, yes? Now, let’s get back to the story.

  THE DOCTOR TO THE RESCUE

  SegWit, or Segregated Witness, a soft fork of the Bitcoin blockchain, was one of the proposed solutions to the problem that was plaguing the network. SegWit works by decoupling signature data from individual Bitcoin transactions and efficiently rearranging them in each block. The good doctor, Pieter Wuille — a Bitcoin core developer who proposed this upgrade — suggested that it would significantly increase transaction speeds on the network. So, look at it like this: Since it had been established that digital signatures account for 65% of the data from a given transaction, separating or segregating the witness (the digital signature of the sender) from the entire data effectively reduces its volume, thereby reducing the amount of time it would take a miner to validate or verify it. This proposal made sense, and after the network participants reached a consensus, it was agreed upon and work began effectively on it. After several tests and trials, the SegWit upgrade on the Bitcoin blockchain went live on August 23, 2017.

  AND THEN LIGHTNING STRUCK

  

  Image source

  The SegWit upgrade was the scaling solution it was promised to be. It was what Bitcoin needed. This upgrade enabled the network’s continued growth of its user base and by extension, transaction volume. By freeing up space in each block, the SegWit upgrade also paved the way for the creation of the Lightning Network. Remember back in 2015 during the Blocksize War? One of the solutions proposed back then to resolve Bitcoin’s scalability issues was the Lightning Network. It was definitely not a hard fork and not a soft fork either. The Lightning Network is a software designed to be layered on top of the Bitcoin blockchain that enables the creation of off-chain, peer-to-peer, bidirectional micropayment channels, created by users, which allows them to transfer value, almost instantly and at exceptionally low costs, without limits and the need for a trusted third party.

  Joseph Poon and Thaddeus Dryja, the two Bitcoin developers and researchers who co-wrote the paper titled, “The Bitcoin Lightning Network,” where they detailed the proposed protocol and how it will solve Bitcoin’s scalability problems, published it on January 14, 2016. And thus began the race to develop it, which then led to the creation of the “Lightning Labs,” a company based in San Francisco, California, and dedicated to the development of the Lightning Network. Then in 2018, they launched the beta version on the Bitcoin blockchain.

  The impact of this innovation cannot be ignored within the Bitcoin community, or by the entire Crypto space, because its implementation made Bitcoin’s adoption as legal tender in El Salvador possible. It’s no longer news that one can make micropayments in bitcoin in the country now. Buying a cup of coffee or paying for a haircut with sats from your Lightning wallet is now as easy as scanning a barcode, all thanks to the Lightning Network.

  TAPROOT GOES LIVE

  Seen as the most significant upgrade since the implementation of the Lightning Network, the Taproot soft fork is an improvement to the Bitcoin blockchain that was proposed in January 2018 by Gregory Maxwell, a Bitcoin core developer and former Blockstream CTO. Fast forward to January 2020, the good doctor Pieter Wuille submitted a pull request for this upgrade, and then, a little over a year later, Michael Ford and Marco Falke, two other Bitcoin Core Devs, merged a complementary pull request, which led to the beginning of the signaling period. The Taproot proposal surprisingly reached a 90% consensus among the network’s miners and participants. This is considered to be a bit of a rare occurrence, I mean we do recall the split in the network that happened around the SegWit upgrade, yes? As soon as that consensus was reached, work to implement the upgrade commenced thereafter.

  The Taproot codebase was integrated with the Bitcoin core through three different BIPs (Bitcoin Improvement Proposals). These BIPs included BIP 340 (Schnorr signatures), BIP 341 (Taproot) and BIP 342 (Tapscript).

  WHAT IS TAPROOT?

  Now, without sounding overly technical and using the simplest possible terms I can come up with, let’s get to understand how these three Bitcoin improvements come together.

  BIP 340 (Schnorr signatures). Originally, to generate public keys and verify transactions, Bitcoin employs the use of the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). With the Taproot upgrade, the Schnorr signature, a more secure, easier to use algorithm is implemented. With the Schnorr signature, instead of processing a single transaction at a time, multiple transactions are bundled up, processed and verified in batches, thereby increasing the network’s overall processing time, making it equally less expensive.

  BIP 341(Taproot). Building on the SegWit upgrade, Taproot employs the Merklized Alternative Script Trees (MAST), a cryptographic protocol used to improve the privacy, efficiency and flexibility of Bitcoin’s scripting capabilities without compromising security.

  BIP 342 (Tapscript). The term “Tapscript” is basically an upgraded version of Bitcoin’s operating system (script). Now, this BIP 342 improvement proposal complements the earlier mentioned Schnorr and Taproot proposals. It improves the hashing of signatures, enabling the validation of taproot scripts, as well as allowing the flexibility to add operation codes (opcodes, basically script commands). This enhances the network’s ability to process smart contracts, which is one of the most important things about this soft fork.

  The Taproot upgrade went live at block 709,632, on Sunday. November 14, 2021.

  WHY TAPROOT?

  At this point, the “why” shouldn’t be much of a question, no? Besides improved privacy and reduced transaction processing cost, the fact that Bitcoin developers can now much more flexibly develop smart contracts on the network is a thing to be excited about. This feature, as it should be known, is something most other newer blockchains came preloaded, straight out of the box with. With this, the potential for scaling the network can’t be understated. Though it may take a few years for it to be fully adopted, the scaling potential for the network will not be made light of. rom DeFi to NFTs, a whole vibrant ecosystem can now be built on the Bitcoin blockchain.

  “Taproot will set the foundation for the next phase of innovation in the Bitcoin protocol. We expect this upgrade to unleash a new wave of innovation in bitcoin focused mainly on smart contracts.” — Katherine Dowling (CCO Bitwise Asset Management)

  MY THOUGHTS

  As far as upgrades go, Taproot may or may not be the most important upgrade the Bitcoin blockchain has seen since its inception, but it is, by all standards, one that will herald more mainstream adoption for the network. Will it impact the value of the network? I think it will, though not right away, as it may yet take some time before its effects are felt across the network. If we look at what happened a few months after the SegWit upgrade went live in 2017, we can see that the value of bitcoin, which was around $5,000 at the time, embarked on a moon trip so to speak, making that 300%-plus gains that led to the top of the 2017 bull cycle.

  

  Bitcoin Price Chart

  Now, will that be the case here as well? No one can say with absolute certainty unless, of course, the tip is from someone who has time-traveling privileges. Whatever the outcome is though, we are here for it.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 21:40

• Five Million Americans In Path For Possible Tornadoes Friday Night
  Five Million Americans In Path For Possible Tornadoes Friday Night

  The Northern Hemisphere winter is just eleven days away, but the threat of severe thunderstorms “capable of producing tornadoes” on Friday and into early Saturday is increasing for millions of Americans across the Southern part of the US, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

  “A few strong tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail are all expected beginning this evening across Arkansas and Missouri, with the greatest tornado threat close to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. The damaging wind and tornado threat will persist overnight while spreading eastward into the Tennessee Valley and northeastward across the Ohio Valley overnight,” NWS-SPC said. 

  

  A broad area across Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; Evansville, Indiana; and western Kentucky have a level 3 out of 5 “enhanced risk” of severe storms. A level 2 out of 5 “slight risk” stretches from the Mississippi River to the Ohio River Valley. The “enhanced risk” area has the greatest probability of tornadoes.

  

  Here’s the probability map of where tornadoes could spawn. The most severe chances are in the enhanced risk area, encompassing Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; Evansville, Indiana; and western Kentucky, which include approximately 5.6mln people. 

  

  NWS-SPC expects wind damage across the enhanced risk area. 

  

  “Friday night is a time window that everyone needs to watch closely, have multiple ways to receive weather alerts, and know exactly what your plan of action is in case severe weather threatens,” the NWS office in Paducah, Kentucky, said Thursday.

  Storm chaser Reed Timmer is on the hunt for supercells across the South. 

  LIVE update from western TN ahead of a significant nocturnal #tornado outbreak expected TONIGHT across a large zone from eastern AR to as far northeast as central IN and all areas in between. Very important to stay tuned to watches and warnings tonight! pic.twitter.com/RE2V0Rknjo

  — Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) December 10, 2021

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  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 21:20

• Supreme Court Will Have To Decide California Gun Law
  Supreme Court Will Have To Decide California Gun Law

  Authored by John Seiler via The Epoch Times,

  “We are filing to stay the issue, to get cert with the Supreme Court,” Rich Travis told me. He’s the director of development at the California Pistol and Rifle Association, based in Fullerton.

  I had asked about the association’s case Duncan v. Bonta, which an en banc panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeal recently held in favor of California’s ban on magazines containing more than 10 bullets.

  “Get cert” means “certiorari,” in which at least four justices of the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case.

  

  In August 2020, a three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit had held against the restrictive state laws, from 2000, 2013 and 2016. The panel held the limit violated the “strict scrutiny” of any gun law mandated by the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2008 Heller decision, which upheld the Second Amendment’s “right to keep and bear arms” was not just for militias, but for persons.

  That decision by the panel then was appealed by Attorney General Rob Bonta to the en banc panel of 11 judges. Travis said the vote to uphold the ban was 7-4. All seven of those on the Ninth Circuit voting for the law were appointed by Democratic presidents, and all four voting to uphold the Second Amendment were appointed by Republicans.

  The case was decided against the association “only when strict scrutiny was lowered by the seven democratic judges,” Travis said.

  Potentially, the Tuesday ruling could have been appealed to the full Ninth Circuit, with 29 judges. On it, 16 are Democrat and 13 Republican, thanks to 10 appointments by President Trump. But Travis said neither his association nor Bonta wanted to take that detour. Instead both wanted to go straight to the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington, D.C.

  Another factor here is the Supreme Court already has a gun case on its docket this fall—New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen. It could overturn that state’s strict conceal-carry laws. That likely would mean California’s similar laws also would become unconstitutional.

  AP reported Nov. 3, “During two hours of arguments conservative members of the court, where they have a 6-3 majority, suggested New York’s law and perhaps others like it in half a dozen other states go too far. Why, Chief Justice John Roberts asked, does a person seeking a license to carry a gun in public for self defense have to show a special need to do so.”

  Roberts said, “The idea that you need a license to exercise the right, I think, is unusual in the context of the Bill of Rights.”

  However, Travis said the New York law’s outcome, whatever it is, would not directly affect whatever happens at the court to the California law.

  California Anti-Gun Laws

  The magazine limits are three of many anti-gun rights laws passed in California in recent years. But magazine limit is especially silly because there’s almost no difference in using a 10-round magazine and, say, a 20-round magazine. It only takes a fraction of a second to pop out one magazine, then pop in another.

  The main difference is you save a few ounces by carrying the same number of bullets in larger magazines. And if you’re humping a backpack and rifle 30 miles in the military, every ounce counts.

  Neither Gov. Newsom nor Attorney General Bonta ever served in the military. So they don’t know such things.

  Moreover, large magazines are more likely to jam because the spring inside can get weak. That’s what happened in the movie theater in Aurora, Colo. back in 2012, in which James Holmes killed 12 people and injured 70. His 100-round barrel magazine jammed, ending the mayhem.

  Gun expert John Lott wrote, “A magazine, which is basically a metal box with a spring, is trivially easy to make and virtually impossible to stop criminals from obtaining.” He noted California Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s 1994 federal law banning magazines holding more than 10 bullets, which expired a decade later, “had no effect on crime rates.”

  Anyone intent on causing mayhem in California also would not be concerned about following the magazine ban and could easily buy larger magazines in Arizona or other pro-gun states, then bring them back illegally across the border. Mass murder is a lot more serious charge than the $100 fine the magazine ban brings for a first offense.

  Finally, there’s the old saying, “The Supreme Court justices also read the newspapers.” They know what’s going on in the country with the crime increases in cities that have reduced police funding. They know the murder rates in many cities have soared during the past two years.

  Washington, D.C., where the Supreme Court is located, has suffered 205 murders so far in 2021, up 10 percent in one year. It’s the highest rate in 16 years.

  The court also has read about the acquittal of Kyle Rittenhouse in Kenosha, Wisc., after he defended himself using an AR-15-style rifle by killing two attackers and wounding a third.

  It’s difficult to predict what the Supreme Court will do, even if comments by the justices seem to indicate how a case will be decided. So we don’t know what will happen with the New York or California gun cases.

  But what we do know is California’s continued grandstanding on the gun issue is yet another restriction on citizens’ constitutional rights. And appealing decisions like this one is another expense, when the money could be used by Bonta’s department to, say, prosecute the flash mobs robbing California stores.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 21:00

• Plans For New NYC Casino Include "World's Largest Cryptocurrency Trading Floor"
  Plans For New NYC Casino Include “World’s Largest Cryptocurrency Trading Floor”

  Talk about apropos…

  An idea being pitched for a brand new casino in New York City includes plans for the “world’s largest cryptocurrency trading floor”.

  The casino plans, being submitted by money manager Jason Ader on December 10, are also expected to include plans for a landing pad for flying cars, according to Bloomberg. 

  The project, slated to cost more than $3 billion, will also include a eSports arena and space to host events like New York’s Fashion Week.

  Ader, a former casino analyst, said this week: “The goal is to have a differentiated but comprehensive approach to entertainment that goes beyond casino gaming with some pretty cool elements.”

  

  Ader also used to sit on the board of Sands and is making his bid as part of a partnership with Universal Entertainment Corp.

  The New York State Gaming Commission is issuing three new casino licenses for the Southern most part of the state. Ader’s plans will be among others submitted. 

  MGM Resorts International and Genting Group will be looking to expanding slot and horse racing parlors that they already have in the New York City area, the report says. Bally’s Corp. and Las Vegas Sands Corp. have also held preliminary talks about expanding their reach to the area.

  The casino is slated to be called “Mirai”, which means ‘future’ in Japanese. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 20:40

• Young People Turn To Collectivism Because Of These Psychological Disparities
  Young People Turn To Collectivism Because Of These Psychological Disparities

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  Are Americans changing with the times, are the times changing with Americans, or, has nothing really changed at all in the past century?

  

  Before we dive into this discussion it’s important to understand one thing above all else – There is nothing new under the sun. Every “new” political movement or cultural upheaval has happened a thousand times or more in the past. Every “new” form of governance is just a rehashed version of a system that came before it. Every “new” economic structure is one of a handful of preexisting and ever repeating trade methodologies. Every “new” revolution and rebellion is a fight for the same basic goals against the same persistent foes that have always existed since the dawn of civilization. All of human history can be condensed down to a few fundamental and irreconcilable differences, desires, values and ambitions.

  This cycle of events is a kind of historical furnace where people and nations are forged. Most go through life without any inkling of the whirlwind; they think the things happening to them are unique and unprecedented. Maybe if human beings lived longer lives they would realize how common such conflicts are and view the repetition with less panic.

  The so called “disenfranchised” feel overwhelmed by the tides and completely devoid of any influence over the future. Then there are those that have the ability to see the story unfold. There are those that try to control it and use it to their advantage. There are those that are trying desperately to escape it, even at the cost of reason and sanity. And, there are those that take truly individual action and make history rather than simply being caught up in it.

  None of us really knows which path we will choose until we are faced with a defining moment, and none of us knows when that moment will arrive. I know it sounds crazy, but living in interesting times is not a curse, it is a blessing. Of course, not everyone feels this way…

  Collectivism Targets The Young For A Reason

  As the mainstream media is fond of reminding us, there is a large percentage of teens and young adults today that are turning to collectivist systems like socialism to find protection from what they see as a cruel and unfair era that is inhospitable to their prosperity and emotional security. They feel that the generations that came before them rendered all the fat and siphoned all the wealth this country has to give and now there is nothing left for them. In some cases they are correct, in other cases they have been cleverly misled.

  That’s right folks, it’s a return to that epic battle between the inexperienced and naive younglings who will one day inherit the Earth, and the selfish and obstinate “boomers” that supposedly ruined it for them. A battle not just of classes but of generations; nothing new under the sun, same as it ever was.

  According to mainstream polling over the past few years there has been an aggressive shift in younger people away from traditional American concepts like free markets (What leftists call “capitalism”) and individualism towards the sweet sugary smell of candy coated socialism. The strange thing is that many millennials and Gen Z kids mistrust government more than any generation that has come before them in recent memory. Yet, more than half of them actually think that socialism (big government) is a “rebellion” against corrupt and intrusive government influence. Yeah, how did they ever come to that conclusion? It’s bizarre.

  There are a lot of very insightful theories on why this is happening. Some people argue that public schools and colleges have become subversively communist and ideological, and that recent generations have been exposed to increasing levels of indoctrination. It’s true, the evidence is undeniable that this is happening and the propaganda coming from public schools is so radioactive it’s giving the country cancer.

  However, what this theory overlooks is that younger people are targeted with collectivist cultism for a reason – They are already highly susceptible to the narrative. Certain people and groups are more psychologically inclined to adopt particular values and embrace particular solutions.

  Young people tend to lean more towards the collectivist mentality, and the elitists behind the curtain encourage and exploit this existing social trait. They don’t create these divisions out of thin air, the divisions already exist in society and they take advantage. That’s the big secret that very few analysts want to acknowledge.

  Who Is To Blame?

  To be fair, older generations have not helped the situation much. It would have been better if the fight against globalism, collectivism, etc. had been fought and ended decades ago. There have been a lot of false starts. Economically, older Americans have done very little to stop government spending and the Federal Reserve’s money printing bonanza and now we are witnessing a stagflationary crisis which young people are ill equipped to survive. There are many comforts that Baby Boomers took for granted, such as greater buying power of the dollar and easier home ownership, and these are comforts that newer generations will probably not experience.

  But then again, blaming the apathy of “boomers” as the sole culprits behind the economic decline of the US is a deflection on the part of young socialists. Let’s be realistic; the vast majority of stimulus creation was accomplished by the Fed between 2008 and today. Millennials are more than old enough to take part of the responsibility. The central bank and the government conjured more national debt and inflationary stimulus in the past decade than all the previous 235 years of our country’s existence combined. Most younger Americans stood by and watched this happen right along with the baby boomers.

  Also, accusing boomers of dereliction of duty for not leaping into revolution against the powers-that-be presumes that this was ever their job. It’s a lot like blaming the parents or grandparents of the Founding Fathers for not breaking from England sooner. Maybe there just wasn’t enough momentum yet? Maybe the task was left to the founders era for a reason. Maybe these things are part of a cycle (as mentioned above) and maybe an accounting of our current predicament was not possible until today? Like I said, we don’t get to choose the time in which we live, and moments where tyranny or rebellion are decided are fleeting in history.

  Sorry, kids, but someone has to come of age during these moments of malaise and that lot falls to you. Unfortunately, some of you will now be standing in support of the corrupt system instead of fighting against it and we will be finding ourselves at cross-purposes.

  The Exploitable Psychological Weaknesses Of Youth

  The question again is, why are we on opposite sides? Why are around two-thirds of younger people putting their faith in big government when they are the generation that’s supposed to be the most suspicious of government? What is it with the young and socialism and collectivism?

  To be sure, collectivist movements like to present themselves as “revolutionary” and fighting for the “underdogs.” And usually they are marginal in their social presence and seem to be grassroots in origin when they begin. The key to knowing if a movement is real or if it is a controlled farce is to see who is putting their money behind it.

  It is not surprising to most conservatives that the political left enjoys endless cash flow from globalist institutions and corporate backers. After all, we’re the people these kids are being encouraged to destroy because we are in actual opposition to the system (save a handful of GOP elites that are conservative in rhetoric only).

  Social justice groups are finding enthusiastic allies among the mega-rich, the very people the left claims they are fighting to dethrone. BLM and other leftist organizations have received hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from the Ford Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, George Soros and his Open Society Foundation, etc. This is not conspiracy “theory”, this is openly admitted reality.

  Colleges in particular have long been a grooming ground for the elites, and it’s important to remember that many leftists are coaxed and manipulated by gatekeepers into the role of angry activists. That doesn’t mean they bear no responsibility for their actions. This leads us to the psychology of today’s younger generation and why they are so often targeted for exploitation by collectivists.

  The Vulnerable Psychology Of The Young

  Collectivist movements associate with empathetic causes and many young people draw political conclusions based on emotion and empathy. It makes sense; most younger Americans value empathy and charity above all else because they have only been on this Earth for a short period of time. They have thrived for most of their brief existences because of charity and support from other people (like their parents). They move into the adult world wondering why collective support and centralized charity are not there waiting for them. It’s the only system of survival they have ever known, and now the world demands that they stand on their own two feet and make their way alone.

  The go to solution is usually to go to college and take on debt. For the past 10-15 years college for most people has become a way to escape the real world for a few years more. A large number of them take on useless majors and pay tens of thousands of dollars for degrees that have no value to any employer. When college ends the escape plan ends and once again reality waits for them, but now they have an average of $30,000 in debt dragging on their necks like a millstone.

  This is why the number of young people living with their parents into their 20s and 30s has skyrocketed in the past several years to 52%. When mommy and daddy are no longer the primary means of sustainment they search for a proxy, and the government looks like a tempting replacement.

  This is partially the fault of helicopter parents that have spent the better part of their children’s lives trying to shield them from any responsibility or consequences. They have left swarms of these kids completely unprepared for the harsh lessons of the adult world. The fact of the matter is, childhood ends, and dependency ends, and you will have to be able to function without constant help or you will feel the pain of failure. This is how the world works and how it always will work. Socialism/communism and globalism/collectivism all make promises that under their new system you can remain a child for the rest of your life, forever cared for by government. This is a lie.

  Collectivist systems do have a habit of making most people equal, in that we are all made equally poor and equally destitute. The Utopian vision of a world without work or worries always has a hidden price tag as well. The sacrifice of personal freedom is the trade and while some don’t see this as a bad thing most of them aren’t old enough yet to understand what they are losing.

  A problem more specific to Millennials and Gen Z is that they have extraordinarily high expectations but extremely low initiative and ambition. When the top dream job for young people in poll after poll is “YouTuber” or “Influencer”, you know that our society is in trouble. The expectation is that work will always be minimal while money will always be ample and fame will be inevitable. Social media is built on this very narrative, and the number of “followers” a person has on social media is treated as a currency; subscribers and followers are the new measure of individual success, even if that person has accomplished nothing else in their lives.

  Imagine that you have this mentality sloshing around in your brain and suddenly you are faced with the cold hard reality of the 9 to 5 work-a-day world? You are going to be enraged when you realize how much struggle and discomfort it really takes just to pay the rent and put food in your stomach.

  Zennials think that older people somehow didn’t have to go through this, but they are misinformed. Nearly ALL OF US struggle in our twenties to get somewhere in life. MOST OF US have lived paycheck to paycheck in our early years. Once you enter adulthood it can take a couple of decades to accumulate any measure of wealth or success, but young people today are utterly impatient with the process and are clamoring for shortcuts. When they realize there are no shortcuts, they feel they have been wronged.

  There is a realization that comes to a person only through experience and heartache, and it is this: Life is not a violation of our comfort. Life is not something that is “done to us.” Life is unfair for a reason – It is a test of who we are and who we might become. Life is a relentless test.

  Collectivist gatekeepers will spin fantastic narratives of a future devoid of discomfort and free from responsibility. All you have to do is give up all your freedoms and the reward will be a perpetual childhood. It sounds nice, but it is quite evil in its design. Infantizing a society is the first step to enslaving a society. Being dependent on government means giving total control to government; government becomes the parent, and not all parents love their children.

  Big government and collectivism are also intoxicating weapons. Much like the “One Ring” in the Lord of The Rings, a lot of people think they can use it for good, but big government power corrupts everyone eventually. There are many people on the political left today that are basking in the dark side of this power. They love the intimidation of the mob, and they love that corporations and politicians are helping them to destroy their enemies.

  All social justice is built on the notion that the expectation of betterment is a form of bigotry. Seeing merit as a measure of a person’s value is deemed horrific. In a meritocracy these people have no power, but in a world of “equity” where people compete to see who is the most broken and the most oppressed the power goes to the those who can get the most handouts and special treatment.

  Then, there are people that are simply narcissistic and sociopathic, and these are traits that are highly valued in the social media culture and in collectivist regimes. In the new world there will be two types of people who will be allowed to succeed: The people that prove their victim status and the people that have no conscience. If you don’t have any defining social justice points to help you climb the diversity totem pole then you will be stuck, unless you are willing to do almost any evil to get ahead. And maybe this has always been the goal of the establishment – To get our culture to a place where evil is the most acceptable option.

  To be clear, there are millions of young Americans that are NOT on board with the collectivist program, but the longer the current dynamic goes on the harder it will be to reverse the damage already done by the system. Something is going to have to change very soon and rather violently. While the young are exploited through their fears of stepping into a world based on merit, collectivist tyranny will only continue to grow.

  *  *  *

  If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 20:20

• Manhattan Rents Jump Most On Record Despite Dismal Back-To-Office Return
  Manhattan Rents Jump Most On Record Despite Dismal Back-To-Office Return

  Even though the Omicron variant scare has slowed the back-to-office return across Manhattan, demand for apartments in the borough is booming.

  According to a new Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate report, median rent skyrocketed 23% in November compared with the same period last year to $3,369. The increase was the most on record as people are returning to the city for the nightlife, not necessarily back to the office. 

  

  November’s increase was the largest in a decade of Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate’s housing data, though median rent remains 3.8% below pre-pandemic levels. 

  Apartments are in high demand even as Kastle’s “Back to Work Barometer” for the metro area shows only 31% of office workers are back. This suggests that people are still working from home but want to be in the city as they miss cultural institutions, restaurants, bars, and nightlife. 

  

  “They just want to get back into the city — they’ve been away long enough,” Hal Gavzie, executive manager of leasing for Douglas Elliman, told Bloomberg. “There’s a kind of fatigue with being out of Manhattan and missing it.”

  Last month, upscale apartments in doorman buildings accounted for the most significant rent surge. The median rent jumped 27% from a year earlier to $4,108, above the November 2019 median of $4,016. Apartments without door attendants were in low demand. There was no reasoning why upscale apartments with helping staff were in high demand. One suggestion is the safety of the building as the metro area experiences a surge in violent crime under progressive leadership. 

  

  Meanwhile, on the commercial side of the market, retail rents plunged across Manhattan in October. An enormous glut of commercial restate, such as storefronts and office space, remain unleased. 

  More than a year ago, we noted NYC’s road to recovery would lag the rest of the country as the downturn could last until 2023. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 20:00

• The Joy Of Stealing
  The Joy Of Stealing

  Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

  I’ve been caught stealing
  Once, when I was five
  I enjoy stealing
  It’s just as simple as that

  Well, it’s just a, simple fact
  When I want something,
  And I don’t want to pay for it

  I walk right, through the door
  Walk right through the door
  Hey all right!
  If I get by, it’s mine
  Mine all mine!

  – Been Caught Stealing, by Jane’s Addiction

  “No Cause for Alarm”

  Robbery.  Theft.  Stealing.  These actions take many different forms.

  There’s fraud.  There’s force.  There’s white collar theft.  There’s crafty pickpockets.  House burglaries.  Insurance swindles.  Breaking and entering (B&E).  Hanoi-style.  Credit card scams.  Government kickbacks.  Hold ups.  Carjacking.  Embezzlement.  And much, Much More…

  They all generally roll up to the same thing.  Taking another person’s property (including money) without permission or legal right.

  Taking from others without permission, no doubt, is barbaric.  And barbarism is on the rise…

  Here in California there’s a bull market in plywood.  The material’s exceptionally suitable for boarding up broken windows following flash mob smash and grab robberies.  It also provides fortification against future attacks.

  In Los Angeles, for example, nearly $340,000 of merch was stolen by flash mobs between November 18 and 28.  These robberies also resulted in $40,000 in property damage.

  “No cause for alarm,” said Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti following the rash of smash and grabs.

  Fourteen people were arrested.  Yet they were all released long before the police reports were written.  In fact, many of the crooks met  Los Angeles County’s no-bail criteria.

  If you didn’t know, California’s statewide policy of imposing $0 bail for misdemeanors and lower-level felonies ended last year.  But here in LA County there’s no policy that’s too dumb to not extend.  The $0 bail policy was kept in place within the LA County Superior Court system.

  By implication, flash mob robberies are encouraged by LA County.  We’ll have more on robbery and theft in just a moment.  But first, some thoughts on retail…

  Knockout Punch

  Years of competition from online sales had left an extreme over capacity of brick and mortar stores.  There are simply too many shopping centers.  Why hassle with crowds when you can order whatever you want – and at the best price – from your kitchen table?

  Property managers have had to get creative to keep vacancy rates down.  Some shopping malls have filled empty space with indoor trampoline parks, laser tag, and virtual reality gaming and escape rooms.

  These amusement venues help maintain low vacancy rates.  They also bring in traffic and supply the food court with hungry customers.  But these businesses are not supported by the sort of production that drives real economic growth.  Rather, they symbolize the passing of the retail shopping center.

  Indeed, retail has been on the ropes for many years.  Government mandated lockdowns, however, appear to have delivered the knockout punch.  Forced isolation trained more and more people to shop online.

  Now there are an abundance of Amazon delivery vans double parking in the streets.  And vacant strip malls provide overnight parking for these vast fleets of Amazon vans.  They’re everywhere.

  At the same time, high end retail had appeared to have a more lasting niche.  Buying a $1,000 purse is about vanity; not functionality or convenience.  The fashion boutiques on Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills or Melrose Avenue in the Fairfax District flatter egos in the most special way.

  Posh retail shops seemed to be buffered from the online shopping assault.  But that was before ruffians smashed out the windows of Louis Vuitton and Saks Fifth Avenue last month in a failed smash and grab robbery on Rodeo Drive.

  Maybe next time the robbers will bring a bigger sledge hammer.  What then?

  The advent of flash mob smash and grab robberies is a function of several things.  Social media gives mobs the means to communicate.  Disgruntled individuals can network and quickly set a time and place to all show up and wreak havoc.

  The world wide web also gives them an enormous market where they can sell their spoils.  They’re no longer limited to swap meets and other black markets.  Thieves can go on eBay and sell their loot at below market prices.  The margins are phenomenal.

  These tech tools, along with lax penalties, support the mass plundering of retail stores.  But we think there’s something else at play.  Something even more sinister than smash and grab robberies.

  The Joy of Stealing

  You see, government policies of mass dollar debasement are what really stimulates barbarism.  Spineless money produces spineless people.  Once the abundance of fake money being issued so grossly favors the wealthy and elites, throwing bricks becomes an attractive option.

  

  We’re not justifying the mass thefts.  We’re opposed to any form of unprovoked aggression being committed against another person or property.  We also have eyes to see with.  And we’ve witnessed an entire class of people repeatedly commit massive theft without suffering personal consequences.

  For example, not one banker or mortgage broker that we know of went to jail for the mass fraud and theft that was perpetrated leading up to and following the 2008-09 housing market bubble and bust.  Not even Angelo Mozilo…who  personally pocketing $45 million in ill-gotten gains.  But even that’s small potatoes.

  Over the last 24 months, the Federal Reserve’s issued over $4.5 trillion of fake money, which the U.S. Treasury has spent into the economy.  All this free money comes with a steep penalty.  Like day after night and night after day, price inflation follows the mass issuance of fake money.

  Price inflation also acts to confiscate the savings and earnings of wage earners and retirees.  In addition, it leads to mass barbarism – and flash mob smash and grabs.  Here’s why…

  John Maynard Keynes, the godfather of modern day economic intervention, provided one of the better explanations of the relationship between money debasement and the economy.  What follows is an excerpt from The Economic Consequences of the Peace, written by Keynes in 1919:

  “Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency.  By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.  By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some.  The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.

  “Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become “profiteers,” who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat.  As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.

  “Lenin was certainly right.  There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.  The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

  This, without question, describes down to the T, precisely, the barbarism going on in America.

  Right now, today, unrelenting theft of a colossal scope and scale is being perpetrated by the federal government against American citizens…including you.  If that doesn’t bring warmth and joy to your heart, we don’t know what will.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 19:40

• Better.com CEO "Taking Time Off Effective Immediately" After Mass Zoom Firings Backlash
  Better.com CEO “Taking Time Off Effective Immediately” After Mass Zoom Firings Backlash

  Vishal Garg, the CEO of Better.com, who fired 900 employees, or 9% of its workforce, weeks before Christmas via a mass Zoom call, is “taking time off effective immediately” on Friday morning, according to Vice News. The controversial firings come ahead of a public merger with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. 

  On Dec. 1, Garg fired 900 employees over a three-minute Zoom call. He later admitted to “blundering the execution:” 

  “I failed to show the appropriate amount of respect and appreciation for the individuals who were affected and for their contributions to Better. I own the decision to do the layoffs, but in communicating it I blundered the execution. In doing so, I embarrassed you,” the CEO said, in a leaked email to employees.

  On Friday, the board of directors of the digital mortgage company emailed employees and said Garg is “taking time off effective immediately.” The email also said they hired an outside firm to “do a leadership and cultural assessment.” 

  Vice obtained the email Friday. Here’s what the board of directors told employees:

  Good Morning,

  Vishal and the Board wanted to provide Better employees an update given the very regrettable events over the last week.

  Vishal will be taking time off effective immediately. During this interim period Kevin Ryan as CFO will be managing the day-to-day decisions of the company and he will be reporting to the board. As well, the board has engaged an independent 3rd party firm to do a leadership and cultural assessment. The recommendations of this assessment will be taken into account to build a long-term sustainable and positive culture at Better. We have much work to do and we hope that everyone can refocus on our customers and support each other to continue to build a great company and a company we can be proud of.

  Better Board of Directors

  In a short Zoom call last Wednesday, the CEO told employees, “If you’re on this call, you are part of the unlucky group that is being laid off.” After the mass firing via teleconferencing, the CEO received sharp criticism for the firings. 

  

  The firings come ahead of a SPAC deal to take the company public. Better.com’s deal is through blank-check company Aurora Acquisition Corp. 

  TechCrunch has reported heads of Better.com’s PR, communications, and marketing departments resigned after the mass Zoom firing controversy. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 19:20

• World Economy Entering Period Of Oil Scarcity, Halliburton CEO Says
  World Economy Entering Period Of Oil Scarcity, Halliburton CEO Says

  Authored by Nicholas Dolinger via The Epoch Times,

  Halliburton CEO and president Jeff Miller made waves this week by predicting that the world is due for a period of oil scarcity in comments at the World Petroleum Congress in Houston, Texas.

  “I think that for the first time in a long time, we will see a buyer looking for a barrel of oil, as opposed to a barrel of oil looking for a buyer,” Miller said.

  Since 2014, the oil industry has generally deemphasized building new infrastructure in the face of low prices. However, that trend may now catch up with the industry, which now finds demand for oil exceeding the available supply given current infrastructure.

  

  Some analysts have speculated that it is increasingly likely that oil prices will soon climb to $100 per barrel, a price unseen in the past seven years and which has serious potential to disrupt the economy.

  An additional factor contributing to predicted oil scarcity is a labor shortage in the fossil fuel industry surpassing that in the general economy.

  The widespread perception that fossil fuels will be marginalized in the future of energy and transportation makes long-term careers in petroleum unattractive to young workers, with many oil workers seeking to switch to renewables or leave the energy industry outright.

  A recent survey revealed that 43 percent of oil industry employees sought to transition to other sectors in the next five years, as reported by Reuters.

  As baby boomer employees retire, the industry struggles to replace them with young workers, who see the oil industry as unfavorable to long-term careers because of concerns about climate change models, and pressure by politicians, environmentalists, and investors to transition to renewable energy sources.

  This combination of infrastructural underinvestment and labor shortages is likely to result in an oil supply stretched thin to meet demand, resulting in higher prices and possible shortages.

  With oil extraction occurring at a significant time lag from industry investment and the skill shortage in the labor industry showing no signs of abating, there are major reasons to believe that any scarcity in oil supplies could last long into the future.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 19:00

• New York Will Require Masks At All Indoor Businesses That Don't Have Vaccine Requirement
  New York Will Require Masks At All Indoor Businesses That Don’t Have Vaccine Requirement

  Gov. Kathy Hochul announced new COVID measures for New York Friday, implementing an indoor mask mandate for all businesses who don’t have a vaccine requirement in place, as the state encounters its most significant viral uptick in months across all core metrics (remember when the media made fun of Florida for this… good times). Refusing to comply with Friday’s order comes with a possible fine up to $1,000.

  It comes a day after the Democrat announced nearly three dozen upstate New York hospitals had to suspend non-essential elective procedures to secure bed capacity, part of what she described as a preemptive strike to “fight this impending surge.”

  According to NBC New York, starting Monday, patrons and staff across the state will be required to wear a mask at businesses and venues wear vaccines are not required for entry. This newest mandate, designed to combat increased virus spread at a time when people are spending more time indoors, will be in place through Jan. 15 when the state plans to re-evaluate its effectiveness.

  Hochul cited the state’s increasing cases, decreasing hospital bed capacity and low vaccination rates in her decision to implement an updated statewide mandate. She said the state’s vaccination rate is not rising fast enough to match the spike in hospitalizations and infections — the number of New Yorkers fully vaccinated since Thanksgiving has risen by 2%, whereas the seven-day case rate and hospitalizations since the holiday are up 43% and 29%, respectively.

  COVID-19 hospitalizations across the state – where 70% of the population are fully vaccinated – are at their highest levels since late April and have soared 86% in the last month alone, the latest data shows. Hochul and “health experts” say that’s a reflection of the still omnipresent grip of delta, which accounts for 99% of all genetically sequenced positive samples in New York — and the nation — and has been scientifically linked to more severe cases of infection.

  

  Daily COVID deaths in the state topped 50 (54) on Thursday for the first time in months, while the daily caseload topped 12,400 for the first time since late January. The latter increase could be reflective of omicron’s spread throughout the state. Hochul and New York City leaders have said community transmission appears to be well underway. While just 20 cases statewide have been detected so far (13 of them in New York City), officials believe the actual number is significantly higher.

  Those across-the-board upticks combined with the looming threat of holiday-related spikes warrant intense, early action, Hochul said.

  The previously announced order to suspend elective surgeries is designed to ease capacity strains on hospitals as COVID-19 cases surge. It only applies to hospitals that have less than 10% bed capacity available, many of which are in areas where Hochul says lower vaccination rates correlate with the higher, concerning metrics.

  “We continue to see an uptick in hospitalizations and this is a trend. You can draw a direct correlation between vaccination rates in an area and the number of hospitalizations,” Hochul said Thursday. “And we know it’s the indoors, the colder temperatures, but also the areas where people are more likely to be vaccinated.”

  Hochul said the state will reassess the surgery pauses on Jan. 15 because she doesn’t want to order long-term changes in protocol without an end date or a set time to reevaluate the situation.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 18:40

• UN Chief Accepts Invitation To Beijing Winter Olympics Despite Diplomatic Boycotts
  UN Chief Accepts Invitation To Beijing Winter Olympics Despite Diplomatic Boycotts

  Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

  United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has accepted the invitation to attend the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, despite diplomatic boycotts by several Western nations of the games in protest of the Chinese regime’s ongoing human rights violations in Xinjiang.

  “The secretary-general received an invitation from the International Olympic Committee to attend the opening of the Beijing Winter Games, and he has accepted it,” spokesman Stephanie Dujarric told reporters on Thursday.

  “I mean, as you know, I think his two immediate predecessors have attended almost every Olympic Game since at least 2002,” Dujarric added.

  

  This is despite the United States, along with several other Western nations, having announced diplomatic boycotts of the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics, citing the Chinese regime’s “ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang.”

  White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the athletes on Team USA would still compete in the Games, but that it would not send an official delegation.

  “U.S. diplomatic or official representation would treat these games as business as usual in the face of the PRC’s [People’s Republic of China] egregious human rights abuses and atrocities in Xinjiang, and we simply can’t do that,” Psaki told a daily press briefing on Dec. 6.

  

  In response, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said China would take “resolute countermeasures” against the United States over the boycott effort, without being specific on the countermeasures.

  Australia joined the United States in the boycott effort, citing human rights concerns in China and its disputes with Beijing—particularly on the foreign interference legislation for foreign investment, and Australia’s AUKUS security pact with the UK and the United States over nuclear-powered submarines.

  “Australia will not step back from the strong position we’ve had standing up for Australia’s interests and consistent with that position, then obviously it is no surprise that we wouldn’t be sending Australian officials to those games,” Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Dec. 8.

  The UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson said no ministers would attend the games as there will be “effectively a diplomatic boycott” of the Beijing Winter Olympics, but he maintained that the government doesn’t support sporting boycotts.

  Lithuania, Canada, and New Zealand also said they won’t send officials to the games, with New Zealand citing COVID-19 as the main reason.

  However, Wang said on Thursday that China wasn’t concerned about the diplomatic boycott, given that “quite a few” foreign leaders and members of royal families had registered to attend the games. China had no intention of inviting Canada and the UK, he said, adding that their absence would have no effect on the outcome of the games.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 18:20

• Jill Biden Insists POTUS's Brain Isn't Scrambled Eggs
  Jill Biden Insists POTUS’s Brain Isn’t Scrambled Eggs

  For the second time in less than 18 months, Jill Biden has insisted that her husband, the sitting President of the United States, is mentally fit to serve.

  

  In an interview with CBS‘ Rita Braver at Camp David, the First Lady dismissed recent polls indicating that Americans have questions about Joe Biden’s mental fitness.

  “Quite a few Americans have some questions about the president’s current mental fitness,” asked Braver.

  “I think that’s ridiculous,” replied Biden, insisting that her husband works ‘almost 24 hours a day.’

  First Lady Jill Biden opens up this Sunday about her life, her efforts to support her husband and looks back at their first year in office, in a rare interview at Camp David, the Presidential retreat in rural Maryland pic.twitter.com/lC7gpUSqjZ

  — CBS Sunday Morning 🌞 (@CBSSunday) December 9, 2021

  In a November Politico/Morning Consult survey noted in the interview, just 46% of those polled agreed with the statement “Joe Biden is mentally fit,” while 48% disagreed.

  GOP lawmakers have insisted that Biden, the oldest president in the history of the US at 81, take a cognitive test after multiple verbal blunders – which spox Jen Psaki has blamed on allergies according to the New York Post.

  Jill called Joe an “eternal optimist” who “keeps working at it.”

  The full interview will air on Sunday.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 18:00

• Americans Need A Conspiracy Theory They Can All Agree On
  Americans Need A Conspiracy Theory They Can All Agree On

  Authored by Patrick Armstrong via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  No subtlety of thought survives in the culture of unreason. Public space is populated with poseurs, cutouts, and imposters. Public discourse, with some exceptions, is much of the time not worth bothering with.

  – Patrick Lawrence: Obituary for Russiagate.

  There is a conspiracy theory that the CIA put the very expression into general use to discredit alternate theories about the murder of President Kennedy. Perhaps that’s true – there is a CIA document – but the expression has been around for a long time.

  At any event it has become a slur to discredit political opponents. The accusation replaces rational discussion.

  

  There have been actual conspiracies in history. There was a conspiracy to murder Caesar. And to murder Anwar Sadat. The Bolsheviks did conspire to take power and so did Guy Fawkes. Sometimes they succeeded – often surprising the conspirators – and sometimes they didn’t. Many times the conspirators thought the deed itself was all that needed to be done but Caesar was succeeded by Caesar and Sadat by his chosen successor. There are probably fewer conspiracies than people imagine but they do exist.

  Conspiracy theories abound in the USA today.

  But, it should be made clear from the outset of this discussion that there are two different kinds of conspiracy theories – unacceptable ones and acceptable ones.

  An example of the first kind is the assertion that Trump was cheated of victory by vote-faking in key areas. The assertion is “baseless”, pushed by the “far-right-wing” and the “deluded“; has been “debunked” in detail; its so-called arguments are “bogus, none credible“; there is “no evidence” and so on. The full weight of the corporate media stands against this idea and it flourishes only in the undergrowth. Nonetheless, 29% of Americans in a March survey “completely” or “mostly” agreed that the election had been stolen from Trump (66% of Republicans, 27% of independents and 4% (!) of Democrats). So that particular conspiracy theory has significant support.

  Other conspiracy theories are respectable: for example the one that the Russians got Trump elected in the first place. Loudly trumpeted by the corporate media for the entirety of his term, the indictment of a principal source of the famous dossier ought to have killed it. But no: to the believers the revelation that a key foundation of the conspiracy theory was a made-up and paid-for fraud makes no difference – “Even if every single word in the Steele dossier was wrong, that would not change the fact that the Russians sought to manipulate the US election“; “it wasn’t a hoax“; the fact that it was a fake was further proof that it was Kremlin-managed.

  And so the American population is divided between those who think that Putin won the 2016 US presidential election and those who think Trump won the 2020 election. There is no common ground.

  A lot has been written about conspiracy theories, the how and why of them – here’s one and there’s plenty more. But something that is seldom mentioned in these discussions is falsifiability. As Karl Popper argued, a real theory must be capable of being proved false. There must be some imaginable empirical datum that would disprove it. Sometimes, as with the addition of the Lorentz transformations to Newtonian/Galilean transformations, an old theory is proven to be accurate but incomplete. Sometimes an old theory is completely disproven as the aether theory was by the Michelson-Morley experiment. But all real theories are falsifiable. A scientific theory, in short, is true until someone proves that it isn’t. As Richard Feynman said: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”. And, as another great physicist observed, these changes are not necessarily accomplished by rational argument: “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents… but rather because its opponents eventually die.”

  This principle can also be applied to conspiracy theories. For example, if it could be established that Dominion voting machines can not be connected to the Internet, that fact would be a fatal blow to one of the pillars of the Trump won story. Likewise, if it could be established that a fundamental source of the Dossier was a fake then a pillar of the Putin elected Trump story falls. A theory that cannot be falsified is nonsense. Likewise a theory whose believers will never accept any contrary evidence is nonsense. Q-Anon rolls on for years promising the Complete Revelation every tomorrow and the one after that; the Russiagate conspiracy theory rolls on mutating as required.

  The more contrary evidence, the more tightly believers cling to them. Actual conspiracy theories therefore are not falsifiable because they’re all conspiracy and no theory.

  If they are falsifiable, therefore, “conspiracy theories” are theories; no modifier. The examples in the article cited above – Pizzagate, Q-Anon, Obama’s place of birth and Soros – all happen to be theories that violate conventional wisdom and therefore are tossed into the conspiracy theory bin by the conventionally-inclined. Typically, the author makes no mention of a conspiracy theory that occupied far more space and effort and had much greater effect on the real world than any of these. And that’s because Trumputin was conventional wisdom, pushed every day by the corporate media, and the others weren’t. Trumputin was said to have “a mountain of evidence” and “proof“; the others were dismissed without consideration.

  In short, rather than using the useless expletive “conspiracy theory”, it would be more accurate to say that theories that run counter to conventional wisdom abound in the United States today. Some of them – Q-Anon – fail the test of falsifiability, others do not. Some have received enough attention to make them more or less probable, others have not.

  In this respect, it is appropriate to look at what Americans think of their mass media. To an older generation “I read it in the paper” meant something but a Gallup poll in October tells us that it doesn’t mean much today. Only 7% of US adults surveyed had a “great deal” of “trust and confidence” and 29% “a fair amount”; the “trusters” were outnumbered by the 29% who had “none at all” and 34% “not very much”; in 1997 the trusters were 53%. Does anyone expect that decline to reverse? Another poll says the USA ranks last in media trust of 86 countries. One more shows a major political division. No one should be surprised – the mainstream media was full of one conspiracy theory and ignored the other.

  COVID-19 is another revelation that there are two separate islands of opinion. Take, for example, the simple factual question – yes or no – did Dr Fauci’s organisation fund gain-of-function experiments in the Wuhan laboratory? A rather important matter, one would think. Snopes, that reliable defender of the status quo, says “unproven” in May in a long-winded piece. Denied by Fauci in May: “The NIH has not ever and does not now fund gain-of-function research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.” Two Pinocchios said the WaPo. But finally admitted in October: “a top official at the National Institutes of Health has conceded that contrary to the repeated assertions of Dr. Anthony Fauci, the NIH did indeed fund highly dangerous gain-of-function research on bat-borne coronaviruses in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.” And more: “The annual report described the group’s work from June 2017 to May 2018, which involved creating new viruses using different parts of existing bat coronaviruses and inserting them into humanized mice in a lab in Wuhan, China. The work was overseen by the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is headed by Anthony Fauci.” And so May’s conspiracy theory became October’s fact.

  Did the virus leak from these US-funded experiments? No one knows but it cannot be ruled out. As to Dr Fauci himself, he may have overreached by telling his critics that he represents science; when even the WaPo carries a piece entitled “Fauci Can’t Use Science to Excuse His Missteps” perhaps his best-before date is nearing. Despite the prayer candles. In this respect, the fate of Robert Kennedy’s book, The Real Dr Fauci, is indicative; it’s Number One on Amazon with 96% five-star ratings. This is the more remarkable because of the full-scale attack on him from the establishment media: he is “the dumbest Kennedy“; “race-baiting ‘documentary’ and disinformation to advance bogus theories and seed anti-vaccine sentiment“; “documented history of promoting debunked theories about vaccines“; banned on social media. Tucker Carlson, in “a new escalation of his anti-science rhetoric”, had an interview “with longtime anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.” Nonetheless, a lot of people are buying and reading it. These media campaigns don’t work as well as they used to. Indeed the 29% who had no trust at all probably believe the reverse of what the conventional media says. I know I do: if they’re all shouting the sane thing, I take it as a powerful indicator that the opposite is true. We should read Western media the way the Soviets read theirs.

  However, there are unrelenting attempts to create conspiracy theories that all Americans can agree on.

  

  For years we have had the conspiracy theory that Putin is behind everything bad; in its current manifestation he’s about to invade Ukraine (or as the US Defense Secretary put it: “an incursion by the Soviet Union into the Ukraine“).

  Another fast-growing set of conspiracy theories focus on China, the “Wuhan lab leak” being one example. (Dangerous that because of Fauci’s funding of GoF research in Wuhan). China is about to invade Taiwan or starving Uyghers are forced to stuff themselves with pork or tennis players are disappeared; these conspiracy theories are safer. One of the principal pushers of the first conspiracy theory is switching to the other: he senses the change in the party line.

  And there’s always North Korea where the rats eat the babies and the babies eat the rats.

  The China conspiracy theory seems to be working – a survey by the Reagan Foundation found that 52% saw China as the “greatest threat” to the USA (Russia well behind at 14% and North Korea just behind it at 12%). Three years ago Russia was 30% to China’s 21%. More striking is that China has gained twenty points since February. Can the Putin-won-2016/Trump-won-2020 divide be bridged by a Chinadunnit conspiracy theory?

  But agreeing on a common enemy is one thing, the internal divisions are something else. In this respect the Reagan Foundation survey cited above is indicative. It finds that disbelief is spreading rapidly in the American population: trust in all institutions is dropping; confidence in the US military is dropping; support for active global leadership is dropping. A survey just now shows a slight majority of American youth regarding their democracy as in trouble. Not the strongest foundation for more foreign adventures.

  A deeply divided country: there is no common conversation in the United States today – one person’s conspiracy theory is another’s truth.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 17:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• UK Health Secretary Says "Unethical" Mandatory Vaccination "Will Not Work"
  UK Health Secretary Says “Unethical” Mandatory Vaccination “Will Not Work”

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  The UK health secretary has stated that he has ‘no interest’ in legislating for mandatory COVID vaccinations, describing such a policy as ‘unethical’.

  

  In an interview with the BBC, Sajid Javid said “My view is that it’s unethical and also at a practical level it wouldn’t work.”

  Javid added, “If you’re asking me about universal mandatory vaccination, as some countries in Europe have said they will do, at a practical level I just don’t think it would work. Getting vaccinated has to be a positive choice.”

  In a separate Sky News interview, Javid added “I’ve got no interest in mandatory vaccinations, apart from in high-risk settings in the NHS and social care, which we’ve already set out that we will legislate for.”

  The comments come a day after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there will “come a point” for a “national conversation” on mandatory vaccinations.

  Watch:

  Sajid Javid on mandatory vaccines.
  “My view us that’s it’s unethical and also at a practical level, it won’t work.”
  “It has to be a positive decision.”
  However he is adamant it will be mandatory for the NHS.
  Coming forward with the regulation next week? https://t.co/Te2w0WJOun

  — Lottie Nightingale (@Valkyrie20201) December 9, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Those reacting to Javid’s comments point out that for months Brits were told new lockdowns were not coming, then the government implemented them, and that vaccine passports would never be introduced, yet this week they were, as has been the plan all along.

  Sajid Javid saying they’re introducing vaccine passports but not mandatory jabs so it sounds less authoritarian. In the same way we were promised “vaccine passports wouldn’t happen but we need lockdown” a year ago. Why should we trust that mandatory vaccines won’t happen?

  — Andrew (@Takeawaymoneyuk) December 9, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Javid: “We believe mandatory jabs are unethical. Well…just to be clear…they’re unethical until such time as our super prisons are finished, after that they’re ethical as fuck.”

  — Bitcoin and Golf UK (@BitcoinandGolf) December 9, 2021

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  Wasn’t the view that vaccine passports were discriminatory and that the government weren’t even considering them? So mandatory vaccines coming soon.

  — Susie (@YarlanZey) December 9, 2021

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  When asked if the Government would be introducing mandatory vaccinations, Sajid Javid said ‘no’ they would be ‘unethical’.

  So, that’s a ‘YES’ then?

  — Knights of Whitty (@Scott79358632) December 9, 2021

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  Mandatory vaccinations next?https://t.co/Z8Aqxn25Jz

  — JohnBot (@John889910) December 9, 2021

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  Yet there are mandatory jabs for care home workers, and soon the NHS.

  You own this duplicity @sajidjavid

  — Paul Shackleton (@PaulShack56) December 9, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  We heard this bs over vaccine passports you are all liars and are now a cartel government with no morals no compassion no empathy no humanity no regard for #humanrights

  Covid latest news: Sajid Javid says no to ‘unethical’ mandatory vaccinationshttps://t.co/vXNNyvvrU4

  — Missbutterfly (@MISSXBUTTERFLYX) December 9, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 12/10/2021 – 02:00

• Critical Race Theory Serves To Usher In Communist Agenda In America, Philosophy Professor Says
  Critical Race Theory Serves To Usher In Communist Agenda In America, Philosophy Professor Says

  Authored by Terri Wu and Jen Jekielek via The Epoch Times,

  Critical race theory has become the philosophic foundation supporting a Marxist communist agenda sweeping American society, according to philosophy professor Jason Hill.

  

  Acting as racial managers or agents for African Americans, practitioners of critical race theory (CRT) are after power and aim to “destroy all those foundational values, all those codified values, and principles that we use in times of crisis,” Hill said in a recent interview with Epoch TV’s “American Thought Leaders” program.

  Critical race theorists “want to first erase personal identity, then erase history, erase those codified values to usher in a new, what I would call, Marxist communist agenda in our society,” he added.

  CRT’s view of America as systemically racist is “a misperception of reality,” Hill said.

  This central proposition—that the oppression of African Americans still persists today—is then used to justify CRT practitioners speaking on behalf of all black Americans, depriving the community of their own agency, according to Hill. But these activists don’t actually care about uplifting the black population, he added.

  “It befuddles me to see how someone who’s living in Appalachia in a trailer park, who has no access to water, healthcare, is a walking practitioner of racism.”
  @JasonDHill6 on reparations, white guilt & the “age of post-oppression”

  🔴WATCH @EpochTVus: https://t.co/PbGmw7U6dT pic.twitter.com/2ereoU1nJn

  — Jan Jekielek (@JanJekielek) November 13, 2021

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  Hill’s own experience in America, detailed in his 2018 book “We Have Overcome: An Immigrant’s Letter to the American People,” presents an alternative view to CRT’s portrayal of racism in the United States.

  With $120 in his pocket, Hill immigrated to the United States from Jamaica at 20. He worked to earn tuition for his degrees, including a doctorate in philosophy from Purdue University, and eventually became a tenured professor of philosophy at DePaul University in Chicago.

  “When I came to this country, I promised that, in the name of the best within me, I would cultivate the American virtues of individualism and personal excellence and take advantage of the opportunities that lay before me,” said Hill in an opinion article published in 2018.

  In his view, as the 1964 Civil Rights Act became effective, American society entered an “age of post-oppression” because the legislation gave African Americans legal equality.

  Yet, black rage—not gratitude, nor a sense of relief—was an unexpected reaction to the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Hill told The Epoch Times. He said the outcome was because of “a tremendous identity crisis” black Americans faced since their identity had been forged by oppression until then. As a result, white people felt guilty and embarrassed about putting African Americans in such a situation.

  Meanwhile, a self-esteem and self-respect movement centered upon pride in the African American identity emerged in the 1960s, Hill wrote in his new book “What Do White Americans Owe Black People: Racial Justice in the Age of Post-Oppression.”

  CRT emerged in the 1970s, initially as an offshoot of critical legal theory examining the role of race in law. Derrick Bell, an African American and a civil rights lawyer often credited as one of the originators of CRT, held that racial progress only occurred in America when it aligned with the interests of the white population, and doubted whether racial equality would ever be achieved.

  Hill says the CRT currently practiced is the third iteration of the movement, with the first in the 1970s under Bell and a second version in the 1990s. Today’s CRT has become the “philosophic foundation” for reparations and a “philosophic template” for many groups such as Black Lives Matter, a left-wing activist group that promotes “racial justice” in law enforcement and other domains, to find their justification.

  According to Hill, who considers himself an African American, African Americans should practice “radical forgiveness” to look to the future instead of pursuing reparations for past injustices.

  In his new book, he writes that the relinquishment of one’s racial identity is “an act of radical freedom.” That doesn’t mean that an individual doesn’t recognize their race; it just means that race won’t be one’s standard-bearer. In Hill’s view, culture, rather than race, serves as a more objective differentiator of individuals because culture points to common traits in beliefs, customs, and traditions.

  Hill suggested in his book an idea of a “heroic racial traitor,” a satirical name because one who didn’t base one’s identity primarily on one’s race might be considered as a “traitor” in certain communities. This person would forgive the systemic racism before emancipation, and focus on leveraging the opportunities provided by full equality before the law to achieve individual identification and success.

  Watch the full interview with Dr. Jason Hill below, or watch and read the full transcript on EpochTV.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 23:40

• US "Successfully" Upgrades Nuclear Gravity Bomb For Modern Battlefield
  US “Successfully” Upgrades Nuclear Gravity Bomb For Modern Battlefield

  The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) announced Thursday it had “successfully” modernized the first B61 nuclear gravity bomb to increase the nation’s air-delivered nuclear deterrent capability amid threats of war with Russia in Ukraine and China in the South China Sea and or in the Taiwan Strait. 

  Over the years, we’ve been documenting (read: here & here) NNSA’s $12 billion program to modify aging B61 thermonuclear gravity bombs for the modern battlefield. The weapons first entered service in the late 1960s and needed upgrades to be more effective and increase lifespan by another two decades. 

  

  The first B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb paves the way for an estimated 480 bombs. NNSA expects full-scale production to begin in May 2022 and last through 2026. 

  “With this program, we’re delivering a system to the Department of Defense that improves accuracy and reduces yield with no change in military characteristics, while also improving safety, security and reliability,” Department of Energy Under Secretary and NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby stated.

  Last week, #NNSA successfully completed the B61-12 First Production Unit @PantexPlant. This is a huge milestone for stockpile modernization and demonstrates our Nation’s commitment to #nuclear deterrence. pic.twitter.com/90ojHPw6cH

  — NNSA Administrator (@NNSAHruby) December 2, 2021

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  Deputy NNSA Administrator for Defense Programs Charles Verdon said it’s “extremely satisfying” to see the B61-12 enter production. 

  “This successful effort results from years of seamless execution between our NNSA and U.S. Air Force teams. The integration of the NNSA Bomb Assembly and the Boeing Tailkit Assembly as well as the joint certification on multiple aircraft platforms stands as a testament to our continued commitment to national security and that of our allies and partners,” Verdon said. 

  We’ve noted multiple airframes, such as the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagle, have been conducting mock nuclear attacks with inert B61-12 over the past two years. 

  

  The nuclear gravity bomb upgrade is more than a year late. We noted bomb production was supposed to begin in 2020. The upgraded version can carry low-yield nukes to 50 kilotons nuclear bombs, guided by an advanced Boeing tail kit. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 23:20

• Shellenberger: Why Looting Turned San Francisco Into A Ghost Town
  Shellenberger: Why Looting Turned San Francisco Into A Ghost Town

  Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Substack,

  Usually at this time of year, San Francisco’s luxury stores are decked with holiday garlands. Instead, they’re boarded up after widespread “flash mob” looting turned Union Square — the city’s most fashionable shopping district — into an area resembling a blighted neighborhood in Detroit. 

  “It’s a ghost town,” said Michelle Tandler, a San Francisco native and high-tech entrepreneur, whose photos of the stores barricaded in plywood went viral on social media this week. “Every store has a security guard. People are going to lose their jobs. And these things have a ripple effect.”

  Two weeks ago, San Francisco was the first of several progressive cities hit by smash-and-grab mobs of thieves, sometimes as many as 80 in a group. Video from the San Francisco looting of Louis Vuitton shows criminals walking casually out of the store, goods in hand. Other cities hit include Los Angeles, Chicago and Minneapolis. 

  “This is traumatizing for our associates and is unacceptable,” said Best Buy CEO Corie Barry four days before yet another outlet was ransacked on Black Friday in a Minnesota mall. “We are doing everything we can to try to create as safe as possible environment.”

  

  These viral photos of boarded-up boutiques in San Francisco’s upscale Union Square district this week are a bleak encapsulation of the city’s approach to crime. Originally published in The New York Post.

  There may be several factors behind the looting.

  Part of the problem is a lack of police. San Francisco and other cities are short of cops, making robberies easier to get away with. San Francisco is short 400 officers, Los Angeles 300, with Minneapolis down by 200.

  Total police officers in the United States declined by 20,000 between 2008 and 2018, due to a tighter labor market, rising technological complexity within the profession, and the high psychological toll of policing. Anti-police protests following the death of George Floyd in May 2020 have led to further attrition.

  Progressive prosecutors are also letting more criminals free, sending the message that theft is an understandable response to poverty. In early 2020, San Francisco’s progressive District Attorney, Chesa Boudin, told the co-founder of Black Lives Matter before an audience at the Commonwealth Club that wealth inequality caused crime, and declared he would reduce prosecution of theft.

  “We have some of the richest people in the history of the world in this city,” he said.

  “Fortunes never imaginable 10 or 20 or 50 years ago. . . . When we have those extremes in close proximity, there’s going to be some level of property crime. That’s a reality.”

  DA Boudin has charged just 46 percent of theft arrests, a 16 point decline since he took office in 2020, and charged just 35 percent of petty theft arrests, a 23 point decline from two years ago.

  Meanwhile, more suspects are being let free before their court date, even though more than half of all offenders – and three-quarters of the most violent ones – released from San Francisco jails before their trial go on to commit new crimes.

  Would-be criminals rationalize what they are about to do before they do it. They think to themselves that nobody is hurt by robbing Louis Vuitton or even a Zara store. If they are clever, they might even justify to themselves that it is a good thing, since their actions redistribute wealth. Criminals since the 1960s have defended their crimes as the acts of revolutionary anti-capitalists.

  Such is the logic of socialism. The real crime, according to Karl Marx and others for the last 150 years, is private property and capitalism. “Property is theft” is one of the socialist movement’s most important slogans. Thus, the argument goes, any real-world crime — from robbing Louis Vuitton to assaulting a rich person — should be viewed as a revolutionary act. Anything that takes wealth from the rich and distributes it more equally, including pain, could be considered for the greater “good.”

  While criminal justice progressives say they seek “alternatives” to incarceration, those alternatives require little from the people released, not even abstinence. Such was the case with Darrell Brooks, Jr., the suspect in the killing of six people and wounding at least 40 others in Waukesha, Wis., by running them over in his car. The man had been released on $1,000 bail after running over his girlfriend, just three weeks earlier.

  Progressives have a more simplistic vision than they let on. To the public they promise a myriad of good ideas, including electronic monitoring, assertive case management and drug rehab. But pretrial diversion and other “alternatives” to prison have allowed criminals, sometimes even homicidal ones, to simply go free.

  DA Boudin has made his true intentions clear.

  “The challenge going forward,” he said at the Commonwealth Club in 2020, “is how do we close a jail?”

  Being soft on criminals has its consequences.

  For San Francisco, the result is a ghost town.

  For decades, this Bay Area destination has held conferences where it held itself up to the world as a model of a “livable, walkable” city.

  Not any more.

  “People are scared to go downtown,” native resident Tandler told me.

  “This is the destruction of a city.”

  *  *  *

  Michael Shellenberger is a Time Magazine “Hero of the Environment,”Green Book Award winner, and the founder and president of Environmental Progress. He is author of just launched book San Fransicko (Harper Collins) and the best-selling book, Apocalypse Never (Harper Collins June 30, 2020). Subscribe To Michael’s substack here

  Donate to Environmental Progress

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 23:00

• Beijing Scrambles To Hammer Yuan, Sets Fixing At Weakest On Record Vs Estimates
  Beijing Scrambles To Hammer Yuan, Sets Fixing At Weakest On Record Vs Estimates

  Just two days ago, we made a simple observation: in a world, where virtually every central bank was tightening, China was now aggressively easing – something we said would happen months ago when we discussed the plunge in China’s credit impulse – even though the “experts” said this was impossible with PPI inflation running red hot in the double digits (the experts were wrong).

  While the rest of the world is still tightening, China is now easing despite every fin talking head saying just a month ago this is impossible with double digit PPI.

  Coming to every banana republic near you soon.

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 8, 2021

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  Then, just two days later, with the Yuan clearly ignoring the PBOC’s very clear and direct easing intentions (and actions) and continuing to surge, China made it very clear that it will no longer tolerate a stronger yuan early this morning, when Beijing hiked its FX reserve ratio from 7% to 9%, pushing the yuan sharply lower.

  

  Even so, some were not convinced that the Chinese central bank means business and proceeded to bid up the offshore yuan overnight into Friday in China. So, just to make it clear that the PBOC is serious, moments ago the PBOC sent out another clear shot across the bow of higher yuan expectations, when it fixed the yuan at a whopping 179 pips higher than consensus at 6.3702. This was the largest miss vs surveyed market participants’ fixing expectations on record, and followed China’s fix on Thursday which was already the largest miss since Oct. 14.

  The news promptly sent the CNH sliding further, dropping as far as 6.3893 against the dollar…

  

  … before sharply reversing, making China’s life even more difficult in the process.

  As Bloomberg’s Simon Flint writes, “this is an extremely strong signal, and should prolong the impact of the policy change announced on Thursday”… only as shown in the chart above, it did just the opposite and the yuan actually strengthen shortly after the kneejerk reaction.

  In any case, as Flint further notes, the average deviation in December is now around +32pips, more than double the January “record” of 14pips for 2021. In this respect, he writes, “the fairly obvious use of a de facto counter-cyclical factor (CCF) throughout 2021, despite CCF’s supposed suspension back in October 2020, begs the question as to why the authorities don’t admit to explicit use of CCF.”

  An official announcement of the reintroduction of CCF, along with an explanation for its reintroduction — i.e. that there is herding behavior or one-way expectations — would intensify its signal. However, this may be a last resort, given that such an announcement may open up the authorities to charges of obvious FX manipulation.

  … which of course would be problematic with the US just days earlier absolving China – and every other country – of FX manipulation in the Treasury’s biannual report (in which it did however criticize China of a lack of transparency on the yuan).

  In any case, as noted earlier in the previous post that the “PBOC May Do More To Curb Yuan After Drawing Line“, the rebound in the Yuan despite the record low fixing vs expectations, means that the PBOC will have to aggressively pursue one of the four options, previously delineated by Goldman:

  • More verbal warnings against one-way bets
  • Officially adding back the countercyclical factors to its yuan fixing, essentially setting the yuan weaker than otherwise
  • Accumulate dollar reserves and/or ask state banks and experts to hold dollars
  • Liberalizing FX outflows and tightening the channels for inflows.

  Among these tools, as Bloomberg’s Ye Xie noted, “the most effective would be allowing more outbound investments to offset the inflows.” But while authorities have already done some of that, including the launch of the Southbound bond connect that allows local residents to buy overseas bonds in Hong Kong, clearly it is not enough.

  Which leads us to a very ironic question: will China realize what has been clear to the Fed for so long, and use cryptocurrencies as an excess pressure “release valve”, in this case letting cryptocurrencies absorb a measured amount of FX outflows to avoid further overheating in the yuan.

  Of course, for that to happen, China will have to unburn all those bridges it torched mercilessly earlier this year when it sought to crush bitcoin in its foolish pursuit of widespread acceptance of China’s epic FX flop, the communist surveillance apparatus that is the digital yuan (which has so far been a catastrophic failure). Still, if it means avoiding an overheating currency just as China’s GDP is set to drop below 5% for the first time in its modern history, we are confident that Beijing will find a way to “look the other way” as China’s oligarchs park several hundred billions Yuan into cryptos…

   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 22:44

• Head Of President Biden's Security Detail Retires To Go Work On Wall Street
  Head Of President Biden’s Security Detail Retires To Go Work On Wall Street

  There’s nothing like the free market putting a little irony on display for all the world to adore.

  Such was the case when the increasingly Democratic-socialist President Joe Biden recently saw the head of his security detail leave duty in order to take a job on Wall Street.

  Biden’s top security brass is reportedly “retiring” to take a job” with a New York investment firm”, according to Bloomberg.

  The security guard, David Cho, has worked for the U.S. Secret Service for more than 25 years, the report says. He is the first Korean American to become special agent in charge of protecting the President. 

  

  Cho’s deputy, Darryl Volpicelli, is slated to replace him, the report says. 

  Cho received the department’s Exceptional Service Gold Medal in 2019 while serving President Trump. 

  We guess that while protecting the President may be a nice thing to put on your resume, it’s then only good for helping you find a job where you can make some real money…

  It’s almost as if making money can actually motivate people to be productive. Maybe someone should inform the President and his pals in “the squad” of this.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 22:40

• TikTok Reportedly Censors Pro-Rittenhouse Video As "Hate Speech"
  TikTok Reportedly Censors Pro-Rittenhouse Video As “Hate Speech”

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  We have repeatedly addressed how social media companies now openly engage in censorship of political and social viewpoints. The latest example is from the company TikTok which reportedly censored a video from the Young Americans for Liberty (YAL) group supporting Kyle Rittenhouse.  The video discusses the effort of Arizona State University (ASU) students to ban Rittenhouse from campus. TikTok then banned the pro-Rittenhouse statement from its platform, an act that should be offensive to anyone who supports the values of free speech. 

  

  On December 1, the group posted a video stating:

  “After Kyle Rittenhouse revealed that he had enrolled as an online student at ASU [Arizona State University], the collegiate woke mob was unleashed. A coalition of student groups has started a campaign to demand that Kyle Rittenhouse be expelled from ASU, citing that he is a violent racist murderer and poses a threat to the whole student body.”

  First of all, he was acquitted. And second of all, he was enrolled as an online student. Therefore, he will never interact with any of these social justice warriors. Therefore, they are trying to deny this young man a college education simply because they disagree with his beliefs and his actions. That is a dangerous precedent to set.”

  Censorship has become an article of faith for many on the left. Faculty and editors are now actively supporting modern versions of book-burning with blacklists and bans for those with opposing political views. Columbia Journalism School Dean Steve Coll has denounced the “weaponization” of free speech, which appears to be the use of free speech by those on the right. So the dean of one of the premier journalism schools now supports censorship.

  Free speech advocates are facing a generational shift that is now being reflected in our law schools, where free speech principles were once a touchstone of the rule of law. As millions of students are taught that free speech is a threat and that “China is right” about censorship, these figures are shaping a new society in their own intolerant images.

  In one critical hearing, tech CEOs appeared before the Senate to discuss censorship programs. Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey apologized for censoring the Hunter Biden laptop story, but then pledged to censor more people in defense of “electoral integrity.”

  Delaware Sen. Chris Coons, however, was not happy. He was upset not by the promised censorship but that it was not broad enough.

  He noted that it was hard to define the problem of “misleading information,” but the companies had to impose a sweeping system to combat the “harm” of misinformation on climate change as well as other areas. “The pandemic and misinformation about COVID-19, manipulated media also cause harm,” Coons said. “But I’d urge you to reconsider that because helping to disseminate climate denialism, in my view, further facilitates and accelerates one of the greatest existential threats to our world.”

  Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal also warned that he and his colleagues would not tolerate any “backsliding or retrenching” by “failing to take action against dangerous disinformation.” He demanded “the same kind of robust content modification” from the companies – the new Orwellian term for censorship.

  If this account is accurate (and TikTok has not denied it), the company is now censoring statements of support for an individual acquitted by an American jury. It is the latest example of the slippery slope of censorship on social media.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 22:20

• America's Public Education System Is Collapsing As Teachers' Unions Force Schools To Close
  America’s Public Education System Is Collapsing As Teachers’ Unions Force Schools To Close

  America helped to pioneer the idea of public education. But a growing number of teachers and parents are wondering if the pandemic has finally broken America’s system of public education, as a growing number of school districts close schools for days or weeks, sometimes without the option of going remote.

  The NYT published a deep dive on the issues afflicting public schools across the US, issues that also impact the workforce since parents who can’t bring kids to school are often stuck scrambling for child care.

  

  One example of how schools are rolling back services as the struggle with budget shortfalls continues: Schools in Detroit, a city that has supposedly made a strong rebound after filing for bankruptcy protection back in 2013, will close its schools on Friday for the rest of the school year. There will be no online classes.

  Parents were outraged by the news, but a few days later, Detroit schools announced that schools would be closed for the entire week of Thanksgiving. Typically, kids are in school Monday and Tuesday, with a half-day on Wednesday.

  Of course, Detroit’s schools aren’t the only ones making these cutbacks. At least six other school districts in Michigan extended Thanksgiving break, and three districts in Washington State, including Seattle Public Schools, unexpectedly closed on Nov. 12, the day after Veterans Day. In Florida, Brevard Public Schools used leftover “hurricane days” to close schools for the entire week of Thanksgiving.

  In Utah, the Canyons School District announced that all of its schools would go remote one Friday a month from November through March, equivalent to more than a week of school.

  Parents aren’t only worried about logistical problems like child care and supervising remote learning: they’re starting to worry that the drastic cutbacks to educational services during the pandemic will leave their children permanently behind. Keep in mind, in China, students are spending more time in school, not less.

  For many school districts, the switch back to remote learning for at least part of the school week is a last-ditch effort to stop teachers from resigning (or retiring) en masse.

  And it’s not just the mask requirements that are getting to teachers. The last year has seen a surge in school violence, sometime gang-related, as students lash out. Teachers are exhausted from COVID, and from other issues like the battle over teaching CRT in classrooms.

  What’s worse is that school closures this year have often come with little notice. When administrators at Reynolds Middle School in Fairview Ore. cancelled classses between Nov. 18 and Dec. 7 – giving students an unplanned two weeks off due to what the school described as a “school fights and other outbursts from students”.

  The announcement gave parents just two days notice. Many were infuriated. “Are you kidding me?” said Missy Kisselman, the mother of Sophia, an eighth grader there. “I mean, are you kidding me?”

  Reactions like these will likely become even more commonplace as teachers unions push for even more days off. In Portland, Ore., the teachers’ union is proposing early-release days for some of its schools after students return from winter break. The president of the schools’ teachers’ union said they’re doing so because of the “alarming” number of teachers asking for guidance about retiring or quitting.

  Elizabeth Thiel, president of the Portland Association of Teachers, says her union is receiving an “alarming” number of inquiries from teachers asking for help resigning. If the union can figure out a plan now, she says, that may help avoid mass resignations, which would force schools to go entirely remote.

  “It is far better for our students and families to be able to plan on an inconvenience like that, than it would be for the whole system to stop functioning,” Ms. Thiel said.

  Remote learning is simply too much for most parents, especially single parents. If it becomes permanent, then pretty soon it won’t just be teachers abandoning public schools – parents might move students to private schools or charter schools.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 22:00

• PBOC May Do More To Curb Yuan After Drawing Line
  PBOC May Do More To Curb Yuan After Drawing Line

  By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst

  The PBOC has sent the strongest signal yet that its tolerance for currency appreciation has run out. By raising the FX reserve ratio for a second time this year, it may temporarily halt the yuan’s rise. But it did not address the drivers of the rally that sent the trade-weighted yuan to the strongest since 2015: the massive dollars inflows from exporters and portfolio investments. To keep the exchange rate in check, it needs to open up channels to allow money to leak out.

  The PBOC announced Thursday night that banks will need to hold 9% of their foreign currencies in reserve starting Dec. 15, from the current 7%. The reserve-ratio hike effectively drains the supply of dollars onshore, thus supporting the greenback against the yuan. It’s the second increase this year, following a similar move in June, which was the first hike since 2007.

  The move prompted the offshore yuan to decline 0.5%, the most since July. While the mechanical impact of the move itself is moderate, the signal is unequivocal that PBOC is getting uneasy about the currency rally. The central bank has repeatedly warned about FX volatility and consistently fixed the currency weaker than analysts expected in recent weeks. It’s probably not a coincidence, then, that both hikes came when the yuan.

  

  But Thursday’s move alone is unlikely to hold back the yuan for long. What’s behind the rally was the influx of dollars from exports and investment inflows. Neither forces are likely to reverse soon. The pandemic has bolstered China’s status as the factory of the world, while cutting off overseas traveling, a main channel for capital outflows. The inflows to its bond market are structural in nature as sovereign wealth funds, central banks and index followers just start to add Chinese assets into their portfolio.

  Keep in mind that these dollar inflows haven’t been fully converted to yuan. It’s a source of dry powder that could push the currency stronger if China Inc. decides to exchange their dollar holdings for yuan. Foreign-currency deposits at banks have surged 15% this year to a record $1 trillion, more than the FX loans they can dole out.

  

  Banks have been so desperate to find homes for these “excess” dollars that they tapped the once little-used foreign-currency reverse repo market (which is effectively collateralized dollar lending), which surged to a record $93 billion. They’ve also actively used the swap market to lend these surplus dollars out, driving swap points higher.

  The PBOC still has many tools at its disposal to prevent a currency overshoot that would hurt Chinese exporters’ competitiveness. Goldman Sachs’ economists including Maggie Wei list a few:

  1. More verbal warnings against one-way bets
  2. Officially adding back the countercyclical factors to its yuan fixing, essentially setting the yuan weaker than otherwise
  3. Accumulate dollar reserves and/or ask state banks and experts to hold dollars
  4. Liberalizing FX outflows and tightening the channels for inflows.

  Among these tools, the most effective would be allowing more outbound investments to offset the inflows. The authorities have already done some of that, including the launch of the Southbound bond connect that allows local residents to buy overseas bonds in Hong Kong.

  More is probably needed.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 21:40

• "Potential Polar Vortex Event" Could Spark Bullish Reversal In NatGas 
  “Potential Polar Vortex Event” Could Spark Bullish Reversal In NatGas 

  Since mid-October, U.S. natural gas futures have been beaten down 40% as the narrative of colder weather and tight supplies quickly flipped and crushed bullish traders. As the Northern Hemisphere winter is less than two weeks away, new weather models suggest “significantly colder” temperatures could return for parts of the U.S. later this month into early 2022. 

  Meteorologists at private weather forecasting firm BAMWX expect a bullish setup for natgas futures. They say the narrative is flipping from warmer weather to the complete opposite as an Arctic polar vortex could plunge parts of the U.S. into a much colder weather pattern in January than today’s currently mild, above-trend temperatures.

  “Seeing an interesting pattern developing ahead leading up to Christmas and into early January ’22, as higher pressure looks to finally re-establish towards Alaska and the North Atlantic, pushing cold from the Arctic down into the US (after a record warm start to the month). If the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) can continue to progress through phase 7 into 8 (and possibly into 1) mid to late December, this can also increase the potential for a Polar Vortex displacement event, sending more consistent cold air deeper into the US…a big risk to watch for the energy markets ahead,” Kirk Hinz, the chief meteorologist at BAMWX, noted. 

  BAMWX outlines now could be the time to find a long entry into natgas futures, or as they put it, “long UNG,” the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP. ETF. Their reasoning behind the play is quite simple: 

  Long UNG Equity, Why? Polar Vortex Jan 2022 Northeast – Front-month NG1 40% drawdown in 6 weeks – Things can change on a dime but the setup is very good in our view – When you get a nice – healthy- capitulation puke ahead of this kind of possible shift typically leads to drama reversal – seasonal pattern – GFS (global forecasting system) pointing to an increased probability of Polar Vortex disruptions – decent chance forecasts suddenly get significantly colder to end Dec and open up 2022. Much of the Street got caught very long in Sept, anticipating a brutally cold winter, along with supply risk – then came above ave temps and then the “flush” exit, a now a polar vortex? -BAMWX 

  

  Natgas traders should carefully monitor temperature forecasts and heating degree day estimates for the U.S. to gauge future energy demand. Natgas futures have found support on an upward sloping diagonal trend line. Bloomberg reported earlier this week that traders were buying the dip on the prospects of colder weather later this month. 

  

  Looking across the Atlantic, colder weather and tight supplies sent Dutch natural gas for next month, the European benchmark, over the 100 euro mark and near all-time highs. 

  

  The divergence between U.S. and European energy prices is remarkable and may also suggest a reversal in U.S. natgas is nearing. 

  

  If BAMWX is right, a monster reversal in U.S. natgas futures could be ahead if forecasts pan out. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 21:20

• University Shielding Biden's Records Must Provide More Information Justifying Decision: Court
  University Shielding Biden’s Records Must Provide More Information Justifying Decision: Court

  Authored by Nick Ciolino via The Epoch Times,

  The Delaware Supreme Court has ruled partly in favor of conservative groups seeking access to documents related to President Joe Biden’s time in the Senate.

  

  Biden donated his Senatorial papers to the University of Delaware (UD) in 2012. This consisted of 1,850 boxes of archived records and 415 gigabytes of electronic records from Biden’s 36-year career in the Senate.

  The donation was made as a gift, with an agreement that places certain restrictions on the university’s ability to make the documents publicly available.

  Tara Reade, the woman who accused Biden of sexually assaulting her in 1993 at a Capitol Hill building while she was working as a staff assistant to the then-senator, has said that she believes a workplace discrimination and harassment complaint she filed against Biden at the time may be in the records housed at UD.

  Biden has emphatically denied Reade’s sexual assault allegations saying “it never happened.”

  In April 2020, Judicial Watch, Inc. and The Daily Caller News Foundation submitted requests under the Delaware Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) to access the UD documents. The university denied both requests, saying the papers are not subject to FOIA because they are not considered “public records.”

  The Delaware Supreme Court reversed a lower court decision on Dec. 6, deciding that the university must provide more information justifying its decision to keep Biden’s U.S. Senate records secret.

  “We conclude that the University failed to carry its burden of justifying its denial of the Appellants’ FOIA requests,” the court documents read.

  The case returns to the Delaware Superior Court, which initially affirmed that the documents were not subject to FOIA.

  “The Superior Court is granted leave to accept additional evidence or submissions as it deems necessary and appropriate,” the ruling reads.

  The Epoch Times reached out to the University of Delaware for comment but did not receive a response in time for the publication of this article.

  In March of 2020, MSNBC “Morning Joe” host Mika Brzezinski repeatedly questioned Biden about whether he would release the documents in response to Tara Reid’s accusations.

  “The material in the University of Delaware has no personnel files,” responded then-presidential candidate Biden. “But it does have a lot of confidential conversations that I had with the president about a particular issue, that I had with the heads of state of other places. That that would not be something that would be revealed while I was in public office or while I was seeking public office.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 21:00

• US Headed Toward "Cuban Missile Crisis" Situation Over Ukraine: Kremlin
  US Headed Toward “Cuban Missile Crisis” Situation Over Ukraine: Kremlin

  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov issued a dire warning on Thursday, saying amid the soaring Ukraine tensions that Russia and the US could end up in a situation resembling the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. He statements were meant to spur the two sides on toward entering deconfliction talks, to hammer together a “reasonable agreement” that aims to prevent further NATO expansion eastward, which is a “red line” of Putin.

  “You know, it could quite possibly reach that point,” he responded when asked by a reporter if things could escalate to Cuban Missile crisis levels with Washington and NATO over Donbass. “If comrades on the other side fail to understand us and keep doing what they are doing, we might wake up at some point to see something similar, if that’s what further developments will suggest.”

  

  “That would be a total failure of diplomacy, a failure of foreign policy,” Ryabkov added. “But there’s still time to try to reach an agreement based on reason.”

  The West is still accusing Russia with making preparations for an invasion of Eastern Ukraine, while Putin is seeking “reliable and long-term security guarantees” that there will be no more NATO members or military positioning close to its borders. Putin reportedly pressed Biden on gaining such an agreement during Tuesday’s two-hour virtual summit.

  Meanwhile, there could another brewing ‘Kerch Strait incident’ which triggers armed confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. Late in the day Thursday Russia’s Navy began issuing dire warnings for a Ukrainian navy vessel to turn back before entering Russia’s territorial waters. Here’s how Russian media reported the ‘close call’ incident: 

  A Ukrainian navy vessel, named the Donbass, has set course to pass through Russian territorial waters off the coast of Crimea and is ignoring warnings to turn around, border officials have reported…

  In a statement issued late on Thursday night, Russia’s FSB announced that “on December 9 at 9.12am, the command ship ‘Donbass’ of the Ukrainian Navy left the port of Mariupol and began heading for the Kerch Strait.”

  According to officials, the vessel did not have permission to pass through the Russian-controlled Kerch-Yenikalsky canal that divides the Black Sea from the Sea of Azov.

  However, at the last moment as Russia’s navy was preparing for a showdown and some kind of intervention, the Ukrainian vessel reversed course. 

  

  The incident shows how with tensions on edge, there’s some “probing” going on – perhaps in an attempt to test Russia’s willingness to respond. In the Black Sea and Crimean region, the world is perhaps a mere single provocation away from witnessing the start of a “shots fired” scenario, potentially drawing in Ukraine’s Western allies, including the United States. 

  Following all of this, it’s being reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled to the White House that he’s ready to meet directly with Putin to talk de-escalation. This after Zelensky spoke with Biden on Thursday.

  The Cuban Missile Crisis comparisons are perhaps apt, but the further irony is that Donbass is much closer to Russia’s border and territory than Cuba is to the US coast…

  

  Above: US news clipping from during the height of the historic Cuban Missile Crisis

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 20:40

• New York City Dems Pass Bill Allowing Non-Citizens To Vote
  New York City Dems Pass Bill Allowing Non-Citizens To Vote

  Having tried (and failed and doubled-down) in two Vermont cities earlier this year, and following the bitch-slap rejection of lefter-than-left progressive policies in Virginia (and less so, but still notably, in Jersey), Democrats have succeeded in passing a bill allowing non-citizens to vote in America’s largest city.

  The Wall Street Journal reports that New York City’s Democrat-led city-council on Thursday voted 33-14 for the measure, which if enacted would take effect for council races in 2023.

  

  The bill that will let more than 800,000 residents who aren’t U.S. citizens vote in municipal elections.

  The measure would let lawful permanent residents or those authorized to work in the U.S. to vote in city elections if they have lived in the five boroughs for 30 days or more and meet the other requirements for voting. It wouldn’t grant voting rights to immigrants who entered the country illegally.

  About 10% of the city’s 8.4 million inhabitants have status as lawful permanent residents, mostly with green cards, according to an April report by the Mayor’s Office of Immigrant Affairs. 

  Despite saying he wouldn’t veto the bill (before he leaves office in a month), even New York City’s Democrat Mayor Bill de Blasio has conceded that this is blatantly unconstitutional under New York law.

  “In the end, I want to make sure that citizenship, which people work so hard to achieve, is valued and is given its full weight,” the mayor said in late November during an interview on NY1.

  On the flip side, voters in Alabama, Florida, Colorado and North Dakota have voted to amend their state constitutions to mandate ballots be cast only by U.S. citizens.

  “Democrats are trying to dismantle the integrity of our elections,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in October.

  “In addition to attacking widely supported safeguards like voter ID, Democrats also want foreign citizens to vote in American elections. Republicans are fighting back on this far-left assault against election integrity. Unlike radical Democrats, we believe that our elections should be decided solely by American citizens.”

  New York City Councilman Joseph Borelli, a Republican from Staten Island, said he would vote against the measure.

  “I think there’s a number of people looking at lawsuits,” Mr. Borelli said.

  And so, just remind us again why it’s Republicans that are “threatening the very foundations of democracy”?

  As Thomas Hicks Jr wrote recently:

  “The case of New York City crystalizes just how far Democrats are willing to go to undermine election integrity. It goes without saying that voting is an immense privilege and responsibility. It’s also a right that should be reserved for U.S. citizens. Democrats want to water the meaning of citizenship down just so they consolidate power. The RNC isn’t going to let them. Our country will be better off for it.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 20:20

• Tropical Warzone: Gunmen On Jet Skis Open Fire At Cancun Beach Resort 
  Tropical Warzone: Gunmen On Jet Skis Open Fire At Cancun Beach Resort 

  The Northern Hemisphere winter is just 12 days away, and some Americans have already packed their bags and headed to the sandy beaches of Cancun to escape cold weather. Vacationers this year have to be on guard amid a spate of shootings that have turned the area into a tropical warzone. 

  The latest incident occurred Tuesday outside the four-star Oasis Palm resort in Cancun. According to NBC News, a group of gunmen pulled up on jet skis and began shooting in the hotel zone. 

  

  Here are the jetskis used in the shooting. 

  

  Andy Guyrich and Kerry Arms, who were visiting from Minnesota, described the incident as terror on the beach:

  “We just had to hit the deck.

  “There was a delayed reaction for about maybe five seconds, then everybody started scrambling and screaming and crying, and running,” Arms said.

  The shooting at the Oasis Palm is just the latest in a string of violent incidents we have documented this year from Cancun to about 2 hours south in Tulum. 

  Last month, cartel gunfire erupted at a high-end resort at Hyatt Ziva Riviera. A shootout between two rival cartels left two drug dealers dead. 

  Multiple cartels are battling over who controls the drug trade to tourists. In October, in Tulum, gunfire among two rival cartels left two female foreign tourists dead and three injured. 

  Mexico was left with no other choice than to deploy 1,500 National Guard members to quell the violence in resort areas.

  Readers may recall, as early April, we noted “”Crisis In Paradise” – Mexican Tourist Mecca Descends Into Chaos As Cartels Wage War During Spring Break,” documenting the rapid deterioration in the resort areas as cartels waged war on one another with tourists in the crossfire. 

  A little late but a good start, the US Department of State issued a travel warning to Americans vacationing in Cancun to “exercise extreme caution” amid the surge in violence. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 20:00

• Maine Governor Activates National Guard To Help At Hospitals After Mandate Forced Out Hundreds
  Maine Governor Activates National Guard To Help At Hospitals After Mandate Forced Out Hundreds

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  Maine Gov. Janet Mills on Wednesday activated the state’s National Guard to go to hospitals and help workers after her COVID-19 vaccine mandate caused hundreds of nurses and other healthcare employees to leave their jobs or get fired.

  

  Mills, a Democrat, said the move was to “help alleviate short-term capacity constraints at hospitals and maintain access to inpatient health care services for Maine people amid a sustained surge of COVID-19.”

  One of the most-vaccinated states in the country, Maine has seen COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations increase in recent weeks.

  Out of 379 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Maine as of Dec. 8, 117 were in critical care and 60 were on ventilators.

  Most are not vaccinated, according to state data.

  At the same time, the bulk of inpatient beds were not being used for COVID-19 patients, according to data reported to the Department of Health and Human Services by state facilities.

  Dr. Andrew Mueller, CEO of MaineHealth, said hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the healthcare system are the highest ever.

  Mueller told reporters in a virtual briefing that a shortage of workers is affecting facilities in addition to the rising number of COVID-19 cases and an “incredible demand for other, non-COVID services.”

  Hundreds of workers quit or were fired due to Mills’ COVID-19 vaccine mandate, which the Supreme Court declined to block, Maine hospital systems have told news outlets.

  In addition to the workers lost, many workers either have COVID-19 or are being investigated for possible COVID-19, forcing them to miss work, healthcare executives said. They also described a national shortage of qualified workers.

  “The challenge we’ve got is finding qualified healthcare workers, because they don’t exist. Our nation’s lost over half a million health care workers who resigned, retired, left the field in the last several months. And so there’s a huge workforce crisis across our country,” Mueller said.

  

  Maine Gov. Janet Mills, left, is seen during a summit in New York City in 2019. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images)

  The National Guard personnel will provide support to facilities and units that get patients who are discharged from hospitals due to being overwhelmed. They’ll also help administer monoclonal antibodies, one of the best-known COVID-19 treatments, in a bid to keep COVID-19 patients who aren’t in hospitals out of hospitals.

  “I’m deploying these National Guard members across the state of Maine to expand our hospitals’ capacity to treat people with COVID-19 and other serious conditions,” Mills told a press conference.

  The deployment will start next week and run through the end of January.

  As many as 75 members will be sent to assist healthcare sites.

  Mills’ administration also asked the federal government to send COVID-19 surge response teams to two Maine hospitals. The teams would help workers at Maine Medical Center in Portland and Central Maine Medical Center in Lewiston.

  Maine Medical Center closed six operating rooms this week to make more space for intensive care units.

  Central Maine Medical Center has also seen an increase in patients, including COVID-19 patients.

  “Any additional resources that can be provided, whether from the state or federal level, during this time when resources are stretched thin for Maine hospitals are greatly appreciated,” Steve Littleson, the president and CEO of Central Maine Healthcare, the parent company of the center, said in a statement.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 19:40

• Scientists May Have Discovered Why COVID Hits Fat People Harder
  Scientists May Have Discovered Why COVID Hits Fat People Harder

  Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the most common denominators in deaths and severe Covid is obesity.

  

  Pre-vaccine, 73% of those who died of (or with) Covid-19 were either overweight or obese – which tracks with the percentage of overweight and obese Americans.

  

  In addition to having generally poor circulatory health, an obese person is more likely to have other conditions that are risk factors for severe Covid, including low-level inflammation, diabetes and lung disease.

  A September 2020 meta-analysis suggested a linear relationship between BMI and Covid-19 severity and mortality.

  

  Meanwhile, and this is unrelated to the point of this article – 75% of Covid deaths to date (unvaxxed and vaxxed) in the United States are retirement age or older, with another 18% between the ages of 50 and 64-years-old. So the vast majority of US Covid deaths are in older Americans, 73% or so of whom are overweight or obese.

  

  Now, scientists may have a clue as to why Covid affects fat people more severely – it infects both fat cells and certain immune cells within body fat, prompting the body to respond aggressively, according to the New York Times, citing a study published in October.

  “The bottom line is, ‘Oh my god, indeed, the virus can infect fat cells directly,'” said Dr. Philipp Scherer, a scientist who studies fat cells at UT Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas, who was not involved in the research.

  “Whatever happens in fat doesn’t stay in fat,” he continued. “It affects neighboring tissues as well.”

  The research has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal, but it was posted online in October. If the findings hold up, they may shed light not just on why patients with excess pounds are vulnerable to the virus, but also on why certain younger adults with no other risks become so ill.

  The study’s senior authors, Dr. Tracey McLaughlin and Dr. Catherine Blish of the Stanford University School of Medicine, suggested the evidence could point to new Covid treatments that target body fat.

  …

  The finding is particularly relevant to the United States, which has one of the highest rates of obesity in the world. Most American adults are overweight, and 42 percent have obesity. Black, Hispanic, Native American and Alaska Native people in the U.S. have higher obesity rates than white adults and Asian Americans; they have also been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, with death rates roughly double those of white Americans. -NY Times

  “Maybe that’s the Achilles’ heel that the virus utilizes to evade our protective immune responses — by hiding in this place,” said Dr. Vishwa Deep Dixit, a professor of comparative medicine and immunology at Yale School of Medicine.

  According to Stanford’s Dr. Blish, “This could well be contributing to severe disease … We’re seeing the same inflammatory cytokines that I see in the blood of the really sick patients being produced in response to infection of those tissues.”

  Mysteries of fat…

  As the Times notes, body fat is more than just an inert form of energy storage. On the contrary, fat is biologically active, and produces both hormones and immune-system proteins that affect nearby cells, causing a persistent low-grade inflammation regardless of any actual infection.

  Inflammation is the body’s response to an invader, and sometimes it can be so vigorous that it is more harmful than the infection that triggered it. “The more fat mass, and in particular visceral fat mass, the worse your inflammatory response,” Dr. McLaughlin said, referring to the abdominal fat that surrounds internal organs.

  Fat tissue is composed mostly of fat cells, or adipocytes. It also contains pre-adipocytes, which mature into fat cells, and a variety of immune cells, including a type called adipose tissue macrophages. -NY Times

  As part of the study, Dr. McLaughlin, Blish and other colleagues experimented on fat obtained from bariatric surgery to see if the tissue would become infected with Covid. They found that yes, they could – but certain immune cells known as macrophages were also susceptible, and produced a ‘robust’ inflammatory response. The team also analyzed fat cells from Europeans who had died of Covid, and found the disease contained within fat near various organs.

  According to Johns Hopkins professor of cardiology, Dr. David Kass, a man whose ideal weight is 170 lbs, yet who weighs 250 lbs, is carrying a substantial amount of fat in which the virus can ‘hang out’ – where it can then replicate and trigger a ‘destructive immune system response.’

  “If you really are very obese, fat is the biggest single organ in your body,” said Kass, who added that Covid “can infect that tissue and actually reside there.”

  “Whether it hurts it, kills it or at best, it’s a place to amplify itself — it doesn’t matter. It becomes kind of a reservoir.”

  And as journalist Alex Berenson wrote in July…

  In April, British researchers published a definitive paper on the subject in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, a peer-reviewed journal. The researchers examined the medical records of almost 7 million people in England to look at the link between obesity and severe outcomes from Covid, including hospitalization and death.

  The topline findings show only a moderate link between extra weight and Covid risk. But when the researchers looked more closely, they found that’s because in older people, being overweight does NOT drive excess risk.

  So the researchers divided the patients into four age ranges: 20-39, 40-59, 60-79, and over 80. They found that in the two younger groups – including adults up to age 60 – being obese was associated with nearly ALL the risk that Covid would lead to intensive care or death. The findings held even after they adjusted for many different potential confounding factors, like smoking, non-weight-related illnesses, and wealth.

  The excess risk was extremely high even for people who weren’t morbidly obese – defined as a body-mass index of 40 or more. A person between 40 and 60 with a BMI of 35 – someone who is 230 pounds and 5’8” – had about five times the risk of dying of Covid of a person of normal weight. For younger adults, the excess risk was even higher, and for morbidly obese people even higher still.

  In contrast, people of normal weight under 40 are at essentially no risk of death from Covid. The researchers found their rate to be under 1 in 10,000 per year. Even in the 40 to 59 age range, normal-weight adults had an annual risk well under 1 in 1,000.

  *  *  *

  Lose the weight, folks. And for those who need to shed pounds fast, a ketogenic diet may actually act as a preventative measure.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 19:20

• Biden Plan To Clear California Port Congestion Stalls
  Biden Plan To Clear California Port Congestion Stalls

  By Greg Miller of Freight Waves,

  “We’re starting to see some traction,” Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka proclaimed on Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. “Those aging containers are down by 50% over the last six weeks.”

  

  Seroka was referring to long-dwelling containers targeted by a dramatic, highly controversial fee plan backed by the Biden administration. Or rather, a plan that threatens to levy a fee that no one, including the ports, ever wants to be levied. The fee on long-dwelling containers was set to begin on Nov. 1, then delayed until Nov. 15, then to Nov. 22, Nov. 29, Dec. 6 and Dec. 13. The string of delays has led to an increasing belief that the fee will never happen.

  Will a plan to threaten a fee continue to work after so many reprieves, particularly as the “empty Christmas shelves” political risk dissipates?

  It’s already working a lot less than it used to. American Shipper analyzed all of the available statistics and found that progress in clearing long-dwelling containers has slowed significantly over recent weeks.

  Shipping consultant Jon Monroe wrote in his weekly newsletter:

  “My money says the new port surcharge may never be implemented — as long as we continue to improve the port congestion. And is this happening? NO. But don’t tell anybody. This is best kept a dirty little secret left uncovered.”

  Meanwhile, percentage changes such as the one cited by Seroka are inherently prone to spinning. The White House reports declines measured in twenty-foot equivalent units, whereas the ports publicly report declines in containers, regardless of size. The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles report their container numbers in two different ways. And any percentage change is heavily skewed by which date range you pick.

  Port of Long Beach

  The fee plan, if ever implemented, would charge ocean carriers $100 per import container for boxes moving by truck that dwell for nine or more days, and for boxes dwelling six or more days that move by rail. The charge would escalate by $100 a day until a container leaves the port. Carriers have said they will pass the charge along to shippers.

  The Port of Long Beach provides statistics on the number of containers that meet these two specific “late” definitions. But the Port of Los Angeles does not.

  For Long Beach, the vast majority of reported late containers are in the nine-days-plus category for trucking, not the six-days-plus category for rail. The total on Monday, 20,772 containers, was actually 20% higher than the total three weeks prior, on Nov. 13, of 17,271 containers. Excess-dwell containers represented 35% of total import containers on the port on Monday, up from 29% on Nov. 13.

  

  Looking all the way back to Nov. 2, five weeks ago, the total number of excess dwell containers in Long Beach was down 22% as of Wednesday (the decrease is even higher, at 32%, when comparing to Oct. 28). Yet the numbers in Long Beach have plateaued more recently. Furthermore, the number of total import containers at Long Beach terminals has not decreased — it has actually slightly increased. There were 57,042 import containers at Long Beach terminals on Nov. 1 and 57,970 on Tuesday.

  Port of Los Angeles

  The Port of Los Angeles posts numbers on containers by days dwelling: up to four, five to eight, nine to 12, and 13-plus. Stats are available from Nov. 1. (The Port of Long Beach has these figures as well, but only from Nov. 9.) The number of containers in Los Angeles dwelling nine days or more is a fair approximation of the number that would be charged excess-dwell fees if those fees were ever charged, but it excludes late rail containers in the six-to-eight-day category.

  On Oct. 24, the day before the fee announcement was made, there were 37,410 containers in Los Angeles dwelling nine days or longer. The decline over the past six weeks matches the figure cited by Seroka on Bloomberg.

  Unlike in Long Beach, Los Angeles has seen a sharp drop in total import containers on the port. On Nov. 1, there were 87,485. On Wednesday, there were 57,311.

  Despite the drop in total import containers at Los Angeles terminals, the percentage of containers dwelling nine days or more versus the total was 34% on Wednesday, the same percentage as Nov. 21.

  

  As far as the long-dwelling containers targeted by the fee-threat plan, progress stalled in Los Angeles around Nov. 23. The numbers over the past two weeks have plateaued.

  White House reports

  The White House puts out twice-monthly releases on supply chain issues, including stats on containers dwelling nine days or more at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The White House reports the numbers in TEUs, not containers (most of the containers in LA/LB are 40-footers).

  On Nov. 29, the White House reported that the number of long-dwelling containers in the two ports was 75,000 TEUs, a week-on-week drop of 7% from 81,000 TEUs on Nov. 22. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach reported a combined 45,458 containers dwelling nine days or more on Nov. 22, and 44,919 on Nov. 29, representing a much smaller week-on-week drop of 1%.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 19:00

• Fauci: Definition Of 'Fully Vaccinated' Will Be Changed
  Fauci: Definition Of ‘Fully Vaccinated’ Will Be Changed

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  The definition of fully vaccinated in the United States will be changed, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday.

  “It’s going to be a matter of when, not if,” Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during an appearance on CNN.

  The term fully vaccinated presently refers to a person who receives two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines or the single-shot Johnson & Johnson jab.

  Fauci previously said the definition could be changed. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)—which set the definition—has left open the possibility of changing it.

  

  The definition is used by authorities imposing vaccine mandates across the country, including the federal mandates against healthcare workers and government contractors.

  Several of those mandates have been blocked in courts for now due to worries they’re illegal.

  Fauci said the timing of the change may be linked to the ongoing cases.

  “It has implications for that, and that’s the reason why it matters,” he said.

  The CDC did not respond to a request for comment.

  Effectiveness of all three of the vaccines authorized for use in the United States drops the longer time goes on from a person getting one, according to real-world data and a slew of studies.

  There’s been “a slow but steady waning of immunity over time,” Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, said last month.

  Walensky and other health authorities, citing the waning efficacy, recently cleared boosters for all adults 18 and older. Late last month, they recommended that virtually everybody in that population get an additional jab.

  The drop in protection is even more pronounced against the newly identified Omicron variant, according to four studies released this week.

  Vaccine makers, including Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech, are racing to develop reformulated shots that will target the variant specifically.

  BioNTech CEO Uğur Şahin told reporters Wednesday that the data makes it “very clear that our vaccine for the Omicron variant should be a three-dose vaccine.”

  Some U.S. institutions have already started requiring boosters for people to meet vaccination rules, including multiple college campuses.

  Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a Pfizer board member and former head of the Food and Drug Administration, said last month he thinks the CDC will update the definition of fully vaccinated to include boosters, but not until next year.

  “I think at some point they’re going to, but not this year. I think eventually this will be considered the three dose vaccine, but I would be hard pressed to believe CDC is going to make that recommendation any time soon,” he said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 18:45

• Jussie Smollett Guilty Of Faking Race-Baiting, Homophobic Attack
  Jussie Smollett Guilty Of Faking Race-Baiting, Homophobic Attack

  Three years after the “Empire” actor claimed that two Trump-voting, MAGA-hat-wearing white folk, attacked him, tied a noose around his neck, and used racist and homophobic slurs, in downtown Chicago, Jussie Smollett has been found guilty by a jury of his peers of lying to police about the robbery and hate crime he had staged against himself.

  

  Jurors heard six days of testimony from 13 witnesses and deliberated for less than 10 hours.

  “He’s dumb enough to go into Obama’s city and pretend there’s Trump supporters running around with MAGA hats? Give me a break,” defense attorney Nenye Uche told jurors in his closing arguments. 

  “There was no hoax,” Smollett told jurors. 

  “What happened to me, happened.” 

  They obviously didn’t believe him.

  As a reminder, NYPost reports that the actor was originally charged with staging a hate crime in February 2019 but in a stunning reversal, Chicago prosecutors dropped all charges against him after he agreed to forfeit a $10,000 bond and showed proof that he’d completed two days of community service.

  In the backdrop of Smollett’s failed performance as a hate crime victim, scandal soon engulfed Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, who was widely criticized for the move and was later found to have made a series of unethical blunders in her handling of the case. 

  We look forward to hearing from VP Kamala Harris who was among the first to leverage the race-baiting angle of the hoax hate-crime,  condemning what she called “an attempted modern day lynching.”

  .@JussieSmollett is one of the kindest, most gentle human beings I know. I’m praying for his quick recovery.

  This was an attempted modern day lynching. No one should have to fear for their life because of their sexuality or color of their skin. We must confront this hate.

  — Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) January 29, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  We also wonder if President Biden is still “with Jussie”…

  What happened today to @JussieSmollett must never be tolerated in this country. We must stand up and demand that we no longer give this hate safe harbor; that homophobia and racism have no place on our streets or in our hearts. We are with you, Jussie. https://t.co/o8ilPu68CM

  — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) January 30, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  So what’s left now?

  The actor faces up to three years in jail for the crimes, but experts have said he would likely be placed on probation and ordered to perform community service.

  pic.twitter.com/d9FQooWGWt

  — William Mazerat (@WhoDatWill572) December 9, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Cue the cries that ‘justice was not done’…and how the ‘systemic racism’ is really to blame…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 12/09/2021 – 18:34

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Escobar: What Putin Really Told Biden
  Escobar: What Putin Really Told Biden

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

  Russian and US leaders dropped their respective rhetorical gauntlets but nobody really expects Russia to invade Ukraine…

  

  So Russian President Vladimir Putin, all by himself, and US President Joe Biden, surrounded by aides, finally had their secret video link conference for two hours and two minutes – with translators placed in different rooms.

  That was their first serious exchange since they met in person in Geneva last June – the first Russia-US summit since 2018.

  For global public opinion, led to believe a “war” in Ukraine was all but imminent, what’s left is essentially a torrent of spin.

  So let’s start with a simple exercise focusing on the key issue of the video link – Ukraine -, contrasting the White House and Kremlin versions of what happened.

  • The White House: Biden made it “clear” to Putin that the US and allies will respond with “decisive economic and other measures” to the military escalation in Ukraine. At the same time, Biden called on Putin to de-escalate around Ukraine and “return to diplomacy”.

  • Kremlin: Putin offered Biden to nullify all restrictions on the functioning of diplomatic missions. He remarked that cooperation between Russia and the US is still in an “unsatisfactory” state. He urged the US not to shift “responsibility on the shoulders of Russia” for the escalation of the situation around Ukraine.

  • The White House: the US will expand military aid to Ukraine if Russia takes steps against it.

  • Kremlin: Putin told Biden that Russia is interested in obtaining legally fixed guarantees excluding NATO’s eastward expansion and the deployment of offensive strike systems in Russia’s neighboring countries.

  • The White House: Biden did not give Putin any commitments that Ukraine will remain outside NATO.

  Minsk or bust

  Now for what really matters: the red line.

  What Putin diplomatically told Team Biden, sitting at their table, is that Russia’s red line – no Ukraine on NATO – is unmovable. The same applies to Ukraine turned into a hub of the Pentagon’s Empire of Bases, and hosting NATO weaponry.

  Washington may deny it ad infinitum, but Ukraine is part of Russia’s sphere of influence. If nothing is done to force Kiev to abide by the Minsk Agreement, Russia will “neutralize” the threat in its own terms.

  The root cause of all this drama, absent from any NATOstan narrative, is straightforward: Kiev simply refuses to respect the February 2015 Minsk Agreement.

  According to the deal, Kiev should grant autonomy to Donbass via a constitutional amendment, referred to as “special status”; issue a general amnesty; and start a dialogue with the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

  Over the years, Kiev fulfilled less than zero of these commitments – while the NATOstan media machine kept spinning that Russia was violating Minsk. Russia is not even mentioned (italics mine) in the agreement.

  Moscow always respected the Minsk Agreement – which establishes Donbass as an integral, autonomous part of Ukraine. Russia has made it very clear, over and over again, it has no interest whatsoever in promoting regime change in Kiev.

  Before the video link, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov remarked, “Putin will listen to Biden’s proposals on Ukraine ‘with great interest.’” Even the White House states Team Biden did not propose for Kiev to obey the Minsk Agreement. So regardless of what Team Biden may have said, Putin, pragmatically, will adopt a “wait and see” approach, and then act accordingly.

  In the run up to the video link, maximum hype revolved around Washington seeking to stop Nord Stream 2 if Russia “invades” Ukraine.

  What never transpires out of the “invasion” narrative, repeated ad nauseam across NATOstan, is that hawks overseeing an immensely polarized US, corroded from the inside, desperately need a war in what military analyst Andrei Martyanov calls “country 404”, a black hole contiguous to Europe.

  The crux of the matter is that imperial European vassals must not have access to Russian energy: only American LNG.

  And that’s what led the most extreme Russophobes in Washington to start threatening sanctions on Putin’s inner circle, Russian energy producers, and even disconnecting Russia from SWIFT. All that was supposed to prevent Russia from “invading” Country 404.

  Secretary of State Tony Blinken – present at the video link – said a few days ago in Riga that “if Russia invades Ukraine”, NATO will respond “with a range of high impact economic measures.” As for NATO, it’s far from aggressive: just a “defensive” organization.

  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in early December, at the OCSE Ministerial Council meeting in Stockholm, was already warning that “strategic stability” in Europe was “rapidly eroding”.

  Lavrov said, “NATO refuses to consider our proposals on de-escalation of tensions and prevention of dangerous incidents…On the contrary, the alliance’s military infrastructure is moving closer to Russia’s borders… The nightmarish scenario of military confrontation is returning.”

  So no wonder the heart of the matter, for Moscow, is NATO encroachment. The “invasion” narrative is crass fake news sold as fact. Even the CIA’s William Burns admitted that US intel had no intel to “conclude” that Russia will dutifully answer the War Inc. prayers and finally “invade” Ukraine.

  Still that did not prevent a German sensationalist rag from presenting the full contours of the Russian blitzkrieg, when the actual story is the US and NATO attempting to push “country 404” to commit suicide by attacking the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

  That legally binding guarantee

  It’s idle to expect the video link to produce practical results. As NATOstan remains mired in concentric crises, the current level of high tension between NATO and Russia is a gift from heaven in terms of maintaining the convenient narrative of an external Slavic evil. It’s also an extra bonus for the military-industrial-intelligence-media-think tank complex.

  The tension will continue to simmer without becoming incandescent only if NATO does not expand in any shape or form inside Ukraine. Diplomats in Brussels routinely comment that Kiev will never be accepted as a NATO member. But if things can get worse, they will: Kiev will become one of those NATO special partners, a desperately poor, hungry for territory, rogue actor.

  Putin demanding from the US – which runs NATO – a written, legally binding guarantee that the alliance will not advance further eastward towards Russian borders is the game-changer here.

  Team Biden cannot possibly deliver: they would be eaten alive by the War Inc. establishment. Putin studied his history and knows that Daddy Bush’s “promise” to Gorbachev on NATO expansion was just a lie. He knows those who run NATO will never commit themselves in writing.

  So that allows Putin a full range of options to defend Russian national security. “Invasion” is a joke; Ukraine, rotting from the inside, consumed by fear, loathing, and poverty, will remain in limbo, while Donetsk and Lugansk will be progressively interconnected with the Russian Federation.

  There will be no NATO war on Russia – as Martyanov himself has extensively demonstrated NATO wouldn’t last five minutes against Russian hypersonic weapons. And Moscow will be focused on what really matters, geoeconomically and geopolitically: solidifying the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and the Greater Eurasia Partnership.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 23:40

• Air Force Secretary Reveals Two New Secret Combat Drones 
  Air Force Secretary Reveals Two New Secret Combat Drones 

  US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall revealed at the Reagan National Defense Forum that two new secret combat drone programs are preparing to be funded.

  “I’ve got two that I’m going to have in the ’23 budget in some form,” Kendall told Politico on Saturday at the conference. 

  “They’re both unmanned air combat vehicles, unmanned platforms that are designed to work in conjunction with fighter aircraft like [the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter] or F-22 or the F-35. On the other hand they work in conjunction with bombers like the B-21,” he said. 

  Kendall said the two combat drones are designed to operate alongside stealth fighter jets and bombers. He said the existence of the drones would be disclosed in the upcoming military budget request that heads to Congress early next year. 

  “These will be acknowledged classified programs,” he explained, “but I am going to try to get them started in ’23.”

  There is speculation the two new drones could be the USAF’s attempt to expand its Loyal Wingman program. So far, Boeing has developed the Loyal Wingman drone in partnership with the Defence Department and Royal Australian Air Force. The drone uses artificial intelligence to attack enemy targets and flies alongside high-value assets such as the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, McDonnell Douglas F/A-18 Hornet, Boeing P-8 Poseidon, and Boeing E-7 Wedgetail.

  

  Kendall’s acknowledgment of the new drones suggests that the USAF is rapidly investing in autonomous weapon systems, giving fighter pilots an edge over China and Russia. 

  “Investing in unique and highly capable unmanned aerial vehicles is something people not only expect, but is indicative of the fact that the Air Force is exploiting the technologies out there to give it a decisive technology edge,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, the former deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance who now runs the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, an industry-backed think tank.

  Kendall said preparation work for the two new programs is already underway.

  “I will be doing things to try and get them ready to go,” he said. “We will be able to use study money and some science and technology money to set the stage for that.”

  In a separate program, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Pentagon’s research arm, developed an AI-controlled virtual fighter pilot that can beat human pilots in mock dogfights.  

  The rise of Skynet continues…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 23:20

• Ron Paul: Biden's "Democracy Summit" Is A Joke
  Ron Paul: Biden’s “Democracy Summit” Is A Joke

  Authored by Ron Paul,

  On December 9-10 President Biden will preside over an online “Summit for Democracy,” which claims it will “bring together leaders from government, civil society, and the private sector to set forth an affirmative agenda for democratic renewal and to tackle the greatest threats faced by democracies today through collective action.”

  

  What a joke. This is not about promoting democracy. It’s really about undermining democracy worldwide with US interventionist foreign policy.

  Yes, the conference is anti-democracy, not pro-democracy.

  The countries whose elected leaders do the bidding of the United States – disregarding the wishes of those who elected them – are to be favored with an invitation to this “virtual” event. The countries that pursue domestic and foreign policy that is independent from the demands of the US State Department and CIA are not allowed into Washington’s sandbox to play.

  Much of the world has seen through the pettiness of such an infantile approach. It is like the fairy tale of the emperor with no clothes. None of the sycophantic foreign leaders graced with an invitation to the banquet dare point out that the US is in the business of undermining democracy overseas, not promoting it.

  Color revolutions, where elected governments are overthrown with US backing, is about the only thing the US exports these days. Ask the Ukrainians how their US-backed overthrow in 2014 has worked out for them. Ask any victim of US anti-democratic “color revolutions” about the US commitment to democracy.

  For Washington, democracy means “you elect who we tell you to elect.”

  European Union member country Hungary is the only EU country not invited to participate in the “Summit for Democracy” even though it has undeniably held fully democratic elections since the end of communism 30 years ago. There is no question that Hungary is a democratic country, but it is not invited to Biden’s “Summit for Democracy.”

  Why? Because the Biden Administration does not like Hungary’s democracy. It does not like the fact that the Hungarian people have voted for a conservative government that occasionally pursues foreign and domestic policies at odds with the dictates of Foggy Bottom and Langley.

  The Biden Administration does not like that Hungary resisted the mass invasion of refugees from countries and cultures absolutely alien to Hungary’s history. Biden does not like the fact that Hungarians have voted time and time again for a conservative government that openly professes Christian values. But what they hate most is that when Washington says “jump,” Budapest doesn’t always ask “how high?”.

  It’s a petty game that has already backfired like all of Washington’s idiotic interventionist initiatives. For example, in the Hungarian situation, Washington’s childish snub of Hungary has meant that the rest of the European Union cannot participate in the summit as the EU.

  Washington’s intervention overseas is always an own-goal. Sanctioning Russia over phony Russiagate has resulted in more Russia-China cooperation. The US tells Iran it must not sell oil anywhere, and similarly-demonized China cuts a good deal for Iranian oil.

  It won’t shock anyone that Russia and Iran – which both hold elections no less democratic than those in Ukraine, where opposition parties are outlawed and their leaders jailed – are not invited to Biden’s little party. But no doubt their absence will be more than made up by North Macedonia, Suriname, and Micronesia. Democracy summit? More like propaganda summit! What a joke!

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 23:00

• Earthquake Swarm Hits Off Oregon Coast, Causing Fears Of 'The Next Big One' 
  Earthquake Swarm Hits Off Oregon Coast, Causing Fears Of ‘The Next Big One’ 

  The Blanco Transform Fault Zone (BTFZ) off Oregon’s coast, one of North America’s most active fault lines, generated 50 earthquakes in the last 24 hours. 

  The quake swarm hit 200-250 miles west of Newport, Oregon, and ranged between magnitude 3.5 to 5.8. The area’s seismic activity has generated a lot of buzz on social media, of worried people believing the next big one could be nearing. 

  There has been a ‘swarm’ of earthquakes off the Oregon coast this evening; the strongest reaching 5.8!

  Such swarms are common. Thankfully, they mostly occur far from shore along strike-slip faults.

  This means there is NO tsunami risk because little water is displaced! pic.twitter.com/8reA3m3rL0

  — NWS Eureka (@NWSEureka) December 8, 2021

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  “If you had asked me yesterday where on Earth would be most likely to produce a bunch of magnitude 5.0+ quakes in a single day, this would have been high on my list,” Harold Tobin, Director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network at the University of Washington, told CNN.

  BTFZ is a strike-slip boundary which means tectonic plates slide along one another. The most dangerous are the subduction zones, where one plate dives underneath another. 

   “Blanco Fracture zone quakes are strike-slip (lateral motions of the crustal blocks on either side, rather than up-down displacement), so it is very unlikely for them to pose a tsunami threat, even if a bigger quake happened, like a magnitude 7.0 for example,” Tobin said. 

  Social media users were concerned that the quake swarm was from the Cascadia Subduction Zone closer to shore. 

  Whew! Coast of Oregon has been on the move a LOT the last 24 hours. 45 quakes M3 to M 5.8. That’s not counting the additional quakes listed for coast of CA and WA. Where the Pacific plate and Juan de Fuca plate are pulling apart at. Keeping an eye on cascadia subduction zone. pic.twitter.com/zgCMUT6R3o

  — WhooIamNot (@WhooIAmNot) December 8, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  There’s a bit of a vigorous earthquake swarm along the Blanco Transform Fault. This is NOT involving the Cascadia Subduction Zone but this tectonic movement will ultimately contribute to further loading of that plate boundary as stress transfers eastward. #BlancoTransformFault. pic.twitter.com/iKsKJCqPmT

  — CaliforniaDisasters (@CalDisasters) December 8, 2021

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  Fortunately this swarm is not part of the Cascadia subduction zone. https://t.co/qIAiuWRjzy

  — J.F. Riordan (@AudacityofGoats) December 8, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Swarm of 5+ magnitude earthquakes off the coast of Oregon.

  Keep an eye on the Cascadia subduction zone.

  — Rabon Vincent Jr. (@jr_rabon) December 8, 2021

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  Meanwhile, the Oregon Office of Emergency has warned if a powerful 9.0+ magnitude earthquake originates from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, it could unleash a “tsunami of up to 100 feet in height that will impact the coastal area.” 

  The state agency adds, “Currently, scientists are predicting that there is about a 37 percent chance that a megathrust earthquake of 7.1+ magnitude in this fault zone will occur in the next 50 years.”

  The Cascadia Subduction Zone has had seven major earthquakes. The last one was in the 1700s. 

  Professor of Marine Geology Dr. Chris Goldfinger at Oregon State University has focused research on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. He warned at a 2016 TED Conference, an earthquake for the area is “overdue.” 

  So when Pacific Northwest residents hear about quake swarms off the coast, they get concerned because a monster tsunami could be headed their way. They also have to worry about supervolcano fears in Yellowstone National Park. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 22:40

• Police Detective Warns People Not To Visit Los Angeles Due To Rising Crime
  Police Detective Warns People Not To Visit Los Angeles Due To Rising Crime

  Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

  A Los Angeles detective has warned against people visiting the city due to rising crime rates while adding that police are unable to guarantee their safety.

  “We’re telling people don’t visit because we don’t think we can keep you safe right now. And that’s just sad to say,” Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) detective Jamie McBride told Fox News on Tuesday.

  McBride blamed Governor Gavin Newsom, L.A. County DA George Gascon, and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) for propagating the Proposition 47 bill that has led to such a situation.

  “How did we get here? The ACLU advocated for Proposition 47 which changed the sentencing guidelines,” McBride said.

  “So, right now, you can literally go out and do whatever you want, commit crimes, and you will be out faster than the officers can finish the report, and that’s a fact.”

  Supporters of the bill claim California’s prisons are now less filled with prisoners because of it, while opponents say that lawbreaking has surged as many crimes, that were earlier felonies, such as shoplifting, are now considered misdemeanors, and offenders are easily let out.

  

  Based on 2020 data from the Public Policy Institute of California, Los Angeles reported a 40 percent increase in homicides from the previous year, while Oakland, San Francisco, and San Diego reported 36, 41-48, and 50-58 percent hikes respectively.

  “We’re wondering how many times somebody has to be arrested here in L.A. before they stay in jail,” said McBride, adding that there’s a lot of violence in the city and that’s unsafe for people to go shopping.

  Los Angeles was number one in the top 10 worst cities in the U.S. for retail crime, according to a 2020 survey by the National Retail Federation. The Californian cities of San Francisco and Sacramento also featured on the list. The Bay Area has especially been hit with a spate of retail theft.

  McBride advocated for getting rid of “progressive district attorneys” who he said, support criminals.

  “And to be honest with you, it shouldn’t matter if you’re a Republican or a Democrat. I think we should all want to feel safe in your home, and we should be tough on crime, and that’s where it starts. We have to start from the top and clean house all the way down,” he said.

  When asked whether low bail and Proposition 47 were considered compassionate policies as expounded by progressives, McBride said that the criminals are not out for grabbing “milk, meat, cheese,” but “Rolex watches,” hitting “jewelry stores,” and “Louis Vuitton stores.”

  He added that the ACLU was a “partner-in-crime for the suspects,” and brought up the website, ACLU-Watch, where he says details of how the organization helps criminals succeed, and “stay on the streets and commit crimes” are given.

  Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) made a controversial statement last week to The Washington Times when she said,

  “A lot of these allegations of organized retail theft are not actually panning out. I believe it’s a Walgreens in California cited it, but the data didn’t back it up.”

  In response, Walgreens told the Times that crime “has evolved beyond shoplifting and petty theft to the sale of stolen and counterfeit goods online.”

  As organized crime remains one of the top challenges, security costs at Walgreens’ San Francisco stores have shot up 46 times the national average.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 22:20

• These Are The Things Real People Are Spending Millions Of Real Dollars On, In The Metaverse
  These Are The Things Real People Are Spending Millions Of Real Dollars On, In The Metaverse

  While billions are joking about Facebook’s “metaverse” plans, real people are spending millions (and soon billions) in real cash to buy imaginary objects. As BofA’s Alkesh Shah writes, metaverse land (and yacht) purchases are accelerating as blockchain-enabled applications and new frontiers continue to develop.

  Here are some examples of what people are spending all too real money on:

  • Metaverse Group, a subsidiary of Tokens.com, purchased a 116-parcel estate in Decentraland’s Fashion Street district for ~$2.4 million (618k MANA) on Nov 23.1 If you’re wondering where Decentraland is on the map, it’s not.The 6,090 square feet of digital land purchased exists solely in the metaverse. The purchase was the largest acquisition of metaverse land to date and equates to 0.13% of all land to ever exist in Decentraland. And as Decentralands monthly users are expected to reach an all-time high of 300k this month it is not surprising that so many individuals and organizations want a piece of the action.

  

  • Republic Realm, a digital real estate firm, purchased 259 parcels of land in Decentraland’s Metajuku district for ~$914k (1.3mn MANA) on Jun 18. The firm plans to transform its 16,000 square feet of digital land into a virtual shopping district where users can purchase digital wearables.

  • Retail stores are leased and operated by third parties with current occupancy at 40%. If the idea of digital clothing sounds a bit farfetched, Balenciaga, Burberry,Dolce & Gabbana, Givenchy, Gucci and Louis Vuitton, among others, have already released digital collections.
     
  • Axie Infinity, a play-to-earn gaming platform, announced on Nov 24 that it had sold a “Genesis” plot of digital land – one of 220 – for ~$2.3 million (550ETH).

  Yesterday, an Axie Genesis Plot sold for 550 ETH!

  This was the largest sale ever for a single plot of digital land ✨🔥

  Learn about Land 👇https://t.co/6zPh0roPqG pic.twitter.com/4h5yERCwwO

  — Axie Infinity🦇🔊 (@AxieInfinity) November 25, 2021

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  • Worried about inflated land prices? You probably should be… although it is likely that they prices will get much higher before they pop: the largest known sale of metaverse (sur)real estate took place at the all too real price of $4.3 million. Republic Realm said it paid $4.3 million for land in the world Sandbox, the biggest virtual real-estate sale publicized to date. Republic Realm bought the digital land from videogame company Atari SA and the two firms said they plan to partner on the development of some of the properties.

  .@JanineYorio on @CNN with @richardquest on how buying digital real estate now is like buying land in Manhattan when it was still forest and farmland. Watch clip here: pic.twitter.com/CBnPdNNEeB

  — Republic Realm (@joinrepublic_re) December 7, 2021

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  • That acquisition broke a record set just last week by a subsidiary of Canadian investment firm Tokens.com Corp., which said it paid around $2.5 million for land in the world Decentraland’s Fashion District: “This is like buying land in Manhattan 250 years ago as the city is being built,” said Andrew Kiguel, chief executive of Tokens.com.

  • Then there are yachts: Republic Realm sold its Metaflower Super Mega Yacht, a virtual yacht, on Nov 23 for ~$650k (149 ETH) in The Sandbox to an anonymous buyer.

  

  • The yacht includes a relaxing Jacuzzi, two helipads, lounge areas, and even a dance floor to entertain its guest.

  

  Needless to say, such “meta” investments are extremely risky. Unlike actual real estate, which tends to retain some value even during a market downturn, the value of virtual properties could fall to zero if the world they are in goes out of fashion and people stop visiting it.

  Prices can also be slammed by the volatility of cryptocurrencies, said Zach Aarons, general partner of the real-estate-focused venture-capital firm MetaProp. “If I buy a building for 40 ETH, and then ethereum goes from $4,000 to $100, that’s a fundamental risk that I’m not really taking when I’m buying a piece of physical real estate,” he said.

  That hasn’t stopped the meta craze from reaching all the way to the very top: Sotheby’s created a virtual replica of its New Bond Street Galleries headquarters in London in Decentraland’s Voltaire Art District, where its Natively Digital NFT auction on Jun 3 was streamed. The structure features all five ground level gallery spaces as well as the figure of Sotheby’s London Commissionaire, Hans Lomulder, on hand to greet visitors.

  

  Michael Bouhanna, specialist and head of sales at Sotheby’s said that “we see spaces like Decentraland as the next frontier for digital art where artists, collectors and viewers alike can engage with one another from anywhere in the world and showcase art that is fundamentally scarce and unique, but accessible to anyone for viewing.”

  BofA’s take: “the metaverse consists of persistent virtual reality platforms, powered by blockchain technology, which allow users to interact through augmented reality (AR) headsets. Similar to the Gold Rush, investors and speculators are securing what they expect to be valuable assets within this new frontier. We expect the development of infrastructure (railroads) in the form of on-ramps and interoperability of digital assets. The Metaverse is worth paying attention to, given a potential market opportunity of $1tn.4 We expect development of this new frontier over the next decade, leading to interoperable environments that allow users to interact, play games, attend concerts and visit art galleries, as well as buy, sell and trade NFTs.”

  To be clear, “the metaverse has already arrived with ~$392 million spent this year on metaverse-related digital assets.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 22:00

• CIA Chief: No Evidence Iran Is Seeking Nukes
  CIA Chief: No Evidence Iran Is Seeking Nukes

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  Early this week, CIA Director William Burns said the US does not have evidence that Iran has decided to weaponize its nuclear program.

  The CIA “doesn’t see any evidence that Iran’s Supreme Leader [Ali Khamenei] has made a decision to move to weaponize,” Burns told The Wall Street Journal’s annual CEO Council, The Times of Israel reported.

  

  Burns’ admission comes a week after the US and Iran resumed indirect negotiations in Vienna to revive the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA. The latest round of talks concluded Friday and are expected to resume this Thursday.

  On the ongoing talks, the CIA chief was quoted in the following:

  Burns said Monday that “the Iranians have not been taking the negotiation seriously at this point,” before adding, “we’ll see soon enough about how serious they are.”

  Israeli officials have been claiming that Iran is only trying to buy time with the negotiations as it secretly develops a nuclear bomb.

  For decades now, Israel has been making similar warnings, but Iran has always insisted it does not want nuclear weapons and Israel is currently the only nuclear-armed state in the region.

  US: #Iran cant have nuclear weapons while we have 1000s & let Israel have them

  Iran: ok

  US: Iran must submit to inspections

  Iran: ok

  US: Iran must have limits on its program

  Iran: ok

  US: Iran must return to compliance

  Iran: lift sanctions

  US: Iran isn’t serious about deal

  — Assal Rad (@AssalRad) December 3, 2021

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  Burns’ comments counter the Israeli claims and could be a sign that the US might be breaking from Israel on the issue. Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett demanded to Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the US must “immediately” halt negotiations with Iran.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 21:40

• Safeway Redesigns San Francisco Store To Prevent 'Flash Mob' Robberies 
  Safeway Redesigns San Francisco Store To Prevent ‘Flash Mob’ Robberies 

  A Safeway grocery store in San Francisco, California, has redesigned the front end of its store to mitigate shoplifting and smash and grab mobs. 

  “This Safeway is getting weirder and weirder,” one shopper told San Francisco Chronicle who walked through a newly installed electronic gate at the entrance of the store. The gates allow customers to enter the store but prevent looters from running out with a cart full of stolen items. 

  

  Barriers were added throughout the checkout area, directing customers leaving the store into a single file line. Unused checkout aisles were blocked with large physical barriers. The store’s side entrance was blocked by a new display of heavy plastic water bottles. 

  “Like other local businesses, we are working on ways to curtail escalating theft to ensure the wellbeing of our employees and to foster a welcoming environment for our customers. Their safety remains our top priority,” Wendy Gutshall, director of public and government affairs for Safeway’s Northern California Division, said in an emailed statement.

  “These long-planned security improvements were implemented with those goals in mind,” Gutshall said. 

  Safeway has yet to roll out the new security measures at other stores. The one on 2020 Market St appears to be a pilot test. It also reduced operating hours — now closing at 9 pm to prevent late-night thefts. 

  Other stores like Home Depot, CVS, Target, and Best Buy have been crushed by flash mobs across California in recent weeks. Readers may recall that a criminal gang raided a San Francisco-area Nordstrom at the end of November, stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of items. There has also been a flash mob raid of a Louis Vuitton store in The Bay Area.

  We have routinely pointed out that progressive laws to downgrade retail theft of less than $950 worth of goods from a felony to a misdemeanor has led to an uncontrollable surge in looting, forcing some retailers to abandon the metro area. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 21:20

• Maryland Man Charged After Allegedly Distributing Hundreds Of Fake Vaccine Cards
  Maryland Man Charged After Allegedly Distributing Hundreds Of Fake Vaccine Cards

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  A Maryland man has been charged with mail fraud and obstruction of justice after allegedly ordering and selling hundreds of fake COVID-19 vaccination cards, according to the Department of Justice.

  

  Amar Salim Shabazz, 23, of Owings Mills, faces up to 40 years in prison if convicted.

  According to court documents obtained by The Epoch Times, Shabazz utilized a Chinese online marketplace to order more than 600 of the fake cards, some of which contained misspelled words such as “COVD” instead of COVID-19.

  Shabazz promoted the cards on his Instagram and Facebook accounts, asking $75 each and encouraging interested individuals to message him.

  Shabazz indicated the racket was going well. On Aug. 6, he posted on Facebook that he had just 17 cards left.

  “They’re going like hot cakes,” he wrote, adding four days later that he was out until the following week.

  “I’m gonna be rich,” Shabazz told a connection on Instagram.

  A fresh shipment authorities say was ordered by the Maryland man and originated in Hong Kong was seized by customs officers at a DHL shipping company facility in Kentucky. Officers found 503 fake vaccination cards and indicated online there was a hold on the package.

  Shabazz went online the same day and searched for “customs inspection packages VACCINATION cards” and watched videos about fake vaccination cards being found.

  “[Expletive] [expletive] u.s. customs yo,” he wrote on Facebook. “Hope my [expletive] make it thru man.”

  A caller authorities believe was Shabazz called DHL inquiring about the package.

  Law enforcement officers replaced the cards with boxes of masks and placed the package outside the front door of Shabazz’s residence. In a video posted to Instagram the next day, Shabazz filmed himself opening up the box, telling viewers, “Look yo, I got masks yo. No [expletive] cards.”

  Soon after, Shabazz is accused of going back to the Chinese marketplace and ordering more of the cards. He appeared to receive the package and started promoting their sale on his social media accounts.

  Authorities got in touch with a woman who bought a card from Shabazz by communicating with him over Instagram and paying him with CashApp. Records from the services provided evidence of the sale.

  

  A conversation between Amar Salim Shabazz and another individual is seen in this screenshot of a court document. (The Epoch Times via DOJ)

  Other customers were also interviewed.

  Search warrants were executed on Shabazz’s residence in late September and authorities found fake cards inside Shabazz’s Lexus and receipts for UPS shipping costs related to shipments to several individuals identified as having received the papers.

  “The feds kicked in my door on Friday I might be going to jail soon hopefully not,” Shabazz messaged an unnamed person on Instagram.

  Shabazz was charged on Dec. 3, arraigned, and released pending trial.

  A public defender representing him declined to comment.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 21:00

• Gentrification Tsunami Transforms Austin Into Least Affordable US City
  Gentrification Tsunami Transforms Austin Into Least Affordable US City

  Austin, Texas is one of the nation’s fastest-gentrifying cities as the rapid influx of affluent millennials pushes out low-income residents. Parts of Autin that were once lined with mobile home parks and industrial yards have become modern apartment buildings and trendy restaurants, according to NYTimes. 

  The working poor of Austin, many of which reside in Black and Latino neighborhoods, find themselves in a rapidly changing city impacted by gentrification. Younger generations have been pouring into Austin over the last decade, supercharged in the last few years as large technology companies expand operations in the metro area. 

  A decade ago, Austin was one of the most affordable places to live in the country and a liberal oasis. Now it’s become one of the least affordable areas. On average, 180 new people were moving to the city every day during the pandemic as housing inventory was historically low. This combination ignited home prices, hitting a record of $536,000 in October, up from about $441,250 a year ago. Prices are more than doubled since 2011. 

  Soaring home prices, rising property taxes, and redevelopment projects have unleashed gentrification in more than 35 neighborhoods, and another 23 are at risk, according to a 2018 study by the University of Texas. 

  

  “We knew it was coming,” said Francisco Nuñez, who lived in a Cactus Rose Mobile Home Park trailer for over two decades. He said the trailer park was sold to a developer to make way for new apartments that cost double his rent. This trend is happening all over the city and pushing the working poor further and further outside city limits.

  Working poor are not happy with gentrification. 

  

  Much of the gentrification has been due to an exodus of people from California and Northeast states, attracted by new jobs and the economic prosperity of a thriving city due to Apple, Amazon, IBM, AT&T, Tesla, and Samsung opening new campuses or expanding operations. 

  The flurry of high-paying tech jobs in the city has unleashed inflationary forces on the metro area, boosting the cost of living from one of the cheapest in the US to the most expensive in under a decade. Rob Gordon, the manager and real estate agent with the realty company, JBGoodwin, said the city expanded by 160,000 people in the last decade. 

  Gordon said that the neighborhood of Northwest Hills, about 20 minutes from downtown, saw a large buying wave this spring, with 18 of the 19 homes bought over the list price. He said one home was listed for $975k and sold for $1.395 million. 

  For as liberal as Austin is, one would suspect an uproar from local politicians amid the gentrification crisis in the city. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 20:40

• New Zealand Prime Minister Admits "There's Not Going To Be An End Point To This Vaccination Program"
  New Zealand Prime Minister Admits “There’s Not Going To Be An End Point To This Vaccination Program”

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has candidly revealed that “there’s not going to be an end point to this vaccination program.”

  

  Yes, really.

  “So long as there’s people who are eligible who haven’t been vaccinated, we’ve got work to do,” said Ardern.

  “Do you know, I don’t think I’ll ever be satisfied so long as there’s someone who is eligible and hasn’t been (vaccinated),” she added.

  NEW – “There’s not going to be an endpoint to this vaccination program…,” says New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern.pic.twitter.com/YdjZEIBGFx

  — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) December 7, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “There’s not going to be an end point to this vaccination program,” the Prime Minister revealed, while calling on people who got jabbed six months ago to come back for another shot.

  Ardern delivered the message while adopting her familiar passive-aggressive smiley mannerism, as seen many times before when she casually revealed the next step in COVID authoritarianism.

  People who fail to continually get vaccinated will face the same fate as those who have continued to resist compulsory shots, they’ll be out of work, face social ostracization and God only knows what else in the future.

  Enjoy your lifetime booster shots and enjoy not being able to travel, visit a restaurant or eventually go in a shop if you miss out on just one.

  Remember, if you don’t take the Pfizer jab for life, you’ll never be “fully vaccinated”.

  It truly never ends.

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 20:20

• "The Problem Is Getting Worse" – China Sees New Marriages Fall To Lowest Level In 13 Years
  “The Problem Is Getting Worse” – China Sees New Marriages Fall To Lowest Level In 13 Years

  Back in April, we reported that the Chinese government had just documented its first decline in its massive population since the Communists seized power in 1949, raising fears about systemic deflation. Could China, lauded as the world’s rising super power, fall victim to “Japanification” before the 100th anniversary of the CCP seizing power in 2049?

  The possibility is clearly a cause for consternation among the most senior CCP officials, including President Xi himself.

  Beijing has only recently eased its restrictions on family size, allowing couples to have up to three kids. But it will likely take decades for these changes to make a difference. In the mean time, Chinese couples are facing some of the same obstacles to marriage and starting a family that young people in the US are also complaining about.

  

  According to the FT, efforts to lower the cost of marriage and child birth have largely failed to encourage more marriages in the rapidly-aging Asian society. Back in April, the Ministry of Civil Affairs launched an “education drive” to try and make marriage more affordable in 29 cities, as the cost of the ceremony has risen beyond the reach of average families. Instead of boosting the marriage rate, the rate of Chinese weddings fell to a 13-year low, according to the rate of new marriage licenses. Issuance of new licenses fell to 5.9MM during the first three quarters of 2021, marking the lowest level in 13 years. Rates of marriage license issuance has fallen for the past 8 years now.

  And authorities aren’t ignorant of what the demographic impact will be since out-of-wedlock childbirth in China is much less common than it is in the US.

  “A drop in marriage will affect birth rates and in turn economic and social development,” said Yang Zongtao, a senior official at the MCA last year. “We are hoping to…actively create favourable conditions for more people of suitable ages to walk into marriage.”

  One study carried out by researchers at Chengdu-based Southwest Jiatong University in five provinces found the average cost of a dowry and engagement gifts, including the bribe’s dowry (items given range from cash to housing) had exploded over the past 7 years by between 50% to 100% to at least 300K RMB ($47K). That’s more than 6x the annual household income.

  “The problem is getting worse and worse,” said Wang Xiangyang, an author of the Southwest Jiaotong study.

  In many ways, the CCP created this problem with decades of its one-child policy. The policy has led to major imbalances in the population of men vs. the population of women. The imbalance has barely improved since the 2010 census, despite the fact that Beijing first abolished the policy more than 5 years ago. Right now, there are 2.2M single men aged 25-34 and only 1.2MM single women in the same age group, according to official data.

  But there’s little Beijing can do now, aside from “importing” women from poorer nations en masse. Men are effectively encouraged to find wives abroad since there simply aren’t enough age-appropriate women at home.

  “The space for new policy is limited when you have more young men than women,” said a Beijing-based government adviser. “It is inevitable that a lot of men will remain single in their lifetime.”

  […]

  “We are not going to see a recovery in marriage when gender imbalance is so big,” the adviser added.

  In addition to the “education drive” we noted above, the central government has also ordered the creation of hundreds of marriage councils involving local officials, dignitaries and matchmakers to persuade couples to marry and follow the official line.

  As for the expectations surrounding dowries, one anonymous CCP official told the FT that “we keep telling young women and their parents that happiness has nothing to do with how many engagement gifts they receive.”

  But at least one young, recently-married man told the FT that the propaganda encouraging marriage likely won’t be accepted by the Chinese people.

  “No woman will marry me if I take the official propaganda for granted,” said a 28-year-old man surnamed Wang, who paid his in-laws Rmb99,999 in cash and Rmb50,000 worth of gold jewellery before his August wedding.

  “I am happy to have a wife, but not so about my parents having to empty their savings to help me achieve that goal.”

  Ultimately, the biggest hurdle for Beijing is similar to the hurdles facing the US: fewer women see marriage as a necessity, and a growing share of those who do want to settle down are waiting longer, leaving them less time to build a family. One survey conducted in May of young adults in Lishui, a rural county in eastern China, found that 60% of female respondents considered marriage necessary, compared with 82% for men.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 20:00

• Judge Grants Project Veritas Request To Insert Special Master After FBI Raids
  Judge Grants Project Veritas Request To Insert Special Master After FBI Raids

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  A federal judge on Wednesday agreed to appoint a special master to shield certain materials from the bureau and prosecutors that the FBI seized from Project Veritas.

  

  A special master, typically a retired judge, is appointed in a small number of cases to sift through seized materials and separate out documents that are privileged, or legally protected from authorities.

  While a government filter team could adequately go through the materials, a special master is being appointed to “ensure ‘the perception of fairness,’” U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres, an Obama nominee, wrote in the 5-page order.

  “In light of the potential First Amendment concerns that may be implicated by the review of the materials seized from petitioners, the court finds that the appointment of a special master will ‘help[] to protect the public’s confidence in the administration of justice,’” she added.

  Retired Judge Barbara Jones, a Clinton nominee, was appointed as special master.

  The government was ordered to finish extracting materials from the devices owned by James O’Keefe, Project Veritas’ founder, and two former Project Veritas employees and hand over the materials to Jones to go through.

  Jones will set aside any material not responsive to search warrants approved by a different judge last month, which allowed the FBI to raid the residences of O’Keefe, Eric Cochran, and Spencer Meads. She will hand over any materials responsive to the warrants to the filter team, which will then review the documents to determine if any should be withheld from the separate investigative team for reasons such as attorney-client privilege.

  Project Veritas lawyers can object to any materials cleared to go to the investigative team and Jones will rule on each objection.

  Torres denied another request from petitioners. They had asked the judge to order the government to search for the source of leaked information given to the New York Times related to the raids and the materials seized. She declined, asserting they did not provide a legal basis for their request or allege that the government violated any rule, law, or policy.

  FBI agents raided the homes searching for evidence of a conspiracy involving a diary said to belong to President Joe Biden’s daughter Ashley Biden.

  Project Veritas lawyers said most of the seized materials were privileged and unrelated to the Ashley Biden diary, emphasizing a need for a special master. The government opposed appointing a special master, arguing a filter team would be adequate.

  The ruling came one day after Magistrate Judge Sarah Cave rejected a second attempt to force the unsealing of records that convinced the judge to approve the warrants.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 19:40

• Russia's Second-Richest Man Faces $7 Billion Claim In Divorce Court
  Russia’s Second-Richest Man Faces $7 Billion Claim In Divorce Court

  Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, pretty much every prominent hedge fund managers in the past 5 years, and now Vladimir Potanin, Russia’s second-richest man, confirm that the best investment someone – presumably a woman, but in these gender fluid times anything goes – can make in this bizarro world is a stinking rich (soon to be ex) husband.

  According to Bloomberg, Potanin is facing one of the world’s biggest divorce claims after Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates: his ex-wife, Natalia Potanina, is seeking 50% of the value of his stake in MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, outlining the maximum amount at a London court hearing Tuesday. That amount could exceed $7 billion, given that Potanin owns around one-third of the shares in the metal producer.

  

  Potanin is fighting the case after Potanina overturned a lower court that accused her of “divorce tourism” a term loosely popularized by the 2003 George Clooney movie Intolerable Cruelty. Potanin is still waiting to hear whether the U.K. Supreme Court will consider an appeal, Judge Nicholas Francis said.

  

  Senior judges recently gave Natalia Potanina, his ex-wife, the green light to pursue the 60-year-old through the English courts – despite the fact the Russian courts divorced them seven years ago.

  According to Bloomberg, London’s divorce courts have been a popular destination for high-value legal fights, with judges typically prepared to order a more equal share of a couple’s assets. In the U.K., the largest publicly known payout in a divorce is currently 450 million pounds ($631 million) to the wife of billionaire Farkhad Akhmedov – though the two settled with a payment of less than one-third of that amount.

  Potanina said that in addition to the Norilsk stock, she would be prepared to accept 50% of all dividends on the shares from 2014. Her former husband has collected some 487.3 billion rubles ($6.6 billion) in dividends since then and has a net worth of $29.9 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Potanina is also seeking half of the value of an expensive Russian property known as the Autumn House.

  Potanina said she received around $40 million following Russian divorce proceedings while Potanin said she ended up with $84 million — a sum that by English standards is a “paltry award” given his wealth and the length of their 31-year-marriage, a judge said in a previous decision.

  Another Russian billionaire, Dmitry Rybolovlev, was the subject of a high-profile divorce that unfolded over six jurisdictions and resulted in years of acrimony. In 2014, a Swiss judge awarded his ex-wife, Elena Rybolovleva, $4.5 billion, though a subsequent ruling slashed the amount to just over $600 million.

  However, nobody struck ex-husband gold quite like MacKenzie Scott – the former Mrs Jeff Bezos had a net worth of $62.2 billion, thanks to her 4% stake in Amazon, which she received as part of her divorce settlement. Scott is the third-wealthiest woman in the United States, and the 21st-wealthiest individual in the world.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 19:20

• China Could Cause The Next Massive Crash In Oil Prices
  China Could Cause The Next Massive Crash In Oil Prices

  Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

  • China has been one of the main drivers of the 2000-2014 commodities supercycle

  • Slower economic growth and a huge debt bubble pose a tremendous risk to oil markets

  • China’s Evergrande crisis shows the fragility of the Chinese debt market

  Given the extreme disconnect between China’s huge economy-driven oil and gas needs and its minimal level of domestic oil and gas reserves, the country’s influence over oil prices has long been profound. As a result of this imbalance, China almost alone created the 2000-2014 commodities ‘supercycle’, characterized by consistently rising price trends for all commodities that are used in a booming manufacturing and infrastructure environment. This was a product largely of the 8 percent-plus annual GDP growth recorded by China over that period, with many spikes well above 10 percent and only a relatively short move down in economic growth at the onset of the Great Financial Crisis. Aside from huge quantities of imported oil and gas, this massive economic growth was fuelled by enormous debt piled up but then hidden away in various financial mechanisms that China believed it could simply pay off eventually through its rapid economic growth. Developments in the last week or so hint that both of these bubbles may be set to burst, taking the big bid in oil out of the market.

  “Despite some easing in the energy market, downside risks to growth persist, and we continue to expect GDP growth to ease to 5.2 percent in 2022 from an estimated 8.2 percent growth in 2021,” Eugenia Fabon Victorino, head of Asia Strategy for SEB, in Singapore, told OilPrice.com last week.

  “Easing in financial conditions will not spare the property sector from further pains, and bond defaults will continue to test investors’ nerves,” she said.

  The country’s Manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) for November unexpectedly surprised to the upside, coming in at 50.1 (anything above 50 indicates an expansion) for November (compared to 49.2 in October), while its Non-Manufacturing PMI for November registered 52.3 (compared to 52.4 in October) but official figures from China relating to its economy should be taken with a dose of skepticism. Looking ahead, highlighted Victorino:

  “The uncertainty surrounding the omicron variant will likely strengthen the resolve of the authorities to stick to its zero-tolerance policy towards COVID-19, even if it remains a dampener on private spending.”

  Meanwhile, she added:

  “Investment continues to deteriorate, [and] although fiscal policy turned marginally supportive as Beijing urged local governments to speed up mature projects, the impact on infrastructure activity is unlikely to become evident until the first quarter of 2022, in our view.” 

  

  Added to this macroeconomic uncertainty is increasing unease that China’s long-disguised bubble of debt will finally explode. Originally brought to light by the then-Fitch analyst, Charlene Chu, China had long been hiding vast quantities of debt that it had accrued through a multitude of state-related businesses through a range of difficult-to-examine schemes, most notably back then ‘wealth management products’ (WMPs). Typically, these offered a high rate of return and were up until recently effectively unregulated and were mainly sold to the public. More latterly they were also sold increasingly to banks and other financial institutions. In practical terms, they were an amalgam of layers and layers of liabilities built upon the same underlying assets, much as was seen with subprime asset-backed securities that the Western banks had in 2007/08 in the lead up to the onset of the Great Financial Crisis.

  Combined with the corollary bubbles in China’s housing and other asset markets that have been inflating over the past few years, as analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets, the situation in China right now is very similar to the one in the West in 2007/08 to which nobody paid attention until there started to be bankruptcies, which then snowballed into the full-blown Great Financial Crisis.  Although officially China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is currently just under 70 percent, in reality, it is much higher. Even according to the People’s Bank of China’s own data, outstanding ‘total social financing’ (which measures overall credit supply to the economy) stood at CNY284.83 trillion (USD44.1 trillion) at the end of December 2020, up 13.3 percent from a year earlier, with an increasing share of this being used to pay debt servicing costs. 

  Even back when China’s economy was growing at an average of 8 percent-plus per year, year in year out, it was mathematically not possible for it to grow its way out of this debt burden, and with GDP set to fall to around 5 percent or lower next year and likely beyond that, the concerns over China’s mountainous debt position have only increased with recent news of debt-related troubles at Evergrande. Originally a real estate developer – therefore, at the center of the Chinese government’s previous initiatives to fuel economic growth by huge infrastructure building projects, including new towns and cities – Evergrande took on even more debt (including through extensive bond issues) expanding its business portfolio. Overall, at a minimum – and these are just the known figures – Evergrande’s expansion in real estate (it owns more than 1,300 projects in more than 280 cities across China) and into wealth management, electric car production, and food and drink manufacturing, among others, cost it over US$300 billion in borrowing. Unsurprisingly, it is struggling to pay this debt and to service its bond payments, just like those who have known about China’s hidden debt pile for years were warning.

  “Although concerns of contagion beyond the property sector have pulled back, risk appetite for China’s offshore bond markets remains weak,” Victorino told OilPrice.com last week. “The real estate sector accounts for only 2.2 percent of the incoming bond maturities in the onshore market in 2022, but the share of real estate bonds maturities in the offshore bond market is substantially higher at almost 18 percent,” she said. “In the coming year, refinancing needs of the real estate sector in the offshore market will rise by around US$10 billion to almost US$57 billion, and total offshore maturities are expected to peak in March and April,” she underlined. “Considering that hawkish policy on the real estate sector will remain, defaults will continue to test investors’ nerves in 2022,” she concluded. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 19:00

• 'David Burge' Goes Ballistic Over Civil Asset Forfeiture After Dallas Cops Snatch $100K From Innocent Woman
  ‘David Burge’ Goes Ballistic Over Civil Asset Forfeiture After Dallas Cops Snatch $100K From Innocent Woman

  On Tuesday, CBS Dallas glorified an incident at Dallas Love Field Airport in which a 25-year-old woman traveling with $100,000 in cash had it seized by the cops in what’s known as civil asset forfeiture. If you need a primer, see our previous reporting here and here.

  CBS reported:

  High praise for a K-9 officer at Dallas Love Field Airport after more than $100,000 was found in a passenger’s luggage.

  On December 2 the canine — named ‘Ballentine’ — alerted on an individual checked suitcase. It turns out the bag, that belonged to 25-year-old woman from Chicago who was on a layover at the airport, contained blankets and two large bubble envelopes filled with $106,829 in cash.

  The woman who owned the bag was not arrested, but the money was seized and police say it will be subject to the civil asset forfeiture process.

  In short, the network spun an egregious theft from an innocent, uncharged citizen by making it about a ‘cute’ police K-9.

  High praise for a K-9 officer at Dallas Love Field Airport after more than $100,000 was found in a passenger’s luggage. https://t.co/lJoDg5lWfh pic.twitter.com/sA1unHSCCB

  — CBSDFW (@CBSDFW) December 7, 2021

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  The report infuriated many, maybe none more so than Twitter user ‘David Burge’ (@iowahawkblog), an opinionator perhaps best known for his amazing knowledge of all things vintage automotive (seriously, he’s an encyclopedia).

  D.A.R.E. to Keep Kids Off Cash

  — David Burge (@iowahawkblog) December 7, 2021

  Continued…

  true story, I once sold a very nice car to a guy who drove from TX to Chicago to get it. Paid in cash, and it was… a shit ton of money. Gave me phone # of his bank in TX, and they verified that he had made the cash withdrawal 2 days earlier, so not counterfeit. I asked him if he was nervous driving 1200 miles with that much cash on him, and he sorta laughed and said, “nah, I always travel with my friend,” and showed me the .45 he kept under the seat of his truck. Never asked him why he wanted to pay cash, cuz none of my business.

  I thought he was nuts. Not because of the threat of robbers, but because of the threat of asset forfeiture cops. At that point his .45 would be useless, or get him thrown in jail. Or killed. And I’m pretty sure telling the cop “I’m using it to buy a car” wouldn’t wash. Anyway, he was an older white guy in a pickup with a trailer, so maybe he really didn’t have much to worry about. Now imagine two younger black or Hispanic guys, traveling to buy a cheap old car for $7000, and they get pulled over. Now it’s asset forfeiture open season.

  Fact is it’s at the discretion of the cop. If you can’t explain to the cop’s satisfaction why you have that much money, they can conclude it was acquired illegally, and Fuck You buddy, hire a lawyer to prove it wasn’t. Which will cost you more that the cash itself. And where does that confiscated money go? It stays right there with the cops, natch, so they can spend it on surplus armored MRAPs and such, a reward for keeping us citizens safe from the danger of people driving around with cash.

  real Sheriff of Nottingham bullshit.

  There are plenty of legitimate reasons for people to carry large amounts of cash, no matter how “sketchy” or “suspicious” or “nervous” the cops find them. For crissakes, who wouldn’t be, talking to an armed bandit with a badge?

  /8

  — David Burge (@iowahawkblog) December 7, 2021

  How this abomination against due process is allowed to continue in this country simply boggles my mind. I have to believe it’s an issue that should unite people across the political spectrum. Who the fuck could possibly defend it as policy? Are you going to charge the suspect with committing a crime? No? The it doesn’t matter how he came by the cash, it’s none of your fucking business. Good day, Officer O’Greedy. And even if you are, say, like a speeding ticket, it’s still none of you fucking business.

  Take for example the two young black or Hispanic dudes driving to buy a beater car, with $7k cash and oops, 2 grams of weed in the glovebox. When O’Greedy pulls ’em over for speeding that 2g of weed better not be probable cause to conclude they’re carrying Cartel cash.

  I’ve been bitching about this for 20 years, and the most frustrating thing is that everyone, left and right, seems to agree with me. And yet nothing changes, because the only beneficiary of CAF is The State.

  /13

  — David Burge (@iowahawkblog) December 7, 2021

  On Wednesday, Burge continued after someone accused him of a ‘bad take.’

  I am somewhat perplexed by the number of people in my replies who think that there is no legitimate reason for carrying large amounts of cash, that it’s evidence of crime, or that it is itself a crime.

  Lemme give some examples from the old car biz.

  — David Burge (@iowahawkblog) December 8, 2021

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  Continued…

  I know lots of people who make their living in antique cars, buying/selling cars, and car parts, at swap meets and auctions and such. The majority of those transactions are done in cash. “Oooh, nice old Guide headlights, how much?” “$300, cash only.”

  I know plenty of people who bring a trailer full of parts, rolling projects, etc., to big swap meets. At the end of a good weekend, they might have $10k, $20k or more in cash, heading home. You are crazy if you don’t think they’re gonna conceal it.

  Now imagine a state trooper pulls them over for a busted taillight, and they make the mistake of letting the trooper search their vehicle. Because of CAF you can bet the trooper is walking away with their cash. And >0% chance he might just impound their vehicle, too.

  You see, the mere fact that he had a $20k wad of cash hidden in his truck is evidence that he’s a mule for the Mexican cartels and stuff. “Old car swap meet”? Yeah likely story pal, here’s your receipt, tell it to the judge.

  Oh, hey, no problem. All he has to do now is hire a lawyer, spend a few months convincing a kindly judge how it was all just a big misunderstanding, after which the cops and will cheerfully return all his cash, and everyone will share a laugh about the wacky mixup, freeze frame.

  sorry, I was hallucinating there for a minute. There are people who buy cars at salvage auctions, or conduct estate sales, sell at farmers markets or art fairs, on and on. All have legitimate reasons for carrying large amounts of cash.

  But there’s no legitimate reason they should have to explain that to a cop so he won’t just take it away from them. The crazy thing is that CAF has no *floor* on what might be considered “sketchy” amounts of cash. There are case of $200 or less being taken.

  Take for example the young woman who had $100k in cash taken from her at the Dallas airport yesterday, or the former Marine who had his $87k life savings swiped by the Nevada highway cops a few days ago. Neither were arrested, nor charged with a crime.

  — David Burge (@iowahawkblog) December 8, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  But sure, let’s have heroic Sniffy the Drug Doggie pose with the uncharged woman’s confiscated cash that he found, because it, like 90% of bills in circulation, has trace amounts of cocaine residue on it. Rrrrufff! Help take a bite of cash!

  The legal theory, as I understand it, is that the young woman might not be guilty of anything but her money was guilty of looking suspicious. And since 4A rights only apply to people and not green pieces of paper, she has the burden of proof to show her money was innocent.

  Here’s a contrary opinion from a professor from the Twitter University Center For Constitutional Legal Studieshttps://t.co/v7j3uFEmrV

  — David Burge (@iowahawkblog) December 8, 2021

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  Good thing the State of Nevada doesn’t have any industries there based on cash transactions

  — David Burge (@iowahawkblog) December 8, 2021

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  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 18:40

• Can Any Nation-State Survive The Era Of Inequality And Scarcity?
  Can Any Nation-State Survive The Era Of Inequality And Scarcity?

  Authored by Charles Hugh Mith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  We have an extraordinary opportunity to transform our unsustainable “waste is growth” economy and toxic inequality to sustainable systems that optimize well-being rather than collapse.

  The possibility that the United States could fragment is no longer a marginalized topic. Maps displaying various post-U.S. regional configurations accompany essays exploring how and why a break-up of the U.S. would be a solution to regional and ideological polarization, for example, Max Borders’ recent article, Dear America: It’s Time to Break Up.

  But two forces larger than political polarization may fragment nation-states across the globe, including the U.S.: inequality and scarcity. Inequality and corruption go hand in hand, of course, as the wealthiest few influence the state to protect their monopolies and backstop their speculative gains.

  Inequality also goes hand in hand with the collapse of nation-states, as this seminal paper explains: Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies.

  The parasitic elite can accumulate the majority of income, wealth, political power and resources in eras of expanding abundance, as what’s left is enough to support an expanding populace that consumes more per capita every year, i.e. broad-based prosperity.

  But once abundance transitions to scarcity, the economy and society can no longer sustain the dead weight of its outsized parasitic elite. The parasitic elite believes its bloated share of resources, wealth and power is not only sustainable but can be expanded without consequence, and so it deploys all its formidable power to keep the status quo unchanged even as scarcity lowers the living standards of the bottom 90% and hollows out the economy.

  In effect, the modern central state, regardless of ideological label, optimizes inequality and growth. Once growth falters while inequality continues increasing, the only possible outcome is fragmentation and/or collapse.

  Put another way: the status quo is no longer the solution to inequality and scarcity, it is the problem. Private-sector and political elites are incapable of recognizing they are now the problem, and so the rapid unraveling of the status quo will come as a great shock to their magical-thinking confidence in their power.

  The elite’s delusional “solution” is a seamless, painless transition to a new era of abundance via “green energy.” Unfortunately, this vision is 100% magical thinking, as all these projections ignore the physical realities of building out a global energy system that generates energy on the same scale as existing hydrocarbon energy sources. Read these three reports for reality-based assessments:

  The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking (manhattan-institute.org)

  The Delusion of Infinite Economic Growth: Even “sustainable” technologies such as electric vehicles and wind turbines face unbreachable physical limits and exact grave environmental costs. (scientificamerican.com)

  Assessment of the Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels (PDF, Simon P. Michaux, Geological Survey of Finland) Read the 3-page abstract.

  As explained in the first paper, inequality generates collapse and so does a decline in resources, i.e. scarcity. Put the two together and the only possible outcome is collapse of all centralized nation-states that optimize inequality and endless expansion of consumption.

  The issue isn’t ideological labels or principles, it’s whether the state solves problems or covers them up with fake fixes that accelerate collapse.

  Nations which want to not just survive but emerge stronger have one path: a revolutionary transformation from “waste is growth” to degrowth, from an economy and state dominated by a parasitic elite to a strictly limited parasitic elite and from abject dependence on fragile supply chains originating in other nations to decentralized, localized independence for essentials.

  I’ve written a book that is a template for this transformation. This book is the culmination of a lifetime of study, observation, experience and analysis: Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States.

  

  Though I devote some analysis specifically to the U.S., the book is a template for any nation to not just survive scarcity but emerge stronger by evolving a degrowth economy and a decentralized political order.

  We have an extraordinary opportunity to transform our unsustainable “waste is growth” economy and toxic inequality to sustainable systems that optimize well-being rather than collapse.

  *  *  *

  My new book is now available at a 20% discount this month: Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $8.95, print $20). If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.
   

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 18:20

• Canada Forced To Tap Its "Emergency" Maple Syrup Reserves
  Canada Forced To Tap Its “Emergency” Maple Syrup Reserves

  You’ve heard of the strategic petroleum reserve – but have you heard of Canada’s emergency strategic maple syrup reserve?

  The country has been forced to tap into its “emergency” reserves, according to BBC, amidst a historic global supply shortage. 

  The Quebec Maple Syrup Producers (QMSP), which the BBC article actually refers to as “the so-called OPEC of maple syrup”, has released about 22 million kg of “reserve” syrup from its emergency larder, the report says.

  This amounts to about half the total it holds in reserve. It marks the first time in three years that the reserve has been used. 

  

  Helene Normandin of QMSP told US public radio: “That’s why the reserve is made, to never miss maple syrup. And we won’t miss maple syrup!”

  83 million kg of maple syrup was produced worldwide and 60m kg came from Quebec in 2021, the report says. 

  “Maple sap is tapped directly from sugar maple trees and boiled to concentrate it into maple syrup,” it continues. “It’s painstaking work and is highly dependent on the weather.”

  Quebec produces about 33% of the world’s maple syrup.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 18:00

• Where Is China Going?
  Where Is China Going?

  Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

  “When the winds of change blow, some build walls while others build windmills..”

  Evergrande will default, but the Chinese economy will probably avoid a property contagion crisis as the government becomes increasingly interventionist. Longer term, how will China evolve to cope with Covid, Growth and Demographics?

  

  I’m going to go off on something of a tangent on China today. It can hardly come as much of a surprise to markets that S&P says Evergrande’s default is “inevitable”. (One of my highly coveted No Sh*t Sherlock awards is on its way to the US debt rating firm for stating the downright bleeding obvious).

  Evergrande’s quietus will be a step towards China’s managed deflation of its property bubble, and it’s got massive implications for current and future investors in the economy. Let me stress I don’t believe China’s economy is about to vanish in a cloud of evaporating property dreams, or that a social revolution is around the corner on deflating consumer expectations. But, change will occur.

  I expect China will successfully avoid Evergrande contagion destabilising the economy, and manage a soft-landing, but there is fundamental shift underway – a slowing economy, lethargic growth, and a shift away from capitalism towards a more interventionist state-controlled economy is underway.

  Growth expectations are now around 5% – far below numbers we assumed were deemed necessary by the party just a few years ago. Even that number could be under pressure as the scale of the property effect on the economy comes into play, while China’s isolationist response to Covid means the fast spreading Omicron variant could play havoc with reopening the economy.

  The Thoughts of Chairman Xi now absolutely dominate and set the internal debate – begging the question: just how will China emerge from the immediate uncertainties of a Property Wobble, Covid and Geopolitical Tension, and the long-term question of how China fits into an evolving global economy?

  And, all the time, hiding in the background is the demographic reality:

  Can China get rich before its aging demographic leaves it struggling?

  It’s increasingly difficult to say where China is headed. There is an article in the WSJ: “China Increasingly Obscures True State of Its Economy to Outsiders” summing up how the economy is being shut to outsiders, and the lack of real intelligence available to anyone trying to figure out what’s rea going on. The best we can do is listen to comments around issues like “disorderly expansion” and “stability” – and figure what it means for investment opportunities in China. (Making barely educated guesses with little real information is stock in trade for any market strategist… )

  What is clear is the CCP sees danger and has now embarked on economic stimulus to reinvigorate activity – easing policy in terms of lower Minimum Lending Requirements for banks, and lowering rates even as the global trend is towards tightening. Meanwhile, the economy is being reconstructed to away from free-enterprise towards greater state control and intervention, with regional governments given responsibility for sorting the property mess.

  It all sounds fine in principal, but the history of China includes a critical sub-thread of pernicious regional corruption. That’s a sweeping charge to make, but the Chinese are remarkable traders and entreprenuers – give them space (as happened under Deng Xiaoping) and they thrive pursuing wealth, culminating in the success of China’s many billionaires. Close that door, and the road to riches is more likely to be perceived to be via the state bureaucracy.

  There are close parallels between what’s happening in China and Soviet Russia’s economic history last century – after the revolution a period of chaos and civil war, near economic collapse, before a period of economic reform and liberation of free markets (the New Economic Policy period), before authoritarian figures seized back control of the economy to pre-empt political reform that might have seen them replaced. (In China, as I’ve written about before, it also a case of factions: What’s the Driving Force in China.)

  The CCP is now trying to engineer a soft landing – a survivable property crash-landing, which will have internal and external effects.

  • Domestically, housing costs are unsustainably high, but a crash would devastate China’s middle classes.

  • Internationally, its going to be fascinating to see how defaulting property firms deal with offshore investors – do they ensure they are well treated in default to secure future engagement, or is China willing to risk long-term offshore disappointment by leaving foreign bond holders with the bulk of losses?

  (Trading defaulted China property debt is going to be a fascinating market – how to play it when the rules are changing?)

  However, the real issues aren’t just the tactical questions of how many other Chinese property developers will tumble, how it may impact local banks, or what local governments do, but the strategic issues determining what direction the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) takes next.

  There are a number of key themes emerging:

  How does the CCP replace Property as the core driver of the remarkable growth of China over the last decades? Property accounted for 33% of GDP growth – a massively distorting share. Growth was achieved by persuading Chinese consumers to leverage themselves into property – effectively their wealth is aligned with the success of Government avoiding a messy collapse. Call it Stockholm syndrome if you want – but its little wonder the Chinese middle classes are willing to go do the increasingly strident “patriotic” line pushed by the CCP on issues like Taiwan or the coming Winter Olympics.

  I’ve read much about China becoming the world’s renewable energy builder – but frankly, solar panels and wind turbines are the easy options. China can do them, but hasn’t developed the more difficult technologies we need to diversify renewable energy – that really would be value added.

  The past 30 years of spectacular China growth was not achieved on the back of home-grown technology innovation, productivity gains across Chinese industry, or a financial revolution propelling Chinese banks to the forefront of the global economy and financial system.

  China remains a follower rather than leader in key technologies and industries. It has tried to address its perceived weakness with strategies like the Belt & Road project and debt-diplomacy – enthusiastically lending on infrastructure projects to promote growth likely to boost Chinese exports. These are perceived badly in the West – which is equally keen to protect markets it sees as theirs.

  As the government flexes its increasing control of the economy you have to wonder where China’s private sector fits in – and thus its investibility. The big billionaire names have been “disciplined” and the stock prices of the big firms have suffered in line. The jury is out on how to invest in an increasingly closed China economy.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/08/2021 – 17:40

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