Today’s News 13th October 2019

  • China's Modern Blueprint For Global Power
    China’s Modern Blueprint For Global Power

    Authored by Lawrence Franklin via The Gatestone Institute,

    The People’s Republic of China, which celebrated its 70th anniversary on October 1, is led by the Chinese Communist Party’s General Secretary, President Xi Jinping. In his speeches, Xi often refers to “Qiang Zhong Gwo Meng” (“the Chinese dream“), a code phrase for the era of rejuvenation when China will eventually overtake the United States as the most powerful nation in the world.

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    Xi claims that China offers the world a different type of rising global leader — a “guiding power.”

    Beijing apologists depict China as a non-predatory power, comparing it favorably to Europe’s colonial countries in the past and to today’s United States.

    Similarly, the state-controlled Chinese media depict Chinese statecraft as being based on and reflecting ancient Confucian ethics:

    Only when things are investigated is knowledge extended; only when knowledge is extended are thoughts sincere; only when thoughts are sincere are minds rectified; only when minds are rectified are the characters of persons cultivated; only when character is cultivated are our families regulated; only when families are regulated are states well governed; only when states are well governed is there peace in the world.

    This portrayal is part of China’s traditional self-image as “Jungwo” (the “Middle Kingdom”), a society synonymous with “civilization,” as opposed to the “barbarians” beyond its borders. Such was the impetus for China’s Great Wall: to keep out uncultured barbarians.

    In spite of China’s pretense of being a new type of global power, Beijing’s attempt to restore its historical role as a world leader involves ancient Chinese political concepts. Xi’s call for China’s “rejuvenation,” for instance, is a signal to his people that under the leadership of the Communist Party, the national humiliations endured during the 19th and 20th centuries will be redressed.

    Xi’s nationalist sentiment echoes the ideas of Sun Yat-sen, the “founding father” and first president of the Chinese Republic. Sun called for the embrace of “Min-ts’u” (“people’s nationalism”) to redeem the nation from its status as a “hypo-colony” ruled by many colonial masters, including tiny Portugal, which dominated the South China Sea.

    Xi’s doctrine includes rejecting as illegitimate any “unequal treaties” forced on China by Euro-Atlantic powers, such as Great Britain’s imposition of the McMahon Line, which awarded to the British Crown Colony of India hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of Chinese territory. China never recognized the McMahon Line; it was among the factors ultimately leading to an India-China War in 1962 and periodic skirmishes ever since.

    This determination to retrieve Chinese territory might be rooted in Xi’s sense of humiliation, still felt among Chinese patriots of all political persuasions, who harbor an enduring resentment over such Euro-Atlantic encroachment.

    Xi’s posture is also possibly an indirect warning to the West, which may be harboring a desire to assist the people of Hong Kong in their drive for more autonomy from Beijing. This warning underscores the willingness of the Chinese Communist leadership to engage the United States in a limited military conflict, should the US support Hong Kong’s or Taiwan’s official independence from China or if it positions offensive strategic-weapons systems on those lands.

    In his essay, “If You Want Peace Prepare for War” — using the famous quote from the ancient Roman strategist, Publius Flavius Renatus — Chinese author Li Mingfu states that if the US attempts to block the Chinese Motherland’s unification with Taiwan, China is ready militarily to force unification.

    There can be little doubt that Xi’s China is deeply committed to the retrieval of Formosa (Taiwan) as an integral part of the Chinese patrimony. Historically, China risked war with Japan after Japanese expeditions to the island province. China also has resisted past attempts by Britain to weaken its hold on Tibet. Moreover, despite fierce resistance to Russia’s 19th century invasions in the northwestern province of Xinjiang (Sinkiang), China lost control of the region. That event also might help to explain for China’s willingness to invite universal condemnation for its massive human-rights violations against the region’s Uighur Muslim population, rather than risk again losing control of the province to Islamist independence movements.

    Chinese military exercises, new weapons systems and the surreptitious militarization of several landfill and disputed islands in the South China Sea, all indicate that Beijing intends to become — at the very least — East Asia’s dominant regional power, thereby supplanting the US as the pre-eminent authority in the Western Pacific Ocean. According to one American analyst on Chinese military affairs, in 2018 alone, China conducted approximately 100 military exercises with 17 countries.

    In recent years, the Chinese Navy has been demonstrating better precision targeting by its anti-ship missile system, the presumed targets being US aircraft carriers. The Chinese Air Force now utilizes runways built on some of the disputed islands, and has also landed heavy bombers there.

    In addition, the Chinese also have deployed anti-ship missiles and jet fighter planes on disputed islands. These developments suggest that in the event of a crisis or conflict with the West and its Asian allies, the Chinese Communist Party’s Military Commission is planning to leapfrog any possible Free World strategy to confine China’s naval and air assets to the Chinese mainland.

    China’s economic model, according to which a socialist regime will for the first time surpass the world’s greatest capitalist enterprise, also has historical roots. For millennia, China was the premier power in Asia, if not the world. During that time, China’s diplomacy centered on the “Tributary System,” whereby regional states recognized the superiority of Chinese Civilization.”

    Many of China’s neighboring states, such as Annam (Northern Vietnam), Korea and even Japan, for a period, rendered an annual tribute to the Chinese imperial court, acknowledging the imperial dynasty’s august standing under heaven. The emperor’s dynastic administration would in turn provide generous support for compliant neighboring countries. Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative bears some — dubious — resemblance to the tributary system of dynastic China. This initiative has China providing the income and expertise to build the logistical infrastructure of a recipient nation, which in turn imports Chinese goods and services employing that new infrastructure. Worse, however, China lends countries money; then when the country cannot repay the debt, China helps itself to resources or infrastructure or whatever, in a “debt-trap.”

    To date, it appears that the strategic objective of China to establish regional primacy in the Western Pacific, and possibly in Asia, is militarily, politically and economically achievable. The world, however, is no longer under any illusions about China’s acquisitive intent.

    US President Donald J. Trump also indicated recently — during his September 24 address to the UN General Assembly — that America harbors no illusions about China’s unbridled ambitions.

    Trump said, in part:

    “In 2001, China was admitted to the World Trade Organization. Our leaders then argued that this decision would compel China to liberalize its economy and strengthen protections to provide things that were unacceptable to us, and for private property and for the rule of law. Two decades later, this theory has been tested and proven completely wrong.

    “Not only has China declined to adopt promised reforms, it has embraced an economic model dependent on massive market barriers, heavy state subsidies, currency manipulation, product dumping, forced technology transfers, and the theft of intellectual property and also trade secrets on a grand scale…

    “For years, these abuses were tolerated, ignored, or even encouraged. Globalism exerted a religious pull over past leaders, causing them to ignore their own national interests.

    “But as far as America is concerned, those days are over. To confront these unfair practices, I placed massive tariffs on more than $500 billion worth of Chinese-made goods. Already, as a result of these tariffs, supply chains are relocating back to America and to other nations, and billions of dollars are being paid to our Treasury.

    “The American people are absolutely committed to restoring balance to our relationship with China. Hopefully, we can reach an agreement that would be beneficial for both countries…

    “As we endeavor to stabilize our relationship, we’re also carefully monitoring the situation in Hong Kong. The world fully expects that the Chinese government will honor its binding treaty, made with the British and registered with the United Nations, in which China commits to protect Hong Kong’s freedom, legal system, and democratic ways of life. How China chooses to handle the situation will say a great deal about its role in the world in the future…”

    It is imperative for the administration in Washington to continue to exert maximum pressure on Beijing, to prevent China’s hegemonic aims being realized.

    *  *  *

    Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/12/2019 – 23:50

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  • Visualizing The Rise And Fall Of Social Media Platforms
    Visualizing The Rise And Fall Of Social Media Platforms

    Since its inception, the internet has played a pivotal role in connecting people across the globe, including in remote locations.

    While the foundational need for human connection hasn’t changed, Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley points out that the platforms and technology continue to evolve, even today. Faster internet connections and mobile devices have made social networks a ubiquitous part of our lives, with the time spent on social media each day creeping ever upward.

    The Scoreboard Today

    Over the last 15 years, billions of people around the world have jumped onto the social media bandwagon – and platforms have battled for our attention spans by inventing (and sometimes flat-out stealing) features to keep people engaged.

    Here’s a snapshot of where things stand today:

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    Today’s entertaining video, from the Data is Beautiful YouTube channel, is a look back at the rise and fall of social media platforms – and possibly a glimpse at the future of social media as well.

    Below we respond to some key questions and observations raised by this video overview.

    Points of Interest

    1. What is QZone?

    Qzone is China’s largest social network. The platform originally evolved as a sort of blogging service that sprang from QQ, China’s seminal instant messaging service. While Qzone is still one of the world’s largest social media sites – it still attracts around half a billion users per month – WeChat is now the service of choice for almost everyone in China with a smartphone.

    2. LinkedIn has been around for a long time.

    It’s true. LinkedIn, which hasn’t left the top 10 list since 2003, is a textbook example of a slow and steady growth strategy paying off.

    While some networks experience swings in their user base or show a boom and bust growth pattern, LinkedIn has grown every single year since it was launched. Surprisingly, that growth is still clocking in at impressive rates. In 2019, for example, LinkedIn reported a 24% increase in sessions on their platform.

    3. Will Facebook ever lose its top spot?

    Never say never, but not anytime soon. Since 2008, Facebook has been far and away the most popular social network on the planet. If you include Facebook’s bundled services, over 2 billion people use their network each day. The company has used acquisitions and aggressive feature implementation to keep the company at the forefront of the battle for attention. Facebook itself is under a lot of scrutiny due to growing privacy concerns, but Instagram and WhatsApp are more popular than ever.

    4. What Happened to Snapchat?

    In 2016, Snapchat had thoroughly conquered the Gen Z demographic and was on a trajectory to becoming one of the top social networks. Facebook, sensing their position being challenged by this upstart company, took the bold step of cloning Snapchat’s features and integrating them into Instagram (even lifting the name “stories” in the process). The move paid off for Facebook and the video above shows Instagram’s user base taking off in 2016, fueled by these new features.

    Even though Facebook took some of the wind out of Snapchat’s sails, the company never stopped growing. Earlier this year, Snapchat announced modest growth as its base of daily active users rose to 190 million. For advertisers looking to reach the 18-35 age demographic, Snapchat could still be a compelling option.

    5. Why is TikTok so popular now?

    The simple answer is that short-form video is extremely popular right now, and TikTok has features that make sharing fun. The average user of TikTok (and its Chinese counterpart, DouYin) spends a staggering 52 minutes per day on the app.

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    Also propelling its growth is the company’s massive marketing budget. TikTok spent $1 billon last year on advertising in the U.S., and is currently burning through around $3 million per day to get people onto their platform. One looming question for the China-based company is not whether Facebook will co-opt their features, but when.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/12/2019 – 23:20

  • The CIA Versus Donald J. Trump
    The CIA Versus Donald J. Trump

    Authored by Jacob Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

    It’s both pathetic and laughable that Democrats, the mainstream press, and Trump critics are referring to the CIA agent who turned in Trump for his telephone call with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky as a “whistleblower.”

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    It’s pathetic because it denigrates real whistleblowers like Edward Snowden, John Kiriakou, Chelsea Manning, Thomas Drake, and William Binney. Those people are the courageous ones. They risked their careers, their liberty, and even their lives to expose criminal wrongdoing within the national-security state agencies they were working for.

    That’s not what that supposed CIA agent did when he filed his complaint against Trump. He didn’t blow the whistle on his agency, the CIA, by exposing some secret dark-side practices, such as MK-Ultra drug experimentation on unsuspecting Americans, secret assassinations of Americans, secret assets within the mainstream press, or secret destruction of torture videotapes of incarcerated inmates at a top-secret CIA prison center in some former Soviet-bloc country.

    If he had done that, the CIA would have come after him with all guns blaring, just as the national-security establishment has gone after Snowden and those other genuine whistleblowers. In fact, that’s how one can usually identify a genuine whistleblower. That’s obviously not happening here. Instead, the national-security establishment is hailing this “whistleblower” as being a brave and courageous hero for disclosing supposed wrongdoing by Trump, not by the CIA.

    That anti-Trump CIA agent isn’t a whistleblower at all. Instead, he’s nothing more than a spy and a snitch. He is obviously a spy. After all, he works for the CIA, the premier spy agency in the world. And by turning in Trump in an obvious attempt to get him into trouble, he’s also obviously a snitch.

    A “gotcha” moment

    In fact, the entire episode has a “gotcha” feeling to it. For almost three years, Americans have been made to suffer under a constant stream of speeches, commentaries, op-eds, and editorials about what Trump rightly called the “collusion delusion” theory. Democrats, the mainstream press, and Trump critics were 100 percent certain that their real-life hero Robert Mueller, the special counsel, was going to find evidence that Trump conspired with Russian officials to deny Hillary Clinton her rightful place as president of the United States. They had impeachment plans set in place, ready to go.

    And then Mueller dashed their hopes. His report disclosed that the collusion delusion was the biggest conspiracy theory in U.S. history, one openly promoted by Democrats, the mainstream press, and Trump critics on a daily basis for almost three years.

    All they needed and wanted was an opportunity — any opportunity — to apply their impeachment process to another set of a facts. Fortunately for them, Trump himself gave them that opportunity. That supposed CIA agent was ready with a “gotcha!” and proceeded to snitch on Trump with his “whistleblower” complaint.

    Trump is obviously a smart man, both businesswise and politically. But to make that telephone call to Zelensky and request him to investigate Joe Biden, while holding up a foreign aid package to Ukraine, immediately after being exonerated by Mueller of the collusion delusion allegation, was about the dumbest thing he could do. How could he not realize that his enemies would be looking for any opportunity to set their impeachment process into motion against him?

    The likely explanation lies with arrogance and hubris. After Trump got his exoneration on the collusion delusion accusation, he figured that he was now all-powerful and could do whatever he wanted. The fact that he was, at the same time, exercising such dictatorial powers as raising tariffs, starting trade wars, building his Berlin Wall along the border, and imposing sanctions and embargoes, all without the consent of Congress, was also making him feel omnipotent and untouchable. His admiration for foreign dictators no doubt filled his mind with the same sense of totalitarian, untouchable power.

    That’s what likely caused Trump to give his enemies the “gotcha” episode for which they were clearly thirsting. Trump turned out to be his own very worst enemy.

    National security enmity toward Trump

    Despite his campaign rhetoric against “endless wars,” Trump has kept U.S. troops in Afghanistan and the Middle East, where they have continued to kill, die, and wreak massive destruction. He has also authorized the continuation of the Pentagon’s and CIA’s assassination program. He has also continued the Pentagon’s and CIA’s indefinite detention and torture center at Guantanamo Bay. He has done nothing to rein in the NSA and its secret surveillance schemes. The fact is that Trump’s term in office, despite his “America First” rhetoric, has proven to be nothing more than a continuation of the Bush-Obama administrations.

    That’s what he should be impeached for, but unfortunately his critics feel that those high crimes don’t rise to the level of impeachable offenses.

    But it’s also true that Trump has failed to demonstrate the complete deference to authority of the national-security establishment that Hillary Clinton and other Washington, D.C., political elites have. Trump’s failure to bend the knee to the national-security establishment made him suspect from the very beginning, especially since the Pentagon, the CIA, the NSA, and the FBI were certain that their chosen candidate, Hillary Clinton, was going to be the new president.

    Thus, there has been a war between Trump and the national-security establishment from even before he was elected and especially after he was elected. In a remarkable moment of candor and honesty, Congressman Charles Schumer, commenting on the war between Trump and the national-security establishment, stated, “Let me tell you: You take on the intelligence community — they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you.”

    One way of getting back at Trump is, of course, through assassination, a power that the Supreme Court has confirmed that the national-security state wields against American citizens, so long it is necessary to protect “national security.”

    Another way of getting back at Trump is smear tactics through the use of assets within the mainstream press. The CIA’s Operation Mockingbird comes to mind.

    Coup through impeachment 

    And other option to get back at Trump is through impeachment and conviction, especially through assets within Congress. But before any collusion-delusion proponent cries “conspiracy theory,” recall that President Eisenhower warned Americans in his 1961 Farewell Address about the threat that the “military-industrial complex” poses to the liberties and democratic processes of the American people. Actually, Ike planned to use the term “military-industrial-congressional complex” but changed his mind at the last minute. He was referring to the intimate, integrated relationship between members of Congress and the Pentagon, CIA, and NSA. At the risk of belaboring the obvious, Eisenhower is not perceived to be a “conspiracy theorist,” the term that the CIA popularized to keep people from examining the Kennedy assassination too closely.

    Speaking of the Kennedy assassination, early in his administration Trump announced that he intended to comply with the deadline for releasing the CIA’s long-secret records relating to the assassination. At the very last minute, Trump folded and granted the CIA’s request for continued secrecy.

    Why did Trump do that?

    One possibility is that he became convinced that “national security” would be jeopardized if the American people were to see the CIA’s long-secret JFK assassination records.

    Another possibility is that he struck some sort of secret negotiated deal with the CIA.

    A third possibility is that he figured that if he would ingratiate himself with the CIA in the hope that they would leave him alone. If that was the case, Trump might well go down as one of the most naïve presidents in history.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/12/2019 – 22:50

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  • American STD Cases Rise To Record High
    American STD Cases Rise To Record High

    Health officals are voicing serious concern after it emerged that the U.S. is experiencing a significant spike in sexually transmitted diseases.

    As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, 2.4 million cases of gonorrhea, chlamydia and syphilis combined were recorded in 2018, an all-time high. The data was part of the Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance Report which was published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday. The scale of the problem can be seen by the pace of new infections documented since 2014. Chlamydia went up 19 percent, gonorrhea rose 63 percent, primary and secondary syphilis grew 71 percent while congenital syphilis soared 185 percent.

    Numerous factors are being blamed for the increase, particularly funding cuts for local health departments that have caused staff shortages and clinic closures, as well as a decrease in condom usage. Reuters quoted the CDC’s directer of STD Prevention, Gail Bohan, who sad that “the resurgence of syphilis, and particularly congenital syphilis, is not an arbitrary event, but rather a symptom of a deteriorating public health infrastructure and lack of access to health care.”

    Infographic: U.S. STD Cases Rise To Record High  | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    That is resulting in less people going to get screened despite the fact that antibiotics can cure chlamydia, gonorrhea and syphilis.

    Cases are highest among adolescents and young adults with over half occurring among young people aged between 15 and 24.

    The CDC called for urgent action to curb the problem, with the report stating that “it is imperative that federal, state and local programs employ strategies that maximize long-term population impact by reducing STD incidence and promoting sexual, reproductive, maternal, and infant health”.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/12/2019 – 22:20

  • Will American Exceptionalism Rise Again?
    Will American Exceptionalism Rise Again?

    Authored by Richard Moser via Counterpunch.org,

    American Exceptionalism remains one of the innermost ideas shaping our national identity and still lies behind all of the war stories used to justify US foreign policy. Exceptionalism has been a part of American culture since the very first European settlers landed.

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    At its core, exceptionalism places America outside of normal history into a category of its own. Our initial “escape” from history followed two interrelated tracks: one was the religious radicalism of the Puritans, the other was the frontier experience. Both paths were the warpath.

    The early settlers believed that they were “chosen” — blessed by a special relationship to their God. They viewed their “errand in the wilderness” as a holy mission destined to bring a new and better way of life to the world. God’s judgment on their progress was revealed in the bounty of a harvest or the outcome of a war.

    Exceptionalism was not a free-floating idea but was forged into a lasting culture by the frontier wars aimed at the elimination or assimilation of native people and the conquest of land. America’s frontier history produced a lasting mythology that popularized empire and white settler culture while cloaking their many contradictions.

    I know it is hard to believe that the Puritans are still camped out in our minds. The old religious radicalism has taken modern form in the liberal-sounding belief that the US military is a “force for good (read God) in the world.” The double-edged sword of exceptionalism traps us into repeating history: our high moral standards and special role in the world gives us license for wars and aggressions. It is the liberal elements of exceptionalism that are most seductive, most difficult to wrap our heads around, and the most effective at winning our consent to war.

    Exceptionalism Wins Our Consent to War With A One-Two Punch

    On the one hand, we have the “hard” exceptionalism like that of the Cold War (New and Old) and the War on Terrorism. These war stories revolve around a rigid binary of good and evil. After 9/11, in scores of speeches, George W. Bush repeated the mantra that there were “no gray areas” in the struggle between good and evil.

    On the other hand, “soft” exceptionalism takes a slightly different tack by appealing to the liberal in us. Stories of rescue, protection, democracy and humanitarian efforts assure us of our goodness. Obama mastered this narrative by claiming the US had a “duty to protect” the weak and vulnerable in places like Libya.

    These two strains of war stories are the narrative one-two punch, winning our consent to war and empire.

    Here is how war propaganda works: if authority figures in government and media denounce foreign leaders or countries or immigrants as an evil threat and repeat it thousands of times, they do not even have to say, “We are the chosen people destined to bring light to the world.” They know that millions of Americans will unconsciously refer to the exceptionalist code by default because it’s so deeply embedded in our culture. Once made brave by our exceptional character and sense of superiority, the next moves are war, violence and white supremacy.

    Myth Meets the American War in Vietnam

    The Vietnam War, and the resistance to it, profoundly challenged all existing war stories. At the heart of this disruption was the soldier’s revolt. Thousands of US soldiers and veterans came to oppose the very war they fought in. An anti-war movement inside the military was totally unprecedented in US history. The war-makers have been scrambling to repair the damage ever since.

    Following the defeat of US forces in Vietnam, the elites shifted gears. The idea that the US could create a new democratic nation — South Vietnam — was an utter illusion that no amount of fire-power could overcome. In truth, the US selected a series of petty tyrants to rule that could never win the allegiance of the Vietnamese people because they were the transparent puppets of American interests. The ruling class learned a lesson that forced them to abandon the liberal veneer of “nation-building.”

    The Next Generation of War Stories: From “Noble Cause” to “Humanitarian War.” 

    Ronald Regan tried to repair the damaged narratives by recasting the Vietnam War as a “Noble Cause.” The Noble Cause appealed to people hurt and confused by the US defeat,  as well as the unrepentant war-makers, because it attempted to restore the old good vs. evil narrative of exceptionalism. For Regan, America needed to rediscover its original mission as a “city on a hill” — a shining example to the world. Every single President since has repeated that faith.

    The Noble Cause narrative was reproduced in numerous bad movies and dubious academic studies that tried to refight the war (and win this time!). Its primary function was to restore exceptionalism in the minds of the American people. While Regan succeeded to a considerable degree — as we can see in the pro-war policy of both corporate parties  — “nation-building” never recovered its power as a military strategy or war story.

    The next facade was Clinton’s “humanitarian war.” Humanitarian war attempted to relight the liberal beacon by replacing the problems of nation-building with the paternalistic do-gooding of a superior culture and country. In effect, the imperialists recycled the 19th Century war story of “Manifest Destiny” or “White Man’s Burden.” That “burden” was the supposed duty of white people to lift lesser people up to the standards of western civilization — even if that required a lot of killing.

    This kind of racist thinking legitimized the US overseas empire at its birth. Maybe it would work again in empires’ old age?

    From the “War on Terrorism” to the “Responsibility to Protect.”  

    After the shock of 9/11 the narrative shifted again. Bush’s “global war on terrorism” reactivated the good vs. evil framing of the Cold War. The “war on terror” was an incoherent military or political strategy except for its promise of forever wars.

    Just as the Cold War was a “long twilight struggle” against an elusive but ruthless communist enemy, terrorists might be anywhere and everywhere and do anything. And, like the fight against communism, the war on terrorism would require the US to wage aggressive wars, launch preemptive strikes, use covert activities and dodge both international law and the US Constitution.

    9/11 also tapped into deeply-rooted nationalistic and patriotic desires among everyday people to protect and serve their country. The first attack on US soil in modern memory powerfully restored the old binary: when faced with unspeakable evil, the US military became a “force for good in the world.” It’s easy to forget just how potent the combination is and how it led us into the War in Iraq. According to The Washington Post:

    Nearing the second anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, seven in 10 Americans continue to believe that Iraq’s Saddam Hussein had a role in the attacks, even though the Bush administration and congressional investigators say they have no evidence of this.

    The mythology is so deep that at first the people, soldiers especially, just had to believe there was a good reason to attack Iraq. So we fell back on exceptionalism despite the total absence of evidence. Of course Bush made no attempt to correct this misinformation. The myth served him too well — as did the official propaganda campaign claiming Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.

    But in due course, some of the faithful became doubters. A peace movement of global proportions took shape. But in the US far too much of what appeared as resistance was driven by narrow partisan opposition to Republicans rather than principled opposition to war and empire.

    But fear not war-makers — Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton came to the rescue! As they continued Bush’s wars in the Middle East and expanded the war zone to include Libya, Syria and then all of Africa, they sweetened “humanitarian war” with a heaping dose of cool-coated “Responsibility to Protect.” Once again, American goodness and innocence made the medicine go down and our wars raged on.

    Obama restored legitimacy to the empire so effectively that it took years for the illegal, immoral, racist and “unwinnable” wars to reveal themselves to the public. I was told by one of the leaders of About Face: Veterans Against War that they almost had to close shop after Obama was elected because their donor base dried up. Obama’s hope was our dope. Just as the daze was finally lifting, Trump started to take the mask off.

    Is The Mask Off?

    Today’s we face an empire with the mask half off. Trump’s doctrine — “We are not nation-building again, we are killing terrorists.” — is a revealing take on military trends that began with the first US – Afghan War (1978-1992). US leaders gave up nation-building and opted for failed states and political chaos instead of the strong states that nation-building, or its illusion, required. The US military began to rely on mercenaries and terrorists to replace the American citizen-soldier. The soldier revolt of the Vietnam Era already proved that everyday Americans were an unreliable force to achieve imperial ambitions.

    Nothing rips the mask off of the humanitarian justifications better than the actual experience of combat in a war for oil and power — so the war managers tried to reduce combat exposure to a few. And they succeeded. The number of official US troops abroad reached a 60-year low by 2017. Even still a new resistance movement of veterans is gathering steam.

    Can the mask be put back on? It’s hard to say, because as The Nation reports, Americans from a wide spectrum of political positions are tired of perpetual war.

    Can the “Green New Military” Put The Mask Back On? 

    The recycled imperial justifications of the past are losing their power: Manifest Destiny, White Mans’ Burden, leader of the free world, nation-building, humanitarian war, war against terrorism, responsibility to protect — what’s next? If only the military could be seen as saviors once again.

    A last-ditch effort to postpone the collapse of the liberal versions of war stories might just be the “Green New Military.” Elizabeth Warren’s policy claims, “Our military can help lead the fight in combating climate change.” It’s a wild claim that contradicts all evidence unless she is also calling for an end to regime-change wars, the New Cold War and the scaling down of our foreign bases. Instead, Warren is all about combat readiness. She did not invent this — the Pentagon had already embraced the new rhetoric. Given that the Working Families Party and some influential progressives have already signaled their willingness to accept Warren as a candidate, she might just silence dissent as effectively as Obama once did.

    But, the lie is paper-thin: “There is no such thing as a Green War.” You can fool some of the people all the time and all the people some of the time but you cannot fool mother nature one little bit. War and climate change are deeply connected and ultimately there is no way to hide that.

    The New Cold War and More of The Same Old Wars

    So far the New Cold War against Russia and China has recycled the anti-communist conspiracy of the old Cold War into the xenophobic conspiracy theory of Russia-gate. Even a trusted tool like Mueller could not make it work as a coherent narrative but no matter — the US did not skip a beat in building up military bases on Russia’s borders.

    The media and political attacks on Russia or China or immigrants, or Iran or Syria are likely to continue because propagandists cannot activate the exceptionalist code without an evil enemy. Still, it takes more than evil. An effective war story for the US ruling class must project the liberal ideas of helping, protection, saving and the spread of democracy in order to engineer mass consent to war. Hence the need for “Humanitarian War,” “Duty to Protect” or maybe the”Green New Military.”

    Let anyone propose a retreat from any battlefield and the “humanitarian” war cry will rally the empire’s pawns and savior-types. If we practice our exceptionalism religiously — and religion it is — then the US empire will never ever pull back from any war at any time. There is always someone for the empire to “protect and save:” from the “Noble Savages” and innocent white settlers of the frontier, to the Vietnamese Catholics, to the women of Afghanistan, to the Kurds of Syria.

    We so want to see our wars as a morality play, just as the Puritans did, but the empire is all about power and profit.

    “War is the Continuation of Politics by Other Means.” — Carl von Clausewitz

    All the Big Brass study Clausewitz because he is the founder of western military science — but they are so blinded by the dilemmas of empire that they make a mess of his central teaching: War is politics.

    None of the war narratives and none of the wars can solve the most important question of politics: governance. Who will govern the colonies? The overwhelming verdict of history is this: colonies cannot be democratically or humanely governed as long as they are colonies. Until the empire retreats its heavy hand will rule in places like Afghanistan.

    The empire is reaching the limits of exceptionalism as both war narrative and national mythology. This is why our rulers are forced to desperate measures: perpetual war, occupation, intense propaganda campaigns like Russia-gate, the reliance on mercenaries and terrorists, and the abuse and betrayal of their own soldiers.

    Just as damning to the war machine is the collapse of conventional ideas about victory and defeat. The US military can no longer “win.” The question of victory is important on a deep cultural level. According to the original mythology, the outcome of wars waged by “the chosen people” are an indication of God’s favor or disfavor. In modern terms, defeat delegitimizes the state. Endless war is no substitute for “victory.”

    But it’s not military victory we want. Our victory will be in ending war, dismantling the empire, abolishing the vast militarized penal system and stopping irreparable climate chaos. Our resistance will create a new narrative but it can only be written when millions of people become the authors of their own history.

    The empire is slipping into decline and chaos – one way or another. Will we be actors deciding the fate of the American Empire or will it’s collapse dictate our fate? But these wars will, sooner or later, become the graveyard of empire — or else America is truly exceptional and we really are God’s chosen people.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/12/2019 – 21:50

  • Retail Investors Are Acting As If A Financial Crisis Is Just Around The Corner
    Retail Investors Are Acting As If A Financial Crisis Is Just Around The Corner

    While algos continue to zig and zag, daytraing the barrage of optimistic and pessimistic US-China trade deal headlines, and stock buybacks are set for another record, with a recent report finding that cumulative buybacks YTD are already up +20% YoY compared to 2018 which was already a record year for stock buybacks…

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    … while insiders quietly dump stock, selling an estimated $26BN of their own stock in 2019, the fastest pace since the year 2000, when executives sold $37bn of stock amid the giddy highs of the dotcom bubble…

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    … retail investors are acting as if a financial crisis is just around the corner.

    A recent report by Bank of America found that retail investors haven’t been this bearish since the collapse of Lehman. The bank looked at money market fund flows, which attracted a near record $322 billion in the past 6 months, the largest since the second half of 2008 when the global financial crisis was unleashed.

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    As BofA explains, this means that instead of putting their money to work, investors are doing the opposite and raising cash at a furious pace, expecting a market crash, even though – just like in like 2007 and 08 – rates are now falling, while the S&P 500 put-call ratio has soared to the highest since April 10.

    One explanation according to BofA’s chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, is that investors are suffering from “bearish paralysis,” driven by unresolved issues such as the trade war, Brexit, the Trump impeachment investigation and recession fears. Underscoring this point, in the week ending Oct. 9, investors continued to aggressively exit equity funds globally, with outflows reaching $9.8 billion according to EPFR data, while allocating cash to safe havens, with bond funds enjoying $11.1 billion of inflows.

    Picking up on this there, JPMorgan’s Nick Panagirtzoglou writes that the bearishness of retail investors with respect to equity funds has been getting progressively worse during the course of 2019, which as captured in the chart below, shows that retail investors globally sold more equity funds in Q3 vs. Q2 and in Q2 vs. Q1.

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    To the extent that this growing equity fund selling is indicative of retail investors’ confidence, or lack thereof, the JPM strategist writes that “the picture above points to waning consumer confidence reinforcing the message from the negative trend in the economic measure of Figure 3” which shows that after peaking in 2017, consumer confidence has stumbled and is now at 3 year lows.

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    Such diminishing consumer confidence would naturally raise further expectations of recession by both economists and markets given the key role the consumer is playing in gauging recession risks.

    Indeed, the release of the October 2019 Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey which every month presents economists’ forecasts for the US economy, showed a rise in the average probability of a US recession taking place in 2020 to 39%, surpassing the previous high recorded in the February 2019 survey. This 39% probability is also the highest for this cycle. This is shown in the next chart, which depicts the probability of a US recession taking place in different years based on successive Blue Chip Economic Indicators monthly surveys conducted since 2017. There has been an upward shift in the recession probabilities pattern after each successive year and the current 39% US recession probability represents the highest reading for this cycle.

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    What to the JPM strategist is also striking is that in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys, the probabilities of a US recession taking place in 2020 based on the monthly surveys conducted during the course of 2019 are significantly higher that the probabilities of a US recession taking place in 2008 based on the monthly surveys conducted during the course of 2007.

    In other words, according to at least one measure, what is coming will be even worse compared to the financial crisis – after all, this time economists see what’s coming; that nobody is acting on it yet, is a different matter.

    As Panigirtzoglou recounts, a decade ago, “we had to wait until the December 2007 survey for the probability of a US recession taking place in 2008 to approach 40% and it was only with the February 2008 survey conducted, after the 2008 recession had started, that this probability went above 50%.”

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    Which again brings us back to fund flows, as a proxy of consumer confidence. 

    As JPM notes, “the vast majority of the fund universe in the world is owned by households or retail investors. And retail investors’ behavior in the fund space this year has the hallmarks of late cycle investing with outflows from equity funds and inflows into bond funds.”

    As the next chart shows, the last time we saw such strong outflows from equity funds was during 2008! Admittedly Figure 4 shows that during 2008 we had seen outflows from bond funds also, in contrast to the strong bond fund inflows seen this year. But the difference is less significant than appears in the chart below, as the bond fund outflows at the time had mostly taken place post Lehman crisis once credit spreads rose to unprecedented levels post September 2008

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    But, Panigirtzoglou asks, “what if this selling of equity funds does not reflect fears of a recession or late cycle dynamics but rebalancing, i.e. an effort by retail investors to prevent their equity weighting from rising too much given the strong 15% rally in global equities YTD.”

    Indeed the equity share in the fund universe has been hovering at pretty high levels by historical standards since the end of 2017. This equity share is proxied by the AUM of equity funds plus the equity holdings of hybrid funds divided by the sum of the AUM of equity, bond, hybrid and money market funds. And it could be considered as a proxy of how overweight equities retail investors are as shown in Figure 6 (since 1996 for US domiciled funds and since 2005 globally).

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    As JPM further notes, this equity fund share has exhibited mean reversion since the mid-1990s. It had increased sharply in the five years to 2017 as a result of the equity rally, with most of the increase taking place during 2013 and during 2017. The metrics in Figure 6 declined sharply during the equity market correction of Q4 2018 but all of this decline reversed in the first quarter of this year shifting retail investors to very overweight territory.

    As a result, at 59% currently at a global level, retail investors are entering the fourth quarter of this year at a similar equity overweight position to the record high of the end of 2017. For US domiciled investors, the equity share is currently somewhat lower than the record high of 63% seen at the end of 2017. But at 61% this equity share is still pretty high by historical standards and equal to the previous cycle peaks of 1999 and 2006.

    In other words, even if they aren’t dumping stocks because they fear a financial crisis, retail investors appear to be very overweight equities at the moment given the strong 15% rally in global equities this year. So it is possible to view their growing equity fund selling this year as an effort by retail investors to rebalance and prevent their equity weighting from rising too much rather than as a reflection of waning confidence or increasing fear of recession.

    This, however, is also not good news, because even if this alternative “rebalancing” hypothesis is correct, it implies that the equity weighting of the household sector has peaked and thus retail investors are likely to limit any equity market upside from here. Therefore, as JPM concludes, “this alternative hypothesis has rather negative implications for equity markets also” asretail investors could act as a drag on equity market upside from here even if consumer confidence improves.

    In conclusion, even an optimistic read of the ongoing liquidation by retail investors “poses a challenge to the bullish equity market thesis emerging from this week’s positive news on US-China trade negotiations and Brexit” Panigirtzoglou concludes, because any upside from this week’s news could be constrained by retail investors trying to prevent their equity overweights from rising too much.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/12/2019 – 21:20

  • The World's Least-Free Countries Reveal Just How Much "Socialism Sucks"
    The World’s Least-Free Countries Reveal Just How Much “Socialism Sucks”

    Authored by David Gordon via The Mises Institute,

    [Socialism Sucks: Two Economists Drink Their Way Through the Unfree World. By Robert Lawson and Benjamin Powell.  Regnery Publishing, 2019. 192 pages.]

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    Robert Lawson and Benjamin Powell are well-known free market economists, and they do not look with favor on a disturbing trend among American young people.

    “In the spring of 2016,” they tell us, “a Harvard survey found that a third of eighteen-to twenty-nine year olds supported socialism. Another survey, from the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, reported that millennials supported socialism over any other economic system.” (p.8)

    Unfortunately, the young people in question have little idea of the nature of socialism. Lawson and Powell would like to remedy this situation, but they confront a problem. Ordinarily, one would urge students to read Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson, Mises’s “Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth,” and similar classic works, in order to understand the basic facts about the free market and socialism, but the millennials are unlikely to do so. One must attract their attention. What can be done?

    Lawson and Powell have had the happy idea of presenting elementary economics in a humorous way that will appeal to those “turned off” by serious and sober scholarship. In the latter adjective lies the key to their approach. Both of the authors enjoy drinking beer, and they travel around the world to various socialist countries in pursuit of their beloved beverage, making incisive comments about the economy of each country as they do so. They write in a salty style that will make millennials laugh, though some readers will find it jarring.

    For the young, “socialism” means no more than vague ideas about “fairness”, but, the authors note, the term has a precise meaning:

    “To separate the state from socialism in any large society is like trying to separate private property from capitalism. It can’t be done. I’ll say it once more for the people in the back: socialism, in practice, means that the state owns and controls the means of production.” (p.128)

    No country is completely socialist, but some are more socialist than others. How can the degree of socialism be evaluated? Lawson has, along with James Gwartney, produced an annual economic freedom index for the Fraser Institute, which the authors use to answer this question, sometimes with surprising results.

    Many professed socialists look to Sweden for inspiration, but according to the freedom index, “Sweden gets a 7.54 rating, which is good enough for twenty-seventh place out of the 159 countries in the study. . .Bottom line: Sweden is a prosperous, mostly capitalist country.” (pp.10-11)

    The authors must now confront an objection. Why should we not prefer welfare-state capitalism to the straightforward free market economy the authors want? They reply that Sweden prospered under freedom, but the increased taxation needed to finance the welfare state has brought about stagnation. “Sweden grew most when it was freer than it is today.” (p.13)

    If some people admire Sweden, few except fanatics have good words for the economy of Cuba. Nevertheless, must we not recognize the wonders accomplished by the Cuban socialized medicine? We must give the devil his due. Lawson and Powell are not convinced.

    “Official Cuban health statistics are impressive. . .Yet, we also know that the hospitals most Cubans use are so poorly equipped that people often have to bring their own sheets. What gives? The silence [on the streets} is part of the answer. The lack of automobiles means a lack of traffic fatalities. Since automobile accidents are a leading cause of death among younger people, the lack of automobiles has a disproportionate impact on life expectancy statistics for reasons that have nothing to do with health care. The low rate of infant mortality is a product of data manipulation.” (p.53)

    Why has Cuban socialism, like all other centralized socialist economies, failed? The authors present with great clarity the essential point:

    “’[A]lmost a hundred years ago, the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises explained that socialism, even if run by benevolent despots and populated with workers willing to work for the common good, could still not match capitalism’s performance. Socialism requires abolishing private property in the means of production. But private property is necessary to have the free exchange of labor, capital, and goods that establish proper prices. Without proper prices, socialist planners could not know which consumer goods were needed or how best to produce them. . .Socialism also gives tremendous power to government officials and bureaucrats who are the system’s planners—and with that power comes corruption, abuse, and tyranny.” (p.37)

    Socialist tyrants were the greatest mass murderers in history, and the young must be apprised of this melancholy fact.

    “Stalin ranks just behind Mao as history’s second greatest mass murderer, with Hitler coming in third—and all three dictators were, of course, committed socialists of one sort or another.” (p.115)

    Some millennial socialists respond with a distinction. The despotic governments mentioned were not genuinely socialist. The authors answer with appropriate severity:

    “This is the same dirty trick socialists have played for decades. Whenever things go south, as they inevitably do, they claim that it wasn’t ‘real’ socialism. I [Lawson[ find the whole thing more than a little disingenuous and very irritating. When socialists, democratic and otherwise, held up Venezuela as a great socialist experiment in the 2000s, the message was, ‘See, we told you so; socialism works!’ but when failure happened, the message changed to, “No, wait—that’s not real socialism!’ They want to claim socialism during the good times but disavow it during the bad.” (pp.127-128)

    A related gross error, the famous “nirvana fallacy,” is to compare an ideal state of affairs, conjured up by socialists, with difficulties of real-world capitalism.

    If the authors are ready to rebuke the errors of misguided youth, they look with sympathy on some of their hopes. Many young people condemn the drug war, with its rampant racism and mass incarcerations, and they are right to do so:

    “The U.S. government’s war on drugs is unwinnable because, in the language of economists, it is a supply-side war, when demand isn’t very price-sensitive. This means when the U.S. government scores a ‘win’ in the war, the price of the remaining drugs goes up more than the usage falls. As a result, net revenue to drug cartels increases, which increases their ability to corrupt law enforcement and buy weapons and other smuggling equipment. The result has been an endless cycle of increasing violence along the entire supply chain in Central and South America. . .” (p.135)

    It is not only the drug war, but the war on terror as well, that ought to be condemned, and here once more, the many millennials who protested against the war are in the right.

    “We feel the same about the war on terror. The wars and violence associated with it in the Middle East are a major reason for Europe’s immigration wave. . .advocates for capitalism can be against war precisely because war undermine capitalist institutions and freedoms.. . .Chris Coyne wrote a book entitled After War: The Political Economy of Exporting Democracy, in which he shows that when the U.S. engages in foreign intervention, it rarely creates the kind of lasting institutional change that supports what some might call a ‘neoliberal’ society. Economist Robert Higgs’s classic book, Crisis and Leviathan, shows how crises in the United States, especially wars, have led to expanded government at the expense of markets. Chris’s latest book, Tyranny Come Hone: The Domestic Fate of U.S. Militarism, co-authored with another friend of ours, Abby Hall, has shown how U.S. military interventions abroad ‘boomerang’ back to the United States in ways that decrease our freedoms at home. See, anti-war isn’t a uniquely leftist position. Capitalists should be anti-war too.” (pp.136-137. I regret the use of “neoliberal” as a term of praise and the solecism “advocates for.”)

    I confess that I approached the authors’ project of a drinking tour of the socialist countries with skepticism. Would it be more than ajeu d’esprit? Reading the book has laid my skepticism to rest. Socialism Sucks has the potential to do great good, if it gets into the right hands, and its impressive sales suggest that it will do so.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/12/2019 – 20:50

  • Apple Warned Apple TV+ Showrunners Not To Anger China
    Apple Warned Apple TV+ Showrunners Not To Anger China

    As Apple embarked on the development of a series of exclusive programming for its Apple TV+ service in early 2018, the company’s leadership advised content creators not to piss off China, according to BuzzFeed News

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    In early 2018 as development on Apple’s slate of exclusive Apple TV+ programming was underway, the company’s leadership gave guidance to the creators of some of those shows to avoid portraying China in a poor light, BuzzFeed News has learned. Sources in position to know said the instruction was communicated by Eddy Cue, Apple’s SVP of internet software and services, and Morgan Wandell, its head of international content development. It was part of Apple’s ongoing efforts to remain in China’s good graces after a 2016 incident in which Beijing shut down Apple’s iBooks Store and iTunes Movies six months after they debuted in the country. –BuzzFeed

    And for all the left’s virtue-signaling over ‘microaggressions’ and the patriarchy depriving every gender their own bathroom, the progressive minds behind Hollywood and Silicon Valley After are hypocritically mum when it comes to China’s well-documented human rights violations. 

    “They all do it,” one showrunner told BuzzFeed. “They have to if they want to play in that market. And they all want to play in that market. Who wouldn’t?

    Apple of course relies on China for tens of billions in annual sales – not to mention the annual manufacture of hundreds of millions of iPhones – which as the report notes, makes it “particularly important to avoid running afoul of Chinese government,” especially in light of what we’ve seen over the past weeks with the NBA and other organizations whose employees have expressed solidarity with Hong Kong’s pro-democracy demonstrators. 

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    Apps yanked

    Last week, Apple removed HKmap.live from the iOS App Store – an app which helped Hong Kong protesters track, elude, and stage counterattack operations against the police. The removal sparked outrage, including Hong Kong IT legislator Charles Mok, who tweeted in a letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook “We Hongkongers will definitely look closely at whether Apple chooses to uphold its commitment to free and other basic human rights, or become an accomplice for Chinese censorship and oppression.”

    As BuzzFeed notes, “Apple’s recent actions in China are a continuation of the company’s years-long practice of appeasing Beijing.” 

    To do business in China, the company adopts to local dictates, distasteful as they may be to its CEO Tim Cook, an outspoken gay rights advocate and privacy crusader. It’s an ironic inversion of a longstanding argument in the West that by bringing China into the world trade system, the country would adopt western values. Instead, China is asking tech companies to adopt its values — and Apple is willing to pay that price. 

    The removal of HKmap.live was one of a series of actions Apple took at China’s instigation in the past week. Apple removed the Quartz app from its app store in China — “Presumably because of the excellent work our team in Hong Kong has been doing covering the protests,” Quartz technology editor Mike Murphy said — and removed the Taiwan flag emoji for iOS users in Hong Kong. –BuzzFeed

    Also noted is that Apple only rejected just two of 56 app takedown requests from Beijing – eliminating 517 apps the communist government disapproved of, according to the Cupertino, California company’s transparency report. What’s more, “Apple provided customer data to the Chinese government 96% of the time when it asked about a device, and 98% of the time when it asked about an account. In the US, those numbers were around 80% and the US government did not make any app removal requests.” 

    Read the rest of the report here

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    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/12/2019 – 20:20

  • The "Safe Drivers Act" Is A Real-Time National Driver Surveillance Program
    The “Safe Drivers Act” Is A Real-Time National Driver Surveillance Program

    Via MassPrivateI blog,

    A new Senate bill would create a real-time national driver surveillance program that would allow law enforcement to know anything and everything about a driver at the click of a button.

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    A recent article in WCVB Channel 5 revealed that the “Safe Drivers Act” is designed for one purpose and that is to share everything a motorist has ever done with law enforcement nationwide.

    Outside the Danvers branch of the Registry of Motor Vehicles on Tuesday, Congressman Seth Moulton publicly announced legislation he’s filed in hopes of making it easier for traffic safety officials to share information about drivers across state lines.

    How Moulton plans to make it easier to share drivers’ personal information with law enforcement across the country is frightening.

    The ultimate goal of the bill is to help lead to the creation of a national, real-time data sharing program, Moulton’s office said.

    Apparently, knowing a driver’s Social Security Number, address, date of birth, checking their driving record and running their name against a national criminal database is not enough.

    There are few places in America that do not use Automatic License Plate Readers to track our every movement and even that does not appear to be enough for Big Brother’s insatiable desire to know everything about everyone.

    The Salem News revealed that the bill would “incentivize states” into creating a national real-time driver sharing program.

    Moulton said, “the goal is to incentivize states to modernize their systems and work together to make sure their databases are compatible to improve communication on dangerous drivers.”

    WCVB Channel 5 explains how the U.S. DOT would offer states more than $50 million to help create a national real-time data sharing program.

    Moulton’s bill would also create a $50 million competitive grant program that would allow states to bid for additional grant money and would enable the U.S. Department of Transportation to connect states that have similar modernization needs.

    One has to ask, why would states need bribes grant money to help create a national driver surveillance program?

    According to The Salem News, this bill would also give law enforcement, real-time alerts of every driver.

    Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker has also called for the creation of a nationwide system to alert states when one of their drivers incurs a violation that could trigger a suspension in another jurisdiction.

    Will Amber Alerts become a thing of the past? Because this bill would give law enforcement real-time alerts about every driver.

    I wonder if they will be called Bad Driver alerts?

    THE SAFE DRIVERS ACT IS A PRIVACY NIGHTMARE

    H.R. 4531 would also give law enforcement access to videos of accidents a driver was involved in and much more.

    Developing or acquiring programs to identify, collect, and report data to State and local government agencies, and enter data, including crash, citation or adjudication, driver, emergency medical services or injury surveillance system, roadway, and vehicle, into the core highway safety databases of a State.

    Collecting and storing court judgments of any auto accident a motorist has been involved in will give law enforcement unprecedented access to a motorist’s driving records.

    It would link core highway safety databases of a State with such databases of other States or with other data systems within the State, including systems that contain medical, roadway, and economic data.

    Calling this a national, real-time data sharing program really doesn’t do it justice. It should be renamed and called a real-time national driver surveillance program.

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    You can bet that this bill will be modified to monitor motorists in ways that we haven’t dreamed of yet, making the “Safe Drivers Act” even more of a privacy nightmare.

    By storing and tracking everything a motorist has ever been involved in, we are turning every driver into a suspected criminal, and that scares the you-know-what out of me.

    Americans do not need or want another national surveillance program. We already have a national ID program called Real-ID, which gives law enforcement an unprecedented look into everyone’s personal lives.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/12/2019 – 19:50

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Today’s News 12th October 2019

  • National Geographic Warns Billions "Face Shortages Of Food And Clean Water" Over Next 30 Years
    National Geographic Warns Billions “Face Shortages Of Food And Clean Water” Over Next 30 Years

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    A lot of people out there don’t like when I write these kinds of articles, because they directly contradict the false narrative that humanity has an extremely bright future ahead.  Sadly, the truth is that our planet and everything that lives on it is rapidly deteriorating. And I am not talking about the false environmentalism being pushed by the mainstream media, Greta Thunberg and countless well-funded NGOs. 

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    What I am talking about is the stuff that is happening right in our face.  We are systematically poisoning our planet, thousands upon thousands of species are going extinct, and we are literally running out of all of our most important natural resources.  There isn’t going to be enough of anything in the not too distant future.  In fact, even National Geographic is admitting that up to five billion people could soon be facing “shortages of food and clean water”…

    As many as five billion people, particularly in Africa and South Asia, are likely to face shortages of food and clean water in the coming decades as nature declines. Hundreds of millions more could be vulnerable to increased risks of severe coastal storms, according to the first-ever model examining how nature and humans can survive together.

    “I hope no one is shocked that billions of people could be impacted by 2050,” says Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer a landscape ecologist at Stanford University. “We know we are dependent on nature for many things,” says Chaplin-Kramer, lead author of the paper “Global Modeling Of Nature’s Contributions To People” published in Science.

    The clock is literally ticking for humanity, but meanwhile we spend immense amounts of energy on relatively meaningless political squabbles.

    Look, the reality of the matter is that this is going to happen no matter which political party is in control of the White House.  We are in very big trouble, and nobody really has any idea how we can possibly turn things around.

    At this point, we are running out of topsoil at a staggering rate.  In fact, we have already lost “nearly half of the most productive soil” within the last 150 years

    The world grows 95% of its food in the uppermost layer of soil, making topsoil one of the most important components of our food system. But thanks to conventional farming practices, nearly half of the most productive soil has disappeared in the world in the last 150 years, threatening crop yields and contributing to nutrient pollution, dead zones and erosion. In the US alone, soil on cropland is eroding 10 times faster than it can be replenished.

    If we continue to degrade the soil at the rate we are now, the world could run out of topsoil in about 60 years, according to Maria-Helena Semedo of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

    So do any of you have a viable plan for how we can stop losing our topsoil?

    Because if nobody has a plan, mass starvation is an absolute certainty.  Even if we found a way to save our topsoil, we aren’t going to have anyone to pollinate our crops because all of the insects are dying.  I covered this phenomenon in a previous article entitled “Insect Species Are Rapidly Going Extinct Across The Globe – All Insects Could Be Gone ‘In 100 Years’”.

    And without enough insects to eat, the bird population is rapidly declining as well.  This is something that I wrote about in a previous article entitled “North America’s Bird Population Is Collapsing – Nearly 3 Billion Birds Have Been Wiped Out Since 1970”.

    Despite all of our advanced technology, we can’t seem to do much of anything to stop the death and decay that we see all over the globe.

    Even the human race is steadily deteriorating.  Scientists tell us that humans are now smaller, shorter, weaker and dumber than our ancestors were thousands of years ago.  Today, our genes contain tens of thousands of mistakes (mutations), and those mistakes are passed on to the next generation.  And each new generation adds additional mistakes (mutations) to the gene pool, and so over time the number of mutations being passed on continues to grow.  In virtually every case those mutations are harmful, and we have absolutely no way to stop this systematic decay of the human genome.

    Literally, our planet and everything in it is falling apart.

    Here in the western world, things may seem okay for the moment because our debt-fueled lifestyles and our advanced technology allow us to live fairly comfortable lives.

    But things are already starting to change, and global events are accelerating at a pace that is very alarming.  As the fabric of our society unravels, it is going to be imperative to have others that you can lean on for support.

    Unfortunately, making friends is not something that most of us are very good at doing.  In fact, one recent study discovered that the average American adult “hasn’t made a new friend in the last five years”

    Spending time in the company of good friends regularly has been shown to have a positive impact on health. But for many Americans, socializing in adulthood gets harder with age. A recent survey reveals that 45% of adults admit they find it hard to make new friends. In fact, the average adult hasn’t made a new friend in the last five years, according to the survey.

    In this day and age, our screens have become our friends.  We spend countless hours with our televisions, our phones and our computers.  Meanwhile, many of us don’t have any idea how the people living right next door are doing.

    One of the reasons why I write so many articles is because that is how I can reach the most people.

    If the most effective way of waking people up was traveling the country and holding meetings, I would do it.

    But these days it is exceedingly difficult to get people to leave their homes and go to a meeting.  But once I publish this article on the Internet, it will be seen by enough people to easily fill a sports stadium.

    The Internet is where the battle for hearts and minds is being won or lost, and we need to do all that we can to wake more people up.

    Because the clock is ticking for humanity, and the destiny of billions hangs in the balance.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 23:40

  • 40% Of Hongkongers Want To Flee City Amid Protests And Imminent Recession
    40% Of Hongkongers Want To Flee City Amid Protests And Imminent Recession

    A mind-boggling 40% of Hongkongers want to emigrate overseas because of the escalating social unrest that is expected to trigger an imminent recession in the coming quarters.  

    The new study, published by the Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, asked 707 individuals by phone in late September if they would leave the city because of the turmoil. More than 42% answered yes, which is up from 34% last December. 

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    Of those who were asked, 23% of respondents said they’ve already started emergency plans to leave. Some of those plans include getting out of housing leases, selling their homes and cars, and packing up their possessions, ahead of a move to a foreign city. 

    The study was published on Thursday, and university researchers said political chaos was the most significant factor in triggering an emergency move for respondents. 

    The largest two factors for respondents planning to move were “too much political dispute or social cleavage” (27.9%) and “no democracy in Hong Kong” (21.5%).

    About 20% of the respondents had no confidence in China and Hong Kong to fix the overcrowded living conditions.

    Hong Kong was already in an economic rout, which started in late 2017. 

    The increasingly violent anti-government protests from June have likely triggered the city’s first recession since the global financial crisis — this could also crash housing prices. 

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    Protestors have brought luxury hotels, shopping districts, neighborhood stores, restaurants, and tourist-centric districts to a virtual standstill. 

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    Hong Kong’s GDP contracted in 2Q19, and 3Q will likely contract as economic data is crashing. 

    The Government of Hong Kong has been unsuccessful in containing the protests, as well as troughing economic growth through various stimulus packages in 2019.  

    “I do not expect to see any strong measures that can instantaneously turn things around,” said Dong Chen, senior Asia economist with Pictet Wealth Management, one of a growing chorus of experts predicting Hong Kong had a second straight quarterly contraction in the three months through September. “The best scenario is after this political unrest they can come up with longer-term planning or measures to solve structural problems.”

    Economists believe growth in the city will slip below 1% in 2019. 

    JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s bear case for the city is about .30%, the weakest full-year GDP reading in a decade. 

    The social and economic chaos has sparked a downturn in Hong Kong’s equities and real estate markets. 

    It seems that Hongkongers, as per the study, are overwhelmingly packing their bags as it appears an economic collapse in the city could be imminent.

    And judging by the surge in local bitcoin trading volumes, capital is leaking out fast, with bodies to follow…

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    Is the implosion of Hong Kong what triggers the next global economic crisis? 


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 23:20

  • Sesame Street Introduces A Muppet Who Has A Mother Addicted To Opiates
    Sesame Street Introduces A Muppet Who Has A Mother Addicted To Opiates

    Authored by John Vibes via The Mind Unleashed,

    “Sesame Street,” one of the longest-running children’s television shows in the United States, has introduced a new character that has a mother who is addicted to opiates. The new character is a bright green muppet with yellow hair who is friends with Elmo. Karli will reportedly talk about how addiction has affected her and her family in new editions of the show’s online community resource initiatives.

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    The show’s creators say that they wanted to cover this topic on the show because there are millions of children who are currently facing this reality, and there are no resources out there for these kids.

    In an interview with Stat News, Dr. Jeanette Betancourt, senior vice president for U.S. social impact at Sesame Workshop, estimated that there were 5.7 million children under the age of 11 who live in a house with a parent who struggles with addiction.

    Betancourt said the shows featuring Karli approach the issue of addiction with compassion, from a perspective that young people can understand. The episodes illustrate that addiction is an “adult illness,” and emphasizes that children are not in any way responsible for their parent’s actions.

    Kama Einhorn, a senior content manager with Sesame Workshop, said that these shows can just as beneficial for parents as they are for children.

    “There’s nothing else out there that addresses substance abuse for young, young kids from their perspective. It’s also a chance to model to adults a way to explain what they’re going through to kids and to offer simple strategies to cope. Even a parent at their most vulnerable — at the worst of their struggle — can take one thing away when they watch it with their kids, then that serves the purpose,” Einhorn told the Guardian.

    In one of the scenes, the Muppet tells her friend that addiction is “A sickness that makes people feel like they have to take drugs or drink alcohol to feel OK. My mom was having a hard time with addiction and I felt like my family was the only one going through it. But now I’ve met so many other kids like us. It makes me feel like we’re not alone.”

    The creation of the scenes and dialogue was assisted by Jerry Moe, the national director of the Hazelden Betty Ford Children’s Program. Moe said that children often don’t receive the emotional help and support that they need when a family member is dealing with addiction.

    These boys and girls are the first to get hurt and, unfortunately, the last to get help. For them to see Karli and learn that it’s not their fault and this stuff is hard to talk about and it’s OK to have these feelings, that’s important. And that there’s hope,” Moe said.

    Children live in the same world and the same homes that the rest of us do, and they are smart enough to know what is happening right in front of them. Some people think that these types of issues should be swept under the rug and hidden from children, but for the millions of children who are facing these problems in their families, ignoring it isn’t an option.

    “Sesame Street,” is known for covering sensitive topics that children are often sheltered from, and in the past, the show has tackled issues like HIV, homelessness, or having parents in jail.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 23:00

  • These Are The Richest People In China
    These Are The Richest People In China

    The latest rich list published by The Hurun Research Institute has revealed the richest people in China in 2019.

    At the top of the ranking is co-founder of the Alibaba Group, Jack Ma and his family. In total, he is estimated to have a net worth of $39 billion. Close behind is Pony Ma Huateng, CEO of Tencent.

    Infographic: The Richest People in China | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    How does this vast wealth compare to the richest people in the world?

    According to the latest Forbes ranking, the richest person in the world is Jeff Bezos, with a staggering net worth of $131 billion.

    For now, no one from China makes it on to the top ten global list – with the benchmark currently at $51 billion – but it is surely just a matter of time.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 22:40

  • Shepard Smith Out At Fox News
    Shepard Smith Out At Fox News

    Despite a palpable shift to the left at Fox News, the very liberal Shepard Smith is stepping down from his role as Chief News Anchor and Managing Editor at the network after a public spat with host Tucker Carlson. According to Smith, he’s leaving to begin “a new chapter” in his career, and his last day at the anchor desk will be today. 

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    “Recently I asked the company to allow me to leave Fox News and begin a new chapter,” Smith said, adding “After requesting that I stay, they graciously obliged. The opportunities afforded this guy from small town Mississippi have been many. It’s been an honor and a privilege to report the news each day to our loyal audience in context and with perspective, without fear or favor. I’ve worked with the most talented, dedicated and focused professionals I know and I’m proud to have anchored their work each day — I will deeply miss them.”

    Until Smith’s replacement is found, the network will deploy a series of rotating anchors to host the 3 p.m. time slot. 

    Word of Smith’s departure comes two weeks after a “war of words” broke out between Smith and fox anchor Tucker Carlson, after Smith called Carlson and legal analyst Joe diGenova “repugnant” in a daytime analysis of their reporting on the Democratically manufactured Ukrainegate scandal.

    As we noted at the time, Smith was flanked by Fox News legal analyst Judge Andrew Napolitano, who drew a starkly different conclusion on Trump’s actions than pro-Trump lawyer diGenova, who appeared the night before on Carlson’s show.

    Napolitano concluded that Trump’s actions regarding Ukraine constituted “a crime” during the day on Tuesday. 

    diGenova had called Napolitano a “fool” for his analysis on that night, to which Smith returned fire the following evening, stating that diGenova was a “partisan guest” who was “repugnant” for attacking Napolitano. 

    “Apparently our daytime host, who hosted Judge Napolitano, was watching last night and was outraged by what you said and quite ironically called you partisan,” Carlson replied. 

    Later, Carlson took yet another shot at Smith to conclude the segment:

    It doesn’t seem honest to me when a host, any host on any channel, including this one, pretends that the answer is obvious. That’s not news, is it? That’s opinion. Why do we find ourselves in a situation where people aren’t willing to admit that their passions are guiding their news coverage?

    Wouldn’t it be better if we just said out loud you know this is what I think? For example you will never hear me criticize Rachel Maddow. I never agree with anything she says. But she is straightforward, it’s her opinion. Why wouldn’t it be better if we were all that transparent about what’s driving our shows? 

    It makes people cynical when you dress up news coverage, when you dress up partisanship as news coverage and pretend that your angry political opinions are news, you know, people tune out.”

    And now Smith is out.

    ***

    Fox said in a statement (via Forbes): 

    NEW YORK – October 11, 2019 — FOX NEWS Channel’s (FNC) Shepard Smith will step down from his role as Chief News Anchor and Managing Editor of the network’s breaking news unit and Anchor of Shepard Smith Reporting, announced Jay Wallace, President & Executive Editor of FOX News Media. This afternoon’s edition of Shepard Smith Reporting was Mr. Smith’s final show, during which he addressed his decision. A series of rotating anchors will host the 3PM/ET time slot until a new dayside news program is announced.

    In making the announcement, Mr. Wallace said, “Shep is one of the premier newscasters of his generation and his extraordinary body of work is among the finest journalism in the industry. His integrity and outstanding reporting from the field helped put FOX News on the map and there is simply no better breaking news anchor who has the ability to transport a viewer to a place of conflict, tragedy, despair or elation through his masterful delivery. We are proud of the signature reporting and anchoring style he honed at FOX News, along with everything he accomplished here during his monumental 23-year tenure. While this day is especially difficult as his former producer, we respect his decision and are deeply grateful for his immense contributions to the entire network.”

    Mr. Smith added, “Recently I asked the company to allow me to leave FOX News and begin a new chapter. After requesting that I stay, they graciously obliged. The opportunities afforded this guy from small town Mississippi have been many. It’s been an honor and a privilege to report the news each day to our loyal audience in context and with perspective, without fear or favor. I’ve worked with the most talented, dedicated and focused professionals I know and I’m proud to have anchored their work each day — I will deeply miss them.”

    One of FNC’s original hires in 1996, Mr. Smith has covered virtually every major news story over the course of his career as both a correspondent and an anchor, playing a fundamental role in the network’s innovation of the way news is presented.

    As the anchor of Shepard Smith Reporting (weekdays 3-4PM/ET), Mr. Smith utilized state-of-the-art news gathering techniques enhanced with advanced technologies, as well as digital and social media, to bring viewers the latest hard news from the signature studio known as The FOX News Deck.

    Throughout the most recent portion of his tenure, Mr. Smith anchored numerous breaking news stories, including: the El Paso shooting; the Parkland school shooting; Hurricanes Dorian & Irma; the Las Vegas massacre; the 2016 terrorist attacks in Nice, France and Belgium; the coordinated terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015; the 2014 riots following the shooting of civilian Michael Brown by a police officer in Ferguson, MO; and the search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, among many others.

    Before taking the helm of the breaking news division with the advent of Shepard Smith Reporting, Mr. Smith anchored The FOX Report and Studio B, both of which ranked number one in their respective timeslots. In this role, among the stories he notably anchored were: the Boston Marathon bombing of 2013 along with the subsequent manhunt and ultimate capture of the Tsarnaev brothers; the financial crisis of 2008; the War in Iraq (2003); the War in Afghanistan (2001), as well as the murderous terrorist attacks and devastating aftermath of 9/11.

    Additionally, Mr. Smith has traveled to Ukraine to report on the unrest in Kiev and Crimea, and reported live from Rome during the election of Pope Francis, as well as on the retirement of Pope Benedict XVI. In 2011, he was on location from Japan following the destructive earthquake and tsunami amid nuclear threats. During that same year, he provided significant news coverage of the anti-government protests and civil unrest in Egypt and Libya. Mr. Smith also reported extensively on the Middle East conflict between Israel and Hezbollah forces from Beirut, Lebanon in 2006.

    Prior to joining FNC, Mr. Smith was a Los Angeles-based FOX News Edge correspondent, reporting on a wide range of stories for the FOX affiliate news service, including the crash of TWA Flight 800, the Montana Freeman standoff, and the Oklahoma City bombing. Before this, he gained extensive local news experience throughout the state of Florida serving as a reporter for WSVN-TV (FOX) in Miami, the former WCPX-TV (CBS) in Orlando, WBBH-TV (NBC) in Fort Myers, FL and WJHG-TV (NBC) in Panama City, FL where he began his television career.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 22:22

  • Luongo: Pompeo Can't Blame Iran For Attacking Itself
    Luongo: Pompeo Can’t Blame Iran For Attacking Itself

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    “You’re gonna need a bigger boat”

    –JAWS

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    Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water someone poked a couple of holes in an oil tanker belonging to Iran.

    This sent oil prices up briefly in the vain hope of stabilizing them.

    But, strangely, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was silent.

    This was a warning to Iran from someone on the Saudi/Israeli/U.S. side, “You won’t win without costs.”

    Well, of course, that’s true. The big question everyone is asking is, of course, “Who did this?”

    Details are sketchy with a lot of back and forth. Iran initially reported missile strikes.

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    But Iran’s national tanker company, the owner of the boat, is now ruling out missiles.

    But who did this is honestly not even relevant at this point. It could be Israel, the Saudis, rogue U.S. or British agents, etc.

    Once we started down this path of sanctions, attacks on oil assets, and the like, it opened up the possibility of anyone with an axe to grind creating an incident for their purposes and blaming someone else for it.

    There are so many conflicting priorities on all sides of this issue that all it takes is the right suitcase of money to start a war, or spike oil prices for a few hours, or whatever.

    I can spin a dozen motivations out of my head right now whereby everyone involved has motive to attack an Iranian tanker. And they would all sound plausible, including the one that you know Mike Pompeo is just itching to waddle away from the buffet table to announce, that Iran attacked itself.

    And the less that evangelical crazy-man says about this, the better everyone will be. In fact, it is Pompeo’s silence is deafening, since he never misses an opportunity to bash Iran. It makes you wonder just how much he may or may not know about this.

    But honestly, that’s just me pushing boundaries.

    The reality is that Occam’s Razor is the most useful tool in this situation.

    The people squawking the loudest about the President’s recent policy decisions in the Middle East are the ones most likely behind this. They are the ones with the most to lose if Saudi Arabia falls and the U.S. pulls much of its force out of the Middle East.

    The most likely candidate is the one actor who has consistently overstepped its bounds in attacking neighbors it considers hostile for any reason. Israel.

    The headlines this week have been wall-to-wall gnashing of teeth and pearl clutching over the fate of the Kurds in Northern Syria, left to the tender mercies of the Turks.

    And that has been coming most forcefully from the gaggle of AIPAC drones that inhabit the D.C. Swamp.

    But the reality is that the partitioning of Syria has been a U.S. neoconservative project from the beginning of the civil war. Israel has given aid and comfort to ISIS fighters along the Golan Heights. This is not news, folks.

    And the use of the Kurds to destabilize not only Syria but Iraq, Iran and Turkey by outside actors, like the U.S., Saudi Arabia and YES, Israel, is well established.

    Pompeo has helped preside over sending the Kurds more than 30,000 truckloads of weapons. Who paid for those weapons, by the way?

    We did.

    How many of these SDF fighters are nothing more than foreign mercenaries paid by us to hold strategic areas of Syria– the oil fields and the border crossings –to starve Assad out of power?

    It’s been long established that the U.S. presence in Syria is unsustainable. But who keeps the pressure on Trump politically to maintain the situation?

    Israel.

    There comes a point where the evidence of influence is overwhelming and the state of the game board so degraded that it’s time for someone to make a bold call and change tactics.

    If the neocons and Israeli Firsters in Congress (and formerly in his cabinet) have turned on Trump to the point of starting impeachment proceedings against him for not going to war with Iran, then Trump is free to finally just blow it all wide open.

    Which is exactly what he is doing. The Kurds were simply mercenaries to help us defeat ISIS. Job’s done, your beef with Turkey is your problem.

    Remember that Russia’s intervention in Syria outed who was really behind the coalition to overthrow President Assad and when Turkey’s Erdogan was framed into a fight with Russia, shooting down an SU-24 in November 2015, Erdogan realized he would be the scapegoat for the entire operation and swiftly began changing his tune.

    Don’t you think Trump can see the same setup happening here now with the Kurds?

    They jumped the gun on impeachment. They didn’t neuter Trump, they unleashed him. Because he simply has nothing left to lose.

    Today that shift by Erdogan has culminated in his securing Northeastern Syria from Kurdish forces whose sole intention was to sow dissent and try and form an independent state, the dreams of which died with Barzani’s Peshmerga Forces getting routed at Erbil in 2017.

    Everything since then has been a delaying action. Trump was willing to go along if he could get Iran to the table on nuclear weapons. Putin and Erdogan prevailed on Trump to do a double deal. Turkey would give up support of Al-Qaeda in Idlib and the U.S. would begin pulling support for the Kurds in eastern Syria.

    Syria can begin normalizing and the Saudis and Israelis will have to face up to the need to sue for peace.

    But that means the end of the dream to partition Syria and striking Iran. Trump beginning to pull U.S. forces out of harm’s way is the surest way to ensure there isn’t another accident which sets us on the path to war.

    So, to me, it makes perfect sense to see rogue elements around the region acting independently to try and revive the war footing while cynically supporting a collapsing oil price.

    It’s clear that no one in the U.S. or Saudi Arabian power circles wants oil collapsing below $50 per barrel. The Russians and the Iranians don’t care, they trade oil now mostly outside the dollar and their currencies immunize them to the fluctuations.

    Trump watches the stock market like a hawk and the Saudis watch the price of Brent like their lives depend on it, because they do.

    So, some noises that talks are good and an attack on Iran’s tankers are good for oil prices. An end to the trade war (very unlikely) and Iran bowing to U.S. demands to stop exporting oi (even less likely) is doing nothing more than creating yet another opportunity to short oil.

    That’s the legacy of the chaos created by making terrible decisions intervening in other people’s affairs. That’s why it really doesn’t matter who attacked the Iranian tanker. It was a bad move. All it does it convince Trump further that it’s time to get out of the way and cut bait.

    The Saudis and the Israelis are harboring huge and ancient grudges against Iran that can no longer be tolerated in U.S. political circles. This is crippling U.S. politics.

    Regardless of who actually attacked this tanker their collective grudge and control over the corridors of power in the U.S. is the fuel that keeps these conflicts ongoing.

    Trump, to his credit, is now finally voicing and acting on his long-held beliefs that the Iraq War was a mistake, that Syria is an Obama/Clinton quagmire and that Russia has a strong role to play in cleaning up their messes.

    And the less we listen to the cries of anguish from “the usual suspects” the quicker we can back away from war.

    *  *  *

    Join My Patreon if you believe telling the truth is the only goal worth pursuing (and bacon). Download and Install Brave if you want to retain some privacy while doing so.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 22:20

    Tags

  • Soaring Used-Car Prices "Push Americans Over The Edge" As Subprime Delinquencies Surge
    Soaring Used-Car Prices “Push Americans Over The Edge” As Subprime Delinquencies Surge

    Millions of Americans are finding it virtually impossible to keep up with their car payments, despite supposed “economic growth” and low unemployment, according to Reuters. In fact, more than 7 million Americans are already late by 90 days or more on their car loans, according to data from the New York Federal Reserve, as delinquency rates among borrowers with low credit scores have seen the fastest acceleration.

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    Part of the issue stems from the economic downturn a decade ago where automakers slashed production. This has made a rarity of 10-year-old used vehicles, which are typically the cars sought out by low-wage earners.

    This lack of supply and rising demand has caused prices to spike, with the average price of a 10-year-old used vehicle coming in at $8,657, nearly 75% higher than 2010, which is “pushing poor Americans over the edge” according to Reuters. Over the same time, the average increase in new car prices is only 25%.

    Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ senior manager of industry analysis, said that “this is pinching people at the worst point possible. If you need basic A to B transportation, you have to get an older car that needs more repairs and has more wear-and-tear issues.”

    Monthly auto payments for Americans that make under $40,000 per year have remained flat since 2017. Those in higher wage brackets have seen payments rise. But rather than this being good news, it indicates that poor Americans are stretched so much that they literally can’t afford to pay more. As Cox chief economist Jonathan Smoke pointed out, “they just don’t have any flexibility to increase their payment.”

    And the rising delinquency rates are being blamed on weaker lending standards in recent years.

    Warren Kornfeld, a senior vice president on Moody’s financial institutions team, said: “Auto lenders are belatedly tightening lending standards, but it may already be too late. The economy is masking the true performance of auto loans. If we hit a downturn today, the performance of auto loans would not look very good.”

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    New York Fed data shows that delinquencies among subprime borrowers have been rising and have been the catalyst pushing up the overall delinquency rate. About 8% of loans originated by buyers with a credit score under 620 are categorized as seriously late. Fed researchers called this data “a development that is surprising during a strong economy and labor market.”

    Gordy Tormohlen of Good People Automotive says that business is up 10% this year as auto finance companies have been tightening lending standards. Ominously, he said “the market feels like it did before the financial crisis hit in 2008, when consumers were over-extended with debt.”

    Customers of his include people like Hollis Heyward, who recently had to rework his loan and is now only paying $120 per month to pay off his principal owed, down from about $350 a month.  And it doesn’t look like there will be good news anytime soon: analysts are predicting that it could take years for older used cars to return to more affordable levels. 

    Ken Shilson, president of the National Alliance of Buy Here, Pay Here Dealers (NABD), said:

    American consumers have become too comfortable with debt and subprime customers have been “poisoned” by easy access to capital for much of the long economic expansion. But he added those customers will be forced by tighter underwriting to seek even older vehicles.

    “The American way is to always live beyond your means and Americans aren’t good at making life adjustments,’ Shilson said. “But there’s a reality check coming and many subprime buyers will be forced to find more affordable transportation.”

    Just days ago, Bloomberg reported  that “sticker shock” was the cause for growing stress in the automotive industry.

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    Auto dealer Robert Loehr said of new car prices: “Prices are crazy on cars nowadays — all of them. They’re crazy to me, and I do it every single day, all day long,”

    Brian Irwin, who leads the automotive and industrial practice for consulting firm Accenture, says the auto industry has reached the end of its run, stating: “It’s a step down from where we thought we would be a few months ago. I expect to see stronger incentives coming out.”


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 22:00

  • Is Trump's Syria Withdrawal Gambit An Anti-Impeachment Card?
    Is Trump’s Syria Withdrawal Gambit An Anti-Impeachment Card?

    Authored by Joaquin Flores via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The 19th century Baptist Particular preacher from England, Charles Spurgeon, is best known for the one-line wisdom: “A lie spreads half way around the world while the truth is putting on his shoes.”

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    But what of half-truths, do they spread a quarter-way, or a third? Are these more like lies, or more like the truth?

    By now the half-truth that President Trump announced the pull-out of US forces from its activities aiding the Kurdish separatists in Syria, on Monday, for the sole purpose of distracting the whole discourse from the impeachment proceedings against the sitting president, has spread at least some portion around the world by now.

    A half-truth? It is indeed true that Trump had said the time had come for the US to extricate itself from its series of “ridiculous endless wars”, something which, before Trump, no Republican president in living memory has said.

    The impeachment itself has the look and feel of yet another Democratic Party impeachment stunt, one which in all reality will have a difficult time getting through the House of Representatives and perhaps an impossible time getting through Senate, given Trump’s overall popularity among the energized base which numerous critical Senators will rely on. If the process would go through to the Senate, it is Chief Justice Roberts that would preside on the trial part, and being bound by his conservative record, it is nigh impossible that Roberts would be friendly to efforts to remove Trump on the extremely squishy grounds they would be presented on. After all, creating such future precedents would ultimately have a destabilizing effect on the executive branch, thereby threatening the constitutional framework of checks and balances between the two branches in question.

    But the controversy surrounding the impeachment itself would be enough to raise serious questions in the minds of at least 1% of voters, to at minimum refrain from voting. That’s all Biden would need if he then, in turn, focusses his campaign on a few critical swing states. That’s what the strategy for Biden might hinge on – or is it? If the impeachment process goes through to the end, but ultimately fails, there is probably no other figure in American politics that could use the failure alone to energize his base to such a degree that the failure alone is part of what delivers victory to Trump towards a second term.

    Whatever the case, for certain there is more here than meets the eye to this, and in politics nothing is random, nothing is coincidental. There is no doubt that there is a connection between the impeachment proceedings and Trump’s sudden announcement on Syria and the Kurdish YPG.

    The honest question right now is simple enough: Is Donald Trump’s announcement a mere distraction from moves to impeach him?

    No, it goes deeper than this – and here’s why.

    While this wasn’t the first time either he as president, nor as candidate, had said as much, along with this announcement came a specific and determined public order of sorts: American troops would be pulled back from northern Syria as the Turkish military prepares to clean up Kurdish forces active in the region. Under the Obama administration, and – if we are to believe the sitting president – reluctantly under the present one too, Kurds have enjoyed a degree of support towards the US plan to partition Syria.

    The rise of anti-war Republicans is a relatively new phenomenon, something which came to be broadly known to the public and outside of its own previously insular sphere, through the campaign of former Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul in 2012 – a strong libertarian figure whose anti-war position was prescient and based in integrity, and whose campaign was frustrated by the neo-conservative establishment running the Republican Party.

    This is far from a mere distraction, and has a far deeper meaning, motivation, and possible outcome. At least two times during Trump’s presidency, he has announced some curtailment of the US efforts in Syria, declaring that the US had succeeded in defeating the real threat of ISIS.

    This threat of ISIS, incidentally, was the stated aim of the US involvement in Syria under the Obama administration. It was only after a few years by way of the slippery-slope of mission creep that this involvement began to openly declare the overthrow of the decidedly anti-terrorist administration of Bashar al-Assad as its ‘real’ primary aim. Trump’s move to ‘declare victory and go home’, a declaration that was in reality made possible by the Russian aerial campaign, was nevertheless met with some significant push-back.

    And this push-back, both times, came in the form of moves from House Democrats to start impeachment proceedings. These calls for impeachment, for various and apparently random ‘whatevers’, all long before the final findings of Mueller which seem to have exonerated Trump, had their intended effect.

    Yes, both times Trump was forced to continue the US misadventure in Syria, and after he reversed his de facto position on the matter, both times indeed, impeachment proceedings magically disappeared.

    To wit, after the 2017 Shayrat missile strike which Trump ordered to ward of impeachment threats, the infamously anti-Trump CNN declared that Trump was finally acting like a real US president [Insert wise comment here that in America, being presidential has to involve bombing people or things in the eyes of liberal establishment media].

    Trump doesn’t forget those times he had his nose rubbed in it, as Democrats threatened to work with never-Trump Republicans in the pockets of AIPAC and the Military Industrial Complex, and the so-called intelligence community [something something deep state ], to frustrate his proposed policy changes. Along with appeasing these directly through his de-facto reversal on Syria withdrawal, he ramped up sanctions on Iran to appease AIPAC and even moved to out-do his predecessor on military funding – all within a geopolitical environment that sees Trump calling on European partners to ‘finally’ do their part to finance NATO.

    Now, we suppose we’re just going to have to wait for the ‘allegations’ that Trump worked hand in hand with a foreign government – not Russia, not Ukraine – but rather this time Turkey, to coordinate their attack on the YPG to time nicely with Trump’s strategy to frustrate calls to impeach him.

    Maybe Trump’s opponents will go so far as to claim that his push to expand NATO’s presence in Greece was timed precisely to get Erdogan’s attention to make the Turkish move against the YPG here and now. That means we should be on the look-out for transcripts of ‘Trump-Erdogan conversations’, and more ‘insider leaks’ from ‘whistleblowing’ darlings of the deep-state. As Matt Taibi wrote in Rolling Stone, the real whistleblowers like Manning and Assange, wind up persecuted, tortured, imprisoned. The Ukraine ‘whistleblower’, he astutely observes “isn’t a real whistleblower”. Others less known wind up black-listed, permanently unemployed, doxed, and so it goes.

    But if Trump is anything, he’s a man with a larger-than-life ego, but more than that he is underestimated as an intelligent and strategic thinker, and moreover, doubly excels at symbolic messaging. If his opponents really imbibe the propaganda they put out against him, they’ll always be in for one surprise after another.

    So if in the past, impeachment was used as a reaction to his calls to end the Syrian campaign, and forced him to essentially re-think that apparently unrealized campaign promise – then now impeachment is being used against Trump to punish him for his moves to drain the swamp in Ukraine. Yes, a swamp filled by Victoria Nuland with over $5 bln dollars, Biden’s son Hunter’s unexplainable and magical seat upon the Ukrainian natural gas concern, Burisma, and the blood of the thousands upon thousands of innocent civilians killed by the Obama installed Kiev Junta in its ethnic cleansing operation in the former eastern regions of Ukraine.

    With impeachment being used as a Democratic Party campaign/immunity ploy to perhaps elect or, why not, just install Biden, then what’s Trump’s interest on holding back on his peace plan for Syria? Surely this makes sense for Democrats as neither Pence nor any other Republican has either any appeal against just about any Democrat including Biden.

    But Democrats didn’t plan that Trump would use something perceived as a weakness, a point of capitulation, as a bargaining chip, a card, a strength.

    Just think of how Trump could map his options and possible outcomes out on a semiotic flow chart, and create multiple contingency plans. This has the look and feel of a well-planned maneuver, one that Trump will emerge the stronger from. In many ways it all begs the question, why do his opponents continually fall into his traps? Maybe this is what happens when Democratic Party strategic decisions are made by committee, by lobbyists, by pollsters interpreting the pseudo-data from their own convoluted push-polls. Maybe this is what happens when people really start to believe the hype they created about their opponent.

    Trump’s team has counted the votes against him in the House and Senate – and guess what? These probably include the same never-Trump Republicans that lined up against him previously over his failed attempts in the past to wind down Syria. So what motive would Trump have now to keep these same war-hawks happy about Syria? He can only use Syria to his advantage here and now.

    And keeping it real, Trump is interested primarily now in his re-election, and being able to implement whatever he can manage in his second term – but he has to get there first.

    All in all, this means that rather than Syria being used against him under threat of impeachment, Trump can use Syria withdrawal threats to get those never-Trump Republicans to get back in line – yes, a little party discipline and solidarity.

    Trump has had to let go on Syria a few times, and for all we know it was always set up as one of those cards he could play to survive. Maintaining a presence in Syria lines up generally with his policy against Iran, but claiming that he’s against such a presence allows him to play that card when it’s needed.

    Conclusion

    And on Trump’s end? He has a win-win.

    If Democrats buckle on impeachment, he wins big. If they do not buckle and take impeachment a far as it can go, and prolong the process through the election, they await Chief Justice Roberts jurisprudence and Senate Republicans, taken together, doesn’t look good. If Trump can, as he likely will, use that to his advantage, he wins some and loses some, it will mean some recalibrating on swing states.

    If Democrats don’t buckle and Trump can continue to make big news on ending US presence in Syria, he might make more moves against US presence in Syria, like at Al-Tanf, and all together win even more points with anti-war Republicans, and even Democrats who voted Trump on issues including employment and the economy as well as foreign wars.

    In swing states, Democrats so anti-war and suspicious of China’s relationship to the bleak US employment reality, may vote Trump. And anti-war Republicans themselves aren’t some small grouping.

    Overall, as the American Conservative put it together based on polling done by Politico, “Trump’s December announcement that he would withdraw US troops from Syria, polling data from Morning Consult/Politico shows that 49 percent of Americans support the decision while 33 percent oppose it.” The same article goes on to quote the [in other cases very unreliable] Glenn Greenwald of the [limited hangout] Intercept – “Trump voters overwhelmingly support withdraw by 76 percent to 14 percent.”

    And, by the way, this also helps make it clearer why the DNC made a full reversal on Tulsi Gabbard’s ejection from the race for the nomination – they need to keep that segment of the ‘audience’ engaged until future notice, especially if Trump can angle to keep ahold of Democrats and Republicans who value foreign policy and war above most anything else. Now Tulsi’s magical reappearance in next week’s 4th debate, after missing the 3rd, makes a lot more sense. She previously showed she had a game-mind when she strategically attacked Harris’ attack on Biden’s alleged racism – showing that she could win support from [white] Americans fed up with being accused of such, and that she understood that Biden was the DNC darling, making her defense of him a clear indicator what they could use her in the debates later on, a brilliant insurance policy on the part of Tulsi.

    If Dems don’t drop impeachment then he scores high in those above broken-down demographics, and likely score big enough to reverse the damage done by any impeachment proceedings that threaten his re-election, as they ultimately fail anyhow at the process level.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 21:40

    Tags

  • "Rip The Mask Off Anonymous LLCs:" NYC Billionaires Set To Be Exposed In New Housing Law
    “Rip The Mask Off Anonymous LLCs:” NYC Billionaires Set To Be Exposed In New Housing Law

    The ultra-rich are panicking after New York lawmakers passed a new law that is expected to expose the names of people who purchased Manhattan condos anonymously over the years with shell companies. 

    The Wall Street Journal said the new law was passed last month, is having “unintended consequences for the legions of billionaires, celebrities and other privacy-seeking condo owners: Every buyer’s name will be publicly available under the state’s Freedom of Information Law.” 

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    Financial elites purchase homes through shell companies, and it’s meant to keep their purchases protected from lawsuits, but also shields the public from knowing what assets they own. 

    The Journal said, in one example, a condo tower in Manhattan, known as 220 Central Park South, had nearly 85% of the condos in the building owned by LLCs.

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    Billionaire investor Ken Griffin famously bought a $240 million condo under the LLC called “NYCP LLC,” according to property records.

    More than 61,000 homes in NYC are owned by shell companies, an analysis of city tax records obtained via The Journal. This means that shell companies own roughly 12% of all condos and 5% of all homes in the city. All condos built since the 2008 financial crisis are owned by LLCs.

    The federal government alleges that some of these shell companies are laundering money through the properties. 

    The ultra-rich, lawyers, brokers, and title companies were shocked when they heard about the new law, which took effect Sept. 13 when Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo approved it.

    “This new law will rip the mask off of these anonymous LLCs that continue to purchase massive amounts of real estate in the Hudson Valley,” said Democratic state Sen. James Skoufis. “Neighbors have a fundamental right to know who owns the home next-door to them.”

    While The Journal didn’t give any details on when the state’s new freedom of information law would dump the treasure trove of names tied to shady LLCs, we assume it could be released by year-end or at least some time in 1H20. 

     


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 21:20

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Today’s News 11th October 2019

  • "A Serious Malfunction" – How French Intelligence Overlooked The Terrorist In Their Ranks
    “A Serious Malfunction” – How French Intelligence Overlooked The Terrorist In Their Ranks

    It’s an alarming oversight with terrifying implications: The intelligence unit of Paris Police somehow overlooked a radicalized Islamic convert within their own ranks. Last week, the troubled individual in question carried out an attack inside Paris Police headquarters that ended with four victims stabbed to death, while the attacker was shot down by his former colleagues.

    WSJ has the full the story of how Mickaël Harpon, the 45-year-old attacker in question, evolved from a quiet IT expert into a disaffected convert to Salafism – a fundamentalist version of Islam that is widely credited as the inspiration for Al Qaeda and other terror groups.

    During a lunch break last week, Harpon bought two knives, returned to the office with them, then suddenly started stabbing colleagues.

    According to WSJ, the attack has destroyed the country’s confidence in its intelligence apparatus and its procedures for rooting out potential purveyors of Islamic terror.

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    Even though he worked inside the Paris Police’s Intelligence Unit, his transformation into a dangerous ideologue somehow went unnoticed. What’s worse: As one of the unit’s IT specialists, Harpon had access to top-secret information, including the identities of agents going undercover inside mosques around the city. His desk was positioned just steps away from the division’s leaders. Now, hundreds of agents are examining flash drives found at Harpon’s desk, and they’re trying to determine whether he shared any classified intel with other extremists.

    Despite his seeming importance within the organization, Harpon told friends that he felt he wasn’t being taken seriously at the office, and that he suspected he had been passed over for promotion because of a disability.

    The disability? Deafness in one ear that forced him to wear a hearing aid. The disability stemmed from his childhood on the French Caribbean island of Martinique. As a boy, Harpon was afflicted with meningitis in his youth. The sometimes fatal illness caused the hearing loss.

    Soon after he was hired by the intelligence division inside the Paris police force in 2003, his superiors found him to be a dedicated and efficient employee. Slowly, he gained more trust and more seniority within the organization. He converted to Islam several years after joining the Paris PD, after he had moved in with a Muslim woman from Madagascar. They eventually married, despite a complaint filed by the woman claiming she had been abused by Harpon. The complaint was later withdrawn, but it resulted in Harpon receiving an administrative sanction.

    When he married, Harpon should have triggered another background check for himself and his bride. However, it was never carried out, and he maintained his security clearance.

    French Interior Minister Christophe Castaner described this oversight as “a malfunction”. “Would that have changed things? I don’t know,” he added.

    But that’s not even the most galling oversight. In 2015, shortly after the shooting at the offices of Charlie Hebdo, a colleague of Harpon’s allegedly heard him comment that the victims “deserved it.” He reported this comment to superiors within the department. But shockingly, nothing was done.

    There was neither a mention of the complaint in Harpon’s personnel file, nor a motion to carry out another background check. His next background check to maintain his security clearance was slated for 2020.

    Castaner described this oversight as “a serious malfunction.”

    A friend of Harpon’s told WSJ that he was a quiet man who never showed any indication that he had become radicalized, and was planning an attack.

    “He felt people didn’t take him seriously because of his handicap,” the friend told WSJ.

    Even his wife told police that she didn’t suspect an attack. At worst, she feared, Harpon might kill himself.

    Hopefully, French intelligence will tighten up its security standards and oversight of its employees after this incident. But winning back the trust of the public will probably require a serious effort on behalf of the agency.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 02:45

  • The Return Of Hyperinflation In Zimbabwe
    The Return Of Hyperinflation In Zimbabwe

    Authored by Pavel Mordasov via The Mises Institute,

    It has been over a decade since Zimbabwe was ravished by one of history’s worst experiences in hyperinflation, reaching 79,600,000,000 percent as prices doubled approximately every 24.7 hours in November of 2008. Today under new leadership, it seems as though the government of Zimbabwe has failed to learn from its previous mistakes in what policy to ascribe to as it enters into another period of tumultuous times and economic hardship for its citizens as hyperinflation has entered the picture again.

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    Zimbabwe’s horrendous experience with hyperinflation came from monetizing its expenses as a result of several years of failed political reforms such as confiscation of agricultural properties and price controls. This resulted in GDP declining -17 percent  in 2008 (see Figure 1). With Zimbabwe’s practice of printing money, the government decided in 2009 to abandon their local currency and replaced it with foreign currency such as the US dollar and African Rand, which helped provide more stabilization.

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    Figure 1: Source: World Bank (Zimbabwe GDP 2008–2018)

    However, after its rapid expansion from 2009 to 2012, Zimbabwe’s economy began to slow down significantly in 2013 as they were met in the beginning of the year with the government having a minuscule balance of $217 in its public account. The same year Robert Mugabe, representing the ZANU-PF party, was reelected in the general election with the promise of continuing indigenization policies. The indigenization policies would attempt to create greater equality and economic growth by violating property rights and requiring foreign or white-owned companies to give a majority portion of their ownership to indigenous blacks. In doing so, Mugabe’s policy sent uncertainty within the market as it discouraged future foreign investment with the threat of asset confiscation, creating a lack of capital to expand production.

    In addition, thanks to continued regime uncertainty, and with no monetary policy of its own, by 2014 Zimbabwe began to experience a shortage of physical cash which had reportedly led some people to use candied sweets and condoms in replace of change. Combined with this challenge, Zimbabwe had a poor harvest as it faced a drought in 2016 affecting five million people causing it to run a USD 1.4 billion deficit that made up 10 percent of national output causing an even further shortage of cash.

    On November 21, 2017, after 37 years of ruling Zimbabwe with an iron fist, Mugabe resigned amidst political pressure of impeachment through a military coup. By the end of that week on the 24th, Emmerson Mnangagwa had become the new president of Zimbabwe. Immediately following Mnangagwa’s ascension to power, the president assured the population of drastic policy changes to help stabilize and boost economic growth.

    Shortages and Price Controls

    In the start of 2019, Zimbabwe’s highly-regulated economy began to experience a shortage of fuel. To curb the demand, and as an attempt to keep fuel supplies within the country, Mnangagwa decided to use the state-managed energy sector to raise diesel by 125 percent and petrol by 131 percent overnight. Such a drastic increase immediately led to a three-day protest leaving 12 people dead and 78 treated for gunshot wounds as a result.

    In Zimbabwe, the increase in the price of fuel has caused transportation costs to soar, which resulted in detrimental effects for businesses as their costs rose. In order to compensate for the increased cost in fuel, entrepreneurs must offset that by either lowering profit margins or raising prices. In an interconnected economy where entrepreneurs rely on each other to supply goods and services to each other and utilize those goods and services for future production when one entrepreneur increases their prices, this begins to cause other entrepreneurs to raise their prices in order to maintain profitability.

    Returning to Local Currency

    By June of this year, worsened by a variety of factors from fuel prices to declining domestic output, ZIMSTATS (Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency) reported that inflation in Zimbabwe had reached 175.66 percent%. In an effort to to combat this hyperinflation, Zimbabwe’s finance minister Mthuli Ncube then declared that the use of foreign currency will be forbidden in domestic transactions and that its civilians can only use electronic Real Time Gross Settlement Dollars (RTGS) to combat the shortage of US dollars. If a citizen decides to withdrawal the RTGS from their local bank, then they will receive paper bond notes in the denominations of $2, $5, $10, and $20.

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Adopting the RTGS as a single unit of exchange is a rapid change from the not too long ago hyperinflation blunder. After 2009, the Zimbabwean state had stabilized its monetary affairs by using nine different currencies as legal tender. Now, the act of abolishing the use of foreign currency will only invoke the practice of off-the-grid transactions through the black market if businesses lose confidence in the RTGS. Confidence in the RTGS has already taken a hit as the black market ratio for RTGS to USD has reached 11 to 1 compared to the governments set ratio at 6.2 to 1. The difference in exchange ratios has shown that Zimbabwe cannot be trusted by issuing its currency as people have yet to build that confidence since it’s debacle in 2008.

    Furthermore, Zimbabwe has suffered a drought this year and is estimated to have its corn crop drop by 54 percent, which would result in the necessity to import corn to make up for the shortage. However, importing goods is challenging, considering the country has been short of US dollars for the past few years. In the same period, Zimbabwe has also undergone continuous power outages due to the drought, lasting up to 18 hours per day and costing manufacturers over $200 million in lost production. To make matters worse President Mnangagwa in August raised fuel for the seventh time up over 500 percent.

    Since the inflation report, Zimbabwe’s finance minister Mthuli Ncube said that inflation figures would be postponed until February 2020. The reason for the delay is so that government officials will have more time and information to accurately determine what the inflation rate is as the present prices are not measured in US dollars. However, many citizens have objected to this postponement with the belief that the government is attempting to hide the real inflation rate while the black market inflation rate in Zimbabwe is estimated to be at 558 percent.

    When government intervenes within the market by setting the price of a commodity outside of the natural market forces of supply and demand while enforcing legal-tender laws to require its citizens to make transactions in a currency they do not trust, such actions will inevitably lead to hyperinflation such as the situation in Zimbabwe. As we reflect upon the present crisis and monitor the situation until the next inflation statistics come out in 2020, the conditions look gloomy going forward unless Zimbabwe changes its direction toward more free-market-oriented policies and avoids continued government intervention that impoverishes the standard of living of its people.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 02:00

  • Former US-Backed Rebel Leader Now Spearheading Attack On US-Backed Syrian Kurds
    Former US-Backed Rebel Leader Now Spearheading Attack On US-Backed Syrian Kurds

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Thursday that his forces have killed 109 Syrian Kurdish militants since the start of the northern Syria incursion, dubbed ‘Operation Peace Spring’. 

    “The operation is currently continuing with the involvement of all our units… 109 terrorists have been killed so far,” Erdogan stated, as quoted by Reuters.

    At the same time pro-Kurdish media sources have cited nearly a dozen pro-Turkish forces killed in border areas where both sides have clashed on the ground. 

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    Currently it appears Turkey is mustering large forces and cutting off communications and ground access points outside the largest Syrian population centers near the border, ahead of expected major clashes.

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    Local reports suggest Kurdish YPG/SDF forces are prepping their fighters for major urban ground warfare while their families continue to flee to safer zones. 

    Though at this point it is impossible to gain an accurate civilian casualty toll figure, which is likely much higher, international reports cite at least 8 Syrian civilians killed after yesterday’s first wave of Turkey’s military operation, including at least two children among the dead. 

    The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), comprised of former ‘Free Syrian Army’ (FSA) and Syrian al-Qaeda linked militants (and likely former ISIS members) — now spearheading the ground invasion  have reportedly captured at least two towns after pushing south from the Turkish border.

    Underscoring the absurd contractions of Washington’s Syria policy over the course of the past seven years of proxy war, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army rebels are actually led by Salim Idris (among two other top commanders), the former Chief of Staff of the Supreme Military Council of the FSA. 

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    The late Senator John McCain posed for a picture with Syrian ‘rebel’ leader Gen. Salim Idris (2nd Right) in 2013. Others photographed alongside McCain were later confirmed to be terrorists which had been involved in kidnapping Shia pilgrims. 

    * * *

    During the early years of the conflict in Syria, when the US was supporting an anti-Assad insurgency in pursuit of regime change, Idris was the “US man in Syria” among other top FSA leaders.

    This means America’s former top “rebel” leader is now leading an invasion force against America’s current Kurdish partners (the SDF) with NATO ally Turkey’s support. 

    As even The New York Times has for years admitted, the United States was paying the salaries of Idris and other “rebel” fighters in Syria seeking to topple Assad, along with supplying them with weapons and increasingly sophisticated military hardware and equipment. Idris was removed as Chief-of-Staff of the FSA’s Supreme Military Council in 2014, after which he became increasingly close to Ankara.

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    Former commander of the US-funded Free Syrian Army, General Salim Idris, via Getty

     And now, Idris is Erdogan’s point man in attacking US-backed SDF forces, as US state-funded Voice of America (VOA) notes in asking ‘Which Syrian Groups Are Involved in Turkey’s Syria Offensive?’: 

    Salim Idris, an SNA commander, said Monday in a press conference in Turkey that his group “is standing in strength, resolve and support with our Turkish brethren in Turkey” in their military operation into Syria.

    Last year the VOA quoted Idris as saying he and his forces were seeking “payback” against Syria Kurds.

    “The problem is not only that the Kurdish fighters cooperated with the Syrian regime and the Russians during the battle for Aleppo, but that the YPG burned dozens of Arab villages and displaced their inhabitants,” Idris told VOA.

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    Given Erdogan and other top Turkish leaders’ vow of “demographic correction” in northern Syria through use of military force — which is clearly code for ethnic cleansing along Turkey’s border — it is all the more disturbing.

    * * * 

    Considering the years-long absurd contradictions inherent in America’s actions in Syria, maybe this is why Trump wants to get the hell out? 

    “I am trying to end the ENDLESS WARS,” the president tweeted again on Thursday.

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    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/11/2019 – 01:00

  • America's Political Implosion
    America’s Political Implosion

    Authored by Finian Cunningham via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The polarization in American politics has become so extreme there seems no longer to be any center ground. The political establishment is consequently imploding into an abyss of its own making.

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    President Trump is being driven into an impeachment process by Democrats and their media supporters who accuse him of being “unpatriotic” and a danger to national security.

    Trump and Republicans hit back at Democrats and the “deep state” whom they condemn for conspiring to overthrow the presidency in a coup dressed up as “impeachment”.

    The White House is being subpoenaed, the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives wants to access transcripts to all of Trump’s phone calls to foreign leaders; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has blasted congressmen for “harassing the State Department” in their search of evidence to indict Trump. Trump calls the impeachment bid a “witch-hunt”.

    Republican Representatives protest that the US is facing a dark day of constitutional crisis, whereby opposing Democratic party leaders are abusing their office by accusing Trump of “high crimes” without ever presenting evidence.

    It’s an Alice in Wonderland scenario writ large, where the gravest verdict is being cast before evidence is presented, never mind proven; the president is guilty until proven innocent.

    Trump, in his turn, has berated senior Democrat Adam Schiff, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, for “treason” – a capital offense. Are federal police obliged to arrest him? Schiff is accused of colluding with a supposed CIA whistleblower in concocting the complaint that Trump tried to extort Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to dig dirt on Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.

    There seems no end to this political civil war in the US. The American political class is literally tearing itself apart, destroying its ability to govern with any normal function.

    So-called liberal media outlets, in lockstep with the Democrats, inculpate Trump for wrongdoing, while they staunchly assert that credible reports of Joe Biden abusing his former vice presidential office to enrich his son over Ukraine gas business are false. Many Americans don’t see it that way. They see Biden as being up to his neck in past corruption; they also see a flagrant double-standard of the establishment protecting Biden from investigation while hounding Trump at every possible opportunity, even when evidence against Trump is scant.

    What Trump is being subjected to is the same “highly probable” paranoia that Russia has been subjected to by Washington over recent years. Guilt is asserted without evidence. It becomes a “fact” by endless repetition of baseless claims, such as Russia allegedly interfering in US elections, or allegedly destabilizing Ukraine. Hundreds of economic sanctions have been imposed on Moscow as a result of this blame game, a game that, ironically, Trump has also indulged.

    Ironically, Trump and the very highest political office of president is getting the same phobic treatment. No matter that the two-year Mueller Report into alleged Trump-Russia collusion collapsed in a pile of dust for lack of evidence, the Democrats and their media, as well as their deep state patrons, have persisted to accuse the president of enlisting a foreign power, Ukraine, to boost his electoral chances.

    The transcript of Trump’s phone call with Ukraine’s Zelensky back in July shows he did not make a quid pro quo demand linking US military aid to a requested investigation into alleged corruption by former Vice President Joe Biden. Nevertheless, Democrats and their political establishment allies are relentless in pursuing the impeachment of Trump. Based on such flimsy reasoning, this impeachment process looks like a euphemism for “coup” – to overturn the result of the 2016 presidential election. The so-called “Russiagate” debacle failed for lack of evidence; now it is “Ukrainegate” that is the pretext for pushing the coup attempt.

    Under freedom of information release, Judicial Watch in the past week has uncovered categorical proof that the Mueller probe was a coup attempt to oust Trump. Unsealed communications between the Department of Justice, FBI and liberal media outlets show a clear motive and deliberate orchestration to topple Trump based on no evidence of wrongdoing.

    America’s democracy and constitution is being trashed by unelected shadowy forces, aided and abetted by prestigious media outlets like the New York Times. These forces presume to know better or have more privilege than their fellow Americans who “voted the wrong way”.

    The inescapable conclusion is that powerful political forces within the US simply do not recognize the democratic rights of the electorate who voted Trump into office. Not only do these forces not respect democratic principle, they also, patently, do not respect due legal process or the high offices of their own government. This is a lurking ideology of dictatorship and fascism. Paradoxically, these labels are pinned on the maverick Trump. More accurately, they apply to the politicians and media who claim to be “liberal” and “democrats”.

    The accelerating political implosion in the US nails the lie to oft-repeated American proclamations about their nation being the paragon of “sacred” democratic virtue and rule of law. And the people who are doing the damage to US politics and its constitution are “patriotic” Americans, not Russia or any other imagined foreign adversary.

    Is that not poetic justice after all the decades of calumny, deception and self-declared “exceptional” American vanity.

    America is at war with itself. It is Americans themselves who destroying their own political system, and perhaps even the very society, with their own hands and their addled, paranoid brains – without any assistance from a “foreign enemy”.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/10/2019 – 23:45

    Tags

  • D.C. Considers 1.5C-Per-Ounce Soda Excise Tax One Week After Implementing 2% Soft Drink Sales Tax
    D.C. Considers 1.5C-Per-Ounce Soda Excise Tax One Week After Implementing 2% Soft Drink Sales Tax

    Today in “we must find new things to tax, even if we’ve already taxed them” news, Washington DC’s City Council is considering a plan to place a 1.5 cent per ounce excise tax on soda and other sweetened beverages, according to Fooddive.

    The proposal comes just a week after the DC Council put an additional 2% sales tax on soft drinks and it already has support from 8 of the 13 DC council members. It will affect soda and any other sugary drinks, such as Gatorade, iced coffee and orange juice.

    Drinks like diet soda or other beverages containing artificial sweeteners would be exempt from the tax, as would alcohol and beverages with milk as the main ingredient. The estimated $21 million in annual revenues the tax would bring in will go to educational and food programs.

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    Naturally, the beverage industry stands in stark opposition to the tax. Ellen Valentino, a spokeswoman for the DC Beverage Association, called the tax a “big mistake” and said “people will flee in order to purchase beverages and other grocery items outside the city’s borders.”

    And yet again, it’s the consumers that wind up getting screwed: the tax would add about a dollar to the price of a 2 liter bottle of soda. This will cause manufacturers and retailers to likely hike prices to consumers. Some have speculated that since Washington DC is close to the Maryland border, people could travel across state lines for their soft drink needs.

    These types of taxes have also been enacted in several cities in California, Boulder, Philadelphia and in the state of West Virginia. Cook County Illinois implemented a similar tax in 2017 but repealed it just months later after pressure from the American Beverage Association. California’s proposed tax didn’t make it through the state assembly this year, although it may be brought up again soon.

    States like Arizona and Michigan have already passed legislation prohibiting local governments from adopting food and beverage taxes.

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    The effect of the tax has been noticeable where it has been implemented.

    A study published earlier this year took five years of data from Berkeley, California, and found a 52% decrease in soda consumption in the first three years after the tax was adopted. After two months of Philadelphia’s soda tax, which is the same rate as the proposed D.C. excised tax, a study found residents were about 40% less likely to drink sugary drinks daily than those in other cities. Philadelphia’s tax projections, however, were lowered 15% in March 2018 and didn’t make major changes in the population’s consumption of healthier fare, so its tax could face a repeal.

    Beverage makers are likely to posture up for a significant fight of the DC excise tax. The beverage industry has already spent $48.9 million since 2009 to work to oppose these taxes.

    But two other groups of concerned individuals, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Heart Association, are both urging legislation to reduce consumption of sugary beverages, not only through taxes, but also through marketing campaigns. They argue that milk and water should be the default drinks for children in vending machines and that soda should not be allowed to be purchased with government benefits.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/10/2019 – 23:25

  • Did China Just Announce The End Of US Primacy In The Pacific?
    Did China Just Announce The End Of US Primacy In The Pacific?

    Authored by Scott Ritter via TheAmericanConservative.com,

    Last week’s military parade previewed a series of game-changing weapons that could neutralize American seapower…

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    For decades, the United States has taken China’s ballistic missile capability for granted, assessing it as a low-capability force with limited regional impact and virtually no strategic value. But on October 1, during a massive military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Beijing put the U.S., and the world, on notice that this assessment was no longer valid. 

    In one fell swoop, China may have nullified America’s strategic nuclear deterrent, the U.S. Pacific Fleet, and U.S. missile defense capability. Through its impressive display of new weapons systems, China has underscored the reality that while the United States has spent the last two decades squandering trillions of dollars fighting insurgents in the Middle East, Beijing was singularly focused on overcoming American military superiority in the Pacific. If the capabilities of these new weapons are taken at face value, China will have succeeded on this front. 

    In the West, it is called RMA, short for “Revolution in Military Affairs.” The term was first coined by Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov in the early 1980s. Ogarkov, who was at the time serving as the chief of the Soviet general staff, spoke of “developments in nonnuclear means of destruction [which] promise to make it possible to sharply increase (by at least an order of magnitude) the destructive potential of conventional weapons, bringing them closer, so to speak, to weapons of mass destruction in terms of effectiveness.” 

    Ogarkov’s work caught the attention of Andrew Marshall, who headed the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment. Marshall took Ogarkov’s premise and put it into action, integrating new technology with innovative operational concepts that positioned the U.S. military to be able to prevail over a numerically superior Soviet army in a ground war in Europe. The capabilities of Marshall’s RMA were potently displayed during the Gulf War in 1991, when the U.S. led a coalition that handily defeated Saddam Hussein.

    One of the nations keenly observing the impact of the American RMA in the Persian Gulf was China. Chinese military theorists studied how Marshall adapted Ogarkov’s theories into an American version of RMA, and responded with a Chinese adaptation, developing weapons specifically intended to overcome American superiority in critical areas. 

    These weapons became known as “shashoujian,” or “the Assassin’s Mace,” derived from the traditional Chinese way of describing a weapon of surprising power. “A shashoujian,” a contemporary Chinese military journal notes, “is a weapon that has an enormous terrifying effect on the enemy and that can produce an enormous destructive assault.” More importantly, the modern Chinese concept of shashoujian envisions not a single weapon, but rather a system of weapons that combine to produce the desired effect.

    Defeating the United States in a ground war has never been an objective of the Chinese military—the Korean War was an historical anomaly. China’s focus instead has been to develop shashoujian weapons to safeguard its national security and territorial integrity. This couldn’t be accomplished simply by mimicking the American RMA example; they needed to create a uniquely Chinese military superiority that combined Western technology with Eastern wisdom. “This,” the Chinese believe, “is our trump card for winning a 21st century war.” 

    For China, the three principle points of potential military friction with the U.S. are Taiwan, South Korea-Japan, and the South China Sea. Apart from South Korea and Japan, where the U.S. has significant ground and air forces already forward deployed, the main threat to China is maritime power projected by American aircraft carrier battlegroups and amphibious assault ships. The Chinese response was to develop a range of anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities designed to target American naval forces before they arrived in any potential contested waters.

    Traditionally, the U.S. Navy has relied on a combination of surface warships armed with sophisticated air defense systems, submarines, and the aircraft carrier’s considerable contingent of combat aircraft to defend against hostile threats in time of war. China’s response came in the form of the DF-21D medium-range missile, dubbed the “carrier killer.” With a range of between 1,450 and 1,550 kilometers, the DF-21D employs a maneuverable warhead that can deliver a conventional high-explosive warhead with a circular error of probability (CEP) of 10 meters—more than enough to strike a carrier-sized target. 

    To compliment the DF-21D, China has also deployed the DF-26 intermediate-range missile, which it has dubbed the “Guam killer,” named after the American territory home to major U.S. military installations. Like the DF-21, the DF-26 has a conventionally armed variant, which is intended to be used against ships. Both missiles were featured in the 2015 military parade commemorating the founding of the PRC. 

    The U.S. responded to the DF-21/DF-26 threat by upgrading its anti-missile destroyers and cruisers, and forward deploying the advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) surface-to-air missile system to Guam. A second THAAD system was also deployed to South Korea. From America’s perspective, these upgrades offset the Chinese advances in ballistic missile technology, restoring the maritime power projection capability that has served as the backbone of the U.S. military posture in the Pacific.

    As capable as they were, however, the DF-21D and DF-26 were not the shashoujian weapons envisioned by Chinese military planners, representing as they did reciprocal capability, as opposed to a game-changing technology. The unveiling of the true shashoujian was reserved for last week’s parade, and it came in the form of the DF-100 and DF-17 missiles. 

    The DF-100 is a vehicle-mounted supersonic cruise missile “characterized by a long range, high precision and quick responsiveness,” according to the Chinese press. When combined with the DF-21/DF-26 threat, the DF-100 is intended to overwhelm any existing U.S. missile defense capability, turning the Navy into a virtual sitting duck. As impressive as the DF-100 is, however, it was overshadowed by the DF-17, a long-range cruise missile equipped with a hypersonic glide warhead, which maneuvers at over seven times the speed of sound—faster than any of the missiles the U.S. possesses to intercept it. Nothing in the current U.S. arsenal can defeat the DF-17—not the upgraded anti-missile ships, THAAD, or even the Ground Based Interceptors (GBI) currently based in Alaska. 

    In short, in the event of a naval clash between China and the U.S., the likelihood of America’s fleet being sent to the bottom of the Pacific Ocean is very high.

    The potential loss of the Pacific Fleet cannot be taken lightly: it could serve as a trigger for the release of nuclear weapons in response. The threat of an American nuclear attack has always been the ace in the hole for the U.S. regarding China, given that nation’s weak strategic nuclear capability. 

    Since the 1980s, China has possessed a small number of obsolete liquid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles as their strategic deterrent. These missiles have a slow response time and could easily be destroyed by any concerted pre-emptive attack. China sought to upgrade its ICBM force in the late 1990s with a new road-mobile solid fuel missile, the DF-31. Over the course of the next two decades, China has upgraded the DF-31, improving its accuracy and mobility while increasing the number of warheads it carries from one to three. But even with the improved DF-31, China remained at a distinct disadvantage with the U.S. when it came to overall strategic nuclear capability. 

    While the likelihood that a few DF-31 missiles could be launched and their warheads reach their targets in the U.S., the DF-31 was not a “nation killing” system. In short, any strategic nuclear exchange between China and the U.S. would end with America intact and China annihilated. As such, any escalation of military force by China that could have potentially ended in an all-out nuclear war was suicidal, in effect nullifying any advantage China had gained by deploying the DF-100 and DF-17 missiles.

    Enter the DF-41, China’s ultimate shashoujian weapon. A three-stage, road-mobile ICBM equipped with between six and 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads, the DF-41 provides China with a nuclear deterrent capable of surviving an American nuclear first strike and delivering a nation-killing blow to the United States in retaliation. The DF-41 is a strategic game changer, allowing China to embrace the mutual assured destruction (MAD) nuclear deterrence posture previously the sole purview of the United States and Russia. 

    In doing so, China has gained the strategic advantage over the U.S. when it comes to competing power projection in the Pacific. Possessing a virtually unstoppable A2/AD capability, Beijing is well positioned to push back aggressively against U.S. maritime power projection in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits

    Most who watched the Chinese military parade on October 1 saw what looked to be some interesting missiles. For the informed observer, however, they were witnessing the end of an era. Previously, the United States could count on its strategic nuclear deterrence to serve as a restraint against any decisive Chinese reaction to aggressive American military maneuvers in the Pacific. Thanks to the DF-41, this capability no longer exists. Now the U.S. will be compelled to calculate how much risk it is willing to take when it comes to enforcing its sacrosanct “freedom of navigation.” 

    While the U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s independence remains steadfast, its willingness to go to war with China over the South China Sea may not be as firm. The bottom line is that China, with a defense budget of some $250 billion, has successfully combined “Western technology with Eastern wisdom,” for which the U.S. has no response. 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/10/2019 – 23:05

  • Border Patrol Installing Invisible Shields At Wall To Stop Drug Smuggling Drones
    Border Patrol Installing Invisible Shields At Wall To Stop Drug Smuggling Drones

    A new report from Defense One shows the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is installing an invisible shield along President Trump’s Mexico-US border wall that will deny access to drug smuggling drones.

    CBP recently signed a $1.2 million deal with Citadel Defense Company to install an automated, invisible defense shield at the border to detect and engage unwanted drones using proprietary machine learning algorithms. 

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    The contract is for six systems, and each will provide a 1.8-mile hemisphere of protection horizontally and 1,000 feet vertically on an unknown part of the wall. This contract is likely a pilot run, and if the results exceed expectations, more systems could be deployed across the border.

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    According to Citadel, the “autonomous, artificial intelligence-enabled counter-drone solution” is essentially a drone jamming tool that can easily be deployed within minutes. The system monitors the airspace above, can commandeer a drone’s navigation system and reroute its path back to its home base or safely land it on the ground. 

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    The contract includes 12 months of software upgrades, support, and training, said Defense One. 

    “Drones have become a greater challenge along the border. Our nation’s border agents deserve the safest and most advanced technology available,” Citadel CEO Christopher Williams. “Citadel’s automated solution provides front-line operators with an awareness of drone threats and decision-making to respond faster than the adversary.”

    Williams said the initial rollout is for six systems, collectively can provide a hemisphere of protection of about 11 miles.

    “Technology is being deployed in limited quantities in 2019 after months of testing and validation,” he said. “Following 2020 presidential budget decisions, the potential for additional systems at larger quantities will be explored.”

    Shown below are several examples of drug smuggling drones found on the Mexico-US border. 

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    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/10/2019 – 22:45

  • How Low Will US Births Go?!?
    How Low Will US Births Go?!?

    Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

    Summary

    • Births in America continue to tumble despite a growing child bearing population.

    • The growth among the child bearing population is decelerating and this population will begin outright declines around 2029.

    • US births are likely to continue falling, faster and far deeper, while current Census estimates continue to anticipate growth (continually just around the corner).

    The chart below is the 20 to 40 year old US population (blue line) and the columns are the annual change in that population (maroon columns).  The 1960 to 1990 population surge in the wake of the baby boom is easy to see as is the echo-boom from early 2005 through the 2020’s.

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    From a births perspective, it doesn’t matter what the total US population is…the only population that matters are those capable of child birth.  I show the 20 to 40 year US population as they are responsible for over 90% of the births while those under 20 and those over 40 are producing so few children relative to 20 to 40 year olds as to be statistical noise (births per thousand by age group is detailed by the CDC HERE).

    From 1957 through 2007, the child bearing population increased by 72% while births increased only 0.2% (just two tenths of 1%).  Obviously, it was the rise in the child bearing population offsetting the collapse in the fertility rate that maintained the flat birth rate.

    • 1957 through 2007
      • Child bearing population rose by 34.8 million (72% increase)

      • Annual births rose by 10 thousand (0.2% increase)

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    2007 through 2019 was the period that births were anticipated to spike with the rising echo-boom child bear population busily reproducing.  An echo baby-boom was anticipated.  Instead, a prolonged and deepening baby-bust has taken place.  According to the CDC, in the 1st quarter of 2019 births continued to plummet across the board, but I’m assuming 2019 births will come in slightly less negative through the remainder of 2019 (I’m likely overestimating 2019 actual births at 3.73 million).

    • 2007 through 2019
      • Child bearing population rose by +9.3 million (11.5% increase)

      • Annual births fell by thousand (13.7% decrease)

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    The implications for what comes next should be obvious.

    • 2019 through 2029
      • Child bearing population estimated to rise “just” 3.2 million or a little over 3%

      • Births are likely to continue falling as deeply negative fertility rates overcome what little child bearing population growth remains

    • 2029 through 2040
      • Child bearing population estimated to fall 1.9 million

      • Births likely to fall even faster with a combined declining child bearing population and continued deeply negative fertility rates

    Census birth estimates from 2000 (plus the nearly identical ’08 estimate) and 2017 are displayed below.  Clearly, since 2008, the Census is having a hard time adequately curbing their enthusiastic projections.  Although each projection is lower than the last, each projection continues significantly overestimating births.  With decelerating growth among the child bearing population through the 2020’s and outright child bearing population declines in the 2030’s…there is no reason for birth projections to be rising but the Census is having a very hard time catching down to reality.  In truth, there is good reason to begin projecting ongoing and deepening birth declines in the 2020 Census estimate (my estimate at a realistic 2020 Census estimate is included below, blue dashed line).

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    From 2009 through 2019, actual births versus estimated births were 5.3 million fewer than anticipated (and this includes all births, whether the mother was here legally or otherwise).  This is a crack in present and future growth nearly five times larger than all Americans lost in all wars the US has ever fought!  That’s 5.3 million Americans not in existence and not consuming the average $25,000 per/capita annually throughout their lifetimes.   But what is now a crack turns into a chasm, taking the same ’08 birth estimate versus a more realistic birth estimate through 2040, this represents almost 34 million fewer births (-22%) than was estimated in 2000 and 2008.  The Census will be forced to continue collapsing their total US population projections, as they have been doing since 2008 (detailed HERE).  The implications for declining potential economic growth based on collapsing quantity of potential consumers (while productivity, innovation, and advancements continue increasing capacity…for a declining basis of consumption) should have the CBO and the like heads spinning.

    A continuation of the current falling fertility and birth rates is a really, really good bet (chart below).

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    The age segment that will continue to grow rapidly, the post childbearing 45+ year old population (red line, below).  Notice even showing the broadest child bearing population (15 to 45 year-olds, yellow line), the stall in growth since 1990 relative to the growth of elderly.  Among the 45+ year-olds, the majority of population growth over the coming decade will be among 75+ year-olds, a segment with less than 10% labor force participation, consumes at very low relative levels, and utilizes little to no credit (nor should they, primarily living on fixed incomes).

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    The debt based US economic system premised on perpetual consumptive growth (as a dual net importer and net debtor) is now facing long term depopulation from the bottom-up while the numbers of elderly surge.  But only those who suggest this is likely to lead to some sort of “hiccup” are the crazy ones?!?

    Population data via US Census Population Projections and UN World Population Prospects 2019


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/10/2019 – 22:25

  • California Hit By Dual Shock: LA Gas Prices Spike Above $5 As Residents Learn Solar Panels Don't Work In Blackouts
    California Hit By Dual Shock: LA Gas Prices Spike Above $5 As Residents Learn Solar Panels Don’t Work In Blackouts

    Millions of Californians may have just suffered an unprecedented, induced blackout by the state’s largest (and bankrupt) utility, PG&E, just so it isn’t blamed for starting even more fires causing it to go even more bankrupt… but at least the price of gas is soaring.

    According to Fox5NY, citing figures from AAA and the Oil Price Information Service, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in Los Angeles County was $4.25 on Wednesday, 4.5 cents higher than one week ago, 57.6 cents more than one month ago and 37.1 cents greater than one year ago. It has also risen 86.4 cents since the start of the year. What is more troubling is that as California gas prices reached the highest level in the state since 2015, some Los Angeles area gas stations are charging more than $5 a gallon.

    The gas price spike started last month after Saudi Arabia oil production facilities were attacked, and accelerated after three Los Angeles-area refineries slowed or halted production due to maintenance issues and no imported gasoline was available to make up for the shortfall, according to Jeffrey Spring, the Automobile Club of Southern California’s corporate communications manager.

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    The shortage was made worse after local refineries cut back production of summer-blend gasoline in anticipation of switching to selling the winter blend beginning Nov. 1.

    But wait, there’s more: America’s most “environmentally conscious” state got a harsh lesson in electrical engineering when many of the tens of thousands of people hit by this week’s blackout learned the hard way that solar installations don’t keep the lights on during a power outage.

    That, as Bloomberg reports, is “because most panels are designed to supply power to the grid, not directly to houses. During the heat of the day, solar systems generate more juice than a home can handle. However, they don’t produce power at all at night. So systems are tied into the grid, and the vast majority aren’t working this week as PG&E cut power to much of Northern California to prevent wildfires.”

    Of course, the only way for most solar panels to work during a blackout is pairing them with batteries, however as Tesla has found out the hard way, that market is just starting to take off and even so it’s having a very difficult time making headway. The largest U.S. rooftop solar company, Sunrun, said hundreds of its customers are making it through the blackouts with batteries. Alas, the total number of those affected – and without power – is in the hundreds of thousands.

    “It’s the perfect combination for getting through these shutdowns,” Sunrun Chairman Ed Fenster said in an interview. He expects battery sales to boom in the wake of the outages.

    For those wondering if their appliances can work of the power generated by a Tesla, the answer is no, at least without special equipment. Incidentally, without electricity, a Tesla itself won’t run. So those Californians who still have “uncool” internal combustion engines are in luck; they just may have to pay nearly $6 per gallon soon to fill up.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/10/2019 – 22:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 10th October 2019

  • For The First Time Ever, Greece Issues Negative Yielding Debt
    For The First Time Ever, Greece Issues Negative Yielding Debt

    As armies of fixed income strategists battle over whether US Treasuries are facing higher or lower yields, Greece has no such qualms and in a historic shift today, the former bond market pariah and Eurozone’s most indebted nation, joined the exclusive club of negative-yielding European nations when bond investors lined up to pay the nation that was at the heart of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

    A sale of €487.5 million of 13-week bills on Wednesday drew Greece’s first-ever negative yield of minus 0.02% as investors now pay Athens for the privilege of lending it cash, as Bloomberg first reported. Greece joins the likes of Ireland, Italy and Spain – not to mention virtually all core Eurozone nations – which benefit from the ECB’s insane monetary policy and deepening fears of a global recession.

    It’s been an unprecedented turnaround for twice bankrupt Eurozone member, whose bondholders suffered massive losses back in March 2012 when the country was forced to accept the biggest bond restructuring in history, bringing the Eurozone to the verge of collapse.

    Just a few years and several trillions in bond purchases by the ECB later, the region is grappling with an altogether different problem – the spread of negative yields, which reduces borrowing costs for governments in a form of soft default, one which is crushing savers, pension funds and insurers, and which has prompted some of the most respected names in finance to shriek in terror as the cost of money in even Europe’s most insolvent nations is now negative.

    Jon Day, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management, said the move was “another symptom” of the “global grab for yield, especially in euro-denominated bonds,” pointing out that short-dated Greek bonds were previously one of the few government markets where a positive return was on offer. Indeed, as recently as 2017, the Greek 13-week bills yielded a “generous” 2.70% before they started their journey to NIRP just over two years ago.

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    Still, despite Europe’s artificial, central bank-propped up bond market, nothing has been fixed with respect to the Greek economy: “There remain substantial risks around Greece’s financial position and it remains vulnerable to a significant economic slowdown,” Day said. “Current yields on their bonds do not reflect this risk.”

    Greece foray into negative rates comes after the ECB cut its deposit rates even deeper into negative territory and said it would restart quantitative easing (unlike in the US, the ECB has no qualms about calling “not a QE” by its real name). Investors are also looking toward fiscal stimulus as the ability of monetary policy to stoke growth is tested to its limits, and unlike Germany, we expect Greece to fully take advantage of negative yields to stick it to creditors “investing” with other people’s pensions. Earlier this week, the nation also took advantage of record-low borrowing costs by selling 10-year bonds this week at a yield of 1.5%.

    Greece’s government is forecasting 2.8% economic growth in 2020, which it says puts it on track to meet a budget target agreed with creditors while still enacting tax relief measures.

    “Greece issuing negative-yielding bills is more evidence of the positive effect that negative interest rates and QE has on debt sustainability for governments,” said Mizuho’s head of rates strategy Peter Chatwell, even though it is not quite clear how Greece accumulating even more debt to “fix” a catastrophe that was the result of record debt actually works out in the long run… but that’s ok, by then it will be someone else’s problem.

    “Side effects are large for banks and investors, but for the governments there are very significant benefits.”

    Indeed: as the world’s banks and investors founder, at least perpetually corrupt and incompetent governments are rewarded, and all it took was several years of insane monetary policy by a former Goldmanite to unleash the biggest revolution in the European bond market in history, one which will end in the biggest bond bubble crash ever seen.

    But – as the supporters of the ECB will tell you – “not yet”…


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/10/2019 – 02:45

  • UK: New Subversive "Guidance" For Journalists
    UK: New Subversive “Guidance” For Journalists

    Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

    The British think-tank Policy Exchange, recently published a report, Eroding the Free Press, about a leaked draft of “Guidance for Reporting on Islam and Muslims”. The guidance was drafted by the Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO), the UK’s independent press regulator, an initiative that IPSO announced in late 2018. In the past, IPSO has, among other issues, published guidance on the reporting of death and inquests, sexual offencessuicides, and transgender people. According to IPSO, its guidance is “designed to support editors and journalists” and “does not limit or restrict editorial decision making, but may inform that decision making”.

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    In a January 2019 blog on IPSO’s main priorities for 2019, IPSO Head of Standards Charlotte Urwin laid out the five priorities of the year. “Reporting of Islam and Muslims” was listed as the first priority and described in the following way:

    “In October 2018, we began working towards producing guidance for journalists on the reporting of Islam and Muslims in the UK, an area of broad political and social concern. The guidance will help journalists to report on a sensitive area, whilst also ensuring that it does not impinge their right to criticise, challenge or stimulate debate. We have established an informal working group to help us draft the guidance, bringing together academics who have research experience in relation to Islam and Muslims in the UK and representatives of organisations interested in the coverage of Islam…”

    Policy Exchange’s report on the leaked guidance gives rise for concern.

    In the words of the report, the guidance, “seems designed to bind the hands of UK newspapers when it comes to reporting on stories relating to Islam and Muslims – with potentially serious long-term consequences for the workings of a free and independent press”.

    According to the Policy Exchange report, the draft IPSO guidance states:

    “Journalists should be aware that their content can have an impact on the wider community and on how minority communities are treated. Inaccuracies and insensitivities can damage communities and prevents their accurate representation. They can also contribute to members of communities feeling divorced from, or misunderstood, by the media. Finally, inaccuracies and unbalanced coverage can work to increase tension between communities, which can make harassment more likely”.

    As the Policy Exchange authors write:

    “In all of this, there seems to be a suggestion that journalists should take a different approach to covering Muslims than that employed towards other faith groups. This all seems remarkably ill-conceived. If we ruled out reporting on matters specific to Muslims not only would we miss some big issues – not least the threat from Islamist extremist terrorism, which continues to dwarf other global terrorist threats – but we would also be unable to report properly on discrimination against Muslims. More generally, we must ask: is it really the role of journalists to consider community cohesion before truth and accuracy? And what are the potential consequences of such an ethos?”

    In addition, the draft guidance has a section on “accuracy in reporting”, which suggests that journalists should do one, or all of the following: “Provide contextualising information; present more than one opinion; verify the information from another source”. While sounding banal and innocuous in and of itself, the guidance goes on to say, more disturbingly:

    “Identifying the ‘right’ person to speak to can be extremely challenging and journalists should be aware that individuals and organisations may have different interpretations of a particular belief. Journalists may find it helpful to consider the expertise of the person/organisation, their background and any previous comments on the issues, in deciding who to approach for comment.”

    In a previous draft, the Policy Exchange report tells us, the word was not “expertise”, but “representativeness”.

    It does appear to be the case that what is uppermost in the minds of the drafters of the guidance is not so much factually accurate reporting, but concerns of a far more political nature, namely those of accommodating religious and cultural “sensitivities” and avoiding the causing of any offense.

    Another aspect also concerns the authors of the Policy Exchange report: The “informal working group” under IPSO that has authored the guidance apparently includes members who have publicly supported[3] the new definition of “Islamophobia” as defined by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims (APPG). In December 2018 the APPG published Report on the inquiry into a working definition of Islamophobia / anti-Muslim hatred. The report, conflating religion with ethnic origin or nationality, defined “Islamophobia” as a form of racism: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” For a full account of that report, see Gatestone’s previous reporting on the issue here.

    The authors of the Policy Exchange Report write:

    “Against this backdrop, one might ask whether the IPSO ‘guidance’ process is being used to advance the kind of ‘anti-Islamophobia’ agenda promoted by the APPG on British Muslims… despite the fact that the Government has deemed that definition not fit for purpose… one of the things that makes the APPG’s attempts to institutionalise an illiberal definition of Islamophobia so unpalatable, is the fact that it resembles a form of blasphemy law, protecting Islam specifically, implemented by the back door“.

    In conclusion, the Policy Exchange report states:

    “Taken as a whole, the IPSO guidance document seems to mark a decisive shift in the purpose of the regulator – which takes it beyond considerations of accuracy or discrimination, as per the Editor’s Code. Instead, it is moving into the realm of ‘insensitivities’ and ‘unbalanced coverage’ – elastic and subjective terms”.

    Policy Exchange’s description of the leaked guidance is hardly shocking if one recalls the campaigns and guidelines made by European journalists’ own organizations in recent years. As previously reported by Gatestone, the largest organization of journalists in Europe, the European Federation of Journalists (EJF) — which represents more than 320,000 journalists in 72 journalists’ organizations across 45 countries and claims that it “promotes and defends the rights to freedom of expression and information as guaranteed by Article 10 of the European convention on human rights” — ran a Europe-wide campaign, sponsored by the EU, called “Media against Hate” in 2016-2018. The purpose of it was to, “improve media coverage related to migration, refugees, religion and marginalised groups… counter hate speech, intolerance, racism and discrimination… improve implementation of legal frameworks regulating hate speech and freedom of speech…”

    None of the above appears to have had much to do with freedom of expression or journalism. Rather, it was actually a political campaign, spearheaded by one of the largest journalism organizations and supported by the Rights, Equality and Citizenship (REC) Programme of the European Union. The Council of Europe, another international political body constituted by 47 European member states was also listed as a partner. The mix-up of government interests with journalistic principles seemed to bother no one.

    Similarly, in September 2017, a project called respectwords.org published guidelines — the publication of which were financially supported by the Rights, Equality and Citizenship (REC) Programme of the European Union — on reporting about migration and minorities. According to those guidelines, “more than 150 European radio outlets and 1300 journalists from the eight RESPECT WORDS countries (Austria, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Slovenia and Spain) have joined together to strengthen media coverage of migrants and minorities, an indispensable tool in the fight against hate speech”.

    One of the guidelines in the book, which IPSO’s recommendations seem to echo, was to “Remember that sensitive information (eg race and ethnicity, religious or philosophical beliefs, party affiliation or union affiliation, health and sexual information) should only be mentioned when it is necessary for the public’s understanding of the news”. The key here, again, seems to have been to respect “sensitivities” and avoid causing offense – not the factually correct reporting of newsworthy events. The guidelines also advised:

    “Take care not to further stigmatise terms such as ‘Muslim’ or ‘Islam’ by associating them with particular acts… Don’t allow extremists’ claims about acting ‘in the name of Islam’ to stand unchallenged. Highlight… the diversity of Muslim communities…”

    The respectwords.org guidelines, two years old, barely seek to hide that they are a political tool.

    This, then, is the highly politicized atmosphere that journalists breathe and that their organizations openly promote. It is hardly surprising, then, that even independent regulators, such as IPSO, choose to take what looks like a similar path. As for the eroding of the freedom of the press, the question seems not so much to be “if” as “to what degree”.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/10/2019 – 02:00

  • Forget Facial Recog: DHS New Amazon-Based Database Uses Scars, Tattoos, & Your Voice To ID You
    Forget Facial Recog: DHS New Amazon-Based Database Uses Scars, Tattoos, & Your Voice To ID You

    Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

    These days, you can’t really go anywhere without encountering cameras.  Going into a store? Chances are there are security cameras. Getting money at an ATM? More cameras. Driving through the streets of a city? More cameras still. Your neighbors may have those doorbells from Amazon that are surveilling the entire neighborhood.

    And many of these cameras are tied into facial recognition databases, or the footage can be quite easily compared there if “authorities” are looking for somebody.

    But as it turns out, it isn’t just facial recognition we have to worry about.

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    DHS has a new recognition system called HART.

    Homeland Advanced Recognition Technology system is the alarming new identity system being put in place by the Department of Homeland Security.

    DHS is retiring its old system that was based on facial recognition. It’s being replaced with HART, a cloud-based system that holds information about the identities of hundreds of millions of people.

    The new cloud-based platform, called the Homeland Advanced Recognition Technology System, or HART, is expected to bring more processing power, new analytics capabilities and increased accuracy to the department’s biometrics operations. It will also allow the agency to look beyond the three types of biometric data it uses today—face, iris and fingerprint—to identify people through a variety of other characteristics, like palm prints, scars, tattoos, physical markings and even their voices. (source)

    Incidentally, the cloud hosting for HART is being done by none other than Amazon – you know, the ones with surveillance devices like the Ring doorbell and the Alexa home assistant and the Nest home security system. Does anyone see a pattern here?

    Also note that Amazon Web Services also hosts data for the CIA, the DoD, and NASA.

    More about HART

    As HART becomes more established, that old saying “you can run but you can’t hide” is going to seem ever more true. The DHS is delighted at how much further the new system can take them into surveilling Americans.

    And by freeing the agency from the limitations of its legacy system, HART could also let officials grow the network of external partners with whom they share biometric data and analytics capabilities, according to Patrick Nemeth, director of identity operations within Homeland Security’s Office of Biometric Identity Management.

    “When we get to HART, we will be better, faster, stronger,” Nemeth said in an interview with Nextgov. “We’ll be relieved of a lot of the capacity issues that we have now … and then going forward from there we’ll be able to add [capabilities].” (source)

    The DHS wants to break free of the limitations of the old system with their new and “improved” system. HART will use multiple pieces of biometric data to increase identification accuracy.

    Today, when an official runs a person’s face, fingerprint or iris scans through IDENT’s massive database, the system doesn’t return a single result. Rather, it assembles a list of dozens of potential candidates with different levels of confidence, which a human analyst must then look through to make a final match. The system can only handle one modality at a time, so if agent is hypothetically trying to identify someone using two different datapoints, they need to assess two lists of candidates to find a single match. This isn’t a problem if the system identifies the same person as the most likely match for both fingerprint and face, for example, but because biometric identification is still an imperfect science, the results are rarely so clear cut.

    However, the HART platform can include multiple datapoints in a single query, meaning it will rank potential matches based on all the information that’s available. That will not only make it easier for agents to analyze potential matches, but it will also help the agency overcome data quality issues that often plague biometric scans, Nemeth said. If the face image is pristine but the fingerprint is fuzzy, for example, the system will give the higher-quality datapoint more weight.

    “We’re very hopeful that it will provide better identification surety than we can provide with any single modality today,” Nemeth said. And palm prints, scars, tattoos and other modalities are added in the years ahead, the system will be able to integrate those into its matching process. (source)

    HART will also use DNA.

    Remember a while back when we reported that DNA sites were teaming up with facial recognition software? Well, HART will take that unholy alliance even further.

    The phase-two solicitation also lists DNA-matching as a potential application of the HART system. While the department doesn’t currently analyze DNA, officials on Wednesday announced they would start adding DNA collected from hundreds of thousands of detained migrants to the FBI’s criminal database. During the interview, Nemeth said the agency is still working through the legal implications of storing and sharing such sensitive data. It’s also unclear whether DNA information would be housed in the HART system or a separate database, he said. (source)

    Nifty.

    The DHS is operating without any type of regulation.

    Currently, there’s no regulation or oversight of government agencies collecting and using this kind of data. Civil liberty activists and some lawmakers are alarmed by this, citing concerns about privacy and discrimination. This hasn’t slowed down the DHS one iota, however.

    Critics have taken particular issue with the government’s tangled web of information sharing agreements, which allow data to spread far beyond the borders of the agency that collected it. The Homeland Security Department currently shares its biometric data and capabilities with numerous groups, including but not limited to the Justice, Defense and State departments.

    In the years ahead, HART promises to strengthen those partnerships and allow others to flourish, according to Nemeth. While today the department limits other agencies’ access to IDENT to ensure they don’t consume too much of its limited computing power, HART will do away with those constraints. (source)

    Mana Azarmi, the policy counsel for the Freedom, Security and Technology Project at the Center for Democracy and Technology is one of those people voicing concern.

    A person might give information to a single agency thinking it would be used for one specific purpose, but depending on how that information is shared, they could potentially find themselves subjected to unforeseen negative consequences, Azarmi said in a conversation with Nextgov.

    “The government gets a lot of leeway to share information,” she said. “In this age of incredible data collection, I think we need to rethink some of the rules that are in place and some of the practices that we’ve allowed to flourish post-9/11. We may have overcorrected.” (source)

    You think?

    Many people voluntarily provide biometric data.

    Many folks provide biometric data without giving it a second thought. They cheerfully swab a cheek and send it into sites like Ancestry.com, providing not only their DNA, but matches to many relatives who never gave permission for their DNA to be in a database.

    Then there are cell phones. If you have a newer phone, it’s entirely possible that it has asked you to set up fingerprint login, facial recognition, and even voice recognition. It isn’t a stretch of the imagination to believe that those samples are shared with folks beyond the device in your hand. Add to this that your device is tracking you every place you go through a wide variety of seemingly innocuous apps, and you start to get the picture.

    You can’t opt-out.

    Back in 2013, I wrote an article called The Great American Dragnet.  At that time, facial recognition was something that sounded like science fiction or some kind of joke. Our drivers’ licenses were the first foray into creating a database but even in 2013, it far exceeded that.

    Another, even larger, database exists. The US State Department has a database with 230 million searchable images.  Anyone with a passport or an immigration visa may find themselves an unwilling participant in this database.   Here’s the breakdown of who has a photo database:

    • The State Department has about 15 million photos of passport or visa holders

    • The FBI has about15 million photos of people who have been arrested or convicted of crimes

    • The Department of Defense has about 6 million photos, mainly of Iraqis and Afghans

    • Various police agencies and states have at least 210 million driver’s license photos

    This invasion of privacy is just another facet of the surveillance state, and should be no surprise considering the information Edward Snowden just shared about the over-reaching tentacles of the NSA into all of our communications. We are filing our identities with the government and they can identify us at will, without any requirement for probable cause. (source)

    Some people don’t even seem to mind that their identities have been tagged and filed by the US government. And even those of us who do mind have no option. If you wish to drive a car or travel outside of the country or have any kind of government ID, like it or not, you’re in the database. Six years ago, I wrote:

    The authorities that use this technology claim that the purpose of it is to make us safer, by helping to prevent identity fraud and to identify criminals.  However, what freedom are we giving up for this “safety” cloaked in benevolence? We are giving up the freedom of having the most elemental form of privacy – that of being able to go about our daily business without being watched and identified.  And once you’re identified, this connects to all sorts of other personal information that has been compiled: your address, your driving and criminal records, and potentially, whatever else that has been neatly filed away at your friendly neighborhood fusion center.

    Think about it:  You’re walking the dog and you fail to scoop the poop – if there’s a surveillance camera in the area, it would be a simple matter, given the technology, for you to be identified. If you are attending a protest that might be considered “anti-government”, don’t expect to be anonymous.  A photo of the crowd could easily result in the identification of most of the participants.

    Are you purchasing ammo, preparedness items, or books about a controversial topic?  Paying cash won’t buy you much in the way of privacy – your purchase will most likely be captured on the CCTV camera at the checkout stand, making you easily identifiable to anyone who might wish to track these kinds of things.  What if a person with access to this technology uses it for personal, less than ethical reasons, like stalking an attractive women he saw on the street?  The potential for abuse is mind-boggling.

    If you can’t leave your house without being identified, do you have any real freedom left, or are you just a resident in a very large cage? (source)

    When I wrote that, it still seemed far-fetched but remotely possible, even to me. This was before we were really aware of anything like the social credit program in China or how crazy the censorship was going to become or how social media would change the very fabric of our society.

    Now, it’s here and it looks like there’s no stopping it.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 10/09/2019 – 23:45

  • 18-Year Old US Soldiers Now Entering Afghanistan 18 Years After War Began
    18-Year Old US Soldiers Now Entering Afghanistan 18 Years After War Began

    This week America’s longest war in Afghanistan turned eighteen, and so did its youngest solder. To mark the occasion, ABC News profiled the US occupation’s newest American member: “Pvt. Hunter Nines is about to join a war nearly as old as he is,” the report said.

    Reflecting on his first impending deployment with the Army Pvt. Nines said, “I didn’t have a lot of thoughts on Afghanistan in particular.” He was but 7 months when the war began with the arrival of US troops on Oct. 7, 2001 following the 9/11 attacks. “I honestly just had the notion of I wanted to serve, and wherever that is, that’s where I’ll go.”

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    Army Pvt. Hunter Nines, via ABC News.

    Over the span of the now eighteen-year long war, an estimated 775,000 American troops have served at least one tour in the historically war-racked central Asian country, in a region which everyone from Alexander the Great to Genghis Khan to the British Empire had trouble subduing, as all were ultimately unsuccessful.

    Very soon, the US will begin sending young service personnel who hadn’t even been born at the time of the start of Bush’s so-called ‘war on terror’. As this stunning line from the report emphasizes:  

    Department of Defense statistics reflect the increasing shift in demographics of service members such as Nines who were babies or not even yet born on Sept. 11, 2001, which led to what’s become America’s longest war.

    By the numbers, there are 15,364 active-duty enlisted Army members who are 18, and among these 1,052 of whom were born after the 9/11 attacks, reported ABC.

    And the much smaller (by total numbers), more elite branch, the Marine Corps, has 28,048 active-duty personnel aged 17 to 19.

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    It appears that Trump as Commander-In-Chief had this tragic reality of the country’s longest running quagmire in mind when he tweeted early this week, specifically in response to the unfolding crisis in Syria, that “it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home.”

    To be expected, the DC beltway blob had a collective conniption fit this week at the mere suggestion of a US troop exit from the Middle East.

    To see inside the warped worldview of ‘official Washington’ it’s enough to recall this 2014 Washington Post op-ed (no, not The Onion) which argued, “War may be the worst way imaginable to create peaceful societies but it is pretty much the only way.”

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    Assuming the ‘deep state’ continues to have its way, we can expect many more 18-year olds to be sent to distant lands the American military machine has been active in since before they were born. 


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 10/09/2019 – 23:25

  • National (In)Security: The Hypersonic Road To Hell
    National (In)Security: The Hypersonic Road To Hell

    Authored by Rajan Menon via TomDispatch.com,

    Why Arms Races Never End

    Hypersonic weapons close in on their targets at a minimum speed of Mach 5, five times the speed of sound or 3,836.4 miles an hour. They are among the latest entrants in an arms competition that has embroiled the United States for generations, first with the Soviet Union, today with China and Russia. Pentagon officials tout the potential of such weaponry and the largest arms manufacturers are totally gung-ho on the subject. No surprise there. They stand to make staggering sums from building them, especially given the chronic “cost overruns” of such defense contracts — $163 billion in the far-from-rare case of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

    Voices within the military-industrial complexthe Defense Department; mega-defense companies like Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, Boeing, and Raytheon; hawkish armchair strategists in Washington-based think tanks and universities; and legislators from places that depend on arms production for jobsinsist that these are must-have weapons. Their refrain: unless we build and deploy them soon we could suffer a devastating attack from Russia and China.  

    The opposition to this powerful ensemble’s doomsday logic is, as always, feeble.

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    The (Il)logic of Arms Races

    Hypersonic weapons are just the most recent manifestation of the urge to engage in an “arms race,” even if, as a sports metaphor, it couldn’t be more off base. Take, for instance, a bike or foot race. Each has a beginning, a stipulated distance, and an end, as well as a goal: crossing the finish line ahead of your rivals. In theory, an arms race should at least have a starting point, but in practice, it’s usually remarkably hard to pin down, making for interminable disputes about who really started us down this path. Historians, for instance, are still writing (and arguing) about the roots of the arms race that culminated in World War I. 

    The arms version of a sports race lacks a purpose (apart from the perpetuation of a competition fueled by an endless action-reaction sequence). The participants just keep at it, possessed by worst-case thinking, suspicion, and fear, sentiments sustained by bureaucracies whose budgets and political clout often depend on military spending, companies that rake in the big bucks selling the weaponry, and a priesthood of professional threat inflators who merchandise themselves as “security experts.”  

    While finish lines (other than the finishing of most life on this planet) are seldom in sight, arms control treaties can, at least, decelerate and muffle the intensity of arms races. But at least so far, they’ve never ended them and they themselves survive only as long as the signatories want them to. Recall President George W. Bush’s scuttling of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the Trump administration’s exit from the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August. Similarly, the New START accord, which covered long-range nuclear weapons and was signed by Russia and the United States in 2010, will be up for renewal in 2021 and its future, should Donald Trump be reelected, is uncertain at best. Apart from the fragility built into such treaties, new vistas for arms competition inevitably emerge — or, more precisely, are created. Hypersonic weapons are just the latest example.

    Arms races, though waged in the name of national security, invariably create yet more insecurity. Imagine two adversaries neither of whom knows what new weapon the other will field. So both just keep building new ones. That gets expensive. And such spending only increases the number of threats. Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, U.S. military spending has consistently and substantially exceeded China’s and Russia’s combined. But can you name a government that imagines more threats on more fronts than ours? This endless enumeration of new vulnerabilities isn’t a form of paranoia. It’s meant to keep arms races humming and the money flowing into military (and military-industrial) coffers.

    One-Dimensional National Security

    Such arms races come from the narrow, militarized definition of “national security” that prevails inside the defense and intelligence establishment, as well as in think tanks, universities, and the most influential mass media. Their underlying assumptions are rarely challenged, which only adds to their power. We’re told that we must produce a particular weapon (price tag be damned!), because if we don’t, the enemy will and that will imperil us all.  

    Such a view of security is by now so deeply entrenched in Washington — shared by Republicans and Democrats alike — that alternatives are invariably derided as naïve or quixotic. As it happens, both of those adjectives would be more appropriate descriptors for the predominant national security paradigm, detached as it is from what really makes most Americans feel insecure.

    Consider a few examples.

    Unlike in the first three decades after World War II, since 1979 the average U.S. hourly wage, adjusted for inflation, has increased by a pitiful amount, despite substantial increases in worker productivity. Unsurprisingly, those on the higher rungs of the wage ladder (to say nothing of those at the top) have made most of the gains, creating a sharp increase in wage inequality. (If you consider net total household wealth rather than income alone, the share of the top 1% increased from 30% to 39% between 1989 and 2016, while that of the bottom 90% dropped from 33% to 23%.) 

    Because of sluggish wage growth many workers find it hard to land jobs that pay enough to cover basic life expenses even when, as now, unemployment is low (3.6% this year compared to 8% in 2013). Meanwhile, millions earning low wages, particularly single mothers who want to work, struggle to find affordable childcare — not surprising considering that in 10 states and the District of Columbia the annual cost of such care exceeded $10,000 last year; and that, in 28 states, childcare centers charged more than the cost of tuition and fees at four-year public colleges.  

    Workers trapped in low-wage jobs are also hard-pressed to cover unanticipated expenses. In 2018, the “median household” banked only $11,700, and households with incomes in the bottom 20% had, on average, only $8,790 in savings; 29% of them, $1,000 or less. (For the wealthiest 1% of households, the median figure was $2.5 million.) Forty-four percent of American families would be unable to cover emergency-related expenses in excess of $400 without borrowing money or selling some of their belongings.

    That, in turn, means many Americans can’t adequately cover periods of extended unemployment or illness, even when unemployment benefits are added in. Then there’s the burden of medical bills. The percentage of uninsured adults has risen from 10.9% to 13.7% since 2016 and often your medical insurance is tied to your job — lose it and you lose your coverage — not to speak of the high deductibles imposed by many medical insurance policies. (Out-of-pocket medical expenses have, in fact, increased fourfold since 2007 and now average $1,300 a year.)

    Or, speaking of insecurity, consider the epidemic in opioid-related fatalities (400,000 people since 1999), or suicides (47,173 in 2017 alone), or murders involving firearms (14,542 in that same year). Child poverty? The U.S. rate was higher than that of 32 of the 36 other economically developed countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

    Now ask yourself this: how often do you hear our politicians or pundits use a definition of “national security” that includes any of these daily forms of American insecurity? Admittedly, progressive politicians do speak about the economic pressures millions of Americans face, but never as part of a discussion of national security.

    Politicians who portray themselves as “budget hawks” flaunt the label, but their outrage over “irresponsible” or “wasteful” spending seldom extends to a national security budget that currently exceeds $1 trillion. Hawks claim that the country must spend as much as it does because it has a worldwide military presence and a plethora of defense commitments. That presumes, however, that both are essential for American security when sensible and less extravagant alternatives are on offer.  

    In that context, let’s return to the “race” for hypersonic weapons.

    Faster Than a Speeding Bullet

    Although the foundation for today’s hypersonic weaponry was laid decades ago, the pace of progress has been slow because of daunting technical challenges. Developing materials like composite ceramics capable of withstanding the intense heat to which such weapons will be exposed during flight leads the list. In recent years, though, countries have stepped up their games hoping to deploy hypersonic armaments rapidly, something Russia has already begun to do.

    China, Russia, and the United States lead the hypersonic arms race, but others — including BritainFranceGermanyIndia, and Japan — have joined in (and more undoubtedly will do so). Each has its own list of dire scenarios against which hypersonic weapons will supposedly protect them and military missions for which they see such armaments as ideal. In other words, a new round in an arms race aimed at Armageddon is already well underway.

    There are two variants of hypersonic weapons, which can both be equipped with conventional or nuclear warheads and can also demolish their targets through sheer speed and force of impact, or kinetic energy. “Boost-glide vehicles” (HGVs) are lofted skyward on ballistic missiles or aircraft. Separated from their transporter, they then hurtle through the atmosphere, pulled toward their target by gravity, while picking up momentum along the way. Unlike ballistic missiles, which generally fly most of the way in a parabolic trajectory — think of an inverted U — ranging in altitude from nearly 400 to nearly 750 miles high, HGVs stay low, maxing out about 62 miles up. The combination of their hypersonic speed and lower altitude shortens the journey, while theoretically flummoxing radars and defenses designed to track and intercept ballistic missile warheads (which means another kind of arms race still to come). 

    By contrast, hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs) resemble pilotless aircraft, propelled from start to finish by an on-board engine. They are, however, lighter than standard cruise missiles because they use “scramjet” technology.  Rather than carrying liquid oxygen tanks, the missile “breathes” in outside air that passes through it at supersonic speed, its oxygen combining with the missile’s hydrogen fuel. The resulting combustion generates extreme heat, propelling the missile toward its target. HCMs fly even lower than HGVs, below 100,000 feet, which makes identifying and destroying them harder yet. 

    Weapons are categorized as hypersonic when they can reach a speed of at least Mach 5, but versions that travel much faster are in the works. A Chinese HGV, launched by the Dong Feng (East Wind) DF-ZF ballistic missile, reportedly registered a speed of up to Mach 10 during tests, which began in 2014. Russia’s Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, or “Dagger,” launched from a bomber or interceptor, can reportedly also reach a speed of Mach 10. Lockheed Martin’s AGM-183A Advanced Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), an HGV that was first test-launched from a B-52 bomber this year, can apparently reach the staggering speed of Mach 20.

    And yet it’s not just the speed and flight trajectory of hypersonic weapons that will make them so hard to track and intercept. They can also maneuver as they race toward their targets. Unsurprisingly, efforts to develop defenses against them, using low-orbit sensorsmicrowave technology, and “directed energy” have already begun. The Trump administration’s plans for a new Space Force that will put sensors and interceptors into space cite the threat of hypersonic missiles. Even so, critics have slammed the initiative for being poorly funded.

    Putting aside the technical complexities of building defenses against hypersonic weapons, the American decision to withdraw from the ABM Treaty and develop missile-defense systems influenced Russia’s decision to develop hypersonic weapons capable of penetrating such defenses. These are meant to ensure that Russia’s nuclear forces will continue to serve as a credible deterrent against a nuclear first strike on that country.

    The Trio Takes the Lead

    China, Russia, and the United States are, of course, leading the hypersonic race to hell. China tested a medium-range new missile, the DF-17 in late 2017, and used an HGV specifically designed to be launched by it. The following year, that country tested its rocket-launched Xing Kong-2 (Starry Sky-2), a “wave rider,” which gains momentum by surfing the shockwaves it produces. In addition to its Kinzhal, Russia successfully tested the Avangard HGV in 2018. The SS-19 ballistic missile that launched it will eventually be replaced by the R-28 Samrat. Its hypersonic cruise missile, the Tsirkon, designed to be launched from a ship or submarine, has also been tested several times since 2015. Russia’s hypersonic program has had its failures — so has ours — but there’s no doubting Moscow’s seriousness about pursuing such weaponry.

    Though it’s common to read that both Russia and China are significantly ahead in this arms race, the United States has been no laggard. It’s been interested in such weaponry — specifically HGVs — since the early years of this century. The Air Force awarded Boeing and Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne a contract to develop the hypersonic X-51A WaveRider scramjet in 2004. Its first flight test — which failed (creating something of a pattern) — took place in 2010.

    Today, the Army, Navy, and Air Force are moving ahead with major hypersonic weapons programs. For instance, the Air Force test-launched its ARRW from a B-52 bomber as part of its Hypersonic Conventional Strike Weapon (HCSWthis June; the Navy tested an HGV in 2017 to further its Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) initiative; and the Army tested its own version of such a weapon in 2011 and 2014 to move its Advanced Hypersonic Weapon (AHW) program forward. The depth of the Pentagon’s commitment to hypersonic weapons became evident in 2018 when it decided to combine the Navy’s CPS, the Air Force’s HCSW, and the Army’s AHW to advance the Conventional Prompt Global Strike Program (CPGS), which seeks to build the capability to hit targets worldwide in under 60 minutes.

    That’s not all. The Center for Public Integrity’s R. Jeffrey Smith reports that Congress passed a bill last year requiring the United States to have operational hypersonic weapons by late 2022. President’s Trump’s 2020 Pentagon budget request included $2.6 billion to support their development. Smith expects the annual investment to reach $5 billion by the mid-2020s.

    That will certainly happen if officials like Michael Griffin, the Pentagon’s undersecretary for research and engineering, have their way. Speaking at the McAleese and Credit Suisse Defense Programs conference in March 2018, he listed hypersonic weapons as his “highest technical priority,” adding, “I’m sorry for everybody out there who champions some other high priority… But there has to be a first and hypersonics is my first.” The big defense contractors share his enthusiasm. No wonder last December the National Defense Industrial Association, an outfit that lobbies for defense contractors, played host to Griffin and Patrick Shanahan (then the deputy secretary of defense), for the initial meeting of what it called the “Hypersonic Community of Influence.”

    Cassandra Or Pollyanna?

    We are, in other words, in a familiar place. Advances in technology have prepared the ground for a new phase of the arms race. Driving it, once again, is fear among the leading powers that their rivals will gain an advantage, this time in hypersonic weapons. What then? In a crisis, a state that gained such an advantage might, they warn, attack an adversary’s nuclear forces, military bases, airfields, warships, missile defenses, and command-and-control networks from great distances with stunning speed.

    Such nightmarish scenario-building could simply be dismissed as wild-eyed speculation, but the more states think about, plan, and build weaponry along these lines, the greater the danger that a crisis could spiral into a hypersonic war once such weaponry was widely deployed. Imagine a crisis in the South China Sea in which the United States and China both have functional hypersonic weapons: China sees them as a means of blocking advancing American forces; the United States, as a means to destroy the very hypersonic arms China could use to achieve that objective. Both know this, so the decision of one or the other to fire first could come all too easily. Or, now that the INF Treaty has died, imagine a crisis in Europe involving the United States and Russia after both sides have deployed numerous intermediate-range hypersonic cruise missiles on the continent. 

    Some wonks say, in effect, Relax, hi-tech defenses against hypersonic weapons will be built, so crises like these won’t spin out of control. They seem to forget that defensive military innovations inevitably lead to offensive ones designed to negate them. Hypersonic weapons won’t prove to be the exception.

    So, in a world of national (in)security, the new arms race is on. Buckle up.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 10/09/2019 – 23:05

    Tags

  • Inside Hunter Biden's Dealings With Shadowy Foreign Firms
    Inside Hunter Biden’s Dealings With Shadowy Foreign Firms

    Hunter Biden is the ultimate fail-son, or black sheep.

    For those who are unfamiliar with the term, it has emerged in recent years to describe the spoiled, sloppy and clumsily power-hungry offspring of powerful individuals. Hunter Biden is more infamous for his often drug-fueled antics, and the brief and embarrassingly public romance he shared with his deceased brother’s widow, than he is for being a successful businessman. But now his business career has been exposed for what it truly is: Foreign players hoping to use the younger Biden as a backdoor connection to the White House, and the American political elite.

    Often, Biden dropped hints about how these connections could be useful, though there’s not much of a record of him actually using his connections (that is, actually being useful) on his employer’s behalf (which doesn’t mean it didn’t happen).

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    According to the FT, Biden’s business interests “often show up in unexpected places.” While Democrats obviously prefer to focus on their impeachment investigation, there’s no denying that Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine, China and elsewhere clearly raise questions about potential conflicts that existed while his father was in office. Joe Biden has denied wrongdoing, but questions linger over his role in the ouster of a top Ukrainian prosecutor, which some have suggested was done to help protect Hunter.

    When Hunter joined the Navy Reserves in May 2013, he required several waivers (at 42, he was above the age of enlistment, and there was an unspecified ‘drug-related’ incident that also would have disqualified him).

    Despite his apparent eagerness to join, Biden was discharged from the Navy the following year after testing positive for cocaine. Soon after, his more successful older brother, Beau, passed away, and his wife Kathleen filed for divorce, citing Hunter’s “spending extravagantly on his own interests including drugs, alcohol, prostitutes, strip clubs and gifts for women with whom he has sexual relations.”

    Next, he started dating his brother’s widow.

    But in between trips to rehab and legendary drug benders. In 2016, shortly after he started dating Hallie Biden, Beau’s widow, Hunter made plans to stay at a detox center in Arizona. But he somehow got sidetracked during a stopover in Los Angeles, and ended up missing the next wing of his flight. Instead, he traveled to Skid Row, where he was reportedly held up at gun point, but nevertheless apparently succeeded in buying and using crack, causing him to return several times over the following days. Eventually, Hunter Biden took a Hertz rental car to his treatment center in Arizona, but workers at the Hertz office called the police after finding a crack pipe and baggie of crack, along with Biden’s license and a badge from Beau’s time as Delaware AG.

    Prosecutors declined to pursue the case, claiming a lack of evidence, but it definitely wasn’t a good look for Hunter. More recently, Hunter has been in the headlines for his whirlwind marriage to a South African Instagram model, and for a paternity suit brought by a woman claiming Hunter is the father of her newborn son. 

    Of course, none of these transgressions have stopped Biden from earning millions of dollars off his family name and connections. In Wednesday’s issue, the FT published a breakdown of Biden’s foreign business interests.

    Burisma Holdings:

    Role: Board member (2014-2019)

    Pay: $50,000 a month.

    Burisma, Ukraine’s leading privately owned natural gas producer, obtained some of its most prized production assets while its founder Mykola Zlochevsky headed a ministry that doled out gas licences under the kleptocratic administration of ex-president Viktor Yanukovich. After Mr Yanukovich fled to Russia in 2014, investigators started probing the company.

    That year Burisma appointed prominent westerners to its board, including Hunter Biden, who reportedly earned $50,000 per month for this role. Mr Trump’s calls for his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Burisma over links to Joe Biden, his potential Democratic rival in next year’s presidential election, triggered the impeachment probe.

    In tweets and in a July phone call with Mr Zelensky, Mr Trump and Rudy Giuliani, his personal lawyer, alleged that Joe Biden protected Burisma and his son’s interests while he was vice-president. Ukraine’s western backers deny this narrative.

    Paradigm Companies

    Role: investor and employee

    Pay: $1.2 million salary

    In 2006, Hunter Biden acquired a stake in Paradigm, a hedge fund group, following a failed attempt to buy the entire company through LBB, a limited liability partnership set up with his uncle James Biden. Hunter Biden recently told the New Yorker that, while the failed deal sounded “super attractive”, it fell apart after he and his uncle learned that the company was worth less than they had thought.

    Both James and Hunter Biden faced a lawsuit from Anthony Lotito Jr, a former business partner, who accused them of defrauding him over the failed deal. The Bidens countersued Mr Lotito, accusing him of hiding company debts and falsely claiming he held securities licences. An independent audit of the fund conducted in 2008 found accounting problems at the firm including “failure to timely prepare financial statements” and “failure to reconcile Investment Advisors reimbursement of fund expenses”.

    Paradigm itself was founded by James Park in 1991, the son-in-law of one of the founder’s of the Korean Unification Church, which some have called a cult. In 2009, a fund run by Paradigm became associated with Allen Stanford, a Texas financier, who was later convicted of running an $8bn Ponzi scheme. Stanford’s company was responsible for marketing one of Paradigm’s funds of hedge funds, and also invested millions of dollars in it. At the time, a lawyer representing Paradigm said neither Hunter nor James Biden had ever met Stanford.

    The Bidens filed for voluntary liquidation of the company in 2010.

    Seneca Global Advisors

    Role: Founder, consultant

    Pay: n/a

    Hunter Biden launched his consultancy in September 2008, weeks after his father Joe Biden had been announced as Barack Obama’s running mate on the Democratic presidential ticket. Mr Obama was elected president in November 2008, with Joe Biden as his vice-president.

    The consultancy pitched itself as a firm that could help small and midsized companies expand across the US and into foreign markets. Clients included Achaogen, a pharmaceutical company focused on anti-bacterial treatments that filed for bankruptcy in April 2019, and GreatPoint Energy, an energy technology start-up.

    In 2012, GreatPoint received a $420m investment from China Wanxiang Holdings, an industrial conglomerate. It was the largest venture capital investment into the US that year. It is unclear if Hunter Biden was directly involved in securing this investment.

    Rosemont Seneca Partners

    Role: Co-founder, consultant

    Pay: n/a

    Hunter Biden co-founded Rosemont Seneca Partners in 2009 with Christopher Heinz, stepson of John Kerry, the former secretary of state, and scion of the Heinz processed food fortune, and Devon Archer, a financier and former Abercrombie & Fitch model who attended Yale with Mr Heinz.

    In 2014, Rosemont Seneca was involved in an attempted $1.5bn fundraise for a new fund launched by Harvest Fund Management and Bohai Industrial Group, the Chinese asset manager, according to a Wall Street Journal report at the time. The Bank of China International Holdings was one of the biggest stakeholders in Bohai at the time.

    Mr Archer first connected with Mykola Zlochevsky, co-founder of the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, in 2014 when he travelled there to pitch a Rosemont-linked real estate fund that he managed. Mr Archer joined Burisma’s board in 2014. Hunter joined soon after.

    BHR Partners

    Role: Director, consultant, 2013-today

    Pay: n/a

    BHR Partners, of which Hunter remains a director, is a private investment fund backed by some of China’s largest state banks, local government and the national pension fund.

    At its inception in 2014, BHR listed Rosemont Seneca Thornton LLC, an investment firm co-founded by Hunter Biden, as a shareholder that owned 30% of the fund.

    A year later, the two partners in RST, a consortium of Rosemont Seneca and Thornton Group, a Massachusetts-based firm with local political ties, split their shares in BHR. Rosemont Seneca took 20% and Thornton 10%. Rosemont Seneca unloaded its BHR stakes in 2017, while Thornton kept its shares.

    BHR is known for being an early investor in some of the fastest-growing technology start-ups, including Didi Chuxing, the digital transport group. It has also invested in Megvii, a facial recognition start-up whose technology has been used in Chinese government surveillance of Uighur populations in China’s western provinces.

    Li Xiangsheng, CEO of BHR, told local media that the fund’s strong government background would allow it to make super-big investments, saying the fund could take loans from its shareholders such as China Development Bank and Bank of China to complete transactions.

    Hunter Biden’s investment in the fund totalled $420,000, according to one of his lawyers, implying the fund’s total value sits at $4.2m. The New Yorker reported in July that Hunter and his partners said they had not yet received a payment from BHR.

    BHR Portfolio Companies (per FT):

    Didi Chuxing:

    Cashed out. China’s largest ride-hailing service. BHR invested in Didi in 2015 and exited two years later.

    Megvii

    Current. Leading facial recognition company whose technology was linked to Beijing’s mass surveillance of Uighurs in Xinjiang. BHR was an investor in Megvii’s Series C funding round in 2017.

    Sinopec Petroleum Sales

    Current. Retail unit of one of world’s largest oil refiners. Sinopec participated in China’s mixed ownership reform of the state sector by selling shares in its retail business in 2014 to an investor group that includes BHR. The fund paid Rmb6bn for a 1.7% stake.

    Yancoal Australia

    Current. Australian subsidiary of China’s third-largest coal producer. BHR teamed up with two Chinese banks in 2016 to purchase a nine-year bond issued by Yancoal Australia and valued at $950m.

    CGN Power Group

    Current. Major nuclear power company that was placed under US export blacklist in August over accusations of stealing US technology for military use. BHR was a cornerstone investor in CGN’s Hong Kong IPO in 2014.

    Tuniu

    Current. Major online travel agency. BHR invested in Tuniu in 2016.

    Contemporary Amperex Technology

    Current. World’s largest lithium-ion battery maker. BHR invested Rmb100m in CAT in 2015 and cashed out for Rmb197m three years later.

    3SBio

    Current. Leading Chinese biopharmaceutical firm in which BHR has invested.

    Tenke Copper Mine

    Cashed out. BHR paid $1.1bn for a 24% stake in DRC’s Tenke copper mine, one of the world’s largest, from Canada-based Lundin Mining. BHR acted as middleman in the deal, as it later sold its stake to China Molybdenum, a state-backed miner, allowing the latter to gain full control of Tenke.

    Henniges Automotive

    Current. In 2015, BHR teamed up with Chinese state-owned Avic Auto to acquire Michigan-based Henniges Automotive, which makes auto components. The deal, valued at $600m, gave BHR a 49% stake in Henniges. A research institute under Avic Auto’s parent company, China’s largest defence contractor, was added to the US export blacklist in 2014.

    Gemini-Rosemont Realty

    Current. In 2015, Gemini Investments Limited, the investment arm of China’s state-owned Sino-Ocean Land Holdings, purchased a 75 per cent stake in Rosemont Realty, Devon Archer’s sister company of Rosemont Seneca, where Hunter Biden was a partner. The deal resulted in a joint venture — Gemini-Rosemont Realty that owns 135 buildings in 22 US states.

    Jilin Zhishi Dairy Co   

    Current. BHR-invested dairy product maker based in northeastern China.

    Chengdu Xijiao Rail Transportation Technology Co   

    Current. Leading railway technology firm in which BHR has a 10% stake.

    Source: Financial Times


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 10/09/2019 – 22:45

  • Secretary Of Defense, Incorporated
    Secretary Of Defense, Incorporated

    Authored by Danny Sjursen via TruthDig.com,

    The man is so beautifully bland. In fact, I’d wager that only a tiny segment of Americans could name the current Secretary of Defense—and far fewer could pick him out of a lineup. Perhaps that’s the point. President Trump, a celebrity ham, has tired of sharing the stage with big-name advisers such as Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and national security adviser John Bolton. So they’re both gone. In their place, Trump has installed faceless bureaucrats to run the most powerful national security state in human history. And the rest of us hardly notice.

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    Trump’s appointment of Mark Esper as head of the largest and most active Cabinet department, and the new Defense Secretary’s near unanimous approval by the U.S. Senate, is no less of a scandal than Trump’s apparent efforts to seek foreign interference in the 2020 elections. Only it isn’t.

    Still, the nomination of Esper, a recent lobbyist for the defense contracting corporation Raytheon, ranks as one of the most egregious illustrations of the “revolving door” between lobbyists and the Defense Department. It’s crony capitalism in fatigues, and while nothing new, a clear indication that things have only worsened under our reality-show-mogul-president.

    Of course, seen through the rose-colored glasses of American empire, Esper is highly qualified to head the Defense Department. He’s a West Point graduate, former Army infantry officer, recipient of a master’s degree in public administration from Harvard and a doctorate in public policy from George Washington University, and has past experience working in the Pentagon.

    If one digs further, however, Esper is wildly problematic—loaded with conflicts of interest, a veteran of the (should be) discredited neoconservative Bush-era DOD, and little more than a corporate “company man.” He didn’t just work for Raytheon, he lobbied on the defense contractor’s behalf only recently. Under rather sharp questioning by Sen. Elizabeth Warren during his confirmation hearings, Esper refused to recuse himself from participating in government business involving Raytheon. In typically lifeless language, Esper replied that “On the advice of my ethics folks at the Pentagon, the career professionals: No, their recommendation is not to.” How’s that for accepting responsibility? No matter, he was swiftly and quietly confirmed by a vote of 90-8 in the Senate.

    Expect another banner year for Raytheon. It’s already the third-largest U.S. defense contractor, and produces, among other tools of destruction, Paveway precision-guided missiles—the very weapons that Congress recently sought to stop shipping to Saudi Arabia due to (rather tardy) concerns about the heads of Yemeni civilians upon which they’re dropped.

    I predict more deals and more taxpayer billions for Raytheon with Esper at the Defense helm. Not that the company has done poorly during the Trump years. In 2018, Raytheon CEO Thomas Kennedy candidly quipped that “It’s the best time that we’ve ever seen for the defense industry.” Not for indebted taxpayers, bombed-out Middle Easterners or U.S. soldiers still dying in endless wars, it’s not. But sure, it truly is the best of times for what prominent American leaders—once upon a time—labeled the “merchants of death.”

    Conflicts of interest, sliding seamlessly between defense contracting boards and the Pentagon, and securing post-government largesse on corporate boards, that’s an old story indeed. Looking back to 2001, most Defense Secretaries have troublesome private sector connections. Donald Rumsfeld entered the Pentagon after a 24-year business career; Robert Gates was on the board of directors of Fidelity Investments and the Parker Drilling Company; Chuck Hagel served on the boards of Chevron and Deutsche Bank; Ash Carter—an exception—was mostly an academic and a bureaucratic wonk, but still consulted for Goldman Sachs. All made millions.

    That covers the Bush and Obama years. What we’ve seen in the Trump administration, is, however, something far more brazen. His three Secretaries of Defense (one of whom, Patrick Shanahan, was only acting head) have been unapologetically ensconced in the world of defense contracting and corporate lobbying.

    “Saint” Jim Mattis had, while still a general, encouraged the military to buy the blood test products of Theranos, then dropped the service and joined its corporate board. But Theranos’ products did not work, the deal described by the Securities and Exchange Commission as an “elaborate, years-long fraud.” Mattis also served, both before and after his Pentagon stint, on the board of General Dynamics, the nation’s fifth largest defense contractor. Nonetheless, Mattis easily slid through his confirmation and was praised by all types of mainstream media as the administration’s “adult in the room.”

    After Mattis resigned, he being unable to countenance even Trump’s hints at modest withdrawal from the wars in Syria and Afghanistan, Patrick Shanahan stepped in as interim defense chief. Unlike his predecessor, Shanahan didn’t emerge from the military, but rather from yet another defense contractor, Boeing, for which he’s worked some 30 years. Trump thought that was dandy and nominated him to officially replace Mattis, but Shanahan decided to withdraw due to alleged personal scandals. Enter Mark Esper, Raytheon lobbyist extraordinaire.

    Esper’s in good company in Washington’s military-industrial swamp. Recent reports by the Project on Government Oversight (POGO)—a vital organization that hardly any American has heard of—identified “645 instances in the past 10 years in which a retired senior official, member of Congress or senior legislative staff member became employed as a registered lobbyist, board member or business executive at a major government contractor.” POGO also noted that “those walking through the revolving door included 25 generals, nine admirals, 43 lieutenant generals and 23 vice admirals.”

    All of which begs some questions and provides some disturbing answers. Perhaps we ought to ditch the myth that the Defense Secretary simply heads the Pentagon, and admit that Esper is really the emperor of a far grander military-industrial complex that includes a veritable army of K-Street lobbyists and venal arms dealers. Maybe it’s time to concede that unelected national security czars, and not a stalemated bought-and-sold Congress, run national defense and set the gigantic Pentagon budget. Perhaps we should confess to ourselves that the nation’s vaunted soldiers are little more than political pawns in a game that’s far bigger, far more Kafkaesque, than those troopers could begin to fathom. And, finally, let’s admit one last thing: Few of us care.

    *  *  *

    Danny Sjursen is a retired U.S. Army Major and regular contributor to Truthdig. His work has also appeared in Harper’s, The LA Times, The Nation, Tom Dispatch, The Huffington Post and The Hill. He served combat tours with reconnaissance units in Iraq and Afghanistan and later taught history at his alma mater, West Point. He is the author of a memoir and critical analysis of the Iraq War, “Ghostriders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge.” He co-hosts the progressive veterans’ podcast “Fortress on a Hill.” Follow him on Twitter at @SkepticalVet.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 10/09/2019 – 22:25

    Tags

  • People Who Work From Home Earn More Money, New Study Shows
    People Who Work From Home Earn More Money, New Study Shows

    According to a new Census Bureau report, people who work from home were the highest earning workers in the “median earnings by means of transportation to work” category. Bloomberg highlighted this in a new report that also noted that in 2018, people who took public transportation to work had higher median earnings than those who didn’t.

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    From the public transportation angle, the statistics are mostly a reflection of where buses, subways and commuter trains are located. Places like New York, Chicago and San Francisco accounted for a large portion of Americans who took public transportation to work, and pay is notably higher in those areas.

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    People who work from home gain their income advantage from the kind of work that can be done remotely. For instance, white-collar work is much more likely to be done from home than blue-collar work. Perhaps this is a reason why, in 2010, those who worked from home made 11% less than those who drove to work, but in 2018, they made 5% more.

    Over the same period of time, the number of people who reported working at home has risen to 8.3 million from 5.9 million. The rise began in the early 2000’s, as broadband connections at home made it easier for people to accomplish work tasks while not in the office.

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    As Bloomberg notes, the survey can also leave some people out:

    The annual American Community Survey from which the current data 1 are derived asks people how they usually got to work the previous week. This misses out on lots of people who didn’t happen to work from home that particular week but do sometimes. A 2016 Gallup survey found that 43% of American employees worked remotely at least occasionally. The European Union’s Eurostat tracks whether people work at home “usually” or “sometimes,” and over the past decade the former group hasn’t grown as a share of the EU workforce but the latter has.

    But in general, the trend toward working at home seems to be a good one. Studies have shown that employees who are given the opportunity to work from home are more productive and happier with their jobs. They can also save time and money by not commuting.

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    People who work at home also get the advantage of being able to live in scenic places, like Boulder, Colorado or the Catskills.

    And another portion of the study shows that people who work at home either make a significant sum of money, or not very much at all. This could be due to some people working at home just as part-timers looking to supplement household income. Others, who make $75,000 or more, are likely white-collar executives or work in technology. Remote work websites like Upwork are also becoming popular for people to take on full-time workloads from remote locations.

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    Finally, the study showed that working at home seems to still predominantly be the most popular with white people.

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    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 10/09/2019 – 22:05

  • Duelling US-China Trade Headlines Spark Chaotic Volatility In Futures
    Duelling US-China Trade Headlines Spark Chaotic Volatility In Futures

    Update: Good luck trading this…

    Dow futures have swung up and down 300-plus points four times…

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    And Yuan is even more chaotic…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    *  *  *

    And to think how blissfully stocks surged today on optimism that China was willing to pursue a partial deal…

    Moments after US equity futures reopened for trading, they plunged after the SCMP reported that deputy-level trade talks between the US and China aimed at laying the groundwork for high-level negotiations later this week “failed to yield any progress on critical issues, according to two sources with knowledge of the meetings.”

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    According to the report, the deputy-level negotiators, led on the Chinese side by vice-minister for finance Liao Min, spent the time focusing on only two areas: agricultural purchases and intellectual property protection. This apparently was not enough.

    As other newswire reported earlier, during the discussions on Monday and Tuesday in Washington, the Chinese refused to talk about forced technology transfers, one source said, which is a core US grievance regarding China’s economic policies.

    Speaking on condition of anonymity, the person said that talks had also skirted the issue of state subsidies, which the Trump administration says give Chinese companies an unfair advantage over international competitors.

    “They have made no progress,” said another source familiar with the talks, adding that the Chinese side had not made headway in persuading US negotiators to consider a freeze on tariff increases, a main priority for Beijing.

    And confirming that the week’s entire negotiation was a fiasco from the start, the SCMP reports that the Chinese delegation is planning to leave Washington on Thursday – one day early – and after just one day of principal-level talks, the SCMP source noted. Beijing’s negotiating team, headed by Vice-Premier Liu He, had previously planned to leave Washington late on Friday, allowing for up to two full days of talks.

    Liu arrived in the US capital on Tuesday afternoon amid one of the tensest weeks for bilateral relations since the trade war began in July 2018.

    It appears that this week’s NBA fiasco may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back:

    Fallout from an NBA team general manager’s message of support for Hong Kong protesters has roiled public opinion on both sides. And earlier this week Washington announced sanctions against Chinese government entities, officials and companies it considers implicated in Beijing’s policies targeting largely Muslim ethnic minority groups in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region.

    The Chinese government shot back, calling for an immediate reversal in the administration’s actions.

    To be sure, Wednesday’s announcement that the US would block visa of various Chinese officials did not help.

    In any case, with any hopes of even a modest, or mini, trade deal now seemingly collapsed, so have futures, which are puking after hours… (Dow futures -320 points)

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    … as is the Yuan.

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    Source: Bloomberg

    And gold is spiking…

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    If confirmed, expect much more pain for a market which some have said has priced in the US-China trade deal no less than three times already.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 10/09/2019 – 21:50

    Tags

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Today’s News 9th October 2019

  • Refugee Explosion "Even Greater" Than 2015 To Hit Europe, German Minister Warns
    Refugee Explosion “Even Greater” Than 2015 To Hit Europe, German Minister Warns

    The German government is warning that a number of indicators suggest Europe could be on the brink of witnessing a new refugee crisis explode on its borders. 

    Germany’s Interior Minister Horst Seehofer said early this week that refugees and migrants are set to flood Europe on a scale even bigger that the peak of the 2015 crisis“We must do more to help our European partners with controls on the EU external borders. We have left them alone for too long,” he told Germany’s Bild am Sonntag newspaper after returning from a visit to Greece and Turkey, where he inspected the renewed refugee crisis first hand. 

    “If we do not do that we will once again face a refugee wave like in 2015 or maybe even greater,” Seehofer warned  ominously. 

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    Refugees arriving at the the Greek Island of Lesbos in 2015. Image source: Antonio Masiello via “6 Degrees”

    Seehofer further said that if the EU doesn’t unite to find “strength to solve this problem problem” it faces total “loss of control” if and when the next major crisis hits. 

    At the height of the crisis three years ago, which was driven by the vastly destabilizing wars in Syria and Libya, and by the turmoil left in the wake of the Islamic State caliphate in western Iraq, there were near weekly mass drownings and accidents involving migrants attempting to traverse the Mediterranean, as well as fires and unrest at makeshift refugee camps in France and Greece. It further created turmoil in the domestic politics of multiple EU countries, with a number of right-wing populist figures and parties coming to power on anti-illegal immigration platforms. 

    And now, with Turkey on the brink of a major military incursion into northeast Syria, the Middle East is about to witness a major new conflagration resulting in potentially millions of new refugees being pushed out of the Turkey-Syria border region

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    Germany’s Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, left, via Deutsche Welle

    Coupled with that, Turkey’s President Erdogan recently threatened to release one million refugees on Europe if he can’t have his so-called ‘safe zone’ which is to reach some 30km deep (19 miles) inside Syrian territory. He threatened early last month: We will be forced to open the gates. We cannot be forced to handle the burden alone,” while demanding that European countries give political support to the controversial plan that would end in annexing UN member Syria’s sovereign territory. 

    It was the 2015 crisis that saw precisely around a million refugees and migrants flood Europe, crossing by land through the Balkans, as well as making the more dangerous Mediterranean route. 

    It appears Interior Minister Seehofer is convinced Erdogan is not bluffing, and is warning Europe to be prepared for the chaos to come. Indeed recent figures published by the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), reveal that numbers of migrants crossing by sea from Turkey to Greece are shooting up over the past nine months, compared to the year prior. 

    Seehofer said of Turkey’s current situation, which is now openly declaring it stands ready to “correct the demographics” of northern Syria by forcibly removing its Kurdish inhabitants, and then move some 2 million Arab Syrian refugees into the ‘safe zone’, that “it is clear that we cannot manage the future with the resources of the past.” This in reference to a prior EU deal with Ankara to take back refugees from Greece for €6 billion in aid. 

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    The main migrant routes to Europe at the opening of 2015 which saw a million flood Europe in a short span, something which some are warning is set to be repeated in the coming year. 

    One thing is for certain, should “all out war” — as the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have promised — be the result of the expected imminent Turkish invasion of Syria, there will be a new refugee explosion out of northern Syria and possibly Iraq, given Iraq’s Kurdistan region is precisely where many Syrian Kurdish as well as Christian civilians fleeing Turkish tanks would end up. 

    This is in addition to a renewed grinding multi-party civil war in Libya unfolding as Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s forces continue their push to wrest the capital of Tripoli from the UN-backed Government of National Accord. 


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 10/09/2019 – 02:45

  • The Duplicitous Agenda Endorsed By The UN And NATO
    The Duplicitous Agenda Endorsed By The UN And NATO

    Authored by Ramona Wadi via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    To the undiscerning, the United Nations (UN) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) perform different roles in the international arena. Yet both organisations have a common aim – the promotion of foreign intervention. While the UN promotes its humanitarian façade, NATO provides the militarisation of the UN’s purported human rights agenda.

    NATO’s participation at the 74th session of the UN General Assembly in September provided an overview of the current collaboration the organisation has with the UN. Jens Stoltelberg, NATO’s Secretary-General, mentioned the organisations’ collaboration in “working closely to support Afghanistan and Iraq”.

    Since the 1990s, the UN and NATO cooperation was based on a framework which included decision-making and strategy on “crisis management and in the fight against terrorism.” In 2001, US President George W Bush launched his ‘War on Terror’ which eventually expanded to leave the Middle East and North Africa in perpetual turmoil, as the coined euphemism morphed into the so-called Arab Spring.

    While the invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 were led by the US, it is worth remembering that the absence of the organisation at that time is not tantamount to the exclusion of warfare from NATO member states. Notably, the US invasion of Afghanistan invoked Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which stipulates that an attack on a NATO member state constitutes an attack on all member states.

    “For NATO-UN cooperation and dialogue to remain meaningful, it must continue to evolve.” The statement on NATO’s website is a bureaucratic approach which detaches itself from the human rights violations created and maintained by both parties, which form the premise of such collaboration.

    UN Security Council Resolution 1373 (2001), upon which NATO based its collaboration with the UN, reaffirms, “the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence as recognised by the Charter of the United Nations.” The resolution provides impunity for member-states and other collaborators with the UN, including NATO, to define what constitutes terrorism while eliminating foreign intervention as a terror act, despite the ramifications which last long after the aggression has been terminated or minimised.

    The UN-NATO duplicity is exposed in Stoltenberg’s speech when he states, “NATO has also contributed to developing UN disposal standards to counter improvised explosive devices, which remain one of the greatest threats to peacekeepers.”

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    Why are the UN and NATO selecting rudimentary forms of warfare over precision bombing which has killed thousands of civilians in the name of fighting terror or bringing democracy?

    In 2011, the UNSC’s arms embargo was supposed to prevent the proliferation of weapons to the rebels in Libya – a contradiction given the UNSC’s authorisation for NATO to bomb Libya. France, however, defied the resolution by publicly declaring its proliferation of weapons to rebels in Libya, on the pretext of their necessity to protect Libyan civilians. NATO denied its involvement as an organisation in providing arms to the rebels, despite the fact that action was taken by a NATO member. With the UN endorsing foreign intervention and NATO implementing the atrocities, the UN can fall back on its alleged peace-building and humanitarian roles, of which there is never a decline due to the irreparable damage both organisations have wreaked upon exploited, colonised and ravaged countries. The cooperation lauded by NATO does not rest on a division of roles but rather on blurring the differentiation between war and humanitarianism, in order to generate both as a duplicitous agenda.

    NATO maintains that the UNSC holds “primary responsibility” for maintaining international peace and security. What the statement evades is the individual interest of each member, as well as their collective framework as NATO members. To satisfy the UNSC, individual interests and NATO membership, a common denominator is imperative. For the perpetrators of foreign intervention, war constitutes the binding legacy.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 10/09/2019 – 02:00

  • Madsen: The Plot To Overthrow The Pope
    Madsen: The Plot To Overthrow The Pope

    Authored by Wayne Madsen via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The moment that Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio of Argentina was elected the first Jesuit Roman Catholic pontiff in papal history, the political long knives aimed at Pope Francis I came out of the shadows of the Vatican.

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    From the outset of his papacy, Francis found himself dealing with his right-wing predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI – a rarity in papal history – who insisted on remaining domiciled in an apartment on Vatican grounds. Benedict has not remained in quiet retirement but has conspired with Francis’s politically influential enemies in the Vatican, Italy, the United States, and other countries.

    Donald Trump, who has publicly criticized Francis, has not interfered as his surrogates, who include former White House strategist Steve Bannon; Cardinal Raymond Burke, the former Archbishop of St. Louis; Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò, the former Apostolic Nuncio to the United States; and others have conspired with the powerful fascist-oriented Opus Dei sect of the church to undermine Francis’s authority. Trump’s eyes and ears inside the Vatican – US ambassador to the Holy See Callista Bisek Gingrich – is the wife of Newt Gingrich, the former Republican Speaker of the US House of Representatives, a convert to Catholicism, and a major Trump political ally.

    Francis, a former bar bouncer in a tough working-class neighborhood of Buenos Aires, has not been a shrinking violet when it comes to fighting back against his right-wing enemies. Francis’s Italian parents were escaping Benito Mussolini’s fascist rule when they emigrated to Argentina. For Francis, defending the church against the fascist Opus Dei and its allies is a battle worth fighting.

    Francis’s enemies have taken a page from the Trump political book. Francis vowed to clean up the church of pedophile priests but he has been charged by his right-wing enemies, including Vigano, Burke, Bannon, Opus Dei, the Franciscan Friars of the Immaculate, and from behind the scenes – Benedict – of tolerating pedophiles and homosexuals in the church. This is the same sort of gaslighting to which Americans have become all-too-accustomed under Trump.

    In order to limit Cardinal Burke’s international reach, Francis suspended him from the post of patron of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta (SMOM), an autonomous international charity entity in Rome that issues its own passports and maintains diplomatic relations with 107 countries and maintains permanent observer status at the United Nations. In 2017, Francis came to the assistance of the Grand Chancellor of the SMOM, Albrecht von Boeselager, after discovering that Burke and Opus Dei were conspiring to oust Boeselager, a member of a German royal house, as Grand Chancellor. Burke and the rightists wanted to sack Boeselager for distributing condoms to people in Myanmar. Francis suspended Burke and appointed Archbishop Giovanni Angelo Becciu as the Pope’s special envoy to the SMOM. Francis is now assured that with Boeselager and Becciu as his eyes and ears inside the SMOM, the rightists and Opus Dei are checkmated when it comes to using the diplomatic offices of the SMOM for their own purposes. Francis also banned the right-wing Franciscan Friars of the Immaculate from conducting public masses in Latin. As far as limiting the power of the rightists inside the Vatican City State, Francis appointed Cardinal Óscar Rodríguez Maradiaga from Honduras as his enforcer to rid the Vatican hierarchy of the pro-Benedict faction, as well as pedophile enablers and financial fraudsters, money launderers, and embezzlers.

    Francis told the Italian newspaper “La Repubblica” that Roman Catholic officials have often been “narcissists, flattered and thrilled by their courtiers,” adding, “the court [the Vatican curia] is the leprosy of the papacy.”

    On October 1, 2019, Francis ordered Vatican police to seize documents, computers, and portable electronic devices from the Vatican Secretary of State and the Financial Information Authority, the latter the financial watchdog of the Vatican. In addition to these two offices, Francis has also placed the Institute of Religious Works (IOR), the so-called “Vatican Bank,” under increased supervision and control. The IOR has been misused in the past for a number of covert operations, including the funding of several right-wing Central Intelligence Agency-linked terrorist groups and death squads in Latin America, particularly the Argentine Anticommunist Alliance (AAA), or “Triple A.”

    Francis was also instrumental in denying to Bannon and Burke the use of a 13th century monastery, the Certosa di Trisulti in Collepardo in central Italy, as a training academy for neo-fascist political operatives from around the world. Bannon’s Brussels-based international “neo-fascisti” grouping, called “The Movement,” had made a deal with a group connected to Burke, the Institute of Human Dignity, or Dignitatis Humana Institute, to lease the 800-room monastery for political training. Burke is the president of the institute’s board of advisers, which provides a direct link between Burke and Bannon. Eleven Cardinals, all opponents of Francis, are on the board of advisers, including Walter Brandmuller; Edwin O’Brien, former Archbishop for the US Military Services and a proponent of the “Just War”; Robert Sarah, the former Archbishop of Conakry, Guinea and an opponent of large scale immigration; Peter Turkson of Ghana; Archbishop Malcolm Ranjith of Colombo, Sri Lanka; including US military intervention in Syria; and Joseph Zen Ze-kiun, a former Bishop of Kong Kong and leading opponent of China’s policies. Benjamin Harnwell, a noted conservative British Catholic, is the President of the Institute’s Board of Trustees. Bannon is both a member of the Board of Trustees and a patron of the institute.

    Bannon called the proposed school the Academy for the Judaeo-Christian West. The Institute of Human Dignity and its British connections has led many to believe that it is also politically connected to the increasingly powerful Catholic wing of the British Conservative Party. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was baptized Catholic and the Speaker of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg, is affiliated with right-wing Catholic circles.

    From the outset, Francis understood that the Bannon training academy would not only be targeting progressive forces around the world but also his papacy. It was fortuitous for Francis that Nicola Zingaretti, the president of the Lazio region, in which the monastery is located, condemned the lease by Bannon’s group. Zingaretti is a member of the left-wing faction of the Democratic Party, which includes former Christian Democrats and Socialists.

    The coup de grace against the fascist academy came in May of this year when it was discovered that the 19-year lease guarantor, a person purporting to be an official of the Jyske Bank of Gibraltar, had forged the lease guarantee letter. On May 31, 2019, the Italian Ministry of Heritage annulled the lease. The forged letter and the financial fraud concerns that led Francis to order files seized from the IOR and the Vatican Secretariat of State are indications that the Catholic right-wing, including Opus Dei, are not conceding defeat but are doubling down using any means necessary, even if they are illegal.

    There is little doubt in Rome that Pope Francis and his allies were working as hard as they could to ensure that after the fall of the coalition government of the far-right League or “Lega” and the populist Five Star Movement, Lega leader and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini would not be able to form a new government. Instead, the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement formed a center-left coalition and Salvini was relegated to the opposition. It has been reported in Rome that Francis appointed Cardinal Pietro Parolin as a special envoy to combat the influences of the neo-fascists in Italy and throughout the European Union. And Francis has picked up an important ally in Forza Italia, the party of former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, now a member of the European Parliament.

    Bannon, Burke, and their allies gambled on winning control of an ancient monastery, the SMOM, and the Italian government. Pope Francis saw their bid and raised it. Francis’s royal flush has sent the neo-fascisti forces of Opus Dei, Bannon, and Salvini into a much-weakened opposition. The moral of the story for the fascisti is to never underestimate a one-time bar bouncer. Francis has been as effective in ousting the far-right from their perches of power in Rome as he once was in ejecting unruly drunks from bars in Buenos Aires.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 10/09/2019 – 00:05

    Tags

  • The Surge In "Surprise" Medical Bills Bankrupting Americans Can Be Blamed On Private Equity
    The Surge In “Surprise” Medical Bills Bankrupting Americans Can Be Blamed On Private Equity

    Surging “surprise” medical bills in the U.S. are private equity’s fault, a new FT opinion piece claims. 

    These “surprise” medical bills continue to be a major talking point in the U.S. and are likely to be a key issue during the upcoming 2020 Presidential race. The term refers to invoices that are generated after a patient is admitted to the hospital and treated, without their knowledge, by someone not in their insurance plan. 

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    And a recent Stanford study shows that these “surprise” bills continue to become more ubiquitous. They are up from about 33% of visits in 2010 to almost 43% in 2016. For inpatient stays, the number is even more alarming: the jump goes from 26% to 42%, with the average cost per patient rising from $804 to $2,040. It’s an issue that only adds to the overwhelming debt bubble we have again created in the U.S. 

    The opinion piece notes that these rising costs come not from hospitals, but rather from the “backwaters of the financial markets”:

    The prices of junk bonds issued by “physician services companies” have been sliding in the past month as their owners weigh the possibility and costs of political intervention. These point to the real source of the problem: private equity’s silent colonisation of parts of the healthcare profession.

    A recent paper by two US academics highlights how private equity activity has driven up the price of healthcare for American consumers. The problem is a result of “the interplay of buyout strategies (which pile leverage on to companies and emphasise financial returns) and the business of treating people, where sick patients have no power to shop around and outcomes come first,” the piece notes. 

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    Private equity has acted as a consolidator in healthcare services, building giant physician services groups like Envision, HealthTeam and AirMedical Group. 

    Envision was a company that was flipped between public and private ownership since 2005. It employs 70,000 staff and spans services like emergency rooms, radiology and anaesthesiology. The businesses are perfect for what private equity is looking for. The academic paper states:

    “Emergency medical services are a perfect buyout target because demand is inelastic, that is it does not decline when prices go up.”

    And in addition to being inelastic, demand is robust: about 50% of medical care comes from emergency room visits.

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    The deals that physician service groups work out with hospitals are rarely transparent to the public. And this is probably for good reason:

    But a study by Yale University of the billing practices of EmCare, Envision’s physician staffing arm, showed that when it took over the management of emergency rooms, it nearly doubled patient charges compared with those levied by previous physician organisations.

    Which raises the question why hospitals go along with these arrangements. Well, some have struck joint-venture deals with physician companies, splitting the extra revenues these entities stick on patients. But for many, they don’t have the resources or the industry clout to combat surprise billing on their own.

    As a result, congress is now considering legislation to curb “surprise” billing in healthcare. The larger debate, as the U.S. will certainly be subjected to leading up to 2020, is whether or not private equity companies belong in the healthcare sector to begin with. Their tactics have done nothing but “give more credence to the arguments of Elizabeth Warren and others,” the piece concludes. 


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 10/08/2019 – 23:45

  • Time To Reassess CrowdStrike's Credibility
    Time To Reassess CrowdStrike’s Credibility

    Authored by Julie Kelly via The Center for American Greatness,

    Days before the Senate voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh last year, a former FBI assistant director appeared on MSNBC to suggest the Supreme Court nominee had a major credibility problem.

    “This is not…an investigation about the sexual allegations, I think it really has moved toward credibility,” Shawn Henry, an NBC News analyst, told Nicolle Wallace on October 1, 2018.

    “At this point now, there are very clear allegations, and subsequent to the judge’s testimony, people have come out who appear to be credible who…appear to be contradicting his testimony sworn before the United States Senate.”

    Henry, clearly reciting Democratic talking points to imply Kavanaugh perjured himself before the Senate Judiciary Committee during his September showdown with Christine Blasey Ford, also referred to Ford as a “victim” and claimed that the FBI’s investigation into Kavanaugh’s testimony had “fallen short.”

    Henry was presented to viewers as the channel’s “national security analyst,” but there was one title the network overlooked: Shawn Henry is a top executive for CrowdStrike, the cybersecurity firm hired by the Democratic National Committee to investigate the infamous hack of its email system in early 2016.

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    Perhaps not coincidentally, the firm determined that the Russians were behind the intrusion.

    CrowdStrike’s June 2016 assessment remains the sole source of evidence to supply the pretext of the government’s Russian election interference claim; later, it would help bolster the Trump-Russia collusion fable.

    The president, according to a transcript released by the White House, mentioned CrowdStrike during a phone call with the new Ukranian president over the summer. Now, the California-based company is facing renewed scrutiny both about the handling of the DNC email hack and the firm’s political affiliations. Last month, in response to questions about the firm’s clear connections to Democrats, CrowdStrike rejected accusations of bias in an FAQ posted on its website:

    CrowdStrike is not affiliated with any political party. We are a public cybersecurity company, and are non-partisan. We have done cybersecurity work for, and currently protect, both Republican and Democratic political organizations at the state, local, and federal level.”

    That may be true in the most technical sense, but there are plenty of reasons to suspect that CrowdStrike is far from a disinterested player in the impeachment drama engulfing official Washington and gaslighting the American public. And since CrowdStrike produced the single piece of evidence used in the endless feedback loop to convince Americans that the Russians breached the DNC’s email system—the party refused to surrender its email devices to the FBI—reassessing the firm’s credibility in light of new information is warranted; in fact, it’s vital.

    Henry, the president of CrowdStrike’s Washington operation, is a regular contributor to both MSNBC and NBC News programs. (His affiliation with CrowdStrike, however, is never mentioned.) Although he hasn’t worked for the FBI since 2012, Henry often weighs in as an FBI “expert,” opining on a variety of political issues from government shutdowns to the Kavanaugh debacle. Curiously, his views always come down on the side opposite of Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

    In March 2017, Henry—who worked for Robert Mueller’s FBI during Barack Obama’s first term—participated in a post-inauguration forum to discuss the implications of Russia’s “hacking” the 2016 presidential election. The panel also featured former Hillary Clinton campaign manager John Podesta and Marc Elias, the general partner at Perkins Coie, a politically-influential law firm based in D.C..

    It was a symbolic trio. Perkins Coie hired CrowdStrike in the spring of 2016 on behalf of the DNC. Instead of going directly to the FBI or other law enforcement agency about the breach, Democratic party leaders, working through Perkins Coie, retained CrowdStrike to find the culprits. Very cozy.

    But that wasn’t Perkins Coie’s only involvement in the Russia-hacked-the-election plotline. The law firm also hired Fusion GPS—who in turn hired British political operative Christopher Steele to author his infamous dossier—on behalf of the Clinton campaign and the DNC around the same time Perkins retained CrowdStrike. According to disclosure reports, the DNC paid Perkins Coie $7.2 million during the 2016 election cycle: The PAC also paid CrowdStrike more than $400,000 during the same time period. (The DNC has paid CrowdStrike nearly $80,000 so far this year.)

    And while CrowdStrike was working for the DNC in 2016, the firm also collaborated with key officials in the Obama Justice Department as it was ramping up its investigation into Trump’s presidential campaign. During a technology conference in March 2016, CrowdStrike hosted a cyber “war game” with Obama administration officials: “Four teams of ten people met for two hours to play the game,” according to an October 2016 profile in Esquire. “[National Security Division chief] John Carlin; Chris Painter…at the State Department; and Chris Inglis, the former deputy director of the NSA, were all part of the government team. A former member of GCHQ, the British intelligence organization, was on the international team. Ash Carter, the defense secretary, arrived halfway through and asked to play, but the game was already under way.”

    Before Obama’s intelligence officials released a statement on October 7 that blamed the Russians for the DNC email breach, according to the Esquire article, Dmitri Alperovitch, CrowdStrike’s co-founder, was given a heads-up.

    “Alperovitch got a phone call from a senior government official alerting him that a statement identifying Russia as the sponsor of the DNC attack would soon be released. Once again, Alperovitch was thanked for pushing the government along.”

    The statement, issued by Obama’s Department of Homeland Security and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper one month before Election Day, lifted some of the wording from CrowdStrike’s report on the DNC breach. (Again, it’s important to note that no federal agency was allowed access to the DNC email servers; all evidence of Russian hacking came directly from CrowdStrike.)

    Further, according to reporting by Michael Tracey, CrowdStrike had a contract with the FBI for $150,000 between July 2015 and July 2016 for unknown services.

    Interesting.

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    So, to summarize, at the same time Perkins Coie hired Fusion GPS to dig up Russia-related dirt on Donald Trump, it hired CrowdStrike to investigate the hack of the DNC email systems. CrowdStrike, also at the same time, was working with the Obama Justice Department as the agency began investigating Trump campaign aides for suspected “collusion” with the Kremlin.

    Even if one accepts those connections as standard Washington operating procedure, Henry’s political commentary should be enough to give more fair-minded observers pause about his company’s objectivity. In August, Henry appeared on Andrea Mitchell’s MSNBC show to push for stricter gun control in the aftermath of the El Paso mass shooting. “There’s a whole host of things that need to be done to change the climate, background investigations, background checks, will keep guns out of the hands of bad people,” Henry said on August 8. “But there’s a lot more that needs to be done in order to successfully mitigate what we’ve seen here over the past few years.” Yes, because mass shootings only started happening after Bad Orange Man was elected.

    Last January, during the government shutdown, Henry warned that the move was affecting the “morale” of the FBI and threatened national security. “These operations are being impacted and that is a risk to the American public, it’s a risk to this country and it is absolutely a national security challenge,” Henry told MSNBC’s Brian Williams on January 23.

    Henry also lamented the climate at the FBI after the arrest of the so-called package bomber Casar Sayoc last year. “What the FBI has gone through has been some morale issues of course with a lot of the language that’s been out there,” Henry said on the “Today” show on October 27, 2018. The language, it’s safe to assume, was criticism by President Trump, congressional Republicans and conservative media about the FBI’s activities in 2016 and 2017.

    Trump foes dismiss any scrutiny of CrowdStrike as part of a “conspiracy theory.” But the tangled web between CrowdStrike, Democratic operatives, the Trump-hating media and the Obama Justice Department isn’t a theory, it is fact. And since the firm played a critical early role in planting the Russia collusion hoax, Trump and his allies are right to raise more questions.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 10/08/2019 – 23:25

    Tags

  • Rail Recession: Carloads Tumble To Thee-Year Lows Amid Manufacturing Implosion
    Rail Recession: Carloads Tumble To Thee-Year Lows Amid Manufacturing Implosion

    As manufacturing plummets to the weakest levels since September 2009 and new export orders collapse, the US railroad industry has jus seen carload volumes tumble to three-year lows, according to a weekly report from the Association of American Railroads (AAR), first reported by Bloomberg on Monday. 

    AAR’s report showed a decline in carloads for 3Q19, down 5.5%, and one of the most significant drops in three years, indicating that the US economy continues to decelerate into year-end. Most of the shipment declines were seen in autos, coal, grain, chemicals, and consumer goods, but there was a small improvement in crude oil shipments.

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    Bloomberg blames the trade war between the US and China for the rail recession. 

    “What’s quite clear is that we’re not yet at a trough. Trains have not yet bottomed,” said Ben Hartford, an analyst with Robert W. Baird & Co. “We need to have some clarity in trade policy.”

    The manufacturing recession is more widespread than the mid-cycle slowdowns in 2012 and 2015/16. The slowdown has been concentrated in manufacturing for well over a year, driven by a downturn in business investments in 2019. 

    The rail slowdown is a direct result of a manufacturing recession. As of last week, there is an indication that the downturn has spilled over into service sector output and employment.

    Now, “there are no pockets of growth,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Lee Klaskow, who said a “railroad recession” could be imminent in a recent report. “There’s really nothing that’s tapping me on the shoulder saying, ‘Hey look at me. I’m going to be your next growth engine.'” 

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    Klaskow said, a rail recession isn’t a sign that a full-blown recession is imminent, but as we said a little bit ago, the slowdown has spilled over into services and employment, which could mean a much broader slowdown is already here. 

    Last Friday, we outlined how class 8 orders crashed 71% in September, reaching 12,600 units. This makes September the 11th consecutive month of YoY order declines and the 9th consecutive month of orders below 20,000.

    Class 8 orders, otherwise known as heavy-duty trucks, are often seen as a pulse on the US economy. That can also be said for rail.  

    “That’s the risk at this point in time, that the consumer does begin to show impacts from the pain that we see on the manufacturing side,” Hartford said. As for rail freight, “when is it going to turn? I honestly have no idea.”

    And we can answer Hartford’s question above: There are no indications that manufacturing will trough and turn higher this year – the deceleration should continue through year-end. This means a growth scare for the US economy is imminent, and or has already been triggered with the recent deluge of awful manufacturing and non-manufacturing data points. 


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 10/08/2019 – 23:05

  • John Lennon Vs. The Deep State: One Man Against The "Monster"
    John Lennon Vs. The Deep State: One Man Against The “Monster”

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “You gotta remember, establishment, it’s just a name for evil. The monster doesn’t care whether it kills all the students or whether there’s a revolution. It’s not thinking logically, it’s out of control.”—John Lennon (1969)

    John Lennon, born 79 years ago on October 9, 1940, was a musical genius and pop cultural icon.

    He was also a vocal peace protester and anti-war activist and a high-profile example of the lengths to which the Deep State will go to persecute those who dare to challenge its authority.

    Long before Julian Assange, Edward Snowden and Chelsea Manning were being castigated for blowing the whistle on the government’s war crimes and the National Security Agency’s abuse of its surveillance powers, it was Lennon who was being singled out for daring to speak truth to power about the government’s warmongering, his phone calls monitored and data files illegally collected on his activities and associations.

    For a while, at least, Lennon became enemy number one in the eyes of the U.S. government.

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    Years after Lennon’s assassination it would be revealed that the FBI had collected 281 pages of files on him, including song lyrics. J. Edgar Hoover, head of the FBI at the time, directed the agency to spy on the musician. There were also various written orders calling on government agents to frame Lennon for a drug bust.

    “The FBI’s files on Lennon … read like the writings of a paranoid goody-two-shoes,” observed reporter Jonathan Curiel.

    As the New York Times notes, “Critics of today’s domestic surveillance object largely on privacy grounds. They have focused far less on how easily government surveillance can become an instrument for the people in power to try to hold on to power. ‘The U.S. vs. John Lennon’ … is the story not only of one man being harassed, but of a democracy being undermined.”

    Indeed, all of the many complaints we have about government today – surveillance, militarism, corruption, harassment, SWAT team raids, political persecution, spying, overcriminalization, etc. – were present in Lennon’s day and formed the basis of his call for social justice, peace and a populist revolution.

    For all of these reasons, the U.S. government was obsessed with Lennon, who had learned early on that rock music could serve a political end by proclaiming a radical message. More importantly, Lennon saw that his music could mobilize the public and help to bring about change. Lennon believed in the power of the people. Unfortunately, as Lennon recognized: “The trouble with government as it is, is that it doesn’t represent the people. It controls them.”

    However, as Martin Lewis writing for Time notes: “John Lennon was not God. But he earned the love and admiration of his generation by creating a huge body of work that inspired and led. The appreciation for him deepened because he then instinctively decided to use his celebrity as a bully pulpit for causes greater than his own enrichment or self-aggrandizement.”

    For instance, in December 1971 at a concert in Ann Arbor, Mich., Lennon took to the stage and in his usual confrontational style belted out “John Sinclair,” a song he had written about a man sentenced to 10 years in prison for possessing two marijuana cigarettes. Within days of Lennon’s call for action, the Michigan Supreme Court ordered Sinclair released.

    What Lennon did not know at the time was that government officials had been keeping strict tabs on the ex-Beatle they referred to as “Mr. Lennon.” Incredibly, FBI agents were in the audience at the Ann Arbor concert, “taking notes on everything from the attendance (15,000) to the artistic merits of his new song.”

    The U.S. government, steeped in paranoia, was spying on Lennon.

    By March 1971, when his “Power to the People” single was released, it was clear where Lennon stood. Having moved to New York City that same year, Lennon was ready to participate in political activism against the U. S. government, the “monster” that was financing the war in Vietnam.

    The release of Lennon’s Sometime in New York City album, which contained a radical anti-government message in virtually every song and depicted President Richard Nixon and Chinese Chairman Mao Tse-tung dancing together nude on the cover, only fanned the flames of the conflict to come.

    The official U.S. war against Lennon began in earnest in 1972 after rumors surfaced that Lennon planned to embark on a U.S. concert tour that would combine rock music with antiwar organizing and voter registration. Nixon, fearing Lennon’s influence on about 11 million new voters (1972 was the first year that 18-year-olds could vote), had the ex-Beatle served with deportation orders “in an effort to silence him as a voice of the peace movement.”

    Then again, the FBI has had a long history of persecuting, prosecuting and generally harassing activists, politicians, and cultural figures. Most notably among the latter are such celebrated names as folk singer Pete Seeger, painter Pablo Picasso, comic actor and filmmaker Charlie Chaplin, comedian Lenny Bruce and poet Allen Ginsberg.

    Among those most closely watched by the FBI was Martin Luther King Jr., a man labeled by the FBI as “the most dangerous and effective Negro leader in the country.” With wiretaps and electronic bugs planted in his home and office, King was kept under constant surveillance by the FBI with the aim of “neutralizing” him. He even received letters written by FBI agents suggesting that he either commit suicide or the details of his private life would be revealed to the public. The FBI kept up its pursuit of King until he was felled by a hollow-point bullet to the head in 1968.

    While Lennon was not—as far as we know—being blackmailed into suicide, he was the subject of a four-year campaign of surveillance and harassment by the U.S. government (spearheaded by FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover), an attempt by President Richard Nixon to have him “neutralized” and deported. As Adam Cohen of the New York Times points out, “The F.B.I.’s surveillance of Lennon is a reminder of how easily domestic spying can become unmoored from any legitimate law enforcement purpose. What is more surprising, and ultimately more unsettling, is the degree to which the surveillance turns out to have been intertwined with electoral politics.”

    As Lennon’s FBI file shows, memos and reports about the FBI’s surveillance of the anti-war activist had been flying back and forth between Hoover, the Nixon White House, various senators, the FBI and the U.S. Immigration Office.

    Nixon’s pursuit of Lennon was relentless and in large part based on the misperception that Lennon and his comrades were planning to disrupt the 1972 Republican National Convention. The government’s paranoia, however, was misplaced.

    Left-wing activists who were on government watch lists and who shared an interest in bringing down the Nixon Administration had been congregating at Lennon’s New York apartment. But when they revealed that they were planning to cause a riot, Lennon balked. As he recounted in a 1980 interview, “We said, We ain’t buying this. We’re not going to draw children into a situation to create violence so you can overthrow what? And replace it with what? . . . It was all based on this illusion, that you can create violence and overthrow what is, and get communism or get some right-wing lunatic or a left-wing lunatic. They’re all lunatics.”

    Despite the fact that Lennon was not part of the “lunatic” plot, the government persisted in its efforts to have him deported. Equally determined to resist, Lennon dug in and fought back. Every time he was ordered out of the country, his lawyers delayed the process by filing an appeal. Finally, in 1976, Lennon won the battle to stay in the country when he was granted a green card. As he said afterwards, “I have a love for this country…. This is where the action is. I think we’ll just go home, open a tea bag, and look at each other.” 

    Lennon’s time of repose didn’t last long, however. By 1980, he had re-emerged with a new album and plans to become politically active again.

    The old radical was back and ready to cause trouble. In his final interview on Dec. 8, 1980, Lennon mused, “The whole map’s changed and we’re going into an unknown future, but we’re still all here, and while there’s life there’s hope.”

    The Deep State has a way of dealing with troublemakers, unfortunately. On Dec. 8, 1980, Mark David Chapman was waiting in the shadows when Lennon returned to his New York apartment building. As Lennon stepped outside the car to greet the fans congregating outside, Chapman, in an eerie echo of the FBI’s moniker for Lennon, called out, “Mr. Lennon!”

    Lennon turned and was met with a barrage of gunfire as Chapman—dropping into a two-handed combat stance—emptied his .38-caliber pistol and pumped four hollow-point bullets into his back and left arm. Lennon stumbled, staggered forward and, with blood pouring from his mouth and chest, collapsed to the ground.

    John Lennon was pronounced dead on arrival at the hospital. He had finally been “neutralized.”

    Yet where those who neutralized the likes of John Lennon, Martin Luther King Jr., John F. Kennedy, Malcolm X, Robert Kennedy and others go wrong is in believing that you can murder a movement with a bullet and a madman.

    Thankfully, Lennon’s legacy lives on in his words, his music and his efforts to speak truth to power. As Yoko Ono shared in a 2014 letter to the parole board tasked with determining whether Chapman should be released: “A man of humble origin, [John Lennon] brought light and hope to the whole world with his words and music. He tried to be a good power for the world, and he was. He gave encouragement, inspiration and dreams to people regardless of their race, creed and gender.”

    Sadly, not much has changed for the better in the world since Lennon walked among us.

    Peace remains out of reach. Activism and whistleblowers continue to be prosecuted for challenging the government’s authority. Militarism is on the rise, with local police dressed like the military, all the while the governmental war machine continues to wreak havoc on innocent lives across the globe. Just recently, for example, U.S. military forces carried out drone strikes in Afghanistan that killed 30 pine nut farmers.

    For those of us who joined with John Lennon to imagine a world of peace, it’s getting harder to reconcile that dream with the reality of the American police state.

    Meanwhile, as I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, those who dare to speak up are labeled dissidents, troublemakers, terrorists, lunatics, or mentally ill and tagged for surveillance, censorship, involuntary detention or, worse, even shot and killed in their own homes by militarized police.

    As Lennon shared in a 1968 interview:

    “I think all our society is run by insane people for insane objectives… I think we’re being run by maniacs for maniacal means. If anybody can put on paper what our government and the American government and the Russian… Chinese… what they are actually trying to do, and what they think they’re doing, I’d be very pleased to know what they think they’re doing. I think they’re all insane. But I’m liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That’s what’s insane about it.”

    So what’s the answer?

    Lennon had a multitude of suggestions.

    “If everyone demanded peace instead of another television set, then there’d be peace.”

    “War is over if you want it.”

    “Produce your own dream…. It’s quite possible to do anything, but not to put it on the leaders…. You have to do it yourself. That’s what the great masters and mistresses have been saying ever since time began. They can point the way, leave signposts and little instructions in various books that are now called holy and worshipped for the cover of the book and not for what it says, but the instructions are all there for all to see, have always been and always will be. There’s nothing new under the sun. All the roads lead to Rome. And people cannot provide it for you. I can’t wake you up. You can wake you up. I can’t cure you. You can cure you.”

    “Peace is not something you wish for; It’s something you make, Something you do, Something you are, And something you give away.”

    “If you want peace, you won’t get it with violence.”

    And my favorite advice of all:

    “Say you want a revolution / We better get on right away / Well you get on your feet / And out on the street / Singing power to the people.”


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 10/08/2019 – 22:45

    Tags

  • "Liberate Hong Kong" – Blizzard Goes Berserk On Gamer For Hong Kong Support, Pulls Cash Prize
    “Liberate Hong Kong” – Blizzard Goes Berserk On Gamer For Hong Kong Support, Pulls Cash Prize

    Hong Kong player Chung “blitzchung” Ng Waig, a Hearthstone Grandmaster, appeared over the weekend on an official Taiwanese Hearthstone live stream for a post-game wrap-up, wearing protestor attire, the same attire that would be found at the Hong Kong riots, reported Kotaku

    During the live stream, he screamed in Chinese: “Liberate Hong Kong, a revolution of our age!”

    The live stream hosts immediately cut the feed, and it was reported shortly thereafter that game developer Blizzard, pulled blitzchung’s cash winnings to avoid controversy in China. 

    As soon as blitzchung made the pro-Hong Kong protest statement, the hosts of the live stream hid under a desk.

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    One of the hosts said, “Ok, that’s it, Blitz bro,” as the production team killed blitzchung’s feed — and the live stream shortly ended with a commercial break. 

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    Blizzard knew severe political consequences were ahead in China if it allowed blitzchung to go unpunished.

    The game developer issued a statement shortly after the incident that said blitzchung violated a competition rule, which states:

    2019 HEARTHSTONE® GRANDMASTERS OFFICIAL COMPETITION RULES v1.4 p.12, Section 6.1 (o)

    Engaging in any act that, in Blizzard’s sole discretion, brings you into public disrepute, offends a portion or group of the public, or otherwise damages Blizzard image will result in removal from Grandmasters and reduction of the player’s prize total to $0 USD, in addition to other remedies which may be provided for under the Handbook and Blizzard’s Website Terms.

    Blizard said the player had been removed as a Grandmaster from the game, his cash prize, and participation in Hearthstone esports will be suspended “for 12 months beginning from Oct. 5th, 2019, and extending to Oct. 5th, 2020”.

    Blizzard also said they terminated the hosts of the official Taiwanese Hearthstone live stream. 

    “While we stand by one’s right to express individual thoughts and opinions, players and other participants that elect to participate in our esports competitions must abide by the official competition rules,” the statement said.

    This comes at a time when Hong Kong protests intensified over the weekend. Protesters took to the streets on Saturday and Sunday in another round of violent clashes with police. 

    It’s already been a rocky start to the week for anyone speaking their minds on Hong Kong. 

    We reported earlier on Tuesday, China’s state broadcaster, CCTV, canceled broadcasts of NBA games in China after Daryl Morey tweeted (then swiftly deleted) a message of support for the Hong Kong protesters.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 10/08/2019 – 22:25

  • Ripple CEO: Facebook's Libra Will Not Launch Before 2023
    Ripple CEO: Facebook’s Libra Will Not Launch Before 2023

    Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

    Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of blockchain payments network Ripple, thinks that Facebook will fail to launch its Libra digital currency before 2023. 

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    image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

    Garlinghouse bets on a 3-year Libra delay

    Speaking in an interview with Fortune on Oct. 7, Brad Garlinghouse argued that regulatory pushback would continue to plague the project that was only announced in June, noting:

    “I would bet that Libra… let’s say, by the end of 2022, I think Libra will not have launched.”

    Garlinghouse also noted various problems governments have raised with Facebook around the world over its digital currency plans.

    As Cointelegraph reported, it was Germany’s finance minister who most recently vented concerns, arguing that money issuance should remain in the hands of the state.

    Tim Cook, the CEO of Applesaid likewise on Oct. 4, adding that the tech giant would not follow Facebook’s lead.

    Facebook left with fewer allies

    “I think maybe it would have been better received if Facebook had not been the point of the arrow,” Garlinghouse continued. He added that regulators likely saw Libra as a Facebook project.

    The comments come after a particularly tough week for Facebook’s Libra Association, the nonprofit behind the project. On Friday, PayPal, one of its major backers, pulled out of participation altogether, citing worries that its own reputation would suffer.

    “We remain supportive of Libra’s aspirations and look forward to continued dialogue on ways to work together in the future,” a representative of the firm told Cointelegraph.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 10/08/2019 – 22:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 8th October 2019

  • Goldman Believes Johnson Can Still Pull Off Last-Minute Brexit Deal
    Goldman Believes Johnson Can Still Pull Off Last-Minute Brexit Deal

    Analysts at Goldman have been assiduously tracking ‘Brexit’ odds, and with the uproar over Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s alternative Brexit plan this week, the bank’s Brexit team has published a new note laying out the various alternatives for how the Brexit drama might play out over the coming weeks.

    In terms of the final outcome, the bank’s odds haven’t changed much:  Goldman’s team of analysts still believe that the most likely outcome (60%) is for the UK and EU to agree on a deal before Oct. 31. Next up? Another delay – the ‘no Brexit at all’ option – to which the analysts assigned odds of 25%.

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    The least likely outcome (15%), despite all of the handwringing and hysteria in Parliament, is a ‘no deal’ Brexit on Oct. 31, as most expect the Commons will find some way to force Johnson to comply with a law requiring him to request a delay if a Brexit deal isn’t reached by mid-October.

    Their biggest cause for optimism is their belief that Johnson’s deal, contentious as it may be, will serve as the basis for a final deal with the EU27.

    According to PM Johnson’s latest Brexit proposals, Northern Ireland (NI) and Great Britain (GB) would both leave the EU’s customs union, but NI would remain aligned with EU regulations on all goods and agri-foods. This plan would necessitate customs checks on North-South trade and regulatory checks on East-West trade, with the former taking place away from the frontier and the latter subject to re-approval by the Northern Ireland Assembly every four years. In most other respects, PM Johnson’s Brexit proposals resemble the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated between the UK and the EU under former Prime Minister Theresa May.

    The customs checks proposed between Northern Ireland and Ireland are contentious because they repudiate the joint commitment made in December 2017 to avoid “a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls” on the island of Ireland.

    The mechanism for approval by the NI Assembly is contentious because, at least on current proposals, the DUP would have an effective veto over Northern Ireland’s position in the EU’s single market. Any such veto would be unacceptable to Ireland, not least because it risks hardening the North-South regulatory border in the future.

    Johnson’s plan, as the analysts observe, strikes a compromise between two proposals: “The Northern Ireland-Only Backstop” (which was rejected by the Commons) and the “Brady Amendment”, which was rejected by the EU27.

    Because of this, they believe both sides have room for compromise.

    We think there is political space for further compromise. PM Johnson was careful to present last week’s proposals as an opening offer rather than an ultimatum. First, the NI consent mechanism could be re-configured to remove any single party’s potential veto power. Second, the implementation period preceding any new customs arrangements could be extended, well beyond the end of 2020. Third, if a backstop were to be reinserted into current proposals, that backstop could be covered by a time limit together with the principle of consent, in order to allay concerns that NI might be permanently excluded from the customs territory inhabited by the rest of the UK.

    In our view, a mutually acceptable compromise could include NI (not UK) membership of the “facilitated customs arrangement” proposed in the Political Declaration advocated by PM May, with the default position beneath Stormont’s consent mechanism implying ongoing NI membership of EU (not UK) regulatory rules. Taking a longer view, it is important to note that the current UK government seems intent on: (i) leaving the EU “whole and entire”, (ii) pursuing an independent trade policy, and (iii) respecting the peace process in Northern Ireland. These three objectives imply that – sooner or later – the UK and the EU must negotiate a practical solution to allow two customs territories to co-exist on the island of Ireland. That solution is likely to rely on the reconciliation of two different interpretations of the Good Friday Agreement.

    And Johnson’s ability to shift the DUP’s position ever-so-slightly from opposing to accepting regulatory checks suggests that the PM would be able to sell a backstop-compromise deal to Parliament if it truly comes down to ‘this deal or no Brexit at all’.

    PM Johnson has managed to shift the DUP from a position in which they oppose any checks of any kind between GB and NI, to a position in which they accept regulatory checks but oppose customs checks on East-West trade. If the DUP agree to the EU’s counter-offer, we think the majority of the Eurosceptics in the Conservative Party will follow suit. If the existing Political Declaration is also enhanced to include commitments to uphold workers’ rights and maintain existing environmental standards, we think a clutch of Labour MPs from “Leave” constituencies will also be incentivised to vote in favour of a Brexit deal.

    Of course, any keen observer of the Brexit process would have some thoughts on the possibility of a snap election. Goldman believes Parliament ultimately won’t brook the risk that an election returns a Johnson-led majority in favor of a no-deal exit. Polls suggest this is a real possibility (even if the perception from all of the media coverage might suggest that the conservatives would be in for a serious electoral beatdown).

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    For Johnson, the key to securing a deal, according to Goldman, is fanning the perception that no-deal is a real possibility. Thanks to the Benn Act (the law that was passed by last month by a ‘rebel alliance’ of MPs), Johnson will be legally compelled to request an extension if there’s no deal by Oct. 19. Goldman’s analysts are skeptical that Johnson will be able to find a legal loophole…but this must continue to seem like a real possibility for Europe.

    But if Johnson has any trouble winning support for whatever compromise agreement is hammered out with the EU, a legal challenge to the Benn Act could help Johnson give Parliament the impression that its only choices are ‘Johnson’s deal’ or ‘no deal’. Which might be enough to convince any remaining Tory holdouts.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 10/08/2019 – 02:45

  • "World Take Note!" – Genocide Of Christians In Nigeria Escalates
    “World Take Note!” – Genocide Of Christians In Nigeria Escalates

    Authored by Raymond Ibrahim via The Gatestone Institute,

    Muhammadu Buhari, the Muslim president of Nigeria – who reached that position in part thanks to former US President Barack H. Obamacontinues to fuel the “genocide” of Christians in his nation, according to Nigerian Christian leaders.

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    Most recently, Father Valentine Obinna, a priest of the Aba diocese of Nigeria, attributed the ongoing slaughter of Christians to the planned “Islamization of Nigeria”:

    People read the handwriting on the wall. It’s obvious. It’s underground. It’s trying to make the whole country a Muslim country. But they are trying to do that in a context with a strong presence of Christians, and that’s why it becomes very difficult for him [Buhari].”

    Nigeria is roughly half Muslim, half Christian. A 2011 ABC News report offers context on when and why Muslim anger reached a boiling point:

    The current wave of [Muslim] riots was triggered by the Independent National Election Commission’s (INEC) announcement on Monday [April 18, 2011] that the incumbent President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan [a Christian], won in the initial round of ballot counts. That there were riots in the largely Muslim inhabited northern states where the defeat of the Muslim candidate Muhammadu Buhari was intolerable, was unsurprising. Northerners [Muslims] felt they were entitled to the presidency for the declared winner, President Jonathan, [who] assumed leadership after the Muslim president, Umaru Yar’Adua died in office last year and radical groups in the north [Boko Haram] had seen his [Jonathan’s] ascent as a temporary matter to be corrected at this year’s election. Now they are angry despite experts and observers concurring that this is the fairest and most independent election in recent Nigerian history.

    Between 2011 and 2015, Boko Haram – a jihadi group that committed ISIS-types of atrocities even before ISIS came into being — terrorized and slaughtered thousands of Christians, particularly those living in the Muslim-majority north. In 2015, Nigeria’s Muslims finally got what they wanted: a Muslim president in the person of Muhammadu Buhari. The violence, however, only got worse. Muslim Fulani herdsmen – the ethnic tribe from which Buhari hails – joined and even surpassed Boko Haram in their slaughter of Christians.

    Between June 2017 and June 2018 alone, Muslim Fulani slaughtered approximately 9,000 Christians and destroyed at least a thousand churches. (It took three times longer for the Fulani to kill a fraction [1,484] of Christians under Jonathan’s presidency.) In just the first six months of this year, 52 lethal terror attacks targeting Christian villages occurred.

    “Nearly every single day, I wake up with text messages from partners in Nigeria, such as this morning: ‘Herdsmen stab 49-year-old farmer to death in Ogan,'” human rights lawyer Ann Buwalda said in July.

    Whenever the mainstream media touches on the violence wracking Nigeria, it repeats what Obama’s Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Johnnie Carson, claimed after a church was bombed, leaving nearly 40 Christian worshippers dead on Easter Sunday, 2012.

    “I want to take this opportunity,” Carson said, “to stress one key point and that is that religion is not driving extremist violence” in Nigeria.

    As Sister Monica Chikwe recently explained, however:

    “It’s tough to tell Nigerian Christians this isn’t a religious conflict since what they see are Fulani fighters clad entirely in black, chanting ‘Allahu Akbar!’ and screaming ‘Death to Christians.'”

    Similarly, the Christian Association of Nigeria asked:

    “How can it be a [secular or economic] clash when one group [Muslims] is persistently attacking, killing, maiming, destroying, and the other group [Christians] is persistently being killed, maimed and their places of worship destroyed?”

    In short, Christians are being targeted by Boko Haram and Fulani herdsmen because, to quote Fr. Valentine Obinna, President Buhari and his Muslim cabinet “want to make sure the whole country becomes a Muslim country,”

    As the following quotes make clear, Fr. Obinna is not alone in accusing President Buhari of clandestinely fueling his Fulani clansmen’s jihad against Christians:

    • “[T]he Muslim president [Buhari] has only awarded the murderers with impunity rather than justice and has staffed his government with Islamic officials, while doing essentially nothing to give the nation’s Christians, who make up half the population, due representation….. Hundreds of indigenous Numan Christians in Adamawa state were attacked and killed by jihadist Fulani herdsmen. When they tried to defend themselves the Buhari govt. sent in the Airforce to bomb hundreds of them and protect the Fulani aggressors. Is this fair? WORLD TAKE NOTE!” — former Minister of Aviation, Femi Fani-Kayode, 2017 (caps in original; see here too).

    • “Under President Buhari, the murderous Fulani herdsmen enjoyed unprecedented protection and favoritism… Rather than arrest and prosecute the Fulani herdsmen, security forces usually manned by Muslims from the North offer them protection as they unleash terror with impunity on the Nigerian people.” — Rev. Musa Asake, the General Secretary of the Christian Association of Nigeria, 2018.

    • Buhari “is himself from the jihadists’ Fulani tribe, so what can you expect?” — Emmanuel Ogebe, Washington DC-based human rights lawyer, in conversation with Gatestone, 2018.

    • “They want to strike Christians, and the government does nothing to stop them, because President Buhari is also of the Fulani ethnic group.” — Bishop Matthew Ishaya Audu of Lafia, 2018.

    • Buhari “is openly pursuing an anti-Christian agenda that has resulted in countless murders of Christians all over the nation and destruction of vulnerable Christian communities.” — Bosun Emmanuel, the secretary of the National Christian Elders Forum, 2018.

    While acknowledging President Buhari’s role, the National Christian Elders Forum has been more direct concerning the ultimate source of violence in Nigeria:

    “JIHAD has been launched in Nigeria by the Islamists of northern Nigeria led by the Fulani ethnic group. This Jihad is based on the Doctrine of Hate taught in Mosques and Islamic Madrasas in northern Nigeria as well as the supremacist ideology of the Fulani. Using both conventional (violent) Jihad, and stealth (civilization) Jihad, the Islamists of northern Nigeria seem determined to turn Nigeria into an Islamic Sultanate and replace Liberal Democracy with Sharia as the National Ideology. … We want a Nigeria, where citizens are treated equally before the law at all levels….”

    Although Christians were only recently the majority of Nigeria’s population, the ongoing genocide against them has caused their population to drop – to the point that Christianity in Nigeria is, according to the National Christian Elders Forum, “on the brink of extinction,” thanks to “the ascendancy of Sharia ideology in Nigeria [which] rings the death toll for the Nigerian Church.”

    Such is the current state of affairs: a jihad of genocidal proportions has been declared on the Christian population of Nigeria — and according to Nigerian Christian leaders, spearheaded by that nation’s president and his fellow Fulani tribesmen — even as Western media and analysts present Nigeria’s problems as products of economics — or “inequality” and “poverty,” to quote former US President Bill Clinton on the supposedly true source that is “fueling all this stuff.”


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 10/08/2019 – 02:00

  • Democracy Is Now A Hindrance To The Imperial State
    Democracy Is Now A Hindrance To The Imperial State

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    Democracy is the coat of paint applied for PR purposes to the Imperial State.

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    If we step back from the histrionics of impeachment and indeed, the past four years of political circus, we have to wonder if America’s democracy is little more than an elaborate simulation, a counterfeit democracy that matches our counterfeit capitalism (Matt Stoller’s term).

    If we review the mechanics of our “democracy,” we find that swapping which party controls Congress doesn’t really change the policies of The Imperial State, the central state that oversees America’s global commercial and geopolitical empire.

    Next, consider the high return rate of incumbents. Once in power, politicos can skim the millions of dollars in campaign contributions needed to win re-election.

    Then there’s the some are more equal than others nature of the judicial system that serves the interests of financial and political elites: Bernie Madoff was free to continue his Ponzi scheme for years despite whistleblower attempts to instigate a federal investigation, and pedophile /schmoozer / “intelligence agency asset” Jeffrey Epstein was free to exploit underage teens and pile up $200 million after a wrist-slap conviction.

    The corporate mass media is the PR machine for the Imperial State. If the state seeks to sell the public a war of choice, the media dutifully pounds the drums of war. If the Imperial State decides to disempower a president or other elected official, the media will hound the elected official until he/she is disgraced or buried, too busy fighting off the ceaseless media propaganda to function. The mass media excels at ruthlessly mocking political targets, reducing their stature in the public eye and undermining their “soft power.”

    As for presidents: as long as the prez follows the Imperial minders’ orders, everything will be fine. Cross the minders and you’re out. The perfect presidential candidate from the perspective of the Eastern Establishment / National Security State was Bush I: Eastern Establishment blue-blood, Yale, combat military service, and stints in high offices, including high-level diplomacy and the CIA.

    Bush I famously lacked “the vision thing,” but presidents only need “the vision thing” during the campaign–witness Obama’s “hope and change” slogan. Once elected, they just need to follow the Imperial script, which includes a permanent PR campaign touting “democracy” as a necessary facade for the actual workings of the Imperial State.

    Bush I was the ideal Imperial State president because he understood the need for the velvet glove of diplomacy, the most important element of which is an orchestrated demonstration of Imperial restraint. This also includes healthy dollops of PR about the sanctity of our alliances, which are heavily promoted as the acme of win-win cooperation, etc. He also understood the essential role of America’s commercial Empire: the US dollar, US banking and US corporate interests around the world.

    Imperial State handlers cannot tolerate loose-cannon presidents, those who keep their own council and who act outside the “recommended guidelines,” for example, trying to make peace with rivals and enemies that the Imperial State cultivates as “enemies” for its own purposes.

    John F. Kennedy appeared to be the ideal Imperial State president: wealthy Eastern Establishment, Harvard, combat military service, informal diplomatic experience via his father’s connections, an enthusiastic supporter of the Imperial State’s Cold War and a youthful politician with superb communication skills who the mass media fell for hook, line and sinker.

    Once Kennedy soured on the CIA, things got dicey. The ideal president quickly became less ideal as his independence grew.

    The Imperial State and mass media always feared and hated Richard Nixon, a poker player who kept his cards hidden and who surrounded himself with loyalists and outsiders, a rogue politician who could upstage the Imperial State’s agenda by private diplomacy (opening relations with China) or expanding wars of choice (the invasion of Cambodia).

    Nixon’s cabinet was well-stocked with Establishment pros, but they were largely figureheads when it came to the bold private diplomatic moves Nixon favored. In other words, Nixon was the Imperial State’s nightmare president.

    Just to show that the Imperial State plays no favorites in party affiliations, the State and its media organs also hated Jimmy Carter, another independent who wandered outside the “recommended guidelines” and had to be destroyed via endless mockery and the undermining of his initiatives.

    (Maintaining the circus entertainment of party politics is a core function of the mass media.)

    The Imperial State was deeply distrustful of Reagan, hence the constant media mockery and the attempt to unseat him via the Iran-Contra Affair. But Reagan was smart enough to surround himself with insiders (Cap Weinberger, James Baker et al.) and popular enough to fend off the constant media attacks, much to the media’s intense frustration (hence their mocking description of Reagan as the “Teflon president.” How dare he survive our campaign to undermine and destroy him!)

    Bush II was no Bush I, but he followed orders and never strayed from the “recommended guidelines.” The same can be said of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, telegenic communicators in the Kennedy mold.

    Needless to say, the Imperial State and its media organs loathe Trump, the loosest cannon imaginable. Hillary Clinton had proven herself a reliable water carrier for the Imperial State, and so her election was elaborately planned and staged: potentially loose cannon Bernie Sanders was shivved in the primaries by the Democratic Party, and the champagne was chilled for Hillary’s victory.

    Alas, the party was crashed in a most unforgivable fashion, and the Imperial State’s war on Trump has been unremitting and ham-handedly obvious.

    Democracy is the coat of paint applied for PR purposes to the Imperial State. “Democracy” is only tolerated if it follows the approved script. The Republic is good PR, but the Empire makes the rules and the scripts that elected officials follow, and woe to anyone who wins an election they were supposed to lose or who strays too far from the “recommended guidelines.” (Imperial enemies must remain enemies until the Empire decides otherwise.)

    Democracy has always been a “problem” for the Imperial State to manage, but now it is a hindrance to Imperial pretensions and power that is setting up an existential crisis unlike any other in American history.

    *  *  *

    Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 ebook, $12 print, $13.08 audiobook): Read the first section for free in PDF format. My new mystery The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake is a ridiculously affordable $1.29 (Kindle) or $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF). My book Money and Work Unchained is now $6.95 for the Kindle ebook and $15 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. New benefit for subscribers/patrons: a monthly Q&A where I respond to your questions/topics.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 10/07/2019 – 23:45

    Tags

  • Crisis In The Skies: 2019 Airline Bankruptcies On Pace For "Fastest Growth" In History
    Crisis In The Skies: 2019 Airline Bankruptcies On Pace For “Fastest Growth” In History

    As macroeconomic headwinds develop in the global economy, something odd, but not really surprising, is occurring: the bankruptcy rate for airliners across the world is exploding, at a pace never seen before, reported Reuters, citing a new report from the International Bureau of Aviation (IBA). 

    Airline bankruptcies generally start to gain pace right before an economic downturn, and during a recession, which means the latest surge in bankruptcies, from companies like India’s Jet Airways, British travel group Thomas Cook and Avianca of Brazil, suggests 2020 could be a disastrous year for the global economy. 

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    IBA states, “2019 has seen the fastest growth in airline failure in history,” with about 17 carriers filing for bankruptcy protection as of Sept. 

    With peak summer travel season winding down, many airliners are dealing with high debt loads, earnings deterioration, dwindling cash, higher fuel costs, a stronger dollar, and global economic turmoil that is squeezing the most vulnerable carriers. 

    “The last quarter of the year tends to see more failures during the northern hemisphere winter,” Phil Seymour, IBA’s chief executive, told Reuters. 

    Seymour said the strong dollar had severely damaged emerging market carriers. 

    Reuters notes that the series of bankruptcies has helped cash-strapped carriers acquire planes and airport slots at heavily discounted prices. 

    France’s Aigle Azur and XL Airways, Germania, Flybmi, and Adria of Slovenia, are some of the carriers that filed for bankruptcy this week. 

    With the Boeing 737 MAX fleet grounded, cash-strapped carriers have been exploring substitutes, and it’s the bankrupted carriers’ fleets that those companies are seeking to acquire. 

    Irish low-cost carrier Ryanair has been dealing with financial distress tied to the grounding of the MAX. The carrier decided to acquire Airbus A-320s that were previously leased by bankrupted Thomas Cook, as a substitute for the MAX. 

    “Opportunities crop up out of things like the failure of Thomas Cook,” Ryanair group CEO Michael O’Leary told Reuters. 

    “We’re talking to a number of the leasing companies about taking some of those Airbus aircraft and putting them into Lauda next summer,” he said.

    And judging by the Reuters Global Airline Index, the industry has been in a downturn since the start of 2018.

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    The Reuters Global Airline Index topped out in late 4Q17, several months before JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI peaked at the beginning of 1Q18. 

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    With a global economy expected to weaken through year-end, more airline carriers will likely file for bankruptcy protection. Just imagine what will happen to the industry if a worldwide trade recession starts next year.

     


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 10/07/2019 – 23:25

  • How Washington's Food Subsidies Have Helped Make Americans Fat And Sick
    How Washington’s Food Subsidies Have Helped Make Americans Fat And Sick

    Via Ammo.com,

    Farm subsidies are perhaps the ultimate, but secret, third rail of American politics. While entitlements are discussed out in the open, farm subsidies are rarely talked about – even though they are the most expensive subsidy Washington doles out.

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    All told, the U.S. government spends $20 billion annually on farm subsidies, with approximately 39 percent of all farms receiving some sort of subsidy. For comparison, the oil industry gets about $4.6 billion annually and annual housing subsidies total another $15 billion. A significant portion of this $20 billion goes not to your local family farm, but to Big Aggie.

    (Note that this $20 billion annual farm subsidy figure doesn’t take into account the 30+ years of ethanol subsidies to the corn industry nor export subsidies to U.S. farmers issued by the USDA.)

    The government never properly explains why this is. Certainly small farmers are growing their crops at enormous risk. However, it’s not clear that agriculture is any different than other high-risk industries – especially because the United States is blessed with some of the most fertile farmland in the world, and a highly skilled labor force.

    Subsidies don’t just cost taxpayers, an expense that might properly be justified by showing a return on investment. Subsidies also provide powerful disincentives against innovation, as well as cost effectiveness and diversification of land use.

    There is also a strong case to be made that farm subsidies are a major driver of the obesity and cancer epidemic in the United States. Every time Washington interferes in the private sector, they are picking winners and losers. The winners chosen are companies producing food that’s high in calories and low in nutritional density – and that helps make Americans sick and fat, because it distorts what food is available at what price.

    While President Trump has sometimes discussed reducing farm subsidies, the solution to the problem is much more radical – the total elimination of all farm subsidies from the federal budget.

    Food Subsidies in the United States

    There have long been federal programs in the United States propping up the agricultural sector. For example, the Morrill Act of 1862 established land-grant universities with a focus on agricultural education. The Smith-Lever Act of 1914 similarly provided funding for agricultural education.

    The first program similar to the farm subsidies of today was the Federal Farm Loan Act of 1916. This still exists in the form of the Farm Credit System, which currently holds $280 billion in assets. This Act came out of a study done by progressive Republican President Theodore Roosevelt. At this time, rural Americans made up the bulk of the United States’ population.

    The Act allowed farmers to borrow 50 percent of the value of their land and 20 percent of the value of their improvements. Loans were available between $100 and $10,000 and amortized between five and 40 years. It was intended to provide poor farmers with an alternative source of credit from large banks. The successor of this Act, the Farm Credit System, currently provides approximately a third of the credit in rural America.

    The Great Depression, the New Deal and Farm Subsidies

    As with many other aspects of American economic life, farming changed with the advent of the Great Depression and the New Deal, which, at least it was argued, sought to minimize the impact of the worst parts of the Depression.

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    The Agricultural Marketing Act of 1929 was passed on the watch of Republican President Herbert Hoover, widely blamed for the Depression and maligned as having “done nothing” to protect Americans from it. This Act created the Federal Farm Board, which was itself a modification of the Federal Farm Loan Board.

    Hoover believed that he could halt the collapse of agricultural prices by buying, selling and storing surplus grains. Another method to prevent the collapse was to lend to farmers on generous terms. Farmers used the loans to purchase seed and feed. This was particularly important in the South, where farmers were just getting over a drought.

    This had a very predictable effect: Farmers began raising more crops than they knew they could sell. They knew the government would buy whatever they produced, and the bill contained no production limit. Deflation was not countered and the Depression worsened for American farmers. The federal government spent $500 million before the program was abolished in 1933.

    The real expansion of federal subsidies for the American farmer began under President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Programs enacted under FDR’s New Deal included price supports for commodities, regulations on the supply of farm commodities, barriers to prevent importation of farm commodities, and crop insurance programs. These programs, while modified and greatly expanded, form the basis of current federal farm policy. There is no other way to describe this than central planning.

    The first major program passed by FDR as part of the New Deal was the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933. This was the somewhat infamous program that had the government paying farmers to not plant crops, to dump out milk and the like when people were going hungry in the streets. Not only did it look bad, it was also declared unconstitutional in 1936, in the United States v. Butler case, on the grounds that the Constitution made agricultural regulations a state matter. This was in the ancient days, when the Supreme Court declared acts unconstitutional when the Constitution did not authorize them to do so.

    The first replacement was the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act of 1936. This paid farmers to plant fewer crops on the basis that it was preventing topsoil erosion. A more straightforward replacement, the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938, preserved many of the earlier provisions of its 1933 cousin, and was passed at a time when the Supreme Court was more amenable to the wishes of President Roosevelt following his proposed threat to pack the court with up to 15 judges. This new version of the Agricultural Adjustment Act mandated price supports for broad sections of American agriculture. When challenged in court, the Supreme Court ultimately upheld it under (what else) the commerce clause.

    Commodity price and income supports are now a staple in the federal budget. But what does the money go toward?

    Where Do Farm Subsidies Go?

    Farm subsidies are often painted as the last refuge of the American small farmer. But even a close examination of where farm subsidies go reveals that nothing could be further from the truth. The 10 largest recipients of aid receive between $14 million and $23.7 million, averaging $18.2 million, or approximately $1.8 million per year for what are giant agricultural combines. Part of this is a deliberate result of United States agricultural policy – after the Second World War, farmers were told to “get big or get out.”

    Let’s look at some startling facts about U.S. farm subsidies:

    • Over 6,000 farming companies and combines received more than $1 million federal aid in the years between 2008 and 2018.

    • This constituted a total of over $11 billion in this 10-year period.

    • 18 different farming entities received over $10 million.

    • Over $626 million went to urban areas – i.e., places with over 250,000 residents and precisely zero farms.

    • The five most populated cities in America (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Philadelphia) received a collective $18 million in farm subsidies. 25 percent of all subsidies went to someone receiving over $250,000 in subsidies.

    • The 150 most affluent zip codes in America received $5 million in subsidies in 2017 alone.

    • What’s more, the government is still paying farmers to not farm.

    • 12 members of Congress received as much as $637,059 in farm subsidies in 2017.

    All of this adds up to underscore the true nature of America’s food subsidy system: It’s a massive welfare program directed at the rich and affluent, which artificially distorts food prices for everyone.

    Perhaps worst of all, the massive farm subsidies aren’t keeping people out of debt. American farmer debt currently stands at $409 billion. Wheat is receiving $45.9 billion in subsidies while corn is getting $112 billion. Farmers received $12 billion in aid from the Trump Administration to help hedge against potential losses from the trade war with China. While it’s difficult to say to what extent any of this is vote-buying, it is worth noting that Iowa is the second-largest recipient of USDA subsidies, only slightly behind Texas.

    But if the story here were simply one of government largesse, this would be a very short article, indeed. The story is much deeper, and goes to the heart of health and wellness in the United States.

    Earl Butz: Father of the Modern Food Subsidy System

    The subsidy system might have had its problems, but the system really went off the rails with the advent of Earl Butz as Secretary of Agriculture under both President Richard Nixon and President Gerald Ford. He was the one who pioneered the fundamental change in farm subsidies. No longer would farmers be paid to take fields out of production. Instead they would be paid for producing absolutely insane amounts of corn.

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    He was the man who coined the term “get big or get out.” He also urged farmers to use every available square inch of land – to plant “from fencepost to fencepost.” This change in policy had a dramatic impact on the world of American agriculture. Small family farms were crushed and big agribusiness became the norm rather than the exception.

    Part of the change was due to the high cost of food during the early 1970s. The Nixon Administration (and thus, Butz) were taking heat over soaring food prices. Thus, Butz decided to switch from paying people not to grow food to paying them to grow it. He brokered the sale of 30 million tons of grain to the Soviet Union to keep prices afloat. This was not simply to help farmers, but also to keep them in the Nixon fold – there was a strong fear that they would vote for 1972 Democratic Party candidate George McGovern.

    Butz argues in the documentary King Corn that he provided a valuable service to both the American consumer and the American farmer: both the dramatic reduction of the cost per calorie of food and also the dramatic increase in the efficiency of farming techniques. Indeed, this generation spends less feeding itself than any other in human history.

    Still, as we will discuss in greater detail below, one of the unintended side effects of the newly crowned “King Corn” was the development of high fructose corn syrup – the consequences of which have been a disaster for the American diet.

    The Emblem of USDA: The Food Pyramid

    Everyone is familiar with the food pyramid, the alleged template for a healthy diet produced by the United States Department of Agriculture in 1992. The original Food Pyramid urged Americans to eat as many as 11 servings of carbs per day, in addition to another four servings of fruit (i.e., more carbs). Meat, poultry, eggs, fish, beans and nuts were to total only two to three servings per day between all of them.

    Fats – even healthy ones like avocados and olive oil – were to be “used sparingly.” They were lumped into the same group as sugars and sugary snacks. Healthy plant-based oils like olive or avocado oil were not separated from less healthy processed plant-based oils like canola or corn oil.

    The USDA’s latest version of the Food Pyramid is known as MyPlate, and some insight into how it was created and what purpose it serves can be found with the previous pyramid (the Eating Right Pyramid) and why it was discontinued. The Eating Right Pyramid, the original Food Pyramid, was replaced due to industry concerns from beef and poultry farmers that their product was not being presented properly.

    An alternative to MyPlate is the Healthy Eating Plate from the Harvard School of Public Health. This stresses whole grains, healthy proteins and fats, drinking water and other sugar-free drinks, and adequate amounts of vegetables.

    Harvard School of Public Health Department of Nutrition Chair Walter Willett claimed that, “like the earlier U.S. Department of Agriculture pyramids, MyPlate mixes science with the influence of powerful agricultural interests, which is not the recipe for healthy eating”.

    Dr. Marion Nestle, former chair of the Department of Nutrition, Food Studies, and Public Health at New York University stated that, “There’s a great deal of money at stake in what these guidelines say.”

    A lot of money is in the subsidies themselves, but there is also a trickle-down effect. Cheap corn, for example, has totally changed the world of agriculture and food. Cows never ate corn until farmers started getting money to grow it everywhere. This is what makes the 99-cent hamburger possible. Fish, likewise, are another animal that would never eat corn if left to its own devices, but humans have trained them to eat corn because it is arguably the world’s cheapest and most plentiful food source – not due to naturally occuring market forces, but because of corn subsidies.

    If you’re horrified by factory farming – the penning in of tons of cows, pigs and other animals in tiny spaces – you can lay the blame right at the feet of farm subsidies. Such practices are simply not economically viable or sustainable without massive subsidies or corn. Ethanol is another creation of the agriculture-industrial complex.

    The bottom line is that the USDA Food Pyramid and its antecedents and successors have more to do with feeding money into the agricultural system – where the subsidies are – than it does with teaching Americans proper nutrition.

    Corn Subsidies Are a Killer

    Corn subsidies are big business in the United States, and this can be seen in the explosion of a simple ingredient now found in everything from sodapop to hot dogs – high fructose corn syrup, also known as HFCS.

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    Between the development of HFCS in 1970 and 1990, the consumption of HFCS skyrocketed by 1,000 percent. It’s not just that HFCS is in just about everything. It’s also that HFCS makes a number of things possible that otherwise wouldn’t be – think the now ubiquitous 99-cent three-liter bottle of sodapop available at every big-box supermarket around the country.

    The New York Times reported that junk food is the largest source of calories in the United States. The top 10 calorie sources in the United States are, according to Harvard Medical School:

    • Grain desserts (everything from cake to granola bars)

    • Bread

    • Chicken

    • Sodapop, energy drinks and sports drinks

    • Pizza

    • Alcohol

    • Pasta

    • Mexican food

    • Beef

    • Dairy-based desserts

    This means that at least four out of the 10 top calorie sources in the American diet are junk food. Most of them are based on ingredients from highly subsidized food groups like corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice. Barely any subsidies exist for fruit and vegetables, the foods that Americans are ostensibly supposed to fill half of their plates with.

    A study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, published in JAMA Internal Medicine in August 2016, was able to document a connection between heavily subsidized food sources and obesity. The study found that those subsisting on a diet of heavily subsidized foods were 37 percent more likely to be obese than those who did not. Belly fat, abnormal cholesterol, and high blood sugar levels were likewise linked to a diet heavy in foods subsidized by the federal government.

    Fruits and vegetables are called, in a typical act of government doublespeak, “specialty crops.” They claim approximately 75 percent of all farmland in the United States, but net a scant 14 percent of all subsidies. These are primarily grown by small family farmers. Some subsidy bills stipulate that farms receiving subsidies for commodity crops like corn and wheat cannot grow “specialty crops.”

    The Coming Tax on Meat

    Meat, in particular red meat, has long been maligned as a source of unhealthy calories. However, the paleo movement, the low-carb movement, and the extreme carnivore diet movement have all championed meat, in particular red meat, as the healthiest thing you can possibly eat. Most health conscious people these days are, at the very least, avoiding simple sugars and opting for healthy complex carbohydrates in their diet, if not drastically reducing the number of calories they get from carbs.

    Whether or not carbs are good for you or not is a source of continued debate, and largely centers around which carbs and how much of them. Likewise, dairy is enjoying a renaissance among people who tout the health benefits of whole milk and raw milk.

    Taxing meat in the manner of cigarettes and sugar, however, is becoming an increasingly mainstream idea. The proposal is linked not just to a desire to exert even more control over what Americans eat, but also with (of course) carbon emissions and saving the environment.

    Beyond the simple fact that a tax on meat would be yet another example of government overreach, there are other problems with a meat tax. It is also based on a subjective and dubious interpretation of the effects of meat on both the environment and on personal health. Such a tax would, like existing taxes on sugar and tobacco products, disproportionately impact the poorest Americans.

    Given the poor job that the United States Department of Agriculture has done with attempting to dictate what people eat with the Food Pyramid, it’s unlikely that they’re going to hit paydirt with a meat tax.

    Subsidies Cause Cancer

    The consequences of subsidies are far reaching when one considers the correlation with obesity. While tobacco use is responsible for one-third of all cancer cases, obesity is considered responsible for another third. Put more directly, there is a health epidemic in the United States similar to tobacco, but rather than a public campaign against it, it’s subsidized by the federal government.

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    This is what led a presidential report commission on cancer to attack food subsidies in much the same way that it did tobacco.

    There is another aspect to subsidizing unhealthy food, which will become increasingly expensive: healthcare. As the federal government creeps more into healthcare, the more you and other taxpayers will be subsidizing (again) by paying for treatments for those who are clinically obese, diabetic, or otherwise unhealthy from the nutrient-poor foods promoted by the United States government through its subsidies. This creates a maniac cycle, whereby the federal government subsidizes foods that make people sick and fat, then subsidizes the healthcare of sick and fat people. In all likelihood, this will all be paid for disproportionately by people who are neither sick nor fat.

    It’s important to point out that more government intervention, in the form of taxation or subsidizing “healthy” (according to some) foods, is not the answer – it’s the problem. Subsidies and other government handouts are invariably shaped by those with the most political influence. The ultimate programs always bear little resemblance to how they are touting through what are effectively PR campaigns in the nominally independent media.

    In the age of digital media, it has never been easier for the average person to learn what they need to know about feeding themselves and their family in the most healthy way possible. Government subsidies are not required for this and, as we have shown, have very much the opposite impact on public health. It is time for a revolution in the world of food subsidies – one of drastic reduction and ultimately the elimination of these wasteful and counterproductive programs.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 10/07/2019 – 23:05

  • Bizarre: Colombian Navy Rescues Shipwrecked Smuggling Suspects Found Floating On Cocaine Bales
    Bizarre: Colombian Navy Rescues Shipwrecked Smuggling Suspects Found Floating On Cocaine Bales

    In a bizarre story reported by the Colombian Navy, personnel from the Colombian Navy and Coast Guard found drug smugglers clinging to cocaine bales in shark-infested Pacific Ocean waters after their vessel was hit by a rogue wave last week.

    The incident occurred in the waters near Tumaco in Colombia, about 30 nautical miles from shore, said Captain Jorge Maldonado of Colombia’s Task Force Against Drug Trafficking.

    Maldonado said navy and coast guard personnel were conducting surveillance and maritime control operations when they discovered the shipwreck. He said the smugglers were clinging onto cocaine hydrochloride bales for at least seven hours. In total, the navy and coast guard recovered 2,789 lbs of cocaine. 

    “The coastguard arrived, and these three people were floating on a material that by its characteristics resembled drugs,” Maldonado said.

    Footage of the rescue was posted on the official Twitter account of the Colombian Navy. Several pictures show three men floating in the water, surrounded by black bales of cocaine. Navy personnel can be seen tossing in life preserves to the smugglers. The men and the cocaine were eventually extracted from the water and hauled to a support base on land for further analysis.

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    Maldonado said the floating bales tested positive for cocaine hydrochloride.

    He said the smugglers were en route to Central America. It’s likely, he said, the men left the Port of Tumaco, which is one of the primary exit points of cocaine from the country.

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    The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNDOC) indicated in a 2018 report that, Colombia is the top producer of cocaine in the world.

    A majority of the cocaine is smuggled by boat to the US. 

    The UNDOC report also said Colombia’s 2018 cocaine output hit record highs as demand from the US soared.

    Back in July, we reported on a container ship that had around $1 billion worth of cocaine hidden in containers at a Philadelphia port after having stopped in Colombia. We also learned the vessel, the MSC Gayane, is owned by JP Morgan, was seized by US authorities. 

    And as long as stocks blast to new highs, partly funded by endless stock buybacks and easy money policies by the Federal Reserve, cocaine demand will continue to soar on Wall Street, giving Colombian drug cartels more of a reason to continue boosting output.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 10/07/2019 – 22:45

  • "Paper Money Systems Have Always Wound-Up With Collapse And Chaos", Buffett Senior
    “Paper Money Systems Have Always Wound-Up With Collapse And Chaos”, Buffett Senior

    Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

    Warren Buffett, despite his extraordinary investment success, has a rather famous and long-standing love/hate relationship with precious metals.

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    Maybe it started with his dad – Congressman Howard Buffett of Nebraska – who, as a staunch advocate for the gold standard, argued to his colleagues on Capitol Hill that “paper money systems have always wound up with collapse and economic chaos.”

    Warren himself acquired a record-setting 128 million ounces of silver back in the late 1990s… which he later sold at a profit in the early 2000s.

    But to listen to him talk about precious metals these days, he’s always negative.

    Buffett often quips that if you took the world’s entire supply of gold and melted it together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet (~21 meters) per side and be worth around $9 trillion.

    With that same $9 trillion, you could buy every share of Apple, Disney, Google, Microsoft, JP Morgan, Exxon Mobil, all the farmland in the United States, all the developable land in Manhattan, and still have more than a trillion dollars left over.

    This is Buffett’s central argument: gold doesn’t produce anything. So it’s much better to invest in a productive asset like a business, farmland, etc.

    Sure, I’d rather own a profitable, productive asset than a pile of metal.

    But Buffett is completely wrong to compare gold to productive assets… they’re apples and oranges.

    Gold isn’t an ‘investment’. It’s an insurance policy against paper currencies will lose value over time. So a MUCH better comparison for gold is CASH.

    Using Buffett’s same thought experiment, would an investor with $9 trillion rather have all that money sitting in a bank earning 0%? Or buy all the productive assets I mentioned above?

    Clearly it’s more attractive to own productive assets than cash sitting in a bank.

    Now, most people obviously don’t have hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars to invest.

    But foreign governments, pension funds, central banks, and Sovereign Wealth Funds do.

    And if it were so easy to simply buy up all the farmland in the United States, or every share of Disney, etc. they would have done it already.

    But life isn’t so black and white. Negotiating and closing a very large investment deal takes a lot of time and hard work.

    Buffett himself understands this. That’s why he made only ONE major acquisition in 2017 (a chain of gas stations called Pilot Flying J) and ZERO in 2018.

    Buffett’s company has $700 billion in assets and over $100 billion in cash; it’s extremely difficult to find enough large, credible deals to invest that much capital.

    And large institutions like central banks and foreign governments have the same problem.

    I have friends who are senior executives at some of these institutions who manage hundreds of billions of dollars; they’re constantly on the lookout for sensible deals where they can invest billions of dollars at a time.

    But those opportunities are rare. And in the meantime, they need to park the money somewhere.

    Just like Warren Buffett’s father, many of these institutional managers understand that paper money loses value over time.

    Especially now, in places like Europe and Japan, interest rates are actually NEGATIVE. And any large fund that has a mountain of euros or yen is bleeding money due to negative yields.

    So let’s go back to Buffett’s analogy:

    Imagine you’re a large Sovereign Wealth Fund with $500 billion in cash.

    Of course you’re searching for high quality, productive assets that you can acquire. But you know it’s going to take 10-15 years to fully invest that capital.

    So in the meantime, do you:

    (A) keep the $500 billion in a paper currency that has a 100+ year track record of losing value and being abused as a political prop?

    Or

    (B) keep at least a portion of the investment capital in gold– an asset with a 5,000+ year history of maintaining its value?

    For large institutions, Option B is extremely compelling.

    And THAT’S what has been primarily driving gold prices over the past year.

    Central Banks and foreign governments like China, Russia, Turkey, Qatar, Colombia, etc. have been loading up on gold because it’s a better, safer, long-term alternative to holding dollars and euros.

    As a result, the price has risen.

    Clearly they’re still holding plenty of dollars (and euros). But they’re increasingly diversifying their reserves.

    They can see that the US government will continue having $1+ trillion deficits. They can see that the Federal Reserve will continue debasing the currency with interest rate cuts…

    (and the European Central Bank recently made interest rates even MORE negative.)

    They can see that diplomatic and trade relations with the US are strained.

    So it would be foolish for a foreign government to keep 100% of its reserve assets denominated in US dollars.

    They can also see that gold is practically the ONLY asset that isn’t at an all-time high.

    Almost ever major stock market, property market, and bond market around the world is at/near an all-time high.

    Gold has had a good run lately. But its price (in US dollars) would still need to rise another 25% before surpassing its previous all-time high.

    This is what’s likely to keep fueling demand for gold: very large sovereign wealth funds and central banks don’t have a lot of options, and gold is one of the only assets that makes sense for them.

    This will likely continue to be the case.

    It’s worth noting that, even though gold is not a ‘productive asset’, the price of gold over the past 20 years has beaten the stock market, including Warren Buffett.

    From September 1999 through September 2019, the S&P 500 returned a solid 229%, including dividends. And the stock price of Buffett’s company (Berkshire Hathaway) is up an astonishing 536% over the same period. But the price of gold has surpassed even Buffett, returning 591%.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 10/07/2019 – 22:25

  • Watch Paralyzed Man Walk Thanks To Brain-Controlled Exoskeleton Suit
    Watch Paralyzed Man Walk Thanks To Brain-Controlled Exoskeleton Suit

    A paralyzed man has spent nearly two years testing a mind-controlled robotic suit. Now French researchers, who are responsible for building the exoskeleton, have published a new report documenting the proof-of-concept demonstration

    Researchers at the University of Grenoble, located in southeastern France, published the latest results of the suit and a video last week. 

    The suit was operated by a 30-year-old man, only identified as Thibault. He was able to control the suit with his brain, moving the suit forward while he was strapped to the exterior of it.  

    Thibault told BBC that his latest robotic walk was like being “the first man on the moon.” The tests were held in a heavily secured lab at Clinatec and the University of Grenoble. 

    The robotic suit is controlled by two implants that were surgically placed in Thibault’s head. The implants are wireless, able to beam brain activity to a nearby computer where artificial intelligence converts the signals into instructions for the exoskeleton. 

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    Thibault has been paralyzed for four years. He’s been training with the researchers for two years, at several labs to control the 140-pound exoskeleton suit.

    Researchers first trained an algorithm to interpret brain signals and convert them into commands for the suit. Thibault was able to play a game similar to Pong, while the algorithm learned his brain activity and turned the signals into commands to control a digital paddle where he hit a ball. The training started as early as 1H17 and went on for at least two years. 

    Once the algorithm learned Thibault’s brain commands, researchers strapped him to mechanical exoskeleton with 14 moveable joints. He first used the arms of the machine to tap levers, and it was only until recently, he was able to walk the machine forward. 

    As shown in the video below, Thibault’s exoskeleton suit was suspended with cables from the ceiling during the test. 

    Researchers have said the technology will be refined in the coming years and could be a replacement for wheelchairs in the next decade. But within the next 5-years, it’s likely the technology will be used to control wheelchairs. 

    “Our findings could move us a step closer to helping tetraplegic patients to drive computers using brain signals alone, perhaps starting with driving wheelchairs using brain activity instead of joysticks and progressing to developing an exoskeleton for increased mobility,” Professor Stephan Chabardes, a neurosurgeon from the CHU of Grenoble-Alpes, said.

    And it’s almost guaranteed that when millennials start retiring in 2045-2055, mind-controlled robotic suits will be fully matured and have already entered series production decades before. Can you imagine, elderly millennials in exoskeleton suits walking to the corner store for some avocado toast?


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 10/07/2019 – 22:05

  • China Services PMI Tumbles To 7-Month Lows
    China Services PMI Tumbles To 7-Month Lows

    With China coming back from Golden Week celebrations, all eyes are on PMI data (expected to be flat from August) as a sign that things are not getting any worse ahead of this week’s trade negotiations in Washington.

    This is the last PMI print for September (after a mixed bag from official data across services and manufacturing):

    • China Official Manufacturing PMI small rise to 49.8

    • China Official Non-Manufacturing small drop to 53.7 (lowest since Nov 2018)

    • China Caixin Manufacturing notable rebound to 51.4 (highest since Feb 2018)

    • China Caixin Non-Manufacturing dropped to 51.3 (lowest since Feb 2019)

    The weakness is somewhat surprising given the position China might want to portray during this week’s negotiations.

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    Source: Bloomberg

    For the first time since Sept 2017, Services PMI is weaker than Manufacturing.

    The level of positive sentiment in the manufacturing sector was little-changed from August, while optimism in the service sector slipped to its lowest since May. In both cases, expectations were among the lowest seen in the series history.

    Commenting on the China General Services PMI data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:

    “The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index dipped to 51.3 in September from 52.1 in the previous month, the lowest reading in seven months.

    1) Among the gauges included in the survey, the one for new business rose further, hitting the highest point since January 2018 and reflecting stable demand in the services sector. The increase was partly driven by new product launches. The gauge for new export business continued to drop, reflecting that growth in new business was mainly driven by domestic demand.

    2) The employment measure increased significantly, reaching a level unseen since January 2017. The increase in employment was linked to growth in new orders.

    3) The measure for input prices increased to the highest in a year, mainly driven by rising costs for labor, fuel and raw materials. However, the gauge for prices charged by service providers dipped marginally, indicating fierce competition. The gauge for business expectations dropped as rising costs restrained company confidence. “

    China’s notable credit impulse recovery is perhaps helping overall as China’s Composite PMI rises for the third month in a row…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    The Caixin China Composite Output Index increased to 51.9 in September from 51.6 in August, mainly driven by strengthened growth in the manufacturing sector. The gauge for new orders increased, hitting the highest level since February 2018. Employment increased at the fastest pace since January 2013, driven by the service sector. Backlogs of work had not expanded this quickly since April 2018. The pressure on companies from rising costs was great and business confidence dipped further.

    China’s economy showed signs of marginal recovery in September, as the labor market improved and domestic demand increased at a faster pace. However, fluctuations in exchange rates, and rising costs of labor and raw materials increased pressure on companies, which restrained business confidence. Due to previous destocking and capacity-reduction activities, constraints on companies’ production capacity became more severe and backlogs of work increased noticeably, which will help companies restore their investment. After a fast slowdown in previous quarters, China’s economic growth began to show signs of stability.”

    Since China has been closed, US equities have dumped and pumped back to almost unchanged but the Trump administration placed eight Chinese tech companies on a blacklist after the US close today.

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Chinese officials have confirmed that Vice Premier Liu He has departed China for his visit to Washington later in the week (so at least that’s a positive).

    Finally, we note that gold has bounced modestly as the Chinese return from celebrations, fitting with the historical pattern of weakness into and through Golden Week, and strength after.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 10/07/2019 – 21:54

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Today’s News 7th October 2019

  • Battle For The Arctic: Russia To Install New Missile Warning Systems To Monitor New Frontier
    Battle For The Arctic: Russia To Install New Missile Warning Systems To Monitor New Frontier

    In a continuing story from last month, Russia continues to establish military dominance in the Arctic region, where $35 trillion worth of natural resources could be hiding underneath the ocean floor. 

    Two new early warning radar systems will be operational in northern Russia by 2022, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation said, also reported by Sputnik News.

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    The defense Ministry said the Voronezh radar system would be installed in the Komi Republic and the Murmansk region in northern Russia. The radar systems are expected to become operational by 2022, will monitor Arctic airspace for ballistic missile attacks, and monitor aircraft in the region.

    “Work continues on the construction of new radar stations for the missile early warning network in the Komi Republic and the Murmansk region. These works are planned to be completed in 2022,” the ministry said.

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    The radar systems have a range of 3,700 miles, enough distance to monitor planes in parts of Alaska. 

    Russia already has seven Voronezh radar systems in operation. By 2022, there could be as many as 9 to 11 across the country.

    The first Voronezh system was constructed in Lekhtusi near St Petersburg in 2005 and was declared “combat ready” in 2012.

    Here’s a list of the current operational Voronezh systems, along with ones that are in development.

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    Last month, we reported that the Russian Northern Fleet deployed a new S-400 Triumph system on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Arctic.

    Russia has been aggressively expanding its military presence in the Arctic in the last several years. It has also been increasing exploration activities in the region, such as oil and gas and mineral extraction.

    Washington has widely criticized Moscow for its increased presence in the Arctic.

    Responding to criticism, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow isn’t intimidating anyone, noting that increased defense capabilities in the Arctic are to protect its assets.

    Russia and China are establishing the “Polar Silk Road” in the Arctic as warming temperatures give way to new shipping lanes and economic opportunities.

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    The Arctic is home to at least 20-25% of the world’s untapped fossil-fuel resources, along with minerals, including gold, silver, diamond, copper, titanium, graphite, uranium, and other rare earth minerals.

    Russia is aggressively militarizing the Arctic ahead of the next global military conflict that could involve countries fighting over Arctic resources. The first country to secure dominance in the Arctic could be the next global superpower.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 10/07/2019 – 02:45

  • Who's Afraid Of Scandinavia's Crime Statistics?
    Who’s Afraid Of Scandinavia’s Crime Statistics?

    Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

    In Sweden, discussing who is behind the current crime epidemic in the country has long been taboo. Such a statistic has only been published twice by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (BRÅ), in 1996 and in 2005. In 2005, when BRÅ published its last report on the subject, “Crime among people born in Sweden and abroad,” it contained the following note:

    “Critics have argued that new results can be inflated, taken out of context and misinterpreted and lead to reinforcing ‘us and them’ thinking. There is every reason to take such risks seriously. However, BRÅ’s assessment is… that a knowledge-based picture of immigrant crime is better than one based on guesses and personal perceptions. The absence of current facts about the crime among the foreign-born and their children facilitates the creation and consolidation of myths. If crime is a problem in certain groups of the foreign-born, then the problems do not disappear unless you highlight them and speak openly about them. A correct picture of the extent and development of the problems should instead be the best basis for analyzing conditions and improving the ability of all residents to function well in Sweden, regardless of ethnic origin.”

    Back then, apparently, the authorities still appreciated facts.

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    Twelve years later, in January 2017, however, Minister of Justice Morgan Johansson flatly refused to publish statistics about the ethnic origins of criminals in Sweden. According to Johansson:

    “[Studies] have been done both in Sweden in the past, and there are countless international studies that all show much the same thing: That minority groups are often overrepresented in crime statistics, but when you remove socio-economic factors, it [the overrepresentation] almost completely disappears. So the political conclusions that I need to make, I can already make with existing international and Swedish studies.”

    Johansson, who in addition to being Minister of Justice also serves as Minister for Migration and Asylum Policy, was not alone in his views. When Swedish Television asked the political parties in the Swedish parliament, the majority said that they did not think such a statistic was needed.

    This summer, however, in the continued absence of any forthcoming public statistics on such an extremely important public issue, a private foundation, Det Goda Samhället (“The Good Society”) took it upon itself to produce these statistics in a new report, Invandring och brottslighet – ett trettioårsperspektiv (“Immigration and crime – a thirty-year perspective”). All the raw data in it were ordered from and supplied by BRÅ. The raw data from BRÅ can be accessed here.

    According to the new report by Det Goda Samhället:

    For the first time now, more crimes — in absolute terms — are committed by persons of foreign background than by persons of Swedish origin… The most crime-prone population subgroup are people born [in Sweden] to two foreign-born parents.”

    The report concludes:

    In the more than thirty years that the surveys cover, one tendency is clearer than all others, namely that the proportion of the total amount of crimes committed by persons with a foreign background is steadily increasing… During the first of the investigated periods, 1985-1989, persons with a foreign background accounted for 31 percent of all crimes. During the period 2013-2017, the figure had risen to 58 percent. Thus, people of Swedish origin now account for less than half, 42 per cent, of the total crime in Sweden, despite constituting 67 per cent of the population surveyed.”

    In 1996, in its first report on the issue, BRÅ disclosed (p. 40) that, “The general picture from foreign studies of immigrants’ children’s crime is that they have a higher crime rate than first-generation immigrants. That is not the case in Sweden”. According to the new report, it is the case now, and that is perhaps the greatest indictment against Swedish integration policies of the past 30 years: the policies clearly do not work.

    Another notable conclusion of the report is the increase in crimes committed by foreign-born non-registered persons in Sweden — these include illegal immigrants, EU citizens and tourists. The crimes this group has committed have increased from 3% in the period 1985-89 to 13% in 2013-17.

    The report has largely been ignored by the Swedish press and political echelons, apart from a few exceptions, such as the local newspapers Göteborgs-Posten and Norrköpings Tidningar.

    In Norway, recently, a report about the overrepresentation of immigrants and their descendants in crime statistics was ordered from Statistics Norway, by Fremskrittspartiet (FrP), which forms part of the Norwegian government. “We had known that immigrants are overrepresented in these statistics, but not [by] so much” said FrP immigration policy spokesman Jon Helgheim.

    “For example, if we use the unadjusted figures… Afghans and Somalis are charged five times more for violence and abuse than Norwegians. Adjusted for age and gender, the overrepresentation is almost triple… Most immigrants are not criminals, but when the immigrant population is overrepresented in almost every crime category, then there is a problem that we must dare to talk about”.

    According to Dagbladet, FrP has, for years, been calling for detailed statistics on crimes perpetrated by immigrants and children of immigrants. In 2015, the party commissioned data from Statistics Norway, but the agency refused to compile crime statistics based on immigrants’ country of origin.

    Two years later, Statistics Norway published research showing that immigrants were strongly overrepresented in the crime statistics, but the report was not detailed enough, according to FrP, which ordered a new report, now available. According to Dagbladet, the new statistics “show that immigrants from non-Western countries are overrepresented in 65 out of 80 crime categories. In 2017, 7.1 per cent of Norway’s population were immigrants from a non-western country.”

    According to Dagbladet, the new statistics also show that, “The largest overrepresentation [is] in violence and abuse in close relationships.”

    “Non-Western immigrants and their descendants are charged with family violence eight times as often as the rest of the population. In total, 443 persons were charged per year on average during the period 2015-2017, [and] 35 per cent (155) of those charged were from a non-western country or had a non-Western background. Only half of those charged with abuse in close relationships were what SSB [the statistical bureau] calls the rest of the population… Africa, Asia, Latin America, Oceania except Australia and Europe outside the EU and the EEA are considered non-Western countries.”

    According to Dagbladet, men from the Palestinian Authority and Somalia are charged with violence and abuse three times more often than Norwegian men.

    FrP has been accused by its political opponents of ordering these statistics specifically for municipal elections that took place in Norway on September 9, 2019. Dagbladet asked Helgheim whether using these statistics was “cynical.” Helgheim responded:

    “No, it’s not cynical at all. This is very relevant for the citizens to know something about. It would be a failure of FrP not to do everything we can to inform voters of what are realities and facts. Our opponents constantly criticize us for pulling the immigration card… I can find no explanations other than that those who do not want this to be known also do not want to know about the consequences of immigration to Norway.”

    In Denmark, unlike Sweden and Norway, the publication of such statistics in itself is fairly uncontroversial. The Danish statistical bureau, Statistics Denmark, publishes them as a matter of fact every year and they are publicly available to everyone.

    According to one of the latest such reports, “Immigrants in Denmark in 2018,” as reported by Berlingske Tidende in April:

    “The figures show that crime in 2017 was 60% higher among male immigrants and 234% higher in male non-Western descendants than the entire male population. If one takes into account, for example, that many of the descendants are young, and Statistics Denmark does so in the report, the figures are 44% for immigrants and 145% for descendants, respectively. If further corrected, for both age and income, of immigrants and descendants from non-western countries, the figures are 21% and 108%”.

    As for the nationality of the criminal migrants, Berlingske Tidende reported:

    “At the top of the list are male Lebanese who, as far as [their] descendants are concerned, are almost four times as criminal as average men, when [the figures are] adjusted for age. [That is] sharply followed by male descendants from Somalia, Morocco and Syria. The violence index is 351 for descendants from non-western countries. They are 3.5 times more violent than the population as a whole. Descendants from Lebanon have an index of violent crimes of 668 when corrected for age.”

    Unless Scandinavian political leaders begin actively to engage with the facts that these statistics describe, the problems are only going to become more intractable — to the point where they might not be solvable at all.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 10/07/2019 – 02:00

  • The US-Iran Silent War Is Suddenly Transformed Into An "Iraq Uprising"
    The US-Iran Silent War Is Suddenly Transformed Into An “Iraq Uprising”

    Authored by Elijah Magnier, Middle East based chief international war correspondent for Al Rai Media

    The last four days have shown that the ongoing US-Iran war is acutely affecting the whole region. This is now evident in Iraq where more than 105 people have been killed and thousands wounded in the course of demonstrations that engulfed the capital Baghdad and southern Shia cities including Amara, Nasririyeh, Basrah, Najaf and Karbalaa. Similar demonstrations could erupt in Beirut and other Lebanese cities due to the similarity of economic conditions in the two countries. The critical economic situation in the Middle East offers fertile ground for uprisings that lead to general chaos.

    Iraq has special status due to its position, since the 2003 US occupation of the country, as both an Iranian and as a US ally. Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi up to now has armed himself with article 8 of the constitution, seeking to keep Iraq as a balancing point between all allies and neighboring countries, and to prevent Mesopotamia from becoming a battlefield for conflicts between the US and Iran or Saudi Arabia and Iran.

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    Notwithstanding the efforts of Baghdad officials, the deterioration of the domestic economic situation in Iraq has pushed the country into a situation comparable to that of those Middle Eastern countries who were hit by the so-called “Arab Spring”. 

    Fueled by real grievances including lack of job opportunities and severe corruption, domestic uprisings were manipulated by hostile foreign manipulation for purposes of regime change; these efforts have been ongoing in Syria since 2011. Baghdad believes that foreign and regional countries took advantage of the justified demands of the population to implement their own agenda, with disastrous consequences for the countries in question.

    Sources within the office of the Iraqi Prime Minister said “the recent demonstrations were already planned a couple of months ago. Baghdad was working to try and ease the situation in the country, particularly since the demands of the population are legitimate. The Prime Minister has inherited the corrupt system that has developed since 2003; hundreds of billions of dollars have been diverted into the pockets of corrupt politicians. Moreover, the war on terror used not only all the country’s resources but forced Iraq to borrow billions of dollars for the reconstruction of the security forces and other basic needs.” 

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    “The latest demonstrations were supposed to be peaceful and legitimate because people have the right to express their discontent, concerns and frustration. However, the course of events showed a different objective: 16 members of the security forces were killed along with tens of civilians and many government and party buildings were set on fire and completely destroyed. This sort of behavior has misdirected the real grievances of the population onto a disastrous course: creating chaos in the country. Who benefits from the disarray in Iraq?”

    The unrest in Iraqi cities coincides with an assassination attempt against Iran’s Soleimani. Sources believe that the “assassination attempt against the commander of the Iranian IRGC-Quds Brigade Qassem Soleimani is not a pure coincidence but related to events in Iraq”.

    “Soleimani was in Iraq during the selection of the key leaders of the country. He has a lot of influence, like the Americans who have their own people. If Soleimani is removed, those who may have been behind the recent unrest may think it will create enough confusion in Iraq and Iran, allowing room for a possible coup d’état carried out by military or encouraged by foreign forces, Saudi Arabia and the US in this case. Killing Soleimani, in the minds of foreign actors, could lead to chaos, leading to a reduction of Iranian influence in Iraq”, said the sources.

    The recent decisions of Abdel Mahdi made him extremely unpopular with the US. He has declared Israel responsible for the destruction of the five warehouses of the Iraqi security forces, Hashd al-Shaabi, and the killing of one commander on the Iraqi-Syrian borders. He opened the crossing at al-Qaem between Iraq and Syria to the displeasure of the US embassy in Baghdad, whose officers expressed their discomfort to Iraqi officials. He expressed his willingness to buy the S-400 and other military hardware from Russia.

    Abdel Mahdi agreed with China to reconstruct essential infrastructure in exchange for oil, and gave a $284 million electricity deal to a German rather than an American company. The Iraqi Prime Minister refused to abide by US sanctions and is still buying electricity from Iran and allowing the exchange of commerce that is bringing large amounts of foreign currency and boosting the Iranian economy. And lastly, Abdel Mahdi rejected the “Deal of the Century” proposed by the US: he is trying to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia and therefore is showing his intention to keep away from the US objectives and policies in the Middle East.

    US officials expressed their complete dissatisfaction with Abdel Mahdi’s policy to many Iraqi officials. The Americans consider that their failure to capture Iraq as an avant-garde country against Iran is a victory for Tehran. However, this is not what the Iraqi Prime Minister is aiming at. He is genuinely trying to keep away from the US-Iran war, but is confronted with increasing difficulties.

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    Abdel Mahdi took over governance in Iraq when the economy was at a catastrophic level. He is struggling in his first year of governance even though Iraq is considered to have the fourth largest of the world’s oil reserves. A quarter of Iraq’s over 40 million people live at poverty level.

    The Marjaiya in Najaf intervened to calm down the situation, showing its capacity to control the mob. Its representative in Karbalaa Sayyed Ahmad al-Safi emphasises the importance of fighting corruption and creating an independent committee to put the country back on track. Al-Safi said it was necessary to start serious reforms and asked the Parliament, in particular “the biggest coalition”, to assume its responsibility. 

    The biggest group belongs to Sayyed Moqtada al-Sadr, with 53 MPs. Moqtada declared – contrary to what the Marjaiya hoped – the suspension of his group from the parliament rather than assuming his responsibilities. Moqtada is calling for early elections, an election where he is not expected to gather more than 12-15 MPs. Al-Sadr, who visits Saudi Arabia and Iran for no strategic objective, is trying to ride the horse of grievance so he can take advantage of the just requests of the demonstrators. Moqtada and the other Shia groups who rule the country today, in alliance with Kurds and Sunni minorities, are the ones to respond to the people’s requests, and not hide behind those in the street asking for the end of corruption, for more job opportunities, and improvement of their conditions of life.

    Prime Minister Abdel Mahdi doesn’t have a magic wand; the people can’t wait for very long. Notwithstanding their justified demands, the people were “not alone in the streets. The majority of social media hashtags were Saudi: indicating that Abdel Mahdi’s visits to Saudi Arabia and his mediation between Riyadh and Tehran have not rendered him immune to regime change efforts supported by Saudi,” said the source. Indeed, Iraq’s neighbours gave strong indications to the Prime Minister that Iraq’s relation Iran is the healthiest and the most stable of relations with neighbouring countries. Tehran didn’t conspire against him even if it was the only country whose flag was burned by some demonstrators and reviled in the streets of Baghdad during the last days of unrest.

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    The critical economic situation is making the Middle East vulnerable to unrest. Most countries are suffering due to the US sanctions on Iran and the monstrous financial expenditure on US weapons. US President Donald Trump is trying hard to empty Arab leaders’ pockets and keep Iran as the main scarecrow to drain Gulf finances. The Saudi war on Yemen is also another destabilizing factor in the Middle East, allowing plenty of room for tension and confrontation.

    Iraq seems headed for instability as one aspect of the multidimensional US war on Iran; the US is demanding support and solidarity from Gulf and Arab countries to stand behind its plans. Iraq is not conforming to all US demands. The Iraqi parliament and political parties represent the majority of the population; regime change is therefore unlikely, but neighboring countries and the US will continue to exploit domestic grievances. It is not clear whether Abdel Mahdi will manage to keep Iraq stable. What is clear is that US-Iran tensions are not sparing any country in the Middle East.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 10/06/2019 – 23:40

  • Airport Customs Agent Badgers Journalist; Won't Let Pass Until He Admits To 'Writing Propaganda'
    Airport Customs Agent Badgers Journalist; Won’t Let Pass Until He Admits To ‘Writing Propaganda’

    A journalist for Defense One was badgered by a Customs and Border Protection individual while passing through Dulles International Airport on a return trip from Denmark – forcing the newsman, Ben Watson, to admit to writing ‘propaganda’ before he was allowed to pass. 

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    Of note, Defense One is rated as being “Least Biased” by Media Bias/Fact Check, and publishes “well written, well sourced, and highly factual” articles. 

    Read below for an account of the incident by Defense Ones Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston.

    ***

    A U.S. passport screening official held a Defense One journalist’s passport until he received an affirmative answer to this repeated question: “You write propaganda, right?” 

    The incident took place about 4 p.m. on Thursday at Dulles International Airport. News Editor Ben Watson was returning from an assignment in Denmark when he entered permanent resident reentry aisle No. 17 at Dulles. After the Customs and Border Protection official asked the usual question about undeclared fruit or meat, the interaction took an unusual and unsettling turn.

    Watson recalls the conversation: 

    CBP officer, holding Watson’s passport: “What do you do?”

    Watson: “Journalism.”

    CBP officer: “So you write propaganda, right?”

    Watson: “No.”

    CBP officer: “You’re a journalist?”

    Watson: “Yes.”

    CBP officer: “You write propaganda, right?”

    Watson: “No. I am in journalism. Covering national security. And homeland security. And with many of the same skills I used in the U.S. Army as a public affairs officer. Some would argue that’s propaganda.”

    CBP officer: “You’re a journalist?”

    Watson: “Yes.”

    CBP officer: “You write propaganda, right?”

    Watson waited five seconds. Then: “For the purposes of expediting this conversation, yes.”

    CBP officer, a fourth time: “You write propaganda, right?”

    Watson, again: “For the purposes of expediting this conversation, yes.”

    CBP officer: “Here you go.” 

    At that point, the CBP officer handed back the passport.

    The CBP official’s behavior appeared to violate the spirit, and possibly the letter, of DHS’s internal Directive 0480.1, “Ethics/Standards of Conduct”; DHS Code of Conduct § 102-74.445; and possibly U.S. Customs and Border Protection Directive 51735-013A, “Standards of Conduct.” 

    Watson has filed a civil rights complaint with DHS.

    Update: In an email, a CBP spokesperson said that the agency is aware of and is investigating the “allegation about an officer’s alleged inappropriate conduct at Washington Dulles International airport,” adding that the agency holds its employees accountable and does not tolerate inappropriate comments or behavior. The spokesperson declined to be identified.

    In a separate email, a DHS spokesperson said that the agency’s Civil Rights and Civil Liberties office has “received the information and is reviewing it.” The spokesperson declined to be identified.

    Over the past year, several journalists have reported being harassed and even detained by U.S. customs agents. In February, CBP officials apologized to a BuzzFeed reporter who was aggressively questioned upon entering New York’s JFK Airport. In June, freelance reporter Seth Harp described his hours-long detention by CBP officers in the Austin, Texas, airport. In August, British journalist James Dyer said he was harassed as “fake news” by a CBP agent at Los Angeles International Airport. “He wanted to know if I’d ever worked for CNN or MSNBC or other outlets that are ‘spreading lies to the American people,’ ” he tweeted, per a Washington Post story that links to other instances of CBP harassment of journalists.

    The Post also noted that in April, the United States’ ranking in the annual World Freedom Press Index dropped for a third year in a row. It classified the treatment of journalists in the United States as “problematic,” a first in the 17 years the report has been issued. The report’s authors attributed the decline “to President Trump’s anti-press rhetoric and continuing threats to journalists,” the Post reported at the time. Watson, who writes the D Brief newsletter and produces the Defense One Radio podcast, said that he’d never before encountered a CBP officer who’d tried to extract a statement in this way. And he noted that the incident was particularly striking in the wake of his reporting trip, during which Danish officials had voiced concerns about a global decline in respect for and adherence to a rules-based order, beginning in the United States. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 10/06/2019 – 23:15

  • Pat Buchanan Dares To Ask – Is China The Country Of The Future?
    Pat Buchanan Dares To Ask – Is China The Country Of The Future?

    Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    “Who Lost China?”

    With the fall of the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek, the defeat of his armies and the flight to Formosa, that was the question of the hour in 1949. And no one demanded to know more insistently than the anti-Communist Congressman John F. Kennedy:

    “Whatever share of the responsibility was Roosevelt’s and whatever share was (General George) Marshall’s, the vital interest of the United States in the independent integrity of China was sacrificed, and the foundation was laid for the present tragic situation in the Far East.”

    Tragic indeed was the situation. The most populous nation on earth, for which America had risked and fought a war with the Japanese Empire, had been lost to Stalin’s empire.

    A year after Peking fell to Mao Zedong, Chinese armies stormed into Korea to drive the Americans back from the Yalu River and back across the 38th parallel, threatening to throw them off the Peninsula.

    In the seven decades since October 1949, millions of Chinese have perished in ideological pogroms like the “Great Leap Forward” of the ’50s, and the “Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution” during which President Nixon came to China.

    Yet in terms of national and state power over those 70 years, and especially in the last 30 when America threw open her markets to Chinese goods and Beijing ran up $4 trillion to $5 trillion in trade surpluses with the U.S., a new China arose. It was on display this week in Tiananmen Square.

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    The China of Xi Jinping boasts land- and submarine-based missiles and bombers that provide a strategic deterrent against the United States. Beijing’s conventional forces on land, sea, and in air and space rival any on earth.

    Since Y2K, its economy has swept past that of Italy, France, Britain, Germany and Japan to become the world’s second largest. China is now the world’s premier manufacturing power.

    Yet, under Xi Jinping, the mask of benign giant has slipped and the menacing face of 21st-century China is being revealed, for its people, its neighbors, and the world to see.

    The Uighurs of west China are being forced into re-education camps to be cured of their tribalist, nationalist and Islamic beliefs. Christians are being persecuted. Tibetans are being replaced in their homeland by Han Chinese. The Communist Party’s role and rule as the font of ideological, political and moral truth is being elevated and imposed.

    The Chinese still hold land seized from India 50 years ago. China now claims as sovereign territory virtually all of a South China Sea, which encompasses territorial waters of six nations. It has begun building air, naval and military bases on rocks and reefs belonging to Manila.

    China has warned foreign warships to stay out of the Taiwan Strait and has built up its force on the mainland opposite the island, warning that any move by Taiwan to declare independence would be regarded as an act of war. It claims the Japanese-held Senkaku Islands.

    In its Belt and Road projects to tie China to Central and South Asia and Europe, China has lent billions to build ports, only to take possession of the facilities when local regimes default on their loans.

    But not all is going well for the regime on its 70th birthday.

    The people of Hong Kong, who are surely being cheered by many on the mainland of China, have been protesting for months, demanding the liberty and independence for which American patriots fought in our Revolution, not Mao’s revolution.

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    Nor are the newly prosperous Chinese people fools. They relish the rising power of China and the respect their country commands in the world, but they know it was not Marx, Lenin or Mao who produced their prosperity. It was capitalism. They cannot but be uneasy seeing the freedoms and benefits they enjoy being dissipated in a trade war with the Americans and the new repression issuing from Beijing.

    Among the epochal blunders America has committed since the end of the Cold War, three stand out.

    The first was our disastrous plunge into the Middle East to create regimes oriented to the West.

    The second was the expansion of NATO to the front porch of Russia, driving the largest nation on earth, and one of its most formidable nuclear powers, into the arms of China.

    The third was to throw open America’s markets to Chinese goods on favorable terms, which led to the enrichment and empowerment of a regime whose long-term threat to U.S. interests and American values is as great as was that of the Soviet Union in the Cold War.

    The question for America’s statesmen is how to cope with the rising challenge of China while avoiding a war that would be a calamity for all mankind. Patience, prudence and perseverance commend themselves.

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    But the first necessity is to toss out the ideological liberalism which proclaims that David Ricardo’s free trade dogmatism is truth for all nations at all times and that John Locke’s ideas apply to all cultures and countries.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 10/06/2019 – 22:50

    Tags

  • Frost-Apocalypse Set To Sweep Across US, Could Mark End Of Growing Season
    Frost-Apocalypse Set To Sweep Across US, Could Mark End Of Growing Season

    We are tracking frost and freeze potential US temperature weather maps this weekend that indicate a strong possibility frost-apocalypse is headed for the Pacific, Rocky Mountains, and Midwest regions over the next ten days. This could mean the end of the growing season for many agriculture producing states.

    As shown in the EC Operational maps below, a 32°F contour line in the 5-10 day forecast indicates US frost risks could shift from the Northwest too much of the North Central states, which would officially mark the end of the growing season in those areas if confirmed by mid-month.

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    Andrei Evbuoma, a meteorologist for NOAA National Weather Service, provides further insight into the frost situation in the US, and what he thinks this could mean for grain prices. 

    Frost and freeze watches/warnings hoisted for portions of the north-central and Northeast U.S.; weather outlook turns colder across the northern and central U.S. raising risks for frost/freeze and thus upside potential of prices.

    On the weather front, frost and freeze watches/warnings are in effect for much of North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska, western Minnesota, northwestern Iowa, a large portion of Upstate New York and Vermont, extreme western Massachusetts, and extreme northern Pennsylvania. The frost and freeze warnings are in effect tonight through Friday morning. The freeze watch is in effect for late Friday night through early Saturday morning. The freeze and frost warnings over North Dakota and Minnesota cover a good portion of spring wheat. However, with much of the crop harvested, the impacts should be minimum. The northwestern portions of the corn and soybean belt will be impacted by the frost and freeze Thursday night/Friday morning. The freeze watch covers a very small portion of corn and soybeans that will not really be able to make any difference. Figure 5 below is an image depicting the areas under a freeze/frost watch or warning.

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    The weather pattern over the next 10 days or so can be described as progressive/changeable with bouts of both cool and warm air masses. The pattern will be driven by a couple of strong upper level troughs that will pivot around a pinwheeling parent upper low centered over the Arctic Circle near the Queen Elizabeth Islands. These upper level troughs will be associated with strong surface cold frontal boundaries that will spread across Canada and the Lower 48 bringing in intervals of unseasonably cool air. Upper level ridging will bring warm temperatures in between these upper level troughs.

    Over the next five days, the first upper level trough will eject out of the western U.S. eastward across the northern U.S. This will bring unseasonably cool air across the Northwest U.S. and Northern Rockies late week into the weekend, across the Plains and Midwest U.S. late weekend into early next week, and finally across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast U.S. early to mid next week. By early to mid next week, upper level ridging will build over the Northern Rockies and Plains bringing in warmer-than-normal temperatures before the next upper level trough quickly moves into western Canada from Alaska. Figure 6 below is a map from the 12z GFS ensemble depicting the 1-6 day (October 4-9) temperature pattern.

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    A second upper level trough with cold temperatures from Alaska will be oriented over western/central Canada in the beginning parts of the 6-11 day period. This upper level feature will quickly be moving inbound towards the Lower 48 meaning that the warm-up across the northern, central, and eastern U.S. will be brief. This second upper level trough will not only be stronger than the previous in strength, but will also be larger in size and will have more impact in bringing widespread cooler-than-normal temperatures across the Lower 48. Because this upper level weather feature is forecast to travel further south, unseasonably cool temperatures will encompass the central, southern, and eastern U.S. in the 6-11 day period. The reinforcing shot of cool air coming in behind this second trough will send temperatures as much as 20 degrees below normal across the Northern Rockies by Wednesday. This colder development amongst the forecast models has recently increased prospects of heating demand across the Lower 48. The GFS has been most consistent with this pattern. Figure 7 below is a map from the 12z GFS ensemble depicting the 7-12 day (October 10-15) temperature pattern.

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    Temperatures look to be on the cooler side across the northern U.S. (especially the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S.) and warmer across the southern U.S. (especially the Southwest U.S.) in the 11-16 day time period with the pattern possibly remaining in a variable/changeable state. Figure 8 below is a map from the 12z ECMWF ensemble depicting the 10-15 day (October 12-17) temperature pattern.

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    In terms of precipitation, the heat and dryness have set the stage for rapidly developing drought conditions across the eastern and southern U.S. including the southeastern Midwest. These areas have seen week/week increase in drought/dryness. Looking ahead, the pattern overall will transition into a drier pattern from the prior week. There will be chances for precipitation to come across the central U.S. in association with the upper level troughs/associated surface cold fronts. The first chance will come this upcoming weekend. The second chance will come mid to late next week. Figure 9 is a map from the U.S. Drought Monitor depicting areas of drought or abnormally dry conditions.

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    Figure 10 below is a map showing the seven-day accumulated precipitation forecast (Thursday morning to next Thursday morning) across the Lower 48.

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    Figure 11 is a map from the 06z GEFS depicting a normal to drier-than-normal pattern across much of the country and a wetter-than-normal pattern over parts of the central U.S. in the 2-8 day time frame (October 4-11).

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    Figure 12 is a map from the 12z GEFS depicting a normal to drier-than-normal pattern across much of the country in the 9-15 day time frame (October 11-18).

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    Evbuoma says the cold spell sweeping across agriculture producing states could be bullish for grain prices.

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    He says, “the weather outlook over the next couple of weeks has gotten colder, the risk of damage to crops not yet harvested have increased (particularly across the northern sections of the grain belt). This combined with the fact that China has been purchasing more soybeans means that upside potential is increasing.”

     


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 10/06/2019 – 22:25

    Tags

  • Luongo: Is Trump The Dude To Break The Woke?
    Luongo: Is Trump The Dude To Break The Woke?

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    “I like your style Dude… but do you have to use so many cuss words?”

    “The fuck you talkin’ about?”

    – The Big Lebowski

    When Donald Trump won the 2016 election it was obvious to many, including myself, that he could be what Strauss & Howe called, ‘The Grey Champion’ in their seminal book “The Fourth Turning.”

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    The Grey Champion isn’t perfect. In fact, he’s a strongman. He can be a force for good or evil, depending on the times. At his essence, he is the right person in the right place at the right time to usher in a new era of human society for the next cycle of generations, usually four lasting around 85 years, or one human lifetime.

    Past Grey Champions in the U.S have been FDR and Abraham Lincoln. Neither of these men would be people I would consider having been good for the country or, frankly, the world.

    But they were ideally placed to shepherd and, most importantly, put into effect the changes demanded by the people as the Prophet Generation (Baby Boomers) gives way to the Nomads (Gen X) who hold the fort until the Heroes (Millenials) decide what comes next, for good or ill.

    They were strong enough figures to overcome the enormous forces arrayed against them and, in the end, win out, forcing a new regime into being.

    So, looking back over the near three years of Trump has he lived up to this ideal? I don’t think so for a number of reasons but I do think the potential is still there.

    Trump’s strengths and weaknesses as a political player have been on full display from the beginning. And he’s made a number of errors which have cost him dearly to this point.

    Most of these have to do with foreign policy, which I have outlined in gory detail nearly every day for three years. And it was these deals he’s made on foreign policy, outsourcing it to advisers like H.R. McMaster, John Bolton and James Mattis, to gain time to deal with his domestic enemies that have done the most damage.

    I think Trump now sees the traps set for him and how badly they will boomerang on him this election season. He’s begun changing course on issues like Iran, Syria and, yes, Ukraine.

    And for this he is now being targeted, quite amateurishly, for removal from office. Of this I’m convinced at this point.

    Since Ukraine cuts across so many different narratives of the past few years, going all the way back to 2013 EU accession talks, it is no wonder that President Trump calls to the new Ukrainian President, who isn’t one of ‘our guys’ like Poroshenko was, would be heavily scrutinized.

    Anything that sniffed even vaguely like Presidential overreach would be used against Trump to remove him from office. This is the standard Alinsky tactic of accusing your opponent of what you are guilty of to de-legitimize any information that comes out of the investigation.

    This tactic is nothing new. It’s all they ever do folks, because Trump has already proven he’s immune to Nuts and Sluts.

    And this brings me back to my original point, which is that only Donald Trump has the skills, temperament and lack of shame needed to fight this fight the way he has.

    Comedian Stephen Crowder made this point recently and I think that rant is worth your fifteen minutes.

    It’s nice to see Crowder finally come around and realize what Trump’s true value is to the world. It isn’t his wisdom or his inherent morality. He’s not been sent here by god to save us from the heathen.

    He’s not Orange Jesus, as I pointed out ages ago.

    He’s just the guy with the right set of skills for his time and place. To combat the incessantly woke and the cravenly corrupt you need a guy narcissist without shame. One who will scrap on the battlefields he knows well, the media, and when given an ounce of leverage will push it to its hilt.

    And you need a man ruthless enough to be vindictive.

    Trump tried to be magnanimous to Hillary. She repaid him with bile, deceit and three years of hell. His dipping his toe into Ukraine sent all of Washington into veritable apoplexy. Everyone’s got dirty fingers there be it from the coup on the Maidan, to arms sales, gas deals, false flags and, the big one from Trump’s perspective, RussiaGate.

    Pat Buchanan, at the start of Trump’s presidency, warned us that Trump was not Nixon. Nixon resigned out of shame and for the good of the office and the country. Trump would not go so gently into that good night.

    He was built of different stuff. Right or wrong they would have to drag him out of the Oval Office feet first. And that’s where we are now.

    And that trait alone is what makes him still a potential Grey Champion. Because he can beat this impeachment trap that Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff have set for him if he’s smart and if he has the goods to take down the right people.

    But at some point Trump will have to stop trying to make a deal with these people and act. He will have to stop trying to get them to like him and use his office as it is written in the Constitution and not let weasels like Schiff and Jerry Nadler define it for him.

    If he does that he’ll be The Dude, the man for his time and place. If not, he’ll just be another pretender in a nice suit and his head in a toilet.

    *  *  *

    Join my Patreon to get the kind of analysis that makes sense of the senseless. Install Brave if you want to neuter social media, regain some privacy and support your favorite creators.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 10/06/2019 – 22:00

  • Chinese Farmers Raise Mutant Pigs The Size Of Polar Bears Amid 'Pig Ebola' Crisis
    Chinese Farmers Raise Mutant Pigs The Size Of Polar Bears Amid ‘Pig Ebola’ Crisis

    Amid one of the worst food crises in recent memory, Chinese farmers are reportedly trying to breed larger pigs as the African swine fever – less affectionately known as ‘pig ebola’ – has destroyed over 100 million pigs, between one-third and a half of China’s supply of pigs by various estimates, causing pork prices to explode to levels never seen before.

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    As Beijing scrambles to make up for the lost domestic supply with imports, even desperately waiving tariffs on American pork products in what China’s politicians tried to sell to their population (and Washington) as a “gesture of goodwill”, farmers in southern China have raised a pig that’s as heavy as a polar bear.

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    Once slaughtered, these giant mutant pigs can fetch a, well, giant price on the market. Here’s more from Bloomberg:

    The 500 kilogram, or 1,102 pound, animal is part of a herd that’s being bred to become giant swine. At slaughter, some of the pigs can sell for more than 10,000 yuan ($1,399), over three times higher than the average monthly disposable income in Nanning, the capital of Guangxi province where Pang Cong, the farm’s owner, lives.

    Soaring pork prices have encouraged small and large farms to experiment with DIY genetic experimentation, in the name of raising pigs that are about 40% heavier than the ‘normal’ weight of 125 kilos.

    High pork prices in the northeastern province of Jilin is prompting farmers to raise pigs to reach an average weight of 175 kilograms to 200 kilograms, higher than the normal weight of 125 kilograms. They want to raise them “as big as possible,” said Zhao Hailin, a hog farmer in the region.

    On some large farms, the average weight of pigs at the time of slaughter has climbed from 125 kgs (275 pounds) to 140 kgs (about 310 pounds). Some are pushing to boost weight by another 14% or more.

    The trend isn’t limited to small farms either. Major protein producers in China, including Wens Foodstuffs Group Co, the country’s top pig breeder, Cofco Meat Holdings Ltd. and Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co. say they are trying to increase the average weight of their pigs. Big farms are focusing on boosting the heft by at least 14%, said Lin Guofa, a senior analyst with consulting firm Bric Agriculture Group.

    But Beijing is understandably pleased by these developments which have boosted farmers’ profits by more than 30%: It has been pushing farmers to boost production to compensate for as much of the shortfall as possible to help combat inflation in the coming years.

    As we noted last week, the pork crisis has already cost the Chinese economy some $140 billion at a time when it’s already grappling with slowing growth.

    Senior Chinese officials have already warned that the pork supply situation is “extremely severe” and will likely remain that way at least through the first half of next year.

    Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua warned that the supply situation will be “extremely severe” through to the first half of 2020. China will face a pork shortage of 10 million tons this year, more than what’s available in global trade, meaning it needs to increase production domestically, he said.

    Others are worried that the aftershock of the crisis will last for much longer: “It may be at least 10 years before we get back to the levels of production that we saw coming into this,” said Rabobank senior protein analyst Christine McCracken. “We’re looking at a very long tail on this, that should lead to a lot of incremental demand for U.S. protein going forward.”

    Indeed, US food producers couldn’t be more happy by the crisis hitting China’s pork production. Commenting on the state of the pork market, this is what Tyson Food said in its latest earning call:

    In our last quarterly call, I talked about the inventories in China being fairly high at that point in time. We do believe that those inventories have come down substantially. We are seeing the price of pork rise pretty significantly, most recently in China as well as poultry and other protein prices. So no surprises on that front. I think the impact will be sometime during our fiscal 2020…. anytime that there is that amount of protein that is lost from a global perspective, there is going to be an impact on price. And whether the United States is a direct supplier to China or whether they source from other countries to the extent that they can, it might be from continents in Europe, it might be South America, it might be in other countries. But that creates backfill opportunities for us. So net disappearance is going to remain the same I think on a global basis. Supply is lower which translates to higher prices. Not only in pork, but I think across the board in our other proteins.

    To offset the collapse in China’s pork supply, officials have not only ordered an emergency release from China’s strategic pork supply, but have ordered farmers to resume pig breeding and birthing as soon as possible even though many farmers are still wary about the outbreak, worried that they could lose their entire investment if they start too soon and the virus is still present. Plus, the spread of ‘pig ebola’ has left prices of piglets and breeding sows at record highs, making it more expensive than ever for farmers to restock.

    All of this points to raising larger, super-mutant pigs as a possible solution to mitigate risks and boost returns.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 10/06/2019 – 21:35

  • The Saudi Crown Prince's Final Option
    The Saudi Crown Prince’s Final Option

    Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,

    Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has been making headlines again these last few days. After giving an interview to CBS in which he admitted the mistakes of the Khashoggi murder last year, a media frenzy started, with a vast lineup of reports linked to the one-year remembrance day of the brutal Khashoggi murder, mainly intended to weaken the position of the Saudi crown prince. Unnamed sources are being quoted stating that MBS’s position is being attacked from all sides, including within the Kingdom.

    Since the emergence of MBS as a main power player in the Kingdom, the crown prince has been under fire from his ultra-conservative religious opponents inside Saudi Arabia. More recently, more liberal voices such as former minister of energy Khalid Al Falih have been criticizing some of the Crown Prince’s policies. MBS has responded emphatically to this dissent, first with the Ritz Project and then with the removal of Khalid Al Falih and several other major power players. The strategy currently being implemented is designed to support the long-awaited Aramco IPO, an event that MBS sees as solidifying his power in the Oil Kingdom.

    The consolidation of MBS’ power all seemed to be going to plan until the recent drone attacks on Abqaiq. The severity of these attacks seems not to be fully understood by media and analysts as most are still taking the word of Aramco and the Saudi minister of energy as gospel when it comes to the impact. To call the updates coming out of Saudi Arabia optimistic is an understatement, an attack of that size cannot be undone in a matter of days.

    And even if the damage done to Abqaiq is technically restored, and Saudi oil is flowing at the same rates as before, the world has changed. We now know that with a small amount of low intensity advanced weapon systems, the heart of the global oil sector can be significantly disrupted. Saudi Arabia’s pivotal position as the main stabilizer of the oil markets has been at best dented or, at worst, destroyed. No repair shop will be able to bring back the unquestioned confidence in Saudi Arabia as the eternal swing producer upon which the security of energy supply can depend. With less than 30 drones and cruise missiles, Saudi’s spare production capacity was removed from the market. And, contrary to what many analysts believe, it is yet to come back online

    The Iran-Saudi conflict has entered a new phase, with the real threat of a full-scale conflict. The situations in Iraq and Libya will also suffer from the instability created by this stand of. And despite this instability, Saudi Arabia’s important ally, the United States, has refused to be fully drawn into the conflict. The link between Trump and MBS appears to be weakening as the geopolitical pressure cranks up. Washington appears will to bark but not to bite when it comes to Iran’s actions against Saudi Arabia. U.S. analysts and policy makers don’t seem to understand that this stance not only weakens US influence in the region, but directly opens the doors for opposition to MBS inside of the Kingdom.

    Western and Arab media sources have published several stories recently about the growing opposition to MBS inside the Al Saud Royal Family. These reports are undoubtedly true, and MBS is heading for crunch time. The Crown Prince’s future is to be decided in the next couple of months, so very little time remains for opposition players. After the Yemen War quagmire and the damage done in Abqaiq, some royals will undoubtedly try to weaken MBS position. The main issue currently is that here is no real contender available, as most Saudis are still supportive of MBS. The old guard, such as the brother of King Salman, prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz (77), are not favored by the young. Still, MBS has to speed up his passion projects as success is everything when it comes to winning power in Riyadh.

    It is not surprising that the recent positive media reports emerging from Saudi Arabia come just before the Davos in the Desert or FII2019 meeting is held. A possible Aramco IPO presentation at FII2019, followed by a 1% listing at the Saudi Tadawul, would put MBS firmly back in the spotlight and weaken any opposition. With the current stalemate in the region, more than 4000 investment funds, sovereign wealth funds and corporations will be sitting in the conference halls of the Ritz, willing to hand over the much needed cash and multibillion projects to solidify MBS’ position.

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    Open support for MBS will be in place very soon, with Russian president Vladimir Putin expected to head to Riyadh very soon. In stark contrast to the waning Trump-MBS friendship, Putin is openly a big supporter of the crown prince’s strategy and dreams. Russian sovereign wealth fund RDIF and others are flocking to Riyadh’s hotels as further evidence of Russian support. Moscow appears set to capitalize on Washington’s weak response to the recent attacks in Saudi Arabia, and MBS will be eager to take advantage. A closer Saudi-Russian relationship may end up helping to restrain Iran, as the Islamic Republic is heavily dependent on Moscow’s support.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 10/06/2019 – 21:10

    Tags

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Today’s News 6th October 2019

  • As Hong Kong ATMs Run Out Of Cash, Central Bank Steps In To Prevent "Panic Among The Public"
    As Hong Kong ATMs Run Out Of Cash, Central Bank Steps In To Prevent “Panic Among The Public”

    As the violence in Hong Kong escalates with every passing week, culminating on Friday with what was effectively the passage of martial law when the local government banned the wearing of masks at public assemblies, a colonial-era law that is meant to give the authorities a green light to finally crack down on protesters at will, one aspect of Hong Kong life seemed to be surprisingly stable: no, not the local economy, as HK retail sales just suffered their biggest drop on record as the continuing violent protests halt most if not all commerce:

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    We are talking about the local banks, which have been remarkably resilient in the face of the continued mass protests and the ever rising threat of violent Chinese retaliation which could destroy Hong Kong’s status as the financial capital of the Pacific Rim in a heart beat, and crush the local banking system. In short: despite the perfect conditions for a bank run, the locals continued to behave as if they had not a care in the world.

    Only that is now changing, because one day after a junior JPMorgan banker was beaten in broad daylight by the protest mob, a SCMP report confirms that the social upheaval has finally spilled over into the financial world: according to the HK publication, the local central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, was forced to issue a statement warning against a “malicious attempt to cause panic among the public” after rumors were spread online about the possibility of the government using emergency powers to impose foreign-exchange controls.

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    And while the de facto central bank stressed that the banking system remained robust and well positioned to withstand any market volatility, some of the statistics it provided gave a rather troubling impression: the monetary authority said that not only were more than 10% of 3,300 ATMs damaged and could not function, but that banks were negotiating with logistics firms to refill cash machines as 5% of them had run out of money, adding that banknote delivery was affected by the closure of shopping malls and MTR stations.

    Will this be enough to prevent a bank run on the remaining ATMs? The answer will largely depend on what happens in the next 24-48 hours in Hong Kong, although the signs are grim.

    Earlier in Saturday, Hong Kong’s embattled leader, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, appealed to the public to condemn protest violence and disassociate themselves from rioters, saying the chaos they unleashed across the city the previous night after the announcement of a ban on the wearing of face masks at public assemblies was the reason such a controversial restriction had to be imposed in the first place.

    In a five-minute taped video released on Saturday afternoon, a grim-faced Lam, flanked by 14 of her top officials, slammed those who were responsible for the “outrageous” rampage. After rioting mobs trashed MTR stations, set a train on fire and assaulted railway staff on Friday night, the entire network remained closed on Saturday, depriving citizens of their primary mode of public transport. It remained uncertain whether it would open on Sunday.

    “Horribly violent incidents took place in various districts in Hong Kong last night. The extreme acts of the masked rioters were shocking and the level of vandalism was unprecedented,” Lam said.

    “The extreme acts of the rioters brought dark hours to Hong Kong last night and half-paralysed society today. Everyone is worried, anxious and even in fear.”

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    Carrie Lam, flanked by 14 of her ministers, blasted the acts of rioters on Friday night and called them ‘shocking and outrageous

    Meanwhile, Hong Kong is on the verge of complete socio-economic paralysis as dozens of shopping centres, retail outlets, grocery stores and banks did not open for business for fear of more protest violence and vandalism.

    Lam mentioned the case of a plain-clothes officer who was beaten and burned with petrol bombs by a mob in Yuen Long, saying he “had no choice but to shoot in self-defence”, wounding a teenager who was later arrested on charges of taking part in a riot and assaulting police. The violence provided solid grounds for imposing the anti-mask law, she said, defending the government’s decision to introduce it by invoking the tough colonial-era Emergency Regulations Ordinance for the first time in more than half a century.

    “The government will curb violence with utmost determination,” she said. “Let’s condemn violence together and resolutely disassociate with rioters.”

    Alas, if she had hoped her address would ease tensions, she was wrong: even as Lam’s video message was being broadcast on television and shared on the internet, hundreds of Hongkongers, many of them masked, started to march from Causeway Bay to Central to protest against the ban.

    One of the marchers, a 22-year-old named Louie, said it was unfair of Lam to ask the public to shun masked rioters.

    “She is making us a target even though we are the ones fighting for our freedom as Hongkongers,” she said. “Masks hold an important symbol in Hong Kong. We used masks during the Sars [severe acute respiratory syndrome] outbreak of 2003 and to protect ourselves against tear gas. It’s a symbol of resistance and you cannot take that away from us.”

    Earlier on Saturday, Security Secretary John Lee Ka-chiu made a similar appeal for the public to stop supporting the rioters, while dismissing accusations that the government had added fuel to the fire with the mask ban.

    “The introduction of the anti-mask regulation is to make sure that those who commit crimes and commit violence will have to face justice, so that they cannot hide behind their masks to escape their responsibilities,” Lee said.

    “What is adding oil to violence is people’s support for these acts or people’s acquiescence in finding reasons for this violence to continue. So what is important is that everybody comes out to say, ‘No, society will not accept violence.’”
    Lee noted that no one had been arrested yet under the new law that came into effect on Saturday.

    Justice Secretary Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah said the government would not rule out tougher measures using emergency powers if the protests continued to spiral out of control. These could include extending detention hours for those arrested and directly funding police without prior scrutiny by the legislature.

    Ultimately, however, it will be up to China: does Beijing allow the protests to gather ever more momentum and international support before it intervenes, or will the People’s Liberation Army finally make a grand entry and begins the crackdown that marks the beginning of the end for Hong Kong as the financial pearl of the orient.

    For an indication of what happens next, keep an eye on bitcoin: as we reported previously, LocalBitcoins, a popular platform for directly trading Bitcoin peer-to-peer, posted its highest trading volume ever in Hong Kong last week.

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    And if the local ATMs just happen to “run out” of money, watch as Hong Kong demand for bitcoin and other altcoins – not to mention gold – sends shockwaves across the world… and prices sharply higher.

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    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/05/2019 – 23:00

  • A Fake Letter To Fake Employees On The Verge Of A Modern IPO
    A Fake Letter To Fake Employees On The Verge Of A Modern IPO

    Authored by Jason Gay of the Wall Street Journal

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    ILLUSTRATION: ZOHAR LAZAR

    To the staff:

    Folks, I know everyone was excited about cashing in on our upcoming public offering, but it looks like this whole “profitability” craze is here to stay, at least for a while. We’re going to have to delay the IPO. Believe me, I am as disappointed as you are. I’d already picked out four private islands! Which technically would have been—yes—my own archipelago. Sigh.

    In the meantime, we’re going to have to tighten up until this businesses-should-make-money fad blows over. Here are some company-wide decisions, effective immediately:

    After great consideration, we are going to sell the private jets. This is a decision that is both symbolic and practical. It was not a good look for us to own a fleet of Gulfstreams. It was especially not a good look for us to fly them to Rome for Thursday pizza nights.

    We are also going to sell the company elephant, Bobo. We all loved him, and he was fantastic at staff birthday parties, but Bobo was becoming a bit of a distraction in the office. And let’s face it: the smell.

    Our founder has emailed to ask that you no longer refer to him as Supreme Genius Being of Gaia. He’s back to being Dennis.

    Also: Dennis’s 2020 independent presidential campaign has NOT ended. It’s simply “suspended.” (Admittedly, I do think Dennis got a little bored and forgot he was running.)

    Remember, Dennis is still in month three of a two-year executive vow of silence, so do not expect a verbal response from him on any of these topics.

    Those of you who “borrowed” a company Bugatti from the company Bugatti share, please return it ASAP.

    We need to put a good public face on our situation. If a stranger mentions the IPO delay and asks you what our company is really about, take a good look at the their footwear. If they’re wearing dress shoes, say “we’re a revenue-based subscription model.” If they’re wearing sneakers, it’s still OK to say “we’re a lifestyle brand.”

    I don’t know what a “lifestyle brand” is, either, but if you get stuck, just say “it’s like Nike meets Netflix.”

    If they keep asking questions, just run and hide behind a tall plant.

    Really, all you need to know is this: We are not launching a chain of fast-casual vegan restaurants on the moon in November. It’s delayed indefinitely.

    Same goes for the cat yoga studios. We’ll workshop those internally, with stuffed cats.

    There will no longer be a manager’s retreat in Gstaad, Switzerland. It will be at Applebee’s.

    We are not going to be breaking ground on HQ 2.0. Wall Street did not seem terribly enthused with Dennis’s idea for a Frank Gehry-designed underwater office building with a private missile defense system and a dolphin launch.

    Playing beer pong on Friday afternoon is still OK. But please stop playing Pappy Van Winkle 23 pong. And no more Ortolan Wednesdays.

    I regret the Rolling Stones will not be playing the Holiday Party, as previously announced. Instead, it will be Side Door, the band Dennis’s son founded with his teammates on the USC crew team.

    Ashton Kutcher is STILL visiting the office on Tuesday. Smiles, everyone! And zipped lips about Bobo. Bobo loved Ashton.

    Last but not least, and you probably saw this coming, but we will not be furnishing company logo fleece vests for the winter.

    I know this stresses some of you out. Because of this, we will be returning carbohydrates to the cafeteria.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/05/2019 – 22:30

  • Who Owns Your Favorite News Media Outlet?
    Who Owns Your Favorite News Media Outlet?

    Submitted by Visual Capitalist

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    It’s no secret that news media is a tough industry.

    For various reasons — from tech disruption to changing media consumption habits — the U.S. has seen a net loss of 1,800 local newspapers over the past 15 years. As regional newspapers are bundled together, and venture-backed digital media brands expand their portfolios, the end result is a trend towards increased consolidation.

    Today’s graphic, created by TitleMax, is a broad look at who owns U.S. news media outlets.

    Escaping the News Desert

    As outlets battle the duopoly of Google and Facebook for advertising revenue, the local news game has become increasingly difficult.

    As a result, news deserts have been springing up all over America:

    <!–

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    What happens when times get tough?

    One option is to simply go out of business, while another traditional solution is to combine forces through consolidation. While not ideal, the latter option at least provides a potential route to revenue and cost synergies that make it easier to compete in a challenging environment.

    Nation of Consolidation

    Though the numbers have decreased in recent years, regional news media still reaches millions of people each day.

    Below is a look at the top 20 owners of America’s newspapers:

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    Turnover in this segment of the market has been brisk. In fact, more than half of existing newspapers have changed ownership in the past 15 years, some multiple times. For example, the LA Times is now in the hands of its third owner since 2000, after being purchased by billionaire biotech investor Patrick Soon-Shiong.

    The industry may be facing another dramatic drop off in ownership diversity as the two largest players, New Media Investment Group and Gannett, are on the path to merging. If shareholders give the thumbs-up during the vote this November, Gannett will have amassed the largest online audience of any American news provider.

    The Flying Vs: Vox and Vice

    It isn’t just regional papers being swept up in the latest round of mergers and acquisitions — new media is getting into the mix as well.

    Vox Media recently inked a deal to acquire New York Media, the firm behind New York Magazine, Vulture, and The Cut.

    I think you’re going to see that trend [of consolidation] across the industry. I just hope it’s done for the right reasons. You see too many of these things done for financial engineering.

    – Jim Bankoff, CEO of Vox Media

    Meanwhile, Vice recently acquired Refinery29 for $400 million, giving it access to a new audience skewed towards millennial women. This match-up seems awkward on the surface, but it allows advertisers to reach a broader cross-section of people within each ad ecosystem.

    Both companies announced layoffs in the past year, and this restructuring may help both companies win as they consolidate resources.

    The Bottom Line

    While news media isn’t quite as consolidated as the broader media ecosystem, it’s certainly trending in that direction. Thousands of American communities that had local newspapers in 2004 now have no news coverage at all, while remaining papers are increasingly becoming units within an umbrella company, with no direct stake in community reporting.

    That said, until the issue of monetization is definitively sorted out, consolidation may be the only way to keep the presses from stopping.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/05/2019 – 22:00

  • Identity Of 'American Psycho' Who Killed 4 Homeless Men In NYC Revealed
    Identity Of ‘American Psycho’ Who Killed 4 Homeless Men In NYC Revealed

    Update: The New York Post has managed to dig up some more information about the (allegedly) homeless man suspected of murdering four other vagrants (and badly injuring a fifth) during a late night/early morning killing spree.

    The suspect has been identified as 24-year-old Rodriguez “Randy” Santos.

    Santos was arrested last November on an assault charge: He leaped over a desk at a store on West 35th Street in Midtown and grabbed a man by the neck, then bit his chest. The NYP reportedly obtained the information from a “high ranking law enforcement source”.

    Before Friday night’s attack, Santos had racked up some 14 arrests – four of them in the last year. He’s believed to be homeless, though it’s unclear how long he’s been living on the street.

    The police said Santos’s attack had all the hallmarks of a random killing spree.

    Here’s some information about Santos’s motive according to a detective who spoke at an NYPD press conference.

    “Motive appears to be, right now, just random attacks. It doesn’t seem anybody was targeted by race, age, anything of that nature,” said Chief of Manhattan South Detective Michael Baldassano.

    Santos is still in police custody.

    * * *

    There’s a new ‘American Psycho’ prowling the streets of New York City.

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    Four homeless men were found murdered in Lower Manhattan Saturday morning. Police said the men were attacked and beaten to death, likely while they slept. A fifth man was found badly wounded, but alive.

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    Police discovered the first two victims after responding to a report of an assault in progress on Bowery Street near Doyers Street in Chinatown shortly before 2 am on Saturday morning, CNN reports.

    The attacker fled as police approached, but officers soon found two men, both with severe head trauma after being bludgeoned with a bat or a pipe. One was pronounced dead at the scene. Another was taken to New York-Presbyterian Lower Manhattan Hospital.

    A search of the area turned up three more victims with similar head trauma, all pronounced dead at the scene. Two of the men were discovered in front of a store on East Broadway, another was found across the street.

    Police then spotted the suspected assailant – he was reportedly carrying a three-foot-long, blood-covered metal poll that he had apparently stolen from a construction site. The 24-year-old man was taken into custody, but police haven’t released his name, though they did say they believe the suspect is also homeless.

    NYC’s homeless population has exploded in recent years as housing prices and rents have soared, and the killings will almost certainly draw attention to the homelessness crisis gripping the city. Notably, the killings are reminiscent of a scene from the movie ‘American Psycho’, based on a novel by Brett Easton Ellis, where the movie’s anti-hero, Patrick Bateman (played by actor Christian Bale), stabs and kills an unsuspecting homeless man.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/05/2019 – 21:44

    Tags

  • Erdogan Vows Sunday Incursion Into Syria As Pentagon Waffles
    Erdogan Vows Sunday Incursion Into Syria As Pentagon Waffles

    After weeks of threats, Turkey looks to finally make good on Erdogan’s repeat promises to unilaterally invade northern Syria, as a deal to conduct joint “land and air patrols” with the US is collapsing just as it barely got off the ground.

    Turkey’s military is on high alert, ready to carry out the Turkish president’s orders on short notice, after a longtime military build-up along the border. We will carry out this operation both on land and air as soon as today or tomorrow,” Erdogan said on Saturday. “We gave all warnings to our interlocutors regarding the east of Euphrates and we have acted with sufficient patience,” the president added.

    He further slammed the prospect of cooperating with the US on a US-Turkey administered safe zone “a fairytale” given Washington’s recalcitrance regarding Syria’s Kurds, the ethnic group’s militias of which Turkey considers “terrorists”. 

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    Prior build-up of Turkish forces along the Syrian border AFP/GETTY Image

    The Kurdish dominated and US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has vowed it will treat any invading Turkish soldiers as an act of war. In a statement the SDF said it would “not hesitate to turn any unprovoked (Turkish) attack into an all-out war” to defend its region in northeast Syria, according to Reuters

    Erdogan named Sunday as a likely day to launch the operation in a rare moment of specificity (he indicated “as soon as today or tomorrow”), though he’s on up to a dozen or more occasions generally threatened such action. Bloomberg reports major troop reinforcements observed at the border with northeast Syria:

    Turkey reinforced army units at the Syrian border hours after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signaled an imminent cross-border operation against U.S.-backed Kurdish militants in Syria.

    Turkey sent additional armored vehicles and troops to the border town of Akcakale late Saturday, across from Tal Abyad in Syria, according to state TV television TRT.

    Assuming the moment finally does arrive on Sunday, the next big question is the American response: withdraw troops or dig in to protect its on the ground Kurdish SDF/YPG partners? 

    Secretary of Defense Mark Esper during a Saturday press briefing was asked point blank precisely this question. Esper’s response was notably ambiguous and evasive when compared to Erdogan’s saying it’s “a fairy tale”.

    “Right now, we’re focused on making the security mechanism functional in northern northeast Syria,” Esper began. “I’m sorry. I had a long conversation with my counterpart Mr. Akar yesterday, and this was the specific focus of our discussion, and I made very clear to him and he agreed as well that we need to make the security mechanism work,” he continued, clinging to the prior agreement with Ankara.

    “You know, we have the joint center up and working in southern Turkey, we have air patrols going on, we had another ground patrol just happen.  We’ve got to work through all the details,” he added

    “And so I just told him, let’s keep working at it that’s the best path forward for all of us, so that’s what I’m focused on right now,” Esper finished  — ultimately not saying much that’s different from prior such statements, despite Turkish impatience and bellicose threats to go it alone. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/05/2019 – 21:30

    Tags

  • Inquirygate: Did Pelosi Just 'Prorogue' The US House?
    Inquirygate: Did Pelosi Just ‘Prorogue’ The US House?

    Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

    It took just 4 months after the deplorably failed Mueller probe of alleged Trump links to Russia, for the Democrats to raise the next -faded- red flag, Ukraine. And they do so in a manner that reminds me, personally, a lot of what happens in the UK. That is, the process has now moved on to what is legal or not and who decides what is or not.

    Nancy Pelosi apparently has been told by her legal advice that it’s okay for her to move ahead with an inquiry, that she can even label an Impeachment Inquiry, without following established Capitol Hill procedure. Needless to say, them slopes are mighty slippery. Because if true, it would mean she can call the ‘other side’ offside for as long as she wishes.

    She would, in effect, prorogate the US House the same way Boris Johnson tried to do Parliament in Britain. And not by shutting it down from the outside (Boris as PM) but from the inside (using her powers as Speaker). It would appear it’s time for every American to pay attention, because this could have grave consequences far into the future.

    Pelosi’s plan is to not have a House vote on initiating the inquiry, but to just go ahead and have one, and stealing the name Impeachment Inquiry for it. Why? Because she thinks that way she can have only Democrats ask questions, issue subpoenas etc., while House Republicans could only sit and watch the spectacle (not what they were elected for).

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    I am not a lawyer, let alone a constitutional scholar, but when I read these things there are a million red hot five-alarms going off in my head. Because this is not about enacting the law, it’s about circumventing it. Just because you have a House majority cannot mean you can simply ignore the minority, or procedure. That would turn democracy into a proxy dictatorship. You don’t want to go there, not even if you’re a desperate Democrat.

    But she seems to have made up her mind. So now we face Trump not being allowed to investigate what Joe Biden was up to in the run-up to the 2016 election though his party could turn that same run-up into a 3-year Social Counsel probe, which turned up emptier then .. well, you fill it in. It is something to behold.

    At the same time, though, there is no Impeachment Inquiry, even if Pelosi calls it that. The White House today will send a letter to a judge contesting exactly that. A House Impeachment Inquiry has a procedure, and if she doesn’t follow that, the White House will deny it’s actually happening.

    Now, if you follow the headlines this week, you wouldn’t know this. because they all talk of impeachment. But you can’t get impeachment without following the official procedure, and Pelosi doesn’t follow it. The media just go along for the ride without caring about procedure.

    And obviously you can’t watch this theater and not think that Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff et al have not thought about stretching out this whole tragedy for another year, right on the eve of the 2020 election, or even beyond. That they think allegations about Russia, Ukraine and China will help them win.

    Because it’s clear that flouting procedure the way they try to do in the House will inevitable have to lead to court decisions, and eventually to the Supreme Court. They’re counting on the damage they can do to Trump while the courts decide. But it won’t just be damage to Trump, however it turns out, it will be damage to the entire country.

    And you would think both sides of the aisle recognize that, if we do, but there are very few if any signs of that. Everyone’s gearing up for a very big fight because everyone else in their echo chamber is. The problem is, whatever happens, and whoever becomes president, the dividing lines will only become deeper and darker.

    AG Bill Barr, along with the State Department and DOJ, and whoever else is involved, will release multiple reports from investigations conducted by US Attorney John Durham, DOJ IG Michael Horowitz and potentially others. The Dems and MSM viewpoint appears to be that is was fine to appoint a Special Counsel to investigate Trump’s links to Russia, but not Democrats’ links to, well, anyone at all.

    And that is just not okay. I saw this very short clip of John Brennan saying:

    “I think I suspected there was more than there actually was.” 

    And that’s supposed to atone for 3 years of incessant smearing? It’s ridiculous. Brennan is ridiculous.

    https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6091945197001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

    And yeah, I know that’s Fox, and I know I’ve on occasion had to turn to right wing media for news because the MSM have closed ranks and ‘report’ only on one side of the story. Sue me for wanting actual news.

    None of this negates the fact that we’re in for ever bitter fights, up to and including at the US Supreme Court, ever more, to decide who rules the country. Just like in Britain.

    I don’t think that’s what the Founding Fathers had in mind. At least, unlike Britain, they cared enough to write a Constitution. A lot of good that did.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/05/2019 – 21:14

    Tags

  • 11 Tons Of Water And "Special Container" Used To Extinguish Burning Tesla In Austria
    11 Tons Of Water And “Special Container” Used To Extinguish Burning Tesla In Austria

    It was just days ago that we reported that the NHTSA was opening an inquiry into the use of Tesla’s “Smart Summon” feature. Then, just hours ago we followed up by reporting that a petition had been filed with the NHTSA claiming that Tesla was using over the air software updates to cover up dangerous battery issues. 

    Today, we offer a stark reminder that just because the NHTSA has started to perk up its ears, doesn’t mean that Teslas haven’t stopped going up in flames all over the world. The most recent example comes from Austria, where after a Tesla was involved in an accident and caught fire, firefighters had to use a special container to transport the remains of the vehicle and the battery. 

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    According to a translated version of this ORF News story, a 57 year old driver lost control of his Tesla and crashed into a tree, after first hitting the guardrail. It was then that the vehicle caught fire. 

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    The driver was lucky, as “people passing by the scene of the accident took the man out of the vehicle and called emergency services.”

    In order to put out the fire, the street had to be closed and fire authorities had to bring in a container user to cool the vehicle. The container held 11,000 liters (11 tons) of water and was designed to eliminate the biggest risk in an EV accident which is the battery catching fire.

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    The Tesla battery is mounted on the underside of the vehicle and contains acids and chemicals that can easily escape during a fire, placing the firefighters in danger. 

    Here is the problem: according to the article, some 11,000 liters of water are needed to finally extinguish a burning Tesla but an average fire engine only carries around 2,000 liters of water.

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    Fire brigade spokesman Peter Hölzl warned that the car could still catch fire for up to three days after the initial fire. 

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    The container used is said to be suitable for all common electric vehicles. It measures 6.8 meters long, 2.4 meters wide and 1.5 meters high, it is (obviously) waterproof and weighs three tons.

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    We hope the NHTSA has a nice long hard look at these photos, as it has now become painfully obvious that the fire issue is very real and very dangerous for Tesla. We can only hope that the agency is acting with the expediency necessary to promptly address an issue that is putting lives at risk every day. 

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    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/05/2019 – 21:11

  • Floating Nuclear Power Plants Are Ready To Shape Global Energy Market
    Floating Nuclear Power Plants Are Ready To Shape Global Energy Market

    Submitted by South Front

    On September 14, the Akademik Lomonosov floating nuclear power plant reached the port city of Pevek in Russia’s Chukotka after covering a distance of more than 4,700km from Murmansk. After connecting to power grids there, it will become a fully-fledged energy producing facility, supplying electricity to the city of Pevek and the Chukotka Autonomous Region. This will include replacing the capacity of the Bilibino Nuclear Power Plant, which will be finally stopped in early 2020.

    The Akademik Lomonosov is the lead project for a series of low-power mobile transportable power units. Floating nuclear power plants (FNPPs) in the Far North and the Far East are a new class of energy sources based on Russian nuclear shipbuilding technologies. The station is equipped with two KLT-40S icebreaker-type reactors which are capable of generating up to 70 MW of electricity and 50 Gcal/h of thermal energy in the nominal operating mode. This is enough to ensure that energy consumption demands are satisfied for a city with a population of about 100 000 people.

    The Akademik Lomonosov has a length of 144 meters and a width of 30 meters. It has a displacement of 21 500 tones and a crew of 69 people. The reactors were designed by OKBM Afrikantov and assembled by Nizhniy Novgorod Research and Development Institute Atomenergoproekt. The reactor vessels were produced by Izhorskiye Zavody. The turbo generators were supplied by the Kaluga Turbine Plant.

    The FNPP’s planned service life is 40 years. The operating time of reactor installations between reloading of the core is three years. All nuclear fuel and radioactive material handling systems are located inside the FNPP. The core reloading and storage of spent fuel is carried out on board the FNPP.

    The FNPP can carry sufficient enriched uranium to power the two reactors for 12 years. Then, it, with its spent fuel, should be towed back to Russia, where the radioactive waste will be processed. In addition, such power units allow creating powerful desalination plants on their bases.

    Initially, the Akademik Lomonosov project cost was expected to be $140 million. However, during construction, the cost increased to about $574 million. This includes $107 million for coastal infrastructure.

    The State Atomic Energy Corporation, Rosatom is already working on the second generation FNPP called the Optimized Floating Power Unit. It will be smaller and more powerful than its predecessor. The Optimized Floating Power Unit is to be equipped with two RITM-200M reactors with a total capacity of 100 MW. There is no disclosed plan of how many of these power plants will be produced. Currently, Russia operates 11 nuclear power plants, including the Akademik Lomonosov.

    Russia’s Energy giant, Gazprom, reportedly has plans to use at least 5 FNPPs for oil and gas field development as well as for support of infrastructure for transportation operations. Possible locations where they could be used include the Shtokman natural gas field in the Barents Sea, and in the developing oil and gas fields on the Yamal Peninsula.

    FNPPs would be useful along the Northern Sea Route, in and around the Arctic. The floating nuclear power plants will solve the issue of the energy supply in the region and will make possible the creation of a comprehensive support infrastructure there. According to Rosatom, 15 countries, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Algeria, Namibia, Cape Verde and Argentina, have already shown interest in hiring floating nuclear power plants.

    Floating nuclear power plants will solve energy issues in areas where construction of classic nuclear plants is not possible (for example, because of a seismic hazard) or is too costly and complicated. In Russia, this could help to provide additional electricity to port cities such as Sevastopol, Novorossiysk or Vladivistok.

    African states, many of which suffer from constant energy shortages, also could solve their issues with help from FNPPs. In addition, the deployed FNPPs would make feasible the the creation of desalination plants providing massive amounts of clean, drinkable water for the local population. Therefore, another key humanitarian issue in Africa will be resolved.

    One more likely location is the Arabian Peninsula. For example, an FNPP could be employed to deal with the humanitarian crisis in Yemen after the end of the Saudi-led invasion. Such a ship deployed near al-Hudaydah could provide western Yemen with energy and clean water.

    Furthermore, floating nuclear power plants can be used on river routes, for example in Russia and throughout Asia. Some United States cities in remote areas such as Alaska might also benefit, since, until the US makes some adequate icebreakers, they would still need to ask Russia for assistance in case of crises.

    The launch of the first ever floating nuclear power plant has become an important engineering breakthrough that will impact the energy sphere on a global scale. This technology, which could potentially provide safe and clean energy to a large part of the planet, could also be provided at an attractive price.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/05/2019 – 21:00

  • China Launches HD Satellite To Monitor Belt And Road Projects
    China Launches HD Satellite To Monitor Belt And Road Projects

    On Saturday, China launched an observation satellite into space that will soon monitor its Belt and Road projects around the world. The satellite, which according to Xinhua  will be called Gaofen-10, was launched early Saturday morning aboard a Long March 4C orbital carrier rocket from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in Northern China.

    Gaofen-10 is a high-definition (HD) microwave remote sensing satellite that is part of the China High-resolution Earth Observation System (CHEOS) that will be activated by 2020.

    The satellite is capable of taking HD photographs with a resolution of about one meter. In total, CHEOS will have seven optical/microwave satellites that will be used in “land survey, urban planning, and road network designs” along the Belt and Road, reported Xinhuanet.

    The Belt and Road is China’s ambitious infrastructure investment plan that is currently constructing railways, energy pipelines, and highways in 152 countries, that could soon become the world’s future economic system.

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    Gaofen-10 will orbit at 370 to 430 miles above Earth and will have a life span of 5-8 years. It was reported that the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology developed the satellite, and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation built the rocket.

    China’s goal of deploying a network of HD satellites to monitor its Belt and Road projects could become a reality next year.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 10/05/2019 – 20:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 5th October 2019

  • CJ Hopkins: Trumpenstein Must Be Destroyed!
    CJ Hopkins: Trumpenstein Must Be Destroyed!

    Authored (satirically) by CJ Hopkins via The Unz Review,

    So here we go. Like a 1960s straight-to-drive-in Hammer Film Production, the 2020 campaign season has begun. Dig into your bucket of popcorn, pop the flap on your box of Good & Plenty, turn off your mind, and enjoy the show. From the looks of the trailer, it’s going to be a doozy.

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    That’s right, folks, it’s the final installment of the popular Trumpenstein horror movie series, TRUMPENSTEIN MUST BE DESTROYED! It will be playing, more or less around the clock, on more or less every screen in existence, until November 3, 2020 … or until Trump takes that lonely walk across the White House lawn to the Marine One chopper and flies off to Mar-a-Lago in disgrace.

    Here’s a quick recap of the series so far, for those who may be joining us late.

    When we last saw Trumpenstein he was out on the balcony of the White House South Portico in his Brioni boxers, ripped to the gills on Diet Coke and bellowing like a bull elephant seal. Having narrowly survived the Resistance’s attempts to expose him as a Russian intelligence asset (and the reanimated corpse of Adolf Hitler), he was pounding his chest and hollering angry gibberish at the liberal media like the Humongous in the second Mad Max movie.

    The liberal mob was standing around with their torches and pitchforks in a state of shock. Doctor Mueller, the “monster hunter,” had let Trumpenstein slip through his fingers. The supposedly ironclad case against him had turned out to be a bunch of lies made up by the Intelligence Community, the Democratic Party, and the corporate media.

    Russiagate was officially dead. The President of the United States was not a Russian secret agent. No one was blackmailing anyone with a videotape of Romanian prostitutes peeing on a bed where Obama once slept. All that had happened was, millions of liberals had been subjected to the most elaborate psyop in the history of elaborate deep state psyops … which, ironically, had only further strengthened Trumpenstein, who was out there on the Portico balcony, shotgunning Diet Cokes with one hand and shaking his junk at the mob with the other.

    It wasn’t looking so good for “democracy.”

    Fortunately, even though Russiagate had blown up in the Resistance’s faces and Trumpenstein could no longer be painted as a traitorous Russian intelligence asset (or as Vladimir Putin’s homosexual lover), he was still the reanimated corpse of Hitler, so they went balls out on the fascism hysteria, which kept the Resistance alive through the summer.

    Which was all they really needed to do. Because these last three years were basically just a warm-up for the main event, which was always scheduled to begin this autumn. Russiagate, Hitlergate, and all the rest of it … it was all just a prelude to these impeachment hearings, and to the mass hysteria surrounding same, which the global capitalist ruling classes, the Intelligence Community, and the corporate media will be barraging us with until November 2020.

    The details don’t really matter that much. They were always going to impeach him for something, and they were always going to do it now, and throughout the 2020 campaign season.

    You do not honestly believe they are going to let him serve a second term, do you? He took them by surprise in 2016. That isn’t going to happen again.

    Seriously, take a moment and reflect on everything we’ve been subjected to since Hillary Clinton lost the election… the unmitigated insanity of it all.

    • The Russiagate hysteria.

    • The Russian hacker hysteria.

    • The Russian Facebook mind-control hysteria.

    • The Hitler hysteria.

    • The mass fascism hysteria.

    • The anti-Semitism hysteria.

    • The concentration camp hysteria.

    • The white supremacist terrorism hysteria.

    • Russian spy whales.

    • Perfume assassins.

    • The endless stream of fabricated “news” stories pumped out by the corporate media.

    • Best-selling books, based on nothing.

    • Comedians singing hymns to former FBI directors on national television.

    • Celebrities demanding CIA coups.

    • Papers of record like The New York Times coordinating blatant propaganda campaigns.

    The list goes on, and on, and on.

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    All of this because one billionaire ass clown won an election without their permission?

    No, this was never just about Donald Trump, repulsive and corrupt as the man may be. The stakes have always been much higher than that. What we’ve witnessed over the the last three years (and what is about to reach its apogee) is a global capitalist counter-insurgency, the goal of which is:

    (a) to put down the ongoing populist rebellion throughout the West,

    and (b) to crush any hope of resistance to the hegemony of global capitalism … in other words, a War on Populism.

    Not that Donald Trump is a populist hero. Far from it. Trump is a narcissistic clown. He has always been a narcissistic clown. All he really cares about is seeing his face on television and plastering his name on everything in sight, preferably in huge gold letters. He got himself elected president by being cunning enough to recognize and ride the tsunami of populist anger that was building up in 2016, and that has continued to build throughout his presidency. It is not going away, that anger. The Western masses are no more thrilled about the global capitalist future today than they were when voted for Brexit, and Trump, and various other “populist” and reactionary figures.

    Which is precisely why Trumpenstein must be destroyed, and why Brexit must not be allowed to happen … or, if it does, why the people of the United Kingdom must be mercilessly punished. It is also why the Gilets Jaunes are being brutally repressed by the French police, and disappeared by the corporate media (while the Hong Kong protesters garner daily headlines), and why Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party must be smeared as a hive of anti-Semites, and Tulsi Gabbard as an Assad-apologist, and why Julian Assange must be smeared and destroyed, and why Bernie Sanders must also be destroyed, and why anyone of any ilk (left, right, it doesn’t matter) riding that wave of populist anger or challenging the hegemony of global capitalism and its psychotic, smiley-face ideology in any other way must be destroyed.

    2020 is for all the marbles.

    The global capitalist ruling classes either crush this ongoing populist insurgency or… God knows where we go from here. Try to see it through their eyes for a moment. Picture four more years of Trump … second-term Trump … Trump unleashed. Do you really believe they’re going to let that happen, that they are going to permit this populist insurgency to continue for another four years?

    They are not.

    What they are going to do is use all their power to destroy the monster … not Trump the man, but Trump the symbol. They are going to drown us in impeachment minutiae, drip, drip, drip, for the next twelve months. The liberal corporate media are going to go full-Goebbels. They are going to whip up so much mass hysteria that people won’t be able to think. They are going to pit us one against the other, and force us onto one or the other side of a simulated conflict (Democracy versus the Putin-Nazis) to keep us from perceiving the actual conflict (Global Capitalism versus Populism). They are going to bring us to the brink of civil war in order to prevent civil war. And, if that doesn’t work, and Trump gets reelected (or if it looks like he’s going to get reelected), they’ll probably have to just go ahead and kill him.

    One way or another, this is it. This is the part where the global capitalist ruling classes teach us all a lesson. The lesson they intend to teach us is the same old lesson that masters have been teaching slaves since the dawn of slavery.

    The lesson is, “abandon hope.”

    The lesson is, “resistance is futile.”

    The lesson is, “shut up, eat your tofu, get back to work at your three gig jobs, service your school loans and your credit card debt, vote for who and what we tell you, and be grateful we don’t fucking kill you. Oh, yeah … and if you want to rebel against something, feel free to take up identity politics, or to march around town with posters of Saint Greta demanding that we stop destroying the planet. We’ll get right on that, don’t you worry.”

    What? You thought this had a happy ending, that Trumpenstein and the Bride of Trumpenstein were going to ride off into the orange sunrise at Mar-a-Lago in a Trump-branded golf cart, having made America great again … or that Bernie was going to storm the castle, vanquish Trumpenstein, and set up something resembling basic social democracy?

    I told you it was a horror film, didn’t I?

    *  *  *

    C. J. Hopkins is an award-winning American playwright, novelist and political satirist based in Berlin. His plays are published by Bloomsbury Publishing (UK) and Broadway Play Publishing (USA). His debut novel, ZONE 23, is published by Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant Paperbacks. He can be reached at cjhopkins.com or consentfactory.org.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 23:45

  • Democrats Supoena White House For Ukraine Documents
    Democrats Supoena White House For Ukraine Documents

    Just one day after President Trump dared House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to hold an impeachment inquiry vote – a move which would open Democrats up to Republican subpoenas, House Democrats slapped the White House with a subpoena first

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    Addressed to acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, the subpoena demands documents and communications related to the case being constructed against Trump – namely that his request that Ukraine investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son for corruption constitutes election interference and endangered national security. Of note, the Justice Department concluded that Trump’s phone call with Zelensky did not violate campaign finance law

    How the White House, which has routinely rejected congressional requests for information, responds to the demands for documents could significantly shape the impeachment investigation going forward. Under normal circumstances, the White House could claim materials referred to in both requests were privileged, using that as a defense in court. –New York Times

    What Democrats aren’t pursuing, by the by, is anything resembling due diligence on Biden – the (still) leading Democratic candidate trying to fend off accusations of nepotism in Ukraine and China while abusing his office as Vice President. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As we noted earlier Friday, Vice President Mike Pence was hit with a subpoena  as well over, demanding information on “any role you may have played” in helping with the Ukraine effort against Biden. 

    Pence press secretary Katie Waldman said “given the scope, it does not appear to be a serious request but just another attempt by the ‘Do Nothing Democrats’ to call attention to their partisan impeachment.”

    Pelosi and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) have warned that failure to comply with subpoenas will be viewed as obstruction of Congress – which the Times says is “itself a potentially impeachable offense.” 

    “he White House has refused to engage with — or even respond to — multiple requests for documents from our Committees on a voluntary basis,” reads the subpoena, demanding information by October 15. “After nearly a month of stonewalling, it appears clear that the president has chosen the path of defiance, obstruction, and cover-up.” 

    The actions came at the end of another day of fast-moving developments in the House impeachment investigation, which is centered on allegations that Mr. Trump and his administration worked to bend America’s diplomatic apparatus for his own political benefit.

    Mr. Trump himself appeared resigned to the prospect that he would be impeached, and was gearing up for an epic political battle to defend himself, predicting the Democrat-led House would approve articles of impeachment against him and the Republican-controlled Senate would acquit him. –New York Times

    They’ll just get their people,” Trump said of the Democratic-controlled House. “They’re all in line. Because even though many of them don’t want to vote, they have no choice. They have to follow their leadership. And then we’ll get it to the Senate, and we’re going to win.”

    Trump also huddled with House Republicans on a Friday conference call, defending his efforts in Ukraine and gathering support for the upcoming battle. 

    On Friday, the House Intelligence Committee questioned Michael Atkinson, the intelligence community inspector general who first analyzed the whistleblower complaint by a CIA employee, on a recently altered form which allowed said whistleblower to provide second-hand information. 

    Congressional Democrats are also trying to use a trove of texts between American diplomats and a top Zelensky aid, which came from former US envoy to Ukraine, Kurt Volker, following his Thursday closed-door testimony. 

    The ‘gotcha’ is a text from US diplomat to Ukraine William Taylor, who said in a Sept. 9 text message to US ambassador to the EU, Gordon Sondland: “I think it’s crazy to withhold security assistance for help with a political campaign.

    To which Sondland replies “Bill, I believe you are incorrect about President Trump’s intentions. The President has been crystal clear no quid pro quo’s of any kind,” adding “I suggest we stop the back and forth by text.”  

    The moral of the story; it’s OK for Joe Biden to have allegedly steered millions, if not billions of dollars towards his son Hunter and his associates by abusing his office as Vice President. It’s not ok to question it – and shouldn’t be investigated if it means exposing said (alleged) wrongdoing and ruining Biden’s chances in 2020. 


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 23:19

    Tags

  • Western Zero-Sum Geopolitics Is A Dead-End
    Western Zero-Sum Geopolitics Is A Dead-End

    Via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The US and its Western allies are creating more international tensions and instability in a futile bid to carve the globe into “spheres of interest” and “exclusivity”. That’s the way Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov views it, and few objective observers of international relations could disagree with his admonishment.

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    Russia’s top diplomat says the only way forward is for multilateralism to prevail and for all states to abide by the principles of the United Nations’ Charter, to which they are signatories.

    A prime example of the destructive US-led Western policy is seen in the Persian Gulf where tensions have reached an explosive pitch which could trigger an all-out war across the Middle East, possibly embroiling the entire world.

    There can be little doubt that the precarious situation in the Gulf is extant because of Washington’s irresponsible provocations towards Iran. The unilateral abrogation of the landmark 2015 nuclear accord by the Trump administration and the militarization of an already dominant US presence in the Gulf over recent months is a brazen case of Washington going it alone in contravention of international law and norms. (Alas, has the US ever been different?, one might demur.)

    In its unilateral initiative, the US has cobbled together a clique of nations to support its presumed military right to act as a policeman in the Persian Gulf: Britain, Australia and Saudi Arabia have indicated they are willing to join a US “coalition” to purportedly safeguard “freedom of navigation” through the  vital chokepoint in global oil trade.

    Declared intentions aside, the problem is Washington’s attempt to demarcate a “sphere of influence” in the strategically important Middle East. No matter, it seems, that this action is seriously aggravating tensions and instability in the region. Iran has every right to protest what it sees as a US-led campaign of aggression, piled on top of Washington’s bad faith regarding the UN-endorsed nuclear accord.

    However, by contrast, a viable way out of the dead-end that Washington’s policy of unilateralism has created is the formation of a multilateral naval security system, which involves all nations in the Persian Gulf, including Iran, Saudi Arabia and others. Extra-regional nations can also be involved, including China, India, Japan, the European Union, as well as Russia and the US.

    Such a proposal has been submitted to the UN by Russia earlier this year. This week during a meeting with Sergei Lavrov, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif gave his full support for such a multilateral security mechanism. The initiative is consistent with UN principles of respecting national sovereignties and non-aggression. It obviates the notion of nations presuming to have “spheres of influence”. The latter concept is a relic of colonialism and imperialism, and should be obsolete in today’s world.

    Another contemporary example of destructive unilateralism is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The country has been trapped in a nearly five-year war in which civilians in the eastern Donbass region have suffered greatly. Western governments and media accuse Russia of meddling in Ukraine. But the reality is that it was Washington and European states that interfered by illegally overthrowing an elected government in Kiev with a violent CIA-backed coup in February 2014.

    Ukraine has been turned into a failed state because Washington and its Western allies wanted to impose a “sphere of influence” on Russia’s border.

    It is patently obvious that such unilateral policy is a violation of international law and democratic principles. It is a criminal assertion of geopolitical “interests” and “objectives”. Moreover, such misconduct inevitably leads to a morass of conflict, destruction and immense human suffering.

    The disgraceful irony is that while Russia is constantly accused, without evidence, of interfering in other countries, the abundant, irrefutable proof is the opposite: Washington and its Western allies have an incessant habit of violating and destabilizing nations and regions in presumed zero-sum geopolitical games.

    For the sake of world peace and progressive development, all nations must adhere to the concept of multilateralism, mutual respect and genuine cooperation, free of stereotyping and demonizing others for propaganda gains.

    The question is though:

    can US corporate capitalism and its militarist machine abide by that reasonable, minimal demand for international cooperation?

    If not, then the American political system and its coterie of Western minions are driving the world into an abysmal dead-end.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 23:05

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  • How Vulnerable Are America's Power Grids?
    How Vulnerable Are America’s Power Grids?

    America’s electricity grid powers our lives, but, as The Epoch Times’ Chris Chappell points out, because it was never built with attacks in mind, it has plenty of vulnerabilities.

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    Everything from malware cyber-attacks, to geomagnetic storms, to nuclear detonations in the atmosphere above the US, even sophisticated electronic weapons from Russia and Chinaall these threaten to shut down our grid and sow chaos.

    So what, if anything, is being done to counter this threat?

     


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 22:45

  • Military Keynesianism Marches On
    Military Keynesianism Marches On

    Authored by Joan Roelofs via Counterpunch.org,

    Our elected representatives do not have to be bribed with campaign contributions from weapons makers to support the Department of Defense budget. They may, shockingly, be representing our nation. Australian political scientist David T. Smith states: “The National Security State maintains democratic legitimacy because of the way it disperses public and private benefits while shielding ordinary Americans from the true costs of high-tech warfare.”

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    Some support for our military’s activities and its budget can be attributed to propaganda, or veteran nostalgia, or the glorification of violence in our history books, schools, and patriotic parades. In addition, a multitude of interests sustains the military and its budget, and encourages silence about its activities.

    The “free enterprise” economy, although always government supported, has been increasingly weakened by foreign competition, outsourcing, automation, consumer satiation, rustbelting, poverty, and demographic changes. A “mixed economy” then fills the breach. Public-private entities in the form of local economic development councils have been created because the “free enterprise dynamic system” can do “everything better,” (so its advocates claim), except keep the economy going. Capitalism must be saved by massive national, state, and local government investment and intervention in education, research, health care, highways and other infrastructure, transportation, agriculture, urban planning, environmental remediation, social services, recreation, business incubators, prisons, and much else.

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    “Military Keynesianism” is a major part of our “Blood Red” New Deal; some of its practices recall the Works Progress Administration and Civilian Conservation Corps of the 1930s. (Not coincidently, the Tennessee Valley Authority and the Bonneville Power project served munitions production, and later, at Oak Ridge and Hanford, supported the enormous energy that nuclear fuel required.)

    Unfortunately, the mission of the US military, according to its Defense Strategy Review is to “build a more lethal force” and “With our allies and partners, we will challenge competitors by maneuvering them into unfavorable positions, frustrating their efforts, precluding their options while expanding our own, and forcing them to confront conflict under adverse conditions.”

    Our military is not particularly concerned with the welfare of persons or the environment, nationally or internationally. Its strategy does not propose using cooperation, diplomacy, or international law to reduce the threat to human civilization. Do not think that I come to praise this state of affairs; I come to bury it. But first we must see what sustains our Romanesque empire.

    Certainly DoD contracts with weapons makers and their subcontracts provide a sharp economic stimulus. (Lobbying and excessive weapons acquisition is a gigantic part of the problem, but as the subject has been well covered in CounterPunch, Center for Defense Information, Center for International Policy, TomDispatch, and other sources, that aspect will have only a brief mention here.)

    The NH Business Review reported that: “In New Hampshire, the F-35 program supports 55 suppliers – 35 of which are small businesses – and over 900 direct jobs, much of them located at BAE Systems in Nashua. The F-35 program generates over $481 million in economic impact in the state” (9-21-17). In contrast to the widespread urban decay in the US, “Nashua is the best place to live in New Hampshire, according to a new survey. Money Magazine said it selected the ‘charming’ Gate City for the top spot due to its ‘up-and-coming’ downtown, recreation options and proximity to Boston” (1-17-18). The city of Nashua’s website informs us that BAE is the largest employer in the city, and in addition: “A total of 130 defense contractors were awarded contracts between 2000 and 2012, which is indicative of how robust the defense industry has become in Nashua.”

    The New York Times reported that unlike many rustbelt cities, St. Cloud, MN “sustained its prosperity through a mix of the right investments, favorable geography and sheer serendipity.” It did not mention the bevy of military contracts in the area; a filtered search by zip code + Department of Defense in usaspending.gov explained the anomaly.

    Rebecca Thorpe’s book, The American Warfare State: The Domestic Politics of Military Spending, relates that after WW II many rural and semirural areas became economically dependent on defense spending; their representatives filled the bill regardless of an absent or negative national security impact.

    The juicy profits create oases of civilized existence in terms of social services, education, and the arts. Their lucrative investment returns enrich many museums, charitable institutions, churches, and public workers’ pension funds. Contractor philanthropy supports the arts, education, and environmental and social justice efforts.

    Weapons are just one part of the picture; construction, technology, cybersecurity, and intelligence firms also secure huge contracts. Logistics represent a large chunk of the budget: food, transport, janitorial, guarding, and others. For example, DoD contracts for janitorial services, clothing, and furniture with Goodwill Industries, Lighthouse for the Blind, and other nonprofit corporations employing disabled people, veterans, and people with chronic difficulty finding work. These form a significant part of the lowest income working class, and are similar to jobs programs of the depression-era Works Progress Administration. As Nancy Rose explains in Put to Work, our government back then also used contractors, including for-profit businesses, as administrators.

    The DoD’s landscaping and environmental remediation needs provide work for businesses such as Environmental Alternatives, Inc. in Swanzey, NH, which provides nuclear decontamination. In addition, enormous contracts and grants are awarded to The Nature Conservancy and other nonprofit environmental organizations for services that include preventing encroachment near bombing ranges. Trout Unlimited also gets hooked into the picture.

    Support or silence for militarism is purchased by every kind of thing the military establishment needs: daycare, velcro, textbooks, conference hotels, safer cribs for family housing, microwave ovens, et al. In 2018 The New York Times noted that Granite Industries of Vermont in Barre “makes 3,500 to 4,000 headstones a year for Arlington [National Cemetery]—a steady line of business in a town that has seen its stonework fortunes decline over time.” Nick Turse’s fine book, The Complex: How the Military Invades Our Everyday Lives, includes many more examples.

    Research funds go to industry, think tanks, hospitals, medical institutes, and universities. All types of science and technology research is DoD supported; Silicon Valley is an outgrowth of this command economy. Social scientists are not neglected; for example, anthropologists were used to create the controversial Human Terrain System. The Minerva Research Initiative funds political scientists; a recent study asks: “How do citizens within countries hosting U.S. military personnel view that presence?” and concludes: “We find that contact with U.S. military personnel or the receipt of economic benefits from the U.S. presence increases support for the U.S. presence, people, and government.” That may very well be the case, but one wishes for an investigation funded by a neutral sponsor.

    There has been fine reporting on problems and protests at overseas and US colony bases: books such as Gerson and Birchard, The Sun Never Sets; Lutz, The Bases of Empire; Vine, Base Nation; Turse’s article, “Bases, Bases, Everywhere… Except in the Pentagon’s Report;” and the video, Standing Army. However, a comprehensive and objective study of the political, cultural, and economic impact of occupation entities would require funding that is rarely available to those without ties to the national security state.

    In addition to the bases, military contracts, including weapon parts, bioweapons research, and intelligence, have been outsourced throughout the world; thus we also export military Keynesianism. Construction firms employing US personnel, locals, and third country workers provide economic stimulus both over here and over there. The new NATO headquarters in Brussels, costing over a billion dollars, is a symbol of the capitalist democracies “command economies,” now with satellites under the “Uranium Curtain.”

    In the US, the national security state apparatus goes far beyond the DoD. The Departments of Energy, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security are obviously involved; Agriculture, Commerce, State, Interior, and others also get into the act. The Department of State coordinates overseas military training, which is required for all purchasers of weapons. Its most recent report indicates that in “Fiscal Year (FY) 2017, approximately 78,700 students from 155 countries participated in training.” In addition to direct aid and warfare “fairs,” the generous financing of foreign sales boosts contractor profits. Offshoring of supposedly obsolete weapons enables Congress to fund the next best lethal thing.

    To insure a steady priming of the pump, there are organizations of contractor lobbyists, such as the National Defense Industrial Association, with chapters in most states.

    One of the most militant is the Washington [state] Military Alliance; its membership includes industries and most of the state’s local economic development councils. It is supported both by the state and funds from the DoD (give those who lobby you a leg up). Washington state government also has a Military Department. The state is heavily militarized already, including the notorious Hanford site, but it wants these benefits to keep coming.

    Economic stimulation, with its silencing effect, does not radiate solely from contractor locales. There is the military establishment itself. Estimated current personnel is 1.4 million active duty, 800,000 reserve and national guard, and 750,000 civilian employees. Veterans, numbering about 18 million, are prominent in businesses, nonprofits, and elected and appointed government positions. There is a large array of patriotic and veterans organizations, most of which, but not all (for example, Veterans for Peace) banging the drum for militarism. In addition to the traditional membership groups such as the American Legion, there are now many created by foundations and the DoD itself to assist in transition to civilian life. Some urge retired officers to seek leadership of nonprofit organizations; others convert “Troops to Teachers,” or with the Student Conservation Association, to careers in conservation. There is also one, the Armed Services Arts Partnership, for training as a stand-up comedian.

    Educational institutes of the military exist far beyond the service academies. The National Defense University system has more than 150 components, including the Naval War College, the University of Health Sciences, and the Defense Acquisition University. Many of these, as well as the Western Hemisphere Institute of Security Cooperation (formerly known as School of the Americas at Fort Benning, GA) and the US Army JFK Special Warfare Center and School in Ft. Bragg, NC, also train foreign military and civilians.

    Much training occurs overseas, through the State Department’s International Military Education and Training (IMET) program or in institutes such as the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Germany or the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

    The land-grant universities were always intended to include military research and training. Private institutions, such as Norwich University in Vermont, are also major military training centers. A ranking of the 100 most militarized universities in the US includes many of our distinguished institutions as well as some that are mostly distance learning and primarily feeders for national security agencies. In addition to research contracts, universities with ROTC (reserve officer training corps) programs receive DoD funding.

    More than 3,000 U.S. high schools (and some junior high schools) have Junior ROTC programs. DoD funding can make a significant difference in these districts and permit clean and sharp facilities that contrast with poorly funded local schools. Chicago has 6 public high schools that are military academies; all students must be in JROTC. Often parents who are not particularly interested in the military aspect may nevertheless enroll their children in the newer and more disciplined academies. Not too many of these children end up as military officers, but all JROTC instruction has a military perspective.

    The Army Corps of Engineers, also part of the DoD budget, entail vast expenditures for recreational sites, water projects, and military related construction. Throughout the nation there are ACE created and maintained places like the one near me:

    Otter Brook Lake offers many recreational opportunities that everyone can enjoy. It offers a picnic area with 90 tables and 55 fireplace grills; swimming on a 400-foot-long beach; a boat ramp; boating for canoes, rowboats, sailboats, and motorboats (no wake); and sanitary facilities. During the winter, visitors enjoy cross-country skiing, ice fishing, snowshoeing, and snowmobiling.

    Military bases in the United States and “territories” are significant hubs of economic stimulation. The most recent Base Structure Report lists 4,150 sites within the US, and 111 in territories, but not all are substantial bases. Of the 368 sites listed for California (which has the most bases), about 47 are considered major bases.

    The US mainland has the largest military bases in the world, some like small or medium size cities. The largest of all is Fort Bragg, in North Carolina, which has been excellently portrayed by anthropologist Catherine Lutz in Homefront. Other giants are Fort Hood, TX; Fort Benning, GA; Joint Base Lewis-McChord, WA; and Fort Campbell, KY. Some bases are villages with bombing ranges or seaside training areas. Among the 4,000+ DoD sites are listening posts, drone bases, armories, medical centers, educational institutes, recruiting stations, etc., but there are probably more than 400 bases with substantial acreage and personnel.

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    One way that communities near bases have increased prosperity is through DoD contracts for operating elementary and high schools for base children; administrative costs are included. This is especially welcome to poor school districts, but the 1% is not neglected. The Town of Lincoln, Massachusetts, has a 2 year $32 million contract to run Hanscom Air Force Base schools. Hanscom, despite its location near a superwealthy part of the country, is a superfund site. The military is an equal opportunity polluter.

    Many personnel live off base, and that benefits real estate sales and rentals, and hotel-motel chains, which offer housekeeping suites specifically for military families. Military personnel and civilian employees are customers for car rentals, supermarkets, restaurants, entertainment, Walmarts—the whole suburban mall scene. These businesses along with museums and recreational and historical sites, have ads on the bases’ websites.

    Base expansion and construction is itself a boon to local real estate interests. Frequent improvements to buildings, technical capacity, and measures against encroachments to bombing ranges also require expenditures, often massive, that benefit local as well as multinational corporations. For example, upgrades for cyber warfare at the Buckley AFB in Aurora, Colorado, part of the Air Force Space Command, have entailed many billions worth of contracts for weapons, technology, and construction companies.

    Team Buckley strives to be bold information technology investors who shape operations in, through and from cyberspace. Our emphasis is toward functioning and fighting as cyber warriors, defending our networks and core missions from attacks and preparing for offensive operations to execute when appropriate authorities direct.

    Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, another city-sized base in North Carolina, has “11 miles of amphibious operations beachfront.” The Student Conservation Association has recently been awarded a $13 million DoD grant for conservation assistance, with a special concern for the protection of endangered sea turtles.

    Closed and shrunk bases, often superfund sites, are still economic hubs. For one thing, the cleanup crews will be there for decades, and they also require local goods and services. Although billions have already been spent on base cleanup, the Government Accountability Office warns that much more must be spent to deal with “emerging contaminants.”

    New Boston Air Force Station, N.H, near my home, is a former bombing range and a superfund site. Now it is a more compact remote tracking station. The Air Force has determined that it has been cleaned up and currently offers much of its 2,600 acres for camping and recreational activities (for those with a military connection). It has 50 campsites, four ponds, and equipment rental including skis, snowboards, poles, boots, snowmobiles, popup trailers, kayaks, canoes and boats. Pease Air Force Base, another NH superfund site, was officially closed in 1991. Part of it is now an Air National Guard Base, while some of the area designated clean is a civilian commercial center.

    Upgraded, downgraded, or degraded, military sites have economic significance. The most unlikely tourist attraction is Hanford Nuclear Site, a decommissioned nuclear fuel production facility operated by the Department of Energy. Currently, the DOE

    “offers a variety of tours of the Hanford Site focusing on Hanford’s environmental cleanup mission. Hanford Site tours provide visitors the opportunity for a firsthand look at the progress of our environmental cleanup efforts, projects and facility operations.”

    If you are hotfooting it to Richland, WA for one of these tours, you are required to wear closed-toe shoes.

    Elected and appointed government officials, at all levels, and local economic development councils, are aware of the vital impact of the military budget, which often clouds their thoughts on the lethal activities that it supports. Even citizens with no direct connection to contracts, bases, contractor philanthropy, veterans’ benefits, et al, understand that without these their area might be a notch away from rustbelt status. Young people in many normal US towns see a military career as an alternative to a dead-end job. Retirees living a quiet life note the job opportunities for their children in military-related work, whether they are disabled, mechanics, environmentalists, scientists, or perhaps entertainers or artists in a charming city of weapons contractors.

    Yet this military economic salvation promotes Scarred Lands, Wounded Lives, as in the film of that name. The National Priorities Project and others have determined that government funding supporting the well-being of humans and the environment would have greater economic benefit, without the destruction of whole countries as well as our own land and people.

    How to make the change is the question; the problem is gigantic. It may be that our Romanesque empire is also a Greek tragedy. The ancient Athenian (semi)democracy was likewise influenced by propaganda and economic benefits. It voted for war, a likely destroyer of the Athenian experiment. Perhaps democracy—even the best of them are now increasingly militarized—is too much shaped by propaganda and majorities with benefits.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 22:25

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  • This Is How Self-Driving Cars "See" The World
    This Is How Self-Driving Cars “See” The World

    Modern cars bear little resemblance to their early ancestors, but the basic action of steering a vehicle has always remained the same. Whether you’re behind the wheel of a Tesla or a vintage Model T, turning the wheel dictates the direction of movement. However, as Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley details below, this simple premise, which places humans at the center of control, may be ripe for disruption as tech giants and car companies race toward a future that would render human-controlled vehicles obsolete.

    How does this next generation of self-driving cars “see” the road? Today’s video from TED-Ed explains one of the mind-bending innovations making autonomous vehicles a reality.

    Eye of the Laser

    Safely getting a vehicle and its passengers from point A to B is no simple matter.

    First, weather and time of day can create a wide variety of challenging situations, affecting things like visibility, braking distances, or speed. Next, other vehicles, bikes, and pedestrians are constantly moving through the transportation network, sometimes in unpredictable ways. To further complicate matters, the road network is rarely in optimum form. Road lines fade and construction can throw ambiguous detours into the mix.

    Sensing and analyzing the world at a granular level is crucial in making self-driving cars a viable transportation option. To solve this problem, new generations of autonomous vehicles are using photonic integrated circuits, as well as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) to generate an extremely nuanced picture of the road ahead.

    How self-driving cars see the world. (Source: Hesai)

    LiDAR – which is related to RADAR – uses short laser pulses to sense the depth and shape of objects. Essentially, scattered bursts reflect off objects around the vehicle, painting a detailed 3D picture of its surroundings. LiDAR’s depth resolution is so accurate that it could eventually see details at the millimeter scale.

    A Dissenting Opinion

    While most companies in the autonomous vehicle space have fully embraced LiDAR, Tesla has a divergent point of view. The company employs a combination of GPS, cameras, and other sensors to help its cars visualize the world.

    LiDAR is a fool’s errand. Anyone relying on LiDAR is doomed.

    – Elon Musk

    Society and Self-Driving Cars

    While companies like Uber and Waymo determine the functional mechanics of self-driving cars, the rest of society is left to ponder how this new technology will affect employment, privacy, and personal autonomy.

    In the U.S., more than 70% of goods are moved by truck, and over 80% of commuters take a private vehicle to work on any given day. Even partial automation of the nation’s transportation network will have wide-sweeping impacts on the economy.

    As AI-powered cars and trucks hit the streets at scale, how cars see the road will be a detail most of us will overlook. The bigger question will be whether we are ready for a society where we’re no longer in the driver’s seat.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 22:05

  • Elizabeth Warren Fires National Organizing Director Over "Inappropriate Behavior"
    Elizabeth Warren Fires National Organizing Director Over “Inappropriate Behavior”

    The Elizabeth Warren campaign has fired its national organizing director, Rich McDaniel, over allegations of “inappropriate behavior,” according to Politico

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    “Over the past two weeks, senior campaign leadership received multiple complaints regarding inappropriate behavior by Rich McDaniel,” said Warren spokesperson Kristen Orthman. 

    “Over the same time period, the campaign retained outside counsel to conduct an investigation. Based on the results of the investigation, the campaign determined that his reported conduct was inconsistent with its values and that he could not be a part of the campaign moving forward.” 

    A person familiar with the investigation said that there were no reports of sexual assault, but could not comment further due to confidentiality. The investigation was conducted by attorney Kate Kimpel and her firm KK Advising, according to the person. –Politico


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 21:48

    Tags

  • Salesforce CEO: "I Strongly Believe That Capitalism As We Know It Is Dead"
    Salesforce CEO: “I Strongly Believe That Capitalism As We Know It Is Dead”

    During a ‘fireside chat’ in front of a packed audience at TechCrunch Disrupt San Francisco, Salesforce founder and Time Magazine owner Marc Benioff shared his thoughts on a range of issues, including the important role public markets play in “cleansing” companies of “all of the bad stuff that they have” (for those who followed the WeWork imbroglio, this ought to make sense), and, more broadly, the future of American capitalism.

    The TechCrunch event, which, after being immortalized by the Show “Silicon Valley”, has become an annual must-attend summit for all of the power players and wannabes in the Bay Area tech scene, typically hosts big-name speakers. And Benioff was no exception. Speakers are encouraged to be candid, and the Salesforce impresario didn’t hold back, it appears.

    Speaking about the importance of public markets, Benioff said the “great reckoning” that public markets provide is a critical step for young companies.

    “What public markets do is indeed the great reckoning. But it cleanses [a] company of all of the bad stuff that they have.”

    Benioff cited WeWork and Uber as examples of companies that could have benefited from an earlier public offering.

    “I can’t believe this is the way they were running internally in all of these cases,” Benioff said. “They are staying private way too long.”

    Benioff added that “trust” is the most important value for an entrepreneur.

    “If the highest value [you anchor your company around] isn’t trust, then every key stakeholder – your employees, your customers and your investors – will walk out,” Benioff said.

    Soon, Benioff moved on to an even weightier subject: The destiny of American capitalism. To which Benioff insisted that capitalism in the US is “under siege”, and that corporate stakeholders are beginning to wake up and realize that corporations should be responsible for more than simply generating profits for their shareholders.

    Benioff’s comments come as several high-profile business leaders and financiers have assailed American capitalism and discussed the need for combating economic inequality.

    We can now add Benioff’s inflammatory comment about capitalism to the growing list of soundbites.

    “I really strongly believe that capitalism as we know it is dead… that we’re going to see a new kind of capitalism and that new kind of capitalism that’s going to emerge is not the Milton Friedman capitalism that’s just about making money,” said Benioff. “And if your orientation is just about making money, I don’t think you’re going to hang out very long as a CEO or a founder of a company.”

    Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio, one of the wealthiest men in the country, has made similar remarks in the past. But in a LinkedIn post published this week, Dalio warned that the dynamics driving markets today are similar to what drove markets during the last great downturn in the 1930s – a theory that Dalio hasn’t shied away from sharing over the past couple of years.

    Watch a clip from Benioff’s talk below:


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 21:39

  • Bernie Sanders Released From Hospital After Suffering Heart Attack
    Bernie Sanders Released From Hospital After Suffering Heart Attack

    On Wednesday, Bernie Sanders’ presidential nomination odds tumbled after what appeared to be an unfortunate event: his campaign said he was undergoing artery blockage surgery after Bernie suffered “chest discomfort” on Tuesday night and was found to have a blockage in one artery, after which he had two stents inserted. His campaign also said events are canceled “until further notice.”

    It is also unfortunate that his campaign appears to have embellished the 78-year-old Bernie’s health just a little, and according to a statement released late on Friday, the Vermont senator left a Las Vegas hospital days after the Democratic presidential candidate suffered what his physicians later confirmed was a heart attack.

    Sanders’s campaign released a statement from two physicians who said he had been diagnosed with a “myocardial infarction,” more commonly known as a heart attack.

    “After presenting to an outside facility with chest pain, Sen. Sanders was diagnosed with a myocardial infarction. He was immediately transferred to Desert Springs Hospital Medical Center,” treating physicians Arturo E. Marchand Jr. and Arjun Gururaj said in the statement Friday.

    “His hospital course was uneventful with good expected progress. He was discharged with instructions to follow up with his personal physician,” they added.

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    As previously reported, Sanders had two stents placed in a blocked coronary artery. He was spotted waving at cameras when leaving the Desert Springs Hospital Medical Center, with his campaign releasing a statement from the Vermont senator thanking doctors and staff for treating him.

    “I want to thank the doctors, nurses, and staff at the Desert Springs Hospital Medical Center for the excellent care that they provided. After two and a half days in the hospital, I feel great, and after taking a short time off, I look forward to getting back to work,” he said.

    In a video posted later on Twitter, Sanders talked about leaving the hospital, saying, “I’m feeling so much better.”

    “I just want to thank all of you for the love and warm wishes that you sent me. See you soon on the camping trail,” he said.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Sanders’s wife, Jane Sanders, said the Democratic presidential candidate was expected to return home to Burlington, Vt., by the end of the weekend after undergoing the heart procedure. The campaign said Wednesday that Sanders’s campaign events and appearances would be canceled until further notice but confirmed to The Hill on Thursday that he will participate in the next Democratic debate on Oct. 15.

    News of Sanders’s hospitalization put a new spotlight on the issue of age in the presidential race. Sanders has regularly polled among the top three contenders in the Democratic primary, with all of the candidates in their 70s. Former Vice President Joe Biden is 76 and Sen. Elizabeth Warren is 70. All of the Democrats are seeking the opportunity to go head-to-head next year against President Trump, who is 73.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 21:35

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Today’s News 4th October 2019

  • "We Must Give This Land New Life": Chernobyl Sees Surge In Tourism Thanks To HBO
    “We Must Give This Land New Life”: Chernobyl Sees Surge In Tourism Thanks To HBO

    The last few years haven’t been kind to the Ukrainian tourism industry. But finally an unlikely tourist attraction is seeing a huge increase in visitors, thanks to HBO.

    That’s right: As CNN reports, tourism to the Chernobyl power plant – including visits to the ruined control room for the doomed Reactor 4 – is booming. Thanks to the success of HBO’s five-part “Chernobyl” dramatization, people have been lining up to see the aftermath of the worst nuclear accident in human history at rates that are much higher than they have been historically.

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    However, for adventurous tourists, there is a catch: those who venture inside the highly radioactive area at the infamous Reactor 4 will be provided with white protective suits, helmets and masks during their visit. After leaving, visitors will be subjected to two radiology tests to measure their exposure.

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    In an effort to seize on the enthusiasm for all things “Chernobyl”, Ukrainian President Volydymyr Zelensky (you might remember him from his recent spate of appearances in the American press) signed a decree back in July to designate Chernobyl an official tourist attraction (to be sure, tourists have had access to the area since 2011).

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    Which is one way to turn a liability into an asset.

    “We must give this territory of Ukraine a new life,” Zelensky said when he signed the decree. “Until now, Chernobyl was a negative part of Ukraine’s brand. It’s time to change it.”

    Though tourists are already flocking to the site, the makeover isn’t yet finished. New infrastructure to support an increase in the stream of tourists must still be built.

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    Of course, safety is still a top concern. To that end, Zelensky recently announced a new metal dome that will be placed over the ruined Reactor 4 to prevent any more radioactive material from leaking out. That structure will be paid for by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The dome is being built to last a century, the EBRD said.

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    Chernobyl was once the epicenter of a 1,000-square-mile exclusion zone that was imposed after the 1986 meltdown. Soon, it will be crawling with tourists who, it must be said, will inevitably expose themselves to higher doses of radiation than is considered healthy.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 02:45

  • Will The Drive To Devalue The Dollar Lead To A Plaza Accord 2.0?
    Will The Drive To Devalue The Dollar Lead To A Plaza Accord 2.0?

    Authored by Ronald-Peter Stöferle via The Mises Institute,

    The Lead-Up to the Plaza Accord

    To understand the Plaza Accord, one has to look back to August 15, 1971. On this day Richard Nixon closed the gold window. This step de facto ended the Bretton Woods system, which had been created in 1944 in the New Hampshire town of the same name and was formally terminated in 1973. The era of gold-backed currency was well and truly over; the era of flexible exchange rates had begun. Without a gold anchor, the exchange rate of every currency pair was supposed to be driven exclusively by supply and demand. National central banks — and indirectly governments as well — were at liberty to make their own decisions, free of the tight restrictions imposed by a gold standard, but they had to bear the costs of their decisions in the form of the devaluation or appreciation of their currencies. While a gold-backed currency aims to impose discipline on nations, a system of flexible exchange rates enables national idiosyncrasies to be preserved, with the exchange rate serving as a balancing mechanism.

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    However, unlike any other currency system, the system of free-floating currencies invites governments and central banks to manipulate exchange rates practically at will. Without reciprocal agreements, which can provide planning security to export-oriented companies in particular, the danger of international chaos is very high, as the system of flexible exchange rates lacks an external anchor.

    In order to prevent this chaos, a repetition of the traumatic devaluation spiral of the 1930s, and the resulting disintegration of the global economy, IMF member nations agreed in 1976 at a meeting in Kingston, Jamaica, that “the exchange rate should be economically justified. Countries should avoid manipulating exchange rates in order to avoid the need to regulate the balance of payments or gain an unfair competitive advantage.” And in this multilateral spirit — albeit under an US initiative that was strongly tinged by self-interest — an agreement was struck nine years later that has entered the economic history books as the Plaza Accord.

    Macroeconomic Excesses in the 1980s?

    In the first half of the 1980s the US dollar appreciated significantly against the most important currencies. In five years the dollar rose by around 150% against the French franc, almost 100% against the Deutschmark, and intermittently 34.2% against the yen (from the January 1981 low).

    The significant appreciation of the US dollar was of course reflected in the US Dollar Index, which consists of the currencies of the most important US trading partners, weighted according to their share of trade with the US. The following chart, moreover, shows exchange rates in real terms — i.e., it takes price levels into account, which can vary substantially in some cases.

    Real trade-weighted US Dollar Index, 03/1973=100, 01/1980–12/1989

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    Source: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG

    From an interim low of 87.7 in July 1980, the index rose by about 50% to 131.6 by March 1985. Not surprisingly, the US current account balance deteriorated significantly in the first half of the 1980s as a result of this substantial dollar rally, as the following chart shows.

    Current account balance, US, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Japan, in % of GDP, 1980–1989

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    Source: World Bank, Quandl, Incrementum AG

    In 1980 and 1981 the US still posted a moderate surplus, but by 1985 this surplus had turned into a deficit of 2.9%. The trend in Germany and Japan was almost a perfect mirror image. While the two export nations had current account deficits of 1.7% and 1.0% in 1980, their current account balances turned positive in 1981 and 1982, respectively. In 1985, they already posted surpluses of 2.5% and 3.6%. Germany’s current account surplus in particular grew even further in subsequent years.

    The Plaza Accord

    Representatives of the US, Germany, Japan, France, and Great Britain, a.k.a. the G5 countries, met in September 1985 at the Plaza Hotel in New York under the leadership of US Treasury Secretary James Baker in order to coordinate their economic policies. Their declared aim was to reduce the US current account deficit, which they planned to accomplish by weakening the overvalued US dollar. Moreover, the US urged Germany and Japan to strengthen domestic demand by expanding their budget deficits, which was supposed to give US exports a shot in the arm.

    In the Plaza Accord, the five signatory nations agreed to cooperate more closely when cooperation made sense. The criterion cited for adopting a joint approach was “deviation from fundamental economic conditions.” Interventions in the foreign exchange market were to be conducted with the aim of combating current account imbalances. In the short term the target was a 10%–12% devaluation of the US dollar relative to its level of September 1985.

    The immediate outcome of the agreement was as desired. One week after the Plaza Accord had been signed, the Japanese yen gained 11.8% against the US dollar, while the German mark and the French franc gained 7.8% each, and the British pound 2.8%. However, the speed of the adjustment in foreign exchange markets continued to be the same as before the Plaza agreement, as the following chart clearly shows.

    USD exchange rate vs. DEM, FRF, JPY, GBP, 01/01/1980=100, 01/1980–09/1985

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    Source: fxtop.com, Incrementum AG

    However, the charts also show quite clearly that the depreciation of the US dollar had already begun several months before the official agreement was concluded in the heart of Manhattan. The Dollar Index had reached its peak in March of 1985, i.e., half a year before the Plaza Accord.

    Plaza Accord 2.0?

    Some people propose the creation of a new version of the Plaza Accord, i.e., a multilateral agreement that includes, inter alia, coordinated intervention in foreign exchange markets. The proponents of a Plaza Accord 2.0 point to the appreciation of the US dollar by almost 40% (particularly in the years 2011–2016), and to the large differences between the current account balances of the leading developed countries. However, such an agreement would represent a new turning point in international currency policy. After all, in 2013 the G8 agreed to refrain from foreign exchange interventions — in a kind of Anti-Plaza Accord.

    The following chart illustrates the significant appreciation of the US dollar in recent years.

    Real trade-weighted US Dollar Index, 03/1973 = 100, 01/2011–04/2019

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    Source: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG

    And just as was the case thirty years ago, the US has a significant and persistent current account deficit, while Germany, Japan — and these days also China — have significant surpluses. Germany’s surplus, which intermittently reached almost 9%, is particularly striking.

    Current account balances of US, Germany, France, Great Britain, Japan, China, in % of GDP, 2010–2017

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    Source: World Bank, Quandl, Incrementum AG

    Long before Donald Trump weighed in on the issue, the US Treasury — which is in charge of the US dollar’s external value — repeatedly stressed that the dollar was too strong, especially compared to the renminbi. Time and again the US accused China, Japan, and the eurozone of keeping their currencies at artificially low levels in order to support their export industries. The fact that Donald Trump used the term manipulation in a tweet came as a bit of a surprise, as the US has not used this term officially since 1994.

    In any case, such a significant adjustment in exchange rates would have to be implemented gradually; the risk of creating further distortions would be too great. An abrupt adjustment of rates might result in, for example, a significant increase in the pace of US inflation and/or a collapse of the export sectors of countries whose currencies would appreciate.

    But as exchange rates — at least in the medium to long term — are mainly determined by fundamentals, exchange rates can change substantially only if underlying macroeconomic conditions (real interest rate differentials, trade and current account balances, the investment climate, and budget balances) change. Regardless of how powerful a government or how watertight an international agreement is, those who enter an agreement cannot get past this fact. As Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk has stated explicitly: “The most imposing dictate of power can never effect anything in contradiction to the economic laws of value, price, and distribution; it must always be in conformity with these; it cannot invalidate them; it can merely confirm and fulfill them.”


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 02:00

  • New Weapons & The New Tactics Which They Make Possible: Three Examples
    New Weapons & The New Tactics Which They Make Possible: Three Examples

    Via The Saker blog,

    There are probably hundreds of books out there about the so-called “Revolution in Military Affairs”, some of them pretty good, most of them very bad, and a few very good ones (especially this one). For a rather dull and mainstream discussion, you can check the Wikipedia article on the RMA. Today I don’t really want to talk this or similar buzzwords (like “hybrid warfare” for example). Frankly, in my experience, these buzzwords serve two purposes:

    1. to sell (books, articles, interviews, etc.)

    2. to hide a person’s lack of understanding of tactics, operational art and strategy.

    This being said, there are new things happening in the realm of warfare, new technologies are being developed, tested and deployed, some extremely successfully.

    In his now famous speech, Putin revealed some of these new weapons systems, although he did not say much about how they would be engaged (which is quite logical, since he was making a political speech, not a military-technical report). For those would be interested in this topic, you can check hereherehereherehere and here.

    The recent Houthi drone and missile strike on the Saudi oil installations has shown to the world something which the Russians have known for several years: that even rather primitive drones can be a real threat. Sophisticated drones are a major threat to every military out there, though Russia has developed truly effective (including cost-effective, which is absolutely crucial, more about that later) anti-drone capabilities.

    First, lets look at the very low-cost end of the spectrum: drones

    Let’s begin with the primitive drones. These are devices which, according to one Russian military expert, roughly need a 486 CPU, about 1MB of RAM, 1GB of harddisk space and some (now extremely cheap) sensors to capture the signals from the US GPS, the Russian GLONASS or both (called “GNSS”). In fact, the “good terrorists” in Syria, financed, assisted and trained by the “Axis of Kindness” (USA/KSA/Israel) have been attacking the Russian base in Khmeimim with swarms of such drones for years.According to the commander of the air defenses of Khmeiminover 120(!) drones were shot down or disabled by Russian air defenses in just the last two years. Obviously, the Russians know something that some “Axis of Kindness” does not.

    The biggest problem: missile systems should not be used against drones

    Some self-described “specialists” have wondered why Patriot missiles did not shoot down the Houthi drones. This is asking the wrong question because missiles are completely ineffective in engaging attacking drone swarms. And, for once, this is not about the poor performance of Patriot SAMs. Even Russian S-400s are the wrong systems to use on individual drones or drone swarms. Why? Because of the following characteristics of drones:

    1. they are typically small, with a very special low profile, extremely light and made up of materials which minimally reflect radar signals;

    2. they are very slow, which does not make it easier to shoot them down, but much harder, especially since most radars are designed to track and engage very fast targets (aircraft, ballistic missiles, etc.);

    3. they can fly extremely low, which allows them to hide; even lower than cruise missiles flying NOE;

    4. they are extremely cheap, thus wasting multi-million dollar missiles on drones costing maybe 10-20 dollars (or even say, 30,000 dollars for the very high end) makes no sense whatsoever;

    5. they can come in swarms with huge numbers; much larger than the number of missiles a battery can fire.

    From the above, it is obvious how drones should be engaged: either with AA cannons or by EW systems.

    In theory, they could also be destroyed by lasers, but these would require a lot of power, thus engaging cheapo drones with them is possible, but not optimal.

    It just so happens that the Russians have both, hence their success in Khmeimim.

    One ideal anti-drone weapon would be the formidable Pantsir which combines multi-channel detection and tracking (optoelectronics, radar, IR, visual, third-party datalinks, etc.) and a powerful cannon. And, even better, the Pantsir also has powerful medium range missiles which can engage targets supporting the drone attack.

    The other no less formidable anti-drone system would be the various Russian EW systems deployed in Syria.

    Why are they so effective?

    Let’s look at the major weaknesses of drones

    First, drones are either remotely controlled, or have onboard navigation systems. Obviously, just like any signal, the remote signal can be jammed and since jammers are typically closer to the intended target than the remote control station, it is easier for it to produce a much stronger signal since the strength of a signal diminishes according to the so-called “inverse square law“. Thus in terms of raw emission power, even a powerful signal transmitted far away is likely to lose to a smaller, weaker, signal if that one is closer to the drone (i.e. near the intended target along the likely axis of attack). Oh sure, in theory one could use all sorts of fancy techniques to try to avoid that (for example frequency-hopping, etc.) but these very quickly dramatically raise the weight and cost of the drone. You also need to consider that the stronger the signal from the drone, the bigger and heavier the onboard power cells need to be, and the heavier the drone is.

    Second, some drones rely on either satellite signals (GPS/GLONASS) or inertial guidance. Problem #1: satellite signals can be spoofed. Problem #2 inertial guidance is either not that accurate or, again, heavier and more costly.

    Some very expensive and advanced cruise missiles use TERCOM, terrain contour matching, but that is too expensive for light and cheap drones (such advanced cruise missiles and their launchers is what the S-3/400s were designed to engage, and that at least makes sense financially). There are even more fancy and extremely expensive cruise missile guidance technologies out there, but these are simply not applicable to weapons like drones with their biggest advantage being simple technology and low costs.

    The truth is that even a non-tech guy like me could build a drone ordering all the parts from online stores such as Amazon, AliBaba, Banggood and tons of others and build pretty effective drones to, say, drop a hand grenade or some other explosive on an enemy position. Somebody with an engineering background could easily build the kind of drones the “good terrorists” have used against the Russians in Syria. A country, even a poor one and devastated by a genocidal war, like Yemen, could very easily build the kind of drones used by the Houthis, especially with Iranian and Hezbollah help (the latter two have already successfully taken remote control of US and Israeli drones respectively).

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    Finally, I can promise you that right now, in countries like the DPRK, China, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Venezuela, Cuba, etc, there are teams of engineers working on the development of very low cost drones just like there are teams of military analysts developing new tactics of engagement.

    This is, I submit, the first not-so-noticed (yet) kinda-revolution in military affairs.

    Second, lets look at the very high end: 5th+ generation aircraft and 5-6th generation UAVs

    While some in India have declared (for political reasons and to please the USA) that the Su-57 was not “really” a 5th generation aircraft (on the pretext that the first ones were deployed with 4th gen engines and because the Su-57 did not have the same kind of all-aspect RCS which the F-22 has), in Russia and China the debate is now whether the Su-57 is really only a 5th generation aircraft or really a 5th + or even 6th generation one. Why?

    For one thing, rumors coming out of the Sukhoi KB and the Russian military is that the pilot in the Su-57 is really an “option”, meaning that the Su-57 was designed from the start to operate without any pilot at all. My personal belief is that the Su-57 has an extremely modular design which currently does require a human pilot and that the first batch of S-57s will probably not fly all alone, but that the capability to remove the human pilot to be replaced by a number of advanced systems has been built-in, and that the Russians will deploy pilot-less Su-57’s in the future.

    This 3rd, 4th, 5th and now even 6th generation business is a little too fuzzy for my taste, so I rather avoid these categories and I don’t see a point in dwelling on them. What is important is what weapons systems can do, not how we define them, especially for a non-technical article like this one.

    In the meantime, the Russians have for the first time shown this:

    What you are seeing here is the following:

    A Su-57 flies together with the new long range Russian strike drone: the Heavy Strike UAV S-70 Hunter and here is what the Russian MoD has recently revealed about this drone:

    • Range: 6,000km (3,700 miles)

    • Ceiling: 18,000m (60,000 feet)

    • Max speed: 1,400km/h (1,000mph)

    • Max load: 6,000kg (12,000lbs)

    Furthermore, Russian experts are now saying that this UAV can fly alone, or in a swarm, or in a joint flight with a manned Su-57. I also believe that in the future, one Su-57 will probably control several such heavy strike drones.

    Flag-waving patriots will immediately declare that the S-70 is a copy of the B-2. In appearance that is quite true. But consider this: the max speed of the B-2 is, according to Wikipedia, 900km/h (560 mph). Compare that with the 1,400km/h (1,000mph) and realize that a flying wing design and a supersonic flying wing design are completely different platforms (the supersonic stresses require a completely different structural design)

    What can a Su-57 do when flying together with the S-70?

    Well, for one thing since the S-70 has a lower RCS than the Su-57 (this according to Russian sources) the Su-57 uses the S-70 as a long range hostile air defense penetrator tasked with collecting signals intelligence and relaying those back to the Su-57. But that is not all. The Su-57 can also use the S-70 to attack ground targets (including SEAD) and even execute air-to-air attacks. Here the formidable speed and huge 6 tons max load of the S-70 offer truly formidable capabilities, including the deployment of heavy Russian air-to-air, air-to-ground and air-to-ship capabilities.

    Some Russian analysts have speculated that in order to operate with the S-70 the Su-57 has to be modified into a two-seater with a WSO operating the S-70 from the back seat. Well, nobody knows yet, this is all top secret right now, but I think that this idea clashes with the Sukhoi philosophy of maximally reduce the workload of the pilot. True, the formidable MiG-31 has a WSO, even the new MiG-31BM, but the design philosophy at the MiG bureau is often very different from what the folks at Sukhoi develop and, besides, 4 decades stand between the MiG-31 and the Su-57. My personal guess is that the operations of the S-70 will be mostly full automated and even distributed along the network connecting all integrated air and ground based air defense systems. If an engineer reads these lines, I would appreciate any comments or corrections! After all, this is just my best guess.

    The usual gang of trolls will probably object that the Russian computer/chip industry is so far behind the supposedly much superior western solid-state electronics that this is all nonsense; there was a human sitting inside the S-70; this thing don’t fly; the Su-57 is a 4th gen aircraft much inferior to the amazingly superb F-22/F-35; and all the rest of it. Especially for them, I want to remind everybody that Russia was the first country to deploy airborne phased array radars on her MiG-31s which, to boot, were capable of exchanging targeting data by encrypted datalinks with FOUR (!) other aircraft maintaining EM silence (while using their optoelectronics and relaying that data back). Furthermore, these MiG-31s could also exchange data with airborne (AWACS) and ground-based (SAMs) radars. And that was in the early 1980s, almost 40 years ago!

    The truth is that the Soviet armed forces deployed plenty of network-centric systems long before the West, especially in the Soviet Air Force and Navy (while the Soviet Ground-Forces pioneered the use of so-called RSC “reconnaissance-strike complexes” which were the nightmare of NATO during the Cold War). Nowadays, all we need to do is parse the NATO whining about Russian Anti Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities to see that the Russians are still pioneering advanced military-technical capabilities which the West can only dream of.

    Now let’s revisit some of the recent criticisms of the Su-57

    So what about the fact that the Su-57 does not have all-around very low RCSWhat ifthe Su-57 was never intended to spearhead the penetration of advanced and integrated air defense systems? What if from day 1 the Sukhoi designers were warned by their colleagues at Almaz-AnteyNovatorKRET or even the good folks at the OSNAZ (SIGINT) and the 6th Directorate of the GRU that “stealth” is vastly over-rated?What if it was clear to the Russians from day 1 that a low frontal-RCS did not compromise other capabilities as much as a quasi-total reliance on all-aspect low-RCS never to be detected in the first place?

    The crucial thing to keep in mind is that new technological capabilities also generate new tactics. By the way, western analysts understand that, hence the new network-centric capabilities of the F-35. This is especially true since the F-35 will be a pathetic dogfighter whereas the Su-57 might well be the most capable one out there: did you know that the Su-57 has several radars besides the main one, that they cover different bands and that they give the Su-57 a 360 degree vision of the battlefield, even without using the signals from the S-70, AWACS or ground based SAM radars?). And in terms of maneuverability, I will just show this and rest my case:

    Lastly, the case of the invisible missile container 

    Remember the Kalibr cruise-missile recently seen in the war in Syria. Did you know that it can be shot from a typical commercial container, like the ones you will find on trucks, trains or ships? Check out this excellent video which explains this:

    Just remember that the Kalibr has a range of anywhere between 50km to 4,000km and that it can carry a nuclear warhead. How hard would it be for Russia to deploy these cruise missiles right off the US coast in regular container ships? Or just keep a few containers in Cuba or Venezuela? This is a system which is so undetectable that the Russians could deploy it off the coast of Australia to hit the NSA station in Alice Springs if they wanted, and nobody would even see it coming. In fact, the Russians could deploy such a system on any civilian merchant ship, sailing under any imaginable flag, and station it not only anywhere off the US coastline, but even in a US port since most containers are never examined anyways (and when they are, it is typically for drugs or contraband). Once we realize this, all the stupid scaremongering about Russian subs off the coast of Florida become plain silly, don’t they?

    Now let’s look at some very interesting recent footage from the recent maneuvers in Russia:

    Here is what the person who posted that (Max Fisher, here is his YT channel) video wrote about this coastal defense system, explaining it very well:

    For the first time, during the tactical exercises of the tactical group of the Northern Fleet, carrying combat duty on the island of Kotelny, the coastal missile system “Bastion” was used The BRK was successful in firing a supersonic Onyx anti-ship cruise missile at a sea target located over 60 kilometers in the Laptev Sea, which confirmed its readiness to effectively carry out combat duty in the Arctic and perform tasks to protect the island zone and the Russian coast. Onyx is a universal anti-ship cruise missile. It is designed to combat surface naval groups and single ships in the face of strong fire and electronic countermeasures. On the basis of the rocket, there are two seemingly absolutely identical export options: the Russian Yakhont and the Indian BrahMos, but with significantly reduced combat characteristics. These vehicles are capable of starting from under water: they have a flight speed of 750 meters per second and carry the crushing high-explosive warhead with a weight of half a ton. The range of their flight is more than 600 kilometers. Previously, Rubezh BRK was used as the main coastal missile system of the tactical group of the Northern Fleet. At the end of August, he successfully hit two targets “Termit” missiles installed in the Laptev Sea at a distance of more than 50 kilometers from the coast.

    Now let me ask you this: how hard would you think it would be for Russia to develop a container size version coastal defense system using the technologies used in the Bastion/Yakhont/BrahMos missile systems? Since the AngloZionists have now reneged on The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Russians have already developed a land-based version of their Kalibr missile which is ready to deploy as soon as the US deploys any such missile in Europe.

    The fact is that Russia has perfected an entire family of ballistic and cruise missiles which can be completely hidden from detection and which can be deployed literally anywhere on the planet. Even with nuclear warheads.

    This capability completely changes all the previous US deterrence/containment strategies (which are still halfway stuck in the Cold War and halfway stuck with low-intensity/counter-insurgency operations like what they have been doing (with no success whatsoever!) in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and in Latin America and Africa).

    In the light of the above, what do you make of the steady flow of NATO ships deployed in the Black Sea to “deter” Russia? If you find it completely suicidal, I agree. In fact, all these ships are doing is allowing the Russians to train their crews on the “real thing”. But should it ever come to a shooting war, the life span of any and every NATO ship in the Black Sea would be measured in minutes. Literally!

    Now lets think of Iran. As I said many, many times, Russia will not enter a full-scale war against the combined powers of the “Axis of Kindness” on behalf of Iran (or any other country on the planet). But Russia very much might get seriously fed up with the “Axis of Kindness” and sell Iran any missile the Iranians would be willing to acquire. In the past I have often written that the real sign that Iran is about to be attacked would not be the presence of USN ships in the Strait of Hormuz or along the Iranian coast, but the opposite: a flushing out of all ships from the Strait itself and a careful repositioning of the bulk of the USN ships inside sea and land based US air defenses “umbrella” available at that moment. I can only imagine the nightmare for CENTCOM if Iran begins to acquire even a small number of Bastions or Kalibers or Yakhont or BrahMos missiles 

    Conclusion: the “Axis of Kindness” countries are in big, big trouble!

    The US and Israel have tremendous technological capabilities, and in normal times US specialists could gradually deploy systems capable of countering the kind of capabilities (not only necessarily Russian ones) we now see deployed in various areas of operations. And there sure is enough money, considering that the US alone spends more on the “promotion of kindness” than the rest of the planet combined! So what is the problem?

    Simple, the US Congress, which might well be the most corrupt parliament on the planet, is in the business of:

    1. Hysterically flag-waving and declaring any naysayers “un-American”

    2. Making billions for the US ruling nomenklatura

    Thus, to admit that the “shining city on the hill” and its “best armed forces in history” are rapidly falling behind foes which the US propaganda has described as “primitive” and “inferior” for decades is quite literally unthinkable for US politicians. After all, the US public might wonder why all these multi-billion dollar toys the US MIC has been producing in the last decades have not yielded a single success, never-mind a meaningful victory! Trump in his campaign tried to make that point. He was instantly attacked by the Dems for not supporting the “best military in history” and he quickly changed his tune. Now even the weapons the US does not even have yet are better than those already being tested and, possibly, deployed by Russia.

    This “feel good” approach to military issues is very nice, warm and fuzzy. But it sure does not make it possible to even identify present, or even less so, future dangers.

    Then, of course, there is the issue of money. The US, in its short history, has deployed some absolutely world class weapons systems in technologies. My personal favorites: the Willys MBm, also known as a Jeep, and the superb F-16. But there are many, many more. The problem with these, at least from the point of view of the US nomenklatura, is that they were designed for warfare, for the many and very different real-world battlefields out there. They were never designed to enrich the already fantastically rich!

    Hence the country which produced the Jeep now mostly produces massive hulks of metal which drive like crap, which constantly break, but which give the narcissistic and baseball cum sunglasses hat wearing left-lane male drivers a delightful feeling of macho superiority. And, of course, the country which created and deployed the formidable, yet economic, F-16 in the thousands (well over 4000 I think) now produces the F-35 (good thing that the US colonies like Poland or Japan are willing to buy them to please their beloved Uncle Shmuel).

    From the point of view of the US nomenklatura, the F-35 is a stunning, amazing, success, not a high-tech flying brick! The costs of this system are not the proof of the incompetence of US engineers, or the cluelessness of US military analysts. Rather, these costs are proof of the combined effects of infinite greed and self-worship of the US ruling class.

    Sadly, one of the best ways to learn the important lessons, is by means of a painful or catastrophic defeat. The Russia of today would not have been possible without the horrors of the “democratic rule” of Eltsin in the 1990s. Think of it: during the first Chechen war, the Russians had a hard time even finding one complete combat capable regiment and they had to use “combined battalions” (сводный батальон) instead. This will probably also happen to the USA.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 10/04/2019 – 00:05

  • Putin: China Ready To Buy As Much Soybeans, Wheat As Russia Can Produce Amid US Trade War
    Putin: China Ready To Buy As Much Soybeans, Wheat As Russia Can Produce Amid US Trade War

    There were a number of interesting comments made by President Putin today regarding Russia’s increasingly cozy relations with longtime rival China at the Valdai Discussion Club at Sochi on Thursday. “We are now helping our Chinese partners to create a missile-warning system, a missile-attack warning system,” Putin announced

    While slamming the recent US exit from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) as harming global stability, he added, “This is a very serious thing that will dramatically increase China’s defense capability, because only the U.S. and Russia have such a system now.”

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    Image via Sputnik 

    Immediately after his comments, which further come on the heels China’s elaborate military hardware-laden 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, Foreign Policy noted what’s become increasingly apparent as both Beijing and Moscow find themselves in the US administration’s cross hairs  with the latter grappling with the uncertain effects of Trump’s trade war, and the former under various sanctions:

    Most strikingly, Moscow is back in the picture, once again officially deemed to be Beijing’s best comrade-in-arms, in a throwback to the earliest years of the People’s Republic of China

    Though still in trial production, it’s expected that China will be among the first nations to acquire Russia’s S-500 anti-air missile system.

    This month Chinese media touted the next generation S-500’s capabilities as “greatly exceeding any active air defense system in the world,” according to a report in Sina news portal.

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    Russia’s deadly S-500 SAM system, still in trial production phase, via Pravda.ru

    Putin also made reference to deepening economic cooperation with Beijing, going so far as to claim China stands ready to buy as much soybeans and wheat as Russia can produce.

    Of course, there’s no way Russia could even come close to filling the gap left by China’s latest tariffs imposed on soybeans coming from the United States, which Putin acknowledged. 

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    “They are ready to buy from us as much as we can produce but the issue is we are not ready for this now… not yet ready for such volumes,” Putin said.

    And more generally Putin made an unprecedented defense of China over and against those seeking to “restrain” Russia’s powerful southeast neighbor.

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    A prior visit of Putin with China’s Xi, via the WSJ. 

    Regarding the attempts to restrain China: I think that by definition it is impossible. And if someone makes such attempts, he, the one who does it, will understand that it is impossible. And during those attempts, of course, will harm himself,” Putin said at Valdai’s plenary session.

    “In any case, I consider such a development of events to be destructive and harmful, while joining efforts to create an environment of friendly cooperation and finding common security systems for all, is what we should work on together,” the Russian president added.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/03/2019 – 23:45

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  • What's The Big Problem With Facial Recognition?
    What’s The Big Problem With Facial Recognition?

    Authored by Michael Maharrey via Tenth Amendment Center,

    The Oakland City Council recently gave final approval to an ordinance banning facial recognition in that city. This is part of a broader movement at the state and local level to ban outright or at least limit this invasive surveillance technology.

    So, what’s the big problem with facial recognition?

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    There are plenty.

    In the first place, it’s just not very accurate, especially when reading African American and other minority facial features. It gets it wrong a lot of the time.

    This isn’t just theoretical musing. During a test run by the ACLU of Northern California, facial recognition misidentified 26 members of the California legislature as people in a database of arrest photos.

    But as ACLU attorney Matt Cagle said, this isn’t a problem that can be fixed by tweaking an algorithm. There are more fundamental issues with facial recognition. Government use of facial recognition technology for identifying and tracking people en masse flies in the face of both the Fourth Amendment and constitutional provisions protecting privacy in every state constitution.

    Berkeley, California, City Councilmember Kate Harrison is pushing for a facial recognition ban in her city. In her recommendation of the ordinance, she pointed out the inherent constitutional problem with facial recognition.

    It eliminates the human and judicial element behind the existing warrant system by which governments must prove that planned surveillance is both constitutional and sufficiently narrow to protect targets’ and bystanders’ fundamental rights to privacy while also simultaneously providing the government with the ability to exercise its duties.

    Facial recognition technology automates the search, seizure and analysis process that was heretofore pursued on a narrow basis through stringent constitutionally-established and human-centered oversight in the judiciary branch. Due to the inherent dragnet nature of facial recognition technology, governments cannot reasonably support by oath or affirmation the particular persons or things to be seized. The programmatic automation of surveillance fundamentally undermines the community’s liberty.

    Facial recognition puts every person who crosses its path into a perpetual lineup without any probable cause. It tramples restrictions on government power intended to protect our right to privacy. It feeds into the broader federal surveillance state. And at its core, it does indeed fundamentally undermine liberty.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/03/2019 – 23:25

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  • US Army Readying Massive Order For M16A4 Assault Rifles
    US Army Readying Massive Order For M16A4 Assault Rifles

    Whether it’s because of the threat of war in the Middle East or maybe due to modernization efforts via the Pentagon, a new report from Defense Blog indicates that the U.S. Army Contracting Command is requesting two, 5-year fixed contracts for M16A4 assault rifles.

    Defense Blog initially found the announcement posted on FedBizOpps, the U.S. government’s main contracting website, dated Sept. 27, is asking private industry to fulfill two orders for assault rifles. Each order will include anywhere from 12 to 215,000 standard configuration M16A4 with backup iron sight and adapter rail system.

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    Selected vendors will be required to sign a license agreement with Colt’s Manufacturing Company, LLC. and the U.S. Government before manufacturing begins. Vendors will also be asked to sign a non-disclosure agreement to receive technical data on how to manufacture the M16A4.

    The US Marine Corps first adopted the M16A4 assault rifle in 1998. It was the standard-issued weapon of the USMC until 2015, replaced with the M4 carbine ever since.

    The M16A4 has been widely exported to U.S. allies, such as Thailand, Tunisia, and Turkey.

    The weapon is a gas-operated rifle and chambers a standard NATO 5.56×45 round. It has an effective range of 550 meters.

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    The weapon isn’t fully automatic, has a fire mode selector that the operator can switch to “safe,” “semi-auto,” and “3-round burst”.

    It’s unclear if the M16A4s are intended for U.S. service members, or will be sold to allies.

    Last month, we reported that the Army is closer to deploying a new service weapon that could soon replace the M16, M4, and M249 light machine gun sometime in the early 2020s.

    The Army announced in August that it selected three defense companies to deliver prototype weapons for the Next Generation Squad Weapons (NGSW) program. The new weapons must be lighter and able to penetrate the world’s most advanced body armor from at least 600 meters away, defense insiders say.

    The Army will test AAI/Textron, G.D., and Sig Sauer assault rifles in a 27-month test. The Army is expected to wrap up the test in 1H22 when it’s supposed to announce the winning design. By 2H22, the Army could start fielding the new weapons to combat units.

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    And with that being said, the new M16A4s are likely for export to allies rather than U.S. service members.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/03/2019 – 23:05

  • Trump Administration Provides New Evidence For A Saudi Connection To 9/11
    Trump Administration Provides New Evidence For A Saudi Connection To 9/11

    Authored by Philip Giraldi via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The debate over what actually occurred on 9/11 and, more to the point, who might have been behind it, continues to preoccupy many observers worldwide.

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    There is considerable legitimate concern that the commission that reviewed the incident engaged in a cover-up designed either to excuse a catastrophic failure on the part of the United States’ national security apparatus, or even connivance of federal agencies in the attack itself.

    And then there is the issue of possible foreign government involvement. The roles of the Saudi Arabian, Israeli and Pakistani governments and security services has never been adequately investigated in spite of the fact that all three countries had clear involvement with the mostly Saudi individuals who have been identified as the attackers. Beyond that, Israel had intelligence operatives that appeared to be celebrating the fall of the twin towers in real time, an involvement in what took place that has never been comprehensively looked at by law enforcement due to unwillingness to offend the Israelis.

    It was Saudi Arabia which had the most sustained and personal contact with some of the alleged hijackers. For years, families of victims have been seeking to find out more about the possible Saudi role, admittedly so they can sue the Kingdom in US courts under existing anti-terrorism legislation that dates from 2016 and is referred to as the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act. The Act permits lawsuits in the US directed against any country whose government supports international terrorism.

    The plaintiffs have won something of a victory recently with the Trump administration decision to declassify a key name of a Saudi official who has been long sought by the relatives of the victims. Under the terms of the information release, the government as well as the victims’ lawyers, who received the name under a “protective order,” have not been allowed to expose the name publicly.

    The declassified name, which came from an FBI investigative file, is, however, only a partial victory for the group that goes by the name 9/11 Families & Survivors United for Justice Against Terrorism. The release of other documents relating to the Saudi role is pending, possibly due to the Trump White House’s insistence on maintaining good relations with the Kingdom and more particularly with its Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but the plaintiffs wonder how it is possible that information on the attack should still be classified more than eighteen years after the fact.

    The name of the official is nevertheless important, even a “top priority,” because it is believed that he was a senior intelligence officer who was meeting with two men who may have assisted the alleged hijackers. The FBI even refers to it as “the primary piece of information that the plaintiffs in the 9/11 litigation have been seeking.”

    The Saudi Embassy in Washington has not commented on the report and the White House referred inquiries to the Justice Department, which did not comment beyond stating that it had been a top-level decision not to invoke the so-called “state secrets” privilege to keep the information classified.

    Previous exposure of a possible Saudi role in 9/11 came with the release of the redacted “28 pages” of the 9/11 report on July 15, 2016. To be sure there were extensive deletions from the text to protect names and sources, but the document produced by the White House was at the time reported to be largely complete. CIA Director John Brennan provided some damage control prior to the release by arguing that much of the information contained in the redacted section consisted of “raw” and untested information, suggesting that it might not be completely reliable, while some who had seen the full document revealed through leaks that there would be no “smoking gun” exposing direct Saudi involvement in 9/11.

    The release of the document produced a brief flurry in the media but, perhaps intentionally, the story disappeared amidst the avalanche of political convention reporting that summer. There was a great deal of new information, though most of it served to corroborate or expand on what was already known and reported. One snippet that was particularly interesting recounted how in 1999 two Saudi men on a flight from Phoenix to Washington DC for an alleged visit to the Saudi Embassy to attend a party asked numerous questions about the plane’s security and tried several times to enter the cockpit. They claimed their tickets were paid for by the Saudi Embassy.

    There is a direct link between some of the 9/11 hijackers and presumed agents of the Saudi government but the 28 pages do not provide any conclusive evidence demonstrating collusion. In fact, the snippets rather suggest that the Saudis were more likely keeping tabs on some citizens whom they quite rightly might have suspected as threatening to their own national security. There are several hints in the text that the Saudis were quite aggressively running their own operations against their diaspora citizens. It was noted several times that they failed to fully cooperate with US counter-terror investigators prior to 9/11, which would not be surprising if they were simultaneous acting independently.

    The key player in the story who directly assisted some hijackers, one Omar al-Bayoumi, has been described as a “non-official cover” intelligence officer, but the way his funding from the Embassy and other official sources fluctuated to pay him sometimes irregularly rather suggests that he might have been a source or informer, not an actual government case officer. Several other Saudis identified in the 28 pages also fit the same profile. Bayoumi was in regular contact with Fahad al-Thumairy, an employee of the Saudi consulate in Los Angeles, who may have been an actual intelligence officer and his controller.

    There was also considerable evidence that Saudi government-funded charities, some linked to the Royal Family, did fund the alleged hijackers but the FBI did not find evidence that the government or senior Saudi officials were involved. The US government concluded that the document did not demonstrate any intent by the government in Riyadh to enable its citizens to carry out a terrorist attack on US soil nor knowledge that anything like that might be developing.

    It should also be noted for what it’s worth that the Bush Administration clearly regarded Saudi Arabia as a special friend and directed the FBI and CIA to “back off” from aggressively investigating its intelligence operations in the US and globally. Whether that made any difference in terms of what subsequently transpired cannot be determined, just as the surfacing of a new name for the families of victims may not prove to materially affect the viability of a lawsuit directed against Saudi Arabia.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/03/2019 – 22:45

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  • "Dramatic Change" Ahead: Robots Are Coming For 200,000 US Banking Jobs
    “Dramatic Change” Ahead: Robots Are Coming For 200,000 US Banking Jobs

    A new report by Wells Fargo & Co., warns that nearly 200,000 US banking jobs are at risk of being displaced by robots. 

    As we’ve explained in the past, accelerating technological advances in automation, artificial intelligence, and machine learning have the potential to reshape the world in the 2020s through 2030. The collision of these forces could trigger economic disruption far greater than what was seen in the early 20th century.

    Across the financial industry, a new wave of investment, somewhere in the tune of $150 billion per year, is being spent on technology, that will “lead to lower costs, with employee compensation accounting for half of all bank expenses,” said Mike Mayo, a senior analyst at Wells Fargo Securities LLC. 

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    The Wells Fargo study, which was first reported by Bloomberg, indicates 20% to 33% of banking jobs will be slashed by 2030. Most affected will be back office, bank branch, call center, and corporate employees. Jobs related to tech sales, advising and consulting will be less affected, according to the study. 

    “It will be a dramatic change in contact centers, and these are both internal and external,” Michael Tang, a Deloitte partner who leads the consulting firm’s global financial-services innovation practice, said in the Wells Fargo report. “We’re already seeing signs of it with chatbots, and some people don’t even know that they’re chatting with an A.I. engine because they’re just answering questions.”

    Wells Fargo joins a handful of other major banks that have already detailed plans to cut a majority of their workforce by 2030 amid the rapid adoption of automation and artificial intelligence. 

    According to Coalition Development Ltd. data. R. Martin Chavez, an architect of Goldman Sachs’ push to automate its workforce, said last month, front-office headcount for investment banking and trading declined for the fifth consecutive year in 2018.

    In an earlier piece, we described how tens of millions of jobs across the world, and across various industries, would be lost because of robots by 2030. 

    The 2020s will be known as the great transformation period where corporate America abandons its workforce for automation. The coming job losses, due to automation, will be on par with the automation revolution of agriculture (the transition of farm workers into the industrial sector) from 1900 to 1940.

    Robots have so far increased three-fold since the Dot-Com bust. Momentum in automation trends suggests robots will multiply even quicker through the 2020s. The collision of automation in the economy will lead to more volatility, economic swings, and social unrest. 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/03/2019 – 22:25

  • Scientists Baffled: Unidentified Object Falls From Sky, Ignites Number Of Fires
    Scientists Baffled: Unidentified Object Falls From Sky, Ignites Number Of Fires

    Authored by Elias Marat via TheMindUnleashed.com,

    Typically when one hears about flaming, bright objects falling from the sky, one comes to a very simple conclusion—it must be a meteorite, burning as it falls through the Earth’s atmosphere.

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    However, last week in the south of Chile, residents on the island of Chiloe were shocked when a fireball plummeted all the way down to the ground, starting a number of firesCNET reports.

    Local property owner Bernardita Ojeda was among the residents impacted by what many assumed was a meteorite when a brush fire was sparked by the burning object.

    However, on Saturday, officials from the country’s National Geology and Mining Service (Sernageomin) reached the preliminary conclusion that the object could not have been a meteorite—for the simple reason that no evidence of any form of space rock could be found where the fires were started by the “luminous and incandescent object in the sky that fell in that location.”

    In a statement, the agency wrote:

    “Once in the Dalcahue area, geologists went to the site to examine the area of ​​the supposed impact. They worked at seven points corresponding to the burnt bushes, where they found no remains, vestiges or evidence of a meteorite falling.

    Likewise, and as part of the investigation, they interviewed local residents, who said they had not seen the fall of the supposed object or heard noises associated with the fall of a body of this nature.

    Preliminarily, professionals are ruling out the fall of a meteorite in this sector and, therefore, that the cause of burning thickets, has corresponded to that situation.” 

    So if Chile’s authorities are ruling out a meteorite, what could the falling heavenly body possibly be?

    As CNET correctly notes, these are by definition, UFOs:

    “Technically, we’re talking about unidentified flying objects. Yes, UFOs. Although nothing big or well-piloted enough to reopen The X-Files for, it would seem.”

    So this definitely wasn’t a flying saucer, if only because then we’d have some alien technology lying around, perhaps. Then was it a bit of litter that escaped the near-to-low-Earth orbit, a zone of space that’s known to be teeming with “zombie” satellites, shards from rockets, and all sorts of other debris left behind by the world’s space agencies?

    As Nature journal wrote last September:

    “Since the Soviet Union launched the first satellite, Sputnik, in 1957, the number of objects in space has surged, reaching roughly 2,000 in 1970, about 7,500 in 2000 and about 20,000 known items today. The two biggest spikes in orbital debris came in 2007, when the Chinese government blew up one of its satellites in a missile test, and in the 2009 Iridium–Cosmos collision.”

    In this case, a bit of flaming space junk appears to be the most plausible scenario, and one that leading Chilean astrophysicist Jose Maza told to national broadcaster TVN.

    The Sernageomin concluded:

    “In parallel, geologists collected soil samples for a more thorough and detailed analysis in the institution’s laboratory. Final conclusions will be announced in the coming weeks.”

    We wouldn’t be surprised if geologists manage to find small bits of metal and other human-manufactured bits of garbage, be it from old rocket boosters or from the hundreds of dead satellites spinning around our planet. And luckily, space debris very rarely hits the ground—although this may well have been an exception to the rule.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 10/03/2019 – 22:05

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