Today’s News 23rd July 2020

  • "War" Top Trend On Greek Twitter As Military On 'High Alert' Over Turkish Drilling Incursion
    “War” Top Trend On Greek Twitter As Military On ‘High Alert’ Over Turkish Drilling Incursion

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/23/2020 – 02:45

    Greek news sources are reporting that Greece’s military is on “high alert” after on Tuesday Turkish survey ships entered East Mediterranean waters between Cyprus and Greece.

    And Reuters reports that “Greece accused Turkey on Tuesday of attempting to encroach on its continental shelf in a serious escalation of tensions between the two NATO allies at odds over a range of issues.”

    For much of the past year European Union leaders have condemned Turkey’s expansive claims to broad swathes of Mediterranean waters around Cyprus and reaching into Greece’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The US State Department is also backing Greece’s condemnation of Turkish encroachment. Meanwhile, the number one trending hashtag in Greek Twitter right now happens to be war.

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    On Tuesday a US State Department statement demanded that Turkey back down from its drilling plans which are sure to immediately escalation already soaring tensions. 

    “We urge Turkish authorities to halt any plans for operations and to avoid steps that raise tensions in the region,” the statement said. And Greece’s foreign ministry said it clearly violates the country’s sovereignty and that it stands ready to defend its territory.

    This as not for the first time a pair of Turkish F-16s reportedly flew over Greece’s easternmost territory, including the islands of Strongyli and Megisti. Greece’s prime minister also said this week that EU sanctions await Turkey if it moves forward with illegal drilling.

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    Reuters: “An advisory known as a Navtex was issued by Turkey’s navy on Tuesday for seismic surveys in an area of sea between Cyprus and Crete. The advisory is in effect until Aug. 20.

    A number of very recent issues have already significantly built-up tensions. To review:

    • Turkey’s provocative move to turn the historic Byzantine Hagia Sophia church into a mosque.
    • Continued historic animosity over ethnically-partitioned Cyprus.
    • Turkish claims to all waters surrounding Cyprus.
    • Recent border tensions involving Erdogan sending thousands of Syrians refugees to Greece’s border.
    • Greece’s militarized response along migrant crossing points at the Turkish border.
    • Turkey’s involvement in Libya, which has seen its navy patrols expand into the Mediterranean off the north African coast.

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    Erdogan just made a hugely provocative visit to Hagia Sophia in Istanbul, which a top Turkish court has declared to be a mosque. Via AFP

    All of this means the region stands of the brink, perhaps more than every before, while the Greek navy prepares to prevent Turkish drilling ships to encroach on its territorial waters.

    To underscore where things stand, see this message being widely shared in Greek on social media and via Greek news sourcesGreek social media users are urging people to not post photos, videos or information about Greek military movements.

    Meanwhile Greek stocks saw their biggest daily drop in a month on Tuesday amid the renewed Turkey tensions, while the Turkish lira also felt the pressure, falling further against the dollar, for a total 13% decline so far this year.

  • Pandemic And Hair Trigger Flash Points: An Explosive Situation
    Pandemic And Hair Trigger Flash Points: An Explosive Situation

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/23/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Wayne Madsen via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    As the Covid-19 pandemic continues its deadly march around the world, a number of relatively dormant conflicts, as well as several well-known flash points, stand ready to place the world on the edge of a major armed conflict. History shows us that during times of stress – economic depression, religious strife, vacuums of political leadership, and public health crises like that which is now plaguing the world – the chances for war increase commensurately.

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    India and China, which fought a border war in 1962, are against faced off at several key border locations stretching from Ladakh in the western Himalayas to Arunachal Pradesh in the eastern sector of the mountain range. The resurgent border conflict between the world’s most populous and second-most populous nations is exacerbated by the Covid-19 virus that has taken a toll on what had been the burgeoning economies of both nuclear-armed countries. Deaths and injuries among Indian and Chinese border troops have resulted from fights, with sticks and rocks being used as weapons. A wider and deadlier conflict may result if the weapons used are India’s T-90S tanks and Apache helicopters – now engaged in exercises along the border – and armed Chinese troops that have penetrated some 8 kilometers beyond the 1962 truce line, which is officially called the Line of Actual Control (LAC), in eastern Ladakh. Meanwhile, the number of Covid cases in India has climbed about one million.

    The Korean peninsula went on a war footing as South Korea successfully managed its Covid cases while North Korea, according to many reports, suffered several deaths as the virus spread throughout its population. In June of this year, North Korea ordered the demolition of the joint North Korea-South Korea liaison office building in Kaesong, a North Korean border town. On January 30 of this year, the office was closed due to the pandemic. The massive explosion that felled the four-story building capped off the deterioration of ties between Pyongyang and Seoul that saw their crescendo in 2017, when Donald Trump held his first of three summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The destruction of the Kaesong building also put an end to the policy of South Korean President Moon Jae-in in forging new ties to the North. Trump did not help keeping the peace in Korea when he told a group of governors in February of this year that the South Koreans were “terrible people.” Trump has angered Asian governments from Beijing to Seoul and Tokyo to Singapore with his openly racist comments, which have also included Asians. The pandemic has placed the Sino-Indian border and the 38th Parallel of Korea at the top of the list for flash points that could very well ignite into open warfare.

    In Istanbul, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, reversing the secularization policies enacted by Kemal Ataturk, ordered the Hagia Sophia museum – a mosque under the Ottoman Empire and the main cathedral of Eastern Christianity under the Byzantine Empire – transformed back into a mosque. In 1934, Ataturk decreed that Hagia Sophia was no longer a mosque but a museum open to all. Ataturk also invited Christian experts not restore the ornate Byzantine tiles in the building, which had been plastered over under Ottoman rule. Erdogan rejected calls from Greece to respect the Hagia Sophia and its Christian iconography, setting the stage for further deterioration in relations between Turkey and Greece, both members of NATO. Many Greek nationalists long for the restoration of Constantinople, now Istanbul, and the Hagia Sophia under Greek Orthodox control. Erdogan, who fancies himself as a neo-Ottoman sultan, has done little to placate countries from Greece and Russia to Serbia and Bulgaria that see Islamist control of the Hagia Sophia as an extreme provocation. A number of Turkey’s neighbors have grown irritated over Erdogan and his Muslim Brotherhood-linked policies. A modern “Entente Cordiale” between Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, Iran, Lebanon, the Kurdistan Regional Government, Georgia, the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria and even Egypt and Iraq against Erdogan cannot be ruled out. It is said that a leader can be judged by the opinion that his neighbors have of him. Erdogan remains generally despised by every one of his neighbors.

    Another flash point that could result in a regional war is the initial operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Ethiopia’s obstruction of the natural flow of the Nile River, which serves as the lifeblood for the downriver countries of Egypt and Sudan. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi has made no secret of this threat to bomb the GERD if Ethiopia’s water flow activities affected Egypt. Egypt is relying on the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty, which granted Egypt an annual allocation of Nile water resources plus a veto over any dam construction on the Nile headwaters. The rift between Cairo and Addis Ababa have rekindled old animosities stemming from Egypt’s failed invasion of Ethiopia in 1874. Not helping in calming frayed diplomatic nerves, the pandemic has helped to stoke further tensions in the Horn of Africa, just as it has along the Sino-Indian border, the Korean Peninsula, and Istanbul.

    The global instability brought about by the pandemic also threatens to turn other flashpoints into hot war zones.

    Chief among these is the ongoing civil war in Libya, where the Tripoli government is backed by over 3500 Islamist guerrillas transferred by Turkey from the Syrian front to take on the forces of the rival Libyan government based in the east. Essentially, the Libyan civil war has turned into one between the old Ottoman fiefdom of Tripolitania and the one-time heavily British influenced province of Cyrenaica. The Libyan civil war involves several outside players other than Turkey. These include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

    There are showdowns between the United States and Venezuela, Russia and Ukraine, China and several other countries in the South China Sea, maritime brinkmanship in the Persian Gulf between the United States and Iran, and cross-strait tension between China and Taiwan. One or more of these flashpoints could result in a major regional or global war, especially as nations fear the repercussions of the pandemic affecting their very survival as nation-states.

    In Barbara Tuchman’s widely-acclaimed book on the factors that resulted in the First World War, “The Guns of August,” she wrote, “Human beings, like plans, prove fallible in the presence of those ingredients that are missing in maneuvers – danger, death, and live ammunition.” All the plans of nations large and small to prevent a repeat of the so-called Spanish flu of 1918, which ravaged the battlefield trenches of France, have largely proven ineffective. The world is now being subjected to Tuchman’s danger and death – the danger of the uncontrolled pandemic and the mounting death toll arising from it. The current missing ingredient of live ammunition may, if cooler heads do not prevail, result in a modern-day “guns of August.” Continued economic dislocation and a deepening global recession is all that is needed as a catalyst for military standoffs from the Himalayas and South China Sea to the Caribbean waters off Venezuela and the 38th parallel of Korea to turn into hot war zones purposely or by accident.

  • Election 2020: The Worst Case Scenario Is The Most Likely One
    Election 2020: The Worst Case Scenario Is The Most Likely One

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/23/2020 – 00:00

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    The most frequently asked question I get these days is what is going to happen in November, 2020. The election seems to be on the majority of people’s minds even more so that the coronavirus pandemic. In the summer of 2016 I accurately predicted that Donald Trump would enter the White House and met endless opposition to the idea. At the time, an overwhelming number of analysts in the liberty movement assumed Trump would lose, and that Clinton, by hook or by crook, would become president. Obviously this was not the case.

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    I made the call on a Trump presidency for a number of reasons.  Set aside the fact that the majority of major elections are rigged from within because the elites choose candidates on BOTH sides to run, and lets just look at the simple campaign dynamic at the time.

    For one, Clinton was the worst possible candidate that could have been chosen to run against Trump if they had actually intended on “winning”. The DNC had rigged the primary process against Bernie Sanders in order to push Clinton through, yet she was universally hated not just by conservatives but also by moderate liberals. Democrats tend to draw a larger voter base by running “vibrant” candidates that appeal to younger Americans, yet they ran one of the most twisted and decrepit creatures they had on their roster. Though all the polling said Clinton would win in a landslide, the crowds at her campaign events were tiny and devoid of energy. It was clear that she had zero momentum.

    It was almost as if she was being set up to lose. But why? Trump’s rhetoric was anti-globalist and his calls to “drain the swamp” were resonating with voters. Would this not greatly damage or expose the establishment agenda?

    Here’s what people need to understand…

    Sometimes giving an enemy a false sense of security by allowing them a minor victory is the best strategy. The globalists strategize for the long term; not just for the next 4 years, but for the next 40 years. As Richard N. Gardner, former deputy assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations under Kennedy and Johnson, and a member of the Trilateral Commission, wrote in the April, 1974 issue of the Council on Foreign Relation’s (CFR) journal Foreign Affairs (pg. 558) in an article titled ‘The Hard Road To World Order’:

    In short, the ‘house of world order’ will have to be built from the bottom up rather than from the top down. It will look like a great ‘booming, buzzing confusion,’ to use William James’ famous description of reality, but an end run around national sovereignty, eroding it piece by piece, will accomplish much more than the old-fashioned frontal assault.”

    My prediction on Trump becoming president was not only based on Clinton’s inadequacy as a candidate, but also on Trump’s usefulness as a scapegoat for collapse. Keep in mind that the US economy had been struggling to maintain support since the crash of 2008. With all major fundamentals either stagnant or in decline, and with corporate debt, consumer debt and national debt skyrocketing, an enormous bubble was being created in the US economy. This bubble was being inflated by the Federal Reserve through endless stimulus policies to the point that the economy had become addicted to easy money. The system was dependent on it.

    Eventually, this bubble was going to pop regardless of how much money was printed by the Fed. The banking elites needed a cover event and a scapegoat for the inevitable collapse they had engineered. With Clinton in office, the globalists would get the blame for the crash. With Trump in office, conservatives and all of our ideals and principles get the blame for the crash.

    Trump’s entry into the White House brought hope for many conservatives, but I never put much faith in the eventual outcome once I realized the same elites that had infested previous administrations were now packed into Trump’s cabinet. The fact of the matter is, Trump is surrounded by them.

    Dozens of members of the Council on Foreign Relations (a globalist think tank) reside in Trump’s cabinet, along with elites like Pompeo, Mnuchin, Ross, Kudlow, Lighthizer, Fauci, etc. Mike Pompeo is a hardcore neo-con with longtime support for numerous unconstitutional policies including mass surveillance of Americans. Steve Mnuchin is former Goldman Sachs. Wilber Ross is an agent for the Rothschild banking syndicate. Larry Kudlow is former New York Federal Reserve. Robert Lighthizer is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. And, Fauci is the guy that gave MILLIONS of dollars to the Level 4 lab in Wuhan, China to research none other than coronavirus transmission from bats to other mammals; the same lab that is probably responsible for the initial pandemic outbreak.

    One could debate whether or not Trump is aware that he is being swarmed by globalist parasites, but it is a FACT that these people still have considerable influence over White House policy either way.

    This brings us to 2020. We are now in the middle of a viral pandemic; government officials and establishment elites are calling for extensive economic lockdowns in order to “flatten the curve” and slow the infection rate. These lockdowns are accelerating the decline of the already weakened US economy and setting the country up for collapse in the near term. Civil unrest is constantly on the verge of breaking out on both sides of the political divide.

    The social justice cultists want chaos in the name of bringing down the system and replacing it with some kind of Marxist Utopia. Conservatives are ready to protest and perhaps even go to war in order to stop the lockdowns and prevent medical tyranny (and I agree with them). This is the background for election 2020, and it’s an epic mess.

    For the past few month my suspicion is that there might not be an election at all. But let’s look at the factors that are in place:

    1) Joe Biden, the Dem candidate, appears to have stage four dementia. Either that, or he is a very good actor. This is another situation where I am questioning WHY? Why would the establishment run Biden (like they ran Clinton), perhaps the worst possible choice if they hope to rally people against Trump and conservatives?

    Maybe Trump is meant to stay in office for another four years, because Biden appears to have no capacity to hold the attention of an audience (again, unless his Alzheimer’s is an act).  That said, if the economic decline is severe enough into November, the election numbers could still be very close because of the backlash against Trump.  Close elections are the easiest for the establishment to manipulate one way or the other.

    2) Leftists hate Trump so thoroughly that they would vote for anyone at this point just to get rid of him; but will this fervor be enough to sway moderate Dems to participate if Biden continues his displays of mental frailty?

    3) The pandemic lockdowns and viral spread are likely to hit hard by November. Meaning, there is a chance that people will find it difficult to vote at all, unless the votes are handled by mail-in or by electronic means.

    4) Electronic or mail-in voting will not be trusted by the public on either side. Whoever wins will be accused of cheating.

    5) Civil unrest and violence is almost guaranteed in the lead up to the elections, which could frighten people away from voting booths if they are even in operation.

    These factors and more lead me to predict that Election 2020 will be a contested election which ends with Trump staying in office but accused of usurping the democratic process. This outcome is the worst possible outcome and also the most advantageous for the globalist establishment.

    The elites are even hinting publicly that this is about to happen. For those of you that have been reading my work for many years, the name “Max Boot” might sound familiar. In my article ‘How Globalists Will Attempt To Control Populations Post Collapse’, published in 2016, I outlined writings by Council on Foreign Relations member Max Boot on the Malaysian Model, a method he describes as the perfect strategy for taking control of a population and destroying an insurgency.

    The model calls for the institution of city-sized concentration camps which are used to isolate a rebellion away from the general population. The population in these cities is then subjected to extreme tracking and control measures, while the military is sent out to rural areas to eliminate potential insurgent threats.

    Well, Boot is back again, this time writing about how he thinks Donald Trump will try to “hijack” the presidency in 2020.

    In an article for the Washington post titled ‘What If Trump Loses But Insists He Won’, Boot outlines a scenario that was “war gamed” by a group called the Transition Integrity Project. The group played out a scenario in which there is a razor thin victory for Joe Biden, followed by actions by Trump to keep control of the presidency through lies and legal wrangling. The group also predicted civil unrest leading to potential “civil war” as the fight over the White House expands.

    This article is, I believe, an attempt at predictive programming by the establishment. They are TELLING US exactly what is about to happen. A contested election, civil war, martial law, economic collapse and the US will be destroyed from within.  If conservatives actively support unconstitutional levels of federal power or martial law, then the scenario becomes even worse.  By forsaking our foundational principles in order to “defeat the left”, we would be handing victory to the globalists.  We would be destroying our own movement’s reason for existing while the elites barely have to lift a finger.

    The CFR and its long time goal of erasing US sovereignty would then be nearly complete. All that would be left is to ensure they they are the people that get to rebuild America from the ashes of all out domestic conflict and collapse. This cannot be allowed to happen.

    I continue to predict that the plan is to destroy the US as we know it and blame conservatives in the process. With so many elites inhabiting Trump’s cabinet, this outcome would be easy for them to engineer. That said, the end game is not in the hands of the elites. It’s in the hands of conservatives.

    The temptation for conservatives will be to fully embrace government power in order to stop the leftists, but if we refuse to support martial law measures, if we demand or assert alternative solutions (such as community based security), if we stand by our principles of limited government and if we fight back against the globalists specifically instead of only focusing on the political left, then there is a chance we can stop them from taking control. That said, if we bow to government power and hand over our freedom just to defeat the leftists, then we will lose the greater battle against globalism in the long run.

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    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  • Strip Clubs Being Left Bare By Paycheck Protection Program
    Strip Clubs Being Left Bare By Paycheck Protection Program

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 23:40

    Among everybody’s favorite “small businesses” that shut down due to the pandemic earlier this year were our fine country’s strip clubs. And like every other business in the “hospitality” industry, these clubs hoped the government’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) would help them stay afloat during the shutdown. 

    But a little known provision in the Trump administration’s program that bans companies that “present live performances of a prurient sexual nature” from participating has stopped some clubs in their tracks. Several have sued and Federal judges have rebuked the SBA for excluding them, according to Reuters

    It’s the latest in a growing list of criticisms of the program, which has been rife with waste, fraud and abuse since its inception. Meanwhile, some legitimate businesses in the hospitality industry, like gentleman’s clubs, can’t get access to funds. It’s still unclear if the SBA will even work with the clubs that have won court orders.

    Brad Shafer, an attorney who convinced a federal judge in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan to issue a ruling in May ordering the SBA to work with more than 50 strip clubs, said: “The ball is in the SBA’s court right now. We still don’t know the end of this story.”

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    Reuters was able to find 36 organizations that represented “dozens” of strip clubs across the country that were approved for between $11.15 million and $27.95 million from the program. Some businesses had to wait until after the court’s decision to get their funding. 

    John Meehan, who owns Cheerleaders strip clubs in New Jersey and Philadelphia, was denied by PNC for loans. He said: “I wasn’t complaining, but I was scratching my head.”

    A spokeswoman for PNC said she didn’t know why the loans were denied: “Under those guidelines, applicants were responsible for certifying that they met applicable SBA eligibility requirements, and lenders were not required to independently verify such eligibility.”

    RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc., which operates more than 35 strip clubs, had better luck and was approved for between $4.45 million and $11.7 million in funding. Representatives for the company declined to comment. 

    One dancer, Jordan Lawrence, concluded: “These people need to come out here and interact with people like me because they are interfering with our livelihood. We have bills to pay too.”

  • "How We Got Here": The Transformation Of America
    “How We Got Here”: The Transformation Of America

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 23:20

    Authored by Frank Miele via RealClearPolitics.com,

    Earlier this month, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said on Twitter that he would “transform” America if he were elected. “We’re going to beat Donald Trump. And when we do, we won’t just rebuild this nation — we’ll transform it.”

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    That’s good news if you don’t like America. According to the dictionary, to “transform” is to “make a thorough or dramatic change in the form, appearance or character” of something. It is to reshape, or as the current phrase goes on the left, “to reinvent” — as the Democrats have promised to “reinvent public safety” by defunding police forces, by encouraging looters, by eliminating cash bail that ensures criminal defendants show up for trial, and by prosecuting people who use their Second Amendment right to bear arms to protect their lives, their families and their livelihood.

    When you hear that Biden wants to “transform” America, and then you hear that he is leading President Trump by 10 or 15 percentage points in the polls, you have to fear that perhaps America is already transformed, that it is no longer the sweet land of liberty, that it is no longer the same land where our fathers died, that the dear freedom we once took for granted has been replaced by the cheap freedom of “nothing left to lose.”

    But if we as a nation no longer respect the principles enshrined in the Declaration of Independence, in the articles of the Constitution, in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans who put honor and country first, then we must ask — those of us who still have a moral compass and are looking for the direction home — “How did we get here?”

    It’s no accident that Biden’s promise to transform America echoed the words of the man he served as vice president. The week before Barack Obama was elected president, he told a crowd in Missouri, “We are five days away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America.” After his election, he endeavored to fulfill that promise, most overtly by co-opting the nation’s health care system, one-fifth of the U.S. economy, and putting it under the auspices of the federal government with the Affordable Care Act.

    But let’s not blame Obama and absolve ourselves of all responsibility. To paraphrase Shakespeare, the fault is not in our star politicians, but in ourselves. Ben Franklin said that the Founding Fathers had given the nation a republic “if you can keep it.” Well, we’ve done a rather poor job of keeping it. The descent into the madness on our streets and in our courthouses and in our legislatures today did not just start with Barack Obama, and as we now see clearly it will not just stop with Donald Trump.

    For well over 100 years, the nation has toyed with socialism like a fifth-grader experimenting with cigarettes. What harm could it do, right? But before you know it, your fifth-grader is all grown up and struggling to breathe or is starting another round of chemotherapy. Actions have consequences, and so does looking the other way.

    In my new book, “How We Got Here,” I look at some of the roots of the radical ideology that is now threatening to destroy our country. It is no accident that the subtitle is “The Left’s Assault on the Constitution,” because it is that document which restrained the socialist impulse for many years and yet is now proving dangerously susceptible to court-ordered subversion.

    In retrospect, I submit that our faith in the Constitution was perhaps ill-placed. We forgot the warning of John Adams that “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious People. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.”

    That quote is  well-known to conservatives, if not sufficiently honored, but the rest of President Adams’ letter to the Massachusetts Militia in 1798 is little remembered. That’s unfortunate, because it sounds the alarm on our current crisis quite presciently:

    “[S]hould the People of America, once become capable of that deep …  simulation towards one another and towards foreign nations, which assumes the Language of Justice and moderation while it is practicing Iniquity and Extravagance; and displays in the most captivating manner the charming Pictures of Candour frankness & sincerity while it is rioting in rapine and Insolence: this Country will be the most miserable Habitation in the World. Because We have no Government armed with Power capable of contending with human Passions unbridled by morality and Religion. Avarice, Ambition, Revenge or Galantry, would break the strongest Cords of our Constitution as a Whale goes through a Net. Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious People. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.”

    Sound familiar? It should. Black Lives Matter and its allies on the left have adopted the “language of justice” while indeed “practicing iniquity” in the form of arson and shootings and “rioting in rapine and insolence.” Though the word is out of fashion, rapine seems an apt description of the state of our city streets since the end of May. It is defined as the “violent seizure of someone’s property.” How else do you describe what happened in Minneapolis and Atlanta and Seattle and is still happening in Portland, Ore.?

    Adams warned that “this Country will be the most miserable Habitation in the World” should these conditions come to pass, and we do not have to guess if he was right. We are living it. We know full well that the instincts of “avarice, ambition and revenge” can indeed “break the strongest cords of the Constitution.” Witness what happened to the St. Louis attorney who defended his home with a weapon when he was threatened by an unlawful assembly. No one protected him, no one answered his call for police, and within a week his gun was seized and he was threatened with prosecution for a “hate crime.” So much for the Second Amendment.

    “We have no Government armed with Power capable of contending with human Passions unbridled by morality and Religion,” said Adams. “We the People” have no way to contend with a government that is unbridled by morality and religion. That, ladies and gentleman, is the point we have reached, so discovering “how we got here” may be only an academic exercise. Nonetheless, if we are going to have any chance to restore morality to government — and power to the Constitution — we must do the hard work of finding out what went wrong. After that, we shall see if there is any hope.

    Let’s start with the loss of morality. This is the north star of behavior, the bellwether of decency, the certainty of right and wrong. Morality is what C.S. Lewis in “The Abolition of Man” called the Tao — “the doctrine of objective value, the belief that certain attitudes are really true, and others really false, to the kind of thing the universe is and the kind of things we are.” In other words, it was that force which existed independent of man but embedded in him that impelled our Founders to describe certain inalienable rights as “self-evident.” The Tao was not created by religion, but rather was the reason why religions existed. It is what our Founders called Natural Law.

    So what went wrong? In a word, education. In two words, “progressive education.” For the first hundred years or so of our nation’s history, education served its usual purpose of reinforcing social norms, teaching values and passing on the heritage and traditions that bind us together. All of that began to change in the 1880s, thanks in large part to one man — John Dewey, the godfather of progressive education, who insisted on teaching children what they want to learn instead of what they should learn. Essentially, what the progressive education movement wanted to accomplish — and did accomplish by the 1960s — was to jettison traditional values and replace them with transient values (those which each generation or even each student adopted individually). This meant that society was no longer tethered to the Tao. Morality had become relative. Education had switched from being a method of reinforcing social conventions and standards to uprooting them.

    Time magazine in 1958 put it this way:

    “In a kind of country-club existentialism, Dewey and his boys genially contended that the traditional ends of education, like God, virtue and the idea of ‘culture,’ were all highly debatable and hence not worth debating. In their place: enter life adjustment. The Deweyites thus transformed conditioning techniques into ends in themselves. … Within the schools, discipline gave way to increasingly dubious group persuasion. ‘With teen-agers,’ one high school principal said proudly, ‘there is nothing more powerful than the approval or disapproval of the group. When the majority conforms, the others will go along.’ It would not easily occur to the modern educationists that such blind fostering of group pressure is a travesty of free democracy.”

    Dewey’s system of education emphasized students doing what feels good rather than learning what is good for them. Progressive education does not believe in moral, religious or cultural absolutes, but rather teaches students that they have the right to reject any system of belief, any principles, and values that they find to be “restrictive” or that make them “uncomfortable.” In essence, Dewey said to question everything and respect nothing. That model did permanent damage to the family, to the church, and to the country. Progressive education does not believe in moral, religious or cultural absolutes and makes every individual the master of his own moral universe. It also means that nothing can be taken for granted, nothing is certain, and the concept of right and wrong is malleable.

    Which brings us — in this truncated history — to the 1960s. The social revolution of that decade was the illegitimate child of progressive education and the affluent society. Thanks to the sacrifices of the Greatest Generation, my own generation was able to smoke weed, skip class, and raise Cain — all while on the family allowance. Somehow along the way, these products of indulgence decided that America didn’t live up to their high standards of social justice. They rejected the principles of rugged individualism and free enterprise and substituted their socialist fantasies. The Vietnam War gave them the perfect foil to foment civil unrest and to enlist most of their generation into a war on “the establishment,” which meant a war on law and order, a war on religion, a war on the nuclear family, and a war on authority in general. These were the godchildren of John Dewey: Question everything, respect nothing.

    One mastermind of the ’60s revolution was Bill Ayers, who was first a progressive educator, then a bomb-throwing revolutionary in the Weather Underground, and then a fugitive from justice. It was while he was hiding from the FBI for the entire decade of the 1970s that Ayers realized that violent revolution could not topple the government unless it was first rotted from within. In “Prairie Fire” and other radical writings, Ayers described how young people, minorities and women could be turned against the system, and most importantly how revolutionaries who wore suits and ties could infiltrate boardrooms, political parties, the military, the courts and other institutions of society in order to bring about change from within.

    When you see how many millions of dollars that corporate America has voluntarily given to the communist front organization known as Black Lives Matter, you can gauge just how successful Ayers was in his strategy. When you see that the Democratic Party is led by communists and socialists like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, you can thank Bill Ayers. When you see military generals publicly condemning the commander-in-chief for his efforts to ensure public safety, you know that Bill Ayers has come close to victory. When you watch our courts chip away at our freedoms, you can bet that Bill Ayers thinks he has won. And maybe he has.

    A recurring theme in “How We Got Here” is that the Constitution no longer means what it says it means, but rather what any five Supreme Court justices say it means. These justices have a remarkable knack for discovering new powers for the government hidden in nooks and crannies of the document that somehow were missed previously. Under such a scenario, the Constitution becomes a tool for social engineering rather than a protection against government excess, as was originally intended.

    It too is all part of the plan. After all, judges are lawyers, and lawyers are graduated from law schools, and the top law-school students come from the top Ivy League and radical-left colleges, and most radical college students come from public schools, and public schools are to progressivism what politics is to the swamp. You can thank John Dewey, and you can thank Bill Ayers, who after he returned to public view, became an influential educator of educators at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

    In “Prairie Fire,” Ayers outlined how the revolution would transform America. Yes, violence would play a role. Yes, bankrupting the system by increasing dependence on government would play a role. Yes, spurring foreign wars to spread America’s military too thin would play a role. Yes, encouraging division among the races would be part of it, as would weakening the influence of religion on the masses, but if you wanted to win the revolution, Ayers made it perfectly clear how to begin: “The real question is: Who will control the schools?”

    How did we get here? The answer by now should be obvious.

    *  *  *

    Frank Miele’s new book “How We Got Here: The Left’s Assault on the Constitution” is available from his Amazon author page. Visit him at HeartlandDiaryUSA.com to read his daily commentary .

  • Newsroom Job Cuts Up 170% Through June, Worst On Record 
    Newsroom Job Cuts Up 170% Through June, Worst On Record 

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 23:00

    Newsroom employment continues to slump. From 2018 through June, more than 28,000 employees at US newspapers have been laid off. 

    Since the start of 2018, newsrooms have had a challenging time, resulting in industry-wide consolidation. The push to digital has been a significant contributor to this trend. As of recent, the coronavirus pandemic has triggered a nasty recession, collapsing ad revenue for media firms.

    Newsroom job cuts this year is shaping up to be the worst on record, could even surpass the dark of 2008/09, wrote outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

    The new report, titled “Newsrooms Suffer Worst Layoffs Through June on Record,” reveals newsroom job cuts totaled 11,027 through June, up 169.8% from the 4,087 cuts announced in 1H19. 

    “Newsrooms have had a rough few years, as revenues declined and consolidation in the industry decimated news teams. Coupled with a hostile environment for many journalists, news has become an increasingly difficult career path,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

    A Challenger survey during the pandemic of newsrooms shows 23.3% of media firms furloughed workers. About a third of respondents said they slashed pay, and over half were able to avoid layoffs. 

    A couple of years of consolidation, coupled with the virus-induced recession, newsrooms are set to record the largest ever round of job cuts on record. 

    Not too long ago, Quartz fired half of its journalist, blamed job cuts on the virus that dramatically crushed its finances. 

    Global advertisement spending is set to collapse this year, further pressuring newsrooms that will create a perfect storm of layoffs. 

  • Partisanship Has Untethered Americans' Minds From Objective Reality
    Partisanship Has Untethered Americans’ Minds From Objective Reality

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 22:40

    Authored by ‘Zman‘ via The Burning Platform blog,

    Simulacra and Simulation

    Logic dictates that it is impossible for someone to lie to themselves. A lie is the deliberate, and therefore conscious, telling of a falsehood. The person lying is deliberately trying to deceive someone. The only way lying can be successful is if the person hearing the lie believes it. Lying to yourself is an obvious paradox. This is true of self-delusion or self-deception. The real paradox here is that we have these expressions because the phenomenon seems to exist.

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    For example, the odds of knowing someone who has died from the corona virus is very low, unless you work in a nursing home. For the typical person, you are more likely to know someone who was murdered. In fact, in most of the country, you are four times more likely to know a murder victim than a corona victim. Yet, many people on the Left will tell you they know many people who have died from corona. They really believe this is true and display the appropriate emotions to prove it.

    Adding to the intrigue is the fact that these people have had the math explained to them many times by the more skeptical. The same is true about the stories of overwhelmed hospitals everyone hears about, but no one has seen. The nurses and doctors posting TikTok videos of themselves dancing in empty hospitals had no effect on the believers in these claims. Even now, they are sure the “first responders” are nearing exhaustion as they heroically fight the virus.

    It is not a coincidence that these people are sure Donald Trump is Adolph Hitler slowly imposing the Third Reich. People who otherwise seem calm and rational, despite their politics, become hysterical when talking about Trump. “He’s a dangerous dictator who is destroying the country” they bellow. It’s not just hyperbole. They really seem to believe that Trump is not only a man who wants to be a dictator, but that he is actually assuming dictatorial power. The lie is very real to them.

    It’s not so much that they believe complete nonsense regarding Trump. It’s that their own reaction to the nonsense underscores the irrationality of it. After all, if Trump is anything like they believe, voting him out of office is unlikely. After all, he would use his magic dictator power to rig the vote or just ignore the result. Rather than reevaluate their beliefs, they are now creating another fantasy around with Trump secretly plotting to ignore the results of the election.

    For these people, perception is reality to the point where reality is warped in order to make it comply with their pseudo-reality. Like fanaticism, partisanship untethers the mind from objective reality. Unlike fanaticism, which is temporary and disconnected from rational thinking, partisanship enslaves the rational mind, forcing it to create an alternative reality. This partisan reality is so powerful it blocks out anything that contradicts or disconfirms the alternative reality.

    The most extreme version of this are the radicals that go on a murderous rampage in the belief they are defending their cause against dangerous enemies. They quickly move from disagreement to murder, because they quickly create a reality in which anyone showing the least bit of doubt is secretly plotting to kill them. Those who commit political murder do so in the firm conviction they are acting in self-defense. In fact, they have to kill their opponents for the good of society.

    The thing about political murder is it is not irrational. If you truly think the only way your people can survive is to abide by a certain set of rules, then anyone trying to undermine those rules is a direct threat to your survival. Bargaining with such a person or offering them leniency would be no different than bargaining with a killer. The fact that political opposition is not the same as violent assault is the deception. The partisan has become convinced of something that is at odds with reality.

    Compounding this strange conflict of realities is the fact the people in each are highly similar to one another, but seemingly incapable of seeing the reality of the other as the other perceives it. The people sure the hospitals are war zones, for example, look at images of empty hospitals or the statistics on hospital layoffs and it has no impact on their mental processes. It’s as if that information is invisible to them. In fact, it just confirms to them that the other people are dangerously insane.

    In fairness, something similar happens when dealing with the MAGA people. Their blind loyalty to Trump and the old America is more endearing, but just as disconnected from reality as the “Trump is Hitler” stuff. In this regard, those looking hard at the world find themselves surround by people from at least two simulations that are derivative of reality, but at odds with it in fundamental ways. It’s as if there is a leak in these simulations and their simulacrum are leaking into the real world.

    The question we face in this age is whether it is possible to maintain a civil society with an abundance of people embracing an alternative reality. Fanatics, eccentrics, lunatics and so on have been a part of human society since the beginning. The issue today is one of scale. Those leaky simulations have burst open and our reality is now flooded with berserk imitations of normal people, acting on a sense of reality that is at odds with objective reality. We’re being overrun by simulacrum.

  • First Pandemic, Now Rainstorms, Headaches For Restaurants Soar 
    First Pandemic, Now Rainstorms, Headaches For Restaurants Soar 

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 22:20

    Until a proven vaccine, one that has to be mass-produced and handed out to the population, but then again, recent polling data show only half of Americans are willing to take the vaccine once commercially available, the restaurant industry will remain absolutely crushed in a depression.

    The exact figure on restaurant failures is dependent on the source, OpenTable recently said 25% of all US restaurants are set to go out of businesses due to shifts in consumer habits linked to the public health crisis, resulting in collapsing foot traffic with weakest eateries closing first. Imagine, if foot traffic stays low through late summer into fall, it would eventually lead to restaurants with high cash buffers depleting funds and trigger another round of closures through winter. 

    So far, restaurants with carryout and outdoor seating have been the winners through the midpoint of summer. Early in the pandemic, consumers stayed home and ordered takeout, via popular delivery apps, such as DoorDash, Grubhub, and Uber Eats.

    Consumers who gather up the courage to hop in their automobiles and drive to their favorite eatery are now demanding outdoor seating more than ever. This has posed a significant challenge for restaurant, first not every eatery has the space to expand or even have outdoor dining; and second, operators serving food must contend with rainstorms. 

    Dale Talde, owner of Goosefeather restaurant in Tarrytown, New York, told Bloomberg his top concern today is the weather, with about 90% of seating now located outside, his staff must be conscious of storms. 

    “We have to move thousands of pounds a day based on these crazy weather patterns,” Talde said, referring to staff shifting tables inside and out, depending on the weather. He said a Phase 3 region had limited his indoor dining operations, which is the reason why he has a majority of tables outside.

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    Goosefeathers in Tarrytown, New York. H/T Bloomberg

    Talde’s restaurant isn’t the only one in New York battling evolving weather trends. Public health orders countrywide have limited indoor capacity at restaurants that has pushed operators outside. Besides the pandemic, the weather has become a significant factor for operators in 2020. 

    Talde said the pandemic has led to a decline in average checks, falling from $100 in pre-corona times to $70, or about a 30% reduction in several months. He said total sales on a typical Saturday would fetch upwards of $20,000, and now the number is halved. 

    At Le Crocodile in Brooklyn’s Wythe Hotel, owner Jon Neidich said most of his sales are from his newly created outdoor dining area. He said profitability is not on his mind, instead just trying to “break-even” and survive the virus pandemic.

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    Le Crocodile in Brooklyn’s Wythe Hotel. H/T Bloomberg 

    Neidich was another operator who said the weather had become a major challenge since many tables are now outside. “With rain, you can go from 80 seats to 40 seats. If you have a storm with wind, business is gone.”

    At Philadelphia’s Sunset Social restaurant, a massive rooftop space outfitted with restaurant seats is prone to rainy afternoons. 

    “We have to send our entire team home,” owner Branden McRill said. “If it seems like a passing shower, we’ll keep a few team members on and try to ride it out, but it’s usually a wash.” 

    Bloomberg notes insurers could get into the weather game and start offering policies to restaurants for weather-related losses. 

    “Weather is definitely the X-factor for us,” Sean Fowler, the owner of Mandolin, in Raleigh, North Carolina. He said heat lamps for the fall would be considered shortly if indoor dining capacity continues to be limited. 

    Bob Giaimo, CEO of the Silver Diner chain, said his company quadrupled outdoor dining at 18 retro diners across the mid-Atlantic. He said outdoor dining contributes to about half of the restaurant’s dine-in business, and the weather has become a challenging problem. 

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    Outdoor dinning at a Silver Diner location in Rockville, Maryland. H/T Bloomberg 

    “Heat has been challenging, but now we’re getting fans and misters,” Giaimo said. “We recognize these outdoor cafes are going to be a fixture.” 

    With many states pausing or reversing reopenings, current figures from Goldman Sachs has about 80% of the US population are in areas where the recovery has reversed. On top of that, seasonal shifts from summer into fall/winter will force restaurants who have outdoor seating to purchase tents and heating devices. 

    What a mess it must be for restaurant operators, who’ve been crushed by the pandemic, now easily susceptible to Mother Nature’s wrath. 

  • Oklahoma Teens Charged With Terrorism For Breaking Windows During Protests
    Oklahoma Teens Charged With Terrorism For Breaking Windows During Protests

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 22:00

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    We have previously discussed my reservations about the use of federal charges of arson and other crimes to prosecute individuals accused of rioting offenses in the recent protests. The concern was the federalization of local offenses.  Now, however, I have concerns about state charges out of Oklahoma. 

    Teenagers are facing terrorism charges after allegedly helping to break in the windows of an Oklahoma City bail bonds business in late May. I have long raised concerns about the broadening of terrorism laws and this is an example of why I still hold such concerns. As the Justice Department explores possible terrorism charges, the Oklahoma County District Attorney David Prater appears to be adopting an exceptionally broad interpretation of that crime. Among those charged was Malachai Davis, 18, who was shown breaking the window of the CJ Bail Bond building using what appeared to be brass knuckles. 

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    That charge has a tragic irony because, according to his attorney, Davis’ father died in the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center in 2001.

    Haley Lin Crawford and Sydney Lunch, who both just turned 18, were charged with acting with a large crowd to unlawfully break the windows of CJ’s Bail Bonds in Oklahoma City on May 30, according to the Oklahoman. They were identified using Facebook Live video streamed by other demonstrators as well as the Crimestoppers bulletin below.

    At least three others had been charged with terrorism after the May 30 incident.

    Prater declared last month that those who incite violence in the streets are “criminals” and “[w]hen you employ these tactics for a political purpose, you are a terrorist.”  He denounced Black Lives Matter protestors of later trying to intimidate him and law enforcement to drop the charges.  Protesters held a sit in at his office.

    I tend to agree with the Black Lives Matter position, contained in a petition on Change.org, that it is overreach “[t]o conflate acts of vandalism against property with acts of terrorist violence against human beings.” The Oklahoma Democratic Party has also spoken out against the charges.

    By charging such property damage as terrorism, the prosecutor radically increased the potential sentence as well as the required bond.

    What is curious is that others were charged with rioting (and at least one with assault on an officer) but Prater charged these individuals with terrorism. I do not see the dividing line between the cases.

    Two other cases come closer to the cases we discussed earlier as possible federal terrorism cases linked to the burning of police vehicles.

    Isael Antonio Ortiz, 21, is accused of burning an Oklahoma County sheriff’s van and attempting to burn a bail bonds business with others. Eric Christopher Ruffin, 26, was accused of encouraging the “wanton destruction” on Facebook Live. He is quoted from the Facebook video as saying every single one of those that kill Black people need to die and “that’s what happens when you got numbers outside.”

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    This is Ruffin’s second charge. He was accused on May 30th of terrorism in relation to the burning of the van.  He was then charged in the bail bonds fire.  He went on Facebook Live before turning himself in to declare

    “I’m innocent. You dig what I’m saying? We’ve got mounds and mounds of evidence. I didn’t burn nothing. I didn’t set nothing on fire. I didn’t tell nobody to do none of that s—. You dig what I’m saying? And … they’re doing this because, I feel as if … they want a fall person right now. … And it’s wrong. It’s wrong what they’re trying to do to me.”

    He was also featured in this interview:

    Ruffin’s threat (if tied to criminal acts) comes closest to conventional terrorism charge.  I still have some reservations, particularly with the Ortiz case, in treating wanton destruction as terrorism.  We have seen thousands of such cases during protests and they have not been treated as terroristic acts.  I believe that such charges would be reserved for the narrow category of criminals who use violent to terrorize communities or countries. Ruffin admittedly raises a viable issue, but we need to know more about the context and intent behind that statement.  I am still concerned about the use of the charge even with Ruffin even with his reckless and threatening words.

    There are very serious charges that can be brought against all of these defendants, including the rioting charges levied against at least six other individuals.  I do not see why it is necessary to treat this as terrorism.  Terrorism is an offense that is quickly loosening its meaning and cohesion as a criminal charge as prosecutors reframe vandalism, property damage, and rioting as terrorism.  It seems as misplaced as calling the 9/11 attacks as a property damage offense.  The damage in Oklahoma was done in the rage of a protests following the death of George Floyd. That is no defense but the intent was not to terrorize. If it could be construed as terroristic, then any wanton property damage would become terrorism.

    As I have said before, I tend to view these cases through the eyes of criminal defense attorney. However, I cannot see the logic and necessity of framing these crimes as terroristic acts.

  • Sierra Club Disowns John Muir Over Friendship With Eugenicists, 'Perpetuating White Supremacy'
    Sierra Club Disowns John Muir Over Friendship With Eugenicists, ‘Perpetuating White Supremacy’

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 21:40

    He may have devoted most of his life to the preservation of America’s wilderness and had a direct hand in the establishment of Yosemite National Park, but legendary environmentalist John Muir was friends with eugenicists – and so, he must be canceled.

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    The Sierra Club – which Muir founded and served as its first president – has condemned the iconic naturalist for his associations, along with racist comments in what Executive Director Michael Brune described as part of the organization’s “substantial role in perpetuating white supremacy.”

    In a Wednesday post on their website, Brune pointed to Muir’s close friendship with paleontologist Henry Fairfield Osborn and other eugenicists – whose movement sought to improve the genetic quality of the human race through selective breeding and sterilization of those deemed ‘unfit to reproduce.’ The list of ‘undesirables’  included those with mental or physical disabilities, low IQs, criminals, deviants, and various minority groups.

    The Sierra Club’s distancing from Muir comes just one day after Planned Parenthood of Greater New York announced that they would remove the name of Margaret Sanger, the organization’s founder, from their Manhattan clinic in order to disavow her ties to the eugenics movement. However, it may come as a surprise that as recently as 2009 eugenics was OK – that’s when Hillary Clinton said she was “really in awe” of Sanger, whose work “in the United States and certainly across our globe is not done.”

    Muir was further denigrated in Wednesday’s Washington Post,  which called him racist for having described native Americans ‘dirty’ – which Johnmuir.org points out was taken out of context.

    The critics ignore that Muir decried dirt and squalor anywhere he found it, disapproving of domestic animals or people alike who were unkempt and dirty compared to the “clean” forest animals he observed in his wanderings.  Reading elsewhere in his journals, we find that Muir’s aversion to dirt on the human body just as often included people of European descent as anyone else. –John Muir Global Network

    He also referred to African Americans as lazy “Sambos,” according to the Post, writing in A Thousand-Mile Walk to the Gulf “One energetic white man, working with a will, would easily pick as much cotton as half a dozen Sambos and Sallies.”

    That said, later in life Muir lived among the Tlingit natives in Alaska, of which he wrote “Uncle Sam has no better subjects, white, black, or brown, or any more deserving his considerate care.”

    The Sierra Club and the Post also ignore Muir’s ‘evolved attitude’ towards Native Americans of the course of his life – as apparently only southern Democrats such as Robert Byrd – a former Grand Cyclops of the KKK who filibustered the original GOP civil rights act, are allowed to ‘evolve’, while Muir is apparently beyond redemption.

    In their Wednesday letter, the Sierra Club said that because of Muir’s legendary status, his “words and actions carry an especially heavy weight” which “continue to hurt and alienate Indigenous people and people of color who come into contact with the Sierra Club.”

    “Such willful ignorance is what allows some people to shut their eyes to the reality that the wild places we love are also the ancestral homelands of Native peoples, forced off their lands in the decades or centuries before they became national parks,” the group added.

    Reparations

    In order to atone for the racial sins of their founder, the Sierra Club announced that the 128-year-old organization – the nation’s oldest environmental group which boasts over 800 employees and four million members – that it would overhaul its executive leadership so “that leaders of color at the Sierra Club make up of the majority of the team making top-level organizational decisions.”

    The club will also invest $5 million “in our staff of color and our environmental and racial justice work.”

    Will California now rename the 211-mile John Muir trail? Or will UC San Diego rename Muir College to something less offensive?

  • Johnstone: The Only Obstacle To A Healthy World Is Government Secrecy And Propaganda
    Johnstone: The Only Obstacle To A Healthy World Is Government Secrecy And Propaganda

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 21:20

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    If people in power were no longer able to hide secrets and spin lies about what’s going on in the world, all of our major problems would come to an end. Because secretive and manipulative power structures are the source of all of our major problems.

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    If the public could see what’s actually happening in their world, they would immediately begin using the power of their numbers to overhaul our current system. This is why our current system pours so much energy into preventing the public from seeing what’s actually happening in their world.

    If it weren’t for the constant campaign of obfuscation and manipulation of public perception via veils of government secrecy and propaganda, humanity would naturally find its way out of the power-driven tribulations it now faces, as surely as you’ll avoid obstacles and hazards in your path when you are walking with your eyes open. The only problem in this case is that our eyes have not been permitted to open.

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    It isn’t actually necessary to hold a bunch of hard, rigid ideas about exactly what kind of society we should have, what kind of political system we should have, what kind of economic system we should have. There’s nothing wrong with promoting ideas and having preferences of course, but really if you just gave humanity the ability to navigate through its own troubles by removing the blindfolds of propaganda and power opacity, it would organically create a healthy society, and realistically such a society probably won’t look a whole lot like our mental models.

    You do have the option, then, of simply promoting the end of government/political/corporate/financial opacity and the end of establishment perception management. Wanting humanity to see with clear eyes so that it can make its own informed decisions about where to take itself is a complete political position, in and of itself. You don’t have to hold any other political preferences of any kind if you don’t want to.

    The desire for an end to the obfuscations and manipulations of the powerful so that humanity can find its own way is the most anti-authoritarian position you can possibly take, because it also protects the world from your own authoritarian impulses.

    I personally am very leftwardly inclined and believe that if humanity had its perception management blindfolds removed it would naturally create a world where we’re all truly equal and everyone is taken care of by the collective each according to their need, but what the hell do I know? Maybe if the blindfold is removed I’d be proven wrong. I respect human sovereignty enough to want to find out, free from my own political preferences. I should not be the one making such societal decisions, society as a whole should. I just want human perception to be freed up enough to make that call.

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    If you choose to make the end of perception management your foremost priority, that means you push for government transparency at every opportunity and support any movement to take away secret hiding places from the powerful.

    It means opposing the way the powerful bolt shut all the doors on public scrutiny of their behavior, smear anyone who speculates about what they might be up to as a crazy conspiracy theorist, and imprisons anyone who leaks information about what they’re really doing to the people.

    It means you support whistleblowers like Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowden who help shine light on the things power tries to keep hidden in the dark.

    It means you support WikiLeaks and Julian Assange and any journalist who helps expose the secrets of the powerful.

    It means you fight the empire’s propaganda machine at every opportunity to break public trust in its manipulations.

    It means you support breaking up the monolithic mass media and giving everyone the equal ability to influence the dominant narratives.

    It means opposing internet censorship, since Silicon Valley plutocrats propping up the establishment their kingdoms are built upon by censoring anti-establishment voices is another way of keeping people from being shown the truth about their world.

    I personally would add that it means supporting the decriminalization of psychedelics, because seeing within ourselves is just as important as seeing what’s happening in our world and entheogens can facilitate this seeing, but maybe that’s just me.

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    Again, there’s no harm in engaging in politics and pushing for the changes you’d like to see in your world, and there can be many benefits to doing so. But as long as people are successfully prevented from seeing and understanding what’s really happening in their world by the obfuscation of information and by the manipulation of people’s perception of that information, the status quo will always remain in place.

    So in my opinion this is the most sensible point upon which to converge our energy. I personally have no interest in controlling what humanity does, and desire only that people come to see freely enough to make their own decisions.

    It’s absolutely insane that information which affects us all is kept hidden away from our clear vision by secrecy and propaganda. It’s even crazier that they shame us when we wonder what’s really going on and throw us in prison when we try to find out. We must liberate ourselves from this madness so we can create a healthy world together.

    *  *  *

    Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for my website, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics onTwitter, checking out my podcast on either YoutubesoundcloudApple podcasts or Spotify, following me on Steemit, throwing some money into my tip jar on Patreon or Paypal, purchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my books Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone and Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge.

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  • Vandals Deface Oakland Mayor's House With Messages To Defund Police And "Cancel Rent"
    Vandals Deface Oakland Mayor’s House With Messages To Defund Police And “Cancel Rent”

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 21:00

    The Mayor of Oakland’s house was vandalized overnight on Monday night this week. The culprit(s) wrote messages across her garage door and other parts of her home at around 2.A.M. Tuesday morning, according to Fox.

    A spokesperson for the Mayor’s office also said that “projectiles” were shot at her house and that fireworks were set off.

    Some of the messages written on her house included: “Blood on your hands,” “Wake up Libby,” “Defund OPD,” and “Cancel Rent”. 

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    The Mayor’s spokesperson, Justin Berton, said: “This attack, designed to intimidate the Mayor and strike fear into her family, will not stop her from advocating for the policies she believes are in the best long-term interests of her beloved hometown. Like all Oaklanders, she supports passionate protest but does not support tactics meant to harm and terrorize others.”

    The police were seen outside of the mayor’s house on Tuesday morning. An anonymous group has claimed responsibility for the vandalism, posting online the reasons why they targeted the mayor and stating: “This is just the beginning”.

    Perhaps the Mayor will start to get the message that the solution to these lingering issues is taking back your city by using force.

    Recall, it wasn’t until protesters visited the home of Seattle’s Mayor that the city’s “autonomous zone” was finally disbanded. Putting aside the obvious hypocrisy, perhaps this will come as a much needed wake-up call for clueless liberal politicians who continue to drag their feet in enforcing the law because they don’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings.

    But we won’t hold out hope.

    You can watch Fox’s report on the incident here:

  • Martenson: Mainstream Media Lied And People Died
    Martenson: Mainstream Media Lied And People Died

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 20:40

    Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

    Chris Martenson is a futurist, economic researcher and holds a PhD in toxicology from Duke University.  He is telling people to “brace for impact” because we are well beyond the point of no return economically and financially speaking.

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    Martenson explains, “We are not doing anything except steering towards a cliff edge at this point in time...”

    ” We had the 2008 financial crisis, and we should have learned a couple of lessons.  We didn’t learn any lessons, and I think we have just enshrined these lessons into something that is really going to bite us.  The Federal Reserve, Plunge Protection Team and all the organs of state are all geared towards one thing and one thing only, and that is giving more money to rich people. 

    I believe we are in the Fourth Turning . . . and one of the hallmarks of this is loss of faith in institutions.  The Federal Reserve is still held up as a benevolent organization.  They care about inflation and unemployment, and none of that is true.  What they care about is shoveling and funneling big profits to big banks.  So, the Federal Reserve deserves to lose every bit of respect anybody has ever held for it.”

    Martenson goes on to say, “I think this is ruining our society...”

    ” This is the kind of thing that I believe led Plutarch way back a couple of thousand years ago to say, ‘The oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics is a gap between the rich and the poor.’  The Federal Reserve is busy enshrining and ensuring that we have the largest and steepest wealth pyramid we have ever seen. . . . The Federal Reserve is creating the conditions that lead to a future that I don’t want to go toward.  I don’t want to live in a place where mobs rule, people are unhappy and riots are happening. . . .

    The Federal Reserve is the entity that is most responsible for most of the pain we see going on around us.  I wrote an article called ‘Brace for Impact’ recently because this is a trend I am seeing, and it is accelerating and not slowing down.  There are no signs that team elite is going to say we have taken enough . . . let’s start reversing some of that.  No, they are going to keep doing what they do, and they won’t stop until something breaks.”

    Nowhere are the problems more in focus than in the large Democrat controlled cities.  Martenson says:

    …this is why you are seeing a “back to land movement . . . a flight from the cities . . . and this trend is just starting.”

    Martenson also weighs in on the Covid 19 crisis and says, “The mainstream media (MSM) press has blood on their hands for failing to take a neutral position on this stuff,” such as the very positive results for treatments like Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ).  Instead, the MSM ignored HCQ or said it was dangerous to use, which was a total lie.   Martenson contends the MSM misinformed people, and ‘people died.’”

    Martenson also says, “People should tune your body up so your body can fight off Covid 19. . . . You want your body to be as healthy as it can be from an immunological standpoint.”

    Martenson says the good news is Covid 19 is definitely going to “trend down by the end of the year.”

    Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Dr. Chris Martenson, co-founder of PeakProsperity.com. 

    Click Here to Donate to USAWatchdog.com

  • John Cleese: Society Is Now Controlled By The Most Touchy, Emotionally Unstable, & Fragile People
    John Cleese: Society Is Now Controlled By The Most Touchy, Emotionally Unstable, & Fragile People

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 20:20

    Former Monty Python and Fawlty Towers star John Cleese has had enough of political correctness and the cancel culture, and as for the state of the “dysfunctional world we live in,” warning that “it’s completely hopeless…”

    As for the sense of hopelessness he feels, Cleese blames the “power seekers.”

    “I believe there’s something wrong with these people. The reason they want to be powerful is that they want to control people, so that they don’t get lathered into situations that they can’t control emotionally. The one thing they fear is losing power, so they’ll do almost anything to hold on to it.

    If they don’t know what they’re doing or what they’re talking about, there’s no way (the world) will ever get well.

    The 80 year old comedian is as politically savvy as he is humorous as he brings his one-man-show “Why There Is No Hope” to live-stream after blasting the BBC last month as “cowardly and gutless” for temporarily taking down an episode of Fawlty Towers that made fun of Germans and World War II and also featured a character using a racial slur.

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    Cancel culture “misunderstands the main purposes of life which is to have fun”, Cleese told Reuters, referring to the trend in which people are ostracised because of behaviour or remarks seen as objectionable.

    “Everything humorous is critical. If you have someone who is perfectly kind and intelligent and flexible and who always behaves appropriately, they’re not funny. Funniness is about people who don’t do that, like Trump.”

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    Summing the current state of the world up perfectly, Cleese says, the problem with political correctness, he added, is that comedians “have to set the bar according to what we are told by the most touchy, most emotionally unstable and fragile and least stoic people in the country”.

  • Cryptos Join The Precious Metals Party: Ethereum Surges To 5-Month Highs
    Cryptos Join The Precious Metals Party: Ethereum Surges To 5-Month Highs

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 20:15

    Mimicking their non-fiat currency peers in precious metals land, cryptos are surging higher tonight as Asian markets open.

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin jumped back above $9600, its highest in a month…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    But it is Ethereum that is stealing the show for now, ripping higher to $170 – its highest since February…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    With yields crashing to near record lows around the world, negative-yielding debt is once again on the rise making the zero-yielding precious metals and crypto even more attractive as a lower cost place to store wealth…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    And it seems crypto has some catching up to do as gold and negative-yielding debt values trade tick for tick higher.

    As Tyler Winklevoss recently noted, “The Fed continues to set the stage for bitcoin’s next bull run,” in a July 22 tweet, which included an article link on the government agency’s discussions of further stimulus spending.  

    As a decentralized borderless digital asset away from government control, Bitcoin holds as a potential hedge to mainstream markets and national dollars — a point often stressed by a number of crypto industry participants.

    Bitcoin holds a 21 million coin maximum supply, protecting the asset against value dilution. “When money printer go brrrr and inflate the stonks market, it’s time to Bitcoin,” Winkelvoss said in a July 18 tweet, referring to U.S. money printing resulting in a rising stock market, while giving the nod to Bitcoin as an alternative.

  • Campus Reform Reporters, Professor Targeted With Death Threats, Online Harassment
    Campus Reform Reporters, Professor Targeted With Death Threats, Online Harassment

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 20:00

    Authored by Addison Smith via CampusReform.org,

    Campus Reform correspondents and Syracuse University students Justine Murray and Adrianna San Marco were recently harassed and threatened on social media for their conservative values, receiving a string of death threats and social media harassment. 

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    Murray is no stranger to harassment. Campus Reformreported in February on Murray’s allegations that professors targeted her on social media. Now, Murray has begun receiving criticism on social media for allegedly “antagonizing” people of color. 

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    On June 21, SU alumna Tayla Myree posted a screenshot of a now-deleted Thanksgiving post of Murray sarcastically captioning her photo “CuLtUrAl GeNoCiDe  #HappyThanksgiving,” joking of a leftist talking point referring to Thanksgiving as a celebration of cultural genocide. 

    Myree called Murray an “open racist,” accusing her of “constantly antagonizing” minority students on campus.

    “I’m tired of us staying silent about the open racists that attend @syracuseu. Justine Brooke Murray has consistently antagonized BIPOC students at Syracuse for years and has yet to be reprimanded for harassing students,” Myree’s post read.

    Myree then criticized Murray for being pro-free speech, calling her the “free speech police.”

    “Justine is a part of what I recognize as the ‘free speech police’ which are students who openly advocate for students to have the right to say whatever they want without consequence, free speech does not extend to hate speech ma’am, and hate speech has ZERO place on any campus.” 

    The post quickly spread on social media, gaining thousands of likes and hundreds of comments. 

    Murray’s social media quickly became flooded with death threats and other smears. One individual dedicated an account threatening to kill her titled, @basilkillsjustinebrookemurray. The culprit publicly called for her home address to be leaked, threatening to “cut u 2 pieces” and “ima kill u.”

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    Murray told Campus Reform that this has been a common occurrence during her time at Syracuse:

    [I have been harassed] Since my first semester in my freshman year. It was instantaneous. A couple of the highlights included students banning me from what they called the ‘multi-cultural floor’ of my freshman dormitory because I dressed up as the First Lady for Halloween,” Murray said.

    She then expressed concern for her safety and said the administration has not taken action. 

    “I feel unsafe going back to campus. And I decided that I will not be going back to campus…in the fall. Or, I don’t think I will be going back to campus in the fall,” Murray said. She also alleges that the administration has stayed silent throughout this situation. 

    “The administration at SU has done nothing.  The campus police keep taking reports from me and  I’ve been in touch with them repeatedly. They did get between me and the mob a couple of times. But they know the students involved and, to date, I know of no action taken against the ones who pushed me, intimidated me, or chased me,” Murray said in an email to Campus Reform. 

    Murray also obtained several screenshots of harassing messages aimed at Miriam Elman, a Jewish political-science professor at the school. 

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    One individual took to Twitter accusing Elman of having “discriminated against many Arab students” and “islamophobia.” One Instagram account, @Bipoc.syracuse, posted a story aimed at “openly zionist professors,” sparking a barrage of online attacks toward Elman, and accusations of her supposedly discriminatory behavior. 

    Soon after, Elman allegedly received an email, obtained by Campus Reform, in which she was called a “fat, white Judeo-Christian Zionist supremacist Jew.” The email also allegedly slandered her Jewish religion as a “racist cult.”

    “Fuck you, fuck Israel,  fuck judaism,  fuck your Torah and talmud,” the email read.

    Elman did not comment on personal allegations but told Campus Reform of her disappointment to see such posts.

    “What could have been an invitation to thoughtful discussion and a valuable online platform for students to express their experiences with racism on campus and to brainstorm practical solutions, so quickly morphed into antisemitic attacks on faculty and students. To see Jewish professors and students targeted for their identity and faith is intolerable. To see this on a self-described anti-racist platform is truly disheartening,” Elman said in an email to Campus Reform

    Elman insisted that antisemitism is on the rise on campuses across America.

    “On far too many campuses, Jewish students are being told that they have to check a huge chunk of their identity–Zionism–as the price that they have to pay to be admitted into progressive causes, coalitions, and campaigns. The trend we are seeing is an often intense intimidation, with Jewish students essentially being presented with an ultimatum from their peers: either shed an integral component of your faith, or face social ostracism.”  

    San Marco also faced harassment after writing an opinion article calling institutional racism a “myth.” San Marco was fired from the Syracuse campus newspaper for the piece. 

    She alleged that people online threatened her with physical harm. One individual commented on her Instagram, “You better hope I don’t see your ass cuz I swear I’ll fuck your shit up” and another privately messaged her, saying, “Hope you fucking die soon bitch”

    People repeatedly threatened San Marco with physical violence. 

    “I wanna beat her ass sooooooo badddddd like I don’t even give a fuck,” someone commented on an Instagram post. 

    When San Marco tweeted a picture of a transgendered woman who was killed at a protest, saying “she should be remembered as her biological sex not her delusion,” an individual promptly replied, “Disgusting. Hope the same is said to you when you get a bullet in the head for being racist.”

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    In a Twitter thread, another individual referred to San Marco as “that Wicked White Syracuse Bitch.” 

    “Please don’t let me see that Wicked White Syracuse Bitch in person that’s all imma say. I would love 5 minutes with the ugly racist bitch. Like you’re using my friends tweets for what? She said what she said. White people like this say absurd things just so other dumb and evil whites can co-sign them. I’ll beat the shit out this hoe though,” she wrote, encouraging people to “Beat Tf Out Of Racist White Bitches 2020.”

    When San Marco tweeted about the threat, another Twitter user replied, “conservatives students deserve to get beat up… y’all ugly”

    When confronted about this threat, the user directly advocated for San Marco to be physically assaulted.

    “Yes i want her attacked,” she replied.

    More people took to Twitter calling for Syracuse to expel her for her conservative column.

    “@SyracuseU this girl should, at the very least, be considered for suspension for incredible academic negligence. Is this how you teach your students? To create such a false conclusion based on one study debunked by its own writers? This is pathetic. Expel her,” the tweet read. 

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    Another person threatened to report her, tweeting, “You should not be allowed to step foot on the campus because you are dangerous.”

    San Marco said the SU administration has not taken any action against these threats. On June 24, she sent an email to the school Chancellor Kent Syverud and three other leaders at the university, expressing her concern for her safety. 

    I have received countless physical threats by other students at SU and alumni alike. (read the attachments below). During this time I have made reports with The Department of Public Safety and spoken to officers multiple times. These reports don’t make me feel safer. They don’t assure me that the students targeting me will face consequences nor do they provide promise that these threats will not be carried out,” San Marco said in a letter to the school.

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    San Marco then took aim at the school for its alleged negligence.

    I am fearful for my life on our campus and you are silent. As a student I am unsure whether I will return to campus this Fall. My family is terrified for me. My mother is afraid to read comments under my social media posts and my sisters have begged me not to return. This is what your silence has done. You have emboldened our community and led them to believe that they have full impunity to say and do whatever they please without consequence,” she added.

    In an interview with Campus Reform, San Marco said she was initially not public about her conservative views for fear of the threats she has now received. “I have avoided being open about my views because I didn’t want to experience the harassment that I’m getting now. The blatant hatred and harassment I have been receiving the past couple of weeks stem from the opinions piece I wrote in early June. I have received so many threats that returning to campus has become a real safety concern. I am fearful that someone will attack me while I’m walking home at night,” she said in an email to Campus Reform.

    The administration has been silent. I filed multiple reports with the Department of Public Safety at Syracuse University over the vile comments and messages I received, yet none of my administrators have reached out to me. In fact, last week I emailed multiple high-level administrators pleading with them to take action and protect their conservative students and they never responded.”

    San Marco has now told Campus Reform she will be transferring out of Syracuse due to concern for her safety.

    “I will not be returning,” San Marco said. “It’s just not safe on campus right now, unfortunately.”

    San Marco posted a letter to Twitter explaining her decision:

    “My time on Syracuse University’s campus has come to a close. After continued silence from administrators and further degration [sic] to my safety I can no longer justify returning to campus this fall,” she wrote. 

    Syracuse did not respond to request for comment in time for publication. 

  • How Shady 'Shadow Lenders' Are Helping Fuel The $1.6 Trillion Student-Loan Crisis
    How Shady ‘Shadow Lenders’ Are Helping Fuel The $1.6 Trillion Student-Loan Crisis

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 19:40

    Discerning between which colleges are outright scams, and which are venerable American institutions isn’t always easy. After all, if we’re going solely by the advantage that a degree confers in the labor market, one could argue that a degree in art history from Wesleyan probably isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on, let alone the $250,000+ sticker price.

    But in a world where ‘non-profit’ institutions have accrued endowments worth hundreds of millions (and in some cases, billions) solely from ‘alumni fundraising’, yet still charge teenagers unimaginable sums for degrees that they don’t necessarily want or need (but have been brainwashed by society to believe they most possess), the standard for what constitutes abusive and predatory behavior is probably unjustifiably high.

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    In a recent study by the Student Borrower Protection Center, an advocacy group that purports to protect students from predatory lenders, researchers described a $5 billion “shadow lending” network that they said charged exorbitant interest rates – sometimes as high as 35% annually – to lend to students at for-profit colleges which often have poor track records of guiding students to the jobs market.

    Of course, Americans have $1.6 trillion in student loans outstanding. Compared to this, $5 billion over a decade is a drop in the bucket. But like most lenders who specialize in extending credit to the desperately poor, the lenders who partner with these schools engage in all kinds of deceptive and shady practices, often with the explicit aid of the schools they work with.

    Over the past decade, students have borrowed more than $5 billion through an opaque web of companies to pay for training at for-profit schools, the Student Borrower Protection Center, an advocacy group, found. These products, which aren’t traditional federal or private student loans, often carry high interest rates and other risks for borrowers, according to the SBPC.

    In addition, by providing financing to students, this shadow credit system, as the SBPC dubs it, helps to keep programs training students for careers in fields like trucking and cosmetology in business — even when they’re prohibitively expensive for many and don’t provide graduates with a credential that’s valuable in the labor market.

    “This whole cottage industry is allowed to prey on and rip off the most vulnerable borrowers in our country,” said Seth Frotman, the executive director of the Student Borrower Protection Center.  “These players are key cogs in the larger student-debt crisis, but also critical components of what allows predatory schools to thrive.”

    What’s more, as private lenders have largely abandoned the student lending business since the financial crisis, leaving it mostly to government-sponsored enterprises, these shady enterprises have flourished.

    Though typically out of the public and regulatory eye, these products have taken on a more prominent role in the student finance landscape since the Great Recession, according to the SBPC’s report. In the past, for-profit colleges relied on traditional, private lenders to provide loans to students, which were bundled together and sold to investors. Often these loans were made to students with little regard for whether they would be able to repay them.

    In the years since the financial crisis, traditional, private lenders have dramatically reduced their involvement in the student-loan market broadly. These so-called shadow lenders stepped in to fill the void for students financing career training at for-profit colleges, according to the report.

    These companies work with schools in three key ways, the report found. The first is as an exclusive partner for students needing financing. In some cases that can mean developing a product for a specific program or helping a school lend to its students. The second is by offering an independent credit product that in some cases schools will promote through their website or financial aid materials.

    The third is servicing or collecting on debt students owe to schools for tuition. In these cases, students will enroll in a course without paying anything up front, but wind up owing this money with interest. Some of the companies highlighted in the SBPC report work with schools to service and collect this debt, they found.

    But even ‘legitimate’ colleges can use these lenders to fulfill a provision of federal law that requires schools to derive at least some of their money from independent sources.

    In addition, some products require that borrowers be rejected by another lender before being approved; others advertise that they can provide financing without a credit check or underwriting.

    Meanwhile for the colleges, the products allow a means to sidestep regulation, the report found. For schools that rely on federal financial aid, these products can help them comply with the 90/10 regulation, a rule that requires colleges receiving federal financial aid to get at least 10% of their funds from a source other than the government’s student loan program. By working with these opaque lenders, schools can create their own lending programs that students can use to finance tuition, which don’t count toward the 90% limit on federal financial aid financing.

    The progressive left’s discussion of endemic economic inequality in America always seems to focus on tech companies, whom they blame for not hiring enough black and latino and LGBTQ workers, despite the fact that these firms already hire many non-white workers (but for the purposes of diversity, women and people of Asian background don’t apparently count). Why is it that these companies seem to fall perennially short, giving their activist critics the illusion of credibility? CEOs frequently explain that the talent pool (ie qualified graduates) simply doesn’t allow it.

    And why is that? Because people whose parents didn’t attend college don’t see the sense in taking on an unfathomable amount of debt, all for an excuse to spend four years partying and acting like an overgrown child. And honestly, we can’t blame them.

  • What Capitalism Can Do When Allowed, And Communism Never Will
    What Capitalism Can Do When Allowed, And Communism Never Will

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 19:20

    Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investments,

    Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1990 “for his leading role in the peace process which today characterizes important parts of the international community.” Maybe, but it sure didn’t start out that way.

    By that, I don’t mean to suggest Gorbachev was some warmonger cloaking himself in the language of peace. On the contrary, the man was sincere. He was also sincere in his commitment to Communism and the Soviet way. What ultimately led him to such international acclaim was first his honesty in looking inward at that system itself. The rest was mere expedience.

    History has made the words perestroika (restructure) and glasnost (literally: listen) synonymous with the man. And while these were crucial in how the old Soviet way would end up being dismantled, it was very far from their original purpose.

    On December 15, 1984, at the Soviet embassy in London, Gorbachev met with KGB agents and representatives from officers in its Line X. The latter were there to bring him up to speed on its tactical successes. Line X had been established for the purposes of stealing particularly American technology. Not military secrets, mind you, corporate knowledge, new products, and know-how.

    Gorbachev himself wasn’t yet in full control of the massive Soviet empire. Though Yuri Andropov had died that February, and had made it widely known he wished Gorbachev to succeed him as General Secretary of the Communist Party, some top government politicians were concerned he was too young (53 at the time) standing up Konstantin Chernenko (a holdover Brezhnev guy) instead.

    Chernenko was Gorbachev’s opposite in many ways, including age. Too old and too frail, it was left to the younger man to essentially take control regardless of who had officially followed Andropov.

    Most importantly, though, where Chernenko and his support base had been concerned, the Soviet state should hold fast to the course they were on. Gorbachev, like Andropov, realized this was suicide. But, they had judged Soviet Russia’s faults lay with the application of Marxist-Leninist thought, not in the doctrines themselves.

    Very early on in the Russian Revolution, as far back as 1918, before the Red government was really fully operational, there was already a coalescing secret police apparatus being put in place. Directorate K, for example, was charged with counter-intelligence which, back then, meant spying as much on Russians as anyone else. Service A was dedicated to developing active measures to assist each directorate and its various departments.

    Directorate T was the scientific and technical intelligence division. As Lenin himself allegedly said, the Communists would need to pursue Western technology “with both hands.”

    Communism, you see, isn’t meant to compete with capitalism, rather it is meant to replace it. The capitalists create all this marvelous technology which the Communists then expropriate as the basis from which to create their perfect human society.

    As I wrote last week, that’s why Karl Marx had envisioned (demanded, in some parts of his work) that the socialist revolutions would take place only where industrial capitalism had already contributed such grand innovations and knowledge. To attempt to impose communism on a pre-industrialized society was, even to Marx and his partner Friedrich Engels, madness. Doomed to failure.

    Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov (Lenin) wouldn’t wait, however, even though Russia was nowhere near this prerequisite state. Instead, he’d try it his own way; the revolutionaries would take over before the country was ready economically, and then, often using capitalist practices, they would bring the country up to snuff (central planning) beginning with the first National Economic Plan in 1921.

    And, as much as possible, pilfer, filch, and steal every single bit of technology and innovation they could from the capitalist pigs to speed up the process and narrow the gap.

    It was Leon Trotsky who had taken this idea to its furthest conclusion, in the process angering Josef Stalin. Writing later to try to save himself from Uncle Joe’s angry gaze, unsuccessfully, Trotsky clarified how his thoughts were consistent with Lenin’s; including how he, like Lenin, had spoken often of the possibility Marx was wrong. Perhaps not all national systems needed to pass through the democratic, capitalist stage in order to set the proper stage for pure socialism.

    So long as some in the world industrialized and took the capitalism road as far as it would take them, pre-industrialized societies had the right to expropriate those gains, catch up to them, and then even lead the entire world, capitalist, too, in a global socialist revolution overthrowing the entire old order.

    In his Pre-Requisites of Socialism, written back in 1919, Trotsky argued how the technological gap had become so large it wasn’t realistic to expect the socialist system (of co-operatives) to have to catch up. Instead:

    “It is evident that if this took place, the co-operative societies would then simply have automatically to expropriate all capitalist undertakings, after which it would remain for them to reduce the working day sufficiently to provide work for all citizens and to regulate the amount of production in the various branches in order to avoid crises. In this manner, the main features of socialism would be established. Again, it is clear that no revolution and no dictatorship of the working class would be at all necessary.”

    That would mean to literally “expropriate all capitalist undertakings” everywhere; not just what little had been induced in Russia.

    Stalin, on the other hand, wanted to focus his iron grip on Russia alone, perfecting this sort of heterodox socialist experiment in that place before exporting the revolution elsewhere (Socialism In A Single Country), putting him at odds with this Trotsky-ite Permanent Revolution viewing everything globally.

    Gorbachev, like Andropov, fell somewhere in the middle. He wanted to get Soviet Communism right, to focus just on the Russian version, and was absolutely dedicated to doing so. But in order to have any chance, they’d have to catch up using any means they could. Still committed to the Revolution, in 1985 he said:

    “We must not change our policy. It is right, correct, authentically Leninist. We have to accelerate our rhythm, go ahead, be frank and overcome our faults and see clearly our luminous future.”

    Directorate T and Line X had implanted agents all over the West in the seventies, taking full advantage of the pre-Reagan policy of “détente” in going after the soft corporate targets of especially technology companies. In July 1981, French President Francois Mitterrand demanded a private conversation with Ronald Reagan to inform the new US President of a Line X spy’s defection to French Intelligence.

    Colonel Vladimir I. Vetrov, a KGB Directorate T official, had handed over purportedly thousands of documents showing the mountains of secrets Line X had robbed from Corporate America, particularly the potential from its nascent computer industry just then becoming unlocked.

    Vetrov, given the French codename Farewell, showed how infiltrators would insert themselves into otherwise benign foreign delegations touring private corporate facilities. In one instance, at a visit to a sensitive Boeing factory, Line X personnel applied adhesive to the bottoms of their shoes to covertly pick up samples of any stray material uncollected on the facility floor for scientists back in Russia to examine and extrapolate.

    According to US intelligence sources, the Americans used Farewell’s information to implant all kinds of false data, unworkable technology, and ridiculous plans in a counterintelligence sting that ran for years. By the time Gorbachev was in London being amazed at all these tactical successes, they had been widely compromised and stopped being very useful (in one story, the CIA allegedly convinced a chipmaker to stamp a taunting message on one false mold so that when the mold was inevitably stolen and a Russian factory began producing the chips from it the note was reproduced right on the product for the predictably Russian audience to choke on; then there were the fake Space Shuttle plans and the real, flawed shuttle the Russians built from them).

    Perestroika wasn’t any kind of attempt at peaceful co-existence. As Gorbachev said to those KGB guys in London, Line X was supposed to be a key part of it! Reform was going to mean Trotsky plus Stalin equals Communism Wins.

    To put it quite simply, the Russian version of the Marxist revolution hadn’t gone very well. It was already two generations old, and the third had become sincerely apathetic about the whole enterprise. Under Brezhnev, instead of catching up to the West as had been planned the Russian economy kept falling further and further behind.

    Much of that was due to its attempts to export this brand of socialism to the rest of the world. The military spending this required, to keep the US at bay while they did this, the feeble economy just couldn’t support it. With production in domestic industries falling off, productivity in terminal decline, by the late seventies the Russians were in deep trouble.

    As one old Soviet joke said, whenever the Party boss showed up at the mine (or factory) to give the workers their daily admonishments to work harder, the workers would laugh to themselves about how they’d continue pretending to work so long as the Party continued pretending to pay them.

    This was no joke, not so far as the system was concerned. As Marx said, it is the workers who have to lead the revolution; if they don’t buy in, forget the whole thing. And in order for the workers to buy in, they have to have something to buy in to. A realistic future where the socialist paradise made sense, a much better alternative to the rising living standards and technological prowess on display practically everywhere else.

    It just never happened in Russia, after a few generations they figured how unrealistic it was, and here was Gorbachev to attempt dealing with the fallout. He only began by paring back Soviet military commitments. Right from the start, there was no hope of reforming the system with the economy having to carry such a massive burden (some estimates put military spending at 20 to 25% of meager contemporary Soviet GNP).

    With so much diverted to guns, there was no means by which to invest especially in developing new technologies and productive capacities in the true Marxist tradition. As Nikolai Leonov, a KGB general, wrote:

    “First there was a visible decline in the rate of growth, then its complete stagnation. There was a drawn-out, deepening, and almost insurmountable crisis in agriculture. It was a frightening and truly terrifying sign of crisis. It was these factors that were crucial in the transition to perestroika.”

    That was his “peace” initiative. Gorbachev had no alternative but to try to work with the Americans as his first step to getting the socialist dream back on track.

    The rest of perestroika was, get this, simple capitalism. Just as Lenin realized he had to take this step in 1921 (“one step backward in order to take two steps forward”), Gorbachev was acceding to doctrinaire Marxism; to try to restart the two-step approach all over again, to salvage the Revolution from Lenin’s original sin of jumping the gun before Russia was sufficiently advanced.

    By the eighties, it still wasn’t sufficiently progressed because capitalism across the rest of the world had redefined, yet again, the standard for “advanced.”

    Glasnost was political reform intended to soften the blow of Soviet hardliners who would resist any such sliding back defying the ideals of the Russian Revolution – just as Victor Serge had complained bitterly of Lenin in the early twenties and instead, clearing the path for Stalin. By softening up the uncompromising authoritarian stance which was Stalin’s legacy, and allowing at least some limited freedom of expression, Gorbachev counted on this openness clearing his path toward restructuring.

    Those reforms led ultimately to total dissolution. Why? Because as the central hand of the state was loosened, what there was of Russia’s economy simply collapsed further. Forget microchips and robotic assembly, mass starvation would come to be a very real prospect. Again.

    By 1990, it grew to full-blown crisis. Perestroika was significantly revised (for the fourth or fifth time, depending on who was keeping track) into a plan whose end would have meant full-blown, no holds barred, free-market capitalism. In Soviet Russia.

    In a top-secret document, now in the hands of the US Library of Congress, the minutes of Meeting No. 2 of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CPSU held on September 20, 1990, show that Gorbachev signed the following pledge on its behalf:

    “We adopt the position that was elaborated during the discussions of the Politburo of the Central Committee on the further activity to be taken by party organizations in connection with the conversion to a market economy, with the proviso that this matter is to be reviewed at the next Plenum of the Central Committee.”

    What followed was one radical proposal after another to do just that. The one which came closest to being acted upon was called the Five Hundred Day Program, or Shatalin Five Hundred Days Plan. Stanislav Shatalin along with Grigory Yavlinsky, an economist (Communist, but still) and close confidant of Gorbachev’s who had worked on perestroika with him throughout, had proposed selling off all state properties, rethinking much of the top-down economic structure, and sanctioning a return to private property.

    Even a true stock market.

    It never happened. The hardline opposition Gorbachev had skillfully kept at bay with glasnost on his hip would no longer be held back by such a radical move. Forcing him to first denounce the Shatalin plan after so publicly supporting it, and Yavlinsky, Gorbachev tried to find compromises that just weren’t available. In August 1991, the old guard Communists attempted their coup.

    Though he survived it, Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev was out not long after and the Soviet Union gone with him.

    In January 1992, not coincidentally, Deng Xiaoping embarked upon his famous Southern Tour; his political campaign to convince Chinese Communist hardliners that they had better remember their Marx, their Trotsky, and to see the Soviet example for what it represented. The risks were more than real, and right next door.

    Like Russia, China had been forced into its socialist revolution too soon. The Chinese economy was even less industrialized in 1949 than Russia’s had been three decades earlier. Not much had changed by 1989 when the massacre at Tiananmen Square turned world opinion solidly against them. Cooperation wasn’t much of an option.

    If China’s Communist Revolution hoped to survive, it would have to go all the way – on the economy. Embrace the wealth and technology that only a capitalist system could invent and then multiply. And, of course, stealing, pilfering, and thieving as much as possible where possible; that’s the part of Trotsky they all seem to agree on.

    Unlike the Russians, though, the Chinese would keep a tighter political grip while this happened. That’s the lesson they ultimately learned; more wealth first, and even more authoritarian to achieve it. So long as the rest of the world’s workers refused Trotsky’s old invitation, China would have to do it Stalin-style: Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in One Country.

    They keep waiting for “enough” wealth to be created, or just show up at their doorstep delivered clandestinely by whatever they might call their own version of Line X in Chinese, since communism doesn’t create its own wealth. They’ve been indoctrinated into believing that the capitalist West will, eventually, exhaust itself, the Communist countries industrialized as well as pre-industrialized will catch up, and then the workers of the world will unite!

    It just never happens. Those countries unfortunate enough to fall victim to this misanthropic, ill-conceived, and, really, stupid ideology end up with authoritarians trying to transition their economy from wherever it was before to where it cannot and never will go. Instead, they’re just stuck with the authoritarians and their quixotic quest to impose their utopia which justifies the authoritarianism – and all its evils – in the minds of the authoritarians.

    And over the years, especially recent years, proponents have made all kinds of excuses for why Soviet Russia didn’t fail, or if it did why it wasn’t their fault. Blah. Blah. Don’t listen to them; watch what they all did in the early nineties, especially the Chinese. China’s miracle growth and breathtaking transformation since that very time isn’t actually a miracle at all, nor was its timing coincidence.

    As much as they might want to, they just can’t steal their way to paradise. And if there’s always more left to steal, where does it truly end?

    It’s what capitalism can do, when allowed, and what communism never will. There’s no such thing as terminal wealth and technology. After almost four centuries of progress, we should expect and even prepare for how it all just stops? As I wrote above, socialism really is a stupid, deeply misanthropic ideology.

    Capitalism sure is messy, unpredictable, and, most of all, lumpy. It doesn’t go in a straight line, can cause tremendous stress and pain, and there are times when it gets caught up, for prolonged periods, in the bureaucratic messes of interfering morons. But once it is eventually set free, stable money, the world’s workers end up united if only in having no interest in the deplorable Marxist revolution – Trotsky, Lenin, or Mao – and its authoritarian Hotel California.

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    For as bad as it might get at times, including these, it sure can get worse. If we let it. The trick is, not to fall for the trick in the first place. If you never check in, you’ll never have to worry about how you can never check out.

  • Lumber Futures Fade From Two Year High As Recovery Stalls 
    Lumber Futures Fade From Two Year High As Recovery Stalls 

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 19:00

    Lumber futures have more than doubled since the lows in April as consumers ramped up renovations on homes during the pandemic, and others exited cities for suburbs while timber shortages developed. 

    In 15 weeks, or from the start of April 1, CME lumber futures climbed from $255 to $583, a 128% increase, hitting a two-year high.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>Demand for lumber surged in April as consumers during the pandemic renovated their homes. Others took advantage of low-interest rates and escaped the socio-economic implosion in cities and quickly moved to rural communities. The surge in demand appears to be temporary and seasonal. 

    Bloomberg quoted RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Quinn as saying the virus-induced recession was initially supposed to damage housing but instead sparked a boom. 

    Massive production cuts at sawmills in April (due to virus lockdowns) with low inventory were several factors leading to the rise in lumber futures. 

    “Inventories are still very low,” Quinn said. “Significant permanent capacity closures have led to widespread shortages.”

    Optimism in housing and the economy have been a byproduct of the Federal Reserve and US government pumping trillions of dollars into the economy. The rise in lumber futures should not be confused with a V-shaped recovery in the economy. 

    “The perfect storm of stimulus, liquidity, supply chain constraints, and seasonality have benefited lumber. Looking forward, all of the above go away,”  said Teddy Vallee, CIO of Pervalle Global

    3-Month Treasury bill rate didn’t follow lumber futures higher as in past recoveries, suggesting timber prices will come back down to Earth as the economy is far from a robust recovery.

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    There are significant headwinds in the housing market, including 4.1 million loans in forbearance, high unemployment, a quarter of personal income is derived from the government, and housing prices are expected to slump in major cities. 

    With the recovery stalling, lumber futures might be introduced to our friend named gravity.

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Today’s News 22nd July 2020

  • Africa Has A Huge Advantage Over The US When It Comes To Fighting Coronavirus
    Africa Has A Huge Advantage Over The US When It Comes To Fighting Coronavirus

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 02:45

    As SARS-CoV-2 sweeps across India, Latin America and – of course – the US, epidemiologists are looking toward Africa, which has seen cases surge higher in recent weeks, due to outbreaks in South Africa, Egypt and a few other countries that comprise the majority of the continent’s confirmed cases.

    According to the WHO, 47 of Africa’s 54 member states are affected, with 701,807 total cases…

    …and 14,946 deaths. South Africa, the worst-hit country, is now reporting more than 10k new cases a day, surpassing 300k cases late last week.

    We mentioned earlier that more than half of the cases confirmed on the continent can be traced to five countries: South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and Ghana. Although higher testing capacity is a factor, those countries also have more international ties than other relatively more isolated countries on the continent.

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    But as Africa’s daily totals move higher, the question of whether the continent is on the verge of a major outbreak is certainly worth considering. In a recent piece, the FT lays out the risks, as well as evidence to suggest that the worst might already be over.

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    Despite having far fewer public health resources, when facing down the coronavirus, Africa has one huge advantage over the US: the age of its population.

    This fact alone makes the average African up to 6x more likely to survive infection by the coronavirus than the average American. In Africa, the median age is 19.4, while in the US it’s 38.

    All the ventilators in the world couldn’t compensate for the tremendous age difference. This is just one more reason to wonder: Is it possible the level of ‘silent’ community spread is even larger than authorities understand?

    Sema Sgaier, executive director of Surgo Foundation, a non-profit organisation, agrees that the pandemic has much further to run in Africa. Her foundation has compiled an index from open source data of regions most vulnerable to the social, economic and health impacts of Covid-19. Among those highlighted are Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Malawi, Ethiopia and Uganda — all countries where the pandemic is yet to really take hold. There remains some cause for cautious optimism, Ms Sgaier says. Even if the virus ends up spreading as widely in Africa as in Europe and the Americas, it is likely to kill fewer people, she says, because of the continent’s more youthful population. Africa has a median age of 19.4 years against 38 in the US and 43 in Europe. Based on age and gender distribution, the Surgo Foundation estimates Africa’s infection fatality rate — the proportion of deaths among those infected — at 0.1 to 0.15 per cent. Adjusting for the poor quality of health services with a lack of oxygen and ventilators as well as for co-morbidities, such as HIV/Aids, it puts the infection fatality rate at an average 0.55 per cent, with the best countries in Africa at 0.22 and the worst at 0.76 per cent. That compares with 1.3 per cent in the US, meaning that an African infected with Covid-19 is between twice and six times more likely to survive than an American.

    An FT illustration contrasts the average age of Africa’s population not only with the west, but with Asia as well.

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    Several studies have suggested that Africans, due to their young age, may see up to 2/3rds of cases as asymptomatic.

    There is also tentative evidence emerging that African countries may have a high prevalence of asymptomatic cases thanks to its young population. An antibody study conducted by the Mozambican government in the northern city of Nampula with a population of 750,000 found that some two-thirds of people infected had suffered only very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all.  In addition, the study found that 5 per cent of people in the community and 10 per cent of market vendors had been infected with coronavirus. Yet only four Covid-19 deaths have been recorded in Nampula province out of nine in the country as a whole. Even Mr Nkengasong at the Africa CDC, who has strongly cautioned against complacency, acknowledges that the continent’s young population means the death rate is likely to be lower. “We see these young people running around with Covid, just living their lives normally,” he says. “But we need to back this up with appropriate studies.”

    But even if the lower-end estimates prove correct, if 60% of the continent’s population is infected, more than 4 million could die. Even half that number would be a catastrophe. Complicating things is Africa’s endemic poverty, which often means lockdowns are an impossibility, since people would effectively be doomed to starve.

  • New Kosovo Indictment Is A Reminder Of Bill Clinton's Serbian War Atrocities
    New Kosovo Indictment Is A Reminder Of Bill Clinton’s Serbian War Atrocities

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/22/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by James Bovard via The Mises Institute,

    President Bill Clinton’s favorite freedom fighter just got indicted for mass murder, torture, kidnapping, and other crimes against humanity. In 1999, the Clinton administration launched a 78-day bombing campaign that killed up to fifteen hundred civilians in Serbia and Kosovo in what the American media proudly portrayed as a crusade against ethnic bias. That war, like most of the pretenses of US foreign policy, was always a sham.

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    Kosovo president Hashim Thaci was charged with ten counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity by an international tribunal in The Hague, in the Netherlands. It charged Thaci and nine other men with “war crimes, including murder, enforced disappearance of persons, persecution, and torture.” Thaci and the other charged suspects were accused of being “criminally responsible for nearly 100 murders” and the indictment involved “hundreds of known victims of Kosovo Albanian, Serb, Roma, and other ethnicities and include political opponents.”

    Hashim Thaci’s tawdry career illustrates how antiterrorism is a flag of convenience for Washington policymakers. Prior to becoming Kosovo’s president, Thaci was the head of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), fighting to force Serbs out of Kosovo. In 1999, the Clinton administration designated the KLA as “freedom fighters” despite their horrific past and gave them massive aid. The previous year, the State Department condemned “terrorist action by the so-called Kosovo Liberation Army.” The KLA was heavily involved in drug trafficking and had close to ties to Osama bin Laden.

    But arming the KLA and bombing Serbia helped Clinton portray himself as a crusader against injustice and shift public attention after his impeachment trial. Clinton was aided by many shameless members of Congress anxious to sanctify US killing. Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CN) whooped that the United States and the KLA “stand for the same values and principles. Fighting for the KLA is fighting for human rights and American values.” And since Clinton administration officials publicly compared Serb leader Slobodan Milošević to Hitler, every decent person was obliged to applaud the bombing campaign.

    Both the Serbs and ethnic Albanians committed atrocities in the bitter strife in Kosovo. But to sanctify its bombing campaign, the Clinton administration waved a magic wand and made the KLA’s atrocities disappear. British professor Philip Hammond noted that the 78-day bombing campaign “was not a purely military operation: NATO also destroyed what it called ‘dual-use’ targets, such as factories, city bridges, and even the main television building in downtown Belgrade, in an attempt to terrorize the country into surrender.”

    NATO repeatedly dropped cluster bombs into marketplaces, hospitals, and other civilian areas. Cluster bombs are antipersonnel devices designed to be scattered across enemy troop formations. NATO dropped more than thirteen hundred cluster bombs on Serbia and Kosovo, and each bomb contained 208 separate bomblets that floated to earth by parachute. Bomb experts estimated that more than ten thousand unexploded bomblets were scattered around the landscape when the bombing ended and maimed children long after the ceasefire.

    In the final days of the bombing campaign, the Washington Post reported that “some presidential aides and friends are describing Kosovo in Churchillian tones, as Clinton’s ‘finest hour.’” The Post also reported that according to one Clinton friend “what Clinton believes were the unambiguously moral motives for NATO’s intervention represented a chance to soothe regrets harbored in Clinton’s own conscience….The friend said Clinton has at times lamented that the generation before him was able to serve in a war with a plainly noble purpose, and he feels ‘almost cheated’ that ‘when it was his turn he didn’t have the chance to be part of a moral cause.’” By Clinton’s standard, slaughtering Serbs was “close enough for government work” to a “moral cause.”

    Shortly after the end of the 1999 bombing campaign, Clinton enunciated what his aides labeled the Clinton doctrine: “Whether within or beyond the borders of a country, if the world community has the power to stop it, we ought to stop genocide and ethnic cleansing.” In reality, the Clinton doctrine was that presidents are entitled to commence bombing foreign lands based on any brazen lie that the American media will regurgitate. In reality, the lesson from bombing Serbia is that American politicians merely need to publicly recite the word “genocide” to get a license to kill.

    After the bombing ended, Clinton assured the Serbian people that the United States and NATO agreed to be peacekeepers only “with the understanding that they would protect Serbs as well as ethnic Albanians and that they would leave when peace took hold.” In the subsequent months and years, American and NATO forces stood by as the KLA resumed its ethnic cleansing, slaughtering Serb civilians, bombing Serbian churches and oppressing any non-Muslims. Almost a quarter million Serbs, Gypsies, Jews, and other minorities fled Kosovo after Mr. Clinton promised to protect them. By 2003, almost 70 percent of the Serbs living in Kosovo in 1999 had fled and Kosovo was 95 percent ethnic Albanian.

    But Thaci remained useful for US policymakers. Even though he was widely condemned for oppression and corruption after taking power in Kosovo, Vice President Joe Biden hailed Thaci in 2010 as the “George Washington of Kosovo.” A few months later, a Council of Europe report accused Thaci and KLA operatives of human organ trafficking. The Guardian noted that the report alleged that Thaci’s inner circle “took captives across the border into Albania after the war, where a number of Serbs are said to have been murdered for their kidneys, which were sold on the black market.” The report stated that when “transplant surgeons” were “ready to operate, the [Serbian] captives were brought out of the ‘safe house’ individually, summarily executed by a KLA gunman, and their corpses transported swiftly to the operating clinic.”

    Despite the organ trafficking charge, Thaci was a star attendee at the annual Global Initiative conference by the Clinton Foundation in 2011, 2012, and 2013, where he posed for photos with Bill Clinton. Maybe that was a perk from the $50,000 a month lobbying contract that Thaci’s regime signed with the Podesta Group, comanaged by future Hillary Clinton campaign manager John Podesta, as the Daily Caller reported.

    Clinton remains a hero in Kosovo, where a statue of him was erected in the capital, Pristina. The Guardian newspaper noted that the statue showed Clinton “with a left hand raised, a typical gesture of a leader greeting the masses. In his right hand he is holding documents engraved with the date when NATO started the bombardment of Serbia, 24 March 1999.” It would have been a more accurate representation to depict Clinton standing on a pile of corpses of the women, children, and others killed in the US bombing campaign.

    In 2019, Bill Clinton and his fanatically pro-bombing former secretary of state, Madeline Albright, visited Pristina, where they were “treated like rock stars” as they posed for photos with Thaci. Clinton declared, “I love this country and it will always be one of the greatest honors of my life to have stood with you against ethnic cleansing (by Serbian forces) and for freedom.” Thaci awarded Clinton and Albright medals of freedom “for the liberty he brought to us and the peace to entire region.” Albright has reinvented herself as a visionary warning against fascism in the Trump era. Actually, the only honorific that Albright deserves is “butcher of Belgrade.”

    Clinton’s war on Serbia was a Pandora’s box from which the world still suffers. Because politicians and most of the media portrayed the war against Serbia as a moral triumph, it was easier for the Bush administration to justify attacking Iraq, for the Obama administration to bomb Libya, and for the Trump administration to repeatedly bomb Syria. All of those interventions sowed chaos that continues cursing the purported beneficiaries.

    Bill Clinton’s 1999 bombing of Serbia was as big a fraud as George W. Bush’s conning this nation into attacking Iraq. The fact that Clinton and other top US government officials continued to glorify Hashim Thaci despite accusations of mass murder, torture, and organ trafficking is another reminder of the venality of much of America’s political elite. Will Americans again be gullible the next time that Washington policymakers and their media allies concoct bullshit pretexts to blow the hell out of some hapless foreign land?

  • GloboCap Über Alles
    GloboCap Über Alles

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 23:45

    Authored (satirically) by CJ Hopkins via ConsentFactory.org,

    So, how are you enjoying the “New Normal” so far? Is it paranoid and totalitarian enough for you? If not … well, hold on, because it’s just getting started. There is plenty more totalitarianism and paranoia still to come.

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    I know, it feels like forever already, but, in fact, it has only been a few months since GloboCap started rolling out the new official narrative. We’re still in the early stages of it. The phase we’re in now is kind of like where we were back in February of 2002, a few months after the 9/11 attacks, when everyone was still in shock, the Patriot Act was just a few months old, and the Department of Homeland Security hadn’t even been created yet.

    You remember how it was back then, when GloboCap was introducing the official “War on Terror” narrative, don’t you?

    OK, maybe you do and maybe you don’t. Maybe you’re too young to remember, or you were caught up in the excitement of the moment and weren’t paying attention to the details. But some of us remember it clearly. We remember watching (and futilely protesting) as GloboCap prepared to invade, destabilize, and restructure the entire Middle East, as countries throughout the global capitalist empire implemented “emergency security measures” (which, 18 years later, are still in effect), as the corporate media bombarded us with official propaganda, jacked up The Fear, and otherwise prepared us for the previous “New Normal” … some of us remember all that clearly.

    Personally, I remember listening to a liberal academic on NPR calmly speculating that, just hypothetically, at some point in the not-too-distant future, we might need to sacrifice our principles a bit, and torture some people, to “keep America safe.” I recounted this to other Americans at the time, among my many other concerns about where the post-9/11 mass hysteria was heading. Most of them told me I was just being paranoid, or that they didn’t really care, because we needed to do whatever was “necessary” to protect Americans, and, in any event, “the terrorists deserved it.” Shortly thereafter, I started making plans to get the hell out of the country.

    I mention that, not to signal my virtue — leaving the U.S.A. didn’t achieve anything, except for improving my standard of living — but to jog your memory, and maybe prompt you to compare that period to the one we are in now. The parallels are overwhelming. The “state of emergency.” The propaganda. The mass hysteria. The mob mentality. The exaggeration of the actual threat. The police-state atmosphere. The suppression of dissent. The constant repetition of the new official narrative. The exhortative catchphrases and meaningless slogans. The confusion. The chaos. The existential fear. And so on. It is all so very familiar.

    I’m referring to the simulated pandemic, of course, but also to the racialized civil unrest and identitarian polarization that GloboCap has fomented throughout the United States, and, to varying degrees, the rest of the empire. I’ve been covering the War on Populism and GloboCap’s “Trump-is-literally-Hitler” propaganda since 2016, so the civil unrest isn’t terribly surprising. But, I confess, I did not see the fake plague coming. Running the two psy-ops together was brilliant. The effect on people has been devastating. Everyone is either depressed or enraged, or in some stage of paranoid paralysis. Some have been so thoroughly terrorized that they are literally refusing to leave their houses. Others are lining up at gun shops. White people are getting down on their knees and publicly washing Black people’s feet in “symbolic demonstrations of forgiveness.” Condiments are changing their names. It’s like we’re all trapped in a gratuitously didactic Netflix zombie-apocalypse series set in the world of The Handmaid’s Tale, written, directed, and produced by Spike Lee.

    The official propaganda could not be more Orwellian, nor could people’s willingness to go along with it. It doesn’t even have to appear to make sense. Doublethink has taken over. For example, most of the developed world has been in some form of totalitarian lockdown, and subjected to other police-state measures (like being beaten and arrested for not wearing a mask), for no justifiable reason whatsoever, for going on the last five months, but, according to the corporate media (and the millions of people they have apparently brainwashed), it’s only now that Trump has sent his Homeland Security goons into Portland that, suddenly, “democracy is under attack!”

    But wait … no, I take it back, the Orwellianism gets even more Orwellian. According to GloboCap and its sanctimonious minions, that sentence I just wrote about Portland is racist, because nearly everything you can imagine is racist, or is a potential threat to the public health. Calling riots “riots” is racistSilence is racistFree speech is racistRefusing to wear a mask is racistThe BLM protesters are immune to the virus, but other large gatherings (which, it goes without saying, are probably racist) all have to be banned. Normality, as Americans knew it, is over, and it is never, ever, coming back, because white supremacy caused the pandemic. Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland (where life has been going on without mass hysteria) do not exist. They have never existed (and, if they ever did, they were probably racist). Talking on public transportation is deadlyInteracting with children is potentially deadly, as are most other forms of human interaction … unless you’re tearing down a racist statue, or burning down a local family business, while wearing a designer anti-racism mask.

    Seriously, though, just like in 2002, when GloboCap was still rolling out the “War on Terror” narrative, the facts are all available for anyone who cares. The falsification of Covid statistics and hospital capacity figures, the unreliability of the tests, and so on … it has all been repeatedly documented. Anyone with a positive test result who later dies of any cause (including a fatal motorcycle accident) is counted as a “Covid death.” Anyone admitted to a hospital for anything who tests positive for the virus is a “Covid hospitalization.” And, I’m sorry to disappoint my liberal friends (assuming I have any left at this point), but systematic racism and police brutality did not suddenly begin in 2016.

    What suddenly began in 2016 was a concerted effort on the part of GloboCap to put down a growing populist backlash against global capitalism and its soulless ideology. Yes, most of that backlash is neo-nationalist in character, but it also includes a significant number of old-fashioned lefty-types like myself, and a lot of other un-woke folks who aren’t quite ready to embrace their new identities as interchangeable human commodities.

    We are experiencing the culmination of that effort (or what they hope is the culmination of that effort) to put down this motley populist insurgency, and ensure that it never happens again. GloboCap is teaching us a lesson. The lesson is:

    “This is what you get when you fuck around with GloboCap. This is what voting for Trump, Brexit, and all the rest of that ‘populist’ nonsense gets you … global pandemics, civil race wars, riots, lockdowns, economic depression, societal collapse, chaos, fear. Go ahead, fuck around with us some more. We will make you wear ridiculous face masks forever. We will paint little arrows and boxes on the floor to show you where to walk and stand. We will bankrupt your businesses, shut down your schools, psychologically torture your children. We’ll inject them with any fucking thing we want. There is nothing you can do about it. We will make you get down on your knees and apologize for fucking with us, or we will stigmatize you as a ‘racist,’ sic our mobs of fanatics on you, and ‘cancel’ you and your entire family.”

    This, essentially, is the message that GloboCap is delivering to disobedient populists (left or right, it makes no difference; GloboCap doesn’t care which political labels we cling to or slap on each other). It is our final warning to quit playing grab-ass, get with the global capitalist program, and start behaving and thinking as we’re told … unless we want to get locked down again, and ordered to wear things on our faces, and be otherwise ritually humiliated.

    See, the so-called “New Normal” (i.e., the new ideological narrative that GloboCap is rolling out) is actually not that new at all … or, OK, the pathologization part is (and I’ll be paying close attention to that aspect of it), but, basically, it’s just plain old totalitarianism. It isn’t state-totalitarianism, because our world isn’t ruled by nation-states. It is ruled by global capitalism. We are being reminded of that fact at the moment … and being shown what happens if we start to forget it.

    Where we go from here is anyone’s guess. My hunch is, it is only going to get worse until they can get Trump out of office, which Americans are liable to help them do, simply to make the whole nightmare stop. Once he’s gone, they’ll probably retire the fake pandemic, call off the riots, and stage some sort of international celebration of the Rebirth of Democracy, after which they can get finally back to the business of ruthlessly destabilizing, restructuring, and privatizing the planet, sanitizing history, curing humanity of racism, hate, and other pathologies, and otherwise enforcing rigid conformity to global capitalist ideology.

    Maybe they could get the Hamilton composer to write them a hip hop Deutschlandlied to use as a supranational anthem. They could call it GloboCap Über Alles … it kind of has a ring to it, doesn’t it?

  • Sun Belt States Choose "Third Path" To Confront COVID-19 Without Destroying Economy
    Sun Belt States Choose “Third Path” To Confront COVID-19 Without Destroying Economy

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 23:25

    In a research note published yesterday, a team of Goldman Sachs analysts spotted an ominous potential inflection point for the struggling US labor market: If the nascent ‘recovery’ achieved over the last 2 months loses steam as states reverse their plans to reopen the economy, it could do lasting harm to the labor market, as many of the jobs that disappear won’t ever return.

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    Also included in that note is a level-headed assessment of the current situation in the US. As we wait to see if any other states will follow in California’s footsteps by drastically rolling back its reopening plan, Goldman notes that most of the states in the Sun Belt are opting for a “third path” that differs from the established methods that worked in Europe and parts of Asia (mainland China, and, until recently, Hong Kong).

    In Europe, the most successful countries opted for strict economy crushing lockdowns While In Asia, countries like Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore acted swiftly to snuff out the initial wave of the virus.

    Here’s Goldman:

    “Some of the states that now have major virus problems are taking a third path, using limited measures to confront severe virus spread, with the hope that better-targeted measures can solve the problem at much lower cost. Coming weeks will reveal how well this works. The lower starting growth rate of virus spread means that more incremental measures might be sufficient to stabilize the situation, though they might also take longer to reduce spread to a rate that justifies resuming steps toward reopening.”

    The analysts elaborate on that theme in a section of the note entitled “A Targeted Approach To Virus Control”.

    * * *

    Continued rapid virus spread has made the US a notable outlier among advanced economies. The US is performing poorly on most key measures: new cases have risen to an average of 66,000 per day over the last week, nearly every state is reporting rising prevalence of COVID-19 symptoms, and twelve states are below the CDC-recommended threshold for available hospital capacity. We report these and other data daily in our state-level coronavirus tracker to monitor the risk of further reopening reversals.

    State governments see a return to an economically painful full lockdown as only a last resort. The current US strategy to suppress the virus instead emphasizes lower-cost behavioral and policy changes that are targeted to achieve maximum virus reduction at minimum economic cost. So far states have relied on two key policies: mandating mask wearing and restricting high-risk economic activity.

    The first pillar of the current US response is increasing the use of face masks, which we recently showed have a large impact on virus spread. Despite some initial reluctance, a growing number of state and local authorities have imposed mask mandates over the last month. We estimate that the share of the US population subject to a mask mandate has risen from 40% to over 70% over the last month, as shown on the left of Exhibit 1. In the Sun Belt, the share of the population who report wearing a mask in public has risen as the outbreak has grown, as shown on the right of Exhibit 1.

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    The second pillar of the current US response is restricting or shutting down high-risk economic activity. We and other researchers have shown that activities such as indoor dining are highly correlated with virus spread. This suggests that well-targeted restrictions can achieve much of the virus suppression achieved by full lockdowns, but at much lower cost. Exhibit 2 shows that over the last few weeks, states representing about 40% of the US population have put reopening of higher-risk activities on hold, and states representing another 40% of the population have tightened restrictions.

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    Specifically, many states have closed bars and closed or tightened restrictions on indoor dining, and several have also banned or limited public gatherings. Some states including Arizona and California went somewhat further, as Exhibit 3 describes, and other states.

    including New Mexico and Pennsylvania added tighter restrictions just last week. Florida, the state that currently has the highest number of daily new cases per capita in the US, has taken only the limited step of closing bars so far.

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    In many states the new mask mandates and the latest round of reopening reversals are only days to weeks old, and it is too early to know how effective these policies will be. Exhibit 4 shows the latest virus figures for several key states. So far the data show a stabilization of daily new cases in Arizona and a very preliminary stabilization at a high level in California, both of which made policy changes 2-3 weeks ago, but a further rise in cases in Florida, which has made fewer changes, and in Texas, which has not yet seen as much benefit as hoped from measures taken 2-3 weeks ago. The estimated effective reproductive rate remains above 1 in all but Arizona. Overall, we see signs of progress as still tentative and incomplete, though the full impact of the latest round of restrictions has not yet been felt.

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    Can the targeted strategy that these states are relying on succeed? While there is strong evidence that these measures work, it is hard to know if they will be sufficient. The left side of Exhibit 5 shows that countries that successfully suppressed the virus took one of two paths. Some, mostly in Asia, used limited measures to confront a limited problem by acting early. Others, mostly in Europe, acted later but used severe lockdowns to confront a severe problem. US states that successfully combatted the first wave of virus outbreaks also took this second path, as shown on the right of Exhibit 5.

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    Some of the states that now have major virus problems are taking a third path, using limited measures to confront severe virus spread, with the hope that better-targeted measures can solve the problem at much lower cost. Coming weeks will reveal how well this works. The lower starting growth rate of virus spread means that more incremental measures might be sufficient to stabilize the situation, though they might also take longer to reduce spread to a rate that justifies resuming steps toward reopening.

    * * *

    Source: Goldman Sachs

  • Houston Police Respond To Suspected Document Burning At Chinese Consulate
    Houston Police Respond To Suspected Document Burning At Chinese Consulate

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 23:11

    The Houston police and fire departments responded Tuesday night to a reported document fire at the Chinese Consulate.

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    Footage from next door shows what appears to be barrels with burning material inside of them:

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    Via Click2Houston:

    Houston police say they began receiving the reports that documents were being burned just after 8 p.m. at 3417 Montrose Boulevard where the Consulate General of China is located.

    Houston fire officials confirmed they are responding to the scene and HPD officials were needed for traffic control in the area.

    A small amount of smoke could be seen and smelled from outside. Dozens of Houston first responders are at the scene.

    Theories are naturally flying:

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  • Ohio House Speaker Arrested In $60M Bribery Scheme Which Added New Fee To Every Electricity Bill In State
    Ohio House Speaker Arrested In $60M Bribery Scheme Which Added New Fee To Every Electricity Bill In State

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 23:05

    A massive corruption scandal being described as the “largest bribery, money-laundering scheme ever perpetrated against the people of the state of Ohio” — to the tune of $60 million, has just rocked the Buckeye state.

    On Tuesday the Republican Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder along with four others were arrested for being allegedly part of a scheme to pass legislation for a billion dollar bailout of two failed Ohio nuclear plants which were on the brink of permanent closure. Householder is widely looked upon as Ohio’s third most powerful and influential lawmaker. 

    Federal agents raided his farm Tuesday morning and made the arrest. The AP has described the top Ohio lawmaker as a “driving force” behind the uphill battle to controversially bail out the state’s two nuclear power plants at a significant expense to taxpayers.

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    Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, via AP

    Householder’s adviser Jeffrey Longstreth was also arrested, as well as lobbyist Neil Clark, and former Ohio Republican Party Chairman Matthew Borges and Juan Cespedes of Columbus-based consulting firm The Oxley Group.

    It appears a classic pay-to-play scandal, but in this case so vast that it is sure to enrage every single Ohioan that pays an electricity bill, considering, according to Axios that—

    “Householder was one of the driving forces behind the nuclear plants’ financial rescue, which added a new fee to every electricity bill in the state and directed over $150 million a year through 2026 to the plants near Cleveland and Toledo.”

    Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has called on Householder to resign immediately given the enormity of the charges against him. The linchpin in the government’s case against the five is incriminating statements made during a sting while meeting with undercover agents

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    An 80-page criminal complain involving a large-scale FBI investigation details the schemers were engaged in an enterprise which shuffled millions into Householder’s pockets to assist in his bid to secure his position as Ohio House speaker.

    In turn he helped push through “House Bill 6, a billion-dollar bailout that saved two failed, Ohio nuclear power plants from closing,” according to the criminal filing.

    Tens of millions were funneled via the “dark money enterprise” over a total of at least three years, from March 2017 to March 2020.

    Given that much money and the significant length of time, it’s clear it must have involved many more players; indeed, the FBI says more arrests are coming as part of the probe.

    The reality is this: Ohioans will not see this as somehow “remote” – given that not only through state taxes, but especially through the “added fee” to each electricity bill as a result of House Bill 6’s passage, they’ll be on the hook for this for years to come.

  • Tom DeMark Sees The S&P Hitting 3,486 Before The Rally Ends
    Tom DeMark Sees The S&P Hitting 3,486 Before The Rally Ends

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 22:45

    In a world where fundamentals no longer matter to the market, there is still some hope that at least the voodoo that is “chart analysis” perhaps works. If so, the best source of forecasting the future by looking at the past is the man who an icon among technicians: Tom DeMark. And with good reason: while it could certainly could have been a lucky guess, in March, DeMark whose D-Wave strategy is a favorite of such trading legends as Steve Cohen, predicted that a market bottom was forming on the day the S&P 500 ended a 34% plunge (although his projection for the index to drop below 2,100 was off, as the bottom – so far – was 2,191.86, and his call for an 11% rally followed by a range trading proved too conservative).

    So what does DeMark think will happen next? According to Bloomberg, the famous technician sees the rally accelerating from here, and according to his D-Wave forecast the S&P will climb to 3,486 – a new all time high – in the next few weeks as the rally that has gripped the tech sector spills over to the broader market. As a reminder, since the end of Q1, all of the market upside has been thanks to just 10 mega-cap stocks. The other 490 stocks in the S&P500 have gone nowhere as shown in the chart below.

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    DeMark’s target is 7% higher from the current levels and would be 100 points above the all-time high reached in February.

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    “The catch-up will be fast,” DeMark told Bloomberg, adding that “it’s going to catch people off guard”, although one look at the overnight moves, DeMark should probably have been talking about gold and silver which are exploding at this moment. 

    As Bloomberg notes, the prediction was based on DeMark’s “countdown” study that involves comparing a security’s closing price to its highest or lowest levels two days earlier. Cycles of “exhaustion” develop when a pattern continues 13 times. The S&P 500 just produced its sixth count Monday and the Nasdaq 100 was on count 12.

    Looking at the recent surge in stocks, DeMark notes that while Monday’s advance was led by tech darlings, Tuesday resumed a recent trend in which investors seek out laggards, a process of widening market participation that to DeMark usually coincides with the final phase of a rally. Last week, in a rare inversion of the trend observed since the March 23 low, the Nasdaq 100 fell for the first time in three weeks while the S&P 500 advanced, bolstered by industrial and commodity shares.

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    DeMark was less optimistic on the Nasdaq which has soared 19% YTD and is hitting daily record highs: “The Nasdaq is going to struggle,” DeMark said. “It may wait for the S&P 500 to record its high” before a meaningful selloff.

    And there you have it: that said, if DeMark is indicative of the other trends that dominate this bizarro, insane “market” the best trade here may be to fade everything the famed technician is recommending and just go long the Nasdaq while shorting everything else. After all, that’s the trade that has become synonymous with central bank takeover of capital markets, and there is nothing that suggests this creeping Sovietization of “markets” will ever end.

  • Will The Cultural Marxists Succeed In Cancelling The Biden-Trump Debates?
    Will The Cultural Marxists Succeed In Cancelling The Biden-Trump Debates?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 22:25

    Authored by Robert Bridge via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Reminiscent of its desire to cancel all uncomfortable discussion on college campuses across the nation, the Democrats are determined to ax a series of scheduled debates between the apparent Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, and the Republican incumbent, Donald Trump. If they succeed, this would be the crowning achievement of the radical left.

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    The Democratic strategy for getting Joe Biden into the White House without ever emerging from his basement bunker is a stroke of evil genius. Here’s how it works: With the unconditional support of the mainstream media, the left has promoted the narrative, constructed on the back of arguably biased opinion polls (herehere and here, for example), that the heir apparent for the Democratic presidential nomination enjoys an insurmountable lead over Trump.

    This allows the Biden camp to argue that it would be more reasonable for their 77-year-old candidate to outright snub the debates, which have been a formal part of the U.S. election process since the 1960 epic showdown between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. Only in the current PC climate, when cancel culture has hijacked rational thought, is it possible to imagine a scenario when the public might be denied the right to weigh the results of a formal clash of ideas between two veteran statesmen, one of whom will go on to lead a nation of over 300 million souls.

    And then there is the manipulation of Covid-19 to make the case that Trump has proven himself to be unfit to hold office due to his handling of the outbreak. Such one-sided articles have become standard fare around the country, as the media never stops reminding the public that the number of Covid cases is on the rise. What the media almost never mentions, however, is that death rates from the virus have been steadily falling – over 75 percent – since its peak in April. Instead, they cynically declare that the positive results are being “weaponized by the right to claim a hollow victory in the face of shameless failure.”

    So what is it? A “hollow victory” or a “shameless failure”? It certainly can’t be both. While the victory against Covid, however temporary, might be seen as “hollow” to the Liberal camp, a victory is still a victory, and should be duly reported as such. But of course nobody should anticipate such candor in a major election season.

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    The next step in the Democratic seek-and-destroy campaign is to portray the ‘Orange man’ as unhinged to the point of not being capable of admitting defeat in the event he should lose in November. In other words, Trump might respond in the same way that the Democrats responded to Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016, i.e. not very sportsmanlike. Or, alternatively, the Biden-Trump showdown will never be resolved because the Republican base will become so demoralized by the poll numbers that Trump will simply toss in the proverbial towel before Election Day. That preposterous, unimaginable notion was posited by none other than Fox News, which is considered to be the last major media company not overtly hostile to Trump.

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    This sort of warped rationale is the same type that led New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman to argue that Biden should not debate Trump until, first, the U.S. president releases his tax returns, and, second, a “real-time fact-checking team” can correct any “misleading statements, phony numbers or outright lies” that either candidate may tell. Perhaps that government ‘ministry of truth’ will operate in much the same manner that Twitter’s internal watchdog monitors user comments. Should the question of mail-in ballots, for example, come up in the debates, we can predict with near certainty how the line judges will call the shot.

    Speaking of mail-in ballots, the Covid-19 pandemic has proven to be yet another blessing without disguise to the Biden campaign (in addition to Russiagate, impeachment and race riots), in that it provides a compelling reason to keep Biden locked in his basement and out of the spotlight, where his gaffe-prone media appearances put to task his suspiciously high poll numbers. It also offers the possibility for states to organize mail-in ballots, which, despite whatever Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey believes, are severely open to the risk of manipulation.

    Finally, the Cultural Marxists, formally known as the Democratic Party, by exaggerating the full extent of the coronavirus, are able to affect Trump’s ability for attracting massive crowds at his political rallies – a charm Biden has never possessed – thus dampening overall enthusiasm for his message.

    All in all, the Cultural Marxists enjoy an array of methods for continuing with their cancel tactics, to the point of possibly cancelling Trump’s ability to prove once and for all Biden’s cognitive abilities, as well as his own presidential qualities. It is an even the American people deserve to witness, yet one that may fall the wayside of cancel culture’s traveling circus.

    Joe Biden and Donald Trump are scheduled to have three debates, the first on Sept. 29 at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Ind., Oct. 15 in Miami, and a final debate on Oct. 22 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn. The vice presidential debate is scheduled for Oct. 7 at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

  • "Bodies Everywhere": 14 Shot In Chicago Funeral Home During Memorial For Shooting Victimg
    “Bodies Everywhere”: 14 Shot In Chicago Funeral Home During Memorial For Shooting Victimg

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 22:10

    While US progressive leaders and the mainstream media hypocritically decided many years ago to avert their eyes from the constant deadly violence in the liberal bastion of Chicago, pretending instead that the daily murders in this “gun free” mecca don’t really happen…

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    … tonight’s events are just too gruesome to be ignore: as CBS Chicago reports,  no less than 14 people have been shot and wounded near a funeral home in the Auburn Gresham community. Ironically, the funeral was a memorial service for a homicide victim.

    “All we saw was just bodies laying everywhere,” witness Arnita Gerder told NBC Chicago.  “Shot up everywhere, all over. Legs, stomach, back, all over the place. We thought it was a war out here.”

    At least 60 shell casings were located at the scene of the shooting.

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    The shooting took place at 79th & Carpenter streets while a funeral service was taking place. “There was some kind of planned ambush outside the funeral home, where a memorial service was going on for a homicide victim,” the report said. 

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    Officials had previously said that 9 people were transported to hospitals from the scene. The fire department confirmed 2 additional victims were found blocks away, near 63rd Street, getting themselves to the hospital.  One woman was reportedly “shot multiple times”. 

    People at the scene said that they were inside the funeral home when the shooting started – some were covered in blood after the incident. 

    CBS 2’s Charlie De Mar spoke to a woman who was part of the funeral and had blood on her jeans; she did not know whose blood it was.

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    De Mar is told some victims walked into hospitals, and officers even took some victims to hospitals.

    One person of interest was being interviewed Tuesday night.

    Some law enforcement personnel in military fatigues were also seen according to CBS 2.

    Crime statistics indicated there were 13 murders last month in the area, compared with just three in June 2019. There were five murders in the area just last week.  For the broader Chicago area, earlier today CPD revealed the following YTD crime stats:

    • 417 murders in 2020 vs. 275 in 2019.
    • 1654 shootings in 2020 vs. 1125 in 2019.
    • 6 murder victims were ages 1-4 in ‘20.

  • Yale Epidemiologist: Hydroxychloroquine Could Save 100,000 Lives If Widely Deployed
    Yale Epidemiologist: Hydroxychloroquine Could Save 100,000 Lives If Widely Deployed

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 21:45

    Yale epidemiology professor Dr. Harvey Risch told Fox News‘s “Ingraham Angle” that he thinks hydroxychloroquine could save 75,000 to 100,000 lives if widely used to treat COVID-19, and that it’s unfortunate that a “propaganda war” has been waged on the commonly prescribed drug which is not based on “medical facts.”

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    “There are many doctors that I’ve gotten hostile remarks about saying that all the evidence is bad for it and, in fact, that is not true at all,” Risch said on Monday, adding that he believes the drug should be used as a prophylactic for front-line healthcare workers, as has been done in India.

    Researchers at the Henry Ford Health System in Southeast Michigan have found that early administration of hydroxychloroquine makes hospitalized patients substantially less likely to die.

    The study, published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, determined that hydroxychloroquine provided a “66 percent hazard ratio reduction,” and hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin a 71 percent reduction, compared with neither treatment.

    In-hospital mortality was 18.1 percent overall; 13.5 percent with just hydroxychloroquine, 22.4 percent with azithromycin alone, and 26.4 percent with neither drug. “Prospective trials are needed” for further review, the researchers note, even as they concluded: “In this multi-hospital assessment, when controlling for COVID-19 risk factors, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with reduction in COVID-19 associated mortality.” –Fox News

    All the evidence is actually good for it when it is used in outpatient uses. Nevertheless, the only people who actually say that are a whole pile of doctors who are on the front lines treating those patients across the country and they are the ones who are at risk being forced not to do it,” Risch added, arguing that the MSM refuses to cover the benefits of the drug, and is actively silencing those trying to address the efficacy of HCQ.

    Imagine how many people have died thanks to the media’s ‘propaganda war.’

    “Our results do differ from some other studies,” said Dr. Marcus Zervos, head of the Henry Ford Health System’s infectious diseases unit. “What we think was important in ours … is that patients were treated early. For hydroxychloroquine to have a benefit, it needs to begin before the patients begin to suffer some of the severe immune reactions that patients can have with COVID.”

  • Twitter Targets QAnon: Nukes 7,000 Accounts, Restricts 150,000 More
    Twitter Targets QAnon: Nukes 7,000 Accounts, Restricts 150,000 More

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 21:25

    Twitter has decided the latest threat to society are QAnon followers – with the social media giant banning 7,000 accounts and limiting the reach of 150,000 more in a widespread crackdown against people who believe President Trump is part of a plan to take down the Deep State.

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    According to NBC News, the 7,000 QAnon account bans were in response to “breaking its rules on targeted harassment,” while the 150,000 other accounts will no longer appear in ‘recommended follows,’ nor will any of their content be included in ‘trends’ and search.

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    NBC News‘ Ben Collins and Brandy Zadrozny point to the recent harassment of “TV personality and author Chrissy Teigen,” who deleted 60,000 tweets after her history of sexualizing children, frequent pizza references, and an unsupported rumor that she flew on Jeffrey Epstein’s ‘lolita express’ resulted in QAnon followers and others suggesting she’s a pedophile.

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    While her strange tweets were real, evidence that she flew on Epstein’s infamous pedo plane appears to have been fabricated. While several articles have been written about QAnon followers harassing Teigen over the Epstein connection, somehow they glossed over her tweets about children.

    This type of harassment campaign is known as “swarming” or “brigading,” and Twitter said those swarms will no longer be allowed on the platform. Twitter will ban users who threaten users during QAnon-related swarms, and limit the reach and search visibility of those who participate in them.

    A Twitter spokesperson said this sort of anti-harassment policy could apply to other groups that are primarily motivated by targeted harassment in the future. –NBC News

    So, given the recent media attention we’re guessing Teigen’s ‘targeted harassment’ is what prompted Twitter’s QAnon crackdown – a move which might backfire and make people more inclined to follow the movement, according to journalist Paul Joseph Watson.

    What is QAnon?

    According to Deborah Franklin via AmericanThinker.com:

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    Q and the ever-growing worldwide movement it’s inspired have been the objects of fascination, mockery and hatred, but of surprisingly little serious analysis.

    Q first appeared in October 2017 on an anonymous online forum called 4Chan, posting messages that implied top-clearance knowledge of upcoming events. More than 3,000 messages later, Q has created a disturbing, multi-faceted portrait of a global crime syndicate that operates with impunity. Q’s followers in the QAnon community faithfully analyze every detail of Q’s drops, which are compiled here and here.

    The mainstream media has published hundreds of articles attacking Q as an insane rightwing conspiracy, particularly after President Trump seemed to publicly confirm his connection to it.  At a North Carolina rally in 2019, Trump made a point of drawing attention to a baby wearing a onesie with a big Q.

    In recent weeks, the tempo of Trump’s spotlighting of Q has accelerated, with the President retweeting Q followers twenty times in one day. Trump has featured Q fans in his ads and deployed one of Q’s signature phrases (“These people are sick”) at his rallies. The President’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, has also retweeted Q followers.

    Q has noted that the media never asks Trump the obvious question: What do you think of Q? To Q followers, the reason they don’t ask is obvious. They’re afraid of the answer.

    In the meantime, Q’s influence continues to spread. Protestors in Hong Kong, Iran, and France have held up Q signs and chanted Q quotes. Q’s revelations are uniting people all over the world who want freedom.

    If you’re unfamiliar with Q or only know it through the media’s attacks, I’d like to provide a brief introduction to this extraordinary phenomenon. I’ve followed Q since the first drop, and I’ve grown increasingly impressed by the accuracy, breadth and depth of Q’s messages. Q followers were prepared long in advance for the easing of hostilities with North Korea, the deflation of the mullahs of Iran, and the discovery of Ukraine as a hotbed of corruption for American politicians. They knew a great deal about Jeffrey Epstein’s activities before the public did and anticipate even more shocking revelations to come. As Q likes to say, “Future proves past.” As Q’s predictions come true, they lend retroactive credibility to the entire enterprise.

    Q’s followers believe that Q is a military intelligence operation, the first of its kind, whose goal is to provide the public with secret information. Many Q followers think the Q team was founded by Admiral Michael Rogers, the former Director of the National Security Agency and former Commander of US Cyber Command.  Some suspect that Dan Scavino, White House Director of Social Media, is part of the team, because the high quality of Q’s writing has the luster of a communications expert.

    Q is a new weapon in the game of information warfare, bypassing a hostile media and corrupt government to communicate directly with the public. Think of Q as a companion to Trump’s twitter. Whereas Trump communicates bluntly and directly, Q is cryptic, sly and subtle, offering only clues that beg for context and connection.

    Here’s the way it works: Q posts messages (also known as “drops” or “crumbs”) on an anonymous online forum, which are discussed, analyzed, and critiqued by the board’s inhabitants. (The forum has changed a few times after massive online attacks.) Hundreds of social media accounts then spread Q’s latest posting to worldwide followers who share their research, analysis, and interpretations of Q’s latest information.

    I’ve compiled a list of Q’s most famous catch phrases and tried to put them into context.

    The Great Awakening: We’re living in a unique time in which ordinary citizens around the world are collaborating to understand and expose the corrupt system that rules us. The system thrives on deception, and the overwhelming task of The Great Awakening is to penetrate its lies and reveal the truth.

    • The first phase of The Great Awakening is heightened awareness of the Deep State – the interlocking governmental entities that operate outside the law to expand their own power. Elections and popular opinion don’t impact the ability of the Deep State to enforce its agenda.

    • The second phase of The Great Awakening investigates the Deep State’s alliance with other powerful sectors: the media, Hollywood, charities and non-profits, public schools and universities, religious organizations, medical, scientific and financial institutions, and multinational corporations. This phase can be painful, as you discover that “those you trust the most” (in Q’s phrase) are deceiving you. Beloved celebrities, religious leaders, doctors, educators, innovators, and do-gooders are all in on the hoax.

    • The third phase of The Great Awakening is perhaps the most painful of all. The people who rule us are not merely amoral creatures who view us as collateral damage in their drive for money and power. It’s scarier than that. The potentates we serve are actively trying to harm us. That’s their goal. We’re under coordinated attack.

    Dark To Light: Q tells us that what our rulers fear the most is exposure. Bringing their crimes out of protected darkness into the light of public scrutiny destroys their power to deceive. And as their power fades, the darkness of our divided, violent world will yield to the light of freedom, cooperation, and peace.

    Where We Go One We Go All (WWG1WGA): Q’s most famous phrase expresses the worldwide egalitarian nature of the movement.  Every country is suffering from the system’s oppression, and the whole world will benefit from a rebirth of freedom. In this unique movement, anonymous citizens work in collaboration with the highest-ranking military leaders and the president, and everyone’s contributions are valued. When commenters on the board have thanked Q for his service, Q has replied that no one is above and no one is below. “We work for you.”

    These people are sick. Perhaps the most difficult aspect of The Great Awakening is coming to terms with the depravity of our rulers, whom Q has called The Cult. Jeffrey Epstein’s story has helped to awaken people to some of the elite’s crimes. The mysterious temple on Epstein’s island hints at possible future revelations that are frightening in their scope. Q followers believe that The Cult engages in ritual practices that enshrine the shedding of blood and which prey on the innocence of children. The sickness in their souls thrives on brutality, war, and terror. These disclosures will be tough for the public to take.

    Trust the plan. The presumed military leaders who created Q and who protected Trump throughout the election and presidency have created a precise path to victory. Despite the seeming chaos of daily events, a steady progression of victories is taking place. The plan includes offensive maneuvers against the Cult’s financial power, legal standing, human supply chains, and military capacity. And, of crucial importance, the plan attacks the Cult’s ability to control the narrative that shapes what the public believes. In this high-stakes game of information warfare, Q plays a vital role by empowering ordinary citizens (like me) to spread the truth.

    They want you divided. The hatred that’s growing between races, classes, age groups, religions, and political parties is purposely fomented by the Cult. The more we’re divided and focused on attacking each other, the weaker we become. Q urges us to stay together and to fight the Cult, not each other.

    They think you’re sheep. The Cult believes, as Q says, “you’ll follow the stars” – the celebrities in media, Hollywood, and academia who tell you, in coordinated fashion, what you’re supposed to think. Their contempt for you makes them confident they can control you and ensure your surrender to any agenda. Q, on the other hand, offers only clues and can only be understood by high-grade critical thinking, spurred by constant crowd-sourced criticism and reassessment. The essence of the Q movement is to think for yourself.

    Bigger than you can imagine. Expand your thinking. Q encourages us to reevaluate everything we think we know.  The Cult may date back to ancient times, and through its powerful families, it might have manipulated historical events in ways that we haven’t suspected. The Cult may also possess advanced technology and medical cures that have not been released to the public. One aspect that may be “bigger than you can imagine” is the unfathomable scale of theft from our national coffers, as funds for foreign aid and wars wind up in the Cult’s pockets.

    Track resignations. Beneath the surface, a broad and deep cleansing of corrupt players is taking place. Q asked us to track resignations to understand the scope of activity. (Here’s a website that took him up on his request: www.resignation.info) Resignations, retirements, and unexpected deaths from major players in politics, media, charities, and corporations all point to possible deals being made quietly without the public fanfare of arrests. For me, a notable resignation is Eric Schmidt’s abrupt exit from Google, which received little media attention. Schmidt resigned on December 21st, 2017, the same day that President Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency related to “serious human rights abuse and corruption around the world.” Further context for Schmidt’s resignation may be inferred from this photo of him in North Korea, apparently in an advisory role. Standing next to him is Bill Richardson, former Governor of New Mexico, the state in which Epstein had a secret ranch. Richardson has been accused by one of Epstein’s victims.

    Their need for symbols will be their downfall.  The Cult uses certain symbols over and over again, which may serve some ritualistic need, but makes them vulnerable to detection. Q followers are familiar with Y-shaped horns that mimic those of the goat deity Baphomet, owls, pyramids, one eye encased within a pyramid, red shoes, bandaged fingers, and other repeating symbols, including the mysterious black eye that afflicts so many famous people. The Q Army also knows the coded pedophile symbols listed by the FBI. When Q drew attention to the design of Epstein’s temple, alert Q followers noticed how similar it is to the set design of a famous talk show. And the red ring on the hand of dead terrorist Qassam Soleimani prompted Q followers to compile images of similar rings on the hands of powerful people.  An excellent source for understanding how these symbols are incorporated into pop culture targeting the young through music videos, TV shows and movies can be found at vigilantcitizen.com.

    Nothing can stop what is coming. Nothing. Now comes the pain.  The headlines on any given day may sound discouraging for those who want justice to prevail. But these setbacks are temporary, as a juggernaut of justice heads our way. As Q likes to say: We have it all. Massive amounts of irrefutable evidence await the criminals who try to evade their reckoning in court. For those who worry about Trump’s ability to overcome impeachment, election fraud, and assassination attempts, Q assures us: Patriots in control. And no legal tricks can help the criminals escape the ultimate judgment of public disgust.  Q promises us that the day is coming when they can’t walk down the street.

    You are the news now.  The “fake news” decried by President Trump is losing credibility and audience by the day. Q has exposed the 4 A.M. drops that provide the daily talking points to media personnel, so they can all parrot the same propaganda. Q has also named various journalists whom he says take bribes. The media is concentrated within six powerful companies; on the other hand, the Q army is vast, voluntary, and anonymous. Q assures us that our efforts to disseminate the truth through social media and conversations with family and friends are having a huge impact. We are the news now.

    We know what happens in the end. God wins. Many times, Q has asked us to pray. He’s quoted the famous Biblical lines of Ephesians 6:12, “For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.” We’re living through monumental times. It’s comforting that Q believes that if we work together, God wins.

    *  *  *

    A follow-up can be read here.

    * *  *

    Will Twitter’s recent crackdowns eventually drive people off the platform?

  • Fed Policy Simplified: Lower, Longer, And ZIRP Until Something (Or Everything) Breaks
    Fed Policy Simplified: Lower, Longer, And ZIRP Until Something (Or Everything) Breaks

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 21:05

    Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

    The current interest rate cycle began in August of 2019 when the Fed cut rates from a cycle high of 2.4% to 2.1%.  The Fed was then fighting the “repo-crisis” in which the Fed was incapable of setting interest rates…and gasp…free-market based interest rates were the result.  And, shocker, they were not “lower for longer”.  So, just thought put interest rate cycles in perspective and detail why I anticipate this will be the longest and lowest interest rate cycle with likely zero recovery of those rate cuts.

    To begin, the chart below shows interest rate cycles from 1981 through 2020 (and likely through 2040)…and note they grow progressively longer, starting and ending lower, and with less interest rate recovery.  Based on this pattern and the macro’s driving this, this current cycle is likely to be decades at zero (or more likely moving to NIRP) with no rate hikes.

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    To gauge the changing dynamics of the interest rate cycles, the chart below details the DEPTH of the cut (the percentage from starting rate to cycle low rate), the DURATION (the number of months from initial rate cut to initial rate cut of the next cycle), and the RECOVERY (how much rates are hiked in the hiking phase from the cycle low rate).  Again, the depth of cuts moves progressively greater (essentially 100% for last two cycles), duration stretching from less than a year to over a decade, and recovery moving from outright rate hikes to less than 50% recovery of previous cuts.  Again, this the current cycle, we already have 100% cuts and I anticipate something on the order of twenty years of zero rates meaning zero recovery.

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    To put this into perspective, below I show the change per interest rate cycle in full time employees, working age population (15 to 64 year-olds), and federal debt.  Obviously, the cycles are of differing years, but still note the symmetry in the inverse relationships of rising interest rates/minimal debt during periods of high working age population growth…and falling rates to allow reliance on debt during minimal working age population growth.  In just eleven months of the current interest rate cycle, federal debt has already risen by $4.4 trillion (more than any entire cycle prior to ’07) while working age population is declining (not due to Covid-19 but decades of negative fertility coupled with fast declining immigration since 2008, essentially hitting zero in 2020).  The ZIRP policy coupled with minimal working age population growth (resulting in minimal to no jobs growth over this cycle) will mean a blow-out of federal debt unlike anything nations outside of Zimbabwe or Venezuela have ever seen.

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    To quantify the situation, the chart below shows the parabolic rise in the growth in federal debt per the net growth per full time employee.  I anticipate this current period will see something like a ten fold increase in the growth of federal debt per full time job net gained as debt soars and the US struggles to simply re-employ those who have lost their positions.

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    Usually I’d wrap it up by showing the change per interest rate cycle…but it’s late and you don’t pay me enuf to get that kind of service…so, below are the changes per presidential term since Reagan took office in January of 1981 (under Trump, I assume by inauguration day, January 2021 federal debt will be sitting at $28.2 T, GDP of $20.6 T, Fed BS of $7.8 T).  And I assume all three of the trend arrows below will be continuing their path regardless a Trump or Biden victory.

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    Invest accordingly.

    Bonus Chart – Demographic driven interest rates incenting ever more debt / asset inflation, supported by unlimited Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion. 

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    Regardless Trump or Biden, MMT and basic universal income are here to stay…unless somebody notices we’re broke, the markets are a farce, the dollar is garbage, and debt in a depopulationary/deflationary/depressionary world is toxic!?!

  • US Blacklists 11 Chinese Firms For Uighur Forced Labor, DNA & Human Hair Collection
    US Blacklists 11 Chinese Firms For Uighur Forced Labor, DNA & Human Hair Collection

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 20:45

    Washington has its sights set on China’s long-rumored ethnic cleansing of the Muslim minority Uighur population amid the continued Trump administration sanctions pile on.

    Early this week the US Commerce Department added eleven Chinese companies to its economic black list, citing human rights violations in the Uighur-dominant region of western Xinjiang.

    Specifically the ban on US companies doing business with the eleven Chinese firms arises from allegations they are using Chinese Muslims in forced labor situations.

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    The announcement of the new economic blacklist followed a weekend New York Times report which detailed Uighurs being used as essentially slave labor to make Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) amid the coronavirus pandemic. 

    The Times report detailed that “several Chinese companies are using Uighur labor from a contentious government program to produce P.P.E. during the pandemic.”

    Some of the equipment even made it to the United States, as well as other buyers around the globe.

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    Recent Reuters photo of what China’s government calls a “vocational skills education center” in Dabancheng in Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, via FOX/Reuters.

    In addition to widespread allegations of forced labor, in some instanced Uighurs are being allegedly used as unwilling human subjects in genetic research, as Reuters reports:

    Among them are numerous textile companies and two firms the government said were conducting genetic analyses used to further the repression of Uighurs and other Muslim minorities.

    It was the third group of companies and institutions in China added to the U.S. blacklist, after two rounds in which the Trump administration cited 37 entities it said were involved in China’s repression in Xinjiang.

    “Beijing actively promotes the reprehensible practice of forced labor and abusive DNA collection and analysis schemes to repress its citizens,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement.

    In another ghastly example, one company is said to be mass collecting human hair from Uighur prisoners to use in wig products:

    Also on the banned roster is Hetian Haolin Hair Accessories Co. On May 1, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said it was halting imports of the company’s hair products, citing evidence of forced labor.

    On July 1, CBP seized in Newark a shipment of almost 13 tons of hair products worth over $800,000 with human hair that it said originated in Xinjiang.

    The NYT story was released just as newly resurfaced footage allegedly showing bound and blindfolded Chinese Muslims being loaded onto train cars went viral.

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    China’s foreign ministry rejected the allegations and urged the US to “correct its mistakes” alongside similar calls to the UK, which is increasingly lockstep in waging a pressure campaign against Beijing. 

  • US Suffers Biggest Jump In COVID-19 Deaths Since May 29: Live Updates
    US Suffers Biggest Jump In COVID-19 Deaths Since May 29: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 20:36

    Summary:

    • US suffers biggest daily death toll since May 29
    • Texas deaths increase by 131
    • California reports another 9,231 cases
    • Americas saw 900k+ new cases last week
    • Vermont lowest case count in the country
    • Arizona hospitalizations fall for 4th day
    • Fla daily cases below 10k for first time in a week
    • Florida suffers another 134 deaths, ICU capacity hits 130%
    • Victoria reports 374 new cases
    • Russia reports just 5,842 new cases
    • Beijing requires all foreign travelers to show negative COVID-19 test results
    • India’s Delhi region confirms fewest new cases in 6 weeks
    • US reports roughly 62k new cases yesterday
    • Iran suffers record death toll
    • The EU has reportedly reached a deal on rescue fund

    * * *

    Update (2000ET): For the first time since May 29, the US suffered more than 1,000 deaths in a single day yesterday, according to the COVID-19 Tracking Project.

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    While deaths haven’t surged to new highs like daily cases, just the fact that we’re now seeing more than 1,000 deaths a day is enough to validate the doomsayers.

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    While the trend in the South is still not very encouraging, the Midwest is showing some promising progress.

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    Arizona is suffering more deaths even as new cases and hospitalizations decline. In Georgia, a surge in new deaths has intensified anxieties as Gov Kemp is embroiled in a legal battle with the Mayor of Atlanta over mandatory mask orders.

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    Nevada, Oregon and Tennessee also reported their highest daily death tolls yet, per the NYT. We won’t know the final tally until tomorrow, but it’s doubtful Tuesday’s tally will overtake the 2,752 deaths reported on April 15, which remains the single-day record for the US.

    While the decline in hospitalizations is certainly encouraging, the surge in deaths might be enough to push California and other states back into full-on lockdowns.

    * * *

    Update (1655ET): Texas reported its latest numbers, with 9,305 new cases, and 131 new deaths, according to the latest numbers from the state’s department of health

    * * *

    Update (1415ET): California just reported another 9,231 new cases, compared with 6,846 yesterday, bringing the statewide total to 400,769 COVID-19 cases.

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    And the state’s biggest hot spot remains: LA.

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    Update (1324ET): Almost 900,000 new cases and nearly 22,000 deaths were reported last week in the Americas, with Brazil, Mexico and the US reporting most of the new cases and deaths.

    That;s according to data from the Pan American Health Organization and Dr. Carissa Etienne, its director, who routinely shares her analysis with reporters.

    “The Covid-19 pandemic is showing no signs of slowing down in our region,” Etienne said. The region has reported 7.7 million cases and more than 311,000 deaths since July 20. .

    * * *

    Update (1300ET): Vermont Gov. Phil Scott reported today that Vermont now has the lowest coronavirus case count in the country, surpassing even Hawaii, which defied early fears about vulnerability to the virus and ended up seeing almost no cases.

    Gov Scott said Vermont’s positivity rate is among the lowest – if not the lowest – in the country. The state has seen almost no hospitalizations.

    The state’s most recent COVID-19 linked death occurred on June 16, more than 30 days ago.

    The state has confirmed only 1,366 cases.

    * * *

    Update (1120ET): Arizona reported another 3,500 new cases on Tuesday (numbers are reported with a 24 hour delay), bringing its total to 148,683.The state reported 134 additional deaths on Tuesday morning. The fatalities included 77 older deaths added to the rolls, and 57 newly reported deaths.

    They brought the state’s totals to 148,683 COVID-19 cases and 2,918 deaths.

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    Hospitals and ICU units have seen the number of occupied beds fall. Arizona’s 7-day average for new cases has been under 3,100 for the past four days after peaking at 3,844 on July 6.

    The positive rate for last week has fallen to 16%, which is higher than health officials would like but still the lowest level in more than a month.

    The number of Arizona’s confirmed or suspected COVID-19 inpatients decreased Monday to 3,041, the lowest level since July 2, declining for the 4th consecutive day.

    * * *

    Update (1034ET): A House Energy and Commerce subcommittee focused on investigations is holding a hearing with the CEOs of five pharmaceutical companies about the race to find a vaccine.

    Meanwhile, Florida just reported its latest COVID-19 daily numbers. New cases came to 9,373 (+2.6%), which is below the 7-day average of +3.5%. Another 134 deaths were reported across the state, which is the second-largest daily death toll yet. Notably, it marked the first time in a week that Florida saw fewer than 10k new cases in a day.

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    The new cases brought Florida’s total to 369,834. Hospitalizations declined by 11 on Tuesday, falling to 9,443. Though in Miami-Dade, ICU capacity continued to climb, hitting 130.2%, roughly even with yesterday’s total.

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    With 77,160 tests run, the percentage positive is 13.62%, the latest sign that the number of new cases has peaked, even though the 7-day average for deaths has climbed to a new record.

    * * *

    As we begin our COVID-19 news rundown for Tuesday, the Australian state of Victoria reported 374 new cases of coronavirus and three deaths on Tuesday as mask wearing will become mandatory in the state, a large swath of which (the city of Melbourne) is already under lockdown.

    Yesterday, BBG reported that many Russian elites have  been injected with an experimental COVID-19 vaccine as early as April, a story that, if accurate, would appear to undermine the UK’s claims that Russia-backed hackers stole British vaccine research.

    On Tuesday, Russia reported 5,842 new cases of the novel coronavirus, pushing its total infection tally to 783,328, still the fourth largest tally in the world, although the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 countries – the US, Brazil and India – are pulling further and further ahead.

    Russia’s coronavirus response center said 153 people had died in the past 24 hours, pushing Russia’s death toll to 12,580.

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    In the first sign that India’s outbreak may have finally peaked after the country reported a record 40k+ new cases in  one day, the Indian Union territory of Delhi has registered fewer than 1,000 new cases in a day for the first time in 6 weeks. The chief minister of the region reported Monday night that the region reported just 954 cases the prior day.

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    Though markets seesawed briefly after the news was released, the Lancet’s publication of the results from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine candidate’s Phase 1/2 trial predictably sent stocks ripping higher.

    In China, after moving to reopen international air travel more quickly than the US had anticipated, officials imposed new rules on Tuesday for foreign passengers arriving in the country: All will now be required to provide negative COVID-19 test results before they board any China-bound flights. The tests must be from 5 days before the flight, the Civil Aviation Administration of China said in a statement.

    Beijing has also announced plans to provide free COVID-19 tests to residents of Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang which is experiencing an outbreak.

    The EU has reportedly managed to reach a deal to boost the bloc’s post-pandemic economies after Charles Michel, president of the European Council and chair of the summit, offered compromises over the €750 billion ($860 billion) recovery fund that will be the first fiscal vehicle jointly funded by the EU27 members. The “Frugal Four” have apparently shown a willingness to accept the following adjustments: Outright non-repayable grants will account for just €390 billion ($446 billion) compared with the €500 billion originally proposed. Disbursements will also be linked to governments observing the rule of law.

    Around the world, more than 14.7 million people have been diagnosed with the virus. Nearly 610,000 of these have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The US has recorded nearly 141,000 deaths, the most in the world.

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    Worldometer counter roughly 62,000 new cases in the US reported yesterday, as the daily totals continue to slow.

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    In Japan, five new novel coronavirus patients have been identified at US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on Okinawa.

    In Iran, public health authorities have recorded yet another record death toll with 229 deaths from the new coronavirus in the past 24 hours, health ministry figures showed. Iran, the Middle East country hardest hit by the pandemic, started relaxing its lockdown back in April.

  • Smithsonian Institution Explains That 'Rationality' & 'Hard Work' Are Racist
    Smithsonian Institution Explains That ‘Rationality’ & ‘Hard Work’ Are Racist

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 20:25

    Submitted by Frederick Hess and RJ Martin, via Real Clear

    In the wake of the police killing of George Floyd and subsequent protests over police brutality, interest in “anti-racist” education has exploded among educators and advocates. The case that educators should seek to combat racism seems self-evident. What’s less clear is how the admirable cause of “anti-racism” is fueling, in some corners, the inclination to denounce universal virtues and useful skills as the product of “white culture.”

    Witness last week’s contretemps at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of African American History and Culture. The museum, which bills itself as “the only national museum devoted exclusively” to educating the public on these topics, recently debuted the online guide “Talking about Race.” The guide included a chart cataloguing the “aspects and assumptions” of “white culture” that “have been normalized over time and are now considered standard practices in the United States.”

    What are these sinister aspects of “white culture,” you ask? Well, according to the Smithsonian, values like “hard work,” “self-reliance,” “be[ing] polite,” and timeliness are all a product of the “white dominant culture.” Indeed, it turns out that conventional grammar, Christianity, the notion that “intent counts” in courts of law, and the scientific method and its emphasis on “objective, rational linear thinking” are all proprietary to “white culture.”

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    There are several things that might be said about all this. But the place to start may be by observing just how insidious it is to teach black children to reject intellectual and personal traits that promote personal and civic success — in the U.S. or anywhere else. After all, in what land are students well-served when they’re encouraged not to work hard, make decisions, think rationally, or be polite and on time? Among the extraordinarily accomplished people honored by the museum, those such as Frederick Douglass; Harriet Tubman; Jackie Robinson; Martin Luther King, Jr.; Toni Morrison; John Lewis; Oprah Winfrey; Michael Jordan; Condoleezza Rice; and Barack Obama might be surprised to learn that hard work and rational thinking are somehow alien to black culture.

    A 2020 National Association of Colleges and Employers poll found that four in five employers expected job applicants to exhibit a strong work ethic, the ability to work in a team, and analytical thinking skills. If one asks parents — of any race — what values they want their kids to learn, more than four out of five will similarly name concepts like “hard work,” “being well-mannered,” and “being responsible.” In fact, black parents are one to three percent more likely than white parents to think traits like “hard work,” “being well-mannered,” and “persistence” are “important to teach children.”

    This all makes obvious sense. These are the traits that make for good neighbors and colleagues, and support strong communities. Perhaps we’ve blinkered vision, but we’re still looking for the culture, anywhere, where parents say that they’d like their children to slack off, be rude, and shirk responsibility.

    After an online outcry, the Smithsonian removed the chart on Thursday night — but not with any denunciation of the chart’s content, only the bland understatement that the chart turned out to “not contribute to the productive discussion” they had wished for. Of course, the lack of “productive discussion” shouldn’t have surprised, given the shoddy scholarship it reflected. The original chart contained a single footnote linking to a one-page PDF asserting, sans evidence, that traits such as “hard work,” “self-reliance,” and politeness “are common characteristics of most U.S. White people most of the time.”

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    Not surprisingly given this foundation, the Smithsonian’s chart was rife with dubious claims and questionable assumptions. The idea that Christianity belongs to white culture could come as a surprise to the 72 percent of black Americans who identify as Christian, especially when only 65 percent of white Americans do so. The idea that timeliness and objectivity are the province of white culture would probably come as a surprise to air traffic controllers or cardiovascular surgeons in Cambodia and Cameroon, as it turns out that these traits are crucial to their professional competence and success — whatever the practitioner’s race or culture.  

    While it might be tempting to laugh off the Smithsonian’s chart as political correctness run amok, that would be a mistake. The troubling conviction that admirable, useful, universal values like hard work and politeness are somehow the product of “white supremacy” has been gaining increasing currency in education circles. Just this month, the influential KIPP charter network announced it was abolishing its motto “Work Hard. Be Nice.” as part of its push to “dismantle systemic racism.” As educators rush to act upon the admirable impulse captured by “anti-racism,” the lesson is that they need to be extraordinarily deliberate about what that means in practice.

    When all is said and done, in 2020, the Smithsonian’s caretakers chose to tell our children that values like hard work and rationality are part of the “white” inheritance—and don’t come naturally to those raised in other cultures. If this demeaning caricature was offered up by drawling good ol’ boys defending Jim Crow in some grainy newsreel footage, we’d spot it for the unapologetic racism that it is. The question of the hour, though, is what we call it when educators offer it up in the name of “anti-racism.”

  • Gold Joins Silver In Surge Higher As Asian Markets Open
    Gold Joins Silver In Surge Higher As Asian Markets Open

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 20:19

    Update (2100ET): Japan’s open appeared to trigger silver’s surge tonight and China’s open sent gold futures lurching higher…

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    What is the message about the USDollar from the precious metals market relative to its worth versus fiat…

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    We wonder what happens when the barbarous relic really breaks out…

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    After two strong days, silver is not stopping its charge as futures smash above $22 for the first time since October 2013…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Up over 90% from its March 2020 lows…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    As Peter Schiff notes, silver’s current run follows on the heels of its best quarter since 2010.

    Safe-haven demand is driving silver prices higher, along with supply concerns. There are also expectations of increasing industrial demand, particularly in the solar energy sector.  Even if the global economy is slow to recover, silver may get a boost from government stimulus as various programs funnel money into “green energy” projects.

    “Silver-intensive areas such as 5G and solar technology could well benefit from any fiscal impulse,” BMO analysts said in a research note cited by Bloomberg.

    “More than $50 billion of green stimulus has been approved by governments thus far this year, over which roughly three-quarters has been in Europe. But perhaps more impactful has been the recent Biden campaign Clean Energy plan, most notably a zero-carbon power grid by 2035 which would see new wind and solar capacity built to displace thermal generation.”

    While silver is much more sensitive to industrial demand than gold, at its core, silver is a monetary metal and it tends to track with gold over time. The white metal should continue to benefit from the inflationary pressure of government money-printing and stimulus programs. A Morgan Stanley note quoted by Bloomberg said, “Silver will continue to be pulled higher by the strong gold price and supportive financial conditions.”

    Additionally, global central bank money-printing is starting to drive more investors to question their ‘forever’ faith in fiat, and as Deutsche’s Jim Reid notes, The Fed for one, has a lot more room to run…

    Some believe this is already a huge amount, but as the second graph shows, the Fed’s balance sheet as a % of GDP is notably lower than the ECB and BoJ’s. If they were aligned, the Fed balance sheet would now be around $11tn and $25tn, respectively.With

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    DB’s Matt Luzzetti expecting that US debt to GDP will be above 100% in 2020 and near 140% by 2030 from just shy of 80% at the start of this year, it seems inconceivable to me that the Fed and other central bank balance sheets will do anything other than explode over the next decade and perhaps beyond.

    Historically, silver tends to outperform gold in a gold bull market, and we’re seeing that dynamic play out in the midst of gold’s current run up. The yellow metal is fast-approaching its all-time high in dollars.  But silver futures have climbed more than 40% since the end of the first quarter, surpassing the 14% gain for gold futures during that same period.

    Silver coin and bar sales have also helped drive investment demand for silver. Retail bullion coin sales jumped by an estimated 60% year-on-year. Strong demand led to shortages of many silver bullion products, resulting in extended delivery time and higher premiums.

    Meanwhile, silver mine output was already trending downward and it has been further squeezed by mine shutdowns due to COVID-19. Analysts at the Silver Institute say they expect mine supply to continue its four-year slide this year. Even with most mines back online, the institute projects a 7% decline in mine output in 2020. Global mine production fell by 1.3% in 2019.

    The gold-to-silver plunged to 81x tonight, breaking its recent multi-year uptrend…

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    …but that is still high by historical standards…

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    That tells us silver remains undervalued compared to gold. In the modern era, the silver-gold ratio has historically been around 50 to 60-1. At some point, the ratio will likely return closer to its historical norm. Given the economic dynamics, it seems far more likely silver will climb to close the gap rather than the price of gold dropping.

  • US Joins India In Large Naval Drills On Heels Of Last Month's Deadly Border Clash With China
    US Joins India In Large Naval Drills On Heels Of Last Month’s Deadly Border Clash With China

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 20:05

    Following last month’s rare border clashes between the Indian and Chinese armies along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh which led to an unprecedented scores of casualties on both sides (at least 20 Indian troops were confirmed killed), the United States has joined India’s military in conducting large-scale naval exercises in the region

    Specifically the US aircraft carrier Nimitz carrier strike group carried out the joint drills in the Indian Ocean in what reports describe as “a sign of growing cooperation between the two naval forces in the region” as well as in support of “a free and open Indo-Pacific”.

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    Regional US navy drills with allies in years past, file image: Planet Pix/Zuma Press via WSJ.

    “While operating together, the US and Indian naval forces conducted high-end exercises designed to maximize training and interoperability, including air defence,” the US navy said in a statement. 

    “Naval engagements such as these exercises improve the cooperation of U.S. and Indian maritime forces and contribute to both sides’ ability to counter threats at sea, from piracy to violent extremism,” it added.

    It’s as yet unclear how long the ongoing joint drills will last, but it’s a clear message to Beijing after soaring tensions in the region. The USS Ronald Reagan is also in the area of the South China Sea, but is currently conducting separate ‘freedom of navigation’ related missions.

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    Nimitz carrier, US Navy file image

    The US side includes the carrier USS Nimitz, the guided-missile cruiser USS Princeton, and guided-missile destroyers USS Sterett and USS Ralph Johnson, according to military publications. The Indian Navy has the destroyer Rana, the frigates Sahyadri and Shivalik, as well as the anti-submarine corvette Kamorta participating.

    Reuters notes of the location: “The drills were carried out near India’s Andaman and Nicobar islands which sits near the Melaka Straits, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes for trade and fuel, an Indian source said.”

  • A Nation Falling Apart
    A Nation Falling Apart

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 19:45

    Authored by Philip Giraldi,

    First they came for the toilet paper and kitchen towels, then they came for flour and now they are taking your coins. Yes, the American public sitting out the COVID-19 virus is now having to deal with what is referred as a “small change shortage.”caused apparently by hoarding. Coffee shops and other retail outlets that deal in cash have been hit hard by the shortage, finding themselves unable to make change. Apparently, people have decided spontaneously and in large numbers that nickels, dimes and quarters, as they have value as being made of metal, will somehow maintain their worth better than the pieces of paper being printed in Washington.

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    The government has acted decisively to meet the threat by having the Federal Reserve convene a 22 strong U.S. Coin Task Force to “mitigate the effects of low coin inventories caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.” Ironically, of course, the Fed is the source of America’s long suffering backed-by-nothing currency. As several of the major private banks, including JP Morgan and Bank of America, are represented on the Task Force as well as a swarm of government bureaucrats, one can assume that nothing will happen except possibly a decision to change the design of the coins to eliminate Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln. Sacagawea can stay on the funny looking dollar coin, which no one has actually seen in years as she represents an approved ethnic minority.

    There are a lot of indications that the American stratocruiser is about to crash. My wife and I went to a local gun range last week for a refresher course. I knew how to shoot from my time in the Army and CIA but have not actually fired a weapon since 1978 and my wife learned how to use a handgun about fifteen years ago when we made the decision to have one available in the house “just in case.” To be sure, the current situation with deranged radical groups unrestrained by feckless politicians and a complicit media, our decision to re-arm as it were was based on the assumption that we can no longer rely on a demoralized and passive police force to protect either us or our property, particularly if there are any racial overtones to who is doing what to whom. So, we might have to be prepared to defend ourselves.

    The first thing we learned was that it was hard to get an appointment with a trainer at a licensed range. It took us weeks to make an appointment and we only got one when there was a cancellation. It seems large numbers of ordinary Americans are looking to defend themselves because they, like us, are shocked when they see politicians ignore looting, beatings and arson even as they kneel before thugs. Meanwhile, the media endorses the process, also throwing in a blanket condemnation of the white race, which suggests that there is nothing good that will come out the other end of what it taking place.

    We did our shooting training but the next hurdle was upgrading our weapons. We had a venerable 9mm automatic and an even older 38 caliber revolver. Modern handguns have better safety features and their mechanisms work more smoothly for ageing hands. We were looking for a new 9mm automatic and an AR-15 so-called assault rifle for greater reach if that should become necessary but the man at the sales desk shook his head and said “No, everything is back ordered for six months or more. Everyone is buying new weapons. Give me a deposit and I will call you when something comes available.”

    So “everyone” is training to shoot and buying new weapons, and it is even being reported that break-ins to steal guns from sporting goods shops are increasing dramatically. Weapons are a hot commodity, which just might mean that the confidence among people that the state will keep them safe is at the vanishing point. Even the mainstream media has noticed the spike in gun sales, but they predictably use that fact to explain the surge in gun homicides across the country in the past several months. More weapons, per The Washington Post, means more armed racist white people are out on the streets raising hell, but it ignores the fact that the gun deaths have been overwhelmingly black-on-black, as has always been the case.

    I would also suggest that at least part of the explanation lies elsewhere, in less policing as cops have figured out that they have no one on their side and are best served by doing as little as possible when the shooting starts. Policemen have, in fact, been on the receiving end of much of the recent violence. Instead of seeking help from a cop, violent crime victims should call 911 and ask the operator to have Mayor Bill de Blasio send out a social worker whenever they get attacked by irate gang bangers. The NYPD cops are apparently too busy in any event as they are guardingthe black lives matter paintwork covering Fifth Avenue in front of the Trump Tower.

    Another thing one is now having difficulty in buying is alcohol. People are depressed and are drinking a hell of a lot more than normal, which can, of course, result in impulsive behavior. I live in Virginia and our state store is constantly running out of everything. A cashier told me that they are selling 300% more booze than normal for this time of year. Last week I went into a large and well-known liquor store in Washington D.C. and bought the last few bottles of our favorite scotch The Famous Grouse. They had run out and didn’t know when they would get more. My wife and I are anticipating a Famous Grouse crisis and we have discussed setting up a still in the basement.

    Finally, a family member owns a construction company. He recently said that business is unexpectedly booming, in part because people are building panic rooms, safe havens and even 1960s style fallout shelters in and behind their houses. But unlike the threat of nuclear war in the sixties, the current fear is that with the wreckers being given a free hand by the authorities, organized home invasions penetrating prosperous neighborhoods cannot be that far away. Most of the construction work is being done as unobtrusively as possible because the clients don’t want their neighbors to know how scared they are.

    So, there we are.

    The United States is troubled by a pandemic that the government seems unable to respond to which has produced record unemployment and bankruptcies. Meanwhile, guns and liquor and even coins are in demand while frightened citizens are building home defenses. And much of the government at all levels acts like it is either on the side of or afraid of the destroyers. America certainly has always had flaws but it was once a land of opportunity where people could prosper and enjoy more freedom than nearly anywhere else. Those days are gone so just relax and turn on the evening news. Watch a once proud country with a resilient and hard-working people come apart before your very eyes.

  • More People Contract COVID-19 From Family Members Than Outside Contacts: CDC
    More People Contract COVID-19 From Family Members Than Outside Contacts: CDC

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 19:25

    A study published by the US Centers for Disease Control found that people are more likely to contract COVID-19 from members of their own households than from those outside the house.

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    The study, published July 16, looked in detail at 5,706 South Korean “index patients” who tested positive for the virus, and took into account over 59,000 people who came into contact with them, according to Reuters.

    The findings showed just two out of 100 infected people had caught the virus from non-household contacts, while one in 10 had contracted the disease from their own families.

    By age group, the infection rate within the household was higher when the first confirmed cases were teenagers or people in their 60s and 70s.Reuters

    “This is probably because these age groups are more likely to be in close contact with family members as the group is in more need of protection or support,” said South Korea CDC (KCDC) Director Jeong Eun-kyeong, an author of the study.

    Notably, South Korea has been militant about contact tracing – using apps to track and publish the routes of confirmed patients, as well as demographics such as patients’ age, gender, neighborhood, businesses and apartment complexes they’ve visited and other metrics.

    According to the study, children under the age of 10 were least likely to be the “index patient” – though children with the virus were also more likely to be asymptomatic than adults, making it harder to identify index cases within the group.

    “The difference in age group has no huge significance when it comes to contracting COVID-19. Children could be less likely to transmit the virus, but our data is not enough to confirm this hypothesis,” said Dr. Choe Young-june, a co-author of the study and assistant professor at Hallyum University College of Medicine.

    South Korea has had 13,816 cases of coronavirus and 296 deaths.

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Today’s News 21st July 2020

  • UK Trade Group Warns Of "Jobs Bloodbath" And No V-Shaped Recovery 
    UK Trade Group Warns Of “Jobs Bloodbath” And No V-Shaped Recovery 

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 02:45

    Europe is facing a deeper recession in 2020 than previously thought, while the UK economy could shrink by 10% this year.

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    The shape of the UK recovery is turning out to be anything but a “V,” forcing more than half of the manufacturers in the country to reduce their respective labor forces in the back half of the year, according to Make UK’s latest Manufacturing Monitor survey.

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    The second round of job layoffs could be much deadlier for the economy than the first. Why is that? Well, it’s being called a “jobs bloodbath” by Make UK, because high-value skill jobs are the next to be axed. 

    The survey, which covered 170 companies between 7 and 14 July, shows 53% of manufacturers across the automotive and aerospace sectors are expecting layoffs of highly skilled workers by the end of the year. Make UK said these high-value sectors have long supply chains that employ tens of thousands of people directly and indirectly. If these jobs are lost due to an extended downturn, it would be disastrous for the economy and suggest a recovery could take years. 

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    Take, for example, Airbus. The European planemaker, with production sites in the UK, said in late June it would cut 15,000 workers across its entire global workforce and doesn’t expect a recovery in air travel until 2023.

    Make UK’s warning about high-value job loss comes as the UK economy is expected to shrink by nearly 10% this year, making it one of the worst-hit economies on the continent. 

    The road to recovery is far from a smooth sail, as what it’s routinely pitched by government officials and central bankers. 

    “At present, the prospect of a V shaped recovery for Industry seems remote.” said Stephen Phipson, CEO of Make UK. 

    With no “V” shaped recovery expected, the government might have to support additional rounds of its furlough scheme that pays wages of more than 9 million people. The program is expected to be round down in August and halted in late October. 

  • Drone Wars Open New Phase Of Conflict In Syria
    Drone Wars Open New Phase Of Conflict In Syria

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 02:00

    Submitted by South Front

    Early on July 20, positions of the Syrian Army came under shelling by militants in the villages of Furu, Bahsa and Beit Hassno in the southern part of the Idlib de-escalation zone. In response, government forces struck positions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sam near Kansafra and surrounding areas.

    Local tensions increased just a few days after a key infrastructure object of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib became the target of a drone attack. On July 18, three suicide drones hit facilities of the Watad Petroleum Company in the town of Saramada. This company is controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and has a monopoly on the fuel market in Greater Idlib. It is deeply involved in oil trafficking with nearby Turkish-occupied areas in northern Aleppo and responsible for the illegal import of fuel from Turkey. A notable part of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s revenue is generated by Watad.

    The HTS news agency Iba’a confirmed that the drones struck the headquarters of the company as well as its fuel market. However, the agency claimed that the strikes didn’t result in any human or material losses.

    A photo of one of the drones made before the attack shows an X-shaped wing design similar to that of the Hero family of loitering munitions produced by Israel’s UVision. Syrian sources speculate that this drone may be a Russian, Syrian or Iranian reverse-engineered copy of the Israeli munition. At the same time, it is likely that the strike was conducted by Turkey itself, which is silently working to undermine the dominance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in the region.

    Earlier in July, Idlib militants attacked a joint Turkish-Russian patrol on the M4 highway with a detonated car driven by a suicide bomber. It is hard to believe that such an attack could be possible without the coordination with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that controls the frontline in that area. So, Ankara may opt to employ some additional measures to demonstrate its dissatisfaction with such actions of its al-Qaeda partners, that Turkish state media like to call ‘moderate rebels’.

    On July 19, an improvised explosive device (IED) exploded in the Turkish-occupied town of Afrin in northern Aleppo. The IED targeted a vehicle of the Sham Corps militant group wounding at least 3 of its members, including a field commander. On the same day, a car bomb attack in the town of Sajjo reportedly killed 5 people and injured dozens of others. Turkish sources often blamed Kurdish rebels for these attacks. However, ISIS cells are also quite active in the Turkish-controlled part of Syria.

    On July 16, a quadcopter armed with an explosive charge targeted a group of Russian and Syrian service members in the vicinity of the town of al-Darbasiyah in northeastern Syria. Three service members of the Russian Military Police and three Syrian personnel were injured. According to reports, the attack took place during a meeting at a local coordination post, which was initiated due to the increase of ceasefire violations by Turkish-led forces on the contact line in northeastern Syria.

    Even if this attack was not initiated by Turkish forces themselves, but was a local initiative of Turkish proxies, such incidents do not contribute to the stability in Syria’s northeast. The regular ceasefire violations and attacks create an explosive situation on the frontline, which runs the risk of turning into an open military confrontation between the Syrian Army and Turkish forces. The areas with a strong Turkish military presence and the US-controlled zone of al-Tanf remain the main sources of tensions and instability in Syria.

  • Tucker Carlson Livid; Dismantles The New York Times Over Alleged Plan To Dox Him
    Tucker Carlson Livid; Dismantles The New York Times Over Alleged Plan To Dox Him

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/21/2020 – 00:00

    In November of 2018, an organized Antifa chapter known as “Smash Racism DC” showed up at the home of Fox News host Tucker Carlson – ringing his doorbell as their violent co-founder, Michael Isaacson – who loves dead cops and called for VP Mike Pence’s assassination – led them in chants such as “Tucker Carlson, we will fight! / We know where you sleep at night!

    Later that evening, the group posted “Every night you spread fear into our homes — fear of the other, fear of us, and fear of them. Tonight you’re reminded that we have a voice. Tonight, we remind you that you are not safe either.

    The angry mob would return weeks later to further hassle Carlson and his family.

    The previous month, Carlson said that he’s “not a restaurant guy anymore” because of the constant harassment from the left – including a verbal altercation the Fox News host got into with a man who allegedly called his 19-year-old daughter a “whore” at at a Charlottesville, VA club.

    Due to the ongoing threats, the Carlsons packed up and moved to a new house in order to keep his family out of harm’s way.

    Except now, Carlson claims that the New York Times is about to dox his family by revealing their new address in an upcoming article.

    This was his response Monday night:

    As a matter of journalism, there is no conceivable justification for a story like that. The paper is not alleging we’ve done anything wrong, and we haven’t. We pay our taxes. We like our neighbors. We’ve never had a dispute with anyone. So why is The New York Times doing a story on the location of my family’s house? Well, you know why. To hurt us, to injure my wife and kids so that I will shut up and stop disagreeing with them,” Carlson said, adding “Editors there know exactly what will happen to my family when it does run. I called them today, and I told them. But they didn’t care. They hate my politics. They want this show off the air. If one of my children gets hurt because of a story they wrote, they won’t consider it collateral damage. They know it’s the whole point of the exercise: To inflict pain on our family, to terrorize us, to control, we say. That’s the kind of people they are.”

    Watch:

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    The Times has denied the allegation, saying in a Monday night statement: “While we do not confirm what may or may publish in future editions, The Times has not and does not plan to expose any residence of Tucker Carlson’s, which Carlson was aware of before tonight’s broadcast.”

    Smash DC’s Isaacson, meanwhile, has an axe to grind after Carlson demolished him on live television in September, 2017:

    In addition to airing his violent fantasies across the internet, a January, 2017 undercover video from Project Veritas captured the now-fired Isaacson encouraging his supporters to “throat punch” conservatives.

    “Generally speaking, Nazis will only actually attack people if they strongly outnumber them because Nazis are essentially cowards. So if it’s three of them and a homeless guy, they’re going to beat him up. If it’s one of them and like six other people, they’re gonna run the f*ck away,” he told the Veritas journalist.

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    And now, if the New York Times does indeed dox Carlson – an unemployed Antifa leader with violent fantasies will know right where to send his angry mob.

  • Jack Ma’s Ant IPO Signals Start Of De-Dollarization
    Jack Ma’s Ant IPO Signals Start Of De-Dollarization

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Bloomberg macro commentator Ye Xie

    Monday’s trading saw a continuation of recent themes.

    1. Winners among the sectors least affected by the virus: the Nasdaq Composite Index rose to another record
    2. More government and central bank stimulus is coming: 10-year real Treasury yields are inching toward an all-time low, and the two-year Italian BTP yield turned negative again
    3. The stimulus suppresses asset volatility
    4. The dollar has peaked. The DXY Index is testing the post-Covid lows
    5. Buying the dip in risky assets makes sense because they have an imbedded call option on a vaccine. As time passes by, the chance of a medical breakthrough increases

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    Back in China, the biggest news overnight was that Jack Ma’s Ant Group is seeking a valuation of more than $200 billion as it goes public in Hong Kong and Shanghai. It could seek to raise more in its IPO than Saudi Aramco’s record $29 billion haul, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    The significance of this deal is multifold:

    • It would be the biggest IPO ever on mainland exchanges, smashing the record $10 billion debut by Agriculture Bank of China in 2010.
    • It signifies the rise of New China in the form of private high-tech companies, as opposed to the Old China dominated by state-owned banks and energy giants.
    • And it lends much needed credibility to the Shanghai stock exchange’s STAR board, which is designed to harbor tech startups.

    More importantly, the choice of Shanghai and Hong Kong for listing signals China’s deliberate efforts to reduce its reliance on the U.S. capital market for fund-raising amid the tension between the two countries. Already, Chinese and Hong Kong exchanges accommodated the world’s biggest four public listings this year, including Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. and JD.com.

    In the debt market, China’s borrowing in foreign currencies seems to have also peaked. The external debt was little changed at $1.3 trillion last year, after rising 16% in 2018 and 22% in 2017. Dollar-denominated debt accounted for 83% of the total foreing debt outstanding, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

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    Considering everything from the U.S.’s threat to delist Chinese companies, to moves to strip Hong Kong of its special status, it’s more than clear that China is starting its process of de-dollarization and furthering the internationalization of its own currency.

  • Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies Near Record Levels
    Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies Near Record Levels

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 23:10

    Delinquency rates across commercial properties have shot up faster than at any other time.

    As thousands of restaurants, hotels, and local businesses in the U.S. struggle to stay open, delinquency rates across commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – fixed income investments backed by a pool of commercial mortgages – have tripled in three months to 10.32%.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld notes, in just a few months, delinquency rates have already effectively reached their 2012 peaks. To put this in perspective, consider that it took well over two years for mortgage delinquency rates to reach the same historic levels in the aftermath of the housing crisis of 2009.

    The above chart draws data from Trepp and illustrates the recent shocks to the CMBS market, broken down by property type.

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    Storm Rumblings

    While there is optimism in some areas of the market, accommodation mortgages have witnessed delinquency rates soar over 24%.

    Amid strict containment efforts in April, average revenues per room plummeted all the way to $16 per night—an 84% drop.

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    Similarly, retail properties have been rattled. Almost one-fifth are in delinquencies. From January-June 2020, at least 15 major retailers have filed for bankruptcy and over $20 billion in CMBS loans have exposure to flailing chains such as JCPenney, Neiman Marcus, and Macy’s.

    On the other hand, industrial property types have remained stable, hovering close to their January levels. This is likely attributable in part to the fact that the rise in e-commerce sales have helped support warehouse operations.

    For multifamily and office buildings, Washington’s stimulus packages have helped renters to continue making payments thus far. Still, as the government considers ending stimulus packages in the near future, a lack of relief funding could spell trouble.

    Weighing the Impact on U.S. Cities

    How do delinquency rates vary across the top metropolitan areas in America?

    Below, we can see that the delinquent balance and delinquency rates vary widely by city. Note that this data is for private-labeled CMBS, which are issued by investment banks and private entities rather than government agencies.

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    Despite the New York city metropolitan area having a delinquent balance of $7 billion, its delinquency rates fall on the lower end of the spectrum, at 7%. New York alone accounts for 18% of the total balance of private-label CMBS.

    By comparison, the Syracuse metropolitan area has an eye-opening delinquency rate of 69%. Syracuse is home to the shopping complex, Destiny USA, which is facing tenant uncertainties due to COVID-19. The six-story mall attracts 26 million visitors annually.

    Like the overall market, delinquencies are being driven by accommodation and retail properties across many of these U.S. metropolitan areas.

    What Comes Next

    What happens when delinquency rates get too high?

    Often, when borrowers do not make payment after a reasonable amount of time, they enter into default. While time ranges can vary, defaults typically take place after at least 60 days of nonpayment. Between May and June, defaults in the CMBS market surged 792% to $5.5 billion.

    As effects reverberate, properties could eventually fall into foreclosure. At the same time, institutional investors who own these types of securities, which include pensions, could begin seeing steep losses.

    That said, the Federal Reserve has set up mechanisms to purchase CMBS loans with the highest credit quality. This is designed to inject liquidity into the mortgage market, while also financing small and mid-sized properties that house small businesses. In turn, this can enable the employment of millions of Americans.

    Of course, it remains to be seen whether the mortgage market will face a sustained downturn akin to the financial crisis, or if the temporary decline will soon subside.

  • Watch: Screeching Woman With Tape Measure Lectures Others For Not Social-Distancing
    Watch: Screeching Woman With Tape Measure Lectures Others For Not Social-Distancing

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 22:50

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    A video clip posted to TikTok shows a woman holding a tape measure screeching hysterically as she appears to be upset with beachgoers for not adhering to proper social distancing.

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    The woman screams something unintelligible before shouting “Fuck you! Get out of here!” at other people who appear to have gathered near a lake or a beach.

    The protagonist is wildly flailing around a tape measure she is holding as a man tries to restrain her.

    “It’s people like you that are ruining it for all of us!” she yells.

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    According to respondents on Twitter who translated comments made by the woman filming the video, the screeching lady is upset at the others for being too close and not properly social distancing.

    Others suggested that the woman was upset because she was trying to “measure something” and loud music was preventing her from concentrating.

    Either way, the woman filming the video says that she just wanted to have a “tranquil” day with her family.

    This looks like another case of a social distancing Karens gone wild.

    *  *  *

    There is a war on free speech. Without your support, my voice will be silenced. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  • World's Largest Producer Of Small Gasoline Engines Files For Bankruptcy
    World’s Largest Producer Of Small Gasoline Engines Files For Bankruptcy

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 22:30

    Briggs & Stratton Corporation, the world’s largest manufacturer of small gasoline engines with headquarters in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin, filed petitions on Monday morning for a court-supervised voluntary reorganization under Chapter 11, along with plans to sell “all the company’s assets” to KPS Capital Partners. 

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    The Fortune 1000 manufacturer of gasoline engines was able to secure a $677.5 million in Debtor-In-Possession (DIP) financing to support operations through reorganization efforts. The Company also said it “entered into a definitive stock and asset purchase agreement with KPS.”

    To facilitate the sale process and address its debt obligations, the Company has filed petitions for a court-supervised voluntary reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The Company has also obtained $677.5 million in DIP financing, with $265 million committed by KPS and the remaining $412.5 from the Company’s existing group of ABL lenders. Following court approval, the DIP facility will ensure that the Company has sufficient liquidity to continue normal operations and to meet its financial obligations during the Chapter 11 process, including the timely payment of employee wages and health benefits, continued servicing of customer orders and shipments, and other obligations.

    This process will allow the Company to ensure the viability of its business while providing sufficient liquidity to fully support operations through the closing of the transaction. Briggs & Stratton believes this process will benefit its employees, customers, channel partners, and suppliers, and best positions the Company for long-term success. This filing does not include any of Briggs & Stratton’s international subsidiaries. – Briggs & Stratton’s press release states

    Todd Teske, Briggs & Stratton’s CEO, stated the Company faced “challenges” during the virus pandemic that made reorganization “necessary and appropriate” for the survivability of the Company.  

    “Over the past several months, we have explored multiple options with our advisors to strengthen our financial position and flexibility. The challenges we have faced during the COVID-19 pandemic have made reorganization the difficult but necessary and appropriate path forward to secure our business. It also gives us support to execute on our strategic plans to bring greater value to our customers and channel partners. Throughout this process, Briggs & Stratton products will continue to be produced, distributed, sold and fully backed by our dedicated team,” said Teske. 

    Briggs & Stratton is the world’s top engine designer and manufacturer for outdoor power equipment, with 85% of the small engines produced in the U.S. The pandemic and resulting virus-induced recession have been brutal for the Company, with declining engine sales, resulting in a reduction in the US workforce. 

    Financial Times noted, in June, the Company had difficulty refinancing a $175 million bond that matured in September. Sources told FT the Company’s deteriorating position made it impossible to obtain refinancing funds in the bond market. 

    Add Briggs & Stratton to the list of bankrupted companies as an avalanche of bankruptcies is expected in the second half of the year. 

    Not surprising whatsoever, Robinhood daytraders have panic bought collapsing Briggs & Stratton shares. 

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    The bankruptcy wave is not over, it’s only getting started as the virus-induced recession will be more prolonged than previously thought. 

  • Citadel Fined For Frontrunning Of Client Orders After Threatening To Sue Zerohedge
    Citadel Fined For Frontrunning Of Client Orders After Threatening To Sue Zerohedge

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 22:17

    One month ago, shortly after our return to twitter from “permanent” banishment, when so much public attention had suddenly shifted to the retail daytrading platform Robinhood, we explained just how it is that Robinhood was so efficient at moving markets, and it had nothing to do with Robinhood or its small but dedicated army of 10-year-old daytrading fanatics. Instead, it had everything to do with various High Frequency Trading platforms buying up the retail orderflow that Robinhood  was so generously packaging and reselling to the highest bidder, effectively giving HFTs a risk-free way of making pennies from every trade, which would then propagate like wildfire across various trading venues, massively accentuating every small move thanks to the momentum-ignition capabilities of HFT algos.

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    We then also pointed out that Robinhood engages in a practice called payment-for-order-flow…

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    … for reasons that would become known shortly. 

    Unfortunately, both of those tweets no longer exist for the simple reason that just days after they were published, we received an angry letter from Citadel’s lawyers at Clare Locke threatening to sue us into oblivion if we did not immediately retract and delete said tweets.

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    Some key phrases of note from the above text:

    • “‘Frontrunning’ is an industry term of art that refers to an illegal form of trading.”
    • Citadel Securites does not engage in such conduct [i.e., frontrunning] and there was no factual basis whatsoever for ZeroHedge to publish such an incendiary, false, and reckless allegation to its 742,000 Twitter followers” [it’s 771,000 now].
    • “ZeroHedge’s statement obviously disparages the lawfulness and integrity of Citadel Securities’ business pratices.”
    • “Quite obviously, this most recent iteration of this same harmful allegation was not made in jest.”
    • “We demand that ZeroHedge immediately retract this tweet by deleting it from ZeroHedge’s Twitter page… A refusal to promptly take down these remedial steps will be seen as further evidence of actual malice and will only increase the already substantial legal risk faced by you and ZeroHedge.”

    As the letter correctly notes, this was not the first time Citadel Securities (which is majority-owned by Ken Griffin, the billionaire investor, and is the sister firm to Citadel, the hedge fund he runs) threatened legal action against Zero Hedge for accusing the trading giant of frontrunning orders. On November 22, just hours if not minutes after a tweet of a similar nature, we got a similar legal threat from the same law firm. Again, some of the highlights from that particular letter:

    • “ZeroHedge’s statement obviously disparages the lawfulness and integrity of Mr. Griffin and Citadel Securites’s business practices, and thus is defamatory per se.[sic]”
    • “As you well know, “frontrunning” is an unethical and illegal trading practice.”

    Needless to say, instead of engaging in a legal battle with the world’s richest and most powerful trader and his army of lawyers, we decided to simply comply with their demand. That said, dear gentlemen from ClareLocke – we do know very well that frontrunning is an unethical and illegal trading practice. But we wonder: does your client know that?

    The reason why we ask is very simple. According to a Letter of Acceptance (No. 2014041859401), Waiver and Consent published by financial regulator FINRA, none other than Citadel Securities was censured and fined for engaging in – drumroll – “trading ahead of customer orders.”

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    Now we admit that our financial jargon is a bit rusty these days, but “trading ahead of customer orders” sounds awfully similar to another far more popular “term of art“, one which we know very well: frontrunning!

    Jargon aside, some of the other highlighted words we are very familiar with, such as “hundreds of thousands”… and “559 instances” in which Citadel traded ahead of customer orders.

    Now, we may be getting a little ahead of ourselves here, but it was Citadel’s own lawyers that informed us on more than one occasion that:

    “frontrunning” is an unethical and illegal trading practice.”

    So, what are we to make of this? Could it be that Citadel was engaging in at least 559 instance of what its lawyer called “unethical and illegal trading practice.” Surely not: after all the lawyers would surely know very well how ridiculous and laughable their letter and threats would look if it ever emerged that Citadel was indeed frontrunning its customers.

    But then we read that Finra censured and fined Citadel $700,000 – or as twitter user @KennethDread puts it 0.70% Basquiats…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … and it appears that Citadel may indeed have engaged in some of what its own lawyers called “unethical and illegal” trading practice, especially since Citadel Securities’ own General Counsel, Steve Luparello signed the Finra AWC:

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    Well that’s… awkward.

    And lest someone ignores all of the above – after all it was published in a fringe, tinfoil conspiracy theory website which according to glorious liberal wizards at Wikipedia is somehow both “far right” and “libertarian” at the same time – here is the far more “erudite” Financial Times   explaining what happened:

    Over a two-year period until September 2014, the market-maker removed hundreds of thousands of large OTC orders from its automated trading processes, according to Finra. That rendered the orders “inactive” and so they had to be handled manually by human traders.

    Citadel Securities then “traded for its own account on the same side of the market at prices that would have satisfied the orders,” without immediately filling the inactive orders at the same or better prices as required by Finra rules, the regulator said.

    In February 2014, a sample month reviewed by Finra, the market-maker traded ahead in nearly three-quarters of the inactive orders. “Based on this review, in 559 instances, Citadel Securities traded ahead of 415 inactive OTC customer orders,” the regulator said.

    Of course, since the action was launched by Finra and not the SEC – probably for a reason – Citadel was allowed to put the whole sordid affair behind it without admitting or denying the claims. Just one glitch: the company was required to make whole any customers affected, not something a market maker does if they legitimately “deny” anything bad actually happened.

    The good news is that neither Citadel nor its lawyers can go after us again for merely reporting what Finra already found because on page 11 of the AWC we read the following:

    The Firm may not take any action or make or permit to be made any public statement, including in regulatory filings or otherwise, denying, directly or indirectly, any finding in this AWC or create the impression that the AWC is without factual basis.

    Which means that going forward, allegations about Citadel frontran its clients – on at least 559 instances no less – are fair game. That said, Citadel did make a statement to the FT:

    “We have addressed all of Finra’s concerns and take very seriously our obligations to comply fully with its rules. The issue relates to a limited number of manually handled orders, most of which occurred in 2012-2014.”

    Which is a succinct way of summarizing precisely what Finra said. Our own request for comments was not returned by the publication time.

    But wait, there’s more!

    Finra also said Citadel Securities fell short of supervisory requirements and failed to display certain OTC customers’ limit orders: instructions to buy or sell at a specific price, or better. As the FT notes, “nearly half of the 467 limit orders reviewed by the regulator in the six years until September 2018 were found to violate Finra’s requirements to display orders. The bulk of the violations were for failing to execute trades against existing quotations in a timely manner, Finra said.”

    What does the above mean for clients? Well, they are welcome to sue Citadel Securities and get their money back. As Finra writes, “the imposition of a restitution order or any other monetary sanction herein, and the timing of such ordered payments, does not preclude customers from pursuing their own actions to obtain restitution or other remedies.

    What does the above mean for Ken Griffin? Well, as noted above, the penalty is about 0.7% of what the CEO recently paid for a Basquiat painting.

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    It’s also clear that the size of the “penalty” will certainly not force Griffin to mortgage one or more of his extensive properties located in New York, London, Chicago, or Palm Beach and countless others cities across the globe:

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    Source: @CommishCW

    One thing that is certain is that “trading” clearly pays, even if it means occasionally and purely unaccidentally “removing hundreds of thousands of mostly larger customer orders” from mandatory Trading Ahead and Limit Order Display Rules and customer protections. Surely that happens every day to all of us.

    In fact the only confusion we have at this moment is who is more ironically named: Citadel or Robinhood?

  • The "Primary Subsource's" Guide To Russiagate, As Told To The FBI
    The “Primary Subsource’s” Guide To Russiagate, As Told To The FBI

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 22:10

    Authored by Eric Felten via RealClearInvestigations.com,

    Much of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation into Donald Trump was built on the premise that Christopher Steele and his dossier were to be believed. This even though, early on, Steele’s claims failed to bear scrutiny. Just how far off the claims were became clear when the FBI interviewed Steele’s “Primary Subsource” over three days beginning on Feb. 9, 2017. Notes taken by FBI agents of those interviews were released by the Senate Judiciary Committee Friday afternoon.

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    The Primary Subsource was in reality Steele’s sole source, a long-time Russian-speaking contractor for the former British spy’s company, Orbis Business Intelligence. In turn, the Primary Subsource had a group of friends in Russia. All of their names remain redacted. From the FBI interviews it becomes clear that the Primary Subsource and his friends peddled warmed-over rumors and laughable gossip that Steele dressed up as formal intelligence memos.

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    Paul Manafort: The Steele dossier’s “Primary Subsource” admitted to the FBI “that he was ‘clueless’ about who Manafort was, and that this was a ‘strange task’ to have been given.” AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File

    Steele’s operation didn’t rely on great expertise, to judge from the Primary Subsource’s account. He described to the FBI the instructions Steele had given him sometime in the spring of 2016 regarding Paul Manafort: “Do you know [about] Manafort? Find out about Manafort’s dealings with Ukraine, his dealings with other countries, and any corrupt schemes.” The Primary Subsource admitted to the FBI “that he was ‘clueless’ about who Manafort was, and that this was a ‘strange task’ to have been given.”

    The Primary Subsource said at first that maybe he had asked some of his friends in Russia – he didn’t have a network of sources, according to his lawyer, but instead just a “social circle.” And a boozy one at that: When the Primary Subsource would get together with his old friend Source 4, the two would drink heavily. But his social circle was no help with the Manafort question and so the Primary Subsource scrounged up a few old news clippings about Manafort and fed them back to Steele.

    Also in his “social circle” was Primary Subsource’s friend “Source 2,” a character who was always on the make. “He often tries to monetize his relationship with [the Primary Subsource], suggesting that the two of them should try and do projects together for money,” the Primary Subsource told the FBI (a caution that the Primary Subsource would repeat again and again.) It was Source 2 who “told [the Primary Subsource] that there was compromising material on Trump.”

    And then there was Source 3, a very special friend. Over a redacted number of years, the Primary Subsource has “helped out [Source 3] financially.” She stayed with him when visiting the United States. The Primary Subsource told the FBI that in the midst of their conversations about Trump, they would also talk about “a private subject.” (The FBI agents, for all their hardnosed reputation, were too delicate to intrude by asking what that “private subject” was).

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    Michael Cohen: The bogus story of the Trump fixer’s trip to Prague seems to have originated with “Source 3,” a woman friend of the Primary Subsource, who was “not sure if Source 3 was brainstorming here.”  AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File

    One day Steele told his lead contractor to get dirt on five individuals. By the time he got around to it, the Primary Subsource had forgotten two of the names, but seemed to recall Carter Page, Paul Manafort and Trump lawyer Michael Cohen. The Primary Subsource said he asked his special friend Source 3 if she knew any of them. At first she didn’t. But within minutes she seemed to recall having heard of Cohen, according to the FBI notes. Indeed, before long it came back to her that she had heard Cohen and three henchmen had gone to Prague to meet with Russians.

    Source 3 kept spinning yarns about Michael Cohen in Prague. For example, she claimed Cohen was delivering “deniable cash payments” to hackers. But come to think of it, the Primary Subsource was “not sure if Source 3 was brainstorming here,” the FBI notes say.

    The Steele Dossier would end up having authoritative-sounding reports of hackers who had been “recruited under duress by the FSB” — the Russian security service — and how they “had been using botnets and porn traffic to transmit viruses, plant bugs, steal data and conduct ‘altering operations’ against the the Democratic Party.” What exactly, the FBI asked the subject, were “altering operations?” The Primary Subsource wouldn’t be much help there, as he told the FBI “that his understanding of this topic (i.e. cyber) was ‘zero.’” But what about his girlfriend whom he had known since they were in eighth grade together? The Primary Subsource admitted to the FBI that Source 3 “is not an IT specialist herself.”

    And then there was Source 6. Or at least the Primary Subsource thinks it was Source 6.

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    Ritz-Carlton Moscow: The Primary Subsource admitted to the FBI “he had not been able to confirm the story” about Trump and prostitutes at the hotel. But he did check with someone who supposedly asked a hotel manager, who said that with celebrities, “one never knows what they’re doing.” Moscowjob.net/Wikimedia

    While he was doing his research on Manafort, the Primary Subsource met a U.S. journalist “at a Thai restaurant.” The Primary Subsource didn’t want to ask “revealing questions” but managed to go so far as to ask, “Do you [redacted] know anyone who can talk about all of this Trump/Manafort stuff, or Trump and Russia?” According to the FBI notes, the journalist told Primary Subsource “that he was skeptical and nothing substantive had turned up.” But the journalist put the Primary Subsource in touch with a “colleague” who in turn gave him an email of “this guy” journalist 2 had interviewed and “that he should talk to.”

    With the email address of “this guy” in hand, the Primary Subsource sent him a message “in either June or July 2016.” Some weeks later the Primary Subsource “received a telephone call from an unidentified Russia guy.” He “thought” but had no evidence that the mystery “Russian guy” was “that guy.” The mystery caller “never identified himself.” The Primary Subsource labeled the anonymous caller “Source 6.” The Primary Subsource and Source 6 talked for a total of “about 10 minutes.” During that brief conversation they spoke about the Primary Subsource traveling to meet the anonymous caller, but the hook-up never happened.

    Nonetheless, the Primary Subsource labeled the unknown Russian voice “Source 6” and gave Christopher Steele the rundown on their brief conversation – how they had “a general discussion about Trump and the Kremlin” and “that it was an ongoing relationship.” For use in the dossier, Steele named the voice Source E.

    When Steele was done putting this utterly unsourced claim into the style of the dossier, here’s how the mystery call from the unknown guy was presented: “Speaking in confidence to a compatriot in late July 2016, Source E, an ethnic Russian close associate of Republican US presidential candidate Donald TRUMP, admitted that there was a well-developed conspiracy of co-operation between them and the Russian leadership.” Steele writes “Inter alia,” – yes, he really does deploy the Latin formulation for “among other things”  – “Source E acknowledged that the Russian regime had been behind the recent leak of embarrassing e-mail messages, emanating from the Democratic National Committee [DNC], to the WikiLeaks platform.”

    All that and more is presented as the testimony of a “close associate” of Trump, when it was just the disembodied voice of an unknown guy.

    Perhaps even more perplexing is that the FBI interviewers, knowing that Source E  was just an anonymous caller, didn’t compare that admission to the fantastical Steele bluster and declare the dossier a fabrication on the spot.

    But perhaps it might be argued that Christopher Steele was bringing crack investigative skills of his own to bear. For something as rich in detail and powerful in effect as the dossier, Steele must have been researching these questions himself as well, using his hard-earned spy savvy to pry closely held secrets away from the Russians. Or at the very least he must have relied on a team of intelligence operatives who could have gone far beyond the obvious limitations the Primary Subsource and his group of drinking buddies.

    But no. As we learned in December from Inspector General Michael Horowitz, Steele “was not the originating source of any of the factual information in his reporting.” Steele, the IG reported “relied on a primary sub-source (Primary Sub-source) for information, and this Primary Sub-source used a network of [further] sub-sources to gather the information that was relayed to Steele.” The inspector general’s report noted that “neither Steele nor the Primary Sub-source had direct access to the information being reported.”

    One might, by now, harbor some skepticism about the dossier. One might even be inclined to doubt the story that Trump was “into water sports” as the Primary Subsource so delicately described the tale of Trump and Moscow prostitutes. But, in this account, there was an effort, however feeble, to nail down the “rumor and speculation” that Trump engaged in “unorthodox sexual activity at the Ritz.”

    While the Primary Subsource admitted to the FBI “he had not been able to confirm the story,” Source 2 (who will be remembered as the hustler always looking for a lucrative score) supposedly asked a hotel manager about Trump and the manager said that with celebrities, “one never knows what they’re doing.” One never knows – not exactly a robust proof of something that smacks of urban myth. But the Primary Subsource makes the best of it, declaring that at least “it wasn’t a denial.”

    If there was any denial going on it was the FBI’s, an agency in denial that its extraordinary investigation was crumbling.

  • The Four Horsemen Of Disinflation: The Coming Rent-pocalypse
    The Four Horsemen Of Disinflation: The Coming Rent-pocalypse

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 21:50

    One month ago, we discussed “The Most Important Question In Finance Today“, namely whether in the aftermath of the covid pandemic the world ends up with runaway inflation or price-crushing deflation. Today, Bank of America provides some additional perspective on what it calls the “inflation rollercoaster.”

    Separating the inflation stories

    As BofA notes, the pandemic has created significant disinflationary shock to the US economy, with the latest CPI report showing core inflation running at a meager 1.2% yoy clip and core PCE later this month likely to come in at 1.1%. That said, it is important to note that current inflation readings are suggesting conditions are much worse than they actually are. Indeed, most of the deceleration can be attributed to a handful of idiosyncratic components. The underlying trend is stickier and has slowed more modestly.

    Looking ahead, the underlying trend slows with rental inflation holding the key. This means that the rollercoaster will eventually turn-the base effects will turn positive in March 2021-and accelerate before settling at a higher, although still likely below target. Consistent with this thinking, Bank of America expects core CPI to trough at 0.8% yoy in 1Q 2021 before rising to 1.6% by the end of next year.

    Four horsemen of disinflation

    From March through May, the months when the covid shutdowns unleashed unprecedented damage on the US economy, core CPI declined by a cumulative 0.6% resulting in the % yoy rate collapsing to 1.2% from 2.4% in February. The deterioration owed largely to four main areas of weakness: lodging away from home, airline fares, apparel, and motor vehicle insurance. Despite these categories amounting to 6%-7% of CPI, each experienced a record drop in prices.

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    The first three fell as nonessential travel and businesses activity were shut down, and followed the same pattern of April being the worst month, followed by March and then May. Motor vehicle insurance dropped after insurers began an assortment of COVID-19 relief programs that provided temporary discounts or credits on auto premiums, for April and May for the most part.

    According to BofA, these components have added significant noise to the data and should be largely faded when thinking about the underlying inflation trend. They are extreme idiosyncratic moves and are likely to prove transitory (unless there is a second wave of shutdowns of course). Moreover, we have already started to see stabilization in June as all four components posted an increase. With prices so low still, further positive payback seems more likely going forward than another major leg down. If excluded from core CPI, then inflation has slowed more modestly through June to 2.42% from a February reading of 2.59%.

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    Another more standard inflation metric that paints a similar picture of stickier underlying inflation is the Cleveland Fed’s Trimmed Mean CPI-an index that excludes the 8% of components with the most extreme moves to the upside and the 8% to the downside. TM CPI has also seen modest slowing to 2.27% yoy from 2.42% in February. But the risks are skewed to the downside going forward. Given the stickiness of underlying inflation, it takes some time for the demand shock to percolate and pull down prices.

    The coming rent-pocalypse?

    The key for underlying inflation will be what happens to owners’ equivalent rent (OER) and rent of primary residence, since the two comprise more than 40% of core CPI inflation. The housing data have been particularly resilient relative to the broader economic data, with the NAHB housing index just recently popping up to 72 in July from 58 and existing and new home sales likely to rise in June. Indeed, homebuying demand has been surprisingly firm during the pandemic as lower interest rates have raised affordability and preferences have increasingly shifted towards suburban living where homeownership is more feasible. However, the resilience of the homeownership market is likely to come at the expense of the rental market. While owners’ equivalent rent is meant to reflect housing costs borne by owner-occupied households, it is estimated using rent data and will therefore be sensitive to rental market dynamics.

    So where do rents go from here? According to BofA, the labor market conditions will be a major driver of the rent trajectory. The early data have surprised expectations with the unemployment rate peaking at “only” 14.7% in April and falling to 11.1% in June. However, job gains going forward will not be quite so easy to come by. The virus is not under control as several hotspots have emerged in the last month, and most states have either put a pause on or reversed the reopening process. The real-time labor data are ominous as well as the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse survey have shown declining employment since  the week of June 16th.

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    Meanwhile, BofA notes that it has started to see weakness register in CPI in the latest June report: both owners’ equivalent rent and rent of primary residence increased by only 0.1% mom-the softest readings since early 2011. This resulted in the % yoy rates for OER falling to 2.8% yoy from 3.3% in February and for rent of primary residence to 3.2% yoy from 3.8%. And while it may be premature to read into one month of data, BofA’s economists believe that this could be the beginning of a downtrend.

    The regional OER data reveal that the soft June data were largely driven by the South and West. Weakness was also relatively broad in these two regions as rent inflation in both large (A, > 2.5mn people) and small (B/C, < 2.5mn people) urban areas were 0-0.1% mom. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest posted trend-like rent gains in June. These two regions have not been immune to the deterioration in labor conditions, so that does pose a bit of a disconnect in terms of the labor-rent response. The June print would be more convincing if all four regions had softened-should this happen clearly there is scope for even weaker monthly readings in broad OER and rent of primary residence.

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    Even if June ends up being slightly fluky, the risks ahead are clearly skewed to the downside. It is worth reiterating that the CPI methodology allows for significant deflation to materialize in the rent components. If there is a missed payment and the landlord does not expect or is uncertain they will receive it, then that will register as a 95% decline in rents. Therefore, even a small share of missed rent payments can exert a noticeable drag. This is a tail risk though: Janson and Verbrugge (July 2020) found that the incidence of nonpayment in the CPI sample was quite low during the Great Recession. However, given the speed and severity of the current downturn, it could prove to be different this time.

    What will slowing rents mean for underlying inflation? We can proxy the impact by simulating the effects of rent on core CPI. If OER and rents average a 0.15% mom clip from now until the end of 2021, then core CPI % yoy would slow by roughly 0.5pp.

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    If a softer average 0.1% mom reading, then it would be a 0.7pp deceleration. FWIW, BofA believes the underlying trend could slow by an amount within this range, although they can’t eliminate the risk of an even worse outcome as labor market slack will remain elevated with the unemployment rate ending next year close to 8%.

    Stuck in purgatory

    Putting it all together, BofA expects core CPI to continue to be biased lower through early next year, with core CPI settling below the pre-COVID trend-1.6%. After this point, the special factors will start to fade allowing for acceleration.

  • "Pent-Up Supply" Floods San Francisco Housing Market, Most Since Housing Bust
    “Pent-Up Supply” Floods San Francisco Housing Market, Most Since Housing Bust

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

    There is a lot of discussion about the low levels of inventory for sale, as potential sellers have pulled their homes off the market or are not wanting to list their homes at the moment, waiting for the Pandemic to blow over, or waiting for more certainty or whatever; or their mortgage is now in forbearance and they don’t want to make a move.

    These discussions cite buyers who, after being kept out of the housing market for a couple of months due to the lockdowns, are now swarming around out there, stumbling all over each other, looking for homes to buy, jostling for position, and engaging in bidding wars with each other.

    And then there is the widely reported move to the suburbs, or to small towns, and away from big densely populated cities, by those who have shifted to work-from-home, to work-from-anywhere, which blatantly contradicts some of the other stories of big cities being overrun by buyers engaging in bidding wars.

    Those are some of the narratives we’re hearing, and they all make some intuitive sense. But this is not the case everywhere. So we’re going to look at San Francisco, one of the most expensive housing markets in the US, based on weekly data that was compiled by real-estate brokerage Redfin, from local multiple listing service (MLS) and Redfin’s own data, updated at the end of the week.

    San Francisco is now flooded with homes for sale. “Active listings” surged to 1,344 homes in the week ended July 5, up 65% from the same week last year, and the highest number since the housing bust, amid a 145% year-over-year surge in “new listings.”

    There normally is a seasonal surge in active listings after Labor Day that peaks in late October. But this month, the surge of active listings (1,344) has already blown by those peaks in October, including the multi-year peak of 1,296 in October 2019. This is “pent-up supply” coming on the market at the wrong time of the year when supply normally declines (chart via Redfin):

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    Redfin’s data doesn’t go back that far. But the 1,344 active listings would be the highest since 2011, during the final stretch of the San Francisco Housing Bust, based on MLS data provided by local real-estate site, SocketSite.

    Supply of homes for sales has more than doubled, from 7.8 weeks last year at this time to 16.6 weeks now, at the current rate of sales. Note the spike of supply in May, a function of sales that had collapsed (chart via Redfin).

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    Homes are being pulled off the market again: 61 homes were delisted, over double the number in the same week last year. The chart below shows the spike in delisted homes that started in mid-March during the early phases of the lockdown. It also shows the normal seasonal spike of delistings ahead of the holidays in December – yes, inventory is low because sellers pull their unsold property off the market. But now, with the flood of inventory for sale on the market, the surge in delisted homes has started again (chart via Redfin):

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    Pending sales lack pent-up demand. Pending sales had collapsed 77% by early April compared to the same time last year, but then started digging out of that trough. In early July, pending sales were still down 8% from last year and now are following the seasonal downtrend and appear to be back on track, just slightly lower.

    In terms of the recovery, that was pretty good. But there is no sign of pent-up demand, and the home sales that didn’t happen during the collapse in March, April, and May have not created a surge in deals, and there is no sign of pent-up demand (chart via Redfin).

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    Buyers now have the largest choice of homes for sale since the Housing Bust nearly a decade ago. And there is no need to engage in bidding wars or other foolishness.

    Sellers might be motivated, as they say. Among the sellers might be those who – given the issues of the Pandemic, or future Pandemics – are itching to leave the second most densely populated city in the US, and one of the most expensive, and head to cheaper pastures inland in California, or to other states, or to smaller towns with big price tags along the California coast.

    There is lots of anecdotal reporting on these trends, including housing markets that have caught fire in places such as Carmel-by-the-Sea, a beach town on California’s Monterey Peninsula, on Highway 1, about 110 miles south of San Francisco and about 75 miles south of Silicon Valley.

    And with work-from-home in place, it might be convenient too. It doesn’t take very long to drive to San Francisco and less long to Silicon Valley for the twice-a-month meeting, especially now, with work-from-home having cleared up some of the previously infernal congestion.

    There are all kinds of anecdotal observations and theories people are spinning at the moment, trying to come to grips with the changes underway. But one thing we can now see: The sellers have come out of the woodwork in San Francisco. Just don’t look for the usual thicket of open-house signs on the sidewalk. The process has gone digital and by appointment only.

    *  *  *

    Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely.

  • Do As I Say, Not As I Do: Well Known Tech Antitrust Critic Works For Apple And Amazon On The Side
    Do As I Say, Not As I Do: Well Known Tech Antitrust Critic Works For Apple And Amazon On The Side

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 21:10

    One of the country’s most well known antitrust critics, Fiona Scott Morton, happens to be advising two of the biggest tech names in the country, Amazon and Apple, on the side. Morton was labeled a “antitrust crusader” in 2019 by the New Republic. 

    Scott Morton has consistently said that tech giants are stifling competition and innovation in the country, but failed to recently disclose relationships with Amazon and Apple in papers she recently co-authored, according to Bloomberg. The papers laid out how the U.S. could bring antitrust cases against both Google and Facebook. 

    She claims that she usually discloses conflicts and that lack of disclosure on the papers shouldn’t be an issue because “Apple and Amazon didn’t pay her to write them” and because they “didn’t focus” on either company. She failed to address the obvious, however: that those companies are competitors of both Google and Facebook. 

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    “I work for companies that I’m comfortable are not breaking the law. So you’re articulating what is making the market work well and how the company’s conduct is pro-competitive or efficient,” she said.

    The consulting work she is doing raises obvious ethics questions, especially as antitrust probes are starting to broaden. Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google are all expected to face significant government scrutiny when they testify July 27 before a House panel.

    Scott Morton’s past includes serving for the Justice Department’s anti-trust division from 2011 to 2012. She claims that consulting is “important to her research and teaching” (and wallet) and declined to offer further details about her work. 

    George DeMartino, a professor at the University of Denver who specializes in ethic says that Scott Morton “should have disclosed her work for Amazon and Apple in the papers”. American Economic Association principles dictate that “economists disclose real and potential conflicts that might influence their work”.

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    DeMartino said: “Professionals have a duty to maintain trust, which as we now know is a fragile thing. That requires disclosing any actual conflict of interest or any entanglement that might reasonably be interpreted by others as a conflict.”

    Gene Kimmelman, a senior adviser at Public Knowledge, who worked with Scott Morton on the Google and Facebook reports said that “conflicts are rife in the antitrust field”. He defended Scott Morton and said that she disclosed her work to him. “I wish all antitrust economists and lawyers had the level of integrity and consistency in analysis she has demonstrated over and over again,” he said.

    He also says he hired an outside lawyer to navigate potential conflicts regarding 10 different advisors he asked for help. Almost all of them had conflicts, he said. “Part of the game is to hire them to prevent your opponents from being able to hire them. It’s a large investment that can pay off enormously.”

    Economists are “among the most important” hires for companies facing anti-trust violations, Carl Shapiro, an economist at the University of California-Berkeley, said. Google specifically has hired tons of economists, who have cranked out a total of about 330 research papers between 2005 and 2017 that the company supported directly or indirectly. Recipients failed to disclose the funding source in 65% of cases. 

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    Scott Morton stands out, however, because she has been such a high profile name: she has appeared on panel discussions and has testified in front of congress. Last year she helped pen a paper about the “immense power of tech platforms”. 

    And the names funding her have also come under scrutiny. Amazon has specifically been the target of Elizabeth Warren, who Tweeted in 2019: “Giant tech companies have too much power. My plan to #BreakUpBigTech prevents corporations like Amazon from knocking out the rest of the competition. You can be an umpire, or you can be a player — but you can’t be both.”

    At the time, Scott Morton retweeted the Tweet and said: “This is the most articulate explanation of this Amazon theory of harm I have heard so far.”

    She has since deleted the Tweet. 

  • Suspect Who Killed Son Of Epstein-Linked Judge Identified
    Suspect Who Killed Son Of Epstein-Linked Judge Identified

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 20:55

    Update (1540ET): Citing federal law enforcement sources, the NY Post has just published more details about the deceased suspect in an attack that left the son of a judge overseeing a lawsuit against Deutsche Bank involving the bank’s failure to hold Epstein accountable.

    Though some reports claim the suspect actually intended to target Judge Salas’s husband, it appears initial reports that the suspect was a lawyer who had once argued a case before the judge have been confirmed.

    The suspect, whose body was found in the Catskills, has been identified as lawyer and men’s rights activist Roy Den Hollander. It’s believed that Hollander had a case pending before Salas where he was challenging the “men’s only” draft. Hollander also once sued Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet the Press, the New York Times’ commentator David Brooks, and Major Garrett of CBS. He accused them of violating the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act by allegedly committing “wire fraud” for publishing “fake news” reports about President Trump.

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    Roy Hollander

    Authorities told a local ABC affiliate that they’re still trying to determine if the judge, or her husband, a well-known criminal defense lawyer, was the intended target.

    * * *

    Update (1324ET): Last night’s killing in North Brunswick has dominated the news cycle on Monday as numerous ‘experts’ have stepped forward to denounce the connection between the shooting and a civil suit against Deutsche Bank that Judge Salas had recently been charged with overseeing.

    Now, authorities are telling media that the suspect in the shooting has been found dead via suicide in Liberty, NY.

    That’s an unexpectedly morbid turn. But there’s more: The suspect was a white man (remember, lower-case “w” for white) who wore a face covering and a FedEx uniform, law enforcement sources told ABC News, and he used an ordinary car to make a getaway.

    But here’s the real twist. Though his name hasn’t been released, authorities said the suspect was an attorney who once argued a case before Judge Salas, back in 2015. Police told reporters that they suspect the suspect killed himself with a self-inflicted gunshot.

    Here’s more from ABC:

    The suspect was later found dead of an apparently self-inflicted gunshot wound near Liberty, New York, multiple law enforcement sources told ABC News. A municipal employee discovered the body in a car.

    The deceased suspect was an attorney who had a case before Judge Salas in 2015, sources said. A FedEx package addressed to Judge Salas was discovered in the car, sources said.

    “As a judge, she had threats from time to time, but everyone is saying that recently there had not been any,” said Mayor Womack, who is personal friends with the judge and her husband.

    FedEx Spokesman Jim Masilak said in a statement, “We are aware of the media reports and are fully cooperating with investigating authorities.”

    It sounds plausible enough. However, in a world where everything with even the most remote connection to Epstein inspires intrigue and suspicion, we wouldn’t be surprised if the authorities’ eventual report produces more questions than answers.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In addition to the FBI, the New Jersey State Police, the North Brunswick Police and the Middlesex County Prosecutor’s office are also involved in the investigation, which isn’t over yet, apparently. The US Marshals have been called upon to provide a detail for the judge.

    * * *

    When we first spotted headlines about a lone gunman’s lethal assault on the home of a federal judge in New Jersey, we feared this was just another example of how criminals have been emboldened by the nationwide backlash against law enforcement embodied by the ‘defund the police’ movement.

    But that was before we learned that the judge targeted in the attack – Newark-based US federal judge Esther Salas – had been assigned to a Deutsche Bank/Epstein lawsuit just four days before the attack.

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    The shooting occurred Sunday night at around 5pmET. Salas 20-year-old son Daniel Anderl, a student, opened the door at the family home in North Brunswick after hearing the doorbell ring. The man outside appeared to be a FedEx employee, according to media reports.

    Almost immediately, the gunman started blasting, shooting and killing Anderl, and badly wounding his father, Mark Anderl, 63, a prominent defense attorney in the area. Salas has reportedly received threats from time to time, but local press reported that Salas hadn’t received any threats recently.

    Seated in Newark, Salas’ most high-profile cases recently involved the tax evasion prosecution of Joe Giudice, the husband of RHNJ star Theresa Giudice. She also spared a murderous gang leader from the death penalty over what she ruled was an intellectual disability that made him ineligible for capital punishment.

    But Salas is now presided over an ongoing lawsuit brought by Deutsche Bank investors who claim the company made false and misleading statements about its AML policies while failing to monitor “high-risk” customers like sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Since the arrest of Ghislaine Maxwell, public interest in all things Epstein has been revived.

    The FBI revealed last night that it will be spearheading the investigation into the slaying.

    Investigators said they’re looking into any connections to the Epstein/DB lawsuit, while also investigating any connections to her husband’s work as a criminal defense attorney.

    The FBI’s announcement was met with a sarcastic response by many on twitter.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The FBI says it’s looking for one suspect. The Marshals Service is also carrying out its own investigation, since the agency takes its responsibility to protect federal officials “very seriously”.

    So far, authorities have refused to confirm that the Epstein connection might have been a motive. A friend of the judge’s said Salas hadn’t received any threats recently.

    Salas, 51, was New Jersey’s first Hispanic woman to serve as a US district judge. She was nominated by Barack Obama in 2010, and confirmed by the Senate the following year.

  • What Did Comey Know And When Did He Know It?
    What Did Comey Know And When Did He Know It?

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 20:50

    Authored by Andrea Widburg via AmericanThinker.com,

    On March 20, 2017, then-FBI Director James Comey told Congress that the FBI was formally investigating whether there were contacts between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. We later learned that the alleged basis for this investigation was the Steele Dossier. Since then, we’ve also learned that the information in the Steele Dossier was fake.

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    The big question now is when did the FBI know that the whole investigation, which severely handicapped Trump’s first term, was baloney?

    The answer, based upon newly released documents from the Senate Judiciary Committee, is that by mid-February 2017 Comey knew or should have known that the Steele Dossier was a hoax perpetrated by the Hillary campaign.

    To go back a step, we know from Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s December 2019 report that the FBI relied upon the Steele Dossier both to spy on Carter Page and to investigate the  Trump campaign. The same report establishes that the FBI’s investigation revealed that Steele’s information came from a source who, in turn, got his information from yet another source. By March 20, when Comey announced that the FBI was looking into the Trump campaign, FBI agents on the ground had already stated that the primary source had no credibility.

    What the Horowitz Report did not address was when Comey personally learned about the credibility problem. Comey refused to cooperate with the IG investigation, so Horowitz glossed over Comey’s knowledge or lack thereof. One of the problems (see pp. 370-371 of the report) was that the FBI agents who interviewed the sub-source wrote documents falsely implying that he was reliable, even as their notes said otherwise.

    That confusion held Horowitz back from imputing knowledge to Comey. The two newly declassified documents, however, practically cry out that, when Comey announced the Trump investigation, he knew or should have known that it had no basis.

    The first document, which is heavily redacted, establishes that the primary source was not (as many speculated) a highly placed Russian. Contacts with the Kremlin would have militated in favor of believing him or her. But when the FBI identified Steele’s primary source, they found that he was not a Russian official, nor was he even based in Russia.  That should have been a huge red flag that there was a problem.

    The second document poses an even bigger problem for Comey. On February 14, 2017, the New York Times published an article entitled, “Trump Campaign Aides Had Repeated Contact With Russian Intelligence.” Peter Strzok, who headed the Trump investigation (aka Operation Crossfire Hurricane), read the article and made notes establishing that the FBI had no basis for investigating Trump. Sharyl Attkisson quoted the notes:

    Claim in NYT article: “Phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election, according to four current and former American officials.”

    Note by Strzok: “This statement is misleading and inaccurate as written. We have not seen evidence of any individuals in contact with Russians (both Governmental and non-Governmental)” and “There is no known intel affiliation, and little if any [government of Russia] affiliation[.] FBI investigation has shown past contact between [Trump campaign volunteer Carter] Page and the SVR [Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation], but not during his association with the Trump campaign.”

    [snip]

    Claim in NYT article: “Officials would not disclose many details, including what was discussed on the calls, and how many of Trump’s advisers were talking to the Russians.”

    Note by Strzok: “Again, we are unaware of ANY Trump advisers engaging in conversations with Russian intel officials” and “Our coverage has not revealed contact between Russian intelligence officers and the Trump team.”

    [snip]

    Claim by NYT: “Senior FBI officials believe … Christopher Steele … has a credible track record.”

    Note by Strzok: “Recent interviews and investigation, however, reveal Steele may not be in a position to judge the reliability of subsource network.”

    The FBI’s decision to investigate a duly elected president was arguably the most consequential investigation the FBI has ever undertaken. The man leading the investigation, who was only two levels below Director Comey, wrote notes that strongly imply that, five weeks before Comey announced the investigation (and after the FBI had engaged in months of intensive work), the FBI had nothing.

    These documents make it more likely than not that Comey knew that the investigation was baseless. If he did know, and he nevertheless continued the investigation and publicly announced it, thereby deliberately and severely damaging a duly elected president, what he did was nothing less than sedition.

    The fact that Comey still walks free is a troubling indication that it’s business as usual in the Swamp. When swamp rats who support Democrats break the law, they go free.

  • Top Shale Boss Warns US Production Won't Revisit 2019 Levels "In My Lifetime" 
    Top Shale Boss Warns US Production Won’t Revisit 2019 Levels “In My Lifetime” 

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 20:30

    America’s energy dominance could be coming to an end as the country’s shale industry is experiencing steep production declines. Rarely do we hear President Trump these days touting shale jobs and production output, mostly because the industry has entered a bust cycle.

    Matt Gallagher, CEO of Parsley Energy, a top 20 producer in Texas, spoke recently with the Financial Times and said crude output of 12 or 13 million barrels per day is over: 

    “I don’t think I’ll see 13m [barrels a day] again in my lifetime. 

    “It is really dejecting, because drilling our first well in 2009 we saw the wave of energy independence at our fingertips for the US, and it was very rewarding . . . to be a part of it,” Gallagher,37, said. 

    Us Crude Oil Production 

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    The shale bust of 2020 is an ominous sign of America’s energy dominance is over. Crude output will continue to wane this year and likely into next. The lack of shale profitability, mainly due to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices sub-$40 per barrel won’t be enough for highly indebted shale companies to survive.  

    We’ve pointed out the shale industry could be on the verge of destruction due to the sharp decline in demand and plummeting energy prices brought on by coronavirus pandemic. So far, bankruptcies in the shale patch are accelerating to levels not seen since the first half of 2016. 

    Another significant driver of lower production levels is a halving of rig counts due to collapsing price and demand; rigs dropped from 539 in mid-March to 258 last week.

    “Tight oil production will decline by 50% by this time next year. As a result, US oil production will fall from to less than eight mmb/d by mid-2021,” we noted via Arthur Berman via OilPrice.com.

    The combination of the Saudi-Russia oil price war and the virus pandemic has been nothing but disastrous for shale companies. These two factors forced Gallagher earlier this year to shut down wells and slash spending. 

    He said the recent oil-price crash was “hands down” the worst ever. In April, WTI prices dove below the zero mark for the first time in history due to oversupplied conditions triggered by virus-related lockdowns. 

    WTI May contracts dove into negative territory in April. 

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    Gallagher said car and air travel demand has slumped – which could result in oil production stabilizing around 11 million barrels per day. He said producers would focus on maintaining output, not increasing it.

    Gallagher concluded the interview by saying hundreds of thousands of jobs depend on the shale industry, adding that activity levels for the industry will be “dramatically lower for a long time.” 

    Slumping crude production is more bad news for the stock market… 

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    Contrary to Larry Kudlow’s constant touting of a “V-shaped” recovery – this is more bad news that deep economic scarring from the virus pandemic will result in years of high unemployment and sub-par economic growth. And it now appears shale has lost its energy dominance in the world. 

  • The Real Unemployment Rate Is 21%… And Heading Higher
    The Real Unemployment Rate Is 21%… And Heading Higher

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 20:10

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    As businesses, agencies and organizations recalibrate to the reality that the V-shaped recovery was nothing but a brief fantasy, 6 million additional jobs lost may be a best-case scenario rather than the worst-case scenario.

    It is somewhat less than reassuring that the “official” unemployment rate of around 12% is roughly half of the “real-world” unemployment rate. As always in the wonderful world of statistics, especially politically potent ones, it depends on what you measure, what you don’t measure / act as if it doesn’t exist, and how you measure what you do measure.

    Everyone who digs beneath the headline numbers of employment / unemployment soon discovers a number of jarring anomalies in what the media presents as “factual statistics.”

    The first is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) doesn’t actually count the number of people who are employed / unemployed; they rely on a sampling survey of employers, which is more like an election poll than an actual measurement.

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    Secondly, they estimate the number of new businesses which are “born” and existing businesses that “die”, and then guesstimate the number of additional employees this real-time churn generates. This birth/death model is notoriously inaccurate, as it ignores little things like pandemics and is often magically revised to create or eliminate hundreds of thousands of presumed jobs.

    State unemployment offices tabulate the number of unemployment claims received and processed. These are real numbers, not guesses like the BLS estimates. Wolf Richter prepared a chart of the real unemployment claims numbers which is reprinted below, from his post 32 Million People on State & Federal Unemployment, 2nd Highest Ever: Week 17 of U.S. Labor Market Collapse.

    The BLS reported that the U.S. employed workforce stood at about 152 million in February. With 32 million claiming unemployment, that’s an unemployment rate of 21%. How do we arrive at a 12% unemployment rate? We ignore the 14.3 million contract / gig workers who are currently drawing emergency Federal unemployment via Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA),and the 936,000 in the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) program.

    But even the 21% real-world unemployment rate doesn’t reflect the full unemployment picture: previously full-time workers who have had their hours cut to part-time aren’t counted in unemployment statistics, even though their employment status has changed for the worse. 

    Then there are the millions of workers who were recalled to work as businesses re-opened whose employment is up in the air as the expected return-to-normal has failed to materialize.

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    An entire class of workers has been glossed over: small business owners who have closed their businesses. Those owners who incorporated and paid unemployment insurance on themselves as employees of the corporation qualify for unemployment, but many small business owners didn’t pay themselves as employees, and their status is uncertain.

    Anecdotally, the number of small business owners who have decided to close in recent weeks appears to be significant, as the hoped-for V-shaped recovery failed to materialize even as states re-opened. This trend could gather momentum as hope decays into realistic assessment and funds borrowed from emergency federal programs (PPP) run out.

    The number of employees who will be laid off again as a rising flood of small businesses throw in the towel could quickly become consequential.

    Barring an immediate additional influsion of federal stimulus, local governments will also start laying off temp and contract workers as tax revenues continue their downward spiral.

    As Corporate America’s revenues falter, the only ways to reduce costs are 1) dump leases on commercial space and 2) lay off employees and 3) slash spending to the bone. All of these end up triggering layoffs.

    Could the number of unemployed rise to 38 million from 32 million, a 25% rate of unemployment? As businesses, agencies and organizations recalibrate to the reality that the V-shaped recovery was nothing but a brief fantasy, 6 million additional jobs lost may be a best-case scenario rather than a worst-case scenario.

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    *  *  *

    My recent books:

    Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World ($13)
    (Kindle $6.95, print $11.95) Read the first section for free (PDF).

    Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 (Kindle), $12 (print), $13.08 ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

    The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

    Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).

    *  *  *

    If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

  • Woman Who Refused To Wear Mask In Starbucks To Sue Barista For Half Of $100K GoFundMe
    Woman Who Refused To Wear Mask In Starbucks To Sue Barista For Half Of $100K GoFundMe

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 19:50

    A San Diego yoga instructor who refused to wear a mask in Starbucks says she plans to sue a barista who wouldn’t serve her.

    Amber Lynn Gilles took to Facebook earlier this month in a now-deleted entry, posting a photo of the barista, Lenin Gutierrez – complaining that he “refused to serve me cause I’m not wearing a mask. Next time I will wait for cops and bring a medical exemption.”

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    After Gilles’ post went viral, Orange County resident Matt Cowan started a GoFundMe – which received over $100,000 in donations.

    And Gilles wants half of it.

    “It was discrimination and everybody is OK with it and enabling and rewarding that behavior,” she said, adding that she has medical conditions which prevent her from wearing a mask. “One of them I get shortness of breath, dizziness and it messes with the heartbeat. And I do have asthma as well, and I do get mask-acne. So there’s several things going on and not only that but it doesn’t even work.”

    She provided KGTV with two documents to prove her medical exemption. One is a pelvic exam from 2015 with results that say “probable exophytic fibroid arising from the anterior wall of the uterus measuring 2.9 cm size,” and “simple 2.5 cm left ovarian cyst.” A second piece of paper is a handwritten note with letterhead from a San Diego chiropractor who she asked not be named. The handwritten note reads “Amber has underlying breath conditions that prevent her from wearing a mask or any type of facial covering whatsoever. Please contact me if have any questions.”

    When that chiropractor who wrote the note was called, he said he could not discuss her situation. When Gilles was asked why a chiropractor gave her a breathing-related medical exemption, she responded “because they are dedicated to providing non-invasive personalized care and treatment. They are real doctors.” –WTVR

    When asked if she wanted to apologize or had a message for the public, Gilles – who’s been labeled a “Karen,” said “No absolutely not. I feel like I need the apology. I’ve been discriminated against, I’m the one who’s sick.”

    Gilles says she’s too broke to sue right now, and has set up a GoFundMe to raise money for ‘expensive’ lawyers.

     

  • Another California Death Row Inmate Succumbs To COVID-19: Live Updates
    Another California Death Row Inmate Succumbs To COVID-19: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 19:43

    Summary:

    • Another California death row inmate dies of COVID
    • Texas sees another decline in hospitalizations
    • Broward County makes mask mandatory.
    • Gov Newsom expected to announce that more businesses can operate outdoors
    • California cases climb by less than 7-day average
    • Controversy over ‘Pandemic Pods’ flares
    • NJ Gov says schools will reopen in September
    • Houston ICU census hits 2-week low
    • Arizona cases fall for 3rd day
    • Florida deaths top 5,000
    • NYC begins Phase 4 reopening
    • Cuomo warns about risks to reopening as NYC enters Phase 4
    • Stocks turn red despite Oxford-AZ vaccine data
    • Scientists warn of 2nd wave in Sweden as COVID-19 deaths dwindle
    • India suffers 40k+ new COVID cases in new record
    • Global death toll tops 600k
    • Cases top 14.5 million
    • China reports 16 new cases
    • Victoria outbreak could take “weeks” to subside
    • Pfizer reports incremental vaccine results
    • Tokyo confirms 168 new infections

    * * *

    Update (1930ET): California’s state prison system has just suffered the second death of a death row inmate via coronavirus. The rash of deaths come as the federal government is moving ahead with executions after a lengthy delay.

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    Troy Ashmus

    A local TV station reported that the inmate, Troy Ashmus, was the 7th death row prisoner and 12th prisoner overall to die from the virus at California’s infamous San Quentin prison.

    A death row inmate arrested in Sacramento County in the 1980s has died of complications believed to have stemmed from COVID-19, officials said Monday.

    Troy Ashmus, 58, was the seventh death row prisoner and the 12th overall at San Quentin to die from confirmed or suspected COVID-19 infections.

    Ashmus was sent to death row in 1986. He was convicted of raping 7-year-old Marcella Davis, who had biked to a Sacramento park in May 1984. The girl also was sodomized before plastic bags, cellophane and the girl’s own shorts were shoved down her throat, prosecutors said.

    The coroner has yet to determine an exact cause of death.

    There are currently 718 people on California’s death row. There have been nearly 7,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases among inmates in the state prison system, including more than 2,000 active cases and 39 confirmed deaths, according to state figures.

    Dozens of inmates are hospitalized, some of them in intensive care.

    More than 800 employees also have active cases of COVID-19, according to corrections officials.

    We imagine the families of these inmates will have a case when this is all over.

    * * *

    Update (1700ET): Texas coronavirus cases increased by 7,404 on Monday (vs. +7,300 on Sunday), while the state reported another 62 deaths (from +93 yesterday). Hospitalizations declined by 23 (vs. -66 yesterday), according to the State Health Department. Earlier, data released by TMC showed occupied ICU beds in Houston decline to their lowest level in 2 weeks.

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    The state has confirmed 4,020 deaths (roughly 1,000 fewer than Florida) and 332,434 cases.

    * * *

    Update (1600ET): Broward County, which is among the worst hit in Florida after Miami-Dade, has just made wearing masks mandatory.

    EmergencyOrder20-22 by Zerohedge on Scribd

     

    One of the most shocking provisions in the executive order is that residents are responsible for ensuring that guests in their homes follow guidelines. So, if a Broward County resident is having guests over, they will be legally required to wear their masks in the house, and anywhere else on the property where the rules might apply.

    This comes as the county sheriff says he is stepping up enforcement of house parties and other gatherings that might violate social distancing rules.

    * * *

    Update (1500ET): California Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to announce plans to allow more industries – like nail salons – to reopen for outdoors operations only.

    Newsom is expected to make an announcement on changes to the beauty industry, sources tell ABC7. He will likely announce that some industries, such as hair salons and nail salons, will be allowed to operate outdoors, according to sources. Some salon and beauty workers have been asking the governor to change the rules and allow outdoor operations, so they can start working again during the pandemic.

    * * *

    Update (1430ET): California’s total COVID-19 case count hit 391,538 cases on Monday (all numbers reported with a 24-hour delay), up 6,846 (+1.8%) from the prior day. That’s well below the 7-day average of 2.7%, just the latest sign that the Sun Belt peak has passed.

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    It’s just the latest sign that the peak has passed, although officials will remain on high alert, looking for any excuse to shut it all down once more.

    * * *

    Update (1350ET): In keeping with its newfound focus on “social justice”, CNBC on Monday dedicated a chunk of its afternoon programming to the issue “Pandemic Pods” in the Bay Area. If this is a new concept for you, allow us to explain: ‘Pandemic Pods’ are groups of families who hire private teachers to school their children at home using the tools provided by schools districts.

    CNBC warned that the big concern with ‘pandemic pods’ is that they could create ‘an exodus’ of wealthier Bay Area kids from Bay Area public schools. It’s a “social justice” issue, the reporter assured their audience, since these private tutors charge as much as $50 an hour for 1 child, plus an additional $5 per additional child.

    Blue checks have been complaining about the Pandemic Pods (something that only a very small number of region’s uber-wealthy are even considering, we imagine). But wouldn’t keeping more students at home in private ‘pods’ free up more public resources for other families? CNBC never really got around to addressing the hows and whys of the “inequality” question, beyond merely insisting that this would be bad because rich people can afford it, and the poors can’t.

    * * *

    Update (1226ET): NJ Gov Phil Murphy confirmed that schools in the state will reopen in the fall, although he will allow parents to opt in to all distance learning.

    The state saw just 9 deaths over the last 24 hours.

    While the rate of transmission in the state dipped back below 1.

    And hospitalizations continue to fall.

    * * *

    Update (1212ET): Houston has seen hospitalizations fall to their lowest level in 2 weeks, plunging 18% to just 811 ICU patients in the Greater Houston Area. So far, the area has suffered only 535 deaths, along with 55,769 new cases.

    • HOUSTON-AREA VIRUS ICU CENSUS PLUNGES 18% TO TWO-WEEK LOW OF 811

    Houston saw fewer than 1,000 newly confirmed cases yesterday.

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    Meanwhile, Texas Medical Center’s projections suggest that Texas and Houston has already passed peak hospitalization and ICU levels.

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    Source: TMC

    It’s just the latest sign that the surge in deaths that experts like Dr. Fauci have predicted may not come to pass, and that President Trump’s push to reopen schools in the fall just might pan out.

    * * *

    Update (1150ET): As fears of a COVID-19 resurgence prompt even the states that successfully managed to suppress the outbreak to reimpose certain restrictions, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot just announced on Monday that bars and restaurants in the city won’t be allowed to serve alcohol indoors starting Friday.

    The city is also planning to limit indoor fitness classes to a maximum of 10 people, while barring treatments like shaves and facials, which require patrons to beauty salons to remove their masks.

    The news was delivered abruptly via a press release published by the mayor’s office after Lightfoot stopped speaking during an unrelated press briefing. Lightfoot has warned that she wouldn’t hesitate to roll back restrictions if there is a spike in cases. Fearing a spike linked to bars, Chicago was slow to allow them to reopen. Now, many establishments in the Windy City will be effectively forced to close down once again.

    Gov Pritzker praised Lightfoot’s decision, and a similar decision made by the mayor of Springfield.

    Lightfoot blamed an uptick in new cases in Chicago for the decision.

    * * *

    Update (1135ET): For the 3rd straight day, Arizona reported fewer new COVID-19 cases than the prior 24-hour period, with 1,559 (+1.1%) new cases reported. It brought the statewide total to 145,183. That’s the lowest daily total since June 29.

    The state reported just 23 new deaths, bringing its death toll to 2,784 deaths. Maricopa County, home of Phoenix, the state’s capital and biggest city.

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    And iCU capacity moved lower to 87%.

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    Meanwhile, AstraZeneca Executive VP Mene Pangalos told CNBC’s Meg Tirrell that protection from the AZ-Oxford candidate will last for “hopefully a year”.

    The company also plans to test two-dose regimen during the Phase 3 vaccine trials. To be safe, they plan to use two doses per patient, which could create complications in terms of supply.

     

     

     

    * * *

    Update (1100ET): Stocks shot into the green earlier after the release of Phase 1/2 trial data in the Lancet earlier showed that one of the most hyped up vaccine candidates appeared to be safe for human consumption.

    However, as that rally fades and both AstraZeneca shares and the broader market slump back into the red, analysts are pointing to one important detail of the study results: the fact that responses were strongest after a booster dose.

    If a patient needs two doses of a vaccine for it to be effective, than it will take twice as long to produce and distribute to the population.

    “We saw the strongest immune response in the 10 participants who received two doses of the vaccine, indicating that this might be a good strategy for vaccination,” Professor Pollard said.

    Read more on that here.

    In other news, Florida and New York kicked off Monday’s big numbers. On Monday, Florida reported 10,508 new cases and 92 newly reported deaths, marking the sixth straight day with more than 10k new cases. Of all the tests counted over the past 24 hours, 14.74% of them came back positive, which is still well below Florida’s peak north of 20% (all these COVID-19 data are reported with a 24 hour delay).
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    The new deaths reported Monday pushed Florida’s total north of 5,000 to 5,072. The state has also counted 360,394 infections, still rough;y 70k shy of New York’s 411k+ total. New York has also reported more than 30k deaths. Monday’s data follow a new weekly record for cases, deaths and tests in Florida that was cemented on Sunday. Statewide, 740 virus deaths were reported from Sunday to Sunday, compared with 511 the prior week. 

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    As Florida and Texas draw nearer to NY’s COVID-19 case total, the two states have logged only 1/10th the death rate of NY.

    How come we haven’t seen more reporting on what Fla and Texas did to keep the mortality rate low? We suspect it has something to do with the fact that they didn’t explicitly ask hospitals to send COVID-19 positive patients back to nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

    Meanwhile, NYC entered ‘Phase 4’ reopening on Monday with Gov Andrew Cuomo warning that he wouldn’t hesitate to roll back the reopening if cases start to climb once again. Any rule-breaking “has to stop” Cuomo said, as he threatened to revive the lockdown if compliance doesn’t improve.

    He also shared the latest NY numbers.

    * * *

    Update (0930ET): Sweden’s approach to tackling the virus has become a major topic of COVID-19-related discussion as more skeptics argue that the country’s approach to tackling the virus – which never involved lockdowns – shouldn’t be written off solely because it tracked higher mortality rates than several of its neighbors.

    While Sweden’s high (relatively speaking) mortality rate figures heavily into these criticisms, the truth is Sweden has reported fewer deaths per million than several of the worst-hit countries in Western Europe, including the UK, Spain, Italy and Belgium, all of which adopted strict lockdowns to combat the virus.

    1. Belgium: 858
    2. UK: 681
    3. Spain 608
    4. Italy: 580
    5. Sweden: 552
    6. Chile: 454
    7. France 449
    8. US: 429
    9. Peru: 412
    10. Brazil: 379

    Goldman once claimed that Sweden’s success was largely attributable to cultural factors, like the fact that most Swedes obeyed the government’s social distancing guidance.

    CBS News traveled to Stockholm recently and found that, despite the worrying statistics, most Swedes still back the public health agency’s approach.

    “I think the people are taking their responsibility to social distance, so I am fine,” said Stockholm resident Mia Soderberg.  “I am glad…because I think people are in better shape mentally, because we’ve been able to go out.”

    Though, to be sure, Sweden’s neighbors have punished Swedes by imposing travel bans that prohibit Swedes from crossing over the border.

    But while herd immunity remains a ways off, according to Sweden’s top virologist, the country’s efforts to safeguard nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have caused deaths to drop precipitously.

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    Although Sweden never locked down, and never mandated masks, the country is for the most part finished with the outbreak. Deaths and new cases have dwindled, as critics of the country’s approach continue to warn about the possibility of a dangerous second wave. Although the country is reporting daily deaths in the teens, CBS News warned that in a month or so, when the summer ends, millions of Swedes will head back inside, triggering the start of a whole new wave of the pandemic.

    * * *

    Globally, the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths surpassed 600,000 on Monday, while the number of confirmed cases topped 14.5 million over the weekend.

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    The world saw two consecutive daily record tallies over the weekend, as the pandemic continues to intensify in the US, India, Brazil and elsewhere.

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    In the US, daily deaths saw a promising pullback yesterday.

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    As deaths and hospitalizations creeped higher over the weekend and last week, the number of new cases in the four worst-hit states have climbed. Most notably, Texas reported a promising slowdown just last night, even as LA Mayor Eric Garcetti warns that his city is on the verge of another shutdown.

    For the first time, India reported more than 40k new cases of COVID-19 on Monday, a new daily record. Exactly 40,425 cases were reported on Monday, which brought the total in the world’s second-most-populous country to more than 1.1 million. The number of confirmed deaths has climbed to 27,497, up 681 since Sunday morning.

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    In Japan, Tokyo confirmed 168 new infections, according to Nikkei, down from 188 a day earlier. Tokyo’s metropolitan government raised its COVID-19 alert to the highest level out of four last week, and has urged workers who can to stay home. In South Korea, 26 new cases were confirmed on Monday, down from 34 a day ago. Total infections reached 13,771, with 296 deaths.

    After suffering more than 100 new cases in a day – a new record – over the weekend, Hong Kong reported just 73 new coronavirus cases on Monday, including 66 that were locally transmitted, as sweeping new restrictions imposed by Chief Executive Carrie Lam took effect.

    The city reported more than 100 cases on Sunday, a record, as Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced that nonessential civil servants must work from home.

    Melbourne’s surge in COVID-19 cases over the past month could take “weeks” to subside despite a lockdown and other social distancing measures, according to Australia’s acting chief medical officer. Victoria state, where Melbourne is located, reported a daily record on Friday with 438 new cases. Numbers have cooled slightly since then. People in Melbourne must wear masks when leaving their homes, and could be fined $200 Australian dollars ($140) if they are caught outside without one.

    Mainland China reported 16 new cases of the novel coronavirus as of the end of July 18, up from 22 a day earlier. Of these new infections, 13 tested positive in Urumqi, the capital of China’s far western region of Xinjiang region, which assumed a “warlike posture” over the weekend as new cases surged.

    As the world awaits the results of the Oxford University-Astrazeneca trial, which is expected to be published by the Lancet, a medical journal known for its early work on SARS-CoV-2, later on Monday. Pfizer reported some early results Monday morning, including the first T-cell response data.

    • PFIZER INC – T CELL CYTOKINE PROFILE SHOWS VACCINE ELICITED T CELLS EXHIBIT A TH1 PHENOTYPE, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANTIVIRAL PROPERTIES
    • PFIZER – BNT162B1 INDUCED ANTIBODIES HAD BROADLY NEUTRALIZING ACTIVITY IN PSEUDOVIRUS NEUTRALIZATION ASSAYS ACROSS PANEL OF 16 SARS-COV-2 RBD VARIANTS

    The data “supports and expands” on previously published results, marking the news as largely incremental.

    Meanwhile, earlier, Scott Gottlieb focused his daily commentary on CNBC on the lessons we’ve learned about pandemic preparedness, repudiating the narrative pressed by Democrats who have blamed Trump for ‘dismantling’ an Obama-era preparedness office.

  • Universities Nationwide Promote Mental Health App To Treat "Anxiety Over Racism"
    Universities Nationwide Promote Mental Health App To Treat “Anxiety Over Racism”

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 19:30

    Authored by Maria Copeland via Campus Reform,

    A mental health app circulated by colleges recommends allying with efforts toward antiracism for users with anxiety. 

    Sanvello, a service marketed as the “#1 app for stress, anxiety, and depression with over 3 million users,” offers therapies for dealing with mental health stress, including tools for coaching, peer support, and self-care. Users receive premium access to the app free of charge for the duration of the pandemic.

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    The website for the app recently published a blog article titled “Anxiety over racism: A path towards peace” which encourages readers to work through their anxiety and choose to be active against racism, in a piece listed under the same category as articles providing tips for managing anxiety attacks and handling flight anxiety

    “If you’re white, approaching the process of unraveling racism may seem foreboding, yet discomfort (and there will be some) does not dismiss the necessity of the work,” author Roxane Battle writes.

    “To be sure, there will be bumps in the road ahead. Mistakes will be made. But the fear of saying the wrong thing or not getting it exactly right should not deter. It’s part of the process. As many a scraped knee can attest, we have to keep climbing back on [the] bike until we all learn to ride.”

    Allyship, Battle writes, “is a pathway forward, a path towards peace.”

    The Sanvello app has been endorsed by universities across America. 

    The University of Missouri-St. Louis promoted Sanvello as a resource for dealing with stressful situations. 

    “It helps people gain more mindfulness around their mental health and well-being,” the associate vice provost for Student Affairs at UMSL commented.

    “The great thing is that it’s customizable and really specific to different circumstances. Before you give a presentation in class, you can listen to a 10-minute meditation on being mindful about how you’re going to present yourself. There’s also one for flying. People can gain some valuable skills if they get into the app and really immerse themselves in it.”

    Pepperdine University and Southwest Tennessee Community College advertise Sanvello in conjunction with other COVID-19 resources, while Brigham Young University,  Syracuse UniversityTexas A&M University, the University of Maine-Machias, the University of Missouri System, and the University of Washington-Seattle recommend Sanvello as part of their student wellness services. 

    When discussing an initiative to improve mental health resources for students at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, co-chair Kathryn Brewer said the university was seeking to update its services and develop new strategies — which specifically included the addition of Sanvello. 

    “These initiatives will save lives,” Brewer said.

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Today’s News 20th July 2020

  • Continental Shift: The World's Biggest Economies Over Time
    Continental Shift: The World’s Biggest Economies Over Time

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 02:45

    According to data from the World Bank and IMF, Asian countries are expected to make up most of the top 5 countries in the world by size of GDP in 2024, thus, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz points out, relegating European economic powerhouses to lower ranks.

    China’s economic growth has been steep since the 1990s, while India and Indonesia have even more recently entered the top 10 of the biggest economies in the world and are expected to reach ranks 3 and 5 by 2024. Japan, an established economy, is expected to cling on to rank 4 in 2024, while Russia will rise to rank 6.

    Infographic: Continental Shift: The World’s Biggest Economies Over Time | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Asia’s burgeoning middle class is one of the reasons for the continental shift in GDP. While China has been the posterchild of market growth in the 21st century so far, the country is expected to tackle an ageing population further down the line, which will put a damper on consumption. Indonesia, together with the Philippines and Malaysia, are expected to grow their labor forces significantly in the years to come, contributing to a rise in average disposable incomes, according to the World Economic Forum.

    Asian multinationals, like China’s Huawei and India’s Tata, have already emerged in this century and more are expected to appear on the global scene. But rapid growth in Asia also comes with its own set of problems, like a quickly growing divide between rural and urban incomes, environmental degradation and new challenges for governance and institutions, according to the FAO.

  • How NATO-Member Turkey Reverted Back To Being An Islamic Dictatorship
    How NATO-Member Turkey Reverted Back To Being An Islamic Dictatorship

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/20/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The gradual process of Turkey’s becoming an Islamic sharia-law country, again, is no longer so gradual. It has taken a sudden and sharp rightward turn, into Islamic-nationhood. Turkey’s Hagia Sophia, which had been “the world’s largest cathedral for nearly a thousand years, until Seville Cathedral was completed in 1520,” has now been officially declared by the Turkish Government to be, instead, a mosque.

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    On July 10th, the BBC bannered “Hagia Sophia: Turkey turns iconic Istanbul museum into mosque” and reported that the biggest, oldest, and the most important, cathedral in all of Orthodox Christendom — and the world’s most important Byzantine building, which was constructed as the Saint Sophia Cathedral by the Byzantine Roman Emperor Justinian I in Constantinople (now Istanbul) in the year 537, and which stands on the site that had been consecrated in the year 325 by the Roman Emperor Constantine (and which cathedral was relabelled the Hagia Sophia “museum” in 1935 by Turkey’s Constitutionally secularist Government) — has now become, officially, at last, designated, by the restored Islamic Government of Turkey, a Muslim house of worship, a mosque, a Muslim house of worship.

    This signals the end of Turkey’s being ruled by a secular Government, which it had been, ever since 1923. It is the end of Turkey’s secular Government and the restoration of the Islamic Mehmed the Conqueror’s 1453 order that it be a mosque. That ended the Byzantine Roman Catholic Empire, and started Islamic-ruled Turkey. It ended Constantinople and started Istanbul. Mehmet, however, allowed Christianity to continue, in the Islamic Ottoman Empire, but only as an accepted part of the Greek East (“Orthodox”), not as part of the Roman West (imperialistic), Christianity (which he had just then conquered with the fall of Constantinople on that same date, 29 May 1453). And now, even the Orthodox Christians are being marginalized in Turkey, because the Hagia Sophia had been “for almost 1,000 years the most important Orthodox cathedral.”

    This is an act with huge international implications. It is an important event in human history.

    Turkey’s strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose entire actual education was only in Islamic schools though he lies about it and claims to have received a degree from a non-Islamic university, is in the process of transforming Turkey back again into a specifically Islamic type of dictatorship, a Sharia-law-ruled state. The secularist Turkish Republic that was instituted in 1923 by the Enlightenment-inspired Kemal Attaturk has now decisively ended. The widespread speculations that Erdogan has been aiming to restore Turkey to being the imperial nation and ruler of a restored Islamic Ottoman Empire are now decisively confirmed by this brazen act of insult to Orthodox Christians, and even to Roman Christians, because — as Wikipedia notes — “Justinian has sometimes been known as the ‘Last Roman’ in mid-20th century historiography.” The Orthodox Church in America titles him as “Saint Justinian The Emperor”. However, Wikipedia also notes that Constantine XI Palaiologos, who was killed by Mehmet’s forces on that date, 29 May 1453, was actually the last Roman Emperor. That ended the Roman Empire.

    In other words: the Turkish Government’s official change of Saint Sophia Cathedral, which Justinian had created in 537, into now and henceforth a mosque, is a taking ownership of, and a Turkish-Muslim declaration of supremacy over, a different religion’s main house of worship. It’s a historical dagger into the heart of Orthodox Christianity, as well as being an insult to Roman Christianity.

    This is not merely an isolated act, either; it is, instead, something to which Erdogan has long been building. Erdogan’s grab of land from secularist-ruled (committedly anti-sectarian) Syria, and his recent sending of troops to help conquer the formerly secularist Libya, which land had been turned into a hellish civil war by a U.S.-and-allied invasion in 2011 and which chaos there continues to this day, all are consistent with an understanding of Erdogan in which his foremost objective is a restoration of the Ottoman Empire. And the U.S. Government has supported this objective of his (but only as Turkey being a branch of the U.S. empire), and tried to get the EU to accept it.

    The question now — since the United States Government has been pushing against European resistance to accepting a military alliance with an Islamic dictatorship — is whether continuation of the NATO alliance will be ended because of the path that Erdogan and the United States Government have jointly been taking to re-impose a decidedly Sunni Islamic dictatorship upon Turkey (by means of which, Turkey will serve as a wedge against both Shiite controlled Iran, and an increasingly Orthodox-dominated Russia). However, there has been a split between Erdogan and the U.S. regime, because he does not intend his restored Ottoman empire to be a part of the U.S. or any other empire. Erdogan’s independent streak is what now threatens to break-up the Western Alliance — the U.S. empire (which is actually the Rhodesist UK-U.S. empire).

    The United States Government has been preferring Erdogan’s former political partner but now enemy, Erdogan’s fellow Sunni Islamist Fethullah Gulen, who cooperates with the U.S. and is a CIA protégé (including rabidly against Shiite Iran and against Iran’s main ally Russia). Gulen is passionately endorsed by America’s aristocracy. The U.S. regime has been preferring Gulen to impose this transformation of Turkey into an Islamic U.S. satellite, because Gulen models his operation (and he has even described it in remarkable detail) upon U.S. and UK ‘intelligence’ practices (CIA & MI6), whereas Erdogan has insisted upon an independent Turkey with its own nationalistic ‘intelligence’ organization — a nationalistically transformed version of Turkey’s existing MIT or National Intelligence Organization — an ‘intelligence’ organization that’s cleansed of what the CIA praises as “Gulen is interested in slow and deep social change, including secular higher education; Erdogan as a party leader is first and foremost interested in preserving his party’s power, operating in a populist manner, trying to raise the general welfare.” (The CIA actually knows that this has nothing whatsoever to do with “trying to raise the general welfare” — the U.S. regime’s goal is to extend everywhere the U.S. empire, and Erdogan’s Turkish regime has that same goal for the Turkish empire, which doesn’t yet even exist, though it once did as the Ottoman Empire, and he wants to restore it.) Erdogan insists upon Turkey’s not being merely a vassal-state or colony within a foreign-led empire, but instead the leading nation of its own empire, starting perhaps with gobbling up Syria and Libya, but extending ultimately more globally. There is a soundly documented article titled “Why Are Gulenists Hostile Toward Iran?” and it provides much of the reason why the CIA supports Gulen (they do largely because Erdogan isn’t so obsessive against Iran — which country America’s aristocracy crave to conquer again, as they had done in 1953, and Erdogan doesn’t support that as passionately as they require).

    The question now for Europe is whether it wants to be again a participant in various aristocracies’, and clergies’, imperialistic designs, or instead to declare itself finally non-aligned and to lead thereby a new global non-aligned movement, not militaristically, but instead by providing, to the entire world, an anti-imperialistic and truly democratic model, a re-start and replacement of today’s United Nations, and one that will reflect what had been Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s anti-imperialist intention, and not Harry S. Truman’s American-imperialist intention — a start from scratch that has FDR’s statements to guide it, and not Truman’s actions to guide it (such as has been the case). Perhaps even the U.S., NYC-based, U.N. would ultimately sign onto that new international global federation; but the only basis upon which nations in the old U.N. should be accepted into its successor would be if the old U.N. were gradually to dissolve itself as its individual nations would, each on its own, sign onto the new one. Ultimately, this option must be made available to all Governments, to choose to either continue in Truman’s U.N., or else join instead a new, and authentically FDR-based, authentically anti-imperialistic, replacement of it.

    That is what this dictatorial Islamization of Turkey is really all about, and only Europe can make the decision — no other land can. However, such a decision will only fail if any such organization as a new U.N. is to be at all involved in the particular national issues that now are so clearly coming to the fore in the transformation of Turkey into a Sunni Islamist dictatorship.

    The “international community” should have no say in Turkey’s intranational (or “domestic”) affairs — regardless of whether Turkey is in or out of Europe. Sectarian and nationalistic concerns cannot rule in the formation of any authentically democratic new international order — an authentically non-imperialistic international order. All such concerns, domestic concerns, must be strictly the domain of the authority and power of each one of the individual constituent units, each individual national Government itself controlling its own internal affairs. FDR was adamant about that. He was insistent that the U.N. not get involved in individual nations’ internal affairs. The profoundly anti-FDR, “Responsibility to Protect” idea (which now has even acquired the status of being represented by an acronym “R2P” catch-phrase), has increasingly arisen recently to become a guiding principle of international relations, and must be soundly and uncompromisingly rejected in the formulation and formation of any replacement-organization — any authentically democratic international federation of nations. Otherwise, everything would be futile, and there will be a WWIII. We are heading in exactly the opposite direction from that which FDR had intended — which was to prevent any Third World War.

    This decision will be made by the individual nations of Europe. Only they collectively hold this power. They will be able to exercise it only if they will terminate their alliances outside of Europe, and proceed forward no longer bound by external alliances, but instead become a free and independent European federation of European states. Only they, collectively, will be able to make this decision, as Europeans, for the entire world, regarding what the world’s future will be. And only they will hold the ultimate responsibility — and it’s NOT the “responsibility to protect”. It is instead the responsibility to protect the future of the entire world. It’s the responsibility to protect a future for the world. And if Europe fails it, then the world will inevitably move forward to WWIII, as it is doing. A new international order is needed, and only Europe can lead it, if Europe will.

    In order for Europe to do that, Europe must first define itself. Is Turkey part of Europe? Is Russia? What is Europe? If Europeans won’t be able to agree on that, then the world will continue to move forward towards WWIII, because the world will then have no center, it will continue to have only contending empires — exactly what FDR had aimed to prevent.

    Europe is the key. But will Europe’s leaders place the key in the lock, and open, finally, the door to a non-imperialistic world? The present, U.S.-empire-aligned, Europe, won’t do that. Turkey’s action on the Hagia Sophia, which is an insult to all Christians, and especially to Orthodox ones, might finally force the issue — and its solution.

    Other than that, however, the official designation of the Hagia Sophia as being a mosque is entirely a domestic, Turkish, matter.

  • Media Mask-Mania, Or COVID-19 Groupthink
    Media Mask-Mania, Or COVID-19 Groupthink

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Michael Lesher via Off-Guardian.org,

    I never thought I’d see the day when publicly wearing a muzzle would constitute a proof of virtue in the same country whose government, less than twenty years ago, rationalized the bloody invasion of Afghanistan as a way of saving women from veiling their faces.

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    But then, I never thought I’d hear American liberals proudly denounce supporters of the US Constitution as a “death cult,” nor that I’d actually start to find Donald Trump sounding almost reasonable.

    But at least there’s one thing we can all be sure about: “mainstream” news media, busily cheerleading for the death of freedom, will continue to gush with absurdities, self-contradictions and victim-shaming memes in their propaganda war to Keep America Gagged. The Bill of Rights (in case you haven’t noticed) is history; today, we demonstrate our patriotism by creeping around hiding our faces. Dissenters need not apply.

    If you think I’m exaggerating, I suspect you haven’t been paying attention. Recently I had the poor judgment to turn on National Public Radio for about an hour, under the impression that I was going to learn something about the day’s news.

    I could have saved myself the trouble. During the hour in question, I learned nothing at all about the presidential election campaign (now in its final months), nothing about the tens of millions of my fellow citizens whose jobs have been snatched away by government fiat, nothing about climate change, nuclear arms buildups, international refugees or growing worldwide poverty – nothing even about the intensification of air and water pollution authorized by recent federal regulation, although pollution kills an estimated 100,000 Americans every year.

    No – for a solid hour, I heard the following: that COVID19 – in reality, at most, a moderately serious flu virus – is the worst medical threat the United States has ever faced; that this “deadly” virus (the word “deadly” was repeated obsessively, even though the disease is fatal in a tiny percentage of cases) has been empowered by a conspiracy of Republican politicians serving the arch-demon Donald Trump; that recent data showing the rapid decline in deaths attributable to the virus may have been faked, because the numbers aren’t what the “experts” want them to be; and that a massive increase in COVID19 tests – primarily among people between 20 and 40 years of age who are subjected to swabbing because their employers demand it, not because they’re in any danger – cannot possibly have anything to do with a rise in the number of reported infections, and that anyone who dares to suggest otherwise is “putting lives at risk.”

    But the real theme of the hour was masks, masks, masks: how to make them, how to wear them, their different types, who doesn’t seem to have enough of them, and why muffling our faces (even though no such thing was ever demanded of us during dozens of past viral outbreaks) is absolutely, positively good for us all.

    I waited in vain for some mention of the fact that every single order requiring the wearing of muzzles in the US is probably unconstitutional, a matter that National Public Radio – which once prided itself on its legal affairs reporting – might have been expected to care about.

    Nor did anyone mention that just a few months ago, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention was explicitly advising against a general mask-wearing regime, as was Anthony Fauci, the High Priest of COVID19.

    No, facts would only have complicated matters. After all, we already knew what good little boys and girls were expected to do with those muzzles. At the close of each weather forecast, just in case anyone had missed the point, the reporter said cheerily, “And when you go out – put on a mask.” “And drink milk with every meal,” I half expected him to add, but I guess self-conscious condescension would have spoiled the effect.

    Put on a mask.

    In well over half a century, I cannot remember a weather report that ended with a brisk piece of non-meteorological advice, let alone a patently silly one – after all, if these magical masks were to make any difference, their greatest usefulness would have been at the beginning of the outbreak, not on its heels.

    Yet throughout March, while police-state fever prompted the suspension of democracy in some 40 states and most of the US population was being hustled into virtual house arrest, the pro-incarceration crowd’s loudest voices unanimously insisted that masks were of no practical value.

    For anyone who has forgotten, Fauci told 60 Minutes that:

    [t]here’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think it is. And often there are unintended consequences – people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.”

    That was how things stood when the epidemic was new and all stops were out. And now? Contemplating the lockdown-lovers’ belated fetish for surgical gear, one can only imagine the US Navy ceremoniously issuing an air-raid warning at Pearl Harbor a hundred days or so after the Japanese attack had wiped out much of the fleet.

    But you’ve got to hand it to the mask-maniacs. No matter how many of their excuses for muzzling the population go the way of the Great Auk, they keep the new ones tumbling out so fast you can hardly keep track.

    Here’s one peddled on July 14 in the Los Angeles Times: even though the masks won’t really prevent infection, they may reduce the amount of the virus you breathe in – that is, just in case you happen to come across an infected person who somehow manages to breathe into your (masked) face from a very short distance and for an extended period. (No one cited in the article bothers to discuss how often such a scenario is likely to occur.) According to a Dr. Monica Gandhi:

    [t]here is this theory that facial masking reduces…disease severity.”

    In other words, you’ll get COVID19 with or without a mask, but the effects will probably be milder if you muffle your face.

    But wait a minute – even if “this theory” is correct (note that it contradicts everything the propagandists have been telling us about masks for the last three months), wasn’t it always the case that the overwhelming majority of those who catch COVID19 have very mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all?

    So what’s the big advantage of the mask? The article is silent on that point – and Dr. Gandhi herself ultimately admits that her “theory” remains unproven. But that doesn’t stop the Times from lambasting a few local California officials who have raised inconvenient questions about mandatory muzzling.

    “This anti-mask rhetoric is mind-blowing, dangerous, deadly and polarizing,” the article quotes Dr. Peter Chin-Hong as responding. Why? Because masks prevent infection? No. Because they save lives? No. Criticizing the muzzle mandate is “deadly” because – wait for it – because:

    [t]here is no evidence that [wearing a mask] is dangerous.”

    Well, actually, there is such evidence; Anthony Fauci admitted as much to 60 Minutes in March.

    But the main problem with this retort is that it misses the point: people are being forced to mask their faces in public without any evidence that it’s dangerous not to.

    Dr. Chin-Hong’s implicit confession that this is so knocks the stuffing out of the mandate – and the Times’ rationale. But to say so openly is “dangerous, deadly [there’s that favorite adjective again] and polarizing.” It’s no accident that the symbol of submission currently in vogue is one that covers the mouth. The real message of the mask-maniacs is that we have no right to say what we think.

    And speaking of “polarizing,” what about the personal viciousness to which mask-mania so frequently descends? I have lost track of the number of videos circulated by so-called news outlets that depict frustrated shoppers losing their cool over being forced to dress like mummies.

    Apparently this is supposed to be cute – as in, “Get a load of that stupid, Trump-supporting bitch having a public meltdown.” Myself, I feel sorry for these people; I share their exasperation, and I empathize with them over the invasion of their privacy.

    As for the propagandists who peddle Schadenfreude in support of governors-turned-dictators – I indict them as heartless hypocrites, who claim to value our collective welfare and prove it by publicly humiliating their victims. Would they take similar pleasure, I wonder, in mocking the reaction of a black shopper who’d just been called “nigger”?

    And it gets worse. In the upside-down world of COVID19 media values, even death is no protection from victim-shaming. Recently, American news organizations “reported” the death of an Ohio man who had the misfortune to die on July 4 of what they gleefully called “complications of COVID-19.”

    More than two months earlier, the victim had posted a comment on social media saying he wasn’t going to “buy a mask.” The articles – which even named the deceased (a combat veteran) – practically salivated over the fact that he had had the audacity to go to a swimming pool in mid-June, where he may have contracted the virus. You see? screamed the reporters’ moralizing subtext. The maskless, self-indulgent right-wing bastard got what he deserved!

    Just for the record, let me note that there are a number of things we don’t know. We don’t know whether the poor man actually wore a mask or not. (He wrote in late April that he didn’t intend to buy one, but that’s really not the same thing.) We don’t know how he actually caught the virus. We don’t know whether he could have been saved with better treatment; it’s even possible he waited too long to seek medical help.

    Given his youth and the apparently lightning pace of his descent into serious illness, his death from COVID19 is so highly unusual that its medical significance amounts to another thing we don’t know.

    Most important, we don’t know whether wearing or not wearing a mask had anything at all to do with his death. (If he was infected while at a swimming pool, I doubt even the mask-maniacs would insist that he should have worn it in the water.)

    What we do know is that he was targeted for savage personal attacks after he died, first on social media and now in the press.

    “[P]eople have come out of the woodworks, posting nasty, hateful comments about a man they knew nothing about,” one of his friends has said. “Most of it crossed the line into harassment. When reported to Facebook, nothing was taken down nor was there ANY action taken,” he added, while “[t]hose that defended [him] faced consequences from Facebook in way of bans.”

    Well, at least the pattern of the propaganda makes sense, in a way: slander the nonconformist and you can get away with murder; defend him, you’re silenced.

    Even the New York Times’ resident faux progressive, Michelle Goldberg, has taken up the cry. Another “Trump fan,” she sniffed on July 14, has become a “macabre cliché” by dying of a disease she blames him for contracting.

    I wonder whether Ms. Goldberg would be smirking about a woman who was raped some two months after posting a comment to the effect that “I’ll go wherever I want and dress however I like.” My guess is that the analogy hasn’t occurred to her; she knows her job, and it’s about propaganda, not consistency.

    And the propaganda’s bottom line is as clear as it is grim. Forget about your personal liberties. Forget about the democracy you thought you were living in. The mask – the symbol of fear, of arbitrary rule, of the abolition of normal social life, of voiceless submission – isn’t going away any time soon.

    Nor is the police state that sponsors it.

    “There’s going to be no summertime lull with a big wave in the fall,” says Eric Toner, one of the boffins of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, a partner of the neoliberal American Enterprise Institute that has been instrumental in promoting lockdowns from the start.

    It’s clear that we are having a significant resurgence of cases in the summer, and they’ll get bigger. And it’ll keep going until we lock things down again.

    And how long before the cycle of incarceration really ends? “[S]everal years,” Toner says blandly, adding the sinister afterthought that people who resist being muzzled “will get over it.… It’s just a question of how many people get sick and die before they get over it.”

    Makes you feel kind of warm and protected, doesn’t it? Thank heaven people like Toner know our needs so much better than we do.

    The media ubiquity of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security is another ominous feature of the current wave of propaganda.

    Last October, the Center ran a coronavirus pandemic “simulation” in New York City – cosponsored by the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation – for an assembly of powerful people in business and government, after which its members openly speculated about the possible need for “censoring social media content” on the theory that “[m]isinformation and disinformation are likely to be serious threats during a public health emergency.”

    These facts obviously bear on the organization’s motives and credibility, at the very least. But you won’t hear them mentioned when the Center’s data are repeated as fact in mainstream media, nor when its members assure us that if we don’t wear masks for the next two years we’ll all drop dead.

    Is it unreasonable to hope that reporters might want to explore why “health security” is presumed to entail censorship? Or whether the huge investment of the Gates Foundation in vaccine development has any influence on its partner organization’s bleak predictions for escaping the coronavirus without a new vaccine? Or whether, having insisted first on devastating lockdowns and now on worthless face masks, the Center will use its political leverage to demand mandatory vaccination when the time comes?

    Professor Lawrence Gostin is another worrisome presence in the media, including Michelle Goldberg’s recent sanctimonious outburst in the New York Times – where, pretending to describe the consequences of the virus, she catalogs the devastation of the lockdowns instead:

    [A] record 5.4 million people lost their health insurance between February and May. A generation of American kids will have their educations derailed, and many parents who don’t lose their jobs due to the economic crisis will see their careers ruined by the demands of child care

    […]

    The psychological consequences alone will be incalculable. Even before the coronavirus, researchers spoke of loneliness as its own epidemic in America. A March article in the medical journal JAMA Psychiatry attributed 162,000 deaths a year to the fallout of social isolation. Now people are being told that they can socialize only under the most stringent conditions. Much of what makes life sweet is lost to us, not for days or weeks, but months or years.

    As I said, this is a chillingly accurate summary of the consequences of the mass incarceration foisted on us by more than 40 state governors, most of them Democrats, beginning in early March – when each one, with a unilateral declaration of a “health emergency,” seized quasi-dictatorial powers, shunted aside the Constitution and bankrupted the citizenry. Those “emergency” powers have not been relinquished to this day.

    But neither Goldberg nor her hero, Professor Gostin, offers a single word of criticism for any of those governors, and certainly not for the Democratic Party leadership that has backed this democracy-destroying, economy-wrecking madness at every step. For them, everything is the exclusive fault of one man: Donald Trump.

    Coming from Goldberg, that might be just another election-year screed against an incumbent the Times dislikes. But what about Gostin? Well, although Goldberg never mentions it, Professor Gostin just happens to be the author of the model version of the Emergency Health Powers Act, the adoption of which in all fifty states (if in somewhat different versions) made possible the coup the governors pulled off by claiming “emergencies” several months ago.

    It’s worth remembering that Gostin’s proposed bill was sharply criticized by the American Civil Liberties Union back in 2001 as “replete with civil liberties problems” and “a throwback to a time before the legal system recognized basic protections for fairness.”

    In fact, some of its specific objections to the EHPA deserve quoting at length, in light of where the Act’s reckless application has brought us today:

    1. It fails to include basic checks and balances. The Act would grant extraordinary emergency powers, but that kind of authority should never go unchecked. Public health authorities make mistakes, and politicians abuse their powers…The lack of checks and balances could have serious consequences for individuals’ freedom, privacy, and equality. The Act lets a governor declare a state of emergency unilaterally and without judicial oversight, fails to provide modern due process procedures for quarantine and other emergency powers…and contains no checks on the power to order forced treatment and vaccination.

    2. It goes well beyond bioterrorism. The act includes an overbroad definition of “public health emergency”…that clearly do[es] not justify quarantine, forced treatment, or any of the other broad emergency authorities that would be granted under the Act.

    3. It lacks privacy protections. The Act requires the disclosure of massive amounts of personally identifiable health information to public health authorities, without requiring basic privacy protections and fair information practices…. That not only threatens to violate individuals’ medical privacy but undermines public trust in government activities.

    It’s not hard to see why Ms. Goldberg is reluctant to give us the accurate back story for her star witness. The ACLU’s list of warnings about the potential abuses of the law Gostin drafted is a near-perfect précis of what has actually happened: unilateral declarations of an “emergency,” state by state, where none really existed; the seizure by each governor of almost unlimited power to order quarantines and forced vaccinations; the elimination of “due process” restrictions on mass confinement; the dismantling of privacy protections along with basic rights.

    I don’t intend to sing the praises of the ACLU, which – like so many other liberal institutions in the US – has been missing in action since the actual coup began last March. But no one can deny the prescience of its critique. And Goldberg knows her readers aren’t stupid: once they are aware of the role Gostin played in orchestrating the overthrow of their freedoms, they’re not likely to grant him the pied piper status Goldberg wants him to have.

    Why does she cite Gostin? First, to “prove” – like Eric Toner in another context – that the COVID19 outbreak, the current excuse for the denial of our liberties, will last another two years; amazingly, Goldberg claims this while insisting simultaneously that the same outbreak is practically over in New Zealand, Taiwan and Italy after just a few months.

    But she also needs him to explain, albeit in somewhat indirect language, why democracy isn’t good for us.

    According to Gostin, the coronavirus has proved that “health system capacity alone is almost useless unless you have a government that can unleash that capacity promptly and consistently.” Obviously, we can’t do that if we have to bother with pesky constraints like representative government or the public will. And from Gostin’s perspective, we’ve been dabbling in the utopianism of democracy for too long as it is: “It’s going to take several years for us to be able to come out of all of the trauma that we’ve had,” he warns.

    And I think that suggests the real message Goldberg and the other propagandists are keen on peddling. They didn’t do this to us. It’s not that we’ve been lied to and illegally confined. It’s not that our state executives have defied their oaths of office. It’s not that their media mouthpieces have offered us one swindle after another: lockdowns, business closings, job losses, muzzling, scare-mongering, the destruction (as Goldberg herself admits) of “much of what makes life sweet” – theater, cinema, public discussion, time shared with friends.

    The problem is us. We’ve been clinging to dreams of freedom – and that will cost us. The lockdown-lovers are going to punish us for our wrongheaded attachment to notions of individual rights, and they will punish us still more for continuing recalcitrance. But note this: they can only get away with it by selling us one more lie – namely, that what they’re doing to us is really the work of a disease beyond anyone’s control.

    “The coronavirus is a natural disaster,” Goldberg writes.

    No, it isn’t.

    The coronavirus is just another flu. The real disaster has been the work of human beings. Resisting it must be, too.

  • Visualizing The Spiraling Opioid Epidemic In America
    Visualizing The Spiraling Opioid Epidemic In America

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 23:00

    Over the last 20 years, the U.S. opioid crisis has claimed tens of thousands of lives. In fact, as Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh details below, opioid overdose deaths accounted for nearly 70% of all drug overdose deaths in 2018.

    Although the damage of the opioid epidemic is well documented, what people might not know is that it has escalated in three distinct waves.

    We pull the latest statistics from the UN World Drug Report 2020 to uncover the scope of the opioid crisis in the U.S., and how national drug-related death rates compare to other countries.

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    Three Waves of the Opioid Crisis

    According to the CDC, the opioid epidemic can be traced back to the 1990s, when opioids started being over-prescribed for pain relief purposes.

    • 1990s – Wave 1
      Over-prescription of opioids for pain relief, including natural opioids, semi-synthetic opioids, and methadone. Addiction risks were widely downplayed.
    • 2010 – Wave 2
      Heroin-related overdose deaths on the rise.
    • 2013 – Wave 3
      Synthetic opioid-related deaths on the rise, particularly fentanyl and tramadol.

    Here’s how that breaks down in terms of opioid-related overdose deaths over the years. Note that by the year 2018, 67% of overdose deaths involved synthetic opioids such as fentanyl.

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    Overdose deaths from synthetic opioids such as fentanyl and tramadol shot up by over 4,000% between 1999-2018. This can be attributed to two things: their relative potency, and the minute quantities of each that qualify as a lethal dose.

    As per the medical and legal standard, opioids are often compared to morphine. To that end, heroin is 2-5x stronger—while fentanyl is 50-100x more potent. Put another way, roughly a dime-size or 10-12mg of heroin is considered a lethal dose, compared to only 1-2mg of fentanyl.

    What’s worse, fentanyl is typically mixed with other types of drugs such as heroin or cocaine to increase their effects, which is how it ends up unintentionally ingested. Between 2008-2017, drug-use disorders as a whole claimed the most healthy lives due to poor health or early deaths—measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)—followed in close second by opioid use disorders.

    The Death Toll of U.S. Drug Overdoses

    It’s undeniable that the opioid epidemic in America has caused significant harm to communities. But how does the U.S. drug crisis compare to the same issue in other countries?

    The UN Drug Report further puts these numbers into perspective by comparing drug-related deaths per million population. Note that the source also compiled the total deaths across years for selected countries.

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    With 314.5 deaths per million, the U.S. by far had the highest proportion of drug-related deaths per million people in 2018. It also had the highest overall number at 67.4K deaths.

    Elephant in the Room?

    Another drug rearing its head on the streets is carfentanil. Formerly developed as ‘elephant tranquilizer’, this synthetic opioid is similar in appearance to other illicit drugs such as heroin, making it indistinguishable when mixed in. However, there’s one big problem—carfentanil is 100x more potent than fentanyl itself.

    In response to the continued crisis, an additional $35.7 billion was requested for counter-drug funding efforts in the FY2021 Budget. This amount is expected to go towards prevention and treatment efforts ($18.6 billion) and law enforcement efforts ($17.1 billion) both domestically and internationally.

    But will these efforts properly combat the crisis, or are we already in the midst of a fourth wave of the opioid epidemic?

  • Why We Shouldn't Believe Polling About Trump
    Why We Shouldn’t Believe Polling About Trump

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Lord Pettigrew, op-ed via Townhall.com,

    Many conservatives are concerned about polling results regarding conservative issues, especially about President Trump. For example, the latest CNN poll found that 51% of voters believe the president should be impeached. How much credence should conservatives give these polls?

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    Mark Twain is credited with introducing into the American vernacular the phrase, “Lies, damned lies and statistics.” One of the pervasive damned lies people take for granted is the results of political polls, especially in the Trump era. Most polls show him behind several of the myriad candidates vying to represent Democrats in the 2020 election. But the American Association for Public Opinion Research confirms that “national polls in 2016 tended to under-estimate Trump’s support significantly more than Clinton’s.”

    We are inundated with the latest polling on President Trump’s approval rating and how people are likely to vote in the 2020 election. Both bode poorly for the president, but he doesn’t believe them and neither should we. As an academic, I ran a research center that conducted local, state-wide and national public opinion polls and took a year’s leave of absence from my university to work for Lou Harris, founder of the Harris Poll.

    Social Desirability

    The reason why we shouldn’t believe most of the current or future polling results about President Trump can be summarized in two words: Social Desirability.

    Social desirability is a concept first advanced by psychologist Allen L. Edwards in 1953. It advances the idea that when asked about an issue in a social setting, people will always answer in a socially desirable manner whether or not they really believe it. Political polling, whether by telephone or online, is a social setting. Respondents know that there is an audience who are posing the questions and monitoring their response. As a result, despite a respondent’s true belief, many will answer polling questions in what may appear to be a more socially desirable way, or not answer at all. 

    When it comes to President Trump, the mainstream media and academics have led us to believe that it is not socially desirable (or politically correct) to support him. When up against such sizable odds, most conservatives will do one of three things:

    1) Say we support someone else when we really support the president (lie);

    2) tell the truth despite the social undesirability of that response;

    3) Not participate in the poll (nonresponse bias).

    This situation has several real consequences for Trump polling. First, for those in the initial voter sample unwilling to participate, the pollster must replace them with people willing to take the poll. Assuming this segment is made up largely of pro-Trump supporters, finding representative replacements can be expensive, time-consuming and doing so increases the sampling error rate (SER) while decreasing the validity of the poll. Sampling error rate is the gold standard statistic in polling. It means that the results of a particular poll will vary by no more than +x% than if the entire voter population was surveyed. All else being equal, a poll with a sampling error rate of +2% is more believable than one of +4% because it has a larger sample. Immediate polling on issues like President Trump’s impeachment may provide support to journalists with a point of view to broadcast, but with a small sample and high sampling error rates, the results aren’t worthy of one’s time and consideration.

    Some political pollsters often get around the necessity of repeated sampling over the course of an election by forming a panel of people who match the demographics (party affiliation, age, gender, race, location, etc.) of registered voting public. Polling companies often compensate panel members and use them across the entire election cycle. Such panels are still subject to the effects of social desirability and initial substitution error.

    Interpretive Bias

    Another factor to consider is the institution that is conducting the poll and those reporting the data. Their progressive sensibilities are thumbing the scale of truth. In my experience, polls conducted by media companies are less credible since they are often guilty of the same biases seen in their news reports. The perfect example of this is The New York Times’s “Poll Watch,” which provides a weekly review of their political poll. My experience is that it reflects strongly the Times’s negative opinions about President Trump and conservative ideas and the paper’s heavy political bias.

    Even the Harris Poll, when Lou was alive, suffered somewhat from this bias. Lou Harris was the first person to conduct serious political polling on a national level and is credited with giving John Kennedy the competitive advantage over Richard Nixon in the 1960 election. He made political polling de require for future elections. While many people point to Nixon’s twelve o’clock shadow during the televised debate, Harris gave Kennedy the real competitive advantage—a more complete grasp of what issues voters thought were most important and how to tailor his policy pitches toward that end.

    I worked for Lou between 1999-2000. During the election season we would get the daily tab read-outs. While the results were pristine, Lou would interpret those numbers on NPR and in other media in a way that showed his clear Democrat bias. His wishful thinking that Al Gore would beat George W. Bush would color his interpretation of what the numbers meant. In the end, by a razon thin margin, Bush took the White House and Gore was relegated to inconvenient environmental truths. Similarly, the 2016 election saw Trump beat favorite Hillary Clinton by a significant electoral margin, despite the vast majority of polls giving Mrs. Clinton the edge by between 3-5%.

    Where We Go from Here

    Public opinion polling is generally not junk science although with some companies it can be. Companies like Gallup and Pew consistently do a good job of chronicling political opinion in America. At issue is the fact that these polling stalwarts don’t work for media companies and use large national samples from current voter rolls; they also tend to not put their thumbs on the interpretation of data. President Trump is a president unlike any other and most of his supporters don’t participate in political polls. Even Trump’s own pollsters were surprised by his 2016 win. We would do well during these fractured times to ignore political opinion polls for they will continue to be much to do about nothing.

    Just be sure to vote your conscience and that is nobody’s opinion but your own. 

  • Boeing Is Running Out Of Space To Park Its Newly-Built 787 Dreamliners Which Nobody Wants To Buy
    Boeing Is Running Out Of Space To Park Its Newly-Built 787 Dreamliners Which Nobody Wants To Buy

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 21:54

    While Morgan Stanley continues to stubbornly repeat that the US economy is undergoing a jolly V-shaped recovery, one would be very hard pressed to observe that in either the number of airline passengers, or the commercial aerospace sector in general, where Boeing has become a poster child for how quickly the fate can turn… and it’s not just the company’s ill-fated Boeing 737 MAX which may or may not fly again. According to Bloomberg, Boeing is now also running out of space to stash newly-built 787 Dreamliners, as unsold jetliners are now crammed onto “every available patch of pavement on airfields near its factories in Washington and South Carolina.”

    Citing people familiar with the situation, Bloomberg writes that “dozens of the planes are sitting on the company’s premises” with Uresh Sheth, a closely followed blogger who meticulously tracks the Dreamliners rolling through Boeing’s factories, putting the total somewhere above 50. That’s more than double the number of jets typically awaiting customers along Boeing’s flight lines.

    According to Sheth, brand-new widebodies are lined up on a closed off runway at the airport that abuts Boeing’s hulking plant north of Seattle. In North Charleston, 787s are tucked around the delivery center and a paint hangar. The U.S. planemaker has even started sending aircraft to be stored in a desert lot in Victorville, California.

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    Commercial aircraft storage at Mojave Airport.

    Boeing’s troubles with parked jets are nothing new: last year Boeing had so many 737 Maxes after their global ground when it emerged that Boeing had drastically cut corners to save on costs even if it meant risking people’s lives, that it commandeered an employee parking lot to store surplus aircraft. Now, as it finally starts to emerge from that crisis, another critical source of cash – the company’s marquee jet, the 787 Dreamliner – is under pressure but not do to airworthiness concerns but simply due to the global depression that commercial air traffic has found itself in.

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    As Bloomberg notes, Boeing has relied on the wide-body jet, produced in record numbers, to help bankroll the $20 billion in costs it has rung up since the Max was banned from commercial flight in March 2019 following two fatal crashes. But as Covid-19 sapped consumer interest in long-range travel this year, “the tally of undelivered Dreamliners has stacked up and created a new financial drag as regulators move closer to clearing the 737’s return.”

    As a result of the current state of the airline industry, “the next couple of years are just going to be very hard for this airplane,” George Ferguson, a Bloomberg analyst said of the 787 Dreamliner. Some more details:

    Demand for the twin-aisle 787, Boeing’s 777 and Airbus’s A350 and A330neo has been especially hard hit as cash-strapped airlines slow or cancel aircraft purchases. Some would-be buyers don’t want to send pilots to claim aircraft in the U.S., where the pandemic is raging. When they are able to start growing fleets, airlines are expected to initially focus on smaller planes for domestic flights before adding larger aircraft for continent-hopping trips.

    Boeing also faces a “capacity hangover” after pushing Dreamliner production to a 14-jet monthly pace last year — a record for wide-body aircraft — in a market that was already glutted with aircraft, said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with Teal Group.

    “It was one of the few levers they could pull to bring in more cash during what seemed like a crisis, and now looks like a nothingburger,” Aboulafia said of Boeing’s response to the Max grounding. That scandal has been eclipsed by the unprecedented aviation collapse brought on by Covid-19. “No twin-aisle had ever been built at 14-a-month for a very good reason.”

    For now, Boeing is acting as if demand will soon rebound: “We continue to closely monitor the commercial marketplace by staying very engaged with our customers around the globe to fully understand short term and long term requirements,” Greg Smith, the company’s chief financial officer and executive vice president of enterprise operations, said in a statement.

    Unfortunately, such optimism remains wildly misplaced as customers took just three of Boeing’s 787 during May and June, and 36 of the aircraft in the first six months of the year, down more than 50% from 78 deliveries a year earlier.

    While Boeing has already lowered 787 production to 10 jets a month, it will need to pursue far deeper cuts over the next two years, which will further sap the company’s cash flow. Even so, the manufacturer could be left holding one-third of the more than 100 Dreamliners that J.P. Morgan analyst Seth Seifman projects the company will build this year.

    In short, as a result of the global economic recession, Boeing is facing a good, old inventory glut, and absent taking a machete to prices, it will have big problems clearing out the excess inventory.

    “It may be difficult to clear this inventory next year,” given that Boeing would have to ramp up deliveries at a time when “when long-range travel may still be under pressure,” Seifman said in a July 15 report.

    While Boeing’s stock has so far neglected the lack of demand for the company’s cash cow, that will soon change. Boeing’s ballooning 787 inventory and deferred production costs should come into sharper focus over the next two weeks as key customers like American Airlines and United Airlines report earnings, followed Boeing itself on July 29.

    For years after the 787 Dreamliner made its commercial debut in 2011, taped up aircraft awaiting retrofitted parts dotted Paine Field, adjacent to Boeing’s factory in Everett, Washington. For Sheth, there’s a sense of déjà vu to the growing glut.

    “I have no doubt they are going to recover from that downturn,” Sheth said. “But at this point they’re probably going to have to cut production even lower because they can’t continue on this trajectory.”

    All of which means even lower future income, more layoffs and – eventually – a return to the bargaining table to ask Uncle Sam for some bailout cash, which Boeing has so far managed to avoid.

  • What Lies Ahead?
    What Lies Ahead?

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Dr. Jack Rasmus via JackRasmus.com,

    On July 6, 2020 I posted my extended view and analysis why the 3rd quarter US GDP would falter–and lead to a W-shape recovery, as it typical of all Great Recessions. The current recession’s scenario was compared with 1929-30 and 2008-09, and 8 reasons were given why the US current economic rebound (not recovery) would falter. In this follow-on post a somewhat longer term scenario is added to the prior shorter, 3rd quarter view. It’s an addendum and sequel to the prior post, focusing on the more permanent impacts on the economy that will continue well into 2021 and beyond. Here’s the addendum piece, “What Lies Ahead”

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    WHAT LIES AHEAD?

    The US economy at mid-year 2020 is at a critical juncture. What happens in the next three months will likely determine whether the current Great Recession 2.0 continues to follow a W-shape trajectory – or drifts over an economic precipice into an economic depression. With prompt and sufficient fiscal stimulus targeting US households, minimal political instability before the November 2020 elections, and no financial instability event, it may be contained. No worse than a prolonged W-shape recovery will occur. But should the fiscal stimulus be minimal (and poorly composed), should political instability grow significantly worse, and a major financial instability event erupt in the US (or globally), then it is highly likely a descent to a bona fide economic depression will occur.

    The prognosis for a swift economic recovery is not all that positive. Multiple forces are at work that strongly suggest the early summer economic ‘rebound’ will prove temporary and that a further decline in jobs, consumption, investment, and the economy is on the horizon.

    A Second Wave of Permanent Job Losses

    Through mid-June to mid-July, the COVID-19 infection rate, hospitalization rate, and soon the death rate, have all begun to escalate once again. Daily infections consistently now exceed 60,000 cases—i.e. more than twice that of the earlier worst month of April 2020. Consequently, states are beginning to order a return to more sheltering in place and shutdowns of business, especially retail, travel, and entertainment services. The direction of events cannot but hamper any initial rebound of the economy, let alone generate a sustained economic recovery. Exacerbating conditions, a second wave of job layoffs is clearly now emerging—and not just due to economic shutdowns related to the resurging virus.

    Reopening of the US economy in June resulted in 4.8 million jobs restored for that month, according to the US Labor Department. That number included, however, no fewer than 3 million service jobs in restaurants, hospitality, and retail establishments. These are the occupations that are now being impacted again with layoffs, as States retrench once more due to the virus resurgence underway. But there’s a new development as well: A second jobless wave is now emerging in addition to the renewed layoffs due to shutdowns not only of the resumed service and retail occupations, but reflecting longer term and even permanent job layoffs across various industries.

    Household consumption patterns have changed fundamentally and permanently in a number of ways due to both the virus effect and the depth of the current recession. Many consumers will not be returning soon to travel, to shopping at malls, to restaurant services, to mass entertainment or to sport events at the levels they had, pre-virus.

    In response, large corporations in these sectors have begun to announce job layoffs by the thousands. Two large US airlines—United and American—have announced their intention to lay off 36,000 and 20,000, respectively, including flight attendants, ground crews, and even pilots. Boeing has announced a cut of 16,000, and Uber,n just its latest announcement, a cut of 3,000. Big box retail companies like JCPenneys, Nieman Marcus, Lord & Taylor, and others are closing hundreds of stores with a similar impact on what were formerly thousands of permanent jobs. Oil & gas fracking companies like Cheasepeake and 200 other frackers now defaulting on their debt are laying off tens of thousands more. Trucking companies like YRC Worldwide, the Hertz car rental company, clothing & apparel sellers like Brooks Brothers, small-medium independent restaurant and hotel chains like Krystal, Craftworks—all are implementing, or announcing permanent layoffs by the thousands as well.

    Reflecting this, since mid-June new unemployment benefit claims have continued to rise weekly at a rate of more than 2 million—with about 1.3 million receiving regular state unemployment benefits plus another 1 million independent contractors, gig workers, self-employed receiving the special federal government unemployment benefits. The latter group’s numbers are rising rapidly since mid-June.

    As of mid-July no fewer than 33 million are receiving unemployment benefits, with another 6 million having dropped out of the labor force altogether and no longer even being counted as unemployed. Unemployment therefore remains at what will likely be a chronically high number, at around 40 million—with about 25% of the US labor force unemployed—as renewed service-retail sector layoffs, plus new permanent layoffs, both loom on the horizon.

    Added to the growing problem of renewed service layoffs and the 2nd wave of permanent layoffs in the private sector is the growing likelihood of significant layoffs in the public sector, as states and cities facing massive budget deficits are forced to lay off several millions of the roughly 22 million public sector workers in the US. This potential public employee layoff wave will accelerate and occur sooner, should Congress in summer 2020 fail to bail out the states and cities whose budgets have been severely impacted by the collapse of tax revenues while facing escalating costs of dealing with the health crisis. Estimates as of last May are that the states and cities will need $969 billion in bailout funding this summer—roughly two-thirds for the states and the rest for cities and local governments.

    The resurgence of layoffs from all these sources is a sure indicator that the economy’s rebound—let alone recovery—is in trouble. Rising joblessness means less wage income for households and therefore less consumption and, given that consumption is 70% of the economy, a slowing of the rebound and recovery. Problems in consumption in turn mean business investment suffers as well, further slowing the economy and recovery. Exacerbating the decline in personal income devoted to consumption due to unemployment is the evidence that even those fortunate enough to return to work after spring 2020’s economic shutdown are doing so increasingly as part time employed—which means less wage income for consumption compared to the pre-COVID period before March 2020.

    Overlaid on these negative prospects for employment, consumption, business investment is the intensification of economic crisis-related problems.

    Rent Evictions, Child Care & Education Chaos

    There is an imminent crisis in rents affecting tens of millions. At the peak in April, it is estimated that roughly one-third of the 110 million renters in the US economy had stopped making rent payments due to the COVID-related shutdowns of the economy. The CARES ACT, passed in March, provided forbearance on rental payments, although perhaps as many as 20 states failed to enforce it. That forbearance directive expires at the end of July, with as many as 23 million rent evictions projected in coming months. A major housing crisis is thus brewing, as well as the second wave of job layoffs.

    A combined education-child care crisis is about to occur almost simultaneously. The K-12 public education system is approaching chaos, as school districts plan to introduce remote learning on a major scale in order to deal with the renewed COVID-19 infection and hospitalization wave. The heart of the crisis is that tens of millions of US working class families dependent on two paychecks to survive economically cannot afford to accommodate school district practices for remote learning—especially for young children in the K-6 grade levels. Even if such families could afford to pay for expensive child care, the current US child care system is far from being able to accommodate them. Many minority and working class households, moreover, lack the computers and networking equipment, or even the requisite skills to set it up, to enable their children participate in remote learning.

    Several forces are driving the shift to remote learning: school district fears of liability actions by parents if children become ill, the significant cost of ensuring disinfected classrooms, the lack of classroom space to allow distance learning on site, and the growing concern of teachers regarding their own exposure to infection. At least 1.5 million public school teachers are over age 50 and have health conditions that put them at greater risk of serious infection, should they attend closed-in classroom environments.

    The child care plus K-12 education crisis will likely erupt within months on a major scale. Chaos in education is around the corner.

    This fall, higher education—colleges and universities—will also experience chaos of their own kind. While distance learning will not be as serious an implementation problem as it will in K-12 levels, costs from the pandemic will force many smaller, private colleges into bankruptcy, consolidation or closure. Public colleges’ funding problems will require them to sharply reduce available services. Remote education will create a two-tier system of higher education—educational services delivered remotely and those of a more traditional nature on campus; or a hybrid of both.

    However, demand for higher education services will likely decline sharply in the short term, during which higher education will experience a devastating decrease in tuition and other sources of college revenues. Some estimates show a third of freshmen plan to take what’s called a ‘gap year’: i.e. accept entrance but not attend for a year. That’s a massive revenue loss. Some estimates foresee a 15%-30% decline in new student attendance, with another 5%-10% decline in transfer students, and a similar decline of 5%-10% in continuing students. In addition, the attendance by international students, the ‘cash cow’ for most colleges, will also decline sharply due to the Trump administration’s new rules.

    Still other developments will sharply reduce college revenues. Students forced to attend classes via remote learning will demand lower tuition. One can expect a wave of legal suits as students seek to ‘claw back’ full tuition expenses. Other secondary sources of college revenues—from fees, on-campus room and board, endowment earnings and gifts, and sports revenues—also spell a looming revenue crunch.

    A wave of college consolidations and closures is inevitable. And with student loan debt at $1.6 trillion it is unlikely that the federal government will introduce new aid through that channel. Nor will States increase their subsidization of public colleges, given the severe state budget deficits on the horizon.
    In short, the economic crisis is about to assume more socio-economic dimensions and character: rent, child-care, education chaos will soon overlay the continuing unemployment problem and worsening recession. Social and political discontent, frustration, and anxiety are almost certainly to rise in turn in coming months as a consequence.

    Global Recession & Sovereign Debt Defaults

    The weakness of the global economy is yet another factor likely to ensure the US economy’s W-shape trajectory. As noted previously, with 90% of other countries in recession, global demand for US exports will remain weak or declining. In addition, global supply chains have also been severely disrupted by the health crisis, or even broken, and will not be restored soon. The global economy is suffering from deep problems of both demand and supply. This too is a unique historical event. Never before have demand and supply problems occurred congruently. Together, they increase the potential for a global depression.
    Commodity producing economies have been hard hit, especially oil and metal producing countries. Many were in a recession well before the COVID health crisis. Global trade in general had stagnated, registering little to no growth in 2019, for the first time since modern records were kept. Many countries had over-extended their borrowing, expanding their sovereign debt loads during the last decade. This was money capital borrowed largely from western banks and capital markets (i.e. shadow banks).

    Now, with global trade flat and declining, and prices for their export goods deflating in price as well, these debt-extended countries cannot earn sufficient income from exports in order to pay the principal and interest on their debt. As a result, several countries in the worst shape may soon default on their debt payment to western banks, hedge funds, private equity firms, and so on. Debt defaults potentially mean the same western financial institutions that loaned the funds now experience financial crises in turn. In such a manner, financial instability events abroad are often transmitted to the domestic US economy through its banking system. It would not be the first time, moreover, that foreign bank crashes have spilled over the US and rest of the world economy and in the process significantly exacerbated a recession already underway.

    Theoretically, countries experiencing severe sovereign debt crises could borrow from the International Monetary Fund. However, the IMF has nowhere near the funds to accommodate multiple large sovereign defaults that occur simultaneously. Nor is it likely that the US and Europe will increase the IMF’s funding to enable it to do so. Once it becomes clear the IMF cannot handle a crisis of such potential dimensions, the global capitalist economy will slip even further toward global depression.

    The further deterioration now already occurring in economic relations between the US and China may also potentially impact the Great Recession in the US, and ensure its continued W-Shape recovery. Trump’s trade pact with China signed December 2019 has proven thus far a colossal failure. The president declared at the deal’s signing it would mean $150 billion in China purchases of US goods in 2020—especially farm products, oil & gas, and manufactured goods. At mid-year,

    China has purchased only $5 billion of the agreed $40 billion in farm products and only $14 billion of $85 billion in US manufactured goods. Trump’s promised $150 billion was never agreed to by China, even before the Covid pandemic struck the US economy in 2020. China never agreed to a dollar value of purchases of US exports, but announced it would purchase based on conditions in 2020-21. Trump’s $150 billion was typical Trump misrepresentation of a deal never made. At best China would purchase perhaps $40 billion in agricultural goods—i.e. about the level of it purchases before Trump launched a trade war with it in March 2018. Failure to deliver his exaggerated public promise in 2020 Trump turned on on China and embraced further his anti-China hard line advisors on trade and other matters. The former ‘trade war’ with China will likely transform now, in the wake of Covid, into a broader economic war with China. Furthermore, the deterioration of relations with China, set in motion by the current recession and the collapse of global trade, shows signs of spilling over to other political and even military affairs.

    Permanent Industry Transformations

    The COVID health crisis is accelerating the transformation of entire industries and sectors of the economy, US and global. As noted above, household consumption patterns are already changing fundamentally and will continue as changed even after the health crisis passes. Entire industries will shrink as a consequence. Company consolidations and downsizing are inevitable in airlines, cruise lines, and even public land transport. So too will companies fail, consolidate and restructure in the hospitality, leisure and hotel industries, in mall-based retail establishments, inside entertainment (movies, casinos, etc.) to name but the obvious. Sports and public entertainment companies are struggling to redefine their business models and how they bring their ‘product’ to the public for consumption. Even education—public and private—is undergoing a radical shift. Not so obvious is similar fundamental change in oil & energy industries, and later as well in manufacturing as supply chains are slowly returned to the US economy.

    Not only will these changes significantly (and often negatively) impact employment levels and wage incomes, but business practices as well. Already businesses are instituting new cost cutting practices under the pressure of the health crisis and shutdowns. These practices will become permanent. And since much of the practices and cost cutting will focus on workers’ pay and benefits, more of what economists call ‘long term structural unemployment’ will result—in addition to the current ‘cyclical unemployment’ occurring due to the current recession.

    An historic consequence of the current Great Recession precipitated by the COVID-19 health crisis is the accelerating introduction underway of what some call the Artificial Intelligence revolution. AI is about cost-cutting. It’s about new data accumulation, data processing and statistical evaluation, to allow software machines to make decisions previously made by human beings. AI will eliminate millions of low level decision-making by workers in both services and manufacturing. A 2017 report by the business consulting firm, McKinsey, predicted no less than 30% of all workers’ occupations will be severely impacted by AI by the end of the present decade. 30% of jobs will either disappear or have their hours reduced significantly. That means less wage income and less consumption still.

    The important linkage to the current Great Recession 2.0 is that the introduction of AI by businesses will now speed up. What McKinsey formerly predicted for the late 2020s decade will now take place by mid-decade. The economic consequences for the next generation of US workers, the late Millennials and the GenZers will be serious, to say the least. After decades of the permeation of low pay, low benefits ‘contingent’ part time and temp jobs since the 1990s, after the impact of the 2008-09 crash and aftermath on employment, after the acceleration of ‘gig’ jobs with the Uberization of the capitalist economy since 2010, and after the even more serious negative economic effects of the current Great Recession 2.0, the tens of millions of US workers entering the labor force today and in coming years will have to face the transformation of another 30% of all occupations. The future does not portend very well for the 70 million millennials and GenZers. US neoliberal economic policies and the Great Recession 2.0 is accelerating the long term structural unemployment crisis of both the US and the global capitalist economy.

    Return of Fiscal Austerity

    The US federal budget deficit under Trump averaged more than a trillion dollars annually during his first three years in office. The federal national debt at the end of 2019 was $22.8 trillion. As of July 2020 it has risen to $26.5 trillion—and rising. Earlier projections in March were that it would increase by $3.7 trillion in 2020. That has already been exceeded. So, too, will projections for 2021, or another $2.1 trillion. The deficit and debt will likely rise to more than $4 trillion in this fiscal year and another $3 trillion in 2021. That means the current national debt within 18 months will reach $30 trillion. And that’s not counting the debt level rise for state and local governments, already $3 trillion; nor the debt carried on the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, balance sheet which is scheduled to rise another $3 trillion at minimum.

    The point of presenting these statistics is that the US elites, sooner or later, will introduce a major austerity program. It will likely come later in 2021. And it will make little difference whether the administration that time is headed by Democrats or Republicans. It will come and it will target social security, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, education, housing, transport and other social programs.
    A The first Great Recession provides a historical precedent. Obama’s recovery program in January 2009 provided for $787 billion in stimulus. But the joint Republican-Democrat austerity agreement introduced in August 2011 took back nearly twice that stimulus, or $1.5 trillion, in 2011-13. That austerity contributed significantly to the W-shape recovery from the 2008-09 economic crash and contraction—i.e. the first Great Recession. With the current deficit surge of $6 trillion to date, likely to increase to $9 to $10 trillion, the US economic elites will no doubt pursue a new austerity regime at some point within the next few years. That austerity will, like its predecessor, ensure at best a W-shape recovery typical of Great Recessions. At worst, it may prove the final event that pushes the US economy into another Great Depression.

    Financial Instability

    Those who deny that the US and global economy have already entered a second Great Recession offer the argument that the 2008-09 crash and recession was caused by the banking and financial crash of 2008-09, and therefore, since there has not yet been a financial crash, the economy at present is not in another Great Recession. But they are wrong.

    Great Recessions are always associated with a financial crisis, but that crisis need not precede the deep contraction of the real, non-financial economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has played the role of a financial crash in driving the real economy into a contraction that is both quantitatively and qualitatively worse than a ‘normal’ recession. Furthermore, a subsequent banking system-financial crash is not impossible in the coming months, although not yet likely in 2020.
    The preconditions for a financial crisis are in development. It won’t be precipitated by a residential mortgage crisis, as in 2007-08. But there are several potential candidates for precipitating a financial crash once again. Here are just a few:

    • The commercial property sector in the US is in deep trouble. Commercial property includes malls, office buildings, hotels, resorts, factories, and multiple tenant apartment complexes. Many incurred deep debt obligations as they expanded after 2010 or just kept operating by accruing more high cost debt when they were unprofitable. Today they are unable to continue servicing (i.e. paying principal and interest) on their excessive debt load. Many have begun the process of default and chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. Banks and investors hold much of the commercial property debt that will never be repaid. Excess derivatives (credit default swaps) have been written on the debt. A debt crisis and wave of defaults and bankruptcies in 2020-21 in the commercial property sector could easily precipitate a subprime mortgage-like debt crisis as occurred in 2008-09. And derivatives obligations could transmit the crisis throughout the banking system—as it did in 2009. Regional and small community banks in the US are particularly vulnerable.

    • The oil and gas fracking industry, where junk bond and leverage loan debt had already risen to unstable levels by the advent of the COVID crisis. The collapse of world oil and gas prices—which began before the COVID-19 impact and continues—will render drillers and others unable to generate the income with which to service their debt. Already more than 200 companies in this sector are in default and bankruptcy proceedings. Again, regional banks that financed much of the expansion of fracking in Texas, the Dakotas, and Pennsylvania will be impacted severely by the defaults. Their financial instability could easily spread to other sectors of banking and finance in the US.

    • State and local governments, should Congress fail to appropriate sufficient bailout funding in its next round of fiscal spending in July 2020. State and local governments are capable of default and bankruptcy—unlike the Federal government, which is not. The US has a long history of state defaults associated with the onset of Great Depressions. This time around, state financial instability will quickly spill over to public pension funds, and from public to private pensions, and from there to the municipal bond markets with which state and local governments raise revenue by borrowing to fund deficits.

    • Global sovereign debt markets, as previously noted. Defaults on massive debt accumulated since 2010 by many countries could result in serious contagion effects on the private banking systems of the advanced economies, including the US, Europe, and Japan. Should the IMF fail to contain a chain of sovereign debt crises that could follow in the wake of the current Great Recession, a chain reaction of defaults across emerging market economies in particular has the potential to precipitate a global financial crisis.

    History shows that financial crises often originate from unsuspected corners of the economy. The above candidates are the ‘known unknowns’. There may also lurk in the bowels of the capitalist global financial system still more ‘unknown unknowns’—i.e. what are sometimes called ‘black swan’ events.

    Political Instability

    The US and other countries are on new ground in terms of potential political instability. The piecemeal curtailment of democratic and civil rights has been progressing at least since the mid- 1990s. In the 21st century it has been accelerating, both in the US and across the globe. Recent years have seen a growing public confrontation between contending wings of the capitalist elites and their political operatives. Institutions of even limited capitalist democracy are under attack and atrophying. And now political instability is growing as well at both the institutional and grass roots levels. One should not underestimate the potential for even more intense political confrontation among elites, or between segments of the US population itself, from having a negative impact on the current economic crisis and 2nd Great Recession. A Trump ‘October Surprise’ or a November 2020 constitutional crisis are no longer beyond the realm of the possible, but even likely.

    The expectations of both households and business may serve as transmission mechanisms propagating political instability into more economic and financial instability. Political instability has the effect of freezing up business investment and therefore employment recovery. It has the further effect of causing households to hoard what income they have and raise the savings rate—at the expense of consumption. It also leads to government inaction on the policy necessary to provide stimulus for recovery.

    On a global front, political instability may even assume a global dimension. History in general, and US history in particular, reveals that US presidents seek to divert public attention from domestic economic and social problems by provoking foreign wars. Targets for US attack, in the short term, are Iran and Venezuela—especially the latter, which is more susceptible to US military action. But tomorrow, in 2021 and after, it could well be Russia (Ukraine or Baltics US provocations), North Korea (a US attack on its nuclear facilities) or China (a US naval confrontation in the South China sea)—irrespective of the unlikely success of such ventures.

    Like another financial-banking crash, a major political instability event—domestic or foreign—could easily send an already weak US economy struggling in the midst of a Great Recession into the abyss of the first Great Depression of the 21st century.

  • Chinese Ambassador Struggles To Explain Shocking Footage Of Handcuffed & Blindfolded Uighurs Loaded Onto Train
    Chinese Ambassador Struggles To Explain Shocking Footage Of Handcuffed & Blindfolded Uighurs Loaded Onto Train

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 21:11

    During a Sunday morning BBC news program, China’s ambassador to the UK Liu Xiaoming was in a rare segment asked point blank about viral footage which purports to show a terrifying scene from Xinjiang province of Muslim minority Uighurs being handcuffed and loaded onto train cars

    While the footage, which appears to have been secretly caught via drone, appears to be a year old or more, it resurfaced in recent weeks, gaining millions of views and reigniting allegations of Uighur people being mass shipped to communist ‘reeducation’ camps and sprawling detention centers

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    During the tenses Andrew Marr Show segment, Liu described Xinjiang simply as “the most beautiful place.”

    Showing the shocking footage which many observers said echoes Jews being mass loaded onto cattle cars during the Holocaust to be taken to their deaths, Marr pressed the Chinese ambassador with:

    “Can I ask you why people are kneeling, blindfolded and shaven, and being led to trains in modern China? What is going on there?” 

    To which Liu replied: “I do not know where you get this video tape. Sometimes you have a transfer of prisoners, in any country.” And Liu then questioned the authenticity and location of the video: “I do not know, where did you get this video clip?” 

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    Marr then said Western intelligence agencies and Australian experts have backed or ‘verified’ the clip, though this remains uncertain, to which the ambassador said tersely:

    “The so-called ‘western intelligence’ keep making false accusations against China.”

    He added: “They say ’one million Uighur has been persecuted, do you know how many population Xinjiang has? Forty years ago it was four or five million, now it is 11m people.”

    And addressing widespread, persistent accusations of ongoing ethno-religious cleansing of Chinese Muslims in the provice, Liu said: “People say we have ethnic cleansing, but the population has doubled in forty years.” 

    Marr promptly rebutted: “According to your own local government statistics, the population growth in Uighur jurisdictions in that area has fallen by 84% between 2015 and 2018.” Liu responded: “That’s not right. I gave you the official figure as a Chinese ambassador. This is a very authoritative figure. 

    The two also sparred over sanctions. “If the UK goes that far to impose sanctions on any individuals in China, China will certainly make a resolute response to it,” the Chinese ambassador said. “You have seen what happened between China (and) the United States. They sanctioned Chinese officials, we sanctioned their senators, their officials. I do not want to see this tit-for-tat between China-US happen in China-UK relations,” he added.

    And then this biting line: 

    “I think the UK should have its own independent foreign policy rather than dance to the tune of the Americans like what happened to Huawei.”

    The degree to which this video is or can be verified by US intelligence will be interesting. It could be invoked when potential further human rights related sanctions are rolled out, given the escalating tit-for-tat between Beijing and the Trump administration.

  • Ricin & Bombs: Police Investigate Psychotic Death Threats Against Michael Savage
    Ricin & Bombs: Police Investigate Psychotic Death Threats Against Michael Savage

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 21:00

    San Francisco police are investigating death threats against conservative radio host Michael Savage, which he says are the most “profane and twisted” he’s ever received, according to Breitbart‘s Josh Caplan.

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    The 78-year-old received a postcard and an email over a seven-day period. The postcard, postmarked in San Francisco, reads (with redactions) “On the road to xxx Mike could get hit by road ragers. Your sister. P.S. enjoy your xxx clerk coughed on.”

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    The email, sent via Guerrilla Mail – a service where received emails are deleted after one hour, is far more explicit, and contains violent, antisemitic murder fantasies against Savage as well as President Trump and his family. 

    In a telephone interview with Breitbart News, Savage said an anonymous individual replied to his appeal for information on July 13, emailing a death threat containing antisemitic, violent, and sexually explicit content. The email also contained threatening language directed at President Donald Trump and his children.

    Asked if he was concerned for his safety, Savage said that while threats are par for the course if you’re a high-profile conservative in the media, he’s never received such a profane and twisted note in his over two decades in radio. –Breitbart

    Email below, emphasis ours (warning: explicit language):

    Subject: die motherfucker die

    WOULD YOU JUST SHUT THE FUCK UP you fascist pig jew. We havent forgotten bout you jew. You thought we were gone but no we been watching and you been sloppy I know you been back to Aliotos jew you think I forgot about it noo I was going to send some ricin there or leave a bomb under a table but I need to get you FIRST and dont think I forgot them either. Im going to get you I SWEAR i am going to get you your done

    Im goin to make you hurt jew the way your fascist orange tiny dicked criminal imposter in the white house does all the kids he keeps in cages. Im going to come up behind you and shoot in the back so you cant move arms and pig legs and then while you are laid out screaming in the dirt Im gonn grab you by that hair and smash your skull against that concrete over and over while you scream until you stop jew and empty your skull on the pavement. We’ll get your dogs and wife too set them on fire to atone for your hate. Your days are over fucker just weight and our people are going to get Trump and his daughter and kids to just wait and see they will never be safe we will jump when they least expect and catch it all on video for the world. peopple will CELEBRATE they death to just wait. but i just cant wait to watch you die and  shut that big mouth FOR GOOD

    According to Savage, San Francisco detectives have notified the US Secret Service of the threats to Trump and his family, while Savage told Breitbart that he’s personally notified members of Trump’s “inner circle” of the threat.

    Savage, whose nationally syndicated talk show boasts more than 7.5 million listeners across 400 stations, told Breitbart that he hasn’t been to Alitos since it’s been closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, while he’s been avoiding “the Sicilian-influenced seafood eatery for over nine months” following a heart attack.

    “Alioto’s has been closed since Covid struck,” said Savage, adding “It’s been open for over 90 years and been through two world wars, though it may not survive California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s lockdowns.”

    This is nothing new,” Savage said of the threats. “Hitler used some of the sickest people in Germany to kill Jews. There are legions of people attacking people, just look at the protests we see today. They are turning the country into a burning cinder.”

    First, they go for the free speakers, then the First Amendment and on to the Second Amendment,” he added. “It doesn’t happen overnight. The key is to silence the opposition akin to insurgencies like we saw in South Vietnam during the war.”

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    This isn’t the fist time Savage has been targeted. In 2017, a man allegedly followed him out of Servino’s Italian restaurant in Tiburon, California, shoved his dog, and shouted something at the radio host dubbed the “Godfather of Trumpmania.” Another customer who intervened was punched in the face by Savage’s alleged assailant, according to the Mercury News. Both men claimed the other started it.

  • NYC Landlords Slash Prices On Third Of Rentals As Newyorkers Flee
    NYC Landlords Slash Prices On Third Of Rentals As Newyorkers Flee

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 20:45

    More than one-third of New York rentals were discounted during the second quarter as demand continues to slump thanks to the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic – including the flood of workers telecommuting instead of vying for limited rental space downtown.

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    According to Fox Business, rent prices were discounted an average of 6.7% ($221 per month) across 34.7% of New York properties in Q2 – with rents at higher-end apartments experiencing the highest cuts “as wealthy buyers have flocked to the suburbs since March.”

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    Demand will remain low as new hires, interns and students begin jobs and school remotely, and as many New Yorkers escape the city temporarily or permanently,” said StreetEasy economist Nancy Wu. As inventory piles up due to this lack in demand, even more landlords will need to make rent cuts, and rents will likely drop even further.

    The second quarter of 2020 marked the first time since the Great Recession that there was a year-over-year rent price drop in the metro.

    Meanwhile, StreetEasy saw an uptick in interest in Manhattan’s outer boroughs of Queens and Brooklyn.

    Wu said remote work makes commuting an insignificant factor in choosing an apartment location, which helps explain an increase in interest in Queens and Brooklyn. That’s a trend that will continue as long as social distancing orders are in place, she predicted.

    Rent prices rose in both areas during the second quarter – although at a modest and slower pace. –Fox Business

    According to Miller Samuel Inc. and Douglas Elliman Real Estate, Manhattan leases dropped 35.6% in June vs. the prior year, which followed declines of 37.7% in March, a record 70.9% in April and a 62.2% drop in May. This comes as Manhattan apartment sales dropped by 54% in the second quarter, the largest percentage decline in 30 years, according to Elliman. Median sales price fell 18% to $1 million, the largest price decline in a decade.

    In April, we reported that New York City lease agreements had plunged 38% in March y/y, the second largest drop in 11 years.

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    Weeks later, we noted how retail rents have dropped 20% across Manhattan.

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    And according to StreetEasy’s Wu, the Flatiron area saw the largest portion of reduced rents at 45%.

  • Do This Before Politicians Make You Pay Your "Fair Share"
    Do This Before Politicians Make You Pay Your “Fair Share”

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 20:30

    Via InternationalMan.com,

    Bloated governments around the world are faced with worsening fiscal conditions. Strapped for cash, they continue to squeeze every drop of wealth that’s within their reach through money printing and higher taxes. Today, we ask Jeff Thomas to weigh in on how to ensure you don’t become collateral damage in the next crisis.

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    International Man: We see this trend playing out around the world in the US, across Europe and in third world countries. Desperate governments are always in need of more capital. What does that mean for people who earn money and want to keep it?

    Jeff Thomas: The most direct answer is that, if they’re going to survive the situation with their skin on, they’re going to have to rethink the way they hold on to wealth. But more broadly, they’re going to need to understand that the crisis that’s headed their way is not going to look the same as the mini-crashes that occurred in 2000 and 2008. This one is going to be far more devastating for some jurisdictions such as the EU, US and Canada. In those jurisdictions, this will be an endgame situation.

    Historically, whenever this occurs, the big players – governments included – tend to scrape all the chips off the table, ignoring any previous rules of the game. At such a time, no government, no banking institution, no investment fund is to be trusted.

    This will mean that any monetary exposure the individual has with regard to these entities, should be regarded as sacrificial. By this, I mean that any exposed wealth is not necessarily certain to be lost entirely, but it’s quite possible. So any wealth that’s subject to the control of these institutions should be assumed to be wealth that may, suddenly and without warning, be confiscated or otherwise lost.

    The greatest difficulty in this is that traditional investments and stores of wealth may no longer be viable, and the individual will have to prepare for this eventuality now, before this occurs.

    International Man: To a large extent, everyone is forced to use and earn in US dollars, euros, pesos, etc. These are all paper currencies that are centrally controlled by governments looking to spend more and finance it with the printing press. How do people get what they earn outside of that system?

    Jeff Thomas: The answer to this comes in two parts. If the individual only does one, he may still lose everything he’s got. He has to do both if he’s to protect himself. The first part is that, if he lives in one of the endangered jurisdictions, he’ll need to expatriate his wealth to a safer location – a jurisdiction that’s less likely to head south in a crisis. In any crisis, there are always some jurisdictions that remain stable.

    These jurisdictions actually thrive in a crisis, as the money flows to them rapidly. There’s an old saying that says, “Money tends to go where it’s treated best,” and that’s especially true in a crisis. So, whilst some jurisdictions will be in crisis, others will actually prosper – and therefore be safer – than they were before.

    The second part is that, once you’ve liquidated all of your holdings that you can, at home, and have successfully expatriated the proceeds to a safer location, you want to get them into a form that’s as safe as possible. Unfortunately, in a crash, banks worldwide are likely to close without warning.

    In some jurisdictions, they’ll re-open once they’re assured that there will be no run on the banks, but in the interim, your access to your wealth may be frozen. In an overseas bank, this is better than losing it entirely, as you might have, back home, but it does limit your options for an indeterminate period.

    Therefore, once your wealth is expatriated, you’ll want to convert much of it out of cash. Real estate is an excellent choice in an overseas jurisdiction, as your home government cannot confiscate it. For one country to take land in another country is an act of war.

    The other choice is to buy precious metals and store them in the best facility you can, in the safest jurisdiction you can. In a crisis, the value of precious metals always rises, as does the demand for them. In such a facility it’s also possible to store cash. Unlike a bank, a storage facility doesn’t have the right to confiscate your wealth or to refuse you the right to withdraw it. That means that, as monetary events unfold, you retain the ability to control your wealth.

    International Man: In an effort to end America’s Great Depression, President Roosevelt made gold ownership illegal in 1933 – forcing people to turn in their gold in exchange for paper money. How do hard assets like gold, other precious metals and real estate stack up against any future attempts by a government to confiscate or tax it?

    Jeff Thomas: In any crisis, there are no guarantees. The best you can do is avoid being the low-hanging fruit. If you live in, say, New York, and all your real estate ownership is in the US and all your cash is in New York banks, you’re as exposed as you can get. The objective is to make it as difficult to take your wealth as possible. If all your wealth is in another country (or countries), your home country has to deal with another country’s laws and go through their courts in order to take what’s yours. Your objective is to make your wealth so difficult to go after that you’re too much trouble to bother with.

    I should mention that this approach is working well, as we speak, for those who are employing it. However, it may become essential in a crisis.

    Another fact to bear in mind is that, whilst politicians are forever complaining about those countries that respect wealth, those same politicians need a place to keep their own wealth in a crisis. Politicians who know what’s coming want to be sure that safer jurisdictions exist, and although they may rail publicly about those jurisdictions, they’ll privately want to be assured that they themselves will be able to use those same jurisdictions as their own back door.

    International Man: What should people consider in their decision to move their wealth and assets outside the control of unfavorable governments?

    Jeff Thomas: First, be aware that time is limited. We may have a year or two before it’s necessary, but a market crash could happen at any time. It’s always better to be a year too early than a day too late. Second, I always advise people to select the safest jurisdiction they can find that’s not too far to get to, if an emergency were to occur. For example, Singapore is an excellent choice, but for North Americans, it’s halfway round the world.

    Once you’ve selected your best option for an accessible jurisdiction, seek out a storage facility within that jurisdiction that’s not also a banking institution. The OECD, FATCA, etc., are in a great position to blackmail banks, but they can’t do the same to non-banking institutions. That’s one more layer of protection for you.

    If the laws of that jurisdiction protect you well, that means that a storage facility within that jurisdiction is protected by those same laws. Again, one more layer.

    International Man: What do you look for in a place that might be safe for your money?

    Jeff Thomas: I begin with those countries that have no direct taxation of any kind – no income tax, property tax, sales tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax, etc. (Remember – it’s much harder for any government to create a new form of taxation than to simply raise an existing tax). Also, as regards precious metals ownership, look for an absence of taxes or duties that apply to the purchase, ownership, storage or sale of precious metals. This ensures not only an absence of taxes; it also ensures an absence of governmental interference in what you do with your wealth. You can act quickly if you need to without having red tape tie you up.

    Second, you’d want a jurisdiction whose government has a consistent history for economic stability that caters to international investors. This is critical. It means that if that country’s economy is dependent upon foreign investment, the political leaders can’t change the rules on you without destroying their own careers. You want them to need you to do well, so that they can remain in their jobs. That’s your insurance policy when times are hard and political temptations are great.

    Finally, if you’re able to do so, financially, you’d want to have a bolt hole – a property in a jurisdiction that’s either going to be minimally affected by the coming crisis or will be positively affected. That’s something you’d need to create in advance, as, if conditions turned sour in your home country, you’d want to have your Alamo ready for you. You’d just pack a carry-on and go to the airport, knowing your destination was waiting for you. Making your wealth safe in a crisis won’t help much if you can’t get to it and get your family safe.

    I’m not predicting an “end-of-the-world” scenario here, but it would be wise to anticipate significant unrest that may be brief or periodic. Ideally, you’d want to sit that out someplace safer.

    *  *  *

    Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the trajectory of broke governments in need of more cash. There are still steps you can take to ensure you survive the turmoil with your money intact. New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey and his team just released a free guide that will show you exactly how. Click here to download the PDF now.

  • COVID & Trade War Crush L.A., Long Beach Ports In First Half 
    COVID & Trade War Crush L.A., Long Beach Ports In First Half 

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 20:00

    The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are still dormant, recording double-digit cargo declines last month, ending the first half significantly lower when compared with the same period in 2019, reported Los Angeles Daily News.

    Both ports are some of the busiest seaports in the US. The Port of Los Angeles reported this week that cargo in June fell 9.6% compared to June 2019. The Port of Long Beach reported an 11.1% decline in cargo last month when compared to the same period last year. 

    The plunge in containerized volume at both ports is due to coronavirus pandemic crashing the global economy with world trade sinking in the last several months. Even before that, global trade volumes were waning as the US and China were engaged in a fierce trade war. 

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    Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, warned  Wednesday containerized volumes at the port could plunge 15% this year when compared with all of 2019.

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    Seroka said the port is operating well below capacity at around 80%-85%, adding that, slumping trade flows will profoundly impact dock jobs. 

    “Less cargo means fewer jobs here at America’s port and we’re watching this very closely,” he said. “Our labor shift work for our longshore groups is down 18% compared to the same period in 2019.

    “Now, the double-hit is in full focus,” Seroka added, “with levels of cargo volumes not seen since the (2008) Great Recession.”

    Imports at the Port of Los Angeles fell 13.7% for the first half compared to last year, and down 7% in June compared with the same month the previous year. Exports plunged 18% in the first half and 21% in June. 

    Last week, Mario Cordero, the Long Beach port’s executive director, said, “canceled sailings continued to rise at a rapid rate in the second quarter as ocean carriers adjusted their voyages to a decline in demand for imports during the national Covid-19 outbreak.” 

    Officials at both ports warned recessionary forces are damaging consumer spending, resulting in a reduction in products from overseas and further suggested containerized volumes could continue to decline through the second half. 

    “We’re seeing a miss on just about every season we cater to,” Seroka said of shipments. “The spring fashion season has come and gone without real impact, back to school will not be anywhere near what we’ve witnessed in the past. And the trade peak season that’s normally in August will be relatively flat simply because you and I are not out at the stores on a regular basis.”

    Combined, both ports had 104 canceled sails in the first half, more than double the figure from 1H19.

    Depressed containerized volumes at North America’s largest seaports tells us a lot about the broader economy and indicates there’s no V-shaped recovery in the cards this year. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Trevor Milton Steps Into The Arena: The Nikola Motors CEO Interview
    Trevor Milton Steps Into The Arena: The Nikola Motors CEO Interview

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 19:55

    Submitted by TeslaCharts

    You might think Nikola Motor Corporation is the most overvalued pre-revenue business plan in the history of the stock market. You might think it is the poster child for the current bubble mania in green/clean technology stocks. You might think Trevor Milton, executive chairman and founder of the high-flying company, is merely taking a page from Elon Musk’s stock promotion playbook with his recent antics on Twitter.

    You might not think those things after listening to him on Episode #35 of TC’s Chartcast.

    To Milton’s credit, he recently sat down with noted Tesla skeptics @TeslaCharts and @Georgia_Orwell_ for a wide-ranging interview that lasted nearly two hours. With abundant energy and genuine enthusiasm, Milton fielded all questions head on. In an era characterized superficiality and empty sound bites, the conversation was refreshingly civil and comprehensive.

    Can the company overcome the many execution challenges it still faces? Only time will tell.

    The podcast can be found on all major platforms or directly at the link below:

  • Railway Politics: India Gets Lost Along The New Silk Roads
    Railway Politics: India Gets Lost Along The New Silk Roads

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 19:30

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    The ground is quickly shifting in Asia and India is quickly finding itself in a difficult position.

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    For years India has dithered and played games over central Asian development. Since the rise of Narendra Modi as India’s leader, he has played the game of courting both the West and the East to wheedle India a better position.

    Modi shifted India back towards a pro-West position immediately after taking over. He’s famously dragged his feet on major infrastructure projects in Central Asia, continuing India’s dreams of outmaneuvering China to become the central power of the Heartland.

    So, color me not shocked to see just days after the $400+ billion mega-deal between China and Iran is announced to be close to completion, Iran gives India the boot over delays involving an important infrastructure project.

    Four years after India and Iran signed an agreement to construct a rail line from Chabahar port to Zahedan, along the border with Afghanistan, the Iranian government has decided to proceed with the construction on its own, citing delays from the Indian side in funding and starting the project.

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    India has played footsie with Iran for two years now over major projects like this rail line since President Trump unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA and began his maximum pressure campaign on Iran.

    This all comes down to Modi who has pulled India away from Iran as the pressure ramps up versus being one of the few countries willing to flout U.S. sanctions back in 2012/3 when President Obama put them on the first time.

    Back then India and Iran traded oil for goods and/or local currency. India is still a major energy importer and they’ve purposefully strained relations with their energy-rich neighbor.

    Go back to November 2017 when Gazprom announced preliminary work on a new version of the long-delayed IPI Pipeline — Iran, Pakistan, India. Since that announcement very little work has been done.

    The IPI pipeline, like other major Russian pipelines, like South Stream, Nordstream 2 and Turkstream, has long been fought aggressively by the U.S. going back 20 years.

    We’ve pushed for the TAPI Pipeline to come down from Turkmenistan and through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. And, indeed, the Turkmen national gas company has laid the first 200 miles of the project to the Afghan border but it cannot secure the funding to go further.

    Urged on by the U.S. to begin the project, which was supposed to be finished this year, Turkmenistan is now stuck with an unfinished, uneconomical boondoggle since the U.S. could never deliver on its promises to control the ground needed in Afghanistan nor cut a deal with the Taliban to ensure its passage.

    The whole thing is a mess while the IPI pipeline remains stalled, exactly as Washington wants it.

    So now, with China moving in to secure Iran’s future, cementing their strategic partnership with both Iran and Russia, it’s clear Iran has run out of patience with Modi’s games.

    India, especially under Modi, has resisted China’s One Belt, One Road program, being one of the few nations to not send a head of state to the first OBOR summit in 2018. Even the U.S. sent an undersecretary, 3rd class to monitor things.

    But this is par for the course with India. They feel entitled to be the major hub in any future trade routes and that entitlement is fueled by U.S. promises of future rewards.

    Before their opposition to OBOR, which makes sense given the strained relations between India and China, India was opposed to being a strong partner in the North South Transport Corridor (NSTC) which connects St. Petersburg as well as points east in Russia, with a termination point at the Iranian port at Bandar Abbas as well at Chabahar.

    From there goods could traverse the Arabian Sea to Mumbai. The point of the NTSC is to create an overland route which drastically cuts down the time to bring goods from Russia to and from Southern Asia and the Pacific Rim.

    It is an important part of OBOR making Iran, not India the key geographical component to Eurasian connectivity and economic development.

    This railway from Chabahar to Zahedan was, in part, a concession to India as a spur off the NTSC to open up Afghanistan and satisfy its need to retain some semblance of control over the big picture.

    India and Iran have a relationship over Chabahar itself, upgrading its capacity. This was a major breakthrough for the Asian powers which India has now, effectively, thrown away because Trump told them to.

    Because it should be clear by now that despite still buying Russian military hardware, Modi chose Trump over its neighbors to the west and east. His aggression in Kashmir last year along with slow-walking this rail line, he’s been holding up central Asian integration for years, including his disastrous opening salvo in the globalist’s war on cash.

    Modi has been a good little foot soldier for the West.

    Sure he kicks every once in a while, but ultimately, he does what the U.S. wants him to do.

    The problem for him and India is now that Trump has raised the stakes on China as well as Europe in the hopes of keeping the petrodollar system afloat, he’s also trying to pull the U.S. out of region physically, leaving only the financial weapons behind.

    Trump wants out of Afghanistan. The U.S. will be forced out of Iraq and Syria. Iran will weather whatever Israel throws at them. Trump has already proven that he’s willing to fund proxies like the Saudis and the Kurds but he’s not willing to involve the U.S. in an actual shooting war.

    And because of this India’s foreign policy will eventually have to reconcile with its neighbors rather than its bigger dreams of replacing China as the rising power in Asia.

    Simply put, look at the Heartland now. Western influence is collapsing. Not only does Trump want out of Afghanistan but Pakistan isn’t coming back into the Saudi/U.S. orbit any time soon.

    China just splashed another $11 billion into Pakistan while its huge deal with Iran all but cuts the Saudis out of future oil exports to China. And if the Saudis do want to do business with China it will be on China’s terms.

    And those terms will be settled in yuan, not dollars.

    This is why I said last week that Trump has reaped the whirlwind in his dubious foreign policy towards the Middle East and Asia.

    In article after article I patiently explained how and why Trump and the U.S. had no real leverage over Iran short of bombing the country back to the stone age. That would never happen on Trump’s watch because Iran’s leadership would never do anything so overt as to invite that response.

    Even the attack on the U.S. bases in Iraq in January in response to Trump’s miscalculated assassination of General Qassem Soleimani was measured, precise and, officially, without U.S. casualties. If there was ever a moment for the Iranians to make a strategic mistake that invited Trump’s wrath, it was that.

    And once his bluff was called there, that was the end of Energy Dominance and the entire strategy of isolating Iran.

    Modi to me looks like another Erdogan, a political cockroach who thinks geography gives him more leverage than it actually does. He keeps overplaying his hand and now Iran has chopped it off for being an unreliable partner.

    The railway to Afghanistan gets built with Chinese money through the AIIB — Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. AIIB was developed to be a competitor to the U.S.-led Asian Development Bank (ADB) and it just got a major scalp.

    China and Russia will have access to not only the ports at Bandar Abbas and Chabahar but also Gwadar near the Iran/Pakistan border in Balochistan, which China has turned into a focal point for OBOR.

    By the time Modi is done playing his games India will have lost a lot of ground. Maybe that’s why despite violent clashes along the disputed border with China, peace quickly ensued.

    Because India can’t afford to push China away given the size of their trade relations. I’m sure Trump is telling Modi the U.S. will substitute in goods from the U.S. but that’s going to be a hard sell with China now a major partner with its neighbor to the north and west.

    The new silk roads are coming. India to me looks lost.

    *   *  *

    Join My Patreon if you hate trade wars. Install the Brave Browser to help fight Google’s War on History.

  • US Restaurant Recovery Stalls As Pandemic Reemerges
    US Restaurant Recovery Stalls As Pandemic Reemerges

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 19:00

    The virus pandemic is now surging in 37 U.S. states with caseloads rapidly increasing, and the resulting factor is a terrified consumer unwilling to shop at malls or eat at restaurants. 

    Before we dive into restaurant data via OpenTable, Axios published a fantastic visualization of where changes in new COVID-19 cases are occurring in the U.S. The map shows cases are exploding across much of the country, jeopardizing the recovery as governors in many states are either pausing or reversing reopenings. 

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    Nationwide, new virus infections have increased 21% since last week — and before were up 24% from the prior week. The reemergence of the virus has had a profound impact on the recovery, due mainly to several factors: the first, governors pausing or reversing reopenings; second, the human psyche of a virus pandemic reemerging with no vaccine is forcing people to hunker down at home and consume less. 

    OpenTable data of restaurants across the country shows the percentage of eateries taking reservations has plateaued in the last 20 days, coinciding with the latest virus surge.   

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    OpenTable found Arizona, California, Washington, D.C., Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Louisana, Maryland, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennesee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin, were states with restaurant reservations stalling in late June, or in some cases reversing through the first half of July. 

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    Readers may recall our latest reports on the stalling recovery: 

    To make matters worse, as the recovery stalls due to reemerging virus cases, there’s also a fiscal cliff looming, threatening to crash consumption if another round of stimulus isn’t passed. 

    Here are some of the reasons why a fiscal cliff is ahead: 

    • expiration of extended unemployment insurance,
    • the fading support from stimulus checks,
    • exhaustion of PPP
    • stress from state and local aid gov’ts.

    Combine this all together, and there’s no way in hell a V-shaped recovery will be seen this year. 

  • The Sordid History Of Scam Science
    The Sordid History Of Scam Science

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 18:30

    Authored by Roibert Wright via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    I went with scam science in the title partly because of the alliteration but mostly because Steve Milloy already claimed junk science. His Junk Science Judo (and website), Julian Simon’s Hoodwinking the Nation, Matt Ridley’s The Rational Optimist, and Thomas Sowell’s Intellectuals and Society are must reads if you are struggling, as I continue to do, with the world’s wacky reaction to the not-so-novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19. For those with insufficient time or inclination to read a thousand pages, I offer my synthesis here.

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    Don’t get me wrong, COVID-19 is a very, very serious disease for the aged and those with comorbidities. But it was never serious enough to merit locking down much of the world’s economy for months on end. Even an outbreak of smallpox or the Black Death would not have merited that blunt, top-down, one-size-fits all response. (Incidentally, while smallpox has been eradicated from the wild, cases of the bubonic plague still plague the western United States. No joke! This map is from the CDC, so it “has to be” correct.) 

    The socioeconomic and health effects of the lockdown are far-reaching temporally, geographically, and environmentally and will take years to sort out carefully. For example, while some cheer that fewer critters have been killed by vehicles because of the lockdown, few policymakers realize that right now in Africa a wildebeest or gazelle is being torn to shreds by a pack of ravenous dogs (Canis familiaris) that their owners can no longer afford to feed. (Fewer still realize that animals not hit by cars are likely soon to be mauled by a natural predator or killed by disease/starvation anyway. Not many expire from old age.) 

    What was also not-so-novel about the COVID crisis was its origin in scam or junk science. John Ionnnidis, one of the leading critics of weak scientific work, jumped right in to alert people and policymakers about the many problems with various predictive models but he was largely ignored despite being one of the most highly-cited scientists alive. That is actually not unusual. Even before the publication of Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring in 1962, Americans have been inundated with alarmist “scientific” claims that have not held up to close scrutiny. The problem is, they always hear about false claims but almost never hear about the retractions and whispered mea culpas (Latin for “my bad”). The net effect is undue pessimism about the state of the world.

    Most scientific scares are rooted in the extrapolation of current trends to the point of disaster or desolation with no thought given to the possibility of cyclicality, natural limits, or behavioral changes. Ridley jokes about the nineteenth century prediction that by 1950 the streets of London would be ten feet deep in horse manure. Unfortunately, real scam science is no laughing matter. Here is a partial list:

    Love Canal and Other “Cancer Clusters:” 

    Love Canal refers to a housing development built near an improperly capped toxic waste disposal site in Niagara Falls, New York, where the media reported a cluster of cancer cases. It turns out, though, that cancer clusters are random events simply more salient than places where, again by sheer luck, cancer is rare. Most cancers, it seems, are not caused by man-made chemicals. Many more carcinogens lurk naturally in foods like cabbage and coffee than in pesticides. 

    Dioxin, the main chemical culprit at the Love Canal site, was claimed to be so toxic that 3 ounces of the stuff would kill one million people. When 3 pounds of it was accidentally spread over a 700-acre town near Milan, Italy in 1976, though, the worst that came of it were cases of acne, even in the resident who had the highest level of the substance ever found in a human body. A 1983 study also showed that a control group had higher levels of chromosomal damage than Love Canal residents! Nevertheless, environmentalists tried to prevent people fully aware of Love Canal’s history from moving back in.

    Radon Panic: 

    Radon sounds scary because it is a radioactive gas. It comes from uranium deposits and its “daughters,” the isotopes produced by its decay, like polonium, pose a real risk to uranium miners. The risk to homeowners, though, was never clear, so the media easily hyped it in the 1980s into a full blown scare labeled “The Colorless Odorless Killer” by Time. Like SARS-COV-2, radon wasn’t really novel but the ability to detect it in the small quantities found in most homes was. The so-called precautionary principle kicked in and the next thing you know the EPA mandated testing and set a limit of just 4 picocuries per liter of air even though miners exposed to 12,000 picocuries showed no adverse health effects, forcing homeowners to spend billions on radon mitigation technologies. (If you think that spending helps the economy, read this.)

    Peak Oil: 

    Remember when the earth was proclaimed to be just a few years away from maximum oil production and a rapid rise in oil prices followed by a production collapse due to an absolute dearth of the stuff? It didn’t happen and does not appear likely to anytime soon. Production recently declined along with prices but due to a demand shock, the covidic global economy, not vanishing reserves. The world will stop using petroleum when its price rises above the price of substitutes, just like it stopped using whale oil when its price went above that of petroleum. Likewise, the Stone Age did not end for lack of stone.

    Superstorm Hell: 

    Global warming was supposed to cause a spate of tropical superstorms that would wipe out coastal areas time and again. Some big storms have hit and were hyped to the sky but there is no indication that they are any larger or more frequent than in the past

    Air Pollution Armageddon: 

    For all the talk of Greens, one would think that air quality is steadily degrading. In fact, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, sulphur dioxide, and various volatile organic compound emissions have been steadily decreasing for decades. Remember smog? Not many do, even in Los Angeles, the city with the worst air quality in America. But even in the City of Angels nobody dons gas masks anymore, except to slow the spread of novel coronavirus of course. 

    Turns out that “acid” rain, which sent me scurrying inside as a yute in the 1970s and 80s, was just slightly more acidic than regular rain. Although some predicted that acid rain would destroy all the forests in Germany by 2002, acidic rain did little to no net environmental damage then and has since become as rarified as smog.

    And what happened to the “hole” in the ozone layer that Neil Young ranted about in his 1989 song “Rockin’ in the Free World?” and that Newsweek likened to “AIDS in the sky?” It was always seasonal and limited to the earth’s three “poles” (North, South, and Himalayas) and now scientists say it is “closing,” showing that environmental “damage” need not be permanent. The ban on the main human-produced causal agent of ozone depletion, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), was relatively easily achieved because cheap substitutes were available. To this day, however, scientists have not shown that the “hole” was primarily man-made or that it caused any ill effects on humans or any ecological systems. And because CFC substitutes are less energy efficient, they may contribute to global warming.

    And that is just “hard” sciences like chemistry and physics. When we move into the biological and social sciences and nutrition, we encounter failed prognostications like:

    Overpopulation: 

    In middle income and rich nations, people are having fewer children, not more. Food production has outstripped demand, leading to lower food prices and more obesity, not starvation, in richer countries. Even in poor countries, famines are now rare and caused by governments, not absolute dearth. Even the fake New York Times now says that the human population will peak earlier than expected, in 2067 at fewer than 10 billion.

    Ecological destruction: 

    Ecosystems were supposed to collapse, leading to mass extinction. Instead, where property-rights have supplanted open commons, as with catch shares, natural resources like fisheries have stabilized and even rebounded. Many places in the United States sport too many deer, turkey, and wild hogs. The beepocalypse had no sting. Imagine that.

    Paving Paradise:

    In the 1980s, the government claimed that suburban sprawl was going to swallow up most of America’s farmland, which was losing all its topsoil anyway, leaving Americans dependent on foreign nations for bread. Turns out that the USDA grossly overestimated lost acreage and soil erosion and, miracle of miracles, conversion slowed and then reversed when farm prices increased. Despite those revelations, the media continued to harp on the “farmland crisis” for years. Much like a covidic cat, it “seemed to have nine lives,” Simon said.

    Death by Eggs: 

    About the same time, the media made eggs seem akin to a tasty poison, like alcohol. It is okay to have one or two every now and again but if you developed an egg habit, you were a goner. Then eggs became okay as scientists began to differentiate between “good” and “bad” cholesterol. Now many consider eggs a “super food.” Would I be less fat today if I had eaten eggs as a kid instead of “healthy” food like Sugar Coated Gluten Flakes? We’ll never know.

    Death by Apples: 

    I also avoided death foods like apples “tainted” with Alar, an allegedly poisonous chemical applied to apples to slow their ripening. Until, that is, the manufacturer withdrew it under regulatory pressure after a slick media blitz coordinated by an environmental activist group in 1989. Turns out, though, that Alar was way less dangerous than the high fructose corn syrup I consumed instead of my daily apple juice. To induce cancer in lab rats, scientists had to have them ingest the human equivalent of 19,000 quarts of apple juice … per day, every day, throughout their lives! Who knew? Arguably scientists and the media gatekeepers should have, but money and kudos flow fastest to alarmists with no stake in the underlying reality.

    Off-the-Charts Income Inequality: 

    The mere framing of this concept belies its real purpose, to redistribute “income.” If framed correctly, as productivity inequality, the “problem” disappears or begs the question why a few people are so much more productive than most others and why some produce nothing at all. Hint: it is natural heterogeneity plus stochastic processes layered onto inequality-enhancing government regulations, like minimum wages, interest rate caps, and rent controls. In fact, rich countries have far less income and wealth inequality than poor ones and inequality cycles up and down rather than making a beeline towards either extreme. Most disturbing of all, it appears that some researchers are willing to distort statistics to match their doomsday scenarios. Thankfully, they have been called out repeatedly but not before their “story” had become a “stylized fact” widely accepted by the media and Twitter rage monkeys.

    Why do scam science and flawed studies so consistently prevail?

    For starters, the world is a complex place where parsing cause-and-effect is a tricky thing, especially where living creatures are involved. Existence does not easily yield its secrets.

    Nevertheless, incentives all list toward preliminary studies with big, scary findings because that makes them novel and important and hence newsworthy. Even cub reporters know not to pitch their editors on stories with headlines like “Careful Scientific Study Replicates Previous Work Showing Small, Nuanced Causal Connection.” “Everything Will Be Just Fine If No Action Is Taken” is also a loser because it won’t sell papers or attract pageviews. Retractions of previous errors are also boring so they end up buried when published at all, leaving the impression that the alarmist hot take was correct even when it was clearly not.

    “Bad Things May Happen in the Future, Unless”-type stories, by contrast, are commercial winners. If adroitly done they do not even elicit backlash, allowing their perpetuation. First, note the weasel word “may.” Next, the amount of possible destruction and the distance of the prediction in time usually vary directly. Finally, the unless provides yet more wiggle room and a segue into policy proposals. When the world doesn’t end in a decade, everyone has forgotten about the article, the reporter is long gone, s/he wrote “may” anyway so s/he wasn’t technically wrong, and besides, one of the policy proposals was kinda sorta implemented so if anything the story “saved us” from Armageddon. Pulitzers and Peabodys all round!

    In 1983, ABC News reported on the unemployment situation in five states “where unemployment is most severe” without mentioning that unemployment was actually down in the other 45 states. That sounds a lot like recent COVID-19 “case” reporting by the New York Times and Washington Post. But if you intimate that such news is misleading, if not entirely “fake,” you get immediately smeared as pro-Trump.

    In fact, there is a lot of misleading to fake scholarship because even scholars who took clear stances and were proven wrong beyond the shadow of a doubt — on crucial matters of policy — somehow manage to keep their reputations intact. Nobody is perfect, of course, but why do people who are routinely wrong remain relevant, and even revered? Neil Ferguson, the physics-trained mastermind behind nine of the last one pandemic, is simply one of numerous examples that include:

    Rachel Carson: 

    As Roger Meiners, Pierre Desrochers, and Andrew Morriss showed in their 2012 edited volume Silent Spring at 50: The False Crises of Rachel Carson (Washington, DC: CATO), any of Carson’s remaining mystique is sheer mysticism. Except for lung cancer, cancer deaths are down and were even trending that way when Carson, a marine biologist, scared the bejesus out of almost everyone about the dangers of DDT, a pesticide that extended half a billion human lives by killing disease-carrying mosquitoes. She accurately claimed that cancer was the leading cause of death among American children but failed to mention that was because other childhood diseases, especially the communicable ones, had been conquered. Ironically, she died of cancer, a viral infection, and a heart attack, but her fame lives on.

    Paul Ehrlich: 

    In 1968, predicted the explosion of a Population Bomb that would kill most of humanity through disease, starvation, and war before 2000. That didn’t even happen in Africa much less globally. He claimed that life expectancy in America would drop to 42 years by 1980, a surprisingly exact prediction considering how far off the mark it was. This famous entomologist (insect scientist) also bet Simon that the prices of metals would increase and, infamously, lost. Yet Ehrlich remains an environmental guru. 

    Paul Krugman: 

    Has been wrong about almost everything since he won the Nobel in 2008 for his work on international economic trade theory and concentrated his efforts on the newspaper columnist career he began in 2000. His biggest errors are in labor economics, including the effects of minimum wage policies. See Contra Krugman by Robert Murphy for details. 

    When their views are directly challenged, such erudite individuals usually a) ignore the challenge and hope it goes away; b) belittle the challenger’s qualifications; c) label the challenge “simplistic” even though simpler explanations are generally preferred (“Occam’s Razor) and, as Sowell says, “evasions of the obvious can become very complex;” d) inaccurately ascribe to the challenge claims that are easily refuted; or, increasingly, e) insinuate that the challenger is a bigot or that her thought emanates from a presumably racist or sexist or fascist school of thought. In other words, they deflect instead of trying to defend the indefensible. That is perfectly natural as evidenced by the fact that small children also engage in such deflections, albeit more “simplistically.”

    What does this all mean? We have to return to teaching people how to research and think for themselves and not just mindlessly jump on #bandwagons while falling for gross rhetorical tricks. Light rail, it turns out, is just a new term for trolleys. Call low-lying areas where stagnant water accumulates swamps or call them wetlands, they are still just sloughs where mosquitoes breed. Not everything labeled racist actually is; some claims considered “woke” are deeply racist. Calling a piece of legislation the Affordable Care Act does not mean that it will result in more affordable healthcare. Shelter-in-place orders may just be a soft form of martial law that leads to bankruptcy, default, and unemployment, not safety. Most importantly, science might sometimes scam rather than save.

  • LA Mayor Warns "City On The Brink" Of Shutdown, Texas Sees Promising Slowdown: Live Updates
    LA Mayor Warns “City On The Brink” Of Shutdown, Texas Sees Promising Slowdown: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 18:09

    Summary:

    • Texas cases slow
    • WHO reported another daily record on Saturday
    • LA Mayor warns city “on the brink” of shutdown
    • Florida reports another 12k+ cases
    • Cali reports 9k+ new cases
    • Deaths slow in Florida, Arizona
    • US deaths eclipse 140k
    • Deaths slow in Florida, Arizona
    • Russia rejects vaccination theft accusation
    • Global case count tops 14.5 million
    • Georgia Gov sues Atlanta mayor over mask order
    • Hong Kong suffers biggest daily jump in new cases yet

    * * *

    Update (1740ET):  Texas saw a slowdown in newly diagnosed cases on Sunday, reporting 7,300 new  cases, which brought the statewide total to 325,030.

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    The number of deaths rose by 93 to 3,958, the Department of State Health Services said.

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    The Texas numbers capped off what was a mixed Sunday (though the weekend effect often skews data so the numbers reported on Sunday and Monday are slightly lower, with the backlog typically expressed by routinely higher numbers on Tuesdays). Though this isn’t always the case: Florida reported its record-smashing 15k+ new cases on a Sunday.

    US cases climbed 2.2%, surpassing the 1.9% daily average over the last week, according to JHU data shared with BBG.

    Elsewhere, Chile’s President Sebastian Pinera unveiled a five-stage plan to reopen the economy as the coronavirus pandemic eases in the Latin American nation for a fifth week.

    Finally, the World Health Organization reported early on Sunday that the totals reported from around the world on Saturday (remember, those numbers are reported with a 24-hour delay) marked the largest daily jump on record, and the first time a global daily total has surpassed 250,000. 259,848 cases were recorded, to be exact.

    The US, Brazil, South Africa and India, which topped 1 million cases on Friday, saw the largest daily increases. The previous record was 237,743 cases. It was set a day earlier.

    The WHO said the number of global deaths was approaching 600,000. It said 7,360 new deaths were recorded worldwide on Saturday, the biggest daily rise since early May. We expect the numbers for Sunday will be reported later in the US evening.

    In Spain, 4 million people living in Catalonia, in Barcelona and the surrounding area, have been asked to return to lockdown-level restrictions.

    Finally, circling back to the California news from earlier, LA Mayor Eric Garcetti – who said earlier that the city is on the verge of another shutdown – agreed with his interviewer that the decision to reopen the city so quickly was a mistake/

    “I do agree those things happened too quickly,” Garcetti said. Though, to be sure, those decisions were made at the state and county level.

    “We’ve had to do so much that is outside our lane because of the lack of national leadership,” he said.

    And it’s not like the White House was any help, according to Garcetti: “We were left on our own,” he said. There are more than 150,000 cases counted in LA County.

    * * *

    Update (1444ET): In Arizona, parents are latching on to slogans like “freedom over fear” and a “REOPEN our SCHOOLS” protest has been set for July 30 in Phoenix in support of Gov. Doug Ducey’s mandate that in-person classes resume Aug. 17, after the Deer Valley Unified School District delayed their start until Oct. 14.

    “All we want is our choices back,” said protest organizer Christina DeRouchey, the mother of four school-age children.

    Meanwhile, in California, the United Teachers-Los Angeles have won an indefinite delay to in-person learning. Some red states, like Florida, are pushing back start dates and boosting funding for protective equipment.

    But amid the chaos, teachers unions are seizing an opportunity to advance a ‘social justice’ agenda by trying to tie the return to classroom learning to “objectives” like ‘defunding the police’ that have nothing to do with learning. In a recent editorial, the Washington Examiner, a conservative-leaning outlet, no doubt, chastised the teachers union for putting “social justice warrior” politics above the welfare of children at a particularly delicate time.

    On Sunday, the largest state in the US reported 9,329 new cases, larger than the 14-day average of 8,487. New cases brought Cali’s total to 384,692, while deaths climbed by 90 to 7,685.

    As the number of new cases accelerated once again day over day, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti warned that the city is “on the brink of another stay-at-home order.”

    In international news, Russia’s ambassador to the UK rejected accusations that Russian hackers targeted British vaccine research and stole it via a cyberattack.

    * * *

    Update (1415ET): With all the biggest US states having reported their daily numbers for Sunday (with the exception of Texas, which typically releases its numbers around 1700ET), it looks like Florida stole the show once again. 

    For the fifth day in a row, the state has reported more than 10k new infections. On Sunday, the total was 12,478 cases, the fourth-highest daily tally (the state reported more than 15,000 cases in a day earlier this month).

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    However, the pace of deaths in the state slowed, just as they did in Arizona when that state reported its numbers later in the day. The death toll from the virus in the US eclipsed 140k this weekend (either on Saturday, or Sunday, depending on whose numbers you use). Worldometer put the total number at 143,136 as of 1400ET.

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    Across the US, at least 14 states have reported record coronavirus hospitalisations so far in July, including Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Texas.

    Globally, the number of confirmed cases topped 14.5 million on Sunday.

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    Circling back to Florida, 350,047 people have been infected statewide since the pandemic began. From Sunday to Sunday, the state posted a total of 80,236 cases, 740 deaths and 429,477 people tested, all record-breaking totals. By comparison, the state reported 69,700 cases, 511 deaths and more than 374,000 people tested during the prior week.

    Sunday also saw a new record for hospitalizations reported in a single week, with 2,700. A total of 20,971 patients have been hospitalized in the state, which is 339 more than yesterday’s total.

    In spite of this, Republican Governors like Brian Kemp are foolishly pushing back against Democratic mayors who impose mandatory mask-wearing orders (all while insisting that they “strongly encourage” residents to wear masks). At the end of the day, there’s evidence suggesting that mask wearing and other social distancing measures can greatly reduce the spread of the virus. And although we’d like to believe every person will make the intelligent, informed decision to wear a mask for their protection, doubling down on what can easily be construed as a politically motivated attack during a national crisis isn’t exactly a good look. Now, Kemp is suing Bottoms and trying to win an injunction stopping her from imposing any new orders.

    Meanwhile, Cuba celebrated a mileston on Sunday when it reported zero new cases for the first time in 130 days. Fortunately, the US trade embargo has helped shield the isolated Marxist-Leninist state, as it has largely been spared from the outbreak spreading across Latin America.

    * * *

    Once praised as a shining example of viral-suppression for the early and strict measures it took to seal its borders and implement strict test-and-trace protocols, Hong Kong has suffered a second wave of the outbreak that has intensified with dizzying speed.

    Hong Kong reported 108 new infections confirmed over the past 24 hours on Sunday. Of these, 83 were locally transmitted and 25 were imported. The figure was its largest daily total since the start of the global outbreak late last year. Of the locally transmitted cases, 35 were tied to existing clusters or infected cases, including those who had dined at Windsor Restaurant in Tsz Wan Shan and at Tao Heung restaurant in Mong Kok.

    Responding to the recent surge in new infections, which one of the city’s leading epidemiologists attributed to a particularly virulent strain of the virus that’s 30% more infectious, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced that quarantine and isolation facilities will undergo a major upgrade to fortify the city’s defenses against another resurgence.

    Hong Kong was one of the first cities to report cases of the virus earlier this year. But it had pretty much suppressed local transmission by the beginning of June. But over the past 2 weeks, the virus has made a stunning comeback, facilitated, experts believe, by an influx of foreign travelers. Many fear the virus is now spreading undetected in the city of 7.5 million which is also one of the most densely populated places on earth.

    During her speech on Sunday, Lam warned that more than 500 new infections had been confirmed over the past 2 weeks, bringing the city’s total tally to 1,788 cases and 12 fatalities.

    “I think the situation is really critical and there is no sign the situation is being brought under control,” Lam said.

    Hong Kong implemented new social distancing measures last week, ordering bars, gyms and nightclubs to close and making mask-wearing on public transit mandatory. 

    On Sunday, Lam laid out more restrictions. The city’s 180,000 civil servants would work from home for a week beginning Monday. All Hongkongers would be compelled to wear masks in indoor public places, not just public transit. Most restaurants must remain closed for dine-in service from 6pm to 5 am until July 28. Only four people are allowed per table.  Some 2,000 additional quarantine units will be built near Hong Kong Disneyland, while the AsiaWorld-Expo is being converted to house stable coronavirus patients. It can also be used to house vulnerable patients – like the elderly – should the virus find its way back into nursing homes and other care facilities inhabited by the most vulnerable.

    The government also urged schools to hand out diplomas to graduates on-line.

    Yesterday, the US counted a second straight record-breaking tally, while the WHO’s global tally also showed a second straight global jump. Here’s more on the situation in the US courtesy of Goldman’s state by state heat map.

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  • "Europe Is Being Blackmailed": Scandal Erupts As EU Remains Deadlocked Over Critical Recovery Fund
    “Europe Is Being Blackmailed”: Scandal Erupts As EU Remains Deadlocked Over Critical Recovery Fund

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 17:36

    It was supposed to be a “simple” European affair, where leading politicians sat down and agreed to spend all those hundreds of billions in debt that the ECB had agreed to monetize, thus providing a boost to their crashing economies. Alas, there is no such thing as “simple” in Europe, and after a third day of “marathon summit talks” – as the FT put it and for good reason as it is already the longest EU meeting since December 2000 – over Europe’s proposed €750BN response to the coronavirus pandemic on Sunday, the European Union once again failed to overcome gulfs that have split north and south, and east and west, and may send the Euro – which has soared in recent weeks – tumbling lower as without a finalized recovery fund Europe’s economy is set to disintegrate (even more).

    The protracted summit in Brussels, which began on Friday morning, has laid bare deep differences over the size, design and conditions attached to a planned multibillion-euro package of loans and grants designed to revive Europe’s economy after months of hibernation.

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    Yet even the biggest skeptics expected that it would be concluded by Sunday night, alas as Bloomberg reports European Union efforts to agree on the stimulus package faltered late Sunday “as leaders were unable to reconcile differences over how much of the recovery fund should be distributed through grants versus low-interest loans.”

    Sunday’s chaos was to be expected after the summit in Brussels was “suspended in acrimony” in the early hours of Saturday morning, after it became obvious just how stern resistance to handing out billions in grants would be.

    One direct consequence of the impasse is that the total €750BN facility has already been cut to at most €650BN as European Council President Charles Michel floated a new proposal that would reduce the size of handouts to 400 billion euros, down from an original 500 billion euros, according to a Bloomberg source. meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, joined by his Austrian, Danish and Swedish counterparts – known as the Frugal Four – rejected the new offer, and stood by a pledge to limit grants to 350 billion euros.

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    “Frugal Four”: Sebastian Kurz, chancellor of Austria, Mette Frederiksen, prime minister of Denmark, Mark Rutte, prime minister of the Netherlands and Stefan Lofven, prime minister of Sweden

    The impasse is hardly a surprise, as the Covid pandemic has pitted a group of richer “frugal” member states — Austria, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands — against the likely biggest recipients of EU pandemic emergency funds. But leaders also clashed over how to police countries’ respect for the rule of law, with Hungary’s Viktor Orban facing off against western leaders over proposals to hardwire respect for fundamental rights into the recovery plan.

    Meanwhile, the recently anti-frugal Germany, together with France, who have the backing of most of the bloc, are insistent that at least €400 billion of the package must be handouts in order to shield the fragile economies of southern Europe from the worst effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

    And just as Germany was bashed by Europe’s Mediterranean states, now it is the Netherlands’ turn to become the most hated nation in Europe.  As the FT reported on Saturday quoting diplomats, “much of the ire at the summit table was directed at Mark Rutte. The Dutch prime minister’s insistence on a national veto over the spending of recovery money led to tensions with other capitals that boiled over during an ill-tempered late-evening dinner.”

    The mood was summed up by a heated exchange over dinner when Boyko Borisov, the Bulgarian leader, accused Rutte of wanting to be “the police of Europe” by handing himself the right to decide if countries’ national reform plans were ambitious enough to justify EU financial support.

    Rutte told journalists after the dinner that his demands left fellow leaders “more irritated” but insisted that all countries were “fighting for their view”.

    Needless to say, the mood wasn’t any better by Sunday, when Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that “Europe is being blackmailed,” as frustration with the Dutch-led group boiled over.

    Still, despite the inability to find a consensus over the size of the stimulus package, there is still hope and talks continued into the evening.

    Europe has long had a habit of getting “deals” done just milliseconds before the final deadline and this time is expected to follow along, especially since investors have already priced in a deal after a series of bold announcements in recent weeks, leaving leaders under intense pressure to bridge their differences before financial markets open on Monday. Yet as Bloomberg notes, “they’ve largely been going around in circles since talks began on Friday morning as they struggle to bridge the familiar fault lines between the richer North and the southern countries worst affected by the pandemic.”

    “Ideally the agreement should be ambitious in terms of size and composition of the package, broadly along the lines of what has been proposed by the commission,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in response to a question from Reuters. “It is better to agree on an ambitious facility even if it takes a bit more time.”

    That said, one can’t really blame Rutte for refusing to drown future generations of Europeans in massive debt. In fact, one can argue that the “Frugal four” is the last bastion of fiscal conservatism anywhere in the world.

    Rutte and his allies have been trying to water down the handouts that the highly indebted South sees as critical for shoring up its finances. While Saturday proved less bad-tempered and more constructive than Friday’s gathering, it was still difficult to discern much progress.

    “Until now what we have seen is the commission, the president of the council and the majority of member states making an effort to come closer to four countries,” Portugal’s Antonio Costa said. “They also have to make some effort.”

    The 27 leaders are meeting in person for the first time since February, when initial talks over the EU’s seven-year, 1 trillion-euro budget also ran into the buffers. Now, facing a devastated economy, “investors are looking to the group to muster a display of unity to maintain the rally in stocks” as Bloomberg puts it because just imagine an insane world where stocks … gasp… drop!

    “The will to find a compromise should not make us renounce the legitimate ambitions which we must have,” Macron said Sunday. “In the coming hours we will see if the two are compatible.”

    “Things are moving in a fairer direction,” Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said. “I personally would find it a real shame if it was abandoned.”

    Meanwhile, in keeping with the European tradition of herding cats, the deliberations have proven to be a baptism of fire for Michel, the former Belgian Prime Minister, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who drew up the original plan. They only took up their jobs in December and have faced stinging criticism from governments over their handling of the pandemic response.

    Merkel and Macron have been pressing for an agreement before the summer but haven’t yet been able to bring their weight to bear to force a result. The bloc’s two largest economies are seen as crucial power brokers and they were photographed sitting on a sunny terrace as they searched for a breakthrough.

    “We’re entering the third day of talks and it certainly is the decisive one,” Merkel said on Sunday morning. “It’s possible there will be no agreement today.” And with just a few minutes left until Sunday becomes Monday, Merkel will likely be right.

    * * *

    Finally, here are some less then upbeat thoughts from Saxo’s Head of Macro Analysis, Christopher Dembik, who is right in concluding that this will represent another “missed opportunity for the EU to create a powerful solidarity instrument based on debt mutualisation that would be macro-significant and constitutes a strategic move towards completing the monetary union. It also shows how deep is the EU fragmentation.”

    I have been following the EUCO meeting since it has started on Friday. Clearly, this is not Europe’s Hamilton moment, but this is a great telenovela !

    PM X. Bettel has just announced he is leaving EUCO for Luxembourg to lead a government council on COVID-19. He is planning to come back to Brussels later tonight…

    In other words, don’t expect any agreement to be reached in the coming hours.

    The best case scenario is a foul compromise in the night…It is already the longest EUCO meeting since Nice in December 2000…

    I see at least three main points of disagreements:

    • Over the rule of law (rift between East and West)
    • Over volumes of the EU recovery plan and governance (rift between North and South)
    • Over EU leadership (this meeting is also about the future balance of power in post-Brexit EU)

    I acknowledge it is probably too early to jump to conclusions but I think it is safe to say that if we get a deal in the night or later on in July, the original proposal is likely to be watered down – which means that this is again a missed opportunity for the EU to create a powerful solidarity instrument based on debt mutualisation that would be macro-significant and constitutes a strategic move towards completing the monetary union. It also shows how deep is the EU fragmentation…

    This is not what we have been dreaming of…

  • Three Charts That Show The Shift From Prospering Online Brokerages To Retail Daytrader Mayhem
    Three Charts That Show The Shift From Prospering Online Brokerages To Retail Daytrader Mayhem

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 07/19/2020 – 17:15

    The “Robinhood effect” is not only real, but is now flourishing thanks to the government handing out free money and unemployed “traders” sitting at home all day passing the world’s worst penny stocks (and Tesla) back and forth to one another with various cryptocurrencies, engaging in a version of “pass the hot potato” that is guaranteed to end in misery for all parties involved.

    But while Covid is catalyzing the change at a faster rate than ever, it was Robinhood’s introduction to app-based trading and no commissions that shook up the industry and opened the floodgates to these new traders.

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    In addition to an influx of new traders, it has also shaken up the model for online brokerages, who have had to match Robinhood’s “no commission” policy to retain their clients, leading to M&A from within the industry. They are doing this by selling their order flow, which means worse fills and slower service for clients while brokerage houses scramble to make up for the revenue they are losing from commissions. 

    It’s also why first-time traders are stunned to learn that their online broker routinely crashes during high volatility points in the market: the brokers are too busy pawning off their order flow and trying to maintain a near-impossible business model without trading commissions to actually spend money upgrading their infrastructure and bandwidth for volatility “aberrations”. 

    This shift in the industry was captured beautifully in a series of Tweets from Bloomberg’s Morgan Barna, CFA last week. 

    First, she shows how trading volume has spiked significantly in Q1 and Q2 of 2020, obviously attributable to the Covid lockdown and the introduction of new “traders” who have followed the herd, led by Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy, into the market.

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    Next, she shows how Schwab has seen its revenue per trade collapse over the last 5 years, as the brokerage has tried to keep pace (or in some cases lead the charge) for lower commissions to help bring in new clients. 

    For all intents and purposes, commissions no longer seem to exist for stock trades and have been almost totally priced out of the industry.

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    Finally, she shows that interest in creating accounts continues to rise. Among the surprises we’ve seen during the Covid lockdown has been the fact that Americans are actually saving money and paying off credit cards, instead of spending it, with the economy melting down and the government wiring them free checks.

    They are also putting this money into brokerage accounts, as you can see below:

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    This is, of course, enabled by the Fed, behind the scenes, doing everything it can to make sure that the NASDAQ continues to hit new highs despite what has been an unprecedented economic collapse in the country.

    When the average American logs on to Twitter and sees the President (or worse, Larry Kudlow) bragging about the market despite tens of millions of people unemployed, we don’t blame them from meandering toward the honeypot that our country’s public markets have become.

    Unfortunately, what comes up must come down – and the new retail traders being lured into the market with promises of neverending all time highs and commission free trades – will likely be the first blood shed when the Fed’s ponzi scheme is inevitably exposed for what it truly is and comes crumbling down. 

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Today’s News 19th July 2020

  • Global Times' Editor-In-Chief Answers If "There Will Be A War Between China And The US"
    Global Times’ Editor-In-Chief Answers If “There Will Be A War Between China And The US”

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 23:30

    In addition to occasionally provocative but mostly dreadfully unimaginative propaganda tweets, the editor in chief of China’s Global Times Hu Xijing represents a useful barometer of sentiment among Beijing’s top power echelons, which in a time when a new cold war has broken out between the US and China, can prove rather valuable.

    Which is why the following episode is rather informative in terms of how China views the current tit-for-tat in diplomatic and tech warfare between the two superpowers. In an op-ed in his Global Times, Hu Xijin writes that toward the end of his dialogue with Qiu Zhenhai, a Phoenix TV commentator on Friday night, in a video chat about the current US crackdown on China, a netizen asked: Will there be a war between China and the US?

    Here’s what Hu responded:

    First, as the strategic mutual trust between China and the US has almost evaporated and the US has strengthened its military presence in China’s close neighborhood, the risk of accidental military frictions between China and the US has increased compared with the past. Moreover, when and if such friction occurs, it will be more politically difficult to keep it under control through peaceful means or to stop it from simmering beyond peaceful intentions.

    Second, neither China nor the US wants a military conflict with the other side. Although both militaries are preparing for the worst-case scenario, neither wants a military showdown. There is therefore room for both sides to manage risks and avoid a military crisis.

    Third, China is peace-loving in nature. We have no ambition to establish hegemony and replace the US. We will not go further in the Pacific or the Indian Ocean to challenge US interests. China has a profound historical conclusion that a belligerent state will eventually perish. China is a cautious major country.

    Fourth, China has a very restrained definition of its core interests, all of which are as close as just on its doorstep. But if China, as a great power, is still subjected to serious military provocation, we have nothing to think about except for taking the challenge. China will take the call and will surely defeat the US on our doorstep. When it comes to our ability to mobilize people and resources to safeguard China’s core interests, when it comes to the will to fight to the end, Washington can hardly compare with Beijing, and Washington knows this better than we do.

    Even though I don’t know what the lowest ebb in US-China relations might be, I know China has a clear principle that makes hegemons like the US cautious when making moves around China. Of course, I hope that China and the US can manage all accidents well.

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    Taking this naive interpretation one step further, on Saturday Hu tweeted that “China won’t engage in a cold war. China will insist on opening-up to outside world, including to the US. Trump govt is the most active in starting a new cold war & decoupling, but it’s not in line with interests of American society, nor the interests of Europe. It can’t last long.”

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    Well, that’s one perspective. For a different, and far more realistic and pragmatic one,read the latest thoughts from historian Niall Ferguson, in which he explains that “China has already declared cold war on US.”

  • The Global Reset Unplugged & "The Deep State"
    The Global Reset Unplugged & “The Deep State”

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Peter Koenig via GlobalResearch.ca,

    Imagine, you are living in a world that you are told is a democracy – and you may even believe it – but in fact your life and fate is in the hands of a few ultra-rich, ultra-powerful and ultra-inhuman oligarchs. They may be called Deep State, or simply the Beast, or anything else obscure or untraceable – it doesn’t matter. They are less than the 0.0001%.

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    For lack of a better expression, let’s call them for now “obscure individuals”. 

    These obscure individuals who pretend running our world have never been elected. We don’t need to name them. You will figure out who they are, and why they are famous, and some of them totally invisible. They have created structures, or organisms without any legal format. They are fully out of international legality. They are a forefront for the Beast. Maybe there are several competing Beasts. But they have the same objective: A New or One World Order (NWO, or OWO).

    These obscure individuals are running, for example, The World Economic Forum (WEF – representing Big Industry, Big Finance and Big Fame), the Group of 7 – G7, the Group of 20 – G20 (the leaders of the economically” strongest” nations). There are also some lesser entities, called the Bilderberg Society, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Chatham House and more.

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    The members of all of them are overlapping. Even this expanded forefront combined represents less than 0.001%. They all have superimposed themselves over sovereign national elected and constitutional governments, and over THE multinational world body, the United Nations, the UN.

    In fact, they have coopted the UN to do their bidding. UN Director Generals, as well as the DGs of the multiple UN-suborganizations, are chosen  mostly by the US, with the consenting nod of their European vassals – according to the candidate’s political and psychological profile. If his or her ‘performance’ as head of the UN or head of one of the UN suborganizations fails, his or her days are counted. Coopted or created by the Beast(s) are also, the European Union, the Bretton Woods Organizations, World Bank and IMF, as well as the World Trade Organization (WTO) – and – make no mistake – the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. It has no teeth. Just to make sure the law is always on the side of the lawless.

    In addition to the key international financial institutions, WB and IMF, there are the so-called regional development banks and similar financial institutions, keeping the countries of their respective regions in check.

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    In the end its financial or debt-economy that controls everything. Western neoliberal banditry has created a system, where political disobedience can be punished by economic oppression or outright theft of national assets in international territories. The system’s common denominator is the (still) omnipresent US-dollar.

    “Unelected Individuals”

    The supremacy of these obscure unelected individuals becomes ever more exposed. We, the People consider it “normal” that they call the shots, not what we call – or once were proud of calling, our sovereign nations and sovereignly elected governments. They have become a herd of obedient sheep. The Beast has gradually and quietly taken over. We haven’t noticed. It’s the salami tactic: You cut off slice by tiny slice and when the salami is gone, you realize that you have nothing left, that your freedom, your civil and human rights are gone. By then it’s too late. Case in point is the US Patriot Act. It was prepared way before 9/11. Once 9/11 “happened”, the Patriot Legislation was whizzed through Congress in no time – for the people’s future protection – people called for it for fear – and – bingo, the Patriot Act took about 90% of the American population’s freedom and civil rights away. For good.

    We have become enslaved to the Beast. The Beast calls the shots on boom or bust of our economies, on who should be shackled by debt, when and where a pandemic should break out, and on the conditions of surviving the pandemic, for example, social confinement. And to top it all off – the instruments the Beast uses, very cleverly, are a tiny-tiny invisible enemy, called a virus, and a huge but also invisible monster, called FEAR. That keeps us off the street, off reunions with our friends, and off our social entertainment, theatre, sports, or a picnic in the park.

    Soon the Beast will decide who will live and who will die, literally – if we let it. This may be not far away. Another wave of pandemic and people may beg, yell and scream for a vaccine, for their death knell, and for the super bonanza of Big Pharma – and towards the objectives of the eugenicists blatantly roaming the world – see this. There is still time to collectively say NO. Collectively and solidarily.

    Take the latest case of blatant imposture. Conveniently, after the first wave of Covid-19 had passed, at least in the Global North, where the major world decisions are made, in early June 2020, the unelected WEF Chairman, Klaus Schwab, announced “The Great Reset”. Taking advantage of the economic collapse – the crisis shock, as in “The Shock Doctrine” – Mr. Schwab, one of the Beast’s frontrunners, announces openly what the WEF will discuss and decide for the world-to-come in their next Davos Forum in January 2021. For more details see this.

    Will, We, The People, accept the agenda of the unelected WEF?

    It will opportunely focus on the protection of what’s left of Mother Earth; obviously at the center will be man-made CO2-based “Global Warming”. The instrument for that protection of nature and humankind will be the UN Agenda 2030 – which equals the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). It will focus on how to rebuild the willfully destroyed global economy, while respecting the (“green”) principles of the 17 SDGs.

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    Mind you, it’s all connected. There are no coincidences. The infamous Agenda 2021 which coincides with and complements the so-called (UN) Agenda 2030, will be duly inaugurated by the WEF’s official declaration of The Great Reset, in January 2021. Similarly, the implementation of the agenda of The Great Reset began in January 2020, by the launch of the corona pandemic – planned for decades with the latest visible events being the 2010 Rockefeller Report with its “Lockstep Scenario”, and Event 201, of 18 October in NYC which computer-simulated a corona pandemic, leaving within 18 months 65 million deaths and an economy in ruin, programmed just a few weeks before the launch of the actual corona pandemic. See COVID-19, We Are Now Living the “Lock Step Scenario” and this and this.

    The Race Riots

    The racial riots, initiated by the movement Black Lives Matter (funded by the Ford Foundation and Soros’ Open Society Foundation), following the brutal assassination of the Afro-American George Floyd by a gang of Minneapolis police, and spreading like brush-fire in no time to more than 160 cities, first in the US, then in Europe – are not only connected to the Beast’s agenda, but they were a convenient deviation from the human catastrophe left behind by Covid-19. See also this.

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    The Beast’s nefarious plan to implement what’s really behind the UN Agenda 2030 is the little heard-of Agenda ID2020. See The Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic: The Real Danger is “Agenda ID2020”. It has been created and funded by the vaccination guru Bill Gates, and so has GAVI (Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations), the association of Big Pharma – involved in creating the corona vaccines, and which funds along with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) a major proportion of WHO’s budget.

    The Great Reset, as announced by WEF’s Klaus Schwab, is supposedly implemented by Agenda ID2020. It is more than meets the eye. Agenda ID2020 is even anchored in the SDGs, as SDG 16.9 “by 2030 provide legal [digital] identity for all, including free birth registration”. This fits perfectly into the overall goal of SDG 16: Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels.”

    Following the official path of the UN Agenda 2030 of achieving the SDGs, the ‘implementing’ Agenda ID2020 – which is currently being tested on school children in Bangladesh – will provide digitized IDs possibly in the form of nano-chips implanted along with compulsory vaccination programs, will promote digitization of money and the rolling out of 5G – which would be needed to upload and monitor personal data on the nano chips and to control the populace. Agenda ID2020 will most likely also include ‘programs’ – through vaccination? – of significantly reducing world population. Eugenics is an important component in the control of future world population under a NOW / OWO – see also Georgia Guidestones, mysteriously built in 1980.

    The ruling elite used the lockdown as an instrument to carry out this agenda. Its implementation would naturally face massive protests, organized and funded along the same lines as were the BLM protests and demonstrations. They may not be peaceful – and may not be planned as being peaceful. Because to control the population in the US and in Europe, where most of the civil unrest would be expected, a total militarization of the people is required. This is well under preparation.

    In his essay “The Big Plantation”, John Steppling reports from a NYT article that a

    “minimum of  93,763 machine guns, 180,718 magazine cartridges, hundreds of silencers and an unknown number of grenade launchers have been provided to state and local police departments in the US since 2006. This is in addition to at least 533 planes and helicopters, and 432 MRAPs — 9-foot high, 30-ton Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected armored vehicles with gun turrets and more than 44,900 pieces of night vision equipment, regularly used in nighttime raids in Afghanistan and Iraq.”

    He adds that this militarization is part of a broader trend. Since the late 1990s, about 89 percent of police departments in the United States serving populations of 50,000 people or more had a PPU (Police Paramilitary Unit), almost double of what existed in the mid-1980s. He refers to these militarized police as the new Gestapo.

    Even before Covid, about 15% to 20% of the population was on or below the poverty line in the United States. The post-covid lockdown economic annihilation will at least double that percentage – and commensurately increase the risk for civil turbulence and clashes with authorities – further enhancing the reasoning for a militarized police force.

    China’s Crypto RMB

    None of these scenarios will, of course, be presented to the public by the WEF in January 2021. These are decisions taken behind closed doors by the key actors for the Beast. However, this grandiose plan of the Great Reset does not have to happen. There is at least half the world population and some of the most powerful countries, economically and militarily – like China and Russia – opposed to it. “Reset” maybe yes, but not in these western terms. In fact, a reset of kinds is already happening with China about to roll out a new People’s Bank of China backed blockchain-based cryptocurrency, the crypto RMB, or yuan. This is not only a hard currency based on a solid economy, it is also supported by gold.

    While President Trump keeps trashing China for unfair trade, for improperly managing the covid pandemic, for stealing property rights – China bashing no end – that China depends on the US and that the US will cut trading ties with China – or cut ties altogether, China is calling Trump’s bluff. China is quietly reorienting herself towards the ASEAN countries plus Japan (yes, Japan!) and South Korea, where trade already today accounts for about 15% of all China’s trade and is expected to double in the next five years.

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    Despite the lockdown and the disruption of trade, China’s overall exports recovered with a 3.2% increase in April (in relation to April 2019). This overall performance in China exports was nonetheless accompanied by a dramatic decline in US-China trade. China exports to the US decreased by 7.9% in April (in relation to April 2019).

    It is clear that the vast majority of US industries could not survive without Chinese supply chains. The western dependence on Chinese medical supplies is particularly strong. Let alone Chinese dependence by US consumers. In 2019, US total consumption, about 70% of GDP, amounted to $13.3 trillion, of which a fair amount is directly imported from China or dependent on ingredients from China.

    The WEF-masters are confronted with a real dilemma. Their plan depends very much on the dollar supremacy which would continue to allow dishing out sanctions and confiscating assets from those countries opposing US rule; a dollar-hegemony which would allow imposing the components of The Great Reset scheme, as described above.

    At present, the dollar is fiat money, debt-money created from thin air. It has no backing whatsoever. Therefore, its worth as a reserve currency is increasingly decaying, especially vis-à-vis the new crypto-yuan from China. In order to compete with the Chinese yuan, the US Government would have to move away from its monetary Ponzi-scheme, by separating itself from the 1913 Federal Reserve Act and print her own US-economy- and possibly gold-backed (crypto) money – not fiat FED-money, as is the case today. That would mean cutting the more than 100-year old ties to the Rothschild and Co. clan-owned FED, and creating a real peoples-owned central bank. Not impossible, but highly improbable. Here, two Beasts might clash, as world power is at stake.

    Meanwhile, China, with her philosophy of endless creation would continue forging ahead unstoppably with her mammoth socioeconomic development plan of the 21st Century, the Belt and Road Initiative, connecting and bridging the world with infrastructure for land and maritime transport, with joint research and industrial projects, cultural exchanges – and not least, multinational trade with “win-win” characteristics, equality for all partners – towards a multi-polar world, towards a world with a common future for mankind.

    Today already more than 120 countries are associated with BRI – and the field is wide open for others to join – and to defy, unmask and unplug The Great Reset of the West.

  • Jeffrey Epstein's Gulfstream Jet Listed For $16.9 Million In Florida
    Jeffrey Epstein’s Gulfstream Jet Listed For $16.9 Million In Florida

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 23:00

    The late financier Jeffrey Epstein’s 2008 Gulfstream G550 is now for sale in Florida, reported Daily Mail

    The private jet has been listed for $16.9 million. Epstein owned three private jets, including a Boeing 727, known as the ‘Lolita Express‘, a Gulfstream IV, and the G550 now for sale. 

    The G550 was manufactured in 2008 and refitted with a new interior and repainted dark blue several years ago. 

    The tail number on the plane reads N212JE. The aircraft flew mostly between Epstein’s homes in Palm Beach, Manhattan, Paris, and into the US Virgin Islands. 

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    Daily Mail had published pictures from within the G550, courtesy of aircraft sales firm Equus, showing what it was like in the life of Epstein before he mysteriously died in jail, though ruled suicide by New York City Medical Examiner’s Office. 

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    Equus said the jet had flown 5,747 hours and made 1,348 landings, powered with twin Rolls-Royce turbofan engines, with the capability of carrying 16 passengers. 

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    Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) records show Epstein’s company, JEGE LLC, acquired the plane in August 2013, then transferred to another of his company’s in January 2018, called Plan D LLC. 

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    Flight data via ADSBExchange show the plane flew 107 flights between January 2018 and June 2019. 

  • Technocrats Should Observe The Hippocratic Oath
    Technocrats Should Observe The Hippocratic Oath

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 22:30

    Submitted by Peter C. Earle, an economist and writer who joined the American Institute for Economic Research in 2018 and prior to that spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst in global financial markets on Wall Street

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    In some states, the lockdown reopenings are being reversed. We are seeing a new round of state versus state blame-mongering and recriminations. The new benchmark for normalcy to return is January 2021. Why that date? As with many benchmarks over these months, it’s completely made up. 

    We are supposed to believe that they know better than the rest of us, that government and not people and not medical professionals possess the essential knowledge we need. 

    As writer Bari Weiss commented in her July 14th New York Times resignation letter (albeit referring to the influence of hyper-woke Twitter intellectuals): “Truth isn’t a process of collective discovery [anymore], but an orthodoxy already known to an enlightened few whose job is to inform everyone else.” 

    Local knowledge, individual risk appetites, and personal responsibility are again being supplanted by the calculations and stratagems of technocrats. 

    All of which reminds me of Charles McKay’s Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. This book focuses on financial bubbles, and a particularly interesting portion of  it discusses disease panics as exacerbated by the forecasting experts of the early modern period. They, like their modern day descendants, thrived in an era of top-down, deferred-to expertism; not armed with massive reams of data and analytical methods at their disposal, but the similarly arcane methods of scrying and divination. 

    McKay sets the stage: The Great Plague of Milan, 1629 to 1631. In the role that today would be occupied by the media, Hollywood, or another source of perceived wisdom, a prophecy passed down for generations held that 

    in the year 1630 the devil would poison all Milan. Early one morning in April, and before the pestilence had reached its height, the passengers were surprised to see that all the doors in the principal streets of the city were marked with a curious daub, or spot, as if a sponge, filled with the purulent matter of the plague-sores, had been pressed against them. The whole population were speedily in movement to remark the strange appearance, and the greatest alarm spread rapidly. Every means was taken to discover the perpetrators, but in vain. At last the ancient prophecy was remembered, and prayers were offered up in all the churches that the machinations of the Evil One might be defeated. 

    Added to the fear of the disease were worries that a foreign government was at work, actively spreading the sickness.

    Many persons were of opinion that the emissaries of foreign powers were employed to spread infectious poison over the city; but by far the greater number were convinced that the powers of hell had conspired against them, and that the infection was spread by supernatural agencies. In the meantime the plague increased fearfully. 

    In a passage that reminds of early COVID-19 fears, long since dispelled

    Distrust and alarm took possession of every mind. Everything was believed to have been poisoned by the devil; the waters of the wells, the standing corn in the fields, and the fruit upon the trees. It was believed that all objects of touch were poisoned; the walls of the houses, the pavement of the streets, and the very handles of the doors. The populace were raised to a pitch of ungovernable fury. 

    “Snitch” policies directly reminiscent of present-day measures followed. 

    A strict watch was kept for the devil’s emissaries, and any man who wanted to be rid of an enemy, had only to say that he had seen him besmearing a door with ointment; his fate was certain death at the hands of the mob. 

    Violence predictably ensued.

    An old man, upwards of eighty years of age, a daily frequenter of the church of St. Antonio, was seen, on rising from his knees, to wipe with the skirt of his cloak the stool on which he was about to sit down. A cry was raised immediately that he was besmearing the seat with poison. A mob of women, by whom the church was crowded, seized hold of the feeble old man, and dragged him out by the hair of his head, with horrid oaths and imprecations. He was trailed in this manner through the mire to the house of the municipal judge, that he might be put to the rack, and forced to discover his accomplices; but he expired on the way. Many other victims were sacrificed to the popular fury. 

    Pity, in particular, poor Mora a “half a chemist and half a barber,” accused

    …of being in league with the devil to poison Milan. His house was surrounded, and a number of chemical preparations were found. The poor man asserted, that they were intended as preservatives against infection; but some physicians, to whom they were submitted, declared they were poison. Mora was put to the rack, where he for a long time asserted his innocence. He confessed at last, when his courage was worn down by torture, that he was in league with the devil and foreign powers to poison the whole city; that he had anointed the doors, and infected the fountains of water. He named several persons as his accomplices, who were apprehended and put to a similar torture. They were all found guilty, and executed. 

    (And in an era in which statues and monuments are being pulled down or defaced, “Mora’s house was [razed] to the ground, and a column erected on the spot, with an inscription to commemorate his guilt.”)

    While the public mind was filled with these marvellous occurrences, the plague continued to increase. The crowds that were brought together to witness the executions, spread the infection among one another. But the fury of their passions, and the extent of their credulity, kept pace with the violence of the plague; every wonderful and preposterous story was believed. 

    One Milanese resident described by McKay “had brooded over such tales till he became firmly convinced that the wild flights of his own fancy were realities.” Telling a story about an invisible phantom chariot and demonic laboratories, a story which at any other time would have been met with derision, was suddenly (as certainly occurs today) infused with credibility:

    [T]he minds of the people were so impressed with the idea that scores of witnesses, half crazed by disease, came forward to swear that they also had seen the diabolical stranger, and had heard his chariot, drawn by the milk-white steeds, rumbling over the streets at midnight with a sound louder than thunder. The number of persons who confessed that they were employed by the Devil to distribute poison is almost incredible. 

    In summary, although there was indeed a disease spreading in Milan, 

    [a]n epidemic frenzy was abroad, which seemed to be as contagious as the plague. Imagination was as disordered as the body, and day after day persons came voluntarily forward to accuse themselves. They generally had the marks of disease upon them, and some died in the act of confession. 

    The conclusion, according to McKay? The soothsayer prophecies, “by taking away the hope of recovery – that greatest balm in any malady – increased threefold the ravages of the disease.”  

    Looking at the lockdowns and the consequent leveling of tens and perhaps hundreds of thousands of small businesses – and the myriad other costs that such a policy brings – one wonders: is there no probity? It’s clear that the architects of schemes will never apologize; well, not really. But will they be held accountable

    Perennially, proposals are made that economists, data scientists, and other individuals with influential knowledge sets should, like medical doctors, have to take a Hippocratic Oath: an oath upholding fundamental ethics. 

    While the original Hippocratic Oath did not, as it does now, require physicians to “First, do no harm,” the modern reach of technically-skilled elites via the media and policy should unquestionably bring that dictum. 

    A Technocrat’s Oath would not be restrictive of the mere practice of model building, running simulations, or other present day vaticinations. Rather, it would come into force where and when the forecasts of those methods are passed to policymakers. For one thing, at least three requirements should be met; and all preferably publicly:

    1. At least three major sources of inaccuracy – whether found in deficient sources of data, questionable assumptions, or estimates of sensitivity – must be expressed clearly – must be expressed clearly before and after a prediction is made;
    1. A discussion of statistical inference must be accompanied by a discussion of causal inference (preferably an interdisciplinary one); and,
    1. Any prognostication which does not prominently feature uncertainty as a growing factor over time must be summarily discarded. 

    If professionals whose judgment can directly impact one person are bound to a strict moral code (in addition to bearing legal and reputational risk), shouldn’t technocrats informing the highest levels of government face considerably more stringent standards of practice?

    Perhaps another of the many effects of telling two or three generations of young people that a university degree is of unquestionable value is an undue veneration of the expert class. Many of our grandparents and great-grandparents, who had a formidable assemblage of wisdom but only a fraction of our formal schooling, were naturally doubtful in the face of boundless pessimism or optimism – especially when offered free of charge by bureaucrats from lofty heights of the Federal edifice. It was the people who lived through the Great Depression who offered such succinct quips as “You get what you pay for (and less),” and “It’s always darkest before the dawn.” 

    Whether by today’s standards or a medieval one, at a certain level of influence, unqualified prognostication is either ignorant, irresponsible, or deceptive. Pithy epigrams alongside basic skepticism, knowledge of personal hygiene, and a propensity to self-isolate in the face of illness have superintended the human relationship with microorganisms more than massive agent-based models ever will.

  • "They Just Take And Take" – AOC Aims To "Soak The Rich" With Proposed New York Wealth Tax
    “They Just Take And Take” – AOC Aims To “Soak The Rich” With Proposed New York Wealth Tax

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 22:00

    Despite the critical role she played in dissuading Amazon from bringing its “HQ2” to Queens (it was one of two sites chosen by the company after more than a year of searching), AOC triumphed over all of her Democratic primary opponents, including former CNBC reporter Michele Caruso-Cabrera.

    And earlier this week, a progressive Democrat successfully primary-ed longtime Democratic incumbent in a district that encompasses parts of the Bronx and Westchester.

    Although not every AOC-approved candidate in NYC has achieved this much, the city’s outsize community of mostly white college-educated “socialist organizers” has emerged as a political force capable of outmatching NYC’s ossified Democratic machine (shriveled after nearly 8 years of de Blasio’s ineptitude) Mayor De Blasio might be a committed progressive, but he’s not down for the revolution, man. The rose-emoji crew want to ensure that city offices are occupied by candidates that they approve. Which is why mayor-in-waiting Scott Stringer shouldn’t count his chickens before they hatch.

    Though her career in Congress has been marked by staggering displays of ineptitude, she has succeeded in her main objective: normalizing crypto-marxist policies like a jobs guarantee, UBI and the sprawling ‘Green New Deal’. And although her progressive bloc only counts four members (“the Squad”, as they’ve come to be known), a fifth might be joining them in the next Congress if Bowman triumphs in November.

    But after months of hard work in Washington, AOC is turning her attention back to NYC, with her latest campaign: A “wealth tax” to finance an emergency worker bailout fund for poor and undocumented New Yorkers.

    According to Bloomberg, AOC’s proposed wealth tax would tax the wealthy on unrealized gains in their stock portfolios. Currently, investments typically aren’t taxed until they are sold and a profit (or loss) is realized.

    New York would be the first state in the country to enact a wealth tax that targets wealth, instead of solely income (whether individual or corporate) and consumer spending. The state bill will be considered when the NY legislature returns from vacation on Monday.

    “It’s time to stop protecting billionaires, and it’s time to start working for working families,” Ocasio-Cortez said in a video directed at Cuomo. The message spread on Twitter with the hashtag #MakeBillionairesPay.

    Of course, there’s a small problem with AOC’s plan: the rich often hold large slugs of stock because of the power it bequeaths them to influence the board. For Jeff Bezos, his double-digit stake in Amazon is part of how he retains control over Amazon. If shareholders had tossed Bezos out during the aftermath of the dot-com bust, would Amazon shares be worth $3,000 a share today?

    A wealth tax would be a massive disincentive for every wealthy individual or family who falls under its purview. Many would probably follow Carl Icahn to Miami, or another Sun Belt state where taxes are much, much lower.

    As Lloyd Blankfein explains in a tweet. These types of extreme tax regimes often decrease tax revenue.

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    But as the public debate over the wealth tax advances, we suspect we won’t be hearing AOC delve into the finer points of tax policy. It’s much more effective to simply organize a protest and get all your media buddies to come out and photograph crowds with their “soak the rich” signs.

    The protest began at Madison Square Park, where Jeff Bezos spent $96 million creating his Manhattan dream home.

    From there, the small group marched to the Midtown offices of Governor Andrew Cuomo with a demand that has begun to grow louder as the pandemic grinds on: soak the super-rich.

    Friday’s demonstration in New York, and others like it, haven’t reached anything near the level of the Occupy Wall Street movement a decade ago. But this time, protesters have a hometown advocate in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the progressive lawmaker who this week joined a campaign demanding Cuomo pass a billionaires’ tax for New York State.

    “They take and take and take from our city and do not contribute, proportionally,” said Molly Glenn, 34, who works in construction and joined Friday’s protest. “You want to have an apartment here. You want to say that you are a member of the greatest city in the country. You should have to support the city.”

    To be sure, the 100 billionaires living in NY state contribute more than half of the state’s annual tax haul.

    And there’s a reason for that: She has no incentive to educate her voters on the drawbacks of driving away Amazon and the billionaires. Her political rhetoric plays on mass resentment of the wealthy. AOC’s willingness to pander to the “Occupy Wall Street” set by demonizing the wealthy is what made her stand out.

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    And what does it matter if the state’s coffers take a hit from all the wealthy leaving the state? AOC will forever be known as the socialist who drove out the billionaires like snakes. While the middle-class, college educated voters who comprise many of her most vocal supporters (think the hosts of the podcast Chapo Trap House) would never feel the sting of falling state revenues, the half of AOC’s district that’s Latino, and those who fall below the poverty line, might not be so forgiving.

    After all, it wasn’t long ago that AOC rallied support for opposing Amazon by focusing on the billions of dollars in on-paper tax incentives. However, she never delved into the full story: That those incentives aren’t coming out of the state coffers, rather they’re a discount on a hypothetical tax rate that the company would be paying only if it met certain obligations relating to economic development. Whether the deal was too generous was up for debate, but AOC argued that tax reforms are wrong on principle.

    With the state in desperate need of new revenue, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Gov. Cuomo, who has previously resisted more taxes on the rich, assent and agree to sign some version of AOC’s wealth tax proposal to help restore the state’s desperately low coffers.

    The sad irony is that such a move might exacerbate the situation in the long term.

  • Goldman: States Containing 80% Of The US Population Have Paused Or Taken Steps To Reverse Reopening
    Goldman: States Containing 80% Of The US Population Have Paused Or Taken Steps To Reverse Reopening

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 21:56

    Goldman writes:

    Reopening is on hold in most of the US, as states containing about 80% of the population have explicitly paused or taken targeted steps to reverse reopening. Over the past several days, Washington has placed its reopening on hold, and Pennsylvania has now ordered bars and nightclubs closed and imposed occupancy limits on restaurants events.

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    The number of new virus cases per day is either increasing or at very high levels in almost every state. While the acceleration of virus spread (Rt) has been less sharp than in the spring, it is still occurring at a rate that appears to be preventing state governments from pushing forward with economic reopening plans.

    While recommended federal criteria for reopening include a declining trend in case growth, governments may also pay attention to the level of new cases, which is also still high in many states, in deciding when it may be appropriate to return to an easing in restrictions.

    And here is Goldman’s latest state tracker:

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  • Kick The Culture War Off Campus
    Kick The Culture War Off Campus

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Jim DeMint via RealClearPolitics.com,

    America’s college campuses are the intellectual headwaters of the “woke” mob now poisoning the great rivers of freedom in our country. This mob has taken over the political left, devastated our cities and now threatens every American with traditional values and common-sense conservative views. 

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    Colleges and universities have been a bastion of liberalism and progressivism for so long it’s a cliché. But that cliché has led to complacency. Conservatives don’t like that college campuses have always been hotbeds of bad ideas – from communism to anti-Semitism to the so-called “critical theory” behind woke-ism. But the campus left has rarely been more than an irritant. Conservatives on the whole haven’t taken radical professors, brainwashed students and cowardly university administrators seriously because they were unserious people spouting unserious ideas.

    Indeed, serious people on the left usually treated the academic left with the same kind of head-patting indulgence as everyone else. Since the 1960s, campus progressives had stopped bombing buildings, and instead spent their time making up words to show off their virtue, like “womyn,” “Latinx,” and “cis-gender.” The scholarship produced by woke academics in nonsense fields like anti-racism, critical gender theory, and ecofeminism never spilled out into broader political or cultural debates. Colleges were dismissed as sandboxes where children played and occasionally fought, but never did any real damage. The expectation was that, however outrageous college woke-ness was getting, no one would ever take it seriously in the real world, so there was no need to pay much attention. 

    That turned out to be a mistake. 

    Now we know that at least some of the children and adults steeped in the anti-American, anti-Christian, anti-truth narrative behind the “Awokening” do indeed take it seriously. Some have taken it so seriously they have launched a nationwide crime wave. After all, if everything they’ve been taught is true – that America is racist and evil, that the Constitution is a weapon of oppression, that conservative speech is violent while progressive violence is just speech – then it was only a matter of time before some Chads and Emilys broke out the Molotov cocktails. 

    The wanna-be woke media covers up both their thuggish violence and their historical illiteracy (because mainstream media elites are among the most privileged people on planet Earth and would never survive if the mob ever turned on them). Democratic Party leaders look the other way – while rising left-wing stars like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez praise the mob – for the same reason. If Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer stood up to the mob, they’d lose. 

    And so it’s up to Republican politicians to fight back. Luckily, for the first time in a long time, the Republican leader is a fighter. And the fight Donald Trump should pick is defunding colleges that promote this insanity. 

     President Trump could drive a stake through the heart of the woke mob in a single stroke, by disqualifying colleges and universities who stand with the mob from access to federal funding, which amounts to nearly $150 billion from taxpayers annually from federal loan programs and research grants. Schools around the country have been cracking down on religious and politically conservative, patriotic students and professors – policing speech and punishing “thought crime” as if in an Orwellian dystopia. They are joining campaigns against Israel. Male students accused of crimes are prosecuted without due process. Students and faculty are disciplined for, among other things, re-tweeting scientific facts inconvenient to the left. Radical trans activists are trying to force colleges to treat trans women as women, full stop – even in eligibility for women’s sports and access to women-only safe spaces. 

    Additionally, it’s time for patriotic alumni to stop giving to universities out of nostalgia and demand a return to classical academic focus instead of woke brainwashing of our children. Each year, colleges and universities receive over $40 billion in private donations. And parents should seek out schools that reject the forced leftist agenda. A recent survey of Harvard faculty revealed that 99% of professors self-identify as very liberal to moderate, and only 1% admitted to having conservative-leaning views. 

    These aren’t just toddlers squabbling in a sandbox. The campus-led assault on free speech and equal justice – to say nothing of objective truth – are a clear and present danger to freedom, justice, and our constitutional order. And they are inspiring a rising generation of pseudo-fascists whose tantrums, however ignorant, are quickly amassing a frightening criminal rap sheet. 

    Washington should cut these frauds and thugs off the federal gravy train, and make their access to taxpayer money contingent on them actually serving the taxpayers and the republic. Let’s force holier-than-thou woke professors and deans to decide which they care more about, their culture war or their cash. 

    I think I know how they’d answer.

  • Face Mask Usage By Demographic
    Face Mask Usage By Demographic

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 21:00

    COVID-19 case rates are increasing rapidly in most states in the US, however, as Statista’s Willem Roper notes, people are reacting to it much differently than when it first appeared in the country at the end of February.

    For instance, while some states are closing down and requiring people to wear face masks, others are banning local officials from implementing mandatory face mask procedures. A new survey shows a few demographic facts on who’s wearing face masks who isn’t.

    A new survey from Gallup shows 72 percent of U.S. adults say they either always wear a face mask or wear one often when going to public places.

    Infographic: Face Mask Usage by Demographic | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Women, college graduates and Democrats responded the most that they often or always wear a face mask, while men, non-college graduates and Republicans had the highest percentages of those saying they either rarely or never wear a face mask.

    Establishment health experts have overwhelmingly claimed that wearing face masks can help stop the spread of COVID-19. However, after admitting they lied about NOT wearing masks early in the pandemic, and questions over the virus’ transmission routes has led to growing mistrust of media and government officials has built a substantial coalition of people around the country who refuse to wear one.

  • Trump Considers Afghan War Critic For Ambassador To Afghanistan: Wants "Full & Speedy Withdrawal"
    Trump Considers Afghan War Critic For Ambassador To Afghanistan: Wants “Full & Speedy Withdrawal”

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 20:30

    Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

    Amid a substantial US pullout from Afghanistan, the administration still doesn’t have a proper US Ambassador for that country. Reports, however, are that the short list includes a long-time war critic, Will Ruger.

    Though not nominated yet, Ruger is undergoing vetting, and has been meeting with officials. The Vice President for Research and policy at the Charles Koch Institute, Ruger has frequently advocated ending the Afghanistan War.

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    Troops in Afghanistan, US Army file image

    Though the US is heading toward ending that war anyhow, with so many officials taking a wait and see approach, having a proper ambassador who is known to want a pullout would be a clear signal the administration intends to complete the process.

    According to Politico:

    Ruger, a Naval Reserve officer who served a year in Afghanistan a decade ago, is aligned with the president’s thinking about the U.S. footprint in the Middle East and the wars in Afghanistan and Syria, and has been especially vocal about getting out of Afghanistan.

    “President Trump has correctly concluded that a full and speedy withdrawal of our troops is imperative,” he wrote in the American Interest in late May. “Our national interest isn’t served by continuing to wage a futile battle but by exiting it.”

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    The US is well ahead of its pullout schedule, down to about 8,500 troops in Afghanistan. Officials sayt hey want 4,000 by the election, and some are saying a complete pullout is possible by then.

  • Cisco Fires Employees That Question Black Lives Matter During Company-Wide Racism Discussion
    Cisco Fires Employees That Question Black Lives Matter During Company-Wide Racism Discussion

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 20:00

    In early June, dutifully doing its part to virtue signal along with the rest of the world, Cisco Systems hosted an “all hands on deck” meeting on race, hosted via videoconference. In the comments of the online forum, visible to everyone, some workers questioned the Black Lives Matter movement and were subsequently fired from their jobs, proving once again that you can have an opinion, as long as it’s the right opinion. 

    Chief Executive Officer Chuck Robbins talked with Ford Foundation President Darren Walker, who is Black, and Bryan Stevenson, a Black lawyer and author who founded the Equal Justice Initiative, during the company’s June 1 meeting in front of 30,000 employees, according to Bloomberg

    Several people spoke out online against Black Lives Matter during these online forums. For example, one employee wrote: “Black lives don’t matter. All lives matter,” while another wrote that BLM “reinforces racism”. A third employee commented: “People who complain about racism probably have been a racist somewhere else to people from another race or part of systematic oppression in their own community!”

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    Cisco says it fired a “handful” of workers for “inappropriate conduct” because it won’t tolerate racism. It also, apparently, won’t tolerate its employees opinions.

    The “incident” at Cisco (read: people expressing well reasoned opinions) has been a microcosm of similar situations at other silicon valley companies, who are left to try and figure out how to posture to the public they are concerned about racism, while at the same time not laying off their entire staff. Some believe that protests at companies could be next if employees aren’t “trained” to think the right way. 

    Kristen Clarke, the president and executive director of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, said: “Employers should be striving for zero tolerance when it comes to racism and discrimination, period. The protests we’ve seen in the streets have become part of our new normal and will eventually make their way inside workplaces if employers fail to meet the moment.”

    Cisco said that ultimately 237 comments of the 10,400 made during the videoconference “objected to what was being presented”, while the majority of comments praised management. On the video call, Cisco’s CEO was announcing a $5 million donation to “groups combating racism”. 

    Francine Katsoudas, Cisco’s executive vice president and chief people officer, said: “I just felt sad to see it. I felt a ton of empathy. I knew that for the African-American and Black employees that were in the meeting, that it was heartbreaking to see that.”

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    She then tried to backtrack and justify the firings because they weren’t considered “legitimate debate”. Katsoudas said: “You have a framework where red absolutely is crossing the line. But if someone has a question or they don’t understand something, there’s a way for them to ask that question. We went through and just placed things on that spectrum.” 

    The remarks were apparently so offensive they were “seared in the minds of some Black employees,” according to Bloomberg. One employee commented: “Wow…and these people work at Cisco?” If they are bold enough to say those things at work for all to see, imagine what is said behind closed doors.”

    Yeah, it could be differing opinions!

    “We still have work to do as a nation. I pray my daughters have a better world to live in soon,” another employee said.

    Meanwhile, we pray our children have a world where their first amendment right hasn’t completely disintegrated over the next few years. But with the direction things are moving, it doesn’t look promising…

  • "Putin Hacked Our Coronavirus Vaccine" Is The Dumbest Story Yet
    “Putin Hacked Our Coronavirus Vaccine” Is The Dumbest Story Yet

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 19:30

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via CaitlinJohnstone.com,

    OMG you guys Putin hacked our coronavirus vaccine secrets!

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    This week, mainstream media is reporting what is arguably the single dumbest Russiavape story of all time, against some very stiff competition.

    “Russian hackers are targeting health care organizations in the West in an attempt to steal coronavirus vaccine research, the U.S. and Britain said,” reports The New York Times.

    “Hackers backed by the Russian state are trying to steal COVID-19 vaccine and treatment research from academic and pharmaceutical institutions around the world, Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) said on Thursday,” Reuters reports.

    “Russian news agency RIA cited spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying the Kremlin rejected London’s allegations, which he said were not backed by proper evidence,” adds Reuters.

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    I mean, there are just so many layers of stupid.

    First of all, how many more completely unsubstantiated government agency allegations about Russian nefariousness are we the public going to accept from the corporate mass media? Since 2016 it’s been wall-to-wall narrative about evil things Russia is doing to the empire-like cluster of allies loosely centralized around the United States, and they all just happen to be things nobody can actually provide the public with hard verifiable evidence of.

    Ever since the shady cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike admitted that it never actually saw hard proof of Russia hacking the DNC servers, the already shaky and always unsubstantiated narrative that Russian hackers interfered in the US presidential election in 2016 has been on thinner ice than ever. Yet because the mass media converged on this narrative and repeated it as fact over and over again they’ve been able to get the mainstream headline-skimming public to accept it as an established truth, priming them for an increasingly idiotic litany of completely unsubstantiated Russia scandals, culminating most recently in the entirely debunked claim that Russia paid Taliban-linked fighters to kill coalition forces in Afghanistan.

    Secondly, the news story doesn’t even claim that these supposed Russian hackers even succeeded in doing whatever they were supposed to have been doing in this supposed cyberattack.

    “Officials have not commented on whether the attacks were successful but also have not ruled out that this is the case,” Wired reports.

    Thirdly, this is a “vaccine” which does not even exist at this point in time, and the research which was supposedly hacked may never lead to one. Meanwhile, Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University reports that it has “successfully completed tests on volunteers of the world’s first vaccine against coronavirus,” in Russia.

    Fourthly, and perhaps most importantly, how obnoxious and idiotic is it that coronavirus vaccine “secrets” are a even a thing??? This is a global pandemic which is hurting all of us; scientists should be free to collaborate with other scientists anywhere in the world to find a solution to this problem. Nobody has any business keeping “secrets” from the world about this virus or any possible vaccine or treatment. If they do, anyone in the world is well within their rights to pry those secrets away from them.

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    This intensely stupid story comes out at the same time British media are blaring stories about Russian interference in the 2019 election, which if you actually listen carefully to the claims being advanced amounts to literally nothing more than the assertion that Russians talked about already leaked documents pertaining to the UK’s healthcare system on the internet.

    “Russian actors ‘sought to interfere’ in last winter’s general election by amplifying an illicitly acquired NHS dossier that was seized upon by Labour during the campaign, the foreign secretary has said,” reports The Guardian.

    “Amplifying”. That’s literally all there is to this story. As we learned with the ridiculous US Russiagate narrative, Russia “amplifying” something in such allegations can mean anything from RT reporting on a major news story to a Twitter account from St Petersburg sharing an article from The Washington Post. Even the foreign secretary’s claim itself explicitly admits that “there is no evidence of a broad spectrum Russian campaign against the General Election”.

    “The statement is so foggy and contradictory that it is almost impossible to understand it,” responded Russia’s foreign ministry to the allegations. “If it’s inappropriate to say something then don’t say it. If you say it, produce the facts.”

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    Instead of producing facts you’ve got the Murdoch press pestering Jeremy Corbyn on his doorstep over this ridiculous non-story, and popular right-wing outlets like Guido Fawkes running the blatantly false headline “Government Confirms Corbyn Used Russian-Hacked Documents in 2019 Election”. The completely bogus allegation that the NHS documents came to Jeremy Corbyn by way of Russian hackers is not made anywhere in the article itself, but for the headline-skimming majority this makes no difference. And headline skimmers get as many votes as people who read and think critically.

    All this new cold war Russia hysteria is turning people’s brains into guacamole. We’ve got to find a way to snap out of the propaganda trance so we can start creating a world that is based on truth and a desire for peace.

    *  *  *

    Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for my website, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics onTwitter, checking out my podcast on either YoutubesoundcloudApple podcasts or Spotify, following me on Steemit, throwing some money into my tip jar on Patreon or Paypal, purchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my books Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone and Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge.

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  • Mexican Cartel Displays Show Of Force In 'Shocking' New Video
    Mexican Cartel Displays Show Of Force In ‘Shocking’ New Video

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 19:00

    A shocking video surfaced onto social media Friday, showing a convoy of armored vehicles with dozens of combat-uniformed gunmen who expressed their support for Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Menccho”), the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), reported Mexican newspaper El Universal.

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    All of the trucks appear American made and many seem to be outfitted with different levels of armor, along with stationary turrets on top. These types of vehicles are common to warzones in the Middle East. 

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    Commenting on the video, Alfonso Durazo, Secretary of Public and Citizen Security, said the government is investigating the video:

    “The propaganda video attributed to a criminal gang is being analyzed in order to confirm its eventual authenticity and temporality,” Durazo said. 

    “Regardless of this, we state that there is no criminal group with the capacity to successfully challenge the federal security forces, much less from that evident assembly,” he added.

    El Universal journalist Gabriel Guerra tweeted, “This video is truly troubling. Although its authenticity must be established, it speaks of an armed capacity comparable to or greater than that of many guerrilla groups. Each one will read different things, what I see is an enemy of the Mexican State and of all of us.” 

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    What the video suggests is that CJNG is well-armed and appears to employ combat-uniformed gunmen with high-caliber weapons and militarized vehicles. 

    Bloomberg noted, “The cartel [CJNG] based in the central state of Jalisco has spread across Mexico and increasingly has posed direct challenges to the government. Mexico City’s police chief blamed it for an elaborately planned attempt on his life last month — an ambush on the capital’s most famous boulevard.” 

  • Mueller And Weissmann Op-Eds Greatly At Odds With Their Report And Evidence
    Mueller And Weissmann Op-Eds Greatly At Odds With Their Report And Evidence

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 18:30

    Submitted by Aaron Mate of Real Clear Investigations

    In response to President Trump’s commutation of Roger Stone’s prison sentence last week, the Russia investigation’s two lead prosecutors published op-eds in the nation’s top newspapers that fueled the collusion narrative their own investigation failed to validate. As they chided Stone and others for alleged deceptions, both Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller and one of his top deputies, Andrew Weissmann, made claims greatly at odds with their official report, discrepancies that they did not acknowledge.

    Neither responded to emailed requests Thursday for comment.

    The Mueller op-ed, published in the Washington Post, does not just take aim at Stone – who was convicted for lying about his failed efforts to make contact with WikiLeaks regarding emails stolen from the Democratic National Committee in 2016. Mueller focuses, instead, on what he calls “broad claims that our investigation was illegitimate and our motives were improper.”

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    Andrew Weissmann: Now the prosecutor argues Roger Stone should be brought “before a grand jury,” something his probe could have done earlier but didn’t.

    In a bid to refute that criticism, Mueller begins by defending the FBI’s justification for launching the probe. “By late 2016,” he writes, “the FBI had evidence that the Russians had signaled to a Trump campaign adviser that they could assist the campaign through the anonymous release of information damaging to the Democratic candidate,” Hillary Clinton. The campaign adviser is George Papadopoulos, whose barroom conversation with Australian diplomat Alexander Downer served as the basis for the Trump-Russia probe. (Downer passed this tip to the U.S. government in late July – though Mueller writes “late 2016.”)

    Contrary to Mueller’s assertion, the record shows the FBI was not acting on any evidence that “the Russians had signaled” anything to Papadopoulos, but instead on the Australian diplomat’s recounting of vague hearsay — which Papadopoulos never relayed to anyone else in the Trump campaign. The bureau’s own documents make this clear. The recently declassified FBI electronic communication (EC) that officially opened its Russia investigation, code-named Crossfire Hurricane, states that Downer had told the U.S. government that Papadopoulos had “suggested the Trump team had received some kind of suggestion from Russia that it could assist” the Trump campaign by anonymously releasing damaging, yet “unclear,” information about Clinton and President Obama. Not only was this tip vague, there was no evidence that the “some kind of suggestion” actually came from the Russian government or even a Russian national.

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    George Papadopoulos: Mueller had no evidence that “the Russians had signaled” anything to the junior Trump adviser. But the Special Counsel wrote otherwise in the Washington Post on Saturday.

    Instead, Downer was relaying what he claims Papadopoulos told him about an unspecified suggestion he had received of Russian assistance. Papadopoulos later told the FBI that the suggestion came from a conversation with Joseph Mifsud, a Maltese academic. But Downer did not hear about Mifsud at the time, and his tip to the FBI accordingly made no mention of him. Regardless of the exact date it learned of Mifsud, the U.S. government has never formally claimed or presented evidence that he was a Russian government representative or was relaying information that he had received from Russia. (After leaving office, former FBI Director James B. Comey claimed without evidence that Mifsud was “a Russian agent” in a Washington Post op-ed.)

    The Mueller Report conspicuously avoided such a label. It instead stated that Mifsud had suspected “connections to Russia.” Its inventory of such connections is this: Mifsud was apparently in touch with “a one-time employee” of the Internet Research Agency (the private Russian social media company that Mueller indicted before dropping the case) about “possibly meeting in Russia,” but the investigation “did not identify evidence of them meeting.” Mifsud was also apparently in contact with a social media account “linked to an employee of the Russian Ministry of Defense.” At his congressional hearing one year ago, Mueller declined to discuss Mifsud’s identity or explain why the FBI had not arrested him after interviewing him in Washington, D.C., in February 2017. Mueller also did not explain why his office did not charge Mifsud for perjury despite claiming in its final report that he had made false statements.

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    Joseph Mifsud: The Mueller Report conspicuously avoided labeling him a “Russian agent,” but that hasn’t stopped Mueller from implying otherwise.

    Recently declassified December 2017 testimony from Andrew McCabe, the former FBI deputy director who helped launch and oversee the Russia probe, support these details.

    Speaking to the House Intelligence Committee, McCabe said the Papadopoulos-Mifsud tip was not considered evidence of a Russia connection. Asked to explain why the FBI never sought a FISA surveillance warrant on Papadopoulos, McCabe responded: “Papadopoulos’ comment didn’t particularly indicate that he was the person that had had — that was interacting with the Russians.” That admission not only contradicts Mueller’s claim that the “FBI had evidence that the Russians had signaled” something, it raises an important question for his team to answer: Why did the FBI open – and continue – the Trump-Russia investigation based on a hearsay comment from a Trump adviser whom they did not believe was actually interacting with Russia?

    After claiming that the collusion investigation was predicated on evidence of Russian outreach to the Trump campaign, Mueller’s op-ed turns to Roger Stone. The veteran Republican operative, Mueller writes, “lied about the identity of his intermediary to WikiLeaks,” as well as about “the existence of written communications with his intermediary.”

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    Roger Stone (center): A new Mueller claim is at odds with his investigation’s failure to establish that Stone had an intermediary to WikiLeaks.

    But that claim from Mueller is at odds with his investigation’s failure to establish that Stone had an intermediary to WikiLeaks. In both public and private, Stone claimed to have intermediaries, but as the Mueller team found out, they were two individuals, Randy Credico and Jerome Corsi, who never made contact with WikiLeaks. The only interaction that either Credico or Corsi had with WikiLeaks during the campaign came when Credico interviewed WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange on his radio show in August 2016. And the only known contact between Stone and WikiLeaks before the election came when WikiLeaks wrote Stone, in a Twitter message, to cease making “false claims of association.” This exchange was excluded from Stone’s indictment and the Mueller Report, and Mueller’s op-ed is no different.

    Mueller also makes a striking claim about Stone’s supposed Russian contacts and foreknowledge of WikiLeaks releases. “Stone became a central figure in our investigation,” Mueller writes, “for two key reasons: He communicated in 2016 with individuals known to us to be Russian intelligence officers, and he claimed advance knowledge of WikiLeaks’ release of emails stolen by those Russian intelligence officers.”

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    Jerome Corsi: Evidence showed he had no contact with WikiLeaks and no inside information of its plans, despite Weissmann’s suggestion to the contrary now.

    While Stone claimed advance knowledge, Mueller omits that he never asserted that Stone actually had such knowledge.

    Mueller’s reference to communication with Russian agents is likely the Twitter messages exchanged with Guccifer 2.0, the online persona that Mueller alleges was a front for Russian intelligence. Yet the only known communication between the two is in fact exculpatory for Stone. Stone sent Guccifer 2.0 just three short messages. None mentioned the stolen DNC emails. The closest they came to coordination was when Stone asked Guccifer 2.0 to retweet an article in The Hill. Mueller implies that all of this was grounds to investigate Stone, when it was evidence that Stone’s contact with Guccifer 2.0 was minimal and inconsequential.

    Three days after Mueller’s piece was published, the top prosecutor on his team, Andrew Weissmann, published an op-ed in the New York Times that went even further. While Mueller’s article tried to defend his investigation, Weissmann effectively called for it to continue: Stone, Weissmann argued, should be brought “before a grand jury.”

    Weissmann – now a legal analyst for MSNBC and preparing for the September publication of his memoir on the Mueller probe — bases his argument on the possibility that Stone hid incriminating information in order to protect Trump. Stone, Weissmann claimed (approvingly quoting the sentencing federal judge), “had been prosecuted for ‘covering up for the president.'” Stone, Weissmann added, was found guilty of “lying to Congress about the coordination between the Trump 2016 campaign, Mr. Stone, WikiLeaks and Russia,” and putting him before a grand jury would “get at the truth of why he lied.”

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    The Mueller Report: It doesn’t agree with what its lead author and his deputy write now.

    Yet Stone’s own case – and, of course the Mueller Report, which found no conspiracy — underscored that there was no such “coordination,” which is presumably why Stone was never accused, let alone convicted, of lying about it. The word “coordination” only appears once in his indictment: in describing the FBI investigation of potential Trump-Russia collusion, not in describing anything to do with Stone.

    Stone was instead convicted of making false statements to Congress about his failed efforts to obtain information about WikiLeaks during the 2016 campaign. Stone’s case and trial underscored that these efforts went nowhere: Both individuals whom he tapped as his intermediaries, Corsi and Credico, had no contact with WikiLeaks and no inside information of its plans. The suggestion to the contrary by Weissmann in the New York Times’ op-ed section is contradicted by the paper’s own reporting on Stone’s trial last year, when it noted that Stone “had no real ties to WikiLeaks.”

    Despite this, Weissmann goes on to suggest, without evidence, that Stone still has something to hide. “If there was nothing nefarious about his coordination efforts, why did he lie about them to Congress?” the investigator writes. “This question remains unanswered, as the Mueller report notes.” Yet the Mueller team has already answered Weissmann’s question. In revealing that the Trump campaign tried to learn about WikiLeaks’ plans through Stone – who had no inside information – Weissmann and his colleagues showed that the campaign had no “coordination” with WikiLeaks and no advance knowledge of its publications.

    Weissmann fails to mention that his own team of prosecutors consciously avoided the very action that he is now advocating. The Mueller team never interviewed Stone or tried to bring him before a grand jury after an exhaustive investigation of Stone and his associates. By November 2018, CNN reported, “[r]oughly a dozen of Stone’s current and former associates have been contacted by Mueller’s team for interviews or to testify before the grand jury.”

    The Mueller team’s pursuit of Stone included an engagement with Corsi that descended into farce. The Mueller investigators, the Washington Post later reported, spent more than two months “chasing tantalizing leads offered by Corsi,” even “dispatch[ing] FBI agents around the country to interview potential witnesses,” but, after “expending valuable government money and precious time,” found “themselves unable to untangle Corsi’s assertions.” This included multiple sessions with Corsi where Mueller prosecutors “spent weeks coaxing, cajoling and admonishing the conspiracy theorist, as they pressed him to stick to facts and not reconstruct stories.” They even delved into philosophical territory:  “At times, they had debated the nature of memory itself.”

    If, after all of this effort, Weissmann and the Mueller team thought that Stone was coordinating with WikiLeaks or had something to hide, they could have questioned him or brought him before a grand jury. But by the end of 2018, Stone was no longer claiming that he had a back channel to WikiLeaks and had corrected his prior statements to the contrary. Presumably, the Mueller team had reached the same conclusion after questioning scores of Stone’s associates and chasing down leads from coast to coast. And presumably, they would have expected Stone to tell them the same story under oath.

    That would have negated their ability to prosecute him, and it would have denied them an opportunity to advance the collusion theory with one final indictment. In January 2019, the Mueller team chose an off-ramp: Stone was indicted for making false statements to a House inquiry all the way back in September 2017. The Mueller team released a lengthy indictment that suggested a collusion angle, and conducted an early morning SWAT raid on Stone’s Florida home with television cameras present.

    Stone’s January 2019 indictment appeared to be the Mueller probe’s final act, the last in a series of cases that publicly implied collusion without ever alleging that such collusion occurred. These two op-eds suggests that effort continues.

    Weissmann and Mueller’s new public statements about Stone and the Russia investigation are only the latest in a series of contributions to the collusion narrative. In response, Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham has said that he will seek Mueller’s testimony. If Weissmann is summoned as well, this would be a critical opportunity, through sworn testimony under penalty of perjury, to get to the bottom of claims about the Russia investigation – although perhaps not the ones that the prosecutors behind it want the public to focus on.

  • World Suffers 2nd Straight Record Jump In New COVID-19 Cases As US Deaths Surpass 140k: Live Updates
    World Suffers 2nd Straight Record Jump In New COVID-19 Cases As US Deaths Surpass 140k: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 18:08

    Summary:

    • Texas reports 10k+ new cases for fifth straight day
    • Miami-Dade ICUs at 122% capacity
    • Global COVID cases reach second straight daily record
    • US reports record jump for second straight day
    • NJ cases continue to creep higher
    • Trump says he’ll hold “tele-rallies” instead of in-person campaign events
    • Xinjiang capital closed due to outbreak
    • US sees another daily record in COVID-19 cases
    • Florida reports latest numbers

    * * *

    Update (1536ET): Looks like the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases remained at record highs on Saturday, after states reported another record jump the prior day. The record-breaking numbers out of the US have contributed to the second straight day where the number of global COVID-19 cases smashed the existing record.

    There were 259,848 new cases reported across the world over the last 24 hours, according to a report from the World Health Organization.

    Total cases worldwide is now around 13.8 million, per the WHO’s count. As we noted above, the previous record was set on Friday, with 237,743 new cases.

    Additionally, the number of deaths reported Saturday was 7,360, bringing the total number of deaths worldwide to 593,087.

    Here are some highlights from the US:

    Texas reported more than 10k new cases for the fifth day in a row. Saturday’s 10,158 new cases bring the state’s total to 317,730 cases. 

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    Meanwhile, the state reported an additional 130 deaths, just a day after reporting highest daily total of 174 new deaths. The state has reported 3,865 cases statewide.

    Intensive care units in Miami-Dade County are at 122% capacity, according to the latest  data released on the county’s coronavirus dashboard on Saturday.

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    President Trump says he will hold “telephone rallies” instead of in-person events during his first “tele-rally” in Wisconsin.

    “I wanted to be with you, and this is really replacing our rallies that we all love so much, we had great rallies in Wisconsin and all over the country, and unfortunately until this gets solved, and we’re doing really well with the therapeutics and vaccines, but until that gets solved it’s going to be tough to have those big massive rallies, so I’m doing telephonic rallies, and we’ll call them the Trump Rallies, but we’ll do it by telephone and we have a lot of people on the line and I appreciate it.”

    Indianapolis pushed back the start date for public schools another two weeks to August 17 via a vote of the state school board on Saturday. The decision comes after the state reported 800 new cases, its second-highest total.

    According to JHU, there are at least 3,670,005 cases of the virus confirmed in the US, along with 139,480 who have died. Worldometer has counted 3,822,604 cases and 142,755 deaths. And according to Worldometer, the US reported a second-consecutive record jump in new cases.

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    And deaths…

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    Meanwhile, New Jersey reported 309 new cases 16 additional deaths as the number of new cases reported each day in the Garden state continues to creep higher.

    * * *

    Another Chinese city has assumed a “wartime footing” and reimposed strict lockdowns along with aggressive testing and tracking after a cluster of cases was discovered yesterday.

    Except this time, the city being locked down also happens to be the capital of China’s northwestern Xinjiang Province, where CCP officials were recently targeted by US sanctions over their involvement in an extensive prison-camp system where 1 million or more of the state’s Muslim Uighur population have been imprisoned.

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    Though the virus hit the city during the first round of the outbreak, Party officials tasked with overseeing public-health in Xinjiang said that officials had tracked the latest cluster to Xinjiang’s capital Urumqi, according to the official Weibo account of the regional government.

    In Urumqi, local officials asked people not to make unnecessary trips outside the city, and asked that anybody who absolutely needs to travel take a test first. The government also carried out city-wide free infection tests, officials told the press conference as part of what the officials termed a “wartime” response.

    Director of the Disease Control and Prevention Center in Urumqi, Rui Baoling, told a news conference on Saturday that recent cases in the city were associated with a cluster of activities. All the confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections were reported in the Tianshan District, CCTV said. She didn’t say what activities were involved.

    “The epidemic has developed rapidly,” Rui was quoted saying.

    Xinjiang has so far mostly avoided the worst of the pandemic, which burst out of the central Chinese city of Wuhan (capital of the centrally located Hubei Province) in December and January (though there’s some evidence to suggest that the virus might have been spreading internationally and domestically prior to then). The province is rural and among the poorest in China. On Saturday morning, the region reported a total of 17 coronavirus cases, plus 11 asymptomatic cases (remember these data are reported with a 24 hour delay). Another 269 people were under medical observation.

    Urumqi on Friday launched an emergency response plan that placed the city on a “wartime footing” and called for the study of new cases, both symptomatic and asymptomatic.

    “The epidemic situation is generally controllable,” Rui was quoted as saying to state media.

    And while that may be true, the CCP isn’t taking any chances. The crackdown to suppress the cluster led the city to cancel more than 600 scheduled flights at Urumqi Diwopu International Airport, more than 4/5ths of total flights. The city also suspended subway services. Including the 16 cases in Urumqi, China reported 22 new cases over the last 24 hours, up from 10 a day earlier.

    Six of those were imported.

    China reported 14 new asymptomatic patients, up from five a day earlier.

    The outbreak in Xinjiang comes after the PRC’s capital Beijing suffered a flare-up of coronavirus infections last month.

    As of Friday, mainland China had 83,644 confirmed coronavirus cases, the health authority said. The COVID-19 death toll remained at 4,634.

    Meanwhile, the US set another record on Friday by reporting more than 77,000 coronavirus cases (77,233 to be exact) and 951 deaths. The US is now averaging just under 1,000 deaths per day. While the numbers are still nowhere near the 3,000/month that the CDC had once worried about, it still represents movement in the wrong direction.

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    The US set another one-day record with reported on Friday, prompting some hard-hit states to impose new lockdown measures, including the shuttering of most California schools. The 77,233 infections recorded by the Covid Tracking Project were accompanied by another grim tally of 951 fatalities.

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    On Saturday, Florida showed some signs of stabilization, with 10,328 new Florida COVID-19 cases overnight, bringing the total to 337,569. Hospital admissions climbed to 20,632 while the state reported another 90 deaths, bringing the total to 4,895 deaths.

  • Facebook Deplatforms Former Employee Who Questioned BLM/Diversity Narrative
    Facebook Deplatforms Former Employee Who Questioned BLM/Diversity Narrative

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 18:00

    Earlier in the week, we posted an interesting video from ex-Google and Facebook employee, Patrick Shyu, who explained why he thought “diversity” policies were creating more problems than solutions.

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    It appears the video, which went viral, did not sit well with the social media overlords of the ministry of truth, as Shyu has just been banned from Facebook, and shadowbanned from YouTube, after 10 years on the platform. As Shyu begins,

    “…just because you didn’t like something I said… for 10 years I said all great things and then one time I say something that you may not necessarily like, you disable my entire account and I lose access to all the past 10 years information… and there’s no explanation, no customer service, and not much an appeals process.”

    The former tech-lead exclaims that “this sounds more like high school drama than a company trying to be a platform,” adding that “it seems like they are maybe trying to swing the election again.”

    He also suspects, based on the sudden drop in traffic to his other site, that he has been shadowbanned by YouTube.

    “I think it is quite disturbing the age of censorship in which we are entering with most communication dominated by these top-tier tech companies… and almost all of these companies have certain political biases, promoting only certain viewpoints and blocking others.”

    They simply “don’t want to promote a open, free discussion,” he ominously concludes, “and there is no such thing as a neutral platform or means of discussion these days.”

    Of course, Shyu is not alone in being banned or shadowbanned for expressing a non-arbiter-of-truth-acceptable perspective… or even merely discussing such matters… and we suspect, before the election is over, he will not be the last.

    Watch the full clip below:

  • Krugman's Keynesianism Has Made Him Wrong about Much More Than Economic Theory
    Krugman’s Keynesianism Has Made Him Wrong about Much More Than Economic Theory

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 17:30

    Submitted by William L. Anderson, professor of economics at Frostburg State University in Frostburg, Maryland, via Mises.org

    “Let me tell you about Keynesian economists. They are different from you and me. They learn their mathematical models and aggregate terminology early and easily, and it does something to them, makes them proud and self-omniscient where the rest of us are circumspect, in a way that, unless you were born a Keynesian economist, is very difficult to understand.” (With apologies to F. Scott Fitzgerald)

    Paul Krugman, who apparently knows even the very hearts and inner thoughts of people who disagree with his pronouncements, from Keynesian economic analysis to the current state of American politics, does not like being reminded that he once predicted on the pages of Time Magazine in 1998: “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.” His full statement included:

    The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in “Metcalfe’s law”—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.

    As the rate of technological change in computing slows, the number of jobs for IT specialists will decelerate, then actually turn down; ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly.

    When asked about the quote, he declared:

    Well, two things.

    First, look at the whole piece. It was a thing for the Times magazine’s one hundredth anniversary, written as if by someone looking back from 2098, so the point was to be fun and provocative, not to engage in careful forecasting; I mean, there are lines in there about St. Petersburg having more skyscrapers than New York, which was not a prediction, just a thought provoker.

    But the main point is that I don’t claim any special expertise in technology—I almost never make technological forecasts, and the only reason there was stuff like that in the ’98 piece was because the assignment required that I do that sort of thing.

    Lest one confuse Krugman’s mea culpa with Jake Blues’s plea for his jilted fiancée not to shoot him in the sewer tunnel (Jake had the better excuses), I believe that what Krugman wrote is much more significant than what he and his supporters would claim. Krugman claims he was just engaging in thought provocation when, in reality, he was demonstrating that in spite of his Nobel Prize, his MIT degree, and his long record in being on the faculties of elite universities, his actual knowledge of real economics is deficient. Very deficient.

    There are so many nuances in his statement on technology that it would take most of the existing bytes in cyberspace to provide a complete commentary. Given that readers of this page do not possess that kind of long-suffering patience (and have better things to do with their lives), I will stick to a few items.

    If one were to ask a relatively educated person why the US economy has grown so much, the typical answer most likely would be “technology.” (That word seems to serve the same purpose as “plastics” in The Graduate—single word that is supposed to call up all sorts of symbolism.) Thus, as technology advances, the economy improves and so on.

    There isn’t much nuance with such a view, which often incorporates what Austrian economists call “homogeneous capital,” that is, capital that is perfectly interchangeable with labor, raw materials, and other capital. (This accounts for the smooth, convex, and continuous nature of the production function when economists present models of isoquants and isocosts.) But while such assumptions make modeling easier, they do not explain capital very well.

    However, the homogeneous capital (and homogeneous every other factor of production) assumption then permits Keynesians to assume that if government takes actions to “shift” the fictitious aggregate demand curve, the economy will produce more goods and employ more people. Just add money (the source is irrelevant) and the economy shifts. Just like that.

    If You Increase Spending, the Economy Will Grow

    To a Keynesian, this is economics. Like Ray Kinsella in Field of Dreams, who hears the voice saying, “If you build it, they will come,” a Keynesian hears a voice saying, “If you increase spending, the economy will grow.” There is no need to break down things any further, since the prevailing assumption is that more spending means more growth, especially since every good Keynesian knows that if we leave markets to operate on their own, people will save money, spending will fall, and the economy will implode into a morass of unemployment and idle resources.

    Given Krugman’s Keynesian mindset, it is not difficult to understand why he would absolutely fumble any prediction regarding the economic effects of the internet. While information is important (and Krugman gets that part wrong, too, as he underestimates the role of information in production and exchange), the internet has revolutionized retail, and by revolutionizing retail, it has changed the scope of production possibilities.

    Let us begin with retail itself. Envision a spring with potential growth, but the water from the spring is moved through a pipe with a one-inch diameter, which means the flow is limited by the capacity of the pipe. However, if we were to replace that narrow pipe with a pipe with a six-inch diameter, then the owner of the spring could increase production and enjoy more economies of scale. Taking it a step further, the spring owner can invest in capital that will expand the capacities of the spring, all of which means more accessible water for consumers.

    Applying that concept to the economy at large, distribution—and that includes retail—plays an important role in production, because the more efficient and economical the distribution of goods, the more can be made available to consumers. The larger the supply of available goods, the more prices of those goods will fall and they will be available to more people.

    Enter the internet. While Krugman might be one of the most influential economists in the country (at least via his perch at the New York Times), it is clear that he really understands very little about how the internet affects economic growth, and that should not be surprising given his Keynesian perspectives. For most Keynesians, there is a disconnect between flooding an economy with new spending and how that process actually brings about an increase in output and decrease in unemployment. J.M. Keynes himself argued in The General Theory that government monetary and direct spending activities would force up consumer prices, thus undercutting wages through inflation or, to be more precise, cutting wages en masse. Under Keynesian thinking, employment opportunities do not arise because of expansion of capital, but rather because of a trick played by monetary authorities. However, Keynesians do not explain how such schemes actually contribute to economic growth; we are to take it on faith.

    Furthermore, Keynesians also disconnect the relationship between production and consumption, with consumption having little more purpose than to clear the shelves of previously produced goods, thus allowing producers to make more goods to put on the shelves. And so on. Not surprisingly, Keynesians also misunderstand the role of capital, which in their “theology” is useful only insofar as money is spent to create it.

    With economists like Krugman unable to present a coherent causal theory as to why their schemes result in economic growth, one should not be surprised that Krugman is unable to explain the internet’s role in the economy. Part of the problem is that Krugman does not understand the relationship between lower costs and economic growth, instead believing that higher costs (and especially higher labor costs) are the engine of expansion. Like Keynes before him, Krugman insisted that inflation—the more the better—was another key to expanding the economy.

    In Krugman’s eyes, apparently the internet is mostly a mechanism for advancing social media in which he and his friends can label people they don’t like as “racist” or worse. Yet what is the commercial strength of the internet, and how has it promoted real economic growth?

    Austrian economists are best equipped to understand the internet’s impact, because they understand the role of entrepreneurs and capital. While Krugman has said in the past that productivity is key to economic growth, he then seems to believe that the way to achieve that growth is through high income tax rates, expansion of labor unions, and a return to the regulated New Deal cartels in banking and finance. Austrians, on the other hand, realize that the regulated cartels that characterized much of the US economy from the New Deal well into the 1970s were responsible for much of the economic stagnation that plagued the country before the Jimmy Carter administration moved to deregulate transportation, telecommunications, and banking and the Ronald Reagan administration worked with Congress to reduce federal income tax rates. (Before he came to endorse 70-plus percent tax rates, Krugman told a group of economists, including Joseph Salerno and I, that the pre-Reagan rates were “insane.”)

    So, if Krugman believes that raising business costs, increasing taxes, expanding the regulatory state, and covering all of it by printing money is the key to economic growth, he hardly is going give the internet any credit for contributing to a growing and productive economy. After all, the internet permits more workplace flexibility, enables retailers to better target their markets, reduces costs for both consumers and producers, and better enables economic exchanges. Economists such as Ludwig von Mises would have understood, and certainly Carl Menger would have realized that the internet better enables the development of the higher-order goods that Menger emphasized as the key to rising standards of living.

    In other words, Krugman’s wrong prediction was not just a silly error that resulted from an off-the-cuff remark. No, it perfectly reflected his inability to understand even the basics of economics.

  • "I Was Terrified" – 'Protesters' Fume About Feds Brutally Suppressing Portland Riots
    “I Was Terrified” – ‘Protesters’ Fume About Feds Brutally Suppressing Portland Riots

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 17:00

    On Thursday and Friday, #resistance and far-left twitter was abuzz with talk of a terrifying new force on the streets of Portland: federal agents wearing plain clothes and using unmarked vans to snatch up protesters and shuffle them to the nearest police precinct. Before the agents showed up, some brave locals complained that Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler and other city officials had simply let a bunch of “anarchists” set up their own version of Seattle’s “CHOP”.

    Unwilling to countenance another “CHOP”, President Trump issued an executive order calling for all federal statues and monuments to be protected against vandals and rioters. This resulted in the deployment of what some called “Barr’s Army” – a “violent gang” of federal agents who snatched up peaceful protesters left and right (nevermind the vandalism and destruction these demonstrations have caused since the death of George Floyd, including another bout of violence that emerged this week.

    WaPo has unsurprisingly lionized the demonstrations in stories with titles like “50 Nights Of Protest” and others. Last night, a video surfaced of ICE agents who had been deployed to the city

    A Reuters reported managed to speak with two protesters who were allegedly chased down by the cops in an unmarked van.

    Portland protester Conner O’Shea said agents chased him in an unmarked vehicle Wednesday while walking with his friend Mark Pettibone back to their cars. “I know they’re looking for people that are doing graffiti and laser pointing,” he said. “We haven’t done any of that, which makes it all the more scary.”

    “It’s horrifying and I think as Americans we’ve read about things like this happening in other countries, you know, in textbooks about the 70s, 80s,” he said.

    Interestingly, the name ‘Mark Pettibone’ popped up in a handful of other media reports about the ‘crackdown’ in Portland. The Washington Post shared Pettibone’s story, apparently taking his word for it: Pettibone told his sob story about being attacked and arrested by plainclothes officers in an unmarked van.

    “I was terrified,” Pettibone said. “It seemed like it was out of a horror/sci-fi, like a Philip K. Dick novel. It was like being preyed upon.”

    Newspapers like WaPo and other “legacy” media organizations have been using language like this to describe the police more frequently lately, as they quote protesters and leaders who repeat their hysterical remarks as if they were fact.

    As Pettibone tells it, he couldn’t tell whether the men confronting him were police or far-right extremists. After officers demanded that he stop, he said he ran for half a block before sinking to his knees with his hands in the air. Police searched him, then drove him to a holding cell, then released him shortly after. Now he’s demanding to know why he was detained and generally making a big deal about the injustice of it all.

    Oregon Gov Kate Brown and Portland Mayor Wheeler have denounced this federal intrusion. But when Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf landed in Portland on Thursday to assess the situation and report back, both officials publicly declined to meet with him.

    It’s just another sign that pandering politicians have internalized the far-left’s hatred of anybody who disagrees with their world view. Because a discussion might lead to a resolution, and then what would all these protesters do? As the protesters claim they were being snatched up by unidentified ‘agents’, DHS issued a statement directly contradicting this.

    Agents were in uniform, but they didn’t wear badges due to fears of personal safety. It’s the same line or reasoning that justifies using an unmarked van, a spokesperson for DHS said.

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    After visiting the city, Wolf released a statement that included a list of incidents DHS officers have faced in Portland since late May, and praised them in a series of tweets on Friday.

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    When asked by Reuters about Wolf’s visit, Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler said that while he was aware of the visit, he wished Wolf had sjust stayed in Washington.

    “We’re aware that they’re here. We wish they weren’t. We haven’t been invited to meet with them, and if we were we would decline.”

    Give it another month or so and we’ll see if Wheeler doesn’t change his tune. Because local officials are deluding themselves if they think appeasing these anarchists – anarchists who want to destroy America despite the fact that most of them are white and from relatively wealthy backgrounds – will work.

  • Declassified: Christopher Steele's "Primary Sub-Source" Was His Own Employee; NYT Russiagate Propaganda Shredded By Strzok Comments
    Declassified: Christopher Steele’s “Primary Sub-Source” Was His Own Employee; NYT Russiagate Propaganda Shredded By Strzok Comments

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 16:30

    FBI documents declassified by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) reveal that Christopher Steele’s “primary sub-source” for his infamous Clinton/DNC-funded dossier was a ‘non-Russian employee of Christopher Steele’s firm.’

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    Per Graham’s office:

    • The document reveals that the primary “source” of Steele’s election reporting was not some well-connected current or former Russian official, but a non-Russian based contract employee of Christopher Steele’s firm. Moreover, it demonstrates that the information that Steele’s primary source provided him was second and third-hand information and rumor at best.
    • Critically, the document shows that Steele’s “Primary Sub-source” disagreed with and was surprised by how information he gave Steele was then conveyed by Steele in the Steele dossier.

    Meanwhile, a second document released by Graham absolutely shreds a New York Times article authored by Michael Schmidt, Mark Mazzetti, and Matt Apuzzo. Journalist Sharyl Attkisson details how comments made by former FBI agent Peter Strzok revealed the article, entitled “Trump Campaign Aides Had Repeated Contact With Russian Intelligence,” was absolute propaganda.

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    Via Sharylattkisson.com

    Claim in NYT article: “Phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election, according to four current and former American officials.”

    Note by Strzok: “This statement is misleading and inaccurate as written. We have not seen evidence of any individuals in contact with Russians (both Governmental and non-Governmental” and “There is no known intel affiliation, and little if any [Government of Russia] affiliation[.] FBI investigation has shown past contact between [Trump campaign volunteer Carter] Page and the SVR [Service of the Russian Federation], but not during his association with the Trump campaign.”

    Claim in NYT article: “…one of the advisers picked up on the [intercepted] calls was Paul Manafort, who was Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman for several months…”

    Note by Strzok: “We are unaware of any calls with any Russian government official in which Manafort was a party.”

    Claim in NYT article: “The FBI has obtained banking and travel records…”

    Note by Strzok: “We do not yet have detailed banking records.”

    Claim in NYT article: “Officials would not disclose many details, including what was discussed on the calls, and how many of Trump’s advisers were talking to the Russians.”

    Note by Strzok: “Again, we are unaware of ANY Trump advisers engaging in conversations with Russian intel officials” and “Our coverage has not revealed contact between Russian intelligence officers and the Trump team.”

    Claim in NYT article: “The F.B.I. asked the N.S.A. to collect as much information as possible about the Russian operatives on the phone calls…”

    Note by Strzok: “If they did we are not aware of those communications.”

    Claim in NYT article: “The FBI has closely examined at least four other people close to Mr. Trump… Carter Page… Roger Stone… and Mr. Flynn.”

    Note by Strzok: “We have not investigated Roger Stone.”

    Claim by NYT: “Senior F.B.I. officials believe… Christopher Steele… has a credible track record.”

    Note by Strzok: “Recent interviews and investigation, however, reveal Steele may not be in a position to judge the reliability of subsource network.”

    Claim by NYT: “The F.B.I.’s investigation into Mr. Manafort began last spring [2016].”

    Note by Strzok: “This is inaccurate… our investigation of Manafort was opened in August 2016.”

    Claim by NYT: “The bureau did not have enough evidence to obtain a warrant for a wiretap of Mr. Manafort’s communications, but it had the N.S.A. closely scrutinize the communications of Ukrainian officials he had met.”

    Note by Strzok: “This is inaccurate…”

    * * *

    Will the New York Times correct their inaccurate reporrting?

    * * *

    Statement and documents from Sen. Lindsey Graham’s office:

    WASHINGTON – Today, as part of the Senate Judiciary Committee’s ongoing investigation into the Crossfire Hurricane investigation and related FISA abuses, Chairman Lindsey Graham (R- South Carolina) released two recently declassified documents that significantly undercut the reliability of the Steele dossier and the accuracy and reliability of many of the factual assertions in the Carter Page FISA applications.

    “I’m very pleased the investigation in the Senate Judiciary Committee has been able to secure the declassification of these important documents,” said Chairman Graham. “I want to thank Attorney General Barr for releasing these documents and allowing the American People to judge for themselves.

    “What have we learned from the release of these two documents by the Department of Justice? Number one, it is clear to me that the memo regarding the FBI interview of the primary sub-source in January 2017 should have required the system to stop and reevaluate the case against Mr. Page.

    “Most importantly after this interview of the sub-source and the subsequent memo detailing the contents of the interview, it was a miscarriage of justice for the FBI and the Department of Justice to continue to seek a FISA warrant against Carter Page in April and June of 2017.

    “The dossier was a critical document to justify a FISA warrant against Mr. Page and this DOJ memo clearly indicates that the reliability of the dossier was completely destroyed after the interview with the primary sub-source in January 2017. Those who knew or should have known of this development and continued to pursue a FISA warrant against Mr. Page anyway are in deep legal jeopardy in my view.

    “Secondly, the comments of Peter Strzok regarding the February 14 New York Times article are devastating in that they are an admission that there was no reliable evidence that anyone from the Trump Campaign was working with Russian Intelligence Agencies in any form.

    “The statements by Mr. Strzok question the entire premise of the FBI’s investigation of the Trump Campaign and make it even more outrageous that the Mueller team continued this investigation for almost two and a half years. Moreover, the statements by Strzok raise troubling questions as to whether the FBI was impermissibly unmasking and analyzing intelligence gathered on U.S. persons.

    “These documents, which I have long sought, tell a damning story for anyone who’s interested in trying to find the truth behind the corrupt nature of the FBI’s investigation into the Trump campaign in 2016 and beyond.”

    The first document is a 57-page summary of a three-day interview the FBI conducted with Christopher Steele’s so-called “Primary Sub-source” in January of 2017. [Document 1]

    • This document not only demonstrates how unsubstantiated and unreliable the Steele dossier was, it shows that the FBI was on notice of the dossier’s credibility problems and sought two more FISA application renewals after gaining this awareness.
    • The document reveals that the primary “source” of Steele’s election reporting was not some well-connected current or former Russian official, but a non-Russian based contract employee of Christopher Steele’s firm. Moreover, it demonstrates that the information that Steele’s primary source provided him was second and third-hand information and rumor at best.
    • Critically, the document shows that Steele’s “Primary Sub-source” disagreed with and was surprised by how information he gave Steele was then conveyed by Steele in the Steele dossier. For instance, the “Primary Sub-source”: did not recall or did not know where some of the information attributed to him or his sources came from; was never told about or never mentioned to Steele certain information attributed to him or his sources; he said that Steele re-characterized some of the information to make it more substantiated and less attenuated than it really was; that he would have described his sources differently; and, that Steele implied direct access to information where the access to information was indirect. 
    • In total, this document demonstrates that information from the Steele dossier, which “played a central and essential role” in the FISA warrants on Carter Page, should never have been presented to the FISA court.     

    The second document contains Peter Strzok’s type-written comments disagreeing with assertions made in aNew York Times article about alleged Russian intelligence ties to the Trump campaign. [Document 2]

    • The document demonstrates that Peter Strzok and others in FBI leadership positions must have been aware of the issues with the Steele dossier that the FBI’s interview with Steele’s “Primary Sub-source” revealed, because Strzok commented that “[r]ecent interviews and investigation, however, reveal Steele may not be in a position to judge the reliability of his sub-source network.”
    • The document further shows that the FBI’s assertion to the FISA court that “the FBI believes that Russia’s efforts to influence U.S. policy were likely being coordinated between the RIS [Russian Intelligence Services] and Page, and possibly others” appears to be a misrepresentation. This is because, in his comments on the Times article, Strzok asserts that “[w]e have not seen evidence of any individuals affiliated with the Trump team in contact with IOs [Intelligence Officials]. . . . We are unaware of ANY Trump advisors engaging in conversations with Russian intelligence officials.”
    • The document also indicates that the FBI may have been using foreign intelligence gathering techniques to impermissibly unmask and analyze existing and future intelligence collection regarding U.S. persons associated with the Trump campaign: “Both the CIA and NSA are aware of our subjects and throughout the summer we provided them names and selectors for queries of their holdings as well as prospective collection.” The quote does not provide enough information to fully understand exactly what the FBI was doing but impermissible unmasking and analysis of existing and future incidental intelligence collection of U.S. persons would be troubling.
    • The document also raises questions as to whether the FBI was properly using intelligence techniques and databases “throughout the summer” considering that the earliest formal investigation of a U.S. person associated with the Trump campaign was not officially opened until July 31, 2016.

     

  • Iran Puts Air Defenses On 'High Alert' Following Unexplained Blasts
    Iran Puts Air Defenses On ‘High Alert’ Following Unexplained Blasts

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 16:00

    CNN is reporting late this week that US intelligence has observed that Iran has put parts of its anti-air missile defense system on “high alert” following multiple unexplained blasts and fires and sensitive military, industrial, and nuclear sites.

    The report cites “several” intelligence indications according to the unnamed intel official. It also comes at a moment of wide speculation that either Israel or the US is behind some of the recent spate of explosions. Lately Israeli officials have strongly suggested that this is indeed the case. 

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    Anti-air defense system, file image.

    “The change in alert status means Iranian surface-to-air missile batteries would be ready to fire at targets perceived to be a threat,” CNN writes.

    “The official would not say how the US picked up on these indicators, but American satellites, spy planes, and ships routinely operate in nearby international airspace and waters where they continuously monitor Iranian activity,” it continues.

    The report speculated that it’s possible the change in anti-air alert status is due to military training exercises; however, it’s more likely the Islamic Republic now sees itself as under attack.

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    Over the past month there’s been well over a half-dozen major blasts, with one at a ballistic missile site, and another at Natanz nuclear facility. 

    The CNN report points toward the new alert status as specifically a likely response to the Natanz destruction, the explanation of which is still deeply uncertain.

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Today’s News 18th July 2020

  • Escobar: Turkey & The Clash Of Civilizations
    Escobar: Turkey & The Clash Of Civilizations

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 07/18/2020 – 00:05

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    Turkish President Erdogan’s move to make Hagia Sophia a mosque is part of his masterplan to claim leadership of global Islam…

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    Late afternoon in May 29, 1453, Sultan Mehmet, the third son of Murad, born of a slave-girl – probably Christian – in the harem, fluent in Turkish, Arabic, Greek, Latin, Persian and Hebrew, followed by his top ministers, his imams and his bodyguard of Janissaries, rides slowly towards the Great Church of St Sophia in Constantinople.

    It’s unlikely that Sultan Mehmet would be sparing a thought for Emperor Justinian, the last of quite a breed: a true Roman Emperor in the throne of Byzantium, a speaker of “barbarous” Greek (he was born in Macedonia) but with a Latin mind.

    Much like Sultan Mehmet, Justinian was quite the geopolitician. Byzantium trade was geared towards Cathay and the Indies: silk, spices, precious stones. Yet Persia controlled all the caravan routes on the Ancient Silk Road. The sea route was also a problem; all cargo had to depart from the Persian Gulf.

    So Justinian had to bypass Persia.

    He came up with a two-pronged strategy: a new northern route via Crimea and the Caucasus, and a new southern route via the Red Sea, bypassing the Persian Gulf.

    The first was a relative success; the second a mess. But Justinian finally got his break when a bunch of Orthodox monks offered him to bring back from Asia some precious few silkworm eggs. Soon there were factories not only in Constantinople but in Antioch, Tyre and Beirut. The imperial silk industry – a state monopoly, of course – was up and running.

    A fantastic mosaic in Ravenna from the year 546 depicts a Justinian much younger than 64, his age at the time. He was a prodigy of energy – and embellished Constantinople non-stop. The apex was the Church of St. Sophia – the largest building in the world for centuries.

    So here we have Sultan Mehmet silently proceeding with his slow ride all the way to the central bronze doors of St Sophia.

    He dismounts and picks up a handful of dust and in a gesture of humility, sprinkles it over his turban.

    Then he enters the Great Church. He walks towards the altar.

    A barely perceptible command leads his top imam to escalate the pulpit and proclaim in the name of Allah, the All Merciful and Compassionate, there is no God but God and Muhammad is his Prophet.

    The Sultan then touches the ground with his turbaned head – in a silent prayer. St Sophia was now a mosque.

    Sultan Mehmet leaves the mosque and crosses the square to the old Palace of the Emperors, in ruins, founded by Constantine The Great 11 and ½ centuries before. He slowly wanders the ancient halls, his fine velvet slippers brushing the dust from the fabulous pebbled floor mosaics.

    Then he murmurs two verses of a Persian poet:

    “As the spider weaves the curtain over the palace of the Roman Caesars

    The owl sings the time of the house of Afrasiab”

    The Byzantine empire, founded by Constantine The Great on Monday, May 11, 330, was over on a Tuesday, May 29, 1453.

    Sultan Mehmet is now the Lord of Constantinople and the Lord of the Ottoman Empire. He’s only 21 years old.

    Back to the Magic Mountain

    Last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan re-christened Hagia Sophia from a museum back into a mosque. He may have done it because his popularity is waning; his proxy wars are a disaster; his AKP party is shattered; and the economy is bleeding badly.

    But what’s striking is that right at the beginning of his official televised speech, Erdogan quoted exactly the same verses by the Persian poet murmured by Sultan Mehmet in that fateful afternoon in 1453.

    Erdogan’s latest move – which is part of his perennial master plan to claim leadership of global Islam over the decrepit House of Saud – was widely interpreted in myriad latitudes as yet another instance of clash of civilizations: not only Orthodox Christianity vs. Islam but once again East vs. West.

    That reminded me of another East vs. West recent derivation: a revival of the Settembrini vs. Naphta debate in Thomas Mann’s The Magic Mountain, promoted by a Dutch think tank, the Nexus Institute, which aims to “keep the spirit of European humanism alive”. The debate pitted Aleksander Dugin against Bernard-Henri Levy (widely known in France as BHL). The full transcript of the debate is here.

    Dugin is a leading Eurasianist and the conceptualizer of the – largely banned in the West – Fourth Political Theory . As a philosopher and political theorist, Dugin is cartoonishly demonized across the West as “Putin’s brain”, a closet fascist and “the most dangerous philosopher in the world”.

    BHL, hailed as “one of the West’s leading intellectuals”, is a vain poseur who emerged as a “nouveau philosophe” in the mid-1970s and ritually regurgitates the usual Atlanticist mantras enveloped in flowery quotes. He managed, among other feats, to write a book about Pakistan without knowing anything whatsoever about Pakistan, as I thrashed it on Asia Times back in 2002.

    Here are a few interesting talking points throughout the debate.

    Dugin stresses the end of Western hegemony and global liberalism. He asks BHL, directly, how, “interestingly, iyour book, you define the American empire or the global liberal system as a system of nihilism, based on nothing.” Dugin does define himself as a nihilist “in the sense that I refuse the universality of modern Western values (…) I just challenge that the only way to interpret democracy is as the rule of minorities against the majority, that the only way to interpret freedom is as individual freedom, and that the only way to interpret human rights is by projecting a modern, Western, individualistic version of what it means to be human on other cultures.”

    BHL, which seems not to have read his own, dreary, book – this is something Dugin told me in person last year in Beirut, after the debate – prefers to resort to proverbial, infantile Putin bashing, picked up over and over again, stressing “there is a bad, dark wind of nihilism in its proper sense, which is a Nazi and a fascist sense, which is blowing in the great Russia.”

    Later on in the debate, BHL adds, “I really believe that there is a link between, on the one side, your and Huntington’s way of thinking; and, on the other side, the occupation of Crimea, the 30,000 deaths in Ukraine and the war in Syria with its bloodbath, tragic and horrible.”

    On racism, Dugin is adamant: he does not defend it. For him, “Racism is an Anglo-Saxon liberal construction based on a hierarchy between peoples. I think this is criminal.” Then he defines “a new Manichean division, a new racism. Those who are in favor of Western values, they are good. Everybody who challenges that, in the Islamic tradition, in the Russian tradition, in the Chinese tradition, in the Indian tradition, everywhere, they are populists, and they are classified as fascism. I think that is a new kind of racism.”

    BHL prefers to concentrate on “the civilization of human rights, freedom, individual dignity, and so on. This deserves to be universalized. This should be conceived, except if you are a racist, as profitable for the entire humanity.” And then it’s Anti-Semitism all over again: “All the men who you quoted and from whom you draw your inspiration – Spengler, Heidegger, who is also a great philosopher of course, and others – are contaminated, corrupted, infected by this plague which is antisemitism. And alas – you too.”

    In Paris circles, the joke is that the only thing BHL cares about is the promotion of BHL. And everyone who does not agree with one of the “leading Western intellectuals” is Anti-Semitic.

    BHL insists he’s interested in building bridges. But it’s Dugin who frames the real heart of the matter: “When we try to build bridges too early, without knowing the structure of the Other – the problem is the Other. The West doesn’t understand the Other as something positive. It is all the same, and we immediately try to find bridges – they are illusions, and not bridges, because we are projecting ourselves. The Other is the same, the ideology of the same. We first need to understand otherness.”

    BHL totally ignores Levi-Strauss. It’s Dugin who refers to Levi-Strauss when talking about The Other, describing him as one of his teachers:

    “This anthropological pluralism, I agree, is precisely the American and French tradition. But it is not reflected in politics, or it is reflected in a very perverted way. So I think there is a big contradiction between this anthropological thought in American universities and French universities, and a kind of very aggressive colonial neo-imperialist form to promote American interests on the world scale with weapons.”

    BHL is left with – what else – Putin demonization: “The real imperialism, the real one who is interfering and sowing disorder and interfering in the affairs of others, alas, is Putin. And I need not speak of America, where it is now proved that there has been a huge, crude, and evident Russian intervention in the electoral process of the last election.” BHL, who does not even qualify as a neophyte in geopolitics, is oblivious to the absolute debunking of Russiagate.

    BHL is adamant “there is today a real clash of civilizations. But not the one you mention in your books, between the north and the east and the west and the south and all of that; there is a clash of civilizations all over the planet between those who believe in human rights, in liberty, in the right for a body not to be tortured and martyred, and those who are happy with illiberalism and the revival of authoritarianism and slavery.”

    Dugin’s challenge for years has been to try to conceptualize what may come next, after the failure of Marxism, fascism and liberal democracy. As much as he thinks Eurasian, he’s inclusive – incorporating “Euro” with “Asia”. BHL for his part simplistically reduces every “evil” to “illiberalism”, where Russia, China, Iran and Turkey – no nuances – are thrown in the same dustbin alongside the vacuous and actually murderous House of Saud.

    Mao returns

    Now let’s attempt a light-hearted ending to our mini-triptych on the clash of civilizations. Inevitably, that has to do with the ongoing US-China Hybrid War.

    Around two years ago, the following dialogue was a smash hit on Chinese Weibo. The Great Helmsman Mao Zedong – or his ghost – was back in town, and he wanted to know about everything that was goin’ on.

    Mao: “Can the people eat their fill?”

    Answer: “There’s so much to eat they’re dieting.”

    Mao: “Are there still any capitalists?”

    Answer: “They’re all doing business overseas now!”

    Mao: “Do we produce more steel than England?”

    Answer: “Tangshan alone produces more than America.”

    Mao: “Did we beat social imperialism (as in the former USSR)?”

    Answer: “They dissolved it themselves!”

    Mao: “Did we smash imperialism?”

    Answer: “We’re the imperialists now!”

    Mao: “And what about my Cultural Revolution?”

    Answer: “It’s in America now!”

    Call it a – revisionist? – realpolitik version of the clash of civilizations.

  • US Customs Plans To Tap Into Nationwide License Plate Reading Network For Border Security 
    US Customs Plans To Tap Into Nationwide License Plate Reading Network For Border Security 

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 23:45

    US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) published a new assessment titled “Privacy Impact Assessment for the CBP License Plate Reader Technology,” outlining the agency’s plan to combine its database on license plate images with ones from local and state governments, law enforcement agencies, parking garages, toll booth cameras, and financial institutions. 

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    The US has a massive network of automatic license plate readers (ALPR), typically found on police cars and toll booths used to collect license plates of vehicles passing by. We noted one database, in particular, called the Rekor Public Safety Network (RPSN), gives law enforcement real-time access to license plates, captures approximately 150 million plate reads per month. To better protect the nation, the CBP’s new assessment indicates it now wants direct access to these databases. 

    “To meet its vast mission requirements, CBP relies on a variety of law enforcement tools and techniques for law enforcement and border security,” the assessment said. “One such tool is license plate reader (LPR) technology, which consists of high-speed cameras and related equipment mounted on vehicles or in fixed locations that automatically and without direct human control locate, focus on, and photograph license plates and vehicles that come into range of the device.”

    CBP said most Americans “might not be aware” that ALPRs are deployed at border crossings to collect license plate information. The agency said people should avoid areas where ALPRs are deployed if they don’t want to be surveilled. 

    The system will allow CBP agents to quickly enter a license plate number of a vehicle in the database and search for “any responsive records” (or hits) on any license plate readers that detected the vehicle within the last 30 days. 

    The assessment said the overall goal of the new database, by aggregating third-party data with its own, will allow agents to “identify individuals, or vehicles, involved in criminal activity which may need additional scrutiny when attempting to cross the border or to identify and locate suspects involved in terrorist activities.”

    The federal government’s obsession with monitoring everyone and everything is becoming the norm in a post-corona world.

  • Narcissists, Psychopaths, & Manipulators Are More Likely To Engage In "Virtuous Victim Signaling", Study Finds
    Narcissists, Psychopaths, & Manipulators Are More Likely To Engage In “Virtuous Victim Signaling”, Study Finds

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 23:25

    Authored by Elizabeth Nolan Brown via Reason.com,

    New study links virtue signaling to “Dark Triad” traits. Being accused of “virtue signaling” might sound nice to the uninitiated, but spend much time on social media and you know that it’s actually an accusation of insincerity. Virtue signalers are, essentially, phonies and showoffs – folks who adopt opinions and postures solely to garner praise and sympathy or whose good deeds are tainted by their need for everyone to see just how good they are. Combined with a culture that says only victimhood confers a right to comment on certain issues, it’s a big factor in online pile-ons and one that certainly contributes to social media platforms being such a bummer sometimes.

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    So: Here’s some fun new research looking at “the consequences and predictors of emitting signals of victimhood and virtue,” published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. The paper—from University of British Columbia researchers Ekin Ok, Yi Qian, Brendan Strejcek, and Karl Aquino—details multiple studies the authors conducted on the subject.

    Their conclusion? Psychopathic, manipulative, and narcissistic people are more frequent signalers of “virtuous victimhood.”

    The so-called “dark triad” personality traits – Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy – lead to characteristics like “self-promotion, emotional callousness, duplicity, and tendency to take advantage of others,” the paper explains.

    And “treated as a composite, the Dark Triad traits were significant predictors of virtuous victim signaling.”

    This held true “even when controlling for factors that may make people vulnerable to being mistreated or disadvantaged in society (i.e., demographic and socioeconomic characteristics) as well as the importance they place on being a virtuous individual as part of their self-concept,” the researchers note.

    They point out that virtue signaling is defined as “the conspicuous expression of moral values, done primarily with the intent of enhancing one’s standing within a social group.”

    Meanwhile, victim signaling “may be used as a social influence tactic that can motivate recipients of the signal to voluntarily transfer resources to the signaler,” they explain. More from the paper’s theoretical background section:

    An emerging literature on competitive victimhood documents the prevalence of victim signaling by various social groups and provides evidence for its functionality as a resource extraction strategy. For instance, victim signaling justifies victim groups seeking retribution against alleged oppressors. Retribution often takes the form of demanding compensation through some kind of resource transfer from nonvictims to the alleged victim. Claiming victim status can also facilitate resource transfer by conferring moral immunity upon the claimant. Moral immunity shields the alleged victim from criticism about the means they might use to satisfy their demands. In other words, victim status can morally justify the use of deceit, intimidation, or even violence by alleged victims to achieve their goals. Relatedly, claiming victim status can lead observers to hold a person less blameworthy, excusing transgressions, such as the appropriation of private property or the infliction of pain upon others, that might otherwise bring condemnation or rebuke. Finally, claiming victim status elevates the claimant’s psychological standing, defined as a subjective sense of legitimacy or entitlement to speak up. A person who has the psychological standing can reject or ignore any objections by nonvictims to the unreasonableness of their demands. In contrast to victim signalers, people who do not publicly disclose their misfortune or disadvantage are less likely to reap the benefits of retributive compensation, moral immunity, deflection of blame, or psychological standing and would therefore find it difficult to initiate resource transfers.

    The effectiveness of victim signaling as a resource transfer strategy follows the basic principles of signaling theory. Signaling theory posits that the transmission of information from one individual (the sender) to another (the receiver) can influence the behavior of the receiver. Signals can refer to any physical or behavioral trait of the sender, and are used by the senders to alter the behaviors of others to their own advantage.

    Their results suggest that:

    • “a perceived victim signal can lead others to transfer resources to a victim, but that the motivation to do so is amplified when the victim signal is paired with a virtue signal” and “people high in the Dark Triad traits emit the dual signal more frequently.”

    • “a positive correlation between the Dark Triad scores and the frequency of emitting the virtuous victim signal.”

    • “evidence of how these signals … can predict a person’s willingness to engage in and endorse ethically questionable behaviors …. frequent virtuous victim signalers are more willing to purchase counterfeit products and judge counterfeiters as less immoral compared with less frequent signalers, a pattern that was also observed when using participants’ Dark Triad scores instead of their signaling score,” and “frequent virtuous victim signalers were more likely to cheat and lie to earn extra monetary reward in [a] coin flip game.”

    • “that a dimension referred to as amoral manipulation was the most reliable predictor of virtuous victim signaling.”

    • “frequent virtuous victim signalers were more likely to make inflated claims to justify receiving restitution for an alleged and ambiguous norm violation in an organizational context.”

    The authors stress that they “do not refute the claim that there are individuals who emit the virtuous victim signal because they experience legitimate harm and also conduct themselves in decent and laudable ways.”

  • Pentagon Reveals Trump's "Super-Duper" Hypersonic Missile 
    Pentagon Reveals Trump’s “Super-Duper” Hypersonic Missile 

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 23:05

    Rising Sino-US tensions aren’t going away, not tomorrow, not next month or next year. There’s a geopolitical rivalry at play, or as we’ve explained before: Thucydides Trap

    China’s rapid military expansion in the Pacific has been a wake-up call to Washington. Beijing has also spent the last decade modernizing its military with the latest war technology, including fifth-generation fighters and hypersonic weapons

    President Trump, the Pentagon, and the military-industrial complex recognize a conflict is ahead; otherwise, why would the president plow $2 trillion into modernizing the military over the last couple of years?

    When it comes to hypersonic technology, the US is behind the curve in the deployment of these super-fast weapons onto the modern battlefield. On the other hand, China and Russia have already claimed they’ve fielded these missiles that can travel multiples of the speed of sound. 

    President Trump boasted Ameria’s hypersonic capabilities in May, saying a “super-duper” missile in development can travel 17-times faster, though the Pentagon at the time was unwilling to confirm. 

    “We are building, right now, incredible military equipment at a level that nobody has ever seen before. We have no choice. We have to do it — with the adversaries, we have out there. We have a — I call it the ‘super-duper missile.’ And I heard the other night, 17 times faster than what they have right now,” Trump said in May. 

    Now there’s more color on the hypersonic missile the president was touting. A senior defense official told CNN this week, President Trump has taken “special interest” in hypersonics revealing that the new missile can travel “17 times faster” than the speed of sound.

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    h/t CNN 

    The defense official is referring to a “hypersonic glide body” test over the Pacific in March. 

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    “What he was referring to, really, was the recent flight test that we’ve performed in March where we flew 17 times the speed of sound,” the senior defense official said.

    CNN noted the US won’t have hypersonic missiles fielded until 2023 while China and Russia already have there’s in the field. 

    As China challenges America’s predominance, a new Cold War is already underway. The rise of China and the stumbling of the US is one that could suggest tensions between both countries will continue until there’s a conflict. 

  • Testing Will Begin In Africa For Biometric ID, "Vaccine Records", & "Payment Systems"
    Testing Will Begin In Africa For Biometric ID, “Vaccine Records”, & “Payment Systems”

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 22:45

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    Testing will soon begin in poverty-stricken parts of Africa for a biometric ID which will also be your payment system and vaccine record. The biometric digital identity platform that “evolves just as you evolve” is backed by none other than the Bill Gates-backed GAVI vaccine alliance, Mastercard, and the AI-powered “identity authentication” company, Trust Stamp.

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    The GAVI Alliance, which is largely funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates and Rockefeller Foundations, as well as allied governments and the vaccine industry, is principally concerned with improving “the health of markets for vaccines and other immunization products,” rather than the health of individuals, according to its own website. Similarly, Mastercard’s GAVI partnership is directly linked to its “World Beyond Cash” effort, which mainly bolsters its business model that has long depended on a reduction in the use of physical cash.

    Reducing the use of cash is needed. Cash is impossible to track, but if you use centralized digital currency, the ruling class has complete control over what you can spend.

    The program, which was first launched in late 2018, will see Trust Stamp’s digital identity platform integrated into the GAVI-Mastercard “Wellness Pass,” a digital vaccination record and identity system that is also linked to Mastercard’s click-to-play system that powered by its AI and machine learning technology called NuDataMastercard, in addition to professing its commitment to promoting “centralized record keeping of childhood immunization” also describes itself as a leader toward a “World Beyond Cash,” and its partnership with GAVI marks a novel approach towards linking a biometric digital identity system, vaccination records, and a payment system into a single cohesive platform. The effort, since its launch nearly two years ago, has been funded via $3.8 million in GAVI donor funds in addition to a matched donation of the same amount by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. –Activist Post

    In early June, GAVI reported that Mastercard’s Wellness Pass program would be adapted in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Around a month later, Mastercard announced that Trust Stamp’s biometric identity platform would be integrated into Wellness Pass as Trust Stamp’s system is capable of providing biometric identity in areas of the world lacking internet access or cellular connectivity and also does not require knowledge of an individual’s legal name or identity to function. The Wellness Program involving GAVI, Mastercard, and Trust Stamp will soon be launched in West Africa and will be coupled with a COVID-19 vaccination program once a vaccine becomes available.

    What is perhaps most alarming about this new “Wellness Pass” initiative, is that it links these “dual use” digital solutions to cashless payment solutions that could soon become mandated as anything over than touchless, cashless, methods of payment have been treated as potential modes for contagion by GAVI-aligned groups like the World Health Organization, among others, since the pandemic was first declared earlier this year. –Activist Post

    Do you get it yet? It’s all tied into the same thing, and the plandemic is an excuse to roll this out. Wake up. They are not coming to save you, quite the opposite, actually.

    For those stuck on the line of thinking that President Donald Trump said this “vaccine will be voluntary,” you are probably correct. It’ll be “voluntary” all right. And if you don’t get it and participate in the new biometric ID program, you won’t be able to buy or sell anything, including food. That sounds nothing like the definition of voluntary to me, but believe in whatever religion you wish and put your trust in whomever you want. I’ll rely on myself instead of some politician to save me.

    Oh, just what does Trump need 300 million doses of the vaccine for if it’s going to be “voluntary?” We are in for a “dark winter” as they have already told us several times. It’s time to apply critical thinking and stop falling for all of these psyops.

    Those Who Planned The Enslavement of Mankind Warn Of “A Dark Winter” For Us

    This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t remain vigilant and know what’s going on. Get your preps in order. Do another audit, buy some more food, and improve your water storage.  This system is here and it will not be voluntary in any sense of the word.  It’s similar to our “voluntary tax” system. Go ahead and choose to not pay, and men with guns will come to your house to make you pay. Yep, that’s how voluntary interaction works (note: that was sarcasm). Believe any politician you want, but they are all puppets for the Federal Reserve, and their takeover is imminent unless we wake up and stand together.

    The entire breakdown of this new beast system can be read by clicking here.

    Don’t just trust my word. Look into these issues for yourself. Everything is linked above, and better yet, find your own information. I would implore all of you to not just believe what you are being told by anyone, including Trump or myself. Research, read, learn, and prepare.

  • Record Number Of Americans Died From Drug Overdoses In 2019 As Fentanyl Moved West
    Record Number Of Americans Died From Drug Overdoses In 2019 As Fentanyl Moved West

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 22:25

    Activists and the White House who were hoping that the decline in drug overdose deaths seen in 2018 – the first such decline in nearly three decades – might have continued into 2019 are about to be disappointed.

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    Yesterday, the CDC released its preliminary data on drug overdose deaths (the final report won’t land until December), and the organization found that the total for 2019 was 5% higher than the total from 2018. The data also topped the 2017 total, the last record number for annual overdose deaths, by just a few hundred deaths to mark a new annual record for drug-related deaths in the US.

    Nearly 71,000 Americans died from drug overdoses last year, per the CDC data. 70,980 died last year, per the preliminary data. That’s compared with 70,699 from 2017, the last record high, the CDC reports.

    Soaring overdose deaths in the US have helped drag down average life expectancy for 3 straight years, and by the looks of it, No. 4 might be right around the corner.

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    Opioids led the pack once again, thanks largely to the deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl. So far this year, deaths are on track to surpass their totals from last year.

    Drug deaths have risen an average of 13 percent so far this year over last year, according to mortality data from local and state governments collected by The New York Times, covering 40 percent of the U.S. population. If this trend continues for the rest of the year, it will be the sharpest increase in annual drug deaths since 2016, when a class of synthetic opioids known as fentanyls first made significant inroads in the country’s illicit drug supply.

    One of the most important trends, per the NYT, is the fact that deadly fentanyl is moving west.

    Fentanyl had been confined mostly to New England and other parts of the East, where it was generally found as an adulterant in powdered heroin. But in recent years, fentanyl and other potent synthetic opioids have been blamed for an increasing number of overdose deaths in California, Arizona and other Western states.

    Ironically, the New York Times reported that the number of drug-related deaths has probably continued to climb in 2020 as the pandemic cuts off access to needle-exchange vans and other resources that hand out fresh needles and the overdose-reversal medication naloxone.

    With the pandemic disrupting treatment centers, syringe exchanges and other places that help people with drug addiction, there may also be less naloxone — the overdose-reversing medication that has brought back thousands from the brink of death — on the streets. And there is at least anecdotal evidence that with the nation’s borders closed because of the pandemic, the illicit drug supply has been disrupted and has become less predictable. Constant changes in potency make it harder for people to judge the strength of the drugs they’re using.

    “The inconsistency of our drug supply right now is at an all-time high,” said Chad Sabora, the co-founder and executive director of the Missouri Network for Opiate Reform and Recovery.

    Here’s how the number of drug deaths changed across the country. While the northeast (with the notable exception of hard-hit Connecticut) has seen drug deaths ebb, the midwest and the mountain west are still in trouble.

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    The biggest percentage increase across the US was found in South Dakota, with a more than 50% increase (though, keep in mind, it’s South Dakota, so percentage change isn’t as meaningful as the overall number of new cases.

  • The Lost Boys? The White Working Class Is Being Left Behind
    The Lost Boys? The White Working Class Is Being Left Behind

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 22:05

    Authored by Christopher Snowdon via Spectator USA,

    You can argue about the merits of pulling down statues, but it’s hard to make the case that mass protests serve no useful purpose. At the very least, they provoke debate and draw attention to uncomfortable topics that it might otherwise be easier to ignore. The recent protests have forced everyone to have difficult discussions about race, class, poverty and attainment. Any serious examination of the statistics shows that we’re pretty far from equal, but what the figures also show is that it’s wrong-headed and damaging to lump very different groups together.

    In these discussions politicians often lazily assume that all BAME (Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic) people are the same, and that all white groups are equally privileged. But a proper look at the data shows not just that there are striking difference within BAME groups, but that the very worst-performing group of all are white working-class boys — the forgotten demographic.

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    It might seem divisive to compare different groups, but attainment in education and in life is relative and if we’re to help the worst off, we have to know who they are. We should help everyone who needs it — but it is vital to be able to compare groups to know who’s falling behind, relative to their peers. In the UK, Bangladeshi-Brits earn 20 percent less than whites on average, for instance, but those with Indian heritage are likely to earn 12 percent more. Black Britons on average earn 9 percent less, but Chinese earn 30 percent more. What these differences tell us is that employers aren’t systematically discriminating between people on the basis of their skin color, and that we have to look elsewhere to see the roots of inequality.

    Ucas, the British university admissions service, can provide unique insight into these issues: it is the only outfit in the world to gather detailed information on all university applicants, including their age, gender, neighborhood and school type. This is collected along with data on who applied for which courses and who was accepted, and it is renewed in huge detail every year.

    Much of the data shows predictable results: there is a gap between rich and poor, as you might expect in a UK state system where the best schools tend to be located in the most expensive areas. But there are surprising discoveries too: nearly half the children eligible for free school meals in inner London go on to higher education, but in the country outside London as a whole it is just 26 percent.

    Black African British children outperform white children, whereas black Caribbean children tend to do worse. Poor Chinese girls (that is to say, those who qualify for free school meals) do better than rich white children. But, interestingly, the ethnic group least likely to get into university are whites. With the sole exception of Gypsy/Roma, every ethnic group attends university at a higher rate than the white British and, of the white British who do attend, most are middle class and 57 percent are female.  The least likely group to go on to higher education are poor white boys. Just 13 percent of them go on to higher education, less than any black or Asian group.

    This is a trend that can also be seen in the GCSE data; only 17 percent of white British pupils eligible for free school meals achieve a strong pass in English and maths. Students categorized as Bangladeshi, Black African and Indian are more than twice as likely to do so. In 2007, the state sector saw 23 percent of black students go on to higher education; this was true for 22 percent of whites. So about the same. But at the last count, in 2018, the gap had widened to 11 points (41 percent for black students, 30 percent for whites). The children of the white working class are falling away from their peers, in danger of becoming lost.

    Going to university is not the golden ticket it once was, but it requires stupefying naivety to believe that seven out of eight poor white boys take a sober look at the economics of higher education and choose to set up their own businesses instead. The trail of hard evidence runs cold once they leave school, but the prospects for those who can barely read and write are dreadful and we can get some idea of the consequences by looking at the ‘left behind’ areas where unemployment, crime and ‘deaths of despair’ are significantly higher than the national average.

    Angus Deaton, a Nobel Laureate based at Princeton University, came up with the phrase ‘deaths of despair’ when he looked at the demographics of those suffering from alcoholism, depression and drug abuse. Suicides among whites, he found, was soaring and those who took their own lives tended to be poor and low-educated. His recently-published book on the subject (Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism, co-written with Anne Case) tells the devastating story of what he calls ‘the decline of white working-class lives over the last half-century’.

    Yet while white working-class males are the largest disadvantaged minority, their cause is the least fashionable. In the intersectional pyramid of victimhood, white males are at the bottom, tarnished by ideas of ‘toxic masculinity’ and ‘white privilege’ despite the fact that in Britain class has always been the most significant indicator of true privilege. It’s worrying, then, that any who attempt ‘positive action’ on behalf of poor white boys face a hostile reaction. Last year, Dulwich and Winchester colleges turned down a bequest of more than £1 million ($1.25 million) because the donor, Sir Bryan Thwaites, wanted the money ring-fenced for scholarships for white working-class boys. Peter Lampl, founder of the Sutton Trust, a charity whose stated mission is to improve social mobility, described Thwaites’s offer as ‘obnoxious’.

    When Ben Bradley, the Conservative MP for Mansfield, tried to ask an ‘Equalities’ question about working-class white boys in parliament earlier this year, he was turned down by the Table Office because they do not have any ‘protected characteristics’. The concept of ‘protected characteristics’ was wheeled into UK law by Harriet Harman’s Equality Act, 10 years ago, and the Tories, then in opposition, took the rare step of voting for it. The nine protected characteristics include ‘race’, ‘sex’ and ‘sexual orientation’, but the Table Office is not alone in interpreting these as ‘non-white’, ‘female’ and ‘gay’.

    Under the Equality Act, ‘positive discrimination’ remains technically unlawful, but the barely indistinguishable concept of ‘positive action’ is explicitly legal. Firms cannot have quotas, but they can set targets. Employers cannot refuse to look at job applications from people who lack protected characteristics, but by stating that ‘applications are particularly welcome’ from BAME, female or LBGTQ+ candidates they send a message that some need not apply.

    In 2016 the BBC pledged that half its workforce and leadership would be female by 2020 despite less than 40 percent of Britain’s full-time workers being women. It also set an 8 percent target for LGBT employees, although only around 2 percent of the population identify as LGBT. This target has been comfortably exceeded, as has been the target of having 15 percent of employees from a BAME background. In the wake of the Black Lives Matter protests last month, the corporation raised this target to 20 per cent.

    The BBC admits that people from ‘low and intermediate income households’ are hugely underrepresented in its workforce. But what does it do about it? Earlier this month Oxford University proudly reported that it was making ‘steady progress’ in its efforts to make its campuses ‘representative of wider society’. Of its most recent intake of British students, only 14 percent came from the poorest 40 percent of households.

    This fits a pattern: at a push, we can hear acknowledgement of the ‘poor white male’ problem. But that’s as far as it ever goes. The underperformance of white boys and men is not considered to be a problem worth solving. When figures come out showing the stunning attainment gaps between boys and girls, the interest lasts for about a day. ‘It always got a few headlines,’ says Mary Curnock Cook, the former head of Ucas. ‘Where it never got any traction at all was in policy-making in government. I began to think that the subject of white boys is just too difficult for them, given the politicization of feminism and women’s equality.’

    When I asked a teacher why white working-class boys have fallen so far behind, he gave me a short answer: girls are better behaved and immigrant parents are stricter. This is a generalization but nonetheless interesting: if it is the case that parenting is the problem, then it’s not clear how much the UK government can do. Perhaps the reluctance to discuss the subject stems from fear that such a discussion would lead to difficult territory about family structure, quality of parenting and — in short — culture. Perhaps politicians think it better to let the problem fester, and the children suffer, than to risk discussing it.

    Last month, the British government announced that its commission on racial inequality would include an examination into the underperformance of working-class white boys at schools. Will it look deep into the causes? It might look at recent studies that suggest poor reading levels in schools is a huge part of the problem. And it might ask whether ‘positive action’ in the name of diversity has left white working-class boys behind.

  • New US Diet Guidelines Will Limit Men To One Alcoholic Drink Per Day
    New US Diet Guidelines Will Limit Men To One Alcoholic Drink Per Day

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 21:45

    The US government already controls almost every aspect of your daily life. Soon, it will “instruct” you to drink less as well.

    With most Americans suffering from one or more chronic diet-related health conditions, including obesity, heart disease, and certain cancers, an advisory panel told government agencies that it will endorse limiting alcoholic drink to one a day when alcohol is consumed. That’s the new advice experts are recommending for the U.S. Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which are scheduled to be updated later this year for the first time in five years. The guidelines now say men should limit themselves to two drinks a day, and that women should limit themselves to one. That advice has been in place since 1990.

    The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee proposed federal departments should also recommend reducing consumption of added sugars from 10% of caloric intake to less than 6%, and that children younger than 2 shouldn’t drink sugar-sweetened beverages.

    In the report released Wednesday, a committee of experts noted there isn’t adequate evidence to support different alcohol recommendations for men and women, and that research supports tightening the limit for men. U.S. health agencies that issue dietary guidelines aren’t required to adopt the committee’s recommendations.

    “As a nation, our collective health would be better if people generally drank less,” said Dr. Timothy Naimi, an alcohol researcher at Boston University and one of the experts on the committee convened by federal officials.

    The proposed advice shouldn’t be interpreted to mean that not having a drink on Thursday means you can have two on Friday, Naimi said. One drink is the equivalent of about one 12-ounce can of beer, a 5-ounce glass of wine or a shot of liquor.

    The advice is based on links that researchers observed between drinking habits and all causes of death, including heart disease, cancer and car accidents, rather than a specific physical harm that alcohol might have. While such observational studies, common in food and nutrition science, do not establish a cause-and-effect relationship, they are often the best evidence available, so experts use them to give guidance.

    With alcohol, Naimi said two drinks a day was associated with an increased risk of death compared with one drink a day. While the increase was modest, he said that it was notable enough for the committee to recommend updating the advice.

    Whether the proposed new advice would influence behavior isn’t clear. Many Americans already exceed the current advice on alcohol limits, Naimi noted. Still, he said most people could generally benefit from any reduction in alcohol, even if they’re not within the advised limits.

    The report noted that the guidelines may be aspirational, but are important for “stimulating thought around behavior change.”

    The guidelines are based on the overall health of a population, and an individual’s risk from drinking could vary depending on a variety of factors and health habits, said Dr. Dariush Mozaffarian, a professor of nutrition at Tufts University.

    Mozaffarian also noted that many people misinterpret the current advice to mean they should have one or two drinks a day. The limits are meant for people who already drink. Hilarious, he felt the need to explain that the guidelines do not recommend that people who do not drink alcohol to start doing so.

    Even if most Americans aren’t familiar with the details of the U.S. Dietary Guidelines, they’re subject of intense lobbying because of their power to shape the advice dispensed by doctors and what’s served in federal food programs, including school lunches, as federal food assistance programs, military rations, and doctors’ dietary recommendations reflect the guidelines.

    Federal officials are expected to issue the updated guidelines by the end of the year, after considering public comments and input from other agencies. We expect they will be substantially “watered down” by the time of the final draft.

  • COVID-19: Phase 1 Of The "Permanent Crisis"?
    COVID-19: Phase 1 Of The “Permanent Crisis”?

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 21:25

    Authored by Mike Whitney via GlobalResearch.ca,

    Let’s assume that the events of the last five months are neither random nor unexpected.

    Let’s say they’re part of an ingenious plan to transform American democracy into a lockdown police state controlled by criminal elites and their puppet governors.

    And let’s say the media’s role is to fan the flames of mass hysteria by sensationalizing every gory detail, every ominous prediction and every slightest uptick in the death toll in order to exert greater control over the population.

    And let’s say the media used their power to craft a message of terror they’d repeat over and over again until finally, there was just one frightening storyline ringing-out from every soapbox and bullhorn, one group of governors from the same political party implementing the same destructive policies, and one small group of infectious disease experts –all incestuously related– issuing edicts in the form of “professional advice.”

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    Could such a thing happen in America?

    What’s most astonishing about the Covid-19 operation is the manner in which the elected government was circumvented by public health experts (connected to a power-mad billionaire activist.) That was a stroke of genius. Most people regard the US as a fairly stable democracy and yet, the first sign of infection triggered the rapid transfer of power from the president to unelected “professionals” whose conflicts of interest are too vast to list.

    Equally fascinating is the fact that the lockdowns were not the brainchild of Donald Trump but the mainly Democrat governors who shrugged-off any Constitutional limits to their power and arbitrarily ordered people to stay in their homes, wear masks and avoid close physical contact with other humans.

    All of this was done in the name of “science” and condoned under “emergency powers” despite the fact that mass quarantines of healthy people have no historical precedent or scientific basis. No matter, this was never about science or logic anyway, and it certainly wasn’t about saving lives. It was always about power, pure, unalloyed political power. The power to push the economy into freefall destroying millions of jobs and businesses. The power to bail out Wall Street while diverting attention to a fairly-mild infection that kills roughly 1 in every 500 people. The power to create a permanent underclass willing to work for table scraps or less. And the power to fundamentally restructure human relations so that normal intimacies like handshakes, hugs or social gatherings are entirely banned. This, of course, was the most ambitious part of the project, the basic changes to human interaction that date back thousands of years, and which are now seen as an obstacle to a new order in which the individual must be isolated, desensitized and kept in a constant state of fear to be more easily controlled and manipulated.

    On top of that, all of this is taking place in plain sight where anyone with even minimal critical thinking skills should be able to see what is happening, but very few do. Why is that?

    Fear. Fear has gripped the population and is preventing typically intelligent, perceptive people from seeing something that’s right beneath their noses. Check out this clip from an article titled “When Will the Madness End?”:

    “What’s happening now is a spread of this serious medical condition to the whole population… The public is adopting a personality disorder … paranoid delusions, and irrational fear…

    It can happen with anything but here we see a primal fear of disease turning into mass panic…

    … Once fear reaches a certain threshold, normalcy, rationality, morality, and decency fade and are replaced by shocking stupidity and cruelty.…..We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.

    This is made far worse by politics, which has only fed the beast of fear. This is the most politicized disease in history, and doing so has done nothing to help manage it and much to make it all vastly worse.” (“When Will the Madness End?“, AIER)

    We’re not saying that Covid doesn’t kill people, and we’re not suggesting that Covid is a bioweapon released on the public for nefarious purposes. (although that’s certainly a possibility.) What we’re saying is that scheming elites and their allies in the media and politics see every crisis as an opportunity to advance their own authoritarian agenda.

    In fact, the restructuring of basic democratic institutions can only take place within the confines of a major crisis. That’s why the CIA, the giant corporations, the WHO and the Gates Posse gathered for meetings that anticipated an event just like the Covid outbreak. They needed a crisis of that magnitude to achieve their ultimate objective; total control. That’s what they mean when they say there will be “no return to normal”, they mean they’re replacing representative government with a new totalitarian model in which the levers of state power will be controlled by them. So while the virus outbreak might be coincidental, the management of the crisis certainly is not. This is from an article by Gary Barnett:

    “We are in the midst of an attempt by the oligarchs to eliminate the human spirit, and if this attempt is successful, the singular majesty of the human experience will have been abolished, and only a technocratic black hole of emptiness and despair will remain. This is the essence of a failed society brought about by the destruction of human intellect by state education, mass propaganda, and the planned control of individuals through physical and psychological manipulation due to fear.”(“Pandemic Madness: The State’s Plan Rests on the Destruction of the Human Spirit“, Gary Barnett, Lew Rockwell)

    Is the author exaggerating?

    I don’t think so. Our species has withstood myriad epidemics in the past without ever resorting to the extremist measures we have taken during this latest outbreak. Take the state of Oregon, for example, whose Democratic governor Kate Brown just signed another executive order extending a state of emergency through Sept. 4. The move comes months after the peak in deaths was reached in mid-April. As of Tuesday, Oregon’s death toll is a meager 240 nearly 90% of who are over 65 with underlying health conditions. That means that Brown shut down a $226 billion per year economy, put tens of thousands of people out of work, destroyed countless small and medium-sized businesses and plunged the state deep into debt, to save roughly 24 or 25 people under 65 with no underlying health conditions. That’s not the reaction of an intelligent, responsible political leader acting in the best interests of the people. That is the reaction of someone who is either criminally insane or doing someone else’s bidding. So which is it?

    Like many of the other mainly Democrat governors, Brown also issued a “mask” mandate, punishable by a fine. The new executive order was neither approved by the House or by any other democratic body. It’s just Brown testing the limits of her new emergency powers. Interestingly, the mask mandate comes a full three months after the state reached its peak in fatalities which means that it has less to do with controlling the infection than it does with using the virus to usurp tyrannical powers. Does that mean Brown or the other Democrat governors are closet tyrants?

    Probably not. But it does suggest that the people who fund Brown’s campaigns and pull her strings want to see how far they can push things before the public fights back. Here’s a comment by Carlo Caduff in the Medical Anthropology Quarterly that helps to put these developments into perspective:

    “Across the world, the pandemic unleashed authoritarian longings in democratic societies allowing governments to seize the opportunity, create states of exception and push political agendas. Commentators have presented the pandemic as a chance for the West to learn authoritarianism from the East. This pandemic risks teaching people to love power and call for its meticulous application.” (“What Went Wrong: Corona and the World After the Full Stop“ Academia.edu)

    Once again, we are not denying that Covid kills people. All we’re saying is that powerful elites are using crisis management to advance their own narrow political agenda.

    It should be no surprise that states governed by Democrats are doing considerably worse than those run by Republicans. Watching the eagerness with which the Dems impose their economy-crushing measures, one can only wonder how the states will ever dig out of the current mess and regain solvency. Of course, maybe that’s the goal, to generate so much red ink that essential social services will have to be slashed, the poor will be left to starve, and the big money guys will buy-up public assets for pennies on the dollar. Indeed, that must be the plan, “shock therapy for the proles while the Democrat governors act as a battering ram to open the state to the plunder and looting of their Wall Street crony friends and others in the parasite class. Here’s how Israel Shamir summed it up in a recent article at the Unz Review:

    “There are people who think we have it too good. They think we did nothing to deserve our high civilization. They think we shouldn’t be able to afford food, the roof above our heads and other goodies. This is the view of some very wealthy people. They are annoyed at seeing Tom, Dick and Harry going to Acapulco and eating in a restaurant, instead of being at their beck and call. They want to lower our income and raise the cost of living. They are willing to fund anyone who calls for more austerity.

    Now they support lockdowns, claiming that it is the best way to fight disease. Yesterday they were calling on us to shut down industry in order to save the climate. Today these same people are still trying to reduce us to poverty, this time for the sake of Covid” (“Unmasking Freedom, The Unz review)

    Shamir is right of course, the justifications are forever changing while the ultimate goal remains the same, wreak havoc the economy, divide the people into warring camps, and clear the way for the new streamlined system of authoritarian government, the glorious NWO. And the speed at which we are moving towards this new order is truly breathtaking. Take a look at this sampling of articles I’ve compiled which illustrates the catastrophic damage that is being done to the economy but swept under the rug by the media. In short, Covid is the diversion that keeps the American people from realizing that the system that keeps them employed, pays the mortgage and puts food on the table is being decimated by voracious oligarchs who want to start fresh. Check out these articles:

    Anyway, you get the picture, the situation is dire. But as severe as the economic carnage may be, the psychic damage is that much worse. Many readers probably already know that suicides, divorces, child abuse, alcoholism, drug abuse and domestic violence have all risen sharply in the last 5 months. The impact of the lockdowns on people suffering from chronic depression or other mental health conditions has also increased dramatically. As Doctor Waqar Rashid opines in an article at The Spectator:

    “Many people are… still terrified.,… afraid of venturing back into the outside world…. Masks are everywhere, and are compulsory on public transport. The result is a reminder that this ‘new normal’ is utterly unlike what we are used to. Even to those who don’t suffer from mental health problems it’s a depressing and dispiriting sight. And I fear this ongoing state of stress and anxiety is doing profound damage to people’s psychological wellbeing...

    It was widely acknowledged before the pandemic struck that mental health problems were not only increasing in number but also being seen more frequently in younger people. As a neurologist, the people I see are especially at risk from suffering from mental health problems. It’s a sad fact that in my line of work, we can cure very little. But we can try to control and mitigate the illnesses we seek to treat. Much of this relies on the patient remaining hopeful and optimistic about their prospects. But now, surrounded as we are by this ‘invisible enemy’, all too often hope has been substituted for fear, even terror.” (“What’s the true cost of lockdown?”The Spectator)

    Covid-19; Phase 1 of the “Permanent Crisis”

    It all boils down to this: Ruling class elites are using a public health crisis to wage a full-scale war on the American people and their system of representative government. The Democrat-CIA-Media Axis has been instrumental in prosecuting the conflict, as they were in the Russiagate fiasco. These are the shock troops who execute the battleplan of economic strangulation, covert skulduggery, and relentless disinformation. By the time the American people figure out what’s going on, the political landscape will have changed completely.

  • Judicial Watch Uncovers Explosive FBI Emails Appearing To Reference A White House 'Confidential Informant'
    Judicial Watch Uncovers Explosive FBI Emails Appearing To Reference A White House ‘Confidential Informant’

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 21:11

    Authored by Sara Carter via SaraACarter.com,

    A top government watchdog group obtained 136 pages of never before publicized emails between former FBI lovers Peter Strzok and Lisa Page and one in particular appears to refer to a confidential informant inside the White House in 2017, according to a press release from Judicial Watch.

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    Those emails, some of which are heavily redacted, reveal that “Strzok, Page and top bureau officials in the days prior to and following President Donald Trump’s inauguration discussing a White House counterintelligence briefing that could “play into” the FBI’s “investigative strategy.”

    Moreover, another email sent by Strzok to Bill Priestap, the Former Assistant Director for the Counterintelligence Division, refers to what appears to be a confidential informant in the White House. The email was sent the day after Trump’s inauguration.

    “I heard from [redacted] about the WH CI briefing routed from [redacted],” wrote Strzok. “I am angry that Jen did not at least cc: me, as my branch has pending investigative matters there, this brief may play into our investigative strategy, and I would like the ability to have visibility and provide thoughts/counsel to you in advance of the briefing. This is one of the reasons why I raised the issue of lanes/responsibilities that I did when you asked her to handle WH detailee interaction.” 

    In April, 2019 this reporter first published information that there was an alleged confidential informant for the FBI in the White House. In fact, then senior Republican Chairmen of the Senate Appropriations Committee Charles Grassley and Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Ron Johnson submitted a letter to Department of Justice Attorney General William Barr revealing the new texts from Strzok to Page showing the pair had discussed attempts to recruit sources within the White House to allegedly spy on the Trump administration.

    The Chairmen revealed the information in a three page letter. The texts had been already been obtained by SaraACarter.com and information regarding the possible attempt to recruit White House sources had been divulged by several sources to this news site last week.

    At the time, texts obtained by this news site and sources stated that Strzok had one significant contact within the White House – at the time that would have been Vice President Mike Pence’s Chief of Staff Joshua Pitcock, as reported.

    Over the past year, Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz, along with years of numerous Congressional investigations, has uncovered a plethora of documentation revealing the most intimate details of the FBI’s now debunked investigation into Trump’s campaign and its alleged conspiracy with Russia.

    For example, in a series of emails exchanged by top bureau officials – in the FBI General Counsel’s office, Counterintelligence Division and Washington Field office on Jan. 19, 2017 – reveal that senior leadership, including former Deputy Director Andrew McCabe were coordinating with each other in their ongoing attempt to target the incoming administration. Priestap was also included in the email exchanges. The recent discovery in April, of Priestap’s handwritten notes taken in January, 2017 before the Strzok and his FBI partner interviewed Flynn were a bombshell. In Priestap’s notes he states, “What’s our goal? Truth/Admission or to get him to lie, so we can prosecute him or get him fired?”

    In one recent email chain obtained by Judicial Watch, FBI assistant general counsel in the FBI’s National Security Law Branch stated in an email to Strzok [which was almost entirely redacted]

    “I’ll give Trisha/Baker a heads up too,” it stated. Strzok’s reply to the assistant general counsel, however, was redacted by DOJ. The response back to Strzok has also been redacted.

    Then later in the evening at 7:04 p.m., Strzok sends another emails stating, “I briefed Bill (Priestap) this afternoon and he was trying without success to reach the DD [McCabe]. I will forward below to him as his [sic] changes the timeline. What’s your recommendation?”

    The reply, like many of the documents obtained by Judicial Watch from the DOJ, is almost entirely redacted. The email response to Strzok was from the Counterintelligence Division.

    Here’s what was not redacted

    “Approved by tomorrow afternoon is the request. [Redacted] – please advise if I am missing something.” An unidentified official replies, “[Redacted], Bill is aware and willing to jump in when we need him.”

    Judicial Watch Timeline of Events On Emails Obtained Through FOIA

    At 8 p.m., Strzok responds back (copying officials in the Counterintelligence Division, Washington Field Office and General Counsel’s office):

    “Just talked with Bill. [Redacted]. Please relay above to WFO and [redacted] tonight, and keep me updated with plan for meet and results of same. Good luck.”

    Strzok then forwards the whole email exchange to Lisa Page, saying, “Bill spoke with Andy. [Redacted.] Here we go again …”

    The Day After Trump’s Inauguration

    The day after Trump’s inauguration, on Jan. 21, 2017, Strzok forwarded Page and [a redacted person] an email he’d sent that day to Priestap. Strzok asked them to “not forward/share.”

    In the email to Priestap, Strzok said, “I heard from [redacted] about the WH CI briefing routed from [redacted]. I am angry that Jen did not at least cc: me, as my branch has pending investigative matters there, this brief may play into our investigative strategy, and I would like the ability to have visibility and provide thoughts/counsel to you in advance of the briefing. This is one of the reasons why I raised the issue of lanes/responsibilities that I did when you asked her to handle WH detailee interaction.” 

    Also, on January 21, 2017, Strzok wrote largely the same message he’d sent to Priestap directly to his counterintelligence colleague Jennifer Boone,” states Judicial Watch.

    *  *  *

    From Judicial Watch Press Release:

    The records were produced to Judicial Watch in a January 2018 Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit filed after the DOJ failed to respond to a December 2017 request for all communications between Strzok and Page (Judicial Watch v. U.S. Department of Justice (No. 1:18-cv-00154)).

    The FBI has only processed emails at a rate of 500 pages per month and has yet to process text messages. At this rate, the production of these communications, which still number around 8,000 pages, would not be completed until at least late 2021.

    In other emails, Strzok comments on reporting on the anti-Trump dossier authored by Hillary Clinton’s paid operative Christopher Steele.

    In a January 2017 email, Strzok takes issue with a UK Independent report which claimed Steele had suspected there was a “cabal” within the FBI which put the Clinton email investigation above the Trump-Russia probe. Strzok, a veteran counterintelligence agent, was at the heart of both the Clinton email and Trump-Russia investigations.

    In April and June of 2017, the FBI would use the dossier as key evidence in obtaining FISA warrants to spy on Trump campaign associate Carter Page. In a declassified summary of a Department of Justice assessment of the warrants that was released by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) in January of this year, it was determined that those two applications to secretly monitor Page lacked probable cause.

    The newly released records include a January 11, 2017, email from Strzok to Lisa Page, Priestap, and Deputy Assistant Director of Counterintelligence Jon Moffa, New York Times report which refers to the dossier as containing “unsubstantiated accounts” and “unproven claims.” In the email, Strzok comments on the article, calling it “Pretty good reporting.”

    On January 14, 2017, FBI Assistant Director for Public Affairs Michael Kortan forwards to Strzok, Page and Priestap a link to a UK Independent article entitled “Former MI6 Agent Christopher Steele’s Frustration as FBI Sat On Donald Trump Russia File for Months”.

    The article, citing security sources, notes that “Steele became increasingly frustrated that the FBI was failing to take action on the intelligence from others as well as him. He came to believe there was a cover-up: that a cabal within the Bureau blocked a thorough inquiry into Mr Trump, focusing instead on the investigation into Clinton’s emails.”

    Strzok responds: “Thanks Mike. Of course not accurate [the cover-up/cabal nonsense]. Is that question gaining traction anywhere else?”

    The records also include a February 10, 2017, email from Strzok to Page mentioning then-national security adviser Michael Flynn (five days before Flynn resigned) and includes a photo of Flynn and Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Strzok also makes a joke about how McCabe had fat shamed Kislyak.

    On February 8, 2017, Strzok, under the subject “RE: EO on Economic Espionage,” emailed Lisa Page, saying, “Please let [redacted] know I talked to [redacted]. Tonight, he approached Flynn’s office and got no information.” Strzok was responding to a copy of an email Page had sent him. The email, from a redacted FBI official to Deputy Director McCabe read: “OPS has not received a draft EO on economic espionage. Instead, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce advised OPS that they received a draft, but they did not send us the draft. I’ll follow up with our detailees about this EO.” Flynn resigned on February 13, 2017.

    On January 26, 2017, Nancy McNamara of the FBI’s Inspection Division emailed Strzok and Priestap with the subject line “Leak,” saying, “Tried calling you but the phones are forwarded to SIOC. I got the tel call report, however [redacted]. Feel free to give me a call if I have it wrong.” Strzok forwarded the McNamara email to Lisa Page and an unidentified person in the General Counsel’s office, saying, “Need to talk to you about how to respond to this.”

    On January 11, 2017, Yahoo News reporter Michael Isikoff emailed Kortan, saying he’d learned that Steele had worked for the Bureau’s Eurasian organized crime section and had turned over the dossier on Trump-Russian “collusion” to the bureau in Rome. Kortan forwards Isikoff’s email to aide Richard Quinn, who forwards to Strzok “just for visibility”. Strzok forwards to his boss, Priestap and Moffa, saying, “FYI, [redacted], you or I should probably inform [redacted]. How’s your relationship with him? Bill unless you object, I’ll let Parmaan [presumably senior FBI official Bryan Paarmann] know.” Strzok forwards the whole exchange onto Lisa Page. 

    On January 18, 2017, reporter Peter Elkind of ProPublica reached out to Kortan, asking to interview Strzok, Michael Steinbach, Jim Baker, Priestap, former FBI Director James Comey and DEA administrator Chuck Rosenberg for a story Elkind was working on. Kortan replied, “Okay, I will start organizing things.” Further along in the thread, an FBI Press Office official reached out to an FBI colleague for assistance with the interviews, saying Steinbach had agreed to a “background discussion” with Elkind, who was “writing the ‘definitive’ account of what happened during the Clinton investigation, specifically, Comey’s handling of the investigation, seeking to reconstruct and explain in much greater detail what he did and why he did it.” In May 2017, Elkind wrote an article titled “The Problems With the FBI’s Email Investigation Went Well Beyond Comey,” which in light of these documents, strongly suggests many FBI officials leaked to the publication.

    Strzok ended up being scheduled to meet with Elkind at 9:30 a.m. on January 31, 2017, before an Elkind interview of Comey’s chief of staff Jim Rybicki. Elkind’s reporting on the Clinton email investigation was discussed at length in previous emails obtained by Judicial Watch. 

    “These documents suggest that President Trump was targeted by the Comey FBI as soon as he stepped foot in the Oval Office,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton. “And now we see how the Comey FBI was desperate to spin, through high-level leaks, its mishandling of the Clinton email investigation. And, in a continuing outrage, it should be noted that Wray’s FBI and Barr’s DOJ continue slow-walk the release of thousands of Page-Strzok emails – which means the remaining 8,000 pages of records won’t be reviewed and released until 2021-2022!”

    In February 2020, Judicial Watch uncovered an August 2016 email in which Strzok says that Clinton, in her interview with the FBI about her email controversy, apologized for “the work and effort” it caused the bureau and she said she chose to use it “out of convenience” and that “it proved to be anything but.” Strzok said Clinton’s apology and the “convenience” discussion were “not in” the FBI 302 report that summarized the interview.

    Also in February, Judicial Watch made public Strzok-Page emails showing their direct involvement in the opening of Crossfire Hurricane, the bureau’s investigation of alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. The records also show additional “confirmed classified emails” were found on Clinton’s unsecure non-state.gov email server “beyond the number presented” in then-FBI Director James Comey’s statements; Strzok and Page questioning the access the DOJ was granting Clinton’s lawyers; and Page revealing that the DOJ was making edits to FBI 302 reports related to the Clinton Midyear Exam investigation. The emails detail a discussion about “squashing” an issue related to the Seth Rich controversy.

    In January 2020, Judicial Watch uncovered Strzok-Page emails that detail special accommodations given to the lawyers of Clinton and her aides during the FBI investigation of the Clinton email controversy.

    In November 2019, Judicial Watch revealed Strzok-Page emails that show the attorney representing three of Clinton’s aides were given meetings with senior FBI officials.

    Also in November, Judicial Watch uncovered emails revealing that after Clinton’s statement denying the transmission of classified information over her unsecure email system, Strzok sent an email to FBI officials citing “three [Clinton email] chains” containing (C) [classified] portion marks in front of paragraphs.”

    In a related case, in May 2020, Judicial Watch received the “electronic communication” (EC) that officially launched the counterintelligence investigation, termed “Crossfire Hurricane,” of President Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. The document was written by former FBI official Peter Strzok.

  • US Spy Planes & Drones Observed Stepping Up Operations Over South China Sea
    US Spy Planes & Drones Observed Stepping Up Operations Over South China Sea

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 21:05

    At least two American spy planes were observed flying over contested waters of the South China Sea in an area southeast of Taiwan Wednesday afternoon. 

    It appears confirmation that the US military is stepping up its aerial reconnaissance activities amid soaring tensions with China, and with US warships in the region, including two aircraft carriers. The South China Morning Post reported of the spy planes:

    The US Navy MQ-4C Triton – a long endurance unmanned aerial vehicle – was seen flying towards the southeast of Taiwan at about noon on Wednesday, according to the SCS Probing Initiative (SCSPI), a Peking University think tank.

    It said a US P-8A anti-submarine aircraft and a KC-135R aerial refuelling aircraft were also seen on Thursday flying southwest of Taiwan over the South China Sea.

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    MQ-4C Triton drone, via Unmanned Systems Technology

    There were additional reports of another unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flying toward the south of Taiwan on the same day as well, suggesting significantly stepped up US reconnaissance operations in the region.

    Regional analysts have interpreted it as part of expanded US military efforts to track Chinese submarine and other underwater activities.

    This also at a moment the guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson sailed near the disputed Spratly Islands in “freedom of navigation” exercises this week.

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    The Trump administration’s new sanctions related to the Hong Kong security law, as well as visa restrictions targeting certain state-linked entities, has further put the region on edge. 

  • The Ugly Truth About The BLM Protests
    The Ugly Truth About The BLM Protests

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 20:45

    Authored by Michael Tracey via Unherd.com,

    Are journalists deliberately ignoring the effects of these devastating riots?

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    Having spent the past month traveling around the United States — from major cities to the countryside — the scale of the ‘movement’ which erupted in late May after the death of George Floyd is almost incomprehensible. According to the New York Times, which relays their finding with obvious excitement, the ‘movement’ (its precise contours seldom defined) “may be the largest” in U.S. history.

    That is certainly plausible. In which case, it would presumably be important to document how ordinary Americans, especially those most directly affected, perceive the “movement” in question.

    Scan almost any of the popular media coverage over the past six weeks and you’ll find that journalists have been steadfast in their depiction of “protesters” as unassailably “peaceful.” While the vast majority of those who attended a state-backed demonstration or some other event spurred by the ‘movement’ are unlikely to have committed any acts of physical destruction, the term “peaceful protest” doesn’t seem to quite capture the impact of a society-wide upheaval that included, as a key component, mass riots — the magnitude of which have not been seen in the U.S. since at least the 1960s.

    From large metro areas like Chicago and Minneapolis/St. Paul, to small and mid-sized cities like Fort Wayne, Indiana and Green Bay, Wisconsin, the number of boarded up, damaged or destroyed buildings I have personally observed — commercial, civic, and residential — is staggering. Keeping exact count is impossible. One might think that a major media organisation such as the New York Times would use some of their galactic journalistic resources to tally up the wreckage for posterity. But roughly six weeks later, and such a tally is still nowhere to be found.

    A standard retort one often hears is that “the riots” must not be conflated with “the protests,” which is technically accurate in certain contexts. But the distinction is not as obvious as the media like to make out. In many locations, police and fire services were diverted to accommodate these massive protests, which in turn created a vacuum that enabled the outbreak of riotous activity. As one resident of Minneapolis explained to me, emergency services told him that they would simply be unavailable during the weekend of 29-31 May, while other locals recounted with amazement that police were totally absent as their neighbourhoods burned.

    In Milwaukee, a man described being chased down by rioters after getting off the bus on his way home from work. He saw no difference between protesters and rioters; the flippant idea that these groups can be so neatly disentangled is wrong.

    This view is just as likely to be espoused by black people and other minorities as anyone else (the Milwaukee man was black), which renders the media’s strident insistence to depict the ‘movement’ as entirely peaceful incongruous with the perceptions of working-class Americans (of all races). So many of them experienced what transpired more as a painful tragedy than any kind of wondrous harmony.

    Indeed, the resulting destruction may have set their majority-minority neighbourhoods back economically for months or years, if not longer. Most had already been struggling due to the pandemic, with the riots interrupting fragile reopening plans. To exclude the perspectives of these people from popular media narratives amounts to a kind of purposefully obfuscatory, moralising snobbery. Talk about ‘erasure’.

    So why, exactly, has the scope of these riots been so assiduously downplayed, and the opinions of those who experienced them first-hand been largely ignored? A number of potential explanations ring true. For one, media elites desperately do not want to undermine the moral legitimacy of a ‘movement’ that they have cast as presumptively righteous. And highlighting that urban minority populations are generally less enthusiastic about a movement whose mantra is “Black Lives Matter” would be embarrassing for obvious reasons.

    The white liberals and Leftists who claim to be so sensitively attuned to the feelings of minorities clearly spend very little time actually talking to working class non-white people — or at least those who happen to fall outside their activist cohort. If they did, they would be saddened to discover that, unlike them, working class non-whites frequently express “small-c” conservative cultural attitudes.

    For instance, black Americans whom I’ve spoken to on the street across America in randomly-selected encounters were almost unanimous in their approval of the National Guard deployments to their neighborhood during the riots. If anything, their main criticism was that these deployments came too late to prevent the destruction.

    This certainly makes the emotional meltdown of coddled 20 and 30-something journalists, who seriously claimed that they were “endangered” by a U.S. Senator’s NYT column advocating for a military presence to maintain order in cities, look especially disconnected and bizarre. So one could understand why the media would be reluctant to feature the “voices” of minorities who take an alternate view.

    There’s also the barely-hidden fear that properly depicting the after-effects of these riots would somehow “help Trump” during an election year. Even if it could be established as true that reporting on a historically significant event would “help” the incumbent president, refraining from such reportage on that ground would obviously be wildly improper from a journalistic perspective.

    But even from a raw political standpoint, it’s almost certainly not even true. Trump’s inability to convert this post-riot political environment into some kind of electoral advantage is an irony unto itself, given the theme of his inaugural address — which ominously (but not entirely unjustifiably) invoked the specter of “American carnage”. For all the non-stop hysteria painting Trump as some kind of maniacal fascist, it truly is a lousy fascist who fails to leverage widespread social unrest and instability to consolidate power.

    Needless to say, Trump is also currently presiding over a disastrous federal pandemic response, and rapidly shedding support among elderly voters. So if one insists on behaving purely as a partisan actor — which many contemporary journalists certainly are — any fatuous “would it help Trump?” calculation ought to be irrelevant.

    Trump or no Trump, the lack of adequate coverage is the true affront. It should be more widely known that large swathes of a major American metropolis, Minneapolis/St. Paul, still lies in rubble over a month after the riots. And the main perpetrators of this destruction — namely those who committed the most incendiary arson attacks — were, by many accounts relayed to me directly, white Left-wing activists. Refusing to seek out and accurately present this information reflects the mainstream media’s propensity to operate under predetermined, politicised assumptions that are antithetical to any rightly-understood conception of journalism.

    Travelling around Minneapolis, one frequently sees the anarchist “A” symbol scrawled on charred and/or boarded-up buildings, as well as catchphrases like “Viva La Revolucion” — expressions typical of Left-wing activists. Indeed, it’s abundantly clear that there was a strong ideological component to these riots, one that’s also been under-emphasised by the media, again likely because of the belief that it could in some vague sense “help Trump.” I spoke to numerous residents who are convinced that white out-of-towners were the ones who instigated the most severe chaos, after which locals latched on opportunistically. Marianne Robinson, a black woman who has resided in Chicago’s South Side for decades, asked me if I was familiar with “antifa” and blamed them for the riots.

    Flora Westbrooks of Minneapolis, whose hair salon was burned down, was likewise convinced that the perpetrators could not have possibly been familiar with the neighbourhood given her longstanding community ties there. The theory might be a tad over-simplistic, but it does seem at least partially accurate. A (white) rioter I interviewed, who was present when the Third Police Precinct building in Minneapolis burned, remarked to me that he found himself in jail alongside people who came from as far as Missouri, Florida, Colorado, California and other distant states. He said they ventured to Minnesota out of a mixture of thrill-seeking and inchoate political grievance.

    A police officer on foot patrol in Chicago’s heavily-black West Side remarked to me how perplexed she was by the lack of coverage of the damage in these neighbourhoods. Indeed, a simple drive around such parts of Chicago reveals a stunning number of boarded-up establishments, many of which appear like they will never return. The officer mused that she enjoyed the social-work aspects of the job — I watched her greeting various street-dwellers by name — and so, far from seeing the “Defund the Police” slogan and other expressions of animosity as an existential threat to the Chicago Police Department, regarded it as so detached from her everyday experience that she wasn’t even bothered. Over the course of my ten days in Minneapolis, I didn’t see a single officer on foot patrol, which is highly unusual for a major American city.

    In Chicago, at the peak of the riots during the last weekend in May, there were a record-breaking 18 homicides in a single 24-hour period — the most since such data started being collected in 1961. I mention this not to make a knee-jerk “what about black-on-black crime” point, but simply to ask in general terms: why wasn’t this historic occurrence featured more prominently in the coverage of these protests?

    Something extreme just happened in America. I could give dozens of additional examples of reportorial tidbits which don’t align with the prevailing media narrative that has flourished in the wake of this “movement”. And if you hadn’t seen it directly, would you ever know?

  • "We Need To Earn Money" – Bleach-Bottle-Wielding Bolivian Sex Workers In "Biosecurity Suits" Prepare For Work
    “We Need To Earn Money” – Bleach-Bottle-Wielding Bolivian Sex Workers In “Biosecurity Suits” Prepare For Work

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 20:25

    Bolivian sex workers are preparing for a post-corona world, one where they will sport skimpy see-through “biosecurity suits” while performing sex acts on clients, reported Reuters.   

    The sex workers, based in brothels in the capital La Paz, have been given a 30-page safe sex manual drawn up by the Organization of Night Workers of Bolivia (OTN). 

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    OTN outlines sex workers should wear “biosecurity suits” and be prepared to carry sanitary tools to mitigate COVID-19 spreading, such as bottles of bleach, masks, and gloves. The industry group is demanding the government relax day-time business restrictions for brothels that remain heavily restricted. 

    Lily Cortes, a spokesperson of OTN, told Reuters that some sex workers would resort to prostitution on the streets if brothels remain close. Another sex worker, who goes by the name Antonieta, showed Reuters earlier this month her space-suit-like outfit, consisting of a raincoat, gloves, plastic visor, and face mask. She said bleach is used on a pole she uses for clients at the brothel. 

    “The biosecurity suit will allow us to work and protect ourselves,” she said.

    AP said kissing would be banned, and mask-wearing is mandatory in brothels. 

    Sex worker Luna hopes for the sake of her family that she can get back to work: 

     “We are part of society. The majority of us are single mothers. We have children and live alone. We need to earn money,” Luna said. 

    Landlocked Bolivia has more than 49,000 cases and nearly 1,900 deaths on Tuesday. In early June, government officials relaxed some lockdowns but left brothels closed. 

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    We noted Tuesday sex workers in Germany were furious the government continued to refuse brothels reopening status. 

  • Is Israel Hoping To Start A War With Iran Before US Elections?
    Is Israel Hoping To Start A War With Iran Before US Elections?

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 20:05

    Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

    Recent rounds of sabotage attacks against Iranian targets have been consistently blamed on Israel. It’s not just Israel being Israel, according to some officials familiar with the situation, but rather, Israel trying to start a war while Trump is still in power.

    Israel sees war as a tougher sell if Biden gets elected, while Trump would be easier, especially ahead of the vote. EU officials were reportedly concerned Israel would try to provoke something soon. Israeli officials refuse to comment on specific sabotage operations.

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    Recent explosion in western Tehran, among a series of mysterious incidents at key military and industrial sites, file image.

    Veteran Middle East war correspondent Mitch Prothero writes in a bombshell Business Insider report based on Israeli government sources:

    Israel is involved in an extended campaign to pressure or damage Iran before President Donald Trump can be voted out of office in the November election, a former Israeli defense official and a current European Union intelligence official told Insider.

    Iran has seen weekly incidents, including explosions at a missile-production facility on June 22; the Natanz nuclear facility, Iran’s largest uranium-enrichment center, on July 2; and an important shipyard in the port city of Bushehr on Wednesday.

    Israeli officials concede it is “common knowledge” they are behind some of the Iran attacks, but they don’t want to specify which ones when there are so many candidates.

    Officials also say their policy on Iran is clear, without confirming or denying trying to suck the US into a war.

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    The report says further:

    A former Israeli defense official told Insider it was common knowledge in Israeli intelligence circles that at least some of the events in Iran over the past month were the work of Israeli intelligence operations.

    “I don’t know which ones exactly and wouldn’t tell you anyway because the entire point is for the Iranians to feel considerable stress trying to decide what might have been our work,” they said.

    Trump’s own administration has some officials very keen on provoking fights with Iran, but so far Trump has resisted launching a war. It’s not clear, with his “most pro-Israel ever” label on the line, he could resist joining an Israeli war.

    Israel has been keen on a war with Iran for decades, and is always trying to pick a good time to sucker the US into the conflict. While Iran focuses on defensive preparedness, it’s likely they’ll be advised by allies to try to resist any reaction to the provocations through November hoping that as this window closes, Israel will dial back attacks.

  • 'Work-From-Home' Will Reduce US Driving By 270 Billion Miles Per Year, KPMG Finds
    ‘Work-From-Home’ Will Reduce US Driving By 270 Billion Miles Per Year, KPMG Finds

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 19:45

    With tens of millions of Americans out of work, people fleeing cities for rural communities, others working from home, online shopping flourishing, and the virus remerging in many states forcing governors to pause or reverse reopenings, consultancy firm KPMG International has some bad news for those betting the economy is going to “rocket ship” recovery as President Trump boasts about at press conferences and on Twitter. The consultancy firm warns “social-distancing measures” will “dramatically cut the amount of miles Americans travel by car” (fewer miles driven is terrible news for an economy driven by consumer spending). 

    The effects of COVID-19 will be felt for years. The response to the virus has accelerated powerful behavioral changes that will continue to shape how Americans use automobiles. We believe the changes in commuting and e-commerce are here to stay and that the combined effect of reduced commuting and shopping journeys could be as much as 270 billion fewer vehicle miles traveled (VMT) each year in the US. -KPMG 

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    At the height of lockdowns in April, Americans drove 64% fewer miles, “an unprecedented decline in travel,” noted Bloomberg. KPMG estimates 10% permanent reduction of the almost 3 trillion miles driven each and year, and vehicle ownership will slump. 

    “People buy a car to get to and from work and because shopping is a very important part of their lives,” Gary Silberg, head of KPMG’s global automotive practice, told Bloomberg in an interview. “If two of the primary missions that the American public buys a car for are going to reduce in demand, we know that’s going to have an adverse impact on auto sales. It’s just like gravity.”

    The report states, the new normal could be as many as “14 million fewer cars” on America’s highways. This is good for anyone who still has a job and commutes – rush our in some metros areas have already been eliminated. 

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    However, there’s always a consequence – that is, automakers, retailers, and industries directly or indirectly related to transportation will take a massive hit for the next several years. 

    Falling VMT would also affect used-car sales and aftermarket parts and service: less driving also means less wear and tear on vehicles, as well as a decline in traffic accidents, cutting into the lucrative collision parts business. Auto aftermarket suppliers will likely see a significant falloff in demand for replacement parts and maintenance services. – KPMG 

    KPMG outlines three scenarios of falling VMT will result in declining car ownership through 2025.

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    The key takeaway of the report is that change in habits and jobs along with an economic downturn could result in few miles driven by Americans for many years, indicating a V-shaped recovery in the overall economy is certainly not in the cards for this year or next. 

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    KPMG’s conclusion: “COVID-19 is the defining event of 2020–and will continue to shape society, politics, and business for years to come.”

    It’s all downhill from here…

  • Walter Williams Blasts The Despicable Behavior Of Today's Academicians
    Walter Williams Blasts The Despicable Behavior Of Today’s Academicians

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 19:25

    Authored by Walter Williams, op-ed via Townhall.com,

    The Michigan State University administration pressured professor Stephen Hsu to resign from his position as vice president of research and innovation because he touted research that found police are not more likely to shoot black Americans. The study found:

    “The race of a police officer did not predict the race of the citizen shot. In other words, black officers were just as likely to shoot black citizens as white officers were.”

    For political reasons, the authors of the study sought its retraction.

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    The U.S. Department of Education warned UCLA that it may impose fines for improperly and abusively targeting white professor Lt. Col. W. Ajax Peris for disciplinary action over his use of the n-word while reading to his class Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “Letter from Birmingham Jail” that contained the expressions “when your first name becomes “n—-r,” your middle name becomes “boy” (however old you are). Referring to white civil rights activists King wrote, “They have languished in filthy, roach-infested jails, suffering the abuse and brutality of policemen who view them as ‘dirty n—-r-lovers.'”

    Boston University is considering changing the name of its mascot Rhett because of his link to “Gone with the Wind.” Almost 4,000 Rutgers University students signed a petition to rename campus buildings Hardenbergh Hall, Frelinghuysen Hall, and Milledoler Hall because these men were slave owners. University of Arkansas students petitioned to remove a statue of J. William Fulbright because he was a segregationist who opposed the Brown v. Board of Education that ruled against school segregation.

    The suppression of free speech and ideas by the elite is nothing new. It has a long ugly history. Galileo Galilei was a 17th-century Italian astronomer, physicist, and engineer, sometimes called “father of modern physics.” The Catholic Church and other scientists of his day believed that the Earth was the center of the universe. Galileo offered evidence that the Earth traveled around the sun — heliocentrism. That made him “vehemently suspect of heresy” and was forced to recant and sentenced to formal imprisonment at the pleasure of the Inquisition and was later commuted to house arrest for the rest of his life.

    Much of today’s totalitarianism, promotion of hate and not to mention outright stupidity, has its roots on college campuses. Sources that report on some of the more egregious forms of the abandonment of free inquiry, hate, and stupidity at our colleges are College Reform and College Fix.

    Prof. William S. Penn, who was a Distinguished Faculty Award recipient at Michigan State University in 2003, and a two-time winner of the prestigious Stephen Crane Prize for Fiction, explained to his students, “This country still is full of closet racists.” He said:

    “Republicans are not a majority in this country anymore. They are a bunch of dead white people. Or dying white people.”

    The public has recently been treated to the term — white privilege. Colleges have long-held courses and seminars on “whiteness.” One college even has a course titled “Abolition of Whiteness.” According to some academic intellectuals, whites enjoy advantages that non-whites do not. They earn a higher income and reside in better housing, and their children go to better schools and achieve more. Based on that idea, Asian Americans have more white privilege than white people. And, on a personal note, my daughter has more white privilege than probably 95% of white Americans.

    Evidence of how stupid college ideas find their way into the public arena can be seen on our daily news. Don Lemon, a CNN anchorman, said, “We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them.” Steven Clifford, a former King Broadcasting CEO, said, “I will be leading a great movement to prohibit straight white males, who I believe supported Donald Trump by about 85 percent, from exercising the franchise (to vote), and I think that will save our democracy.”

    As George Orwell said, “Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them.”

    If the stupid ideas of academic intellectuals remained on college campuses and did not infect the rest of society, they might be a source of entertainment — much like a circus.

  • Heat Dome Roasts US With Temps Forecast To Approach 100°F  
    Heat Dome Roasts US With Temps Forecast To Approach 100°F  

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 19:05

    A massive heat dome is set to intensify this weekend, expected to roast hundreds of millions of Americans with temperatures in some regions approaching 95-100°F.

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    A portion of the same weather system, a large area of high pressure, that has been building and broiling the south-central United States much of this week will poke northeastward in the coming days.

    Actual temperatures are forecast to rise well into the 90s F from portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York state, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, West Virginia, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia.

    A few locations over the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley can reach or exceed 100 degrees for a couple of hours in the afternoon on Sunday and Monday. – Accuweather 

    Meteorologist Ryan Maue tweeted, “the Lower 48 average high temperature will be over 90°F 🌡️ 265 million population 90°+” on Saturday. 

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    h/t Meteorologist Ryan Maue

    The National Weather Service warns heat indices over 100°F will be found in the Midwest through the weekend. 

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    The National Integrated Drought Information System warns “outside of the Southeast, every region of the USA has some drought.” 

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    Here’s Refinitiv weather analyst Ed Whalen’s US weather forecast for the next 1-5 days, 6-10 days, and 11-15 days. The report is specially tailored for natural gas traders. 

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    While approximately 90% of households have air conditioning, that doesn’t necessarily mean they can afford it this year as a virus-induced recession, coupled with a fiscal cliff is badly pressuring household finances. Some people might have to wait until the second round of Trump checks arrive before they lower their thermostats below 68°F. 

  • Billionaire Dalio Warns US-China Tensions "Could Evolve Into Shooting War", Sees Parallels To '30s Lead Up To World War II
    Billionaire Dalio Warns US-China Tensions “Could Evolve Into Shooting War”, Sees Parallels To ’30s Lead Up To World War II

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 18:45

    In an 8,000-word-plus tome, Ray Dalio, billionaire founder of Bridgewater – the world’s largest hedge fund, took to LinkedIn to expand on his previous discussions about what happens next geostrategically, fearing economic tensions between the US and China escalating into armed conflict, drawing parallels between the current situation and the years before World War I and World War II.

    “…the United States and China are now in an economic war that could conceivably evolve into a shooting war, and I’ve never experienced an economic war, I studied a number of past ones to learn what they are like,” he wrote.

    Comparisons between the 1930s leading to World War II and today, especially with regard to economic sanctions, are especially interesting and helpful in considering what might be ahead,” he added.

    During times of great conflict, Dalio writes that there exists a tendency to move to “more autocratic leadership” to bring stability to chaos, concluding that rival powers only enter into wars when they are roughly comparable:

    “Smart leaders typically only go into hot wars if there is no choice because the other side pushes them into the position of either fighting or losing by backing down. That is how World War II began.”

    With sanctions being swapped and the angry rhetoric rising, we suspect Dalio’s warnings are more likely than ever.

    *  *  *

    Excerpts via LinkedIn:

    The Big Cycle of the United States and the Dollar, Part 1

    This is Part 1 of a two-part chapter on the US Empire and its path along the archetypical big cycle of dominant powers. It covers the period up through World War II. In Part 2, we will cover from the beginning of the new world order right up to this moment. It will be out on Tuesday, July 21.

    To remind you, I did this study so that I could understand how we got to where we are and how to deal with the situations we are facing, but I am no great historian.  I’m just a guy with a compulsion to understand how these things work and to bet on what will happen, who has access to great research assistants, fabulous data, incredibly informed experts, lots of insightful written research, and my own experiences.  I’m using all of this to try to figure out what’s true and what to do about it.  I am not ideological.  I am mechanical.  I look at reality as a perpetual-motion machine with cause/effect relationships driving developments through time.  I am sharing this information with you to take or leave as you like and to have you point out any inaccuracies you think might exist as we try to figure out together what’s true and what to do about it.  

    This chapter is a continuation of the last chapter in which we started to look at each of the leading reserve currency empires over the last 500 years, starting with the Dutch and British empires.

    As we delve into the particulars of the last 90 years, it is easy to lose sight of the big arcs, most importantly the three big cycles—i.e., the long-term debt/monetary cycle, the wealth and political gap cycle, and the global geopolitical cycle—as well as the eight major types of power and the 17 major drivers behind them.  I will try to keep it simple, emphasizing just the most important developments in just the most influential countries, but if you find that the story starts getting more complicated than you’d like, remember that you can just read the text in bold in order to get the main points without complication.  

    World affairs and history are complicated because there is a lot going on both within and between relevant countries.  Understanding just the most important relevant issues of just the most important countries is challenging because one has to see all of these perspectives accurately and simultaneously.  All countries are living out their own stories that transpire on a daily basis, and these stories are woven together to make up the world story.  But typically, at any one time, there are only a few leading countries and a limited number of major themes that make up the major story of the changing world order.  Since the end of World War I, the most relevant stories have been those of Great Britain, the United States, Germany, Japan, the Soviet Union, and China.  I’m not saying that these are the only countries that matter because that isn’t true.  But I am saying that the story of the changing world order since World War I can be pretty well told by understanding the main developments within and between these countries.  In this chapter I will attempt to briefly tell the stories of these countries and their most important interactions.  This is the highlights version of the more complete version of the stories that I will pass to you in Part 2 of this book.   

    In telling these stories I will try to convey them without bias.  I believe that to accurately understand both history and what is happening now, I need to see things through the relevant parties’ eyes, including those of enemies.  While there are of course allies and enemies and it is tempting to demonize the enemies, most people and countries are simply pursuing their own interests in the ways they believe are best for them, so I find it productive to try to see things through their eyes and counterproductive to demonize them.  If you hear me say things that sound sympathetic to former or existing enemies—like “Hitler built a strong economy before going to war”—please know that it is because I am seeking accuracy and need to be truthful rather than politically correct in conveying my thinking.  While I might be wrong and we might not agree, that’s all OK with me as long as I am describing the picture as accurately as I can.

    Before I begin recounting the story of the United States I’d like to remind you of the archetypical Big Cycle that I described earlier so you can keep it in mind as you read about how events transpired up to the present.  Though a super-oversimplification of the whole thing, in a nutshell it appears to me that the archetypical Big Cycle transpires as follows.

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    A new world order typically begins after radical changes in how things work within countries (i.e., via some form of revolution) and between countries (typically some form of war).  They change in big ways who has wealth and power and the approaches used to get wealth and power.  For example in 1945, when the latest world order began, the US and its capitalist and democratic allies squared off against the communist and autocratic approaches of the Soviet Union and its allies.  As we saw from studying the Dutch and British empires, capitalism was key to these countries’ successes but also contributed to their failures.  It was successful because the pursuit of profit motivated people, and the competitive process of allocating capital and profit making directed resources relatively efficiently to what people wanted enough to pay for.  In this system those who allocated efficiently profited, which led to them gaining more resources, while those who couldn’t allocate well died economically. 

    At the same time, this system of increasing wealth produced widening wealth and opportunity gaps, as well as decadence in the form of people working less and increasingly living on borrowed money.  As the wealth and opportunity gaps grew, that produced increasingly widespread views that the system wasn’t fair.  When the debt problems and other factors led to bad economic times at the same time as the wealth and values gaps were large, that produced a lot of internal conflict that led to large, revolutionary changes in who had wealth and power and the processes for getting them.  Sometimes these big changes were made peacefully, and sometimes they were made violently.  When the leading countries suffered from these internal challenges at the same time as rival countries had become strong enough to challenge them, the risks of external wars increased.  When these seismic shifts in how wealth and power are distributed occur within countries (i.e., via revolutions) or between countries (typically through wars, though sometimes peacefully), the old world order breaks down and a new world order begins, and the process starts all over again.  

    To refresh your memory, the chart below shows the relative powers of the leading countries as measured in indices that measure eight different types of power—education, competitiveness, innovation/technology, trade, economic output, military, financial center status, and reserve currency status.  

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    In examining each country’s rise and decline I look at each of the eight measures and convey the highlights of their stories while diving into key moments to understand how they transpired in a more granular way.  We will now do that with the United States and China, which as you can see in this chart are currently the leading powers.  

    The US Empire and the US Dollar

    While this section primarily focuses on the story of the US since it overtook the British Empire as the dominant global power during the world wars, we will first take a quick look at the whole arc of its rise and its somewhat recent relative decline.  The chart below shows the eight types of power that make up our overall measure of power.  In it you can see the story behind the US’s rise and decline since 1700.  We start in 1700 because that was just before the emergence of the United States.  While the area now occupied by the United States was of course inhabited by native people for thousands of years, the history of the United States as a nation begins with the colonists, who revolted against the colonial power of Great Britain to gain independence in 1776.  In the chart you can see the seeds of the US’s rise going back to the early 1800s, starting with rising strengths in education and then in innovation/technology and competitiveness. 

     These powers and world circumstances allowed the US to create massive productivity growth during the Second Industrial Revolution, which was from around 1870 to the beginning of World War I and then beyond it.  These increased strengths were reflected in the US’s increasing shares of global economic output and world trade, as well as growing its financial strength, exemplified in New York becoming the world’s leading financial center, continuing leadership in innovations, and great usage of its financial products.  You can see that these measures of the United States’ powers relative to its own history reached their peaks in the 1950s immediately after the Allies won World War II.  

    At that time, the gap between the US and the rest of the world was at its greatest and the US dollar and the US world order became dominant.  Though the United States was clearly the dominant power in the post-World War II period, the Soviet Empire was a rival, though it was never nearly as strong overall.  The Soviets and their communist satellite states vied against the much stronger US and US allies and satellite states until Soviet power began to fade under the weight of its growing inefficiency around 1980 and then collapsed in 1989-91.  That is about when China began to rise to become a comparable rival power to the US where it is today.  

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    As you can see, while the United States’ relative strengths of education, competitiveness, trade, and production have declined significantly and steadily over the last 100 years (to now be around the 50-60th percentile versus other leading powers), its relative strength in innovation and technology, reserve currency status, financial center power, and military have remained at or near the top.  At the same time, as we will see when we delve into China’s picture, China has gained on the US in all these areas, has become comparable in many ways, and is advancing considerably faster than the US.     

    Let’s now drop down from the 40,000-foot level to the 20,000-foot level and pick up our story in 1930 so we can see how the United States evolved to become the dominant world power.  While we focus predominantly on the US story, the linkages between economic conditions and political conditions within the United States and between the United States and other countries—most importantly with the UK, Germany, and Japan in the 1930s, with the Soviet Union and Japan from around 1950 until 1990, and with China from around 1980 until now—must be understood because economics and geopolitics within and between countries were and always are intertwined. 

    As a principle: 

    Protecting one’s wealth in times of war is difficult, as normal economic activities are curtailed, traditionally safe investments are not safe, capital mobility is limited, and high taxes are imposed when people and countries are fighting for their survival.  During difficult times of conflict protecting the wealth of those who have wealth is not a priority relative to redistributing wealth to get it to where it is needed most.  

    That was the case in those war years.  

    While we won’t cover the actual battles and war moves, the headline is that the Allied victory in 1945 produced a tremendous shift of wealth and power.  

    World War II was an extremely costly war in lives and money.  The numbers are gigantic and extremely imprecise.  An estimated 40-75 million people were killed as a result of it, which was 3% of the world’s population, which made it the deadliest war yet.  More than half of these losses were Russian (around 25 million) and Chinese (around 20 million).  Germany lost around 7 million people—just over half were military deaths and the rest were German civilian deaths, mostly from the Holocaust (and millions more non-Germans were also victims).  Britain and the United States each lost around 400,000.  The financial cost of the war was both enormous and inestimable, according to most experts, but, based on my research, was in the vicinity of $4-7 trillion in current dollars.  What we do know is that on a relative basis the US came out a big winner because the US sold and lent a lot before and during the war, basically all of the fighting took place off of US territory so the US wasn’t physically damaged, and US deaths were comparatively low in relation to those of most other major countries.  

    In Part 2 of this chapter, we will explore the new world order starting with the US as the dominant power and tell the story that brings us right up to this moment. Then we will turn to China.

    Read the full note here…

  • China Hit By $9 Billion In FX Outflows In June
    China Hit By $9 Billion In FX Outflows In June

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 18:25

    With the US dollar now officially primed and weaponized amid growing speculation that the Trump administration is contemplating busting the Hong Kong-US Dollar peg as a means of destabilizing China’s financial system as the Cold War between the US and China rolls out in earnest, attention is (or should be) again shifting to China’s capital outflows (especially with Chinese banks suddenly hit by an unprecedented surge in bank runs).

    Addressing this issue, Goldman writes overnight that according to the bank’s preffered gauge of FX flows, there was an outflow of around US$9bn in June (vs. US$19bn inflows in May), and the most since the March crisis, with seasonal investment income payout contributing to the outflows in June, while net foreign buying of Chinese equities and bonds remained strong. Still, as the chart below clearly shows, the June outflow was tiny in comparison to the massive capital flight observed in late 2015 and 2016, following China’s surprise yuan devaluation.

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    Overall net FX outflows composed of US$12bn in net outflows via outright spot transactions, US$8bn in net inflow via forward transactions, and US$5bn outflows in cross-border RMB net payments from onshore to offshore.

    * * *

    Some more details from Goldman on this latest net outflow, which according to the bank’s calculations based on the SAFE dataset of “onshore FX settlement”, non-banks showed net FX outflows of around US$4bn in June (vs. US$18bn inflows in May). This is composed of US$12bn in net outflows via outright spot transactions, and US$8bn in net inflow via freshly entered and canceled forward transactions. Another SAFE dataset on “cross-border RMB flows” shows that on a net basis, domestic banks saw net RMB payments of US$5bn from onshore to offshore. In summary, Goldman’s preferred FX flow measure therefore suggest in total US$9bn outflows in June, in comparison with the US$19bn inflows in May.

    Investment income payout contributed to the outflows in June. Cross-border net payments under “current account – income and transfers” rose to US$21bn in June, vs US$14bn in May (a majority of them are likely denominated in RMB) and net FX sales for “current account – income and transfers” went up to US$8bn, from US$3bn in May. Investment income payout tends to be seasonal with June being the peak season of payouts – on average in the past three years, investment income payout tends to drive US$14bn more outflows in June in comparison with May. A smaller goods trade surplus and thus smaller net FX inflows through the goods trade channel also contributed to the overall net outflows in June.

    Foreign buying of Chinese bonds and equities continued to be strong – bond foreign inflows were US$11bn in June, vs US$16bn in May, and net northbound buying through the Stock Connect program was around US$4bn in June, vs US$1bn in May.

    SAFE data on cross-border trade receipts suggest the goods trade repatriation ratio (net foreign receipts under goods trade channel as a share of goods trade surplus) was at 37% in Q2, higher than the 30% in Q1, likely on the back of improved sentiment towards the currency later in the quarter – the CNY appreciated against USD by around 1% in June.

    Official FX reserves (released earlier in the month) stood at US$3,112bn in June, US$11bn higher than May. Based on our estimate, FX valuation effects accounted for most of the increase. After adjusting for the FX valuation effect, FX reserves increased by US$1bn in June.

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Today’s News 17th July 2020

  • Court Rules 'ISIS Terror Bride' Can Freely Return Home To UK From Syria
    Court Rules ‘ISIS Terror Bride’ Can Freely Return Home To UK From Syria

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 02:45

    Last year we detailed the political firestorm unleashed in the UK after so-called British jihadist bride Shamima Begum demanded of British authorities to be repatriated. 

    The now 20-year old UK citizen joined Islamic State in 2015 after fleeing the UK when she was just 15. Last year she gave birth in a Syrian refugee camp and is demanding safe return to Britain for fear that she and her child could die in the camp, so near the war zone. Proponents for her legal return to British soil have argued that as a teenager she was unwittingly manipulated into traveling to Syria by ISIS propaganda. 

    But over a year ago her family was notified in a letter (on Feb. 19) from the Home Secretary  that authorities had revoked her British citizenship because she traveled to join a foreign terrorist group. The decision has been under appeal while Begum and her child remain in custody of US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeast Syria. 

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    Shamima Begum, via ITV News/Daily Express

    But on Thursday British High Court judges ruled she should be allowed to return to the United Kingdom. CNN reports

    The Court of Appeal and a Divisional Court of the High Court on Thursday ruled Begum should be allowed to return to the United Kingdom to pursue her appeal before the Special Immigrations Appeals Commission (SIAC) “albeit subject to such controls as the Secretary of State deems appropriate.”

    Under the 1981 British Nationality Act, UK authorities have the legal right to revoke a person’s citizenship should it be “conducive to the public good” and they won’t become stateless as a result. She was captured in early 2019 in that was at the time ISIS’ last holdout pocket of Baghuz, in Syria Deir ez-Zor province. While in an SDF detention camp, she remains stateless since her British citizenship was stripped. 

    Conservatives in Britain, such as previous Interior Minister Sajid Javid argued at the time the Begum case was driving national headlines that “dangerous individuals” coming back to the UK from battlefields in the Middle East should be stripped of their British citizenship. He said this option has already been “so far exercises more than 100 times,” otherwise he also advocates prosecution of apprehended returning suspects “regardless of their age and gender.” 

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    “Jidadi Bride” Shamima Begum being interviewed by Sky News.

    Conservative MPs have said they would not “hesitate to prevent” the return of Britons who set off for the Middle East to join ISIS. 

    The UK Home Office is expected to fight the High Court appeals decision to allow her to return, with a spokesperson saying the decision was “very disappointing”. The statement said further: “The government’s top priority remains maintaining our national security and keeping the public safe.”

    In recent interviews she expressed respect for “British values” while also demanding British ‘fairness’ in her case, yet still said she did not regret traveling to Syria to join ISIS and some aspects of the “good life” under the Islamic State

    This latest decision to allow her return to the UK will unleash fresh debate and controversy, given Britons will no doubt be legitimately concerned over having someone who willingly and unrepentantly joined ISIS living freely in their midst. 

  • Turkey:  At Cross Purposes
    Turkey:  At Cross Purposes

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 07/17/2020 – 02:00

    Submitted by Gefira

    Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced the conversion of the Hagia Sophia from the museum to a mosque.

    The temple, which was built in 537 and served as the greatest Christian orthodox cathedral for a thousand years, was turned into a mosque in 1453 at the fall of Constantinople, Byzantium’s capital. After four centuries in 1934 this mosque was turned into a museum by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who wanted to tout himself to the world as a modern ruler of secular Turkey. President Erdoğan’s announcement met with an enthusiastic applause of the Muslims, not only those residing in Turkey. Much of the Western press denounced the move as Erdoğan’s maneuver aimed at diverting the nation’s attention from the current economic problems. This explanation – Marxist through and through – does not take into consideration at least two factors: psychological (Muslim faith) and political (symbolic message to the world). A nation’s attention can be diverted in a wide variety of ways, so why should it be the conversion of a museum into a mosque?

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    Turkey’s Hagia Sophia turned back into a mosque, causing a divide, CBC News: Tha National YouTube.

    Atheist, deist or agnostic Western analysts typically cannot grasp the phenomenon of religious faith, its palpable reality. In scientific terms faith can be viewed as a psychological phenomenon and psychological phenomena are to be reckoned with just as physical ones or – at times – even more. Man is constricted in his actions by these two: physical reality and his internal psychological automatic pilot, so to say. It is not true that faith can move mountains in the literal sense of the world, but it is not true either that everything is a matter of physical coercion. There are women who turn prostitutes although they have money to burn, and there are such who will never even consider selling themselves despite the fact that they suffer want.

    Religious (read: psychological) factor is as strong as economic. Failure to understand it caused the Western liberals to import millions of Muslims to (post-)Christian countries. The liberals regarded religious faith as a mere facet of tradition, culture or heritage, which can be changed at will and which constitutes no serious impediment to liberal ideas. How wrong they were is plain to see today, when religious – mainly Muslim – minorities pose serious social problems. Turkey has a special Directorate of Religious Affairs (known as Diyanet for short) that operates also abroad, especially among Turks dispersed in many West European countries. There is nothing comparable to it in any of the Western countries. The Diyanet has a large budget at its disposal and the word religious in its name obviously equates with Muslim.

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    Turkey turns Hagia Sophia back into a mosque, TRT World YouTube.

    Western analysts also claim that President Erdoğan has broken with the secular tradition set down by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, as the former was creating the modern Turkish state on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War. They either genuinely fail to recognize that secularism is the same as faith or religion only with the minus sign assigned to it or they intentionally do it to present themselves as those who occupy moral high ground. Why should secularism be something better than religiousness? Being lukewarm Christians at best, the Western journalists are incapable of imagining how serious this psychological phenomenon known as religious faith can be. If they have this inability to place themselves in the shoes of genuine believers, they should at least learn something from psychology. If they could be bothered to do so, that is. Then they would have learnt that religion is anything that constitutes the highest value in a man’s psyche. Hence, it need not be Christianity or Islam alone; religion can take the form of communism, fascism, feminism or secularism for that matter. A few centuries earlier Europeans discovering, conquering and administering foreign territories would bring with themselves the Christian cross and Bible (one of Columbus’s ships was named the Santa Maria); today, Western powers display homosexual rainbow flags on foreign territory and enforce accepting homosexual rights the way they once forced indigenous people to accept Christianity.

    Why should Turks refrain from re-converting a mosque-turned-museum into a mosque and be somehow ashamed of it when at almost the same time Americans and the British can be proud of flying homosexual flags from their Moscow embassies? Why should the former message be reprehensible while the latter not? The West treats its enshrined values with all seriousness, why should the East not treat theirs in an analogous way? Why should the allegedly high-minded principle of secularism stymie the expression of Muslim or Christian beliefs but not those of homosexuals?

    It was in 1934 that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk signed an order that turned Istanbul’s historical mosque into a museum. At around that time – a few years earlier and a few years later – Soviet commissars would do the same in the vast territory of the Soviet Union: some churches and mosques – the lucky ones, we might say – would be converted into museums (of faith and atheism!), others into stables, depots, and similar facilities. Was the conversion of Istanbul’s landmark mosque – to use present-day political vernacular – not a slap in the face of the then Muslims and a violation of human rights to profess any religious faith? Is President Erdoğan’s act not a rectification of the past wrong? Whence this doublethink?

    President Erdoğan has long been thinking about reconverting the Hagia Sophia into a mosque. He has just delivered on his promise. Western mainstream media are now doing what they are accustomed to: they give the floor to westernized Turks, irreligious Turks living in the West or Turkish domestic dissidents – in a word all those who oppose Erdoğan’s move – and thus the media make the impression that the majority of Turks would so much rather their president ordered the Turkish embassy in Moscow to fly the homosexual flag instead of recovering the Hagia Sophia for Islam. That’s what these media habitually do. When president Putin wins an election or a referendum, when a right-wing candidate wins in an East European country, the BBC, Deutsche Welle and their ilk hasten to impress it on their viewers, listeners and readers that countries with such winning candidates have serious problems with democracy and human rights. That is to say demos (the people) electing a right-wing candidate is doing harm to democracy. In this case, too, selected residents of such countries are chosen to voice their criticism and express their fear at what is going on. The usual trick.

    These considerations apart, Turkey’s president may also be testing the West’s fortitude. Not that there is much to be tested. Again and again the world could see the West’s total inability to act and incompetence to undertake anything. The 2015 influx of Third World people and the handling of it when President Erdoğan was paid billions to act as Europe’s bouncer spoke volumes. He might consider cashing in another billion for not converting the museum into a mosque, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Post-Christian Europe would rather pay him for not closing a mosque.

    Pope Francis uttered the usual words of “concern” (all impotent politicians utter words of concern), but that’s about everything he can do. And why should President Erdoğan care? What does he think about the pope who in 2019 together with the Grand Imam of Al Azhar signed the Abu Dhabi Declaration, in which it is stated that “the pluralism and the diversity of religions are willed by God in His wisdom”?1)Why should such a pope care whether Hagia Sophia is Christian, secular or Muslim?

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    Pope in UAE: Oppose war with sweet prayer; Abu Dhabi Declaration signed, UAE.

    Mosques have been mushrooming in Western Europe and increasingly so in North America and Australia, whereas the Christian churches are empty, sold or converted into all kinds of facilities if not torn down. The fact that descendants of Christians do not care about the temples of their ancestors does not mean that believing Muslims ought to do the same. Muslims want their temples as places of worship. Europeans have discos in theirs.

  • The Social Justice Cult Really Hates Parler – Here's Why…
    The Social Justice Cult Really Hates Parler – Here’s Why…

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    I have never been a fan of social media platforms, primarily because I realize most of them are operated by leftists and globalists with an antagonistic agenda. The idea of spending all the time and resources needed to build a following on these websites only to then have that work used against you as leverage to silence your viewpoints is not appealing.

    The more effort you put into sites like Twitter, the more dependent you become on it to get your message out, and the more dependent you become the more power the people at at these companies hold over you.

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    Just ask any of the numerous conservative personalities that have been banned from Twitter over the past couple of years because of their political positions. Or ask the people who were banned from YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, etc. as part of a massive purge of accounts this past month, the vast majority of them considered conservative or moderates. Of course, these companies usually don’t admit outright that they are biased against conservative and moderate viewpoints; instead, they accuse accounts of spreading “hate speech”, violating community guidelines or violating “copyright rules”.

    The claim by Twitter that they have no political bias is typical leftist misdirection. Banning people for copyright or for “hate speech” is not necessarily politically motivated, right? However, as analysts have shown in the past, conservatives are somehow FOUR TIMES more likely to be accused of “neutral” policy violations than leftists on Twitter.  As for hate speech, everything conservative is now considered a form of hate speech.  Everything moderate is considered hate speech.  Everything that does not conform to the social justice religion is considered hate speech.  And if it’s not considered hate speech today, it will be considered hate speech tomorrow.

    It’s interesting that SJWs on social media can froth at the mouth with anti-white rabies whenever they please and consequences rarely befall them, yet conservatives can relate nothing more than facts and figures and are summarily booted for “racism”.

    No bias?  Yeah, right…

    YouTube banned thousands of accounts over the past two weeks because of “supremacist ideas and conspiracy theories”, calling the people behind them “harmful users”.

    Twitch organized a “Safety Advisory Council” made up primarily of social justice leftists (including a power hungry lunatic that thinks he’s a female deer) to “inform and guide decisions” specifically on protecting the safety of “marginalized” users.

    Look, I understand the concepts behind Alinsky Tactics and the reality that leftists as a rule deny everything they are doing no matter how obvious it is. They’ll even claim their own groups (like Antifa) don’t exist whenever they get caught in a compromising position. But there comes a point when the gaslighting just isn’t going to work anymore. We all know that social media platforms HATE anyone that opposes the social justice narrative; the only reason they haven’t kicked all conservatives off their platforms yet is because there is something else they hate even more – the prospect that conservatives and moderates might retaliate en masse by organizing on their own competing platforms.

    Enter Parler…

    I have been arguing for years that alternative analysts and anyone not on the political left should be building their own social media. If you are dependent on controlled systems, then you can be controlled. It’s really that simple. Whenever someone puts in the work to establish an alternative system, it behooves us to support it and at least give it a chance.

    There have been some attempts to make this happen, but in every case the attacks from the mainstream media and leftists have been relentless.  What I want to explore here is why?  Why do the lefties care so much if we leave them to their little bubble world and start our own thing?

    Parler in particular has been under endless attack the past few weeks from SJWs attempting to troll and disrupt the site, as well as disjointed criticism from the MSM. 

    Perhaps part of the reason is that Parler has been gaining momentum; with 500,000 new people joining in a matter of days.  We have to consider the possibility that if Parler wasn’t a threat to the social justice cult, they would not be attacking it so consistently.

    The main criticism of Parler by the left goes a little something like this:

    Parler claims it’s a free speech site but it censors people just like Twitter, so why leave Twitter at all?”

    I love this argument because it really showcases the dishonest sophistry of leftists.

    • First, leftists do not care about free speech and haven’t cared for at least a decade. They only care about controlling the narrative. How often do you see leftists attacking Twitter or YouTube for censorship of conservatives? They won’t do that, because they like it and they know the odds are slim that those platforms will ever come after them.

    • Second, when Parler says it’s a “free speech platform” I think it’s obvious that they are referring to political speech specifically. Leftists OPENLY ADMIT to trolling Parler in order to disrupt and sabotage its progress, including posting pornography and other childish tactics in order to force Parler to ban them so that they can then say “Look! Parler lied about free speech…”

    The left defends censorship by companies like Twitter, Facebook and Google because they are “private corporations” and websites are private property (imagine that, commies defending private property rights). I actually agree with that basic premise, but there are some problems with their arguments. Parler is indeed a private company and is perfectly within its rights to ban trolls that are attempting to disrupt discussion and drive people off the platform.  But, there is a big difference between sites like Parler and the major media platforms.

    Most major tech conglomerates, like Google and Facebook, receive billions of dollars in state and federal government subsidies and taxpayer dollars. As far as I can tell from my research Parler does not.  Twitter even received an extensive tax break for eight years worth over $70 million for being based in San Francisco as part of a program called “the Twitter tax break”.  In return for giving welfare and special treatment to silicone valley, Californians in SF now enjoy a historic bubble in real estate and rental prices, along with a spike in poverty and homelessness as well endless traffic.  Many of the people that work at these companies can’t even afford to live in the same city as them.

    Major social media platforms that accept government funds are receiving an unfair advantage over other competing companies and should therefore be held accountable as public services, not private businesses. If a corporation like Google wants to give up taxpayer cash and pay full price for all that bandwidth it uses, then sure, they should be allowed to censor whoever they want. But until then, these companies are subject to oversight, just as any corporate monopoly would be.

    The fact that Parler is encouraging political free speech is what matters here. And so far the only leftists being kicked off the site are those that deliberately go there to try to burn it down. Is it perfect? No, nothing is. But Twitter and others have a proven prejudice against conservative voices and even liberal voices that go against the accepted script. Why stay on Twitter when there are other options that are more free?

    I suspect SJWs despise Parler because it represents a focal point for conservative organization, and they think they own the organizational wheelhouse.

    Leftists, being collectivist in nature, are only adept at one thing – mobilizing bodies through lies and manipulation. This is where they have a distinct advantage over conservatives. The issue is that leftists are easy to mobilize because they have a drone mentality. They tend to follow their gatekeepers blindly. Conservatives tend to be more independent and often question the motives behind any given movement, and this causes internal disagreements on mobilization. Our liberty mindedness is our strength as well as our weakness, and the political left knows it.

    By congregating on a platform that is not relentlessly hostile to us, we are given a free hand to discuss options and organize without being attacked by an engineered mob in the process.

    When I see the vitriol from leftists over Parler, I am also reminded once again that communists don’t see people as “allies”, they see people as property. They want to get rid of conservatives from their platforms but also don’t want conservatives to leave and build their own platforms. I often think of the Chinese invasion of Tibet when pondering this mentality. The CCP’s strategy was one of ethnic cleansing; building railways to Tibet to import Chinese people and run out the indigenous Tibetans. But, when Tibetans sought to leave the country on foot to go to Nepal, the Chinese government set up snipers in the mountains to kill them as they tried to escape.

    This is the communist philosophy – You are not allowed to walk away. You are not allowed to stay as you are. Your only choice is to be reeducated. Your only option is to conform.

    One criticism that I’ve seen on the conservative side is that by moving to Parler we are “walling ourselves off” from public discourse and will not have any sway going into election time. This is an idiotic notion.

    There is no rule that says you can’t use BOTH Parler and Twitter to spread your message. If you really think elections still matter, then by all means jump on as many platforms as you can. Just understand that the purge on sites like Twitter and YouTube is going to get much worse as 2020 comes to a close. Count on it.

    Beyond that, if you believe that the lines are not already deeply drawn on the political divide in the US then you are kidding yourself. Most people have made up their minds as to which side they are on. The only ambiguity is perhaps that many people don’t yet realize how bad the situation could get. Staying on leftist platforms to “fight the good fight” is, in my view, a waste of time. Now is the time to build community so that we are ready for the political and social storm that is ready to make landfall, I have no interest in trying to win raving leftists to my side.

    I’m promoting Parler in this article because it’s the first major attempt I’ve seen to grow a conservative friendly social media outlet. They don’t pay me, I don’t know the people that run the company, and I don’t have any stake in Parler’s success or failure. I have joined the site, and anyone who wants to follow me there can do so by searching brandon@altmarket. My hope is that the site will become an internet safe haven for conservatives during these troubled times. I feel it can be used as a tool for us to join forces and prepare. Conservative ideals and principles of limited government, civil liberties, free markets and individualism must endure for the sake of future generations. We have to start building our citadels, and Parler could be a good place to start.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  • Ex-Google Tech Lead: "Why Diversity Policy Is Toxic"
    Ex-Google Tech Lead: “Why Diversity Policy Is Toxic”

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 23:10

    We’re told that institutional ‘bias reduction’ training and ‘diversity’ hiring policies are meant to create an inclusive environment which values and respects minorities.

    Certainly, as 21st Century Wire notes, Silicon Valley believes it is leading the world in advancing such values.

    Upon closer inspection, the opposite seems to be the case.

    Diversity training and hiring practices do not extinguish prejudice – they actually promote it.

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    Ex-Google and Facebook employee, Patrick Shyu, explains why ‘diversity’ policy creates more problems than solutions.

    Watch:

  • Astronomers Discover Four Never-Before-Seen Circular Radio Objects In Deep Space
    Astronomers Discover Four Never-Before-Seen Circular Radio Objects In Deep Space

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 22:50

    Authored by Jake Anderson via TheMindUnleashed.com,

    As much as astronomy has revealed to us about the universe, there is still much we don’t know and anomalous discoveries routinely remind scientists of this. The newest discovery could be a totally brand-new type of astronomical object that is fascinating and a bit spooky.

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    Astronomers have discovered four rings, called odd radio circles,” or ORCs, that so far have defied explanation or description. We don’t know how big the objects are, how far away they are, or how they formed-all we know is that they are only visible at radio wavelengths, where they are very bright at the edges. The ORCs are totally invisible when viewed with the visible, infrared, and X-ray wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum.

    The paper describing this phenomenon, which was submitted for publication to the journal Nature Astronomy, offers explanations for ORCs but also methodically rules them out. So far, supernovas, star-forming galaxies, planetary nebulas, and gravitational lensing have all been excluded as possible explanations.

    Two of the ORCs appear to contain central galaxies that can be seen at visible wavelengths; scientists speculate those rings could be connected to some kind of local galactic phenomena. The other two ORCs share close physical proximity and so could be interconnected in some way.

    Astronomer Kristine Spekkens at the Royal Military College of Canada and Queen’s University says,

    “[The objects] may well point to a new phenomenon that we haven’t really probed yet. It may also be that these are an extension of a previously known class of objects that we haven’t been able to explore.”

    Other astronomers have speculated the ring-shaped islands in deep space could be the result of shockwaves or radio galaxies.

    Astronomers discovered the ORCs while working on another project, the Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU), which is a map of radio frequencies in space. The EMU pilot survey employs the Australian Square Kilometer Array Pathfinder, or ASKAP, a radio telescope network of 36 dish antennas which are collectively generating a wide-angle view of the night sky and which scientists expect will identify 70 million new radio objects.

    “This is a really nice indication of the shape of things to come in radio astronomy in the next couple of years,” Spekkens added. “History shows us that when we open up a new [avenue of looking at] space to explore … we always find new and exciting things.”

    The discovery comes right at a time when astronomers are still struggling to understand more about another space radio anomaly, the Fast Radio Bursts, or FRBs, that spew incomprehensible amounts of energy in concentrated beams across the universe. While there are many outlandish speculations–including often specious murmurs of advanced extraterrestrial life–anytime scientists discover something in space that defies explanation, we will have to wait substantially longer to learn what both ORCs and FRBs really are.

  • DoJ Busts Texas Man Using Million Dollar PPP Loan To Trade Crypto 
    DoJ Busts Texas Man Using Million Dollar PPP Loan To Trade Crypto 

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 22:30

    The Government Accountability Office (GAO) warned in June there was a “significant risk” of fraud for Paycheck Protection Program loans. 

    GAO said, which oversees spending for the CARES Act, “a number of loans approved, the speed with which they were processed, and the limited safeguards, there is a significant risk that some fraudulent or inflated applications were approved.” 

    The GAO said the Small Business Administration (SBA) had safeguards to deter fraudulent loans, but as we find out in mid-July, they weren’t good enough. 

    Fortune reports a Texas man received almost $1 million in PPP loans to support 51 employees at his “Texas Barbecue” company to payout salaries during months of lockdowns.

    The only problem, Joshua Argires, who received $956,250, never had a BBQ company nor any employees, but received the money and deposited in Coinbase to trade cryptocurrency. 

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    On Tuesday, Argires was charged with wire fraud, bank fraud, and engaging in the unlawful monetary transactions by the Department of Justice (DoJ).

    The DoJ didn’t specify how they detected the fraud but suggest something was a miss when Argires noted on PPP forms he would pay 51 of his fictitious employees $90,000 per month.

    “Such a high average salary for a barbecue operation raises further suspicion,” the DoJ’s complaint said. 

    Argires was involved in another PPP scam, that was with a fictitious business called Houston Landscaping. The DoJ said he was paid out $160,657 in PPP funds. 

    There was no mention of what cryptocurrencies the Texas man bought or how frequently he was trading. 

    During the PPP disbursements period, we outlined how some Americans who received Trump stimulus checks were taking the money and using it for “securities trades.” 

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    The rise of daytraders, as Goldman strategists have recently pointed could explain the surge in small trades over the last several months. It seems like President Trump’s CARES Act partially funded the boom in day trading during the pandemic. With Nasdaq at new highs, well, mission accomplished Mr. President. 

  • Trump Admin Exempts European, But Not Chinese, Students From Coronavirus Travel Restrictions
    Trump Admin Exempts European, But Not Chinese, Students From Coronavirus Travel Restrictions

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 22:16

    Following in the foosteps of a report from earlier thisweek, that the White House would rescind its decision to deny student visas to students who won’t be studying on campus full time this fall, Reuters reports that foreign students coming from Europe will be exempt from a travel ban the United States imposed because of the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. State Department told congressional offices on Thursday. The State Department also told lawmakers that it would offer exemptions for some au pairs and family members of visa holders in the United States, according to a memo sent to lawmakers and seen by Reuters.

    The decision is part of the administration’s effort to gradually reopen international travel following months of sweeping restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic. In March, President Trump banned travelers from most European countries as COVID-19 cases soared in the region before the disease took hold in the United States.

    Meanwhile, even though the European Union began to allow non-essential travel from a limited number of countries last month, travelers from the United States remain banned due to the recent spike in coronavirus cases.

    The U.S. decision to allow European students comes days after the Trump administration agreed to drop a policy that would have forced tens of thousands of international students to leave the United States if their classes went entirely online; the reversal came amid legal challenges by major universities and pressure from business and tech companies.

    China, Brazil and Iran face similar travel bans, but students from those nations were not included in the U.S. exemptions.  Students in European countries who already have visas to study in the United States are exempt from the ban, according to the memo.

    The State Department also said spouses and children of certain foreign workers coming to the United States could qualify for exemptions, including the spouses of skilled workers with H-1B visas.

  • The Quiet Return Of Feudalism
    The Quiet Return Of Feudalism

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 22:10

    Authored by Jorge Gonzalez-Gallarza via TheAmericanConservative.com,

    Few policy items have more ominously heralded the ongoing realignment of our politics than Universal Basic Income. That its proponents and detractors can’t seem to agree on what UBI is intended for in the first place is merely a measure of that omen. 

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    Take Spain. The country’s far-left government was an early fan of the policy, and when it leaped on the unemployment caused by lockdowns to implement a version of it, the handouts were popularly mocked as la paguita—Spanish for pocket money. The derisive analogy was swiftly censured as xenophobic—the potential pull effect for illegal migrants deemed a red herring—or more creatively still, as aporophobic, a made-in-Spain woke neologism for aversion towards the poor. Yet it was fresh college graduates, not illegal aliens nor the destitute, that users of la paguita fretted UBI would put on the dole. UBI-skeptics fear this more than any potential loopholes for migrants or layabouts: namely, further untethering the over-credentialed young from the demands of the labor market, directing them instead towards “more creative pursuits” of dubious societal interest while turning the self-sufficient lower-middle classes into their unconsenting patrons.

    The dissonance over who exactly UBI is meant to assist is extremely revealing. The policy was initially designed in Silicon Valley to make automation painless, but liberals on both sides of the Atlantic have hailed the insurance it provides against labor market disruptions. The reckoning with the need for a larger safety net is actually widespread, but the unalloyed welfare that UBI would afford entitled millennials remains a no-go across much of the right. By embracing UBI, the left seems to have made peace with our tech-induced drift away from self-sufficiency and towards generalized dependence. But creating a dependent class out of the supposedly “best and brightest” is still deemed profoundly perverse on the right.

    This realignment around work and welfare is but one instance of what Joel Kotkin describes in his latest book as The Coming of Neo-Feudalism, the surreptitious supplanting of liberal capitalism—a blend of economic opportunity, pluralism and dispersed political power—with a new regime dominated by tech oligarchs, enabled by their legitimizers in the so-called “progressive clerisy,” and so far acquiesced to by most everyone else. The proposition that a class of tech overlords is infiltrating liberal institutions will sound far-fetched to most of Kotkin’s readers, but that’s only because our connotations of “feudalism” suffer from recency bias. This f-word often calls to mind pre-revolutionary France, where a monarchic nobility and a conservative priesthood united to preserve their privileges at swords’ point until 1789.

    That late form of feudalism is displayed in Kotkin’s choice of cover—an engraving of a nobleman and a priest riding a peasant’s back printed two months before the storming of the Bastille. But what the book warns about is feudalism at an embryonic stage, one where the interests of nobility and clerisy may not jibe all the time, and where the third estate’s submission is still unknowing. Similarly, it took centuries after Rome fell for medieval feudalism to fully take shape, with the Church emerging first as a check on kings’ earthly power before becoming their geopolitical ally, and the servants toiling in the rural estates of the post-Roman nobility barely conscious of their evolving towards serfdom. Then as now, Kotkin argues our feudalization is slow but steady, with ever more power concentrating among fewer hands. Kotkin is better known as an urbanist than as a historian, which is precisely how he garners the historical savvy and prescience to discern the trend stealthily unfolding—for unlike in the early Middle Ages, cities and not rural areas are the microcosm of the neo-feudal order.

    Big tech CEOs and the “progressive intelligentsia” form an unlikely coalition, corporate power being a classic progressive gripe. So what about today’s tech overlords makes them more palatable than the bankers and utility oligopolists they’ve replaced? Hipness and woke capitalism surely play a part, but their primary appeal to the wider society is in Kotkin’s view technical, grounded in the growing premium our economy places in technological skill. More than a technocracy, this is a technocratic ratchet—the techies hold the keys to an economy they’ve ushered in and keep making more complex. Progressive opinion-makers have largely acquiesced to the concentration of productive know-how in ever fewer hands, even as the less affluent are shut out of the pathways towards acquiring it. Worse still, the societal benefits from technological innovation reaped by everyone else keep diminishing—where innovation was once concerned with productivity, transport or housing, its link with improved living standards has all but broken under society’s hype over social media and artificial intelligence.

    Atop the neo-feudal order sit these two powerful blocks, and the economic disruption their alliance portends is correspondingly far-reaching, not limited to a single set of policy wins for tech companies. Even if their tax evasion or greedy data collection practices are reined in with transnational digital taxes and ambitious privacy rules, for big tech these will amount to little more than inches on the margin, mere bumps on the road towards neo-feudalism. To work out the contours of the new economic order, Kotkin proposes instead to size up the larger tenets of liberal capitalism undergoing erosion. This starts with property, the ladder through which a majority could once reach middle-class prosperity but that is being pulled up before our very eyes.

    Under feudalism, serfdom was the norm—toiling on the land of someone else who robbed you was the only path to subsist. Similarly, as the clustering effects of today’s knowledge economy keep driving capital and labor towards already cramped cities, property has concentrated in ever fewer hands, with home renters left similarly property-less. Cities used to be hotbeds of opportunity, today they are segregated dystopias. Where strivers could once take jobs that afforded spacey homes, amenities and savings, today the squeezed middle is driven out of cities altogether by skyrocketing housing, transport and childcare costs. Where suburbia once stood to pick up the pieces of our urban dysfunctions, today that last redoubt of the property-owning middle is reaching full capacity in turn, with the comfortable lifestyle it affords shunned by the environmentalist clerisy.

    This crisis of property is behind the mantra that “today’s young are the first generation to face dimmer prospects than their parents,” borne out in endless surveys. A married couple of first-generation college graduates today struggles to buy a home even at the age their non-college educated parents did, effectively delaying the age at which the upward mobility both generations worked so hard to chase can take its effect. Even as it remains the only real launchpad to wealth accrual, homeownership is increasingly the monopoly of those lucky to inherit it, which further tilts a playing field at birth already more uneven than ever. And all this concerns only what Kotkin calls the modern “yeomanry” of financially insecure but credentialed professionals. Even grimmer are the prospects of the neo-feudal serfdom, that netherworld of low-skilled jobs in the service precariat. Devoid of technical skills, these neo-serfs live paycheck to paycheck in what former Labor Secretary Robert Reich once called the “share-the-scraps-economy”—a wordplay on the “sharing economy”—with not a whiff of any real economic opportunity.

    But just like medieval serfs felt bound to the feudal system through the Christian hope of redemption, so is our neo-feudal order held together, as much as by economic relationships, by the cultural values evangelized from the clerisy downwards. Yesteryear’s societal ethos was one of dynamism, creative destruction and widespread opportunity for all, which, when sincerely embraced by those at the top, gave the entire system a buttress of legitimacy. For the managerial class holding the reins, living out these values and leading by example reinforced their position atop the system—creating jobs meant supporting middle-class livelihoods, reneging from corporate welfare and accepting the diktats of antitrust enforcement meant playing by the rules.

    The values underpinning today’s neo-feudalism, rather than allowing for elites to be renewed through competition and merit, serve to entrench the ones we’re stuck with. Pluralism in online discourse is on the way out and any talk of breaking up the tech giants is defamed as antitrust heresy, effectively enshrining their natural monopoly over the digital space. As for philanthropy, today’s tech overlords truly see their lot as the kindest hearted in society, but their foundations no longer seek to align status with merit but to refashion our political economy entirely by normalizing dependence. UBI is to philanthropy what giving away fish is to fishing education. 

    Whenever economic opportunity is invoked by big tech’s allies in the clerisy, it is most often in the discourse of identity politics, which derives policy prescriptions that fail to create more of it, resorting instead to shoving ethnic minorities amidst the ranks of the technocracy. Instead of expanding access to high-quality education, vocational training or urban property, the siren song of identititarianism calls for numerical quotas and affirmative action. If anything, economic opportunity stands to lose even more ground if the shibboleths promoted from atop are pursued à la lettre, to the extent they pose further penalties on the less fortunate, such as through environmentalism or multiculturalism. And this is where policies such as UBI come back into the picture—their aim is to make the lack of economic opportunity less painful and politically costly, not to reverse our direction of travel towards neo-feudalism. Evangelized with the brimstone of religion, these values are ushering in a new regime of what Kotkin calls “oligarchic socialism,” with productive work increasingly the province of a fortunate few, while everyone is left to battle out for the scraps but numbed with progressive piety.

    The alarm Kotkin sounds is all the more courageous and credible coming from an old-school progressive like him, and shows that the left’s realignment around the interests of tech oligarchs and the gospel of wokeism won’t go without internal pushback. Kotkin has even earned an audience on the right—the book is published by Encounter. If his Warning to the Global Middle Class is to be heard widely, it will need all the support it can get from conservatives, whom are undergoing a realignment of the kind Kotkin advocates for his own side. Which calls to mind the ominous words of the abbé Sieyès in 1789—“what is the Third Estate? Everything. What has it been in the current political order? Nothing. What does it desire to be? Something!”

    *  *  *

    The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class, by Joel Kotkin, (New York: Encounter Books, 2020), 224 pages.

  • "We'll Have To Suck It Up" – America's Nut-Glut Sends Prices Plunging
    “We’ll Have To Suck It Up” – America’s Nut-Glut Sends Prices Plunging

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 21:50

    America has a nut problem; oversupplied conditions with plunging demand thanks to President Trump’s trade war and the virus pandemic could prove disastrous for nut farmers this year who produce a majority of the world’s almonds, walnuts, and pecans.

    Bloomberg describes a world in which an economic boom led farmers to increasingly plant more and more saplings. Several years later, these trees are now becoming nut-bearing ones, will soon increase supply at a time when the trade war has crushed demand for US agriculture products, and the virus pandemic has crashed the global economy. 

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    h/t Bloomberg

    Bill Carriere, a seasoned nut farmer in California, said saplings were planted about five years ago are now becoming nut-bearing ones, could produce an unusually high crop yield this year.

    “It’s been five years since the last trees were planted, and now that production is hitting, and the young trees are coming on board,” said Carriere. “It’s going to be a big crop, and that will be true for the next few years.”

    A bumper crop of nuts is one thing, but now the nut industry, comprising of almonds, walnuts and pecan farmers, has been at the mercy of the president’s trade war, resulting in plunging demand for American nuts. 

    “We’re nervous, especially for next year, with where prices are,” said Carriere, who is also on the California Walnut Board and California Walnut Commission. “They could get below the cost of production.”

    America’s nut boom is becoming more and more like a nut bust.  The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest crop report projects almond yields will jump 20% this year to a record 3 billion bounds. California produces about 80% of global almonds – any decline or collapse in price will undoubtedly be felt in local communities in the West Coast state.

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    h/t Bloomberg 

    China, and the rest of Asia, have been regularly importing US nuts over the years, but that has decreased since the trade war began, forcing Beijing to slap America’s nuts with tariffs. 

    USDA estimates US almond exports will reach a three year low in 2020 – suggesting supply concerns will pressure spot prices. 

    In addition to declining trade flows between the US and China – the coronavirus pandemic has plunged world trade into a depression. 

    Carriere expects more saplings will be planted on his California farm through 2022. He added:

    “Once the new trees are in, you’re in for 40 to 50 years,” he said. “We’ll have to suck it up and grit our teeth and get through it.”

    President Trump’s failure to sign a legitimate trade deal with China, as we now know, the phase one deal was nothing more than hype to boost the president’s election odds as Beijing had zero intention on fulfilling trade purchase commitments (in dollar amount). Nevertheless, the president is now saying the phase two trade deal is “unlikely.”

    The Trump administration might to ready the next bailout to farmers, this time with maximum concentration on nut growers.

  • As The Economy Reopened, This Is Where Job Applications Surged
    As The Economy Reopened, This Is Where Job Applications Surged

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 21:30

    Via Priceonomics,

    The coronavirus outbreak and resulting shelter-in-place orders have created enormous changes in the hourly job market. Some industries, like hospitality, have seen unprecedented job losses. Other industries, like warehouse and logistics, have actually seen job growth as the delivery of goods becomes essential.

    In this article, we’ll look at job applications. Are people looking for work currently or still shying away from employment due to the virus?

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    We found that in March and April, job applications for hourly jobs plummeted compared to February. However, this May, we’ve seen a very strong rebound. A lot of this rebound in May has been due to restaurants and healthcare facilities reopening. Nevertheless, most industries are seeing job applications below pre-pandemic levels.

    While almost all metropolitan statistical areas have seen an increase in job applications, Miami, Las Vegas and Baltimore have seen the largest surge in applications this May.

    ***

    First let’s examine the overall national trends in job applications. What happened to the number of applications on Snagajob since before the pandemic through the end of May? The chart below shows the total applications, indexed to 100 in February:

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    In March and April we saw a steep decline in job applications, with job applications down 42% from their pre-pandemic level. However, this May has seen a sudden rebound in job applications as states have lifted stay-at-home restrictions. Applications are still well below pre-pandemic levels.

    Is this dynamic of falling (and then rising) job applications because of fewer job postings available or because skittish individuals are less likely to apply for jobs during the pandemic? The answer is a little bit of both. The chart below shows the number of job applications per available position on Snagajob:

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    As the pandemic began, the number of applications per position fell in March and stayed similarly low in April. However by May, the number of applications per position available swung back to pre-pandemic levels.

    While people are applying for jobs again at pre-pandemic levels, total applications are still down because the number of job postings are still less than in February:

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    Compared to February, hourly job postings are down 19%. Companies are hiring more in May than in April, but still at a much lower level than in February. On the national level, it appears as though both employers and potential employees are re-entering the labor market in May.

    Which industries are seeing this great rebound in job postings this May? The chart below shows categories experiencing the largest (and smallest) surge in applicants last month:

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    By a considerable margin, sit-down restaurants have seen the largest surge in applications in May compared to April. Because of the COVID-19 lockdown, most restaurants across the country were closed for sit-down dining in April. As these restaurants have reopened, job applications have returned. Grocery stores continue to attract applications, as they have continued hiring throughout the pandemic. Cleaning services have also rebounded during reopening, as have healthcare job applications as places like dentist offices are now allowed to operate.

    However, most of these categories are receiving fewer applications in May than they were prior to the pandemic beginning in February:

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    Compared to prior to the pandemic, only the categories of Logistics/Warehouse have seen strong applications growth. On the other hand, Hospitality and Entertainment applications are down over 80% from February.

    As economies have reopened across the United States, we have seen a growth in job applications. The chart below shows the growth in job postings in the top 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) on Snagajob in May compared to April.

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    This prior month, the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of Miami, Las Vegas and Baltimore have seen the highest surge in job applications, followed by Houston and Orlando. Boston and Detroit have seen the smallest surge in job applicants, though both cities still received 13% more job applications than the prior month.

    However, almost all geographies are seeing fewer hourly job applications than before the pandemic in February:

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    Just 13 of the top 50 largest metro areas on Snagajob are receiving more applications than prior to the pandemic’s start in February. Each of the top 6 locations are in the South, with Charleston and Greenville, South Carolina leading the way. Of all the metros we examined, Detroit has had the largest dropoff in applications with 46% fewer job applications in May compared to February.

    ***

    As the economy has reopened, job applications have flooded back this May. The average job posting on our site in May got about as many applications as one would have in February. However, employer job postings still haven’t fully bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. Nevertheless, for some job categories like restaurants, job applications are booming.

  • Portland 'Under Siege By Anarchists' As City Officials Twiddle Thumbs, Says DHS Chief
    Portland ‘Under Siege By Anarchists’ As City Officials Twiddle Thumbs, Says DHS Chief

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 21:10

    Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf condemned “rampant, long-lasting violence” in Portland, Oregon on Thursday, after the city “has been under siege for 47 straight days by a violent mob while local political leaders refuse to restore order to protect their city,” he said in a Thursday morning statement. 

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    Wolf traveled to Portland to survey the city after members of Antifa established the “Chinook Land Autonomous Territory” outside of the Portland federal courthouse earlier in the week.

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    “A federal courthouse is a symbol of justice – to attack it is to attack America,” Wolf said, referring to the protesters as “anarchists.”

    Local businesses have reported $23 million in losses due to looting and rioting that have gripped its downtown area, and rioters were seen lighting mattresses on fire and setting off fireworks in the streets. Protesters have also set up tents in the park near the federal courthouse and have barricaded streets to create their own autonomous zone, likened to the since-disbanded Capitol Hill Organized Protest in Seattle.

    Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security deployed more than a half-dozen law enforcement agencies and departments, with officers from the U.S. Marshals, the Federal Protective Service and U.S. Customs and Border Protection rotating protection services throughout the city in a bid to quell the violence and protect federal property — a move opposed by local politicians. –Fox News

    “Instead of addressing violent criminals in their communities, local and state leaders are instead focusing on placing blame on law enforcement and requesting fewer officers in their community. This failed response has only emboldened the violent mob as it escalates violence day after day,” the statement continues.

    According to journalist Andy Ngo, “One of the biggest scandals of the last 50 days is how Portland media & politicians describe rioters as peaceful while declaring police violent agitators. This lie keeps riots going.”

    Wolf provided a list of offenses committed by “Violent anarchists” in Portland going back to late May:

    05/29/2020

    • Violent anarchists broke a front window at the Hatfield Courthouse.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied the Hatfield Courthouse.
    • Overall, the cost of damages on federal property done by the violent mob this first night was estimated at $5,000.

    05/30/2020

    • Violent anarchists graffitied the BPA Building.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied the Hatfield Courthouse.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied the Edith Green-Wenell Wyatt Building.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied the Terry Schrunk Plaza.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied the 911 Federal Building.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied the Pioneer Courthouse.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied the Gus J. Solomon Courthouse.

    06/01/2020

    • Violent anarchists graffitied the Hatfield Courthouse.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied Terry Schrunk Plaza.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied The Pioneer Courthouse.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied The Gus J Solomon Courthouse.

    06/02/2020

    • Violent anarchists graffitied the U.S. Custom House.

    06/06/2020

    • Violent anarchists destroyed fencing surrounding federal property.

    06/07/2020

    • Violent anarchists damaged and breached the fence around the Hatfield Courthouse.
    • Portland Police were forced to deploy crowd control spray to disperse a crowd that was throwing animal seed at officers.

    06/08/2020

    • Violent anarchists broke a window at the Hatfield Courthouse while pelting the building with objects.
    • Violent anarchists cut a hole in the fence surrounding Hatfield Courthouse.

    06/10/2020

    • Violent anarchists removed the entire fence around Hatfield Courthouse and graffitied its front columns.
    • Violent anarchists attempted to remove wooden barriers from a window on the Hatfield Courthouse.

    06/11/2020

    • Violent anarchists dismantled a section of the fence protecting the Edith Green-Wenell Wyatt Federal Building.

    06/13/2020

    • Violent anarchists destroyed the card reader at the Hatfield Courthouse by ripping it off its mount.
    • Violent anarchists destroyed the fence at the Hatfield Courthouse.
    • Violent anarchists threw metal pipes at the Hatfield Courthouse, causing Portland Police to issue a disbursal warning for unlawful assembly.

    06/17/2020

    • Violent anarchists graffitied the Hatfield Courthouse.

    06/20/2020

    • Among a group of over 400 protesters marching in front of the Pioneer Courthouse, violent anarchists attempted to cause eye damage to officers with commercial grade lasers.
    • Violent anarchists graffitied the Gus J. Solomon Courthouse.

    06/25/2020

    • Violent anarchists vandalized an FPS camera at the Hatfield Courthouse.
    • Violent anarchists breached the fence of the Justice Center, adjacent to the courthouse.

    06/30/2020

    • Violent anarchists ripped down plywood covering the windows at the Edith Green-Wenell Wyatt Building, before breaking the windows.

    7/01/2020

    • Violent anarchists graffitied new plywood covering the windows at the Hatfield Courthouse and ripped down plywood on the other side of the building.
    • A group of over 200 violent anarchists blocked access to the building and proceeded to launch aerial fireworks at federal property.

    07/02/2020

    • Violent anarchists broke a front window to the Hatfield Courthouse and attempted to enter the building.
    • Violent anarchists refused orders to vacate the Hatfield Courthouse area, and instead launched fireworks and threw objects at officers, while attempting to cause eye damage with lasers. One explosive firework was shot into the courthouse.
    • FPS law enforcement officers were forced to utilized crowd control measures for safety.

    07/03/2020

    • After ongoing riots around the Hatfield Courthouse, crowds were dispersed only to make a return later into the night.
    • Violent Anarchists broke the front window of the Hatfield U.S. Courthouse and shot fireworks into the building.
    • Violent anarchists firebombed the building. Federal law enforcement extinguished the fire.

    07/04/2020

    • Around 1,000 violent anarchists spray painted, threw rocks, and shot fireworks (including mortar style fireworks) at the Hatfield Courthouse. They also destroyed a security camera at the facility.
      • A CBP team supporting FPS at the courthouse arrested suspects from the graffiti and camera vandalism incidents.
      • The mob continued to throw rocks and paint-filled balloons, while attempting to breach the doors.
      • Teams were forced to utilize crowd control measures for safety.
    • Multiple individuals were seen carrying rifles, including the driver of a vehicle who attempted to strike a Portland Police Bureau officer with his car in front of the Hatfield Courthouse.

    07/05/2020

    • A hostile crowd of about 250 violent anarchists returned to the vicinity of Hatfield Courthouse to vandalize and attack numerous facilities and police, while failing to comply with dispersal order.
    • Violent anarchists surrounded and blocked law enforcement from the area as extremists proceeded to attack police with thrown projectiles and large mortar style fireworks.
    • Two Portland Police Bureau officers were injured by the crowd (possible concussion). 
    • Portland Police Bureau took five into custody for directing lasers against aircraft.
    • Violent anarchists set fires in front of Hatfield Courthouse and Chapman park.
    • At the entrance of Hatfield Courthouse, Violent Anarchists fired large fireworks and threw other dangerous objects toward the entrance and the personnel protecting it.
    • The mob was pushed completely out of the area of Hatfield Courthouse; FPS made two arrests during push.
    • Portland Police made multiple arrests and found a loaded weapon on one subject.
    • Two more violent anarchists were arrested, and one was found to be carrying what appears to be a pipe bomb.
    • Violent anarchists assaulted construction crews by targeting them with fireworks while they repaired Hatfield Building.
    • A joint team had to be deployed to create buffer between violent anarchists and construction crew to protect construction workers.

    07/06/2020

    • Violent anarchists attempted to cause vision damage to personnel with lasers. Five arrests were made for assaulting law enforcement.

    07/07/2020

    • Violent anarchists held a “Night of Rage,” in which a 400-500-person protest devolved into riots, assaulting law enforcement officers and federal property.
    • Approximately 200 violent anarchists began pursuing law enforcement officers to disrupt enforcement actions, assaulting them with rocks and bottles.
    • Around 150 violent anarchists in front of the Justice Center began attacking personnel with lasers and peppered the area with fireworks.
    • Three violent anarchists were arrested for attacking law enforcement.

    07/08/2020

    • Approximately 200 violent anarchists attacked DHS law enforcement officers while apprehending a subject who was wanted for property damage.
    • One arrest was made after three law enforcement officers were injured.
    • Law enforcement officers’ personal information was publicly exposed, including FPS, ICE, and CBP personnel.
    • Violent anarchists continued to attack officers with lasers. 

    07/09/2020

    • Violent anarchists attacked DHS law enforcement officers while apprehending a subject who was wanted for property damage.
    • A violent anarchist graffitied the Hatfield courthouse.
    • An unidentified subject fired several shots from a gun into the air from the rear seat of a passing white SUV. 

    07/10/2020

    • Crowds of approximately 300 violent anarchists vandalized federal property and cameras with spray paint, blocked roadways, and assaulted law enforcement officers.
    • Three were arrested for Assault on a Federal Officer.
    • Violent anarchists attempted to ambush Portland Police Department PD during their shift change, but a DHS team was deployed and able to prevent any attacks.

    07/11/2020

    • DHS law enforcement officers supported local police to help a violent anarchist who overdosed.
    • Four violent anarchists were arrested, including one who attempted to assault an officer with a hammer.
    • Violent anarchists sieged the barricade of the courthouse and tried to damage it with a large hammer.
    • A law enforcement officer was assaulted with blows from a hammer. Violent anarchists fought officers while they were arresting those responsible.

    07/12/2020

    • Six violent anarchists were detained and cited.
    • A mob of 300 refused to comply with directions not to trespass on federal property.
    • Another mob of 200 individuals armed with sledgehammers, tasers and/or stun guns, gathered in Chapman Park across from the Hatfield Courthouse.
    • Violent anarchists launched fireworks, threw fecal matter and large objects, and pointed lasers at federal law enforcement officers.
    • Violent anarchists deployed a plywood blockade while graffitiing the Edith Green-Wenell Wyatt Federal Building, before firing wrist rockets at the facility.
    • When an arrest team was deployed to apprehend a rioter who encroached on a police barrier and refused to leave, they were assaulted by violent anarchists.
    • A rioter trespassed on the steps of the Hatfield Courthouse and was confronted by federal law enforcement Officers, then swallowed a large amount of narcotics. Law enforcement called medical services after the individual started to convulse.
    • Despite more orders to stay off of federal property and to cease unlawful activity, FPS was forced to push back violent anarchists. The Portland Police Bureau declared the mob an unlawful assembly.

    07/13/2020

    • Violent anarchists released personal information of federal law enforcement officers to the public, publishing names of those in Portland.
    • Violent anarchists continued to assault law enforcement officers with lasers, slingshots and fireworks. Others were armed with sledge hammers, tasers, and stun guns, and dragged flaming debris into the scene.

    07/14/2020

    • Violent anarchists set a container of liquid on fire at the Terry Schrunk Plaza.
    • Violent anarchists jumped a fence and attempted to breach the Edith Green Federal Building.
    • Violent anarchists assaulted federal law enforcement officers with cans and other hard objects while they attempted to unblock the entrance of the Edith Green Federal Building.

    07/15/2020

    • Violent anarchists doxed members of federal law enforcement.
    • Violent anarchists attempted to damage the Hatfield Courthouse by throwing objects at it and spray painting it. Numerous fireworks were also lit.
    • Violent anarchists trespassed on federal property and destroyed a card reader at the Justice Center.

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  • It's The Preppers That Are Laughing Now…
    It’s The Preppers That Are Laughing Now…

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 20:50

    Submitted by Luke Eastwood,

    Since the crash of 2008 much has been made of the fact that the world did not end or the sky fall in on us – unless of course you are one of the people who have been touched by bankrupcy, homelessness, addiction or even suicide as a result of the crash. The truth is that, since the financial collapse, life has not improved, improved very little or even got worse for a huge number of individuals around the world.

    Many political and financial pundits have highlighted the fact that the problems that caused the sub-prime crisis and subsequent bank collapses around the world are  in fact a systemic problem. However, it appears that very little has been done to remedy  the situation.  The basic problem is not complex at all – it is very simple in fact:

    1. All closed systems have limits and the economic and ecological world system  is  nearing the limits of tolerance.

    2. The main beneficiaries of the current system are a tiny minority (often referred to as the 1%), which is in fact growing smaller, further exacerbating imbalance.

    3. No attempt has been made to address a flawed system that is ultimately unsustainable – papering of the crack is all that has occurred.

    If you accept the 3 points above then it is easy to see that we are not in fact headed anywhere better in the short or medium term. If no attempts are made to deal with the distribution of capital, the availability of financially meaningful employment, the facilitation of resources and investment in genuinely productive and beneficial enterprises then circumstances will continue to deteriorate.

    The short to medium term solution to the 2008 crisis was quantitative easing, or stimulus, however many would argue that the stimulus was given to the arse when it needed to be given to the brain of the patient. Stimulus in the wrong place is of no benefit if the system remains unchanged, or if the beneficiaries only gain more from maintaining the status quo, instead of engaging in reform.

    So here we are in 2020, QE or stimulus never ended, although somewhat declining in recent years, it has now been ramped up again to frightening levels. We now have a situation where the broken system of 2008 is still broken but now with a level of leveraging across countries and corporations that is eye-wateringly catastrophic. If this is not a black swan moment in itself, the fact that we have to contend with COVID19, political and social unrest, locust plagues in Africa and Asia, increased threat of war, plus increased protectionism and nationalism should be ringing everyone’s alarm bells.

    There is a significant drag in the system, a time delay or delayed reaction if you will. I personally regard this as being about 6 months lag between disaster A and full comprehension of the impact of disaster A. This is then followed by the repercussions of this new understanding, which is from that point onwards is reflected in financial markets, on main street, employment levels, the media and in every day life.  At this moment we are seeing or are about to see Q2 figures from across the world, which is the beginning of the comprehension of disaster A, and a growing awareness that disasters B, C, D and E are in progress right now.

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    Preppers have long been derided as maniacs who see doom and gloom and impending disaster around every corner. While many of these people and social/financial commentators may have been wrong about the timing, they have been right all along about the systemic weakness and the strong likelihood of an implosion that could gut societies all across the world. It may have been fun to have a good laugh at ‘Johnny no mates’, filling his plastic bins with non-perishable foods and buying gold coins, but now Johnny is not look so stupid any more.

    The full impact of the coming financial devastation is a long way off, what we have seem this year is just the entré, a small taste of what is to come. I would suggest that Q3 and Q4 will yield results of unprecedented disaster that will lead to a mass exodus from financial markets, a collapse of the derivatives market, commercial and domestic property collapse and possibly the insolvency of many large financial institutions and corporations across the world.

    For those who have not prepared at all for the coming economic and social chaos, I would to suggest that right now is a good time to start – as soon as you have finished reading this article! Those with a high level of debt would be wise to pay it off if they have the ability to do so. Those with financial assets likely to be devalued by a stock market slide, derivatives collapse etc would be wise to get out while the getting is good. Those that have property that is expensive, costly to maintain and not generating income would also be wise to sell it while it still retains any quantifiable value.

    In my own case, I have sold my home which had an unsustainable mortgage and cleared that debt. I have made arrangements to settle all other borrowings within the next 12 months. I have relocated to a low population area, living in a very affordable rented home. I have changed job and now work part-time as a government employee in a pensionable job. I also have a supply of non-perishable food that will last 3-6 months, tools and equipment to deal with lack of supply and a shared ‘allotment’ near by, to grow food. I also have a reasonable supply of 1oz silver coins and bars, which should hopefully retain some purchasing value when the hyperinflation eventually hits.

    My own prepping is fairly minor, compared to some, however I feel adequately prepared to ride out the inevitable storms that are coming our way. I would not have revealed these steps in the past, given the general derision of most people towards those preparing for disaster. I would most likely be lumped in with the ‘tin foil hat’ conspiracists for taking steps to avoid destitution, hunger and the disintegration of my personal situation, brought on by events beyond my control. Now that we have finally arrived at the ‘perfect storm’ people like me are not looking like fools any more.

    In truth it is the people with zero vision, foresight and planning who are going to look stupid. It is those who have sleep-walked through the last decade and done nothing to safeguard their own future who will be feeling stupid very soon. However, total disaster is not upon us just yet – it is still in the post. There is still time to sell up, move house, change career, pay off debt. If you have not already analysed your life and its future viability, in the face of unprecedented change, now would be a very good time to start.

    *  *  *

    Luke Eastwood is a horticulturist and writer, living in Ireland. He has formerly worked in the financial industry in UK, journalism, publishing, design, advertsing and marketing. You can read more of his work at lukeeastwood.com

  • "Death Yard" – Where Rental Cars Go To Die 
    “Death Yard” – Where Rental Cars Go To Die 

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 20:30

    Several months ago, we noticed parking lots across the US were quickly filling up with rental cars as the entire car rental industry collapsed. The virus-induced recession crushed the travel and tourism industry, so it would only make sense that indirect industries, like rental cars, would get hammered.

    In May, rental car fleets were being shifted from airports to massive parking lots at sports stadiums from Philipedia to Los Angeles; the pictures below show the magnitude of the collapse: 

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    About 2,200 Enterprise rental cars are parked at the Wells Fargo Center in South Philadelphia

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    Aloha Stadium’s parking lot has become the temporary home to 1,000 to 1,500 rental vehicles on Oahu that have become idle because of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

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    Hundreds of rental cars are being temporarily parked at Dodger Stadium as travel continues to constrict amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    Thanks to mcm-ct.com, who also showed us the commercial real estate bust in South Florida in May, has once again posted stunning pictures of where rental cars now ‘go to die’. 

    MCM might have uncovered the evolution of what happens to rental cars after they’re temporarily parked at sports stadiums or massive parking lots – that is, as he describes – ends up in a “death yard” – as Hertz and other rental car companies will eventually markdown these assets from their respective balance sheets. 

    On Sunday, MCM’s Twitter post said he “drove past” the Palm Beach International Airport on Saturday and uncovered a huge parking lot of “rental cars needing maintenance/out of commission.” 

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    He said, “every car” had mechanical issues “marked on” the window – as they bake in the South Florida sun. He said it would “take years & $$$ to get through these repairs,” as he suggested: “Can you say asset impairment?” 

    From the street, MCM snapped a panoramic view of the parking lot with at least a thousand of these cars left in the sun to die.  

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    h/t MCM

    He shows every window is “marked with mechanical issues.” 

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    h/t MCM

    Here’s another angle of the yard – with a closer look – all of these vehicles are basically brand-new. 

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    h/t MCM

    Another view:

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    h/t MCM 

    And another: 

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    h/t MCM

    MCM said: “Anyway you look at it, its YEARS OF INVENTORY that is sitting baking in the sun…it is a major operation imo just to find the keys for these cars let alone repair and move them – they will be there for a very long time it seems and that means these cars will deteriorate a lot.” 

    Adding that, “DON’T WORRY THE @federalreserve CAN FIX THIS as @neelkashkari is on the job.” 

    And if MCM is right – Hertz and or other rental car companies could be on the cusp of writing down their vehicle fleets as the anticipation of steady cash flows from these assets are now deemed unrecoverable as the whole travel and tourism industry has gone bust and will remain depressed for years. 

  • Georgia Gov Kemp Sues Atlanta Mayor Over "Illegal" Mandatory Mask Order: Live Updates
    Georgia Gov Kemp Sues Atlanta Mayor Over “Illegal” Mandatory Mask Order: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 20:19

    Summary:

    • Brian Kemp sues Keisha Bottoms
    • Texas suffers record COVID-19 deaths
    • Brazil passes 2MN cases
    • Puerto Rico closes bars, beaches
    • Rumor about impending Texas shutdown surfaces
    • Colorado expected to issue statewide mask mandate
    • Russia denies vaccine hacking
    • New restrictions imposed Pennsylvania
    • California deaths climb
    • # of patients on ventilators hits new record
    • New York reports latest numbers
    • Arizona sees another decline in new cases
    • Florida reports 156 deaths, new daily record
    • Global cases top 13.5 mil
    • HK reports 63 new cases for 3rd record in a week
    • US reports 65k+ cases; 2nd highest daily tally
    • Indonesia orders social distancing violators punished
    • Tokyo suffers record jump
    • Victoria reports more than 300 new cases Thursday
    • ICU deaths moving lower around the world
    • Texas reports daily record yesterday

    * * *

    Update (2000ET): As Georgia’s daily cases climb and pressure builds on governors to authorize more restrictions and enforcing social distancing rules, he is instead doing the opposite and has decided to sue Atlanta over Mayor Keisha Bottom’s mandatory mask order.

    In a tweet, Kemp claimed that he was acting on behalf of small business owners and hard-working employees.

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    A week ago when Bottoms became one of the first to independently impose the mandatory mask order, Gov Kemp chimed in to insist that it was unenforceable and that individuals retained the right not to wear them, if they so choose.

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    Kemp issued an order a few days ago “strongly encouraging” Georgians to wear masks and public and follow the social distancing guidance.

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    As lawsuits have been filed in red states, including Texas, by various parties, masks have become a major political flashpoint while Dr. Fauci urges Americans to abandon the polarizing partisanship and simply follow the guidelines.

    He also said some states should reimpose a lockdown order, against the explicit wishes of the president, who fears lockdowns could cost him the election.

    “We’ve got to regroup, call a time out,” Dr. Fauci said live in an interview with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

    In Asia, Japan’s agriculture ministry has decided to suspend bids seeking contractors for its “Go To Eat” campaign aimed at bolstering  struggling restaurants as the number of new cases surges in Tokyo.

    * * *

    Update (1755ET): One day after the Lone Star State posted a record jump in new cases and fatalities, it followed up with another record-breaking death tally of virus-linked fatalities on Thursday. The Texas death toll climbed by 129 to 3,561, eclipsing the jump of 110 from Wednesday.

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    Though Thursday’s 10,291 cases fell short of yesterday’s record by about 500 cases, it marked the third straight day of 10k+ new cases in Texas.
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    While Hispanics make up 40% of infected patients in Texas, young people in their 20s and 30s comprise the largest age groups of patients.

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    Though the fatality data breakdown tell a much different story.

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    As deaths appear to be moving off their lows for the first time since the latest wave began last month, the positivity rate on Thursday came in at 17.8% (overall, the figure is 10.8%).

    Hospitalizations remain near record highs.

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    Meanwhile, rumors are swirling about Gov Abbott potentially moving Texas back into Phase 1 of its reopening, or even a partial – or complete – lockdown.

    In Puerto Rico, the island’s governor just announced plans to close bars and other areas where the virus might spread.

    • PUERTO RICO CLOSING BARS, MOVIE THEATERS, CASINOS, GYMS
    • PUERTO RICO GOVERNOR: BEACHES CLOSED FOR GROUPS, SUNBATHERS

    As the CDC rapidly falls out of favor in the West Wing, the agency said Thursday that it would be extending its “no sail” cruise ship order through September.

    • CDC: CRUISE SHIP NO SAIL ORDER EXTENDED THROUGH SEPT 2020

    And in Brazil, the number of new cases pushed the total passed 2 million.

    • BRAZIL SURPASSES 2 MILLION COVID-19 CASES

    * * *

    Update (1540ET): As we mentioned earlier, Florida has taken the lead for daily COVID-19 cases per capita from Arizona.

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    * * *

    Update (1520ET): Arkansas Gov Asa Hutchinson has just declared that mask-wearing will be made mandatory across the state.

    The announcement was made during Thursday’s briefing.

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    * * *

    Update (1445ET): We’re hearing chatter that Texas Gov Greg Abbott is on the cusp of shutting down Texas following a surge in new cases yesterday and over the past week.

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    Texas Gov Abbott has dismissed these rumors, yet they persist. A couple of days ago, the Texas Tribune reported that hospitals in the state were running low on everything, drugs, PPE, beds, ventilators, and even staff.

    * * *

    Update (1430ET):The Denver Post reports that Colorado Governor Jared Polis is expected to issue a statewide mask mandate Thursday afternoon after facing pressure from several of his fellow Democrats. The Post cited several unidentified sources with knowledge of the governor’s decision-making. Roughly 40 cities and counties had already imposed the mask ban.

    Additionally, PA Gov Tom Wolf declared an “alarming escalation” in virus cases and imposed new rule on Thursday, including shutting down nightclubs and bars while limiting indoor restaurant seating to 25% capacity.

    Meanwhile, a Russian official denied accusations by the UK (along with US & Canada) that the country’s state intelligence agencies are hacking international research centers that are working to develop the vaccine.

    * * *

    Update (1415ET): California COVID-19 cases rise 8,544 (+3.3%), compared with 11,126 previously, recorded 118 deaths Wednesday, well above the 14-day rolling average of 84. The average positivity rate over the last 2 weeks has been 7.2%, which is little changed from yesterday. Thursday’s increased pushed the state’s total to 347,634, within striking distance of passing 350k. The state’s death toll is 7,227. More than 5.75 million tests have been run.

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    Here’s the rundown of cases by county:

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    The number of hospitalized patients declined by 9, after adding 41 the prior before.  The number of patients confined to the ICU declined by 10 (from an increase of 21 from the prior day).

    * * *

    Update (1334ET): Following the discouraging numbers out of Fla. earlier, Miami has just confirmed that the number of patients on ventilators has reached a new record.

    • MIAMI-DADE HAS RECORD 257 COVID-19 PATIENTS ON VENTILATORS
    • MIAMI-DADE COVID-19 ICU PATIENTS AT RECORD 472; PREV. 431

    * * *

    Update (1145ET): New York Gov Andrew Cuomo released today’s COVID-19 update….

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    ….along with a tweet showcasing his state’s generosity toward the people of Houston.

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    Houston is on the cusp of crossing the 70k threshold.

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    Cuomo added that NYC is still headed for ‘Phase 4’ to begin on Monday, though the final decision won’t be made until Friday. He also warned about the risks of travelers from out of state hotspots reigniting the outbreak in his state.

    For comparison, here are the numbers from yesterday.

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    * * *

    Update (1130ET): Arizona reported 3,259 (+2.5%) new cases on Thursday, compared with a 7-day average of 2.8%.

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    Hospitalizations were down 39 (-1.12%) from the prior day to 3,454; officials reported 58 (+2.4%) new deaths, bringing the statewide death toll to 2,492. Total cases climbed to 134,613.

    In Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and the worst-hit part of the state, there are now more than 86,000 new coronavirus cases, and more than 1,200 deaths.

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    The percentage of ICU beds occupied declined slightly to 89%.

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    The state’s total positivity rate declined to 12.1%.

    * * *

    Update (1040ET): Florida was one of the few silver linings yesterday. As California and Texas posted new records, the Sunshine State reported roughly 10k new cases, its lowest tally in days. But that reversed on Thursday as the state reported nearly 14k new cases, a near record daily total.

    But that changed on Thursday, as Florida reported 13,837 (+4.6%) new cases over the last 24 hours, per the state Department of Health (that’s compared with a 7-day average of 4.4%) and another record number of new daily deaths.

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    Florida’s total case count surpassed 300k earlier in the week; presently, it stands at 315,775 following Thursday’s increase (all cases are reported with a 24-hour delay).

    But a more disheartening headline on Thursday was the death toll, which came in at a record 156 on Thursday, beating the last record by more than 30 cases. That brought the statewide death toll to 4,677, and comes as media warns about the risk of deaths surging in the coming days and weeks due to the ‘death lag’. The percentage of tests that came back positive was 15.4%.

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    As Arizona’s outbreak continues to slow (just as Goldman anticipated), likely due at least in part to Gov Ducey’s aggressive action, Florida has cemented its position as coronavirus leader for the entire US.

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    Experts are blaming the spike on tourists in hot spots like Miami ignoring social distancing regulations, and spreading the virus from other parts of the US.

    Whatever the cause or causes, this will undoubtedly ratchet up pressure on Gov Ron DeSantis to make mask-wearing mandatory in public.

    * * *

    Days after adopting its more restrictive measures to combat COVID-19 yet, Hong Kong has reported a record single-day jump in newly confirmed cases, its third record-setting tally in a week.

    A record 63 local cases were reported on Thursday. Of these, 35 were of unknown origin, according to the city’s health department. The city-state’s new outbreak has infected 300+ people under two weeks, with more than a third of infections bearing no discernible connections to preexisting outbreaks.

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    Meanwhile, in the US, as the nationwide death toll topped 140k, the number of new cases reported yesterday (remember these numbers come with a 24-hour delay) was the second-highest yet, coming in at more than 65k.

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    Yesterday, both Texas and California reported new single-day records, which certainly helped drive the total higher.

    As another wave of infections sweeps across southeast Asia, Indonesia is planning to fine violators of social distancing rules under a new law as President Joko Widodo scrambles to contain an outbreak that his government once deliberately tried to ignore and dismiss as nonexistent, despite the threat posed to his people.

    Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, Tokyo also reported another daily record of 286 new coronavirus cases as Japanese grow concerned about the outbreak in the capital, which is now under level 4 COVID-19 alert, the highest possible. The government is now trying to discourage travel and commuting, scrapping a campaign to promote domestic tourism. While the city’s latest cluster was traced to nightclubs, officials believe it has now traveled much further.

    Meanwhile, Australia’s second-most-populous state, Victoria, also recorded 317 new cases, its biggest spike yet too, as the state struggles to clamp down on a sudden reemergence of infections that has threatened to spread across all of Australia. The jump comes one week after Melbourne and some of the surrounding area entered a new partial lockdown.

    The 7-day average of COVID-19 deaths in the US as ticked higher to levels not seen in 2 weeks as the pattern appears to plateau. The US reported roughly 1,000 deaths on Thursday.

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    Globally, the US reported another 230k+ new cases, and just under 5k deaths, driving the global case total north of 13.5 million (exact total: 13,727,388 per Worldometer).

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    But while the numbers on the chart appear to show a slight tick higher, the deluge of MSM warnings that the death lag is very, very real have seemed almost unhinged in their authors’ refusal to acknowledge several factors – including lower median age of those infected and more effective treatment strategies – that might constrain deaths from returning to their highs from the NYC peak. Or 3,000 deaths a day, as the NYT once predicted.

    However, the latest data out of Bloomberg shows that overall mortality continues to decline. Overall ICU deaths have fallen to just under 42% at the end of May from almost 60% in March, according to the first systematic analysis of two dozen studies involving more than 10,000 patients spanning three continents. Such news is fortunate given the “unprecedented demand” that the virus has imposed on these services.

  • Has Cancel Culture Infected Your Kids' School? A Parent Group May Have A Remedy
    Has Cancel Culture Infected Your Kids’ School? A Parent Group May Have A Remedy

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 20:10

    Submitted by Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

    Claiming ‘Unique Opportunity to Lead the Nation,’ Parents Ask High School to Adopt ‘Freedom of Expression Resolution’

    Has the cancel culture infected your kids’ school? A parent group may have a partial remedy. A resolution submitted to the New Trier High School board in north suburban Chicago would, if adopted, assure:

    New Trier High School’s fundamental commitment is to the principle that debate or deliberation may not be suppressed because the ideas put forth are thought by some or even by most members of the New Trier High School community to be offensive, unwise.

    It would guaranty all members of the school community “the broadest possible latitude to speak, write, listen, challenge, and learn.”

    The resolution apparently would be the first of its kind in the nation at the high school level. It is modeled on The Chicago Statement, which was adopted by the University of Chicago in 2015 in response to the illiberal trend of free speech intolerance on college campuses. The full resolution appears below.

    It was drafted by New Trier Neighbors, a parent group that grew out of opposition to what was criticized as one-sided content in the school’s “Seminar Day” in 2017, which a Wall Street Journal article called “Racial Indoctrination Day.”

    The seminar received extensive, national media attention because of its exclusive focus on topics like systemic racism, implicit bias and, as the Journal put it, the “divisive view of race as a primordial fact, the essence of identity, a bright line between oppressed and oppressor.”

    We wrote about it here at the time. My son attended the school then. I was among the critics who asked for a broader range of viewpoints like those of Robert Woodson, Shelby Steele, Thomas Sowell, John McWhorter and Corey Brooks. The school rejected our requests.

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    New Trier High School in Winnetka, Illinois

    Since then, the school has only broadened what it describes as its “equity initiative,” expanding what dissenting parents regard as authoritarian imposition of the far left’s single-minded views on race – as well as other topics. Last year, the school moved to infuse its administration’s views on “equity” into virtually all subject areas including math, science, sports, language and more, which you can see in the memo linked here.

    Some right-of-center students have spoken up about having their viewpoints squelched, and even being penalized on grading for their views. My kids reported the same things when there.

    New Trier is hardly alone. Similar stories from high schools and even grade schools around the country are now common.

    The resolution presents the school with an opportunity to move in a more balanced direction that respects diversity of opinion and returns the school to a focus on critical thinking skills.  New Trier Neighbors drafted the resolution in consultation with the K-12 policy experts at the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education.

    No word yet on how or when the school board will act on it.

    We often receive emails at Wirepoints from ordinary citizens asking “What can I do? How can I get involved to stop what’s happening?”

    This resolution is one answer. Push for a similar one in your school districts.

    The cancel culture that now plagues the nation has its roots where it should have no place whatsoever – schools. That’s especially true about the disastrously counterproductive orthodoxy on systemic racism, implicit bias and the like. Its easily predictable consequences are now apparent across the nation – more racism and division. Race relations have been set back by fifty years.

    For those reasons, what New Trier itself does with the resolution is actually secondary. While we hope it will adopt the resolution, it’s far more important that its introduction set a trend for districts around the nation.

    Indoctrination long ago replaced education on most college campuses. Freedom of expression resolutions might help save high schools from the same fate.

    Parents, it’s in your hands.

    *Mark Glennon is founder of Wirepoints.

    *******************

    The New Trier High School Freedom of Expression Resolution, presented to the Board for adoption in its entirety, and based on The Chicago Statement:

    Because New Trier High School is committed to free and open inquiry in all matters, it guarantees all members of the New Trier High School community the broadest possible latitude to speak, write, listen, challenge, and learn. Except insofar as limitations on that freedom are necessary to the functioning of New Trier High School, New Trier High School fully respects and supports the freedom of all members of the New Trier High School community “to discuss any problem that presents itself.”

    Of course, the ideas of different members of the New Trier High School community will often and quite naturally conflict. But it is not the proper role of New Trier High School to attempt to shield individuals from ideas and opinions they find unwelcome, disagreeable, or even offensive. Although New Trier High School greatly values civility, and although all members of the New Trier High School community share in the responsibility for maintaining a climate of mutual respect, concerns about civility and mutual respect can never be used as a justification for closing off discussion of ideas, however offensive or disagreeable those ideas may be to some members of our community.

    The freedom to debate and discuss the merits of competing ideas does not, of course, mean that individuals may say whatever they wish, wherever they wish. New Trier High School may restrict expression that violates the law, that falsely defames a specific individual, that constitutes a genuine threat or harassment, that unjustifiably invades substantial privacy or confidentiality interests, or that is otherwise directly incompatible with the functioning of New Trier High School.In addition, New Trier High School may reasonably regulate the time, place, and manner of expression to ensure that it does not disrupt the ordinary activities of New Trier High School. But these are narrow exceptions to the general principle of freedom of expression, and it is vitally important that these exceptions never be used in a manner that is inconsistent with New Trier High School’s commitment to a completely free and open discussion of ideas.

    In a word, New Trier High School’s fundamental commitment is to the principle that debate or deliberation may not be suppressed because the ideas put forth are thought by some or even by most members of the New Trier High School community to be offensive, unwise, immoral, or wrong-headed. It is for the individual members of the New Trier High School community, not for New Trier High School as an institution, to make those judgments for themselves, and to act on those judgments not by seeking to suppress speech, but by openly and vigorously contesting the ideas that they oppose. Indeed, fostering the ability of members of the New Trier High School community to engage in such debate and deliberation in an effective and responsible manner is an essential part of New Trier High School’s educational mission.

    As a corollary to New Trier High School’s commitment to protect and promote free expression, members of the New Trier High School community must also act in conformity with the principle of free expression. Although members of the New Trier High School community are free to criticize and contest the views expressed on campus, and to criticize and contest speakers who are invited to express their views on campus, they may not obstruct or otherwise interfere with the freedom of others to express views they reject or even loathe. To this end, New Trier High School has a solemn responsibility not only to promote a lively and fearless freedom of debate and deliberation, but also to protect that freedom when others attempt to restrict it.”

  • Trump Secretly Authorized CIA To Run "Very Aggressive" Cyberwar Ops With No Oversight
    Trump Secretly Authorized CIA To Run “Very Aggressive” Cyberwar Ops With No Oversight

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 19:50

    A bombshell new investigative report in Yahoo News could shed light on the recent spate of ‘mystery’ blasts rocking strategic Iranian sites like Natanz nuclear plant and ballistic missile bases. 

    The report details that in 2018 President Trump issued a ‘secret authorization’ essentially allowing a ‘gloves off’ approach by US intelligence agencies in conducting cyber warfare against Iran and other so-called rogue states:

    The Central Intelligence Agency has conducted a series of covert cyber operations against Iran and other targets since winning a secret victory in 2018 when President Trump signed what amounts to a sweeping authorization for such activities, according to former U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the matter.

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    File image via Outside the Beltway

    It appears the kind of hidden ‘dirty war’ operations which accompanied the Washington’s long-running proxy war against Assad in Syria. This amid a broader Iran policy spanning across administrations – through at least the Bush years – targeting Tehran for regime change

    “The secret authorization, known as a presidential finding, gives the spy agency more freedom in both the kinds of operations it conducts and who it targets, undoing many restrictions that had been in place under prior administrations,” the report continues. “The finding allows the CIA to more easily authorize its own covert cyber operations, rather than requiring the agency to get approval from the White House.”

    But it’s not just Iran, according to the report, but other ‘official enemies’ and so-called rogue states like North Korea, and including Russia and China.

    This also as both Russia and China have this week stood accused of attempting to hack US labs and pharmaceutical companies to gain valuable coronavirus research and vaccine development information. 

    The Yahoo News report continues

    The “very aggressive” finding “gave the agency very specific authorities to really take the fight offensively to a handful of adversarial countries,” said a former U.S. government official. These countries include Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — which are mentioned directly in the document — but the finding potentially applies to others as well, according to another former official. “The White House wanted a vehicle to strike back,” said the second former official. “And this was the way to do it.”

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    In essence this means the CIA can simply authorize its own operations regarding these countries if there’s evidence or even just strong suspicion that an entity could be a threat to US national security. This means for example that Iranian or journalists, banks, or their foreign organizations could (and have been) targeted for state-run hacking and cyber-warfare operations

    One former official who remains critical of the Trump authorization said: “Our government is basically turning into f***ing WikiLeaks.” Consider this explosive section of the report:

    The finding has made it easier for the CIA to damage adversaries’ critical infrastructure, such as petrochemical plants, and to engage in the kind of hack-and-dump operations that Russian hackers and WikiLeaks popularized, in which tranches of stolen documents or data are leaked to journalists or posted on the internet. It has also freed the agency to conduct disruptive operations against organizations that were largely off limits previously, such as banks and other financial institutions.

    Another key change with the finding is it lessened the evidentiary requirements that limited the CIA’s ability to conduct covert cyber operations against entities like media organizations, charities, religious institutions or businesses believed to be working on behalf of adversaries’ foreign intelligence services, as well as individuals affiliated with these organizations, according to former officials.

    And now recall the widespread speculation this month that the series of over six ‘random’ blasts and fires which have disabled key Iranian military and industrial sites is part of either a US or Israeli sabotage operation. 

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    Aftermath of July 2 blast that destroyed a centrifuge workshop at the Natanz installation. Many speculated it was the work of Israeli or US intelligence, or both.

    Asia Times recently asked for exampleare we witnessing the “the son of Stuxnet?”

    Recent explosions in Iran may have been caused by computer viruses similar to the Stuxnet virus that disabled Iranian centrifuges in 2010.

    Two of the blasts took place at power plants, one at a missile research, development and production site, one at a new uranium enrichment centrifuge center, and the last (if it can be considered part of the attacks) in downtown Tehran at a medical facility that could have been a cover for nuclear operations such as a hidden command center.

    Thus the timing of this new revelation detailing the secret Trump presidential finding essentially giving the CIA near carte blanche powers to wage cyberwarfare is curious indeed. 

  • Profs Demand University Police Chief Resign After Seeing 'Blue Lives Matter' Flag At His Home
    Profs Demand University Police Chief Resign After Seeing ‘Blue Lives Matter’ Flag At His Home

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 19:30

    Authored by McKenna Dallmeyer via Campus Reform,

    Even after the police chief at West Virginia University publicly apologized for a “Thin Blue Line” flag displayed in his home during a Zoom meeting, professors at the university are still demanding his resignation. 

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    In response to George Floyd’s death, West Virginia University’s Vice President for Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Meshea Poore and W.P. Chedester, chief of University Police, sent out a letter to the students and faculty of WVU.

    “We stand united against the violence and racism, discrimination or bias towards Black people that has plagued our country for so many years,” the letter read.

    “And by recognizing there is a systemic problem in many law enforcement agencies across the U.S. and taking a stand against injustice, we can begin the process of rebuilding trust within our communities.”

    In order to discuss “how we can work together to foster a safe, diverse, and inclusive culture,” West Virginia University hosted a virtual Campus Conversation over Zoom. The format of the call allowed students to ask questions to university officials regarding race relations on campus.

    Visible during the video conference was a hand-carved Thin Blue Line flag on Chedester’s wall. 

    The Thin Blue Line flag is viewed by many as a symbol of “honor and respect” for law enforcement. According to Flags of Valor, “the Thin Blue Line embodies the unbreakable component of law enforcement standing as a safety barrier between the law-abiding citizens of America and the criminally inclined.”

    Students and faculty were outraged by the chief’s choice of wall decor and expressed their grievances with WVU immediately.

    Within hours, Chedester issued a letter of apology for the pro-law enforcement flag being displayed behind him during the virtual conference. 

    He said that the flag always symbolized “a way to honor the commitment I made as a first responder to protect our community,” adding “I understand now that it represents something else to many others; something that I now know was traumatic to some of our community tuning in for our Conversation.”

    “I sincerely did not have any intent to suggest that police lives matter more than Black lives nor was I intentionally trying to cause any harm or offense,” Chedester continued.

    Chedester then promised to remove the flag from his office. 

    “I am committed to rebuilding that trust beginning today. I am taking the flag down from my office wall,” he concluded.

    Some WVU facuty members were still not satisfied with these sentiments. 

    On WVU’s tweet linking Chedester’s apology, assistant professor in WVU’s Department of English Rose Caseyreplied thanking Chedester and explaining that “the Blue Lives Matter flag is associated with white supremacy.” 

    She then linked a Politico article conflating the flag with racism because it was spotted beside a Confederate flag at the 2017 “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. The same article quotes Arizona State University professor of criminology Michael White who said the flag
    “fosters this ‘us versus them’ mentality.’”

    WVU Associate Professor of Biochemical Genetics Vagner Benedito called for Chedester’s resignation on Twitter in reply to the chief’s apology letter: “The only way forward is with his resignation. Why is it so difficult to comprehend?”

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    Thank you. The Blue Lives Matter flag is associated with white supremacy. Given the racism that the country is grappling with, which this talk was meant to address, UPD Chief Chedester’s apology is welcome. Let’s continue to be talk honestly about what we’re addressing: racism.

    — Rose Casey (@ARoseCasey) June 11, 2020

    Benedito commented again on Twitter demanding Chedester’s resignation. 

    “Campus police chief is a position we all should trust. POC will not be trusting his leadership. Moving forward, he must resign to make sure there is inclusions and equality regarding the police actions on campus!” Benedito wrote.

    Benedito told Campus Reform that it while it would be “ludicrous” to expect Chedester to remove the flag from his office, he does “expect the police on campus to defend everyone, including minorities,” and believes that Chedesters’ possession of the flag demonstrates his unwillingness to do so. 

    “As you already know, that flag was crafted to oppose the Black Lives Matter movement, even though historically police lives have always mattered while black lives have been taken away by systematic police brutality over and over again,” Benedito said.

    Benedito added that he did not find Chedester’s apology letter “convincing.”

    “If he was indeed ignorant about its meaning, he should not be in a position of so much power for being so much misinformed about the current situation of the country, especially in matters involving the police,” Benedito told Campus Reform.

    “To be clear, the diverse community at WVU and allies are demanding the replacement of WVU Chief Police moving forward,” Benedito said.

  • State-Linked Chinese Firm Uses Own Workers As Guinea Pigs In Unregulated Vaccine "Pre-Test" 
    State-Linked Chinese Firm Uses Own Workers As Guinea Pigs In Unregulated Vaccine “Pre-Test” 

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 19:10

    A major Chinese state-run pharmaceutical company is going to extreme, and some might say dangerous, lengths to develop a coronavirus vaccine at a moment the global race is on to get one safely out. 

    The company announced this week that its Chinese employees and even top executives stood in as guinea pigs for a “pre-test” of its potential new vaccine

    SinoPharm said that 30 of its own “special volunteers” had the experimental vaccine administered to them prior to it going through a rigorous regulations and official approval process. It’s bringing up serious ethical questions over to what degree state-linked Chinese firms are coercing their employees into participating in unregulated and experimental pharmaceutical tests.

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    SinoPharm boasts that its workers are “Giving a helping hand in forging the sword of victory.” Via AP

    The Associated Press reported of the company statements

    SinoPharm’s claim that 30 “special volunteers” rolled up their sleeves even before the company got permission for its initial human study raises ethical concerns among Western observers. The company’s post cites a “spirit of sacrifice” and shows seven men in suits and ties — a mix of scientists, businessmen and one Communist Party official with a background in military propaganda.

    The SinoPharm statement touted that its employees were “giving a helping hand in forging the sword of victory.”

    China’s state media propagated the firm’s statement via English language outlets:

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    Currently there’s some eight experimental vaccines in various stages of testing being developed in China, and many more at labs worldwide.

    SinoPharm brochure touting that their own top executives are receiving an experimental shot: 

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    The Hill described that SinoPharm’s vaccine is unique, in that it “mirrors the development of the polio vaccine, and uses an ‘inactivated’ or killed virus to develop the vaccine. Most Western vaccine development uses technology to focus on the protein on the virus instead.”

    Critics have said it sets a precedent for employees at Chinese companies to feel “pressured” or forced into being human subjects in unapproved and unregulated tests. The whole thing also presents a severe conflict of interest when it comes whatever limited anecdotal data might be gained from tests on a few dozen of their own employees.

  • That Civilized Relic: A Monetary System As Good As Gold
    That Civilized Relic: A Monetary System As Good As Gold

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 18:50

    Authored by Alexander Salter via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    John Maynard Keynes, the progenitor of modern macroeconomics, famously dismissed the gold standard as a “barbarous relic.”

    Commodity monies have been held in low regard by economists ever since.

    The disdain has spread to noneconomists in policy making circles, as well. 

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    Dr. Judy Shelton is a rare exception. She is a well-known defender of the gold standard. For this reason, her nomination to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors has been somewhat controversial. Even the Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee seemed concerned about her support for gold. (Shelton directed the Sound Money Project, before it was acquired by AIER. I have been associated with the project since 2014.) 

    The legislators’ hesitance to confirm Dr. Shelton’s nomination seems to have waned. The committee confirmation vote has been scheduled. Nevertheless, it is both interesting and distressing that supporting the gold standard runs the risk of making one a persona non grata, even in supposedly pro-market circles.

    The low regard economists and policymakers have for the gold standard is unfounded.

    Sadly, many of these supposed “experts” are almost completely innocent of monetary history. To the extent that they are schooled in monetary economics at all, their education is largely theoretical. They can recite the standard academic boilerplate about how a perfectly managed fiat money system outperforms a perfectly operating commodity money system. It seems never to have occurred to them that the relevant comparison is actually existing fiat systems versus actually existing commodity systems. On this margin, the historical evidence is strongly suggestive if not definitive. In practice, the gold standard provides a better anchor for inflation expectations without an obvious cost in terms of lower output or higher unemployment.

    Technically, there is no such thing as the gold standard. There were many gold standards. Some use the term to denote a system where physical gold coins are used as money. Others use it to mean any system where a given volume of gold is the unit of account and the medium of redemption for bank liabilities. And others still use it to refer specifically to the “classical” or “international” gold standard, which prevailed from 1879-1914. For the purposes of this essay, I use “gold standard” to mean the US experience under the National Banking System (1863-1914), starting in 1879, when the US retired the last of its lingering Civil War liabilities (greenbacks) and resumed gold redeemability.

    If the gold standard were really so inferior to fiat money managed by modern central banks, you would expect it to show up in the historical time series. As it turns out, the evidence suggests the opposite. 

    In a 2012 paper, George Selgin, William Lastrapes, and Lawrence White rigorously compared the pre- and post-Fed periods in US economic history. Their findings are clear: even if you ignore the “learning curve” period from 1913 to 1945, there is scant evidence the Fed helped to stabilize markets. In addition to the long-run decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, the Fed period saw more instances of macroeconomic stability, not less. Furthermore, even over the short run, the purchasing power of money (the inverse of the price level) became less predictable. 

    The comparison provides an even more damning criticism of fiat money systems when one considers that (1) the US dollar has been one of the better-managed fiat monies and (2) the National Banking System had several known deficiencies. Examples include the requirement that banknotes be backed by government bonds and prohibitions against branch banking, which made the system rather unstable. And yet, the Fed was not an obvious improvement.

    Many of these results were confirmed by my AIER colleague, Thomas Hogan, in a 2015 paper. Hogan also subjects the pre- and post-Fed periods to scrutiny. Once again, discretionary central banking is found wanting. Inflation has been higher under the Fed, while GDP growth has been lower. Inflation volatility, a key measure of monetary predictability, was worse under the Fed, too. And, yet, GDP was no less volatile under the Fed. So much for the superiority of fiat money. 

    As my friend and coauthor Bryan Cutsinger puts it, the gold standard apparently is “superior in some respects and no worse in others.” Rather than an antiquated holdover retarding economic performance, the gold standard was a crucial component of the impressive economic growth that occurred during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. It is a period in Western history sometimes referred to as La Belle Époque: an era of peace and prosperity, driven largely by the growth of commerce and the extension of markets. That, in turn, depended upon the Western nations’ commitment to sound money, in the form of gold redeemability.

    The inescapable conclusion is that gold is no “barbarous relic,” as Keynes maintained. If anything, it is a civilizing force. Don’t let anyone tell you the gold standard is a macroeconomic burden. It just isn’t true. 

    The gold standard isn’t perfect. No system is. But it has many virtues. A strong case can be made that it’s the best of all feasible institutional alternatives. As my dissertation adviser, Lawrence White, puts it: The gold standard is still the gold standard among monetary systems.

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Today’s News 16th July 2020

  • Global Fertility Decline Will See Population In Over 20 Countries Halved By 2100: Study
    Global Fertility Decline Will See Population In Over 20 Countries Halved By 2100: Study

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 02:45

    A new study from by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, and reported in AFP, finds that the earth is projected to have two billion fewer people by the next century than current United Nations projections forecast for “normal” global development. 

    It forecasts a population peak by the 2060’s at an estimated 9.7 billion people, after which a steep decline will ensue down to 8.8 billion by 2100.

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    Currently, the global fertility rate stands at 2.4, but based on the study’s numbers, it’s expected to be at a “jaw-dropping” 1.7 by end of the century, as one the main authors Professor Christopher Murray described.

    The study found alarmingly that 23 countries are expected to see their total population cut in at least half by the year 2100, among them include Italy, Japan, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain and Thailand.

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    Some of the examples listed in the report are as follows:

    Japan: from around 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100

    Thailand: 71 million to 35 million

    Spain: 46 million to 23 million

    Italy: 61 million to 31 million 

    Portugal: 11 million to 5 million

    South Korea: 53 million to 27 million

    Astoundingly – or perhaps entirely to be expected – mainstream media is hailing it as a “success story” given that it’s not about sperm count, but more and more women simply choosing to not have children. 

    Chart illustrating the dramatic shift over the next hundred years via The Lancet/IHME

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    For example BBC wrote, “It has nothing to do with sperm counts or the usual things that come to mind when discussing fertility. Instead it is being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children.”

    “In many ways, falling fertility rates are a success story,” BBC concluded, echoing some of the authors of the original study.

  • Turkish Proxies In Syria Went Out Of Control, Attack Joint Turkish-Russian Patrol
    Turkish Proxies In Syria Went Out Of Control, Attack Joint Turkish-Russian Patrol

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 02:00

    Submitted by SouthFront,

    On July 14th and 15th, Syrian Army artillery units and warplanes of the Russian Aerospace Forces conducted extensive strikes on positions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Turkistan Islamic Party and other radical groups in northern Lattakia and southern Idlib. The main strikes hit fortified positions, weapon depots and gatherings of fighters and equipment near Kbana, Sifouhn, al-Muzarra, Ain al-Aruz, Kansafra, Kafr Uwayd, Mawzrah and Humaymat. According to pro-government sources, over a dozen militants were killed and injured, and 2 weapon depots were destroyed.

    These strikes came in response to a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack on a joint Turkish-Russian patrol on the M4 highway in southern Idlib on July 14. The explosion hit the patrol near Ariha. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, 3 Russian soldiers and some Turkish troops were injured. The Turkish Defense Ministry added that nobody was killed, but 2 vehicles of the convoy were damaged. A photo of the damaged BTR-82A is also circulating online.

    A previously unknown group, Kataib Hattab ash-Shishani, claimed responsibility for the attack saying that the suicide bomber was one of theirs. Nonetheless, there is no such group active in Idlib. Most likely, this is a fake brand used to draw attention away from the real attackers. The main suspect would be the coalition of al-Qaeda-linked groups Fa Ithbatu, which recently lost a conflict for money and power to its elder brother Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which used to be the official branch of al-Qaeda in Syria. The Fa Ithbatu leadership sees the current ceasefire in Idlib as a threat to its interests because Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is using it to solidify its control over the few Idlib areas where its influence is still limited. The new round of clashes between the Syrian Army and Turkish-led forces in Idlib is the only thing that can help it to keep its independence and its access to resources for a significant period of time.

    The Turkish military reacted to the situation by sending additional troops and equipment, including trucks with concrete blocks, to Idlib city. Instead of fighting terrorists, Ankara seems to be planning to create more fortifications to protect them from a possible offensive by the Syrian Army or its allies.

    Meanwhile, the Syrian Army detained 3 members of the US-backed militant group Maghawir al-Thawra near Palmyra. The militants were tasked with collecting data about Russian, Iranian and Syrian military targets in central Syria. Earlier, Russia warned that the US-led coalition is training groups of militants in al-Tanf  to conduct sabotage operations against civilian and military infrastructure in the government-controlled part of Syria.

  • "Get Out Now": Pompeo Prepares New Sanctions Over Nearly Complete Russia-Germany NS2 Pipeline
    “Get Out Now”: Pompeo Prepares New Sanctions Over Nearly Complete Russia-Germany NS2 Pipeline

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 07/16/2020 – 01:00

    While it’s the Trump administration’s new punitive measures targeting China which have been driving headlines, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also signaled new measures related to the controversial Russia-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline. 

    “Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said a sanctions exemption will be removed for a Russian natural-gas pipeline to Germany, paving the way for new penalties to be imposed on the contentious project,” The Wall Street Journal described of his comments.

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    Nord Stream 2 pipe-laying ship, file image.

    “Mr. Pompeo said Wednesday that the State Department will lift a proviso that spared the pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2, from a 2017 sanctions measure,” the report added.

    Already the major companies laying the massive NS2 pipeline and their executives have been threatened with sanction as of last year, which temporarily halted construction. From there Russia vowed to outfit pipe-laying ships and fill in the gap via its energy giant Gazprom.

    The newly announced measures will allow a wider range of punishment options against companies working on the pipeline as it nears completion, which Washington has long been trying to thwart. 

    “Our expectation is that those who participate in the continued project will be subject to review for potential consequences,” Pompeo announced

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    “It’s a clear warning to companies aiding and abetting Russia’s malign-influence projects it will not be tolerated,” Pompeo said.

    “Get out now, or risk the consequences,” he warned.

    Pompeo’s Wednesday statement further targeted a separate Russian natural gas project, specifically through Turkey.

    The statement mentioned Turkstream pipelines as putting companies “at risk” of sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.

  • The Hague's 2016 Verdict Exposed Communist China's Predatory War On World Order
    The Hague’s 2016 Verdict Exposed Communist China’s Predatory War On World Order

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 23:50

    Authored by Austin Bay via The Epoch Times,

    Four years ago this week, the Chinese Communist Party declared war on international order in the form of a blunt rejection.

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    On July 12, 2016, The Hague’s international arbitral tribunal, relying on the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea treaty (UNCLOS), issued a ruling supporting the Philippines’ claims that China had violated Filipino territory in the South China Sea by seizing islets and “sea features.” China had also plundered resources in the Philippines’ maritime Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

    Despite having signed the sea treaty (which meant accepting the arbitration process), the Chinese government callously ignored the verdict and disdained the court’s authority.

    UNCLOS codified the geophysical conditions and legal precedents establishing sovereign control of territorial waters and sovereign rights in the EEZ. It is an example of practical, peace-promoting diplomacy.

    China’s blunt rejection of the decision stunned the Filipino government and alerted other nations on the Pacific Rim. The Beijing regime not only broke a major treaty it had ratified but also openly maligned legal procedures created to promote peaceful resolution of international disputes. Beijing’s thuggish rebuke sent the message that Chinese whim backed by China’s enormous military and economic power determined sovereignty in the South China Sea.

    Chinese communist predatory behavior long predates 2016, but in retrospect, Beijing’s appalling reaction to the ruling clearly demonstrated the CCP could not be trusted to abide by even the most meticulously negotiated treaty. The CCP’s June 2020 decision to break the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 and impose its authoritarian laws on Hong Kong reinforced the ugly lesson that treaties with communist China do not protect smaller nations and territories from Chinese theft and absorption.

    Reneging on treaties, spurning just verdicts and, of course, seizing territory without suffering severe consequences tells China’s leaders that its opponents are weak and lack the will to resist. Undermining, co-opting and ultimately dominating global diplomatic and economic institutions; public and private organizations; and methods of interaction is another CCP goal. Revealing weakness forwards this line of operation.

    For decades, the U.S. Navy has conducted Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS). During a FONOP, a Navy vessel enters contested waters and demonstrates American opposition to maritime territorial claims that intrude on international shipping lanes. In 2015, the U.S. began regular FONOPS specifically challenging China’s spurious claims in the South China Sea.

    In 2016, the U.S. limited its response to China’s rejection of the tribunal ruling. Washington strongly criticized China’s mistreatment of the Philippines, encouraged diplomatic and defense cooperation among southeast Asian nations, and continued the FONOPS, but it avoided a direct, “great power” diplomatic confrontation with Beijing.

    The Hong Kong invasion, China’s cyber hacking, China’s pervasive espionage operations and its duplicity regarding the COVID-19/Wuhan virus pandemic have finally convinced senior American leaders that a CCP-led China only respects power, and only greater power can deter its ambitions.

    On July 13, 2020, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a “strengthened” U.S. policy in the South China Sea that specifically aligns American policy with the tribunal’s decision. “Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them,” Pompeo said. “(W)e seek to preserve peace and stability, uphold freedom of the seas in a manner consistent with international law, maintain the unimpeded flow of commerce, and oppose any attempt to use coercion or force to settle disputes.”

    Calling CCP-led China an unprecedented threat, he succinctly described Beijing’s theft and extortion racket.

    “Beijing uses intimidation to undermine the sovereign rights of Southeast Asian coastal states in the South China Sea, bully them out of offshore resources, assert unilateral dominion, and replace international law with ‘might makes right.’“

    Pompeo backed his statement with a promise:

    “America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law.”

    Protection: Since China ignores treaties, protecting means employing American military might.

    *  *  *

    Austin Bay is a colonel (ret.) in the U.S. Army Reserve, author, syndicated columnist, and a teacher in strategy and strategic theory at the University of Texas. His latest book is “Cocktails from Hell: Five Wars Shaping the 21st Century.”

  • Pornhub Offers Free Advertising For Small Businesses Crushed By Pandemic
    Pornhub Offers Free Advertising For Small Businesses Crushed By Pandemic

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 23:30

    Pornhub issued a press release on Monday, indicating it will provide free advertising space for small businesses affected by the virus-induced economic crash. 

    The campaign is called “A BIG PACKAGE,” exclusively for small businesses that need “a little stimulation,” said the world’s largest porn site. 

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    No matter where you are, if yours is small and it needs a little stimulation, we’re the experts. That’s why, we’re giving away free ads on pornhub.com to the tune of 1 billion impressions, exclusively to small businesses everywhere. Because what better place to connect with new customers than a website that receives over 120 million happy visitors a day. – the release states

    Pornhub lists only one requirement for small businesses to freely advertise on the site: 

    If you own a company with less than 100 employees, you’re eligible to apply. Complete the form below, and if you’re selected, we’ll create a series of customized ads for your business… inspired by ours. So, instead of tightening your belt in this economy, let us help you loosen it. – the release states

    The campaign is global, from New York City to Tokyo – Pornhub wants small businesses to advertise on its site for free. Here’s a promotional video of “Big Package:” 

    During the pandemic lockdowns, Pornhub offered free premium accounts to anyone in the world, an effort to flatten the virus curve, the company said in March. 

  • "Probably By Year End" – Alasdair Macleod Warns "The Dollar Is On Its Way To Zero"
    “Probably By Year End” – Alasdair Macleod Warns “The Dollar Is On Its Way To Zero”

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 23:10

    Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

    Finance and economic expert Alasdair Macleod says the gold market is “extremely dangerous as far as the bullion banks, swaps and trading desks” that, at some point soon, are going to have to deliver physical gold they do not have.  

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    Macleod explains,

    “I find it difficult to see how they can close it… The possibility of a default and the possibility of a ‘force majeure’ is increasing all the time in this current situation.  This is a difficult thing to predict, but unless someone can show me there is a way out of this . . . I can’t see how these banks can be rescued.

    So, the only way the banks can be saved is if they can deliver tons of physical gold they likely don’t have?  Macleod says, “Which they don’t have, not likely have, they don’t have.”

    Macleod thinks failure to deliver gold is coming soon where the contract will be settled in cash and not physical metal.  How many times can the gold market do this?  Macleod says,

    “I think it will be the end of the futures market because nobody would trust it as a means of delivering gold.  I mean it would have demonstrably failed.  So, why would you play with it again?  Of course, the failure of COMEX contracts is a very, very serious issue.”

    What happens to the price of gold?  Macleod says, “The price is already on its way to infinity or, put more accurately, the dollar is on its way to zero…” 

    “The question I think you really want to know the answer to is how long will that take?  In my view, not very long.  Probably by the end of the year because we’ve got another thing happening in the background, and that is we have a banking crisis developing.  This is the natural consequence of the contraction of bank credit.  There is the effect of tariffs on top of that that turn a normal cycle of bank credit contraction into a 1929 to 1932 horror show. . . . If you have a banking collapse, then those assets values will just go down in the pan.  The next thing, of course, bond yields start rising because of the inflationary implications of a financial collapse.  At that stage, government financing becomes impossible because governments are in effect bankrupt.”

    Macleod says stocks, the dollar and bonds all go down together and explains,

    “That is the lesson of history.  Everything just goes away.  If you destroy the currency, you destroy all the financial assets that are priced in it.  That just happens.  It just goes.”

    In closing, Macleod says, “I think the problems with the currency are going to happen by the end of this year…” 

    “I think the problems of the COMEX are going to happen considerably before that.  I think they are going to be tied into a wider banking crisis.  A banking crisis is certain.  I cannot see how it can be avoided. . . . If our end point is the purchasing power of the dollar goes to zero, then you can see $1,800 for the price of gold and $19 for the price of silver is chicken crap compared to where it’s going to go.  So, this is a major, major move that is happening, not because they are buying gold and silver so much, but because people are beginning to realize what is happening to the purchasing power of the dollar, pound, euro and so on and so forth.  That is the thing to keep in mind. . . . I think the dollar will be destroyed by year end, and the price of gold and silver is infinity. . . .  I think the banking crisis could start in a month.  Look what’s happening to their balance sheets. . . . I think the collapse is likely to be so rapid that in the absence of any other information, the best thing to do is to hold on to gold and silver as an insurance policy just in case I am right.”

    Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney.com.

    To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

  • Satellite Images Show US Airfield Expansion At Secretive Island Outpost Just Outside Chinese Missile Reach
    Satellite Images Show US Airfield Expansion At Secretive Island Outpost Just Outside Chinese Missile Reach

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 22:50

    Considered one of the most strategically important unincorporated US island outposts in the world, Wake Island is also among the most restricted territories claimed by the US (also claimed by the Marshall Islands), given it remains a key American military outpost located about halfway between Hawaii and Japan.

    It has historically served as a vital staging ground for US aircraft operating in the Western Pacific and as a remote line of defense, and is more recently witnessing military build-up as part of the US Navy’s “pivot toward the Pacific” — especially given rising US-China tensions and the controversial presence of two US supercarriers in the disputed South China Sea.  

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    US fighters over the remote Wake Island.

    Fresh satellite imagery republished by The Drive shows significant expansion to facilities, including to the airfield, which has a nearly 10,000 foot runway. Military publications have previously note that  “Wake is the only 10,000-foot runway for a 4,000-mile stretch of Pacific Ocean.”

    The report details that images “The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs dated June 25th, 2020 shows that substantial improvements to the base have occurred recently. Based on archival satellite imagery, the major expansions to the airfield began early this year and are still underway today.”

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    Planet Labs satellite imagery marked by The Drive showing areas where the airfield has undergone expansion or improvement. 

    Advanced American bombers routinely land and operate from Wake Island, supporting operations in the South Pacific. 

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    “Beyond its clear logistical utility, acting as a major hub where there isn’t another for thousands of miles, it sits outside the range of China’s and North Korea’s medium-range ballistic missiles, and largely at the end, if not entirely out of range, of their intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs),” a separate report noted

    “Guam, which is situated about 1,500 miles further west, is well within the range of these weapons.”

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    But Wake Island would be out of reach in any rapid conflict with either China or North Korea, which would target nearer bases up to and including Guam with long-range cruise missiles.

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    Thus Wake Island would be considered a first line fall-back position in any hot war with major US enemies in Asia. Conscious of this, it appears the Pentagon is busy rapidly improving the remote atoll. 

  • Is Twitter Hiding A Screenshot Of Its Trend And Search Blacklist Tools?
    Is Twitter Hiding A Screenshot Of Its Trend And Search Blacklist Tools?

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 22:41

    By now, you probably already know about the massive Twitter hack that has taken place this evening where, in summary, the following has taken place:

    • A massive hack which allegedly has originated at a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was, has affected hundreds of billionaires and politicians, including Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Gates, Kanye West, Elon Musk, Wiz Khalifa, Apple, Uber, Jeff Bezos, Benjamin Netanyahu

    • Tweets urged people to send money to a Bitcoin address; over $113,000 has been sent so far

    • Twitter has investigated and appears to have resolved most of the issue after taking down the offending Tweets and restoring access to the site for those with blue checkmarks, all of whom were previously shut down from the site

    For the full details on the hack, you can read our report on it here. But now, an even more sinister subplot is emerging from the ruins of Twitter’s reputation.

    Sources that are “close to or inside” the underground hacking community have leaked a screenshot of what is allegedly an internal software panel used by Twitter to interact with user accounts, according to a late Wednesday night report from Vice

    The tool is said to be used to help change ownership of popular accounts and, in the case of the hack, was said to play a role in usurping the high profile accounts involved. Here is a photo of the panel, with portions redacted by the leaker of the photo to Motherboard. 

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    Source: Vice

    The interesting thing is that screenshots of the supposed internal software are being aggressively pursued and deleted from Twitter by Twitter itself, with the company claiming that they violate the platform’s rules. In addition to being posted to Motherboard and Twitter, a similar image also appeared on a now deleted Tweet controlled by “Under the Breach”. They have since said their account has been suspended for 12 hours as a result of them posting it.

    Of particular interest are the buttons labeled “SEARCH BLACKLIST” and “TRENDS BLACKLIST”. Could these be tools actively used by Twitter to censor what Tweets and topics appear during searches and on its trends page?

    In other words, could this be the holy grail that all those who have accused Twitter over the years of shadowbanning conservative accounts, have been looking for?

    “As per our rules, we’re taking action on any private, personal information shared in Tweets,” Twitter told Motherboard in response to inquiries about the screenshot, and its deletion or suspension of any account that posted it.

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    While we cannot confirm independently that the screenshot is, in fact, from Twitter’s development/moderator tools, it certainly would open up a whole new can of worms regarding the hack if it turns out to be.

    For example, we recently just wrote about Twitter’s corporate initiative to ditch “offensive” words like “blacklist”. We noted just about 2 weeks ago that Twitter had announced a list of words and phrases that their engineering team will begin using in place of ‘problematic’ language which “does not reflect our values as a company or represent the people we serve.”

    Of course, “blacklist” was on the list of supposedly outgoing terms – but if it’s such a terrible word, why does it appear that Twitter continues to use it internally for the purposes of potentially identifying searches and trends they may not agree with?

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    Another example is from back in 2018, when Jack Dorsey took the Hill in Washington, D.C. to address the notion that Twitter could be disproportionately shadowbanning conservative voices on its site, Dorsey claimed that Twitter “believed strongly in being impartial”, according to Vox:

    Pressed again and again to admit to Twitter showing some type of bias, either systemic or personal, Dorsey consistently demurred. At one point, he sidestepped giving information, when challenged, about whether his own personal political leanings are liberal; at another, he refused to concede that President Trump’s Twitter account might be in violation of Twitter’s general content policies. “We believe strongly in being impartial,” Dorsey said, “and we strive to enforce our rules impartially.”

    He also told Congress that Twitter’s algorithms did not have a liberal bias:

    In response, Dorsey repeatedly explained that the algorithm had no inherent political bias and was simply sorting Twitter content on the basis of numerous behavior signals from the accounts it was reviewing.

    Perhaps the algorithms don’t – but maybe those manually using this alleged interface do?

    Regardless, once people are done asking how this unprecedented hack could have happened in the first place, we wouldn’t be surprised if attention turns to how these moderation tools, if they truly exist, are being implemented.

  • Back To School? "No Thanks" Say Millions Of Newly Homeschooling Parents
    Back To School? “No Thanks” Say Millions Of Newly Homeschooling Parents

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Kerry McDonald via The Foundation for Economic Education,

    With dehumanizing COVID-19 restrictions awaiting students at schools, many parents are opting to keep on homeschooling…

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    Next month marks the beginning of the 2020/2021 academic year in several US states, and pressure is mounting to reopen schools even as the COVID-19 pandemic persists. Florida, for example, is now considered the nation’s No. 1 hot spot for the virus; yet on Monday, the state’s education commissioner issued an executive order mandating that all Florida schools open in August with in-person learning and their full suite of student services.

    Many parents are balking at back-to-school, choosing instead to homeschool their children this fall.

    Gratefully, this virus seems to be sparing most children, and prominent medical organizations such as the American Academy of Pediatrics have urged schools to reopen this fall with in-person learning. For some parents, fear of the virus itself is a primary consideration in delaying a child’s return to school, especially if the child has direct contact with individuals who are most vulnerable to COVID-19’s worst effects.

    But for many parents, it’s not the virus they are avoiding by keeping their children home—it’s the response to the virus.

    In May, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued school reopening guidelines that called for:

    • Strict social distancing tactics

    • All-day mask wearing for most students and teachers

    • Staggered attendance

    • Daily health checks

    • No gym or cafetaria use

    • Restricted playground access and limited toy-sharing, and

    • Tight controls on visitors to school buildings, including parents.

    School districts across the country quickly adopted the CDC’s guidelines, devising their reopening plans accordingly. Once parents got wind of what the upcoming school-year would look like, including the real possibility that at any time schools could be shut down again due to virus spikes, they started exploring other options.

    For Florida mother, Rachael Cohen, these social distancing expectations and pandemic response measures prompted her to commit to homeschooling her three children, ages 13, 8, and 5, this fall.

    “Mandated masks, as well as rigid and arbitrary rules and requirements regarding the use and location of their bodies, will serve to dehumanize, disconnect, and intimidate students,” Cohen told me in a recent interview.

    She is endeavoring to expand schooling alternatives in her area and is currently working to create a self-directed learning community for local homeschoolers that emphasizes nature-based, experiential education. “There is quite a lot of interest,” she says.

    According to a recent USA Today/Ipsos poll, 60 percent of parents surveyed said they will likely choose at-home learning this fall rather than send their children to school even if the schools reopen for in-person learning. Thirty percent of parents surveyed said they were “very likely” to keep their children home.

    While some of these parents may opt for an online version of school-at-home tied to their district, many states are seeing a surge in the number of parents withdrawing their children from school in favor of independent homeschooling. From coast to coast, and everywhere in between, more parents are opting out of conventional schooling this year, citing onerous social distancing requirements as a primary reason.

    Indeed, so many parents submitted notices of intent to homeschool in North Carolina last week that it crashed the state’s nonpublic education website.

    Other parents are choosing to delay their children’s school enrollment, with school districts across the country reporting lower than average kindergarten registration numbers this summer.

    School officials are cracking down in response.

    Concerned about declining enrollments and parents reassuming control over their children’s education, some school districts are reportedly trying to block parents from removing their children from school for homeschooling.

    In England, it’s even worse. Government officials there are so worried about parents refusing to send their children back to school this fall that the education secretary just announced fines for all families who keep their children home in violation of compulsory schooling laws. “We do have to get back into compulsory education and obviously fines sit alongside as part of that,” English secretary Gavin Williamson announced.

    When school officials resort to force in order to ensure compliance, it should prompt parents to look more closely at their child’s overall learning environment. Parents have the utmost interest in ensuring their children’s well-being, both physically and emotionally, and their concerns and choices should be respected and honored.

    After several months of learning at home with their children, parents may not be so willing to comply with district directives and may prefer other, more individualized education options. Pushed into homeschooling this spring by the pandemic, many parents are now going willingly, and eagerly, down this increasingly popular educational path.

  • China's Economy Returns To Growth In Q2 But Retail Sales Continue To Contract
    China’s Economy Returns To Growth In Q2 But Retail Sales Continue To Contract

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 22:08

    Judging by the Chinese stock market, Chinese credit impulse data, and Chinese PMIs, tonight’s GDP data should be a big winning rebound proving the communist nation has overcome the viral enemy and is back on its path to global economic domination.

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    Source: Bloomberg

    The “v-shaped” recovery in all the PMIs is rather impressively well managed…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    And Total Social Financing is soaring at a record pace…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    And while trade data rebounded surprisingly in June (as it stepped up efforts to meet the terms of the U.S. trade deal), it remains well down from 2019 in the first six months of 2020, but rebounds are expected to continue to accelerate in all the other macro data released tonight, though most are still expected to be notably lower YoY.

    Going into the data, the upturn in industrial production is the clearest sign that the Chinese economy expanded in 2Q after cratering in 1Q due to the COVID-19 impact, said Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu.

    “Even so, weakness in private and external demand means the pace of growth is likely to be well below historical levels.”

    “Even so, the revival in consumption probably remains a long way off, given changes in behavior to the detriment of contact-intensive services, as well as stress in the labor market and dented incomes.”

    So here’s the data:

    • Q2 China GDP YoY BEAT +3.2% vs +2.4% exp and -6.8% in Q1

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    A much stronger than expected rebound (up a record 11.5% QoQ)…

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    • June China Industrial Production YTD YoY BEAT -1.3% vs -1.5% exp and -2.8% in May

    • June China Retail Sales YTD YoY MISS -11.4% vs -11.2% exp and -13.5% in May

    • June China Fixed Asset Investment YTD YoY BEAT -3.1% vs -3.3% exp and -6.3% in May

    • June China Property Investment YTD YoY BEAT +1.9% vs +1.0% exp and -0.3% in May

    • June China Surveyed Jobless Rate BEAT 5.7% vs 5.9% exp and 5.9% in May

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    So, the good news is that GDP rebounded faster than expected, but the bad news is retail sales continued to contract YoY(-1.8% in June against expectations of a 0.5% expansion)…

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    The biggest disappointment was a contraction in large enterprise retail sales (-0.4% YoY in June vs +1.3% YoY in May) as the rebound stalls.

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    As Bloomberg’s Jeff Black points out, that tells us the recovery is still industry-led, and consumer confidence is still very fragile. That means China’s recovery will be harder to sustain if the world increasingly goes back into lockdown.

    Offshore Yuan is back at 4-month highs…

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    Bloomberg’s Enda Curran notes that one big question remains, is it a rebound or a recovery.

    Sceptics will argue that China’s GDP number will overstate the recovery while others say it reflects the rebound seen in underlying indicators on manufacturing, investment and consumption. But all sides will agree that even if GDP turned positive last quarter, it’s still a long way from a full recovery. We know China’s jobs market is under pressure and we know that the rest of the world remains in a funk. Both of which are clear brakes on China getting back to where it was before the crisis.

    And for those who see tonight’s data and brush it off as implying the next stimulus move is imminent by Chinese officials, Shang-Jin Wei, a China expert at Columbia Business School in New York and formerly chief economist of the Asian Development Bank, warns:

    “Prevention of a return or the ‘second wave’ of the virus outbreak is more important than getting a high growth rate for the remainder of the year.”

    Additionally, with virus second-wave fears and the Trump administration back in sanction mode and seemingly less inclined to support Phase 1 of the trade deal, let alone Phase 2, perhaps the biggest “V” is now behind China; and none of the China growth is helped by an increasing number of runs of China’s banks.

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    And as Bloomberg’s David Ingles notes succinctly, most of the things you’ve seen in the news and will continue to see in the decades to come can be traced back to this one, single chart…

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    This won’t end well.

  • The COVID-19 Panic Shows Us Why Science Needs Skeptics
    The COVID-19 Panic Shows Us Why Science Needs Skeptics

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 21:50

    Authored by Peter St.Onge via The Mises Institute,

    The dumpster fire of COVID predictions has shown exactly why it’s important to sustain and nurture skeptics, lest we blunder into scientific monoculture and groupthink. And yet the explosion of “cancel culture” intolerance of any opinion that doesn’t fit a shrinking “3 x 5 card” of right-think risks destroying the very tolerance and science that sustains our civilization.

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    Since World War II, America has suffered two respiratory pandemics comparable to COVID-19: the 1958 “Asian flu,” then the 1969 “Hong Kong flu.” In neither case did we shut down the economy—people were simply more careful. Not all that careful, of course—Jimi Hendrix was playing at Woodstock in the middle of the 1969 pandemic, and social distancing wasn’t really a thing in the “Summer of Love.”

    And yet COVID-19 was very different thanks to a single “buggy mess” of a computer prediction from one Neil Ferguson, a British epidemiologist given to hysterical overestimates of deaths, from mad cow to bird flu to H1N1.

    For COVID-19, Ferguson predicted 3 million deaths in America unless we basically shut down the economy. Panicked policymakers took his prediction as gospel, dressed as it was in the cloak of science.

    Now, long after governments plunged half the world into a Great Depression, those panicked revisions are being quietly revised down by an order of magnitude, now suggesting a final tally comparable to 1958 and 1969.

    COVID-19 would have been a deadly pandemic with or without Ferguson’s fantasies, but had we known the true scale and parameters of the threat we might have chosen better tailored means to both safeguard the elderly and at-risk, while sustaining the wider economy. After all, economists have long known that mass unemployment and widespread bankruptcies carry enormous health consequences that are very real to the victims suffering drained life savings, ruined businesses, broken families, widespread mental and physical health deterioration, even suicide. Decisions involve tradeoffs.

    COVID-19 has illustrated the importance of free and robust inquiry. After all, panicked politicians facing media accusations of “killing grandma” aren’t in a very good position to evaluate these tradeoffs, and they need intellectual ammunition. Not only to show them which path is best, but to bolster them when a left-wing media establishment attacks.

    Moreover, voters need this ammunition so they can actually tell the politicians what to do. This means two things: debate that is transparent, and debate that is tolerant of skeptics.

    Transparency means data and computer code open to public scrutiny as the minimum requirement for any study that is used to justify policy, from lockdowns to carbon taxes to whatever comes next. These studies must be based on verifiable facts, code that does what it says it does, and the ensuing decision-making process must be transparent and open to the public.

    One former Indian bureaucrat put it well:

    “Emergency situations like this pandemic should require a far higher—and not lower—level of scrutiny,” since policy choices have such tremendous impact.

    “This suggests a need for democracies to strengthen their critical thinking capacity by creating an independent ‘Black Hat’ institution whose purpose would be to question any technical foundations of government decisions.”

    Even more important than transparency, debate must be tolerant of alternative opinions. This means ideas that are wrong, offensive, even dangerous, have to be tolerated, even celebrated. By all means, refute them—most alternative hypotheses are completely wrong, so it shouldn’t be hard to simply refute them without censorship. This, after all, is the essence of science—to generate hypotheses testable by anybody, not just licensed “experts.”

    Whether we are faced with a new crisis, a new policy innovation, or simply designing a better mousetrap, groupthink and censorship are recipes for disaster and stagnation, while transparency and tolerance of new ideas are the very essence of progress. Indeed, it is largely this scientific tolerance that allowed us to rise up from the long, brutal darkness of poverty.

    As Francis Bacon observed three hundred years ago, innovation and new knowledge do not come from prestigious “learned” insiders, rather progress comes from the questioner, the tinkerer, the skeptic.

    The industry of artificers maketh some small improvement of things invented; and chance sometimes in experimenting maketh us to stumble upon somewhat which is new; but all the disputation of the learned never brought to light one effect of nature before unknown. (In Praise of Knowledge, vol. 1, [1740] 1850)

    Indeed, every major scientific advance challenged the “settled science” of its day, and was often denounced as pernicious and false, even dangerous. The modern blood transfusion, for example, was developed in the late 1600s, then banned for nearly a century by a hostile medical establishment, “canceling” tens of millions of lives at the altar of groupthink and hostility to skeptics.

    It’s comforting to know that our problems are old ones, and also encouraging that our solution is both time-tested and simple: transparency and tolerance. After all, the very reason our culture elevates science is because it is built on a millennia-long evolutionary “battle of ideas” in which theories are constantly tested and retested in a delightfully endless search for ever better understanding.

    This implies there is no such thing as “settled science”—the phrase itself is contrary to the scientific method. In reality, science is not some billion-dollar gleaming palace in Bethesda, rather it’s a gnarled mutant sewer rat that takes all comers because it’s been burned, cut, run over, crushed, run through the wood chipper, and survived. That ugly beast is our salvation, not the gleaming palace where we bow down to whichever random guy has the biggest degree in the room.

    Only with free inquiry for the most unpopular, offensive, dangerous, and, yes, wrong ideas imaginable does that power sustain. And if we break that, we can expect a series of rapid catastrophes that, like failed golden ages of the past, return us to the nasty, brutish, and very short lives that have been humanity’s norm.

    Whether pandemic, climate change, “institutional racism,” or whatever new crisis they conjure next, we have a fundamental right to tenaciously defend the transparency and tolerance that constitutes science itself so that it remains among humanity’s crowning achievements, and so that we preserve this golden age that would astound our ancestors.

  • 33-Year-Old Tech CEO's Decapitated, Dismembered Remains Found In NYC Apartment Near Electric Saw
    33-Year-Old Tech CEO’s Decapitated, Dismembered Remains Found In NYC Apartment Near Electric Saw

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 21:30

    The decapitated and dismembered remains of 33-year-old tech CEO Fahim Saleh were found in his Manhattan apartment on Tuesday, according to ABC News (via MSN).

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    Saleh, co-founder of Bangladeshi ride-share app Pathao – and until this week CEO of Nigerian motorcycle ride-sharing company Gokada – was last seen entering his apartment elevator around 1:40 p.m. followed by a man wearing a suit, gloves, hat and mask, who was carrying a briefcase.

    The elevator can be seen arriving on the 7th floor, after which Saleh’s body can be seen falling onto the floor – apparently after being attacked.

    Saleh’s body was found Tuesday afternoon by his sister who was concerned after she had not heard from him for a day. She can be seen in surveillance footage entering the building, but the suspected killer is not seen leaving, leading law enforcement to believe she may have interrupted the act of dismembering, police sources said. There is a second way out of the apartment, through a service entrance, according to the sources. -ABC News

    Saleh’s head and limbs were detached from his torso and found in several large bags nearby, while investigators also recovered an electric saw which was still plugged into an electrical outlet according to law enforcement sources.

    The hitman did not kill Saleh’s dog.

    “Fahim is more than what you are reading. He is so much more. His brilliant and innovative mind took everyone who was a part of his world on a journey and he made sure never to leave anyone behind. Fahim found success at an early age and built on it year after year, while remaining grounded and committed to helping others,” wrote Saleh’s family in a statement. “No matter what he did, he did it while thinking of the greater good and his family.”

    “His parents and his sisters were his light and he was theirs. There are no words or actions to provide any of us comfort except the capture of the person who exhibited nothing short of evil upon our loved one.”

    Gokada confirmed the “sudden and tragic loss” of its founder and CEO via Twitter, calling him “a great leader, inspiration and positive light for all of us.”

    “Our hearts go out to his friends, family and all those feeling the pain and heartbreak we are currently experiencing, here at Gokada,” the company said. “Fahim’s vision and belief in us will be with us forever, and we will miss him dearly. Thank you for understanding as we get through this.”

    In a second statement on its official Instagram Wednesday afternoon, Gokada said it was “shocked and saddened” by the “tragic circumstances” surrounding Saleh’s death. -ABC News

    “Fahim’s passion for Nigeria and its youth was immeasurable. He believed young Nigerians are extremely bright and talented individuals who would flourish if just given the right opportunity. Fahim also believed that technology can transform lives and improve safety and efficiency. He built Gokada to act upon these beliefs,” reads the statement from Gokada. 

  • Chinese Military Exercises Threaten To Invade Taiwan
    Chinese Military Exercises Threaten To Invade Taiwan

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 21:10

    Authored by Lawrence Franklin via The Gatestone Institute,

    China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is currently staging a military exercise across from the Taiwan Strait that looks as if it plans to culminate in an amphibious assault on an island in the South China Sea. Taiwan’s military — evidently fearing, with good reason, that the exercise may be a cover for an actual Chinese plan to seize another island in the region, Pratas (Dongsha), claimed by both the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan — has declared a state of emergency. The PLA exercise also looks as if it is preparing China’s air, naval and marine assets required for an invasion of Taiwan.

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    In 1996, China initiated a similar crisis in the Taiwan Strait by staging an amphibious assault military exercise. After President Bill Clinton deployed two powerful US aircraft carrier-led battle groups, China discontinued its aggressive posture toward Taiwan. Strategic analysts judged that the Chinese decision was the fruit of a realistic assessment that it could not overcome the US ability to defend Taiwan.

    The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), under current Chairman Xi Jinping, appears to be threatening war in a renewed effort to bring Taiwan under Communist Chinese control. The CCP considers Taiwan to be a Chinese province, an integral part of the mainland that ultimately must rejoin it, and the only remaining part of China yet to be returned after the Communists defeated the Nationalists in 1949. For China, it is unfinished business from 70 years ago. China has isolated Taiwan by requiring that all countries who want to have normal diplomatic ties with China must have no state-to-state links with Taiwan. Although the US consents to this diplomatic requirement, it also continues to provide Taiwan with weapon systems, enabling the island to defend itself against any Chinese invasion. US President Donald J. Trump recently authorized the latest sale of US weapons — including advanced heavy torpedoes — to Taiwan. Trump, earlier in his tenure, also approved the sale of anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, Abrams tanks, and F-16 fighter jets.

    Many foreign specialists on China seem to discount the possibility that the Chinese are willing to risk war with the West to subdue Taiwan. Serious consideration should nevertheless be given to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) determination to incorporate the “secessionist” province despite the danger of a conflict, especially if China considers the US distracted by the fallout of the Wuhan coronavirus that China unleashed on the world, and American voter squeamishness before a presidential election in four months.

    The CCP views Taiwan as an existential threat to continued Communist rule in China. Taiwan’s vibrant democracy is the alternate model to the CCP’s totalitarian rule. Despite China’s efforts to cut Taiwan off from the world, the country remains an economically successful and politically free society, less than 90 miles from the Chinese coast.

    Millions of mainland Chinese have visited Taiwan, a practice which could stimulate pressure by Chinese citizens on the Communist regime for liberalizing political reforms. If China assesses that its growing military power could quickly reduce Taiwan’s ability to defend itself or that the West has lost the will to defend the island, CCP Chairman Xi might direct the PLA to launch an invasion.

    China also doubtless took stock of the free world’s obliging passivity the past few weeks as Beijing seized Hong Kong. Not one country lifted a finger to stop them. The move was in explicit violation of China’s 1997 Joint Declaration with the United Kingdom to maintain “one country, two systems” until 2047.

    Presently, China seems to be assessing the West’s resolve to defend Taiwan, while simultaneously attempting to instill fear in the administration of Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. China initiated this latest aggressive posture toward Taiwan shortly after President Tsai’s May 2016 election, possibly anticipating that Taiwan could declare formal independence from China. In recent months, the PLA’s deployment of air and naval assets near Taiwan have been violating the island’s airspace and territorial waters. China’s aggressive moves have included its deployment of Air Force H-6 bombers and SU-30 and J-11 fighter jets. China’s ongoing 79-day military exercise (May 14 – July 31) opposite Taiwan is being orchestrated by the PLA’s Southern Theater of Command, headquartered in Nanning, the capital city of China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in the south. The exercise features the dual deployment of the Chinese Navy’s two aircraft carriers, the Shandong and the Liaoning, just across the narrow Taiwan Strait in China’s Bohai Sea. The exercise is utilizing air-cushioned boats, amphibious assault vehicles, landing barges, and ground attack helicopters. Reportedly, the ongoing PLA military exercise will conclude with an amphibious assault by Chinese Marines upon Woody Island (Yongxing) in the Philippine Sea, south of Taiwan. Woody Island is occupied by Chinese troops is also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam (which calls the island Phu Lam).

    In response to China’s threatening exercise, Major General Lin Wen-Huang, Chief of Taiwan’s Joint Operations, asserted that Taiwan’s military had plans and preparations in place. General Lin, perhaps fearing that the actual target of the PLA amphibious assault is the Taiwan-occupied island of Pratas (Dongsha), 548 kilometers southwest of Taiwan, reinforced the island’s small Coast Guard contingent with hundreds of Taiwanese Marines from the 99th Brigade.

    Taiwan’s armed forces maintain close communication with the US military. In a “cross-strait” confrontation between Taiwan and China, American air and naval assets would be granted complete access to Taiwanese airfields and ports. The Trump Administration, signaling China not to assume dominance in the South and East China Seas, has conducted seven such “Freedom of Navigation” missions through the Taiwan Strait in 2020, and the US Navy has already deployed three aircraft carrier battle groups in the South China Sea.

    China’s Communist leaders should not miscalculate that the US is too immersed in domestic distractions to defend Taiwan militarily against any possible plans to threaten the island’s sovereignty.

  • Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos And Others Hacked In Unprecedented Twitter Attack And Bitcoin Scam; Over $100,000 Stolen In Minutes
    Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos And Others Hacked In Unprecedented Twitter Attack And Bitcoin Scam; Over $100,000 Stolen In Minutes

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 20:55

    Summary:

    • A massive hack which allegedly has originated at a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was, has affected hundreds of billionaires and politicians, including Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bil Gates, Kanye West, Elon Musk, Wiz Khalifa, Apple, Uber, Jeff Bezos, Benjamin Netanyahu
    • Tweets urged people to send money to a Bitcoin address; Over $113,000 has been sent so far
    • Twitter: “We are investigating and taking steps to fix it”
    • For about an hour, Twitter blocked verified account users from sending tweets or resetting their passwords. Unfortunately around 630pm the blue checkmark scourge was back.

    Twitter may or may not be on it… or it could be just the hackers tweeting some more:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Meanwhile, some people are waiting for their money…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And while the situation is slowly getting under control, here is a thought at what may happens next:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While the biggest loser from today’s massive hack was Twitter, the biggest winner was bitcoin and crypto in general. LunarCRUSH – which leverages artificial intelligence and machine learning to analyze cryptocurrency-focused social trends, search behaviors, internet chatter – compiled some data points regarding the Twitter hack. Here’s the interesting data (source: Twitter, Reddit, YouTube, Medium, all News…basically the internet) they found:

    1. For the first time ever, there have been over 550,000 social posts about crypto within 24 hours. This number excludes spam and bots.
    2. At 3 PM PDT today, for the first time ever there were over 100,000 unique individuals on social media posting about / mentioning Bitcoin.
    3. Out of all cryptocurrency-related social posts in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s share of all those posts went as high as 94.48%.
    4. This event has had a little-to-no effect so far for Bitcoin’s price, but TWTR is down in after-hours trading.
    5. Despite this potentially being looked at as a negative event, the negative event was really Twitter. The outcome was all-time high awareness across a much broader set of individuals that have never mentioned Bitcoin before.

    * * *

    Update 2: And Barack Obama now too:

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    The problem for twitter, as it scrambles to figure out what happened, is that this is not an actual hack of individual accounts, but as noted below, reportedly a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was hacked. In other words, someone hacked a Twitter account with access to virtually every other Twitter account. That, if confirmed, would make the epic Sony hack from several years back, seem tiny in comparison.

    * * *

    Update: Joe Biden now too:

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    Incidentally, as this hack continues to propagate among some of the richest and most powerful people in the world, here is how to stop it:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

     

    * * *

    The twitter accounts of some of the world’s richest men, including Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Michael Bloomberg, Jeff Bezos and others, were hacked late on Wednesday, in what appears to be a version of a “Nigerian” bitcoin scam.

    At 440pm ET, Musk tweeted the following:

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    Microsoft founder Bill Gates had a similar tweet.

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    As did Jeff Bezos:

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    Mike Bloomberg felt generous too:

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    Kanye was not spared either:

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    And for a few minutes, Apple was hacked too..

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    … before all of its tweets were promptly deleted.

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    Other, less prominent accounts also seemed to be hacked at around that time, including this one:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Amazingly, in just the few minutes that the hack was active, it appears that over 10 bitcoin, or over $100,000 was sent to the hacker’s address.

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    Naturally, it wasn’t clear who was behind the shocking password breach, but according to the Malware Tech blog, a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was hacked.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Of course, this being twitter, it didn’t take long for humorous hot takes:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Twitter stock is down over 2% after hours as question swirl over just how easy it is to hack some of the world’s most important accounts.

    Needless to say, everyone is eagerly awaiting to see what Trump tweets next…

  • Trump Administration Weighing Travel Ban On Chinese Communist Party Members
    Trump Administration Weighing Travel Ban On Chinese Communist Party Members

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 20:52

    Topping off a day of increasingly aggressive tit-for-tat escalations between the US and China, the NYT reported late on Wednesday that the Trump administration is considering an extensive travel ban to the United States by members of the Chinese Communist Party and their families, a move that would almost certainly prompt retaliation against Americans seeking to enter or remain in China and further exacerbate tensions between the two nations.

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    President Xi Jinping of China at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in May

    Such a ban would be “the most provocative action against China by the United States since the start of the trade war between the two countries in 2018″ and would further deteriorate U.S.-China relations, which after several years of open clashes over economics, technology and global influence have devolved into a de facto new Cold War.

    Additionally, the draft proclamation could revoke the visas of party members and their families who are already in the country, leading to their expulsion. The NYT further adds that some of the proposed language is also aimed at limiting travel to the United States by members of the People’s Liberation Army and executives at state-owned enterprises (even though many of them are likely to also be party members).

    The presidential order would cite the same statute in the Immigration and Nationality Act used in a 2017 travel ban on a number of predominantly Muslim countries that gives the president power to temporarily block travel to the U.S. by foreign nationals who are deemed “detrimental to the interests of the United States.” The 2017 ban was fought in the courts and expanded this year.

    Then again, this being the NYT, the whole report may well be fake news based on a non-existent (or conflicted NSA) source seeking to spark even more conflict in the already strained US-Sino relations, and the paper of records tacitly hints as much saying that “details of the plan have not yet been finalized, and President Trump might ultimately reject it.”

    Assuming Trump is indeed considering such a ban, it wasn’t clear just how such a ban would be implemented: the Chinese Communist Party has 92 million members, and the U.S. government has no knowledge of party status for a vast majority of them. So trying to immediately identify party members to either prevent their entry or expel those already in the United States would be difficult. Meanwhile, almost three million Chinese citizens visited the United States in 2018.

    As the NYT further adds, officials at the White House, State Department and Department of Homeland Security have been involved in the discussion over the ban. Officials at those agencies also continue to debate a variety of formulations for banning Chinese travel to the United States short of barring all party members, such as targeting only the 25 members of the ruling Politburo and their families.

    Ironically, the report follows just hours after another anti-Trump outlet, Bloomberg, reported that the president “doesn’t want to further escalate tensions with Beijing, and has ruled out additional sanctions on top officials for now, according to people familiar with the matter.”

    So which is it: no sanctions or sanction 92 million Chinese communists? It’s safe to say that the truth is somewhere inbetween.

  • ECB Preview : The Calm Before The Storm
    ECB Preview : The Calm Before The Storm

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 20:30

    Submitted by Christopher Dembik, Head of Macro Analysis at Saxo Bank

    Summary:  We are onside with consensus in expecting no change in monetary policy this week. Now the German court challenge has been defused, the ECB can focus on the future of its bond purchases. Technical discussions should concern the likely slowdown in the path of bond purchases this summer, further flexibility in the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase Programme) parameters, and early talks about the Strategy Review that is due next year, especially regarding climate change. The ECB is likely to remain on alert as the second economic wave of the COVID-19, characterized by business restructuring and permanent closures, is about to hit the Eurozone and fragilize the banking sector.

    Timeline of the ECB’s response to the crisis:

    • March 12: The ECB decides to expand its QE programme by €120bn until the end of 2020, with a special focus on private sector bonds, such as corporate bonds, and to offer more favorable terms for the already planned TLTRO III with a rate up to -0.75%.

    • March 18: “Whatever it takes” moment. The ECB unveils its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) of €750bn until the end of 2020 with a high degree of flexibility: the 33% limit DOES NOT apply and the ECB can purchase debt across all the yield curve, including Greek debt under waiver. The QE program reach a total of €1050bn until the end of the year (including previous measures and the relaunch of QE by Draghi in 2019).

    • April 7: The ECB decides a very significant easing of its collateral requirements, including an expansion of eligible credit claims (ACCs) to SME loans, Greek debt (waiver) and a 20% reduction in haircuts.

    • April 22: The ECB accepts some junk-rated debt as collateral for loans to banks (Important caveats: the bonds must be rated as investment grade on April 7).

    • June 4: The ECB increases the €750bn envelope for the PEPP by €600bn to a total of €1350bn. All asset categories eligible under the existing asset purchase programme (APP) are also eligible under the new programme.

    • June 25: The ECB creates a Eurosystem repo facility to provide liquidity in EUR to central banks outside the euro area. This is a precautionary measure to alleviate potential euro funding difficulties due to the pandemic.

    The timely response to the pandemic by the ECB successfully managed to close governments financing gap in the Eurozone. Despite the depth of the recession and the large negative shock to the level of public debt, Italy is able to finance COVID-19 expenses at very low cost, without requesting financial help from the ESM. The 10-year Italy-Germany government bond spread is basically back to pre-COVID levels, at 1.66% versus a crisis peak at 2.77% in mid-March. The ECB’s greatest success is that it has avoided a remake of the 2012 debt crisis, by absorbing almost all new public debt related to the pandemic, and by providing as much liquidity as necessary to the market, thus preventing the emergence of a liquidity crisis. Much bas been said about Christine Lagarde’s appointment as president of the ECB, but we need to recognize, myself included, that we were probably too critical and that she has brilliantly managed the crisis, almost making us forget about Draghi.

    The ECB has managed to “fill the gap” in the Eurozone

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    Now the German Constitutional Court challenge has been defused, the ECB can focus on the future of its bond purchases. Technical discussions are likely to concern:

    • The slowdown in the path of the bond purchases, which usually happens during the summer season (July and August), and might be the main point of interest for investors this week;

    • Further flexibility in the PSPP parameters, especially regarding the 33% issuer limit. This issue needs to be addressed soon as there are many indications that the limits for German government bonds must be quite close.

    • As part of the Strategy Review due in 2021, early talks about how the ECB could help fighting climate change – a topic that has been at the heart of Lagarde’s speeches lately.

    Due to the ECB firepower and hopes for EU deal on the recovery plan “”Next Generation EU” this week at the physical EUCO meeting on July 17 and 18, sentiment of investors has significantly improved over the past weeks regarding European financial assets, and especially the euro. Speculators are betting on a higher euro as they take their long position close to their annual high point, currently at 180,387 contracts. This move also reflects aversion against the USD due to the health crisis in the United States and the impact on the greenback of the Federal Reserve flooding the markets with US dollars. At least in the short term, the euro should keep performing well.

    The ECB’s timely action and hopes for EU deal on budget and recovery plan have driven positive sentiment of investors regarding the euro

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    However, there is no room for complacency. Downside risks remain elevated for the coming months. The ECB is likely to remain on alert as the second economic wave of the COVID-19, characterized by business restructuring and permanent closures, is about to hit the Eurozone and fragilize the banking sector. Though the ECB systemic stress indicator has receded from its annual peak reached in mid-March, it is still in risk-zone territory at 0.21, confirming that further support from the ECB might be needed to limit financial issues that could slow down the recovery. It will be of prime importance to monitor well risks on the banking sector related to payment deferrals, that has been granted to consumers and businesses in order to cope with the crisis. These risks will only become apparent over time and might cause a sharp increase in the ratio of non-performing loans in the most vulnerable countries.

    Euro area systemic stress remains in risk-zone

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  • Civil Unrest
    Civil Unrest

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 20:10

    Authored by Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank

    Civil Unrest

    Summary

    • In contrast to most other developed countries, the first wave of COVID-19 has not been suppressed in the US. Both at the federal and state level institutions are failing.
    • Protests against COVID-19 measures and against racism reflect a lack of trust in US institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. In a polarized society trust in institutions is likely to be vulnerable.
    • No matter who wins the elections, the turbulence in US politics and society is not likely to pass. In fact, what we are seeing now may be only the beginning.

    First wave failure

    In the last months we have seen the US taking a descent into chaos. In contrast to most other developed countries, the first wave of COVID-19 has not been suppressed. In fact, in June the daily amount of new confirmed cases surpassed the initial peak reached in April. At the same time, a coherent federal plan to turn this around seems lacking. At the state level, economies have been reopened before meeting the criteria set out earlier by the White House. At the individual level, we have seen many protests against measures to contain the virus.

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    Stop the killing

    Meanwhile, protests of another nature have taken over the streets. The endless series of police killings finally sparked a national outrage when images of the Minneapolis police murdering George Floyd were seen around the world. Of course this was nothing new. In fact, over the years many black Americans have lost their lives at the hands of the police. In most cases, the police got away with it. However, in this age of smartphones with cameras and social media, white Americans finally saw what black Americans experience.

    Earlier during the coronacrisis, the second rate US citizenship of black Americans was evident in the asymmetric impact of COVID-19 that we noted in the April Monthly Outlook. According to CDC data (Table 1) black Americans have a COVID-19 associated hospitalization rate almost 5 times that of white Americans, adjusted for age. In fact, for native Americans this ratio is even higher. Living conditions, work circumstances and healthcare inequities put several ethnic minority groups at increased risk during COVID-19 according to the CDC.

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    V or W?

    In sharp contrast to the widely broadcast civil unrest, stock markets have rebounded rapidly and the economic data for May and June suggest that the real economy is following. However, we should note that the recovery in the stock markets did not start until after the Fed had cut rates to zero, announced QE Infinity and launched its special lending facilities, which included corporate bonds. The recovery in the real economy follows a sharp contraction caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 and the lockdown that followed. The decline in economic activity in March and April was so steep that it caused both Q1 and Q2 GDP growth to be negative. The rebound we are now seeing is simply the effect of opening up the economy again. This is a mechanical rebound, and as we explained in The Recession of 2020: The Horror Version, we will have to wait until Q4 before we could see demand fluctuations determine GDP growth again. Then we will see how much damage really has been done.

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    Crumbling institutions

    So at the moment there is this sharp contrast between the economic data and stock price levels on the Bloomberg screens and the images and discussions on TV. Note that both types of protests we mentioned, against COVID-19 measures and against racism, reflect a lack of trust in US institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. In fact, data collected by the Pew Center show that trust in the federal government has fallen since the mid-1960s. In terms of economics, institutions are not working for Americans, unless you are one of the 1%. In terms of civil rights, institutions have failed black Americans and native Americans in particular.

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    Polarization

    What’s more, in a polarized society trust in institutions is likely to be vulnerable. US politics has become polarized. Today, liberals vote for the Democrats and conservatives for the Republicans. This was not always the case however. In the 1950s there were liberals and conservatives in both parties. In fact, while many millennials regard the Democratic party as a beacon of political correctness, this party was a broad coalition that included Southern segregationists (= white supremacists) until the 1960s. Also, both in the Senate and the House of Representatives a higher percentage of Republicans voted for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 than Democrats. However, when Southern Democrats started to switch to the Republican Party after the Civil Rights Act, Northern liberals switched to the Democratic Party and this led to the sorting of liberals and conservatives between the two parties. Subsequently, the two parties were also sorted by race, religion and geography. This sorting process was a prelude to the polarization between the two parties. Political affiliation became part of someone’s identity. This also led to an increased aversion to the other party. The tone between the left and the right has become increasingly hostile. In light of this the polarization that we have seen in recent years is not caused by Trump, rather it is the other way around. The election of Trump is a consequence of this historical process. Polarization made it possible.

    Moreover, polarization is even visible in opinions about the coronavirus outbreak (Table 2). With a lack of direction from the federal government, this makes a coherent national policy to get the outbreak under control very difficult.

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    Only the beginning?

    The question is where does the US go from here? If President Trump is re-elected, he will be at the wheel for four more years, but this time without any restrictions imposed by concerns about re-election. If Biden takes the White House, federal policies will shift to the left again (for more details see the May Monthly Outlook). But will this lead to renewed trust in institutions? Perhaps for some on the left, but what about the rest? In a heavily polarized country, there is little common ground. Meanwhile, if right-wing populism is expelled from the White House, this does not mean it is going to disappear. It will only reorganize. Hopefully in the political arena, but we could also see another boost to violent right-wing extremism. In fact, right-wing attacks and plots account for the majority of terrorist incidents in the US since the mid-1990s. In the last six years, this has grown substantially (Figure 4). So no matter who wins the elections, the turbulence in US politics and society is not likely to pass. In fact, what we are seeing now may be only the beginning.

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  • Philly Mayor's Ban On Large Events "Does Not Apply" To Protests Or "Demonstrations"
    Philly Mayor’s Ban On Large Events “Does Not Apply” To Protests Or “Demonstrations”

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 19:50

    Authored by Nicholas Bailey via JustTheNews.com,

    Philadelphia Democratic Mayor James Kenney says his city-wide ban on large events and gatherings through February 2021 does not apply to protests.

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    “The city’s office of special events will not accept, review, process or approve applications, issue permits or enter into agreements for special events or public gatherings of 50 people or more on public property through the end of February. The moratorium will apply to special events and public gatherings, including but not limited to festivals, parades, concerts, carnivals, fairs and flea markets,” Kenney said during a coronavirus video update on Tuesday.

    “In addition, permit applications for residential block permits will not be accepted until further notice. The timeline when such activities may resume will be communicated as soon as possible. To be clear, this hold on large public events does not, does not apply to demonstrations and First Amendment protected activities,” he added.

    Just the News reached out to the mayor’s office to learn whether the city will issue formal permits for protests or demonstrations on municipal property during the large-event ban. The office did not respond before publication.

    There have been many Black Lives Matter protests taking place in cities across the U.S. during the pandemic since the May 25 death of George Floyd while in the custody of Minneapolis police. Some demonstrations have resulted in destructive protests marked by looting, vandalism and removal of statues from public grounds. 

    According to local media reports, Kenney recently waived “all protest-related code violations that were issued over the last month of protests in Philadelphia against systemic racial injustice.”

    “My decision to waive these violations is not a statement on the validity of the individual citations,” Kenney said in a statement.

    “Rather, it is a recognition of the core concerns that caused thousands to demonstrate on the streets of Philadelphia. In waiving these notices, I recognize that those issues are vitally important, that the pain of those marching is very real, and that their message – Black lives matter – needs to be heard every day until systemic racism is fully eradicated from this city and nation.”

  • China Rocked By "Unprecedented" Surge In Bank Runs
    China Rocked By “Unprecedented” Surge In Bank Runs

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 19:30

    At first, it was an unthinkable taboo – after all with a banking system that’s twice as large as that of the US, the last thing Beijing wanted (or could afford) was doubts that the people’s trillions in savings were safe as the alternative was not just a collapse of the financial sector but a breach of China’s capital controls firewall as tens of millions scrambled to move their savings abroad, in the process obliterating the yuan. Then, starting in early 2019 after several banks quietly failed or were not so quietly nationalized

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    … most notably the inner-Mongolia-based Baoshang Bank which was seized in the first state takeover since 1998, domestic confidence in China’s banking system was suddenly – and perhaps irreparably – shaken, leading to scattered scenes such as these as depositor runs hammered several  Chinese banks , forcing Beijing to unleash unprecedented damage control (and internet censorship) to keep the illusion that all is well.

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    Customers form lines in front of Yichuan bank; photo: WSJ

     

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    Zhang Yanting, a 51-year-old farmer, walked away with a wad of cash from his savings account at Yichuan Bank

    Fast forward to today, when a confluence of the adverse trends that emerged in 2018 and 2019, coupled with the historic economic slowdown in China’s economy, and accelerated by social media-fueled rumors about collapsing banks have sparked what Bloomberg called an “unprecedented” surge of bank runs, forcing regulators and even the police to step in to calm depositors.

    According to Bloomberg, in just the past few weeks, worried savers have descended on three banks to withdraw funds amid rumors of cash shortages that were later dismissed as false.

    Over the weekend customers rushed to a bank in the northern Hebei province to take out money, prompting local regulators to publicly vouch for the soundness of its lenders as the police halted the run.

    Indeed, as Bloomberg adds, “after several bailouts and the first bank seizure in more than two decades last year, the coronavirus outbreak and its economic fallout have exacerbated an already shaky situation in the world’s largest banking system” leading to a sharp erosion of confidence in the $43 trillion banking system among the nation’s more than 1 billion account holders, threatening a cornerstone of China’s rise into an economic powerhouse.

    “The perception Chinese savers had of banks being risk free is changing even though in nearly all recent cases their deposits have been protected,” said China International Capital Corp analyst Zhang Shuaishuai.

    “Once a rumor like this spreads, it brings immediate liquidity risk to a bank.”

    There is probably a reason for why these “rumors” have led to such a dramatic response: they merely bring to the surface whatever most already know, namely that behind its sterling facade, China’s banking system is rotten to the core, with lies upon lies about trillions in non-performing loans…

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    .. coupled with growing risks from billions parked at China’s unregulated and unstable shadow banking system (best known recently for stories such as this one “Anxin Trust’s $7 Billion Investment Black Hole“)

    While regular readers are all too familiar with the story, Bloomberg recaps quickly why it is so crucial for Beijing to preserve the illusions that Chinese savings are sacrosanct and why bank runs can never take hold:

    For decades, deposit-taking has provided a stable and low-cost funding base for China’s financial market, playing a key part in the rise of its economy to the second largest in the world. Chinese households hold about 90 trillion yuan ($13 trillion) of bank deposits, more than anywhere else in the world. 

    China’s increasingly shaky banking system has also been cited as one of the reasons why Beijing has been aggressively seeking to blow another stock market bubble in hopes it leads to fund flows away from bank savings accounts: after all, it’s politically safer and more palatable to store funds in capital markets rather than in banks, which are looking increasingly shaky by the day. Ultimately, if faced with a decision between another stock bubble-bust cycle, or a loss of confidence in its banks, Beijing will always pick the former.

    In any case, regulators are now not only seeking to soothe nerves publicly, but are also raising the protection to preserve this cushion for banks. The run in Hebei came after authorities kicked off a pilot program to limit large transactions in the province. The two-year program, which Bloomberg explains is set to be expanded to Zhejiang and Shenzhen in October to encompass 70 million people, would require retail clients to pre-report any large withdrawals or deposits of 100,000 yuan ($14,000) to 300,000 yuan.

    That could be problematic to say the least in a country whose own banking regulator, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, on Saturday again warned that lenders are facing a surge in bad debt as the economy sputters at its slowest pace in four decades.

    While stopgap measures, which have included rolling over debt and delaying loan payments, have limited an immediate surge in bad debt, the regulator said the fundamental issues of poorly managed banks and the deteriorating ability of companies and individuals to repay loans are still far from solved. They are also asking banks to forgo 1.5 trillion yuan in profit this year by offering lower lending rates, cutting fees, deferring loan repayments, and granting more unsecured loans to small businesses to help the economy.

    Alas for China’s regulators, they are facing an uphill battle: with authorities overseeing more than 3,000 banks, most of which are small, rural entities without ready access to capital, their job equates to whack-a-mole – the moment they stop one bank run, several new ones take its place. And so, in another unprecedented move, China now plans to allow local governments to use about 200 billion yuan from bond sales to help smaller banks replenish their capital.

    It gets worse.

    According to S&P, China’s industry may suffer a whopping 8 trillion yuan increase in bad debt this year. Even without this balance sheet “neutron bomb” small banks are facing a $349 billion shortfall in capital, according to UBS analysts, leading to even more small bank failures. Putting that figure at only $50 billion, the regulator said the shortfall could mean slower profit growth or even sliding profits at some institutions.

    Meanwhile corporate bonds are also suffering, adding further pressure on banks and hurting corporate funding. According to Bloomberg data, about 80 billion yuan worth of Chinese bonds defaulted on and offshore so far this year, the most in at least three years.

    The result of all this, predictably, has been a collapse in confidence in Chinese banks and its logical next step: bank runs.

    In the most recent episodes, authorities stepped in last month to halt banks runs at two local lenders in Hebei and Shanxi. On July 11, savers rushed to withdraw money from Hengshui Bank, also based in Hebei, before the police put a stop to it.

    In response, the local offices of the People’s Bank of China and the CBIRC did what China does best: they scrambled to preserve confidence in the system, saying in a joint statement that Hengshui Bank and its branches are legitimate financial entities where any savings under half a million yuan are protected under China’s deposit insurance regulation. They also reassured depositors that their money is safe and urged them not to “blindly” withdraw savings.

    In fact, they also urged them not to withdraw savings at all.

    When that did not work, police took people into custody, issuing reprimands to those spreading rumors, according to the statement.

    Meanwhile, as Bloomberg adds, Hengshui Bank said in an emailed reply on Wednesday that the city government is actively dealing with the issue and called for less publicity for fear the incident leads to regional systemic risks.  In other words, China is now aggressively censoring any online media that discusses China’s questionably solvent banks.

    Knowing this won’t work, regulators have been working on a plan since last year that would see more small banks merge to shore up their strength, but so far little of that effort has come to fruition.

    “China has too many banks,” said Zhang. “Quite a few of them are weak in corporate governance and earnings capacity. A better option is to take a more proactive approach to restructuring those regional banks.” He is, of course, correct, however any restructuring would require taking a very risk first step of admitting banks have a big problem, and with China having swept up its bank problems under the rug for years, it is anybody’s guess how the world’s largest depositor base reacts on learning that its money resides in the world’s biggest house of cards.

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Today’s News 15th July 2020

  • The Future Of Remote Work, According To Startups
    The Future Of Remote Work, According To Startups

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 02:45

    No matter where in the world you log in from—Silicon Valley, London, and beyond—COVID-19 has triggered a mass exodus from traditional office life. Now that the lucky among us have settled into remote work, many are left wondering if this massive, inadvertent work-from-home experiment will change work for good.

    In the following charts, Visual Capitalist’s Theresa A.G. Wood features data from a comprehensive survey conducted by UK-based startup network Founders Forum, in which hundreds of founders and their teams revealed their experiences of remote work and their plans for a post-pandemic future.

    While the future remains a blank page, it’s clear that hundreds of startups have no plans to hit backspace on remote work.

    Who’s Talking

    Based primarily in the UK, almost half of the survey participants were founders, and nearly a quarter were managers below the C-suite.

    Prior to pandemic-related lockdowns, 94% of those surveyed had worked from an external office. Despite their brick-and-mortar setup, more than 90% were able to accomplish the majority of their work remotely.

    Gen X and Millennials made up most of the survey contingent, with nearly 80% of respondents with ages between 26-50, and 40% in the 31-40 age bracket.

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    From improved work-life balance and productivity levels to reduced formal teamwork, these entrepreneurs flagged some bold truths about what’s working and what’s not.

    Founders With A Remote Vision

    If history has taught us anything, it’s that world events have the potential to cause permanent mass change, like 9/11’s lasting impact on airport security.

    Although most survey respondents had plans to be back in the office within six months, those startups are rethinking their remote work policies as a direct result of COVID-19.

    How might that play out in a post-pandemic world?

    Based on the startup responses, a realistic post-pandemic work scenario could involve 3 to 5 days of remote work a week, with a couple dedicated in-office days for the entire team.

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    Upwards of 92% of respondents said they wanted the option to work from home in some capacity.

    It’s important to stay open to learning and experimenting with new ways of working. The current pandemic has only accelerated this process. We’ll see the other side of this crisis, and I’m confident it will be brighter.

    – Evgeny Shadchnev, CEO, Makers Academy

    Productivity Scales at Home

    Working from home hasn’t slowed down these startups—in fact, it may have improved overall productivity in many cases.

    More than half of the respondents were more productive from home, and 55% also reported working longer hours.

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    Blurred lines, however, raised some concerns.

    From chores and rowdy children to extended hours, working from home often makes it difficult to compartmentalize. As a result, employers and employees may have to draw firmer lines between work and home in their remote policies, especially in the long term.

    Although the benefits appear to outweigh the concerns, these issues pose important questions about our increasingly remote future.

    Teams Reveal Some Intel

    To uncover some work-from-home easter eggs (“Better for exercise. MUCH more pleasant environment”), we grouped nearly 400 open-ended questions according to sentiment and revealed some interesting patterns.

    From serendipitous encounters and beers with colleagues to more formal teamwork, an overwhelming number of the respondents missed the camaraderie of team interactions.

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    It was clear startups did not miss the hours spent commuting every day. During the pandemic, those hours have been replaced by family time, work, or other activities like cooking healthy meals and working out.

    Remote working has been great for getting us through lockdown—but truly creative work needs the magic of face to face interaction, not endless Zoom calls. Without the serendipity and chemistry of real-world encounters, the world will be a far less creative place.

    – Rohan Silva, CEO, Second Home

    The Future Looks Remote

    This pandemic has delivered a new normal that’s simultaneously challenging and revealing. For now, it looks like a new way of working is being coded into our collective software.

    What becomes of the beloved open-office plan in a pandemic-prepped world remains to be seen, but if these startups are any indication, work-life may have changed for good.

  • Hagia Sophia And Turkey's Supremacism
    Hagia Sophia And Turkey’s Supremacism

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Burak Bekdil via The Gatestone Institute,

    According to his fans and political allies, Turkey’s Islamist president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, conquered Istanbul for the second time when he signed a decree to convert the monumental Hagia Sophia cathedral in Istanbul, built in 537, into a mosque. With that logic, he became the first statesman who conquered a city that already belongs to his country.

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    “First, you should fill Sultanahmet (Blue Mosque, Istanbul) … This is a plot, this is sheer provocation,” Erdoğan told a crowd as recently as in March 2019 when party fans demanded the conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque. He was right. Most of Istanbul’s nearly 3,000 mosques (one mosque per 5,000 population) do not attract crowds. Sixteen months later, Erdoğan changed his mind.

    In this theater-like play, he said the supreme court would decide on the fate of Hagia Sophia. Under a constitutional amendment in 2010, Erdoğan won the authority to appoint all members of that court, the Council of State. Erdoğan said he would respect the court’s verdict in “whichever direction it comes.”

    And, unsurprisingly, the verdict came in the direction Erdoğan wanted: On July 9, the Council of State decided to void a cabinet decision, signed in 1934 by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey, designating Hagia Sophia as a museum, in a show of respect for Christianity. Only an hour after the verdict was announced, Erdoğan signed a decree for the conversion into a mosque of the monument on UNESCO’s World Heritage List.

    Hagia Sophia Timeline

    • 537: Byzantine Emperor Justinian I builds Hagia Sophia as a cathedral in then Constantinople.

    • 1453: Ottoman Sultan Mehmet II (Mehmet the Conqueror) converts Hagia Sophia into a mosque after taking Constantinople from the Byzantines.

    • 1453-1934: Hagia Sophia remains a mosque.

    • June 7, 1931: The cabinet of the infant Turkish Republic signs a decree for the restoration of priceless mosaic frescoes at Hagia Sophia. The decree gave the job to Thomas Whittemore, an American Byzantine specialist.

    • Aug. 25, 1934: Turkish Education Minister Abidin Özmen writes a letter to Prime Minister İsmet İnönü to inform him that he had received a verbal order from Atatürk for the conversion of Hagia Sophia into a museum.

    • Nov. 24, 1934: The Turkish cabinet signs a decree that “un-mosques” Hagia Sophia.

    • 1980: Turkish Prime Minister Süleyman Demirel allows Muslim prayers at an annex of Hagia Sophia.

    • 1981: The military junta bans Muslim prayers at Hagia Sophia.

    • 1991: Prime Minister Süleyman Demirel re-opens the annex to Muslim prayers.

    • 2005-2020: The Council of State rejects three applications for the conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque.

    • July 9, 2020: The Council of State rules in favor of the fourth application to make Hagia Sophia a mosque.

    • July 24, 2020: Hagia Sophia will open as a mosque, with a Greek name and Orthodox frescoes on its walls.

    Erdoğan comes from the ranks of political Islam, which made its debut in Turkey in the late 1960s – and was not then on the global radar. In the 1970s, Islamists of all flavors, including Erdoğan’s mentor, Turkey’s first Islamist prime minister, Necmettin Erbakan, made the “Hagia Sophia Mosque” a symbol of the completion of Istanbul’s conquest. The iconic church also became a symbol in the Islamists’ fight against Atatürk’s secularism.

    Why now? Erdoğan possibly thought the move could reverse the ongoing erosion of his popularity due, among others, to a looming economic crisis. All the same, it appears to be wrongly timed, as presidential and parliamentary elections are three years from now and Turks are notorious for not having a good memory. Praying at the Hagia Sophia Mosque will not turn a hungry man into a happy man.

    The conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque has once again underlined the insane racism of the majority in Turkey against the sanity of a dwindling minority.

    One Muslim theologian, Cemil Kılıç, argued against the decision: “This is against the Quranic commandments,” he said. “Prophet Mohammed never converted a Jewish or Christian house of prayer into a mosque.”

    His voice came against an abundance of racist comments on social media:

    • “Jewish and Christian bastards will now understand who we are.”

    • “Erdoğan is correcting what Jewish, Shabbetaist (Jews who converted to Islam), atheist crowds have done in the past century.”

    • “You Jews, are you having fun?”

    • “Day of mourning for Crusaders and Jewish converts.”

    • “Cry, you Greeks! And wait for your turn, you Jews!”

    • “Sad day for Zionists.”

    • “A Shabbetaist Jew from Thessaloniki [Ataturk, born in Thessaloniki] closed it [to Muslim prayers] and man from Black Sea (Erdogan) opened it.”

    • “You Jewish dogs, it will come to Al-Aqsa Mosque [in Jerusalem] too.”

    This much of national sentiment reflects sheer ignorance, a hatred for “the religious other,” a self-isolationist thinking and a century-long desire to challenge all things non-Turkish, with an emphasis on “the Jew.” An Islamist leader decides to convert a monumental cathedral into a mosque, and his fans, are spilling out hatred against Jews. This is Turkey’s new normal.

  • Don't Look Now, But This Airline Just Cancelled All International Flights Until March 2021 Due To COVID
    Don’t Look Now, But This Airline Just Cancelled All International Flights Until March 2021 Due To COVID

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 07/15/2020 – 01:00

    The prospects for a V-shaped recovery in airlines are looking dim. The latest indication of how slow things are getting back to normal in the industry is Australian-based Qantas Airlines pulling all of its international flights off its website this week. 

    The airline is cancelling routes to New Zealand until September 1 and flights to other international destinations have been cancelled until March 28, 2021 – nearly another year away – according to the Daily Mail

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    “All international and sale flights have been removed from the website until further notice due to the coronavirus pandemic,” a spokesperson for the airline said. “There are some international flights in the system but they are not currently operating.”

    Flights are still available through the airline’s partner airlines like Emirates, British Airways and Cathay Pacific. But Qantas wants to prevent new bookings from being made on its own airline. Flights that have already been booked will proceed as planned. 

    The move comes weeks after the airline cut 6,000 jobs, representing 20% of its workforce. The company’s CEO has also predicted that international flights wouldn’t resume until July 2021. 

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    “We have never experienced anything like this before – no-one has. All airlines are in the biggest crisis our industry has ever faced,” he said last month. “Revenues have collapsed, entire fleets are grounded and the world biggest carriers are taking extreme action just to survive.”

    The decision to halt international flights comes after the airline’s decision to also ground its double decker A380 planes for at least three years and to retire six Boeing 747s. 

    Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said in June that Australia’s borders would probably remain closed for another 4 months.

  • America, You've Been Blacklisted: McCarthyism Refashioned For A New Age
    America, You’ve Been Blacklisted: McCarthyism Refashioned For A New Age

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 23:50

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “If we confuse dissent with disloyalty—if we deny the right of the individual to be wrong, unpopular, eccentric or unorthodox—if we deny the essence of racial equality then hundreds of millions in Asia and Africa who are shopping about for a new allegiance will conclude that we are concerned to defend a myth and our present privileged status. Every act that denies or limits the freedom of the individual in this country costs us the confidence of men and women who aspire to that freedom and independence of which we speak and for which our ancestors fought.”

    – Edward R. Murrow

    For those old enough to have lived through the McCarthy era, there is a whiff of something in the air that reeks of the heightened paranoia, finger-pointing, fear-mongering, totalitarian tactics that were hallmarks of the 1950s.

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    Back then, it was the government – spearheaded by Senator Joseph McCarthy and the House Un-American Activities Committee – working in tandem with private corporations and individuals to blacklist Americans suspected of being communist sympathizers.

    By the time the witch hunts carried out by federal and state investigative agencies drew to a close, thousands of individuals (the vast majority of them innocent any crime whatsoever) had been accused of communist ties, investigated, subpoenaed and blacklisted. Regarded as bad risks, the accused were blacklisted, and struggled to secure employment. The witch hunt ruined careers, resulting in suicides, and tightened immigration to exclude alleged subversives.

    Seventy years later, the vitriol, fear-mongering and knee-jerk intolerance associated with McCarthy’s tactics are once again being deployed in a free-for-all attack by those on both the political Left and Right against anyone who, in daring to think for themselves, subscribes to ideas or beliefs that run counter to the government’s or mainstream thought.

    It doesn’t even seem to matter what the issue is anymore (racism, Confederate monuments, Donald Trump, COVID-19, etc.): modern-day activists are busily tearing down monuments, demonizing historic figures, boycotting corporations for perceived political transgressions, and using their bully pulpit to terrorize the rest of the country into kowtowing to their demands.

    All the while, the American police state continues to march inexorably forward.

    This is how fascism, which silences all dissenting views, prevails.

    The silence is becoming deafening.

    After years of fighting in and out of the courts to keep their 87-year-old name, the NFL’s Washington Redskins have bowed to public pressure and will change their name and team logo to avoid causing offense. The new name, not yet announced, aims to honor both the military and Native Americans.

    Eleanor Holmes Norton, a delegate to the House of Representatives who supports the name change, believes the team’s move “reflects the present climate of intolerance to names, statues, figments of our past that are racist in nature or otherwise imply racism [and] are no longer tolerated.”

    Present climate of intolerance, indeed.

    Yet it wasn’t a heightened racial conscience that caused the Redskins to change their brand. It was the money. The team caved after its corporate sponsors including FedEx, PepsiCo, Nike and Bank of America threatened to pull their funding.

    So much for that U.S. Supreme Court victory preventing the government from censoring trademarked names it considers distasteful or scandalous.

    Who needs a government censor when the American people are already doing such a great job at censoring themselves and each other, right?

    Now there’s a push underway to boycott Goya Foods after its CEO, Robert Unanue, praised President Trump during a press conference to announce Goya’s donation of a million cans of Goya chickpeas and a million other food products to American food banks as part of the president’s Hispanic Prosperity Initiative.

    Mind you, Unanue—whose grandfather emigrated to the U.S. from Spain—also praised the Obamas when they were in office, but that kind of equanimity doesn’t carry much weight in this climate of intolerance.

    Not to be outdone, the censors are also taking aim at To Kill a Mockingbird, Harper Lee’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel about Atticus Finch, a white lawyer in the Jim Crow South who defends a black man falsely accused of rape. Sixty years after its debut, the book remains a powerful testament to moral courage in the face of racial bigotry and systemic injustice, told from the point of view of a child growing up in the South, but that’s not enough for the censors. They want to axe the book—along with The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn—from school reading curriculums because of the presence of racial slurs that could make students feel “humiliated or marginalized.”

    Never mind that the N-word makes a regular appearance in hip-hop songs. The prevailing attitude seems to be that it’s okay to use the N-word as long as the person saying the word is not white. Rapper Kendrick Lamar “would like white America to let black people exclusively have the word.”

    Talk about a double standard.

    This is also the overlooked part of how oppression becomes systemic: it comes about as a result of a combined effort between the populace, the corporations and the government.

    McCarthyism worked the same way.

    What started with Joseph McCarthy’s headline-grabbing scare tactics in the 1950s about Communist infiltrators of American society snowballed into a devastating witch hunt once corporations and the American people caught the fever.

    McCarthyism was a contagion, like the plague, spreading like wildfire among people too fearful or weak or gullible or paranoid or greedy or ambitious to denounce it for what it was: an opportunistic scare tactic engineered to make the government more powerful.

    McCarthy, a young Republican senator, grasped the opportunity to make a name for himself by capitalizing on the Cold War paranoia of the time. In a speech in February 1950, McCarthy claimed to have a list of over 200 members of the Communist Party “working and shaping the policy of the U.S. State Department.” The speech was picked up by the Associated Press, without substantiating the facts, and within a few days the hysteria began.

    McCarthy specialized in sensational and unsubstantiated accusations about Communist infiltration of the American government, particularly the State Department. He also targeted well-known Hollywood actors and directors, trade unionists and teachers. Many others were brought before the inquisitional House Committee on Un-American Activities for questioning.

    “McCarthyism” eventually smeared all the accused with the same broad brush, whether the evidence was good, bad or nonexistent.

    The parallels to the present movement cannot be understated.

    Even now, with modern-day McCarthyism sweeping the nation and America’s own history being blacklisted, I have to wonder what this sudden outrage and crisis of conscience is really all about.

    Certainly, anyone who believes that the injustices, cruelties and vicious callousness of the U.S. government are unique to the Trump Administration has not been paying attention.

    No matter what the team colors might be at any given moment, the playbook remains the same. The leopard has not changed its spots.

    Scrape off the surface layers and you will find that the American police state that is continuing to wreak havoc on the rights of the people under the Trump Administration is the same police state that wreaked havoc on the rights of the people under every previous administration.

    So please spare me the media hysterics and the outrage and the hypocritical double standards of those whose moral conscience appears to be largely dictated by their political loyalties.

    While we squabble over which side is winning this losing battle, a tsunami approaches.

    While the populace wages war over past injustices, injustice in the here and now continues to trample innocent lives underfoot. Certainly, little of significance is being done to stem the tide of institutional racism that has resulted in disproportionate numbers of black Americans who continue to be stopped, frisked, shot at, arrested and jailed.

    I’ve had enough of the short- and long-term amnesia that allows political sycophants to conveniently forget the duplicity, complicity and mendacity of their own party while casting blame on everyone else.

    When you drill right down to the core of things, the policies of a Trump Administration have been no different from an Obama Administration or a Bush Administration, at least not where it really counts.

    In other words, Democrats by any other name have been Republicans, and vice versa.

    War has continued. Surveillance has continued. Drone killings have continued. Police shootings have continued. Highway robbery meted out by government officials has continued. Corrupt government has continued. Profit-driven prisons have continued. Censorship and persecution of anyone who criticizes the government have continued. The militarization of the police has continued. The devastating SWAT team raids have continued. The government’s efforts to label dissidents as extremists and terrorists has continued.

    The more things change, the more they have stayed the same.

    We’ve been stuck in this political Groundhog’s Day for so long that minor deviations appear to be major developments while obscuring the fact that we’re stuck on repeat, unable to see the forest for the trees.

    This is what is referred to as creeping normality, or a death by a thousand cuts.

    It’s a concept invoked by Pulitzer Prize-winning scientist Jared Diamond to describe how major changes, if implemented slowly in small stages over time, can be accepted as normal without the shock and resistance that might greet a sudden upheaval.

    Diamond’s concerns related to Easter Island’s now-vanished civilization and the societal decline and environmental degradation that contributed to it, but it’s a powerful analogy for the steady erosion of our freedoms and decline of our country right under our noses.

    As Diamond explains, “In just a few centuries, the people of Easter Island wiped out their forest, drove their plants and animals to extinction, and saw their complex society spiral into chaos and cannibalism… Why didn’t they look around, realize what they were doing, and stop before it was too late? What were they thinking when they cut down the last palm tree?”

    His answer: “I suspect that the disaster happened not with a bang but with a whimper.”

    Much like America’s own colonists, Easter Island’s early colonists discovered a new world—“a pristine paradise”—teeming with life. Yet almost 2000 years after its first settlers arrived, Easter Island was reduced to a barren graveyard by a populace so focused on their immediate needs that they failed to preserve paradise for future generations.

    The same could be said of the America today: it, too, is being reduced to a barren graveyard by a populace so focused on their immediate needs that they are failing to preserve freedom for future generations.

    In Easter Island’s case, as Diamond speculates:

    The forest…vanished slowly, over decades. Perhaps war interrupted the moving teams; perhaps by the time the carvers had finished their work, the last rope snapped. In the meantime, any islander who tried to warn about the dangers of progressive deforestation would have been overridden by vested interests of carvers, bureaucrats, and chiefs, whose jobs depended on continued deforestation… The changes in forest cover from year to year would have been hard to detect… Only older people, recollecting their childhoods decades earlier, could have recognized a difference. Gradually trees became fewer, smaller, and less important. By the time the last fruit-bearing adult palm tree was cut, palms had long since ceased to be of economic significance. That left only smaller and smaller palm saplings to clear each year, along with other bushes and treelets. No one would have noticed the felling of the last small palm.

    Sound painfully familiar yet?

    We’ve already torn down the rich forest of liberties established by our founders. It has vanished slowly, over the decades. Those who warned against the dangers posed by too many laws, invasive surveillance, militarized police, SWAT team raids and the like have been silenced and ignored. They stopped teaching about freedom in the schools. Few Americans know their history. And even fewer seem to care that their fellow Americans are being jailed, muzzled, shot, tasered, and treated as if they have no rights at all.

    The erosion of our freedoms happened so incrementally, no one seemed to notice. Only the older generations, remembering what true freedom was like, recognized the difference. Gradually, the freedoms enjoyed by the citizenry became fewer, smaller and less important. By the time the last freedom falls, no one will know the difference.

    This is how tyranny rises and freedom falls: with a thousand cuts, each one justified or ignored or shrugged over as inconsequential enough by itself to bother, but they add up.

    Each cut, each attempt to undermine our freedoms, each loss of some critical right—to think freely, to assemble, to speak without fear of being shamed or censored, to raise our children as we see fit, to worship or not worship as our conscience dictates, to eat what we want and love who we want, to live as we want—they add up to an immeasurable failure on the part of each and every one of us to stop the descent down that slippery slope.

    We are on that downward slope now.

    The contagion of fear that McCarthy helped spread with the help of government agencies, corporations and the power elite is still poisoning the well, whitewashing our history, turning citizen against citizen, and stripping us of our rights.

    What we desperately need is the kind of resolve embodied by Edward R. Murrow, the most-respected newsman of his day.

    On March 9, 1954, Murrow dared to speak truth to power about the damage McCarthy was inflicting on the American people. His message remains a timely warning for our age.

    We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason, if we dig deep in our history and our doctrine; and remember that we are not descended from fearful men. Not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate, and to defend causes that were for the moment unpopular. This is no time for men who oppose Senator McCarthy’s methods to keep silent, or for those who approve. We can deny our heritage and our history, but we cannot escape responsibility for the result. There is no way for a citizen of a republic to abdicate his responsibilities. As a nation we have come into our full inheritance at a tender age. We proclaim ourselves, as indeed we are, the defenders of freedom, wherever it continues to exist in the world, but we cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home. The actions of the junior Senator from Wisconsin have caused alarm and dismay amongst our allies abroad, and given considerable comfort to our enemies. And whose fault is that? Not really his. He didn’t create this situation of fear; he merely exploited it—and rather successfully. Cassius was right. ”The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.”

    America is approaching another reckoning right now, one that will pit our commitment to freedom principles against a level of fear-mongering that is being used to wreak havoc on everything in its path.

    The outcome rests, as always, with “we the people.” As Murrow said to his staff before the historic March 9 broadcast: “No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices.”

    Take heed, America.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, this may be your last warning.

  • China-Iran "Strategic Accord" To Give Tehran $400 Billion Boost Over Next 25 Years
    China-Iran “Strategic Accord” To Give Tehran $400 Billion Boost Over Next 25 Years

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 23:30

    China has remained Iran’s top trading partner in what’s become a crucial lifeline for the Islamic Republic, which is even turning into military and weapons supply assistance.

    Early this week The New York Times reported that Iran and China have concluded lengthy negotiations for a long term trade and military partnership which is expected to see some $400 billion worth of Chinese investments pour into the Islamic Republic over the next 25 years

    Based upon a previous 2016 agreement which deepened ties and saw presidents Xi and Rouhani exchange visits, the deal has been described as ‘secretive’ – though Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif and others has batted down the idea that there’s anything secretive to it at all, also given they’ve been very public in admitting a deal is pending, eager to defiantly show Washington that Iran has powerful international backers.

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    Prior talks between Xi Jinping and Hassan Rouhani of Iran, file image via China Foreign Ministry.

    But no doubt Iranian officials have to be concerned over either US or Israeli potential attempts to diplomatically sabotage the deepening Iran-China ties and cooperation. For starters, over the past year Chinese shipping companies have come under sanctions for helping Iran evade US sanctions on exports. 

    Nonetheless the Times framed it as having been “quietly” negotiated, also as it’s faced controversy in Iranian parliament

    Iran and China have quietly drafted a sweeping economic and security partnership that would clear the way for billions of dollars of Chinese investments in energy and other sectors, undercutting the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the Iranian government because of its nuclear and military ambitions.

    The partnership, detailed in an 18-page proposed agreement obtained by The New York Times, would vastly expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects. In exchange, China would receive a regular — and, according to an Iranian official and an oil trader, heavily discounted — supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years.

    And what’s sure to have the Pentagon and US intelligence worried, is this clearly extends China’s influence and military footprint in the Middle East, where it’s already long well-known to be quietly supporting Assad and the Syrian Army.

    Like Russia, China has for the most part been on the opposite side of US proxy wars in the region. And more immediately, such an oil for trade and investment partnerships deal would help Iran more effectively survive US sanctions, and further sever it from any reliance on Europe.

    Below are are further fields of cooperation expected under the massive and ambitious deal, which reports say could be inked as early as March of next year:

    • Chinese assistance to Iran in rolling out its 5G network.
    • Military cooperation, including joint training exercises and defense tech development.
    • Chinese access to strategic Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf, such as at Jask – a huge strategic boost for Beijing. 
    • And in turn Iranian access to China’s growing string of ports lining South Asia.
    • Possible rollout of Chinese and Russian electronic warfare capabilities, including anti-missile defense shields, crucial in defending against possible Israeli or US attacks.

    Despite all these advantages of sanctions-racked Iran, critics both within and outside the country have argued it essentially constitutes “selling off” the country to China at a moment it’s greatly weakened by sanctions and finds itself in an essential ‘state of war’ posture with Washington.

    But in desperation, it appears this is all a risk Iran’s leaders are willing to take, given that while facing down US and Israeli military superiority, they see it as past time to do a deal with “the devil you know”. 

  • Australia Needs To Decouple From China As "Second Cold War" Looms: Expert
    Australia Needs To Decouple From China As “Second Cold War” Looms: Expert

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 23:10

    Authored by Daniel Teng via The Epoch Times,

    An international strategist has told a parliamentary inquiry that Australia will need to build stronger “resilience” and less “dependence” on China, as in the near future, the world will likely fracture into two major geopolitical blocs akin to the Cold War – one bloc centered around Washington and the other Beijing.

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    Speaking to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence, and Trade on July 2, Alan Dupont, CEO of the Cognoscenti Group, said increased economic and political tensions between Washington and Beijing (particularly related to the trade war, Taiwan, and the South China Sea) would accelerate a “decoupling” of the world’s economies and see the formation of two geopolitical blocs.

    Dupont, who is an expert in international affairs, said Beijing would likely lead an “authoritarian” bloc, which would include countries such as Russia, Iran, North Korea, and countries from Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and South America.

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    Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (L) shakes hands with his Iran counterpart Hassan Rouhani during their bilateral meeting in Shanghai on May 21, 2014. (Alexey Druzhinin/AFP/Getty Images)

    The other bloc would include democracies from North America, Europe, and parts of Latin America and Africa. He noted that Australia would “certainly” side with the United States.

    Dupont acknowledged that trading relations would be “fluid” in what he called “the second Cold War, the one we’re going into now.” There will be “a lot of movement across the divisions” compared to the original Cold War (1947–1991), which saw trade limited to within each political bloc.

    However, in the event that a split does occur, Dupont noted that it was unlikely countries could “straddle” both factions; and aligning with one side was inevitable.

    “The more entrenched and rigid these divisions become, the more difficult it will be for countries to have choices and to remain in both camps.

    “You will get to a point at some stage where you do have to make a strategic decision about which one you are going with.

    “I think most countries do not want to be in that position, and I think that would include Australia too. We don’t want to go down that track, but the risk is that we will.”

    The parliamentary committee is examining the implications of COVID-19 for Australia’s foreign affairs, defense, and trade, and is looking into issues related to supply chain vulnerabilities and international trade relations.

    Australia Needs to Rectify ‘Vulnerabilities’ Amid Beijing Decoupling

    Dupont called on Australia to examine vulnerabilities in its supply chains, saying: “In my view, our dependence on China for a range of critical technologies and goods has become a major security liability and must be reversed.”

    Since April, Australia has been locked into a Beijing-instigated trade dispute, which has seen the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) impose 80 percent tariffs on Australian barley imports, ban beef imports from four abattoirs, and advise local Chinese power plants not to buy Australian coal.

    Australian politicians have also called for greater decoupling and less reliance on the China market.

    According to Dupont’s submission (pdf) to the inquiry, Beijing has already been implementing a form of decoupling.

    The submission noted:

    “China has practised a form of decoupling for many years, by carefully avoiding dependencies, creating protective trade barriers, and positioning itself to control strategic areas of the economy—from rare earths and pharmaceuticals to advanced manufacturing.”

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    Employees work on a micro motor production line at a factory in Huaibei on June 23, 2018. (AFP/Getty Images)

    Further, Dupont told the committee the CCP hasn’t received “enough pushback” in response to its actions, effectively allowing it to continue unabated.

    He called for Australia, in the meantime, to look seriously at its own vulnerabilities and examine how they can be rectified quickly in the short and long term.

    “It’s going to require significant investment. It means that we will lose certain efficiencies, and we’re going to have to trade off loss of efficiency for the resilience that we’re going to get,” Dupont said.

    According to the submission: “Some degree of economic separation is unavoidable and, indeed, necessary to preserve the integrity of a robust, open trading system and democratic values, freedoms, and institutions.

    “This is not a rejection of trade but a rethinking of its architecture and norms as well as interdependence.

    “It must be done with a surgeon’s scalpel, not a blacksmith’s hammer.”

  • Navy Abandons Physical Fitness Test For 2020 "To Minimize COVID Risk"
    Navy Abandons Physical Fitness Test For 2020 “To Minimize COVID Risk”

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 22:50

    The US has become the worst-affected country by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 3.257 million infections and at least 132,000 deaths. President Trump finally wore a mask on Saturday while visiting Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland. The latest surge in cases is happening across the Sun Belt region – home to major military installations.

    We learned last week, due to an explosion in virus cases in Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, California, Texas, and Florida, with some of these states home to America’s largest military bases, the Navy has axed physical fitness tests for the remainder of the year to mitigate virus spreading. 

    “The COVID-19 situation requires that we continue to minimize risk to personnel, therefore all personnel will be ‘EXCUSED’ from participation in Navy PFA (Physical Fitness Assessment) Cycle 2, 2020,” according to a naval administrative message (NAVADMIN) released Tuesday. 

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    “Suspension includes both the official Body Composition Assessment and Physical Readiness Test components of the PFA,” the NAVADMIN said.

    “All Navy commands are to continue the suspension of all organized or group physical training (PT) (i.e., Command, Department or Division PT and the Fitness Enhancement Program (FEP)), until further notice,” the memo added.

    Here’s a partial view of the memo: 

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    Additionally, the memo said sailors are permitted to conduct mock PFAs when conditions permit, following local virus guidelines. Mock PFAs will be restricted to no more than ten people and temperature checks.  

    The Navy canceled PFA requirements in another memo in March, around the time the first lockdowns began. 

    Last week, Major General William F. Mullen III told reporters that Marine PFAs would resume next year.

    No fitness assessments for sailors for the remainder of the year could be a national security threat as the health of men and women serving in uniform is one that is deteriorating. We noted several years back, men and women serving are getting fatter at an alarming rate

    Overweight servicemen and women have prompted military officials to contemplate changing diets that would eventually mean banning pizza and beer for salads.

    It’s not just the military that has an obesity problem, but 1 in 5 recruits are “too fat to fight.” 

    The virus pandemic has not just crashed the economy and unleashed a nuclear bomb on financial assets but has also forced people to stay cooped up in their homes for an extended period of time, resulting in a decline of physical fitness and weakened immune system. Couple that with a military that is “too fat to fight” with no more physical fitness assessments – was this all done by design so when the next military conflict breaks out, America will be unprepared? 

  • The Surveillance State: How To Disappear
    The Surveillance State: How To Disappear

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 22:30

    Via 21st Century Wire,

    With each passing day, supposedly ‘free and democratic’ western governments are working overtime to emulate the type of surveillance states we see in countries like China and North Korea. The goal is 24/7 digital tracking of every citizen, and this authoritarian agenda is being accelerated during the current manufactured COVID-19 ‘crisis.’ Besides going off-grid to a remote rural area, is it still possible to opt-out? 

    To answer this question, you will first need to audit which lines of tracking are currently in use.

    Is it possible for a person to successfully evade this rapidly emerging Orwellian grid of surveillance and social control?

    Even when wearing a mask in public, the State and its corporate enablers still have multiple lines of tracking honed on members of the public.

    To create effective privacy shields, it is first necessary to deconstruct your current web of digital networks. In addition, there are also a number a new tools at your disposal.

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    City Lab’s Jessica Leigh Hester reports…

    If extricating yourself from the electrical grid is, to some degree, a test of moxie and patience, extracting yourself from the web of urban surveillance technology strains the limits of both. If you live in a dense urban environment, you are being watched, in all kinds of ways. A graphic released by the Future of Privacy Forum highlights just how many sensors, CCTCV cameras, RFID readers, and other nodes of observation might be eying you as you maneuver around a city’s blocks. As cities race to fit themselves with smart technologies, it’s nearly impossible to know precisely how much data they’re accumulating, how it’s being stored, or what they’ll do with it.

    “By and large, right now, it’s the Wild West, and the sheriff is also the bad guy, or could be,” says Albert Gidari, the director of privacy at Stanford Law School’s Center for Internet and Society.

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    The various nodes where sensors and other tech could detect your movements through the city (Image Source: Future of Privacy Forum)

    Smart technologies can ease traffic, carve out safer pedestrian passages, and analyze environmental factors such as water quality and air pollution. But, as my colleague Linda Poon points out, their adoption is also stirring up a legal maelstrom. Surveillance fears have been aroused in Oakland, CaliforniaSeattle, and Chicago, and the applications of laws protecting citizen privacy are murky. For instance: data that’s stored on a server indefinitely could potentially infringe on the “right to be forgotten” that’s protected in some European countries. But accountability and recourse can be slippery, because civilians can’t necessarily sue cities for violating privacy torts, explains Gidari.

    What would it look like to leapfrog that murkiness by opting out entirely? Can a contemporary urbanite successfully skirt surveillance? I asked Gidari and Lee Tien, a senior staff attorney at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, to teach me how to disappear.

    During the course of our conversations, Tien and Gidari each remind me, again and again, that this was a fool’s errand: You can’t truly hide from urban surveillance. In an email before our phone call, Tien points out that we’re not even aware of all the traces of ourselves that are out in the world. He likens our data trail—from parking meters, streetlight cameras, automatic license plate readers, and more—to a kind of binary DNA that we’re constantly sloughing. Trying to scrub these streams of data would be impossible.

    Moreover, as the tools of surveillance have become more sophisticated, detecting them has become a harder task. “There was a time when you could spot cameras,” Tien says. Maybe a bodega would hang up a metal sign warning passersby that they were being recorded by a clunky, conspicuous device. “But now, they’re smaller, recessed, and don’t look like what you expect them to look like.”

    Other cameras are in the sky. As Buzzfeed has reported, some federal surveillance technologies are mounted in sound-dampened planes and helicopters that cruise over cities, using augmented reality to overlay a grid that identifies targets at a granular level. “There are sensors everywhere,” Gidari says. “The public has no ability to even see where they are.”

    The surest way to dodge surveillance is to not encounter it in the first place—but that’s not a simple ask. While various groups have tried to plot out routes that allow pedestrians to literally sidestep nodes of surveillance, they haven’t been especially successful. In 2013, two software developers released a beta version of an app called Surv, which aspired to be a crowdsourced guide to cameras mounted in cities around the world. The app would detect cameras within a 100-meter radius of the user’s phone, but it failed to meet its crowdfunding threshold on Kickstarter.

    The most effective solutions are also the least practical ones. To defeat facial recognition software, “you would have to wear a mask or disguises,” Tien says. “That doesn’t really scale up for people.” Other strategies include makeup that screws with a camera’s ability to recognize the contours of a human face, or thwarting cameras by blinding them with infrared LED lights fastened to a hat or glasses, as researchers at Japan’s National Institute of Informatics attempted in 2012. Those techniques are hardly subtle, though—in trying to trick the technology, you would stick out to the naked eye. And as biometrics continue to advance, cameras will likely be less dupable, too. There are also legal hiccups to consider: Drivers who don’t want city officials to know where they parked or when, Gidari says, would have to outwit license plate recognition tools by obscuring their license plate, such as with the noPhoto camera jammer, a new $399 device that fires a flash at red light cameras in an attempt to scramble a readable image. Obscuring license plates is already illegal in many cities and states, and others are chewing on new procedures.

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    LED glasses might not trick biometric cameras—but they will definitely attract the attention of folks on the street (Image Source: National institute of Informatics)

    In their book Obfuscation: A User’s Guide for Privacy and ProtestFinn Brunton and Helen Nissenbaum, both professors at New York University, champion a strategy of “throwing some sand in the gears, kicking up dust and making some noise,” essentially relying on the melee of data jamming to “hide in a cloud of signals.” A number of apps, websites, and browser extensions attempt to aid users in this type of misdirection—say, for instance, by running in the background of your regular web activities, trying to cover your digital tracks by throwing surveillance off your scent.

    For example: A site called Internet Noise searches for randomized phrases and opens five fresh tabs every ten seconds. (I left it running as I wrote this, and now my browser history includes pictures of badgers, an online mattress store, an NPR article about the Supreme Court, and a research paper about gene mutation in hamsters.) As a cloaking technique, it’s not a perfect veil, writes Emily Dreyfess in Wired: “It’s actually too random. It doesn’t linger on sites very long, nor does it revisit them. In other words, it doesn’t really look human, and smart-enough tracking algorithms likely know that.” The site is more of a protest over Congress rolling back a not-yet-implemented FCC regulation that would have stymied ISPs from selling users’ browsing history.

    Still, Tien advocates a certain degree of self-protection. He views these measures as a kind of digital hygiene—the “equivalent of washing your hands when you go to the bathroom,” or getting a flu shot. But he stresses that they’re only a partial prophylactic: “Nothing that will make you immune from the problem.”

    Other techniques include employing Tor—a network that tries to anonymize the source and destination of your web searches by routing traffic along a convoluted path—and Signal, which offers encrypted messaging and phone calls. The Electronic Frontier Foundation’s Surveillance Self-Defense toolkit also suggests particular tools and behaviors for specific scenarios. People participating in protests, the guide suggests, might consider stripping meta-data from photos, to make it harder to match them with identities and locations. But this isn’t a perfect solution, either, Tien says, because you can only control what you post. “If I take a picture and scrub the metadata, that’s one thing,” Tien says. “If my friend takes a picture of me, I can’t do anything about that.” The Intercept produced a video illustrating step-by-step instructions for phone security at a protest, from adding an access passcode to turning on encryption settings.

    On a daily basis, Tien tells me, “I don’t think you or I can exercise much meaningful self-help against the kind of tracking we’ll be seeing in real-world physical space.” That’s fodder for a point he makes about a fundamental asymmetry in the information that’s available to the bodies that install the cameras and those who are surveilled by them. There are relatively few laws relating to the expectation of privacy in a public space. The officials and organizations that install sensors, cameras, and ever-more-sensitive devices, he says, “have much more money than you do, much more technology than you do, and they don’t have to tell you what they’re doing.”

    Ultimately, Tien and Gidari both take a long view, arguing that the most payoff will come from pushing for more transparency about just what this technology is up to. Part and parcel of that, Tien says, is resisting the idea that data is inherently neutral. The whole messy, jumbled mass of it contains information that could have tangible consequences on people’s lives. Tien says citizens need to remind their elected officials what’s at stake with data—and in the process, maybe “dampen their enthusiasm” for the collection of it.

    He points out that sanctuary cities could be a prime example. There, he says, some advocates of immigrant rights are realizing that data collected via municipal surveillance “might not be such a good thing when we’re interested in protecting immigrants and the federal government is interested in deporting them.”

    The practical strategies for opting out—of becoming invisible to some of these modes of surveillance—are imperfect, to say the least. That’s not to say that data collection is inherently nefarious, Gidari says—as he wrote in a blog post for the CIS, “no one wants to live in a ‘dumb’ city.” But he says that opting out shouldn’t need to be the default: “I don’t think you should have been opted in in the first place.”

  • "There Are No Free Lunches" – Former Reserve Bank Of India Chief Explains Why MMT Will Never Work
    “There Are No Free Lunches” – Former Reserve Bank Of India Chief Explains Why MMT Will Never Work

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 22:10

    As Joe Biden tries to split the difference between the midwestern swing-state voters and the Sanders faithful, he’s released an economic plan – a plan that bears the imprimatur of his one-time foe Bernie Sanders – that, in its attempt to be everything to every one, effectively promises everything to every one.

    Buy American. Green New Deal. Corporate tax hikes. Trillions of dollars spent on infrastructure to install the latest eco-nonsense with money that should be going to roads, bridges, rails and airports. Docks and highways. Things people actually need and use. And who knows? Depending on his running mate, maybe we’ll get a massive student-debt jubilee, too. All on the federal government’s tab.

    Now that MMT has gone from fringe idea to mainstream, making Stephanie Kelton, a cryptomarxist who believes that the link between value and money can be completely severed, so long as we tax the wealthiest among us enough to keep inflation low. It doesn’t take a genius to suspect that an ‘economic theory’ grounded in the idea that governments can take on unlimited amounts of debt and never stick anybody with the tab sounds absurd – even dangerous.

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    We say dangerous because Kelton’s greatest sin is offering pandering politicians more cover to encourage their spendthrift ways. During a recent interview with Macro Hive, former Central Bank of India Governor and University of Chicago Professor Raghuram Rajan delivered a succinct and insightful explanation of why MMT is so dangerous.

    “We talked about sustainability and one of the big topics in markets at least is this whole idea of QE MMT infinity, the ability of sovereigns to borrow. Now in developed countries, they have historical capital they’ve built up and credibility,” Rajan’s interviewer began. “But you’re starting to also see this idea…you’re starting to see more emerging market countries experiment with it, including Indonesia and several others.”

    But at the same time “yields are very low, and if you look at emerging market spreads, they’re very low…so markets are telling you that they aren’t worried. Yet we know debt levels are high, and there’s more talk in debt markets of QE and MMT.”

    Does the fact that markets seem content with the status quo (at least for now) validate Kelton’s argument?

    Of course not, Rajan explained. Because while the complexities of the global financial system, and the dollar’s role within it, have allowed the Fed to spearhead this great monetary, as the veteran central banker explained, there’s no such thing as a free lunch.

    “We know that markets can be complacent until a certain point and then they turn on a time. We are at this point in a benign phase supported by an enormous amount of central bank liquidity emanating from the primary reserve currencies, the euro area, the US Fed and to some extent the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.”

    “But we must also recognize is that there are no free lunches. If there’s one statement you want to keep to pound into the head of every policy maker, it’s that there are no free lunches. If you borrow today, there is a presumption that it will be repaired at some point, so you are in a sense taking away resources from somebody else in the future.”

    Now it may be a generation or two down the line will be on the hook for this…whether they can pass it on to their children is an open question…but you’re definitely taking away their ability to borrow by borrowing today.”

    .While burdening future generations doesn’t seem to come up much in cryptomarxist essays about the moral imperative of expansive fiscal spending – some have gone so far as to argue that the federal government has a moral obligation to forgive student debt – Rajan acknowledges that the idea is “seductive” for all the wrong reasons.

    “So the idea that there are free lunches…which certainly is what the lay person takes away from MMT…is very sort of attractive, seductive – but it’s absolute nonsense.”

    If that’s the message that’s going to be communicated, then that’s wrong.

    Asked to elaborate, he continued…

    “There are times when you can spend a little bit more, but you are still making a  trade off and evaluating this trade off well…I think that’s the right thing to do. If that’s the message from MMT, then I’m fine with that. There are periods where you have more leeway.”

    “The message can’t be ‘Don’t Worry, Be Happy’ it has to be ‘yes take advantage of periods when you have a little more spending capacity but use it wisely, because there’s no such thing as a free lunch and you will have to repay it at some point…that’s what any sensible economic theory will tell you, and I think that’s what we understand now.”

    “When banks aren’t lending, when inflation is low, it is possible for the central bank to expand its balance sheet somewhat…and finance more activities that the government wants to undertake. That doesn’t mean it’s free debt…it’s equivalent to debt issued by the government – think of the central bank issuing debt as the same as the government issuing debt: it’s the consolidated balance sheet you’re looking at.”

    “Somebody is responsible for payment, it’s either the central bank or the government.”

    “At low interest rates it doesn’t really matter who it is, but as inflation picks ups it does matter a little more who it is because the central bank often is financing itself with effectively forced loans from the banking sector, and there’s a limit to how much the banking sector is willing to do that, especially as economic activity picks up.”

    “So my sense is yes there is some room now but it doesn’t mean the debt level doesn’t matter and it doesn’t mean that we should just keep spending without thought of who’s going to repay. And I think the big philosophical issues are how much are you going to bail out companies…why should Joe Schmoe…why should his taxes go to bail out a capital owner? After all, neither of them saw the pandemic coming…neither is responsible for the pandemic…so why should one bail out the property rights of another?”

    “It strikes me these guys who want to open up the government wallet and spend to protect everybody from the consequences of the pandemic don’t realize that there’s one person who’s bearing the hit: it may not be you, but it might be your children.”

    “And the question is: Why do they have to pay when they have no part in this?”

    Remember: As Rajan explains, we must recognize that our resources are limited and use them wisely. Keep that in mind when Democratic politicians are trying to spend trillions of dollars of public money to outfit private buildings with solar panels or whatever ‘Green New Deal’ infrastructure travesty AOC & Co come up with.

    * * *

    Source: Macro Hive

  • "Long Tech Stocks" Is The Most Crowded Trade Ever
    “Long Tech Stocks” Is The Most Crowded Trade Ever

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 21:50

    The monthly Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America is best known for two things: the recurring, apparent schizophrenia of the financial professionals polled, and the monthly chart showing what everyone on Wall Street thinks is the most crowded trade, i.e., what they think others have as their top trade.

    This month did not disappoint: not only did it confirm that the one trade – which everyone already knows – is the most popular on Wall Street, is indeed seen as such but it is in fact more so by the biggest margin on record. We are of course talking about “Long US tech stocks” which is what 74% of BofA survey respondents said they thought was the most crowded trade on Wall Street. (Long Gold and long cash were “most crowded trades” #2 and #3, respectively).

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    So convinced are finance professionals that everyone is “all in” tech, that the percentage of agreement behind tech being the most crowded trade is the highest of any monthly response in polling history, surpassing even the “Long US Dollar” responses attained during the dollar explosion in 2014/2015 when the ECB disintegrated the Euro.

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    Of course, having learned from our previous observations that there is a flawed reflexivity in the BofA Fund Manager Survey, some – such as Bloomberg’s Ye Xie – were skeptical that there is a convergence between perception and reality, and that it wasn’t actually the case that everyone is “all in” tech stocks; to justify their skepticism, they pointed out another chart from the same BofA poll which showed that tech stocks were only modestly above historical average z-scores in terms of positioning.

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    Only this time being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian appears a losing position, because one look at the latest Hedge Fund Tracker from Goldman confirms that – at the institutional and hedge fund level – everyone is indeed long tech stocks. A quick look at the hedge fund top 50 stocks (HF VIP list) shows that tech names account for 8 of the top 10 most popular stocks.

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    Of course, BofA observing that everyone is long tech is hardly a shock. After all, as BofA points out in another research report published today, without tech, S&P gains over the past five years would be 50% lower.

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    So yes, whatever works will continue to work, until there is a reason for it not to work. And since the Fed is now effectively punishing growth stocks (which is just another name for bank and energy stocks, by keeping rates at record lows), the growth to value outperformance will continue until there are no more value investors left.

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    Which is not to say that since it has worked so far, it will always work. Indeed, as BofA CIO Michael Hartnett notes, if one wants to be a true contrarian, “the best short is tech stocks given positioning and stretched performance.”

    Just make sure to have a massive balance sheet if putting this short on as the likelihood of repeat margin calls before it finally does work is directly proportional to the likelihood that the Fed’s balance sheet will continue to grow by about one trillion dollars every month or so, just to avoid a complete collapse of the entire financial system.

  • The Worst Is Over For Arizona's COVID Breakout, Goldman Finds
    The Worst Is Over For Arizona’s COVID Breakout, Goldman Finds

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 21:30

    Several months ago, the coronavirus pandemic mutated from a purely epidemiological phenomenon and became a full-blown political issue, with clear ideological divisions forming along the lines of whether or not to pursue strict shutdowns (and in some cases, whether to engage in another round of economic closures) all the way down to whether masks should be worn. The drivers here were self-evident: opponents of Trump and the current administration demanded even more caution, in some cases arguably in pursuit self-serving hopes of further economic pain (and more stimulus payments) that would make a Trump re-election difficult; in light of this it is understandable why the president hoped to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror and to accelerate the reopening of the economy which has cost tens of millions in jobs and trillions in new debt.

    In recent weeks, a similar divide has also emerged on Wall Street, where pessimists such as Goldman have been emphasizing the recent surge in new cases across sunbelt states, warning that these would result in another spike in deaths, as well as reduction in mobility and overall cosumption and thus a fresh hit to the economy, as a new round of shutdowns – either mandatory or voluntary – were enacted. Optimists, meanwhile, would note that higher cases are merely a function of widespread testing…

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    … and pointed to the continued decline in covid-linked deaths which despite the jump in new cases, had failed to inflect higher, underscoring that the mortality rate appears to be much lower for younger covid patients. That said, the latest data appears to show that even the number of deaths now appears to be rising while total cases may have finally plateaued.

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    Last week, in a note that was clearly in the “optimistic” camp, BofA’s Hans Mikkelsen wrote that sharply elevated new daily Covid-19 case numbers highlight first and foremost more successful testing strategies (more tests, contact tracing, etc.), according to the University of Washington IHME model.

    The strategist also said that “to gauge the spread of Covid-19 we prefer to look at number of hospitalized people that, although a bit lagged (in March/April the peak in number of hospitalized came 17 days after the peak in newly infected, according to the IHME model), is less dependent on testing strategy.”

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    While hospitalizations were clearly up in the U.S., BofA pointed out that if one excludes the four states “we find they are more accurately described as flat lining.” Moreover, BofA calculates that in the new outbreak the daily number of infected people peaked on June 21st at 75,179, up from 71,112 on June 1st, and sharply above yesterday’s 69,987 estimate, again according to the IHME model.

    The optimistic conclusion: “Should hospitalizations again be lagged 17 days that would imply (local) peak hospitalizations on July 8.

    Fast forward to today, when following several weeks of downbeat comments, Goldman may have also turned somewhat  optimistic on US chances, with chief economist Jan Hatzius (we are all epidemiologists now) writing that “today, confirmed new cases (7-day moving average) are now lower compared to one week ago” and noting that “it is possible that case growth could be at the beginning of a sustained downward trajectory” even though as he concedes, the positive test rate remains very high, and virus spread is weighing significantly on the state’s available hospital resources. A sustained decline in new cases would take several days to translate to lower hospitalizations and more available hospital capacity.

    As Goldman notes, the decline in new confirmed cases follows a drop in restaurant and retail activity in the state, which many have previously linked to rising cases. Over the past few weeks, even before the Governor of Arizona ordered targeted restrictions on bar, restaurant, and other activity, individuals began to voluntarily scale back their mobility, consistent with our analysis last week that the level of new cases significantly predicts lower levels of activity.

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    It’s not just Arizona that is sending out hopeful signs with the number of confirmed new cases declining in the state (and now the 7-day moving average of new cases lower than it was a week ago). To track which states may be beginning a downward trajectory, Goldman now includes a column in its state heatmap for the change in new cases vs 7 days ago, in addition to the change vs 14 days ago. Yet while Arizona may be exiting the woods, the US as a whole (and ex- the tristate area), is still seeing an overall increase, with 35 new cases per million as of July 14.

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  • Why Are US Taxpayers Providing Public Pensions To Millionaire Members Of Congress
    Why Are US Taxpayers Providing Public Pensions To Millionaire Members Of Congress

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 21:10

    Authored by Adam Andrzejewski, first published in Forbes

    Membership in the U.S. Congress is an exclusive club that comes with lucrative, taxpayer-funded privileges. Retirement perks include a lifetime pension and a taxpayer-matched savings plan with taxpayer-paid contributions of up to five percent of salary.

    As the longest-serving member of Congress, Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) would qualify for a yearly pension of $167,040 if he retired today. Former speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) was eligible to draw a $84,930 pension when he turned 50 in January after serving for twenty years and retiring at age 48.

    Critics question the necessity of such a system. Why are U.S. taxpayers providing public pensions to millionaire members of Congress on top of a 401(k)-style plan? (The median net worth for a member recently exceeded $1.1 million.)

    Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com broke down benefits received by leaders from both parties: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

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    Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (left) and speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (net worth est. $50 million to $72 million): She’ll reap $153,967 a year in public pension and social security benefits at retirement. In addition, Pelosi could cash out an estimated $1 million lump sum through her federal saving account – and that’s just the portion of the account that was taxpayer-funded.

    Our auditors calculated that Speaker Nancy Pelosi earned $5.7 million in salary to date during her 34-year congressional career. Pelosi’s salary ranged from $77,400 (1987) to today’s $223,500, as the most highly compensated member of Congress.

    Taxpayers also invested $282,965 into Pelosi’s federal Thrift Savings Plans – an amount that equals five percent of salary as long as members also contribute five percent of earnings. We estimate that those taxpayer dollars grew to $1.03 million if invested in an S&P 500 index fund, as of 12/31/2019.

    On top of all this, if Pelosi retired after the November elections, we pegged her pension and annuity package at $153,967 annually. According to formulas, Pelosi (age 80) qualifies for $106,363 pension, and she’s also eligible for social security. Assuming a maximum benefit, she’ll receive an additional $47,604 each year.

    Our estimates are in good faith based on the published rules. Complicating matters, Pelosi doesn’t disclose her congressional benefits on her financial disclosures, nor did she respond to our request for comment.

    Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (net worth est. $22 million): During his 36 years of public service in Congress, our auditors calculated that McConnell earned $5.5 million in salary. McConnell’s salary ranged from $75,100 (1985) to today’s $193,400 – as the second highest paid member of Congress.

    Taxpayers also invested $273,700 into Mitch McConnell’s federal Thrift Savings Plans. We estimate that the taxpayer dollars alone grew to $1.1 million if invested in an S&P 500 index fund (as of 12/31/19).

    In retirement, McConnell can cash out the estimated $1.1 million – as a one-time lump sum or as he wishes.

    Then, there is his lifetime pension payout. The researchers at the National Taxpayers Union pegged McConnell’s pension and annuity package at $142,902 annually, if he retired after the November election. McConnell (age 78) qualifies for a $96,738 pension, and he’s also eligible for social security amounting to an additional $46,164 each year.

    Critics say members of Congress shouldn’t be able to double-dip in taxpayer-funded retirement plans. Since representatives can already take advantage of the lucrative 401(k)-style plan with the five percent match, why can’t members have the option to opt-out of the public pension plan?

    In 1994, then-elected representative Dr. Tom Coburn (R-OK) was able to opt-out of his federal pension by using a little-known loophole. But Congress eliminated that option by changing the law in the 2004 Appropriations Act.

    Today, U.S. Senator Mike Braun (R-IN) feels it is imperative that members have the choice to forego the generous public pension. His bill (S. 439) makes it possible for members to opt-out.

    Braun responded to our request for comment:

    “It’s time we make Washington WRE +0.5% more like the private sector and the best place to start is to end taxpayer-funded pensions – like Nancy Pelosi’s six-figure annual pension – that Senators and Congressmen are entitled to in retirement.

    If we remove the luxurious perks from Congress, we’ll get better leaders: that’s why I’ll never accept my Senate pension and, if forced to, I pledge to donate every penny to Hoosier charities.”

    Braun’s bill passed the Senate in December 2019 – to Leader McConnell’s credit. However, the legislation is stuck in Speaker Pelosi’s House awaiting a markup in the Committee on House Administration led by Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA).

  • The Dollar "Has Us By The Throat": Chinese Official Urges Gradual Decoupling Of Yuan Ahead Of "Full-Blown Escalation"
    The Dollar “Has Us By The Throat”: Chinese Official Urges Gradual Decoupling Of Yuan Ahead Of “Full-Blown Escalation”

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 20:50

    With all eyes on Trump’s Tuesday evening Rose Garden speech which unveiled that he’ll sign new and punitive measures indirectly targeting China — namely the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, a bipartisan measure to penalize banks that work with Chinese officials found to be interfering in Hong Kong affairs — it remains that arguably the most important recent statements out of China came not from current government officials, but from Zhou Li, the 65-year-old former deputy head of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department. He’s considered an important voice who echoes the outside the box thinking and general “talk” of the communist party’s diplomatic establishment. 

    Amid the soaring US-China tension which could give way to a military stand-off in the South China Sea, given the presence and military exercises of two US supercarriers there, Zhou Li earlier this month issued what many see as the more radical ‘extreme thinking’ out of the communist party: an eventual decoupling of the Chinese yuan from the US dollar. 

    This would be a “full-blown escalation” with no off ramp scenario. But given the tit-for-tat with Washington is likely to lead precisely to further extreme responses on both sides, Zhou’s position could in the end be the final weapon Beijing ultimately and no doubt reluctantly pulls out of its arsenal. Now is the time for Beijing to begin insulating itself from “dollar hegemony and gradually achieve the decoupling of the renminbi from the US currency,” Zhou argued. “The US dollar could become a major risk issue that ‘has us by the throat’.”

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    He penned an article widely reported on in regional media which “predicts industrial supply chains being torn up, a China-U.S. decoupling and a world split into dollar and yuan economic blocs.” This would take China, contrary to President Xi’s ambitious plans for his country as an expanding global economic power, into a ‘forced’ unprecedented level of isolation. 

    “By taking advantage of the dollar’s global monopoly position in the financial sector, the US will pose an increasingly severe threat to China’s further development,” Zhou wrote in the article originally published by the Beijing-based think tank Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University.

    Framing what’s at issue behind the former high ranking diplomat’s rationale, The South China Morning Post summarized

    The US had been able to leverage the dollar-dominated SWIFT international payments messaging system to extend “long-arm jurisdiction” for its policies outside America, including sanctioning Russia and Iran, Zhou noted. Sanctions against energy suppliers could jeopardise China’s energy security, he warned.

    And further: “China must accelerate the internationalization of the yuan, speed up the increase in cross-border payments and clearing arrangements for the yuan, establish local currency settlement mechanisms with more countries, and create conditions to maximise the use of the Chinese currency in global industrial supply chains, Zhou said.”

    Broadly, in this most dire scenario spelled out by Zhou, decoupling would only be possible should a ripple effect of ‘walling off’ in other Chinese sectors also be aggressively pursued and in progress.

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    Via Reuters: Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. President Donald Trump shake hands after signing their “phase one” trade agreement at the White House in Washington on Jan. 15, 2020.

    “Beijing should seize the opportunity to build China-centric regional industrial chains, given the continued devastation to overseas demand and the disruption of global supply chains caused by the coronavirus,” SCMP wrote of his words. 

    “In addition, Zhou warned, China should brace for a worldwide food crisis and the return of international terrorism during the pandemic,” the report also noted.

    * * *

    In a brief outline presented separately by Nikkei, Zhou’s position is that the Chinese must prepare:

    1. For the deterioration of Sino-U.S. relations and the full escalation of the struggle.

    2. To cope with shrinking external demand and a disruption of supply chains.

    3. For a new normal of coexisting with the novel coronavirus pandemic over the long term.

    4. To leave the dollar hegemony and gradually realize the decoupling of the yuan from the dollar.

    5. For the outbreak of a global food crisis.

    6. For a resurgence of international terrorism.

    Again, such a grim position forecasting isolation is nowhere near the official Chinese Communist Party line, but represents a predicted necessary future reaction to full-blown long lasting conflict with the US. 

  • Are Americans "Mad As Hell"?
    Are Americans “Mad As Hell”?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 20:30

    Authored by Michael Walsh via The Epoch Times,

    “I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to take it anymore!”

    That’s the famous phrase that instantly entered the American lexicon, courtesy of Paddy Chayefsky, the writer of the 1976 Oscar-winning movie, “Network.”

    The film, which starred Faye Dunaway, William Holden, and the late Peter Finch as the enraged newscaster, Howard Beale, won four Oscars, including a best actor prize for Finch, whose Beale character was the forerunner of every fuming cable TV pundit from Bill O’Reilly to Keith Olbermann to Glenn Beck to Rachel Maddow to, latterly, Tucker Carlson, expatiating on behalf of the American public.

    Here’s the speech, which might have been written yesterday by a conservative, but 44 years ago was the authentic voice of a Hollywood liberal:

    “I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel’s worth. Banks are going bust. Shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there’s nobody anywhere that seems to know what to do with us. There’s no end to it.

    “We know the air is unfit to breathe, our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TVs while some local newscaster tells us that today we had 15 homicides and 63 violent crimes as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be. We know things are bad. Worse than bad. They’re crazy. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy so we don’t go out anymore. We sit in a house as slowly the world we’re living in is getting smaller and all we say is, “Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms…

    “Well I’m not going to leave you alone. I want you to get mad. I don’t want you to protest. I don’t want you to riot. I don’t want you to write to your congressman because I wouldn’t know what to tell you to write. I don’t know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crying in the streets. All I know is first you’ve got to get mad. You’ve got to say, ‘I’m a human being. God dammit, my life has value.’

    “I want you to get up right now. Get up. Go to your windows, open your windows, and stick your head out, and yell, ‘I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore!’

    Fantasy World

    Welcome to 2020, the year in which what was once fanciful is now practically reality.

    In the movie, things end badly for Beale, the “mad prophet of the airwaves,” who has become a quasi-religious leader hosting a segment called “Vox Populi” – he is assassinated on camera at the cynical direction of the network executives by members of Ecumenical Liberation Army, as a kickoff to their new show, “The Mao Tse-Tung Hour” of revolutionary chic.

    It’s a win-win all around for the network, which has experienced a ratings bonanza with Beale, but with his usefulness at an end, needed a way to literally kill off his character to make way for something even more outrageous—even if it sends the exact opposite political message.

    If the media was driving America crazy in 1976, in the direct aftermath of the Arab oil embargo, Watergate, and the surprising accession of an unelected vice president to the Oval Office in the hapless Gerald Ford, how much nuttier are we now?

    We are currently living in a fantasy world in which Howard Beale really is the voice of sanity.

    Consider what we are being asked to believe:

    • Some lives matter more than other lives, despite our common shared humanity.

    • The mainstream media is an impartial, objective reporter of facts, unaligned with party or ideology.

    • Men can be women, and women can be men, at will.

    • Speech equals violence, but silence equals violence as well.

    • Infection by the CCP virus equals death – even though the death toll in the United States at this writing is about .04 percent of the total population. It is also race-selective in its lethality.

    • The United States was built on a foundation of sub-Saharan African slavery in 1619, and is therefore illegitimate.

    • A “national conversation” means agreeing with the Left in every particular no matter what the subject.

    • The office of the Executive – Article II of the Constitution – is subject to the Supreme Court – Article III – thanks to an 1803 Court decision, Marbury v. Madison.

    • The United States has benefited from outsourcing its crucial bio-medical infrastructure to the Chinese Communist Party, along with a substantial portion of its manufacturing capability, because lower prices are what Adam Smith would have wanted.

    • There is an epidemic of white policemen shooting black street criminals.

    • The Leftist/Fascist gang of street paramilitary thugs called “Antifa” are the equivalent of the American boys who landed at Omaha Beach in 1944, when in fact their “flag” is simply the inversion of the Antifaschiste Aktion of the Weimar Republic Communists.

    • Western civilization, which includes Homer, Cicero, Charlemagne, Mozart, Dickens, Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and Mount Rushmore equals “white supremacy.”

    • The highest form of “patriotism” is not simply “dissent” anymore, it’s overt treason.

    Time to Rise Up

    So perhaps now it’s time for real, patriotic Americans to assert themselves – for if not now, when?

    The goal of the Herbert Marcuse-Saul Alinsky–Howard Zinn left has always been the destruction of the country-as-founded and its replacement by a (temporary) nation-state that acknowledges the illegitimacy of its founding – Marcuse’s doctrine of “Repressive Tolerance,” which posits tolerance for Leftist ideas until the Left seizes power, after which “tolerance” is no longer a virtue. (See also Alinsky’s “Rule No. 4,” which posits: “‘Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules’… You can kill them with this because no one can possibly obey all of their own rules.”)

    In the old Soviet Union, in which I spent many unhappy hours between the years 1986-1991, the United States was always referred to as the “principal enemy.” To today’s Communists, whether Chinese or home-grown, this remains true. As I like to say on Twitter—from which I have been temporarily “suspended” for who-knows-what imagined transgression of the “Twitter safety” rules—“they never stop, they never sleep, they never quit.”

    Nevertheless, it’s time for all patriotic Americans to rise up and say, “I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore.” As Beale says in his final speech, just before his assassination:

    “At the bottom of all of our terrified souls, we know, that democracy is a dying giant, a sick, sick, dying, decaying political concept, riling in its final pain. I don’t mean that the United States is finished as a world power. The United States is the richest, the most powerful, the most advanced country in the world, light years ahead of any other country… What is finished… is the idea that this great country is dedicated to the freedom and flourishing of every individual in it.”

    Was he right? Or is it up to us to prove him wrong? The choice in November is ours.

  • Border Patrol Captures Meth Plane's Drug Cargo In California
    Border Patrol Captures Meth Plane’s Drug Cargo In California

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 20:10

    Perhaps drug smugglers are adjusting to President Trump’s new border wall and increased patrols via US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents. So far, about 200 miles of the latest high-tech fence has been erected, and stricter border enforcement overall has led to a decline in crossings this year. 

    Traversing the international border has become more challenging for drug smugglers and could be the reason why some have resorted to using ultralight aircraft flying at low altitudes.

    KXAN-TV in Austin, Texas, reports Monday CBP spotted an ultralight aircraft in US airspace moments before finding a duffle bag filled with meth. 

    CBP agents in the El Centro Sector’s Calexico Station followed the aircraft late Saturday night about three and a half miles north of the US-Mexico border. 

    When agents responded to the dropoff zone – they found a 145.5-pound bag of methamphetamine in 26 clear plastic containers. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) determined the drugs were meth and said it has a street value of $327,375. 

    Several images via CBP: 

    Meth plane’s cargo 

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    Here’s an example of drug cartels using an ultralight aircraft to fly meth across the international border (note this is not the aircraft from Saturday’s incident). 

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    Here’s an instance where the border wall is ineffective against ultralight aircraft flying at low altitudes. Is it time to install MIM-104 Patriots along the border?

  • Trump Signs Sanctions Bill Ending Preferential Treatment For Hong Kong
    Trump Signs Sanctions Bill Ending Preferential Treatment For Hong Kong

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 19:52

    Update (1736ET): Trump just confirmed that he will indeed be signing the sanctions bill in retaliation for Hong Kong, slapping sanctions on officials who help enforce the CCP’s new national security law that flouts the city’s independence accorded by the Basic Law, and stripping Hong Kong of its preferential treatment, according to Trump.

    The bill passed through Congress with unanimous consent, highlighting how Trump’s more aggressive posture toward China has become a point of bipartisan favor – even Joe Biden has suffered a political toll for his friendly rhetoric. A chorus of western countries has criticized China’s move to curtail political freedoms, including speech and assembly, labeling it “terrorism” and “secessionist”.

    * * *

    Update (1715ET): As we wait for Trump to take the podium, media reports are claiming that Trump is planning to announce that he’s signing the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, a bipartisan measure to penalize banks that work with Chinese officials found to be interfering in Hong Kong affairs.

    It’s essentially sanctions-lite for CCP officials involved with enforcing the new Hong Kong national security law that prompted Sec Pompeo to declare that Hong Kong is no longer sufficiently autonomous.

    * * *

    One day after the State Department announced that the US would no longer recognize the South China Sea as Chinese territory, President Trump is holding his first press briefing in weeks, purportedly to discuss these latest actions against China.

    Though we suspect most of the questions will focus on the administration’s coronavirus response and President Trump’s latest efforts to pressure states to commit to holding in-person classes when the new school year begins, Trump has much to discuss, including Magnitsky Act sanctions on Chinese officials tied to Xinjiang and the administration’s continued pressure campaign against Huawei, which received a boost earlier today when the UK’s decision to exclude Huawei from its 5G network also

    The briefing begins at 1700ET, though we suspect Trump will be late. It will take place in the Rose Garden, Trump’s favorite venue, despite the heat in Washington.

     

  • Former New Mexico Governor Meets With Maduro, Seeking To Free Detained US Mercenaries
    Former New Mexico Governor Meets With Maduro, Seeking To Free Detained US Mercenaries

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 19:50

    Authored by Anya Parampil via TheGrayZone.com,

    The Grayzone has confirmed that former US ambassador to the UN Bill Richardson traveled to Venezuela on Monday, July 13, following conversations with the families of former Green Beret soldiers Luke Denman and Airan Berry. Venezuelan authorities detained Berry and Denman on May 4, after they participated in a failed mercenary invasion of Venezuela with the stated goal of kidnapping the country’s elected president, Nicolas Maduro. 

    Mark Denman, the younger brother of the detained mercenary Luke Denman, told The Grayzone that Richardson had agreed to help his family after the US Department of State failed to offer assistance. Denman said the FBI had contacted his family, but only to advance its apparent criminal investigation into the ringleader of the botched mercenary invasion, Silvercorp CEO Jordan Goudreau.

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    Among eight mercenaries arrested during a failed beach raid were two Americans, via Venezuelan media.

    “Richardson is not a government official, he’s a private individual right now and so I’m glad he agreed to help us out,” Mark Denman told The Grayzone.

    According to Denman, Luke’s girlfriend “reached out to [The Richardson Center] and got them involved and they agreed to help. We formally asked them to help out and they said that they would love to.”

    It is unclear whether the families of other US citizens charged with crimes in Venezuela, such as the Citgo 6, have also reached out to Richardson.

    Denman said his older brother’s girlfriend had learned about The Richardson Center after reading about Governor Richardson’s successful effort to free a US Navy Veteran held in Iran this past June. Richardson has previously led successful missions to free US prisoners in North Korea and Iran, including in the high-profile cases of college student Otto Warmbier and journalist Laura Ling. His efforts earned him a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

    “I was glad to see this tweet today, everyone was sending it to me, to see that they are traveling and all,” Denman said, referring to The Richardson Center’s announcement of its latest mission on Twitter. Richardson’s effort came as the US government has failed to offer any official support to the Denman and Berry families.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “As of yet we have not had any contact with the State Department,” Denman explained to The Grayzone. He described a frustrating “Catch-22” situation in dealing with US diplomats.

    “We’ve spoken with employees at the US embassy in Bogotá, who have asked us to get Luke to fill out a ‘privacy release form’ so that they can speak to us more about his situation. And I asked them how they propose I do that since technically I don’t even know where these guys [Luke and Airan] are,” Denman said.

    “The employee then advised we hire an attorney in Venezuela, and I asked how they propose I do that since as far as I know there are massive efforts to shut off any method of sending money to Venezuela and attorneys want to get paid,” he stated, referencing the impact of unilateral US economic sanctions which have restricted the ability of US citizens to transfer funds to Venezuela.

    “I don’t know what information they’d be able to get out anyway since they’re in Colombia and we don’t have any diplomatic ties with Venezuela right now,” Denman added.

    Beyond those conversations with US officials in Bogotá, Denman said the only contact his family has had with the US government arrived through the FBI as part of what “sounded like” a criminal investigation into Jordan Goudreau, the former US Green-Beret who directed the bungled invasion of Venezuela, dubbed “Operation Gideon.”

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    Ex-green beret Jordan Goudreau, center. Image source: Silvercorpusa/Instagram

    “We’ve been talked to by the FBI a little bit. The questions they asked are revolving around Jordan and any contact we’ve had with him,” Denman said. “They’ve been very basic questions like, ‘Did we know Jordan before this? When have we talked to him? What numbers do we have for him? And if we have record of any communication between Luke and Jordan.’”

    Denman told The Grayzone he was “happy to cooperate with the FBI” because “based on my communication with Luke from the beginning, what it looks like is that Luke genuinely believed this to be a US-backed operation and was acting [based] on that… I think any investigation is going to show that whatever Jordan actually knew and had actually going on, or whether the US was actually involved or not, Luke and Airan certainly believed that was the case.”

    Denman explained that Luke and Airan trusted Goodreau because he was a “guy they had been in a lot of combat with, [who had] superior rank and all that stuff, so they did this thing they thought was meaningful.”

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    Bill Richardson, via AP

    Denman expressed caution in dealing with US politicians, or either Presidential candidate, to assist his family in bringing Luke and Airan home, saying he would rather leave the task to “private individuals and members of society who actually honor soldier services as opposed to politicians who [are only concerned with] their own re-elections.”

    “I’d like them involved if they’re helpful but if they’re not helpful I’d rather they just stay out of it,” he added, suggesting President Donald Trump or Democratic Nominee Joe Biden would only involved “if some campaign advisors advised them [putting together] a photo-op with these guys would be good, but it’s a little unpredictable.”

    When asked what he would like the US and Venezuelan public to know about his brother and his friend Airan Berry, Denman remarked, “they believed the Venezuelan people to be suffering and they thought they were working in their government’s interest and with the backing of their government.” 

    “People work with limited information,” he added.

  • NYT 'Chief Threat To Democracy': Eric Weinstein Takes Flamethrower To Paper Of Record After Bari Weiss Quits
    NYT ‘Chief Threat To Democracy’: Eric Weinstein Takes Flamethrower To Paper Of Record After Bari Weiss Quits

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 19:45

    Eric Weinstein, managing director of Thiel Capital and host of The Portal podcast, has gone scorched earth on the New York Times following the Tuesday resignation of journalist Bari Weiss.

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    Illustration via DanielMiessler.com

    Weinstein describes how The Times has morphed into an activist rag – refusing to cover “news” unpaletable to their narrative, while ignoring key questions such as whether Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking ring was “intelligence related.”

    Jump into Weinstein’s Twitter thread by clicking on the below tweet, or scroll down for your convenience.

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    (continued)

    At that moment Bari Weiss became all that was left of the “Paper of Record.” Why? Because the existence of Black Racists with the power to hunt professors with Baseball Bats and even redefine the word ‘racism’ to make their story impossible to cover ran totally counter-narrative.

    At some point after 2011, the NYT gradually stopped covering the News and became the News instead. And Bari has been fighting internally from the opinion section to re-establish Journalism inside tbe the NYT. A total reversal of the Chinese Wall that separates news from opinion.

    This is the paper in 2016 that couldnt be interested in the story that millions of Americans were likely lying to pollsters about Donald Trump.

    The paper refusing to ask the CIA/FBI if Epstein was Intelligence related.

    The paper that can’t report that it seeks race rioting:

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    I have had the honor of trying to support both @bariweiss at the New York Times and @BretWeinstein in their battles simply to stand alone against the internal mob mentality. It is THE story all over the country. Our courageous individuals are being hunted at work for dissenting.

    Before Bari resigned, I did a podcast with her. It was chilling. I‘d make an innocuous statement of simple fact and ask her about it. She‘d reply “That is obviously true but I’m sorry we can’t say that here. It will get me strung up.” That‘s when I stopped telling her to hang on.

    So what just happened? Let me put it bluntly: What was left of the New York Times just resigned from the New York Times. The Times canceled itself. As a separate Hong Kong exists in name only, the New New York Times and affiliated “news” is now the chief threat to our democracy.

    This is the moment when the passengers who have been becoming increasingly alarmed, start to entertain a new idea: what if the people now in the cockpit are not airline pilots? Well the Twitter Activists at the @nytimes and elsewhere are not journalists.

    What if those calling for empathy have a specific deadness of empathy?

    Those calling for justice *are* the unjust?

    Those calling “Privilege” are the privileged?

    Those calling for equality seek to oppress us?

    Those anti-racists are open racists?

    The progressives seek regress?

    The journalists are covering up the news?

    Try the following exercise: put a minus sign in front of nearly every banner claim made by “the progressives”.

    Q: Doesn’t that make more sense?

    Those aren’t the pilots you imagine. And we are far closer to revolution than you think.

    Bari and I agree on a lot but also disagree fiercely. And so I have learned that she is tougher than tough. But these university and journalistic workplaces are now unworkable. They are the antithesis off what they were built to stand for. It is astounding how long she held out.

    Read her letter. I have asked her to do a make-up podcast & she has agreed. Stay tuned If you don’t want to be surprised again by what‘s coming understand this: just as there has been no functioning president, there‘s now no journalism. We‘re moving towards a 🌎 of pure activism.

    Prepare to lose your ability to call the police & for more autonomous zones where kids die so that Govenors & Mayors can LARP as Kayfabe revolutionaries. Disagree with Ms Weiss all you want as she isn’t perfect. But Bari is a true patriot who tried to stand alone. Glad she’s out.

    We are not finished by a long shot. What the Intellectual Dark Web tried to do MUST now be given an institutional home.

    Podcast with Bari on The Portal to come as soon as she is ready.

    Stay tuned. And thanks for reading this. It is of the utmost importance.

    Thank you all. 🙏

    P.S. Please retweet the lead tweet from this thread if you understand where we are. Appreciated.

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  • Squirrel Tests Positive For Bubonic Plague In Small Colorado Town
    Squirrel Tests Positive For Bubonic Plague In Small Colorado Town

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 19:30

    After a new case of the bubonic plague rattled the part of Mongolia near the Russian border, it appears the infamous plague strain responsible for killing between 50 million and 100 million Europeans during the 14th Century has now been discovered in Colorado, where a squirrel recently tested positive, according to local news reports.

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    The squirrel was discovered in the Town of Morrison in Colorado, according to Jefferson County Public Health officials, who made the announcement in a statement released over the weekend. The squirrel, discovered on Saturday, is the first case of plague in Jefferson County in modern history.

    Tests were run after a concerned townsperson saw at least 15 dead squirrels lying around town. When one of the bodies was tested, it came back positive for plague.

    Officials expect the other dozen or so dead squirrels were also infected.

    Though it can now be treated with antibiotics, the plague can spread among pets. Cats and dogs who play outside are particularly susceptible.

    Cats are highly susceptible to the plague and can catch it from flea bites or a rodent scratch or bite, or by ingesting a rodent. Cats may also die if not properly treated with antibiotics, officials said.

    For those who aren’t familiar with the history of the Black Death, here’s some background courtesy of NatGeo:

    “Arguably the most infamous plague outbreak was the so-called Black Death, a multi-century pandemic that swept through Asia and Europe,” according to National Geographic. “It was believed to start in China in 1334, spreading along trade routes and reaching Europe via Sicilian ports in the late 1340s. The plague killed an estimated 25 million people, almost a third of the continent’s population. The Black Death lingered on for centuries, particularly in cities. Outbreaks included the Great Plague of London (1665-66), in which 70,000 residents died.”

    Though of course that doesn’t answer the most important question: How did it get to Colorado?

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Today’s News 14th July 2020

  • Concorde 2.0? Boom Supersonic To Unveil Ultrafast Plane In October 
    Concorde 2.0? Boom Supersonic To Unveil Ultrafast Plane In October 

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 02:45

    It’s been 17 years since Aerospatiale/BAC Concorde, a turbojet-powered supersonic passenger airliner, flew passengers across the Atlantic at Mach 2.04 (1,341 mph). Come October, that could all change, as Boom Supersonic will unveil its supersonic demonstrator.

     

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    XB-1 demonstrator. h/t Boom Supersonic 

    The Denver-based aerospace startup will rollout the XB-1 on October 7, powered by three GE J85-15 engines. The demonstrator will be one-third-scale but used in trial flights for the eventual debut of the 55-passenger Overture supersonic airliner by mid-2020s. 

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    Supersonic travel was popular in the late 1970s, 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. Concorde was the only game in town, flying 20 jets (6 non-commercial aircraft) for 27 years. The end of commercial supersonic flight was in 2003 when Air France Flight 4590 struck debris on the runway and crashed shortly after takeoff.  

    “With XB-1, we’re demonstrating that we are prepared to bring back supersonic,” said Blake Scholl, Supersonic Boom founder and CEO. “We’re ensuring that the supersonic future is safe and environmentally and economically sustainable. We’ve learned that the demand for supersonic has grown even faster than we anticipated.”

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    “To design and build XB-1, Boom has recruited a team of experts from around the industry, established supplier relationships, and built a strong safety culture. XB-1 is the first aircraft program to announce a 100% carbon-neutral flight test program. The company’s innovations include one of the highest-efficiency civil supersonic intakes ever tested, demonstrating Boom’s ability to deliver a breakthrough in propulsive efficiency for Overture. XB-1 will begin its test program later this year and is slated for first flight in 2021,” the release stated. 

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    XB-1 demonstrator. h/t Boom Supersonic

    The aerospace startup said a full-scale aircraft (Overture) would take to the skies in the mid-2020s and shuttle passengers around the world at Mach 2.2 (1,688 mph) by 2030. 

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    Overture. h/t Boom Supersonic  

    Before the pandemic, the company locked in more than $6 billion worth of pre-orders for Overture, which costs $200 million per plane, with buyers included Japan Airlines and Virgin Group. 

    The development of commercial supersonic jets has gained momentum in the last five years. In 2019, we noted NASA’s X-59 Quiet SuperSonic Technology (QueSST) plane is set to hit the skies in the near term. The purpose of the test flight is to design future planes that generate a sonic thump (rather than sonic boom) when planes travel faster than the speed of sound. 

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    The good news for Boom Supersonic is that Overture won’t carry passengers until 2030 or at least five years after the global recovery in air travel will be seen from the 2020 virus-induced crash.

  • 'Psychologically' Locked-Down
    ‘Psychologically’ Locked-Down

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 07/14/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Rob Slane via The BlogMire,

    On the first day of “lockdown”, I wrote this:

    “So that seems to be that. The end of Britain as we knew it. … I must say I am astonished and saddened that this has happened to the country I love, because of an illness which will likely turn out to kill no more than might die during a very bad flu season*. Astonished and saddened by the fact that we are risking economic meltdown and the untold misery this could bring to the lives of millions in lost jobs, decimated businesses and a plunging into poverty. Astonished and saddened that a once free people are being caged like prisoners, at a huge risk to their mental health, general wellbeing and future liberties. Astonished and saddened that so many freeborn people seem to be welcoming all this.”

    *[Covid-19 has killed around 550,000 in more than 6 months worldwide, and the W.H.O. estimates that flu kills between 290,000 and 650,000 in a season]

    Months later, and after having done all I could think of to warn people and plead with them about what is happening to them and what is being done to them, both on this blog, on Twitter, and elsewhere, through analysis of data, by pointing to true experts who are ignored by the media, and by careful argumentation, the astonishment I once had for these things has morphed into something like a shrug of resignation. Months into the most dangerous social experiment ever conducted; with no political or media opposition to be seen; with a tsunami of unemployment coming our way; with social and public life frozen due to the ongoing restrictions; with millions still petrified and panicked by a virus that has indeed turned out to be roughly as deadly as a severe flu season; with local “lockdowns” now being implemented for no rational reason whatever; and with Schedule 21 — perhaps the most sinister legislation this country has seen for centuries — being passed without a peep of controversy, and apparently millions still cannot see what is happening to them and what is being done to their lives and their country. What can one do except shrug?

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    When I wrote that piece in March, I intuitively sensed that something had happened from which we would not recover for years, decades, perhaps even generations. I marvelled at those who kept saying it would soon be over — three weeks to flatten the curve and all that — not because of any intuition I might have felt, but because the report which was used to put us into “lockdown” — Neil Ferguson’s “boggy mess” “angel hair pasta” report — could hardly have been plainer that this was not going to be the case:

    “When examining mitigation strategies, we assume policies are in force for 3 months, other than social distancing of those over the age of 70 which is assumed to remain in place for one month longer. Suppression strategies are assumed to be in place for 5 months or longer.

    And there was this:

    “A minimum policy for effective suppression is therefore population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure. To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more [my italics].

    Be honest, those who supported the “lockdown” policy and believed it would be all over soon: did you actually read the report that put us into it to find out what was in store for us? Somehow, I doubt it.

    Yet, even without looking at Ferguson’s hopelessly wrong report (click here to see just how hopelessly wrong), it was plainly obvious that it wasn’t going to be over in three weeks, and that we were moving into an era of what I would call a Medical Tyranny, or Health & Safety Despotism, take your pick. Why? Because once a people have accepted that these actions are right and proportional to the threat of a virus with a similar mortality to a bad flu season, how exactly do you propose going back to normal? If hysteria, fear and panic are created on those kind of levels, rather than calmness, reason and proportionality, all you’ve done is set a new benchmark for all future threats, from which there is only one escape — that is, to admit that the whole thing has been a monumental blunder, and vow never to repeat it again.

    One of the few people in the public eye to really grasp this was the Swedish epidemiologist, Johanne Giesecke. Where others appeared to look not much further than the end of their nose, he was looking way off into the future, not just in terms of the Swedish herd immunity strategy (which is, I think, now largely achieved), nor the economic and social consequences. No, he also foresaw with amazing prescience the conundrum we would face, whereby on the one hand we could not keep lockdown indefinitely, since it would destroy our society:

    “But then, what next? No democratic society can remain in lockdown for many months or years. Their economies cannot withstand it, and the public won’t allow it.”

    Yet on the other hand, according to Giesecke, we wouldn’t be able to lift it fully, because having acted in this way for such a virus, we’d have to continue with the same treatment for every virus of similar lethality that comes along, or even the same one if it doesn’t go away, because we had created a precedent and because public fear would demand it:

    You’ve painted yourself into a corner. What are you gonna do for the next 30 years? I don’t know how you gonna handle that. But that’s your problem!”

    Well quite. What are we going to do if Covid-19 comes back in the winter? Or Covid-20 comes along next year? Not to mention Covids-21,22,23 etc? Or maybe even a really bad influenza? Are we going to shutter our economy every time? Are we going to quarantine millions of healthy people again? The precedent has been set, the fear has been created, the Pandora’s Box has been opened. How do we shut it?

    We have, by accepting the policy of quarantining millions of healthy people for whom Covid-19 posed almost no danger (fact: the number of under-60s who have died of Covid-19 with no pre-existing condition in English hospitals is 302), shutting places of worship, cafes, pubs, restaurants etc, and allowing the Government to stoke up fear, acted rather like a person with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder. Instead of accepting that the world is a dangerous place, life is risky, and we’re all going to die one day, we have instead allowed the apparent threat of a virus to dominate us, to shape our whole way of life, to alter our thinking and our being, to destroy the good things we had, to rid ourselves of the chance to live properly like free people. Most appallingly, in my view, is what we have done to children, who are being treated like lepers, denied the opportunity to have normal childhoods in a normal environment (fact: the number of under 19s that have died in English hospitals from Covid-19 is 16 with underlying conditions, and 4 without).

    Although the worst aspects of the national physical “lockdown” may have been lifted, what I would describe as Psychological Lockdown is here to stay. We see it in the increasing pressure, and soon-to-be state-mandated wearing of face coverings, which is something I had previously associated with some of the more intolerant regimes in the Middle East. The mandated wearing of these secular burkas is hideous, dehumanising, and extremely unnerving, and the thought of my children having to wear these things and cover their faces is most distressing. It is remarkable that people accept being told to wear these things by a Government which just three months ago went out of its way to tell us that they were unnecessary and that there was no evidence for their efficacy (which there isn’t). I also find it incredible that people can blithely put them on now, of all times, when deaths from the virus have almost come to an end, and yet it doesn’t occur to them to ask why — if the things are oh so necessary — the Government advised against wearing them in March. Is this cognitive dissonance on steroids? Perhaps, but then again, I have recently come to realise that many do not simply believe that the Government follows the science; they believe the Government is the science, even if that involves believing utterly contradictory messages from day to day, or month to month:

    In many ways, this psychological lockdown is the culmination of a number of things.

    Firstly, we have put death out of sight, at least partly by building crematoriums out of town, where nobody can see them as they drive past, and so we hardly see death as a thing anymore. And so when people were shown the potential of death coming to their doorstep, and when they were bombarded with spurious figures from this deeply irresponsible Government (Governments are supposed to govern, which requires calm leadership, not fearporn night after night), they freaked out. To this day, people freak out when they hear of another 100 Covid deaths or so, seemingly oblivious to the fact that death claims 1,400-1,500 people in this country every day of the year.

    Secondly, one of our great national idols, Health and Safety, has rendered us unable to look at life and ask the simple question: is a life spent trying to avoid all risks and permanently sanitising everything even worth living? Sounds utterly ghastly, soul and freedom-destroying to me, but it is also counter-productive even on its own terms. The practice of sanitising our lives means that we do not build up the immunity we should, and so ironically we become more susceptible to illnesses than if we’d got on with our lives and let our kids muck about together in the mud. Oxford University’s Professor Sunetra Gupta has warned precisely of this in relation to so-called “social distancing”, which would of course be amazingly ironic, and yet entirely foreseeable. We live in a world of trade-offs and consequences, and we are supposed to think about the possible long-term costs before we take actions — especially drastic ones. But unfortunately, our Health & Safety Commissars have convinced people that it is not so, and that we can eliminate almost all risk. Well no we can’t, and quite frankly who (apart from Health & Safety Commissars) really wants to live such an insipid existence anyway?

    And thirdly, it is the culmination of decades of inviting the state and its scientists to manage our lives. C.S. Lewis saw this way back when:

    “On just the same ground I dread government in the name of science. That is how tyrannies come in. In every age the men who want us under their thumb, if they have any sense, will put forward the particular pretension which the hopes and fears of that age render most potent. They ‘cash in’. It has been magic, it has been Christianity. Now it will certainly be science. Perhaps the real scientists may not think much of the tyrants’ ‘science’ — they didn’t think much of Hitler’s racial theories or Stalin’s biology. But they can be muzzled.”

    In our desire to pretend death is not a thing; to put health and safety so far above the desire to live like free people; and to trust state scientists to order our lives for us, this is what we’ve become.

    A nation in psychological lockdown, unable to get back to normality, because we have accepted abnormality as a price worth paying for protecting us against a virus that is harmless to all but a few, who could have been protected but were not.

    A nation in psychological lockdown, unable to get back to normality, because we have accepted the arbitrary, unscientific diktats of a Government that spooked millions, and are now ready to accept their every imposition in the name of being kept safe.

    A nation in psychological lockdown, in denial about the tsunami of job losses, business closures, resultant increase in poverty, resultant decrease in life expectancy awaiting us, and yet utterly unable to accept that it was not the virus that did it, but the disproportionate response.

    As I said at the beginning, after months of trying to warn people of where this is heading, only to be smeared with insults or met with sheer apathy, I now simply shrug my shoulders in a sort of, “Oh well, have it your own way,” sort of manner. Of course, I continue to pray fervently that the future would be other than the bleak picture I have painted, and as a rampantly Post-millennial Christian, I am 100% persuaded that one day this will indeed be so. But for the foreseeable future, I’m afraid we’ve chosen a course where we decided to hand in the keys of our lives and our freedoms to the Government in return for the illusion of safety. From this there is only one escape — but that would involve something I’m not sure we’re yet ready to do.

  • Is China The New Indispensable Nation?
    Is China The New Indispensable Nation?

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 23:45

    Authored by Tim Kirby via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Usually when there are protests, however minor, happening in a nation that has run afoul of the United States the “International Community” and “Human Rights Activists” rally to push for regime change. However, now that there are mass protests exploding over the United States these types of voices are completely silent. American police are free to destroy CHAZ and other camps however they see fit. This is the power of America, however this time around there sure are a lot of red flags and Communist sentiments in the mouths of the protestors. If we were still in the Cold War the Soviet Union would have been instantly blamed as spark that lit BLM. But interestingly in today’s world the only powerful Communist nation on Earth left standing is getting 0% of the blame. This is the power of China.

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    If we remove relevant issues related to feelings and sexuality the real big story over the last five to ten years has been the rise of the Chinese economy with all sorts of “predictions” grounded in the biases of those making them. The more Fox News/Republican you are the more Chinese “Communism” seems gilded at best and for those on the other side of the line they see China taking the 21st century as its own due to the failures of “late stage Capitalism”. We’ve all lived through years of speculation about where China is going, but finally according to Max Keiser (who is far from perfect himself in predicting the future, but has better results than most mainstream economists) it looks like this is the year the Red Chinese will finally overtake the Rugged Individualists and become the largest economy in the world.

    To be clear he argues that this “achievement” will be due to weathering the global economic downturn that is coming in the wake of the Covid-19 Pandemic. For the tinfoil hat crowd, yes it does seem awfully convenient that the country that started the plague may wind up benefiting the most from it.

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    Photo: China is rising but how far can it go?

    So is China in the near future going to become like a post-WWII United States – damaged from battle but in vastly better condition than any of its competitors ready to reach out across the globe to secure its Superpower status? Let’s take a look at some arguments for and against this and Mr. Keiser’s prediction.

    Arguments Against:

    • China has nowhere to expand to. There will be no “Red Marshall Plan” for the post Covid world and Chinese goods have already saturated international markets. This is what gave Beijing the chance to rise but does it really have anywhere new to go? Can China somehow explode further and become even more pervasive than it already is? Probably not. Perhaps this fact is why the Chinese economy (according to a variety of sources) is starting to slow down if not stagnate.

    • China has economic successes over the competition, not cultural ones. Countries with pathetic geopolitical influence like Japan produce more media consumed abroad than China. America has been able to export some sort of universal attractive picture of itself as a Soft Power aphrodisiac for decades. One has to be “cool” to be a king of the world and China thus far only knows how to speak to its own people internally.

    • It is unknown if the People’s Liberation Army is up to the impossible task of policing the planet. The United States spends $750 billion on it per year and seems to be barely hanging on. Could China really maintain some sort of global presence?

    • The Financial Times lays out a laundry list of social problems that the Chinese have not resolved. From a massive gender imbalance to a surprisingly shrinking workforce that is aging rapidly. China’s biggest asset its population, like its economy is also stagnating.

    • Add in some large debts and parts of the economy resting on the value “ghost towns” and we see there could be some rough waters ahead for the internal side of the Chinese economy.

    • China generally steals ideas and makes them on the cheap, or produces them well for foreign creators. It is hard to imagine a dominant world power that has no ideas of its own producing plastic widgets for its vassals as a key source of income. China’s role as the world’s factory excludes it from becoming the global executive.

    Arguments For:

    • China still has the ideal conditions for a 21st century economy. Over a billion people mostly packed together around the coast, willing to work for cheap with the ability to export everything for pennies by boat. (And, even if that fails or is sabotaged by America they New Silk Road is a fantastic Plan B). China has these advantages, and although others like India want to pretend that they do, in actually they are not even close. In this way China is an “exceptional” nation as it has the collective mentality and organized manpower to win.

    • At the very least China plays an important role in every national economy on Earth. Even in countries a bit more trade dependent on America, they still have the Chinese coming at #2. The USA was about 50% of the world economy after WWII and today it has 23%. China is at 15% and rising, perhaps if it could hit 33% it would enter in to its own 1950s like utopia by 2050.

    • Things like a “lack of free press” or “rule of law” have been very overblown in their importance in a powerful economy and China is proof of this. Any of these emotional “boo-hoo they aren’t like us” arguments are garbage that needs to be burned and should be ignored.

    • There is nothing besides the United States stopping China from using mafia tactics to shut down competition. What are some manufacturing plants in Malaysia or South Korea going to do when the PLA threatens to break their legs? They will probably instantly back down and surrender. If Washington wants “controlled chaos” in the Middle-East – you’re done. If the Chinese want you to work less in a post American world then enjoy your permanent vacation time, or else.

    As mentioned above people who write analysis pieces are very often blinded by their ideology, and when one is an advocate for a Multipolar World it is possible to see “Multipolarity” in everything, but it seems unlikely that our era will truly become “China’s Century”. Just because the world’s only Hyperpower is on the decline does not mean that a new one has to take its place. When Rome fell no other Mediterranean city automatically took its place as the lord of the West. China as nation will remain strong, it will not collapse, but it will not become a post-WWII United States. This simply does not seem to be in the cards.

  • Where China's Unsold Cars Go To Die
    Where China’s Unsold Cars Go To Die

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 23:25

    While every effort has been made in China to paint a picture of a recovering ‘back to normal’ economy with production rebounding dramatically, it appears, as we noted earlier, that the demand side of the equation is not keeping pace with supply.

    Case in point, China’s passenger car sales broke the v-shaped recovery narrative in June, slumping back 6.5%, despite soaring auto production data.

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    So what happened to all those cars?

    We have the answer…

    Wuhan, the epicenter of the CCP virus, is one of the major automaking towns in China. Dongfeng Motor Group, China’s third-biggest state-owned automaker, is headquartered in the city.

    On June 30, a woman was shocked to see thousands and thousands of unsold new cars sitting idle on Dongfeng Motor land.

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    She shot the video from an overpass above Dongfeng’s car lots…

    So now we know, the old mantra of “if we build it, they will come” is thoroughly debunked in the case of China’s COVID comeback.

  • Why Hedge Funds Buy Pet Rocks In Times Of Crisis
    Why Hedge Funds Buy Pet Rocks In Times Of Crisis

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 23:05

    Authored by Eddie van der Walt, macro commentator at Bloomberg

    Even when hedge funds have a world of risk-protection products at their disposal, such as going short the S&P 500 or going long the volatility of volatility, many still buy gold. Why? Because it offers broad protection against unknowns, rather than targeted insurance against identified risks.

    During the darkest days of March, the supposed haven metal fell alongside equities and other risky assets as investors rushed to the liquidity of short-end Treasuries. Even forgiving that failure, it’s a blunt instrument compared with other forms of portfolio insurance.

    Yet the price of gold has been chased to eight-year highs above $1,800/oz. Investors in exchange-traded funds built a stockpile large enough to supply global gold demand for three quarters of a year. And luminaries including Paul Singer, David Einhorn, and Crispin Odey have told backers they’re bullish.

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    The first reason usually presented is the inverse relationship with real rates. As a non-yielding asset with perceived inflation-protection qualities, gold tends to do well when central banks turn dovish in the face of slow growth. But there are more precise ways of achieving this, for instance, via inflation swaps.

    Such a trade will introduce counterparty risk, which is the second excuse often given for resorting to gold. But unless we’re talking about the collapse of the global financial system these risks can be met through collateral and clearing houses.

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    Instead, it’s gold’s bluntness as a tool that makes it useful. It offers broad insurance against the unknown, whereas a credit default swap offers protection against a very specific event.

    This can be illustrated by how it moves relative to other assets. In normal times, the best input to explain the tick-by-tick movements in gold is the dollar, the two having a correlation of -0.5 since the turn of the century.

    But it’s not stable over time. In periods of acute stress, particularly if the stress is perceived as outside the U.S., gold and the dollar can move in tandem. In fact, gold often takes the opposite side of the biggest perceived risk factor in global markets.

    Anecdotally, periods of heightened uncertainty in the euro zone, including the sovereign debt crisis and then the Greek bailout referendum in 2015, saw stronger-than-usual inverse links between the euro and gold priced in that currency.

    It was the same case with the pound during the Brexit vote, when the mathematical relationship between sterling and bullion priced in sterling went from its 10-year average of -0.2 to -0.84.

    And it works on a statistical level, too. Across major equity indexes and the most liquid currencies, the correlation between gold and the counter asset becomes more inverse as the volatility of the other asset increases.

    The table below shows the average correlation to gold in changing volatility regimes, with data for the last two decades compiled on a rolling 60-day basis by Bloomberg. For currencies, the cross-correlation was measured to gold priced in that currency.

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    This shows that the nature of gold’s protection changes as the risk factors change. Preoccupations shift from trade wars to geopolitics to hyperinflation, and gold’s offers the all-purpose protection hard to achieve with a short against the S&P 500.

    So in the hyper-speed coronavirus world, it’s no wonder hedge funds still love gold.

  • China's Stealth Jet With Thrust Vectors Enters Mass Production
    China’s Stealth Jet With Thrust Vectors Enters Mass Production

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 22:45

    A heavily modified Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter jet formally entered mass production this month, according to a new report via South China Morning Post (SCMP), who spoke with military sources about the development surrounding the fifth-generation fighter jet with upgraded Russian engines. 

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    Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter jet

    China held a ceremony last week, unveiling the modified J-20B stealth fighter jet. The source said, “production of the J-20B started on Wednesday. It has finally become a complete stealth fighter jet, with its agility meeting the original criteria.” 

    “The most significant change to the fighter jet is that it is now equipped with thrust vector control,” the source said. 

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    Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter jet

    Thrust vector control (TVC) is cutting-edge aviation technology that is currently dominated by the US and Russia, gives these nation’s stealth jets better combat capability. 

    “TVC involves a movable thrust nozzle that enables a fixed-wing plane to change the direction of its engine exhaust. This allows the pilot to raise the aircraft’s nose cone vertically while maintaining forward momentum so the plane effectively “sits” on its own tail in an aerodynamic stall caused by low speed and a high angle of attack. 

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    fighter jet engine 

    “The use of such technology extensively boosts the maneuverability of a fighter jet, providing advantages in aerial combat, especially during close-range dogfights,” said Defense Aerospace.  

    Thrust vectoring capabilities will allow J-20Bs to take on US’ Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II that Washington has spent several years deploying to allied countries around China, effectively building an “F-35 friends circle.” 

    SCMP notes Chinese engineers were working on a TVC system of their own but failed to materialize into promising results. 

    “The Chinese engine designed for the J-20s still failed to meet requirements, but its development is going quite smoothly, and it may be ready in the next one or two years,” the source said.

    Chinese engineers then decided to go with Russian Saturn AL-31 engines as the “ultimate goal is to equip the J-20B fighter jets with domestic engines,” the source said. 

    “The launch of the J-20B means this aircraft now is a formal fifth-generation fighter jet,” the military source said, adding that Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC), which manufactures the J-20s, had received “heavy orders” from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). – SCMP 

    In 2019, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAF) said an upgraded J-20 (likely referring to the J-20B) will achieve “overwhelming superiority” over the F-35. 

  • What Greta Thunberg Forgets About Climate Change
    What Greta Thunberg Forgets About Climate Change

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 22:25

    Authored by Joakim Book via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    In August 2018, Greta Thunberg first began skipping school to protest outside the Swedish parliament. Almost two years later, her fame is global; everybody knows her name, climate activist or climate change denier, politician, or janitor. 

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    The relentless rise to international fame for this teenager – becoming Time Magazine’s Person of the Year in 2019 – was cut short only by the corona pandemic. Media teams followed her through lockdown, where she eagerly expressed her love for learning and repeated her frequent message of listening to the learned.  

    Now, however, she’s back, crushing the audience records of the Radio Sweden show “Summer in P1.” This 60-year-old tradition consists of a public figure given free range for 90 minutes to tell the story of their lives and choose the appropriate music that accompanies it. Monologues by these hosts, often musicians, politicians, business leaders or cultural personalities of one kind of another, are often deeply personal. Once a day between June 20 and August 16, the host of the day tells us about their great adventures and emotional journeys.  

    When Greta Thunberg became internationally renowned for her climate activism last year, it was only natural that Radio Sweden – with the same biases and skewed climate emphasis that Americans may recognize from NPR or the pages of the New York Times – would jump at the chance of hosting Greta. Starting off this year’s round of summer hosts, her show broke all previous records: over a million Swedes, a tenth of the population, listened to her show, and the BBC will broadcast the English version on July 11

    The format is no stranger to difficult topics, both politically and personally. Usually, the themes are biographical and very emotional: celebrities have been known to unearth secrets and talk about the most intimate of feelings. To this day, the lugubrious words of Kristian Gidlund, the drummer in the band Sugarplum Fairy, still bring me to tears. Having been diagnosed with an incurable cancer in his twenties, Gidlund hosted the show in June 2013, just a few months before he died. Most memorably, he read a letter to the beloved child he will never have, imagining his or her life and Gidlund’s journey as a parent.

    Greta’s talk is less grim but equally powerful – and one of the better ones she’s given. As a fellow Swede, I’ve always admired her devotion and seeming aura of calmness and factfulness. Throughout, her programme is delivered in a calm voice, balanced and sane, even though the topic she addresses is huge and cataclysmic. Remarkably, with all the world’s attention over the last few years, she has avoided delusions of grandeur and resisted having her self-image distorted. 

    Or at least so she says. I distinctly recall her World Economic Forum statement, where she said “Our house is on fire,” and where climate change was “the greatest and most complex challenge that Homo Sapiens have ever faced.” When she ushered world leaders to panic, she wasn’t exactly balanced and calm.

    In this longer-form talk, she dismissed most of the interactions she has had with world politicians as futile virtue-signaling. The listener can clearly detect Greta’s detest for people talking the talk but not walking the walk. Bureaucrats and journalists are eager to snap selfies with the face of climate activism, but take almost no actions in their ostensible support of said climate activism. Hashtags and Instagram pictures won’t do, Greta repeatedly points out, her voice full of frustration and discontent. 

    She recounts her much-publicized United Nations speech, from which everyone mistakenly took away only “How dare you,” when her intended message was: “We don’t accept these odds” and “Listen to the scientists!” She tells of meeting after meeting where people, politicians as well as strangers on the subway, wish to congratulate her on her speech and celebrate her achievements: “What for?” she exclaims, noticeably surprised and annoyed, “Another meeting is over; empty words are all that remain.” 

    And in those few words, she captured the essence of politics. 

    Repeatedly during her show, she asks us, commonsensically, to listen to the science. The problem, she explicitly admits, is of course which science. In contrast to what Greta seems to believe, environmentalism is not a question of climate scientists vs climate deniers – that ship, as she persuasively points out, has sailed. Unfortunately, she overlooks the more difficult battle between the sciences and how the object of their inquiry interacts with human societies. Economy is not ecology. 

    While the full details are fuzzy, the impact that humans have on our world is pretty clear: our carbon-using activities leading to glaciers melting, storms getting worse and unpredictable, harvests and agricultural cycles being altered. That’s not controversial and, to my knowledge, in this Greta is mostly correct. 

    The science about how best to safeguard human flourishing, however, is controversial and a topic that the teenage activist rarely addresses. How climate change affects human societies and how best to protect us against a slightly changed nature is far from clear. According to the climate models of William Nordhaus, the co-recipient of the 2018 Nobel Prize in economics, the optimal rise in global mean temperature is around 3.5 degrees Celsius – much higher than the 1.5-degree target espoused by the UN and echoed by Greta. Perhaps Nordhaus is wrong, but he’s hardly a climate change denier, and he has at least thought long and hard about the aggregate pros and cons of a warmer planet.

    Many of the topics that Ms. Thunberg raises are real ecological dangers – she’s serious and honest enough not to make stuff up. But they’re much less troublesome than she thinks, and many available solutions are vehemently detested by her fellow climate activists: nuclear power, geoengineering, economic growth, capitalist innovation.  

    Indeed, adopting policies that severely cut back humanity’s use of fossil fuels such that the 1.5-degree target would be achievable, are likely to make humanity much poorer than not doing anything at all. As we’ve learned recently from the corona debacle, cures are often much worse than the disease they intend to fix. 

    In contrast to the cataclysmic nature of Greta’s talk, humans have never been more well-protected from the awesome power of mother nature. Damages from U.S. hurricanes, adjusted for population and prices, have shown no upward trend in the last 120 years. Damages from wildfires, so vividly in the news last year, have similarly not been made worse by anthropogenic climate change

    Economic losses due to weather events, composed of both naturally-occurring events and any human-made worsening through emissions, have actually been decreasing over the last thirty years. Similarly, the number of people who die from climate events (floods, storms, droughts etc) has been rapidly falling for a hundred years. While human-made climate change seems to have altered our environment roughly in the ways that Greta outlines, we have at the same time gotten much, much better at protecting ourselves from those extreme events. In no small feat thanks to the fossil fuels that activists detest so much, we have been able to tame nature’s most devastating harms. 

    This is the science Greta forgets about. 

    My favorite paragraph from an IPCC report that Greta frequently cites and a sister report to the one she famously delivered as testimony to the U.S. Congress reads: 

    “For most economic sectors, the impact of climate change will be small relative to the impacts of other drivers (medium evidence, high agreement). Changes in population, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance, and many other aspects of socioeconomic development will have an impact on the supply and demand of economic goods and services that is large relative to the impact of climate change.” (emphasis added)

    Perhaps Greta’s message for politicians to listen to the scientists and take real action has hit home. In one sense, they are already well on the way to following her advice. They read chapter 10 of IPCC’s AR5 report, where they learned that climate change is important – but that other socioeconomic developments matter much more.

  • US Recovery Stalls As Pandemic 'Second Wave' Threatens To Unleash Double-Dip Recession 
    US Recovery Stalls As Pandemic ‘Second Wave’ Threatens To Unleash Double-Dip Recession 

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 22:05

    The US economy has stalled as the virus pandemic flares up. Real-time data shows slowdowns in consumer foot traffic, restaurant foot traffic, discretionary income, and overall economic activity as virus cases rise in 38 states. 

    The US reported its largest single-day caseload increase on Friday, with more than 67,000 new confirmed cases. Six states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, and Texas) have seen a surge in cases over the last month – governors in these states are reversing reopening plans, with 15 more states pausing reopenings. 

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    On top of rising cases, the death toll in the US rose last week for the first time in months, as hospitals in the sunbelt and coastal states become inundated with virus patients. The country reported 4,200 deaths in the last seven days. Virus-related hospitalizations have surged to levels not seen since May, a troubling sign for hard-hit states that suggest the trend will worsen through July. 

    The reemergence of the virus cases, forcing governors to pause or reverse reopening plans have stalled out economic activity and risks the shape of the recovery being downgraded from a “V” to “U” or even the dreadful “L.” Also, a looming fiscal cliff risk crashing consumption as more than a quarter of all personal income is reliant on direct deposits from the government.  

    Courtesy of Capital Economics, which has compiled a handy breakdown of real-time US indicators, we can see the full extent of how the recovery has stalled. 

    Consumer foot traffic for casual dining and malls have yet to revert to pre-corona levels as the bounce stalled in late June. Foot traffic for auto dealers and big-box retailers have almost returned to January levels but plateaued in the same period.

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    Restaurant foot traffic (measured in person % Y/Y) remains collapsed with recovery stalled through June and reversing in July.

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    Discretionary consumption (% Y/Y) shows continued depression for air travel, restaurant diners, and hotel occupancy. 

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    The NY Fed’s Weekly Economic Index does not support the V-shape narrative the Trump administration routinely touts on Twitter.

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    The stalled recovery is set to pressure employers who will be forced to layoff another round of folks. Americans will be staying home this summer and not traveling as the virus-induced recession has wrecked their finances.   

    It’s becoming evident the virus and or the emergence of cases can influence economic recovery shape. Damage from the downturn is widespread, with permanent job loss and deep economic scarring set to derail the recovery.

    Here’s Gary Shilling, the president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., take on what could be next for markets as investors figure out the shape of the recovery is an “L.”

    “I think we’ve got a second leg down and that’s very much reminiscent of what happened in the 1930s where people appreciate the depth of this recession and the disruption and how long it’s going to take to recover,” said Shilling. 

    Shilling said today’s stock market bounce from March lows resembles the initial dip then rebound in 1929 – and we all know what happened next… 

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    The Fed and Trump administration better unleash another round of MMT or a double-dip recession is ahead for the back half of the year.  

    For more color on the stalled recovery via real-time data, here is Bank of America’s latest credit and debit card spending trends. 

  • What Is The Real Purpose Of The Lockdowns?
    What Is The Real Purpose Of The Lockdowns?

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 21:45

    Authored by Renée Parsons via Off-Guardian.org,

    If given the choice between maintaining a toxic world of fear, pollution and violence controlled by the State or a society of prosperity and compassion based on freedom and individual rights, there is little doubt that the majority of Americans would want the old paradigm of synthetic events to take a hike; except that choice has been distorted under the guise of what the World Health Organization (WHO) has mislabeled the most deadly virus in history.

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    The coronavirus crisis arrived in a flash with little time to analyze exactly WTF was going on. Americans struggled to process what is real, trustworthy and authentic as the unraveling of deep political decay revealed a behind-the-scenes subterranean power struggle that has surfaced with the intent on disintegration of American Society.

    While the country is fast approaching an existential crisis on steroids, millions experienced an inner knowing that some indefinable thing was not right with recognition that the early explanations were hogwash while others, addicted to mainstream/social media who still believed in the illusion of democracy, were on board with the litany of spin from the medical and political establishment.

    While the Lockdown could have been a wake up call for humanity to change its consciousness with a paradigm shift – whether it be a spiritual awakening, a political realignment or re-evaluating one’s own personal health choices, since, after all, humanity was locked in a major health crisis. And most importantly, it was an opportunity to acknowledge that the planet itself is ailing from abuse and neglect with CV as a metaphor urging a personal reconnection with Nature.

    In early 2020, Neil Ferguson of the UK’s Imperial College used a scare tactic to predict that 80% of Americans would be infected and that there would be 2.2 million American deaths – neither of which materialized. Yet Ferguson’s extremism accomplished its intended purpose in establishing the basis for draconian Lockdown requirements. Ferguson later retracted his earlier prediction down to 20,000 fatalities.

    With current infection fatality rate at 0.20%, Lockdowns have been devoid of science and are based on arbitrary, contradictory and inconsistent requirements.

    Just a few examples come to mind, such as liquor stores and big chains are considered ‘essential’ and remain open but stand-alone, independent, mom ‘n pops are not. Barbers may be open but hair salons may not. While it is advised to get tested for Covid19, a colonoscopy or other elective surgery are not allowed. While vitamins C and D and Sunshine strengthen the immune system, all outdoor sport programs have been canceled.

    In an unexpected development, a recent JP Morgan study asserted that the Lockdowns failed to “alter the course of the pandemic” as it “destroyed millions of livelihoods” and that as infection rates ‘unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown’ measures decreased, fewer outbreaks were reported as the quarantines were lifted.

    As the official narrative of the Covid19 as an existential threat has collapsed, it is interesting to follow how ‘hot spots’ occur just as a particular State, like Florida, announces re-opening.

    Those new hot spots encourage a reinvigorated debate over mandatory face masks and social distancing with its success depending on a duplicitous media instilling panic and a naive public still believing Covid19 to be more dangerous than seasonal flu.

    WHY LOCKDOWN ASYMPTOMATIC CITIZENS?

    Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead of WHO’s COVID19 Task Force threw a monkey wrench in the works recently by stating:

    what we really want to focus on.. if we followed all the symptomatic cases, isolate those cases, follow those contacts and quarantine those contacts, we would drastically reduce..transmission. We would do very, very well…”

    Dr. Van Kerkhove then explained that transmission of the virus from asymptomatic patients appears to be very rare:

    It still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual.”

    The next day, there was panic at the WHO but Dr. Van Kerkhove’s uncensored comments were very clear as they validated questioning the purpose of the entire Lockdown process. If an asymptomatic person is not spreading the disease but might publicly increase herd immunity, then why wear a face mask or be quarantined?

    House Speaker Pelosi called for a national mask mandate as HHS Secretary Azar reported that Pence and Trump are tested daily and are asymptomatic; therefore not required to wear a mask.

    WHY FACE MASKS?

    To date, there is no standard for what constitutes a ‘safe’ face mask or instructions for disposal considering that a used face mask will be a contaminated bio-hazard material; ergo a face mask is more of a device to require citizen compliance than a safety precaution.

    Adding a partisan narrative to the crisis, the most expansive lockdown restrictions (some with criminal penalties) came from predominantly Democratic Governors and Mayors who offered no science or forensic data to prove that either mandatory face masks or home sequestration have failed to prevent a spread of the virus.

    During a House Oversight committee meeting, the mask debate broke down along party lines with Dems dutifully covered while strenuously objecting to their mask-free peers.

    A riveting June 23rd Palm Beach County Commission public hearing on a proposed Mandatory Face Mask ordinance drew overwhelming opposition.

    While OSHA’s (Occupational Safety and Health Agency) responsibility is to oversee the health and safety of every American worker as each workplace is expected to comply with OSHA standards, its website regarding COVID19 states that cloth-based face masks

    will not protect the wearer against airborne transmissible infectious agents due to loose fit and lack of seal or inadequate filtration.“

    OSHA goes on to inform that a safe level of oxygen must be maintained as an oxygen deficient atmosphere (defined as below 19.5% by volume) creates a respiratory risk.

    While there is no sound science or evidence to prove the benefits of mandatory usage, the NE Journal of Medicine reported that:

    We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection […] The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.”

    More recently, NIAID Director Dr. Anthony Fauci declared masks as largely ‘symbolic’ as he was setting an example for what other people should be doing.

    There’s also a “Risk of Hypoxia to All Mask Wearers” according to Drs. Russell Blaylock and Zach Bush.

    SOCIAL DISTANCING AKA QUARANTINE

    With not a whit of science in support, Social Distancing which is a mutually exclusive phrase since there is nothing social about enforced distancing from other humans, has been attributed to a CIA protocol in use since the 1950’s to break a prisoner’s resistance or a teenage science project.

    In any case, SD has proven a great way to erode an individual’s normal need for social contact, to effectively starve the brain function of human interaction and comparable to other emotionally unhealthy deprivations. As former Vietnam POW John McCain related “It crushes your spirit more effectively than any other form of mistreatment.”

    Rules 3 and 44 of the Nelson Mandela Rules warn of being cut off from the outside world and prohibits more than two weeks of isolation as cruel and inhumane treatment.

    *  *  *

    While the manufactured COVID 19 health crisis opened the door for the World Economic Forum and its friends to activate One World Government, millions of Americans continue to play the cognitive dissonance game with little awareness they are witnessing a government takeover with increased surveillance and censorship. As coordinated violent protests in Seattle and DC spread a thinly veiled political coup, all accomplished more easily while the American public were in Lockdown.

  • Before You Buy Tonight's Dip, Here's One Chart To Consider
    Before You Buy Tonight’s Dip, Here’s One Chart To Consider

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 21:25

    Today’s Nasdaq price action was likely a bit of a shocker for many freshly-minted day-trading gurus.

    After accelerating after the cash trading open to gains of more than 2% from Friday’s close, a combination of the S&P 500 tagging unchanged on the year, Dallas Fed’s Kaplan spoiling the party with comments that suggested the Fed punchbowl may not be there forever, and various COVID headlines (including major rollbacks in California) sent the Nasdaq tumbling to down 2% on the day…

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    This was only the 26th time that has happened to the Nasdaq (closing down 2% after trading up 2% on the day)…

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    Source: @MikeMcKerr_TDA

    BUT… the Nasdaq 100 rallied more than 2% intraday to set an all-time high, then reversed to close down by more than 1%.

    And as @Sentimentrader notes, it’s only done that twice. Today was one…

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    …March 7, 2000 was the other.

    It would seem like an historically notable time for the Nasdaq’s melt-up to slowdown.. if not end…

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    Trade accordingly.

  • Bridgewater "Manufactured False Evidence" To Crush Potential Competitors… And Was Jim Comey Involved?
    Bridgewater “Manufactured False Evidence” To Crush Potential Competitors… And Was Jim Comey Involved?

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 21:05

    Who knew that part of Ray Dalio’s “radical transparency” fetish was accusing potential competitors of stealing trade secrets, and when there is no theft, to radically fabricate “evidence” to shut them down?

    While it has long been known that in the annals of active management lore, not one hedge fund comes even close to pursuing non-compete clauses and trade secrets lawsuits against its former employees with the same ferocity, tenacity and unbridled glee as the world’s biggest hedge fund Bridgewater (despite valiant attempts by RenTec and Citadel they are at best runners up), what nobody knew until now, is that when Bridgewater was lacking enough legal facts on its side, it would resort to simply fabricating them.

    That’s what the world’s biggest hedge fund did on at least one occasion according to a panel of three arbitrators, who according to the FT, found that Bridgewater “manufactured false evidence” in its attempt to prove that former employees had stolen its trade secrets.

    According to humiliating – to Ray Dalio – court documents which were made public on Monday, and which quote findings from a panel of three arbitrators, Bridgewater – which manages $138BN in assets, and whose billionaire founder prides in the way “radical transparency” is shoved down all employees’ throats – was found to have “filed its claims in reckless disregard of its own internal records, and in order to support its allegations of access to trade secrets, manufactured false evidence”.

    The dramatic discovery emerged as a result of a dispute launched by Bridgewater against former employees, Lawrence Minicone and Zachary Squire, in November 2017, in which the fund claimed the duo had misappropriated trade secrets and breached their contracts. However, Bridgewater’s attempt to bully not only its former employees from launching a new fund, but also the legal system, promptly suffered a spectacular breakdown, when a panel of three arbitrators found that Bridgewater had “failed to identify the alleged trade secrets with specificity”, knowing Minicone and Squire would have to fight an expensive case in order to defend against the allegations, the court filing states.

    In other words, even though its former employees – who quit years prior in mid-2013 – did nothing wrong, Bridgewater knew that simply by throwing armies of lawyers after them, it could bankrupt them into submission. And while this strategy has worked over and over, this time it failed.

    “The trade secrets as described constituted publicly available information or information generally known to professionals in the industry, and . . . Claimant [Bridgewater], a highly sophisticated entity, knew that the trade secrets as described did not constitute trade secrets,” the tribunal ruled, according to material quoted in the court filing.

    There was more. Just to cover its bases, in addition to the trade secrets claim, Bridgewater also accused its two former employees of unfair competition after they co-founded Tekmerion Capital Management, a systematic macro hedge fund with about $60MM in assets under management, which received backing from billionaire Alan Howard and Michael Novogratz.

    But here too, Bridgewater hit a brick wall, when the arbitrators found that Bridgewater’s claims had been brought in “bad faith”.

    “Claimant’s actions in continuing to press its claims constitute further evidence that its intentions were not to prove misappropriation, but rather, were to adversely affect respondents’ ability to conduct a competitive business,” the arbitrators ruling stated, according to the new court filing.

    So how did all of this leak? Simple: Bridgewater was too stingy to pay the falsely accused duo $2 million in lawyer fees, forcing Minicone and Squire to file a court petition against Bridgewater on July 1 to confirm the $2 million in lawyers fees awarded by the arbitration panel in January and, in a move that is set to terminally humiliate and expose Dalio as a consummate hypocrite, to have the full decision by the arbitrators made public.

    And while it is hardly news to those in the industry just how despicable Bridgewater’s tactics have been in the past when faced with a potential competition  emerging from its own ranks who may – gasp – steal the fund’s “trading secrets” such as momentum and inverse variance, which incidentally are perfectly public “strategies”, or at least expose to the world just how Bridgewater ended up being a $160BN $138BN hedge fund, what we are far more interested in is whether Bridgewater’s former general counsel was instrumental in creating the strategy used by the fund against its former employees.

    We are, of course, talking about one James Comey.

    Here are the specifics: Squire joined Bridgewater in 2010 as an investment associate and spent three years at the group working with its research and trading teams before quitting in mid-2013. Minicone, also an investment associate at Bridgewater, joined in 2008 and remained there for almost five years. He too quit in 2013.

    What does that have to do with James Comes? Well, before joining the FBI, readers may or may not know that the man who singlehandedly tried to take down the standing US president on what he knew well were false charges, was general counsel of Bridgewater from 2010 to 2013 – the very years that overlapped with Squire and Minicone’s tenure at Bridgewater too.

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    Comey, Obama, Mueller

    Yet what is remarkable is that the exact same strategy was pursued against the two former Bridgewater employees as Comey, now in his capacity as disgruntled former FBI chief, would pursue against Trump: fabricating evidence behind a FISA Warrant, and then purposefully leaking select confidential fact and fiction to the NYT, in order to trigger a Special Counsel probe of a sitting US president.

    Sadly for Comey, his attempt at a soft coup failed, but the same fundamental strategy was used in both cases. Which is why we wonder: was Comey also the mastermind behind the legal strategy used to pursue all those Bridgewater traders that dared to leave the highly confidential fund and start their own thing.

    As for Dalio, who checked out long ago, and is far more excited about his annual pilgirmage to Burning Man…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … in a TED talk Dalio delivered in April 2017, he said the group had created an “ideas meritocracy” by effectively preventing employees from keeping secrets. “We literally tape almost all conversations and let everybody see everything,” he told the audience. Oddly enough, he said nothing about fabricating evidence to make sure any chance of true meritocracy is trampled before it even has a chance to emerge.

    As the FT concludes “Bridgewater has said that one in five hires leaves within a year”… in light of the latest news, it must the non-sociopathic hires.

  • More Than Half Of COVID-19 Patients In New Study Have Heart Damage
    More Than Half Of COVID-19 Patients In New Study Have Heart Damage

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 20:45

    While the mortality rate from COVID-19 is far lower than initially projected, the disease can leave people with a bevy of health problems of unknown duration; from fatigue, to lingering respiratory issues, to loss of taste and smell.

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    KHN Illustration

    Now, we can add heart damage to the list of common post-COVID complications, according to a new study. 

    The long and short of it: Older individuals with pre-existing heart issues, or those with ‘sleeper’ heart conditions which have gone undiagnosed, are at the most risk.

    While we’ve known since at least February that coronavirus was suspected of causing – or contributing to – cardiac problems, the extent has been largely unknown. In April, The Harvard Gazette detailed the “multiple ways” COVID-19 may spark cardiac damage;

    First, people with preexisting heart disease are at a greater risk for severe cardiovascular and respiratory complications from COVID-19. Similarly, research has shown that infection with the influenza virus poses a more severe threat for people with heart disease than those without cardiac problems. Research also shows that heart attacks can actually be brought on by respiratory infections such as the flu. 

    Second, people with previously undiagnosed heart disease may be presenting with previously silent cardiac symptoms unmasked by the viral infection. In people with existing heart-vessel blockages, infection, fever, and inflammation can destabilize previously asymptomatic fatty plaques inside the heart vessels. Fever and inflammation also render the blood more prone to clotting, while also interfering with the body’s ability to dissolve clots — a one-two punch akin to throwing gasoline on smoldering embers. –The Harvard Gazette

    Last month the President of Burundi died of a sudden heart attack at the age of 55 after falling ill with coronavirus.

    Now, a new study has found that more than half of COVID-19 patients have some type of heart damage, according to Newsweek.

    A study involving 1,216 patients – 813 of whom were diagnosed with COVID-19, revealed that 55% had abnormalities when given an echocardiogram between April 3 and 20.

    The paper, published in the journal European Heart Journal – Cardiovascular Imaging, had an average participant age of 62, while 70% were male.

    Sixty percent of the scans were performed in a critical care setting, such as an ICU unit or emergency room, while the others were carried out in general medicine settings, cardiology, respiratory, or COVID-19 wards. Some 54 percent of the patients had severe COVID-19.

    Those with abnormal scans were more likely to be older and have certain underlying heart problems. But after the team excluded patients with existing heart conditions from their analysis, the proportion of abnormal scan results and those with severe cardiac disease was similar. This suggests that the issues were related to COVID-19, they said. –Newsweek

    In short, people with cardiovascular disease, or who are at risk of developing it, have a worse prognosis.

    If only most advanced nations hadn’t been gorging on fast food for three decades as physical fitness took a backseat, leading to epidemic levels of heart disease.

  • Martenson: Time Is Running Short To Brace For Impact
    Martenson: Time Is Running Short To Brace For Impact

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 20:25

    Authored by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com,

    Like a windstorm toppling a hollowed-out tree, SARS-CoV-2 didn’t cause the current recession so much as it exposed how rotten things already were.

    Even before SARS-CoV-2, households were struggling. Far too many were limping along without any savings at all, one crisis away from financial ruin.

    Debts at every level were at record highs before SARS-CoV-2 came along, and the Federal Reserve was already busy bailing out the US financial system before the virus hit.

    The shale oil industry had failed to generate any profits for over a decade before anyone ever heard of Covid19.

    The worldwide wealth gap was already record levels before we were forced into lockdown.

    What the coronavirus pandemic has done, though, is give the ruling authorities aircover to accelerate all of these trends to warp speed.

    Billionaires have been, by far, the largest winners in this story so far.  Ditto for mega corporations.  Main Street and small and medium-sized businesses have been utterly crushed.

    Where the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 could have been — and should have been — a wake-up call to operate the system more equitably and sustainably, it was used instead as an excuse to make things even worse.

    No bank executives were charged or even went to jail for any crimes they played in bringing the financial system to the brink of disaster.  Accounting deceit, wire fraud, and forgery — anybody remember ‘robosigning’?  That was forgery, a felony, and not one charge was ever leveled.  Instead, the Too Big To Fail banks were bailed out and got bigger at the expense of smaller, more responsible firms.

    My point here is that SARS-CoV-2 has laid bare our true value systems.  Some countries have done an admirable job of showing they care about their citizens, making public safety and health their top priority.  Other countries, such as mine (the US), have demonstrated the opposite.

    When it comes to making judgment, I look at actions much more than words. What have been the actions of the US authorities so far?

    1. The Federal Reserve swooped in to assure that the wealthy got even wealthier.

    2. The CDC couldn’t get effective test kits prepared or deployed until months after many other countries did.

    3. $Billions and $billions were smoothly and rapidly delivered to the largest institutions, corporations and wealthiest households.

    4. But only a single $1200 stimulus check has been sent to the poorest of American families.  Well, most of them, but many are still waiting for their stimulus checks.  Every household sandwiched between the rich and the poor has received nothing.

    In other words, the Fed has made its #1 priority the preservation of the financial advantages of the already-rich, while the federal government has made clear that public health isn’t really a priority at all.

    The unfairness and legal and moral wrongness of this next bit of news stunned even long-time skeptics like myself:

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    (Source)

    I object strenuously to any taxpayer money, my money, being sent to any and all religious organizations (I’m a big believer in the separation of church and state).  But to do so to help the Catholic church cover shortfalls due to payouts to victims of institutionalized pedophilia?  Really, that’s just…I’m out of words.

    But more often than not, that’s the business the federal government is in: protecting the abusers, not the victims.

    Thousands of hedge funds and other extremely wealthy financial firms are similarly feeding from the same trough of substantial taxpayer payouts.

    But where real support is needed? The free money river has never been more than a trickle. Testing for SARS-CoV-2 has been throttled back due to lack of funding. Hospitals remain chronically short of critical PPE. 30% of all US households were unable to make last month’s mortgage payment.

    As I said, these dots simply reveal the values and priorities of those running the show.  If I were to use a single word to sum things up, it would be: greed.

    Anything and everything that funnels money from the many into the pockets of the few is being done and done swiftly.  Anything monies directed to the well-being of the masses is being done slowly, grudgingly, and sparingly (if at all).  “Never let a good crisis go to waste” is the motto of current crowd in charge.

    I am asked all the time to decide between Covid-19 being real or this whole thing being a scam.  To which I reply, “why not both?”

    The Elites Have Won

    The elites have all the power and they have no interest in sharing any of it.  They are too blinded by greed and driven by fear to do otherwise.

    In this way, they pretty much have won.

    They’ll print up however much money they desire and hand it out to themselves — after, of course, laundering it through the ““markets”” to create the appearance that fairness was actually involved.

    But we all know it’s not. The data is crystal clear: Wall Street’s mighty siphons assure that nearly all of the Fed’s freshly printed money goes straight into the pockets of the most well-connected players.

    As I’ve taken pains to point out, given all the public’s focus on Black Lives Matter, somehow the Federal Reserve has escaped being called out for being a nearly pure-white organization whose efforts overwhelmingly funnel additional funds to white households.  Whether by design or accident, the Federal Reserve’s actions do more to cement racial inequality than any other entity, group, or organization in existence.  By far.

    Looked at another way, Trump is soothed by the stock market hitting new all-time highs and I believe this has blunted the seriousness with which he takes SARS-CoV-2.  In jamming the stock markets higher, I see the Federal Reserve as also partly responsible for the lame US response to Covid, which has already cost far too many people their lives and many more people their health.

    Of course, intervening in the financial markers to push them higher during an election year is a profoundly political act. Something the Fed has absolutely no business doing.

    Put all that together and the Federal Reserve is a partisan, political organization that is costing people their lives and health while promoting racial inequality.

    Yet it’s given a nearly free pass on all of that from the mainstream press, our supposed watchdog for truth.  Hardly is Fed Chair Jerome Powell ever asked a single daunting question along these lines.

    Our health organizations like the CDC and the WHO are similarly compromised and complicit, too shot through with political intrigue and pharma money to be of any help.

    All of which is both shameful and self-injurious, because if we’d like to avoid a very dark future filled with societal unraveling, then the Fed’s dangerous actions need to be brought to heel. And soon.

    However, after all that has transpired, I don’t see much hope of the Fed changing its ways.  It has proven it can’t be goaded or shamed into introspection or altering course.

    Conclusion

    All of which is my way of saying that I am bracing for impact.

    I simply don’t know what else to do.  We are on our own.

    It’s time to consider how you will provide your family with the basics, the very bottom layers of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs — water, food, shelter, resources, health & safety — if the systems we depend on today start weakening:

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    When people are busy moving down the Hierarchy of Needs, that means society is crumbling.

    And folks are already indeed moving. Literally. Real estate for sale in Manhattan is piling up without takers, while more rural properties are being snapped up.  Gardens are being planted and guns are being bought.

    SARS-CoV-2 has taught many lessons and revealed much.  To me, it’s revealed that the elites as led by the Federal Reserve won’t deviate from accelerating inequity until being forced to stop.  Whether that will occur via social revolution, the destruction of the purchasing power of the US dollar, or something else, I don’t know.

    But I do know that whatever it is, it won’t be the cause of all the misery that will follow.  The true culprits are the current and former managers (not leaders) with the Fed and within the DC beltway who failed to protect the vulnerable, set reasonable policies, and conduct themselves with integrity.

    So my advice is to brace for impact.  There’s nothing any of us can do to affect national monetary policy or stop the major unraveling trends already set in motion, but we can do our best to step outside harm’s way and tend the welfare of ourselves and those we care about as the system falters.

    In Part 2: Brace For Impact! I share the key indicators that have me most concerned about the nearness of the next systemic shock, as well as the key steps I recommend you take now using whatever time remains available to you.

    We are facing unprecedented challenges that are accelerating at a faster rate than at any other time in human history. Every day we have left to prepare prudently is a gift. Use the time wisely.

    Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).

  • If The US Was Japan, The Fed's Balance Sheet Would Be $25 Trillion
    If The US Was Japan, The Fed’s Balance Sheet Would Be $25 Trillion

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 20:05

    If anyone still needs a simple yet infallible thesis to buy gold, here it is from Deutsche Bank’s chief credit strategist Jim Reid.

    Fed Balance Sheet – One-way traffic again

    Last week the Fed balance sheet dipped below $7tn and is now -3.5% below its peak a month ago. However, this reflects emergency pandemic liquidity facilities rolling off rather than anything more structural. DB’s Steven Zeng now thinks it will start to climb again with QE and various other loan facilities to around $8.3tn by year end, double where it was at the start of 2020.

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    Some believe this is already a huge amount, but as the second graph shows, the Fed’s balance sheet as a % of GDP is notably lower than the ECB and BoJ’s. If they were aligned, the Fed balance sheet would now be around $11tn and $25tn, respectively.

    With DB’s Matt Luzzetti expecting that US debt to GDP will be above 100% in 2020 and near 140% by 2030 from just shy of 80% at the start of this year, it seems inconceivable to me that the Fed and other central bank balance sheets will do anything other than explode over the next decade and perhaps beyond.

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  • Demographics, Debt, & Disappointment – The Japanifation Of America's Economy
    Demographics, Debt, & Disappointment – The Japanifation Of America’s Economy

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 19:45

    Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

    I’m not an economist nor a Wall Street analyst.  I get paid nothing to write this, have nothing to sell, make no buy recommendations, and leave it up to the reader to determine what it all means.  Today, just some comparisons of the Japanese and American demographic driven zero interest rate policy kickoffs, resulting in debt explosions, ongoing collapses in births, and declining energy consumption…yet (thus far) resulting in divergent asset depreciation/appreciation.

      Also of note should be that regardless the crisis (Lost decade(s), Fukushima, 9/11, GFC, Coronavirus) the answer has been the same; cheaper debt to incentivize more debt and call it “growth” (without a concern how it would ever be repaid).

    For Japan, 1991 was the conclusion of the last bit of demographic driven demand growth.  Since then, interest rates have been pushed to zero to incent an ever decreasing quantity of consumers to consume more…with little positive impact.  Instead, the Japanese government has decided to do what Japanese consumers couldn’t…grow spending via blowing out official government debt to GDP.  Interestingly for all the government market intervention, equity prices are still down over 40% from peak valuations.

    For the US, the last bit of demographic driven momentum concluded in 2018 but the US went to ZIRP a decade earlier in the demographic cycle (’09) than Japan.  Now the US government has decided even the best efforts of US consumers to consume beyond their means isn’t adequate…and thus official government debt to GDP is soaring (and of course, this doesn’t take into account the 2x to 4x larger unfunded liabilities that did not exist prior to 1950).  Like Japan, the US federal government and Federal Reserve have taken an ever increasingly “interventionist role”, to great effect for asset valuations.  One note on the estimated return to working age population growth in the chart below…it is entirely dependent on the unlikely return to high rates of immigration.

    Annual Change Working Age/Elderly, Discount Interest Rate, Debt/GDP, Equities

    To read the charts, five variables – annual change in 20 to 60 year old populations (green columns), annual change in 60+ year old populations (grey columns), discount interest rates (black dashed lines), Nikkei 225/Wilshire 5000 (yellow lines), and debt to GDP ratios (red line).

    JAPAN

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    US

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    BTW – In retrospect, the talking heads and market gurus agree the market peaks of 2000 and 2007 were “bubbles”, but these same folks are now suggesting “this time is different”!?!

    Childbearing, Post-Childbearing, & Births

    JAPAN

    Below, no anecdotes or happy stories, just demographic facts that drive the real world…annual births plus UN estimated births through 2040 (grey columns), likely births (black dashed line), childbearing females (yellow line), post childbearing females (red line).  Japan (and its domestic consumption) will only continue shrinking and likely at an accelerating rate!?!

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    US

    Annual births plus Census/UN estimated births (grey columns), actual births since ’00 and likely births (black dashed line), childbearing females (yellow line), post childbearing females (red line).  BTW – US female childbearing population is inclusive of anticipated immigration, but actual immigration in 2019/2020 is running far below estimates…and may essentially be zero for 2020.  Beyond that, who knows, but continued lower immigration means significantly fewer females of childbearing age and subsequently significantly fewer births…and significantly smaller present and future consumption (GDP).

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    Demographics & Energy Consumption

    To round out the picture, I show the correlation of demographics in energy consumption.  Charts below are total primary energy consumption (oil, coal, renewable, nat. gas, etc) blue line, year over year change in energy consumption (red columns), year over year change in 20 to 60 year old population (green columns), and the central bank set discount interest rate (black dashed line).  Consumption data is from EIA through 2017 and then my estimates through 2040 following existing demographic reality.  After decades (centuries) of energy consumption growth, both Japan and the US continue falling for over a decade now…mirroring their domestic demographic and import/export realities.

    JAPAN

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    US

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    Make of this data what you will and invest accordingly.

  • Mobile Trading Surges In India As Retail Joins Stock Market Party
    Mobile Trading Surges In India As Retail Joins Stock Market Party

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 19:25

    The rise of mobile daytraders has been a global phenomenon during the pandemic. From the US to Europe to China to India, pajama traders swinging stock and options positions from their smartphones steadily increased as global central banks printed trillions of dollars and ignited a historic rally in world stocks. 

    Central bank balance sheets expanded rapidly as pandemic began. 

    World stocks drop on the pandemic, but V-shaped recovered as central banks unleashed trillions of dollar into global markets. It was the run-up when retail decided to download mobile apps for trading and join the stock market party. 

    More recently, daytraders in China have seen a chaotic melt-up catapult the tech-heavy ChiNext index 40% in the last 30 trading sessions. 

    US daytraders using the Robinhood mobile app bored during virus lockdowns with no sports and confined to their homes, panic bought shares of bankrupted companies, outpaced hedge funds in returns over the last several months.   

    The rise of daytraders using smartphones has also become popular in India. Mobile trading recently overtook internet-based trading in cash markets. 

    Nitin Kamath, founder, and CEO of Zerodha, told BloombergQuint, inexpensive smartphones have made mobile trading more accessible to the masses who don’t have access to a desktop computer or traditional stockbroker. 

    Official data via the National Stock Exchange of India shows mobile trading turnover in cash markets increased 9-percentage-points to 23% since February, compared against the 4-percentage-point rise to 13% for internet trading during the period. 

    As of June, the mobile share of trading on the National Stock Exchange was about a quarter of all traders. 

    Upstox, an Indian discount brokerage firm operated by RKSV Securities India Pvt., which has a mobile app for trading – has seen a rapid increase in users this year: 

    “Over the last year, Upstox has on-boarded a large number of digitally savvy traders from non-metro cities,” Ravi Kumar, co-founder, said in a statement. “Over 80% of the total customer base acquired by the company is from tier-2 and tier-3 cities like Nashik, Jaipur, Guntur, Patna, Kannur, Tiruvallur & Nainital and among others. Currently, almost 75% of the total customer base is below the age of 35.” 

    BloombergQuint notes, “as more investors flock to equity markets, shares of listed brokerages surged in the last three months. ICICI Securities, IIFL Securities Ltd., 5paisa Capital Ltd. and Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. jumped 33-101% during the period.” 

    NIFTY’s rising wedge broke – can’t get too excited about this pattern’s downside break. 

    Retail is going all-in into equity markets during a global pandemic, worldwide recession, and central banks juicing stock markets with trillions of dollars will ultimately end in tears.

    We’ve already outlined Robinhood traders blowing up their accounts by taking out too much leverage. 

    And how will this all end for inexperienced daytraders using mobile apps to panic buy stocks across the world at record high valuations? Well, Leon Cooperman recently said it ‘won’t end well’. 

  • COVID-19's "Inconsistent Nature" Confuses Us All
    COVID-19’s “Inconsistent Nature” Confuses Us All

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 19:05

    Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

    As time goes by covid-19 has proven not to be the hammer or tsunami we feared. It has not taken the large number of lives many experts predicted but it has brought the economy to its knees. It now seems covid-19 is just a deadly bug that will probably with us for some time. Not only has it spread slower than we were told it would but the fatality rate is far lower than many “experts” predicted. Still, this inconsistent beast holds society confused and paralyzed with fear.

    The article below is an effort to give this subject some context and frame of reference.

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    Covid-19 Has Confused Us All

    Over time answers have begun to emerge as to the extent covid-19 will have to impact our lives in coming years, however, the truth is being diluted and held hostage by politics. Because I live in a rather conservative area my views may be a bit skewed when it comes to how other Americans see the government’s role in handling the pandemic.

    Interestingly, it is mainstream media that is largely responsible for banging the drums of fear by speculating the worst is yet to come. Mainstream media appears to be going out of its way to weaponize covid-19 it an effort to demonize Trump and paint his administration as a failure. One theory is that democrats and other big-spending politicians are using all the fear-mongering as a way to  push a massive stimulus package through with little resistance. This is a very troubling development for those of us that expect our government to be at least somewhat responsible and to consider how its actions will impact society.

    Early on I pointed out the “need to know more and collect real information” was crucial to creating a plan that would minimize the damage covid-19 posed. That need still exists. When the virus first appeared, the projection below was written based on the lower edge of what the experts were touting as expected percentages of infection. No wonder people became fearful.

    We are all like frogs in a pot of water and the water temperature is slowly rising.

    If predictions are correct, I see a giant catastrophe ahead. In a city of 300 hundred thousand people, let’s do some numbers. They est. 40% to 80% of people may get this bug. Of those American health officials say as many as 20% may need to be hospitalized, some for months.

    Going with a 50% catch rate, roughly 150,000 people will get infected in my area.

    With only a 10% hospitalization rate it would come to 15,000

    We sure don’t have the beds in my area to handle such a surge. Note, this is 5% of the population.

    In this case, It’s not just about how many people may die but the fact that simply

    caring for so many very sick people creates a massive problem!

    While it is true we should error to the side of caution when dealing with a new pandemic, the problem is that as this unfolded, not only can we not trust the numbers because of fraud and inconsistent testing from one area to another but when important facts or a shred of truth does emerge it is rapidly mucked up when dropped into this data. Adding to the confusion and fear-mongering flowing from the mainstream media is the fact frustrated Americans confronted with a resurgence of the scourge are facing long lines at testing sites in the summer heat or are getting turned away. Some people are having to wait before receiving a diagnosis. Not only are some test sites running out of kits, but labs are also reporting shortages of materials and workers to process the swabs.

    The total failure of Governments across the world to lead us through this mess confirms a bleak future for mankind going forward. One critic of  how this has been handled is Ron Paul, a physician that served as the U.S. Representative for Texas’s 22nd congressional district from 1976 to 1977 and again from 1979 to 1985 recently wrote an article in which he questioned whether the covid-19 spike in Texas was fake news. He contends Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s executive order mandating the wearing of face masks both indoors or outdoors across the state is a violation of the civil liberties of all Texans.

    Will History View Fauci As A Hero Or Goat?

    Paul argues the executive order is based on inaccurate information about a “rise” in Covid cases due to the Texas State Department of Health Services changing the definition of what constitutes a “Covid case” to a ridiculous levelPaul writes, In a Commissioners Court hearing for Collin County on May 18th, it was revealed that while previously the determination of a Covid “case” was a confirmed test result, the definition was suddenly changed to count “probable” cases as “cases.” This discounts the fact that many people will already carry some natural immunity to covid-19 making them far less likely to catch it.

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    The policy adopted by Sweden differs greatly from that of other countries. The Swedes have settled on a more traditionalist approach that avoided a full-scale lock-down and has allowed people to maintain their personal freedom even amid this global pandemic. Sweden pursued a course they felt was sustainable and would save as many lives as possible in the long run. While Sweden’s fatality rate is higher than some and lower than others. (Sweden has 543 deaths per million this translates into roughly 1 death in every 2,000 people.) As in other countries, the vast majority of Swedish fatalities have been among people 70 years and older with underlying health conditions.

    By settling on a policy, that keeps the economy running, preserves an atmosphere of normality, and exposes its young, low-risk people to the infection, Sweden is moving its population closer towards the ultimate goal of achieving “herd immunity.” Some people think Sweden is very close to reaching the point where the majority of people have developed antibodies that will help to fend-off similar sars-covid infections in the future. This would ensure that future outbreaks will be less disruptive and less lethal. It must be noted that even The Herd Immunity Threshold (“HIT”) is still being debated.

    The reason everyone was so scared about covid-19 originally was because after the lock-down in China it was hyped as a completely new deadly virus with no known cure or natural protection. That has turned out to be false but has been promoted by Fauci and many others. This has resulted in vast destruction to the US economy, an explosion in our national debt, an unprecedented spike in unemployment, and the destruction of tens of millions of small businesses. As we look back most people will realize the error we have made by shutting down a $21 trillion economy and ordering 340 million people into quarantine because a small number of people may die.

    All this means is the subject of a “covid future” has a lot of parts that we have yet to face. Successfully balancing the damage to the economy and the mess it makes of our lives with health issues is a difficult act. It includes the complications, health issues, and other negative outcomes arising from covid and all the ways that it can affect you even if it doesn’t actually kill you. It includes whether schools should be reopened, whether it is safe to fly, and if governments are abusing our rights when ordering people about claiming it is for the greater good. Expect the confusion to continue but rest assured that through all this, those making the rules and at the top of the food chain will be sure to remain unscathed.

  • New Court Filing: Ghislaine Maxwell 'Fled' Across House During Raid; FBI Found Tin Foil-Wrapped Cell Phone
    New Court Filing: Ghislaine Maxwell ‘Fled’ Across House During Raid; FBI Found Tin Foil-Wrapped Cell Phone

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 18:45

    According to a Monday court filing (see below), Ghislaine Maxwell bolted to another room when FBI agents showed up to her secluded New Hampshire estate to arrest the accused sex-trafficker.

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    Ghislaine Maxwell pictured in front of her New Hampshire estate (Illustration: Bruce Hubbard)

    When agents entered, they found a cell phone wrapped in tin-foil sitting on a desk in what prosecutors described as a “misguided effort to evade detection, not by the press or public, which of course would have no ability to trace her phone or intercept her communications, but by law enforcement.”

    FBI agents were first barred from entering the property by a locked gate they had to pry open and were then confronted by one Maxwell’s private guards, according to the U.S.

    When the agents approached the front door, they caught a glimpse of Maxwell through the window, trying to “flee” rather than answer them. The FBI ultimately forced to “breach” Maxwell’s door to enter and only arrested Maxwell after she was found “in an interior room in the house,” according to the government. –Bloomberg

    According to the filing, one of Maxwell’s security guards told agents that that the British socialite’s brother had hired former members of the British military to guard her 24-7. As Bloomberg reports, Maxwell gave one of the guards a credit card in the name of the same LLC which bought her luxury New Hampshire bugout last year. According to the guard, Maxwell hadn’t left the property in the time he’d been working there, and had been ordered to buy things for the estate.

    Federal prosecutors detailed the lengths Maxwell went to in order to evade US law enforcement in order to argue that she’s a flight risk who has access to “extraordinary financial resources” and would flee the country if allowed free on bail. A federal judge will decide on Tuesday whether to grant Maxwell’s request to post $5 million bond so she can live under house arrest until her trial.

    “She has demonstrated her ability to evade detection, and the victims of the defendant’s crimes seek her detention,” said DOJ prosecutors in their filing. “Because there is no set of conditions short of incarceration that can reasonably assure the defendant’s appearance, the government urges the Court to detain her.”

    Maxwell wouldn’t be extradited if she fled to France where she has citizenship, argued the prosecution, as the country does not extradite its own citizens to the US for prosecution, according to the report.

    The government also argued Maxwell has been hiding from authorities, living in a secluded 156-acre estate in Bradford, New Hampshire, since late last year.

    Maxwell is accused of luring girls as young as 14 for sexual encounters with Epstein and engaging in some of the abuse. Prosecutors argued she could face as long as 35 years in prison if convicted. Epstein died in a Manhattan lockup last August of an apparent suicide while awaiting trial on federal sex-trafficking charges.

    While Maxwell’s lawyers said in a separate court filing that she has six people willing to co-sign her bond, prosecutors argued she hasn’t identified these people, whether any are even in the U.S. or have the sufficient finances to pay if she does flee. –Bloomberg

    Maxwell’s defense team also cited her long ties to the US, where she has lived for decades. They’re also arguing that Maxwell was covered by Epstein’s controversial 2007 non-prosecution agreement  which allowed the convicted pedophile to avoid federal sex trafficking charges.

    Federal prosecutors called that “absurd,” arguing that the current case involved evidence from two new accusers who weren’t involved in the prior prosecution – and that their case could become “even stronger” as additional witnesses have come forward to offer evidence against Maxwell.

    See the court filing below:

  • Taleb: Tail-Risk Hedges Are Now A Necessity
    Taleb: Tail-Risk Hedges Are Now A Necessity

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 07/13/2020 – 18:25

    Authored by Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com,

    Tail risk hedges are designed to only pay off when the markets suddenly plunge, so many investors don’t have the stomach to carry them. However, one expert on tail risk funds advises investors not to be in the market right now if they aren’t using a tail hedge.

    No V-shaped recovery

    Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb told CNBC in an interview that doesn’t expect a V-shaped recovery like most investors seem to expect. He considers the market’s continuing rise to be strange because it’s been happening while the numbers of COVID-19 infections and deaths have continued to rise.

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    He warned that the market’s rise could result in more economic pain on top of the human tragedy of the pandemic. He added that while policymakers are “printing money like there’s no tomorrow,” it may all come to nothing. He also said that the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to below 0% and 0.25% in March and that it may not have much room to provide further support amid the resurgence in infections.

    He expects the fears about the coronavirus to plague the economy and the market for a long time. He said even if the pandemic dies down, the virus will still be out there. That means fearful customers won’t be rushing to spend money again.

    “And COVID seems to be there even if the pandemic … dies down, [so] you will still have people cautious enough that it will impact a lot of industries,” he said.

    Caution among consumers will still have a negative impact on many industries, he warned.

    Why tail risk hedges are needed

    Taleb believes investors shouldn’t be in the market without a tail risk hedge because of the high degree of uncertainty about the future right now. Tail events are extreme situations that have a lower probability of happening compared to other scenarios. However, the odds of these tail events happening increases during times of uncertainty even though they remain lower than the odds of the set of standard outcomes.

    “If you don’t have a tail hedge, I suggest not being in the market [as] we’re facing a huge amount of uncertainty…”

    Tail risk funds benefit from such rare events because they prepare for the possibility of them. According to MarketWatch, the uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic has been especially good for tail risk funds.

    The CBOE Eurekahedge Tail Risk Volatility Hedge Fund Index is up 48.19% year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down nearly 12%, while the S&P 500 is down 6.2% and the Nasdaq Composite is up by about 10%.

    The problem with tail risk funds is that they tend to lose money during bull runs, but if uncertainty is here to say like Taleb believes it is, now could be the time to put tail risk hedges in place.

    Meanwhile, Universa, managed by Mark Spitznagel, saw an eye-popping 4,000% return in his tail-risk fund during the height of the pandemic. Taleb has been an adviser on that fund.

    The key is to protect your portfolio from tail risks without actually betting on them. The Wall Street Journal reported about two years ago that funds which attempted to bet solely on volatility tend to outperform because they fail to benefit when the market rebounds.

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