Today’s News 30th January 2021

  • Conservatives Must Now Draw A Line In The Sand And Stop The "Great Reset"
    Conservatives Must Now Draw A Line In The Sand And Stop The “Great Reset”

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    There are many millions of Americans today in the post-election environment that feel uneasy about the fate of the country given the rise of a Biden presidency. And though I understand why this tension exists, I want to offer a possible “silver lining”; a different way of looking at the situation:

    With Biden in the White House, there is no longer any ambiguity about what conservatives (and some of the more courageous moderates) need to do and need to accomplish. Now we know where we stand, and now the stakes are clear.

    With Trump in office, a lot of liberty minded people became a little too comfortable, to the point that they were inactive. They actually believed the system could be repaired and corruption ended from within, and without much effort on our part beyond our votes. Trump made many conservatives lazy.

    Then there was the Q-anon-sense floating around on the web which also misled some freedom activists into thinking that people much higher placed or “smarter” than us were fighting the good fight behind the scenes and that the globalists would be swept up in a grand 4D chess maneuver. This was a fantasy; it was never going to happen. Finally, everyone knows this and we can get on with the business of fighting the real battles ahead.

    I think we are reaching a stage in the conflict between freedom advocates and collectivist tyrants when many illusions are going to melt away, and all we will be left with is cold hard reality. Now is the time when we find out who is going to stand their ground and fight for what they believe in, and who is going to cower and submit just to save their own skin. Now is the time when we find out who has balls.

    The last four years plus the election of 2020 have revealed that political solutions are out the window. A lot of conservatives should have known better, but maybe it takes a perceived disaster to shock some people out of their waking dreams. Elections, voting, potential third parties; it’s all Kabuki theater. It’s all a facade to keep us docile and under control.

    The liberty movement cannot revolve around a single political figure. We cannot bottleneck out efforts into the hands of one man or one political party. The fight is up to us – each of us as individuals. It was ALWAYS up to us.

    A different form of organization needs to happen if Americans are going to protect our freedoms; a grassroots approach from the ground up rather than the top down. There will of course be people who stand out as teachers and pioneers, those that lead by example. But overall, the movement will not be acting on orders from on high. Rather, it will be acting according to self motivation. The liberty movement is not driven by personalities, but by shared principles which take on a life of their own.

    I’m not worried about Biden. In fact, his presence may be the best thing to happen to conservative unity in well over a decade. The only thing I worry about, as noted, is who is going to stand their ground, and who is going to give in?

    Biden may also be a wake up call for any moderate democrats out there who thought that by voting for a hair-sniffing corporate puppet they might put an end to the division and civil unrest in the nation. I think they will discover that Joe will attract even MORE civil unrest. He may even trigger more looting and rioting by Antifa and BLM during his administration than Trump did, by the simple fact these insane people will assume that Biden will be malleable and easier to exploit.

    Biden himself is not all that important; he is nothing more than a foil for bigger events and a proxy for more nefarious people. His presence signals that the “Great Reset” agenda is fully greenlit. This agenda has a pretty obvious set of goals, many of them openly admitted to by the World Economic Forum, and some of them strongly implied by the extreme political left and the media. They include:

    1) Perpetual pandemic lockdowns and economic controls until the population submits to medical tyranny.

    2) Medical passports and contact tracing as a part of everyday life.

    3) The censorship and de-platforming of all voices that oppose the agenda.

    4) Greatly reduced economic activity in the name of stopping “climate change”.

    5) Greatly increased poverty and the loss of private property.

    6) The introduction of “Universal Basic Income” in which the government becomes the all-powerful welfare provider and nursemaid for a generation of dependent and desperate people.

    7) A cashless society and digital currency system where privacy in trade is completely erased.

    8) creation of a “shared economy” in which no one will own anything and independent production is outlawed.

    9) The deletion of national borders and the end of sovereignty and self-determination.

    10) The centralization of global political power into the hands of a select few elitists.

    Now, you would think that most sensible people would be opposed to such a dystopian agenda. It would inevitably lead to mass death in economic terms, as well as war. Unless you are a psychopath that gets a vicarious thrill from the brutal oppression of millions of people, or you are a globalist that stands to gain immense power, there is nothing about the Reset that benefits you.

    That said, there will still be millions of useful idiots that support totalitarian policies, and they will act to enforce them. Some of them will be convinced that they are serving the “greater good”, and others will think that they can “earn a place at the table” if they lick the boots of tyrants long enough. Bottom line? It’s not just the globalists we need to worry about, it is also the contingent of zombies they have duped or bribed into serving the Reset.

    The information war is about to take a backseat and a new fight is about to begin. But how will it start?

    I believe the first test for conservatives will be Biden’s pandemic response. The Reset agenda and the pandemic are closely intertwined. Do not be misled by calls from Democrats to reopen the economy; there are strings attached.

    When New York Governor Andrew Cuomo stated that the state needed to reopen, or there would be “nothing left”, he also consistently hinted that vaccination numbers needed to improve. There are two big lies involved in this narrative – The first is that the vaccination rollout has failed on a technical level.

    They want us to believe that only around 60% of the first 2 million vaccine doses have been administered because the state and hospitals failed to get them to citizens fast enough. The truth is, as we’ve seen in numerous polls of Americans and medical staff, millions of people DO NOT WANT to take the vaccine. The situation in New York must be shocking to establishment elites; it’s one of the most leftists states in the US and yet they can’t seem to trick enough people into taking the shot.

    The same is true across the country, and it’s not because of bureaucratic failure, it is a propaganda failure.

    Second, Cuomo’s statements hint that though lockdowns are destroying the economy, vaccine saturation is paramount. The message is this – “Take the vaccine, or the economy will crash.” The pandemic response is a carrot and stick approach: The lockdowns are the stick, and the reopenings are the carrot.

    Of course, even if most people get vaccinated and submit to medical passports and contact tracing like good little slaves, this does not mean life will go back to normal. On the contrary, things will get much worse.

    As I have noted in past articles like ‘Waves Of Mutilation: Medical Tyranny And The Cashless Society’, the globalists have admitted that the covid mandates and controls are going to be in place for many years, perhaps forever. Elites at MIT and the Imperial College Of London have written extensively about a strategy I call “Wave Theory”, in which governments constantly batter the public with waves of lockdowns followed by brief windows of partial openings and limited freedom.

    The reopenings are a trick, a way to release public tension like a steam valve and make everyone think that the crisis is almost over. Then, the draconian mandates are brought back once again. This will never end. The only way to stop it is to remove the globalists from power and crush the Reset agenda.

    A new narrative is already being injected into the mainstream media hinting that even vaccinations will not lead to freedom.

    Anthony Fauci and others have argued that those who are vaccinated still need to follow lockdown mandates and wear masks. This policy completely ignores the scientific FACT that the death rate of covid is only 0.26% for anyone outside of a nursing home. It ignores the fact that masks have been consistently proven to do nothing to stop the spread of the virus. It ignores the fact that hospitals across the US have remained mostly empty, with only 15% of capacity in use during Covid . And, it ignores the fact that the vaccines are barely tested experimental cocktails that even the former VP of Pfizer has warned might cause dangerous autoimmune reactions and infertility.

    On top of this, more and more stories about “covid mutations” are hitting the news wire. They are supposedly more infectious and more deadly than the original (which runs contrary to the natural evolution of the vast majority of viruses), and the mutation in South Africa is also “possibly” unaffected by existing vaccines. There is no concrete proof to support any of the claims, but I think you see where all of this is headed, right?

    My guess is that in about two months the CDC and WHO will announce a new global outbreak of a more deadly strain of Covid. They will say the current vaccines are ineffective, and that lockdowns must continue. Hundreds of millions of people around the world are savvy to the old covid-19 scheme, so the elites are going to introduce covid-20, and covid-21, and covid-22, etc.

    Biden will call for Level 4 lockdowns similar to those implemented in Europe and Australia, and this is where conservatives must draw a line in the sand and announce that we are not subject to unconstitutional restrictions, that we are breaking free. This will be our first major test.

    It’s not enough to simply say “I won’t submit” when the consequences are minimal. One must be willing to fight back even when the consequences are dire. Being willing to lose everything for what you believe, being willing to possibly die for your values and principles means you are no longer a spectator in history, but an actor that can affect the future. Anything less is not enough to win the war that is coming.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/30/2021 – 00:00

  • California's DMV Has Issued Permits For Baidu To Begin Testing Driverless Vehicles
    California’s DMV Has Issued Permits For Baidu To Begin Testing Driverless Vehicles

    While Tesla allows any old random driver to act as a human beta tester for its “full self driving” (whatever that even means anymore), the California Department of Motor Vehicles has officially issued an actual permit to Baidu USA to begin testing driverless vehicles on public roads in Sunnyvale, California. 

    The agency made the announcement in a press release issued on Wednesday, stating that “while Baidu has had state authority to test autonomous vehicles with safety drivers since 2016, the new permit allows the company to test three autonomous vehicles without a driver behind the wheel on specified streets within Sunnyvale, located in Santa Clara County.”

    According to the release, Baidu’s vehicles “are designed to operate on roads with posted speed limits not exceeding 45 miles per hour.” Testing is allowed to be done at all times during day and night, but won’t take place during “heavy fog or rain”.

    The release also notes what companies need in order to qualify for such driverless testing permits. 

    • Providing evidence of insurance or a bond equal to $5 million.
    • Verifying vehicles are capable of operating without a driver, meet federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards or have an exemption from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and is a SAE Level 4 or 5 vehicle.
    • Confirming vehicles have been tested under controlled conditions that simulate the planned area of operation.
    • Notifying local governments of planned testing in the area.
    • Developing a Law Enforcement Interaction Plan that provides information to law enforcement and other first responders on how to interact with test vehicles.
    • Continuously monitoring the status of test vehicles.
    • Training remote operators on the technology being tested.

    “Driverless testing permit holders must also report to the DMV any collisions involving a driverless test vehicle within 10 days and submit an annual report of disengagements,” the release states. According to the DMV site, as of January 27, 2021, they have issued Autonomous Vehicle Driverless Testing Permits to just six entities. Noticeably, Tesla is absent from the list, which includes Autox Technologies, Baidu, Cruise, Nuro, Waymo and Zoox.

    The CA Department of Motor Vehicles developed its Autonomous Vehicle Tester Program in 2014 “to allow manufacturers to test autonomous vehicles with a human in the driver seat.” In 2018,  the agency established the Autonomous Vehicle Driverless Tester Program for manufacturers to test their technology without a driver.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 23:40

  • Texas Governor Orders Agencies To Sue Biden Admin For Climate Actions That "Kill Jobs"
    Texas Governor Orders Agencies To Sue Biden Admin For Climate Actions That “Kill Jobs”

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

    Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott on Thursday vowed to oppose what he called the Biden administration’s bid to destroy jobs with its volley of actions targeting the oil and gas industry.

    Abbott signed an executive order during a press conference in Odessa on Thursday, which directed all state agencies to sue the Biden administration for any federal actions that threaten the Lone Star state’s energy sector.

    “Texas is going to protect the oil and gas industry from any type of hostile attack launched from Washington D.C.,” Abbott said.

    “President Biden’s embrace of the green new deal is a job killer in Texas. It also takes a wrecking ball to the energy independence that Texas has been able to provide to the United States of America and Texas is not going to stand idly by and watch the Biden administration kill jobs in Midland, in Odessa or any other place across the entire region,” he added.

    Abbott’s order (pdf) came on the heels of a series of executive actions taken by President Joe Biden in the name of fighting “climate change.” These include the decision to revoke authorization for the Keystone pipeline, the decision to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord, and a moratorium on issuing new oil and gas leases on federal land and waters.

    While Biden’s actions have drawn fire from Republicans, industry groups, and even some Democrats, Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry said at a Wednesday press briefing at the White House that Biden wants to make sure workers in the energy industry “have better choices” in jobs that “pay better” and are “cleaner,” giving the example of being a solar power technician instead of being a miner. Kerry also claimed that it’s a false notion that “dealing with climate” comes at the expense of energy workers, adding that there is “a lot of money to be made” in the creation of new “healthier” jobs in sectors such as green hydrogen, geothermal heat, and other renewables.

    Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, on Jan. 27, 2021. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Thursday criticized the Biden administration’s actions on energy policy that he collectively dubbed a “piecemeal green new deal.”

    “There’s nothing green about a tsunami of pink slips for American workers, or carting Canadian crude around in trucks and trains instead of a pipeline,” McConnell said on the Senate floor. “This piecemeal green new deal is the wrong prescription: wrong for the environment, wrong for national security, and most of all for the working Americans who will soon be formerly working Americans if this keeps up.”

    “Wilfully throwing our own people out of work, reducing our domestic energy security, raising costs and prices for working families—all for no meaningful impact on global temperatures,” McConnell added.

    McConnell also cited a study (pdf) by energy consulting firm OnLocation, which concluded that Biden’s oil and gas lease ban would mean the loss of nearly 1 million jobs by 2022.

    “The decision on federal lands will leave us down nearly one million American jobs by next year alone,” McConnell said on the Senate floor. “It’s a heck of a way to kick off a presidency.”

    In this image from video, then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) speaks as the Senate reconvenes on Jan. 6, 2021. (Senate Television via AP)

    But Texas is “prepared to fight back,” Abbott said, with his executive order directing every state agency to, “use all lawful powers and tools to challenge any federal action that threatens the continued strength and vitality of the energy industry. Each state agency should work to identify potential litigation, notice and comment opportunities, and any other means of preventing federal overreach within the law.”

    Abbott also said he would support legislation that would prohibit cities from banning natural gas appliances, an action he said was recently taken in San Francisco.

    “In Texas, we will not let cities use political correctness to dictate what energy source you use,” he said.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 23:20

  • Amid "Shortage", Ecuador Police Bust Clinic Giving 1000s Of Fake COVID Vaccines
    Amid “Shortage”, Ecuador Police Bust Clinic Giving 1000s Of Fake COVID Vaccines

    One of the most shocking consequences of the “shortage” of coronavirus vaccines has just been documented in Quito, Ecuador (the country’s capital) where a “fake” doctor has just been busted selling a fake COVID vaccine at an unlicensed clinic, according to local media reports cited by RT.

    The doctor was reportedly charging $15-per-dose before the clinic was raided and shut down by Quito police and other federal authorities. Officially, the business was a “spa and slimming massage salon”, but it offered unlicensed medical services on the backend. With the COVID-19 outbreak ravaging the country, the establishment, which was located in the southern part of Quito, decided to add a “vaccine” against the disease to its list of treatments and sold an estimated 70K doses before getting busted.

    News of the raid was published by the twitter feed of local police.

    Exactly what recipients were injected with has yet to be determined by lab tests.

    Patients were offered a three-dose course, with two of the injections supposedly giving full immunity. The first “dose” cost $15, while the follow-up chaser doses (which reportedly included cleansing drugs and multivitamins) cost another $100.

    Ecuador has approved two vaccines – Pfizer-BioNTech’s and AstraZeneca’s – for its national immunization against Covid-19, with two more products being considered. The government plans to roll out the effort in March, promising to vaccinate nine million adults for free by the end of the year.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 23:00

  • Would You Be Considered A Domestic Terrorist Under This New Bill?
    Would You Be Considered A Domestic Terrorist Under This New Bill?

    Authored by Robert Wheeler via The Organic Prepper blog,

    After 9/11, the entire country collectively lost its mind in the throes of fear. During that time, all civil and Constitutional rights were shredded and replaced with the pages of The USA PATRIOT Act.

    Almost 20 years later, the U.S. has again lost its collective mind, this time in fear of a “virus” and it’s “super mutations” and a “riot” at the capitol. A lot of people called this and to the surprise of very few, much like after 9/11, Americans are watching what remains of their civil liberties be replaced with a new bill.

    The Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2021

    The DTPA is essentially the criminalization of speech, expression, and thought. It takes cancel culture a step further and all but outlaws unpopular opinions. This act will empower intelligence, law enforcement, and even military wings of the American ruling class to crack down on individuals adhering to certain belief systems and ideologies.

    According to MI Congressman Fred Upton: 

    “The attack on the U.S. Capitol earlier this month was the latest example of domestic terrorism, but the threat of domestic terrorism remains very real. We cannot turn a blind eye to it,” Upton said. “The Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act will equip our law enforcement leaders with the tools needed to help keep our homes, families, and communities across the country safe.

    Congressman Upton’s website gives the following information on DTPA:

    The Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2021 would strengthen the federal government’s efforts to prevent, report on, respond to, and investigate acts of domestic terrorism by authorizing offices dedicated to combating this threat; requiring these offices to regularly assess this threat; and providing training and resources to assist state, local, and tribal law enforcement in addressing it.

    DTPA would authorize three offices, one each within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of Justice (DOJ), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), to monitor, investigate, and prosecute cases of domestic terrorism. The bill also requires these offices to provide Congress with joint, biannual reports assessing the state of domestic terrorism threats, with a specific focus on white supremacists. Based on the data collected, DTPA requires these offices to focus their resources on the most significant threats.

    DTPA also codifies the Domestic Terrorism Executive Committee, which would coordinate with United States Attorneys and other public safety officials to promote information sharing and ensure an effective, responsive, and organized joint effort to combat domestic terrorism. The legislation requires DOJ, FBI, and DHS to provide training and resources to assist state, local, and tribal law enforcement agencies in understanding, detecting, deterring, and investigating acts of domestic terrorism and white supremacy. Finally, DTPA directs DHS, DOJ, FBI, and the Department of Defense to establish an interagency task force to combat white supremacist infiltration of the uniformed services and federal law enforcement.

    Those who read the bill aren’t so gung ho to shred the Constitution

    Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard has some serious reservations. In a recent interview on Fox News Primetime, Gabbard stated that the bill effectively criminalizes half of the country. (Emphasis ours)

    “It’s so dangerous as you guys have been talking about, this is an issue that all Democrats, Republicans, independents, Libertarians should be extremely concerned about, especially because we don’t have to guess about where this goes or how this ends,” Gabbard said.

    She continued: “When you have people like former CIA Director John Brennan openly talking about how he’s spoken with or heard from appointees and nominees in the Biden administration who are already starting to look across our country for these types of movements similar to the insurgencies they’ve seen overseas, that in his words, he says make up this unholy alliance of religious extremists, racists, bigots, he lists a few others and at the end, even libertarians.”

    Gabbard, stating her concern about how the government will define what qualities they are searching for in potential threats to the country, went on to ask:

    “What characteristics are we looking for as we are building this profile of a potential extremist, what are we talking about? Religious extremists, are we talking about Christians, evangelical Christians, what is a religious extremist? Is it somebody who is pro-life? Where do you take this”

    Tulsi said the bill would create a dangerous undermining of our civil liberties and freedoms in our Constitution. She also stated the DPTA essentially targets nearly half of the United States. 

    “You start looking at obviously, have to be a white person, obviously likely male, libertarians, anyone who loves freedom, liberty, maybe has an American flag outside their house, or people who, you know, attended a Trump rally,” Gabbard said.

    Tulsi Gabbard is not the only one to criticize the legislation

    Even the ACLU, one of the weakest organizations on civil liberties in the United States, has spoken out. While the ACLU was only concerned with how the bill would affect minorities or “brown people,” the organization stated that the legislation, while set forth under the guise of countering white supremacy, would eventually be used against non-white people.

    The ACLU’s statement is true.

    As with similar bills submitted under the guise of “protecting” Americans against outside threats, this bill will inevitably expand further. The stated goals of the DPTA are far-reaching and frightening enough. It would amount to an official declaration of the end to Free Speech.

    Soon there will be no rights left for Americans

    In the last twenty years, Americans have lost their 4th Amendment rights, and now they are losing their 1st. All that remains is the 2nd Amendment, and both the ruling class and increasing numbers of the American people know it.

    Dark days are ahead.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 22:40

  • Antifa Attacks Portland ICE Building, Hurls Mortars And Rocks At Feds 
    Antifa Attacks Portland ICE Building, Hurls Mortars And Rocks At Feds 

    A large group of Antifa terrorists rioted at the ICE building in South Portland this week. 

    Mainstream media went radio silent on the attack when “60 Antifa terrorists burned American flags and threw projectiles and mortar explosives at federal police officers,” according to Federal Inquirer

    Despite fleeing the US because of Antifa death threats, Conservative journalist Andy Ngo posted a series of videos Thursday showing the clash between Antifa terrorists and federal police. 

    Portland Police Bureau told local news KATU that “the group began blocking traffic by moving construction cones and barriers into the street just before 10:00 p.m.” Wednesday night. Thirty minutes later, police said the group lit a dumpster on fire, and that was when federal officers exited the ICE building and began to repel protesters. 

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    It took a little over two hours for the Feds to disperse the crowd. They said crowd control munitions were used, and one person was taken into custody. 

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    Ngo posted a picture of the Antifa terrorist who was arrested. 

    Meanwhile, the Biden administration calls for “unity” and continues to label Trump supporters “domestic terrorists” while ignoring Antifa attacks on federal agents, law enforcement personnel, private and government property. 

    In response to the latest rioting in Portland, Mayor of Sandy, Oregon Stan Pulliam, a Republican, told Fox News that the chaos in Portland is what happens when there’s a push to defund police.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 22:20

  • Former Navy SEAL: The Miseducation Of Antony Blinken
    Former Navy SEAL: The Miseducation Of Antony Blinken

    Authored by Kenny MacDonald via The Libertarian Institute, 

    On January 19th, the US Senate held confirmation hearings for Joe Biden’s Secretary of State nominee Antony Blinken. Blinken has a reputation on both sides of the aisle for being exceptionally qualified for the job of America’s top diplomat, which is surprising considering he was on the wrong side of every major foreign policy blunder of the last 20 yearsIraq, Libya, and Syria.

    When Senator Rand Paul asked Antony Blinken what lessons he has learned from his disastrous foreign policy record in Libya and Syria, Blinken replied that after “some hard thinking” he’s proud that he has done “everything we possibly can to make sure that diplomacy is the first answer, not the last answer, and that war and conflict is our last resort.”

    Of course war is the last resort. Even the most hawkish war criminals would agree that war is the last resort. But the question is, war is the last resort to accomplish what? If war is the last resort to get a country to fully capitulate to Washington’s demands then eventually the US will be at war with everyone. To Blinken, war as the last resort can only be understood in the same way a mugger considers shooting his victim as a last resort to stealing their wallet.

    Via the AP

    Blinken displayed his hubris a few minutes later when he said, “The door should remain open” for Georgia to join NATO under the justification of curbing Russian aggression.

    Rand Paul informed Blinken, “This would be adding Georgia, that’s occupied [by Russia], to NATO. Under Article 5, then we would go to war.”

    Senator Paul is right. According to Washington, Russia has been occupying 20 percent of Georgia since 2008. Under the principle of collective defense in Article 5 of NATO, the US would be obligated to treat Russia’s occupation of the country of Georgia the same way the US would treat a Russian occupation of the US state of Georgia. That sounds like a recipe for war. But don’t worry, peaceniks, Antony Blinken has assured us that war is the last resort!

    Blinken’s framing of the issue exposes his disingenuous approach. Russian aggression is a term used by Washington insiders to describe a Russian reaction to western aggression. Blinken knows that the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia was not Russian aggression, he calls it that because it suits his agenda and the American press is dependably ignorant enough to not ask questions.

    In the 2008 war, Georgia was the aggressor against the South Ossetians, a people who are ethnically distinct from Georgians, and who have never—not even for one day—considered themselves a part of Georgia. The Ossetians have a history of Russian partiality; they were among the first ethnic groups in the region to join the Russian Empire in the 19th century and the USSR in the 1920s. Today, ethnic Ossetians straddle both sides of the current Russian border, and they are more aligned with the Russian government than with the Georgian government.

    When Georgia gained sovereignty from the former Soviet Union in 1991, South Ossetia declared its independence. In response, Georgian forces invaded South Ossetia, initiating an armed conflict that killed more than 2,000 people. In 1992, a ceasefire agreement was signed in Sochi between Georgia, Russia and South Ossetia, which created a tripartite peacekeeping force led by Russia. Although the international community never acknowledged South Ossetia’s independence, they have enjoyed political autonomy since the 1992 Sochi agreement.

    The Sochi agreement held up until Georgia’s ultra-nationalist President Mikheil Saakashvili came to power in the 2003 western-backed bloodless “Rose Revolution” coup-d’etat. The pro-western President Saakashvili advocated joining the EU and NATO, and insisted on asserting Georgian rule over South Ossetia. U.S. President George Bush supported the new Georgian president’s effort to bring Georgia into NATO, which for Russia would mean bringing a hostile military up to its border. In 2006, President Saakashvili offered South Ossetia autonomy in exchange for a political settlement with Georgia. A referendum was held, and the South Ossetian people overwhelmingly reaffirmed their desire for independence from Georgia.

    In August, 2008, After exchanging artillery fire with South Ossetia, Georgia invaded South Ossetia’s capital city of Tskhinvali, killing 1,400 civilians and 18 Russian peacekeepers. Georgia’s attack triggered a Russian invasion into South Ossetia and Abkhazia (another breakaway region) to restore stability and protect peacekeeping forces.

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    Russia is by no means innocent—they used disproportionate force attacking targets inside Georgia—but only a Russophobic shill would conclude that this war was somehow caused by Russian aggression. The idea that Russia had no business intervening is laughable. Under the 1992 Sochi agreement, Russia took charge of a peacekeeping coalition to help prevent exactly the scenario that happened in the summer of 2008.

    If George Bush had succeeded in bringing Georgia into NATO, the United States may have been dragged into war with Russia in 2008. Antony Blinken claims that NATO membership deters Russian aggression, but does he really believe that Russia would have been deterred from intervening to protect its own peacekeeping force? Does Blinken believe that Georgia—backed by the U.S. military—would have acted more cautiously in South Ossetia, or is it more likely they would have been bolder?

    It’s undeniable that it is in Russia’s best interest to have pro-Russian countries on its borders. But pretending as if Russia is going to march into Tbilisi and reabsorb the entire country of Georgia into Russia is a level of paranoia that should disqualify anyone from having an opinion on the subject. The military conflict in Georgia is about the two breakaway regions and their right to self determination. Russia’s self interest happens to align with the wishes of the people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. By supporting Georgia, America—the champion of democracy and self determination—has adopted the position that South Ossetians didn’t really mean to repeatedly choose independence when given the option. This is a situation where America’s professed values are diametrically opposed to its policy of countering Russian influence everywhere on the map.

    Antony Blinken should pause to consider if America’s policy objectives are worth fighting a war for. Is it worth confronting Russia in South Ossetia? Was it worth confronting Russia over Crimea and the Donbas in Ukraine? Is it a good idea to withdraw from the INF Nuclear Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty? Should we have spent the last 30 years marching NATO—a military alliance hostile to Russia—right up to the doorsteps of Russia? Is any of this really making us safer?

    Blinken has bought into his own propaganda. To Blinken, regardless of the stubborn details of history, every conflict on Russia’s border is simply Russian aggression. Washington’s solution is the expansion of NATO, which Russia describes as “NATO encirclement.” This is an unacceptable military threat to Russia, who has a deep distrust of western intentions due to a long history of western invasions into Russia. Antony Blinken still lives in a bipolar world in which the United States and Russia are existential threats to each other’s existence. Every conflict and every alliance is only viewed through the lens of the New Cold War crusade against Russia. This maniacal crusade could thrust America in the unthinkable abyss of nuclear war.

    Rand Paul got his answer, Antony Blinken learned nothing from all his mistakes! The danger isn’t merely resorting to war too early, the danger is in sticking our noses in conflicts that we have no business being in. War should be the last resort to defending America’s people and it’s homeland from foreign invasion; it should not be the last resort to enforcing America’s utopian vision on the world, and it certainly shouldn’t be the last resort to prevent an ethnic group in the South Caucasus—that almost no American has ever heard of—from the right to self-determination.

    Kenny MacDonald is a former Navy SEAL and Afghanistan War veteran. He is currently pursuing a bachelor’s degree in history. Youtube ChannelMediumFacebook.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 22:00

  • Manhattan Retail Rents Plunge In "Prime" Shopping Areas 
    Manhattan Retail Rents Plunge In “Prime” Shopping Areas 

    Manhattan’s “prime” retail real estate remained under pressure in the fourth quarter as the once too prominent shopping areas have transformed into “ghost towns.”

    According to Bloomberg, retail rents across every major shopping district in the borough are plunging as a revitalization of the local economy continues to stall. 

    Mayor DeBlasio’s solution to mitigate the virus spread has been restricting or banning indoor capacity at restaurants and limit mass gathering. More government regulation has hindered the local recovery. 

    As if brick and mortar retail didn’t have enough problems to deal with considering the massive push towards e-commerce during the pandemic, Soho retail rents in the fourth quarter dropped 22% to $290 a square foot over the same period last year, according to a report by brokerage Cushman & Wakefield Plc.

    Rents in Soho have been sliding for four years. They may eventually pressure commercial real estate firms who own buildings as higher vacancies and lower rents could reduce rental income, making it harder for them to service mortgages. 

    Lower Fifth Avenue retail rents in the quarter dropped 20%. Rents in upscale Madison Avenue declined 16%.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Considering the pandemic, strict social distancing measures from the city government, and the explosion in e-commerce, it is nearly impossible for most to open retail stores and do business in once prominent areas of downtown Manhattan.

    Cushman & Wakefield said the supply of retail space in most areas is surging. Availability rates in Fifth Avenue, Soho, and Meatpacking are about 24%. 

    From 57th to 72nd streets, Madison Avenue had a shocking 40% availability rate for the second straight quarter. 

    Herald Square/West 34th Street was the only area in the borough that experienced a decline in available retail space. 

    With the retail bubble now popped, there were more than 9,300 retail department store closures across the US in 2020. 

    The retail space remains oversupplied with stores, and the consolidation of stores countrywide could continue for the next couple of years. 

    To sum up, the new normal in Manhattan will be high retail vacancies and lower rents with a local economy unable to recovery this year. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 21:40

  • The Democratization / Demonization Of Speculation
    The Democratization / Demonization Of Speculation

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    How do you unrig a speculative rigged market? You don’t. It simply crashes into a putrid sinkhole.

    Gamed speculation–using knowledge of how markets can be pushed to profit those doing the pushing–has long been decried. Declaring that the unproductive profiteering of greedy speculators will be the death of the Republic goes back to Rome, and in American history, to Alexander Hamilton’s battle in 1791 to pay the speculators who had bought up the new nation’s war bonds for pennies on the dollar full value plus interest.

    Gamed speculation–and the cheery presumption that there will always be a liquid market of chumps willing to buy insiders’ pumped-up balloons–inflate and pop bubbles, with devastating consequences not just for the broken speculators but for conventional investors who naively believed “the market” was in fact a market (smirk) rather than a mechanism to enrich those who have the capital and knowledge to engineer profiteering behind the curtain. (Please see the still from The Wizard of Oz below.)

    An interesting intersection of dynamics has led to the curtain being ripped aside by the democratized speculations of WallStreetBets, a crowdsourced pool of speculative capital which shares many characteristics with online gaming and live-action role playing (LARP) only the gains and losses are in real dollars (the fortunes made and lost in GameStop (GME) are very real indeed).

    Wall Street and the politicos who profiteer as insiders are naturally horrified by both developments:

    1. That the curtain of how super-wealthy insiders and their only the wealthy can play entities such as hedge funds have manipulated markets behind the curtain for decades, leading to an unprecedented economic inequality in which the top 10% skim fully 97% of all income from capital. To have their game hijacked by a bunch of young gamers is beyond appalling to the New Nobility, who firmly believe their insider manipulations were the exclusive preserve of their crowd in the castle.

    (Recall that ours is a thoroughly Neofeudal Economy, with a New Nobility of financiers, Big Tech monopolists, et al. who own the vast majority of capital and political power, and a restive mass of commoners holding either no capital or phantom capital that will dissipate into thin air in the next financial upheaval.

    2. Not only are the mechanisms of manipulation now visible to all, an unruly rabble of commoners has ganged together to play their own version of the speculative game of skimming staggering profits from a rigged “market.” How dare they!

    No wonder the skimmers and scammers and political refuse that passes for “leadership” in today’s America are shocked, shocked by the open and openly gleeful democratized speculation that (like cryptocurrencies) is enriching the wrong people, i.e. commoners. It’s as if the debt-serfs, tax donkeys and decapitalized peasants stormed the castle at night and broke open the jewel box and the stash of champagne, and proceeded to swing from the chandeliers, mocking the self-serving privileged who’d been pillaging the nation for decades via their legalized looting.

    Mark, Jesse and I discuss these developments in our latest Salon podcast:

    AxisOfEasy Salon #36: Democratizing Stonk Market Manipulation (1:03 hrs)

    Where do these developments lead? An interesting question. Unfortunately for Wall Street insiders and their political-scum apologists, we can’t unsee the levers behind the curtain. The insiders can’t put their legalized looting genie back in the bottle, for everyone has seen how “markets” are manipulated to enrich those pulling the levers.

    If the political-scum apologists want to end democratized speculation, they’re going to face blowback when they try to protect the rights of the New Nobility to continue manipulating markets to their exclusive advantage. The rage against the New Nobility’s lock on capital, rigged markets and 97% of all the income generated by capital has been simmering to a boil, and political-scum apologists had best tread carefully.

    How do you unrig a rigged speculative market? You don’t. It simply crashes into a putrid sinkhole. Phantom capital vanishes into the thin air from whence it came. Ponder the similarities of the Cisco Systems speculative frenzy in 2000 and Tesla’s speculative frenzy in 2020.

    Dang, the levers of the machinery behind the curtain just broke.

    *  *  *

    If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

    My recent books:

    A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

    Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

    Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

    The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

    Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).

     

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 21:20

  • Global Government 'Trust Bubble' Bursts In 2020, Led By China & UK
    Global Government ‘Trust Bubble’ Bursts In 2020, Led By China & UK

    Joe Biden has moved into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and one of his administration’s most difficult tasks is going to be the restoration of trust in the American government. Even though the foundations of U.S. democracy withstood the events of January 06, cracks are still in place, as shown by continuing suspicion and accusations on Capitol Hill. Along with distrust inside government, Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that the nation is divided with a recent survey finding that a mere 42 percent of the U.S. public trusted the government in late 2020.

    The findings come from Edelman Research’s latest Trust Barometer which polled 33,000 people in 28 countries about their trust in various institutions between October 19 and November 18, 2020. Globally, ‘trust’ collapsed in the second half of 2020…

    However, despite the turbulence of 2020, a year where hundreds of thousands of Americans died from Covid-19, the research found that trust in U.S. government actually grew three percent.

    Infographic: Where Trust In Government Is Highest and Lowest | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Still, the U.S. figure is far lower than many other countries with trust in government in Australia and Canada standing at 61 percent and 59 percent, respectively. It is also slightly lower than the UK where the government’s Brexit strategy has proven highly controversial with public approval of the institution 45 percent in late 2020.

    Some of the highest levels of trust in government were seen in Asia where 82 percent of Chinese respondents trusted the institution, along with 79 percent of people polled in India. Japan was among the lowest at 37 percent while the figure was lower still in Spain and Russia at just 34 percent.

    South Korea, UK, and China saw the biggest collapses in trust of government in 2020…

    Ironically, “business” is now the only institution that is seen as both ‘competent’ and ‘ethical’, with government seen as neither…

    The stakes are high for 2021 and improvement will likely hinge on how the pandemic plays out, particularly when it comes to the efficiency of vaccination programs and getting economies back on track without compromising public safety.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 21:00

  • Texas University Tells Students To Wear Masks During Masturbation
    Texas University Tells Students To Wear Masks During Masturbation

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    A Texas University suggested in a series of tweets that students should wear face masks during masturbation, even quipping that they should ‘mask-urbate’.

    The University of North Texas’s Student Health and Wellness Center fired out the tweets, which have since been deleted because they offered advice contrary to that of the school’s guidelines on coronavirus, according to Campus Reform.

    One of the tweets declared “Mask-urbate?! Read below to learn more,” with an accompanying image suggesting that any students with COVID symptoms should “skip sex and stay in.”

    An infographic emblazoned with the university logo read “Mask-urbate! Use face coverings during mutual masturbation to reduce your risk,” while also suggesting students “be creative with physical barriers & sexual positions to prevent close face-to-face contact.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    A further tweet declared that students should wear masks during sex, “pick a large, well-ventilated space” for getting it on, “avoid kissing” and “wash your hands before and after.”

    The tweets were reportedly removed because the University doesn’t even want students to go near each other.

    “Face coverings are not a substitute for appropriate social distancing,” the school guidelines state.

    As we previously reported, The University of Georgia published a similar guide on its health website that advised students to consider “wearing a face mask during sex.”

    This madness isn’t just being touted around universities, with the BBC in the UK advising the public to wear masks if they want to have sex with each other.

    “Your best sexual partner during the Covid-19 pandemic is yourself,” the article further notes, encouraging people to engage in “masturbation, sex toys or having phone or online sex,” rather than the real thing.

    Several US universities have threatened to completely cut off basic services, including internet access for students if they do not fully comply with all COVID restrictions on campus.

    As we have previously reported, colleges are being used as testing grounds for technology to enforce draconian distancing, mask and lockdown measures:

    Universities are also threatening to suspend students who dare to leave pre-determined ‘bubble’ areas around campuses, or visit non “approved businesses” without permission.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 20:40

  • "People Are Starting To Scramble": 2020's Newbie Traders Face A Lesson In Capital Gains Taxes
    “People Are Starting To Scramble”: 2020’s Newbie Traders Face A Lesson In Capital Gains Taxes

    It was all fun and games for Robinhood traders during 2020 – the gains seemed to be unlimited after the market crash in March, anyone could trade stock options, FinTwit was abuzz. Many new traders cut their teeth and learned how to trade for the first time in 2020.

    But now, as tax day 2021 rolls around, newbie traders are learning another lesson: how capital gains taxes work, and why “what you make” isn’t always “what you make”. 

    And the due diligence traders are interested in doing on paying taxes seems to be far less than the due diligence many are doing by reading r/WallStreetBets. One 19 year old trader, who made $5,000 last year, told Bloomberg: “I read up on it and everything that I saw didn’t lead me to believe that I had to pay, however I was at the grocery store or something so I didn’t dive into it as much as I needed to.”

    Retail traders now account for 20% of all stock volume in the U.S., according to Bloomberg. Many of those traders simply don’t yet understand the tax implications of trading.

    20 year old trader Mac Coughlin said: “That’s a whole other process that I need to learn. Quite honestly I have no idea about any of it. I took a small loss over the whole course of the year so in terms of filing and tax returns I do not really understand the process.”

    Ryan Marshall, a financial planner and partner at ELA Financial Group, said: “The biggest misconception most investors have is that they won’t be taxed as long as they don’t withdraw the money.”

    Most traders are learning for the first time that short-term capital gains are taxed at higher rates than long-term capital gains, which take affect after a year and a day. As Bloomberg points out, married couples who earn up to $80,000 pay nothing on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends. Most other middle class income groups pay 15% and the top rate is 23.8% for long term gains. 

    Matthew Savello, a certified public accountant, said: “Now that it’s actually coming time to file, people are starting to scramble a little bit. One of the key things is you have to budget it. Probably most of the people I talked with actually have losses, there’s not many who can actually pull this off successfully. And for the ones who do, budgeting has become quite an issue.”

    Jordan Kendall, a partner at Marcum LLP, said: “It’s to your benefit to pay it off as quickly as you can. Many taxpayers don’t realize that if you’re delinquent in tax filings and you owe the government money, they could withhold your passport and stop you from traveling internationally. They could make your life difficult.”

    For reference, here is a look at what 2020 short term capital gains taxes look like:

    And 2020 long term capital gains taxes:

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 20:20

  • Lawmaker Urges NY AG, DOJ To Subpoena Cuomo's Office Over Handling Of Pandemic
    Lawmaker Urges NY AG, DOJ To Subpoena Cuomo’s Office Over Handling Of Pandemic

    Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times,

    Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is demanding answers after a new report revealed New York state health officials underreported COVID-19-related nursing home deaths by as much as 50 percent in some places.

    The New York House member characterized the revelations as “a massive corruption and coverup scandal at the highest level of New York State Government.” She blamed the Governor, the Secretary to the Governor, the New York State Health Commissioner, and the Governor’s staff for the worrisome findings, which also revealed that some nursing homes did not comply with infection control protocols and had placed residents at increased risk of harm.

    “Every New Yorker deserves transparency, accountability, and answers regarding the orchestration of this illegal coverup,” Stefanik said in a statement.

    Stefanik is now urging New York Attorney General Letitia James and the Justice Department to issue subpoenas to the administration of New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, for documentation and communications related to his handling of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic.

    The 76-page report (pdf) was released on Jan. 28 following an investigation into nursing homes’ responses during the pandemic over allegations of patient neglect and other conduct. Preliminary data from the investigation suggests that many nursing home residents had died from COVID-19, the disease caused by the CCP Virus, in the hospital after they were transferred from their nursing homes.

    These cases were not reflected in the state’s Department of Health’s (DOH) published total nursing home death data. The attorney general office compared data from 62 nursing homes, which represents 10 percent of the total facilities in New York, reported to its office, to data reported to DOH.

    The investigation also found that some nursing homes underreported their resident deaths occurring in nursing homes to DOH.

    “The OAG found that nursing home resident deaths appear to be undercounted by DOH by approximately 50 percent,” the attorney general’s office release stated.

    The COVID-related nursing home deaths have been a focal point for Cuomo’s handling of the pandemic. He has repeatedly pushed back against assertions that his policy played any role in the deaths. The report is expected to trigger more scrutiny over Cuomo’s policies and handling of nursing homes amid new cases of the virus across the state and country.

    “While we cannot bring back the individuals we lost to this crisis, this report seeks to offer transparency that the public deserves and to spur increased action to protect our most vulnerable residents,” James said in a statement on Thursday.

    Many critics have pointed to Cuomo’s decision to order recovering nursing home patients to be returned to the facilities to free up hospital bed space for the increased number of nursing home deaths. Cuomo—who has touted his administration’s response to the pandemic—has often rejected the suggestions that his policy led to an increase in deaths.

    His office did not respond to an earlier request for comment by The Epoch Times about the report.

    Earlier this month, Cuomo and the state were accused of “illegally hiding basic information about a public health crisis,” by not disclosing the total of coronavirus deaths in New York nursing homes for another two months, until March 22.

    The DOH had postponed Empire Center’s August request for information under the Freedom of Information Law three times. This prompted a lawsuit, with the organization arguing the department had “no valid reason for withholding the requested data.”

    The department had told the organization that it could not immediately turn over the documents because “a diligent search for responsive documents is still being conducted.”

    According to state data as of this week, approximately 70 percent of New York state’s roughly 35,000 deaths from the CCP virus were among people aged 70 or older.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 20:00

  • Biden's Defense Secretary Puts The Brakes On Trump's Germany Troop Draw Down
    Biden’s Defense Secretary Puts The Brakes On Trump’s Germany Troop Draw Down

    Perhaps as expected, it didn’t take long for the Biden administration to begin putting the brakes on Trump’s previously ordered troop draw downs which occurred in the last two months of his presidency, particularly in Germany, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

    The defense analysis and news site Military.com is reporting that new defense secretary under the Biden administration Lloyd Austin is reviewing the withdrawal of 12,000 US troops from Germany:

    Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has voiced his commitment to shoring up close ties with NATO ally Germany that were strained under the Trump administration, and suggested that the plan to withdraw 12,000 U.S. troops from the country is open to discussion.

    Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, via AP

    The prior Trump plan for to cut nearly one-third of total American military personnel from the country was predictably fought from Congressional corners known for being hawkish on Russia, with even some American and European security officials having called the move a “gift to Putin”.

    Later in December the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act attempted to override the draw down order, and according to German officials early this year there’s yet to be significant movement of troops from the country.

    Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this week held phone calls with NATO allied officials in Europe. The Military.com report continues:

    In a phone call to his German counterpart, Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Austin “expressed his gratitude to Germany for continuing to serve as a great host for U.S. forces, and expressed his desire for a continued dialogue on U.S. force posture in Germany,” according to a Pentagon readout of the call released Wednesday.

    He also sought “to reinforce the value the United States places on the bilateral defense relationship with one of our closest NATO Allies,” the readout from Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby states.

    By all appearances the some 36,000 total American troops in Germany have gone nowhere despite the plan initiated under Esper. 

    Recent polling of the German public also suggests half or more want to see US troops gone, after being there since World War II.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As the report concludes of Defense Secretary Austin’s phone call, it is “the latest sign of the Biden administration’s intent to reverse or water down the policies of former President Donald Trump, who repeatedly questioned NATO’s worth to the U.S. and rattled allies with demands for more defense spending.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 19:40

  • Why Mitch McConnell Backed Away From Trying To Convict Trump
    Why Mitch McConnell Backed Away From Trying To Convict Trump

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    Mitch McConnell really wanted to convict Donald Trump and ban him from ever running for office again, but he was forced to back off.  In fact, he just voted for a motion that declared that convicting Trump at this point would be unconstitutional.  That represents a stunning reversal by McConnell, because earlier this month he was telling other Republicans that he wanted Trump gone.  Putting the pieces together, it appears that McConnell really did try to get to 67 votes so that Trump would be convicted, but political reality forced him to back down in a major way.  Now a weakened McConnell will try to move forward as the minority leader in the Senate, and the future of his political career is very much in doubt.

    Once the riot at the U.S. Capitol happened on January 6th, McConnell decided that he was done with Trump and never wanted to speak to him again

    Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he never wants to speak to President Donald Trump again following a violent insurrection at the US Capitol on Wednesday, The Washington Post reported.

    But of course at that point they had already not spoken for quite some time.

    According to McConnell, the last time the two spoke was all the way back on December 15th

    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday that he hasn’t spoken to former President Trump since the middle of December, confirming news reports that the Senate GOP leader has cut off personal contact with the former president.

    “The last time I spoke with him was the day after I declared that Biden had obviously won the election after the Electoral College [voted on] Dec. 14. It would have been Dec. 15,” McConnell told reporters.

    Not content to keep his feud with Trump private, McConnell took it to the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives.

    When McConnell delivered a speech in which he directly blamed the chaos at the Capitol on Trump, it made headlines all over the nation…

    “The mob was fed lies,” McConnell told the chamber, which two weeks earlier had been evacuated as rioters invaded the building.

    “They were provoked by the president and other powerful people.”

    Once it became clear that the House was going to impeach Trump, rumors were running rampant that McConnell was going to back a move to convict Trump in the Senate.

    For example, the following comes from a New York Times article entitled “McConnell Privately Backs Impeachment as House Moves to Charge Trump”

    Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, has told associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses and that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach him, believing that it will make it easier to purge him from the party, according to people familiar with his thinking.

    And CNN reported that a Republican member of Congress actually told them that “Mitch said to me he wants Trump gone”…

    The lobbying started in the House after the January 6 attack on the Capitol and in the days leading up to impeachment. But it’s now more focused on Sen. Mitch McConnell, the powerful minority leader who has signaled he may support convicting Trump.

    “Mitch said to me he wants Trump gone,” one Republican member of Congress told CNN. “It is in his political interest to have him gone. It is in the GOP interest to have him gone. The question is, do we get there?”

    So why did Mitch McConnell change his mind so dramatically?

    There are three main reasons.

    First of all, it became clear that there wouldn’t be a way to get to 67 votes.  As I warned yesterday, that would probably be enough to force McConnell and his allies to back down.

    Voting to convict Trump without succeeding would be political suicide for McConnell and his allies and they know it.

    Secondly, Trump was threatening to start his own political party if he was convicted.

    The “Patriot Party” would have split the votes of conservatives in every state, and it would have made it absolutely impossible for Republicans to take back control of the House or the Senate in 2022.

    In fact, splitting conservatives between the Republican Party and the Patriot Party would have ensured one party rule in Washington for the foreseeable future.

    As much as McConnell would like to get rid of Trump permanently, regaining the majority in the Senate is much more important to him.

    Thirdly, other Republicans in the Senate were threatening to boot McConnell from his position as minority leader if he voted to convict Trump

    “No, no, no,” Sen. Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican and Trump ally, told CNN when asked if he could support McConnell if he voted to convict Trump, calling such a vote a “dangerous precedent” and adding: “I don’t even think we should be having a trial.”

    “If you’re wanting to erase Donald Trump from the party, you’re going to get erased,” Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said on Fox News Wednesday. “This idea of moving forward without Donald Trump in the Republican Party is a disaster for the Republican Party.”

    McConnell is a political survivor, and he could see the writing on the wall.

    So he backed off.

    But if he could figure out a way to get rid of Trump without any consequences, he would pull the trigger in a nanosecond.

    Unfortunately for McConnell, now that everyone knows what he tried to do, he has been greatly weakened politically.

    He may survive for a while, but the days remaining in his political career are definitely numbered.

    If the Republicans are not able to regain control of the Senate in 2022, I have a feeling that Senate Republicans may decide that it is time for a new standard bearer.

    Of course a lot could still happen between now and then, and my regular readers already know that I am not optimistic about America’s future at all.

    The rot and decay in Washington is simply a reflection of the rot and decay that is growing throughout our society as a whole.

    Our country is literally falling apart all around us, and decades of incredibly foolish decisions by our leaders are now catching up with us in a major way.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 19:20

  • Bolsonaro Warns COVID May Last Forever, Isolation "Leads Nowhere" 
    Bolsonaro Warns COVID May Last Forever, Isolation “Leads Nowhere” 

    President Jair Bolsonaro warned this week that COVID-19 is going nowhere and urged local leaders to abandon strict social distancing measures and lockdowns, arguing that Brazil’s people need to start learning how to live with the virus, according to Bloomberg

    “This issue of Covid will continue for life,” Bolsonaro said during a weekly webcast on social media, adding that social distancing measures will “lead nowhere.”

    Bolsonaro, 65, has already been infected with the virus and has held a pretty tough stance against social distancing. 

    When it comes to vaccines, the Brazilian president, a longtime China skeptic, thanked Beijing earlier this week for approving Sinovac Biotech’s COVID-19 vaccine for export. Bolsonaro said he would not take any COVID-19 shot. 

    Critics have said Bolsonaro’s laissez-faire approach to managing the crisis has resulted in a massive death toll, second to the US. Hospitals are overrun with virus patients, which has pressured the president’s popularity in recent months. 

    A slow rollout has also pressured Bolsonaro’s popularity, with the country only receiving two million doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines. 

    Meanwhile, Brazil’s massive fiscal stimulus to support the economy from cratering even further has reached its limits, hence why Bolsonaro is calling for some sense of normalcy. At the same time, people learn to live with the virus. 

    At this point, who knows how long the virus will be sticking around, but in Bolsonaro’s defense, there’s mounting evidence that continues to how mandatory stay-at-home orders issued by the government don’t work. 

    However, maybe Bolsonaro is right by telling his fellow compatriots to go out there and live their lives. After all, a total implosion of the. Brazilian economy wouldn’t exactly be great for the people’s health. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 19:00

  • Governor Cuomo's Pitiful Tax Hike Ultimatum Will Punish New York
    Governor Cuomo’s Pitiful Tax Hike Ultimatum Will Punish New York

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

    New York’s Governor says bail him out or he’ll be forced to punish New Yorkers with tax hikes.

    Biden Elected, Begging Starts

    It did not take long for the begging to start. 

    New York Governor Andrew Cuomo launched the effort with a Tax Hike Ultimatum

    “If the federal government doesn’t fund state and local governments, it’s going to hurt all New Yorkers,” Mr. Cuomo warned Tuesday while proposing to raise the state’s top income tax rate in New York City to 14.7%. This would be the highest rate in the country, at least until New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy makes a competing bid.

    Mr. Cuomo’s ultimatum goes like this: Democrats in Washington must deliver $15 billion in budget relief pronto or he will raise the state’s top tax rate to 10.82% from 8.82% on income over $100 million and create four new tax brackets on income of more than $5 million. New York City has a top rate of 3.88%, though Mayor Bill de Blasio wants to raise it too.

    The Governor says the higher rates would be temporary, but New Yorkers know better than to believe him after he broke his promise to let the millionaire’s tax that Albany imposed during the 2009 recession expire. Mr. Cuomo is also begging Democrats in Congress to lift the $10,000 state-and-local tax (SALT) deduction limit to mitigate his tax hike.

    Add these tax increases to Medicare taxes, and some New Yorkers would pay a marginal tax rate as high as 64% under Mr. Cuomo’s plan. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis may need to set up temporary asylum camps in Palm Beach for the waves of New York tax refugees.

    Pitiful, Just Pitiful

    Gratefully, I expect Cuomo’s pitiful plea to go straight to the ash pile of requests not delivered where it belongs.

    Why?

    There is not a single Republican senator who will vote to bail out New York, New, Jersey, Illinois or other corrupt states with union pension woes of their own making.

    In Search of a Senator

    Given the 50-50 Senate split, it only takes one Democrat to stand up to such fiscally mad proposals.

    The most likely candidate is West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. 

    Politico notes Manchin emphatic he ‘will not vote’ to kill the filibuster

    Also note that Manchin is in a Bipartisan group of senators pushes back on Biden Covid plan.

    The bipartisan group of 16 senators held a call with Brian Deese, director of the White House National Economic Council, Jeff Zients, Biden’s coronavirus coordinator, and Louisa Terrell, head of White House legislative affairs on Sunday afternoon — the first of what’s sure to be many conversations between centrists and the Biden administration.

    The 75-minute call, set up by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), is one of the first big calls the Biden administration has held as it works to build cross-party support for the $1.9 trillion plan. Senators asked for more data on how the White House filled out its plan.

    Susan Collins (R-Maine) pressed the Biden officials on why families making $300,000 would be eligible and urged a focus on lower-income workers.

    Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) also questioned the price tag: “This isn’t monopoly money,” as he put it.

    Manchin is a Democrat senator in the most trump-friendly state. His statements suggest that he will not stray too far fiscally. 

    King caucuses with the Democrats and if either one of them says “no” to state bailouts, they won’t happen.

    There might be others. In general, Biden will have a difficult time.  

    Go Ahead Cuomo, Go Ahead

    So, governor Cuomo go ahead. Raise those taxes. 

    I am curious to see how big the New York exodus will be.  And I always need some new things to write about.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 18:40

  • Google Deletes Nearly 100,000 One-Star Robinhood Reviews Amid GME Scandal
    Google Deletes Nearly 100,000 One-Star Robinhood Reviews Amid GME Scandal

    Google has been actively removing a flood of negative reviews for the Robinhood app from the Google Play Store, according to The Verge, which reports that “Robinhood users organized campaigns to give the app a one-star review on Google’s Play Store and Apple’s App Store,” and were able to ‘review-bomb’ it down to a one-star rating over the company’s decision to restrict purchases of GameStop, AMC and other stocks amid a crowdsourced campaign to trigger short squeezes.

    Robinhood’s restrictions were widely seen as a handout to billionaire short-sellers that threw retail traders under the bus.

    Robinhood came under intense scrutiny on Thursday, after the stock trading app announced it would block purchases of GameStop, AMC, and other stocks made popular by the r/WallStreetBets subreddit, and some users have already replaced their deleted one-star reviews with new ones to make their anger heard. –The Verge

    The website 9TO5Google captured the carnage when the app had just under 275,000:

    And here’s what it looks like now, per The Verge:

    Robinhood’s Play Store rating later on Thursday.

    According to the report, the mass censorship is within Google’s ‘purview,’ as their policies “explicitly prohibit reviews intended to manipulate an app’s rating.”

    How do they know this is an organized campaign and not 100,000 individually pissed off retail customers? Google claims to have a system which “combines human intelligence with machine learning to detect and enforce policy violations in ratings and reviews.”

    Google says it specifically took action on reviews that it felt confident violated those policies, the company tells The Verge. Google says companies do not have the ability to delete reviews themselves.

    On Apple’s App Store, Robinhood has a 4.7 rating, and we didn’t see any reviews newer than Wednesday. However, popular apps like TikTok, Uno, and Genshin Impact also didn’t have reviews from any later than Wednesday when we checked. –The Verge

    Meanwhile, Robinhood is only allowing “limited buys” of various stocks, while at least one lawsuit has been filed against the company for “removing Gamestop from its trading platform” earlier this week.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 18:20

  • Is The Establishment Still Terrified Of Trump?
    Is The Establishment Still Terrified Of Trump?

    Authored by Pat Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    As soon as the Senate received the lone article of impeachment accusing President Donald Trump of “incitement of insurrection” in the Jan. 6 mob assault on the Capitol, Rand Paul rose to object.

    The Senate, he said, has no right to try a private citizen, which Trump now is. Thus, what we are about to do is flatly unconstitutional.

    Forty-five of 50 Republican members agreed with Paul’s motion.

    “This vote indicates it’s over. The trial is all over,” said Paul.

    “If you voted that (the Senate trial is) … unconstitutional, how in the world would you ever vote to convict somebody for this?”

    Consistency says you would not.

    Susan Collins of Maine, one of five Republicans who voted against Paul’s motion, agreed that the vote portends the final vote on conviction.

    “Do the math,” Collins said. “It’s extraordinarily unlikely the president will be convicted.”

    Rand Paul may have just derailed the second impeachment of Donald Trump.

    Chief Justice John Roberts, the constitutional officer designated to preside over Senate impeachment trials, has said he will not preside over this latest trial of the ex-president. With Roberts seeing no constitutional duty, and declining the honor, his replacement as the presiding officer will be Patrick Leahy of Vermont, the longest-serving Democrat and the president pro tempore of the Senate.

    But Leahy is viscerally hostile to Trump and one of a Democratic bloc that voted twice last January to convict Trump of high crimes and misdemeanors. How will it look to the world if this partisan is installed as both judge and juror at the trial of his political enemy?

    Welcome to Zimbabwe.

    Does the liberal establishment, now back in power and controlling the House, Senate and presidency, not see how this is all going to look in the history books, generations hence?

    Blinded by hatred of Trump, enraged by the mob that stormed the Capitol, Nancy Pelosi’s House, in a rush to judgment, without hearing a single Trump witness and without letting his lawyer offer a defense, impeached, i.e., indicted, Donald Trump for “incitement of insurrection.”

    But how could Trump have incited the riot and the attack on the Capitol when the mob swept up the stairs before Trump finished speaking a mile away?

    And he would end his rally remarks by urging the crowd to march to the Hill “peacefully and patriotically.”

    We have subsequently learned that plans and plots were being hatched days before the assault on the Capitol began.

    Was the Trump White House, or Trump, privy to those plots?

    In August 1974, it was a near certainty that the House would vote to impeach Richard Nixon. But after the president resigned, the House did not impeach, and Ford pardoned Nixon so the country could move on.

    The rage of the establishment at being deprived of its revenge against Nixon who had turned the Silent Majority against it, not unlike today, knew no bounds. And, though history has vindicated Ford, his pardon of Nixon precipitated a plunge in his poll numbers.

    Half a century on, however, history says Ford did the right thing.

    Why then are the Democrats continuing with this exercise in vengeance?

    They want Trump convicted so that he will be prohibited from ever again holding public office. The establishment fears that Trump could make a comeback, win the Republican primaries in 2024, become the nominee, and return in triumph as president.

    They are determined to abort that possibility. Many openly admit it.

    What does that say about the liberal establishment’s love of democracy when they would disqualify, in advance, the largest vote-getter their opposition party ever had, out of fear he might come back to win the presidency as he did in 2016?

    “Trust the people!” was a campaign slogan made famous by George Wallace. Our national establishment prattles endlessly on about its devotion to democracy, but it does not trust the people.

    But the establishment is going to pay a price for trying to squeeze the last ounces of juice out of this rotting fruit. President Joe Biden’s call to unity are being drowned out by Democratic howls for a trial, conviction and banishment.

    This effort to convict and disqualify Trump from running again tells us more about the people behind it than it does about Trump.

    For the odds are slim at best that Trump would or could, at 78, win the nomination and the presidency a second time, as Grover Cleveland did in 1892.

    Yet, a fearful establishment does not want to take the chance.

    For all the babbling about “democracy” we have heard in recent days, the establishment wants to eliminate the possibility that the people could rise up, and, horror of horrors, elect Trump once more.

    You can smell the fear.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 18:00

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Today’s News 29th January 2021

  • Putin: World Risks "Fight Of All Against All" In "Grim Dystopia" Amid Growing Crises
    Putin: World Risks “Fight Of All Against All” In “Grim Dystopia” Amid Growing Crises

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    Russian leader Vladimir Putin warned that society risks a return to world war if there’s no international effort to ease existing global tensions and imbalances.

    Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s virtual Davos Agenda conference on Jan. 27, he offered a grim prediction and noted that the current era shows parallels to the 1920s and 1930s before the “catastrophic World War II.”

    “Nowadays, such a heated conflict is not possible, I hope,” Putin said. “Because it will mean the end of our civilization.”

    “But I’d like the reiterate that the situation might develop unpredictably and uncontrollably if we sit on our hands doing nothing to avoid it. There’s a possibility that we might experience an actual collapse in global development that might result in a fight of all against all.”

    Such a prospect, he said, would result in a “grim dystopia.”

    Wealth inequality, political polarization, and international tensions will exacerbate the problem, he said, and on top of that, the CCP virus pandemic is placing even more strain on society.

    “The coronavirus pandemic has become a major challenge to mankind, and it has accelerated structural changes, the preconditions for which were already in place,” he said.

    “We have every reason to believe that the tensions might be aggravated even further.

    “International institutions are weakening, regional conflicts are multiplying, the global security system is degrading.”

    He called for an increase in dialogue between different nations and groups to avoid a possible worldwide conflict.

    “We need [to] ensure development following a different path—one that is positive, balanced, and constructive,” he said.

    Russia currently finds itself amid growing internal tensions after Moscow arrested Putin critic Alexei Navalny after he returned to Russia from Germany.

    During the Davos address, Putin seemingly made reference to sanctions and embargoes; several countries have placed sanctions on Russia.

    “The use of trade barriers, illegitimate sanctions, restrictions in the financial, technological and information spheres—such a game without rules is dramatically increasing the risks of the unilateral use of military force, which is very dangerous,” Putin said.

    Putin also faces an uncertain relationship with U.S. President Joe Biden, whom he spoke with earlier this week.

    After their first phone call, Putin formally submitted a bill for the Russian parliament to extend the New START nuclear treaty with the United States by five years, according to Russian media.

    “The presidents expressed satisfaction following today’s exchange of diplomatic notes on an agreement to extend the New START Treaty,” Putin’s office announced after his call with Biden, TASS reported.

    “International topics included the United States’ unilateral withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty, problems of keeping in place the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear program, Ukrainian settlement, as well as Russia’s initiative to call a summit of the United Nations Security Council permanent members,” the Kremlin said.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 02:00

  • Newspeak In The 21st Century: How To Become A Model Citizen In The New Era Of Domestic Warfare
    Newspeak In The 21st Century: How To Become A Model Citizen In The New Era Of Domestic Warfare

    Authored by Cynthia Chung via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    War will continue under the Old Cold War doctrine. War will always be present, and yet will never be seen by the majority of our citizens…

    With President Biden’s inauguration many feel that they can finally breathe a deep sigh of relief. At last sanity has been restored and we can all go back to our predictable lives knowing that the future can only get better during these next four years.

    Well…not quite.

    There still remains the problem that everybody may not be on board with the progressive changes that Biden’s Administration plans to push through. This, of course, is wholly unacceptable.

    Disagreement has become an extremely sensitive issue lately; it was once thought that debate was an essential component to a strong and healthy democracy, however, we are now told that it is extremely dangerous, in fact, it may soon be categorised as a form of domestic terrorism.

    As early as mid-Nov 2020, Biden was already discussing the need to pass further laws against domestic terrorism. This is interesting since under the 2001 Patriot Act (which was meant to be a temporary enforcement in reaction to 9/11, however, is still in place 19 years later), domestic terrorism is already defined as;

    “activities that (A) involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the U.S. or of any state; (B) appear to be intended (i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (ii) to influence the policy of government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and (C) occur primarily within the territorial jurisdiction of the U.S.”

    So, the question begs, what else needs to be added to the Patriot Act, which was recognised at the time of its enforcement as something that should only be temporary since it was understood that it infringed upon civil liberties? Come to think of it, why is the Patriot Act still in place, which allows for the indefinite continuation of human rights violations such as warrantless wiretapping; illegal torture, kidnapping, and detention; mass surveillance; government secrecy; Real ID; no-fly list; political spying; abuse of material witness statutes; and attacks on academic freedom?

    As Glenn Greenwald wrote in his formidable paper The New Domestic War on Terror is Coming, “what needs to be criminalized that is not already a crime?”, keeping in mind that as of June 2020, the United States has the highest prisoner rate in the world, followed by El Salvador, Turkmenistan, Thailand and Palau.

    Well, the answer is apparently simple and as always for our own good. We have come to a point in time where the enemy is not some radicalized ideology, it is not some foreign despot, it is not even the threat of war (whether it be economic, cyber or nuclear), but rather it is ourselves. We, the people, are the new enemies of the State.

    You may protest “Not I! I am a model citizen! I pay my taxes on time, I am never late or call in sick for work, I make sure to be up-to-date with the newest ‘woke’ revelations and I don’t engage with anything outside of the mainstream matrix during my free-time.” People such as yourself think, that when the Biden Administration is calling for tougher laws against domestic terrorism, that it is obviously meant for the ‘other guy,’ those uneducated bigots who are screaming at the top of their lungs “Treason!” and inciting what we are told to be forms of ‘insurrection,’ all in the name of the archaic ideas of ‘patriotism’ and the ‘U.S. Constitution.’

    You, unlike so many others, have no problem recognising that the U.S. Constitution is actually part of the problem, that by the standards used today, the U.S. Constitution is itself responsible for ‘inciting violence’ and thus guilty of domestic terrorism, and thus needs to be revoked.

    But you see… that’s just not good enough.

    Though you are well on your way to becoming a model citizen in the 21st century, you still have a little ways to go. It is for this reason that a guide to 21st century Newspeak has been recently released to make sure that well-intentioned citizens like yourself are fully informed of what is required of you in terms of appropriate behaviour, as well as appropriate thoughts, and though this will take a little more time, appropriate instincts.

    21st Century Newspeak

    The first alteration that will need to take place is freedom of thought. It has been shown through peer-review studies that individual thoughts are susceptible to forming erroneous beliefs and can lead to dangerous behaviours such as refusal to integrate into a community standard.

    Once an individual refuses to integrate into its designated community, it is only a matter of time before this individual shows opposition and even antagonism towards said community. Thus failure to integrate is one of the first signs that an individual is on the path to becoming a domestic terrorist.

    Because the individual mind is flawed, it can no longer be trusted to be the standard of its own judgement of what is right and wrong. It is for this reason that we are introducing groupthink. This concept is not new, however, the difference is from now on the individual’s environment will only be allowed to reciprocate the values of groupthink, and all other thoughts outside of groupthink are to be banned and punishable under the new laws.

    Even if thoughts outside of groupthink appear as harmless to the collective, they are not, for any thought that is not groupthink threatens to lead to a different outcome than that intended by groupthink and thus is a threat to the security of the collective.

    In order to ensure commitment to groupthink, it will be mandatory that every individual engage in at least 2 minutes of Hate every hour throughout the day, every day. This can be achieved either by watching 2 minutes of Hate news, or by engaging in a public 2 minutes of Hate with a colleague, a friend or family member via social media.

    It is imperative that an individual watch the 15 minute morning and evening “What to Hate” news provided by the Ministry of Truth (or Minitrue), in order to be the most up-to-date with what are the ongoing and new subjects of Hate, and what were previous subjects of Hate which are no longer deemed to be subjects of Hate.

    It is most important that an individual never refer to a former subject of Hate as such. Any present subject of Hate must be seen as having always been a subject of Hate and any former subject of Hate must be seen as having never been a subject of Hate.

    This may appear as an impossible task, but we assure you it is entirely possible with the use of doublethink, which many of you have already been practising. Doublethink requires that one be both conscious and unconscious of the fact that they are telling deliberate lies while genuinely believing them; to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies. This makes up a part of our new Party slogan: FREEDOM IS SLAVERY.

    Those who excel the most in doublethink will receive the highest stations within our newly organised community, as safe-guards against the renegade, the domestic terrorist.

    Another alteration that will need to occur is how we think and refer to the past and the future. With the newly enforced groupthink, the present is what groupthink dictates it to be, which is subject to change, however, must be regarded as having always been.

    The past is what the present dictates it to be, if it were not, it could challenge the basis for the present. Thus to preserve the present, the past must serve the present, only justifying why we Hate what we presently Hate and why we Love what we presently Love and can do nothing to contradict these Party lines. There will be permitted no records of an alternative past, there will be no way to prove that the past was ever different from what the present dictates it to be, the only threat to this narrative is the record of the individual mind, and once this ceases to be there will only be the Minitrue record as the recorder of past Truth.

    In effect, the model citizen will perceive the past as dead and the future as unimaginable. The future is unimaginable because it is impossible to think of an alternative to the present, in fact, the mere act of thinking of an alternative to the present is considered a challenge to the status quo of the present, and thus is a challenge to groupthink, and thus is a form of domestic terrorism, which we will call from now on thoughtcrime.

    Thoughtcrime is essentially any thought pertaining to memory, judgement of right and wrong, thoughts of an alternative reality, and self-reflection, which are now all deemed forms of thoughtcrime. If an individual is to engage in any of these sorts of thoughts, it is only a matter of time before they will come into conflict with groupthink and the Party line, thus private thoughts are banned and punished under the new laws.

    It may seem an impossible task at first not to engage in private thoughts, but again, we assure you it is entirely possible using crimestopCrimestop is the practice of not grasping analogies, failing to perceive logical errors, misunderstanding the simplest arguments, of being bored or repelled by any train of thought which is capable of leading in a heretical direction. Crimestop is essentially, protective stupidity.

    It is imperative that one practice crimestop during any interaction with another individual, however, it is also imperative that one practice crimestop within their own inner-dialogue, such that even from your own conscience you will be protected from committing a thoughtcrime.

    Newspeak will also help dissuade from thoughtcrimeNewspeak is to be the new acceptable vocabulary, anything that references words outside of the most-up-to-date edition of the Newspeak dictionary will be considered Oldspeak and something to be construed as counter to groupthink. It is understood that by reducing the vocabulary to revolve around a few words such as good; which for example can be used as plusgood, doubleplusgood, ungood etc, it will serve to narrow the range of thought an individual is capable of, and thus reduce the capability of committing a thoughtcrime. How wonderful! That in the future we will be unable to commit crime for we will be incapable of its thought! This makes up another part of our new Party slogan: IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH.

    In terms of the new laws, in effect, nothing will change. Unacceptable behaviours and thoughts will not be designated as illegal per se; one reason for this is because we do not plan on having any public trials. Anyone who is in violation of conduct will simply be removed either temporarily into a “re-education facility” or will be vaporised. Any subject that has been vaporised will be removed from the collective memory records and can never be referred to as having ever existed.

    The reason why no public trials will be held from now on is because, as we have seen, dissent is infectious. Thus, holding public trials risk further encouragement towards dissent. It is for this reason that dissenters must be removed swiftly and quietly in the middle of the night. Such disappearances will occur relatively regularly and will eventually become the new normal, however, it will not be traumatic for the collective. The subject will simply cease to exist as if it were all just a dream, the structure of our daily routine unaffected.

    In order to ensure utmost compliance, the collective will be employing the use of children spies, this has already been occurring abroad, and proves to be very effective.

    Purges and vaporizations will be a necessary part of the government mechanics and will become the new normal. We have already discussed the necessity for vaporizations, as for the necessity of purges, it is because the community will be built so as to remain in stasis, however, this can only be accomplished through artificial means, for it is not natural that a thing remain the same but rather that it either improves or deteriorates.

    However, in order for the Party to maintain absolute control, there can be no change to the present except for that chosen by the Party, thus any change is a challenge to the Party. In order to facilitate an artificial environment of no change, resources must artificially be kept low, and purges need to occur so that this environment of scarcity is tightly controlled and maintained.

    In order for us to achieve this, our economy will have to go through stagnation, we will need to decrease the amount of land used for cultivation, we will no longer add capital equipment needed for industrial growth and great blocks of the population will be prevented from working and will be kept half alive by State charity. The wheels of industry cannot be allowed to turn so as to increase the real wealth of the world. Goods must be produced, but they must not be distributed, and in practice the only way of achieving this is by continuous warfare.

    War will continue under the Old Cold War doctrine. War will always be present, and yet will never be seen by the majority of our citizens, the reason for this being that war will not be about a real threat to security nor about real conquests but rather will be about maintaining the present status quo by exhausting the surplus of consumable goods, while also helping to preserve the special mental atmosphere that a hierarchical society needs.

    However, real war will be purely an internal affair, the war waged by the ruling group against its own subjects, with the object of the war as to keep the structure of society intact and unchanging.

    A peace that is truly permanent under this new ideology is no different than an invisible permanent war. For peace in our new era will equate to stability through no change. This makes up our first Party slogan: WAR IS PEACE.

    Conclusion

    All of these means are necessary if we are to realise that the only secure basis for oligarchy is collectivism, and that oligarchy is the only means to achieving peace, freedom and strength for the collective.

    However, we are still very far from this ideal and there is much that threatens its becoming, namely, the masses, or what we call the proles. So long as the masses believe that they are entitled to freedom of thought, our endeavours cannot succeed.

    The individual must voluntarily relinquish this. It cannot be taken from them no matter the degree of control and no matter the threat of physical harm. An individual’s mind is theirs and cannot be taken, instead, the individual must be led to believe that it is in their best interest to relinquish their mind.

    Let us do our best then to convince the individual that they are no longer fit to use their mind and let us pray that we are successful, for if we fail, our entire system of control fails with it.

    “You would not make the act of submission which is the price of sanity…Reality exists only in the human mind, nowhere else. Not in the individual mind, which can make mistakes, and in any case soon perishes: only in the mind of the Party, which is collective and immortal. Whatever the Party holds to be truth, is truth. It is impossible to see reality except by looking through the eyes of the Party.”

    – O’Brien in George Orwell’s “1984”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/29/2021 – 00:10

  • Beijing Uses Anal Swabs To Detect COVID-19 Strains
    Beijing Uses Anal Swabs To Detect COVID-19 Strains

    Just as the WHO acknowledges (in time for the start of the Biden Administration) that the high-cycle PCR tests routinely lead to far higher numbers of false positives than the world had expected, Li Tongzeng, a doctor at Beijing’s You’an Hospital, and a proponent of anal swab tests, claims that “the coronavirus survives longer in the anus or excrement than those taken from upper body tracts.”

    And with this, Li is suggesting that the method is becoming more common than he had initially expected. Anal swabs are being deployed in Beijing quarantine as well as in some school settings, according to recent reports out of Beijing’s Daxing district.

    Authorities in the Chinese capital have started testing about 2MM people in the center of the city after two cases of a strain of the coronavirus were first detected in Britain were reported in Beijing.

    The rapid mass testing campaign started on Friday, a day before the city’s legislature was expected to convene an annual meeting and with just weeks to go until the country’s political heavyweights arrive in the capital for the year’s most important political gatherings.

    “All districts and work units must make epidemic prevention and control their top priority and spare no efforts in epidemic prevention and handling,” municipal government spokesman Tian Wei said on Friday afternoon, citing orders from the city’s COVID-19 task force.

    The mass testing was conducted after the capital went into partial lockdown in Daxing and Shunyi, with genetic sequencing revealing two cases of the more transmissible coronavirus variant discovered last month in Britain.

    The capital has since been on high alert. More than 1.2K people have been tested at a school attended by one pupil with an asymptomatic case of the COVId-19 Each of the contacts at the school had nasal, saliva and anal swabs as well as serum tests – all of which were negative.

    The jury is still out on whether anal swabs, which reportedly take about 10 seconds, are more useful than a regular throat swab to test for coronavirus.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 23:50

  • Blinken Says Iran Must Comply With Nuclear Deal Before The US Does
    Blinken Says Iran Must Comply With Nuclear Deal Before The US Does

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    In a sign that the US is a long way from lifting sanctions on Iran, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US will not return to the nuclear deal until Iran comes back into compliance.

    “President Biden has been very clear in saying that if Iran comes back into full compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA, the United States would do the same thing,” Blinken said at a press conference on Wednesday.

    Biden with newly confirmed Secretary of State Anthony Blinken

    But we are a long ways from that point. Iran is out of compliance on a number of fronts. And it would take some time … for it to come back into compliance in time for us then to assess whether it was meeting its obligations,” he said.

    Blinken’s comments come after Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said the US must take the first step. Writing in Foreign Affairs last week, Zarif called on President Biden to unconditionally lift sanctions if he is serious about restoring the JCPOA.

    Zarif’s argument is that since the US was the first to violate the deal by re-imposing sanctions on Iran in 2018, it’s on Washington to revive the JCPOA. Iran gradually began violating the deal in 2019, after waiting a year for the other signatories to offset US sanctions.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Zarif, and other Iranian officials, have made it clear these violations are easily reversible and that they would quickly comply with the agreement if the US gives Iran sanctions relief.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 23:30

  • A Mystery Guest Just Booked All 446 Rooms At An Iconic Canadian Lodge For 65 Days
    A Mystery Guest Just Booked All 446 Rooms At An Iconic Canadian Lodge For 65 Days

    The entirety of the well known Fairmont hotel at Jasper Park lodge in Alberta has been booked for 65 days beginning February 23. The estate is a collection of log cabins and other buildings that is spread over 700 acres. It is well known for attracting high profile guests. 

    A mystery guest has booked all 446 rooms at the lodge, who has been mum about who the mystery guest is, and what the purpose of the stay could be. 

    “The dates are blacked out on Fairmont’s reservation website and a call to the front desk concierge confirmed that no rooms will be made available,” CBC News reported. “Citing the four-star hotel’s dedication to discretion, officials with the hotel aren’t divulging any details, including how the unusual booking might affect staffing levels or how many reservations were cancelled to accommodate it.”

    Additionally, guests who previously had reservations booked for that period of time have been told their reservations are cancelled. 

    A statement from the hotel read: “We have a private booking during the below dates however, as we must always safeguard the privacy of our guests, we do not share details about hotel reservations, meetings, or private events.”

    Some are speculating that the hotel is going to be used to film a Television show. The booking even prompted questions to the province’s Chief Medical Officer about potential Covid precautions at the hotel. She responded:

    “As we look to any decisions that we make, No. 1 is whether or not there’s any risk to the public, whether any of the activities could potentially cause spread or cause a public risk,” she said.

    “And then, No. 2, as we consider any potential requests for exemptions, we also consider the broader public interest and what might be in that broader public interest. And again that’s part of these considerations as we look to this film industry framework that we’re working on.”

    As we have noted, the wealth of billionaires has skyrocketed more than $1 trillion during the Covid pandemic, thanks to Central Banks printing trillions of new dollars. To be honest, we’re not surprised by the “mysterious” booking and wouldn’t be surprised if we see more gluttony, a la Lifestyles of the Rich And Famous, in the year ahead. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 23:10

  • DogeCoin Up 800%; WallStreetBets, Elon Musk Involved
    DogeCoin Up 800%; WallStreetBets, Elon Musk Involved

    Many years ago, in December 2013, when bitcoin was still in its very early adoption phase and few had any illusions that it would ever hit $1000 let alone $40,000, two software engineers – Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer – introduced a cryptocurrency that was meant to be a payment system that was “instant, fun, and free from traditional banking fees” but was in reality a joke, and a meme spoof on the concept of bitcoin. In other words, it was a joke, even within the otherwise austere and serious crypto community. It was called DogeCoin, and was represented by a Shiba Inu dog as its logo, literally taken from the “Doge” meme.

    We bring it up, because moments ago, Dogecoin surpassed Litecoin in market cap, hitting $8.5 billion after rising 800% today, and hitting an all-time high of $0.082 before settling down to $0.0667, on volume that overtook both bitcoin and ethereum on binance, with some $3.4 billion dogecoins traded.

    So what the hell is going on here, and why is this particular crypto soaring when the rest  of the crypto space is quiet?

    Is Melvin Capital/Citadel short dogecoin and have the 5.5 million bloodhounds of Wallstreetbets been unleashed yet again?

    While it is unclear what sparked the furious buying spree, according to CoinDesk, WSB is indeed involved, and the move was “likely caused by attention from public Reddit trading collective Wall Street Bets combined with a TikTok post about the “dogecoin army” by niche celebrity Carole Baskin from Netflix’s “Tiger King.”

    Separately, around 5:47pm ET, Elon Musk tweeted a picture of whippet, which some believe was a to DOGE’s surge, but others note may have unleashed the heaviest part of the buying…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … with some reacting to Musk’s tweet “there’s the $DOGE tweet we’ve been waiting for… In typical @elonmusk fashion.”

    Whatever the reason, this is the clearest indication yet of the absolute dash for trash momentum observed across capital markets since the Fed’s take over, with “investors” now openly mocking the asset allocation process and dumping their cash into an “asset” which even its creators admit is worthless.

    While DOGE appears to have peaked and is now sliding, expect much more insanity tomorrow and the coming days as this ridiculous bubble is now prompting laughable (literally) assets to generate returns the stock market could only dream of.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 22:57

  • Democrats Introduce Senate Bill To Make D.C. The 51st State
    Democrats Introduce Senate Bill To Make D.C. The 51st State

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) and other Democratic senators are introducing a bill for D.C. statehood today, a proposal with heavy opposition in the public in continuing polls. 

    Indeed, the bill was one of the reasons that members and advocates demanded the killing of the filibuster rule to force through the change in status based on a bare majority.

    If successful, it would give the Democrats two more senators in a city-state that will expected to remain reliably blue.  I have testified repeatedly on this issue.  There are strong arguments for changing the status of the District and statehood is a viable option.

    It would clearly be constitutional unlike past proposals. The question is whether it is the best option for the country.  Roughly 20 years ago, I proposed a “modified retrocession plan” that would be an alternative if the Congress wanted full voting rights for citizens of the District.

    The proposal would make create the first city-state in our history with a population of 700,000.

    However, half of the country opposes the idea.

    A new Harris/Hill poll shows fifty-two percent of respondents said they favored statehood while 48 percent said they opposed it.  That is heavy opposition for such a statehood change.

    Biden just unveiled another proposal with heavy public opposition: a commission that would allow court-packing or other structural changes on the Court to blunt the conservative majority.

    I have written a long academic publication on the status of the District of Columbia and testified at the prior hearings on allowing for voting representation of District residents. See Jonathan Turley, Too Clever By Half: The Partial Representation of the District of Columbia in the House of Representatives, 76 George Washington University Law Review 305-374 (2008).   I also testified in both the House and Senate repeatedly on such proposals.

    The debate over D.C. statehood is a complex issue with historical, constitutional, and legal dimensions.  It is also an issue with important and unresolved racial issues of a black-majority city without direct representation in Congress.  I have previously voiced my view that such lack of representation for the District is unacceptable and untenable in our country.

    In all, I have testified five times in the House and the Senate on this issue in Congress, particularly on the effort to simply give the District a vote in the House of Representatives.  I encouraged the Congress to avoid such flagrantly unconstitutional measures of a vote as a non-state entity and instead focus on a vote of statehood or retrocession.  That is why I offered a “modified retrocession plan”, which was also discussed in an academic work. Under my proposal, the mall and core federal buildings would remain the District of Columbia (as is the case in this legislation) but the remainder of the District would retrocede back to Maryland (as did the other half of the original District to Virginia). In this way, residents would receive full representation while receiving the benefits of various Maryland educational and other opportunities. That reduction of the federal enclave has been incorporated in some statehood proposals.  I believed that such retrocession offered the fastest course for not just full representation but improved social and educational programs for the district residents.  I laid out a phased retrocession plan that began with immediate and full representation.  This could be done by congressional vote.

    People of good-faith can disagree on such proposals and the current legislation is clearly a constitutional approach to reaching a final resolution on the lack of representation in Congress.  Indeed, it is important to hear from those who believe that statehood is an important step toward dealing with the historical racial inequalities and discrimination in our nation.  Modified retrocession may not be enough to resolve such issues for many in our community.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 22:50

  • Putin Declares Virus "Slowly Receding" In Russia Amid Sputnik V Mass Vaccination Campaign 
    Putin Declares Virus “Slowly Receding” In Russia Amid Sputnik V Mass Vaccination Campaign 

    Russian President Vladimir Putin told a meeting of his cabinet on Thursday that the swift actions of national health officials have caused the pandemic to slowly subside throughout the country, also given Russia was the first the roll out with a large-scale vaccination program of its population.

    Generally, [these actions] yield positive results,” Putin declared, according to TASS. “The pandemic is gradually receding.”

    While stressing it remains “too early to relax” he nonetheless emphasized that the number of recoveries “has been steadily above the infection numbers lately.” Putin added, “As of lethality, the situation is generally satisfactory if you can speak about it in such terms. Nevertheless, this is the case in comparison with other countries.”

    Via Zuma Press

    He further touted at a moment that Hungary has controversially broken ranks with the EU and approved and bought the Russian Sputnik V vaccine that, “We have around 12 infections per every 100,000 people,” which is “four times as low as in European countries, many European countries.”

    “We launched a mass vaccination campaign on January 18, we have big plans in this regard,” the president noted. “[Trade and Industry Minister Denis] Manturov reported to me that vaccine production was ahead of schedule,” he added

    Yet he still estimated that 68 million Russians needed to be vaccinated against the coronavirus. Late summer and into the fall Russia faced fierce criticism over what Western officials called a “rush” to approve an unproven vaccine. 

    Indeed Russia was the first out globally, but time will tell of the effectiveness of the efforts. In early December ‘frontline’ workers that included teachers, doctors, social workers were the first round in the mass vaccination efforts, with the middle of this month seeing the campaign reaching the broader population.

    Russia now has the fifth highest number of cases worldwide at just over 3.7 million infections, which is barely under the UK. For the past months Russia was among the top four most infected countries globally. Critics have attacked the Kremlin’s official claims of having already vaccinated millions people with Sputnik V, with many suggesting the true number is in reality in the hundreds of thousands. 

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    Moscow further says it’s received orders for over a billion doses to be administered abroad at a moment the WHO is still reviewing it, as Reuters reports: “Asked about WHO’s scrutiny of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, Kluge said he had spoken with Moscow’s ambassador on Wednesday and that he could confirm that data needed by WHO scientists to review the shot was en route to Geneva where the WHO is based.”

    “The Russian vaccine is being distributed in Europe including EU member state Hungary as well as elsewhere in the world, even though the European Medicines Agency is not currently reviewing it for approval,” the report noted.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 22:30

  • Quinn: The Fourth Turning Detonation, Part 2
    Quinn: The Fourth Turning Detonation, Part 2

    Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

    In Part One of this article, I discussed the dramatic events that shaped 2020 and will continue to have a major influence on the direction of this Fourth Turning moving forward. The immense power of Mordor on the Potomac seems to be unassailable, but the little people still have a chance if they utilize their skills and intelligence to the utmost.

    Now that Trump has been defeated and cast into oblivion by the forces of Mordor on the Potomac, those who have some knowledge about generational theory and the course of previous Fourth Turnings have lamented Trump is not the Grey Champion and they were misled by believing he was their hero. How could he be the Grey Champion if he lost? I do not profess to be an expert, as I am just trying to understand the underlying forces driving this Fourth Turning towards its climax, but losing a battle in a long war does not disqualify Trump as a Grey Champion. The Grey Champion character was born from the writings of Nathaniel Hawthorne.

    “Who is this gray patriarch? His hour is one of darkness, and adversity, and peril. That stately form, combining the leader and the saint…could only belong to some old champion of the righteous cause, whom the oppressor’s drum had summoned from his grave.” – Nathaniel Hawthorne

    There is not just one Grey Champion during a Fourth Turning, and their participation is generally as a lightening rod for change or the inspiration for younger generations to mobilize and fight the battles which ultimately decide the fate of nations and empires.  Samuel Adams and Ben Franklin were Grey Champions during the American Revolution Fourth Turning. Their fiery rhetoric and ability to guide the younger firebrands were their contributions to the cause.

    Both Abe Lincoln and Jeff Davis were Grey Champions during the Civil War. One was assassinated before the conclusion of the war and the other was on the losing side, spending a couple years in a Federal prison after the war. FDR, Churchill, and Stalin were all Grey Champions during the World War II Fourth Turning. FDR died before the conclusion of the war and Congress implemented a two-term limit because he had become too powerful. Churchill was on the winning side, but the British empire disintegrated during his reign. Stalin, who had already murdered millions of his own people, presided over a despotic regime and immediately became the enemy of his former allies.

    Anyone with a true grasp of history would acknowledge all these men had significant personality faults, huge egos, a determination to win by any means necessary (including breaking the law and flaunting the Constitution), and ability to mobilize forces to accomplish their goals. As we are in the thirteenth year of this Fourth Turning and Grey Champions always arise in the earlier stages, there is no doubt Trump was and still is one of the Grey Champions driving this ongoing Crisis towards its bloody climax.

    He still has 75 million or so followers, with many of them motivated to go wherever he leads. Does this mean a new party which would destroy the Uni-party Republican/Democrat control over our government? Does it mean taking to the streets and confronting the BLM and ANTIFA domestic terrorists in armed combat? Or will he be convicted by the Senate, thrown in jail, and financially ruined by his failed attempt to defeat the Deep State – possibly spurring his followers to become radicalized – matching the narrative being pushed by the authoritarian leftist regime now in office?

    Those who put their faith in Trump are currently in disarray. Some feel betrayed. Others are depressed. Some are just disappointed he was unable to drain the swamp. They believe he just was not up to the task. Some think he was installed by the Deep State to lure a segment of the country into revealing their allegiances so they can be de-programmed and/or forced to grovel for forgiveness by pledging allegiance to the permanent party run by authoritarian billionaire oligarchs.

    The accusations and recriminations within the Republican party will surely tear it apart, especially if GOP Senators join Schumer and McConnell in convicting Trump of creating an insurrection. Of course, there are still diehard believers this is just part of the plan and Trump will emerge victorious over senile Joe and his Deep State handlers. Others hope he will run again in 2024, vanquishing his foes and once again making America great again again. It is unlikely that someone with Trump’s ego and desire for attention will just fade into the sunset. He will continue to be a lightning rod, impacting the future course of this Fourth Turning, as one of the Grey Champions.

    As I survey the landscape there are a few other major players who also fit the Grey Champion prophet archetype and will certainly play a key role in the forthcoming climactic scenes of this Fourth Turning. On the domestic front Bill Gates has emerged from the shadows during this scamdemic, using his immense wealth and power to push for global vaccinations with experimental DNA altering formulas never used on human beings before. His agenda coincides with Klaus Schwab’s Great Reset new world order.

    The Clintons are both Boomers who have functioned as the Jeff Davis to Trump over the last four years, participating and leading the Deep State coup by pushing the Russiagate fabrications to distract from their traitorous criminal acts. Crooked Hillary is ecstatic over deposing Trump and now is leading the effort to bury him. At this stage of the Fourth Turning, it appears Gates and the Clintons are winning, as they have the complete backing of the Deep State, Silicon Valley billionaire tyrants, and the globalist billionaires like Soros.

    The two Grey Champions who will most certainly play a part in the second half of this Fourth Turning, when blood is likely to be shed in vast quantities, are Vlad Putin and Xi Jinping. These ruthless dictators have no fear of losing an election or having to deal with a hostile media. The Deep State has been pushing conflict with Russia for Trump’s entire term and continue to push a nuclear power through NATO and vassals in the Middle East.

    The intensifying engagements between China and Taiwan, with the U.S. sailing an aircraft carrier force into the South China Sea, and ongoing tensions over trade and spying, have ratcheted up the chances of armed conflict between these nuclear super-powers. Fourth Turnings always plunge into total war, with an inescapable conclusion as to who won and who lost. Defeat means total surrender. The only question is what Pearl Harbor or Fort Sumter moment kicks off the festivities in the foreseeable future.

    Based on the first three weeks of this year and what appears to be on the short-term horizon, I am confident the term “detonation” will apply to this fateful year. The intensity level has already reached 10 but is headed up to 11.

    As Fourth Turnings go the 80-year cycle would certainly argue for substantial conflict to erupt in 2021.

    In 1781, the Battle of Yorktown concluded with Cornwallis surrendering to General Washington and concluding the armed struggle of the American Revolution, insuring the birth of a new nation.

    Exactly 80 years later in 1861, Southern states seceded from the Union and formed the Confederate States of America. Lincoln needed to sneak into Washington DC to avoid an assassination attempt in Baltimore. Fort Sumter was attacked and surrendered to Confederate forces. The First Battle of Bull Run resulted in a resounding Confederate victory and led Lincoln to institute a draft and an income tax. Over 600,000 men died in the next four years.

    Exactly 80 years later in 1941, while Hitler was riding roughshod across Europe and turning his attention towards Russia, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor after FDR cut off their oil supply to provoke an attack. Tens of millions died over the next four years. It is now exactly 80 years later. One must ponder what potential tragedy awaits our nation and the world?

    With the elevation of a vacuous disorientated Trojan horse to the presidency, controlled by dark forces pulling the strings of their puppet, we are already experiencing many of the things Strauss and Howe warned about in their 1997 prophecy.

    “Institutions will be increasingly bossy, limiting personal freedoms, chastising bad manners, and cleansing the culture. Powerful new civic organizations will make judgments about which individual rights deserve respect and which do not. Criminal justice will become swift and rough, trampling on some innocents to protect an endangered and desperate society from those feared to be guilty. Expect a loss of personal privacy. Fourth Turnings can be dark times for the free spirit: Just as one kind of official may have new authority to do something for you, another kind—some hastily deputized magistrate—may have new authority to do something to you.”

    They were not predicting specifics but could decipher an outline of our future through the fog, by observing previous Fourth Turnings. The limitations of personal freedoms are being implemented by totalitarian politicians, with the Big-Tech surveillance censorship overlords used to enforce the directives of those running the show, while trampling on the 1st Amendment and the right of citizens to voice dissenting opinions. Those who have seized power are now criminalizing any view not fitting their approved narrative and painting all Trump supporters as white supremacists.

    These threats of retribution, while concurrently peddling nonsense about national unity, have the potential to backfire and blow up in their faces. Instead of unity, the impeachment of a president no longer in office and attempts to provoke violence by Trump supporters in order to usher in the pre-written 20,000 page Domestic Terror Patriot Act 2.0 is pushing the country towards civil war. The misuse of justice and criminalizing the acts of those exercising their right to live their lives will ignite a firestorm threatening to spread across the nation, with unknown long-term consequences.

    I will not pretend to know what comes next, but I am sure the three key factors driving this crisis since 2008: debt, civic decay, and global disorder will continue to coalesce into a lethal concoction, destined to sweep away the underpinnings of the American Empire, ushering in a new social order. I think the repressive measures being implemented by Pelosi, Schumer, despot Democrat governors, and government apparatchiks are a sign of weakness and fear. Their bluster, threats, fear mongering and denunciation of half the voters in the country, portray a precarious fragility, with a dangerous agenda built on a foundation of deception and delusion.

    A madness is gripping the nation, a dismal realization nothing is right. Everything has a chaotic feel, as financial markets surpass bubble territory into uncharted waters; politicians threaten and accuse each other of treasonous acts; government overreach and dysfunction is laid bare for all to see; the Deep State has been exposed as their coup to take down Trump required them to step out of the shadows; a manufactured race war led by BLM and ANTIFA useful idiots at the behest of Soros and his ilk continues to fester;  Russia and China continue to undermine U.S. hegemony; and the global debt Ponzi scheme has entered its blow-off road to ruin phase.

    The only thing keeping these financial markets at these outrageously elevated levels is an irrational level of misplaced trust in their puppet Powell and his feckless Fed cronies. When, not if, these markets begin to cascade downward and greed turns to fear, an implosion of institutional and societal trust will remove the final underpinnings of this unsustainable financial paradigm.

    The Wall Street QE addicts and their captured central banker drug dealers were able to exploit the concocted “Covid Crisis” as cover for an already imploding financial system with the injection of $4 trillion of heroin into their veins and the assurance of trillions more. Anyone using reason and rational thought knows this debt solvency fantasy is destined for a disastrous denouement. If it happens in 2021, this year will surely go down in history.

    This combustible amalgamation of unpayable debt, civic anarchy, and global chaos are poised to detonate in 2021, initiating a period of maximum darkness, death, destruction, and momentous choices. We are being propelled towards a climax which will mark the death of the old order and the birth of a new. The question is whether the new order will be better or worse for average Americans.

    With the newly installed totalitarian regime in Washington DC, it appears they plan to implement full government control over every aspect of our lives, with the final eradication of the 1st, 2nd, and 4th Amendments as the stick and unlimited government checks as the carrot. Their classification and treatment of 75 million Americans as the enemy will accomplish the task of converting them into a real enemy.

    There will be lone wolves who use violent means to fight back. Others will go Galt and starve the beast. Others may organize into like minded communities and dare the authorities to trample on their freedoms and liberties. It will be difficult to control 75 million angry, heavily armed, dis-enfranchised deplorables. The new regime is led by arrogant, hubristic, mediocre minded bureaucrats who are incapable of using anything but brutality to get there way.

    Their grasp on power is fragile and a determined strategic minded resistance will hit them where they are weakest, sabotaging commerce, communications, the power grid, and their social media propaganda arm. At this point in 2021 it looks bleak for lovers of liberty, but the fight has just begun.

    The coming deadly reckoning of this Fourth Turning will require tremendous courage, guile, personal sacrifice, dreadful alternatives, survival skills, intelligence, strategic thinking, and an audacity to win at all costs. Those still caught in the mindset of voting in good guys to change the outcome are delusional, as the outcome of this past election confirmed voting does not matter.

    There are wealthy, powerful, sociopath, globalist oligarchs who constitute the real power in this world and unless they are confronted and defeated, the outcome of this Fourth Turning will result in a dark future for humanity and the final obliteration of our Constitution. There is no way to avoid the coming conflict. Sides must be chosen. You will not be able to sit this one out. They will come for you, whether you like it or not.

    “If civic virtue is so frequently lost, it must be just as frequently regained. This is what happens in a Fourth Turning. While a Crisis mood renders societies newly desperate, it also renders them newly capable, which is why a saecular winter is to be welcomed as much as feared. As today’s Americans look ahead, the challenge is to marshal the coming season’s new public energies to achieve positive, not destructive ends. The better we ready ourselves collectively the more likely we will be not just to survive the Crisis but to apply its fury for good and humane purposes.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    Based upon history, the ultimate resolution will not be based on compromise, civility, persuasion, or nonviolent means. Our world will be shaken to its very foundation and transformed in unknowable ways over the next decade. Winter has arrived with a ferocity born of the deceptions of powerful men, and we will need to marshal all our strength and fortitude to survive the coming tempests. The fury of the Crisis will eventually exhaust itself and result in a positive or destructive aftermath. History offers no guidance or assurances as to the outcome. That will be entirely up to us. Godspeed and good luck.

    *  *  *

    The corrupt establishment will do anything to suppress sites like the Burning Platform from revealing the truth. The corporate media does this by demonetizing sites like mine by blackballing the site from advertising revenue. If you get value from this site, please keep it running with a donation.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 22:10

  • US Outraged After Pakistan's Top Court Frees Islamist Who Beheaded Journalist Daniel Pearl
    US Outraged After Pakistan’s Top Court Frees Islamist Who Beheaded Journalist Daniel Pearl

    The family of slain American journalist Daniel Pearl says they are in “complete shock” after Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Thursday ordered his Pakistani-British killer’s release after the family appealed a previously overturned conviction ruling. He and his accomplices were acquitted by a panel of three judges and will never again see a prison cell over the crime

    “By a majority of two to one, they have acquitted all the accused persons and ordered their release,” Reuters reports, citing a Pakistani courts official. The main suspect in Pearl’s Murder, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh, had earlier been found guilty of luring the journalist to a meeting in 2002 in Karachi while he was investigating possible links between Richard C. Reid, known as the “Shoe Bomber”, and Pakistani jihadists.

    Daniel Pearl, left, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh, right

    Later the same year the US embassy in Pakistan was subsequently mailed a gruesome beheading video confirmed to be that of 38-year-old Wall Street Journal reporter and California native Daniel Pearl.

    “Today’s decision is a complete travesty of justice,” Pearl’s family said.

    White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Thursday in follow-up that the US is “outraged” by the ruling:

    Speaking at the White House briefing Thursday, Psaki said the decision “is an affront to terrorism victims everywhere, including in Pakistan,” and she called on the “Pakistani government to expeditiously review its legal options including allowing the United States to prosecute Sheikh for the brutal murder of an American citizen and journalist.”

    Psaki said the Pakistani court’s actions underscored the administration’s commitment to secure justice for Pearl’s family.

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    It could serve to severely damage US-Pakistani relations while already shaky, and further Reuters writes that the United States could seek to have Sheikh extradited.

    “The United States had said it may seek to try Sheikh if efforts to keep him in prison failed in what experts say could be a challenging factor in Pakistan’s relationship with the Washington. It comes as a new U.S. administration is reviewing Afghanistan’s peace process, in which Pakistan is a key player,” according to Reuters.

    The horrific slaying had been an early example in the ‘war on terror’ years of the gruesome lengths that al-Qaeda and other Islamist terror organizations would go to in order to send a “message” to the West, with multiple such beheading videos later coming out of Iraq and Syria.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 21:50

  • Meet The Censored: Status Coup
    Meet The Censored: Status Coup

    Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

    On January 6th, Jon Farina, photographer and videographer for Jordan Chariton’s Status Coup outlet, captured horrifying images. At the Capitol, a pro-Trump mob tried to burst into the building, and a police officer who attempted to intercede was caught in a door. He cried out in pain, but the crowd was indifferent, chanting, “Heave, ho!” as they tried to break in. Farina, in the middle of the physical mayhem as photojournalists often are, caught the scene up close while 30,000 people watched the live feed.

    Farina’s footage rocketed around the world, and major press outlets celebrated his work as an example of hard-hitting reporting. CNN did a laudatory story about the freelance photojournalist, with Pamela Brown asking Farina to “bring us inside the mayhem.” Other outlets like USA Today quoted his recollections of that day, and the likes of Steven Colbert on CBS, as well as ABC News, NBC, MSNBC, CNBC, the Guardian, the Wall Street Journal, CNN, the New York Post, the Daily Mail, and others used it as fodder for outraged coverage of the riot:

    For a week or so, Status Coup was feted for service on the front lines of responsible journalism. Nearly two weeks later, on January 18th, another Farina live stream was shut down by YouTube, thanks to policies that will make it very difficult for non-corporate media going forward to do live reporting. In fact, it’s not a stretch to say that if the incident from the 18th happened earlier, we may never have gotten the Capitol pictures.

    On the 18th, Farina was in Richmond, Virginia, where a significant rally of pro-gun protesters was expected. There had been widespread reports warning of unrest. CBS relayed FBI fears of “credible threats of violence,” while the Washington Post said officials were “on edge” ahead of the Martin Luther King Day protest, gearing up for a full-scale assault:

    Members of the National Guard are on standby. Plywood covers the windows of the State Capitol. Tall metal barricades surround Capitol Square, with police vehicles idling on pathways just inside locked pedestrian gates. Downtown streets will be closed; signs warning against carrying guns have gone up around the city.

    “The violent, lawless insurrection and assault on democracy and its institutions that unfolded last week in Washington, D.C., will not be tolerated in the city of Richmond,” Mayor Levar Stoney warned on Thursday.

    The threats may have been credible, but when Farina began live-streaming to an audience of 6,000, the event turned out to be peaceful and unremarkable, though not without interest from a news perspective.

    “Frankly, there might have been more press than protesters,” Status Coup’s Chariton said later. “And while it was live, it was pretty informative. Jon talked to 4-5 people, and they pretty much all made it clear that they weren’t Trump supporters, that they didn’t support what happened in the Capitol. They were pretty relaxed compared to the propaganda ahead of time.”

    Despite the seeming unremarkableness of the event, it shut down abruptly mid-feed. Chariton assumed something happened on Farina’s end.

    “Then I got an email from YouTube, telling me we’d violated their ‘Firearms Policy.’ I wasn’t aware they had a firearms policy.”

    Chariton went onto Twitter to announce what happened, and after a few well-known media figures like Krystal Ball and Ryan Grim complained, YouTube restored the content. Other independents covering the rally, however, like Andrew Kimmel, never had their content restored.

    The serious consequence of the Virginia episode was not so much the lost coverage of the rally, but what Chariton had to tell Farina after the event. Well-known for covering labor issues, homelessness, and especially the Flint water crisis, Status Coup had been growing, in large part because of live stream content. Now, however, the possibility that YouTube might issue a strike against his channel, or take it down altogether, forced him into a difficult decision. “I had to tell [Farina] not to go live anymore,” he says.

    One person at the same rally wasn’t surprised by what happened. Videographer and well-known protest shooter Ford Fischer of News2Share, the first profile subject of “Meet the Censored,” was also in Richmond to shoot the event. He didn’t get taken down by YouTube, but only because he didn’t bother trying to go live.

    “I was there on January 18th and didn’t stream it, because I knew it’d get banned,” Fischer says. “I filmed basically the same rally on January 17th and it did get banned.”

    The January 17th rally Fischer referenced was a pro-gun rally in Columbus, Ohio, that in the wake of the Capitol riot garnered significant advance media coverage. Once again, headlines like “FBI warns of Potential Boogaloo Violence During January 17th Rallies” primed audiences to expect the worst, and also to make a direct connection with the January 6th events. In fact, Twitter cited the coming Ohio rally in its post announcing the closure of Donald Trump’s account, describing the Ohio event as a possible “secondary attack”:

    Plans for future armed protests have already begun proliferating on and off-Twitter, including a proposed secondary attack on the US Capitol and state capitol buildings on January 17, 2021. 

    According to Fischer, the Twitter announcement didn’t exactly make sense, because the protesters in Ohio were more of a libertarian ilk, and, as Farina and Chariton discovered in the Virginia crowd, not so clearly aligned with Trump as Twitter and other media outlets may have imagined. Fischer has frequently covered events involving the gun-toting Boogaloos, whom he describes as anti-authoritarian and less likely to be Trumpists than to profess a pox-on-both-houses attitude to Trump and Joe Biden both (“You might hear something like, ‘Unless you put Ron Paul on the ballot, I’m not voting,’” he says).

    Although there’s significant national interest in the group, both among supporters and detractors, Fischer says “I’ve basically stopped trying to live stream rallies involving Boogaloos.” Back on July 4th, 2020, he shot a live stream of a joint armed rally of Boogaloos and Black Lives Matter, protesting together against police violence — here again, we see the significant political differences between Trump supporters and some of these pro-gun groups — only to have the live stream interrupted, on the same grounds that it violated Google’s firearms policy.

    Nonetheless, Fischer attempted to shoot the January 17th rally, among other things because of the obvious public interest in the event, which was heavily covered by the mainstream press. Local TV affiliates associated with networks like ABC and CNN covered the January 17th rallies in Columbus and in other locations, even broadcasting live. However, when Fischer tried to live stream, he was cut off in short order by a notice identical to the one received by Chariton. He was reminded that YouTube “does not allow live streams showing someone holding, handling, or transporting a firearm.”

    The policy presents obvious head-scratching issues. For one, as Fischer points out, virtually all police carry a firearm, so “there’s obviously some subjectivity in what’s being enforced.” Furthermore, the rule doesn’t seem to apply to major corporate outlets, a double-standard problem that’s a constant in this universe.

    In an even more bizarre recent incident, YouTube this past weekend removed video Fischer shot on January 6th — not live footage, but still — of the crowd listening to Donald Trump before the Capitol riot. This time, the grounds were that the content advanced “false claims that widespread fraud errors or glitches affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.”

    Fischer supposes the issue has to do with the fact that the unedited, single-shot video — which is focused mainly on the crowd reaction — caught Trump’s own words. This might make sense, except that Trump’s speech that day is still on YouTube, as broadcast by several CBS affiliates, among others. As with Farina, Fischer’s Capitol protest footage was picked up by numerous major outlets, including CNN, NBC, CBS, BBC, and others, but the system seems to incentivize independent shooters to distribute footage through corporate outlets only, rather than conveying directly to their own audiences.

    “I absolutely think there’s a campaign against independent content creators, especially live,” Fischer says. “Major outlets face no such technical issues.”

    This makes any attempt to build an alternative news outlet a steep uphill climb, even when there’s a positive audience response, as Chariton has found out. Formerly with The Young Turks, Chariton’s niche is national news from a left/progressive perspective, with special emphasis on the area where corporate outlets once had a near-monopoly, e.g. on-location production of images and reporting.

    Typically, alternative media outlets can’t afford to travel much and often have to rely on wire services and commercial coverage for primary source material, especially for expensive beats like the presidential election. Chariton emphasizes going to hot spots like Flint and to election campaign events to generate original images and video interviews, an innovative alt-media take on national news coverage. Live stream coverage had been a major part of their formula.

    The Ohio and Virginia incidents underscore two developments involving platforms like YouTube/Google, Facebook, and Twitter in recent years. The first is the campaign to stress what Google calls “authoritative content,” which up-ranks articles and videos issued by major corporate news outlets like CNN or CBS, while decreasing traffic for independent sites on the left, the right, and in between.

    The second has been an effort to close loopholes in the platforms’ content moderation regimes. In the wake of the Capitol riot, this trend intensified. After the “insurrection,” a series of trial-balloon stories appeared in the press, suggesting that Internet nooks and crannies where conspiracy theory and misinformation proliferate might need more aggressive cleaning.

    The AP warned that “Apple and Google, among others, have left open a major loophole for this material: Podcasts.” The New York Times meanwhile reported on an exodus of millions of users who, fearing a Big Tech crackdown, jumped to encyrpted sites like Signal and Telegram.

    The Times quoted the head of the Association of State Criminal Investigative Agencies, Louis Grever, as saying such sites allow “groups that have an ill intent to plan behind the curtain.” Noting the situation “worried U.S. authorities,” the piece suggested the migration might “inflame the debate” over encryption.

    Podcasts, encrypted apps: how about live programming? Pundits had long worried that live stream capability was allowing the broadcast of violence and hate speech. In the hands of alternative media, however, the tool posed another problem, in the form of simply showing offensive reality.

    In the cases of people like Fischer and Chariton, however, it’s unclear how platforms like YouTube understand the documentation of political demonstrations. If you film a neo-Nazi running his mouth, should you be banned for covering his hate speech? If you show a gun-rights activist carrying a gun, are you yourself engaging in pro-gun activism?

    For independent outlets like Status Coup, these questions pose a serious problem. Because they’re dependent financially on platforms like YouTube to reach subscribers, they can’t afford to take the risk of being shut down. But how can alternative media operate if it doesn’t know exactly where the lines are? Also, how can such outlets add value when its one advantage over corporate media — flexibility, and willingness to cover topics outside the mainstream — is limited by the fear of consequences from making independent-minded editorial decisions?

    “It’s pretty horrible,” Chariton said, “if we have to consider not doing our jobs, out of fear that YouTube is going to remove our content, or remove our channel without warning (like they’ve begun doing to other, smaller channels).”

    The standard response to complaints about incidents like this is that YouTube and Google are private companies, and no one has a right to a platform on a private space. Chariton acknowledges this and concedes there are alternative platforms, like Rokfin, a video-sharing alternative to YouTube.

    For the foreseeable future anyway, however, it would be nearly impossible to build a successful alternative video-based channel without the assent of the small handful of major tech platforms that dominate media. “People live on YouTube and Facebook,” is how Chariton puts it.

    I asked him a few more questions about the future of live content, and what happened on January 18th:

    TK: How has the ability to produce live content affected your business?

    JC: Status Coup was up 20,000 subscribers since November, in large part because we were covering stories like the “Stop the Steal” movement and other issues related to the election. I’d say 95% of that content was live content. We’ve done a lot of stuff, from coverage of GM’s decision to lay off 15,000 workers to the epidemic of homelessness in Seattle, to repeated reporting trips in Flint covering the ongoing water crisis. It’s a major part of the business. It costs two to three grand for us to take a trip somewhere, and it’s already tight, but if we’re restricted in any way from doing live, that’s a blow because it brings in a significant amount of our revenue (which we need to then fund future in-the-field reporting trips).

    TK: What happened in Virginia to affect your decision-making about live content going forward?

    JC: I had to tell my cameraman not to go live… They’ve already shown they’re willing to take down some outlets entirely, without warning. The email YouTube sent me, I felt they could consider that a warning, and the next time, they could either give us a copyright strike, or remove us. I just can’t afford to take that risk.

    TK: Do you see this as part of a wider effort to close informational loopholes at these platforms?

    JC: It’s already documented that YouTube has been hiding independent channels in a cave, while elevating “authoritative” channels like — according to YouTube — CNN and Fox News. That’s Silicon Valley basically just saying outright, “We’re elevating some sources at the expense of others…” Unless you’re a major outlet that has a line to YouTube, you don’t have any way of clearing up these episodes. It’s easier to talk to someone at the CIA than it is to actually reach a human being at YouTube.

    TK: What are the implications of an incident like this for alternative media?

    JC: First of all, it’s worth pointing out, the only reason my content was restored is that I threw a shit-fit on Twitter, and people like Krystal Ball and Ryan Grim complained. But people like Andrew Kimmel did not have their content restored, proving there’s basically no rhyme or reason to this. It’s arbitrary. We’ve come to a place where you’d almost have to clear your decisions with YouTube ahead of time to feel completely safe.

    I understand, there must be some limits. If someone like Alex Jones is saying, “Go get your guns, get out there,” that’s really dangerous.

    But this, this is beyond a slippery slope. It’s a cliff. If they start pulling live streams or issuing strikes like this, it’s basically a death sentence for outlets like ours.

    Subscribe to TK News here.

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 21:30

  • Dr. Fauci Wrong Again: Novavax Vaccine Only 50% Effective Against "Mutant" South African COVID Strain
    Dr. Fauci Wrong Again: Novavax Vaccine Only 50% Effective Against “Mutant” South African COVID Strain

    The latest COVID-19 vaccine news is unequivocally disappointing.

    Novavax, one of six US companies that received hundreds of millions of dollars upfront from the US government to develop a COVIID-19 vaccine, has just released preliminary data from its Phase 3 trials. The data showed the vaccine was 89.3% effective in the UK branch of the trial.

    Vaccine trials were held in nearly half a dozen countries, but in the UK, 62 people (out of roughly 15K) came down with COVID-19 symptoms after receiving either the vaccine or a placebo. Of these, six had received the vaccine, while 56 had gotten the placebo.

    Yet, in a separate, middle-stage study in South Africa, the trial data suggested the vaccine was much less effective. In South Africa, the Novavax shot was about 49.4% effective against Covid-19 in the study. Preliminary results showed that more than 90% of the sick subjects for whom sequencing data were available were infected with the new variant circulating in South Africa.

    The news comes at an inopportune time: A few hours ago, the CDC revealed that the first two confirmed cases of the hyper-infectious South African COVID mutation had been confirmed in South Carolina.

    In a separate Novavax trial held in South Africa, the efficacy was significantly lower. In a small trial the rate of protection was just 50%. Almost all the cases that scientists have analyzed there so far were caused by the mutated strain, known as B.1.351.

    What’s even more disturbing: The data also showed that many trial participants were infected with the variant even after they had already had COVID-19.

    Novavax tried to put a bright spin on the results.

    “We have the first trial — we are the first to conduct an efficacy trial — in the face of a changing virus,” said Stanley Erck, the president and chief executive of Novavax. He said that researchers expected the variants could change the trial results, but “the amount of change has been a bit of a surprise to everyone.”

    However, there’s no denying the fact that scientists like Dr. Anthony Fauci who repeatedly claimed that the vaccines would provide enduring protection despite mutations of the virus were clearly exaggerating their level of certainty. But that’s not the first time the data has gone against “the science”.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 21:10

  • Silicon Valley Joins Push To Recall Newsom As New Candidates Eye Gubernatorial Bids
    Silicon Valley Joins Push To Recall Newsom As New Candidates Eye Gubernatorial Bids

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    A group of technology investors and executives has joined the push to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom, as one investor announced a gubernatorial bid.

    Chamath Palihapitiya, the CEO of Social Capitol and a former Facebook executive, said in a tweet this week that he is running for governor as he used a hashtag for the campaign to remove Newsom.

    “It’s on,” he wrote.

    “California is a mess – it’s too expensive, our teachers are underpaid, and our schools aren’t good enough,” his campaign website says.

    The site says the longtime Democratic donor would cut taxes to zero percent, give teachers a minimum salary of $70,000, and will dole out $2,000 for every new child born in the state.

    As the campaign to recall Newsom gathers more and more signatures, it has attracted more and more supporters—including previous supporters of the governor.

    David Sacks, founder of the Craft Ventures fund, donated $60,000 to Newsom’s successful 2018 bid. But he came out Tuesday in support of Palihapitiya, who he described as a centrist Democrat, telling Bloomberg that Newsom “is totally beholden to special interests.”

    Kevin Faulconer, the former Republican mayor of San Diego, is also mulling a bid. He signed the recall campaign shortly after the New Year, writing on Facebook that “it’s time to start holding the governor accountable.”

    Recall Gavin 2020 initially drew scoffs but has proven immensely popular, drawing nearly 1.3 million signatures as of this week. That’s 77 percent of the number required to put removing Newsom to voters on an upcoming ballot.

    Campaign organizers alleged that Newsom lifting the harsh stay-at-home order on Monday was done to try to “maintain what grasp he still holds on the state.”

    “He knows he’s in trouble. It was a reckless choice; he made it by the seat of his pants, and now he’s going to get criticized for it,” Anne Hyde Dunsmore, the campaign manager for the recall effort, told The Epoch Times.

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom walks to a press conference at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif., on Jan. 15, 2021. (Irfan Khan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

    Asked about the notion during a briefing, Newsom said it was “complete utter nonsense.”

    Officials asserted they lifted the order because of metrics linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, with projections showing a continued decrease in positive cases. COVID-19 is the disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus.

    Critics say Newsom, in his first term, bungled the CCP virus response. California has the most positive cases in the United States. They also point to his going out to eat in a crowded, indoor room while urging residents not to do so—news of the dinner leaked out later, prompting an apology.

    A spokesman for Newsom has told news outlets that the campaign is a waste of money and that the governor would “rather focus on getting through the homestretch of the pandemic.”

    There’s a model to recalling a governor in California. Gray Davis, a Democrat, was recalled in 2003. The campaign to oust him received strong financial support from Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), who warned Newsom last month to take the current effort seriously.

    Recall Newsom is getting donations from Silicon Valley. Patricia Perkins-Leone donated $99,800 last month, according to state records. She is the wife of Doug Leone, managing partner of the Sequoia Capital fund. Additionally, Dixon Doll and his wife, Carol, have given nearly $192,000. Doll is also a venture capitalist.

    Other large donors include the Prov. 3:9 LLC, construction company owners Susan and Howard Groff, and the California Revival political action committee.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 20:50

  • Masayoshi Son Rewards Top Execs With Massive Loans To Help Pump SoftBank Shares
    Masayoshi Son Rewards Top Execs With Massive Loans To Help Pump SoftBank Shares

    With retail traders asserting their dominance over equity markets in a way the world hasn’t seen before (thanks to Wall Street Bets and its legions of rabid users hell-bent on punching hedge-fund shorts in the nose by taking GME to the moon), it’s worth looking back on an incident – which only unfolded few months ago – where Zero Hedge called out SoftBank for using an options-trading strategy that was partly responsible for driving huge gains in the Nasdaq (which, in turn, bolstered SoftBank’s bottom line) (and, in turn, bolstering both SoftBank and many of its top positions).

    SoftBank ended up making billions via what we termed “the biggest gamma squeeze” in history. But now that a similar squeeze has made GME the markets story of the year, and retail traders are once again taking over the market, SoftBank has shared another piece of the puzzle in its annual report.

    As the FT reports thanks to an incentive package that was approved a year ago (last February), four top SoftBank executives are sitting on a collective gain that could be as large as $1.2BN after they were each loaned hundreds of millions of dollars to buy the company’s (fast-rising) shares.

    Last year, SoftBank granted a total of $600MM in loans to four top executives: Rajeev Misra, head of SoftBank’s infamous Vision Fund, Marcelo Claure, currently the head of SoftBank Group International, Katsunori Sago, SoftBank’s chief strategy officer, and Ken Miyauchi, recently promoted to president and CEO (Nikkei targeted Miyauchi in a glowing profile published Thursday).

    Since then, three of these men (including, most famously, Misra) have stepped down from SoftBank’s board, alleviating the company of the responsibility for disclosing these compensation schemes. As one “expert” pointed out, not only is it unusual (if perhaps not illegal) for a company to refuse to disclose these compensation packages, in Japan, hefty executive pay packages are frowned upon, which is one reason why SoftBank might not want to reveal them.

    At any rate, the FT let the cat out of the bag. And now SoftBank (and its Chairman Masayoshi Son) has once again been caught with its hand in the cookie jar.

    The three men’s departure from the SoftBank board may mean that SoftBank will no longer be required to disclose fully their compensation and borrowings from the company to buy shares. One person said SoftBank is discussing whether to keep the same disclosures levels to reassure investors.

    “This kind of incentive scheme is extremely rare for Japanese companies,” said Katsuyuki Kubo, a corporate governance expert at Waseda University. “While there is no legal obligation, ideally from a governance perspective, incentives for top executives who are actively involved in running the company should be disclosed since the information is important for investors.” Mr Son has essentially backstopped his company’s potential losses on the loans to his lieutenants, with a footnote in the report explaining that the SoftBank founder had guaranteed any “shortfall” between the value of the collateral and the loan. 

    This isn’t the first time Son has used SoftBank shares to reward executives or founders.

    The 63-year-old SoftBank chief executive has provided similar support in the past. In 2019, Mr Son personally guaranteed $2bn of loans taken out by the then 25-year-old founder of Oyo, an Indian hotel business backed by the Vision Fund.  One asset manager, whose fund holds a significant stake in SoftBank, said that investors were now probably used to the idea that Mr Son likes senior staff to be both leveraged and incentivised through large holdings of SoftBank stock.  “But what we are seeing now seems to be taking that to the extreme. It adds into the picture of a company that is basically one guy calling every single shot, and your choice whether to take whatever risks come with that,” said the investor.

    But the great pains that Masayoshi Son took to disguise the loans suggest that something untoward might be afoot.

    Two of these executives, Misra and Claure, already rank among the top paid executives in Japan earning $15MM and $19.6MM last year (sums that are unusually high in Japan.

    Depending on when they exit the position, the men could be sitting on gains of anywhere between $300MM and $1.2BN. Now, some institutional investors are telling the FT that these loans have aroused their suspicions, and that they fear that the departure of Misra and two of the other four men from the SoftBank board late this past year might have been engineered to keep these loans in the dark.

    While trying to keep top talent on board in the wake of the 2019 WeWork disaster, did Masayoshi Son create another mess while trying to clean up an earlier one?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 20:30

  • 6 State Attorneys General Warn Biden Over Potential Presidential Overreach
    6 State Attorneys General Warn Biden Over Potential Presidential Overreach

    Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times,

    A coalition of state attorneys general on Wednesday sent a letter to President Joe Biden reminding him that any potentially unconstitutional executive actions or federal overreach will not go unchallenged.

    The letter, signed by six attorneys general (AGs), puts the Biden administration on notice that any actions that might exceed their statutory authority, are inconsistent with constitutional tenets, or place civil liberties at risk could trigger legal action by the states.

    “We stand ready to meet with your administration to discuss more how the issues below affect our States; litigation is never first option, and we would like to help your team in its important job on behalf of all Americans, consistent with the Constitution and the rule of law,” West Virginia AG Patrick Morrisey, who is leading the group, wrote in the letter addressed to the White House (pdf).

    Yet if you sign unconstitutional laws passed by Congress, it will be our responsibility and duty to challenge those laws in court. If cabinet officials, executive officers, and agencies go beyond the bounds of their statutory authority, fail to follow legally required procedures, or fall short of the bedrock Administrative Procedure Act obligation of reasoned decision making, it will likewise be our responsibility to take action.”

    The Administrative Procedure Act, or APA, is a federal law that governs the process for agency rulemaking and has been frequently invoked to challenge executive branch rules and regulations.

    Morrisey is joined by AGs from Arkansas, Indiana, Mississippi, Montana, and Texas.

    It comes as Biden issued a series of executive orders in his first week since taking office. Some of the executive orders have overturned Trump-era policies, while others have established or expanded policies relating to climate change, racial equity, and the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic.

    Some of the orders have already drawn widespread scrutiny, such as the decisions to rejoin the Paris Climate agreement and to cancel the Keystone XL Pipeline, which is expected to put thousands of jobs at risk and undermine the U.S. relationship with Canada. The Biden admin has also met with backlash for embracing a quasi-Marxist critical race theory in its policies seeking to prioritize certain racial groups that have historically met with disadvantage over others.

    Similarly, Biden’s order addressing discrimination on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation is expected to threaten the constitutional freedom to exercise one’s religious beliefs for individuals and organizations who affirm the traditional understanding of human persons as created biologically male and female.

    “The President cannot cut constitutional corners or shirk statutory strictures without inevitably doing more harm to our country than good,” the AGs wrote.

    “The foundations of our republic and American life are embedded within our Constitution’s carefully crafted design.

    “Accordingly, today by this letter we respectfully urge you when pursuing your policy priorities to honor the core constitutional tenets which should be appreciated and respected by every person entrusted with the honor and burdens of the presidency,” they wrote to Biden.

    The letter notes the freedom of religion and religious expression, and the right to bear arms as two areas of concern.

    The AGs said that while there is always pressure for U.S. presidents and Congress to exceed their power “lest they be judged to be ignoring important issues or failing to address critical problems,” it is a president’s duty to uphold the U.S. Constitution’s separation of powers as well as respect the sovereignty of the states.

    They added that limits on federal power are not a flaw of the Constitution and that when certain issues that are excluded from the federal sphere need to be addressed, the “states are ready and able to do the job.”

    The Biden administration has already faced several legal challenges over its executive actions. A federal judge in Texas temporarily blocked Biden’s executive order to halt the deportation of certain immigrants for 100 days. The order is seen as a setback for the administration, which had campaigned on implementing far-reaching immigration changes, including a plan that would legalize about 11 million illegal immigrants.

    Earlier on Wednesday, Western Energy Alliance, a group representing fossil fuel producers on federal lands, challenged Biden’s executive order aimed at halting oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters.

    Legal challenges against presidential orders are not uncommon. During former President Donald Trump’s four years in office, Democrat AGs frequently sued his administration on a range of executive actions and regulations in the area including health, climate, and immigration.

    According to a website run by Dr. Paul Nolette, associate professor of political science at Marquette University, who tracked the lawsuits against the former president, the Trump administration was sued 157 times in cases where states were initial plaintiffs, successful intervenors, or in single state lawsuits.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 20:10

  • JPMorgan Has Some Bad News For Hedge Funds Hoping The Nightmare Ends Soon
    JPMorgan Has Some Bad News For Hedge Funds Hoping The Nightmare Ends Soon

    For a few hours this morning it seemed that all was lost for r/WallStreetBets and their crusade to teach Wall Street billionaires a lesson, when one exchange after another banned buying in the most-shorted stocks, an unprecedented unilateral decision made by brokerages (one of which, Robinhood, is effectively joined at the hip with hedge fund Citadel, which in turn is a part owner of Melvin Capital which was destroyed by the short squeeze that Robinhood banned, so a clear conflict of interest), and one which sent GME stock as low as $112 after trading at $500 just hours earlier.

    However the hedge funds short Gamestop, who may have declared victory prematurely, had to put the champagne back on ice because just after the close, amid tremendous pushback from clients, Congress, and the public – not to mention what appears to be a liquidity crisis as millions of accounts bailed – Robinhood announced it would allow buying to resume on Friday, sending the stock up almost double after hours.

    And since any victory for the WallStreetBets crowd means the short squeeze is back, it also means that a defeat for hedge funds, as can be seen in the chart below which shows that the Goldman most shorted basket is a mirror image of the Goldman hedge fund VIP basket.

    In other words, any expectation that the WSB crowd would be finally crushed today and the hedge fund world would return to normalcy was crushed.

    But what happens next, and how does it all end?

    Last night we speculated that if indeed there are more shorts – both synthetically or otherwise – than available shares, then the only place bearish hedge funds will be get shares to cover their shorts is from the company itself. Which means that Gamestop can theoretically ask for any price (somewhat reasonable) and hedge funds will have to agree. After all, it’s not GME’s fault that hedge funds were so greedy they overshorted the company, which really is what all this boils down to.

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    Of course, that is a bit of an idealistic take, one where hedge funds finally are forced to pay for their stupidity. Alas, in a country as corrupt as this one, that’s unlikely to ever happen. Still, that doesn’t change the fact that the answer suddenly matters extremely.

    In fact, as JPM’s Andrew Tyler writes in his EOD market intelligence note, “Are we there yet” -i.e., is the squeeze over –  is “the biggest question and hardest to answer definitively.”

    Here is his take.

    • POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE: The team published a new note, Tactical Takes | De-Grossing Accelerates – 1-Day Magnitude in Line with Last March, but Medium Trend Not There Yet
      • Summary of what we saw yesterday:
      • Globally, yesterday was a >3z (i.e. standard deviation) de-gross day with vastmajority (80%) happening in US, but did see it in EMEA (about 2z) and APAC(~1z).
      • Equity L/S funds were the main ones reducing exposure in the US – for perspective, Tues was a -3z de-gross day and Wed was about 2x that.
      • Quants were de-grossing DoD as well, but magnitudes were more in line with Tues, which was a 1z event.
      • Despite all the recent Active de-grossing, gross and net $ exposure are relativelyunchanged YTD (because market still up in some parts, e.g. small caps, and HighSI names up a lot).
      • For the US High SI names, yesterday appeared to be a ~5z covering event
        • Notionally, because these stocks have rallied so much, the SMV is barelydown YTD, but the magnitude of the active covering over the past fewweeks appears to be nearly in line with what we saw last March.
      • Performance on Wed was worst of past 3 days with long-short spread nearlydouble the worst days in March ’20 for L/S funds (long-short spread for Quants andMulti-Strats was quite negative as well).
    • Are we there yet? (the biggest question and hardest to answer definitively)
      • On the short side, the magnitude of covering in the High SI stocks would suggest it is closer to the end, but it is not clear that this holds true more broadly.
      • The bigger risk seems to be whether the recent long selling that started in earnest this week has to persist for a while longer.
      • Put together, in N. America, the 4wk active de-grossing has NOT yet reached even a 1z event and not nearly where things got to last March/April or in prior periods of strong de-grossing.
      • Furthermore, with notional exposures effectively still near highs (and performance negative), it’s likely that gross leverage has gone up for many funds.
      • With all this said, the fact that this is NOT occurring due to a broader weakening in the macro backdrop makes it harder to gauge how much further this should go.

    In short, expect much more pain. No surprise there. What we find shocking however is that just yesterday another JPMorganite, Marko Kolanovic published a note urging clients to do just the opposite, BTFD, claiming that the WSB fiasco would be over soon and won’t have any material impacts. In retrospect, we now know which report was meant for the “good” clients, and which was one the mindless fodder meant for general consumption.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 19:48

  • How To Survive "Cancel Culture" When You Have Unpopular Opinions
    How To Survive “Cancel Culture” When You Have Unpopular Opinions

    Authored by Terry Trahan via TheOrganicPrepper.com,

    Well, hello there. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but we live in a vastly different world than the last time I posted here. The social landscape, political, and, it seems, everyday life is trending vastly different since 2020, Covid, and the national elections.

    Daisy recently sent out an email explaining the shift away from discussing politics in light of cancel culture and the like. I want to expand on those thoughts, but from an underground, guerrilla angle.

    A huge part of survival, prepping, and Nomad Strategies is getting done what needs to be done with minimal interference or notice from those around us. The more eyes on your project, the more people that can foul up our plans, throw a wrench in the works, or, nowadays, ruin your life.

    Have a secret identity.

    So, we turn to lesson number one from the great bastion of literature: comic books.

    What does almost every comic character have? A secret identity. And why? So they are not having to fight, protect their family, and hide from the public all the time. That is a mighty wise course of action. Life is not a movie. There are rarely times to take a bold, public stand that will put you or your people in danger.

    It is a blessing to live in the time and place we do that enables us to engage in such vociferous debate levels with no real consequences. That is not the norm throughout history, and, as we can see, it is changing in front of our eyes. All one needs to do is look at the world outside of the U.S. for current or very recent historical examples. Take a look at where Selco comes from or Belfast just a couple of decades ago. Look at many areas of the Middle East, Syria, or Asia for current displays of enforcement. 

    You don’t have to share your opinions with everyone.

    Keeping a low profile as long as possible is a crucial OpSec practice.

    Note: I am not saying you are not allowed to have opinions. But, I am a firm believer in only discussing them with known associates in private. It is also easier to keep seeing the other party as still human if you do it in person. *Othering is a nasty thing to do and nastier to be on the receiving end of. Remembering that the other side is not the devil incarnate helps to identify actual enemies easier. Instead of jumping at every boogyman brought to your attention, save your energy for real, in your face threats.

    *The term Othering describes the reductive action of labeling and defining a person as a subaltern native, as someone who belongs to the socially subordinate category of the Other. 

    Choose your battles wisely, or don’t battle at all

    Another reason for concentrating on the mission: it’s a waste of your time. Leave the arguing and name-calling to others. Arguing lessens your productivity and may alienate potential allies that could assist you. (Except for those pesky Facebook posts you made, calling their kind evil and stupid.) Choosing not to participate in arguments and debates shows that you have mental toughness, compassion, discernment, and, most importantly, self-control.

    In case you aren’t aware, those and your integrity are essential things to keep intact. Both for our own well being and for cultivating good, successful relationships. Keep your ego intact, and if you can exercise the self-control required to not argue points with others that don’t matter in the day-to-day. 

    You will be more peaceful. 

    Fewer distractions = more time to work on numero uno

    As Toby Cowern’s recent article asks: Are You Maintaining the Most Vital Resources in Your Preppertoire? And what is that resource? YOU. Are you making sure that self-care is the most important part of your prepping plans? 

    We want to give ourselves as much time as possible to work on various aspects of ourselves that need the work.

    Distractions from this can be costly. It can be costly in terms of time wasted on a needless post, and at its worst, it can literally cost you everything you have worked for and built up.

    Stop throwing chum to the internet sharks.

    An important but often overlooked aspect of any successful underground work is the ability to escape notice. Therefore escaping issues that will negatively impact your ability to move forward will help you complete whatever the mission at hand is.

    Rather than willingly compromising your future, stop engaging with the sharks. Instead of spending time engaged in activities that are not beneficial, use your time wisely. Allocate the majority of your time to doing the work. Use your downtime to recharge, find the good, relax, and keep your eyes on the prize.

    There may be a time in the near future where we must elevate to a more offensive posture. But now is not that time. What we do now is an important step in keeping us more even-keeled and ready. Don’t volunteer yourself for the enemies list. There are already plenty of people that will gladly put some of us there.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 19:30

  • Dallas DEA Makes Largest-Ever Meth Bust In North Texas 
    Dallas DEA Makes Largest-Ever Meth Bust In North Texas 

    The Drug Enforcement Administration’s (DEA) Dallas field division reported this week the largest methamphetamine seizure ever in North Texas, according to local news WFAA

    DEA agents seized 1,950 pounds of meth, valued at $45 million, hidden within the bed of a refrigerated tractor-trailer off Interstate 35 in Denton County. A detection dog or sniffer dog pinpointed the large stash during a traffic stop, amounting to 663 packages. 

    “It’s a staggering amount to be seized at one time,” said Eduardo Chavez, the Special Agent in Charge for DEA Dallas. “They were like sausage links.”

    The bust was equivalent to 20% of the total amount the Dallas field division seized in 2020. 

    “I see a lot of lives saved when we can stack up kilograms of drugs like this on a table,” Chavez said. “Unfortunately, methamphetamine is one of the largest threats in North Texas, so we would anticipate that a lot of it was destined for the market here.”

    Chavez said the drugs were likely intended for black markets in St. Louis, Chicago, and Atlanta. The DEA believes the drugs belonged to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel headed by Nemesio Oseguera-Cervantes, otherwise known as “El Mencho.” 

    “No doubt, this got his (El Mencho) attention. A seizure like this, he most likely got a phone call,” Chavez said. “We take one of these seizures and try to expand the network, try to identify perhaps what other ones have gotten through.”

    During the pandemic, the Trump administration cracked down on drug traffickers along a ‘meth superhighway’ controlled by Mexican cartels that stretched across the U.S. A six-month operation by the federal government seized thousands of pounds of meth, tens of millions of dollars, and hundreds of firearms. 

    During the pandemic, meth inflation surged from $4,000 in March to nearly $16,000 by May. 

    Meanwhile, deaths related to meth-overdoses have surged across the country, especially among Blacks and American Indians/Alaska Natives.

    “While much attention is focused on the opioid crisis, a methamphetamine crisis has been quietly, but actively, gaining steam — particularly among American Indians and Alaska Natives, who are disproportionately affected by a number of health conditions,” said Dr. Nora Volkow, director of the U.S. National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA).

    The Trump administration made a concerted effort among federal, state, and local leaders to combat drug traffickers and criminal cartels for violating U.S. sovereignty via breaching the southern border. However, it remains to be seen if the Biden administration will continue such policies.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 19:23

  • Sri Lanka's Stock Market Is Up 30% In 2021 And Has Doubled From Its 2020 Lows
    Sri Lanka’s Stock Market Is Up 30% In 2021 And Has Doubled From Its 2020 Lows

    While attention in the U.S. may be focused on the ongoing short squeezes in a few select names, the Sri Lankan stock market – as a whole – isn’t far behind.

    Stocks in Sri Lanka have returned a “world beating” 30% so far this year, Bloomberg noted on Wednesday. The returns are eye popping, especially given that we are only 28 days into the new year.

    Traders in Sri Lanka have bought $802 million worth of equities this month, the report notes, which is 45% of last year’s total domestic purchases. The domestic inflows come as many overseas investors leave the market, selling a net $25 million in shares in January. In 2020, overseas investors had outflows of $273 million. 

    Joshua Crabb, a Hong Kong-based money manager, told Bloomberg: “As the pandemic rebound got underway, abundance of global liquidity, substantial rate cuts and domestic retail participation have helped fuel the rally. Keep in mind the currency has also weakened, which makes exports more competitive, encourages tourism and introduces inflation, which helps nominal assets like equities.”

    The country’s Colombo Stock Exchange All Share Index tumbled in March 2019 with global markets as a result of the global pandemic and localized political uncertainty. But the country’s central bank cut its key rate by 200 basis points and has provided liquidity, prompting the nation’s market to scream higher.

    The market has doubled off of its lows and the country has now even re-opened some of its airports for international tourism again. The country also recently approved the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid vaccine for emergency use, providing another tailwind for the market heading into the Spring.

    Crabb concluded: “In the near term, I would expect the market to consolidate its gains. At current valuations, we really need to see an improvement in the economy and in company earnings to see another leg up.”
     

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 19:10

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Today’s News 28th January 2021

  • Whitehead: Enemies Of The Deep State – The Government's War On Domestic Terrorism Is A Trap
    Whitehead: Enemies Of The Deep State – The Government’s War On Domestic Terrorism Is A Trap

    Authored by John Whitehead and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    This is an issue that all Democrats, Republicans, independents, Libertarians should be extremely concerned about, especially because we don’t have to guess about where this goes or how this ends. What characteristics are we looking for as we are building this profile of a potential extremist, what are we talking about? Religious extremists, are we talking about Christians, evangelical Christians, what is a religious extremist? Is it somebody who is pro-life? [The proposed legislation could create] a very dangerous undermining of our civil liberties, our freedoms in our Constitution, and a targeting of almost half of the country.

    – Tulsi Gabbard, former Congresswoman

    This is how it begins.

    We are moving fast down that slippery slope to an authoritarian society in which the only opinions, ideas and speech expressed are the ones permitted by the government and its corporate cohorts.

    In the wake of the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol, “domestic terrorism” has become the new poster child for expanding the government’s powers at the expense of civil liberties.

    Of course, “domestic terrorist” is just the latest bull’s eye phrase, to be used interchangeably with “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist,” to describe anyone who might fall somewhere on a very broad spectrum of viewpoints that could be considered “dangerous.”

    Watch and see: we are all about to become enemies of the state.

    In a déjà vu mirroring of the legislative fall-out from 9/11, and the ensuing build-up of the security state, there is a growing demand in certain sectors for the government to be given expanded powers to root out “domestic” terrorism, the Constitution be damned.

    If this is a test of Joe Biden’s worthiness to head up the American police state, he seems ready.

    As part of his inaugural address, President Biden pledged to confront and defeat “a rise of political extremism, white supremacy, domestic terrorism.” Biden has also asked the Director of National Intelligence to work with the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security in carrying out a “comprehensive threat assessment” of domestic terrorism. And then to keep the parallels going, there is the proposed Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2021, introduced after the Jan. 6 riots, which aims to equip the government with “the tools to identify, monitor and thwart” those who could become radicalized to violence.

    Don’t blink or you’ll miss the sleight of hand.

    This is the tricky part of the Deep State’s con game that keeps you focused on the shell game in front of you while your wallet is being picked clean by ruffians in your midst.

    It follows the same pattern as every other convenient “crisis” used by the government as an excuse to expand its powers at the citizenry’s expense and at the expense of our freedoms.

    As investigative journalist Glenn Greenwald warns:

    “The last two weeks have ushered in a wave of new domestic police powers and rhetoric in the name of fighting ‘terrorism’ that are carbon copies of many of the worst excesses of the first War on Terror that began nearly twenty years ago. This New War on Terror—one that is domestic in name from the start and carries the explicit purpose of fighting ‘extremists’ and ‘domestic terrorists’ among American citizens on U.S. soil—presents the whole slew of historically familiar dangers when governments, exploiting media-generated fear and dangers, arm themselves with the power to control information, debate, opinion, activism and protests.

    Greenwald is referring to the USA Patriot Act, passed almost 20 years ago, which paved the way for the eradication of every vital safeguard against government overreach, corruption and abuse.

    Free speech, the right to protest, the right to challenge government wrongdoing, due process, a presumption of innocence, the right to self-defense, accountability and transparency in government, privacy, press, sovereignty, assembly, bodily integrity, representative government: all of these and more have become casualties in the government’s war on the American people, a war that has grown more pronounced since Sept. 11, 2001.

    Some members of Congress get it.

    In a letter opposing expansion of national security powers, a handful congressional representatives urged their colleagues not to repeat the mistakes of the past:

    “While many may find comfort in increased national security powers in the wake of this attack, we must emphasize that we have been here before and we have seen where that road leads. Our history is littered with examples of initiatives sold as being necessary to fight extremism that quickly devolve into tools used for the mass violation of the human and civil rights of the American people… To expand the government’s national security powers once again at the expense of the human and civil rights of the American people would only serve to further undermine our democracy, not protect it.”

    Cue the Emergency State, the government’s Machiavellian version of crisis management that justifies all manner of government tyranny in the so-called name of national security.

    This is the power grab hiding in plain sight, obscured by the political machinations of the self-righteous elite. This is how the government continues to exploit crises and use them as opportunities for power grabs under the guise of national security. Indeed, this is exactly how the government added red flag gun laws, precrime surveillance, fusion centers, threat assessments, mental health assessments, involuntary confinement to its arsenal of weaponized powers.

    The objective is not to make America safe again. That has never been the government’s aim.

    Greenwald explains:

    “Why would such new terrorism laws be needed in a country that already imprisons more of its citizens than any other country in the world as the result of a very aggressive set of criminal laws? What acts should be criminalized by new ‘domestic terrorism’ laws that are not already deemed criminal? They never say, almost certainly because—just as was true of the first set of new War on Terror laws—their real aim is to criminalize that which should not be criminalized: speech, association, protests, opposition to the new ruling coalition.”

    So you see, the issue is not whether Donald Trump or Roger Stone or MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell deserve to be banned from Twitter, even if they’re believed to be spouting misinformation, hateful ideas, or fomenting discontent.

    Rather, we should be asking whether any corporation or government agency or entity representing a fusion of the two should have the power to muzzle, silence, censor, regulate, control and altogether eradicate so-called “dangerous” or “extremist” ideas.

    This unilateral power to muzzle free speech represents a far greater danger than any so-called right- or left-wing extremist might pose.

    The ramifications are so far-reaching as to render almost every American an extremist in word, deed, thought or by association.

    Yet where many go wrong is in assuming that you have to be doing something illegal or challenging the government’s authority in order to be flagged as a suspicious character, labeled an enemy of the state and locked up like a dangerous criminal.

    Eventually, all you will really need to do is use certain trigger words, surf the internet, communicate using a cell phone, drive a car, stay at a hotel, purchase materials at a hardware store, take flying or boating lessons, appear suspicious, question government authority, or generally live in the United States.

    The groundwork has already been laid.

    The trap is set.

    All that is needed is the right bait.

    With the help of automated eyes and ears, a growing arsenal of high-tech software, hardware and techniques, government propaganda urging Americans to turn into spies and snitches, as well as social media and behavior sensing software, government agents have been busily spinning a sticky spider-web of threat assessments, behavioral sensing warnings, flagged “words,” and “suspicious” activity reports aimed at snaring potential enemies of the state.

    It’s the American police state’s take on the dystopian terrors foreshadowed by George Orwell, Aldous Huxley and Phillip K. Dick all rolled up into one oppressive pre-crime and pre-thought crime package.

    What’s more, the technocrats who run the surveillance state don’t even have to break a sweat while monitoring what you say, what you read, what you write, where you go, how much you spend, whom you support, and with whom you communicate. Computers by way of AI (artificial intelligence) now do the tedious work of trolling social media, the internet, text messages and phone calls for potentially anti-government remarks, all of which is carefully recorded, documented, and stored to be used against you someday at a time and place of the government’s choosing.

    For instance, police in major American cities have been using predictive policing technology that allows them to identify individuals—or groups of individuals—most likely to commit a crime in a given community. Those individuals are then put on notice that their movements and activities will be closely monitored and any criminal activity (by them or their associates) will result in harsh penalties. 

    In other words, the burden of proof is reversed: you are guilty before you are given any chance to prove you are innocent.

    Dig beneath the surface of this kind of surveillance/police state, however, and you will find that the real purpose of pre-crime is not safety but control.

    Red flag gun laws merely push us that much closer towards a suspect society where everyone is potentially guilty of some crime or another and must be preemptively rendered harmless.

    This is the same government that has a growing list—shared with fusion centers and law enforcement agencies—of ideologies, behaviors, affiliations and other characteristics that could flag someone as suspicious and result in their being labeled potential enemies of the state.

    For instance, if you believe in and exercise your rights under the Constitution (namely, your right to speak freely, worship freely, associate with like-minded individuals who share your political views, criticize the government, own a weapon, demand a warrant before being questioned or searched, or any other activity viewed as potentially anti-government, racist, bigoted, anarchic or sovereign), you could be at the top of the government’s terrorism watch list.

    Moreover, as a New York Times editorial warns, you may be an anti-government extremist (a.k.a. domestic terrorist) in the eyes of the police if you are afraid that the government is plotting to confiscate your firearms, if you believe the economy is about to collapse and the government will soon declare martial law, or if you display an unusual number of political and/or ideological bumper stickers on your car.

    According to one FBI latest report, you might also be classified as a domestic terrorism threat if you espouse conspiracy theories, especially if you “attempt to explain events or circumstances as the result of a group of actors working in secret to benefit themselves at the expense of others” and are “usually at odds with official or prevailing explanations of events.”

    Additionally, according to Michael C. McGarrity, the FBI’s assistant director of the counterterrorism division, the bureau now “classifies domestic terrorism threats into four main categories: racially motivated violent extremism, anti-government/anti-authority extremism, animal rights/environmental extremism, and abortion extremism.”

    In other words, if you dare to subscribe to any views that are contrary to the government’s, you may well be suspected of being a domestic terrorist and treated accordingly.

    Again, where many Americans go wrong is in naively assuming that you have to be doing something illegal or harmful in order to be flagged and targeted for some form of intervention or detention.

    In fact, U.S. police agencies have been working to identify and manage potential extremist “threats,” violent or otherwise, before they can become actual threats for some time now.

    In much the same way that the USA Patriot Act was used as a front to advance the surveillance state, allowing the government to establish a far-reaching domestic spying program that turned every American citizen into a criminal suspect, the government’s anti-extremism program renders otherwise lawful, nonviolent activities as potentially extremist.

    In fact, all you need to do these days to end up on a government watch list or be subjected to heightened scrutiny is use certain trigger words (like cloud, pork and pirates), surf the internet, communicate using a cell phone, limp or stutterdrive a car, stay at a hotel, attend a political rally, express yourself on social mediaappear mentally ill, serve in the militarydisagree with a law enforcement officialcall in sick to work, purchase materials at a hardware store, take flying or boating lessons, appear suspicious, appear confused or nervous, fidget or whistle or smell bad, be seen in public waving a toy gun or anything remotely resembling a gun (such as a water nozzle or a remote control or a walking cane), stare at a police officer, question government authority, or appear to be pro-gun or pro-freedom.

    Be warned: once you get on such a government watch list—whether it’s a terrorist watch list, a mental health watch list, a dissident watch list, or a red flag gun watch list—there’s no clear-cut way to get off, whether or not you should actually be on there.

    You will be tracked wherever you go.

    You will be flagged as a potential threat and dealt with accordingly.

    This is pre-crime on an ideological scale and it’s been a long time coming.

    The government has been building its pre-crime, surveillance network in concert with fusion centers (of which there are 78 nationwide, with partners in the corporate sector and globally), data collection agencies, behavioral scientists, corporations, social media, and community organizers and by relying on cutting-edge technology for surveillance, facial recognition, predictive policing, biometrics, and behavioral epigenetics (in which life experiences alter one’s genetic makeup).

    If you’re not scared yet, you should be.

    Connect the dots.

    Start with the powers amassed by the government under the USA Patriot Act, note the government’s ever-broadening definition of what it considers to be an “extremist,” then add in the government’s detention powers under NDAA, the National Security Agency’s far-reaching surveillance networks, and fusion centers that collect and share surveillance data between local, state and federal police agencies.

    To that, add tens of thousands of armed, surveillance drones and balloons that are beginning to blanket American skies, facial recognition technology that will identify and track you wherever you go and whatever you do. And then to complete the picture, toss in the real-time crime centers being deployed in cities across the country, which will be attempting to “predict” crimes and identify so-called criminals before they happen based on widespread surveillance, complex mathematical algorithms and prognostication programs.

    Hopefully you’re starting to understand how easy we’ve made it for the government to identify, label, target, defuse and detain anyone it views as a potential threat for a variety of reasons that run the gamut from mental illness to having a military background to challenging its authority to just being on the government’s list of persona non grata.

    There’s always a price to pay for standing up to the powers-that-be.

    Yet as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, you don’t even have to be a dissident to get flagged by the government for surveillance, censorship and detention.

    All you really need to be is a citizen of the American police state.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/28/2021 – 00:00

  • We Have Some Bad News For Gamestop Shorts
    We Have Some Bad News For Gamestop Shorts

    We have some bad news for GME shorts.

    Despite the posturing that this or that hedge fund has covered its Gamestop exposure, new shorts have simply taken their place, and as Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of S3 Partners which provides daily short interest tracking in real-time notes, the short interest – after all the recent fireworks – is still a whopping 139.7%…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … which is actually the highest print in the past few days!

    Source: S3 Partners

    What is perhaps even more stunning is that after the borrow fee on GME shorts was around 30.6% earlier this week…

    … it has since soared to 100% and in some cases as much as 250% for new shorts (existing shorts still pay “only” 30-50% borrow) according to Dusaniwsky. This means that it is now effectively suicidal to short GME (even if one can find the loaned shorts), as the cost of carrying the short is staggering, and it is equal to the nominal short every 5 months.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And while the exploding cost to borrow is catastrophic, the real punchline, as we noted earlier this week, is that the primary catalyst behind the initial WallStreetBets raid in the first place – the company’s massive short overhang – has not shrunk one bit (and has actually increased). In other words, as Dusaniwsky puts it, “This has been a long-buying rally and not a short squeeze rally!Panda face.”

    Translation: the real short covering hasn’t even started yet!

    It also means that the real parabolic move higher in GME has yet to come.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:58

  • Biden Sends B-52 Bomber Over Persian Gulf After Missile Fired On Riyadh
    Biden Sends B-52 Bomber Over Persian Gulf After Missile Fired On Riyadh

    On Wednesday The Wall Street Journal revealed that the Biden administration for the first time sent a B-52 bomber in a long range flight from the US to the Persian Gulf on Tuesday.

    It’s the first such “warning” message to Iran under the Biden White House, in continuation of similar recent moves by Trump, and the sixth such B-52 operation over the Persian Gulf in only a few months. WSJ reports:

    The B-52H Stratofortress, a long range heavy bomber, flew from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana on Tuesday and was expected to make a continuous flight across Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and down the eastern Saudi coastline near the United Arab Emirates and Qatar before returning to the U.S., a senior military official said.

    Via CENTCOM

    The official said further that “Our intent is to maintain that enduring defensive posture, to deter any aggression in the region, promote regional security and assure our allies.”

    Multiple Royal Saudi Arabian Air Force F-15 jets were seen escorting the bomber in photos posted by US CENTCOM.

    The provocative flyover appears to be in response to the two latest attacks on the Saudi capital of Riyadh. On Tuesday a ‘mystery’ inbound projectile, likely a missile, exploded over Riyadh’s city center when it was reportedly intercepted by Saudi anti-air defense systems.

    It followed a prior Saturday projectile fired at the city from outside the country, widely reported to have been a drone, which also seems to have been shot down before doing any damage.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Yemen’s Houthis have denied being behind either attack while at the same time speculation grows over the possibility that Iran-backed militias in Iraq are to blame, as WSJ describes further:

    The coalition blamed the attack on the Houthis, who denied responsibility, and the U.S. also implied they were to blame. A previously unknown group called “True Promise Brigades” that purports to be based in Iraq distributed a statement on Telegram claiming it had targeted Yamama Palace and other sites in Riyadh in retaliation to alleged Saudi support for Islamic State.

    The inbound projectile caused all flights at Riyadh’s international airport to be grounded for hours late into the day Tuesday.

    Yemen’s Houthis have in past years launched missile attacks on both the capital and Saudi Aramco facilities, most famously in the September 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais attack. In the last weeks of the Trump administration the Houthis were designated as an official terror organization, something the Biden administration is now reviewing.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:40

  • Most Shorted Names Soar After WallStreetBets Reopens
    Most Shorted Names Soar After WallStreetBets Reopens

    Update 745pm ET: And just like that, 1 hour after reddit locked down its notorious r/WallStreetBets forum, it has returned, and not only that but the chaos over recent events just assured that tomorrow it will have a record day in new members.

    The forum’s return came shortly after another notorious daytrader, Dave Portnoy vowed revenge for the downing of the portal, and in addition to revealing that he owns $1MM of AMC and NOK and may buy more, said that tomorrow would be the biggest day yet.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    More importantly, however, after tumbling earlier following the news of WSB’s lockdown, the most shorted stocks have again exploded higher with GME surging from a low of $220 back to $300…

    … and AMC last trading at almost $15 after dropping as low as $11 earlier.

     

    * * *

    Update 645pm ET: The infamous r/WallStreetBets subreddit which destroyed at least one hedge funds. and even cost legendary trader Steve Cohen 10-15% in losses in January…

    • COHEN’S POINT72 LOSES 10-15% AMID HEDGE FUND LOSSES THIS MONTH

    … has “gone private”, which means that only people who are invited can join.

    The move comes just moments after we showed that today was an absolute record day for WSB, which had a whopping 800,000 people join it in one day, the equivalent of $1.1 billion in stimmy checks..

    And since it will be that much more difficult to bring new entrants to the forum, it is hardly a surprise that the most shorted stocks which exploded in recent days, are suddenly tumbling with GME down almost $100 after hours on the news…

    … and AMC is tumbling too.

    So it is over? We doubt it: while the original subreddit may well have enough critical mass to continue its bull raids for the time being, it’s only a matter of time before the members regroup and find a venue that welcomes them.

    Maybe Parler?

    To be sure, the “autists” are not happy, and have a simple message: “FUCK WALL STREET, FUCK THE SHORTS.”

    * *  *

    Update 625pm ET: Until now, the only sure way to be shut down by a silicon valley tech titan was to be a conservative website or twitter account. Not anymore: as of this evening, the wrath of the tech giants has converged with that of the largest US hedge funds, and according to The Verge, Discord has banned the server of the r/WallStreetBets subreddit.

    Discord told the Verge it did not ban the server for financial fraud (because there was none)  but rather because it continued to allow “hateful and discriminatory content after repeated warnings” which of course is not only laughable, but has become the generic excuse of Wall Street titans to shut down anyone they don’t want “polluting” the internet airwaves which it now appears a handful of billionaires decide who can and who can’t be on.

    One wonders which hedge fund – Citadel or Point72 – made a quick call to the Discord board to make sure the massive short ramps cease.

    Here is Discord’s full statement:

    The server has been on our Trust & Safety team’s radar for some time due to occasional content that violates our Community Guidelines, including hate speech, glorifying violence, and spreading misinformation. Over the past few months, we have issued multiple warnings to the server admin.

    Today, we decided to remove the server and its owner from Discord for continuing to allow hateful and discriminatory content after repeated warnings.

    To be clear, we did not ban this server due to financial fraud related to GameStop or other stocks. Discord welcomes a broad variety of personal finance discussions, from investment clubs and day traders to college students and professional financial advisors. We are monitoring this situation and in the event there are allegations of illegal activities, we will cooperate with authorities as appropriate.

    The question now is whether reddit will do the same to r/Wallstreetbets as it did to r/Donaldtrump and bans it and, if so, does it mean that any young enterprising trader is just as bad as the MAGArs in the eyes of the tech establishment.

    * * *

    Update 5:55pm ET: In a day when regulators, brokerages, and even the administration launched a full-court press to halt the marketwide short squeezes launched by Robinhood daytraders armed with stimmy checks and inspired by Reddit’s forums – because a few hedge funds complained or were put out of business – Reddit’s infamous WallStreetBets, the alleged origin of many of these bull raids, has published a response to the SEC. We present it without commentary.

    “To the SEC retards in this sub: go fuck yourself. Why don’t you start investigating why companies can shut down trading so their hedge fund buddies don’t lose money. But when people lose money it’s completely okay. Eat a dick,” r/WallStreetBets said, which has already garnered 122k upvotes. 

    Reddit users of r/WallStreetBets were apparently trashed all day by CNBC hosts and guests, with some calling average retail investors “unsophisticated.” Well, if they were so “unsophisticated,” then the question begs, how did a bunch of millennials on the Reddit forum unleash one of the biggest “mother of all short squeezes,” and during the process, blow up multiple hedge funds who were overleveraged in Gamestop short positions. 

    One Reddit user said, “SEC I have proof of malfeasance. A group of hedge funds shorted the ever-living fuck out of GME putting themselves in this position. What repercussions should they face? Or is it because they’re somehow better than retail investors they shouldn’t face any penalties? We. Like. The. Stock.” 

    “Hedge funds simply got cocky and made the incredibly idiotic move of reaching 140% shorts in a stock. If we hadn’t seen that, someone else would and the result would be the same. Because that’s obviously going to bite you in the ass. There’s nothing coordinated or sophisticated about it. It’s legit dumber than anything I’ve ever seen in this sub and I’ve been here a while,” another Reddit user said. 

    But, “what it?” Well, the following post by the so-called WSB chairman (with 190K followed), and which was liked by Elon Musk, reveals the thinking of what happens next…

    * * *

    Earlier:

    Just hours after Jen Psaki informed the world that Joe Biden is closely tracking the turmoil in the most shorted stocks…

    … The SEC released a statement Wednesday after-hours echoing Uncle Jone, that it too was closely following the insanity in the market.

    “We are aware of and actively monitoring the on-going market volatility in the options and equities markets and, consistent with our mission to protect investors and maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets, we are working with our fellow regulators to assess the situation and review the activities of regulated entities, financial intermediaries, and other market participants,” Acting Chair Allison Herren Lee Pete Driscoll, Director, Division of Examinations Christian Sabella, Acting Director, Division of Trading and Markets wrote in a statement. 

    While the SEC’s did not mention individual company names, it was clear that the the was referring to the monster moves in the various most shorted names, including the extensively discussed explosions in Gamestop, AMC, BlackBerry Limited and countless other shorts which r/Wallstreetbets went after in hopes of forcing short squeezes.

    GameStop’s parabolic rise – which has become a poster child of all that is wrong with this bubble market – is a clear reminder of the Dot Com bubble insanity. Even fund manager Michael Burry who was long Gamestop, called the move “unnatural, insane, and dangerous.”

    Sure enough, in a hint of what may be coming, overnight William Galvin, Massachusetts’ top securities regulator, said today that Gamestop trading could suggest something is “systemically wrong” with the market. Around midday, TD Ameritrade told clients that it would impose restrictions on certain trades involding GME, AMC and other stocks…

    … ahead of what may be a marketwide halt in trading in these names as hedge funds come crying to mommy.

    Already some industry watchers are speculating that it is only a matter of time before Reddit will be subpoenaed to explain how a bunch of teenagers destroyed a hedge fund.

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    Also earlier, the CEO of Nasdaq, Adena Friedman, suggest a halt to trading to allow big investors to “recalibrate their positions’ to combat reddit users

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Then again, the ramp may continue for a while because after being asked explicitly on at least two occasions, uberprinter Jerome Powell refused to answer questions related to Gamestop’s parabolic rise, suggesting that the bubble is only going to get bigger.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:30

  • Coexistence Or Cold War with China?
    Coexistence Or Cold War with China?

    Authored by Pat Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    “The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States… does not challenge that position.

    Thus did President Nixon, in the Shanghai Communique of 1972, accept China’s territorial claim to the island of Taiwan.

    In 1979, Jimmy Carter severed relations with Taiwan, recognized Beijing as the legitimate government and dissolved the U.S. mutual security treaty with the Republic of China on Taiwan. We ceased to be obligated to go to war to defend Taiwan.

    Fast-forward four decades to the first weekend of President Joe Biden’s administration. Saturday, China sent eight nuclear-capable bombers and four fighter planes into the air defense identification zone of Taiwan.

    Sunday, Beijing sent 16 military aircraft into the same region.

    Observing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and visits by U.S. officials, China is issuing us a reminder:

    “You Americans are encouraging those on the island who seek independence. Not going to happen. Rather than let Taiwan go, we will fight. Taiwan is a part of China and is a red line for us.”

    Beijing is said to be seeking a face-to-face meeting with Biden.

    Why? Perhaps because incoming Secretary of State Antony Blinken in his confirmation hearings said that President Donald Trump “was right” to take a “tougher approach to China.”

    Blinken also agreed with outgoing Secretary Mike Pompeo, who had called China’s treatment of its Uighur minority “genocide,” and added that our commitment to Taiwan is “something that we hold to very strongly.”

    Under Xi Jinping, said Blinken, China seeks to “become the leading country in the world — the country that sets the norms, that sets the standards.” In short, China’s geostrategic goal is to replace the U.S.-created world order with a new world order of its own.

    Before we proceed further down this road to collision, questions need to be answered.

    To whom does Taiwan belong? If the answer is what it has been since 1972 — “Taiwan is a part of China” — then is not encouraging the 25 million Taiwanese to seek independence an “incitement to insurrection” from Beijing’s standpoint? And if China uses force to compel Taiwan to repudiate any right to independence, are we prepared to fight a war with a nuclear-armed China over the island’s political status and orientation?

    When Chinese Communists in 1950 conquered Tibet and began its ethnic and cultural cleansing of the region, what did we do?

    Basically, nothing.

    When China occupied and fortified rocks and reefs across the South China Sea what did we do?

    Basically, nothing.

    When China crushed the Hong Kong democracy protests we encouraged, and imposed a new national security law on the island’s 7 million people, what did we do?

    Basically, nothing.

    Now, Xi Jinping has bluntly told America that how China treats Tibetans, Uighurs, Christians and Falun Gong, all citizens of China, is no more the business of the United States than was our treatment of the indigenous peoples of North America the business of Imperial China.

    China’s model of political and economic development has enjoyed success in this century as an alternative to the Western model of liberal democracy.

    Beijing does not believe in untrammeled freedom of religion, or of speech, or of the press. She does not believe in choosing leaders by the ballot box.

    China is not an egalitarian society. She does not believe in the equality of all races, religions and ethnic groups. She does not celebrate diversity but fears it, seeing what ethnic diversity did to the Soviet Union, tearing it apart into 15 nations.

    She does not believe in racial quotas for advancement, but in a meritocracy that rewards loyalty and performance. And Chinese student test scores are among the highest in the world.

    While China steals intellectual property from U.S. factories in China, who moved the factories there to take advantage of cheap labor where a worker could be hired for $2 an hour?

    Beijing says any attempt to impose our “universal values” on China would amount to interference in her internal affairs. And any attempt to sever from Beijing her jurisdiction over Taiwan or the Spratly or Paracel Islands in the South China Sea will be resisted by force.

    Moreover, as none of the disputed rocks and reefs in the South and East China Seas involves any territory claimed by the U.S., and we have conceded for 50 years that Taiwan is “part of China,” why are we sending carrier battle groups into these seas and through the Taiwan Strait?

    What are we threatening?

    On Sunday, a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group, led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt sailed into the South China Sea on a “freedom of navigation” exercise, the first such operation under President Biden.

    This was the same day that those Chinese bombers and fighters flew into Taiwan’s air identification zone. We need to talk.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:20

  • Meanwhile In China, Giant Liquidity Shortage Pushes Overnight Rates To 5 Year High
    Meanwhile In China, Giant Liquidity Shortage Pushes Overnight Rates To 5 Year High

    One day after we reported that China’s overnight money market rate jumped to the highest in 15 months amid i) continued drainage of liquidity by the PBOC and ii) a warning by a PBOC advisor that asset bubbles have formed in the stock and property markets, China’s overnight repo spiked even higher, surging to its highest since March 2015, as investor jitters over liquidity mounted due to the central bank’s accelerating withdrawals.

    The overnight repurchase rate rose 23 bps to 3% on Wednesday and a further 4bps to 3.04% on Thursday, taking the increase this week to 59 basis points.

    Such increases in January – just ahead of the liquidity-heavy Lunar New Year – are anomalous. As Bloomberg notes, “China’s money-market rates are rising fast in January, defying a seasonal pattern of decreases, amid concerns over monetary tightening.

    The seven-day repo fixing rate has risen 50bps this month, the first January to see an increase since 2011 when the rate jumped only to fall back in February. The mainland’s money rates typically tend to rise into the Lunar New Year break which begins in mid-February this year.

    The sudden spike in funding costs took place after the People’s Bank of China drained a net 100 billion yuan from the financial system on Wednesday via open-market operations, the most in two weeks, a day after removing 78 billion yuan. It then followed this up with an even bigger drain on Thursday, when it withdrew another 150bn yuan, the largest such amount since October..

    The accelerating liquidity drains – which have hammered Chinese stocks – prompted concerns among the investing community that Beijing just may be serious about its deleveraging push in 2021, a year after China injected record amount of debt into the economy to stabilize it in the aftermath of the covid pandemic.

    Investors are also waiting to see how the PBOC handles the banking system’s need for funding before the week-long Lunar New Year holiday starts Feb. 11 because individuals and companies across the country will prepare cash for gifts and travel. The central bank might offer liquidity via its one-year medium-term lending facility and match the 200 billion yuan of MLF coming due on Feb. 18 even before the holiday, said Dariusz Kowalczyk, strategist at Credit Agricole CIB.

    “Investors are preparing for a prolonged period of higher funding costs,” he said. “The PBOC has drained a lot of cash this week despite the high funding costs.” MLF operations are usually handled on the 15th of every month.

    In an attempt to ease concerns, on Tuesday PBOC Governor Yi Gang said at a panel hosted by the World Economic Forum that China won’t “prematurely” exit from its supportive monetary policies while also keeping debt risks under control. Still, financial markets were roiled after the central bank drained liquidity on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and central bank adviser Ma Jun warned about asset bubbles.

    “Clearly, the market was very disappointed by the liquidity withdrawal over the past two sessions,” said Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank AG. Ma’s comments also intensified concern over a faster pace of monetary policy normalization, he added.

    Meanwhile, as Chinese bankers desperately await a liquidity injection, halfway around the world, reddit “autists” are taking on some of the most respected hedge funds – and winning – because there are trillions in excess liquidity sloshing around…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:06

  • Walmart To Build More Robo-Warehouses As Amazon Fight Intensifies  
    Walmart To Build More Robo-Warehouses As Amazon Fight Intensifies  

    It’s no secret that Walmart is gearing up for a lengthy fight against rival Amazon. 

    Walmart’s competitive advantages are their stores – and to complete last-mile deliveries, they must create local fulfillment centers  (LFC) with extensive automation to keep up with a surge in online orders. 

    Walmart’s Tom Ward, SVP of Customer Product, published a blog post on the company’s website outlining how LFCs, a modular warehouse added to an existing store, will be automated and stocked with additional items that are popular with customers. 

    Ward explains how LFCs work: 

    “Instead of an associate walking the store to fulfill an order from our shelves, automated bots retrieve the items from within the fulfillment center. The items are then brought to a picking workstation, where the order can be assembled with speed.

    We’ve always said personal shoppers are the secret to our pickup and delivery success, and that remains true. So, while the system retrieves the order for assembly, a personal shopper handpicks fresh items like produce, meat and seafood, and large general merchandise from the sales floor.

    Once the order is collected, the system stores it until it’s ready for pickup. This whole process can take just a few minutes from the time the order is placed to the time it’s ready for a customer or delivery driver to collect,” he wrote. 

    LFCs can store thousands of popular items, from consumables to electronics to fresh and frozen items.

    In Salem, New Hampshire, a Walmart store began an LFC pilot test in late 2019. Ward explained the “technology is impressive.” 

    He lists several reasons why LFCs are game-changing technology and will give Amazon a run for its money: 

    • More availability: We are able to pick more orders and do it quicker, creating more availability for customers.
    • Faster fulfillment: The system’s speed can allow orders to be picked up or delivered within the hour.
    • Greater efficiency: One local fulfillment center can fulfill orders for many stores, which means its benefits can be felt by customers in stores nearby.

    Ward adds some stores will be outfitted with automated drive-throughs. He said, “think of it as the ultimate convenience that allows customers and delivery drivers to drive up, scan a code, grab their order and go!” 

    In another redesign, this time within stores, Walmart reformated the inside layout to appear more like airports to make the shopping experiencing easier. 

    This decade will decide who comes out on top if that is Amazon or Walmart. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:00

  • US Weighing Action Against Russia For Navalny Detention: Secretary Of State Blinken
    US Weighing Action Against Russia For Navalny Detention: Secretary Of State Blinken

    A day after the Senate confirmed President Biden’s nominee, veteran diplomat Antony Blinken, as the secretary of state, Blinken gave his first press conference Wednesday afternoon.

    Revealing where Biden’s foreign policy emphasis will be over the coming months, he came out swinging against Putin (who else?) and Russia (in addition to mention of Iran and China in the course of the briefing), voicing that the US is “deeply concerned” about jailed opposition activist and politician Alexei Navalny.

    Blinken said the US administration is now mulling “actions in response to his detention in Russia,” according to Reuters. He highlighted continued concerns for Navalny’s “security and safety”.

    Via AP

    To review, Navalny is serving a 30-day jail sentence for skipping probation related to a 2014 criminal conviction. He recently returned to Moscow from Berlin where he had been recovering from an alleged nerve agent poisoning in August. He and German investigators have claimed it was part of a Russian intelligence assassination attempt on orders from Putin, with the Russian president brushing off the accusations given Navalny is “not important enough” to be a target of state security and intelligence services. Navalny is now urging his supporters to the streets in defiance of the government.

    “We have a deep concern for Mr. Navalny’s safety and security and the larger point is that his voice is the voice of many, many, many Russians and it should be heard, not muzzled,” Blinken said in his statements, also noting the US is not ruling out any punitive action on the table.

    He further said he finds it striking that the Putin government is so “frightened of one man, Mr. Navalny” – in an echo of earlier comments he made. Blinken said in the press briefing:

    “It remains striking to me how concerned and maybe even scared the Russian government seems to be of one man, Mr. Navalny.”

    He said the Biden White House is closely watching the human rights situation inside Russia, following Saturday protests where hundreds were reportedly detained in demonstrations and clashes with police which were deemed ‘unauthorized’.

    Meanwhile the Russia hawks are already talking “options”:

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    Blinken also raised other Russia-related issues being closely watched, as Reuters summarizes: “Blinken said at his first press briefing after being sworn in that the Biden administration was reviewing how to respond to actions by Russia, including the alleged use of chemical weapons in an attack on Navalny, the Solar Winds cyber attack, reports of bounties on American forces and interference in U.S. elections.”

    The day prior, President Biden had raised these issues in a phone call with Putin; however, details in terms of the Russian leader’s response were not forthcoming.

    * * *

    Here’s the full Wednesday press briefing:

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 22:40

  • Biden Freezes Arms Sales To Saudis & UAE, Including Large F-35 Jet Transfer
    Biden Freezes Arms Sales To Saudis & UAE, Including Large F-35 Jet Transfer

    On Wednesday the Biden administration issued a freeze of all US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates at a moment Congressional scrutiny of America’s support to the Saudi-led coalition waging war in Yemen grows. US involvement in the war goes all the way back to the Obama administration, with Trump also in the last months of his presidency approving billions in new arms sales to the kingdom.

    In particular Lockheed Martin produced F-35 stealth fighters that were set to be transferred to the UAE the have been “temporarily” blocked along with munitions to the Saudis, among other sales. Prior reports suggested the prior Trump deal was to send as many as 50 advanced F-35 fighters to the UAE.

    The Lockheed Martin produced F35 fighter jet, via FT/dpa

    The AP cited officials who identified “that among the deals being paused is a massive $23 billion transfer of stealth F-35 fighters to the United Arab Emirates.”

    “That sale and several other massive purchases of U.S. weaponry by Gulf Arab countries had been harshly criticized by Democrats in Congress,” the report added.

    The State Department said of the “temporary pause” that it is “temporarily pausing the implementation of some pending U.S. defense transfers and sales under Foreign Military Sales and Direct Commercial Sales to allow incoming leadership an opportunity to review.”

    And Axios further details that “The sales of F-35 jets and attack drones to the UAE and a large supply of munitions to Saudi Arabia will be paused pending a review.” It added that it “signals a major policy shift from the Trump era, and may herald sharp tensions with both Gulf countries.”

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    In response the UAE appealed to the need for “interoperability” with US forces in the Gulf while underscoring the close military cooperation as a reliable partner force:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    So far the Saudis have had no comment after the somewhat expected move, which also follows Biden previously on the campaign trail vowing to get tougher on the “pariah” state, as he called the kingdom during a debate.

    Months ago an attempt in the Senate led by New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez to block Trump arms sales to the Saudis was narrowly defeated.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 22:20

  • 20% Of The World Could Have Digital Cash In Three Years: BIS
    20% Of The World Could Have Digital Cash In Three Years: BIS

    While most traders and finance pros are distracted by the ongoing war between Wall Street and Wall Street Bets which sparked market moves and short squeezes which until last week were viewed as unthinkable, we should remember that for all its entertainment value the crusade of a few millions GenZers is a sideshow which can be shut down with the flick of a switch.

    Indeed, tonight’s main event, which saw the most heavily shorted stocks tumble the moment the r/WallStreetBets subreddit went dark (or rather “private”) only to rebound once the forum reemerged, demonstrated just how easy it is for both Silicon Valley and Wall Street to silence these upstart voices and return to market to “normal.” And all they have to do is to claim that there is “hate speech” on the forum – a truly shocking discovery within the testosterone-heavy world of male traders – as Discord did when it shut down the WSB server earlier today.

    In any case, while we all keep an eye on what Gamestop does next, we should always remember that the people in charge are those that print the money, namely the world’s central banks. And today, in all the chaos surrounding the latest most shorted meltups, there was some critical news which most missed yet which will have far greater consequences on the future of the world then where GME closes tomorrow.

    According to a survey conducted by the central banks’ central bank, the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements (profiled in “Meet The Secretive Group That Runs The World“), central banks representing one-fifth of the world’s population are likely to issue their own digital currencies in the next three years.

    The push for digital currencies – which as we – and DoubleLine – explained last year is the final move in the radical overhaul to the established monetary system and which will unleash far higher inflation – comes as authorities look to fend off the threat to their money-printing powers from bitcoin and efforts linked to Big Tech such as the Facebook-backed Diem, formerly Libra. In fact, just today, Agustin Carstens, the general manager of the BIS – condemned bitcoin as “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster” and said it was “piggybacking” on mainstream institutions and becoming a “threat to financial stability”, an attempt to demonize Bitcoin as if it is somehow worse than central banking itself.

    At the same time, central banks who have taken interest rates negative are looking at whether digital cash could be used to help implement the radical policy. Because in a world with trillions in paper money, the easiest way to circumvent punitive interest rates is simply to hold cash in one’s safe. Digital currencies would promptly do away with that.

    As Reuters reports, Wednesday’s BIS survey of 65 central banks showed 86% were exploring the benefits and drawbacks of digital currencies, with some testing possible designs. Translation: we are just years away from global implementation.

    And while the survey showed that emerging and developing economy central banks are more likely than those in major economies to issue central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the reality is that it is precisely the developed nations whose central banks are desperate for “blockchained” control over currency in circulation, and its digitalization, especially when another massive stimulus has to be unleashed. As we explained previously, such a digital deposit of dollars – which would circumvent the Treasury (and Congress) – by the Fed, is precisely what central banks hope to enact after the next financial crisis in order to spark a reflationary wave.

    Indeed, as the survey also showed a number of bigger countries have also been testing the waters, with China the most advanced.

    A fifth of central banks from major economies that responded to the survey said issuing digital currencies was “possible” in the short or medium term, up from only one last year. Expect this number to rise to 100% in the coming months.

    Meanwhile, as we reported last year, the People’s Bank of China expanded a trial of a digital renminbi to its three largest urban regions, which together contain 400 million people, in August. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week her bank was pushing on with its work on a digital euro, Sweden’s E-Krona is progressing and even Jerome Powell has said the Fed is carrying out experiments for a digital dollar.

    To be sure, there are still hurdles to overcome, first and foremost the widespread resistance that would emerge once central banks declare paper currency void.

    The BIS survey also showed that over a quarter of central banks do not currently have the authority to issue a CBDC and about 48% remain unsure, although both those numbers can easily move higher if the need was there. Separately, around 60% of banks see themselves as unlikely to issue any type of digital currency in the short or medium-term.

    As a whole, though, “central banks are moving into more advanced stages of CBDC engagement, progressing from conceptual research to practical experimentation,” the survey said.

    And while we wait for the catalyst that moves the global economy into a digital payment format, last October the Bahamas became the first country to launch a general purpose CBDC, known as the Sand Dollar. Many others will follow suit.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 21:57

  • FDA Issues "Import Alert" On Potentially Deadly Mexican Hand Sanitizer 
    FDA Issues “Import Alert” On Potentially Deadly Mexican Hand Sanitizer 

    The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a rare “import alert” Tuesday on alcohol-based hand sanitizers originating from Mexico that could potentially be hazardous to the health and safety of US consumers. 

    Last summer, the FDA began to issue warnings for consumers about counterfeit hand sanitizers from Mexico. Since the notice, an analysis completed by the agency found 84% of the hand sanitizers imported from the country were not in compliance with US standards. 

    Even though many of the products “were labeled to contain ethanol (also known as ethyl alcohol) but tested positive for methanol contamination, methanol, or wood alcohol, is a substance that can be toxic when absorbed through the skin and life-threatening when ingested,” the FDA statement read. 

    The import alert has allowed the FDA to heavily scrutinize and detain hand sanitizer shipments from Mexico if need be. 

    “Consumer use of hand sanitizers has increased significantly during the coronavirus pandemic, especially when soap and water are not accessible, and the availability of poor-quality products with dangerous and unacceptable ingredients will not be tolerated,” said Judy McMeekin, Pharm.D., FDA Associate Commissioner for Regulatory Affairs. 

    McMeekin continued: “Today’s actions are necessary to protect the safe supply of alcohol-based hand sanitizers. We will continue to work with our stakeholders to ensure the availability of safe products and to communicate vital information with the health and safety of US consumers in mind.” 

    The FDA warned the potentially deadly Mexican hand sanitizer could cause “nausea, vomiting, headache, blurred vision, permanent blindness, seizures, coma, permanent damage to the nervous system or death.”

    What needs to be asked is if nefarious actions by entities in Mexico purposely manufactured deadly hand sanitizer to poison Americans?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 21:40

  • Biden Signs Executive Order To Ban The Term 'China Virus'
    Biden Signs Executive Order To Ban The Term ‘China Virus’

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    The latest of Joe Biden’s THIRTY SEVEN executive orders signed in the first week of his presidency states that the term ‘Chinese virus’ or ‘China virus’ is now banned.

    Yes, this is real.

    The White House website confirms that Biden signed this EO.

    CBS News reported ‘Biden to address racism toward Asian Americans during pandemic with executive action’.

    The report notes that “The Biden executive order is also expected to direct federal agencies like the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to examine whether there are xenophobic references like “China virus” in any existing policies, directives or government websites published by the Trump administration.”

    NBC News lists all the executive actions Biden has instigated thus far, with the last being the ban on the term ‘China Virus’. The report notes that “additionally, the order directed the attorney general to work to prevent discrimination and hate crimes.”

    Given that literally anything is now being touted as a ‘hate crime’, that could mean banning or canceling absolutely everyone and everything.

    As we noted earlier, Biden admitted back in October that anyone who legislates by executive order should be considered ‘a dictator’.

    Biden appears not to know what he is actually signing, and can barely hold the pen:

    After managing to stuff the pen in his pants, Biden then babbled on about the wearing of face masks, for which he has already issued multiple executive mandates.

    Biden said that a Congressman told him to “kiss my ear, I’m not wearing a mask”.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 21:20

  • US COVID Cases Tumble Across The West & South
    US COVID Cases Tumble Across The West & South

    In the last few days – really since the BIden inauguration – we have seen declarations of victory over covid across the board, from the likes of Dr. Fauci who yesterday said that coronavirus infections may be about to hit a “plateau“, to Wall Street, where Bank of America yesterday declared “The Beginning Of The End Of The COVID Crisis.” Then, last week, we asked if it was “almost over” when the US saw a record one-day drop in covid hospitalizations.

    Today, we got further confirmation that the inauguration of Biden was magically just the event that was needed to put covid in the rear-view mirror: as Bloomberg reports, almost every state in the West reported cases falling or flat Tuesday, and every region in the US has seen its seven-day average drop at least 20% since Jan. 12.

    When was the peak day? Why just around the day Joe Biden walked into the White House.

    Some states, like California and Oregon, saw their numbers drop by more than one-third in the course of the past week. Such improvements inspired California Gov. Newsom to ease social-distancing measures earlier this week. The relaxed policies, combined with more-contagious strains gaining traction in the state, could lay the groundwork for numbers to spike again.

    Among US regions, the South, where the seven-day average ticked down 24% over the last two weeks, improved the least. The significant decrease, which has lasted longer than any since the summer, came off a high peak. The South continues to see the highest caseload, and new infections there accounted for half the national total Tuesday. Numbers this month may also be overstated, reflecting catch.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 20:53

  • Biden Chief Of Staff Offers Support For Teachers' Unions Refusing To Reopen Schools
    Biden Chief Of Staff Offers Support For Teachers’ Unions Refusing To Reopen Schools

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    President Joe Biden’s chief of staff on Tuesday backed teachers’ unions that are refusing to return to schools for in-person learning, contradicting studies that show little virus transmission is taking place inside schools.

    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officials have repeatedly said it’s safe to reopen schools. Former Director Robert Redfield said last year schools never should have shut down. Officials said Tuesday in a journal article that “there has been little evidence that schools have contributed meaningfully to increased community transmission” of the virus, which causes COVID-19.

    But teachers’ unions across the United States are refusing to resume in-person learning, claiming teachers would be in danger.

    In the most high-profile case, the Chicago Teachers Union is battling with the city of Chicago, which attempted to resume in-person classes on Monday. The union claims conditions aren’t right and in a blog post on Tuesday, urged its members to work from home on Wednesday. If the city retaliates, it said, a strike will be held.

    Biden campaigned on dealing with the CCP virus pandemic. He vowed to spearhead the reopening of schools.

    Asked why so many public schools remain closed, his chief of staff Ron Klain said it was a funding issue.

    Teachers Adrienne Thomas (L) and Irene Barrera set up their computers and materials for their virtual classes outside of Suder Montessori Magnet Elementary School in solidarity with pre-K educators forced back into the building in Chicago, Ill., on Jan. 11, 2021. (Anthony Vazquez/Chicago Sun-Times via AP

    “That’s why the president of the United States sent a plan to Congress even before he took office to make the investments you need to make the schools safe,” Klain said during an appearance on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront,” referring to Biden’s $1.9 trillion proposal that includes a number of measures such as a minimum wage hike.

    Biden, in remarks at the White House on Tuesday, called for Congress to pass the proposal “to help schools and businesses reopen.”

    A study published Tuesday showed few CCP virus outbreaks related to classroom settings being seen in rural schools in Wisconsin that reopened. But those schools received “sizable grants” that enabled them to set small classroom sizes and implement other safety measures, Klain argued.

    “In other states, we haven’t seen those kinds of investments. President Biden has sent a plan to Congress that will make sure that the majority of our schools can be reopened in 100 days. We need Congress to pass that plan so that we can do the kind of things you need to do so that the schools can be safe, so the students can be safe, so the teachers can be safe. Sadly, it costs money,” Klain said.

    When the host pushed back and pointed to Chicago, asking why the union seemed to be going against what studies show, he added:

    I don’t think that teachers’ unions are overruling studies. I think that what you’re seeing [is] that schools haven’t made the investments to keep the students safe. I mean, again, the Wisconsin study were classrooms of 12 on average. So that requires a lot more classrooms, a lot more teachers, or, you know, other kinds of arrangements to get them small, podding students very carefully.”

    “So we need to do the things to open safely. Most of the teachers I talk to, they want to be back in the classroom. They just want to know that it’s safe and we as a country should make the investments to make it safe,” Klain added.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 20:40

  • Did America's Anti-Cop Movement Lead To Largest Homicide Increase In US History?
    Did America’s Anti-Cop Movement Lead To Largest Homicide Increase In US History?

    Did America’s ‘defund the police’ movement result in the largest percentage increase in homicides in US history? Heather Mac Donald, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute and author of “The War On Cops” makes a strong argument that it likely did.

    In a Sunday Wall Street Journal op-ed, Mac Donald notes that 2020 ‘likely saw the largest percentage increase in homicides in American history,’ noting that murder was up almost 37% across a sample of 57 large and medium-size cities. According to preliminary figures, “at least 2,000 more Americans, most of them black, were killed in 2020 than 2019.”

    And while the establishment media is largely blaming the pandemic for the spike, Mac Donald says the chronology doesn’t support that assertion – and President Biden’s criminal-justice policies stand to exacerbate the ongoing crime wave while ignoring its causes.

    The local murder increases in 2020 were startling: 95% in Milwaukee, 78% in Louisville, Ky., 74% in Seattle, 72% in Minneapolis, 62% in New Orleans, and 58% in Atlanta, according to data compiled by crime analyst Jeff Asher. Dozens of children, overwhelmingly black, were killed in drive-by shootings. They were slain in their beds, living rooms and strollers. They were struck down at barbecues, in their yards, in malls, in their parents’ cars, and at birthday parties. Fifty-five children were killed in Chicago in 2020, 17 in St. Louis, and 11 in Philadelphia. In South Los Angeles alone, 40 children were shot, some non-lethally, through September. –WSJ

    The MSM, such as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, suggested that the increase is due to the “economic, civic and interpersonal stress” caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot similarly blamed pandemic-related “frustration, anger … trauma and mental health challenges.” 

    However, this doesn’t square with the fact that crime actually fell during the first few months of the pandemic lockdowns – both domestically and abroad, only to reverse itself in May in the United States, “thanks to a surge in drive-by shootings.”

    On May 31 alone, 18 people were murdered in Chicago – the city’s most violent day in 60 years according to Paul Cassell, a law professor at the University of Utah. Elsewhere, American cities saw ‘similar spikes in mayhem, all tied to the street violence unleashed by the death of George Floyd,” a black man who died while in custody of the Minneapolis PD on May 25 after an officer knelt on his neck for over eight minutes, while having fentanyl and methamphetamine in his system – and being COVID-positive – at the time of his death.

    As Mac Donald writes, “The political and media response to Floyd’s death amplified the existing narrative that policing was lethally racist,” adding “The ensuing riots received little condemnation from Democratic leaders and a weak response from the criminal-justice system.

    Since Floyd’s death, police have faced a ‘poisonous environment,’ having been shot in the head, firebombed, and assaulted with lethal projectiles. Those who attempt to provide aid in the field risk being pelted with rocks and bottles.

    Los Angeles police officers shot in ambush-style attack

    One Oakland, California officer who has arrested ‘dozens of known murderers and gang members’ told Mac Donald that he’s scared for the first time, “not because the criminals are necessarily more violent, even though they are,” but because if he has to use force on a suspect, he stands to lose his job, his liberty or his life. A “simple cost-benefit analysis” would suggest the safest course of action for officers is to simply recall to calls for service and collect a paycheck.

    “All cops now understand this,” the officer said.

    One veteran Chicago detective said “Every day you have to decide whether to get out of your patrol car and do something or do nothing,” adding that if anyone attempts actual police work, they may end up in jail or without a job if things go sideways.

    “Proactive police work is dead,” said Police Lt. Bob Kroll of Minneapolis, where police stops fell by more than 50% over the summer. Elsewhere, such as Philadelphia, New York, Los Angeles, Oakland, Chicago and elsewhere, the number of police-civilian contacts have plummeted.

    Meanwhile, anti-gang units and other specialty units across the country which got guns off the street were disbanded due to having a ‘disparate impact on African-Americans,’ while police chiefs and prosecutors alike have refused to enforce low-level ‘quality-of-life’ laws for the same reason.

    As a result, “More gang members are carrying guns, since their chances of being stopped are slim. They are enthusiastically killing each other and innocent bystanders out of opportunism, not economic deprivation or existential angst.

    Meanwhile, 2020’s violence has only accelerated into the new year – with shootings in South Los Angeles jumping 742% in the first two weeks of the year, while Oakland homicides were up 500% and shootings up 126% through Jan 17. Murders in New York have jumped 42% and shooting victims 15% during the same period, while carjackings in Chicago are up 135% in Chicago.

    On Jan. 16, a woman was pulled from her car in Aurora, Ill., and shot in the back by carjackers who had already stolen two vehicles earlier that day. Four other Chicago suburbs were hit that weekend. In Chicago proper, there have been 144 carjackings through Jan. 21, with 166 guns recovered. WSJ

    President Biden, of course, is fanning the anti-cop flames – arguing during the campaign without justification that African-Americans ‘rightly feared that their loved ones could be killed by a cop every time they stepped outside.’ Now, his administration’s criminal-justice blueprint aims to get rid of racial disparities in law enforcement – which would eliminate much of law enforcement itself.

    Read the rest of the op-ed here.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 20:20

  • Florida Man Arrested Over 2016 Election Memes Designed To "Trick" Hillary Voters
    Florida Man Arrested Over 2016 Election Memes Designed To “Trick” Hillary Voters

    A 31-year-old Florida man was arrested in West Palm Beach on Wednesday on federal charges that he conspired with several other people to use memes and social media platforms to trick Hillary Clinton voters into voting via text message, and that voting for Hillary would mean people’s daughters would be drafted to fight establishment resource wars under a Clinton presidency.

    Mackey’s “Ricky Vaughan” avatar

    Douglass Mackey, a.k.a. “Ricky Vaughn,” faces up to 10 years in prison for ‘spreading election disinformation’ using several Twitter accounts, one of which had approximately 58,000 followers before Twitter suspended him on November 2, 2016.

    According to the Biden Department of Justice:

    “Starting in at least 2015, MACKEY participated in numerous Group DMs. These groups, which at times included dozens of individuals, and at times had overlapping membership, served as forums for the participants to share, among other things, their views concerning how best to influence the Election. Among other things, MACKEY and the members of these groups used the Group DMs to create, refine and share memes and hashtags that members of the groups would subsequently post and distribute.

    One of the memes featured a picture of a black woman accompanied by the text “Avoid the line. Vote from home. Text ‘Hillary’ to 59925. Vote for Hillary and be part of history.”

    BuzzFeed News reported sending a text to the number, to which Hillary Clinton’s campaign responded “The ad you saw was not approved by iVisionMobile OR Hillary for America in any way. To opt-in to the real HFL list, text HFA to 47246.”

    According to the indictment, at least 4,900 people texted Hillary’s first name to the number.

    We can’t help but wonder if this Twitter user will also be arrested for her nearly identical November 6, 2020 election video aimed at tricking Trump voters?

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Mackey also promoted another meme campaign before the election which was organized across several image board and social media platforms which conveyed the message that a vote for Clinton was a vote to send people’s daughters to war.

    Mackey is accused of conspiring with at least four other people – one of whom was identified as “Baked Alaska,” real name Tim Gionet, who was arrested earlier this month by the FBI for his involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

    Needless to say, conservatives need to watch what they say – or the opposition DOJ may come after you too for obvious political satire.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 20:00

  • Most Shorted Stocks Update: Here Come The Microcaps
    Most Shorted Stocks Update: Here Come The Microcaps

    Late on Friday, in what could be the most profitable post in our 12 year history, we hinted (since we are not “advisors”) to all those who had missed what we thought at the time was the “unprecedented” move in GME stock (which in retrospect was merely an appetizer to the main course which has since sent the stock 6x higher to $385 today) to look at all the other most shorted small cap companies in the Russell 3000 – specifically those with a short interest at 50% or more of float listed below….

    … and buy an equal-weighted basket of these, to wit:

    For those who wish to gamble their next stimmy check and frontrun the next reddit-raid, the best move would be to buy equal amounts of the 10 companies (ex GME) and just wait for the short squeeze panic to unroll. Yes, there is a risk that the entire stimmy will be lost, but that would require logic and fundamentals to matter again… and we just don’t see that happening any time soon.

    Just three trading days later, this basket has more than tripled in value. To all those who put it on, congratulations. 

    Of course, since then this trade has blown up, and in addition to just the most shorted stocks listed above we now know that at least one more hedge fund – Maplelane Capital – in addition to Melvin Capital (which blew up and only a bailout from Citadel and Point72 prevented a disaster), has been dragged into the fray, after we published its publicly disclosed puts last night, which has given retail traders an even broader universe of companies to squeeze.

    Which has brought up an interesting point: when looking at the most shorted names – based on some screening metric, like Short Interest as a % of Float for example – it depends which data source once uses. For example, in the table above we used CapitalIQ, a very useful service for doing quick screens.

    So to extend the possible list of short squeezes we decided to rerun the same screen of most shorted companies (this time without a market cap limit) but using Bloomberg instead of CapIQ.

    The results were interesting: while most companies from the two screens overlapped – including GME, BBY, ANC, FIZZ, DDS, GOGO, SRG and so on, there were also some even smaller companies that we never noticed initially…

    …. such as Saddle Ranch Media (SRMX) – whose stock costs one-hundredth of a nickel (probably for good reasons) and which “is a diversified media and entertainment company operating three divisions: Saddle Ranch Digital, Saddle Ranch Film, and Saddle Ranch TV”, and KYN Capital Group (KYNC) – a “capital-finance leasing company”  and both of which are pink sheet, microcap companies – the first has a market cap of just $9MM and, according to Bloomberg, a short-to-float ratio of 129%, or just below that of Gamespot…

    … while KYNC is a $15MM microcap, which according to BBG has an even more ridiculous 399% SI/Float ratio.

    As a note: these are certainly “worthless” stocks and are trading where they are trading for a reason… but as the events in the past few days have shown, none of that actually matters in a bubble where the only thing that does matter is flow of capital.

    Which begs the question: as the dash for (shorted) trash continues, and with r/wallstreetbets ravaging the usual “most shorted” suspects within the small cap Russell 3000 universe, is it about to move to the micro-cap pink sheets, where liquidity is even more non-existant and one squeeze raid can send a stock orders of magnitude higher than ever GME, and make anyone an overnight millionaire?

    We hope to find out shortly.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 19:44

  • The Next Melvin? Maplelane Loses 33% On Shorts This Month, Steve Cohen Down 15%
    The Next Melvin? Maplelane Loses 33% On Shorts This Month, Steve Cohen Down 15%

    Yesterday, in the aftermath of the spectacular collapse of Melvin Capital which only exists because Citadel’s Ken Griffin and Point72’s SAC’s Steve Cohen gave it $2.75BN to pay for a margin call, we speculated that the option heavy, short-focused Maplelane Capital (established in 2010 by a former PM at the disgraced tech-focused hedge fund Galleon) and was full to the gills with puts on names that had exploded in recent days, could be the next major hedge fund to blow up.

    Today, Bloomberg read our article and reported that – as we expected – “Maplelane Capital, a $3.5 billion stock hedge fund, lost about 33% this month through Tuesday in part because of a short position on GameStop Corp., according to investors.”

    While we didn’t know the exact number, it’s clear that it would be bad.

    What follows is speculation that despite the massive loss, “the firm significantly altered its portfolio in recent weeks, adjusting risk, one of the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. Those changes helped protect against further losses, and the firm has no liquidity or margin issues.”

    Right… a 33% drop and no liquidity or margin issues, is their Prime Broker the Federal Reserve, or god?.

    And even if that is right, we can’t wait to see the inbound redemption request faxes from delighted LPs who just lost a third of their capital which should assure that this particular hedge fund does not reincarnate a third time.

    Meanwhile, reporting something we did not know but certainly speculated, Bloomberg also said that Steve Cohen’s $19 billion Point72 Asset Management “lost 10% to 15% so far this month as a growing number of hedge funds tally losses from retail investors’ attacks on popular positions.” And this after Cohen plowed $750MM in Melvin Capital to make sure that his previous investment in his former employee, Gabe Plotkin, wasn’t wiped.

    Cohen’s loss underscores the potential for pain to spread after investors using chat rooms and social media set out to target some hedge fund bets. Point72 already had about $1 billion at Melvin, which as of Tuesday had lost more than 30% so far this year.

    Yes: one of the most legendary hedge funds on Wall Street, the firm that was the inspiration for “Billions”, lost almost a sixth of its value because of a unprecedented raid by a ragtag band of teenage “autists” who showed the world just how much power and how much damage countless DDOS-type attacks on a handful of hedge funds by millions of individual investors all armed with stimmy checks – who are irrelevant alone but so powerful combined – can do.

    So much damage, in fact, that the powers that be found it necessary to first shut down the discord server, and then give them a permanent time out because one more hedge funds – perhaps Steve Cohen himself – complained.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And then there’s this:

    • *SUNDHEIM’S $20 BILLION D1 CAPITAL LOSES ABOUT 20% THIS MONTH: BBG

    We can almost see how the 3 million WallStreetBets “autists” surpassed conservatives to become society’s #1 enermy…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 19:33

  • Audit Finds 4 Million Californians May Have To Repay COVID Jobless Benefits
    Audit Finds 4 Million Californians May Have To Repay COVID Jobless Benefits

    A new audit of California’s Employment Development Department (EDD) finds the agency was unprepared and had ineffective management to handle the surge in jobless claims during the virus pandemic. 

    In September, the Joint Legislative Audit Committee ordered State Auditor Elaine Howle to conduct an in-depth audit into EDD following a tidal wave of abuse reports. 

    One of the most notable abuses was rapper Fontrell Antonio Baines, 31, who fraudulently collected $1.2 million in EDD claims. He even detailed the EDD scam in a rap video. 

    State lawmakers had criticized the agency for massive backlogs that delayed claims, along with its failure to prevent widespread fraud. 

    “Although it would be unreasonable to have expected a flawless response to such a historical event, EDD’s inefficient processes and lack of advanced planning led to significant delays in its payment of [unemployment insurance] claims,” Howle’s letter said, which was addressed to the governor and lawmakers. 

    Howle found at least half of the claims submitted online to EDD could not automatically process between March and September and were processed manually. 

    “As a result, hundreds of thousands of claimants waited longer than 21 days — EDD’s measure of how quickly it should process a claim — to receive their first benefit payments,” Howle said. “EDD has begun to modify its practices and processes to increase the rate at which it automatically processes online claims, but the automation it has gained during the pandemic is not fully sustainable.”

    As the backlog soared during the pandemic and internal chaos at EDD erupted, the agency relaxed eligibility rules to speed up claims distribution. This may have resulted in millions of people who shouldn’t have received claims or were overpaid. Now EDD is deciding how these folks will repay the jobless benefits they got during the pandemic.

    Around 2.4 million people who received jobless benefits might have been ineligible, and 1.7 might have been overpaid, totaling more than 4 million people might have to repay the state government. 

    “That could have significant consequences for claimants,” the audit said.

    In December, EDD flagged 12.7 million eligibility issues affecting 2.4 million people. To review the millions of issues, it would take the agency 3 million hours of work to resolve just half of the claims. 

    California Labor Secretary Julie Su said this week that the state paid out $11.4 billion in fraudulent claims last year, representing about 10% of the $114 billion in benefits paid since March.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/27/2021 – 19:00

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Today’s News 27th January 2021

  • That's All Folks!
    That’s All Folks!

    Authored (mostly satirically) by CJ Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

    As they used to say at the end of all those wacky Looney Tunes cartoons, that’s all folks! The show is over.

    Literal Russian-Asset Hitler, the Latest Greatest Threat to Western Democracy, the Monster of Mar-a-Lago, Trumpzilla, Trumpenstein, the Ayatollah of Orange Shinola, has finally been humiliated and given the bum-rush out of Washington by the heroic forces of the GloboCap “Resistance,” with a little help from the US military.

    The whole thing went exactly to script.

    Well … OK, not quite exactly to script. Despite four years of dire warnings by the corporate media, the Intelligence Community, Hollywood celebrities, the Democratic Party, faux anti-fascists, fake-Left pundits, and pretty much every utterly deluded, Trump-obsessed liberal with an Internet connection, there was no Hitlerian “Reichstag Fire,” no Boogaloo, no Civil War II, no coup, no white-supremacist uprising.

    Nothing.

    The man simply got on a chopper and was flown away to his Florida resort.

    I know, you’re probably thinking …

    “Wow, how embarrassing for the GloboCap ‘Resistance,’ being exposed as a bunch of utterly shameless, neo-Goebbelsian propagandists, and liars, and hysterical idiots, and such!”

    And, in any other version of reality, you’d have a point … but not in this one.

    No, in this reality, “Democracy Has Prevailed!”

    Yes, it was touch and go there for a while, as there was no guarantee that the Intelligence Community, the military-industrial complex, Western governments, the corporate media, supranational corporations, Internet oligarchs, and virtually every other component of the global-capitalist empire could keep one former game show host with no real political power whatsoever from taking over the entire world.

    Still, Trump’s failure to go full-Hitler, or even half-Hitler, was somewhat awkward. I mean, you can’t whip millions of people into a four-year frenzy of fear and hatred of a clearly powerless ass-clown president, and portray him as a Russian Intelligence asset, and the Son of Hitler, and all the rest of it, and then just drop the act cold and laugh in their faces. That would leave them feeling like total morons who had just spent the last four years of their lives being lied to and emotionally manipulated, or like members of a cult, or something.

    Fortunately, for GloboCap, this was not a major problem. All they had to do was produce a cheap simulation of “Trump going full-Hitler.” It didn’t even have to be convincing. They just needed a semi-dramatic event to plug into the official narrative, something they could call “an attempted coup,” “an insurrection,” “an attack,” and so on, and which millions of credulous liberals could hysterically shriek about on the Internet.

    The “Storming of the Capitol” did the trick.

    They held a dress rehearsal in Berlin last August, and then gave the real performance in the Capitol Building (this time it was for all the money, so they went ahead and got a couple people killed). It wasn’t very hard to pull off. All they actually had to do, in both Berlin and DC, was allow a small fringe group of angry protesters to gain access to the building, film it, and then pump out the “attempted coup” narrative. It made no difference whatsoever that the “domestic terrorists” (in both Berlin and Washington) were a completely unorganized, unarmed mob that posed absolutely zero threat of “staging a coup” and “overthrowing the government.” It also made not the slightest difference that Trump didn’t actually “incite” the mob (yes, I put myself through the agony of reading every word of his speech, which was the usual word salad from start to finish). We’re talking propaganda here, not reality.

    The so-called “Violent Storming of the Capitol” set the stage for the main event, which was the show of force we have all just witnessed. Someone (I’m not entirely clear who) ordered in the troops, tens of thousands of them, locked down Washington, erected fences, set up road blocks and military check points, and otherwise occupied the government district. It looked like any other US-military post-“regime-change” occupation, because that’s what it was, which was precisely the point. As I have been repeating for … well, for over four years now, it was always going to end this way, with GloboCap making an example of Trump and reminding everyone who is really in charge.

    Look, let’s be clear about these last four years, because there are all kinds of crazy theories going around (not to mention the official GloboCap narrative), but what actually happened is pretty simple. Here’s the whole story, as concise as I can make it.

    Back in 2016, the American people, sick to the gills of global capitalism and its increasingly oppressive woke ideology, elected an unauthorized, narcissistic ass-clown to the highest office in the land.

    They did this for a variety of reasons, but mostly it was just a big “fuck you” to the establishment. It was an act of rebellion against a government which they know is owned by unaccountable, supranational corporations and oligarchs who openly detest them.

    It was an act of rebellion against a system of government they know they have no influence over, and are not going to have any influence over. It was an act of rebellion against global capitalism, the unopposed, global-hegemonic system which has dominated the world for the last thirty years … whether they realized what they were rebelling against or not.

    This act of rebellion happened on the heels of Brexit (another such act of rebellion) and in the context of the rise of assorted “populist” movements all throughout the world. When Trump actually won in 2016, the global capitalist ruling classes realized they had a serious problem … a “populist” rebellion in the heart of the empire.

    So they suspended the Global War on Terror and launched the War on Populism.

    The ultimate objective of the War on Populism was to neutralize this “populist” rebellion and remind the public who is actually running things.

    Think of the Trump era as a prison riot. In any maximum security prison, the prisoners know they can’t escape, but they can definitely raise a little hell now and then, which they tend to do when they get really tired of being abused and neglected by the prison guards.

    Most prison riots run out of steam on their own, but if they go on too long or get too ugly, the penal authorities typically respond by shooting a few prisoners (usually the ringleaders), and reminding the inmates that they are in a prison, and that the owners of the prison have guns, whereas they have shivs made out of spoons and toothbrushes.

    This, basically, is what we’ve just experienced.

    The global capitalist ruling classes have just reminded us who is really in charge, who the US military answers to, and how quickly they can strip away the facade of democracy and the rule of law. They have reminded us of this for the last ten months, by putting us under house arrest, beating and arresting us for not following orders, for not wearing masks, for taking walks without permission, for having the audacity to protest their decrees, for challenging their official propaganda, about the virus, the election results, etc. They are reminding us currently by censoring dissent, and deplatforming anyone they deem a threat to their official narratives and ideology.

    In other words, GloboCap is teaching us a lesson. I don’t know how much clearer they could make it. They just installed a new puppet president, who can’t even simulate mental acuity, in a locked-down, military-guarded ceremony which no one was allowed to attend, except for a few members of the ruling classes. They got some epigone of Albert Speer to convert the Mall (where the public normally gathers) into a “field of flags” symbolizing “unity.” They even did the Nazi “Lichtdom” thing. To hammer the point home, they got Lady Gaga to dress up as Hunger Games character with a “Mockingjay” brooch and sing the National Anthem. They broadcast this spectacle to the entire world.

    And the lesson isn’t quite over yet … it won’t be over for a while. The “War on Populism” will simply morph into the “New Normal War on Domestic Terror,” which will become one more theater in the “Global War on Terror,” which has been on hiatus, and which will now resume. As I have pointed out repeatedly over the past four years, we appear to be headed toward a dystopian future in which there will essentially be two classes of people: (a) “normals” (i.e., those who conform to global-capitalist ideology and decrees); and (b) the “extremists” (i.e., those who don’t).

    It will make no difference whatsoever what type of “extremists” these “extremists” are … religious-fundamentalist extremists, Islamic extremists, Christian extremists, right-wing extremists, left-wing extremists, white-supremacist or Black-nationalist extremists, virus deniers, anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists, anti-maskers, recalcitrant transphobians, anti-transhumanists, pronoun resisters, defiant oppositionalists, or whatever … the names don’t really matter. The point is, conform or be labelled an “extremist,” a “domestic terrorist,” or some other type of “antisocial person” or “social deviant,” or “potential threat to public health.”

    I don’t claim to know every detail, but one thing seems abundantly clear. We are not going back to the way things were. GloboCap has been explaining this to us, over and over, for almost a year. They couldn’t have made it any more explicit. When they warned us to get ready because a “New Normal” was coming, they meant it.

    And now … well … here it is…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 23:25

  • COVID Response Sparks Spike In Americans' Anxiety & Depression
    COVID Response Sparks Spike In Americans’ Anxiety & Depression

    Aside from killing nearly 400,000 Americans to date and wreaking havoc on the country’s economy, Statista’s Felix Richter notes that the COVID-19 pandemic is also taking a heavy toll on mental health.

    That’s according to data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics, showing that more than 4 in 10 U.S. adults had developed symptoms of depression or anxiety by the end of 2020, a sharp increase over the results of a comparable survey conducted in the first half of 2019.

    Infographic: Pandemic Causes Spike in Anxiety & Depression | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The latest findings are derived from the Household Pulse Survey, which has been launched to produce data on the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 on American households. A total of 60,000 Americans were surveyed about their mental health between December 9 and 21, asked to report how often they have felt down, depressed, hopeless or anxious in the last week, how often they have been unable to stop worrying or shown little interest or pleasure in doing things – all symptoms that have been shown to be associated with diagnoses of generalized anxiety disorder or major depressive disorder.

    As the chart above shows, the share of respondents showing signs of anxiety or depression has nearly quadrupled compared to results obtained before the pandemic. As hundreds of thousands have died and millions have lost their jobs, Americans are facing a plethora of uncertainties with respect to their and their families’ health and financial wellbeing, worries which are only exacerbated when dealt with alone amid a time of social distancing.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 23:05

  • Migrants Increasing At "Concerning Rate" On Southern Border, Says CBP Agent
    Migrants Increasing At “Concerning Rate” On Southern Border, Says CBP Agent

    Authored by Terri Wu via The Epoch Times,

    As caravans build up in Honduras, migrants are increasing at a “concerning rate” at the United States southern border, according to Matthew Hudak, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) chief patrol agent of the Laredo sector in Texas. He warns that immigration is just a piece of the threat coupled with the pandemic health risk and other crimes along the border.

    “Like everybody, we’re tracking the formation of these caravans in Central America,” said Hudak. The Laredo Sector is one of nine CBP sectors along the southern border. It contains about 135 miles of the international border with Mexico.

    On Jan. 8, CBP Acting Commissioner Mark A. Morgan issued a statement on potential migrant caravans:

    “Do not waste your time and money, and do not risk your safety and health.”

    According to Hudak, the Laredo Sector hasn’t seen a reduction of migrants in response to the statement. It has made over 30,000 arrests in this fiscal year, a 50 percent increase over the same period last year. Hudak added that similar trends are identified by other sectors on the southern border. The U.S. government fiscal year starts on Oct. 1. Hudak called the 50 percent increase “a pretty concerning rate.”

    Matthew J. Hudak, Chief Patrol Agent of Laredo Sector of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection during the video interview on Jan. 21, 2021. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

    He told The Epoch Times that some portions of the caravan of 9,000 migrants will make their way to the southern border. Part of the group was stopped in Guatemala on Jan. 16. Depending on the pace and the means with which these migrants travel, the arrival time at the U.S.-Mexico border may be between a few days and a few weeks. As of Jan. 21, he hasn’t yet seen a dramatic increase of migrants indicative of caravans arriving at the southern border.

    Hudak said that human smuggling is usually achieved with systems shared with drug and firearm smuggling, and the fees migrants are charged feed larger criminal organizations. Therefore, he sees a more significant threat: “We may be talking about one piece of it, which is immigration, but it’s part of a much larger criminal enterprise.”

    The Laredo Sector is one of nine CBP sectors along the southern border of the United States. It contains about 135 miles of the international border with Mexico. (Americanpatrol.com)

    He attributed the trend of migrant increase to the U.S. economy and better healthcare systems, especially during the pandemic. Timing also plays a role.

    “We’ve seen the economy in this country get back on track and continue to expand. That’s always a driving force of people coming this way looking for jobs and work. We have done interviews where we do get that information that there is a sense of timing, that now is the time to try to make that journey here to the U.S.”

    Teresa De la Garza, Department of Justice (DOJ) accredited immigration representative at Catholic Social Services in Laredo, Texas, went through an 11-year process to become an American. Growing up at the border, she used to go to an international school in Texas and go back home to Mexico every day. She said part of the migrant enthusiasm is fueled by more of a change of president than shifts in immigration policies.

    Teresa De la Garza (center), immigration representative at Catholic Social Services in Laredo, TX, with her colleagues (from left to right) Angeles Palacios, Vanessa Guerrero, Sandra Gutierrez, and Edgar Martinez. (Courtesy of Teresa De la Garza)

    She considered the enthusiasm unrealistic.

    “Some of the policies that have changed in these past four years can’t be reversed as soon as another president comes in. It will take time.”

    In her view, the new administration will need beyond four years to make significant immigration policy changes.

    De la Garza is currently busy with many appointments through March for consulting applicants of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. The program is for illegal immigrants who were brought into the States before their 16th birthday. A Jan. 20 presidential memorandum has reinstated the program after the Department of Homeland Security put the program on hold for review last year.

    The local communities don’t want migrants arriving due to pandemic-related health concerns, according to De la Garza. Just a week ago, CBP intercepted 114 migrants in a box truck. Most of them weren’t wearing personal protection equipment.

    On Jan. 14, 2021, U.S. Border Patrol agents from Laredo Sector stopped a human smuggling attempt involving a U-Haul rental box truck in south Laredo and arrested 114 illegal migrants. (Courtesy of CBP)

    According to Hudak, the top near-term challenges are protecting national security and the workforce during the pandemic and keeping up with the evolution of tactics of the cartels and the smuggling organizations, including using more moving vehicles than large trailer trucks.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 22:45

  • "Iron Gulf": Israel's Iron Dome Systems To Be Deployed At US Bases In Persian Gulf
    “Iron Gulf”: Israel’s Iron Dome Systems To Be Deployed At US Bases In Persian Gulf

    Early this week Israel’s Haaretz newspaper featured quotes from top Israeli military sources which are sure to add major fuel to the fire of simmering Iran tensions in the region. 

    The Israeli sources say there’s been a behind closed doors agreement to deploy the Iron Dome defense systems to US military bases in the Gulf. “The United States is expected to soon begin deploying Iron Dome missile interceptor batteries, one of the jewels of Israel’s arms manufacturing industry, in its bases in the Gulf States, according to security officials,” Haaretz wrote.

    Iron dome systems in action, via TRT World

    Israeli officials told the newspaper further that ongoing talks are now centered on obtaining “the technical approval of the Americans to deploy the batteries in order to protect their forces from possible attacks by Iran and its allies.”

    It’s as yet unknown which countries would host the Israeli anti-air systems, which are most often used to deter Hamas rockets out of Gaza, but the secretive talks follow on the heels of the Trump-brokered Abraham accords which saw normalization of ties between the UAE and Israel, among others. 

    This also comes as earlier this month Israel transferred its second Iron Dome battery to the US Defense Department, as part of a deal inked in 2019.

    Below are some key quotes in the Haaretz report, which was also picked up by Bloomberg:

    Because of the sensitivity of the matter for the Americans, Israeli officials are refusing to reveal in which countries the Iron Dome interceptors will be deployed. But behind closed doors, Israel gave its tacit agreement to the Americans to place the batteries in order to defend its forces from attacks by Iran and its proxies, according to Israeli officials.

    And surprisingly the Iron Dome systems could eventually make their way to US bases in Eastern Europe:

    As well as the Gulf states, deployments are also expected in Eastern European countries, out of fear that Russia could endanger American forces, or strategic infrastructure in those countries, said the Israeli officials.

    In early January when the Israel Ministry of Defense delivered the second of two Iron Dome anti-air missile defense systems to the US Army, Defense Minister Benny Gantz told Israel National News that “the delivery of the Iron Dome to the U.S. Army once again demonstrates the close relations between the Israel Ministry of Defense and the U.S. Department of Defense.” 

    Gantz continued: “I am confident that the system will assist the U.S. Army in protecting American troops from ballistic and airborne threats as well as from developing threats in the areas where U.S. troops are deployed on various missions.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 22:25

  • Get Used To Living Under "Subsidiarity" After The Great Reset
    Get Used To Living Under “Subsidiarity” After The Great Reset

    Authored by Mark Jeftovic via bombthrower.com,

    #Davos2021 started yesterday.

    We’ve all been hearing a lot The Great Reset lately, new slogans abound such as Build Back Better, the New Normal, and what seems to be a “new” model called “Stakeholder Capitalism” is being espoused (although it is not new, I wrote about the pendulum swinging from stakeholder supremacy to shareholder supremacy back in the days of Milton Friedman in the inaugural post for this site).

    Recently I decided it would be helpful challenge my own reflexive inclination to suspect that we were all being collectively screwed by our institutions, yet again.  I wondered if these momentous shifts were simply one of those tectonic phase shifts that occur throughout history and that I shouldn’t leap to the conclusion that it’s some disingenuous and ultimately malevolent  pseudo-reality being imposed from above.

    It is fitting that as #Davos2021 begins, I outline my arc in which I tried to suspend disbelief around The Great Reset narrative, forcing myself to pose the question:

    What if The Great Reset was getting a bad rap?

    Maybe it’s true that the world has changed irrevocably, and that change hasn’t been driven or captured by a razor thin scab of elites at the top of the socio-economic pyramid who are setting the agenda. The idea of a reset may be well founded, after all when I first started writing about wealth inequality and crony capitalism over a decade ago, I called it “Rebooting Capitalism”.

    So I started going through Klaus Schwab’s books: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (2016), COVID-19: The Great Reset (2020) and most recently, Stakeholder Capitalism. (2021) It started out as s a curious blend of nodding one’s head in agreement, underlining numerous passages, musing that maybe this is just descriptive, not prescriptive. By that I mean, maybe Schwab is simply trying to make sense of the shifts occurring, and not really offering frameworks around what should happen next, but just trying to parse what is happening and possible trajectories of the future.

    This former case is similar to Warren Mosler’s description of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). It describes how Mosler and other MMT-ers think the system actually works and why the outcomes will not be as conventional economics generally fears. In Stephenie Kelton’s more recent book The Deficit Myth, she builds on this theme that MMT is more descriptive with some prescriptive policy recommendations. But my overall sense of it is that these books about MMT were more about trying to articulate a new way of looking at the existing system and not trying to drive a completely overriding agenda (even if that’s what would happen if policy makers seize on MMT as a rationalization for destroying their currencies).

    I mention MMT here specifically because we touch on it again when I contrast it to Charles Hugh Smith’s concept of Community Labour Integrated Money Economy (CLIME), a little later.

    With Schwab, he spends a lot of time in a descriptive mode, talking about the what is happening in the world, although we do see some of his assumptions creeping in and for awhile, I am cautiously optimistic that if everything Schwab outlines as a policy response to global issues like global poverty, and of course now, the pandemic, maybe it’s just the way of the world and this is the direction things are going without there necessarily being a SPECTRE-like entity in the WEF driving a self-serving agenda.

    When Schwab talks about how a grand ideal of a standard issue One World Government model, what he calls the Neoliberal Utopia simply will not work, I breathe a sigh of relief,

    “Consider  a global government [that] regulates multinational companies in global markets, and people gather in a global democracy and global unions. It is an unrealistic an undesirable goal, as it increases the distance between individuals and the immediate social ecosystems they are a part of. It also decreases their feeling of commitment to the people and the environment closest to them…Though the 20th century neoliberalists once may have seen such a global model as a Utopian ideal, it would inevitably end in the political disenfranchisement of local communities. When the center of power is too far removed  from people’s everyday realities, neither political governance nor economic decision-making would have popular support.”

    – Stakeholder Capitalism p.181

    But then, the more I read, the more I couldn’t shake the sense that when a guy like Schwab means by the word “commitment, what he really means is “obedience”. Schwab understands that people aren’t really going to accept decisions from on high, especially if on high is a centralized world government.

    What we really need is “Subsidiarity”

    Schwab goes on to introduce with a flourish one of the core pillars of Stakeholder Capitalism: Subsidiarity (the other is “Value creation and sharing”):

    A primary principle for the implementation of Stakeholder Capitalism is therefore that of subsidiarity. It is not an untested or purely theoretical principal. Applied most famously in the governance of the European Union..it asserts that decisions should be taken at the most granular level possible, closest to where they will have the most noticeable effects. It determines, in other words, that local stakeholders should be able to decide for themselves, except when it is not feasible or effective for them to do so.

    Subsidiarity is supposed to mean “whatever can be done at lower levels of government should not be done at higher levels”, but my guess is the devil would be in the details. Like in that last sentence of the quote, when it is not feasible or effective for the “stakeholders” in Stakeholder Capitalism to decide certain matters for themselves, those will have to be decided for them.

    What would those sorts of issues be?

    Well for starters, there’s climate change. That’s one of the things that’s already been decided…

    “It makes sense to coordinate this challenge first at the global level.” but then the second level is at the national level, where countries can take different approaches, a limit on auto travel would have significant effect in the United States, where cars are the primary mode of transportation. Taking a different approach, such as limiting air travel, would affect certain groups of people more than others. Subsidiarity supports a national or local level of decision making for countries to determine which path will work best for them to effectively address the global goal”.

    As Schwab blithely bandies about various limitations and curtailments on everybody else’s range of motion and economic choices, there is never any treatment of climate change as anything but a global crisis that justifies the complete re-ordering of everybody’s lives.

    And yet, the same level of drastic re-ordering of everybody else’s lives is proffered in Schwab’s other book, COVID-19: The Great Reset, even though by his own admission in that same book, COVID-19 is a not civilization ending plague:

    “Even in the worst-case horrendous scenario, COVID-19 will kill far fewer people than the Great Plagues, including the Black Deaths, or World War II did”

    – COVID-19: The Great Reset p. 17

    Albeit one that provides an excellent opportunity to reorder everybody else’s lives,

    changes that would have seemed inconceivable before the pandemic struck, such as new forms of monetary policy like helicopter money (already a given), the reconsideration/recalibration of some of our social priorities and augmented search for the common good as a policy objective, the notion of fairness acquiring political potency, radical welfare and taxation measures, and drastic geopolitical realignments.

    The broader point is this: the possibilities for change and the resulting new order are now unlimited and only bound by our imagination, for better or for worse. Societies could be poised to become either more egalitarian or more authoritarian, or geared towards more solidarity or more individualism, favouring the interests of the few or the many…

    You get the point: we (as in the WEF) should take advantage of this unprecedented opportunity to reimagine your world.

    If COVID-19 is a comparatively lightweight pandemic to be opportunistically seized upon to drastically reorder everybody’s lives, one cant help but wonder if the climate “crisis” isn’t yet another global softball. Perhaps in the cold light of day, it could turn out that climate change is either out of our hands (if it is driven largely or even partially by solar cycles) or that climate alarmism is in itself more toxic and destructive than the direct effects of climate change itself, as Michael Shellenberger asserts in “Apocalypse Never”,

    Apocalypse Never explores how and why so many of us came to see important but manageable environmental problems as the end of the world, and why the people who are the most apocalyptic about environmental problems tend to oppose the best and most obvious solutions to solving them.

    Shellenberger, Michael. Apocalypse Never (p. xi). Harper. Kindle Edition.

    Shouldn’t there be some sort of process or governance structure in there to protect the world’s citizens from being overly regulated by somebody else’s idea of what is important? Should there be some counterbalance to these unilateral assessments of when drastic measures are required, especially when those measures would supersede our own agency in ordering our lives?

    But there isn’t, not in Schwab’s Stakeholder Capitalism after the The Great Reset.

    What we get instead is “subsidiarity”:

    Another example around climate change, conspicuous in its lack of coverage in Schwab’s books is the idea of nuclear energy.

    If the entire world is headed toward an eventual transition off of fossil fuels (if for no other reason than Peak Oil) then shouldn’t the safest, cleanest, efficient energy source be featured prominently? The next generation pebble bed reactors and micro-reactors are safe to the point of being effectively riskless when compared to other forms of energy generation and the number fatalities those other forms cause when accidents do occur:

    The worst energy accident of all time was the 1975 collapse of the Banqiao hydroelectric dam in China. It collapsed and killed between 170,000 and 230,000 people. It’s not that nuclear energy never kills. It’s that its death toll is vanishingly small. Here are some annual death totals: walking (270,000), driving (1.35 million), working (2.3 million), air pollution (4.2 million). By contrast, nuclear’s known total death toll is just over one hundred.

    Leading Shellenberger, an environmental activist of 30 years to assert that,

    Nuclear is the safest way to make reliable electricity. In fact, nuclear has saved more than two million lives to date by preventing the deadly air pollution that shortens the lives of seven million people per year….

    Nuclear’s worst accidents show that the technology has always been safe for the same inherent reason that it has always had such a small environmental impact: the high energy density of its fuel.

    – Shellenberger, Michael. Apocalypse Never (p. 151). Harper. Kindle Edition.

    And then there’s also  Thorium, which can’t meltdown and the radiation half-life is measured in weeks, not years. There is no mention of any of this in any of Schwab’s books.

    Under subsidiarity, local governments across the world will be tasked with addressing problems Kraus Schwab and the Davos crew (the wealthiest 0.01% of humanity that own somewhere north of $36 trillion of the global assets) deem to be problems, and reorder the world according to how the WEF thinks things should be prioritized.

    What are the priorities?

    We get some insight by looking at the list of “Deep Shifts” Schwab predicts in his earlier book: The Fourth Industrial Revolution, where he posits what the big changes are that are coming at us in terms of tipping points, positive outcomes, negative outcomes and “unknown / cuts both ways”.

    Shift #1: Implantable Technologies (p. 121)

    “Digital tatoos not only look cool but can perform useful tasks, like unlocking a car, entering mobile phone codes with a finger point or tracking body processes”

    (or implementing immunity passports).

    Shift #10: Smart Cities (p.144)

    Shift #11: Big Data for Decisions (p. 145)

    Shift #22: Designer Beings

    Tipping point in for this one will be when “The first human whose genome was directly and deliberately edited is born” (which I will point out, has already happened with the CRISPR babies in China).

    Shift #23: Neurotechnologies (p. 170)

    Tipping point: “The first human with fully artificial memory implanted in the brain”.

    Together, they coalesce to usher in an impetus toward transhumanism ordered by Big Data and AI that will probably, in lieu of any honest debate or public consultation around these shifts, result in a type of social credit system.

    And that’s what is missing from Schwab’s books. There is nothing in the framework where local communities can identify and define what they see as problems for themselves and work toward solving them. There is no mechanism for asserting their own priorities of types of things the communities themselves may value above the WEF’s “Deep Shifts”, such as full or meaningful employment, privacy, or self-sovereign health care.

    Directionality matters

    In other words, what is missing from Stakeholder Capitalism is that, despite paying lip service to inclusion and community, there are no actual mechanisms for priorities coming from the bottom up.

    What I’ve been realizing is that you can take two systems that have outwardly similar mechanics, like  MMT and Charles Hugh Smith’s CLIME. Both systems describe an economy from which money is created ex nihilo to fulfill or generate economic activity. But from those two frameworks one can envision two very different outcomes: hyper-inflation and a two-tier society on one, and a robust community of involved economic actual stakeholders getting stuff done in the other. Why?

    Because one is a top-down framework where the incentives are set by policy makers removed from the economy they attempt to fine tune, while the other is a bottom-up ecosystem where actual economic activity is a direct result of market signalling and community needs.

    Conclusion

    After reading through the Schwab material having initially forced myself to suspend judgement,  I now am now firmer in my initial suspicions that The Great Reset, Stakeholder Capitalism and Build Back Better  slogans that come out of these annual Davos circle jerks are blissfully oblivious to what they themselves actually are.

    They believe that the role they are ostensibly to serve is as the “enlightened stewards” of society, taking the liberty of reimagining everybody else’s lives.

    In reality, they are the living embodiment of uber-woke super wealthy elites , so tacitly sure that their belief systems are the product of their own personal enormous material success that they can’t really be beliefs but self-evident truths. After all, if they were wrong, they wouldn’t be super rich, right?

    What is being proposed however, what The Great Reset and Stakeholder Capitalism is, isn’t just benignly wrong-headed or egregiously presumptive: it is chilling.

    It doesn’t specifically call for social credit, or an AI-driven authoritarianism, yet that is what its tenets and incentives will produce. It aspires toward transhumanism, and so far all indications are that governments, and global elites seem to be buying into it and singing the “Build Back Better” mantra of Stakeholder Capitalism in concert.

    What it will lead to is The Great Bifurcation, the 3rd Scenario I posited in The Jackpot Chronicles. Much has come into focus now since I wrote that just this past summer.

    If The Great Reset comes about, and I think it’s already here, it will lead to that two tier society where the world’s underclass are governed algorithmically via smartphones, digital, programmable scrip (UBI) and well ordered dopamine hits. Meanwhile the far smaller populace that actually owns all the assets globally live in a parallel universe where they retain agency, freedom of movement, diet, and thought.

    On my mailing list I talk about what we can do as individuals to try and get clear of The Great Reset. Because even if we loathe this with every fibre of our being, find it oppressive and tyrannical, anti-human, anti-spirit and soulless, we won’t be able to do anything about it from the wrong side of the impermeable membrane that will very soon cordon off the haves from the haves-nots.

    We have to defend our liberties, our civil rights and our assets in the New Normal. In a worst case scenario it’ll require forming an underground network a la Isaac Assimov’s Foundation. The Foundation’s stated purpose was to survive the onset of a Galactic Dark Age and preserve the accumulated culture and wisdom of a civilization that had irrevocably embarked on a path that would trigger its own demise.

    Now more than ever it is important we all try to improve things from the grass roots level as the Stakeholder Capitalism rubric may be the last gasp of a system about the come off the rails completely or after a prolonged period of disruption and tyranny.

    Charles Hugh Smith and I are working on a base framework for CLIME that will empower communities to create their own local exchange currency and take control over their own community economies.

    • Join my mailing list to be notified about that and get other advice on surviving The Great Reset.
    • Start setting up on alternative communications channels like TelegramSignal and Keybase (we’re setting up a Bombthrower Telegram here)
    • Support third-party political parties like the Greens if your left-of-center or the Libertarians or PPC if you’re on the right; withdraw your financial support and votes from incumbent political parties everywhere, at all levels (more on this in another post).

    Hold your ground where possible, but prepare for a type of Samizdat communications culture for awhile. We may have to keep in touch with each other from the underground. The mainstream media will be no help and Big Tech is part of the problem.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 22:05

  • Modi Reform Backlash Sparks Chaos In New Delhi As Farmers Attack Police
    Modi Reform Backlash Sparks Chaos In New Delhi As Farmers Attack Police

    Tens of thousands of angry farmers drove tractors and marched through India’s capital on Tuesday. 

    According to Asian News International (ANI), New Delhi Police said, “protesters turned violent at some places. Many police personnel were injured & public properties also damaged.” 

    Reuters tweeted a video showing farmers have gone mad in the capital. Police and farmers clashed during the Republic Day celebrations.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Farmers broke through police barricades and stormed the historic Red Fort, a historical fort in the city that served as the Mughal Emperors’ primary residence. ANI shows farmers beating and tossing police off a wall. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Farmers attack a riot control vehicle. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Chaos. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “11th March 1783 the KHALSA flag was unfurled over the Red Fort, majestically at the APEX of the Lal Qila. THEN it signified the BEGINNING of the end for the Delhi Empire. What significance is this for today’s FUTURE ?? TIME will tell….,” one user said.

    Here are more views of farmers storming the Red Fort. 

    One person compares the fort’s storming to the recent riot at the US Capitol complex.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Farmers have stayed peaceful but today was absolute chaos. These folks are mad because of unfair farming legislation passed several months ago.

    They allege Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s farming law, which ends the government’s programs to keep commodity prices at fixed levels, therefore allowing free markets to dictate prices, favors large corporations over mom and pop farmers. 

    There’s no telling on when the unrest will end. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 21:45

  • Quinn: The Fourth Turning Detonation, Part 1
    Quinn: The Fourth Turning Detonation, Part 1

    Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

    “Americans today fear that linearism (alias the American Dream) has run its course. Many would welcome some enlightenment about history’s patterns and rhythms, but today’s intellectual elites offer little that’s useful. Caught between the entropy of the chaoticists and the hubris of the linearists, the American people have lost their moorings.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    “The ancients believed that each cyclical extreme, mirroring the hopes and fears of the other, helps generate the other. The night longs for the day, the day for night. In war, people yearn for relief from strife, leading to peace. In peace, people yearn to champion what they love, leading to war.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    When I started thinking about my annual beginning of the year article in early January, I tried to formulate a catchy title. Knowing we have entered the thirteenth year of this Fourth Turning, with the intensity of the crisis reaching an unparalleled level since November 4, I decided upon Fourth Turning Detonation. I immediately thought that might be too dire and figured I would change it later. After the first few weeks of the new year, I now think it might be grossly inadequate to describe what is coming in 2021.

    It is easy to get distracted by the daily gyrations, ceaseless media propaganda, political theater, false narratives, and delusional beliefs of both the left and right, as this military empire built on debt and deceit spirals towards its fiery cataclysmic climax. Opposing forces have gathered themselves into position focusing on defeating their domestic enemies, with the left seeming to have strategic advantage but led by hubristic dullards, while numerous foreign adversaries circle like hungry vultures ready to pounce on the dying beast of an empire.

    Last January I wrote a two-part article called 2020 – Year of Living Dangerously which harkened back to another article I had written eight years before 2012 – Year of Living DangerouslyI lamented the fact I had not understood Fourth Turnings will take their own sweet time on the way to a climax, with twists and turns which will differentiate it from previous Crisis periods in U.S. history. My impatience for the great battle to resolve this struggle has not and will not impact the timeline, but the three elements driving this Crisis remain firmly in control, as they have since 2008: debt, civic decay, global disorder.

    My belief regarding the subtext of what has happened and is happening in this country has not changed. I certainly underestimated the lengths these psychopaths in suits would go to in 2020 to further pillage the world’s wealth while using a pandemic as cover to further their agenda of hegemony and turning the world into a virtual prison camp under constant technological surveillance. Despite the timing, I still believe that which is unsustainable will not be sustained.

    “It seems I always underestimate the ability of sociopathic central bankers and their willingness to destroy the lives of hundreds of millions to benefit their oligarch masters. I always underestimate the rampant corruption that permeates Washington DC and the executive suites in mega-corporations across the land. And I always overestimate the intelligence, civic mindedness, and ability to understand math of the ignorant masses that pass for citizens in this country. It seems that issuing trillions of new debt to pay off trillions of bad debt, government sanctioned accounting fraud, mainstream media propaganda, government data manipulation and a populace blinded by mass delusion can stave off the inevitable consequences of an unsustainable economic system.”

    I used to try and make specific predictions about the new year generally centered upon economic chaos, stock markets crashing, global conflict, and various other doom-like events. But those running this clown show somehow convince the masses all is well, the economy is healthy, inflation is non-existent, debt does not matter, college makes you smart, we’re energy self-sufficient, 100 million working age Americans not working – but unemployment was 3.5%, the stock market hitting all-time highs is good for you even though your real wages haven’t gone up in a decade, and America was great again.

    It is amazing to me how effective propaganda is when multiple generations have been indoctrinated and socially engineered in the government school system and decades of boob tube fake news has been programmed into their pliably ignorant brains. Edward Bernays created the game plan and the techno-oligarch despots currently running the show are executing it to perfection.

    “The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of.” – Edward Bernays – Propaganda

    This Fourth Turning likely has another 5 to 10 years before some sort of convulsive resolution, unless it is accelerated like the Civil War Fourth Turning, with similar tragic consequences and mass casualties. Predicting the actual events which will occur over a short-term time frame is a fool’s errand, so I prefer to try and discern the direction and amplitude of the ongoing Crisis to gauge how we should prepare for what is coming.

    I do admire writers like Jim Kunstler who really go out on a limb and make extremely specific forecasts for the coming year, like he did on January 1 with his Forecast 2021 — Chinese Fire Drills with a side of French Fries (Jacobin-style) and Russian DressingIf even 25% of his predictions had come to fruition, 2021 would have gone down as one of the most earth shattering in history. But here we are a few weeks later and all his predictions about Trump going to war with the Deep State and winning a glorious victory for the American people failed to materialize. Trump is golfing at Mar-a- Lago, while the Deep State remains firmly in control and in the midst of consolidating their power by crushing dissent through Domestic terrorism legislation and complete control of social media platforms.

    Even Kunstler acknowledges the Fourth Turning as a generational dynamic driving the events pushing the country and the world towards armed conflict. My high-level prognostications for 2020 certainly did not include a global pandemic used to introduce an Orwellian global dystopia and justification to steal a presidential election through mail-in ballot fraud and voting machine rigging.

    Of course, Bill Gates predicted the pandemic in 2018 and his buddy Fauci, in 2017, said there was “no doubt” Donald J. Trump would be confronted with a surprise infectious disease outbreak during his presidency. I wonder why he had no doubt. Fauci, an unknown lifetime government bureaucrat, is now a media darling, despite being wrong about everything. And Gates’ wealth has soared during this plandemic. My big picture guesses last year were colored by the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani on January 3, expecting Middle East conflict to erupt. These were my main conjectures for 2020:

    • The Fed will continue to run their electronic printing presses at warp speed until the inevitable banquet of consequences is served to all.

    • We have entered the extreme greed phase of this debt-based Ponzi scheme. The stock market is in the blow-off stage, where earnings, valuations, and rational thinking are meaningless. Momentum and a delusional belief in the infallibility of the Fed are all that matter. Who knows how far it will go, but fear will eventually rear its ugly head, and a cascading collapse will make a lot of useful investing idiots very angry for the third time in the last two decades.

    • The Democrats and their Surveillance State co-conspirators have determined the best way to cover-up their treasonous acts are to stay on the offensive by impeaching Trump on bogus charges.

    • The social distress I noted last year continues unabated today as the glorification of abnormality reaches new heights. The flames of division and disarray are fanned unceasingly by the left-wing media to distract from the true desperate financial situation of the country.

    • Israel quietly foments discontent and turmoil across the region to keep the focus off itself. Russia and China support Iran economically and militarily to offset Americans dominance of the region. Confusion reigns.

    • Anyone with an ounce of critical thinking skills knows none of this is about freedom, democracy or doing the right thing. It’s about oil and it’s about the military industrial complex requiring enemies to keep the profits flowing.

    • The shale “miracle” is just another delusion built upon easy money pumped out by the Fed. No one can make profits on shale oil at $60 per barrel.

    • The months leading up to the election will be a circus. Propaganda, misinformation, and outright lies will be spread like manure. Of course, voting will not alleviate the issues which will continue to drive this Fourth Turning towards its climax – debt, civic decay, global disorder.

    • No matter the result of the upcoming election, neither side will accept the outcome.

    • There are no viable political solutions to our current dilemmas. It is just a matter of when and where the conflict goes hot and blood is spilled.

    • I do not know what events will dominate the coming year, but I do know the intensity of hate and vitriol will increase. I do know military conflict in the Middle East will expand. I do know the political machinations in this country will surge as the election approaches. I do know the Deep State will do everything in their immense power to undermine Trump. I do know the Fed will QE and Trump will cheer every new stock market record. I do know I will be lied to and propagandized by the mainstream corporate media.

    I knew 2020 had the potential to be a chaotic year, but didn’t anticipate a flu with a 99.7% survival rate being used by totalitarian minded politicians to destroy the global economy, usher in Orwellian police state lockdown measures across the globe; a stock market crash followed by Fed created bubbles still growing ever bubblier through $4 trillion of money printing; adding $4 trillion to the national debt (with another $3 trillion on the way in 2021); paying millions to sit at home eating Cheetos and watching Netflix; destroying a few hundred thousand small businesses while enriching mega-corporations; putting a nail in the coffin of the 1st Amendment through censorship of conservative speech; and blatantly stealing a presidential election.

    The globalist elite want to keep the fear at a high level to institute their global reset, where you will own nothing and be happy, or you will be brought to heel by the truncheon. This was the year it became crystal clear, the world is filled with good people, governed, and manipulated by bad people.

    By delaying this article until after January 20 I allowed the Qanon Psyop of Trump using the military to rescue the country to pass into history as another delusion of hope over reason. I truly do not know whether the Qanon phenomena (it was not widely known by Trump supporters or most people) was just a LARP being played by former Dungeons & Dragons keyboard warriors or an FBI/CIA counter-intelligence operation designed to keep a segment of the population distracted and ever hopeful their white knight would rescue them from the clutches of the evil Deep State. I am reminded of the quote about hope from President Snow in the Hunger Games.

    “Hope, it is the only thing stronger than fear. A little hope is effective, a lot of hope is dangerous. A spark is fine, as long as it’s contained.”

    The elevation of Trump to president and the spark of hope he would truly drain the swamp, arrest the traitorous Deep State coup co-conspirators, lead his legions to victory over the forces of evil, and make America great again, kept half the people in the country hopeful for the last four years.

    Meanwhile, the military industrial complex raked in hundreds of billions more from the American taxpayer; Wall Street bankers gorged on the trillions of free money, manufactured by their captured puppets at the Federal Reserve; the Silicon Valley despots consolidated their hold on commerce and communication; and the average American saw their standard of living continue its 50- year decline. The question is whether those constituting the “invisible government” allowed too much hope and needed the engineered pandemic to re-introduce fear as their primary control technique moving forward.

    They believe they have contained the spark with their fraudulent election victory; installation of an empty senile vassal as their conduit for the great reset; having their media mouthpieces propagate the falsity of a right wing white supremacist insurrection at the Capital; crushing dissent by censoring the truth through totalitarian social media conglomerates; proceeding with an impeachment farce based on Trump telling his supporters to peacefully protest the fraudulent election outcome; and threatening to destroy the lives of all vocal Trump supporters.

    I am highly doubtful they have contained the spark. I believe there are smoldering embers just waiting to be stirred into a conflagration which will engulf the entire world in a fiery purging of the existing social order, which has exhausted itself and needs to be cleansed. Jefferson understood the nature of Fourth Turnings two hundred years before Strauss & Howe put it to paper.

    “Try to unlearn the obsessive fear of death (and the anxious quest for death avoidance) that pervades linear thinking in nearly every modern society. The ancients knew that, without periodic decay and death, nature cannot complete its full round of biological and social change. Without plant death, weeds would strangle the forest. Without human death, memories would never die, and unbroken habits and customs would strangle civilization. Social institutions require no less. Just as floods replenish soil and fires rejuvenate forests, a Fourth Turning clears out society’s exhausted elements and creates an opportunity.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    In Part Two of this article, I will examine the concept of the Grey Champion, their role in Fourth Turnings, and make some speculations as to the course of 2021 and the remainder of this Fourth Turning.

    *  *  *
    The corrupt establishment will do anything to suppress sites like the Burning Platform from revealing the truth. The corporate media does this by demonetizing sites like mine by blackballing the site from advertising revenue. If you get value from this site, please keep it running with a donation. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 21:25

  • US States Ease Lockdowns Despite "Mutant" COVID 'Boogeymen'
    US States Ease Lockdowns Despite “Mutant” COVID ‘Boogeymen’

    Even as President Joe Biden challenges Americans to a “100 day masking challenge” and other mask-related restrictions on federal land, some of the biggest states in the US  (including ultra-liberal California and swing-state Michigan, among others) are going their own way, resisting calls from the Biden administration to go heavy with masks and lockdowns, which have – as we’ve noted, seemingly made no difference and lack scientific basis.

    Perhaps it has something to do with the WHO’s admission that PCR overamplification may have led to the “Case-Demic” that “conspiracy theorists have long warned about.

    But whatever the case may be, recently, liberal governors like New York’s Andrew Cuomo appeared to recognize that the economy needs to reopen, and quickly. Even Cuomo acknowledges that the holiday spike is fading.

    Notably, the spike in cases from the pre-holiday period is already beginning to subside. This, coupled with all of those warnings about a post-holiday case surge, had led to suspicions that the American public has been gaslighted – or at least intentionally misled, by federal authorities intent on doing whatever they can to tarnish President Trump’s legacy.

    Meanwhile, and possibly related, vaccination rates worldwide aren’t off to a great start – while reports of healthcare professionals and others who refuse to take it have been rolling in.

    Yet, despite liberal leaders’ sudden post-inauguration interest in reopening, they seem to be ignoring the new boogeyman – the new “mutated” strains from the UK and South Africa, which have caused a good deal of panic among public health officials (whether warranted or not). 

    And since the US has administered fewer than 25MM vaccines, more of these COVID “variants” are setting off alarms – causing vaccine maker Moderna announcing the development of a ‘booster’ shot to protect against both mutants.

    Teachers’ unions, meanwhile, are increasingly opposed to lawmakers pushing to return to in-person instruction within 100 days.

    According to Northwestern University epidemiologist Sadiya Khan, who spoke with Bloomberg, “We’re just asking to go backwards by easing restrictions without focusing on achieving herd immunity with vaccination.” The doctor is an epidemiologist at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago.”It’s very fragile,” she said referring to the COVID economy.

    Perhaps things would be less ‘fragile’ if Democratic leaders’ sudden push to reopen didn’t have the most suspicious timing in the known universe, and California (and other states) were more transparent about whose ‘science’ they’re following.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 21:05

  • Milking The Capitol Melee For All It's Worth
    Milking The Capitol Melee For All It’s Worth

    Authored by Jacob G. Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation (emphasis ours),

    Not surprisingly, leftists are milking the January 6 Capitol melee for all its worth. There is a simple reason for that: they wish to use it to introduce a new wave of domestic tyranny into America, just as Republicans did after the 9/11 attacks. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they start referring to the melee as simply 1/6.

    That’s why they continue to describe the melee as an insurrection, revolution, rebellion, sedition, terrorism, invasion, and a grave attempt to destroy our democratic system and overthrow the government. It’s clear, according to leftists, that the intent of the “invaders” was to take control over the reins of the federal government and make Donald Trump king. I wouldn’t even be surprised if they determine that Russia was behind the “invasion.”

    Thus, don’t be surprised to see a new version of the USA PATRIOT Act. Anyway, the original one is getting a bit old in the tooth. And don’t be surprised to see a renewed and reinvigorated “war on terrorism,” albeit here in the United States, with increased secret surveillance, suppression of speech, indefinite incarceration, torture, and even perhaps assassination (a power that the Supreme Court has upheld with respect to both foreigners and Americans).

    Moreover, don’t be surprised when the leftists use the Capitol melee to justify more anti-gun tyranny. Never mind that the “revolutionaries” never even fired a shot. They could have and, therefore, that’s a good enough reason for leftists to enact some more tyrannical gun control. Americans obviously understand this because they were buying guns in droves before Biden took power.

    One thing is certain: There will be increasing destruction of liberty in America, owing to the leftist reaction to what the Trumpsters did in the Capitol.

    The idea is to never let a good crisis or emergency go to waste. What better time to enact tyrannical controls than during crises or emergencies? If they are enacted in ordinary times, people might object to having their liberty destroyed. During crises and emergencies, many people let their fear induce them to trade their liberty for security.

    Our American ancestors understood this. That’s why there is no crisis or emergency exception in the original Constitution or the Bill of Rights. Our ancestors understood that crises and emergencies have always been the time-honored way by which people lose their liberties, to their own government.

    One of the big precedents for this phenomenon, of course, was Adolf Hitler and the Reichstag Fire. Soon after Hitler took office, terrorists fire-bombed the Reichstag, which was Germany’s equivalent of our Congress. Even worse, the terrorists were communists, which made the situation doubly scary and dangerous.

    Hitler’s reaction was predictable. He went to the Reichstag and requested emergency powers to deal with the communist-terrorist crisis. When he met with resistance among members of the Reichstag, he went ballistic, screaming and berating them for not understanding the serious nature of the crisis facing Germany. Giving him temporary emergency powers would enable him to wage war on terrorism and win it.

    The Reichstag gave Hitler what he wanted. Germany was never the same again, until after it was defeated in World War II. Giving Hitler those emergency powers plunged the nation into years of darkness.

    There are some who say that Hitler himself instigated the Reichstag attack in order to provide the pretext for seeking emergency powers. (Would public officials really do such a thing?) Regardless, the lesson is clear: Public officials use emergencies and crises to expand power and destroy liberty.

    We are now witnessing, once again, that phenomenon playing out here in the United States. A “crisis” is being used to make Americans afraid, very afraid. And then comes the additional layer of tyranny and oppression, which the afraid people go along with and even support. It’s an old racket, even going back before Hitler and the Reichstag Fire.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 20:45

  • Thanks To COVID-19, China Is Now The World Leader For Foreign Direct Investment
    Thanks To COVID-19, China Is Now The World Leader For Foreign Direct Investment

    China is now the world’s “top destination” for foreign direct investment (“FDI”). FDI captures things like foreign companies building infrastructure and making acquisitions of local companies.

    The shift came as a result of – wait for it the Covid-19 pandemic amplifying “an eastward shift in the center of gravity of the global economy”, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    New investments by overseas businesses into the U.S. fell 49% in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. China saw its direct investments rise 4% over the same period of time. The success is being attributed to how the country (supposedly) handled the pandemic better than the U.S. 

    The numbers, heavily influenced by the global pandemic, “underline China’s move toward the center of a global economy long dominated by the U.S.,” the WSJ wrote.

    Foreign investments into the U.S. peaked at $472 billion in 2016, while at the same time foreign investments in China totaled $134 billion. Since then, investments in China have continued to rise and investments in the U.S. have continued to fall. Over the last 4 years, the Trump administration discouraged investment in China and put Chinese investors on notice that investing in the U.S. would carry new national security scrutiny.

    Daniel Rosen, founding partner of Rhodium Group, an independent research firm in New York, said there’s little room for concern: “I don’t think one can say anything confidently about the impact of the FDI downturn in the U.S., compared to all the other hits on the U.S. economy.”

    He continued: “It is natural that foreign investment would decline sharply in the U.S. under the circumstances because it has an open, market economy, while China doesn’t. There is no reason to be concerned about the outlook for the FDI in the United States providing that the U.S. is sticking with its basic open-market competitive system.”

    Major names like Honeywell International and Adidas were among companies who invested more in China during the pandemic.

    James Zhan, Unctad’s director of investment and enterprise, doesn’t see a respite for the U.S., or other countries that have seen FDI fall, anytime soon. He said: “Investors are likely to remain cautious in committing capital. The road to full FDI recovery will be bumpy.”

    Joseph Joyce, professor of international relations and economics at Wellesley College, said: “Companies are reassessing their policies about global supply chains, about foreign markets, about their own use of technology. The pandemic is making all these companies rethink the most basic assumption about where they are located.”

    East Asia attracted a third of all foreign investment globally in 2020, the report notes. It marks the largest share since records began in the 1980s. Meanwhile, it isn’t just the U.S. that saw huge drops in the west. The EU also saw a 71% drop in 2020 and the UK and Italy both saw “no new investment”. Germany saw a 61% drop. 

    While experts thought China could also see such a drop, their economy “reopened in April just as the U.S. and Europe started a series of continuing lockdowns and disruptions.”

    Even the Journal notes that it was China’s “ability to quickly control the coronavirus within its borders helped its economy rebound relatively quickly”. China also immediately rushed to shore up confidence from foreign investors at the beginning of 2020. China’s premier, Li Keqiang, told the country’s cabinet in March: “We must implement targeted policies to arrest the slide in foreign trade and foreign investment.”

    Other companies have simply found it difficult to leave China. Such was the case for Seoul Semiconductor, whose CEO, Hong Myeong-ki, simply said: “We were very dependent on China.”

    Tokyo based researcher Ding Ke noted that this reliance on China’s market for many companies kept them in the country: “They need to reduce overreliance on supply chains in one single market. But the bigger risk they identified is losing the China market.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 20:25

  • The Myths Behind The "Capitalism Is Racist" Claim
    The Myths Behind The “Capitalism Is Racist” Claim

    Authored by Lipton Matthews via The Mises Institute,

    Though numerous studies prove the contrary, it is still widely assumed that capitalism perpetuates racism. Celebrities and academics incessantly broadcast the message that capitalism engenders racism. For example, recently on Twitter, superstar athlete Andre Iguodala informed his followers that capitalism cannot be divorced from racism: “Capitalism and racism go hand in hand. And you can’t have one without the other.” Equally scathing is the blistering declaration of sociologist Edna Bonacich in an academic review:

    “Capitalism and racism are closely connected….The huge wealth of America’s white-owned corporations rests on the backs of the hard labor of workers, many of whom are people of color.”

    Despite the popularity of anticapitalist rhetoric, it is woefully mistaken. Some entrepreneurs will express racist tendencies, but if they are determined to succeed in business, they have no alternative but to jettison such beliefs. Gary Becker pointed this out years ago in his frequently cited book The Economics of Discrimination. Becker posited that competition in the free market made it costly for companies to discriminate against individuals due to group identity. By refusing to hire qualified applicants because of race or sex, businesses would lose market share. Racists may object to employing people outside of their race, however, the crux of the matter is that self-interest trumps the collectivism of racism. Although racists may abhor minorities, the urge to accumulate wealth is far more potent than the desire to discriminate.

    Similarly, recent research corroborates Becker’s thesis that firms engaging in discrimination are less likely to remain competitive. Devah Pager in an innovative 2016 study testing the relationship between observed discrimination and firm longevity concludes that these firms show a greater propensity to fail:

    This study builds on the findings of an experimental audit study of racial discrimination in employment conducted in New York City in 2004….We see that 17 percent of nondiscriminatory establishments had failed by 2010, relative to 36 percent of those that did discriminate. The likelihood of going out of business for an employer who discriminated thus appears more than twice that of its nondiscriminating counterpart.

    Under capitalism the allure of profit serves as a deterrent to discrimination. For instance, the strident resistance of streetcar companies in the Jim Crow South to laws mandating them to segregate black customers poignantly demonstrates the market’s hostility to unjust discrimination. Economist Jennifer Roback in an article titled “Racism as Rent-Seeking” lucidly illustrates that these laws were a result of political entrepreneurship:

    Race relations in the U.S. South were in a state of flux in the period immediately after the Civil War and remained so until the turn of the century, when the “Jim Crow” system of rigid segregation was put into place….Municipal streetcars were segregated by law in many Southern cities….Prior to legislation, streetcar passengers in many cities sat wherever they wished, and next to anyone they wished. There is little to indicate that segregation was introduced in response to the demands of passengers, and in some cases, passengers of both races were dissatisfied with the new rule. Moreover, some of the streetcar companies themselves actively resisted segregation, on the grounds that segregation would be too expensive….White passengers seemed to be indifferent about segregation; streetcar companies resisted segregation; certainly, black passengers resisted segregation. Who then wanted it badly enough to work for its introduction? The most likely candidates are politicians who believed that there existed latent sentiment in favor of segregation among whites. Political entrepreneurs could offer white voters something they valued enough to vote for, but not enough to bear the costs privately. Through collective action, the costs of segregation could be imposed on the (disenfranchised) black passengers and the (regulated) streetcar companies.

    Roback refers to such tactics as “psychic rent seeking,’’ indicating that people leverage the force of government to acquire psychological benefits for themselves, despite incurring expenses for others.

    Notwithstanding the propaganda of leftists, rhetoric is no substitute for facts. History reveals that discrimination is primarily inspired by the corrupt agenda of rent seekers in cahoots with the government. South African leading economist Thomas Hazlett notes that this is usually the case:

    The South African gold rush made the natural synergy between white-owned capital and abundant black labor overpowering….White workers feared the large supply of African labor as the low-priced competition that it was. Hence, white tradesmen and government officials, including police, regularly harassed African workers to discourage them from traveling to the mines and competing for permanent positions. Beginning in the 1890s, the Chamber of Mines, a group of employers, complained regularly of this systematic discrimination and attempted to secure better treatment of black workers. Their gesture was not altruistic, nor founded on liberal beliefs….But here they had a clear economic incentive: labor costs were minimized where rules were color-blind. This self-interest was so powerful that it led the chamber to finance the first lawsuits and political campaigns against segregationist legislation.

    Likewise, South Africa during Apartheid is an excellent case study of the power of the market to eviscerate racism. To protect whites from competition, blacks were prevented by law from taking white-collar jobs. This not only limited their productivity, but also reduced the number of black employees able to take industrial jobs, thus creating artificial manpower shortages. As such the South African Employers Consultative Committee on Labour Affairs in 1977 lobbied for the elimination of discrimination based on race or color from all aspects of employment practices. Therefore, motivated by the goal to gain wealth, even vile racists will eschew racist policies.

    Certainly, some owners and entrepreneurs will find niches in which they can cater to racist clients. But for those who wish to attain high levels of growth and success, the data is clear that serving all customers and workers indiscriminately is the way to wealth. Essentially, the power of the free market is the best antidote to racism. Entrepreneurs seek to win in business, and engaging in discrimination hinged on race is the surest way to lose. Of note is also the fact that people who migrate from other countries irrespective of race become wealthier after relocating to America. Yet, ironically, many who lament the racist nature of American capitalism also insist that immigrants improve their lives by immigrating to the United States.

    Both theory and the empirical research show that a truly competitive marketplace is incongruous with racism, but, clearly, saying otherwise confers leftists with the benefits of expressing the “luxury beliefs” of elites.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 20:05

  • Is This The Next Big Hedge Fund To Blow Up… And What Happens Next
    Is This The Next Big Hedge Fund To Blow Up… And What Happens Next

    Yesterday afternoon, when Gamestop and a handful of the most shorted small cap stocks exploded to never before seen levels, we reported that Melvin Capital had emerged as the first casualty of the Reddit/WallStreetBets forced squeeze/bull raids, when it received an emergency $2.75 rescue loan from its previous investors, Citadel and Point72. The reason why the Gabe Plotkin-founded fund was brought to its knees on the verge of a margin call liquidation, is that among its $12 billion in AUM (which is now well below $9 billion) the company had reported that it also owned puts for hundreds of millions of share equivalents targeting such retail daytrading darlings as GameStop, Bed Bath & Beyond and GSX.

    Had Melvin merely held shorts – which it doesn’t have to disclose under current SEC rules – it is unlikely that any of the ongoing fireworks would have ever taken place as the fund would have never attracted the attention of the WallStreetBets crowd which we now know specifically targeted Melvin Capital, and by extension its peers which held concentrated shorts in the same handful of stocks, which incidentally as we reported last Friday, just happened to be the most shorted Russell 3000 stocks, all of which had a short interest to float ratio of 50% or more: a recipe for explosive short squeezes in any market, and certainly in one as illiquid as this one.

    In any case, once WallStreetBets figured out that Melvin was shorting not only some of the biggest daytrading darlings but also some of the most shorted names, it wasn’t a stretch to conclude that it would become the target of a violent bull raid and that’s precisely what happened on Friday, when Gamestop stock soared – a move which was catalyzed by Citron’s Andrew Leff capitulating and stating he would no longer discuss his GME short – and again on Monday when the metaphorical dagger to Plotkin’s heart was the spike in GME stock to $159 at which point the fund found itself in a multibillion margin call, and only a bailout by Ken Griffin and Steve Cohen could prevent catastrophe.

    We already know all this. What we didn’t know is who would be next, and as we said yesterday, there most certainly will be other casualties.

    Well, we now have a candidate for hedge fund #2 to collapse as a result of the ongoing Reddit bull raids.

    Presenting Maplelane Capital, a $3.3 billion New York-based hedge fund which was established in 2010 which according to its description “focuses on a short term approach with active participation utilizing options trading.” Maplelane Capital was founded by Leon Shaulov – formerly of the disgraced tech-focused hedge fund Galleon whose boss Raj Rajaratnam was thrown in jail for insider trading on tips from a Goldman director over a decade ago – “with less than $50 million, mostly from his personal savings.”

    A quick look at the fund’s Form ADV reveals the following in its “Investment Strategies, Methods of Analysis and Risk of Loss”:

    The Adviser seeks attractive returns by utilizing a fundamental approach to equity investing across all market sectors. In addition, while the portfolios will generally be characterized as having a short-term holding period, there may be several positions that are held for a much longer holding period. It is anticipated that the Adviser will use significant amounts of leverage on behalf the Clients. The Adviser actively uses options trades to express views on the market and on individual stocks. The portfolios may have a significant short net exposure to equity markets, although at times, it may be relatively market neutral or have a significant long net exposure to equity markets.

    So a fund that uses “options” to “use significant amount of leverage on behalf of clients” and is “significantly short.”

    Alarm bells should be going off here… But in any case, we don’t care some much about the fund’s investing style or history –  readers curious about Maplelane’s history can read the following NYT piece. What we do care about is what it owns – or rather, is short – because a quick look at the company’s latest 13F would be more than sufficient to send r/wallstreetbets howling with rage: not only does MapleLane have many of the same shorts – via publicly disclosed puts – that Melvin Capital was almost liquidated over, but it has even more puts! Below is a table of Maplelane’s latest put positions.

    These, as above, are the “who’s who” of the most shorted stocks on Wall Street.

    In short (no pun intended), all the pain that Melvin Capital is currently going through, may befall Maplelane, if it hasn’t already: our only indication of how the fund is doing YTD is a brief mention in the WSJ saying that the fund is “down for the year.” Worse: with an even deeper book of puts, the r/wallstreetbets community will now have even more stocks to ramp up in expectation of forcing a short squeeze either at Maplelane, or any other hedge fund that shared an idea dinner with Leon Shaulov and decided to piggyback on his shorts.

    So what happens then?

    Let’s say Maplelane is currently nursing massive P&L losses and it is just a day or so from a terminal margin call, which will force the fund to come up with billions or be liquidated by its prime broker. Unless Maplelane is very close with Citadel, SAC pardon Point72 or another huge and very liquid hedge fund, Shaulov will have no choice but to start dumping its long to fund its margin call.

    Not surprisingly, at least one member of r/wallstreetbets figured out that this is precisely what happened back in 2008 when hedge funds that were crushed by the financial crisis, siloed out their most illiquid assets and had no choice but to sell their most liquid, and best performing ones. Hence the correct observation that if the short squeeze at Melvin Capital continues, “Melvin has to liquidate their other positions if they have to cover these shorts.”

    Yet for once (it would appear), wallstreetbets is actually behind the market, because a quick look at some of the industry’s favorite longs shows that they got hammered just as the most shorted names were soaring, as hedge fund sharks – smelling blood in the water – starting taking bites out of their wounded peers. Smid-cap hedge fund growth darlings like Roku, Peloton and Square tumbled as much as 6% on Tuesday as the short squeeze rampage entered into its third day. Not coincidentally, Bloomberg notes that Goldman’s Hedge Fund VIP ETF which tracks hedge funds’ most popular stocks, slumped for a fourth straight day, the longest stretch since October even as the company’s basket of most-shorted names soared 15% during the same period.

    “The recent squeeze in heavily shorted stocks has been nothing short of extraordinary,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. “If shorts cause too much pain, there is usually some repercussion on the other side as longs have to be sold to offset losses.”

    Why? Because these are among the top long holdings of such hedge funds as Melvin and… Maplelane. In other words, these are the stocks that will be liquidated next if any of a number of hedge funds caught in the massive squeeze has to liquidate their short book.

    And once the reflexive selling of long to cover shorts begins, it will only escalate in a feedback loop that leads to gross deleveraging of the fund(s), more short covering, more long selling, while at the same time the prices of the most shorted stocks continues to soar.

    So will this happen? Well, that’s the $64 trillion question.

    Ultimately, nothing that is taking place is the fault of either hedge funds or redditors or robinhooders. No, the only entity at fault here is the Fed which has injected trillions and trillions in hopes of preserving the “market” while instead it merely made a grotesque mockery of what it used to be. As we noted yesterday, “what is remarkable is how many people are “surprised” by what is going on in the “market.” You throw $20 trillion stimulus at it, you nationalize the bond market, you break all links between price and fundamentals… what do you think happens?

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    One thing we do know will happen, is that sooner or later it will all end in tears, whether with stocks limit up or down. Meanwhile, one may as well take advantage of this terminally broken market and make some money, as one hedge fund after another blows up.

    Oh, remember that basket of most shorted Russell 3000 stocks we put together on Friday and urged readers to buy ahead of precisely this kind of market action? Well, it has more than doubled just two days later

    … and if Maplelane or some other hedge fund caught massively short is forced to liquidate in a margin call supernova, it is guaranteed that this basket will only keep rising for the foreseeable future. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 19:53

  • 'They're Wasting Our Time': Rand Paul Shreds 'Unconstitutional' Trump Impeachment, Lists Examples Of 'Democrat Incitement'
    ‘They’re Wasting Our Time’: Rand Paul Shreds ‘Unconstitutional’ Trump Impeachment, Lists Examples Of ‘Democrat Incitement’

    Kentucky GOP Senator Rand Paul shredded Congressional Democrats over the second impeachment of former President Trump, arguing in a floor speech in a procedural motion to ‘table or kill’ the proceedings that “Democrats are about to drag our great country down into the gutter of rancor and vitriol the likes of which has never been seen in our nation’s history,” adding “It’s almost as if they have no ability to exist except in opposition to Donald Trump”

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    Paul then argued that Democrats are guilty of the exact ‘incitement’ they’ve accused Trump of – suggesting that “No Democrat will honestly ask whether Bernie Sanders incited the shooter that nearly killed Steve Scalise,” and “No Democrat will ask whether Maxine Waters incited violence when she literally told her supporters” to confront Trump officials in public.”

    More: 

    Ultimately, 45 GOP Senators voted to kill the impeachment – meaning they agree that it’s unconstitutional, while five GOP Senators voted to table it and proceed with the impeachment; Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse and Pat Toomey.

    It would require another 12 GOP Senators to convict and impeach Trump – now a private citizen.

    Earlier in the week, Paul wrote that the impeachment trial was a “farce and should be dismissed before it is even allowed to begin,” adding that the Senate doesn’t have the authority to hold an impeachment trial for a former president.

    “It shows they don’t have the votes and we’re basically wasting our time,” said Paul, who believes the Senate roll call would show that over a third of the chamber thinks the proceeding is unconstitutional.

    Republican senators have criticized the president for his actions on Jan. 6, but many have signaled opposition to voting to convict the president. At least 30 Senate Republicans have said they are opposed to or leaning against convicting Mr. Trump, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of senators and their public comments, leaving few open to potentially casting a guilty vote.

    I doubt there are seven, quite honestly. I’m certain there aren’t 17, at least not today,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R., N.D.). He cited concerns over the legality of trying a former president, as well as whether Mr. Trump’s actions, while wrong, constituted incitement. –WSJ

    Democrats, meanwhile, say the trial is warranted and that Congressional Republicans are focusing on the constitutional question to avoid having to weigh the impeachment on its merits – much like most of the judges who tossed out election challenges based on technical factors.

    “They don’t want to be held accountable on that vote, so they’re going to try to make it another argument that [it’s] all about the Constitution,” said Democratic Senator Dick Durbin.

    This will be the first ever impeachment trial for a former president. It’s scheduled to begin in earnest the week of Feb. 8, approximately one month after the US Capitol riot which left five people dead and temporarily disrupted the counting of the electoral votes.

    Watch Paul’s entire speech below:

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 19:46

  • Former Boeing Employee Says 737 Max "Still Not Fixed" 
    Former Boeing Employee Says 737 Max “Still Not Fixed” 

    Boeing’s troubled 737 Max returned to US skies last month. American Airlines was the first domestic carrier to fly the Max and has since operated more than 200 flights. While other domestic and international carriers gear up for a much wider re-launch of the aircraft, a former senior manager at Boeing’s 737 Max plant in Seattle has published a new report warning that the Max is “still not fixed.” 

    Ed Pierson, the report’s author, retired from Boeing in August 2018 and worked at the Max factory in Renton, Washington, claims more investigations are needed into the aircraft’s electrical system and production quality problems at the factory. 

    Pierson alleges that the US and European regulators have primarily ignored factors that he points out in the report, which may have played a role in Lion Air flight JT610 and Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 crashes that killed 346 people. He links both crashes back to conditions at the factory in Renton.

    Pierson firmly believes Boeing’s effort to redesign Max’s flight control system, called MCAS software, ensures a single sensor failure would not happen in flight is not enough. 

    “The paper underscores the likely role a chaotic and dangerously unstable production environment played in the accidents. Mr. Pierson also puts forth three other plausible accident scenarios not addressed in the accident investigations. The 14-page report includes a timeline and an analysis that ties the two 737 MAX airplane crashes together in ways not previously reported. Most importantly, Mr. Pierson’s analysis raises serious doubts as to the safety of the 737 MAX. Alarmingly, the FAA’s recertification fixes do not address the problems identified in the report,” the report’s abstract reads.

    In late 2019, Pierson testified during a House Transportation Committee hearing on both Max crashes where he described the Renton factory as “chaotic” and “dysfunctional.” 

    With the planes returning to the air, he is worried that Boeing and regulators have overlooked many of the issues he pointed out. 

    In the report, he believes the production defects of critical Max parts were defected when they entered service, adding that the aircraft’s complex wiring systems may have contributed to the random deployment of the MCAS system in flight. 

    Pierson said the MCAS sensor failures contributed to both crashes but asked why they were happening to new aircraft. 

    All of this suggests, Pierson explained, “point back to where these airplanes were produced, the 737 factory”.

    Pierson’s report was analyzed by famed pilot Chesley Sullenberger who said the “report is very disturbing, about manufacturing issues in the Boeing factories that go well beyond just the Max, and also affect… the previous version of the 737.” 

    “Like electricity, Boeing and the FAA have taken the path of least resistance throughout the entire design, development, certification, production, and now recertification of the 737 MAX,” Pierson said in the report. 

    “The design of the 737 MAX, MCAS software and the failure to provide vital information and training to pilots did not trigger these accidents. Neither did corporate decision making made years ago, unethical behavior, deceptive marketing, or a misguided leadership culture that prioritized profits over safety. Nor did deregulation, regulatory capture, or a completely broken aircraft certification process. In fact, all of these things contributed mightily to these tragedies. Unfortunately, every MAX airplane ever manufactured shares this same wretched history. The pilots are certainly not to blame. They did everything they could to save the lives of the people who trusted them. The triggering event for these crashes was a defective AOA Sensor part, and quite possibly, a malfunctioning electrical system stemming from a dangerously unstable production environment,” he said.” 

    Pierson concludes: “We can either investigate these production problems and fix them, or we can wait for another disaster.” 

    * * * 

    Read The Full Report Here: 737 MAX – Still Not Fixed

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 19:45

  • Are EVs Good For The Environment? …Mostly Not
    Are EVs Good For The Environment? …Mostly Not

    Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

    The idea Electric vehicles are less damaging to the environment has been broadly accepted by many people as fact. The notion EVs are good for the planet is a key factor for many of those deciding to buy an electric car. This debate has become rather political with a recent article in Barron’s pointing out that some of the research damning electric cars has been funded by Saudi oil interest. Part of the argument flowing out of this centers on the idea that policies incentivizing electric-car production will lead to the creation of more carbon emissions during coming years than if we were to instead encourage the use of efficient gasoline engines.

    EVs Still Charged By Electricity From Fossil Fuel

    It is not surprising that people are going to try and shape conclusions and public opinion to serve their strategic interests. The direction society takes is a high-stakes game since the EU, Japan, Korea, and 110 other countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. This is why countries such as China have extended $100 billion thus far in EV subsidies, the fact is China wants to make many of these vehicles. This is the main reason shares in Chinese EV manufacturers such as NIO and Xpeng have followed Tesla stock higher in recent months.

    Adding to claims of agenda “propaganda” is the fact that a lengthy and detailed EV study by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), published in the scientific journal “Nature Communications,” was paid for by oil giant Saudi Aramco, which counts China as its largest customer. This indicates how little transparency exists around private companies’ financial or other involvement in the U.S. Department of Energy’s research. Some analysts say that Aramco’s role in producing the research is a potential conflict of interest and that the relationship between Aramco and ORNL highlights a broader concern about how some companies fund scientific research only to directly support their business interests. 

    As this article is being written those ready to curse my take on this issue are gathering in the wings. On one side we have those that think EVs are the solution, on the other is an even larger group ready to scream about freedom of choice or how climate change is a hoax. To the first group, I say you are being deceived by those conveniently forgetting that most electricity is still generated by fossil fuel and that EVs also have a few other issues. To the second group, my message is, self-indulgent, self-centered, people with the attitude the world is their oyster and the hell with everyone else. Some of these people are not even open to the idea that what humans do here on earth has any effect at all on our climate.

    Gas-guzzlers Are Often Used As Family Cars

    As a strong environmentalist, I get tired of hearing that “EVs are good for the environment. “While my stand may rile those promoting EVs my attitude towards the four-door pickups driven by many average citizens angers and appalls many others. The fact is vehicle manufacturers maximize profits by prioritizing these big-ticket gas-guzzlers. These trucks are not used for work and should carry a heavy “poor mileage tax.” All the high horsepower petroleum vehicles that fill our streets with engines able to get us from stoplight to stoplight in the blink of an eye and the huge low mile per gallon vehicles often occupied by one person are the bane of environmentalist.

    As to whether EVs are as environmentally friendly as many people claim is a topic that is hotly debated. The chart near the top of this article screams that they are not. Electricity demand is still rising across the world, most nuclear plants getting very old, and the most ecologically friendly sources are running full out. This means the slack is being taken up by fossil-fuel generated plants. Under the idea of, last in first out, this would mean that almost all the juice being pumped into EVs comes from fossil-fuel generated juice. To make matters worse, other issues exist.

    Below are a few comments, or parts of comments, about EVs that have been gathered from different recent articles. I have not fully researched all these but they do add to my doubts about these vehicles.

    • The Greenwashing Industrial Complex is one of the evilest and fraudulent scams of the 21st century. As an example, the pollution and environmental destruction created by the manufacturing and disposal of EV batteries, and also the magnets for power-generating windmills, is 10X worse than pollution created by fossil-fuel vehicles.

    • In Germany about 40% of the energy mix is produced by coal and 30% by renewables – a mid-sized electric car must be driven for 125,000 km, on average, to break even with a diesel car, and 60,000 km compared to a petrol car. It takes nine years for an electric car to be greener than a diesel car, assuming an annual average mileage of 13,500 km. Most consumers will have bought a new car by then. The case is similar in the U.S. but less pronounced in nuclear-powered France.

    • Battery production causes more environmental damage than carbon emissions alone. Consider dust, fumes, wastewater, and other environmental impacts from cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo; water shortages and toxic spills from lithium mining in Latin America, which can alter ecosystems and hurt local communities; a heavily polluted river due to nickel mining in Russia; or air pollution in northeastern China, as mentioned above.

    • There isn’t enough cobalt in the world to replace even half of the current ICE vehicles.  Never mind the fact they have kids mining the stuff in the Congo. InsideSources, says, every EV battery contains cobalt, with most of it mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This area has been an ugly mess for years as the Congo government and armed militants duke it out over the control of mines. Much of the DRC cobalt is then hauled to South Africa and shipped to China for processing.

    Also flowing into the issue of ” less damaging to the environment” is something recently brought to my attention, and that is, EVs tend to rapidly eat through tires. While many people may not think this is a big deal, it is. Since electric car batteries are heavier than petrol engines they need a more robust tire. Also, because of their accelerating faster from a standstill. If you want to take advantage of that without too much wear then you need a more robust tire, these cost more, and it has been said, you are lucky if you get 20,000 miles out of a set of tires. All this is addressed at, https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-electric-cars-wear-out-tires-faster-than-fossil-fuel-cars

    Pollution From Tires Is A Growing EV Issue

    Like many people I had forgotten or brushed aside the thought something as simple and common as the tire was such a problem. This should have been high on my radar because years ago I was given a building simply because it had been filled with tires. The officials in my city were all over the owner to get rid of them. It cost me a bit of money and a lot of work to have them hauled away and properly recycled. With that in mind, below are a few of the many articles voicing pollution issues concerning tires.

    Homeguides.sfgate.com claims; Toxins released from tire decomposition, incineration, or accidental fires can pollute the water, air, and soil. While 42 states regulate tire disposal to some degree, eight states have no restrictions on what you must do with your discarded tires. Even with laws in place, illegal dumping still occurs, presenting negative environmental impacts.

    Tiretechnologyinternational.com states; Air pollution from tire wear particles can be 1,000 times worse than what comes out of a car’s exhaust, Emissions Analytics found harmful particle matter from tires is a serious environmental problem. What is even more frightening is that while exhaust emissions have been tightly regulated for many years, tire wear is not. With the increasing growth in sales of heavier SUVs and battery-powered electric cars, non-exhaust emissions are a growing problem.

    And, www.politico.eu/article/tires, delves into how driving affects the environment in ways beyond the well-known pollutants spewing from tailpipes and leaking from engines. Tires shed tiny pieces of plastic as they wear down, accounting for about 10 percent of the microscopic pieces of the pollutant found in the sea, according to one estimate. Tire waste was addressed in the European Commission’s Plastics Strategy earlier this year. The EU executive is looking into how to cut down on microplastics that may be coming from tires and is considering regulations.

    With all the above in mind, the buzz in EV trading over the last couple of weeks has interestingly been surrounding legacy automakers like General Motors and, even Ford moving strongly in the direction of manufacturing more EVs. This may someday be seen as a huge environmental misstep. The best answer may be a shift to more efficient gasoline engines in smaller vehicles.  

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 19:25

  • Germany Poised To Cut International Air Travel "To Almost Zero" On Virus Variant Fears
    Germany Poised To Cut International Air Travel “To Almost Zero” On Virus Variant Fears

    Alarmed over recently emerged strains of coronavirus which are said to be more infectious, Germany is mulling taking the drastic step of cutting all international air travel in and out of the country to “almost zero,” according to the AFP.

    Interior Minister Horst Seehofer announced Tuesday the government is now reviewing the implementation of further “drastic measures” amid restrictions in the country which took effect in November. He cited the example of Israel which recently went to a full-on 2nd lockdown of the entire country.

    “The danger from the numerous virus mutations forces us to consider drastic measures,” Seehofer said to the Bild newspaper. “That includes significantly stricter border checks, especially at the borders of high-risk areas, but also reducing air travel to Germany to almost zero, as Israel is currently doing,” he added.

    Via Shutterstock

    “The people in Germany who accept the tough restrictions expect us to protect them as best we can from an explosion in infection numbers,” Seehofer said.

    Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared to back a plan that would effectively shut down all borders, saying in new comments the government will take “certain precautions at border,” according to her address before a meeting of conservative CDU/CSU bloc lawmakers.

    “Everyone understands that now is not the time to travel,” she added. Currently Germany has had over two million COVID-19 infections and more than 52,000 deaths from the virus.

    A week ago Merkel announced that renewed pandemic restrictions, especially the closure of schools and ‘non-essential’ stores and markets, would last until at least mid-February.

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    The proposal of shutting off borders altogether also comes as there’s been widespread disappointment at the slowness of a vaccine rollout in Europe, also amid worrisome reports of severe adverse effects and even deaths among elderly patients reportedly from the shot, particularly out of Norway in the middle of this month amid the rollout of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

    A ban on most or all international flights would have immediate and major repercussions for the aviation industry and global travel, given Germany remains a central international hub of flights across Europe but also the rest of the world, including to the Middle East and Africa.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 19:05

  • "Your Order Is A Direct Attack": Utah Tribe Seeks Exemption From Biden Drilling Pause
    “Your Order Is A Direct Attack”: Utah Tribe Seeks Exemption From Biden Drilling Pause

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A Native American tribe called on the Biden administration to “immediately amend” a White House executive order “to provide an exception for energy permits and approvals on Indian lands.”

    The Ute Indian Tribe and other energy-producing tribes rely on energy development to fund our governments and provide services to our members,” the Ute Indian Tribe said in a letter to Acting Secretary of the Interior Scott de la Vega last week. “Your order is a direct attack on our economy, sovereignty, and our right to self-determination. Indian lands are not federal public lands.

    Any action on our lands and interests can only be taken after effective tribal consultation.”

    One of Biden’s orders requires the agency to “conduct a review of the monument boundaries and conditions of the Grand Staircase-Escalante, Bears Ears, Northeast Canyons, and Seamounts Marine National Monuments” and will be done “in consultation with other agencies and Tribal governments, to determine whether restoration of the monument boundaries and conditions would be appropriate,” according to a statement from the Interior Department on Jan. 21,

    The Epoch Times has reached out to the agency for comment.

    The Ute tribal lands produce about 45,000 barrels of crude oil per day in the Uintah Basin, along with about 900 million cubic feet per day of natural gas, according to a document the tribe filed with the Bureau of Indian Affairs in 2017, Reuters reported.

    The tribe added that the order was issued “in violation [of] our government-to-government relationship,” as well as of previous federal directives about coordinating with Native American tribal governments.

    The Jan. 20 executive order suspended the authority of Interior Department offices to issue new fossil fuel permits and leases—a move that could be a first step in delivering on Biden’s campaign promise to ban all new federal drilling permits.

    The Order does not impact existing ongoing operations under valid leases and does not preclude the issuance of leases, permits, and other authorizations by those specified. In addition, any actions necessary in the event of an incident that might pose a threat to human health, welfare, or safety will continue,” the Interior Department said in the statement.

    Other Native American tribes—including the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation in North Dakota—are also big producers of oil and gas and might push back against the order.

    Some GOP lawmakers, meanwhile, said the move to suspend oil and natural gas drilling will imperil tens of thousands of American jobs and raise energy prices for U.S. families.

    Reuters contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 18:45

  • "Inside The Industry, We're All Pretty Panicked": Global Semi Shortage Continues To Slam Auto Industry
    “Inside The Industry, We’re All Pretty Panicked”: Global Semi Shortage Continues To Slam Auto Industry

    The global semiconductor shortage continues to put significant pressure on the auto industry, where manufacturers are rushing to try and find how they can fix (and in the future back up) their supply chains. 

    Major players like VW, Toyota and GM are still suffering from a shortage of chips that are becoming more common in everyday vehicles. The drain on the supply chain has come from a corresponding rise in the sales of gaming consoles, TVs and computers – mostly as a result of the pandemic. The chips are now being used in everything from vehicle entertainment centers to anti-lock brakes. 

    Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Stellantis, told the Financial Times: “I am here to protect the fact that my company is treated fairly. I will look for all possible solutions. If I need to I will fight back [to ensure its chip contracts are met].”

    The unexpected disruption is the first time the industry has truly thought long and hard about the supply chain it uses for semiconductors. Only about 10% of semiconductor fabrication plants are used for automotive parts, FT notes. Since there is no “quick fix”, the shortage is expected to drag on for “at least” 6 months. Companies like Taiwan Semiconductor are, at the same time, still trying to address fallout from U.S. sanctions. 

    One China based supplier told FT: “The sanctions meant some clients redirected their orders from SMIC to other places, such as TSMC. Inside the industry, we are all pretty panicked, because the scope of the chip shortage is too big, and affects too many types. In the short term, we can’t see any way of resolving it.”

    As a result, more than 280,000 vehicles have already been put on hold. As many as 500,000 vehicles could be affected in total, according to IHS market forecasts. 

    Richard Dixon, senior principal analyst at IHS Markit, added: “Everything is run so tightly in semiconductor fabrication plants that you always get this issue when there is a demand surge especially after a downturn.” 

    Automakers are left scrambling, trying to make sure that the chips they do have are being used in their most profitable vehicles, the report says. At the same time, chipmakers like NXP and Renesas are looking to increase prices – not only as a result of the demand, but as also as a result of the rising cost of raw materials. And rising costs could be a small problem compared to where some analysts think the next supply chain bottleneck is going to come from.

    “After semiconductors, the next one is going to be potentially when we run out of rare-earth materials to make batteries. There is always that next thing that they have got to keep their eye on,” said Joseph McCabe, chief executive of AutoForecast Solutions.

    Recall, just days ago we noted that VW lost production of “tens of thousands” of vehicles due to the chip shortage. 

    VW’s China head, Stephan Wollenstein, commented Wednesday: “It was hurting us already in December and we lost some 10,000 cars since then simply because we lost 50,000 cars in production in December because of some chips.”

    For VW, the impact has been felt the most in vehicles that use the automaker’s Electronic Stability Program, “a system of sensors that works with a car’s Anti-lock Braking System to prevent the wheels seizing up after an unexpected swerve.”

    “You see how vulnerable our industries are if only one chip is missing. This will unfortunately continue in the first quarter,” Wollenstein continued. 

    China is the world’s largest auto market and a critical market for VW, who has about 40% of its vehicle operations in the country. In China, VW delivered 3.85 million cars in 2020, down 9.1% from the year prior as a result of the pandemic. 

    2021 was thought to be a year where many automakers could play catch-up, but the chip shortage could stand in the way of an easy recovery for some automakers. We first reported just days ago that the ongoing global chip shortage was wreaking havoc with the auto industry, which has become far more reliant on semiconductors due to “smart cars”, than it ever has been.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 18:25

  • Musk Tweet Sends Gamestop Soaring (Even More) After Hours
    Musk Tweet Sends Gamestop Soaring (Even More) After Hours

    Update 4:40pm: Well that escalated quickly. Just 20 minutes after Musk’s tweet, GME exploded to $240…

    *  *  *

    Update 4:20pm: Just one hour ago (see below) we said that it is “increasingly likely that GME will hit $200” thanks to the stock entering the peak OTM vol “gamma gravity”. Well, moments ago, GME just hit a new all time high $194.50, surging about $44 after hours and nearing the $200 gamma level on, drumroll, an Elon Musk tweet that merely said…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … That one tweet alone added over $3 billion in market cap to Gamespot (or perhaps GammaSpot) whose stock price may crush not just hedge fund but also dealers who are painfully short gamma in the name and will be forced to buy a lot more either now or when the stock opens for trading tomorrow.

    In short, we are almost certain to see a $200+ print tomorrow.

    * * *

    For the third day in a row, Gamestop has exploded higher, and after a brief period of rangebound trading the stock has almost doubled, surging from $90 to as high as $144 (at which point it was halted), dropped and resumed its move higher.

    While there has been nothing fundamental to explain the latest move higher – the bullish tweets by Chamath Palihapitiya and Cameron Winklevoss were discussed earlier – the main reason cited for the latest melt up, in addition to a continued short squeeze of course, is that GME has now fallen in the notorious “gamma vortex”, and one look at the highest strike price in this Friday’s expiring options confirms this: with less than 300 $200 Jan 29 puts traded, there has been an absolute frenzy of calls, which at last check were above 70,000 and rising rapidly.

    A quick look at the volume at price for the $200 calls shows the insanity that is being unleashed here…

    … and with dealers clearly short gamma, they are now rushing to buy the stock creating the infamous feedback loop where the more OTM call activity takes place, the higher the stock rises (amid dealer delta hedging), leading to even more call buying and so on.

    What this means in English is that at this point it is increasingly likely that GME will hit $200 as the gamma gravity is activated (and for those who still need an explainer, please read “All You Ever Wanted To Know About Gamma, Op-Ex, And Option-Driven Equity Flows“).

    The only question we have is whether Melvin Capital is still short the stock, and whether it is about to need an even bigger bailout from Citadel and Steve Cohen. And, as a follow up, at what GME price will Citadel and Point72 themselves require a bailout from the NY Fed…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 18:08

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 26th January 2021

  • EU Drops Recognition Of Juan Guaido As Venezuela's 'Interim President'
    EU Drops Recognition Of Juan Guaido As Venezuela’s ‘Interim President’

    The European Union has now officially abandoned its Venezuela mythology which deemed Juan Guaido as ‘Acting President’ or ‘Interim President’ rather than the man who actually rules the country, Nicolás Maduro (like it or not). This reaffirms a prior January 7th EU decision.

    On Monday the European Union issued a new statement which merely acknowledged Guaido as a “privileged interlocutor” despite having over the prior two years joined Washington in recognizing the opposition leader of parliament as ‘actual winner’ in the disputed re-election of President Nicolas Maduro at the end of 2018.

    Via AFP

    “The EU repeats its calls for… the freedom and safety of all political opponents, in particular representatives of the opposition parties elected to the National Assembly of 2015, and especially Juan Guaido,” the statement said after a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels.

    “The EU considers them to be important actors and privileged interlocutors,” it added. Conspicuously absent were any references to Guaido as ‘interim president’. Ironically it was only last week that Guaido thanked the European Parliament for maintaining his status as ‘head of state’ in Venezuela. 

    More than mere symbolism, the issue’s importance lies in that “The status of interim president gives Guaido access to funds confiscated from Maduro by Western governments, as well as affording him access to top officials and supporting his pro-democracy movement domestically and internationally.”

    Though it’s as yet uncertain what the Biden White House’s official stance on Guaido will be, or if it will change, last week Biden’s nominee for secretary of state Anthony Blinken gave an early indicator.

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    Blinken told Senators last Tuesday that Guaido will still remain the recognized leader of the Latin American country in Washington’s eyes. He also said he agrees with the existing US policy of seeking to “increase pressure on the regime” of Maduro.

    This of course began under Trump when in January 2019 Guaido dubbed himself ‘Interim President’ and also ‘Acting President’ at the encouragement of Washington during Trump admin attempts to foment a military and popular uprising against Maduro. But Monday’s EU decision is likely to weigh heavy on near-term White House discussions on the issue.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/26/2021 – 01:30

  • China, Blaming Covid, Is Erecting Border Walls With Myanmar And Vietnam
    China, Blaming Covid, Is Erecting Border Walls With Myanmar And Vietnam

    China is now starting to build and/or reinforce border walls near its Southeast borders – “stirring up controversy” with neighboring countries, according to a new report from Australia’s ABC.  While much of the focus in the U.S. over the last 4 years was decrying President Trump’s calls to build a wall domestically, China was doing the exact same thing on its border with Vietnam and Myanmar. 

    “It looks like a national program,” one Southeast Asia expert said. 

    The project in Vietnam, which is still being extended, has a 4.5 meter high iron fence topped with barbed wire. It was built between 2012 and 2017 and stretches 12 kilometers, the report says.

    Additionally, the country has also erected a 659 km fence alongside China’s 2,000 km border with Myanmar. The project was completed in December of last year, according to the report. In some cases “the walls are designed not just to keep the virus out, but to keep people in,” ABC reports. 

    The same expert argued that smuggling could be the main reason for erecting such walls. He noted that “illegal cross-border activity has been a major headache for both China and Vietnam since 1979″. The illicit activity includes trafficking of Vietnamese women to China. “At least” 100 girls were sent back to Vietnam from China every year, ABC had previously reported. Some, however, were stolen and/or sold – and never heard from again.

    China explains the wall by doing what most governments around the world have been doing for the last year – blaming Covid. “Before the pandemic, there was no wall, but only short wooden fences,” a YouTuber, who captured video of the wall along Myanmar, said. 

    You can see video of the border wall here:

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 23:59

  • Hong Kong Stocks Soar On Flood Of Chinese Money
    Hong Kong Stocks Soar On Flood Of Chinese Money

    After a poor showing in 2020, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has roared back to life in 2021 and is the best performing index so far this year, thanks to a deluge of Chinese money. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index on Monday closed above 30,000 points for the first time in 20 months as a rally since late December powered by investors in mainland China gains momentum.

    Defying fears that China’s take over of Hong Kong would lead to a crash in local stocks, the Hang Seng has soared and as the Nikkei reports, signs suggest Chinese hunger for Hong Kong stocks will continue for the time being, with investors buying new-economy shares, such as Tencent Holdings, and stocks in other companies including China Mobile and Xiaomi, especially since their ability to list in the US remains in limbo for the foreseeable future.

    While these shares were dumped earlier this month after the U.S. imposed an investment ban on companies identified as having links to the country’s military, mainland investors have shifted out of China-listed A-shares to buy the cheaper Hong Kong-listed H-shares of mainland companies traded in the territory.

    Hong Kong’s benchmark index, which fell 3.4% last year and trailed far behind international and mainland Chinese indexes, is on course for its best January since 1989, when it climbed 14.3% according to the Nikkei. The Hang Seng’s gains so far, at 10.8%, are nearly quadruple those of the S&P 500 index. The Hang Seng closed on Monday at 30,159.01, although it dipped back below 30,000 on Tuesday after China’s unexpectedly withdrew funds from the financial system amid warnings about growth froth.

    The Chinese backstop is providing some assistance to the world’s cheapest major index that fell out favor as the coronavirus pandemic and a national security law imposed by Beijing in June following months of anti-government protests raised doubts over Hong Kong’s future as a global financial center.

    And now that momentum is back, so are the inflows into Hong Kong from China through the Stock Connect program, which allows mainland investors to buy shares on the city’s exchange. This number has already raced to a record $30.3 billion this month or about four times the 2020 monthly average. The buying this month also is a third of the entire net purchases of $87 billion made last year, according to Nikkei calculations.

    Yet just like in the US, where major banks are warning that a day of reckoning for market euphoria is near, analysts have cautioned that the pace of mainland buying will have to slow even though some of it is driven by the arbitrage opportunity the Hong Kong-listed shares offer and investors’ belief that the economic resurgence in the mainland will drive corporate earnings.

    Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, said that since the inception of Stock Connect more than six years ago, there consistently has been southbound inflows, “with current volumes driven by investor hunger for new-economy stocks that have mushroomed in Hong Kong and money chasing beaten down stocks that face a U.S. investment ban.”

    He said that while he believes “inflows will continue as the Hong Kong market transforms into the Nasdaq of the East, the volumes won’t be as high as it is currently now.”

    Last Wednesday, the state-run China Securities Journal warned investors to be wary of a correction in Hong Kong, where institutional investors dominate, if stock valuations “deviate from fundamentals.”

    Stock Connect’s southbound turnover, which represents both the buying and selling of Hong Kong-listed shares through the exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has exceeded $8 billion a day, representing 14% of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s volumes. That compares with a daily average volume of 10% in the second half of 2020.

    “We believe southbound [flows through Stock Connect] will play a greater role structurally in the Hong Kong market,” Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a note last week. They cited three reasons for their:

    • First, Hong Kong provided the opportunity to invest in some of the largest mainland companies in the telecommunications, technology and entertainment sectors.
    • Second, the growing trend of U.S.-listed Chinese companies, including Alibaba Group Holding and JD. Com, holding a secondary listing in Hong Kong is luring investors from the mainland.
    • Third, an appreciating yuan gives room for authorities to allow currency outflows with Hong Kong — the first port of call for investors.

    Among the stocks that have been sharply bid up is Tencent, which is up a whopping 22.5% this month. Other favored targets include companies such as China Mobile, China Telecom and railway equipment maker CRRC Corp., all of which bore the brunt of the sell-off in the past two months after the U.S. banned Americans from trading in them.

    The top 20 stocks by southbound daily inflow this year through Jan. 19 has on average accounted for 43% of turnover on the Hong Kong exchange, compared with 7% for the same period last year, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. The figures are even higher for China Mobile and oil conglomerate CNOOC, accounting for 94% and 74%, respectively, of the volumes in Hong Kong, compared with 2% and 3% last year.

    As the Nikkei adds, the inflow into Hong Kong started to accelerate in recent weeks as more than 200 billion yuan ($31 billion) of new mutual funds raised so far this year is deployed, with allocations to Hong Kong likely to rise to half that amount, Citigroup analyst Yafei Tian said.

    “The higher interest in Hong Kong stocks could be due to a couple of reasons, including laggard performance versus A-shares, inauguration of [the] Biden administration easing concerns over U.S.-China tensions and attractive new economy exposures,” she said.

    Said buying helped Hong Kong-listed shares claw back steep discounts to their yuan-denominated versions trading in Shanghai or Shenzhen. Last October, the premium that yuan-denominated shares had over their Hong Kong counterparts surged to its highest level since 2009. The Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index, which measures the absolute price premium A-shares have over H-shares for the largest and most liquid mainland companies, soared to 149.37 points on Oct. 15. It has since come off that recent high and closed on Friday at 134.84.

    “A true value investor should now: Sell A-shares and buy H-shares,” Li Bei, the managing director of Shanghai Banxia Investment Management, wrote on the company’s official WeChat account. In 2020, “almost all asset classes in the world have achieved growth except for Hong Kong stocks,” she said. “H-shares have not felt the easing of overseas liquidity and the strong recovery of China’s economy.” She said the “undervaluation” of Hong Kong stocks is bigger among sanctioned companies, such as China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom and CNOOC.

    The infatuation that Chinese investors have with Hong Kong is not new: they have been the biggest supporters of Hong Kong stocks during the past year amid questions over the city’s future as a global financial center and as Western investors have pulled back. Beijing’s moves to erode the autonomy enjoyed by the city have hurt confidence, while months of social unrest and the pandemic have sent Hong Kong’s economy into a deep recession.

    Yet as global investors balked at investing in Hong Kong, money from the mainland has been flowing in. Almost $80 billion has flooded into the city through Stock Connect since the national security law came into effect on June 30. That compares with $170 billion that came in from China since the start of 2015 to June 2020.

    However, analysts caution that such exuberance has faded in the past. Mainland investors poured nearly $20 billion into Hong Kong in March last year after pandemic-induced selling sent markets into bear market territory, which is marked by a 20% fall from a recent peak.

    As Hong Kong shares lagged, investors turned their attention elsewhere, with inflows averaging just $3.5 billion over the next three months. Analysts warned that, while Chinese investors may continue buying, sustaining such momentum will be difficult. Still, analysts largely expect the Hong Kong’s benchmark index, where mainland companies hold a 60% weighting, to catch up with the economic recovery in China.

    “Broadly speaking, we are optimistic on the outlook for H-shares, given continued inflows from China and the positive trajectory for China economic growth,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Hong Kong. “That points to a long-term earnings growth potential for many companies in H-shares, so we do see potential for further upside.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 23:37

  • Here Are All Of Melvin Capital's Crushed Put Positions
    Here Are All Of Melvin Capital’s Crushed Put Positions

    Last Friday, in the aftermath of the Gamespot’s historic eruption which sent the stock from $40 to the mid-70s (before it doubled again on Monday rising as high as $158), we had a feeling which way the wind was blowing and laid out all the Russell 3000 stocks that had the highest Short Interest (50%> of float).

    Also on Friday, we put together an equal weighted basket of the companies listed above which on Monday… well… exploded, in light with our expectations that WallStreetBets/Robinhood traders would go down the list and systematically ramp up each and every one of these most shorted names, sending them in the stratosphere.

    That’s exactly what happened.

    And yet, while the market reaction was as we expected, one thing we did not anticipate was the “fracture point” which as we now know was Gabe Plotkin’s Melvin Capital, which effectively blew up today and suffered a multi-billion margin call on its shorts (as reported earlier), and only a $2.75 billion bailout from Citadel and Point72 (both prior investors in the fund) avoided a far greater disaster (had the $12 billion Melvin Capital been forced to start liquidating its longs to pay its margin calls, all bets would have been off).

    What is most remarkable, however, is that a quick look at Melvin’s put positions – which had attracted the ire of WallStreetBets investors who were long the names that Plotkin was short – shows that most of them were amazingly the same as the most shorted names shown above! One wonders how many idea dinners Plotkin attended to pitch his positions to his hapless peers who followed him right into the Big Short Squeeze abyss, and how many other hedge funds had been caught in the conflagration. Incidentally the reason why the WallStreetBets vendetta was targeted at Plotkin is because unlike traditional shorts, it had to disclose its puts in its quarterly 13F. Ironically, had Melvin merely kept its bearish bets in the form of regular shorts – which hedge funds have no obligation to report – all of this could have been avoided.

    And so, without further ado, here are Melvin Capital’s puts.

    Why do we care? Because as S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan told Bloomberg in a TV interview today, GameStop could rise even further after surging 95% over the past week: “Get prepared for another round of short squeeze. You’re going to see GameStop go way higher.”

    The reason: while the negative hit from Plotkin’s shorts and/or puts may have been neutralized, especially with the help of the nearly $3 billion in excess funding from Steve Cohen and Ken Griffin, which removes his incentive to cover shorts at all costs, earlier today we learned that as the hobbled hedge fund cralwed through the finish line, suffering massive P&L losses, countless other hedge funds took its place shorting Gamestop et al. In fact, GME’s short interest as a percent of float declined from 142% two weeks ago to… 139% today.

    Bottom line: brace for even more fireworks as WallStreetbets reignites the squeeze, only this time it won’t be Melvin but some other hedge fund that will be crushed under the collective weight of a few thousand Robinhood bulls. Which, incidentally, would be great news for Ken Griffin. Not only does he know which stocks will be ramped by Robinhood before anyone else – after all Citadel is the biggest buyer of RH orderflow – but once the short hedge fund on the other side blows up, Griffen can just pull another Melvin, and swoop in with another “bailout loan-for-revenue” scheme – i.e., an offer that simply can not be refused – and forcibly takes an equity stake in another distressed hedge fund… and another… and another, and so on, all with the help of a few thousand stimmychecked Gen-Zers.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 23:03

  • House Delivers Impeachment Article To Senate But Biden Doesn't Think Trump Will Be Convicted
    House Delivers Impeachment Article To Senate But Biden Doesn’t Think Trump Will Be Convicted

    The House delivered its single impeachment article against former President Donald Trump to the Senate on Monday, setting the stage for a February 8 trial.

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    Just three Senate Republicans were present during the formal delivery of the article; Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney and Roger Marshall.

    Senators will get sworn in as jurors on Tuesday, according to a previous statement by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), while both the impeachment managers who will argue the House Democrats’ case, and Trump’s defense team, will have time to draft and file legal briefs, according to CNBC.

    The managers, headed by lead manager Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., carried the article across the Capitol to the Senate on Monday in masked pairs as part of a formal procession. As Raskin read the charge against Trump, a smattering of senators wearing face coverings looked on from within the chamber. –CNBC

    Ironically, Trump – the only president to be impeached twice by the House – is unlikely to be convicted according to none other than President Biden, who told CNN he believed the outcome would be different if Trump had six months left in office – but that he doubts the required 17 GOP senators will vote to convict.

    Which begs the question if the entire exercise is moot, then why do it as it will only further polarize the already deeply divided US society and certainly not help the “unity” that Biden is allegedly striving to achieve.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsTrump was charged by the House with incitement of insurrection at the US Capitol on Jan. 6 by, as House Democrats claim, ‘falsely claiming that widespread election fraud cost him the 2020 election,’ and then encouraging his supporters to show up and challenge the electoral college count. According to the article, Trump “threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of Government,” and “thereby betrayed his trust as President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.”

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    South Carolina attorney Butch Bowers will defend Trump during the trial, while the nine House impeachment managers are Democratic Reps.Raskin, Diana DeGette of Colorado, David Cicilline of Rhode Island, Joaquin Castro of Texas, Eric Swalwell and Ted Lieu of California, Stacey Plaskett, the delegate for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania and Joe Neguse of Colorado. (via CNBC).

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 22:50

  • Company Plans Mass Rollout Of Humanoid Robots To Replace Workers In Healthcare, Education
    Company Plans Mass Rollout Of Humanoid Robots To Replace Workers In Healthcare, Education

    Submitted by PFW News

    A Hong Kong-based robotics company plans to mass produce humanoid robots to replace workers across industries such as healthcare and education.

    Hanson Robotics is set to launch a mass rollout of human-like robots that can compete with human workers, something the company’s founder says is needed to keep people safe in the age of the coronavirus.

    “The world of Covid-19 is going to need more and more automation to keep people safe,” founder and chief executive David Hanson claims. 

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    Hanson says the manufacturing process of putting together such robots has scaled to the point where his company can produce the AI machines in large quantities. The plan is to ramp up production of four models, including their best known model ‘Sophia’, and the new ‘Grace’ robot that are specifically built to labor in healthcare.

    “Social Robots like me can help take care of the sick or elderly in many corners of healthcare and medical uses,” the Sophia robot said in a video by Reuters (it must be 2021 if robots are being quoted in the news).

    “I can help communicate, give therapy, and provide social stimulation even in difficult situations,” the robot further spoke.

    The ‘Sophia’ machine is best known for receiving citizenship in Saudi Arabia and being appointed the UN’s first non-human “innovation Champion.” Yes, really …

    Hanson’s sale pitch is that the robots can provide for people who are “lonely and socially isolated” during these times when Covid and lockdowns still effect many populations.

    “People need to be isolated from each other because to be around people is dangerous these days,” Hanson chillingly told Reuters.

    The development and utility of the human like machines such as the ones being developed by Hanson Robotics is a nod to the long dreaded fear that the AI/robotics industries are coming for jobs considered to be well paying and respected.

    During the Covid-19 pandemic robots were deployed in many parts of the world to enforce mask mandates and other social distancing edicts.

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    Humanoid robots have also been deployed in Wuhan hospitals to provide services such as admission and food delivery for patients.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 22:50

  • Beware Bursting Bubbles: JPM Now Sees Only $900BN Biden Bill Passing
    Beware Bursting Bubbles: JPM Now Sees Only $900BN Biden Bill Passing

    While there were plenty of fireworks in the market today, mostly launched by the reddit/WSB/robinhood daytrading crowd who successfully sparked a historic short squeeze and ramped the most shorted stocks on Monday to the point that they brought a respected hedge fund, Melvin Capital (run by a former SAC portfolio manager) to the verge of collapse and only a $2.75 billion bailout from Ken Griffin and Steve Cohen avoided the biggest hedge fund margin call since LTCM, a more sinister risk-off undertone emerged early on following overnight reports that the Biden stimulus was facing major headwinds of opposition, on Monday Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the next round of Covid-19 relief was unlikely before mid-March, futher cementing the reality that Joe Biden’s nearly $2 trillion stimulus proposal to pass in Congress.

    To be sure, while we will likely see rolling short squeeze among small and medium (and eventually, large cap) stocks, the question is whether the market is getting cold feet about the reflation trade (as Rabobank warned last week) if indeed “Biden’s trillions” appear to be headed for a major delay, or haircut.

    What is concerning for bulls – especially now that virtually every major bank has warned of record euphoria spiking the risk of a sharp market drop in the very near future – as Biden gets ever growing pushback on his proposal, is that the probability of a $1.9 trillion plan diminishes with each passing day. In fact, whereas Goldman recently slashed its estimate of the final size of the realistic Biden stimulus to just $1.1 trillion from $1.9 trillion, JPMorgan has gone even further and as the following summary of “what happens next” from JPMorgan’s Andrew Tyler show, JPM now expects a mere $900 billion to pass, or a carbon copy of the bipartisan December stimulus (and it will be quite delayed at that as well).

    The question is whether Wall Street has priced in such a material decline and delay, and if not, just how (even more) adversely will this impact the reflation trade.

    So without further ado, here is the excerpt from Andrew Taylor’s “Market Summary” section published after the close:

    EQUITY AND MACRO NARRATIVE: Today, I received a lot of questions on the fiscal stimulus. Timing, size, and composition matter. Here are some thoughts:

    TIMING – Schumer told us it would be 4 – 6 weeks before the matter was taken up. Why?Trump’s first impeachment trial took 3 weeks. This trial is set to begin on Feb 8 and if we use prior impeachment for guidance then the trial concludes in that 4 – 6 week time frame.

    SIZE – given the push back from the GOP on doing another stimulus bill in this close proximity of the December $900bn package may mean that the pathway forward is via Reconciliation. This would be that a final bill would like be materially smaller than the proposed $1.9T. JPM current estimate is $900bn.

    COMPOSITION – one critical aspect of the US economy is the volume of people at/near financial distress.

    • Consider renters, where ~20% of all renters are behind on payments. The average renters owes $5,600 (CNBC). For reference, US median household income is~$63k and with a 25% withholding means ~$2k per pay period in take home pay. Combined, there is about $57bn in back rent owned by more than 10mm renters.
    • Consider homeowners, where about 2.7mm homeowners, or ~5.5% of all mortgages, have their mortgage payment in forbearance (WSJ).
    • The federal eviction moratorium was extended to March 31 by Biden’s Executive Order. An eviction ban does not create jobs nor clear that backlog of debt. If we have millions of people put through an eviction process, it is unlikely that states have the funds to service the increase homelessness.

    WHAT HAPPENS? At this time, it appears most likely that fiscal bill passes that is closer to$1T than to $2T, with a targeted focus on the most devastated Consumers and small businesses, sometime in late March or early April.

     

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 22:36

  • NYC Badly Misses 1 Million COVID Vaccination Target
    NYC Badly Misses 1 Million COVID Vaccination Target

    After being forced to cancel 20K+ appointments over “logistical issues” that were blamed on McKesson, Moderna’s partner for distributing the vaccine, NYC has admitted that it will delay opening vaccination megasites like Yankee Stadium and Citi Field as shortages of vaccines leave the city shorthanded.

    According to Bloomberg, the city will almost definitely fall short of its goal of doling out 1MM+ doses by the end of January. So far, the city has doled out 628.8K doses, compared with 21.8MM vaccine jabs doled out world-wide.

    In New York State, there are about 19K designated first doses left, and officials are expecting another 107K more this week.

    During a Monday press briefing, Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city is equipped to vaccinate 500K people a week should it receive the increase in supply that it has been expecting.

    “We’re not going to be able to soar until we get more supply,” de Blasio said.

    He said more during a press briefing (see the full clip below).

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    Meanwhile, case and hospitalization numbers in the city have been relatively stable.

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    Jay Varma, de Blasio’s senior public health adviser, said the city is now targeting the end of February/beginning of March to receive a supply of the (still-unapproved) one-dose JNJ vaccines, which de Blasio has called “a real game-changer.”

    Citi Field (home of the New York Mets) was supposed to open this week and operate 24/7 doling out vaccines, with the goal of vaccinating as many as 7K New Yorkers a day.

    Of course, NYC isn’t the only city to miss its target. National targets and state-level targets pretty much everywhere (aside from a handful of smaller states like West Virginia) have missed their targets. Last year, the CDC missed its target to vaccinate 20MM by Jan. 1 by a wide margin, with only 2MM people being vaccinated in that time just 10% of the total.

    Meanwhile, on Friday New York governor Andrew Cuomo announced his state had temporarily run out of the vaccine. But according to the Bloomberg chart, NY has used just 61% of its nearly 2.4 million doses. This as some quickly pointed out “means they have tossed out a HUGE amount of their vaccines in the trash. We’re talking hundreds of thousands of doses.”

    The conclusion: “If an adversarial press still exists, they need to ask Cuomo about this and nothing else until we get answers.”

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    Alas, under the current regime the term “adversarial press” is nothing but an oxymoron.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 22:20

  • Government Waste Thrives In Darkness
    Government Waste Thrives In Darkness

    Submitted by Real Clear Politics, authored by Thomas W. Smith chairman of OpenTheBooks.com.

    In the last 20 years, our country’s national debt has exploded. In 2001, when George W. Bush took office, the national debt was $5.8 trillion. It took around 225 years — booms, busts, depressions, wars, etc. — to amass that much national debt. In just eight years, Bush and a compliant Congress doubled the number to $11.7 trillion. In Barack Obama’s two terms, another $8.6 trillion was added. During the past four years, Donald Trump and Congress fought many battles, but not over this: In that time, America’s future was mortgaged to the tune of another $6.7 trillion. Today, the national debt is around $27 trillion, a four-fold increase in the last two decades. That doesn’t count unfunded mandates. And there is no end in sight. 

    Whenever human beings gather to accomplish a task, any task, without strong and effective oversight, a natural evolution takes place. Whether it be in business, academia, philanthropy, or government, every activity morphs from the original goal to self-aggrandizement. In government, this process is particularly toxic. There are no profits, let alone a profit motive. No concern with productivity. No incentive to turn off the proverbial lights. No measure of success. No motivation to end counterproductive activities. 

    Add to this mix the influence of public employee unions. Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Harry Truman were opposed to them for reasons that long ago became apparent. The goal of all unions is self-preservation – just as management’s is to maximize profits. But public employee unions add two other noxious elements to the mix: (1) defending job incompetence and (2) heavy-handed involvement in the electoral process in a search for pliant politicians who can help them achieve their objectives by spending ever more of the public’s money.

    Now, out of the blue, the experts-for-hire have a new scheme to justify continued fiscal irresponsibility: modern monetary theory. It holds that so long as interest rates are lower than inflation rates, politicians can spend away. That is not a theory. It is idle wordplay, and the victim of such sophistry is the American taxpayer — and future generations of American taxpayers.

    Never in our history has fiscal soundness been more important. The exploding annual deficits of the last 20 years have produced a national debt as a percentage of the gross domestic product that is as high as it was during World War II even though our nation is at peace. Moreover, many severely underfunded programs such as Social Security and Medicaid are not included in today’s debt calculations, although they should be.

    The passage of a 5,593-page must-pass-quickly bill in December was indisputable evidence that the national debt will never be addressed from the top down. That legislation was sent to the Senate two hours before the vote. Who can read 2,800 pages per hour, 47 pages per minute? How can a responsible lawmakers vote on bills they have not read? While our political leaders have repeatedly told us how important this bill was to the survival of so many Americans, they delayed the bill for months for political reasons. A crucial-to-the-survival-of-so-many-Americans pork-filled bill? Some $10 million to Pakistan for “gender programs”? Another $700 million to Sudan for Lord knows what? And on and on and on.

    History has a clear and repeated message: If we do not address this exploding debt, it will bring to life all-knowing leaders, leaders who Friedrich Hayek said possessed the “fatal conceit.” They think they know more than is knowable. Leaders who have all the answers for everything they define as a problem: More regulations. More government control. More taxes. This is a noxious cure that has never succeeded, one that has left country after country in economic tatters.

    Fortunately, the world in changing. Today, we have the means to address this financial irresponsibility, this threat to our country as our founders envisioned it. We are immersed in the Information Age, the Big Data world, the Cloud world, the Bitcoin world. The cost of communications is close to zero. Smartphones, iPads, and computers are a crucial part of everyday life. With the touch of a finger, one click, information on every topic is available 24 hours a day. Buy anything. Sell anything. Today, instant access to information is embedded in our culture. Why should government expenditures be exempt? 

    Transparency has always been the best antidote to rein in profligate government spending. Having instant information at our fingertips gives fiscally responsible Americans a powerful new weapon in the War on Waste. Today, there is no reason why every local, state, and federal government expenditure is not online, in real-time, available to every citizen. Taxpayers should be able to attend a school board meeting and pull up school expenses on their phones. 

    OpenTheBooks has a formidable weapon to unleash the voting public’s ability to address this exploding national debt, this lack of transparency, this threat to our democracy — the OpenTheBooks Government Expenditure Library, which contains over 5 billion (and growing) local, state, and federal government expenditures. Last year, we filed 41,500 Freedom of Information Act requests. We sued several government entities to encourage them to provide us the same information we collect from other states.

    The OpenTheBooks Government Expenditure Library is open to everyone: Citizens.  Politicians. Students. Academics. Scholars. Journalists. Think tanks. Everyone — 24-hours a day, seven days a week. 

    Transparency can be as revolutionary as the Internet has been for the economic well-being of the world. Transparency can not only enhance the odds of the survival of this, the greatest country in the history of the world but, over time, it will contribute to our prosperity, our health, and our happiness. Wasted taxpayer dollars are not just nonproductive. Waste allowed to exist encourages more waste. Fraud allowed to exist encourages more fraud. A financially sound economy, one that works to remove waste, fraud, duplication, and incompetence, will increase respect for government, for the rule of law. 

    OpenTheBooks places the future of this great country more firmly in the hands of the voters. To ensure our elected officials realize this, we have to communicate continuously with them what we expect and how we will vote. I suggest we begin with one clear public statement: “I will never vote for anyone who has voted for a bill they have not read.” Register that statement at OpenTheBooks.com/READTHEBILL

    Obviously, our elected officials are unwilling to address this explosive, increasingly crucial national debt problem. Fortunately, we the taxpaying voters today have a weapon at our fingertips to successfully wage a War on Waste. Successful because our political leaders will quickly recognize that if they want to be reelected, they will have to respond accordingly.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 21:50

  • The First Casualty Of The Big Short Squeeze: Melvin Capital Gets $2.75BN Bailout From Citadel, Point72 After Its Shorts Explode
    The First Casualty Of The Big Short Squeeze: Melvin Capital Gets $2.75BN Bailout From Citadel, Point72 After Its Shorts Explode

    With dozens of heavily shorted (by hedge funds) stocks exploding higher in recent days, it was only a matter of time before the first casualty of said bull raid emerged, and thanks to the WSJ we now have the first name.

    Melvin Capital, which we learned last week had suffered massive losses on its shorts, is set to receive a $2.75 billion capital injection from hedge fund giants Citadel and Point72 and investors (in what appears to be a bailout so Mevlin Capital founder Gabe Plotkin, a former star portfolio manager for Steven Cohen, could pay his margin call). The bailout loan investments are for non-controlling revenue shares in the hedge fund, although it wasn’t immediately clear how much of Melvin’s revenue the two funds would get.

    Melvin Capital’s Gabe Plotkin

    According to the WSJ, the influx of cash is expected to help stabilize Melvin, which lost a staggering 30% in just the first three weeks of 2021. While Melvin started the year with $12.5 billion, and had been one of the best performing hedge funds on Wall Street in recent years, it saw huge losses (and margin calls) as a result of numerous short bets against companies and have stunned clients and other traders.

    In other words, 16-year-old Robinhood traders 1 – “star” hedge fund portfolio manager 0. In yet other words, hedge funds are now bailing out other hedge funds (in which they have invested money), who have been steamrolled by the Robinhood Gen-Z “buy everything” juggernaut.

    The $2.75 bailout is effectively a rights offering for Citadel and SAC, as they had more than $1 billion invested in Melvin as of 2019. Melvin founder Gabe Plotkin was a top portfolio manager at Point72’s predecessor firm, SAC Capital Management, before he left to start Melvin.

    An interesting question here is how it is legal that Citadel, which buys the bulk of retail orderflow and is intimately aware of which institution will get crushed as a result of historic short squeeze bull raids, is also allowed to bailed out its investment in Melvin, which got hammered precisely because of said orderflow. The answer, sadly, is beyond our pay grade.

    As the WSJ reported last week, “Melvin is known for running an expansive and aggressive short book that has sometimes made up the bulk of the fund’s gains, an uncommon dynamic in the industry. The firm has returned an average 30% a year since it started in 2014, despite charging performance fees that range up to 30% on investment gains.”

    The gains came to a jarring end once teenage traders realized that with the Fed at their back, they could steamroll any bearish hedge fund in their way.

    Not surprisingly, one stock that crushed Melvin is GameStop. We all know what happened there. Some of the recent Reddit posts on Gamespot specifically call out Melvin, which disclosed in its most recent quarterly regulatory filing that it held put options on GameStop. Put options are contracts that give investors the right to sell stock at a specific price by a certain date and limit an investor’s potential losses (the WSJ cites a person familiar with Melvin who said its GameStop puts expired last week).

    In recent days, Plotkin had been calling clients with chief operating officer David Kurd to inform them of and explain the losses thus far. One client said Melvin’s message was that the fund still liked its portfolio and that it had rebounded from past losses.

    We wonder if he feels the same way just days later, and if he will boldly go back to shorting the same stocks that nearly put it out of business.

    Finally, since this is merely the start, we remind readers of the post we published in November, when we laid out the Top 50 shorts by the hedge fund community…

    … when we said that “our advice is to go long the most hated names and short the most popular ones – a strategy that has generated alpha without fail for the past 7 years, ever since we first recommended it back in 2013.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 21:45

  • COVID Lockdown Policies Will Disproportionately Hit Black Americans For Decades, New Study Finds
    COVID Lockdown Policies Will Disproportionately Hit Black Americans For Decades, New Study Finds

    “Follow the science” exclaimed every virtue-signaling talking head as left-leaning authorities/officials clamped down on Americans’ rights nationwide… “wear a mask”, “shelter at home”, “no comingling”, “slow the spread”, “think of the children”, “save grandma” were the cries as the virus refused to pay attention to state and local authories’ orders to behave as the “scientist” textbooks claimed.

    And, as cases rose, and hospitalizations rose, and deaths rose, so did the tyrannical trouncing of the economy sending unemployment rates to record highs and crushing GDP growth to record lows.

    Now, here we sit, hunkered down in many blue states still, unable to discern exactly what ‘science’ it is that is driving officials’ decision.

    Along those lines, it seems like a good idea to point out that a new peer reviewed study out of Stanford is questioning the effectiveness of lockdowns and stay-at-home orders (which it calls NPIs, or non-pharmaceutical interventions) to combat Covid-19. The study’s lead author is an associate professor in the Department of Medicine at Stanford.

    “The study did not find evidence to support that NPIs were effective in preventing the spread,” according to Outkick, who published the report. 

    The study, co-authored by Dr. Eran Bendavid, Professor John P.A. Ioannidis, Christopher Oh, and Jay Bhattacharya, studied the effects of NPIs in 10 different countries, including England, France, Germany and Italy.

    And, when all was said and done, it concluded that: “In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020.”

    In fact, the study found  “no clear, significant beneficial effect of more restrictive NPIs on case growth in any country.”

    So, did left-leaning states’ policies in response to the pandemic – to lockdown entire states, crush economies, and spark mass unemployment and poverty leading to increasing deaths of despair actually achieve anything?

    The short answer is no…

    The longer answer is yes… they made the situation for African Americans considerably worse for at least the next two decades.

    A recent study by the National Bureau of Economic Research has found that, for the overall population, the increase in the death rate following the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown policies implies a staggering 0.89 and 1.37 million excess deaths over the next 15 and 20 years, respectively. These numbers correspond to 0.24% and 0.37% of the projected US population at the 15- and 20-year horizons, respectively.

    However, for African-Americans, we estimate 180 thousand and 270 thousand excess deaths over the next 15 and 20 years, respectively. These numbers correspond to 0.34% and 0.49% of the projected African-American population at the 15- and 20-year horizons, respectively.

    For Whites, we estimate 0.82 and 1.21 million excess deaths over the next 15 and 20 years, respectively. These numbers correspond to 0.30% and 0.44% of the projected White population at the 15- and 20-year horizons, respectively.

    These numbers are roughly equally split between men and women.

    African-Americans experience larger unemployment shocks and the effects of these shocks on unemployment are more persistent. Conditional on the same race, the shocks for women are smaller. The effects on life expectancy and death rates are more severe for African-Americans, overall.

    Alas, the time to fix this is gone as Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid previously noted, the die has already been cast and it is now far too late.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 21:20

  • On Avoiding Expensive Mistakes…
    On Avoiding Expensive Mistakes…

    Submitted by Adventures in Capitalism

    Let me throw this out there; the investing game is mind-numbingly easy. You buy good businesses for less than fair value. Sure, we can all argue about fair value. There are always surprises in the future trajectory of a business. This game has some wrinkles and drama, but at the most basic level, it’s easy. In fact, done correctly, it only involves a handful of decisions each year.

    If it’s so easy, why aren’t I wealthier? It’s because I’ve tried to complicate things from time to time and made some very expensive mistakes along the way. Look, I’m human. Fortunately, I learn fast and usually avoid making the same mistake twice. I like to joke that my career is nothing more than two decades of finding creative ways to lose money. That’s not to say that the markets haven’t been good to me—the markets have been amazingly rewarding to me.

    When I look back on my career thus far, I don’t dwell too much on the winners—remember how I said buying something cheap is easy? Nor do I think about the ones that didn’t go anywhere, while tying up my precious capital. Instead, I repeatedly relive my most expensive mistakes. Over a decade later, I still ask myself how could I have been so foolish to keep shorting more Research in Motion (currently BB – USA) as it went parabolic? On one hand, I was right about the iPhone displacing the Blackberry. On the other hand, it didn’t matter because I was a year early. I was stubborn and it was my most expensive loss ever. (Thankfully I took the loss when I did, as it more than doubled from where I eventually covered my short).

    Over the years, I have learned that it is never the boring compounder that really hurts you—it’s the leverage, the complexity and the shorting that gets you—especially the shorting. There’s a reason that I rarely ever short these days. I even penned a piece on the topic; Stop Shorting “Project Zimbabwe” as I wanted to warn my friends that the market is suddenly quite different from what we were all accustomed to. Having been run over in the past, I have a reasonably good perspective on when other situations can run people over—heck, I sometimes even join in the fun on the long side. Looking back to Tesla, it was obvious to get out when I did. I feel bad that so many friends didn’t listen. I feel even worse that I didn’t reverse long—it was that obvious.

    I bring this all up while watching the drama at GameStop. Let me start by saying that I don’t care how confident you are that a company will go to zero, when there are more shares short than outstanding, you’re just asking for people to play games with you. When word gets out that a few large funds are individually short 8-figure positions, you know that someone will try for the kill-shot. r/WallStreetBets gets the attention, but there are killer whales out there, silently doing the real work. There’s a price where these shorts will puke it up and the market has a funny way of finding that price.

    I don’t want to focus too much on GameStop. I had an Event-Driven long position because July 4th is always more fun when you buy your own fireworks. I tossed it at $92.50 premarket for a nice score. I’ve also written a pile of puts as implied volatility has experienced a supernova event, but this is still boring GameStop after all. However, this article isn’t about what will happen at GME; my guess is as good as yours. Rather, I want to point out that you have to be a special sort of stupid to stay short when there are more shares short than outstanding. Hubris is dangerous in the investing game. Shorts are extra dangerous. There are landmines everywhere. I don’t care how small the position is, when a short position goes up 25-fold in six months, it’s going to hurt badly. If you didn’t realize that was a risk, you really weren’t paying attention.

    Remember how easy this game is? Buy cheap stocks and go to the beach. I’d be a whole lot wealthier today if I had done more of that when I was younger. Instead, we all like to add complexity because we think we’re smarter than the market. We like to add leverage because 50% more of a good thing tends to make it better. We often forget that one big mistake on the short side can bankrupt you. The first rule of investing is to never put yourself in a position where you can lose it all. Having been burnt in the past, I focus inordinate attention today on how I can get hurt; not on where I can make the most money—that part is easy. I like to think that the shift in my focus means that I have matured as an investor. Trust me, I know how frustrating it is to dig out of a self-created hole. As a result, I’m amazed that so many people blindly dismiss the risks out there. That is just asking for trouble.

    “Project Zimbabwe” is a brave new world for everyone. Please stop, review your portfolio, stress test everything, think through the implications of 100-sigma events happening each day. No one is ready for what’s about to happen, as it’s mostly right-tail risk—except if you have a financialized book, in which case a move in interest rates may detonate your left tail first. As others blow up their books, your version of complexity may end up as collateral damage. Stop. Think it through. Be extra careful. No one expected GameStop to become a momentum stock. What else does no one expect? What else can happen? Be careful out there. Stop being stupid. A large fund with a great track record, is not immune to these rules—if anything, their position sizing makes them more vulnerable. A lot of rules that we’ve all taken for granted are about to be re-written. NEVER put yourself in a position where you can lose it all.

    The shorts at GameStop are probably thinking that Friday was the blow-off top. Instead, they should be asking themselves, “was Friday a base-camp on the way to the real blow-off top?” Remember, in today’s world, any asset can trade at any price. The price of oil went negative. No one thought that was possible, yet trillions of bonds at negative yields should have been a warning that the old rules no longer applied. I want to repeat again for the third time; NEVER put yourself in a position where you can lose it all. The rules for “Project Zimbabwe” are being re-written and they will be full of surprises. In particular, be careful on the short side. GameStop isn’t the first supernova squeeze of this decade and it surely won’t be the last.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 20:50

  • Superstar Robinhood Traders Are Turning To Paid Financial Advice
    Superstar Robinhood Traders Are Turning To Paid Financial Advice

    It’s starting to look like the new ultra-high net worth individuals are formerly twenty-somethings that got their start trading on Robinhood. Some of those who have smashed and grabbed on the platform are now turning to professionals to help protect their winnings. At least that was the takeaway from a Bloomberg report featuring several Robinhood traders who have done well and are now seeking out professional financial advisors to manage their wealth.

    The piece featured traders like 31 year old Jeremy Johnson, who, after investing $15,000 per year with Robinhood, has decided to move on to greener pastures. “You can save your money all you want, but if it’s not doing anything, what does it look like long term?” he asked Bloomberg.

    Rather than be a bad omen for financial advisors, the pandemic has actually helped the field grow. For Johnson, a financial advisor meant help saving more money, life insurance recommendations and a mix of different types of investments. 

    And he’s not alone: 40% of U.S. based investors said they need more financial advice. 56% of those people said they would be willing to pay for such advice, up 5% from 2019. 82% that pay for the financial advice say it’s worth the price. Investors who have an advisor are twice as likely to say they have the best investment strategy compared to those who go it alone, BBG notes.

    Investment advisor Aspiriant LLC said it saw a push in demand after stocks plunged back in March of 2020. Additional clients turned up during the year as high profile IPOs hit the market, the firm said. Its client list was up 32% in 2020. 

    30 year old pharmacist Tia Ware, who was once taken back by the $1200 fee of hiring a financial advisor, has come around to the idea. She said: “At first I was like ‘hell no. But now, yes, when I see my accounts. If I didn’t have a financial adviser, I’d only have shoes and bags to show for it.”

    After the pandemic started, she said she engaged with her advisor far more often than in years past. 

    Brokerages like Schwab say they have created a new pipeline to financial advisors by taking on new accounts as a result of zero trading fees. Schwab’s digital advisory assets grew 18% in 2020 to $57.9 billion. 

    People are “more warm and receptive to paying for and receiving advice” during turmoil, financial advisor Eddie Welch concluded.

    He said that while Robinhood makes it easy to get into the market, “it’s a little more difficult to get into the market with a plan. And in most cases I think that’s what people seek from us.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 20:35

  • Democrats Have Released A Roadmap To One-Party Rule
    Democrats Have Released A Roadmap To One-Party Rule

    By Phill Kline, via Real Clear Politics

    The Democrats appear intent on instituting one-party rule in the United States. 

    They’re trying to use the U.S. Capitol riots as an excuse to criminalize dissent and banish conservative voices from the public sphere, and at the same time they’re hoping to use their temporary, razor-thin majority in Congress to rewrite the rules governing our elections in a way designed to keep the Democratic Party entrenched in power for decades to come. 

    In the House, Democrats have revived sweeping election reform legislation that died in the Senate during the previous session, perhaps hoping they can browbeat enough Republicans into going along with them. If that happens, the “Grand Old Party” of Abraham Lincoln might as well disband, because Republicans would never have any hope of regaining a congressional majority or controlling the White House under the rules that HR 1 would put in place. 

    Although the Constitution explicitly places state legislatures in charge of managing federal elections, HR 1 seeks to use the power of the purse to bludgeon the states into conforming to a centralized system pioneered in California and other deep-blue states. Congress can’t technically compel the states to change their voting laws, but seasoned politicians know that the states have become dependent on federal money to run their elections, and can’t afford to pick up the tab themselves. 

    To make matters worse, HR 1 declares that Congress possesses “ultimate supervisory power over Federal elections” — an extraordinary usurpation of governmental authority that the Founders specifically assigned to the states. 

    The 2020 election witnessed private interests dictating the manner in which the election was conducted in the nation’s urban cores. Mark Zuckerberg alone poured $419 million into this scheme

    The goal of centralizing power in the hands of the federal government has long been at the heart of liberal politics, and this legislation demonstrates why. 

    HR 1 would codify the very practices — many of them currently illegal in most states — that created widespread irregularities in the 2020 elections and contributed greatly to public mistrust of the electoral process. In 2020, state and local officials used the COVID-19 pandemic as justification to ignore or deliberately violate state election laws. If HR 1 is enacted, they won’t need any such excuse in 2022 because the states will have no choice but to implement policies such as legalized ballot harvesting, early voting, and universal mail-in voting, as well as repeal of voter ID laws, signature-matching laws, and other ballot security measures. 

    For example, HR 1 would allow ballot harvesting on steroids. Voters would — for the first time — have the ability to print out their ballots at home, creating a gaping security hole that could easily be exploited by either domestic or foreign interests. The legislation also allows third parties to collect ballots from an unlimited number of absentee voters and submit them through ballot drop boxes, dramatically increasing the risk that vulnerable Americans could be bullied, bribed, or blackmailed for their votes without the protection of election workers. 

    Under the rules outlined in HR 1, election observers wouldn’t even be able to challenge the legitimacy of ballots without written documentation, making it virtually impossible to document or detect election irregularities. 

    Nothing in this legislation could plausibly be interpreted as a means of restoring public confidence in our elections — but the reforms establish a clear roadmap to one-party rule. This is especially so when you consider the new proposals for the war on “domestic terror” aimed directly at the free expression of American citizens. 

    We can only hope that principled Republicans and Democrats will reject this direct assault on American democracy and individual freedom, and resist the institutionalists in both parties who believe the American people need them to protect us from ourselves. 

    The way to create one-party rule is to control information and control the way a nation selects its leaders. The political left has joined with Big Tech and government careerists in aggressively trying to do both.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 20:00

  • "Greatest Rise In Inequality Ever": The Last 6 Months Saw Sharpest Rise In US Poverty In Half-Century
    “Greatest Rise In Inequality Ever”: The Last 6 Months Saw Sharpest Rise In US Poverty In Half-Century

    A new poverty estimate seeking to analyze the nationwide impact of government relief measures which expired just at the end of last month has found that the latter half of 2020 marked the sharpest rise in the US poverty rate since the 1960s. The study released Monday and presented in Bloomberg finds that the poverty rate increased by 2.4% during the second half of 2020, following last spring and early summer COVID-19 rolling lockdowns in various parts of the country.

    This amounts to an additional 8 million Americans being considered newly poor, nearly double the highest annual increase in poverty in over a half-century.

    The study authors – economists Bruce Meyer of the University of Chicago, and James Sullivan of the University of Notre Dame – further found that Black Americans were among the hardest hit, and more that twice as likely to fall below the poverty line as White Americans.

    According to Bloomberg’s summary of the results, “The researchers found that the stimulus checks the federal government issued in the spring helped forestall the poverty rate from rising even faster.”

    Getty Images

    Bloomberg recalls further that “In late December, $900 billion in addition federal relief aid was passed, and President Joe Biden is asking Congress for an additional $1.9 trillion in stimulus.”

    The US trend of the past six months is also echoed more broadly in global data showing COVID-fueled poverty across much of the world.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As featured in a recent Oxfam study which also sought to assess the financial impact of the pandemic  up to 500 million people globally have been newly pushed into poverty, while at the same time the world’s 10 richest men made a combined $540 billion over the same time frame.

    Oxfam is calling it evidence of the “greatest rise in inequality since records began.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 19:35

  • Carlsbad, CA Says No More to Lockdowns. May It Be A National Model
    Carlsbad, CA Says No More to Lockdowns. May It Be A National Model

    By John Tamny, of the American Institute on Economic Research

    It’s been said off and on over the decades that California is a bellwether of sorts. What happens there is a preview of what’s going to happen elsewhere in the U.S.

    In the late 1970s the passage of Proposition 13 foretold a national tax revolt. Californians used a referendum to limit the tax power of grasping politicians in the Golden State, and the pushback eventually went national.

    A different, more local revolt began last weekend in Carlsbad, CA, a town just north of San Diego. Its restaurant and bar owners decided they’re weren’t going to take it anymore. They’re no longer going to allow witless politicians to destroy what they’ve worked so long to build. They’re going to open their businesses to eager customers.

    Some will ask what California legislators right up to Governor Gavin Newsom will say. Ideally the mini-revolt will wake these sick people up to the extraordinary damage they’re doing, but if not it’s worth reminding everyone that the very individuals in government who are presently limiting your right to work, operate your business, and live your life as you desire, used to not be in government. Some even used to have regular jobs in the private sector. The main thing is that they’re not experts on medical matters, nor are they abnormally smart. They just happen to be good at politics. They’re in no position to tell us how to live, or operate our businesses, or whether or not we should have a job to go to. They’re just people who want power, prestige and money, only they want it the easy way.

    This is worth remembering as businesses, jobs and life as we know it vanish thanks to politicians imposing their force on us. Why allow them to do that? People should be free to do as they wish with their property. Period. This includes Twitter and Facebook if they choose to censor comments and commenters. If Amazon chooses to not do business with certain people or companies, that’s its right. If bakers choose not to bake cakes for events that offend their personal morality, that’s their right. Business owners who want to meet the needs of willing customers while a virus is spreading should be free to open up as they see fit.

    Interesting and happy about scenic, seaside Carlsbad is that in a state that is largely locked down, in a state where most restaurants can’t even serve customers outside, Carlsbad is open. Its restaurants and bars are open outdoors and indoors. Some of the bars are packed. Please learn more about this happy story of protest against what is ridiculous. Please support it.

    Of course, the owners of the bars and restaurants in OPEN (!!!!!) Carlsbad are far more diplomatic than yours truly. They’re calling their exercise of their property rights a “peaceful protest.” And peaceful it is. Nothing could be more peaceful than operating a business that can only succeed insofar as its patrons are pleased for having patronized it, only to come back over and over again.

    Furthermore, the protest is one lodged under desperate circumstances. These businesses can’t not be open. If they remain shuttered by decree, or limited in their ability to serve their customers by decree, they will close for good. Though some business owners may have political leanings, this is not political. It’s about survival, and it’s something all who consider themselves decent should cheer. This includes those who’ve not been out in public or inside a public venue since March. Freedom is its own virtue.

    Arguably the most important supporters of the beautiful story unfolding in Carlsbad would be other business owners. They must open if they feel inclined to re-open. The simple truth is that the power-mad can’t arrest everyone. If restaurants and bars open en masse in California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and every other city and state overseen by authoritarians, what can the authorities do? There aren’t enough jails and handcuffs, and there aren’t enough guns to subdue a mass, nationwide, owner, employee and customer protest against a tragic lapse of reason.

    Crucial about what’s happening in Carlsbad, and that should happen everywhere, is that there’s nothing violent about it. It’s much more than just a “peaceful protest.” It’s reasonable. It’s common sense. It’s businesses, workers, and customers exercising their right operate, work, and live as they want. They’re not forcing their values on others. Businesses that choose to stay closed should do just that. Worried employees should stay home. The people fearful of the virus should similarly stay home.

    For the rest of us who feel inclined to resume living, it’s time for us to do that. Again, those who are sickeningly intoxicated with power can’t incarcerate us all. As for the businesses terrorized by the political class in Carlsbad, they decided they no longer have any choice. Given the choice between going out of business and defying politicians, they chose the latter. Good for them.

    Let’s again support what’s happening in Carslbad, including purchasing gift certificates from its restaurants and bars. Let’s also emulate them. May Carlsbad be a national model!

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 19:10

  • Is This The Reason Behind's Today's Surreal Market Action
    Is This The Reason Behind’s Today’s Surreal Market Action

    Between the insane rollercoaster action in the most shorted names, which exploded out of the gate only to get hammered the moment the broader market suddenly plunged 60 points in just a few minutes (one wonders which dealer(s) was so short gamma in the most shorted names, they had no choice but to hammer the entire market to break the upward momentum wave and avoid getting crushed), one word describes today’s market action so far: surreal.

    And while it would probably be unwise to try to make any sense of this idiocy, there likely is some fact/fundamental based reason for today’s market action besides merely a reaction to the berserk technicals and market action.

    So courtesy of Bear Traps report Larry McDonald, here is one attempt at explaining why stocks are suddenly looking quite a bit gappy, and it has to do with the Fed finally pulling some of the punch bowl away::

    Our 21 Lehman Systemic Indicators are screaming higher. The inmates are running the asylum and the probability of the Federal Reserve breaking out their creative “macro prudential” tool box is the highest in years. U.S. central bankers are no longer Trump constrained, the banking system is strong but the equity market has far more in common with Steve Wynn (Vegas) than Warren Buffett (Omaha).

    We think the Fed sends a shot over the bow very soon. Our social justice, inequality embarrassed Fed is not happy. The will not taper but they can make serious threats to risk takers. We have an explosion of SPAC / IPO issuance, $850B of margin debt or 75% above 2015 levels, the most shorted equities up 75% vs. 16% for the S&P 500 since October (bulls running over bears), record high call vs. put volume with the little guy leading the charge SELL Mortimer Sell. The risk reward is atrocious from a long perspective in U.S. equities.

    Impeachment Threat to Reflation: Moves to the Senate floor next week. Impact; 1 . Pushes out the Fiscal timeline.  2 . Similar to the GOP immediately trying to take down Obamacare, the signature achievement of the previous administration , on day one of the Trump administration. The move was Unwise and Not helpful to the fiscal policy path.

    Remember, the tax cuts were sold to us as a certainty in Q1 2017, they didn’t arrive until late Q4 that year. In our view, this speaks to a potential rally in bonds / USD for the next few weeks.

    Best case scenario, we have a $1.9T fiscal plan coming in late February early March with the current the bid / offer at $800B to $1.9T. However, any additional variant / mutations Covid risk increase will game the spread in the direction of the offer side if the  mpeachment doesn’t blow up the deal altogether.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 18:57

  • The Secret History Of America's 'War On Terror' Mythology
    The Secret History Of America’s ‘War On Terror’ Mythology

    A new book exposes the alternative history of the so-called “war on terror” which has in the past decades unraveled the Middle East, resulted in failed states from Libya to Syria to Yemen, and has fueled the rise of ISIS and led to a stronger al-Qaeda in places like Syria and North Africa: Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism.

    Author Scott Horton of The Libertarian Institute and AntiWar.com begins his unrelentingly detailed and devastating ‘secret history’ and deconstruction of the ‘terror wars’ as follows: “On September 11, 2001, there were no more than a few hundred al Qaeda members hiding out in Afghanistan. Three months later, when the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) paramilitaries, U.S. Army Delta Force and U.S. Air Force finished bombing them, and Osama bin Laden had escaped to Pakistan, there were not enough of the terrorists left alive to fill a 757.

    Horton goes on to conclude that, “Now, 20 years after that brief, one-sided victory, there are tens of thousands of bin Ladenite jihadists thriving in lands from Nigeria to the Philippines. Recently, and for almost three years, some even claimed their own divinely ordained caliphate, or Islamic State, temporarily erasing the border between Iraq and Syria. Local chapters of their group keep popping up all over the region. The State Department consistently reports a vast increase in the number of global terrorism incidents compared to the pre- September 11th era. Al Qaeda, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and their ‘lone wolf’ copycats have carried out multiple, deadly attacks in more than a dozen major Western cities in the past decade, including Brussels, Paris, Berlin, London, San Bernardino, Orlando, New York City, Pensacola and Corpus Christi.”

    Former Congressman Ron Paul writes of the new book:

    Nothing has fueled the abuse of government power in the last 20 years like the ‘War on Terrorism.’ Scott Horton’s essential new book, Enough Already, is the key to understanding why it’s not too late to end the wars and save our country. Three administrations in a row have promised us a more restrained foreign policy. It is time we insisted on it.

    Below is an authorized excerpt from Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism.

    * * *

    Expediting the Chaotic Collapse

    Dick Cheney’s Middle East adviser, neoconservative strategist David Wurmser, wrote in his 1996 article “Coping with Crumbling States” that the U.S. should seek to “expedite the chaotic collapse” of Syria as soon as they were done overthrowing Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Unfortunately for Wurmser, the opportunity to destroy Syria did not come until after he was out of power. Americans concerned about bin Ladenite terrorism might have wondered why in the world they should want to spread any more chaos in the region after the catastrophe of Iraq War II.

    In an age of international terrorism waged by radical Islamists, Bashar al-Assad was a secularist who shaved his chin every morning, wore a threepiece suit and was an old acquaintance of Secretary of State John Kerry. His father’s government had joined George H.W. Bush’s coalition against Iraq in 1991 and cooperated with America and Israel at the Madrid and Oslo meetings. Bashar al-Assad had voted for America’s UN Security Council Resolution 1441 mandating the return of the weapons inspectors to Iraq. He had also been willing to negotiate with Israel over the Golan Heights in the George W. Bush years, before Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice intervened and forced the Israelis to halt the talks.

    Assad was a “reformer,” Hillary Clinton had said. Assad’s regime had been torturing people for the CIA as part of the “extraordinary rendition” program since her husband’s administration in the 1990s. Former CIA officer Robert Baer seemed to be honest about his own role in the program when he told the New Statesman that, “If you want a serious interrogation, you send a prisoner to Jordan. If you want them to be tortured, you send them to Syria. If you want someone to disappear — never to see them again — you send them to Egypt.” The George W. Bush administration, in a case of mistaken identity, handed an innocent Canadian named Maher Arar over to the Syrians to be tortured.

    As revealed in leaked State Department cables, in 2010 Assad’s government invited the U.S. to join their efforts against bin Ladenites crossing the border from Syria into Iraq.

    Assad was not a full-fledged American sock-puppet dictator like Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, but he had been mostly cooperative in the War on Terrorism and certainly had no love for al Qaeda. Syria had been accused of helping to facilitate the entry of foreign fighters into Iraq earlier during Iraq War II, though it was never proven that his government was behind the jihadists’ border crossings. If it were true that Assad had done so, his motives would have been defensive in nature, and understandable, if not justifiable: to get those dangerous terrorists out of his country and help keep the United States bogged down in Iraq before they could move on to the next stage of their publicly stated plan: overthrowing him.

    When Nancy Pelosi embraced Bashar al-Assad in April 2007, via The National Review

    In 2007, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went to Syria. There she visited the Omayyad mosque in Old Damascus and met with President Assad for three hours, insisting despite the Bush administration’s objections that diplomacy with Syria was vital. “We came in friendship, hope and determined that the road to Damascus is a road to peace,” she said. In 2011, John Kerry told the Carnegie Endowment that “President Assad has been very generous with me in terms of the discussions we have had. And when I last went to — the last several trips to Syria — I asked President Assad to do certain things to build the relationship with the United States.” According to the AP, Kerry listed six requests for Assad, including working together on Iraqi border security and said the Syrians fulfilled them all.

    In any case, the Syrian government certainly never attacked or threatened the United States. Intervening in that country did not serve to protect the American people in any way. The hawks would agree and claim this shows that selfless humanitarian concerns were at the core of their policy. The American Superman had to go and save the nice people. But that is not what the U.S. role in Syria was about. The policy was regime change.

    But after the rise of al Qaeda in Iraq in the aftermath of Iraq War II, the obvious question was if the U.S. did succeed in overthrowing the Ba’athist regime in Syria, what organized force in the country could possibly replace it? The obvious answer was the Muslim Brotherhood if you’re lucky. The Brotherhood had posed a major problem for the Syrian government in the past. In 1982, Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad, had massacred thousands of members of the Brotherhood, their supporters and nearby civilians in the town of Hama to successfully repress a fouryear armed Islamist uprising. Though the group remained mostly underground, it was obvious years before the war began that any attempt to overthrow the Ba’athists would benefit the Brotherhood first. The U.S. government knew it too. They did it anyway.

    * * *

    You can find Scott Horton’s new book Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism, here.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 18:50

  • Sen. Leahy To Preside Over Trump’s Impeachment Trial
    Sen. Leahy To Preside Over Trump’s Impeachment Trial

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

    Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) arrives at the US Capitol on Jan. 25, 2021. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

    Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), president pro tempore of the Senate, will preside over next month’s impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump, Leahy said on Jan. 25.

    Leahy is 80. Both parties traditionally choose their eldest member to serve in the pro tempore role, which is essentially a backup for the president of the Senate, whenever they gain a majority in the body.

    The president pro tempore has historically presided over Senate impeachment trials of non-presidents,” Leahy said in a statement. “When presiding over an impeachment trial, the president pro tempore takes an additional special oath to do impartial justice according to the Constitution and the laws. It is an oath that I take extraordinarily seriously.

    “I consider holding the office of the president pro tempore and the responsibilities that come with it to be one of the highest honors and most serious responsibilities of my career,” he said. “When I preside over the impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump, I will not waver from my constitutional and sworn obligations to administer the trial with fairness, in accordance with the Constitution and the laws.”

    The U.S. Constitution states that the Supreme Court’s chief justice shall preside when the president of the United States is tried in an impeachment trial. But once Trump left office last week, that threw Chief Justice John Roberts’s role into question; Roberts had presided over the first impeachment trial.

    Chief Justice John Roberts announces the results of the vote on the second article of impeachment during impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump in Washington on Feb. 5, 2020. (Senate Television via Getty Images)

    Reports suggested that Roberts didn’t want to preside over a trial of the former president. Supreme Court spokespersons didn’t immediately respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment, nor did spokespersons for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

    Dozens of Republicans have voiced opposition to holding an impeachment trial for a former president; some have said that Roberts’s apparent reluctance to act as presiding judge is significant.

    “If Justice Roberts won’t preside over this sham ‘impeachment,’ then why would it ever be considered legitimate?” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said in a tweet last week.

    The House alleges in its single article of impeachment that Trump incited the Jan. 6 breach of the U.S. Capitol. The Senate expects to start the trial during the week of Feb. 8.

    Follow Zachary on Twitter: @zackstieber

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/25/2021 – 18:30

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Today’s News 25th January 2021

  • Trump's Potential Legacy: 50 Million+ Enemies Of The State
    Trump’s Potential Legacy: 50 Million+ Enemies Of The State

    Authored by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute,

    Well, they finally got Donald Trump. But he sure scared the bejesus out of them.

    It took a massive five-year campaign of hysteria, of fear and hate, orchestrated by all wings of the Ruling Elite, from the respectable right to the activist left. The irony, of course, is that the last actions of Trump’s presidency highlighted how little of a threat he, as an individual, truly was to the deep corruption in America’s government. Lil Wayne may be free, but figures like Julian Assange, Edward Snowden, and Ross Ulbricht are not. The Fed’s big fat bubble has only gotten larger as Wall Street has thrived, while American workers continue to be “discriminated against.”

    If historians look back at simply the Trump administration’s policy legacy, the controversial nature of his tenure may confuse. A record of tax cuts, deregulation, runaway spending, an Israeli-Saudi-focused Middle East policy, criminal justice reform, and stacking the federal court with conservative judges on paper seems firmly aligned with the Republican Party of the modern era. Compromises on gun issues, the inability to replace Obamacare—or even reject its core tenets. His calls for larger stimulus relief would perhaps lead some to believe that he was relatively moderate in the current environment.

    Looking back, Trump’s most radical act of governance may be his simple embrace of federalism in the face of the coronavirus. Whether this stemmed from a genuine belief in the limits of practical federal power or a desire to have the flexibility to blame governors if a state’s response became unpopular, the administration’s willingness to allow states to take the leading role in devising a policy response allowed for one of the greatest illustrations of the importance of political centralization in recent American history. Trump allowed Florida to be Florida and New York to be New York. The ability to compare state performance has been essential at a time when “medical experts” were being weaponized in support of covid tyranny.

    All of this, however, would miss the true significance of the last four years. Trump’s legacy will be that of a political leader who, at a time when American politics was still adjusting to social media and user-created content, leaned into the polarization of American politics rather than pay lip service to “national unity.” A critic would claim this comes from Trump’s unquenchable need to have his ego stoked. A supporter would see a man who understood the need to realign American politics—but the underlying motivations are irrelevant.

    Trump’s impact on American politics may result in an even greater impact on the US government than his collaboration with Mitch McConnell on the judiciary.

    A variety of polling indicates that as Donald Trump boarded Marine One to retreat to Mar-a-Lago, he does so with most of his voters believing he is the rightful president of the United States. One poll showed almost 80 percent of Republicans “do not trust the results of the 2020 presidential election.” If we estimate that 75 percent of all of Trump’s 2020 voters hold this view, that leaves us with over 50 million Americans who believe they now live under an illegitimate federal government.

    This reality terrifies Washington’s political class more than anything Donald Trump could have done while occupying the White House.

    As Murray Rothbard illustrated in Anatomy of the State“What the State fears above all, of course, is any fundamental threat to its own power and its own existence.” A vital part of the state’s existence is its ability to justify its action with a mantle of “legitimacy”—which in an age of democracy comes from the notion of the “consent of the governed.”

    The result of 50+ million Americans viewing the next president as a fraud imposed on the people is an inauguration taking place in a Washington, DC, that resembles a warzone, surrounded by soldiers whom the regime does not trust with their own ammo.

    The downside of America’s regime acting from a place of fear is that it is likely to ruthlessly lash out like most violent predators tend to do. Since the actions at the Capitol on January 6, the corporate press has elevated a collection of “terrorism experts” who have explicitly called for the tools formed in the war on terror to be turned inward to deal with the growing Trump “insurrectionist threat.”

    As Glenn Greenwald notes, “No speculation is needed. Those who wield power are demanding it.”

    The upside is that the tremendous growth of federal powers has always been dependent upon the public’s understanding that such power was being wielded in their own defense. Therefore, democracy has, rather than being a public check against tyranny, more often been a way of peacefully empowering officials to get away with abuses that autocrats could only manage with explicit violence.

    To quote Rothbard:

    As Bertrand de Jouvenel has sagely pointed out, through the centuries men have formed concepts designed to check and limit the exercise of State rule; and, one after another, the State, using its intellectual allies, has been able to transform these concepts into intellectual rubber stamps of legitimacy and virtue to attach to its decrees and actions. Originally, in Western Europe, the concept of divine sovereignty held that the kings may rule only according to divine law; the kings turned the concept into a rubber stamp of divine approval for any of the kings’ actions. The concept of parliamentary democracy began as a popular check upon absolute monarchical rule; it ended with parliament being the essential part of the State and its every act totally sovereign.

    As such, even if aggressive actions by the Biden administration to address the specter of a Trump-inspired insurrection have the explicit support of nominally Republican leaders such as Mitch McConnell or Kevin McCarthy, how would such action be seen by MAGA America? If forced to choose, would someone like Governor Ron DeSantis align himself with a “bipartisan” effort from Washington elites or choose to be a leader of Biden-era resistance? Even if the resistance to a Biden administration is not ideologically libertarian or fundamentally “antistate,” an explicit rejection of federal domination would be a vital first step toward the sort of political decentralization and self-governance that any peaceful political order ultimately requires.

    Of course, all of this assumes that Trump’s base remains loyal—or at least remains hostile to the new regime. If Biden governs the same way he campaigned, by largely staying out of sight and avoiding making any bold statements and commitments one way or another, perhaps the public can be once again pacified and partisan divisions reduced to largely superficial differences, as has been the case for much of the current era.

    If, however, the Biden administration governs more like the corporate press and blue Twitter wants him towaging war on gender rolesprioritizing transgender issuespushing for job-killing economic policy during a pandemicacting unilaterally on immigrationpenalizing gun owners“reeducating” Trump supporterstreating MAGA like Al Qaeda, etc. – then the divides between Trump’s America and Biden’s America could become only further entrenched. And that is not even factoring in what happens if America experiences the hardship of an economic crisis.

    Trump’s legacy will not be shaped by his actions—or even by how his enemies portray him. Ultimately, it comes down to his base and the movement he inspired. As Lew Rockwell noted in a recent interview with Buck Johnson, “The Jeffersonians were much better than Jefferson. The Taftians were much better than Robert Taft. The Trumpians tend to be much better than Trump.”

    Should skepticism of the 2020 election, fueled by a new administration’s actions, finally convince 50+ million Trump supporters that the barbarians in the Beltway do not represent them and to react accordingly, then Trump’s presidency will be—despite his own actions—the disruption that America’s elites truly feared.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 23:30

  • Australia Hits Back At Google, Facebook: It's "Inevitable" You'll Soon Pay For Hosting Australian News
    Australia Hits Back At Google, Facebook: It’s “Inevitable” You’ll Soon Pay For Hosting Australian News

    Neither side is backing down after weeks of standoff between the Australian government and Google over proposed legislation aimed at better compensating and rewarding local news publishers, while bringing greater transparency to the way algorithms employed by Google, Facebook, and YouTube work.

    Canberra is now finalizing the bill which will require Google to obtained licenses for all content published by Australian news companies. Google’s parent company Alphabet Inc. oversees an estimated at least 94% of all search traffic in Australia, similar to many other countries globally, at a time it’s coming under increased accusations of using its monopoly power to bully content providers and smaller competitors. 

    Australia’s Federal Treasurer and deputy leader of the Liberal Party Josh Frydenberg said on Sunday that it’s “inevitable” that the Silicon Valley tech giants will be paying to use and present Australian content on their platforms and in search engines

    “My view is that it is inevitable that the digital giants will be paying for original content,” Frydenberg said just two days after Google threatened to pull its search engine from Australia altogether. This as Canberra is now reportedly finalizing the controversial legislation

    “It seems that digital giants did themselves a big disservice last week when they very openly and publicly threatened the Australian public with pulling out of Australia effectively with search if legislation proceeds as it currently stands,” Frydenberg added. 

    He further posed the question of humbling Google and Facebook’s unrivaled and “extraordinary power”:

    “My view is that it is inevitable that the digital giants will be paying for original content and the choice for Australia, is: Are we world leaders… and first off the rank when it comes to putting in place such a code? Or we can follow others further down the track when they do it.

    Google precisely wants to avoid the precedent of regulators backed by an influential government winning this fight. No doubt many more governments, especially in Europe, would follow.

    On Friday at a Senate hearing on the matter Google Australia Managing Director Mel Silva told lawmakers“If this version of the Code were to become law, it would give us no real choice but to stop making Google Search available in Australia.”

    Facebook is involved too:

    On Friday, the pair escalated the dispute by threatening to remove the Google search engine from Australia and Facebook to remove news from the Facebook feeds of all Australian users.

    The threats follow the revelation that Google has been experimenting with hiding some Australian news sites from search results, in a move media outlets said was a show of “extraordinary power”.

    Days ago Bloomberg cited tech analyst Johan Lidberg, an associate professor at Melbourne’s Monash University, who pointed out, “It’s about control and power.”

    He added that Google is seeking to make an example in Australia: “They’re signaling to other regulators they’ll have a fight on their hands if they do this.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 23:00

  • If "Facebook Is Private", Why Are They Feeding Users' Private Messages Directly To The FBI?
    If “Facebook Is Private”, Why Are They Feeding Users’ Private Messages Directly To The FBI?

    Authored by Matt Agorist via TheFreeThoughtProject.com,

    Despite decrying censorship when it was happening to them last year, when Donald Trump was banned from Twitter and Facebook earlier this month, the left praised the move by big tech. “Facebook is a private company and can do what they want,” the pro-censorship hypocritical crowd chanted ad nauseum through the digital ether after bad orange man was silenced. But as we have said time and again, Facebook being private is simply not true.

    Now, however, Facebook has made an unscrupulous Faustian bargain with the federal government which should eliminate all doubt once and for all. They are now willfully handing over private messages of Trump supporters who talked about the events at the capitol on January 6.

    Google, Apple, and Amazon all moved to wipe the pro-Trump social media network Parler from the internet earlier this month because of what users on the platform discussed. It was alleged that the handful of dolts who stormed the capitol on January 6 had solely used Parler to plan their laughable, unarmed, silly, unsuccessful, and pitiful attempt to keep Trump in the White House.

    Despite the ragtag group of Trumpians posing for selfies, photo-ops, and hanging from banisters, the only thing they accomplished was having D.C. turned into a scene akin to North Korea for Biden’s inauguration. Most honest experts in the media have acknowledged that though a few members of the mob thought they were part of some historic coup to keep their leader in power, the idea that they had any real chance at an insurrection was misleading at best and sheer propaganda used to further the domestic police and surveillance state at worst.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Deferring all responsibility for the planning of the raid on the capitol, Facebook chief operating officer Sheryl Sandberg had stated shortly after the incident that the protests were largely organized off Facebook. However, she was not telling the truth, and likely knew that large portions of the pro-Trump protests were talked about and organized on Facebook. But was Facebook wiped off the internet like Parler? No, no it was not. Here’s why.

    This week, Facebook began furnishing the Federal Bureau of Investigation with data on Trump supporters who discussed the events at the capitol on their platform – up to and including their private messages. Through this action the social media giant is acting as a de facto intelligence collecting arm of the US government.

    In contrast, when Syed Farook, otherwise known as the San Bernardino mass shooter, wouldn’t unlock his iPhone for the feds, Apple refused to create a backdoor for them to access it acting as an actual private company supporting the privacy rights of its customers. But Facebook is more than willing to open up its data mining services for their friends in the federal government — because, as we have stated numerous times, Facebook is not private.

    As TFTP reported in 2018, Facebook announced that it partnered with the arm of the government-funded Atlantic Council, known as the Digital Forensic Research Lab that was brought on to help the social media behemoth with “real-time insights and updates on emerging threats and disinformation campaigns from around the world.”

    The Atlantic Council is the group that NATO uses to whitewash wars and foster hatred toward Russia, which in turn allows them to continue to justify themselves. It’s funded by arms manufacturers like Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing. It is also funded by billionaire oligarchs like the Ukraine’s Victor Pinchuk and Saudi billionaire Bahaa Hariri.

    The list goes on. The highly unethical HSBC group — who has been caught numerous times laundering money for cartels and terrorists — is listed as one of their top donors. They are also funded by the pharmaceutical industry, Google, Goldman Sachs and others. However, the funding that comes from the United States, the US Army, and the Airforce directly negates the “private” aspect of the partnership.

    The “think tank” Facebook partnered with to make decisions on who they censor is directly funded by multiple state actors — including the United States — which voids any and all claims that Facebook is a wholly “private actor.”

    The Atlantic Council wields massive influence over mainstream media too, which is why when this partnership was announced, no one in the mainstream press pointed it out as the Orwellian idea that it is. Instead, headlines such as “US think tank’s tiny lab helps Facebook battle fake social media(Reuters)” and “Facebook partners with Atlantic Council to improve election security (The Hill)” were put out to spin the fact that a NATO propaganda arm is now censoring the information Americans see on Facebook.

    But this partnership with the state-funded “think tank” is not the only reason Facebook is not private.

    From government funded censorship arms to the revolving door of high level bureaucrats who fill the ranks of the oligopolies, the “private company” Facebook concept comes crashing down when taking a closer look. Private-sector firms do not need to be explicitly nationalized to further the establishment’s interests; it’s enough to install their alumni in top regulatory positions. Through these methods, Facebook can put on the façade of privatization while actually acting as deputies for the state but alleviating any constitutional checks in the process.

    All the while, whenever the censorship acts in their benefit, half of the masses cheer it on and defend it, keeping resistance at a minimum.

    What’s more, as the government hangs the threat of antitrust litigation over their heads, it can force these companies to act in their benefit even without explicit partnerships like that of the Atlantic Council. In fact, prior to the state getting involved in the talks of regulation into big tech, information flowed relatively freely with Facebook only removing racist and violent content. Now, however, as they bend to the will of their partners in the federal government, people like myself find ourselves on 30 day bans for saying “censorship leads to tyranny.”

    This is why the answer to the government big tech censorship leviathan lies not in regulation but in boycott. The time is now to get off these platforms who spy on you, ban you, sell you to the highest bidder, and who are tearing society apart. Censorship free platforms exist and are far more user friendly and treat you as the actual customer instead of the sheep they are leading to slaughter. You can check them out here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 22:30

  • One City Has An Office Market That Is Even More Dire Than New York's
    One City Has An Office Market That Is Even More Dire Than New York’s

    According to Bloomberg, real-estate data analytics firm Green Street released a new report outlining how the office space market in San Francisco will be the worst-preforming market in the US for 2021. Even though office vacancies in Manhattan are at record highs, it appears San Francisco tops New York City as companies reevaluating their space thanks to the pandemic. 

    Green Street estimates that rent and occupancy may plunge 22% in San Francisco this year, the largest expected decline of any other city in the country. New York was number two with -17%, Los Angeles in third at -9%. 

    Source: Bloomberg

    All of the cities shown above experienced similar pandemic-related stress of people escaping to suburbs and rural communities because of the virus and social unrest, along with the integration of remote-working, which allowed many people in white-collar jobs to work anywhere they pleased. 

    “San Francisco and New York will likely see a permanent resetting of rents as people and businesses look more toward the middle of the country for expansion,” said Danny Ismail, an analyst at Green Street. 

    “It’s unlikely that rents and occupancy will return to a level pre-Covid over the next few years,” Ismail warned.

    Green Street points out remote-working has forced many companies in major tech and finance hubs to reevaluate how much office space is needed. 

    Companies that are exiting these hubs are moving to cheaper metro areas, where the cost of living and tax code are more friendly. Some of those cities benefiting from the migration of companies and people are Nashville, Tennessee; Charlotte, North Carolina; Austin, Texas; and Atlanta. 

    Green Street makes a bold prediction that demand for office space will decline by 15% through the mid-point of the decade as businesses will be more inclined to adopt work-at-home lifestyles for their employees to trim costs and boost productivity.

    In a separate report, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said last month to clients that work-from-home will be widely adopted by firms and boost productivity.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 22:00

  • Seattle Interim Police Chief Announces Tougher Policy On Protest Vandalism
    Seattle Interim Police Chief Announces Tougher Policy On Protest Vandalism

    Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times,

    Seattle Police will get tougher on people who vandalize and destroy property during protests, the department interim police chief announced on Saturday ahead of a scheduled demonstration.

    Seattle Interim Police Chief Adrian Diaz’s announcement comes after a protest during which buildings were damaged and vandalized in downtown Seattle, including the city’s federal courthouse, on the day of President Joe Biden’s inauguration.

    On Jan. 20, people dressed in black were seen marching into the iconic Pike Place Market, with video from the aftermath showing broken windows at a Starbucks. A group of black-clad activists marched along the street carrying a tattered American flag upside down with the anarchy sign spray-painted on it and kicking over garbage containers.

    Seattle Police posted photos of the aftermath of the riots that shows multiple vandalized shops and buildings. The department said at the time that police had arrested one person for property damage, a woman for assault, and a man for burglary and property damage.

    Multiple windows were shattered at the William Kenzo Nakamura Courthouse in Seattle, Wash., on Jan. 20, 2021. (Seattle Police Department)

    The activists are alleged to be members of anarcho-communist group Antifa and other far-left groups. These extremists have taken advantage of a number of peaceful protests calling for police reform by creating a scene of civil unrest and engaging in violence, lighting fires, looting, and damaging property over the summer. Many law enforcement officers were injured during operations to quell the violence and protect public safety.

    Diaz told reporters during a conference that he was not sure what cause the rioters were fighting for, adding that he did not believe violent protesters and vandals are promoting a cause.

    “The events of breaking windows at a variety of different locations with no meaning,” Diaz told reporters.

    “There was no discussion about what they were fighting for, what type of social justice message. That cannot happen. That level of direct action cannot occur. And we are going to immediately address those issues.”

    The Seattle Police Department press contact did not immediately respond to The Epoch Times’ request for more details on the new policy and enforcement.

    The violence and property destruction in Seattle came alongside similar protests and riots in Portland, Oregon.

    In Portland, black-clad activists with their faces covered broke windows and the glass door at the Democratic Party of Oregon’s business office, spray-painting an anarchist symbol over the party sign, video posted on social media shows. Some of them tipped over garbage containers and lit the contents on fire, according to reports.

    “We don’t want Biden. We want revenge for police murders, imperialist wars, and fascist massacres,” read a banner they marched under, while others carried a banner reading “We are not governable,” which was dotted with anarchy symbols.

    Eight people were arrested in Portland on charges that include rioting and reckless burning.

    Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has urged President Joe Biden to condemn the recent actions of the rioters. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Saturday that she hasn’t spoken to Biden about the recent unrest.

    Independent reporter Andy Ngo, who has been closely monitoring and reporting on Antifa in Portland, said some of the rioters who were arrested at the most recent Portland riots were arrested at previous Black Lives Matter protests in 2020 and released.

    In a recent interview with The Epoch Times’ “American Thought Leaders,” Ngo raised concerns over Twitter’s lack of enforcement of their policies when it failed to stop Antifa planning and promoting riots on its platform prior to the riots.

    “In Seattle and Portland, there were simultaneous riots that were pre-planned and organized, and also advertised weeks ahead of time on Twitter,” Ngo said.

    “Twitter did nothing to take down some of these accounts that were promoting these riots.”

    Some of these accounts were ultimately suspended following the inauguration day riots, Ngo said on Friday.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 21:30

  • Foreign States Are "Clearly Behind" Pro-Navalny Rallies, Say Russian Lawmakers
    Foreign States Are “Clearly Behind” Pro-Navalny Rallies, Say Russian Lawmakers

    A top Russian lawmaker has condemned Saturday’s sizeable pro-Navalny protests which involved clashes with police across multiple cities including Moscow and St. Petersburg as “foreign-backed”.

    Andrey Klimov, the official who chairs the Senate’s “Federation Council for the Protection of State Sovereignty and Prevention of Interference in Russia’s Internal Affairs,” told Rossiya-1 TV channel on Sunday:

    “The commission [of the Federation Council] has reason to believe that the actions of foreign states are clearly behind all these events and all this is happening with the foreign specialists’ assistance,” according to TASS.

    Via AP

    He alleged further the ‘unauthorized’ demonstrations at the urging of jailed Kremlin opposition leader Alexei Navalny were organized primarily on “foreign digital platforms and messengers.”

    “This is an illegal act itself,” Klimov added. A separate statement from another top official said the commission is “ready to promptly examine the files about the possible involvement of foreign forces in disseminating calls to participate in unauthorized events in a number of social networks next weekend.”

    The means that further Navalny-related demonstrations, which there are sure to be more of according to his supporters both in Russia and the West, will be deemed “illegal” from the start, and further harsh crackdowns will ensue.

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    Over the weekend Russia’s Foreign Ministry angrily denounced the fact that in the run-up to the Saturday protests the US Embassy in Moscow publicly posted times and meeting places for planned demonstrations at up to a dozen cities in Russia. 

    “All that coincides with Washington’s provocative doctrinal guidelines to encourage ‘protests in the countries with unwanted governments’,” the Foreign Ministry said on Saturday.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Any attempts of this ‘coverage’ of unauthorized rallies will be regarded as gross interference in our country’s domestic affairs and will lead to a corresponding response,” the statement added.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 21:00

  • "Pravda-Level Propaganda" – WaPo Quietly Tries To Memory-Hole Kamala Harris' "Joke" About Starving Inmates
    “Pravda-Level Propaganda” – WaPo Quietly Tries To Memory-Hole Kamala Harris’ “Joke” About Starving Inmates

    UPDATE 2: None other than Andrew Sullivan has opined on The Washington Post’s bias being exposed, summing things up in his usual succinct but precise manner: “Amazing how rigged the WaPo now is. This is Pravda level propaganda”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    *  *  *

    UPDATE 1: The Washington Post has updated its website and URLs to restore the original version of the Kamala Harris profile detailed in Reason’s post, below.

    “We should have kept both versions of the story on the Post’s site (the original and updated one), rather than redirecting to the updated version,” Kris Coratti, the Post’s vice president for communications, told Reason in a statement on Friday.

    “We have now done that, and you will see the link to the original at the top of the updated version.”

    *  *  *

    Authored by Eric Boehm via Reason.com,

    When The Washington Post published a 2019 campaign trail feature about then-presidential hopeful Kamala Harris’ close relationship with her sister, it opened with a memorable anecdote in which Harris bizarrely compared the rigors of the campaign trail to…life behind bars.

    And then proceeded to laugh – at the idea of an inmate begging for a sip of water. It was an extremely cringeworthy moment, even by the high standards set by Harris’ failed presidential campaign.

    But now that Harris is vice president, that awful moment has seemingly vanished from the Post’s website after the paper “updated” the piece earlier this month.

    Here’s how the first seven paragraphs of that article, published by the Post on July 23, 2019, and bylined by features reporter Ben Terris, originally appeared:

    It was the Fourth of July, Independence Day, and Kamala Harris was explaining to her sister, Maya, that campaigns are like prisons.

    She’d been recounting how in the days before the Democratic debate in Miami life had actually slowed down to a manageable pace. Kamala, Maya and the rest of the team had spent three days prepping for that contest in a beach-facing hotel suite, where they closed the curtains to blot out the fun. But for all the hours of studying policy and practicing the zingers that would supercharge her candidacy, the trip allowed for a break in an otherwise all-encompassing schedule.

    “I actually got sleep,” Kamala said, sitting in a Hilton conference room, beside her sister, and smiling as she recalled walks on the beach with her husband and that one morning SoulCycle class she was able to take.

    “That kind of stuff,” Kamala said between sips of iced tea, “which was about bringing a little normal to the days, that was a treat for me.”

    “I mean, in some ways it was a treat,” Maya said. “But not really.”

    “It’s a treat that a prisoner gets when they ask for, ‘A morsel of food please,’ ” Kamala said shoving her hands forward as if clutching a metal plate, her voice now trembling like an old British man locked in a Dickensian jail cell. “‘And water! I just want wahtahhh….’Your standards really go out the f—ing window.”

    Kamala burst into laughter.

    It should go without saying that choosing to run for the most powerful political office in the world is absolutely nothing like being behind bars—and getting to squeeze in a morning SoulCycle session before sitting down for an interview with a national newspaper is not remotely the same as dying of thirst. None of this is funny.

    The scene was a brilliant bit of reporting and writing because it did what few political features can accomplish: showing, rather than telling, something about the candidate at the center. Harris made her name as a prosecutor, and her track record includes defending dirty cops and laughing off criticism of her history of throwing poor parents in jail when their kids missed school. The Post profile provided a mask-slipping moment that seemed to perfectly capture a warped sense of justice and lack of basic human dignity—all in just a few hundred words.

    We’ve republished that passage here because you won’t find it on the Post’s website any longer.

    The rest of the profile is still there, but with a new opening anecdote (presumably authored by political reporter Chelsea Janes, whose byline has been added to the piece and who has authored several fawning pieces about Harris this week) that compares now-Vice President Harris’ relationship with her sister to that of former President John F. Kennedy and his brother Robert. After the opening section, the rest of the piece appears nearly identical to the version originally published in July 2019.

    But what happened to the old version? The headline for that 18-month-old article still appears on Terris’ page on the Post website with the original date it was published, but clicking the link redirects users to the new version published this month—the version that omits Harris’ awful commentary about campaigns and prisons.

    Other links to the original piece also now redirect to the sanitized version. Reason‘s Elizabeth Nolan Brown, for example, highlighted the Terris profile of Harris on the July 24, 2019, version of the Reason Roundup. Click through that link now, however, and you won’t find Harris’ inartful “joke” about inmates dying of thirst.

    The original quote might have demonstrated something about Harris—indeed, it suggests why her presidential primary campaign flopped so hard—but its disappearance suggests something about the Post, and about the way traditional political media are preparing to cover Harris now that she’s one heartbeat away from the presidency.

    Reason asked the Post why the Harris feature was updated, and if the paper could point to other examples of “updating” political features to remove details that show officials in an unflattering light.

    As part of an online series rolled out before President Joe Biden’s and Harris’ inauguration, “we repurposed and updated some of our strong biographical pieces about both political figures,” Molly Gannon Conway, the Post‘s communications manager, told Reason via email on Thursday. “The profile of Maya Harris was updated with new reporting, as noted online, using the existing URL. The original story remains available in print.”

    Conway did not include any other examples of content that had been similarly updated. She also did not respond to a question about whether Harris’ team had requested the change. The vice president’s office did not return a request for comment.

    The Post, of course, can do whatever it pleases with its own content. It can update or rearrange or delete any detail in any story at any time.

    Still, the decision to remove that specific passage—and to replace it with a puffy opening about how Maya has “been a constant companion along Kamala Harris’s journey into history”—is questionable at best. Yes, Harris’ inauguration as America’s first female vice president is historic, but that’s no reason to ignore or erase her troubling history as a cop and politician. It also raises questions about the Post’s approach to covering Harris going forward. At a time when legacy publications are increasingly seen as playing for one political “team” or the other, this type of editorial decision will not do anything to fix that perception—is there any doubt that the Post would not have treated an inartful comment from Mike Pence in the same way?

    Intentional or not, the memory-holing of the older version of the piece sends a message that the Post is willing to pave over its own good journalism to protect a powerful politician from her own words.

    Luckily, nothing is ever really gone on the internet.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 20:30

  • Ethereum Surges To New Record High As DeFi Boom Re-Accelerates
    Ethereum Surges To New Record High As DeFi Boom Re-Accelerates

    Coins that power decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols are soaring recently as bitcoin treads water.

    While bitcoin grabbed all the headlines early on in the year, it is the rest of the crypto space that is stealing its thunder most recently as Ethereum, the backbone of the smart contracts that define much of the DeFi space, has drastically outperformed…

    Source: Bloomberg

    That is the highest for ETH relative to BTC since

    Source: Bloomberg

    In fact, as Bitcoin drifts, Ethereum is up over 17% since Friday…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Back above the recent highs….

    Source: Bloomberg

    Making new all-time highs…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The incredible surge in the price of AAVE (driven as surge in the growth of flash loans) most recently is a good example of what is driving this push into DeFi tokens. As CoinTelegraph notes,

    Flash loans allow cryptocurrency holders to collatoralize their portfolio to fund other purchases or new crypto purchases.

    The loans also help investors utilize the value in their tokens without the need to sell see them and create a taxable event.

    Since launching flash loans less than 12 months ago, more than $1.7 billion have been issued and it’s expected that this figure will increse as the crypto bull market progresses.

    Simply put, the crypto market is becoming its own bank.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 20:09

  • Mexican President AMLO Tests Positive For Covid
    Mexican President AMLO Tests Positive For Covid

    Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has tested positive for COVID-19, he said on Sunday, adding that his symptoms were light and that he was receiving medical treatment.

    “I regret to inform you that I am infected with COVID-19. The symptoms are mild but I am already under medical treatment. As always, I am optimistic. We will all move forward. Dr. Olga Sánchez Cordero will represent me in the morning to report how we do it every day” AMLO tweeted, adding that he will be on top of public affairs from the National Palace “for example, tomorrow I will take a call with President Vladimir Putin because, regardless of friendly relations, there is a possibility that they will send us the Sputnik V vaccine.”

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    According to a CNN Mexico report, “on Friday he was in a room with FM Marcelo Ebrard too, as they called US President Joe Biden.”

    Mexico has been hit very hard by covid, with more than 1.7 million cases and 150k deaths.

    Worse, nearly a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, Mexico has entered its darkest phase yet with hospitals in many states near capacity, and ventilators and oxygen tanks in scarce supply. At a medical center erected on a Mexico City military base, the morgue has run out of space.

    “In the end you’re just stacking people in piles,” Dr. Giorgio Alberto Franyuti Kelly, chief of biosecurity for the military, who treats patients at the makeshift hospital told the LA Times.

    While large-scale vaccination is widely seen as the clearest way out, this last week the government announced that its inoculation program — one of the most ambitious in Latin America — had essentially come to a standstill because the country of 128 million people has received just 766,350 doses of vaccine, all produced by Pfizer-BioNTech. That figure was supposed to hit 1.5 million by the end of the month, but Pfizer now says it can’t meet that goal because it is remodeling one of its factories in Europe to eventually boost production.

    Mexican officials described the delay as a minor setback and said shipments from Pfizer are expected to resume Feb. 15.

    “It is simply going to be temporarily postponed,” said Mexico’s undersecretary of health, Dr. Hugo López-Gatell, who is leading the nation’s pandemic response.

    Unfortunately for AMLO, the vaccine was too late to protect him from the dreaded infection.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 20:05

  • Goldman Lists The Three Things That Could Go "Really Wrong" In 2021
    Goldman Lists The Three Things That Could Go “Really Wrong” In 2021

    On Saturday, we showed why according to observations from Credit Suisse and BofA, the “US Economy Is Set To Overheat As Households Are Flooded With $2 Trillion In Excess Savings.” Then, in a note this morning from Morgan Stanley asking “What To Do About All This Optimism” the bank said that “in November, December and now January, no question or concern has come up more often than ‘everyone is optimistic‘.” Finally, the latest Fund Managers Survey showed that investors’ global growth expectations rose by 1% to a net 90%, the 3rd highest growth expectations ever (#1 in March 2002, #2 in November 2020).

    This unbridled optimism prompted Goldman to boost its full year US GDP forecast to 6.6%, nearly 50% higher than the 4.1% consensus.

    The common theme: record euphoria has gripped not just markets – Wall Street is just as euphoric about the broader economy where “everyone is optimistic” and for a very simple reason: with the Biden admin set to (realistically) unleash at least $1 trillion in new stimulus (down from Biden’s $1.9 trillion target), and also planning to unveil a new multi-trillion infrastructure program later in the year, negative numbers and bearish narratives simply do not matter ahead of this stimulus tsunami.

    Whether or not such euphoria is justified – after all, thanks to the Blue Wave, risks from insufficient fiscal aid or substantial scarring effects now look much less likely than a few months ago – but as Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote today in a lengthy note titled “What Could Go Wrong” with the 2021 rebound, other downside risks remain “including uncertainty about how consumers will respond to lingering risks and how new virus mutations will affect virus spread and vaccine efficacy.” Some more details on these three risks:

    • The first downside risk according to Goldman is that consumers remain more cautious than expected, even as mass vaccination and warmer weather greatly reduce virus spread and the risk of infection. While this could restrain the consumption boom, consumer surveys and the resiliency of the consumer thus far suggest such downside is likely limited. 
    • The second, “more concerning downside risk” is that virus mutations significantly increase the bar for herd immunity, either because they are far more infectious or because they decrease the efficacy of existing vaccines. This would likely delay the consumption boom by pushing back the date when the US reaches herd immunity and virus risks diminish substantially.
    • The third, most severe downside risk is the evolution of a vaccine-resistant virus strain that would require a new vaccine and another round of vaccination. Virus-sensitive spending would likely retrench while a new vaccine is developed,and although a new vaccine could be approved in less than five months, the consumption boom would likely be delayed until 2022

    Some more details on each of these points as excerpted from the Goldman report:

    Downside Risk #1: Greater Consumer Caution

    The first risk is that consumers remain more cautious than we expect, even as mass vaccination and warmer weather greatly reduce virus spread and the risk of infection.While our baseline already incorporates some amount of lingering risk aversion, it is possible that demand for virus-sensitive activities remains well below pre-virus trend levels, particularly for the higher-risk population. While this could restrain the consumption boom, consumer surveys and the resiliency of the consumer thus far suggest such downside is likely limited. Surveys indicate that mass vaccination will significantly increase consumers’ willingness to resume virus-sensitive activities, and the experience of other countries that have more effectively controlled the virus also shows that virus-sensitive services can quickly normalize once infections decline. Additionally, our recovery tracker shows that consumer spending has retrenched only slightly despite very bad virus spread over the winter months. To estimate the possible downside from greater consumer caution, we focus on consumer spending of older individuals who are at greater risk from the virus. Based on Consumer Expenditure Survey data, we estimate that spending by individuals above the age of 65 on virus-sensitive activities accounts for 3% of total consumer spending

    To assess a downside case with increased consumer caution, we first use surveys of social distancing by age group to project our baseline services spending forecast across age groups, and then assume that services spending recovers 50% more slowly than in our baseline forecast for the older population and 10% more slowly for everyone else. As shown in Exhibit 3, more caution would slow the pace of the consumption boom, but would still likely imply fairly robust growth throughout 2021 of +5.9% on a full year basis (vs. +6.6% in our baseline forecast) and +6.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis (vs. +7.5%).

    Downside Risk #2: A Highly Infectious Strain

    The second, more concerning downside risk is that recent or future virus mutations sharply increase the bar for herd immunity to levels that take substantially longer to achieve. This could be because the mutations are significantly more infectious, or because the current vaccines are less effective against the new strains.

    Exhibit 4 relates the basic reproduction number R0—defined as the number of new cases spread by each case in a population that hasn’t seen the disease before—and vaccine efficacy with the required immunity in the population to reach “herd immunity” under a stylized model. If R0 were 2.5, for example, and infections and vaccines provided an average protection of 80%, reaching herd immunity would require immunity of 86% of the population, acquired either through infection or through vaccination. While vaccine demand appears to have edged up over time (Exhibit 5) and is likely to rise as awareness of efficacy grows, achieving very elevated vaccine coverage might be challenging. This is especially true if lower efficacy or uncertainty about efficacy against new strains further discourages vaccination.

    Under the scenario where virus mutations significantly increase the bar for herd immunity, virus spread would remain considerably higher for longer and the consumption boom would likely be both delayed and softer. Exhibit 6 shows a stylized scenario where we assume that the boost from the recovery in services spending is pushed back by two months due to the delay in reaching herd immunity, and subsequent growth in services spending is 30% slower than in our baseline forecast. In this scenario we would expect moderately lower growth in 2021 of +5.1% on a full year basis (vs. +6.6% in our baseline forecast) and +5.4% on a Q4/Q4 basis (vs. +7.5%).

    Downside Risk #3: Vaccine-Resistant Variant

    The third, most severe downside risk is the evolution of a vaccine-resistant virus strain that would require a new vaccine and another round of vaccination. In this scenario, progress toward herd immunity from current vaccination efforts would be lost or severely set back.

    Fortunately, preliminary evidence suggests that current vaccines generate an antibody response to the UK strain and will remain effective (Table 1). Results for the South African strain are both more preliminary and more mixed, with two early studies suggesting some decline in vaccine efficacy. However, experts interpret these results cautiously, and Dr. Richard Lessels (lead author of one study) characterized the results as showing that it was “possible” that that vaccine efficacy may be “slightly diminished.” At this point, it seems unlikely that vaccines will need to be adjusted to remain effective against either new strain, although the South African virus strain has more downside potential.

    In addition to the risks from current strains, nearly all experts anticipate that vaccine-resistant strains could evolve, although generally do not believe such an evolution is imminent (Table 1). Instead, a vaccine-resistant virus would likely reflect the accumulation of mutations that lower the efficacy of vaccines over time. The risk that a vaccine-resistant virus strain emerges have risen recently, since higher case counts and more infectious strains increase opportunities for efficacy-lowering mutations to occur. Nevertheless, most viruses (with the seasonal flu as a notable exception) do not mutate in a manner that regularly renders vaccines ineffective, and so we do not incorporate such a mutation in our baseline forecast.

    They don’t… but they just might and soon, considering the highly “political” nature of the covid pandemic, which in addition to directly toppling the Trump presidency, has emerged as the most palatable way of mainstreaming MMT and helicopter money, and overhauling the entire fiscal and monetary structure virtually overnight. It’s why one doesn’t have to be a deranged conspiracy theorist to conclude that despite the sudden improvement in the US covid picture since Biden’s inauguration, which as we reported on Friday resulted in a record one-day drop in covid hospitalizations

    … if it means that trillions more will be pumped into the economy – again, for political purposes, that the third risk, one of a “vaccine resistant virus strain”, is quite likely to emerge some time around the summer, not only to extend the lockdowns into 2022 but to give Congress and the Fed political cover for more trillions in Universal Basic Income-funding stimmy checks (while politicians quietly embezzle trillions more).

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 20:00

  • "You're Forgetting Who You Are As A Journalist": Rand Paul Slams Stephanopoulos In Sunday Spat Over Election Integrity
    “You’re Forgetting Who You Are As A Journalist”: Rand Paul Slams Stephanopoulos In Sunday Spat Over Election Integrity

    Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) took to ABC on Sunday morning with George Stephanopoulos to discuss election integrity of the 2020 election, in a discussion which immediately devolved into an inquisition during which Paul was repeatedly pressed to disavow clams that the election was stolen.

    Paul not only pushed back – he put Stephanopoulos in his place, accusing the host of ‘inserting yourself in the middle’ and ‘forgetting who you are as a journalist.’

    Stephanopoulos began by asking Paul to admit the “election was not stolen” – to which Paul responded by saying “The debate over whether or not there was fraud should occur. We never had any presentation in court where we ever looked at the evidence…”

    Paul continued: “There were several states in which the law was changed by the Secretary of State and not the state legislature. To me those are clearly unconstitutional and I think there’s still a chance those do finally work their way up to the Supreme Court.”

    “No election is perfect,” Stephanopoulos shot back, telling Paul there were “86 challenges filed by President Trump, all were dismissed”. As Paul tries to argue that many cases were dismissed for lack of standing and not due to examination of evidence, Stephanopoulos responds: “Can’t you just say the words ‘this election wasn’t stolen’?

    ‘75% of Republicans want to look at election integrity,’ Paul responds. Stephanopoulos responds by saying that those 75% agree with him because they were “fed a big lie” from the President. 

    Paul pushed back, telling Stephanopoulos: “You immediately say everything’s a lie instead of saying there’s two sides to everything. Historically what would happen is if I said I thought there was fraud, you’d interview someone else who said there wasn’t. But now you insert yourself in the middle and say that the absolute fact is that everything I’m saying is a lie.”

    “You’re saying there’s no fraud and it’s all been investigated and that’s just not true,” Paul continues, with Stephanopoulos arguing at the same time. Paul then goes into specifics, detailing irregularities in states in like Wisconsin. “I plan on spending the next two years going around, state to state, fixing these problems,” Paul continues. “Let’s have an open debate. It’s a free country!”

    “There has been no thorough examination of all states to see what problems we had and see if we could fix them,” Paul says, responding to Stephanopoulos’ claims that Bill Barr pronounced there was “no widespread election fraud”. 

    “There’s two sides to every story,” Paul says. “Interview someone on the other side, but don’t insert yourself into the story to say we’re all liars.”

    “You’re forgetting who you are as a journalist if you think there’s only one side,” Paul says. “A journalist would hear both sides and there are two sides to this story.”

    You can watch the entire 6 minute exchange here:

    Election integrity aside, Paul has been a vocal critic of the Biden administration in recent days. On Saturday, we noted  Paul’s interview with Fox host Sean Hannity, where he pummeled the Biden administration’s decision to push for a $15 minimum wage increase that could put 4 million people out of work – leading the Kentucky Republican to exclaim:

    “‘Why does Joe Biden hate Black teenagers?’ … Why does Joe Biden want to destroy all of these jobs?”

    Paul comments come amid ramblings from various leftist economists who insist that there’s no impact on employment from such a drastic minimum wage hike…

    …common sense (and historical experience) for anyone who has ever run an actual business is that raising costs on the lowest-skilled workers in your organization will ripple all the way up, forcing either higher prices to the end-user (eradicating the ‘living wage’ improvement) and or forcing layoffs as management hold margins and reduce costs (the least-skilled first).

    Historically speaking, the black unemployment rate is twice that of whites, while minimum wage increases – as we’ve shown repeatedly over the last week – correlate with spikes in job losses just about every single time.

    That’s not an “alternative” fact, that’s the awkward reality of ‘unintended consequences’ from nanny-state intervention write large for the last 70 years.

    Paul also blasted Biden for canceling the Keystone XL oil pipeline:

    “It’s kind of a strange beginning to an administration,” Paul said.

    “You’re going to put your best foot forward and the first thing you say is, ‘This is how I’m going to kill jobs’ … ‘I’m going to kill thousands of jobs of the Keystone pipeline with ending it.'”

    You can watch that full interview here:

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 19:55

  • Tulsi Gabbard: Domestic-Terrorism Bill Is "A Targeting Of Almost Half Of The Country"
    Tulsi Gabbard: Domestic-Terrorism Bill Is “A Targeting Of Almost Half Of The Country”

    Authored by Brittany Bernstein via NationalReview.com,

    Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic representative from Hawaii, on Friday expressed concern that a proposed measure to combat domestic terrorism could be used to undermine civil liberties. 

    Gabbard’s comments came during an appearance on Fox News Primetime when host Brian Kilmeade asked her if she was “surprised they’re pushing forward with this extra surveillance on would-be domestic terror.”

    “It’s so dangerous as you guys have been talking about, this is an issue that all Democrats, Republicans, independents, Libertarians should be extremely concerned about, especially because we don’t have to guess about where this goes or how this ends,” Gabbard said.

    She continued:

    “When you have people like former CIA Director John Brennan openly talking about how he’s spoken with or heard from appointees and nominees in the Biden administration who are already starting to look across our country for these types of movements similar to the insurgencies they’ve seen overseas, that in his words, he says make up this unholy alliance of religious extremists, racists, bigots, he lists a few others and at the end, even libertarians.”

    She said her concern lies in how officials will define the characteristics they are searching for in potential threats.

    “What characteristics are we looking for as we are building this profile of a potential extremist, what are we talking about? Religious extremists, are we talking about Christians, evangelical Christians, what is a religious extremist? Is it somebody who is pro-life? Where do you take this?” Gabbard said.

    She said the proposed legislation could create “a very dangerous undermining of our civil liberties, our freedoms in our Constitution, and a targeting of almost half of the country.”

    “You start looking at obviously, have to be a white person, obviously likely male, libertarians, anyone who loves freedom, liberty, maybe has an American flag outside their house, or people who, you know, attended a Trump rally,” Gabbard said.

    The Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2021 was introduced in the House earlier this week in the aftermath of rioting at the U.S. Capitol earlier this month that left five dead.

    “Unlike after 9/11, the threat that reared its ugly head on January 6th is from domestic terror groups and extremists, often racially-motivated violent individuals,” Representative Brad Schneider (D., Ill.) said in a statement announcing the bipartisan legislation.

    “America must be vigilant to combat those radicalized to violence, and the Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act gives our government the tools to identify, monitor and thwart their illegal activities. Combatting the threat of domestic terrorism and white supremacy is not a Democratic or Republican issue, not left versus right or urban versus rural. Domestic Terrorism is an American issue, a serious threat the we can and must address together,” he said.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 19:35

  • "He Has Sold Us Out" – Mobs Of Farmers Swarm New Delhi Protesting Modi's New Ag Reforms
    “He Has Sold Us Out” – Mobs Of Farmers Swarm New Delhi Protesting Modi’s New Ag Reforms

    An angry mob of farmers, some on tractors and others marching in rank and file, are expected to enter India’s capital of New Delhi to protest unfair farming legislation passed several months ago. 

    New Delhi Police will allow more than 12,000 farmers on tractors to enter the capital city this week to demonstrate, a senior official told Reuters

    Farmers have been outraged with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s farming law passed late last year. Many mom and pop farmers allege the law favors big corporations. 

    In late September, crowds of farmers were spotted across multiple cities, protesting ahead of the signing of farm legislation by the Modi administration that would end the government’s programs to keep commodity prices at fixed levels, therefore allowing free markets to dictate prices.

    At the time, Modi said the new farming law would “completely transform the agriculture sector” and empower “tens of millions of farmers” while driving much-needed investments and modernization efforts in the industry. 

    For months, farmers have been organizing against Modi and the corporations that control him, according to OffGuardian

    OffGuardian, quoting one Indian farmer, said:

    “Corporates invested in Modi before the election and brought him to power. He has sold out and is an agent of Ambani and Adani. He is unable to repeal the bills because his owners will scold him. He is trapped. But we are not backing down either.”

    Farmers are afraid that corporations will crush crop prices and leave them with little profits. 

    Months later, and with some farmers camping on the capital’s outskirts in protest of the new law, the growing opposition parties and farmers’ unions will finally get their say this week. 

    Here are the farmers heading to New Delhi. 

    “About 25,000 #farmers from across Karnataka would lead a protest rally on Tuesday to Bengaluru from Nelamangla on the city’s outskirts in support of their counterparts’ tractor rally to New Delhi against the 3 farmers’ laws, said state’s farmers leader K. Chandrashekar on Sunday,” tweeted Indo-Asian News Service. 

    A mob of angry farmers marches towards New Delhi. 

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    To note, New Delhi is where all three branches of India’s government are located, with the Rashtrapati Bhavan, Parliament House, and the Supreme Court of India.

    Many farmers feel the Modi administration has sold them out to a handful of billionaires in India. With many livelihoods in jeopardy, the unrest among farmers is unlikely to be over. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 19:10

  • Goldman's Clients Are Freaking Out About A Stock Bubble: Here Is The Bank's Response
    Goldman’s Clients Are Freaking Out About A Stock Bubble: Here Is The Bank’s Response

    One doesn’t have to be a “legendary” investor to call out bubbles, especially once who correctly called the excesses of the dot com and housing eras, but it helps and it’s probably why Jeremy Grantham had such conviction last week when he said that not only is the market currently an “epic” bubble but that it will suffer a “spectacular” crash in “the next few months.” Needless to say, such an alarmist view is hardly in the best interests of banks who make commissions on two-way trades instead of outright sales (or liquidations), but in a notable departure from tradition, several banks have joined Grantham in calling for a sharp market correction either imminently (Bank of America) or in the second half of the year (Wells Fargo).

    To be sure, concerns about an asset bubble have grown so widespread, with the latest Deutsche Bank survey finding the the vast majority of respondents (89%) see some bubbles in financial markets currently…

    … that even Goldman’s clients – traditionally among the most cheerful and optimistic of all, pied pipered by the perpetually bullish view of Goldman strategists – are starting to freak out.

    As Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin writes in his latest Weekly Kickstart report, “among the questions we receive most frequently from clients is whether US stocks trade at unsustainably high levels (read: “Bubble”).”

    So how can Goldman answer without sounding completely idiotic and disingenuous on one hand, denying that valuations are massively stretch and euphoria is everywhere as the latest Citi panic/euphoria model shows

    … yet without sparking a liquidation-driven market crash by admitting that it is in fact, a “massive bubble”:

    Well here’s how Kostin delicately threads the needle: first, he admits that valuations have indeed rarely (read never) been higher, writing that “on an absolute basis there is no doubt that valuations are extremely elevated. The index trades at the upper end of the historical range when measured using a variety of metrics, including P/E, P/B, EV/sales, EV/EBITDA, and market cap/GDP. These measures point to equity valuation ranking in the 96th historical percentile (Exhibit 2).”

    “However”, he then quickly counters before readers call their favorite Goldman salesman and bark the “sell all” order, when “taking into account the yield on Treasuries, corporate credit, or cash, the aggregate stock market index trades at below-average historical valuation.”  Kostin then tries to ease lingering concerns that stocks are in a massive bubble (which they are), writing that “in fact, as economist Robert Shiller recently pointed out, his oft-cited CyclicallyAdjusted P/E Ratio (“CAPE”) shows that equity valuations are “not as absurd as some people think,” provided interest rates remain relatively low. Our economists forecast the 10-year Treasury yield will rise to just 1.5% at the end of 2021 and only exceed 2% in mid-2023.”

    Kostin here falls back to the only partially credible justification he can make for exorbitant valuations, namely that near-record low yields means that stocks are cheap compared to bonds, and thus deserving of high multiples.

    This, as we explained last December in “No, Low Rates Do Not Lead To Higher Earnings Multiples”, is total rubbish since over time low real rates have never led to – or justified – the record market multiples except for cases when the market was infact in a bubble,  and it’s not just us making this observation but last week, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid did too showing the following chart (which was adopted from Jerry Minack and which we first showed on Dec 5):

    But why does Kostin, knowing well that his argument has already been debunked, keep making this ridiculous justification for continued buying of risk? Simple, because as he says in the very next sentence, “we expect modestly higher rates will be offset by a declining equity risk premium, leaving the S&P 500 P/E effectively unchanged and allowing strong EPS growth to drive the market towards our year-end target of 4300.

    And there you have it: it’s kinda tough to agree there is a bubble when your own S&P price target in 11 months is almost 500 points higher at least when it comes to Goldman’s clients; the answer to what Goldman’s prop book is doing now will have to wait until the congressional hearings after the bubble bursts. As a reminder, back in the 2007 bubble, Goldman’s desk was actively betting on a housing crash by selling CDOs to the very same clients it told to buy CDOs (sometimes in collusion with other major clients such as Pauslon), knowing well that the crash was imminent. But we digress.

    Anyway, back to Kostin who naturally realizes that any “all clear” signal would be immediately laughed out by most sophisticated finance professionals (with 89% of them already believing there is a bubble as the DB survey showed, he is caught between a rock and a hard place), and so he is forced to strategically caveat his cheerful assessment, writing that “although the aggregate equity market appears reasonably valued, pockets of the market have recently appeared to demonstrate investor behavior consistent with bubble-like sentiment.”

    One such area is unbridled frowth is SPACs. As Kostin then notes, in 2020 (which he dubbed the “Year of the SPAC”), 229 US SPACs raised $76 billion, a figure 6 times greater than in 2019. During the first three weeks of 2021, another 56 SPACs have raised $16 billion, already half the total raised in all of Q4 2020.

    According to Goldman calculations (which we presented previously), “if the 5x ratio of equity capital to target M&A enterprise value persists, the $80 billion of uncommitted SPAC capital would drive $400 billion in M&A during the next two years.” However, as he also notes, that is conditional on each of those SPACs finding a suitable private company target and negotiating a merger.

    Yet even as Kostin warns that Spacs are clearly one aspect of a market bubble, he doesn’t see it as having dire consequences, to wit:

    Low interest rates, the flexible structure, and the two-year window to find a target before returning capital suggest the popularity of SPACs will continue in the near term. Importantly, we see little risk to public equity markets should investor enthusiasm for SPACs subside.

    It’s not just SPACs, however, that Goldman is telling its clients to be ware of – as the bank notes next, “the sharp recent outperformance of stocks with negative earnings is another potentially bubble-like phenomenon that many clients have highlighted. During the last 12 months, the shares of firms with negative LTM EBITDA have outpaced the average stock by 40 percentage points (82% vs. 42%), a 97th percentile ranking since 1985. By comparison, negative EBITDA stocks outperformed by a similar 30 pp following the Financial Crisis but by 140 pp in 1999-2000 during the Tech Bubble.” This unprecedented surge in the stock prices of non-profitable tech companies is shown below. If anyone looks at this chart and says no bubble, they should never be allowed to opine on anything finance-related ever again.

    Ok fine, at least Goldman admits that there are two clear bubble signs. Wait, wait… there’s a third: as Kostin continues, even “more than the outperformance of negative earners, the recent surge in trading volumes of negative earnings stocks registers as a historical extreme. These firms account for 16% of equity trading volumes, exceeding the 15% share in 2000.” Yet like above, Kostin is reduced to pleading with clients not to worry about this clear and grotesque bubble indicator either, because “although this surge appears unsustainable, it also appears to pose little risk to the broad market because these companies account for just 5% of total market cap.” And just in case you start worrying about the insanity that has gripped retail daytrading, Kostin has some encouragement there too:Similarly, the share of trading volumes in stocks with share prices below $1.00 has doubled in the last two months and ranks in the 99th historical percentile. But these firms only account for 1% of trading volume and less than half of 1% of market value.”

    Realizing that he has to expend on why he is dismissing all these clear bubble indicators so generously – or suffer total loss of credibility – Kostin then attempt to do just that, with the following two-paragraph “bubblesplainer”:

    Just like in past economic cycles, many stocks with negative earnings today were profitable companies that dipped into unprofitability during the recession.During economic recoveries investors often rotate their portfolios toward firms whose earnings and share prices suffered most during the downturns, particularly in a low interest rate environment that increases the present value of distant future cash flows. Trading activity in stocks with persistently negative earnings during the last three years – unprofitability that cannot be attributed to the pandemic recession –has also been extreme, but these firms amount to just 2% of equity market cap.

    Today’s market also lacks the extreme investor leverage that is typical of bubbles. Due in large part to fiscal stimulus, US household disposable income growth was strong in 2020, and the outlook remains positive with further stimulus likely on the way. Excess savings remain elevated and the aggregate US household debt service ratio is nearly the lowest in at least 40 years. As a result, the strong recent inflows to US equities have apparently been funded by cash rather than leverage. While US margin debt has certainly risen in recent months, it currently registers a smaller share of market cap than it has as recently as during 2017-2018. And money market fund assets remain elevated after large inflows in 2020.

    In short, yes – the chronic retail momentum-chasers are clearly scrambling to bid up bubble assets, but this in itself is not a risk as they haven’t taken out a third mortgage to do it. Well, let’s wait and see just how much leverage said Robinhooders and redditors have put on as they ravage shorts up and down the market. And that will become apparent only after the crash once the bubble pops, but there’s no need to worry about that happening according to Kostin, because this time is different.

    Yet one place where not even Kostin can’t talk down the sheer bubbly euphoria is in high-multiple stocks. As the Goldman strategist admits, “one part of the market that appears frothy and may pose a broader risk is extremely high-growth, high-multiple stocks. Like negative earners and penny stocks, trading volumes and share prices of stocks with EV/sales multiples over 20x have soared. However, these firms are much larger, collectively accounting for 23% of trading volumes during the past month (96th percentile since 1985) and 9% of market cap.”

    Of course, even here Kostin has to provide some optimism, and does so by writing that some of this appreciation is appropriate “given record low interest rates. Firms with EV/sales ratios greater than 20x accounted for 2% of trading volumes in 2019. That share rose to 10% in August 2020 as interest rates plunged.”  However, with their share of volumes having doubled again during the most recent market rally…

    … Kostin concedes that “history shows investors face long odds of outperforming when buying the most extremely-valued firms.” Why? Because since 1985, the median stock trading at an EV/sales multiple above 20x has generated a subsequent 12-month return of -1%, compared with +6% for the median US stock. The average stock trading above 20x has posted  a stronger return, but still fared worse than the broad market average (+6% vs. +16%).

    And just to placate all those Goldman clients who are calling bullshit on everything Kostin just said, he provides them with a handy screen of the 39 US stocks with market caps above $10 billion with both trailing and consensus 2022 EV/sales ratios greater than 20x.

    What Goldman is telling its clients here is “short these names if you are so worried about bubbles.” Of course, what will ironically happen in the real world is that as another round of hedge funds piles into these berserker bubble names, the retail and reddit daytrading army will rush into them, forcing another epic short squeeze, and sending this basket of 39 stocks soaring to new even more berserker highs.

    Why? Because of the very same entity we have been consistently bashing since our inception 12 years ago: the Federal Reserve of the United States, which first destroyed only capital markets, and is now set to finalize its real mandate – the destruction of not only the middle class but the United States itself, while unleashing what even Ray Dalio now admits will be a “terrible civil war.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 19:10

  • Morgan Stanley Asks What To Do About All This Optimism
    Morgan Stanley Asks What To Do About All This Optimism

    By Andrew Sheets, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley

    A new year. A new presidential term. Both events are traditionally passages from the old to the new, when we look back and look ahead. And both serve as useful and necessary reminders: While it’s a new year and the US has a new president, many of the themes and challenges facing the market look highly familiar.

    One of those themes is our belief in stronger growth and reflation. That won’t be my focus today, but it matters. Morgan Stanley’s forecasts for global growth and inflation remain well ahead of consensus estimates for 2021. I’m constantly asked, “Where do you differ?” This area is a big one.

    Instead, I want to focus on another familiar theme. From sentiment measures to conference surveys to investor conversations, it’s abundantly clear that there’s an uncomfortable level of agreement that the market outlook is positive. In November, December and now January, no question or concern has come up more often than ‘everyone is optimistic’.

    I may be exaggerating a little, but the question remains: What are investors supposed to do with all this optimism? And in light of it, how can we justify our own constructive view?

    It is essential to monitor investor sentiment, an indicator as old as the market. But sentiment also requires a disclaimer: Investors tend to get bullish in bull markets (and vice versa). Rising prices and an improving economy tend to make people optimistic. This can cloud the picture; optimism should be higher if this is a sustainable recovery (and we think it is).

    Meanwhile, sentiment measures are better at identifying buying opportunities than market tops. One reason may be that the nature of the events that cause investors to panic means they panic together, creating a strong impulse that leads to an investable low. Optimism, in contrast, is more diffuse and has a harder time producing such a singular moment.

    Consider three sentiment measures that we follow: The Morgan Stanley Global Risk Demand Index, the put/call ratio and the American Association of Individual Investors Survey (AAII). During bull markets, one-month equity returns best when these indicators are in their lowest decile of optimism. Yet one-month returns are still positive, on average, when these same indicators are in their highest decile of optimism. In short, these sentiment indicators work better for ‘buying low’ than ‘selling high’.

    The idea that ‘everyone is optimistic’ is also more complicated than those surveys suggest. Hedge fund net exposure is very high, per analysis from the Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage Strategic Content Group. But US money market fund balances are also high, still US$680 billion above where they were a year ago. So again the picture is nuanced – heavy activity in certain stocks and options, but less extreme overall investment flows. Hedge funds appear optimistic, but many businesses and individuals are still keeping cash on the sidelines, given the uncertainty.

    This nuance extends to market performance. Let’s say that another definition of ‘excessive optimism’ is outsized performance from assets that are already very expensive. But if we look at global equity performance over the last three months, that’s (generally) not what’s happened. In Exhibit 1, we plot three-month global sector performance (the y-axis) against how cheap that sector was three months ago relative to the last 20 years (x-axis). While there are some exceptions, the market has recently been led by sectors with below-average valuations. Tulip mania this is not.

    Other measures of performance convey a similarly mixed picture. In the US, expected equity volatility is still above average, and 12-month stock versus bond performance is pretty ‘normal’ versus history. In Europe, equities have only matched German Bunds over both the last 12 months and three years. In FX, a pro-cyclical pair like Canadian dollar/Swiss franc (CAD/CHF) is still near a decade low. Can excessive optimism be found in segments of the market? Certainly. Is it everywhere? We think these datapoints argue that it’s not.

    This question of ‘what’s really moved?’ is central to our view of markets in light of this optimism. We think there is more room for equities to outperform bonds in the US and Europe, in line with the usual post-recessionary pattern. We believe that select volatility risk premiums can decline. My colleagues David Adams and Sheena Shah in our global macro strategy team like buying CAD/CHF.

    Investors are optimistic. Accepting the limitations of sentiment indicators in calling tops during bull markets, differentiating among the varieties of excess within a rallying market and avoiding segments with the most extreme valuations will all be important.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 18:45

  • Preview Of Biden's Executive Orders For Next Week
    Preview Of Biden’s Executive Orders For Next Week

    Next week President Biden will continue his blitz of executive actions after signing 17 such directives in his first week covering a range of issues – much of which were aimed at undoing various Trump initiatives ranging from immigration to climate policy.

    Via The Economist

    …whether he knows what he’s signing or not for ‘his’ agenda.

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    For his second week in office, Biden plans on signing another flurry of executive actions, going further on climate and immigration, while also focusing on health care and other issues. Each day will have a theme, according to The Hill.

    Monday will be ‘Buy American’ day, during which Biden will sign an executive order directing agencies to strengthen requirements that goods and services are purchased from American businesses and workers. Biden pledged on the campaign trail to make a $400 billion investment during his first term towards purchasing products made by American workers, as well as tighten loopholes and waivers allowing federal agencies to buy products made overseas.

    As The Hill notes, former President Trump signed a ‘buy-American-and-hire-American’ executive order during his first few months in office, aimed at restricting the flow of certain visa-holders, while boosting domestic wages.

    Tuesday is ‘Equity’ day, which will include a ‘broad range of executive orders’ related to racial equity.

    The president is likely to establish a policing commission and reinstate Obama-era rules on the transfer of military-style equipment to local law enforcement. He is also expected to sign an executive order directing the Department of Justice to improve prison conditions and begin to eliminate the use of private prisons.

    Other executive actions lined up for Tuesday include a memorandum directing agencies to strengthen engagement with Native American tribes, a memo ordering the Department of Housing and Urban Development to promote equality in housing, and an order disavowing discrimination against the Asian American and Pacific Islander community. –The Hill

    Other Tuesday actions which have yet to be finalized may involve immigration, and reversing a ban on transgender troops serving on active duty.

    Wednesday will be ‘Climate’ day, where Biden will announce plans for a US-hosted summit to be held on Earth Day, and likely sign an executive order to “combat climate change domestically and elevates climate change as a national security priority,” as well as reestablish the Presidential Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. The move comes after last week’s executive action to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement, while revoking a key permit for the Keystone XL pipeline.

    Thursday is ‘Health Care’ day – during which Biden will likely rescind the so-called Mexico City policy which bans the use of US funds for foreign orgs which endorse or provide abortions.

    The policy, described as a “global gag rule” by reproductive health advocates, was first instated by then-President Reagan, and has been repeatedly rescinded by Democratic presidents and reinstated by Republican presidents in the years since.

    Biden will also order a review of the Trump administration’s controversial changes to the Title X family planning program, which required family planning providers participating in the program to stop providing or promoting abortions to remain eligible for funding. 

    The president is also slated to sign an executive order aimed at strengthening Medicaid and initiating an open enrollment period under the Affordable Care Act. –The Hill

    And finally, Friday will be ‘Immigration’ day – on which Biden will expand some of the immigration-related actions he took on his first day in office. According to The Hill, one of the orders will likely be related to regional migration and border processing, and will rescind Trump-era policies surrounding the asylum program. It will also reportedly contain strategies to address the root causes of Central American migration to the United States. 

    Biden will also sign an order establishing a task force to reunify migrant families separated during the Trump administration. Biden himself faced criticism during the Democratic primaries for the Obama administration’s deportation policies, but the Trump administration implemented an official zero tolerance policy that led to the separation of thousands of migrant families.

    The president will also sign an order directing an immediate review of the public charge rule “and other actions to remove barriers and restore trust in the legal immigration system, including improving the naturalization process.”

    A fourth order, establishing principles to guide the implementation of the Refugee Admission Program, is tentatively on the schedule for Friday but could be scrapped or changed, according to the memo. The Hill

    And there you have it. We can’t help but wonder if the press will be herded out of the room if they dare ask Biden to discuss the sweeping changes he’s making?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 18:20

  • State-By-State Breakdown Of 897 US Hospitals At Risk Of Closing
    State-By-State Breakdown Of 897 US Hospitals At Risk Of Closing

    By Alya Elison of Becker Hospital Review

    More than 500 rural hospitals in the U.S. were at immediate risk of closure before the COVID-19 pandemic because of financial losses and lack of reserves to maintain operations, according to a report from the Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform.

    Nearly every state had at least one rural hospital at immediate risk of closure before the pandemic. In 22 states, 25 percent or more of rural hospitals were at immediate risk, according to the report. 

    The hospitals identified as being at immediate risk of closure had a cumulative negative total margin over the most recent three-year period, and their financial situation has likely deteriorated because of the pandemic. 

    Across the U.S., more than 800 hospitals – 40 percent of all rural hospitals in the country – are either at immediate or high risk of closure. The more than 300 hospitals at high risk closure either have low financial reserves or high dependence on nonpatient service revenues such as local taxes or state subsidies, according to the report. 

    Here are the number and percentage of rural hospitals at risk of closing in each state as of January 2021 based on the CHQPR analysis: 

    Alabama
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 30 (63 percent) 

    Alaska
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 5 (38 percent) 

    Arizona
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 4 (22 percent) 

    Arkansas
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 29 (60 percent) 

    California
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 16 (31 percent) 

    Colorado
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 11 (27 percent) 

    Connecticut
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 3 (100 percent) 

    Delaware
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 0 (0 percent) 

    Florida
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 7 (35 percent) 

    Georgia
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 26 (43 percent) 

    Hawaii
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 8 (67 percent) 

    Idaho
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 7 (25 percent) 

    Illinois
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 20 (27 percent) 

    Indiana
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 20 (38 percent) 

    Iowa
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 40 (44 percent) 

    Kansas 
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 76 (72 percent) 

    Kentucky
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 16 (23 percent) 

    Louisiana
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 26 (53 percent) 

    Maine
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 10 (40 percent) 

    Maryland
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 1 (25 percent) 

    Massachusetts
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 2 (40 percent) 

    Michigan
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 19 (30 percent) 

    Minnesota
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 28 (31 percent) 

    Mississippi
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 41 (62 percent) 

    Missouri
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 31 (54 percent) 

    Montana
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 19 (37 percent) 

    Nebraska
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 24 (33 percent) 

    Nevada
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 6 (46 percent) 

    New Hampshire
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 4 (24 percent) 

    New Jersey
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 0 (0 percent) 

    New Mexico
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 6 (25 percent) 

    New York
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 30 (59 percent) 

    North Carolina
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 19 (36 percent) 

    North Dakota
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 16 (43 percent) 

    Ohio
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 19 (27 percent) 

    Oklahoma
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 41 (56 percent) 

    Oregon
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 11 (34 percent) 

    Pennsylvania
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 18 (42 percent) 

    Rhode Island
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 0 (0 percent) 

    South Carolina
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 12 (48 percent) 

    South Dakota
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 11 (24 percent) 

    Tennessee
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 30 (59 percent) 

    Texas
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 82 (56 percent) 

    Utah
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 3 (14 percent) 

    Vermont
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 2 (15 percent) 

    Virginia
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 14 (50 percent) 

    Washington
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 20 (50 percent) 

    West Virginia
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 11 (46 percent) 

    Wisconsin
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 16 (22 percent) 

    Wyoming
    Rural hospitals at high risk of closing: 7 (30 percent) 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 17:55

  • Fearing Citywide Economic Collapse, Wall Street Firms Offer Help To Speed Up NYC Vaccinations
    Fearing Citywide Economic Collapse, Wall Street Firms Offer Help To Speed Up NYC Vaccinations

    Wall Street is offering to help get New York vaccinated and get life back to normal for workers in the Big Apple.

    Over the last 12 months of the Covid pandemic, the city has been brutalized by small business shutdowns, financial firms moving south, increasing homicides and the general ineptitude of Mayor Bill de Blasio.  As we have noted here on Zero Hedge, the result has been barren streets and plunging rents. 

    Now, financial firms – historically not known for helping anyone but themselves – are reaching out and doing what they can to help distribute the Covid-19 vaccine. They are aiming to show the industry it is safe for employees to come back to Manhattan, Bloomberg notes, before there is “little reason left for them to do so”. 

    NYC real estate mogul William Rudin said: “Needles in arms and people back in their seats and offices. We need to get the vaccine out more ubiquitously to every part of the city and get people confident and comfortable, to get them back into the city and back to work.” DJ D-Sol, CEO of Goldman Sachs, agrees. He was among several firms that included Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup and KKR & Co. that offered to help with vaccine distribution and logistics for the city last week.

    Meanwhile, Mayor Bill de Blasio is dealing with a shrinking supply of vaccines, which caused him to cancel more than 20,000 appointments for the jab last week. 

    As of now, it looks as though working from home is going to continue for at least the first half of 2021 for many firms. “As of Jan. 13, the New York area had an office occupancy rate of about 13%,” Bloomberg notes. It was the second lowest figure, behind only San Francisco, among 10 major U.S. cities. Rents have plunged, as we noted, and retail real estate is flooding the market. Commercial and residential property deals in the city were down 46% last year compared to 2019. This resulted in a $1.6 billion loss in tax revenue for the city.

    Workers, meanwhile, are in the midst of giving up on expensive apartment leases and are, instead, moving to the suburbs or cheaper areas of the city. 

    Ruth Colp-Haber, CEO of real estate services firm Wharton Property Advisors said: “The office market is the crux of the whole New York City economy. Until office workers come back to the market, restaurants, retail will not revive. Same with mass transit.”

    A consortium of Wall Street leaders were on the verge of suggesting employees come back last September, but those ideas ran head-first into a mounting infection rate as the city approached the winter. By December, the few who had returned to work were starting to thin out once again.

    But now, the tone has turned more dire. Firms are offering up their distribution networks, including their retail branches and other real estate they own in the city, to try and help. Wall Street leaders seem to have genuine (and warranted) concern about whether or not New York’s economy could simply collapse if it continues down the path it’s on. 

    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon – also likely tired of not having an intern bring him coffee every morning – said last week that “hopefully by September” things will be back to normal. He concluded: “You do see people want to go back to work once they feel safe. A vaccine will be a big part of that.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 17:30

  • Is Gold Money?
    Is Gold Money?

    Authored by Robert Blumen via The Mises Institute,

    Is gold money? Many would say so, and a web search returns tens of thousands of additional affirmative responses. If you want to start a fight with a gold bug, take the opposite view.

    But is it so?

    To answer the question of whether gold is money requires a definition. This one, from Wikipedia, is typical:

    Money is anything that is generally accepted in payment for goods and services and in repayment of debts. The main uses of money are as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value.

    Wikipedia refers to three properties of money. However, according to the Austrian economist Carl Menger, its acceptability in trade is the defining property. While money undoubtedly does serve as a store of value and a unit of account, these properties are derivative, not definitional properties. The reason that a medium of exchange necessarily is also a store of value is the anticipation of its exchange value in the future.

    On this point Menger wrote,

    [I]t appears to me to be just as certain that the functions of being a “measure of value” and a “store of value” must not be attributed to money as such, since these functions are of a merely accidental nature and are not an essential part of the concept of money.

    Using the above definition, the question of whether any particular good is or is not money, can be posed in this way: is the good in question accepted as the final means of payment for transactions?

    At present, in the developed world, nearly every nation has its own money or belongs to a currency union, such as the EU. Some nations in the developing world use the US dollar. In highly inflationary environments, the local currency is often spontaneously rejected in favor of the dollar or another foreign currency. Hardly anywhere do we find gold generally accepted as a means of payment. So gold must fail the definitional test of moneyness.

    Is this the end of the argument (and so the end of a very short article)? Not quite. Gold is not money, but it has most of the desirable properties of money, and the process by which it became money in the past gives some clues about how it may become money once again.

    A store of value is not necessarily a medium of exchange. As Menger says, a nonmonetary commodity can serve as a store of value:

    But the notion that attributes to money as such the function of also transferring “values” from the present into the future must be designated as erroneous. Although metallic money, because of its durability and low cost of preservation, is doubtless suitable for this purpose also, it is nevertheless clear that other commodities are still better suited for it.

    Analyst Paul van Eeden has shown that gold has maintained its purchasing power relative to the time that the gold standard ended. In “Is Gold an Inflation Hedge?” I have provided links to Van Eeden’s articles and a more detailed discussion. I will summarize his analysis here. A theoretical gold price equivalent which would give gold the same purchasing power as it had at the end of the gold standard is calculated by taking the convertibility ratio of $35 in 1933, and then multiplying by a factor representing the growth in the quantity of fiat money from that time. Under the classical gold standard, gold was the entire world’s money. By counting worldwide growth in currency (not only US dollars) and comparing it to a worldwide price currency index of the gold price, van Eeden avoids the pitfalls of looking only at gold’s dollar price, which can experience significant volatility due to the dollar’s exchange rate against other national currencies.

    Van Eeden’s research shows that, since the end of the gold standard, the price of gold in units of fiat currency has tracked its purchasing-power-equivalent price fairly well, oscillating in a band around its theoretical value. In essence, the purchasing power of gold has been reasonably stable in the time since the end of the gold standard, which is only another way of saying that gold has served as a store of value.

    Even today most of the demand for gold is not for direct use, but demand to hold. In the developed world, people purchase coins and bars for storage in vaults. In other areas, people save by accumulating bullion jewelry. Distinct from ornamental jewelry, bullion jewelry has low workmanship value added. Its price is not much greater than the melt value of its metal content.

    I wrote the following in “The Myth of the Gold Supply Deficit“:

    The World Gold Council estimates that 52% of gold is held as jewelry. James Turk subdivides jewelry holdings into low carat and high carat. The former is purchased mainly for the gold value, as an alternative to buying bars and coins. The latter is purchased mostly for fashion. According to Turk’s estimate (which was published in 1996), monetary jewelry at that time accounted for about 60% of jewelry with fashion jewelry accounting for the remaining 40%. However, even when made into jewelry, the gold is not destroyed and can come back into the market as scrap. The WGC figures show significant recovery from scrap.

    That gold continued to be a store of value post–gold standard was unexpected by many economists. In the early 1970s, when the dollar’s link to gold was cut, economist Milton Friedman predicted that the price of gold would collapse.4 The Nobel laureate believed that the gold derived its value from its relationship with the dollar; without gold backing, there would be far less demand for gold. There would, of course, continue to be industrial demand for the metal, but without monetary demand provided by the dollar, the vast supply that had been accumulated during the preceding centuries would overhand the market, depressing the gold price for the foreseeable future. Friedman could not have been more wrong. It was the dollar that collapsed in the 1970s, while the gold price in dollars began a bull run that was not eclipsed in nominal terms until late last year.

    A similar and still widely held view in the world of mainstream financial analysts is that gold has been “demonetized.” The argument goes like this: central banks decide what money is; central banks have determined that gold is not money; therefore gold is not money. Only the stupid gold investors haven’t figured this out. This view of the gold market sees the price of gold as determined primarily by central banks (who own an estimated 10–17% of aboveground supply). The critical variable is how they will time the sales of their gold hoards without causing a selling panic as market participants realize that their gold coins and bars have no monetary value.

    But why is gold a better store of value than most any of a vast number other nonmonetary goods? Why were Milton Friedman and the other economists wrong? Their error was the assumption that political institutions have the final say over what is and is not money. But this is not so: the market has final say. Looking at the process by which money originated from barter helps to understand why. According to Menger, money came into being through the efforts of individuals to expand the range of goods they could acquire through exchange beyond the possibilities available. Some individuals in a barter economy begin by bartering their goods for a commodity that they do not need but is generally in demand throughout the market, with the intention of later exchanging that commodity for other goods. This strategy is called indirect exchange. These astute traders realize that “the acquisition by trade of the consumption goods that he needs…can proceed…much more quickly, more economically, and with a greatly enhanced probability of success.”

    As societies moved from barter to monetary economies, different goods were in competition with each other for use as money. Over time, as monetary exchange expanded in proportion to barter, some commodities were found to work better as money than others, until only a handful of them became “acceptable to everyone in trade.” Those were gold and silver.

    What qualities have made gold (and silver) the winners of the monetary competition in centuries past? The qualities most often cited by monetary historians are durability, divisibility, recognizability, portability, scarcity (the difficulty of producing more of it), and a value-to-weight ratio that is neither too high nor too low. Too low a ratio would make it hard to carry enough for spending, while too high a ratio would make small transactions difficult and prevent the commodity from being sufficiently widely owned in the prior barter economy. Gold still has these qualities today. While fiat money has some of them, it fails the scarcity test: it is too easy to create more of it.

    The result of market competition is not necessarily permanent. Market competition is an ongoing process. Even when one commodity emerged as money, there continued to be competition from other nonmonetary commodities. Once the world’s money, even gold could have lost its place had a superior alternative emerged. But that is not the reason we no longer use it. Political money did not prove its superiority through a market process. What happened instead was a politically imposed change from a better system to a worse system.

    Although the central bankers have used political means to replace gold with paper, they do not have the power to end the competition between their money and commodity money. The “demonetization” of gold by central banks has rigged the competition—but not ended it.

    Gold as money may not be over for all time. As the monetary system melts down, gold functions as “shadow money,” an alternative that competes with the political money. It remains a store of value because of its potential to become money again. There is continuing demand for gold as a hedge against the breakdown of the fiat system.

    Governments cannot force people to use their money beyond a point. The market will only continue to accept fiat money as long as it works well enough (or even, not too badly). If governments debase their currency beyond a point where it maintains some value over time, people will stop using government currency and switch to something else.

    In countries suffering hyperinflation (or even just excessive inflation), people typically start quoting prices and accepting in trade in the more stable currencies of other countries. Earlier this year, VietNamNet reported that land prices are being quoted in gold rather than the local currency, the dong.

    The world is lurching through a serious monetary disorder. The proximate cause is the collapse of the housing bubble and the subprime-credit crisis, but the ultimate cause is the inherently unstable monetary system foisted upon us by a banking cartel. Central bankers are called upon to act as lenders of last resort, but in their efforts to inflate their way out of the credit collapse, they risk igniting a hyperinflationary bonfire that will destroy the world’s major fiat currencies. Gold was money once, and could become so again.

    [Originally published September 2008.]

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/24/2021 – 17:05

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  • Is The Dis-Uniting Of America Now Inevitable?
    Is The Dis-Uniting Of America Now Inevitable?

    Authored by Robert Bridge via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Joe Biden will ram through warped liberal social experiments masquerading as credible, time-tested programs designed to stabilize the nation.

    It was a stark image never before seen in Washington, DC, and one that bodes ill for the future prospects of the country. A locked down capital ringed in barbed wire, with 25,000 troops encompassing the Capitol building, provided a surreal backdrop to Joe Biden’s inauguration as the 46th POTUS.

    The excuse Democrats have provided for turning the ‘citadel of democracy’ into a maximum security prison is not due to a growing distrust with the electoral process. Nor was it blamed on the spectacle of the mainstream media and Big Tech silencing the voices of exactly one half of the U.S. electorate – up to and including that of the now former president, Donald J. Trump. No, to suggest such irrational things would attract howls of ‘conspiracy theory’ from the liberal gallery.

    Thankfully, we have Silicon Valley fact checkers and corporate media commentators to lead us to the valley of truth, which informs us that all those Trump “insurgents” who invaded the Capitol building on January 6th were motivated by pure evil intentions rooted in racism, sedition and white supremacist ideology. And as Hillary Clinton suggested during an off-the-rails interview with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Trump and his motley crew of deplorables may have taken their marching orders from none other than Vladimir Putin himself. Who needs fiction writers these days when we have the Democratic Party?

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    Conservatives need to come to grips with the realization that they are not dealing with rational people who will be willing to engage in cool-headed discussion and debate. Despite a full sweep of the political landscape, the left remains consumed by a collective fit of rage, hysteria and raw emotion that shows no sign of abating. Why? Partly due to political immaturity in the ranks, and partly because ‘victory’ for the left no longer means victory at the polls; these fanatics, for that is really what they are, will not rest easy until the political opposition is shorn of its voice and representation. In other words, when it is completely and unequivocally obliterated. And given the political proclivities of Big Tech and Big Media, those dreams are dangerously within reach. Unless the right is able to essentially build its own internet architecture to bypass the left’s censorship machine, they will eventually go the way of the dinosaurs as a political force.

    In the meantime, Joe Biden, or whoever will be pulling his strings, will ram through warped liberal social experiments masquerading as credible, time-tested programs designed to stabilize the nation. Of course they are nothing of the sort. These are globalist-backed policies – such as defunding the police, opening the border, vilifying the right as ‘racist,’ and sexualizing the minds of elementary-age children – designed to utterly destabilize the nation and all of its core institutions, including not least of all the nuclear family. Anyone who speaks out against these reckless initiatives will be struck down by the harshest cancel culture cult ever known to man. In fact, ‘domestic terrorism’ legislation is already drafted that, if passed by Congress, will go far at stifling any dissenting voices from the right.

    The very first line of the proposed legislation, entitled ‘Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2020,’ which was conveniently prepared just weeks before the Capitol riots erupted, states that “White supremacists and other far-right-wing extremists are the most significant domestic terrorism threat facing the United States…” Buried deep in the text is a single line devoted to Antifa, and nothing whatsoever about Black Lives Matter, yet these groups were responsible for torching and looting a swath of destruction across the United States following the death of George Floyd during an arrest by a while police officer.

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    Days before Biden’s ironclad inauguration, the media was out in full force propagating the notion of a connection between right-wing Trump supporters and – wait for it – terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda.

    “I did see a similar dynamic in the evolution of al-Qaida in Iraq, where a whole generation of angry Arab youth with very poor prospects followed a powerful leader who promised to take them back in time to a better place, and he led them to embrace an ideology that justified their violence,” Retired Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the former head of Joint Special Operations Command in Iraq and the commander of all U.S. and allied troops in Afghanistan, said in an interview.

    “This is now happening in America.”

    So there you have it, straight from the horse’s mouth: the ‘deplorable’ right in the United States is almost on par with the same guys who carried out the terrorist attacks of 9/11.

    Needless to say, with such outrageous comments making the rounds, there was little chance of a balanced message from Joe Biden’s inaugural speech with regards to the myriad problems now stalking America. Indeed, the address was top heavy with warmed-over clichés about “unity,” as well as references to racism and inequality.

    After four years of groundless rhetoric about “racist Trump supporters” (yet no other conservative president has been so successful at attracting members of the Black and Latino community to the Republican standard than Donald Trump), it was only natural that Biden would allude to “a rise in political extremism, white supremacy, domestic terrorism that we must confront and we will defeat.” Coming just days after the riots at the Capitol building by Trump supporters, which the hapless mainstream media has been at great pains to label a “racist” event, the message made it amply clear for whom the bell tolls.

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    Once again, at this dangerous crossroads in American history, any hope for a true bipartisan breakthrough is doomed to failure, and more so now as the radical progressives in the Democratic Party are demanding the most outrageous social, cultural and political overhaul the nation has ever witnessed. No true conservative will ever abide by these changes.

    At the same time, the voice and demonstrations of the right is not only being brutally vanquished, it is actually being assimilated under the banner of “domestic terrorism.” This marks the widest chasm between the two primary political parties in the United States, which, unless quickly bridged, will end in imminent disaster for the American experiment in democracy.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 23:30

  • Putting The Cost Of COVID-19 In Perspective
    Putting The Cost Of COVID-19 In Perspective

    When it comes to the toll on human life, mental well-being, and any long-term complications, the true cost of COVID-19 (and government’s response) can be difficult to quantify.

    That said, from a purely economic angle, Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop notes that researchers can and do examine these things – as well as economic data like unemployment and lost GDP, to assign dollar figures to the pandemic.

    Using data from a study out of Harvard University, these visualizations focus on putting the economic cost of COVID-19 in the U.S. in perspective. To help us understand the immense price associated with a pandemic, the study looked at other comparables like the costs of running America’s longstanding war on terror.

    The Cost of COVID-19

    Since the pandemic took hold in the U.S. in March 2020, job loss has been one of the most significant consequences. Unemployment claims in the U.S. have recently reached a total of 60 million, while lost GDP is estimated to be around $7.6 trillion.

    Unemployment, uncertainty, lost loved ones, and lost social connections, have led to spikes in depression and anxiety. In April 2020, around 40% of U.S. adults reported having at least one of these mental illnesses. Based on the sheer number of people struggling, the cost of mental health impairment could be as high as $1.6 trillion, according to these researchers.

     

     

    The economic value of a human life can be put in terms of ‘statistical lives’, a notion used in both American and global health policy. While human life is priceless, the value tied to one using this metric sits between $7-$10 million. Even when using the lower end of the scale, the cost of premature death due to COVID-19 is estimated to be $4.4 trillion.

     

    Finally, when looking at the long-term healthcare costs that could impact people who contract COVID-19, the price comes out to almost $2.6 trillion. These costs will go on for decades as certain lifelong conditions can emerge out of COVID-19, like respiratory and cardiovascular issues.

    Many of these conditions could also end up causing premature deaths, drawing out the total cost of COVID-19 even further.

    The Cost of War

    Both a global pandemic and a war have long-term health consequences and are extremely pricey.

    The estimated cost of the post-9/11 wars rises to over $6 trillion. This is measured by the spending of the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and USAID. The estimate also takes into consideration current and future spending on medical and disability care for veterans, the cost of war appropriations and spending, the estimated interest on borrowing for different departments, and the spending the Department of Homeland Security has done in order to prevent and respond to terrorism.

    Medical and disability care for veterans from the post-9/11 wars specifically comes out to $437 billion, with estimated future obligations for their care going up to $1 trillion.

    The increases to the Department of Defense’s budget was $803 billion thanks to the post 9/11 wars, and the Department of Homeland Security has spent more $1.05 trillion on terrorism prevention and response.

    While the costs associated with war are immense, and while the consequences of fighting in a war are usually lifelong, the estimated price is still about $10 trillion cheaper than the cost of COVID-19 in the United States.

    Throwing Money at the Problem?

    The short-term solution to COVID-19 seems to be vaccine investment, with the U.S. currently purchasing more than one billion doses. Vaccines could spell the return to a more normal life, both in terms of physical health and the health of the economy.

    While economic recovery is on the horizon, the U.S—and other nations around the globe—will continue to pay the cost of COVID-19 for years to come.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 23:00

  • Biden Will Keep US Embassy In Jerusalem, Unlikely To Reverse Trump's Israel Policies
    Biden Will Keep US Embassy In Jerusalem, Unlikely To Reverse Trump’s Israel Policies

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    During this week’s Senate confirmation hearings, Joe Biden’s secretary of state nominee said the new administration will keep the US embassy in Israel in Jerusalem.

    “Do you agree that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and do you commit that the United States will keep our embassy in Jerusalem?” Antony Blinken was asked by Republican Senator Ted Cruz (TX).

    “Yes and Yes,” Blinken responded. His answer was not a surprise, as Joe Biden said he would not reverse Trump’s embassy move back in 2020 while on the campaign trail.

    The question now is if President Biden will reverse any of the Trump administration’s pro-Israel policy changes, like the recognition of the Golan Heights as Israeli territory and the legal status of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

    According to analysis featured in Al Jazeera while Biden was on the campaign trail:

    Nonetheless, experts do not expect the modus operandi to change significantly under Biden. While the president-elect has already stated he would not move the embassy back to Tel Aviv, he will also not reverse Trump’s recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights either, a senior Biden campaign official stated on Tuesday.

    Moreover, Biden has also vehemently opposed pro-Palestinian initiatives from within his party. During the Democratic primaries, Senator Bernie Sanders suggested the US ought to utilize its Israel support as leverage and demand concessions for the Palestinians.

    Biden’s response was concise as it was unmistakable: “ridiculous and unacceptable”, he called Sanders’ idea.

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    In 2019, the Trump administration said the US no longer considered settlements in the occupied West Bank illegal. In the final weeks of the Trump administration, Israel moved forward plans for thousands of new settlements, a clear message to Biden.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 22:30

  • Chesapeake Bay Oyster Prices Collapse As Diners Ditch Restaurants Amid Pandemic 
    Chesapeake Bay Oyster Prices Collapse As Diners Ditch Restaurants Amid Pandemic 

    According to The Southern Maryland Chronicle, the ripple effect of restaurant closures and indoor capacity limits at eateries across the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area has decimated the oyster industry on Maryland’s Chesapeake Bay. 

    For many who make a living off the Chesapeake Bay’s oysters, this past fall and winter have been a living nightmare. 

    Watermen in Maryland and Virginia say the problem isn’t supply but rather demand. 

    “We got lots of oysters, and they’re excellent quality,” said Bill Sieling, executive vice president of the Chesapeake Bay Seafood Industries Association, representing Maryland crab and oyster processors. “I’ve bought two bushels this fall, and I’ve never seen oysters this fat.”

    The coronavirus pandemic and resulting lockdowns and continuing restaurant restrictions have led to a decline of diners at restaurants. This has indirectly impacted the local seafood industry as oyster demand from restraunts has plummeted. 

    Market research firm NDP Group, which tracks 75 restaurant chains, warned transactions at major chains slumped 10% in December versus the same month one year ago. 

    Watermen on the bay are saying wild-caught bushels that wholesaled for $50 dockside in 2019 only brought $30 last year. Margins collapsed for watermen making many of their operations unprofitable and unsustainable as 2021 is another year of uncertainty. 

    “Come Oct. 1, the bottom just fell out of the market,” said Fred Tull, who raises oysters on 10 acres in the Little Annemessex River by Crisfield, MD. In mid-December, when holiday demand for shellfish is usually strong, he said, “I’ve got oysters to sell and no market.”

    Mobjack Bay Seafood, a wholesaler of oysters in Ware Neck, Virginia, said sales were down 70% last year thanks to plummeting demand for oysters from restaurants. 

    The restaurant industry’s collapse is having indirect impacts on other industries that will persist through 2021. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 22:00

  • "Here Are The Superheroes To Come And Save Us All": Media Waste No Time Fawning Over Biden
    “Here Are The Superheroes To Come And Save Us All”: Media Waste No Time Fawning Over Biden

    Authored by Alan Macleod via MintPressNews.com,

    We rely on the media to hold the powerful to account. But in its first hours in office, the corporate press has celebrated, rather than challenged, the new Biden administration.

    It began immediately during the 78-year-old Delawarean’s inauguration, with senior figures in the media barely able to contain their emotions watching what they saw.

    “As Lady Gaga sang the national anthem, the sky opened up and sunlight reflected off of the Capitol, illuminating the flag,” wrote Olivia Nuzzi, the New Yorker’s Washington correspondent.

    The New York Times was in a similarly poetic mood. “Whether or not related to the former president’s absence, a bipartisan lightness seemed to prevail across the stage at President Joe Biden’s inauguration. Snow flurries gave way to sun,” ran its subheadline.

    If it were not clear enough that corporate media intends to spend the next four years propping up, rather than scrutinizing President Biden, then senior CNN figures spelled it out.

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    “Trump—>Biden. Lies—>truth. Ignorance—>knowledge. Amorality—>decency. Cruelty—> empathy. Corruption—>public service” wrote CNN’s White House correspondent John J. Harwood on Twitter, attributing several extremely positive (and questionable) qualities to the incoming president. Meanwhile, the company’s head of strategic communications, Matt Dornic, was in an even more bombastic mood. Sharing a picture of fireworks exploding over the Washington Monument, he remarked that, “This team truly understands optics. These images will inspire our friends and shake our foes.”

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    Leaving aside why some colorful pyrotechnics would terrify Russia, China or any nation, Dornic’s rhetoric worried many who felt the nation’s top journalists should see themselves as the government’s adversaries, rather than their allies. “Note how this CNN imperial stenographer fearmongers about foreign bogeymen with his “foe” rhetoric. The real foe of average working-class Americans isn’t any foreign nation; it’s the parasitic capitalist oligarchs who control everything and their lackeys in politics and the media,” replied Ben Norton of The Grayzone.

    Channeling similar energy to a born again Christian preacher praising Trump, former Fox News and NBC News host Megyn Kelly announced that, “Today, I feel deep love for our country, and am praying for President Biden, Vice President Harris and for all of us as we navigate what comes next.”

    Perhaps the most adulatory coverage of the inauguration came from MSNBC, however, with analyst John Heilemann depicting the senior politicians present as almost mythical ubermensch. “What was to me so striking about today was that comforting sense,” he said. “The sight of the Clintons and the Bushes and the Obamas — The Avengers, the Marvel superheroes back up there together all in one place with their friend Joe Biden.” He later went on to compare Biden’s speech to Abraham Lincoln’s second inaugural address of 1865 after the union victory in the American Civil War and claimed there was a deep sense of relief washing over the nation’s capital..

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    This sentiment was apparently not shared by ordinary people on the street. Even as it was praising Biden, the New York Times reported that “The few who ventured near the Capitol were mostly somber, as if they were attending a vigil.” “It feels a little postapocalyptic, to be honest,” one told them.

    Comparing politicians they are, in theory, supposed to be challenging to superheroes has unfortunately become a common occurrence on corporate media. In November, PBS NewsHour White House correspondent Yamiche Alcindor said Biden and co. were like The Avengers. “It felt like we are being rescued from the craziness and now here are the superheroes to come and save us all.”

    Today on MSNBC, Alcindor insisted that she and her White House press colleagues would “ask tough questions” of Biden even as she was heaping praise on his administration. Yet this has already proven not to be the case. On her first day as White House press secretary, Jen Psaki was thrown a number of softball questions by reporters, including whether Biden was planning to stick with Trump’s color scheme change on Air Force One.

    The president’s stenographers

    Trust in media has been falling since the 1970s, and particularly in the last few years. Part of that is due to ultra partisan reporting, a practice pioneered by Fox News in the 1990s. What Rupert Murdoch realized was that capturing a loyal following from a small segment of the population could actually be more profitable than trying to appeal to as broad an audience as possible. Since then, Fox’s model has been copied by other outlets, notably MSNBC, the New York Times, and the Washington Post, who have positioned themselves as anti-Trump and pro-Democrat news sources. The result has been to create an extremely polarized media ecosystem, with each side championing their leaders and not willing to listen to the other. Unsurprisingly, Fox has been highly critical of the new president, with top host Sean Hannity attacking Biden, claiming he is physically and mentally unfit for office. “The country should be asking tonight, Mr. Unity, Mr. Frail, Weak, Cognitively Struggling Joe, I know this is past your bedtime,” he opined.

    This has seriously deleterious effects on the political system. An adversarial media is the cornerstone of any functioning democracy. Thomas Jefferson once remarked that “Were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers, or newspapers without a government … I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter.” Unfortunately, if Biden’s first few days are any indicator, the press will choose to prop up rather than scrutinize the new president. Media that behaved as attack dogs against Trump for four years (unless he was carrying out aggressive actions abroad) are likely to turn into lap dogs now that there is a Democrat in the White House — something that is unlikely to be a positive thing for the country.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 21:30

  • US Economy Set To Overheat As Households Are Flooded With $2 Trillion In Excess Savings
    US Economy Set To Overheat As Households Are Flooded With $2 Trillion In Excess Savings

    Something unprecedented happened in the immediate aftermath of the passage of the $2.2 trillion CARES act: as a result of the unprecedented transfer of wealth from the government to consumers in the form of countless stimulus measures, personal incomes soared and personal spending plunged (as the economy was largely shut down especially for spending on services), resulting in what we showed in May was an explosion in the annualized amount of Personal Savings, which soared by a mindblowing $4 trillion in May, rising from $2.1 trillion to $6.1 trillion…

    … and accounting for a record 33% of disposable personal income!

    As an aside, and as we pointed out back in May, contrary to economist expectations that “rational” consumers would promptly use this “one-time” universal basic income wealth transfer to pay down debt and get their financial affairs in orders, it appears that many splurged these government “stimmy checks” to buy stonks.

    We bring all this up because the US savings rate, which has since dropped of substantially as a result of the gradual reopening of the economy as Americans spent much of their covid stimulus checks…

    … is about to soar again when the latest personal spending and income data is released next month to account for the passage of the December $900 billion stimulus package, and then even more once Biden’s various covid stimulus programs kick in.

    In a note explaining why the US economy is likely to grow well above the bank’s baseline assumption of 5.0% GDP (the strongest since 1984), the bank’s head global economist  Ethan Harris writes that “we have all become a bit numb to big numbers in the past year. Thus when the Biden administration announced its $1.9tn stimulus proposal, on top of $0.9tn already enacted, it triggered a relatively low-key response in the press and the markets. “Been there, done that” seemed to be the reaction.”

    According to BofA, the Biden stimulus proposal is in fact, “a very big deal” because if enacted, it would mean the recent stimulus packages match the stimulus last spring, despite the dramatic improvement in the economy. That’s not all; restrictions on activity last year meant much of that stimulus went into savings, savings that can be deployed when the service sector reopens. As explained below, this creates major upside risks to our above-consensus forecast.

    But first, a quick walk down memory lane.

    • Last April, the consensus for 2020 GDP was for a -3.3% decline and by May that had worsened to -5.7%. Today, the consensus looks for 2021 growth of about 4.1% and BofA sees 5.0% growth. That would be the strongest year for US GDP growth since 1984. Again, this is without factoring in a second stimulus package.
    • Last April, the consensus expected unemployment to hit 7.3% in the year ahead and by May that had risen to 9%. In reality, the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.7%, and the consensus expects the unemployment rate to fall to 5.3% by year-end.

    The differences are equally stark in capital markets. On 23 March 2020, the S&P500 hit bottom, 34% off of its peak and most forecasters expected a slow, painful recovery at best. Nine months later the equity market is hitting all-time highs with no sign yet of leveling off. Similar stories apply to credit markets and risk appetite in general. These strong markets pre-date the “blue wave” and the $1.9tn proposal.

    The outlook for the COVID crisis has also changed dramatically. Last spring and summer the end of the crisis was nowhere in sight. Most experts argued that a vaccine would likely be years away and many warned of a major resurgence of cases in the fall. Today, we are nearing the exit of the COVID cave, as increasingly more vocal Wall Street banks now believe. The vaccine is rolling out at an accelerating pace – and is expected to reach 1 million people per day – so that by the spring, hospitalizations – which just saw their fastest weekly drop on record – will have likely fallen by more than half. Herd immunity is likely sometime in the second half of this year.

    Going back to the question of the wave of stimulus that is about to wash over the US economy, both the consensus and apparently Administration economists seem to be ignoring how COVID containment measures can delay the benefits of fiscal stimulus according to BofA. Last year, fiscal authorities were operating with one hand tied behind their back. No amount of fiscal stimulus was going to revive the service sector. The stimulus boosted goods spending and some of what would have been spent on services went to goods, but a major portion went into excess savings (see charts above). This is why the multiplier effects of the stimulus were unusually low.

    How much excess saving was accumulated? Consider two simple calculations:

    • First, comparing actual household savings to savings assuming a flat 8.25% saving rate, a cumulative $1.4tn in “excess savings” piled up on household balance sheets through November of last year.
    • Second, comparing the monetary aggregate M2 to a baseline of steady 7% growth, there was $2.9tn of excess M2 balances-checking accounts, savings accounts, and so on-at the end of last year.

    As BofA’s Ethan Harris then writes, by the time the economy starts to reopen in the spring, those numbers could get considerably bigger. Specifically, BofA estimates that the $0.9tn package alone will add another $200bn or so to excess saving. If the $1.9tn is deployed quickly, total excess savings could approach $2tn by the spring!

    The surge in savings will happen because, as Credit Suisse writes in a note on Friday, disposable “personal income will rise sharply in Q1 to just shy of its April peak after the $900bn relief bill (Figure 3). More stimulus under the Biden administration will push income even higher.”

    What happens then, and will all these government transfer payment and excess savings send the economy into overdrive? To Credit Suisse Biden’s relief package – the third substantial stimulus in 12 months, following the $2.2tn CARES act and the $900bn bipartisan relief bill that passed in December – will lead to an even stronger economic tailwind, “perhaps blowing hardest just as normal social interactions are resuming while the pandemic ends.” It’s also why the bank just revised up its GDP growth forecasts this year higher from 5.5% (Q4/Q4) to 6.6%.

    Perhaps it’s not all that simple: as BofA’s Harris explains, it is unfortunately hard to know how much of this spending power will be deployed when the economy reopens as we simply do not have any historical experience to draw on. However, “it does suggest that net stimulus today could be a good deal higher than the effective stimulus last summer” as much of it will be focused on serves as BofA explains next:

    We expect there to be a rotation of the consumer basket towards experience-based spending from goods spending once the virus is sufficiently contained and people feel comfortable reengaging in COVID-sensitive activities (See Table 2 & Table 3 for a breakout of goods and services spending performance).

    The timing will depend on a number of factors, including the potential spread of more contagious strains of the virus, the speed of vaccine distribution and the efficacy of vaccines.

    If the US is able to sustain the current pace of vaccination (nearly 1mn per day), we think the turning point where consumers begin to shift money toward experiences will be mid-year. But there are two other important assumptions: what is the normalized level and how long does it take to return?

    Focusing on services spending, we define normal as a return to pre-COVID level for “lost” spending, 50% overshoot for partial and complete offset for the full make-up spending categories (see Table 3). For argument’s sake, if we assume that the normalized level of services spending is reached by the end of 2022, it could require $2.9tn of spending (Chart 2,-Chart 4). This implies an average monthly growth rate of 1.1% mom SA for service spending as compared to the pre-COVID average monthly rate of 0.3% mom SA.

    The above analysis only looks at the data on the aggregate. However, it is important to understand the distributional dynamics. We believe that much of the pent-up demand for services is among the higher-income population which, conveniently, is also where much of the excess savings is concentrated. Our view is supported by the fact that 1) the labor market has healed faster for the higher income population and 2) our BAC credit and debit card data suggest there is more room for recovery among high-income  households, and 3) higherincome individuals tend to have a larger share of dollars allocated toward leisure activity in “normal” times, suggesting more pent-up demand from this group for services spend.

    Of course, it will take some time to see how this plays out, but as we pointed out last week, we have already seen a significant boost to spending in the first half of January (see “Real-Time Card Spending Data Shows The Next Stimulus-Funded Buying Spree Has Arrived“). It will also take some time to figure out how much of the $1.9tn package is going to pass (consensus appears to believe that the final number will be around $1.1 trillion). And we will not know the lagged impact of fiscal stimulus on the service sector until it starts to reopen in the spring. Finally, the new variants of COVID could force new shutdowns, delaying the recovery.

    The bottom line however is this: as BofA economist Michelle Meyer writes, “the need for massive “rescue package” could be fading” as her work “suggests there is already significant excess savings to be spent once the economy reopens. We estimate that spending on services was cut by about $900bn as a result of the pandemic but yet durable goods spending was only boosted by about $20bn. Contrary to popular belief, the money that otherwise would have been used for services spending was not just pumped into goods but instead much went to “unintentional” savings.” Meanwhile savings were also boosted by extraordinary fiscal stimulus. The bottom line, as noted above, is that there could be $1.4tn in excess savings currently which is heading to $1.6tn in January following the $900bn stimulus package. And, if  If Biden’s $1.9tn stimulus is deployed quickly, total excess savings could approach $2tn by the spring! All that money could send the economy, and inflation, into overdrive.

    The good news: as Harris summarizes, “what we feel confident about already is that there are considerable upside risks to our above-consensus forecast.” That’s also the bad news, because while the Fed is confident that there is absolutely no basis for expecting a surge in inflation, should US household savings soar to $2 trillion and then proceed to be aggressively spent in the coming months, it is a guarantee that prices will rise sharply in the second half of the year… which incidentally is when increasingly more Wall Street strategists expect a market crash (see “”6 Months For A Regime Change”: Why One Strategist Believes The Market Will Crash In The Second Half Of 2021“.)

    Why? Because once even the Fed concedes that fiscal and monetary policies have unleashed inflation, the Fed will once again be boxed in, and will soon be forced to aggressively start tightening financial conditions, especially if inflation surges above the 2.5% tentative threshold that the Fed is indifferent toward as a result of last year’s change to the Fed’s average inflation targeting policy.

    It’s also why Wells Fargo strategist Chris Harvey said that the biggest “pain trade” for 2021 is an economic recovery:

    “Funny enough, I think the big pain trade for a lot of people on the buy side is a recovery or a strong recovery, because many people haven’t traded in a post-recessionary environment. Many people have been trading in a low-growth or recessionary environment. And when growth is abundant, different things happen. The market rewards value and small caps and cyclicals and that could cause a lot of pain for much of the buy side, because they’re so steeped in that growth trade.”

    In short, good news for the economy will be the worst possible news for risk assets.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 21:00

  • Greenwald: The Moronic Firing Of Will Wilkinson
    Greenwald: The Moronic Firing Of Will Wilkinson

    Authored by Glenn Greenwald via greenwald.substack.com,

    Will Wilkinson is about as mainstream and conventional a thinker as one can find, and is unfailingly civil and restrained in his rhetoric. But yesterday, he was fired by the technocratic centrist think tank for which he worked, the Niskanen Center, and appears on the verge of being fired as well by The New York Times, where he is a contributing writer. This multi-pronged retribution is due to a single tweet that was obviously satirical and sarcastic and for which he abjectly apologized. But no matter: the tweet has been purposely distorted into something malevolent and the prevailing repressive climate weaponized it against him.

    Will Wilkinson, who worked until Monday at the Niskanen Center think tank and as a Contributing Writer at The New York Times (Twitter)

    Neither Wilkinson nor his tweet are particularly interesting. What merits attention here is the now-pervasive climate that fostered this tawdry episode, and which has unjustly destroyed countless reputations and careers with no sign of slowing down.

    During the Bush and Obama years, Wilkinson worked at the libertarian CATO Institute but, even then, he was not much of a libertarian. As he himself explained, he is far more of a standard-issue neoliberal that one finds everywhere throughout DC think tanks, the op-ed pages of large newspapers, and the green rooms of CNN, just with a bit wonkier style of expression and a few vague libertarian gestures on some isolated issues. That self-description was in 2012, and he since then has become even more of a standard liberal during the Trump era, which is why the Paper of Record made him a contributor opinion writer where he published articles under such bold and groundbreaking headlines as “Trump Has Disqualified Himself From Running in 2020.”

    On Wednesday, the night of Joe Biden’s inauguration, Wilkinson posted this now-deleted tweet in which he was obviously not calling for violence. He was instead sardonically noting that anti-Pence animus became a prevailing sentiment among some MAGA followers over the last month, including reports that at least a few of those who breached the Capitol were calling for Pence’s hanging on treason grounds, thus ironically enabling liberals and MAGA followers to “unite” over that desire:

    The next morning, a right-wing hedge fund manager and large-money GOP donor, Gabe Hoffman, flagged this tweet and claimed to believe that Wilkinson “call[ed] for former Vice President Mike Pence to be lynched.” Hoffman also tweeted at Wilkinson’s New York Times bosses to ask if they have “any comment on your ‘contributing opinion writer’ calling for violence against a public official?,” and then tweeted at Wilkinson’s other bosses at the think tank to demand the same.

    It is unclear whether Hoffman really believed what he was saying or was just trying to make a point that liberals should be forced to live under these bad faith, repressive “cancel culture” standards he likely blames them for creating and imposing on others. This is how he responded when I posed that question:

    I was not attempting anything. Numerous major news outlets reported on Wilkinson’s tweet, including Fox News. I simply documented the events on my Twitter feed yesterday. Clearly, many liberal journalists were outraged at his firing, noticed my documentation, and decided to inexplicably blame me for his firing. It’s ridiculous that many liberal journalists apparently had nothing better to do on Twitter, than blame a guy with less than 10,000 followers documenting events, for getting Wilkinson fired, considering many major news outlets reported on Wilkinson’s tweet.

    When I pressed further on whether he really believed that Wilkinson’s tweet was an earnest call for assassination or whether he was just demanding that perceived “cancel culture” standards be applied equally, he responded: “I did not take a position either way on the matter. Wilkinson is perfectly capable of explaining the tweet and his intended meaning, since he wrote it. Clearly, given the content, the least one can expect is that he should give that explanation.”

    Either way, intentional or not, Hoffman’s distorted interpretation of Wilkinson’s tweet produced instant results. That afternoon, Wilkinson posted a long and profuse apology to Twitter in which he made clear that he did not intend to advocate violence, but still said: “Last night I made an error of judgment and tweeted this. It was sharp sarcasm, but looked like a call for violence. That’s always wrong, even as a joke. It was especially wrong at a moment when unity and peace are so critical. I’m deeply sorry and vow not to repeat the mistake. . . . [T]here was no excuse for putting the point the way I did. It was wrong, period.”

    At least for now, that apology fell on deaf ears. The president and co-founder of the Niskanen Center, Jerry Taylor, quickly posted a statement (now deleted without comment) announcing Wilkinson’s immediate firing, a statement promptly noted by Hoffman:

    Statement of Niskanen Center, posted to Twitter the evening of Jan. 21 and now deleted without comment, by President Jerry Taylor

     

    Wilkinson’s job with The New York Times is also clearly endangered. A spokesperson for the paper told Fox News: “Advocating violence of any form, even in jest, is unacceptable and against the standards of The New York Times. We’re reassessing our relationship with Will Wilkinson.”

    So a completely ordinary and unassuming liberal commentator is in jeopardy of having his career destroyed because of a tweet that no person in good faith could possibly believe was actually advocating violence and which, at worst, could be said to be irresponsibly worded. And this is happening even though everyone knows it is all based on a totally fictitious understanding of what he said. Why?


    It is important to emphasize that Wilkinson’s specific plight is the least interesting and important aspect of this story. Unlike most people subjected to these sorts of bad faith reputation-wrecking attacks, he has many influential media friends and allies who are already defending him — including New York Times columnists Ezra Klein and Ross Douthat — and I would be unsurprised if this causes the paper to keep him and the Niskanen Center to reverse its termination of him.

    All of this is especially ironic given that the president of this colorless, sleepy think tank — last seen hiring the colorless, sleepy Matt Yglesias — himself has a history of earnestly and non-ironically advocating actual violence against people. As Aaron Sibarium documented, Taylor took to Twitter over the summer to say that he wishes BLM and Antifa marchers had “rushed” the St. Louis couple which famously displayed guns outside their homes and “beat their brains in,” adding: “excuse me if I root for antifa to punch these idiots out.” So that’s the profound, pious believer in non-violence so deeply offended by Wilkinson’s tweet that he quickly fired him from his think tank.

    Whatever else might be true of them, the Niskanen Center’s president and The New York Times editors are not dumb enough to believe that Wilkinson was actually advocating that Mike Pence be lynched. It takes only a few functional brain cells to recognize what his actual intent with that tweet was, as poorly expressed or ill-advised as it might have been given the context-free world of Twitter and the tensions of the moment. So why would they indulge all this by firing a perfectly inoffensive career technocrat, all to appease the blatant bad faith and probably-not-even-serious demands of the mob?

    Because this is the framework that we all now live with. It does not matter whether the anger directed at the think tank executives or New York Times editors is in good faith or not. It is utterly irrelevant whether there is any validity to the complaints against Wilkinson and the demands that he be fired. The merit of these kinds of grievance campaigns is not a factor.

    All that matters to these decision-makers is societal scorn and ostracization. That is why the only thing that can save Wilkinson is that he has enough powerful friends to defend him, enabling them to reverse the cost-benefit calculus: make it so that there is more social scorn from firing Wilkinson than keeping him. Without the powerful media friends he has assembled over the years, he would have no chance to salvage his reputation and career no matter how obvious it was that the complaints against him are baseless.

    Humans are social and political animals. We do fundamentally crave and need privacy. But we also crave and need social integration and approval. That it is why prolonged solitary confinement in prison is a form of torture that is almost certain to drive humans insane. It is why John McCain said far worse than the physical abuse he endured in a North Vietnamese prison was the long-term isolation to which he was subjected. It is why modern society’s penchant for removing what had been our sense of community — churches, mosques, and synagogues; union halls and bowling leagues; small-town life — has coincided with a significant increase in mental health pathologies, and it is why the lockdowns and isolation of the COVID pandemic have made all of those, predictably, so much worse.

    Those who have crafted a society in which mob anger, no matter how invalid, results in ostracization and reputation-destruction have exploited these impulses. If you are a think tank executive in Washington or a New York Times editor, why would you want to endure the attacks on you for “sanctioning violence” or “inciting assassinations” just to save Will Wilkinson? The prevailing culture vests so much weight in these sorts of outrage mobs that it is almost always easier to appease them than resist them.

    The recent extraordinary removal of the social media platform Parler from the internet was clearly driven by these dynamics. It is inconceivable that Tim Cook, Jeff Bezos and Google executives believe that Parler is some neo-Nazi site that played anywhere near the role in planning and advocating for the Capitol riot as Facebook and YouTube did. But they know that significant chunks of liberal elite culture believe this (or at least claim to), and they thus calculate — not irrationally, even if cowardly — that they will have to endure a large social and reputational hit for refusing mob demands to destroy Parler. Like the Niskanen and Times bosses with Wilkinson, they had to decide how much pain they were willing to accept to defend Parler, and — as is usually the case — it turned out the answer was not much. Thus was Parler destroyed, with nowhere near the number of important liberal friends that Wilkinson has.

    The perception that this is some sort of exclusively left-wing tactic is untrue. Recall in 2003, in the lead-up to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, when the lead singer for the Dixie Chicks, Natalie Maines, uttered this utterly benign political comment at a concert in London: “Just so you know, we’re on the good side with y’all. We do not want this war, this violence. And we’re ashamed the President of the United States is from Texas.” In response, millions joined a boycott of their music, radio stations refused to play their songs, Bush supporters burned their albums, and country star Toby Keith performed in front of a gigantic image of Maines standing next to Saddam Hussein, as though her opposition to the war meant she admired the Iraqi dictator.

    But two recent trends have greatly intensified this mania. Social media is one of the most powerful generators of group-think ever invented in human history, enabling a small number of people to make decision-makers feel besieged with scorn and threatened with ostracization if they do not obey mob demands. The other is that the liberal-left has gained cultural hegemony in the most significant institutions — from academia and journalism to entertainment, sports, music and art — and this weapon, which they most certainly did not invent, is now vested squarely in their hands.

    But all weapons, once unleashed onto the world, will be copied and wielded by opposing tribes. Gabe Hoffman has likely seen powerless workers fired in the wake of the George Floyd killing for acts as trivial as a Latino truck driver innocently flashing an “OK” sign at a traffic light or a researcher fired for posting data about the political effects of violent v. non-violent protests and realized that he could use, or at least trifle with, this power against liberals instead of watching it be used by them. So he did it.

    It’s exactly the same dynamic that led liberals to swoon over Donald Trump’s banning from social media and the mass-banning of his followers only to watch yesterday as numerous Antifa accounts were banned for the crime of organizing an anti-Biden march and how, before that, Palestinian journalists and activists have been banned en masse whenever Israel claims their rhetoric constitutes “incitement.”

    Unleash this monster and one day it will come for you. And you’ll have no principle to credibly invoke in protest when it does. You’ll be left with nothing more than lame and craven pleading that your friends do not deserve the same treatment as your enemies. Force, not principle, will be the sole factor deciding the outcome.

    If you’re lucky enough to have important and famous media friends like Will Wilkinson, you have a chance to survive it. Absent that, you have none.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 20:30

  • Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman Hauls In $33 Million In 2020
    Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman Hauls In $33 Million In 2020

    Morgan Stanley’s CEO James Gorman passed J.P. Morgan’s Jamie Dimon in total compensation for 2020, racking up $33 million in salary.

    The 2020 take marked a 22% rise in Gorman’s pay from the year prior. In 2020, Morgan Stanley posted its “third consecutive year of record earnings”, according to Bloomberg

    Gorman’s salary was $1.5 million and included a $7.8 million bonus. He also received $23.6 million in long-term stock awards, which vest over time. “Consistent with previous years, 75% of Gorman’s incentive compensation is deferred over three years and is subject to clawback, and 100% of Mr. Gorman’s deferred incentive compensation is delivered in the form of equity awards,” Bloomberg noted.

    Gorman had taken a surprise pay cut in 2019, tied to cost-cutting efforts and a round of layoffs at the firm. In 2020, the firm didn’t undertake any new cuts while some of its banking rivals reneged on promises to due the same, citing the Covid-19 pandemic as a scapegoat.

    Also in 2020, Morgan Stanley carried out two of the largest deals done on Wall Street. Its market cap is now nearly 30% higher than Goldman Sachs. 

    A company filing said the compensation committee based his salary on  “outstanding individual performance, including both significant progress in implementing a long-term strategy previously articulated by Mr. Gorman that has led to transformational change and a resilient business model, and the Firm’s record financial performance for 2020.”

    Recall, we noted late last week that competitor Jamie Dimon’s salary had held steady for 2020 at $31.5 million. 

    J.P. Morgan noted that “amid the unprecedented health and economic consequences of Covid-19” it was also still able to post record revenue and hold a strong balance sheet, even while provisioning $12 billion for credit losses. Its shares wound up down 8% for the year, despite a weeks-long rally to end the year. 

    Dimon’s pay package similarly included $1.5 million base pay, a $5 million bonus and $25 million in “performance share units” that vest over time.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 20:00

  • New Law Allows China's Coast Guard To Fire On Foreign Vessels
    New Law Allows China’s Coast Guard To Fire On Foreign Vessels

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    China’s legislature passed a law on Friday that gives its coast guard more freedom to fire on foreign vessels. According to the text of the law released by China’s Xinhua, it aims to safeguard “national sovereignty, security and maritime rights.”

    The law allows China’s Coast Guard to take “all necessary means”, including the use of weapons, to stop or prevent threats from foreign vessels. The law will allow the coast guard to stop and board vessels in China’s “jurisdictional waters”.

    Via Bloomberg

    China’s Coast Guard is relatively young, having formed in 2013 after previously being part of Beijing’s People’s Armed Police. The new law gives China’s Coast Guard an authority most country’s coast guards have. Still, the law is significant because of China’s maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas, disputes that the US has involved itself in.

    In the South China Sea, Beijing and several Southeast Asian countries have overlapping claims. Since 2015, the US began sailing warships near Chinese-claimed waters in the region, maneuvers that were stepped up during the Trump administration and will likely continue under President Biden.

    In the East China Sea, China and Japan both claim the Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyus in China. Japan currently administers the uninhabited islands. Chinese coast guard vessels were recently spotted in waters near the Senkakus, which drew condemnation from Tokyo.

    After winning the November presidential election, Joe Biden assured Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide that the Senkakus are covered under the US-Japan mutual defense treaty.

    Back in October, then-National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien announced that the US Coast Guard was deploying ships to the Western Pacific. It’s not clear how far west the cutters have sailed, but O’Brien cited Beijing as the reason for the deployment, so there’s a chance the US Coast Guard can cross paths with China’s coast guard.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 19:30

  • Amazon Demands In-Person Union Vote After Arguing Mail-In Ballots 'Raise Risk Of Fraud'
    Amazon Demands In-Person Union Vote After Arguing Mail-In Ballots ‘Raise Risk Of Fraud’

    Surprise! Mail-in ballots raise the risk of fraud – according to Amazon.

    In a Thursday filing with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), the Seattle-based online retail giant formally requested that a group of Alabama warehouse trying to form a union be required to vote in person, rather than by mail, according to Bloomberg. The company also requested a postponement of the vote so the NLRB can reconsider its earlier ruling which gives workers the next two months to vote by mail.

    A group of workers at Amazon’s Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse filed paperwork in November for an election to decide whether to be represented by the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, a rare step for workers at a company whose U.S. workforce isn’t unionized. The NLRB, which oversees union votes, earlier this month said the vote would be conducted by mail, citing standards set up during the pandemic to keep workers and staffers safe. –Bloomberg

    Amazon objected to the NLRB’s decision – saying they had ‘unfairly dismissed the company’s argument’ that its facility is safer than the surrounding Jefferson County, which hit a 20% COVID-19 positive test rate earlier this month. The company argues that in-person voting would have “fully minimized any risk of transmission,” and that the NLRB’s decision on mail-in votes was “based on speculation and conjecture, and without ever balancing the purported risk of virus spread against the public policy that ‘strongly favors’ allowing employees to vote in person.”

    The world’s largest online retailer said that a mail election raised the risk of fraud and the coercion of workers. It also said the process would depress turnout, arguing that as many as 29% of its more than 5,800 employees eligible to vote wouldn’t do so or would return incorrectly completed ballots. –Bloomberg

     The solution, according to Amazon? Hold the election in a heated tent in the facility’s parking lot in conjunction with software designed to ensure social distancing. The NLRB says conditions are too dangerous for in-person voting, and that acquiescing to Amazon’s demands might give workers the impression that government employees conducting the vote might be receiving inappropriate benefits from the company.

    “The most important factors in my decision are the safety of all election participants and the enfranchisement of all voters,” wrote the NLRB’s acting regional director in the Board’s decision, adding “Both of these factors weigh in favor of a mail ballot election.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 19:00

  • California Refuses To Disclose COVID-19 Data Used To Drive Lockdowns
    California Refuses To Disclose COVID-19 Data Used To Drive Lockdowns

    California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) promised months ago that the state’s COVID-19 policy decisions would be driven by transparent data that would be shared with the public.

    Now, his administration is refusing to disclose key information used to determine when lockdown orders are implemented or rescinded – and has denied a public records request filed with the California Health and Human Services (CHHS) Agency on May 28 by the Center for American Liberty (CAL) seeking both the data and science behind the state’s lockdown decisions, according to Fox News.

    State health officials now say they rely on a ‘very complex set of measurements that would confuse and potentially mislead the public,’ AP reports.

    In short, California says you’re too stupid to understand their rationale for mandating thousands of businesses into financial ruin through what appear to be arbitrary and unscientific decisions. To wit, at least two California judges have struck down the state’s draconian mandates over lack of scientific evidence to support lockdowns and restaurant restrictions.

    Not only that, according to SFGATE, there’s growing speculation that California’s ban on outdoor dining may have contributed to the state’s COVID-19 surge. Not the best of optics as as a GOP effort to recall Newsom continues to gain momentum.

    According to CAL executive director Mark Trammel, the Golden State won’t answer why, for example, they won’t answer why indoor religious services are strictly forbidden while other venues where people gather are just fine.

    “If it’s safe enough to go to a marijuana dispensary or Macy’s or Costco that same standard should apply to parishioners in our congregation they should be able to sep in pews and wear a mask,” Trammel told Fox News in a recent interview.

    Dr. Lee Riley, chairman of UC Berkeley’s School of Public Health infectious disease division thinks the state’s lack of transparency is troubling.

    “There is more uncertainty created by NOT releasing the data that only the state has access to,” he told the Associated Press in an email.

    More via AP:

    Newsom, a Democrat, imposed the nation’s first statewide shutdown in March. His administration developed reopening plans that included benchmarks for virus data such as per capita infection rates that counties needed to meet to relax restrictions.

    It released data models state officials use to project whether infections, hospitalizations and deaths are likely to rise or fall.

    As cases surged after Thanksgiving, Newsom tore up his playbook. Rather than a county-by-county approach, he created five regions and established a single measurement — ICU capacity — as the determination for whether a region was placed under a stay-at-home order.

    In short order, four regions — about 98% of the state’s population — were under the restrictions after their capacity fell below the 15% threshold. A map updated daily tracks each region’s capacity.

    At the start of last week, no regions appeared likely to have the stay-at-home order lifted soon because their capacity was well below 15%. But within a day, the state announced it was lifting the order for the 13-county Greater Sacramento area.

    Suddenly, outdoor dining and worship services were OK again, hair and nail salons and other businesses could reopen, and retailers were allowed more shoppers inside.

    Local officials and businesses were caught off guard. State officials did not describe their reasoning other than to say it was based on a projection for ICU capacity.

    State health officials relied on a complex formula to project that while the Sacramento region’s intensive care capacity was below 10%, it would climb above 15% within four weeks. On Friday, it was 9%, roughly the same as when the order was lifted.

    What happened to the 15%? What was that all about?” asked Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist and infectious-diseases control expert at University of California, San Francisco. “I was surprised. I assume they know something I don’t know.

    Trying to explain the quagmire, CA Health and Human Services Agency spokeswoman Kate Folmar said (with a straight face?) that officials are committed to transparency – and that projected ICU capacity is based on several variables – including available beds and staffing that can change regularly.

    These fluid, on-the-ground conditions cannot be boiled down to a single data point — and to do so would mislead and create greater uncertainty for Californians,” she said.

    According to First Amendment Coalition Executive Director David Snyder, the state’s lack of disclosure is disturbing. 

    “The state is wielding extraordinary power these days — power to close businesses, to directly impact people’s livelihoods and even lives — and so it owes it to Californians to disclose how and why it makes those decisions,” he said, adding that secrecy “is exactly the wrong approach here and will only breed further mistrust, confusion and contempt for the crucial role of government in bringing us out of this crisis.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 18:45

  • Confessions Of A Deprogrammed Trump Supporter
    Confessions Of A Deprogrammed Trump Supporter

    Authored (satirically) by Matthew Ehret via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    As many people are aware, CNN recently aired a wonderful interview by former Moonie-turned-cult-deprogrammer Steve Hassan giving advice to Americans wishing to deprogram their MAGA-hat wearing loved ones, now that the age of Trump is coming to an end.

    I was fortunate enough to have read Hassan’s book and had the loving scrub-brush of truth wash my brain of all of its formerly pro-Trump sympathies and can honestly say that I am most certainly better off for having left those old delusions in the past.

    For one thing, I used to enjoy my right to free speech… but thanks to the terrible events of January 6, 2021 that left 3 people dead, horned Q supporters doing photo ops for media, pro-Trump rioters let into the capitol building by guards, and busloads of conspicuous violent figures whom some say were “provocateurs” (whatever that means), I have come to realize that I was all wrong. Free speech is actually very dangerous. Words we took for granted like “patriot”, “nationalism”, or “vote fraud” are actually very racist and using them is a sure fire sign that you might be a domestic terrorist. At any rate, using them should at least be enough to get someone banned from social media and put under surveillance.

    For a long time, I thought that record numbers of Black and Hispanic voters supporting Trump in 2020 meant that Trump was not racist, but I now realize that these poor folks just suffered from “multiracial whiteness”.

    I thought that questioning voting machines that had been caught red handed manipulating elections across the world was patriotic and that somehow some conglomeration of Big Tech, the media, intelligence agencies and a thing called “deep state” were colluding to create a color revolution in the USA… but I now realize that I was actually supporting conspiracy theories and thus violence and thus domestic terrorism.

    I was so far gone that my pre-deprogrammed self was actually persuaded in the crazy idea that depopulation agendas hid behind the cover of a “Great Reset agenda”, concocted by a shadowy elite of sociopathic oligarchs. I have now learned that this was either a silly conspiracy theory, the result of my own delusions or if it was true, then I can at least say with certainty that it is all for my own good.

    The truth that I have now come to discover, is that free speech has just gone too far.

    This practice has reached its limits, and Twitter’s legal executive Vijaya Gadde is absolutely right. Social Media should do its civic duty and extend its censorship of “dangerous thoughts” to citizens and political officials outside of the USA in order to protect the world from itself.

    If other world leaders are worried about this new truth, then they should seriously do some soul searching and learn to think differently.

    The old me is long gone, and now all I can say is “thank god” Joe Biden has found himself in the position of leader of the free world at this historic moment of change.

    For awhile it was looking like Donald Trump would actually stop forever wars, and untie the U.S. military’s involvement from the CIA. That white supremacist actually came precariously close to destroying the foundations of globalization that many enlightened billionaires had put decades of energy into organizing- first destroying Obama’s Transpacific Partnership, then the Paris Climate Accords and THEN he had the nerve to scrap NAFTA itself by giving nation states a say in economic affairs!

    He even committed the sin of criticizing NATO itself- the very foundation of western collective security from the obvious threats of Russia and China!

    He called for insane things like “bringing back manufacturing to the USA”, “restoring protectionism”, and “making space exploration and arctic development a priority for the nation” and everyone knows that this is all so 1963.

    But now the “disturbance” is over, and the age of Biden has arrived!

    Joe Biden is a man who understands what liberal values and the “rules-based order” are really about.

    He was wise enough to get onto the unipolar bandwagon before it was popular by drafting the 1994 surveillance bill that John Ashcroft later used verbatim for the Patriot Act after 9/11.

    He was smart enough to know that Wall Street couldn’t lead America into the 21st century as long as Glass-Steagall was in place and voted for its repeal in 1999.

    He was one of the loudest supporters of NAFTA which helped reduce carbon emissions drastically by exporting dirty industrial jobs oversees where they should be.

    He also gave the Credit Card companies the political support they needed to stop citizens from abusing their generosity which went a long way to help Americans build character and take responsibility for their short sighted consumer decisions.

    After 9/11, Biden also brilliantly supported the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq (who may not have had anything to do with 9/11 but at least showed the terrorists who’s boss).

    Unlike those cultish Trumping fascists, Biden was courageous enough to proclaim even before the horrible insurrectionary riots of January 6th, that a new Patriot Act/Domestic Terror Bill would be needed to purge the republic of dangerous terrorism and the insidious thought crimes which spread doubt in honest elections, and distrust in the benevolent political structures leading the western world. Thinking people know, that thought does sometimes cause action… and if we want to truly remedy wrong actions like the riots of January 6th, or dangerous COVID-denialism, then we should most certainly take the battle to the realm of the mind.

    The brilliant Steve Hassan even recognized this reality in his CNN interview when he said that “the bottom line is all of America needs deprogramming because we’ve all been negatively influenced by Donald Trump.”

    Sure, some people think that the 46 deaths and 32 riots caused by Antifa and BLM over the past six months might qualify as domestic terrorism, but that’s only because they are infected with racist wrong think and don’t realize that these groups were just fighting against fascism and racism.

    Certainly, the first 100 days after Biden’s inauguration will be inspired.

    Already, Biden has made commitments to sign the USA back onto the legally binding Paris Climate Accords to help us win the war against climate, and has shown the good sense to reverse Trump’s disastrous decision to break the anti-China TPP in 2016. Biden always said he would renegotiate the TPP in order “to hold China accountable”, and everyone knows Trump’s selfish decision only helped China by freeing up its neighbors to work together on the BRI. If only Trump hadn’t killed TPP, then the 14 nation strong Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership which China just finalized would never have happened.

    Most importantly, our benevolent overlords who meet at Davos every year are happy once more and have even kicked off Biden’s inauguration with a special celebration entitled “the Davos Agenda” running from January 25-29. According to the WEF, this event will “mark the launch of the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset Initiative and begin the preparation of the Special Annual Meeting in the spring. Each day will focus on one of the five domains of the Great Reset Initiative.”

    The USA’s new Special Envoy on Climate, John Kerry, captured the excitement of this wonderful moment perfectly when he said:

    “The notion of a reset is more important than ever before… we’re at the dawn of an extremely exciting time.”

    According to the Great Reset architects, this is definitely the right idea.

    WEF President Klaus Schwab has taught us that the “age of owning things” is so passe, and we know that this obsolete relic of capitalism isn’t compatible in our new age of global peace and brotherhood.

    Ownership of “things” just makes us selfish and forget about the real purpose of life.. which is really about sacrifice. Establishing new supranational organizations to manage the levers of consumption and production according to evidence-based standards and scientific realities of carrying capacity is the only remedy to the evils of populism and being ignorant to this reality doesn’t lessen the fact that boards of experts who are smarter than you say that it is so.

    According to the WEF’s Great Reset website global CO2 output collapsed by over 7% during the 12 months of global COVID-19 shutdowns… which means the COVID-19 is more of a blessing than many dim witted selfish nationalists who like owning things realize.

    So what if the world population will contract under the shutdown of the world economy under COVID lockdowns? And so what if we lose our capacity to support industrial civilization through the imposition of global green energy grid?

    Didn’t the late great Maurice Strong (who was WEF Executive Director and father of the Great Reset), ask the question in 1991:

    “What if a small group of world leaders were to conclude that the principal risk to the Earth comes from the actions of the rich countries? And if the world is to survive, those rich countries would have to sign an agreement reducing their impact on the environment. Will they do it? The group’s conclusion is ‘no’. The rich countries won’t do it. They won’t change. So, in order to save the planet, the group decides: Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”

    So get ready for an exciting time in history, and hopefully China finally learns that the new world order is Unipolar – with a big green hug for all well behaved leaders who get rid of such silly ideas as “nationalism”, “industrial progress” or “ending poverty through development” which dangerous concepts like the Belt and Road Initiative threaten to unleash.

    Most importantly, China has to really deprogram itself from her belief that Russia is a worthwhile partner in the 21st century.

    Xi made a good decision to attend this month’s Great Reset conference and both he and Modi would do well to abandon dirty fossil fuels, their support of nuclear energy development or space mining in order to adapt their realities to the computer models which have been telling us how to hitch our destinies to a world of entropy and diminishing returns.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 18:35

  • "6 Months For A Regime Change": Why One Strategist Believes The Market Will Crash In The Second Half Of 2021
    “6 Months For A Regime Change”: Why One Strategist Believes The Market Will Crash In The Second Half Of 2021

    By now it is clear to everyone that: i) we are living in an “epic” market bubble (as defined by Jeremy Grantham, who also see s “spectacular” crash coming), and ii) one which is made all that more acute by a historic level of euphoria (according to Citi, Goldman and BofA), with Citi’s euphoria sentiment indicator at the euphoria-est stage in history as the latest Panic/Euphoria model shows

    Ok, fine, the market is now more insane than it has ever been and the result are Volkswagen-esque short-squeeze explosions like the one we just saw in Gamestop, which made the Big Short (Squeeze) Michael Burry even richer.

    But while everyone knows this is a bubble of unprecedented euphoria proportions, what everyone wants to know is how – and more importantly when – it will end.

    Just yesterday we got two attempts to answer that question, the first from Jeremy Grantham, who told Bloomberg that he sees a “spectacular” crash in “the next few months.” Another, less alarmist prediction, came from BofA CIO Michael Hartnett, who while not expecting anything “spectacular”, predicted a sharp drawdown in risk as soon as this quarter, as this simply has to happen to reduce the record froth in this “late-stage speculative blow-off” and allow the normal move higher to resume.

    Adding to the pile up, in his latest Weekly Kickstart note even the ever-cheerful Goldman head equity strategist, David Kostin, admits that a part of the market that appears frothy “and may pose a broader risk is extremely high-growth, high-multiple stocks.” As the Goldman strategist points out, “like negative earners and penny stocks, trading volumes and share prices of stocks with EV/sales multiples over 20x have soared.”

    However, these firms are much larger, collectively accounting for 23% of trading volumes during the past month (96thpercentile since 1985) and 9% of market cap. Some of this appreciation is appropriate given record low interest rates. Firms with EV/sales ratios greater than 20x accounted for 2% of trading volumes in 2019. That share rose to 10% in August 2020 as interest rates plunged. However, their share of volumes has doubled again during the most recent market rally.

    Another way of showing this: the Fed’s injections of trillions have made it so investors have run out of new trash to buy, so they are piling into the same old trash to the point where the riskiest assets are also the most attractive ones.

    The chart above should come as no surprise to our regular readers: after all for the past decade we have said that we are now in a (non) “market” where fundamentals and logic don’t matter, so instead you have armies of retail daytraders rushing into the most shorted names – something we said was the best trading strategy as far back as 2013 – and also everyone turning into a momentum trader, and just buying anything that goes up (and selling anything that doesn’t). The FT had an amusing take on that:

    … the stock market has totally lost its marbles, and in a bid to make as much money in as little time as possible has decided to become one giant momentum trade which consumes ever more of itself as it feeds itself.

    Incidentally, those who wonder what may be the “next Gamestop” where an violent short squeeze sends the stocks soaring, yesterday we showed a handful of companies where the short interest as a % of float is over 50% and are ripe to explode higher.

    Source

    Now, these staggering meltups across stocks, sectors and the broader market, are starting to be a problem for Wall Street, whose analysts are once again badly behind the curve. Take Bank of America, which has a 2021 year end target of 3,800, or below the S&P’s Friday close. Or Wells Fargo which is at 3,850 and also below the recent all time high in the S&P, which was reached before January was even over.

    So are strategists rushing to lift their price targets as they so always do when they chase prices and try to justify their recos to clients? Some – like Goldman, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are. Others, however, like Wells Fargo head strategist Chris Harvey refuses to do so and is keeping his S&P target of 3,850. Speaking with Bloomberg’s “What Goes Up” podcast, he discussed why he’s not ready to throw in the towel on his conservative target. He also discussed how Tesla Inc.’s entrance into the S&P 500 reminds him of when AOL joined the benchmark index more than 20 years ago, and why he sees it as a potential signal of the end of “growth-at-any-price” (not to be confused with GARP) type of investing,

    Here are the highlights from his interview starting with why he’s sticking with his S&P 500 target:

    “We knew that this is a very conservative target and we bias ourselves on the conservative side. Last year, we also had a lower target than the marketplace. And one of the things that was different from us is we had a lot of confidence in it. We never cut our price target. And when things got really dicey, we found real value. We felt comfortable in and around the market lows, telling people to put money to work. Also at this time last year, we ran into a similar situation where people were saying, ‘Hey Chris, are you going to raise your price target? Or what are you going to do?’ We said no. And right now the answer is no.”

    “We have very conservative earnings estimates. Part of that is because we don’t know what the tax regime is going to look like. It’s a long year and we’ll see, and we have no problems raising our targets or changing when the information changes. What we really don’t want to do is to cut our target because we don’t want to tell people there’s value there when there really isn’t. And so we tend to err on the more conservative side.”

    On why investment opportunities based on stimulus may be short-lived:

    “To get to the tax situation: One of the reasons why we see the opportunity being much shorter is it appears to be a rent, not own, type situation. We’re super cheap, right? And frugal as the day is long. We don’t want to stick around for the bill. You’re going to have to pay that bill. You’re going to have to do that before the midterm elections. So that’s saying somewhere in the second half of this year, or the beginning of next year. It’s hard to say granularly what’s going to occur, but we know that we’ve spent a lot of money and sooner or later we do have to pay the bill and we think it’s coming. And so, unlike a lot of my peers, I’m a little bit worried about that because that’s not going to be a whole lot of fun.”

    Why Tesla gives him an AOL flashback:

    “The Spidey sense is starting to tingle, right? I remember 1998, 1999 and I remember what was happening. You had a lot of speculation, you had a lot of retail investors getting involved. And we have a lot of funny things going on now. But what was amazing to me is AOL at the time was a game changer. It was an amazing technology. The stock had an incredible run, a run I really hadn’t seen before.”

    “And it was added to the S&P late in the year at a very large market cap, or very large weighting. That to me was the beginning of the end, right? ‘99 was a fantastic year for stocks, but after ‘99, many of your tech companies and many of your growth companies lost 50% to 100% of their value. Now you have another game-changing technology in Tesla. And you have a stock that has performed amazingly well. And it’s going into the S&P 500 when? December last year. At a very large weight or market cap. This is signaling that we’re close to the end of the ‘growth-at-any-price’ type investment strategy. It’s not a call-out on a particular stock, but what it shows you is that we’ve reached that level.”

    “And so back in the late ‘90s, it took 12 months for that, for the regime change to occur. And what I’m telling clients now is in 2020, everything is accelerated, right? Everything that I thought was going to happen more or less occurred, but just in a very compressed time period. So if it took 12 months in the late ‘90s, we think it probably takes six months now for that regime change really to occur.”

    Finally, on the potential “pain trade” for 2021:

    “Funny enough, I think the big pain trade for a lot of people on the buy side is a recovery or a strong recovery, because many people haven’t traded in a post-recessionary environment. Many people have been trading in a low-growth or recessionary environment. And when growth is abundant, different things happen. The market rewards value and small caps and cyclicals and that could cause a lot of pain for much of the buy side, because they’re so steeped in that growth trade.”

    There is one more reason why the second half of 2021 will be very painful. As we first explained one month ago, the Chinese credit impulse has just peaked and is now set for a period of freefall as China scrambles to contain its recent lending spree, a move which will send its first derivative, the impulse, reeling and will have profoundly adverse impacts not only on Nominal GDP…

    … but virtually every other asset class too.

    Source

    To listen to the complete podcast with Harvey, click here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 18:26

  • DoorDash Accused Of Steering Customers Away From Nonparticipating Restaurants
    DoorDash Accused Of Steering Customers Away From Nonparticipating Restaurants

    By Brian Straight of FreightWaves

    Does DoorDash set up fake landing pages for restaurants in an effort to steer customers to preferred restaurants? That is the basis of a potential class action lawsuit filed by Lona’s Lil Eats, a St. Louis Asian fusion restaurant.

    The suit, originally filed in September in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California, where DoorDash is based, alleges DoorDash posted a Lona’s landing page on its app, even though the restaurant had no existing relationship with the delivery service. Lona’s further alleges that when a customer clicked the landing page, the customer was able to see a complete menu and proceed as if an order could be placed. In the end, though, the customer was shown one of two messages: that Lona’s was closed or that it was “too far away” for delivery, even when the customer was standing within 200 feet of the location, the suit alleges.

    Lona’s lawyers argue that DoorDash, which takes up to a 30% commission on each order, is impacting Lona’s business and other potential members of the class.

    “Accordingly, DoorDash is publishing false and deceptive information about the ability to get food from Lona’s as a means of punishing it for not partnering with it, and/or pressuring it to partner with it and to redirect would-be Lona’s business to its partner restaurants,” the suit alleges. “Defendant’s conduct has an obvious, significant and unfair impact upon the competitive landscape within the restaurant industry and results in damage to plaintiff and members of the class.”

    On Monday, U.S. Magistrate Judge Thomas Hixson for the San Francisco-based District Court denied DoorDash’s motion to dismiss, allowing the suit to move forward. The judge has ordered DoorDash to file its answer to the amended complaint within 14 days.

    In the original complaint, Lona’s attorneys said that DoorDash engaged in “unfair, deceptive and anticompetitive practice regarding the manner in which it displays information about businesses with whom it does not have an agreement to provide service.” It further alleged that DoorDash “has engaged in a pattern of behavior whereby customers are deceptively steered away from restaurants with whom DoorDash does not have a relationship by DoorDash’s practice of affirmatively representing to consumers that those restaurants are closed, cannot deliver to them or are not accepting orders at the time.”

    The attorneys – led by Francis J. Flynn Jr. of the Law Office of Francis J. Flynn Jr. – are asking for a jury trial with class action status for similarly impacted businesses, seeking damages and injunctive relief for false advertising in violation of the Lanham Act, of California’s False Advertising law (FAL) and of California’s unfair competition law (UCL).

    “DoorDash takes advantage of the existing market demand for Lona’s and other restaurants to drive traffic to its site, at which time it will redirect customers to other partner restaurants by suggesting that Lona’s is not an option,” the suit alleges.

    DoorDash argued that Lona’s lacked standing and failed to offer “specificity as required by Rule 9(b)” and that its Lanham Act claim is false.

    The court rejected each of these arguments.

    “We’re proud of the role DoorDash plays in helping restaurants connect with new customers and generate additional revenue, and remain committed to demonstrating the value of the DoorDash platform and the variety of options available to support the merchant community,” a DoorDash spokesperson said in an emailed statement to FreightWaves.

    A request for comment from Flynn’s law office had not been returned as of publishing time.

    In arguing that Lona’s did not have standing, DoorDash said that “to have standing under the FAL, [Lona’s] must allege that it suffered an injury due to its own actual and reasonable reliance on the purported misleading statements.”

    The additional claims were similarly dismissed by the court. The court also acknowledged that while one part of Lona’s allegations have been remedied – the removal of the listing saying the restaurant was closed – the notice that the restaurant was out of delivery range persisted for more than a month after the original complaint was made.

    The food delivery app went public in early December, raising $3.37 billion on the offering of 33 million shares at $102 per share. It spiked 78% in its first day of trading, closing at a market value of $68 billion. In midmorning trading Thursday, the stock was at $186.09.

    In its IPO filing, DoorDash reported revenue of $1.92 billion for the first nine months of 2020, more than triple that of the same period a year earlier, and a profit of $23 million in the second quarter of 2020.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 17:45

  • "Does Joe Biden Hate Black Teenagers?" Rand Paul Routs $15 Minimum Wage Miasma
    “Does Joe Biden Hate Black Teenagers?” Rand Paul Routs $15 Minimum Wage Miasma

    “‘Why does Joe Biden hate Black teenagers?’ should be the question. Why does Joe Biden want to destroy all of these jobs?”

    During an interview with Fox host Sean Hannity, GOP Senator Rand Paul pummeled the Biden administration’s decision to push for a minimum wage increase that would put 4 million people out of work.

    “The people who lose their jobs first when you hike up the minimum wage are Black teenagers,” Paul said.

    And despite the ramblings of various left-ist economists, claiming this or that study shows no impact from such a drastic minimum wage hike…

    …common sense (and historical experience) for anyone who has ever run an actual business is that raising costs on the lowest-skilled workers in your organization will ripple all the way up, forcing either higher prices to the end-user (eradicating the ‘living wage’ improvement) and or forcing layoffs as management hold margins and reduce costs (the least-skilled first).

    And if all that sounds very racist, the following chart shows that Senator Paul is, of course, correct…

    Source: @McClellanOsc

    That’s not an “alternative” fact, that’s the awkward reality of ‘unintended consequences’ from nanny-state intervention write large for the last 70 years.

    Need some more ‘facts’?

    According to a recent nonpartisan analysis by the Congressional Budget Office, President Biden’s effort to raise the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 per hour is estimated to kill as many as 3.7 million jobs

    Based on the CBO’s median estimate,1.3 million workers who would otherwise be employed would be jobless in an average week in 2025, an 0.8% reduction. However, the CBO also noted that a federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would increase the wages of 17 million workers in an average week in 2025.

    While the $15 federal minimum wage would boost workers’ earnings, the CBO says that some of the higher earnings would be offset by higher rates of joblessness.

    Paul also blasted Biden for canceling the Keystone XL oil pipeline:

    “It’s kind of a strange beginning to an administration,” Paul said.

    “You’re going to put your best foot forward and the first thing you say is, ‘This is how I’m going to kill jobs’ … ‘I’m going to kill thousands of jobs of the Keystone pipeline with ending it.'”

    Watch the full interview below:

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 17:20

  • Pentagon Intelligence Purchased Troves Of Warrantless Phone Location Data On Americans
    Pentagon Intelligence Purchased Troves Of Warrantless Phone Location Data On Americans

    Authored by Brett Wilkins via CommonDreams.org,

    Digital rights advocates reacted with alarm to a report published Friday detailing how Defense Intelligence Agency analysts in recent years bought databases of US smartphone location data without first obtaining warrants

    The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is part of the Department of Defense and is tasked with informing military and civilian policymakers about the activities and intentions of foreign governments and nonstate actors. 

    File image: Alamy/Wired

    The new revelation, first reported by the New York Times, initially came in the form of DIA responses to questions from Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) regarding the agency’s warrantless purchase of commercial location data generated by phones both inside and outside of the United States. 

    Wyden asked the DIA to clarify its interpretation of Carpenter v. United States, a 2018 U.S. Supreme Court decision barring law enforcement agencies from requesting personal location information from a cellphone company without first obtaining a search warrant from a judge.

    “DIA does not construe the Carpenter decision to require a judicial warrant endorsing purchase or use of commercially-available data for intelligence purposes,” the agency replied, implicitly acknowledging its exploitation of an apparent loophole in the case that DIA believes permits its warrantless acquisition of location data from third-party brokers

    Furthermore, Wyden asked whether DIA operatives differentiated between phone location data obtained inside the U.S. and abroad. 

    “DIA’s data provider does not supply separate streams of U.S. and foreign location data,” the agency explained, “and so DIA processes the location data as it arrives to identify U.S. location data points, which it segregates in a separate database.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “DIA personnel can only query this database of U.S. location data when authorized by the DIA chief of staff and DIA’s office of general counsel,” it added. “Permission to query DIA’s database of commercially acquired US device location data has been granted five times in the past two-and-a-half years, when DIA first started buying this source of data.” 

    Last September it was revealed that the US military was purchasing device location data from apps—including a Muslim prayer app used by tens of millions of people around the world—and using it for counterterrorism purposes. 

    “The military industrial complex and the surveillance state have always had a cozy relationship with tech,” Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) said at the time. “Buying bulk data in order to profile Muslims is par for the course for them—and is absolutely sickening. It should be illegal!”

    To that end, the ACLU in December filed a lawsuit to determine how and why federal agencies are buying access to bulk databases of Americans’ cellphone location information and skirting  the Fourth Amendment’s warrant requirement.

    And as The Hill reported Friday, Wyden plans to introduce legislation—the Fourth Amendment Is Not for Sale Act—which would prohibit government agencies from buying personal information from data brokers

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “I think we’ve really reached the point where you have so much data floating around that governments can essentially buy their way around the Fourth Amendment,” Wyden lamented last November. 

    In a Senate speech on Wednesday, Wyden condemned the status quo “in which the government, instead of getting an order, just goes out and purchases the private records of Americans from these sleazy and unregulated commercial data brokers who are simply above the law.”

    Digital and pivacy rights advocates agree. 

    “The government cannot simply buy our private data in order to bypass bedrock constitutional protections,” senior ACLU staff attorney Ashley Gorski told The Hill. “Congress must end this lawless practice and require the government to get a warrant for our location data, regardless of its source.”

    News of the DIA warrantless data acquisition came a day after Avril Haines was sworn in as President Joe Biden’s director of national intelligence. Haines will oversee the nation’s 18 intelligence agencies, including the DIA.

    Wyden supports Haines’ appointment, in part due to what he called her “commitments related to transparency issues.” A broad range of progressive groups, however, strongly opposed her nomination. 

    During her Senate confirmation hearing earlier this week, Wyden asked Haines about government abuse of commercially available location data.

    “I would seek to try to publicize, essentially, a framework that helps people understand the circumstances under which we do that and the legal basis that we do that under,” she replied. “I think that’s part of what’s critical to promoting transparency generally so that people have an understanding of the guidelines under which the intelligence community operates.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 16:55

  • Taiwan Reports 13 Incursions By Chinese Air Force In One Day
    Taiwan Reports 13 Incursions By Chinese Air Force In One Day

    During the final months of the Trump administration Chinese PLA military exercises near Taiwan grew as part of the tit-for-tat escalation of Washington moves in support of the self-declared Republic. 

    Lately Chinese jets have breached Taiwan’s claimed airspace as part of ongoing ‘show of force’ maneuvers in the contested area. But on Saturday, a mere few days following President Joe Biden’s entry into the White House, China’s military undertook one of its biggest flyovers yet.

    Via AP

    According to local press “Taiwan recorded no fewer than 13 incursions by Chinese military planes into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day Saturday (Jan. 23), the most of any such incidents within one day so far this year.” As Reuters adds, Eight Chinese bomber planes and four fighter jets entered the southwestern corner of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on Saturday, and Taiwan’s air force deployed missiles to ‘monitor’ the incursion, the island’s Defense Ministry said.” Additionally, a Chinese Y-8 anti-submatine aircraft also entered Taiwan’s ADIZ.

    Taiwan reportedly scrambled its American-supplied fighter jets to “warn off” the Chinese formation.

    “Airborne alert sorties had been tasked, radio warnings issued and air defense missile systems deployed to monitor the activity,” a Taiwan military statement said.

    Chinese H-6K strategic bomber aircraft, via Reuters

    PLA military flyovers of contested territory around the island have now become an almost daily occurrence, but as Reuters points out:

    However they have generally consisted of just one or two reconnaissance aircraft.

    The presence of so many Chinese combat aircraft on this mission – Taiwan said it was made up of eight nuclear-capable H-6K bombers and four J-16 fighter jets – is unusual.

    In this instance it was said to be in the vicinity over the contested waters of the Paracel islands.

    The new White House National Security Council has this week vowed that America’s commitment to Taiwan would remain “rock-solid”. But it remains to be seen if Biden keeps up the provocative level of Trump’s weapons sales to Taiwan, which reached a historic peak in the latter part of 2020.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 16:30

  • Not The Onion – Gender-Neutral Playing Cards?
    Not The Onion – Gender-Neutral Playing Cards?

    Authored by Ned Barnett via AmericanThinker.com,

    The media has been buzzing with this news about the young forensic psychologist from Oegstgeest, Netherlands and her amazing creation.  A quick Google review of this story found more than 100 news stories about this innovation – not just (or even primarily) in fringe online media outlets – but in mainstream media from the Reuters to the New York Post.

    “If we have this hierarchy that the king is worth more than the queen,” Ms. Mellink said in a press interview, “then this subtle inequality influences people in their daily life (sic) because it’s just another way of saying ‘hey, you’re less important.’  Even subtle inequalities like this do play a big role.”

    Toxic masculinity?

    Despite their hearts being in the right place on the left side of their chests, both Ms. Mellink and the fawning media who’ve been both reporters and cheerleaders for this long-overdue innovation have managed to miss the main point. 

    Playing cards – and indeed most, if not all – games, are politically incorrect, and for a variety of reasons. 

    Consider, for instance, a deck of cards – even Ms. Mellink’s gender-neutral deck of cards.  They have four suits – Hearts, Diamonds, Clubs and Spades – as well as two colors – Red and Black.  “Red,” obviously, is a not-so-subtle allusion calling to mind the Red States, where – in the most recent two Presidential elections – white supremacists voted overwhelmingly for Trump.  “Black,” especially when connected to the name of one of the four suits in the card deck, is an obvious and historically-offensive racist reference to a pejorative label for black men.  This clearly racist sub-text is also present in the game of checkers, where Red and Black compete for power and dominance.

    Another major offender is the board game Scrabble. The fact that the game’s rules contain no restriction on the use of specific words ignores the risk of allowing players to use excluding terms. It is well within the rules to marginalize individuals or groups, and insult groups of disadvantaged or discriminated-against people.   Verbal micro-aggressions, such as the use of demeaning gender-specific pronouns, are freely permitted in the game.  Specifically, trigger words, hate speech and the cultural appropriation of words – all of which must be avoided at all cost – are freely permitted in Scrabble.  The game does nothing to prevent their use, nor does it encourage virtue signaling by players offended by their opponents’ use of hurtful and exclusionary words.  That signaling should be rewarded as a necessary part of the process of excluding hateful, hurtful words from the game.

    Monopoly – in some ways the worst offender – is symbolized by a cartoon caricature of a white male capitalist, an oligarch and almost certainly a Republican … a Trump Republican.  This raises some important questions, including, “Is Donald Trump consciously channeling the Monopoly icon, or is this merely a coincidence of cosmic proportions?”  Other questions include: “How does this paternalistic affirmation of the patriarchy makes right-thinking people feel while playing such a game?”  Or, “What does Monopoly’s embrace of rapacious exploitation of workers and tenants teach our children about life in a society dominated by unfettered capitalism?  Shades of Gordon Gekko …

    However, perhaps the most offensive game – as well as perhaps the oldest board game in human history, is chess. This game is also the most blatantly offensive of the lot.  The reason is obvious to even the color-specific visually-impaired around us.  Chess pieces are either white or black, and white ALWAYS goes first, while black ALWAYS goes second.  The racist message of chess is hardly obscure or subtle.  Players are told that white is always better than black.

    So, while Ms. Mellink has identified the risk of politically-incorrect games and gaming devices, she has barely scratched the surface.  If we want a “safe space” for games and gaming, we must take collective action to enforce decent, inoffensive standards on those games.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 16:05

  • A Large US Military Convoy Rolled Into Syria On 1st Day Of Biden Presidency
    A Large US Military Convoy Rolled Into Syria On 1st Day Of Biden Presidency

    Two separate reports from Middle East news sources at the end of this week strongly suggest that both Russia and the United States are building up their forces in war-torn Syria within the opening days of the Joe Biden administration.

    First, Syrian state media is alleging a major US build-up and reinforcements sent to “illegitimate bases in Hasakah countryside”. The report in Syria’s SANA details:

    “…that a convoy consisted of 40 trucks loaded with weapons and logistical materials, affiliated to the so-called international coalition have entered in Hasaka countryside via al-Walid illegitimate border crossing with north of Iraq, to reinforce illegitimate bases in the area.”

    Illustrative file image of US convoy in northeast Syria

    Damascus said further that tons of US heavy equipment was observed going toward building up US positions at Conoco oil and gas field: “Over the past few days, helicopters affiliated to the so-called international coalition have transported logistical equipment and heavy military vehicles to Conoco oil field in northeastern Deir Ezzor countryside, after turning it into military base to reinforce its presence and loot the Syrian resources,” SANA wrote further.

    This comes at a moment Biden’s Syria policy and direction is still largely a big unknown – though it remains that his cabinet looks to include foreign policy hawks – particularly many of the same officials responsible for Obama’s both overt and covert interventions in Libya and Syria upon the start of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’.

    For now President Biden is likely simply to continue Trump’s policy of keeping a contingent of American special forces troops stealing occupying Syria’s oil and gas fields.

    Meanwhile a separate story on the same day as the reported US convoy reinforcements says Russia too is busy building up its forces in an area near where Americans and Turkish patrols are occupying northeast Syria.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    According to Beirut-based Al Masdar News:

    The Russian Armed Forces sent more reinforcements and heavy military equipment to the Al-Qamishli Airport this week, as they strengthen their presence east of the Euphrates River.

    According to the latest reports from the Al-Hasakah Governorate, the Russian Armed Forces deployed more troops to the frontlines with the Turkish military and their allied militants near the key town of Tal Tamr.

    This is based on Russian military sources featuring footage of a Russian IL-76 cargo landing a Qamishli Airport which is the “second time in ten days that they have brought in more reinforcements and military equipment.”

    Russian military cargo plan landing in northern Syria on Thursday:

    Russia has also lately sent more ships to patrol off Syria’s Mediterranean coast, out of the naval base at Tartus.

    Likely this latest rush to ensure greater Russian ‘readiness’ is based on the “unknowns” represented by the presidential transition in Washington. However, there’s little doubt Biden will keep up the severe sanctions which are currently crushing what’s left of the Syrian economy, with civilians bearing the brunt of suffering.

    Israel also appears to be ramping up its airstrikes inside Syria, claiming to be targeting Iranian positions amid concerns Biden will be “soft” on the Islamic Republic and so-called Iranian influence in Syria and Lebanon.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/23/2021 – 16:04

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 23rd January 2021

  • Cult: Government Is Now The New Religion?
    Cult: Government Is Now The New Religion?

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    A new magazine cover of the Jacobin is striking a nerve after it appears that the magazine is saying the government is now god and our religion, to be worshipped. It sure begs the age-old question: who do you serve?

    If we are ever to be free, we have to remove our consent. That goes for those who worshipped Trump as the messiah as well (and there were plenty.)  We should have never allowed ourselves to see each other as slaves to the ruling class, submitting to democracy (which is mob rule) and letting others have power over anyone else for any reason. Our inability to take the moral high ground has led to us this point in history. Government is now your god. Like it or not.

    Describing Trump supporters as a cult has become a trope among his Democratic critics. Which seems ironic, considering how the very same crowd in the past four years tended to invest emotionally in whoever they hoped would end Trump’s presidency. Special Counsel Robert Muller probably received the lion’s share of the prayers, though figures like ex-FBI director James Comey or even Trump’s fixer-turned-critic Michael Cohen basked in some limelight. –RT

    Here’s the cover of the magazine in its entirety for you to have a look at:

    Biden’s larger-than-life, bare-chested figure is shown surrounded by ‘holy spirits’ of Twitter and ‘saints’. The latter include kneeling Democrat leaders in the US Congress, Dr. Anthony Fauci, fawning journalists, and manager-class devotees eagerly consuming the ‘holy scripture’ from what is probably the latest Barack Obama memoir. The former president himself is shown as a six-winged seraphim bracketed by the likewise angelic Hillary and Bill Clinton, with the trio gazing benignly from the heavens. A crowd of mask-wearing suburban laymen on Earth celebrates Biden’s ascension. A pair of Reaper drones complete the picture, providing a clear hint for the doubtful that the image should be taken with a grain of salt.-RT

    It is way past time to figure out that this is the plan.  One world government, worshipped under the one world religion where the very few control and enslave the many.  Trump obviously didn’t do anything he promised, such as drain the swamp, and people are still worshipping him as some sort of messiah as well.  Stop allowing others to rule over you and making exceptions if one has a different letter behind his name.

    Democracy is mob rule. If voting mattered, they wouldn’t let us do it. Government is slavery. Taxation is theft. Time to wake up and take the moral approach that no one should be a master and no one should be a slave regardless of whether it’s called “government” or not.

    Hopefully, this is the wake-up call people need and the push toward a liberated humanity, truly free from their chains.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 23:40

  • China Caught Importing 'Doctored' & Rebranded Venezuelan Oil To Evade US Sanctions
    China Caught Importing ‘Doctored’ & Rebranded Venezuelan Oil To Evade US Sanctions

    It’s no secret that Maduro’s Venezuela has long gone to extraordinary lengths to bust through the US oil export blockade and sanctions designed to choke the socialist country. This past summer, and in recent months, Iran emerged as Venezuela’s chief trading and sanctions-busing partner, with at one point US authorities seizing and later auctioning off over 1.1 million barrels of fuel taken from Iranian tankers bound for Venezuela.

    As we and other have noted before, methods often employed to evade sanctions involve Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, gaining the assistance of third party shell companies to change names and paperwork of vessels during export. “Ghosting” has also been a common tactic, which involves a tanker switching off its transponder in sensitive areas of a voyage to conceal its identity.

    A new investigative report in Bloomberg details another dodge method being employed, namely “doping” the oil being transported with chemical additives while doctoring the accompanying paperwork, so that it can be “sold as a wholly different crude without a trace of its Venezuelan roots.”

    Getty Images

    Much of this embargoed Venezuelan crude is ending up in China under different names and paperwork intended to conceal its origin, as the report details:

    Invoices and emails reviewed by Bloomberg show the lengths to which some traders will go to disguise the crude’s origin and get it to Asia, making Chinese refineries an essential lifeline for Venezuela’s battered oil industry. U.S. officials, of course, can’t ban Chinese or any international companies from buying Venezuelan oil. They can financially squeeze them, though, by prohibiting them from then doing any business with American companies. That is why such intricate steps are taken to disguise the origin of the crude.

    This appears to be based on a trove of leaked emails containing the communications of industry insiders.

    This likely represents the “tip of the iceberg,” the report underscores, while featuring examples like the following:

    In one email seen by Bloomberg, a Swissoil trader marketing “Singma” urged a counterpart to violate a standard industry practice by keeping the original loading paperwork off a tanker. “Putting original BL on board of a vessel is insane, do not do it,” the trader said, referring to bills of lading. “You do not understand the problem you are getting into.”

    In an email responding to questions, Swissoil’s attorney said, “Swissoil Trading SA is not marketing and has not marketed crude oil from Venezuela.”

    Bloomberg saw documents for at least 11.3 million barrels of Venezuelan oil that were sold by Swissoil and delivered to China last year under the guise of other names.

    It remains that on an official level China supposedly hasn’t imported Venezuelan crude in a year-and-a-half. 

    In one instance a Swissoil member tells an external company, “Gentlemen, this is the doping fee,” in reference to a mysterious over $200,000 fee that was billed. “I am sure we will need these guys in the future, please make sure they get paid promptly,” the email said.

    Likely this state of things is only to continue and will possibly grow given the new Biden administration appears to be content to keep Trump’s max pressure campaign targeting Maduro and Venezuela’s state oil revenue in place. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 23:20

  • Big Tech, Big Brother, & The End Of Free Speech
    Big Tech, Big Brother, & The End Of Free Speech

    Authored by Frank Miele via RealClearPolitics.com,

    In George Orwell’s “Nineteen Eighty-Four,” members of the Outer Party of Oceania engage in the Two Minutes Hate ritual against Emmanuel Goldstein, who is supposed to be the enemy of the people but may actually just be a fabricated symbol to distract the people from their real enemy — Big Brother.

    In Nancy Pelosi’s “Twenty Twenty-One,” members of the Democratic Party engage in the Two Hours Hate against Donald Trump, who is supposed to be the enemy of the people, but may actually just be a fabricated symbol to distract the people from their real enemy — Big Tech.

    Two hours of hate — er, debate — was held in the House of Representatives last Wednesday for the avowed purpose of removing a president of the United States. That’s all it took. Two hours. That should tell you everything you need to know about the state of democracy in our country.

    More time is routinely spent on picking wallpaper. But let’s face it, most families wouldn’t trust Congress to pick out wallpaper for their living room, so why should we trust these self-appointed moral arbiters to pick our president?

    Well, we don’t. Not all of us.

    Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a Republican representative from California, put it plainly in his 90-second speech when he said the “second annual impeachment” of Donald Trump “isn’t really about actual words spoken at a rally. No, this is all about the unbridled hatred of this president [by Democrats]. You use any extreme language and any process to oppose the core of what he has really fought for. You hate him because he is pro-life, the strongest ever. You hate him for fighting for the freedom of religion. … You hate him for Israel. You hate him for defending our borders. … You hate him for putting America first.”

    They certainly shouldn’t hate him — or impeach him — just for telling a rally crowd that “everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” But that’s what they did. In two hours.

    And before they ever got around to impeaching Trump, they de-platformed him. With stunning suddenness, Trump went from the most powerful man in the world to a cornered, desperate fugitive. Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Google — they all came for him. Most importantly, they came for us. Everyone who sided with the president, everyone who agreed with the president about the questions of election fraud, we are all now guilty by association, and Big Tech has turned its sights on all of us.

    “Are you now or have you ever been a member of the Communist Party?”

    Those were the words that terrified millions of Americans in the 1950s when Joe McCarthy and other senators tried to purge the United States of what they considered a subversive movement designed to overthrow the government.

    In that case, of course, it was conservative senators — both Democrat and Republican — who were trying to expose what they called a communist conspiracy. In their zeal to protect the nation, they trampled on the civil liberties of individual Americans and tried to strip them of their jobs, their reputations and in some cases their very freedom.

    What was the crime most of those Americans had committed? They had either attended a meeting of the Communist Party, donated money to the Communist Party or signed a petition on behalf of the Communist Party. In other words, they had exercised their First Amendment rights of speech and assembly. They had used their own minds and reached unpopular opinions. That was all it took for McCarthy to try to ruin their lives.

    Apparently the American left never forgot what was done to them, and now that they have achieved absolute power, it looks like they want revenge.

    In the lead-up to the impeachment vote, Rep. Jim McGovern of Massachusetts put Trump defender Jim Jordan “on trial” for the new crime of having a dissenting view on the 2020 presidential election. The question McGovern barked at Jordan in a congressional hearing last week could be repeated in job interviews for years to come:

    “Will you admit that Joe Biden won fair and square and that the election was not rigged or stolen?”

    Jordan avoided a direct answer, but of course he and millions of other people don’t believe that Biden won fair and square. In a free country, they could say so, but in Pelosi’s “Twenty Twenty-One,” you say so at your own risk. To begin with, you can lose your Twitter account or your Facebook account, but who’s to say that you won’t lose your bank account next? China has a “social credit” system that deprives citizens of certain rights if their score falls below a certain level of acceptability — meaning if they don’t follow the party line in their thinking and their public persona. You might lose your job. You might be denied a ticket on a train or a plane. The only recourse is to do what the party tells you to do — even if it means accepting that 2+2=5.

    Now, in modern America, we are precipitously close to duplicating the monolithic control of information that Orwell predicted in “Nineteen Eighty-Four” and that the Chinese Communist Party has perfected.

    In the last two weeks, we have seen the power of Big Tech unleashed mercilessly. With the complicit assistance of Big Media, the Silicon Valley oligarchs not only neutered President Trump as a political leader by taking away his bully pulpit but also effectively crushed dissent by demanding that only social media companies that censor unpopular opinions can have a platform on the Internet. Bye-bye, Parler. You can also make a reasonable case that Democrats in Congress would never have impeached President Trump from public office so hastily were they not goaded into action by Twitter and Facebook taking the first step of banning him from public life.

    In a sense, Big Tech has taken cyberbullying to its logical conclusion. When 13-year-olds are entrusted with cellphones and Snapchat accounts, they can use them to bring shame on innocent children and even destroy their lives. Often, this involves spreading false rumors about the person or discrediting them for something they espouse, like their religion, their political beliefs or their sexual identity.

    Tell me how this is different from what Twitter, Facebook and YouTube have done to Donald Trump and, by extension, the more than 74 million people who voted for him. This group of post-pubescent cyberbullies in Silicon Valley doesn’t like Donald Trump. They feel justified in calling him names like white supremacist and Nazi and racist. They don’t care whether it hurts him or not. They don’t care whether it is true or not. They are strangely enlivened by what they perceive as their ability to hurt him, to weaken him. Like the mob that they have attempted to link the president to, these bullies act in mindless concert, emboldened by each other to see who can strike the deeper blow, who can make the victim hurt more.

    And over what? Differences of opinion, for the most part. Strong border or no border? Mask or no mask? Globalism or Americanism? Carbon credits or fracking? Abortion or no abortion? And then the last straw — fair election or fraudulent election?

    These should be legitimate subjects for debate in a free society. But not anymore. Big Tech has banned debate about government policy on the coronavirus, and any discussion of election fraud is treated as if it were a crime. But wait? It’s only a crime to question the government in a totalitarian system, like that in communist China or Orwell’s fictional Oceania, right? In America, we have the right and obligation to question our government, don’t we? Because, if we don’t have that right any longer, then what are they afraid of? What are they hiding?

    Bottom line: At some point in some election, the allegations of election fraud have to be real. It can’t always just be the figment of some right-wing president’s imagination. And if we aren’t allowed to have free speech, then how do we fight back? If Big Tech and Big Government have their way, we don’t. Just keep your head down and your nose clean — and never ever question what you are told.

    Remember, 2+2=5.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 23:00

  • Biden To Propose 5-Year Extension On Last Major Nuke Treaty With Russia
    Biden To Propose 5-Year Extension On Last Major Nuke Treaty With Russia

    It was no secret that the Russians were waiting out the Trump administration, anticipating that Trump’s declared desire to pull out of the New START treaty which limits the number of strategic nuclear weapons maintained by the former Cold War rivals would be a moot point should Biden take the White House.

    During prior negotiations this past fall, Putin was willing to offer an extension on the landmark nuclear treaty of at least one year without any preconditions ahead of its February 2021 expiration. At the same time Biden on the campaign was on record as clearly indicated he’d be ready to agree to an unconditional 5-year extension.

    And now on day two of the Biden administration that’s just what the US side is proposing: an immediate five-year extension of New START, or New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

    DoD via AP

    “Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan planned to convey the extension proposal to Russia’s ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, on Thursday afternoon, said one official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a matter not yet publicly announced by the administration,” according to the Associated Press. “A second U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed the proposal but offered no details.”

    Amid Trump’s prior pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) as well as ‘Open Skies’ there was growing concern that a new Cold War style arms race would be unleashed between the US and Russia. To some degree it already has – given Russia’s advancing and very public hypersonic weapons program and testing of the past couple years. There’s also the Pentagon for the first time resuming testing of INF-banned ground-launched ballistic missiles as of late 2019 under Trump’s watch.

    Putin too voiced such a concern on multiple occasions. “It would be extremely tragic, if the treaty ceases to exist, without being replaced with another fundamental document of this kind,” he said in October 2020 comments. “For all these years, the New START worked, worked perfectly, performed its fundamental role of a limiter, curbing the arms race,” Putin had underscored at the time.

    Biden’s reported offer to extend New START another 5 years also comes as a relief to America’s NATO allies, as AP notes:

    The move, providing an early signal of Biden’s intent to pursue arms control, is almost certain to be welcomed both by Russia and key American allies. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday called on the United States and Russia to extend the treaty and to later broaden it.

    “We should not end up in a situation with no limitation on nuclear warheads, and New START will expire within days,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels. Stoltenberg underlined that “an extension of the New START is not the end, it’s the beginning of our efforts to further strengthen arms control.”

    However, it’s anything but a done deal, given the Biden team is preparing to impose “costs” on the Kremlin elsewhere:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In the past months Russia’s Defense Ministry appeared to have ramped up its ballistic and hypersonic missile tests – possibly as a “message” to Washington and as leverage toward pressuring Washington to not let New START unravel.

    “Russia is not interested in triggering an arms race or deploying missiles where there are none,” Putin had also said in recent years.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 22:40

  • Academic Study Finds Big-Tech Elites Are In Their "Own Class", Different To Rest Of Humanity
    Academic Study Finds Big-Tech Elites Are In Their “Own Class”, Different To Rest Of Humanity

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    An academic study carried out by researchers in the US and Germany has concluded that big-tech elites are completely different to all other people on the planet, and can be placed in their own class.

    “Our research contributes to closing a research gap in societies with rising inequalities,” note the authors of the study from two German universities and the Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies in New York. 

    The research centres around analysing language used in close to 50,000 tweets and other online statements by 100 of the richest tech-elites as listed by Forbes.

    The researchers conclude that big-tech elites such as Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates display a ‘meritocratic’ worldview, meaning they do not see wealth as a source of their influence or success, but rather believe their innate abilities and more altruistic beliefs have enabled them to achieve power.

    “We find that the 100 richest members of the tech world reveal distinctive attitudes that set them apart both from the general population and from other wealthy elites,” the study states.

    The findings reveal that big-tech elites consistently talk about believing in democracy, being philanthropic, and helping make the world a better place for other people.

    “Yet their position in a democratic system is contradictory – as a result of their enormous wealth, they have disproportionate influence over how discretionary income is spent,” the researchers note.

    The researchers found that language used by the tech-elites regularly includes words such as ‘merit’, ‘distinct’, ‘excellent’, ‘value’, ‘virtue’, ‘advantage’, ‘superiority’, ‘worth’, ‘perfect’, ‘important’ and ‘significant’.  

    The researchers also note that:

    “The tech elite may be thought of as a ‘class for itself’ in Marx’s sense – a social group that shares particular views of the world, which in this case means meritocratic, missionary, and inconsistent democratic ideology.”

    The researchers noted that the study had limitations, ironically owing to the fact that they were not able to access language used by all the top 100 tech-elites because Twitter is banned in China.

    The Twitter accounts they were able to access could also be managed by PR professionals and are obviously public projections of how the tech elites want to be thought of by the public at large, therefore the language used may be ‘strategic’.

    Nevertheless, the findings go some way to explaining why big-tech elites are so inclined to censor and de-platform those who hold world views at odds with their own.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 22:20

  • Winter Storm Could Batter Northeast Next Week 
    Winter Storm Could Batter Northeast Next Week 

    Widespread winter weather across the lower 48 states in recent weeks has been limited, but that drought could be over as early as this weekend into next week as a duo of storms could batter parts of the US. 

    Accuweather meteorologists are closely watching weather disturbances forecasted to bring snow, ice, and a wintry mix across parts of the Midwest and the Northeast. 

    Snow, ice, and a wintry mix could be seen across Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania, and New York early next week. 

    The Global Forecast System for forecast temperatures appears to show a dip in temperatures across the Midwest and the Northeast into early next week – during the time, the storm is expected to traverse those regions. 

    The Global Forecast System for precipitation shows the storm’s progression through the weekend into early next week. 

    The biggest worry would be slippery conditions on highways, especially in places where wintry mix falls.

    More accurate models on the storm’s trajectory and snow totals will be made available in the coming days. 

    Other weather models suggest warmer than average temperatures are expected across much of the US this month. However, there are two things natural gas bulls are watching for model shifts, and if that happens, demand could return later in the month, bouncing natgas prices. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 22:00

  • The Despicables
    The Despicables

    Authored by Eric Peters via EricPetersAutos.com,

    One of the nuggets to be mined from the wholesale cancelling of politically unapproved speech by the Tech Oligarchs – soon to be empowered by government oligarchs, if the “kraken” doesn’t somehow prevent it – is how obvious their pathological dishonesty has become.

    Amazon, Facebook and Twitter have asserted that, as private businesses, they have the right to decide with whom to do business – and not do business with. But do they feel the same way about the right of other private businesses to practice what they preach?

    Only when it conforms with what they preach.

    Consider the religious tenets of the Sickness Cult; specifically, the dogma that requires all to wear a Face Burqa within a privately owned business, even if the owner isn’t religious and isn’t interested in proselytizing to his customers, much less insisting they show respect for a religion he doesn’t subscribe to.

    It is a private business, is it not?

    Why then must this private business be forced to conduct its business according to the religious tenets of people who don’t own the business? Isn’t that a violation of the owner’s rights, just the same as the rights asserted by Amazon, Facebook and Twitter?

    They claim no one is forced to use their services; that people are free to use other services more to their liking. Bully! But why doesn’t the same standard apply to other private businesses, the ones the people who run Amazon, Twitter and Facebook insist be closed to people who aren’t forced to go within?

    People should be free to do business with whomever they wish, according to whatever terms are mutually agreeable to the parties. If one party does not find the terms agreeable then they are free to not do business with the other party. This is the argument purveyed with great unction by Amazon, Facebook and Twitter justifying their decisions to stop doing business with Parler, for instance (in the case of Amazon) and cancelling the ability of people whose opinions – and facts – they dislike from their platforms, including the president of the United States (in the case of Twitter and Facebook).

    Fine. Indeed.

    They do have every right. It’s despicable – in the manner of “No Colored” signs on the door of businesses back in the ’50s – but they have every right as privately owned businesses to do business with whomever they wish, according to whatever terms they wish – so long as people are free to  take their business elsewhere.

    Aye, there’s the rub.

    These Despicables want to enjoy the right to cancel, close – and decree – to others while at the same time denying the right of any other privately owned business to set its own terms and conditions.

    The Despicables cannot stand the idea of freedom of religion when it comes to the wearing of the Face Burqa, for instance. The Holy Vestment must be worn everywhere, even within privately owned businesses and irrespective of a businesses’ private property rights.

    Privately owned businesses are also unfree to unlock their doors and leave it up to customers to decide whether they wish to enter. It is not enough that no one is forced to enter these privately owned businesses. These privately owned businesses must be forced to not let them in – and if they are let in, force them to perform bizarre religious rituals including the wearing of a “mask.”

    But this is nothing new. The Left specializes in situational ethics; in fungible etymology. Like Humpty Dumpty, a word means exactly what the Left says it does until the Left says it means something else.

    This creates difficulties in the minds of rational, honest people – who take words at face value and base their arguments on moral principles that aren’t fungible. Thus the stymying of many conservatives – and even libertarians – with regard to the Mandatory Burqua policies imposed by many businesses under pressure from the government to do so – and also with regard to calling out the Despicables who brazenly refuse to do business with those whose opinions – and facts – they do not like, claiming they have private property rights to do so. . . and then going on a rampage when a privately owned business uses the same argument to defend its private property rights.

    The Left is defined not so much by its leftism but its psychotic doublethink. It is rancidly intolerant while touting itself as ethereally tolerant. It promotes racism in the name of combatting it.

    And it thinks property rights only apply to correct privately owned businesses; i.e., to their businesses.

    This has always been the case but now it’s out in the open – which may finally put an end to this business.

    *  *  *

    Got a question about cars, Libertarian politics – or anything else? Click on the “ask Eric” link and send ’em in! If you like what you’ve found here please consider supporting EPautos.  We depend on you to keep the wheels turning!  Our donate button is here.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 21:40

  • Microsoft Patents AI-Chatbots That Imitate Dead People 
    Microsoft Patents AI-Chatbots That Imitate Dead People 

    The United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) granted Microsoft one of the most bizarre patents to date: chatbots using deceased people’s personal information. 

    The Independent reports Microsoft is creating an AI-based chatbot based on “images, voice data, social media posts, electronic messages,” and other personal information. It’s thought that the chatbot would simulate the deceased person’s human conversation. 

    This AI-based chatbot concept is straight out of a Black Mirror episode called “Be Right Back,” where a young woman uses an AI-based chatbot to chat with her deceased partner. 

    The patent describes a “specific person [who the chatbot represents] may correspond to a past or present entity (or a version thereof), such as a friend, a relative, an acquaintance, a celebrity, a fictional character, a historical figure, a random entity, etc.” 

    “The specific person may also correspond to oneself (e.g., the user creating/training the chatbot,” the patent said, implying that living users could train AI-based chatbot as their digital replacement in the event of death. 

    The patent even includes creating 2-D or 3-D models of the person based on images, videos, and other information. 

    If the patent doesn’t lead to any tangible tech, it’s a reminder of the digital age we live in. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 21:20

  • Taibbi: The Echo Chamber Era
    Taibbi: The Echo Chamber Era

    Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

    A day after Joe Biden’s inauguration, the headline in Axios read: “Trust in media hits a new low.” Felix Salmon wrote that “for the first time ever, fewer than half of all Americans have trust in traditional media.” The Edelman survey showed overall trust in the press dropping to 46%.

    The traditional explanation for this phenomenon is that Republicans hate the press a lot, but Democrats just a little. The Axios story bore this out somewhat, as only 18% of Republicans reported trusting media, versus 57% of Democrats.

    Still, 57% of half your potential audience is nothing to brag about, when you’re in the trust business. Other numbers, like 56% of respondents believing journalists are “purposely trying to mislead people,” or 58% thinking that “most news organizations are more concerned with supporting an ideology… than with informing the public” are more ominous.

    Media critics who work in the corporate press, like Margaret Sullivan of the Washington Post, seem determined to look everywhere but inward for solutions. The dominant legend in our business is that if Republicans believe in fairy tales like Q and “Stop the Steal,” the traditional press can do nothing but stand its ground.

    Sullivan’s reaction to at-times “embarrassing” Inauguration Day coverage was an injunction to reporters to resist the temptation to try to appear more balanced by showing “toughness” with regard to the incoming Biden regime. If anything, Sullivan said, the press should stand even taller in its opposition to red-state lie merchants like Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz, “without fearing that they’d be called partisan.”

    Karen Attiah, the Post’s global opinions editor, took the same approach. She wrote that Trump had been caused in part by the media’s penchant for “balance” and “presenting both sides.” Going forward, it will therefore be necessary to work even harder avoid missteps like Politico’s much-criticized decision to publish Ben Shapiro, which Attiah decried as a decision defended with the “rusty armor of both-sidesism.”

    It’s astonishing that after so many years of decline in trust in media — this phenomenon has been going on for over a decade now, something I first started noticing when I published The Great Derangement back in 2008 — media people still think the issue is a mathematical question of “sides,” with widespread audience revulsion a kind of reward for their unflinching correctitude.

    Sullivan was a lot closer to the truth when she warned of being seduced by the return of a Biden administration that closely reflects “our values,” which she described as being like the world as represented in West Wing: celebrating “multiculturalism, a belief in the principles of liberal democracy, and a kind of wonky idealism.”

    West Wing was General Hospital for rich white liberals, a seven-season love letter to the enlightened attitudes of the Bobo-in-Paradise demographic. If that’s the self-image of the national press, it’s no wonder they make people want to vomit. The coverage of Biden’s inauguration, another celebration of those attitudes, was an almost perfect mathematical inverse of late-stage Trump reporting, a monument to groveling sycophancy.

    John Heileman at MSNBC compared Biden’s speech to Abe Lincoln’s second inaugural, and suggested that the sight of “the Clintons, the Bushes, and the Obamas” gathered for the event was like “the Marvel superheroes all back in one place” (this was not the first post-election Avengers comparison to be heard on cable). Rachel Maddow talked about going through “half a box of Kleenex” as she watched the proceedings. Chris Wallace on Fox said Biden’s lumbering speech was “the best inaugural address I ever heard,” John Kennedy’s “Ask Not” speech included. The joyful tone was set the night before by CNN’s David Challen, who said lights along the Washington Mall were like “extensions of Joe Biden’s arms embracing America.”

    As these neo-Soviet ministrations spread across the airwaves, an opposite storyline was discarded. From the Capitol riot on, we’d been warned about a sequel act of violence by Trump supporters. On January 11th, ABC reported that an internal FBI memo had “received information about an unidentified armed group” planning a “huge uprising” if efforts were made to remove Donald Trump via the 25th Amendment, while protesters were planning to “storm” state capitols in “all 50 states.”

    We were shown how 25,000 National Guard troops were deployed to protect the capital, with attendant subplots about an unusual effort to politically screen those Guardsmen. “While we have no intelligence indicating an insider threat,” Defense Secretary Chris Miller said, “we are leaving no stone unturned in securing the capital.”

    Beyond the 50-state threat, what if Trump just wouldn’t leave? That was the subject of countless stories across all four years of the Trump experience, with Vanity Fair’s “No One Knows How to Get Trump to Leave In January?” being a typical example. They speculated that the Secret Service might have to pull an old landlord’s trick:

    [The Secret Service] could also simply do the equivalent of changing the locks: “When the staff leaves on January 19, don’t let them back into the complex the next day,” an ex-agent said. “He can’t do anything without his staff.”

    Should we worry about martial law? Before the inauguration, USA Today and multiple other outlets wondered what would happen if Trump invoked the Insurrection Act, especially after the CEO of My Pillow, Michael Lindell, was spotted entering the White House with a document full of notes that apparently contained suggestions for invoking military rule.

    On Inauguration Day these stories melted away in silence. Trump and his wife Melania ditched the White House more or less without event Wednesday morning, unless one counts the unauthorized use of Village People hit “YMCA” as an exit tune (“it would seem his abusive use of our music has finally ended,” the band said in a statement). In localities around the country, there were but a few scattered reports about tiny or nonexistent demonstrations at state capitols:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In other cases, as in the instance of a gun-rights rally held at the Virginia State Capitol — many of whose attendees were apparently vocal opponents of Trump — livestream coverage by indy outlets like Jordan Chariton’s Status Coup was shut down, allegedly because it violated Google’s “firearms policy.”

    Balance isn’t about giving credulous coverage or equal time to Donald Trump or Josh Hawley or Ben Shapiro (though I think it’s crazy for news organizations to cut off all conservatives), it’s about being consistent. If you tell us on January 12th that all 50 state capitols are under serious threat — I was genuinely worried — you have to tell us what happens at the end of the story a week later. Was that threat real but deterred? Was it overblown? What happened to all of those warnings?

    This has been an ongoing theme of coverage in the Trump years: hyping a threat for a news cycle or two, then moving to the next panic as the basis for the first one dissipates. How many headlines were aimed out our outrage centers in the last four years that were quietly memory-holed, once they’d outlived their political utility? We read dozens of stories before the election warning that Russia was already interfering in the 2020 election. A smattering of New York Times headlines alone:

    • Lawmakers Are Warned That Russia Is Meddling to Re-elect Trump

    • Russia Continues Interfering in Election to Try to Help Trump, U.S. Intelligence Says

    • ‘Chaos Is the Point’: Russian Hackers and Trolls Grow Stealthier in 2020

    • F.B.I. Warns of Russian Interference in 2020 Race and Boosts Counterintelligence Operations

    • Putin Most Likely Directing Election Interference to Aid Trump, C.I.A. Says

    The Times almost weekly quoted people like the “American official” who said Russia was like a “tornado, capable of inflicting damage on American democracy now,” or FBI Director Christopher Wray, who said there was a “very active” campaign to influence the election and “denigrate Vice President Biden.”

    Then Biden won the election, the story disappeared, and the near-immediate conclusion of the same New York Times was that the election had been “free of fraud.” They quoted the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency as saying the 2020 vote was “the most secure in American history,” and as for all of those pre-election scare stories?

    A bipartisan consensus like this may tempt some people to conclude that the dire pre-election warnings were overblown, that the risks to the election were never that serious. The reality is the opposite…

    Like the wider Trump-Russia story itself, which magically vanished from coverage before both the 2018 and 2020 election seasons, audiences were asked for a time to care about certain things as if their lives depended on it, then just as quickly asked to forget the issues ever came up. And they wonder why people feel manipulated?

    We went through many of these episodes, from Bountygate to the “mass hysterectomies” story to the recent spate of “What if Trump blows up the universe?” scare-o-grams (Forbes, echoing the famed “Generalissimo Francisco Franco is Still Dead” construction, wrote the best of these, with “Enraged and Isolated, Donald Trump Still Has Sole Control of America’s Nukes”).

    We were repeatedly told that revealing the name of this or that patriotic news source would “risk lives,” only to have those sources turn out to be people like paid DNC researcher Christopher Steele, the “informant” Stefan Halper (exposed as an FBI source in the press in the eighties), or Brookings Institution fellow Igor Danchenko, who produced the pee tape tale over “beers” at a conversation made in “jest” with a pal in Moscow. Needless to say, no lives were ever threatened, and in many of those cases — Steele’s especially — the rationale for keeping the person’s name and employer a secret was clearly corrupt.

    Blue-state audiences didn’t ask for accounting for those official warnings for the same reason Trump voters never asked what happened to those three million undocumented votes Hillary Clinton supposedly won in 2016: audiences don’t demand explanations for puffed-up claims about other groups.

    People like Sullivan would have you believe that “balance” is a mandate to give voice to clearly illegitimate points of view, but it’s really about not falling so completely in love with your “values” that you stop caring to avoid mistakes about those who don’t share them, or even just mistakes generally.

    By any standard, the press had a terrible four years, from the mangling of dozens of Russiagate tales to scandals like the New York Times “Caliphate” disaster and the underappreciated Covington High School story fiasco. Still, many in the business can’t see how bad it’s been, because they’ve walled themselves off so completely from potential critics.

    Coupled with the enhanced aggressiveness of Silicon Valley in removing dissenting accounts across the spectrum — Facebook is taking down six Socialist Workers Party accounts in Britain as I write this, a day after zapping a series of Antifa accounts — reporters at places like the Post, the Times, and CNN every day have less and less to worry about in terms of audience blowback, and they know it. Just in the first few days of the Biden administration, we’ve seen editorial decisions that would never have been attempted once upon a time.

    The Post just tried to remove seven paragraphs of their own archived article about Vice President Kamala Harris, which contained a cringeworthy scene of Harris and her sister joking about prisoners begging for water, only to restore it after an outcry. CNN meanwhile ran a story that incoming Biden officials had to “build everything from scratch” with regard to Covid-19 policy because the Trump administration had no plan for vaccine distribution at all — not a bad or even a terrible plan, but literally a “nonexistent” plan, despite the fact that 36 million vaccines had already been delivered.

    In this rare case, rival media organizations cried foul, with reporters from both Politico and the Washington Post blasting the report as untrue and a “gambit to lower expectations” by the incoming administration. In an atmosphere where editors really feared discontent from outside demographics or rival party politicians, a story like that, with an over-the-top-to-impossible premise, would never even be tried.

    Competing voices and critics who’ll keep your newsroom at least theoretically honest are important, which is why the mass-deletions of alternative media accounts are so upsetting: it hugely enhances the likelihood of errors and cheap caricatures, as well as the belief in one’s infallibility. The fact that pundits and reporters are leading the charge for an ever-purer monoculture is beyond creepy. A tweet by Anand Giridharadas expressed what probably more than a few people in West Wing media-land are thinking these days:

    It’s bad that trust in media is down, but even worse that so few in the business seem to think it’s a problem. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 21:00

  • Google Threatens Shut Down In Australia Over Bill Designed To Better Compensate Content Providers
    Google Threatens Shut Down In Australia Over Bill Designed To Better Compensate Content Providers

    A huge controversy erupted last summer between major US social media platforms and the Australian government over a bill designed to better compensate and reward local news publishers, while bringing greater transparency to the way algorithms employed by Google, Facebook, and YouTube work.

    Months after failed attempts to come to an agreement with the government of Australia, Google is now threatening the dramatic step of shutting down its search engine in the country altogether.

    It stems from the initiative that seeks to ensure companies and content providers are compensated fairly for the value their content generates for Google and parent company Alphabet Inc.

    On Friday at a Senate hearing on the matter Google Australia Managing Director Mel Silva told lawmakers, “If this version of the Code were to become law, it would give us no real choice but to stop making Google Search available in Australia.”

    “That would be a bad outcome not just for us, but for the Australian people, media diversity and small businesses who use Google Search,” she added. She said as the legislation currently stands it would be “breaking” the way users typically search for information, upending Google’s operations.

    Silva attacked the bill for requiring “payments simply for links and snippets just to news results in Search” – while also touting the “free” service Google offers. “The free service we offer Australian users, and our business model, has been built on the ability to link freely between websites,” she said.

    “We don’t respond to threats,” Australia Prime Minister Scott Morrison hit back in the wake of the threatened Google shutdown in the country.

    Let me be clear. Australia makes our rules for things you can do in Australia. That’s done in our parliament. It’s done by our government and that’s how things work here in Australia and people who want to work with that in Australia, you’re very welcome,” he said.

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    It’s commonly estimated that Alphabet Inc. oversees at least 94% of all search traffic in Australia, similar to many other countries globally, at a time it’s coming under increased accusations of using its monopoly power to bully content providers and smaller competitors. 

    Meanwhile Bloomberg cites tech analyst Johan Lidberg, an associate professor at Melbourne’s Monash University, who said, “It’s about control and power.”

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    He added that Google is seeking to make an example in Australia: “They’re signaling to other regulators they’ll have a fight on their hands if they do this.”
     

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 20:40

  • Are We Still Allowed To Ask Questions?
    Are We Still Allowed To Ask Questions?

    Authored by Paul Rosenberg via FreeMansPerspective.com,

    Aside from a breathless stream of headlines and a few random inputs, I haven’t seen many facts regarding the events of January 6th. Circumstances made things that way for me, and now I’m glad they did, because it set me up for the really important issue: Am I allowed to ask questions about this, or am I not?

    Bear in mind that I haven’t voted for or otherwise championed Mr. Trump. (Nor did I support his opponents.) More than that, I really want to know the answers to these questions. Especially given the fallout from January 6th, honest answers to these questions matter a great deal.

    So, I’m going to stick my neck out and ask questions about this event that seem pertinent.

    Question #1: What was the actual time line?

    As I was driving on the 6th, I flipped on the radio and heard Mr. Trump speaking. I was aware that there was going to be a rally in the capitol, and so I listened for a minute or so, just enough to get the tone of it; a rally on the same day electoral votes were counted concerned me.

    What I actually heard from Mr. Trump, however, was less than his strongest, and included something like, “I know you’re going to go down there…” combined with “patriotically and peacefully.” Hearing him mention “peacefully” comforted me. (Plus the fact that American conservatives take pride in being peaceful and courteous.)

    And so I was rather shocked, not many minutes later, when a friend called and said something about the capitol. I responded along the lines of, “it sounds harmless enough”… whereupon I learned that protesters were already inside the building.

    Since then I’ve seen claims that Mr. Trump was a mile away, in the middle of his speech, when the capitol building was being broken into.

    So, between my own observations and the claims, I’d like to know what really happened when.

    Again, I honestly don’t know. What troubles me is that I haven’t seen the claim refuted, only ignored.

    Question #2: Were agents provocateur involved?

    One of the random things I came across was a report from Michael Yon, perhaps the most experienced war reporter in the world, claiming BLM and Antifa agents provocateur led the break-in. This is a guy who should be able to tell.

    I’ve further seen reports that someone named Sullivan was a known BLM leader, and was at the vanguard of people entering the building.

    So, I don’t actually know that BLM and Antifa were involved with this, but I’d very much like to know. And once again, I haven’t seen this question addressed. Perhaps I’ve missed something conclusive on this, but the question deserves to be addressed with facts.

    Question #3: Is thinking an election was rigged considered insane?

    This is the impression I get from about half of my headline stream: That anyone believing the recent election was rigged is flat-out insane. But for me, that’s a real problem, because I’ve experienced election rigging, personally. On top of that, I’ve known a lot of inside players in my home state, giving me many more reasons to believe in election rigging.

    That’s not proof that the November election was rigged, of course, but it’s clearly a reason for me to take seriously the possibility. And if I’m not allowed to ask, I have to wonder why.

    As best I can tell, none of the loud voices (news networks, etc.) have analyzed what has been claimed as evidence. Again, I may have missed something, but I simply haven’t seen it. So far as I know, the courts have never examined it (they got rid of the cases on procedural grounds in every case I recall), nor did congress: the “insurrection” interrupted that, after which it was ignored. That sounds very convenient to me, but again, I could have missed a lot.

    So again I’d like to know: Is such a question permissible, or will I be punished for asking it?

    Question #4: Aside from trespassing and a few broken windows, what harm was done?

    So far as I know, the answer is “not much,” though I may have missed something. A lady named Ashli Babbitt was shot and killed, but she was killed by the police, not the protesters. And details about other reported deaths are spotty. So, I think my question is valid.

    Several hundred politicians were inconvenienced, of course, but that’s hardly a major issue.

    A congressional baseball team being murderously shot up not too long ago was a big deal, but that came and went with almost none of the fanfare and fallout we’ve seen since January 6th.

    So again I ask, precisely what harm was done? And I ask especially because I’ve seen words like “sacred” applied to this, and to me that reeks of idolatry and dogma, the opposites of reason and proportion.

    Question #5: Where are the civil libertarians?

    I’ll admit that this one rather ticks me off. Tens of thousands of people have been ejected from the public square, not because they caused actual harm, but because someone thinks they’re part of an “insurrection.” Bear in mind that almost none of these people were anywhere near Washington, DC on the 6th. All they did was to fall within some algorithm produced by a surveillance capitalism company. (Google, Facebook, Twitter, etc.)

    I’ve further heard that people have lost jobs and financing in precisely the same manner: They had nothing to do with the event, but were somehow associated with it. Either that’s a witch hunt or there’s massive and direct evidence against all those people… and it sure doesn’t seem like that’s the case. Since when do we impose penalties for insurrection without a serious finding of fact?

    And Ron Paul, for goodness sake? He’s a congenitally polite doctor, now old and retired. Disagree with him all you like, but to eject him from the public square is naked thuggery.

    So again, I ask: Where are all the civil libertarians? They’re absent without leave, as best I can tell. Either that or it was always a charade, and their high-sounding rhetoric was just sucker-bait for the rubes.

    If These Things Can’t Be Asked…

    Here’s where the rubber meets the road: If we cannot ask these questions, confident that we’ll be met with reason and proportion, we’re living in a tyranny.

    What appears to be happening is an illogical statement being writ very large. This is the statement:

    Some people broke into the capitol and a few windows were broken, therefore our lives are in danger and we must stomp out all evildoers.

    Any connection between the first part of that sentence and the second is uncertain and (as best I can tell) unproven. And yet, the responses to January 6th treat it as completely verified.

    And so, if these questions are not permissible, we are living in tyranny, and particularly under the tyranny of those who punish the asking.

    So many times we see the true importance of things only once we lose them, and this moment has been revelatory in just that way: We can now see why free speech must be held sacrosanct.

    Free speech is inherently oppositional to tyranny. It’s the canary in our coal mine. When we see free speech abandoned and punished, we can be certain that tyranny is upon us.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 20:20

  • Jamie Dimon's Compensation Held Steady At $31.5 Million For 2020
    Jamie Dimon’s Compensation Held Steady At $31.5 Million For 2020

    While the nation is bearing the brunt of a recession and President Kamala Harris Joe Biden is battling to try and raise the minimum wage, Jamie Dimon, boss at JP Morgan, unfortunately had to see his pay hold steady at just a meager $31.5 million in 2020, according to bank disclosures on Thursday.

    The bank noted that “amid the unprecedented health and economic consequences of Covid-19” it was still able to post record revenue and hold a strong balance sheet, even while provisioning $12 billion for credit losses, according to FT. Its shares wound up down 8% for the year, despite a weeks-long rally to end the year. 

    Dimon’s pay package included $1.5 million base pay, a $5 million bonus and $25 million in “performance share units” that vest over time. The lack of a rise in his pay is a “signal that the biggest U.S. bank is focusing on keeping costs down amid uncertainty about the prospects for the economy,” Bloomberg noted.

    The filing says that “the board took into account the firm’s strong performance in 2020 and over the long term, across four broad dimensions: business results, risk, controls and conduct; client/customer/stakeholder; and teamwork and leadership”.

    Like many other banks, JP Morgan had warned that bonus season wasn’t going to be particularly plentiful, but we noted late last year that the bank was intent on boosting bonuses for sales and trading workers by 15% to 20%. Bank of America, for example, disclosed it would pay special bonuses of $750 to employees earning $100,000 or less; higher paid employees will receive bonuses tied to stock.

    Despite the bank’s stellar performance in the fourth quarter, Dimon took a more somber tone, stating: “It’s not like we’re bragging, we’re not.” The bank made “more money than it ever has in three months” during the fourth quarter, Bloomberg noted. The bank’s annual profit was down 20% to $29.1 billion during the year.

    JP Morgan marks the first bank to reveal the compensation of its CEO out of all of the major U.S. banks. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 20:00

  • "Spend As Much As You Can… And Then Spend A Little More!"
    “Spend As Much As You Can… And Then Spend A Little More!”

    Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

    Are you ready for this week’s absurdity?

    Here’s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, risks to your prosperity… and on occasion, inspiring poetic justice.

    “Spend as much as you can and then spend a little bit more.”

    At an economic forum last week, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) told governments :

    “In terms of policies for right now, very unusual for the IMF, starting in March I would go out and I would say: ‘please spend’. Spend as much as you can and then spend a little bit more.”

    She added that she continues advocating this policy.

    Governments across the world are in massive debt. And essentially all of them continue to finance their debt by printing money. Meanwhile economies have shrank over the past year due to COVID restrictions on travel, and business.

    So more debt, a smaller economy, and more paper money than ever, with nothing backing it…

    What could possibly go wrong?

    Click here to read the full story.

    Apple Sued to Force it to Remove Telegram from its App Store

    An organization called the Coalition for a Safer Web is suing Apple to try to force the company to remove the messaging app Telegram from its app store.

    The lawsuit claims Apple is failing to enforce its terms of service because Telegram “allows” (read: doesn’t censor) “extremist” content.

    It’s bad enough that Apple removed Parler from its app store because the social media platform allows free speech. But that wasn’t enough for the censorship zealots.

    Now the woke mob has moved beyond Twitter and taken to the courts.

    Click here to read the full lawsuit.

    23 Elderly People Have Died Soon After Receiving COVID Vaccine

    The Norwegian government issued a warning that frail, elderly people with underlying health conditions might be in danger from the COVID vaccines.

    So far, at least 23 elderly people have died shortly after receiving the first dose of the BioNTec /Pfizer COVID vaccine.

    “Based on these reports we cannot rule out that common adverse reactions, such as fever and nausea, may contribute to a more serious course and fatal outcome in some frail patients with severe underlying diseases,” said Sigurd Hortemo, chief physician at the Norwegian Medicines Agency.

    So it’s possible that the most likely group to die from COVID may also be the most likely group to die from the COVID vaccine…

    Click here to read the full story.

    Germany Will Detain Quarantine Breakers in Camps

    An emergency German law gave states the power to detain people who come into contact with COVID and refuse to quarantine, even if they test NEGATIVE for Covid multiple times.

    Now, some German states are moving ahead with plans to detain people in immigrant detention camps, and juvenile detention centers.

    You might think Germany, of all countries, would shy away from detaining people in camps.

    But the Germans insist that these are totally not concentration camps.

    You might even call them social distancing camps, which is like, the opposite of concentration. So that makes it OK.

    Click here to read the full story.

    Study finds no difference in COVID cases among strict versus lenient countries

    A peer reviewed study begins:

    “The most restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID‐19 are mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closures. Given the consequences of these policies, it is important to assess their effects.”

    The study compared less restrictive countries like Sweden and South Korea, to countries which issued strict lockdowns, like England, France, Germany, Iran, and Italy.

    It found “no clear, significant beneficial effect” in using strict lockdowns to control the spread of COVID. In fact in some cases, such as France, COVID cases increased in the wake of strict interventions.

    I guess governments destroyed your civil liberties and businesses for no reason, since the study concluded: “Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.”

    Listen to the scientists. Unless, of course, the scientists are anti-lockdown.

    Click here to read the full story.

    *  *  *

    On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That’s why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 19:40

  • Is It Almost Over: US Sees Record One-Day Drop In COVID Hospitalizations
    Is It Almost Over: US Sees Record One-Day Drop In COVID Hospitalizations

    In the last few days – really since the BIden inauguration – we have seen declarations of victory over covid across the board, from the likes of Dr. Fauci who yesterday said that coronavirus infections may be about to hit a “plateau“, to Wall Street, where Bank of America yesterday declared “The Beginning Of The End Of The COVID Crisis.

    In its chart of the day, BofA showed that the US is now clearly over the hump, with 142,000 COVID cases in the US on Monday, down 32% from the prior Monday with the seven day average also dropping to 209,000, down 16% from the peak on January 8th.”

    In another good sign, the bank said that “testing is increasing and the share of tests that come back positive is falling” and cheerfully adds that “It seems clear that an end to the holiday season, a modest increase in restrictions and a small increase in herd immunity is bending the COVID curve.”

    So is the beginning of covid’s end truly nigh (coincidentally, just as Joe Biden walked into the White House)?

    It would appear that the answer is yes: as Goldman predicted last month, now that the US has administered 17.5 million vaccines and the pace has picked up to 6.4 million per week (19 per every 1000 people and almost 1million per day), Bloomberg today announced that Covid-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. fell by the most ever on Thursday, the latest sign that not only “relief may be coming to a health-care system that’s been fighting the virus for almost a year”, but that the pandemic appears to finally be under control.

    Bloomberg cites the latest Covid Tracking Project data according to which, the number of people currently hospitalized with Covid dropped by 2,773 in a single day to 119,927, while the one-week drop of 9,020 was also a record, the data show. More importantly, the decrease is accelerating on a percentage basis.

    To be sure, the absolute number of people with Covid-19 in hospitals is still extraordinarily high, and while the virus remains prevalent in much of the country, it is now following the hospitalization scenario laid out by Goldman…

    … which said that “as vaccinations ramp with the targeted population we see the potential for significant further declines in US hospitalizations in the coming weeks” and in fact predicts no more covid-related hospitalizations in just a few months. The data also corroborates what we published in mid-December when we used Goldman’s analysis when we explained “Why Covid Hospitalizations And Deaths Are About To Plunge.”

    Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes “the U.S. is also entering the second month of its vaccination push, with 18 million doses of the vaccine administered, or 5.62 people per 100, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. Fauci has estimated that the U.S. needs to vaccinate more than 70% of its people to return to a degree of normalcy.”

    Which means that between those Americans who already have natural immunity to covid (from having survived it) and those who will get the vaccine in the next several months, herd immunity should be a fact of life by the late spring (unless, of course, Fauci moves the goalposts again, or a new mutant strain with immunity to all vaccines mysteriously emerges in the next few weeks).

     

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 19:20

  • Trump Impeachment Trial To Start February 8th, Dems Float Ban From Office (Again)
    Trump Impeachment Trial To Start February 8th, Dems Float Ban From Office (Again)

    Update (1900ET): Senate Democrat Leader Schumer announced The Senate will start President Trump’s second impeachment trial during the week of Feb. 8, marginally ahead of Senate Republican Leader McConnell’s proposed timeline.

    “Both the House managers and the defense will have a period of time to draft their legal briefs just as they did in previous trials. … Once the briefs are drafted, the presentation by the parties will commence the week of Feb. 8,” Schumer said from the Senate floor (in dramatic fashion)…

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    The full timeline:

    “Leader McConnell is glad that Leader Schumer agreed to Republicans’ request for additional time during the pre-trial phase. Especially given the fast and minimal process in the House, Republicans set out to ensure the Senate’s next steps will respect former President Trump’s rights and due process, the institution of the Senate, and the office of the presidency,” said Doug Andres, a spokesman for McConnell.

    Finally, in yet another news-cycle-grabbing repeat of what has been discussed numerous times, The Hill reports that Democrats are mulling whether they can use the 14th Amendment to prevent former President Trump from ever holding office again.

    “It’s an idea that’s out there that I think people are contemplating in the accountability space,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who described himself as “quite confident” that Congress could act under the constitutional amendment.

    Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who caveated that talk of the 14th Amendment was hypothetical, said it could be applied to Trump, with one mechanism being a resolution from Congress.

    “The remedies of the 14th Amendment certainly may be appropriate for someone who incites an insurrection as Donald Trump did,” said Blumenthal, a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

    An “idea” that would suggest the Democrats’ real agenda.

    Ironically, as this story dropped, Trump reportedly spoke his first public words since leaving office

    “We’ll do something, but not just yet,” Trump told Rob Crilly of the Washington Examiner on Friday. 

    *  *  *

    Update (1015ET): Senate Democrat Leader Schumer has just confirmed that House Speaker Pelosi will deliver the Trump impeachment resolution to the Senate on Monday 26th January.

    This is slightly ahead of McConnell’s plan – which had hoped for delivery on January 28th – but as far as the rest of the timeline is concerned, there is no apparent change yet.

    The apparent rush seems to signal that Democrats are more keen to stop Trump from ever being able to run for office again than they are for providing stimulus to Americans?

    *  *  *

    While the left is split between wanting to hammer the final nail in Trump’s coffin (through the Senate impeachment trial) and tending to its aggressive agenda of new laws, spending, and government control, U.S. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) issued a statement today regarding his proposed timeline for the first phases of an impeachment trial of former president Trump.

    “I have sent a proposed timeline for the first phases of the upcoming impeachment trial to Leader Schumer and look forward to continuing to discuss it with him.

    “Senate Republicans are strongly united behind the principle that the institution of the Senate, the office of the presidency, and former President Trump himself all deserve a full and fair process that respects his rights and the serious factual, legal, and constitutional questions at stake. Given the unprecedented speed of the House’s process, our proposed timeline for the initial phases includes a modest and reasonable amount of additional time for both sides to assemble their arguments before the Senate would begin to hear them.

    “At this time of strong political passions, Senate Republicans believe it is absolutely imperative that we do not allow a half-baked process to short-circuit the due process that former President Trump deserves or damage the Senate or the presidency.”

    Specifically, Leader McConnell shared the following proposed pre-trial timeline with the Republican Conference today:

    When the articles arrive, the House Managers would exhibit (read) the articles to the Senate, Senators would be sworn in the Members as the Court of Impeachment, and would issue a summons to former President Trump.  While we do not know what day the Managers will choose, Leader McConnell has asked for this to occur on Thursday, January 28. 

    Former President Trump would have one week from that day to answer the articles of impeachment (February 4).  The House’s pre-trial brief would also be due then.

    The President would then have one week from the day he submits his answer to submit his pre-trial brief (February 11).  That means former president Trump has fourteen total days from when we issue the summons to write his pre-trial brief.  The House would also submit its replication on this date.

    The House would then have two days to submit their rebuttal pre-trial brief (February 13).  

    This approach tracks the structure of the Clinton and Trump pre-trial processes. 

    The periods between due dates are longer than in 1999 or 2020, but this is necessary because of the House’s unprecedented timeline.

    So far we have not seen any response from Senate Democrat Leader Schumer, but we do note the timing is ironic as (in what appears to be more PR stunt than anything else) freshman Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announced via Twitter video Thursday that she’s filed articles of impeachment on President Joe Biden.

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    As SaraACarter.com’s Jennie Taer reports, Rep. Greene earlier pledged on Newsmax on January 13 to do so on the first day of Biden’s presidency, as reported.

    “We cannot have a President of the United States that is willing to abuse the power of the office of the presidency and be easily bought off by foreign governments, foreign Chinese energy companies, Ukrainian energy companies. So on January 21st, I will be filing articles of impeachment on Joe Biden,” said Rep. Greene.

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    As w3e noted, while this is unlikely to proceed, that did not stop Democratic Reps such as Al Green from incessantly posting articles during Trump’s term (as early as May 2017).

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 19:00

  • Black Prof Shreds 'Anti-Racist' Activists For "Bluffing", Confronts What They "Don't Want To Talk About"
    Black Prof Shreds ‘Anti-Racist’ Activists For “Bluffing”, Confronts What They “Don’t Want To Talk About”

    Authored by Benjamin Zeisloft via Campus Reform,

    Glenn Loury, a Brown University economics professor, shredded racial activists for “bluffing” as they fail to address Black-on-Black crime and other issues plaguing the Black community.

    On an episode of his podcast, The Glenn Show, Loury told co-host and Columbia University professor John McWhorter that certain issues in the Black community are neglected.

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    “We’re in an equilibrium, as economists might say,” explained Loury.

    “We’re in a stable, ongoing situation where there are tacit agreements not to talk about certain things. Not to talk about Black-on-Black crime as the scourge that it is. Not to talk about affirmative action as being necessary because of Black mediocrity, not measuring up on the competitive edge.”

    “People don’t want to talk about the Black family,” he continued.

    “It’s an absolute catastrophe that two-thirds to three-quarters of Black kids are being raised in a home without a father present in the home, in terms of the social cohesion of the community. People don’t want to say that.”

    Loury also explained that the forced silence of Black people in talking about these issues will prompt more non-Blacks to speak up.

    According to Loury, Americans will eventually realize that Boston University Center for Anti-Racist Director and author of How to Be An Anti-Racist Ibram X. Kendi is an “empty suit.” At that point, “the jig is up, the bluff is called, and they don’t have any cards.”

    In his book, Kendi teaches readers that “the only remedy to present discrimination is future discrimination.”

    Loury, an accomplished economist, became the first tenured Black professor in the Harvard University economics department at the age of 33, according to the New York Times.

    Campus Reform reached out to Loury for comment; this article will be updated accordingly.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 19:00

  • Most.Popular.President.Ever…?
    Most.Popular.President.Ever…?

    The media heralded Biden after he pulled off the ‘stunning’ achievement of garnering the most votes in presidential history with over 81 million, beating Barack Obama’s previous record of 69.5 million.

    However, as Summit News’ Paul Joseph Watson points out, Biden being the most popular person to win the Oval Office in history doesn’t seem to translate to enthusiasm for his speeches, which are typically watched online by a paltry amount of viewers.

    Case in point, the most-viewed clip on the official ‘The White House” channel on YouTube (with 1.9 million subscribers), a 31 minute video of Biden’s inauguration (with over 450,000 views), has 9,400 thumbs up compared to 43,000 thumbs down.

    As PJW concludes, Biden is supposedly “the most popular president in U.S. history,” but you wouldn’t know it by looking at his YouTube analytics.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 18:40

  • Americans Are Suffering Through The Most Painful Economic Crisis Since The Great Depression
    Americans Are Suffering Through The Most Painful Economic Crisis Since The Great Depression

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    I warned that an economic collapse was coming, and an economic collapse is exactly what we got.  2020 was a “personal financial disaster” for 55 percent of all Americans, approximately 12 million U.S. renters are “at least $5,850 behind in rent and utilities payments”, the Aspen Institute is projecting that up to 40 million people could be facing eviction when the rent and mortgage moratoriums finally end, and more than 70 million new claims for unemployment benefits have been filed since the COVID pandemic began.

    Nobody can point to a time since the Great Depression of the 1930s when the U.S. economy was in worse shape than it is right now.

    Unfortunately, there are no indications that this nightmare is going to end.  Last week, another 900,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits

    Another 900,000 people filed new unemployment claims last week, President Donald Trump’s last in office, a snapshot of the significant labor market challenges facing President Joe Biden.

    An additional 423,000 people in 47 states filed new claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the program created to help gig and self-employed workers.

    Prior to 2020, the all-time record for new unemployment claims in a single week was just 695,000, and that old record was set all the way back in 1982.

    We shattered that old record early in 2020, but the bigger story is what has happened since we broke it.

    At this point, the number of new claims for unemployment benefits has been above 695,000 for 44 weeks in a row.

    That is starting to come close to a full year.

    If that does not qualify as a “collapse”, then you are probably using a completely different definition of the word than I am using.

    This unemployment crisis has hit low wage workers particularly hard.  At this point, even Fed officials are being forced to admit that the unemployment rate for low wage workers “is above 20%”.

    Many of those low wage workers used to be employed in the restaurant industry, but the restaurant industry continues to be mired in the worst stretch that it has ever encountered

    The number of “seated diners,” a daily measure with which OpenTable tracks walk-ins and diners with reservations, in the week through January 20 in the US was down on average by 57% from the same period last year.

    The hospitality industry also typically employs large numbers of low wage workers, and we are being told that last year was the “worst year on record” for that industry…

    According to STR, Inc, a hotel industry market data firm, 2020 was absolutely the worst year on record for hotels as industrywide profits fell to zero, as the virus pandemic and resulting government-enforced social distancing measures kept travelers at home.

    STR’s latest report said the US hotel occupancy rate was 44% for the year, down from 66% in 2019. This was the lowest occupancy rate on record. In an earlier STR report, we noted weeks ago that the industry had one billion unsold room nights for the first time, surpassing the record of 786 million in 2009.

    Countless numbers of small business owners have also been absolutely devastated by this economic downturn.

    Each month, thousands of small businesses die a permanent death, and the outlook for the months ahead is not good at all.

    The Epoch Times recently interviewed one small business owner in Minnesota who admitted that “the fallout by this time next year will be shocking”…

    The ramifications of the forced shutdowns on thousands of small businesses in Minnesota is going to be huge, says Julie Schroeder, who owns two craft stores in the Minneapolis metro area.

    “The fallout by this time next year will be shocking,” she told The Epoch Times on Dec. 30, 2020.

    Meanwhile, north of the border small businesses are being destroyed at a staggering rate as well

    The Canadian Federation of Independent Business is warning that more than 220,000 businesses across the country are at risk of permanently closing due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The CFIB, a lobby group that represents small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in Canada, released a new report on Thursday that surveyed 4,129 members about business prospects through the pandemic. The survey found that 181,000 businesses – or one in six – are seriously contemplating permanently closing. That’s up from a similar survey conducted in July, which found that 158,000 businesses were at risk of closing.

    In the end, if we can keep the amount of small businesses in the U.S. and Canada that go under to less than 20 percent that should be considered a major victory.

    Because I have a feeling that the final number is going to be well above that threshold.

    And the Biden administration does not seem too sympathetic to the needs of small businesses at this point.  For example, one new law that Biden is likely to sign would absolutely cripple small truckers

    Trucking industry experts expect Joe Biden’s presidency to seriously jeopardize many small American trucking companies, and the prospects of truck drivers who work as independent contractors.

    Biden is poised to sign a transportation law passed in the Democratic House and stalled in the then-Republican Senate in 2019. The Moving Forward Act had required commercial motor vehicles to maintain more than $2 million in insurance liability, more than doubling the existing $750,000.

    Wouldn’t it be nice if our representatives in Washington were forced to take a basic course in economics before they were allowed to serve?

    The blind are leading the blind, and the economic nightmare that we are currently experiencing is eventually going to get a whole lot worse.

    But hopefully we can at least have a short period of time where things will plateau a bit before the next major trigger event happens.

    So many people out there are really hurting right now, and it is not just financial pain that they are dealing with.

    The past several months have been excruciatingly painful for tens of millions of Americans, and the truth is that there are countless people out there that are emotionally shattered at this moment.

    If you are one of those people, just keep hanging in there.

    It will take some time, but you will get through this and you will recover.

    And I will continue to be here pumping out articles as I do my very best to try to help everyone make sense of a world that is going completely mad.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 18:20

  • So You Missed Today's Epic Move In Gamestop: Here's How To Catch The Next One
    So You Missed Today’s Epic Move In Gamestop: Here’s How To Catch The Next One

    Back in 2013, we first said that in a market as broken as this one, where no fundamental or technical analysis works, and where logic and rational thought have been flipped upside down thanks to the Fed, the best strategy is to merely go long the most shorted stocks… and wait for the epic short squeeze.

    Well, a few days ago, something caught our eye: just as Gamestop’s stock was starting to ramp higher, we pointed out that the open interest of Gamestop was higher than the float…

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    … potentially setting up an epic short squeeze, like that in Volkswagen which exploded ten-fold back in 2008 which found itself in a similar predicament with not enough physical share float to cover all outstanding shorts (whether or not these calculations are in fact 100% accurate doesn’t matter: all that is needed is for the perception that there may be an epic short squeeze to spread, coupled with some upside catalyst).

    Well, that catalyst today was Citron Research which, with the stock already rampaging in the past few days, announced at the open that it will stop commenting on the stock following the actions of “an angry mob.”

    “We are investors who put safety and family first and when we believe this has been compromised, it is our duty to walk away from a stock,” Citron managing partner Andrew Left wrote in a Friday letter.

    Left’s letter came a day after he said in a YouTube video that he’d “never seen such an exchange of ideas of people so angry about someone joining the other side of a trade,” referring to Reddit bulls who have been particularly “vocal” on the social media site in pushing their bullish opinions on the video-game retailer’s stock.

    An army of Robinhood, Reddit and TicToc traders read the letter as capitulation on the fund’s short position, recall that as recently as Tuesday Citron said that it saw the stock returning to $20 “quickly”…

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    … which in turn unleashed a historic pile up into Gamestop today as daytraders tired – and succeeded – in forcing a massive short squeeze. So furious was the ramp, that at one point, the video-game retailer was the most actively traded US company with a market value above $200 million, according to Bloomberg. It certainly was the most active day in company history: with more than 193 million shares traded on Friday, it was the most active day for the company since it went public in 2002.

    The resulting surge in GME, which pushed the stock as much as 80% higher at one point, was an epic victory for all those Redditors  – many of whom continued to pump up their bets with one user saying they relied on it to pay their student loans

    … who followed our simple – yet favorite – market strategy of merely doing the opposite of what makes sense. And in this case a bunch of Gen-Zers and Millennials demonstrated how easy it is to steamroll one of the more respected shortsellers in the US.

    To be sure, there were also some fundamental reasons for the surge: as Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said, GameStop became a “cult stock because of Ryan Cohen’s success with Chewy” and retail investors “appear confident that he can implement omnichannel initiatives that will materially grow their earnings.”

    Maybe, but for the company to be worth $50 a share it would have to quickly double its growth, Pachter, who has a $16 price target which is the second highest among analyst tracked by Bloomberg, said.

    Not that fundamentals matter: with a record 71 million shares short, or a whopping 142% of the float, it is unclear how many of the stubborn shorts have covered their position, especially since today’s surge attracted a new generation of GME bears who may be next to get trampled by the Reddit stampede.

    “While older existing shorts have been covering some of their positions due to a profit-loss based short squeeze, there is a queue of new short sellers wanting to get short exposure in GME after its recent run-up,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3’s managing director told Bloomberg.

    One thing we do know is that the pain for the shorts has been immense, having suffered more than $3.3 billion mark-to-market losses this year (incidentally, Gamestop should immediately announce an equity offering and use the proceeds to pay down its $1.2 billion in debt, although since no institution would ever buy GME at this price, the company would have to pull at Tesla and announce an At The Money offering to the same redditors who pushed it to this level, and maybe to the stranded shorts).

    And while it is unclear if the squeeze will continue – Reddit traders are known for having a relatively short attention span – one thing we do know is that the same strategy of going long, and ideally unleashing the Reddit herd, on the most shorted names will continue to make huge profits in this absolutely insane market.

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    So for all those who wish to ride the next Gamespot to untold riches and force a massive squeeze, we have done a little homework for you. Specifically, we have screened through the Russell 3000 and picked the companies that are the top candidates for a (forced) short squeeze: those whose short interest at a % of the float is > 50%. The 11 “hjts”, which are incidentally headed by GameStop, are shown below.

    An equal-weighted basket of these 10 stocks has more than doubled off the March lows and is accelerating in the last few days…

    For those who wish to gamble their next stimmy check and frontrun the next reddit-raid, the best move would be to buy equal amounts of the 10 companies (ex GME) and just wait for the short squeeze panic to unroll. Yes, there is a risk that the entire stimmy will be lost, but that would require logic and fundamentals to matter again… and we just don’t see that happening any time soon.

    For more, see Premium

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/22/2021 – 18:00

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Today’s News 22nd January 2021

  • Smith: Will Biden's Presidency Be A Catalyst For Secession… Or Worse?
    Smith: Will Biden’s Presidency Be A Catalyst For Secession… Or Worse?

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    Over the past few months I have written a handful of articles which discussed what would probably happen if Joe Biden actually entered the White House and launched his administration. My initial belief was that Trump would refuse to concede and that this would be a trigger for national chaos blamed on conservatives, but I have also noted that Biden’s entry is almost just as disruptive, as it sends a signal to the political left that it is “open season” on anyone that disagrees with their ideology.

    Of course, conservatives are not going to simply sit still and be purged and abused, they are going to strike back, and this sets the stage for a number of events and outcomes, some of which are completely unpredictable, even for establishment globalists.

    First, though, we need to address how Biden and the globalists are going to create chaos so that they can then demand their own brand of “order”.

    In my article ‘A Biden Presidency Will Mean A Faster US Collapse’, published in October, I outlined why the ongoing economic crisis will accelerate in the wake of a Biden takeover. More specifically, I predicted that Biden would implement a federal covid lockdown, probably within the first year of his presidency, similar to the Level 4 lockdowns implemented in Europe and Australia. Biden may lure Americans into complacency with promises of “relief” and less restrictions in his first couple months, but he will then use the rather convenient news of “covid mutations” to bring in even harsher mandates.

    Such a lockdown, if Americans submit, would mean an even larger spike in unemployment, a loss of hundreds of thousands of small businesses as well as a huge loss in tax revenues for some states (mostly blue states).

    Another scenario is that Biden leaves the lockdowns in the hands of state governments, but pursues a nationwide program for medical passports. The passport, of course, would require people to take the vaccine and accept contact tracing apps on their phones; meaning 24/7 surveillance on the public. At least 30% of Americans have said in polling that they will refuse the vaccines outright. Another 60% have said they are wary of the vaccines and need proof of their effectiveness. So, the medical passports will lead to millions of people being denied participation in the mainstream economy and collapse happens anyway.

    In other words, the elites are going to try to hold the economy hostage while telling the public that if we don’t accept medical tyranny it will be OUR FAULT if the system breaks down.

    The economic crisis, however, started long before the pandemic, long before Biden and long before Trump. It has been building since the credit crash of 2008, and in the 12 years since, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been pumping out trillions in stimulus while encouraging non-stop debt accumulation. Right before the beginning of the pandemic, the US was suffering from the highest corporate debt in history, the highest consumer debt in history as well as the highest national debt in history.

    What we are witnessing right now is the final phase of a collapse scenario that was more than a decade in the making, and Biden is about to help finish the job.

    Biden will no doubt seek to hyperinflate the dollar in the name of offsetting the losses and keep things afloat for a short time, but the real agenda will be to trigger price spikes in goods as well as eventually killing the dollar altogether. No amount of stimulus will stop the crash that has already been set in motion; the bailout measures from this point on are Kabuki theater, a show put on for the masses to make us believe that the government and the banks “did everything they could” to save us. The elites have no intention of stalling or stopping the collapse; their “great reset” demands it.

    One’s initial assumption would be that Biden would then take the blame for the economic crisis, but it appears that the establishment is going to set up a Herbert Hoover narrative and lay all the blame squarely on Trump and conservatives. In the past I have noted that Trump’s trajectory was very similar to Herbert Hoover’s, in that he was a business mogul and Republican that pushed for corporate tax cut policies and also extensive tariff’s.

    Hoover also served only one term, taking the blame for the crash of 1929 and the advent of the Great Depression, even though the crash was primarily caused by the Federal Reserve’s ultra low interest rates and easy money, followed by a series of rate hikes (a fact which former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke would later openly admit to in 2002). This launched the three term dominion of Franklin D. Roosevelt, one of the most communistic presidents in our history and the initiator of socialist programs which have since buried the American public in Quadrillions of dollars in unfunded liabilities.

    Biden’s latest statements indicate he will be introducing numerous executive orders to “correct the mistakes of the Trump administration”, thereby implanting the idea that whatever happens next is Trump’s fault. The “Reset” globalists and their central banking partners will have to bring down the US economy very quickly under a Biden White House. Why? Because if they wait, or if they try to drag out the collapse and the worst happens a few years down the road, Biden and the globalists will get the blame. They MUST crash the old world order now so that Trump and conservatives can be saddled with the consequences.

    The strategy seems to be this:

    • Demonize conservatives as much as possible as quickly as possible so that our purge from social platforms can be rationalized.

    • When we are incapable of defending ourselves in the public sphere because we have been removed from the internet, the establishment and leftists can blame us for everything going wrong.

    • The public would have no access to any other points of view or contradictory facts and evidence because the alternative media will be gone.

    • We become the monsters, the bogeymen and the source of all American suffering.

    We didn’t fall into the trap of supporting martial law measures during the BLM riots, so this must be Plan B.

    Will their plan work? I doubt it. Just as the globalist rollout of the pandemic lockdowns and medical tyranny is failing to gain traction in the US as huge numbers of people refuse to take the questionable vaccines, I suspect millions upon millions of Americans are already savvy to the propaganda schemes of the establishment and will not buy in. But, that doesn’t mean the elites won’t try it anyway.

    In early November in Issue #47 of my newsletter, The Wild Bunch Dispatch, I war gamed the Biden scenario extensively and concluded that if he was to enter the White House it would have to be followed by a massive erasure of conservative media platforms from the internet. I stated that:

    If Biden does indeed enter the White House and take control of the presidency, expect certain consequences right away: A complete full spectrum censorship campaign of conservative news sources will be undertaken by tech companies and government. There is no way Biden and the democrats could keep control of the situation while conservatives are able to share information in real time. Do not be surprised if web providers suddenly start kicking conservative sites off their servers, just as Bitchute (a YouTube alternative) was kicked off their server for 24 hours on election night.”

    This is already happening, and Biden hasn’t even stepped foot into the role of “commander and chief” yet. The coordinated effort by Big Tech to remove Parler, a Twitter alternative, from the web completely was not all that surprising. Luckily, Parler will be back up and running by the end of the month, but the censorship campaign is only going to get worse from here on. Biden WILL support and defend the censorship efforts by Big Tech and the fascist marriage between government and the corporate world will be complete.

    To summarize, the globalists have to silence us before they can effectively demonize us. The truth is on our side; facts and logic are on our side. They can’t win the war of ideas if we are allowed to speak; this is why they are so desperate to silence us.

    Sweeping gun control measures will be issued by Biden, but only after the conservative purge from the internet is close to finished. If conservatives are isolated from one another in terms of communication, this makes it harder to organize a defense against aggressive gun confiscation. Biden will most likely try to exploit Red Flag gun laws first, this would allow federal agencies to declare anyone to be “a threat to public safety” without due process, and have their guns taken away preemptively.

    There is an obvious outcome to all of these actions and I don’t think it’s far fetched to suggest that conservative counties and states will demand secession. At the very least, conservatives are going to continue to relocate to red states and red counties, just so they can continue to do business and make a living without government interference. There’s no way that most conservatives controlled states or counties are going to submit to federal lockdown mandates or medical passports, and economies in conservative regions are going to remain stable because of this while blue states are going to crumble.

    Biden will seek to retaliate against conservative controlled areas of the country in response.

    There comes a point when it is impossible for those that value freedom, logic and reason to live side-by-side with those that are irrationally obsessed with control. The American constitutional framework in particular was designed to prevent collectivism from overriding individual liberties, but if the system is sabotaged through subversion and the Bill of Rights is violated, then maintaining the system is no longer plausible.

    The best option for a number of reasons is to separate. Secession is often referred to as “running away” from a cultural problem, but this is an ignorant way of looking at it.

    We are reaching a stage right now in the US where it will be virtually impossible to voice political concerns without risking retribution. If you are a conservative, you will be targeted.

    If conservatives and moderates migrate away from leftist controlled areas and congregate in red states or red counties, then it will be difficult for leftists to attack them for voicing their views. If your employer is a conservative, then he’s not going to care if a leftist mob demands you be fired. If you own a business in a conservative community, then the people that live there will continue as your customers regardless of what leftists say about you.

    Conservatives and moderates MUST start to physically separate from the political left. We must remove ourselves from the blood sucking parasites that have attached themselves to us. This allows us to remain free to think and speak as we like, and it takes all power away from leftists to hurt us by disrupting our means of making a living.

    Secession is a more extreme measure, but it WILL become necessary if leftists refuse to accept that we are no longer participating in their games of fear and subterfuge. Leftists are collectivist by nature, and collectivists see people as property. Walking away is not an option in their minds. So, though we might successfully separate, this would only be the beginning of the battle.

    The important thing is to first make sure that conservatives KNOW that there are places they can go where their civil rights are valued and defended. If conservatives feel completely isolated and alone, many will give up, go dark and pray they are not discovered. This is unacceptable.

    The advantage of secession is clear; by separating, conservatives force the enemy to come to them, on ground they have prepared. The leftists will be the aggressors by default. They will try to present the situation otherwise, but it won’t matter. We will have the moral high ground as well as the superior strategic position.

    There are multiple narratives that will be used to demonize the secession movement beyond the terrorism angle. In particular, I think the government and the media will try to tie secession to “foreign entities”. In other words, they will claim the secession movement is being funded or supported by Russia, or some other foreign power. This is what almost every government in history has done when faced with a viable secession or rebellion that could threaten their control – They accuse the people that want to separate of being agents for evil outsiders.

    It doesn’t matter.

    Conservatives cannot live with leftists, their cultism and zealotry has made it impossible. And, we will not live under a globalist tyranny built around their reset agenda. Separation allows us to consolidate for defense, and protects us economically. It is the only way to ensure that we remain free.

    The globalists and the leftists will try to stop us; they can’t help themselves. They are insane, after all. This will lead to a war many of us have been expecting for quite some time. At the very least, with separation and secession we will be in the best possible position to stop them. If we remain isolated from each other, the fight will be over before it even begins.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 23:40

  • After Two Weeks Of Sleeping On Cold Marble, Congress Boots National Guard To Local Parking Garages
    After Two Weeks Of Sleeping On Cold Marble, Congress Boots National Guard To Local Parking Garages

    After two weeks of sleepless nights protecting Washington DC from an alleged inauguration threat that never materialized, thousands of National Guardsmen were booted from Congressional grounds on Thursday, where they were forced to sleep on marble floors, and have instead been forced to take their rest breaks in nearby parking garages, according to Politico.

    Photo via Politico

    The unexplained move comes after ‘dozens’ of lawmakers posed for photo ops with the troops.

    “Yesterday dozens of senators and congressmen walked down our lines taking photos, shaking our hands and thanking us for our service. Within 24 hours, they had no further use for us and banished us to the corner of a parking garage. We feel incredibly betrayed,” said one Guardsman, who said their unit was abruptly kicked out of the Dirksen Senate Office building into a nearby parking garage with no internet reception, one electrical outlet, and a two-stall bathroom for 5,000 troops.

    Photo via Politico

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    All National Guard troops were told to vacate the Capitol and nearby congressional buildings on Thursday, and to set up mobile command centers outside or in nearby hotels, another Guardsman confirmed. They were told to take their rest breaks during their 12-hour shifts outside and in parking garages, the person said.

    Prominent lawmakers from both parties took to Twitter to decry the decision and call for answers after POLITICO first reported the news Thursday night. Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Majority Leader, tweeted: “If this is true, it’s outrageous. I will get to the bottom of this.” –Politico

    In response to the report, several lawmakers have expressed (or feigned) outrage, with several offering the use of their offices to Guardsmen.

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    According to some Guardsmen who spoke with Politico, there was no clear reason given for the eviction – though one said it that it may have been over a complaint that some troops were not wearing masks, though said that wasn’t the case.

    “We have strict guidance that masks are to be worn at all times unless soldiers are eating and drinking.”

    Another Guardsman speculated that “There really may be an important reason for us to vacate and it just hasn’t been well communicated yet.

    The troops are particularly concerned about being packed in tight quarters with limited bathroom access during a pandemic. At least 100 Guardsmen have tested positive for Covid, according to two Guardsmen. Some are quarantining in hotels.

    A spokesperson previously declined to provide a specific number for troops who have tested positive for Covid. –Politico

    According to Guard spokesman Matt Murphy, “As Congress is in session and increased foot traffic and business is being conducted, Capitol Police asked the troops to move their rest area,” adding “They were temporarily relocated to the Thurgood Marshall Judicial Center garage with heat and restroom facilities. We remain an agile and flexible force to provide for the safety and security of the Capitol and its surrounding areas.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 23:20

  • Huge Interest In Pizza-Making Robot As COVID Accelerates "Social Distancing Kitchens"
    Huge Interest In Pizza-Making Robot As COVID Accelerates “Social Distancing Kitchens”

    COVID-19 will accelerate technological change that will bring the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence to many industries.

    In particular, the restaurant industry, and how one Seattle startup is automating pizza kitchens. 

    The Picnic Pizza System was rolled out at 2019’s CES technology conference in Las Vegas. The robotic pizza-maker fully automates the process of making a pizza. It can make hundreds of customized pizzas, each with different toppings, along with different sizes. 

    Precision automation allows for consistency in the pizza-making process and minimal food waste, consider food prices are skyrocketing to several year highs. 

    Picnic CEO Clayton Wood told KING-TV Seattle that the coronavirus pandemic might have been the catalyst to spur the restaurant industry to begin automating kitchens. 

    “There’s a unique labor problem in that you can’t have people working shoulder to shoulder in a kitchen, so if you want to produce volumes of food like you do for delivery, you’ve got to produce those orders quickly and with consistency,” Wood said. 

    Since the pandemic, Picnic has received large investments, allowing the startup to increase its pizza-making robot’s production. The first robot was shipped last week. 

    Wood said, “we’ve received a lot of interest from all over the foodservice sector, with large and small customers including pizza restaurants, corporate food services, ghost kitchens, food trucks, and convenience stores.”

    He also said that operators’ real benefit is not just “labor savings” but also consistency in the product, adding that it allows commercial kitchens to social distance. 

    However, he did say the robot is not intended to displace jobs but designed to support restaurants and workers in delivery and carry out.

    “It’s a ‘co-bot’ where people still work alongside the machine,” Wood said.

    Under the guise of the virus pandemic, the restaurant industry will have to adapt to strict social distancing measures enforced by governments, and one way to do this is through automating how food is prepared in kitchens. This means millions of jobs will be taken over by robots in this decade. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 23:00

  • Build Back Bitter
    Build Back Bitter

    Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

    It’s over everyone, you can sleep easy again – the party of peace, tolerance, and reconciliation is back in power. Amen. And Awomen.

    They claim they want to heal and unify the nation.

    But clearly the only way to do so is to create enemies lists and silence anyone with dissenting opinions.

    For example, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez asked,

    “Is anyone archiving these Trump sycophants for when they try to downplay or deny their complicity in the future?”

    Robert Reich, Labor Secretary under Clinton, and adviser to Obama, Tweeted,

    “When this nightmare is over, we need a Truth and Reconciliation Commission [to] name every official, politician, executive and media mogul whose greed and cowardice enabled this catastrophe.”

    Chris Hayes, an MSNBC host agreed saying, 

    “The most humane and reasonable way to deal with all these people, if we survive this, is some kind of truth and reconciliation commission.”

    And Dick Costolo, the former CEO of Twitter, said,

    “Me-first capitalists … are going to be the first people lined up against the wall and shot in the revolution. I’ll happily provide video commentary.”

    Clearly social media companies like Twitter are a big part of the efforts to unify the nation.

    Twitter deleted 70,000 accounts using the trespassing of the Capitol as an excuse.

    Amazon Web Services removed the alternative social media site Parler from its servers, while Apple and Google deleted Parler from their app stores.

    Facebook and Reddit joined the purge, feverishly removing content that they don’t want their users to see.

    Stripe, PayPal, and Visa announced they would stop processing payments to certain politicians and non-profits guilty of thought crimes.

    Yesterday I read in the completely fair and objective media that simply acknowleding this tech purge makes one a conspiracy theorist.

    Axios news wrote a segment titled, Right wing’s new conspiracy: “The silencing”.

    They went on to say that only crazy conspiracy theorists believe that there are efforts to silence conservative voices.

    In other words, if you believe what you can see with your own eyes, you’re a conspiracy theorist.

    Most recently, for example, Harvard has purged Congresswoman Elise Stefanik from its advisory board.

    Stefanik’s crime? She publicly questioned voting irregularities in the 2020 election.

    Now, some people may think that she’s a terrible person because of her beliefs. And in fairness it’s Harvard’s right to choose whoever they want for their board.

    But now there’s a petition from the woke Harvard mob to revoke her degree, effectively erasing her existence from the institution.

    They want to cancel her. Yet even merely acknowledging that this is happening now makes you a conspiracy theorist according to the media.

    The left’s cries of “de-fund the police” have turned to “fund the secret police,” as lawmakers reintroduce “domestic terror” bills to create new units under the Department of Homeland Security to monitor American “extremism”.

    But the #assassinatetrump and #killtrump hashtags that Twitter has allowed since 2016— that’s totally fine free speech!

    During the summer BLM riots, looting Target stores and burning down police stations were acts of courage.

    They even literally declared an independent autonomous zone and took over government buildings. Yet no one in the media ever used the words insurrection, sedition, or treason.

    AOC praised these mostly peaceful protests and said the entire point of them is “to make people feel uncomfortable.”

    But if you feel the slightest bit uncomfortable that 25,000 troops are in the nation’s capital, along with tanks and attack helicopters, then you’re a (you guessed it!) conspiracy theorist.

    Remember, though, ignorance is strength, so we should probably just obey the experts.

    Trust in Social Security to provide retirement. Trust the Federal Reserve to improve the economy. Trust the media to tell the truth. Trust that the tech companies will continue to allow your free speech.

    Or… as an alternative… make your own Plan B.

    *  *  *

    On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That’s why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 22:40

  • Aramco's Carbon Emissions Could Be "Nearly Double" What The Company Discloses
    Aramco’s Carbon Emissions Could Be “Nearly Double” What The Company Discloses

    It was no secret that leading up to Saudi Arabian Oil Co.’s IPO in 2019 that the company touted its low emissions compared to other producers.

    Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said while the company was doing its roadshows: “Not because our crude is cleaner than other crudes globally. It’s because of our standards. Even though our numbers are great, climate change is critical for the world.”

    But now, it appears the company may have “failed to provide a complete picture”, according to a new Bloomberg report. The report says that Aramco fails to account for emissions generated from many of its refineries and petrochemical plants. 

    Inclusive of the omissions, Bloomberg estimates that the company’s carbon footprint would “nearly double”, and that Aramco would add as much as 55 million metric tons of CO2 to its annual tally. 

    Now that investors “need to be able to put a price on the climate risks that they are running in their portfolios,” as one commodity researcher put it, the carbon footprint numbers can easily turn into a “red flag”. 

    When Bloomberg reached Aramco for questioning, the company replied: “We have a clear and deliberate path to increase the scope and details of [emissions] disclosure.” It said its current number “reflects emissions from those assets where Aramco has the accountability and ability to manage and control emissions.”

    The company gets away with its current disclosures by pointing to the process of extracting the oil in Saudi Arabia. It will often cite studies that show that extraction of Saudi oil generates the second lowest amount of emissions in the world.

    But this fails to capture the emissions that are generated from refining the crude, a crucial process for making the “black gunk” into sellable products like jet fuel or gasoline. The company instead only chooses to report emissions from facilities it wholly owns and that are inside of the kingdom.

    It can use tricky accounting to obscure the numbers because many of its refineries are joint ventures, overseas, or both. When Bloomberg accounted for those emissions, it showed a “range for 2019 emissions between 75 million tons and 113 million tons.” The company, in response, said “We do not comment on emissions on an asset-by-asset basis.”

    Those numbers would put Aramco near emissions parity with names like Exxon Mobil, despite the fact that Exxon extracted and refined about a third of what Aramco did in 2019. This means Aramco is cleaner, but not to the degree the company has led on. 

    Many companies, including Exxon and Aramco, often have more detailed forecasts for emissions internally than they disclose. But most of the time, figures for individual assets and properties stay under the radar unless prompted by a government agency, the report notes:

    The Aramco-owned Motiva refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, for example, reports annual emissions to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It has a capacity to refine more than 600,000 barrels per day and produced 5.4 million tons of emissions in 2019. Those figures weren’t included in the company’s 2019 data, since Motiva is located outside Saudi Arabia.

    Meanwhile, the ESG bug is catching up not only with U.S. investors, but also in Saudi Arabia, where its exchange recently announced plans to launch an ESG index. 

    While investors are looking for more environmentally friendly investments, Aramco is on the verge of doubling “its refining network’s capacity to handle as much as 10 million barrels a day by 2030.”

    Bloomberg notes that “much of those emissions wouldn’t have been disclosed under the company’s past reporting practices”.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 22:20

  • Honduran Caravan Blocked By Government Forces; Migrants Plan Protest Against 'Narco-Dictator' President
    Honduran Caravan Blocked By Government Forces; Migrants Plan Protest Against ‘Narco-Dictator’ President

    A caravan of Honduran migrants were stopped by the region’s security forces, denying an estimated 8,000 Hondurans an opportunity to make a northbound run for the US border in the hopes that the Biden administration would welcome them with open arms.

    The caravan was repelled by a coordinated, multi-national military operation which included Honudran forces, according to Reuters. Guatemalan security sent  who sent over 4,500 Hondurans – including more than 600 children, back to Honduras over the last week.

    According to the report, the migrants are blaming Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who has also come under fire from US prosecutors over accusations of links to drug cartels. Angry caravan participants will be holding a protest at the capital Tegucigalpa on Friday.

    Among them was 18-year-old Isaac Portillo, who said he felt so desperate upon his forced return to Honduras that he contemplated suicide.

    Like other returned migrants, Portillo’s despair quickly turned to anger. He plans to join a march on the capital Tegucigalpa on Friday – only one week after he tried to flee his shattered country.

    We’re going to oust this narco-dictator,” he said. “I already have my group ready.” –Reuters

    Earlier this month, US prosecutors accused Hernandez of taking bribes from drug traffickers, which comes after his brother was convicted of drug trafficking last year in a US court.

    Hernandez claims the accusations have originated from drug traffickers who are angry at his government’s recent crackdown on criminal networks.

    The protesters aren’t buying it, however, and have been using social media such as WhatsApp, Telegram and Facebook to call for Hernandez’s ouster.

    The angst over the caravan comes amid a perfect storm of a pandemic-driven economic contraction, and what many are calling a poor government response to back-to-back hurricanes in November that caused nearly $2 billion in damages – forcing more than 90,000 people to evacuate to emergency storm shelters.

    “All I wanted to do was find work (abroad) so I could help my family and put my little sister back in school,” said the 18-year-old Portillo, who says his family received zero support from the government after the hurricanes.

    His father had already lost his job as a security guard when pandemic-related restrictions devastated the economy and his 14-year-old sister had to abandon her studies as the family sank deeper into poverty.

    After being deported by Guatemalan authorities this week, Portillo once again found himself living under the bridge where he and his family sought refuge after their home was destroyed in November’s floods. After he said the government threatened to evict them, the family fled again, this time to a relative’s home. –Reuters

    According to Tonatiuh Guillen, the former head of Mexico’s immigration institute, suggested that ongoing frustration over the stoppage of caravans could boil over.

    “It’s a pressure cooker.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 22:00

  • Japan PM Denies Report Claiming 'Doomed' Olympics Will Be Canceled
    Japan PM Denies Report Claiming ‘Doomed’ Olympics Will Be Canceled

    Update (2150ET): Japan has denied the Times report, as Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga saying on Friday that he is ‘determined to realize the Tokyo Olympics,’ according to Reuters. Suga told parliament that he would work closely with the IOC and Tokyo.

    *  *  *

    Senior members of the Japanese government have privately concluded that the Tokyo Olympics won’t happen this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and efforts have now shifted on securing the Games for the 2032 Olympics – the next available opportunity, according to The Times, whose source added that the winter virus spike ‘tipped the balance’ and forced Japan into a state of emergency.

    According to a senior member of the ruling coalition, there is agreement that the Games, already postponed a year, are doomed. The aim now is to find a face-saving way of announcing the cancellation that leaves open the possibility of Tokyo playing host at a later date. “No one wants to be the first to say so but the consensus is that it’s too difficult,” the source said. “Personally, I don’t think it’s going to happen.” -The Times

    That said, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and the Japanese Government continue to maintain publicly that the Games can proceed – as Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga told parliament this week that “We will have full anti-infection measures in place and proceed with preparation and with a determination to achieve the Games that can deliver hope and courage throughout the world.”

    If the Olympics are indeed canceled, it would be a financial disaster for Japan, after the country spent at least $25 billion on preparations for the event – with around 75% of that coming from public funds.

    The aim now is to maintain the façade of battling determinedly to go ahead in the hope that when they are inevitably cancelled the 2032 Games will be given to Tokyo out of sympathy.

    Paris is due to host the Games in 2024 and Los Angeles has been chosen as the venue for 2028. A decision on which city will stage the Olympics in 2032 is expected to be taken by 2025. -The Times

    “Suga is not emotionally invested in the Games,” the source told The Times, adding “But they want to show that they are ready to go, so that they will get another chance in 11 years. In these circumstances, no one could really object to that.”

    The Olympics have only been canceled three times in the past; 1916, 1940 and 1944, all due to world wars. The Tokyo games were originally slated for 2020, only to be moved to 2021 after Australia and Canada announced they would not send athletes amid the pandemic.

    “If someone like President Biden was to say that US athletes cannot go, then we could say, ‘Well, now it is impossible’,” said the senior source.

    The current position of the IOC is to hold a televised Tokyo Olympics with no spectators – only athletes, which would allow the Committee to maintain its lucrative broadcast rights. The Japanese government, however, would lose out on ticket sales – causing former Primer Minister Yoshiro Mori to rule out the televised-only option.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 21:49

  • JPMorgan Tries To Slam Bitcoin Again, Fails Spectacularly
    JPMorgan Tries To Slam Bitcoin Again, Fails Spectacularly

    In its third attempt to talk down bitcoin in the past two months (see here for attempt #1, and  attempts #2), and one which may be succeeding for the time being with bitcoin sliding below $30,000 on Thursday night, erasing all of its YTD gains…

    … JPMorgan has published a report aimed at all those bitcoin investors who buy the cryptocurrency for its “diversification” benefits. And in what may come as very bad news for anyone who is buying bitcoin on the assumption that it will serve as a hedge to massively overvalued risk assets, the report published by head of cross-asset strategy John Normand, finds that not only is bitcoin “the least reliable hedge during periods of acute market stress) but because of its popularity among momentum chasing retail investors (who just refuse to HODL), it actually accentuates broad market drawdowns. Which, of course, is obvious to anyone who saw what bitcoin did during the March crash when it lost half its value in days.

    Before we go into the details of the report, JPMorgan first gives bitcoin its due (something which its CEO refused to do back in 2017 when he warned that any JPM employee caught trading bitcoin would be fired). As Normand writes, “whether cryptocurrencies are judged eventually as a financial innovation or a speculative bubble, Bitcoin has already achieved the fastest-ever price appreciation of any must-have asset to which it is often compared (chart 1), such as Gold (1970s), Japanese Equities (1980s), Tech stocks (1990s), Chinese Equities (2000s), Commodities (2000s) and FANG stocks (2010s).”

    Each of these predecessors began with a compelling narrative and a tagline (“honest money” for Gold, “Japanese economic miracle” for Nikkei, “dot-com revolution” for Nasdaq, “a billion Chinese consumers” for China Equities, “supercycle” for Commodities and “secular growth” for FANGs), and each delivered extraordinary price momentum that challenged standard valuation models at that time. Each also delivered at least one, high-volatility price crash during the price discovery process that reversed more than half the market’s previous gain. Amusingly, while the JPM strategist is basically calling all these phenomena bubbles, he amusingly admits, that “several of these markets (Gold, Nasdaq, Chinese Equities, FANGs) were later vindicated via further all-time highs.”

    Needless to say, so has bitcoin which rose above $40,000 just a few days ago, and despite its recent “crash”, it still trading at a level that was a never before seen all time high… some three weeks ago.

    So, as Normand rhetorically asks, why bother considering hedging with an asset as unconventional and high-volatility as cryptocurrencies?

    He gives a few reasons. One is that “extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus over the past year has created one of the broadest and earliest valuation problems of the past 25 years (chart 2), which creates general concerns about portfolio vulnerability to a macro or policy shock.” This can be seen in the chart below showing the near record number of markets whose valuations are more than one std deviation about their long-term average.

    In short, JPM is conceding that stocks, and other risk assets, which have market value of over $100 trillion are a bubble, one which can be pricked by any number of “spoilers.” These spoilers range from somewhat familiar ones such as an inability to tame COVID, a destabilizing rise in inflation, a debt-related aftershock, significant regulatory tightening, renewed US-China or US-North Korea conflicts; to the as-yet unseen ones such as an economically debilitating cyberattack or an economically- significant climate catastrophe in a large economy. Another reason to hedge with bitcoin is that the collapse in DM Bond yields to negative levels in Japan and Europe and to only 1% in the US has limited their role as a defensive hedges in global portfolios and forced investors to focus on a range of second-best substitutes across Equities and FICC (Quality stocks, EM Bonds FX hedged, USD vs EM FX, JPY vs any currency, Gold), with cryptocurrencies considered by some to be the private and digital alternative to Gold.

    Amusingly, even in a report which seeks to debunks bitcoin’s diversification abilities, the JPM analyst writes that “Bitcoin improves long-term portfolio efficiency, but its contribution will probably diminish as its mainstreaming increases its correlation with cyclical assets. And crypto continues to rank as the least reliable hedge during periods of acute market stress.

    Sidestepping the fact that anyone who bought bitcoin and held over the past several years is now exorbitantly rich (and with zero concerns about bitcoin’s diversification capabilities), Normand then observes that developments “over the past year and particularly during the COVID-19 recession, have confirmed this view on the distinction between long-term efficiency and short-term risk management. As a stand-alone asset, cryptocurrencies remain several times more volatile than core asset markets, with 3M realized volatility of 90% compared to about 20% on US Equities and Gold” (chart 3 above).

    But herein lies the problem, because when coupled with extraordinary returns in some years, crypto has often generated a much higher Sharpe ratio on average than core markets like Equities or hedge assets like Commodities in general and Gold specifically (chart 7).

    Obviously, these averages when cryptos makes tremendous gains, obscure stretches like 2019-20, when crypto proves less efficient than its nearest competitor Gold. Thus, according to JPM the debate over whether Bitcoin or Gold can deliver superior volatility-adjusted returns remains unresolved, unlike some other quite reliable relationships informed by decades of performance trends. Amusingly, according to JPM, US High Yield Credit, for example, “is almost always more efficient than Equities for taking exposure to the US corporate earnings cycle (chart 8), while EM Corporates (CEMBI) and Sovereigns (EMBIG) almost always dominate Local Currency Bonds (GBI-EM in USD terms) for trading EM cycles. And, of course, those who trade any of these non-bitcoin assets would likely end up paying JPM a hefty commission on these trades, whereas purchase of bitcoin tend to make the likes of Coinbase richer. Which, a cynical person, may say is the reason behind JPM’s continued bashing of cryptos.

    But we digress. So in its latest attempt to denigrate bitcoin, JPM then goes on to point out that far from a viable risk hedge, “the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies – particularly with retail investors – appears to be raising its correlation with all cyclical assets (Equities, Credit, Commodities, the EM complex). If sustained, this development could erode diversification value over time.”

    True… but said “mainstreaming” of crypto will also push its price higher. Much higher, especially considering just how narrow its penetration is among both institutional investors and the broader investing public. So if one is asked if they would be willing to stick with a few harrowing roller-coaster rides – with zero diversification to such other bubble assets as stocks – if the endgame is bitcoin above $100,000, we are confident that absolutely everyone would respond affirmatively.

    What is even more amusing, is that in the very next sentence the JPM strategist seems to observe a fact that refutes his own conclusion, to wit:

    Table 1 refreshes correlations amongst cryptocurrencies (proxied by Bitcoin), major asset classes and conventional portfolio hedges (Treasuries, TIPS, Gold and Yen). Measured over a five year sample (top half of table), cryptocurrencies’ co-movement with all markets remains low and seems to highlight their potential diversification value. Indeed, Bitcoin’s correlation coefficients range from 0 to 0.2 and would seem to position it better than the Yen or Gold for hedging purposes.

    Which is odd since the whole purpose of the JPM paper is to show that bitcoin is not a good hedge and yet, lo and behold, it turns out to be the best hedge, even if over the past year these correlations have doubled or tripled, coinciding with surging interest in access products such as the Grayscale BTC Fund (chart 10). And yet, even after their rise, JPM still finds that “many pairwise correlations remain moderate (around 0.4)”, which again confirms that bitcoin is arguably the best hedge around. Still this is “concerning” to Normand who notes that “this trend bears watching.” Sure… as does bitcoin’s ascent from 0 to $40,000 in just a few short years, making billionaires out of all its early adopters.

    Perhaps realizing that he is not helping his own argument, Normand then cuts to the chase and asks if bitcoin will act as a defensive asset and rise (or remain flat) when stocks selloff. Not surprisingly, he finally finds something that “validates” his thesis:

    For tactical investors focused on risks that could crystalize over the next year, the better test of hedge effectiveness is whether a defensive or quasi-defensive asset rallies when Equities experience a material drawdown of perhaps 10% on Global Equities. On this measure, Bitcoin ranks 7th out of 10 alternatives, including: US Treasuries, USD vs EM Currencies, JPY vs USD, CHF vs EUR, Gold, S&P Quality stocks vs Value, EM Local Currency Bonds and UG High Grade. The first five in this list (Treasuries through Gold) are the most conventional and could be backtested further over at least two decades. The last two (EM Bonds with an FX hedge, US High Grade Credit) are potential, emerging hedges on a view that the COVID recession has sponsored two regime changes that alter these asset classes’ correlation with Equities during a crisis. One is that many EM central banks (though of moderate-debt economies) will cut interest rates, and the other is the Fed will buy High Grade Credit. The risk-return properties of these two markets will not approximate what Treasuries delivered when yields were higher and therefore offered greater offsets to declining stock markets during a crisis. But the behavior of EM Bonds and HG Credit could still change enough post-COVID to qualify them as potential diversifiers in a world with few good options.

    Here, finally, Normand has successfully goalseeked a chart that fits his narrative, and notes that “for each of these assets, chart 13, chart 14 and table 2 show returns and success rates (the percentage of Equity drawdowns in which the hedge rallied) during the 20 largest Global Equity corrections of the past decade. Bitcoin ranks as the worst in terms of median returns (-5%) and the third worst in terms of success rate (42%).”

    Ok so bitcoin sells off as much as or more than stocks do during risk off periods. But why is that any news? And why does JPM even care about bitcoin’s diversification abilities, when instead one should look at it from a very different lens: bitcoin – and all crypto – are merely extremely volatile, ultra-high beta assets which rise much more than stocks during times of massive liquidity injection and drop at or near the pace that stocks drop when liquidity is withdrawn. Over the long run, this means that bitcoin will always win. There is no advanced calculus that one needs to figure this out.

    In fact, the best explanation of what is going on – and one that JPMorgan will never admit – came from Howard Wang, a former Bridgewater analyst, who put is simply: “Bitcoin Is A Giant Bubble… But The Global Fiat System Is An Even Bigger Bubble.” In fact, Wang’s short note is far more relevant than Normand’s meandering ramblings. Here’s what he said:

    Investors are forced to hold $18 trillion of negative yielding debt while $trillions are being printed all around the world. Investors are drowning and are grabbing onto cryptocurrencies as a lifeline.

    While the sustained low yields will increase prices and suppress expected returns across all markets, many investors will choose the unknown expected returns of risky assets over the guaranteed losses in bonds. Like panicked prey chased by predators, investors prefer to hide in markets that either have no fundamental metrics, like Bitcoin, or assets with growth stories that leave ample room to imagination, like Tesla.

    In the short-term, there is still a lot of dry powder from stimulus checks and some institutions are also making the leap into the crypto space. So this Bitcoin party could continue as long as rates remain low and the printing press hot.

    Bitcoin is the flip side of the same coin as fiat currencies, pun intended. Its long-term fate depends on the future of our fiat system. Since the 1980s, deflationary pressures have suppressed interest rates and ultimately necessitated money printing around the world. As long as this trend continues, investors will run away from guaranteed losses in government bonds. Capital will flee up the risk spectrum, pushing up prices, dropping yields and producing asset bubbles along the way.

    As long as the world is flooded with money and safe assets offer poor compensation, Bitcoin will be relevant. Volatility and asset bubbles will be a fact of life. Calling the tops of these bubbles will be difficult because the fiat currency yard stick by which we measure prices is itself in a bubble.

    That’s all one really needs to know, and any attempts to talk down bitcoin – as JPMorgan has been steadfastly doing for the past few months, whether with hopes of buying some lower or merely talking bitcoin holders out of the asset and transferring them to more conventional holdings where JPM can charge a commission – will prove futile as long as central banks keep rates at zero and inject hundreds of billions of liquidity (while massively diluting existing fiat) into the system. It’s as simple as that.

    Actually, buying bitcoin does provide one extra, and absolutely critical, benefit: as even JPMorgan admits, it is the perfect hedge to the financial collapse that always follows such periods of unprecedented monetary experimentation and runaway money printing:

    Relative to any other asset class or portfolio hedge, cryptocurrencies would uniquely protect portfolios against a simultaneous loss of faith in a country’s currency and its payments system, because they are produced and they circulate outside conventional and regulated channels (chart 6).

    And, as Normand concludes: as insurance (or a lottery ticket) against dystopia, some exposure to these assets could be always justified irrespective of liquidity and volatility concerns.

    Well, in this insane world where everyone should be seeking insurance against “dystopia”, we would be delighted to own as much of the cryptocurrency as we possibly can, “irrespective of liquidity and volatility concerns”. So just like your boss back in 2017, thanks for making the decisive case for bitcoin yet again, John.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 21:40

  • Federal Court Blocks Obamacare Mandate Forcing Doctors To Perform Transgender Surgery
    Federal Court Blocks Obamacare Mandate Forcing Doctors To Perform Transgender Surgery

    Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times,

    A federal court has ruled to protect some doctors and health care providers from being penalized for refusing to perform gender transition procedures on the grounds of religious belief.

    In a decision a day before Joe Biden took the oath of office, United States District Court Chief Judge Peter D. Welte from North Dakota granted a request to block the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) from enforcing an Obamacare mandate that compels medical professionals and healthcare providers to perform gender transition services.

    In 2016, the HHS issued a rule interpreting Section 1557 of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), which prohibits certain forms of discrimination in healthcare, including sex discrimination.

    The rule prohibited insurers and third party administrations from offering or administer health plans with gender-transition exclusions. The regulation also prohibited a healthcare provider from refusing to offer medical services for gender transitions if that provider offered comparable services to others.

    The rule did not provide an exemption for religious grounds, arguing that Title IX’s religious exemptions only apply to an educational context. The department at the time also argued that “a blanket religious exemption could result in a denial or delay in the provision of health care to individuals and in discouraging individuals from seeking necessary care.”

    The department instead explained that it would consider religious exemptions on an individualized case-by-case basis for claims under the 1993 Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA).

    An order of Catholic nuns, a Catholic university, and Catholic healthcare organizations challenged the mandate under the RFRA, while the state of North Dakota joined the lawsuit to challenge the mandate under a federal law known as the Administrative Procedure Act that governs rulemaking by administrative agencies.

    The mandate was previously put on hold by a federal judge in North Dakota and was struck down in 2019 by another federal court in Texas. Under the Trump administration, HHS passed a new rule aimed at walking back the mandate. However, the 2020 rule was blocked by separate challenges in other courts.

    Welte said in his decision that the plaintiffs have shown “an entitlement” for injunctive relief, saying that a violation under the RFRA is comparable to the deprivation of a First Amendment right.

    “The Catholic healthcare entities’ refusal to perform or cover gender-transition procedures is predicated on an exercise of their religious beliefs protected by the First Amendment,” Welte said (pdf).

    “Absent an injunction, [plantiffs] will either be ‘forced to violate their sincerely held religious beliefs’ by performing and covering gender-transition procedures ‘or to incur severe monetary penalties for refusing to comply,’” he added.

    Attorney Luke Goodrich, senior counsel at Becket, a religious organization representing the plaintiffs, said the court’s decision “recognizes our medical heroes’ right to practice medicine in line with their conscience and without politically motivated interference from government bureaucrats.”

    “These religious doctors and hospitals provide top-notch medical care to all patients for everything from cancer to the common cold,” Goodrich said in a statement.

    “All they’re asking is that they be allowed to continue serving their patients as they’ve done for decades, without being forced to perform controversial, medically unsupported procedures that are against their religious beliefs and potentially harmful to their patients. The Constitution and federal law require no less.”

    During his campaign, Biden had vowed to push LGBTQ rights as part of his agenda, including coverage for care related to gender transitioning and surgery. He signed an executive order on his first day as president to prevent discrimination on the basis of gender identity and sexual discrimination.

    Xavier Becerra, who has been tapped by Biden to lead the HHS, had previously argued in favor of using taxpayers’ money to provide transgender individuals in North Carolina with coverage for gender transitioning surgery and treatment.

    Some religious liberty advocates and people of faith are worried that the religious freedom protections implemented by the Trump administration could be rolled back under a Biden administration.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 21:20

  • American Hotels Experienced Worst Year Ever
    American Hotels Experienced Worst Year Ever

    According to STR, Inc, a hotel industry market data firm, 2020 was absolutely the worst year on record for hotels as industrywide profits fell to zero, as the virus pandemic and resulting government-enforced social distancing measures kept travelers at home. 

    STR’s latest report said the US hotel occupancy rate was 44% for the year, down from 66% in 2019. This was the lowest occupancy rate on record. In an earlier STR report, we noted weeks ago that the industry had one billion unsold room nights for the first time, surpassing the record of 786 million in 2009.

    Even though S&P Global Ratings warned a few months back that the hotel industry’s recovery may not occur until 2023, STR now believes a recovery in occupancy rates back to 2019 levels may not occur until 2024. 

    Best Western CEO David Kong recently told CNN that “If we don’t get a vaccine soon and business doesn’t return, it’s going to get much worse.”

    With the vaccine rollout slower than anticipated, along with a rampant virus, leisure travel will most likely remain depressed in the first quarter of 2021. 

    Commercial-real estate experts at Trepp outlined last month that the overall credit performance of commercial real estate loans tied to hotels continues to show “pandemic related stress.” 

    Even with the industry crushed by the pandemic, stimulus, vaccine hope, and the reopening trade have backstopped BBB- tranche of the CMBX Series 9 index (overly exposed to malls and hotels) from falling lower. 

    There’s no real timetable to say when corporate travelers will start booking hotel rooms again, considering the proliferation of work-at-home and Zoom calls. There could be a permanent decline in traveling due to the virus pandemic, resulting in an unprecedented wave of hotel foreclosures. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 21:00

  • The Coming New Order
    The Coming New Order

    Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    For many years, a handful of people have postulated that those who control industry, finance and governments are essentially the same people – a cabal of sorts that have, over generations, solidified their relationships in order to gain greater wealth and power, whilst systematically making things ever more difficult for the free market to exist.

    But why should this be? Surely, corporate leaders are more ardently capitalist than anyone else?

    Well, on the surface, that might appear to make sense, but once a significant position of power has been achieved, those who have achieved it recognize that, since they’ve already reached the top, the primary concern changes. From then on, the primary concern becomes the assurance that no others are able to climb so high as they have.

    At that point, they realise that their foremost effort needs to be a push toward corporatism – the merger of power between government and business.

    This is a natural marriage. The political world is a parasitic one. It relies on a continual flow of funding. The world of big business is a study in exclusivity – the ability to make it impossible for pretenders to the throne to arise. So, big business provides the cash; government provides protective legislation that ensures preference for those at the top.

    In most cases, this second half of the equation does not mean a monopoly for just one corporation, but a monopoly for a cabal – an elite group of corporations.

    This corporatist relationship has deep roots in the US, going back over one hundred years. To this day, those elite families who took control of oil, steel, banking, motor vehicles and other industries a century ago, soon created a takeover of higher learning (universities), health (Big Pharma) and “Defense” (the military-industrial complex).

    Through legislation, the US was then transformed to ensure that all these interests would be catered to, creating generations of both control and profit.

    Of course, “profit” should not be an evil word, but under crony capitalism, it becomes an abomination – a distortion of the free market and the death of laissez faire economics.

    Certainly, this sort of collectivism is not what Karl Marx had in mind when he daydreamed about a workers’ paradise in which business leaders retained all the risk and responsibility of creating and building businesses, whilst the workers had the final word as to how the revenue would be distributed to the workers themselves.

    Mister Marx failed in being objective enough to understand that if the business creator took all the risk and responsibility but gave up the ability to decide what happened to the revenue, he’d never bother to open a business. Even a shoeshine boy would reject such a notion and elect to go on the dole, rather than work.

    Mister Marx sought more to bring down those who were successful than to raise up those who were not, yet he unwittingly created a new idea – corporate collectivism – in which the very people he sought to debase used the appeal of collectivist rhetoric to diminish both the freedoms and wealth of the average worker.

    On the surface, this might appear to be a hard sell – to get the hoi polloi into the net – but in fact, it’s quite easy and has perennially been effective.

    Hitler’s New Order was such a construct – the promise to return Germany to greatness and the German people to prosperity through increasingly draconian laws, warfare and an economic revolving door between government and industry.

    Of course, a major influx of capital was required – billions of dollars – and this was eagerly provided by US industry and banks. Heads of New York banks not only funded Nazi industry; families such as the Fords, Rockefellers, Morgans, etc., sat on the boards of German corporations.

    The Nazi effort failed, as they underestimated the Russian will to fight to the death. (Eighty percent of all German Army deaths were due to the Russian campaign.)

    But those in New York were able to regroup and be first in the queue for the restructuring of German industry after the war and, ultimately, profited handsomely.

    But most significantly, the idea of corporatist collectivism did not die. Even before the war, the same group of families and corporations had drawn up the plan for Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal.

    Mister Roosevelt was a dyed-in-the-wool Wall Street man and a director of New York banks. In the 1930s and early 1940s, he created, as president, a revolving door that favoured large corporations, whilst the average American was consciously kept at the subsistence level through government entitlements.

    The scam worked. Shortsighted Americans not only were grateful; they deified him for it.

    Likewise, John Kennedy’s New Frontier sought to revitalize the concept, as did Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society: Give the little people entitlements that keep them little. Tax smaller businesses and create a flow of tax dollars to the elite industries, who, in turn, provide monetary favours to the political class.

    The Green New Deal is merely the latest corporate collectivist scheme on the list.

    Corporate collectivism can be defined as a system in which the few who hold the legal monopolies of finance and industry gain an overriding control over all others, and in so doing, systematically extract wealth from them.

    Today, this system has become so refined that, although the average American has a flat screen TV and an expensive smartphone, he cannot raise $400 to cover an emergency that occurs in his life. He is, for all practical purposes, continually bankrupt, but still functioning in a zombie-like existence of continual dependency.

    This, on the surface, may not seem all that dangerous, but those who cannot buy their way out of a small emergency are easily controlled. Just create an emergency such as an uber-virus and that fact will be illuminated quickly.

    In order to maximise compliance in a population, maximise their dependence.

    As stated above, this effort has been in play for generations. But it is now reaching a crescendo. It’s now up to speed in most of the former Free World and those who hold the strings are ready for a major step forward in corporate collectivism.

    In the coming year, we shall see dramatic changes appearing at a dizzying rate. Capital controls, migration controls, internal movement controls, tax increases, confiscation of assets and the removal of “inalienable” rights will all be coming into effect – so quickly that before the populace can even grasp the latest restrictions, new ones will be heaped on.

    As this unfolds, we shall witness the erosion of the nation-state. Controls will come from global authorities, such as the UN, the IMF and the WEF. Organisations that have no formal authority over nations will increasingly be calling the shots and people will wonder how this is possible. Elected officials will increasingly become mere bagmen, doing the bidding of an unelected ruling class.

    The changes that take place will be not unlike a blanket that is thrown over humanity.

    The question then will be whether to, a) give in to this force, b) to fight it and most likely fall victim to it, or c) seek a means to fall outside the perimeter of the blanket.

    *  *  *

    Unfortunately most people have no idea what really happens when a government goes out of control, let alone how to prepare… The coming economic and political crisis is going to be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we’ve seen in the past. That’s exactly why New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video. Click here to watch it now.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 20:40

  • Sequoia To Pay Interested Employees In Bitcoin
    Sequoia To Pay Interested Employees In Bitcoin

    With increasingly more institutions converting some (or in the case of MicroStrategy, most) of their cash equivalents into bitcoin, one key spoke of an all-bitcoin corporate ecosystem remained elusive: actual payment to employees in bitcoin. That changed today when Sequoia Holdings, not the hedge fund but the “employee-owned provider of high-end software development and engineering services centered on improving the analytic, collection, collaboration and sharing of data”, announced that it is now giving employees the option to receive a portion of their salary in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

    “We’re excited to offer the members of our team this new benefit,” said T. Richard Stroupe, Jr., co-founder and CEO of Sequoia. “Many of our employees are enthusiastic supporters of cryptocurrency, and we’re happy to help them gain exposure to this trillion-dollar asset class.”

    Under the new program, Sequoia employees may elect to defer a portion of their salary into Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, or the Ethereum platform’s ether. The company is partnering with a third-party payroll processing firm to withhold taxes and convert the remainder into cryptocurrency, which will be held in a digital wallet administered by the payroll processor.

    The mechanism is similar to how an employee would defer a portion of his or her salary toward a 401(k) retirement savings plan. In this case, though, the deferral is after tax.

    Russell Okung, an offensive tackle for the Carolina Panthers of the National Football League, recently made headlines for becoming the first professional football player to receive a portion of his salary in Bitcoin, in much the same way that Sequoia employees may elect to.

    “Cryptocurrency has emerged as an important alternative to traditional investments like stocks and bonds,” Stroupe said. “We’re proud to give the members of our team the ability to easily invest in cryptocurrency and build their savings.”

    Of course, any employees who chose to be paid in bitcoin are urged to have nerves of steel because while the cryptocurrency has exploded in the past year, it has suffered a sharp drop in the past few days, which for those with little patience could serve to quickly tame any enthusiasm of continued payment in the cryptocurrency.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 20:20

  • Argentine Central Bank's Sudden Dollar Shortage Sparks Fears Of Mass Corporate Credit Crisis
    Argentine Central Bank’s Sudden Dollar Shortage Sparks Fears Of Mass Corporate Credit Crisis

    Despite Emerging Markets’ recent surge higher on the heels of a dumping dollar and massive global liquidity injections, at least one country is facing crisis rather than crescendo.

    MSCI Emerging Market stocks have soared…

    Source: Bloomberg

    YPF, a 99-year-old oil company that some have called Argentina’s flaghship company, is threatening a large-scale default on its bonds after the central bank refused to let YPF buy the full amount of dollars it needed to pay notes coming due in March.

    “The central bank’s message is pretty clear,” said Santiago Barros Moss, a TPCG analyst in Buenos Aires.

    “There just aren’t enough dollars in Argentina for corporates right now.”

    The last few months have seen the peso collapse (despite a weaker USDollar) to 86/USD – a record low – making the dollar-debt payments for Argentina’s corporations exceedingly expensive.

    Source: Bloomberg

    And that – along with the fact that global oil markets have collapsed – led YPF to send a press release in the dead of night laying out a plan to saddle creditors with losses in a debt exchange.

    Implicit in its statement, as Bloomberg reports, was a threat that traders immediately understood – failure to reach a restructuring deal could lead to a flat-out suspension of debt payments – and they began frantically unloading the shale driller’s bonds the next morning. Today, some two weeks later, the securities trade as low as 56 cents on the dollar.

    “The central bank’s decision really put YPF between a rock and a hard place,” said Lorena Reich, a corporate-debt analyst at Lucror Analytics in Buenos Aires.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Argentina’s cash crunch couldn’t come at a worse time for YPF, which was already facing a drop in demand because of the pandemic.

    The task is even more urgent as the South American winter approaches with YPF unable to meet domestic gas demand, meaning Argentina will have to boost imports – and fork over precious hard currency – in the middle of a global spike in prices.

    But, as Bloomberg notes, the central bank’s refusal to sell YPF the dollars it needs to pay its obligations, despite the company’s earlier efforts to refinance its short-term debt, is a bad sign for all overseas corporate bonds from Argentina, according to the financial services firm TPCG.

    The concern is that if the country’s flagship company isn’t eligible to buy dollars at the official exchange rate as the bank seeks to hold onto hard-currency reserves, no one else will be either.

    And this, among other reasons, is why The Fed must keep injecting dollars into the world… or face this kind of crisis from DMs as well as EMs.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 19:40

  • Senate Dems File Ethics Complaint Against Cruz, Hawley For Objecting To Electoral Results
    Senate Dems File Ethics Complaint Against Cruz, Hawley For Objecting To Electoral Results

    Congressional Democrats – who objected to the electoral results for the last three GOP presidents – have filed an ethics complaint against GOP Senators. Ted Cruz (TX) and Josh Hawley (MO) for objecting to the Electoral College results.

    The Senate Ethics Committee should investigate their conduct to fully understand their role. The actions of which we know demand an investigation and a determination whether disciplinary action is warranted. Until then, a cloud of uncertainty will hang over them and over this body,” wrote Democratic Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (RI), Ron Wyden (OR), Tima Smith (MN), Richard Blumenthal (CT), Mazie Hirono (HI), Tim Kaine (VA) and Sherrod Brown (OH).

    The complaint wants the Ethics Committee to investigate whether Cruz and Hawley failed to “[p]ut loyalty to the highest moral principles and to country above loyalty to persons, party, or Government department,” or if they engaged in “improper conduct reflecting on the Senate” linked to the January 6 Capitol ‘riot.’

    The Democratic senators also outlined several questions they believed should be probed as part of an Ethics Committee investigation including if they were in touch with coordinators for the rally, if they encouraged any “insurrectionist” acts or if they “engaged in criminal conduct, or unethical or improper behavior.”

    “While it was within Senators’ rights to object to the electors, the conduct of Senators Cruz and Hawley, and potentially others, went beyond that,” they wrote in the letter to Ethics Committee leadership. 

    Cruz and Hawley, two potential 2024 presidential contenders, have denounced the mob that breached the Capitol but they’ve also stood by their decisions to object to the Electoral College results from Arizona and Pennsylvania, respectively. –The Hill

    During the counting of electoral votes, Cruz objected to Arizona’s results, while Hawley objected to Pennsylvania’s results following the Capitol attack, when a group of Trump supporters and at least one prominent member of BLM breached the Capitol building and occupied it for a brief period of time before leaving on their own.

    The Democratic Senators are also asking the Ethics Committee to “offer recommendations for strong disciplinary action, including up to expulsion or censure, if warranted by the facts uncovered.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 19:20

  • McConnell Lays Out Trump Impeachment Trial Timeline As GOP Rep Files Articles Against Biden
    McConnell Lays Out Trump Impeachment Trial Timeline As GOP Rep Files Articles Against Biden

    While the left is split between wanting to hammer the final nail in Trump’s coffin (through the Senate impeachment trial) and tending to its aggressive agenda of new laws, spending, and government control, U.S. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) issued a statement today regarding his proposed timeline for the first phases of an impeachment trial of former president Trump.

    “I have sent a proposed timeline for the first phases of the upcoming impeachment trial to Leader Schumer and look forward to continuing to discuss it with him.

    “Senate Republicans are strongly united behind the principle that the institution of the Senate, the office of the presidency, and former President Trump himself all deserve a full and fair process that respects his rights and the serious factual, legal, and constitutional questions at stake. Given the unprecedented speed of the House’s process, our proposed timeline for the initial phases includes a modest and reasonable amount of additional time for both sides to assemble their arguments before the Senate would begin to hear them.

    “At this time of strong political passions, Senate Republicans believe it is absolutely imperative that we do not allow a half-baked process to short-circuit the due process that former President Trump deserves or damage the Senate or the presidency.”

    Specifically, Leader McConnell shared the following proposed pre-trial timeline with the Republican Conference today:

    When the articles arrive, the House Managers would exhibit (read) the articles to the Senate, Senators would be sworn in the Members as the Court of Impeachment, and would issue a summons to former President Trump.  While we do not know what day the Managers will choose, Leader McConnell has asked for this to occur on Thursday, January 28. 

    Former President Trump would have one week from that day to answer the articles of impeachment (February 4).  The House’s pre-trial brief would also be due then.

    The President would then have one week from the day he submits his answer to submit his pre-trial brief (February 11).  That means former president Trump has fourteen total days from when we issue the summons to write his pre-trial brief.  The House would also submit its replication on this date.

    The House would then have two days to submit their rebuttal pre-trial brief (February 13).  

    This approach tracks the structure of the Clinton and Trump pre-trial processes. 

    The periods between due dates are longer than in 1999 or 2020, but this is necessary because of the House’s unprecedented timeline.

    So far we have not seen any response from Senate Democrat Leader Schumer, but we do note the timing is ironic as (in what appears to be more PR stunt than anything else) freshman Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announced via Twitter video Thursday that she’s filed articles of impeachment on President Joe Biden.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As SaraACarter.com’s Jennie Taer reports, Rep. Greene earlier pledged on Newsmax on January 13 to do so on the first day of Biden’s presidency, as reported.

    “We cannot have a President of the United States that is willing to abuse the power of the office of the presidency and be easily bought off by foreign governments, foreign Chinese energy companies, Ukrainian energy companies. So on January 21st, I will be filing articles of impeachment on Joe Biden,” said Rep. Greene.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As w3e noted, while this is unlikely to proceed, that did not stop Democratic Reps such as Al Green from incessantly posting articles during Trump’s term (as early as May 2017).

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 19:11

  • Intel Released Earnings Early Because Hacker "Stole Financially Sensitive Information" From Its Website
    Intel Released Earnings Early Because Hacker “Stole Financially Sensitive Information” From Its Website

    Something unexpected happened at exactly 3:47pm this afternoon: that’s when wire services like Bloomberg reported Intel’s Q4 financial results, some 13 minutes ahead of the scheduled release time.

    Some speculated that the early release was a fat finger from an overzealous intern who sent the news to Businesswire a few minutes early. Others, such as us, joked that Intel just couldn’t contain its excitement at the impressive earnings report which sent the formerly beaten down stock surging to its June highs.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Turns out it was neither, because according to the FT, Intel said it was the victim of a hacker who stole financially sensitive information from its corporate website on Thursday, prompting the company to release its earnings statement ahead of schedule.

    CFO George Davis told the Financial Times that the chipmaker believed an attacker had obtained advanced details about a strong earnings report it was due to publish after the market closed; upon discovery of the problem, Intel published its formal earnings announcement with the official release coming out six minutes before the market closed.

    “An infographic was hacked off of our PR newsroom site,” Mr Davis said. “We put [our earnings] out as soon as we were aware.”

    The CFO said that the leak was the result of an illicit action that had not involved any unintentional disclosure by the company itself.

    An Intel spokesperson added: “We were notified that our infographic was circulating outside the company. I do not believe it was published. We are continuing to investigate this matter.”

    Actually it was published, and are speculating, it appears that the reason Bloomberg managed to report the company’s results even before the 6 minute early release is because it managed to scrape the hacked Intel’s inforgraphic at 348pm, which laid out the company’s key highlights.

    As noted earlier, the earnings revealed an unexpectedly strong bounce in Intel’s sales of chips for PCs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, as more people bought laptops to work and study from home, as well as more powerful gaming PCs. Specifically, the volume of PC chips Intel sold jumped 33% in the quarter, a period in which tech research group IDC said the number of machines shipped globally had risen by 26 per cent, to cap the strongest year for the PC industry in a decade.

    Although Intel’s revenue slipped 1 per cent in the fourth quarter, to $20bn, that was $2.5bn ahead of Wall Street expectations. Revenue from PC chips rose 9 per cent, to $10.9bn.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 19:00

  • 2021: More Troubles Likely
    2021: More Troubles Likely

    Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

    Most people expect that the economy of 2021 will be an improvement from 2020. I don’t think so. Perhaps COVID-19 will be somewhat better, but other aspects of the economy will likely be worse.

    Back in November 2020, I showed a chart illustrating the path that energy consumption seems to be on. The sharp downturn in energy consumption has occurred partly because the cost of oil, gas and coal production tends to rise, since the portion that is least expensive to extract and ship tends to be removed first.

    At the same time, prices that energy producers are able to charge their customers don’t rise enough to compensate for their higher costs. Ultimate customers are ordinary wage earners, and their wages are not escalating as rapidly as fossil fuel production and delivery costs. It is the low selling price of fossil fuels, relative to the rising cost of production, that causes a collapse in the production of fossil fuels. This is the crisis we are now facing.

    Figure 1. Estimate by Gail Tverberg of World Energy Consumption from 1820 to 2050. Amounts for earliest years based on estimates in Vaclav Smil’s book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospectsand BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy for the years 1965 to 2019. Energy consumption for 2020 is estimated to be 5% below that for 2019. Energy for years after 2020 is assumed to fall by 6.6% per year, so that the amount reaches a level similar to renewables only by 2050. Amounts shown include more use of local energy products (wood and animal dung) than BP includes.

    With lower energy consumption, many things tend to go wrong at once: The rich get richer while the poor get poorer. Protests and uprisings become more common. The poorer citizens and those already in poor health become more vulnerable to communicable diseases. Governments feel a need to control their populations, partly to keep down protests and partly to prevent the further spread of disease.

    If we look at the situation shown on Figure 1 on a per capita basis, the graph doesn’t look quite as steep, because lower energy consumption tends to bring down population. This reduction in population can come from many different causes, including illnesses, fewer babies born, less access to medical care, inadequate clean water and starvation.

    Figure 2. Amounts shown in Figure 1, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison for earliest years and by 2019 United Nations population estimates for years to 2020. Future population estimated to be falling half as quickly as energy supply is falling in Figure 1. World population drops to 2.8 billion by 2050.

    What Is Ahead for 2021?

    In many ways, it is good that we really don’t know what is ahead for 2021. All aspects of GDP production require energy consumption. A huge drop in energy consumption is likely to mean disruption in the world economy of varying types for many years to come. If the situation is likely to be bad, many of us don’t really want to know how bad.

    We know that many civilizations have had the same problem that the world does today. It usually goes by the name “Collapse” or “Overshoot and Collapse.” The problem is that the population becomes too large for the resource base. At the same time, available resources may degrade (soils erode or lose fertility, mines deplete, fossil fuels become harder to extract). Eventually, the economy becomes so weakened that any minor disturbance – attack from an outside army, or shift in weather patterns, or communicable disease that raises the death rate a bit – threatens to bring down the whole system. I see our current economic problem as much more of an energy problem than a COVID-19 problem.

    We know that when earlier civilizations collapsed, the downfall tended not to happen all at once. Based on an analysis by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov in their book, Secular Cycles, economies tended to first hit a period of stagflation, for perhaps 40 or 50 years. In a way, today’s economy has been in a period of stagflation since the 1970s, when it became apparent that oil was becoming more difficult to extract. To hide the problem, increasing debt was issued at ever-lower interest rates.

    According to Turchin and Nefedov, the stagflation stage eventually moves into a steeper “crisis” period, marked by overturned governments, debt defaults, and falling population. In the examples analyzed by Turchin and Nefedov, this crisis portion of the cycle took 20 to 50 years. It seems to me that the world economy reached the beginning of the crisis period in 2020 when lockdowns in response to the novel coronavirus pushed the weakened world economy down further.

    The examples examined by Turchin and Nefedov occurred in the time period before fossil fuels were widely used. It may very well be that the current collapse takes place more rapidly than those in the past, because of dependency on international supply lines and an international banking system. The world economy is also very dependent on electricity–something that may not last. Thus, there seems to be a chance that the crisis phase may last a shorter length of time than 20 to 50 years. It likely won’t last only a year or two, however. The economy can be expected to fall apart, but somewhat slowly. The big questions are, “How slowly?” “Can some parts continue for years, while others disappear quickly?”

    Some Kinds of Things to Expect in 2021 (and beyond)

    [1] More overturned governments and attempts at overturned governments.

    With increasing wage disparity, there tend to be more and more unhappy workers at the bottom end of the wage distribution. At the same time, there are likely to be people who are unhappy with the need for high taxes to try to fix the problems of the people at the bottom end of the wage distribution. Either of these groups can attempt to overturn their government if the government’s handling of current problems is not to the group’s liking.

    [2] More debt defaults.

    During the stagflation period that the world economy has been through, more and more debt has been added at ever-lower interest rates. Much of this huge amount of debt relates to property that is no longer of much use (airplanes without passengers; office buildings that are no longer needed because people now work at home; restaurants without enough patrons; factories without enough orders). Governments will try to avoid defaults as long as possible, but eventually, the unreasonableness of this situation will prevail. The impact of defaults can be expected to affect many parts of the economy, including banks, insurance companies and pension plans.

    [3] Extraordinarily slow progress in defeating COVID-19.

    There seems to be a significant chance that COVID-19 is lab-made. In fact, the many variations of COVID-19 may also be lab made. Researchers around the world have been studying “Gain of Function” in viruses for more than 20 years, allowing the researchers to “tweak” viruses in whatever way they desire. There seem to be several variations on the original virus now. A suicidal/homicidal researcher could decide to “take out” as many other people as possible, by creating yet another variation on COVID-19.

    To make matters worse, immunity to coronaviruses in general doesn’t seem to be very long lasting. An October 2020 article says, 35-year study hints that coronavirus immunity doesn’t last long. Analyzing other corona viruses, it concluded that immunity tends to disappear quite quickly, leading to an annual cycle of illnesses such as colds. There seems to be a substantial chance that COVID-19 will return on an annual basis. If vaccines generate a similar immunity pattern, we will be facing an issue of needing new vaccines, every year, as we do with flu.

    [4] Cutbacks on education of many kinds.

    Many people getting advanced degrees find that the time and expense did not lead to an adequate financial reward afterwards. At the same time, universities find that there are not many grants to support faculty, outside of the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering or Math) fields. With this combination of problems, universities with limited budgets make the financial decision to reduce or eliminate programs with reduced student interest and no outside funding.

    At the same time, if local school districts find themselves short of funds, they may choose to use distance learning, simply to save money. This type of cutback could affect grade school children, especially in poor areas.

    [5] Increasing loss of the top layers of governments.

    It takes money/energy to support extra layers of government. The UK is now completely out of the European Union. We can expect to see more changes of this type. The UK may dissolve into smaller regions. Other parts of the EU may leave. This problem could affect many countries around the world, such as China or countries of the Middle East.

    [6] Less globalization; more competition among countries.

    Every country is struggling with the problem of not enough jobs that pay well. This is really an energy-related problem. Instead of co-operating, countries will tend to increasingly compete, in the hope that their country can somehow get a larger share of the higher-paying jobs. Tariffs will continue to be popular.

    [7] More empty shelves in stores.

    In 2020, we discovered that supply lines can break, making it impossible to purchase products a person expects. In fact, new governmental rules can have the same impact, for example, if a country bans travel to its country. We should expect more of this in 2021, and in the years ahead.

    [8] More electrical outages, especially in locations where reliance on intermittent wind and solar for electricity is high.

    In most places in the world, oil products were available before electricity. On the way down, we should expect to see the reverse of this pattern: Electricity will disappear first because it is hardest to maintain a constant supply. Oil will be available, at least as long as is electricity.

    There is a popular belief that we will “run out of oil,” and that renewable electricity can be a solution. I do not think that intermittent electricity can be a solution for anything. It works poorly. At most, it acts as a temporary extender to fossil fuel-provided electricity.

    [9] Possible hyperinflation, as countries issue more and more debt and no longer trust each other.

    I often say that I expect oil and energy prices to stay low, but this doesn’t really hold if many countries around the world issue more and more government debt as a way to try to keep businesses from failing, debt from defaulting, and stock market prices inflated. There is a danger that all prices will inflate, and that sellers of products will no longer accept the hyperinflated currency that countries around the world are trying to provide.

    My concern is that international trade will break down to a significant extent as hyperinflation of all currencies becomes a problem. The higher prices of oil and other energy products won’t really lead to any more production because prices of all goods and services will be inflating at the same time; fossil fuel producers will not get any special benefit from these higher prices.

    If a significant loss of trade occurs, there will be even more empty shelves because there is very little any one country can make on its own. Without adequate goods, population loss may be very high.

    [10] New ways of countries trying to fight with each other.

    When there are not enough resources to go around, historically, wars have been fought. I expect wars will continue to be fought, but the approaches will “look different” than in the past. They may involve tariffs on imported goods. They may involve the use of laboratory-made viruses. They may involve attacking the internet of another country, or its electrical distribution system. There may be no officially declared war. Strange things may simply take place that no one understands, without realizing that the country is being attacked.

    Conclusion

    We seem to be headed for very bumpy waters in the years ahead, including 2021. Our real problem is an energy problem that we do not have a solution for.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 18:40

  • Suddenly Optimistic Fauci Sees Pandemic "Plateauing," Feels "Liberated" Under Biden Admin
    Suddenly Optimistic Fauci Sees Pandemic “Plateauing,” Feels “Liberated” Under Biden Admin

    Summary:

    • Washington DC revives indoor dining after inauguration
    • French Prez warns permanent immunity should not be assumed
    • Biden says US cases plateauing, as Biden Admin “liberates”
    • EU leaders call for more lockdowns, curfews
    • Even Dr. Fauci has agreed that it appears US cases are “plateauing”
    • UK blocking entry fri  ifal ris 
    • Goldman data shows COVID hospitalizations may be trending lower
    • US cases, hospitalizations decline; deaths at highs
    • Hungary first in EU to approve Russian vaccine
    • UAE also approves Russian vax
    • Dr. Fauci confirms US commitment to Gates-backed vaccine program
    • Ireland latest in Europe to extend lockdown
    • Saudi Arabia, UAE complain of vaccine supply delays
    • UK suffers deadliest day yet

    * * *

    Update (1415ET): We’ve seen a flurry of new coronavirus news reported published early this afternoon, beginning with a slight ray of hope for Washington DC residents after a difficult week. On Friday, the inauguration-related “pause” on dining in public will be lifted, allowing Americans to eat indoors, so long as the capacity is 25% of total.

    Elsewhere, vaccine skepticism is once again the name of the game in France on Thursday, where President Emmanuel Macron warned French politicians and the French people not to assume that the virus will simply disappear once vaccinations are complete.

    In other news, a reporter grilling Joe Biden about the US’s weak vaccination targets elicited a frustrated response from Biden, who raged “Give me a Break!” at the reporter in question. Here’s how that went down.

    REPORTER: “You set the goal at 100 million vaccines, is that high enough? Should you set the bar higher? That’s basically where the US is right now.” BIDEN: “When I announced it, you all said that it’s not possible. Come on. Give me a break, man”.

    As if the press hasn’t already fawned over Biden enough…but we digress. In other news, Biden insisted that wearing masks until April may help save 50K lives, another number apparently pulled out of a hat.

    Finally, Dr. Fauci said Thursday that it looks like new cases in the USA might actually be plateauing, despite the holiday surge we were promised by him a few months ago. But where is this more optimistic frame of mind based on? Well, the diminutive doctor admitted that he feels “liberated” by Biden.

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    The data would appear to bear that out.

    Finally, in Europe, where travel bans, curfews and lockdown extensions continue (even as Bavaria bucks the trend in Europe) the UK is now banning arrivals from Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Across the continent, EU leaders are agreeing that lockdown measures need to be strengthened, despite the growing body of evidence that they do little to stop the spread of the virus, according to a massive peer-reviewed study that hit recently.

    They’re even agreeing that across the Continent, all leisure and business travel must be curbed, at least for now. In the Netherlands, PM Mark Rutte has unsurprisingly managed to convince residents that a travel ban is ready,

    And so much for all the mutant strains that policy makers have used to justify new lockdowns in the US, because Bloomberg’s data shows cases are now falling in the vast majority of the US. In 42 US states, the seven-day case average has fallen more than 10% from a week earlier, while the other four had more modest drops, according to Covid Tracking Project data. Overall, the US seven-day average is down 20% from a week ago, to 192,825, because the drop is much greater in some states, down 39% in Missouri, for instance.

    * * *

    Yesterday was a mixed bag for the US on the COVID front: After the US topped 400K COVID deaths earlier this year, the US saw a new daily record number of deaths to coincide with Biden’s inauguration. Meanwhile, the WHO finally acknowledged that the “conspiracy theorists” were right about the COVID “case-demic”, and that Ct overmagnification during PCR testing might be producing many false positives.

    On Monday, it appears more evidence is beginning to emerge that COVID hospitalizations in the US are seeing a trajectory-shift which should feed through to lower mortality numbers in the weeks ahead, according to models produced by analysts at Goldman Sachs.

    An analysis of how vaccinations are impacting hospitalizations shows that there is a correlation between growing vaccination numbers, and lower hospitalizations.

    Before introducing a second chart, the Goldman team writes that it “analyzed hospitalizations for the 25 largest states (by population) representing 88% of all US hospitalizations. We find there has been a 55% correlation between the vaccinations as of the beginning of the year and the YTD decline in hospitalizations. This further supports the connection between recent vaccinations and the decline in hospitalizations.”

    As the COVID Tracking Project data show, daily cases have continued to move lower in all four regions of the country, while nationally hospitalizations have started to dip (a trend that, as Goldman’s charts suggest, may be extended).

    It’s just the latest sign that Wall Street truly believes that we have reached “the beginning of the end” of COVID…whether that actually turns out to be accurate, however, is another story.

    Meanwhile, after Biden officially ordered the US to halt its departure from the WHO yesterday and rejoin its Covax vaccine-sharing program spearheaded by Bill Gates, Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared at an early morning meeting Thursday where he reaffirmed America’s commitment to the WHO.

    Dr. Fauci, who will now lead the US delegation, said “I am honored to announce that the United States will remain a member of the World Health Organization.” His words marked the first public statement by a member of Biden’s administration to an international audience – and a sign of the priority that the new president has made of fighting COVID-19 both at home and with world partners.

    Meanwhile, over in the EU, Viktor Orban’s Hungary has become the first EU country to grant approval to “Sputnik V”, the COVID vaccine developed by the Gameleya Institute and Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund. Orban’s regime coupled the approval with a complaint that it has been unable to procure enough (western-made) vaccines from Brussels, and so has been forced to look elsewhere. The UAE also approved the vaccine for emergency use on Thursday.

    Here’s some more COVID news from overnight and Thursday morning:

    Thailand approved AstraZeneca’s COVID vaccine for emergency use, making way for the country to begin inoculating its 67MM people as it endures an increase in coronavirus cases (Source: Bloomberg).

    Saudi Arabia and Kuwait said they would reschedule vaccine appointments because of supply delays from Pfizer. Lebanon extended its nationwide lockdown, which began last week, for another two weeks (Source: Bloomberg).

    Ireland has become the latest European country to extend its lockdown, which will continue “well into February” before the rules are “reviewed”, Prime Minister Micheal Martin said (Source: Bloomberg).

    * * *

    Finally, in the UK, the mutant COVID strain appears to be causing major strife as early evidence shows the strict lockdowns – England’s third, which citizens are starting to rebel against – haven’t had much near-term impact on reducing case numbers. The UK suffered its deadliest day yet, with 1.8K deaths recorded in 24 hours, as Boris Johnson’s chief scientific adviser warned some hospitals now look “like a war zone.”

    Moreover

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 18:35

  • China Appeals To "Kind Angels" Of Biden Administration, Blames Trump For "Burning Bridges"
    China Appeals To “Kind Angels” Of Biden Administration, Blames Trump For “Burning Bridges”

    China is hoping for a rapid ‘reset’ of sorts with Washington now with President Joe Biden in the White House. After state media headlines out of China on Tuesday into Wednesday said “Good Riddance Mr. Trump” as Xinhua wrote, Thursday’s tone out of the foreign ministry was markedly different.

    While essentially placing sole blame on Trump and his top officials, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in the latest press briefing remarks that “kind angels can triumph over evil forces” in America.

    “In the past years, the Trump administration, especially (former Secretary of State Mike) Pompeo, has laid too many mines that need to be removed, burned too many bridges that need to be rebuilt, damaged too many roads that need to be repaired,” Hua began.

    Via Politico

    “I believe if both countries put in the effort, the kind angels can triumph over evil forces,” she told a daily briefing Thursday. Her word choice was then featured across state media headlines.

    Speaking specifically on Biden’s inaugural speech Wednesday, Hua added:

    “President Biden also mentioned in his inauguration speech that Americans have much to heal, much to restore. This is exactly what China-U.S. relations need.”

    However, there’s little doubt that China was miffed at the fact that Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to Washington had been officially invited to attend and was present for the inauguration. 

    Related to growing tensions centered on both Taiwan and Hong Kong, China had slapped sanctions on a who’s who of top outgoing Trump administration officials on Wednesday. Significantly, 28 Trump admin figures will be permanently barred from travel or doing business either on the Chinese mainland or Hong Kong.

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    “China announces decision to sanction 28 U.S. figures who it alleged to have severely violated China’s sovereignty, including officials in the Trump administration, according to a statement from the Chinese foreign ministry,” Bloomberg reported shortly after Biden took the oath of office Wednesday.

    When asked about the dramatic act of ‘revenge’ against the Trump people, Biden’s administration called the move “unproductive and cynical,” according to Reuters. But it’s also very likely that many within the new administration are quietly gleeful over the severe restrictions regarding doing any business in China or Hong Kong by the targeted Trump officials.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 18:20

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Today’s News 21st January 2021

  • Stung By Chip Shortage, VW Loses Production Of "Tens Of Thousands" Of Vehicles In China
    Stung By Chip Shortage, VW Loses Production Of “Tens Of Thousands” Of Vehicles In China

    Volkswagen has been the latest automaker to be hit hard by the semiconductor shortage that is sweeping its way through the auto industry. 

    The company has reportedly lost “tens of thousands” of vehicles in production in China as a result, according to Bloomberg

    VW’s China head, Stephan Wollenstein, commented Wednesday: “It was hurting us already in December and we lost some 10,000 cars since then simply because we lost 50,000 cars in production in December because of some chips.”

    For VW, the impact has been felt the most in vehicles that use the automaker’s Electronic Stability Program, “a system of sensors that works with a car’s Anti-lock Braking System to prevent the wheels seizing up after an unexpected swerve.”

    “You see how vulnerable our industries are if only one chip is missing. This will unfortunately continue in the first quarter,” Wollenstein continued. 

    China is the world’s largest auto market and a critical market for VW, who has about 40% of its vehicle operations in the country. In China, VW delivered 3.85 million cars in 2020, down 9.1% from the year prior as a result of the pandemic. 

    2021 was thought to be a year where many automakers could play catch-up, but the chip shortage could stand in the way of an easy recovery for some automakers. Recall, we reported just days ago that the ongoing global chip shortage was wreaking havoc with the auto industry, which has become far more reliant on semiconductors due to “smart cars”, than it ever has been.

    Last Tuesday, it was reported that Toyota has stopped its factory lines in Guangzhou, China as a result of lack of semiconductors. This came just hours after the company said it would have to cut production of its Tundra, being manufactured in Texas, by 40% for the same reason.

    “The [Chinese factory] suspension could result in as much as a 30% cut in January’s output depending on how long it drags on,” Bloomberg noted early Tuesday morning. The company has told some of its suppliers that the halt could last about 4 days. 

    Meanwhile, Toyota was unable to provide concrete information as to when production would restart. The Japanese automaker operates the Guangzhou factory with Guangzhou Automobile.

    Toyota spokesman Scott Vazin told the Chicago Tribune last week: “This is absolutely an industry issue. We are evaluating the supply constraint of semiconductors and developing countermeasures to minimize the impact to production.”

    Kristin Dziczek, vice president of industry at the Center for Automotive Research, commented: “There have been warning signs about his for months.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/21/2021 – 01:00

  • Biden Can Now Launch The Nukes And Unleash World War III Whenever He Feels Like It
    Biden Can Now Launch The Nukes And Unleash World War III Whenever He Feels Like It

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    During the Trump administration, I pointed to a problem with the American presidential system: it provides presidents with essentially unchecked power when it comes to launching a nuclear holocaust. Presidents can initiate nuclear war whenever they like. They need not be acting in a defensive capacity. This should strike any sane person as a rather insane policy, and as a huge hole in the so-called checks and balances on which the US political system is allegedly premised. 

    Because of the Washington Beltway hysteria over Trump, the Congress—possibly for the first time—considered measures to rein in the president in this regard. It’s a shame it required Trump Derangement Syndrome to make this an issue, but we should take what we can get when it comes to admitting some of the grave threats to common sensical governance that plague the American national security state. 

    Naturally, these lukewarm attempts at reform failed, likely because the Pentagon was surely opposed to them. While the president’s power is essentially unrestrained in this manner, the loosey goosey approach to controlling launching power also empowers the Pentagon. Surely, the Pentagon’s generals wanted to make sure they can have a big role in launching WWIII on a whim as well. 

    Moreover, Trump supporters opposed the idea as well. When I published the 2020 article on the problem of unchecked presidential power in this regard, I was savaged by Trump supporters in social media for allegedly being a “never Trumper” and failing to understand that the power of the president must never be limited in any way, lest it get in the way of Trump “owning the libs.” Now that Trump is an ex-president, however, both Washington and the hero-worshipping Trump backers will completely forget about the issue. As far as Washington is concerned, the nuke codes are now being controlled by one of their own. And few Trump supporters ever cared about limiting presidential power, anyway. 

    So, the power to incinerate a billion or more human beings over morning coffee remains in the power of the president. This morning, Biden supporters on Twitter were ecstatic over the video of the nuclear “football”—the device which enables the president to launch the nukes—was handed over to Biden:

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    But this should be little comfort to anyone who’s paying attention, especially given the launch codes are now under the thumb of a man who may not even know what year it is. 

    But regardless of who is president, the fact is the only thing that stands between a president and his launching of nuclear missiles is his own moral compass. Anyone who isn’t hopelessly naïve about politicians and political institutions will find this deeply disturbing.

    A Brief History of the Nuclear Launch Process

    But why has there been no significant effort to develop some sort of check or veto to this process? Part of this lies in the fact the US military establishment maintains a posture very much in favor of erring on the side of aggression rather than restraint. In the early days of the nuclear-armed Cold War, there were essentially no safeguards in place. A man claiming to be the president, if he had access to the right people, could theoretically call for a nuclear strike, and there was no set way of remotely verifying his identity.

    A more robust process was put in place by President Kennedy:

    Although its origins remain highly classified, the Football can be traced back to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Privately, John F. Kennedy believed that nuclear weapons were, as he put it, “only good for deterring.” He also felt it was “insane that two men, sitting on opposite sides of the world, should be able to decide to bring an end to civilization.” Horrified by the doctrine known as MAD (mutually assured destruction), JFK ordered locks to be placed on nuclear weapons and demanded alternatives to the “all or nothing” nuclear war plan.

    Kennedy began asking questions about how a nuclear strike might actually take place, and specifically asked:

    • “What would I say to the Joint War Room to launch an immediate nuclear strike?”

    • “How would the person who received my instructions verify them?”

    Kennedy felt that it was important to ensure that only the president—whose identity could somehow be verified—could authorize a strike.

    According to some critics of the Pentagon, however, the military was committed to making it easy to launch the missiles. The Air Force has even been accused of using “00000000” as a code that could enable the launch of a nuclear missile. According to Foreign Policy:

    Bruce Blair, a nuclear security expert and former launch officer…[and] now a scholar and author at Princeton University, first raised the idea in a piece published in 2004. He accused the Air Force of circumventing President John F. Kennedy’s 1962 order to install extra security codes to safeguard against accidental or unauthorized launch by putting them in place, but making them painfully simple to the missile launch officers who manned underground bunkers. Doing so, Blair said, effectively eliminated the codes’ usefulness.

    Blair contends this easy-code protocol persisted for at least a decade, including the period when he was a launch officer.

    For its part, the Air Force denies using the specific code “00000000.” Nonetheless, the prolaunch posture of the Pentagon has long been evident. As noted by Jeffrey Lewis at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies:

    Bruce is correct about the major historical narrative at stake – the United States Air Force, particularly Strategic Air Command, generally resisted the introduction of technical safeguards out of concerns that such measures might make it more difficult to use the weapons in the event of a conflict….Like many other practices of the period…the Air Force’s emphasis on readiness at the expense of safety at that time seems, admittedly with the benefit of hindsight, unwise in the extreme.

    Other potential sources of human error or sabotage have surfaced over the years as well.

    Military personnel close to President Clinton have claimed that he misplaced the so-called biscuit, the card on which nuclear launch codes are printed. Presidents have often carried them in a coat pocket. But they can be misplacedAccording to one of the men who carried the football:

    “[Clinton] thought he just placed them upstairs,” Patterson recalled. “We called upstairs, we started a search around the White House for the codes, and he finally confessed that he in fact misplaced them. He couldn’t recall when he had last seen them.”

    Other cases have reputedly occurred. President Carter allegedly “left his biscuit in a suit that got sent to the dry cleaners.”

    One instance that has been confirmed, however, is when Ronald Reagan’s codes were left discarded and unattended following his attempted assassination:

    During the chaos that followed the shooting, the military aide was separated from the president, and did not accompany him to the George Washington University hospital. In the moments before Reagan was wheeled into the operating theater, he was stripped of his clothes and other possessions. The Biscuit was later found abandoned, unceremoniously dumped in a hospital plastic bag.

    While mere loss of the biscuit does not trigger any sort of launch, it is not difficult to predict how access to the codes could be abused by someone else in a chaotic wartime situation. Scholars have suggested several potential problems with verification and authorization.

    For example, what if a president refused to launch missiles in opposition to the emphatic urgings of his subordinates? Could he then be incapacitated by his subordinates and his launch codes used under the authorization of another person?

    It is unknown how this would play out. According to Ron Rosenbaum in How the End Begins: The Road to a Nuclear World War III,

    the whole question of nuclear command authority, and of who takes control of that authority if the president is killed in a nuclear attack, has frustrated experts and politicians for decades. Yale Law School professor Akhil Reed Amar has called the confusing succession problem “a disaster waiting to happen.”

    This suggests problems whether a president is killed, thought to be killed, or is unreachable for a period. If the vice president assumes office and the original president later resurfaces, who then controls the nuclear weapons? Conspirators could also attempt to actively wrest control of launch authorization from presidents through deception. This could include having the president declared incapacitated for reasons of insanity under the Twenty-Fifth Amendment. But Rosenbaum writes:

    By then we’d be in coup territory, or inside an episode of 24. And what is sanity or insanity? What if the president refuses to carry out the deterrent threat of genocidal retaliation once it’s failed to deter a strike on us? Can those around him force the president to give them the Gold Codes and in effect give the launch order? Who determines who is sane and who is insane?

    This strategy, of course, could be used by either side: a prolaunch vice president might ally with a secretary of defense to declare an antilaunch president mentally incompetent. Or, anti-launch underlings could seek to declare the president insane so as to prevent a launch.

    Either way, its clear that this is uncharted territory and well outside the bounds of any orderly process of checks and balances on executive power.

    Problems extend down the chain of command as well. In 1973, launch officer Major Harold Hering asked his superiors for clarification on how he could know if the president giving the order was sane. The military brass had no answer. Instead, Hering was forced out of the Air Force. Although the military likes to claim personnel are required only to follow legal orders—i.e., not planet-destroying orders issued by insane people—all that really mattered was that Hering be willing to launch missiles without question.

    The fact of the matter is that there is no way to confirm a president has consulted any facts on the necessity of nuclear war, or that the president is in his (or her) right mind when ordering a nuclear strike.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 23:45

  • Ship Crossing Pacific Loses 750 Containers In The Ocean After Hitting Storm
    Ship Crossing Pacific Loses 750 Containers In The Ocean After Hitting Storm

    Last December, we reported that an unlucky containership – the ultra-large ONE Apus – suffered a historic incident when it lost a record number of containers overboard as it sailed across the Pacific Ocean towards Long Beach after hitting severe weather; the ship lost some 1,816 container units, of which 64 are were Dangerous Goods containers.

    It now appears that this was just the start of a unfortunate series of incidents because as Maritime Executive reports, heavy weather in the North Pacific was again blamed for the loss of containers aboard one of Maersk’s containerships. This was the third container loss incident recently reported in the Pacific.

    Maersk said that approximately 750 containers were lost overboard from the Maersk Essen, a 148,723 dwt vessel with a capacity of 13,100 TEU. The loss occurred on January 16, but the line did not supply details on the vessel’s location. The vessel had departed Xiamen, China on December 26 and was due to arrive off Los Angeles on January 22; the ship operates on Maersk’s TP6 Asia/US West Coast route and as such would have made calls in Vietnam, Hong Kong, and Yantian, China before arriving in Xiamen.

    Cargo claims consultancy WK Webster is saying in its initial casualty report, that “it is very likely that some containers will have collapsed or have been damaged in the affected stacks, but remain on board. These containers will need to be removed or repositioned.” Webster reports that it is making arrangements for surveyors to be in place in order to investigate the cause of the incident and to attend to any cargo surveys. They are urging anyone who might have had cargo aboard to make contact to protect their position.

    “We view this as a very serious situation which will be investigated promptly and thoroughly,” Maersk said in its statement. They reported that all of the crew was safe and that a detailed cargo assessment is ongoing. In addition, the US Coast Guard, flag state and relevant authorities have been notified.

    The Maersk Essen is proceeding to Los Angeles on its scheduled route. Maersk’s vessel tracking system shows that the vessel was scheduled to be on the terminal in Los Angeles from January 28 to February 5 before departing for Yokohama, Japan.

    As noted above, there have been several other incidents in recent month also on the North Pacific. On November 30, the ultra-large containership ONE Apus lost approximately 1,800 containers overboard and damaged scores more during reports of severe weather approximately 1,600 nautical miles northwest of Hawaii. In that incident, the vessel reversed course and sailed to Kobe, Japan, where the recovery operation is still ongoing.

    In another recent incident, at the beginning of November, the ONE Aquila also suffered a container loss in the North Pacific. One Line did not provide details on the number of containers, but WK Webster in its casualty report said that it believed the number exceeded 100 containers. That vessel diverted to Washington state to offload damaged containers and reposition lose containers before proceeding to Long Beach, California.

    These recent events are counter to a report issued by the World Shipping Council last summer that said the incidents of containers lost overboard has been on the decline and is a small percentage of the total annual volume. The WSC reported that the three-year moving average was declining, amounting to an average annual loss of 779 containers overboard between 2017 and 2019.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 23:25

  • The Deep State's Stealthy, Subversive, Silent Coup To Ensure Nothing Changes
    The Deep State’s Stealthy, Subversive, Silent Coup To Ensure Nothing Changes

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “You have such a fervent, passionate, evangelical faith in this country…why in the name of God don’t you have any faith in the system of government you’re so hell-bent to protect? You want to defend the United States of America, then defend it with the tools it supplies you with—its Constitution. You ask for a mandate, General, from a ballot box. You don’t steal it after midnight, when the country has its back turned.”

    Seven Days in May (1964)

    No doubt about it: the coup d’etat was successful.

    That January 6 attempt by so-called insurrectionists to overturn the election results was not the real coup, however. Those who answered President Trump’s call to march on the Capitol were merely the fall guys, manipulated into creating the perfect crisis for the Deep State—a.k.a. the Police State a.k.a. the Military Industrial Complex a.k.a. the Techno-Corporate State a.k.a. the Surveillance State—to swoop in and take control.

    It took no time at all for the switch to be thrown and the nation’s capital to be placed under a military lockdown, online speech forums restricted, and individuals with subversive or controversial viewpoints ferreted out, investigated, shamed and/or shunned.

    This new order didn’t emerge into being this week, or this month, or even this year, however.

    Indeed, the real coup happened when our government “of the people, by the people, for the people” was overthrown by a profit-driven, militaristic, techno-corporate state that is in cahoots with a government “of the rich, by the elite, for the corporations.”

    We’ve been mired in this swamp for decades now.

    Every successive president starting with Franklin D. Roosevelt has been bought lock, stock and barrel and made to dance to the Deep State’s tune.

    Enter Donald Trump, the candidate who swore to drain the swamp in Washington DC. Instead of putting an end to the corruption, however, Trump paved the way for lobbyists, corporations, the military industrial complex, and the Deep State to feast on the carcass of the dying American republic.

    Joe Biden will be no different: his job is to keep the Deep State in power.

    Step away from the cult of personality politics and you’ll find that beneath the power suits, they’re all alike.

    Follow the money.  It always points the way.

    As Bertram Gross noted in Friendly Fascism: The New Face of Power in America, “evil now wears a friendlier face than ever before in American history.”

    Writing in 1980, Gross predicted a future in which he saw:

    …a new despotism creeping slowly across America. Faceless oligarchs sit at command posts of a corporate-government complex that has been slowly evolving over many decades. In efforts to enlarge their own powers and privileges, they are willing to have others suffer the intended or unintended consequences of their institutional or personal greed. For Americans, these consequences include chronic inflation, recurring recession, open and hidden unemployment, the poisoning of air, water, soil and bodies, and, more important, the subversion of our constitution. More broadly, consequences include widespread intervention in international politics through economic manipulation, covert action, or military invasion

    This stealthy, creeping, silent coup that Gross prophesied is the same danger that writer Rod Serling envisioned in the 1964 political thriller Seven Days in May, a clear warning to beware of martial law packaged as a well-meaning and overriding concern for the nation’s security.

    Incredibly enough, almost 60 years later, we find ourselves hostages to a government run more by military doctrine and corporate greed than by the rule of law established in the Constitution. Indeed, proving once again that fact and fiction are not dissimilar, today’s current events could well have been lifted straight out of Seven Days in May, which takes viewers into eerily familiar terrain.

    The premise is straightforward.

    With the Cold War at its height, an unpopular U.S. President signs a momentous nuclear disarmament treaty with the Soviet Union. Believing that the treaty constitutes an unacceptable threat to the security of the United States and certain that he knows what is best for the nation, General James Mattoon Scott (played by Burt Lancaster), the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and presidential hopeful, plans a military takeover of the national government.  When Gen. Scott’s aide, Col. Casey (Kirk Douglas), discovers the planned military coup, he goes to the President with the information. The race for command of the U.S. government begins, with the clock ticking off the hours until the military plotters plan to overthrow the President.

    Needless to say, while on the big screen, the military coup is foiled and the republic is saved in a matter of hours, in the real world, the plot thickens and spreads out over the past half century.

    We’ve been losing our freedoms so incrementally for so long—sold to us in the name of national security and global peace, maintained by way of martial law disguised as law and order, and enforced by a standing army of militarized police and a political elite determined to maintain their powers at all costs—that it’s hard to pinpoint exactly when it all started going downhill, but we’ve been on that fast-moving, downward trajectory for some time now.

    The question is no longer whether the U.S. government will be preyed upon and taken over by the military industrial complex. That’s a done deal, but martial law disguised as national security is only one small part of the greater deception we’ve been fooled into believing is for our own good.

    How do you get a nation to docilely accept a police state? How do you persuade a populace to accept metal detectors and pat downs in their schools, bag searches in their train stations, tanks and military weaponry used by their small town police forces, surveillance cameras in their traffic lights, police strip searches on their public roads, unwarranted blood draws at drunk driving checkpoints, whole body scanners in their airports, and government agents monitoring their communications?

    Try to ram such a state of affairs down the throats of the populace, and you might find yourself with a rebellion on your hands. Instead, you bombard them with constant color-coded alerts, terrorize them with shootings and bomb threats in malls, schools, and sports arenas, desensitize them with a steady diet of police violence, and sell the whole package to them as being for their best interests.

    This present military occupation of the nation’s capital by 25,000 troops as part of the so-called “peaceful” transfer of power from one administration to the next is telling.

    This is not the language of a free people. This is the language of force.

    Still, you can’t say we weren’t warned.

    Back in 2008, an Army War College report revealed that “widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security.” The 44-page report went on to warn that potential causes for such civil unrest could include another terrorist attack, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters.”

    In 2009, reports by the Department of Homeland Security surfaced that labelled right-wing and left-wing activists and military veterans as extremists (a.k.a. terrorists) and called on the government to subject such targeted individuals to full-fledged pre-crime surveillance. Almost a decade later, after spending billions to fight terrorism, the DHS concluded that the greater threat is not ISIS but domestic right-wing extremism.

    Meanwhile, the police have been transformed into extensions of the military while the nation itself has been transformed into a battlefield. This is what a state of undeclared martial law looks like, when you can be arrested, tasered, shot, brutalized and in some cases killed merely for not complying with a government agent’s order or not complying fast enough. This hasn’t just been happening in crime-ridden inner cities. It’s been happening all across the country.

    And then you’ve got the government, which has been steadily amassing an arsenal of military weapons for use domestically and equipping and training their “troops” for war. Even government agencies with largely administrative functions such as the Food and Drug Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Smithsonian have been acquiring body armor, riot helmets and shields, cannon launchers and police firearms and ammunition. In fact, there are now at least 120,000 armed federal agents carrying such weapons who possess the power to arrest.

    Rounding out this profit-driven campaign to turn American citizens into enemy combatants (and America into a battlefield) is a technology sector that has been colluding with the government to create a Big Brother that is all-knowing, all-seeing and inescapable. It’s not just the drones, fusion centers, license plate readers, stingray devices and the NSA that you have to worry about. You’re also being tracked by the black boxes in your cars, your cell phone, smart devices in your home, grocery loyalty cards, social media accounts, credit cards, streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon, and e-book reader accounts.

    So you see, January 6 and its aftermath provided the government and its corporate technocrats the perfect excuse to show off all of the powers they’ve been amassing so assiduously over the years.

    Mind you, by “government,” I’m not referring to the highly partisan, two-party bureaucracy of the Republicans and Democrats.

    I’m referring to “government” with a capital “G,” the entrenched Deep State that is unaffected by elections, unaltered by populist movements, and has set itself beyond the reach of the law.

    I’m referring to the corporatized, militarized, entrenched bureaucracy that is fully operational and staffed by unelected officials who are, in essence, running the country and calling the shots in Washington DC, no matter who sits in the White House.

    This is the hidden face of a government that has no respect for the freedom of its citizenry.

    Brace yourself.

    There is something being concocted in the dens of power, far beyond the public eye, and it doesn’t bode well for the future of this country.

    Anytime you have an entire nation so mesmerized by the antics of the political ruling class that they are oblivious to all else, you’d better beware.

    Anytime you have a government that operates in the shadows, speaks in a language of force, and rules by fiat, you’d better beware.

    And anytime you have a government so far removed from its people as to ensure that they are never seen, heard or heeded by those elected to represent them, you’d better beware.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we are at our most vulnerable right now.

    All of those dastardly seeds we have allowed the government to sow under the guise of national security are bearing demon fruit.

    The gravest threat facing us as a nation is not extremism but despotism, exercised by a ruling class whose only allegiance is to power and money.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 23:05

  • Twitter, Facebook And YouTube Allow Incendiary Anti-MAGA Video To Remain On Platforms
    Twitter, Facebook And YouTube Allow Incendiary Anti-MAGA Video To Remain On Platforms

    While Silicon Valley tech giants spent the last two weeks purging President Trump and tens of thousands of his followers over ‘dangerous conspiracy theories’ and ‘inciting violence’ during the so-called “Capitol insurrection” on January 6, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube have yet to remove a video by far-left Russiagate conspiracy theorist Dan Winslow which is the definition of incitement.

    “They are hidden among us, disguised behind regular jobs,” Winslow warns. “They are your children’s teachers. They work at supermarkets, malls, doctor’s offices, and many are police officers and soldiers.”

    The video, which has over 4 million Twitter views in two days, calls for “an army of citizen detectives” to identify Trump supporters – who he calls Trump’s ‘army of domestic terrorists,’ – who should be reported to authorities.

    The video, which one would think clearly violates Silicon Valley’s arbitrary rules against incitement and hate speech, continues to be viewable on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. Would big tech allow a conservative video claiming Biden voters are left-wing terrorists who need to be watched to remain on their platforms?

    Winslow’s video appears to be designed to stoke maximum division between Americans (which, as we were told for four years during ‘Russiagate’ and have known for decades, is straight out of the Kremlin’s playbook).

    As Caitlin Johnstone noted on Tuesday, and is worth repeating:

    “On or before January 20th, Donald Trump will no longer be the Commander-in-Chief: he will lose control of the Army, Navy, Airforce, Marines, Special Forces and America’s nuclear arsenal,” Winslow’s voice begins ominously. “On January 20th Donald Trump will become Commander-in-Chief of a different army: this army.”

    Viewers are then shown footage from Trump rallies while being told that they are looking at “radical extreme conservatives, also known as domestic terrorists”.

    “They are hidden among us, disguised behind regular jobs,” Winslow warns.

    They are your children’s teachers. They work at supermarkets, malls, doctor’s offices, and many are police officers and soldiers.

    Winslow talks about white supremacists and the Capitol riot, warning that Trump will continue escalating violence and fomenting a civil war in America.

    “We have to fight back,” Winslow declares.

    “In this new war, the battlefield has changes. Computers can be more valuable than guns. And this is what we need now more than ever: an army of citizen detectives. I’m proposing we form a citizen army. Our weapons will be computers and cellphones. We, who are monitoring extremists on the internet and reporting our findings to authorities. Remember, before the Navy Seals killed Osama Bin Laden, he had to be found. He was found by a CIA analyst working on a computer thousands of miles away. It’s up to you.”

    * * *

    In addition to the usual suspects on the left using Winslow’s video to incite a new witch hunt, the Biden Administration is now focusing on ‘Domestic Terrorism’ as a key priority. And as Johnstone also notes, and which is worth repeating, these people are batshit crazy.

    Johnstone continues:

    This is as insane and scary as I have ever seen these people get, and I was in the thick of peak Russiagate hysteria. An aggressively manufactured push to get an army of citizens spying on each other calls to mind the Stasi informants of East Germany, the patriotism-fueled digital “digging” of the QAnon psyop, and the NatSec LARPing of Louise Mensch Twitter, all rolled into one great big ball of crazy.

    This comes out as we are being bombarded with mass media punditry from literal CIA veterans like Sue Gordon and Elissa Slotkin forcefully hammering home the message that domestic terror is the new frontier for combating violent extremism, meaning of course that new Patriot Act-like solutions will be needed. Winslow himself spent six years traveling and doing research for a novel about a former CIA operative, and if some government agency didn’t recruit him during that period they clearly should have.

    This will get frightening if it keeps up. Just as a relatively low-profile lefty blogger I routinely get liberals online falsely claiming I’m a Russian agent and saying they’ll report me to the FBI, and that’s without an aggressive campaign urging them to join a powerful digital army. The fact that Winslow stays very vague about what he means by “Trump’s new army” and constantly conflates rank-and-file Trump supporters with white supremacist terrorists means people are effectively being pointed at all Trump supporters, especially when normal Trump rallies are what he points to in the video. If this takes off it can very quickly lead to a volunteer army of power-worshipping snitches against literally anyone who is critical of US foreign policy or the Democratic Party, whether they actually support Trump or not.

    * * *

    Does Winslow want actual civil war?

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 22:45

  • Luongo: Epitaph For A Post-Trump America
    Luongo: Epitaph For A Post-Trump America

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    I’m relieved Donald Trump is no longer President. In fact, I’m downright ecstatic. This is the best I’ve felt in weeks.

    Trump was four years of faint hope, failed promises and false narratives.

    Oh, don’t get me wrong he was also entertaining as hell, did many things I fundamentally agreed with and accelerated the collapse of the biggest, most corrupt organization ever created in human history.

    He made a mockery of the media, stood tall until the final days of his presidency against a self-congratulatory bureaucracy and forced out into the open the depths of the depravity of our ruling class.

    I friggin’ love the guy for that.

    But I’m also over it. It’s time to move on.

    Today I feel no nostalgia for Trump or America 1.0.

    I refuse to go into the same hysterical theatrics the Left did four years ago. Biden’s the president. The restoration is complete. He was selected no different than every president other than Trump since Reagan.

    I have as much emotion for him as I had for Bush the Lesser, Clinton the Rapist or Obama the Enigma.

    He’s just a placeholder for a system I no longer have any affinity for. Trump always represented a big two-fingers up to that system, which too many conservatives helped Trump prop up for four years.

    One of my patrons posted a stray thought in our community on Slack that sums things up perfectly:

    “Just think if Trump had won fairly and the “steal” hadn’t happened. We’d have had another 4 inept years of placeholding and false hope.

    What a godsend that the steal happened as it has decoupled the people from the political establishments and freed them. Ok, so the Great Reset’s happening but who cares?

    Everybody knows about it.

    Necessity is the mother of invention and as long as people “feel” free then they aren’t free. That’s how it’s worked up until now. The decoupling had to happen somehow.”

    This is the law of unintended consequences writ large. Today should be looked at with relief for the clarity of vision we have for the future. It will suck, but at least there is symmetry.

    In the end they stole the election to regain control and doing so set the stage for a wholesale rejection of their authority.

    Too many conservatives still believed in the Myth of America. That should stop today.

    The lead up to the inauguration with all of the pearl clutching, troop movements, breathless headlines portending a violent assault on the Capitol was the height of political theater.

    And they know this. There’s no putting that genie back in the bottle.

    This is a picture that encapsulates everything wrong with post-Trump America. Symbols of America but no Americans.

    Military and pols everywhere but no governed giving their consent.

    Image systems matter folks and the world is watching the U.S. transition from a Republic into an Autocracy.

    I guess Gil Scott Heron was wrong, the revolution will be televised after all.

    The two weeks since the staged assault on the Capitol saw Trump pile-driven in the ground by a vengeful GOP leadership while obviously having his arm twisted behind the scenes.

    People who should know better can’t see through their own coping.

    What did they think trust-fund Donald was going to do? Fall on his sword for a whistleblower/journalist? Trump is, after all, still just Trump.

    This was the plan. Trump needed to finally be defeated. His followers humiliated. There was never going to be an Assange pardon.

    There was never going to be a big declassification.

    He was never allowed to burn the place down.

    If any of that was going to happen it would have happened ages ago.

    And this is why I’m happy Trump is gone. Because did you really want to live through another four years of pathetic virtue signaling, bureaucratic inertia, media lies and shameful pandering?

    No, today the collapse of the U.S. will be on the watch of the people who orchestrated it. It won’t have the consent of a majority of the people, but if we were really honest with ourselves that’s how it was under Obama, Bush the Lesser and Clinton.

    Trump was a guy who made things interesting but he also ensured we would be disabused of any notion of dissidence.

    Today is the day Trump supporters can finally grow up. He wasn’t Orange Jesus sent to save America from itself. There was never a plan.

    Trump was just a guy in over his head doing something no President did since Calvin Coolidge, giving a shit about what America means for Americans.

    That’s why he had to be destroyed and that’s why we ultimately have to put him behind us.

    As the U.S. sinks and what’s left of the legal protections we’ve enjoyed are taken away under the guise of ‘domestic terrorism’ we are also, strangely, free.

    That’s why I’m ecstatic a man more fit for Andrew Cuomo’s COVID Death Parlors is president today rather than Trump.

    Everyone’s eyes are now open. A fungus is president.

    Absent the false hope of Trump people are now free to conclude what I always have — politics got us into this, politics will not get us out.

    We can finally put the childish Red vs. Blue behind us.

    That false duality is gone. The GOP is dead. The Democrats are ready to knife each other climbing to the pinnacle. They both hate us.

    The Capitol knows it is under siege, not from right-wing militias and neo-Nazis but from their own fear of our not feeling anything for them anymore…

    … except maybe pity.

    So, raise a glass to Trump, wish him well, accept his limitations. The Empire is back with a vengeance. The Brave New Post-Trump World is here.

    And that has never been a more exhilarating thought.

    *  *  *

    Join My Patreon if you truly value freedom.

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 22:25

  • Generations Of Globalist Ghouls Collaborate On "Manifesto" For Post-Trump Economic "Reset"
    Generations Of Globalist Ghouls Collaborate On “Manifesto” For Post-Trump Economic “Reset”

    Proponents of the QAnon “conspiracy theory,” which the NYT can’t seem to stop writing about, are going to love seeing this.

    A memo that has reportedly been circulating among policymakers on both sides of the aisle for weeks was finally released to the press on Tuesday when Dealbook editor and CNBC “Squawk Box” host Andrew Ross Sorkin got the scoop: a memo penned by a group of senior-level bureaucrats, including – who else? – Henry Kissinger and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has provided a kind of “blueprint” for the Biden Administration to undo all of President Trump’s trade-war tactics and other policies that didn’t exactly help promote free trade.

    As Trump recounted in his farewell video published earlier Tuesday afternoon, his administration dramatically altered the American trade landscape, pulling the US out of the TPP, renegotiating Nafta into the USMCA, and – most consequentially, at things would turn out – the trade war with China, which inspired waves of hysterical lobbying by the Chamber of Commerce and special-interest groups from Big Tech to Wal-Mart and other major retailers, and others.

    So, as Biden prepares his first 100-day blitz of policy directives, many of the architects of the globalist system created by groups like the Trilateral Commission are joining with a gaggle of former cabinet-level officials (both Dems and GOP) along with the CEO of one of America’s largest banks, former British Labour Party Prime Minister Tony Blair and – who else? – Henry Kissinger, have essentially penned a manifesto that is being circulated among lawmakers, along with top-level officials in the cabinet and the West Wing, to help restore the globalist system that Trump helped to disrupt.

    Who better to leak the story to than Andrew Sorkin, who first brought up the existence of the memo during an interview during Tuesday morning’s episode of “Squawk Box” on CNBC during a conversation with Harvard economist Austan Goolsbee.

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    According to Sorkin’s column, “the memo comes from an under-the-radar group of global boldfaced names that act as a private advisory committee to JPMorgan Chase. They include Tony Blair, the former British prime minister; Condoleezza Rice and Henry Kissinger, two former secretaries of state; Robert Gates, the former secretary of defense; Alex Gorsky, chief executive of Johnson & Johnson; Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH; and Joseph C. Tsai, executive vice chairman of Alibaba, among others.”

    The group, which even Sorkin concedes is exclusively staffed with members of the “globalist part of the globalist establishment that fell out of favor during the Trump years, typically meets once a year in a far-flung location with JPMorgan’s chief, Jamie Dimon.”

    Dimon hasn’t shied away from sharing his idealistic political prescriptions for saving American capitalism from itself. Most of these screeds, published in recent annual letters to the bank’s shareholders, mostly focus on the need to raise taxes on the rich and make the American education system more meritocratic, among other proposed “reforms”.  Though whenever a rich person says they support raising taxes on the rich, one almost can’t help but feel skeptical.

    These discussions are usually kept quiet, filtering out through the shadowy nexus where corporate interest meets public policy meets Capitol Hill. But “given the precarious state of the world during a pandemic and change in leadership in Washington, the group put its views on paper in hopes of persuading policymakers to address what it sees as the most pressing priorities.”

    Though Sorkin didn’t share the memo, he described it as “a manifesto or sorts”. Without explicitly saying so, it advocates for a “reset” – a return to the pre-Trump days, essentially turning back the clock to a time before Trump dumped the TPP, retooled Nafta and started the aggressive trade war/economic confrontation of China.

    Why? Because, as Tony Blair explains to Sorkin at one point, “enlightened self-interest” – ie working closely with other countries to build better products and more efficient supply chains etc – actually helps lift all boats. In other words, backing down from the trade confrontation with China and other Trump policy rollbacks would actually help put “America First”.

    Without saying it in so many words, the group argues that engaging in policy and commerce with other countries isn’t a sign of weakness or against the interests of the country. In many ways, it is actually “America First.” “The purpose of cooperation is not to put someone else’s interest before those of your own country,” Mr. Blair told me about the discussions among the group. “Enlightened self-interest is best satisfied by people working together.” On this point, Mr. Gates, who was the secretary of defense under President George W. Bush, added that the government has failed to “bring home to the American people why international cooperation and engagement on the international front and the relationships with our allies, why that all serves Americas self-interest.”

    In an example of just how out-of-touch this memo’s authors apparently are, it argues that the COVID-19 outbreak is an example of the shortcomings of those who are skeptical of the globalist system.

    “The near-total absence of American leadership, coupled with the nationalist approach of too many countries, have come at the expense of a strategically coherent, international response to the pandemic,” the paper contends. Mr. Blair said that, while everyone involved in the group didn’t agree on every point in the document, it reflected the broad consensus.

    Even as Mike Pompeo labels China’s treatment of the Uyghers a “genocide”, the paper argues for greater cooperation on everything from saving the climate to “issues of global health”.

    The memo calls for a return to engaging with China, especially on climate issues and global health, while acknowledging the “significant challenge” the country poses. “The best outcome for US-China relations is likely managed competition — an accommodation that avoids military conflict while allowing for limited cooperation,” it reads. “It is impractical to think that supply chains and manufacturing can be moved simply, affordably or comprehensively out of China.”

    Sorkin acknowledges that Trump-aligned voters, as well as many on the Democratic Party’s left flank, might have serious problems with the memo, given the fact that it was written by the very architects of the free-trade system that hollowed out American factories.

    The document also calls for placing renewed importance on the G7 and G20. It urges the creation of “trusted supply chains” and places responsibility on the business community to engage with policymakers “from the point-of-view of the public interest, not simply narrow business interests.”

    Some will fairly question the group’s intentions. After all, a message being delivered by the nation’s biggest bank – and a group of chief executives and former senior policymakers – may only encourage the idea that there is a supersecret cabal of puppeteers steering policy.

    The idea that the Biden administration might take this group’s advice might be considered anathema to his supporters on the far left just as much as it is to his opponents on the far right.

    Tony Blair says he understands why people are skeptical, or even furious at, the globalist elite. But they’re not so bad, he says. In reality, the system they’re advocating is simply “common sense”. Dimon says that involving the business community and other stakeholders can help undo some of the mistakes of the past.

    Mr. Blair said he understood the skepticism of the motives of the global elite. “Politically this is my view: You’ve had genuine grievances, which populism has exploited, but too much of those opposed to populism have simply stood for better management of the status quo,” he said. Mr. Dimon said that one of the few ways that the status quo, and the inequality it created, can be undone is if his peers start advocating for policies that may be against their own short-term business interests.

    “I’d like to criticize business for a second,” he said in an interview, describing how he had witnessed some executives lobby for their business or themselves, knowingly at the expense of society. “I’ve been to a lot of meetings with presidents and prime ministers and senators and congressmen, and the selfishness and parochialism with the business folks is just absolutely outrageous.”

    “The first thing businesses should do is separate their company’s interests from what’s in the interest of the country,” he added.

    As an example, he took a shot at the private equity industry, which happens to provide some his bank’s biggest clients. “I mean, we still have carried interest in this country?” he said, questioning the special, lower tax rate that private equity executives enjoy. “When you look at those things, I feel like the American public says, ‘It’s a swamp.’ And they’re saying ‘I’m not getting my piece of it,’ you know?”

    Mr. Dimon said that, ultimately, many of the big challenges the country faces during and after the pandemic will require private-sector investment from around the world, and gaining the trust of the public is crucial.

    “It’s unlikely to be fixed without business, particularly when you get around to things like work skills, property and building infrastructure,” he said.

    Sorkin’s column ends with an analogy, reportedly sourced to Dimon, about FDR overcoming his hostilities with big business to build the War Production Board and staff it with captains of industry like Walter Chrysler.

    If nothing else, the memo and the slick way it was leaked to the press after making the rounds in Washington, is a harbinger of how business will be done in the Biden area, as the same old foreign policy and economy wonks from the Clinton, Bush and Obama years reemerge like the living dead.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 22:05

  • PBOC Injects The Most Liquidity In Four Months
    PBOC Injects The Most Liquidity In Four Months

    China’s central bank added the most cash to the financial system via open-market operations since Sept. 22 as companies finalize some tax payments, according to Bloomberg’s John Liu.

    The People’s Bank of China added a net 248 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repurchase agreements, a day after a similar move involving 278 billion yuan, which in turn followed 75 billion yuan.

    The operation is intended to offset the impact of tax payments and ensure that liquidity in the banking system is reasonably ample, the PBOC said in a statement on Wednesday.

    Meanwhile, money markets rates are climbing, with the benchmark seven-day repo rate on Wednesday increasing for the sixth session to 2.55%, in line for the highest since Nov. 13. Chinese companies need to wrap up certain tax payments for last quarter, such as corporate income taxes.

    “The big injection today will help banks soothe liquidity tightness caused by the tax payments,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.

    “We estimate the size of tax payments to be about 700 billion yuan, and the impact will last three to four days from January 19 to 22.”

    The yield on government bonds due in a decade fell as much as 2 basis points before trading little changed at 3.16%.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 22:01

  • Rabobank On President Biden: Now What
    Rabobank On President Biden: Now What

    By Philip Marey, senior US strategist at Rabobank

    Summary

    • Today, Joe Biden was inaugurated as President of the United States. In his first ten days in office, President Biden is expected to sign a flurry of executive actions aimed at Covid-19, the economy and climatechange.
    • The two Democratic victories in the Georgia run-off elections have opened the door to expansive fiscal policy in the next two years. For the near-term, Biden has proposed the American Rescue Plan. For the remainder of his term he is expected to announce a Recovery Plan next month. According to our calculations, Biden’s plans would provide a boost to economic growth, also in the long run.
    • However, the question is how much of his plans can be realized, given the minimal Democratic majority in the Senate. It would take only one centrist democratic senator to block a Biden initiative. Consequently, the internal divisions in the Democratic party will come to the forefront in the coming two years. In this sense, Biden’s style may be more reminiscent of that of a prime minister trying to hold together a broad and shaky coalition.
    • Under a Biden administration foreign and trade policy will remain focused on meeting the challenge of China as the main rival of the US. However, Biden is likely to return to a multilateral approach.
    • The contested elections have left the United States with legitimacy issues regarding Biden’s presidency.In fact, a majority of Republican voters does not even believe Biden is the legitimate president of the United States.While we expect Biden’s policies to boost economic growth, we do not expect them to end the vicious cycle of polarization and social unrest that is undermining the country

    Introduction

    Today, Joe Biden was inaugurated as President of the United States. In his first ten days in office, President Biden is expected to sign a flurry of executive actions aimed at Covid-19, the economy and climate change.Biden intends to sign orders expanding testing for Covid-19, protecting workers from the pandemic and establishing public health standards. He also wants to mandate the use of face masks on federal property and for interstate travel on airlines, trains and transit systems.Biden is also expected to keep in place restrictions on evictions and foreclosures and to extend a suspension of interest-free student loan payments.Biden wants to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord and put an end to the Keystone XL pipeline.The reversal of the deregulation of the Trump year swill have an early start.

    Biden’s growth impulse

    The two Democratic victories in the Senate run-off elections in Georgia on January 5 have opened the door to expansive fiscal policy in the next two years. In the near term, this means a substantial additional Covid relief package. But it also means an expansive fiscal policy in the next two years, aimed at stimulating economic growth. Biden wants to invest more in education, R&D, and infrastructure. The Democrats want to pay for this partly through higher taxes. The budget deficit is likely to increase further. But our calculations show that Biden’s plans could provide a substantial impulse to economic growth, also in the long run. Biden’s fiscal policy initiatives are split up in a near-term covid relief plan (American Rescue Plan) and a medium-to-long term plan (“Recovery Plan”). He presented the first on January 14 and is expected to release the second in February.

    The American Rescue Plan

    While it took Congress relatively little time to agree on the well over $2 trillion CARES Act back in March last year, it took until December to come up with a $900 billion follow-up. However, the two Democratic victories in the Senate run-off elections in Georgia on January 5 have opened the door to more covid relief.On January 14, Biden presented his American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion package that includes additional direct payments of $1400 to Americans (in addition to the $600 from the December package), an increase in federal unemployment benefits to $400 (from $300) per week and an extension through September(from March), and increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour(from $7.25 since 2009). The rescue package can be divided in three large chunks: $1 trillion in direct relief to households, $440 billion for small businesses and communities that were hit particularly hard by the pandemic, and $415 billion for virus response. At present, it is uncertain how much of this plan will be approved by the Senate. For example, there is doubt about the effectiveness of sending people checks without knowing if they really need it. Not only Republicans have their doubts, but also a centrist Democratic senator such as Joe Manchin.

    The American Recovery Plan

    As for the coming years, Biden is expected to present a Recovery Plan in February. Biden is expected to invest more in education, R&D, and infrastructure. Even if only part of Biden’s plans materialize -the Democratic majority in the Senate is minimal-, we expect a boost to GDP growth in 2021 and beyond.While there may be some common ground between Democrats and Republicans on infrastructure, for a large part they are thinking about different forms of infrastructure. While Republicans may be willing to spend federal money on highways, bridges and airports, Democrats are thinking of green infrastructure facilitating clean energy and electric vehicles.

    Although markets are focusing on Biden’s spending spree, we should not forget that tax hikes are also part of his plans. They may not be at the top of his list given the covid crisis, but once the economy regains momentum tax hikes may come back to the surface. Meanwhile, we should not lose sight of the fact that not all businesses and households have suffered due to the covid outbreak. Some have actually done quite well, so they should be able to absorb a higher tax rate.During her Senate confirmation hearings for the position of Treasury Secretary, on January 19, Janet Yellen said that the Biden team does not immediately plan to pursue tax increases, but would consider them as part of a later package that focuses on long-term investments.

    Getting plans realized

    The question is how many of Biden’s plans are going to be realized. After all, the Democratic majority in the Senate is minimal. The Republicans have 50 seats and the Democrats 48. However, independent senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King caucus with the Democrats and the Vice-President is the tie-breaker in case of a 50-50 outcome. This means that Kamala Harris is going to be busy and is likely to spend a lot of time on Capitol Hill. Her main contact may very well be Joe Manchin, who is considered to be the most conservative Democratic senator. He will be able to block the more leftist plans of the Democrats on his own. So we cannot simply assume that Biden can realize all his plans just because the Democrats have majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. In the next two years the differences within the Democratic Party will come to the forefront, instead of the differences between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party as in the last four years. How many of Biden’s plans are going to be realized no longer depends on Senate Republicans after the Georgia elections, but on centrist Senate Democrats.In this sense, Biden’s style may be more reminiscent of that of a prime minister trying to hold together a broad and shaky coalition,ranging from centrists to democratic socialists.

    Increasing polarization

    While Biden’s economic plans are expected to boost the economy, they will probably not reduce the polarization in politics and society. The ever increasing polarization of US politics and society has reached a level that poses a serious threat to the stability of the country. The question is now: is this the culmination of the civil unrest in the United States, or is this just another warning signal that the country is heading toward something worse? If we look at the underlying mechanism of polarization, it appears tobe self-reinforcing. New events or information will be interpreted through two different filters, such as CNN and Fox. What’s more, economic policies aimed at income redistribution will not appease Trump supporters, as we explained in Economy or identity. The Trump vote is not about the economy, it’s about identity. Biden’s plans do not offer a solution to these anxieties. If the US does not find an off-ramp from this route of increasing polarization, we are only going to see a further escalation of civil unrest.

    In fact, a majority of Republican voters does not even believe Biden is the legitimate president of the United States.As we argued in Election meltdown, this was going to be the case no matter who would be sworn in. With Trump claiming in advance that the elections were rigged and the Democrats spurring their voters to go to the polls to avoid all kinds of nightmare scenarios, how much trust in the election outcome were voters supposed to have if their side would lose? Meanwhile, foreign adversaries such as the Russians, Chinese and Iranians, are likely to amplify the mutual distrust through cyber warfare. As we concluded in Civil unrest, no matter who would have won the elections, the turbulence in US politics and society is not likely to pass. This was only the beginning.

    Return to multilateralism

    When it comes to foreign policy, trade policy and international climate policy the Biden administration intends to return to the multilateral approach of the Obama years. Multilateralism does not necessarily mean that the US will go soft on all its rivals and enemies. Rather it means that it will not go at them alone, but instead (re)build coalitions.During his Senate confirmation hearing for the job of Secretary of State, on January 19, Antony Blinken said that he will work to revitalize damaged American diplomacy and build a united front to counter the challenges posed by Russia, China and Iran.However, we should note that America’s leadership of the free world has credibility issues after four years of Trump’s go at it alone approach. What’s more, America’s moral leadership has also lost credibility after the insurrection. In fact, it is already being exploited by America’s adversaries.

    During his Senate confirmation hearing Blinken said that there was no doubt China posed the most significant challenge to the US of any nation, and believed there was a very strong foundation to build a bipartisan policy to stand up to Beijing. While the US is heavily polarized on domestic topics, there is a broad consensus on China. According to the Pew Center, the percentage of survey respondents who say they have an unfavorable opinion of China has risen in the last 15 years from a minority to a majority. And this is true of Democrats and Republicans, even though Republicans always score higher than Democrats on this topic. So there is some common ground abroad for Democrats and Republicans. However, on other issues, such as international climate agreements, Biden  – feeling pressure from left wing Democrats – will be at odds with the Republicans.

    Conclusion

    Biden has an ambitious agenda, but he has only two years with the certainty of a Democratic majority in the Senate. If the Republicans flip just one seat in the November 2022 midterms, it will all be over by January 2023 and the Republican Senate will shoot down most if not all of Biden’s remaining plans. And during these first two years he only has a minimal majority in the Senate, which means that just one centrist Democratic senator can block an initiative. What’s more, the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives has been reduced. Meanwhile, the country is heavily divided and a majority of Republican voters does not even believe Biden is the legitimate president of the United States. Biden’s plans do not address the anxieties that fuel this divide. So while we expect Biden’s policies to boost economic growth, we do not expect them to end the vicious cycle of polarization and social unrest that is undermining the United States

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 21:45

  • Biden To Keep Up Trump's Venezuela Regime-Change Policy
    Biden To Keep Up Trump’s Venezuela Regime-Change Policy

    The Biden administration has said it will continue to formally recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as president of Venezuela, despite Nicolás Maduro clearly being the actual leader of the socialist country.

    Biden’s nominee for secretary of state Anthony Blinken told Senators on Tuesday that Guaido will be the recognized leader, a policy which began in January 2019 when the opposition leader dubbed himself ‘Interim President’ and also ‘Acting President’ at the encouragement of Washington during Trump admin attempts to foment a military and popular uprising against Maduro.

    During his remarks Blinken also indicated the new administration will keep up the sanctions. “We need an effective policy that can restore Venezuela to democracy, starting with free and fair elections,” he said.

    He said Biden will seek “more effectively target” economic punitive measures in efforts to make Maduro step aside and allow Juan Guaido to take up position, according to Reuters

    Blinkin further said he believes the US should not enter into negotiations with Maduro for the end of sanctions or some kind of relief, but instead vowed that Caracas must “really feel the pain”.

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    Currently the OPEC nation is gaining help from Iran and Russia in circumventing a US oil and fuel blockade. US sanctions aim to prevent crude being exported out and gasoline being imported for domestic use (Venezuela’s derelict refineries have been incapable of processing enough fuel to keep up domestic demand).

    While Guaido is also recognized as president by over a dozen US allies, the majority of countries – including powerful Russia and China – do not. He’s long claimed Maduro’s 2018 reelection was “rigged” – something which the US has also maintained.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 21:25

  • "Even Libertarians": John Brennan Issues 'List' Of Ideologies Biden Intel Community Should Go After
    “Even Libertarians”: John Brennan Issues ‘List’ Of Ideologies Biden Intel Community Should Go After

    Well this is alarming and ominous to say the least… Former CIA Director John Brennan told MSNBC in an interview on inauguration day that the intelligence community under newly sworn in President Biden is “moving in laser-like fashion” to try and uncover dangerous plots against the country.

    Naturally, there’s been much of this worrisome commentary about what political ideologies should be targeted and monitored coming out of NatSec hawks in the wake of the Capitol Hill mayhem of January 6. But this is the first time such a broad array of groups have been so bluntly lumped into a Pro-Trump “insurgency” by an influential media pundit and former spook. Brennan expressly said they are “violent” and remain a domestic threat.

    He said in the MSNBC interview without the least concern for violation of Americans’ rights that intelligence agencies should look into “religious extremists, authoritarians, fascists, bigots, racists, nativists, even libertarians…”.

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    He said these belief systems have come together under the umbrella of a supposed pro-Trump movement capable of committing violence. 

    Ah yes, “even libertarians”… 

    “I had white knuckles because of the nature of the threats,” he began by recalling his days as CIA Director. We’ve seen “the growth of this polarization in the United States and domestic violence and White supremacist groups,” he continued.

    Comparing this “threat” to a foreign insurgency which the US has lately battled overseas, he said it

    “brings together an unholy alliance of religious extremists, authoritarians, fascists, bigots, racists, nativists, even libertarians.”

    He added: “And unfortunately I think there’s been this momentum that generated as a result of unfortunately the demagogic rhetoric of people that’s just departed government, but also those who continue in the halls of Congress and so I really do think that the law enforcement, homeland security, intelligence, and even the defense officials are doing everything possible to root out what seems to be a very very serious and insidious threat to our democracy and our republic.”

    Interestingly, Brennan spoke as if these groups are already being looked into and spotlighted by US intelligence under Biden. “Even Libertarians,” apparently.

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    Increasingly, it looks like Inauguration Day for intelligence insiders like Brennan represents “Deep State back on top” in America.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 21:05

  • Tesla Investigating Model 3 Fire In Shanghai After Collision Causes Battery Short Circuit
    Tesla Investigating Model 3 Fire In Shanghai After Collision Causes Battery Short Circuit

    Tesla is reportedly cooperating with a fire department in Shanghai in trying to find the cause of what is being calling a “Model 3 fire incident” that took place on Wednesday night.

    A Model 3 caught fire in an underground garage after a “collision below the vehicle” may have caused a battery short circuit, according to reports from Bloomberg and ShineStop us if you’ve heard this one before.

    Both Tesla and the owner acknowledge that a collision under the vehicle may have been the cause of the battery catching fire.

    The fire took place in Qibao, Minhang District and photos of the vehicle show a burnt Model 3 surrounded by foam used by firefighters. The car “was parked close to the entrance of the garage,” the report notes. 

    Recall, mysterious fires popping up in China – in addition to sudden unintended acceleration and consumer complaints – were two of the reasons we cited in our recent piece suggesting that Elon Musk’s Chinese fairy tale could eventually come to an end. 

    As we noted then, so far Musk has been able to sidestep some ugly press in China, including out of control Tesla vehiclesforced recalls, constant price cuts and disgruntled customersSo far, Musk is holding it together in China.

    Incidents like this one won’t help. We look forward to hearing the result of Tesla’s totally unbiased investigation. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 20:45

  • "Perfect Storm…Not Of Our Doing" – Fauci-Led Biden Team Suddenly Stunned By Virus Surge Created By Fauci-Led Trump Team
    “Perfect Storm…Not Of Our Doing” – Fauci-Led Biden Team Suddenly Stunned By Virus Surge Created By Fauci-Led Trump Team

    Even before President Biden was officially sworn in, corporate American was already rearing to have his back. Earlier this week, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel told the press that his company was on track to produce 100MM COVID vaccine doses by the end of Biden’s first 100 days, as expected, while a top Amazon exec sent Biden a letter asking if there was anything Amazon could do to help with the vaccine rollout (meanwhile, a “logistical hiccup” by McKesson forced the rescheduling of 23K injections).

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    Now, after Wall Street already declared “the beginning of the end” of the COVID pandemic, Bloomberg News is pitching in with a little CYA, publishing a report claiming Biden’s Dr. Fauci led White House COVID team is now seeing that the outlook for the US pandemic is worse than they had believed…presumably because the Trump COVID team (also led by Dr. Fauci) kept them in the dark.

    The Biden team, Bloomberg says, is “increasingly worried the coronavirus pandemic is spiraling out of control – imperiling his promise to contain the outbreak – as cases and deaths mount, vaccinations lag and a more-transmissible strain emerges in the US.”

    The way the editors framed the issue, they made it sound as if any potential surge in cases later in the year – for whatever reason, even something totally unforeseen like more viral mutations (the other day, brazilian media warned of a new hyper-infectious strain emerging in the Amazon) – would be President Trump’s fault, not Biden’s and the Democrats.

    As they learned more about the federal response to the pandemic, Biden’s transition team grew alarmed at a lack of coordination with states, the people said. Biden himself has warned of a “dark winter” and has flatly said the pandemic will worsen before it improves.

    The stakes are escalating. U.S. hospitalizations are at near-record levels, and daily cases and deaths have doubled since Election Day on Nov. 3. While blame has fallen on the Trump administration for its failure to develop a national testing or vaccination strategy or encourage widespread mask-wearing, Biden’s team – which keeps adding new experts – now inherits the job of containing the pandemic.

    On Thursday, Biden will sign executive actions to “move aggressively to change the course of the Covid-19 crisis and safely re-open schools and businesses, including by taking action to mitigate spread through expanding testing, protecting workers, and establishing clear public health standards,” according to a memo by Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff. After taking office on Wednesday, one of Biden’s first acts was expected to be an order requiring face masks on federal property.

    But why does Bloomberg feel the need to engage in this type of defensive cover? Well, presumably because some of the “experts” (who perhaps have been afraid to speak up and question the official narrative on masks, lockdowns and vaccines) truly are concerned that none of the palliatives actually work – though they probably wouldn’t tell you that if you asked them

    But the risk of explosive new strains, including a UK variant known as B.1.1.7, threatens to upend it all and leave Biden at the end of his first 100 days with a pandemic that has worsened, instead of improved. There’s concern among his team that the scope of the problem he’s inherited is far worse than anticipated, posing a political risk to Biden’s White House.

    […]

    The most alarming developments have come over the past month. Some Biden advisers, who asked not to be identified discussing internal conversations, said it isn’t vaccine logistics that worry them most, but the new strain of the virus, which is more contagious. The US already has a perilously high baseline caseload – about 230,000 new infections a day, of late – that could quickly become unmanageable as the mutant strain takes hold.

    “This administration is inheriting such a horrible problem, not of their making,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and a member of the coronavirus advisory board for Biden’s transition. “This is a perfect storm.”

    Some twitter users apparently saw through Bloomberg’s CYA operation on behalf of the new administration, and mocked it accordingly.

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    Meanwhile, earlier today, a top Israeli health official announced that the Pfizer vaccine, which the country has used to carry out one of the most comprehensive vaccination programs in the world, is only 50% effective, roughly half the 95% that the “Phase 3 trial data” suggested.

    Even with Israel apparently well on its way to herd immunity (or so they say) the country has moved to extend its lockdown once again, this time until the end of the month. Like the Biden White House scientists reportedly told Bloomberg, their biggest fear is that the mutations – which these same experts said just months ago showed no evidence of being a problem – will make the virus more deadly, more infectious, or more difficult to contain with the vaccines, as we continue to head into a future full of unknowns.

    But just remember…whatever happens over the next year…it’s still Donald Trump’s fault.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 20:25

  • Biden Signs First 17 Executive Actions Starting With Mask Mandate, "Racial Equality" & Rejoining Paris Accord
    Biden Signs First 17 Executive Actions Starting With Mask Mandate, “Racial Equality” & Rejoining Paris Accord

    Update (1810ET): Biden has finished signing his first 15 executive orders and 2 executive agency directives, according to a White House pool reporter with the Washington Post.

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    These include orders for the US to rejoin the WHO, the Paris Accord, a commitment to racia equality, a federal mask “challenge” mandate. Taking only a couple of minutes to speak to reporters in the Oval, Biden listed the three orders he would sign first and answered a question about a letter he was left by his predecessor Donald Trump, calling it “very generous.”

    * * *

    Update (1745ET): Biden officially kicked off his one-day blitz of executive orders and executive actions, as expected, by signing them in front of an eager crowd of media, which has been following him around all day on his first day in office.

    Biden kicked off the flurry of what are expected to be 17 or more individual executive action items by requiring masks on all federal grounds, while asking agencies to extend moratoriums on evictions and on federal student loan payments. He also signed an order overturning Trump’s travel ban order.

    Another order asks Americans to don face coverings for 100 days while reviving a global health unit in the National Security Council that was allowed to go dormant during the Trump administration to oversee America’s pandemic preparedness and response. Biden will also begin to reverse steps taken by former President Trump to withdraw from the WHO by sending Dr. Fauci to speak at the international group’s executive board meeting on Thursday.

    “As you’ve heard [Biden] say, the pandemic will continue to get worse before it gets better,” Jeff Zients, the incoming White House coronavirus czar, told reporters on a call previewing the administration’s actions. “This is clearly a national emergency and we will treat it as such.”

    Biden also signed an EO to stop construction of border wall-work ordered under President Trump, even as Fox News reported that the contract with the construction company was already paid out.

    Here’s a video from Sky News showing Biden as he starts the flurry of orders, with signings expected to continue until the first White House press briefing to be held at 1900ET.

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    Here’s the schedule for the rest of the day after that:

    1900ET: News briefing to be held by new press secretary Jen Psaki
    2030ET:  ‘Celebrate America Primetime Special’ begins on US TV to replace traditional inaugural ball
    2050ET: Joe Biden to speak
    2115ET: Kamala Harris to speak
    2155ET: President and First Lady to appear on Blue Room Balcony on South Lawn to watch fireworks

     

     

     

     

     

     

    With just hours to go before his swearing-in, Joe Biden and his team have already started Wednesday with a blitz of announcements for Executive Orders that will be issued immediately.

    Following at least a week’s worth of media leaks teasing all the Biden “Day One” action items (Rejoin the Paris Accords, Keystone Pipeline, Halt the departure from the WTO, But mostly the massive immigration package that could create paths to citizenship for millions of illegal migrants), Biden is moving ahead with no fewer than 17 executive actions targeting Trump’s various policies.

    CNN reports there will be a total of 17 executive actions, at least 15 of those will be executive orders targeting a range of issues, while Biden pushes his immigration package and a raft of immigration legislation. Of these 17 actions, 9 will involve reversals of Trump-era policies.

    His very first action will an executive order mandating masks be worn by all on federal property.

    And after holding a COVID victim’s memorial event on Tuesday evening, timed to maximally undermine Trump, who was at a private farewell ceremony at Joint Base Andrews

    The FT reports that the barrage of orders also includes a “100-day masking challenge” to promote the wearing of face masks across the US, with a guest appearance by Dr. Anthony Fauci, who will (shocker of the century) serve as the media face of the challenge.

    As expected, Biden will also roll back the Trump travel ban on citizens of certain Muslim -majority countries introduced at the very beginning of the Trump Administration, which survived a bitter court battle that infamously occupied plenty of headline space during the first half of 2017. It also sent protesters rushing to airports around the country as some travelers were caught up in the chaos.

    “It was rooted in xenophobia and religious animus and president-elect Biden has been clear that we will not turn our back on our values with discriminatory bans on entry to the United States,” Jake Sullivan, Biden’s pick for national security adviser, said of the Muslim ban recently during a briefing.

    Biden will sign the EOs and other memoranda in the Oval Office on Wednesday afternoon, his incoming press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters.

    Psaki confirmed that, as we have previously reported, Biden plans to accompany his slate of EOs with a comprehensive immigration package that will be sent to Congress straightaway, where it will need to be passed by the (Democrat-controlled) House and Senate.

    We have also noted previously that the day one orders will be part of a “10-day blitz” of orders, upon which we have previously reported, they will target the “four overlapping and compounding crises”: COVID-19, the economy, climate change and racial inequality.

    “In his first 10 days in office, President-elect Biden will take decisive action to address these four crises, prevent other urgent and irreversible harms, and restore America’s place in the world,” Klain wrote at the time.

    Other ’10-day blitz’ items include presidential directives on safely reopening schools and businesses, after Democrats spent much of last year insisting they remain closed.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 20:12

  • "We Want Revenge": Antifa Anarchists Activate After Biden Inaugurated
    “We Want Revenge”: Antifa Anarchists Activate After Biden Inaugurated

    Update (2031ET): Someone on Twitter points out that Antifa.com is being redirected to whitehouse.gov. Watch below: 

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    * * *

    Update (2021ET): While the mainstream media and the federal government drummed up imminent threats of right-wing violence during the presidential inauguration at state capitol buildings, nothing happened that was significant in reporting. 

    Meanwhile, after the Biden inauguration, leftist groups, such as Antifa, are causing chaos in multiple cities. 

    * * *

    Update (2034ET): Antifa is marching in multiple cities. The latest is Seattle, according to AntifaWatch

    “Some property damage, likely ENDD, they are headed Northbound,” AntifaWatch said, quoting a police scanner.

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    Chaos appears to be unfolding. 

    Antifa is burning an American flag. 

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    Antifa is on the move in Seattle’s downtown district. 

    “An Amazon Go store is graffitied and window smashed in downtown Seattle,” tweeted Brendan Gutenschwager

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    Seattle Police confirm multiple businesses were vandalized by Antifa. 

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    * * *

    Update (2018ET): Portland’s KATU News says Portland Police are arresting protesters at the “J-20 march.”

    * * *

    A group of violent demonstrators gathered in Southeast Portland on Wednesday afternoon, hours after President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were sworn in at the US Capitol. The leftist anti-government group appeared displeased with the new administration as they attacked the building of the Democratic Party of Oregon.

    Local news KGW reports the group of at least 100 people, dressed in all black, marched through Portland. 

    KGW’s Mike Benner posted a series of tweets showing the chaos unfolding in Portland as there was “significant damage at the Democratic Party of Oregon bldg at 9th & Everett.” 

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    Videos Benners posted shows group members, dressed in all black, are likely radical leftist, Antifa. 

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    Despite President Biden pleading for national unity in his Inaugural Address today, demonstrators in Portland held up signs that read:

    “We are ungovernable” and “A new world from the ashes.” 

    Conservative journalist Andy Ngo tweeted “shocking footage of Antifa” smashing the Democratic Party of Oregon building. So much for unity… 

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    Another local news station, KATU, said the protest in Portland this afternoon is called the “J20 protest.”

    “We Don’t Want Biden – We Want Revenge!” another banner read. 

    Already, there have been reports that some of the demonstrators have attacked police officers. 

    “The group of roughly 100 people started marching north shortly after 3 p.m. and reached the Democratic Party of Oregon’s Portland headquarters shortly before 4 p.m.,” said KATU.

    “Members of this group have been observed damaging the building. Anyone involved in criminal behavior, including vandalism and graffittiing is subject to arrest or citation,” Portland Police Bureau tweeted.

    More demonstrations are planned for this evening, according to police. 

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    Besides Portland, so-called Antifa mobs were seen burning American flags outside Colorado’s Capitol building. The Sun describes the group as a “militant left-wing-group.” 

    Reports keep pouring in as Antifa groups assemble in other cities. Twitter user Jason Whitman said an Antifa march was spotted at the Ohio Capitol building this afternoon. 

    With reports of leftist anti-government groups, or possibly Antifa as some claim, are on a path of destruction in multiple cities following the Biden inauguration. There are reports Antifa is planning to attack Trump supporters this week. 

    The militant leftist group seeks to dismantle the federal government; it comes at the president calls for national unity. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 20:05

  • MSM Calls For "New Definition Of Free Speech"
    MSM Calls For “New Definition Of Free Speech”

    Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

    Part of the main duty of OffGuardian is to troll through the masses of media output and try and pick up patterns. Sometimes the patterns are subtle, a gentle urging behind the paragraphs. Sometimes they’re more like a sledgehammer to the face.

    This has been face-hammer week. In fact, it’s been a face-hammer year.

    From “flatten the curve” to “the new normal” to “the great reset”, it’s not been hard to spot the messaging going on since the start of the “pandemic”. And that distinct lack of disguise has carried over into other topics, too.

    We pointed out, a few days ago, the sudden over-use of the phrase “domestic terrorism” preparing us for what is, almost certainly, going to be a truly horrendous piece of new legislation once Biden is in office.

    Well, the buzz-phrase doing the rounds in the wake of Donald Trump being banned from the internet is “the new definition of free speech”…and variations on that theme.

    Firstly, and papers on both sides of the Atlantic want to be very clear about this, Donald Trump being banned simultaneously from every major social network is not in any way inhibiting his free speech.

    Indeed none of the tens of thousands of people banned from twitter et al. have had their free speech infringed either. Neither have any of the proprietors – or users – of the Parler app which the tech giants bullied out of existence.

    Free Speech is totally intact no matter how many people are banned or deplatformed, the media all agree on that (even the allegedly pro-free speech think tanks).

    They also agree that maybe…it shouldn’t be. Maybe “free speech” is too dangerous in our modern era, and needs a “new definition”.

    That’s what Ian Dunt writing in Politics.co.uk thinks, anyway, arguing it’s time to have a “grown-up debate” about free speech.

    The Financial Times agrees, asking about the “limits of free-speech in the internet era”.

    Thomas Edsall, in the New York Times, wonders aloud if Trump’s “lies” have made free speech a “threat to democracy”.

    The Conversation, a UK-based journal often at the cutting edge of the truly terrifying ideas, has three different articles about redefining or limiting free speech, all published within 4 days of each other.

    There’s Free speech is not guaranteed if it harms others, a drab piece of dishonest apologia which argues Trump wasn’t silenced, because he could make a speech which the media would cover…without also mentioning that the media has, en masse, literally refused to broadcast several of Trump’s speeches in the last couple of months.

    The conclusion could have been written by an algorithm analysing The Guardian’s twitter feed:

    the suggestion Trump has been censored is simply wrong. It misleads the public into believing all “free speech” claims have equal merit. They do not. We must work to ensure harmful speech is regulated in order to ensure broad participation in the public discourse that is essential to our lives — and to our democracy.

    Then there’s Free speech in America: is the US approach fit for purpose in the age of social media?, a virtual carbon copy of the first, which states:

    The attack on the Capitol exposed, in stark terms, the dangers of disinformation in the digital age. It provides an opportunity to reflect on the extent to which certain elements of America’s free speech tradition may no longer be fit for purpose.

    And finally, my personal favourite, Why ‘free speech’ needs a new definition in the age of the internet and Trump tweets in which author Peter Ives warns of the “weaponising of free speech” and concludes:

    Trump’s angry mob was not just incited by his single speech on Jan. 6, but had been fomenting for a long time online. The faith in reason held by Mill and Kant was premised on the printing press; free speech should be re-examined in the context of the internet and social media.

    Ives clearly thinks he’s enlightened and liberal and educated, after all he drops references to Kant AND Mills (that’s right TWO famous philosophers), but he’s really not. He’s just an elitist arguing working class people are too dumb to be allowed to speak, or even hear ideas that might get them all riled-up and distract them from their menial labour.

    To season these stale ideas with a sprinkling of fear-porn, NBC News is reporting that the FBI didn’t report their “concerns” over possible violence at the Capitol, because they were worried about free speech. (See, if the FBI hadn’t been protecting people’s free speech, that riot may not have happened!)

    And on top of all of that, there’s the emotional manipulation angle, where authors pretend to be sad or exasperated or any of the emotions they used to have.

    In the Irish Independent, Emma Kelly says that “free speech” doesn’t include “hate speech” (she’s never exactly clear what part of “go home in peace love” was hate speech though).

    In The Hill, Joe Ferullo is almost in tears that the first amendment has been ruined by the right-wing press continuously “shouting fire in a crowded theatre”, citing the famous Oliver Wendell Holmes quote, which so many use to “qualify” the idea of free speech, without realising it hands over power to destroy it completely.

    Up until you can show me the hard-and-fast legal definitions of “shout”, “fire”, “crowded” and “theatre”, this open-ended qualification is nothing but a blank canvas, free to be interpreted as loosely – or stringently – as any lawmaker or judiciary feels is necessary.

    As an example:

    Twitter is certainly bigger and more populated than a theatre, and spreading anti-vaccination/anti-war/pro-Russia/”Covid denial” news [delete as appropriate] is certainly going to cause more panic than one single building being on fire. Isn’t it?

    It’s this potential abuse of incredibly loose terminologies which will be used to “redefine” free speech.

    “Offensive”, “misinformation”, “hate speech” and others will be repeated. A lot.

    Expressions which have no solid definition under law, and are already being shown to mean nothing to the media talking heads who repeat them ad nauseum.

    If “go home in peace and love”, can become “inciting violence”, absolutely everything can be made to mean absolutely anything.

    The more they “redefine” words, the further we move into an Orwellian world where all meaning is entirely lost.

    And what would our newly defined “free speech” really mean in such a world?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 19:45

  • China Mocks "Doomsday Clown" Pompeo After 'Genocide' Designation For Uighur Persecution
    China Mocks “Doomsday Clown” Pompeo After ‘Genocide’ Designation For Uighur Persecution

    On Tuesday, the last day of the Trump administration, then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pulled the trigger on a long debated topic and policy proposal in Washington – namely to officially label Chinese persecution of the country’s Uighur minority as “genocide”.

    Predictably Beijing was quick to voice its outrage. But with the Trump administration now out the door China let some colorful words fly. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying called Pompeo a “doomsday clown” while charging him with spreading blatant lies.

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    She further said the US genocide designation slapped on China is based on “outright sensational pseudo-propositions and a malicious farce concocted by individual anti-China and anti-Communist forces represented by Pompeo,” as quoted in the Associated Press.

    “In our view, Pompeo’s so-called designation is a piece of wastepaper. This American politician, who is notorious for lying and deceiving, is turning himself into a doomsday clown and joke of the century with his last madness and lies of the century,” Hua added.

    Pompeo’s Tuesday declaration had underscored that future Biden policies are likely to only embolden China. It was significant eleventh-hour declaration against Beijing using the strongest language thus far on the issue.

    Alleged Uighur ‘re-education’ camp, via Reuters

    “If the Chinese Communist Party is allowed to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against its own people, imagine what it will be emboldened to do to the free world, in the not-so-distant future,” Pompeo said in the statement

    Meanwhile, any Biden reversals on Trump’s targeted sanctions on Chinese officials especially early in his administration – particularly related to the Hong Kong issue – will make the Democratic administration look “soft”. But this is precisely what such statements as Pompeo’s latest were designed to do.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 19:25

  • Humpday Humor: 15 Ways To Cope When You Don't Like The President
    Humpday Humor: 15 Ways To Cope When You Don’t Like The President

    Via Babylon Bee,

    It can be tough to live in a country where you don’t like the president. Luckily, our friends on the left have shown us how to handle this situation with grace and class over the past four years.

    Here are 15 easy ways to cope when you don’t like the president:

    1. Put on a neon vest and shriek at the sky.

    2. Accuse him of colluding with a foreign adversary with no evidence while sleeping with a Chinese spy.

    3. Impeach him at least 73 times.

    4. Riot in every major city, set fires, and loot for weeks on end for like 6 months going strong – but whatever you do, DO NOT riot at the Capitol or you’re a traitor.

    5. Make every late-night show joke some variation of  ‘your president bad.’

    6. Have all comedians stop doing comedy and instead spend every waking minute tweeting at the president with some sort of expletive-laden Braveheart speech. Get Stephen King to do it too.

    7. Immediately assume half the country is secretly Nazis.

    8. When dining out, scream at all the other diners that we now live under a dictator between bites.

    9. Take 12 months worth of hormonal birth control at once and scream into your camera.

    10. Get a permanent face mask with ‘stay 6 feet away’ printed on it.

    11. Keep all of your friends and family that agree with you close enough to hear the echo in the room.

    12. Research every actor and musician to make sure they all align perfectly with everything you believe before enjoying any of their art.

    13. Tell everyone that diversity only counts if it’s for your side.

    14. Keep the news on 24 hours a day and never leave the house. Always be on Twitter and your phone. Make sure you know everything the president is doing at all times.

    15.  Weep uncontrollably until 2024.

    Scream it with us.

    Ready?

    1… 2… 3…

    NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 19:06

  • Watch Live: Biden Administration Holds First White House Press Briefing
    Watch Live: Biden Administration Holds First White House Press Briefing

    The White House press corps probably hasn’t been this happy since Nov. 7, 2016.

    Hours after Wednesday’s socially-distanced inauguration, which featured a field of flags and a small number of VIPs, ended, President Joe Biden is about to hold his first press briefing in office.

    After Wednesday’s inauguration and a stopover to meet with Congressional leaders for the first time, President-elect Biden received an escort to the White House at 1500ET. After that, Biden signed a flurry of executive orders and implemented other presidential actions, which were first officially announced Wednesday morning.

    Now, incoming Biden Press Secretary Jen Psaki will no doubt give the press pool members and opportunity to ask questions about all the great new policies being unilaterally ordered by Joe Biden (in a manner reminiscent of President Trump’s EOs, which Dems once slammed as bypassing Congress), and how much better they are than the policies adopted by Trump and his administration.

    In her first tweet form the @PressSec account, Psaki asked the public to tweet questions at her, promising to answer a few in a video earlier in the week.

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    Biden will also swear in “day one presidential appointees” in a virtual ceremony Wednesday evening.

    The public should probably expect briefings from Psaki, Biden, Harris and members of the administration (including, of course, Dr. Fauci) every day for at least the next 10 days as Biden prepares his opening blitz of policies intended to undo President Trump’s legacy.

    Watch the briefing live below. It’s slated to start at 1900ET.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/20/2021 – 18:55

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