• Chinese Regime Has Stolen Enough Data To Compile "Dossier" On All Americans: Former Official
  Chinese Regime Has Stolen Enough Data To Compile “Dossier” On All Americans: Former Official

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  A former U.S. national security official warned that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is stealing data to compile a “dossier” on every American adult and may use coercive means to influence private citizens and political leaders.

  

  Part of the Chinese Communist Party’s army of “internet trolls” in an undated leaked photo, in Fangzheng County, Harbin City, China. (The Epoch Times)

  During a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing this week, former Trump deputy national security adviser Matthew Pottinger said the CCP has stolen Americans’ sensitive data via illicit methods, including cyber theft and hacking.

  “Assembling dossiers on people has always been a feature of Leninist regimes, but Beijing’s penetration of digital networks worldwide, including using 5G networks … has really taken this to a new level,” Pottinger said, referring to former Soviet dictator Vladimir Lenin.

  With the information the CCP has obtained, he said, it “now compiles dossiers on millions of foreign citizens around the world, using the material that it gathers to influence, target, intimidate, reward, blackmail, flatter, humiliate, and ultimately divide and conquer.”

  Going a step further, Pottinger sounded the alarm that “Beijing’s stolen sensitive data is sufficient to build a dossier on every single American adult and on many of our children too, who are fair game under Beijing’s rules of political warfare.”

  

  Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger arrives for a Medal of Honor ceremony for Sergeant Major Thomas P. Payne, United States Army, for conspicuous gallantry in the East Room of the White House in Washington, on Sept. 11, 2020. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

  For years, the CCP has engaged in campaigns to steal U.S. intellectual property and technology secrets in a bid to militarily and geopolitically gain an advantage over the West.

  The regime has also carried out significant hacks against private entities, including last month’s alleged cyberattack against Microsoft—which the United States and its allies blamed on the Chinese Ministry of State Security. In addition, four Chinese nationals were charged by the Department of Justice over a number of separate cyber intrusions that targeted corporate and research secrets.

  During the hearing, the former director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, William Evanina, said that the CCP is using a “whole of country approach” to “leverage, infiltrate, influence, and steal from every corner of U.S. success.”

  “It is estimated that 80 percent of American adults have had all of their personal data stolen by the CCP, and the other 20 percent most of their personal data,” he said.

  Furthermore, he said that the Chinese regime poses an “existential threat” to the United States and is employing “complex, pernicious, strategic, and aggressive” tactics to accomplish its goals.

  

  William Evanina, nominee to be director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, testifies during a hearing held by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence in Washington, on May 15, 2018. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

  The Chinese regime is even working to illegally obtain data to create artificial intelligence, research, and development programs to bolster its military and economic goals.

  After the recent cyberattacks, Biden administration officials offered sharp criticism against Beijing’s state-sponsored hacks, including intellectual property theft. But the critical words were not accompanied by any punitive actions including diplomatic expulsions or sanctions against the regime.

  Separately, Pottinger also warned about the CCP’s so-called “United Front” efforts to spread propaganda and influence decision-makers around the world and within the United States.

  “The CCP’s 95 million members are all required to participate in the system, which has many different branches. The United Front Work Department alone, which is just one branch, has three times as many cadres as the U.S. State Department has foreign service officers,” he noted.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/08/2021 – 00:00

• Visualizing US Military Spending Relative To The Rest Of The World
  Visualizing US Military Spending Relative To The Rest Of The World

  The U.S. is well known for its immense military and defense spending. In 2020, the nation ranked #1 in the world in terms of military spending at $778 billion outpacing the next nine highest spenders, which came out to $703.6 billion combined.

  As Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop notes, one factor is the military–industrial complex (MIC) which feeds into the U.S.’ defense dominance, with a longstanding tradition of the defense and weapons industries working closely with the U.S. government and armed forces.

  

  A Breakdown of U.S. Military Spending

  So what are these billions being spent on?

  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) laid out the spending plan when they made their 2020 budget proposal. It included a few main areas to invest in, including:

  • Air – $57.7 billion

  • Maritime – $34.7 billion

  • Ground systems – $14.6 billion

  • Space – $14.1 billion

  • Cyber – $6.9 billion

  This is just the tip of the iceberg. The overall goal of the 2020 budget was to promote innovation and to strengthen competitive advantages to increase the military’s ‘readiness’ factor. Additionally, in an effort to sustain forces, a military pay raise of 3.1% was included.

  Military Maintenance

  Surprisingly, however, the U.S. actually does not have the largest military in the world in terms of personnel, and some of the other top 10 countries have larger or similarly sized militaries spread across different branches.

  

  Russia is only the fourth highest spender, but they have the largest military size of any of the top 10, at around 5.9 million personnel.

  All of these countries have militaries that number in the hundreds of thousands to millions, and many are a part of treaties and alliances that require them to upkeep their armies and weaponry — but none spend half as much as the U.S.

  To this day, the U.S. is actively involved in a number of overseas conflicts and maintains a large military force with millions of personnel. Spending on areas such as weaponry and wages is significant in order to maintain jobs, as well as national defense.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 23:30

• 160 San Francisco Sheriffs' Deputies Threaten To Resign Due To Mandatory COVID-19 Vaccine
  160 San Francisco Sheriffs’ Deputies Threaten To Resign Due To Mandatory COVID-19 Vaccine

  Authored by Enrico Trigoso via The Epoch Times,

  A number of San Francisco deputies will seek employment elsewhere or opt for early retirement if they are required to take the COVID-19 vaccine under a new imposed vaccine mandate, warned the city’s sheriff’s union on Friday.

  

  San Francisco officials recently announced that all city employees will have to be vaccinated or face possible termination.

  There are about 35,000 city employees. Religious exemptions or medical reasons may let some bypass the mandate, but those who refuse the shot and have no exemption will encounter consequences that could result in termination, reported the San Francisco Chronicle.

  The San Francisco Deputy Sheriffs’ Association published a statement on Facebook, saying they always supported safety measures against the virus but the issue at hand is that about 160 of their Sheriffs don’t want to take the vaccine due to their beliefs.

  “The problem we are faced with now is the strict San Francisco Mandate which is vaccinate or be terminated. If deputy sheriffs are forced to vaccinate a percentage of them will retire early or seek employment elsewhere,” reads the statement.

  The Sheriff’s Association notes that 160 of their 700 deputies are unwilling to take the vaccine, and that they can’t afford to lose them since they already have the lowest-ever staffing due to applicant testing restrictions imposed by the mayor.

  “The majority of Deputy Sheriffs are vaccinated. Approximately 160 out 700 Deputy Sheriffs are not vaccinated [and] prefer to mask and test weekly instead of being vaccinated due to religious and other beliefs. Currently, the staffing at the SFSO is at the lowest it has ever been due to the past 9-month applicant testing restriction placed on the Sheriff’s Office by the May.”

  The Epoch Times reached out to the San Francisco mayor for comment.

  “It’s really a decision for the health and safety of our employees and our public that we serve,” the city’s director of human resources, Carol Isen, told the San Francisco Chronicle.

  San Francisco and six other counties in the Bay area have reinstated a mask mandate for all indoor public activities due to the appearance of the Delta variant.

  The mask mandate is to be obeyed by everyone, including vaccinated people, reported the Associated Press.

  “It is unfortunate we have to do this at this point in the pandemic. None of us wanted to be here,” Dr. George Han, deputy health officer for Santa Clara County said, “but the virus has changed.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 23:00

• Rich People Buying "Trophy Trees" And "Enormous Crystals" For Their Mansions
  Rich People Buying “Trophy Trees” And “Enormous Crystals” For Their Mansions

  Shortly after the virus pandemic struck, the Federal Reserve unleashed liquidity spigots to drive down borrowing costs and keep the economy from further collapsing. Much of the emergency bond-buying continues to this day and has greatly benefited wealthy people. 

  So much so that house prices are surging to stratospheric levels, along with stocks, bonds, antique cars, wine collections, and fancy artwork have also dramatically risen in price. 

  Over the last year, the world’s billionaires added more than $5 trillion to their wealth, with the wealthiest 2,755 people on earth amassing more than $13 trillion.

  With all this newfound wealth – what are some of the wealthiest people buying besides megayachts?

  Two buying trends this year are “trophy trees” and “enormous crystals.”  

  Mansion Global reports Michael Chen, a Los Angeles real estate developer, has bought a 150-year-old, 15-foot olive tree imported from Tuscany, which he calls the “tree of life.” The trophy tree sits in the middle of his $65 million Beverly Hills mansion.

  

  In Miami, Fernando Wong Outdoor Living Design, a company that specializes in landscaping, said the trophy tree business is booming. The wealthy are demanding nondisclosure agreements to keep their horticultural endeavors super secret. 

  Besides exotic trees worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, the rich are also furnishing their homes with giant crystals.  

  According to Los Angeles Times, wealthy buyers purchase crystals sculpted into love seats and coffee tables to furnish their homes. 

  Mineral collector Peter Megaw said the global market for high-end crystals is becoming fine art, with scarcity driving prices higher for unique pieces. 

  Work-at-home and lockdowns turbocharged the craze for self-healing crystals that also create lavish decorations. 

  The wealthy are spending $125,000 amethyst coffee table or a $333,000 peach-colored quartz the size of a laundry basket. 

  

  Here’s a $45,000 amethyst throne. 

  

  A 900-pound quartz chair. 

  

  More fine crystal pieces. 

  

  Trophy trees and crystals, two buying trends of the super-wealthy this year.  

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 22:30

• "Trust The Science", They Said…
  “Trust The Science”, They Said…

  Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

  “I’m not upset that you lied to me, I’m upset that from now on I can’t believe you.” ― Friedrich Nietzsche

  

  “I have certain rules I live by. My first rule: I don’t believe anything the government tells me.” – George Carlin

  The pronouncements from the world’s favorite science troll, who hasn’t told the truth since March 2020 when he told the world masks were useless in stopping a virus from spreading, are coming fast and furious as more and more people ignore the fear propaganda. Alpha!!! Delta!!! and now Lambda!!! We’re all going to die unless we allow Big Pharma, with no liability for killing or maiming you with their experimental gene therapy, and totalitarian politicians to inject us with a concoction which doesn’t keep you from contracting covid or spreading covid. But it may kill you, give you a dose of blood clots, or a touch of myocarditis.

  Fauci, Walensky, Biden, Pasaki and the rest of the Biden apparatchiks are liars, frauds, and fear mongering whores for Big Pharma. Fauci is the father of covid. He created it with his illegal gain of function funding, partnering with the communist government of China and is responsible for all the death and economic destruction wrought over the last eighteen months. He should be tried, convicted and executed for crimes against humanity. History should lump him with the likes of Josef Mengele and other mass murders.

  He continues to lie on a daily basis and the cucks in the corporate propaganda media never question his lies or push back in any way. They are co-conspirators in this authoritarian attempt to override the Constitution and enslave you in a pharmacological techno gulag. The merger of Big Government with Big Pharma, Big Tech, Big Finance and Big Corp endangers the rights, freedoms and liberties guaranteed to citizens under the U.S. Constitution.

  They are pushing the country towards inevitable violent conflict by using their powers of coercion to force people to inject a substance into their bodies they do not need and do not want. For what ultimate purpose, we do not know. But we do know it is not about your health or the health of others. The current fear narrative being peddled by Fauci and Biden is the dreaded Delta variant, previously known as the Indian variant. Did you ever wonder why they had to rename the Indian variant? The chart below is why.

  

  The panic porn media was running non-stop horror stories about India and the bodies piling up in the streets back in May. At that time less than 4% of the Indian population had been vaxxed. Even today it is only 7% of their 1.3 billion people. The talking heads, and Fauci, all pointed to India as a humanitarian tragedy in the making – using it as their fear tactic for getting the jab. But their narrative fell apart in a matter of weeks and you no longer hear about India on the nightly news.

  That’s because cases crashed by 90% in the two months from the peak in May. And guess what? It happened with no vaccine rollout. They did send tens of millions of doses of ivermectin out to the population. These FACTS do not support the approved narrative being spun by our contemptible corrupt leaders. This flu is seasonal. Cases, based on a flawed PCR test, are already highly questionable. And 40,000 cases per day in a country with four times the population of the U.S. is a non-event. India’s deaths peaked at about 4,000 per day in May and are now 500 per day, down 88% with virtually no one getting jabbed.

  

  How could India’s deaths per million (312) be 64% lower than the U.S. (866) when they have very few vaccinated, have a vast majority of their 1.3 billion people living in squalor, and have limited medical resources for the majority. Seems like a conundrum, and now you know why our pandemia panic patrol no longer speak about India. Just like they no longer speak about Sweden, because their no lockdown, no mask mandates, and no forced vaccination policies have worked spectacularly well, while not infringing upon the rights and freedoms of their citizens. These examples are an embarrassment to the Great Reset crowd and their agenda of controlling the masses through fear and threats.

  After the powers that be were forced to rename the Indian variant to the scarier foreboding Delta variant, it was time to launch a new fear marketing campaign in the UK, where Boris the Great fulfilled his Great Reset obligation to Schwab, Gates and the rest of the Davos elite by ramping up restrictions, lockdowns and vaccine passports. What a good little obedient puppet he has become.

  Cases, again based upon a PCR test just pulled from the market by the FDA, began to rise in early June. By mid-July they had already peaked, just as expected from a seasonal flu. They have now fallen by 50% from the peak. I bet you haven’t heard that on any propaganda spewing mainstream fake news media outlet. Twitter and Facebook would ban these facts and declare them misleading.

  

  A strange thing happened on the way to impending doom, as a teary eyed Walensky would say. Deaths with covid barely budged upward during this surge. When daily cases had reached 50,000 in January there were 1,200 deaths “with” covid per day. During this scary outbreak of the dreaded Delta variant, the average deaths per day has been 80, 93% below the January peak. This isn’t due to masks or lockdowns. The Delta variant is not more transmissible and it is far less deadly than the first strain. It’s the flu bro.

  

  You would think our “trust the science” gurus would actually observe what has actually happened in both India and the UK and give a fact based assessment to the American people. The Delta is far less lethal and nothing to be frightened about. Based on the facts, the cases will peak in early September and then fall precipitously thereafter. Delta is not scary. It’s not deadly. The cases are based upon a faulty PCR test that can’t tell the difference between the common cold, seasonal flu and covid. Real health experts would be telling people to calm down and stop worrying.

  

  The U.S. is currently averaging 100,000 cases per day, the highest since mid February. At that time 3,000 people per day were dying with covid. Currently 470 people are dying per day with covid, 84% below the mid February amount. Oh the horror!!! We already know, based on the facts, those dying are over 80 years old, morbidly obese, and/or have 5 co-morbidities. This horrific surge is nothing more than a fart in the wind. But that is not how our glorious leaders are treating this farce of a flu.

  

  This brings us to more “trusting the science”. These vaccines were hailed as the miracle to win the war against covid. Trump said so. Fauci said so. The executives at Pfizer, Moderna and J&J said so. They declared them 96% effective in keeping you from getting covid. There would just be a minuscule number of “breakthrough” cases. It’s more like a dam break of cases. They didn’t tout these drugs as reducing the symptoms of covid.

  There is no one who got the jabs who thought they would get covid after being vaxxed. Watching the cognitive dissonance being exhibited by the vaxxed is a wonder to behold. They cannot admit they were misled and bamboozled by Fauci and friends.They cannot admit they made a mistake and still don’t know the long term effects of this gene altering therapy. And this doesn’t even take in to account the 12,000 deaths, 70,000 serious injuries and 550,000 adverse reactions reported into the VAERS system from the vaccines. And these numbers are likely under-reported by a factor of at least three.

  The vaccine doesn’t keep you from catching covid, spreading covid or dying from covid. It doesn’t reduce the symptoms any more than ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine. The vaxxed can also carry a heavier viral load, making them even more dangerous. The anger which should be directed at the liars and frauds who touted this “cure” is instead being directed at those who choose to let their immune system do its job. The anger is being fomented by Biden and his acolytes blaming the current “surge” on those choosing to let their natural immunity work. More lies.

  And we have the proof. Israel, the most vaxxed country in the world, is experiencing a surge in cases among the vaxxed, while neighboring Palestine with virtually no one vaxxed is experiencing no surge. And now Israel is locking down again. Are the vaccines causing the Delta surge? You certainly won’t get an honest answer from Fauci & Pfizer. There are hundreds of billions in profits to be made. Just get that booster and all will be well.

  

  The totalitarians never let a good fake crisis go to waste. This faux flu crisis is being marketed to the hilt by those pressing their agenda of medical tyranny, backed by technological surveillance and tracking, and coordinated with mega-corporations and social media censorship police. Their agenda is deeply disturbing and Orwellian in nature. The almost hysterical lies and blather being uttered by Fauci, Walensky, their fawning media acolytes, tyrant governors, and bureaucrat government drones, clearly points toward a more nefarious goal. Nothing being implemented by the Federal government, state governments, or mega-corporations is based upon science, your health, or anyone else’s health.

  This full court press to forcibly vaccinate every person in America is nonsensical, unnecessary, unscientific, and un-Constitutional. This flu already had a 99.7% survival rate. And it is less lethal than the annual flu for anyone under 30 years old. The Delta variant is far less lethal than the original virus. But, those in power are compelled to ruin the livelihoods of anyone refusing to become the research in this experimental gene therapy scheme. The government is conspiring with corporations and social media companies to force these jabs into arms.

  The desperate nature of the authoritarian actions being implemented by the elitists running our country and their corporate co-conspirators is foretelling a much darker truth lurking below the surface. This global Ponzi scheme we call our economic and financial system is ripping apart at the seams. The powerful and wealthy oligarchs who already control the levers of power and own most of the wealth do not want to see their heaven on earth of riches evaporate like a puddle on a hot summer day. This is why they are attempting to install a command and control “build back better” Great Reset plan where they will own everything and you will own nothing,  say nothing, do as you are told, and get your yearly booster shot for the newest variant of a phantom flu.

  The globalist empire of debt is faltering under the weight of un-payable obligations and derivatives of mass destruction. How these “vaccines” play into their overall plan to retain power, control and wealth is unclear at this point, but the frantic, autocratic, and unrestrained shredding of our Constitutional rights over a flu virus should make every critical thinking American pause and ponder what comes next.

  We allowed them to shut down the country, destroy small businesses, put tens of millions out of work, forced you to wear face diapers, created drastically more dependency on government handouts, drove the national debt up by $6.5 trillion in eighteen months, and essentially handed over our entire economy to Wall Street puppets at the Federal Reserve whose sole purpose is to keep enriching bankers, billionaires, and the corporatocracy.

  They reduced the pressure for a brief time, but they learned how gullible and pliable the willfully ignorant masses were during round one of their authoritarian takeover. Round two looks to be more tyrannical and enforced by their police thugs, corporate backers, social media tyrants, and their zombie hordes of vaxxed Karens snitching on those not following the plan. Biden and his handlers are shitting on the Constitution on a daily basis and don’t believe the rule of law applies to them. They are allowing millions of illegal immigrants (many with covid), who somehow (Soros) have the money to fly to Mexico from their 3rd world shitholes, to pour over the border and be transported to swing state Democrat run urban paradises.

  If we don’t forcefully push back now, we may never be given another chance to reverse this downward spiral of a once free nation. We are crossing our Rubicon and there will be no turning back. The decisions we make individually and as a country in the next few months will determine whether we are mice or men.

  Wise men from the past knew the enemy can always be found within. We need to identify our enemy, confront them through non-compliance with their mandates, boycotting corporations supporting the regime, organizing workers to resist vaccine mandates through strikes or mass resignation,  passive resistance by throwing monkey wrenches into the gears of their financial system, and if need be exercising our 2nd Amendment rights. I am not overstating this threat, as this country is being pushed toward the brink by an enemy in plain sight.

  “The enemy is within the gates; it is with our own luxury, our own folly, our own criminality that we have to contend.” – Marcus Tullius Cicero

  

  “Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” – John Adams

  *  *  *

  The corrupt establishment will do anything to suppress sites like the Burning Platform from revealing the truth. The corporate media does this by demonetizing sites like mine by blackballing the site from advertising revenue. If you get value from this site, please keep it running with a donation.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 22:00

• Emerging Markets Hit 20 Year Low Against S&P, Waiting For A "Cathartic Event"
  Emerging Markets Hit 20 Year Low Against S&P, Waiting For A “Cathartic Event”

  The old “new normal” is firmly back in control of the market.

  As BofA CIO Michael Hartnett writes in his latest Flow Show, despite a host of stagflationary concerns about the economy and markets in the second half (laid out in his second half preview discussed here), investment grade bonds (LQD) and semiconductors (SOX) are back at all time highs, both leaders of a ”secular stagnation” bull market indicating that the Fed’s reflationary hopes are all but dead for the time being; Additionally, the Brazilian real (BRL) – which Hartnett calls the “world’s best “risk-on” indicator” – is dithering above 5.00 level despite the Brazilian Central Bank hiking 325bps in 5 months (and warning that inflation is anything bur transitory), while stealth “flight-to-quality” trades are observed so far in H2, as utilities, health care, and REITs are the best SPX performing sectors.

  Hartnett then looks at the latest “Biggest Picture” trend which shows that EM stocks are approaching a 20-year low versus S&P500…

  

  … and notes that big lows in EM normally triggered by cathartic events (LTCM, 9/11, Lehman) and while we wait for the next “cathartic” trigger, Hartnett notes that emerging markets are unambiguously where the secular value is, e.g. EM bonds cheapest relative to US high yield in 20 years (of course, China is a big factor here and following Beijing’s recent crackdown on various “non-social” industries – as defined recently by Goldman – the wait for the catalyst could prove to be a lengthy one). Hartnett concedes as much, but notes that whereas regulatory risk has hit large cap China tech (HSTECH -43% peak to trough) where over a $1 trillion in market cap has been lost, the small cap China innovation index, i.e., ChiNext (CNT) is trading to new all time highs.

  

  Hartnett then switches track to observe the performance of various “balanced” portfolios, but instead of the ubiquitous 60/40, the BofA CIO instead focuses on his favorite “25/25/25/25”, i.e., a max diversified portfolio of 25% in global equities, bonds, commodities, and cash which he has pitched for the past several years and which in 2021 is enjoying record returns, annualizing a 16% return which is the best since 1987.

  

  The bank strategist then focuses on the macro distortions that have emerged in the US economy and captured best by a chart showing payrolls (7 million below pre-covid levels) vs retail sales (which as 18% above covid).

  

  And while the market was clear to jump on Friday’s payroll as opening the gates to a Jackson Hole taper announcement, Hartnett is not so sure, noting that the Fed has made it clear they don’t see clarity on payrolls until Sept report released early-Oct.

  Additionally, the recent surge in Delta cases coupled with renewed outperformance of lockdown vs reopening stocks is also clouding the autumn outlook.

  

  Looking ahead, Hartnett lays out a trio of potentially “unanticipated” autumn events which could undo the market’s relentless meltup, including:

  • White House fails to reappoint Powell as Fed Chair;
  • escalation of US-China cold war (Covid-19 origin investigations, Biden-Xi to meet in Rome Oct 30th);
  • stagflationary resolution to US labor market conundrum.

  Putting it all together, Hartnett says that the best analog to the current market regime is the late ‘60s-early ‘70s with persistent negative real  rates, large budget deficits, populist & polarized electorates, an excessively easy & complicit Fed, which led to inflation rising to multi-year highs. Back then the value bull of 1968 (= H1’2021) was followed by volatile bear of 1969 (H2’2021).

  As such, his advice to investors: own defensive quality = good market hedge H1 (peak policy) & good macro hedge H2 (peak profits).

  One final point: in keeping with what his publication originally covered, namely market flows, Hartnett makes the following notable observations:

  • The latest week saw $24.7Bn flows to cash, $12.1Bn to bonds, $4.8Bn to stocks, and $0.7Bn to gold (the largest in 8 weeks) which alas culminated with a brutal hammering gold sustained in the aftermath of the blockbuster jobs report
  • Flows to Know: 6th week of inflows to tech ($1.2bn), 7th week of inflows to healthcare ($0.3bn), largest outflow from EM equities in 6 weeks ($1.6bn).
  • Tech & healthcare: inflows to “growth” sectors have resumed after Q2 redemptions

  

  • EM equities: similarly, slowdown in EM inflows since spring looks to be over (Chart 8).

  

  • Financials, energy, materials, value: in contrast cyclical sectors that saw big H1 inflows have seen redemptions past 6 weeks; same trend for value funds

  

  IG, HY, EM debt: inflows to credit funds (need-for-yield bid) remain steady

  

  TIPS, bank loans: inflow to TIPS rising, to bank loan funds slowing as Fed shifts back to ‘let it run hot” in recent weeks.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 21:30

• New Identity Authentication Requirement For Unemployment Spreads Across The Country
  New Identity Authentication Requirement For Unemployment Spreads Across The Country

  Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times,

  Pennsylvania now requires individuals filing for unemployment compensation to prove their identity before receiving payments.

  

  In an effort to prevent fraudulent claims which have plagued the online unemployment system, Pennsylvania has hired ID.me, a McLean, Virginia-based company, to authenticate users.

  Since 2020, some 27 states have hired ID.me for unemployment verification, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, New Jersey, New York, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wyoming.

  “We are also now under contract with an additional two states. ID.me Spokesman Nicholas Michael told The Epoch Times.

  “Our federal partners include the Department of Veterans Affairs and Social Security Administration.”

  Unemployment applicants in these states must submit to a new, more invasive level of vetting to receive payments.

  ID.me’s online authentication process begins with a request for permission to use details from the user’s credit profile and other public sources. Soon after that, the system requires users to consent to ID.me collecting their Social Security number and biometric data. The user cannot continue the process or receive unemployment without consenting.

  The fine print explains ID.me may collect facial biometrics and voiceprints.

  Users upload an image of a driver’s license or passport, and a current “selfie” image taken with their smartphone. In some cases, a video selfie is used.

  “We use these images to create a facial geometry or faceprint which we use for purposes of identity verification and to prevent the fraudulent creation of multiple accounts in a fraudulent manner,” the agreement explains.

  Users may also be required to call ID.me and leave a voice recording that is used to create a voiceprint. “We use this voiceprint for identity verification and to prevent the creation of multiple ID.me accounts in a fraudulent manner,” the agreement explains.

  Collecting Biometric Data

  ID.me stores a user’s biometric data for use up to seven and a half years after they stop using the service, the agreement says. Users may ask ID.me to delete their biometric data, but the company may decline the request in some cases.

  “ID.me will never share your biometric data with a third party except to protect you or others from identity theft,” the consent agreement says.

  However, the agreement also says ID.me can share biometric data with its clients such as the Department of Labor and Industry to process unemployment claims, plus third-party service providers and “other third parties where permitted by law, to enforce the terms, to comply with legal obligations or applicable, to respond to legal process (such as a subpoena, warrant or civil discovery request), to cooperate with law enforcement agencies concerning conduct or activity that we reasonably and in good faith believes may violate federal, state, or local law, and to prevent harm, loss or injury to others.”

  Batches of digital files containing the personal information of each person authenticated by ID.me are regularly sent to the state. The files contain an individual’s full name, email address, phone number, Social Security number, date of birth, street address, city, state, postal code, gender, and a unique identifier.

  ID.me tracks the IP address, town, and time when users interact with the company.

  Where Is the Information Going?

  “It’s overbroad and absurd considering the limited purpose the verification is supposed to further,” Jeff Schott, a labor and civil rights attorney at the Scaringi Law Firm in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, told The Epoch Times.

  “To me, it’s wrong because you are entitled to those benefits and you have to agree to their terms, which exceed what is needed for the purpose for ID verification.”

  Schott says the law firm has fielded numerous calls about ID.me from Pennsylvanians applying for unemployment. The complaints generally fall into one of two categories.

  Some are people who are not computer savvy and through the pandemic, have been laid off for the first time in their lives. They need help navigating ID.me and worry about submitting to facial recognition and handing their Social Security number over to a third-party company.

  “They want to know and where all this information is going and where it is stored,” Schott said.

  “Since COVID, people are more in tune with government intrusion in their lives, for obvious reasons.”

  Other folks are calling the law firm complaining ID.me rejected them, even though their information was legitimate.

  If there is a problem, ID.me says cases will be handled on a video conference by a “trusted referee,” but Schott said some clients have told him that the video conference never happened, others told him ID.me’s trusted referees seemed more hostile than helpful, acting as if they were speaking with a fraudster instead of helping them solve the problem.

  About 90 percent of people verify their identity through the automated process in about five minutes, Michael said. Applicants’ selfie photo or video is compared to the photo on their passport or driver’s license through facial recognition.

  “If the individual takes a blurry, or cut off image of their face three times, or uploads documents that have issues, we offer a live video chat session—similar to a Zoom call—with a live agent,” Michael said. “The individual can finish the verification process that way. No one is blocked by this step.”

  People who do not have a presence in records, are recent immigrants, or have no credit history have difficulty proving their identity online, he said.

  “ID.me is the only vendor in the country that offers identity verification through a video chat with one of our trusted referees,” Michael said.

  Pennsylvania first engaged with ID.me through an $800,000, one-year contract to authenticate Pandemic Unemployment Assistance applicants from September 2020-September 2021.

  In late July, Pennsylvania’s Department of Labor and Industry informed applicants of regular (not pandemic-related) unemployment that they are required to verify their identity through ID.me to start or continue receiving payments.

  There is likely another contract to cover this new service but the Department of Labor and Industry was unable to produce it or say how much it is paying ID.me.

  Labor and Industry Spokeswoman Sarah DeSantis told The Epoch Times ID.me is subcontracted through Geographic Solutions, the company that manages the state’s online unemployment system, which was recently updated. But Geographic Solutions spokesman Donald Silver told The Epoch Times the contract is between ID.me and the state.

  “We’ll have to defer to Pennsylvania L&I for information about the contract,” ID.me Spokesman Nicholas Michael said.

  Ultimately, neither ID.me nor the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry would provide a contract or disclose the cost of this service.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 21:00

• Does The Tuskegee Experiment Really Explain Black Vaccination Rates?
  Does The Tuskegee Experiment Really Explain Black Vaccination Rates?

  Naked Capitalism’s Yves Smith, writes that it is bizarre to see the press keep repeating the myth that the Tuskegee syphilis experiment is the big reason blacks are lagging other groups in vaccination.

  But it is also proof of how removed the press and our nominal betters are from the struggles of individuals and families at the lower end of the income spectrum.

  Many people who have gotten the Covid shots are pretty ill for a half a day to two days. Many of our readers have confirmed that happens, and blown that off as if it’s no big deal. It’s not if you can’t afford to miss any shifts, or worse, might lose your job if yo call in sick.

  To put it another way, “What about precarity don’t you understand?”

  Perhaps I am overthinking things, but I also wonder if the Tuskegee experiment rings “Bad Bubba!” bells, which makes it even more appealing to those who want to assign blame for low vaccinations to retrograde whites. Even though the Tuskegee study was a Federal initiative, run by the United States Public Health Service and the Centers for Disease Control, it was managed by the then Tuskegee Institute, and recruited poor black sharecroppers in Alabama. In other words, even if the top brass might not have been from the South, the front line staff and immediate managers were.

  Oddly, I have yet to see someone who tries assigning blame to the Tuskegee study highlight the CDC’s role, and play out a possible thought process: “The CDC was behind that atrocity. And they are headquartered in Atlanta, in the Deep South. How can we trust them?” Is it that the CDC is now “the science” and can’t be seen as responsible for past mistakes, no matter how horrific?

  Matt Breunig doesn’t get into alternative explanations but simply demonstrates that the popular account doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

  *  *  *

  By Matt Bruenig. Originally posted at his website

  Black vaccination rates lag the rest of the country, according to data from the Census Household Pulse Survey and other similar sources.

  

  One common explanation for this in the discourse is that black people are skeptical of the vaccine because of prior historical events in which they were abused and experimented upon by the US government and healthcare authorities. The main incident brought up in this explanation is the Tuskegee Experiment. In that experiment, black people with syphilis were told they were receiving drugs to treat the disease but they were actually given placebos while the researchers studied the effects of untreated syphilis.

  This theory checks off certain boxes that make it resonate well within current discourse frameworks, but it doesn’t really make a lot of sense. If the coronavirus vaccines were only being given to black people, then you could see how someone might reason that it is a trick. But they are being given to everyone, including over 100 million white people. Are we meant to think that black people who aren’t getting the vaccine believe that the government is poisoning 100 million white people because the government has a racist history of poisoning black people? The racial analysis here would tell you that there is no way the white supremacist government would do such a thing and so the vaccine must be safe!

  Perhaps more compelling than this abstract reasoning is the breakdown of the black vaccination rate by education level.

  

  As with the population in general and every other racial group, black vaccination rates climb in lockstep with educational attainment. Educational attainment of course is also a decent proxy, on average, for income, wealth, and other socioeconomic indicators.

  I would guess that awareness of the Tuskegee Experiment and black history more generally is greater among those with higher education than those with lower education. If this guess is right, then knowledge of historical racist medical abuses is actually strongly correlated with getting the vaccine.

  One of the reasons I am bringing this up because it seems to me that this just-so story about black vaccine hesitancy is actually very unhelpful when it comes to trying to getting black people and the population more generally vaccinated.

  It’s soothing to a certain mindset that is prevalent in the discourse, but it’s totally detached from reality and papers over the much more significant socioeconomic factors.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 20:00

• Did The CDC Director Just Accidentally Admit That Vaccination Passports Are Futile?
  Did The CDC Director Just Accidentally Admit That Vaccination Passports Are Futile?

  Authored by ‘Sundance’ via The Last Refuge blog,

  They are just making up narratives now, and the media are not calling them out on it….

  The Director of the CDC made an important admission during an interview today on CNN.   CDC Director Rochelle Walensky stated the vaccine does not prevent COVID-19 infection, nor does it stop the vaccinated person from transmitting the infection or the delta variant. 

  According to Director Walensky, the only benefit from the vaccine now is presumably that it reduces the severity of symptoms.

  If a vaccinated and non-vaccinated person have the same capacity to carry, shed and transmit the virus – with or without symptoms – then what difference does a vaccination passport or vaccination ID make?

  According to the CDC TODAY, both the vaxxed and non-vaxxed person walking into a restaurant, store, group, venue or workplace present the exact same risk to other people there, so how does the presentation of proof of vaccine make any difference?  

  WATCH:

  (UPDATE – Google removed the video, I replaced with Rumble)

  Additionally, her entire statement makes no sense. 

  

  There is no evidence that vaccinated asymptomatic carriers are asymptomatic because of the vaccine.  There are likely just as many asymptomatic non-vaccinated carriers.  The data shows an equally distributed infection rate regardless of vaccination rate, which is simultaneously admitted by Direcor Walensky, which, as an outcome, is an admission that undercuts the entire argument for compulsory vaccines.

  The reverse is also evident in the data.  There are just as many vaxxed carriers who are symptomatic (ie. sick), as there are un-vaxxed carriers who are symptomatic (ie. sick). The percentage of vaxxed and non-vaxxed people hospitalized it identical to the vaxxed/non-vaxxed population around the hospital.

  In regional populations with extremely high vaccination rates, the COVID infection rate continues unabated. 

  The percentage of vaccinated people hospitalized is identical to the percentage of people vaccinated in the community.

  In Gibraltar, 99% of the population vaccinated; COVID infection rate climbs.  In Iceland over 75% of population vaccinated; infection rate climbs.  Singapore and Israel show the same thing [Data Sets Here].  So what value is the vaccination passport?

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 19:00

• Activity On Dating Apps Hits Record High In July
  Activity On Dating Apps Hits Record High In July

  Activity on dating apps hit a record high in July as people who were cooped up for a year due to the virus pandemic now feel comfortable mingling with others. 

  According to Bloomberg, citing research firm Apptopia, daily active users on top ten dating apps, including Match Group Inc.’s Tinder and Bumble Inc., reached more than 15 million users.

  

  Early in the pandemic, users frowned upon dating apps for fear of meeting others who may be a carrier of the virus.

  But since more than half the country is vaccinated and life has been getting back to normal, users are online searching for their soul mate. 

  Emma-Claire Ziolkowski, a dietitian from Virginia Beach, Virginia, said she re-downloaded Tinder after she was fully vaccinated. 

  Ziolkowski said that after more than a year spent alone and working at home, an app is an easiest and safest place to search for love:

  “My favorite thing about dating apps as a whole is that you have access to people you would have never had access to.”

  More insights into dating app trends will follow next week’s quarterly report of Bumble. The dating app recently went public, taking advantage of the reopening of the economy. 

  However, the recent spread of the delta variant could be a significant challenge for online dating apps as cities and states reimpose public health guidelines. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 18:30

• After Russiagate, Why Wouldn't People Be Skeptical About COVID
  After Russiagate, Why Wouldn’t People Be Skeptical About COVID

  Authored by Caitlin Johnstone,

  You hardly ever hear about Russiagate anymore. The last time it made a blip in the radar was when disgraced Collusion author Luke Harding published a very thinly-sourced story in The Guardian claiming to have proof that Donald Trump was a Kremlin asset, but other mass media outlets barely touched it and it vanished as quickly as it came.

  

  Looking at mainstream news outlets in 2021, you’d hardly know they’d recently spent years hammering the story into public consciousness that Vladimir Putin had infiltrated the highest levels of the US government, day after day after day after day after day.

  But they did.

  Vast fortunes were raked in off the public interest generated by click-friendly stories about the latest BOMBSHELL revelation involving some peripheral member of Trump’s associates perhaps maybe having some kind of contact with a Russian national at some point. Entire careers were built on this.

  Then the Mueller investigation invalidated the entire claim by failing to indict a single American for conspiring with the Russian government, and the mass media who’d spent the previous few years bashing everyone in the face with that story just kind of slowly sidled away from it.

  And now they act like it never happened.

  The sweeping Mueller investigation ended with zero indictments of zero Americans for conspiring with Russia over the 2016 election, writes @ggreenwald. https://t.co/4KSjNegEyU #MuellerReport

  — The Intercept (@theintercept) April 18, 2019

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  Now I’m going to ask you to put yourself in the shoes of someone you might not normally be inclined to.

  Imagine you’re someone on the political right watching this whole thing unfold. Imagine that from late 2016 to mid-2019 you were watching the mass media aggressively shove this story down everyone’s throat that a US president, whom you support, is secretly working for a hostile foreign government with the goal of subverting the United States of America. The media you consume have been highlighting all the massive, glaring plot holes in this narrative the entire time, so you know it’s not true, yet you’ve still got friends, coworkers and family members who believe it is.

  Can you imagine how disgusted you’d get with the media watching this happen day after day? How outraged? How resentful? If you’re really putting yourself there, I think you probably can.

  Now imagine a year later these exact same media institutions start telling you there’s a novel coronavirus which we’re all going to have to sacrifice some personal liberties in order to stop. We might have to stay in our homes, wear a mask, get injected with new drugs we’re not sure about, possibly while watching our bank account drain and our business go under, and all these media institutions you just watched lie to everyone’s face for years on end are aggressively saying you need to do this and support this or you’re a dangerous monster whose voice should be banned from social media.

  How well do you imagine that would go over with you?

  A study of the unvaccinated in Cda, UK and US found they had “less agreeable personalities”, are less cooperative with others, more selfish, and more extroverted.

  In the vernacular, the term is “assholes”. Maybe it’s time to start treating them as such. https://t.co/TuPeZmBfxT

  — Scott Gilmore (@Scott_Gilmore) August 3, 2021

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  And yet now we’re seeing article after article after article and news segment after news segment after news segment from these very same institutions freaking out about “the unvaccinated”, a new label for a new category of human we’re all meant to have very strong opinions about. The very media institutions which actively cultivated the distrust of these populations are now whipping up public outrage at the people they alienated.

  And of course it’s not just right-wingers; people of color across the political spectrum have relatively low vaccination rates as well. What do those groups have in common? Distrust for institutions which in their experience have an extensive history of being untrustworthy. People on the left who saw through the Russiagate madness would be skeptical as well.

  The sane way to counteract the public distrust that’s been caused by generations of lies, wars and depravity would be a tremendous increase in transparency, accountability and contrition on the part of those institutions, showing the public that they have changed and are working to become more trustworthy. So naturally what we are seeing is vaccine mandates in New York City, pundits calling for forced injections, and soldiers policing the streets of Sydney.

  A study of the unvaccinated in Cda, UK and US found they had “less agreeable personalities”, are less cooperative with others, more selfish, and more extroverted.

  In the vernacular, the term is “assholes”. Maybe it’s time to start treating them as such. https://t.co/TuPeZmBfxT

  — Scott Gilmore (@Scott_Gilmore) August 3, 2021

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  The way people are acting like trust in media-sanctioned narratives should be a given after those institutions literally just discredited themselves in front of everyone is insane. You don’t have to believe anything odd about the virus or the vaccine to understand the distrust. It was entirely predictable that this trust crisis would occur, and surely there were people in positions of influence who did predict it. And now this entirely predictable thing is being used to ban people from social media, justify vaccine passports, etc. I find that immoral.

  I don’t know what’s going on with this virus; my brain just doesn’t work in a way that lends itself to science. One of the most annoying things about the indie media scene in the age of Covid has been gaining an audience because I’m good at logic and writing and then being told by lots of people “Oh you’re good at writing? Cool. Now you have to be good at science or I hate you.” People expect me to either understand things I don’t understand or pretend that I do, and maybe that’s good enough for them but it isn’t for me.

  What I do know is that things are getting increasingly ugly and authoritarian as global capitalism looks more and more like the end of a Monopoly game, and that media institutions have no business complaining that people don’t trust them after spending years actively alienating their trust. The sooner humanity wakes up from its unwholesome relationship with mental narrative, the better.

  *  *  *

  My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, following me on Facebook, Twitter, Soundcloud or YouTube, or throwing some money into my tip jar on Ko-fi, Patreon or Paypal. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. 

  Bitcoin donations:1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

  Take a second to support Caitlin Johnstone on Patreon!

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 18:00

• California Judge Rules Newsom Can Blame "Republicans And Trump Supporters" For Recall
  California Judge Rules Newsom Can Blame “Republicans And Trump Supporters” For Recall

  California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) has won the right to blame “Republicans and Trump supporters” for the Sept. 14 recall election.

  

  Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Laurie M. Earl said in a final ruling that Newsom’s proposed wording for the voter information handbook does not violate election law – echoing her prior conclusion in a tentative decision before a hearing, according to Yahoo News.

  “The Court finds there is nothing false or misleading about describing the recall effort’s leaders as Trump supporters,” wrote Earl.

  Recall leaders charged in a lawsuit that Newsom was lying in his ballot statement because not all recall supporters and candidates vying to replace Newsom were Republicans.

  During a hearing Thursday, the recall backers also claimed Newsom lied when he said they were “abusing our recall laws.”

  Earl disagreed, saying there was “an argument that this recall is an abuse of a perfectly legal process.”

  “The recall is being held less than three years after a sizable majority of California voters elected Newsom Governor,” she noted.

  Earl said that while reasonable minds may disagree on the propriety of the recall, Newsom’s statement falls within the realm of ‘legitimate political debate,’ according to the report.

  Meanwhile, a recent shock poll has Newsom losing the recall by double digits, according to SFGate.

  The poll came from Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune, and was conducted among 1,100 Californians from Aug. 2 to Aug. 4. It found that 51% of respondents were in favor of recalling Newsom, while only 40% wanted to keep him in power. The previous Survey USA/San Diego Union Tribune poll from May found 36% in favor of the recall with 47% opposed.

  Interestingly, Democrats support the recall by a 1:3 margin according to the poll, meaning that it isn’t just ‘Republicans and Trump supporters’ who want the governor out, despite who organized it.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 17:30

• Chinese City Offers $15,000 Reward For Snitching On Gatherings
  Chinese City Offers $15,000 Reward For Snitching On Gatherings

  Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times,

  An eastern city has become the first in China to offer significant financial rewards to people who report public gatherings. Authorities across the nation are scrambling to contain new outbreaks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) virus, also known as COVID-19, especially with more breakthrough cases emerging.

  

  Officials in Tai’an city, in China’s coastal Shandong Province, paid a resident $15,000 on Aug. 3. The individual reported a company group training in a hotel on July 30, according to local state media.

  Authorities said organizers didn’t report the 12-day training to the local government, and its attendees came from several cities across China. After the attendees’ tests came back negative, they were ordered back to their homes.

  It is the latest of a number of regions to introduce cash incentives as part of a recent campaign to battle the new outbreak. Authorities in cities, counties, districts, and even the lowest government level—neighborhood committees— from at least eight provinces announced financial rewards to members of the public for providing tip-offs about the CCP virus. The latest outbreak started in Nanjing city, with nine airport cleaners infected on July 20.

  A neighborhood committee in Yangzhou city announced residents could receive a $310 reward if they reported others who had traveled from infected areas or had close contact with confirmed cases. A district office in the city offered to pay people $775 for providing information, and would double the reward if the case is confirmed, according to state news outlet ThePaper.cn.

  Yangzhou, about one and a half hours drive from Nanjing, has become the latest hotspot, reporting 32 cases on Wednesday. Although this figure likely does not reflect the actual total, given that the Chinese regime is known for grossly underreporting its virus numbers, it accounted for almost half of the 73 confirmed across the country on Wednesday.

  

  Aerial view of a restricted residential area due to the CCP virus in Yangzhou, in China’s eastern Jiangsu Province, on Aug. 3, 2021. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

  Authorities attributed the outbreak in Yangzhou to a 64-year-old female citizen who failed to inform local officials after traveling back from the epicenter Nanjing on July 21. Before seeking treatment for cough and fever on July 27, she frequently visited crowded places, including entertainment centres used for playing cards and mah-jong, restaurants, and shops, according to state mouthpiece Xinhua.

  Local police have detained the woman, according to the report.

  Yangzhou authorities have also set up a special hotline for members of the public to report information related to the spread of the CCP virus.

  

  Residents line up to test for the CCP virus in Yangzhou in China’s eastern Jiangsu Province on Aug. 3, 2021. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

  Chinese commentator Li Muyang said the cash incentives indicate that authorities are under pressure to squash the CCP virus outbreak. But Li suggested officials worry more about their positions than the safety of local citizens.

  The mayor of Yangzhou city resigned on Aug. 2. The provincial governor criticized the mayor on Aug. 1 because COVID-19 positive patients were identified too late, resulting in the city’s situation becoming “complicated and serious.”

  The CCP’s top anti-corruption body punished 18 officials in Zhangjiajie city on Wednesday. Many of the latest cases emerging nationwide are related to a performance held in this popular tourist destination on July 22. Authorities are now trying to track down over 2,000 people who attended it.

  Breakthrough Cases

  Shanghai health officials reported on Aug. 3 that an inoculated airport worker had returned a positive test result of the CCP virus. The head of the Shanghai panel overseeing the treatment of COVID-19, Zhang Wenhong, confirmed the infected worker had been vaccinated.

  “The staff had received vaccines, of course, because the high-risk group must be vaccinated according to the vaccination rules,” Zhang said at a press conference on Tuesday. He added that 85 percent of the adult population in Shanghai, the largest city in China, had been vaccinated, and all airport workers were inoculated.

  Gene sequencing results show a high match of the Delta variant, but it is not related to the new cases in Nanjing, authorities said on Wednesday.

  Shanghai had tested over 68,000 people related to the case on Aug. 4, Shanghai health officials said.

  

  Staff members checking a unit at a temporary “Fire Eye” laboratory used for COVID-19 testing at an exhibition center in Nanjing in China’s eastern Jiangsu Province on July 28, 2021. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

  China’s recent infections stemming from the Nanjing Lukou International Airport have hit 17 of all 31 provinces. Nanjing’s health authorities admitted on July 22 that almost all of the infected workers had received vaccines, except for one person under 18 years old.

  In another coastal city, Xiamen, next to the Taiwan Strait, an airport worker, and his three family members were confirmed to be infected with the CCP virus on July 30. The local authorities did not mention whether they had received Chinese vaccines, but airport workers are listed as a high-risk group on China’s vaccination priority list.

  Xiamen city has completed 93 percent of the second round of mass testing, collecting over 420,000 samples as of Aug. 3, state media ChinaDaily reported.

  Mass Testing Relaunched

  In response to the rising number of breakthrough cases, the Chinese regime has doubled down on its containment approach with mass testing and strict lockdowns.

  

  Residents line up to test for the CCP virus in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei Province on Aug. 3, 2021. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

  Zhuhai, a city neighboring Macao, announced the first round of mass testing of 2 million people on the evening of Aug. 4.

  Wuhan city of Hubei Province, where COVID-19 was first identified in late 2019, started to test its 13.5 million people on Tuesday. A “state of emergency” status has been declared in Hubei, resulting in provincial authorities launching strict measures to battle the spike in cases of the CCP virus, which prompted citizens to raid supermarkets for food supplies.

  

  Empty shelves at a supermarket in Wuhan, as people stock up on items, in China’s central Hubei Province, on Aug. 2, 2021. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

  The recent flood-stricken Zhengzhou planned to complete the second round of mass testing of its 12.6 million residents on Aug. 6, state-back news agency Xinhua said.

  In capital Beijing, the CCP has sealed off residential compounds on Wednesday, where the three new confirmed cases live. A resident surnamed Li confirmed to The Epoch Times on Wednesday that they are not allowed to go out and were waiting to receive the nucleic acid test.

  Meanwhile, authorities of all 31 provinces have urged people to avoid travel and gatherings while many domestic flights, ships, and trains have been canceled. State media reported that the Chinese regime tightened the border controls, suspending the issuing of entry and exit documents for non-essential, non-emergency travel.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 17:00

• Facing Fraud Charges For Lying About "Nearly All Aspects" Of Nikola, Trevor Milton Hires Elon Musk's Lawyers
  Facing Fraud Charges For Lying About “Nearly All Aspects” Of Nikola, Trevor Milton Hires Elon Musk’s Lawyers

  Honestly, you can’t make this stuff up. Nikola’s Elon-Musk-Wannabe-Founder, Trevor Milton – who now has plead not guilty to, and stands accused of, three counts of fraud for lying about…well, everything…has turned to Elon Musk’s lawyers for help. 

  Milton has retained Terence Healy, who represented Musk when the SEC claimed he had committed securities fraud by faking an $80 billion buyout offer for Tesla, mid-day during a trading day. Healy was joined by Brad Bondi, who Milton has also hired, and was able to negotiate a settlement where Musk stepped down as Tesla’s chairman. 

  Milton has also hired Marc Mukasey, who is advising President Trump on the criminal case brought against his company by Manhattan’s DA, Cyrus Vance, according to Bloomberg. 

  Recall, Milton was charged with three counts of fraud just days ago. CNBC reported that Milton was charged with making false claims regarding “nearly all aspects of the business” – something Elon Musk’s lawyers should have extensive experience in dealing with…

  

  “Prosecutors say that when Milton unveiled their tractor trailer truck it had to be plugged into the wall, the headlamps were activated by remote by a staffer, and air had to be pumped in because there was a slow leak in the air lines of the truck,” the report continued.

  “And yes, prosecutors do say part of Milton’s conduct was video of the Nikola truck in the Super Bowl ad was not in fact of a working truck but was towed to the top of a hill. Brakes were released and it rolled downhill.”

  An SEC complaint filed last week also revealed that footage of the truck “had been sped up two-to-three times” and that the video was “ultimately approved” by Milton.

  CNBC’s Phil LeBeau reported last week:  “All of this started initially with Hindenburg Research saying ‘Hey look, a lot of the comments and claims that were made by Trevor Milton and Nikola regarding the ability of their semis to power themselves, videos that were shot, that they’re not accurate’. Ultimately, Trevor Milton was bounced out of the job at Nikola.”

  The DOJ complaint against Milton said he “repeatedly made false and misleading statements about core aspects of Nikola’s products, technological advancements, and commercial prospects” including

  • (a) Falsely claiming that Nikola’s first semi-truck prototype, the Nikola One, could be driven under its own power, and using a misleading video to create the false impression that the Nikola One was, in fact, driving under its own power
  • (b) Falsely claiming that Nikola was producing hydrogen, that it was doing so at a cost that was four times less than the prevailing market rates, and that it had obtained electricity at costs that made hydrogen production profitable
  • (c) Falsely claiming that Nikola had significantly developed or already completed a prototype of an electric pickup truck, the Badger, and that this vehicle used primarily Nikola’s proprietary components
  • (d) Falsely claiming that Nikola had obtained “billions and billions and billions and billions” of dollars of committed truck orders
  • (e) Falsely claiming that Nikola had developed a “game-changing” battery technology and that Nikola was manufacturing and developing multiple key vehicle components “in-house”; and
  • (f) Falsely claiming that the total cost of ownership of Nikola’s trucks was 20-30 percent below that of diesel vehicles.

  The complaint also says that Milton would regularly take action to try and stop declines in Nikola’s share price Elon . It reads: 

  “On days when Nikola’s stock price declined, Milton regularly attempted to direct Nikola’s senior executives to take actions to stop the price decline. Senior executives received frantic phone calls or text messages from Milton on such days in which he urged the executives to “do something.” Milton also spoke of needing to put out “good news” or some kind of announcement “to get people excited” as a way to counteract price declines or maintain support for the stock price.”

  The complaint also says that “Milton tracked the daily number of new Robinhood users who held Nikola stock” and apparently was excited that retail bagholders stockholders were buying the stock:

  The senior executive responded, in part, by expressing his amazement at how many calls he received “from retail investors today that have no clue about Nikola, other than their friends told them to buy. A lot of hype out there with retail investors,” to which Milton replied: “That’s how you build a foundation. Love it.”

  Milton also misled the public about the company’s Badger pickup truck, the SEC alleged, claiming the pickup was only a “CGI rendering” and nothing more:

  SEC: “Milton’s unveiling of the Badger was straight out of his Nikola One playbook. Milton continued his pattern of touting capabilities of vehicles that [were] not functioning & did not exist beyond a CGI rendering of an illustration created by a employee many months before.”

  — Quoth the Raven (@QTRResearch) July 29, 2021

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  You can read the full complaint here:

  Update: The SEC just filed parallel charges against Trevor Milton alleging he “engaged in a fraudulent scheme to deceive retail investors” and used his social media to “flood the market with false and misleading information about Nikola”.https://t.co/1XMpaXPHA1 $NKLA

  — Hindenburg Research (@HindenburgRes) July 29, 2021

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  Milton pleaded not guilty and was ultimately freed on a $100 million bond,” according to FreightWaves. 

  The report noted that bail was secured by two properties in Utah owned by Milton, “one worth $36 million, the other worth $4 million.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 16:30

• FBI Officials "Widely Ignored" Rules In 2016, With Dozens In Contact With Reporters: Watchdog
  FBI Officials “Widely Ignored” Rules In 2016, With Dozens In Contact With Reporters: Watchdog

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  FBI policy strictly limiting which employees can speak to reporters was “widely ignored” in 2016, with over 50 officials having contact that year with one or more reporters using government-issued devices, a watchdog found.

  

  The Department of Justice’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) probed allegations that FBI employees improperly disclosed non-public information in 2016 before the presidential election in violation of bureau rules.

  A review of FBI records and a forensic examination of FBI devices found that 52 employees had contact in April and May 2016 with reporters who wrote stories using the information. The investigation also found 33 FBI employees had contact with the reporters in October 2016.

  Staffers at the OIG’s office interviewed 56 current and former FBI employees who were identified as having contact with reporters in 2016. Nearly all of them acknowledged the contacts but denied providing non-public information. Many also claimed they were authorized to be in touch with the media, either by FBI policy or by a supervisory official.

  There could well be more employees who were in touch with reporters using their personal devices or face-to-face, the OIG said in the report on its investigation (pdf) released this week.

  The probe was hampered by what the FBI described as a gap in its collection of text messages from bureau-issued devices for four of the people in contact with the media. The OIG asked for the government-issued phones to fill the gap, but the FBI couldn’t locate the devices that the employees were using in 2016.

  Additionally, the large number of employees in touch with reporters made pinpointing the source of the leaks difficult.

  The OIG was unable to figure out which agents or officials were the source of leaks.

  However, it was able to confirm that six employees at the FBI’s headquarters in Washington were not authorized by policy to have contact with the media and referred those to the bureau to determine if the conduct warrants disciplinary action.

  

  FBI Director Christopher Wray arrives to testify before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 2, 2021. (Mandel Ngan/Pool via Reuters)

  The same watchdog previously found misconduct by three senior FBI officials for “unethical interactions with reporters.” One accepted sporting tickets from a reporter and lied to OIG investigators about paying for them, a second accepted a ticket valued at $225 to a media-sponsored dinner, and a third received “items of value” from reporters.

  “The misconduct by these three senior officials, and the substantial media contacts identified by the OIG involving numerous other FBI employees, evidenced a cultural attitude at the FBI that was far too permissive of unauthorized media contacts in 2016,” the watchdog said.

  That culture reached the top of the bureau. Former Director James Comey leaked to his attorneys classified information, some of which later appeared in the media.

  The FBI declined to comment on the new report. In a letter to the OIG, Douglas Leff, the FBI’s assistant director, said the bureau has strengthened procedures guiding media contacts. For instance, the bureau has updated its training on media policy.

  There is no indication that any of the employees who broke policies were punished in any way.

  The FBI decided in 2018 that the penalties for violations of the rules are sufficient to deter unauthorized contact with the media, improper acceptance of gifts, and other misconduct.

  “That’s what’s noticeably missing to me—you’re never going to change the culture of unlawful conduct until you actually start to enforce the rules,” Timothy Parlatore, a lawyer representing former Trump campaign associate Carter Page, who the FBI illegally surveilled, told The Epoch Times.

  “And the reality is you have that all the way to the top, you have Jim Comey himself who’s doing that stuff. So if you don’t hold people accountable, how is anything ever gonna change? Otherwise it’s just lip service,” added Parlatore, who is involved in ongoing litigation with the FBI over Page’s case.

  The OIG found found that agents assigned to the case made “at least 17 significant errors or omissions.” 

  One FBI lawyer, Kevin Clinesmith, pleaded guilty to manipulating an email from saying Page was a CIA asset to saying he was not, and sending it along to be used to bolster the case to get secretive warrants to spy on Page. Clinesmith was sentenced to probation.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 16:00

• Wuhan's 'Bat Lady' Warns Of Coming Covid-19 Mutants
  Wuhan’s ‘Bat Lady’ Warns Of Coming Covid-19 Mutants

  Of all the people on the planet who should probably take a pass on weighing in over the future of Covid-19, the woman suspected of either creating it and/or releasing it is probably at the top of the list.

  Yet, that’s what just happened.

  

  According to Chinese state media cited by the South China Morning Post, top CCP virologist Shi Zhengli of the Wuhan Institute of Virology – also known as “Bat Lady” – says the virus will continue to mutate, and we must prepare to coexist with it.

  “As the number of infected cases has just become too big, this allowed the novel coronavirus more opportunities to mutate and select. New variants will continue to emerge,” said Shi, whose lab was working with a US-Funded nonprofit to make bat coronaviruses more infectious to humans.

  

  Fear porn or legitimate concern?

  Aside from the obvious value in having ‘Wuhan’s Bat Lady™’ opine on emerging strains of the virus she’s an expert in – note that she doesn’t discuss how much more or less deadly new strains could be.

  For example, there’s no evidence that the Delta strain – while much more virulent than the original Alpha strain of Covid-19, is any deadlier.

  “There’s no evidence that it’s more deadly,” said Dr. Larry Corey, who is coordinating all of the COVID-19 vaccine research in the U.S (via King5). “There is evidence that it’s more infectious and more infectious to others, i.e., more transmissible. But [is it] actually more severe? There’s really not good hard evidence of that.”

  “Becoming more transmissible and less lethal are absolutely what’s best for the pathogen,” said Troy Day, a professor of mathematics and biology at Queen’s University in Canada, who has studied how infectious diseases – including coronaviruses – evolve (via AP).

  That said, sometimes viruses evolve to become more deadly.

  “…in many instances is never possible, to be more transmissible and also less lethal,” Day added – noting that there are documented cases of animal viruses which have evolved to become more lethal over time.

  Some examples of viruses that became more deadly over time include those that developed drug resistant variants, and animal viruses such as bird flu, which were harmless to humans initially but then mutated to become capable of killing people, according to Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Health Security.

  “Flu viruses have developed resistance to certain antivirals that make them more difficult to treat, and therefore make them more deadly,” said Adalja, noting that this has happened with HIV and certain strains of Hepatitis C.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 15:40

• One Man Killed After Homeless Crowd Attacks Couple At Seattle Encampment
  One Man Killed After Homeless Crowd Attacks Couple At Seattle Encampment

  A man was killed by an “angry group” of homeless people in Seattle after venturing to their encampment to retrieve items stolen from him during a burglary.

  Seattle police responded to a hit and run call on July 27 “at a large tent encampment at Dexter Avenue North and Mercer Street,” according to KIRO 7 News.

  A couple had driven to the South Lake Union homeless encampment in hopes of finding items stolen from them when their car was burglarized. The driver told police they were able to locate his shoes and a Bluetooth speaker that belonged to him. They had their 2 year old son in a car seat with them. 

  The couple was “immediately attacked by several people in the group,” according to the police. Nearby surveillance footage showed the driver being hit in the back with a 5 foot wooden pole while another man “smashed the windows of the car with a machete”.

  

  The report says that additional people joined with rocks and sticks and that a woman began fighting with the female passenger in the car.

  The driver desperately tried to get away and wound up speeding through the crowd, killing a man who was part of the group attacking the car.

  One man who attacked the car, Mario Miller, is a 12 time felon in Washington and California. Another, John Rosser IV, was a 9 time felon.

  A nearby business owner said: “It was a car being attacked. Being surrounded by people from this encampment. And they were bashing the car to pieces with bars, sticks, whatever they had. Then the car made a run for it to break through this crowd. One of the guys who was surrounding the car got thrown up into the air and then run over by this vehicle.”

  He continued: “Since Denny Park (encampment) closed down, these are the worst of these types of people. It’s almost the center of crime here.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 15:30

• White House Press Secretary: "We're Not Going To Lock Down Our Economy Or Our Schools"
  White House Press Secretary: “We’re Not Going To Lock Down Our Economy Or Our Schools”

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  The U.S. economy isn’t going to be locked down, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Friday.

  “This is not March 2020 or even January 2021. We’re not going to lock down our economy or our schools because our country’s in a much stronger place than when we took office,” Psaki told reporters in Washington.

  She credited President Joe Biden’s “leadership in vaccinating American people and getting economic relief to those who need it.”

  More mixed messaging: Despite saying the Biden White House will be led by science and whatever health experts tell them to do, Psaki insists that “[w]e’re not going to lock down our economy or schools because our country is in a much stronger place.” pic.twitter.com/zJhktwYCJ5

  — Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) August 6, 2021

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  COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have increased across the country in recent weeks, a rise officials have attributed to the Delta variant of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which causes COVID-19.

  While some teachers unions have recently called for all-virtual classes to be held at the beginning of the upcoming school year, and a number of states and counties have re-imposed mask mandates and put into place vaccine verification requirements, the United States isn’t poised to go into the lockdown it did last year, Psaki said.

  “We are not going back. We are not turning back the clock,” she said.

  The U.S. government has been preparing for the possibility of the virus evolving and becoming more difficult to deal with.

  “We’ve been preparing, like boys scouts and girl scouts, for this moment and the potential that there would be ups and downs in our recovery, there would be ups and downs as we fight the virus, and that’s why a number of programs were designed to extend for several months beyond this summer,” Psaki told reporters.

  The remarks contrasted with Psaki deferring to states in a briefing last month when asked if the White House would attempt to reimpose harsh restrictions due to the pandemic.

  But she said Biden would support states if they went into lockdown again.

  Psaki’s new message echoed one offered by Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top medical adviser to Biden, over the weekend.

  Fauci said Sunday on ABC that things will get worse due to the Delta variant.

  But, he added, “I don’t think we’re going to see lockdowns.”

  “I think we have enough of the percentage of people in the country, not enough to crush the outbreak, but I believe enough to not allow us to get into the situation we were in last winter,” he said, referring to the number of people who have been vaccinated against the CCP virus.

  Earlier Friday, Biden touted statistics saying over 70 percent of adults 18 or older have gotten at least one COVID-19 dose.

  The vaccines were developed during the Trump administration but the effort to vaccinate Americans ramped up once Biden took office.

  Biden also warned of the Delta variant, urging people to get vaccinated to protect themselves against it, but said the economic toll would not be as bad this time around as last year, when millions of people lost their jobs amid the lockdowns.

  “America can beat the Delta variant just as we beat the original COVID-19,” he said in remarks made in Washington.

  “We can do this. So wear a mask when recommended. Get vaccinated, today. All of that will save lives and it means we are not going to have the same kind of economic damage we have seen when COVID-19 began.”

  Schools have the resources to safely reopen, according to the president.

  Biden later hinted at new rules under consideration, after requiring federal workers to show proof of vaccination or wear masks and socially distance while at work.

  “There will be more to come in the days ahead,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 15:00

• "One Step Closer To Dictatorship": Joe Rogan Slams Vaccine Passports, Warns Vax May Cause 'Virulent Mutations'
  “One Step Closer To Dictatorship”: Joe Rogan Slams Vaccine Passports, Warns Vax May Cause ‘Virulent Mutations’

  Joe Rogan raised eyebrows during a Friday episode of his podcast, where he railed against vaccine passports and suggested that the vaccine may in fact lead to vax-resistant SARS-CoV-2 mutations.

  Now you have a mini dictator. You have one step away from a king. One step closer. You’re moving one step closer to dictatorship. That’s what the f**k is happening. That’s what’s going to happen with the vaccine passport. That’s what’s going to happen if they close borders. You can’t enter New York City unless you have your papers! You can’t go here unless you have that! You can’t get on a plane unless you do what I say.

  Watch:

  Joe Rogan on Vaccine Passports 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/58leIBUuFp

  — Jay (@investjay_) August 6, 2021

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  Rogan – who acknowledge that he’s not a doctor or an anti-vaxx person, says that concerned doctors have been anonymously sending him studies – including one which asserts that an imperfect vaccine can lead to ‘highly virulent pathogens,’ and that ‘vaccines that keep the host alive but still allow transmission can thus allow virulent strains to circulate in a population.’

  “The very sort of environment that we’re creating by having so many people vaccinated with a vaccine that doesn’t kill off the virus, it actually can lead to a more potent virus. Try finding that story anywhere,” said Rogan, who was referring to a peer-reviewed paper published in 2015, in which its authors – from Penn State and the Pirbright Institute concluded that “anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.“

  People are trying to cancel Joe Rogan because of this video where he cites a scientific study proving lab rats are more at risk than those who think for themselves. They are losing the narrative.
  pic.twitter.com/hECK3lsGze

  — Carlos Del Valle 🇺🇸⚔️ (@cdelvallejr) August 7, 2021

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  Watch the whole segment below:

  Meanwhile, mRNA pioneer Dr. Robert malone points out that if 95% of severe patients in Israel were indeed vaccinated, and 85-90% of hospitalizations are among the truly vaccinated, it could suggest Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) is occurring, in which antibodies generated during an immune response can bind to a pathogen, but are unable to prevent infection – instead acting as a Trojan Horse.

  If this holds true and is verified, this is looking more and more like ADE

  — Robert W Malone, MD (@RWMaloneMD) August 5, 2021

  Rogan’s comments drew immediate rebuke from the usual suspects:

  And then finally that it’s totalitarian if people have to show a vax card to go to a public gym, and that instead of doing this the government should be telling people to lose weight. Incredible.

  — Jake Flores (@feraljokes) August 6, 2021

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  The fact that @Spotify continues to platform Joe Rogan in the face of a pandemic, despite his repeated use of their platform and money to spread dangerous disinformation, is unacceptable.

  I think it’s finally time to cancel my Spotify account. https://t.co/hLqSNQTPwn

  — Kendall Brown (@kendallybrown) August 7, 2021

  Rogan supporters showed up to defend the host:

  I’ll never understand the people who openly support more government control. Give us guidelines and allow us to have the freedom to decide for ourselves. That’s how America works.

  — Connor Earl (@ConEarl) August 7, 2021

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  I love that all Twitter criticism of Joe Rogan boils down to jealous whining about the “responsibility of his reach”

  He has that reach BECAUSE he speaks his mind.

  If you think your personal “platform” includes responsibility for your listeners, that’s called a messiah complex.

  — Josh Denny (@JoshDenny) August 7, 2021

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/07/2021 – 14:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Escobar: Iran Embraces Its Eurasian Future
  Escobar: Iran Embraces Its Eurasian Future

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

  New Iranian leader expected to shift emphasis from the West to Global South and neighboring countries including China and Russia…

  

  Ebrahim Raisi’s election as Iranian president was marred by a low turnout and the banning of moderate opponents. Photo: AFP

  Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi was sworn in as the 8th president of Iran this Thursday at the Majlis (Parliament), two days after being formally endorsed by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Khamenei.

  Representatives of the UN secretary-general; OPEC; the EU; the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU); the Inter-Islamic Union; and quite a few heads of state and Foreign Ministers were at the Majlis, including Iraq President Barham Salih and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.

  The Islamic Republic of Iran now enters a new era in more ways than one. Khamenei himself outlined its contours in a short, sharp speech, ‘The Experience of Trusting the US’.

  Khamenei’s strategic analysis, conveyed even before the final result of the JCPOA negotiations in Vienna in 2015, which I covered in my Asia Times ebook Persian Miniatures , turned out to be premonitory: “During the negotiations I repeatedly said they don’t uphold their promises.” So, in the end, “the experience tells us this is a deadly poison for us.” During the Rouhani administration, Khamenei adds, “it became clear that trusting the West doesn’t work”.

  With perfect timing, a new, six-volume book, Sealed Secret, co-written by outgoing Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and two top JCPOA negotiators, Ali Akbar Salehi and Seyed Abbas Araghchi (who’s still involved in the current, stalled Vienna debate) will be published this week, for the moment only in Farsi.

  Professor Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran summed up for me the road map ahead: “Iran’s foreign policy decisions are pretty clear. Iran will be putting less emphasis on Western nations, especially European, and more emphasis on the Global South, the East, neighboring countries, and of course that will include China and Russia. That doesn’t mean the Iranians are going to ignore Europe altogether, if they decide to return to the JCPOA. The Iranians would accept if they abide by their obligations. So far, we have seen no sign of that whatsoever.”

  Marandi could not help referring to Khamenei’s speech: “It’s pretty clear; he’s saying, ‘we don’t trust the West, these last 8 years showed that’, he’s saying the next administration should learn from the experience of these 8 years.”

  

  Outgoing president Hassan Rouhani (L) and Iran’s newly inaugurated President Ebrahim Raisi arriving for the handover ceremony in Tehran, August 3, 2021. -Photo: AFP / Iranian Presidency

  Yet the main challenge for Raisi will not be foreign policy, but the domestic framework, with sanctions still biting hard: “With regard to economic policy, it will be tilting more towards social justice and turning away from neoliberalism, expanding the safety net for the disenfranchised and the vulnerable.”

  It’s quite intriguing to compare Marandi with the views of a seasoned Iranian diplomat who prefers to remain anonymous, and very well positioned as an observer of the domestic conflict:

  “During Rouhani’s 8 years, contrary to the Supreme Leader’s advice, the government spent lots of time on negotiations, and they have not been investing on internal potential. Anyhow the 8 years are now finished, and contrary to Rouhani’s promises we currently have Iran’s worst economic and financial record in 50 years.”

  The diplomat is adamant on “the importance of paying attention to our internal capacities and abilities, while having powerful economic relations with our neighbors as well as Russia, China, Latin America, South Africa as well as maintaining mutual respectable ties with Europeans and the US government, if it changes its behavior and accepts Iran as it is and not always trying to overthrow the Iranian state and harm its people by any possible means.”

  Iranians are heirs to a tradition of at least 2,500 years of fine diplomacy. So once again our interlocutor had to stress, “the Supreme Leader has never, ever said or believed we should cut our relations with Europeans. Quite the opposite: he deeply believes in the notion of ‘dynamic diplomacy’, even concerning the US; he said multiple times we have no problem with the US if they deal with us with respect.”

  And now, let’s time travel

  There are no illusions in Tehran that Iran under Raisi, much more than under Rouhani, will remain the target of multiple “maximum pressure” and/or Hybrid War tactics deployed by Washington, Tel Aviv and NATOstan, crude false flags included, with the whole combo celebrated by US Think Tankland’s analyses penned by “experts” in Beltway cubicles.

  All that is irrelevant in terms of what really matters ahead in the Southwest Asia chessboard.

  The late, great René Grousset, in his 1951 classic L’Empire des Steppes, has pointed out “how Iran, renewing itself for fifty centuries”, has “always given proof of astonishing continuity.” It was because of this strength that Iranian civilization, as much as Chinese civilization, has assimilated all foreigners that conquered is soil, from Seljuks to Mongols: “Every time, because of the radiance of its culture, Iranism reappeared with renewed vitality, on the road to a new renaissance.”

  The possibility of a “new renaissance”, now, implies a step beyond the “neither East or West” first conceptualized by Ayatollah Khomeini: it’s rather a back to the (Eurasian) roots, Iran reviving its past to tackle the new, multipolar, future.

  The political heart of Iran lies in the sophisticated urban organization of the northern plateau, the result of a rolling, pluri-millennial process. All along Grousset’s “fifty centuries”, the plateau has been the house of Iranian culture and the stable heart of the state.

  Around this central space there are plenty of territories historically and linguistically linked to Persia and Iran: in Eastern Anatolia, in Central Asia and Afghanistan, in the Caucasus, in Western Pakistan. Then there are Shi’ite territories of other ethnic groups, mostly Arab, in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah), Yemen (the Zaidites) and the Persian Gulf (Bahrain, the Shi’ites in Hasa in Saudi Arabia).

  

  A handout picture provided by the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on January 8, 2021 shows him delivering a televised speech on the occasion of the 43rd anniversary of 1978 revolt in Qom which ignited the Iranian Revolution. Photo: AFP via KHAMENEI.IR

  This is the Shi’ite arc – evolving in a complex Iranization process that is foremost political and religious, and not cultural and linguistic. Outside of Iran, I have seen in my travels how Arab Shi’ites in Iraq, Lebanon and the Gulf, Dari/Farsi Shi’ites in Afghanistan, those of Pakistan and India, and Turcophone Shi’ites in Azerbaijan look up towards political Iran.

  So Iran’s large zone of influence relies mostly on Shi’ism, and not on Islamic radicalism or the Persian language. It’s Shi’ism that allows political power in Iran to keep a Eurasian dimension – from Lebanon to Afghanistan and Central Asia – and that reflects once again Grousset’s “continuity” when he refers to Persian/Iranian history.

  From Ancient History to the medieval era, it was always out of imperial projects, born in Southwest Asia and /or the Mediterranean basin, that came the drive to attempt the creation of a Eurasian territory.

  The Persians, who were halfway between Mediterranean Europe and Central Asia, were the first who tried to build a Eurasian empire from Asia to the Mediterranean, but they were halted in their expansion towards Europe by the Greeks in the 5th century B.C.

  Then it was up to Alexander The Great, in pure badass blitzkrieg mode, to venture all the way to Central Asia and India, de facto founding the first Eurasian empire. Which happened to materialize, to a large extent, the Persian empire.

  Then something even more extraordinary happened: the simultaneous presence of the Parthian and Kushan empires between the Roman Empire and the Han Empire during the first two centuries of the first millennium.

  It was this interaction that first allowed commercial and cultural trade and connectivity between the two extremities of Eurasia, between the Romans and the Han Chinese.

  Yet the largest Eurasian territorial space, founded between the 7th and 10th centuries, following the Arab conquests, were the Umayyad and Abbasid Caliphates. Islam was at the heart of these Arab conquests, remixing previous imperial compositions, from Mesopotamia to the Persians, Greeks and Romans.

  Historically, that was the first truly Eurasian economic, cultural and political arc, from the 8th to the 11th century, before Genghis Khan monopolized The Big Picture.

  All that is very much alive in the collective unconscious of Iranians and Chinese. That’s why the China-Iran strategic partnership deal is much more than a mere $400 billion economic arrangement. It’s a graphic manifestation of what the revival of the Silk Roads is aiming at. And it looks like Khamenei had already seen which way the (desert) wind was blowing years before the fact.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 23:40

• "It's Magical Thinking" – Most Law Degrees Are No Longer Worth The Tuition
  “It’s Magical Thinking” – Most Law Degrees Are No Longer Worth The Tuition

  A few weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal published a report about overpriced masters’ degree programs offered by Ivy League Universities and other top-ranked private colleges that often left graduates “financially hobbled for life”. The story appeared to resonate, and was one of the most popular stories on the WSJ website for days after its publication, while sparking discussion on social media, as many chimed in with similar personal experiences.

  Schools like Columbia (one of the worst offenders, according to WSJ) have been churning out MFAs and Masters in Fine Arts degrees at a surprisingly rapid pace given the paucity of well-paying jobs in those fields. Ultimately, the story showed the government was partly culpable, as no-limit loans for masters’ degrees helped create the incentives for schools to make useless masters’ degrees part of the higher education boom.

  One student, who earned a Masters in Fine Arts from Columbia in 2018, described having “2 a.m. panic attacks where you’re thinking, ‘How the hell am I going to pay this off?'” While we sympathize with the student, we can’t help but wonder what was going through his mind when he signed up for the program. In many cases, the classes are stocked with the children of wealthy parents, who happily foot their rent and tuition (while letting them carrying around daddy’s credit card).

  

  Of course, it’s one think to go broke after taking out a quarter of a million dollars in loans for your MFA. It’s quite another when the ‘worthless degree’ you shelled out for is a law degree, or an MBA. At least the students who enrolled in those programs had a reasonable expectation that they might find work in their chosen field after graduation.

  But as the old saying goes, “lawyers are a dime a dozen”, and for students of non-target law schools, the time has come to ask: was this degree really worth it?

  As WSJ begins, “law school was once considered a surefire ticket to a comfortable life. Years of tuition increases have made it a fast way to get buried in debt.” One professor quoted in the story said law schools “foster this kind of cruel optimism” in students, letting them think six figure salaries are attainable when in reality, those high-paying jobs are largely reserved for students at only the top-ranked law schools. Law schools encourage a kind of ‘magical thinking’ to keep the lights on.”

  We suspect the situation is probably similar for students who graduate from non-target MBA programs: stories abound of students shelling out a quarter of a million dollars to get degrees at Fordham, or even NYU, and coming out making less than many graduates of top ranked schools who have only undergraduate degrees.

  One of the schools featured in the WSJ report was the Unversity of Miami Law School, once of the most expensive in the country. Federal data show the value of law degrees from non-elite schools has fallen substantially. Salaries haven’t kept pace with inflation over the past 20 years, while tuition has soared. A thre-year JD program including living expenses, costs more than $250K now.

  

  Source: WSJ

  Meanwhile, law school graduates earn a median $72.5K the year after graduation, according to the National Association for Law Placement. That means half of them earn less than that.

  The end result of all this is that ‘graduate degree debt’ has emerged as a trouble spot in the modern economy.

  In fact, the only way to practically guarantee that law school will pay off is by attending one of the country’s top law schools. Out of roughly 200 law programs, only a dozen of the country’s top schools leave students earning salaries two years after graduation.

  At UMiami’s law school, tuition and fees have risen by 43%, to $57K for the coming school year, according to the ABA. That’s more than double the rate of inflation. The result is that students graduate and can only afford the minimum payment on their loans (unless they have help from parents). For those who don’t, they’re essentially condemned to decades of having their income garnished by a debt that will have swollen by more than 100% over the duration of the loan.

  Laura Cordell, a 2019 graduate, said she chose Miami for the prestige, particularly within Florida. “You go to any courthouse in Miami and the judge went to UM, the judge is a teacher at UM, there’s some sort of connection to UM,” she said.

  “When I was looking for law schools, I wasn’t looking at price as much as what would be good for my career,” said Ms. Cordell, 30 years old, who said she turned down another school that offered her a large scholarship. “I didn’t have an understanding of the gravity of the amount I was borrowing.”

  Ms. Cordell owes $334,000 in federal loans for her time at Miami. She now makes an $80,000 base salary, with a bonus of about $12,000, working at a firm that specializes in insurance. Because her debt load is so high, she said, she can’t afford more than the minimum payment on an income-driven plan, which sets her monthly payments according to her income.

  Why is that UMiami can get away with raising tuition, even though wages for its graduates are stagnating? The answer is government-backed loans: Schools know graduates can tap the government’s Grad Plus loan program, which permits borrowing for whatever the cost of tuition, fees plus living expenses. It’s still the fastest growing federal student loan program, even as law school enrollment dropped substantially after the financial crisis.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 23:20

• Larry Sanger: The Astonishing Hubris Of A Global Experimental Vaccine
  Larry Sanger: The Astonishing Hubris Of A Global Experimental Vaccine

  Authored by Wikipedia Co-Founder Larry Sanger via larrysanger.org (emphasis ours),

  It is an objective, indisputable fact: never in the history of the world has there been a global push to administer an experimental medicine to all of humanity, billions of us, at the same time.

  I want you to stop and reflect on that. Imagine the hubris it required both to carry out this plan and to propagandize the world to carry it out.

  “Hubris?” you ask. “What do you mean?”

  

  The Covid vaccines are experimental. The FDA has not approved them. Most vaccines require years to test and approve, in no small part because we want to make sure they don’t have dangerous long-term side effects, which they can have; the CDC has published a list of problems with selected approved vaccines. Many experimental vaccines never make it out of the experimental phase. CNN made similar points back when Trump was, wrongheadedly (I thought so at the time) pushing for rapid approval of the Covid vaccines. Of course, the mercurial news organization hastened to forget all that when the Biden administration decided rapid vaccine deployment was a good idea. They shouldn’t have: for all the good they certainly have done, physicians warn us that vaccines can be dangerous for some, and experimental vaccines are, naturally, even more so.

  Again, my point is simple and absolutely factual. Again:

  • experimental vaccine

  • billions of people (over two billion)

  • at the same time

  You have to be willing to trust the welfare of billions of people not just to the honesty of our leaders and scientists—because things can go wrong for decent people. You must also trust their competence—and not just that, because competent people can make surprising, unforeseeable mistakes. You must also trust that we avoided the worst, that we dodged a bullet, and that they actually succeeded in making a more or less safe vaccine.

  Of course, maybe they did. I sure hope so. But what if we discover some horrifically high incidence of catastrophic side-effects that do not show up for two or five or ten years? Scientists tell us that that is possible. It is unfortunately possible that more people will die from these experimental vaccines than would have died from a virus that kills fewer than 1% of those who contract it.

  Do not misunderstand me. I am not claiming that is happening. I am not even saying that it is terribly likely. I am saying it is possible, because these are experimental vaccines.

  Frankly, the hubris required for carrying out this plan, and for taking the lead in propagandizing the world to carry it out, is jaw-dropping and scary to me. If a world leader is willing to take such gambles with all of humanity, what else are they prepared to do? I really wonder. If suddenly you became a president or top medical system leader or media organization owner, would you want to take an action that, if you were wrong, might spell the death of millions? First, do no harm. We haven’t heard that old medical byword very much recently.

  My family received our childhood vaccinations, by the way, with no issues. I am not an anti-vaxxer. I am an anti-global-all-at-once-experimental-vaxxer. There is a big difference.

  This is not even to touch the question whether these experimental vaccines should be mandated, i.e., if you should lose your basic civil rights if you fail to be vaccinated. Maybe I will write about that question, definitely a non-medical question, separately another time. There is indeed much, much more to say.

  But my present point is simple: experimental vaccine—billions of people—at the same time. It utterly boggles the mind that so many otherwise reasonable people have been influenced to think this is a good idea.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 23:00

• Mercedes-Benz Unveils Armored S-Class Can Withstand AK-47 Bullets
  Mercedes-Benz Unveils Armored S-Class Can Withstand AK-47 Bullets

  Mercedes-Benz has tapped into the armored car market by releasing a new S-Class saloon that can survive a hail of machine-gun bullets. 

  The S 680 Guard 4MATIC is the armored version of the German carmaker’s full-size luxury sedan. It costs more than $650,000 but comes armored to the teeth to protect high-ranking officials, politicians, heads of state. 

  For instance, the Guard has the highest level of ballistic protection plates for a civilian vehicle. The polycarbonate windows are nearly 4 inches thick. The vehicle comes with a built-in oxygen tank and fire suppression system in case of an attack. 

  The armored plating and other modifications take Mercedes-Benz an extra 51 days to install. The weight of the vehicle is 4.2 tons, or about double the standard S-Class saloon.

  Pictures of the vehicle look like any other Mercedes-Benz. Non-descript or blending into the environment is what the German automaker is going after. 

  

  Mercedes-Benz appears to be entering the armored car market about two years after Russia unveiled a bulletproof saloon for heads of state worldwide. The cost of the Russian saloon is a lower-cost option to the Benz. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 22:40

• 'Preppers' Quietly Stock Up For The 'Perfect Storm'
  ‘Preppers’ Quietly Stock Up For The ‘Perfect Storm’

  Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times,

  A crippling ice storm that left Travis Maddox and thousands of other Missouri residents without power in 2007 had an “almost apocalyptic feel to it.”

  “No one could move. It just shut the whole region down for two weeks. I wasn’t as prepared as I thought,” said Maddox, a burly man of 43 sporting a long black beard, T-shirt, cargo pants and baseball cap, while tending his garden.

  

  Those two weeks made Maddox realize that being prepared—“prepping,” as it’s called today—was the key to a life of self-reliance and personal freedom.

  As an Eagle Scout, he never forgot the Boy Scout motto: Be prepared.

  “To me, the ultimate level of prepping is being self-sufficient. You’re still being modern, but you’re in control,” Maddox told The Epoch Times in a phone interview on Thursday.

  In 2009, Maddox launched his YouTube channel, “The Prepared Homestead,” which now has over 32,000 subscribers.

  People, he said, are waking up to the worsening reality of supply chain disruptions and food shortages, and rapid political and social changes that all point toward “a perfect storm” just ahead.

  The COVID-19 lockdowns and empty store shelves served only to heighten popular sentiment that the “old normal” is gone, he said.

  “When the pandemic struck we started seeing all this panic buying,” Maddox said.

  “What’s really increased is the number of people that contact me. These are really personal emails. They’re not crazy extremists. These are single moms, elderly people, disabled people, regular working people. They’re realizing that things are changing. They can just feel things are changing rapidly,” he said.

  “The riots [of 2020] were bad. The election was bad. Now what’s happening is the whole world is starting to change,” Maddox added.

  Talk of a global political and economic “Great Reset” and vaccine passports have done little to diminish anxiety among the unvaccinated that society is about to turn its back on them. And so they and others prepare—with food, water, alternative power sources, survival gear, and plans to leave the city if possible for the relative safety of rural areas.

  Along with The Prepared Homestead, a host of other YouTube channels cater to the seasoned and beginning preppers, including “Magic Prepper” in North Dakota, “Angry Prepper” in New York City, “Alaska Prepper”, “Ice Age Farmer”, and many others.

  Maddox said The Prepared Homestead began as a way to share basic gardening tips that grew in scope as political and economic circumstances changed.

  Now, he produces at least six videos a week, touching upon controversial topics such as forced vaccination, firearms confiscation, and “cultural secession”—living apart from the government and its “woke” culture—while using careful language to avoid the YouTube censors.

  “A huge portion of our country is saying you’ve gone too far,” Maddox said.

  “We’re seeing not just a rapid change in politics and policies and the economy, we’re seeing a rapid change in the heart and soul of America.”

  

  A storage room stacked with food is seen at a preppers ranch in Mathias, West Virginia, on March 13, 2020. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images)

  While many individual preppers and prepper organizations try to remain anonymous, the number of people preparing appears to be growing. In the last year alone, roughly 45 percent of Americans, or about 116 million people, said they spent money preparing for hard times or spent money stockpiling survival goods, according to Finder.com.

  Maddox, however, said there’s a big difference between prepping and “hoarding.”

  “Prepping is something most people did all the time” in bygone years.

  “Our grandparents were preppers. I suspect if things continue to worsen preppers will be made to be the bad guys,” he said.

  In the months following the pandemic lockdowns, online stores that serve a growing number of preppers have experienced record-breaking sales and interest in their products.

  Keith Bansemer, president of My Patriot Supply in Salt Lake City, said his business has grown exponentially amid widespread fear of a return to COVID-19 lockdowns, empty store shelves, and forced vaccinations that will limit personal freedoms.

  “For those that choose not to be vaccinated, the fear is that it’s going to restrict their access to certain things,” Bansemer told The Epoch Times.

  In a word—food.

  “Since mid-July, we have seen a [six-fold] increase in orders and are shipping several thousand orders daily from our centers in Utah, Missouri, and Ohio,” Bansemer said.

  “Americans are quietly preparing.”

  Bansemer said My Patriot Supply has provided over 1 million families in the U.S. with emergency foods, water filtration, and other survival products since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.

  “We own and operate three large warehouses covering over 500,000 square feet. We spent the last year adding 10 times the additional capacity to our operations to best serve our customers during times of crisis and emergencies during spikes in orders like we are seeing now,” Bansemer said.

  “An increasing number of those new to preparing have placed orders recently. They are primarily purchasing our large food kits that average over 2,000 calories per day and last up to 25 years in storage. The most popular item right now is our 3-Month Emergency Food Kit,” he added.

  In the end, he said, being prepared isn’t about politics—it’s that “people just need to eat.”

  

  A prepper collects eggs from his chickens which he raises at his home in Sebastopol, California on March 30, 2017. (Monica Davey/AFP via Getty Images)

  At South Carolina-based Practical Preppers, a supplier of emergency preparing supplies, President Scott Hunt said COVID is “definitely a driver of increased demand.”

  “The social and political divisions are also making people nervous,” Hunt told The Epoch Times.

  The Texas ice storm and the Colonial pipeline ransom earlier this year “really caused people everywhere to pursue independence,” he said.

  “Electrical independence is very high on everyone’s list. I predict demand will outstrip supply this month or the next. Shipping difficulties play a very large role in this. Port congestion and trucking shortages are contributing to this perfect storm,” Hunt said.

  As a seasoned prepper, Maddox said homesteading is the next level preparing for hard times. Both he and his wife and daughter live in a family-built house tucked away in the pristine Ozarks with the goal of living off the grid.

  The family raises goats, chickens, sheep, turkeys, and grows a variety of fruits and vegetables including squash, corn, and asparagus in a large garden.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 22:20

• These Are America's Most-Searched And Visited News Sites In Each State
  These Are America’s Most-Searched And Visited News Sites In Each State

  America is known to have significant distinctions at the state-by-state level, and data suggests this trend extends to popular news sources.

  To learn more, Visual Capitalist’s Aran Ali shows this infographic from SEMRush ranks U.S. news websites by search volume and popularity across U.S. states.

  

  Here’s how the top 10 news sites compare when ranked by monthly visitors, as well as the number of states the news source is most searched for in:

  

  Political affiliation plays a large role in determining each state’s favored news sites. Blue states lean towards Google News and CNN, while red states overwhelmingly choose Fox News.

  The Most Popular News Sites

  Yahoo News is the most popular news website in America, bringing in a massive 175 million monthly visitors. In addition, they’re the most searched for news site in 12 states—the highest of any website. The company’s history has been a roller coaster ride and at different times Yahoo intended to acquire Google and Facebook. Both companies went on to be worth over $1 trillion each, while Yahoo shrank some 90% from when it was once worth $125 billion.

  The New York Times has 60 million monthly visitors, but in recent years, has pivoted towards the coveted and trending paid subscription model. This decision is paying off well, as the site now has 6.1 million paid subscribers—more than any of its competitors. Consequently, the New York Times’ share price hit a record high in December 2020.

  HuffPost, and their audience of 110 million, were bought by BuzzFeed from Verizon in November of 2020. The two organizations have some history together, as BuzzFeed co-founder Jonah Peretti was also one of the early founders of HuffPost.

  CNN is seeing a fall in ratings ever since Donald Trump left office. By some measures has witnessed a 36% decline in primetime viewers in the new year.

  Google News experiences 125 million visitors a month, ranking second overall. That said, they stand tall relative to their competitors by overall visits to their main site. Here, Google hits 92.5 billion monthly visits, while Yahoo experiences a more modest 3.8 billion. Unlike legacy media news companies, Google has managed to increase their market share of U.S. advertising revenues, due to more ads going digital.

  The Modern News Landscape

  Overall, the modern news industry has been a tough landscape to operate in. Here are some of the reasons why:

  First, the internet has removed barriers to where people obtain information, and revenue streams have been disrupted in the process. The advertising business model of news organizations is cutthroat to compete in, and there has been plenty of consolidation and layoffs.

  Lastly, trust in traditional news and media organizations has been declining amongst Americans, from nearly 60% to 46% since 2019.

  

  To add to this, on a global basis, the U.S. ranks well below most major countries based on trust in news media.

  Some organizations like The Washington Post and The New York Times have opted out of the advertising model, moving towards the direction of premium subscriptions. But only 20% of the Americans pay for their news, which could lead to stiff competition down the road.

  The Future Of News

  There are serious concerns about the future of news in the era of spreading misinformation. Up to 43% of Americans say the media are doing a very “poor/poor job” in supporting democracy. But despite this waning trust, 84% of Americans view news media as “critical” or “very important”.

  What will the future of media look like throughout the 21st century and how will this impact the most popular news sites of today?

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 22:00

• Time To End Another Failed California Gun Control Law
  Time To End Another Failed California Gun Control Law

  Authored by John Seiler via The Epoch Times,

  Gun control laws don’t work.

  Yet politicians eager to curb Americans’ Second Amendment right to “keep and bear arms” keep pushing for tighter laws to grab more guns.

  

  A good example is California’s Armed and Prohibited Persons System (APPS), defined by Attorney General Rob Bonta’s website as “a database populated with data from a number of existing DOJ databases.”

  How’s that for a bureaucratic phrase?

  The APPS data “identify criminals who are prohibited from possessing firearms subsequent to the legal acquisition of firearms or registration of assault weapons.”

  In English, they’re felons or others who previously had bought guns, but were banned from owning them. Yet they continued to hold the guns, or are suspected of having them.

  “The APPS program”—weirdly defined by the AG as a system and a program—“is a highly sophisticated investigative tool that provides law enforcement agencies with information about gun owners who are legally prohibited from possessing firearms.”

  APPS was actually started by Republicans with Senate Bill 950 in 2001, by Senate Minority Leader Jim Brulte (later party chairman). It passed unanimously in both houses and was signed by then-governor Gray Davis.

  Trying to get ahead of the curve on crime issues, Republicans periodically decry the backlog of APPS cases, a safe way to seem tough on crime while not directly offending their pro-gun constituency. One example was a 2018 letter by the Senate GOP Caucus to then-attorney general Xavier Becerra (now a U.S. Senator), blasting him for allowing 10,226 delinquent cases.

  SB 950’s Senate floor analysis from 2001 actually explained it in clear language: “This bill will provide a way for law enforcement to find out which proven felons are still possessing weapons.”

  And it provided the reason: “The Attorney General [Bill Lockyer, the powerful former Senate majority leader] is sponsoring the bill in the wake of the mass slaying in February 2000 at Navistar’s International Truck and Engine Plant in Melrose Place, Illinois. In that case, the murderer was a twice-convicted felon who had previously, before his convictions, purchased firearms. Thus, even though he was prohibited and in possession of firearms, there was no way for law enforcement to find out and he was left to commit murder.

  “The bill was brought to the [attorney general] at the urging of law enforcement agencies in the state and it will provide them with a tool that will disarm these proven law-breakers before they can break the law again. If the state is going to find that some people are too dangerous to possess a gun, then we should make it as easy as possible for law enforcement to ensure that these laws are enforced.”

  Failed Potential

  On July 27 CalMatters reported, “But what seemed at the time like a straight-forward approach to the enforcement of existing gun laws has instead become mired in chronic shortcomings, failing for years to make good on its potential. Successive administrations have vowed to fix the problems, but all have fallen short.

  “Today, the state is struggling to recover thousands of guns from people who have been ordered to surrender them. At the start of the year, the list compiled by the state Department of Justice had swelled to 24,000 individuals, the most ever. The pandemic only worsened the mounting backlog of cases when some state Justice Department agents were pulled from field enforcement.”

  That assumes there actually was any “potential.”

  For perspective, I turned to John Lott, the nation’s top gun expert. I reviewed his book “More Guns, Less Crime” when it was released two decades ago. He recently was a senior adviser for research and statistics at the Office of Justice Programs at the U.S. Department of Justice. He now heads the Crime Prevention Research Center.

  “The notion that you will stop criminals from getting guns simply because you stop them from having legally acquired guns seems as likely to succeed as preventing criminals from buying illegal drugs, which obviously has worked flawlessly,” he told me, with a touch of irony.

  “The major source of illegal guns is drug dealers, who have to have weapons to protect their very valuable property.”

  The Brady Background Check System was enacted by the U.S. Congress in 1993. That’s what you go through when you buy a gun, and is used with APPS.

  But, Lott pointed out, “There is no real evidence that the Brady system has reduced violent crime [even gun control people agree, but they now claim that is because it didn’t go far enough]. I would argue that there is no evidence that background checks on the private transfer of guns have reduced violent crime or mass public shootings.”

  He pointed to his research on those issues in Chapter 10 of the 3d Edition of “More Guns, Less Crime,” which came out in 2010.

  Does Not Compute

  Then there’s the problem of fingering innocent people. A lot of Americans hold the same names. As noted above, the California DOJ claims its APPS database “is a highly sophisticated investigative tool.” If that’s really the case, then it’s the only efficient computer system run by the state government.

  Despite being the home of Silicon Valley, the Golden State’s government is known for its pyrite data systems. The most notorious is the system of the Employment Development Department, which collapsed under the load of millions of newly furloughed workers when COVID hit. A December 2020 report by California Auditor excoriated its computer system because, “[N]early half of the claims EDD processed in the first six months of the claim surge required additional intervention to complete filing after claimants submitted them online.”

  Let’s not forget the California DMV, a byword for bureaucratic incompetence. Government Technology magazine reported in February, “Personal information for possibly millions of California drivers may have been accessible to hackers this month after a company contracting with the California DMV suffered a security breach earlier this month.”

  Getting back to guns, Lott said, “The background check system that we have is a mess, with about 99 percent of the 3.8 million who have been stopped being mistakes. It is one thing to stop a felon from buying a gun, but it is something else to stop a law-abiding person simply because they have a name similar to a felon.”

  With racial tensions rising since the killing of George Floyd more than a year ago, the last thing we need to do is make that worse over guns. But that’s what’s happening.

  “The error rate is very high among minorities because people tend to have names similar to others in their racial groups,” Lott said.

  “When I was recently working at the [U.S. department of justice] the error rate for black males was three times their share of the population and for Hispanic males was 2.5 times their share of the population.”

  That is, the minorities’ Second Amendment rights were violated at a much higher rate than were those of whites.

  Lack of Data

  The CalMatters article summarized numerous problems with the APPS being unable to go after a lot of people who aren’t supposed to have guns, but still have them. It noted, “Experts on the system—who note that thousands of guns have, in fact, been removed from individuals—say stakeholders throughout government must summon the resolve to finally fix the system’s deepening problems.”

  But get this, CalMatters also found, “Although the state does not track how many individuals, if any, commit crimes while they continue to remain armed, the agency has good reason to be concerned.”

  But if there’s no data, there’s just smoke. The state has no idea what’s going on.

  And this: “At the time of its adoption, the Armed and Prohibited Persons System was seen as the low-hanging fruit of gun-control measures—taking firearms from known owners who legally shouldn’t have them.

  “But today, the inability of state and local agencies to make it work as envisioned has raised questions about how they can begin to confront the wider menace posed by the thousands of illegal firearms circulating throughout California or the new wave of untraceable ‘ghost guns,’ assembled at home from mail-order kits.’”

  Ghost Guns

  Ah, yes, the bogeyman of ghost guns, which President Joe Biden also demanded be regulated in his Feb. 14 speech attacking the Second Amendment. They’re made by 3D printers. Which means the only way to stop them is by banning or regulating 3D printers. The designs can be downloaded from Internet sites located around the world.

  It reminds me how, in the Soviet Union, Xerox copiers were numbered and regulated to prevent “samizdat”—self-published underground publications—from being circulated. That’s what tyrannies do.

  The fact is, unless you live in a city like Chicago or Baltimore that’s run by Democrats defunding the police, your chances of being murdered are quite low, by guns or other means. It’s a gigantic country of 330 million people. So bad things will happen, including massacres that lead the news cycle.

  The Armed and Prohibited Persons System was a mistake enacted 20 years ago that should not be fixed, but ended. Of course, if police in the course of their work come across someone who shouldn’t own a gun, then they should enforce the law. But a special program sending officers to people’s homes – often the wrong homes – in search of alleged violators went too far.

  We need to get back to the American reflex to always bend our laws toward freedom.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 21:40

• FBI Busts International Plot To Take Out Myanmar's UN Ambassador In New York
  FBI Busts International Plot To Take Out Myanmar’s UN Ambassador In New York

  Myanmar’s junta rulers have maintained an iron grip on the country since the February 2021 coup d’etat which saw elected leaders of the National League for Democracy get rapidly deposed and placed under arrest by the army.

  But given the United Nations has not recognized the coup government under the generals, Myanmar’s ambassador to the UN Kyaw Moe Tun has actually remained in place despite him also saying he does not recognize the new government. He’s continued to represent the now deposed National Unity Government at UN meetings in New York City.

  

  But the military has said he no longer represents the country. State TV announced last February that he’d “betrayed” Myanmar and was fired, particularly after his public calls for outside countries to employ “all means necessary” to reverse the army takeover. 

  This week it was revealed that a mysterious threat on his life was made, which got the FBI involved and resulted in beefed up personal security. Reuters reported earlier in the week:

  Myanmar’s ambassador to the United Nations, denounced by his country’s military rulers, said on Wednesday that an apparent threat had been made against him and U.S. authorities had stepped up his security.

  “Reportedly there is some threat. The police are working on it. Necessary security has be provided by the police,” Kyaw Moe Tun told Reuters. He was made aware of the threat on Tuesday.

  On Friday US Attorney’s Office Southern District of New York announced the arrest of two Burmese nationals believed behind the plot against Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun. A press statement described a plan to “assault and make a violent attack upon Myanmar’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations.”

  He was “wanted” by the junta…

  

  US federal charges were filed after agents were tipped off to the plot. US Attorney Audrey Strauss detailed in the Friday statement: “As alleged, Phyo Hein Htut and Ye Hein Zaw plotted to seriously injure or kill Myanmar’s ambassador to the United Nations in a planned attack on a foreign official that was to take place on American soil.”

  In what sounds like something out a Hollywood movie, the pair were alleged to have been touch with an international arms dealer out of Thailand who helped coordinate a murder-for-hire plot.

  “In the course of those conversations, HTUT and the Arms Dealer agreed on a plan in which HTUT would hire attackers to hurt the Ambassador in an attempt to force the Ambassador to step down from his post,” a detailed statement from the DOJ described. “If the Ambassador did not step down, then the Arms Dealer proposed that the attackers hired by HTUT would kill the Ambassador.”

  “Shortly after agreeing on the plan, ZAW contacted HTUT by cellphone and transferred approximately $4,000 to HTUT through a money transfer app as an advance payment on the plot to attack the Ambassador,” the statement continues. “Later, during a recorded phone conversation with ZAW, HTUT discussed how the planned attackers would require an additional $1,000 to conduct the attack on the Ambassador in Westchester County, and for an additional payment the attackers could, in substance, ‘finish off’ the Ambassador.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 21:20

• America's "Re-Education" Camps
  America’s “Re-Education” Camps

  Authored by William Choslovsky via RealClearPolicy.com,

  We rightly criticize and condemn China for sending more than one million Uighurs – Muslims – to “re-education” camps. At the “camps” the Uighurs are “educated” in a process their Chinese elders describe as “washing brains, cleansing hearts, strengthening righteousness and eliminating evil.”

  Again, this is sick and wrong, a human rights abuse, something that should disgust us all.

  But we have our own, milder, version of “re-education” camps that indoctrinate, all for a supposed good, evolved cause. We call our re-education camps public schools.

  

  Here is one example, from Evanston, right outside of Chicago, of what first and second graders are now “taught” in school:

  

  DEEMAR V. BOARD OF EDUCATION OF THE CITY OF EVANSTON/SKOKIE

  This is not a one-off or a rogue teacher. This is the curriculum, endorsed by the superintendent and school board. 

  Likewise, teachers are forced to acknowledge that “white identity is inherently racist.” They are actually separated by race during training. And if teachers object or question the practice, the district brands them “racists.”

  Students are also separated at times by race. During “Black Lives Matter Week,” the science department is required to teach a lesson called, “Black Women and Unapologetically Black.” Fifth grade teachers are even required to indoctrinate – I mean “teach” – that “color blindness helps racism.”

  Teachers are instructed “to disrupt the Western nuclear family dynamic as the proper way to have a family” and instead to promote the “Black Village,” which is a “collective village that takes care of each other.”

  Again, this is the curriculum for teaching seven year olds. It covers more than 7,000 kindergarteners through eighth graders attending 15 schools.

  Amidst all of this, sadly fewer than half of the district’s students meet or exceed the state’s math and English standards. And in the name of “equity,” the district recently eliminated geometry for its advanced students.

  This can’t be dismissed as “oh, that’s just wacky Evanston,” or that’s just “cuckoo Berkeley.” This is increasingly the norm across America. If not there already, it may be coming to a school near you.

  In short, it is an entire curriculum based on race. The student handbook even prominently states that the district “is committed to focusing on race as one of the first visible indicators of identity.” 

  In this respect the district arguably promotes the exact opposite teachings of what Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. espoused and demanded: Namely, a colorblind society where his children were “judged on the content of their character, not the color of their skin.”

  What Evanston – and schools across the country – are doing is unequivocally misguided. It is dangerous. It is divisive. It hinders, not helps, inclusion, healing, progress, community, and self-worth. 

  And as we will soon learn, it might be illegal.

  In fact, our country fought this battle almost 70 years ago in the courts. It took the famous case of Brown v. Board of Education in 1954 to end our nation’s shameful practice of “separate but equal.” There the Supreme Court ruled that “separate but equal” is “inherently unequal,” thankfully ending the sanctioned practice of government segregation by race.

  But now it’s back, just trumpeted as a good, evolving, progressive thing this time. 

  Though people will equivocate, rationalize, and seek to justify, little commentary is necessary when first graders are taught “whiteness is a bad deal” and separated at times from their black peers based only on their race.

  If it’s wrong and bad for the Chinese to “re-educate” Uighurs based on their race or religion – and spoiler alert, it is very wrong and very bad – so too it is wrong to do so with our kids based on their skin color.

  The phrase the “road to hell is paved with good intentions” comes to mind. 

  Imagine if there were schools that openly taught – as part of the approved curriculum – that “Blackness is a bad deal,” separated kids and teachers at times by race, and told the black kids they were bad for being black.

  We would rightly be abhorred. It would not be tolerated. Yet today – just flip the labels – it is celebrated and made part of the curriculum.

  This is not to say there is no place in our schools to discuss racism and its history. Of course there is, but just the same you don’t remedy one set of wrongs by perpetuating another. As the Supreme Court stated in 2007 when prohibiting public schools from admitting kids based on race: “The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.”

  So, What to Do?

  If you think this is wrong, there are two things to do, one political and one legal. 

  On the political front, you can use the ballot box and elect school board members who reject such practices. 

  People are finally realizing that what actually affects their daily lives more is not who sits in the oval office in Washington, but the nameless folks who set policy for the schools down the street, where their kids spend more of their waking hours than at home. 

  Those boring local elections matter. A lot.

  And if that fails, people can, and should, consider filing lawsuits. To be sure, it takes courage. Stacy Deemar, a 20 year veteran teacher in Evanston, recently did so. 

  Like the plaintiffs in Brown v. Board of Education, Deemar is stepping up and saying the Evanston practices violate our Constitution’s requirement of “equal protection” under the law and must stop. Her 34 page complaint boils down to one sentence: “District 65 continues to treat individuals differently based on their race.”

  I applaud her. In short, no matter who is doing the “oppressing,” and no matter their motivation, treating people differently based on their race is wrong. Period. 

  All said, if you want to protest government “re-education” camps, sadly you don’t need to go to China. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 21:00

• "He's A Pathological Liar": Cornell Chemistry Professor Dave Collum Unloads On Dr. Fauci And Covid Hysteria
  “He’s A Pathological Liar”: Cornell Chemistry Professor Dave Collum Unloads On Dr. Fauci And Covid Hysteria

  Friend of Zero Hedge and Cornell Professor Dave Collum appeared on the Quoth the Raven podcast this week and offered his unfiltered (and often profane) 2 hour long take not only on the development of the Delta variant hysteria, but also on Dr. Fauci, vaccinations and the state of lockdowns across the globe. 

  Collum is the Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Cornell University and holds a PhD, Columbia University, MS, Columbia University, MA, Columbia University and BS, Cornell University.

  The duo of Collum and podcast host Chris Irons first talked about Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and the chief medical advisor to the president, whom Collum referred to as a “pathological liar”.

  When asked about the FOIA request for Fauci’s emails, Collum responded: “They were heavily redacted. One could only imagine what the redaction was. I got the feeling, reading the emails, Fauci was smart enough to know to not, himself, say anything. So Fauci didn’t say incriminating things, it was emails to Fauci that were incriminating.”

  Collum also took exception with the state of the country locking down again. “This is where it just keeps getting darker,” he said. “It started out as ‘flatten the curve’ and that made total sense…at the time it seemed like the scramble was to try and understand it, which I gave credit for them. It was really garbled because everything was ‘Anti-Trump’ at the time…but where I went off the rails is that it was looking like the pandemic was starting to subside and they weren’t stopping.”

  He continued: “So now what I see, what is confounding to me, which takes me down really dark places. I see panic. Panic, authoritarian levels that we vaccinate. And it’s Soviet style propaganda, it’s coercion, it’s bludgeoning.”

  

  Collum and Irons then discussed the lab leak theory, which Irons had ruminated about in-depth during a previous podcast days earlier. 

  “I’d call it a crime against humanity,” Collum said while talking about on the possibility of a lab leak cover-up. 

  “It’s interesting to look back now know what we know about Fauci’s communication,” host Chris Irons says. “It does look like a cover-up. What else are we going to find out? It’s been 18 months and the idea of a lab leak has gone from ‘completely batshit conspiracy theory’ to ‘this is the most common sense explanation’.” 

  “It’s not just that,” Collum responds. “Serious biochemists have looked at the sequencing and said ‘that does not make sense’.”

  “There’s no ethical guidelines for some of the egomaniacs in science,” Collum said.

  The discussion then moves on to vaccines, where Collum is quick to point out non-sequiturs in the “official” narrative: “It’s incoherent because they’re saying if you get vaccinated you’ll be protected and then they’re saying the people who are not vaccinated are risking the other people who are vaccinated and I’m like ‘which is it?'”

  “To vaccinate kids is nuts,” he says. “And you know what else is psychotic? The moment where it crossed the dotted line was December 2020. The vaccine had been out for a very brief period. The CDC Tweeted, I can recite it almost verbatim, although there are no studies, there’s no reason pregnant women shouldn’t get the vaccine.”

  He continued, exasperated: “You’re telling these women who are told don’t even drink a fucking glass of wine’ to get a god damn MRNA vaccine even though there’s no studies?”

  “That showed you the sociopathy of the campaign,” Collum concludes.

  You can listen to the entire interview here:

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 20:40

• Why Did China Crack Down On Its Ed-Tech Industry?
  Why Did China Crack Down On Its Ed-Tech Industry?

  Authored by Lizzi Lee via TheDiplomat.com,

  Beijing’s latest move is a response to long-held public grievances about educational inequality and the resulting pressure to keep up…

  

  The Chinese regulatory authorities have been keeping investors on the edge of their seats this year. Domestic fintech firms were among the first targeted by Beijing. Next came ride-hailing and food delivery. Now ed-tech giants have rounded out the lineup.

  To understand the latest development, it is crucial to unpack the chronic love-hate relationship between Chinese parents and China’s private tutoring industry, says Zak Dychtwald, founder of the advisory firm Young China Group. “There’s enormous pressure on parents and children to give their kids a head start and to get them into the best school possible.”

  It all starts with the idea of “the project of childhood,” defined as the laser-focused drive to get ahead early in life, where having a leg up early on can define a child’s competitiveness from the middle school market, the high school market, the college and professional market, to the marriage and housing market, before reaching full circle as their offspring undergo the same ritual.

  Savvy business minds leaped at the opportunity, creating alluring promises of miracle grade boosters. Marketers tapped parents’ guilt mentality of not giving their kids the best chances they deserve with anxiety-inducing pitches. Scammers prey on low-income households with misleading free trials and deep discounts, which subsequently lock families into expensive multi-year contracts.

  On Chinese social media, where grievances about civil society are tightly controlled, signs of dissatisfaction surfaced.

  Tracking the emergence of neologisms, China Media Project has identified a fabric of buzzwords in recent years reflecting this mentality. The so-called “996” culture describes the expectation that employees work from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. six days a week. “Chicken child” (鸡娃), a subtle dig at the tiger mom concept, mocks parents who push their children extremely hard to excel at all costs. The emergence of “little joys” (小确幸) and a “buddha-like” (佛系) lifestyle reflects the conscious choice of a more relaxed, hands-off approach to life, arising from a broad sense of the desperation of “involution” (内卷). This term refers to the meaningless rat race in which “one does not grow or progress but merely spins in place, becoming more and more exhausted in the process.” Then comes “tang ping” (躺平), or “lying flat.”

  In April 2021, a short Baidu post titled “Lying Flat Is Justice” emerged. “The stresses of life have been primarily generated by established ways of thinking and by the older generation,” says the post. The post resonated with so many that it created an overnight sensation.

  “Gaping educational inequality, along with the perception that you have to enter the rat race of getting ahead, is the single biggest source of anxiety in the Chinese society,” says Yale Law School professor Zhang Taisu.

  “People in policymaking circles and intellectual circles understand this. If you see this, then the crackdown seems a natural, long-overdue course correction.”

  To Xiaobo Lü, associate professor at the Department of Government, the University of Texas at Austin, the new regulations aim to kill two birds with one stone. “The Chinese central government has been increasingly wary about the role of private capital in the private education sector, or more broadly, the tech sector.”

  Still, as with almost all policy changes, there are winners and losers. The entire private tutoring and test prepping industry has been dealt a fatal blow. Reports of large-scale lay offs in the sector have surfaced on Chinese social media. Small-to-medium-sized providers face an existential crisis, expected to fold within a year if the current policy persists.

  Tantalizing proposals for reorienting existing business models, including investing in extracurricular programs excluded from the new regulations, have been circulated.

  “I think it’s going to be very difficult for them. It’s as if Ford couldn’t make the F-150 [truck] anymore. It’s their core competitive product and 80 percent of their balance sheet that got hit.” says Dychtwald.

  But not all is lost, argues Dychtwald. “If there’s ever an entrepreneurial group in the world who is good at adapting, adopting, and evolving at incredible speed, it’s China. Chinese entrepreneurs, in many ways, are products of their ecosystem, where regulation can change on a dime,” says Dychtwald.

  “The root of the problem is the widening social inequality, and the privileged and wealthy will come up with alternative ways to maximize their children’s education advantages, such as hiring private tutors to teach at home,” says Syracuse University Sociology professor Yingyi Ma.

  A ream of bank think-pieces indicates Wall Street equity strategists are connecting the dots. Instead of tracking the fast-moving economic landscape and profit projections, investors would be better positioned by selling businesses that are perceived to exacerbate inequality, such as education and housing, and buying ones aligned with Beijing’s stated long-term policy goals.

  In a speech delivered at the Communist Party’s Central Party School in January, Xi Jinping called on the government to proactively reduce the ever-growing income gaps to improve people’s sense of “empowerment, happiness, and security.” Reiterating the importance of “common prosperity,” Xi “warned it is “not only an economic issue but also a major political issue.”

  This might sound like mundane, abstruse Communist jargon until one realizes China has joined the club of capitalist countries with the most skewed wealth distribution. According to a new paper by Thomas Piketty, Li Yang, and Gabriel Zucman, the share of national income earned by the top 10 percent of the Chinese population has increased from 27 percent in 1978 to 41 percent in 2015, while the share earned by the bottom half of the population has dropped from 27 percent to 15 percent.

  The crackdown reflects Xi’s broader desire to take China out of its Gilded Age, as well as his preferred method to achieve that via command, argues Yuen Yuen Ang, associate professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

  “He genuinely wants a society that is less corrupt and more equal. And he intends to do so through commands. Have poverty? Command its eradication. Have corruption? Command its eradication. Have unequal education access? Command its eradication,” writes Ang.

  While acknowledging that these commands could be highly popular among the lower classes, Ang cautions that no leader can “command social problems out of sight.”

  Further, when a government can electrocute an entire industry with a snap of its fingers, investors have good reason to be alarmed. The series of regulatory crackdowns has wiped some $400 billion off the value of U.S.-listed Chinese companies, setting off a fanatic run for exit last week.

  “[The authorities] spent much of the summer going after private firms. There is a sense that they want to get everything done in one fell swoop,” says Zhang,

  “If you have the gears of the bureaucracy churning in such a way, you might as well take advantage of that momentum.”

  Dexter Tiff Roberts, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Asia Security Initiative, writes in a report: “While the importance of the private sector to China’s economy has not lessened, its status in the eyes of China’s top officials has undergone a real downgrading in recent years, and earlier efforts to make a fairer playing field have stalled.”

  Barry Naughton, professor at the University of California, San Diego, and one of the world’s top researchers on China’s economy, cautions that the recent regulatory assaults are part of the great initiative of increasing government control.

  “What’s the unifying feature of all these dramatic moves that the Chinese government has taken in the last couple of months? I think the answer is Beijing has decided that it has the ability and wants to even more actively steer the economy than it had before,” says Naughton.

  Xi Jinping himself has been unabashed about his desire to contain the unchecked expansion of the education sector. Online education has been “hijacked by capital,” concludes People’s Daily, the paramount CCP mouthpiece.

  If one looks close enough, the new raft of stringent regulations against China’s booming private-tutoring industry has long been on the official agenda. Still, to many, Beijing’s most recent abrupt moves feel like unpredictable bursts of wrath.

  “China’s volatile style of policymaking… often leads to a policy control mechanism that fluctuates between very lax and very harsh enforcement,” posits Angela Zhang, director of the Center for Chinese Law at the University of Hong Kong, in a new article.

  “It is a substantial reorientation in the attitude of the Chinese government, and I do not think that investors are overreacting,” says Naughton.

  When China’s stock market imploded in 2015, authorities scrambled to stem the losses. “This time Chinese government is acting as if they don’t care if the stock market crashes,” says Naughton.

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 20:20

• Retiring Baby Boomers Must Avoid Living In These States
  Retiring Baby Boomers Must Avoid Living In These States

  Millions of Baby Boomers retire each year from the US labor force. They must make the difficult decision if their current home state is worth living out their “golden years” of adulthood. 

  

  To simplify the process of what states are the best for retirees in 2021. The finance website Bankrate provides new data of the worst states to retire in this year. 

  Bankrate examined five essential factors: affordability, wellness, culture, weather, and crime for each state. Affordability and wellness were weighted the most, 40% and 20%, respectively. 

  The survey found that Maryland, Minnesota, and Kansas were the worst three states to retire in.

  “It’s a complicated formula to figure out what’s going to attract people to your state and how to create the best climate for them,” Jeff Ostrowski, Bankrate analyst, told CNBC. “It’s a combination of factors, some in the control of the state and its leaders and some that are not.”

  Ostrowski said Maryland ranked the worst because of complaints about the state’s tax burdens. 

  Here’s the full list of the eleven worst states to retire in this year: 

  11. Washington

  • Affordability rank: 36
  • Wellness rank: 8
  • Culture rank: 27

  9. TIE: Idaho

  • Affordability rank: 22
  • Wellness rank: 39
  • Culture rank: 30

  9. TIE: Connecticut

  • Affordability rank: 49
  • Wellness rank: 7
  • Culture rank: 9

  8. Alabama

  • Affordability rank: 8
  • Wellness rank: 44
  • Culture rank: 43

  6. TIE: Arkansas

  • Affordability rank: 19
  • Wellness rank: 49
  • Culture rank: 42

  6. TIE: Maine

  • Affordability rank: 40
  • Wellness rank: 29
  • Culture rank: 1

  5. Alaska

  • Affordability rank: 25
  • Wellness rank: 23
  • Culture rank: 20

  4. Montana

  • Affordability rank: 33
  • Wellness rank: 33
  • Culture rank: 3

  3. Kansas

  • Affordability rank: 24
  • Wellness rank: 26
  • Culture rank: 38

  2. Minnesota

  • Affordability rank: 39
  • Wellness rank: 15
  • Culture rank: 34

  1. Maryland

  • Affordability rank: 47
  • Wellness rank: 4
  • Culture rank: 39

  The timing of the Bankrate report comes as the number of retired Baby Boomers has surged post-pandemic, according to Pew Research Center analysis data from late 2020. 

  

  “We’re not expecting that someone’s going to make their life decision based on one index; it’s just another data point to consider,” Ostrowski said.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 20:00

• Biden Administration Drops Lawsuit Protecting Pro-Life Nurses
  Biden Administration Drops Lawsuit Protecting Pro-Life Nurses

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  The Biden Administration took a little discussed but significant action this month in dropping a lawsuit against the University of Vermont Medical Center for allegedly forcing pro-life nurses to participate in abortions. It is not clear if the Biden Administration believes that pro-life nurses can be forced to participate in procedures that they consider to be immoral. However, it is clear that they are not willing to protect those religious views in this important action despite the faith-based claims under federal law. Indeed, the nurse believed the procedure constitute murder of the unborn and the Trump Administration agreed that she should be able to decline.

  

  According to the prior findings letter,  the medical center refused the request of the nurse to excuse herself from the abortion procedure. Other nurses were all allegedly forced to help despite such objections. There was no evidence that the Center could not accommodate the religious objectors by using other nurses.

  During the Trump Administration, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)  asked the DOJ to investigate the matter as a civil rights violation. However, Biden Secretary Xavier Becerra asked for the investigation and lawsuit to be terminated.

  The HHS told Fox News:

  After a detailed evaluation of the underlying legal theory used to issue a referral to the Department of Justice, the Department of Health and Human Services withdrew the original referral and requested DOJ dismiss the suit against the University of Vermont Medical Center, a request which was granted.

  In line with this, HHS removed the Notice of Violation issued against UVMCC last Friday. HHS continues to evaluate the underlying facts of the matter and notified all the parties about its actions last Friday.

  That says virtually nothing. It is particularly glaring in light of the prior findings. The prior Administration found:

  UVMMC forced the nurse complainant to assist in an abortion against the nurse’s religious or moral objection. The nurse had expressed an objection for many years and was included in a list of objectors, but UVMMC knowingly assigned the nurse to an abortion procedure. The nurse was not told the procedure was an abortion until the nurse walked into the room, when the doctor—knowing the nurse objected to assisting in abortions—told the nurse, “Don’t hate me.” The nurse again objected, and other staff were present who could have taken the nurse’s place, but the nurse was required to assist with the abortion anyway. If the nurse had not done so, the nurse reasonably feared UVMMC would fire or report the nurse to licensing authorities.

  The prior referral was based on the view that this violated the the Church Amendments by forcing employees to participate in abortions against their moral or religious objections. 42 U.S.C. § 300a-7(c)(1) of the Church Amendments which state:

  “(c)Discrimination prohibition

  (1)No entity which receives a grant, contract, loan, or loan guarantee under the Public Health Service Act [42 U.S.C. 201 et seq.], the Community Mental Health Centers Act [42 U.S.C. 2689 et seq.], or the Developmental Disabilities Services and Facilities Construction Act [42 U.S.C. 6000 et seq.] after June 18, 1973, may—

  (A) discriminate in the employment, promotion, or termination of employment of any physician or other health care personnel, or

  (B) discriminate in the extension of staff or other privileges to any physician or other health care personnel, because he performed or assisted in the performance of a lawful sterilization procedure or abortion, because he refused to perform or assist in the performance of such a procedure or abortion on the grounds that his performance or assistance in the performance of the procedure or abortion would be contrary to his religious beliefs or moral convictions, or because of his religious beliefs or moral convictions respecting sterilization procedures or abortions.”

  The Center received $1.6 million in federal aide in the prior three years.

  HHS did not explain the basis for the withdrawal and just said it was “continuing to evaluate” the situation. The Biden Administration needs to be more clear on the government’s positions on religious objections. These nurses deserve better than a perfunctory, conclusory statement when they feel they are being forced to choose between the jobs and their faith.

  What is interesting is that the Biden Administration is planning on the controversial step withholding federal funds from hospitals and other institutions that do not impose a mandatory vaccine requirement. However, it is dropping an enforcement action to withhold funds to protect religious objections to participating in abortions.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 19:40

• 65% Of American Workers Would Take A 5% Pay Cut To Be Able To Permanently Work From Home
  65% Of American Workers Would Take A 5% Pay Cut To Be Able To Permanently Work From Home

  It looks like the idea of working from home is sticking.

  In fact, Americans are so keen on continuing to work from home that they would even take pay cuts to do so, according to a new Bloomberg report. In addition to just taking a pay cut, many respondents to a new survey said they would also “give up days off or put in more hours” in order to be able to keep working from home.

  

  And amidst a historic labor shortage brought about by the Federal government subsidizing the entire country to sit around and literally lock down, companies are being forced to pull out the incentives to try and get workers to return to the office. Some companies are handing out prizes or even providing things like free lunch, child care, or yoga classes.

  Insurance company Breeze commissioned the survey, which revealed that 65% of Americans said they would take a pay cut of 5% to be able to work from home. Most people said they wouldn’t give up more than 5% – but 15% of respondents said they’d be willing to give up as much as 25% of their salary to work remotely. 46% of respondents said they would give up 25% of their days off and 15% said they would give up “all paid time off” to work from home. 

  

  For employees, it could make sense, especially when factoring in the cost of commuting. For companies, it could make sense because it is another cost reduction for many companies who are already choosing to eliminate office space, and the costs associated with the real estate. 

  The survey included 1,000 people who said they were “employed or looking for work at a job that can be completed entirely remotely.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 19:20

• Olympic Organizers Refuse To Honor Victims Of 1945 Hiroshima Bombing
  Olympic Organizers Refuse To Honor Victims Of 1945 Hiroshima Bombing

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  Friday marks the 76th anniversary of the United States dropping an atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima. The anniversary coincides with the Tokyo Olympics, but organizers of the games refuse to honor the victims of the massacre.

  Hiroshima Mayor Kazumi Matsui sent a letter to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to hold a moment of silence at 8:15 am on Friday, the time that the bomb was dropped, but the request was denied.

  

  The letter read: “We want athletes and related officials to somehow understand the reality of atomic bombs. Could you please call on them to join in spirit the Peace Memorial Ceremony held in Hiroshima by offering a silent prayer at the Olympic Village or wherever they are?”

  The IOC denial came after the organization’s president, Thomas Bach, visited memorial sites in Hiroshima in July. “I wanted them to take just a bit of time. What did Mr. Bach visit Hiroshima for? We feel betrayed,” said Toshiyuki Mimaki, a 79-year-old of Nihon Hidankyo, an organization of A-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

  Explaining its denial of the request, the IOC said it made a decision not to call on athletes or officials to hold a moment of silence. The closing ceremony of the Olympics scheduled for August 8th will have a segment commemorating victims of historical tragedies. The IOC said the Hiroshima bombing could be remembered during the closing ceremony but added that the segment would not be about victims of any single incident.

  

  The real death toll of the US bombing of Hiroshima will never be known, but estimates put the number at about 140,000. The estimated population of the city at the time the A-bomb was dropped was approximately 255,000. Nagasaki was bombed a few days later, on August 9th, where an estimated 70,000 people were killed.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 19:00

• Brace For Astronomical Shipping Costs As China Goes Into Lockdown Mode
  Brace For Astronomical Shipping Costs As China Goes Into Lockdown Mode

  With the latest weekly update of container shipping rates showing that prices – already at all time high – simply refuse to back down, as rates from China to the US surpassing a record $20,000, a new threat looms which could send already sky high prices into orbit. As the delta variant spreads on the mainland, most Chinese ports are now requiring a Covid test for all crew, with vessels forced to remain at anchor until negative results are confirmed, and requiring ships to quarantine for 14-28 days if they previously berthed in India or changed crew within 14 days of arriving.

  That spells further delays, further price increases and, according to Splash, shipping will need to start to make contingency plans should China – the world’s most important nation for shipping movements – emerge as another pandemic epicenter.

  The delta variant has broken through the country’s virus defences, which are some of the strictest in the world, and reached nearly half of China’s 32 provinces in just two weeks. While the overall number of infections — more than 360 so far — is still lower than Covid resurgences elsewhere, the wide spread indicates that the variant is moving quickly with many millions of Chinese now in lockdown.

  

  “For freight markets, the implications include delays at ports as authorities screen crews of incoming vessels and a hit to China’s oil demand if widespread lockdowns are imposed,” a report from Braemar ACM pointed out this week.

  When a Covid-19 outbreak was detected at Yantian Port in late May, operations at the key southern Chinese export hub were slashed by 70% for most of June. Similar disruptions are in the cards in the coming weeks, while shipyards are also likely to see their delivery schedules come under pressure if any wider lockdown measures are taken.

  

  “As long as lockdowns remain confined to China, the impact on freight markets is likely to be muted, especially in the case of wet and dry freight. The container market seems most vulnerable if we see more severe disruptions to manufactured products supply chains,” commented Plamen Natzkoff, senior trade expert at VesselsValue. On the potential tanker ramifications, Natzkoff said: “An immediate impact of a lockdown in China is reduced population mobility which would have a direct impact on demand for transportation fuels, potentially impacting negatively the tanker market.”

  

  On the possible consequences for the container sector, Alan Murphy, CEO of Danish consultancy Sea-Intelligence, reminded readers of what happened in February 2020 when China first went into lockdown. Carriers responded with a wave of blank sailings.

  “Assuming that a strict China lockdown would lead to a scenario as in February 2020, we would expect a drop in production of 15-20% for about a month,” Murphy suggested.

  While that at first might not sound too detrimental, after all that is in rough numbers what happens every normal Chinese New Year, 2021 is not a normal year.

  “Cargo owners, already stressed beyond sanity from devastatingly high freight rates and absurd surcharges, and with no way to secure neither equipment nor space, would suddenly see their procurement costs sky-rocket in addition to their back-breaking logistics costs,” Murphy predicted, adding that the one possible silver lining for shippers could be that as the production decreases start to wave out to the Chinese ports, pressure would start to ease off on the ocean bottleneck, which could start to bring down freight rates.

  The added concern Murphy has is if Chinese ports were not able to run at full capacity, like Yantian earlier this summer.

  “For container shipping, which is more than red-hot at the moment, even a brief halt in Chinese exports is likely to ease the crunch a bit logistically so long as a lockdown only closes manufacturing sectors and not ports and terminals,” commented Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO.

  Nick Ristic, a dry bulk analyst at Braemar ACM, said the sector would not be as badly affected as it was at the start of the pandemic last year.

  “Based on the experience in other countries with prolonged lockdowns, it seems the world has learnt how to keep things running with restrictions in place,” Ristic pointed out. Of greater concern for Ristic is the state of consumer demand and the underlying economy in China, which is starting to slow down.

  “This could take some real steam out of the Chinese economy and manufacturing base. PMIs are already weakening too,” Ristic said.

  Factory activity expanded at the slowest pace in 15 months in China last month as new orders dropped. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in July from 51.3 in June, the lowest since the covid pandemic started.

  

  Bulk carrier congestion in China hit a five-year high of 50.5m dwt over the weekend, rising by 24% year-on-year as new restrictions were put in place in ports across the country. Current queues are 76% above the five-year average according to data from Braemar ACM as Covid-19-related protocols affect all sectors of the dry bulk market, worsening the crew change crisis in the process.

  Newly reported positive Covid-19 cases in China have recently forced the country to re-introduce restrictions to curb the spread of the virus. Most ports in the country are now requiring a nucleic acid test for all crew, with vessels forced to remain at anchor until negative results are confirmed.

  Many ports in the country are also requiring vessels to quarantine for 14-28 days if they previously berthed in India or performed a crew change within 14 days of arriving in China. “While it is unclear how long these measures will be in place for, they will likely tighten the dry market in the near-term,” Braemar ACM suggested in a note to clients yesterday.

  Ralph Leszczynski, global head of research at Banchero Costa, like most analysts contacted by Splash, was adamant that China would not press ahead with a national lockdown. “Larger scale lockdowns would be unsustainable economically, so can happen at local level – in a single neighborhood or city, but not for whole provinces, not to mention nationwide,” Leszczynski said.

  China has managed to carry out one of the largest vaccination campaigns this year, with over 60% of the population already reportedly vaccinated, and an 80% vaccination threshold likely to be reached by September or October.

  “China will certainly try now to contain and eliminate the current outbreak, but if they don’t manage to do that, and it spreads uncontrollably nationwide, I think they are more likely to shift towards more of a living with Covid strategy thanks to vaccination in the autumn, similar to what Singapore has announced recently, rather than shutting down the whole country, which would be unsustainable economically and create discontent,” Leszczynski said.

  Mark Williams, who heads up British consultancy Shipping Strategy, concurred with Leszczynski, telling Splash: “More likely than a national lockdown is a series of targeted lockdowns by province or county. If those lockdowns include coastal regions, key ports and logistics centres, then globalised supply chains will become chaotic.”

  Commenting on the latest developments in the increasingly whacky world of hyperinflating shipping rates, Rabobank’s Michael Every made the following observations:

  • Before this surge in shipping costs, most economists thought logistics were invisible, efficient, and of no interest. Like plumbing, you need it, but don’t let it dictate your plans for the day;
  • Those logistics assumptions were only possible because since 1945 the US Navy has kept global sea lanes open and safe for all maritime traffic. Pirates and hijacking get attention today because they are *rare* – but they did not used to be. Indeed, global sea lanes used to be carved up by empires for their preferred shipping and production, not open to all;
  • That paradigm starting to fray along with the rest of the post-WW2 global architecture;
  • Current price surges are due to massive supply-demand imbalances that are not going to go away any time soon;
  • But imagine shipping costs, and the broader implications, if we get maritime chaos in the Straits of Hormuz, around Suez, or in the South China Sea;
  • Building new maritime capacity from ship to port to warehouse to rail to truck to store to home to address our supply-demand imbalances is tied to the post-Covid economic geography: is it still a post-1945 open economy?; if not, where will things be made? We still don’t know, but we BRI vs. B3W is an example of how things are trending;

  In short, Every concludes, the ship of apolitical logistics has sailed: “Just as ‘a conservative is a liberal who has been mugged’, so a ‘mercantilist is a free trader with squeezed supply chains’.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 18:40

• The Unvaccinated: The New COVID Scapegoats
  The Unvaccinated: The New COVID Scapegoats

  Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

  They have found a COVID scapegoat. It is you.

  

  Persuasion to get the COVID vaccines failed with some Americans, as those who seek to persuade – namely government officials and the media – have no credibility. Onto the next step: a collective effort by the press, corporations, and the government to blame and vilify and target the unvaccinated. This is no coincidence, as such efforts help deflect responsibility from those who caused and created this problem in the first place.

  In New York City, you will need proof of a COVID vaccine for indoor dining, gyms, and concerts.

  If you want to participate in society fully, you’ve got to get vaccinated. It’s time.

  You’ll need proof of #COVID19 vaccination for indoor dining, indoor gyms, and indoor concerts and performances in New York City. This is a lifesaving mandate to keep our city safe. https://t.co/hIK99Z8M8A

  — Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) August 3, 2021

  Writing for The Atlantic, Juliette Kayyem (a former Homeland Security official with the Obama Administration) calls for the federal government to institute a “no-fly list for unvaccinated adults.” She desires there to be the establishment of “norms that restrict certain privileges to vaccinated people,” apparently so other “privileges” can be removed if the no-fly list doesn’t encourage enough vaccinations.

  

  Her use of the word “privilege” is intentional. This is because she believes “Flying is not a right.” We disagree. Travel (and thus the manner of travel) is a fundamental right to all Americans, “one of the implied and unremunerated rights reserved to the People.”

  Anyway, the unvaccinated “no-fly list” isn’t solely for the purposes of airplane safety. She concedes that the transmission of COVID is “unlikely” during a passenger flight. This is, instead, a proposed punishment to change the minds of the unvaccinated.

  Of course, there are millions of Americans who don’t fly. Banning them from flying won’t have the desired effect. From there it follows that they will have to remove additional “societal benefits” until compliance with a vaccine that still doesn’t have FDA approval is 100% (or at least until they get herd immunity).

  And on that point, the New York Times states, “the elusive path to herd immunity necessarily runs through vaccinating unpersuadable adults.” If they cannot be persuaded, what are the options? The Times answers that question: Without vaccine mandates, it’s hard to imagine making much progress with this population.”

  You know where they’re going with this. The Times’ Ezra Klein proposes policymakers start “raising the costs of remaining unvaccinated.” As if the people haven’t been through enough.

  Meanwhile, over on Twitter, morbidly obese writer Matthew Yglesias is offended by your health decisions and fantasizing about forced vaccinations (a position he holds but since deleted).

  

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  While they say this is about health, it is clear that it is also political.

  The press revels in condemning conservatives for not getting the vaccine. Self-loathing conservatives like David French say Evangelical vaccine hesitancy is a “spiritual problem.” Conservative governors – those with low COVID death rates in their states – are attacked for not doing enough to encourage vaccination.

  Paul Krugman takes these arguments to the next level, arguing that conservatives seeking personal autonomy are really trying to preserve their while male Christian “privilege” while making minorities pay the price.

  The government – including officials like Dr. Fauci and Dr. Francis Collins – must be happy with the blame-shifting. Just imagine their delight, after having potentially contributed to the creation of COVID-19, that the unvaccinated are now the accused.

  Never one to miss a media appearance, Dr. Fauci is out there saying the unvaccinated are “propagating” the latest outbreak, that we need to “do something to get them to be vaccinated.” This duty that Dr. Fauci advances is the purported obligation to do something to protect others. (One has to ask whether millions of lives would have been saved had they followed this same duty with taxpayer dollars at Wuhan.)

  We believe this is just the start. If persuasion has reached its limit (and there is evidence it has), then please, trust them at their word when they advocate restricting your rights and inflicting punishment if you remain unvaccinated.

  And in considering the institutions of power setting their sights on the unvaccinated – those whose purported crime is of inaction – I leave you with the words of René Girard:

  “The crowd tends toward persecution since the natural causes of what troubles it and transforms it into a turba cannot interest it. The crowd by definition seeks action but cannot affect natural causes. It therefore looks for an accessible cause that will appease its appetite for violence. Those who make up the crowd are always potential persecutors, for they dream of purging the community of the impure elements that corrupt it, the traitors who undermine it.”

  Subscribe here.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 18:20

• Lake Oroville Hydro Power Plant Shut Down For First Time Due To Megadrought
  Lake Oroville Hydro Power Plant Shut Down For First Time Due To Megadrought

  One of California’s most important hydroelectric plants has ceased operations due to falling water levels, according to the Department of Water Resources (DWR).

  On Wednesday, Lake Oroville fell to a record low of 642-feet above mean sea level. By Thursday, the lake stood at 641-feet above mean sea level. Readers may recall in mid-June, we said if the “640 feet is breached, then officials will likely be forced to close the Edward Hyatt Power Plant for the first time since it opened in 1967.”

  

  Hitting the threshold was enough for DWR to declare the hydroelectric power plant had to cease operations. Lake management officials are in a water preservation emergency amid a megadrought and scorching heat waves. 

  Karla Nemeth, the director of DRW, said the move to shut down the powerplant follows a “climate-induced drought.”

  

  Shutting down the plant is a move to conserve as much water in Lake Oroville as possible. Water in the lake is pumped into an adjacent hydroelectric energy facility known as the Hyatt power plant, which can power 800,000 homes when operational. 

  “DWR State Water Project operations managers have taken the Hyatt Powerplant at Lake Oroville offline due to falling lake levels. This is the first time Hyatt Powerplant has gone offline as a result of low lake levels. However, DWR anticipated this moment, and the state has planned for its loss in both water and grid management. We have been in regular communication about the status of Hyatt Powerplant with the California Independent Service Operator (CAISO) and the California Energy Commission and steps have been taken in anticipation of the loss of power generation.

  “This is just one of many unprecedented impacts we are experiencing in California as a result of our climate-induced drought. California and much of the western part of the United States are experiencing the impacts of accelerated climate change including record-low reservoir levels due to dramatically reduced runoff this spring.

  “DWR will continue to focus on reservoir operations and water storage management at Lake Oroville to preserve as much water in storage as possible. DWR will use the River Valve Outlet System to release some water from the base of Oroville Dam to maintain river temperature requirements and outflows to the Feather River.

  “Falling reservoir levels are another example of why it is so critical that all Californians conserve water. We are calling on everyone to take action now to reduce water use by 15 percent, to preserve as much water supply in storage as possible should we experience another dry year. We are all in this together.” – Nemeth

  The loss of the Hyatt power plant might not trigger blackouts but illustrates a broader challenge facing the state’s power grid operators this year amid multiple climate disasters. 

   Before & After 

  2019 Lake Oroville

  

  2021 Lake Oroville

  

  The power will have to be made up somewhere else to reduce the risk of blackouts: 

  “This is a huge problem. It’s part of the big challenge we are facing this summer,” Severin Borenstein, co-director of the Energy Institute at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley, told The Mercury News. 

  The silver lining is that Oroville won’t experience a spillover crisis anytime soon as drought ravages the region. Nevertheless, the federal government could quickly declare the first-ever water shortage in the area, which would prompt cutbacks in water usage. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 18:00

• Wuhan's 'Bat Lady' Warns Of Coming Covid-19 Mutants
  Wuhan’s ‘Bat Lady’ Warns Of Coming Covid-19 Mutants

  Of all the people on the planet who should probably take a pass on weighing in over the future of Covid-19, the woman suspected of either creating it and/or releasing it is probably at the top of the list.

  Yet, that’s what just happened.

  

  According to Chinese state media cited by the South China Morning Post, top CCP virologist Shi Zhengli of the Wuhan Institute of Virology – also known as “Bat Lady” – says the virus will continue to mutate, and we must prepare to coexist with it.

  “As the number of infected cases has just become too big, this allowed the novel coronavirus more opportunities to mutate and select. New variants will continue to emerge,” said Shi, whose lab was working with a US-Funded nonprofit to make bat coronaviruses more infectious to humans.

  

  Fear porn or legitimate concern?

  Aside from the obvious value in having ‘Wuhan’s Bat Lady™’ opine on emerging strains of the virus she’s an expert in – note that she doesn’t discuss how much more or less deadly new strains could be.

  For example, there’s no evidence that the Delta strain – while much more virulent than the original Alpha strain of Covid-19, is any deadlier.

  “There’s no evidence that it’s more deadly,” said Dr. Larry Corey, who is coordinating all of the COVID-19 vaccine research in the U.S (via King5). “There is evidence that it’s more infectious and more infectious to others, i.e., more transmissible. But [is it] actually more severe? There’s really not good hard evidence of that.”

  “Becoming more transmissible and less lethal are absolutely what’s best for the pathogen,” said Troy Day, a professor of mathematics and biology at Queen’s University in Canada, who has studied how infectious diseases – including coronaviruses – evolve (via AP).

  That said, sometimes viruses evolve to become more deadly.

  “…in many instances is never possible, to be more transmissible and also less lethal,” Day added – noting that there are documented cases of animal viruses which have evolved to become more lethal over time.

  Some examples of viruses that became more deadly over time include those that developed drug resistant variants, and animal viruses such as bird flu, which were harmless to humans initially but then mutated to become capable of killing people, according to Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Health Security.

  “Flu viruses have developed resistance to certain antivirals that make them more difficult to treat, and therefore make them more deadly,” said Adalja, noting that this has happened with HIV and certain strains of Hepatitis C.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 17:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Recovered COVID Patients Suffering 'Significant Cognitive Deficits' According To Large-Scale UK Study
  Recovered COVID Patients Suffering ‘Significant Cognitive Deficits’ According To Large-Scale UK Study

  Over 190 million people have officially contracted SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes Covid-19. Of that, the vast majority have recovered – while up to one-third reportedly suffer from lingering symptoms of varying severity, known as ‘long covid.’

  

  Common complaints include a lack of smell and taste, as well as “brain fog” – in which sufferers often complain of ongoing confusion, lack of focus, and migraines – well after they’ve ‘recovered’ from the disease.

  Last week, The Independent reported that Covid-19 may accelerate the onset of Alzheimer’s disease in patients suffering from neurological symptoms, while another study noted in the report found that coronavirus patients “are more susceptible to long-term memory and thinking problems.”

  Last September, a study offered the first clear evidence that Covid-19 ‘hijacks’ brain cells to make copies of itself – starving nearby cells of oxygen. The same researchers found last July that some Covid-19 patients have developed serious neurological complications, including nerve damage.

  

  Now, a large-scale study in the UK of more than 80,000 participants “offers convincing evidence that COVID-19 may indeed result in long-term cognitive deficits – even in those who suffer the mildest form of the disease,” according to Dr. Rhonda Patrick.

  Most surprisingly a significant degree of cognitive decline was found in mild cases of COVID-19. These individuals performed 0.23 standard deviations below normal – a decline that is roughly equivalent to 3.5 IQ points in a classic test of intelligence. https://t.co/rWM5sQGTjy

  — Dr. Rhonda Patrick (@foundmyfitness) August 5, 2021

  Meanwhile, Patrick also points to a different study which found a significant loss in grey matter. 

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Another study used imaging data and found that people who had COVID-19, both severe and mild, lost a significant amount of gray matter in several brain regions compared to shortly before they had been infected with SARS-CoV2 (preprint).https://t.co/uWFUSEuWRh

  — Dr. Rhonda Patrick (@foundmyfitness) August 5, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsBret Weinstein brings up an excellent, carefully-worded point in response to the above, tweeting: “it’s vital to determine how the emergence of cognitive deficits interact with early interventions and preventive measures.“

  A terrible development.

  Assuming the result holds up, it’s vital to determine how the emergence of cognitive deficits interact with early interventions and preventive measures. Sending people with Covid home to sicken in place (and to sicken others) never made sense. https://t.co/9IaFyk0Nmz

  — Bret Weinstein (@BretWeinstein) August 5, 2021

  Indeed, would early intervention with, say, Ivermectin, impact these findings?

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 02:45

• US Military Report Warns ISIS Will Operate "Indefinitely"
  US Military Report Warns ISIS Will Operate “Indefinitely”

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  The US military published a quarterly report on ISIS to Congress on Tuesday that said the group is a “low-level” threat but warned it could operate “indefinitely” in the remote deserts of Syria.

  The US presence in Iraq and Syria is under the umbrella of the US-led anti-ISIS coalitions. Washington does not want to give up its occupation of either country, so even though ISIS no longer holds significant territory, the US military has an interest in inflating the threat from the group.

  

  “Coalition partners in Iraq and Syria continued to rely on Coalition support to conduct operations, and ISIS remained entrenched as a low-level insurgency,” the Pentagon’s inspector general wrote in an introduction to the report.

  According to the report, US Central Command said ISIS “likely has sufficient manpower and resources to operate indefinitely at its present level in the Syrian desert.” CENTCOM also identified ways that the “desert environment limits the capacity of ISIS to grow or strengthen its insurgency there.”

  The US has about 900 troops in northeast Syria. On paper, the US mission is to help the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces fight ISIS. But the occupation is also part of Washington’s economic warfare against the government in Damascus. On top of crippling sanctions, the region of Syria where US troops are deployed is where most of the country’s oil fields are, keeping the vital resource out of the hands of Damascus.

  The Biden administration recently announced it is ending the US “combat” mission in Iraq by the end of this year. But the US will keep troops in the country under an advisory role. There are currently about 2,500 US troops in Iraq, and it’s not clear how many will be pulled out once the mission is changed.

  I continue to be struck by the hypocrisy of Washington DC warning about jihadist groups taking over Afghanistan when Washington DC sided with jihadist groups in Syria where Al Qaeda had many more fighters. The biggest rebel group in Syria said it hoped to emulate the Taliban.

  — Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) August 5, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Besides supporting the Iraqi government in its fight against ISIS, the US occasionally bombs Iraq’s Shia militias, who are sworn enemies of ISIS, and fought on the same side as Washington during major battles from 2014 to 2017.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/06/2021 – 02:00

• Brandon Smith: We Will Not Comply – A Campaign Against Medical Tyranny
  Brandon Smith: We Will Not Comply – A Campaign Against Medical Tyranny

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  I have been feverishly writing lately on covid mandates and vaccine passports issues, and I’m sure most readers understand why – We are currently at the cusp of a great conflict against the powers that be; people who are exploiting the (mostly manufactured) covid crisis for unprecedented political and economic control. And when I say “manufactured”, I mean that there is no crisis, no need for mandates, no need for lockdowns and no need for vaccine passports.

  

  We are dealing with a virus that around 99.7% of people will easily survive according to the medical establishment’s own studies and stats as well as numerous independent studies, yet, for some reason we are being bombarded with fear mongering from the media and from governments.

  Why is the only solution being suggested to the general public involve us giving up all of our freedoms and medical autonomy? Why is 99.7% of the population supposed to lock down, mask up and submit to an experimental mRNA vaccine with no long term testing data to prove its safety? Why don’t the 0.26% of people that are truly at risk of dying from the virus simply take precautions or stay home while the rest of us get on with normal life? Hell, I would be fine with contributing to a fund to help support the 0.26% at risk, to help their families and help with their medical bills.

  The Federal Reserve and other central banks burned trillions of dollars in stimulus measures and PPP loans to keep businesses from going completely bankrupt, and to keep jobless “non-essential” workers from starving during the initial shutdowns. But , we could have simply kept the economy going this entire time and paid a fraction of that cost helping the tiny minority of people that would actually suffer from the illness.

  Yes, that’s right, I’ll say it again and again because I STILL to this day see the media and misinformed covid cultists continually claim the death rate of covid is much higher. It is not. The median Infection Fatality rate of covid is ONLY 0.26%. This is a FACT. This is the science according the vast majority of medical studies out there on the IFR. Let me repeat: The entire world is being locked down and told we have to give up our inherent human liberties because 0.26% of the population might get more than sniffles and brain fog from a covid infection. Why?

  Well, that’s easy; because the covid response and restrictions have nothing to do with public health and everything to do with public control.

  This essay is a little different from what I usually write in that it is not so much an appeal to pure reason or pure science and more an appeal to principle. I have been asked by many readers lately if it is not better to argue against pandemic mandates based on ideals and principles rather than hammering away at the science. I think it’s important to do both, but let’s take a moment to consider the moral question and the moral question alone.

  To do that we must ask some simple questions:

  Who has the right to control your medical decisions?

  Who is qualified to control your constitutional right to life, liberty and the right to seek out prosperity?

  Who should be given the power to tell you what you can say, where you can work, where you can buy, where you can sell, where you can walk, where you can travel, what you must believe in?

  The answer is NO ONE, except yourself that is.

  But of course, the covid cult and the people that benefit from the pandemic will claim that your rights no longer apply when you are “putting the lives of others at risk”. It’s the old social contract argument – You are “part of a society”, therefore society has expectations that supersede your rights. This is all nonsense, but it’s a classic strategy used by every totalitarian in modern times. It’s never been about what “society” wants, it’s always only ever been about what the tyrants want.

  As I have noted in numerous articles with endless scientific facts and evidence, no one who wants to remain free from covid mandates or vaccine passports is putting anyone else at risk. Again, the median death rate for covid is 0.26% and neither the mandates, nor the masks, nor the vaccines have put a stop to covid infections. Interestingly, it has been the states with the harshest lockdowns and mask restrictions that had the highest rates of infection for the past 18 months. Even now, fully vaccinated people are getting covid by the thousands in “breakout cases”, and some of them have died. Infections and deaths dropped off in January long before the vaccines were widely manufactured. Only 5% of the US population was vaccinated with a single dose by February. The fact is, the vaccines have achieved nothing.

  Even if I was among the 0.26% of people that are at risk of dying, I would NEVER demand that the other 99.7% of the population give up their freedoms and their children’s freedoms just so I might feel a little bit safer. That would be an act of selfish madness.

  But lets say for a moment that we set aside all the science that supports the anti-mandate position. What if the death rate of the virus was much higher? What if we were dealing with Ebola or some other nasty pathogen? What if 1 out of 100 people were at risk? What if 1 out of 10 people were are risk? Would medical tyranny and mass lockdowns be acceptable then? The answer is no, they would not be.

  Why? Honestly, it’s a matter of who is in power and who is implementing such mandates. Why should we have blind confidence in governments made up of corrupt elitists and globalists? Who are they to look out for our best interests? How are these people qualified to protect the public trust? They are not qualified and will never be.

  They do not care about us. They are only interested in serving their own interests and pushing forward their own agendas. Just look at how excited globalist institutions like the World Economic Forum have become, calling the pandemic an “opportunity” to force through their “Great Reset” agenda. These ghouls are not the type of people the public wants in charge of micromanaging their lives.

  Thus, it is left up to the individual to protect themselves how they see fit, but the establishment tells us we are not capable of doing this. Rather, we must defer to their “better judgment”. They are supposedly smarter than us all, and as “benevolent” technocrats only they have the knowledge and righteousness to determine the course of every living person’s future.

  Globalists like Gideon Lichfield at MIT told us exactly what the plan was in March of 2020 in an article tiled ‘We’re Not Going Back To Normal’. They admit that the goal has always been to institute vaccine passport restrictions that will last for many years to come, if not forever. From the article:

  “Ultimately, however, I predict that we’ll restore the ability to socialize safely by developing more sophisticated ways to identify who is a disease risk and who isn’t, and discriminating—legally—against those who are.

  …one can imagine a world in which, to get on a flight, perhaps you’ll have to be signed up to a service that tracks your movements via your phone. The airline wouldn’t be able to see where you’d gone, but it would get an alert if you’d been close to known infected people or disease hot spots. There’d be similar requirements at the entrance to large venues, government buildings, or public transport hubs. There would be temperature scanners everywhere, and your workplace might demand you wear a monitor that tracks your temperature or other vital signs. Where nightclubs ask for proof of age, in future they might ask for proof of immunity—an identity card or some kind of digital verification via your phone, showing you’ve already recovered from or been vaccinated against the latest virus strains.”

  I say to you that this is the classic philosophy of almost every semi-human monster that has ever lived. This is the ideology of narcissistic sociopaths. The religion of soulless robots. Some of the greatest evils known to mankind have been committed in the name of “the greater good of the greater number”. This mantra cannot be tolerated under any circumstance; it cannot be allowed to infect our nation and supplant our deeper values. Because if it does, we may find ourselves slaves to the system for a very long time.

  As I have been warning they would do for the past year, multiple governments are keeping pandemic lockdowns and restrictions in place or they are bringing them back (in the case of the US), and it should be clear to everyone that this circular process of medical tyranny is not going to end. It is never meant to end. The goal of the establishment, of globalists and governments, is to keep the restrictions in place indefinitely.

  The mainstream media has consistently attacked the claim that governments would enforce vaccine passports as conspiracy theory. Now they are openly admitting that the plan is to institute vaccine passports and they are vigorously defending it. They are discussing with avid fervor how they might be able to FORCE or compel each and every person to take the jab, even if they don’t want it and even if the jab serves no purpose.

  I have my own suspicions of the jab and its true purpose and safety, but lets not forget that the jab is at the very least a stepping stone to the vaccine passports. The passports are the key to everything. Without the passports, medical tyranny cannot be established. Without the passports they have no leverage over the population to dictate the fundamental aspects of our lives. They NEED the passports in order to get their “Great Reset”. Without a “papers please” social credit system in place, their Reset will fall apart.

  It is therefore imperative above all else that the vaccine passports are never allowed to take root. The program must be stopped and destroyed.

  I am not a major “influencer” in conservative or liberty movement circles. I am not a big YouTube personality or a media Juggernaut. I have no big business backing or deep pockets to spur a national campaign. I’m not particularly fond of public speaking though I have learned to deal with it. I am just a writer with a love for the values of freedom, the values of reason and in many cases the values of faith that give humanity meaning. And, what I see is a deadly serious need; a need for an organized front line against the storm of dictatorship that is on our doorstep.

  What I suggest is simple – A national campaign against the medical passports. Globalists, socialists and corporatists understand the concept of “pressure” and how to apply it to get what they want. I believe we must also learn how to wield pressure in the opposite direction. It is not enough to sit in our homes isolated from each other content in the knowledge that millions of other people feel the same way we do. We must also take action.

  We must send a message: WE WILL NOT COMPLY!

  I’m not sure that any single person out there has the “clout” to drive this campaign alone, and it’s probably better that way. What is required is a mass movement united by principles, not a movement tangled together by a cult of personality.

  There are many ways to do this, from simple actions to more complex strategies. Any liberty activist can send a message through signs, bumper stickers, advertisements, billboards, etc., reminding the establishment that we will refuse to submit to the jab or the vaccine passports under any circumstances. They need to understand that there is nothing they can do that will make us change our minds. Nothing.

  The primary strategy of the covid cult has been to work with larger corporations to demand proof of vaccination (vaccine passports). We must let these companies know in no uncertain terms that we will cut off all consumer support for their businesses. We will not work for them and we will not give them a penny of our money. Instead, we will approach smaller local businesses, find out if they are a part of the ‘We Will Not Comply’ campaign, and if they are, then we will support them instead. It’s time to teach these corporations a lesson and put them out of commission by removing our money and our labor from their pockets.

  The next strategy by the establishment has been to mandate vaccinations for government workers. Again, mass walkouts are the answer. Let them sweat by losing half of their workforce. And then maybe take them to court. Bury them in lawsuits while strangling their ability to operate.

  Eventually, the Biden Administration is going to attempt federal level lockdowns and vaccine controls. It’s only a matter of time. This is where organization is vital. Counties and states with majority conservatives and liberty advocates must band together and once again say “We Will Not Comply”. If your state government is on board and defying Biden then that will be extra helpful, but do not make the mistake of assuming that state governments alone will protect you. You must be organized at a local level, with your community and local businesses ready to make a stand. This must start now, before it is too late.

  Finally, if the covid cult decides to pursue direct force as an option, we must be ready to fight back. Without local organization at minimum, defending ourselves will be difficult or impossible. This means bringing back an old standby of the Founding Fathers: The militia.

  There is a time for preparation and a time for taking risks. Without risk there can be no freedom. We are quickly approaching a time in which gamblers and true believers could decide the fate of the world for the next century. A grassroots and organic movement needs to be assembled to fight back against the rising tide of totalitarianism. Each of us can only do our own small part, but together, in concert, I believe we can stop medical tyranny and the Reset in its tracks and even reverse the damage done.

  I believe we are living here now at this crossroads for a reason. I believe we are meant to be here; that we are being given a chance to be the right people in the right place at the right time. I believe that we can end this evil, but only if we dare to try. It begins with one simple step: Telling the world “We Will Not Comply!”  And then, we must follow through on our promise.

  *  *  *

  If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 23:40

• Watch: Tourist's Close Call With Grizzly Bear Results In Federal Charges
  Watch: Tourist’s Close Call With Grizzly Bear Results In Federal Charges

  A dangerous close call incident involving a woman approaching grizzly bears in Yellowstone National Park has resulted in federal charges, given she violated laws and park policies for intentionally disturbing wildlife. 

  25-year-old Illinois resident Samantha Dehring was identified by federal prosecutors after video of the incident surfaced and gained attention through local media. US Attorney for the district of Wyoming Bob Murray announced this week that the tourist is charged with “one count of willfully remaining, approaching, and photographing wildlife within 100 yards and one count of feeding, touching, teasing, frightening, or intentionally disturbing wildlife.”

  

  Harrowing video which appears to have been taken by eyewitnesses from inside a nearby car showed Dehring approaching the grizzly and her cubs, before the mother bear briefly charged the woman. The bear halted the charge at the last moment, and a belatedly frightened Dehring only then backed off with camera in hand.

  “While other visitors slowly backed off and got into their vehicles, [Samantha] Dehring remained,” the US Attorney’s office said. Park rules require that tourists back off when wildlife appear. She reportedly came within 15 feet of the wild animals.

  Below is the statement of events from the federal prosecutor’s office: 

  According to the violation notices, Dehring was at Roaring Mountain in Yellowstone Nation Park on May 10, 2021, when visitors noticed a sow grizzly and her three cubs. While other visitors slowly backed off and got into their vehicles, Dehring remained. She continued to take pictures as the sow bluff charged her.

  Watch the moment the grizzly charged the woman…

  The daring woman who appears to be oblivious to how dangerous grizzlies are particularly when they feel their cubs are threatened got caught after “Witnesses took pictures and video of the incident which was shared with news outlets and eventually led to her identification,” according to the statement. She faces $10,000 in fines and possibly up to a year in prison for the incident which happened in May.

  According to National Park Service figures, 44 people have been attacked and injured by grizzly bears in the park since 1979, with eight deaths since the park’s opening in the late 19th century.

  “The risk is significantly lower for people who don’t leave developed areas or roadsides, and higher for anyone hiking in the backcountry,” the NPS has stated.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 23:20

• China Warns Biden Over New Taiwan Arms Sale To "Inalienable Chinese Territory"
  China Warns Biden Over New Taiwan Arms Sale To “Inalienable Chinese Territory”

  As expected Beijing has responded by warning Washington over Thursday’s announced next round of arms sales to Taiwan, which marks the first of the Biden administration, and is to include 40 self-propelled howitzers and 1,700 kits designed to convert projectiles into more precise GPS-guided munitions.

  The Chinese embassy slammed the US for “interfering in its internal affairs” and “sending wrong signals” towards an “inalienable part of the Chinese territory.” The statement further said that Biden’s new arms sale “severely jeopardizes China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” while also violating the One China policy.

  

  “China will resolutely take legitimate and necessary counter-measures in light of the development of the situation,” the embassy statement warned without elaborating further. 

  The contract by BAE Systems must first pass through congressional review, which is expected, and while it’s not a large number for a foreign country weapons systems sale at an estimated $750 million, the symbolism is huge nonetheless – signaling the seamless continuity of Trump-era arms sales.

  CNN earlier cited a State Department spokesperson, who said, “If concluded, this proposed sale will contribute to the modernization of Taiwan’s howitzer fleet, strengthening its self-defense capabilities to meet current and future threats.”

  Taiwan is seeking a strategy dubbed as establishing “fortress Taiwan” – building up enough advanced weaponry to blunt a direct Chinese assault – at least until bigger allies could be called in. The focus on modernizing the army’s howitzer fleet is geared toward that strategic goal.

  Meanwhile, rival military drills are kicking off in the South China Sea region as Taiwan tensions grow…

  This drill is clearly a response to LSGE 21 executed by US Indo-Pacific Command. The US wants to demonstrate it doesn’t fear fighting a war in the Indo-Pacific, while China’s response is we are not afraid of fighting a war in the South China Sea, where it is the real focal point. https://t.co/hJeXdS0XlC

  — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) August 4, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Last year after the Trump administration pushed forward an unprecedented seven major weapons systems sales to the democratic island, the South China Morning Post recently had warned of China’s ‘red lines’: “Unlike other areas of territorial contention, such as in the South China Sea, analysts say Beijing will show no flexibility on this issue and has not ruled out force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland,” it said at the time.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 23:20

• Lawyer: Capitol Cop Who Shot Ashli Babbitt "Ambushed" Her On Jan. 6 Without Warning
  Lawyer: Capitol Cop Who Shot Ashli Babbitt “Ambushed” Her On Jan. 6 Without Warning

  Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations.com,

  Kicking off the first hearing of the House Select Committee investigating the U.S. Capitol riot, Chairman Bennie Thompson, a Mississippi Democrat,  promised to fully investigate “the facts of what happened on Jan. 6,”  calling it “a scene of violence in the citadel of democracy.”

  

  Photos from Jan. 6 show Byrd “gunslinging like some cowboy,” the Babbitt family lawyer says. In this detail from the photo at top, the officer’s pistol is low at his side — pointed in the direction of other officers with their backs to him, finger apparently on the trigger.

  Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg News

  But over the next 3½ hours, he and other Democrats, along with their handpicked Republican panelists and police witnesses, never mentioned the most lethal act committed that day — the fatal Capitol Police shooting of unarmed protester Ashli Babbitt. It was the only shot fired during the entire riot.

  This omission angered Babbitt’s family and a number of Republicans who maintain that the Select Committee and the Capitol Police are covering up the circumstances surrounding her death. Questions linger over the shooting, especially whether the officer who fired the fatal shot warned Babbitt to stop before he opened fire as she attempted to breach a barricaded door inside the Capitol Building.

  The officer’s lawyer insists his client not only issued such a command, but did so loudly and clearly. However, in an interview with RealClearInvestigations, Babbitt family attorney Terry Roberts said he has gathered evidence indicating the officer, a plainclothes police lieutenant, remained silent. Far from warning Babbitt he would shoot, Roberts said the officer “ambushed” her from the side where she could not see he had taken up position in a hall doorway and had trained his weapon on her.

  “It’s not debatable,” said Roberts. “There was no warning.”

  

  Ashli Babbitt, shown with husband Aaron, was the victim of an ambush without warning, the family’s lawyer says.

  Facebook

  A Maryland personal-injury lawyer who specializes in police misconduct cases, Roberts has won several million dollars for victims of police brutality. He said he is preparing to file a wrongful-death lawsuit against the Capitol Police and the officer, seeking more than $10 million in damages.

  Babbitt, 35, was fatally wounded as she attempted to climb through the broken window above a door leading to the House chamber, where lawmakers were being evacuated. Standing to the side of a pile of furniture blocking the doors and out of Babbitt’s view, the officer took aim with his Glock service pistol, striking her in the left shoulder. Babbitt fell back from the doorway to the floor. She was transported to Washington Hospital Center, where she died from injuries sustained from the .40-caliber bullet wound.

  More than six months after the shooting, the U.S. Capitol Police still refuse to release the name of the officer. But several sources have identified him as Lt. Michael L. Byrd, a 53-year-old veteran of the force who was serving as commander of the House Chamber Section of the Capitol Police on Jan. 6. He has not returned to duty and remains on paid administrative leave. Attempts to reach Byrd were unsuccessful.

  

  From Ashli Babbitt’s left as she climbed through a broken window, the officer took aim with his Glock service pistol …

  nbcsandiego.com

  

  … striking her in the left shoulder. Babbitt fell back to the floor, fatally wounded.

  YouTube/National File

  Though Byrd appears to have been cleared of criminal wrongdoing, he may still be subject to civil action. If Babbitt was not given an opportunity to obey commands before she was shot, it could figure prominently in the family’s planned wrongful-death suit against the officer. Roberts said he has interviewed several witnesses who were standing outside the Speaker’s Lobby with Babbitt, and that they’ll testify they did not hear the officer issue “any kind of warning.”

  He also said video recordings his investigators have analyzed reveal that other police who were in the hallway with the officer did not react as expected before he fired. He said they seemed to be caught unaware as he opened fire. Roberts said he has lined up expert witnesses, including ex-cops and use-of-force experts, who will testify that the officers behind him in the Speaker’s Lobby would have taken cover or crouched and pulled their own weapons if they heard the lieutenant give repeated warnings he was going to shoot. Instead, Roberts said, they appeared to be casually standing or walking around in the lobby in the seconds leading up to the shooting.

  

  Terry Roberts, Babbitt family lawyer: If Byrd were giving a warning, why didn’t other officers present react?

  Roberts & Wood

  “Those other officers were within earshot. If he’s yelling, they certainly aren’t showing any reaction to it,” he said.

  “If he was giving any kind of warning, why didn’t they react?” Roberts added that no warnings can be heard coming from the officer in any videos taken at the scene.

  The officer’s lawyer, Mark Schamel, insists his client issued verbal commands and warnings to Babbitt.

  “He was screaming, ‘Stay back! Stay back! Don’t come in here!” Schamel said.

  Schamel said witness statements back him up. He explained the lieutenant’s commands were not picked up on video recordings because the footage was shot on the other side of the doors where dozens of rioters were shouting and banging and drowning out his words. And he said his client could not be seen yelling out the instructions because his mouth was covered by a mask he wore as part of COVID-19 protections.

  

  Mark Schamel, lawyer for shooting officer: “He was screaming, ‘Stay back! Stay back! Don’t come in here!’ ”

  Business Wire

  It’s not clear if this critical issue was resolved by the investigation of the shooting by the Justice Department, which concluded in April that “there is insufficient evidence to support a criminal prosecution” of the officer for “willfully” violating Babbitt’s civil rights, though it did not rule out the possibility he acted out of “panic” or “even poor judgment.” Justice investigators reportedly did not pursue murder or manslaughter charges.

  “They cleared him real fast,” U.S. Capitol Police Labor Committee Chairman Gus Papathanasiou said. “I was surprised.”

  “I’m not sure how he was justified shooting her when there was a SWAT team right behind her,” added a veteran Capitol officer, referring to three heavily armed USCP officers who had positioned themselves between the doors and the mob. “They saw no immediate threat.” The officer spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. A Capitol Police spokeswoman would not say if the officer’s actions were consistent with use-of-force policies, which are not publicly available. In a statement released earlier this month, however, USCP noted that it is “increasing its use-of-force … training.”

  Schamel said his client received his training primarily at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Centers in Glynco, Ga., where Capitol Police recruits spend about two months before coming back for another two months of agency-specific training. Although the FLETC training emphasizes use-of-force decisions through simulated-shooting exercises, Capitol Police officers are not trained for riot-control situations on the scale of Jan. 6.

  “We were trained in what to do if gunmen tried to storm the Capitol, but we were not trained in what to do if hundreds of people decided to rush the building,” former Capitol Police officer Patrick Skinner said. On Jan. 6, he added, police were unsure whether they were facing an imminent deadly threat or whether they were authorized to use deadly force.

  “There was only one incident of deadly force by a police officer,” Skinner noted. “Every instinct of those [other] police officers was to not shoot.”

  

  Rep. Bennie Thompson, right, a Mississippi Democrat, promised to fully investigate “the facts of what happened on Jan. 6.” But in his panel’s extensive opening hearing, there was no mention of the killing of Ashli Babbitt.

  AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, Pool

  A former federal inspector general told RealClearInvestigations that even the Capitol Police are relatively unprepared to react to the kind of threat posed on Jan. 6 in which a mob tried to beat down doors leading to the House chamber.

  “This is not meant pejoratively but just as a fact, but the [Capitol Police] is far from being some kind of elite law enforcement body,” the inspector general said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

  Its principal function is to assist tourists, maintain decorum in a tourist environment, and help out members of Congress and their staffs.”

  Roberts said as part of the discovery process, he plans to seek the shooting officer’s training records and his discipline file containing any infractions or complaints of misconduct. He noted that in February 2019, Byrd was investigated for leaving his department-issued Glock-22 firearm unattended in a restroom on the House side of the Capitol, even though the potent weapon, which fires .40-caliber rounds, has no manual safety to prevent unintended firing. The abandoned gun was discovered by another officer during a routine security sweep.

  A Capitol Police spokeswoman would not say what, if any, disciplinary actions were administered against the officer. Unlike other police forces, it does not have to disclose records on police misconduct.

  The Photo Evidence

  Also, Roberts said the officer appeared to lack trigger discipline, judging from photos taken by a freelance photographer inside the House chamber before the shooting down the hall in the Speaker’s Lobby. “He’s gunslinging like some cowboy,” the lawyer said.

  In one of the freelancer’s photos obtained by RCI,  the officer can be seen advancing toward the door of the chamber while several other law enforcement officers had taken position behind a barricade. His Glock-22 is slung low at his side pointed in the direction of the other officers, whose backs are to him, and his finger appears to be on the trigger.

  The veteran Capitol Police officer who spoke to RCI on the condition of anonymity said his colleague was not following department firearms training, which requires officers to keep their weapons pointed in a safe direction while making sure of what’s in front of and beyond a target, and to keep the finger off the trigger until ready to fire.

  “His trigger finger shouldn’t be inside the trigger guard and the gun shouldn’t be pointed at other officers. He’s even pointing it in the direction of a member of Congress,” the fellow officer said, referring to Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a former professional mixed-martial-arts fighter who had joined the scrum in front of the chamber doors.

  I can’t tell you how many officers have contacted me to say that what that guy did doesn’t pass muster,” Roberts said in an extensive interview. “No one has come forward to say this was justified homicide, not even the Justice Department.”

  “The way he did it — hiding in a room and then popping out and firing — is a problem,” Roberts added.

  “If his objective was to stop her, he didn’t need to shoot. He could have got out in front of her and used a number of other methods of less-lethal force. He could have tried to cuff her.”

  Police have confirmed that Babbitt, an Air Force veteran, was unarmed. (If arrested, she would have faced unlawful entry and disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds charges, police sources say.) “I would call what he did an ambush,” Roberts continued, “I don’t think he’s a good officer. I think he’s reckless.”

  While Roberts argued Babbitt did not pose a threat, the officer’s lawyer insisted that his client was acting to protect himself and lawmakers from “bodily harm.”

  

  Rep. Paul Gosar, Arizona Republican: He wants SWAT team members to testify in the House probe. “They were right next to her and saw no threat, certainly no lethal threat.”

  Jonathan Ernst/Pool via AP

  “He was acting within his training,” Schamel said.

  “Lethal force is appropriate if the situation puts you or others in fear of imminent bodily harm.”

  Added Schamel:

  “There should be a training video on how he handled that situation. What he did was unbelievable heroism.”

  Roberts argued that he could have retreated if he feared for his life, as other officers did that day — and later received medals for heroism — but Schamel countered that he was guarding a critical chokepoint and saved a “potential massacre of lawmakers and staff” by the mob.

  “The speaker may have been escorted out of the area, but there were still at least 100 people including lawmakers in the hallway behind my client,” Schamel said.

  Still, Republican lawmakers want to know why SWAT team members standing behind Babbitt before she was shot were not more alarmed.

  “They were right next to her and saw no threat, certainly no lethal threat,” said GOP Rep. Paul Gosar, who sits on the House Oversight Committee.

  He and other Republicans are demanding the Select Committee call the SWAT members to testify about what they heard and saw before the shooting.

  “Why were there no warnings given or escalation of command and force in proper law enforcement technique?” Gosar asked.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 23:00

• Paul Allen's 414-Foot Superyacht Sells For $278 Million 
  Paul Allen’s 414-Foot Superyacht Sells For $278 Million 

  A superyacht that belonged to late Microsoft Corp. co-founder Paul Allen has found a buyer in a red-hot yachting market. 

  According to Bloomberg, the 414-foot yacht, Octopus, sold for a whopping 235 million euros ($278 million) to an undisclosed buyer.

  

  Octopus has eight decks, two helipads, two elevators, a car garage, and an eight-person submarine. There’s enough room for 26 guests, and it also has space for 63 crew members. 

  Allen had the superyacht built in 2003 by German boatbuilder Lürssen for approximately $200 million. 

  

  The sale of the vessel comes as the world’s largest luxury boat market is on fire. 

  Ship appraisal company Vessels Value said 219 superyachts were sold in the first quarter of this year, more than double the number last year over the same period. 

  

  Octopus is the ideal explorer yacht, and there’s no word on where it will sail next or what flag it will be flying under new ownership. 

  The timing of the sale comes months after billionaire Jeff Bezos purchased a 417-foot yacht, or about three-foot bigger than Octopus. If it’s all about size, Bezos wins. 

  Billionaires are buying superyachts and private islands as everyone else is told they can’t travel. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 22:40

• "For The Sake Of The Kids" – Chicago Teachers Union Threatens No In-Person Education Due To "Immediate Threat" Of Delta
  “For The Sake Of The Kids” – Chicago Teachers Union Threatens No In-Person Education Due To “Immediate Threat” Of Delta

  Just hours after Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker issued a new ‘cruel and unusual’ mandate requiring all Illinois public school students to wear masks when they return to school later this month, the Chicago Teachers Union has issued a letter addressed to Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Chicago Public School officials, and members of the school board, warning that:

  “new pandemic variants pose immediate threats to the health of all Chicagoans, but especially our unvaccinated student population.” 

  In the letter, CTU praise the Governor’s new mask mandate, but said its

  “school communities need more than masking to ensure safety – especially as we continue to learn about the delta variant.” 

  CTU specifically listed recommendations for ensuring safety, among which was the maintenance of criteria and health metrics based on the prevalence of COVID “to pause in-person instruction.” 

  Full Letter below (emphasis ours)

  Dear Mayor Lightfoot, Dr. Torres, Mr. Swinney, President del Valle, Board of Education Members and CPS Bargaining Team:

  As we prepare for the start of the 2021-2022 school year, it is imperative that we acknowledge the changing dynamics of the COVID-19 virus and the importance of engagement with Chicago Public Schools families and communities. Since presenting our comprehensive proposal to Dr. Torres and the Chicago Board of Education on July 8, 2021, Chicago Teachers Union officers, counsel and rank-andfile educators have held a series of bargaining sessions with senior CPS management and legal representatives. We have made incremental progress, but with less than 30 days until the August 30, 2021, return to classes for our students, we must ensure that all stakeholders in our district are clear on plans and proposals for maximum safety in the upcoming year.

  To that end, we are inviting members of the CPS bargaining team, CPS leadership and the Chicago Board of Education to participate in an open bargaining session with Union educators and representatives on August 11, 2021. Chicago public school educators and families have long desired transparency in the negotiation process — well before the COVID-19 pandemic — and our Union believes that an open bargaining session is essential to improving trust between our district and the community it serves. This is especially important as new pandemic variants pose immediate threats to the health of all Chicagoans, but especially our unvaccinated student population.

  Parents are concerned, and they deserve assurances that our Union and the CPS team are working in lockstep to ensure safety in hundreds of school buildings across the city. For the past year, our Union has been consistent in our call for layered mitigations to keep educators, students and all families safe.

  While we applaud Gov. J.B. Pritzker for his leadership regarding today’s forthcoming statewide mask mandate, which CPS has already adopted, our school communities need more than masking to ensure safety — especially as we continue to learn about the Delta variant.

  Also needed are:

  • Ventilation upgrades

  • A COVID-19 testing plan for vaccinated and unvaccinated members of our school communities

  • Maintenance of criteria and health metrics based on COVID prevalence to pause in-person instruction

  • Full-time contact tracers, nurses, social workers and counselors in every school building

  • A comprehensive home visit program to engage students and families in every school community

  Mayor Lightfoot, there is $4 billion in federal funding that you have to invest in our schools and communities — a once-in-a-generation opportunity to provide all of our students with the staff and services they deserve. Open bargaining will provide Chicago families insight into how the CPS budget will directly impact their children and schools, where we stand in negotiations today, and the gaps that must be closed before the fall return.

  Merely surviving the COVID-19 pandemic is not enough. Chicago Public Schools needs to earn the trust and confidence of families across the city, and by joining our Union team for open bargaining, we can reach that goal together.

  Please let us know as soon as possible if you are accepting of this invitation, and we look forward to continued negotiations regarding the safety and long-term success of our students and their families.

  So, it’s for the children, eh?

  Let’s look at some data!

  All of COVID’s key metrics have collapsed dramatically compared to their pre-vaccine peaks. Daily cases are down 80 percent compared to their November 2020 peak. Hospitalizations are down 84 percent. Most importantly, average daily COVID deaths are down to about ten a day, 95 percent lower than their peak in December of last year. Deaths have yet to show any real reaction to the increase in cases due to the Delta variant.

  

  

  And here’s the cases, hospitalization, and death data for kids (Aged 0-17)

  

  Source

  In case your super-zoom eyes are failing. Yes, ‘positive’ tests are higher (according to PCR tests), but there has still not been one death according to the official data of any child in Chicago from COVID and there are de minimus children being hospitalized (an average of less than 1 in the last 3 months).

  Having been busted providing the exact wording to CDC for their “guidance” for in-person teaching protocols, is there any reason to trust that CTU has anyone but themselves in mind when they proclaim 1) no mandatory vaccinations for teachers will be permitted, and now 2) in-person instruction is at risk because ‘we must protect the children’.

  From the sounds of that letter, it has sweet f**k all to do with childrens’ safety and entirely everything to do with the $4bn that Lightfoot has at her disposal.

  Disgusting!!

  

  As a reminder, Fox news reports that last week, American Federation of Teachers (AFT) President Randi Weingarten got pushback after suggesting that school reopenings this fall are not a done deal.

  “So the bottom line is, we’re going to keep kids safe, we’re going to keep our members safe, we’re going to try to open up schools, and we’re going to move through this political battlefield,” Weingarten said.

  Critics picked up on her comment about the reopening of schools because it sounded like backpedaling from when she argued in May that “we can and we must reopen schools in the fall.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 22:20

• "We Haven't Seen This In More Than 30 Years" – Shipping Rates From China To US Hit Record $20,000 With No Drop In Sight
  “We Haven’t Seen This In More Than 30 Years” – Shipping Rates From China To US Hit Record $20,000 With No Drop In Sight

  Those looking for signs of transitory inflation are advised to not look at the latest container data, which contrary to many commodities tracked by Wall Street, resolutely refuses to turn lower.

  

  Of course, regular readers are well aware of the hyperinflation in shipping rates as we have extensively covered this move in the past few months, as well as some more unique cases such as this one “More Container Ships Score “Astronomical” $100,000/Day Rates” but today Reuters readers are also learning that shipping rates from China to the United States have scaled fresh highs above $20,000 per 40-foot box as rising retailer orders ahead of the peak U.S. shopping season, adding strain to global supply chains.

  Having already scaled all time highs, the acceleration in Delta-variant COVID-19 outbreaks in several counties has added to the upward price pressure by slowing global container turnaround rates. Typhoons off China’s busy southern coast in late July and this week have also contributed to the crisis gripping the world’s most important method for moving everything from gym equipment and furniture to car parts and electronics.

  “These factors have turned global container shipping into a highly disrupted, under-supplied seller’s market, in which shipping companies can charge four to ten times the normal price to move cargoes,” said Philip Damas, Managing Director at maritime consultancy firm Drewry.

  “We have not seen this in shipping for more than 30 years,” he said, adding he expected the “extreme rates” to last until Chinese New Year in 2022.

  Here are some mindblowing numbers: the spot price per container on the China-U.S. East coast route – one of the world’s busiest container lanes – has climbed over 500% from a year ago to $20,804 this week, freight-tracking firm Freightos said. That compares to just under $11,000 on July 27 or about one week ago. The cost from China to the U.S. west coast is a little below $20,000, while the latest China-Europe rate is nearly $14,000, Freightos’ data shows. Ding Li, president of China’s port association, told Reuters the spike followed a rebound in COVID-19 cases in other countries, which has slowed turnover at some major foreign ports to around 7-8 days.

  The surging container rates have fed through to higher charter rates for container vessels, which has forced shipping firms to prioritize service on the most lucrative routes.

  “Ships can only be profitably operated in the trades where freight rates are higher, and that is why capacity is shifting mostly to the U.S.,” said Tan Hua Joo, executive consultant at research consultancy Alphaliner.

  Some shippers have also reduced volumes in less profitable routes, such as the transatlantic and intra-Asia, said Damas. “This means that rates on the latter are now increasing fast.”

  The rate surge is the latest reflection of disruptions since COVID-19 slammed the brakes on the global economy in early 2020 and triggered huge changes to the flows of goods and healthcare equipment around the world.

  “Every time you think you’ve come to an equilibrium, something happens that allows shipping lines to increase the price,” said Jason Chiang, Director at Ocean Shipping Consultants, noting the Suez canal blockage here in March had played a major role in allowing firms to hike rates.

  “There are new orders for shipping capacity, equal to almost 20% of existing capacity, but they will only come online in 2023, so we will not see any serious increase in supply for two years,” Chiang added.

  Then again, perhaps expectations that all will be resolved by the Chinese new year are overly optimistic. In “Shipping braces as China goes into lockdown mode” we read that most Chinese ports are now requiring a Covid test for all crew, with vessels forced to remain at anchor until negative results are confirmed, and/or requiring ships to quarantine for 14-28 days if they previously berthed in India or changed crew within 14 days of arriving. That spells further delays. After all, when Covid was detected at Yantian Port in late May, that key export hub cut its operations by 70% for most of June.

  Rabobank’s Micheal Every touched on this topic and underling some key points regarding shipping and the consequences for global markets:

  • Before this surge in shipping costs, most economists thought logistics were invisible, efficient, and of no interest. Like plumbing, you need it, but don’t let it dictate your plans for the day;
  • Those logistics assumptions were only possible because since 1945 the US Navy has kept global sea lanes open and safe for all maritime traffic. Pirates and hijacking get attention today because they are *rare* – but they did not used to be. Indeed, global sea lanes used to be carved up by empires for their preferred shipping and production, not open to all;
  • That paradigm starting to fray along with the rest of the post-WW2 global architecture;
  • Current price surges are due to massive supply-demand imbalances that are not going to go away any time soon;
  • But imagine shipping costs, and the broader implications, if we get maritime chaos in the Straits of Hormuz, around Suez, or in the South China Sea;
  • Building new maritime capacity from ship to port to warehouse to rail to truck to store to home to address our supply-demand imbalances is tied to the post-Covid economic geography: is it still a post-1945 open economy?; if not, where will things be made? We still don’t know, but we BRI vs. B3W is an example of how things are trending; and
  • In short, the ship of apolitical logistics has sailed. Just as ‘a conservative is a liberal who has been mugged’, so a ‘mercantilist is a free trader with squeezed supply chains’.

  As a result, Every argues that “markets are right to price for the risk-off of very low bond yields – if they are willing to look past the demand-destroying price surge that will precede that slump; and if they remain unsure about the map of the reflationary, more fragmented world that emerges afterwards.”

  Of course, at some point rates will need to reverse and this is what SocGen’s Albert Edwards touched on in his latest note, first noting the obviously namely that when it comes to shipping rates, “there is no inflationary parallel! The doubling of the commodity-led Baltic Dry Index since the outbreak of the pandemic last year is a mere blip compared to container shipping inflation – especially on the China-US West Coast route!”

  

  However, Edwards then asks what happens when this surge reverses, supply chains normalize, and all those backlogged containers finally reach their port of call. In addressing this question, Edwards points to a recent column by the FT’s John Dizard who discussed the potential for an old-fashioned inventory-led recession next year when the current bottlenecks affecting container shipping dissipate. All that “delayed stuff, when it finally lands where it is supposed to, looks as though it will create a big enough pile to trigger a bad inventory recession.… The supply chain practitioners I’ve been interviewing figure that the port backups, unavailable trucks, Covid-19 restrictions and unskilled warehouse staff will be more or less ironed out by Chinese New Year.”

  The SocGen strategist concludes that “if the FT’s Dizard is right, we should watch for a reversal of container prices as an indication that  normality is returning to the global supply chain. US domestic demand has run well ahead of restricted supply recently. But the current depleted inventory levels may be rising rapidly by Chinese New Year (February) – causing production to adjust sharply downwards.“

  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 22:00

• 1 Million US & Global Credit Card Numbers Dumped Online By "Russian-Speaking Criminal Organization"
  1 Million US & Global Credit Card Numbers Dumped Online By “Russian-Speaking Criminal Organization”

  Here we go again – CNBC is reporting a major breach and leaking of Americans’ data in a massive online dump via a “new Russian-speaking criminal organization”. 

  The credit card data of one million individuals, including Americans and account holders from other countries, was reportedly released to the Dark Web on Thursday, as first reported by CNBC’s senior Washington correspondent Eamon Javers:

  CNBC has learned that one million American and global credit card numbers have been released on the Dark Web today by a new Russian-speaking criminal organization. The group, calling itself “All World Cards” offered accounts to other crooks for *free* as an introductory offer.

  

  It comes after a series of major cybersecurity incidents over past months targeting sensitive American infrastructure – the most significant including the Solar Winds and Colonial pipeline hacks – were blamed on Russian criminal elements, with the further allegation and assumption by US officials that the Russian state is behind the intrusions.

  Though little is as yet known of Thursday’s online credit card dump, the data and card numbers of one million Americans and others would constitute an unusually large breach.

  “One million stolen credit cards is a large number – even for the Dark Web where large amounts of stolen credit card information have been available for sale for years,” CNBC’s Javers continued in his reporting. “Criminals will likely start using these stolen cards in coming days, so banks should see an impact soon.”

  Javers posted the following screen shot to Twitter:

  This analysis comes to us from CNBC consultants at the firm Q6, who obtained this English translation of the original Russian post that went up earlier today. pic.twitter.com/Pv2wZT9hob

  — Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) August 5, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  So it appears all that’s known so far is that the Dark Web post was written in Russian, which means little to nothing is actually as yet confirmed about the group or even individual behind the presumably stolen data.

  Yet we can expect the global headlines to very quickly suggest Russian intelligence links, adding fuel to Washington’s recent accusations that Putin is a major offender carrying out cyber intrusions on America and its infrastructure. Biden and Putin at their June 16 Geneva bilateral summit agreed to open dialogue toward cooperating on preventing such attacks, however, Biden recently issues a dire and alarming warning.

  Biden said in a speech late last month given during a visit to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) that foreign cyberattacks now run the risk of eventually leading to a “shooting war.”

  

  “You know, we’ve seen how cyber threats, including ransomware attacks, increasingly are able to cause damage and disruption to the real world,” Biden said in the July 27 address. “I think it’s more likely we’re going to end up — well, if we end up in a war, a real shooting war with a major power, it’s going to be as a consequence of a cyber breach of great consequence.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 21:40

• July Payrolls Preview: 1 Million Or Bust
  July Payrolls Preview: 1 Million Or Bust

  July’s jobs report will shape expectations of when the Fed will announce, and then start, the process of tapering its asset purchases. Accordingly, as Newsquawk notes, some analysts argue that “good data is bad for the prospects of continued policy accommodation” may be the play book traders reach for, while others suggest that many of the key debates will not be resolved with the release of the July jobs report, and therefore the event may be subject to the usual post-data knee-jerk reactions, but ultimately do little to materially shift expectations just yet – it may not be until December when a clear picture emerges on the progress that the labor market is making to meet the Fed’s “substantial” threshold.

  That said, whether he wanted to or not, Fed Governor Christopher Waller set up the market to expect a big payrolls print on Friday morning, when he said earlier this week that if July jobs report shows a gain of 1 million workers and there is close to another million next month, the labor force will have recovered 85% of the losses suffered during the pandemic setting up the stage for “substantial further progress” – as defined by Jerome Powell last week – and for a Jackson Hole taper announcement. And so, the whisper number on trading desks quick became 1 million if not a little big higher, even as the Wall Street consensus is somewhat lower, at 880K and just barely higher compared to last month’s nice, round 850K. Of course, being a “whisper number” means that while aspirational, few banks are willing to bet their reputation on its actually being met and of 70 forecasts, only 14 are calling for a 1MM+ print.

  One among them is Goldman, which almost went all-in with the 2nd highest forecast, projecting nonfarm payrolls rising 1,150k in July, above consensus of +870k.

  Coming just one day after ADP reported a catastrophic 330,000 private payrolls for July, the number sure was ballsy, so how did Goldman get to there? This is how Goldman’s Jan Hatzius justifies his outlier bogey:

  “Labor supply constraints eased further due to the wind-down of federal unemployment top-ups in some states and the addition of over 2 million youth job seekers in June and July.  Coupled with very strong labor demand and continued progress on vaccinations and reopening, we believe job growth picked up further in the month. We also note little impact on dining activity in response to the Delta variant, even in highly-impacted states.”

  And while Big Data employment measures tracked by Goldman were mixed in July (more below), continuing jobless claims declined significantly in states that are ending UI top-ups early (as noted before).

  

  Goldman also expects a roughly 150k boost from fewer end-of-year layoffs in the education sector, and notes that the nonfarm seasonal hurdle eases considerably in July.

  Other metrics forecast by Goldman are also quite impressive and would likely spark an immediate pro-taper response: the bank estimates a 0.4% drop in the unemployment rate to 5.5% (vs. consensus 5.7%), reflecting a strong household employment gain offset by a sizable rise in the participation rate. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% and +3.8% yoy, reflecting some continued wage pressures but mixed calendar effects (consensus is +0.3% and +3.9%.

  Goldman aside, here is a snapshot of what consensus thinks will happen tomorrow, courtesy of Newsquawk.

  • The consensus looks for 880k jobs to be added to the US economy in July, and if that is realized, it would still mean around 5.84 million fewer Americans employed vs pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.
  • The unemployment rate is seen declining to 5.7% from 5.9%, but more useful color will be provided by the participation rate (61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (last 9.8% vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), as well as the employment-population ratio (last 58% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic).
  • Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M taking the annual rate to 3.9% Y/Y, and these measures will be used by analysts to inform the debate on how persistent price pressures in the US are developing.

  The read from other labor market metrics calls for some caution:

  • ADP’s payrolls data disappointed to the downside, while weekly initial jobless and continuing claims data that usually coincide with the BLS survey window rose against expectations of a decline, perhaps relating to seasonal adjustment issues.
  • The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence said consumer assessments of the labor market were flat on the month, though consumers were more mixed about the short-term outlook.

  The Macro Focus: The key question for macro traders is when the Fed announces tapering of its asset purchases, the composition of tapering, how long the process will last, and the sequencing with eventual rate hikes. The FOMC’s statement now acknowledges that the economy continues to make progress towards its goals, and language around the pandemic was constructively tweaked. Chair Powell himself seemed little troubled by delta variant fears, noting that further waves of the pandemic were having a smaller economic impact as we learn to live with the virus. The July FOMC was consistent with the expectation that the Fed will provide a taper signal at the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (26-28th August), before an official announcement at either the September, November, or December FOMC meetings. This suggests that incoming data will likely dictate the pace of tapering, rather than the announcement itself; and given that Powell also said it was likely that the taper will conclude before the Committee begins lifting rates, these taper timeline expectations will subsequently shape lift-off expectations for the Federal Funds Rate target.

  Historical Context: The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is famed for being a platform where Fed officials signal upcoming policy shifts. But in 2013, there were no explicit taper hints; the outgoing Fed Chair Bernanke did not attend due to a “personal scheduling conflict,” although many speculated that he wanted to avoid stepping on the toes of his successor, who had not been announced. (NOTE: Jerome Powell was handed a four-year term as Fed Chair in February 2018; no decision has yet been made on whether he will continue). The FOMC officially announced a taper in December 2013 and implementation began in January 2014, configured so that purchases of MBS and Treasuries were both scaled-back by USD 5bln/month; the program was concluded in October 2014. Given that the pandemic is an unusual event, different from previous economic downturns, there are risks in extrapolating the 2013 normalization parameters to what we are seeing today. Indeed, at least one Fed official has expressed a desire that the future taper of asset purchases not be placed on ‘autopilot’, in order to give the Fed more flexibility in these uncertain times. It is also worth noting that there is just one jobs report before Jackson Hole, and two ahead of the Fed’s September meeting.

  Wages: Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% M/M, and the annual rate is likely to be lifted to 3.9% Y /Y from 3.6%, marking the third straight rise in the Y/Y metric from the 0.3% Y/Y seen in April. The Fed continues to frame the post-pandemic upside in consumer prices as ‘transitory’. Although there is building evidence that this surge in prices is likely temporary, and may already have peaked, this debate cannot be resolved until at least later this year, and perhaps into next. One element that has potential to derail the ‘transitory’ narrative is the extent to which higher prices result in workers’ demands for higher compensation, and how this impacts consumption patterns. Historically, higher wages usually occur with a lag to price rises, and are also typically accompanied by collective bargaining power or labor scarcity; although the former has diminished across the US in recent business cycles, there is building evidence for the latter. The emergence of persistent wage upside could stoke inflationary pressures, which could compel the Fed into a quicker pace of policy normalization down the line.

  Slack: The consensus looks for 880k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in July, with the pace picking up from the 850k added in June. From the period between March 2020 through June 2021, there were still around 6.76 mln fewer Americans in work vs pre-pandemic levels, judging by headline nonfarm payrolls growth (if the consensus is realised, this would fall to 5.84mln). The unemployment rate is seen falling to 5.7% in July from 5.9%, although this metric will be framed in the context of the participation rate (61.6% in the June report vs 63.2% pre-pandemic in February 2020) as well as the U6 measure of ‘underemployment’ (last 9.8% vs 7.0% pre-pandemic); additionally, some Fed officials are watching the employment-population ratio to judge the pace of slack erosion (last 58% vs 61.1% prepandemic). Enhanced USD 300/week unemployment benefits have already started to roll-off in some states, and the programme is set to expire in September; accordingly, a clearer picture of slack levels might not emerge until further jobs reports are published through the end of the year. More broadly, Chair Powell last week suggested that it would take ‘a couple of years’ for the US economy to reach maximum employment, and the Fed forecasts 3.5% unemployment by the end of 2023, although at least one member of the Committee has suggested full employment could be achieved in Summer 2022 (NOTE: The Fed’s economic projections are next updated at the September meeting).

  Recent Labor Market Metrics: ADP National Employment Report for July disappointed to the downside, showing 330k additions to the US labour market against an expected +695k; ADP itself noted that the US labor market recovery continued to exhibit uneven progress, but that was progress nonetheless, adding that the July data represented a marked slowdown from the pace of jobs growth seen in Q2. Jobless claims data for the week that usually coincides with the BLS survey period saw initial claims jump to 419k against expectations of a decline to 350k, while continuing claims rose a little to 3.269mln from 3.262mln (against an expectation of a fall to 3.196mln). Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics explained that seasonal adjustment difficulties caused by shifts in the timing and extent of the automakers’ annual retooling shutdowns from year-to-year may have driven the disappointment, and the overall trend still appeared to be falling. Markit’s flash composite PMI data for July said firms recorded a solid increase in employment, the level of outstanding business rose further in July as service providers struggled to keep up with incoming new business, and that Amid labor shortages and pressure on capacity, firms noted the lowest degree of optimism since February. The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence saw the differential between jobs ‘hard-to-get’ and jobs ‘plentiful’ widen to 44.4 from 43.5, although CB said consumers’ assessment of the labor market was relatively flat, and consumers were mixed about the short-term labor market outlook.

  Arguing for a better-than -expected jobs report:

  • Reopening. Despite the rebound in Covid infection rates, business restrictions have continued to ease, as illustrated by the further downtrend in Goldman’s Effective Lockdown Index during both June and July. Additionally, the change in the CDC mask recommendation occurred 10 days after the payroll survey week had ended (July 27). Reflecting this and continued progress on vaccination, restaurant seatings on OpenTable rebounded further to 94% of their 2019 levels during the July survey week, compared to 90% in May and 83% in April (respective survey weeks, see Exhibit 1). Goldman also notes continued strength in dining activity in states where the Delta variant is spreading more rapidly (seatings across Florida, Missouri, and Nevada are still above pre-crisis levels, see dotted line). US leisure and hospitality employment has lagged the spring pickup in dining activity, consistent with a drag from labor supply constraints in those months—and introducing scope for catch-up in the July report.

  

  • Seasonality. In April and May, reopening effects likely overlapped with normal seasonal hiring patterns, resulting in less-impressive job gains on a seasonally-adjusted basis. In normal times, many service industries ramp up operations in the spring ahead of peak-season demand. This year, however, firms in heavily-impacted industries may simply have been more focused on bringing back their pre-crisis permanent workforce than on expanding their businesses and adding temporary seasonal labor. Hiring subsequently picked up in June, and the July seasonal hurdle is sequentially easier than in each of the prior three months: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 1.1-1.2mn decline in employment, compared to +0.5mn over the previous three months.
  • Labor supply constraints. Goldman also expects less of a drag from labor supply constraints in tomorrow’s report, due to the mid-summer peak in the youth labor force and the wind-down of federal unemployment top-ups in some states. As shown in the left panel of Exhibit 2, 2¼ mn 16-24-year-olds typically join the labor force after the school year ends. This may have boosted July payroll growth if a higher proportion successfully found jobs due to strong demand for labor in lower-skilled occupations. According to the household survey, only 1.3mn of these potential jobseekers obtained employment in June. Youth employment typically rises by 500k in July, and any increase in excess of this number would represent a boost to seasonally-adjusted job growth. For example, if three-quarters of the remaining summer youth job-seekers find jobs, it would boost nonfarm payrolls by 750k non-seasonally adjusted and by roughly 250k seasonally adjusted.

  

  • Turning to the unemployment top-ups, the right panel indicates that the expiration of federal benefits in some states has also boosted labor supply. Federal benefits were partially or fully curtailed in half of US states (representing 29% of the outstanding job losses since the start of the pandemic) in June and early July. And encouragingly, continuing claims declined more quickly in these states (by roughly 150k relative to the trend in all other states in the July payroll month).
  • End-of-Year education layoffs. Goldman expects a boost from fewer end-of-year layoffs in the education sector (public and private) in tomorrow’s report. With education payrolls still depressed by 0.8mn relative to pre-crisis, many of the end-of-school-year layoffs that normally happen in July have already occurred this year. Goldman assume a similar employment change as in July 2020, which would boost seasonally adjusted payrolls by around 150k.
  • Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get— increased by 0.2pt to +44.4 in July and is now at its highest level since 2000. Additionally, job openings increased by 16k to a record high in May, according to the JOLTS report.
  • Employer surveys. The employment component of Goldman’s manufacturing survey tracker increased (+1.4pt to 59.1), as did the employment component of our services survey tracker (+0.5pt to 54.8), and both remain around early-2019 levels. Furthermore, the industry commentary of the ISM services report indicated the broadest employment gains in the recreation industry, with accommodation and food services second. The employment component of the GSAI edged down but to a still-elevated level (-1.2pt to 67.2).
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas decreased by 24% in July after increasing by 16% in June (mom, SA by GS). Layoffs were at the lowest level since 1993.

  Arguing for a weaker-than-expected report:

  • ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 330k in July, below consensus expectations for a 680k gain. While the ADP report was disappointing, Goldman expects a much larger gain in the BLS measure, for two reasons. First, the bank had expected the statistical inputs to the ADP model to be a large drag this month. Education seasonality unique to the BLS measure should boost tomorrow’s report relative to the ADP numbers.
  • Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the June and July survey weeks (see Exhibit 3). Only one of the five measures GS tracks indicates an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +1.2mn). However, Homebase—one of the more reliable indicators—is consistent with a large gain in payrolls (+0.9mn), and that any boost in the BLS measure from education seasonality will be additive to the underlying trend.

  

  • Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims edged down during the July payroll month, averaging 392k per week vs. 394k in June. Continuing claims also decreased, averaging 3,188k in July vs. 3,448k in June. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims remained roughly unchanged between the payroll survey weeks.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 21:20

• Victor Davis Hanson On The Democrats' Vaccine Weaponization
  Victor Davis Hanson On The Democrats’ Vaccine Weaponization

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com,

  The Biden Administration should look in the mirror before casting stones at others…

  

  It was always going to be Herculean to inoculate, with an untried vaccine, a multi-ethnic nation of 330 million, across a vast continent—in an era when the media routinely warps the daily news. 

  Some minorities understandably harbored distrust of prior government vaccination programs. 

  Nearly 40 million foreign residents in America are from countries where corrupt governments had long ago lost the trust of the population. 

  The anti-vaccination movement was distrustful of what the government said was safe—given the rush to produce previously untried mRNA inoculation methodologies. 

  Rural and inner-city poor were sometimes not so easily reached, much less persuaded. 

  Yet politics played the most obstructive role early on.

  Candidate Joe Biden talked grandly of reviving the World War II war production board.

  He deliberately omitted that it was Donald Trump who emulated FDR’s mobilization of private enterprise under government auspices. 

  Trump offered legal protections for companies to accelerate their research and development—in hopes that competition, profits, and public oversight would result in COVID-19 vaccinations just 10 months after the pandemic hit. 

  And it worked.

  Mostly safe and effective vaccinations were rolled out shortly after the election. Some 17 million were inoculated by the time of Joe Biden’s January 20 inauguration. 

  Yet Dr. Anthony Fauci, in the days when he still posed as a bipartisan professional, had dismissed the idea of any viable vaccination in the election year 2020. Joe Biden publicly doubted that Trump’s vaccination efforts would either work or be safe. 

  In a nationally televised debate, vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris shamefully said she would never be vaxxed with any shot associated with President Trump. All that proved disastrous messaging for an already skeptical nation. 

  Pfizer had promised a breakthrough vaccination announcement in late October on the eve of the election. Then it mysteriously went silent—only to suddenly announce its successful  vaccination, just a few days after the November 3 voting. 

  Joe Biden continued the politicization of the vaccination program by bizarrely and falsely declaring on CNN that there had been no vaccinations given until he entered office. Yet Biden himself was first vaccinated on December 21 on live television. 

  Soon Biden grandly promised that all those who were vaccinated would be safe from infection from the SARS‑CoV‑2 virus. And thus they could resume normal lives without masks, quarantines, or social distancing. 

  Those who refused vaccinations were almost immediately equated in the media to Trump supporters, reviving the Left’s clingers/deplorables/irredeemables/dregs/chumps narrative of uneducated, white, and idiotic resistance to government. 

  The truth was that apart from Asian Americans, whites were percentage-wise the most vaccinated of the population.

  Elites charged that backward southern states like Alabama and Mississippi were not just lagging in their inoculation rates, but endangering vaccinated Americans by resuscitating a now constantly mutating virus. 

  Again, in truth, low vaccination rates among African-American populations in the South were a chief but unspoken reason why majorities there were not inoculated.  

  Once the so-called Delta variant arrived in force in early summer, the government’s earlier assurances that the vaccinated were now free to resume a normal life lost credibility. Weekly confused and mixed messages followed—simultaneously both downplaying and exaggerating the efficacy of the vaccinations. 

  In reality, most who were vaccinated were almost assured that they would not become seriously ill from COVID-19, would likely not need hospitalization, and almost certainly would not die from it. 

  No matter. The media-government fusion now blame-gamed unvaccinated “super-spreaders” for sometimes infecting those already vaccinated—as if the over 100 million adults still not fully vaccinated were red-state rubes who packed honky-tonk bars and motorcycle rallies. 

  Yet the reality was quite different. 

  Last summer over 1,000 medical providers had given blanket exemptions solely to BLM protestors, dangerously to mass in the streets for weeks on end to demonstrate. 

  Currently, two million illegal aliens are scheduled to cross the southern border in the next year—with legal impunity, but without vaccinations, or COVID-19 tests, or lectures from Washington. 

  A recent breakout of COVID-19, among even the vaccinated in Provincetown, Massachusetts, was not due to alt-right Neanderthals. It was attributable to the annual gay pride celebrations where some thousands of partiers swarmed bars, clubs, restaurants, and hotels. 

  Former President Barack Obama was scheduled to host 500 guests and 200 staffers at his Martha’s Vineyard estate—when the government was again insisting masks be worn almost everywhere. 

  Don’t look to COVID-19 czar Dr. Fauci to clear things up.

  He has already confessed he had lied about masks and herd immunity—allegedly for the people’s own good.

  Fauci still denies he helped fund dangerous gain-of-function viral research at the Wuhan virology lab—at ground zero of the later coronavirus pandemic. 

  If the Biden Administration cannot vaccinate half of America, or assure vaccinated Americans that COVID-19 mutants won’t seriously hurt them or rekindle the earlier pandemic, then it might first look in the mirror before casting stones at others. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 21:00

• Israel Conducts Biggest Airstrikes On Lebanon Since 2006
  Israel Conducts Biggest Airstrikes On Lebanon Since 2006

  A rare, major cross-border exchange of fire between Israel and militants in Lebanon has flared-up on Wednesday into Thursday after three rockets were initially launched from southern Lebanon, which Israeli officials say struck inside Israeli territory, causing brush fires with some reports saying up to four injuries.

  The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) then hit back with artillery fire on the launch positions, followed by airstrikes, reportedly on Marjayoun district in the south. “Israel responded with several rounds of artillery fire on Wednesday before launching air strikes early on Thursday,” the military announced. The IDF later indicated it blanketed the target zone with over 100 artillery strikes.

  IDF airstrikes reportedly in #Lebanon. #Israel pic.twitter.com/WPK4LIa4vv

  — Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) August 4, 2021

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  “Fighter jets struck the launch sites and infrastructure used for terror in Lebanon from which the rockets were launched,” the IDF statement said.

  Israel also said it would hold the Lebanese government responsible for rocket fire out of the south, reminiscent of the 2006 war where Israel conducted airstrikes on Beirut for Hezbollah aggression. The Hill reports, “Avichai Adraee, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesman, blamed the Lebanese government for the tensions and cautioned that there would be more attacks on Israel from south Lebanon.”

  Video from the first moments after the rocket impact near Kiryat Shmona pic.twitter.com/qVXlEmv3iC

  — Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) August 4, 2021

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  Lebanese President Michel Aoun said the Israeli airstrikes were the first of their kind since 2006 (though it appears the last time was actually 2014). The IDF published footage of the overnight attack on Lebanon. President Aoun denounced the Israeli aggression and said he’ll take it to the United Nations: 

  Aoun stated that “Israel’s use of its air force to target Lebanese villages is the first of its kind since 2006, and suggests an intention to escalate attacks” against Lebanon. 

  “These attacks are a direct threat to security and stability in the south,” Aoun added.

  “What happened is a flagrant and dangerous violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and a direct threat to security and stability in the south,” Aoun said, referring to a 2006 UN motion that ended the war between Israel and Lebanon-based terrorists of Hezbollah. 

  IDF publishes footage of artillery strikes in southern Lebanon pic.twitter.com/HipdFAOVnh

  — Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) August 4, 2021

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  A top UN official is meanwhile urging “maximum restraint” by both sides as tensions soar. Hezbollah or an allied militant group is believed behind the rocket launch into Israel, but has remained silent in terms of a claim of responsibility.

  Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz on Thursday threatened there could be more to come in an interview: “This was an attack meant to send a message… Clearly we could do much more, and we hope we won’t arrive at that.”

  Israeli artillery now shelling the entire border with south Lebanon in response to shelling of Kiryat Shmona by 3 rockets from the Lebanese side hours ago. pic.twitter.com/ZAnOa3EDPo

  — 301🇦🇲 (@301_AD) August 4, 2021

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  Gantz’s words included heavy focus on Iran throughout the interview, and said Israel stands ready to attack the Islamic Republic if a “multi-front” conflict opens up, likely to include Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 20:40

• Quiet Roads In China Are Concern For Oil Markets
  Quiet Roads In China Are Concern For Oil Markets

  Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  Traffic congestion in Beijing has declined by 30 percent over the past week, and is falling in other parts of the country as well, as the spread of a new coronavirus variant gains traction, threatening the outlook for oil demand, Bloomberg reports.

  

  There have been multiple outbreaks across the country, and the situation remains uncertain, Vice-premier Sun Chunlan said earlier this week, as quoted by state news agency Xinhua.

  As with the previous outbreak, which China stifled with a complete lockdown, the rise in infections is affecting movement and, consequently, fuel use.

  “For those provinces and regions with severe cases, such as Jiangsu, we will see a hit in gasoline and diesel demand,” Bloomberg quoted one ICIS analyst as saying.

  

  Jet fuel demand will also suffer as the authorities suspend flights to stem the spread of the new coronavirus variant. Some bus, taxi, and ride-hailing services are also being suspended in some Chinese regions, adding to the negative effect on demand.

  “This round of infection could potentially wipe out 5% of short-term oil demand,” a researcher from CNPC’s Economics and Technology Research Institute told Bloomberg.

  A five-percent decline in oil demand will have a fast and sizeable effect on prices, especially as it couples with resurgence of the coronavirus in other key markets, notably the United States.

  Oil has already retreated from highs hit earlier this year on the strong demand rebound and supply constraints.

  At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at a little above $70 per barrel, down by some $6 since the end of July. West Texas Intermediate was trading at some $69 per barrel, down by about $5 since the start of the month.

  

  China’s fast action on curbing the spread of the virus would affect oil demand, but the effect is likely to be short-lived if the curb is successful. In fact, according to one analyst cited by Bloomberg, demand for fuels could rebound as soon as September.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 20:20

• Iran's New Hardline President Sworn In, Vows 'Resistance' To "Arrogant" West
  Iran’s New Hardline President Sworn In, Vows ‘Resistance’ To “Arrogant” West

  Hardline cleric and former head of the judiciary Ebrahim Raisi was officially sworn in as the new President of Iran in the country’s parliament in Tehran on Thursday. The heads of all major branches of government were in attendance, as well as top military officials during the televised ceremony, including representatives from over 80 countries, according to regional media. Hezbollah and Hamas representatives were also seen in attendance, ironically sitting just in front of a top EU official.

  Raisi won over 60% of the votes in the July national election, and is seen as a close ally of the Ayatollah. He said in his inaugural speech and transfer of power from the more ‘moderate’ Hassan Rouhani, who stepped down due to term limits, that “The policy of pressure and sanctions will not cause the nation of Iran to back down from following up on its legal rights.”

  

  However, his general ‘resistance’ message was coupled with allowing diplomacy with both the US and Saudi Arabia, in hopes that Washington will soon lift sanctions, also as stalled nuclear negotiations in Vienna are set to continue into their seventh round this month.

  “The sanctions must be lifted,” he emphasized. “We will support any diplomatic plan that supports this goal,” he said during the half-hour address.

  But then as The Times of Israel relates he also vowed expansion of Iranian influence in the region to protect and provide justice for the “oppressed”:

  “Wherever there is oppression and crime in the world, in the heart of Europe, in the US, Africa, Yemen, Syria, Palestine,” he said, his voice rising with emotion. “The message of the election was resistance against arrogant powers.”

  Wearing the traditional black turban that identifies him in the Shiite tradition as a direct descendant of Islam’s Prophet Muhammad, Raisi recited the oath of office with his right hand on the Quran.

  Iran’s Leader Ayatollah Khamenei officially declares Raisi as the country’s next president pic.twitter.com/BTCjgsycWJ

  — Reza Khaasteh (@Khaaasteh) August 3, 2021

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  And here’s how The Wall Street Journal presented the same remarks, strongly suggesting the 60-year old Raisi sees himself as having a mandate to pursue more hardline tactics:

  But Mr. Raisi also warned foreign countries against getting involved in regional disputes, saying his election win in June represented a demand from voters to push back against “the excessive demands of the arrogant and tyrannical powers of the world.”

  #Iran‘s media is having great fun with the deputy-secretary general of the EU’s External Action Service sitting in the row behind senior officials from Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and Hezbollah at Raisi’s inauguration today. pic.twitter.com/aIrYuuCfTM

  — Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) August 5, 2021

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  Raisi’s entering office this week comes as tensions over renewed tanker and “shadow wars” are on edge, given also Israel’s Defense Chief on Thursday said Israel’s military stands ‘ready’ to attack Iran in retaliation for acts of aggression on the high seas. “The world needs to deal with Iran, the region needs to deal with Iran, and Israel also needs to do its part in this situation,” he added in an interview with YNet news.

  Things are also heating up on the Israel-Lebanese border, where Israel responded with extensive artillery fire and airstrikes after a Wednesday rocket attack – likely fired from Hezbollah positions. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 20:00

• Vaccinations 'No Silver Bullet' – Aussie Senator Admits Restrictions Would Remain For Long Time
  Vaccinations ‘No Silver Bullet’ – Aussie Senator Admits Restrictions Would Remain For Long Time

  Authored by Daniel Yeng via The Epoch Times,

  Nationals Senator Matt Canavan has warned that vaccinations are no silver bullet for Australian society to return to normal and has called on political leaders to be “upfront” and tell Australians they need to “live with the virus.”

  

  Canavan made the comments on Aug. 4, in Parliament during the second reading of a new Bill to finance support payments to businesses.

  “It is past time as a nation that we in this place, of all people, be upfront with the Australian people and get rid of the fantasy and fairytales that we are continually trying to put the Australian people to sleep with,” he told the Senate.

  “We should front up to them with the facts and the reality of this terrible pandemic and what might happen in the next few years in this country regardless of what we do or how many people get vaccinated in the months ahead,” he added.

  On Aug. 3, the Doherty Institute held a press conference with Prime Minister Scott Morrison to outline the modelling used to underpin the federal government’s strategy for easing COVID restrictions via staged vaccination targets.

  The modelling (pdf) suggested that even if 80 percent of Australians were vaccinated – which according to the federal government’s plan would be when the international border restrictions were eased – in just 180 days, over 40,010 vaccinated Australians could become symptomatically infectious, with 439 potential deaths.

  A further, 238,991 unvaccinated Australians could also be infected, with 842 deaths.

  However, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has noted that the higher the vaccination rate was, the lower the infection and death rate.

  Senator Canavan said the “truth of the situation” was that restrictions would remain for the long term.

  “Those 280,000 coronavirus infections would be in a world where we still had a two-square-metre rule; they would be in a world, according to this modelling, where we would still have only 70 percent capacity at sporting stadiums,” he said.

  “It would be a world where we still had testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine.”

  “I’m pro-vaccine. But we cannot keep telling people the fantasy that we can solve all these problems,” he added.

  “If we don’t be upfront with the Australian people, we will not be able to get out of this, and we will continue these very cruel lockdowns, which are causing enormous costs on our economy and particularly on people.”

  The senator was also critical of the cost of lockdowns and said their effectiveness was questionable.

  Research from the Burnet Institute, another medical research body, estimated that recent lockdowns in Sydney, NSW helped avoid 4,000 infections. While investment fund AMP estimated the lockdowns were costing $150 million per day.

  “So, at the 35-day mark, the lockdowns had cost $5.3 billion to avoid 4,000 coronavirus cases,” he said.

  “We are spending $1.3 million to avoid each and every coronavirus case. That is $1.3 million for each case—not a fatality, not an admission to an ICU ward, but for each case.”

  “We do not apply that in any other public policy issue,” Canavan said.

  “Twenty-two thousand Australians a year die from smoking, 5,000 die from alcohol, and around 1,000 die on our roads. We do not ban these things; we live with them.”

  Currently, three states of Australia have parts that are enduring lockdown restrictions due to the low vaccination rates in Australia.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 19:40

• Biden DOJ Intervenes In Saudi Spymaster Case Over 'Damage To US National Security'
  Biden DOJ Intervenes In Saudi Spymaster Case Over ‘Damage To US National Security’

  The Biden Justice Department has made ‘the extremely rare move’ of intervening in a court case against a former top Saudi spymaster who fled the country and is currently locked in an international feud with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

  

  If the court case is allowed to proceed against Saad Aljabri – a former top Saudi counterterrorism official, it could lead to “the disclosure of information that could reasonably be expected to damage the national security of the United States,” according to CNN, citing a DOJ filing.

  Aljabri – a former long-time aide to Prince Mohammed bin Nayef (ousted by MbS as heir to the throne in a 2017 palace coup) – fled to Canada in 2017 after the Crown Prince’s ascension. In a civil suit against MbS filed in US federal court, Aljabri accused Bin Salman of sending agents to kill him in 2018.

  Conversely, a group of Saudi state-owned firms controlled by the prince filed a lawsuit in January accusing Aljabri of embezzling billions of dollars of state funds while working at the Mininstry of Interior. It’s this lawsuit that the Biden DOJ says could reveal ‘sensitive national security information.’

  Aljabri has denied the accusations, and accused the prince of sending the assassination squad, as well as holding two of his children hostage in Saudi Arabia.

  Aljabri has alleged that MBS made multiple attempts to lure him back to Saudi Arabia and said that the hit team sent to Canada was part of the same team that had killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi just days earlier.

   

  The group of Saudi companies that has brought the cases against Aljabri was, according to the Justice Department’s own filing, established “for the purpose of performing anti-terrorism activities.”

   

  The holding company, called Sakab, accuses Aljabri of defrauding them. In order to defend himself against the charges, the Justice Department says Aljabri intends “to describe and present evidence regarding alleged sensitive national security information.” -CNN

  “It’s definitely rare for such [Justice Department] filings to occur,” said former DOJ spokesman, Marc Raimondi.

  The classified information that could come to light includes ‘intelligence relationships, operations, classified sources and methods,’ according to a source familiar with the US intelligence apparatus. The revelations could also embarrass Obama-era officials, given the often “unseemly” nature of the intelligence world, the report continues.

  “It’s the right thing to do. You don’t want to disclose these things,” said CNN‘s source.

  By bringing the case against Aljabri in the United States, Saudi Arabia and its defacto ruler have put not only the US in a difficult position but prioritized the feud with Aljabri over the two countries’ relationship, the former government source said. The source added: “It appears to me a very personal vendetta that doesn’t have long term interests both for the kingdom and for the US and for intelligence cooperation in the future.”

  Last week, a bipartisan group of US Senators wrote to President Biden to defend Aljabri, pointing to his two decades of partnership with America, and imploring Biden to take action to help Aljabri’s imprisoned children, 22-year-old Omar and 21-year-old Sarah.

  

  “The Saudi government is believed to be using the children as leverage to blackmail their father and force his return to the kingdom from Canada, where he currently resides in fear of possible retribution for his previous support for a rival of Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad Bin Salmon [sic],” wrote the letter signed by Sens. Marco Rubio, Tim Kaine, Patrick Leahy and Ben Cardin.

  “The prolonged persecution of Dr. Aljabri and his family members has now evolved to risk the exposure of classified U.S. counter-terrorism projects,” the letter continues. “In light of these recent developments, we urge you and your administration to pursue an amicable resolution that secures the immediate release of Omar and Sarah and protects U.S. national security interests.”

  The DOJ’s Tuesday motion says that on top of its “weighty interest in intervening,” it’s contemplating invoking state secrets privilege – which would allow the US government to block information from being presented which could harm national security.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 19:20

• Howard Marks: "We Are In An Everything Bubble"
  Howard Marks: “We Are In An Everything Bubble”

  The otherwise subdued and very unhyperbolic Howard Marks caused quite a stir across trading desks (and perhaps the Marriner Eccles building) this afternoon, when speaking to Bloomberg’s Erik Shatzker, the Oaktree co-founder said what has been obvious to most – even if it carries high career risk in saying it in public – that “we’re in an everything bubble” adding that “I don’t say today, but let’s not miss the opportunity to let the rates float back up.”

  “The stock market is high and the S&P is at 4,400. Last March 2,200. Doubled. Prices are high. Real estate has come back. Certain sectors are very strong like infrastructure, real estate, distribution centers and so forth. We are in a low return world. The lowest returns we’ve ever seen prospectively.”

  Looking at his favorite Life Cycle of a market chart, Marks says that whereas normally the stock market and the economic cycles coincide, where the high in the stock market is close to the high in the economy and vice versa, today we have high stock prices and we are early in the economic cycle. “That’s unusual. You could say well this is bad because the recovery is nascent and stock prices are already high.”

  

  So what should happen? According to Marks, the Fed should “leave the markets alone”, and “remove the punch bowl somewhat” so that interest rates can be what the economy and participants want them to be, not what the Fed wants them to be. Reminding viewers that the Fed missed an opportunity to raise rates in 2018 – when the market drop dragged the Fed right back in – Marks says “let’s not miss the opportunity to let rates go back up”  and the Fed should not hold back out of fear of another “taper tantrum.”

  “It’s like with your kids. As a parent we can’t be afraid of our kids tantrums. The Fed can’t be afraid of investors’ tantrums. The Fed has to do the right thing for the economy. It’s job is not to make money for investors. And when the economy is strong you have to stop emergency measures and let rates go back up.”

  But far from concern about the soaring prices (courtesy of the Fed’s exploding balance sheet) that have made life for every middle-class American unbearable, his concern was for his fellow finance professions; to wit, pension funds and many other institutional investors rely on getting 7% returns every year, but that’s impossible when the federal funds rate is zero.

  Of course, running the most overlevered economy in history will be impossible when rates are 7% but by the time it comes crashing down, we are confident that Howard will be sitting on a beach far away, earning 7%.

  Today’s credit markets offer “the lowest return we’ve ever seen, prospectively,” Marks said. It is still possible to make more than investing in U.S. Treasuries, but that is getting harder. “It’s never been this unrewarding.”

  Actually, a few million Robinhooders will beg to differ: with no risk-free returns left in the market, it means that anyone hoping to generate any material alpha is forced into chasing meme stonks which is great as long as they go up, but catastrophic once they plunge as Robinhood did today following yesterday’s gamma squeeze. But yes, there is no disputing that the Fed has broken the market. Where our view differs with Howard’s, is that we are absolutely certain that it is now completely impossible to undo 12 years of Fed central planning and micromanagement of markets. Back in 2009 it may still have been feasible to extricate asset prices from monetary policy, but now it is too late.

  Where we agree is that he is of course, right: this is indeed an everything bubble, something we have been saying since inception.

  And indicatively, whereas one year ago there was $1 trillion in distressed debt last year, since then that number has plunged to just $124.7 billion, aided by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented steps to steady the markets economy.

  The full interview is below.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 19:00

• "I'm Not Trusting The Government" – New Yorkers Explain Why They Refuse To Get Vaxxed
  “I’m Not Trusting The Government” – New Yorkers Explain Why They Refuse To Get Vaxxed

  Despite $100 giveaways, offers of free hotel stays and home-delivered shots and a host of other incentives, millions of NYC residents still refuse to get the COVID vaccine. Since the reluctance and suspicion that many Americans feel about the vaccines continues to mystify the mainstream press, Bloomberg just published a story exploring the least vaccinated neighborhoods in NYC.

  

  Ironically, many of the least vaccinated neighborhoods are the same working-class neighborhoods that were hit the hardest by the pandemic (remember how lefties screeched abou minorites suffering the brunt of the pandemic while white people led the movement against lockdowns and masks?) Well, as it turns out,

  About 55% of the city’s total population is fully vaccinated. That’s roughly 400K people short of the city’s goal to fully inoculate 5MM by June. It also means more than 2MM eligible New Yorkers remain unvaccinated and vulnerable as the delta variant drives an uptick in reported cases.

  While residents of the most heavily vaccinated neighborhoods (which also happen to be the wealthiest, most gentrified neighborhoods) fled to the suburbs during the worst of the pandemic, millions of residents in the low-vax neighbors lived through it all: the overwhelmed hospitals, the non-stop sirens during the spring and summer of 2020.

  The biggest holdouts are mostly Black and Orthodox Jewish communities in the outer boroughs, where 17 ZIP codes have vaccination rates of 40% or less. That includes the Brooklyn neighborhoods of Bedford-Stuyvesant, Midwood, Canarsie, Ocean-Hill-Brownsville, Crown Heights and Borough Park. Participation rates have also lagged in politically conservative areas of Staten Island. In Far Rockaway, all three groups predominate. In some cases, those areas have lower vaccination rates than Mississippi.

  Despite everything they have been through, they remain reluctant to accept the vaccines. For some, the motivation is religious (the Orthodox Jewish community’s resistance to vaccines helped lead to a revival of the measles before COVID made a comeback).

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Aside from religious reasons, why are denizens of these neighborhoods so reluctant to get vaccinated? Bloomberg claims it’s a combination of mistrust, misinformation and – in some cases – access.

  Black New Yorkers are the least vaccinated group, with a 31% participation rate. Asian New Yorkers, meanwhile, have the highest at 71%.
  Among Black Americans in general, there’s a deep distrust of the government and pharmaceutical companies.

  “We’re raised with the skepticism of the government when it comes to vaccines,” said Henry Butler, district manager for the community board in Bedford-Stuyvesant, which at 36% has the second lowest vaccination rate. “As Black Americans we know our history of medical exploitation and disparity of care.”

  Last week, the city brought back a mobile vaccination site in the heart of Butler’s district, which according to the U.S. Census is 72% Black and 15% Hispanic.

  The site gave out 39 shots last Friday, the start of the city’s $100-cash incentive — 12 more than the previous day, but only about four per hour.

  “I’m not trusting the government, to be honest,” said Tony Rome, 61, one of dozens who walked past the mobile site that day. He also singled out Johnson & Johnson, which faces lawsuits alleging that its talcum powder can cause cancer. The company’s vaccine was linked to rare instances of blood clots.

  “There’s not enough information about its long-lasting effects,” said Rome.

  

  Jake Sargent, a spokesperson for J&J, said clinical trials have demonstrated “the efficacy of the J&J single-shot COVID-19 vaccine, including against viral variants that are highly prevalent” and that the results are consistent across demographics.The city has tried using trusted members of the community to promote the vaccines’ effectiveness and safety.

  The Bethany Baptist Church in Bedford-Stuyvesant served as a vaccine site earlier this year, giving out 300 shots. Adolphus Lacey, the church’s pastor, said he promotes the vaccine to his congregation during Sunday services but doesn’t force the issue.

  “It’s frustrating because you don’t want to insult their intelligence,” he said. “People don’t like to be shamed. I want to respect them. So you create the space for them to be honest about what they fear.”

  Misinformation

  At the United Methodist Center food pantry in Far Rockaway last week, Adebanji Adedipe, 64, a Nigerian immigrant, was one of two people waiting to be served lunch who said he wasn’t vaccinated. He said he’s been told the shot could cause impotence, heart failure, paralysis and mental problems.

  No matter how much a health educator tried to persuade him that the vaccine is safe, Adedipe said he remained skeptical. When asked where he got his information, he said he heard it from friends. “I read it on Facebook, so I’m confused.”

  In the Orthodox Jewish community, which was hit hard by the virus last year, there’s a fear that the vaccine can cause infertility, according to Alisa Minkin, a pediatrician on a Covid-19 task force organized by the Jewish Orthodox Women’s Medical Association.
  

  Some who recovered from Covid believe they have immunity and don’t need the shot. Others are concerned about mRNA technology, the vaccine’s quick development and its emergency approval rather than full approval from the FDA.

  “A lot of people in this community are very savvy,” said Minkin. “But they’re not trusting.”

  To make matters worse, some Orthodox Jews felt unfairly singled out when Governor Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio called out wedding parties, funerals and other gatherings held during the height of the pandemic.

  “They felt very targeted,” said Minkin. “That flares up distrust even more.”

  That has hindered vaccinations, said Nesha Abramson, director of community health outreach at Vaad Refuah, a community organization in Midwood, where the vaccination rate is 38%.

  “We need to stop treating folks who are hesitant as ‘out there’ and nuts,” she said.

  The Last Mile

  Scheduling, logistics and accessibility are the other keys to reaching more New Yorkers. Sometimes it’s a matter of a mobile vaccination site sitting in the same place for more than a day. Other times, it’s ensuring that vaccine information is translated into other languages.

  The city says it’s spent more than $60 million on advertising and promoting the vaccine on subways, television and radio.

  Even the city’s recent $100 incentive had its hiccups. At a vaccination site at the Mosholu Library in the Bronx, an area where about 44% are fully vaccinated, some people showed up expecting cash or a gift card. They were disappointed to have to register for a pre-paid debit card online, said Nikki Edwards, a nurse who has given hundreds of shots as part of the city’s vaccine program.

  “It actually discouraged people to the point where they don’t take the vaccine,” she said Saturday. “Elderly people don’t have time or sophistication to access it and young people want the money now. Several families showed up with kids as young as 12 and protested when they heard you have to be 18 to get the money.”

  Still, there are signs that more people are getting on board with vaccination. On Friday, the day after the $100 incentive was announced, 14,370 New Yorkers got their first dose — the most since June 4.

  For others, money won’t be the motivator. Starting Aug. 16, New Yorkers will be required to present proof of vaccination for indoor activities including dining, working out at the gym and seeing shows.

  “The last miles are often the hardest,” said Chokshi. “Some people who may be a ‘no’ today will see everyone else getting vaccinated. Maybe their place of employment will require it. Maybe some of their daily activities will require proof of vaccination, and we’ll get to more and more.”

  * * *

  Source: Bloomberg

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 18:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• A Minute On The Internet In 2021
  A Minute On The Internet In 2021

  The digital world is a universe in its own right and a very fast moving one at that. Myriads of downloads and uploads, posts and searches, messages sent and received, listens and streams happen every minute on the world wide web.

  According to data compiled by Lori Lewis and published on the site AllAccess, Statista’s Claire Jenik notes that 60 seconds on the web in 2021 consist of more than 500 hours of content uploaded on YouTube, 695,000 stories shared on Instagram and nearly 70 million messages sent via WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  That same internet minute also contains more than two million swipes on Tinder as well as an incredible 1.6 million U.S. dollars spent online.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 02:45

• Spain Complains To EU Over Soaring Cost Of Electricity; But Guess What…
  Spain Complains To EU Over Soaring Cost Of Electricity; But Guess What…

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  Spanish consumers are fretting over record-high power prices just as high summer temperatures are keeping air conditioning and cooling systems operating at full capacity. Why are Spain’s prices so high?

  

  Record High Prices 

  The Independent reports Record-High Electricity Bills Draw Criticism to Spain’s Gov’t.

  The government says that the latest hikes in electricity bills are driven by spiraling prices of so-called carbon certificates, which give companies the right to release carbon dioxide, gas imports that Spain needs to complete its energy mix, and the surging power demand of the summer months.

  In the latest effort to rein in prices, lawmakers were voting Wednesday on whether to uphold the government’s move last month to cut the value-added tax on most households’ electricity bills from 21% to 10% until the end of this year and to scrap a 7% tax on power generation for at least three months. Utility companies pass on the cost of that tax to their customers.

  Facua, one of Spain’s biggest consumer rights platforms, said that Spaniards will see on average a 35% hike on their July electricity bill compared to the same month in 2020. The increase comes at a time when many households are grappling with the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.

  Environment Minister Teresa Ribera said that she had written a letter to the EU’s executive branch stressing the need to reform the bloc’s electricity market, but warned that the upward trend in prices was likely to continue in the coming months.

  Spain Urges EU to Act on Soaring Energy Prices

  The Financial Times reports Spain Urges EU to Act on Soaring Energy Prices.

  In an interview with the Financial Times, Teresa Ribera, Spain’s deputy prime minister for the environment, suggested that high prices and charges could provoke a backlash against carbon-cutting initiatives, with Spain in the “eye of the hurricane”. 

  Please Iron at at 2:00AM

  In addition to complaining to the EU the Energy Department Has Suggestions like iron and cook at night.

  The Facua-Consumers in Action organization claims that asking customers to use their appliances at night is “degrading” for the most vulnerable consumers.

  “You can’t make the consumer responsible for their bill being high just because they haven’t done the ironing or put their appliances on during the cheapest periods,” Facua states.

  “These times coincide with when people should be getting some rest.”

  Why Are Spain’s Bills the Highest in the EU?

  Spain currently counts on renewable energy sources for nearly 50% of its supply. 

  Guess what happens when you depend on unreliable sources? 

  Greens Demand More Clean Energy 

  But hey, the EU wants more clean energy. 

  Specifically, the EU seeks an energy tax that would drive up the costs of basically everything. 

  Sink America Plan

  The Socialists and Greens in the US latched on to that idea. 

  On July 15, I commented The Greens Hijack Biden’s $3.5 Trillion Budget Proposal 

  On July 30, Arizona Senator Krysten Sinema expressed concerns over the plan to which AOC said “No Climate, No Deal”. 

  That is the preferred outcome of those with an ounce of common sense.

  Previously, I proposed labeling the plan the Stagflation Guarantee Act of 2021.

  However, that name is not catchy enough.

  “Sink America Plan” is a better name for this proposed boondoggle.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/05/2021 – 02:00

• Farewell To Yet Another Failed Monetary System
  Farewell To Yet Another Failed Monetary System

  Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

  The beginning of the end of the current monetary system started exactly 50 years ago. In the next few years the world will experience the end of the end of another failed experiment of unlimited debt creation and fake fiat money.

  Economic history tells us that we need to focus on two areas to understand where the  economy is going – INFLATION AND THE CURRENCY.

  

  These two areas are now indicating that the world is in for a major shock. Very few investors expect inflation to become a real problem but instead believe interest rates will be subdued. And no one expects the dollar or any major currency to collapse.

  But in the last two years money supply growth has been exponential with for example M1 in the US growing at an annual rate of 126%!  

  Von Mises defined inflation as an increase in money supply. The world has seen explosive growth in credit and money supply since 1971 and now we are seeing hyperinflationary increases.

  

  Hyperinflation is a currency event. Just since 2000 most currencies have lost 80-85% of their value. And since 1971 they have all lost 96-99%. The race to the bottom and to hyperinflation is now on.

  As I will explain in this article, history is telling us that the explosion of credit and money supply will lead to rapid increases in inflation and interest rates and an even faster fall of the US dollar.

  When it comes to monetary events, inflation and the currency are totally interdependent.

  Normally an economy will be sound when the currency is sound. And the currency is sound when the economy is sound.

  Sounds pretty simple doesn’t it. But then why has no currency ever survived in history? And why has every economy collapsed when the currency has collapsed?

  ECONOMIC & MONETARY CHAOS IS THE RULE RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION

  For anyone who has thoroughly studied economic history, monetary chaos never comes as a surprise.

  As long as there has been any kind of money or monetary system, chaos has always followed at regular intervals.

  Without chaos there cannot be order. That is the inevitable consequence of economic cycles. But when governments and central banks interfere in the natural cycles of ebb and flow, the world is more likely to have disorder even in the good times and chaos in the bad times.  Thus government interference and manipulation distort natural cycles.

  So “Doing God’s Work”, as Blankfein, a former Chairman of Goldman Sachs stated in 2009, is likely to lead to constant disorder and chaos.

  Cycles, whether they are economic or climate, are normally self-regulating. “Doing god’s work”, whether it involves trying to lower the earth’s temperature or creating fake money, is more likely to create chaos than order.

  In ancient Greece, Chaos was originally thought of as the abyss or emptiness that existed before things came into being.

  In economic history, chaos is a regular phenomenon. Since no currency has ever survived in history, it follows that the demise of a country’s money is always linked to chaos.

  50 YEARS SINCE THE LATEST MONETARY CHAOS STARTED

  On August 15, 2021, there is exactly 50 years since the beginning of the end of the current monetary system.

  Richard Nixon was the unfortunate executor of the inevitable fall of the dollar and the collapse of the US and most probably global economy. As I outlined in my recent article The Dollars Final Crash Down A Golden Matterhorn, we cannot really blame Nixon for the destruction of the dollar.

  Profligate spending and monetary discipline are the worst of enemies. For a politician, the mere thought of frugality would never enter their mind.

  In order to please the people and either avoid a revolution or the risk of not being reelected, a leader will always choose the easy way out which is creating debt and printing money.

  Thus Nixon was in no way unique in going from a gold backed currency to printing whatever fake money was required to continue the illusion of prosperity. As history tells,  this is an event that has taken place throughout history at an amazing frequency.

  THE PETRODOLLAR HAS DELAYED THE DOLLAR’S TOTAL COLLAPSE

  The risk of the dollar collapsing without gold backing was major but Tricky Dick (Nixon) together with his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had a clever, albeit temporary, remedy for that problem.

  They offered Saudi Arabia military protection with the Saudis agreeing to sell all oil in dollars globally. The US would also sell/give Saudi Arabia major quantities of military equipment.

  So that was the start of the Petrodollar which has temporarily protected the US dollar currency from crashing to Zero.

  But Nixon’s promise to the American people 50 years ago on August 15, 1971 that “Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow” hasn’t quite held true to say the least.

  Yes, one dollar is still one dollar. But in purchasing power terms it is only worth 2 cents today compared to 1971. So in half a century, the dollar has lost 98% of its value compared to real money i.e. GOLD.

  But the real collapse of the dollar has not started yet in spite of the 98% fall since 1971.

  US MONEY SUPPLY IS GROWING EXPONENTIALLY

  Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2006-9, there has been an exponential growth in US Money Supply.

  Looking at US M1 money supply, the graph below shows how it grew from $220 billion in August 1971 to $19.3 trillion today.

  

  From 1971 to 2011 the growth seems modest at a compound annual growth (CAGR) of 6%. If the dollar purchasing power declined by the same rate, it would lead to prices  doubling every 12 years. Or put in other terms, the value of the currency on average would drop by 50% every 12 years.

  Then from 2011 when Money supply started growing in earnest, M1 has grown by 24% annually.  This means that prices in theory should double every 3 years.

  Finally, from August 2019 to August 2021 M1 has gone up by 126% a year. If that was translated to the purchasing power of the dollar it would lead to prices doubling every 7 months.

  ASSET INFLATION WILL TURN TO CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION

  Von Mises defined inflation as growth in money supply and not in prices. The Western world until now has experienced very little consumer price inflation. Instead the credit expansion has created exponential inflation in asset prices.

  I experienced how asset inflation in the UK in the late 1960s and early 1970s led to price inflation with the collapse of the UK stock market and the pound.

  I received my first options in the company I worked in 1972 at £1.27. Two years later they were worth 10 pence. The FT index went down by 2/3 and the pound lost 40% against the dollar between 1972 and 1976.

  Another remarkable move in the 1970s which I experienced was gold going form $35 in 1972 to $850 in 1980. In my view that exponential move will be dwarfed by what we will experience in the next few years.

  As the chart below shows, inflation in the UK went wild in the 1970s. I experienced the perfect combination of a collapsing currency and surging prices. The average inflation was around 15% for 6-7 years in the 70s. Mortgage rates went to levels that would make all borrowers bankrupt today. The interest rate on my first mortgage was 21%!

  As the graph shows, annual inflation was 1% for 171 years and has averaged 5.5% since then – a 5 x increase! We must thank Nixon for that!

  

  THE GOLD PRICE RISE HAS ONLY STARTED

  As I have pointed out in many articles, the gold price is currently not reflecting the massive debt expansion and money printing that the world has experienced, especially since 2006.

  The graph below tells the story. I am including it in many of my articles just to illustrate that gold at $1,800 in relation to US money supply is today as cheep as it was in 1971 at $35 and in 2000 at $300.

  Skillful but deceitful manipulation, through the issuing of uncovered paper gold, by the BIS and bullion banks has so far kept gold well below its intrinsic value, measured in dollars.

  The short term relationship between money supply and inflation is not straight forward but the long term effect on inflation is inevitable.

  So the fact that money supply is increasing much faster than the decline of the dollar is only a temporary disconnect.

  As money supply continues to grow exponentially, leading to chaos in the US as well as  in the global economy, we will soon see the dollar reaching the abyss as the Greeks defined chaos.

  The dollar has outstayed its usefulness as sound money and will soon be in the graveyard where every single currency in history has ended up.

  It would be very brave of anyone to doubt or deny the demise of the dollar.

  The dollar collapse into the abyss will happen. Take my word for it. Anyone betting against thousands of years of history would be a fool.

  Yes, I do know that the world is full of fools who believe that it is different today. But it never is. History has a 100% success record when it comes to the total destruction of every currency that has ever existed. I obviously exclude eternal money in the form of gold or silver.

  CRACK-UP-BOOM

  What we are seeing now is what von Mises called the Crack-up-Boom.

  Von Mises defined a crack-up-boom as:

  • The crash of the credit and monetary system due to continual credit expansion leading to unsustainable and rapid price increases or inflation.

  • The consequence would be “a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

  So I dare anyone to bet against a perfect history record as regards a currency collapses and the imminent demise of the dollar.

  The only question is how long it will take before the dollar loses another 98% from here. It has taken 50 years to lose the first 98% but losing another 98% or more from here is likely to go much faster. 

  It could take 5 years or maybe 10 but I fear that it could be very quick. History also tells us that once hyperinflation takes hold, it develops very quickly. It could all be over in 2-3 years.

  But although the collapse of the currency can be very quick, the effect on the economy and the financial system can last for years or even decades when, as in this case, we are dealing with a global explosion of debt.

  GOLD – SILVER AND WEALTH PRESERVATION

  In the coming collapse of the monetary system, wealth preservation will be critical. Physical gold and silver has a proven record in history as the ultimate form of wealth preservation.

  Measured in collapsing paper money, gold and silver will reach unthinkable levels.

  In the next 5-10 years, precious metals will vastly outperform all asset classes in real terms.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 23:40

• Biden Approves First Taiwan Arms Sale Of Presidency, Ratcheting China Tensions Further
  Biden Approves First Taiwan Arms Sale Of Presidency, Ratcheting China Tensions Further

  After a series of US-backed arms sales packages to Taiwan during Trump’s last year in office, severely ratcheting tensions to where they are now, President Biden’s administration on Wednesday approved its first arms sale to the island claimed by China. 

  Bloomberg is describing the potential $750 million deal as including 40 new M109 self-propelled howitzers, essentially a highly maneuverable tank-like military vehicle with a giant gun, and some 1,700 kits designed to convert projectiles into more precise GPS-guided munitions.

  

  The contract by BAE Systems must first pass through congressional review, which is expected, and while it’s not a large number for a foreign country sale at less than one billion dollars in weaponry, the symbolism is huge and will be seen as a provocation surely to be loudly denounced by China.

  The howitzer and kit conversion sale is seen as geared toward improving the Taiwanese army’s ability to repel a potential Chinese land invasion, based on similar equipment that the US Army currently possess.

  According to commentary featured in Bloomberg by the influential US-Taiwan Business Council:

  The proposal “serves as a timely reminder of the close national security partnership between the United States and Taiwan,” as China is now violating Taiwan’s air defense identification zone “on a near-daily basis,” said Rupert J. Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council. “We also hope to see additional offers from the Biden administration of new capabilities to Taiwan to both help expand its current military posture and to continue improving its multilayered self-defense capacity.”

  Indeed those PLA aerial incursions have only grown during the Biden administration, in part to ‘answer’ the Biden Pentagon’s own monthly warship sail-throughs of the contested Taiwan Strait.

  Taiwan is seeking a strategy dubbed as establishing “fortress Taiwan” – building up enough advanced weaponry to blunt a direct Chinese assault – at least until bigger allies could be called in. Last year after the Trump administration pushed forward an unprecedented seven major weapons systems sales to the democratic island, the South China Morning Post recently had warned of China’s ‘red lines’: “Unlike other areas of territorial contention, such as in the South China Sea, analysts say Beijing will show no flexibility on this issue and has not ruled out force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland,” it said at the time.

  

  Beijing considers US weapons sales a flagrant violation of the longstanding ‘One China’ policy and has in the recent past charged Washington with intentionally destabilizing the region.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 23:20

• Russia Developing New X-95 Air-Launched Long-Range Hypersonic Missile
  Russia Developing New X-95 Air-Launched Long-Range Hypersonic Missile

  Via SouthFront.org,

  Russia is working hard and developing the latest air-launched X-95 long-range hypersonic missile, Colonel-General Vladimir Zarudnitsky, head of the military academy of the General Staff, said in an article for the Military Thought magazine.

  

  Zarudnitsky said that he considered dominance in the aerospace sphere to be the most important condition for the successful conduct of hostilities, and it can be ensured through the effective use of strike and fighter aircraft.

  “For these purposes, for the Aerospace Forces, new and modernized models of weapons, military and special equipment are being developed and adopted, such as the Tu-160M ​​strategic missile-carrying bomber; the Kinzhal aviation hypersonic missile system; long-range high-precision airborne weapons, in particular, the X-95 hypersonic missile,” Zarudnitsky said.

  An unnamed RIA Novosti source in the military-industrial complex also confirmed that the missile was being developed for use in the armament of the modernized Tu-22M3M long-range bomber, the modernized Tu-160M ​​strategic bomber and the Advanced Long-Range Aviation Complex. The interlocutor of the agency claims that “prototypes of the new product have already been tested from the air carrier.”

  According to Zarudnitsky, domination in the aerospace sphere is “the most important condition for the successful conduct of hostilities by land and sea groupings of troops.” In his opinion, it is necessary not only to produce and adopt new types of weapons, but also to develop “new forms of their use and methods of combat operations”, which will ensure the achievement of domination in the aerospace sphere.

  At the end of June, President Vladimir Putin announced that the Sarmat intercontinental missile and the Zircon hypersonic missile would soon enter service. He recalled that the Avangard and Dagger hypersonic complexes had already been put on alert.

  In addition, he added, unmanned aerial vehicles, over-the-horizon detection radars, anti-aircraft missile systems, and other state-of-the-art military equipment are being created.

  A source in the military-industrial complex told RIA Novosti that a new hypersonic missile is being developed for Tu-22M3M and Tu-160M ​​bombers, as well as for the Advanced Long-Range Aviation Complex (PAK DA).

  “Prototypes of the new product have already been tested from the air carrier,” Zarudnitsky said.

  In February, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the various hypersonic systems would become the backbone of Russia’s non-nuclear deterrent forces.

  Currently, the Russian Aerospace forces are carrying out experimental combat duty of the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which during tests reached a speed of Mach 10.

  Intra-fuselage hypersonic missiles are being developed for the fifth generation Su-57 fighter.

  The warships and submarines of the Navy are to be armed with the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile – on July 19 the frigate “Admiral Gorshkov” successfully test-fired such a projectile and successfully destroyed a ground target.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 23:00

• Broward County Public Schools "Pause" Proposed Mask Mandate After DeSantis Threatens To Cut Funding
  Broward County Public Schools “Pause” Proposed Mask Mandate After DeSantis Threatens To Cut Funding

  Update: Broward County schools on Aug. 3 again changed course on whether to comply with or defy an executive order by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis which prohibited schools from imposing mask mandates on students.

  In a written statement to The Epoch Times, the school board has not changed its policy but “paused it.”

  “In light of the governor’s executive order, the district is awaiting further guidance before rendering a decision on the mask mandate for the upcoming school year. At this time, the district’s face covering policy, which requires the use of masks in district schools and facilities, remains in place.”

  The School Board plans to discuss next steps at a special meeting on August 10.

  Dr. Vickie Cartwright, interim superintendent of Broward County schools is looking into the executive order further.

  “The school board is reviewing information and looking for language from our executive rules as a result of the governor’s executive order,” Cartwright said in a video statement.

  On July 30, the governor signed an executive order that protects parents’ right to make decisions regarding the masking of their children as a means of protecting them from COVID-19. A month earlier, he signed a bill that protected the parents’ “fundamental right” to make decisions for the upbringing, education, health care, or mental health of their minor children.

  “Many Florida schoolchildren have suffered under forced masking policies, and it is prudent to protect the ability of parents to make decisions regarding the wearing of masks by their children,” DeSantis said.

  *  *  *

  As we detailed earlier, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has had enough of the Covid hysteria.

  Aside from going on record and calling the lockdowns a “huge mistake” back in April of his year, DeSantis has done everything he can to try and turn over the power in his state to its citizens, and away from the government.

  The latest example of this comes this week, where DeSantis stood down Florida’s second largest school district that was attempting to impose a mask mandate. In response, DeSantis threatened to withhold funding from the district. 

  “Broward County Public Schools announced last week that it would require mask use after the CDC issued new guidance recommending universal indoor masking for all teachers, staff, students and visitors to K-12 schools this incoming school year, regardless of vaccination status,” Axios reported this week.

  DeSantis had issued an executive order last Friday barring schools from requiring masks when school re-opens next month. His order read that “if the State Board of Education determines that a district school board is unwilling or unable to comply with the law, the State Board shall have the authority to, among other things, withhold the transfer of state funds, discretionary grant funds … and declare the school district ineligible for competitive grants.”

  

  And that’s exactly what DeSantis threatened to do before Broward County Public Schools backed down, releasing a statement on Monday that said: “Broward County Public Schools intends to comply with the governor’s latest executive order.”

  The statement continued: “Safety remains our highest priority. The district will advocate for all eligible students and staff to receive vaccines and strongly encourage masks to be worn by everyone in schools.”

  DeSantis also spoke at a press conference this week, stating: “Even among a lot of positive tests, you are seeing much less mortality that you did year-over-year. Would I rather have 5,000 cases among 20-year-olds or 500 cases among seniors? I would rather have the younger.”

  “We are not shutting down. We are going to have schools open. We are protecting every Floridian’s job in this state. We are protecting people’s small businesses. These interventions have failed time and time again throughout this pandemic, not just in the United States but abroad.”

  As we noted back in April, DeSantis told The Epoch Times that the lockdowns were a “huge mistake,” including in his own state.

  “We wanted to mitigate the damage. Now, in hindsight, the 15 days to slow the spread and the 30—it didn’t work,” DeSantis said.

  “We shouldn’t have gone down that road.”

  Florida’s lockdown order was notably less strict than some of the stay-at-home measures imposed in other states. Recreational activities like walking, biking, golf, and beachgoing were exempted while essential businesses were broadly defined.

  “Our economy kept going,” DeSantis said. “It was much different than what you saw in some of those lockdown states.”

  DeSantis has also opposed vaccine passports in Florida. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 22:40

• 1619 Project, Touted As Racial Reckoning, Ignores Democratic Party Racism
  1619 Project, Touted As Racial Reckoning, Ignores Democratic Party Racism

  Authored by Mark Hemmingway via RealClearInvestigations (emphasis ours),

  Democrats who advanced a bill in June to remove statues of white supremacists from the U.S. Capitol ignored a central fact about those figures: All of them had been icons of their party, from Andrew Jackson’s adamantly pro-slavery vice president, John C. Calhoun, to North Carolina Gov. Charles B. Aycock, an architect of the white-supremacist campaign of 1898 that ushered in the era of Jim Crow.

  At a time when governments, sports teams, schools and other bastions of American society are rushing to expunge legacies of slavery or racism, this was another instance of the Democratic Party’s failure to acknowledge that it did more than any other institution in American life to preserve the “peculiar institution” — and later enforce Jim Crow-style apartheid in the Old South.

  “I think it’s absolutely fair to criticize the history of the Democrat Party when we’re literally changing the names of birds because they’re named after racists,” said Jarrett Stepman, author of “The War on History: The Conspiracy to Rewrite America’s Past,” referring to a new racism-cleansing push in, yes, ornithology.

  
  Democrats’ circumspection in the face of this trend is especially noteworthy because it comes at a time when they are criticizing Republican legislation to block the teaching of critical race theory on the ground that the GOP wants to whitewash American history. But one of the most noteworthy efforts to reframe American history in terms of race, the New York Times’ 1619 Project, virtually ignores the Democrat Party’s role in advancing and sustaining racism in the United States.

  Named after the year slaves from Africa were first brought to North America, the curated collection of essays on race in America presents even the most complex modern issues – from obesity and traffic jams to capitalism itself – as being primarily a consequence of America’s history of slavery and racial injustice. The 1619 Project has been widely adopted as an historical framework on the left despite criticism from eminent historians, being repudiated by the 1619 Project’s own fact-checkers, and mangling basic facts.

  Yet, in the essay texts, the Democratic Party is named only three times, in passing. The Republican Party, the political entity formed to fight slavery, also receives little mention. But when the GOP is mentioned, it is excoriated as the 21^st century heir to 19^th century racist ideology.

  For critics of the 1619 Project, the virtual omission of any discussion of the Democratic Party is not only galling but revealing. In their view, the goal of the 1619 Project is neither historical nor educational – it’s thoroughly political. “[1619 Project editor] Nikole Hannah-Jones has been explicit about saying that the point of her essay and the point of the 1619 Project more broadly is to get a reparations bill passed. So that’s a partisan objective,” says Lucas Morel, a professor at Washington and Lee University who has authored books on Abraham Lincoln and Ralph Ellison.

  Hannah-Jones did not respond to a request for comment, nor did Jake Silverstein, the editor of the Times Sunday magazine, where the essays originally appeared.

  

  Peter Wood, head of the National Association of Scholars and author of “1620: A Critical Response to the 1619 Project,” agrees that politics is a likely explanation for the 1619 Project’s significant analytical failing.

  “If you’re going to be leveraging this project in order to persuade Congress to pass legislation that would entail spending many billions of dollars giving money to the descendants of former slaves, then you need to court favor with the political party that is most likely to advance that agenda,” he says. “At least from Nikole Hannah-Jones’ perspective, I would think that the careful avoidance of casting shade on the Democratic Party fits with her longer-term agenda of extracting wealth from the American people and transferring it to a subset of American people who can prove they are descendants from slaves.”  

  Historians also note that applying the 1619 Project’s standards for evaluating historical racism could prove especially awkward for Democrats. “I think the history of the Democratic Party is even more problematic than anyone suggests, and the time period of its ‘criminality’ is very long indeed,” says historian Jay Cost, author of several books including “Spoiled Rotten: How the Politics of Patronage Corrupted the Once Noble Democratic Party and Now Threatens the American Republic” and a forthcoming biography of James Madison. 

  It would be difficult to overstate the Democratic Party’s enduring and baleful role in slavery and racism. Its origins in the 1820s are closely aligned with Martin Van Buren, Jackson’s second vice president and later president himself. Van Buren was a New York power broker whose efforts supporting slavery, partly in the name of preserving the union, earned him the moniker “a northern man with southern principles.”

  The Democratic southern states, such as Georgia, specifically criticized the anti-slavery policies of President Lincoln’s Republican Party in their declarations of succession in the Civil War. Even after the war, Cost notes, the Democratic Party’s “central purpose in the second half of the 19^th century was specifically to prevent civil rights legislation from being implemented.”

  In response to black Republicans being elected in Southern states during Reconstruction, it was Democrats who enacted poll taxes and literacy tests to suppress the black vote. A Democratic president, Woodrow Wilson, resegregated the federal work force in Washington and hosted a White House screening of D.W. Griffith’s egregiously racist, white supremacist “Birth of a Nation.” As late as 1952, the running mate of Democratic presidential candidate Adlai Stevenson, John Sparkman, was an open segregationist. A significantly higher percentage of congressional Republicans voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act than did congressional Democrats, and segregationists such as George Wallace were major figures in the Democratic Party until  the 1970s.  

  Even during President Obama’s tenure, Robert Byrd, a former Exalted Cyclops of his local KKK chapter, was one of the most powerful Democrats in the Senate.

  

  Remarkably, Bouie manages to explain reactionary politics in the South, from secession over Abraham Lincoln becoming President to “solid blocs of Southern lawmakers” and “reactionary white leaders” resisting federal regulation of their region up until the 1965 Voting Rights Act, all without mentioning it was the Democratic Party in control of those southern states. Bouie thinks that Republicans today are somehow the heirs of an institution that owes its defense and longevity in American history almost entirely to the historical Democratic Party. 

  He argues that “a homegrown ideology of reaction in the United States, inextricably tied to our system of slavery,” has outlived some but not all of its racist origins and concludes that today’s Republican opposition to Democratic policies “are clearly downstream of a style of extreme political combat that came to fruition in the defense of human bondage.”

  Morel observes this is a dubious argument, either as a matter of journalism or history, and “any objective reader, I don’t care what your political party is, would have to conclude it is a hit piece on the modern Republican Party.” Bouie did not respond to a request for comment.

  

  What Morel finds most alarming is that the Pulitzer Center, co-sponsor of “1619,” immediately turned the project into K-12 course materials now in use in thousands of classrooms. The study guide that accompanies Bouie’s essay asks students to answer the question: “According to the author, how do 19^th century U.S. political movements aimed at maintaining the right to enslave people manifest in contemporary political parties?”

  In a courtroom, that would be called leading the witness. Students given this curriculum are going to be expected to give only one correct answer, though that answer is more a matter of indoctrination than education. “Bouie identifies only one contemporary political party as the heir of 19th-century racist politics — namely, the Republican Party,” Morel writes. “By omitting the reactionary politics of the historical Democratic Party — for example, the ‘Massive Resistance’ to school desegregation in the 1950s — the only evidence presented in the essay implicates the Republican Party.”

  An honest accounting would acknowledge that contemporary racial issues have a complicated history that implicates both major parties. The problem, illustrated by the 1619 Project, is that the media and other increasingly left-leaning institutions are invested in historical narratives that help achieve specific political ends.

  Peter Wood suggests that the New York Times itself seems to have used the 1619 Project as part of the paper’s broader agenda to affect the outcome of the 2020 election. While the Times committed to doing the 1619 Project in January of 2019, Wood observes that “the hope of energizing the Democratic electorate to oppose Trump in the 2020 election” was one of the animating reasons the Times featured and promoted the 1619 Project so prominently.

  To that end, Wood notes the timing of the 1619 Project’s publication in August of 2019 came just one month after “the failure of the Mueller investigation to deliver the results that the Times eagerly anticipated (the 1619 Project was intended as part of what New York Times executive editor Dean Baquet called a ‘pivot,’ from Trump as Russian collusionist to Trump as the face of white supremacy).”

  

  “It’s almost like history is being used as like a vast oppo research thing to make things that they don’t like in the present look bad,” says Stepman. “I think it really comes down to power.”

  The Times is hardly alone in distorting history. USA Today ran an article last year headlined: “Fact check: Democratic Party did not found the KKK, did not start the Civil War.”

  “I was honestly quite amused reading through the USA Today ‘fact check’ last year saying that the Democrats weren’t really the party of slavery and the KKK,” says Stepman. “They came up with all these various caveats – ‘Well, you know, it wasn’t all Democrats; it was only most Democrats in the South.’ I’m thinking, if this was literally any other institution, if this was the name of a street, or if this was a statue, it would have been immediately canceled. It might have even been ripe for being torn down by a mob.”

  To the contrary, USA Today is now one of Facebook’s official fact-checking partners. After the right-leaning Media Research Center published an article critical of USA Today’s fact check absolving the Democratic Party of its ugly legacy, Facebook started censoring the MRC.

  One can recognize that the Democratic Party is conscious of its problematic past — for example, many of its organizations have renamed Jefferson-Jackson Day fundraising dinners to avoid any racist taint –  and yet still see why it’s problematic to whitewash its racist history.

  “[Nikole Hannah-Jones] produced a partisan polemic and left out anything in the historical record that wouldn’t help her make the case. They’re trying to shape how people think about our past so that what happens going forward will of course follow a particular liberal agenda,” Stepman says. “This is a travesty of history and the fact that it’s being taught in high schools is rank partisanship. Believe me, I would rather be doing other things than correcting her errors, but the fact that her errors are being printed as gospel and sold as gospel, that’s a problem. It’s a problem for civic education, and it’s a problem for our cohesion and our unity as a nation.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 22:20

• Mexico Sues US Gun Makers For "Arming The Drug Cartels" In Unprecedented Federal Filing
  Mexico Sues US Gun Makers For “Arming The Drug Cartels” In Unprecedented Federal Filing

  “Guns don’t kill people, the cartels do…” or so we thought. Perhaps we could add corrupt government and police officials do too, by facilitating or turning a blind eye to the soaring violence which has long made Mexico rank within the top 20 most dangerous countries in the world based on murder rate.

  But apparently Mexico officials think it’s in reality the US gun companies to blame for fueling the violence with their products. Bloomberg reports Wednesday, “Mexico filed a lawsuit in a U.S. court Wednesday against Smith & Wesson Brands Inc., Glock Inc., Sturm, Ruger & Co. and other major gun manufacturers, accusing them of contributing to gang violence south of the border.”

  

  The companies stand accused of wreaking havoc in Mexican society “by persistently supplying a torrent of guns to the drug cartels,” according to the civil suit filed in a Massachusetts federal district court.

  The complaint lists among American manufacturers “whose guns are most often recovered in Mexico” – particularly Barrett and its highly sought-after .50-caliber sniper rifle – the following:

  • Smith & Wesson
  • Glock and Sturm
  • Ruger and Co., 
  • Beretta U.S.A. Corp, 
  • Colt’s Manufacturing Company LLC and Century International Arms Inc.
  • Barrett
  • Interstate Arms wholesaler.

  The lawsuit filing reads that “For decades the government and its citizens have been victimized by a deadly flood of military-style and other particularly lethal guns that flows from the U.S. across the border, into criminal hands in Mexico.”

  The country adds that “This flood is not a natural phenomenon or an inevitable consequence of the gun business or of U.S. gun laws. It is the foreseeable result of the defendants’ deliberate actions and business practices.”

  Mexico only has one gun store, the suit reads…

  Mexico filed suit in US federal court against major gun manufacturers. Crazy stat from that suit: pic.twitter.com/wwLY2VnYBn

  — Tina Davis (@tina_davis) August 4, 2021

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  Damages are being sought in an amount to be determined by the court, the filing indicates, while ultimately it seeks to put a stop to what it describes as the US gun companies’ “dangerous and illegal sales practices”. And underscoring that Mexico sees this as ‘intentional’ – the filing adds that the listed companies sell “in ways they know routinely arm the drug cartels in Mexico.” Some reports have cited Mexican officials who’ve floated they could seek up to $10 billion from the American companies.

  Mexico has called gun companies’ tactics “reckless” – specifically citing the example of Colt’s iconic .38-caliber Emiliano Zapata 1911… apparently history-themed commemorative guns are out of bounds.

  This is one of Colt’s guns, the “Emiliano Zapata 1911” pistol, engraved with the image of the Mexican revolutionary. Apparently it’s coveted as a status symbol among drug cartels. pic.twitter.com/HicBhPyxXb

  — Tom Hals (@tomhals) August 4, 2021

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  The suit details that some 17,000 Mexican citizens were murdered with US-made guns in 2019 alone, mostly in the context of cartel-related violence.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 22:00

• Goldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August
  Goldman’s Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August

  The start of a new month means that Goldman’s flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trades to dangle before their clients, and that’s just what Goldman traders Scott Rubner, Matthew Fleury, Matthieu Martal , Kavita Vaja, and Jonas Bovbjerg are doing by putting together the following 13 charts that capture some of the best ideas and trade recos emerging from the world’s most powerful trading desk.

  1. “If you are a stock picker watching earnings prints you are likely fully engaged this week. This week will be peak liquidity for the rest of the summer. Vacation or extended vacation schedules officially kick off next week after earnings season. As we sit right now. Liquidity is at the highs into a busy week”

  

  2. “I think equities would be fine with higher yields – the negative correlation of SPX & NDX with the 30yr has turned positive again. Higher yields are much less of a problem than they were earlier this year”

  

  3.  “China Regulation: As the regulatory pressure on China’s leading offshore internet & education firms has increased in recent weeks, tech hardware companies listed onshore have outperformed the Chinese market. With the broader Chinese economy still in a growth phase (with Chinese equities historically displaying 22% return over 15months, entirely driven by earnings re-rating), and earnings revisions outside of the internet sector higher year to date (MSCI China ex Internet EPS up +5% vs China Internet EPS down -22% YTD), this basket is designed to benefit from the expansion of China’s high tech manufacturing capabilities. For the first time in 5 years we have seen a meaningful divergence between HK and China listed Tech. ADRs have consistently underperformed.”

  

  4. Implied dispersion levels have structurally reset higher over the past 5Y in Europe & US.

  

  5. Dispersion performance has been stable due to rising realized levels over the same period

  

  6. SX5E 1Y Vega neutral dispersion offered defensives properties in GFC & COVID due to realized volatility spikes.

  

  7. Index implied volatility has reset sharply lower pre- and post-COVID, which has contributed to rising implied entry levels for dispersion. However, the compression of index realized volatility since the US elections has maintained stable dispersion performance from the index leg. SX5E 1Y Dispersion performance has been stable due to contribution from both index and single-stock legs.

  

  8. The fall in index implied volatility in recent years can be partly explained by the sharp fall in index implied correlation levels as well as falling demand for upside call options in European equities. Market-implied average single-stock correlation shows that whilst index implied volatility has fallen since 2015 and again post-COVID, driving the implied dispersion entry level higher, this has coincided with a sharp fall in implied correlation levels over the same period. Therefore, dispersion strategies which sell expensive implied correlation have continued to perform well despite higher implied dispersion entry levels. SX5E 1Y implied correlation has fallen more than index implied volatility levels. 

  

  9. Correlation of returns on t vs t-1 is deeply negative in SX5E

  

  10. Despite the spread trading off the lower values during the post-Mar20 period, it remains at historical lows (18th percentile vs. past 5y). The recent pick up in realized spread should support the forward vol level as we roll into the spot spread. Term-structure roll is favorable due to the steepness of the SPX term structure (~0.5v positive carry over the next 3m, everything else remaining equal). The spot spread gets delivered in December at extreme lows, >3v below current 6m realized.

  

  11. Significant roll-up in the SX5E-SPX spread

  

  12. Realized correlation between broader market vs. Momentum vs. EU Cyclicals/Defensives

  

  13. VOW3 term structure has materially flattened over the past year (red vs. grey), driven by a combination of call overwriting in the front-end and more recently, long-dated upside options buyers. Implied volatility has also recently reset lower across the curve (red vs. navy) and the skew is flat/call skew is inverted. Therefore, consider owning long-dated upside call spreads which offer a high max. payout ratio (chart 4, navy) where you sell a call 3v higher (grey) than where you buy a call.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 21:40

• 'A Variant Worse Than Delta': Fauci Dials Fear To 11 As Emerging 'Lambda' Strain Appears More Resistant To Vaccine
  ‘A Variant Worse Than Delta’: Fauci Dials Fear To 11 As Emerging ‘Lambda’ Strain Appears More Resistant To Vaccine

  Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease specialist who funded controversial coronavirus research in Wuhan, China – and is now managing the coronavirus pandemic response for the US government, says the country could be “in trouble” unless everyone who hasn’t been vaccinated gets the jab.

  

  “What we’re seeing, because of this increase in transmissibility, and because we have about 93 million people in this country who are eligible to get vaccinated who don’t get vaccinated — that you have a significant pool of vulnerable people,” said Fauci, who added that delta variant cases are rising in a “very steep fashion” and may hit 200,000 cases per day.

  “And so when you look at the curve of acceleration of 7-day averages of cases per day, it is going up in a very steep fashion.”

  No stats from Fauci on who’s dying, who’s getting hospitalized, or who’s the most vaccine ‘hesitant’ of course.

  The CDC reported today that only 28.4% of the black community have received the Covid vaccine. With states like CA and NY mandating vaccine passports to enter restaurants and businesses, the black community would be most affected by this modern day segregation

  — Dr. Drew (@drdrew) August 4, 2021

  And while the Biden administration is now framing this as a “pandemic of the unvaccinated,” McClatchy notes that “recent data shows that vaccinated people who still get infected with the delta variant also have high viral loads and can spread it to others, even when they aren’t showing symptoms or are experiencing mild disease.”

  Fauci said that data shows people infected with the delta variant have viral levels “about 1,000 times higher in quantity” than were recorded in people who were infected with the alpha variant, also known as the U.K. variant, which earlier this year became predominant in the United States.

  Studies have emerged in recent weeks indicating that vaccinated individuals are at risk of “long COVID” — a series of conditions associated with infection such as fatigue, shortness of breath and loss of smell that can last for weeks or months — even if they are largely protected from severe illness and death, Fauci said.

  “We already know that people who get breakthrough infections and don’t go on to get advanced disease requiring hospitalization, they too are susceptible to long COVID,” Fauci said. “You’re not exempt from long COVID if you get a breakthrough infection.” -McClatchy

  Fauci also said he fears strains which are even scarier than delta!

  “If we don’t crush the outbreak to the point of getting the overwhelming proportion of the population vaccinated, then what will happen is the virus will continue to smolder through the fall into the winter, giving it ample chance to get a variant which, quite frankly, we’re very lucky that the vaccines that we have now do very well against the variants — particularly against severe illness,” he said, adding “We’re very fortunate that that’s the case. There could be a variant that’s lingering out there that can push aside delta.“

  “If another one comes along that has an equally high capability of transmitting but also is much more severe, then we could really be in trouble,” Fauci continued. “People who are not getting vaccinated mistakenly think it’s only about them. But it isn’t. It’s about everybody else, also.”

  Lambda evading vaccine?

  While the highly infectious Lambda variant of Covid-19 may or may not be deadlier than any of the other strains – meaning the vast majority who contract it won’t be hospitalized or die – researchers at the University of Tokyo have warned in a new study that it may be vaccine-resistant, according to Newsweek.

  Like the Delta variant, Lambda is highly transmissible but Japanese researchers believe that three mutations in the variant’s spike proteins make it more resistant to antibodies induced by vaccination.

  Lambda, which is also known as the C.37 variant, is responsible for 1,037 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S., according to data from the GISAID Initiative, which promotes the rapid sharing of information about influenza and coronaviruses.

  The variant was first identified in Peru in August, 2020, where it has now become the dominant strain of the virus, and it has been reported in 29 countries including the U.S. -Newsweek

   “…because the Lambda variant is relatively resistant to the vaccine-induced antisera, it might be possible that this variant is feasible to cause breakthrough infection,” reads the paper, with “Vaccine-induced antisera” referring to antibodies which arise from vaccination.

  There MAY be an Omega Death Variant coming if we don’t lock down and wear masks forever and get vaccinated and get 15 booster shots and never go outside but maybe not still let’s be on the safe side and do all of it anyway even if it destroys the country.

  Am I doing this right?

  — Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) August 4, 2021

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  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 21:20

• Baylor Prof Demands Prosecution Of Criticism Of Fauci And Other 'Scientists' As Hate Crime
  Baylor Prof Demands Prosecution Of Criticism Of Fauci And Other ‘Scientists’ As Hate Crime

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  Physicist Richard P. Feynman once said “Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt.” 

  Feynman’s statement captures how science depends upon constant questioning and challenging of assumptions. Yet, what is healthy debate to some is criminal dissent to others. Dr. Peter Hotez, a professor of pediatrics and molecular virology at Baylor College of Medicine is calling for federal hate-crime protections to be extended to cover criticism of Dr. Anthony Fauci and other scientists.

  The frequent MSNBC and CNN guest wants Congress to expand hate crimes to “scientists currently targeted by far-right extremism in the United States.”

  

  In a July 28 paper in Plos Biology titled “Mounting Antiscience Aggression in the United States,” Hotez encourages Congress to focus on the “band of ultraconservative members of the US Congress and other public officials with far-right leanings are waging organized and seemingly well-coordinated attacks against prominent US biological scientists.”

  Hotez insists that it is not enough to support such science but to criminalize attacks on their research. This suggestion is just one of a number of ideas briefly put forward to support scientists but it is the most chilling.  Referring Nazi and fascist movements in history, Hotez argues that good science requires cracking down on the right.  He concludes:

  “As Nobel Laureate and Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel once pointed out, neutrality or silence favors the oppressor. We must take steps to protect our scientists and take swift and positive action to counter the growing wave of far-right antiscience aggression. Not taking action is a tacit endorsement, and a guarantee that the integrity and productivity of science in the United States will be eroded or lose ground.”

  The federal hate crime laws focus on basis of a person’s characteristics of race, religion, ethnicity, nationality, gender, sexual orientation, and gender identity. We have seen calls for adding professions like police officers, which I also opposed.  As with police officers, the inclusion of such professions would have a direct and inimical impact on free speech in our society. Indeed, it would create a slippery slope as other professions demand inclusion from reporters to ministers to physicians.  Hate crimes would quickly apply to a wide array of people due to their occupations.

  What is most striking about the article of Hotez is its lack of analytical balance. He rages against the right without even acknowledging how social media companies have already enforced a massive censorship program that bars even reporting the results of public clinical trials or repeating CDC positions on vaccinations. For a year, Big Tech has been censoring those who wanted to discuss the origins of pandemic and those who suggested the lab theory were attacked as right-wing conspiracy theorists.  It was not until Biden admitted that the virus may have originated in the Wuhan lab that social media suddenly changed its position. Facebook only recently announced that people on its platform will be able to discuss the origins of Covid-19 after censoring any such discussion.

  Many of us have criticized the hateful rhetoric on both sides of our politics. However, there remain important debates over not just the underlying science relation to Covid-19 but the implications for such science for public policies. Criminalizing aspects of that debate would ratchet up the threats against those with dissenting views, including some scientists. That would harm not just free speech but science in the long run.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 21:00

• Inventory At US Car Dealers Falls To New All Time Low
  Inventory At US Car Dealers Falls To New All Time Low

  The latest auto sales data revealed that in July, auto sales came in at a 14.75 million SAAR per Wards; while total unit sales in July declined by less than 1% sequentially to 1.288 million (from 1.295 million in June), when factoring in the seasonality adjustment, July US SAAR declined by about 4% sequentially (US SAAR was 15.4 million in June per Wards). The July SAAR came in just below the consensus estimate of 15 million.

  

  Some more details: car sales were up about 4% yoy, SUV sales were up about 9% yoy, and pickup truck sales were down about 3% yoy. Pickups and SUVs as a percent of total units were 18% and 54%, respectively (vs. 20% and 52% in July 2020). Per Motor Intelligence, Ford sales were down about 32% yoy and GM sales were down about 3% yoy in July. Ford’s market share in July decreased yoy to 9% from 14%, and GM’s market share decreased yoy to 15% from 17%. According to media reports, production levels at Ford have been particularly impacted by the semiconductor shortages.

  The standout category again was electric vehicles with with July EV sales up about 106% yoy, and hybrid sales up about 65% yoy, per Motor Intelligence. According to Goldman this was due in part to growing consumer demand for EVs and hybrids (as well as more EV/HEV models on the market) in addition to an easier yoy compare (given some areas where EV sales are particularly strong, such as in California, were experiencing COVID-related shutdowns in July 2020). Note that Tesla does not report monthly sales, and with its its dominant EV market share in the US, the EV data has a greater degree of estimation than the other monthly datapoints.

  And while incentive spending per vehicles was down a record 37% Y/Y and 7% sequentially to just $2.5 per car, which was to be expected at time when new and used car prices are surging at record levels…

  

  … what we found most interesting in the July data is that inventory at US dealers plunged sequentially to ~1.0 million from 1.3 million in June 2021, and down from 2.5 million in July 2020. This means that industry DOI came in at a record low 22 days compared to 25 days in June 2021 and 53 days in July 2020. Pickup truck DOI was 31 days (vs. 30 in June 2021 and 56 in July 2020), SUV DOI was 20 days (vs. 24 in June 2021 and 52 in July 2020), and car DOI was 19 days (vs. 24 in June 2021 and 55 in July 2020).

  

  As inventories at dealers continue falling from already historically low levels, it will take a long time for inventory at dealers to return to normalized levels given the strong demand for vehicles coupled with ongoing supply chain challenges (particularly with semiconductor chip shortages, but also due to shipping constraints).

  Additionally, given that the absolute level of auto sales was down only slightly mom to 1.29 million units, but inventory declined by about 300K, it implies that net supply into the market was lower in July (as inventory declined by about 100K units last month on a similar level of sell through).

  Looking ahead, Goldman expects auto production issues “to persist in the near-term due primarily to chip constraints (but also due to shipping challenges, and rising COVID cases in some geographies), which could continue to weigh on industry sales.” The good news: the tide is finally turning and per company comments, automakers expect more chip supply later in 3Q and in 4Q as the semi industry began taking steps to add capacity in late 2020/early 2021 (it takes approximately 9 months to bring semi capacity online, on average, assuming there is clean room space) but supply/demand for chips will remain  tight all year.

  So as a result of low inventory, and the continued strong pricing environment, Goldman expects industry pricing to remain strong in 3Q.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 20:40

• "They Can't Arrest Us All" – Sen. Rand Paul Urges Americans To "Resist" Pelosi & The Petty Tyrants
  “They Can’t Arrest Us All” – Sen. Rand Paul Urges Americans To “Resist” Pelosi & The Petty Tyrants

  Authored by Rand Paul, op-ed via Fox News,

  Resist. 

  

  They can’t arrest us all. They can’t keep all your kids home from school. They can’t keep every government building closed – although I’ve got a long list of ones they should.

  We don’t have to accept the mandates, lockdowns, and harmful policies of the petty tyrants and feckless bureaucrats. We can simply say no, not again. 

  Speaker Nancy Pelosi — you will not arrest or stop me or anyone on my staff from doing our jobs. We have all either had COVID, had the vaccine, or been offered the vaccine. We will make our own health choices. We will not show you a passport, we will not wear a mask, we will not be forced into random screening and testing so you can continue your drunk with power rein over the Capitol. 

  President Biden — we will not accept your agencies’ mandates or your reported moves toward a lockdown. No one should follow the CDC’s anti-science mask mandates. And if you want to shutdown federal agencies again — some of which aren’t even back to work fully — I will stop every bill coming through the Senate with an amendment to cut their funding if they don’t come to work. 

  No more.

  Local bureaucrats and union bosses — we will not allow you to do more harm to our children again this year. Children are not at any more risk from COVID than they are for the seasonal flu. Every adult who works in schools has either had the vaccine or had their chance to. There is no reason for mask mandates, part time schools, or any lockdown measures.

  Children are falling behind in school, and are being harmed physically and psychologically by the tactics you have used to keep them from the classroom last year. We won’t allow it again.

  If a school system attempts to keep the children from full-time, in-person school, I will hold up every bill with two amendments. One to defund them, and another to allow parents the choice of where the money goes for their child’s education.

  Do I sound fed up to you? That’s because I am. 

  I’m not a career politician. I’ve practiced medicine for 33 years. I graduated from Duke Medical School, worked in emergency rooms, studied immunology and virology, and ultimately chose to become a surgeon. 

  I have been telling everyone for a year now that Dr. Anthony Fauci and other public health officials were NOT following science, and I’ve been proven right time and time again. 

  But I’m not the only one who is fed up.

  I can’t go anywhere these days — from work, to events, to airports and Ubers, restaurants and stores, without people coming up to me thanking me for standing up for them.

  For standing up for actual science. For standing up for freedom. For standing against mandates, lockdowns, and bureaucratic power grabs.

  I think the tide has turned, and more and more people are willing to stand up. I see stories from across the country of parents standing up to teacher unions and school boards.

  I see members of Congress refusing to comply with Petty Tyrant Pelosi. 

  We are at a moment of truth and a crossroads. Will we allow these people to use fear and propaganda to do further harm to our society, economy, and children?

  Or will we stand together and say, absolutely not. Not this time. I choose freedom. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 20:20

• Investors Parse President Xi's Speeches For Clues About China's Next Target
  Investors Parse President Xi’s Speeches For Clues About China’s Next Target

  Investors have been distracted Wednesday by the wild ride in Robinhood shares, but that doesn’t mean thousands of investors are trying to anticipate any potential targets for China’s next crackdown. Yesterday, it was video games, but other targets have included education, Big Tech, crypto, payments, ride-sharing etc. Just yesterday, Tencent, the worst-hit US-traded ADR, shed another 10% in early trade as an economic publication slammed video games as “spiritual opium” – before the article was withdrawn and edited to be much less aggressive.

  Alibaba and Tencent, two of China’s biggest companies and among the most visible to international investors, have taken major hits. China has become one of the most controversial topics of the summer, yet it still has plenty of defenders: billionaire Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio praised the opportunities to be seized by investing in China.

  

  Despite Beijing’s egregious rug-pull of the Didi IPO, it likely won’t be the last Chinese IPO. But US investors now realize they need to be much more careful of the risks surrounding China. In the absence of other strategies, Bloomberg reports that many analysts have resorted to reading old speeches by President Xi and parsing them for clues about other companies and businesses that might be targeted.

  Investors can afford databases of the leader’s speeches. According to Bloomberg, President Xi has denounced “obscene” online content, education inequality and housing-price speculation in popular school districts.

  Dan Wang, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, one of the most respected China-focused research shops, said investors previously ignored what he called “Party Speak” because it’s too “dense”. But now, many realize that they must redouble their efforts to parse the contemporary political climate in China, especially since President Xi is expected to seek a third term.

  “Investors and analysts have tended to dismiss party-speak, usually because it’s so impenetrable,” said Dan Wang, a technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics in Shanghai, who regularly reads the Qiushi Journal, a bi-monthly Communist Party publication. “But much of it is perfectly readable, and we should know at this point that Xi usually follows through on what he says.”

  Another issue with reading Xi’s speeches is that many of them are “classified” and available only to CCP members.

  Still, anybody seeking to understand the complexities and contradictions of “Xi Jinping Thought” will find plenty of resources.

  “With power mostly centralized in his hands, Xi now can change status quo policy quickly and even without much warning,” said Victor Shih, associate professor at UC San Diego and author of “Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation.”

  “On top of quick policy changes, officials below him will want to zealously implement any new policy or ‘spirit,’ the party’s term for policy direction,” Shih added. “This zealous implementation will often take place regardless of the longer-term consequences because officials are afraid of being accused of lackluster implementation.”

  Another important element to watch is which agency makes the decision.

  One element to watch is which agency makes the announcement, and over the past decade there’s been an increasing amount of joint statements that span different arms of the government and the party. China’s ban on profits for its tutoring industry was jointly issued by the general offices of top government and party bodies — the State Council and the party’s Central Committee — giving the decision more authority than any single department.

  Looking ahead, the CCP will likely focus on reforming areas that would have the biggest societal impact. The price of real estate, availability and affordability of health care and retirement living are all important issues that the CCP must tackle to stave off public anxieties.

  Jason Hsu, founder and chief investment officer of Rayliant Global Advisors, said” RRight now, it feels like throwing the baby out of the bathwater and every industry is at risk…If you are more aware of what the Chinese has been communicating all along, you know what they will do. Real estate, health care, retirement living — these are identified by policy makers as undermining societal harmony, and the quality of life.”

   

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 20:00

• "LIAR!" Twitter Brawl Erupts Between Taleb & Snowden Over Cyberbullying Accusations
  “LIAR!” Twitter Brawl Erupts Between Taleb & Snowden Over Cyberbullying Accusations

  Arguably the most unexpected Twitter brawl coupled with fierce accusations and denunciations in the recent history of the platform erupted without warning Wednesday afternoon when NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden went after Black Swan and Antifragile author Nassim Taleb. 

  Unlikely as a Snowden vs. Taleb war of words and showdown might be, it quickly spun into a full blown meltdown with supporters of each side quickly jumping in and assorted hangers on rubbernecking amid accusations of cyberbullying and retorts of “LIAR!”. Things spiraled further from there…

  This you?

  Because it sure looks like you were trying to destroy a promising young woman’s reputation in front of extremely powerful members of her industry—with precious little to support your claims.

  I guess my eyes deceive me. https://t.co/HdYIsbl2Sh pic.twitter.com/nR4svyuGIp

  — Edward Snowden (@Snowden) August 4, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Here’s how it all began… 

  I was looking to understand why @nntaleb was cyber-bullying a young woman who writes on economics, and I stumbled upon a frankly unbelievable history of inability to handle even gentle criticism—by a man who titled his book “Antifragile.”

  This behavior goes back years. pic.twitter.com/Jm2cSqC0EC

  — Edward Snowden (@Snowden) August 4, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Taleb has recently come out vocally against Bitcoin, which he says immediately turned into a sustained avalanche of trolls and bots targeting his account – resulting in him blocking just as fast, also with his usual colorful language and notoriously curmudgeonly rhetoric, which he’s never shied away from using in the case of all those “fucking idiots” and imbeciles.

  Snowden initially took issue with a July 30 response of Taleb to writer and analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Snowden said Taleb had engaged in “cyber-bullying a young woman who writes on economics” leading him to list out an “unbelievable history of inability to handle even gentle criticism” including “behavior goes back years” according to Snowden’s tweet.

  

  Taleb blasted away in response to the charge..

  Edgar @Snowden, formerly a victim, is now joining the #BTC cyberbullying mob in devious way, misportraying the victim “you can’t take criticism?”
  What should I do to him?
  Mr Snowden are you capable of a debate? https://t.co/i1IrbGASr9

  — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 4, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  

  Despite the rarity of Snowden getting into a personal Twitter fight, the gloves came off – with the former NSA analyst apparently making an “exception” – even later pinning his original attack on Taleb to the top of his profile.

  With respect, I would be more sympathetic to this defense had you not been using substantially the same language in 2016 (and perhaps earlier) about subjects entirely unrelated to Bitcoin—which at the time was largely ignored at $700.

  Exhibit A: https://t.co/ZBuFZMvqd8 pic.twitter.com/0Gt3YdJY1f

  — Edward Snowden (@Snowden) August 4, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And then time to rehash old controversy and dig up old tweets, as any proper twitter fight tends to go down…

  

  My friend, believe me when I say I understand what it is like to be the subject of unfair and even untrue criticism, but if *this* is all you take away from this exchange, I can’t help you.

  You are a public intellectual. You should be above reflexive insults. pic.twitter.com/xYrrWX4ecQ

  — Edward Snowden (@Snowden) August 4, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  

  

  And things got progressively nastier into the evening, particularly with this Taleb retweet accusing Snowden of being “owned” by Russia, given the place of his asylum and recent citizenship….

  

  For these couple hours Twitterati collectively put down all things COVID, mandates and masks etc., and grabbed the popcorn.

  

  Taleb has since challenged Snowden to a “face-to-face” (or presumably live-streamed) debate, while also charging him with “spreading lies unwittingly”.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 19:40

• Tenant Stampede Results In Largest-Ever Surge In Rents
  Tenant Stampede Results In Largest-Ever Surge In Rents

  Under Biden’s unconstitutional eviction moratorium order, the CDC has mandated thousands of small and medium to drop dead by not only barring them from evicting any deadbeat tenants in the process defying the highest US judicial organ, but also contemplating steep criminal penalties for those who follow this order.

  The new 60-day CDC eviction moratorium carries steep criminal penalties for individual landlords who break the law:

  – Potential $100k fine and 1 year in jail if eviction doesn’t result in death
  – Up to $250k fine and 1 year in jail if evicted person dieshttps://t.co/d0KRACRFUy pic.twitter.com/MVnUQDJQGD

  — Joseph Zeballos-Roig (@josephzeballos) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, as many small landlords continue to go out of business barred from collecting revenue even as costs pile up, Wall Street’s renting giants such as Blackstone will continue to grab market share on the cheap, becoming ever bigger in the process as this WSJ article attests.

  

  But that’s just the beginning: with much of America reopening from covid and a reverse migration into major cities on the rise, Blackstone has a very clear reason to pursue regaining the largest US landlord title: the largest flood of renters in US history are now competing with each other amid record low vacancies – leading to the largest-ever rent increases, and what will be an record cash flow bonanza for Wall Street’s mega landlords.

  

  According to industry consultant RealPage, in the second quarter the number of occupied units jumped by around 500,000, the largest annual increase since records began in 1993 according to  Rents on newly signed leases, meanwhile, jumped by 14.6% last month vs. one year earlier – the most on record, while occupancy reached 96.5%, the highest level in 21 years.

  

  “We’re seeing record low vacancy,” said Jay Parsons, deputy chief economist for RealPage. “Wages are up, people have the money. And people are saying take my money, I want to move in.”

  As Bloomberg notes:

  The rental market is getting flooded with Americans searching for apartments. The economy is revving up, and young people ready to leave their parents’ homes are competing with others who delayed moves because of Covid-19. At the same time, remote work is enabling families to relocate to more-affordable areas, and vaccines have made seniors comfortable again with downsizing.

  The surge confirms what we reported in late June we discussed the biggest rent jump on record according to Apartment List, and crushes any expectations for just a “transitory” inflation hike, because even as the supply chain-driven spike in prices moderates (eventually), it will be replaced with far higher housing prices which contribute to a far higher portion of the CPI basket, resulting in an even bigger spike in year-over-year housing comps which only another change to the composition of the CPI and PCE baskets will be able to sweep under the rug.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 19:20

• China's "Social Credit" System Has Arrived In America
  China’s “Social Credit” System Has Arrived In America

  Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

  As a journalist in China, Liu Hu was no stranger to punishment.

  For reporting on corruption among government officials, Hu was arrested, accused of “fabricating and spreading rumours,” and fined.

  But then one day in 2017 he suddenly found that he was unable to buy a plane ticket. The system just rejected him. He also found he couldn’t purchase certain train tickets.

  Then he discovered that he was unable to acquire a loan from any bank, and even forbidden from buying property at all.

  Eventually Liu Hu discovered his name on a government “List of Dishonest Persons Subject to Enforcement.” And there was no obvious way to appeal the designation, or have his name removed from the list.

  Hu was one of the early victims of the Chinese social credit system which blacklists citizens who are found to be untrustworthy— in the sole discretion of the Chinese government.

  Others on the list have been prevented from renting certain apartments, holding particular jobs. They’ve even,had their bank accounts frozen.

  Sometimes, all it took to become blacklisted was an accusation from a disgruntled business partner, or a social media post critical of the government.

  It’s almost like an official version of the Twitter mob’s habit of “canceling” people for wrong-think.

  The Twitter mob may be easy enough to ignore for most of us. But now it’s become more mainstream to purge US residents who have bad social credit.

  For example, PayPal has announced an inquisition in partnership with the Anti-Defamation League to research funding for extremism on its payment platform.

  “PayPal and ADL will focus on further uncovering and disrupting the financial pipelines that support extremist and hate movements. In addition to extremist and anti-government organizations, the initiative will focus on actors and networks spreading and profiting from all forms of hate and bigotry against any community.”

  They are extremely vague about what exactly they will consider extremist content. But we have some idea…

  The New York Times, for example, considers the word “freedom” to be an “anti-government slogan,” according to a recent article on the protests in Cuba.

  Twitter considered it hate speech and banned a Spanish politician for Tweeting, “a man cannot get pregnant.”

  If you protest lockdowns, you are an extremist putting lives in danger. If you burn down police stations and flip cars in the name of social justice, you are a mostly peaceful protester.

  And these days, anything from the “Ok” hand gesture to cheese is considered racist.

  PayPal is not going to keep this research to itself. It intends to be the tip of the social justice warrior’s spear:

  “The intelligence gathered through this research initiative will be shared broadly across the financial industry and with policymakers and law enforcement.”

  So the Big Banks will be able to use this same intelligence to blacklist “extremists” peddling “hate speech.”

  Just last month Wells Fargo closed the accounts of two different conservative activists, without explanation. In 2019, JP Morgan Chase did the same thing.

  And the CEO of the alternative social media website Gab had four banks in four weeks ban the company’s account, allegedly because the platform harbors “extremist content.”

  All of this looks eerily like a back door for a Chinese-style ‘social credit system’ in the United States.

  

  Vaccine passports are an obvious example.

  If certain people have their way, the unvaccinated will be unable to board an airplane and banned from restaurants. Some people even say the unvaccinated should lose their health insurance for making an unpopular personal health decision.

  During the pandemic, governments across the world set up reporting systems to rat out your neighbors for having family over for the holidays. Bad Citizen!

  Vermont’s governor even asked students to snitch on their own parents who might have invited extended family over for Thanksgiving 2020.

  And now the US government is leading the charge— with the help of the Big Tech companies, of course— by providing new, easy ways to report your ‘radical’ friends and family to the government.

  What exactly constitutes radical? Anything they don’t want you to do, or believe.

  This is the problem when just a handful of powerful centralized institutions controlling society.

  And it is the reason a solid Plan B gives you options to ensure that you’re not entirely reliant on one country’s government, one country’s banking system, or one country’s public health policies.

  I’m actually an optimist, and I have strong hope that humanity will overcome authoritarianism, as it always has before.

  But hope is not a course of action. Optimism is not a viable strategy.

  To truly become more secure from threats like America’s version of the Chinese social credit system, it’s important to give deliberate consideration to Plan B options that will put you in a position of strength.

  *  *  *

  On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That’s why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 19:00

• 'For $1/Day'… Double-Blind Ivermectin Study Reveals COVID Patients Recover More Quickly, Are Less Infectious
  ‘For $1/Day’… Double-Blind Ivermectin Study Reveals COVID Patients Recover More Quickly, Are Less Infectious

  A double-blind Israeli study has concluded that Ivermectin, an inexpensive anti-parasitic widely used since 1981, reduces both the duration and infectiousness of Covid-19, according to the Jerusalem Post.

  

  The study, conducted by Prof. Eli Schwartz, founder of the Center for Travel Medicine and Tropical Disease at Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer, looked at some 89 eligible volunteers over the age of 18 who had tested positive for coronavirus, and were living in state-run Covid-19 hotels. After being divided into two groups, 50% received ivermectin, and 50% received a placebo. Each patient was given the drug for three days in a row, an hour before eating.

  83% of participants were symptomatic at recruitment. 13.5% of patients had comorbidities of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, hypertension or cancer. The median age of the patients was 35, ranging from 20 to 71-years-old.

  Results

  Treatment was discontinued on the third day, and patients were monitored every two days thereafter. By day six, 72% of those treated with ivermectin tested negative for the virus, vs. 50% of those who received the placebo. Meanwhile, just 13% of ivermectin patients were able to infect others after six days compared to 50% of the placebo group – nearly four times as many.

  Hospitalizations

  Three patients in the placebo group were admitted to hospitals for respiratory symptoms, while one ivermectin patient was hospitalized for shortness of breath the day the study began – only to be discharged a day later and “sent back to the hotel in good condition,” according to the study.

  “Our study shows first and foremost that ivermectin has antiviral activity,” said Schwartz, adding “It also shows that there is almost a 100% chance that a person will be noninfectious in four to six days, which could lead to shortening isolation time for these people. This could have a huge economic and social impact.”

  The study, which appeared on the MedRxiv preprint server and has not yet been peer-reviewed. That said, Schwartz pointed out that similar studies – ‘though not all of them conducted to the same double-blind and placebo standards as his’ – also showed favorable results for the drug.

  Ivermectin is incredibly cheap due to its widespread use across the world to treat malaria, scabies, lice and other parasitic infections. In Bangladesh, the cost of ivermectin is around $0.60 to $1.80 for a five-day course, according to the report. In Israel, it costs up to $10 per day.

  While Schwartz’s study showed efficacy among those who had already tested positive, it didn’t determine whether ivermectin is an effective prophylactic which could prevent one from contracting Covid-19, nor does it show whether it reduces chances of hospitalization – however Schwartz noted that other studies have shown such evidence.

  For example, the study published earlier this year in the American Journal of Therapeutics highlighted that “a review by the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance summarized findings from 27 studies on the effects of ivermectin for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 infection, concluding that ivermectin ‘demonstrates a strong signal of therapeutic efficacy’ against COVID-19.”

  “Another recent review found that ivermectin reduced deaths by 75%,” the report said. –Jerusalem Post

  As the Post notes, Ivermectin has been actively opposed as a Covid treatment by the World Health Organization, the FDA, and pharmaceutical companies.

  The “FDA has not approved ivermectin for use in treating or preventing COVID-19 in humans,” it said.

  “Ivermectin tablets are approved at very specific doses for some parasitic worms, and there are topical (on the skin) formulations for head lice and skin conditions like rosacea. Ivermectin is not an antiviral (a drug for treating viruses). Taking large doses of this drug is dangerous and can cause serious harm.”

  Mere discussion of the drug has resulted in big-tech censoring or deplatforming thought leaders in collaboration with the Biden administration.

  Meanwhile, Merck Co. – which manufactured the drug in the 1980s, has come out big against the use of ivermectin to treat Covid-19. In February, the company’s website read: “Company scientists continue to carefully examine the findings of all available and emerging studies of Ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19 for evidence of efficacy and safety. It is important to note that, to date, our analysis has identified no scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against COVID-19 from pre-clinical studies; no meaningful evidence for clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with COVID-19 disease, and a concerning lack of safety data in the majority of studies.”

  As the Post points out – Merck has not launched a single study of its own on ivermectin.

  “You would think Merck would be happy to hear that ivermectin might be helpful to corona patients and try to study it, but they are most loudly declaring the drug should not be used,” said Schwartz.

  “A billion people took it. They gave it to them. It’s a real shame.”

  In closing, the research team writes that “Developing new medications can take years; therefore, identifying existing drugs that can be re-purposed against COVID-19 [and] that already have an established safety profile through decades of use could play a critical role in suppressing or even ending the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.”

  “Using re-purposed medications may be especially important because it could take months, possibly years, for much of the world’s population to get vaccinated, particularly among low- to middle-income populations.“

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 18:55

• Watch: Judge Orders Bailiff To Remove Maskless Top Dallas Official From Meeting
  Watch: Judge Orders Bailiff To Remove Maskless Top Dallas Official From Meeting

  As the debate rages over the CDC’s new guidance advising that even vaccinated people must musk up in places where COVID-19 cases are on the rise, a major incident in a Dallas courtroom is drawing national attention and outrage.

  Dallas County Commissioner J.J. Koch (a Republican) was ordered out of a courtroom by the presiding county judge for not wearing a mask. Judge Clay Jenkins (a Democrat) asked a bailiff to escort the commissioner out after everyone else agreed to don a mask, leaving him the only one to refuse, as video of the incident shows…

  “Under the authority that I have as a constitutional court judge… I’m going to require that we do wear our masks in this courtroom given the evolving situation with the Delta virus, the recommendations of the CDC,” the judge began the tense proceedings.

  Koch responded by saying the new “move toward masking” was issued “without any notice” and questioned whether it is in accordance with Governor Abbot’s most recent mandate which bans local governments and officials from imposing mandates for vaccinations and masks:

  Koch said it was illegal for Jenkins to require him to wear a mask because it directly violated Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) executive order forbidding local jurisdictions from mandating face covering.

  “A failure to comply with this executive order of the governor is subject to a fine of $1,000,” Koch warned.

  The courtroom then briefly adjourned to allow private consultations over what the law actually says, and what policy the court would enforce. Jenkins cited the Texas Supreme Court which broadly gives judges authority to “protect” their courtrooms. “Commissioner Koch do you refuse to wear your mask in this courtroom?” Jenkins asked. “Yup, you do not have the authority under the governor’s order,” Koch replied, calling in an abuse of his power.

  However, as The Dallas Morning News notes, “Jenkins is not a judge in the judicial sense. The county judge title comes from Texas’ roots as an independent nation, when county officials had both judicial and executive responsibilities.” Jenkins said after the tumultuous meeting: “My enemy is the virus, not each other.”

  .@JJKoch escorted from today’s @DallasCountyTx Commissioners Court meeting by order of @JudgeClayJ for refusing to wear a mask as #COVID19 #DeltaVariant surges. @NBCDFW #NBCDFWNow pic.twitter.com/JVTOQ8RfRR

  — Ken Kalthoff (@KenKalthoffNBC5) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Subsequently, “Democratic county Judge Clay Jenkins asked a bailiff to remove Koch from the Dallas County courtroom after he refused. Koch gathered his belongings and left,” local media reported.

  The momentary legal dueling briefly seen in the video before Koch was escorted out of the courtroom by a uniformed officer has no doubt gained the notice of Abbot’s office:

  State Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D) and about 30 other lawmakers wrote a letter to the governor urging him to reverse his executive order banning mask requirements on public schools. However, Abbott has continued to fight against mask mandates, even going as far as threatening to fine local officials if they impose such a measure. 

  

  Likely such scenes will continue to play out in public spaces across the nation, as it seems the Delta variant is sending state and local governments back to a ‘lockdown playbook’ and mentality, despite the “successes” of the vaccines – which was previously touted as the passport back to normalcy.

  Koch’s office has since indicated he has filed a lawsuit against Judge Jenkins as of Wednesday morning.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 18:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Police Open Murder Probe After Belarusian Opposition Activist Found Hanged At Kiev Park
  Police Open Murder Probe After Belarusian Opposition Activist Found Hanged At Kiev Park

  Belarus and its strongman President Alexander Lukashenko are once again under scrutiny in the West after the leader of an exiled opposition group was found dead in a public park in Kiev, Ukraine on Tuesday.

  The New York Times is reporting that 26-year old Vitaly Shishov, who ran the opposition activist organization Belarusian House group (BHU) out of the Ukrainian capital was found dead by hanging at a park near his home. The BHU assists Belarusian democracy activists or anyone else who has run afoul of government authorities in fleeing abroad. 

  

  Ukrainian police are treating it as a pre-meditated murder case given they suspect it was “murder disguised as suicide,” according to CNN. Shishov went missing after leaving his home for his daily jog on Monday, and on Tuesday he “was found hanged today in one of Kiev’s parks, not far from his place of residence,” a police statement indicated. “Vitaly’s mobile phone and personal belongings were removed from the scene.”

  Foul play, and possibly a planned hit by Belarusian intelligence and security services is being widely suspected based especially on the following allegations: 

  • Shishov’s colleagues say he was “under surveillance” before his death and have accused Belarusian authorities of killing him.
  • One colleague, Yuri Shchuchko, said police had warned BHU about threats to activists and the presence of the Belarusian KGB in Ukraine, according to the BBC.

  Following months of massive protests last year into early this year after Lukashenko in August 2020 declared himself winner of a contested election, the longtime ruler began his sixth term in office by cracking down on the demonstrations and unrest.

  A missing Belarusian activist has been found hanged in a park in the Ukrainian capital Kiev, police said, adding they had opened a murder probe https://t.co/wBTzKbOt4q

  — The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Belarusian opposition is now widely blaming the government in Minsk for essentially orchestrating Shishov’s assassination. “Devastated by the news of the death of the Belarusian activist Vital Shyshou who was found hanged in Kyiv. My heart is with his family. It is worrying that those who flee Belarus still can’t be safe,” opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who has been living in exile in Lithuania tweeted hours after the tragic news.

  BDU said in a statement on Tuesday: “Vitaly was under surveillance. There were appropriate notifications to the police about the facts. Also we were repeatedly warned by local sources and by our own people in Belarus about all kinds of provocations up to kidnapping and liquidation,” CNN reports. “Vitaly treated these warnings with stoicism and humor, stating that at least in this way, it would be possible for BDU to get out of the info vacuum,” the exiled opposition group added.

  Belarus was already under the international spotlight this week after the bizarre saga of Belarusian Olympic sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya. The athlete sought shelter in the Polish embassy in Tokyo after publicly criticizing Belarusian Olympic officials over their handling of the games. She claimed Belarusian security services attempted to put her on a plane back home where she would face severe punishment, according to her statements. She will reportedly be given asylum in Poland.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 02:45

• Editor-In-Chief Of Germany's Top Newspaper Apologizes For Fear-Driven COVID Coverage
  Editor-In-Chief Of Germany’s Top Newspaper Apologizes For Fear-Driven COVID Coverage

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  The editor-in-chief of Germany’s top newspaper Bild has apologized for the news outlet’s fear-driven coverage of COVID, specifically to children who were told “that they were going to murder their grandma.”

  

  In a speech delivered to camera, Julian Reichelt said sorry for Bild’s coverage which was “like poison” and “made you feel like you were a mortal danger to society.”

  Reichelt directed his main sentiment towards children who have been terrorized by fearmongering media coverage which has caused child depression and suicides to soar across the world.

  “To the millions of children in this country for whom our society is responsible, I want to express here what neither our government nor our Chancellor dares to tell you. We ask you to forgive us,” he said.

  “Forgive us for this policy which, for a year and a half, has made you victims of violence, neglect, isolation, and loneliness.”

  “We persuaded our children that they were going to murder their grandma if they dared to be what they are, children. Or if they met their friends. None of this has been scientifically proven.”

  Julian Reichelt, the editor-in-chief of @BILD – one of the largest newspapers in Germany, apologized to the children of Germany for the COVID-19 coverage in his newspaper that made them “victims of neglect, isolation and loneliness.”

  Read the subtitles. pic.twitter.com/hn0B0u5H3E

  — Amy Tarkanian (@MrsT106) August 2, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “When a state steals the rights of a child, it must prove that by doing so it protects him against concrete and imminent danger. This proof has never been provided. It has been replaced by propaganda presenting the child as a vector of the pandemic.”

  Reichelt noted how moderate voices who attempted to offer calmer perspectives on the pandemic “were never invited to the expert table” and urged viewers “don’t believe this lie,” when encountering alarmist proclamations from the government.

  The journalist called on authorities to open schools and sports halls instead of polling stations, warning that those who imposed brutal lockdown measures, “will have on their conscience and will leave in the history books, a multitude of innocent souls.”

  Bild has a daily circulation of 1.24 million copies and is the best-selling newspaper in Europe, adding even more weight to this story.

  As we highlighted yesterday, Germans protesting against plans to impose domestic vaccine passports were brutalized by police during demonstrations that took place in Berlin.

  The ugly scenes prompted the UN’s Special Rapporteur on Torture Nils Melzer to put in a request for eyewitnesses ahead of a potential investigation.

  Germans were protesting against plans to ban unvaccinated people from a plethora of different venues, including restaurants, cinemas and stadiums.

  As we previously highlighted, Germany’s domestic spy agency is monitoring anti-lockdown protesters, claiming they are potentially involved in a plot to subvert the country.

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/04/2021 – 02:00

• A New State Of Segregation: Vaccine Cards Are Just The Beginning
  A New State Of Segregation: Vaccine Cards Are Just The Beginning

  Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “The things we were worried would happen are happening.”

  – Angus Johnston, professor at the City University of New York

  Imagine it: a national classification system that not only categorizes you according to your health status but also allows the government to sort you in a hundred other ways: by gender, orientation, wealth, medical condition, religious beliefs, political viewpoint, legal status, etc.

  

  This is the slippery slope upon which we are embarking, one that begins with vaccine passports and ends with a national system of segregation.

  It has already begun.

  With every passing day, more and more private businesses and government agencies on both the state and federal level are requiring proof of a COVID-19 vaccination in order for individuals to work, travel, shop, attend school, and generally participate in the life of the country.

  No matter what one’s views may be regarding the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, this is an unnerving proposition for a country that claims to prize the rights of the individual and whose Bill of Rights was written in such a way as to favor the rights of the minority.

  By allowing government agents to establish a litmus test for individuals to be able to engage in commerce, movement and any other right that corresponds to life in a supposedly free society, it lays the groundwork for a “show me your papers” society in which you are required to identify yourself at any time to any government worker who demands it for any reason.

  Such tactics can quickly escalate into a power-grab that empowers government agents to force anyone and everyone to prove they are in compliance with every statute and regulation on the books. Mind you, there are thousands of statutes and regulations on the books. Indeed, in this era of overcriminalization, it is estimated that the average American unknowingly breaks at least three laws a day.

  This is also how the right to move about freely has been undermined, overtaken and rewritten into a privilege granted by the government to those citizens who are prepared to toe the line.

  It used to be that “we the people” had the right to come and go as we please without the fear of being stopped, questioned by police or forced to identify ourselves. In other words, unless police had a reasonable suspicion that a person was guilty of wrongdoing, they had no legal authority to stop the person and require identification.

  Unfortunately, in this age of COVID-19, that unrestricted right to move about freely is being pitted against the government’s power to lock down communities at a moment’s notice. And in this tug-of-war between individual freedoms and government power, “we the people” have been on the losing end of the deal.

  Now vaccine passports, vaccine admission requirements, and travel restrictions may seem like small, necessary steps in winning the war against the COVID-19 virus, but that’s just so much propaganda. They’re only necessary to the police state in its efforts to further brainwash the populace into believing that the government legitimately has the power to enforce such blatant acts of authoritarianism.

  This is how you imprison a populace and lock down a nation.

  It makes no difference if such police state tactics are carried out in the name of national security or protecting America’s borders or making America healthy again: the philosophy remains the same, and it is a mindset that is not friendly to freedom.

  You can’t have it both ways.

  You can’t live in a constitutional republic if you allow the government to act like a police state.

  You can’t claim to value freedom if you allow the government to operate like a dictatorship.

  You can’t expect to have your rights respected if you allow the government to treat whomever it pleases with disrespect and an utter disregard for the rule of law.

  If you’re tempted to justify these draconian measures for whatever reason—for the sake of health concerns, the economy, or national security—beware: there’s always a boomerang effect.

  Whatever dangerous practices you allow the government to carry out now, rest assured, these same practices can and will be used against you when the government decides to set its sights on you.

  The war on drugs turned out to be a war on the American people, waged with SWAT teams and militarized police. The war on terror turned out to be a war on the American people, waged with warrantless surveillance and indefinite detention for those who dare to disagree.

  The war on immigration turned out to be a war on the American people, waged with roving government agents demanding “papers, please.”

  This war on COVID-19 is turning out to be yet another war on the American people, waged with all of the surveillance weaponry and tracking mechanisms at the government’s disposal. You see, when you talk about empowering government agents to screen the populace in order to control and prevent spread of this virus, what you’re really talking about is creating a society in which ID cards, round ups, checkpoints and detention centers become routine weapons used by the government to control and suppress the populace, no matter the threat.

  No one is safe.

  No one is immune.

  And as I illustrate in my new novel, The Erik Blair Diaries, no one gets spared the anguish, fear and heartache of living in a police state.

  That’s the message being broadcast 24/7 with every new piece of government propaganda, every new law that criminalizes otherwise lawful activity, every new policeman on the beat, every new surveillance camera casting a watchful eye, every sensationalist news story that titillates and distracts, every new prison or detention center built to house troublemakers and other undesirables, every new court ruling that gives government agents a green light to strip and steal and rape and ravage the citizenry, every school that opts to indoctrinate rather than educate, and every new justification for why Americans should comply with the government’s attempts to trample the Constitution underfoot.

  Yes, COVID-19 has taken a significant toll on the nation emotionally, physically, and economically, but there are still greater dangers on the horizon.

  As long as “we the people” continue to allow the government to trample our rights in the so-called name of national security, things will get worse, not better.

  It’s already worse.

  We’ve been having this same debate about the perils of government overreach for the past 50-plus years, and still we don’t seem to learn, or if we learn, we learn too late.

  Curiously enough, these COVID-19 mandates, restrictions and vaccine card requirements dovetail conveniently with a national timeline for states to comply with the Real ID Act, which imposes federal standards on identity documents such as state drivers’ licenses, a prelude to a national identification system.

  Talk about a perfect storm for bringing about a national ID card, the ultimate human tracking device.

  In the absence of a national ID card, which would make the police state’s task of monitoring, tracking and singling out individual suspects far simpler, “we the people” are already being  tracked in a myriad of ways: through our state driver’s licenses, Social Security numbers, bank accounts, purchases and electronic transactions; biometrics; by way of our correspondence and communication devices (email, phone calls and mobile phones); through chips implanted in our vehicles, identification documents, even our clothing.

  Add to this the fact that businesses, schools and other facilities are relying more and more on fingerprints and facial recognition to identify us. All the while, data companies such as Acxiom are capturing vast caches of personal information to help airports, retailers, police and other government authorities instantly determine whether someone is the person he or she claims to be.

  This informational glut—used to great advantage by both the government and corporate sectors—has converged into a mandate for “an internal passport,” a.k.a., a national ID card that would store information as basic as a person’s name, birth date and place of birth, as well as private information, including a Social Security number, fingerprint, retinal scan and personal, criminal and financial records.

  A federalized, computerized, cross-referenced, databased system of identification policed by government agents would be the final nail in the coffin for privacy (not to mention a logistical security nightmare that would leave Americans even more vulnerable to every hacker in the cybersphere).

  Americans have always resisted adopting a national ID card for good reason: National ID card systems have been used before, by other oppressive governments, in the name of national security, invariably with horrifying results. After all, such a system gives the government and its agents the ultimate power to target, track and terrorize the populace according to the government’s own nefarious purposes.

  For instance, in Germany, the Nazis required all Jews to carry special stamped ID cards for travel within the country. A prelude to the yellow Star of David badges, these stamped cards were instrumental in identifying Jews for deportation to death camps in Poland.

  Author Raul Hilberg summarizes the impact that such a system had on the Jews:

  The whole identification system, with its personal documents, specially assigned names, and conspicuous tagging in public, was a powerful weapon in the hands of the police. First, the system was an auxiliary device that facilitated the enforcement of residence and movement restrictions. Second, it was an independent control measure in that it enabled the police to pick up any Jew, anywhere, anytime. Third, and perhaps most important, identification had a paralyzing effect on its victims.

  In South Africa during apartheid, pass books were used to regulate the movement of black citizens and segregate the population. The Pass Laws Act of 1952 stipulated where, when and for how long a black African could remain in certain areas. Any government employee could strike out entries, which cancelled the permission to remain in an area. A pass book that did not have a valid entry resulted in the arrest and imprisonment of the bearer.

  Identity cards played a crucial role in the genocide of the Tutsis in the central African country of Rwanda. The assault, carried out by extremist Hutu militia groups, lasted around 100 days and resulted in close to a million deaths. While the ID cards were not a precondition to the genocide, they were a facilitating factor. Once the genocide began, the production of an identity card with the designation “Tutsi” spelled a death sentence at any roadblock.

  Identity cards have also helped oppressive regimes carry out eliminationist policies such as mass expulsion, forced relocation and group denationalization. Through the use of identity cards, Ethiopian authorities were able to identify people with Eritrean affiliation during the mass expulsion of 1998. The Vietnamese government was able to locate ethnic Chinese more easily during their 1978-79 expulsion. The USSR used identity cards to force the relocation of ethnic Koreans (1937), Volga Germans (1941), Kamyks and Karachai (1943), Crimean Tartars, Meshkhetian Turks, Chechens, Ingush and Balkars (1944) and ethnic Greeks (1949). And ethnic Vietnamese were identified for group denationalization through identity cards in Cambodia in 1993, as were the Kurds in Syria in 1962.

  And in the United States, post-9/11, more than 750 Muslim men were rounded up on the basis of their religion and ethnicity and detained for up to eight months. Their experiences echo those of 120,000 Japanese-Americans who were similarly detained 75 years ago following the attack on Pearl Harbor.

  Despite a belated apology and monetary issuance by the U.S. government, the U.S. Supreme Court has yet to declare such a practice illegal. Moreover, laws such as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) empower the government to arrest and detain indefinitely anyone they “suspect” of being an enemy of the state.

  So you see, you may be innocent of wrongdoing now, but when the standard for innocence is set by the government, no one is safe.

  Everyone is a suspect.

  And anyone can be a criminal when it’s the government determining what is a crime.

  It’s no longer a matter of if, but when.

  Remember, the police state does not discriminate.

  At some point, it will not matter whether your skin is black or yellow or brown or white. It will not matter whether you’re an immigrant or a citizen. It will not matter whether you’re rich or poor. It won’t even matter whether you’ve been properly medicated, vaccinated or indoctrinated.

  Government jails will hold you just as easily whether you’ve obeyed every law or broken a dozen. Government bullets will kill you just as easily whether you’re complying with a police officer’s order or questioning his tactics. And whether or not you’ve done anything wrong, government agents will treat you like a suspect simply because they have been trained to view and treat everyone like potential criminals.

  Eventually, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, when the police state has turned that final screw and slammed that final door, all that will matter is whether some government agent chooses to single you out for special treatment.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 23:45

• San Diego To Ban "Ghost Gun" Kit Sales
  San Diego To Ban “Ghost Gun” Kit Sales

  Readers are aware Democrats are coming for “ghost guns” and have already begun to ban these unserialized weapons.

  Ghost guns are untraceable to the federal government and can be bought at gun stores or online in 80% lower kits. Since the lowers are unfinished and involve some drilling and tinkering, the lowers are not considered guns, thus don’t need to be serialized. 

  Difference Between 80% Lower Vs. Firearm 

  

  The days of purchasing 80% lower kits are coming to an end in at least one city. 

  San Diego City Council leaders voted Monday to approve a bill to ban ghost gun sales across the city, according to local news ABC10. 

  Councilmembers voted 8-1, with one member, Chris Catem, voting the lone “no.” 

  The proposal, called the E.N.U.F. (Eliminate Non-Serialized Untraceable Firearm) Ordinance, will “prohibit the possession, purchase, sale, receipt, and transportation of non-serialized, unfinished frames and unfinished receivers, and non-serialized firearms within the City of San Diego.” 

  Councilmember Marni Von Wilpert introduced the proposal last month. Von Wilpert released a statement Monday after the vote: 

  “The spread of untraceable ‘ghost guns’ is fueling gun violence in our city and today’s vote will help keep firearms out of the hands of people who pose danger to our communities—including violent criminals, domestic abusers, individuals suffering from mental illness, and terrorists.”

  Cate, who voted against the proposal, told other councilmembers, “this law does nothing to prevent mass shootings. This law does nothing to hold criminals accountable. This law does nothing to make us safer.”

  Councilmembers will reconvene on Sept. 14 for a second reading ahead of the bill going into law. 

  San Diego Police have reported the number of unserialized guns seized continues to rise every year exponentially. In 2019, police seized 77 ghost guns, and that number soared to 211 in 2020. The number this year could swell to more than 400. 

  Ghost gun seizures are up across the country.

  In Baltimore City, Maryland, police estimate they will find “250 to 300” ghost guns this year. 

  President Biden has been an advocate for banning ghost guns and crushing the National Rifle Association. 

  The banning of 80% lower kits will push more and more people to 3D-print weapons.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 23:25

• Why Americans No Longer Trust The Biden Administration
  Why Americans No Longer Trust The Biden Administration

  Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

  For libertarians – and even many non-libertarians – it’s not shocking to discover that a US Administration lies and deceives the electorate. For government on all levels, lying to the American people is as American as apple pie. Sometimes the liars are held to account for their deception, but most often they are not.

  

  Watching these early months of the Biden Administration it’s hard not to think that lying, deceiving, and manipulation is rising to a whole new level.

  Take “ending the endless war” in Afghanistan. President Biden was cheered for achieving what even Donald Trump could not deliver: an end to the pointless 20 year – and several trillion dollar – war in Afghanistan. By the 20th anniversary of 9/11, we were told, the war would be over.

  The only people furious about this decision were the bombmakers at Raytheon and the rest of the military-industrial complex and the laptop warriors in the Beltway think tanks. It turns out, they really didn’t need to worry.

  The US is not finally leaving the Afghan people alone to run their country as they see fit. Just this week, Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the US is increasing – not ending – its airstrikes on Afghanistan. The US would be pulling regular military troops out of the country (though likely keeping CIA, Special Forces, and mercenaries on the ground), but it would continue to bomb Afghanistan using “over the horizon” facilities from the Persian Gulf.

  I’m sure that makes Afghan victims of US bombs feel much better.

  Then last week Biden announced an “end of the US combat mission” in Iraq by the end of the year. While we’ve heard that line before, still it seemed like good news. However, as usual, the devil was in the details. While the “mission” was over, the US troops would remain in-country in an “advisory role.” This is despite the fact that the Iraqi Parliament formally requested last year that US troops leave the country.

  Biden has bombed anti-ISIS militias supported by the Iraqi government twice this year (so far).

  The 900 US troops illegally occupying Syrian territory would also remain in-country, the Biden Administration announced last week.

  Also, just over a week ago President Biden told us that if we got the vaccine we would not get Covid. Then a few days later his own CDC released data from a Massachusetts study showing that 78 percent of the people who caught Covid were fully vaccinated. Is it any wonder Americans have lost all faith in “the science” as it pours forth from the politicized “scientists” in charge of US public health institutions?

  The US mainstream media has morphed into a de-facto arm of the Biden Administration, however, covering up for all of these lies and word-games and holding precisely no one in government accountable. So much for a free media acting as a check on government power.

  In fact, any “enemy” country overseas with such a subservient press would be targeted for a State Department color revolution.

  Governments lie. We understand that. It is the nature of politics and power.

  In the absence of independent institutions to hold government accountable, however, such lies become indistinguishable from facts, and soon “freedom” itself becomes slavery, as Orwell wrote. Let’s hope more of America wakes up soon.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 23:05

• Plague-Carrying Chipmunks Spark Closures In South Lake Tahoe
  Plague-Carrying Chipmunks Spark Closures In South Lake Tahoe

  Just week after reports of the literal plague being discovered in Colorado, killing a 10-year-old girl; officials are closing some areas on the south shore of Lake Tahoe after some chipmunks tested positive for plague.

  

  The Tahoe Daily Tribune reports that the Taylor Creek Visitor Center, Kiva Beach and their parking areas will be off limits through Friday.

  

  It spreads to humans through bites of infected fleas or through contact with infected animals via the bacteria Yersinia pestis, and causes severe symptoms which have a rapid onset, but El Dorado County spokesperson Carla Hass said on Monday that there has been no human contact (yet), though we do note that officials say symptoms of plague usually show up within two weeks of exposure to an infected animal or flea and include fever, nausea, weakness and swollen lymph nodes..

  

  The CDC has written that “human plague infections continue to occur in rural areas in the western United States, but significantly more cases occur in parts of Africa and Asia.” Some recent cases have been observed in places like Mongolia. 

  “It’s important that individuals take precautions for themselves and their pets when outdoors, especially while walking, hiking or camping in areas where wild rodents are present,” said Public Health Officer Dr. Nancy Williams in a press release last year when a person was the first in five years in California to contract plague.

  “Human cases of plague are extremely rare but can be very serious.”

  The question is – were the squirrels and chipmunks wearing masks?

  

  Forest Service officials expect the facilities to be open again by the weekend.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 22:45

• Israel Revives COVID Restrictions As Cases Soar, Warns Of Possible Lockdown In September
  Israel Revives COVID Restrictions As Cases Soar, Warns Of Possible Lockdown In September

  Despite being the most heavily vaccinated country in the world, Israel has just imposed new restrictions on its population, and the body responsible for generating its COVID policies just admitted that a lockdown in September is no longer a remote possibility.

  Israel’s coronavirus cabinet announced Tuesday night that starting Aug. 20, the country will revive its full green pass system. Starting Sunday, masks will be mandatory in all indoor and outdoor gatherings and even fully vaccinated parents responsible for caring for a child in quarantine will be demanded to isolate as well (for children 12 and under).

  

  Israel reported nearly 4K new cases over the previous 24 hours it announced on Tuesday, the biggest daily jump in new cases since March, when the country’s vaccination program was still in its infancy. Another 7 people were reported dead from COVID on Monday, bringing the 48 hour death toll to 17, the highest level in four months.

  

  Source: Worldometer

  Israel’s ‘green pass’ system grants access to places and activities only for people who have been fully vaccinated, who have recovered from COVID, or who tested negative in the past 72 hours. With the new restrictions, the system  will only apply to gatherings with more than 100 people. But pretty soon, the restrictions could be tightened, according to the Jerusalem Post.

  Earlier Tuesday, the Israeli Health Ministry announced that both vaccinated and unvaccinated travelers coming to Israel from the US and 17 other countries will need to quarantine for 2 weeks starting Aug. 10.

  The JPost also reported that the Health Ministry has opened the door to a possible lockdown this fall if hospitalizations and deaths increase.

  “The Delta epidemic is extremely contagious, and is spreading all over the world,” said Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. “Avoid crowds, and get vaccinated – now. Otherwise, there will be no choice but to impose more severe restrictions, including a lockdown.”

  Defense Minister Benny Gantz added: “We need to prepare the public and public opinion for a lockdown in September, which is a month in which the economic damage will be less, and accelerate the immunization effort to try to prevent it.”

  Also on Tuesday, Gantz announced that an additional 1K reservists will be called back to support the ministry’s activities related to the pandemic. Soldiers are employed for several logistical activities. And an additional 500 medics are going to be recruited to assist the Health Ministry’s vaccination efforts.

  Less than a week has passed since the Israeli government announced it would start administering booster shots to people over age 60. And now that at least two European nations have said they’re preparing to dole out booster shots, it’s only a matter of time before Big Pharma gets its way in the US, leading to more sales for Pfizer and Moderna at newly inflated prices.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 22:25

• "People Slept In Airports" – Spirit, American Cancel Hundreds of Flights Amid Staffing Shortage
  “People Slept In Airports” – Spirit, American Cancel Hundreds of Flights Amid Staffing Shortage

  Travel chaos is unfolding across US airports as American Airlines Group Inc. and Spirit Airlines Inc canceled hundreds of flights Tuesday, the third consecutive day of cancellations following “concerns that crew shortages are adding to problems that initially were caused by weather and technology issues,” according to Bloomberg. 

  

  FlightAware’s flight tracker website showed that at least 800 flights were canceled into or out of the US on Tuesday afternoon. American canceled 288 flights, or about 9% of its schedule today, 563 Monday flights, and 300 Sunday flights. Spirit canceled 347 flights, or about 50% of all flights Tuesday, after canceling 42% of its Monday flights due to weather and what eventually transpired into “operational challenges.”

  We are experiencing operational challenges in some areas of our network. Before going to the airport, check your email and current flight status here: https://t.co/yuPJDPxeNu. The fastest way to receive assistance is to visit our webchat: https://t.co/QnlZcUCMtk. pic.twitter.com/E176h8KHjN

  — Spirit Airlines (@SpiritAirlines) August 2, 2021

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  Internet search trends for “flight canceled” spiked on Monday and Tuesday. The most common search query was “spirit cancelled flights.” These searches were seen across dozens of states. 

  

  Frustrated travelers tweeted horror stories of their experiences over the last few days. Some said there were no re-booking options, stranding them at airports for multiple days. 

  We’re on day 2 of @AmericanAir cancelling my flight home with two toddlers, no re-booking options (refusal to book on a sister airline even though there were plenty of flights yesterday), no support for at least 2 extra nights in hotel, & over a 4 hour wait time on the phone…

  — Emily Huffman (@emhuffman) August 3, 2021

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  People had to sleep in the airport. Some of us got $7 meal vouchers that ended the next day. Calling customer service. They hang up. Hella people stranded and can’t get home in PR @SpiritAirlines WHERE IS OUR MONEY pic.twitter.com/TjOStUe7uZ

  — La’Mayah 💁🏾‍♀️ (@SimpliiMee_) August 3, 2021

  Others blamed staffing shortages.   

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  Coop, from All American, leads a protest against Spirit Airlines at Fort Lauderdale Airport #AllAmericanCW pic.twitter.com/an00DS9ho1

  — Hood Politics (@marl0stanfield_) August 3, 2021

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  ‘They got our luggage, our money and there’s no airline staff here’: Furious travelers blast Spirit and American for canceling 670 flights as airport chaos enters THIRD day

  Spirit canceled 400 on Sunday and Monday, Orlando and Fort Lauderdale were hard hit pic.twitter.com/25PDr3o3DX

  — Lilian Chan (@bestgug) August 3, 2021

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  Line for ⁦@SpiritAirlines⁩ at LAX now out the door after the airline cancels 400+ flights; blaming bad weather + staff shortages.
  Domino effect of delays and cancellations could take days to resolve. @foxla pic.twitter.com/CX9eN567HD

  — Gigi Graciette (@GigiGraciette) August 3, 2021

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  American’s pilot’s union told USA Today the airline “can’t keep blaming flight cancellations on the weather” as staffing shortages disrupt hundreds of flights and leave thousands of travelers stranded at airports Tuesday. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 22:05

• "I Know It Seems Weird": NIH Director Suggests Parents Wear Masks At Home Around Children
  “I Know It Seems Weird”: NIH Director Suggests Parents Wear Masks At Home Around Children

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  The head of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) suggested Tuesday that parents should wear masks while at home around children even if they don’t have COVID-19.

  “It’s clear that this variant is capable of causing serious illness in children. You heard those stories coming out of Louisiana pediatric ICUs, where there are kids as young as a few months old who are sick from this,” Dr. Francis Collins said during a CNN interview, although he admitted that such cases “[are] rare.”

  But he added that “anyone who tries to tell you, ‘ah you don’t have to worry about it if you are a young, healthy person,’ there’s many counterexamples.”

  “That’s the reason why the recommendations are, for kids under 12, that they avoid being in places where they might get infected, which means recommendations of mask-wearing in schools and at home,” Collins said.

  “Parents of unvaccinated kids should be thoughtful about this and the recommendation is to wear masks there as well. I know that’s uncomfortable. I know it seems weird, but it is the best way to protect your kids.”

  The NIH director says that vaccinated parents should be wearing masks *at home* to protect their kids, who have essentially zero risk of dying from COVID.

  These are the ravings of a mad man. This guy should be locked in an asylum. It’s that crazy.

  pic.twitter.com/aR0lAq53oi

  — Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) August 3, 2021

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  So far, about 400 children under the age of 18 have died with COVID-19, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

  

  While “studies have consistently shown that children, adolescents, and young adults are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infections,” the agency also said, “children and adolescents have had lower incidence and fewer severe COVID-19 outcomes than adults.”

  COVID-19 is the illness caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, also known as SARS-CoV-2 or the novel coronavirus.

  A number of studies, separately, have also shown that children are at an extremely low risk of suffering severe health problems or dying from COVID-19.

  A study from July obtained by the Wall Street Journal suggested that a child’s odds of surviving a COVID-19 infection is about 99.995 percent. It also noted there is no evidence yet that the Delta COVID-19 variant causes more deaths or severe illnesses among children.

  Last week, the CDC issued an update to its guidance around mask-wearing, saying that vaccinated individuals should wear face coverings in high-transmission areas. The agency also is now recommending that children, staff, and teachers wear masks in public schools regardless of vaccination status.

  “If your child is younger than 2 years or cannot wear a mask, limit visits with people who are not vaccinated or whose vaccination status is unknown and keep distance between your child and other people in public,” the agency says in its recent revision.

  The CDC, however, does not recommend that people wear masks at home unless they are sick.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 21:45

• Japanese Government Starts "Naming And Shaming" Quarantine Rulebreakers
  Japanese Government Starts “Naming And Shaming” Quarantine Rulebreakers

  The Olympics are in full swing and COVID cases have continued to climb in Tokyo (and across Japan).

  

  And while top medical officials, including the head of the Japan Medical Association, call for a nationwide state of emergency to contain a surge in COVID-19 cases in Tokyo and elsewhere, the government has instead been forced to limit hospitalizations only to the most severe COVID cases as worries grow about the country’s health-care system being overwhelmed. Some have complained this policy might boost the COVID death toll, which remains surprisingly low in Japan despite the country’s elderly population: Just over 15K people have died in a country with more than 126MM people.

  As the domestic dispute over what should be done next to quell the rise in COVID cases triggered – as much as the government is loath to admit it – by the decision to hold the Olympics despite the surge, Japan is trying a new strategy: naming and shaming COVID lawbreakers.

  Reuters reports that Japan has carried out the threat to publicly shame those not complying with border control measures: the government released the names of three people who broke quarantine rules after returning home from a trip overseas.

  The health ministry said late on Monday that the three Japanese nationals (Reuters didn’t republish the names) had clearly avoided contact with authorities after recently returning from abroad.

  The announcement, the first of its kind, sparked a flurry of speculation among Japanese social media users regarding their jobs and locations.

  Japan is asking all travelers from overseas, including its own citizens, to self-quarantine for two weeks, during which they are asked to use a location-tracking smartphone app to verify their location.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 21:25

• Parent Organization Sues Florida School District To Locate Alleged "Very Pornographic" Children's Textbooks
  Parent Organization Sues Florida School District To Locate Alleged “Very Pornographic” Children’s Textbooks

  Authored by Patricia Tolson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A lawsuit has been filed against Broward County Public Schools (BCPS) after two public records requests were denied. Both requests sought information regarding a list of 42 books the requestor believes have “very pornographic” content that may be available to children as young as four years old.

  “The lawsuit was filed reluctantly but we had to say to Broward County that we need this information,” Rick Stevens, one of the founders and co-managing directors of Florida Citizens Alliance (FLCA) and pastor of Diplomat Westland Church in Cape Coral, Florida, told The Epoch Times.

  “It is public information and, since the first part of June we have been trying to get them to respond.”

  

  FLCA is the organization that requested the information from BCPS.

  “We want to know what materials they have in their media centers and libraries,” Stevens said, explaining that the two months of delays and excuses they faced to find simple answers begs one question: “What are they trying to hide?”

  “The truth is, the school district is stonewalling,” Alexander Bumbu of Pacific Justice Institute (PJI) explained to The Epoch Times. “That’s why the lawsuit was necessary. We wanted to know if they’re hiding something and we’re very concerned that they are possibly exposing kids to inappropriate stuff.”

  “PJI is one of the largest, faith-based, non-profit legal defense firms in the country with offices from coast to coast,” Bumbu explained. “Since our founding in 1997, PJI has been a beacon for parental rights. In that role, PJI represents FLCA, a parental rights organization, which informs parents about potentially pornographic materials in their government schools. FLCA compiled a list of books and hired PJI to file a public records request to learn if Broward County Public Schools possesses any of those books and which schools those books are located in.”

  A similar request, with a different list of books, was made to BCPS and other Florida school districts in 2019. Back then, BCPS admitted to having 82 percent of the listed books.

  “That is a fact that BCPS would no doubt be embarrassed about now,” Bumbu attested. “Under Florida law, BCPS is responsible for monitoring the materials in its schools. Floridians have a clear right to see those materials. FLCA is doing what any parent would do if they were concerned about what his or her kid is being exposed to in school.”

  ‘A Jaw-dropping Experience’

  “One of the books on the list that FLCA submitted in 2019 has a drawing of a naked woman bent over forward holding a hand-held mirror to examine her genitalia,” Bumbu explained, calling the first time he saw the image “a jaw-dropping experience.”

  “BCPS admitted in 2019 to having this book in some of their schools, including an elementary school,” Bumbu added. “If you can’t be shown these images on your evening news, they should not be shown to your kid in school.”

  The image described by Bumbu is in a book titled It’s Perfectly Normal, recommended on Amazon for children “10 and up” in grades 5 to 8. Another image in the book depicts a man and a woman engaged in sexual intercourse.

  “Sexual intercourse happens when two people—a female and a male or two females or two males—feel very sexy and very attracted to each other and want to be very close to each other in a sexual way,” the book reads as it goes into a graphic description of sexual intercourse.

  It’s Perfectly Normal wasn’t on the 2021 list of books submitted to BCPS by FLCA. Therefore, FLCA doesn’t know if that book is still being made available to 10-year-olds.

  “In the end, they still didn’t provide all of the information I asked for,” Bumbu noted, explaining that BCPS is still withholding exactly where in the schools the books they admit to having from the 2021 list are located: media centers, instructional materials, supplemental materials, or reading lists.”

  “Our parents send their children to school with the expectation that their children will get a good education and the school will take care of them,” Stevens said. “Well, when the parents send their children to school they have a reasonable expectation that the school is doing the same thing, monitoring the materials and making sure they are the right kind of things for their children to be exposed to. We don’t know what’s going on in Broward County, so we can’t help but wonder what they’re trying to hide from the parents and the residents of Florida. That’s what we want to find out. What are they trying to hide?”

  “The foot-dragging Broward County Public Schools (BCPS) put me and Florida Citizens Alliance (FLCA) through an eight-week long saga and odyssey into the bureaucratic abyss,” Bumbu lamented. “BCPS finally provided me with a list Thursday, three days after I filed the lawsuit, but they didn’t provide all of the information I asked for.”

  The list BCPS provided shows which schools the books are located in but it doesn’t specify where in the school those books are located.

  Matter of Great Concern

  For those who aren’t concerned with children as young as 4 years old being exposed to books showing or talking about people engaged in sexual acts, Bumbu believes the two months of stonewalling by BCPS should still be a matter of great concern.

  “BCPS’s stonewalling undermines Floridians’ rights to access public records,” Bumbu insisted. “That is why it’s imperative that a public example be made of BCS to show that government school districts can and should be held accountable for disregarding Floridians’ rights to access public records.”

  Keith Flaugh, managing director of FLCA, said advocates of the inappropriate material are trying to accuse his organization of trying to “ban books.”

  “We’re not banning books,” Flaugh told The Epoch Times, explaining they are trying to prohibit the availability of inappropriate materials to minors. “It’s not banning books any more than it’s banning guns or drugs from school property. These are harmful materials and our public schools have no place distributing or allowing them.”

  “These books are sexually explicit and age-inappropriate,” Flaugh insisted, “and books like It’s Perfectly Normal are very pornographic.”

  Books like Sex, Puberty and All That Stuff, on the 2021 list of inappropriate books, teaches minor children aged 11 to 16 all about erections and their alternative names: “stiffy, hard-on, and boner.” This Book is Gay (also on the 2021 list) provides minor children aged 14-17 detailed instructions—including explicit drawings—on how to have “boy-on-boy” and “girl-on-girl” sex.

  According to Flaugh, these books are in direct violation of Florida obscenity statutes, including statute 847.001, 847.012, and 1006.31.

  While BCPS admitted to having 82 percent of the books deemed inappropriate on their 2019 list, Bumbu said BCPS now claims to have only nine of the books on the “inappropriate content” list for 2021.

  “That’s still nine books, “Bumbu said.

  The most popular of the nine books is a Young Adult (YA) novel by Judy Blume called Forever, originally published in 1975. According to Amazon, the recommended grade level for this book is “nine and up.”

  “Nothing is glossed over: sexually transmitted infections, abortion, contraception and periods,” reads James Dawson’s review of the book for The Guardian in 2015. “What’s startling when reading Forever in 2015 is how modern it feels. The cherry on the cake is potentially gay character Artie. Yes: LGBT+ characters in a YA novel from before YA even existed. Amazing.”

  According to the list provided by BCPS, 86 schools—including Gulfstream Academy (K-8), Annabelle C. Perry, Beachside Montessori Village, and Coral Springs (PreK-8)—have at least one copy of the book. Without knowing where the books are located in each school, no one can find out if the book is available by choice to any child through the library or whether it is being used as a supplemental resource or recommended by a specific teacher through a reading list.

  “Arguably, Forever’s influence is so powerful it was almost the first and last word on teen sex,” Dawson opined of the book BCPS now may have available to Pre-K children as young as 4 years old. “Virginity was lost so perfectly it was almost as if no author ever need bother again.”

  In Florida, the age of consent is 18 years old, and sexual intercourse with someone who is under 18 is considered statutory rape. However, Florida does have a close-in-age exemption—also known as “Romeo and Juliet law”—which protects underage couples who engage in consensual sex from prosecution when both participants are significantly close in age and one or both are below the age of 18.

  As BCPS is still withholding information, Flaugh told The Epoch Times they are still moving forward with their lawsuit.

  Follow Patricia on Twitter: @PTolson1

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 21:05

• Tesla's "Big Battery" Fire Highlights Growing Risks Related To Lithium-Ion Power Storage
  Tesla’s “Big Battery” Fire Highlights Growing Risks Related To Lithium-Ion Power Storage

  The conversation about lithium ion batteries has been so disproportionately focused on how “green” they can help the world become, nary a word is said about the trade-offs of implementing them at scale. 

  Just over the last two months, we’ve written not only about how much driving needs to be done in EVs to make them better for the environment than internal combustion engine vehicles, but we’ve also noted that EV carbon footprints aren’t necessarily as better than ICE vehicles as many people think.

  And it was no sooner than yesterday that we wrote a piece laying out concerns around metals used in the growing production of EV batteries. We noted that the industry was trying to solve the problem of creating a circular economy for the components, as a growing demand for EVs could eventually result in a crunch for the metals. 

  Today, the FT highlighted yet another risk associated with the use of batteries to story renewable energy: fire.

  Citing the giant fire in Australia at one of Tesla’s giant battery installations that we recently wrote about, the report questioned the risks of lithium use to store energy. The blaze, which took three days to be extinguished, started in a shipping container holding a 13 ton lithium ion battery and then spread to a second battery pack, the report notes.

  The “Victorian Big Battery” project is the largest in the country and is operated by French renewable energy developer Neoen. 

  “The incident comes as utilities around the world from Australia to California increasingly rely on large lithium-ion batteries to store renewable energy from the wind and the sun,” FT pointed out. These are the same types of batteries used in electric cars. 

  And this type of battery storage is on the rise. In fact, the market is set to grow 27x by the end of the decade. There have been a total of 38 large lithium ion battery fires since 2018, the report notes.

  

  A lithium fire in Beijing in April 2020 killed 2 firefighters and took 235 firefighters to control. In September 2020, a fire broke out at a lithium ion battery in Liverpool. In Arizona in 2019, a grid-scale lithium ion battery fire threw a firefighter “more than 20 meters” and left him with a brain injury and broken ribs.

  FT describes “thermal runway”, a term we often heard when talking about the Tesla “whistleblower” and alleged defects in Tesla batteries:

  Lithium-ion batteries can catch fire after a process called “thermal runaway”, which results when a battery is overcharged or crushed. Heat as well as a mixture of gases are produced, which when released form a vapour cloud that can ignite or cause an explosion. 

  Paul Christensen, a professor at Newcastle University, noted the risk: “We don’t have a definitive answer of what is the best way to deal with an EV [electric vehicle] fire or energy storage fire. They [lithium-ion batteries] are essential to the decarbonisation of this planet but their penetration into society has far outstripped our actual knowledge of the risks and hazards associated with them.”

  Matt Deadman, lead officer for alternative fuels and energy systems at the National Fire Chiefs Council in the UK, told FT: “It’s about cooling the batteries and you can extinguish the flame but lithium-ion batteries will produce their own oxygen as they break down — they will keep catching fire again, we just take as much as heat as we can out of them. At the moment we rely on tried and tested firefighting methods using water which is effective but it’s not a golden bullet for solving these things as quickly as you possibly can.”

  But as of now, it still appears that the “pros” outweigh the “cons” for lithium ion batteries. Gavin Harper, a research fellow at the University of Birmingham, concluded: “It is essential that we don’t stifle new innovation as it is imperative that we decarbonise rapidly, but at the same time, we need to take a precautionary approach as we deploy new technologies at scale.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 20:45

• Banks Are Literally Begging Americans To Take Out Loans And Max Out Credit Cards
  Banks Are Literally Begging Americans To Take Out Loans And Max Out Credit Cards

  Last month when looking at the latest bank balance sheets, we showed that something was “terminally broken” in the US financial system: specifically, we showed that a “stunning divergence” had emerged between the total deposits at big banks which had just hit a record high courtesy of the Fed’s QE (as the fungible reserves injected by the Fed end up as cash on bank balance sheets and offset the concurrent surge in deposits) and the stagnant loan books, which had barely budged since the Lehman bankruptcy as most US consumers have no pressing need to expand businesses and ventures, a startling confirmation of the woeful state of the US economy when one peels away the fake facade of the record high stock market.

  

  In fact, looking at the chart below, one can see that all the Fed has done since the (first) financial crisis is to force bank balance sheets to grow ever larger not due to loan growth but to accommodate the trillions in reserves which alas earn next to nothing – unless they are invested directly in risk assets as JPMorgan’s CIO “Whale” did back in 2012 with rather unfortunate results – and which screams that something is terminally broken with the entire financial system.

  But while banks and financial analysts may pretend otherwise, everyone knows that such “growth” predicated on a reserve sugar high is hollow at best, and is why banks – whose entire net interest income  depends on loan growth – are so desperate to hand out loans.

  How desperate? We got the answer yesterday with the latest, July, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey conducted by the Fed. We won’t waste readers’ time going over the specifics – we have done that frequently in the past most recently here – suffice it to say that all this survey measures is how tight – or alternatively loose – bank lending standards are in anything from C&I loans to auto loans, to residential loans, to multifamily loans, all the way to that American staple: credit cards. A positive net number means standards are tight – as they were in the second quarter of 2020 – while a negative number means standards are loose. Or as the case may be right now, the loosest they have ever been.

  Presenting: a visual representation of the latest SLOOS report.

  

  The chart is self-explanatory, but here are a few observations – not a single type of loan was on the “tight” side; instead every single type of loan tracked by the Fed was extremely loose by historical standards and when it comes to some loan types such as credit cards, C&I loans and small firm loans the lending standards have never been looser: when it comes to those categories of debt, banks – so desperate to grow their loan books – are literally begging Americans to take the money. Oh and one final note: not even at the peak of the 2005 housing bubble was it this easy to take out a loan!

  There is just one problem: the supply of consumer debt may be at all time high but the demand is at best tepid, and as the next chart shows, while it did tick up modestly, the percentage of banks reporting stronger loan demand is well within the historical range.

  

  Of course, this may well be a temporary state, and sooner or later banks may get just what they have wanted and demand eventually soars. It’s then – when the perfect storms of record easy loan supply and record high loan demand finally collide – that the truly runaway inflation the Fed has been hoping for for the past decade will finally result in a

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 20:25

• Patients Victimized By Theranos Speak Out As Elizabeth Holmes' Fraud Trial Set To Begin
  Patients Victimized By Theranos Speak Out As Elizabeth Holmes’ Fraud Trial Set To Begin

  Earlier this summer, we highlighted a bombshell revelation concerning the federal fraud case against Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes. It appears that Theranos set a trap for the Feds that prosecutors walked right into. Here’s what happened.

  

  Back in 2018, Theranos turned over an encrypted copy of a database containing test results for thousands of patients. The database was supposed to serve as critical evidence that Theranos’s tests – which were run on competitors’ equipment that Theranos sometimes modified – provided fraudulent results. But somehow, the Feds never obtained the encryption key allowing them to access the data. Shortly afterwards, Theranos dismantled the original database, leaving the data lost forever.

  Because the Feds never got the key, all that data is lost, creating a serious problem for the Feds’ case, which must now depend on anecdotal evidence from patients who were allegedly defrauded. However, medical tests are actually frequently wrong, and the challenge for prosecutors now is there’s no obvious way for them to prove that Theranos’s tests were less accurate than their competitors. Holmes’ defense team complained to the judge that the loss of the database was a critical mistake by prosecutors, erasing proof of millions of accurate tests, exculpatory evidence they will no longer be able to use. The judge presiding over the case has proven sympathetic to this argument.

  Well, in its latest piece on Holmes’ trial, which is slated to begin later this month, WSJ lays out the difficult path ahead for prosecutors.

  To win conviction, prosecutors with the U.S. attorney’s office in the Northern District of California must persuade the jury that Theranos’s machines didn’t work, that Ms. Holmes knew it and that she lied about the technology to receive money from investors and patients.

  With the data, the case would have been a slam dunk. But without it, prosecutors are being forced to resort to the next-best thing: compelling human testimony. And according to WSJ, prosecutors intend to call 11 patients and roughly the same number of medical providers to testify about their experience being defrauded by Theranos.

  That’s why these witnesses and their testimony will be the “wild card” as everything will depend on how the jury perceives their testimony.

  Most of their stories haven’t been previously reported. So, WSJ obtained a copy of the witness list, and started reaching out for comment, eventually contacting more than 30 witnesses.

  The Journal reached out to more than 30 people on the list of potential witnesses for this article, including all of those identifiable as medical providers or patients. The witness list, which consists of more than 200 names but no other details, was proposed by prosecutors to be used in the vetting of prospective jurors.

  One witness, nurse practitioner JoEllen Embry, took her problems with the tests directly Theranos after her patients received several terrifying false positivies. She said she recalls “screaming” at Holmes, only to be brushed off by the executive (who probably used her fake deep speaking voice, making the encounter even more surreal).

  Ms. Embry, a large Theranos customer, recalled screaming at Mr. Holmes in a call, demanding an explanation for the inaccurate tests, the court records say. Mr. Holmes told her the Theranos machines were “calibrated for finger stick” blood draws, she recalled, to which she responded: “My patients never had finger stick draws,” but rather had blood drawn from their arms. She said Mr. Holmes replied: “We’ll figure this out.”

  Unfortunately for Holmes, text messages obtained by prosecutors show Holmes knew about the deficiencies, yet kept offering the tests. In one message to her co-defendant, Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani, Holmes said she was “praying” the Theranos lab passed a federal inspection.

  Retired dentist Mehrl Ellsworth, who received a finger prick test that showed alarmingly high cancer markers indicating prostate cancer. In the end, the results were thrown out – but not before Dr. Ellsworth was thoroughly terrified.

  Instead of halting, Theranos kept running tests on Dr. Ellsworth, now 73, after his doctor advised him to get retested. The second one was normal for his age, and the third showed another big spike, again over 20.

  After that, Dr. Ellsworth recalled, Theranos sent a phlebotomist to his office who drew a full-size vial of blood. That result was normal again.

  Dr. Ellsworth, who has a background in microbiology, and his doctor concluded the high results were false positives. Dr. Ellsworth, now retired, said he had always suspected the Theranos test results were wrong.

  Finally, as WSJ points out, plenty of the discovery evidence has yet to be heard by the press. And there are plenty of witnesses who have yet to speak out. As jury selection begins, expect both the defense to go on a leaking spree. By the time it’s all over, there will be plenty of material for another round of documentaries and podcasts based on Holmes.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 20:05

• "Don't Go Anywhere Near Your Grandkids": Australian Health Official Warns Grandparents
  “Don’t Go Anywhere Near Your Grandkids”: Australian Health Official Warns Grandparents

  Authored by Caden Pearsen via The Epoch Times,

  Queensland Chief Health Officer (CHO) Jeannette Young has warned unvaccinated grandparents not to go “anywhere near” their grandchildren as the CCP virus Delta variant spreads to four schools in the Australian state.

  

  This comes as Queensland recorded 16 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, all linked to a cluster at Indooroopilly High School in the state’s capital city, Brisbane.

  One of the new cases was another student at Indooroopilly High School, two at Brisbane Grammar School, two at Brisbane Girl’s Grammar School, three at Iron Side State School, five household family members connected to the new cases, and one neighbour of one of the known cases.

  “If you’re a grandparent of one of these kids, one of these households, and you haven’t been vaccinated, please don’t go anywhere near your grandkids,” Young told reporters on Tuesday.

  Young is also concerned that authorities have not yet been able to trace the outbreak to its source.

  “We know the very first two cases that arrived into Queensland on the 29th of June, but I don’t know how it’s got from either of those two people to the first family in that Indooroopilly, Taringa area,” she said.

  The state’s CHO also said that while she wished to vaccinate every teacher, there weren’t enough vaccine doses, but she urged any teacher of the age of 60 to get the AstraZeneca jab. “Younger teachers need to go and make that decision with their GP,” she added.

  

  A view of Indooroopilly State High School in Brisbane, Friday, July 30, 2021. (AAP Image/Dan Peled)

  The Indooroopilly High School cluster has now grown to 47, with over 4,000 people now directed by the CHO to quarantine at home as a result.

  Queensland Deputy Premier Steven Miles reminded residents of their legal obligation to remain at their homes if the CHO has directed them to do so.

  “While all of us in the southeast (of Queensland) have to stay home, those who are subject to home quarantine directions are legally required to stay home,” Miles said.

  “They cannot leave home except in an emergency or to get a test.”

  Outlining the rules of home quarantine, Miles said people under these directions could not leave their residences unless it is to seek essential medical care, avoid injury or illness, escape the risk of harm, or to get tested for COVID-19, the disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus.

  People who are subject to home quarantine directives who need supplies or assistance can contact the Community Recovery Hotline on 1800 173 349.

  Queensland Health Minister Yvette D’Ath said, “The message this time, for this lockdown, is simple: don’t ask yourself ‘Can I go out?’ ask yourself ‘Should I go out?’” D’Ath said. “‘Is the reason I’m leaving my home so important it is worth risking an extension to the lockdown?’”

  The Queensland government on Monday urged people to reconsider the need to attend work, even if they had done so during previous lockdowns.

  Home learning is in place for Queensland state schools from Tuesday until the end of the week, with private schools having similar arrangements, Miles said on Monday. “This is the first time that we’ve seen an outbreak like this one, spreading in schools amongst students, teachers, and parents,” he said.

  “It will likely see thousands of people subject to home quarantine directions,” he added.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 19:45

• Infrastructure Bill Mandates Drunk-Driver Detectors For New Cars
  Infrastructure Bill Mandates Drunk-Driver Detectors For New Cars

  The $1 trillion infrastructure bill – a bipartisan 2,702-page bill that has been locked in negotiations for months between Democrats and Republicans will mandate all new vehicles must have the technology to detect drunk drivers and alert systems to check backseats before turning off the vehicle. A final vote is likely before next Monday. 

  Sensors embedded within the vehicle’s cabin will track the driver’s eye moment and monitor signs of being distracted, impaired, or tired. Bloomberg notes this technology is similar to ones that police officers use when pulling over suspected drunk drivers.

  

  Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat, released a statement that read: “We can’t wait any longer to make our roads safer from drunk driving accidents.” She went on to say, “The inclusion of my bill in the bipartisan infrastructure package will help incentivize the development and implementation of technology to stop drunk driving once and for all and save lives.”

  Another provision in the bill was to combat deaths of children accidentally left in hot cars called a “door logic” alert that reminds drivers to check the backseat when turning off the engine. 

  Janette Fennell, president of Kids and Car Safety, said more than 1,000 children had died in hot cars since 1990. 

  “The Senate version is only requesting a reminder system that does not detect anything,” Fennell said. “It does not let you know if there is an actual child in the back seat.”

  Other provisions in the bill include mandates for automatic braking and crash avoidance systems and rear guards for semitrailer trucks. 

  Majority Leader Chuck Schumer plans to push the bill into a vote before the monthlong break beginning Aug. 9. In the coming days, the passage of the infrastructure bill proves pivotal for President Biden’s economic agenda. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 19:25

• Virtue Signaling: What Is It And Why Is It So Dangerous?
  Virtue Signaling: What Is It And Why Is It So Dangerous?

  Authored by Olivia Eriksen via RealClearEnergy.com,

  If you say the phrase ‘virtue signaling’ nowadays, the chances are you’ll be met with people becoming increasingly defensive, claiming that everything has to be picked apart and overanalysed.

  However, that’s not the case.

  This article is going to unpack what exactly virtue signaling is, discuss why it’s so dangerous, and offer some examples of everyday virtue signaling from both the wider public and public organisations.

  

  So, what is virtue signaling?

  Virtue signaling is defined at the act of publicly expressing opinions in order to demonstrate that you are a good person. However, this has become muddied with placing more importance on the appearance of moral correctness, than the correctness itself.

  There are of course some instances in which claiming that a person or organisation is virtue signaling is untrue, however there are many cases in which good is only done at the bare minimum level, and it’s only done in order to receive praise. This is dangerous virtue signaling.

  Why is it so dangerous?

  There are a number of reasons why virtue signaling is dangerous, not least because it encourages a climate of reduced empathy and understanding of others, the motives behind acts become warped, and it creates a world in which the bare minimum becomes the accepted standard.

  Doing a good deed to help another should come from a place of empathy and compassion. But, when it is done to serve a selfish desire for public praise, this understanding for others is shallow at best. A social injustice cannot be truly understood if someone is only looking at it in terms of how they can utilise it to boost their public image. When good deeds become less about doing good and more about self-promotion, are they really good deeds anymore?

  There is an argument to be made that whatever the motive, doing good will be beneficial to someone, somewhere, however all too often when virtue signaling is involved, it’s likely that only the bare minimum of support is being given. And, when virtue signaling is normalised, so too is this minimal level of effort, and it doesn’t take long for this level to become the accepted standard.

  Virtue signaling in the wider public

  Social media is a massive culprit for opening the door to mass virtue signaling in the greater public. With offering support being as easy – and requiring very little thought – as sharing someone’s Instagram story, or re-tweeting something on Twitter, feeds have been flooded with posts that stand up against social issues.

  While this is great and is a vital step towards affecting change, it’s telling how quickly the support fades. Take the Black Lives Matter movement of 2020, and the Sarah Everard case of this year as examples. For weeks after the horrendous events that triggered these social movements, social media was overflowing with support for those affected by racial or gendered discrimination and abuse. But, for as quickly as the support came, it disappeared just as fast. Social media has made virtue signaling trendy, which ultimately offers no help to those who need it.

  Examples within public organisations

  Countless companies have been accused of virtue signaling in one form or another, with arguably the biggest being greenwashing. Younger generations are taking on the burden of trying to resolve our planet’s climate crisis, and are standing up to anyone who is falsely advertising their efforts to help. Greenwashing is when false information is provided on how environmentally friendly a company or person is. Given the current climate emergency, greenwashing has got to be one of the worst forms of virtue signaling around.

  Quorn foods have come under fire for misrepresenting their carbon footprint as smaller than it is; numerous cleaning product companies have been challenged on their claims of products being ‘non-toxic’ while containing ingredients that are harmful to people, animals, and the environment; and Nestlé chocolate have been confronted over their claims of producing ‘sustainably sourced chocolate’, while their cocoa supply chain has been shown to have virtually no environmental standards in place.

  No one should be able to get away with pulling the wool over others’ eyes by way of virtue signaling, no matter how big the company.

  We can, and should, do better. In a world where education is more accessible than ever, there is no excuse for showing virtue outwardly but refusing to do the work internally to back this up. I wonder how much ‘good’ we’d see online and in adverts if there was no one watching. We need to be able to recognise when our actions are more virtue signaling than genuinely virtuous, in order to affect real change and be true allies to those who need them.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 19:05

• Former Intel Chief Pushing To Move 2022 Beijing Olympics "On National Security Grounds"
  Former Intel Chief Pushing To Move 2022 Beijing Olympics “On National Security Grounds”

  President Trump’s final director of national intelligence during the last months of the administration is a well-known China hawk who previously dubbed China “National Security Threat No. 1”. This week John Ratcliffe is garnering new attention for urging the IOC to move the 2022 Winter Olympics from Beijing.

  Former DNI Ratcliffe told Axios that the Chinese Communist Party’s “mass cover-up of COVID’s origins and its initial outbreak, in addition to its crimes against humanity in Xinjiang” mean the games should be moved “on national security grounds”. 

  

  The Winter Olympics are scheduled to open in Beijing in a mere six months, opening on February 4 and running through February 20, based in Beijing and towns in neighboring Hebei province.

  “We’ve got to get our priorities in order, and standing strong against the CCP’s global ambitions must be at the top of the list,” Ratcliffe added in the fresh statements.

  As we detailed earlier, Ratcliffe excoriated China in a Monday Op-Ed or rejecting new plans by the World Health Organization to investigate the lab-leak theory, which was “remarkable not only because of China’s continued belligerence, but also because the WHO was once complicit, caving to the CCP’s initial pressure to dismiss the lab leak theory and downplay the CCP’s coverup.”

  He further wrote for FOX that while the 2022 Winter Games should happen, “We should not punish hard-working athletes who have dedicated their lives to preparing for this moment.”

  Instead, “the world – and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) – should not allow Beijing to enjoy the benefits of hosting a massive global event while rejecting transparency and refusing to allow inquiries into, much less answering for, the deaths of millions of people around the world” – in reference to the global COVID-19 pandemic.

  

  He went on to slam the Biden administration for failing to hold Beijing accountable, noting that going through with allowing China to host the upcoming winter games will only do the opposite – that is boost their global reputation.

  “The seven Olympic values are friendship, excellence, respect, courage, determination, inspiration and equality. The CCP’s coverup of the virus’s origins have proven once again that they are no friend of the world,” Ratcliffe wrote.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 18:45

• US Navy Sends Ship To Shadow Hijacked Tanker As It Heads Toward Iranian Waters
  US Navy Sends Ship To Shadow Hijacked Tanker As It Heads Toward Iranian Waters

  (update-6:37PM eastern): The US State Department late in the day has said it is aware of reports that the Panama-flagged Asphalt Princess has been hijacked by multiple heavily armed militants. 

  The ship is reportedly headed for Iranian waters, after multiple reports pointed the finger at an Iranian forces hijack incident in progress, though details have still remained murky and unconfirmed as the ship continues to move.

  Lloyd’s List understands from sources directly involved in the incident that armed forces have boarded the vessel, which last signalled its position around 5pm London time, and are directing it towards Iran. https://t.co/jUlikl4mr9

  — Richard Meade (@Lloydslisted) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Iran has meanwhile issued a formal denial that it’s forces are behind Tuesday’s events off the coast of UAE, as Bloomberg reports:

  Saeed Khatibzadeh, spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, denied reports that Iran’s forces boarded moving ships in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman and warned against “rumors and the fake news of Western and Zionist media,” according to the semi-official Tasnim news.

  Earlier he called the incident “utterly suspicious” and said Iran was prepared to provide assistance to any ships in distress in the area and help with efforts to investigate the event.

  Late in the day there are new reports that the US Navy is sending a vessel to the vicinity as part of the continuing investigation of the fluid situation.

  US naval vessel sent to monitor the situation with Asphalt Princess https://t.co/jfYS0KVYmx

  — ForexLive (@ForexLive) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The United States military is expected to reposition at least one vessel in the general vicinity of the Asphalt Princess to keep a closer eye, U.S. officials say. The officials add this is to monitor the situation rather than any imminent military moves.

  — Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  (update-12:50PM eastern): A flurry of bizarre and unconfirmed reports are coming out of the Gulf waters where one or more foreign vessels are believed seized by the Iranians, however, which Tehran is denying, calling the reports “suspicious”. Britain’s Sky News reports:

  A group of eight or nine armed individuals are believed to have boarded the vessel, named Asphalt Princess, the security source told Sky News.

  “It was an unauthorised boarding in the Gulf of Oman,” the security source said. There is no British link to the tanker.

  It comes as the Associated Press reported that at least four vessels sent out warnings saying they had lost control of their steering.

  And then there’s this hugely alarming unconfirmed report circulating…

  Was the archduke on board? https://t.co/EQgjnnbus0

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  (update-12:38PM eastern): While there are still many unknowns about the developing distressed tanker incident in the Persian Gulf off the UAE coast, including whether the incident has impacted one or possibly up to a few tankers, reports are now pointing to a hijacking in progress likely by Iranian forces.

  Journalist and defense editor for the UK Times Larisa Brown is citing British government sources to say the Panamanian-flagged Asphalt Princess has been boarded by hostile entities.

  British sources believe Asphalt Princess has been hijacked. They are working on the assumption Iranian military or proxies have boarded vessel https://t.co/2eETCX9i74

  — Larisa Brown (@larisamlbrown) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  ‘A security source for Sky News: There is a possibility that a team of 8 or 9 armed men hijacked the Asphalt Princess.’

  “It was an unauthorised boarding in the #GulfOfOman,” the security source said.” https://t.co/7sfQz2iyio

  — World Citizen (@WorldCitizenLA) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The vessel now appears to be moving, according to real-time tracking data, viewable here.

  Incoming reports that the oil tanker ASPHALT PRINCESS has been boarded and seized by Iranian forces. pic.twitter.com/0gTwGGSeC0

  — Atlas News (@Atlas_News_) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Earlier speculation abounded over reports that the nearby Golden Brilliant may be under distress as well, possibly in a mine attack incident.

  First Golden Brilliant
  now Asphalt Princess. https://t.co/ZeAQkTqOdm

  — Dan Graeber (@dan_graeber) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  (update-11:22AM eastern): Statements from Iranian state sources are saying a foreign tanker has struck a mine in the Persian Gulf.

  While few details are as yet known or confirmed, international maritime aerial patrols are said to be en route to observe the vessel or vessels directly, possibly including US aircraft in the region.

  And who planted the naval mine? https://t.co/YvMxAAX6uR

  — Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  However, these early reports out of Iran remain unconfirmed, but seem to point to another major security incident unfolding after last Thursday’s deadly drone attack on the Israeli-managed Mercer Street tanker.

  One of the potentially distressed tankers is Singaporean flagged ‘Golden Brilliant’ chemical ship. Interestingly, it’s managed by “the same company that managed the Andrea Victory, which Iran attacked with a limpet mine in May 2019,” according to one observer.

  Iranian Fars Agency: A mine exploded in a tanker in international waters in the Gulf of Oman https://t.co/cHNUuRYZsT

  — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Omani observer aircraft are said to now be over waters where one or more vessels may be disabled.

  #BreakingNews Unconfirmed reports involving the vessel ASPHALT PRINCESS off Fujairah.
  We know:
  👉 incident reported ongoing by UKMTO location 24 59.5N 057 28.6E
  👉 incident reported 1230UTC
  👉 Omani Royal Air Force C-295 maritime patrol aircraft currently over reported location

  — Dryad Global (@GlobalDryad) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  If the mystery incident is confirmed to have been a mine attack, expect the US military to be en route…

  This MH-53E is equipped to clear mines pic.twitter.com/68pvfQI6fV

  — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  The UK has ordered ships to exercise extreme caution in Persian Gulf waters off UAE’s coast as an unknown incident is unfolding, though few details have initially been given.

  A non-piracy incident is currently underway east of Fujairah, with “investigations ongoing,” an urgent alert from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) indicates. “The warning notice, based on a third party source, advised vessels in the area to exercise extreme caution,” Reuters writes of the developing notification.

  Warning 001/Aug/2021

  Category: Incident – Non Piracy

  Description: An Incident is currently underway in position 2459.5N 05728.6E (Approx.
  61 NM East of Fujairah) Investigations ongoing.https://t.co/HAOeC8qZAJ#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/lah2vXIFWu

  — United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) (@UK_MTO) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It’s as yet unclear which vessel may be involved in a potential distressed situation, but open source maritime tracking information suggests at least one vessel has been deemed “not under command”. 

  In technical terms this simply means means that a vessel is unable to maneuver at this time.

  Oil tanker Golden Brilliant currently “not under command” in the Gulf of Oman pic.twitter.com/pt4J0CKr4r

  — ELINT News (@ELINTNews) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Reuters reports the following: 

  The Maersk Messina (Singapore flag), Asphalt Princess (Panama flag), and an unnamed tanker are in the area, according to MarineTraffic.

  The Front Crown and Golden Brilliant, both located nearby are listed as “Not Under Command”, meaning that through some exceptional circumstance, they are unable to maneuver and are therefore unable to keep out of the way of another vessel.

  The region is on edge following last week’s drone attack on an Israeli-linked oil tanker off Oman which left two international crew members dead. Israel and the US have warned they are preparing ‘action’ against Iran, which they blamed for the incident.

  Royal Omani Air Force C-295 maritime patrol aircraft for SAR on the way to the incident area in the Gulf of Oman now pic.twitter.com/3DZEHAY39t

  — ELINT News (@ELINTNews) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Iran for its part has said it will respond with a “strong and crushing” military response to any provocations. While the developing incident in the Gulf could simply be a vessel temporarily experiencing technical difficulties, there are fears of a new incident related to the renewed Iran and Israel ‘shadow war’ in the region.

  Current situation:

  No one knows what the heck is happening. UKMTO issued a “non piracy” related warning. Some British connected tankers have taken odd tracks. Apart from that, we have very little.

  — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Iranian state media is reporting this, however:

  Iranian Fars Agency: A mine exploded in a tanker in international waters in the Gulf of Oman https://t.co/cHNUuRYZsT

  — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  developing…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 18:38

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Germany Sends Warship To Contested South China Sea For First Time In 2 Decades
  Germany Sends Warship To Contested South China Sea For First Time In 2 Decades

  In an almost unprecedented move, Germany has joined the US and UK in bolstering its military presence in the South China Sea, on Monday sending a warship to contested waters to counter China’s expanding territorial ambitions for the first time in two decades.

  Reuters cited defense officials in Berlin who said “the German navy will stick to common trade routes,” who further described that “The frigate is not expected to sail through the Taiwan Strait either, another regular U.S. activity condemned by Beijing.”

  

  “Nevertheless, Berlin has made it clear the mission serves to stress the fact Germany does not accept China’s territorial claims,” the report added.

  German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in a fresh statement stressed that “We want existing law to be respected, sea routes to be freely navigable, open societies to be protected and trade to follow fair rules.” And a statement made last week by Kramp-Karrenbauer explained that “Stronger defense and security cooperation fills the multilateralism that is so important to us with life and strengthens the partnership with friends in Australia, Japan, South Korea and Singapore.”

  The German frigate now en route to the region has been identified as the “Bayern” – which is kicking off a seven month voyage to the Indo-Pacific, including stops in Australia, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. As the maritime monitoring site Naval News details:

  On the way, exercises are planned with the navies of Australia, Singapore, Japan and the United States of America.

  …The vessel is expected to cross the South China Sea in mid-December, making it the first German warship to pass through the region since 2002.

  

  US pass throughs of the contested Taiwan Strait – again which Germany is not expected to undertake itself – have now been a monthly feature of President Biden’s policy and stance toward China. 

  Berlin has the added pressure, however, of not wanting to introduce new tensions with Beijing given China has lately become Germany’s most important trading partner.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 02:45

• UN Special Rapporteur On Torture Requests Info On German Police Brutalizing Anti-Lockdown Protesters
  UN Special Rapporteur On Torture Requests Info On German Police Brutalizing Anti-Lockdown Protesters

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  The UN’s Special Rapporteur on Torture Nils Melzer has requested more information on an incident in which a female anti-lockdown protester in Berlin was grabbed by the throat and brutally thrown to the ground by riot police.

  

  As we highlighted earlier, the demonstrations ended up with a whopping 600 people being arrested amidst innumerable brazen examples of police brutality, including against children, that were caught on camera.

  Germans were protesting against plans to ban unvaccinated people from a plethora of different venues, including restaurants, cinemas and stadiums.

  One video clip shows an elderly protester merely attempting to walk past a police officer dressed in riot gear before he grabs her neck with both hands and throws her to the floor.

  The EU would be condemning this as regime brutality if it was Russia but since it’s Germany they will support it instead.pic.twitter.com/3aXM4QFRif

  — Stan (@StanM3) August 1, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Cops were obviously given orders to enforce a draconian crackdown on the protesters given their behavior throughout the day, which looked like something out of the 1930’s.

  The clip caught the attention of Nils Melzer, a professor of international law, whose official title is United Nations Special Rapporteur on Torture and other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment.

  “This has just been brought to my attention,” tweeted Melzer.

  “Can anyone provide my office with the specifics / witness statements of this incident and whether an official investigation has been launched?” he asked.

  This has just been brought to my attention.

  Can anyone provide my office with the specifics / witness statements of this incident and whether an official investigation has been launched?

  Send to: sr-torture@ohchr.org
  (please not via Twitter-reply/DM)

  Thank you! https://t.co/ly00UlPDMw

  — Nils Melzer (@NilsMelzer) August 1, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It’s highly unlikely that any investigation will take place given that riot police were clearly ordered to conduct themselves with wanton disregard for basic dignity and human rights.

  Another video clip showed a police officer reacting to a young boy’s concern over the treatment of his mother by forcefully pushing him to the floor by his head.

  Berlin, this cop is hitting a little boy in the head for worrying about his mom. 🤬🤯 pic.twitter.com/3RQNKwzzbu

  — Willow (@Willow__Bella) August 1, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Another clip shows two old women also being pushed to the floor by police.

  Police shove elderly people to your ground to protect their health. Welcome to Berlin. pic.twitter.com/Jlvj3DBIF7

  — Ian Miles Cheong @ stillgray.substack.com (@stillgray) August 1, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Another protester also collapsed and died while being harassed by police to show his ID.

  Anti-lockdown protesters have been vilified and dehumanized by the media and by vaccine cultists who lobby for them to be treated like lepers.

  That’s why such scenes, which would cause outrage if they occurred at a Black Lives Matter or LGBT march, are either totally ignored or callously celebrated.

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/03/2021 – 02:00

• Escobar: The Taliban Go To Tianjin
  Escobar: The Taliban Go To Tianjin

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

  China and Russia will be key to solving an ancient geopolitical riddle: how to pacify the ‘graveyard of empires’…

  

  So this is the way the Forever War in Afghanistan ends – if one could call it an ending. Rather, it’s an American repositioning.

  Regardless, after two decades of death and destruction and untold trillions of dollars, we’re faced not with a bang – and not with a whimper, either – but rather with a pic of the Taliban in Tianjin, a nine-man delegation led by top political commissioner Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, solemnly posing side by side with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

  Lateral echoes of another Forever War – in Iraq – apply. First, there was the bang: the US not as “the new OPEC,” as per how the neo-con mantra had visualized it, but with the Americans not even getting the oil. Then came the whimper: “No more troops” after December 31, 2021 – except for the proverbial “contractor” army.      

  The Chinese received the Taliban on an official visit in order once again to propose a very straightforward quid pro quo: We recognize and support your political role in the process of Afghan reconstruction and in return you cut off any possible links with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, regarded by the UN as a terrorist organization and responsible for a slew of attacks in Xinjiang.

  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang explicitly said, “The Taliban in Afghanistan is a pivotal military and political force in the country, and will play an important role in the process of peace, reconciliation, and reconstruction there.”

  This follows Wang’s remarks back in June, after a meeting with the foreign ministers of Afghanistan and Pakistan, when he promised not only to “bring the Taliban back into the political mainstream” but also to host a serious intra-Afghan peace negotiation. 

  What’s implied since then is that the excruciatingly slow process in Doha is leading nowhere. Doha is being conducted by the extended troika – US, Russia, China, Pakistan – along with the irreconcilable adversaries, the Kabul government and the Taliban.  

  

  Mullah Baradar speaks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right foreground) in Tianjin. Photo: Chinese Foreign Ministry

  Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem stressed that the Tianjin meeting focused on political, economic and security issues, with the Taliban assuring Beijing that Afghan territory would not be exploited by third parties against the security interests of neighboring nations.

  This means, in practice, no shelter for Uighur, Chechen and Uzbek jihadis and shady outfits of the ISIS-Khorasan variety.   

  Tianjin has been added as a sort of jewel in the crown to the current Taliban diplomatic offensive, which has already touched Tehran and Moscow.

  What this means in practice is that the real power broker of a possible intra-Afghan deal is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), led by the Russia-China strategic partnership.

  Russia and China are meticulously monitoring how the Taliban have been capturing several strategic districts in provinces from Badakhshan (Tajik majority) to Kandahar (Pashtun majority). Realpolitik dictates that the Taliban be accepted as serious interlocutors. 

  Pakistan, meanwhile, is working closer and closer within the SCO framework. Prime Minister Imran Khan could not be more adamant when addressing US public opinion: “Washington aimed for a military solution in Afghanistan, when there never was one,” he said.

  “And people like me who kept saying that there’s no military solution, who know the history of Afghanistan, we were called – people like me were called anti-American,” he said. “I was called Taliban Khan.”

  

  Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan (R) meets with Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (2d from the window on the left side of the picture) and his delegation in Islamabad on December 18, 2020. Photo: AFP / Pakistan Prime Minister Office

  We are all Taliban now

  The fact is that “Taliban Khan,” “Taliban Wang” and “Taliban Lavrov” are all on the same page.

  The SCO is working all-out to present a road map for a Kabul-Taliban political settlement in the next round of negotiations in August. As I have been chronicling it – see, for instance, here and here – it’s all about a comprehensive economic integration package, where the Belt and Road Initiative and its affiliated China-Pakistan Economic Corridor interacts with Russia’s Greater Eurasia Partnership and overall Central Asia-South Asia connectivity.  

  A stable Afghanistan is the missing link in what could be described as the future SCO economic corridor, which will integrate every Eurasian player from BRICS members India and Russia to all Central Asian ‘stans.

  Both President Ashraf Ghani’s government in Kabul and the Taliban are on board. The devil, of course, is in the details of how to manage the internal power play in Afghanistan to make it happen.   

  The Taliban have done their crash course on geopolitics and geoeconomics. In Moscow, in early July, they had a detailed discussion with Kremlin envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov.

  In parallel, even the former Afghan ambassador to China, Sultan Baheen – no Taliban himself – admitted that for the majority of Afghans, irrespective of ethnic background, Beijing is the preferred interlocutor and mediator in an evolving peace process.    

  So the Taliban seeking high-level discussions with the Russia-China strategic partnership is part of a carefully calculated political strategy. But that brings us to an extremely complex question: To which Taliban are we referring? 

  There’s no such thing as a “unified” Taliban. Most old-school top leaders live in Pakistan’s Balochistan. The new breed is way more volatile – and feels no political constraints. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement, with a little help from Western intel, might easily infiltrate some Taliban factions inside Afghanistan. 

  Very few in the West understand the dramatic psychological consequences for Afghans – whatever their ethnic, social or cultural backgrounds – of living essentially under a state of non-stop war for the past four decades: USSR occupation; intra-mujahideen fighting; Taliban against Northern Alliance; and US/NATO occupation.

  

  In February 1980 Afghan refugees who have fled the area of Kabul in December 1979, are shown in the Aza Khel refugee camp near Peshawar in Pakistan. Photo: AFP / EPU

  The last “normal” year in Afghan society was way back in 1978.     

  Andrei Kazantsev, a professor at the Higher School of Economics and director of the Center for Central Asia and Afghanistan Studies at the elite MGIMO in Moscow, is uniquely positioned to understand how things work on the ground.

  He notes something I saw for myself numerous times; how wars in Afghanistan are a mix of weaponizing and negotiation:

  There is a little fighting, a little talking, coalitions are formed, then there is fighting again; talking again.

  Some have defected over, betrayed each other, fought for a while, and then returned. It’s a completely different culture of warfare and negotiation.

  The Taliban will simultaneously negotiate with the government and continue their military offensives. These are just different tools of different wings of this movement.

  I’m buying: how much?

  The most important fact is that the Taliban are, de facto, a constellation of warlord militias. What this means is that Mullah Baradar in Tianjin does not speak for the whole movement. He would have to hold a shura with every major warlord and commander to sell them whatever political road map he agrees with Russia and China.

  This is a huge problem as certain powerful Tajik or Uzbek commanders will prefer to align themselves with foreign sources, say Turkey or Iran, instead of whoever will be in power in Kabul.

  The Chinese might find a detour around the problem by literally buying everyone and his neighbor. But that still wouldn’t guarantee stability.

  What Russia-China are investing in with the Taliban is to extract iron-clad guarantees:

  • Don’t allow jihadis to cross Central Asian borders – especially Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan;

  • Fight ISIS-Khorasan head-on and don’t allow them sanctuary, as the Taliban did with al-Qaeda in the 1990s; and

  • Be done with opium poppy cultivation (you did give it up in the early 2000s) while fighting against drug trafficking.

  

  An Afghan farmer harvests opium sap from a poppy field in Dara-l-Nur, District of Nangarhar province, in 2020. Photo: AFP / Wali Sabawoon / NurPhoto

  No one really knows whether the Taliban political wing will be able to deliver. Yet Moscow, much more than Beijing, has been very clear: If the Taliban go soft on jihadi movements, they will feel the full wrath of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

  The SCO, for its part, has kept an Afghan contact group since 2005. Afghanistan is an SCO observer and may be accepted as a full member once there’s a political settlement.

  The key problem inside the SCO will be to harmonize the clashing interests of India and Pakistan inside Afghanistan.

  Once again, that will be up to the “superpowers” – the Russia-China strategic partnership. And once again, that will be at the heart of arguably the top geopolitical riddle of the Raging Twenties : how to finally pacify the “graveyard of empires.”  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 23:40

• Americans Tend To Stick To Their Stance On COVID-19 Vaccines
  Americans Tend To Stick To Their Stance On COVID-19 Vaccines

  As U.S. health officials and the Biden administration desperately try to kickstart the stalling rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in face of the highly contagious Delta variant, President Biden gave a speech on Thursday, where he once again urged Americans to get vaccinated and announced additional steps to encourage vaccination.

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Echoing statements from the CDC and his chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, Statista’s Felix Richter notes that Biden referred to the current situation of rising infections as a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”, calling the fact that unvaccinated Americans are dying despite the availability of an effective vaccine “an American tragedy”. He went on to emphasize that getting vaccinated is not a political statement, nor is it a proper exercise of personal freedom. “With freedom comes responsibility,” Biden said. “Your decision to be unvaccinated impacts someone else. So, please, exercise responsible judgement. Get vaccinated — for yourself, for the people you love, for your country.”

  Biden then urged employers to offer paid time off for workers to get themselves and family members vaccinated. He also called on local and state governments to offer a $100 cash bonus to those who get fully vaccinated, hoping that a little monetary incentive could at least sway those undecided on whether to get jabbed. Finally, stopping just short of a mask mandate for federal employees, he announced several inconveniences for unvaccinated federal workers, including a mask mandate, strict testing rules and being banned from work-related travel.

  As the following chart, based on findings from KFF’s COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor, suggests, Americans aren’t easily persuaded when it comes to their stance on COVID-19 vaccines.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Having circled back to a group of respondents originally surveyed in January, KFF found that two thirds of those who did not want to get a vaccination in January stand firm on their refusal to get jabbed, with another 9 percent wanting to wait and see.

  Meanwhile 24 percent of those against the vaccine in January ended up with at least one dose in June, most of them convinced by family members or their employers. Of those who were keen to get vaccinated in January, 92 percent have received at least one dose by now, while another 3 percent plan to get it asap.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 23:20

• Is This What's Really Behind The War On Home-Ownership?
  Is This What’s Really Behind The War On Home-Ownership?

  Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

  Becoming a “Nation of Renters” is clearly a big part of the New Normal…

  

  The incipient “Great Reset” is a multi-faceted beast. We talk a lot about vaccine passports and lockdowns and the Covid-realated aspects – and we should – but there’s more to it than that.

  Remember, they want you to “own nothing and be happy”. And right at the top of the list of things you definitely shouldn’t own, is your own home.

  The headlines about this have been steady for the last few years, but it has picked up pace in the wake of the “pandemic” (as has so much else). An agenda hidden on back pages, behind by Covid’s meaningless big red numbers, but perhaps no less sinister.

  You can find articles all over the net talking up renting over owning.

  Last month, for example, Bloomberg ran an article headlined:

  America Should Become a Nation of Renters”

  Which praises what they call “the liquefaction of the housing market” and gleefully expounds on the idea that “The very features that made home buying an affordable and stable investment are coming to an end.”

  The Atlantic published “Why Its Better To Rent Than Own” in March.

  Financial pages from Business Insider to Forbes to Yahoo and Bloomberg again are filled with lists titled “9 Ways Renting is Better Than Buying”, or similar.

  Other publications go more personal with it, with anecdotal columns about ignoring financial advice and refusing to buy your home. Vox, never one to sell their agenda with any kind of subtlety, have a piece titled:

  Homeownership can bring out the worst in you

  Which literally argues that buying a house can make you a bad person:

  It’s the biggest thing you might ever buy. And it could be turning you into a bad person.

  So what exactly is the narrative here? What’s the story behind the story?

  The short answer is fairly simple: It’s about greed, and it’s about control.

  It almost always is, in the end.

  The longer answer is rather more complicated. Major investment firms such as Vanguard and Blackrock, along with rental companies such as American Homes 4 Rent, are buying up single-family homes in record numbers – sometimes entire neighbourhoods at a time.

  They pay well over market value, pricing families who want to own those homes out of the market, which forces the housing market up whilst the Lockdown-created recession is lowering wages and creating millions of newly unemployed.

  Of course, this is motivating people to sell the houses they already own.

  People all across America have been saddled with houses worth less than they bought them for since the 2008 economic crash, and are eager to take the cash from private investment firms paying 10-20% over market value. Combine an economic recession with a created housing boom and you have a huge population of motivated sellers.

  Of course, many of these sellers don’t realise, until it’s too late, that even if they attempt to downsize or move to a cheaper area, they may be priced out of the market completely, and forced to rent.

  As such, in the last year, the private investment share of single-family home purchases is estimated to have increased ten-fold, going from 2% in 2018 to over 20% this year.

  As more and more people are forced to rent, of course, rental properties will be in higher and higher demand. This in turn will drive the cost of renting up.

  Market Watch has already reported that, in the last year, rent has increased over 3x faster than the government predicted.

  This problem is likely to get worse in the near future.

  Last night, Congress “accidentally failed” to extend the Covid-related eviction ban.

  Which means, this weekend, while Senators adjourn to the summer homes they probably don’t rent, the ban will officially end and a lot of people are likely to have their houses foreclosed or their landlords kick them out.

  The newly empty buildings will be a feeding frenzy for the massive corporate landlords. Who will descend on the banks like starving hyenas to snap up the foreclosed properties for pennies on the dollar. Just like they did in 2008.

  None of this is any secret, it’s been covered in the mainstream. Tucker Carlson even did a segment on it in early June.

  The Wall Street Journal headlined, back in April, “If You Sell a House These Days, the Buyer Might Be a Pension Fund”, and reported:

  Yield-chasing investors are snapping up single-family homes, competing with ordinary Americans and driving up prices

  However, since then, something has clearly changed. The propaganda machine has kicked into gear to defend Wall Street from any backlash.

  No better example of this shift can be found than The Atlantic, which ran this story in 2019:

  WHEN WALL STREET IS YOUR LANDLORD

  With help from the federal government, institutional investors became major players in the rental market. They promised to return profits to their investors and convenience to their tenants. Investors are happy. Tenants are not.

  …and this story last month:

  BLACKROCK IS NOT RUINING THE US HOUSING MARKET

  The real villain isn’t a faceless Wall Street Goliath; it’s your neighbors and local governments stopping the construction of new units.

  Going back to the Vox well we have:

  Wall Street isn’t to blame for the chaotic housing market

  Which ran just a few days after the Atlantic article, and is practically identical.

  Both these (oddly similar) articles argue that Wall Street and private equity firms can’t be blamed for buying up houses, and that the real problem is the lack of supply to meet demand.

  You see, all the “selfish” people who already own homes (they did say it makes you a bad person) are blocking the construction of new houses, and thus driving up the cost of property through scarcity.

  This has been a logically flawed argument around the housing market for decades.

  That there aren’t enough houses for people to buy is patently absurd when the US census data says that there are over 15 million houses currently standing empty. That’s enough to house all of America’s roughly 500,000 homeless people 30x over.

  There’s plenty of houses, there’s just not enough money to buy them.

  The reason for that is the same reason the California has massive “homeless camps” in its major cities, and that so many people are having to become renters instead of owners: wage stagnation.

  For decades now, wage increases have lagged behind increases in the cost of living. In the 1960s one full-time job could afford a decent standard of living for a family of four or more. These days both parents work, sometimes multiple jobs each.

  It was huge amounts of financial de-regulation which created this situation. So, whether you believe Vox’s BlackRock apologia or not, one way or another Wall Street very definitely is to blame.

  But this isn’t just about money. It never is. Just as the war on cash isn’t just about efficiency, and the environmental push isn’t just about climate change. Ditto veganism. It’s about control. Just like vaccines, lockdowns and masks.

  It always comes down to control.

  It’s an oft-used cliche, but no less true for that, that homeowning “gives people a stake in society”. A family-owned house is a source of security for the future and something to leave your children. It is also sovereignty and privacy. Your own space that no one else can control or take away.

  In short: A homeowner is independent. A renter is not. A renter can be controlled. A homeowner can not.

  It’s the same reasoning behind the way working people were encouraged to take out loans and become debt slaves. If you limit people’s options, if you make them rely on you for a roof over their heads, you have control over them.

  There’s a great article about this situation called “Your New Feudal Overlords”.

  Under Feudalism, land wasn’t owned by the working class, but provided to them by landed barons, hence the term “Land Lord”. If you disrespected your Lord, or broke his rules, or he perceived another peasant/farm animal/crop would be a better use of the land, he could take it back.

  Essentially, the behaviour of serfs was kept in check by their reliance on the nobility for a place to live. That’s very much the dynamic they’re going for here.

  Rental agreements can be full of any terms and conditions the landlord wants, and the more desperate people get the more of their consumer rights they will sign over.

  Maybe you’ll agree to smart meters which monitor your internet or power-usage habits, and then sell the data to behavioural modellers and viral marketers.

  Maybe you’ll have to agree to certain power limitations or water shortages in order to “fight climate change”.

  Maybe it will get worse than that.

  Maybe they’ll go full Black Mirror style corporate dystopia. Maybe, through affiliation programs, the mega-equity firm which owns your rental house has ties to McDonald’s, and as such will require you to not eat at any competing fast-food franchises, or demand you observe at least ninety seconds of Disney advertisements per day.

  Maybe it will be as simple as including vaccine status in the tenancy agreement, making it impossible for the unvaxxed to find a home.

  Maybe they just want to make poor people miserable.

  After all, the super-wealthy have got all the money they could ever need, and all the luxury they could ever use. Their living standards are as high as physically possible. So maybe the only way they can keep “winning”, is to start driving the living standards of us proles down.

  No air travel. No vacations. No going out at all. Live in a tiny house, or a pod. Eat bugs. Get rid of your car. Rent your clothes. Or your furniture. Pay taxes on sugar. And alcohol. And red meat.

  They’ve been very clear about this. They’ve told you about the Great Reset and the Internet of Things. That’s the plan.

  You won’t own a house. And you’ll be happy…or else the mega-corporation you’re forced to rent from will kick you out.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 23:00

• The $1.2 Billion Snub: Scholastic Corp. Boss Cuts Family From Will And Leaves Fortune To Former Lover
  The $1.2 Billion Snub: Scholastic Corp. Boss Cuts Family From Will And Leaves Fortune To Former Lover

  In a move that is likely going to prompt litigation for centuries to come, M. Richard “Dick” Robinson Jr., the late owner of Scholastic Corp., the book company responsible for publishing books like “Harry Potter”, has snubbed his family and left his entire fortune – worth $1.2 billion – to his former lover.

  Robinson died on June 5 while in Martha’s Vineyard and his will directed that his fortune be left to his “longtime romantic partner” Iole Lucchese, according to the NY Post.

  Lucchese is Scholastic’s chief strategy officer. A copy of Robinson’s will was reviewed by the Wall Street Journal, who said it called Lucchese “my partner and closest friend.” 

  Family members told the Journal they’re “unhappy” about the firm being left to Lucchese, who they called an “outsider”. They’re also apparently upset that Lucchese will have control of Robinson’s personal possessions, the report said.

  And so goes the the inevitable plunge into the legal system, as the family is reportedly “reviewing their legal options” and seeking to cut a deal with Lucchese.

  Robinson’s youngest son, who is 25, called the move “unexpected and shocking”. “What I want most is an amicable outcome,” he said. 

  

  Robinson’s 34 year old son said he had never even met or spoken to Lucchese. The family held a call with her last week. The son “operates a sawmill and workshop that produces lumber, flooring and furniture from trees in Martha’s Vineyard,” the Post reported. 

  Robinson’s younger brother said: “Our family value was we’d rather not have the financial benefit that we might get from a sale if it means the company won’t be in the future what it was. Everybody knows Scholastic and has a good feeling about it and it does good things for teachers. It’s more than just a business for us.”

  One of Robinson’s sisters commented to the Journal: “Our first goal is the continuation of the mission and legacy of Scholastic, the vision and brilliant lifework of both our father and our brother Dick, and we are confident that the new management of the company is fully committed to this goal.”

  Robinson’s will named Lucchese as co-executor of his will, alongside of Scholastic’s general counsel, Andrew Hedden. Lucchese is tasked with distributing Robinson’s personal possessions “with the request, but not the direction” that she hand out items “as she believes to be in accordance with my wishes,” the Post wrote.

  “You might think from the will that he didn’t see his sons. That’s not true. For the last two years I saw him multiple times a week,” Robinson’s youngest son said. 

  Robinson reportedly spoke about how he had to work his way up at the company, which neither of his sons did. Lucchese now owns 53.8% of the company’s Class A shares – about 3 million shares – which hold the majority of the the voting power. 
   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 22:40

• America's Chinese Fentanyl Flood
  America’s Chinese Fentanyl Flood

  Authored by Grant Newsham via The Epoch Times,

  Foreigners have been buying—or at least renting—America’s ruling class since the republic was founded. Almost exactly 225 years ago, in his 1796 Farewell Address, George Washington warned against “the insidious wiles of foreign influence,” adding that “foreign influence is one of the most baneful foes of republican government.”

  

  In modern times, Saudis, Japanese, South Koreans, and Israelis—to name a few—have all managed to purchase influence. But the usual goal is to gain advantages for their own nations. What we are seeing now is something much more dangerous—using influence to corrode the United States from within.

  One nation is pouring highly addictive and unpredictable illicit drugs into the American bloodstream – killing tens of thousands a year. And the American elites are doing absolutely nothing about it. Now THAT is influence.

  The drug? Fentanyl. The country? Communist China.

  Fentanyl mostly originates in China, often moving via Mexico (and Mexican drug gangs) into the United States. The Chinese are also into the money laundering part of the business—helping drug gangs launder (or recycle) their massive earnings. Talk about a “win-win”—as the Chinese communists like to say.

  Casualties

  The deluge started around 2013 and has picked up steadily since then. The numbers are staggering.

  In 2017, 28,000 Americans died of overdoses involving fentanyl.

  In a 2018 meeting with President Donald Trump, Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledged to restrict all fentanyl-like substances. Trump declared this a “gamechanger.” Not surprisingly, the fentanyl and drugs kept flowing.

  In 2019, over 37,000 Americans died from fentanyl overdoses. That’s nearly five times the number of American troops killed in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

  In 2020, the U.S. government reported 93,000 American residents died from a drug overdose—the vast majority from fentanyl poisoning. The COVID-19 lockdowns have helped bump up the already horrific death totals.

  Yet, even as the death toll mounts, U.S. businesses and financial titans never mention it. The think tanks are mostly silent. Academia? Can’t be bothered. The U.S. media often downplays or ignores the fentanyl bloodbath, and even more so the source, seemingly afraid to mention the C-word, China.

  

  Packets of fentanyl mostly in powder form and methamphetamine, which U.S. Customs and Border Protection say they seized from a truck crossing into Arizona from Mexico, is on display during a news conference at the Port of Nogales, Ariz., on Jan. 31, 2019. (U.S. Customs and Border Protection/Reuters)

  And on Capitol Hill where there’s bold, blustery, “bi-partisan” talk about taking on the Chinese regime, when it comes to fentanyl and China one hears little.

  Excuses

  Even the Trump administration—the firmest yet in standing up to China—didn’t make so much of the fentanyl issue, though Mr. Trump raised it directly with Xi, and others did try.

  One official suggested calling the “fentanyl scourge” the “Third Opium War.”  The response from inside the Beltway was immediate and visceral: “You can’t say that” (when it comes to China there’s all sort of things “you can’t say”).

  In this case, the response was particularly curious as, in some quarters (including in China), there is a tendency to excuse Chinese non-cooperation as payback for the Opium Wars of the 19th century.

  Payback? The Opium Wars were 180 years ago. By that logic, slave labor in Xinjiang is “payback” for the pre-Civil War plantations. How does creating new despair and death rectify old despair and death?

  American elites also have plenty of other “insider” excuses for why the Chinese regime (or, better said, won’t) stop the illicit drug flow.

  Three of the most common:

  1) The Chinese regime is in a legal bind as fentanyl producers keep jiggering the formula to avoid the “illegal list” and therefore the producers are always one step ahead of a government that can’t revise laws fast enough, try as it might.

  A nice excuse, but in China the law is what Xi and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) say it is, as even billionaire Jack Ma and any number of other powerful and well-connected Chinese tycoons and officials have discovered the hard way. If Beijing wants to shut down fentanyl producers the law is no obstacle.

  2) Chinese local authorities, supposedly outside of Beijing’s reach, won’t stop fentanyl production since they want tax revenues and employment—and are also thoroughly corrupt.

  True enough. But local officials are also frightened of being caught crossing Beijing—everyone knows what happed to Ma.

  3) Chinese authorities can’t locate the illegal drug producers. China is a big place, you know.

  The CCP is creating a surveillance state that even George Orwell couldn’t have imagined. Draw a mustache on a poster of Xi and see how long it takes to be arrested and imprisoned. Post on social media that Xi resembles Winnie the Pooh and you’ll have Ministry of State Security agents at your front door in minutes.

  The CCP police can do whatever they want. “Disappear” people, arrest starlets, kidnap billionaires and booksellers—take foreigners hostage and lock them up? No problem. The only restraints come from Zhongnanhai—the very top of the CCP.

  The fact the Chinese regime doesn’t ban fentanyl in its entirety—much less go after producers the way it goes after Uighurs, Christians and Falun Gong, or Hong Kongers—suggests the CCP is glad America is awash in fentanyl.

  And when Trump told Xi to knock off the fentanyl flow back in 2018, Xi reportedly replied: “We don’t have a drug problem in China.” That means Xi can control the drugs and he’s channeling the chemical warfare agents—in true “unrestricted warfare fashion”—towards his #1 rival and greatest enemy. Most things involving the CCP just aren’t that hard to figure out.

  The Effects of China’s Chemical Warfare

  The carnage can’t be overstated. Fentanyl is ravaging all parts of American society. And about half of the deaths attributed to fentanyl are young people of military age.

  As one former U.S. government official noted, this is the equivalent of removing five or six divisions of Army or Marines off the rolls every year. And don’t forget the “battlefield casualties” who survive but can no longer function as productive members of society, the burden and expense of caring for them, and the devastated families left broke and broken.

  One hears elites who should know better say the victims are just “druggies” and wouldn’t have joined the military anyway. That’s malicious and wrong. Young people have been misbehaving for centuries, and that includes many who join the U.S. military. But a six-pack or a joint is one thing; a difficult to identify drug that is often mislabeled and unpredictably kills or permanently disables in minute quantities, is quite another.

  From China’s perspective, what’s not to like? You’re weakening your avowed enemy, which you plan to dominate by mid-century. And, even better, the CCP makes a lot of money from the drug trade—and in convertible currency. Buy fentanyl and you pay in dollars.

  Accomplices

  While China is ultimately to blame, it is America’s own ruling class that refuses to do anything about it for fear of “offending” China. Or, more accurately, for fear of not being able to feed their own addiction—to Chinese money. Money that, in some small part, may have come from selling fentanyl to Americans in the first place.

  Maybe overlooking 93,000 dead countrymen and exponentially more left in the wreckage in exchange for Chinese cash is easier when you think it’s just deplorables and Neanderthals in fly-over country who are dying.

  It can’t be helped if these people were too stupid and lazy to “learn to code” or to get a Wharton MBA when their jobs, livelihoods, and communities were shipped overseas from the 1990s onwards—mostly to China—by those same political and business elites.

  Countering ‘the Most Baneful Foes’

  Watching America’s elites do nothing – or worse even calling for unrestricted engagement with the Chinese regime – one concludes that the Chinese have indeed gotten their money’s worth from America’s ruling class.

  Just listen to the head of the U.S.–China Business Council, or the CEO of Boeing, or Nike, or Apple if you don’t believe me.

  

  ‘Chemical warfare’ as suspected 44 lbs of Fentanyl seized by law enforcement officials in Dayton, Ohio during the week of Oct. 21, 2019. (Montgomery County Ohio Sheriff’s Office)

  Here’s an idea: require prospective graduates from elite MBA and International Relations programs, as well as Congressional staffers—and maybe even members of Congress themselves—to spend a couple of weeks in the so-called “Rust Belt” that’s been hit both by fentanyl and the carnage caused by the pedigreed classes when industries and jobs were shipped off to China.

  Try: Youngstown, Ohio; Uniontown, Pennsylvania; Buffalo, New York; or East Cleveland, if you need some idea. Though the list could be much, much longer. Put them up in a local motel and require them to be outside on the streets from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. “soaking in the atmosphere.”

  And maybe, for a break, accompany the EMTs out on drug overdose calls. Or stop off at the local high schools and sit in with the guidance counselors—just to get a sense of things and the bright futures too many of these kids face.

  Is this likely? No.

  One gets the impression America’s Best and Brightest just don’t care. They have become willing accomplices to the “baneful foes.”

  This is particularly infuriating because we can fight back. China is not invulnerable. They’ve hit us where it hurts—in our families and communities. We need to hit them where it hurts—in their elites.

  Message to President Joe Biden:

  You have sworn to protect American citizens, not to ensure Wall Street and U.S. industry can take advantage of Xi’s umpteenth promise to “open up.”

  So do one or, ideally more, of the following:

  First, suspend all Chinese financial institutions from the U.S. dollar network. Start with the People’s Bank of China.

  Second, immediately de-list every Chinese company from the New York Stock Exchange and other exchanges. They should not have been listed in the first place.

  Third, revoke the Green Cards and visas—and place liens on the properties and bank accounts—of the top 500 CCP members’ relatives in the United States.

  China can stop pushing drugs into America. It just needs a reason to do so. And we need to give them one. And, at the same time, we need to break our most “insidious” addiction, the one of our elites to Chinese money.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 22:20

• Tesla Megapack Battery Fire In Australia Finally Extinguished After Four Days Of Burning 
  Tesla Megapack Battery Fire In Australia Finally Extinguished After Four Days Of Burning 

  Four days ago, we reported a shipping container-sized Tesla Megapack battery unit at the world’s largest energy storage project, operated by France’s Neoen SA, in Australia’s Victoria, dubbed “Victorian Big Battery,” caught fire during a test-run. 

  Victoria Country Fire Authority (CFA) published a statement Monday that said the 13-ton battery was finally extinguished after four days, according to Bloomberg. 

  “There was one battery pack on fire to start with, but it did spread to a second pack that was very close to it,” Chief CFA Fire Officer Ian Beswicke said in a statement. CFA has yet to determine the origins of what caused the Tesla battery to combust spontaneously. 

  On Friday, when the fire was first reported, CFA officials were so concerned about toxic fumes spewing from the battery unit that they issued air quality warnings for surrounding suburbs and urged people to move indoors. 

  

  The problem with lithium-ion batteries is that besides emitting toxic fumes during a blaze, the sheer amount of water to extinguish the fire is not ESG-friendly. 

  For a regular Tesla car battery weighing around 1,200 pounds, it takes about 20 tons of water to put out the blaze. Some Tesla vehicle fires have taken upwards of 75 tons of water. 

  Now picture a 13-ton, or approximately 26,000-pound battery catching fire and the amount of water needed to extinguish it. CFA didn’t release the number of tons of water it took to extinguish the blaze, but statements show it took four days to put out flames. 

  As for the considerable amounts of gas and smoke emitted from the lithium-ion battery blaze, there has yet to be any quantifiable data released by CFA detailing the environmental impact. 

  The whole ESG push for “green technology” on the grid sounds wonderful, but if a mishap occurs, firefighters do not have the technology to quickly and efficiently put out a lithium-ion battery blaze. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 22:00

• Incompetence + Arrogance = Woke
  Incompetence + Arrogance = Woke

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via Summit News,

  Politically correct ideology is masking and contributing to the widespread failure of our institutions…

  

  We know the nature of mass hysterias in history, and how they can overwhelm and paralyze what seem to be stable societies.  

  We know the roots and origins of the cult of wokeness.  

  And we know, too, how such insanity—from the Salem witch trials to Jacobinism to McCarthyism—can spread, despite alienating most of the population, through fear and the threat of personal ruin or worse. These are the dark sides of the tulip, hula-hoop, and pet-rock fads, the mass obsessions so suited to past affluent Western societies.  

  But does wokeism serve another purpose as well? Specifically, does it either hide preexisting incompetence or fuel it?  

  In the last 18 months, we have seen most of our major institutions go woke and spend considerable amounts of time, capital, and labor on what might be called “commissarism.” Yet in their zeal to rectify society in general and sermonize, virtue signal, pontificate, and perform to the public, many institutions are increasingly failing at what they were established to do. 

  Of course, public servants have long suffered the “Bloomberg effect”—focusing on misdemeanors to virtue signal competence as penance for failing to solve the existential crises. If you cannot clear New York City of snow in a timely manner, then lecture the trapped on everything from global warming to the dangers of super-sized soft drinks. Yet wokeism is a bit different since it now pervades our societies as a pandemic of its own.

  Take Delta Airline CEO Ed Bastian. He earns $17 million in annual compensation, and lectures the state of Georgia and the nation at large on our supposedly racist voting laws. The issue at hand is mostly a requirement to show a valid ID to vote—in the manner one must present identification to enter the boarding area of Bastian’s planes. Surely if one should vote without an ID, why not then be allowed to board a Delta flight?

  I also suggest the public try to call Delta’s consumer helplines to fix the airline’s post-quarantine screw-ups with credits, refunds, rebooking, and recalibrating charges. Just try it—but expect several hours of wait time on the phone. We know now Delta is woke, but what we don’t know is whether one’s past purchase of a ticket will ensure a spot on a Delta flight, or whether prior money or mileage credited will ever be returned or applied to future travel.  

  A cynical observer might suggest that if Ed Bastian cannot ensure adequate consumer service, it won’t matter since he weighs in on voting laws. (Or is it worse than that? Because he pontificates on voting laws and other assorted woke issues, he thinks he can simply worry less about his own consumer services?) 

  American Airlines CEO Doug Parker is woke, too. He has denounced a new Texas voting law likewise requiring tougher ID usage—although he later  admitted that he had never read the new statute before virtue signaling its illiberality.  

  I suggest Parker might first ensure that his airline has not become a Third-World carrier before he seeks to enlighten Americans on their supposed backwardness. I just took a flight on one of Parker’s American Airlines flights from central California to Dallas, Texas. But right before boarding the full flight, passengers were apprised that American did not have enough gas in the plane to make it to Dallas—and couldn’t find any in Fresno. So it was “stopping off” on the way in San Francisco to “fill up”—180 miles away and in the exact opposite direction of its eventual destination. I’ve only twice been on a plane without enough fuel to reach its destination and in need of a detour to find gas somewhere— once 15 years ago in Mexico and the other in 1974 in Egypt.  

  We’ve seen an epidemic of well-compensated professional (and Olympic) athletes lecture the country on its various sins of racism, sexism, and the usual affiliated -isms and -ologies. Like the now passé Colin Kaepernick, they devote enormous time to what in normal times would be called extraneous efforts or even distractions from their business at hand. 

  Is there a connection between their wokeness and the general lack of interest in the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL, and the Tokyo Olympics? Is the public sense not just that they do not wish to be talked down to by such privileged and spoiled 20- and 30-somethings, but also that the level of play of professional and amateur sports seems on the decline as well? Or is it that these woke, young athletes can handle sports or social hectoring, but not both—and it shows in their performances and in the lack of mass appeal?

  Hollywood is the worst offender. Almost daily a mega-star joins the outrage twitter chorus to remind us of her exemplary virtue or his singular outrage over “social injustice.” They belong to this strange collection of celebrity-obsessed multi-millionaires whose homes, lifestyles, modes of transportation, and fashion are Versailles-like—yet whose daily lives never quite match their sanctimonious barking.  

  The real travesty is that Hollywood simply makes poor movies, or rather mostly remakes them ad nauseam, ensuring only that they are “diverse” and proportionally—or now reparationally—representative of “the other.” Two genres tend to dominate the current movies: computer-enhanced comic-book films (sometimes apparently white-washed by progressive executives so as not to offend the racist 1.5 billion-viewer Chinese market), and “the hero versus the Man” movies.  

  The latter usually pits an attractive and courageous young investigator, lawyer, journalist, whistleblower, or public servant against a malicious conspiratorial corporation whose racism, environmental desecration, sexism, and thievery must be exposed in gallant, lone-ranger fashion. Not only are these Maoist scripts boring and repetitive but they sprout from a self-indulgent, hyper-corporate Los Angeles capitalist culture that gave us the Hollywood-beloved, and woke-before-his-time Harvey Weinstein. 

  Universities are the old-new woke bastion. We will probably never know the machinations used by our elite colleges and universities to warp race in favor of some, and against others, among this year’s first incoming class of the post-2020 riot era. 

  Mostly wealthy, white bicoastal administrators and middle managers across all sectors send out communiques, on spec, attesting to their own superior virtue with vocabulary so trite and predictable that a computer programmer could institutionalize and improve on the boilerplate in a few hours. Their bogeyman target is the noxious white male heterosexual—of course, exempting the memo writers themselves, due to their superior morality.  

  The woke have unleashed a veritable jihad to root out and banish those infected with “whiteness” among us. But aside from their main mission of promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion, can we say that woke universities—on the side—are turning out talented and educated graduates who will ensure American prosperity, freedom, preeminence, and the sort of lifestyle the young now assume as their birthright? To ask the question is to know the answer. What else could happen when there are more diversity, equity, and inclusion facilitators on elite campuses than there are history professors? 

  Is the general knowledge of the college student superior to his counterpart of five, 10, or 20 years ago?  Did the great experiment with various “studies” courses (black studies, peace studies, environmental studies, equity studies, Asian studies, La Raza studies, etc.) result in better writers, thinkers, speakers, analysts, mathematicians, and scientists than what was produced by the old Shakespeare English course, or Western Civ highlights from Homer to Locke, or advanced calculus? Is the campus more tolerant than it was in 1980, more open to free speech, more determined to protect the constitutional rights of its students? 

  The military is an especially good example of a major American institution whose woke credentials are now ostentatious, but whose performance in a cost-to-benefit analysis seems increasingly anemic. 

  We know that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, is popular for the moment with the Left in Congress. As a result, like many of his predecessors, if he wishes, Milley can gravitate to lucrative defense contractor boards upon retirement—without a finger-pointing Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) castigating him as a get-rich, revolving-door apparatchik.  

  Milley and others, such as Admiral Michael Gilday, have given spirited, if incoherent, defenses of why they want their enlistees to read Ibram X. Kendi’s texts on “antiracism”—or at least why they want the Washington elite to know they recommend them to their soldiers and sailors. We know that multimillionaire ex-Raytheon board member, consultant, and now defense secretary, General Lloyd Austin is auditing the ranks to weed out suspicious white male insurrectionaries, an investigation that so far seems to lack any actual data to justify said witch hunt. The chain of command, which can enact social change by fiat, is in this case beloved by the Left. And the officer corps has made the necessary adjustments to ensure their own rapid promotions. 

  Thus, there is little protest about the military budget being slashed by the beloved Joe Biden, after it was markedly raised by the hated Donald Trump, who among his many other sins jawboned the NATO allies finally to pony much of their promised military contributions to the alliance. 

  Milley’s earlier apologies for doing a photo-op with President Trump while the rascal supposedly cleared the environs with tear gas were mostly empty virtue signaling, given the inspector general of the Interior Department found no such presidential edict or any use of such an agent.  

  Indeed, a dozen or so of our best and brightest retired four-stars had blasted their former commander-in-chief as fit for removal the “sooner, the better,” a veritable monster who employed Nazi-like tactics, emulated Mussolini, and took his immigration policy in part from Auschwitz.

  But was such energy, rhetorical imagination, and refined conscience evident in our stellar victories in Afghanistan and Iraq? Was the Libyan intervention a model of military planning, on both the strategic and tactical levels? Have our innovative weaponry, training, and displays of strength deterred the Chinese military? Have our latest naval and aviation acquisitions proven to be models of brilliant cost-effective investments? In our woke age, do our soldiers die on the battlefield in proportion to their sex and race, in conformity with the new proportional representation gospel and in all other areas of military endeavors?

  We could ask the same of the FBI and CIA, given the loud, recent wokeist careers of John Brennan, James Clapper, Kevin Clinesmith, James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Lisa Page, and Peter Strzok. From such sanctimony we might assume the FBI had successfully ferreted out and preempted the Boston Marathon bombers, or the San Bernardino terrorists; or that we knew from the CIA the threats posed by the Phoenix-like reappearance of the “J.V.” ISIS killers in Iraq, the Spratly Island aggrandizement by China, the true nature of the Wuhan lab leak, the location of existing stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq or Syria, and the current status of the Iranian nuclear program. 

  The point is not to berate our institutions, but to warn them.  Either their abilities to carry out their assigned tasks are becoming diminished by Nineteen Eighty-Four-like wokism, or they are using ideological camouflage simply to mask their unaccountability—and their increasing incompetence.  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 21:40

• Kim Jong Un Makes Public Appearance With Strange "Green Spot" & Bandage On His Head
  Kim Jong Un Makes Public Appearance With Strange “Green Spot” & Bandage On His Head

  South Korean intelligence as well as the media have of late been closely monitoring Kim Jong Un’s changing appearance, especially given his clear rapid weight loss of the past months, setting off higher than usual amounts of speculation over possible ill health. 

  This speculation has been renewed over these past days and has taken a bizarre turn, as commentary on the reclusive dictator’s appearance is now focusing on a strange “dark green spot” on the back of Kim’s head, as NK News has highlighted.

  

  Judging by a series of images and footage published in North Korean state media of a military event held during the last week of July, the strange mark seems the result of a prior wound – or possible medical intervention like surgery – given the spot was covered with a bandage at one point.

  NK News’ commentary includes the following description:

  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appeared with a dark spot on the back of his head during public activities last week — the latest health-related issue Kim has faced in recent years. 

  The cause or nature of the large, dark green spot or bruise on the rear right side of his head, which was covered with a bandage in some footage, is still unknown and is difficult to diagnose using only images. 

  

  The report notes that at times state media attempted to avoid broadcasting images of the back of his head, while in other settings the discolored mark appears.

  There’s so far been no indication or even acknowledgement out of Pyongyang of what it could be, even after this summer there was an unusual acknowledgement of the weight loss during street interviews with concerned citizens.

  

  NK News put together the above montage of the latest appearances at a military event.

  NEW: Kim Jong Un appeared with a dark spot on the back of his head during public appearances last week:

  -Visible from July 24-27, absent on June 29
  -Covered with a bandage in some footage
  -Cause or nature of the large, dark spot or bruise is unknownhttps://t.co/WvwRGFME7J pic.twitter.com/oLwQCwTsJX

  — NK NEWS (@nknewsorg) August 2, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The bandage as well as mark had appeared after he reportedly spent two weeks away from public duties:

  Meanwhile, it is likely that Kim was spending time at his Wonsan mansion during his two-week break from public activities in mid-July, just before showing up with the new mark and bandage on his head.

  His recently upgraded “floating amusement park” boat appeared at the DPRK leader’s Wonsan private beach at the start of his break and was placed back in storage on the same day Kim reappeared in Pyongyang, according to Planet Labs satellite imagery.

  At a politburo meeting held on 29 June, Kim’s last big appearance prior to the late July meetings, there appeared to be no mark or injury to the back of his head, or at least nothing visible, suggesting whatever it is developed within the last month.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 21:20

• How To Spot The Start Of The Tapering Cycle
  How To Spot The Start Of The Tapering Cycle

  By Vincent Cignarella, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator

  Job growth at pre-pandemic levels is the key to the start of tapering, according to Fed Chair Powell. The good news for fixed income traders worried about higher rates and bond bulls is we’re not there yet.

  A good gauge for when we do get there, take a look at the spread between the labor participation rate and job openings (JOLTS). It’s nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Looking back at where labor and job openings were when the Fed announced tapering in December 2013 serves as a decent indication of what this relationship needs to look like before tapering is a more convincing option for the central bank.

  

  The question Fed Chair Powell is asked time and time again and the one he cannot seem to answer is “what does transitory mean and when will inflation point to the beginning of tapering?” The answer is likely not about inflation at all, but jobs. Remember, inflation is transitory for the Fed, or is it?

  Take a look at another metric of jobs returning to pre-pandemic levels: payroll gains and jobless claims. It seems we’re already there and the Fed is indeed behind the curve. It’s likely to fall even further behind once inflation begins to percolate.

  

  That means inflation and inflationary expectations are like a spring wound tight. It is only when you reach the tipping point that it unravels. For the Fed, it appears that time is when labor participation increases sufficiently to fill current job openings.

  We may be closer than we think to that moment. School re-openings and the end of extended jobs benefits is right around the corner. That should produce an increase in the labor participation rate and result in fewer job openings. That’s when the first aforementioned metric may come into play.

  For equity investors, it’s not a time to panic. The 2013 taper tantrum didn’t produce an extended selloff but it was a different story for bond traders. As the participation/job opening gap closes, the canary in the coal mine may stop singing. That’ll likely be a sign that tapering is at hand and signal the beginning of a substantial bond correction.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 21:00

• "An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
  “An Environmental Disaster”: An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

  If there’s one thing about the growing demand for EVs that we have tried to point out over the last month, it’s the fact that the rhetoric about the “green” vehicles being perfect for the environment with little consequence isn’t exactly 100% accurate.

  Just over the last two months, we’ve written not only about how much driving needs to be done in EVs to make them better for the environment than internal combustion engine vehicles, but we’ve also noted that EV carbon footprints aren’t necessarily as better than ICE vehicles as many people think.

  Now, more questions are starting to be raised about the potential unintended consequences of the EV revolution. Notably, how can the metals used for EV batteries be recycled and reused as part of a circular economy before a materials crunch – or environmental impact from mining – negates the “green” label affixed to EV vehicles. That’s the question FT delved into this week in a new report. 

  And who better to make it clear that recycling is an issue than former Tesla executive JB Straubel. He started a company called Redwood Materials in 2017 that is focused on trying to break down used batteries and reconstitute them into a fresh supply of metals for new ones.

  

  Despite EVs bring zero emission while being driven, the “mining, manufacturing and disposal process for batteries could become an environmental disaster for the industry,” FT wrote.

  Straubel said to FT: “It’s not sustainable at all today, nor is there really an imminent plan — any disruption happening — to make it sustainable. That always grated on me a little bit at Tesla and it became more apparent as we ramped everything up.”

  His company takes batteries from old smartphones, power tools and scooters, and turns them back into metals like nickel, cobalt and lithium so they can re-enter the supply chain. His goal is to stop mining from places like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Australia and Chile, and start mining household waste. Straubel says there’s about 1 billion used batteries sitting around in households. 

  Gene Berdichevsky, chief executive of battery materials start-up Sila Nano, noted that there’s a material amount of cobalt in smartphones compared to EV batteries: “So for every 300 smartphones you collect, you have enough cobalt for an EV battery.”

  Cobalt mining is particularly resource intensive. “Cobalt can travel more than 20,000 miles from the mine to the automaker before a buyer places a ‘zero emission’ sticker on the bumper,” FT points out. 

  Straubel says that EV emissions can be halved even further from where they are if batteries and metals can be continually recycled.

  

  Redwood has raised more than $700 million from investors to hire 500 people and expand its operations. This year it’ll process 20,000 tons of scrap and has already recovered enough material to build 45,000 EV battery packs. 

  Redwood already has partnerships with companies like Panasonic and Amazon. And companies like Apple are getting on board with the circular economy idea, which CEO Tim Cook aspiring to “not to have to remove anything from the earth to make the new iPhones”. 

  A circular economy with EV batteries would give the world a significant push forward to meeting net zero emissions goals. Kunal Sinha, head of copper and electronics recycling at miner Glencore, said: “For the world to hit net zero — by 2050 you can’t do it with just resource efficiency, switching to EVs and clean energy, there’s still a gap. That gap can be closed by driving the circular economy, changing how we consume things, how we reuse things, and how we recycle.”

  As EV adoption grows, demand for nickel, cobalt and lithium will continue to rise. Paul Anderson, a professor at the University of Birmingham, said: “There is going to be a mass scramble for these materials. Everyone is panicking about how to get their technology on to the market and there is not enough thought [given] to recycling.”

  A “crunch” for the materials will likely happen as a result of demand surpassing supply, which will take place in 2 to 3 years, according to Monica Varman, a clean tech investor at G2 Venture Partners. 

  Berdichevsky concluded: “In the future we’ll replace the car, but not the battery; of that I’m very confident. We haven’t even scratched the surface of the battery age, in terms of what we can do with longevity and recycling.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 20:40

• Beijing Quietly Issued 'Buy Chinese' Procurement Guidelines For Hospitals & State Companies 
  Beijing Quietly Issued ‘Buy Chinese’ Procurement Guidelines For Hospitals & State Companies 

  China may be preparing to unleash its own “buy Chinese” policy in contradiction to prior agreements when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. The government is believed to have been signaling the erection of new significant trade barriers with the United States based on ‘unofficial’ procurement guidelines yet to be made public, as Reuters reports Monday:

  China’s government quietly issued new procurement guidelines in May that require up to 100% local content on hundreds of items including X-ray machines and magnetic resonance imaging equipment, erecting fresh barriers for foreign suppliers, three U.S.-based sources told Reuters.

  

  Though not yet acknowledged publicly by Beijing, the sources say the document issued by the Chinese Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) under the title “Auditing guidelines for government procurement of imported products,” has been circulated to Chinese hospitals and state companies laying out “local content” requirements of 25% to up 100% for over 300 items ranging from testing machinery to radar equipment to geological equipment, according to the report.

  There’s been other signs that the policy is being implemented, raising the stakes further for Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping’s upcoming meeting in October on the sidelines of the G20 in Rome. Reuters continues: 

  Doug Barry, spokesman for the U.S. China Business Council, said his group has heard about the document, but has not seen a copy. The group’s members who operate in China are reporting new problems in competing for and winning bids there, including areas such as testing equipment and transportation, he said.

  And here’s more details from the ‘secretive’ document seen by Reuters’ sources: 

  The new guidelines affect a wide range of goods, including medical devices, which Beijing agreed to buy more of under the terms of the Phase 1 trade deal. For example, magnetic resonance imaging equipment – a key export for U.S. companies in the past – would face a 100% local content requirements under the new guidelines, the former official said.

  U.S. trade experts said China’s local content rules differed from planned increases in U.S. “Buy American” thresholds because they were not publicly released, and affect far greater volumes of medical equipment and other goods since China’s state-owned enterprises include hospitals and other entities.

  This could have devastating impact on US medical device exports from major brands like Johnson & Johnson, GE and Abbott – all who sell billions of dollars in equipment to China. 

  Reuters notes further that “China imported some $124 billion in goods from the United States in 2020, much of which was purchased by vast state-owned and government-associated companies that control the education, health, transportation, agriculture and energy sectors.”

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  And more: “With three-fourths of the deal now complete, China is on pace to buy just over 60% of the goods needed to reach its target, according to Chad Bown, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 20:20

• IMF Creates Record $650 Billion Slush Fund For Pandemic Relief
  IMF Creates Record $650 Billion Slush Fund For Pandemic Relief

  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a record $650 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs) to ‘help nations dealing with mounting debt and the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic,’ according to Bloomberg, which notes that it’s the largest resource injection in the organization’s history.

  

  The creation of the reserve assets — known as special drawing rights — is the first since the $250 billion issued just after global financial crisis in 2009, with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva billing it as “a shot in the arm for the world” that will help boost global economic stability. –Bloomberg

  “The SDR allocation will benefit all members, address the long-term global need for reserves, build confidence, and foster the resilience and stability of the global economy,” said Georgieva, framing it as a “shot in the arm for the world” which will contribute towards global economic stability.

  “It will particularly help our most vulnerable countries struggling to cope with the impact of the covid-19 crisis,” she added.

  

  According to the report, the plan has been in the works for more than a year – as early progress was beset with delays after the Trump administration (the IMF’s largest shareholder) blocked it early last year after then-Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted that the funds wouldn’t actually end up with the nations that need it most.

  This, of course, radically changed under Mnuchin’s successor, Janet Yellen – as the fund revisited options for rich nations to redistribute wealth to ‘vulnerable and low-income countries.’ At present, reserves are allocated to all 190 members of the IMF in proportion to their quota, while around 70% will go to the G20 largest economies. Just 3% will go to low-income nations.

  

  As Bloomberg explains, that’s about to change.

  Overall, 58% of the new SDRs go to advanced economies, with 42% for emerging and developing economies. So of the $650 billion, about $21 billion go to low-income countries and $212 billion to other emerging market and developing countries, without counting China, according to U.S. Treasury Department calculations.

  The Group of Seven advanced economies in June endorsed a plan to reallocate $100 billion of new SDRs to poorer countries, but the G-20 in July only specified support for a general allocation of $650 billion in SDRs, without detailing how much would re-lent. –Bloomberg

  The reallocation will help impoverished countries in Africa, which will receive roughly $33 billion of the new SDRs – made possible by a commitment from France to reallocate their SDRs. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has insisted in the past that a full quarter, around $162 billion, should be allocated to African nations – and called on rich countries to donate, not lend, their SDR allotments.

   

   

   

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 20:00

• Trump Amends Big Tech Lawsuit As 65,000 Americans Submit Censorship Stories
  Trump Amends Big Tech Lawsuit As 65,000 Americans Submit Censorship Stories

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

  Former President Donald Trump’s legal team has amended his class action lawsuit against Big Tech to incorporate additional class representatives and more censorship stories provided by everyday Americans.

  

  According to the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), Trump’s July 7 lawsuit against Facebook, Twitter, and Google is adding ”additional censorship experiences” from some of the nearly 65,000 people who submitted them to the institute.

  ”Late last night, Amended Complaints were filed in the Big Tech lawsuits against Facebook, Inc., Mark Zuckerberg, Twitter, Inc., Jack Dorsey, Google LLC, and Sundar Pichai,” AFPI said in a July 28 statement.

  “Since the initial filing on July 7, 2021, nearly 65,000 American people have submitted their stories of censorship through America First Policy Institute’s (AFPI) Constitutional Litigation Partnership (CLP) at TakeOnBigTech.com,” AFPI added.

  Trump said at a July 7 press conference outlining his plans for the legal action that he expected thousands of people would join his lawsuit. Several people invited to speak at the press conference shared their experiences of what they said amounted to censorship by social media platforms.

  “Joining us this morning are just a few of the many Americans who have been illegally banned or silenced under the corrupt regime of censorship,” Trump said at the time.

  “These brave patriots are included in the lawsuit and thousands more are joining as we speak. Thousands more. They’re all wanting to join. This will be, I think will go down as the biggest class action ever filed,” Trump predicted.

  AFPI said in its statement that Trump’s amended complaint includes “additional censorship experiences and incorporates additional class representatives, including Dr. Naomi Wolf and Wayne Allyn Root—individuals on opposite ends of the political spectrum who highlight the bipartisan need to protect the thoughts and voices of all Americans, regardless of political affiliation.”

  Wolf, a longtime liberal and former adviser to the political campaigns of both Bill Clinton and Al Gore, told EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders” in a recent interview that the growing number of people banned from Big Tech platforms is leading to a wave of self-censorship.

  Wolf, who was banned by Twitter in June for allegedly sharing so-called misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines, said the “chilling effect” her ban has had on other journalists is evident because some have reached out to her directly.

  “I’ve gotten so many emails from other reporters saying, ‘I really admire you, I’m so sorry you were de-platformed.’ And when I would say ‘well, can you say that publicly?’ They universally said ‘I would, but I’m really afraid of being de-platformed.’ And I’ve seen the self censorship that has gone on in the wake of some high-profile de-platforming of journalists,” she said.

  

  Naomi Wolf attends the “Fed Up” premiere at the Museum of Modern Art in New York City on May 6, 2014. (Rommel Demano/Getty Images)

  Trump said at the July 7 press conference that his suit centers on protecting the First Amendment right to free speech.

  “We’re asking the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida to order an immediate halt to social media companies’ illegal, shameful censorship of the American people, and that’s exactly what they are doing,” the former president said.

  “We’re demanding an end to the shadow banning, a stop to the silencing, and a stop to the blacklisting, banishing, and canceling that you know so well. Our case will prove this censorship is unlawful, it’s unconstitutional, and it’s completely un-American,” added Trump who himself was banned from major social media platform following the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

  Twitter, Facebook, and Google said in January that they banned Trump over his claims that the Nov. 3 election was stolen and alleged that he contributed to the Jan. 6 violence. Twitter executives have said Trump’s ban will be permanent, Facebook imposed a two-year ban on the former president’s account, and Google-owned YouTube has said it would curtail his suspension until it determines that “the risk of violence has decreased.”

  Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey were named in the lawsuits—as well as the companies themselves. Trump said the lawsuits will seek a court award of punitive damages over the suspension.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 19:40

• Corporate Margins Set To Tumble As Companies Freak Out About Surge In "Bad Inflation"
  Corporate Margins Set To Tumble As Companies Freak Out About Surge In “Bad Inflation”

  First the good news: according to Bank of America’s earnings tracker, Q2 earnings season is already one of the strongest in history (as one would expect following trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus and comping off the catastrophic Q2 of 2020 when covid shut down the economy), and following the busiest earnings week of 2Q, 296 S&P 500 companies (76% of index earnings) have reported. 2Q EPS is now tracking a 13% beat or $51.12, topping BofA’s estimate of $50 or an 11% beat; and far above the historical average since the start of earnings season.

  

  To avoid the skewed 2020 data and doing a two-year lookback, 2Q is now expected to be +83% YoY or +24% vs. 2Q19, vs. last quarter’s 25% 2-yr growth rate. Financials, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary led the EPS beat, while revenues are also coming in red hot and tracking a 3% beat, led by Energy.

  

  More importantly, the proportion of beats also remained strong: 83%/85%/74% of companies beat on EPS/sales/both, representing the best proportion of beats in history (since 2011).

  

  Looking at the top line, analysts now expect 2Q sales to rise 21% YoY, vs. 14% YoY last quarter. Energy is expected to lead (+102%), while Financials are forecast to be the biggest drag (-4%). Here, BofA estimates that FX tailwinds thanks to a weaker dollar added about 3% to YoY sales growth (Exhibit 4), representing the biggest benefit since 2011. Excluding FX/oil impacts, constant-currency sales growth for the S&P 500 ex. Fins. & Energy is expected to be +15% YoY (Exhibit 5), accelerating from the 13% growth last quarter.

  

  What is more surprising is that in a quarter when many predicted margins would be hit by surging input costs, not only was that not the case but companies once again posted skyhigh margins, with 2Q net margins (ex-Financials) jumping to a new high at 13.0%, topping last quarter’s 12.5%. This was consistent with BofA’s Corporate Misery Indicator, which rose to a record high (“least miserable”) in 2Q, indicating it was among the most favorable macro environment for corporate margins in history since 1978!

  

  How is this possible in a time when numerous commodity prices have hit never before seen levels? Simple: companies have experienced virtually no pushback to rising prices as most Americans can easily absorb the rampant inflation. Indeed, as IHS Markit Chief Economist Chris Williamson commented in today this is “perhaps the strongest sellers’ market that we’ve seen since the survey began in 2007, with suppliers hiking prices for inputs into factories at the steepest rate yet recorded and manufacturers able to raise their selling prices to an unprecedented extent, as both suppliers and producers often encounter little price resistance from customers.” It remains to be seen just how long such a “seller’s market” will be the norm, although we expect it to reverse quite painfully once government handouts end.

  In any case, that was the good news: now the bad and that was summarized best by BofA’s Savita Subramanian who wrote that “we are starting to see the good inflation environment turning into a bad inflation environment with many companies citing accelerating cost inflation, particularly around wages.”

  Indeed, as shown in the chart above, consensus margin expectations for 2H reflect this risk, with margins forecast to moderate to 12.6 % in 3Q and 12.5% in 4Q. But if cost pressure continues to accelerate, we could see more downside risk in 2H margins.

  And nobody captures this risk better than companies themselves: according to word counts of corporate earnings transcripts by BofA’s Predictive Analytics team, mentions of “inflation” on 2Q earnings calls topped 1Q levels and jumped to a record high, based on BofA’s Predictive Analytics team’s analysis. On a YoY basis, inflation mentions rose nearly 1100% YoY, outpacing the 900% increase we saw last quarter.

  

  Notably, labor-related mentions – i.e., discussion of rising wages – rose the most among inflation categories BofA tracks in 2Q, up 155% YoY. This compares to last quarter when labor-related mentions rose the least (+12% YoY), pointing to soaring wage pressure, and is why BofA remains cautious on labor-intensive Consumer Discretionary and Industrials.

  

  Meanwhile, supply-chain related mentions also more than doubled YoY (+106% vs. +17% YoY in 1Q). Both supply chain and labor related mentions rose to record highs in BofA data history since 2004.

  

  And before we dig through the actual earnings transcripts, we leave the most ominous finding for last: using earnings calls transcripts, BofA calculated sentiment for S&P500 companies that have reported this earnings season (it used Loughran McDonald’s financial dictionary to calculate sentiment scores.) Overall, BofA found that corporate sentiment dipped from a record high, indicating peak corporate sentiment amid inflation concerns and rising cases of the Delta variant.

  

  Similarly, companies mentions of business condition (ratio of mentions of “better” or “stronger” vs. “worse” or “weaker”) indicate weaker business conditions vs. the peak level last quarter. Mentions of optimism also declined from the peak levels in the prior two quarters.

  

  To summarize: yes, Q2 earnings were a huge beat and margins were a record high… but it’s all downhill from here as the “bad inflation” (to companies, and very good inflation to workers) is about to roll down the income statement, resulting in sharply lower margins and deteriorating earnings. And insiders know this well, which is why corporate sentiment has already rolled over and is down despite a true earnings bonanza, and is also why corporation optimism has moved sharply lower, a move which will accelerate to the downside as soon as margins are hit by surging wages and as soon companies can no longer pass through sharply higher input prices.

  Finally, courtesy of BofA, here is a snapshot of what some of the most notable companies just said about inflation, bad or otherwise:

  AMZN (Discretionary): “The other thing is wage pressure has become evident. We’ve talked about this a bit. The wage increase that we normally would do in October we pulled forward into May. We’re spending a lot of money on signing and incentives. And while we have very good staffing levels, it’s not without cost. It’s a very competitive labor market out there and certainly the biggest contributor to inflationary pressures that we’re seeing in the business.”

  NWL (Discretionary): “We expect Q3 to be the peak quarter for inflation pressure, which will significantly weigh on the company’s margin performance.”

  ITW (Industrials): “We continue to expect price/cost impact to be EPS-neutral or better for the year. […] We continue to experience raw material cost increases, particularly in categories such as steel, resins and chemicals and now project raw material cost inflation at around 7% for the full year which is almost 5 percentage points higher than what we anticipated as the year began. And just for some perspective, this is roughly 2x what we experienced in the 2018 inflation/tariff cycle.”

  CHD (Staples): “We now expect full year gross margin to be down 75 basis points. This represents an incremental impact from our last guidance due to broad-based inflation on raw materials and transportation costs.”

  IP (Materials): “We do expect further input cost inflation in the third quarter with substantial pressure on OCC and transportation costs.”

  HSY (Consumer Discretionary): “In the second half of the year, we expect increased packaging and freight costs to continue. We also expect labor costs to remain elevated as higher levels of marketplace attrition contribute to more overtime and accelerated hiring to keep pace with demand. While we expect more price realization in the second half versus the first half, we also expect less sales volume benefits… And then in addition, I think labor rates in general and labor availability in general are a pressure point beyond just volume. The market for labor is challenging. And so just like everyone, we want to make sure we are staying ahead of the curve on hiring, making sure our value proposition at our plants is attractive. And packaging inflation similar, packaging inflation we touched on a little bit on the last call. It’s still a pressure point. I think we’re still optimistic we’re going to see that moderate as we go forward, but we haven’t seen it yet. And so, it is a combination of those transitory costs on the back of the higher volume and a few things that are a little bit [stickier] here as we look across the balance of the year.”

  TFX (Health Care): “Any inflation that we saw, we saw it begin last year in transportation. So, that was already in our run rate. And we saw some modest inflation in some of our resins, but it was pretty – it’s very manageable, and we’re going to more than offset it with really positive pricing and building momentum in the quarter with that positive pricing.”

  LKQ (Consumer Discretionary): “Across all of our segments, we are experiencing some level of supply chain shortages and disruptions. These disruptions are creating product scarcity and freight delays that are resulting in meaningful availability pressures in certain product lines. The supply chain challenges are also driving product inflation, which in turn, is generating the most robust pricing environment we’ve seen in years. Across all of our segments, we have been very effective in passing along these costs as witnessed by our margin performance. Alongside supply chain inflationary pressures, like many businesses across the globe, we are facing wage inflation and increased competition for labor.”

  MAS (Industrials): “We continue to see escalating inflation across most of our cost basket, including freight, resins, TiO2 and packaging. Inbound freight container costs nearly tripled during the quarter. We now expect our all-in cost inflation to be in the high single-digit range for the full year for both our Plumbing and Decorative segments, with low double-digit inflation in the second half of the year.
  Inflation in coatings will likely be in the mid-teens later in the fourth quarter. To mitigate this inflation, we have secured price increases across both segments and are taking further pricing action across our business to address these continued cost escalations. We are also working with our suppliers, customers and internal teams to implement further productivity measures to help offset these costs. Despite the increased inflation, we still expect to achieve price/cost neutrality by year-end. While cost inflation has clearly been an issue, material availability has also impacted our business.”

  FBHS (Industrials): “While inflation headwinds were anticipated, they continued to strengthen throughout the quarter. As I mentioned earlier, we are taking incremental actions during the second half of the year to offset increased inflation. […]Through this combination of cost and thoughtful pricing actions, we plan to offset all inflationary headwinds this year and expect to deliver 2021 operating margin improvement.”

  AVY (Materials): “Given the increasing inflationary pressures, we are redoubling our efforts on material re-engineering and again raising prices. We are targeting to close the inflation gap relative to mid last year by the fourth quarter.”

  IEX (Industrials): “We anticipated rising inflation as the global economy recovered, but like many, did not imagine the sharp rate of increase. This narrowed our spread between price capture and material costs, although we remain positive overall. Our teams leveraged the systematic investments we made a few years ago in pricing management and aggressively deployed two, sometimes three pricing adjustments with precision. We are on track to expand our price/cost spread to typical levels as we travel to the back half of the year.”

  ODFL (Industrials): “It’s a tighter labor market than certainly we’re used to. Of course, I’ve been here for a long time and I don’t ever remember the growth percentages in the past that we’ve got today. So, it’s definitely a bigger challenge than it’s ever been.”

  MHK (Consumer Discretionary): “We anticipate material and freight challenges will continue to impact our business in the third quarter. To compensate for material inflation, we have increased prices and we expect further increases will be required as our costs continue to rise”

  MDLZ (Staples): “As we said many times, inflation and commodity costs are higher than we originally anticipated at the start of 2021, but we continue to believe that they are manageable. In terms of pricing and inflation, I would say there is going to be more in the second part of the year. To start with, our pipeline of commodities and FX has been advantageous in the first part of the year, and we expect some commodities and FX impact to be relatively higher in the second part. So there will be some more pressure in Q3 specifically, but we will continue to be very disciplined in terms of costs and pricing.”

  SBUX (Consumer Discretionary): “While we’re thrilled with our margin performance in Q3, we expect it to moderate slightly in Q4 primarily due to the growing impact of inflation coupled with incremental investments critical to our continued growth.”
  “So in Q3 we had outstanding performance, but within that we covered headwinds in the Americas business of about 70 basis points. And we expect headwinds related to rising costs and inflationary pressures to continue into Q4 which is reflected in the guidance that we’ve given.”

  SHW (Materials): “Our gross margins were under considerable pressure in the quarter given the sustained higher raw material costs. However, as we have demonstrated in past inflationary cycles, we are fully committed to offsetting these costs, and we announced additional pricing actions in the quarter, which will be realized as the year goes on.”… “We anticipate year-over-year inflation in the third quarter to be higher than it was in the second quarter with only slight improvement in the fourth quarter as demand remains high.”

  WM (Industrials): “It’s no surprise to anyone who follows economic indicators that most businesses are experiencing inflation in their costs throughout 2021 and our business is no exception, particularly with regard to labor. We expect to overcome these pressures by increasing operating efficiencies and executing on our disciplined pricing programs.”

  RSG (Industrials): “we’re seeing very modest inflation in this year’s economics; kind of do an annual increase and we give our people a fair increase every year. We expect that certainly to tick up next year, but to be more than offset by our ability to price through that. And so we think that inflation net-net will be margin expanding for us.”

  LW (Staples): “As a result, we expect input cost inflation, especially for edible oils packaging and transportation to be a significant headwind for fiscal 2022. Our goal is to offset inflation using combination of levers including pricing. To that end, we just began implementing broad-based price increases in our Foodservice and Retail segments, and don’t expect to see the most of their benefit until our fiscal third quarter.”

  IQV (Health Care): “it’s no secret that given the strength of the industry backdrop, there’s obviously strong competition for talent. […] Now does it cause a certain amount of anxiety in the industry? And yes, it’s true. And has it caused some level of wage inflation? Yes, that is true. There is also a little bit of an uptick in attrition levels as a consequence of all of that. All of that is true… But again, we feel confident. We do not anticipate this to cause any significant – there will be some level of headwind to our margins, but we have so many programs and productivity measures and process improvement measures in place that we are confident we will overwhelm.”

  KMB (Staples): “Obviously, given that amount and given our outlook, we are covering a significant portion of that, but we can’t practically cover all of that this year […] And so, what I would say is, part one, our pricing implementation is largely on track and we expect to fully offset inflation over time. Not all this year, but over time.”

  SWK (Industrials): “We continue to see elevated commodity prices and now expect $260 million of commodity inflation in the second half versus our prior assumption of $210 million. In particular, elevated steel pricing is largely driving the $50 million increase. We are now in the full implementation mode and believe we should be in a position to offset approximately 50% of the 2021 headwind, netting material inflation and better price realization is a neutral effect versus the prior guidance. The goal is to have our actions in place during the third quarter, so the 2022 carryover benefits of price and margin actions fully offset the carryover inflation”

  PNR (Industrials): “Regarding the current inflationary environment, we have implemented further price increases and we expect the price cost gap to further narrow in the second half.”… “Consistent with our guidance, the second quarter did not see price fully offset inflation as we saw higher inflation that we have continued to implement price increases to help offset. The second half should see price costs start to even out. But an unprecedented amount of material and wage inflation coupled with robust demand has contributed to price reading out at a slower pace. Our forecast reflects our expectations that material shortages and inflation are not going away nor will they improve materially.”

  FTV (Industrials): “Even though we are seeing a little bit of cost inflation, we’re still going to be net – significantly net in a good shape relative to material cost reductions for the year. So material cost reductions will still be a profit improver for the year, even though we’ve seen a little bit more inflation than typical, we still are in a very good shape relative to price cost, not only because of price, but also because we’ve done a nice job on the cost reduction side as well.”

  CL (Staples): “We expect raw material costs to remain elevated throughout 2021, but we do expect some sequential lessening of inflation as we get into the fourth quarter.”

  JCI (Industrials): “Although lead times and conversion cycles are stretching, we believe conditions will begin to improve over the next couple of quarters. We are successfully leveraging our pricing capabilities to offset inflation, and we still expect to remain price cost positive for the year.”

  UPS (Industrials): “We know what happens in an inflationary environment, don’t we? Somebody pays for it. It’s usually the consumer, which means, right, that price increases get passed along all the way to the end to the consumer until the consumer says, ouch, I’m not going to buy any more. The consumer continues to buy. So there we are in the cycle, and this is a cycle, right. This is a cycle.”

  PKG (Materials): “These items were partially offset by higher operating costs of $0.57, primarily due to inflation-related increases in the areas of labor infringes, repairs, materials and supplies, recycled fiber cost, as well as other indirect and fixed cost areas Inflation associated with most of the operating costs as well as freight and logistics expenses is expected to continue.”

  GLW (Tech): “Now during the quarter, we continue to face supply chain disruptions and inflationary headwinds. Planning and increased output allowed us to reduce costly airfreight, but the sequential improvement was offset by increases in shipping rates and the cost of certain raw materials such as resin, a key component in our Optical and Life Sciences businesses. […] So right now, we’re clearly facing a lot of supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressure. And what we saw in the first quarter was, of course, a lot of that relative to freight and logistics. We had plans to mitigate that. We actually did those mitigations. But then there were other things that occurred, particularly around increased resin cost. So as we think about the guide, in particular the guide for the third quarter, we thought it was prudent to assume that, that 150 basis points drag that’s coming from those inflationary and supply chain logistics costs would continue.”

  IR (Industrials): “Since the end of Q1 of 2021 of this year, we have seen inflation and we call inflation here direct material and logistics, continue to increase, which is the reason why we acted on additional pricing actions. I’ll say those pricing actions are offsetting the incremental inflation that we’re expecting to see in the second half.”

  HIG (Financials): “As we listen to inflationary expectations, we expect some of those trends will be with us into the third quarter, fourth quarter. But I think that given our trends, our expectations to the year haven’t changed materially and we’re on top of our selections and I think we’re in good shape as we move into Q3.”

  PHM (Consumer Discretionary): “As reflected in the increases in our sales prices and gross margin, we’ve been able to pass on the meaningful cost inflation we have incurred over the course of the year. At this point, we now expect house costs to be up between 9% and 11% for the full year with the peak of certain costs, driven by lumber flowing through in the third and fourth quarters. Even with the ongoing rise in build costs, we still see opportunity for gross margins to move higher over the remaining two quarters of the year.”

  BSX (Health Care): “[We] expect slight improvements in second half gross margin compared to the first half, though still not at full year 2019 levels, as other headwinds remain, in particular, the lingering cost of running plants with COVID-specific measures, as well as some impact from inflation.”

  HAS (Consumer Discretionary): “We talked earlier about ocean freight in some of our prepared remarks and we’re seeing those costs are over four times higher than what we had been experiencing earlier or last year even. So, we expect a lot of those costs to continue. But between cost of sales and that, we do expect our gross margin to be slightly down from a year ago, but we do expect the price increases that we’ve taken to offset our increased costs”

  GE (Industrials): “Looking forward to the second half of 2021 and into 2022, although inflation pressure is likely to increase particularly in Aviation and Renewables, we expect the net inflation impact to be limited.”

  OTIS (Industrials): “This high inflationary environment that we’re seeing should help us on Service pricing because most of our contracts in Europe and Americas have price escalators kind of built-in that are largely tied to labor inflation. And, historically, we’ve always had that lever but given low inflationary environment in the macro market, the prices don’t always stick. And now, with this inflationary environment, we should have a greater ability to stick those prices, so that should help next year.”

  HON (Industrials): “so everywhere in our books of business that we can, we continue to pass through the inflation that’s being seen in the materials and also in the labor because in the projects businesses, labor is also important as well.”

  SLB (Energy): “But I believe that the tool box we have and the professional and very experienced organization we have in our planning and supply chain and manufacturing organization that are used to manage some inflationary pressure has allowed us to mitigate and edged this inflationary pressure and contain cost inflation […] under our roofs.”

  CE (Materials): “But we did raise price more than we saw our materials increasing. And I think that’s a question of mix. I mean what – we are in a very tight supply constrained situation. So we have been prioritizing our higher margin products and our higher market –higher margin region to really maximize the return that we get for the molecules thatwe have available to sell to the market.”

  ADM (Materials): “In our scenario, margins normalize, we have inflation and then we are able to offset a lot of that through growth and through productivity.”

  INTC (Tech): “Since April, we have seen supply chain inflation happening faster than we are electing to pass through to our customers, further impacting our second half gross margin outlook.”

  LUV (Industrials): “We are mindful of the tight job market, as well as general inflationary pressures. We expect to have wage rate inflation beyond our normal annual wage rate increases, as we want to be competitive to retain and attract talent, including the decision to increase the minimum hourly wage to $15 per hour across all workgroups, we now estimate, $5 million to $10 million of additional salary, wages, and benefits cost pressure in third quarter and approximately $15 million in fourth quarter.”

  GPC (Consumer Discretionary): “In the second quarter, there was significant pricing activity with our suppliers resulting in product cost inflation. We were positioned to pass these increases on to our customers and the impact of price inflation was neutral to gross margin. We estimate a 1.5% impact of inflation in automotive sales for the quarter and a 1% impact in industrial. Based on the current environment, we expect this to increase further through the second half of the year.”

  NUE (Materials): “So we’ll see some price inflation that will cause working capital to go up further, but probably not at the same pace as we experienced in Q2.”

  POOL (Consumer Discretionary): “Inflation, as we have previously mentioned, has been above average this year and is trending to 5% to 6% for the year in total. This has had no meaningful impact on demand and has passed through the channel as is typically the case.”

  NEM (Materials): “The impacts of the pandemic are also driving cost inflation around the globe. We are now expecting cost escalation of around 3% to 5% for materials, energy and labor. And we expect these pressures to continue through until at least the end of next year.

  FCX (Materials): “Everyone is focused on inflation around the world and the impact on mining companies. And as Kathleen said, we’ve had higher energy costs, higher grinding material cost, but Josh Olmsted and our Americas team has just done a great job in helping offset that.”

  UNP (Industrials): “And as we experience a strong demand environment, our pricing actions continue to yield dollars in excess of inflation.”
  DGX (Health Care): “So there’s nothing extraordinary in the back half of the year in terms of labor inflation.”

  MMC (Financials): “The pace of price increases continued to moderate, but still remains high, reflecting elevated loss activity and concerns about inflation and low interest rates.”

  ALLE (Industrials): “Allegion is not immune to inflation and the supply chain constraints impacting industrial markets. Allegion navigated well during Q2, but these industry-wide constraints will persist for the remainder of the year and put pressure on margins for the short-term.”
  “We’ve seen an acceleration of inflation, predominantly in commodity costs, material components, freight, packaging, et cetera. It’s continued to be a headwind. As you know, we’re pretty aggressive moving on price and we’re taking similar actions in the back half of this year. We’ve went ahead and announced a price increase that will take effect at the beginning of Q4. So, there’s going to be some margin pressure, I would say, given the acceleration in inflation particularly in Q3.”

  WHR (Consumer Discretionary): “Structural cost takeout actions, higher volumes and ongoing cost productivity initiatives delivered 550 basis points of net cost margin improvement. These margin benefits were partially offset by raw material inflation, particularly steel and resins, which resulted in an unfavorable impact of 400 basis points.”

  CSX (Industrials): “The good news is we have secured adequate inventory and supply commitments for critical materials, and we’ve worked to lock in the vast majority of unit costs for 2021. Excluding locomotive fuel, expense inflation this quarter was just above 3% and we don’t expect that to move much going into the second half.”

  NTRS (Financials): “Inflation is showing up in different areas. I mean every firm is dealing with talent issues and the pressure is there. We certainly see that and experience it and talking at management levels about how to address it. And the inflation we see across the business and different areas as well. And some of it is unit costs but some of it is just the increased cost of doing business. And we talked about the significant increase in technology oriented expenses that we’re having. In some ways that’s an inflation cost on the business. It’s not just a unit price inflation but it’s inflation in the overall cost of doing business. So, it’s showing up in different ways across the organization.”

  BKR (Energy): “Although we have moved quickly to pass inflation on to our customers, there is a timing lag relative to the increase in costs.”

  JNJ (Health Care): “We continue to expect in the back half of the year pressure in parts of our portfolio in terms of commodity inflation and distribution cost. We are prepared to absorb those.”

  CMG (Consumer Discretionary): “We anticipate these commodity headwinds will negatively impact the quarter by an additional 60 basis points to 80 basis points, essentially offsetting the benefit of menu price increases. This will result in food costs for Q3 being at or slightly above the percentage we saw in Q2. Over the next few quarters, we’ll have greater visibility on how much of this inflation is permanent versus transitory, and we can take the appropriate actions as needed to help offset any lasting impacts.”

  DOV (Industrials): “What we underestimated was the total cost impacts of a strained logistics system and tight labor market that shows no signs of abating. This has had two knock-on effects on our results. First, the absolute cost of inbound and outbound freight were materially higher; and second and more important, the costs associated with production line stoppages due to lack of labor and components caused by transit time uncertainty and overall supply chain tightness.”… “I think that there is an interesting argument, and I would agree with it that to the extent that labor inflation is durable and that supply chains, the issues that we’re having in supply chains will improve, but not dramatically. There’s an argument to be made that the returns on automation are going to be better than they’ve been over the last five to six years. And I would agree with that.”

  KSU (Industrials): “Core pricing and contract renewals were essentially in line with the first quarter, but we are clearly seeing inflationary pressures that will need to be addressed going forward. As we look into the back half of 2021, we would expect the auto chip shortage to continue to negatively impact our growth, with a strong bounce-back late in the year and into 2022 as auto demand continues to be extremely high and dealer inventories at all-time lows.”… “We’ve now got to step up in inflation. So, we need to kind of deal with that going forward because our long-term strategy has always been to price above the cost of inflation. But an interesting dynamic and even the fed looking at their long-term projections around inflation would suggest inflation is going to come back down in 2022. So, there are interesting discussions with customers to have and we’re going to do our best to continue to make sure we cover cost increases in our business there.”

  PPG (Materials): “Due to supply disruptions, we experienced unprecedented levels of raw material and transportation costs that continually elevated as the quarter progressed. This drove raw material inflation to be up a mid to high-teen percentage on a year-over-year basis versus our original estimate of a high single-digit percentage increase.”… “Clearly this inflation cycle is much higher than anyone anticipated, and we’re continuing on a business-by-business basis, working to secure further selling price increases. This includes executing additional pricing actions during the third quarter.”…“We now fully expect to offset raw material cost inflation in the fourth quarter on 2021 on a run rate basis.”…“But if we could get the overall base supply/demand (back in) balance, if you will, in our supply chain, I think prices would start to normalize somewhat. We don’t see that happening in 2021. So right now, we’re still anticipating significant inflation, when we said it’s 20% in Q3 and we’ll have a significant inflation in Q4. So for as far as we can currently look out, we’re still looking at a pretty inflationary cycle.”

  FAST (Industrials): “Price actions to-date have largely matched cost increases. There’s a ton of inflation going on. There’s inflation because of disruption and shipping,”… “The marketplace is still receptive to price actions and the tools and processes we have developed have been effective. Even so, given the rate of inflation, maintaining price cost parity will be a bigger challenge in the third quarter.”

  CAG (Staples): “We expect the negative impact of the cost inflation to hit our financials before the beneficial impact of our responsive actions, including our pricing. This timing mismatch is expected to be particularly impactful in (fiscal) H1 and, more specifically, in (fiscal) Q1. The resulting pressure on our first half margins impact our full year profit […] Although the substantial increase in inflation over the last few months has negatively impacted our profit guidance for the (fiscal) year, we remain confident in the underlying strength of the business. […] Importantly, we expect that the impact of our aggressive mitigating actions will cause second half adjusted EPS to rebound, to be in line with what was assumed for (fiscal) H2 within our prior guidance.”… “When we initially gave our fiscal 2022 targets at our Investor Day in April of 2019, our models assumed an annual inflation rate of around 3%. At the time of our third quarter call, in April of 2021, we expected fiscal 2022 inflation to come in at twice that level around 6% […] We now currently expect fiscal 2022 inflation to come in around 9%. The difference between the 6% we expected a few months ago and the 9% we expect today equates to approximately $255 million in additional costs during fiscal 2022.”

  JPM (Financials): “In terms of inflation, I would say that we’re not seeing inflation in our actuals. But obviously, your guess is as good as mine in terms of the future. But it would be reasonable to assume that that’s going to be a little bit of a challenge… it won’t make any difference as long as you have that strong growth in consumer there. Jobs are plentiful; wages are going up. These are all good things. And so, obviously, inflation could be worse than people think. I think it’ll be a little bit worse than what the Fed thinks. I don’t think it’s all going to be temporary. But that doesn’t matter if we have very strong growth.”

  MKC (Staples): “We’re seeing broad-based inflation across our various commodities, packaging materials and transportation costs. To offset rising costs, we are raising prices where appropriate, but usually there is a lag time associated with pricing, particularly with how quickly costs are escalating. And therefore, most of our actions won’t go into effect until late 2021.”

  PEP (Staples): “We’re seeing inflation in our business across many of our raw ingredients and some of our inputs in labor and freight and everything else. So, we operate in the same context. We feel quite comfortable or confident that through a combination of net revenue management initiatives and increased productivity, we can navigate this.”

  CTAS (Industrials): “While some inflationary pressures increased certain costs, these were more than offset by increased revenue from businesses reopening or increasing capacity as COVID-19 case counts fell and restrictions on businesses were reduced.”

  ZION (Financials): “This outlook does not reflect a significant change in inflation from what we’ve observed over the past several years which we believe is an emerging and increasingly important risk to our outlook.”… “But there is no softening in the concerns about supply chain or concerns about inflation. Those concerns are real. They’re certainly remaining steady, if not building, in terms of the minds of business owners.”

  SIVB (Financials): “If we do see inflation, I actually think it’s going to be modest, I don’t think it’s going to be something that would be a fundamental change that would cause the market to get overly spooked. But again, something to pay attention to, and that’s just my own opinion.”

  WRB (Financials): “We continue to be very focused on inflation. From our perspective, inflation is very much here. There’re some people that talked about it being this transient that may be true. I’m not quite sure when people talk about transient, well, how long is transient, regardless the costs of things are up today. But even if you saw inflation return to a 2.5% or 3% level, we continue to believe that the 10-year at 130% or less doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for a long run.”

  RHI (Industrials): “We’re passing through the wage inflation that we’re having and we’ve actually expanded our margin.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 19:20

• Evictions Start With Nancy Pelosi & The House On A 7-Week Break
  Evictions Start With Nancy Pelosi & The House On A 7-Week Break

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  The pain starts in the South. Laws and procedures to evict tenants in some Southern states are among the most landlord-friendly in U.S…

  

  Nationally, about 16% of adult renters live in households that are behind on rent payments.

  Checking in With Nancy Pelosi

  1. It seems to me you are asking the CDC to overrule the Supreme Court.

  2. You were warned in advance of this event by the Supreme Court in May.

  3. You had months to do something and didn’t.

  — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) August 1, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  CDC Powerless

  Inaccurate Summary.

  “In my view, clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary for the CDC to extend the moratorium past July 31,” Kavanaugh wrote.

  Search for Brett Kavanaugh in my article.

  Time ran outhttps://t.co/3KL9Aq574v

  — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) August 2, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Time Ran Out on Renters

  “In my view, clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary for the CDC to extend the moratorium past July 31,” Kavanaugh wrote.

  The WSJ reports Renters in South Appearing Most Vulnerable.

  A senior White House official said last week that an administrative—rather than legislative—extension of the moratorium would quickly be struck down by the Supreme Court. [Mish Comment: How can Pelosi not know this?”]

  Renters in Southern states are among the most vulnerable to the ban’s expiration, U.S. Census survey data indicate. Mississippi, South Carolina and Georgia tenants are more likely to carry rent debt than the U.S. average, surveys show. Nationally, about 16% of adult renters live in households that are behind on rent payments.

  In Mississippi, tenants can lose their eviction case in court and be removed from their home on the same day. In Arkansas, landlords can pursue criminal charges for tenants who don’t pay rent. And in western Tennessee, where a federal judge ruled that the CDC ban was unconstitutional, tenants are already getting evicted for nonpayment.

  Rent increases in cities like Charlotte, N.C., Jacksonville, Fla., and Memphis, Tenn., have outpaced the rest of the country. In Atlanta, rents rose 12.7% during the past year, according to listings website Apartment List, exceeding the national average of 10.3%. Rents in some Atlanta suburbs have risen more than 20% during that period.

  On CNN, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) said on Sunday that the House should reconvene to extend the moratorium and she also cast blame on the White House for not requesting Congress act earlier. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

  Federal Program

  The Federal program only pays 60% of lost rent to landlords. Admittedly, that’s much better than nothing, but it’s also an illegal action by the government to impose such losses. 

  Although the money does not go to renters, they still have to apply, but didn’t. That’s why almost all of the $46.6 billion in federal rental assistance sits undistributed. The Mississippi distribution rate is a mere 6% of allotment. 

  The Biden administration did little or nothing to promote this assistance. 

  A judge in DeKalb county Georgia (Atlanta) extended the eviction ban (illegally in my opinion), but at least the official wants to pay landlords 100% of back rent. 

  But who is it that’s really paying? If the Federal program only pays 60% then De Kalb taxpayers will foot the rest. 

  Warning Shot Ignored

  Congress and the Biden administration had a clear warning shot from Justice Kavanaugh and did nothing, not even promote the program that was in place. 

  How Many are Impacted?

  I discussed that question ahead of the pack last week in At Least 12 Million Face Eviction as Moratorium Ends. 

  The wording in the Census discussion I downloaded was a bit confusing. I originally reported “households” but the numbers appear to be total number of people.

  Census Department Data

  Here is the Census Department Data Feed. I pulled data from the Housing Tables, specifically 1A, 1B, 2A, and 2B. 

  • Table 1a. Last Month’s Payment Status for Owner Occupied Housing Units, by Select Characteristics
  • Table 1b. Last Month’s Payment Status for Renter Occupied Housing Units, by Select Characteristics
  • Table 2a. Confidence in Ability to Make Next Month’s Payment for Owner Occupied Housing Units, by Select Characteristics
  • Table 2b. Confidence in Ability to Make Next Month’s Payment for Renter Occupied Housing Units, by Select Characteristics

  Household Calculation

  I believe we can derive households. 

  Let’s start with 1B: “Household currently caught up on rent payments” specifically the column that says “No” to caught up on rent.

  That total is 7,433,895 individuals, not households.

  We can derive households by dividing those not current by household size. 

  Households Not Current in Rent

  

  Note: Size of household at 7 is actually 7 or more. Thus, households not current in line 7 is slightly high as I divided by 7.

  Unfortunately, the table is a huge understatement of the problem. 

  The Census Department reported 50,922,215 people living in rental units with 7,433,895 behind in rent (I total 1 more). Importantly, the bureau also reported 72,166,927 did not report to tenure. 

  More people did not accurately respond to the survey than those who did. 

  How many of those who are not current is a mystery. 

  Those unwilling to admit they are behind is another issue.

  There is also an issue of expiring Federal unemployment benefits such that even if people are current, they fear they will not be. And finally, rents are rising fast.

  Let’s now look at “confidence”, table 2B. 

  Households Not Confident in Ability to Pay Rent

  

  There are 4,562,469 households that fear ability to make rent payments. 

  If we total no confidence and slight confidence individuals we get 4,859,440 + 7,853,495 = 12,712,935 people fearing eviction.

  Once again however, that number is hugely understated because there were 72,166,927 did not report to tenure and only 50,922,215 who did.

  Here are my rental charts again, with numbers reflecting individuals, not households.

  Rent Payment Status

  

  Confidence in Ability to Pay Rent

  

  Recap

  12,712,935 people in 4,859,440 households fear eviction. Those numbers are hugely understated. The Census total shown in the chart above is off my total of their numbers by 1. 

  The House is now in recess with warning shots by the Supreme Court ignored. 

  Place the Blame 

  There is a huge amount of blame to spread around but please note that even the Democrat-governed states failed to promote the Federal rent assistance programs. 

  Through June, only $3 billion of an allocated $47 billion was spent.

  Neither the Administration nor the House nor state governors – anywhere – promoted the existing Federal rent assistance programs.

  By the way, rental assistance is a budget item. Democrats could easily have passed a better program through reconciliation even without support of Republicans.

  There are only 2 people to blame for that failure: Biden and Pelosi.

  Start at the Beginning

  We need go back and start at the beginning. 

  Eviction moratoriums are just plain wrong without compensation to the owners. 

  How would you like it if you rented out a 2-flat and the government came along and told your tenants they did not have to pay rent? 

  Then you seek to evict but Biden extends the eviction moratorium followed by the CDC three more times. Total it up and you have not been paid rent for 15 months but your bills are due.

  This is flat out unconstitutional confiscation of property.

  Trump was wrong to declare an unpaid moratorium, Biden was wrong to extend it, the CDC was wrong to extend it three times, and Pelosi remains clueless about what the Supreme Court ruled. 

  Addendum

  I just got a call from the Census Department. The woman I talked to confirmed that my approach to determining the number of households is reasonable. 

  She agreed that because 72,166,927 individuals did not report to tenure and only 50,922,215 did report that the numbers of individuals and households in trouble is low. 

  There is no way to further quantify “how low” because the people who don’t respond and those who do are very different sets so one should not extrapolate the numbers. 

  All we know is approximately 12.7 million people in approximately 4.9 million households fear eviction and those numbers are definitely low.

  *  *  *

  Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 19:00

• Biden Admin Is Booting 24 More Russian Diplomats By September 
  Biden Admin Is Booting 24 More Russian Diplomats By September 

  Russia has announced Monday that two dozen of its diplomats in the United States will essentially be booted from the country after their visas expire during the first week of September.

  “Russia’s ambassador to the United States said Washington had asked 24 Russian diplomats to leave the country by Sept. 3 after their visas expired,” Reuters writes. “Anatoly Antonov did not say whether the US request was prompted by any particular dispute, and there was no immediate comment from Washington.”

  Moscow has cited stringent visa procedures which will likely bar the diplomats from being able to renew them. “Almost all of them will leave without replacements because Washington has abruptly tightened visa issuing procedures,” Ambassador Antonov said on Sunday.

  

  “We hope that common sense will prevail and we will be able to normalize the life of Russian and American diplomats in the United States and Russia on the principle of reciprocity,” the top Russian diplomat in the US added.

  Despite the momentary ‘bright spot’ for potential US-Russia rapprochement seen on June 16 during Biden and Putin’s Geneva summit where the two vowed to re-open talks on arms control and cybersecurity threats, and also crucially decided to restore each’s ambassadors to their posts, this latest development appears to be likely retaliation for this:

  The United States said Friday it has laid off nearly 200 local staffers working for its diplomatic missions in Russia ahead of an August 1 deadline set by the Kremlin for their dismissal. The move is the latest in a series of measures taken by both sides that have strained U.S.-Russia relations. 

  Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the layoffs are regrettable and something the U.S. had hoped to avert, despite a sharp deterioration in ties between Moscow and Washington, which show few signs of improvement.  

  All of this was based on prior tit-for-tat escalating moves, given earlier in the year Russia announced a new ban on its citizens working at the US embassy in Moscow and consulates in Yekaterinburg and Vladivosto. The US had earlier expelled Russian diplomats from US soil.

  Blinken had said further of last Friday’s local staffer layoff in Russia :”These unfortunate measures will severely impact the US mission to Russia’s operations, potentially including the safety of our personnel as well as our ability to engage in diplomacy with the Russian government.”

  Meanwhile, Russian ambassador Antonov urged that instead of more ‘counter moves’ in the diplomatic arena which will only further hurt and strain communications, “As an option, we can debate on cyber threats to arms control systems, etc,” he offered. Last week the US and Russia did began nuclear arms control talks based on a prior Biden-Putin agreement made in Geneva.

  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov had told the WSJ: “We are just at the very beginning of what I hope would be a sustainable process,” but he added the caveat: “At this point in time we in Moscow don’t have any sense if we would be able to succeed.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 18:40

• Chicago Officials Trying To Block $1 Million Tax Refund On Trump Building
  Chicago Officials Trying To Block $1 Million Tax Refund On Trump Building

  Authored by Isabel van Brugen via The Epoch Times,

  Chicago officials are trying to block former President Donald Trump from receiving a $1 million tax refund that the Illinois Property Tax Appeal Board ruled is owed on his Chicago skyscraper’s 2011 tax bill.

  The office of Cook County State’s Attorney Kimberly Foxx filed a lawsuit with the Illinois Appellate Court on July 9 disputing the refund, noting that the money would come out of the property taxes due to the city of Chicago, the Chicago Public Schools and several other government agencies.

  The lawsuit comes after the board ruled in a 5-0 vote in June that the former president is owed a total tax refund of $1.03 million as the value of the Trump International Hotel & Tower had been overassessed.

  

  The tax agency ruled that the “Cook County Board of Review overestimated the value of the building’s hotel rooms and retail space,” the Chicago Sun-Times reported.

  The Epoch Times has reached out to the Trump Organization for comment.

  The dispute over the tax bills on the high-rise building is the latest chapter in a long-running legal battle over Trump’s tax bills that started more than 12 years ago and has led to more than $14 million in tax breaks for the former president.

  Originally, the state agency rejected Trump’s argument that the vacant stores had no value because he could not find any tenants to lease them. A hearing officer for the state agency rejected Trump’s argument that the vacant stores at the building had no value because he couldn’t lease them. But a staff member later wrote a report that Trump was entitled to the refund.

  The agency delayed acting on the case until Trump was out of office and in June voted to reduce the assessment on the building’s commercial property.

  This comes as the Department of Justice said that tax officials must hand over Trump’s tax returns to a congressional panel, after a lawyer in the department’s Office of Legal Counsel on July 31 reversed a 2019 decision that said they didn’t have to be given to Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, because Neal was “disingenuous” about the true purpose of seeking the returns.

  After Trump was elected in 2016, a number of Democrats have attempted to obtain his tax returns. The former president has refused to release them to the public.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 18:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Burundi Has The Lowest GDP-Per-Capita In The World, US The Highest
  Burundi Has The Lowest GDP-Per-Capita In The World, US The Highest

  GDP per capita has steadily risen globally over time, and, as Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop notes, in tandem, the standard of living worldwide has increased immensely.

  This map using data from the IMF shows the GDP per capita (nominal) of nearly every country and territory in the world.

  

  GDP per capita is one of the best measures of a country’s wealth as it provides an understanding of how each country’s citizens live on average, showing a representation of the quantity of goods and services created per person.

  The Standard of Living Over Time

  Looking at history, our standard of living has increased drastically. According to Our World in Data, from 1820 to 2018, the average global GDP per capita increased by almost 15x.

  Literacy rates, access to vaccines, and basic education have also improved our quality of life, while things like child mortality rates and poverty have all decreased.

  For example, in 1990, 1.9 billion people lived in extreme poverty, which was 36% of the world’s population at the time. Over the last 30 years, the number has been steadily decreasing — by 2030, an estimated 479 million people will be living in extreme poverty, which according to UN population estimates, will represent only 6% of the population.

  That said, economic inequality between different regions is still prevalent. In fact, the richest country today (in terms of nominal GDP per capita), Luxembourg, is over 471x more wealthy than the poorest, Burundi.

  Here’s a look at the 10 countries with the highest GDP per capita in 2021:

  

  However, not all citizens in Luxembourg are extremely wealthy. In fact:

  • 29% of people spend over 40% of their income on housing costs

  • 31% would be at risk of falling into poverty if they had to forgo 3 months of income

  The cost of living is expensive in Luxembourg — but the standard of living in terms of goods and services produced is the highest in the world. Additionally, only 4% of the population reports low life satisfaction.

  Emerging Economies and Developing Countries

  Although we have never lived in a more prosperous period, and poverty rates have been declining overall, this year global extreme poverty rose for the first time in over two decades.

  About 120 million additional people are living in poverty as a result of the pandemic, with the total expected to rise to about 150 million by the end of 2021.

  Many of the poorest countries in the world are also considered Least Developed Countries (LDCs) by the UN. In these countries, more than 75% of the population live below the poverty line.

  Here’s a look at the 10 countries with the lowest GDP per capita:

  

  Life in these countries offers a stark contrast compared to the top 10. Here’s a glance at the quality of life in the poorest country, Burundi:

  • 80% of the population works in agriculture

  • 1 in 3 Burundians are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance

  • Average households spend up to two-thirds of their income on food

  However, many of the world’s poorest countries can also be classified as emerging markets with immense economic potential in the future.

  In fact, China has seen the opportunity in emerging economies. Their confidence in these regions is best exemplified in the Belt and Road initiative which has funneled massive investments into infrastructure projects across multiple African countries.

  Continually Raising the Bar

  Prosperity is a very recent reality only characterizing the last couple hundred years. In pre-modern societies, the average person was living in conditions that would be considered extreme poverty by today’s standards.

  Overall, the standard of living for everyone today is immensely improved compared to even recent history, and some countries will be experiencing rapid economic growth in the future.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 02:45

• Craig Murray's Jailing Is The Latest Move In A Battle To Snuff Out Independent Journalism
  Craig Murray’s Jailing Is The Latest Move In A Battle To Snuff Out Independent Journalism

  Authored by Jonathan Cook,

  Craig Murray, a former ambassador to Uzbekistan, the father of a newborn child, a man in very poor health and one who has no prior convictions, handed himself over to the Scottish police on Sunday morning.

  He becomes the first person ever to be imprisoned on the obscure and vaguely defined charge of “jigsaw identification”.

  

  Murray is also the first person to be jailed in Britain for contempt of court for their journalism in half a century – a period when such different legal and moral values prevailed that the British establishment had only just ended the prosecution of “homosexuals” and the jailing of women for having abortions.

  📢PRESS RELEASE: Craig Murray to be first person incarcerated in the UK over media contempt case in 50 years, setting dangerous legal precedent for freedom of speech and equality before the law.

  👇 pic.twitter.com/lvZSiGEkkm

  — Craig Murray Justice campaign (@cmurrayjustice) July 29, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Murray’s imprisonment for eight months by Lady Dorrian, Scotland’s second most senior judge, is of course based entirely on a keen reading of Scottish law rather than evidence of the Scottish and London political establishments seeking revenge on the former diplomat. And the UK supreme court’s refusal on Thursday to hear Murray’s appeal despite many glaring legal anomalies in the case, thereby paving his path to jail, is equally rooted in a strict application of the law, and not influenced in any way by political considerations.

  Murray’s jailing has nothing to do with the fact that he embarrassed the British state in the early 2000s by becoming that rarest of things: a whistleblowing diplomat. He exposed the British government’s collusion, along with the US, in Uzbekistan’s torture regime.

  His jailing also has nothing to do with the fact that Murray has embarrassed the British state more recently by reporting the woeful and continuing legal abuses in a London courtroom as Washington seeks to extradite Wikileaks’ founder, Julian Assange, and lock him away for life in a maximum security prison. The US wants to make an example of Assange for exposing its war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan and for publishing leaked diplomatic cables that pulled the mask off Washington’s ugly foreign policy.

  Murray’s jailing has nothing to do with the fact that the contempt proceedings against him allowed the Scottish court to deprive him of his passport so that he could not travel to Spain and testify in a related Assange case that is severely embarrassing Britain and the US. The Spanish hearing has been presented with reams of evidence that the US illegally spied on Assange inside the Ecuadorean embassy in London, where he sought political asylum to avoid extradition. Murray was due to testify that his own confidential conversations with Assange were filmed, as were Assange’s privileged meetings with his own lawyers. Such spying should have seen the case against Assange thrown out, had the judge in London actually been applying the law.

  Actually what I found most shocking about that was the peculiar determination of the judges to make sure that, during the three weeks we have to lodge the appeal, I am not allowed to go to Spain to testify in the criminal prosecution for the CIA spying on Assange’s legal team.

  — Craig Murray – 1st day in prison (@CraigMurrayOrg) May 11, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Similarly, Murray’s jailing has nothing to do with his embarrassing the Scottish political and legal establishments by reporting, almost single-handedly, the defence case in the trial of Scotland’s former First Minister, Alex Salmond. Unreported by the corporate media, the evidence submitted by Salmond’s lawyers led a jury dominated by women to acquit him of a raft of sexual assault charges. It is Murray’s reporting of Salmond’s defence that has been the source of his current troubles.

  And most assuredly, Murray’s jailing has precisely nothing to do with his argument – one that might explain why the jury was so unconvinced by the prosecution case – that Salmond was actually the victim of a high-level plot by senior politicians at Holyrood to discredit him and prevent his return to the forefront of Scottish politics. The intention, says Murray, was to deny Salmond the chance to take on London and make a serious case for independence, and thereby expose the SNP’s increasing lip service to that cause.

  Relentless attack

  Murray has been a thorn in the side of the British establishment for nearly two decades. Now they have found a way to lock him up just as they have Assange, as well as tie Murray up potentially for years in legal battles that risk bankrupting him as he seeks to clear his name.

  And given his extremely precarious health – documented in detail to the court – his imprisonment further risks turning eight months into a life sentence. Murray nearly died from a pulmonary embolism 17 years ago when he was last under such relentless attack from the British establishment. His health has not improved since.

  At that time, in the early 2000s, in the run-up to and early stages of the invasion of Iraq, Murray effectively exposed the complicity of fellow British diplomats – their preference to turn a blind eye to the abuses sanctioned by their own government and its corrupt and corrupting alliance with the US.

  Later, when Washington’s “extraordinary rendition” – state-sponsored kidnapping – programme came to light, as well as its torture regime at places like Abu Ghraib, the spotlight should have turned to the failure of diplomats to speak out. Unlike Murray, they refused to turn whistleblower. They provided cover to the illegality and barbarism.

  For his pains, Murray was smeared by Tony Blair’s government as, among other things, a sexual predator – charges a Foreign Office investigation eventually cleared him of. But the damage was done, with Murray forced out. A commitment to moral and legal probity was clearly incompatible with British foreign policy objectives.

  Murray had to reinvent his career, and he did so through a popular blog. He has applied the same dedication to truth-telling and commitment to the protection of human rights in his journalism – and has again run up against equally fierce opposition from the British establishment.

  Two-tier journalism

  The most glaring, and disturbing, legal innovation in Lady Dorrian’s ruling against Murray – and the main reason he is heading to prison – is her decision to divide journalists into two classes: those who work for approved corporate media outlets, and those like Murray who are independent, often funded by readers rather than paid big salaries by billionaires or the state.

  According to Lady Dorrian, licensed, corporate journalists are entitled to legal protections she denied to unofficial and independent journalists like Murray – the very journalists who are most likely to take on governments, criticise the legal system, and expose the hypocrisy and lies of the corporate media.

  In finding Murray guilty of so-called “jigsaw identification”, Lady Dorrian did not make a distinction between what Murray wrote about the Salmond case and what approved, corporate journalists wrote.

  That is for good reason. Two surveys have shown that most of those following the Salmond trial who believe they identified one or more of his accusers did so from the coverage of the corporate media, especially the BBC. Murray’s writings appear to have had very little impact on the identification of any of the accusers. Among named individual journalists, Dani Garavelli, who wrote about the trial for Scotland on Sunday and the London Review of Books, was cited 15 times more often by respondents than Murray as helping them to identify Salmond’s accusers.

  The polling was conducted by Panelbase as an extra question in one of their standard Scottish opinion polls. I paid for the question but there was no mechanism by which I could affect the results.
  Is showed Dani Garavelli as by far the biggest source of identification. https://t.co/sAqY9tbJw0 pic.twitter.com/D1D6o9A7i7

  — Craig Murray – 1st day in prison (@CraigMurrayOrg) February 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Rather, Lady Dorrian’s distinction was about who is awarded protection when identification occurs. Write for the Times or the Guardian, or broadcast on the BBC, where the audience reach is enormous, and the courts will protect you from prosecution. Write about the same issues for a blog, and you risk being hounded into prison.

  In fact, the legal basis of “jigsaw identification” – one could argue the whole point of it – is that it accrues dangerous powers to the state. It gives permission for the legal establishment to arbitrarily decide which piece of the supposed jigsaw is to be counted as identification. If the BBC’s Kirsty Wark includes a piece of the jigsaw, it does not count as identification in the eyes of the court. If Murray or another independent journalist offers a different piece of the jigsaw, it does count. The obvious ease with which this principle can be abused by the establishment to oppress and silence dissident journalists should not need underscoring.

  And yet this is no longer Lady Dorrian’s ruling alone. In refusing to hear Murray’s appeal, the UK supreme court has offered its blessing to this same dangerous, two-tiered classification.

  Credentialed by the state

  What Lady Dorrian has done is to overturn traditional views of what constitutes journalism: that it is a practice that at its very best is designed to hold the powerful to account, and that anyone who engages in such work is doing journalism, whether or not they are typically thought of as a journalist.

  That idea was obvious until quite recently. When social media took off, one of the gains trumpeted even by the corporate media was the emergence of a new kind of “citizen journalist”. At that stage, corporate media believed that these citizen journalists would become cheap fodder, providing on-the-ground, local stories they alone would have access to and that only the establishment media would be in a position to monetise. This was precisely the impetus for the Guardian’s Comment is Free section, which in its early incarnation allowed a varied selection of people with specialist knowledge or information to provide the paper with articles for free to increase the paper’s sales and advertising rates.

  The establishment’s attitude to citizen journalists, and the Guardian’s to the Comment is Free model, only changed when these new journalists started to prove hard to control, and their work often highlighted inadvertently or otherwise the inadequacies, deceptions and double standards of the corporate media.

  Now, Lady Dorrian has put the final nail in the coffin of citizen journalism. She has declared through her ruling that she and other judges will be the ones to decide who is considered a journalist and thereby who receives legal protections for their work. This is a barely concealed way for the state to license or “credentialise” journalists. It turns journalism into a professional guild with only official, corporate journalists safe from legal retribution by the state.

  If you are an unapproved, uncredentialed journalist, you can be jailed, as Murray is being, on a similar legal basis to the imprisonment of someone who carries out a surgical operation without the necessary qualifications. But whereas the law against charlatan surgeons is there to protect the public, to stop unnecessary harm being inflicted on the sick, Lady Dorrian’s ruling will serve a very different purpose: to protect the state from the harm caused by the exposure of its secret or most malign practices by trouble-making, sceptical – and now largely independent – journalists.

  Journalism is being corralled back into the exclusive control of the state and billionaire-owned corporations. It may not be surprising that corporate journalists, keen to hold on to their jobs, are consenting through their silence to this all-out assault on journalism and free speech. After all, this is a kind of protectionism – additional job security – for journalists employed by a corporate media that has no real intention to challenge the powerful.

  But what is genuinely shocking is that this dangerous accretion of further power to the state and its allied corporate class is being backed implicitly by the British journalists’ union, the NUJ. It has kept quiet over the many months of attacks on Murray and the widespread efforts to discredit him for his reporting. The NUJ has made no significant noise about Lady Dorrian’s creation of two classes of journalists – state-approved and unapproved – or about her jailing of Murray on these grounds.

  But the NUJ has gone further. Its leaders have publicly washed their  hands of Murray by excluding him from membership of the union, even while its officials have conceded that he should qualify. The NUJ has become as complicit in the hounding of a journalist as Murray’s fellow diplomats once were for his hounding as an ambassador. This is a truly shameful episode in the NUJ’s history.

  Calling all NUJ Members – When a country’s main union for journalists polices the Overton window, you are in a society well on the way to authoritarianism. For four months I have been excluded from the National Union of Journalists and, despite repeated https://t.co/RrdjiXUmmo

  — Craig Murray – 1st day in prison (@CraigMurrayOrg) July 16, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Free speech criminalised

  But more dangerous still, Lady Dorrian’s ruling is part of a pattern in which the political, judicial and media establishments have colluded to narrow the definition of what counts as journalism, to exclude anything beyond the pap that usually passes for journalism in the corporate media.

  Murray has been one of the few journalists to report in detail the arguments made by Assange’s legal team in his extradition hearings. Noticeably in both the Assange and Murray cases, the presiding judge has limited the free speech protections traditionally afforded to journalism and has done so by restricting who qualifies as a journalist. Both cases have been frontal assaults on the ability of certain kinds of journalists – those who are free from corporate or state pressure – to cover important political stories, effectively criminalising independent journalism. And all this has been achieved by sleight of hand.

  In Assange’s case, Judge Vanessa Baraitser largely assented to US claims that what the Wikileaks founder had done was espionage rather than journalism. The Obama administration had held off prosecuting Assange because it could not find a distinction in law between his legal right to publish evidence of US war crimes and the New York Times and the Guardian’s right to publish the same evidence, provided to them by Wikileaks. If the US administration prosecuted Assange, it would also need to prosecute the editors of those papers.

  Donald Trump’s officials bypassed that problem by creating a distinction between “proper” journalists, employed by corporate outlets that oversee and control what is published, and “bogus” journalists, those independents not subject to such oversight and pressures.

  Trump’s officials denied Assange the status of journalist and publisher and instead treated him as a spy who colluded with and assisted whistleblowers. That supposedly voided the free speech protections he constitutionally enjoyed. But, of course, the US case against Assange was patent nonsense. It is central to the work of investigative journalists to “collude” with and assist whistleblowers. And spies squirrel away the information provided to them by such whistleblowers, they do not publicise it to the world, as Assange did.

  Notice the parallels with Murray’s case.

  Judge Baraitser’s approach to Assange echoed the US one: that only approved, credentialed journalists enjoy the protection of the law from prosecution; only approved, credentialed journalists have the right to free speech (should they choose to exercise it in newsrooms beholden to state or corporate interests). Free speech and the protection of the law, Baraitser implied, no longer chiefly relate to the legality of what is said, but to the legal status of who says it.

  A similar methodology has been adopted by Lady Dorrian in Murray’s case. She has denied him the status of a journalist, and instead classified him as some kind of “improper” journalist, or blogger. As with Assange, there is an implication that “improper” or “bogus” journalists are such an exceptional threat to society that they must be stripped of the normal legal protections of free speech.

  “Jigsaw identification” – especially when allied to sexual assault allegations, involving women’s rights and playing into the wider, current obsession with identity politics – is the perfect vehicle for winning widespread consent for the criminalisation of the free speech of critical journalists.

  Corporate media shackles

  There is an even bigger picture that should be hard to miss for any honest journalist, corporate or otherwise. What Lady Dorrian and Judge Baraitser – and the establishment behind them – are trying to do is put the genie back in the bottle. They are trying to reverse a trend that over more than a decade has seen a small but growing number of journalists use new technology and social media to liberate themselves from the shackles of the corporate media and tell truths audiences were never supposed to hear.

  Don’t believe me? Consider the case of Guardian and Observer journalist Ed Vulliamy. In his book Flat Earth News, Vulliamy’s colleague at the Guardian Nick Davies tells the story of how Roger Alton, editor of the Observer at the time of the Iraq war, and a credentialed, licensed journalist if ever there was one, sat on one of the biggest stories in the paper’s history for months on end.

  In late 2002, Vulliamy, a veteran and much trusted reporter, persuaded Mel Goodman, a former senior CIA official who still had security clearance at the agency, to go on record that the CIA knew there were no WMD in Iraq – the pretext for an imminent and illegal invasion of that country. As many suspected, the US and British governments had been telling lies to justify a coming war of aggression against Iraq, and Vulliamy had a key source to prove it.

  But Alton spiked this earth-shattering story and then refused to publish another six versions written by an increasingly exasperated Vulliamy over the next few months, as war loomed. Alton was determined to keep the story out of the news. Back in 2002 it only took a handful of editors – all of whom had risen through the ranks for their discretion, nuance and careful “judgment” – to make sure some kinds of news never reached their readers.

  Social media has changed such calculations. Vulliamy’s story could not be quashed so easily today. It would leak out, precisely through a high-profile independent journalist like Assange or Murray. Which is why such figures are so critically important to a healthy and informed society – and why they, and a few others like them, are gradually being disappeared. The cost of allowing independent journalists to operate freely, the establishment has understood, is far too high.

  First, all independent, unlicensed journalism was lumped in as “fake news”. With that as the background, social media corporations were able to collude with so-called legacy media corporations to algorithm independent journalists into oblivion. And now independent journalists are being educated about what fate is likely to befall them should they try to emulate Assange or Murray.

  Asleep at the wheel

  In fact, while corporate journalists have been asleep at the wheel, the British establishment has been preparing to widen the net to criminalise all journalism that seeks to seriously hold power to account. A recent government consultation document calling for a more draconian crackdown on what is being deceptively termed “onward disclosure” – code for journalism – has won the backing of Home Secretary Priti Patel. The document implicitly categorises journalism as little different from espionage and whistleblowing.

  In the wake of the consultation paper, the Home Office has called on parliament to consider “increased maximum sentences” for offenders – that is, journalists – and ending the distinction “between espionage and the most serious unauthorised disclosures”. The government’s argument is that “onward disclosures” can create “far more serious damage” than espionage and so should be treated similarly. If accepted, any public interest defence – the traditional safeguard for journalists – will be muted.

  Anyone who followed the Assange hearings last summer – which excludes most journalists in the corporate media – will notice strong echoes of the arguments made by the US for extraditing Assange, arguments conflating journalism with espionage that were largely accepted by Judge Baraitser.

  None of this has come out of the blue. As the online technology publication The Register noted back in 2017, the Law Commission was at the time considering “proposals in the UK for a swingeing new Espionage Act that could jail journalists as spies”. It said such an act was being “developed in haste by legal advisers”.

  It is quite extraordinary that two investigative journalists – one a long-term, former member of staff at the Guardian – managed to write an entire article in that paper this month on the government consultation paper and not mention Assange once. The warning signs have been there for the best part of a decade but corporate journalists have refused to notice them. Similarly, it is no coincidence that Murray’s plight has also not registered on the corporate media’s radar.

  Assange and Murray are the canaries in the coal mine for the growing crackdown on investigative journalism and on efforts to hold executive power to account. There is, of course, ever less of that being done by the corporate media, which may explain why corporate outlets appear not only relaxed about the mounting political and legal climate against free speech and transparency but have been all but cheering it on.

  In the Assange and Murray cases, the British state is carving out for itself a space to define what counts as legitimate, authorised journalism – and journalists are colluding in this dangerous development, if only through their silence. That collusion tells us a great deal about the mutual interests of the corporate political and legal establishments, on the one hand, and the corporate media establishment on the other.

  Assange and Murray are not only telling us troubling truths we are not supposed to hear. The fact that they are being denied solidarity by those who are their colleagues, those who may be next in the firing line, tells us everything we need to know about the so-called mainstream media: that the role of corporate journalists is to serve establishment interests, not challenge them.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 02:00

• The Road To Totalitarianism
  The Road To Totalitarianism

  Authored by CJ Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

  People can tell themselves that they didn’t see where things have been heading for the last 17 months, but they did.

  They saw all the signs along the way. The signs were all written in big, bold letters, some of them in scary-looking Germanic script. They read …

  “THIS IS THE ROAD TO TOTALITARIANISM.”

  I’m not going to show you all those signs out again. People like me have been pointing them out, and reading them out loud, for 17 months now. Anyone who knows anything about the history of totalitarianism, how it incrementally transforms society into a monstrous mirror image of itself, has known since the beginning what the “New Normal” is, and we have been shouting from the rooftops about it.

  We have watched as the New Normal transformed our societies into paranoid, pathologized, authoritarian dystopias where people now have to show their “papers” to see a movie or get a cup of coffee and publicly display their ideological conformity to enter a supermarket and buy their groceries.

  We have watched as the New Normal transformed the majority of the masses into hate-drunk, hysterical mobs that are openly persecuting “the Unvaccinated,” the official “Untermenschen” of the New Normal ideology.

  We have watched as the New Normal has done precisely what every totalitarian movement in history has done before it, right by the numbers. We pointed all this out, each step of the way. I’m not going to reiterate all that again.

  I am, however, going to document where we are at the moment, and how we got here … for the record, so that the people who will tell you later that they “had no clue where the trains were going” will understand why we no longer trust them, and why we regard them as cowards and collaborators, or worse.

  Yes, that’s harsh, but this is not a game. It isn’t a difference of opinion. The global-capitalist ruling establishment is implementing a new, more openly totalitarian structure of society and method of rule. They are revoking our constitutional and human rights, transferring power out of sovereign governments and democratic institutions into unaccountable global entities that have no allegiance to any nation or its people.

  That is what is happening … right now. It isn’t a TV show. It’s actually happening.

  The time for people to “wake up” is over. At this point, you either join the fight to preserve what is left of those rights, and that sovereignty, or you surrender to the “New Normal,” to global-capitalist totalitarianism. I couldn’t care less what you believe about the virus, or its mutant variants, or the experimental “vaccines.” This isn’t an abstract argument over “the science.” It is a fight … a political, ideological fight. On one side is democracy, on the other is totalitarianism. Pick a fucking side, and live with it.

  Anyway, here’s where we are at the moment, and how we got here, just the broad strokes.

  It’s August 2021, and Germany has officially banned demonstrations against the “New Normal” official ideology. Other public assemblies, like the Christopher Street Day demo (pictured below), one week ago, are still allowed. The outlawing of political opposition is a classic hallmark of totalitarian systems. It’s also a classic move by the German authorities, which will give them the pretext they need to unleash the New Normal goon squads on the demonstrators tomorrow.

  

  In Australia, the military has been deployed to enforce total compliance with government decrees … lockdowns, mandatory public obedience rituals, etc. In other words, it is de facto martial law. This is another classic hallmark of totalitarian systems.

  In France, restaurant and other business owners who serve “the Unvaccinated” will now be imprisoned, as will, of course, “the Unvaccinated.” The scapegoating, demonizing, and segregating of “the Unvaccinated” is happening in countries all over the world. France is just an extreme example. The scapegoating, dehumanizing, and segregating of minorities — particularly the regime’s political opponents — is another classic hallmark of totalitarian systems.

  In the UK, Italy, Greece, and numerous other countries throughout the world, this pseudo-medical social-segregation system is also being introduced, in order to divide societies into “good people” (i.e., compliant) and “bad” (i.e., non-compliant).

  The “good people” are being given license and encouraged by the authorities and the corporate media to unleash their rage on the “the Unvaccinated,” to demand our segregation in internment camps, to openly threaten to viciously murder us.

  

  This is also a hallmark of totalitarian systems.

  And that, my friends, is where we are.

  We didn’t get here overnight. Here are just a few of the unmistakable signs along the road to totalitarianism that I have pointed out over the last 17 months.

  June 2020 … The New (Pathologized) Totalitarianism.

  August 2020 … The Invasion of the New Normals.

  October 2020 … The Covidian Cult.

  November 2020 … The Germans Are Back!

  March 2021 … The New Normal (Phase 2).

  March 2021 … The “Unvaccinated” Question.

  May 2021 … The Criminalization of Dissent.

  June 2021 … Manufacturing New Normal “Reality“.

  And now, here we are, where we have been heading all along, clearly, unmistakably heading … directly into The Approaching Storm, or possibly global civil war. This isn’t the end of the road to totalitarianism, but I’m pretty sure we are in the home stretch. It feels like things are about to get ugly. Very ugly. Extremely ugly. Those of us who are fighting to preserve our rights, and some basic semblance of democracy, are outnumbered, but we haven’t had our final say yet … and there are millions of us, and we are wide awake.

  So pick a side, if you haven’t already. But, before you do, maybe look back at the history of totalitarian systems, which, for some reason, never seem to work out for the totalitarians, at least not in the long run. I’m not a professional philosopher or anything, but I suspect that might have something to do with some people’s inextinguishable desire for freedom, and our willingness to fight for it, sometimes to the death.

  This kind of feels like one of those times.

  Sorry for going all “Braveheart” on you, but I’m psyching myself up to go get the snot beat out of me by the New Normal goon squads tomorrow, so I’m a little … you know, overly emotional.

  Seriously, though, pick a side … now … or a side will be picked for you.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/02/2021 – 00:00

• Can Masturbation Boost Your Immune System to Fight COVID? 
  Can Masturbation Boost Your Immune System to Fight COVID? 

  With COVID-19 and the Delta variant spreading worldwide, people have been exploring ways to boost their immune systems. Immunity-boosting supplements, exercising, eating healthy, reducing stress, and quitting smoking are some common strategies to boost the immune system, but now masturbating could be added to the list, according to The Sun. 

  

  Jennifer Landa, M.D., a specialist in hormone therapy, has said masturbating might strengthen the body’s natural defense forces.

  “Masturbation can produce the right environment for a strengthened immune system,” Landa told Men’s Health. 

  Men’s Health also cited a 2004 study that showed men had more white blood cells 45 minutes after they had a solo orgasm. For those who don’t know, white blood cells are part of the body’s immune system that help fight infection and other diseases. 

  According to the study by the Department of Medical Psychology, University Clinic of Essen, Germany, “these findings demonstrate that components of the innate immune system are activated by sexual arousal and orgasm.”

  Touching oneself might not prevent infection, but orgasms generally help people relax and elevate mood that is key to a healthy immune system. 

  Dr. Felice Gersh, a gynecologist and obstetrician who specializes in women’s health, said chronic masturbation might not prevent COVID, but “it’s not going to create harm.” 

  “I think the takeaway message is that there are no negatives from it,” Gersh said.

  Further research needs to be done to see if masturbation can supercharger the immune system and provide an extra layer of defenses against viruses.  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 23:30

• Taibbi: Can History Itself Violate 'Community Standards?'
  Taibbi: Can History Itself Violate ‘Community Standards?’

  Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News substack,

  Meet the Censored: Hitler

  Can history itself violate community standards?

  100 years ago last week – on July 29, 1921 – Adolph Hitler was elected leader of the Nationalist Socialist German Workers’ Party, later known as the Nazi Party. The combustible Army corporal succeeded the party’s original leader, Anton Drexler, whom Hitler originally been sent to spy on, but whose ideas he came to admire (he may even have shaved his mustache to emulate his predecessor). The 533-1 delegate vote set in motion a series of events that would dominate the next two and a half decades of world history.

  

  Hitler, pre-mustache change.

  A young Jewish Internet commentator named Manny Marotta wanted to call attention to the date, for educational purposes. Marotta has been maintaining popular accounts on both Twitter and Instagram called 100 Years Ago Live. His simple, clever, and enlightening mission is to describe history as an actual contemporary might have, in the language of modern social media tools. It’s popular, earning 26,000 followers on Twitter.

  Marotta’s accounts remind us that the past was once news, that stories we now remember as ossified, fixed narratives captured in black and white were once fresh, suspenseful events, that filled contemporaries with excitement, and uncertainty.

  Whether it’s a snapshot of a socialist congress in Lille, France that at the time might have seemed the beginning of a global Western revolution, or a cartoon showing both sides of the prohibition debate that showed how extremes of opinion dominated discourse even back then, Marotta has a nice touch for putting readers in the mood of the era, while keeping our thoughts in the present. He is very much the opposite of a Nazi or a fascist, and posts about history in the hope that people will learn from it. “I have a step-grandmother who’s a Holocaust survivor,” he says. “That’s part of the reason I started the account.”

  His Instagram post on Hitler’s ascension to the status of leader of the Nazi Party looked like this:

  

  A tweet marking the same event appeared as follows:

  After the war, disillusioned and bankrupt, the odd little Corporal worked as an intelligence agent for the government. While gathering information on the new German Workers’ Party, he grew fond of it and joined it. Today, he’s become its leader. pic.twitter.com/1NDSMdCV3U

  — 1921 Live (@100YearsAgoLive) July 29, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  There is no politicking or advocacy observable here, not as standalone posts and still less in the context of hundreds of other entries about other scenes as disparate as Thomas Edison taking a nap under a tree, a woman on Tremont Street in Boston turning heads by wearing pants, or a Soviet ship shelled in the Russian Civil War.

  Nonetheless, Instagram pulled Marotta’s post on Hitler’s election, saying it violated “community guidelines.” When he appealed the decision, the rejected him again, saying his content went against their guidelines on “violence or dangerous organizations”:

  

  Since the beginning of the “content moderation” movement, a major problem has become apparent. Human beings simply create too much content on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for other human beings to review. Machines have proven able to identify clearly inappropriate content like child pornography (though even there the algorithms occasionally stumbled, as in the case of Facebook’s removal of the famous “Running Girl” photo).

  But asking computer programs to sort out the subtleties of different types of speech — differences between commentary and advocacy, criticism and incitement, reporting and participation — has proven a disaster. A theme running through nearly all of the “Meet the Censored” articles is this problem of algorithmic censorship systematically throwing out babies with bathwater.

  Whether it’s YouTube cracking down on videographer Ford Fischer for covering events involving Holocaust deniers or white supremacists, the same platform zapping footage of the January 6th riots shot by Jon Farina of Status Coup, or Matt Orfalea being punished for violating a “criminal organizations policy” for a spoof coffee commercial involving a mass-murderer, Internet carriers have consistently shown they cannot or will not distinguish between, say, being a Nazi and criticizing one, joking about one, even warning about one.

  The frightening thing about the 100YearsAgoLive incident is that it’s not hard to see this becoming a trend, where history itself is deemed to violate common decency. The whole idea of historical education is to prevent future horrors via graphic warnings from the past. Survivors of the Holocaust have always been adamant that we must “Never Forget,” that places such as Auschwitz must never be buried or hidden away but instead displayed prominently, made into lasting cultural artifacts whose purpose is to be so conspicuous as to prevent the natural human impulse to whitewash our sadly expansive history of evil.

  In the name of combating hate speech, violence, conspiracy theory, etc., Internet platforms are removing not just advocacy, but knowledge, in a wide-ranging effort that may help the companies create a more frictionless, commercially successful product, but will impede the past from chastening the present. If the aim is preventing the spread of hateful ideas, nothing could be more counter-productive that cleaning away the record of their real-world impact.

  This 100YearsAgoLive episode seems like a silly glitch at first, a parody of Internet censorship, but it’s no joke — if we’re going to put machines in charge of cleaning our mental universes, the past is going to be one of the first casualties.

  I reached out to Marotta:

  TK: Can you tell us a little about the idea behind “100 Years Ago Live”?

  Marotta: I graduated from the University of Pittsburgh two years ago. While there, in January 2018, I became interested in WWI history and decided to create a Twitter account that would “live-tweet” the events of the final year of WWI, as if I was a reporter on the ground. While there are certainly Twitter accounts that deal with historical subjects, none put themselves in the first-person, and act as if they are experiencing history, and so I decided to do that.

  The account caught on and many people enjoyed the format. Its mission is to provide historical education in a fun and engaging way. I have had to report on some sensitive subjects. Most notably, this past May/June, there occurred the anniversary of the Tulsa Race Massacre. I took care to do thorough research on the subject and report on it in real-time with the utmost objectivity and respect for the victims. There was no censorship of this reporting.

  Yesterday’s tweet/Instagram post was the first time in which the social media platform removed the post, accusing it of promoting hate. Hitler’s rise to power is, of course, one of the hallmark historical events of the 1920s and 1930s, and I intend to cover it often. This will be difficult if I cannot post the man’s name and image in any place.

  TK: What happened yesterday?

  Marotta: The purpose of this account is to provide historical education by reporting events from 100 years ago in real time. With that said, we espouse no extremist nor hateful views, even if they were expressed 100 years ago. 100 years ago yesterday, Adolf Hitler was made Führer of the Nazi Party. We reported on this story with the same caption for both Twitter and Instagram, explaining that Hitler had become Fuhrer and a little background information. There was no hateful imagery or view espoused in reporting on this objective fact. Within 20 minutes, Instagram took down the photo of Hitler, with the note that the post promoted hate speech and extremism. Given that it was literally a photograph of Hitler with the caption that he was made Führer, I appealed the decision. They struck it down once again.

  TK: Do you think this was a human being making a decision, or a machine?

  Marotta: This appears to be a result of an algorithm failing to distinguish between images used in an educational context, and images used in a hateful context. I believe that no human reviewed my case, and that the algorithm blindly struck it down because of the word “Hitler” and a depiction of the man.

  TK: What do you think the rationale behind this kind of moderation is? If you have any idea, what’s your opinion on this brand of speech regulation?

  Marotta: I believe that Instagram does this to protect their advertising viability, and because they cannot moderate each and every case, an automatic algorithm is applied. However, this serves as a detriment to historical education. I am Jewish, and Holocaust education is vital to my beliefs system. If I cannot provide context on Hitler’s rise to power, then Holocaust education becomes difficult.

  TK: Can history violate “community guidelines”?

  Marotta: There are certain situations in which I could understand a decision like that. If you had a violent or gratuitous image from the past, I could perhaps understand… But there is no situation in which you can justify suppressing just the image of a human being who happened to be an evil dictator. That is censorship of education itself.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 23:00

• Apple Bans "Tinder For Anti-Vaxxers" On App Store
  Apple Bans “Tinder For Anti-Vaxxers” On App Store

  Apple on Saturday removed a dating app for unvaccinated people. Allegedly, the app violated Apple’s policies for COVID content. 

  Considered the “Tinder for anti-vaxxers,” Unjected is a dating-and-community app for unvaccinated people. In May, the app was launched after top dating websites, such as Bumble and Tinder, partnered with the White House and encouraged users to get vaccinated. 

  

  Apple removed the dating app from its App Store after being contacted by Bloomberg. In an email to Unjected, Apple said the app “inappropriately refers to the Covid-19 pandemic in its concept or theme.”

  Apple requires all apps related to Covid-19 provide credible health and safety information and only come from recognized entities including government organizations, health-focused non-profits and medical or educational institutions.

  Apple had originally denied Unjected during the initial review process and approved the app after it made changes to comply with Covid-19 policies, an Apple spokesperson said. Since then, “the developer has made statements externally to its users as well as updates to the app that once again bring it out of compliance,” Apple said, adding that Unjected encouraged users to avoid using certain words to avoid detection. “This is a violation of our guidelines, which make it clear: ‘If you attempt to cheat the system…your apps will be removed from the store.'”

  Unjected’s views on vaccines have also resonated on Instagram where its account has almost 25,000 followers. The growing member base defies efforts by public health officials to boost vaccination rates as the highly contagious Covid-19 delta variant spreads across the U.S. -Bloomberg

  In response to the de-platforming, one of the Unjected co-founders posted a video on Instagram saying, “apparently, we’re considered ‘too much’ for sharing our medical autonomy and freedom of choice… So, of course, Apple removed us.”

  Making matters worse, Unjected is under review at the Google Play store for posts that claim vaccines are “experimental mRNA gene modifiers,” “bioweapons” and “nano-technology microchips.” As of 1323 ET Sunday, the app is still available on Play. 

  

  “We are looking into ways to get off of Apple and Google,” she said. “But the easiest transition for us might be to make the website as great as possible since they can’t shut that down like the app.”

   

   

   

   

  View this post on Instagram

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

  A post shared by Unjected ® (@the.unjected)

  //www.instagram.com/embed.js

  Apple and Google are making it clear that anti-vax content will not be displayed on their platforms. This sort of dystopic censorship would make George Orwell turn over in his grave. 

  Remember what Silicon Valley did to conservative social media platform “Parler”? 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 22:30

• Sky News Australia Suspended By YouTube
  Sky News Australia Suspended By YouTube

  Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

  YouTube has temporarily suspended Sky News Australia from posting on its video platform, issuing a first strike to the popular conservative news channel over “COVID-19 misinformation,” according to a statement.

  

  The tech giant said its decision to issue a strike was based on local and global health authority guidance, which Sky News Australia challenged are constantly “subject to change” alongside updates to guidance from the various authorities.

  Sky News Australia added that the suspension was over “old videos” posted on its channel.

  The strike means that Sky News Australia is suspended for a week from uploading content to its 1.85 million subscribers on its YouTube account.

  “Specifically, we don’t allow content that denies the existence of COVID-19 or that encourages people to use hydroxychloroquine or ivermectin to treat or prevent the virus,” YouTube said in an early version of its statement that was sent to local media.

  “We do allow for videos that have sufficient countervailing context, which the violative videos did not provide.”

  Sky News Australia said it “expressly rejects that any host has ever denied the existence of COVID-19 as was implied, and no such videos were ever published or removed.”

  It added that the network acknowledges YouTube’s right to enforce its own policies and “looks forward to continuing to publish its popular news and analysis content back to its audience.”

  “We support broad discussion and debate on a wide range of topics and perspectives which is vital to any democracy,” a spokesperson for the network added.

  “We take our commitment to meeting editorial and community expectations seriously.”

  Local media reported the strike came into effect on July 29.

  According to YouTube’s policies, three strikes within a 90 days period will see a channel banned permanently from the platform.

  One of Sky News’ news reporters has consistently been the first to cover controversial updates on global efforts to track down the origins of COVID-19, some of which were initially dismissed as “conspiracy theories” by other outlets but have since gained wider recognition as possible explanations.

  Sky News Australia investigative reporter Sharri Markson was among the first to report on existing footage of bat research from inside the Wuhan Institute of Virology, dating back to May 2017, while members of the World Health Organizations investigative team continued to deny that live bats had ever been housed at the facility.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 22:00

• Earnings Have To Grow At 3.8% In Perpetuity For Stock Prices To Make Sense
  Earnings Have To Grow At 3.8% In Perpetuity For Stock Prices To Make Sense

  In a world where an entire generation of traders is convinced that market moves are detached from fundamentals, cash flows and actual news and only the Fed’s balance sheet matters (and they are not wrong; the Fed has indeed broken the “market” irreparably and nothing but the Fed’s QE matters) SocGen’s head of global asset allocation Alain Bokobza has taken a walk down financial memory lane to remind his readers that in the long run it’s all about earnings, and long after the Fed has destroyed the monetary system with its murderous market manipulation, it will still be about earnings. But what will be the new S&P baseline? 

  That’s the $640 trillion question, because one day traders will have to reasses the upside for stocks without the Fed, and therein lies the rub because as Bokobza has calculated, for the S&P to trade at the current level of ~4,400, corporate profits will have to rise at 3.8%… in perpetuity.

  As the SocGen strategist begins his masterclass in valuation (the way stuff like this was done before the Fed took over the entire market), equity valuation is driven by earnings growth expectations and – as such – we normally derive the fair value of equity by calculating the present value of all future dividends (we use the dividend discount model for equity valuation). The future dividends are based on assumptions as to the earnings trajectory and dividend payout ratio.

  Now normally, in SocGen’s 4-stage dividend discount model, the bank uses a combination of consensus earnings estimates, historical earnings growth and long-term nominal GDP growth rate to forecast earnings. It then uses the 10y moving average of the dividend payout ratio to forecast the dividend stream.

  

  But to perform his latest analysis, Bokobza had inverted the process and instead of using assumptions about earnings growth, he calculates the earnings growth needed for a given level of total return from equity. Specifically, he uses consensus earnings for the next year and assumes that earnings grow at a constant rate thereafter.

  Which brings us to the key question: what returns to expect from equities?

  While SocGen would have ideally wanted to use past returns as the first factor on which to anchor return expectations, it quickly encountered a problem: past returns were delivered during a very different context in terms of bond yield and growth, destroying any hope for uniformity. For example, US equity delivered a 10.7% annualized total return between January 1990 and July 2021 and the average annualized 10y rolling return is 10.9% over the period. However, the potential long-term return based on SocGen’s cost of equity approach is 5.7%. One can also use the average equity risk premium and our expectation of the 10y government bond yield to frame our expected return from equities. As per the risk premium model, the average equity risk premium for the US equity market is 4%. And since SocGen’s forecast for the 10y UST yield for 4Q21 is 2%, based on the average equity risk premium and its near-term forecast of the 10y government bond yield, investors could demand a total return of 6% from US equity. However, as SocGen’s economics team notes, the neutral rate for 10y USTs is 3.5%. This would suggest a 7.5% annualized return from the US equity over the long term.

  

  The next question is what growth is implied in current level of the US equity market.

  Here Bokobza calculates the rate of earnings growth for a given level of return from the US equity market. In the left-hand chart below, he plots the required earnings growth for different levels of return. So, if US equity market were to deliver an annualized return of 8% over the long term, the earnings CAGR required would be ~6%. In the right-hand chart below, he calculates the required earnings growth such that the long-term annualized return from equity is equal to the latest cost of equity (5.7%). In the early 1990s, US equity needed to grow earnings at around 1.5% every year to deliver a return of 5.7%. Compared to that, the earnings growth now required for a 5.7% return is 3.8%. The higher the earnings required to deliver the same level of return, the more expensive the market.

  

  Bottom line: when seeking to answer what growth is in the price in the US, the answer is that while the US equity market has historically delivered high returns, the current cost of equity (expected return) at 5.7% is near its lows. Clearly, the expected return is much lower than the realized return. However, to deliver this level of expected return, the US equity market needs to grow earnings at 3.8% perpetually.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 21:30

• When Will The COVID Revolt Come?
  When Will The COVID Revolt Come?

  Authored by Roger Kimball via AmGreatness.com,

  At some point, there will be a revolt. The longer the arbitrary insanity persists, the more violent the reaction will be…

  

  The most cheerful headline I have seen in weeks was on Glenn Reynolds’ New York Post column: “No, Karen, we’re not masking again.” I hope he is right. I do wonder, though. I have no doubt that the second part of his headline—“A winning GOP message for 2022 [and] beyond”—is correct. At least it’s correct if it is expressed as a conditional: It would be a winning strategy were it adopted. As Reynolds notes, “There is a great deal of pent-up frustration and resentment over the inconvenience, the loss of freedom and the general climate of hectoring that the government’s pandemic response has created.” Indeed. And he’s right, too, that 

  It’s irritating to be lectured by officials who claim to be smarter than you. It’s infuriating to be lectured by government officials who claim to be smarter than you—but clearly aren’t.

  The on-again/off-again claims on masks and vaccination are just part of it. Tired of masks? Get vaccinated, they told us. Now they’re saying wear a mask, even if you’ve been vaccinated and even if you’re associating with others who’ve been vaccinated.

  And there’s talk of more lockdowns, which a growing body of scientific evidence suggests were perfectly useless and downright harmful.

  As Molly Bloom exclaimed in a different context, Yes, Yes, Yes!

  But to return to the question of hope, I am reminded that hope was said by some cynics to have been the last evil in Pandora’s pithos. It seems like only yesterday—in fact, it was just this past May—that both the president and the vice-president of the United States insisted that (as Joe himself put it) “Folks, if you’re fully vaccinated—you no longer need to wear a mask.” 

  Of course, that was more than a year after “15 days to slow the spread,” Anthony Fauci’s steady stream of contradictory, though authoritatively delivered, advice, not to mention the recent advent of (cue the scary music) The Delta Variant.  

  It was the New York Post, again, that cut to the chase on the latest (unless we’re on to the epsilon variant already) with its cover of July 30. “Insanity!” read its oversized headline and below was a large grid with a tiny bit of the upper right square marked. Of the 161 million people who have been vaccinated, only 5,601 have been hospitalized with the new version of the virus. Of those, only 1,141 have died. That’s .0007 percent. (And how old, one wonders, were those who succumbed and from what comorbidities did they suffer?)

  Now it turns out that the latest CDC advice was based largely on an outbreak at Provincetown after the informal party time of “Bear Week” in early July. Andrew Sullivan treated the news with some portion of the skepticism it deserves. In fact, as another commentator pointed out, what the Provincetown outbreak really shows is that “even under perfect conditions for a superspreader event, the vaccine works spectacularly well.”

  But even to talk about studies and statistics and “expert” advice is to assume that we are talking primarily about an issue of public health. We aren’t. Consider this list from Jim Treacher: 

  1. Absolutely do not wear a mask

  2. You must, must, must wear a mask or you’re killing Grandma

  3. Don’t leave the house or you’re killing Grandma

  4. If you can’t avoid leaving the house, stay at least six feet away from any other human being you see or you’re killing Grandma

  5. Wash your hands 20 times a day

  6. Do not touch your face or anything else, ever

  7. Get vaccinated so you don’t have to wear a mask

  8. You have to wear a mask even if you’re vaccinated

  9. When the above rules change, and then change back, and then change back again, shut up about it or you’re a stupid MAGA-head

  10. Don’t forget to vote Democrat!

  Of course, the last item is more often left unspoken than it is overtly expressed, but it is a sentiment, an assumption, that infuses the whole shifting kaleidoscope of contradictory advice. Treacher is right. “This isn’t about science. It’s about control. You will do as you’re told, peasants, and your moral, ethical and intellectual betters will continue to do whatever they please.”

  I think Glenn Reynolds is correct that opposing the tyrannous spirit that stands behind the lockdowns, the mask mandates, and the smug, hectoring, politically correct demands for proof of vaccination would be a winning strategy for GOP politicians. Will they adopt it? Most will do so timorously, if at all. That’s my prediction. 

  Last year at Encounter Books, we published an admonitory book by Joel Kotkin called The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning To The Global Middle Class. Some people thought Kotkin was overstating things with his talk of an increasingly stratified society in which a tiny elite lorded it over an increasingly pauperized and disenfranchised mass. It turns out, though, that if anything Kotkin understated the trends. The weaponization of public health diktats, their enforcement by a vast and increasingly overbearing cadre of nanny-state bureaucrats, is simply the latest manifestation of the profoundly anti-democratic spirit that has taken hold in Western societies. 

  It’s all about social control, as Jim Treacher says. At some point, there will be a revolt. The longer the arbitrary insanity persists, the more violent the reaction will be. The question is whether we are at or are approaching the point of crisis. Will the voters stand for another lockdown as we approach the 2022 election? Lockdowns markedly increased the opportunities for voter fraud; 2020 showed that. That is precisely why the swamp is prepping us for another go. Let’s see if we stand by grumbling impotently or if, finally, we actually do something. I am not holding my breath. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 21:00

• 'Purge-Like Siren' Blares Near US Census Building, Keeps Residents Up At Night
  ‘Purge-Like Siren’ Blares Near US Census Building, Keeps Residents Up At Night

  “It sounds kind of like a combination of a tornado siren and a spaceship taking off, like the siren from the ‘Purge’ movies,” Suitland, Maryland, resident Scott Bovarnick told NBC4 Washington. 

  

  An unidentified siren keeps Suitland residents up “all night – every night” and makes it extremely difficult to sleep. They want the noise to stop, but no one can tell them the origin of the siren. 

  “We have a lot of young families in the neighborhood, a lot of children, and I know it’s probably keeping them up,” Bovarnick said. “A lot of my neighbors are having trouble sleeping, and it’s disturbing.”

  Residents speculate the siren could be coming from the gated Suitland Federal Center, home to the U.S. Census Bureau. 

  “I just want to know what it is, and can they turn it off because people are trying to sleep,” resident Marcus Brent said.

  NBC4 reached out to the Census Bureau and the other federal agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, about the mysterious siren. None of the agencies have yet to respond to the local news station. 

  https://nbcwashington.com/portableplayer/?CID=1:14:2753889&videoID=1928496707916&origin=nbcwashington.com&fullWidth=y

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 20:30

• 10 Republicans Back Bill Calling For Audit Of The CDC
  10 Republicans Back Bill Calling For Audit Of The CDC

  Authored by Ivan Pentchoukov via The Epoch Times,

  A group of 10 Republican senators is backing a bill that would require an audit of the decision-making and public health messaging by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

  

  The Senate bill (pdf), titled ‘Restore Public Health Institution Trust Act of 2021, would require the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to assess the CDC’s public health messaging and decision making and prepare a report on the matter.

  The bill requires the report to include a review of the data the CDC used to make its recommendations and whether the agency’s “inconsistent messaging” had an impact on the public’s trust and willingness to take the COVID-10 vaccine.

  “These guidelines, like most of the Biden Administration’s actions these days, make little sense and seem without scientific direction,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said in a statement, referring to the CDC recent reversal of masking guidance for fully vaccinated people.

  “Americans have spent the last year and a half making tremendous sacrifices to halt the virus’s spread, but they are confused and have lost trust in our institutions. The mixed messaging could also degrade trust in the efficacy of vaccines.”

  The bill would also require the GAO to determine whether outside entities, including teachers’ unions, were in a position to impact the CDC’s guidance.

  The CDC revised its mask guidance last week, telling fully vaccinated people to don masks in crowded indoor settings. The agency based the decision on a study of an outbreak in Massachusetts which found that 74 percent of the people infected had been fully vaccinated. The study also suggested that fully vaccinated people who become infected with the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, could spread the virus the same way unvaccinated people do.

  The CCP virus, commonly known as the novel coronavirus, is the pathogen that causes COVID-19.

  “The CDC’s flip flop on mask guidance sends a confusing message to Montanans and the American people, and has not been clearly justified with data,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said in a statement.

  “The CDC needs to improve its communications with the public and stop undermining vaccine confidence.”

  “Over the past year and a half, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued conflicting health guidance, at times only weeks apart, and at times without supporting clinical data,” Sen. Cythia Lummis (r-Wyo.)  said in a statement.

  “Their actions have unnecessarily divided our country, and fueled partisan conflict. The job of the CDC is to help control and prevent disease, not play politics. It’s time for oversight and reform.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 20:00

• One Bank Asks How Much Lower Stocks Would Be Without Covid
  One Bank Asks How Much Lower Stocks Would Be Without Covid

  With another round of economic lockdowns and restrictions on the immediate horizon as Joe Biden unexpectedly admitted on Friday, one bank has dared to ask where we would be without the pandemic, and correctly extrapolates that the worse it gets for the general population the better it is for markets… just in case anyone is wondering who the Biden administration is really working for.

  That said bank is Goldman Sachs is surprising: the vampire squid is not known for calling a spade a spade, especially when telling the truth could get the bank deplatformed, or worse, kicked out of the woke corporations club. Despite these risks, Goldman’s head of HF equity derivatives sales, Tony Pasquariello, focuses precisely on this “no covid” counterfactual in his latest markets and macro note, pointing out that “as a client once put it, financial markets have no moral conscience. as we sit here today, one can argue the paradox of recent COVID variants is they’ve become a net positive for certain risk assets – on the thesis that local setbacks have kept the activity meter from going into the red, allowing for a back-footed Fed and a slower but, certainly far from slow — pace of US and global growth.”

  Pasquariello then says that his sales & trading colleague Mark Wilson summarized it best, as follows: “the irony of this most recent bout of virus concern is that it actually likely exacerbates (not undermines) the durability of the medium-term growth outlook: inflation concerns have been pushed further out, central banks temptation to reduce support has been quashed, financial conditions have eased to new lows, and determination to follow through on widely heralded investment plans will have only increased.”

  To take that logic a step further, Pasquariello shares a thought provoking two-liner that he saw on Twitter…

  “imagine the counterfactual of the pandemic never happening; would the S&P 500 be 30% above its peak in February 2020 without it?”

  … and notes that despite his normally bullish instinct, readers should put him in the “no” camp:

  while the global economy had plenty of cyclical momentum coming out of 2019, in the absence of the utterly enormous policy response that COVID set off, it’s a little hard for me to think S&P would be printing 4400. here’s another approach: all else equal, without COVID, would US 10yr real yields be negative 1.17% … and, without that rate underpinning, would US equity markets be trading on multiples never sustained outside of the 1990s tech bubble?

  And just in case it’s unclear, he simplifies the quite provocative point he is trying to make:

  despite all of the deep awfulness of the pandemic, it touched off a series of events and reactions that are still playing out — and, largely to the benefit of the risk complex, with no better example than the NDX 100.

  Almost as if the covid pandemic is precisely what bull markets ordered (and according to a growing number of people that’s precisely what happened, but that’s a topic for another day)

  Taken together, the balance between a strong runway for growth (increasingly more first derivative than second) and remarkably easy financial conditions (the same statement applies here) is still healthy for risk assets over the near-term. So, if the biggest dynamics remain in favor of the bulls, the Goldman trader argues that “the main thing” is to keep your eye on the ball amidst the inevitable noise and volatility; That means: (1) be long, on a responsible and flexible risk setting, given how far we’ve come; (2) maintain a split between secular growers and cyclical plays, with a shade towards the former; (3) yes, favor the US over all other markets.

  Recapping his market sentiment, Pasquariello shares the following sentiment (first brought up by his Goldman colleague Dominic Wilson): “the environment is still one where you want to be buying dips and reducing on good news. there’s probably too much negativity around the growth outlook, and thus cyclicals. the overall balance of underlying growth and real yields is very healthy. so, stick with the game plan.”

  To dig a step deeper into the biggest question of the day, if the UK analog for how a highly vaccinated country handles the Delta variant is the best available stress test, there should be a reasonable limit to concerns even as US case growth accelerates (and, objectively, may not peak for another month).

  

  This means that we have a reference point that looks reassuring on the biggest risks as we are within 1-2 weeks of the Delta wave peaking around the globe. Pasquariello also notes that it is interesting that the bank’s pandemic basket (GSXUPAND) and back-to-office basket (GSFINOFC) outperformed the S&P this week – those are the high quality gauges to measure investor anxiety as we get into and move through August…

  We concludes with some parting observations from Pasquariello: “if you take a big step back, the underlying strength of asset markets is stunning. This, of course, includes risk assets — particularly equities and credit markets. It also extends to luxury goods, be it boats or watches or art or fine wines. It also includes the interest rate market, where persistently lower nominal yields in the face of many countervailing factors calls to mind the “conundrum” word choice of prior years. If there’s one pattern of fact that helps to rationalize all of this, it’s the simple point that there’s a ton of cash still looking for a home — again, recall our work on $5tr of excess savings globally or the rise of family offices and their considerable war chests.”

  So going back to the original question – how much has covid boosted stock returns – The Goldman traders says that while he doesn’t know how this story ends, “but apropos of nothing, if you told me in March of 2020 that I’d be typing this, there’s no way I’d believe it.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 19:30

• Higher Gas Prices Mean Higher Taxes: Illinoisans Now Pay The Nation's 2nd-Highest Gas Taxes
  Higher Gas Prices Mean Higher Taxes: Illinoisans Now Pay The Nation’s 2nd-Highest Gas Taxes

  By Ted Dabrowski of Wirepoints

  As gas prices jump in Illinois, so do the gas taxes Illinoisans must pay. Illinois is one of just four states to impose a general state sales tax on gasoline, and that’s helped push Illinois’ gas taxes to the 2nd-highest in the nation, according to the American Petroleum Institute.

  Illinoisans pay an additional 6.25% for every gallon of gas, on top of the standard excise taxes that were doubled in 2019. Hawaii, Indiana and Michigan are the only other states that apply their general sales taxes to gasoline.

  

  Just over a month ago, Wirepoints reported that Illinois gas taxes were still the nation’s 3rd-highest, a position the state has held since lawmakers hiked the excise tax in 2019. But this summer’s higher gas prices have pushed Illinois to second place as of July 1st, surpassing Pennsylvania’s own sky-high taxes by about a cent.

  Now Illinois is only behind California, whose residents pay both the highest gas prices and gas taxes in the nation. Illinoisans, meanwhile, paid the 11th-most for a gallon of gas as of July 30th, according to AAA.

  For comparison, Wisconsin and Iowa’s gas prices are about 40 cents lower than Illinois’, while Kentucky and Missouri’s prices are about 50 cents cheaper. Indiana’s prices are 30 cents lower.

  Chalk this up as another failed policy in Illinois that causes Illinoisans to cross the border to spend their money in neighboring states.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 19:00

• Key Cryptocurrency Developments And Updates From JPMorgan
  Key Cryptocurrency Developments And Updates From JPMorgan

  All those who have followed the writings of JPMorgan’s Nick Panagirtzoglou and Josh Younger, for whom no bitcoin bashing opportunity was too small or too insigificant (we too are patiently waiting for Panagirtzoglou to observe which way bitcoin’s momentum has been moving in recent weeks following the cryptocurrency’s longest winning streak since 2015, a fact he has oddly failed to discuss), may be surprised to learn recently the bank quietly launched a report for its clients looking at all the top crypto developments.

  So for those tired of listening to JPM’s conflicted musing as it tries to create a lower entry point for its prop traders, here is nothing but facts from the Crypto Weekly report at the world’s largest bank:

  • Bitcoin, Ether, Dogecoin, and other major cryptocurrencies rose sharply during the week after the market took cues from a recent job posting by Amazon seeking to hire a “Digital Currency and Blockchain Product Lead.” It sparked questions among the market participants if the move could lead to Amazon accepting cryptocurrencies as a method of payment soon. Further, the upward movement of the market was fueled by short covering as more than $950mm of crypto shorts were liquidated on Monday, the most since May 2019, as per data from bybt.com. Post the market’s sharp rally, Amazon clarified that the speculation around its specific plans for cryptocurrencies was not true and it remains focused on exploring this space. Despite Amazon’s clarification, the market remained buoyed as Bitcoin ended the week at $39.7K, up 23.2% from the prior week. Meanwhile, Ether rose 14.7% w/w to $2,314 and Dogecoin rose 7.1% in the week.
  • Coin Spotlight: Theta serves as the native token for the blockchain-driven video sharing platform of the same name. By enabling faster and cheaper transmission of high-definition streaming, the Theta network shows promise of becoming a central part of the entertainment ecosystem. Tesla revealed that it’s holding Bitcoin worth $1.31B. Moreover, it booked $23mm of impairments related to its Bitcoin holding in 2Q21 and did not buy or sell Bitcoins during the quarter.
  • Goldman Sachs filed an application to offer an ETF focused on securities of cryptocurrency-related companies with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The proposed ETF would track the Solactive Decentralized Finance and Blockchain Index.
  • Twitter’s CEO announced that Bitcoin will be a “big part” of the company’s future. He also remarked that the company would continue to look at the space and invest aggressively in it.

  

  Key Developments in the Week

  

  Key Regulatory Updates on Crypto

  

  Crypto Adoption by Non-Financial Services Companies

  

  VC Corner: Key Blockchain/Crypto VC Investments

  • Fireblocks (7/27): The blockchain infrastructure firm Fireblocks recently raised $310mm in a Series D round that valued the company at $2B. Fireblocks’ technology can implement direct custody without having to rely on third parties. Its platform has been used by over 500 institutions with more than $1T in digital assets. Its list of clients include Revolut, BlockFi, Celsius, Crypto.com, and eToro. The latest funding round was led by Sequoia Capital, Stripes, Spark Capital, Coatue, DRW Venture Capital, and SCB 10X, the venture arm of Thailand’s Siam Commercial Bank. (link)
  • Figure (7/28): Figure, a blockchain-based solution provider to the financial services industry, closed $200mm Series D round backed by Apollo Global Management, Inc., Blockchain.com, Rockaway Blockchain, HOF Capital, Endeavour Capital, National Bank Holdings, Goldentree Asset Management, and L1 Digital. This round valued the firm at $3.2B. Figure provides blockchainbased solutions for loan origination, equity management, private fund services, and payments. (link)
  • Eco (7/27): Eco, a cryoto wallet company, raised $60mm financing in a latest round led by Activant Capital, L Catterton, a16z Crypto, Lightspeed Venture Partners, LionTree Partners, and Valor Equity Partners. Eco offers an all-in-one digital wallet with rewards and no fees and has average deposits of around $6,000. Eco’s top priorities are accelerating product roadmap and scaling user base. It is looking to significantly grow its team, build up marketing, and pursue regulatory approvals while expanding its services. (link)
  • Dibbs (7/27): Fractional sports card marketplace Dibbs announced $13mm Series A funding from Foundry Group, Tusk Venture Partners, Courtside Ventures, and Founder Collective. Dibbs provides a platform for fans to trade fractions of sports cards, in real time. It assigns NFTs to physical assets that are then fractionalized on blockchains. The ownership of these cards is defined using smart contracts. Dibbs will use the incoming funds to increase its team size, add new range of products, and expand globally. (link)

  Global Crypto Market Size and Landscape

  The size of the global market increased in the past week, with the global crypto sector’s market cap rising 18.2% w/w from $1.31 trillion to $1.55 trillion as of 7/29.

  

  Currently, the top five cryptocurrencies by market cap are (1) Bitcoin, (2) Ether, (3) Tether, (4) Binance Coin, and (5) Cardano. Below we give brief explanations of each of these major cryptocurrencies

  

  d

   

   

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 18:30

• San Fran DA Chesa Boudin Stands Up For Shoplifters And Drug Dealers
  San Fran DA Chesa Boudin Stands Up For Shoplifters And Drug Dealers

  Authored by Momica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com,

  San Francisco’s broad-daylight retail heists have shocked the nation in their brazenness. They’ve triggered the closings of stores, such as Walgreens, and the shortening of hours from retail giants such as Target. Forty-four percent of city is planning to move out, with 80% citing out-of-control crime.

  

  But the shoplifters have got a defender, too — in San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin. So do the drug dealers. The only problems that Chesa sees are the victims.

  Which tells us a lot about the state of moral bankruptcy of the wokester movement, and what the New Yorker dismisses as the “backlash.”

  According to the Daily Mail, citing an interview in the New Yorker, after a viral video surfaced in June of a thief stuffing oodles of goods from a Walgreens into a trash bag and then riding his bike through the store unencumbered on the way out:

  ‘When I watch that video, I think about five questions that people are not asking that I think they should,’ Boudin told The New Yorker. 

  ‘Is he drug addicted, mentally ill, desperate? Is he part of a major retail fencing operation? 

  ‘What’s driving this behavior and is it in any way representative, because it was presented as something symptomatic?’ 

  The question that doesn’t occur to him is whether the thefts are illegal. Or whether continuous unpunished crime is seriously disruptive to any society of lawful order.

  In fact, according to the New Yorker, Boudin embraces the logic of looters from Black Lives Matter from over the summer:

  Boudin said, “If Walgreens has insurance for certain goods or they expect a certain amount of loss, if they would rather not risk lawsuits or escalation to violence—then maybe that’s something we should know about.” 

  Well, gee, if they had insurance, then of course it’s all right, right, Ches? That was what the Black Lives Matter looters were saying as they hauled out the Nike tennis shoes and large-screen TVs.

  He sounds like a sleazy defense attorney, crafting a case for a scummy defendant with nothing else for his defense than to blame the victim.

  Worse still, he does the same thing for hardened drug dealers in the country illegally:

  Greenberg showed me a video of Boudin at a town hall at which residents had asked what could be done about some drug dealers. Boudin noted, in his reply, that many of the drug dealers had been brought to the United States by human traffickers—that they were, in a sense, victims themselves. “He’s excusing the Honduran drug dealers,” Greenberg said. “Not holding them accountable greenlights.”

  You see, they had a bad childhood, so dealing drugs is therefore all right.

  The New Yorker piece is a total puff piece, giving Chesa’s point of view on several things with nothing to counter it. It describes the huge broad-daylight retail heist at Neiman-Marcus as ‘zany’ and actually kind of cute. Get a load of this:

  Earlier this month, a bystander captured the final stages of a ten-person larceny of designer handbags from Neiman Marcus. One by one, they spill out the front door, each clutching oversized bags to the chest; the final thief races out carrying half a dozen handbags, still attached to a multipronged security chain. Their movements are encumbered, zany, almost Chaplin-esque; when they exit, some look uncertain about which way to run. This is disorder without menace, but not without effect. 

  Well isn’t that charming.

  As for the Walgreens video of the shoplifter riding out:

  The video crystallizes the subversive, Banksy-ish quality of the San Francisco theft wave.

  It’s all so artsy, who couldn’t be cool with it?

  Three big points from Chesa in the interview, however, do stick out:

  One is that Chesa keeps claiming that crime in San Francisco is down, citing city statistics:

  The way the video had been presented suggested that shoplifting had become a raging problem in San Francisco, but, he pointed out, the official data showed that over-all theft was down from the previous year.

  Two is that he fails to cite the reason, even though the evidence is right in front of his eyes:

  Boudin turned to the matter of the security guard: Why, Boudin asked, had he reacted so passively?

  …here, too:

  He mentioned a fact he often cites when confronted about property crime—that the police make arrests in just two-and-a-half per cent of reported thefts. “Maybe that’s a good thing—maybe that means they’re prioritizing murders,” Boudin said.

  Might it occur to this Machiavel that these crimes are not being reported given his refusal to prosecute? If every theft is considered by the D.A. a junk case not worth prosecuting, then maybe people don’t bother reporting crimes anymore. Boudin announced early on that he would refuse to prosecute “quality of life” crimes, such as noisy hookers in the upstairs apartment and drunks peeing in doorways, a detail the New Yorker left out, along with young Chesa’s early associations with Venezuelan Marxist dictator, Hugo Chavez, a man who turned Venezuela into the mother of all crime-pit hellholes. It did, however, cite this:

  His office eliminated cash bail and announced that it would no longer use gang affiliation to seek longer sentences or bring cases in which police pulled over a car as pretext for a drug search. When the pandemic shut down San Francisco, and infections began to rise in prisons around the country, Boudin saw an opportunity for decarceration; by May, 2020, he had cut the city’s jail population from a daily average of about twelve hundred people to about seven hundred.

  Let them out, refuse to prosecute, and somehow, crime is down?

  When crime is never prosecuted, and reporting is simply futile, people don’t report crimes. Why bother? Nobody’s going to do jack.

  Third, he can’t stop blaming the victim. Get a load of his inability to use the word ‘rob’:

  Boudin said, “If your car gets broken into, you’re outraged or angry or inconvenienced or incurred an expense. If your home gets broken into, it feels much scarier.”

  Getting your car stolen with payments still due on it, and being forced to pay $600 for a police tow you didn’t ask for once the car is recovered (this happened to me in the ’90s), is merely an “inconvenience,” you see, an expense incurred, something you can put on your expense sheet or tax loss returns the way rich people do, same as Walgreens can claim insurance. You shouldn’t be upset about it. Nowhere does Boudin ever use the term ‘robbed’ or issue recognition that most people don’t have expense sheets or tax qualifications, and can only eat the loss.

  As for public sentiment turning against the current crime wave, Chesa explains that it’s all in their heads:

  He said, “From a public political standpoint, what matters more is the ups and downs and if people feel less safe. It doesn’t matter that crime is down. People feel less safe. They want to feel safe.”

  Maybe they don’t feel safe because they aren’t safe. Maybe they’ve been robbed one time too many. 

  The recall petition seems to suggest just this kind of trouble, but Boudin compares it to Trumpism, “Trump’s big lie,” as he stated at a July 9 Mission District community meeting. It’s not about crime, you see, it’s about closet-Trump people somehow living in a place like San Francisco, with anyone who doesn’t like his act rightfully name-called a Republican. In Chesa’s passive-aggressive, Ayers-like mind, that’s something that ought to guilt-trip the locals, though it may in the end annoy them.

  The New Yorker, still having Chesa’s back, calls it “backlash,” Chesa being innocent and all, with none of the public discontent having anything to do with his actions you see. Just “backlash.”

  It’s unknown whether two recall petitions against him are gathering all the required signatures. The New Yorker writer dismisses both as unlikely to succeed, but the signature-gatherers say they are making progress ahead of the August and October deadlines.

  According to the California Globe:

  “Both Newsom and Boudin had their first recall petitions filed one year after they took office, the minimum to do so in California,” said former lobbyist Harry Schultz, who has monitored and advised on recall campaigns in California since the late 90’s, in a Globe interview on Thursday. “As you mentioned, both saw support increase following huge nationwide stories that painted them negatively and decisions that proved to be very controversial. And both recall movements have been doing quite well despite being in largely Democratically held areas, Newsom having California and Boudin being in the more liberal San Francisco County.”

  “For them to face a recall in California it’s incredible, but it goes to show just how upset they’ve made people. When voters say we want someone not as extreme as you, or in Newsom’s case, a Republican, in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans four to one no less, well, they did something wrong.”

  “And now Boudin is starting to go through what Newsom did recall-wise this year. These huge spurts of funding against him are a big indicator there. I wish we had signature data, but once we have that, or at least see what the group with the August-expiring petition wound up with, we can see where we are big-picture wise when it comes to a possible Boudin recall either this year or next.”

  One can only hope that with revolting leftist who blames victims, defends shoplifters, stands up for drug dealers, abetted by a press that calls crime ‘zany,’ that San Franciscans will finally come to their senses.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 18:00

• FDA May Grant Full Approval For Pfizer Jab As Early As September
  FDA May Grant Full Approval For Pfizer Jab As Early As September

  The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may grant full approval for Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccination as early as September or October, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing FDA advisers and former officials familiar with the process.

  

  The rush for full approval – as opposed to the current emergency use authorization – comes as many schools, hospitals and employers have used full approval as a benchmark for moving forward with mandatory vaccinations.

  “We’d like to see it approved as fast as humanly possible, so we can really go back to just the more normal experience,” said Jim Malatras, chancellor of the State University of New York system, who currently cannot impose a vaccine mandate for some 400,000 students served under the system. At present, the school requires either vaccines or weekly testing.

  Three vaccines—from Pfizer Inc. and partner BioNTech SE, Moderna Inc., and Johnson & Johnson —are authorized for emergency use in the U.S. Pfizer and Moderna have filed initial paperwork for full approval. However, only Pfizer has submitted all the necessary information to the FDA, according to the companies, and analysts expect it will be the first to get the green light. Moderna says it is still completing rolling data submissions, and Johnson & Johnson says it plans to file for full approval later this year. –Wall Street Journal

  The FDA is taking an “all-hands-on-deck” approach to review Pfizer’s applicaiton for full approval “as rapidly as possible in keeping with the high-quality complete assessment that the public expects from the FDA.”

  As the Journal notes, full approval will ease restrictions on distribution and advertising, and will allow more states, schools and employers to force people to take the jab, according to attorneys and current/former FDA officials. Once full approval is granted, the vaccine would be eligible for prescriptions as booster doses by physicians.

  According to a June Kaiser Family Foundation survey, over 30% of unvaccinated Americans would be more likely to get it if the FDA grants full approval.

  “The vast difference in vaccination rates across the country tell a story about what the perceptions are about risk across the country,” said Harvard University associate professor Joseph Allen, head of the university’s Healthy Buildings program. “If you’re a company operating in all 50 states and even internationally, it’s hard for them to move on the vaccine mandate and having a full FDA approval and authorization would make that easier.”

  Pfizer says it initiated a rolling submission process in May, while Moderna did the same in June – allowing them to submit finished sections of their applications without having to wait for full completion.

  “It’s like if you said not all the Christmas presents are under the tree, but you can start unwrapping them,” said former FDA chief scientist, Dr. Jesse Goodman.

  Once a company completes its submission, the FDA has 60 days to decide whether to grant a priority review. Then, under the 1992 Prescription Drug User Fee Act, the FDA must take action on an application within six months of its submission, compared with 10 months under standard review.

  The agency earlier this month granted Pfizer priority review, and Moderna has said it would request one. AstraZeneca PLC said it would apply for full approval of its vaccine, which isn’t yet authorized for emergency use in the U.S., by the end of 2021. The U.S. has an oversupply of other vaccines, but the company says its vaccine can still play a role.

   That said, some public health experts suggest that full approval might not do much to boost vaccination numbers due to the appearance of a rushed and politicized process.

  “This sounds like an easy fix, but I think we need to understand it isn’t,” said University of Michigan epidemiology professor, Arnold Monto. “If they moved more rapidly in a complicated situation, I am afraid some people would say, ‘Why did they do it so fast? Did they really scrutinize all of the data they were supposed to?’”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 17:35

• Did China Kill SoftBank's Golden Goose
  Did China Kill SoftBank’s Golden Goose

  By Pitchbook.com,

  The Chinese tech crackdown has kicked into high gear, prompting investors to dump shares of the companies that have found themselves in Beijing’s crosshairs. The nation’s tutoring sector, which until recently had been the envy of the edtech world, is now nonprofit by government decree. That could be just the beginning. Investors are bracing for similar action against other sectors.

  * * *

  In another country, the obliteration of a promising young industry might be unprecedented. Not so in China, where a similar drama unfolded in the peer-to-peer lending market in recent years. Some of those companies also flew too close to the regulatory sun, and then fell to Earth.

  Investing in Chinese startups isn’t for the faint of heart. Few know this better than SoftBank. Its principal fortune was made on Alibaba, and it has repeatedly backed the country’s tech darlings. Two online tutoring specialists caught up in the recent crackdown, Zuoyebang and Zhangmen, were also backed by the Japanese investor.

  SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son compares his business model to the goose that laid the golden egg. In recent earnings presentations, Son has pitched the firm as a golden egg factory, positioned to take a steady stream of companies public.

  That vision has played out in China until recently, with Beike and Full Truck Alliance delivering massive IPOs in the past year.

  But in Aesop’s telling, the goose with the golden egg is a parable that warns against greed. A farmer gets rich after his goose begins to lay golden eggs. He wants to get rich faster, so he cuts open the goose to get all the eggs. The goose dies. Goodbye, golden eggs.

  Beijing believes that some corners of the tech world got greedy, and it’s wringing the neck of the proverbial goose.

  SoftBank-backed Didi Global pulled off an IPO reportedly in defiance of the government’s wishes. Now Didi is considering a return to private ownership, The Wall Street Journal reported, as it faces regulatory probes and a ban on its apps.

  ByteDance, which is said to have heeded Beijing authorities when it paused its IPO plans, is another of SoftBank’s golden eggs.

  But SoftBank is just one of a cohort of investors that have braved China’s regulatory hurdles to fund billion-dollar startups—a gambit that has paid off in many cases. Since 2018, China has given rise to 136 new unicorns, making it the second-most prolific producer of billion-dollar companies after the US, according to PitchBook data.

  Hillhouse Capital and IDG Capital are also part of a club that has long ruled the region’s tech scene. Ditto Sequoia China, which reportedly launched its first fund in 2005 and has backed tech leaders including Kuaishou, JD.com and Pinduoduo.

  As China’s stock rout shows, the immediate impact of the tech clampdown is a shift in the risk premium that investors charge to certain companies.

  Sectors that have pushed up the cost of living for Chinese consumers, such as real estate and healthcare, are seen as especially risky. This has contributed to selling pressure on newly public companies like JD Health, a unit of JD.com, and home-sale platform Beike. Businesses that align with national priorities are comparatively safe. Stocks of electric carmakers like Nio and Xpeng, for example, have risen in recent days despite the broad selloff.

  On Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission called for new disclosures from Chinese companies looking to go public in the US. Chinese companies frequently list in the US through contracts with shell companies, meaning investors don’t directly hold equity in the operating business. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said he wants companies to clearly spell out these structures as well as other risks posed by the Chinese government.

  With headwinds like these, venture capitalists will likely find fundraising harder in China. That said, firms that can demonstrate that they have a close pulse on the government’s priorities will have an easier time convincing LPs that the benefits still outweigh the risks.

  International VCs may also be tempted to look to other countries, which are increasingly producing startups of sufficient enough size to be worthy of their time. Europe’s unicorn herd is reproducing rapidly. India and Latin America have also come of age, leading investors like Sequoia, Tiger Global and SoftBank to target the regions.

  But China’s ruling party can’t simply put the genie back in the bottle, and it continues to express a desire to attract foreign capital. Startups will pivot and change business models, and the ever-growing buying power of the Chinese consumer isn’t going anywhere. Entrepreneurs will find a way to work with the government’s new rules.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 17:10

• Goldman's Top 10 Takeaways From July
  Goldman’s Top 10 Takeaways From July

  Despite Friday’s modest pullback in the market, stocks managed to close higher for a sixth consecutive month, the longest such stretch since 2018, as investors digested another slew of earnings (despite near record beat, the adverse price reaction for most companies showed that stocks had been priced to perfection, if not beyond), a continued rise in virus cases in the US, a benign Fed, and a growth outlook that has now clearly created in the post-pandemic era, and will soon require another major fiscal stimulus (and/or lockdowns) as US consumer have now burned through most of their post-covid savings.

  

  The month of July has been an active one as corporate earnings have taken a backseat to another surge in COVID cases, a policy shift from China, and a quick fade of inflation fears.

  Here, courtesy of Goldman’s Chris Hussey, are the top 10 takeaways from July:

  1. The vaccine didn’t kill the virus but it has kept people out of hospitals. The vaccine didn’t kill the virus but it has kept people out of hospitals (so far).

  

  The undercurrent of rising COVID cases and its implication for mobility, the services sector recovery, and global growth sustainability was prevalent throughout the month of July — although it did little to suppress the appetite for risk assets. As shown above, new case growth has already peaked in the UK and Spain (where the delta variant emerged in the spring) and Goldman analysis confirms that vaccinations have been a key factor that has kept hospitalizations low.

  2. Peak growth may still be ahead of us (or already occurred). As the service sector is slowed by rising cases of the virus, the remainder of the global economic recovery will be more gradual writes Daan Struyven in “Global Reopening: Slower, but Not Slow.” Notably, since the emergence of the Delta strain in early April, the gap between our 2021 global growth forecast and the median consensus forecast has narrowed from 1pp to 0.3pp, reflecting consensus upgrades and GS downgrades.  And our economists lowered our US 2H21 consumption growth forecast as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust as we had expected in “After Peak Growth: A Slightly Slower Service Sector Recovery.” We also see this sluggishness continuing into 2022 to a trend-like 1.5-2% by 2H22, a sharper deceleration than consensus expects.  The drivers: fewer people returning to work in the office and rising concerns around the Delta variant. Finally, we saw evidence of this slower growth trajectory Thursday when 2Q GDP growth came in well below expectations.

  3. China has other priorities. This month also saw China ramp up its regulatory oversight of businesses. Recent regulations have signaled that the Chineseauthorities are prioritizing social fairness and stability over the capital markets inareas that are deemed public goods or important to strategic policy goals writes Kinger Lau in “Investing under a new regulation regime” (see also Goldman Downgrades China Stocks After Clients Ask If They Are Even “Uninvestable” Any More)

  4. Corporate profitability remains robust. 2Q earnings season has been largely positive so far. The big banks posted unsurprisingly strong results. And this week, the market’s premier mega-cap Tech stocks all reported  with most posting solid results although the market reaction was not particularly positive (4 of the 6 FAAMG+T stocks are down on the week).

  5. Inflation may indeed be temporary and not 1970’s style. On the back of the 2Q21 GDP report, Goldman economists actually lowered our sequential inflation forecast for the first time in a long time as they are “seeing signs of fading inflation pressures already as the recovery ‘matures’ (see And Now The Hangover: Goldman Sees Sharp Deceleration In US Economic Growth In 2022). And indeed, core PCE inflation reported Friday came in at+0.45% for June, down from +0.54% in May. For many investors, inflation pressures likely pose a greater headwind to risk assets than rising cases of the virus, making Friday’s report a bit of a “welcome relief” according to Goldman.

  6. There’s no place like stocks. And against this mix of catalysts, the S&P 500 returned ~2.5% for the month and ~17.5% ytd (before dividends). Goldman’s David Kostin wrote in last week’s “US Weekly Kickstart” that the combination of vaccinations, equity demand from households and corporations, and attractive relative valuations will support equity inflows and prices. Goldman recommends tactical positions in virus-exposed cyclicals alongside longer-term investments in high-quality secular growth stocks.

  7. There’s no place like Treasuries. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries have settled into a new lower range around 1.25%, driven there following the Fed’s June meeting and rising market sentiment, perhaps, that the Fed will successfully suppress any long-term inflation impulses in the economy before they get out of hand.

  8. There’s no place like Commodities. July started off with an OPEC+ meeting that didn’t end but eventually the world’s biggest producers reached an agreement. And then the market sold off sharply as concerns around rising virus cases dominated sentiment. Goldman’s commodities team sees oil reaching $80/bbl in 4Q. Meanwhile, copper is up over 5% for July but and Goldman sees even more upside as China production restrictions should curtail supply without an offsetting adverse impact on demand from the virus.

  9. Credit is a bit more complicated. The current combination of tight spreads, low yields and the low level of implied volatility warrants a dose of hedges in credit portfolios writes Goldman credit strategist Lotfi Karoui in “Where We Stand in the Credit Cycle.” Corporate fundamentals are unusually strong at this point in the cycle but valuations are also far more stretched.

  10. Back to work meets back to the kitchen table. Allison Nathan highlights how a hybrid model of some days in the office and some days working from home is likelyto emerge across most office-based sectors in Friday’s Top of Mind, “The Post-Pandemic Future of Work.” Surveys currently indicate that employers are on pace to allow employees to work from home 20% of the time from now on. And interestingly, a recent survey revealed that the two biggest categories of people are those that want to come back to the office every day (30%) and those that rarely or never want to return to the office (35%).

  

  A realization that the work-adjacent economy is likely to recover at a slower pace than we originally anticipated is behind Goldman’s lower US GDP growth forecasts as well (see above).

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 16:45

• Illinois Unconcerned As Communication And 'Science' Behind COVID Policy Slip Toward Chaos
  Illinois Unconcerned As Communication And ‘Science’ Behind COVID Policy Slip Toward Chaos

  By Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

  The Illinois Department of Public health took no time at all deciding last week to say it “fully aligns” with new masking guidelines issued by the Centers for Disease Control, including universal masking in schools, regardless of vaccination status. IDHP’s announcement came only hours after the CDC announcement on Tuesday.

  If you think that means the “science” behind the changes must be settled or clear, you haven’t been paying attention. Contradictions, confusion and unanswered questions from national health experts and media followed the CDC announcement, none of which is apparently of concern to IDPH.

  This time, the criticism outside of Illinois isn’t coming just from the right. Sources ordinarily friendly to the Biden Administration and national public health officials had already started to call them out on dishonesty. Left-leaning Slate earlier in the week detailed four instances of what it thought at best have been white lies coming out of the federal government. Bret Stephens of the New York Times had done much of the same earlier in the week in a column headlined, “COVID information comes from the top, too.”

  But things really heated up after the new CDC guidelines were announced and objections mounted over the failure of the CDC to explain the science behind them. The Washington Post published a leaked internal CDC document that apparently informed the CDC’s guidelines but raised extensive doubt and confusion on a number of issues.

  Liberal Axios summarized things this way on Saturday.

  The Biden administration’s handling of the Delta surge has left Americans confused and frustrated, fueling media overreaction and political manipulation. The past year and a half have left Americans cynical about the government’s COVID response, and — in many cases — misinformed or uninformed. We’re getting fog and reversals when steady, clear-eyed, factual information is needed more than ever.

  What caused all the dispute and confusion over the past week?

  Most of the reported problem has focused on what to make of a cluster of 882 COVID cases in Provincetown, Massachusetts in which 74% of the infected people were fully vaccinated. That chapter is described in the leaked CDC document as well as a report the CDC later published.

  Three-fourths of the victims were fully vaccinated? That triggered concerns about vaccine efficacy. To what extent it should have, however, is questionable.

  Look at that published report with any empirical skepticism, and you will scratch your head. It’s anecdotal, and certainly not consistent with broader data. There was huge selection bias in the cases studied and it’s unclear how many other infections occurred in the area and whether they were vaccinated.

  Second, the report contains data on particularly high viral loads in the infected, vaccinated group, indicating that the vaccinated may be far more likely to be contagious than previously thought.

  Alarming headlines then appeared in much of the media, including the New York Times and Washington Post.

  What followed is something you certainly don’t see every day. The White House communications guy on COVID matters openly criticized both of those papers, which are ordinarily White House BFFs, for going too far. Here are his Tweets to them:

  

  Apparently, the White House wanted to scare people enough to get vaccinated, but not so much as to cause them to question the vaccine. It didn’t work.

  It sure would have been fun to see the discussions among the censors in social media over how to deal with those accusations against the NYT and Washington Post — sources the censors routinely favor. Just this past week Twitter suspended a science writer merely for posting the results of a Pfizer clinical test. Acute cognitive dissonance surely has overtaken the censors.

  The most fundamental problem, however, arose from silence – silence from both the CDC and Biden Administration on the increasingly frequent requests for them to produce the science behind masks. Many health and communication experts are frustrated.

  “The mistake is releasing the guidance without explanation,” said Vish Viswanath, a professor of health communication at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,“ quoted in the Wall Street Journal. “One of the most important principles in communicating risk in such situations is complete transparency.” Similar criticisms are collected here.

  What is the science about masks that the CDC is relying on? We indeed don’t know. Studies conflict, and I’m not about to try to sort out that conflict. The point, instead, is that the CDC and the White House should. They should be presenting a full analysis of how they interpret the conflicting studies. They haven’t done so, leaving harsher critics like Dr. Marc Siegel to say on Fox that there “is no science” behind mask mandates. In Illinois, the matter likewise goes unanswered.

  Two further, important matters haven’t gotten much media attention.

  First, many recent headlines, like this on CNN, say the CDC concluded that the new, prevalent Delta variant of the virus causes “more severe” infections than the original virus. That’s a big claim because the widespread reporting earlier had only said that Delta is more contagious, which it clearly is, but not more severe, which is presumably why deaths have not spiked up along with infections.

  What’s the evidence that Delta is “more severe”? The headlines are based only on vague information in the leaked CDC document to that effect.

  Interestingly, an initial sub-headline in a New York Times column made the claim, too, but they changed the sub-headline and still haven’t noted the change. That’s bad journalism. The initial sub-headline on the article said, “Infections in vaccinated Americans also may be as transmissible as those in unvaccinated people, the document said, and lead more often to severe illness.”

  But the body of the article claimed nothing to that effect. Whether there’s any basis for the other widespread headlines claiming “more severe” infections obviously needs discussion, which is absent so far.

  Second, there’s a real doozy in that leaked CDC document that nobody else has noticed as far as I can see.

  Their model is based on the assumption, it says, that 50% of all cases are reported. In other words, two actual cases occur for every reported case.

  What? The CDC’s own website currently says that there are 4.2 actual cases for every reported case.

  This is hugely important because it tells us how many Americans were already infected and therefore have natural immunity, which studies now consistently say is at least as robust as being vaccinated. If natural immunity is high, then we might be heading for a quick drop-off in cases just as has happened recently in the United Kingdom.

  It’s a topic that the establishment has been suppressing consistently, as we have written about often. We’ve been criticizing IDHP and the Pritzker administration on that since April 2020. It’s one of the topics that Slate says Anthony Fauci has been fibbing about.

  We’ve followed this matter closely and nobody has ever suggested that the ratio of actual to confirmed cases is as low as 2:1, as the CDC document assumes. Last November, the CDC said the ratio was 11:1, which it backed off of with no good explanation. We know that many politicians and much of the media ignore the topic of natural immunity, but is the CDC blind to it as well?

  None of these questions appears to be of importance in Illinois, so the IDHP sheepishly followed right along with the CDC’s new guidelines. New mask guidelines, that largely function as mandates, are now in place, and tougher restrictions apparently may be coming.

  Science, right?

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/01/2021 – 16:20