• France Suspends Role In NATO Naval Mission, Outraged Over "Turkish Aggression"
  France Suspends Role In NATO Naval Mission, Outraged Over “Turkish Aggression”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 07/02/2020 – 02:45

  France has notified NATO command that its military is suspending involvement in an ongoing Mediterranean operation called Sea Guardian in protest of a June 10 incident wherein Turkish warships off Libya’s coast “engaged” a French frigate via radar. This means the Turkish ship essentially had missile lock on the NATO allied ship.

  The AP detailed in the days after the hostile encounter between two NATO members that “the frigate Courbet was ‘lit up’ three times by Turkish naval targeting radar when it tried to approach a Turkish civilian ship suspected of involvement in arms trafficking.” The Turkish military ships were allegedly escorting the smaller civilian ship, suspected by the French of illegal gun-running.

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  The French vessel was then forced to back off as it tracked a civilian Turkish vessel suspected of smuggling arms into Tripoli amid a blanket UN arms embargo. The two sides have since blamed the other for the act of “aggression”.

  Paris had declared it a “hostile act” – something which Ankara has rejected. The French Foreign Ministry further accused the Turkish ships of “extremely aggressive” intervention against a NATO ally.

  Ironically, Operation Sea Guardian is meant to enforce the arms embargo on Libya — but Turkey allegedly intervened against the French ship to thwart inspecting and seizing weapons in transit. Needless to say the incident highlights severe cracks in the NATO alliance.

  The incident came also amid worsening relations between Turkey and France over Turkey’s increased “adventurism” of late in defending Tripoli against Haftar forces, which has involved drones, aircraft, and even sending Turkish national troops to the region along with mercenaries from Syria.

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  On Wednesday France reportedly sent a formal letter to NATO command in Brussels informing the alliance that it is effectively suspending support for the Mediterranean operation until necessary “clarifications” are made as a result on the NATO investigation into the incident. 

  Specifically, the letter addressed to NATO’s Secretary-General makes “four demands to clarify the role of the Sea Guardian operation, including its cooperation with an EU mission that is enforcing a UN arms embargo to Libya.”

  Though an arms embargo has been in effect on Libya since last year, the multiple players supporting opposing sides in the proxy war have essentially treated in as a joke. Since the UN declaration, more arms than ever have poured into the conflict, as well as mercenaries. 

  

• EU Ban On US Travelers Relies On Misleading COVID Data, Punishes Testing Gains
  EU Ban On US Travelers Relies On Misleading COVID Data, Punishes Testing Gains
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 07/02/2020 – 02:00

  Authored by Michael Fumento via JustTheNews.com,

  With the number of reported coronavirus infections rising in the U.S., the  European Union on Tuesday adopted recommendations extending travel restrictions that effectively ban non-essential American business and leisure travelers.

  The ban would remain in effect until the U.S. infection rate falls to a level comparable to or lower than the European rate and the number of new cases nationwide starts trending downward.  

  Although the guidance approved by the European Council is non-binding on EU member states, the economic repercussions of the action could be severe on both sides of the Atlantic. 

  Prior to the pandemic, Europe was earning fully 10% of its revenue from tourism, with much of that from the U.S. Further, a new IMF report concludes it’s the advanced nations of the world that will take the biggest hit from coronavirus fallout, so there are powerful economic incentives for the EU and the U.S. to mutually relax travel restrictions.

  While Europe’s ban on travel from countries with high infection rates appears sound on the surface, the data underlying its exclusion of U.S. travelers is misleading to the point of being false.

  At a glance, the rate of U.S. infections (or “cases,” whether or not infections result in COVID-19 symptoms) is vastly higher than that of any European country except tiny ones like the Vatican City and Andorra. And who wants visitors from a plague hotbed? 

  And yet, the U.S. infection “case rate” obscures something crucially important that is being missed — or ignored — by the media on both sides of the pond: Despite the high U.S. rate, six major European countries have a higher per-capita death rate than the U.S., and a couple of others are on about the same level. (Maybe U.S. healthcare for COVID-19 patients is better, but that much better?)  

  What really explains the higher U.S. infection is twofold.

  First, U.S. testing per capita has soared far above that of the major European countries. As with any other disease, whether infectious or not — heart disease, cancer, etc. — the more you test, the more you find. So, in banning travel from the U.S. while ignoring the causal link between increased testing and increased infections rates, the EU is in effect punishing the rapid expansion of testing in the U.S.

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  Second, as The Atlantic reported last month in article entitled “How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?” the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), under its controversial director Robert Redfield, is conflating antibody tests that indicate past infection with antigen (viral) tests showing current infection. That superficially scary U.S. infection rate thus includes antibody-positives, who actually make the most desirable foreign visitors because they won’t get sick on your soil and won’t be infecting your people. The commingling of the two kinds of tests, moreover, is made to order for double-counting, since a person who tests positive for the actual virus will later probably test positive for the antibody also. 

  So those articles you’ve been reading about U.S. case rates going back up (while deaths suspiciously stay flat  or decline)? The best explanation may not be the easing of lockdown restrictions, as has been implied by innumerable scare headlines in the media. It may instead be the U.S.  testing surge, plus case numbers misleadingly inflated by double-counting.

  “You’ve got to be kidding me,” Ashish Jha, the K. T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard and the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said to The Atlantic when told what the CDC was doing.

  “This is a mess,” he said.

  Whether it’s somehow a “mistake” as both he and article state is debatable, but either way, the U.S. government has effectively invited exaggerated COVID-19 numbers in multiple ways, including:

  • The CDC does not require COVID-19 positivity to declare a case as coronavirus

  • The CDC has conflated “death with” the virus and “death from” to the extent that the number of fatalities attributed to COVID-19 may be highly inflated.

  • The Medicare program that covers Americans over age 65 pays a 20% premium if a case is declared COVID-19, which creates a strong temptation for hospitals to overcount.

  If it’s hard to conceive why European governments would forfeit badly needed American tourist dollars simply because of surging U.S. testing combined with a counting methodology that overstates case numbers, perhaps it’s because the EU has an additional, unacknowledged motive beyond public health, namely retaliation: Remember, President Trump blocked travel to the U.S. from all 26 member nations of the European Schengen Area in mid-March, before Europe blocked the U.S. 

  The U.S. stands to take a big economic hit of its own by keeping its doors closed to Europeans. In March, Tourism Economics estimated the U.S. travel and tourism industry could lose at least $24 billion in foreign spending this year because of COVID-19 travel restrictions. 

  With summer travel season in full swing and the worst of the pandemic now behind both Europe and the U.S., time is running out for both sides to open their doors and start helping each other back to economic health.

  

• Why The US Empire Works So Hard To Control The International Narrative About Russia
  Why The US Empire Works So Hard To Control The International Narrative About Russia
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 23:45

  Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

  On a December 2010 episode of Fox News’ Freedom Watch, John Bolton and the show’s host Andrew Napolitano were debating about recent WikiLeaks publications, and naturally the subject of government secrecy came up.

  “Now I want to make the case for secrecy in government when it comes to the conduct of national security affairs, and possibly for deception where that’s appropriate,” Bolton said.

  “You know Winston Churchill said during World War Two that in wartime truth is so important it should be surrounded by a bodyguard of lies.”

  “Do you really believe that?” asked an incredulous Napolitano.

  “Absolutely,” Bolton replied.

  “You would lie in order to preserve the truth?” asked Napolitano.

  “If I had to say something I knew was false to protect American national security, I would do it,” Bolton answered.

  “Why do people in the government think that the laws of society or the rules don’t apply to them?” Napolitano asked.

  “Because they are not dealing in the civil society we live in under the Constitution,” Bolton replied. “They are dealing in the anarchic environment internationally where different rules apply.”

  “But you took an oath to uphold the Constitution, and the Constitution mandates certain openness and certain fairness,” Napolitano protested.

  “You’re willing to do away with that in order to attain a temporary military goal?”

  “I think as Justice Jackson said in a famous decision, the Constitution is not a suicide pact,” Bolton said.

  “And I think defending the United States from foreign threats does require actions that in a normal business environment in the United States we would find unprofessional. I don’t make any apology for it.”

  I am going to type a sequence of words that I have never typed before, and don’t expect to ever type again: John Bolton is right.

  Bolton is of course not right in his pathetic spin job on the use of lies to promote military agendas, which just looks like a feeble attempt to justify the psychopathic measures he himself took to deceive the world into consenting to the unforgivably evil invasion of Iraq. What he is right about is that conflicts between nations take place in an “anarchic environment internationally where different rules apply.”

  Individual nations have governments with laws that are enforced by those governments. Since we do not have a single unified government for our planet (at least not yet), the interactions between those governments is largely anarchic, and not in a good way.

  “International law”, in reality, only meaningfully exists to the extent that the international community is collectively willing to enforce it. In practice what this means is that only nations which have no influence over the dominant narratives in the international community are subject to “international law”.

  This is why you will see leaders in African nations sentenced to prison by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes, but the USA can get away with actually sanctioning ICC personnel if they so much as talk about investigating American war crimes and suffer no consequences for it whatsoever. It is also why Noam Chomsky famously said that if the Nuremberg laws had continued to be applied with fairness and consistency, then every post-war US president would have been hanged.

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  And this is also why so much effort gets poured into controlling the dominant international narrative about nations like Russia which have resisted being absorbed into the US power alliance. If you have the influence and leverage to control what narratives the international community accepts as true about the behavior of a given targeted nation, then you can do things like manufacture international collaboration with aggressive economic sanctions of the sort Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is currently calling for in response to the the completely unsubstantiated narrative that Russia paid Taliban fighters bounties to kill occupying forces in Afghanistan.

  Sen. Schumer: “We need in this coming defense bill… tough sanctions against Russia.” pic.twitter.com/L3M9hZg0Xm

  — The Hill (@thehill) June 28, 2020

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  In its ongoing slow-motion third world war against nations which refuse to be absorbed into the blob of the US power alliance, this tight empire-like cluster of allies stands everything to gain by doing whatever it takes to undermine and sabotage Russia in an attempt to shove it off the world stage and eliminate the role it plays in opposing that war. Advancing as many narratives as possible about Russia doing nefarious things on the world stage manufactures consent for international collaboration toward that end in the form of economic warfare, proxy conflicts, NATO expansionism and other measures, as well as facilitating a new arms race by killing the last of the US-Russia nuclear treaties and ensuring a continued imperial military presence in Afghanistan.

  We haven’t been shown any hard evidence for Russians paying bounties in Afghanistan, and we almost certainly never will be. This doesn’t matter as far as the imperial propagandists are concerned; they know they don’t need actual facts to get this story believed, they just need narrative control. All the propagandists need to do is say over and over again that Russia paid bounties to kill the troops in Afghanistan in an increasingly assertive and authoritative tone, and after awhile people will start assuming it’s true, just because the propagandists have been doing this.

  They’ll add new pieces of data to the narrative, none of which will constitute hard proof of their claims, but after enough “bombshell” stories reported in an assertive and ominous tone of voice, people will start assuming it’s a proven fact that Russia paid those bounties. Narrative managers will be able to simply wave their hands at a disparate, unverified cloud of information and proclaim that it is a mountain of evidence and that anyone doubting all this proof must be a kook. (This by the way is a textbook Gish gallop fallacy, where a bunch of individually weak arguments are presented to give the illusion of a single strong case.)

  This is all because “international law” only exists in practical terms to the extent that governments around the world agree to pretend it exists. As long as US-centralized empire is able to control the prevailing narrative about what Russia is doing, that empire will be able to continue to use the pretext of “international law” as a bludgeon against its enemies. That’s all we’re really seeing here.

  *  *  *

  Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for my website, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics onTwitter, checking out my podcast on either Youtube, soundcloud, Apple podcasts or Spotify, following me on Steemit, throwing some money into my tip jar on Patreon or Paypal, purchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my books Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone and Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge.

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• Israeli Leaders Say West Bank Annexation Must Wait Due To COVID-19
  Israeli Leaders Say West Bank Annexation Must Wait Due To COVID-19
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 23:25

  What was surely supposed be the most controversial and provocative move in all recent Israeli-Palestine conflict history was supposed to be initiated yesterday, July 1st, according to prior target date statements of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to annex up to one-third of West Bank territory, including the Jordan Valley.

  Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials claimed to have a ‘green light’ from the Trump administration, but at this point it’s anything but certain. “We are in discreet talks with US officials here,” Netanyahu told a Likud party meeting on Monday. “We are doing it discreetly. The matter is not up to Blue and White, they are not a factor either way,” he said in reference to the power sharing coalition with ‘Alternate Prime Minister’ and Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

  Gantz told his party at the start of this week that annexation “will have to wait” due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic in the country.

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  “Anything unrelated to the battle against the coronavirus will wait,” Gantz said.

  This as the country’s health ministry is urging authorities to impose a second locking down of cities while cases soar again both inside Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

  In reality citing the coronavirus crisis also appears a well-timed excuse to temporarily delay a plan that will surely set the region on fire, given the unforeseen consequences for both Palestinians and Israel. Both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have said such a move would be a declaration of war. Hamas has openly stated it will attack Israeli towns and settlements if Palestinian territory is seized. 

  Israel is looking to seize up to 30% of West Bank territory, bringing it under permanent Israeli control, as part of Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ Mideast peace plan. Theoretically according to the plan the remainder of the territory will be used to establish an autonomous Palestinian state. 

  Meanwhile The Jerusalem Post has confirmed that annexation will not happen this week, largely because Washington has not yet fully approved the plan.

  For now, Israeli politicians will blame coronavirus while still claiming a US green light, despite US and Israeli officials still in high level meetings to hash things out, and contingency plans for what could unleash a next Palestinian intifada. 

  

• Hundreds Of Former George W. Bush Staffers Launch Pro-Biden Super PAC
  Hundreds Of Former George W. Bush Staffers Launch Pro-Biden Super PAC
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 23:05

  Authored by Ben Wilson via SaraACarter.com,

  A new super PAC formed by hundreds of former campaign, administration, and political staffers from George W. Bush’s administration will work to get former Vice President Joe Biden elected, saying they are “dismayed and disappointed” by the Trump presidency.

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  The new group, 43 Alumni for Biden, announced their formation on Wednesday, saying their purpose is to “unite and mobilize a community of historically Republican voters who are dismayed and disappointed by the damage done to our nation.”

  “For four years, we have watched with grave concern as the party we loved has morphed into a cult of personality that little resembles the Party of Lincoln and Reagan,” said 43 Alumni for Biden PAC Director Karen Kirksey in a press release.

  “We endorse Joe Biden not necessarily in full support of his political agenda but rather in full agreement with the urgent need to restore the soul of this nation.”

  Exclusive: Hundreds of George W. Bush administration officials to back Biden, group says https://t.co/vdjM9ezXiA pic.twitter.com/YWu9iqECqT

  — Reuters (@Reuters) July 1, 2020

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  The group began outreach last month, according to The Hill. More prominent and high-profile Bush alums in the group are expected to be made public in the coming weeks.

  Committee member Jennifer Millikin told The Hill many in the group don’t agree with Biden’s policies but agree his temperament and demeanor are what they’re interested in.

  Millikin severed in the General Services Administration under Bush and the Small Business Administration in the Trump administration.

  “We as a group have policy differences with him. We’re just looking to have someone in the office who will stand up and act like a leader,” she said.

  “We can debate the differences in the way we think about policies, we can have a robust debate, that’s what America’s for. But that’s not happening now, and we feel it will definitely happen with Joe Biden in office.”

  43 Alumni for Joe Biden will focus on swing state voters and is planning to release testimonials of Republican officials supporting the former Vice President.

  

• Florida Sheriff To Deputize Gun Owners If Cops Can't Handle Protesters
  Florida Sheriff To Deputize Gun Owners If Cops Can’t Handle Protesters
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 22:45

  A Florida sheriff says he’ll deputize lawful gun owners in the event BLM protesters overwhelm local police forces, according to WTSP.

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  Clay County Sheriff Darryl Daniels announced in a Tuesday video that he will “make special deputies out of every lawful gun owner” in the county if he has to.

  In the three-minute video, the northwest Florida sheriff calls out “the mainstream media” and protesters as godless dissidents. He tells people to not “fall victim to this conversation that law enforcement is bad, that law enforcement is the enemy of the citizens that we’re sworn to protect and serve.”

  Daniels then talks about law enforcement taking an oath “to support, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States and the government…And we end that with, ‘So help me God.’“

  “But God is absent from the media’s message or Black Lives Matter or any other group that’s making themselves a spectacle disrupting what we know to be our quality of life in this country,” Daniels says. –WTS

  Daniels then warns protesters to stay out of Clay County.

  “If we can’t handle you, I’ll exercise the power and authority as the sheriff, and I’ll make special deputies of every lawful gun owner in this county and I’ll deputize them for this one purpose to stand in the gap between lawlessness and civility,” adding “You’ve been warned.”

  

• Truth Irrelevancy Project Update: "Don't Bother Analyzing Nonsense"
  Truth Irrelevancy Project Update: “Don’t Bother Analyzing Nonsense”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 22:25

  Authored by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic,

  When traffickers in intellectual gobbledegook have free reign, the Truth Irrelevancy Project’s work is done.

  Truth is always the enemy of power. Exposure of power’s motivations, depredations, and corruption never serves power’s ends. Truth is often suppressed and those who disclose it persecuted. Any illegitimate government (currently, all of them) that fails to do so risks its own termination.

  What if, instead of suppressing the truth, a regime could render it irrelevant and not have to worry about it? That prospect is the Holy Grail for those who rule or seek to rule.

  Robert Gore, “Make the Truth Irrelevant,”  Straight Line Logic, October 16, 2019

  By now most people recognize war is being waged. “Make the Truth Irrelevant” was published before Covid-19 or the George Floyd protests and riots, but it offers the perspective necessary to understand who is waging war against whom, and what’s at stake.

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  Science is one way humanity searches for truth. The Covid-19 panic and response are a direct assault on what remains of science. All of the hysteria and the political reaction to it are driven by models and projections, which are nothing more than hypotheses.

  It is said that models are only as good as the underlying data and assumptions they incorporate, but that’s misleading. They may use the best available data and assumptions and still be wildly off the mark. For any model of a complex phenomenon—the weather, the climate, financial markets, or the progression of a disease—substitute “our best guess” for the word “model” and you have a better understanding of what the model actually is.

  “Our best guess” also depends on who’s doing the guessing. The Covid-19 models that have been accepted and heavily publicized are the ones with the most dire projections for cases and deaths. The projections have generated the fear and panic necessary to support unprecedented restrictions on freedom and individual rights—lockdowns, business closures, involuntary unemployment, social distancing, and face masks—and a concomitant expansion of governments’ power, essentially rule by decree.

  The truth and logic were made irrelevant in many ways. Any opposition to the substitution of “our best guess” for actual science was roundly denounced as anti-science! The effectiveness of the totalitarian measures had never been established and still has not. There are in fact ample indications that they have made the outbreak worse. The use of hydroxychloriquine with antibiotics and zinc compounds, and other alternatives, as a treatment for Covid-19, based on doctors and other researchers’ observations, hypotheses, and experimentation—the scientific method—that too was anti-scientific. When non-science (sounds a lot like nonsense, doesn’t it?) becomes science and real science is scorned and discarded, the Holy Grail is within grasp.

  Even after the models upon which the totalitarian measures were based proved dramatically wrong, questions and dissent were suppressed and the measures kept in place. Nobody was to question the motives or the political philosophies of the officially approved best-guessers or their sponsors, even after the best guesses were wildly errant. Nobody was to question the good faith of the government officials who imposed the totalitarian measures even as the dire consequences mounted. When the official story cannot be questioned and alternative stories are suppressed, what does it say about the official story?

  Social media companies openly proclaim their fealty to the party line and remove anyone who has the temerity to challenge it. After a slow start most of the alternative media has woken up. Only a remnant cling to the official narrative, hoping any new uptick in cases anywhere heralds the kind of pandemic they predicted but never came, or at least a second wave of the one that did. Disappointingly for them, death rates keep going down and increases in cases are mostly driven by the increases in testing the coronavirus commissars have mandated.

  Corrupting science is the penultimate step to making the truth irrelevant. The last step is obliterating thought. The chaos in the streets that erupted after George Floyd’s death is a flyspeck compared to the mental chaos it reflects, which finds the ostensibly opposing sides on the same side, waging full-on war against reason and logic. A small and lonely brigade does battle against huge armies marching under banners of intellectual gobbledegook.

  Violence or its threat precludes discussion, which means you don’t have to rhetorically disarm and win a debate with someone who’s pointing a gun at you before you physically disarm, injure, or kill him in self-defense. Anyone who inflicts violence on people or property must be confronted by law enforcement with whatever force is necessary to stop the violence and subdue the perpetrator. Peaceful, law abiding citizens have the right to call upon what is, in a rational society, their agent the government to do it’s duty and arrest, try, and, once the violent criminal is convicted, incarcerate, regardless of the criminal’s beliefs and purported justifications.

  George Floyd’s death raises a variety of disturbing questions and issues. The facts surrounding his death are not altogether clear, but will presumably be clearer after further investigation and the trials of the four police. Some have taken his death as an indictment of, among other things, police tactics, police in general, public laws, government, and the status of racial groups within the US. They have the right to peaceably protest. However, their questions, accusations, and condemnations, well-founded or not, afford no justification for violence and the destruction of property.

  A society in which violence is initiated against people and property and is excused in the name of a cause is a society well down the road to its own destruction. People’s safety and freedom cannot be subject to the random and arbitrary terrors of political and ideological zealotry. To claim otherwise is to excuse the inexcusable.

  The rioters are using the alleged murder of George Floyd and the alleged violation of his rights as a suspected criminal to justify the wholesale violation of rights of people who had nothing to do with the situation. You cannot protest a violation of yours or someone else’s rights while claiming the right to violate other people’s rights. It’s a double standard, which is the same thing as no standard – more gobbledegook.

  If a white person is racist by virtue of being born white, but those using that pejorative and rationale are not racist for doing so, the words racist and racism have lost all meaning. Definitions of those words contingent on who’s using them and to whom it’s being applied render them meaningless. The guilt and apologies from some whites for racism and acceptance of their accusers’ claim that it is congenital is akin to guilt and apologies for attributes they actually are born with—blue eyes, curly hair, etc. An accusation that has no meaning or force is an accusation that must be ignored.

  Similarly, “medical science” that warns of the dangers of anti-lockdown and Trump rallies but blesses George Floyd protests destroys the meaning of that term. A double standard is no standard and consideration of either the warning or the blessing is precluded by their self-contradictory idiocy. It is yet another indication of the corruption of medical science, already glaringly evident since the onset of the coronavirus outbreak.

  The premise essential to the argument against racism is that individuals as a matter of logic must be judged as individuals, on their individual merits and flaws, not on their race. The concepts of racial guilt and racial pride are equally fatuous, a cover for people who want to either artificially inflate or deflate their own or someone else’s worth based on the accomplishments or transgressions of people to which they have no connection other than race and who often lived before they were even born. While the motivations of such people vary, it’s a plausible speculation that they stem from feelings of personal inadequacy.

  Any racial generalization—commendatory, pejorative, or benign—is disproven by at least one individual member of the race who does not conform to it. Other than the characteristics which define a race, it is virtually impossible to make any true and universal generalizations (including generalizations about privilege or its lack) about any particular race. That’s on the questionable assumption that race can be even a definable concept in societies where races intermarry. What race is a child with a white and black parent? What is the race of the grandchildren if that child procreates with an Asian or Hispanic?

  To paraphrase Ayn Rand, don’t bother analyzing nonsense, instead ask what it accomplishes. The premise of individuality and the impossibility of generalization cannot be acknowledged because this “war” is actually just another skirmish in the endless battle between the individual and collectivism, which at root is violence against the mind.

  The rioters, looters, and vandals, and their political and rhetorical enablers have been forthright about their desire to destroy, stop, or cancel any form of individual expression that does not conform to their ever-shifting whims and dictates. They are more honest than the Covid-19 totalitarians, who want the same things but are hiding behind the spurious rationale of protecting public health. Both groups claim the collective good as they define it transcends individual rights, meaning it transcends the individual mind.

  Undoubtedly there are people behind the scenes who are pulling the strings of the coronavirus commissars, peaceful protestors, and rioters. Many believe the string-pullers’ long-term goal is to install their version of order from the chaos they are fomenting. However, order out of chaos is a historical and intellectual canard, still more gobbledegook.

  What will come out of chaos is what has always come when that crowd gains control: suppression, submission, stagnation, decay, tyranny, totalitarianism, and mass murder. Coronavirus totalitarianism and the open embrace of Marxism by many of the rioters tell you all need to know. One question undercuts Marxism: why will the people of ability continue to produce for the people of need? It’s a question whose only correct answer is that they won’t, not for long, and it should have relegated Marxism and its collectivist fellow travelers to intellectual dustbins from the moment they were promulgated. Instead, those ideologies drove the murder of at least 100 million people in the twentieth century.

  Misery and death will always be Marxism and its collectivist way stations’ end product. Collectivism, whether the product of an uprising from below or some grand plan from above, inevitably degenerates to the “order” of the prison, the concentration camp, the Antebellum plantation, the gas chamber, or the graveyard. It’s also the order of the pressure cooker, as such measures always generate intense counter-pressure from the irrepressible human mind and spirit.

  “Order” imposed and enforced by arbitrary violence is not order, it’s violence, destruction and death, a different and often more pernicious version of the same chaos it ostensibly replaces. To say that the communists replaced the chaos of Tsar Nicholas II’s regime with order is to equate the infliction of incalculable misery and despair and the death of tens of millions at the hands of their violent dictatorship with a scientific laboratory, a factory, a library, or any other endeavor dedicated to the peaceful pursuit of knowledge, production, and human advancement. That equalization stretches the definition of “order” beyond the breaking point.

  Order is a human value, produced by rational human minds, not intellectual gobbledegook and chaotic violence. Order is a consequence of freedom and the protection of individual rights. There is nothing spontaneous about such order, it doesn’t happen by chance. It happens because people have discovered its necessary conditions and requirements, instituted corresponding social, political, legal, and economic arrangements, and find it in their self-interest to support and defend such arrangements (it’s not easy). The order that emerges results from voluntary choices, not violent control, which ultimately leads to chaos.

  Sense and nonsense cannot peacefully coexist, either intellectually or in real life. Sense will be the first to realize that. Nonsense cannot recognize it—sense provides its sustenance. The desirability of separation is seeping into the alternative media. Terms like “secession” and “divorce” are used more frequently, especially among people who espouse freedom and liberty as their ultimate goal. They understand the totalitarian designs of the globalists, coronavirus commissars, Black Lives Matter, Antifa, and the politicians, celebrities, and businesspeople kowtowing to them, and know full well who has the ability and who has the need.

  The first requirement of collectivism is victims. Its proponents can’t let their victims (sustenance) walk away, so there won’t be an amicable divorce. It will come down to history’s perpetual victims—the capable, competent, and honorable who ask of government only that it protect their rights—confidently asserting their own value, refusing to be victims, establishing one or more enclaves, defending their right to their own lives and free and peaceful order, and ignoring the collectivists’ screams as they consume themselves.

  

• June Payrolls Preview: It Could Go Either Way
  June Payrolls Preview: It Could Go Either Way
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 22:04

  Ahead of tomorrow’s June non-farm payrolls, consensus expects an increase of 3.1 million jobs, however with great uncertainty across estimates. Here is the rest of consensus expectations from tomorrow’s report:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls exp. 3mln (range 405k to +9mln, prev. +2.51mln);
  • Unemployment rate exp. 12.3% (range: 10.1- 15.5%%), prev. 13.3%;
  • U6 unemployment prev. 21.2%; Participation prev. 60.8%;
  • Private payrolls exp. +2.9mln, prev. +3.01mln;
  • Manufacturing payrolls exp. 311k, prev. 225kmln;
  • Government payrolls prev. -585k;
  • Average earnings M/M exp. -0.7%, prev. -1.0%;
  • Average earnings Y/Y exp. +5.3%, prev. +6.7%;
  • Average workweek hours exp. 34.5hrs, prev. 34.7hrs.

  According to Standard Chartered’s Steven Englander, dropping the top and bottom 10% of payrolls forecasts still leaves a central range of 1.65-5.00mn jobs, an extremely wide band that reflects the multiplicity of shocks hitting US labor markets.

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  According to NewsSquawk, the March and April jobs reports saw a cumulative 22.1 million jobs shed from the US economy, and as such, analysts will be looking at the cumulative pace of recovery too; if the June consensus is realized, we will have seen around 5.5 million of those jobs return highlighting the uphill task the economy faces in ‘normalizing’.

  Meanwhile, the jobless rate is seen falling to 12.3%; the Fed has projected that rate would fall to 9.3% by the end of this year, and fall further to 6.5% at the end of 2021. Analysts will pay particular attention to the participation rate, given the long-term impact participation can have on employment and wage growth levels. Heading into the data, we are deprived of some of the usual proxies we monitor to gauge the US labor market conditions; benchmark revisions diminishes the usefulness of the ADP survey, while we do not have a complete set of business surveys (notably, the services ISM will be released after the jobs report), leaving a degree of uncertainty around projections.

  As Englander adds, the consensus for job gains reflects a drop in weekly initial unemployment claims and a clear but more modest drop in continuing unemployment claims, as well as less established mobility and restaurant reservation data. Even with COVID-19 resurgence fears, activity indicators were much higher in the June survey week than in May.

  According to the strategist, given the multitude of stimulus programs in place, a weak number is unambiguously weak. The ambiguity lies in how much the job maintenance requirements of some programs induce temporary hiring. A strong number could reflect economic improvement or fiscal incentives to hire. Job losses have taken employment back to 2011 levels. The Fed worries that workers will be laid off if programs are scaled back, so it will likely maintain an aggressively stimulatory policy stance.  That said, once benefits start tapering out after the month of July, a second wave of mass layoffs is widely expected unless the imminent fiscal cliff is not refreshed with trillions in new stimulus.

  In its preview of the payrolls, report, Goldman writes that the bank will again pay special attention to the number and share of workers on temporary layoff, which spiked to a record high 18.1mn in April and remained elevated at 15.3mn in May. Over the last 50 years, the three recessions with the highest share of temporary layoffs were followed by the fastest labor market recoveries (both absolutely and relative to consensus forecasts at the time). If year-to-date job losses remain concentrated in this segment, it would increase the scope for continued rapid payroll gains this summer.

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  On the other hand, if the BLS fixes the “survey error” its admitted to have made in previous months which reduced the unemployment rate by up to 3%, it is possible that a far worse number could be reported tomorrow.

  To this effect, Goldman also expects that about half of the 4.9mn excess workers that were employed but not at work for “other reasons” in May will be reclassified as unemployed in the June household survey, applying upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Additionally, Goldman expects the labor force participation rate increased as business reopenings encouraged job searches. Correcting for misclassification of unemployed workers, the bank estimates the “true” unemployment rate declined more significantly, but to an even higher level (-2.4% to 14.0% in June from 16.4% in May).

  Below are some other considerations heading into tomorrow’s jobs report:

  PARTICIPATION:

  Analysts have suggested that in the current environment, the participation rate may hold more informational value than usual. That rate has declined sharply, and since March, there has been a surge in the number of people out of work but ‘not in the labor force’ (so are not looking for a job); UBS argues that they may not have looked because they believed they would be rehired; or they may not have looked because of mobility restrictions; their detachment from the labor force may prove to be temporary. “However, sustained lower-levels of labor force participation have long-running effects on employment probabilities and wages,” the bank writes, “the slow recovery in employment after the last recession was an example, and the path of labor force participation will be key to this recovery.”

  INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: In the week which corresponds with the BLS jobs report data, initial jobless claims again disappointed expectations. “It’s not clear why claims are still so high; is it the initial shock still working its way up through businesses away from the consumer-facing jobs lost in the first wave, or is it businesses which thought they could survive now throwing in the towel, or both?” Pantheon Macroeconomics says; either way, it argues that the numbers were disappointing, and serve to emphasize that a full recovery is going to take a long time. It is also worth noting that after the May jobs report confounded expectations, and some reason that the analyst community may have been wrong-footed by putting too much weight onto the weekly claims data, which have recently pointed at only limited improvement in labour market conditions.

  ADP: The ADP’s gauge of payroll growth in June disappointed expectations, seeing 2.37mln jobs added versus the 3mln expected; the prior, however, was significantly revised up from -2.76mln to +3.07mln; Moody’s economists said that there is no information in the revisions, which was more a reflection of the benchmarking of ADP data to the official BLS data, adding that the May payrolls were significantly overstated. Indeed, other analysts explain that the ADP data is based on a model which includes lagged official BLS data, which diminishes the usefulness of the ADP data. However, there were some interesting details in the release: leisure and hospitality sectors added 961k jobs as restaurants reopened; health care added 246k jobs, and the housing sector added 394k jobs as demand firms within the market; meanwhile, manufacturing employment was subdued, adding 88k jobs, which might indicate factories are not opening up as quickly as had been hoped. Capital Economics said the data suggests some downside risk to its above-consensus forecast for a 5mln increase in nonfarm payrolls, but notes that a research paper from the Brookings Institute last week argued that the raw ADP microdata, rather than the model-based estimates the ADP publicly release, was consistent with the stronger 5mln rise.

  BUSINESS SURVEYS: The ISM manufacturing report saw the employment sub-index jump 10 points to 42.1, the largest M/M increase since April 1961; it was however the eleventh straight month of employment contraction. Nevertheless, three of the six big industry sectors saw expansion as stay-athome orders were lifted, but long-term labor market growth remains uncertain, the report stated, though signs were positive given the moderately strong new order levels and a softening of backlog contraction were encouraging signs. The ISM non-manufacturing data has not been released yet (will be published on Monday), depriving us of glimpse at employment conditions in the non-manufacturing sectors of the US.

  CHALLENGER JOB CUTS: Layoffs came in at 170k in June vs the prior 397k. Challenger noted the “job cuts are trending down, as expected, as businesses begin the difficult task of reopening. However, with a resurgence in cases, millions of Americans out of work, and enhanced unemployment benefits coming to an end soon, we may expect more companies to make cuts as consumer and business spending slows.” Of the job cuts this year, COVID has been the main cause, while market conditions and demand downturn have also been cited; both knock-on effects of COVID. The fall in oil prices was cited as the reason behind some of the job losses this year, it adds. The majority of the job cuts in June comes from Entertainment/Leisure companies, retailers were second, services sector third, followed by the automotive sector.

  Arguing for a better-than-consensus report:

  • Big Data. Alternative datasets generally validate this message, with sizeable increases in mobility data from Google and Homebase and an 8% increase in the employment ratio in the Dallas Fed’s Real Time Population Survey.
  • Seasonality. There should be a seasonal bias in education categories to boost job growth by roughly 0.5mn, as some of the janitors and other school staff who normally finish the school year in May and June stopped work in April.
  • Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—rebounded meaningfully to -3.0 from -12.7 in May and -15.7 in April (but remains in contractionary territory).
  • Employer surveys. Business activity surveys improved on net in June but generally remained in near contractionary territory, and the employment components of Goldman’s survey trackers rebounded somewhat less sharply (non-manufacturing +5.2 to 37.6; manufacturing +5.1 to 43.8).

  Arguing for a worse-than-consensus report:

  • Jobless claims. While initial jobless claims indicate that layoffs proceeded at an elevated pace (averaging 1.8mn per week), continued claims declined by 1.3mn from survey week to survey week. Furthermore, the decline in continuing claims likely understates the pace of job growth because underemployed part-time workers are still generally eligible for benefits (and the $600 benefit top-up increases the incentive to continue to file).
  • Census hiring. Census temporary workers are set to decline by 4k in June due to the coronavirus.

  Neutral factors:

  • ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report rose by 2,369k in June. While below expectations, the implications of the miss for are clouded by large swings in the statistical inputs to the ADP model this month, in our view. Our main takeaway from the report was the upbeat remarks in the report itself, which presumably is a reflection of the underlying ADP data.
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas pulled back 51% in June to 182k after falling 45% in May and rising 266% in April. Despite the decline, they remain 304% above their June 2019 levels.

  

• CBP Intercepts 13 Tons Of Human Hair From Chinese Prison Camps
  CBP Intercepts 13 Tons Of Human Hair From Chinese Prison Camps
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 21:45

  Authored by Jennie Taer via SaraACarter.com,

  U.S. Customs and Border Protection at the Port of New York/Newark seized a shipment of human hair from China suspected of being “forced labor products,” according to a press release.

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  The packages weighed nearly 13 tons and have an estimated value of over $800,000.

  “It is absolutely essential that American importers ensure that the integrity of their supply chain meets the humane and ethical standards expected by the American government and by American consumers,” said Brenda Smith, Executive Assistant Commissioner of the CBP Office of Trade.

  Smith added,

  “The production of these goods constitutes a very serious human rights violation, and the detention order is intended to send a clear and direct message to all entities seeking to do business with the United States that illicit and inhumane practices will not be tolerated in U.S. supply chains.”

  The hair came from Lop County Meixin Hair Product Co. Ltd., which is located in China’s Xinjiang region, an area where the Chinese government has imprisoned Uighurs, a Turkic-ethnic minority.

  The PRC’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang put businesses at risk of exposing their supply chains to forced labor and other abuses. Businesses must do their due diligence to avoid reputational, economic, and legal risks. Don’t be complicit.

  — Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) July 1, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In recent days, the Trump administration has expressed condemnation over reports indicating that Beijing is attempting to control the Uighur population through mass forced sterilization, Intrauterine Contraceptive Devices, and abortions.

  According to the AP’s extensive investigation into what some are calling the Chinese government’s genocidal campaign, birth rates among the majority-Muslim group have dramatically dropped to unprecedented numbers in recent years.

  Rushan Abbas, a Uighur activist living in America who spoke to the Associated Press, warned of China’s human rights abuses in detention camps where she suspects her missing sister is right now.

  “This is so heartbreaking for us,” Abbas said.

  “I want people to think about the slavery people are experiencing today. My sister is sitting somewhere being forced to make what, hair pieces?”

  In May, CBP made a similar detainment of hair, that time synthetic hair weaves, from a company called Hetian Haolin Hair Accessories Co. Ltd. That company is also located in Xinjiang.

  Moreover, the two hair companies have both been placed under CBP Withhold Release Orders, meaning CBP can seize the products for suspected ties to forced labor allowing the producer an opportunity to make their case.

  

• Rehired Workers Get Axed As States Pause Or Reverse Reopening
  Rehired Workers Get Axed As States Pause Or Reverse Reopening
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 21:25

  Wall Street opened higher on Wednesday as optimism flourished following a positive COVID-19 vaccine headline (one of many we’ve seen in the last several months). It appears the hope and hype of vaccine headlines and President Trump’s pumping of a V-shaped economic recovery could be in the latter innings as confirmed cases surged across the country as governors are pausing reopenings. 

  On Tuesday, more than 48,000 confirmed virus cases were reported across the US. Most of the cases were centered in these states – Arizona, California, Georgia, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Texas. 

  Dr. Anthony Fauci told Congress on Tuesday that confirmed virus cases could spike to 100,000 – now resulting in some states to press the pause button or even reversing reopenings.

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  Many of the states pausing or reversing reopenings are across the Sun Belt region. The emergence of the virus is due to Memorial Day parties. 

  Bloomberg notes reversing of planned reopenings could spark the next wave of layoffs, adding that newly hired workers are getting the ax once again. 

  Jeffrey Bank, who heads Alicart Restaurant Group, was in the process of reopening his restaurant based inside the Tropicana casino in Atlantic City last week but was greeted by new communication from Governor Phil Murphy that a delayed restart of indoor dining will be seen due to a recent surge in virus cases. 

  Bank said he’ll lose $100,000 on the false restart and will layoff 100 people whom he’d just recently rehired.

  The surge in cases could derail nationwide reopenings – along with President Trump’s economic V-shaped recovery that he routinely touts on Twitter. Data this week shows Florida’s Miami-Dade County reported its highest numbers of hospitalizations and Houston, intensive-care units soared to 97% of capacity. 

  In recent days, Arizona, Florida, Colorado, and Texas closed bars and nightclubs to contain the spread – while Arizona shutdown gyms, water parks, and movie theaters. 

  Bahram Akradi, a gym owner in Arizona, said he was furious when the governor’s office told him his facilities had to close for a second time.

  “No grocery store has taken our measures,” Akradi said. “No Home Depot has taken our measures. No business has taken the measures we have.”

  Ron Smith owns 13 McDonald’s stores in the Las Vegas area, said his dining rooms are closing again due to the emergence of the virus. 

  “We were incorrect, meaning the country,” he said, on opening up certain areas this spring. “It’s disappointing,” said Smith. 

  He was not hopeful about reopening dining rooms until the spring of 2021. 

  It seems a lot of the progress made during the initial lockdowns to flatten the curve are reversing: Lakeland, a Florida city, east of Tampa, has about a dozen restaurants and six bars that fear lockdowns are imminent. 

  Jack McHugh, a manger of Lakeland’s mainstays, Molly McHugh’s Irish pub, worries that curfews are coming to the downtown district. 

  Bloomberg notes that in states where virus cases are surging, the economy is starting to relapse as consumption plunges. 

  Customer transactions at major restaurant chains had been increasing in recent weeks, even if they were still down when compared with last year. However, that momentum reversed itself in the week ended June 21 after infections rose in much of the South and West, according to market researcher NPD Group.

  In Arizona, transactions at major chains had roared back and were down only 1% in mid-June from a year ago, but now they’re down 7%, NPD data show. Transactions slipped by five percentage points in both North Carolina and Nevada. – Bloomberg

  Teddy Vallee, CIO of Pervalle Global, a global macro research fund, tweeted a chart of confirmed virus cases rising in California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona, and said these states equate to 34% of US GDP.

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  Goldman Sachs provides some more color via its state-level coronavirus tracker that calculates 40% of the US has now reversed or placed reopening on hold.  

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  The economic recovery of the US is rapidly changing before our eyes – the overhyped “V” is now transforming to a “U” or “L” or even a Nike Swoosh.  

  

• Stockman: The Virulent 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' Is Back With A Vengeance
  Stockman: The Virulent ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome’ Is Back With A Vengeance
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 21:05

  Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

  As the Impeachment Farce neared its pathetic denouement, an optimist might have expected that the virulent Trump Derangement Syndrome infecting the MSM, the Dems and the Washington ruling class would finally die out.

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  Not at all. It’s back with a vengeance, lurking in the subtext and sotto voce of virtually every headline and utterance from the above precincts with respect to the Covid-19.

  Indeed, the entire Covid narrative is so hideously distorted, exaggerated, mendacious and risible as to finally confirm what’s actually been at bottom of the successive waves of RussiaGate, UkraineGate, the Impeachment Farce, the Covid-Hysteria and now the Summer of Race Huckstering, too.

  Namely: Orange Man Bad!

  It’s as simple and primitive as that. In the present instance, only the filter of Orange Man Bad can possibly explain each new twist and turn of the MSM’s Covid narrative, which has essentially degenerated into a running show trial-like prosecution.

  But finally they have gotten so desperate and hysterical that they are just flat-out fabricating, censoring and falsifying the evidence with respect to the so-called second wave allegedly hitting the Sun Belt states.

  Their true purpose however, is nakedly evident. They are so infuriated about the Donald’s claims that the virus is abating (it is) and that it’s time to reopen America and get back to business (it really is!) that they are literally attempting to tag him with de facto genocide.

  Needless to say, whatever is going on in Texas, Florida and Arizona, it isn’t an eruption of the Black Plague, even if you extrapolate the current elevated level of “positives” for several months into the future.

  So let us go back to the basics. Even in the worst hit precincts of New York City, there never was a random sample Grim Reaper marauding through the general population. The very bad numbers of cases and deaths coming from the five boroughs were overwhelmingly the product of a catastrophic mismanagement of nursing and other long-term care homes and other abandoned elderly already afflicted with life-threatening morbidities.

  But even then, when you compare the case and death rates per 100,000 for NYC’s three most rotten boroughs – the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn – with what is happening in the major Texas cities, for instance, it’s not the same zip code or even the same planet.

  Covid Cases/Deaths Per 100,000 Persons as of June 27:

  • Bronx: 3,346/234;

  • Queens: 2,867/222;

  • Brooklyn: 2,345/198;

  • Houston: 567/7.;

  • Dallas: 696/13;

  • Fort Worth: 500/10;

  • San Antonio: 423/5;

  • Austin: 549/9;

  The media drumbeat in recent days has especially focused on the alleged surge of new cases in Houston/Harris County, featuring the same old hoary prediction of overflowing hospitals and ICUs that turned out not to be true even in NYC – except for a few hospitals at the epicenter of the pandemic in the Bronx for a few peak weeks in March/April.

  Yet just like in the case of the flooded NYC hospitals myth, the readily accessible facts with respect to Texas and Houston refute this weekend’s media blitz entirely.

  And they also underscore the everlasting laziness and servility of the MSM. After all, if you start with a positive case rate per 100,000 in Houston that is currently only 17 percent of that recorded for the Bronx and a death rate that is only 3 percent of what occurred in the Bronx, why in the world would you even think that Houston is teetering on the edge of a medical calamity?

  That’s especially the case if you happen to have the basic knowledge that Houston sports one of the great medical complexes of the entire world. That is, it’s a health care rich community experiencing only a tiny fraction of the Covid case load that happened in NYC.

  Beyond that, we are no longer in the horse and buggy age, obviously. Given that patients can be reallocated to other communities if need be, the relevant hospital capacity is not just Houston’s, but capacity in other places around the state that are not experiencing the same level of Covid case increases now occurring in Houston.

  So here are the statewide facts: As of June 25, Texas had 54,700 staffed acute care hospital beds, but only 41,950 were being used, implying a occupancy rate of just 76.7 percent and 12,750 empty beds still available.

  Moreover, only about 5,000 beds representing 12 percent of the current census were occupied by confirmed or suspected Covid patients. So as of June 25 the state had nearly 2.5X more empty hospital beds than it had Covid patients, notwithstanding the surge of new cases and hospitalizations during the month of June.

  In fact, that’s not the half of it. Owing to seasonal factors, the number of empty hospital beds has actually been rising during the spring months even in the face of the soaring Covid caseload.

  That’s right. On March 18, Texas had 46,550 occupied hospital beds, reflecting an occupancy rate of 85 percent or well above the 76.7 percent level as of June 25.

  But back in March virtually none of these occupied beds were attributable to Covid patients. That’s because at that point there had been only be 83 confirmed Covid cases and 2 deaths reported for the entire state!

  By then what happened over the next three months, as the Covid caseload built up from zero to the present 5,000, is that even more beds emptied out due to:

  – state orders prohibiting elective surgeries and other treatments;

  – normal seasonal declines in occupancy; and

  – aggressive reclassification of patients admitted for other reasons as Covid patients.

  As to the latter point, it seems that Texas health officials started logging every single COVID-19-positive patient in the state as a COVID-19 hospitalization, even if the patients themselves were admitted seeking treatment for something other than the coronavirus.

  As Lindsey Rosales, a spokesman for the Texas Department of Public Health Services, confirmed recently to an independent investigator:

  ‘The number of hospitalized patients includes patients with a lab-confirmed case of COVID-19 even if the person is admitted to the hospital for a different reason,’ Rosales said.

  Moreover, nearly everyone admitted for some other medical condition – and presumably asymptomatic for Covid – gets tested for Covid-19 before other treatments or surgeries are permitted:

  Texas Health Resources, one of the state’s largest hospital systems, says on its website that its ‘patients [are] tested before most procedures.’ Elective surgeries and other medical procedures in Texas have gone up in recent weeks as the state has gradually re-opened following its lockdown.

  In other words, the first wave of Lockdowns created a huge backlog of demand for elective surgeries and other discretionary treatments, which were banned by state authorities. But once those bans were lifted and people got in the hospital for deferred treatments, they were tested for Covid and became the statistical gruel for the so-called second wave.

  But even then, the Texas hospital statistics over the last three months make mincemeat out of the national media’s weekend narrative that Texas hospitals will soon be overflowing into the hallways. To wit, here is the trend of unused acute care beds in the Texas hospital system:

  • – 3/18: 8,155;

  • – 4/1: 18,411;

  • – 4/15: 21,489;

  • – 4/29: 19,432;

  • – 5/20: 16,035;

  • – 5/27: 15,315;

  • – 6/3: 15,219;

  • – 6/10: 13,271;

  • – 6/17: 14,993;

  • – 6/25: 12,571

  In short, Texas had gone from virtually no Covid cases or deaths on March 18 to 131,917 cases and 2,296 deaths by June 25, but it actually had 56 percent more empty hospital beds on the latter date!

  You can’t make this stuff up. The MSM is so intoxicated by Orange Man Bad that it has essentially turned journalism into a kangaroo court of juvenile imprecations.

  Nor are we attempting to deceptively drown the case in statewide averages. As of last week, the Houston area alone had 12,458 staffed acute care beds (23 percent of the statewide total), but 2,675 or 21 percent of these were empty; and on top of that they had an additional surge capacity of another 925 beds.

  That’s especially salient because the rise in cases in Texas and Houston has generally been among a much younger population than earlier in the pandemic, and the need has been for exactly these kinds of general beds, not ICU beds.

  So the fact is, as of last week the Houston area hospitals had just 795 lab confirmed Covid patients, representing just 8 percent of their 9,785 daily census. That also means that given Houston’s 3,600 beds of remaining surge capacity, they could actually accommodate a 4X increase in their current Covid caseload.

  As it happened, even the leadership of the Houston health care community finally had enough from CNN, NBC, and the rest of the Covid Calamity Howlers, and struck back this weekend with a resounding denial of this spurious crisis narrative.

  For instance, the CEO of one Houston’s leading hospitals, Memorial Hermann, pulled no punches:

  We actually still think we have plenty of capacity to meet the demand for Covid, as well as non-Covid patients. We’re always busy in the summertime, and what we’re seeing now is a typical summer for us.

  Callender, whose not-for-profit health system has 17 hospitals in the Houston area, stressed that the medical network’s capacity is ‘constantly in flux’ and needing to be managed. ‘But right now, we’re able to do that very well,’ he said.

  ‘Across our system, we have about 4,000 beds that we can bring into play’ for intensive care, he said. ‘Right now, only about 30 percent are being utilized for Covid care, so we still have plenty of capacity for Covid patients as well as patients who need hospitalization for other illnesses.’

  Doctors and nurses also have learned how to better treat Covid-19 patients after three months of its presence, said Callender, who joined Memorial Hermann in 2019.

  ‘We’re seeing a slightly lower rate in terms of the number of typical hospital bed patients who convert to a need for ICU hospitalization. We’re also using ventilators less frequently,’ he said. ‘We have more drugs at our disposable that we know help limit the severity and duration of the illness. So overall we’re faring better than we did just a couple months ago.’

  Likewise, chimed in Dr. Marc Boom, President and CEO of another leading institution, Houston Methodist:

  The number of hospitalizations are ‘being misinterpreted,’ said Houston Methodist CEO Marc Boom, ‘and, quite frankly, we’re concerned that there is a level of alarm in the community that is unwarranted right now.’

  ‘We do have the capacity to care for many more patients, and have lots of fluidity and ability to manage,’ Boom said.

  Boom pointed out that his hospital one year ago was also at 95 percent ICU capacity – long before Covid was a thing!

  That’s right. Apparently, 95 percent utilization of the ICU is a typical June condition, not the sign of the Covid Apocalypse. And contrary to the heated headlines on the MSM, only about 25 percent of Houston’s fully occupied ICU’s are accounted for by Covid patients.

  Again from Boom:

  ‘It is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s,’ he said. ‘That’s how all hospitals operate.’

  …the hospital ‘[has] many levers in our ability to adjust our ICU,’ he said, claiming that the hospital capacity regularly reported by the media is ‘base’ capacity rather than surge capacity.

  Boom also alluded to hospitals’ ability to turn regular beds into ICU beds as well as to turn recovery, and pre- and post surgical areas into ICU areas if needed as a kind of coronavirus ‘flex area.’

  Specifically, there are about 2,200 ICU beds in the Houston service area, but another 500 beds could be added to this after such planned for conversions and re-purposings. And Boom also pointed out an even more salient point:

  Boom said overall, hospitals are seeing younger COVID-19 patients, who stay for a shorter period of time, and fewer deaths. Houston Methodist CEO Dr. Marc Boom told CNBC on Monday that the demographics of the outbreak have ‘flipped’ and that the mostly-younger people arriving in the state’s hospitals often don’t require ICU beds, even though many do get very sick.

  Finally, there was this rebuke to the smirking CNN anchor, who on Saturday had been bemoaning that the situation was allegedly so desperate that a Houston children’s hospital had been drafted into Covid service at great risk to the children.

  Not at all, according to Mark Wallace, Texas Children’s Hospital president and CEO. Actually, this was just part of the systems’ surge plan:

  Texas Children’s started accepting adult COVID-19 positive patients this week and is currently operating at a 74 percent ICU occupancy, Wallace said.

  ‘We have the ability to take care of all of the Houstonians that need a critical care environment, that need to be operated on, or acute care,’ Wallace said.

  As we said, the MSM, the Dems and the Washington ruling class are literally rabid with Orange Mad Bad.

  The recent ballyhooed Covid surge and hospital capacity crisis in Texas is just one more case in point.

  

• Taiwan Navy Holds Live-Fire Drills With F-16s Dropping Bomb Nicknamed "The Hammer"
  Taiwan Navy Holds Live-Fire Drills With F-16s Dropping Bomb Nicknamed “The Hammer”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 20:45

  Here we go again: the Taiwan Navy is conducing a show of force live-fire drill Wednesday which involves a fleet of F-16 fighter jets simulating attacks on enemy ships off Taiwan’s eastern coast, according to the country’s national news agency CNA.

  Crucially the exercises involve the live deployment of multiple MK-84 general purpose bombs, which are large American-made “heavy unguided bombs” which weigh about 2,000 pounds.

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  CNA describes of the bomb in what’s no doubt a hugely provocative signal to Beijing: “On impact, the MK-84 can blow apart buildings and other structures. It can penetrate metal up to 38 centimeters and concrete up to 3.4 meters, depending on the height from which it is dropped, and it causes lethal fragmentation across a radius of 370m.”

  The free-fall released MK-84 was used widely by the United States in Vietnam and is nicknamed “the Hammer” – given its significant destructive power and blast radius. As it’s unguided it’s also deemed among an arsenal of “dumb bombs”.

  Torpedo drills were also said to be part of these newest exercises, though there were no reported live torpedo firings. 

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  But the Taiwan Navy is expected to carry out its first torpedo live-fire since 2007 on July 15, according to military sources cited in CNA.

  Even throughout the pandemic China has of late made multiple intrusions in Taiwan via fighter jets and warships, also during provocative war games meant to answer Taipei and its US backers.

  

• Mexico Now Has The World's 6th-Deadliest Outbreak, Passing Spain: Live Updates
  Mexico Now Has The World’s 6th-Deadliest Outbreak, Passing Spain: Live Updates
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 20:39

  Summary:

  • Mexico passes Spain as world’s 6th deadliest outbreak
  • Miami-Dade makes mask wearing mandatory in public
  • Texas reports record jump in cases, most deaths in 6 weeks
  • Pennsylvania 4th state to see record jump in COVID-19 cases
  • North Carolina reports record jump in COVID-19 cases
  • Cali orders 19 counties to close
  • Trump does U-turn on masks
  • California orders 19 counties including LA to close restaurants dining for 3 weeks
  • Apple closes another 30 stores
  • Atlanta Airport closes
  • California reports another record jump
  • Houston ICUS at 102% capacity
  • Nevada reports third-highest daily total yet
  • NY releases Wednesday numbers
  • Arizona reports another record daily case count
  • NYC delays return of indoor dining
  • Florida reports daily cases for last 24 hours
  • Goldman says 40% of US has rolled back economic reopening or put them on hold
  • Oxford scientist warns vaccine by end of year far from guaranteed
  • Pfizer vaccine headline sends futures higher
  • US reported 48k+ new cases yesterday
  • Australia locks down 300k in Victoria
  • Brazil imposes travel ban as deaths near 60k
  • Tokyo reports most cases since state of emergency lifted
  • German infection rate below R for 7th day

  * * *

  Update (2030ET): Mexico’s death toll just hit 28,510, surpassing Spain as the world’s sixth-deadliest outbreak as officials reported another 741 new deaths. Mexican public health officials reported 5,681 new cases on Wednesday, bringing the national case tally to 231,770. Whistleblowers at hospitals around Mexico City, the epicenter of Mexico’s outbreak, and elsewhere have accused the government of conspiring to suppress the true number of deaths.

  * * *

  Update (2015ET): Following Apple’s third wave of store closures announced earlier today, McDonald’s has just instructed its franchisees to close indoor dining across the US.

  McDonald’s Corp. is pausing the resumption of all dine-in services in its U.S. restaurants as the coronavirus outbreak flares up in areas across the country.

  The halt will last for 21 days, the fast-food chain said in an internal letter that was viewed by Bloomberg. Locations that have already reopened their dining rooms should consult guidance from local and state officials on whether to roll back services, according to the letter, which was signed by Joe Erlinger, McDonald’s U.S. president, and Mark Salebra, head of the National Franchisee Leadership Alliance.

  * * *

  Update (1800ET): Miami-Dade just joined the city of Jacksonville by independently mandating the wearing of masks in public.

  • MIAMI-DADE TO REQUIRES MASKS IN ALL PUBLIC SPACES

  * * *

  Update (1650ET): In a repeat of yesterday’s action, more dire data has arrived out of Texas which just reported another record jump in new cases – its second daily record in a row – along with the most single-day deaths in 6 weeks.

  • TEXAS NEW VIRUS CASES TOP 8,000; DEATHS JUMP MOST IN 6 WEEKS

  The new daily total was 8,076, a full 1,000 cases higher than yesterday’s total.

  Texas reports 8,076 new cases today, another record. pic.twitter.com/TxRMdwq22m

  — Patrick W. Watson (@PatrickW) July 1, 2020

  * * *

  Update (1530ET): PA just became the latest state to order people to wear masks outside the home after the state reported its largest one-day jump in COVID-19 cases, driven largely by an increase in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties. Only a dozen states or so now don’t require people to wear masks in public.

  Meanwhile, US virus cases climbed 1.8% on Wednesday, slightly slower than yesterday’s 1.9%, which is also the 7-day average.

  * * *

  Update (1510ET): North Carolina just became at least the third US state to report a record jump in new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday by reporting its highest day of confirmed COVID-19 cases, with another 1,843. Elsewhere, the new case totals were fairly high. Louisiana reported 2,041 new coronavirus cases, Tennessee 1,806 and Alabama 917.

  The news comes as the Guardian reports on ‘cover-ups’ at slaughterhouses in North Carolina, as companies quietly report COVID-19 cases infecting workers at the plant, but it’s unclear how – or even if – those cases are being counted toward the statewide total.

  Meanwhile, President Trump just followed Mike Pence by publicly declaring support for mask wearing, with the president saying he supports wearing masks in public, though he refused to commit to wearing one – even as Chuck Grassley pushed him to – and added that mask-wearing shouldn’t be mandatory. During an interview with Fox Business Wednesday afternoon, Trump made a few other more conciliatory comments, like voices support for a higher minimum wage (he said he would soon have an announcement and that he ‘disagrees with more Republicans’ on the issue) while also express support for Jerome Powell, saying he had grown more comfortable with the Fed chairman’s performance (and why not? the central bank is doing everything that Trump wants it to do).

  In addition to ordering restaurants in LA County to cease offering indoor dining for three weeks, the state of California is also ordering an additional 18 counties to close restaurant dining.

  * * *

  Update (1426ET):   California Gov Gavin News just ordered all LA Restaurants to close for three weeks, though he said those that are able can continue serving takeout and delivery.

  Gov. Newsom to Order Immediate Closure of LA Restaurants For Next Three Weeks https://t.co/xOyoIYyG7A #california #bar pic.twitter.com/Z6XbC0891F

  — Angel City Buzz (@Angel_City_Buzz) July 1, 2020

  Meanwhile, Apple just announced that it’s closing another 30 stores as the US outbreak worsens. The new closures will bring its total closures in the US in recent weeks to 77. Alabama, California, Georgia, Idaho, Lousiana, Nevada, and Oklahoma will see Apple store closures tomorrow. Other stores in Florida, Mississippi, Texas, and Utah are closed as of Wednesday. Apple has 271 stores in the US, meaning nearly 30% of its stores have been shut.

  * * *

  Update (1400ET): Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson Airport has closed its TSA checkpoint after employee tested positive.

  • ATLANTA AIRPORT CLOSES TSA CHECKPOINT AFTER TSA EMPLOYEE TESTS POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS – CBS46

  * * *

  Update (1345ET): California just reported another record jump in total virus cases, with nearly 1,000 new cases reported on Tuesday, a day that often sees a bump in new cases following the weekend backlog. The number is about 50% higher than Monday’s total. The state’s last record total, nearly 9k cases in a day, was reported 2 days ago on June 29.

  NEW: CA #coronavirus daily case count smashes record again, reaching 9740 in a single day. The previous high was 7149 set 1 week ago.

  In the past day, 110 people died as a result of #COVID19. California has not seen that many deaths since April when 115 died in a single day.

  — Ana Cabrera (@AnaCabrera) July 1, 2020

  • CALIFORNIA POSTS RECORD 9,740 NEW VIRUS CASES; 4.4% DAILY JUMP
  • CALIFORNIA REPORTS 110 ADDITIONAL COVID-19 DEATHS

  It brought the state’s case total to 232,657. The more notable daily total is the number of deaths reported on Tuesday; the 110 deaths is more than double yesterday’s total.

  * * *

  Update (1310ET): Houston’s Texas Medical Center, which operates four hospitals in the city, just reported that its COVID-19 ICU capacity is at 102%, meaning patients are beginning to be diverted to its “overflow” care facilities (including a stadium). That’s up from 97% capacity yesterday.

  • HOUSTON-AREA ICUS REACH 102% OF CAPACITY: TEXAS MEDICAL CENTER

  Meanwhile, as the MSM, including the Associated Press, that bastion of ‘neutral unbiased reporting’, continues to push the ‘nobody was infected at the protests’ narrative, we’d like to remind the world of this local news report from two weeks ago.

  Roughly two weeks ago, Shamone Turner and her friends, joined a large demonstration for George Floyd. An estimated 60,000 people were in attendance, marching from Discovery Green to Houston’s City Hall.

  “I actually got sick the day after the march,” said Turner. “I could not move out of the bed. I was in the bed just sighing.”

  According to Turner, several of her friends with her at the march also tested positive for the Coronavirus. Turner says they were all wearing masks.

  “I definitely don’t regret getting the COVID, because I was out there doing the right thing for the right cause,” said Turner.
  The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continues to climb across Texas.

  Just some food for thought…

  …meanwhile, here’s a chart of the curves for each of the worst offending states.

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  * * *

  Update (1300ET): Nevada state health officials just reported the state’s third-largest daily total yet, with 645 new cases reported Wednesday, bringing the case total to 19,101. 4 more deaths were reported, bringing the statewide total to 511. A total of 331,318 tests have been performed statewide since the outbreak started.

  Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and some of the surrounding area, remains the biggest hotspot in the state.

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  * * *

  Update (1150ET): New York Gov Andrew Cuomo just released the state’s latest numbers. Today’s 11 deaths is higher than the 5 seen yesterday.

  Today’s update on the numbers:

  56,710 tests were performed yesterday. 625 tests came back positive (1.1% of total).

  Total hospitalizations fell to 879.

  Sadly, there were 11 COVID fatalities yesterday. pic.twitter.com/brF7hs0q7a

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) July 1, 2020

  After confirming that NYC won’t begin indoor dining next week, the governor added that he’s expanding testing even further to include “all” New Yorkers, as “new problems” have been identified in New York City. As for the timing for indoor dining in NYC, Cuomo said indoor dining will be banned “until the facts change” and/or “until it’s safe and prudent”.

  He blamed the decision on a ‘partial lack of individual compliance’ and a ‘partial lack of local enforcement’…too bad he can’t just say ‘the protests’.

  Beginning today we are expanding our testing criteria statewide to ALL New Yorkers.

  There is enough capacity.

  Get tested.

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) July 1, 2020

  Sounds like more hollow pandering to us.

  * * *

  Update (1130ET): Arizona has reported a second-straight record tally of daily infections, and a record daily death toll, adding to fears that deaths might be climbing with a lag. Cases climbed by 4,878 (+6.2%). while deaths rose by 88.

  • ARIZONA REPORTS RECORD ONE-DAY INCREASE IN VIRUS CASES

  These numbers bring the state’s totals to 84,092 COVID-19 cases and 1,720 fatalities. The previous single-day highs were 4,682 yesterday and 79 deaths from June 24.

  The market isn’t taking the double daily record (cases AND deaths) too well.

  KTAR News says the daily reports in Arizona present data after the state receives statistics and compiles them, which can lag by several days. They don’t actually represent the activity over the past 24 hours. After closing bars, gyms and other establishments earlier this week, Gov Ducey said he expected case counts to keep increasing for several weeks before the impact comes about. But any increase in deaths is bound to alarm public health officials.

  Nearly 5,000 people are hospitalized in Arizona, though the rate by which this number has been increasing appears to be slowing, cases have been on the rise for weeks without a break, as the chart below (from the state’s website) shows.

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  * * *

  Update (1030ET): Just yesterday, we shared a factoid from WaPo claiming that almost zero US states are seeing COVID-19 cases decline; instead, states like NY, NJ & Connecticut have seen daily figures plateau, prompting some officials to worry as cases surge across the south and West, with just 4 states accounting for 50% of new cases.

  So, as expected, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio confirmed on Wednesday that NYC would delay the return of indoor dining, which was scheduled to happen July 6.

  “Honestly, even a week ago, honestly, I was hopeful we could. But the news we have gotten from around the country gets worse and worse all the time,” he said during the opening of the briefing.

  Meanwhile, Citigroup, a major NYC-headquartered bank, announced Wednesday that it would delay plans to bring workers back into the office. NYC is expected to enter Phase 3 of its reopening plan on July 6, though de Blasio couldn’t yet commit to a timeframe for reopening indoor dining.

  De Blasio said during his press briefing that the “postponement” was due to the unfortunate and avoidable surge in new cases around the US. He later clarified that while social distancing laws will be ‘enforced’, NYPD and the state police won’t be involved in that since NYC has “learned from its mistakes” (remember that video of the cops beating the crap out of that guy in the village?)

  Watch the rest of his statement below:

  Join us at City Hall. https://t.co/jev38NqcYy

  — Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) July 1, 2020

  Florida just reported its latest daily case numbers.

  • FLORIDA COVID-19 CASES RISE 4.3% VS. PREVIOUS 7-DAY AVG. 5.7%

  The upward momentum in Florida’s daily case counts has slowed over the past few days, though the state remains one of the biggest contributors of new cases. Gov. Ron DeSantis again said he wouldn’t impose a mandatory mask-wearing mandate state wide.

  DeSantis said reversing reopening wasn’t necessary since most of those being infected are younger people who bear a lower risk.

  “Most of the folks in those younger demographics, although we want them to be mindful of what’s going on, are just simply much, much less at risk than the folks who are in those older age groups,” DeSantis said.

  In Jupiter, Florida, a rehab center confirmed that 38 patients and 30 employees had tested positive for the virus, according to the Palm Beach Post. Elsewhere in Jupiter, the Courtyard Gardens of Jupiter assisted living home has transferred out 15 patients who have tested positive, according to state data.

  Blue checks are already whining about how de Blasio’s delay creates the need for a restaurant bailout.

  Kind of incredible that an entire restaurant can take the place of one single parking spot pic.twitter.com/yLIly7qOT4

  — Rebecca Fishbein (@bfishbfish) June 30, 2020

  And no doors present to hit cyclists in the bike lane, what a concept

  — Rebecca Fishbein (@bfishbfish) June 30, 2020

  Also I do know this is not an entire restaurant, was simply commenting on how much stupid space cars take up. Restaurants & staff are hurting & the gov’t insists on opening up instead of bailing them out, so please consider donating to a relief fund: https://t.co/2YvI8H92YD

  — Rebecca Fishbein (@bfishbfish) July 1, 2020

  Though others are taking things a step further and asking the important, if uncomfortable, questions.

  Without a bailout of the restaurant industry, I’m curious what the ethical don’t-go-to-bars-and-restaurants crowd thinks is the solution to support service industry workers who rely customers to make a living.

  — Max Tani (@maxwelltani) July 1, 2020

  It’s not really clear who should be doing the bailing out here (City Hall? the Trump Administration? Albany?) but we imagine these professional journalists haven’t thought that far ahead.

  * * *

  Update (0955ET): Cementing a pattern that we’ve seen repeatedly since the great race for a mass-produced COVID-19 vaccine began (with the US government selecting several trials to aid directly via its “operation warp speed” program), every time an extremely preliminary headline prompts a rally in stocks, another headline from a scientist expressing caution arrives a few minutes later to push stocks back down.

  • OXFORD SCIENTIST DEVELOPING POSSIBLE COVID-19 VACCINE SAYS DO NOT ASSUME VACCINE BY THE WINTER, BE PREPARED FOR THE WORST

  And just like that…stocks aren’t happy.

  * * *

  Update (0900ET): Despite claiming it would wait to publish study results in a journal, the latest results from one of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine trials been released, and stocks predictably spiked higher, following a report from Stat News, that bastion of ever-reliable trial updates.

  Futures are surging…

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  Like prior vaccine news-inspired leaks, we wouldn’t be surprised to see this rally fade as traders peruse the Stat News report, which was based on a non-peer-reviewed paper published to the website Medrx.

  An experimental Covid-19 vaccine being developed by the drug giant Pfizer and the biotech firm BioNTech spurred immune responses in healthy patients, but also caused fever and other side effects, especially at higher doses.

  The first clinical data on the vaccine were disclosed Wednesday in a paper released on MedRXiv, a preprint server, meaning it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a journal.

  The Pfizer study randomly assigned 45 patients to get one of three doses of the vaccine or placebo. Twelve receive a 10 microgram dose, 12 a 30 μg dose, 12 a 100 μg dose, and nine a placebo. The 100 μg dose caused fevers in half of patients; a second dose was not given at that level.

  Following a second injection three weeks later of the other doses, 8.3% of the participants in the 10 μg group and 75% of those in the 30 μg group developed fevers. More than 50% of the patients who received one of those doses reported some kind of adverse event, including fever and sleep disturbances. None of these side effects was deemed serious, meaning they did not result in hospitalization or disability and were not life-threatening.

  The company is hoping to get permission to start a larger phase 3 trial as early as August. Pfizer’s CEO told CNBC’s Meg Tirrell last week that he had the first batch of trial results in-hand.

  * * *

  Arizona became one of the first states to lift coronavirus-related restrictions back in May as the number of daily cases were just passing their peaks in the northeast and the other hard-hit states. But its decision earlier this week to reverse course and close bars, gyms etc. seemed to mark a turning point for the battleground state. Dr. Fauci’s warnings about 100k+ new cases per day has clearly rattled the GOP, leading to VP Mike Pence urging all Americans to wear masks while in public (if local regulations asked them to do so).

  The US reported more than 40k new cases yesterday (remember, cases are reported with a 24 hour delay) for the fifth day out of six, as we noted last night.

  Confirmed coronavirus infections in the US increased by 48,096 to 2.61 million on Tuesday, a rise of 1.9%, more than the 7-day daily average, per BBG.

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  According to the latest update from Kevin Systrom’s COVID-19 tracker, the state with the highest “R” rate (a measure of the rapidity of the virus’s spread) is Nevada, with Florida and Texas not far behind.

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  According to the Washington Post, the states with the worst outbreaks per capita roughly corresponded with “R Live”s calculations.

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  Source: WaPo

  A map of infections and outbreaks shows how badly the southern US has been hit.

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  Perhaps the biggest news on Wednesday morning is that the total number of COVID-19 cases globally has hit 10,498,090 while deaths have reached 511,686 deaths and more than 5.3 million have recovered.

  Though it appears the virus is growing less lethal as infections tilt toward young people.

  Perhaps the biggest news overnight is a report that Australia’s Victoria State will lock down 300,000 people in the suburbs of Melbourne in the 1-month lockdown that was reported earlier this week.

  In Japan, Tokyo confirmed 67 new cases on Wednesday, a new high since the emergency order in the prefecture was lifted. In Europe, Spain reopened its border with Portugal (and vice versa) and Greece has reopened its borders to some foreign travelers (while the EU’s list of travel guidelines stakes effect, which calls for member states to bar travelers from the US, but allow travelers from China). Germany’s coronavirus infection rate remained below the critical “1” threshold for the 7th straight day on Wednesday following a concerning spike last week that saw a cluster of new cases at a meat processing plant in the country’s most populous state drive that “R” rate to just shy of 3.

  The US, meanwhile, has reportedly bought up virtually all the stocks for the next three months of remdesivir, one of the two drugs that have shown some efficacy at treating the virus (though a much cheaper and more widely available steroid has proven effective at lowering mortality in very sick patients), the Guardian reports. The decision leaves none for the UK, Europe or most of the rest of the world.

  In Brazil, President Bolsonaro has imposed a travel ban on foreigners entering the country as the country’s death toll, the second-worst in the world after the US, is nearing 60,000. Brazil suffered 1,280 more deaths it reported yesterday, bringing the country’s confirmed death toll to 59,594, according to health ministry data.The total number of confirmed cases rose by 33,846 to reach 1,402,041, the worst outbreak in the world outside the US, though the US has once again started to expand the gap.

  

• India Monsoon Season Could See Gold Demand Soar
  India Monsoon Season Could See Gold Demand Soar
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 20:25

  Via SchiffGold.com,

  Gold just wrapped up a strong quarter, up 13%, and finishing at the highest price level in over eight years. On the year, gold is up about 16% and many mainstream analysts are starting to eyeball record gold prices in the coming months. But there has been some drag on the gold market, particularly sluggish consumer demand in the East – particularly in India.

  That could be changing.

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  India saw 18% more rainfall than average in June as the monsoon covered the entire country nearly two-weeks earlier than usual. This bodes well for India’s economy. As Reuters reported, “Monsoons deliver about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and are the lifeblood of its $2.9 trillion economy, spurring farm output and boosting rural spending on items ranging from gold to cars, motorcycles and refrigerators.”

  According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), soybean, pulses and cotton-growing regions in central and western parts of the country saw 31% more rainfall in June. Rice, coffee, rubber and tea growing regions in southern India received 8% higher rainfall. As of the last week in June, farmers had planted double the hectares planted last year when the monsoon season arrived late. According to Reuters, cotton sowing was up 165%, while rice planting rose by 35% during the period.

  An IMD official said India will likely see elevated rainfall in July as well.

  Gold has been at record highs in rupees squeezing demand for gold in the world’s second-largest market. Demand plunged to three-year lows in 2019. But a good rainy season and correspondingly strong agriculture output could jumpstart the Indian economy and revive demand for the yellow metal.

  Simply put, a good monsoon season is good news for Indian farmers, as well as for the broader Indian economy. And when rural Indians have money in their pockets, they buy gold.

  Collectively, Indian households own an estimated 25,000 tons of gold. The yellow metal is interwoven into the country’s marriage ceremonies and cultural rites. Indians also value gold as a store of wealth, especially in poor rural regions. Two-thirds of India’s gold demand comes from these areas, where the vast majority of people live outside the official tax system.

  Gold is not just a luxury in India. Even poor people buy gold in the Asian nation. According to an ICE 360 survey in 2018, one in every two households in India purchased gold within the last five years. Overall, 87% of households in the country own some amount of the yellow metal. Even households at the lowest income levels in India own some gold. According to the survey, more than 75% of families in the bottom 10% had managed to buy gold.

  Gold is the lifeblood of the Indian economy. Even now, it is serving as a valuable source of liquidity during the country’s credit crunch.

  A boost in Indian gold demand could be even further upward pressure on gold prices, even as central bank monetary policy drives the yellow metal higher.

  

• Federal Safety Regulators Are Probing Tesla's Battery Cooling System
  Federal Safety Regulators Are Probing Tesla’s Battery Cooling System
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 20:01

  Last week, Business Insider reported that when Tesla began selling its Model S back in 2012, the cars were equipped with a “poorly designed battery” that was susceptible to leaking, and that said leaks may have been the cause of short circuits and ensuing fires. More damning, however, and potentially exposing the company to criminal prosecution, is that Musk sold the cars despite allegedly knowing about the potentially deadly flaw. According to the report, the leaks became an “urgent concern” in spring 2012 due to two problems with the cooling system:

  • First, the aluminum Tesla chose to use for the end fitting of the cooling tube sourced from a Chinese company, was susceptible to cracks and pinholes, according to tests done by the third-party firm IMR Test Lab in the summer of 2012. Business Insider reviewed these test results.
  • And second, the design of the end fitting piece in the cooling system was imperfect, such that even after the part was brazed together, there were gaps between the cooling coil and its end fitting piece that connected it to the car, according to emails viewed by Business Insider. Sometimes, employees would have to force pieces together with a hammer to close gaps, according to internal Tesla documents viewed by Business Insider and a former Tesla employee.

  While traditionally federal regulators have ignored complaints about subpar Tesla quality control and design, this time the company, which earlier today surpassed Toyota as the world’s most valuable car maker with its stock price rising above $1,100 per share and equivalent to a market cap above $200 billion…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  … appears to finally be in the spotlight, because according to the LA Times, federal safety officials are probing allegations of defective cooling systems installed in early-model Tesla vehicles.

  Picking up on the Business Insider report which was based on a review of internal emails, the Times said it also reviewed copies of the emails “and other documentation that show the tubes were installed from 2012 until 2016, at which time Tesla cut off a supplier and began manufacturing the tubes in house.”

  The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, in a statement to The Times, said it is “well aware of the reports regarding this issue and will take action if appropriate based upon the facts and data.” The agency also reminded auto manufacturers that they are required “to notify the agency within five days of when the manufacturer becomes aware of a safety related defect and conduct a recall.” Tesla appears to never have issued such notification.

  The National Transportation Safety Board also issued a statement to The Times, saying it is “in the final stages of completing a Special Investigative Report based upon its investigations of several crashes involving electric vehicles and the resultant battery fires/thermal events.“

  The NTSB is an investigatory agency which, unlike the NHTSA, has no enforcement power. When it investigates electric vehicles fires, the board said, it considers “whether an existing mechanical issue or material failure contributed to the crash or the severity of the crash.”

  The Business Insider article said that Tesla knew the battery cooling system installed in Model S cars had a flawed design but sold the cars anyway, citing internal documents and “three people familiar with the matter.”

  As noted last week, sources had told Business Insider that the end fittings on the cooling tubes often didn’t quite match up with the connection to the car and had to be forced into position — sometimes, the internal emails show, with a hammer. A source with direct knowledge of the matter told The Times the same thing, asking not to be identified for fear of retaliation by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk.

  The Times then adds that although Tesla used the same China-based supplier for four years, “it’s not clear if and when the cooling tube problems were remedied before Tesla brought manufacturing in-house in 2016. Without information from the company or safety regulators, it’s impossible to know how many cars were affected.”

  It’s also unclear whether the issue affects the Model X, which used the same cooling system. Model X production began in 2015.

  The Tesla Model 3 uses a different, more efficient cooling system that does away with the bending coils in the Model S and Model X.

  Citing battery fire experts, the Times notes that the flammable glycol coolant in the Model S system could cause or exacerbate a battery fire if the fluid or its residue contacts a broken battery cell after a crash. In a phenomenon known as thermal runaway, a single battery on fire can spread to other battery cells in a vehicle, causing a larger fire.

  On the surface, this would explain why over the years there had been quite a few reports of Tesla cars catching fire after accidents, as well as several occasions when the car burst into flames spontaneously.

  Although it’s unclear how common electric car fires are, there were several media reports of Tesla fires in the months leading up to May 2019, when Tesla began limiting Model S charges to 80% of capacity at the company’s Supercharger stations. The closer a battery gets to full, the hotter it gets.

  Last November, NHTSA said it was probing potential defects in Tesla batteries. According to The Times, the agency declined to say whether the cooling tube leak allegations are part of that investigation or are being looked at separately.

  

• Police Respond To Active Shooting On Oakland Highway; At Least 4 Shot
  Police Respond To Active Shooting On Oakland Highway; At Least 4 Shot
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 19:49

  Officers with the Golden Gate division of the California Highway Patrol are responding to an active shooting on Interstate 580 Wednesday afternoon, with media reports saying at least four people appear to have been shot in the eastboudn lanes near 106th Avenue.

  The Oakland Police Department is assisting CHP with a shooting that occurred on E/B 580 Freeway in the area of 106 Ave. At this time 4 victims have been reported injured. Traffic Stopped, please use alternate routes.

  — Oakland Police Dept. (@oaklandpoliceca) July 1, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Police haven’t immediately elaborated on the condition of the victims or a possible motive.

  The freeway heading eastbound is currently shut down.

   

  

• The COVID Crisis Supercharged The War On Cash, Part 2
  The COVID Crisis Supercharged The War On Cash, Part 2
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 19:45

  Authored by Claudio Grass,

  Read Part 1 here…

  With cash being presented not just as a danger to society and to national security, but also as a direct health hazard due to the coronavirus, the push towards digital alternatives has been massively reinforced over the last few months…

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  The digital “toll”

  It doesn’t require too dark an imagination to realize the gravity of the concerns over the digital yuan. China is a true pioneer when it comes surveillance, censorship and political oppression and the digital age has given an incredibly efficient and effective arsenal to the state. Adding money to that toolkit was a move that was planned for many years and it is abundantly clear how useful a tool it can be for any totalitarian regime. The ability to track citizens’ transactions, access their financial data, control and freeze the account of anyone that presents a potential threat, it all opens the door to the ultimate oppression: total control over private resources, over people’s livelihoods and their capacity to cover their basic needs. 

  But we don’t even have to wait for the first signs of abuse of the system. As part of the government’s COVID relief spending packages, digital vouchers were loaded to Chinese citizens’ smartphones to encourage them to spend in their local stores. According to Dr. Shirley Yu, visiting fellow at the London School of Economics: “Digital coupons allow the Chinese government to trace the usage of these coupons,” and they “allow the government to know which sector is most helped, who uses it and where money is actually spent”. Of course, if the government has access to data that allows them check if their policies were well transmitted and if the money was spent as they intended, they can also use that data to check and trace any transactions for any other purpose. 

  Xu Yuan, a senior researcher with Peking University’s Digital Finance Research Cen­tre, highlighted the regulatory benefits of making all cash flow in society traceable.

  “In theory, following the launch of the digital yuan, there will be no transaction that regulatory authorities will not be able to see – cash flows will be completely traceable,” Xu said in an interview.

  Of course, this thought is scary enough on its own, but it becomes infinitely more terrifying when those that control the system have a very long track record of abuse and blatant disregard for basic rights and liberties. 

  “It could never happen here”

  That’s probably the most oft-repeated argument in our “civilized” western democracies, right before some terrible governmental abuse of power takes place, or before some new restrictive law or overarching regulation gets passed that limits individual citizens’ rights. A lot of people thought that the PATRIOT Act could never get passed, that banking secrecy would always be respected, and that there’s no way we’d ever see a global economic shutdown by decree. By comparison, a digital fiat currency is not really that far-fetched. In fact, about 20 central banks apart from the PBOC are already actively working on it. As for the possibility of digital currencies and payments systems being enforced, most central bank officials and politicians in the West seem to be quite confident.

  In a recent interview, Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank president Patrick Harker said a real-time digital payments option was “inevitable”, while the chief of the Bank for International Settlements also recognized that central banks will need to issue their own digital currencies soon. During the corona relief debates in the US, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, advocated for the stimulus payments to be distributed thought a digital dollar wallet. The so-called  ‘FedAccount’ program, with the Federal Reserve responsible for overseeing it, would offer free bank accounts to receive money and make payments.

  As for the EU, for many years there has been very strong support for the development of a digital single market. According to a recent European Parliament Briefing, “There is no pan-EU retail payment method to date (other than cash in euros), as there is no European card scheme. This is a source of concern for the European Central Bank (ECB)…. Thus, the ECB is calling for a European payment strategy to change this situation.” This is by all accounts the next step in the centralization and integration plan of the Union, and this couldn’t be a better time for it to materialize. Given the decline in public trust after the EU’s handling of the corona crisis, financial “integration” could be a valuable tool to tie the members tighter together and to force all citizens into a common digital economy, centrally planned and managed.

  A fork in the road

  So, if we accept that digital currencies are inevitable and arguably their emergence has been accelerated by the corona crisis, the real question is who controls them, who issues and distributes them, and who determines their value. We stand at a historic crossroads and the answer to these questions can determine the kind of future we’ll wake up to.

  It can be a very bleak one, if the power remains with governments and centralized institutions. In this scenario, money will retain all the flaws and vulnerabilities of today’s fiat currencies, only its digital nature will amplify them to an unimaginable extent. The privacy violations of today will become simply unstoppable, a mere fact of life, while disastrous monetary policies, like negative rates, so far only cushioned by the individuals’ ability to sidestep them through physical cash, will be forcibly and uniformly transmitted throughout the economy.

  On the other hand, the future could instead be bright, if we take the other path, towards decentralization, free competition and individual financial sovereignty. If we instead choose to break the state monopoly of money and allow private digital currencies to compete, a myriad of different solutions will emerge to serve a myriad of different needs. Savings can be accommodated though physical gold-backed digital currencies, real assets can be tokenized to facilitate and secure physical property sales, specialized cryptocurrencies can offer privacy and untraceable transactions.

  Far from a pipe dream, many solutions like these already exist, while others are in the making. There is therefore a choice about what kind of future we want and it is us, as individuals, that must make it.

  

• A Defiant Mark Zuckerberg Says "We're Not Gonna Change Our Policies" As Advertisers Will Be "Back Soon"
  A Defiant Mark Zuckerberg Says “We’re Not Gonna Change Our Policies” As Advertisers Will Be “Back Soon”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 19:27

  As the advertiser boycott of Facebook grows, CEO Mark Zuckerberg advised his employees that he intends to defy the crackdown, and expects companies that pulled advertisements off the social media platform to be back “soon enough.”

  As The Information reports, Zuckerberg gave his thoughts on the boycott, which now includes large brands like Starbucks and Coca-Cola, during a video town hall meeting last Friday, according to employees who attended. There, the Facebook CEO said he was reluctant to bow to threats of an advertising boycott, and said the boycott is more of a “reputational and a partner issue” than an economic one.

  During the town hall, Zuckerberg reportedly said that “we don’t set our policies because of revenue pressure. You know, we don’t technically set our policies because of any pressure that people apply to us, and, in fact, usually I tend to think that if someone goes out there and threatens you to do something, that actually kind of puts you in a box, where in some ways, it is even harder to do what they want because now, it looks like you’re capitulating and that sets up bad long-term incentives for others to do that as well. And you know, we’ve had a version of this discussion internally where a lot of our best partners now are basically the ones who are engaging with us and offering their feedback and what they have, and those are the folks who we’ll continue to have the most ongoing dialogue with.”

  “Bottom line is, we’re not gonna change our policies or approach on anything because of a threat to a small percent of our revenue, or to any percent of our revenue.”

  .@alexeheath got a transcript of Zuckerberg’s internal comments about the advertiser boycott. He said a lot, including the below.

  Full transcript here: https://t.co/ndNvmKDJZs pic.twitter.com/ajOrK5ePp3

  — Amir Efrati (@amir) July 1, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  One possible reason for Zuckerberg’s defiance is that as the WSJ pointed out, “even if the companies boycotting Facebook for July abandoned the service in the US forever,  their entire share of Facebook’s global revenue is represented by this tiny blue square.”

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  With that, the feud between advertisers and Facebook comes is at an impasse, with the world’s biggest social network unwilling to make material concession, which now means that either those advertisers who were quick to jump on the virtue signaling bandwagon will have to quietly fold, risking even greater reputational damage, or forego one of the most widely trafficked online media outlets, which would mean even more ad spending for Google.

  

• Central Banks Driving Gold
  Central Banks Driving Gold
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 19:05

  Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

  Gold as an asset class is confusing to most investors. Even sophisticated investors are accustomed to hearing gold ridiculed as a “shiny rock” and hearing serious gold analysts mocked as “gold bugs,” “gold nuts” or worse.

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  As a gold analyst, I grew used to this a long time ago. But, it’s still disconcerting when one realizes the extent to which gold is simply not taken seriously or is treated as a mere commodity no different than soy beans or wheat.

  The reasons for this disparaging approach to gold are not difficult to discern. Economic elites and academic economists control the central banks. The central banks control what we now consider “money” (dollars, euros, yen and other major currencies).

  Those who control the money supply can indirectly control economies and the destiny of nations simply by deciding when and how much to ease or tighten credit conditions, and when to favor (or disfavor) certain types of lending.

  When you ease credit conditions in a difficult environment, you help favored institutions (mainly banks) to survive. If you tighten credit conditions in a difficult environment, you can more or less guarantee that certain companies, banks or even nations will fail.

  This power is based on money and the money is controlled by central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve System. However, the money-based power depends on a monopoly on money creation.

  As long as investors and institutions are forced into a dollar-based system, then control of the dollar equates to control of those institutions. The minute another form of money competes with the dollar (or euro, etc.) as a store of value and medium of exchange, then the control of the power elites is broken.

  This is why the elites disparage and marginalize gold. It’s easy to show why gold is a better form of money, why it’s more reliable than central bank money for preserving wealth, and why it’s a threat to the money-monopoly that the elites depend upon to maintain power.

  Not only is gold a superior form of money, it’s also not under the control of any central bank or group of individuals. Yes, miners control new output, but annual output is only about 1.8% of all the above-ground gold in the world.

  The value of gold is determined not by new output, but by the above-ground supply, which is 190,000 metric tonnes. Most of that above-ground supply is either owned by central banks and finance ministries (about 34,000 metric tonnes) or is held privately either as jewelry (“wearable wealth”) or bullion (coins and bars).

  The floating supply available for day-to-day trading and investment is only a small fraction of the total supply. Gold is valuable and is a powerful form of money, but it’s not under the control of any single institution or group of institutions.

  Clearly gold is a threat to the central bank money monopoly. Gold cannot be made to disappear (it’s too valuable), and it would be almost impossible to confiscate (despite persistent rumors to that effect).

  If gold is a threat to central bank money and cannot be made to disappear, then it must be discredited. It becomes important for central bankers and academic economists to construct a narrative that’s easily absorbed by everyday investors that says gold is not money.

  The narrative goes like this:

  There’s not enough gold in the world to support trade and commerce.(That’s false: there’s always enough gold, it’s just a question of price. The same amount of gold supports a larger amount of transactions when the price is raised).

  Gold supply cannot expand fast enough to keep up with economic growth.(That’s false: It confuses the official supply with the total supply. Central banks can always expand the official supply by printing money and buying gold from private hands. That expands the money supply and supports economic expansion).

  Gold causes financial panics and crashes.(That’s false: There were panics and crashes during the gold standard and panics and crashes since the gold standard ended. Panics and crashes are not caused or cured by gold. They are caused by a loss of confidence in banks, paper money or the economy. There is no correlation between gold and financial panic).

  Gold caused and prolonged the Great Depression.(That’s false: Even Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke have written that the Great Depression was caused by the Fed. During the Great Depression, base money supply could be 250% of the market value of official gold. Actual money supply never exceeded 100% of the gold value. In other words, the Fed could have more than doubled the money supply even with a gold standard. It failed to do so. That’s a Fed failure not a gold failure).

  You get the point. There’s a clever narrative about why gold is not money. But, the narrative is false. It’s simply the case that everyday citizens believe what the economists say (usually a bad idea) or don’t know enough economic history to refute the economists (and how could you know the history if they stopped teaching it fifty years ago).

  The bottom line is that economists know that gold could be a perfectly usable form of money. The reason they don’t want it is because it dilutes their monopoly power over printed money and therefore reduces their political power over people and nations.

  To marginalize gold, they created a phony narrative about why gold doesn’t work as money. Most people were too easily impressed by the narrative or simply didn’t know enough to challenge it. Therefore the narrative wins even if it is false.

  If gold is viable as a form of money, what does gold’s recent price trading range combined with fundamental factors tell us about its investment prospects?

  Right now, my models are telling me that gold is poised to breakout of its recent narrow trading range.

  As always in technical analysis, the term “breakout” can mean sharply higher or sharply lower prices. Using fundamental analysis, a breakout to sharply higher prices is the expected outcome. This may be the last opportunity to buy gold below $2,000 per ounce.

  For the past three months, gold has been trading in a range between $1,685 per ounce and $1,790 per ounce (it’s trading at about $1,782 today). For most of those three months gold was trading in a fairly narrow band.

  When trading a volatile asset narrows to that extent, it’s a sign that the asset is ready for a material technical breakout. The question is will gold breakout to the upside or downside?

  To answer that question, we can turn to fundamental analysis. (Technical analysis is data rich and is useful for spotting patterns, but it has low predictive analytic power).

  One of the most important fundamental factors forcing gold higher is shown in Chart 1 below. This shows central bank purchases of gold bullion from 2017 to 2020 (each year is shown as a separate line measured in metric tonnes on the left scale).

  Chart 1 – Central Bank purchases of gold
  (in metric tonnes) 2017 – 2020

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  Chart 1 shows significant purchases of gold with 2019 running ahead of 2017 and 2018 at about 500 metric tonnes.

  The chart also shows over 150 metric tonnes of gold purchases through April 2020, which puts 2020 on track to show 450 metric tonnes purchased for the year if present trends hold.

  Of course, the actual result could be higher or lower. Cumulative central bank purchases from January 2017 to April 2020 are approximately 2,050 metric tonnes.

  In fact, central banks went from being net sellers to net buyers of gold in 2010, and that net buying position has persisted ever since. The largest buyers are Russia and China, but significant purchases have also been made by Iran, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Vietnam.

  Here’s the bottom line:

  Central banks have a monopoly on central bank money. Gold is the competitor to central bank money and most central banks would prefer to ignore gold. Yet, central banks in the aggregate are net buyers of gold.

  In effect, central banks are signaling through their actions that they are losing confidence in their own money and their money monopoly. They’re getting ready for the day when confidence in central bank money will collapse across the board. In that world, gold will be the only form of money anyone wants.

  Central banks are voting with their printing presses in favor of gold. What are you waiting for?

  Here’s a once in a lifetime opportunity to front run central banks and acquire your own gold at attractive prices before the curtain drops on paper money.

  

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• Should Governments Save Lives Or Jobs Amid Pandemic?
  Should Governments Save Lives Or Jobs Amid Pandemic?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 02:45

  It looked like the U.S. had reached the peak of its coronavirus infections on April 24 when it experienced 36,738 new daily cases, a figure that fell to 17,618 by May 11. Back then, it looked like the U.S. had put the worst of the pandemic behind it and President Trump consistently pressed for the economy to be reopened. While testifying in front of the Senate in mid May, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, cautioned against reopening too early, stating that the virus could spiral out of control resulting in increased suffering and death as well as a setback on the road to economic recovery.

  On June 26, the U.S. reported 45,300 new daily infections and at least 16 states have either paused of backtracked on reopening their economies. And as Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, the push to reopen led to a debate about whether it was better to to save lives and incur economic damage or press on with reopening without taking precautions to keep people safe.

  Most countries around the world adopted the former strategy with Italy, Spain, France and Germany among those waiting until the infection rate dropped substantially so that effective testing, contact tracing and isolation strategies could be implemented. All of those countries are now reaping the benefits of that approach, opening up their economies in time for the busy summer holiday season.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Edelman analyzed public attitudes to both approaches in a Spring Update to their Trust Barometer. Out of the 13,200 respondents polled across 11 countries, 67 percent agreed that the government should save as many lives as possible, even if it means the economy will sustain more damage and recover more slowly. 33 percent of respondents said it is becoming more important for the government to save jobs and restart the economy than to take every precaution possible to keep people safe from the virus.

  On a country-by-country basis, Japan had the highest proportion of people valuing lives over economic recovery at 76 percent. Elsewhere, 66 percent of Americans say that saving lives should be the government’s priority while 34 percent think the government should focus on saving jobs.

  In China, where the coronavirus intitially took hold, 56 percent of respondents said the authorities should focus on saving people while 44 percent want the economy reopened, regardless of the impact on citizens.

  

• Varoufakis Exposes The EU's COVID Class War
  Varoufakis Exposes The EU’s COVID Class War
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 02:00

  Authored by Yanis Varoufakis via Project Syndicate,

  The European Union’s proposed recovery fund to counter the pandemic’s economic fallout seems destined to leave the majority in every member state worse off. Finance will again be protected, if badly, while workers are left to foot the bill through new rounds of austerity.

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  The euro crisis that erupted a decade ago has long been portrayed as a clash between Europe’s frugal North and profligate South. In fact, at its heart was a fierce class war that left Europe, including its capitalists, much weakened relative to the United States and China. Worse still, the European Union’s response to the pandemic, including the EU recovery fund currently under deliberation, is bound to intensify this class war, and deal another blow to Europe’s socioeconomic model.

  If we have learned anything in recent decades, it is the pointlessness of focusing on any country’s economy in isolation. Once upon a time, when money moved between countries mostly to finance trade, and most consumption spending benefited domestic producers, the strengths and weaknesses of a national economy could be separately assessed. Not anymore. Today, the weaknesses of, say, China and Germany are intertwined with those of countries like the US and Greece.

  The unshackling of finance in the early 1980s, following the elimination of capital controls left over from the Bretton Woods system, enabled enormous trade imbalances to be funded by rivers of money created privately via financial engineering. As the US shifted from a trade surplus to a massive deficit, its hegemony grew. Its imports maintain global demand and are financed by the inflows of foreigners’ profits that pour into Wall Street.

  This strange recycling process is managed by the world’s de facto central bank, the US Federal Reserve. And maintaining such an impressive creation – a permanently imbalanced global system – necessitates the constant intensification of class war in deficit and surplus countries alike.

  Deficit countries are all alike in one important sense: whether powerful like the US, or weak like Greece, they are condemned to generate debt bubbles as their workers helplessly watch industrial areas morph into rustbelts. Once the bubbles burst, workers in the Midwest or the Peloponnese face debt bondage and plummeting living standards.

  Although surplus countries, too, are characterized by class warfare against workers, they differ significantly from one another. Consider China and Germany. Both feature large trade surpluses with the US and the rest of Europe. Both repress their workers’ income and wealth. The main difference between them is that China maintains huge levels of investment through a domestic credit bubble, while Germany’s corporations invest much less and rely on credit bubbles in the rest of the eurozone.

  The euro crisis was never a clash between the Germans and the Greeks (shorthand for the fabled North-South clash). Instead, it stemmed from an intensification of class war within Germany and within Greece at the hands of an oligarchy-without-frontiers living off financial flows.

  For example, when the Greek state went bankrupt in 2010, the austerity imposed on most of the Greek population did wonders to restrict investment in Greece. But it did the same in Germany, indirectly repressing German wages at a time when the European Central Bank’s money-printing was sending share prices (and German directors’ bonuses) through the roof.

  Class warfare is arguably more brutal in China and the US than it is in Europe. But Europe’s lack of a political union ensures that its class war verges on being pointless, even from the capitalists’ perspective.

  Evidence that German capitalists squandered the wealth extracted from the EU’s working classes is not hard to find. The euro crisis caused a massive 7% devaluation of the surpluses that the German private sector had accumulated from 1999 onwards, because capital owners had no alternative but to lend these trillions to foreigners whose subsequent distress led to large losses.

  This is not only a German problem. It is a condition afflicting the EU’s other surplus countries as well. The German newspaper Handelsblatt recently revealed a notable reversal. Whereas in 2007, EU corporations earned around €100 billion ($113 billion) more than their US counterparts, in 2019 the situation was inverted.

  Moreover, this is an accelerating trend. In 2019, corporate earnings rose 50% faster in the US than in Europe. And US corporate earnings are expected to suffer less from the pandemic-induced recession, falling 20% in 2020, compared to 33% in Europe.

  The gist of Europe’s conundrum is that, while it is a surplus economy, its fragmentation ensures that the income losses of German and Greek workers do not even become sustainable profits for Europe’s capitalists. In short, behind the narrative of northern frugality lurks the specter of wasted exploitation.

  Reports that COVID-19 caused the EU to raise its game are grossly exaggerated. The quiet death of European debt mutualization guarantees that the gigantic increase in national budget deficits will be followed by equally sizeable austerity in every country. In other words, the class war that has already eroded most people’s incomes will intensify. “But what about the proposed €750 billion recovery fund?” one might ask. “Is the agreement to issue common debt not a breakthrough?”

  Yes and no. Common debt instruments are a necessary but insufficient condition for ameliorating the intensified class war. To play a progressive role, common debt must fund the weaker households and firms across the common economic area: in Germany as well as in Greece. And it must do so automatically, without reliance on the kindness of the local oligarchs. It must operate like an automated recycling mechanism that shifts surpluses to those in deficit within every town, region, and state. In the US, for example, food stamps and social security payments support the weak in California and in Missouri, while shifting net resources from California to Missouri – and all without any involvement by state governors or local bureaucrats.

  By contrast, the EU recovery fund’s fixed allocation to member states will turn them against one another, as the fixed sum to be given to, say, Italy or Greece is portrayed as a tax on Germany’s working class. Moreover, the idea is to transfer the funds to national governments, effectively entrusting the local oligarchy with the task of distributing them.

  Strengthening the solidarity of Europe’s oligarchs is not a good strategy for empowering Europe’s majority. Quite the contrary. Any “recovery” based on such a formula will short-change almost all Europeans and push the majority into deeper despair.

  

• The Purge: The Natural Progression Of "Woke" Censorship Is Tyranny
  The Purge: The Natural Progression Of “Woke” Censorship Is Tyranny
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 00:05

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

  As I have noted in the past, in order to be a conservative one has to stick to certain principles. For example, you have to stand against big government and state intrusions into individual lives, you have to support our constitutional framework and defend civil liberties, and you also have to uphold the rights of private property. Websites are indeed private property, as much as a person’s home is private property. There is no such thing as free speech rights in another person’s home, and there is no such thing as free speech rights on a website.

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  That said, there are some exceptions. When a corporation or a collective of corporations holds a monopoly over a certain form of communication, then legal questions come into play when they try to censor the viewpoints of an entire group of people. Corporations exist due to government sponsored charters; they are creations of government and enjoy certain legal protections through government, such as limited liability and corporate personhood. Corporations are a product of socialism, not free market capitalism; and when they become monopolies, they are subject to regulation and possible demarcation.

  Many corporations have also received extensive government bailouts (taxpayer money) and corporate welfare. Google and Facebook, for example rake in billions in state and federal subsidies over the course of a few years.   Google doesn’t even pay for the massive bandwidth it uses.  So, it is not outlandish to suggest that if a company receives the full protection of government from the legal realm to the financial realm then they fall under the category of a public service. If they are allowed to continue to monopolize communication while also being coddled by the government as “too big to fail”, then they become a public menace instead.

  This is not to say that I support the idea of nationalization. On the contrary, the disasters of socialism cannot be cured with even more socialism. However, monopolies are a poison to free markets and to free speech and must be deconstructed or abolished.

  Beyond corporate monopolies, there is also the danger of ideological monopolies. Consider this – The vast majority of silicon valley companies that control the lion’s share of social media platforms are run by extreme political leftists and globalists that are openly hostile to conservative and moderate values.

  Case in point: Three of the largest platforms on the internet – Reddit, Twitch, and YouTube just acted simultaneously in a single day to shut down tens of thousands of forums, streamers and video channels, the majority of which espouse conservative arguments which the media refers to as “hate speech”.

  To be sure, at least a few of the outlets shut down probably argue from a position of race superiority.  However, I keep seeing the mainstream media making accusations that all the people being silenced right now deserve it due to “racism” and “calls for violence”, and I have yet to see them offer a single piece of evidence supporting any of these claims.

  A recent article from the hyper-leftist Salon is a perfect example of the hypocrisy and madness of the social justice left in action.

  It’s titled ‘Twitch, YouTube And Reddit Punished Trump And Other Racists – And That’s A Great Thing For Freedom’. Here are a few excerpts with my commentary:

  Salon: “Freedom is impossible for everyone when viewpoints prevail that dehumanize anyone. And it appears that several big social media platforms agree, judging from recent bans or suspensions of racist accounts across YouTube, Twitch, and Reddit.”

  My Response

  Freedom cannot be taken away by another person’s viewpoint. Every individual has complete control over whether or not they “feel” marginalized and no amount of disapproval can silence a person unless they allow it to. If you are weak minded or weak willed, then grow a backbone instead of expecting the rest of the world to stay quiet and keep you comfortable.

  Remember when the political left was the bastion of the free speech debate against the censorship of the religious right? Well, now the leftists have a religion (or cult) of their own and they have changed their minds on the importance of open dialogue.

  Salon: “For those who are dehumanized — whether by racism, sexism, classism, ableism, anti-LGBTQ sentiment or any other prejudices — their voices are diminished or outright silenced, and in the process they lose their ability to fully participate in our democracy. We all need to live in a society where hate is discouraged, discredited and whenever possible scrubbed out completely from our discourse. This doesn’t mean we should label all ideas as hateful simply because we disagree with them; to do that runs afoul of President Dwight Eisenhower’s famous statement, “In a democracy debate is the breath of life”. When actual hate enters the dialogue, however, it acts as a toxic smoke in the air of debate, suffocating some voices and weakening the rest.”

  My Response

  Where do I begin with this steaming pile of woke nonsense? First, it’s impossible to be “dehumanized” by another person’s opinion of you. If they are wrong, or an idiot, then their opinion carries no weight and should be ignored. Your value is not determined by their opinion. No one can be “silenced” by another person’s viewpoint unless they allow themselves to be silenced. If they are right about you and are telling you something you don’t want to hear, then that is your problem, not theirs. No one in this world is entitled to protection from other people’s opinions. Period.

  It should not surprise anyone though that leftists are actively attempting to silence all dissent while accusing conservatives of stifling free speech. This is what they do; they play the victim while they seek to victimize. They have no principles. They do not care about being right, they only care about “winning”.

  Under the 1st Amendment, ALL speech is protected, including what leftists arbitrarily label “hate speech”. Unless you are knowingly defaming a specific person or threatening specific violence against a specific person, your rights are protected. Interpreting broad speech as a “threat” because of how it might make certain people feel simply will not hold up in a court of law. Or at least, it should not hold up…

  Political leftists have declared themselves the arbiters of what constitutes “hate speech”, the problem is they see EVERYTHING that is conservative as racist, sexist, misogynistic, etc. No human being or group of human beings is pure enough or objective enough to sit in judgment of what encompasses fair or acceptable speech. Therefore, all speech must be allowed in order to avoid tyranny.

  If an idea is unjust, then by all means, the political left has every right to counter it with their own ideas and arguments. “Scrubbing” all opposing ideas from the public discourse is unacceptable, and this is exactly what the social justice movement is attempting to do. If you want to erase these ideas from your own home, or your personal website, then you are perfectly within your rights to do so, but you DO NOT have the right to assert a monopoly on speech and the political narrative.

  Generally, when a group of zealots is trying to erase opposing ideals from the discussion, it usually means their own ideals don’t hold up to scrutiny. If your ideology is so pure and correct in its form, there should be no need to trick the masses into accepting it by scrubbing the internet.

  Finally, America was not founded as a democracy, we are a republic, and with good reason. A democracy is tyranny by the majority; a collectivist hell where power is centralized into the hands of whoever can con 51% of the population to their side. Marxists and communists love the idea of “democracy” and speak about it often because they think they are keenly equipped to manipulate the masses and form a majority. But, in a republic, individual rights are protected REGARDLESS of what the majority happens to believe at any given time, and this includes the right to free speech.

  In the same breath, Solon pretends to value free discussion, then calls for the destruction of free speech and opposing ideas in the name of protecting people’s thin-skinned sensitivities. In other words, free speech is good, unless it’s a viewpoint they don’t like, then it becomes hate speech and must be suppressed.

  Solon: “Reddit referred Salon to a statement explaining,”We committed to closing the gap between our values and our policies to explicitly address hate” and that “ultimately, it’s our responsibility to support our communities by taking stronger action against those who try to weaponize parts of Reddit against other people.””

  My Response

  In other words, they don’t like conservatives using their platforms against them, and since the political left is unable to present any valid arguments to defend their beliefs and they are losing the culture war, they are going for broke and seeking to erase all conservatives from their platforms instead. The “hate speech” excuse is merely a false rationale.  Social justice warriors stand on top of a dung heap and pretend it’s the moral high ground.

  Solon: “No one who understands Constitutional law can argue that these corporate decisions violate the First Amendment which only protects speech from government repression. Professor Rick Hasen at the University of California, Irvine Law School told Salon by email that “private companies running websites are not subject to being sued for violating the First Amendment. The companies are private actors who can include whatever content they want unless there is a law preventing them from doing so.”

  My Response

  Again, this is not entirely true. Corporations are constructs of government and receive special privileges from government. If corporations form a monopoly over a certain form of communication and they attempt to censor all opposing views from that platform then they can be broken up by government to prevent destruction of the marketplace. Also, government can rescind the limited liability and corporate personhood of these companies as punishment for violating the public trust. And finally, any company that relies on taxpayer dollars or special tax break incentives to survive can and should have those dollars taken away when attempting to assert a monopoly.

  Yes, there are alternative platforms for people to go to, but what is to stop leftist/globalist monopolies from buying up every other social media and standard media platform (as they have been doing for the past decade)? What is to stop leftist/globalist interests from using the “hate speech” argument to put pressure on ALL other web platforms including service and domain providers to cancel conservatives?

  Finally, just because something is technically legal does not necessarily make it right. Corporations exploit government protection, yet claim they are not subject to government regulation? The left hates corporate America, yet they happily defend corporations when they are censoring conservatives? This is insane.

  The Salon author then goes on a blathering diatribe about how he was once a victim of racism (all SJWs measure personal value according to how much more victimized someone is compared to others). His claims are irrelevant to the argument at hand, then he continues…

  Salon: “Trump threatening to use the government power to retaliate against those companies, on the other hand, is a threat to both the letter and the spirit of the First Amendment. He and his supporters are not being stopped from disseminating their views on other platforms…”

  My Response

  Here is the only area where I partially agree with Salon. All of my readers know I do not put any faith in Donald Trump to do the right thing, mostly because of the elitists he surrounds himself with in his cabinet. When it comes down to it, Trump will act in THIER best interests, not in the public’s best interests. Giving him (or the FCC) the power to dictate speech rules on the internet is a bad idea. Also, for those that think the election process still matters, what if we gift such powers to the government today and then the political left enters the White House tomorrow? Yikes! Then we’ll have no room to complain as they will most certainly flip-flop and use government power to silence their opposition.

  Of course, if the roles were reversed and corporations were deplatforming thousands of social justice forums and videos, the leftists would be screaming bloody murder about “corporate censorship” and “discrimination”. For now, in their minds, racial discrimination = bad. Politicial discrimination = good.

  The monopoly issue still stands, though, and an ideological monopoly coupled with a unified corporate monopoly is a monstrosity that cannot be tolerated.  Government can and should break up such monopolies without going down the rabbit hole of nationalization.

  Yes, we can go to small startup platforms and leave Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, YouTube, etc. behind. I have been saying for years that conservatives with the capital should start their own alternative social media. In fact, that is exactly what is fianlly happening. There has been a mass exodus of users from mainstream websites lately. I say, let the SJWs have their echo chambers and maybe these companies will collapse. Get Woke Go Broke still applies. But, government can no longer protect these corporations, either.  With the government raining down bailout cash and corporate welfare on media companies, voting with your feet does not have the same affect or send the same message.

  The future of this situation is bleak. I have no doubt that leftists and globalists will attempt to purge ALL conservative discussion from the internet, to the point of attempting to shut down private conservative websites through service providers.  The final outcome of the purge is predictable:  Civil war; an issue I will be discussing in my next article.

  Leftists accuse conservatives of hate, but social justice adherents seem to hate almost everything. I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed a group of people more obsessed with visiting misery on others, and they will never be satisfied or satiated. That which is normal speech today will be labeled as hate speech tomorrow.  The cult must continue to justify its own existence.  

  I for one am not going to live my life walking on eggshells around a clique of narcissistic sociopaths. Cancel culture is mob rule, and mob rule is at its core the true evil here; far more evil than any mere words spoken by any “white supremacist” on any forum or video ever.

  *  *  *

  If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  

• Cocoa Futures Hit One Year Low As Pandemic Wrecks Global Consumption  
  Cocoa Futures Hit One Year Low As Pandemic Wrecks Global Consumption  
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 23:45

  ICE Europe cocoa futures plunged to one year low on Monday following demand concerns and oversupplied conditions amid mounting global economic headwinds that suggest no V-shaped recovery in the back half of 2020.

  September London cocoa futures ended the session down 6 pounds to 1,682 pounds per tonne, now in bear market territory, plunging -20% since mid-February. In 15 quarters, from 3Q16, cocoa futures have tumbled 34%. 

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  Reuters explains the bearish fundamental backdrop for the cocoa market will likely pressure prices ahead: 

  “Above-average rains last week in most of top producer Ivory Coast’s cocoa regions bode well for the start of the next main crop in October but could hurt the current mid-crop, as indicated by falling port arrivals.

  “An expected rise in production in the upcoming 2020/21 season combined with increased signs demand is flailing amid the economic downturn is weighing on cocoa.” – Reuters 

  Cocoa futures are a proxy of economic activity among consumers. Chocolate companies suffered steep declines in sales as lockdowns closed restaurants, resorts, movie theaters, concerts, and other forms of entertainment. Consumers across the world have been crushed by lockdowns, unlikely to spend money at 2019 levels. 

  Days ago, we outlined similar bearish fundamentals playing out in coffee markets, sending spot prices to 15-year lows. 

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  What this all suggests is that consumption is lagging – hopes for a V-shaped recovery are set to fade as economic reality should rear its ugly head this summer. 

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  Falling spot cocoa prices could suggest the next move for global stocks is down. 

  

• Russiagate's Last Gasp
  Russiagate’s Last Gasp
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 23:25

  Authored by Ray McGovern via ConsortiumNews.com,

  On Friday The New York Times featured a report based on anonymous intelligence officials that the Russians were paying bounties to have U.S. troops killed in Afghanistan with President Donald Trump refusing to do anything about it.  The flurry of Establishment media reporting that ensued provides further proof, if such were needed, that the erstwhile “paper of record” has earned a new moniker — Gray Lady of easy virtue.

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  Over the weekend, the Times’ dubious allegations grabbed headlines across all media that are likely to remain indelible in the minds of credulous Americans — which seems to have been the main objective. To keep the pot boiling this morning, The New York Times’ David Leonhardt’s daily web piece, “The Morning” calls prominent attention to a banal article by a Heather Cox Richardson, described as a historian at Boston College, adding specific charges to the general indictment of Trump by showing “how the Trump administration has continued to treat Russia favorably.” The following is from Richardson’s newsletter on Friday:

  — “On April 1 a Russian plane brought ventilators and other medical supplies to the United States … a propaganda coup for Russia;

  — “On April 25 Trump raised eyebrows by issuing a joint statement with Russian President Vladimir Putin commemorating the 75th anniversary of the historic meeting between American and Soviet troops on the bridge of the Elbe River in Germany that signaled the final defeat of the Nazis;

  — “On May 3, Trump called Putin and talked for an hour and a half, a discussion Trump called ‘very positive’;

  — “On May 21, the U.S. sent a humanitarian aid package worth $5.6 million to Moscow to help fight coronavirus there.  The shipment included 50 ventilators, with another 150 promised for the next week; …

  — “On June 15, news broke that Trump has ordered the removal of 9,500 troops from Germany, where they support NATO against Russian aggression. …”

  Historian Richardson added:

  “All of these friendly overtures to Russia were alarming enough when all we knew was that Russia attacked the 2016 U.S. election and is doing so again in 2020.  But it is far worse that those overtures took place when the administration knew that Russia had actively targeted American soldiers. … this bad news apparently prompted worried intelligence officials to give up their hope that the administration would respond to the crisis, and instead to leak the story to two major newspapers.”

  Hear the siren? Children, get under your desks!

  The Tall Tale About Russia Paying for Dead U.S. Troops

  Times print edition readers had to wait until this morning to learn of Trump’s statement last night that he was not briefed on the cockamamie tale about bounties for killing, since it was, well, cockamamie.

  Late last night the president tweeted: “Intel just reported to me that they did not find this info credible, and therefore did not report it to me or the VP. …”

  Intel just reported to me that they did not find this info credible, and therefore did not report it to me or @VP. Possibly another fabricated Russia Hoax, maybe by the Fake News @nytimesbooks, wanting to make Republicans look bad!!! https://t.co/cowOmP7T1S

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 29, 2020

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  For those of us distrustful of the Times — with good reason — on such neuralgic issues, the bounty story had already fallen of its own weight. As Scott Ritter pointed out yesterday:

  “Perhaps the biggest clue concerning the fragility of the New York Times’ report is contained in the one sentence it provides about sourcing — “The intelligence assessment is said to be based at least in part on interrogations of captured Afghan militants and criminals.” That sentence contains almost everything one needs to know about the intelligence in question, including the fact that the source of the information is most likely the Afghan government as reported through CIA channels. …”

  And who can forget how “successful” interrogators can be in getting desired answers.

  Russia & Taliban React

  The Kremlin called the Times reporting “nonsense … an unsophisticated plant,” and from Russia’s perspective the allegations make little sense; Moscow will see them for what they are — attempts to show that Trump is too “accommodating” to Russia.

  A Taliban spokesman called the story “baseless,” adding with apparent pride that “we” have done “target killings” for years “on our own resources.” 

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  Attendees at the Taliban-U.S. peace signing ceremony in Doha, Qatar, on Feb. 29, 2020. (State Department/Ron Przysucha)

  Russia is no friend of the Taliban.  At the same time, it has been clear for several years that the U.S. would have to pull its troops out of Afghanistan.  Think back five decades and recall how circumspect the Soviets were in Vietnam.  Giving rhetorical support to a fraternal Communist nation was de rigueur and some surface-to-air missiles gave some substance to that support.

  But Moscow recognized from the start that Washington was embarked on a fool’s errand in Vietnam. There would be no percentage in getting directly involved.  And so, the Soviets sat back and watched smugly as the Vietnamese Communists drove U.S. forces out on their “own resources.” As was the case with the Viet Cong, the Taliban needs no bounty inducements from abroad.

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  President Lyndon Johnson announces “retaliatory” strike against North Vietnam in response to the supposed attacks on U.S. warships in the Gulf of Tonkin on Aug. 4, 1964. (LBJ Library)

  Besides, the Russians knew painfully well — from their own bitter experience in Afghanistan, what the outcome of the most recent fool’s errand would be for the U.S.  What point would they see in doing what The New York Times and other Establishment media are breathlessly accusing them of?

  CIA Disinformation; Casey at Bat

  Former CIA Director William Casey said:  “We’ll know when our disinformation program is complete, when everything the American public believes is false.”

  Casey made that remark at the first cabinet meeting in the White House under President Ronald Reagan in early 1981, according to Barbara Honegger, who was assistant to the chief domestic policy adviser.  Honegger was there, took notes, and told then Senior White House correspondent Sarah McClendon, who in turn made it public.

  If Casey’s spirit is somehow observing the success of the disinformation program called Russiagate, one can imagine how proud he must be.  But sustained propaganda success can be a serious challenge.  The Russiagate canard has lasted three and a half years.  This last gasp effort, spearheaded by the Times, to breathe more life into it is likely to last little more than a weekend — the redoubled efforts of Casey-dictum followers notwithstanding.

  Russiagate itself has been unraveling, although one would hardly know it from the Establishment media.  No collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.  Even the sacrosanct tenet that the Russians hacked the DNC emails published by WikiLeaks has been disproven, with the head of the DNC-hired cyber security firm CrowdStrike admitting that there is no evidence that the DNC emails were hacked — by Russia or anyone else.

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  U.S. Attorney John Durham. (Wikipedia)

  How long will it take the Times to catch up with the CrowdStrike story, available since May 7?

  The media is left with one sacred cow: the misnomered “Intelligence Community” Assessment of Jan. 6, 2017, claiming that President Putin himself ordered the hacking of the DNC. That “assessment” done by “hand-picked analysts” from only CIA, FBI and NSA (not all 17 intelligence agencies of the “intelligence community”) reportedly is being given close scrutiny by U. S. Attorney John Durham, appointed by the attorney general to investigate Russiagate’s origins.

  If Durham finds it fraudulent (not a difficult task), the heads of senior intelligence and law enforcement officials may roll.  That would also mean a still deeper dent in the credibility of Establishment media that are only too eager to drink the Kool Aid and to leave plenty to drink for the rest of us.

  Do not expect the media to cease and desist, simply because Trump had a good squelch for them last night — namely, the “intelligence” on the “bounties” was not deemed good enough to present to the president. 

  (As a preparer and briefer of The President’s Daily Brief  to Presidents Reagan and HW Bush, I can attest to the fact that — based on what has been revealed so far — the Russian bounty story falls far short of the PDB threshold.)

  Rejecting Intelligence Assessments

  Nevertheless, the corporate media is likely to play up the Trump administration’s rejection of what the media is calling the “intelligence assessment” about Russia offering — as Rachel Maddow indecorously put it on Friday — “bounty for the scalps of American soldiers in Afghanistan.”

  I am not a regular Maddow-watcher, but to me she seemed unhinged — actually, well over the top.

  The media asks, “Why does Trump continue to disrespect the assessments of the intelligence community?”  There he goes again — not believing our “intelligence community; siding, rather, with Putin.”

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  In other words, we can expect no let up from the media and the national security miscreant leakers who have served as their life’s blood.  As for the anchors and pundits, their level of sophistication was reflected yesterday in the sage surmise of Face the Nation’s Chuck Todd, who Aaron Mate reminds us, is a “grown adult and professional media person.”  Todd asked guest John Bolton: “Do you think that the president is afraid to make Putin mad because maybe Putin did help him win the election, and he doesn’t want to make him mad for 2020?”

  “This is as bad as it gets,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi yesterday, adding the aphorism she memorized several months ago: “All roads lead to Putin.”  The unconscionably deceitful performance of Establishment media is as bad as it gets, though that, of course, was not what Pelosi meant.  She apparently lifted a line right out of the Times about how Trump is too “accommodating” toward Russia.

  One can read this most recent flurry of Russia, Russia, Russia as a reflection of the need to pre-empt the findings likely to issue from Durham and Attorney General William Barr in the coming months — on the theory that the best defense is a pre-emptive offense. 

  Meanwhile, we can expect the corporate media to continue to disgrace itself.

  Vile

  Caitlin Johnstone, typically, pulls no punches regarding the Russian bounty travesty: 

  “All parties involved in spreading this malignant psyop are absolutely vile, but a special disdain should be reserved for the media class who have been entrusted by the public with the essential task of creating an informed populace and holding power to account. How much of an unprincipled whore do you have to be to call yourself a journalist and uncritically parrot the completely unsubstantiated assertions of spooks while protecting their anonymity? How much work did these empire fluffers put into killing off every last shred of their dignity? It boggles the mind.

  It really is funny how the most influential news outlets in the Western world will uncritically parrot whatever they’re told to say by the most powerful and depraved intelligence agencies on the planet, and then turn around and tell you without a hint of self-awareness that Russia and China are bad because they have state media.

  Sometimes all you can do is laugh.”

  

• US Interest In Coronavirus Waning
  US Interest In Coronavirus Waning
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 23:05

  COVID-19 cases are reaching record levels yet again in the U.S., despite most developed countries around the world successfully flattening their curve and reopening without another major wave of infections. One of the big problems in the U.S., Statista’s Willem Roper suggests based on recent data, may be a growing indifference amid a weariness of misinformation and a news cycle dominated by the virus.

  In a new survey from the Pew Research Center, nearly 40 percent of U.S. adults in June say the outbreak has been exaggerated – an almost 10 percent increase since April. In terms of political party, respondents who identified as Republican or leaning Republican had the largest increase between April and June, going from 47 percent to 63 percent believing the outbreak has been exaggerated.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  In March and April, Pew recorded that a majority of Americans were closely following updated news on COVID-19 and how it was spreading locally, nationally and globally. Since then, new surveys show Americans’ interest has quickly dissipated, going from 46 percent in May to just 39 percent of U.S. adults saying they’re closely following COVID-19 news in June.

  Other data from this Pew survey show how misinformation is coursing through the country, with nearly 40 percent of U.S. adults saying they’re finding it hard to identify truth from fiction regarding COVID-19. A growing percentage of Americans are also paying more attention to the conspiracy that the coronavirus outbreak was planned by “powerful people.”

  

• Bill Clinton's Serbian War Atrocities Exposed In New Indictment
  Bill Clinton’s Serbian War Atrocities Exposed In New Indictment
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 22:45

  Authored by Jim Bovard via The Libertarian Institute,

  President Bill Clinton’s favorite freedom fighter just got indicted for mass murder, torture, kidnapping, and other crimes against humanity. In 1999, the Clinton administration launched a 78-day bombing campaign that killed up to 1500 civilians in Serbia and Kosovo in what the American media proudly portrayed as a crusade against ethnic bias. That war, like most of the pretenses of U.S. foreign policy, was always a sham.

  Kosovo President Hashim Thaci was charged with ten counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity by an international tribunal in The Hague in the Netherlands. It charged Thaci and nine other men with “war crimes, including murder, enforced disappearance of persons, persecution, and torture.” Thaci and the other charged suspects were accused of being “criminally responsible for nearly 100 murders” and the indictment involved “hundreds of known victims of Kosovo Albanian, Serb, Roma, and other ethnicities and include political opponents.”

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  Hashim Thaci’s tawdry career illustrates how anti-terrorism is a flag of convenience for Washington policymakers. Prior to becoming Kosovo’s president, Thaci was the head of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), fighting to force Serbs out of Kosovo. In 1999, the Clinton administration designated the KLA as “freedom fighters” despite their horrific past and gave them massive aid. The previous year, the State Department condemned “terrorist action by the so-called Kosovo Liberation Army.” The KLA was heavily involved in drug trafficking and had close to ties to Osama bin Laden.

  But arming the KLA and bombing Serbia helped Clinton portray himself as a crusader against injustice and shift public attention after his impeachment trial. Clinton was aided by many shameless members of Congress anxious to sanctify U.S. killing. Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CN) whooped that the United States and the KLA “stand for the same values and principles. Fighting for the KLA is fighting for human rights and American values.” And since Clinton administration officials publicly compared Serb leader Slobodan Milošević to Hitler, every decent person was obliged to applaud the bombing campaign.

  Both the Serbs and ethnic Albanians committed atrocities in the bitter strife in Kosovo. But to sanctify its bombing campaign, the Clinton administration waved a magic wand and made the KLA’s atrocities disappear. British professor Philip Hammond noted that the 78-day bombing campaign “was not a purely military operation: NATO also destroyed what it called ‘dual-use’ targets, such as factories, city bridges, and even the main television building in downtown Belgrade, in an attempt to terrorize the country into surrender.”

  NATO repeatedly dropped cluster bombs into marketplaces, hospitals, and other civilian areas. Cluster bombs are anti-personnel devices designed to be scattered across enemy troop formations. NATO dropped more than 1,300 cluster bombs on Serbia and Kosovo and each bomb contained 208 separate bomblets that floated to earth by parachute. Bomb experts estimated that more than 10,000 unexploded bomblets were scattered around the landscape when the bombing ended and maimed children long after the ceasefire.

  #ICYMI | Addressing the nation on Monday from Pristina, Kosovo President Hashim Thaci declared that if the war crimes indictment against him is confirmed, he will “immediately” resign his office.
  https://t.co/4FuilSZKbu

  — Balkan Insight (@BalkanInsight) June 30, 2020

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  In the final days of the bombing campaign, the Washington Post reported that “some presidential aides and friends are describing Kosovo in Churchillian tones, as Clinton’s ‘finest hour.’” The Post also reported that according to one Clinton friend “what Clinton believes were the unambiguously moral motives for NATO’s intervention represented a chance to soothe regrets harbored in Clinton’s own conscience… The friend said Clinton has at times lamented that the generation before him was able to serve in a war with a plainly noble purpose, and he feels ‘almost cheated’ that ‘when it was his turn he didn’t have the chance to be part of a moral cause.’” By Clinton’s standard, slaughtering Serbs was “close enough for government work” to a “moral cause.”

  Shortly after the end of the 1999 bombing campaign, Clinton enunciated what his aides labeled the Clinton doctrine: “Whether within or beyond the borders of a country, if the world community has the power to stop it, we ought to stop genocide and ethnic cleansing.” In reality, the Clinton doctrine was that presidents are entitled to commence bombing foreign lands based on any brazen lie that the American media will regurgitate. In reality, the lesson from bombing Serbia is that American politicians merely need to publicly recite the word “genocide” to get a license to kill.

  After the bombing ended, Clinton assured the Serbian people that the United States and NATO agreed to be peacekeepers only “with the understanding that they would protect Serbs as well as ethnic Albanians and that they would leave when peace took hold.” In the subsequent months and years, American and NATO forces stood by as the KLA resumed its ethnic cleansing, slaughtering Serb civilians, bombing Serbian churches and oppressing any non-Muslims. Almost a quarter-million Serbs, Gypsies, Jews, and other minorities fled Kosovo after Mr. Clinton promised to protect them. By 2003, almost 70 percent of the Serbs living in Kosovo in 1999 had fled, and Kosovo was 95 percent ethnic Albanian.

  But Thaci remained useful for U.S. policymakers. Even though he was widely condemned for oppression and corruption after taking power in Kosovo, Vice President Joe Biden hailed Thaci in 2010 as the “George Washington of Kosovo.” A few months later, a Council of Europe report accused Thaci and KLA operatives of human organ trafficking. The Guardian noted that the report alleged that Thaci’s inner circle “took captives across the border into Albania after the war, where a number of Serbs are said to have been murdered for their kidneys, which were sold on the black market.” The report stated that when “transplant surgeons” were “ready to operate, the [Serbian] captives were brought out of the ‘safe house’ individually, summarily executed by a KLA gunman, and their corpses transported swiftly to the operating clinic.”

  Despite the body trafficking charge, Thaci was a star attendee at the annual Global Initiative conference by the Clinton Foundation in 2011, 2012, and 2013, where he posed for photos with Bill Clinton. Maybe that was a perk from the $50,000 a month lobbying contract that Thaci’s regime signed with The Podesta Group, co-managed by future Hillary Clinton campaign manager John Podesta, as the Daily Caller reported.

  Clinton remains a hero in Kosovo where a statue of him was erected in the capital, Pristina. The Guardian newspaper noted that the statue showed Clinton “with a left hand raised, a typical gesture of a leader greeting the masses. In his right hand he is holding documents engraved with the date when NATO started the bombardment of Serbia, 24 March 1999.” It would have been a more accurate representation to depict Clinton standing on a pile of corpses of the women, children, and others killed in the U.S. bombing campaign.

  In 2019, Bill Clinton and his fanatically pro-bombing former Secretary of State, Madeline Albright, visited Pristina, where they were “treated like rock stars” as they posed for photos with Thaci. Clinton declared, “I love this country and it will always be one of the greatest honors of my life to have stood with you against ethnic cleansing (by Serbian forces) and for freedom.” Thaci awarded Clinton and Albright medals of freedom “for the liberty he brought to us and the peace to entire region.” Albright has reinvented herself as a visionary warning against fascism in the Trump era. Actually, the only honorific that Albright deserves is “Butcher of Belgrade.”

  Clinton’s war on Serbia was a Pandora’s box from which the world still suffers. Because politicians and most of the media portrayed the war against Serbia as a moral triumph, it was easier for the Bush administration to justify attacking Iraq, for the Obama administration to bomb Libya, and for the Trump administration to repeatedly bomb Syria. All of those interventions sowed chaos that continues cursing the purported beneficiaries.

  Bill Clinton’s 1999 bombing of Serbia was as big a fraud as George W. Bush’s conning this nation into attacking Iraq. The fact that Clinton and other top U.S. government officials continued to glorify Hashim Thaci despite accusations of mass murder, torture, and body trafficking is another reminder of the venality of much of America’s political elite. Will Americans again be gullible the next time that Washington policymakers and their media allies concoct bullshit pretexts to blow the hell out of some hapless foreign land?

  

• Meijer Stops Accepting Cash As Nationwide Coin Shortage Erupts
  Meijer Stops Accepting Cash As Nationwide Coin Shortage Erupts
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 22:25

  We recently penned a piece on a developing nationwide coin shortage sparked by the virus pandemic. As a result of the shortage, at least one major supermarket chain has removed the ability to pay in cash at self-scan checkout machines. 

  Meijer Inc., a supermarket chain based in the Midwest, with corporate headquarters in Walker, Michigan, announced last Friday, that self-scan checkout machines at 250 supercenters would only accept credit or debit cards, SNAP and EBT cards, and gift cards.

  They’re probably all in the fountains. A national coin shortage? @meijer? 🤔🤨🤷🏼‍♀️ pic.twitter.com/rzKe68WBqw

  — Silvia A. Mansoor (@SilviaMansoor) June 30, 2020

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  “While we understand this effort may be frustrating to some customers,” spokesman Frank Guglielmi told ABC12 News Team. “It’s necessary to manage the impact of the coin shortage on our stores.”

  Fed Chair Powell admitted to lawmakers last week that The Fed has been rationing coins as the circulation of coins across the US economy ground to a halt due to the pandemic.

  “What’s happened is that with the partial closure of the economy, the flow of coins through the economy … it’s kind of stopped,” Powell told lawmakers.

  He said the shortage was due to the mass business closures that prevented people from spending their coins, as well as a lack of places that are open where people can trade coins for paper bills. 

  “We’ve been aware of it, we’re working with the Mint to increase supply, we’re working with the reserve banks to get the supply to where it needs to be,” Powell said, adding he expected the problem to be temporary.

  Americans Googling “coin shortage” started to erupt in the back half of June and has since hit a record high. Mainly people in Midwest states are searching for the search term. 

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  Google search “coin shortage” shows the issue isn’t limited to Meijer stores but is widespread. 

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  Social media users report the shortage is happening at many big-box retailers. 

  🙏♥️✌

  Meijer not accepting cash at self check out due to coin shortagehttps://t.co/eHL0nUqAqc

  — Long Haired Hippie Rebel 🕉 (@lbox327) June 30, 2020

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  Coin shortage?
  Yeah right…..

  Ya think there might be something else going on behind the scenes that the media aren’t talking about?🤔 https://t.co/o37H3KmReC pic.twitter.com/z8j8FjtygE

  — MajorTom🚀✈️⚡️🇳🇿🇦🇺☧ (@MajorTomXRP) June 28, 2020

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  Coin shortage? Guess we getting our news from @cvspharmacy in 2020 pic.twitter.com/sXdQSQAk7l

  — Aaron Soriano (@aaroninbrooklyn) June 26, 2020

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  My job…. now where in the hell is the coins going? pic.twitter.com/Le8k1ApFeH

  — woo. (@i_INTIMIDATE_uu) June 27, 2020

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  Really? A coin shortage? pic.twitter.com/rsOk2Wg2FF

  — Mike 🏌🏻 (@NYRfan46) June 28, 2020

  Is this a sly move to ban cash transactions in favor of credit cards under the guise of a coronavirus-related issue? 

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• China Caught Smuggling 10,800 Assault Weapons Parts Into Louisville By US Customs
  China Caught Smuggling 10,800 Assault Weapons Parts Into Louisville By US Customs
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 22:05

  Via GreatGameIndia.com,

  China has been caught smuggling 10,800 Assault Weapons parts into Louisville by US Customs and Border Protection officers. The shipment arriving from Shenzhen, China, and destined for a residence in Melbourne, Florida was seized on May 22. The parcel was manifested as containing 100 Steel Pin Samples – a common practice used by smugglers for contraband trafficking.

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  China Caught Smuggling 10,800 Assault Weapons Parts Into Louisville By US Customs

  At the Express Consignment Operations hubs in Louisville U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers seized a shipment from China that contained over 10,000 Assault Weapons parts being smuggled into the country. As per the CBP press release:

  The shipment was seized on May 22. Officers inspected the item, which was arriving from Shenzhen, China, destined for a residence in Melbourne, Florida. The parcel was manifested as containing 100 Steel Pin Samples. This is a common practice of smugglers manifesting the contraband as a harmless or a legitimate commodity in hopes of eluding further examination.

  10K assault weapons parts seized—CBP officers in Louisville recently intercepted over 10K assault weapons parts arriving from China in a shipment manifested as “100 steel pin samples.” Learn more via @CBPChicago: https://t.co/KhqaSdoxFn pic.twitter.com/eBrCXpSLyB

  — CBP (@CBP) June 28, 2020

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  Thomas Mahn, the Port Director at Louisville said that the Chinese smugglers were knowingly trying to avoid detection and smuggle in Assault Weapons parts into US.

  “The importing of any type of munitions is regulated by the ATF,” said Thomas Mahn, Port Director, Louisville.

  “This smuggler was knowingly trying to avoid detection, however, our officers remain vigilant, ensuring our community is safe.”

  The CBP Center of Excellence and Expertise, Machinery team estimate the domestic value of the shipment to be $129,600.

  Earlier, in February, Indian intelligence caught  China secretly shipping nuclear arms to Pakistan. The ship belonged to a Chinese shipping company COSCO blacklisted by the Americans last year. Sources in Coastal intelligence told GreatGameIndia the intercept was based on a tip-off from the Americans who were monitoring the entire fleet of the shipping line believed to be a front of Chinese intelligence.

  The weapons shipment from Chinese smugglers has been caught at a time when the United States of America has been caught in the grip of a civil-war. The issue is complicated by the fact that the group leading the civil-unrest movement, the Black Lives Matter has direct ties to known terrorists.

  Numerous Black Lives Matter organizers have ties to extremist movements of the past, and are not some brand new movement simply fighting for marginalized people today. Black Lives Matter has declared war on the police and has released a blueprint for Black Panther style armed ‘patrols’ monitoring police officers on the streets. BLM’s leader revealed in an exclusive interview that they are mobilizing a highly-trained military arm.

  

• "Book Your Dome" – Yoga Bubbles In A Social Distancing World 
  “Book Your Dome” – Yoga Bubbles In A Social Distancing World 
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 21:45

  As US daily COVID-19 cases hit a record on Friday, recording 45,242, the most significant single-day jump of the entire virus pandemic, several states, including Texas, Florida, and California (states with current flare-ups), are now rethinking reopening plans. 

  The emergence of the second coronavirus wave could be problematic for gyms and fitness studios that have recently opened because health officials could quickly shut these facilities backdown. 

  One possible alternative that fitness centers could adopt to satisfy health officials in an era of social distancing is yoga domes. 

  A pop-up yoga studio in Toronto, Canada, located on the grounds of Lake Ontario-front Hotel X, has installed 50 yoga bubbles that measure 7 feet tall and 12 feet wide. 

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  Each bubble is outfitted with heating and cooling systems, allowing attendees of classes to practice safe yoga while minimizing virus transmission risks.  

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  “The domes are our design. We actually fabricate them in Canada here,” Steve Georgiev, the yoga event organizer, told Reuters. 

  Classes began last week, is hosted by Lmnts Outdoor Studio in conjunction with local yoga studios in the Greater Toronto Area.

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  “Everybody’s been really cooped up for the last few months and haven’t been able to go out,” Georgiev said. “This allows us to do this in a safe and responsible way, where people get to enjoy … a group fitness activity in a private environment.”

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  A world of social distancing will be here until a proven vaccine is seen and mass-produced. So, in the meantime, get used to COVID bubbles, if that is at the yoga studio or at restaurants. 

  

• Where New College Grads Want To Work During The COVID-19 Crisis
  Where New College Grads Want To Work During The COVID-19 Crisis
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 21:25

  Authored by Amanda Stansell of Glassdoor

  Key Findings

  • During the COVID-19 crisis, new grad-related job openings have dropped 68 percent from this time last year, but new grads are still aspiring to work in tech. Seven of the top 10 employers attracting the most new grad applications are tech companies.
  • Amazon and Microsoft attracted the most job applications from new grads on Glassdoor in May 2020. TikTok also received significant interest from new grads, receiving the fifth highest number of job applications from recent graduates.
  • New grads are still gravitating towards technical roles. Software engineer, data analyst, and business analyst are the roles seeing the most job applications during the COVID-19 crisis, accounting for 18 percent of all new grad applications during this time.

  With tens of millions of people newly unemployed, the class of 2020 has stepped into one of the worst job markets in history. As of May 2020, the number of open jobs on Glassdoor that contain “entry level” or “new grad” in the job title has dropped 68 percent from this time last year. Now, confronting this significant drop in the number of open jobs, new grads are commencing their job searches in a profoundly different economic environment than could have been imagined a few months ago. 

  Where do new grads want to work? Using U.S.-based Glassdoor jobs and salary data, we show where new college grads in the United States are applying in the midst of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and economic crisis.

  What We Did

  For this analysis, we used a large sample of real-world job applications started on Glassdoor between May 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020, by users likely to be recent college graduates. We define new graduates as those with a bachelor’s degree born in 1994 or later (aged 26 or younger). We then used these data to show which employers, metros, and occupations new graduate job seekers are applying to most frequently in the U.S. during the COVID-19 crisis. Similarly, to estimate pay for new grads, we examined anonymous Glassdoor salary reports left between May 1, 2019, and April 30, 2020, by U.S.-based employees aged 26 or younger with a bachelor’s degree. 

  Where are New Grads Applying to Work?  

  The table below shows the top jobs that new grads are applying to during the COVID-19 crisis and the estimated salary for each. Software engineer applications accounted for 8 percent of all job applications from new grads in May, making it the most popular role to apply to for new grads. This is not surprising given its high salary of over $94,000 for workers fresh out of college. Additionally, there are several other high paying roles attracting new grads in May, including data scientist and software developer. 

  However, money is not the only factor driving applications. New college grads are also applying to some lower paying jobs that have shown resilience during the COVID-19 crisis and often allow remote work options. Administrative assistant and sales representative were two of the jobs in the top ten roles new grads were applying to in May. 

  Top 10 Jobs Attracting New Grad Job Seekers

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  Source: Glassdoor Economic Research (Glassdoor.com/research)

   The table below shows the top 10 companies that new grads applied to in May 2020. High-profile employers including Amazon, Microsoft, and Goldman Sachs stood out to new grads during these uncertain times. 

  With seven of the top 10 companies on this list in the tech industry, it’s clear that tech employers haven’t lost their appeal among new graduates amid a shaky job market. Interestingly, a relatively new social media company, TikTok, is already gathering strong interest from new grads. New grad job seekers also aspire to work at non-tech companies like Goldman Sachs, EY, and Randstad. 

  Even within industries that have seen job declines in recent months, there are some bright spots of employers still hiring. For example, Amazon has been hiring intensively for warehouse and delivery roles in response to booming e-commerce during the pandemic, and is hiring for many corporate roles as well. Several of these employers are having hiring surges right now, as highlighted on Glassdoor, including Microsoft, Apple, and Google.  

  Top 10 Employers Attracting New Grads During COVID-19

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  Next, we look at the major metros where new grad job seekers are seeking work. The table below highlights the top 10 cities where new grads are applying to jobs. New York City accounts for 15 percent of all new grad applications, followed by Los Angeles with eight percent. While these job openings are listed in specific metro areas, many of these jobs may begin remotely as many companies continue to work from home during the COVID-19 crisis.  

  Top 10 Metros for New Grad Job Applications

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  Conclusion  

  New grads are being forced to search for jobs in the midst of a pandemic. However, like previous grads, they are still applying to tech giants like Amazon (that are boosting hiring in response to COVID-19), and others,  like Microsoft and Apple, known for their strong company cultures. New grads are also applying to jobs at trendy companies like TikTok. Even though the backdrop of their job hunt has changed dramatically over the past few months,  leveraging Glassdoor data and insights provides a deeper understanding of the career interests of this newly graduated class of job seekers during a particularly challenging time.

  

• "Red Flags Galore": Companies Sold A Mindblowing $113 Billion In Stock In Q2
  “Red Flags Galore”: Companies Sold A Mindblowing $113 Billion In Stock In Q2
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 21:05

  When it comes to bearish market flow red flags, aggressive selling of stock by corporate insiders is traditionally viewed as the biggest red flag – after all nobody knows the prospects for their companies better than the people who run them – followed closely by companies selling stock. The logic is simple: why sell today if you believe you may get a better price tomorrow.The answer is simple: you don’t, and instead you rush to lock in gains afforded by the market today.

  In which case, it’s “red flags galore” because as the following chart from Goldman’s head of European Equity Sales, Mark Wilson, shows companies haven’t sold this much stock in a single quarter in… well, forever.

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  According to Bloomberg data, secondary offerings in the U.S. raised $113 billion in the second quarter, the most on record. The nearly 400 deals that priced this quarter is also the most ever.

  As Goldman adds, “we’re about to close out another record month of global equity issuance, with June set to eclipse the recent record set in May; the numbers (>$230b of supply in 7 weeks), and the market’s ability to absorb this sizeable supply, have been impressive (the quantum of global supply vs prior peak periods shown in the 1st chart; US supply vs recent years trend shown in 2nd chart)”

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  Following up on this staggering pace of equity sales, Bloomberg writes that “the record-high pace of secondary offerings that took hold in the second quarter is poised to continue into the summer” as share sales by U.S.-listed firms and their top holders raised the most money and happened the most frequently of any other quarter on record.

  With coronavirus shutdowns creating a sudden need for cash, issuers found an opportunity in a stock market that came roaring back from depths of the selloff in March. The paradox, of course, is that companies dumped stocks – with buybacks largely dormant – to a market dominated by (mostly young) daytraders who were so eager to lap anything up they almost bought an equity offering of worthless stock by bankrupt Hertz, another unprecedented event.

  And in recent weeks activity has continued apace, with Bloomberg predicting that this promises big things for the third quarter as Covid-19 continues to rattle the economy. Convertible bond issuance also surged this quarter. Those deals amounted to more than triple the cash raised in the second quarter of 2019 as some companies needing money looked to minimize the impact of dilution while capitalizing on lower rates.

  It’s not just companies that have benefited from the unprecedented demand for equities: for bankers, these deals have been a helpful avenue to recoup business lost to the slowdown in initial public offerings and M&A activity.

  And all of this was, of course, started by the Fed which unleashed trillions in liquidity, including buying corporate bonds and ETFs – the Fed is now a Top 5 shareholder in some of the biggest bond ETFs…

  The Federal Reserve is now:
  #3 holder of LQD
  #5 holder of JNK
  #2 holder of VCSH
  #5 holder of VCIT

  The @federalreserve has taken over capital markets under the false pretext of “helping the middle class” pic.twitter.com/PiEocURL16

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 30, 2020

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  … all under the convenient lie that it is laboring on behalf of the US middle class.

  

• The COVID Crisis Supercharged The War On Cash, Part 1
  The COVID Crisis Supercharged The War On Cash, Part 1
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 20:45

  Authored by Claudio Grass,

  The corona crisis has already taken a very high toll and caused deep damage in our societies and our economies, the extent of which is yet to become apparent. We have seen its impact on productivity, on unemployment, on social cohesion and on political division. However, there is another very worrying trend that has been accelerated under the veil of fear and confusion that the pandemic has spread. The war on cash, that was already underway for almost a decade, has been drastically intensified over the last few months. 

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  The “problem”

  Over the last years, and as the war on cash escalated, we’ve gotten used to hear certain arguments or “reasons” on why we should all abandon paper money and move en masse to an exclusively digital economy. These talking points have been repeated over and over, in most western economies and by countless institutional figures. “Cash is used by terrorists, money launderers and criminals” is arguably the most oft-repeated one, as it’s been widely employed in most debates about the digital transition. Just a couple of years ago, it was also used by Mario Draghi, to support the decision to scrap the 500 euro note. We didn’t get any specific information or data about how many terrorists were actually using this high-denomination note, but we do know a lot of law-abiding citizens were using it to save, as did small business owners for their operational liquidity needs.

  Now, however, the corona crisis has introduced a whole new direction of anti-cash rhetoric and fresh arguments in favor of a digital economy. Even in the early stages of the pandemic, when essentially nothing was concretely known about the virus itself or its transmission, the seeds of new fears were already planted by sensational media reports and fear-mongering political and institutional figures. The insidious idea that “you can catch Covid through cash” might have been prematurely spread, but it did stick in most people’s minds. This is, of course, understandable, given the extremely high levels of uncertainty and anxiety in the general public. Wanting to eliminate potential threats was a natural instinct and so was the urge to take back at least some control over our lives, after they’d been suddenly thrown into utter chaos in the wake of the global economic freeze.

  Another factor that concretely helped the shift away from physical cash was an entirely practical one. Given the lockdown measures and the new “social distancing” directives that were enforced all over the world, it became difficult to use cash, even if you really wanted to, or had no other means of transaction, as is the case for billions of people. With physical stores being forced to shut down and with more and more online shops offering contactless delivery (either as a choice or as a service requirement), the need for cash very quickly gave way to digital payments.

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  For most of us, who have access to online banking, cards or other digital payment services, this introduced no real inconvenience and we probably didn’t even give it a second thought. However, for many of our fellow citizens it was a serious impediment, which in some cases blocked their access to basic goods and essential supplies. Contrary to the glowing promises of the digital economy, of financial inclusion and convenience, the fact remains that there are still millions of people who simply do not have access to this brave new world. According to figures by the World Bank, globally there are 2.5 billion people with no bank account, with a high concentration in the developing world. In the West too, however, there is a very large part of the population that is unbanked and/or has no access to digital solutions, while the elderly are also to a very large extent “locked out” of the digital economy. For all these millions of people, cash is the only way to save, to transact and to cover their basic needs.

  The “solution”

  With cash being presented not just as a danger to society and to national security, but also as a direct health hazard due to the coronavirus, the push towards digital alternatives has been massively reinforced over the last few months. Both international organizations and individual governments have actively participated and encouraged this push, some through public guidance statements and others through the blunt enforcement of direct rules and measures that leave no real room for their citizens to make their own choices.

  The CDC in its official guidance to retail workers recommenced that they “encourage customers to use touchless payment options”, while a report by the Word Bank highlighted the need to adopt cashless payments for the sake of “social protection”. The UAE Central Bank encouraged the use of online banking and digital payments “as a measure to protect the health and safety of UAE residents”, and the Bank of England has acknowledged that banknotes can hold “bacteria and viruses” and recommended that people wash their hands after handling money. In March, a report from Reuters revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve was quarantining dollars that it repatriated from Asia and so did South Korea’s central bank, while banks in China were forced by the government to disinfect bills and keep them in a safe for up to 14 days, before putting them in circulation.

  A highlight, however, came in May, when the World Economic Forum published an article in its “Global Agenda” strongly supporting the mass adoption of digital payments, for the sake of public health. In it, the authors argue that “contactless digital payments at the point of sale, such as facial recognition, Quick Response (QR) codes or near-field communications (NFC), can make it less likely for the virus to spread to others through cash exchanges.” They also applauded the efforts of China in digitalizing payments and appeared to hold the country and its measures as a model to be emulated: “China’s path to enabling digital payments should provide some lessons to other countries eager to follow suit.” Since a number of Western governments may indeed be “eager to follow suit”, let us take a closer look at this bright example and examine what it really entails.

  Fiat money 2.0

  The digitalization drive in all aspects of the Chinese state, society and economy is nothing new and it certainly predated the emergence of Covid-19. The country’s infamous “social rating system” has made headlines years ago and the government’s eagerness to use technology, the internet and all sorts of digital systems to track its citizens’ behaviors and affiliations has long attracted International criticism and widespread condemnation by human rights organizations, privacy advocates and free speech supporters. Now, however, the state has been given a reason to accelerate its efforts in the mass adoption of digital payments and the abandonment of cash. 

  To a large extent, this digitalization of payments task was much easier in China, as digital payments there are already very widespread in the population. More than 80% of consumers already used mobile payments in 2019, according to management consultancy Bain, a sharp contrast with the US that had adoption rates of less than 10%. So, as the population has already accepted a new way of payment, the new initiative sought to dominate the means of payment too. Thus, a new “digital yuan” was introduced. This new fiat currency, that has been in development for over 5 years, was rolled out in April in four Chinese cities with a plan for national adoption soon, so that it eventually replaces the physical legal tender.

  This so-called Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) will be put into circulation through China’s big four state banks and citizens will be able to receive and use it by downloading an electronic wallet application authorized by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which will be linked to their bank account. On the surface, it appears to work just like the old currency. It is issued and backed by the PBOC, it’s valued the same as the physical banknotes and, thanks to partnerships with Alipay and WeChat Pay, that control 80% of the country’s payment market, it will be used to get paid by anyone and to pay for anything. In fact, some public servant salaries and state subsidies are already being paid out in this new digital yuan, arriving in their intended recipients’ digital wallets.

  According to China’s state media People’s Daily, the new currency is meant to simplify domestic transactions and trade, but it will also facilitate and ease cross border transactions. The implication there is clear: It is yet another attempt to challenge the global dominance of the USD, after the Belt and Road initiative failed to really move the needle as the Chinese state had hoped. The strategy of spending of huge amounts of Chinese money abroad did provide some leverage over developing countries, but it didn’t come anywhere near “dethroning” the Dollar and internationalizing the Renminbi. Perhaps, this initiative will fare better, especially as it now has the “first-mover” advantage.

  Entering this “digital fiat” arena first is hugely important and the timing of the currency’s launch was no coincidence. The development and the rollout plan were significantly accelerated following Facebook’s announcement of the Libra, as the Chinese state wouldn’t have the private tech giant beat them to the punch. In fact, the digital yuan resembles the Libra in many ways. Most importantly, neither of them is a cryptocurrency, which is decentralized by design and allows for peer to peer transactions without the need of an intermediary or third party. In this case, the issuer is the third party and all transactions go through a very centralized system that controls and has access to all the data. In another non-coincidence just a few years back, China’s government banned initial coin offerings and placed great burdens on cryptocurrencies and crypto-investors making it very hard to operate in the country, thereby dismantling the threat of potential competition from the private sector and clearing the way for its own digital coin. 

  *  *  *

  In the upcoming second part, we take a closer look at the wider implications of this digital transition and we look ahead at the impact of this shift as it spreads to the West.  

  

• Gordon Johnson: Warranty Accounting Impropriety At Tesla Similar To Accounting At Wirecard
  Gordon Johnson: Warranty Accounting Impropriety At Tesla Similar To Accounting At Wirecard
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 20:25

  Right around the same time that Tesla was leaking to electrek that the company could break even in Q2 despite the pandemic, analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research was putting his clients on notice about “continued deception” and “accounting impropriety” that is “similar” to Wirecard.

  Of course, the stock responded on Tuesday to only one of these two reports, surging higher on the back of Musk’s comments and a continued gamma squeeze helped along by multi-million dollar sweeps of $1500 and $1800 calls on Monday. 

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  Regardless, Johnson’s note about Tesla’s warranty accounting talks about serious issues that eventually may not be able to be ignored. Johnson estimates on Monday that Tesla has recognized just $1,427 per car in warranty reserves versus the $3,308 per car that it should. This has led to a gross profit overstatement of $148.93 million, according to Johnson:

  If you take TSLA’s adjusted warranty reserve in 1Q20 of $78.95mn and divide by its adjusted aggregate cars on the road of 763,755, you arrive at a number of $103.37/car; thus, given TSLA provides an 8-yr battery/motor warranty, and thus every car sold is still under warranty, $103.37/car x 32 = $3,308/car of lifetime expense x 79,200 cars sold and on the road in 1Q20 = the amount TSLA should have taken in 1Q20 pre-adjustment warranty provision (~$275mn) ; yet, taking the adjusted 1Q20 warranty provision of $119mn vs. 79,200 cars on the road, TSLA recognized just $1,427/car in reserves in 1Q20.

  So ($3,308/car x 79,200 cars on the road) – ($1,427/car x 79,200 cars on the road) = gross profit overstatement of $148.932mn. This is a pretty big deal, and not only overstates gross margin, but also overstates net income – see below for TSLA classifying warranty cost as “goodwill”.

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  Johnson then posted several examples of the company accounting for warranty costs as goodwill, thus artificially boosting its gross margin and net income.

  Interestingly, Johnson also noted last week that Tesla’s end of quarter push didn’t seem to be going well, which contradicts what has apparently been leaked to electrek. Johnson noted that Florida and Texas were very important markets to monitor since they were the closest to “real-time” of any U.S. Tesla data sets. New York and California, he noted, were 1-2 months behind. 

  Johnson noted the following trends last week:

  • OVERALL THIS WEEK (i.e., the most important week for TSLA’s 2Q20 numbers): Model 3 slowing in FL; Model Y slowing in FL; Model Y slowing in TX; Model 3 accelerating, slightly, in TX.
  • FLORIDA THIS WEEK (i.e., the most important week for TSLA’s 2Q20 numbers): Last week TSLA was averaging 54 3+Y/day; this week, so far, it’s 40.
  • TEXAS THIS WEEK (i.e., the most important week for TSLA’s 2Q20 numbers): Last week TSLA was averaging 36 3+Y/day; this week, so far, it’s 39 (the data come in much stronger than expected today – the strength is 100% from the Model 3).

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  Johnson concluded that “the end-of-quarter push is the weakest it’s been since they ran out of cars in 4Q19 (unlike then, however, this time they have a record level of inventory)”.

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  And for those not familiar with accounting who still want the gist of Johnson’s note, we’ll refer you to this Tweet, which popped up yesterday:

  Tesla Model 3 on fire & still moving. No other details known. $TSLA pic.twitter.com/UHUUfH5cUc

  — KillingMyCareer (@MelaynaLokosky) June 29, 2020

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• General Flynn To The 'Silent Majority': "Wake Up! America's At Risk Of Being Lost"
  General Flynn To The ‘Silent Majority’: “Wake Up! America’s At Risk Of Being Lost”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 20:05

  Authored by General Michael Flynn (ret.), op-ed via WesternJournal.com,

  I was once told if we’re not careful, 2 percent of the passionate will control 98 percent of the indifferent 100 percent of the time.

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  The more I’ve thought about this phrase, the more I believe it. There is now a small group of passionate people working hard to destroy our American way of life. Treason and treachery are rampant and our rule of law and those law enforcement professionals who uphold our laws are under the gun more than at any time in our nation’s history. These passionate 2 percent appear to be winning.

  Despite there being countless good people trying to come to grips with everything else on their plates, our silent majority (the indifferent) can no longer be silent.

  If the United States wants to survive the onslaught of socialism, if we are to continue to enjoy self-government and the liberty of our hard-fought freedoms, we have to understand there are two opposing forces: One is the “children of light” and the other is the “children of darkness.”

  As I recently wrote, the art and exercise of self-governance require active participation by every American. I wasn’t kidding! And voting is only part of that active participation. Time and again, the silent majority have been overwhelmed by the “audacity and resolve” of small, well-organized, passionate groups. It’s now time for us, the silent majority (the indifferent), to demonstrate both.

  The trials of our current times, like warfare, are immense and consequences severe and these seem inconquerable.

  As a policewoman from Virginia told me, “People don’t feel safe in their homes and our police force is so demoralized we cannot function as we should. In my 23 years with my department, I have never seen morale so low.”

  Another woman from Mississippi told me that we need our leaders to “drop a forceful hammer. People are losing patience. It simply must be stopped! Laws MUST be enforced … no one is above the law.”

  Don’t fret. Through smart, positive actions of resolute citizen-patriots, we can prevail. Always keep in mind that our enemy (these dark forces) invariably have difficulties of which we are ignorant.

  For most Americans, these forces appear to be strong. I sense they are desperate. I also sense that only a slight push on our part is all that is required to defeat these forces. How should that push come?

  Prayers help and prayers matter, but action is also a remedy. Our law enforcement professionals, from the dispatcher to the detective and from the cop to the commissioner, are a line of defense against the corrupt and the criminal. It is how we remain (for now) in a state of relatively peaceful existence.

  We must support them with all our being. They are not the enemy; they bring light to the darkness of night through their bravery and determination to do their jobs without fanfare and with tremendous sacrifice.

  The silent majority (the indifferent) tend to go the way of those leading them. We are not map- or mind-readers; we are humans fraught with all the hopes and fears that flesh is heir to. We must not become lost in this battle. We must resoundingly follow our God-given common sense.

  Seek the truth, fight for it in everything that is displayed before you. Don’t trust the fake news or false prophets; trust your instincts and your common sense. Those with a conscience know the difference between right and wrong, and those with courage will always choose the harder right over the easier wrong.

  I believe the attacks being presented to us today are part of a well-orchestrated and well-funded effort that uses racism as its sword to aggravate our battlefield dispositions. This weapon is used to leverage and legitimize violence and crime, not to seek or serve the truth.

  The dark forces’ weapons formed against us serve one purpose: to promote radical social change through power and control. Socialism and the creation of a socialist society are their ultimate goals.

  They are also intent on driving God out of our families, our schools and our courts. They are even seeking the very removal of God from our churches, essentially hoping to remove God from our everyday lives.

  Remember, we will only remain united as “one nation under God.”

  And yes, there is a “resistance movement” by the forces of darkness. However, we must also resist these onslaughts and instead take an optimistic view of our situation. Like war, optimism can be pervasive and helps to subdue any rising sense of fear.

  We must, however, be deliberate about our optimism. Otherwise, we may get lost in discouragement and despair of any failings we encounter. We must be tenacious in the ultimate end we wish to gain. That end is to remain an unwavering constitutional republic based on a set of Judeo-Christian values and principles. We must not fear these and instead embrace each.

  Our path requires course corrections. To move our experiment in democracy forward, we should fight and reject the tired and failed political paths and instead pursue a more correct path that shines a bright light on liberty, a path with greater and greater control of our livelihoods instead of being controlled by fewer and fewer of the too-long-in-power politicians. They have discarded us like old trash.

  Our will, our individual liberties and freedoms, remain powerful forces and must be understood and applied smartly. We must not be overly stubborn. Following the Constitution as our guide and adapting to change as we have throughout history, we learn more about what freedoms humans desire.

  At times, however, we have to fall back on what got us here. We cannot afford to lose our God-given human rights and the strong inner desire for freedom to choose and to breathe the fresh air of liberty. We must stand up and speak out to challenge our so-called “leaders” of government. We put them in charge; we can remove them as well.

  It is through our rights and privileges as American citizens that we challenge the political class and leverage our election process so “we the people” can decide who will govern.

  We must not allow a small percentage of the powerful to overtake our position on America’s battlefield. We, as free-thinking and acting individuals, must control how we will live and not allow a few passionate others to change our way of life.

  To the silent and currently indifferent majority: Wake up. America is at risk of being lost in the dustbin of history to socialism. The very heart and soul of America is at stake.

  In war, as in life, most failure comes from inaction. We face a pivotal moment that can change the course of history of our nation.

  We the people must challenge every politician at every level.

  We also must stand and support our law enforcement professionals: They are the pointy end of the spear defending us against anarchy.

  Now is the time to act.

  

• India Sends Tanks Along Border To Prevent China "Redefining" Line Of Actual Control
  India Sends Tanks Along Border To Prevent China “Redefining” Line Of Actual Control
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 19:45

  Last week satellite imaging analysts based in the West observed a significant build-up of Chinese PLA forces along the India-Chinese border Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Galwan Valley. This included the expansion of what appeared permanent or semi-permanent bases, as well as tanks and artillery units, after the deadly June 15 Galwan Valley clash which left 20 Indian troops dead and an untold number of PLA casualties.  

  The Indian Army responded by sending its quick reaction surface-to-air missile systems known as Akash to the disputed border region, reported widely in Indian media Saturday. New Delhi is also now said to be seeking rapid S-400 acquirement from Russia.

  India has further apparently answered China’s tank build-up with its own in a continuing tit-for-tat deployment of additional forces. This despite ongoing deconfliction talks between the opposing military delegations. The Hindustan Times reports Tuesday the army has sent at least six T-90 Bhishma tanks to the LAC, along with additional defensive hardware such as shoulder fired anti-tank missiles for infantry troops.

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  The Hundustan Times describes the extra force deployment as specifically in answer to the PLA’s own tanks along the border:  

  The army’s decision to deploy the T-90 Bishma tanks was taken after the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had beefed up its positions on the river bed with armoured personnel carriers and troop tents. The Indian Army is occupying the dominant heights in the sector within its side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

  Infantry combat vehicles along with 155mm howitzers have been deployed all along 1597 km long LAC in East Ladakh with two tank regiments deployed in Chushul sector to repel any aggressive plans of the adversary through the Spanggur Gap. While Chinese PLA wants to make a deal on the LAC in this sector as part of withdrawal, the Indian Army is no mood to give an inch as the military aggression came from the Western Theatre Command of China with the intention of redefining the LAC.

  The report adds further that Indian commanders are prepared for a “long haul” deployment of additional forces and tanks to the border. 

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  This also as India’s air force and navy are said to be in their “highest state of alertness” according to widely circulating Indian media reports. 

  India’s military has been saying the “extraordinary circumstances” warrant both the build-up and altered rules of engagement giving local commanders “freedom of action” ability if provoked or attacked. 

  “There is no change in the rules as such. Our side will only react to provocations and in case of extraordinary circumstances,” former Indian director-general of military operations, Lt. Gen. Vinod Bhatia, previously said.

  

• US Tops 40k Daily COVID-19 Cases For 5th Time In 6 Days: Live Updates
  US Tops 40k Daily COVID-19 Cases For 5th Time In 6 Days: Live Updates
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 19:32

  Summary

  • US tops 40k daily cases for 5th time in 6 days
  • Texas reports record jump, deaths tick higher
  • Pence, Surgeon General urge mask wearing
  • WH spox says Trump has “no problem” with masks
  • San Quentin outbreak tops 1000 infected
  • California cases tick higher
  • FDA releases standards for COVID-19 vaccine
  • Fauci says US could see 100k new cases per day
  • NY Gov adds 8 states to ‘must-quarantine’ list
  • Stocks climb on Fla, NY case numbers
  • Texas moves to temporarily ban more types of elective procedures; hospitalizations fall
  • Bar owners sue Texas for reimposing lockdown
  • Dr. Fauci testifies to Senate HEL&P Committee
  • EU bars US travelers, as expected
  • Goldman says mask mandates can cut spread by 25%
  • Victoria imposes 1-month lockdown as cases climb
  • US sees total new cases below 40k for yesterday
  • LA County closes beaches for July 4th weekend
  • Indian PM makes speech as country approves plan to help supply food to 800 million
  • South Korea, Tokyo see rise in new cases
  • Morgan Stanley says total case number projection is now 3.8 million

  * * *

  Update (1900ET): For the fifth time in the past six days, the US has reported more than 40,000 cases daily, roughly double its weekly average for much of May.

  • U.S. CORONAVIRUS CASES RISE BY MORE THAN 40,000 ON TUESDAY, THE FIFTH TIME IN THE PAST SIX DAYS

  Hospitalizations also saw their biggest jump since April.

  Our daily update is now published.

  States reported over 44k new cases, the new normal. The 7-day average of new cases per day has doubled since 6/13, and now exceeds 41k.

  Current hospitalizations saw their biggest jump since 4/21.

  For details, see: https://t.co/PZrmH4bl5Y pic.twitter.com/uhD6Ifv8oT

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 30, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  What’s even more disturbing: Cases have climbed just enough in New Jersey and other parts of the northeast that the 7-day average in the region is no longer declining, but plateauing, meaning that not one region of the country is seeing average case totals decline. And the Midwest is seeing cases tick higher as states from Missouri to Illinois to Kansas to West Virginia reported record highs over the past week.

  The number of confirmed cases is no longer falling in any region of the country.

  The Northeast has been flat for 12 days. The Midwest is rising again. pic.twitter.com/ya0wuIXjt4

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 30, 2020

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  However, there are more than a dozens states, including NY, NJ, CT & Rhode Island (which entered phase 3 of its reopening plan on Monday) where the numbers are very much under control.

  One optimistic point: there are 15 states on the left side of this chart that are finding very few positive cases, even if they’re doing a lot of testing. This suggests their mitigation strategies are working. pic.twitter.com/i9bbZKvMkC

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 30, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It all underscores the warnings from Dr Fauci and Dr. Scott Gottlieb: this is a critical time for the US.

  * * *

  Update (1700ET): Texas just reported a new record daily jump in new cases, validating expectations that a backlog over the weekend would send Tuesday’s number even higher.

  • TEXAS POSTS RECORD 6,975 NEW VIRUS CASES; FATALITIES RISE 0.90%

  Texas is one of the four states generating more than a quarter of the US’s total cases, the other three being Florida, California and Arizona. Meanwhile, VP Pence and Surgeon General Jerome Adams have urged all Americans to wear masks.

  * * *

  Update (1400ET): White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany insisted during a hastily arranged press briefing on Tuesday that President Trump has “no problem with” wearing masks, reiterating a comment made by the president himself (he has said he has “no problem” with masks, but avoids wearing them because he says it doesn’t look “presidential”).

  It appears the briefing was called mostly to walk back some of Trump’s comments encouraging the anti-mask crowd, and double-down on claims Trump was never briefed about reports Russia bribed Taliban terrorists to kill American troops in Afghanistan.

  Meanwhile, the latest numbers show that US cases are up 1.9% on Tuesday, which is higher than the 1.6% 7-day average.

  • U.S. VIRUS CASES RISE BY 1.9%, ABOVE PAST WEEK’S 1.6% AVERAGE

  * * *

  Update (1530ET): An outbreak in California’s oldest, most infamous prison has spun out of control, Gov. Newsom acknowledged on Tuesday. San Quentin prison has more than 1,000 of its ~3,500 residents infected.

  California’s oldest correctional facility is battling a widespread coronavirus outbreak that has affected nearly a third of its inmates.

  San Quentin State Prison reported more than 1,000 positive coronavirus cases as of Monday morning, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a news briefing. The prison housed 3,507 inmates as of Wednesday, according to the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.

  “That is our deep area of focus and concern right now,” Newsom said. He said 42% of San Quentin’s inmate population is considered “medically vulnerable.”

  San Quentin’s outbreak is more than double the size of the one at the California Institution for Men in Chino. According to data released by the CDCR, there are 509 confirmed coronavirus cases at the institution. By Monday night, there were 1,059 confirmed cases at San Quentin, according to the same data.

  In other news, Florida has decided to start reporting total hospitalization figures again following criticism from a whistleblower who accused the state’s Department of Health of trying to deliberately misrepresent the severity of the outbreak.

  * * *

  Update (1515ET): Apparently, there’s going to be a WH press briefing in 15 mins.

  With 40 minutes notice, the White House just announced there will be a press briefing today.

  — Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) June 30, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Watch live here:

  * * *

  Update (1450ET): Dr. Fauci’s testimony ended hours ago, and the performance from Mnuchin & Powell was mostly a snoozefest (Mnuchin’s decision to briefly remove his mask seemed to generate an outsize share of commentary), but here’s an interesting snippet from the AP’s story on Dr. Fauci’s performance that we neglected to mention in our brief summary of the highlights.

  Lawmakers also pressed for what Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, the committee’s top Democrat, called a national vaccine plan — to be sure the race for the COVID-19 vaccine ends with shots that really are safe, truly protect and are available to all Americans who want, one.

  “We can’t take for granted this process will be free of political influence,” Murray said. She cited how President Donald Trump promoted a malaria drug as a COVID-19 treatment that ultimately was found to be risky and ineffective.

  The Food and Drug Administration released guidelines Tuesday saying any vaccine that wins approval will have to be at 50% more effective than a dummy shot in the final, required testing. That’s less effective than many of today’s vaccines but independent experts say that would be a good start against the virus.

  Dr. Fauci warned that the US is heading in the wrong direction, and warned that we could see 100k new cases a day, double the current rate, if states aren’t more proactive.

  * * *

  Update (1344ET): With the US on track to report fewer cases on Tuesday than it did on Monday (remember all these numbers come with a 24-hour delay), California just reported more new cases on Tuesday, with the number eclipsing both the prior day and the 7-day average increase.

  • CALIFORNIA COVID-19 CASES RISE 2.9% VS 2.8% 7-DAY AVERAGE

  According to CDC data, 35,664 new cases were reported Tuesday vs 41,075 a day ago.

  Circling back to Cali, the 6,367 new confirmed cases is the state’s second-biggest daily jump yet, bringing its total to 222,917. Deaths, meanwhile, climbed by 0.7%, or 44, to 5,980, while hospitalizations jumped 6.3% to a record 5,077 patients. The number of intensive-care patients also hit a new record, climbing 4.3% to 1,528. The state’s rate of positive tests over the past 14 days inched higher, to 5.6% from 5.5% a day ago.

  * * *

  Update (1330ET): Contradicting that “whisper number” on Texas hospitalizations earlier today (which we advised readers not to trust), Houston’s biggest hospital operator reported 97% ICU capacity on Tuesday.

  • HOUSTON-AREA ICU WARDS AT 97% OF CAPACITY: TEXAS MEDICAL CENTER

  That 97% level is up from 95% a day earlier, per TMC. COVID patients occupied 460 ICU beds as of Monday night, a 3.4% increase from Sunday, while virus victims accounted for ~35% of all ICU cases.

  Here’s Gov Abbott’s declaration from earlier intended to make more room for patients. He has also ordered a slowdown in the state’s reopening, in addition to other measures like closing bars.

  #Texas @GovAbbott issues proclamation to expand #Hospital capacity in 4 additional #TX counties due to surge in #coronavirus cases & hospitalizations. #TexasCovid19 pic.twitter.com/gqGkmxDx6o

  — Exante Data (@ExanteData) June 30, 2020

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  Meanwhile, here’s a rundown of Arizona’s hospitalization numbers from earlier.

  ARIZONA COVID stats today have some good news and some bad news.

  — Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) June 30, 2020

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  Bad news: Testing positivity remains still sky high: ~20%+, suggesting not enough people are getting tested.

  COVID/suspected COVID patients in hospital beds set another new record — 2,793 (+72).

  44 deaths reported today.

  — Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) June 30, 2020

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  Arizona hospitalization growth though hasn’t been quite as high as some recent days, ventilators in use down 2%.

  New cases are 4,682, technically a record, but that’s artificially boosted by delayed reporting which made yesterday’s number look artificially low.

  — Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) June 30, 2020

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  Visits to ERs by suspected COVID patients also peaked about a week ago in Arizona.

  — Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) June 30, 2020

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  By WaPo’s count, there are 7 states seeing hospitalizations hit record highs: Texas is included.

  * * *

  Update (1310ET): Perhaps the biggest news on Tuesday was Dr. Fauci’s testimony that the US could soon be reporting “100,000 COVID-19 cases per day” if the trend of rising case numbers doesn’t turn around soon. While deaths so far remain low, the doctor worries that mortality could surge in the fall if COVID-19 and the seasonal flu are circulating at the same time.

  As more Republicans join Chris Christie in urging President Trump to rethink his strategy, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy  encouraged President Trump to don a mask, while Alex Azar and even Goldman Sachs have urged people to wear masks in public.

  As hospitalizations continue to accelerate, 7 states, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, South Carolina, Montana, Georgia and California, are seeing seven-day averages at least 25% higher compared with last week, according to WaPo.

  On Tuesday, the FDA unveiled its criteria for vaccine candidates to win regulatory approval: any potential vaccine must prevent the disease or decrease its severity in at least 50% of people who receive the vaccine, while requiring drug companies to continue monitoring the vaccine for any “performance issues” after release.

  * * *

  Update (1130ET): NY Gov Andrew Cuomo just added 8 more states to the state’s “must-quarantine” list. Travelers from these states must quarantine for 2 weeks upon arriving in New York.

  If you’re traveling to New York from the following states you must self-quarantine for 14 days.

  The states are: AL, AR, AZ, CA, FL, GA, IA, ID, LA, MS, NC, NV, SC, TN, TX, UT.

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) June 30, 2020

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  Anybody caught violating the quarantine could face massive fines of between $2,000 and $10,000. Presumably, Connecticut and New Jersey, which joined NY in adopting the quarantine earlier this month, will also move to add these states to their lists for the 14-day quarantine order.

  The 8 new states join South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Washington and Utah on the list. Meanwhile, critics have accused Cuomo & Co. of hypocrisy after the NY governor infamously threatened to sue Rhode Island for targeting New Yorkers hoping to escape to properties in Rhode Island and quarantine there instead of hellish NYC. Cuomo claims the situation is different because he’s not targeting just one state, like Rhode Island was allegedly doing, according to Cuomo.

  Meanwhile, in Texas, the state has expanded its temporary ban on elective procedures to free up more resources for coronavirus patients. In Texas and other states seeing a coronavirus resurgence, local leaders expressed frustration that inflexible state-level reopening and health guidelines have led to mixed messaging and contributed to the resurgence in cases.

  More than 30 bar owners in the state are suing to try and block the governor from ordering all bars to close again due to the pandemic. We suspect the battle will be intense, as Gov Abbott has conceded that reopening bars was a “mistake”.

  * * *

  Update (1100ET): Stocks are moving higher on a spate of new data out of Florida and New York. In Fla., cases climbed day-over-day but remained below their peak levels from last week.

  Florida added 6093 new COVID-19 cases overnight:
  -152434 total cases (up from 146341)
  -14580 hospital admissions (up from 14354)
  -3505 deaths (up from 3447)
  -36820 in Dade (up from 35222)
  -15624 in Broward (up from 15045)
  -14150 in Palm Beach (up from 13711)

  — Brian Entin (@BrianEntin) June 30, 2020

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  New York’s numbers showed a string of 700+ daily numbers reported late last week might have been just a fluke, as positive test numbers have moved lower again.

  Today’s update on the numbers:

  52,025 tests were performed yesterday. 524 tests came back positive (1.0% of total).

  Total hospitalizations are at 891.

  Sadly, there were 13 COVID fatalities yesterday. pic.twitter.com/iHDZjiB9nT

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) June 30, 2020

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  And don’t forget to wear a mask…

  Wear. A. Mask. pic.twitter.com/cruhuzNjVI

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) June 30, 2020

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  …and keep those nursing homes protected.

  * * *

  Update (1020ET): Dr. Fauci kicks off his testimony to the Senate “HELP” (Health, Education, Labor & Pensions) Committee, Texas has just reported a 20% drop in hospitalizations with a warning on the dangers of the flu and COVID-19 supercharging the outbreak in the fall. However, as Texas, California, Arizona and others rollback some economic reopening measures, the ‘whisper’ number for Texas hospitalizations has just hit, and it looks like it’s down 20%.

  The number has fallen to 4,739 from 5,913 cases, a number that some have warned might be a misprint.

  * * *

  Update (0945ET): As expected, the EU has barred travelers from the US as it extends its travel ban for most of the world aside from a select handful of countries, including China.

  In addition to China, residents of the following countries are set to be allowed to travel to Europe as of July 1: Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia and Uruguay.

  In other news, comments made by a team of Goldman analysts are starting to get a lot of attention: Analysts at the bank projected that mandatory mask-wearing requirements could cut infection rates by 25%.

  Goldman Sachs argues a national face mask mandate could partially substitute for renewed lockdowns that would subtract ~5% frm GDP. Goldman estimates imply mask mandates cut the growth rate of infections by 25%

  — Jennifer Schonberger (@Jenniferisms) June 30, 2020

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  So now we have Goldman Sachs warning that mask wearing should be mandatory? Given the recent wave of corporate activism, it’s not terribly surprising. But it’s also certainly worth considering.

  * * *

  Arizona Gov Doug Ducey last night announced plans for a month-long rollback of the state’s economic reopening, closing bars, restaurants, movie theaters, water parks and other venues, while pushing back the first day of school in the state until Aug. 17. Hours later, on the other side of the world, the leaders of Australia’s second-most-populous state, Victoria, ordered 36 suburbs surrounding Melbourne, the country’s second biggest city, to try and stop a cluster that has emerged over the past couple of weeks.

  Australia never had a huge COVID-19 problem (the biggest outbreak before this incident in Victoria was caused by the “Ruby Princess” and the decision to allow infected passengers to disembark without any real scrutiny. Yet, weeks after its neighbor, New Zealand, declared the outbreak over, the country is seeing its worst outbreak yet.

  Beginning at midnight on Wednesday (local time), the first suburb-specific stay-at-home order will come into effect for 320,000 people, according to Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, who spoke at a news conference on Tuesday. For four weeks, residents in the suburbs will be seeing a return to lockdown conditions: They must stay home unless traveling for work, school, healthcare, exercise or food. Restaurants are back to takeout only just weeks after the reopening. Local leaders described the move as a devastating setback for the local economy.

  Most of Australia has reported zero or low single-digit daily increases in COVID-19 infections for weeks, Victoria has experienced double-digit increases for each of the previous 14 days, bringing Australia’s national daily totals back toward their highs. Victoria reported 64 new cases on Tuesday, down from the previous day’s 75 new cases.

  More lockdown news from overnight: Nevada Governor announced the state won’t hesitate to reimpose restrictions if state-wide trends don’t improve. Georgia Governor Kemp extended his state’s public health emergency until Aug. 11, while LA Mayor Eric Garcetti announced a ‘hard pause’ on cinema reopenings for the largest theater market in the US.

  As the number of new cases reported daily accelerates around the world, global cases have reached 10,278,458, according to JHU, while the worldwide death toll has hit 504,936. Elsewhere in Asia, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday unveiled plans to extend a plan to provide free grain to more than 800 million Indians until the end of November as the battle against the virus has left India’s economy in tatters. Though its daily number of new cases is off its highs, the numbers its seeing are still well above the peaks from just a couple of weeks ago. On Tuesday India reported 18,522 new cases, down from the 19,459 recorded the prior day, bringing the country’s total to 566,840. The country reported 418 new deaths, bringing the total to 16,893 deaths.

  Indian PM Narendra Modi said Tuesday that while the country’s COVID-19 death rate is “under control,” the country’s outbreak has reached a “critical juncture.”

  “People are becoming careless,” he said, adding, “we need to call out the violators.”

  Back in East Asia, South Korea confirmed 43 new cases, up from 42 a day ago, as total infections reach 12,800 with 282 deaths, while in Japan, Tokyo has found more than 50 new cases for the fifth day running, TV Asahi reported.

  China reports 19 new coronavirus cases, up from 12 a day earlier. Of the new infections, seven were in Beijing, which has been battling a fresh outbreak. China also reported four new asymptomatic patients, who tested positive for COVID-19 but showed no symptoms.

  Yesterday, US states recorded fewer than 40k new cases for the first time in a week.

  States reported ~36k new cases today. States typically report the fewest cases on Mondays (red in the chart) because of a weekend lag effect.

  For example, Arizona reported 600 cases today after four straight days over 3000 cases. pic.twitter.com/PUMWCzmlnI

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 29, 2020

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  And deaths remain at or close to their lowest levels from March.

  There were 332 reported deaths today. The 7-day average in deaths remains about unchanged.

  Why are deaths falling or holding steady while cases rise?

  Probably for a few reasons: https://t.co/ZXFERIyS6I pic.twitter.com/FkkYBQ7U96

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 29, 2020

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  In the US, a team of Morgan Stanley analysts determined, according to a research note published Tuesday, the US reproduction number has remained at 1.17 since last week, while the time for the number of total cases to double has declined slightly to 41 days (vs 46 days last week), “suggesting that spread is ongoing and accelerating. Our total predicted infections now stand at 3.8M.”

  Following a move to rollback California’s economic reopening by closing bars and other venues, LA has joined a growing group of cities around the country that are planning to close their beaches for the July 4 weekend.

  BREAKING: All L.A. County beaches ordered CLOSED for 4th of July weekend 7/3 through 7/6. This new order makes it illegal to trespass at these locations and is punishable by law to include, but not limited to, a $1000 fine. @FOXLA

  — Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) June 29, 2020

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  Following a handful of vaccine-trial updates out of China, British media reported that a global trial designed to test whether the anti-malaria drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine can prevent infection with COVID-19 will soon re-start after being approved by regulators.

  Finally, the US isn’t on a “safe list” of destinations for non-essential travel due to be released by EU members later on Tuesday as the bloc unveils guidelines for leisure and business travel beyond its borders. For the past few days, a steady stream of leaks has claimed that the EU would exclude travelers from the US for the remainder of the summer, at least.

  

• The Problem With Government "Contact Tracing"
  The Problem With Government “Contact Tracing”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 19:25

  Authored by James Ketler via The Mises Institute,

  As states move through phases of reopening, “contact tracing” has remained a topic of national interest. For months now, talking heads in the government and media have hailed the strategy as the country’s saving grace. One NBC headline read, “Coronavirus contact tracing could stop COVID-19 and reopen America,” and a CNN article declared, “the US — or really any country — can’t safely reopen without significant amounts of contact tracing and testing”.

  With this starry-eyed perception, dozens of states have rushed to train and hire tens of thousands of contact tracers – what former CDC director Tom Frieden gleefully described as an “army” of tracers. 

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  It’s true that contact tracing has been an indispensable asset many times in the past – helping to snuff out viruses by diligently tracking their spread. So it’s no mystery why some health experts are flocking to it in the current crisis. 

  In short, this is how it works: contact tracers conduct short, over-the-phone interviews of newly-diagnosed patients about who they have recently been in close, physical contact with. The fear is that these recent contacts could have contracted the virus from the patient before he was diagnosed. These contacts are then phoned by tracers, informing them of this risk and encouraging them to seek testing and self-quarantine immediately. Tracers continue this process on down the line, with the aim of reducing the instances where the virus is transmitted

  A few states have also begun developing smartphone apps to conduct a digital form of contact tracing. Phones running the app exchange unique, encrypted numbers via Bluetooth, which are then stored on their devices. If an app user is diagnosed with COVID, he’s supposed to notify the app, which then publishes the log of numbers his phone received in the last fourteen days. If one of these numbers matches one stored on the device of another user, the app will send that user an alert that he’d been in recent contact with a newly-diagnosed COVID patient. 

  So far, the adoption of these apps has been left completely voluntary in the US, unlike other countries like China and South Korea. Overall, though, most of the states have yet to show much excitement towards digital tracing. The main focus remains on building an “army” to track the virus’ spread, no matter what it might cost the country.

  Financial Costs

  Contact tracing job positions are temporary—lasting for months or up to a year, with annual salaries ranging from $40,000 to $70,000. Those numbers are about on-par with the entry-level salaries of registered nurses, for a job that anyone completing a free, six-hour course can be hired for. Few, however, have questioned whether such pay is excessive or this use of taxpayer money prudent. It’s all been blindly okayed under the hallowed pretense of “public health”.

  With experts recommending that the country hire a total of 150,000 contact tracers, these programs may end up costing the states somewhere between $1 billion and $10.5 billion altogether. On top of that sum lie whatever additional costs the handful of states developing digital tracing apps incur. Worse, bills currently floating around the House and Senate would, if made law, establish a federally-led contact tracing program with a price tag as high as $100 billion. To government budget-breakers, that may just look like zeros and decimal places, but there’s a serious economic toll to be reckoned with. 

  Increased government spending is often accompanied by a rise in taxes, and almost always by an expansion of the money supply. In either case, people’s wealth is subsequently decreased. Individuals and their families must, accordingly, cut back on the amount of money they save, which in turn decreases the stock of loanable funds from the level that would have otherwise been available. As a result, the amount of investment in the economy falls, dulling the momentum of economic growth. That could severely dampen the economy’s post-recession recovery. 

  In our present crisis—unlike any before—many businesses were shut down for months not by economic circumstance, but by state decree. That contributed to the sharpest ever employment crisis in the US, with more than 20 million workers being cut from payrolls in April alone. Some of these cuts were temporary furloughs, but a part of that number reflects permanent job loss—either from companies being forced to slash operating costs or going bankrupt outright.

  Some of the proponents of the state’s contact tracing programs see themselves as killing two birds with one stone—helping to eliminate COVID, while also putting people back to work. Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) made this clear when stumping for the federal contact tracing bill she co-sponsored: “Our policies must meet the needs of the current moment, and that means getting creative about how we get people back to work”. 

  But government jobs programs don’t actually create employment in any way besides superficially. The reality is that they siphon labor away from potentially productive ventures at wages propped up at artificially high rates. This too will defer the economy’s recovery and must—for the good of private enterprise—be halted immediately. But by the looks of it, the program will continue forward uninterrupted, as it plays perfectly into the narrative that the state can solve all of society’s ills—no matter what the economics and epidemiology really say about it.

  Public Health Doublethink

  Much of how the public should respond to the virus hinges on the question of how common asymptomatic transmission of it is. Unfortunately, the research available on this is limited and contradictory, allowing cunning politicians to play both sides of the fence in order to get their way.

  Some early findings suggest that the virus undergoes considerable shedding in patients not showing symptoms, meaning that asymptomatic transmission is indeed common. Viewed through this narrow lens, it would seem that there’s cause to worry. However, the data suggesting the prevalence of asymptomatic transmission is ultimately rather paltry, and there’s evidence pointing to the contrary.

  WHO spokeswoman Maria van Kerkhove recently claimed that based on “a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,” asymptomatic transmission is “very rare”—directly contradicting what public health officials had long assumed about the virus. If the risk of contagion remains low until after symptoms appear, patients are far less likely to spread the virus to others. This notion too, though, is based on data that is, as of yet, incomplete, leaving the question of asymptomatic transmission unsolved and open to further inquiry. But whatever the underlying reality is, a significant problem must inevitably emerge for defenders of the government’s pandemic response efforts. 

  At the outset, governors imposed the lockdowns for fear that asymptomatic carriers were spreading the virus. Since anybody could unknowingly be infected and contagious, lockdowns were put in place as a proactive quarantine on the entire population. But according to Dr. Don Printz, a former research leader at the CDC, if there’s “shedding 2-5 days before any signs or symptoms, I would think [contact tracing] would be almost impossible”. Indeed, with an incubation period lasting between two and fourteen days, many patients would remain contagious for a long time without ever showing symptoms. New chains of transmission would easily emerge, generating exponential growth in the number of new cases. By the time contact tracers tried to map the probable path of transmission, the virus would have already spread to a number of other people—and on and on after that. 

  On the flip-side, if asymptomatic transmission is “very rare,” as van Kerkhove asserted, contact tracing may be a successful strategy. If only symptomatic patients are spreading the virus, though, the whole rationale for the lockdowns is then completely destroyed. For all the economic, political, social, and psychological damage the lockdowns caused, they would have yielded absolutely no public health benefit. It boils down to this: it’s either (1) that the lockdowns were effective or (2) that the contact tracing is effective, but politicians can’t have it both ways. 

  Still, the government’s big-spenders have pushed forward without delay. In fact, they’ve doubled down on their self-contradictions. The CDC, for instance, declared that “asymptomatic transmission enhances the need to scale up the capacity for … thorough contact tracing”. That is, of course, a repetition of the perennial call for more funding—oh, how our problems would disappear if only we spent more. Funneling more money towards programs that are inherently faulty won’t lead to better or more effective results, but to programs just as faulty, only with larger personnels.

  Trying to Trace COVID Probably Won’t Work Anyway

  Even casting aside politicians’ obvious public health duplicity, their contact tracing plans don’t stand up to scientific scrutiny. Whatever the case with asymptomatic transmission may be, COVID’s characteristics pose contact tracers unique and probably insurmountable challenges, leaving the US’ tracing “army” already besieged.

  The first problem is that catching COVID is not activity-specific, unlike other viruses like, say, HIV. Anyone in close proximity to a contagious COVID patient is at-risk for inhaling virus-ridden droplets that had been coughed, sneezed, or breathed out—it doesn’t matter where people are or what they’re doing. That suggests that the virus may often be transmitted between complete strangers, in which case contact tracing is rendered impossible, as tracing relies upon patients recalling their recent contacts. 

  This has only been exacerbated over the past month with the Black Lives Matter riots springing up across the country—a perfect storm for the virus’ spread. Research has shown activities like yelling, singing, and chanting to extend the distance that infectious droplets are spewed into the air. Not only does this lead to more new cases, but it also makes it much more difficult—even impossible—for tracers to figure out who passed the virus to whom.

  The second problem arises once symptoms begin to show. The way COVID manifests itself is multifarious, with some patients only exhibiting irregular symptoms not usually associated with the virus, like loss of smell, rash, and delirium. Many of its key symptoms—including dry cough, fever, and shortness of breath—are found in a variety of other illnesses, further muddying the waters. That leaves gaping holes in the health record and may lead to new, hard-to-trace outbreaks.

  Though meant to increase efficiency and efficacy, digital tracing apps are also riddled with significant problems. If the apps aren’t downloaded by enough residents, many may easily fall through the cracks and infect others. The apps only confer public health boons if they’re in common and widespread use. But today, nearly 20% of Americans still don’t own smartphones and a recent poll indicated that only half of those who do would consider downloading a tracing app. And that’s not even to mention the fact that people don’t always have their phones on their person, meaning that many interactions could take place untraced and under the radar.

  In focusing entirely on proximity, digital tracing continues to get it wrong. Indoor air flow poses a risk of spreading infectious droplets across rooms and throughout entire buildings—far beyond the six-foot proximity the apps look for. This summer, that risk may be augmented by AC ventilation. Then there’s also the risk of touching infected surfaces, which may harbor traces of the virus for hours or up to a few days. The apps simply can’t account for this sort of spread, chipping further away at their overall effectiveness.

  Moreover, there are some instances where people who are physically close together are extraordinarily unlikely to become infected, like in a supermarket checkout line, separated from the clerk by a plexiglass shield. Nonetheless, this would trigger an alert to be sent to people’s phones, warning them of possible COVID exposure with no further explanation—triggering a false alarm and probably a lot of worry and confusion. Divorcing the human factor from the process takes an undeniable toll on its reliability, when it was never that reliable in the first place.

  Why should anyone still have faith in the government when it’s made fatal stumbles at every step of the pandemic? Public health officials were unable to stop the first instances of community spread of COVID in late January and even remained in denial that the virus was spreading uncontrollably until the end of February. The notion that contact tracing is right now serving as a useful strategy in the US—with active cases hovering around 1 million—is preposterous.

  Officials may feign confidence in the decisions they make, but that’s fueled by pure optics, not science. Across all fifty states, these programs are on track to reroute billions of dollars and more than one hundred thousand workers away from otherwise valuable uses. And for what? All to spin our wheels and sink into a false sense of hope and security.

  

• Trump Never Briefed On Unvetted Russian Bounty Intel Because NSA "Strongly Dissented"  
  Trump Never Briefed On Unvetted Russian Bounty Intel Because NSA “Strongly Dissented”  
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 19:05

  On Tuesday, the same day that Joe Biden finally emerged to hold his first press conference in 89 days in order to lash out at what he called Trump’s “dereliction of duty” over the NY Times Russian bounties for Taliban militants to kill American troops in Afghanistan story, The Wall Street Journal issued this bombshell:

  The National Security Agency strongly dissented from other intelligence agencies’ assessment that Russia paid bounties for the killing of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, according to people familiar with the matter.

  The disclosure of the dissent by the NSA, which specializes in electronic eavesdropping, comes as the White House has played down the revelations, saying that the information wasn’t verified and that intelligence officials didn’t agree on it.

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  As we noted before, it appears a return this week to mainstream media’s prior years of near daily breathless Russiagate reporting, with “anonymous intelligence sources” issuing new leaks of unvetted raw intel to the press.

  The WSJ points out that it was primarily the NSA’s firm dissent that kept the Russian bounties allegation out of the president’s daily briefing — which both further confirms the White House’s denials of the initial Friday Times reporting, as well as contradicts the NYT “revelation” itself. 

  “Because of that [NSA dissent], President Trump was never personally briefed on the threat, the White House said, although a key lawmaker said the information apparently was included in written intelligence materials prepared for Mr. Trump,” WSJ underscores.

  No details were given as to precisely how the NSA differed in its assessment of the Russian bounty allegations. For those keeping score, this marks the third major formal distancing from the substance of the NYT reporting by US intelligence agencies and intel community leadership.

  Also recall this isn’t the first instance of significant NSA pushback concerning explosive charges aimed at Russia: 

  In 2016, the NSA also strongly dissented from the CIA’s — aka John Brennan’s — assessment that Russia meddled in the US election to elect Trump. https://t.co/TlNbjERp8D

  — Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) June 30, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  On Saturday Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said in a statement that he had “confirmed that neither the President nor the Vice President were ever briefed on any intelligence alleged by the New York Times in its reporting.” 

  CIA Director Gina Haspel also appeared to vindicate the White House’s assertion of lack of credible intelligence behind it in a Monday statement. Essentially the CIA director seemed to reference the danger of “cherry-picking” from lower level unvetted raw information.“When developing intelligence assessments, initial tactical reports often require additional collection and validation,” Haspel said.

  “Leaks compromise and disrupt the critical interagency work to collect, assess, and ascribe culpability,” she added, strongly suggesting that indeed there was not enough to go on concerning the Russian bounty allegations for it to rise to the level of the commander-in-chief. In actually this was further a CIA condemnation of the “anonymous” leakers out of which the whole narrative was spun. 

  

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• How Long Will Europeans Work For?
  How Long Will Europeans Work For?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 02:45

  Eurostat have released an interesting forecast about how long a person can expect to be active in the European labour market during his or her life.

  The data is measured in years and it’s based on someone who was 15-years-old in 2019. On average, Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that the expected duration of working life in the European Union was 35.2 years – 3.6 years longer than in 2000.

  In individual member states, it ranges from 32 years in Italy to 42 years in Sweden…

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The data also includes several countries outside the EU and their figures are diverse.

  In Turkey for example, a 15-year-old can expect a working life of 29.3 years. In Iceland, however, a 15-year-old can expect to work for far longer – 45.8 years in total. Elsewhere, the duration of work is estimated at 42.6 years in Switzerland and 39.8 years in Norway.

  

• London Spins Out Of Control As Met Police Abandon Streets
  London Spins Out Of Control As Met Police Abandon Streets
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Tue, 06/30/2020 – 02:00

  Authored by M.A.Richardson via TheDuran.com,

  “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

  – Winston Churchill

  Twenty-two police officers injured as Brixton party ends in violence

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  The US and Britain are at their most perilous point in one hundred years. Once stable democratic nation states made great through struggle and suffering to gain comparative freedom at huge sacrifice to their own population are throwing it all away.  The speed and ferocity of the attack is frightening, but this has been building for years, spreading from the 60s onwards through the university teaching  systems, unquestioned. It emerged into the public arena as political correctness as each generation of students became more radical. Then came the final push to silence opposition with wokism, virtue-signalling, identity politics, and now racial division, an aberration of democracy and freedom of speech.

  The Trump presidency has been under a continual coup, even before taking office.  Involvement from the top down of Obama and his administration and security services is an inconvenience for the Democrats, and many Republicans feel the same. What it does show, is that at this moment in the history of the United States, the deep state are above the law. We are waiting for Attorney General Barr to prove otherwise, but since he has already stated it is unlikely that Obama or Biden will be called to testify, he has issued a free pass, move along, nothing to see. All is swept aside on a media tide of attacks on democracy and the rule of law by the radical left, as BLM take control and politicians scamper down rabbit holes trying to avoid the buckshot.  Those who control the media control the narrative, never more true than it is today, as truth becomes fiction and fiction fact.

  History is no longer the ‘right’ history, facts are no longer facts but interpretations. Our language is corrupted by thought-speak and ‘wrong-thinking’. Intersectionality seeps through to the subconscious of the people as they are dissected, examined and re-assembled from parts into a whole, as independent thought lies discarded on the slab. The monster of BLM has screamed into the world, its children intent on destroying everything that will not acknowledge them, blind, unreasoning, malicious, merciless, they search for the meaning of their own existence and find nothing but their own image staring back from an iPhone.

  We are at the turning point. All opposition is being de-platformed, demonetised and silenced by the tyranny of the social media monopolies of Google, Facebook, Twitter, in the great lurch left to totalitarianism.

  Our language has been acquired, repossessed and annexed, a grand and despicable M&A, dismembered, rendered useless and sold off to the corporates and big tech.  They are laying off the workforce whom they consider obsolete and no longer useful for their purposes. The world has turned on its dark side, an unrecognisable corruption of reality.  Boris Johnson is presiding over a shift into anarchy. The Labour party cannot win through the ballot box, the BLM are useful to them. The radical left have co-opted and subjugated the old left, they are one and the same, because disorder and destruction are their only route to power, and they are taking it.

  As temperatures rise and unrest spreads, London is braced for another week of anarchy.  A combination of  Covid-19 restrictions, a hands-off police policy, and subsequent breakdown of law and order follows years of devolution of police enforcement powers to local authorities, and pushes London towards breakdown.  Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London, has announced funding cuts to an already undermanned and demoralised front line police force of £110 million over the next 2 years, #BLM defund the police. The country is undergoing a communist insurrection, a cultural marxist revolution indulged and endorsed by the elites. Far left racial divisionists and mainstream media incite violence, pushing the marxist agenda, whilst the rest of the population is so punch- drunk with the speed of the takeover, it does not even recognise that it is about to hit the canvas.

  THE TYRANNY OF BLM

  BLM is a marketing exercise by the three founders, all trained radical Marxists.  Alicia Garza, Opal Tometi, and Patrisse Cullors. The public have been played.  No sympathy there. If you put your name or your money to a cause, the least you can do is look it up and see what you are supporting and find out what is behind the hype. Follow the money.

  There is bet-hedging from ‘left-light’ political commentators who are afraid to declare the emperor has no clothes. They advocate that it is not BLM and the rise of cultural marxism that we should be worried about, but the rise of the far-right in reaction to it.  The far-right, or simply put, anyone who sees BLM for what they are, a cultural marxist totalitarian power-grab, are not the ones that require people to kneel before them, pull down and deface statues, injure police, the public and public property. BLM are the ones inciting riots through racial division, bullying small children,  calling to abolish the police, and end capitalism and the family. It is time to get off the bench and stop trying to play both sides of the field. It is cowardly and will end in your own demise as all is swept aside by the mob. Come the revolution, and it is coming, you want to know who will hold the line with you and who will run, so best to find out now.

  BULLY

  At a party in Harrow Road London this week, police were pelted with objects and prevented from entering the area by youths shouting “you’re not coming in”  The police released a statement:

  “Following engagement within the local community we are hopeful that crowds are dispersing.”

  A quick look on Google translate will tell you this means – ‘they threw stuff at us, so we left’

  The message is, don’t bother to call the council or the police, your neighbourhood is now run by youth mobs. The hardest hit by this lawlessness are in the poorest communities, in the council blocks, the housing association accommodation.  The gentrified can sell up and ship out with their kids, the same kids advocating and encouraging the cultural revolution and racial division that is destroying London. The same kids that will be the politicians of tomorrow.

  Local authorities have the power to issue ASBOs (Anti-Social Behaviour Orders) noise abatement orders, and to seize equipment, but in most instances do not have the manpower or the resources to do so. They are the front line community police for out of control raves and parties, and they are the ones that engage with the local community and youth offenders and understand what is happening on the ground.  Most no longer operate ‘out of hour services’ which is a nonsense, since that is exactly the time they are needed. All that can be done is for a complaint to be lodged after the fact. The police rarely engage with locals, instead they have a faceless, distant, centralised Met police call centre.

  Parliament have made mass gatherings and peaceful protests unlawful for the moment, but there is an exception.   Northumbria police issued this statement yesterday:

  “We’ll be in attendance to facilitate a planned Black Lives Matter vigil at Keel Square in #Sunderland tonight.  A Section 14 order is in place forbidding any other public assembly, including counter-protests, to ensure the public’s safety.” – Northumbria Police

  This was echoed yesterday in London as more subsets of BLM demonstrators were allowed into central London in a  Black Trans Lives Matter rally. Thousands of activists marched through central London in place of Pride celebrations that had been cancelled due to Covid-19 health fears. Banners of “White silence is violence” were held above the crowd, and a sign outside Parliament defaced, crossing out ‘Parliament’ and replacing it with “racists”. The law is no longer applied equally. Radical left marxists running BLM take over the centre of London each weekend and grow emboldened, realising the law does not apply to them.

  London 16 Jun 2020:

  “MPs have unanimously approved the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (Amendment) (No.3) Regulations 2020. This new law bans mass gatherings in London in a fight to stop the spread of the deadly virus”

  In Westminster, the government in their elite London bubble, seem unwilling to admit to the sense of unease amongst the public as law-abiding citizens are beginning to wonder if they even cares, They know that Sadiq Khan is intent on causing as much pain as he can to the population of London.  It is likely the police will abandon the streets if a serious riot breaks out.  Londoners see this as a real possibility, it has happened before.

  The last sustained rioting across London was sparked by the death of Mark Duggan in 2011. This saw disaffected youths vandalising property, looting, and assaulting people. Police were unable to respond to the speed of the rioting or to the numbers on the streets. The disorder spread to other parts of the UK and showed the power of social media to ignite and inflame tensions.  An astonishing 3,000 people were arrested and 1,000 criminal charges brought for various crimes related to the riots. It was anarchy.  There were 5 deaths and 16 injured as a direct result.

  These riots are still fresh in the mind due to their speed and ferocity and the opportunistic and senseless nature of the crimes committed.  The same atmosphere is building, this time based on the BLM righteous rage and racial division agenda. If the police cannot shut down a party, they cannot contain a riot.

  The BLM construct lights a fire under race relations, deliberately so. The law-abiding citizen is unprotected and demonised.  It is woke politics on steroids.

  “Developing and delivering training, police monitoring and strategies for the abolition of police.”    –  gofundmeUK BLM 

  BLM has seeped into all aspects of our lives, online, onto the streets and into the language. It is a very aggressive form of indoctrination and advertising, it is impossible to get away from on any media platform, television, radio, advertising and is being relentlessly pushed by corporates.  The premise is, if you are white you are a racist. BLM is controlling the news narrative.  The British and American public are under attack by a cult largely endorsed by their governments who, instead of defending the people that voted them into power, take the side of the mob.

  We are living through a transition to totalitarianism. The attacks are coming in waves, each wave growing in intensity, consuming and feeding off the last. They carry with them the worst disruptors of society of which there are many. They are active at demonstrations,  as trained jihadists infiltrate and disrupt alongside Antifa and BLM activists.

  In America, heavily armed populist militia groups are growing and forming a coalition with the police, preparing for the fight-back.  In the UK, there is no second amendment right to bear arms, so citizens are at the mercy of government policy.  The police and government are working against their own people, the only way to fight back is to move out and find relative safety, this is what is happening in London.

  Left wing councils all over the UK are forcing agreement to marxist agenda. This is a battle between the people vs the elite political class. There is deep suspicion of all that they represent, government, corporate, education, media, church, all seem designed to silence those they claim to represent and to further their own, centralised globalist ideology. BLM are just another branch of this elite. This is Groundhog Day, the same argument that was played out after the Brexit referendum, that democracy does not matter, this is just the next battle in a far more extreme, pervasive and corrupt form.

  This is a race war incited by woke identity politics, facilitated by middle class white malcontents and snowflakes, overindulged by their parents and allowed to continue tantrums far beyond their teens, encouraged and enabled by neoliberal university educators and group-think on social media. It is an assault on the soul of nations, aided by domestic terrorists with the blessing of big government. It is the opposite of the spirit of Brexit, the opposite of independent thought. It is against the rule of law, the constitution, it is the destruction of the West by a decadent and controlling elite completely out of touch with its own people.

  On television, white primary school kids are humiliated and confused as they are asked to explain their white privilege.  This is the ultimate endorsement of bullying by a political elite.  BLM have ignited a race war, it is being played out in schools, on the streets and in the political arena, we are being told we must ‘see colour’, to actively encourage division by colour. There is no room for discussion or debate with this hypersensitive Facebook generation who are incapable of having an opinion unless it is ‘liked’ by consensus. Racial profiling is being endorsed across all mainstream media platforms.

  Both Britain and America have governments that are weak and vulnerable, both countries are ripe for the taking. Shaun King could not have staged this uprising more skilfully, no doubt he has a strong hand in this and directs from his throne at Harvard Law School. Sadiq Khan and Cressida Dick do his bidding.

  Norman Brennan, Director of the Law and Order Foundation, on Talk Radio London said of the anarchy in Britain:

  “We are barely able to police everyday issues. We have lost 22,000 officers, 4,000 of them in the Met. Just look how that has depleted backing up their own colleagues dealing with any public disorders that we are beginning to see on our streets, almost daily now. It’s embarrassing, I feel for my colleagues. In thirty-one years of policing I can’ t recall a single time that I ran away from an incident. A). I knew I would be getting back-up and B). we had this sort of fearlessness amongst us that the criminal element were not allowed to run riot, they were not allowed to rule the streets. That’s our job, and we rule the streets on behalf of society. What the Commissioner does {Cressida Dick}, and she does it all the time, is to close it down, you can see her political stance.

  What public order incident that breaks out on the streets, most probably in London,  is going to ignite wide scale public disorder throughout Britain? It takes one. At this moment in time, it’s like a litmus paper. Which incident is going to light it?”

  BLM can only feel encouraged, just like a spoilt child testing how far they can go until the adult in the room says, no more.  The problem is, there are no adults in the room.

  Boris Johnson and Priti Patel are full of platitudes, but they do nothing. This is no longer a Conservative party that are strong on public order, this is a Conservative Party far left of Tony Blair.  A party out of touch with its core voters, so much so that all it can do is steal the ideas from another party to win an election, as it did from Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party in 2019.  It seems to think that to deliver on Brexit is enough, but this terrible unease that has come over the country is at boiling point, as the law-abiding citizen is chastised and knocked back into silence again and again.

  In London, you can feel the tension on the ground, simmering, mostly unsaid, but it is there. The elites in the London bubble don’t see this, and so it festers. They have no sense of place, only a sense of self.  For them it is an experiment in socialism, for the public it is a crisis. When a country has to take up arms to protect itself, will such a diversity of communities, such disparity in wealth, of ideas, of religions, be able to come together to defeat the enemy?  Will it even be able to identify who that enemy is when the government and their agencies, so contemptuous of the public, and yet so naive themselves, cannot.  That question will be answered soon.  The public will get no help, the elites have chosen to go to war against their own people. They have taken to a serpent to their bosom, an insidious viper that is sowing the seeds of racial unrest.  It is a construct by forces wishing to subvert and cause pain and to take power over those already weak and demoralised from Covid-19.  A woke, cultural revolution of media and government institutions against all that the British public hold dear.

  “I believe that the mainstream media in Britain are stoking and inciting people to be disorderly on the streets of Britain. It’s almost as though they would love it if there were wide-scale public disorder.” – Norman Brennan

  More than this, it is the aim of BLM, Antifa and the increasingly marxist socialist left, many of whom preside in Westminster, to cause exactly that.  The public are at this very moment being beaten into submission.

  Anyone who lives in London becomes streetwise very fast, and stories of citizens being marched to an ATM at knife point are common. These are not petty crimes.  In one of the largest local authorities in London run by a Labour council for many years, their crime enforcement team has been reduced to 4 for a population of approx 324,000. The need by government to reduce perceived crime has led to such madness. This hollows out the middle class who are moving away from London as they feel it is no longer a safe place to live or raise children. Judging from the battles in some of the most gentrified and highly-priced boroughs in London, they are right.

  Whilst most citizens are still under restrictions in ‘bubbles’ of social contact, others are totally immune to either enforcement or prosecution. Priti Patel talks tough but if she were serious, she would fire Cressida Dick. Alongside Sadiq Kahn, the marxist agitator who despises his own country, they are killing London, without law and order on the streets, and law and order applied equally, there is nothing. They are poisonous.

  This overtly racist tribalist drive to divide the cities is yet another realignment of the elites. Those outside the London bubble indoctrination zone are not buying into any of this and grow more sceptical by the day.  This is a choice. You chose civilisation, free speech, the constitution and the rule of law, you defend it vociferously, or you let it all crumble to dust and be taken over by the radical left, who will have power over you until death.

  

• Welcome To The New (Pathologized) Totalitarianism
  Welcome To The New (Pathologized) Totalitarianism
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 23:35

  Authored (satirically) by CJ Hopkins via ConsentFactory.org,

  It was always going to come to this… mobs of hysterical, hate-drunk brownshirts hunting down people not wearing masks and trying to get them fired from their jobs, “no mask, no service” signs outside stores, security staff stopping the mask-less from entering, paranoid pod people pointing and shrieking at the sight of mask-less shoppers in their midst, goon squads viciously attacking and arresting them …

  Welcome to the Brave New Normal.

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  And it isn’t just the Maskenpflicht-Sturmabteilung. The new official narrative is omnipresent. The corporate media are pumping out hysteria about “Covid-19 hospitalizations” (i.e., anyone admitted to a hospital for anything who tested positive for the coronavirus) and “major incidents” (i.e., people at the beach). Police are manning makeshift social-distancing-monitoring watchtowers in London. There are propaganda posters and billboards everywhere, repeating the same neo-Goebbelsian slogans, reinforcing the manufactured mass hysteria. Dissent and nonconformity are being pathologized, “diagnosed” as psychopathy and paranoia. Mandatory vaccinations are coming.

  You didn’t think they were kidding, did you, when they started introducing the Brave New Normal official narrative back in March? They told us, clearly, what was coming. They told us life was going to change … forever. They locked us down inside our homes. They ordered churches and synagogues closed. They ordered the police to abuse and arrest us if we violated their arbitrary orders. They closed the schools, parks, beaches, restaurants, cafés, theaters, clubs, anywhere that people gather. They ripped children out of their mother’s arms, beat and arrested other mothers for the crime of “wearing their masks improperly,” dragged mask-less passengers off of public buses, gratuitously beat and arrested people for not “social-distancing” on the sidewalk, shackled people with ankle monitors, and intimidated everyone with robots and drones. They outlawed protests, then hunted down people attending them and harassed them at their homes. They started tracking everyone’s contacts and movements. They drafted new “emergency” laws to allow them to forcibly quarantine people. They did this openly. They publicized it. It’s not like they were hiding anything.

  No, they told us exactly what was coming, and advised us to shut up and follow orders. Tragically, most people have done just that. In the space of four months, GloboCap has successfully imposed totalitarianism — pathologized totalitarianism — on societies all across the world. It isn’t traditional totalitarianism, with a dictator and a one-party system, and so on. It is subtler and more insidious than that. But it is totalitarianism nonetheless.

  GloboCap could not have achieved this without the approval (or at least the acquiescence) of the vast majority of the masses. The coronavirus mass hysteria was a masterstroke of propaganda, but propaganda isn’t everything. No one is really fooled by propaganda, or not for long, in any event. As Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari noted in the opening of Anti-Oedipus:

  “The masses were not innocent dupes. At a certain point, under a certain set of conditions, they wanted fascism, and it is this perversion of the desire of the masses that needs to be accounted for.”

  I am not going to try to account for the “perversion of the desire of the masses” here in this essay, but I do want to dig into the new pathologized totalitarianism a little bit.

  Now, I’m going to assume that you understand that the official “apocalyptic pandemic” narrative is predicated on propaganda, wild speculation, and mass hysteria, and that by now you are aware that we are dealing with a virus that causes mild to moderate symptoms (or absolutely no symptoms at all) in 95% of those infected, and that over 99.5% survive … thus, clearly, no cause for widespread panic or justification for the totalitarian “emergency measures” that have been imposed.

  I am also going to assume that you watched as GloboCap switched off the “deadly pandemic” to accommodate the BLM protests, then switched it back on as soon as they subsided, and that you noted how their propaganda shifted to “cases” when the death count finally became a little too embarrassing to continue to hype.

  So, I won’t waste your time debunking the hysteria. Let’s talk pathologized totalitarianism.

  The genius of pathologized totalitarianism is like that old joke about the Devil … his greatest trick was convincing us that he doesn’t exist. Pathologized totalitarianism appears to emanate from nowhere, and everywhere, simultaneously; thus, technically, it does not exist. It cannot exist, because no one is responsible for it, because everyone is. Mass hysteria is its lifeblood. It feeds on existential fear. “Science” is its rallying cry. Not actual science, not provable facts, but “Science” as a kind of deity whose Name is invoked to silence heretics, or to ease the discomfort of the cognitive dissonance that results from desperately trying to believe the absurdities of the official narrative.

  The other genius of it (from a GloboCap viewpoint) is that it is inexhaustible, endlessly recyclable. Unlike other official enemies, the “deadly virus” could be any virus, any pathogen whatsoever. All they have to do from now on is “discover” some “novel” micro-organism that is highly contagious (or that mimics some other micro-organism that we already have), and wave it in front of people’s faces. Then they can crank up the Fear Machine, and start projecting hundreds of millions of deaths if everyone doesn’t do exactly as they’re told. They can run this schtick … well, pretty much forever, anytime the working classes get restless, or an unauthorized president gets elected, or just for the sheer sadistic fun of it.

  Look, I don’t mean to be depressing, but seriously, spend an hour on the Internet, or talk to one of your hysterical friends that wants to make mask-wearing mandatory, permanently. This is the mentality of the Brave New Normal … irrationally paranoid and authoritarian. So, no, the future isn’t looking very bright for anyone not prepared to behave as if the world were one big infectious disease ward.

  I’ve interacted with a number of extremely paranoid corona-totalitarians recently (just as a kind of social experiment). They behave exactly like members of a cult. When challenged with facts and basic logic, first, they flood you with media propaganda and hysterical speculation from “medical experts.” Then, after you debunk that nonsense, they attempt to emotionally manipulate you by sharing their heartbreaking personal accounts of the people their therapists’ brother-in-laws’ doctors had to helplessly watch as they “died in agony” when their lungs and hearts mysteriously exploded. Then, after you don’t bite down on that, they start hysterically shrieking paranoia at you (“JUST WAIT UNTIL THEY INTUBATE YOU!” … “KEEP YOUR SPITTLE AWAY FROM ME!”) and barking orders and slogans at you (“JUST WEAR THE GODDAMN MASK, YOU BABY!” … “NO SHOES, NO SHIRT, NO MASK, NO SERVICE!”)

  Which … OK, that would be kind of funny (or terribly sad), if these paranoid people were not just mouthpieces echoing the voice of the official power (i.e., GloboCap) that is transforming what is left of society into a paranoid, pathologized, totalitarian nightmare right before our eyes. They’re kind of like the “woman in red” in The Matrix. When you are talking to them, you’re not talking to them. You’re talking to the agents. You’re talking to the machines. Try it sometime. You’ll see what I mean. It’s like talking to a single algorithm that is running in millions of people’s brains.

  I can’t lie to you. I’m not very hopeful. No one who understands the attraction (i.e., the seduction) of totalitarianism is. Much as we may not like to admit it, it is exhilarating, and liberating, being part of the mob, surrendering the burden of personal autonomy and individual responsibility, fusing with a fanatical “movement” that is ushering in a new “reality” backed by the sheer brute force of the state … or the transnational global capitalist empire.

  It is irresistible, that attraction, to most of us. The chance to be a part of something like that, and to unleash one’s hatred on those who refuse to go along with the new religion … to publicly ridicule them, to humiliate them, to segregate them from normal society, to hunt them down and get them fired from their jobs, to cheer as police abuse and arrest them, to diagnose them as “abnormal” and “inferior,” these social deviants, these subhuman “others,” who dare to challenge the authority of the Party, or the Church, or the State, or the Reich, or Science.

  Plus, in the eyes of GloboCap (and its millions of fanatical, slogan-chanting followers), such non-mask-wearing deviants are dangerous. They are like a disease … an infestation. A sickness in the social body. If they refuse to conform, they will have to be dealt with, quarantined, or something like that.

  Or they can just surrender to the Brave New Normal, and stop acting like babies, and wear a goddamn mask.

  After all, it’s just a harmless piece of cloth…

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• It's 2020 & Homosexuality Is Still Punishable By Death In These 10 Countries
  It’s 2020 & Homosexuality Is Still Punishable By Death In These 10 Countries
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 23:15

  51 years on from the Stonewall Riots, global celebrations to remember the event that kickstarted the gay rights revolution have been curtailed due to the coronavirus. The first pride parade occurred a year later and on the 50th anniversary of that occasion, it is thought that the only such march will occur in Taiwan where Covid-19 has largely been contained.

  Globally, a lot has been achieved in the fight for gay rights in recent years but as Statista’s Niall McCarthy shows in the following map, there is a lot more work to do.

  According to ILGA, an international federation campaigning for LGBT rights, homosexuality is punishable by up to eight years in prison in 31 countries and 10 years to life in prison in another 10 countries.

  The following infograpic was made with EQUALDEX data and it shows where homosexuality remains illegal.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Gabon is the latest country to decriminalize homosexuality after introducing laws against gay sex last year. On June 23, lawmakers in the country’s lower house of parliament voted to revise that law which stipulated that having homosexual relations was considered “an offence against morality”, punishable by up to six months in prison and a fine of five million CFA francs or $8,600.

  In 2020, homosexuality is still punishable by death in several countries and it remains illegal in at least 71 others.

  The following infographic shows the countries where the death penalty is used against homosexual activity and it also uses another group, Equaldex, as a source. It is important to note that it is used on a regional basis in parts of Nigeria and Somalia where sharia law has been adopted. Notably, it is also used in Qatar (only applying to Muslims) which will host the FIFA World Cup in 2022.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Last year, Brunei recently provoked international outrage when it introduced strict Islamic laws that made homosexual activitly punishable by stoning to death.

  

• On Not Going Towards The Trouble: Staying Safe During Civil Unrest In America
  On Not Going Towards The Trouble: Staying Safe During Civil Unrest In America
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 22:55

  Authored by Samantha Biggers via BackdoorSurvival.com,

  No matter what you have to say about the current situation, the one phrase that I think a lot of us can agree on is that we are living in interesting times. Our computers and phones live stream these interesting times to us 24/7. This post is going to concentrate on tips for the average person that wants to avoid taking part in civil unrest or protests. It seems pretty clear that most people would rather not participate regardless of how the news portrays it.

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  There are some that say that if someone doesn’t take a stand then that means things are not going to improve. While that may be true I ask you to consider how dedicated you are to a cause before you take action. As we will discuss later in this post, it can be hard to stop violence if you find yourself in an escalating situation.

  While you may have strong opinions one way or another, there is a difference between that and being “all in”. Unless you are very dedicated then the consequences and risks are probably not worth going towards potential trouble.

  Curiosity is natural but it can also be dangerous.

  Restrictions that were put in place due to COVID-19 are being eased or ignored. Obviously there is some risk of contracting any number of illnesses from being in crowds of people, especially those that are shouting and touching one another a lot.

  While it may be tempting to try to go observe peacefully the events that are occurring in your area, you need to consider just how worth it is really to you. Sure there is nothing like seeing something with your own two eyes but the cost of that could be great.

  Those of you that have kids and teens that are old enough to be going places on their own or hanging out at friends, or that are being left home alone need to talk seriously about the dangers of going towards potential trouble or ongoing trouble and unrest.

  Avoid peer pressure. I am talking about adults and younger people too.

  Getting caught up in the energy and group of a crowd is easy to do. I have heard of these types of incidents in my own area. Somebody gets an idea and suddenly 10 people or more are getting themselves into a situation that is not at all what they anticipated. Emotions are high and it is easy for people on both sides of any issue or argument to see too far into something and make some assumptions that can lead to a major escalation in little time at all.

  Just because everyone else seems to be doing something doesn’t mean it is a great idea. Even if you really like a group of people, it is important to think for yourself and consider your well being and that of your family.

  That being said…..

  Watch out for family trying to talk you into things. Carefully consider any ideas, favors, or anything that they may ask of you during these trying times.

  Family is important but a lot of people have an up and down type of relationship with more than one member. While it is important to band together and try to help one another at times, one must think carefully about these actions. Who doesn’t have someone in their family that loves drama? I bet most of us can name quite a few. You also need to think about if it is worth it to ask for help from someone or invite them to be a part of your life. Sometimes people expect far more in return than is fair or that you can give even if you want to.

  Plenty of families have people in them that are suffering from addiction and substance abuse. Even during good times, it can be challenging to help someone in this position even if they want to be helped. Do you have the resources and determination to deal with the potential trouble of substance abuse and addiction? Has the person made any indication that they are going to meet you halfway? Can they contribute at all to the household?

  Families can be very divided when it comes to politics and moral opinions. It can be very hard to overcome these barriers and help each other out. If you couldn’t hang out or talk before all the unrest and the pandemic, I am not going to say that there is a good chance you can now. I wish it were different but as stressed as the average person is, dealing with long standing issues may be too hard or even impossible without causing both parties a lot of grief and trouble.

  Avoid talking about potentially volatile subjects. I have found that plenty of people find it refreshing to not “go there”.

  A lot of people are simply tired of constantly talking about the state of the world and would love to have a conversation about other things. We all know that some subjects get people really worked up and that it can vary by the person. Don’t bring up subjects you know are going to be upsetting and not do anyone involved any good. This is generally a good habit to be in nowadays because what you say can and will be used against you if you run your mouth in front of the right person. It happens all the time regardless of your personal beliefs and opinions.

  It is just the times we live in.

  I wish I had a magical way to make it different but I am afraid there are a lot of very deeply rooted issues that are going to have to be dealt with before we get back to having a society where people can talk freely and change their opinion later without it getting thrown in their face a month or a decade later. People change and grow and unfortunately, even when they change for the better, even minor or moderate comments that are offensive can be brought up and used for their ruination socially and at work.

  At 37, I am thankful that every dumb or ill informed thing I said as a kid and teen was not recorded in some way.

  Do not give out too much information online or in person.

  I write for a living. It is my job to talk about preparedness and survival skills and try to give advice that can apply to a whole spectrum of situations and people. Part of that job means giving up some of my privacy. I get paid to write though and I don’t dish out everything even though I get that paycheck for talking about some things.

  The people I see on social media or Youtube channels that take pics and tell everyone basically every firearm or prep they have as well as their various opinions on a ton of volatile subjects baffle me, especially since only a tiny percentage are making any kind of money off of these revelations. Stop acting like you want to impress others and get attention. This is far different than trying to impress the popular kids. You could be putting yourself and your family in grave danger.

  We live in a world where too many people want to be famous or a celebrity. People sometimes think it is weird when you don’t. Wanting to be famous or go viral can lead to dumb decisions that endanger you and those you love.

  One thing I have noticed about a lot of the events that have happened is how many people are trying to film or get that shot or video that will go viral. Instagram “Influencers” are going out to events that hold a lot of potential for violence just to get a little boost in their popularity. Since so many have gotten called out for this behavior, they are at even more risk for ridicule and targeting even by those that they have the same opinions of.

  I have to say that trying to get videos when people are pushing and shoving you seems like a terrible idea. Once it comes to that, having a phone in your hand rather than getting out of harm’s way or defending yourself, seems like a big risk to get that shot that chances are you are not going to get much for in terms of fame or monetary value, especially with so many others shooting the same scene.

  You know how many times I have turned down prepper reality shows, interviews, offers to host prepper shows on TV, etc? More times than I can count on my fingers. Some of these same places keep hassling me even after I turn them down. I sometimes even forget to tell my husband when I get another one. They don’t seem to get it that I don’t want the trouble because there is no doubt in my mind that with that type of fame often comes hassle and trouble that is not worth the amount of money one might get in return. Very few people become high paying stars in their field.

  Remember that no matter who you are or your opinions, it is easy to justify terrible acts if one feels they are morally superior or if someone convinces themselves that an act is for the greater good.

  Moral justification is a powerful thing and incredibly dangerous. When you get right down to it, basically anything from treating someone poorly to outright atrocity and brutal violence can feel justified by someone if they feel it benefits the majority or that they are morally superior in some way. Remember that no matter who you are and where you live, there is someone out there that feels “above you” or better in some way. Most of the time it doesn’t really matter and everyone can just ignore each other for the most part but when emotions are high and things are in turmoil, this is a fact that you need to be very aware of.

  Violence is easy to start and hard or even impossible to stop until it simply cannot go on any longer.

  Going into an area purposefully where there is civil unrest increases your chances of experiencing violence. It only takes a small catalyst for an otherwise peaceful protest to turn into something awful that results in a lot of people injured or worse. Remember when a car backfiring caused a stampede of people in Times Square? A single fistfight at an event is sometimes all it takes to turn the tide and cause a snowball of violence.

  You may not be able to talk someone out of committing violence.

  I have been watching some videos online. Who hasn’t? One thing I have noticed is that there are plenty of people that have made efforts to talk others out of escalating situations and committing violence. Sometimes they are successful and sometimes they are not. These same people are actually putting themselves between others to try to prevent violence as well.

  When it comes to friends and family, you may not be able to talk them out of going towards trouble and committing violent acts. They may not be planning violence outright but deep down they might be thinking about what they are going to do if things go a certain way. Emotions are high and a lot of people consider what is going on not just unrest but a revolution.

  No matter where you stand on any major issue there are people that will try to trigger you and use your reaction against you.

  One must be very careful about triggering. Plenty of people have been publicly shamed and humiliated after being manipulated into some type of reaction. Agitators can be extremely persistent. I also think it is worth mentioning that video is easy to edit. The right snippet can portray a very different scenario than what actually happened. Cutting and splicing audio is well within the skill set of most people if they want to do it.

  Will an outburst do any good? You need to ask yourself this and think before you react. I have seen way too many videos here lately showing people taunting and trying to get someone to hit them on film. This is not good behavior no matter how strongly you feel. I completely support someone defending themselves from harm but trying to get someone to hit you merely because you disagree on something doesn’t solve anything at all.

  Do not openly brandish firearms in public places unless your life is truly in danger and you must defend it.

  There is a difference between a gun strapped to your belt and having one in hand that you wave about in an unsafe manner. Pointing a gun at someone will get you arrested. Even if there are open carry laws in your state, you can’t go waving them around at protests. Even if technically the protest is not sanctioned and the legalities get hazy, chances are you are going to bring a lot of trouble on yourself. Also just because you have a firearm doesn’t mean that a crowd can’t harm you.

  I love having guns but one has to be careful about the amount of confidence they give some people to act in a more brash way. A gun is a defense tool and a darn good one but don’t make the mistake that it makes you untouchable in a crowd.

  I think the advice I have been given since a child is good. Don’t point a gun at someone unless you are really serious about using it. Otherwise, keep it down and your finger not right on the trigger.

  Other Tips and Bits of Advice

  • Plan your shopping and work commutes around areas of potential unrest.

  • Have a get home bag in your vehicle.

  • Consider what you can use for a weapon. A lot of everyday objects can be utilized if necessary. For some options check out my article on improvised weapons.

  • You should carry a weapon or something for self-defense on you at all times. There are many options including pepper spray, tasers, and keychain weapons. A knife is an excellent choice, especially if you cannot carry a gun.

  • Keep a decent medical kit in your car or get home bag.

  • Try to keep the kids and the elderly at home. Sorry, but times like these may mean that you have to move fast. Also keep in mind that if you are worried about kids and elderly family members during civil unrest, it can lead to different decisions that don’t turn out good for anyone. Would you leave someone old behind to get trampled to save yourself? Of course not.

  • Avoid being out in the evening or at night. Consider what you can do to make it easier and not so boring for teens that are having to stay at home more. For more in-depth advice on moving around during times of unrest, check out my previous article.

  • Talk honestly with your family about safety measures and avoiding trouble. Explain the risks and consequences.

  • Be prepared to answer some tough questions and offer a lot of advice to kids and teens. This is a very trying time to grow up in and a lot of them don’t know how to deal with all the emotions and propaganda that is being thrown at them.

   

  

• Richest Liberal Arts School In US Slashes Tuition By 15%, Cancels Athletics Program
  Richest Liberal Arts School In US Slashes Tuition By 15%, Cancels Athletics Program
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 22:35

  The richest liberal arts university in the country, Williams College, has slashed tuition by 15% “in recognition of the extraordinary circumstances and of this academic year and the uncertainty we face in the year ahead,” according to Bloomberg.

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  Williams, which has a $2.9 billion endowment (as of June, 2019) will also be canceling sports competitions and travel for the season according to a Monday statement.

  For the 2020-2021 academic year, Tuition, room and board will set back rich parents and lending institutions $63,200. Of note, four years at the university will set one back more than the average mortgage balance carried by millennials.

  “This reduction recognizes the fact that the pandemic and associated challenges are requiring us to cancel winter study as well as fall athletics competition and many student activities, among other opportunities that we usually encourage families to expect as part of their student’s education,” said school President Maud Mandel.

  Schools across the U.S. are coping with uncertainty for the year that begins in August or September as it’s largely unclear whether in-person courses will be offered given the rise in Covid-19 cases. Students at dozens of schools have already balked at the full price for last semester’s tuition with months of online classes, suing for billions of dollars in refunds. –Bloomberg

  “In higher education, we’re trained to believe that expensive is good,” says Seton Hall University associate professor Robert Kelchen. “Now, in this economic crisis, families are more price-sensitive than they have been.”

  Other colleges have made similar moves – including Davidson College in North Carolina, which announced in April that families would be allowed to postpone payments until August of 2021, and the College of William & Mary, which announced last month that incoming in-state undergraduates would no longer be subject to a tuition increase.

  

• Luongo: Is John Bolton A 'Resistance' Hero Or Traitor To Common Decency?
  Luongo: Is John Bolton A ‘Resistance’ Hero Or Traitor To Common Decency?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 22:15

  Authored by Tom Luongo via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  There are few men in modern American history more venal than Former National Security Adviser John Bolton. Calling Bolton a relic of the Cold War in his outlook on foreign policy is a kindness.

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  Bolton is a dangerous and pathetic creature whose entire life is an example of how incomplete men with a talent for violence can rise in a late-stage cesspit of political corruption.

  He is simply someone who has never been in a fight in his life who lusts for the power to kill, main and destroy anyone who dares challenge him. A pathology he’s had the dubious distinction of being able to act out in the real world on more than one occasion.

  This will, hopefully, be the last article I write about his cretin because once his last fifteen minutes of fame are used up attacking President Trump in slavish interview after interview supporting his book, Bolton will be finished in Washington D.C.

  This book is his gold watch for being a lifelong soldier in the service of the American empire and the neoconservative/neoliberal dream of global conquest. $2 million, a handful of residuals and a final victory lap for a life spent in pursuit of the subjugation of those he considers sub-human.

  President Trump’s recent tweet about Bolton is a masterful bit of brevity being the soul of wit.

  I gave John Bolton, who was incapable of being Senate confirmed because he was considered a wacko, and was not liked, a chance. I always like hearing differing points of view. He turned out to be grossly incompetent, and a liar. See judge’s opinion. CLASSIFIED INFORMATION!!!

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 22, 2020

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  And while Bolton spent the balance of his career in D.C. working nominally for Republicans, his lust for war served both parties equally well. That war lust was in service of the empire itself when Bolton was fired, and he turned against President Trump.

  He was welcomed as a Hero of the Resistance by Democrats intent on impeaching the President after he was fired last year, one of the few good moments in Trump’s nearly four years at the helm of U.S. foreign policy. Given his involvement with Fiona Hill and Eric Chiaramella, the whistleblower whose testimony created the impeachment charges, Bolton really could be thought of as the architect of that process.

  So, it’s no surprise that his book is welcomed as the gossip event of the summer by the media. But remember, this is a guy who refused to testify against Trump for Jerry Nadler and Adam Schiff and that’s because he would have never stood up to cross-examination.

  This is because, ultimately, John Bolton is a coward. And he’s the worst kind of coward. He’s the kind of man who deals underhandedly while hiding behind rhetoric in controlled environments to pursue his fever dreams of suppressing the Untermensch.

  What we know now, thanks to Bolton’s unwillingness to keep his trap shut, is that things were as we suspected while he was in the White House. Every event that occurred was an excuse for Bolton to tell Trump to go to war. And every time Trump was led up to that trough to drink, he backed away causing Bolton’s mustache the worst case of sexual frustration.

  Worse than that, Bolton sabotaged any hope of détente with Russia, North Korea and improving the situation in the Middle East. While he was right to hate Jared Kushner’s Deal of the Century for Israel/Palestine, he was instrumental in getting Trump to stay in Syria rather than turn over what’s left of its suppression to the people who actually want it to continue – Israel and Saudi Arabia.

  In the end Bolton is really the best example I can come up with for the monolithic thinking that permeates D.C. Despite his best instincts, Trump took Bolton on because the potential talent pool is so thin.

  Anyone with original ideas, such as Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, are more valuable in their current position rather than coming into an administration that is hamstrung by a permanent bureaucracy unwilling to change, or in open revolt.

  There’s no profit for them to make the jump even if they wanted to.

  This point has been in effect since before Trump took office when he wouldn’t stand behind his first National Security Adviser, Michael Flynn, who is still embroiled in the worst The Swamp can throw at a person.

  Progressives, liberals and anti-imperalists I implore you to stop allying with this creature of The Swamp in his quest to do damage to a president you hate. Because by doing so you are strengthening the very people who are the architects of the empire you believe you are fighting against.

  Because that’s who John Bolton wrote this book for.

  He didn’t write it for you.

  Bolton will ultimately be a foot note in the history books. A man whose only claim to fame was failing to allow a president to make some peace with North Korea and set the U.S. on a path to complete alienation with the rest of the world.

  Because of the neoconservatives’ intense war lust, as embodied by Bolton, it pushed Trump, already an arch-mercantilist, even farther along the path of using economic pressure to force change on the world stage.

  But, as I’ve been saying for years now, that is a strategy just as ruinous in the long run for the U.S. as Bolton’s cowardice urging use of a military — which he refused to serve in — to do his dirty work for him.

  These are both expressions of an empire which refuses to accept that it is in decline. And it has invited the chaos now evident in cities all across the U.S. as our wealth has been squandered on endless wars for regime change overseas while building a regulatory police state at home.

  That helped pushed the militarization of our local police, further putting them in conflict with a domestic population growing more desperate and reactionary on both sides of the political aisle.

  Bolton’s projection of all the U.S.’s ills onto countries with no real ability to harm us physically ultimately was not only his undoing with Trump but the U.S.’s undoing as a leader of the post-WWII order.

  

• India Deploys 'Quick Reaction' Anti-Air Missiles To Border While China Warns Of "Prolonged Standoff"
  India Deploys ‘Quick Reaction’ Anti-Air Missiles To Border While China Warns Of “Prolonged Standoff”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 21:55

  The India-China row in the disputed Ladakh border region isn’t over, despite military leaders on both sides last week announcing a cooling and deescalation after the June 15 Galwan Valley clash which left 20 Indian troops dead and an untold number of PLA casualties. 

  Both sides continue military build-up in the area, despite delegations planning to meet for a third time on Tuesday to attempt a diplomatic way forward and reestablish escalation avoidance mechanisms. 

  China reportedly has tank and heavy artillery units there, based on satellite images which grabbed headlines days ago, while by the weekend India reportedly deployed quick reaction surface-to-air missile defense systems known as the Akash anti-air system into the northern Himalayan region. 

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  “As part of the ongoing build-up in the sector, the air defense systems of both Indian Army and the Indian Air Force have been deployed in the sector to prevent any misadventure by the Chinese Air Force fighter jets or the People’s Liberation Army choppers there,” a government official told Indian media.

  This also after Beijing was enraged at the Indian military a week ago authorizing its troops to not only use fire arms along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), but to exercise “freedom of action” in responding to any engagement by PLA soldiers. 

  India’s military has been saying the “extraordinary circumstances” warrant it. “There is no change in the rules as such. Our side will only react to provocations and in case of extraordinary circumstances,” former Indian director-general of military operations, Lt. Gen. Vinod Bhatia, said.

  Meanwhile, the Chinese military’s media mouthpiece, state-run Global Times, has continued with its posturing and threats:

  If #India wants to take advantage of US support in border dispute with #China, it is terribly mistaken, as the Chinese PLA is fully prepared & capable of defending on multiple fronts including China-India border, South China Sea and Taiwan Straits:analysts.https://t.co/CFm8g4ceqg pic.twitter.com/nTBJ22jgQM

  — Global Times (@globaltimesnews) June 28, 2020

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  The English-language daily described “a prolonged standoff” while warning the PLA was prepared for any provocation, including with tanks and fighter jets. 

  “As senior Indian military officers are expecting a prolonged standoff in the China-India border region with the US reportedly voicing support for India, the Chinese military is demonstrating high military readiness on all fronts, as the intensive, simultaneous military exercises in the South China Sea, near Taiwan island and near the China-India border show India’s wishful thinking of taking advantage of US support is merely an illusion, Chinese analysts said Sunday,” GT reported. 

  

• Social Credit Scores Are Already Here
  Social Credit Scores Are Already Here
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 21:35

  Authored by Derrick Broze via The Last American Vagabond,

  People around the world are already being judged and denied access to financial services because of their social media data – and they don’t even realize it.

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  By now many of our readers are aware of the ongoing rollout of a nationwide social credit system in China. Starting in 2009, the Chinese government began testing a national reputation system based on a citizen’s economic and social reputation, or “social credit.” This social credit score can be used to reward or punish certain behaviors. The idea is that the state can give or takeaway points from a social credit score in order to engineer good behavior from the people.

  By late 2019, Chinese citizens were losing points on their score for dishonest and fraudulent financial behavior, playing loud music, eating on public transportation, jaywalking, running red lights, failing to appear at doctor appointments, missing job interviews or hotel reservations without canceling, and incorrectly sorting waste. To raise one’s social credit score a Chinese citizen can donate blood, donate to an approved charity, volunteer for community service, and other activities approved by the government. The Chinese government has begun to deny millions of people the ability to purchase plane and high-speed rail tickets due to low social credit scores and being labeled “untrustworthy.”

  While most people are likely familiar with this concept because of the popular show Black Mirror, the truth is this practice is much more reality than fiction. According to a new report from cybersecurity experts Kaspersky, 32 percent of adults between 25 to 34 have had issues getting a mortgage or loan due to their social media activity. The denial of loans comes as part of “social scoring systems” which are being used at an alarming rate by government and businesses to determine customers or citizens “trustworthiness.”

  “Based on these scores, systems make decisions for us or about us, from travel destinations and the associated costs, to whether we are allowed to access the service itself,” the report states.

  Kaspersky surveyed more than 10,000 people from 21 countries and found that 18 percent of those polled had issues accessing financial services because of assessments of their social media data. The report notes that more than 4.5 billion people use the internet around the world, and 3.8 billion have social media accounts. These accounts provide governments and companies with thousands of data points to score people. Less than half of those surveyed said they have heard of social scoring or social credit. As few as 13 percent of those polled in Austria and Germany said they were familiar with the concepts, while 71 percent in China were familiar.

  Unfortunately, the survey also found that 67 percent of people are willing to share their profiles to secure online shopping discounts and 52 percent are willing if it means skipping lines at airports and other means of travel. Finally, 51 percent of people said they are fine with government monitoring their social media behavior if it means keeping the public safe. The post-9/11 indoctrination appears to have worked to an astounding degree.

  Kaspersky warned that the public has little protections when it comes to their social media data, stating, “there is no framework we are publicly aware of when it comes to other systems used by organizations and governments to collect our data.” Further, the report states that consumers “can find it impossible to find out what their scores are, how these scores are being calculated and how they can be corrected if there are inaccuracies.”

  Chengyi Lin, a professor of strategy at the INSEAD business school, told EuroNews she believes, “you’re gonna have a holistic view of your behaviours, both financial and digital, and even physical, to give you a single credit score.”

  Lin’s comments point to an ever-increasing centralization of data and the push towards a single score by which governments will rate their populations. When combined with facial recognition, biometrics at the airports, CCTV cameras, drones and surveillance planes flying above major cities — it is clear that the Technocratic State is coming into full view.

  Clearly, the majority of people are completely in the dark about these programs and their dangerous implications. Therefore, the goal for those “in the know” should be to spread the word and warn as many people as possible. We must also take personal responsibility for the amount of data we voluntarily share with social media sites, apps, and the internet in general. The only defense against the complete erosion of privacy — and thus liberty — is an educated public who stands up for their own rights.

  For more information on removing your data from these data collection and aggregation sites, see this.

  

• China Manufacturing Employment Contracts, Demand Disappoints Despite Headline PMIs Beat
  China Manufacturing Employment Contracts, Demand Disappoints Despite Headline PMIs Beat
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 21:25

  In a sign that China’s massive stimulus injections as the nation reopens are working, tonight’s PMIs both rose from May and beat expectations.

  • The government’s official Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.6 to 50.9 (beating expectations of 50.5)

  • The government’s official Services PMI rose from 53.6 to 54.4 (beating expectations of 53.6)

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  However, as Bloomberg report, while parts of the economy have recovered from the virus shutdowns, there’s an apparent divergence between demand and supply – factories and companies have returned and output is growing again, but exports and domestic retail sales are shrinking (and manufacturing employment fell back into contraction at 49.1).

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  “While work restart levels are high, the recovery of demand has been slow, weighing on the pace of improvement in industrial production,” Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank Co in Shanghai, wrote in a report this week.

  Additionally, a separate PMI indicator that gauges China’s high-tech industries slowed significantly this month. The Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers’ index fell to 51.4 this month from 55.9 in May, according to the bank, citing a research firm connected to the Federation of Logistics & Purchasing that compiled the data.

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  “The new export orders sub-index remained low at 32.6 in June, unchanged from May and April, suggesting sustained headwinds from overseas markets,” Nomura economists led by Lu Ting wrote in a report.

  The surge in exports of coronavirus-related medical supplies is largely due to price rises, which is “likely unsustainable,” they wrote.

  “We expect a bumpy recovery path filled with uncertainty, as China is caught between domestic policy stimulus, remaining social distancing rules and slumping external demand,” according to the report.

  One possible caveat for the lack of momentum is that severe flooding in southern China may also have slowed the pace of production in some areas, and a recent flare-up of the coronavirus has also hit confidence.

  

• Airbnb CEO: "Travel Will Never, Ever Go Back To The Way It Was Pre-COVID"
  Airbnb CEO: “Travel Will Never, Ever Go Back To The Way It Was Pre-COVID”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 21:15

  Airbnb CEO and co-founder Brian Chesky said the global travel and tourism industry might never fully recover from the virus-induced economic downturn, though he tells Axios in a Zoom interview, there’s a glimmer of hope as travel trends will shift more domestically, and to smaller communities in a post-corona world. 

  “I will go on the record to say that travel will never, ever go back to the way it was pre-COVID; it just won’t,” Chesky said. “There are sometimes months when decades of transformation happen.”

  He said, “people are getting on airplanes, they’re not crossing borders, they’re not meaningfully traveling to cities, they’re not traveling for business.”  

  Instead, “they’re getting in cars. They’re traveling to communities that are 200 miles away or less. These are usually very small communities. They’re staying in homes and they’re staying longer.”

  Readers may recall, we noted in late March how city dwellers in Southern California were fleeing metro areas for rentals on the outskirts of Joshua Tree National Park, which was a move to isolate oneself from the virus pandemic. 

  “As the pandemic sweeps across California’s largest cities, residents are fleeing their urban settings to isolated communities in the Mojave Desert or the rugged Sierra Nevada. The hope is that a remote area can reduce their transmission risk.”

  “People will, one day, get back on planes,” Chesky said. “But one of the things that I do think is a fairly permanent shift is … a redistribution of where travelers go.”

  “You know, everyone goes to Rome, Paris, London, they stay in the hotel district, they get on the double-decker bus. They wait in line to get a selfie in front of a landmark,” he said. 

  “I think that’s going to get smaller as a percentage of travel in the future, and I think it’s going to get somewhat displaced, or at least balanced, by people visiting smaller communities,” he added. 

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  The redistribution Chesky describes is a reversal of international trips to more domestic ones, but instead of travelers going to big cities and famous landmarks – they will vacation in rural communities. The days of vacationing in New York, London, Paris, Rome, and Hong Kong are limited. 

  So who are the winners and losers in this emerging travel trend Chesky sees playing out? 

  Winners: 

  • Airbnb hosts or super hosts with properties in rural communities, near state parks, or scenic views. 

  Losers: 

  • Airbnb hosts or super hosts with properties in major cities.
  • Commercial real estate in metro areas, such as hotels, resorts, and shopping malls. 

  As for all those overleveraged super hosts, we warned about during the pandemic, who saw rental income collapse – they could very well see depressing bookings for a considerable period while properties in rural communities see boom times.

  

• 9 Things To Buy Every Time You Go To The Store
  9 Things To Buy Every Time You Go To The Store
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 20:55

  Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

  Lots of folks have mentioned that their grocery stores never fully restocked after the rush on food and supplies back at the beginning of the COVID-19 lockdown. And with the current news stories about spiking COVID numbers, it may not be long until we’re locked down again.

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  Work on what’s within your control

  It’s important to note that even if you are unconcerned about the virus, there are a lot of things that could be out of your control in the event of another governmental series of actions:

  • Workplaces may close back down

  • Supply chains may be further damaged

  • The economy will take another hit

  • You may not be able to go where you want

  Real, or not real; dangerous or not, the end result for us is the same.

  It’s just like the debate over whether a terror attack in the news is a false flag or an actual terror attack. Every time I write about surviving one of these attacks, people flock to the comments to tell everyone that it was all crisis actors, the whole thing is a hoax, or our own government did it to take away our guns.

  But we’re talking about survival. If you’re there when the bullets are flying or the bombs are going off or the planes are crashing, it doesn’t matter who’s behind it. Your only goal at that point is to survive it.

  With COVID, does it even matter if the numbers are accurate or not? Because the government is using it as an excuse to exercise rigid control over all of us – telling us when we can go to work, when we can visit with loved ones, keeping us away from hospitals and leaving our ailing relatives to die alone, and enforcing laws about masks and appropriate distances.

  Whether or not there’s another lockdown isn’t within our control. There are those who believe the entire thing is baloney and that we locked down for no reason. There are others who believe the lockdown saved countless lives. As it’s impossible to prove a negative, we really have no way of knowing if our lockdown worked or not.

  If stores aren’t open or supplies aren’t available, the end result is the same whether the virus is as deadly as it’s portrayed or not. You may not be able to get what you need.

  This article is about what you CAN do – you can be prepared. With that, at least, we have some control.

  Things to buy every time you go to the store

  We can reasonably predict that some of the things which were out of stock during the last run on the store will be low again. People will remember the things they couldn’t find and they’ll be determined to get them this time. Most stores still have limits on certain products, so I suggest that every time you go to the store, you add the following items to your stockpile:

  • Toilet paper (or you may be stuck with one of these TP alternatives)

  • Bleach

  • Hand sanitizer

  • Canned goods

  • Yeast

  • Baking supplies

  • Powdered milk

  • Rice

  • Beans

  • Meat

  And if you have a baby in the house, don’t forget to grab:

  • Infant supplies like diapers, wipes, formula, etc., if applicable

  You may not need to get these items every time but definitely pick up a few extras:

  • Paper towels

  • Disposable plates and cutlery

  • Disinfecting wipes

  • Disinfecting sprays and cleaning products

  These were some of the most common things that people ran out of or couldn’t purchase the last time around. Allocate some of your budget to purchasing some of these items to put back every time you see them. This will help to replenish your stockpile, which isn’t necessarily an easy task in these days of purchase limits.

  Other things you may want to do

  A lot depends on whether or not you are considered an “essential worker.” If you are, your life may feel somewhat normal. If you’re not, being home all the time could feel like a pretty big change.

  • Save some money – another stimulus check and another round of unemployment + $600 are not guaranteed.

  • Gather the supplies needed for projects to stay productive – organizational containers, paint, hardware, fabric, etc.

  • Get what you need to work comfortably from home – laptop, office chair, headset, etc.

  • Take a look at different homeschool programs for your kids – here are some suggestions for places to start.

  Check out this article – it’s a thorough guide to preparing for the second lockdown.

  Now is the time to prepare

  If you prepare little by little, it’s a lot easier on your budget than buying your entire lockdown inventory all at once. And keep in mind, everyone is thinking the same thing – “I’m not going to run out of toilet paper this time.” You may not even be able to find what you need if you wait until another series of lockdowns are announced.

  By adding an extra $20 or so of supplies each time you visit the store, you’ll be better prepared next time around.

  

• Nearly 40% Of Voters Think Biden Has Dementia
  Nearly 40% Of Voters Think Biden Has Dementia
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 20:35

  Nearly 40% of voters think former Vice President Joe Biden has dementia, including 20% of Democrats, according to a new Rasmussen poll.

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  Their latest national telephone and online survey found that “38% of likely US voters think Biden is suffering from some form of dementia,” while 48% disagree and 14% are not sure.

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  And Given Biden’s recent gaffes – suggesting that 120 million Americans have died from COVID, just months after he said that 150 million Americans have died from guns – it’s no surprise that 61% of those polled believe it’s important for Biden to address the dementia issue publicly, 41% of whom say it is “very important.”

  Joe Biden is very confused.

  He just falsely claimed 120 million Americans (more than one-third of the country) died from the coronavirus.

  This is after he previously claimed 150 million Americans died from guns.

  He’s not playing with a full deck, folks. #BarelyThereBiden pic.twitter.com/GwKgdiFjdb

  — Trump War Room – Text TRUMP to 88022 (@TrumpWarRoom) June 25, 2020

  And as the Washington Examiner‘s Paul Bedard notes, a recent Zogby Poll found that 55% of voters think Biden is in the early stages of dementia.

  “Right now voters have questions concerning Biden’s mental health and stamina,” according to Zogby.

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• Cops Side With Armed St. Louis Homeowners, Investigate Protesters For 'Assault By Intimidation'
  Cops Side With Armed St. Louis Homeowners, Investigate Protesters For ‘Assault By Intimidation’
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 20:27

  Update (2020ET): While reactions to the gun-toting lawyers are sharply divided by political leanings, St. Louis police are investigating the incident as a case of trespassing and fourth-degree assault by intimidation against the couples.

  And of course, not everyone agrees. Local circuit attorney Kimberly Gardner issued a statement on Monday characterizing the events as a “violent assault” on the protesters.

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  “I am alarmed at the events that occurred over the weekend, where peaceful protesters were met by guns and a violent assault,” said Gardner, who says she’s working with police to investigate the confrontation according to Fox19, “We must protect the right to peacefully protest, and any attempt to chill it through intimidation or threat of deadly force will not be tolerated.”

  Gardner failed to mention that the protesters were on private property when the ‘peaceful protest’ occurred, or that the protesters ‘peacefully’ broke down a gate to gain entry.

  Meanwhile, McCloskey attorney Albert Watkins told the Associated Press on Monday that his clients support Black Lives Matter, and only grabbed their guns after several white protesters ‘violently threatened the couple and their property and that of their neighbors,’ according to Fox.

  “The most important thing for them is that their images (holding the guns) don’t become the basis for a rallying cry for people who oppose the Black Lives Matter message,” said Watkins. “They want to make it really clear that they believe the Black Lives Matter message is important.”

  *  *  *

  Update (1115ET): The St. Louis couple seen defending their mansion on Sunday have spoken publicly about what happened.

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  Personal injury lawyers Mark McCloskey, 63, and his wife Patricia, 61, told KMOV4 that they were having dinner with family outside their home when the BLM protesters broke through iron gates marked with “No Trespassing” and “Private Street” and “rushed” towards their home.

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  “A mob of at least 100 smashed through the historic wrought iron gates of Portland Place, destroying them, rushed towards my home where my family was having dinner outside and put us in fear of our lives,” said Mark McCloskey.

  According to police, the couple told protesters that they were on trespassing on a private street and needed to leave. Shortly after, the couple grabbed their guns after noticing several armed protesters in the crowd, shouting threats.

  “This is all private property. There are no public sidewalks or public streets. We were told that we would be killed, our home burned and our dog killed. We were all alone facing an angry mob,” McCloskey told News 4. –KMOV4

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  *  *  *

  A St. Louis couple armed themselves and stood outside their mansion as a group of Black Lives Matter protesters who had broken into their gated community shuffled past while chanting.

  A St. Louis couple defends their home with guns as protesters march through their neighborhood:pic.twitter.com/LqzvrBSREu

  — Alex Salvi (@alexsalvinews) June 29, 2020

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  The couple, identified as attorneys Mark and Patricia McCloskey, engaged in a shouting match with the protesters, waving what appeared to be an AR-15 rifle and a pistol (albeit employing terrible muzzle and trigger discipline and without cover).

  Residents bring out guns against peaceful marchers in St Louis, Mo #respectis #expectus #stlouis #lydakrewson pic.twitter.com/blBOtWjMWS

  — Ryanzo Perez (@RyanzoPerez) June 29, 2020

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  As the Gateway Pundit‘s Cassandra Fairbanks notes, the BLM protesters can be clearly be seen entering a gate into the McCloskey’s private community.

  In this livestream footage you can clearly see the STL black lives matter mob entered through the gate to a private community. This was not a public sidewalk. https://t.co/NeKHgTBWEu pic.twitter.com/UdYq3pGtlb

  — Cassandra Fairbanks (@CassandraRules) June 29, 2020

  “Private Street” pic.twitter.com/r7VMDo60sm

  — Alex Salvi (@alexsalvinews) June 29, 2020

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  Following the incident people began calling for the McCloskeys to be doxed – resulting in at least one publication removing their address from a 2018 article detailing the extensive renovations they performed on the 1912 mansion.

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  Records show the McCloskeys have donated to both Republicans and Democrats over the years, including $4,000 to the Democratic party and at least $2,400 to the Trump campaign.

  Records show he donated $4k to Democratic Party and also defended man against police brutality

  — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) June 29, 2020

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  One of those calling for doxing the McCloskeys, ‘anti-racism executive coach‘ Kyle Dennis, restricted his Twitter account after he himself was doxed.  

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  The loser who called for the St. Louis hero couple to be doxed has now been doxed himself and locked his account. pic.twitter.com/7u9UkFldBU

  — Cassandra Fairbanks (@CassandraRules) June 29, 2020

  And now – watch the left try their hardest to cancel the McCloskeys for letting the protesters, who had broken into their gated community, that they would not be victims.

  Meanwhile, the memes didn’t take long:

  pic.twitter.com/Yh9OFC8cyf

  — Vaiv (@Vaiv71738794) June 29, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  pic.twitter.com/xSZrugNvSW

  — John Noonan (@JohnPNoonan) June 29, 2020

  #antifaFilms presents: pic.twitter.com/F4kzyprwZP

  — ProjectM@yh3m (@Wotansson) June 29, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  pic.twitter.com/t1sfGiVY9u

  — You smell that? (@DonChavez17) June 29, 2020

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• Will China Forming Oil-Buying-Cartel End The Petrodollar?
  Will China Forming Oil-Buying-Cartel End The Petrodollar?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 20:15

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

  China is building a buyer’s group (or cartel) comprised of its major state oil companies. I’m frankly surprised that this wasn’t already the case, since everything else is tightly controlled in China.

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  A report from Bloomberg (via Investing.com) states that:

  Senior executives from China Petroleum (NYSE:SNP) & Chemical Corp., PetroChina Co., Cnooc Ltd. and Sinochem Group Co. are in advanced talks to iron out details of the plan, said people familiar with the initiative, who asked not to be identified as discussions are private and ongoing. The proposal has won the support of the Chinese central government and relevant industry watchdogs, the people said.

  Since China is now the world’s largest importer of oil it only makes sense they would flip the switch and act as price makers rather than be price takers.

  This makes perfect sense, economically, in the current environment as troubled oil exporters like Saudi Arabia continue to try and exert influence over the oil market.

  The Saudis refuse to admit to themselves that their era of dominance over oil prices is, itself, over. As I noted in my blog from last week their attempt to gain market share through price slashing did nothing more than slash their own revenue to the bone, while making no new friends.

  They shipped out 50% more oil and revenues plunged by 65%. They practically gave the stuff away in April. They had to. With the Riyal tied to the dollar they had to undercut Russian oil which trades in freely-floated rubles.

  Because while China is certainly happy to pay less for oil, the knock-on effects of undermining its capital markets were and are far greater than the savings per barrel.

  And that made them no new friends in the Poliburo.

  That Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) acted to rashly in March I’m sure did not sit well with Chinese leadership. They clearly have no use for such an unreliable partner who refuses to take anything other than the U.S. dollar for its product.

  To remind everyone, MBS threw his tantrum which locked up global markets after Russia’s refusal to agree to further OPEC+ production cuts in March. That precipitated the massive drop in oil prices which started the financial crisis.

  So, it’s pretty obvious to me now that China seeks to further marginalize Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in the oil space.

  The proof? Back to the Bloomberg article:

  For a start, the group is set to collectively issue bids for certain Russian and African grades in the spot market, they said. While it’s unclear how the cooperation will evolve, the group represents refiners that import more than 5 million barrels of oil a day. That’s nearly a fifth of OPEC’s total output, which would make it the world’s largest crude buyer in theory. 

  Because here’s the rub, as always, China is looking for ways to deepen international use and liquidity of the yuan. Saudi Arabia and the U.S. want to continue use of the dollar as the main settlement currency for oil trading, the so-called petrodollar.

  It is the petrodollar that provides the most inertia the world fights against to allow the rise of other currencies as settlement. Dollars are cheap to use, freely accepted and, for now, still a good store of (at least) medium-term value.

  The petrodollar was created by the relationship between the U.S. as the biggest importer and Saudi Arabia the biggest exporter. As long as that relationship held the petrodollar flowed into foreign central banks, deepening everyone’s trust in it.

  Now China is saying things have changed. Europe and China are willing to pay a little more for Russian Urals grade (per my article from Friday) after MBS’s tantrum.

  Moreover, China wants its oil futures contract in Shanghai more dominant in the global market. That contract is a key piece to deepening Yuan liquidity.

  Shifting the oil trade where it can trade in real time versus would be a boon to the market. Most of the Arab states set their tender prices at the beginning of the month and they don’t change.

  Back to Bloomberg:

  Importers … have struggled this year to manage the amount of crude received each month amid fluctuating domestic demand, refining margins and swelling stockpiles.

  Volumes can only be adjusted slightly from earlier-agreed liftings, and final decisions lie with the seller. Saudi Aramco, Iraq’s SOMO and Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc all sell their crude at official prices announced early each month.

  Indian processors and ports went so far as to declare force majeure in attempts to back out of crude liftings after the world’s biggest lockdown slashed demand.

  What this cartel will do is create the opposite dynamic than has existed previously. Buyers will dictate terms to the sellers, which is the way the market is supposed to work.

  And it’s goal, I think, is to break the monthly price tender system and put more volume up for open bid in Shanghai.

  Cartels are inherently unstable but, at times, under extreme circumstances, they can be very effective at creating change to a sclerotic system. I think this is exactly what China is looking to do here.

  Watch to see if this cartel comes together. If it does then in order to save itself, Saudi Arabia will have to come to Chinese importers head scarf in hand looking for business.

  At the same time, because they accept other currencies for their oil, Russia stands to take more market share. They can always grind out the arbitrage in currency terms between the Saudi monthly tender price and their own COGS.

  Lastly, don’t think for a second that China isn’t willing to pay a little more here or there to deny MBS and President Trump a few billion in much-needed export revenue and hand it to their partners in Russia.

  Especially when you factor in the real arbitrage that neither country can offer better terms on, that of the real yield on a Russian government bond and a U.S. bond.

  *  *  *

  Join my Patreon if you need help navigating the Swamp of commodities and their political import. Install the Brave Browser if you want to slow Google’s takeover of our public behavior.

  

• "This Is Not Just Accidental": How One Coronavirus Mutation Helped The Virus Conquer The Globe
  “This Is Not Just Accidental”: How One Coronavirus Mutation Helped The Virus Conquer The Globe
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 19:55

  Scientists have been hard at work unraveling the mysteries of SARS-CoV-2 since January, when Beijing finally shared a mapped genome with the global scientific community (though early research also filtered out via the British journal “The Lancet”). At this point, scientists around the world have examined hundreds of thousands of viral samples from around the world. They’ve compared and contrasted their genetic code, and they’ve identified what appears to be an important pattern. That is: the earliest version of the virus that spread in Wuhan is not genetically identical to the iteration that went on to conquer Europe and the US.

  According to a Bloomberg report comparing the findings from four non-peer-reviewed studies, it appears that a notable mutation of the virus that emerged broadly and early during its global campaign helped render COVID-19 more infectious in later iterations than it was during the early weeks of the outbreak, raising fears that the virus could continue to evolve in a way that eludes scientists working on a vaccine, or simply makes the virus more deadly.

  At least four laboratory experiments suggest that the mutation makes the virus more infectious, although none of that work has been peer-reviewed. Another unpublished study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory asserts that patients with the G variant actually have more virus in their bodies, making them more likely to spread it to others.

  The mutation doesn’t appear to make people sicker, but a growing number of scientists worry that it has made the virus more contagious.

  “The epidemiological study and our data together really explain why the [G variant’s] spread in Europe and the U.S. was really fast,” said Hyeryun Choe, a virologist at Scripps Research and a lead author of an unpublished study on the G variant’s enhanced infectiousness in laboratory cell cultures. “This is not just accidental.”

  Another team of researchers described the feeling of shock when they realized just how much more effective this mutation made the virus in terms of its ability to break into human cells.

  Neville Sanjana, a geneticist at the New York Genome Center and New York University, was trying to figure out which genes enable SARS-CoV-2 to infiltrate human cells. But in experiments based on a gene sequence taken from an early case of the virus in Wuhan, he struggled to get that form of the virus to infect cells. Then the team switched to a model virus based on the G variant.

  “We were shocked,” Sanjana said. “Voilà! It was just this huge increase in viral transduction.” They repeated the experiment in many types of cells, and every time the variant was many times more infectious.

  The mutation in question is known as D614G, or just “G” for short. So far, the “G” mutation has been found in roughly 70% of the half a million or so samples that have uploaded to a shared database for scientists around the world. This has convinced many scientists of its significance, especially because the mutation occurs in a part of the genome that governs the infamous “spike” protein that gives the virus its name (“corona” = crown in Latin) and is believed to enable it to infiltrate human cells.

  “I think that slowly we’re beginning to come to a consensus,” said Judd Hultquist, a virologist at Northwestern University.

  And although it won’t help the quest for a cure, understanding the role of these mutations is critical for understanding how the virus works. This, in turn, would allow scientists to track mutations and help them discern which might enhance the virus’s capability to destroy human life.

  “Understanding how transmissions are happening won’t be a magic bullet, but it will help us respond better,” Sabeti said. “This is a race against time.”

  Though, to be sure, even with all the research that’s been done so far, scientists can’t say much, if anything, for certain about the mutation. There may be other explanations for the G variant’s dominance in the global pandemic: perhaps biases in where genetic data are being collected has led it to be overrepresented in samples, or quirks that led the “G” variant to dominate in particularly susceptible populations.

  “The bottom line is, we haven’t seen anything definitive yet,” said Jeremy Luban, a virologist at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst.

  Remember that the next time you hear Trump, Dr. Fauci or the White House “vaccine czar” discuss the possibility of having a vaccine available by year end, or next time you see a country contract to buy millions of doses of Gilead’s remdesivir, just keep this in mind.

  

• Forbes Censors Award-Winning Environmentalist's Apology Over Three-Decade 'Climate Scare' – So Here It Is
  Forbes Censors Award-Winning Environmentalist’s Apology Over Three-Decade ‘Climate Scare’ – So Here It Is
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 19:35

  Forbes has decided to unpublish an article by award-winning climate activist Michael Shellenberger, in which he apologizes “for the climate scare we created over the last 30 years.”

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  Schellenberger, a progressive, was named one of TIME‘s “Heroes of the Environment,” while his book Break Through was heralded by WIRED as potentially “the best thing to happen to environmentalism since Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring.”

  His book Apocalypse Never was widely praised as an ‘eye-opening, fact-based approach’ to climate science and ‘engaging and well-researched.’

  Now that he’s apologized for three-decades of climate alarmism, Forbes has now blocked Shellenberger’s article without explanation.

  So, here it is:

  * * *

  Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Environmental Progress  (emphasis ours)

  On Behalf Of Environmentalists, I Apologize For The Climate Scare

  On behalf of environmentalists everywhere, I would like to formally apologize for the climate scare we created over the last 30 years. Climate change is happening. It’s just not the end of the world. It’s not even our most serious environmental problem. 

  I may seem like a strange person to be saying all of this. I have been a climate activist for 20 years and an environmentalist for 30. 

  But as an energy expert asked by Congress to provide objective expert testimony, and invited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to serve as Expert Reviewer of its next Assessment Report, I feel an obligation to apologize for how badly we environmentalists have misled the public.

  Here are some facts few people know:

  • Humans are not causing a “sixth mass extinction” 

  • The Amazon is not “the lungs of the world”

  • Climate change is not making natural disasters worse

  • Fires have declined 25% around the world since 2003

  • The amount of land we use for meat — humankind’s biggest use of land — has declined by an area nearly as large as Alaska

  • The build-up of wood fuel and more houses near forests, not climate change, explain why there are more, and more dangerous, fires in Australia and California

  • Carbon emissions are declining in most rich nations and have been declining in Britain, Germany, and France since the mid-1970s 

  • Adapting to life below sea level made the Netherlands rich not poor

  • We produce 25% more food than we need and food surpluses will continue to rise as the world gets hotter

  • Habitat loss and the direct killing of wild animals are bigger threats to species than climate change

  • Wood fuel is far worse for people and wildlife than fossil fuels

  • Preventing future pandemics requires more not less “industrial” agriculture

  I know that the above facts will sound like “climate denialism” to many people. But that just shows the power of climate alarmism. 

  In reality, the above facts come from the best-available scientific studies, including those conducted by or accepted by the IPCC, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and other leading scientific bodies. 

  Some people will, when they read this imagine that I’m some right-wing anti-environmentalist. I’m not. At 17, I lived in Nicaragua to show solidarity with the Sandinista socialist revolution. At 23 I raised money for Guatemalan women’s cooperatives. In my early 20s I lived in the semi-Amazon doing research with small farmers fighting land invasions. At 26 I helped expose poor conditions at Nike factories in Asia. 

  I became an environmentalist at 16 when I threw a fundraiser for Rainforest Action Network. At 27 I helped save the last unprotected ancient redwoods in California. In my 30s I advocated renewables and successfully helped persuade the Obama administration to invest $90 billion into them. Over the last few years I helped save enough nuclear plants from being replaced by fossil fuels to prevent a sharp increase in emissions 

  But until last year, I mostly avoided speaking out against the climate scare. Partly that’s because I was embarrassed. After all, I am as guilty of alarmism as any other environmentalist. For years, I referred to climate change as an “existential” threat to human civilization, and called it a “crisis.” 

  But mostly I was scared. I remained quiet about the climate disinformation campaign because I was afraid of losing friends and funding. The few times I summoned the courage to defend climate science from those who misrepresent it I suffered harsh consequences. And so I mostly stood by and did next to nothing as my fellow environmentalists terrified the public.

  I even stood by as people in the White House and many in the news media tried to destroy the reputation and career of an outstanding scientist, good man, and friend of mine, Roger Pielke, Jr., a lifelong progressive Democrat and environmentalist who testified in favor of carbon regulations. Why did they do that? Because his research proves natural disasters aren’t getting worse. 

  But then, last year, things spiraled out of control. 

  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said “The world is going to end in twelve years if we don’t address climate change.” Britain’s most high-profile environmental group claimed “Climate Change Kills Children.” 

  The world’s most influential green journalist, Bill McKibben, called climate change the “greatest challenge humans have ever faced” and said it would “wipe out civilizations.” 

  Mainstream journalists reported, repeatedly, that the Amazon was “the lungs of the world,” and that deforestation was like a nuclear bomb going off.

  As a result, half of the people surveyed around the world last year said they thought climate change would make humanity extinct. And in January, one out of five British children told pollsters they were having nightmares about climate change.

  Whether or not you have children you must see how wrong this is. I admit I may be sensitive because I have a teenage daughter. After we talked about the science she was reassured. But her friends are deeply misinformed and thus, understandably, frightened. 

  I thus decided I had to speak out. I knew that writing a few articles wouldn’t be enough. I needed a book to properly lay out all of the evidence. 

   And so my formal apology for our fear-mongering comes in the form of my new book, Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All. 

  It is based on two decades of research and three decades of environmental activism. At 400 pages, with 100 of them endnotes, Apocalypse Never covers climate change, deforestation, plastic waste, species extinction, industrialization, meat, nuclear energy, and renewables.

  Some highlights from the book:

  • Factories and modern farming are the keys to human liberation and environmental progress 

  • The most important thing for saving the environment is producing more food, particularly meat, on less land 

  • The most important thing for reducing air pollution and carbon emissions is moving from wood to coal to petroleum to natural gas to uranium 

  • 100% renewables would require increasing the land used for energy from today’s 0.5% to 50% 

  • We should want cities, farms, and power plants to have higher, not lower, power densities

  • Vegetarianism reduces one’s emissions by less than 4%

  • Greenpeace didn’t save the whales, switching from whale oil to petroleum and palm oil did

  • “Free-range” beef would require 20 times more land and produce 300% more emissions

  • Greenpeace dogmatism worsened forest fragmentation of the Amazon

  • The colonialist approach to gorilla conservation in the Congo produced a backlash that may have resulted in the killing of 250 elephants

  Why were we all so misled?

  In the final three chapters of Apocalypse Never I expose the financial, political, and ideological motivations. Environmental groups have accepted hundreds of millions of dollars from fossil fuel interests. Groups motivated by anti-humanist beliefs forced the World Bank to stop trying to end poverty and instead make poverty “sustainable.” And status anxiety, depression, and hostility to modern civilization are behind much of the alarmism

  Once you realize just how badly misinformed we have been, often by people with plainly unsavory or unhealthy motivations, it is hard not to feel duped. 

  Will Apocalypse Never make any difference? There are certainly reasons to doubt it. 

  The news media have been making apocalyptic pronouncements about climate change since the late 1980s, and do not seem disposed to stop. 

  The ideology behind environmental alarmsim — Malthusianism — has been repeatedly debunked for 200 years and yet is more powerful than ever.

  But there are also reasons to believe that environmental alarmism will, if not come to an end, have diminishing cultural power. 

  The coronavirus pandemic is an actual crisis that puts the climate “crisis” into perspective. Even if you think we have overreacted, Covid-19 has killed nearly 500,000 people and shattered economies around the globe.

  Scientific institutions including WHO and IPCC have undermined their credibility through the repeated politicization of science. Their future existence and relevance depends on new leadership and serious reform.

  Facts still matter, and social media is allowing for a wider range of new and independent voices to outcompete alarmist environmental journalists at legacy publications. 

  Nations are reverting openly to self-interest and away from Malthusianism and neoliberalism, which is good for nuclear and bad for renewables.

  The evidence is overwhelming that our high-energy civilization is better for people and nature than the low-energy civilization that climate alarmists would return us to. 

  The invitations from IPCC and Congress are signs of a growing openness to new thinking about climate change and the environment. Another one has been to the response to my book from climate scientists, conservationists, and environmental scholars. “Apocalypse Never is an extremely important book,” writes Richard Rhodes, the Pulitzer-winning author of The Making of the Atomic Bomb. “This may be the most important book on the environment ever written,” says one of the fathers of modern climate science Tom Wigley.

  “We environmentalists condemn those with antithetical views of being ignorant of science and susceptible to confirmation bias,” wrote the former head of The Nature Conservancy, Steve McCormick. “But too often we are guilty of the same.  Shellenberger offers ‘tough love:’ a challenge to entrenched orthodoxies and rigid, self-defeating mindsets.  Apocalypse Never serves up occasionally stinging, but always well-crafted, evidence-based points of view that will help develop the ‘mental muscle’ we need to envision and design not only a hopeful, but an attainable, future.”

  That is all I hoped for in writing it. If you’ve made it this far, I hope you’ll agree that it’s perhaps not as strange as it seems that a lifelong environmentalist, progressive, and climate activist felt the need to speak out against the alarmism. 

  I further hope that you’ll accept my apology.

  

• 'Golden State Killer' Pleads Guilty In Deal To Avoid Death Penalty
  ‘Golden State Killer’ Pleads Guilty In Deal To Avoid Death Penalty
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 19:15

  Update (1800ET): As expected, Joseph James DeAngelo, 74, pleaded guilty on Monday to the first of 13 counts of first-degree murder charges against him.

  As Reuters reports, DeAngelo, dressed in an orange jail garb and seated in a wheelchair between his two attorneys, answered “guilty” in a raspy voice when the judge asked how he pleaded.

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  *  *  *

  The former police officer who was finally arrested in April 2018 in Sacramento County and accused of being the Golden State Killer, a serial rapist and murder who terrorized northern and southern California during the 1970s and 1980s, is facing a major hearing on Monday where he will plead guilty in a deal that will spare him the death penalty, but land the elderly suspect in prison for the rest of his natural life.

  Joseph DeAngelo, the suspect, will appear before a state judge on Monday, for a preliminary hearing where he’s expected to plead guilty in a deal to avoid the death penaltyy.

  But instead of being in a courtroom, DeAngelo will be in a California State University–Sacramento ballroom, standing before a large group of socially-distanced victims and family members. With more than 150 victims and relatives prepared to attend, prosecutors secured a room large enough to accommodate everybody while ensuring social distancing would be possible. The ballroom can hold a total of 2,000 people.

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  The “Golden State Killer”, as he eventually became known, DeAngelo may be better remembered as the first criminal suspect to be captured due to the use of a new technique called “genetic genealogy.” American law enforcement keep a database of DNA for Americans and criminal suspects. This database is known as CODIS.

  However, the new technique allows police to find a suspect by triangulating people who might be related to the suspect. That technique turned up several of DeAngelo’s relatives, then a closer look into his profile led to his apprehension. Since his arrest, 150 other suspects have been identified using the technique.

  The Golden State killer had many nicknames over the years, including the original Night Stalker, and East Area Rapist. His MO was breaking into sleeping couples’ suburban homes at night, binding the man and piling dishes on his back. He would rape the woman, threatening to kill them both if he heard the plates fall.

  It’s not a guarantee that DeAngelo will plead guilty on Monday, but such a plea would avoid a trial and preliminary hearings, sparing the victims and their families some grief. Regardless of what happens today, victims are expecting to confront DeAngelo at his sentencing in August, where it’s expected to take several days to tell DeAngelo and Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Michael Bowman what they have suffered before the formal sentence is handed down (unless he somehow gets off between now and then, or commits suicide).

  GSK’s alleged crimes spanned 11 counties in California from 1974 through mid-1986, and he eluded investigators for years.

  

• Three Ideas To End The Rot On College Campuses
  Three Ideas To End The Rot On College Campuses
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 18:55

  Authored by Charles Lipson via RealClearPolitics.com,

  In the early 1950s, at the nadir of McCarthyism, the Cincinnati Reds baseball team was so fearful of anti-communist crusaders that it actually changed the team’s name. Overnight, they reverted to their original name, the Cincinnati Red Stockings, and then for several years became the Redlegs. The anti-communism was justified; the mob mentality was not.

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  Today, we are all Redlegs. This time, the repression is coming from the left.

  It’s not just that a careless word can cost your job, it’s that people tremble in fear that they might say the wrong word. Today, as in the past, the loudest, most extreme voices claim the right to control speech and judge whether it is worthy of being heard at all. The giants of technology and media have either bowed to these demands or embraced them enthusiastically. The result, as in the early 1950s, is a shriveled, impoverished public square. Genuine debate is suppressed, even in classrooms, which should nurture informed discussion with multiple viewpoints. All too often they have become pipelines for indoctrination.

  What’s wrong with this rigid groupthink?

  First, it takes real problems, such as police misconduct or Confederate statues, and inflates them for political purposes. It vastly exaggerates their extent and gravity, mistakenly generalizes them (Ulysses Grant is not Stonewall Jackson), ignores significant progress in correcting old errors, calls any disagreement “racist,” and relies on intimidation and sometimes violence, not democratic procedures, to get their way.

  The loudest voices say America and its history are fundamentally evil, that its institutions need to be smashed so they can be reestablished on “socially just” foundations. The mob and their fellow travelers will determine what is just. Who gives them that right? This arrogation of power and attack on public order will not end well.

  The second problem is that America’s major institutions have been overwhelmed by these demands and have bowed down to them. Public trust has eroded in all America’s major institutions since the late 1960s. We now see the supine results. Instead of standing up to this swelling irrationalism and intimidation, they have appeased it—and sometimes embraced it. Predictably, appeasement has only fueled more extreme demands.

  The rot began in America’s universities before spreading to mass media, cultural magazines, philanthropies, museums, and corporations. More and more parents are concerned that it now suffuses K-12 education. They don’t want a Pollyanna history, but neither do they want their children indoctrinated with a grim, doctrinaire view that America is an evil nation, incapable of reforming its own defects.

  Universities have led this parade of self-flagellation. One reason is that so many administrators and professors agree with the mob demands. The second is that prudent faculty and staff know where the risks lay. Their careers would be endangered, perhaps terminated, by resisting the bullhorns and barricades. The smart career move is to affirm the most strident cries, publicly renounce your old (and now wrong) views, apologize on bended knee, and hope you will not be sent to the rice paddies to learn from the peasants’ wisdom.

  Can anything be done?

  Yes. And it should begin in universities, where so many of the problems began.

  First, universities must publicly reassert the first principle of academic inquiry: free and open debate is essential to research and learning. Bad arguments should be rebutted with better ones, bad data and methods with better ones. How do we know which arguments, data, and methods are bad? Only through vigorous debate.

  To understand why this approach is so crucial, ask yourself: Why is social science so dreadful in the People’s Republic of China and other totalitarian states? Because the “wrong” answers lead to dismissal, dishonor, and even death. Knowing that, the best scholars avoid those fields altogether. Even if their current views are approved, they might be forbidden tomorrow and these scholars will inevitably face political restraints in searching for answers to important questions. Those restraints and their consequences are well known. It is madness to impose them on ourselves.

  In the midst of this full-scale assault on free speech, have universities issued full-throated defenses of open inquiry as the foundation of education? No. Hillsdale College in rural Michigan has done so, and perhaps a handful of  “Bible schools,” but they are rarer than Republican professors of English literature. What almost all universities have issued are vapid letters, reaffirming their commitment to “diversity and inclusion.” Many have said they will pump more money into those projects, which they have already sustained for decades. They say nothing about intellectual diversity, which they don’t consider diversity at all.

  Stating principles of free speech and free inquiry is essential, but it is not enough. Sound principles must be reiterated, and they must be reinforced with best practices. Students, faculty and staff need to know the university’s commitment is more than an empty gesture. Before freshmen arrive on campus, they need to be told their university supports free speech and free inquiry and will not tolerate their suppression. These crucial points should be emphasized during Orientation Week. So, too, should the university’s commitment to enforcing the rules. Students accused of suppressing others’ speech should be accorded due process (which has long been missing on campus), but they also need to face consequences if they are found guilty. Otherwise, the principles are vacuous. Deans of students who don’t enforce these rules should become ex-deans.

  There is a role here for university boards of trustees. They should not intervene in day-to-day academic decisions, such as tenure, but they should insist on basic rules supporting free speech and effective procedures to punish violations. Insisting on these rules and procedures is well within the scope of the university’s governing board. Indeed, it is their duty.

  Second, individual teachers should be told they will be protected if they encourage debate and free inquiry in class. They need a “safe harbor,” even if some students don’t like what they hear, see, or read. University administrators need to give them that protection. You and I might be offended by D.W. Griffith’s “Birth of a Nation” or Leni Riefenstahl’s “Triumph of the Will,” but they are important movies and perfectly appropriate to screen in some classes. Of course, students should be prepared for them and told why they matter. If some students would be traumatized, teachers should try to find ways to accommodate them. But it is no better to exclude important films for fear of political objections than to exclude Robert Mapplethorpe’s photographs for fear of religious ones.

  As an alternative to the malleable and weaponized “trigger warnings,” faculty could add to their self-protection (and students’ education) by including a statement of principle to their reading lists. They ought to say—and mean—that they never intend to hurt, insult, or denigrate any student or belittle any group. Rather, they intend to use their scholarly skills to illuminate these issues as best they can. They should add that, if some students disagree with a reading or interpretation, that is exactly what critical thinking plus free speech allows–and what indoctrination prohibits. What students cannot do is shut down legitimate class discussions, however strongly they might disagree. They cannot substitute feelings, epithets, or personal attacks for substantive arguments. Serious academic discussion is based on empirical evidence and theoretical conjectures, presented coherently and debated openly. Students should know these rules when the semester begins and told why they matter. If they disagree in principle, the university should have warned them not to come in the first place.

  Third, state legislatures should insist that public universities adhere to the First Amendment’s protections for free speech and peaceful assembly, with the normal restrictions that apply to those freedoms. (No bullhorns in the dorms at 2 a.m., and no shouting down of invited speakers at any hour.) Like boards of trustees, they should not intervene in day-to-day university activities; that, too, would threaten academic freedom. But they should insist that university presidents and deans of students reiterate the importance of freedom of speech, explain its role in higher education, and avoid watering it down with qualifying statements implying “social justice” can override free speech. Social justice, like other important concepts, must be debated, not used as a “cone of silence” for discordant views. Legislatures, governors, and state boards of higher education have every right to demand clear principles of free speech and effective procedures to punish violations.

  Whether the federal government should insist on similar principles and enforcement, and use federal funding as a lever, is a more complex issue. Worthy as the goal is, it is yet another step toward centralizing all decision making in Washington, crushing both federalism and civil society. That trade-off is worth a serious debate in its own right.

  Whatever role Washington plays, universities need to act now, on their own, to reassert the core value of free speech in education. Free inquiry depends on free speech. These values are the bedrock of liberal education in democratic societies. Right now, that bedrock is being washed away in a tidal wave of irrational outrage.

  

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• 'Party' Drugs Lose Out Because Of COVID-19
  ‘Party’ Drugs Lose Out Because Of COVID-19
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 02:45

  According to an open online survey with 40,000 participants from twelve countries, the use of party drugs like MDMA and also cocaine has decreased around the world as clubs and other events are on hiatus.

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  Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports that research project Global Drug Survey found that while the use of marijuana, alcohol and benzodiazepines (Xanax, Valium) was up during the pandemic, a net share of 19 percent of respondent said they were using less cocaine (share of people saying they used it more minus share of people saying they used it less). A net share of 29 percent said they were using less MDMA. To quantify drug use, the survey asked people if they had used the drugs in question on more or less days of the week than usual.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Out of the twelve countries included in the survey, around 22 percent of Irish people and around 21 percent of Brits and Kiwis said their alcohol consumption during COVID-19 had increased a lot – the highest in the survey. Ireland and New Zealand residents also admitted to binge drinking a lot more (15 and 14 percent said so, respectively), while 47 percent of UK residents indicated they had started to drink earlier than usual. The most common reasons respondents gave for the increase in alcohol consumption were “I have more time to drink” and “I am more bored”.

  Marijuana use increased the most in Australia and the UK with 26 percent and 23 percent saying their consumption increased a lot. Among party drug users, Australian and French respondents were most likely to say their use of MDMA and cocaine decreased significantly.

  

• Modern Slavery And Woke Hypocrisy
  Modern Slavery And Woke Hypocrisy
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 02:00

  Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

  The news has been filled with reports about Black Lives Matter (BLM) supporters vandalizing and tearing down statues of slave traders, slave owners, and anyone who they perceive as having been historically involved with slavery. In Bristol, England, a statue of the slave trader Edward Colston was pulled down and thrown into the harbor. In Belgium, statues of King Leopold were defaced.

  The actions have caused some local authorities to consider whether all statues perceived as offending current sensibilities should be removed. The London Mayor Sadiq Khan announced a commission to examine the future of landmarks, such as statues and street names, in the UK capital.

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  What is not apparent is how attacking old statues of people who have been long dead is supposed to help anyone, especially millions of black and non-black people, who are still enslaved today. It would appear that the woke activists of BLM and their many kneeling supporters do not care about the plight of modern slaves, of which there are an estimated whopping 40 million today. Evidently, it is far easier, and presumably more pleasurable, to destroy Western historical monuments than to embark on the difficult work of actually abolishing modern slavery.

  In the UK itself, there is a shocking range of modern slavery, something that the local wokesters are happy to ignore as they bravely attack statues of stone and metal. According to the UK government’s 2019 Annual Report on Modern Slavery, there are at least 13,000 potential victims of slavery in the UK, although as that number dates back to 2014, it is questionable. According to the 2018 Global Slavery Index, there are an estimated 136,000 people living in modern slavery just in Britain.

  Slavery in the UK takes the form of forced labor, and domestic and sexual exploitation. Albanians and Vietnamese are among the groups that constitute the majority of slaves. British news outlets have run several stories about the estimated thousands of Vietnamese, half under the age of 18, who are kidnapped and trafficked to the UK where they are forced to work as slaves on cannabis farms. There, they form a small part of the “vast criminal machine that supplies Britain’s £2.6bn cannabis black market”. Those who are not forced to work in the cannabis industry are enslaved in “nail bars, brothels and restaurants, or kept in domestic servitude behind the doors of private residences”. In January, BBC news ran a story about a Vietnamese boy named Ba, who was kidnapped by a Chinese gang and trafficked to the UK, where his Chinese boss starved him and beat him whenever one of the cannabis plants failed.

  BLM may not care much about Vietnamese lives in the UK — after all, they are all about black lives, so how about black slaves in Africa? There are currently an estimated 9.2 million men, women and children living in modern slavery in Africa, according to the Global Slavery Index, which includes forced labor, forced sexual exploitation and forced marriage.

  “According to the U.N.’s International Labor Organization (ILO), there are more than three times as many people in forced servitude today as were captured and sold during the 350-year span of the transatlantic slave trade”, Time Magazine reported in March 2019. According to the ILO, modern slavery has seen 25 million people in debt bondage and 15 million in forced marriage.

  Modern slavery earns criminal networks an estimated $150 billion a year, just slightly less than drug smuggling and weapons trafficking. “Modern slavery is far and away more profitable now than at any point in human history,” Siddharth Kara, an economist at the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, told Time. According to the 2018 Global Slavery Index, “G-20 countries import some $354 billion worth of products at risk of being produced by modern slavery every year”.

  In 2017, shocking footage emerged from actual slave auctions in Libya: CNN documented an incident in which Arabic-speaking men sold off twelve Nigerians. In 2019, Time Magazine interviewed an African migrant, Iabarot, who had been sold into slavery on his way to Europe:

  “When Iabarot reached Libya’s southern border, he met a seemingly friendly taxi driver who offered to drive him to the capital city, Tripoli, for free. Instead, he was sold to a ‘white Libyan,’ or Arab, for $200. He was forced to work off his ‘debt’ on a construction site, a pattern that repeated each time he was sold and resold.”

  Sex trafficking forms a considerable part of modern slavery. The Nigerian mafia, for instance, according to a 2019 report by the Washington Post, is trafficking women by the tens of thousands:

  “Some experts say that as many as 20,000 Nigerian women, some of them minors, arrived in Sicily between 2016 and 2018, trafficked in cooperation with Nigerians in Italy and back home.”

  According to a July 2017 report by the UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM):

  “Over the past three years, IOM Italy has seen an almost 600 per cent increase in the number of potential sex trafficking victims arriving in Italy by sea. This upward trend has continued during the first six months of 2017, with most victims arriving from Nigeria”. In its report, IOM estimated that 80 per cent of girls, often minors, arriving from Nigeria — whose numbers soared dramatically from 1,454 in 2014 to 11,009 in 2016 — were “potential victims of trafficking for sexual exploitation”.

  In parts of the African continent, especially in the Sahel, slavery is still ingrained in traditional culture, even though, officially, slavery has been outlawed. In countries such as Mali and Mauritania, so-called descent-based slavery or “caste-based” slavery — in which slavery is passed down from generation to generation, so that slaves are born into their predicament — is still practiced by some.

  In 2013, it was estimated that around 250,000 people were living in slave-like conditions in Mali, where slavery is not illegal. One Malian slave, Raichatou, told the Guardian in 2013 that she became a slave at the age of seven when her mother, also a slave, died. “My father could only watch on helplessly as my mother’s master came to claim me and my brothers,” she said. She worked as a servant for the family without pay for nearly 20 years, and was forced into a marriage with another slave whom she didn’t know, so that she could supply her master with more slaves.

  In Mauritania, it is estimated that up to 20% of the population is enslaved, even though slavery was officially outlawed in 1981. The slaves are mostly from the Haratine minority, who are black Africans, as opposed to the nearly half of the population who are Arabs or Berbers. According to a report by the Guardian from 2018:

  “Slavery has a long history in this north African desert nation. For centuries, Arabic-speaking Moors raided African villages, resulting in a rigid caste system that still exists to this day, with darker-skinned inhabitants beholden to their lighter-skinned “masters”. Slave status is passed down from mother to child, and anti-slavery activists are regularly tortured and detained. Yet the government routinely denies that slavery exists in Mauritania, instead praising itself for eradicating the practice.”

  The report also described a few of the horrific fates of the Haratine slaves:

  “Aichetou Mint M’barack was a slave by descent in the Rosso area. Like her sister, she was taken away from her mother and then given to a member of the master’s family to be a servant. She got married in the home of her masters and had eight children, two of whom were taken away from her to be slaves in other families. In 2010, Aichetou’s older sister was able to free her… after she herself fled her masters when they poured hot embers over her baby, killing it.”

  BLM and the many corporate executives, university professors, media, sports and cultural personalities who are bending their knees to the movement seem totally unconcerned by the fates of the likes of Aichetou. More likely than not, they have never heard of her or her many fellow sufferers. They are apparently black lives that do not matter — to anyone except the courageous people working in the local anti-slavery organizations.

  Instead, BLM and its sycophants endlessly debate changing the names of streets and universities, and removing statues, all of which do not amount to anything more than infantile virtue signaling. They waste time debating whether people who were never themselves slaves, should receive reparations from people who never owned a slave.

  To engage in all this posturing, while ignoring the staggering 40 million current victims of actual slavery, not only represents the immeasurable depths of woke hypocrisy, but constitutes an extreme insult to those who are suffering their slavery in silence, while slowly dying from the physical, sexual and emotional abuse that they are being forced to endure. If anything is “offensive,” it is that.

  

• Gun-Toting St. Louis Lawyers Defend Mansion From BLM Protesters In Viral Video
  Gun-Toting St. Louis Lawyers Defend Mansion From BLM Protesters In Viral Video
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 01:48

  A St. Louis couple armed themselves and stood outside their mansion as a group of Black Lives Matter protesters who had broken into their gated community shuffled past while chanting.

  A St. Louis couple defends their home with guns as protesters march through their neighborhood:pic.twitter.com/LqzvrBSREu

  — Alex Salvi (@alexsalvinews) June 29, 2020

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  The couple, identified as attorneys Mark and Patricia McCloskey, engaged in a shouting match with the protesters, waving what appeared to be an AR-15 rifle and a pistol (albeit employing terrible muzzle and trigger discipline and without cover).

  Residents bring out guns against peaceful marchers in St Louis, Mo #respectis #expectus #stlouis #lydakrewson pic.twitter.com/blBOtWjMWS

  — Ryanzo Perez (@RyanzoPerez) June 29, 2020

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  As the Gateway Pundit‘s Cassandra Fairbanks notes, the BLM protesters can be clearly be seen entering a gate into the McCloskey’s private community.

  In this livestream footage you can clearly see the STL black lives matter mob entered through the gate to a private community. This was not a public sidewalk. https://t.co/NeKHgTBWEu pic.twitter.com/UdYq3pGtlb

  — Cassandra Fairbanks (@CassandraRules) June 29, 2020

  “Private Street” pic.twitter.com/r7VMDo60sm

  — Alex Salvi (@alexsalvinews) June 29, 2020

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  Following the incident people began calling for the McCloskeys to be doxed – resulting in at least one publication removing their address from a 2018 article detailing the extensive renovations they performed on the 1912 mansion.

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  Records show the McCloskeys have donated to both Republicans and Democrats over the years, including $4,000 to the Democratic party and at least $2,400 to the Trump campaign.

  Records show he donated $4k to Democratic Party and also defended man against police brutality

  — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) June 29, 2020

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  One of those calling for doxing the McCloskeys, ‘anti-racism executive coach‘ Kyle Dennis, restricted his Twitter account after he himself was doxed.  

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  The loser who called for the St. Louis hero couple to be doxed has now been doxed himself and locked his account. pic.twitter.com/7u9UkFldBU

  — Cassandra Fairbanks (@CassandraRules) June 29, 2020

  And now – watch the left try their hardest to cancel the McCloskeys for letting the protesters, who had broken into their gated community, that they would not be victims.

  Meanwhile, the memes didn’t take long:

  pic.twitter.com/Yh9OFC8cyf

  — Vaiv (@Vaiv71738794) June 29, 2020

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  pic.twitter.com/xSZrugNvSW

  — John Noonan (@JohnPNoonan) June 29, 2020

  #antifaFilms presents: pic.twitter.com/F4kzyprwZP

  — ProjectM@yh3m (@Wotansson) June 29, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  pic.twitter.com/t1sfGiVY9u

  — You smell that? (@DonChavez17) June 29, 2020

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• The Old America Is Dead: Three Scenarios For The Way Forward
  The Old America Is Dead: Three Scenarios For The Way Forward
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Mon, 06/29/2020 – 00:00

  Authored by Wayne Allenswroth via vdare.com,

  “Then who do we shoot?” Like Muley Graves the sharecropper, John Steinbeck’s evocative Okie everyman in John Ford’s 1940 film, many Americans are bewildered by a tidal wave of forces that seem beyond their control. The answer is not easy. But increasingly it seems likely to involve geographical partition.

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  Facing eviction from his dust-bowl farm, Muley confronts a man on a bulldozer who has come to demolish the shack Muley and his family live in. The sharecropper is determined not to give in and threatens the bulldozer operator with a shotgun—only to discover he is a local man, one of Muley’s own people. The bulldozer driver explains it’s not his fault, it’s just a job that he was hired to do. If Muley shoots him, then someone else will come to do the job and Muley will land in jail.

  “Then who do we shoot?” asks Muley. The banker? The people back East who own the bank? Morally disarmed and demoralized, Muley can only watch as the bulldozer man destroys his home.

  Patriotic Americans understand Muley. Our people, our culture, our history, everything we hold dear, is under relentless attack by the Main Stream Media, politicians, “activists,” and kritarchs in the courts, aided and abetted by enemies within, often our own kith and kin, who have internalized the blood-libel Leftist narrative of an irredeemably “racist” America that must be razed to the ground.

  “If you know your enemy,” wrote Sun Tzu, “and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”

  Our enemy, in this case is the globalist Blob and its militant would-be Che Guevaras and LARPing Leninists, the MSM, the bureaucracy, the courts, the big corporations, and the education establishment.

  Yet, for the most part, until recently, the Blob has not confronted the Historic American Nation head-on. The Blob has been patient, killing us by the death of a thousand cuts, taking ground steadily through subversion, using propaganda and misinformation, censorship via Tech Totalitarians, and the slow encroachment of what the late Sam Francis called “anarcho-tyranny,” with mass immigration (“the Great Replacement”) as its weapon of mass destruction.

  The Blob is amorphous, a slippery, slimy thing that probes and gropes its way into whatever social-economic-political cracks it can exploit, eventually engulfing its prey like quicksand.

  It is also using “hybrid warfare” tactics that have been used before but have gelled with the expansion of mass communications and can quickly conjure up “flash mobs” and distribute “fake news.”[ Explainer: what is ‘hybrid warfare’ and what is meant by the ‘grey zone’?, The Conversation, June 17, 2019] The scare quote, creative editing, and constant repetition of bald-faced lies, magnified by social media, engulf us in a tidal wave of words and images. We live in a bizarre Twilight Zone that lacks depth and context.

  Give credit where credit is due. Hybrid warfare has worked. The Blob infiltrated and subverted American institutions by exploiting our American sense of Fair Play and decency that made whites a relatively easy mark. As the Blob seeped into our lives, we gradually adjusted to a “new normal” each and every day.

  Then Donald Trump was elected president. The Blob was shocked. Orange Man Bad seemed to threaten its plans to finish off the Historic American Nation. And so, ever since November 8, 2016, the MSM have kept the country in hysterics with one manufactured crisis after another. Fake news via a social media, a hybrid warfare tactic, kicked into high gear: Russiagate, Ukrainegate, the Chinese Virus panic and ensuing lockdown and economic crash, and now the myth of St. George Floyd and blacks being “hunted” by whites that catalyzed the mobs that have looted and burned American cities.

  Using the Chinese Virus and Floyd riots as cover, the Blob and its militant wing—Antifa and Black Lives Matter—ratcheted up anarcho-tyranny to new heights.

  In some American cities, Muley’s question—who do we shoot—has an answer, at least in an immediate sense.

  So what next? Where do we go from here?

  America faces three scenarios.

  • One: Trump is re-elected on a wave of anger over the looting and anarchy unleashed by the “I-Can’t-Breathe” narrative. Trump sends Javanka packing, dispatches the troops to restore order, extends the immigration moratorium, finally builds the wall, and begins mass deportations as the White House protects the dissident Right from deplatforming by the Tech Totalitarians.

  That scenario is most likely a fantasy.

  Even if Trump is re-elected, his past record of bluster and little to no action speaks for itself. The Blob and its executive arm, the Deep State, have boxed him in. Trump and his “team,” if one can call it that, are as easily disarmed by the antiracists as Conservative, Inc.’s operatives. Their immediate and reflexive condemnation of the police after Floyd’s death, like the Beltway Right’s compulsion to apologize for even existing, tells the tale.

  Of course vote for Trump in November. But don’t expect too much. Trump has been, at best, a speedbump, not a roadblock, in the Blob’s path.

  America has survived unrest before, but that was a different country. It had a white, Christian super-majority and a shared history. It had at least a theoretical chance of working out a modus vivendi with its black minority. The language was English and, most of the time, we played by a set of rules to which everyone—liberal conservative, Democrat or Republican—agreed. Elections were not winner-take-all apocalyptic events. Nominations to the U.S. Supreme Court did not occasion brutal, partisan, ideological war. No longer.

  If we bank solely on electoral politics, we will lose, especially as the demographic ring closes. The winners will show no quarter.

  Political life as we knew it in America is over. Again, the America we grew up in and loved is dead. Elections are a holding action at best. It seems highly unlikely that Trump (or anyone else, for that matter) can, for instance, deport and encourage to self-deport tens of millions of illegal aliens, even assuming a desire to do so.

  What’s more, a substantial portion of the dwindling white majority has disavowed its identity—the “flight from white,” as Steve Sailer calls it. Meanwhile, the Blob controls the Deep State and its bureaucracy not only on the federal level but also in too many swing states and major metropolitan areas.

  • Two: Trump loses, and the Blob and its allies triumph. But because this is a country now and not a nation, with no shared sense of common identity and agreed-upon history, culture, beliefs, or language, only a full-blown police state can hold it together.

  Even that might not ensure order in a chaotic post-America, and the diminishing number of whites will surely not enjoy the protection of the state. At some point, white Americans might well be living like white South Africans, ever in fear for their lives.

  If order breaks down, vigilante groups, even criminal gangs, will step into the void, as vigilantes have done in Mexico and Hispanic gangs have done to protect their neighborhoods during the Floyd riots.

  The good news: white men have followed suit when mobs threatened their homes and history. The boys in Fishtown in metropolitan Philadelphia who protected a police station, the heroes who surrounded and protected a statue of Christopher Columbus, and a group of armed Texans who gathered to protect the Alamo,are just three examples.

  Meanwhile, following the “higher number than usual” of Atlanta police officers calling in sick when one of their own was charged with felony murder in the shootingof Rayshard Brooks, Seth Cohen at Forbes wondered whether the “Blue flu” would be “America’s next pandemic.” [As Atlanta Police Protest, Is “Blue Flu” The Next Pandemic? , June 18, 2020]. As calls to “defund the police” mount, that’s a good question.

  And it raises another: what happens if America’s truckers decide not to deliver to cities with no police protection?

  So far, resistance to the Blob is scattered and uncoordinated, but that could change as the American systemic crisis deepens.

  • Three: The country breaks apart, and the Historic American people establish enclaves for themselves and others who love and fondly remember the old America.

  The breakup, indeed, is underway. Blue states and Leftist kritarchs nullify laws they don’t like. Sanctuary cities and even sanctuary states defy immigration laws. Meanwhile, American patriots have answered with Second Amendment sanctuarycounties and even states. Americans in inland California talk of seceding from the “Left coast.” The Left has floated secession talk as well: anarchists have seized and established their own “autonomous zone” in Seattle. West Virginia’s governor, Jim Justice, invited conservative counties in Virginia to secede and join the Mountain State. [West Virginia Republicans encourage conservative Virginia counties to ‘Vexit’ by Kelly Mena, CNN, Sun February 9, 2020] .

  States, counties, and cities that sided with or surrendered to the mob, and the Blob’s intensification of anarcho-tyranny during the recent coronavirus lock down, seem to have sparked a sharp reaction from the American remnant that could provide the bare bones of a Middle American defense movement.

  Someday, “blue” and “red” enclaves, even whole states, might evolve into new polities.

  American patriots are developing their own hybrid warfare with media of their own, effectively following the Left’s example of nullification and internal secession, as well as organizing an alternative cultural network that publishes its own books, educates its children, and tries to carry on despite the threat of Deep State suppression.

  My guess for the future: combination of scenarios two and three. The managerial state tightens its grip, the result on November 3 regardless, but devolution continues.

  The Blob won’t let up. The riots we recently witnessed will continue even if Trump sends in the troops now.

  When that happens, we won’t need to ask Muley’s question.

  

• Japan Dominates The World's Top Supercomputers
  Japan Dominates The World’s Top Supercomputers
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 23:30

  Japanese supercomputer Fugaku zipped past all competitors to claim the top spot in the twice-annual ranking of the world’s most powerful computational machines released by research project Top500.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports that Fugaku, which was developed by Fujitsu in cooperation with the federal Riken research lab, was able to perform almost three times as many computations per second as former leader of the list, U.S.-based supercomputer Summit.

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  Fugaku has not only topped the ranking in the number of computations per second – so-called TeraFLOPS – but in all four categories that supercomputers are judged on by the project. According to the Riken lab, no other computer had achieved this feat so far. Fugaku also had the most cores of all computers ranked, the highest theoretical peak performance for computations and the highest power capacity.

  Supercomputers are used to run complicated simulations that involve a large number of variables. Common uses include economic and climate modeling, neurological research and nuclear science.

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  In the case of Fugaku, the machine’s power is also used to research the coronavirus, more specifically to run simulations of how respiratory droplets move through the air in different settings like offices or train carriages.

  The list of the top 8 supercomputers in the world includes two Dell and two IBM machines as well as two Chinese supercomputers run by the Chinese government.

  

• COVID-19 Hype Is Essential…
  COVID-19 Hype Is Essential…
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 23:00

  Authored by ‘sundance’ via TheConservativeTreehouse.com,

  In order to support the most important political objectives of the DNC writ large in the 2020 election, COVID-19 hype is essential:

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  • Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot easily achieve ‘mail-in’ voting; which they desperately need in key battleground states in order to control the outcome.

  • Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot shut down rallies and political campaigning efforts of President Trump; which they desperate need to do in key battleground states.

  • Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot block the campaign contrast between an energetic President Trump and a physically tenuous, mentally compromised, challenger.

  • Without COVID-19 panic Democrats do not have an excuse for cancelling the DNC convention in Milwaukee; thereby blocking Team Bernie Sanders from visible opposition while protecting candidate gibberish from himself.

  • Without COVID-19 panic Democrats do not have a mechanism to keep voters isolated from each-other; limiting communication and national debate adverse to their interests. COVID-19 panic pushes the national conversation into the digital space where Big Tech controls every element of the conversation.

  • Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot keep their Blue state economies easily shut-down and continue to block U.S. economic growth.  All thriving economies are against the political interests of Democrats.

  • Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot easily keep club candidate Joe Biden sealed in the basement; where the electorate is not exposed to visible signs of his dementia.

  • Without COVID-19 panic it becomes more difficult for Big Tech to censor voices that would outline the fraud and scheme.  With COVID-19 panic they have a better method and an excuse.

  • Without COVID-19 panic Democrats cannot advance, influence, or organize their preferred presidential debate format, a ‘virtual presidential debate’ series. [Comrade Gretchen Whitmer knows this plan, hence she cancelled the Michigan venue]

  All of these, and more, strategic outcomes are based on the manufactured weaponization of the COVID-19 virus to achieve a larger political objective.  There is ZERO benefit to anyone other than Democrats for the overwhelming hype surrounding COVID-19.

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  It is not coincidental that all corporate media are all-in to facilitate the demanded fear that Democrats need in order to achieve their objectives.  Thus there is an alignment of all big government institutions and multinationals to support the same.

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  Nothing is coincidental. Everything is political.

  

• Satellite Images Suggest Massive Iran 'Mystery' Explosion Was At Secret Missile Site
  Satellite Images Suggest Massive Iran ‘Mystery’ Explosion Was At Secret Missile Site
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 22:30

  It began with Iranian claims of a mere accidental gas pipeline explosion or blast that was the result of gas leak at a civilian storage site in the desert late last week.

  This after multiple videos emerged online showing what appeared a huge fireball and multiple flashes lighting up the night sky at around midnight Thursday. Clearly a massive blast, it prompted Iran’s defense ministry to address it, given it was in the vicinity of a sensitive military site. 

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  A military spokesperson dismissed it as an accident a gas storage facility in a “public area” of Parchin, about 20 miles southeast of Tehran, in statements to sate TV, but it didn’t take long for analysts in the West to identify the area as being close to alleged secretive missile factories. 

  Satellite image shows aftermath of the explosion at Khojir missile base in Iran. One building completely destroyed and a large burn area.

  Iran claims a gas tank exploded near a military base. There’s no sign of a gas tank here and the blast is inside the base.

  Image: @Maxar pic.twitter.com/ofUzOtbvkV

  — Raf Sanchez (@rafsanchez) June 28, 2020

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  This based on satellite images said to pinpoint the blast site: 

  Iran may have been up to more than it claims after mysterious explosions ripped apart an area near secretive missile factories in the hills east of Tehran.

  Images have identified a burned area in the hills near the Khojir Missile Production Complex.

  Regional media is now speculating that something worse may have happened when a massive explosion lit up the night skies over Iran last week. Theories initially pointed to Parchin as the location of the explosion. Iranian media claimed it was just a gas leak at a storage facility.

  Prior explosions at missile and other defense testing sites have previously been covered up or downplayed by the Islamic Republic, reports suggest.

  “While Parchin has gained notoriety for its role in Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear weapons program, Khojir has generally escaped public scrutiny despite being the single most important site associated with Iran’s ballistic missile program. The vast area nestled https://t.co/lAqccHPMeQ

  — Alireza Nader علیرضا نادر (@AlirezaNader) June 27, 2020

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  Initially on Friday even Iranian media described the explosion, heard and seen for miles, as a mystery blast. “The cause of this sound and light is not yet known, but it was clearly heard in Pardis, in Boumhen and surrounding areas” of the Iranian capital, Mehr news agency had reported.

  Further fueling the speculation is that tensions with Israel and the United States are still soaring, given Iran’s moving forward with developing uranium enrichment capabilities – blowing past caps in place under the JCPOA – which Tehran has all along said is for peaceful nuclear energy.

  But Israel believes Tehran both pursuing warheads and the ability to launch. 

  ویدیویی از #نور_تهران [#انفجار_تهران؟]
  صدای فیلم میگه: بچه‌ها اینجا پردیسه… از پشت کوه‌ها صدای #انفجار اومد الان هم نورش داره میاد.

  (منظورش از “اینجا” احتمالا اونجایی است که خودش هست.)@iranshekar pic.twitter.com/mJysRbTZzl

  — Vahid Online (@Vahid) June 25, 2020

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  Anytime such unexplained ‘explosions in the desert’ happen in Iran, there’s also the question of possible Israeli jet or drone attacks, given Israeli Air Force strikes on Iranian targets inside Syria have become so frequent as to be a near weekly occurrence of late. 

  

• Major Mexican Cartels: Drug Wars And Business
  Major Mexican Cartels: Drug Wars And Business
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 22:00

  Submitted by SouthFront,

  A previous report by South Front documented the heavy human, social and material costs of the drug wars in Mexico, which have devastated the country since the mid-2000s. In this report some of the major factors in the rapidly shifting environment of the main cartels over the last ten years, and their frequent formations, disintegrations and reconfigurations, are reviewed.

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  The markets for drugs: key aspects

  Cocaine from Colombia supplies most of the U.S. market, and most of that supply now passes through Mexico, with Mexican drug traffickers the primary wholesalers of cocaine to the United States. According to official estimates, coca cultivation and cocaine production in Colombia have risen or remained constant over the last couple of years, with the U.S. government estimating that Colombia produced a record 921 metric tons of pure cocaine in 2017. For 2018, the U.S. government reported that Colombia’s coca cultivation dropped slightly to 208,000 hectares and its potential cocaine production declined to an estimated 887 metric tons.

  In its 2018 National Drug Threat Assessment (NDTA), the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) states that Mexican trafficking organizations also dominate heroin and fentanyl exports from the country. Mexico’s heroin traffickers, who traditionally provided black or brown heroin to U.S. cities west of the Mississippi, began in 2012 and 2013 to innovate and changed their opium processing methods to produce white heroin, a purer and more potent product, which they trafficked mainly to the U.S. East Coast and Midwest. DEA seizure data determined in 2017 that 91% of heroin consumed in the United States was sourced to Mexico, and the agency maintains that no other crime groups have a comparable reach to distribute within the United States.

  According to the US Office of National Drug Control Policy, Mexico cultivated an estimated 32,000 hectares (ha) of opium poppy in 2016, 44,100 ha in 2017, and 41,800 ha in 2018. The US government estimated that Mexico’s potential production of heroin rose to 106 metric tons in 2018 from 26 metric tons in 2013, suggesting Mexican-sourced heroin is likely to remain dominant in the U.S. market.

  Illicit imports of fentanyl from Mexico involve Chinese fentanyl or fentanyl precursors mostly sourced from China. In addition, these traffickers adulterate fentanyl imported from China and smuggle it into the United States.

  In 2017, Mexico seized 421 metric tons of marijuana and eradicated more than 4,230 hectares of marijuana, according to the State Department. However, it is likely that there will be a significant decline in US demand for Mexican marijuana as more marijuana is grown legally in several states in the United States and Canada, which have either legalized cannabis or made it legal for medical purposes, thus decreasing its value as part of Mexican trafficking organizations’ profit portfolio.

  Mexican-produced methamphetamine has overtaken US sources of the drug and expanded into non-traditional methamphetamine markets inside the United States. According to the State Department, in 2017 Mexico seized 11.3 metric tons of methamphetamine, and as of August 2018, Mexican authorities had seized 130 metric tons of methamphetamine, including the seizure of some 50 metric tons of the drug in Sinaloa. The purity and potency of methamphetamine has driven up overdose deaths in the United States, according to the 2018 NDTA. Most Mexican trafficking organizations include a portion of the methamphetamine business in their trafficking operations and collectively control the wholesale methamphetamine distribution system inside the United States.

  In stark contrast to the vicious life and death battle between the drug cartels, other illegal armed groups and organized crime networks, and the law enforcement officers who must risk their lives for an apparently futile cause, producing armed clashes on a daily basis which have claimed many thousands of lives and inflicted enormous carnage and suffering on the people of Mexico, is the serene and generous treatment of the white collar criminals who have benefitted most from the proceeds of the illicit trade in drugs, mostly from the US and Europe.

  Major banks, such as HSBC and Wells Fargo, have repeatedly been caught laundering many billions of dollars from the drug cartels in Mexico and getting nothing more than a token slap on the wrist from the financial regulators in the form of a fine.

  The entire US financial system is kept afloat by drug money according to some experts (examined in detail by Michael Ruppert and Catherine Austin Fitts, among many others).

  Core features of the cartels’ evolution and structures

  When President Calderón began his term as president in 2006 there were four major cartels: the Tijuana/Arellano Felix organization (AFO), the Sinaloa Cartel, the Juárez/Vicente Carillo Fuentes Organization (CFO), and the Gulf Cartel. Over the following years there were numerous disputes within and between the cartels and a large number of smaller groups were created, many by former members of the large cartels, others forming as smaller and more localised criminal networks grew and consolidated their activities and organization.

  The territorial and functional boundaries of the groups, as well as their leadership and membership, are not always clear cut. Moreover, they are constantly changing in accordance with changes in the relations between key figures in each organization as well as relations between groups, which can also change rapidly depending on the area and activity involved. Hence, some analysts suggest that there could be as many as 20 major organizations if emerging factions and largely autonomous localised groups are included. In an analysis that is useful for penetrating the confusing proliferation of groups and activities, and appears to accurately identify some of the constant factors amidst the violence, misinformation and mayhem:

  The Stratfor Global Intelligence group contends that the rival crime networks are best understood in regional groupings and that at least three geographic identities emerged by 2015, which essentially endure. Those umbrella groups are Tamaulipas State, Sinaloa State, and Tierra Caliente regional group. This framework also shows several states and regions of Mexico where the activities of these three regional groups mix, as in the eastern state of Veracruz, which is a mix of elements from the Tierra Caliente and the Tamaulipas umbrella groups. LINK

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  Geographic zones of influence of the main cartels in Mexico.By the end of Calderon’s term the US Drug Enforcement Administration identified seven major criminal organizations: Sinaloa, Los Zetas, Tijuana/AFO, Juárez/CFO, Beltrán Leyva, Gulf, and La Familia Michoacana. Of these groups, the Sinaloa and Gulf cartels in particular remain powerful despite the arrest of some of their leaders and losing some of their influence to other groups. The Cartel Jalisco-Nueva Generacion (CJNG) rose to prominence after 2010, particularly between 2013 and 2015, and is currently deemed by many analysts to be the most dangerous and largest Mexican cartel. CJNG has thrived since the demise of the Knights Templar, which was successfully targeted and largely dismantled by the Mexican authorities following the capture in February 2015 of its leader, Servando “La Tuta” Gomez, a former schoolteacher

  In the Pacific Southwest, La Familia Michoacana—originally based in the state of Michoacán and influential in surrounding states—split apart in 2015. Its power steadily declined as a successor group, the Knights Templar, grew in prominence in the region known as the tierra caliente of Michoácan, Guerrero, and in parts of the neighbouring states Colima and Jalisco. As noted above, the Knights Templar group has since declined and has in turn been replaced by other groups in most of its former territories.

  La Familia Michoacana and the Knights Templar began as a vigilante groups, claiming to protect the residents of Michoacán from other criminal groups. The Knights Templar was known for the trafficking and manufacture of methamphetamine, but the organization was also involved in the shipment of cocaine and marijuana towards the north. Both groups also preached a version of evangelical Christianity and claimed to be committed to social justice, while others attributed them as being responsible for much of the insecurity in Michoacán and surrounding states.

  Up until 2008, the Beltrán Leyva Organization (BLO) was part of the Sinaloa federation and controlled access to the US border in Mexico’s Sonora state. The Beltrán Leyva brothers developed close ties with Sinaloa head Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán and his family, along with other Sinaloa-based top leadership. Following the arrest of the group’s leader (Alfredo Beltrán Levya) in 2008 the BLO broke off the alliance with the Sinaloa Cartel. Over the following years it lost much of its leadership in a series of operations by Mexico’s security forces and the group fragmented into a number of smaller groups in 2010.

  Several splinter organizations have arisen from the remnants of the BLO since 2010, including the Guerreros Unidos and Los Rojos. Los Rojos operates in Guerrero and is reported to be heavily involved in kidnapping and extortion for revenue as well as trafficking cocaine. The Guerreros Unidos is reported to traffic cocaine as far north as Chicago in the United States and is thought to operate primarily in the central and Pacific states of Guerrero, México, and Morelos. According to Mexican authorities, the Guerreros Unidos were responsible for the execution of 43 Mexican teacher trainees, who were handed over to them by local authorities in Iguala, Guerrero in 2014.

  According to the DEA, as of 2018 the BLO comprised a group of factions that work under the umbrella of the BLO name and traffic marijuana, cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine, with specific subgroups relying on alliances with the CJNG, the Juárez Cartel and elements of Los Zetas to move drugs across the border, while maintaining distribution links in the US cities of Phoenix, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Atlanta. Inside Mexico, the groups are thought to remain influential in the states of Morelos, Guerrero, Nayarit, and Sinaloa.

  The Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas

  The Gulf Cartel, based in north-eastern Mexico, had a long history of dominance in terms of power and profits, with the height of its power in the early 2000s. However, the Gulf Cartel lost a considerable part of its power and in particular its military capability when its ‘enforcers’ —Los Zetas, who were organized from highly trained former Mexican military personnel (including airborne special forces members) —split to form a separate group and turned against their former employers, engaging in an extremely violent competition for territory and markets. The military training, discipline and weaponry of Los Zetas, combined with their absolute ruthlessness and brutality, brought the cartel violence in Mexico to a new level of destruction, lethality and terror that also had a much more devastating impact on communities where they had a significant presence. According to a report by the US Congressional Research Service:

  “Most reports indicate that the Zetas were created by a group of 30 lieutenants and sub-lieutenants who deserted from the Mexican military’s Special Mobile Force Group (Grupos Aeromóviles de Fuerzas Especiales, GAFES) to join the Gulf Cartel in the late 1990s.” LINK

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  Originally based in the border city of Matamoros, Tamaulipas, the Gulf Cartel expanded and eventually controlled operations in other Mexican states along the Gulf of Mexico, becoming a transnational smuggling operation with agents in Central and South America. In the 1980s, its leader, Juan García Abrego, developed ties with Colombia’s Cali Cartel as well as with key personnel within the Mexican federal police. García Abrego was captured in 1996 near Monterrey, Mexico. Nonetheless, the group continued to grow and it was the main competitor challenging the Sinaloa Cartel for trafficking routes in the early 2000s before the violent separation of Los Zetas in 2010 which significantly affected its operations.

  Los Zetas established a significant presence in several Mexican states along the Gulf, and extended their reach to Ciudad Juárez (Chihuahua) and several Pacific states, also operating in Central and South America. Unlike many other groups, Los Zetas never attempted to win the support of local populations in the territories where they operated, and they are widely reported to have killed many civilians. They are linked to several particularly gruesome massacres, including the 2011 firebombing of a casino in Monterrey that killed 53 people and the 2011 torture and mass execution of 193 migrants who were traveling through northern Mexico by bus. Los Zetas are reputed to kill those who cannot pay extortion fees or who refuse to work for them, often targeting migrants.

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  Los Zetas lost a succession of their most important leaders in joint police/ military operations during 2012-2013, and in 2015 Mexican authorities claimed that more than 30 of the group’s leaders had been arrested or killed. Nonetheless, at least two factions are still in existence, the ‘Old School Zetas’ (Escuela Vieja, or EV) and the Cartel del Noreste (CDN). It is thought that other local gangs have appropriated the Los Zetas ‘brand’ on occasion in an effort to take advantage of their fierce reputation.

  In 2014 Mexican federal police targeted a dozen Gulf and Zeta bosses they believed responsible for the wave of violence in Tamaulipas in 2014, and analysts subsequently reported that the structures of both the Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas were decimated by federal operations as well as by disputes between competing factions. Both groups now operate largely as autonomous fragmented cells that often take on new names to disguise their identity and the full scope of their activities.

  From 2014 through 2016, violence continued in the state of Tamaulipas with regular reports of kidnappings, daytime shootings, and burned-down bars and restaurants in towns and cities such as the port city of Tampico. It appears that the remnants of both groups have expanded into other criminal operations, such as fuel theft, kidnapping, human smuggling and widespread extortion. In 2018 the DEA maintained that the Gulf Cartel continued to operate with its main focus on the cocaine and marijuana trade, but also expanding into heroin and methamphetamine, smuggling the majority of its drug shipments into South Texas through the border region between the Rio Grande Valley and South Padre Island.

  The Sinaloa Cartel

  The Sinaloa Cartel also has a long history, with its traditional base of support in western Mexico. The cartel also has a reputation for brutality and fought a long campaign to establish control over transport and distribution routes through the border states of Chihuahua and Baja California and maintain its status as the dominant cartel in the country.

  For many years the group was widely regarded as the most powerful drug trafficking syndicate in the Western Hemisphere; at its peak, the Sinaloa leadership successfully corrupted public officials from the local to the national level both inside Mexico and abroad, and was estimated to have operations in some 50 countries. As one of Mexico’s most prominent and visible (if elusive) criminal organizations, each of its major leaders was designated a ‘kingpin’ by US authorities in the early 2000s. At the top of the hierarchy was Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán, listed in 2001, Ismael Zambada Garcia (“El Mayo”), listed in 2002, and Juan Jose “El Azul” Esparragoza Moreno, listed in 2003.

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  According to official estimates, the Sinaloa Cartel controlled between 40%-60% of Mexico’s drug trade by 2012 and had annual earnings calculated to be around $3 billion, and for many years it was identified by the DEA as being the primary trafficker of drugs to the United States. In 2008, a federation dominated by the Sinaloa Cartel (which included the Beltrán Leyva organization and the Juárez Cartel) disintegrated, leading to a battle among the former partners that sparked one of the most violent periods in recent Mexican history.

  The Sinaloa Cartel has adopted a more decentralized structure of loosely linked semi-autonomous organizations, which has made it more susceptible to conflict when factions break away under mid-level commanders. However, the decentralized structure has also enabled it to adapt quickly in the highly competitive and unstable environment and withstand the loss of key personnel following its targeting by Mexican and US authorities.

  This was demonstrated in the aftermath of the arrest of the Sinaloa Cartel’s founder Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán in 2014, who was extradited to the United States on 19 January 2017. The federal operation to capture and detain Guzmán, allegedly with support from US intelligence, was viewed as a major victory for the government of Peña Nieto. Nonetheless, the arrest did not signify any improvement in either the security situation in the country or in the continued dominance of the major cartels over the illegal economy and territorial and social control in many parts of the country.

  Following the arrest of El Chapo and the death of one of his most trusted deputies (“El Azul” Esparragoza Moreno) in 2014, the head of the Sinaloa Cartel was widely assumed to be Guzmán’s partner, Ismael Zambada Garcia, alias “El Mayo”. It is generally thought that he continues in that leadership role, together with at least one of El Chapo’s sons. In accordance with its more decentralized structure, Sinaloa operatives control certain territories through a network of regional bosses who conduct business and violence through alliances with each other and local gangs specializing in specific localities and activities.

  Although El Chapo’s detention didn’t result in the demise of the Sinaloa Cartel or reduce violence and corruption, it does however appear to have encouraged violent competition from the Cartel Jalisco-New Generation (CJNG), which was formed when its leaders split from the Sinaloa Cartel in 2010. During 2016 and 2017 CJNG expanded quickly by displacing or liquidating its competitors in many areas.

  There was a major scandal in October last year when Ovidio Guzmán López, one of El Chapo’s sons, was briefly detained in the town of Culiacán. Upon his arrest, his associates – widely reported as belonging to the Sinaloa Cartel – effectively took the entire town hostage and threatened to unleash a massacre. Faced with the prospect of an extremely bloody showdown, an emergency meeting of the security cabinet of the national government (headed by the Secretaries of National Defence, the Marines, Public Security and Citizen Protection, and the recently created National Guard) decided to release the captive and the armed bandits melted away, leaving the town with thirteen dead and many more wounded. LINK

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  The incident demonstrated beyond a doubt that, although the cartel may have declined in power relative to its peak, it still remains a very formidable force.

  Last week the Mexican President provided more details explaining the reasons for the decision to release Ovidio Guzman:

  “The members of the national security cabinet met and closely followed the ongoing developments and made decisions that I completely support because the situation became very difficult. Many citizens, many people, many human beings were at risk and it was decided to protect people’s lives and I agreed because it is not about (creating) massacres.”

  He explained that the operation was carried out by the Mexican Army, based on an arrest warrant for a suspected criminal, but “there was a very violent reaction…”

  The arrest triggered an immediate general mobilization of crime groups throughout the city of Culiacán and they even took control of the toll booths on the main roads and openly deployed their forces in other municipalities in the state, such as El Fuerte.

  Lopez Obrador reaffirmed that his decision was made to protect citizens because “you cannot put out the fire with fire” and reiterated that his government is pursuing a different strategy than that of the previous governments.

  “We do not want more dead, we do not want war, it is difficult to understand for some but the strategy that was being applied previously turned the country into a massive cemetery,” he said of the governments of Felipe Calderón (2006-2012) and Enrique Peña Nieto (2012- 2018), which produced more than 250,000 deaths and 40,000 missing (‘forced disappearances’) from the so-called war on drug trafficking.

  “It is not easy (fighting crime). It is a process, it is not easy because the problem of violence has become entrenched throughout the country and we have to face two mafias, white collar crime and illegal armed groups, that is what we face.”

  The incident in Culiacán has demonstrated the enormous control that the Sinaloa Cartel and its cells still have over the region, which had been relatively calm in the preceding period. LINK

  The Cartel Jalisco-Nueva Generacion (CJNG)

  As described in a previous report, the CJNG is now widely considered to be the most powerful cartel in Mexico. Also known as the Zeta Killers, the CJNG appeared in 2011 with a roadside display of the bodies of 35 alleged members of Los Zetas. The group is based in Jalisco state with operations in central Mexico, including the states of Colima, Michoacán, Mexico State, Guerrero, and Guanajuato, where it has grown to be a dominant force.

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  The CJNG reportedly served as an enforcement group for the Sinaloa Cartel until mid-2013, and subsequently entered into fierce competition with its former patrons for territory and markets.

  The group appears to have been able to maintain a high level of cohesion amidst the widespread fragmentation, dispersal and mutation of its rivals, and its undisputed leader is Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, alias ‘El Mencho’.

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  In 2015 and 2016 it was described by Mexican and US authorities respectively as one of the world’s most prolific and violent drug trafficking organizations, with operations throughout half of Mexico’s territory, along the East Pacific coast from Chile to Canada, as well as possessing significant networks and operations in Europe and Asia.

  According to a 2019 report by the US Congressional Research Service:

  CJNG’s efforts to dominate key ports on both the Pacific and Gulf Coasts have allowed it to consolidate important components of the global narcotics supply chain. In particular, CJNG asserts control over the ports of Veracruz, Mazanillo, and Lázaro Cardenas, which has given the group access to precursor chemicals that flow into Mexico from China and other parts of Latin America. As a result, CJNG has been able to pursue an aggressive growth strategy, underwritten by U.S. demand for Mexican methamphetamine, heroin, and fentanyl. LINK

  The CJNG recently claimed that there is at least one ‘State Cartel’ operating in Mexico. Although the allegations were extremely vague in many respects, there is no doubt that senior figures in the State have collaborated with one or more cartels, and that this is a common occurrence (as has occurred in Colombia). Indeed, up to 20 former provincial governors are being investigated for varying degrees of cooperation with illegal armed groups; it is certain that a much larger large number of mayors have also been involved in such schemes in some way, given the enormous power of the cartels in many localities – as noted in the previous report by South Front, the 2018 elections in Mexico were the bloodiest on record, with approximately 37 mayors, former mayors or candidates for mayor being assassinated.

  The Mexican cartel “Jalisco New Generation” (CJNG) recently released two short videos with denunciations of the San Luis Potosi government. In the videos, they refer to the State’s government as the ‘Ministerial Cartel’, and further claim that the head of the Federal State police, Jose Guadalupe Castillo Celestino, is the head of the State ‘cartel’.

  The CJNG also asserted that several recent killings in San Luis Potosi were not a result of its activities. To find the guilty party, according to the video statements, authorities had to investigate Castillo Celestino, who struck deals with the cartels of the Northeast, the Gulf and Los Alemanes, ‘selling’ the criminal organizations the right to operate in specific areas and also arranging for the purchase of real estate with drug money.

  The Jalisco cartel also added that it should not be thought that the state governor was not aware of the transactions. The local governments in most of the areas affected are also often either incapable of countering cartel activities, or are on their payroll.

  Although the chief of the Federal Police and at least one provincial governor were specifically mentioned in the two videos released by the CJNG, it remains unclear whether the CJNG is alleging that some State officials are collaborating with other cartels, or whether they have established a specific illegal armed group (or groups) throughout the   country to take advantage of the breakdown in social order, violence and corruption to take over lucrative illegal markets and, perhaps, terrorize and displace rural and Indigenous communities so that political and economic partners can take over their territories and resources.

  Again, any or all of these developments would have precedents and parallels in Colombia, where the Colombian police and US law enforcement and intelligence agencies (primarily the DEA, also probably the CIA) cooperated with the rivals and enemies of the Medellin Cartel, and Pablo Escobar in particular, resulting in the liquidation of the criminal group. However, as with the arrest of El Chapo, the killing of Escobar did absolutely nothing to improve the situation in the country, as the void was rapidly filled by other illegal armed groups. The Colombian military, and to a lesser extent police, have on repeated occasions collaborated with one paramilitary or other illegal armed group in order to take out another group.

  Many aspects of these strategies and interactions between Colombian and US State security forces, military contractors and paramilitary groups are examined in the online book, In Search of Colombia: Social and political fragments and perspectives from the past to the present.

  Community Self-Defence Organizations

  One of the initiatives that has emerged from some of the communities most affected by the violence and predation of the illegal armed groups in rural and remote areas in Michoacán is the creation of community-based self-defence groups. Local business owners, who had grown weary of widespread extortion and violent crime that was ignored by corrupt local and state police, provided seed funding to establish the community-based militias in Michoacán, but authorities were concerned that some of the self-defence groups had extended their search for resources and weapons to competing crime syndicates and might develop more enduring relations with them.

  While the concept is not by any means a panacea, and can cause even more problems for local communities as has been proven in the case of Colombia where they usually served as armed militias and death squads for local political and economic elites and landlords to terrorize and forcibly displace rural and remote communities in collaboration with military and police forces, if carefully implemented on a case-by-case basis under the control and with the full participation of the relevant communities it can at least provide the communities with an opportunity to be able to defend themselves until reinforcements can arrive.

  In early 2014, the Mexican government began to implement a policy of incorporating members of the self-defence groups into legal law enforcement, giving them the option to disarm or register themselves and their weapons as part of the “Rural Police Force,” despite concerns about competing cartels corrupting these forces or the potential for the groups to morph into predatory paramilitary forces, as occurred in Colombia. The federal police and the Rural Police Force had a brief successful period of cooperation, however this ended with the arrests of the two self-defence force leaders (as well as dozens of members) in spring 2014. The arrests caused tension between the self-defence movement and federal police, and contributed to a renewal of high rates of violence in the area.

  The concept has thus far not been incorporated into the new security strategies elaborated by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who has created a specialized National Guard in an attempt to eradicate the corrupt elements of the police and military and severe the links that have been developed between many of their personnel and the illegal armed groups, however it is not clear that reorganizing the security forces alone will be able to achieve this as they must inevitably be made of the same basic elements in a new uniform.  The concept also appears not to be favoured by the leadership of the conventional security forces.

  In some areas however the communities themselves have persisted with the initiative after having found themselves confronted by and at the mercy of apparent, and at times obvious, collaboration between illegal armed groups, police (whether federal or municipal) and military personnel (as well as politicians, landlords and corporate developers in more than a few cases). It could be argued that it is the height of cynicism and hypocrisy to deny communities the opportunity to defend themselves with security forces drawn from and selected and overseen by those same communities if they should choose to do so, particularly given the failure of the public security forces to protect them and hunt down and capture the illegal armed groups in their territories. In contrast, moreover, the economically well-off are usually very well attended by the security forces if they request assistance, and generally face very few obstacles to hire as many private security guards as they wish.

  Even during the ‘lockdown’ measures implemented since the outbreak of the Coronavirus, in many cases the illegal armed groups have been able to move around freely to undertake their predatory activities and terrorize local communities in rural and remote areas.

  

• Food Bank Lines Reemerge As COVID Paralyzes Households
  Food Bank Lines Reemerge As COVID Paralyzes Households
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 21:30

  Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, food bank lines stretching for miles were seen across the US have come to symbolize the financial destruction of households triggered by an abrupt closing of businesses and unprecedented job losses. 

  Tens of millions of people lost their jobs, and millions more turned to food banks. The demand for food pantries was at record levels as the federal government deployed the National Guard to manage food supply chains to thwart disruptions. 

  In March, April, and May, food bank systems nationwide reported unprecedented demand as millions of hungry, jobless, and broke Americans, with insurmountable debts and no savings, had no meaningful way of putting food on their tables. To be more specific, food security among households in San Antonio, Texas, was a huge issue, resulting in more than 23 million pounds of food, serving 240,000 cars at drive-through distributions and 5,800 home visits – was seen at the San Antonio Food Bank over the three months. 

  During the period, retails sales bounced modestly after a stunning record decline – mostly because a quarter of all personal income was derived from the government. Essentially what this means is that the Trump administration activated the money helicopters to avoid a total collapse of the US economy – via unemployment and emergency benefits, welfare checks, and so on.

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  So here’s the issue explained by Twitter handle The Long View – the account notes the stimulus checks that have “bounced” retail sales “like a rubber band” are “all over in a few weeks & with the new uptick we likely see at least six more weeks of contraction with no plug. The real hit starts now.” 

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  And Maybe, The Long View is right, because, while President Trump has given several press conferences where he declared that the economy is quickly recovering: “We’ve been talking about the V,” the president said. “This is better than a V. This is a rocket ship” – food bank lines could be, once again, reappearing… 

  Twitter handle Alastair Williamson posted a video Sunday shows dozens of vehicles waiting in line at what appears to be a food bank in Baltimore, Maryland. We were able to pinpoint the location via looking at local businesses in the video, able to determine the video was taken on York Road in Lutherville-Timonium, MD, outside the Maryland State Fair. 

  It appears the Maryland State Fair & Agricultural Society, Inc. has been running a food bank out of the fairgrounds for several months. 

  So about that V-recovery? Sunday drive down Main Street and food bank line spotted. pic.twitter.com/KC3jfSdwUd

  — Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) June 28, 2020

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  On Twitter user asked: “How can so many people afford cars and not food?” 

  Williamson replied: “their auto payments likely deferred for a certain period.” 

  Another Twitter user said: “7M US auto owners/borrowers are 90 days + in arrears.”

  What this all suggests is that households remain devastated – President Trump’s helicopter drops of free money are likely wearing off as people are now having difficulty putting food on the table. 

  As a consumption hangover is imminent, the Trump administration will need to unleash more stimulus/socialist checks to broke and jobless Americans – though, as per The Long View, it appears consumption is set to plunge before the next checks arrive. 

  The perfect storm of weak consumption and the emergence of a second coronavirus wave could crush households and businesses in a second-round – food bank lines are becoming the new normal. 

  

• Israel Is On Brink Of War With Iran & Hezbollah: Top Israeli Officials
  Israel Is On Brink Of War With Iran & Hezbollah: Top Israeli Officials
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 21:00

  Via AlMasdarNews.com, 

  The former Israeli Defense Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, said that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah are pushing Israel to the brink.

  In an interview with Israel’s national Hebrew-language daily newspaper Maariv on Friday, the former Israeli Defense Minister had expressed his concern about Iran possessing enriched uranium, which he said is eight times the permitted amount according to the nuclear agreement, and that a month ago Iran successfully launched a spy satellite into orbit.

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  Lieberman further charged that Hezbollah is now building a precision missile factory in honor of the late Iranian Quds Force commander, General Qassem Soleimani, which is pushing Israel to the brink, claiming that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no plans to confront them.

  Lieberman said Iran is continuing its ongoing policies in its regular military programs and continues to fund Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Islamic Jihad, although Iran faces enormous economic difficulties of its own.

  However, despite Lieberman’s claims, Israel has in fact intensified their attacks against the Iranian forces and allies inside Syria this year, with multiple attacks taking place each month.

  Footage of Iran IRGC’s satellite launch. Commanders say it has image & intelligence gathering & defense capabilities. Entering space a “necessity not choice,” they said.#Iran pic.twitter.com/Jm84Lmkhai

  — Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) April 22, 2020

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  Last week, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were believed to have bombed not only eastern Hama (Salamiyah District), but also, a number of sites between the Al-Sweida and Deir Ezzor governorates.

  

• Nursing Homes Account For 11% Of COVID-19 Cases, 43% Of Deaths In US
  Nursing Homes Account For 11% Of COVID-19 Cases, 43% Of Deaths In US
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 20:30

  43% of all COVID-19 deaths in the United States are residents or employees of nursing homes or other long-term care (LTC) facilities, according to the New York Times (which fails to mention that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo ordered NY nursing homes to accept coronavirus patients from hospitals). Nursing homes, meanwhile, account for just 11% of all COVID-19 cases in the United States.

  To date, just over 125,000 people in the US have died of COVID-19, 54,000 of which were linked to LTC facilities.

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  By state, New Hampshire LTC facilities are at the top of the list – accounting 80% of COVID-19 deaths in the state. Rhode Island and Minnesota are tied at 77%, while Connecticut comes in at 73% of deaths linked to nursing homes.

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  The share of deaths linked to long-term care facilities for older adults is even starker at the state level. In 24 states, the number of residents and workers who have died accounts for either half or more than half of all deaths from the virus.

  Infected people linked to nursing homes also die at a higher rate than the general population. The median case fatality rate — the number of deaths divided by the number of cases — at facilities with reliable data is 17 percent, significantly higher than the 5 percent case fatality rate nationwide. –New York Times

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  And while New York ranks at the bottom of the pack when it comes to LTC facility deaths as a percentage of overall deaths in the state, New York nursing homes come in 2nd on the list after New Jersey in terms of overall deaths in LTC facilities, at 6,432.

  this is horrifying to look at

  NYC saw a spike in nursing home deaths to 35X prev year baseline

  that’s 3X as much as detroit and cleveland barely budged

  i’ll wager florida looks like cleveland

  this really drives home the carnage cuomo’s policy of focing NH to take cov+ set off pic.twitter.com/Sz84fJwHoV

  — el gato malo (@boriquagato) June 28, 2020

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  Perhaps protecting the elderly and those with comorbidities would have been preferable to tanking the economy with months-long lockdowns.

  

• Why Gold, And Why Now
  Why Gold, And Why Now
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 20:00

  Submitted by Jan Nieuwenhuijs from Voima Insight.

  For thousands of years gold is the ultimate store of value. Currently, gold is undervalued as there are massive bubbles in asset markets and central banks continue to print money, which supports these bubbles. This is an unsustainable situation; and when the bubbles burst the gold price will rise.

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  Gold is the ultimate store of value, as it’s the only globally accepted financial asset without counterparty risk, and it has preserved its purchasing power throughout history. In the long-term, the stability of gold’s value is unparalleled.

  Because gold is scarce and immutable, it has been used as money for thousands of years. Gold’s first use was for adornments—jewelry, regalia, and prestige goods. As early as the 5th millennium BC gold beads of different sizes and purities were manufactured through serial production in Varna, Bulgaria. The semi-finished products were worn in a necklace, and possibly traded.

  Gold beads from Varna, Bulgaria, 5th millennium BC. Courtesy Leusch, V., Pernicka, E, and Armbruster, B. 2014. Chalcolithic gold from Varna – Provenance, circulation, processing, and function.

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  Around 3000 BC weights and scales were invented, which allowed precise measurement of materials and enhanced trade. Gold developed as a store of value, unit of account, and symbol of wealth. By 600 BC coinage was invented in Lydia, what is now Turkey, which promoted gold to be used as a currency. In many civilizations ever since gold was either officially money, or used as a store of value.

  Since 1971, the World has been on a pure “paper money” standard despite the fact that bank notes are hardly used nowadays. Most of the time, what is used as money are digital book entries. Whether in paper or digital form, money issued by governments is commonly referred to as fiat money.

  The Price of Gold Goes Up

  Because fiat currencies can be created boundlessly, over time their value declines, and thus the price of gold denominated in fiat money goes up.

  In August 1971—when the last remnants of the gold standard were abandoned—the gold price was $41 U.S. dollars per troy ounce. At the end of May 2020, the gold price had reached $1,729 dollars per ounce, an increase of more than 4,100%.

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  Although, the gold price doesn’t go up in a straight line, it has always “caught up.” Over time, the price of gold has always compensated for devaluing fiat currencies. Gold’s purchasing power has remained markedly stable in the long run.

  Gold Preserves its Purchasing Power

  Governments aim for stable prices of consumer goods. But with the seductive ability to “print” money, they always create too much. The printed currency loses value, and prices of consumer goods go up.

  Because the gold price keeps up with prices of consumer goods, gold preserves its purchasing power. Since 1800, gold’s purchasing power in the U.S. has been remarkably stable. It became more volatile after 1971, but has kept trending slightly upwards.

  This is the power of gold: it preserves personal as well as generational wealth.

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  So, while fiat currencies lose their value relative to consumer goods, gold has gained in value relative to consumer goods, and not only in the U.S.

  On the Voima Gold homepage you can see that since the euro was created in 1999, the gold price in euros has gone up by 550%. When corrected for (consumer price) inflation, gold in the eurozone has increased in purchasing power by 350% in 20 years.

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  Gold Keeps up With Other Financial Assets

  Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio has compared storing value in gold versus government bills (bonds with a maturity of less than one year), since the classic gold standard has been gradually dismantled (1912). Government bills are thought to be safer than bank deposits, although both have counterparty risk, unlike gold.

  Dalio computed the annual returns in real terms, which is done by subtracting inflation from interest rates. Gold doesn’t have an interest rate—when it’s not lent—it just goes up in price. The result over 100 years is that in major economies the average annual return of government bills was -0.2%, while gold’s return was 2.2%.

  The poor result of the bills is because they are denominated in currencies that have been strongly debased since 1912. The U.S. dollar, for example, lost more than 98% of its value against gold over this time horizon.

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  Compared to stocks and long-term bonds gold’s performance is impressive as well. With dividends reinvested, gold has kept up with the U.S. stock market since 1971, and outperformed it since 1999. Although, gold did worse than the U.S. stock market since 2009.

  With interest reinvested, gold has outperformed U.S. Treasuries (government bonds) since 1971, 1999, and 2009.

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  Performances of all assets in the chart above are measured by their compound annual growth rate, and are not corrected for inflation.

  As you can see, inflation is included in the chart, and “U.S. cash” doesn’t keep up with it. Clearly, the ones that do not own gold, but have a bank savings account, will see their wealth diminish.

  Every Investment Portfolio Needs Gold

  Regularly, when stock markets crash investors flee to gold, causing the gold price to rise. Stocks and gold are often negatively correlated. For investment purposes gold is an excellent diversification. When gold is added to an investment portfolio it lowers volatility and improves performance. Owning gold is for everyone and for all seasons.

  CPM Group calculated that the best risk-return balance of an investment portfolio is reached when it includes 20% of gold (next to an equal share of stocks and bonds).

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  Other studies suggest a different allocation of gold. The sweet spot depends on your time horizon, risk appetite, and the size of your portfolio.

  The Future of Gold

  As mentioned, since 1971 the price of gold hasn’t gone up in a straight line. Naturally, the question arises, is it now a good time to buy gold? I believe it is.

  I expect the gold price to rise going forward, because there are currently huge bubbles in asset markets and central banks continue to print money to support these bubbles. This year alone, the Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet from $4 trillion to $7 trillion dollars. A whopping $3 trillion dollars have been printed in just 4 months. The stock “price to earnings ratio” has reached record levels. Needless to say, this is a highly unsustainable situation; and when the bubbles burst more investors will turn to gold.

  Currently, the stock market is overvalued versus gold, as can be seen in the chart below. Gold will outperform stocks in the years ahead.

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  Since 1971, instead of gold being the centerpiece of the international monetary system, government bonds have taken its place. Capital has been invested in sovereign bonds based on the (false) belief they are risk-free. Now, the sovereign bond market is in a bubble.

  One sign of the bubble is that debt obligations of many developed nations have a negative interest rate. This reflects these securities are strongly overvalued. Another sign is that the world has never been this much in debt. World debt to GDP is currently well over 330%.

  Over-investing in sovereign bonds—incentivized by central banks—has caused governments to borrow beyond their means. For these countries their debt to GDP levels are skyrocketing, and are unsustainable. In the years ahead, global debt levels can only be lowered through debt restructuring or inflation, and both are bullish for gold.

  Data provided to me by CPM Group, shows that in 1960 gold made up 5% of all global financial assets. At the end of 2019, this percentage was 0.52%. There is ample upside for gold. In nominal terms, and—although to a lesser extent—in real terms, too.

  The Threat of Bank Bail-ins

  Last but not least, a serious threat for people’s fiat savings held at commercial banks, are “bail-ins.” In 2014, the European Union adopted the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive. The implemented rules dictate that when a bank becomes insolvent, the banks’ shareholders and creditors pay the costs through a bail-in mechanism.

  Money held at banks is technically a loan to the bank. This makes depositors “unsecured creditors” of the bank. Under the current rules, when the bank becomes insolvent, deposits will be seized to save the bank. Outside the EU bail-in rules have been implemented as well.

  The reason why people are still holding large sums of fiat money at banks, is because many aren’t aware of the risks.

  Conclusion

  Above is a list of reasons why it makes sense to own gold. Gold is the ultimate store of value, and offers protection from inflation caused by reckless money printing by central banks. Currently, governments want inflation, as politically it’s the easiest way of lowering the debt burden. On May 7, 2020, Ray Dalio wrote, “Printing money is the most expedient, least well-understood, and most common big way of restructuring debts.”

  The stock market is currently overvalued, as economic growth around the world is collapsing due to the corona crisis. Stock indices haven’t corrected yet, because they are high on the newly printed money. On June 24, 2020, Money Manager Jesse Felder wrote (based on calculations), “the current disconnect between stock prices and sustainable profits is, in fact, greater than anything we have seen in modern history.” Hence, I believe gold will perform better than stocks in the years ahead.

  Stay up to date, subscribe to Voima Insight—click here

  

• Central Mueller Witness, A Child-Trafficking Pedophile, Sentenced To 10 Years In Prison
  Central Mueller Witness, A Child-Trafficking Pedophile, Sentenced To 10 Years In Prison
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 19:30

  A Lebanese businessman and central witness in former special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation was sentenced to 10 years in prison after pleading guilty in January to sex crimes involving minors.

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  Lobbyist George Nader – who had ties to both the Clinton and Trump campaigns during the 2016 US election for Middle Eastern associates (and was later indicted for illegal contributions to Hillary Clinton’s campaign) – was intercepted at Dulles Airport in January 2018 by agents working for Mueller. A search of his iPhones revealed child pornography, which we imagine was used as leverage to gain his cooperation.

  Three months later, prosecutors filed charges against Nader for the images – however they were filed under seal and kept secret from Nader’s lawyers while he was working with Mueller.

  In July of 2017 – 15 months after Mueller let a serial pedophile roam the streets in the hopes he’d be able to nail Trump, Nader was finally indicted on both the child porn and for sex-trafficking a 14-year-old boy.

  Keep in mind, Mueller knew about Nader’s 1991 conviction on child pornography charges in the US – for which he served only six months in a halfway house thanks to his role in helping to free American hostages in Beirut. He was also convicted in the Czech Republic in 2003 on 10 counts of having sex with underage boys, and eventually received a one-year prison sentence.

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  Months after Nader’s indictment for pedophilia, he was indicted on campaign finance charges in December 2019, along with Ahmad “Andy” Khawaja – a Lebanese-American businessman who has donated to Clinton, Adam Schiff, Joe Biden, Chris Coons, Dianne Feinstein and a host of other Democrats who received up to $3 million in campaign funds. He also gave $1 million to Priorities USA, the primary super PAC supporting Clinton, and $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund.

  Khawaja was appointed to the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in June of 2018.

  Nader embarked on the scheme in a bid to gain influence in Clinton’s circle while reporting to a foreign official, according to the Justice Department.

  Among his alleged co-conspirators is Ahmad “Andy” Khawaja, the CEO of a payments processing company, according to the Justice Department news release announcing the unsealing of the indictment, which was made by a grand jury in the District of Columbia.

  Nader conspired with Khawaja to secretly fund $3.5 million in donations that were made in the name of Khawaja, his wife and his firm, Allied Wallet Inc., according to the indictment. –Politico

  In 2016, Khawaja co-hosted an August fundraiser for Clinton which included a laundry list of high-profile guests, including Univision owner Haim Saban, movie mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg and basketball legend Magic Johnson, according to the report. According to the indictment, Khawaja conspired with six other individuals to conceal his excessive contributions. Others who were indicted were also linked to donations to Clinton and other Democrats.

  The indictment quotes an alleged encrypted message that Nader sent an official from Foreign Country A via WhatsApp after Khawaja contributed $275,000 and invited Nader to attend and April 16, 2016, event for presidential Candidate 1.

  “Wonderful meeting with the Big Lady . . . Can’t wait to tell you about it,” Nader allegedly wrote, in an apparent reference to Clinton.

  The indictment noted that political committees that received funding unwittingly submitted false disclosure reports and were presumably victims of the plot. Still, Hillary Clinton apparently attended numerous events, including small gatherings, with Nader, who on July 19, 2016, messaged the foreign official a photograph of him with Candidate 1’s spouse — an apparent reference to Bill Clinton — at Khawaja’s home. –Washington Post

  Nader is also known to have interacted with Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, according to The Hill, a well as former strategist Steve Bannon and Michael Flynn. He is also reported to have helped arrange Trump’s 2017 trip to Saudi Arabia – interactions which likely piqued Mueller’s interest.

  

• The Second Round Of Lockdowns Won't Be As Easy As The First
  The Second Round Of Lockdowns Won’t Be As Easy As The First
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 19:00

  Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

  The pressure is already mounting for state and local governments to move again toward coerced stay at home orders and mandatory business closures.

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  The constant drumbeat of headlines designed to convince people to adopt new draconian government controls is more of less exactly the same as what it was back in March. Arizona “lost control of the epidemic” one headline proclaims, while another insists “ICU beds full.” A government bureaucrat in Texas says the situation is “apocalyptic” and Bloomberg dutifully features the word in its headline. The governor of California is threatening another stay-at-home order. The Texas governor has re-imposed some restrictions. Florida has “paused” its scaling back of lockdown edicts.

  Americans should expect more of this as the year proceeds. Once we arrive at September, hospitalizations due to the usual winter diseases like flu will begin to mount. At that point, the daily headlines about “full” or nearly-full hospitals will be a daily or even hourly occurrence.

  There is no doubt politicians and government “experts” like Anthony Fauci will briefly emerge from their luxury homes and gated communities to demand that middle class and working class Americans be once again forced to abandon their jobs, take pay cuts, and sit at home. (The politicians decreeing lockdowns, of course, will keep collecting their six-figure salaries.)

  But there’s a problem with the politicos’ plans. They assume Americans will comply with the stay-at-home orders to the same degree they did back in March and April.

  This may not be a very prudent assumption. This will be due to at least two reasons.

  First, more Americans now doubt the official narrative on the disease.

  Second, Americans are now in a worse economic position compared to the time of the first lockdown.

  Both of these factors will contribute to more resistance to lockdowns.

  In other words, a second lockdown will be more difficult – both economically and politically – than the first. Economic pain will mount as political doubts grow.

  The Economic Threat

  A second round of lockdowns also poses a very large economic risk to families.

  Advocates of coercive lockdowns have long tried to portray opponents of lockdowns as just “people who want a haircut.”  The reality is a lot more grim than that, however, and the threat to the economic well-being of many families is going to make a second round of lockdowns far worse than the first.

  Many Americans voluntarily complied the first time around because they were starting from a relatively good economic position. The politicians kept assuring them it was all just for “two weeks” or maybe even a month. After all, when the lockdowns began, the economy was at very high levels of employment. The US was in the waning days of the boom phase of a boom-bust cycle. But it was nonetheless still in the boom phase. Since the spring lockdowns began, 40 million Americans have become unemployed. Twenty million of them are still unemployed, and more than 1.3 million Americans became newly unemployed over the past week. Tax revenue has also plummeted reflecting the downward spiral in Americans’ income.

  The bankruptcies are now mounting. In recent weeks, just some of the companies that have declared bankruptcy are J.Crew, Gold’s Gym, Neiman Marcus, Hertz, GNC, and Chuck E. Cheese. Thousands of retail locations for these companies will be closed. Their staffs will be laid off.

  The idea that everyone can just “work from home,” of course, has always been a fantasy of the well-off. The work-from-home myth is especially damaging for lower-income workers and for blacks and Hispanics. Moreover, if school closures remain, many parents who rely on government schools as a type of “free” day care will find themselves without schools as a resource.

  So far, all of this has been cushioned by outlandish fiscal and monetary “stimulus” designed to bailout bankrupted industries, small businesses and households. Households have received stimulus checks as incomes dried up or were reduced.

  The federal budget is likely to top ten trillion this year (well more than double last-year’s budget) as a result of literally trillions of new dollars being created out of thin air to finance the stimulus checks and bailouts.

  If lockdowns are imposed again, expect even more “stimulus,” bringing the federal budget to 12 trillion, or maybe 14 trillion. There will be no end in sight.

  But apparently-endless money printing can’t continue indefinitely. At some point the upward pressure on interest rates, and concerns over the value of the dollar, become so great that even Congress and the Fed fear another round of stimulus. If that comes this year, household finances will immediately collapse. More businesses will go under. Jobs will dry up. 30 percent of Americans already missed their house payments in June. Expect that to get a lot worse if lockdown mandates are tightened again.

  And as economic  turmoil becomes worse expect more of what resulted during the lockdowns of March and April: more child abuse, more suicide, more drug overdoses. Expect more death from non-COVID causes as  “elective” medical care is banned by executive order. 

  The New Lockdowns Will Be Longer

  Also complicating the situation is the fact that if lockdowns are tightened now, the duration of the lockdowns will likely last well beyond the month or two of lockdowns initially promised. Hospitalizations for a wide variety of diseases (not just COVID-19) will only get worse as the northern hemisphere approaches flu season three months from now. At that point, the end of the 2020-21 flu season will still be a long way away.

  If the current plan for the “experts” and the politicians is to impose a six- or eight-month lockdown until next summer, get ready for an economic depression of unprecedented proportions.

  The lockdown advocates have always claimed the economy would survive relatively unscathed because the job losses and closures were just “temporary.” Their narrative claimed workers would only be furloughed for a couple of months and then the recovery would begin.

  But what if they get their wish for an open-ended lockdown that continues from mid-summer through May of next year? After all, that is the reality we’re looking at if rising hospitalizations justify lockdowns. We’ll be looking at month after month of mounting unemployment.

  Compliance Will Be a Problem

  The heightened economic pain means lockdowns will be harder to enforce, and Americans now estimate their risk of severe illness to be much lower now than was the case during the first lockdown.

  Back in March and April, many Americans didn’t know what to expect. The experts and politicians assured us we were all facing a truly apocalyptic scenario. Bodies would be piling up in the streets. Gurneys would be lining the sidewalks as patients died unattended. Americans were concerned: does this disease affect everyone equally? What is my risk level? Many people took a wait-and-see attitude.

  But now that so much more is known than was the case in March, it is clear risk is hardly equal for everyone — 40 percent of deaths were in nursing homes —and it makes little sense to lock down an entire population to protect certain specific populations. States that never enacted lockdowns during the first round, for example, had fewer deaths per capita.

  Since March, the CDC has repeatedly reduced its estimated fatality rate. Many Americans have also gradually become aware, for example, that in the US 40 percent of deaths attributed to COVID-19 occurred in nursing homes. Many now know that among known cases under age 50, the fatality rate is now estimated at well under 1 percent. The CDC estimates that the symptomatic case fatality rate for people younger than 50 is just 0.05 percent, compared to 1.3 percent for people 65 or older and 0.2 percent for 50-to-64-year-olds. Those are just the symptomatic cases. Many who get the disease show no symptoms at all.

  Americans have realized the risk to most Americans is much lower than what is suggested by the over-the-top panic-inducing rhetoric repeatedly employed my media outlets and politicians. Moreover, for many people, COVID-19 news has already receded to the point of becoming background noise. Every day they are bombarded with dire warning of impending death and destruction. Warnings of this sort soon have a diminishing effect.

  Just as Americans long ago made peace with the relatively high risks associated with highway travel, many Americans are likely to do the same with COVID-19. After all, the most dangerous thing most people do every day — by far — is get in a motor vehicle and drive. Yet few people seem to let the risk limit their daily activities. The more the dangers of COVID-19 become just another daily bullet point, the easier the warnings are to ignore.

  Many will also be less likely to comply because of the obvious hypocrisy of government officials over June’s riots and protests. Medical personnel who condemned any sort of gathering — and especially anti-lockdown protests — suddenly decided mass gatherings were perfectly fine so long as the politics behind the protests was to the experts’ liking. People won’t forget that.

  For those who refuse to comply, the politicians will send in the police to enforce their edicts. Police who refused to stop rioters will nonetheless arrest peaceful business owners. This will also be remembered. The resentment will build. The impoverishment will continue. Americans will be going into foreclosure. “Deaths of despair” will mount.

  Politicians will insist it’s all “worth it” and “we’re all in this together.” The longer it goes on, the less the public will agree.

  

• 41% Of Businesses On Yelp Have Permanently Closed As V-Shaped Recovery Implodes 
  41% Of Businesses On Yelp Have Permanently Closed As V-Shaped Recovery Implodes 
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 19:00

  President Trump’s economic COVID-19 response, through massive fiscal and monetary stimuli, was expected to generate a V-shaped recovery ahead of the elections. We noted, all along, there was never a snowball’s chance in hell that economic growth would revert to 2019 levels later this year; nevertheless, the labor market would fully recover. 

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  If readers recall, President Trump has given several press conferences where he declared that the economy is quickly recovering: “We’ve been talking about the V,” the president said. “This is better than a V. This is a rocket ship.”

  A new report via Yelp, tilted “Local Economic Impact Report,” debunks the V-shaped narrative and tells a much different story of slow reopenings and widespread permanent closures, all suggesting the economic devastation continues to crush the economy with no recovery in sight. 

  Yelp data shows large swathes of Americans remain in deep recession through mid-June. Since April 19, only 20% of the 175,000 Yelp-registered stores that were closed during lockdowns have reopened. 

  “As of June 15, there were nearly 140,000 total business closures on Yelp since March 1. In April, we reported more than 175,000 business closures, indicating that more than 20% of businesses closed in April have reopened.

  “Las Vegas, NV, endured the highest number of closures relative to the number of businesses in the city (1,921 total closures), while Los Angeles, CA, had the largest total number of closures (11,774 total closures).” 

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  Yelp makes a shocking claim: “Of all business closures on Yelp since March 1, 41% are permanent closures.” 

  “Our data shows the largest spikes of permanent closures occurred in March, followed by May and June, indicating that the businesses that were already struggling had to permanently close right away and the businesses that were trying to hold on, but unable to weather the COVID-19 storm, were forced to shutter in recent months.” 

  Of the businesses that shuttered operations, restaurants and shopping/retail have led with the most permanent closures.  

  “Among those with the highest rate of business closures are shopping and retail (27,663 closed businesses), restaurants (23,981 closed businesses), beauty (15,348 closed businesses) and fitness (5,589 closed businesses).

  “Retail was by far the hardest hit, experiencing the highest number of total closures, with the average daily rate continuing to increase since March. Of all closures on Yelp since March 1, 20% are for retail businesses and 35% of closed retail businesses are indicated as permanent on Yelp.

  “In March, Restaurants had the highest number of business closures, compared to other industries, and have continued to close at high rates. Of the businesses that closed, 17% are restaurants, and 53% of those restaurant closures are indicated as permanent on Yelp. Restaurants run on thin margins and can sometimes take months or even years to break even, resulting in this higher rate of permanent closures.”

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  What this all means is the recovery is losing steam. Consumer spending is set to plunge again this summer as the Paycheck Protection Program and other stimulus has run its course. With no recovery – more business closures/ likely more permanent closures and increased job losses are ahead.  

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  To make matters worse, the virus pandemic is re-emerging, resulting in states like Florida, Texas, and California to reverse reopenings, which will further pressure businesses.  

  Readers should review our latest pieces on severe economic damage that is crushing the economy and how recovery might not be seen until 2023: 

  • 25,000 More Store Closures Expected As Pandemic-Fueled “Retail Apocalypse” Rolls On
  • 25% Of US Restaurants Will Never Reopen: Opentable
  • Killed By COVID-Lockdowns: 1000s Of Shut-Down US Businesses Will Be Closed Permanently
  • 52% Of Small Businesses “Expect To Be Out Of Business Within Six Months”; Shocking New Survey

  By now, readers should realize the deep economic scarring by COVID-19 will have long-term impacts and a recovery that is years away.  

  

• Global Coronavirus Deaths Top 500,000; Dallas Pushes To Revive Lockdown As Cases Hit Record Highs: Live Updates
  Global Coronavirus Deaths Top 500,000; Dallas Pushes To Revive Lockdown As Cases Hit Record Highs: Live Updates
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 18:49

  Summary:

  • US reports 42,161 cases
  • Global deaths top 500k
  • Dallas asks for stay at home order to be reinstated, as Dallas County reports record high in daily cases
  • Cali Gov orders bars in 7 counties to close, while recommending 8 counties do the same
  • Texas Gov warns outbreak taken a dangerous turn
  • DHHS Azar warns window is closing to stop COVID-19
  • Cali sees encouraging drop
  • Mexico reports another ~4,400 cases, ~600 deaths
  • Arizona reports another daily record
  • Miami Beach mayor calls meeting on mask compliance
  • Global total tops 10 mil
  • Deaths near 500k
  • Florida reports record weekly case numbers
  • NY reports just 5 deaths
  • China locks down 500k
  • Philippines surpasses Singapore as worst outbreak in Southeast Asia

  * * *

  Update (2000ET): The Atlantic-housed COVID-19 Tracker project has just published its data for Sunday. With nearly all of the data in, the US has tallied 42,161 new confirmed positives reported on Sunday (keep in mind, all these data are reported with a  24-hour delay).

  Tests didn’t eclipse 600k like they did a few days ago, but Sunday’s total was close to the all-time highs, showing that testing remains pretty persistent through the weekend.

  Our daily update is now published. States reported ~586k tests completed.

  For details, see: https://t.co/PZrmH4bl5Y pic.twitter.com/eu2z939NId

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 28, 2020

  First the good news: The 7-day average for deaths (which, we imagine, excludes the 2k reported during NJ’s “adjustment” earlier this week) has reached a new low of just 500 for the entire country.

  And finally, the only good chart in the deck.

  The 7-day average for COVID-19 deaths is now nearly down to 500.

  For a deeper understanding of these numbers, see this post:https://t.co/ZXFERIyS6I pic.twitter.com/DyiKjmUW6S

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 28, 2020

  Florida remains the country’s biggest hotspot.

  Here’s the cartogram of the United States. Florida is currently dwarfing the other states. pic.twitter.com/pFRhw7rwnq

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 28, 2020

  The state has continued to refuse to report total hospitalization numbers, for some bizarre reason.

  Florida’s refusal to report current COVID-19 hospitalization numbers leaves us without a critical data point for one of the worst outbreaks of the summer surge. pic.twitter.com/XTzKg8cY7j

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 28, 2020

  Once again, the disclaimer: Due to increased testing, the outbreak earlier this year in the northeast was almost certainly more severe than the outbreak in the south and west, a fact underlined by the persistently falling death counts, which have defied warnings about an imminent turnaround (at least, so far), although several trusted officials including Dr. Gottlieb are warning about the risk that deaths could surge if the virus starts getting at the most vulernable among us once again.

  Despite the numbers you see here, more people were almost certainly infected at the peak of the spring outbreak than are infected now. Testing was strictly limited, and only caught a small % of cases.

  But if the trends continue, this surge could reach or surpass those levels. pic.twitter.com/gGCWL7OqDB

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 28, 2020

  Still, in just under two weeks, the number of cases reported in the south and west have doubled.

  In the South and West, the number of new cases reported per day has doubled since June 15. pic.twitter.com/D7gTdMA8Hq

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 28, 2020

  Here’s how today’s total compares with the past few days, and the past 5 Sundays…

  States reported 42k new cases today. The five highest days in our data are the last 5 days.

  Here are the number of new cases reported on the last 5 Sundays:

  6/21: 27,287
  6/14: 21,240
  6/7: 18,744
  5/31: 21,575
  5/24: 20,111 pic.twitter.com/OBKKaSShGI

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 28, 2020

  And for some added historical perspective.

  Plots show daily new cases vs time for some of the hardest hit spots in the US (as measured by new cases in the last two weeks).

  Florida takes 6 of the top 20 spots. Still no statewide mask laws.@DrEricDing

  More on TX, CA, FL, and AZ:https://t.co/kSFRE5UJ2M pic.twitter.com/6uXY4odtVk

  — Derrick VanGennep (@VanGennepD) June 28, 2020

  Texas positivity rate hit a new high at 14.3% as positivity rates remained high across the south and west.

  The positive rate continues to climb in the South and West.

  In the South, the percentage of tests coming back positive has roughly doubled in the last month. pic.twitter.com/oJBuCYn7ei

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 28, 2020

  Florida reported another record today as we mentioned earlier.

  Florida also reported a record number of cases today—close to 10k.

  Florida remains one of the few states that does not report how many people are currently hospitalized. pic.twitter.com/1k6DhZBtew

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 27, 2020

  But Arizona deserves the mantle of “most intense” outbreak given the positivity rate and “R” rate.

  Here’s a look at the weekly situation since April in Arizona, the state with the most intense outbreak right now. pic.twitter.com/t1gIKzDHbZ

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 27, 2020

  Georgia also reported a record high of nearly 2,000 new cases Sunday.

  Georgia also reported a record high in cases at almost 2000. The 7-day average for cases has nearly tripled since late May.

  Hospitalizations have also gone right back up after falling from May into June. pic.twitter.com/GUSMJYdmcM

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 27, 2020

  And Nevada more than doubled its previous record high.

  Nevada had never reported more than 500 cases in a day. Today, the state reported almost 1100. The positive rate and hospitalizations in the state are rising, too. pic.twitter.com/sp9bq8nG6J

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 27, 2020

  Nevada had never reported more than 500 cases in a day. Today, the state reported almost 1100. The positive rate and hospitalizations in the state are rising, too. pic.twitter.com/sp9bq8nG6J

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 27, 2020

  * * *

  Update (1730ET): We have some important updates on the COVID-19 front early this evening. The global death total, which was just 700 shy of the mark when we published our first Sunday morning update, has surpassed 500,000, just as the WHO, and pretty much everybody else who has been paying attention these last few months, expected.

  Over 10 million people have been diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, according to JHU data. The actual numbers are believed to be much higher due to uneven testing availability, not to mention suspicions of government interference on both the local and national level in many places. The exact number of deaths as of 1730ET was 500,108. One out of every 4 COVID-19 deaths confirmed around the world is in the US.

  For both cases and deaths, the US is presently the worst-affected country, with more than 2.5 million diagnosed cases and at least 125,747 deaths. Though Brazil is rapidly closing the gap, despite the surge in new US cases.

  Texas followed California on Sunday by reporting a smaller daily case total than the day before. Sunday’s number was also less than the 7-day average.

  Dallas County health officials reported 570 cases and one death Sunday, while Tarrant County reported 393 new cases and one death.

  Health officials reported more than 900 new coronavirus cases in Tarrant and Dallas counties on Sunday, with Dallas reporting a record 570 new cases for the county, a record high since the coronavirus outbreak began. Tarrant reported 393. Dallas County officials, after asking the governor to reinstate a statewide mask order, are now asking for a ‘stay at home’ order to be reimposed for Dallas County.

  * * *

  Update (1530ET): DHHS Secretary Alex Azar underscored the GOP shift toward taking the coronavirus outbreak more seriously, and moving away from a policy of tacitly encouraging Americans who rejected social distancing rules (after a set of polls showed President Trump falling behind Joe Biden, who hasn’t spoken publicly in weeks), when he declared on Sunday that “the window is closing” to stop the spread of the cornavirus in the South and the West before the deaths start to rise once again.

  In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis blamed the resurgence in new cases on 24-34 year olds in South Florida, especially the Miami–area, for  “socializing,” he said during a news briefing Sunday. While Florida’s decision to open bars has led to stories like the 16 friends who all got COVID-19 during their first night out in months, we wonder, what were south florida’s 24-34 year olds doing 2-4 weeks ago?

  DeSantis also blamed a “backlog in tests”, echoing his claim on Friday that a “testing dump” was largely responsible for the jump in new infections.

  Cities in Broward County will follow Miami Dade and close all its beaches for the July 4th weekend, between the 3rd and the 5th.

  Mayor @DeanTrantalis to host a media briefing at 4:30 pm today at A1A and Las Olas regarding the upcoming closure of beaches from July 3rd through July 5th. https://t.co/iXEhj2hJwU pic.twitter.com/gdVmJQSmRy

  — City of Fort Lauderdale (@FTLCityNews) June 28, 2020

  In California, Gov Gavin Newsm on Sunday ordered seven counties including LA to immediately close their bars and any their nightlife spots (clubs, etc), and recommended that 8 other counties take these actions on their own without necessitating a state order. That’s roughly a quarter of the state’s 58 counties. He cited the “raid spread of the virus in some parts of the state” as the reason for his decision, according to the LAT.

  The counties facing mandatory closures include: Los Angeles, Fresno, San Joaquin, Kings, Kern, Imperial and Tulare counties. The other eight counties are Contra Costa, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Santa Barbara and Stanislaus.

  Per the LAT, “…the decision by Newsom stands in contrast to recent decisions to leave more of the decision-making authority to local officials. The governor has said it is possible additional sectors of the state may need to scale back on openings, but has been hesitant to make those decisions in Sacramento.”

  The statewide case total topped 211,000 on Sunday, as the rate of daily cases slowed. Hospitalizations and infection rates are also rising, and officials cite several likely factors including reopenings, people having private social gatherings, and the recent protests over George Floyd’s death while in police custody.

  On Friday, Newsom said he was recommending that Imperial County reinstitute more strict stay-at-home orders, as it continued to see the highest positivity rate and per-capita infection rate in the state, though no actions have yet been taken. In San Bernardino, officials have warned that hospitals are approaching “surge capacity” and are making plans to open “alternate” sites.

  In Latin America, Chile – home of the 3rd biggest outbreak in the region – reported 4,216 new cases of coronavirus and 162 new deaths Sunday, per Chile’s Health Minister Enrique Paris. Paris praised the effort made by the Chilean people to comply with lockdown procedures, but warned that the numbers would likely keep going up.

  In Texas, finally, Gov Greg Abbott warned Sunday during a press briefing in Dallas where he was accompanied by VP Pence that the outbreak in his state had taken a “swift and dangerous” turn.

  Texas Gov. Greg Abbott says the coronavirus “has taken a very swift and very dangerous turn in Texas over just the past few weeks” https://t.co/vJ0OnqE4PN pic.twitter.com/5hV3plL1wx

  — CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) June 28, 2020

  Pence added: “I want to commend the governor for your decisive action reopening this economy.”

  * * *

  Update (1320ET): California reported a slowdown in new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, likely due to the typical slowdown in new cases seen over the weekend.

  • CALIFORNIA COVID-19 CASES RISE 2.3% VS 2.8% 7-DAY AVERAGE

  As cases continue to surge in Florida, CNN reports that Miami Beach’s mayor has called for a special commission meeting on Monday to discuss mask usage compliance as millions of Floridians seemingly eschew social distancing requirements.

  Tune in tomorrow, June 29, for a Special Commission meeting as the Mayor & City Commission discuss mask usage & compliance measures at 10 AM.

  To participate/provide comment join here: https://t.co/So0nlU5mkw pic.twitter.com/vN7ODeXUAr

  — City of Miami Beach (@MiamiBeachNews) June 28, 2020

  Meanwhile, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Sunday that a rise in deaths and hospitalizations is “an appropriate thing” to be concerned about, a sentiment that was echoed by Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former FDA Commissioner under Trump who has become a frequent guest on CNBC and other channels. The doctor told CBS Sunday that we’re “likely to see total daily deaths start to go back up again.”

  South of the border, Mexico reported 4,410 new cases, bringing the total case count for the country to 212,802. There were also 602 additional deaths on Saturday, bringing the country’s death toll to 26,381.

  * * *

  Update (1250ET): Arizona just reported 3,858 new cases on Sunday, a new record high, and the 7th time in the past 10 days that the number of new infections has topped 3k. The percent positive rate climbed to 9.6%. The state also reported 9 new deaths.

  Maricopa County, where Phoenix is situated as the county seat, remains the most hard-hit county in the state by far.

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  According to the AP, some Arizona hospitals have started activating their COVID surge plans to make more room for COVID-19 patients as cases and hospitalizations surge, while deaths remain low.

  * * *

  Update (1145ET): Sunday has already brought the US a handful of major coronavirus-related headlines. While Florida’s total newly confirmed cases released Sunday declined slightly from the record number reported the day before, the state as a whole cemented its largest weekly increase yet, with 43,784 new cases reported over the past week, according to an analysis of state data by the Orlando Sentinel.

  Here’s a chart of daily cases including Sunday’s print of 8,530, which is less than Friday’s total of 8,942, and Saturday’s record 9,858.

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  From Sunday to Sunday, Florida recorded 43,784. Only 258 deaths were reported in that time, and 282,909 tests were administered, the most tests administered in a single week.

  The state health department has now counted 141,075 positive cases since the outbreak began, with a death toll of 3,419, up 29 from the day before. It has also tracked 14,244 hospitalizations, up 108 from Saturday’s report.

  The latest statewide update on Sunday showed that 12.4% of those tested came back positive, lower than a record 15.9% recorded earlier this week. The health department tabulates the percent positive figure by taking the number of people who test positive for the first time and dividing that number by the total number tested that day. Critics, including a whistleblower publishing her own alternative set of data, have argued that the state should exclude people who aren’t testing negative for the first time from the total tested. Some nurses and other workers are tested weekly. By refusing to remove these people from the count, the state is artificially lowering its percent positive number, critics say.

  New York State reported another record on Sunday when Gov Cuomo revealed that just five people had died in the past day, a record low.

  Today’s update on the numbers:

  61,906 tests were performed yesterday. 616 tests came back positive (0.99% of total).

  Total hospitalizations fell to 869.

  Sadly, there were 5 COVID fatalities yesterday. pic.twitter.com/l9XHU0kbpN

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) June 28, 2020

  Cuomo is still facing a deluge of criticism led by the WSJ editorial board, which claimed over the weekend that NY’s decision to send COVID-19-positive patients back to nursing homes was the single biggest policy blunder of the entire US outbreak.

  * * *

  The global coronavirus total topped 10 million late Saturday night in the US as a handful of Asian nations reported their case totals for Sunday morning, finally pushing the total over the top. To be sure, there are likely millions of cases that have gone uncounted. But reaching the eight-figure mark is certainly an important psychological milestone, particularly since daily totals for new cases continue to climb.

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  Roughly a quarter of these cases have been confirmed in the US, which has seen its case total pass 2.5 million, while US deaths are ~125k. JHU counted 499,342 deaths globally as of 1030ET on Sunday.

  As more Republicans turn on President Trump and press him to step up and “lead”, or risk allowing Joe Biden to win the election without leaving the basement, the Atlantic-run (and Laurene Powell Jobs-funded) COVID-19 Tracking Project has made an interesting point.

  The number of cases confirmed during the outbreak in the northeast represents only a small portion of the total, while the timing of the outbreak in the south and west means more of the actual case total is being captured.

  It’s important to remember that diagnostic testing only captured a small % of the actual infections in the Northeast outbreak.

  Though we are setting records for *confirmed cases* — there were almost certainly more total infections at the spring peak than there are right now. pic.twitter.com/fZfu8AqHTf

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 27, 2020

  With that in mind, even when it comes to the number of cases being reported daily, the current outbreak probably isn’t as severe as the outbreaks we saw in New York City and the Greater New York area (and surrounding states), even though the daily US national case totals are ~technically~ at fresh all-time highs.

  The US saw ~43k new cases reported yesterday, a near-record total and the second straight (some say fourth-straight) day of 40k+ cases.

  States reported ~43k new cases today, a near record.
  These numbers are a result of increased testing capturing the rapid spread of the virus across a large swath of the country. pic.twitter.com/HeMIiYVMOq

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 27, 2020

  Another round of rumors about Dr. Fauci being “muzzled” by the White House (despite the fact that he just made another round of interviews) is hitting on Sunday. At this point, the stories are nothing new.

  Testing has remained above 500k tests a day, a sign that testing has continued to improve (perhaps more ‘protesters’ are finally taking Gov Cuomo’s advice and getting tested?) despite President Trump’s remarks about trying to slow testing during the early days of the epidemic (there’s no evidence he did, though the sentiment isn’t exactly encouraging).

  Our daily update is published. States reported 591k completed tests today.

  The nation hadn’t ever hit 500k tests in a day before June, and has now surpassed that number 9 of the past 10 days.

  For details, see: https://t.co/PZrmH4bl5Y pic.twitter.com/riLqzU8WPe

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 27, 2020

  Deaths declined for the fourth day in a row, according to the numbers reported yesterday (which – remember – are reported with a 24-hour delay).

  Deaths have continued to fall, even as cases and hospitalizations spike across the South and West.

  Here’s what we do and don’t know about the death trends: https://t.co/ZXFERIyS6I pic.twitter.com/MiUJmyD4aN

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 27, 2020

  Florida reported a record jump in cases yesterday, its second record increase in a row, and at least the third in the past five days.

  Florida also reported a record number of cases today—close to 10k.

  Florida remains one of the few states that does not report how many people are currently hospitalized. pic.twitter.com/1k6DhZBtew

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 27, 2020

  Outside of the US, perhaps the biggest news overnight arrives from China, where the Xiongan New Area south of Beijing has been locked down on Saturday, with measures including closing villages, communities and buildings to anyone who doesn’t legally reside in the area, . Hebei province surrounds the federally administered capital city of Beijing. More than half a million people have been placed on a strict lockdown due to this latest outbreak.

  Beijing has ramped up coronavirus testing efforts and has tested about one-third of the capital city’s population. It’s believe this outbreak is an extension of the cases stemming from the Xinfadi food market in southwestern Beijing, detected earlier this month.

  As of midnight in the US on Sunday, Beijing had run nearly 8 million tests according to, Zhang Qiang, an official from the Beijing municipal committee.

  The governor Australia’s second-most-populous state said Sunday that his government is considering targeted stay-at-home orders and locking down suburbs to contain coronavirus clusters in Melbourne. Australia reported 53 new cases on Sunday, 49 of them in Victoria, which raised the country’s total to 7,686 cases and 104 deaths. The latest cluster comes as Australia and neighboring New Zealand had mostly eradicated the virus. Victoria, the state which Melbourne serves as the capital, has reported new cases during 5 of the last 6 days, and was regularly reporting 0 cases a day as recently as June 9. About 40k residents of the state have been tested since Friday.

  Iran is also struggling through a rebound in cases, and the hard-hit country is making masks mandatory in public. But the WHO on Sunday declared that the Philippines has seen the fastest increase in COVID-19 cases in the Western Pacific region. According to GMA News Online, between June 16 and 28, the total number of new cases in the Philippines was 9,655; that’s nearly 4x Singapore, which came in second with 2,610 new cases.

  

• Futures Slide In Early Trading
  Futures Slide In Early Trading
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 18:33

  In a repeat of last Sunday’s gloomy open (which had fully reversed overnight with futures nice and green by morning), futures slumped after reopening at 6pm with two key catalysts emerging: i) coronavirus deaths around the world topped half a million and infections continued to mount in American states, coupled with ii) concerns about the growing advertiser boycott of Facebook.

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  S&P 500 futures opened below 3,000, just as they did last Sunday, sliding to 2,988, or 0.6% lower, alongside oil and the dollar, while gold rose. However, there was some comfort over the weekend from the latest Chinese “data” which showed local industrial production growth was +6.0% yoy in May compared with -4.3% yoy in April, the first positive year-over-year growth since the virus outbreak as downstream industries continued to see stronger profit growth compared with upstream industries, and overall profit margins widened in May (that said, by now we doubt anyone believes any Chinese reporting).

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  Offsetting this boost to sentiment were growing fears about Facebook’s revenue base as a growing number of advertisers have announced intentions to halt spending on social media, undermining the company’s sales outlook and putting its stock price under further pressure. A partial list of the companies that have said they’re curtailing ad spending on Facebook and its peers is shown below:

  • Unilever
  • Verizon
  • Hershey’s
  • Honda
  • The North Face
  • Ben & Jerry’s
  • REI
  • Patagonia
  • Eddie Bauer
  • Upwork
  • Mozilla
  • Magnolia Pictures
  • Birchbox
  • Dashlane
  • TalkSpace
  • LendingClub

  Bloomberg writes that “as more brands publicize plans to join boycotts or otherwise rein in ad spending, Facebook shares remain under pressure. The stock tumbled 8.3% Friday after Unilever, one of the world’s largest advertisers, said it would halt spending on Facebook properties this year, eliminating $56 billion in market value and shaving the net worth of Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg by more than $7 billion. Shares closed at $216.08 Friday after reaching a record $242.24 the preceding Tuesday.”

  While no single company can significantly dent growth at Facebook, which generated $17.7 billion in revenue last quarter alone, a rising tally adds to pressure on other brands to follow suit, and when combined with a pandemic-fueled economic slowdown, the threat to Facebook deepens.

  “Given the amount of noise this is drawing, this will have significant impact to Facebook’s business,” Wedbush Securities analyst Bradley Gastwirth wrote in a research note. “Facebook needs to address this issue quickly and effectively in order to stop advertising exits from potentially spiraling out of control.”

  Facebook aside, the continued emergence of the coronavirus in several US hotspots has been the dominant theme for short-term sentiment. As of this weekend, global confirmed cases have now topped 10mln worldwide with the death toll nearing 500,000. As such, Amplify Trading writes that “it remains critical to remain vigilant for further updates with the daily US case numbers… now a main feature of the daily calendar. Below is a snaphot of the total cases and deaths in the United States as of 28th June 2020 via the NYTimes.”

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  Amid the growing uncertainty from the rising number of covid infections and fears about Facebook’s tech dominance, last week’s risk-off stance could endure.

  Of course, central banks are on their way: as Bloomberg notes, China’s central bank said it will implement new monetary tools to make sure liquidity reaches the real economy. The People’s Bank of China said it will increase the proportion of smaller company, credit and manufacturing loans, and continue to lower lending rates, while reiterating that it will keep the yuan stable.

  Looking ahead, here are some of the key events and features to keep a close eye on, courtesy of Amplify Trading:

  Payrolls & Powell

  US Markets are closed on Friday due to the July 4th Independence Day holiday. As such, the latest US jobs report will be released on Thursday and I would make a mental note that the week as a whole will be somewhat front-loaded. Recent US economic indicators in the US have continued to surprise to the upside with the Citi Economic Surprise Index standing at a record high.

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  Expectations are that the US has added another 3.074mln jobs in the last month with unemployment expected to decrease once again to 12.3% from 13.3%.

  However, I think it would be unwise to take these figures on face value as with an emerging second wave virus across several of the largest US states, in addition to the methodology quirks that have under reported the true level of unemployment, I think the data will do little to change markets current thinking.

  Analysts at ING also note that average hourly earnings will fall sharply, but this is a statistical effect caused by lots of relatively low earning workers regaining employment, dragging the “average” level of hourly wages lower – therefore, it is meaningless.

  On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to testify again in Washington with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about the stimulus and lending facilities to support the economy in the pandemic. Although unlikely to be a market moving event it may give some indication as to the timing and appetite towards further stimulus measures from the US government following Trump’s comments last week that he favoured sending Americans another stimulus check..

  Meanwhile, Wednesday night sees the release of the latest FOMC minutes which will be srutinised for any insights as to the risks to the recovery and what methods the central bank may adopt if the situation were to change.

  Is Trump already too far behind Biden?

  This was the headline from the FT’s Big Read this weekend and comes in the context of Biden holding a 9.4 point lead in the Real Clear Politics Average poll of polls.

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  The FT article explains how Trump’s ratings have nosedived as he has been criticised over his handling of the lockdown and the reaction to the killing of George Floyd. This has led to the President hitting the road again holding rallies in Oklahoma and Arizona, the latter being a crucial political pawn given the recent rise in COVID cases and a key battleground in the upcoming election.

  By comparison, Biden has been hunkering down and in a similar tactic in what we saw the former Labour leader Jermey Corbyn deploy against Theresa May during the initial Brexit negotiations, he appears content to let Trump self-harm until these political hot potatoes cool off. The problem comes when, at some point, Biden will need to emerge and confront the combative President and therein lies the problem in my mind.

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  The FT notes that Biden has struggled to excite the Obama coalition of the young and people of colour and that is right where Trump has already been targeting the democrat candidate in numerous jibes and memes.

  Although people are fully aware of Trump’s diversion and deflection tactics on Twitter, I still believe that this direct and unfilered line of communication is as effective as ever for the US President.

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  For now, my view is that the wound of division post the financial crisis never truly healed and the pandemic has only further amplified the underlying inequalities that exist in American society today. Although this should be the catalyst for change, I think it will only polarise the ‘law-and-order’ narrative over the coming months, whether that be against the protestors or the Chinese virus. As a result, I still see Trump winning the election come November, despite what the polls indicate as of today.

  I asked my Twitter followers this weekend what they thought – this was the result:

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  Growing challenges in China

  The Chinese central bank said on Sunday that the country’s economic growth faces challenges from the global coronavirus pandemic, despite signs of improvement amid business re-openings. The cautious observation comes ahead of the official manufacturing PMI data for June scheduled for release on Tuesday, which is expected at 50.6.

  Despite the headline figure reflecting an expansion of the manufacturing sector, many analysts have begun to question the strength of the recent bounce back in confidence as the rest of the world continues to grapple with rising COVID cases and the subsequent impact on orders for Chinese products.

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  Not only this, reports in the SCMP this weekend say that a county in northern China (Anxin) has been “sealed off” with its 400,000 residents placed under tight restrictions after more than a dozen Covid-19 cases were reported – all linked to the Xinfadi market cluster in Beijing.

  CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS via newsquawk

  Monday

  • Data: Japanese Retail Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence (Final), Economic Sentiment, German CPI (Prelim)
  • Speakers: Fed’s Daly, Williams, BoE’s Bailey & Vlieghe, ECB’s Schnabel

  Tuesday

  • Data: Japanese Unemployment, Chinese NB Official Manufacturing PMI, UK GDP, EZ CPI (Flash), Canadian GDP, US Consumer Confidence
  • Speakers: Fed’s Powell & US Treasury’s Mnuchin Testify, Williams & Brainard, BoE’s Haldane & Cunliffe, ECB’s de Guindos, RBA’s Debelle
  • Supply: Germany

  Wednesday

  • Data: Japanese Tankan, Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Final), German Retail Sales, Unemployment & Manufacturing PMI, EZ, UK & US Manufacturing PMI (Final), US ADP & ISM Manufacturing
  • Events: Riksbank Rate Decision, FOMC Minutes
  • Speakers: ECB’s Panetta, BoE’s Haskel
  • Supply: UK

  Thursday

  • Data: US Labour Market Report, Initial Jobless Claims & Factory Orders
  • Speakers: ECB’s Mersch & Schnabel
  • Supply: French & UK

  Friday

  • Data: Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance, EZ & UK Services & Composite PMIs (Final)
  • Speakers: ECB’s Knot
  • Holiday: US Independence Day

  

• Bears Capitulate: Institutions Hammered With 3rd Biggest Short Squeeze In History
  Bears Capitulate: Institutions Hammered With 3rd Biggest Short Squeeze In History
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 18:30

  After three months of relentless contrarian bearishness by institutional investors, even as retail investors first, and hedge funds subsequently (latest HF net leverage is 99%-ile) flooded into stocks, large institutions such as vanilla mutual funds and pensions finally capitulated to the Fed which is now openly pushing stock prices higher. In the CFTC’s latest weekly futures data, the amount of net short covering of Emini futures among non-commercial speculative investors exploded, and was the biggest since 2007 and the third highest on record.

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  As a result, in the week ended June 23, ES net specs surged to -97,078 from -303,305 which was the biggest ES net short position since the Sept 2011 US credit rating downgrade. The collapse in short exposure of more than 206K contracts was the third biggest on record, and was surpassed only by two short-squeezes observed right around the time of the great quant crash in the summer of 2007.

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  Were capitulating institutions the latest to ring the bell at the top of the market? It certainly seems like it: according to Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte, both consolidated….

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  … discretionary and systematic strategies, have all turned decidedly more bullish in recent days after mostly ignoring the recent market ramp.

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  That said, Risk Parity funds continue to lag re-entering the market, which means that after suffering substantial losses on the way down, RP funds such as Bridgewater have failed to recover losses on the upside.

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  The same thing appears true for CTAs, which as we reported last week, have been flip-flopping on either side of bullish or bearish in recent months.

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  Curiously, the general chaos and lack of directionality across markets means that CTAs have zero conviction about any assets class, not just stocks, with bonds, USD, gold and oil all at roughly 0% exposure.

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  Incidentally, as MacroCharts showed after we first pointed out this surge in short covering, the last time we observed such a dramatic move higher in net short exposure – which is basically an unwind of downside hedges – the market predictably tumbled. We doubt this time will be different.

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  And what’s worse: at least in 2007 there was liquidity as markets were still markets, not reliant on the Fed to backstop even a modest 5% drop. Now, between HFTs that turn off at the smallest sign of trouble, and asset managers who go bidless the moments there is a -1000 TICK, liquidity is non-existant. Which is why all that would take to trigger the next crash is some concerted selling.

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• As COVID-19 Cases Spike Nationally, Black Lives Matter Plans More Rallies, Marches
  As COVID-19 Cases Spike Nationally, Black Lives Matter Plans More Rallies, Marches
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 18:00

  Authored by Daniel Payne via JustTheNews.com,

  Though coronavirus cases are surging in some parts of the United States, many Black Lives Matter activists are nonetheless planning sizable rallies in the near future, defying public health concerns in favor of continuing what has become a month-long streak of aggressive public activism. 

  The surge in coronavirus cases in some parts of the country — especially Texas, Arizona and Florida — has brought with it renewed fears that any form of reopening states after months of lockdowns will bring a new wave of COVID-19 infections.

  The governors of Texas and Florida imposed fresh restrictions on residents this week in response to rising cases in their states, while other governors such as Washington’s Jay Inslee mandated that all state residents must wear face masks while out in public. 

  In spite of those mounting concerns, multiple chapters of Black Lives Matter across the country are still planning rallies and marches, even as officials urge residents to refrain from gathering in large groups. 

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  ‘Community visioning, education, and mobilization’

  One chapter, Black Lives Matter Michigan, is hosting a “protest & rally” at the Michigan State Capitol in Lansing on Monday. That event promises “community visioning, education, and mobilization to #DefendBlackLives.” Its Facebook page shows nearly 600 confirmed attendees and 2,800 “interested” in attending,

  The event urges attendees to create signs with slogans on them such as “defund the police,” “invest the funds in the Black community,” and “declare racism a public health emergency in Michigan.”

  In Minneapolis, meanwhile, a consortium of groups including the Chicago chapter of Black Lives Matter, has planned for a July 12 rally called the “National Mother’s March.” The group specifically invites “families (mothers, fathers, grandmothers, Aunts, Uncles, sisters, brothers spouses, significant others anyone) that have lost loved ones to police violence” to attend. 

  An “educational gathering” taking place that weekend will offer participants a host of workshops on subjects such as “the history and role of the police in US society;” “tools for organizing against police violence;” “DO’s and DON’T’s of organizing for families dealing with a more recent loss of a loved one;” and numerous other topics.

  In Philadelphia on Sunday, a “Rally for Political Prisoners” will take place in the city’s Malcolm X Park. That event, which will be co-hosted by Black Lives Matter Philly and six other groups, has just over 200 confirmed attendees, though nearly 1,000 more are “interested” in going. 

  The rally will “center the lives and stories of our Political Prisoners in Pennsylvania and incarcerated people as we struggle to defund the police, dismantle the Fraternal Order Police and Abolish Policing,” the Facebook event states. 

  Citing the recent removal of former Philadelphia mayor and police commissioner Frank Rizzo, the description continues: “Now that the statue has been brought down, let’s bring home [Rizzo’s] victims.”

  A spokeswoman for Black Lives Matter Philly said the group “ask[s] participant to wear masks at every action we plan.”

  “We actively pass out masks, sanitizer, and wear gloves when we distribute items,” she said. “We’re very aware and cautious about risk with COVID-19.”

  She added that one of the group’s supporters recently mailed the activists 500 masks to pass out to participants at rallies and marches.

  On July 4, meanwhile, Black Lives Matter Boston will host an event called the “Say Her Name March & Rally.”

  Participants will “gather to center and uplift the lives of ALL Black womxn in a march from Nubian Square to Boston Common, followed by a celebratory rally in the Common where we will share music, food, the arts.”

  Nearly 300 participants are scheduled to go, while 2,000 have signaled an interest. 

  ‘Avoid large gatherings’

  The rallies, protests and marches that have rolled throughout the country over the past several weeks broke a months-long moratorium on large public gatherings throughout the United States. Sporting events, concerts, symposiums, conferences and other densely packed affairs were almost entirely cancelled from mid-March onwards, while restaurants and other popular gathering spots were all largely shuttered. 

  Federal, state and local politicians from the start of the outbreak aggressively promoted “social distancing” measures, urging and often mandating that citizens avoid each other, shelter in place and refrain from getting together outside of household family units. 

  Following the emergence of the protests after the police-involved death of Minneapolis resident George Floyd, however, political leaders rapidly shifted their rhetoric, coming out in tacit and sometimes outward support of the huge, densely crowded demonstrations that spread throughout the United States.

  That apparent double standard was checked this week in a New York federal court, when a judge declared that Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio had unfairly discriminated against religious worshippers while giving preferential government sanction to protesters. 

  Though most authorities appear reluctant to criticize the large gatherings, Facebook in its event listings for the upcoming demonstrations still urges potential participants to stay away from them. 

  “It’s up to all of us to slow the spread of COVID-19,” a Facebook warning declares atop each event.

  “Everyone, including young and healthy people, should avoid large gatherings during this time.”

  

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• Escobar: Why Iran Won't Be Broken
  Escobar: Why Iran Won’t Be Broken
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 00:00

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

  So what’s goin’ on in Iran? How did the Islamic Republic really respond to Covid-19? How is it coping with Washington’s relentless “maximum pressure”?

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  These questions were the subject of a long phone call I placed to Prof. Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran – one of Iran’s premier, globally recognized analysts.

  As Marandi explains:

  “Iran after the revolution was all about social justice. It set up a very elaborate health care network, similar to Cuba’s, but with more funding. A large hospital network. When the coronavirus hit, the US was even preventing Iran to get test kits. Yet the system – not the private sector – managed. There was no full shutdown. Everything was under control. The numbers – even contested by the West – they do hold. Iran is now producing everything it needs, tests, face masks. None of the hospitals are full.”

  Expanding Marandi’s observations, Tehran-based journalist Alireza Hashemi notes, “Iran’s wide primary healthcare system, comprising public clinics, health houses and health centers is available in thousands of cities and villages”, and that enabled the government to “easily offer basic services”.

  As Hashemi details, “the Health Ministry established a Covid-19 call center and also distributed protective equipment supplied by relief providers. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei ordered the armed forces to help – with the government deploying 300,000 soldiers and volunteers to disinfect streets and public places, distribute sanitizers and masks and conduct tests.”

  It was the Iranian military that established production lines for producing face masks and other equipment. According to Hashemi, “some NGOs partnered with Tehran’s chamber of commerce to create a campaign called Nafas (“breath”) to supply medical goods and provide clinical services. Iran’s Farabourse, an over-the-counter stock market in Tehran, established a crowd funding campaign to purchase medical devices and products to help health workers. Hundreds of volunteer groups – called “jihadi” – started producing personal protective equipment that had been in short supply in seminaries, mosques and hussainiyas and even natural fruit juices for health workers.”

  This sense of social solidarity is extremely powerful in Shi’ite culture. Hashemi notes that “the government loosened health-related restrictions over a month ago and we have been experiencing a small slice of normality in recent weeks.” Yet the fight is not over. As in the West, there are fears of a covid-19 second wave.

  Marandi stresses the economy, predictably, was hurt:

  “But because of the sanctions, most of the hurt had already happened. The economy is now running without oil revenue. In Tehran, you don’t even notice it. It’s nothing compared to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey or the UAE. Workers from Pakistan and India are leaving the Persian Gulf in droves. Dubai is dead. So, in comparison, Iran did better in dealing with the virus. Moreover, harvests last year and this year have been positive. We are more self-reliant.”

  Hashemi adds a very important factor:

  “The Covid-19 crisis was so massive that people themselves have pitched in with effort, revealing new levels of solidarity. Individuals, civil society groups and others have set up a range of initiatives seeking to help the government and health workers on the front line of countering the pandemic.”

  What a relentless Western disinformation campaign always ignores is how Iran after the revolution is used to extremely critical situations, starting with the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Marandi and Hashemi are adamant: for older Iranians, the current economic crisis pales in comparison with what they had to put up with throughout the 1980s.

  Made in Iran soars

  Marandi’s analysis ties up the economic data. In early June, Mohammad Bagher Nobakht – responsible for planning Iran’s state budgets – told the Majlis (Parliament) that the new normal was “to sideline oil in the economy and run the country’s programs without oil.”

  Nobakht stuck to the numbers. Iran had earned just $8.9 billion from the sale of oil and related products in 2019-20, down from a peak of $119 billion less than a decade ago.

  The whole Iranian economy is in transition. What’s particularly interesting is the boom in manufacturing – with companies focusing way beyond Iran’s large domestic market towards exports. They are turning the massive devaluation of the rial to their advantage.

  In 2019-20, Iran’s non-oil exports reached $41.3 billion. That exceeded oil exports for the first time in Iran’s post-revolutionary history. And roughly half of these non-oil exports were manufactured goods. Team Trump’s “maximum pressure” via sanctions may have led to total non-oil exports going down – but only by 7%. The total remains near historic highs.

  According to Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data published by the Iran Chamber of Commerce, private sector manufacturers were seriously back in business already in the first month following the relaxation of the partial lockdown.

  The fact is Iranian consumer goods and industrial products – everything from cookies to stainless steel – are exported by small and medium enterprises to the wider Middle East and also to Central Asia, China and Russia. The myth of Iranian “isolation” is, well, a myth.

  Some new manufacturing clusters bode well for the future. Take titanium – essential for myriad applications in military, aerospace, marine industries and industrial processes. The Qara-Aghaj mine in Urmia, the provincial capital of West Azarbaijan, which is part of Iran’s mineral belt, including the country’s largest gold reserves, has tremendous potential.

  Iran features in the Top 15 of mineral-rich countries. In January, after getting the technology for deep-level mining, Tehran launched a pilot project for extraction of rare earth minerals.

  Still, Washington pressure remains as relentless as the Terminator.

  In January, the White House issued yet another executive order targeting the “construction, mining, manufacturing, or textiles sectors of the Iranian economy.” So Team Trump is targeting exactly the booming private sector – which means, in practice, countless Iranian blue-collar workers and their families. This has nothing to do with forcing the Rouhani administration to say, “I can’t breathe”.

  The Venezuelan front

  Apart from a few scuffles between the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Health Ministry about China’s response to Covid-19, the Iran-China “comprehensive strategic partnership” (CSP) remains on track.

  The next big test is actually in September. That’s when Team Trump wants to extend the UN arms embargo on Iran. Add to it the threat to trigger the snapback mechanism inbuilt in UNSC resolution 2231 – if other Security Council members refuse to support Washington and let the embargo expire for good in October.

  China’s mission at the UN has stressed the obvious. The Trump administration unilaterally abandoned the JCPOA. Then it reimposed unilateral sanctions. Thus it has no right to extend the arms embargo or go for the snapback mechanism against Iran.

  China, Russia and Iran are the three key nodes of Eurasia integration. Politically and diplomatically, their key decisions tend to be taken in concert. So it’s no wonder that was reiterated last week in Moscow at the meeting of Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Javad Zarif – who get along famously.

  Lavrov said, “We will be doing everything so that no one can destroy these agreements. Washington has no right to punish Iran.”

  Zarif for his part described the whole juncture as “very dangerous”.

  Additional conversations with Iranian analysts reveal how they interpret the regional geopolitical chessboard, calibrating the importance of the axis of resistance (Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Hezbollah) in comparison with two other fronts: the US and its “stooges” (the House of Saud, UAE, Egypt), the master – Israel – and also Turkey and Qatar, which, like Iran, but unlike the “stooges”, favor political Islam (but of the Sunni variety, that is, the Moslem Brotherhood).

  One of these analysts, pen name Blake Archer Williams, significantly remarks, “the main reason Russia holds back from helping Iran (mutual trade is almost at zero) is that it fears Iran. If Trump does not have a Reagan moment and does not prevail on Iran, and the US is in any event driven out of the Middle East by the continuing process of Iran’s weapons parity and its ability to project power in its own pond, then all of the oil of the Middle East, from the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, to Iraq, of course, and not least to the oilfields in Saudi Arabia’s Qatif region (where all the oil is and is 100% Shi’ite), will come under the umbrella of the axis of resistance.”

  Still, Russia-China continue to back Iran on all fronts, for instance rebuking the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for giving in to US “bullying” – as the IAEA’s board last week passed a resolution submitted by France, Britain and Germany criticizing Iran for the first time since 2012.

  Another key foreign policy front is Venezuela. Tehran’s soft power, in quite a spectacular manner keenly observed all across the Global South, de facto ridiculed Washington’s sanctions/blockade in its own Monroe Doctrine “backyard”, when five Iranian tankers loaded with gasoline successfully crossed the Atlantic and were received by a Venezuelan military escort of jets, helicopters, and naval patrols.

  That was in fact a test run. The Oil Ministry in Tehran is already planning a round two of deliveries to Caracas, sending two or three cargos full of gasoline a month. That will also help Iran to offload its huge domestically produced fuel.

  The historic initial shipment was characterized by both sides as part of a scientific and industrial cooperation, side by side with a “solidarity action”.

  And then, this past week, I finally confirmed it. The order came directly from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. In his own words: “The blockade must be broken”. The rest is – Global South – history in the making.

  

• China Unveils World's First Robotic And Contactless Restaurant  
  China Unveils World’s First Robotic And Contactless Restaurant  
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 23:30

  We could be looking at one of the world’s first-ever robotic restaurants, located in Guangdong, China. The timely opening of the contactless restaurant comes as the industry is hell-bent on reducing human-to-human contact due to virus transmission risks. 

  The Qianxi Robot Catering Group, a subsidiary of Country Garden, recently announced in a press release that is has opened up a robot-powered restaurant in the city of Shunde in China’s Guangdong province.

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  “Powered by the latest in advanced technologies, the restaurant has separate sections for Chinese food, hot pot, and fast food and features a wide selection of dishes, each one of which is delivered to the waiting diner within seconds,” the release states. 

  The restaurant has more than 20 robots capable of preparing up to 200 menu items that can be served in as little as 20 seconds. Many of the dishes are Chinese cuisine, clay pot rice, and noodles.

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  Though the release wasn’t specific on robot tasks in the kitchen, there is a fleet of pink server robots on the front-end of the restaurant that delivers dishes to patrons. 

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  As the virus pandemic continues to rage, robot-run restaurants are taking off across the world. We noted Friday, fast-food chain Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) debuted the “restaurant of the future,” where automation and food lockers dominate the storefront. 

  Zhao Chunsheng, a robot specialist and professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said: “The Qianxi robot restaurant has innovatively achieved both software-hardware integration and man-machine cooperation. It helps to better run a smooth operation through the practical application of robots.” 

  “Qianxi has the most advanced technology with a vast product lineup. It fills the market gap and will have a significant impact on benchmarking in adding value to industry development as well,” Chunsheng said. 

  Country Garden’s robo-restaurant could be one of the world’s first automated eateries. We’ve noted kitchens have partially delegated some tasks to robots, such as flippy, the robot hamburger chef, blended with some human interaction. 

  The pandemic has undoubtedly accelerated the automation phase of restaurants worldwide – recent studies we’ve cited indicate that robots and artificial intelligence will displace tens of millions of jobs by 2030. 

  

• 2020 Election Will Be A Contest Of The Angry
  2020 Election Will Be A Contest Of The Angry
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 23:00

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via RealClearPolitics.com,

  The old 2020 election was supposed to be about many familiar issues. It is not any more.

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  Up until now, the candidates themselves would supposedly be the story in November. The left had cited Trump’s tweets and erratic firings as windows into his dark soul.

  The right had replied that an addled and befuddled Joe Biden was not really a candidate at all.

  Instead he was a mere facsimile who would have to be carried to the Election Day on the shoulders of the Democratic party, only shortly to fade away.

  Then a radical vice president soon could implement a hard-left agenda by succession what she could not through election.

  Issues themselves are no longer likely to decide the election either. Not long ago progressives argued that the miracle Trump economy was in shambles, done in by plague, quarantine and riot.

  They thundered that it was what you would expect from Trump’s innate chaos — a mess that would have to be invented if it had not existed.

  The right had countered that deregulation, energy development, tax reform and reindustrialization that made America Great would make American Great — Again.

  For all of 2019 and 2020, Democrats had claimed that a calm abroad would return with a Biden win. They talked of reestablishing the influence of postwar American-led diplomacy, soft power, traditional alliances, transnational organizations and the United Nations.

  Trump Republicans believed all that was more the problem, not the solution. They argued that America’s relationships with NATO, China and the European Union were now at least founded on reality, not dangerous fantasies and stale bromides.

  Trump opponents saw the November election as a return to Washington normality: no more fights with the press, no more paranoia of a deep state, no more dissident generals, canned FBI leaders or exasperated CIA officials.

  Trump’s base instead had seen the November election as the last chance to drain the federal swamp of careerists, apparatchiks, corporate flunkies and various grifters.

  These unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats, lobbyists and revolving-door functionaries over the prior decades had hacked at the Bill of Rights, stagnated the economy, mired the nation in endless winless wars and mortgaged the country to China.

  But that conundrum is ancient history now.

  For nearly a month, the nation has been consumed by massive protests and chronic riots, looting and arson.

  The catalyst for the demonstrations — the violent and wrongful death of African American George Floyd while in the custody of Minneapolis police — is itself fading from connections with the ensuing upheavals.

  Statues are toppled. Names are abruptly changed. Careers cancelled.

  Police are both reviled — and walking off the job. Retired generals are no longer seen as conservative traditionalists but radicals themselves who dare to take on the commander-in-chief.

  Downtown Seattle is no longer in the control of the city government.

  The internet is aflame with self-appointed sleuths. They scour hours of video, and millions of words, searching for an indiscreet past remark — as fodder to take out a political opponent, a rival for a job or a personal enemy.

  The people’s energy, tranquilized by a two-month national quarantine and terror of the coronavirus, has suddenly exploded in both massive protests and silent seething at the lawlessness.

  The result is that for good or evil, the 2020 election is no longer really about Biden and Trump, Democratic or Republican policies, or progressive and conservative agendas.

  No, it is now about America as it has been before May 2020 — always flawed, but constantly improving, and not perfect but far better than the alternatives — and what has now followed.

  Much of the country believes that America is racist, cruel and incapable of self-correction of its so-called original sins — without a radical erasure of much of its past history, traditions and customs.

  It sees occasional violence as a necessary stimulant of long overdue change. It argues that the American founding focus on liberty and freedom as increasingly selfish and incompatible with social justice and equality.

  Racism, the protesting left says, is in the American DNA. It finally requires massive cutting, chemotherapy and radiation — treatment that deservedly will sicken and may even kill the host.

  The other half of the country will vote to preserve what is under attack. They feel that the dreamy world of the demonstrators and rioters is an Orwellian vision far worse than the present reality that they are protesting.

  America in their view is the world’s only large, successful multiracial democracy. It is the dream destination of the world’s immigrants — precisely because its ancient institutions adapt and change for the better, but only if they are preserved and allowed to work.

  The angry and the demonstrating are loud and visible; their opponents are angry and quiet.

  The election will reveal not just who is more numerous — but sadly also who is the angriest.

  

• Shots Fired: Saudi Arabia Forced 3 Iranian Boats From Its Territorial Waters
  Shots Fired: Saudi Arabia Forced 3 Iranian Boats From Its Territorial Waters
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 22:30

  A rare moment where Saudi and Iranian vessels were in a direct standoff in what described as Saudi territorial waters has been revealed Saturday by Saudi state news agency SPA.

  Saudi Arabia says its coast guard forced no less than three Iranian vessels out of its territorial waters after firing warning shots. 

  While it’s unclear whether the Iranian boats had military personnel or perhaps civilian fishermen, the Saudi maritime border patrol issued repeated warnings, and then fired shots signaling it was ready to engage, SPA described.  

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  As the Iranian vessels pushed forward, the warning shots were then fired according to a Saudi border guards spokesman. 

  The last similar incident was in 2017 but the reverse situation. In that prior case it was Iran that seized a Saudi fishing boat and arrested fishermen for violating its territorial water. In a tit-for-tat move, Saudi Arabia did the same in 2018.

  Iran’s Mehr News says this newest tense incident occurred days ago, on Thursday, and described fishing boats that were blown off course, but that the vessels have now returned to Iran. 

  Typically hostile incidents don’t occur directly between Saudi and Iranian forces, but instead there’s been heightening clashes involving proxy forces, whether in Yemen, Iraq, or Syria – where proxy wars involving Sunni and Shia rival forces vying for control have raged for years. 

  Lately the US itself has warned Iranian fast boats to stay clear of American vessels or risk being fired upon, given over past months a number of “harassment” incidents by IRGC vessels circling larger US warships have been recorded. 

  

• "There's A Better Way Than This" – Wounded Warrior's Lament On American Patriotism Goes Viral
  “There’s A Better Way Than This” – Wounded Warrior’s Lament On American Patriotism Goes Viral
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 22:00

  Authored by Susan Katz Keating via JustTheNews.com,

  As the American homeland is roiled by conflict, a combat veteran’s hymn to comradeship and patriotism has reverberated on social media among warfighters who long for the lost clarity of war.

  “I miss the battlefield,” wrote Jim Lechner, an Army Ranger and retired officer, in a social media post.

  “Not the burning heat, the ache of heavy armor or the cold darkness of hostile ground. I miss the clarity.”

  A veteran of multiple Special Operations missions, Lechner has spent much time downrange, and was wounded in the 1993 Battle of Mogadishu in Somalia.

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  Now a history professor, he told Just the News that he wrote the essay because he now sees too much negativity within the United States, and he wanted to say something positive.

  “I wanted to remind my comrades that there’s a better way than this,” Lechner said.

  In the essay that he posted on Facebook, Lechner recalled combat where the enemy “churned, blended, twisted and turned.” He described pandemonium with one saving constant: his countrymen.

  “Americans were like rocks, Gibraltars in a storm,” he wrote. “In the midst of the chaos, Americans were handholds on the cliff, bridges over the abyss of terrorism and treachery.”

  In the thick of fighting, the only thing he looked for was an American uniform.

  “The camouflage and combat literally and figuratively melted everything else together,” Lechner wrote. “No race, no religion, no politics, just Americans.”

  Within hours of posting the note on Sunday, hundreds responded, sharing and resharing the sentiments.

  “I don’t know if every service person can relate, but every warrior can!” wrote one Army veteran who is black.

  “Actually we were just one race, Marine Green,” posted a veteran who is white and who served in Desert Storm. 

  One Army veteran who served with Lechner in Afghanistan took what for him was a rare action, and shared the post.

  “It struck a chord with me because he says clarity, and I get that,” retired Army Col. Tim Nye told Just the News. “The war really is clear compared to what we have now.”

  The post talks about unity, said Nye, a Ranger and Special Operations veteran. 

  “In the battlefield, it’s us, Americans, regardless of our background,” Nye said. “He’s talking about the bond. He’s talking about simplicity, especially if you fight for your life. Jim has fought for his life before.”

  The essay overall would resonate with anyone who knows what it’s like to have a shared bond, Nye said, adding, “He’s talking about holding on to shared experiences that hold us together rather than what tears us apart.”

  The full essay by Jim Lechner follows:

  I miss the battlefield. Not the burning heat, the ache of heavy armor or the cold darkness of hostile ground. I miss the clarity. We were fighting an enemy, who though often vile, was completely clear on his cause and beliefs. They were willing to live hard and die hard for what they believed in, no matter how misguided.

  Most of all I miss Americans. In a war between tribes, religions, sects and ideologies, the enemy often churned, blended, twisted and turned. But Americans were like rocks, Gibraltars in a storm. In the midst of the chaos, Americans were handholds on the cliff, bridges over the abyss of terrorism and treachery.

  The battlefield is the great crucible. On our battlefields the one virtue that mattered was an American would stand fast and have your back. The bond and the lifeline in combat were other Americans. The Americans to your left and right had no hyphens. I scanned for NODs and kevlars not faces or skin. In a street or alley, on the side of a mountain or sand berm all I looked for was an American uniform with a shoulder flag.

  The camouflage and combat literally and figuratively melted everything else together. No race, no religion, no politics, just Americans. There is clarity and a physical purity in that. Today at home, in the United States, I miss the battlefield.

  

• BuzzFeed "Reporter" Who Got Zerohedge Banned On Twitter, Fired For Plagiarism
  BuzzFeed “Reporter” Who Got Zerohedge Banned On Twitter, Fired For Plagiarism
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 21:45

  Almost five short months ago, ‘journalist’ Ryan Broderick was the envy of his fake news peers. The BuzzFeed ‘senior reporter’ had just written a hit-piece against Zero Hedge slamming us over the ‘conspiracy theory’ that COVID-19 may have emerged from a lab in Wuhan, China, and claiming that we doxed one of their scientists. Hours later, we were summarily kicked off of Twitter – a ban which has since been reversed after the social media giant admitted they were in error. Meanwhile, the lab origin ‘conspiracy theory’ has gained widespread support and is now the focus of several international investigations into the CCP lab.

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  Less than 48 hours after our February Twitter ban, internet sleuths discovered that Broderick had previously blogged about pedophilic fantasies involving young boys. Why he wasn’t fired on the spot is anyone’s guess. Perhaps former BuzzFeed editor-in-chief Ben Smith (now with the ‘Pedophilia: A Disorder, Not A Crime‘-promoting New York Times) has a soft spot for Ryan. 

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  On Friday, Broderick was fired for plagiarism after BuzzFeed‘s new editor-in-chief, Mark Schoofs, published “A Note To Our Readers” detailing eleven instances where Broderick lifted content from other publications without attribution going back to 2013, including his hit-piece against Zero Hedge.

  “BuzzFeed News has found that the following articles do not meet our editorial standards, as laid out in our standards and ethics guidelines,” reads Schoofs’ note. “As a result, the articles have been updated to more clearly attribute phrases and sentence construction to material previously published by other news organizations.”

  Which is a long-winded way to say: ‘Our Senior Reporter got caught plagiarizing eleven times, so we’re doing damage control.’

  It’s their pedo sympathizer @broderick – apparantley he would just copy and paste from AP articles.https://t.co/zrl1zhD6Tc

  — Rick McHelney (@FunkoHunter) June 27, 2020

  And now, Ryan can simply learn to code. Perhaps he should avoid blogging, photography and playgrounds.

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• "Stressed All The Time" – Millennials/Gen Z-ers See Job Mobility Plunge
  “Stressed All The Time” – Millennials/Gen Z-ers See Job Mobility Plunge
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 21:30

  The Deloitte Global Millennial Survey 2020 found nearly half of all Gen Z and millennial respondents were stressed during the COVID-19 pandemic as job mobility declined. 

  The survey reveals that close to half (48%) of Gen Z and 44% of millennial respondents said they’re stressed all or most of the time. 

  “Pandemic-related shutdowns have hit these generations hard, especially younger members. Almost 30% of Gen Zs and a quarter of younger millennials (25–30 years old) who took our pulse survey in late April or early May reported either losing their jobs or having been placed on temporary, unpaid leave. At that point, about one in five millennials around the world had been put out of work,” the study said.

  Origins of the stress are directly related to the virus-related socio-economic collapse, resulting in one of the deepest recession, if not, depression, since the 1930s. The labor force is severely damaged, with tens of millions of unemployed and recovery that could take several years. 

  As the economy deteriorates, so does a dynamic labor market, and that means changing jobs will become even harder as mobility declines. 

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  The share of millennial respondents who said they would leave a job within two years plunged to 31% from 49% – while those who said they would stick with their current job for more than five years rose to 35% from 28% in last year’s survey. 

  Gen Z respondents showed about half of these folks would like to change careers within two years, down from 61% in last year’s survey. 

  Six in 10 of all respondents said they would like the opportunity of working remotely rather than relocating for a job, although Gen Zers were more interested in moving. A little more than half of all respondents said they would work from home and live outside major cities. 

  

• Woman Assaulted At BLM Protest For Holding "Police Lives Matter" Sign
  Woman Assaulted At BLM Protest For Holding “Police Lives Matter” Sign
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 21:00

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  A woman was repeatedly assaulted at a BLM protest in Austin, Texas for the sin of holding a sign that said “Police Lives Matter”.

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  “I’ve felt the need to stand up for the police lives, so I went and demonstrated with a “Police Lives Matter” sign and as per usual, the violent left found their way over,” tweeted Savanah Hernandez.

  “Luckily, many of the people attending the nearby BLM rally protected me and my first amendment. Thank you.”

  The clips shows Hernandez being confronted by a mask-wearing woman who says, “This isn’t the fucking place for that, get the fuck out of here.”

  I’ve felt the need to stand up for the police lives, so I went and demonstrated with a “Police Lives Matter” sign and as per usual, the violent left found their way over.

  Luckily, many of the people attending the nearby BLM rally protected me and my first amendment. Thank you. pic.twitter.com/JaF31OypYr

  — Savanah Hernandez (@sav_says_) June 27, 2020

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  “You look like a fucking idiot, you stupid bitch,” she adds before assaulting the cameraman.

  Hernandez calmly explains that she is exercising her first amendment rights before the leftist states, “Fuck police lives.”

  A black woman who tried to de-escalate the situation admitted the optics were bad when she stated, “We can’t advocate for police and be attacking people.”

  The woman who confronted Hernandez subsequently tries to grab her sign before assaulting her. Another clip from later on shows the woman trying to grab Hernandez by the hair.

  *  *  *

  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  

• Gab CEO Warns VIsa Is Helping To Bring China's "Social Credit Score" To America
  Gab CEO Warns VIsa Is Helping To Bring China’s “Social Credit Score” To America
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 20:30

  A little over a week after getting blacklisted by Visa simply for being associated with Gab, a social media alternative that’s committed to the principles of free speech, Andrew Torba, Gab’s CEO, has just spoken out for the first time via a blog post detailing his experiences. His account is almost shocking in that, as Torba argues, it shows that US corporations like Visa have started to create their own version of China’s “social credit score” metric in the US.

  If you’re deemed “politically incorrect”, you will be silenced, fired and harassed by major corporations, journalists and “activists” who claim to be committed to social justice and equality. As Torba explains, because he refuses to censor hate speech on his platform in keeping with his commitment to making Gab a censorship-free platform, Visa has targeted him, and accused him of “breaking the law” – even though “hate speech” is protected under the First Amendment.

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  Visa has effectively cut Torba off from the dollar-based financial system. His easiest means of transacting digitally, at this point, probably involves crypto.

  This level of prosecution should make Christians and conservatives nervous, as they have seen these tactics from the left before. And the results last time around…well…they weren’t pretty…no matter what American millennials might believe.

  * * *

  As many of you already know we learned last week that Visa blacklisted Gab and we are now unable to process credit and debit card transactions. We learned more information this week and I think it’s important that I share it as a warning for others.
  It’s not just Gab that is blacklisted. It’s also my family.

  In China there is something called the Social Credit System, which was developed by the Communist Chinese Party as a “national reputation system.” This system tracks the “trustworthiness” of individuals, businesses, and organizations. “Trustworthiness” here means total and complete submission to the Chinese Communist Party. If the Communist Party deems you to be untrustworthy, you are denied access to plane tickets, train tickets, opening and operating businesses, and more.

  As of June 2019, according to the National Development and Reform Commission of China, 26.82 million air tickets as well as 5.96 million high-speed rail tickets have been denied to people who were deemed “untrustworthy (失信)” (on a blacklist), and 4.37 million “untrustworthy” people have chosen to fulfill their duties required by the law.

  To most Americans this sounds horrifying, and it is. I now know from first-hand experience because this social credit system exists in the United States. While it may not be sanctioned by the United States government, it most certainly has been deployed by US corporations who today have in many ways more power, data, and control over our lives than our government does. Many of these corporations also happen to be endorsing and raising money for communist organizations, revolutionaries, and the domestic terrorists burning down our cities.

  We were told this week that not only is Gab blacklisted by Visa as a business, but my personal name, phone number, address, and more are all also blacklisted by Visa. If I wanted to leave Gab tomorrow (something that isn’t going to happen) and start a lemonade stand I wouldn’t be able to obtain merchant processing for it. Simply because my name is Andrew Torba. If my wife wants to start a business she won’t be able to obtain merchant processing because she lives at the same address as me and would be flagged by Visa.

  This is obviously very concerning. We have done nothing wrong. Gab is and always has been a legally operated business. We sell hats, shirts, and a software subscription service that unlocks new features on Gab. My personal credit score is in the 800’s. I pay my bills. I have a wife and daughter to provide for, yet we are all being punished and defamed because someone at Visa has it out for me.

  We were told that Visa has someone camping on our website watching our payment processing. As soon as we get a new processor up they find out who it is on their end and contact them. They tell the processor that Gab is flagged for “illegal activity” and if they do not stop processing payments for us they will be heavily fined.

  When the processor inquires about this alleged “illegal activity,” Visa tells them that Gab has been flagged for “hate speech.” “Hate speech,” is of course not illegal in the United States of America and is protected by the First Amendment. As I have written, it’s not real and I refuse to acknowledge it as term. Visa doesn’t agree with me.

  The reason I share all of this is that I hope it serves as a wakeup call and as a warning. If they can do this to me, they can do it to you and they likely will.

  Christians need to be especially concerned and aware of this. The Communist revolutionaries taking over the United States are coming for us all. It’s only a matter of time before the Bible is labeled as “hate speech” and churches start to experience what I am going through right now.

  And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name. Revelation 13:17

  * * *

  Andrew Torba

  CEO, Gab.com

  June 26th, 2020

  * * *

  Source: Gab

  

• US Confirms 40k COVID-19 Cases For 2nd Day In A Row As Pence Cancels Campaign Stops: Live Updates
  US Confirms 40k COVID-19 Cases For 2nd Day In A Row As Pence Cancels Campaign Stops: Live Updates
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 20:20

  Summary:

  • US set for another day of 40k+ cases
  • Texas reports latest numbers
  • Pence cancels campaign events
  • NY reports another 700+ cases
  • WSJ reports that more GOP governors, Congressman support increased testing and mask-wearing
  • Cali reports 3% jump
  • Nevada reports record jump
  • UK reports 100 new deaths
  • Italy sees numbers continue to improve
  • Egypt continues with reopening
  • 16 NBA players test positive
  • Hospitalization capacity
  • Florida, Arizona see record jumps
  • Ariz intensive care occupancy ticks lower
  • Australia reports largest jump in new cases since April
  • Tokyo reports another increase in cases
  • Florida sees 2nd straight record jump
  • US reports 3rd straight record increase (45,942 cases)
  • Miami mayor closes beaches
  • Indonesia reports another record jump

  * * *

  Update (1800ET): Saturday was another day of record-breaking coronavirus numbers across the US as four states set new records for daily case totals, while Arizona set a new record high for hospitalizations, as the state’s hospital system is starting to look dangerously stretched.

  Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Nevada hit new highs in daily cases reported, while Arizona set a record on current hospitalizations. As of Saturday afternoon, more than 42,000 new cases have been reported across the US, leaving the country on track for the second straight day of 40k+ cases (some totals put the number above 40k for Thursday and Wednesday as well, which would make Saturday day No. 4 above the important psychological threshold).

  Deaths, meanwhile, remained mostly subdued. And in further good news, it seems the record streak has come to an end, as Jim Bianco notes, the total numbers for Sat vs Friday are slightly lower.

  Saturday’s cases back off slightly which probably has to do with some labs being closed. Expect the same type of dip into Monday.

  165,611 in the last four days. For comparison, on March 31 the total level of cases to date was 168,000. pic.twitter.com/1hbs2xW8v9

  — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) June 27, 2020

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  As we noted earlier, Texas Gov Greg Abbott’s admission that he regrets reopening bars as early as he did has led a flurry of other Republicans (including even former VP Dick Cheney) to caution on the importance of improved testing access and social distancing and mask requirements.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The biggest news of the day is definitely VP Pence’s plan to cancel campaign stops set for next week. According to the Washington Post, inside contacts within the campaign couldn’t (or wouldn’t) tell the paper when campaign stops would resume. In addition to postponing the rallies, the campaign is also rescheduling several more intimate events featuring the VP. Though, one notable late-breaking developing is the fact that one Oklahoma journalist who covered Trump’s rally in Tulsa last week has apparently tested positive for COVID-19.

  * * *

  Update (1600ET): In what looks like good news, Texas has seen the number of new cases slow.

  • TEXAS VIRUS CASES RISE 4.2%, IN LINE WITH 7-DAY AVERAGE
  • TEXAS VIRUS DEATHS CLIMB BY 42 TO 2,366
  • TEXAS VIRUS CASES RISE 5,747 TO 143,371

  * * *

  Update (1515ET): In the latest indication that President Trump and the rest of the GOP are coming around to supporting mandatory mask wearing and other measures to slow the spread of the virus, the White House just announced that it will cancel VP Pence’s campaign trips to Florida and Arizona “out of an abundance of caution.” Pence faced a fusillade of questions during the WH COVID-19 task force’s first press briefing in two months yesterday about the campaign events, and whether the administration was encouraging Americans to disregard social distancing measures by refusing to lead by example.

  The decision to cancel the events comes after both states reported record numbers earlier today (see more on that below).

  Pence argued the Trump Campaign was simply giving Americans “the option” of “participating in their civic duty” (though typically that’s applied to voting, not attending campaign events). But the latest round of polls has clearly gotten to the president, who is perhaps finally realizing that his antagonistic, divisive rhetoric and sometimes-petulant of insufficiently serious approach (like when he joked about slowing down testing) might actually cost him the election. Mark Cuban even posited that Trump’s recent behavior was intentional, arguing that Trump secretly doesn’t want to win a second term.

  “The media has tried to scare the American people every step of the way, and these grim predictions of a second wave are no different.”

  –@VP on June 16 https://t.co/1q1bomof4V

  — Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) June 27, 2020

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  Florida, Texas, California and Arizona have been the biggest contributors to the surge in US cases.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: WSJ, JHU

  Shortly before the news hit, a pair of WSJ political reporters published a story examining how many GOP governors and members of Congress are throwing their support behind rapidly increasing testing capacity and mask usage as the US is presently on track to report a fourth consecutive record batch of daily infection numbers, as the US has gone from reporting 20k to 40k cases per day in a matter of weeks.

  To be sure, while the mainstream press would have readers believe that the fault for this increase lies solely with the president, many areas where BLM protests were the most intense (like Philadelphia and San Francisco) are seeing an alarming jump in new cases on par with the hard-hit “red states”.

  NY on Saturday reported another 700 or so cases, less than yesterday but the data shared by Cuomo shows that the number of cases has stopped falling and has begun to tick higher, even as deaths continue to decline.

  Today’s update on the numbers:

  73,262 tests were performed yesterday. 703 tests came back positive (0.96% of total).

  Total hospitalizations fell to 908.

  Sadly, there were 13 COVID fatalities yesterday. pic.twitter.com/zo5plv0dKy

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) June 27, 2020

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  Meanwhile, the US is creeping closer and closer to 2.5 million case mark.

  * * *

  Update (1334ET): Though it’s not a record jump, California has reported another day over day increase.

  • CALIFORNIA COVID-19 CASES RISE 3% VS 2.8% 7-DAY AVERAGE

  * * *

  Update (1315ET): States from New Jersey to Nevada have just reported their latest coronavirus numbers.

  One day after imposing a statewide mandatory mask mandate…

  Today is the first day of the statewide face covering mandate. I encourage all businesses to post signage reminding Nevadans and visitors of these new rules to help us all stay safe and healthy. Posters are available online at https://t.co/7wrtjyVq4G #MaskUpNV pic.twitter.com/JBE870kJmn

  — Governor Sisolak (@GovSisolak) June 26, 2020

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  …Nevada has reported a record jump in new coronavirus cases that is more than double the last daily figures.

  New Jersey, meanwhile, reported 347 new cases, lower than yesterday’s number, however…

  NEW: NJ has 347 new positive cases of #COVID19, pushing our cumulative total to 170,873.

  Sadly, we must report an additional 36 deaths among COVID-19 confirmed-positive residents, pushing our total to 13,094 lives lost.

  For more data, visit https://t.co/JW1q8awGh7. pic.twitter.com/AAUa4As0Wn

  — Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) June 27, 2020

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  …the number of new cases has continued to creep higher as Gov Murphy has warned about the state’s “R” rate, which measures the number of people infected on average by each carrier, a representation of how quickly the virus is spreading. “R” rates above 1 means the virus is spreading; below 1 means the outbreak is waning.

  Meanwhile, Pakistan reported 3,138 new cases of coronavirus and 74 new deaths as ten members of the national cricket team were confirmed to be infected. Pakistan now has a total of 198,883 cases and 4,035 deaths. Indonesia reported 1,385 new cases of coronavirus, bringing its total to 52,812 cases in total, in what was Indonesia’s latest record jump.

  Back in the states, some are already pushing New York to delay the return of “indoor” restaurant service.

  Texas & Florida–> closing bars again to slow huge surge in the virus

  New York City–> set to open bars & restaurants for *indoor* service July 6

  Let’s not wait until NYC has a rebound to figure this out. Indoor gatherings are riskier. Let’s stick with outdoor service for now.

  — Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) June 27, 2020

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  Meanwhile, though numbers in Europe have ticked higher, Italy is still seeing numbers shrink.

  JUST IN: Italy reports 175 new cases of coronavirus and 8 new deaths.

  Total of 240,136 cases and 34,716 deaths.

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) June 27, 2020

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  NEW: Italy reports less than 10 new deaths from coronavirus for first time in 4 months.

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) June 27, 2020

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  ITALY: Number of coronavirus patients in intensive care has dropped below 100.

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) June 27, 2020

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  Egypt, meanwhile, has started reopening cafes, clubs, gyms and theaters along with lifting and easing other lockdown-related measures, after more than three months of closure, even as the number of infections continues to climb.

  In sports news, as the MLB prepares to kick off a shortened season, 16 NBA players in the US have tested positive for the new coronavirus in the first wave of mandatory tests as the league restart approaches.

  As of 1pmET, more than 9.7 million people around the world have tested positive for COVID-19, while roughly 4.9 million have recovered, and 493,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University. At this rate, the world should surpass half a million infections and 10 million cases by the middle of next week.

  Peru, one of South America’s worst-hit countries, will lift coronavirus lockdown measures in a large swath of the country, including the capital, Lima, beginning next month. 

  The UK death toll increased by just 100 per data released Saturday, bringing its total to 43,514, as one of Europe’s deadliest outbreaks continues to slow.

  As Germany takes the reins of the EU presidency, Chancellor Angela Merkel cautioned that the coronavirus pandemic is far from over, as more regional clusters stir up fears of a second wave. Merkel said in her weekly video podcast that getting Europe’s economy back on track is her No. 1 goal as Germany takes over the rotating European Union. She added that all Europeans share “joint responsibility” to wear masks etc.

  * * *

  Update (1205ET): As we’ve noted, deaths across even the most hard-hit cases like Florida and Texas have continued to decline amid the latest surge in infections, as officials see the median age of those infected drop by a decade or more.

  But as a team of JPM analysts noted in a note to clients, hospital capacity across the US isn’t actually as stretched as it was during the early weeks of the outbreak – before it hit its “peak” in NYC and the surrounding area – as hospital managers in Houston have assured the public that they have plenty of overflow capacity to bring online.

  To be sure, left wing conspiracy theorists like Rachel Maddow have reported that people are dying in the halls of Arizona’s hospitals, a laughable farce, to be sure. One official from Arizona Children’s Hospital claimed that the state’s health-care system could be overwhelmed by the beginning of July (ie next week).

  Rachel Maddow: ‘The federal government is just abandoning ship’ on stopping the coronavirus

  Hospitals in Arizona have patients in hallways because they are maxed!

  The Feds are using Covid19 to exterminate Americans!#wtp2020 https://t.co/AP38VHzKeJ

  — DeeJay 🏳️‍🌈 (@barhacuda) June 25, 2020

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  As the data, packaged here by JPM analysts, clearly shows, no state is seeing capacity stretched to extremes – at least not yet.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  * * *

  Update (1145ET): Arizona just reported its daily figures for Saturday (remember, these data are reported with a 24-hour delay). After a brief respite from record numbers, the state reported a record jump of 3,591 cases, which is bang-on tied with the last record number from June 23, though it’s slightly lower in percentage-point terms.

  • ARIZONA DAILY VIRUS CASES JUMP 5.4%, BY A RECORD 3,591
  • ARIZONA CORONAVIRUS CASES RISE BY 3,591 ON SATURDAY, TIED WITH JUNE 23 FOR BIGGEST DAILY INCREASE SINCE PANDEMIC STARTED – STATE HEALTH DEPT

  The most recent data from the Arizona Department of Health Services showed 87% of beds in intensive care units are occupied, down from an all-time high of 88% from Wednesday and Thursday.

  The number of new infections have continued to climb since Trump’s rally in Phoenix on Tuesday, though numbers were trending higher before that. New cases are climbing in 33 states, but 16, including Arizona, have seen consistent and troubling growth beyond what increases in testing would lead one to expect. The State’s governor has pleaded with Arizonans to stay home and wear masks,

  * * *

  As we noted last night, the US recorded a third record jump in new COVID-19 cases, with 45,942 cases reported, helped along by a staggering ~9k print out of Florida and thousands of new cases in California, Texas and Arizona. Florida’s latest numbers have been so sever, that they finally pushed Gov Ron DeSantis to shut down bars in the state, following the lead of Texas Gov Greg Abbott. Following his decision to roll back some of the lockdown easing, Abbott said last night that if he could have done one thing differently, he wouldn’t have reopened the bars so quickly.

  Nationally, more than 44k new cases were reported today. That’s the third straight record day. pic.twitter.com/ahY6WvRLC6

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 26, 2020

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  “f I could go back and redo anything, it probably would have been to slow down the opening of bars…” Abbott said during an interview with the local Texas press Friday evening. He added that the bar setting “in reality, just doesn’t work with a pandemic…”

  Dr. Fauci joined the chorus of experts warning that it’s only a matter of time before deaths start increase in line with the new case totals. But on Friday, the 7-day national average for daily deaths reported continued to decline day over day.

  States reported 619 deaths.

  The 7-day average fell to 556. pic.twitter.com/FoymaF05NK

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 26, 2020

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  DeSantis, on the other hand, drew the ire of Bloomberg and the increasingly-critical mainstream press after he snapped at a reporter. When asked if he would have done anything differently, he defiantly responded “like what?” That…probably wasn’t the best reaction from an optics standpoint, especially now that his state has kicked off the weekend with another record jump in new cases, suggesting that the US might be on track for a fourth-straight record jump as the outbreak in 16 states mostly along the American sun belt (encompassing most of the south and west) worsens.

  Florida reported 9,585 new coronavirus cases, another 7.8% increase (in line with the percentage increase seen in the last few days). That’s compared with 8,942 cases reported yesterday. It was the second record jump in a row for the state. In just over a week, the state has reported ~40,000 new cases, or roughly 1/3rd of the statewide total since the pandemic began.

  Florida’s new state totals include:

  • 132,545 cases
  • 14,136 Floridians hospitalized
  • 3,390 deaths of Florida residents

  Testing continued to climb across the US, even as the number of new confirmed cases far outpaced the increase in testing, as even VP Mike Pence acknowledged last night.

  The situation is getting worse in Florida, if that’s even possible. More than 9,500 new cases reported today. WOW. pic.twitter.com/z70cGDUeNw

  — Charles Ornstein (@charlesornstein) June 27, 2020

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  The percentage of positive tests, a new critical metric that is being closely followed by investors and epidemiologists alike, has continued to climb in many of the hardest-hit states.

  This chart looks at per-capita testing rates and the percent positive. Arizona is all by itself, but South Carolina and Florida are moving rightward. pic.twitter.com/H1Yl7VxzIA

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 26, 2020

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  South Florida, particularly Miami-Dade County, remains the worst-hit part of the state, reporting roughly a quarter of the statewide total.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: FLA Dept of Health

  Hours after Gov DeSantis ordered bars closed, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez announced late Friday that he would shut the city’s most popular beaches for the Independence Day holiday weekend, probably the most aggressive step, economically speaking, as the weekend is typically a busy one during an otherwise slow summer season.

  Gimenez said in a statement that the five-days suspension starting July 3 would be extended “if conditions do not improve.”

  After consulting with our County’s public health experts, I will be signing an emergency order on Saturday to close all beaches in Miami-Dade County starting Friday, July 3, and ending Tuesday, July 7. More info: https://t.co/oSgkrB8CrS pic.twitter.com/CydnVmljz5

  — Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez (@MayorGimenez) June 27, 2020

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  Internationally, Brazil and Latin American continue to contribute more to the global total as the great rebound continues. Even Europe saw cases rise for the second straight week as easing lockdowns have led some local officials to reinstate strict social distancing rules and even lockdowns. Though, per capita, Arizona alone is still outpacing every European country, including Italy, Spain and the UK.

  Elsewhere, Tokyo reported 57 new cases on Saturday, the most since Japanese PM Shinzo Abe finally lifted the state of emergency order from the last few prefectures, including Tokyo. The capital city has been by far the biggest hot spot in the country.

  Australia reported 47 new cases, its highest daily jump since April 17. New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state, is requiring all returning travelers to get tested for the virus. The region reported 6 new cases on Saturday, while the rest were tied to an outbreak in Victoria State.

  

• NYU Prof: "Hundreds, If Not Thousands" Of Universities Will Soon Be "Walking-Dead"
  NYU Prof: “Hundreds, If Not Thousands” Of Universities Will Soon Be “Walking-Dead”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 20:00

  Authored by Maria Copeland via CampusReform.org,

  As colleges attempt to recover from the pandemic and prepare for future semesters, a New York University professor estimates that the next 5-10 years will see one to two thousand schools going out of business.

  Scott Galloway, professor of marketing at the New York University Leonard N. Stern School of Business told Hari Sreenivasan on PBS’ “Amanpour and Co.” that many colleges are likely to suffer to the point of eventual extinction as a result of the coronavirus.

  He sets up a selection of tier-two universities as those most likely not to walk away from the shutdown unscathed. During the pandemic, wealthy companies have not struggled to survive. Similarly, he says, “there is no luxury brand like higher education,” and the top names will emerge from coronavirus without difficulty. 

  “Regardless of enrollments in the fall, with endowments of $4 billion or more, Brown and NYU will be fine,” Galloway wrote in a blog post.

  “However, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of universities with a sodium pentathol cocktail of big tuition and small endowments that will begin their death march this fall.” 

  “You’re gonna see an incredible destruction among companies that have the following factors: a tier-two brand; expensive tuition, and low endowments,” he said on “Amanpour and Co.,” because “there’s going to be demand destruction because more people are gonna take gap years, and you’re going to see increased pressure to lower costs.”

  Approximating that a thousand to two thousand of the country’s 4,500 universities could go out of business in the next 5-10 years, Galloway concludes, “what department stores were to retail, tier-two higher tuition universities are about to become to education and that is they are soon going to become the walking dead.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Another critical issue underlying the financial difficulties families and universities both face is the possibility that the quality of higher education has decreased. 

  Galloway argues that an education in the U.S. is observably unsatisfactory for the amount that it costs, given that if you “walk into a class, it doesn’t look, smell or feel much different than it did 40 years ago, except tuition’s up 1,400 percent,” he said during an interview with Dr. Sanjay Gupta.

  And the pandemic, according to Galloway, has served to expose the quality of higher education. 

  “Students I think across America along with their families listening in on these Zoom classes are all beginning to wonder what kind of value, or lack thereof, they’re getting for their tuition dollars,” he said. 

  Here’s what Professor Galloway expects to happen:

  In the next six weeks, after receiving deposits/tuition, more universities will begin announcing they are moving to all online courses for Fall. The scenario planning via Zoom among administrators rivals D-Day. But likely all scenarios will lead to one realization: the protocols mandated by the surge in US infections will diminish the in-class experience to the point where the delta between in-person and Zoom will be less than the delta between the risks of each approach.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Parents and students may still decide to send their kids back to campus, and make their own decisions concerning the risks they can tolerate with a hybrid experience — online learning while living on or near campus. They should/will enjoy the lawns at UVA and Royce Quad with friends — marked for distancing. But in-person classes should not take place.

  Universities will face a financial crisis as parents and students recalibrate the value of the fall semester (spoiler alert: it’s a terrible deal). In addition, our cash cows (international students) may decide xenophobia, Covid-19, and H1-B visa limits aren’t worth $79,000 (estimated one-year cost of attending NYU). This has been a long time coming and, similar to many industries, we will be forced to make hard decisions. Most universities will survive, many will not. This reckoning is overdue and a reflection of how drunk universities have become on exclusivity and the Rolex-ification of campuses, forgetting we’re public servants not luxury brands.

  The outspoken professors ends with another uncomfortable truth: Universities that, after siphoning $1.5 trillion in credit from young people, cannot endure a semester on reduced budgets do not deserve to survive.

  

• "Eat The Rich!": BLM Invades Beverly Hills – Then The Cops Showed Up
  “Eat The Rich!”: BLM Invades Beverly Hills – Then The Cops Showed Up
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 19:03

  Black Lives Matter protesters marched through the streets of California’s upscale Beverly Hills Friday night chanting “Eat the rich!” and “Abolish capitalism now!” – only to be confronted by the police, as reported by the Daily Wire.

  Black Lives Matter mob shouts “eat the rich” as they march down a residential area in Beverly Hills. They’re coming for your homes.pic.twitter.com/gs5Hszjb7m

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) June 27, 2020

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  According to the Beverly Hills PD, several arrests were made.

  The unlawful assembly in the area of Rexford Dr & Carmelita Ave has ended with arrests being made. Protesters have now left the City.

  — Beverly Hills Police (@BeverlyHillsPD) June 27, 2020

  “The Black Lives Matter mob shut down Santa Monica Boulevard, Rodeo Drive, and intersections around the city center,” wrote Human Events managing editor Ian Miles Cheong – who posted several clips of the activity on Twitter.

  The Black Lives Matter mob shut down Santa Monica Boulevard, Rodeo Drive, and intersections around the city center. They don’t want you to do business. pic.twitter.com/3C2kt7cSZI

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) June 27, 2020

  The Black Lives Matter mob in Los Angeles seized a privately owned American flag in a residential suburb, shredding it and pulling it down. pic.twitter.com/gCffXqZuwZ

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) June 27, 2020

  Then the police showed up…

  The police showed up in full force to arrest members of the Black Lives Matter mob making a nuisance of themselves across residential Los Angeles streets. One pretended to be injured by the police and forced them to drag him. pic.twitter.com/9hBjv4og8M

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) June 27, 2020

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  Several weeks ago, Beverly Hills officials issued an order limiting gatherings to 10 people or less “between the hours of 9 p.m. and 8 a.m.,” defining an assembly as “any gathering or group of 10 or more people on a public street, sidewalk or other public space if those 10 people have a common purpose of goal.”

  Of course, none of that’s being enforced until BLM sets foot in posh Beverly Hills.

  

• Princeton Dumps Woodrow Wilson's Name Due To "Racist Thinking"
  Princeton Dumps Woodrow Wilson’s Name Due To “Racist Thinking”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 19:00

  By Daniel Payne of Just The News

  Princeton University’s Board of Trustees announced Saturday that it has voted to strip the Ivy League university’s public policy school of its moniker honoring Woodrow Wilson, claiming the former Democratic president’s racist ideology made him ill-suited as a namesake for the institution.  Wilson’s “racist thinking and policies make him an inappropriate namesake for a school whose scholars, students, and alumni must be firmly committed to combating the scourge of racism in all its forms,” the trustees said in a statement on Friday.

  Student protests at Princeton in November 2015 called attention to Wilson’s racism, and we responded by forming an ad hoc committee, chaired by Brent Henry ’69, to study Wilson’s legacy at Princeton. The committee recommended valuable reforms to increase Princeton’s inclusivity and recount the University’s history more completely, but it left the names of the School and College intact. Student and alumni interest in those names has persisted, and we revisited them this month as the American nation struggled profoundly with the terrible injustice of racism.

  – Excerpted from a statement by the Princeton Board of Trustees

  Deleting Wilson’s name at Princeton may be the most high-profile “cancel culture” act to date. The policy school will now be known as “The Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.”

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  Wilson, a progressive Democrat known for his contempt of the U.S. Constitution due to the limits it imposed on the federal government, was a proponent of segregation and allowed much of the federal government’s workings to become racially segregated during his two terms between 1913-1921. Under his executive tenure, the first movie ever screened at the White House was the pro-Ku Klux Klan film “The Birth of a Nation.” 

  Wilson was president of Princeton from 1902 to 1910 and, as a Democrat, served as governor of New Jersey before winning the 1912 presidential election. Wilson, born in Virginia in 1856, spent his early years in the South, including in Georgia and South Carolina.

  Though the board stripped Wilson’s name from the highly regarded policy school, the trustees nevertheless argued that “Princeton has a continuing responsibility to remember [Wilson’s] achievements even as we honestly and publicly contend with his failures.”

  The trustees also said they would rename the school’s residential Wilson College to “First College” ahead of that residence’s already-scheduled closure in two years. 

  A university honor bearing the president’s name – the Woodrow Wilson Award – will remain unchanged, the trustees added, due to that award’s being associated with a gift to the university.

  “The award explicitly honors specific and positive aspects of Wilson’s career,” the trustees wrote, “and it, unlike the School or the College, does not require students to identify with the Wilson name in connection with their academic or residential programs.”

  * * *

  And now that cancel culture has finally sprung within the hallowed halls of America’s top liberal universities, one can argue – if one wasn’t a hypocrite of course – that the time has come to tear down Harvard, Columbia, Princeton, Yale, Georgetown and pretty much most legacy institutions. The reason: as the following link details, history shows that slavery has helped build most US colleges and universities…

  Time to tear down Harvard, Columbia, Princeton and Yale.

  History shows slavery helped build many U.S. colleges and universitieshttps://t.co/TwCjS2u7p2

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 21, 2020

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  … and none more so than that Ivy Leage pinnacle, Harvard – the first institution of higher learning in America, founded in 1636 – and whose first 150 years of history are defined by slavery and the slave economy, or as APM Reports writes, “Slaves made beds and meals for Harvard presidents.”

  “Harvard was the first institution of higher learning in America, founded in 1636. Slavery and the slave economy thread through the first 150 years of its history. Slaves made beds and meals for Harvard presidents”https://t.co/TwCjS2u7p2

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 21, 2020

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• Texas Realtors Stop Using 'Master Bedroom' Over Slavery Connotations
  Texas Realtors Stop Using ‘Master Bedroom’ Over Slavery Connotations
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 18:30

  White Americans trying to outcompete each other in the wokelympics have found a new word to blacklist eliminate from the public lexicon over its ties to slavery.

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  According to TMZ, the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR) – which has one black guy in a leadership position – “is no longer using the word “master” to hype bedrooms and bathrooms on its Multiple Listing Service.”

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  Going forward, they will be referred to as “primary” bedrooms and bathrooms, avoiding insensitive and awkward encounters which HAR claims has been “raised and considered for several years,” according to the report. 

  Houston area realtors are still free to use the ‘offending’ term, however, as HAR’s newfound wokeness is just a suggestion.

  Given the woke mob’s ability to cancel ‘offensive’ content, concepts and now words, we have a few questions for clarification:

  Will Gordon Ramsay change MasterChef to PrimaryChef?

  Will the computer industry dispense with ‘master / slave’ to designate relationships between hard drives?

  Will the PGA now hold the Primarys tournament?

  Will Warner Brothers revise Mad Max so that “Primary Blaster” runs Bartertown?

  Will The Last Dragon receive the same revisionism?

  Will Metallica re-release Primary of Puppets?

  What about:

  Masters degrees?

  Master cylinders?

  Master recordings?

  Enjoy the old language while you still can.

  

• Fundamentals & Reality Are Making Their Presence Felt
  Fundamentals & Reality Are Making Their Presence Felt
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 18:00

  Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

  An eventful week in markets and the economy as the month and quarter are coming to a close next week.

  The broader market peaked on June 8th on the heels of unprecedented central bank intervention but has since failed to make new highs other than the Nasdaq. Any subsequent efforts by the Fed to stave off any market sell off via the announcement of individual corporate bond buying 2 weeks ago or this week’s announcement to relax the Volcker rule for banks have produced nothing but short lived bounces in markets leading to lower highs and further selling in equities.

  Fundamentals and reality are making their presence felt. The reopening of the US economy is hampered by violent spikes in coronavirus infections in some part of the US leading to delayed reopening in some cases raising questions about the veracity of any V shape recovery in the economy as lay off announcements keep mounting globally.

  The realization that jobs will not come back to anywhere near February levels may take time to sink in as does perhaps the inconvenient truth that the Fed’s intervention efforts may be hitting a point of diminishing returns.

  In this week’s episode of Straight Talk we discuss the market’s technical battle line for control, the state of the banks and their message to markets, the gnawing threats on big cap tech, specifically on Facebook as advertisers are pulling out in droves in the midst of political backlash, the going forward political risk of big cap tech having reached quasi monopoly status in their respective fields, the ongoing threat of the virus resurgence to the V shape recovery narrative, the political risks to markets due the upcoming presidential election and possible impacts of tax policy and much more:

  For reference a couple of charts relating to what we discussed in the video above:

  $SPX, following peaking June 8th when it tagged a key trend line has now reversed lower and has closed the week below its weekly 5 EMA for the first time since the March lows following the break of the rally trend earlier in the month:

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  This could be signaling a trend shift. But also note $SPX closed right at its weekly 50MA and just below its daily 200MA:

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  Note also the consecutive breakouts in volatility since the June 8th peak.

  Put in context the horrid action in the banking sector, even this week’s loosening of the Volcker rule lead the resulting bounce to be sold. Worse for banks potentially here is that the chart suggests a potential head and shoulders pattern that could signal much lower prices ahead in context of the 10 year again dropping lower as well:

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  Since the June peak, $SPX is down 7%, small caps are down over 10% and the banking index is down over 20%. These are sizable moves to the downside and tech is increasingly under threat as well and its strength came on ever weakening internals.

  I’ve outlined the reasons why the historic rally may have been still nothing but a bear market rally fueled to extremes by unprecedented liquidity injections and why the Fed looks increasingly busted in trying to defend this market without being able to prevent what the banks and bond market are already signaling: We’re staring at the prospect of a protracted downturn.

  Markets are a journey and the day to day back and forth may well distract from the bigger picture, hence it is critically important to keep a close watch on the technical charts and evolving macro data. My primary view: There are plenty opportunities to trade the long and the short side as the battle between artificial liquidity interventions and the fundamental/valuation picture rages on in the months to come. But be clear: In June the broader market made a lower high and the path to a full economic recovery does not look anything like a clear V at all while valuations remain at unprecedented levels during a recession.

  *  *  *

  I’ll be posting a separate Market Video focusing on the latest technical implications later today (For those not already signed up for these videos please see link to register). For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services.

  

• "Disturbing Parallel To HIV": COVID-19 Can Cause Depletion Of Important Immune Cells, NY Times Admits
  “Disturbing Parallel To HIV”: COVID-19 Can Cause Depletion Of Important Immune Cells, NY Times Admits
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 17:30

  Once again, it looks as though what was once being peddled as Covid-19 “conspiracy theory” on our site appears to have turned out to have been accurate news reported months before the mainstream media. Go figure.

  As far back as February 1, 2020, when the pandemic was only starting to attract attention and the China-influenced mainstream media was politically inclined to minimize the severity of the disease before pulling a sharp U-turn and now going full bore with a narrative of just how dangerous it is to reopen the economy, we published an article referencing an Arxiv pre-print which found that the Covid-19 genome contained “HIV Insertions”, stoking fears that the virus was an artificially created bioweapon.

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  While the mere suggestion that this virus was man-made – nevermind sharing discrete segments of its genetic structure with HIV – sparked outrage among the well-paid mercenary enforcers of the First Amendment known as “fact-checkers” who are employed by such biased organizations as Twitter and Facebook to stifle any line of inquiry that runs contrary to whatever dominant narrative has been blessed by the Zuckerbergs and Dorseys of the world, it was none other than the man who discovered the HIV virus back in 1983, that confirmed our suspicions saying that “the virus was man-made.”

  We then reported in April that Professor Luc Montagnier, the 2008 Nobel Prize winner for Medicine, claimed that SARS-CoV-2 is a manipulated virus that was accidentally released from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, and added that the Wuhan laboratory, known for its work on coronaviruses, tried to use one of these viruses as a vector for HIV in the search for an AIDS vaccine.

  This is the same conclusion we explored months before the mainstream media when we suggested that COVID-19 may have emerged from a lab in Wuhan instead of being man-made. For being early in what is increasingly looking like a very accurate assertion, a Buzzfeed journalist wrote a hit-piece about Zero Hedge that resulted in us being banned from Twitter.

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  But here we stand, months later. We have since been reinstated on Twitter and the journalist in question has been  fired for plagiarism after BuzzFeed‘s new editor-in-chief, Mark Schoofs, published “A Note To Our Readers” detailing eleven instances where he lifted content from other publications without attribution going back to 2013, including his hit-piece against Zero Hedge.

  Our lab origin “conspiracy theory” has gained widespread support and is the focus of several international investigations into the CCP lab. And just this week, we found out that and the HIV link that we first reported on months ago, and followed up on last month, continues to only get stronger.

  As the mainstream media desperately plays catch-up, The New York Times released a piece yesterday called “How the Coronavirus Short-Circuits the Immune System” and said that “In a disturbing parallel to H.I.V., the coronavirus can cause a depletion of important immune cells, recent studies found.”

  “Now researchers have discovered yet another unpleasant surprise. In many patients hospitalized with the coronavirus, the immune system is threatened by a depletion of certain essential cells, suggesting eerie parallels with H.I.V.,” the article says. 

  The assertions could explain why few kids get sick and why a “cocktail” of treatments may be needed to bring the coronavirus under control, similar to how H.I.V. is treated. 

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  Dr. John Wherry, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania said that research now points to “very complex immunological signatures of the virus.” The NY Times wrote: 

  In May, Dr. Wherry and his colleagues posted online a paper showing a range of immune system defects in severely ill patients, including a loss of virus-fighting T cells in parts of the body.

  In a separate study, the investigators identified three patterns of immune defects, and concluded that T cells and B cells, which help orchestrate the immune response, were inactive in roughly 30 percent of the 71 Covid-19 patients they examined. None of the papers have yet been published or peer reviewed.

  Researchers in China have reported a similar depletion of T cells in critically ill patients, Dr. Wherry noted. But the emerging data could be difficult to interpret, he said — “like a Rorschach test.”

  “It is hard to separate the effects of simply being critically ill and in an I.C.U., which can cause havoc on your immune system,” Wherry continued.

  The researchers found that the immune system could actually become impaired because it overreacts to the virus, as happens in sepsis patients. They found that in Covid-19 patients, there was a marked increase in a molecule called IP10, which sends T cells to where they are needed in the body. Patients with coronavirus, as well as SARS and MERS, see a level of IP10 molecules that go up and stay up, which can create “chaotic signaling” in the body. 

  Dr. Adrian Hayday, an immunologist at King’s College London said: “It’s like Usain Bolt hearing the starting gun and starting to run. Then someone keeps firing the starting gun over and over. What would he do? He’d stop, confused and disoriented.”

  This causes some T-cells, usually prepared to destroy the virus, to become confused and act “abberrantly”. Recovery becomes tougher for those over 40 because the thymus gland, which is responsible for creating new T-cells, becomes less efficient. In kids, the thymus glad works much better. 

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  An overreaction of the immune system, causing things like a cytokine storm, may also be able to be treated by blocking a molecule called ID6, which helps organize immune cells. 

  “There clearly are some patients where IL-6 is elevated, and so suppressing it may help. But the core goal should be to restore and resurrect the immune system, not suppress it,” Hayday said. 

  Hayday believes an antiviral treatment may make the most sense, given the newfound information: “I have not lost one ounce of my optimism. A vaccine would be great. But with the logistics of its global rollout being so challenging, it’s comforting to think we may not depend on one.”

  Recall, we had previously written that the South China Morning Post reported a study by Chinese scientists found that the novel coronavirus uses the same strategy to evade attack from the human immune system as HIV. Specifically, both viruses remove marker molecules on the surface of an infected cell that are used by the immune system to identify invaders, we noted.

  The researchers warned that this commonality could mean Sars-CoV-2, the clinical name for the virus, could be around for some time, like HIV.

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  We wrote in May:

  And here is where things gets very messy for the frauds known as “fact-checkers” who – without any actual facts or knowledge – threw up all over our February report that the coronavirus shared genetic material with HIV: while the mainstream media did everything in its power to censor any suggestions that Covid and HIV having genetic similarities (after all who wants to be threatened by an airborne version of AIDS) now it is none other than the South China Morning Post which writes that “earlier studies found the spike protein of the new coronavirus had a structure that allowed it to enter many types of human cells and bind with them. The same structure was also found in HIV, but not in other coronaviruses found in animals such as bats and pangolins.”

  At this point, the New York Times and the SCMP appear to have pointed out all the exact same facts – that the coronavirus not only shares genetic material with HIV, but also evades and cripples the immune system in a similar way to HIV – that got the “highly respected” StatNews to accuse Zero Hedge of spreading an “infodemic.”

  As we said last month:

  “We wonder if StatNews author John Gregory will append his “analysis” now that actual “facts” have emerged showing that it’s not the infodemic we should be afraid of, but the censordemic.”

  

• Europe On Alert After Unknown Radioactivity Spike Detected Over Baltic Sea
  Europe On Alert After Unknown Radioactivity Spike Detected Over Baltic Sea
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 17:00

  Almost a year ago Russia admitted to releasing significant amounts of radiation into the air that triggered warning alerts in the region of the far north Arctic Circle port cities of Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk, after a failed weapons test involving a “small-scale nuclear reactor” that killed Russian scientists – which was believed connected to Russia’s hypersonics program. 

  We can’t help but recall that incident now with new reports of radiation sensors based in Scandinavia again picking up abnormal radioactivity levels in the air. Perhaps there’s some further failed weapons tests happening somewhere in the region?: 

  “Radiation sensors in Stockholm have detected higher-than-usual but still harmless levels of isotopes produced by nuclear fission, probably from somewhere on or near the Baltic Sea, a body running a worldwide network of the sensors said on Friday,” Reuters reports.

  22 /23 June 2020, RN #IMS station SEP63 #Sweden🇸🇪 detected 3isotopes; Cs-134, Cs-137 & Ru-103 associated w/Nuclear fission @ higher[ ] than usual levels (but not harmful for human health). The possible source region in the 72h preceding detection is shown in orange on the map. pic.twitter.com/ZeGsJa21TN

  — Lassina Zerbo (@SinaZerbo) June 26, 2020

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  The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) confirmed the higher than normal activity.

  Its ultra-sensitive networked sensors set up across Europe and the world are capable of picking up nuclear weapons testing when it occurs anywhere around the globe.

  As Reuters reports further, the Stockholm monitoring station “detected 3 isotopes; Cs-134, Cs-137 & Ru-103 associated with Nuclear fission at higher than usual levels,” according to CTBTO chief Lassina Zerbo, who made the announcement on Friday. 

  The additional particles were picked up by the sensors last Monday and Tuesday, and confirmed by the nuclear monitoring organization. Zerbo pointed out, however, that it wasn’t at levels harmful for human health.

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  “These are certainly nuclear fission products, most likely from a civil source,” the CTBTO said in a statement. “We are able to indicate the likely region of the source, but it’s outside the CTBTO’s mandate to identify the exact origin.” 

  The organization further speculated that the source could have come from anywhere spanning from western Russia to Baltic countries to parts of Scandinavia. 

  

• Is This The Next Big Short?
  Is This The Next Big Short?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 16:30

  As we reported previously, with commercial real estate failing to benefit from the rebound in overall risk over the past 3 months as a result of a tidal wave of retail bankruptcies, CMBX Series 6 – which back in March 2017 was dubbed the “Big Short 2.0” trade due to its substantial exposure to malls which were hurting long before the arrival of the pandemic…

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  … and especially the BBB- tranche has been stuck in purgatory, and after surging to 75, is back to where it was in mid-April as investors signal that the worst is yet to come for commercial real estate.

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  Of course, all of this is well-known by now, and it is safe to say that the riskier tranches of CMBX S6 are now fairly priced for even a downside scenario among retail outlets. But what about other CMBX issues, and is there another “Big Short” lurking among the various tranches, especially in the aftermath of the coronavirus shutdowns which will cripple not just retail outlets but everything from restaurants, to multi-family housing (as city renters flee for the suburbs), to offices and hotels.

  In our view, the answer to all those seeking the next Big Short is CMBX 9. This is what we wrote +:

  … with CMBX 6 now done, keep a close eye on CMBX 9. With its outlier exposure to hotels which have quickly emerged as the most impacted sector from the pandemic, this may well be the next big short.

  Fast forward a few weeks, when commercial real estate analytics specialist Trepp seems to agree with us.

  As Trepp’s Manus Clancy writes in a blog post on Friday, “the COVID-related volatility over the last three months has resulted in growing interest over CMBX as a way to take positions on US commercial real estate. This week we are back to hone in on CMBX 9.“

  Below are some of the reasons why CMBX 9 – which so far is off-limits to the Fed’s blatant bailouts of most, but not all, asset classes – may be the cleanest and safest way to bet on the devastation resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Courtesy of Trepp:

  What Makes CMBX 9 Unique?

  For one, it’s the only CMBX index backed by 2015 deals. Before the COVID-19 crisis began, the last meaningful hiccup in CMBS lending came in early 2016. In late 2015, volatility in the US equity markets picked up considerably and oil prices fell to under $30 a barrel. The sharp price decline in black gold led investors to fear a wave of forthcoming bankruptcies from energy companies.

  That fear led to a sharp repricing of credit in the leveraged loan market and that widening had a gravitational pull on CMBS, dragging spreads wider over the course of two months. That widening in CMBS led to an abrupt pause to CMBS lending leading to a standstill in issuance in Q1 2016.

  The 2015 CMBX 9 reference obligations consist of deals issued before any of that drama emerged. (The 2016 oil downturn in CMBS also led to several defaults of hotel and multifamily loans backed by “man-camps” in the shale regions of North Dakota and elsewhere.)

  Other Attributes of CMBX 9?

  It has the highest concentration of multifamily loans of any CMBX series with 14.7%. (The only other series that is close is CMBX 13 with 14.1%.)

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  CMBX 9 also has the highest concentration of hotel loans with 16.7%. (CMBX 11 is next with 13.8%.) In terms of protection premiums, CMBX 9 BBB- costs about 725 basis points to insure. That’s well inside of the 925 basis points for CMBX 8 BBB- but wider than the 675 for CMBX 10 BBB-. (Those spread levels are from IHS Markit).

  For comparison purposes, CMBX 9 BBB- ended 2019 with a spread of 310 basis points. So there has been about 400 basis points of widening since the beginning of the year.

  As of June 2020, 9.8% of the collateral behind CMBX 9 is 30 or more days delinquent. That puts the index slightly ahead of the average CMBS delinquency rate as of June.

  Another 6.6% of the loans behind CMBX 9 missed their June payment, but were not yet 30 days late – so there is room for the delinquency rate to move higher over the summer. (Those percentages include defeased loans in the denominator of the calculation.)

  The pool of defeased loans totals 4.5% by loan balance. In addition, 23% of the collateral pool is on servicer watchlist and another 5.1% of the collateral pool is with the special servicer.

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  CMBX Background

  For background, CMBX is a set of indexes administered by Markit Partners. There are 13 separate indexes – the first five were launched prior to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.

  When the markets are functioning, a new series is rolled out every 18 to 24 months by Markit. Each series allows an investor to buy protection (“go short”) or sell protection (“go long”) on a bucket of 25 separate tranches. An investor can go long or short on AAA, AA, A, BBB- or BB.  To buy protection, a buyer pays a fixed premium each month – the premium level is set when the index is launched. If selling protection, the seller is committing to “insuring” the buyer of protection against any bond writedowns.

  The price of the index fluctuates up and down – up when the perceived likelihood of losses is low and down when perceived creditworthiness is low. Since the COVID-19 crisis began, prices have been trending lower. The lower down the credit stack, the bigger the price drop.

  Within a series – say, CMBX 13 –  the same 25 deals are represented across all ratings classes. (So for the CMBX 13 AAA index, it will be the AAA tranches from 25 deals that serve as “reference obligations.”  For the CMBX 13 BBB-, it will be the BBB- tranches from the same 25 deals.)  All deals that serve as reference obligations are US conduit deals.

  For historical reference, for many of the deals used for reference obligations in 2006 and 2007 saw meaningful losses, with some deals seeing losses erase even the AA classes of some deals. (The ABX indexes got most of the attention during the GFC, but those that “shorted” CMBX BBB- from some of the pre-crisis CMBX indexes made out handsomely as well.) In fact, for CMBX 5 BBB-, 22 of the 25 reference tranches suffered 100% losses.

  * * *

  Finally, for those asking, yes there is a lot of potential downside for CMBX Series 9 BBB-. In fact, if the hotel world suffers a perfect storm of pent up defaults coupled with a second wave of covid which send the hotel industry into another tailspin, the potential downside here could be even greater than for Series 6.

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• How The Bottom-Up Bailout Will Impact The Future
  How The Bottom-Up Bailout Will Impact The Future
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 16:00

  Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

  The lockdown of the economy by government order is proving to be a blunder of epic proportions.  Coronavirus is still on the loose.  Yet, as a result of the lockdown, the economy’s been destroyed.

  Take the housing market, for instance.  According to a report from Black Knight, 4.3 million U.S. borrowers were more than 30 days late on a mortgage payment in May.  What’s more, over 8 percent of all U.S. mortgages were either past due or in foreclosure.

  The succession is real simple. 

  • First, the economy was shut down by government order.

  • Second, about 47 million people filed for unemployment claims over a 14-week period. 

  • Third, people stopped paying their mortgage.

  Here in the ‘land of fruits and nuts’ the trend is also moving in the wrong direction.  In May, 6.85 percent of California mortgages were estimated to be “non-current.”  This troubled-loan category is composed of mortgages with missed payments plus those formally in the foreclosure process.

  When the year started, only 2.1 percent of California mortgages were non-current.  Thus, in just six months, the rate of non-current mortgages has jumped 228 percent.  Nationally, 7.76 percent of mortgages are non-current.

  The housing market’s difficulties typify the consequences of an overleveraged economy.  With vast numbers of people up to their eyeballs in debt, all it took was a brief pause in cash flows and the debt structure broke down.  To add insult, this is a government sponsored problem…

  What Comes Next?

  Through the wheelings and dealings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two government sponsored enterprises, lenders have an endless demand for mortgages.  Fannie and Freddie buy up the mortgages from lenders and either hold them in their portfolios or package them up into mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

  If you recall, Fannie and Freddie were given a several hundred billion dollar bailout during the 2008-09 financial crisis.  Now, just over a decade later, the fermentations of another bailout are brewing.  The CARES Act was merely the warm up.

  As noted above, mortgage payment fundamentals have rapidly turned negative.  Over the next several months the progression will advance from late and missed payments to mortgage defaults and foreclosures.

  Without question, there will be another monster bailout.  But this bailout is bigger than just Fannie and Freddie or even the big banks.  This bailout is about a futile attempt to paper over American homelessness and poverty.  But what comes next?

  Almost no one has considered the consequences of another monster bailout.  Will it be inflationary?  What will it do to the economy?  What will it do to the stock market?  How will it influence the price of gold or the yield on the 10-Year Treasury note?

  These questions are not met with obvious answers.  We’ve been contemplating them for years without coming to any satisfying conclusions.  The best we can do is draw from the past, consider what’s different about the present, and make interpolations and guesses about impacts to the future.

  Using this methodology, we offer the following ruminations…

  How the Bottom Up Bailout Will Impact the Future

  The 2008-09 mortgage bailout marked the start of a major bull market in U.S. stocks.  This was partly because the Fed pushed the federal funds rate to zero and swapped cash for the trash toxic assets of securitized mortgage debt.  This flooded the financial system with liquidity.

  The future is now approaching.  But what will the future bring?  Namely, what type of bailout will the Fed, in concert with the Treasury, deliver?  Will it be another top down bailout similar to 2008-09?  Or will it be something entirely different?

  We contend that it will be something dramatically different.  This time around it’s no longer politically expedient for only the government sponsored enterprises and the big banks to get a bailout.  The people are on to the Fed’s money games and demand a bailout too.

  By this, the bailout will be from the bottom up.  The Treasury will provide cash stimulus check payments – or directly credit bank accounts – to renters and homeowners so they can share in the spoils of a bailout.

  Fannie and Freddie already have CARES Act programs to help those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic…including a moratorium on foreclosure and eviction until at least August 21, 2020.  What you may not know is that this moratorium date has already been extended twice.  Perhaps it’ll continue to be extended until ample government stimulus checks are beings sent out to the American populace on a monthly basis.

  Our guess is that this sort of bottom up bailout will be less bullish for stocks.  Though it will have a much more dramatic effect on consumer price inflation.  In other words, the dollar will lose purchasing power against real goods and services.  And eventually it’ll buckle, along with American living standards.

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  Moreover, the fantasyland world where the government pays everyone’s rent and mortgage, along with free school, free drugs, and free food, will be less sublime than what’s advertised. 

  Countless governments have tried throughout the ages.  Without fail, these pursuits of miracles and purple fairy dust solutions always end in tears.