Oct 04

Today’s News 4th October 2023

  • EU Wants To Pay Off Hungary To The Tune Of €13BN So Orban Doesn't Veto Ukraine Aid
    EU Wants To Pay Off Hungary To The Tune Of €13BN So Orban Doesn’t Veto Ukraine Aid

    Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has long been an opponent of the mainstay of EU policy on Ukraine, having also persistently criticized Kiev for discrimination against Hungarian minorities, and demanding that a 2017 law restricting the use of minority languages be changed. He’s also refused to ratify Sweden’s entry into NATO.

    Orbán has further throughout the conflict stood against policies which escalate against Moscow, and has constantly warned against stumbling into a WW3 scenario involving direct NATO-Russia clash. He told Tucker Carlson in a recent interview that “the Third World War сould be knocking on our door so we have to be very careful.” With Budapest having been a consistent thorn in the side of the EU, Brussels now wants to pay the Hungarians off.

    AFP/Getty Images

    “The European Commission is preparing to unfreeze around €13 billion in funds for Hungary to try to avoid Prime Minister Viktor Orbán vetoing EU aid for Ukraine, in a move likely to draw criticism from the European Parliament,” Politico reports Tuesday.

    “The Commission needs the unanimous backing of the bloc’s 27 countries for an update to the EU’s long-term budget, which includes a €50 billion funding pot for Ukraine,” the report adds.

    Akin to what’s currently going down in Washington with a group of Republicans holding up Ukraine funding, Brussels may soon have its own Ukraine aid blockage problem. EU aid for Kiev which was previously approved runs out in December, hence the urgency for EU leadership in wanting to push through a new package.

    A week ago, Orbán gave a speech declaring Hungary will no longer support Ukraine in any way unless certain significant policies are changed both in Kiev and in the European Union.

    He stressed in the words given before parliament that “Hungary is doing everything for peace” but that “unfortunately the Russian-Ukrainian war continues, tens of thousands of people are victims.” Thus, he continued, “Diplomats must take control back from the hands of the soldiers, otherwise it will be in vain for women to wait for their sons and fathers and husbands to come home.”

    The Hungarian leader has stood against ratcheting Western sanctions on Moscow, instead choosing to maintain a generally positive diplomatic relationship with the Kremlin.

    He also a week ago charged that Kiev and its backers have cheated Budapest by “Ukrainian grain dumping” into his country. He had also laid out, per The Hill:

    … that he was protesting a 2017 law in Ukraine that limits ethnic Hungarians from speaking their own language, particularly in schools and said Hungary would not support Ukraine on international issues “until the previous laws are restored.”

    Needless to say EU officials are panicking, and are readying a lucrative quid pro quo with Hungary (based on freeing frozen funds related to the prior years’ so-called “rule of law” punitive measures”), so that EU aid to Ukraine doesn’t get blocked at a crucial moment that Washington funding is drying up.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/04/2023 – 02:45

  • Poland, Austria, & Czechia Introduce Temporary Border-Checks With Slovakia To Curb Illegal Migration
    Poland, Austria, & Czechia Introduce Temporary Border-Checks With Slovakia To Curb Illegal Migration

    Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

    Poland, Austria and Czechia will all introduce random checks at the countries’ borders with Slovakia from midnight on Wednesday following an influx of illegal immigration.

    Temporary checks will be conducted along the length of the border for an initial 10-day period until Oct. 13.

    They will focus specifically on road and railway border crossings, although, pedestrians and cyclists may also be asked for documentation. Anyone within the vicinity of the border may be requested to identify themselves.

    “The numbers of illegal migrants to the EU are starting to grow again,” said Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala following the announcement. “We don’t take the situation lightly.”

    “Citizens need a valid passport or identity card to cross the border,” the Czech Interior Ministry added.

    The Czech policy would also be adopted by neighboring Austria, the country’s Interior Minister Gerhard Karner confirmed.

    Poland had already announced its intention to reintroduce checks on the Slovak border with the number of migrants along the Balkans migration route continuing to surge. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said last week he was “instructing Minister of Interior Mariusz Kamiński to check on buses, coaches, and cars crossing the border when it is suspected there could be illegal migrants on board.”

    “In recent weeks, we detected and detained 551 illegal migrants at the border with Slovakia. This situation causes us to take decisive action,” Kaminski added.

    Slovak caretaker Prime Minister Ludovit Odor acknowledged the growing issue of illegal migration in his country but insisted that the problem needs a European solution rather than individual nations restricting border access.

    He claimed that the decision by the three neighboring countries had been fueled by the Polish government, which is involved in a tightly contested election campaign, with Poles heading to voting booths on Oct. 15.

    “The whole thing has been triggered by Poland, where an election will soon take place, and the Czech Republic has joined in,” Odor said.

    Slovakia revealed last month that the number of illegal migrants detained by its authorities this year had soared nine-fold to over 27,000. The majority of detainees comprise young men from the Middle East using the Balkan migratory route through Serbia as they seek to migrate to northwestern Europe.

    The winner of Sunday’s general election in Slovakia, former Prime Minister Robert Fico, has vowed to tackle the issue more robustly by promising to reintroduce border checks with neighboring Hungary.

    “It will not be a pretty picture,” Fico told journalists as he threatened to use force to dispel illegal migrants detected on Slovak territory.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/04/2023 – 02:00

  • No Privacy, No Property: The World In 2030 According To The WEF
    No Privacy, No Property: The World In 2030 According To The WEF

    Authored by Madge Waggy via SevenWop.home.blog,

    The World Economic Forum (WEF) was founded fifty years ago. It has gained more and more prominence over the decades and has become one of the leading platforms of futuristic thinking and planning. As a meeting place of the global elite, the WEF brings together the leaders in business and politics along with a few selected intellectuals. The main thrust of the forum is global control.

    Free markets and individual choice do not stand as the top values, but state interventionism and collectivism. Individual liberty and private property are to disappear from this planet by 2030 according to the projections and scenarios coming from the World Economic Forum.

    Eight Predictions

    Individual liberty is at risk again. What may lie ahead was projected in November 2016 when the WEF published “8 Predictions for the World in 2030.” According to the WEF’s scenario, the world will become quite a different place from now because how people work and live will undergo a profound change. The scenario for the world in 2030 is more than just a forecast. It is a plan whose implementation has accelerated drastically since with the announcement of a pandemic and the consequent lockdowns. 

    According to the projections of the WEF’s “Global Future Councils,” private property and privacy will be abolished during the next decade. The coming expropriation would go further than even the communist demand to abolish the property of production goods but leave space for private possessions. The WEF projection says that consumer goods, too, would be no longer private property.

    If the WEF projection should come true, people would have to rent and borrow their necessities from the state, which would be the sole proprietor of all goods. The supply of goods would be rationed in line with a social credit points system. Shopping in the traditional sense would disappear along with the private purchases of goods. Every personal move would be tracked electronically, and all production would be subject to the requirements of clean energy and a sustainable environment. 

    In order to attain “sustainable agriculture,” the food supply will be mainly vegetarian. In the new totalitarian service economy, the government will provide basic accommodation, food, and transport, while the rest must be lent from the state. The use of natural resources will be brought down to its minimum. In cooperation with the few key countries, a global agency would set the price of CO2 emissions at an extremely high level to disincentivize its use.

    In a promotional video, the World Economic Forum summarizes the eight predictions in the following statements:

    1. People will own nothing. Goods are either free of charge or must be lent from the state.

    2. The United States will no longer be the leading superpower, but a handful of countries will dominate.

    3. Organs will not be transplanted but printed.

    4. Meat consumption will be minimized.

    5. Massive displacement of people will take place with billions of refugees.

    6. To limit the emission of carbon dioxide, a global price will be set at an exorbitant level.

    7. People can prepare to go to Mars and start a journey to find alien life.

    8. Western values will be tested to the breaking point..

    Beyond Privacy and Property

    In a publication for the World Economic Forum, the Danish ecoactivist Ida Auken, who had served as her country’s minister of the environment from 2011 to 2014 and still is a member of the Danish Parliament (the Folketing), has elaborated a scenario of a world without privacy or property. In “Welcome to 2030,” she envisions a world where “I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better.” By 2030, so says her scenario, shopping and owning have become obsolete, because everything that once was a product is now a service.

    In this idyllic new world of hers, people have free access to transportation, accommodation, food, “and all the things we need in our daily lives.” As these things will become free of charge, “it ended up not making sense for us to own much.” There would be no private ownership in houses nor would anyone pay rent, “because someone else is using our free space whenever we do not need it.” A person’s living room, for example, will be used for business meetings when one is absent. Concerns like “lifestyle diseases, climate change, the refugee crisis, environmental degradation, completely congested cities, water pollution, air pollution, social unrest and unemployment” are things of the past. The author predicts that people will be happy to enjoy such a good life that is so much better “than the path we were on, where it became so clear that we could not continue with the same model of growth.”

    Ecological Paradise

    In her 2019 contribution to the Annual Meeting of the Global Future Councils of the World Economic Forum, Ida Auken foretells how the world may look in the future “if we win the war on climate change.” By 2030, when CO2 emissions will be greatly reduced, people will live in a world where meat on the dinner plate “will be a rare sight” while water and the air will be much cleaner than today. Because of the shift from buying goods to using services, the need to have money will vanish, because people will spend less and less on goods. Work time will shrink and leisure time will grow.

    For the future, Auken envisions a city where electric cars have substituted conventional combustion vehicles. Most of the roads and parking spaces will have become green parks and walking zones for pedestrians. By 2030, agriculture will offer mainly plant-based alternatives to the food supply instead of meat and dairy products. The use of land to produce animal feed will greatly diminish and nature will be spreading across the globe again.

    Fabricating Social Consent

    How can people be brought to accept such a system? The bait to entice the masses is the assurances of comprehensive healthcare and a guaranteed basic income. The promoters of the Great Reset promise a world without diseases. Due to biotechnologically produced organs and individualized genetics-based medical treatments, a drastically increased life expectancy and even immortality are said to be possible. Artificial intelligence will eradicate death and eliminate disease and mortality. The race is on among biotechnological companies to find the key to eternal life.

    Along with the promise of turning any ordinary person into a godlike superman, the promise of a “universal basic income” is highly attractive, particularly to those who will no longer find a job in the new digital economy. Obtaining a basic income without having to go through the treadmill and disgrace of applying for social assistance is used as a bait to get the support of the poor.

    To make it economically viable, the guarantee of a basic income would require the leveling of wage differences. The technical procedures of the money transfer from the state will be used to promote the cashless society. With the digitization of all monetary transactions, each individual purchase will be registered. As a consequence, the governmental authorities would have unrestricted access to supervise in detail how individual persons spend their money. A universal basic income in a cashless society would provide the conditions to impose a social credit system and deliver the mechanism to sanction undesirable behavior and identify the superfluous and unwanted.

    Who Will Be the Rulers?

    The World Economic Forum is silent about the question of who will rule in this new world.

    There is no reason to expect that the new power holders would be benevolent. Yet even if the top decision-makers of the new world government were not mean but just technocrats, what reason would an administrative technocracy have to go on with the undesirables? What sense does it make for a technocratic elite to turn the common man into a superman? Why share the benefits of artificial intelligence with the masses and not keep the wealth for the chosen few?

    Not being swayed away by the utopian promises, a sober assessment of the plans must come to the conclusion that in this new world, there would be no place for the average person and that they would be put away along with the “unemployable,” “feeble minded,” and “ill bred.” Behind the preaching of the progressive gospel of social justice by the promoters of the Great Reset and the establishment of a new world order lurks the sinister project of eugenics, which as a technique is now called “genetic engineering” and as a movement is named “transhumanism,” a term  coined by Julian Huxley, the first director of the UNESCO.

    The promoters of the project keep silent about who will be the rulers in this new world. The dystopian and collectivist nature of these projections and plans is the result of the rejection of free capitalism. Establishing a better world through a dictatorship is a contradiction in terms. Not less but more economic prosperity is the answer to the current problems. Therefore, we need more free markets and less state planning. The world is getting greener and a fall in the growth rate of the world population is already underway. These trends are the natural consequence of wealth creation through free markets.

    Conclusion

    The World Economic Forum and its related institutions in combination with a handful of governments and a few high-tech companies want to lead the world into a new era without property or privacy. Values like individualism, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness are at stake, to be repudiated in favor of collectivism and the imposition of a “common good” that is defined by the self-proclaimed elite of technocrats. What is sold to the public as the promise of equality and ecological sustainability is in fact a brutal assault on human dignity and liberty. Instead of using the new technologies as an instrument of betterment, the Great Reset seeks to use the technological possibilities as a tool of enslavement. In this new world order, the state is the single owner of everything. It is left to our imagination to figure out who will program the algorithms that manage the distribution of the goods and services.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 23:45

  • Aarg! Homeless Pirates Pillage Leisure Boats In San Francisco Bay
    Aarg! Homeless Pirates Pillage Leisure Boats In San Francisco Bay

    There’s a new, maritime dimension to the scourge of rampant crime in northern California cities, as homeless creeps are now taking to the water and preying on houseboats and yachts docked on San Francisco Bay, reports Fox News. 

    “Multiple vessels have been stolen and ransacked. Victims have had to resort to personally confronting the criminals to recover their property without the benefit of police support,” said former harbor master Brock de Lappe at a recent municipal meeting. “Is this appropriate activity for a 79-year-old senior?”

    The 3,000-slip Oakland-Alameda Estuary has been particularly hard-hit, as thieves use small boats to burglarize or steal private boats on the waterway. The pirates use stolen boats or old, abandoned dinghies to carry out their raids. 

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    A boating school for children has seen four of its eight safety boats stolen and destroyed. The boats cost the school between $25,000 and $35,000 apiece. “We cannot run our program without these boats,” wrote Kame Richards, owner of the nonprofit Alameda Community Sailing Center, in a letter to his municipal commission.

    “The response we received from APD (Alameda Police Department) was that they could do nothing, and a warning not to approach the perpetrators if we located our boats,” added Richards. Sounds about par for the course in a state where the Senate has advanced a bill that would criminalize retail-store policies requiring employees to attempt to thwart thieves. 

    “We had all hands on deck to retrieve this stuff, and it took 35 hours to get a police report number from the Alameda Police Department,” said Richards during a municipal meeting. The school is on the verge of calling it quits.

    Another woman scared a troubling tale, telling Fox that she recently heard faint cries of “help me, please, please, anybody help me” coming from the inky darkness of the estuary. She dared to venture out with her kayak and a headlamp, and found a sailboat with a “panicked and terrified young man” aboard. He said pirates cut his sailboat line and set him adrift after a confrontation. 

    “If there had been any wind at the time I wouldn’t have been able to go out there and rescue this young man who had no motor and no ability to sail that boat,” said his rescuer, who requested anonymity for fear of reprisals. 

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    Things have deteriorated to the point that a group that has regularly volunteered to clean up the waterway for the past six years cancelled this year’s event “because of safety concerns” arising from a particularly concerning homeless encampment. “Unfortunately, I don’t feel comfortable bringing children to the site until those are addressed by the city of Oakland,” said the group’s leader, Mary Spicer. 

    Alameda island has received high marks for suburban livability, but that’s in jeopardy as it’s increasingly feeling the ill effects of being across a narrow channel from Oakland and its skyrocketing homeless population. The island city has no maritime police equipment, and has seen its police force shrink by 30% in recent years. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 23:25

  • Truth-Speaking & The Technocratic Cabal
    Truth-Speaking & The Technocratic Cabal

    Authored by Bert Olivier via The Brownstone Institute,

    Truth-speaking (or truth-telling) is not the same as truth. At least not in the familiar sense of a correspondence between what is stated and the state of affairs to which it corresponds – the so-called correspondence theory of truth. Or, for that matter, the coherence theory of truth, which judges the truth of statements by the criterion of whether it coheres with the body of statements within which it functions. 

    There are several other such theories of truth, for example the pragmatic theory of truth, which assesses truth in the light of what supposedly true statements do, or by their consequences for action (ancient Greek ‘pragma’: ‘thing done’; ‘act’; ‘deed’). 

    Truth-telling, or in ancient Greek, parrhesia, is something different. It is what one does when you tell or speak the truth exactly as you experience or perceive it, with no punches pulled. You don’t have to call the proverbial spade a shovel (unless this is what it takes to get through to your interlocutor), but you have to speak truthfully without holding back. This is particularly relevant for speaking (or writing) in public, where you run the risk of exposing yourself to harsh criticism. 

    It is also what you do when you feel constrained to tell a friend the barefaced truth about something that she or he has done, or is doing, and which falls short of the standards of honesty, or decency, or friendship, and because you care for your friend and value your friendship, you risk it by saying what has to be done to rescue it. It is not this kind of friend-to-friend parrhesia which concerns me here, in the first place, but rather the kind that sometimes, albeit seldom, occurs in the public domain. Here is Michel Foucault, in a justly famous philosophy seminar, talking about it: 

    In parrhesia, the speaker is supposed to give a complete and exact account of what he has in mind so that the audience is able to comprehend exactly what the speaker thinks. The word ‘parrhesia’ then, refers to a type of relationship between the speaker and what he says. For in parrhesia, the speaker makes it manifestly clear and obvious that what he says is his own opinion. And he does this by avoiding any kind of rhetorical form which would veil what he thinks. Instead, the parrhesiastes uses the most direct words and forms of expression he can find. Whereas rhetoric provides the speaker with technical devices to help him prevail upon the minds of his audience (regardless of the rhetorician’s own opinion concerning what he says), in parrhesia, the parrhesiastes acts on other people’s mind by showing them as directly as possible what he actually believes.

    This should sound very familiar to us today. Not because we are familiar with such truth-speaking, but precisely because we are not – at least not in the public domain, in the vast majority of cases. On the contrary, today one is mostly witness to the deliberate distortion of truth, and not even through the sophisticated use of rhetoric. It is usually straightforward, blatant lying.

    Foucault is careful to add that there are two types of parrhesia – sometimes the word is used to denote the genuine thing and sometimes it is employed pejoratively, to indicate that someone is just “chattering”, as Foucault calls it. Heidegger calls this “idle talk”. In both instances it means that someone says virtually anything that comes to mind, without exercising any discerning judgement about the sense or implications of what they say, or simply because it is the fashionable thing to say. 

    However, according to Foucault, most of the time when the term is encountered in classical Greco-Roman texts, it is in the affirmative sense of truth-speaking. Needless to point out, it is not a practice explicitly familiar to us today, in the specific sense with which it was endowed in antiquity. Nonetheless, it would not be difficult to find counterparts to parrhesia in contemporary society, particularly because there is an exigency for it in the present time. Why is that? In the text cited earlier, Foucault reminds one that: 

    …the commitment involved in parrhesia is linked to a certain social situation, to a difference of status between the speaker and his audience, to the fact that the parrhesiastes says something which is dangerous to himself and thus involves a risk, and so on…

    If there is a kind of ‘proof’ of the sincerity of the parrhesiastes, it is his courage. The fact that a speaker says something dangerous — different from what the majority believes— is a strong indication that he is a parrhesiastes.

    To appreciate this, one should remind oneself that not every instance of speaking the truth can be considered as being parrhesia. Foucault explains:

    Someone is said to use parrhesia and merits consideration as a parrhesiastes only if there is a risk or danger for him or her in telling the truth. For instance, from the ancient Greek perspective, a grammar teacher may tell the truth to the children that he teaches, and indeed may have no doubt that what he teaches is true. But in spite of this coincidence between belief and truth, he is not a parrhesiastes. However, when a philosopher addresses himself to a sovereign, to a tyrant, and tells him that his tyranny is disturbing and unpleasant because tyranny is incompatible with justice, then the philosopher speaks the truth, believes he is speaking the truth, and, more than that, also takes a risk (since the tyrant may become angry, may punish him, may exile him, may kill him)…

    Parrhesia, then, is linked to courage in the face of danger: it demands the courage to speak the truth in spite of some danger. And in its extreme form, telling the truth takes place in the ‘game’ of life or death.

    The well-known saying, ‘to speak truth to power’, is obviously related to this, and probably derives from Foucault’s (and also Edward Said’s) work.

    And have we not witnessed exemplary instances of this today, in the face of what is arguably the largest attempt at a (global) coup d’etat in the history of humanity! 

    We all owe those brave souls who have risked their reputations, their incomes, and sometimes their lives, by acting as parrhesiastes in the face of almost incomprehensible institutional, technological and media power, a huge debt of gratitude for setting an example for the rest of us. There are too many to list here, but among the names that come readily to mind are those of Dr Naomi Wolf, Robert F. Kennedy, Dr Joseph Mercola, Dr Robert Malone, Dr Peter McCullough, Alex Berenson, Dr Meryl Nass, Dr Denis Rancourt, and Todd Callender, among many others who have suffered and even died. 

    As Foucault said, parrhesia is dangerous and risky. But what choice does one have, if not merely your income, reputation and your life, but also – more importantly – your moral integrity as a human being is at stake? It takes courage to be a parrhesiastes. This is why Foucault observes that:

    When you accept the parrhesiastic game in which your own life is exposed, you are taking up a specific relationship to yourself: you risk death to tell the truth instead of reposing in the security of a life where the truth goes unspoken. Of course, the threat of death comes from the Other, and thereby requires a relationship to himself: he prefers himself as a truth-teller rather than as a living being who is false to himself.

    Here’s the thing: presumably all those people who contribute to, and most of those who read Brownstone articles, know what evil power is behind the attempts to cause the collapse of the world economy and decimate the world’s human population. I use the word ‘evil’ advisedly, for there is no way of saying more clearly and accurately what animates the actions of those agents in the service of the Leviathan in question, which has several fronts, among them most prominently the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the World Health Organisation (WHO). 

    Moreover, one cannot expect any parrhesia from them. On the contrary, as Foucault points out, “It is because the parrhesiastes must take a risk in speaking the truth that the king or tyrant generally cannot use parrhesia; for he risks nothing”.

    Nothing prevents us from practicing this ancient mode of address when we confront the tyrannical monstrosity in question, however, which is why I want to say to them that, contrary to what they believe, drunk with their own vaunted importance and supposed power, they should not be too sure of not risking their necks. The disgusting Klaus Schwab of the WEF himself talks about people being very “angry,” which is probably an understatement, judging by the opinions expressed by many people I know. 

    So, Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates and your ilk – including the bankers who are hiding in the shadows – I cannot encourage you to examine your collective and individual conscience, because you evidently don’t have one. It is, after all, a telling characteristic of psychopaths to be devoid of a conscience, and therefore of the capacity to feel guilt or remorse. 

    But evidently you can feel fear, otherwise you would not have been sufficiently paranoid to surround yourselves with 5000 heavily armed troops at your exclusive boys’ club meeting at Davos in January. And you should be afraid, very afraid, because when this is over, you will be called to account.

    Signs are abounding that increasing numbers of people are realising that you and your empty ‘promise’ of ‘building back better’ are the engineers of the increasing economic hardships they face, and are showing in no uncertain terms that they will not allow that to continue indefinitely. 

    Hence, don’t start celebrating too soon about your desired success in getting the better of the putative ‘useless eaters’. Except, of course, that you don’t know how to celebrate; only truly human people know how to do that – people who know the joy of togetherness at a birthday celebration, or a wedding, or when you go dancing – something the love of my life and I do regularly, when our favourite bands perform live at a joint we frequent in the city. To quote the late, inimitable Leonard Cohen:

    So you can stick your little needles in that voodoo doll; 
    I’m very sorry baby, doesn’t look like me at all
    I’m standin’ by the window where the light is strong…

    Now, you can say that I’ve grown bitter but of this you may be sure:
    The rich have got their channels in the bedrooms of the poor
    And there’s a mighty Judgement comin’…
    You see, I hear these funny voices in the Tower of Song…

    Therefore, you empty vessels, here is a concluding bit of parrhesia: on those cold winter nights (as Dolly famously sang to Horace Vandergelder) you can snuggle up to your AI robots, while we humans cuddle up for mutual warmth. You would be envious if you could imagine it, but I know you have no imagination. If you did, you would use all your money and technology to make the world a better place for all people; not just the few quasi-robots in your coterie, masquerading as people. But I can assure you that we shall make the world a better place – without you.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 23:05

  • Tropical Storm Philippe Forecasted To Impact Maine Or Nova Scotia 
    Tropical Storm Philippe Forecasted To Impact Maine Or Nova Scotia 

    Several weeks after Tropical Storm Lee made landfall in the western part of Canada’s Nova Scotia province, another storm is brewing in the Atlantic Basin, with computer models forecasting parts of the US Northeast and Nova Scotia could be hit again. 

    The latest report from the National Hurricane Center states Tropical Storm Philippe was about 70 miles northwest of Anguilla and about 55 miles east-northeast of St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands, moving northwest at 10 mph with sustained winds of 45 mph.

    “It made landfall on the island of Barbuda on Monday with 50 mph winds and is now headed away from the Caribbean into the Atlantic, but its tropical-storm-force winds still extend out 175 miles,” according to Orlando Sentinel. 

    “On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass just north of the British Virgin Islands today and then move away from the northern Leeward Islands beginning tonight,” NHC wrote in the 1100 ET update, adding, “However, the strongest winds and heaviest rains will likely occur in the islands to the southeast of the center.”

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    NHC said, “Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, but Philippe could begin to strengthen after midweek.” 

    Models expect the storm to turn north and parallel the US East Coast while at sea, with a potential landfall impact area from Maine to Nova Scotia by as early as Sunday. 

    So far, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has produced 18 named storms and is already above average, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher with Colorado State University. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 22:45

  • The SAFER Banking Act Is Anything But
    The SAFER Banking Act Is Anything But

    Submitted by Gun Owners of America,

    After a long debate, the SAFER Banking Act is making its way out of committee and onto the floor of the Senate for a vote.

    The Act would allow banks to work with cannabis businesses without penalty. It currently enjoys bipartisan support in the Senate, but there are some sinister consequences for firearms businesses due to loose language hidden in the text of the Act.

    As currently written, the law does not sufficiently protect the firearms industry from the abuse of banks or regulators to harm firearms businesses in a manner similar to “Operation Chokepoint” of the Obama era.

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    The law states that Federal Banking regulators can recommend to financial service providers de-bank businesses that they suspect of breaking a rule or condition from a federal agency like ATF.

    Consider that currently, the Biden administration has imposed a “Zero Tolerance Policy” on FFLs, which makes mundane and simple mistakes such as misspelling an abbreviation on a form into federal crimes for which a gun store could now be penalized.

    ATF’s published data concerning its compliance inspections in 2020 reflects that it conducted 5,823 inspections and found and reported errors in 43.7% of those inspections.

    ATF’s compliance inspections for 2022 increased over 2020 by 1,156 inspections to 6,979 inspections, and ATF’s data reflects that it found and reported errors in 45.5% of the inspected FFLs. In summary, a failure to clarify whether the language in the law applies only to banking regulations could result in nearly half of all gun stores losing access to financial services!

    Gun Owners know full well how statutory language can be redefined and weaponized with a simple rule change and agency definition.

    ATF routinely issues contradictory guidance letters to the firearm industry, refuses to publish the guidance publicly, and has even reversed such guidance in a way that criminalizes millions of customers and shuts down entire companies.

    Members of the firearms industry will not only have to deal with rogue ATF regulators in court but could also be cut off from essential financial services because of this “informal guidance.”

    In addition, a provision of the law imposes strict liability on account holders who deal with “a threat to national security,” someone involved in “other illicit financing,” or is “engaged in… any other criminal activity.”

    This could affect members of the firearms industry even if they were unaware that they were selling to potential national threats or criminals.

    For instance, criminals often deceive gun stores by lying on form 4473 to buy firearms illegally. During Operation Fast and Furious, the government even permitted Mexican cartel agents to buy guns from FFLs. Under this provision, firearms businesses could be de-banked for the actions of criminals regardless of whether the FFL was unaware of the criminal activity.

    The SAFER Banking Act also clarifies that federal regulators should recommend de-banking businesses whose customers pose a “national security threat,” posing a huge threat to the entire firearm industry. Especially given that national security agencies increasingly label gun owners as “Militia Violent Extremists” or “Domestic Violent Extremists.”

    Gun stores have little protection from this extensive and imperfect list of reasons to deny them financial services.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    So, what are we doing to combat this attack on the firearms industry?

    Gun Owners of America supports the Fair Access to Banking Act. This Act aims to prevent large financial institutions that benefit from federal funding, not just anti-gun regulators, from discriminating against the Second Amendment community.

    Considering that major banks owe their existence to federal bailouts and federal depository insurance, they shouldn’t dictate the scope of Americans’ Second Amendment rights.

    The SAFER Banking Act permits financial institutions to bypass federal marijuana restrictions but doesn’t grant the same leniency for gun ownership rights. The Act treats the Second Amendment as inferior.

    Gun Owners of America opposes any laws that promote the legal marijuana industry while undermining gun rights in states where marijuana use is legal.

    *   *   * 

    We’ll hold the line for you in Washington. We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 22:25

  • 'Not-ESG Friendly': New Panasonic EV Battery Plant In Kansas To Be Powered By Coal 
    ‘Not-ESG Friendly’: New Panasonic EV Battery Plant In Kansas To Be Powered By Coal 

    Panasonic’s new battery plant in Kansas will require an amount of energy equivalent to that used by a small city, forcing a nearby utility to halt the shutdown of a coal-fired power plant. This has sparked criticism that electric vehicle production and electric vehicles aren’t ‘ESG-friendly.’ 

    According to The Kansas City Star, citing documents filed by power company Evergy with the Kansas Corporation Commission, Panasonic’s 4-million-square-foot plant in Johnson County will double the utility’s load and require two new substations and upgrades to 31 miles of transmission lines. 

    Documents show Evergy will have to keep a Lawrence coal-fired power plant online until 2028 to meet the new load at the EV battery plant that will be ramped up as production begins at the end of 2025/early 2026. The utility plans to transition from coal to natural gas by the decade’s end.  

    “Beyond the sheer magnitude of load and load factor, Panasonic’s construction schedule, and, in turn, its energy needs, are being planned on a very aggressive schedule. With energy needs starting to ramp in 2024 and full load requirements by 2026, there is urgency to procure capacity and energy to fulfill the expected energy usage schedule,” said Kayla Messamore, Evergy’s vice president of strategy and planning. 

    Currently, no other power generation source in the area can supply enough on-demand power to the Panasonic battery plant. In testimony from Ryan Mulvany, Evergy’s vice president of distribution, he said the plant will demand approximately 200 to 250 megawatts (or the equivalent of a small city). 

    Despite the $4 billion cost of the factory, the Japanese company is “poised to get as much as $6.8 billion from provisions in last year’s federal Inflation Reduction Act,” the local paper said in July. The company is expected to receive over $8 billion in federal, state, and local incentives and support the plant in Johnson County. 

    Zack Pistora, a lobbyist with the Kansas Sierra Club, called the EV battery plant powered by coal a “shame”: 

    “Not only are we squandering an opportunity to access local Kansas clean energy resources that invest in our state, but it also is not doing anyone else a favor as far as more greenhouse gas pollution.”

    For readers, none of this should be a surprise. The whole ‘ESG’ movement is a scam. For years, we’ve noted “Some EVs Are “Dirtier” Than Conventional Vehicles; New Study Finds” and ‘Zero Emissions’ From Electric Vehicles? Here’s Why That Claim Has Zero Basis. Four years ago we said, “Electric Car-Owners Shocked: New Study Confirms EVs Considerably Worse For Climate Than Diesel Cars.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 22:05

  • Trump, Newsom, And DeSantis – The Odd Throuple
    Trump, Newsom, And DeSantis – The Odd Throuple

    Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClear Wire,

    Appearing at the annual California Republican Party convention Friday, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis took an unusual political tack: They not only heaped scorn on President Biden and Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, but on the state of California itself.

    “California really is the petri dish for American liberalism,” DeSantis told a dinner crowd of some 350 Republicans at the Anaheim Marriott. “What Biden is doing are things that California was doing many years ago. What California is doing now is likely what a second Biden term would do, or God forbid, Kamala Harris, or God forbid, Newsom himself.”

    A few hours earlier, at a sold-out luncheon with a crowd four times as large, Trump used his singular rhetorical style to make similar assertions. Expanding the hit list beyond Biden and Newsom to four members of California’s congressional delegation (Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell, and Maxine Waters), Trump said, “Guess who is running your state? Bad people. It’s becoming a symbol of our nation’s decline.”

    Warming to the subject matter, Trump continued: “Gavin Newsom and the far-left Communists in Sacramento…San Francisco and L.A., cities which are absolutely being destroyed rapidly on a daily basis, have given you sanctuary cities, wide open borders, vast homeless encampments, and out-of-control taxes.”

    The former president also referred to Biden and his administration’s economic advisers as “lunatics,” vowed that if returned to the White House he’d investigate the “Marxist monsters unleashing mayhem” on the streets of Los Angeles and San Francisco, and called Newsom an “environmental maniac.” When it came to California’s governor, however, Trump’s heart didn’t quite seem to be in it. He quickly amended his statement to say that Newsom was appeasing California’s environmentalists “for political reasons,” adding as an aside that as president he and Newsom had worked well together.

    Trump expressed no similar sentiment for his fellow Republican who occupied the governor’s mansion in Tallahassee, whom he ridiculed in a lengthy riff about the time DeSantis asked for Trump’s endorsement in his first gubernatorial election. A member of Congress at the time, DeSantis was trailing far behind in the GOP primary. After he endorsed DeSantis, his campaign started soaring, Trump recalled.

    “I said, ‘Let’s do it,’ and this guy went up like a rocket,” Trump said, claiming that he, not DeSantis, was responsible for turning Florida Republican red. Trump also boasted about receiving more than a million votes more than DeSantis did in 2020.

    Trump went on to wallow in his irritation at DeSantis’ “no comment” response to a reporter’s question last year about a presidential run. “That means he’s running!” Trump said. “And I started hitting him very early. I hit him hard, and he’s crashing like a bird seriously wounded in flight.”

    If Trump sounded like he was making up for lost time, there was a reason: He skipped Wednesday’s debate at the scenic Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, and he wasn’t able to immediately rebut criticism from DeSantis and Chris Christie implying that Trump was wimping out.

    Moreover, even before the debate, DeSantis sensed it would be nearly impossible to break out of the bickering pack of seven Republican candidates, all desperate to shed their second-tier status and cut into Trump’s gaping lead.

    So with the focus of the political world on California, Team DeSantis released a campaign ad a day before the debate teasing the real showdown he’s counting on to change his trajectory: a mano a mano cage match between himself and Gavin Newsom over their ideals, ideology, and records as mega-state governors.

    After rattling off a series of comparisons between the state of Florida and California on violent crime, government deficits, and the economy, the ad wraps up with the words “Revival vs. Decline” flashing on the screen in bold letters against black-and-white images of a sunglass-clad DeSantis staring down a scowling Newsom.

    “Florida vs. California, conservative vs. progressive – It’s the debate we should be having at the national level,” the ad quotes Fox Business host Stuart Varney intoning.

    Actually, it is the debate Americans are already having – with the two governors leading the conversation joined by Trump, who likes taking pointed potshots at both Newsom and DeSantis. But there is a wrinkle, as is almost always the case with The Donald. Trump’s penchant for making all politics personal means that the three-way conversation has the feel of a tag-team wrestling match that doesn’t break along party lines: DeSantis is fighting them both.

    For his part, Newsom noticed DeSantis’ pre-debate trolling – and responded with some of his own. California’s governor played the smart-alecky host showing up at the Republicans’ Wednesday debate where he extolled California’s weather, lauded the scenic Reagan library, and jousted good-naturedly with Fox News host Sean Hannity about California’s sky-high gasoline prices. Then he got down to business, taking dead aim at DeSantis. As Newsom worked the post-debate spin room, he heckled DeSantis for “taking the bait” and agreeing to the faceoff, set to take place Nov. 30 with Hannity moderating.

    “DeSantis looks small debating a California governor that’s not running for president,” Newsom told a throng of reporters. “He’s getting smaller by the day.” Newsom also indicated that the animus between him and DeSantis is genuine, calling Florida’s governor a “liar” and a “hypocrite” who bullies “marginalized communities.”

    Newsom insists he’s not running for president himself – at least not in this cycle – but that hasn’t stopped the swirling speculation that he’s operating a shadow campaign and is ready to jump in if Biden isn’t able to answer the bell. On Friday night in Anaheim, DeSantis fired back, hitting Newsom and Biden on gas prices, stubborn inflation, and what he cast as a collapse of the American Dream. For the first time in the history of the Golden State, he told the crowd in the Anaheim Marriott ballroom, more Americans were leaving California than arriving. Many of them were arriving in Florida he added, appreciative of lower taxes and an absence of Democrats trying to micromanage their lives.

    “To me, the debate about what state is governed better, Florida or California, that debate has already been answered by people voting with their feet,” DeSantis said. Speaking less than a mile from the entrance of Disneyland, DeSantis began his speech with a puckish reference to his prominent role in the culture wars as the nemesis of the Disney Company.

    It was this battle that prompted Newsom to throw down the gauntlet last year when he went up on Florida airwaves targeting DeSantis’ war on woke and his socially conservative policies on abortion and public-school curriculum.

    “Freedom, it’s under attack in your state,” Newsom argued in the spot. “Republican leaders – they’re banning books, making it harder to vote, restricting speech in classrooms, even criminalizing women and doctors.”

    DeSantis returned the favor earlier this year when visiting  San Francisco, a city Newsom ran for two terms as mayor, and touring the city’s homeless encampments in the Tenderloin district, a denizen of fentanyl dealing and overdoses. He then tweeted out photos of tents and squalor, labeling the city a “dumpster fire.” 

    DeSantis seems to like his chances in a battle against Biden or Newsom, but that might be fantasy land. The massive obstacle in his path isn’t a Democratic president or a Democratic governor. It’s the most recent Republican president.

    In recent weeks, the gap between Trump and DeSantis has grown to a chasm, increasing as each criminal indictment against the former president has piled up at his feet. Trump is now 43.9 percentage points ahead of DeSantis in the RealClearPolitics Average of polls, a 27-point jump in six months.

    That gap was on full display at the California GOP convention. Trump, the political reality TV star, attracted a larger crowd than DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy combined. He relished the attention, captivating his audience with his fiery freewheeling riffs, humorous jabs, wild exaggerations, and appalling insults.

    Trump spent the first 10 minutes telling  the largely supportive audience that he would have won California – a state he lost by more than 5 million votes in 2020 – if not for a “rigged election.” The former president also promised to take on “ultra-left-wing liars, losers, creeps, perverts and freaks” that, he said, “are devouring the future of this state like a swarm of locusts.”

    When it comes to rampant smash-and-grab thefts undermining retail businesses from here to Philadelphia, Trump offered a simple but shocking solution. “We will immediately stop all of the pillaging and theft very simply: If you rob a store, you can fully expect to be shot as you are leaving that store – shot,” Trump said.

    He promised to stand up to “crazy Nancy Pelosi,” who he said had “ruined San Francisco,” then shifted to mock her husband, who was a victim of a brutal attack in the family’s San Francisco home last October.

    “How’s her husband doing, anybody know?” he asked a crowd that laughed uncomfortably in response. “And she’s against building a wall at our border, even though she has a wall around her house – which obviously didn’t do a very good job.”

    Although Trump put most of the blame for the country’s ills on Democrats, toward the end of his remarks he punched hard at DeSantis too. 

    “I’m the only candidate that [Biden and the Democrats] don’t want to run against – they’ll take DeSanctimonious in about two seconds,” he remarked.

    He then rattled off the results of the most recent Morning Consult poll, showing him with 63% support nationwide compared to 12% for DeSantis. And in a recent CNN poll, DeSantis fell to fifth place in the New Hampshire primary, Trump jeered.

    Here in California, Trump holds an enormous, nearly 50% lead over DeSantis in the primary. Thanks to a new change in state Republican election rules, which the Republican National Committee still must approve, if Trump wins more than 50% of the March 5 primary vote, he would secure all 169 of the state’s delegates. If no candidate hits that threshold, delegates will be awarded proportionally.

    By now, DeSantis is accustomed to Trump’s slings and arrows. In the ballroom Friday night DeSantis seemed more relaxed and natural, sprinkling his remarks with quotes from Reagan and offering Reaganesque flourishes about American renewal and this generation’s “rendezvous with destiny.” He appeared to acknowledge his underdog status in the race but also his commitment to soldier on in what he described as a moral obligation to reverse the country’s trajectory.

    DeSantis also seemed slightly amused by all of Trump’s attention earlier in the day.

    “I understand that one of my residents was here earlier saying that he turned Florida red,” he remarked. “All I will say is, Ronald Reagan made the point [that] there’s no limit to what you can do when you don’t care who gets the credit. I just wish if he was the one that turned Florida red, that he wouldn’t have turned Georgia and Arizona blue because that’s not been good for us at all.”

    In an earlier Friday interview, DeSantis addressed Newsom’s attempt to ridicule him for agreeing to debate in the first place and brushed it off as disingenuous campaign jousting.

    “You know Sean [Hannity] asked him to debate. He said yes. So, then he asked me,” DeSantis recounted. “I’m like, ‘I’ll do it. Let’s do it.’ And now he’s acting like ‘Why do you want to debate me?’ Well, I’m debating you because you asked to do it, so let’s go and get it done.”

    “I do think it will be good, it will be instructive,” he added. “These are the types of debates America really needs to have.”

    Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ White House/national political correspondent.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 21:45

  • Judge Denies SEC's Plan For Quick Appeal Against Ripple Ruling
    Judge Denies SEC’s Plan For Quick Appeal Against Ripple Ruling

    District court judge Analisa Torres has rejected the SEC’s motion to appeal its loss against Ripple Labs, the company responsible for issuing the XRP token.

    The SEC needed Torres’ permission to appeal her ruling because it wasn’t a final judgment.

    The regulator was also seeking to put on hold its suit against Ripple for allegedly offering unregistered securities while the appeal is pending.

    As CoinTelegraph’s Tom Mitchellhill reports, in the court order, Judge Torres denied the SEC’s motion, claiming that the regulator failed to meet its burden to show that there were controlling questions of law or that there were substantial grounds for differences of opinion on the matter.

    “The SEC’s motion for certification of interlocutory appeal is denied, and the SEC’s request for a stay is denied as moot.”

    As a reminder, Bloomberg reports that Torres’ initial ruling was widely hailed as a victory for the crypto industry, which has resisted attempts to categorize digital assets as securities subject to regulation.

    In her July 13 decision, Torres drew a distinction between sales of XRP to institutional investors, which she said met the test for an investment contract under federal securities law, and sales to the public on exchanges.

    Ripple’s XRP token is up over 6% following the headlines…

    Notably, the decision isn’t an outright loss for the regulator, as judge Torres scheduled a trial for April 23, 2024 to address the remaining issues on the matter.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 21:25

  • Food Stamps Will Be Harder To Get From October
    Food Stamps Will Be Harder To Get From October

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    This month, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits will get a boost, but eligibility requirements have changed.

    The new rules, which went into effect Oct. 1, stipulate that able-bodied adults without dependents between the ages of 52 and 54 will have to prove that they are actively working, training, or in school. Before, those between the ages of 18 and 52 had to prove they are working at least 80 hours per month, in school, or involved in a training program to get the SNAP benefits.

    The age requirement was expanded as part of the debt ceiling deal that was passed in Congress and signed by President Joe Biden earlier this year. The age requirement will expand by another year in October 2024, while the new requirements will be in effect until Oct. 1, 2030.

    With the recent changes, the left-wing Center on Budget and Policy Priorities warned that more than 750,000 “older adults” are at risk of losing SNAP benefits due to the “expansion of the existing, failed SNAP work-reporting requirement.” The requirements initiated under the debt ceiling deal were the largest changes made to the SNAP, or food stamps, in decades.

    “The expansion of this requirement would take food assistance away from large numbers of people, including many who have serious barriers to employment as well as others who are working or should be exempt but are caught up in red tape,” it said.

    It was part of a deal between President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) several months ago. At the time, Mr. McCarthy said that “what work requirements actually do [is to] help people get a job.”

    Republicans have tried for decades to expand work requirements for these government assistance programs, arguing they result in more people returning to the workforce. “We’re going to return these programs to being a life vest, not a lifestyle. A hand up, not a handout and that has always been the American way,” Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters in June.

    A U.S. Department of Agriculture spokesperson told The Hill that there are some exceptions to the new requirements. They include veterans, homeless people, and people aged 18 to 24 who aged out of foster care situations, the spokesperson said.

    Those who have a mental or physical limitation, have a child aged 18 or younger living in their home, or pregnant women are also exempt, the spokesperson added.

    At the same time, individuals who already get SNAP and still qualify will see their benefits increase starting Oct. 1, said the USDA. Benefit changes for SNAP are based on the Consumer Price Index that measures inflation for June 2022.

    “The maximum allotments will increase for the 48 states and D.C., Alaska, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,” the agency said.

    “The maximum allotment for a family of four in the 48 states and D.C., will be $973,” and allotments “for a family of four will range from $1,248 to $1,937 in Alaska,” while “maximum allotments for a family of four in Hawaii will decrease to $1,759.

    The minimum benefit for all 48 states and the District of Columbia will stay the same at $23, according to the USDA.

    The average family started receiving about $90 less per month in March, although some households dropped by up to $250, according to a study by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

    Fraud?

    Last month, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) warned that the food stamp program is losing some $1 billion per month due to errors and fraud as she announced legislation designed to deal with the alleged monthly losses.

    “Families across the country are going hungry while bureaucrats are jumping the line to gobble up SNAP dollars, either as a meal ticket to beef up state budgets or a self-serve buffet of benefits for themselves or others who do not qualify,” the senator said.

    “I’m snapping back! It’s time for states at fault to pay the piper and eat the costs of their taxpayer waste. Instead of overserving bureaucrats, let’s end the waste and set a place at the table for hungry families,” Ms. Ernst added.

    Other Details

    Earlier this year, the federal government ended its public health emergency over COVID-19, which ended a booster program for all SNAP recipients. The duration of those extra payments was originally tied directly to the duration of the public health emergency, but that was changed in December 2022 and the final pandemic-boosted SNAP payments went out at the end of February.

    The emergency program was enacted by Congress at the start of the pandemic in March 2020 and expanded a year later. Originally, the extra benefits were intended to continue as long as the COVID-19 public health emergency was in force before it expired.

    SNAP benefits can rise and fall with inflation and other factors. Maximum benefits went up by 12 percent in October to reflect an annual cost-of-living adjustment boosted by higher prices for foods and other goods. But payments went down for those who also receive Social Security because of the 8.7 percent cost-of-living increase in that program on Jan 1.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 21:05

  • "We're In The Middle Of A Revolution" – Victor Davis Hanson Warns Tucker: "The Next 12 Months Will Be The Most Explosive In History"
    “We’re In The Middle Of A Revolution” – Victor Davis Hanson Warns Tucker: “The Next 12 Months Will Be The Most Explosive In History”

    Historian Victor Davis Hanson sat down with Tucker Carlson to discuss his perspective on the current political climate in the US, asserting that American liberalism is characterized by dishonesty, and warning about what he sees as liberal efforts to introduce a highly intolerant age.

    “It’s hard for most Americans to comprehend the total dishonesty of American liberalism.”

    VDH says Trump represents a significant threat to the specific vision held by liberals, who are employing a “critical legal theory,” in which traditional moral values are abandoned in favor of whatever gains power.

    “Liberals are now telling us they plan to protect American democracy and that’s the clearest possible sign that they intend to end it.”

    Most specifically, Hanson told Carlson that:

    “I think they’ve come to the conclusion that Trump is an existential threat and by association, half the country is to their vision of what they want to transform us into, and so they feel that whatever means necessary are justified.”

    And this is an issue since Hanson pointed out that while some conservatives were speaking up, they are also fighting a culture in the Republican Party that preferred to “lose nobly” as opposed to winning elections in an “ugly” manner.

    Hanson emphasizes that the traditional boundaries and norms are being renegotiated, from the Senate filibuster and the Electoral College to societal understandings of gender and language, raising concerns that:

    “We’re in the middle of a cultural, economic, political revolution,” but “we think that we’re still playing within the same sidelines or parameters, and we’re not. Everything’s under negotiation.”

    Hanson argues that the legal actions against Trump are politically motivated and biased and designed to send a message to the half of America that will not simple ‘comply’:

    “The idea is now that we now have the power to do this, and because we have the power to do it, it’s moral and right, and if you don’t like it, what are you doing to do about it?”

    Finally, Hanson issues a call to action of sorts, noting that “There are legitimate efforts to rectify and stop this madness and let’s see what happens in 2024.”

    “You need leaders who will tell people we are in a Jacobin takeover of this country, and the old get along at any cost does not work,” Hanson said.

    “I hope everybody can keep their head because I think the next 12 to 18 months are going to be the most explosive in our history since the Great Depression.”

    Watch the full interview below:

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 20:55

  • Can RFK Jr Become President As An Independent?
    Can RFK Jr Become President As An Independent?

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

    As predicted two weeks ago, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., appears ready to declare as an independent for president. Already polling at 20 percent nationwide, he will announce that he is severing ties with the Democratic National Committee (DNC). This is because the DNC has set up impossible roadblocks to victory within the party apparatus and the primary process. The Biden administration is denying him Secret Service protection despite apparent attempts on his life.

    Of all figures in public life today, RFK has the strongest claim to the legacies of his father and uncle, ideologically and culturally. That would put him in the solid category of a real Democrat—half a century ago. Times have changed and dramatically so. He started off this campaign with the belief that he would help guide his family’s party back to a principled commitment to the common good. But he has discovered that this is not what the party is about anymore, at least not according to the masters at the top.

    This is a man who believes that America is not lost, not foundationally corrupt, not a complete goner. He looks around at the people in this nation and sees goodness, love of country, a desire for freedom, and a strong devotion to make things right. Conventional American politics, however, seems designed to block real solutions. Because he still wants to make a difference—one senses that he believes it is his destiny—he will continue his run for president as an independent.

    In normal times, there would be every reason to predict that he stands zero chance of winning. This is most likely due to Duveger’s law. In this model, voters don’t necessarily push the button for the person they want. Because only one candidate can win, they vote for the person most likely to beat the person they truly hate. That leaves us always with second-best choices, and third-party candidates, no matter how much they are loved, in the lurch.

    It’s because of this principle, this habit, this basic logic of voting, that third parties have never performed well in winner-take-all elections. They pop up every four years and usually get 1–5 percent or so and then go away. At best, such candidates have been spoilers: they don’t win, they only block victories for others.

    Who benefits from an RFK independent run? The conventional wisdom is that he pulls more from Trump than from Biden, in which case the Democrats benefit from his decision to go independent. But that’s just what the polls say. What happens at the voting booth is another matter. People who despise Trump might be reluctant to vote for RFK for fear that Trump could be made the winner, and people who despise Biden might feel exactly the same.

    Both major candidates have major issues, and yet, so far, there doesn’t seem to be anything stopping their nominations.

    Which is to say: it is very hard to predict in this environment.

    These are not normal times. It is not entirely impossible that RFK’s movement could overcome Durverger’s law simply through passion and excitement. If the polls start showing him as a possible winner, and if his rallies elicit more attendance, intelligence, and commitment than his competitors, that could cause a huge rush away from the two parties over to a genuine alternative.

    People might take the risk of “throwing away” their vote to push for the simply incredible, as a way of sending a much-needed message to the establishment of both parties.

    If any election year in my lifetime holds out the possibility of such a radical upset—something that would have been inconceivable in the past—it is this one. Vast numbers of people are overwhelmed with distrust of the entire system. And yet the same numbers have not and will not let go of the basic American idea: the people are in charge of their government and should be the determinative force concerning the laws under which we live.

    The hurdles are huge: essentially he is battling against the whole history of two-party dominance in the United States. In the 20th century, the history has shown us a number of fairly substantial runs:

    • 1912, Teddy Roosevelt, 28 percent

    • 1924, Robert LaFollette, 17 percent

    • 1948, Strom Thurmond, 3 percent

    • 1968, George Wallace, 14 percent

    • 1980, John Anderson, 7 percent

    • 1992, Ross Perot, 19 percent

    None came close to winning. And yet we have to admit that the system has never been as broken as it is today. Few people really want to see a Biden/Trump rematch, and those who do are motivated by a burning passion to reverse or reinforce the 2020 election, the results of which are widely disputed thanks to Trump’s aggressive protests against irregularities.

    Let’s just say that this constitutes about one-third of the electorate. What about everyone else who would like to see something like normalcy return to this country without the incredible corruption that has invaded our public lives? RFK makes a credible claim that he has the knowledge and ability to begin to clean up the system in Washington, precisely because he has been litigating against it for many years.

    What else does he have going for him? There is an authenticity to his language and approach that no other candidate can match. He is obviously not a professional politician. He speaks and sounds more like the best professor you ever had, with an incredible and ever-present command of facts and information about a huge range of subjects. His recall seems at times to be photographic concerning names, dates, data, and anecdotes. His speeches often seem more like teaching seminars.

    In a strange way, we need that now. Regardless of what you think about his views on this topic or that, everyone has to admit that he has an amazing command of all the issues, whether health policy, foreign policy, censorship, or environmental problems. In a startling way, when he doesn’t know something, he outright admits it and seeks out experts to help him.

    What’s especially beautiful about RFK is his absolute refusal to censor himself. He believes that the CIA was involved in the killing of his uncle and says that, bringing the receipts. He believes that the FDA and CDC are deeply corrupt, sacrificing American liberty and health in the pay of the legally privileged pharmaceutical industry, and he says that too. He looks around the country and sees a government/corporate cartel crushing the interests of small business, farmers, and the middle class generally, and he says that too.

    Most striking of all, none of these points are politically strategic, much less put together by consultants with focus groups. They come from his own mind and heart. He has ruminated on them for many years. Running for president is just his chance to reach a larger audience with a message that is his alone.

    There is not a single voter who agrees with all of his positions, and that’s ok. No single voter agrees fully with anyone else because we are human beings. In choosing a president, we are looking for truth telling, courage, sincerity, moral and practical clarity, and a ferocious opposition to government policies that pillage the public for ruling class interests. RFK certainly has a bead on that problem, and, for that reason, we are blessed to have him.

    He also benefits from niche interests that he has cultivated and only he represents: the vaccine-injured, the bitcoiners, the civil libertarians, the pro-peace contingent of both parties, the anti-corporatists, the partisans of old-fashioned environmentalism, the unjustly persecuted like Julian Assange and Edward Snowden, and the advocates of better health. Maybe together they make up only 25 percent but they are motivated and determined. They could bring others with them, in the interests of saving this country.

    A point I like about the quixotic run as an independent is that it breaks the model. It refuses to see the historical record as a given template of the future. He believes that these emergency times require heroic and unconventional measures. It’s a good bet that a majority of Americans agree with him on this point. Getting people to vote their conscience is the real challenge.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 20:25

  • IRS Hits MyPillow With Five Audits: Mike Lindell
    IRS Hits MyPillow With Five Audits: Mike Lindell

    Last week we noted that MyPillow has been “crippled” by American Express, according to CEO Mike Lindell.

    On Saturday, Lindell said that his company is now facing five IRS audits related to employees who worked remotely during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    “It started in California. Now there’s three other states that are coming at MyPillow. And Steve, it’s disgusting,” Lindell told Bannon on the “War Room” podcast.

    “They just keep attacking. Now they’re going after our employees. They made it very personal,” he added.

    Lindell says the audits are punishment for supporting President Donald Trump and claims that the 2020 US election were stolen.

    “This is something that hasn’t happened in 15 years, and all of a sudden there’s 5 IRS audits against MyPillow in three different years,” said Lindell, who’s also facing a billion-dollar defamation lawsuit from Dominion Voting Systems and anotehr from Smartmatic.

    In July, MyPillow auctioned off equipment from its Minnesota pillow factory after the company lost more than $100 million in retail sales, Lindell said at the time.

    “It was a massive, massive cancellation,” said Lindell. “We lost $100 million from attacks by the box stores, the shopping networks, the shopping channels, all of them did cancel culture on us.”

    The stores which dropped MyPillow products include;

    • Walmart
    • Bed Bath & Beyond
    • Slumberland Furniture

    In response, Lindell auctioned off more than 850 pieces of ‘surplus equipment’ online, including sewing machines, industrial fabric spreaders, conveyor belts, electric forklifts, and more.

    According to Lindell, the company is also subleasing some of its manufacturing space because the packaging for direct sales is different than what the company required when producing products for large retailers.

    “We kind of needed a building and a half, but now with these moves we’re making, we can get it down to our one building,” he said.

    “If the box stores ever came back we could have it if we needed it, but we don’t need that,” Lindell continued. “It affected a lot of things when you lose that big of a chunk [of revenue].“

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 20:05

  • Trump Campaign Asks RNC To Cancel All Future Debates
    Trump Campaign Asks RNC To Cancel All Future Debates

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    President Trump’s campaign team has asked the Republican National Committee to cancel all upcoming debates.

    Trump campaign managers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita issued a statement that reads “The Republican National Committee should immediately cancel the upcoming debate in Miami and end all future debates in order to refocus its manpower and money on preventing Democrats’ efforts to steal the 2024 election.”

    “Anything less, along with other reasons not to cancel, are an admission to the grassroots that their concerns about voter integrity are not taken seriously and national Republicans are more concerned about helping Joe Biden than ensuring a safe and secure election,” the statement adds.

    The call comes after the Fox News GOP debate last week which turned into a squabbling match between candidates who are almost all poll in the low single digits.

    Republicans, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich have called for more debates to be scrapped, noting that it is clear Trump will be the nominee.

    “Trump will be the nominee and the question now for everybody is do you want to see Joe Biden reelected or do you want to help Donald Trump? There’s no middle ground here,” Gingrich urged.

    Trump has also dismissed the notion of having any of the other candidates as a number two.

    “They are all running for a job,” Trump told a crowd in Michigan, adding “They’re all job candidates… they will do anything, secretary of something. They even say VP. I don’t know. Anybody see any VP in the group? I don’t think so.”

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 19:45

  • Mexico President Blasts US Billions To Ukraine As "Irrational" – Says Focus On Latin America
    Mexico President Blasts US Billions To Ukraine As “Irrational” – Says Focus On Latin America

    Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is no stranger to issuing pointed and scathing criticisms of Washington foreign policy.

    On Monday he did it again, but this time related to US military aid to Ukraine, at a sensitive moment that some Congressional Republican holdouts are trying to strip Ukraine funding from the defense budget. Lopez Obrador took the opportunity to question why more US foreign aid isn’t being invested in America’s own backyard. In this context, he blasted sinking billions into Ukraine as “irrational”. 

    “I was just looking at how now they’re not authorizing aid for the war in Ukraine,” he said during a daily press briefing. “But how much have they destined for the Ukraine war? 30 to 50 billion dollars for the war. Which is the most irrational thing you can have. And damaging.”

    Via AP

    “So they do have to modify their strategy and learn respect. It’s not the time for them to ignore Mexican authorities,” The Mexican president added.

    Reuters underscored that in the remarks he “urged Washington to devote more resources to helping Latin American countries.”

    The leftist Lopez Obrador has maintained a neutral stance regarding Ukraine, in line with other Global South countries, but has generally been supportive of a number of UN resolutions rebuking ‘Russian aggression’. 

    At the same time, he has still been more cooperative with Moscow than any of the big Western powers would ever be at this point, as Reuters also notes:

    Two weeks ago the president defended the presence of a Russian military unit in a weekend parade marking Mexico’s independence day, following sharp criticism that his country had given a platform to forces that invaded Ukraine.

    Lopez Obrador has also frequently taken aim at US sanctions, having just last week linked anti-Cuba and anti-Venezuela sanction to a surge in migrant activity across the region and at the US border.

    “They (the U.S.) don’t do anything,” he said last Friday, according to the Associated Press. “It’s more, a lot more, what they authorize for the war in Ukraine than what they give to help with poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean.”

    He called on US leaders “to remove blockades and stop harassing independent and free countries, an integrated plan for cooperation so the Venezuelans, Cubans, Nicaraguans and Ecuadorans, Guatemalans and Hondurans wouldn’t be forced to emigrate.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 19:25

  • McCarthy Won't Seek Speaker Position In Re-Vote; Trump Nominated By Nehls
    McCarthy Won’t Seek Speaker Position In Re-Vote; Trump Nominated By Nehls

    Update (1920T): Newly ousted former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will not seek reelection to the post when the chamber convenes to select a new candidate.

    According to Just the News, “McCarthy was removing his name from consideration when the House convenes to select a new speaker.”

    Following McCarthy’s ouster, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) called the former Speaker a “feature of the swamp.”

    “Kevin McCarthy couldn’t keep his word. He made an agreement in January regarding the way Washington would work, and he violated that agreement. We are $33 trillion in debt. We are facing $2.2 trillion annual deficits,” said McCarthy, adding “We face a de-dollarization globally that will crush Americans working class Americans. Kevin McCarthy is a feature of the swamp. He has risen to power by collecting special interest money and redistributing that money in exchange for favors.”

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    Meanwhile, Congressman Troy Nehls has nominated former President Donald Trump for Speaker.

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    Here’s where Goldman’s Alec Phillips sees things:

    1. The House has voted to remove Rep. McCarthy as speaker. House Financial Services Chairman McHenry (R-NC) will temporarily serve as caretaker speaker (speaker pro tempore) until a new speaker is elected. Legislative activity in the House will temporarily cease as Republicans reorganize. Selecting a speaker in January took 5 days, and it is possible the next selection could take several days as well.

    2. Although possible, we think it is very unlikely that the House will remain without a leader until Nov. 17, when the recent extension of spending authority expires. In the unlikely event that the House remains without a speaker in mid-November, we believe the speaker pro tempore would have the power to bring another temporary funding extension up for a vote, though the rules are somewhat unclear on this point and would ultimately come down to a decision by the House Parliamentarian.

    3. All other things equal, the leadership change raises the odds of a government shutdown in November, though with several weeks left until the deadline, many outcomes are possible. With many policy disputes remaining and a $120bn difference between the parties on the preferred spending level for FY2024, it is difficult to see how Congress can pass the 12 necessary full-year spending bills before funding expires Nov. 17. The next speaker is likely to be under even more pressure to avoid passing another temporary extension—or additional funding for Ukraine—than former Speaker McCarthy had been.

    4. We continue to view a shutdown in Q4 as the base case, likely when funding expires Nov. 17. That said, while a leadership vacuum raises the odds of a government shutdown, we still view a prolonged shutdown (i.e., more than 2-3 weeks) as unlikely given the political consequences of certain aspects of a shutdown, particularly a failure to pay servicemembers, which occurs twice a month (the next pay date at risk is Dec. 1).

    *  *  *

    Update (1635ET): After eight tumultuous months of pandering and lies (according to Rep. Matt Gaetz), Kevin McCarthy has been removed as Speaker of the House for the first time in US history.

    The final vote was 216-210.

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    The last time the House tried to evict a speaker was 1910, which failed.

    Rep. Patrick McHenry is now the acting speaker, as announced by the House Clerk. The next step is for the chamber to begin rounds of voting to elect a new Speaker, as we saw eight months ago.

    He’s just recessed the House so that the parties can meet and confer on a “way forward.” It was quite the tantrum…

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    The speaker pro tempore is imbued with all the powers of an elected speaker of the House. McCarthy hand-picked McHenry (R-N.C.) for this role when he was elected speaker in January. The pro tempore is kept as a secret, held by the clerk of the House, until a speaker is removed or incapacitated, a process designed after Sept. 11, 2001, to ensure continuity of government. -Politico

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    Oh brother…

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    Update (1630ET): The House is now voting on the motion to remove McCarthy, and – unless Democrats intervene, Gaetz has enough votes to vacate him as Speaker after six Republicans voted ‘aye’ (Biggs, Buck, Burchett, Crane, Gaetz and Good).

    Watch Live:

     

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    Update (1435ET): The House is now voting on whether to move forward with the ouster vote, or to ‘table’ it – which would save McCarthy.

    Update: The ‘motion to table’ has failed, and the House will now move forward with debate ahead of a vote on Gaetz’s effort to remove McCarthy.

    *  *  *

    Update (1323ET): It appears that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy may actually be out of a job, just eight months after he bent over backwards (and forward?) to land it.

    In a ‘Dear Colleage’ letter, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries tells his ‘troops’ that “House Democratic leadership will vote yes on the pending Republican motion to vacate the chair.“

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    House Dems are falling in line.

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    Days after narrowly averting a government shutdown by striking a secret side-deal with Democrats over Ukraine funding, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) faces the biggest challenge to his Speakership by the same group of House conservatives who delayed his rise to power eight months ago.

    On Monday night, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed a motion to formally remove McCarthy from his role as speaker – a vote for which McCarthy says he’ll get out of the way first thing today, while CNBC says the vote should begin at 2pm ET.

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    In short, only Democrats may be able to save McCarthy – who says he hasn’t made any deals with the Democrats who he says “haven’t asked for anything,” following a Monday night call with House Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) – who will ultimately decide McCarthy’s fate.

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    While the minority party in the House typically doesn’t support the majority’s choice for speaker, motions to vacate are rare – and this situation hasn’t been seen in more than a century.

    According to the Guardian, Gaetz and his allies have the votes to remove McCarthy.

    In a notice to lawmakers, Democratic whip Katherine Clark’s office said votes on the motion to vacate Kevin McCarthy from his position as speaker of the House could take place “at any time after the House convenes at 12:00 p.m. today.”

    Before voting on the motion itself, McCarthy’s allies may move to table the proposal, which, if successful, would block the motion to vacate, and save McCarthy’s speakership. That would need a simply majority to pass, and, the way the numbers are looking now, can’t be achieved without Democratic help.

    “Members should keep their schedules flexible and be prepared to vote at the appropriate time,” reads the notice.

    Gaetz and his Freedom Caucus allies were livid on Sunday after it emerged that McCarthy had made a secret side-deal with Democrats for more Ukraine funding, in exchange for passage of a continuing resolution that will keep the government running through mid-November.

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    Developing…

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 19:21

  • NY Judge Issues Gag Order After Trump Targets Clerk
    NY Judge Issues Gag Order After Trump Targets Clerk

    Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times,

    Former President Donald Trump attended day two of the civil fraud case against him that’s gone to trial in New York. After flip-flopping several times on his opinion of the presiding judge, New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron, he made a disparaging post on social media mid-day about Justice Engoron’s staffer.

    Justice Engoron is known to regularly confer with his clerk Allison Greenfield on cases. President Trump had made a post on Truth Social, linking to an Instagram account with a photo of Ms. Greenfield with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), attacking her and claiming she was “running” the case and making unsubstantiated claims about their relationship. The post was amplified by a campaign email blast on Tuesday, and millions had seen it.

    When the court broke for a lunch break, two closed-door meetings were held. After a delay, the trial resumed at 3 p.m. and the judge explained that he had ordered the post be taken down.

    The post was deleted by the time the trial resumed.

    “Personal attacks on members of my court staff are unacceptable and inappropriate,” Justice Engoron said. He added that he had already warned both parties against such attacks on Monday.

    “Consider this a gag order on all parties with respect to posting or publicly speaking about any member of my staff,” he said, adding that violations of this order would not be tolerated and would result in sanctions.

    President Trump’s legal team has already been sanctioned by Justice Engoron multiple times, who ruled that the attorneys had made “frivolous” arguments repeatedly even after he had dismissed them.

    First Testimony

    Last September, New York Attorney General Letitia James sued the former president claiming he defrauded the state by inflating his net worth to obtain more favorable deals from insurers and banks between 2011 and 2021. She is seeking $250 million in damages and to bar President Trump and his two adult sons from doing business in the state.

    The judge has already ruled President Trump liable for fraud and ordered the dissolution of the Trump Organization, and the trial will deal with several other claims Ms. James made in regard to falsifying financial statements, as well as the fate of President Trump’s businesses and properties.

    After repeated attempts from President Trump’s side to delay the case from going to trial, the case kicked off Monday with an unprecedented appearance from the former president. He entered the courthouse last minute, gave multiple remarks to the press, and closely scrutinized the evidence presented in court from the front row.

    President Trump, who is also polling as the frontrunner in the 2024 presidential elections, told reporters he would much rather be campaigning, but was attending the trial to “expose” the “fraud” and the “scam” that had been committed against him by what he described as a “rigged” prosecutor, case, and judge.

    Donald Bender, former partner at tax investigation firm Mazars USA, was the first to take to the witness stand. He was questioned by Kevin Wallace, attorney for the prosecution, on Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning, and was to be cross-examined by the defense Tuesday afternoon.

    Mr. Bender worked closely with the Trump Organization from 2011 to 2021, and prepared President Trump’s personal tax returns from 2009 to 2018. He said he spent about half his time working on the Trump Organization and frequently went to the Trump Tower offices.

    Mr. Bender was shown document after document from 2011 to 2020, and asked repeatedly whether he would have submitted the financial statements if he knew that the Trump Organization had withheld information.

    The prosecution sought to establish that it was the Trump Organization’s responsibility to provide accurate accounting, not Mazars.

    Mr. Bender testified to a letter from the Trump Organization that contained language stating it was responsible for the accurate accounting, noting that documents contained a red “prepared by the client” notation and that figures were copied and pasted from what he was provided by the Trump Organizations in some documents. He also testified regarding a letter from the Trump Organization stating that it had not knowingly withheld any relevant financial data.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 19:05

  • Fatal NYC Stabbing Of Social-Justice Activist Caught On CCTV
    Fatal NYC Stabbing Of Social-Justice Activist Caught On CCTV

    For the second time in a week, a left-wing activist has been murdered in a major US city, where soft-on-crime Democrat policies have resulted in record crime.

    On Monday, social justice advocate Ryan Carson was stabbed in the Crown Heights neighborhood of New York City.

    According to police, Carson was walking with his girlfriend after a wedding when a suspect approached and asked “What are you looking at?” before stabbing Carson in the chest several times. The victim, 32, was pronounced dead at Kings County Hospital.

    Footage of the incident was obtained by the NY Post.

    According to CBS News, Carson was a campaign manager with the NY Public Interest Research Group.

    Reactions to the stabbing were as expected:

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    This is the second incident of a social justice warrior murdered in a major Democrat-run city in the last week.

    On Saturday, a left-wing Philadelphia journalist who mocked concern over rising crime in Democrat-run cities was shot to death in his home.

    Josh Kruger was shot seven times after someone entered his home, shot him at the base of his stairs, and then fled. Kruger ran outside seeking help from his neighbors and collapsed, where police found them after responding to call just before 1:30 a.m. on the 2300 block of Watkins Street.

    Kruger, 39, was rushed to the Penn Presbyterian Medical Center, where he died just before 2:15 a.m.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 18:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Oct 03

Today’s News 3rd October 2023

  • Putin Orders First-Ever Nationwide Nuclear Drill, Prepares Bomb-Test At Arctic Circle
    Putin Orders First-Ever Nationwide Nuclear Drill, Prepares Bomb-Test At Arctic Circle

    Via Remix News,

    Russia will hold its first nationwide drill simulating widespread nuclear strikes on the country, daily Magyar Hírlap writes.

    The one-day nuclear attack exercise is based on the assumption that NATO will launch a nuclear strike on Russia, destroying 70 percent of Russian housing and life-support facilities. In the scenario, martial law is imposed in the country and a full-scale mobilization is ordered.

    The test will also model the secondary threat posed by damage to nuclear power plants and other key facilities.

    State and regional authorities will have to organize emergency rescue teams to provide food, medical supplies and protection against radiation.

    According to the preparatory document, there is a need to prepare for an escalation of war, including a global conflict involving nuclear powers.

    The permanent relocation of the population from the life-threatened zone will be similar to Chernobyl, involving an internal population transfer on an unprecedented scale.

    Putin, meanwhile, is moving to one of his nuclear bunkers around the country to escape the simulated nuclear Armageddon. In the event of a real nuclear war, he has a fleet of “Doomsday” Il-80 Maxdome aircraft that can act as an air control center.

    The exercise is being held four days before Putin’s 71st birthday.

    Not only is the national disaster exercise seen as a training exercise for nuclear war, but preparations are also underway for a nuclear explosion test in the Arctic Circle.

    Russian Defense Minister Sergei Soygu visited Novaya Zemlya in August, signaling that tests could soon resume after a break of several decades.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/03/2023 – 02:00

  • Escobar: Nagorno-Karabakh Is No More
    Escobar: Nagorno-Karabakh Is No More

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    Why would the current administration in Yerevan ever care for a few lost souls in Artsakh?

    In the end, Nagorno-Karabakh – or the Artsakh Republic – is no more.

    It will cease to exist on 1 January 2024 – also the first day of the Russian presidency of BRICS 11.

    All autonomous state structures will be dissolved – according to a decree signed by the head of the Republic, Samvel Shahramanyan.

    The population – roughly 147,000, 99% of them Armenian Christians – has a choice that’s not really a choice: “familiarize themselves with the conditions of reintegration presented by the Republic of Azerbaijan” and stay, or leave to Armenia for good.

    Predictably, the exodus is on: an interminable serpent of vehicles congesting the mountain roads of a beautiful landscape where generations of Armenians lived for centuries. As of Thursday night, over 70,000 Armenians had left towards the Syunik region.

    The Azeri government in Baku sent police/security forces to Stepanakert. Former Foreign Minister Ruben Vardanyan, an oligarch, was detained by Azeri security while trying to leave for Armenia, mingling with refugees. He had renounced Russian citizenship last year when he moved to work in Artsakh. He’ll probably be freed.

    Others won’t be so lucky. Everyone leaving is being exhaustively searched. Baku has warned that every Artsakh notable – political and military – will be captured.

    This is how it sadly ends: the story of how a bunch of crooks – Team Pashinyan in Yerevan – profited personally from a geopolitical pretext.

    Armenian PM Pashinyan announced that in a few days he’ll consider there are no more Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. Translation: those that decided to stay will be considered to be Azerbaijanis.

    Yet for Baku, Armenians from Artsakh will always remain Armenians – and thus an object of suspicion.

    It’s all about the Zangezur corridor

    Armenian priests are starting to ask for people power to come up with regime change in Yerevan to save the nation. It’s clear that Syunik will be the next Armenian territory to fall – considering both Azerbaijan and Turkey have their eyes on its strategic position. If Baku takes Syunik, Armenian Orthodox Christian priests will definitely be in hot water.

    The crucial fact is that the November 2020 armistice between Armenia and Azerbaïjan, with Russian involvement, was not respected either by Baku or Yerevan.

    Moscow didn’t do much except showing that Pashinyan gave Artsakh away to Baku – which in itself is outrageous and a violation of the armistice: imagine that the object of a war was relinquished by the attacked country to the attacker.

    What Baku really wanted was the opening of the Zangezur corridor – and that was also part of the armistice. The corridor was supposed to be controlled by Russian guards.

    Yerevan did nothing about it. Baku for its part kept provoking skirmishes in Artsakh and Syunik. And on top of it did not respect a clause stipulating the building of a road allowing Armenians to travel back and forth to Artsakh. In fact Baku blocked Artsakh by taking over the Lachin road.

    As corridors go, Zangezur is the proverbial Chinese win-win.

    Azerbaijan links with its Nakhitchevan enclave and Turkiye. Russia gets a road that goes through Baku and Yerevan. Armenia opens itself to international trade. And Iran is satisfied that the manager will be the former owner of the place: Russia.

    Ay, there’s the rub. The usual suspects were not happy that Russian guards would be back in Armenia. So they sabotaged this clause via their agent Pashinyan.

    The record shows how Team Pashinyan behaved these past few months: Armenia’s First Lady visited Kiev; Yerevan transferred “humanitarian aid” to Ukraine; there were joint military exercises with the U.S.; frantic back and forth by U.S. and EU politicos and NGOs.

    Relations with Moscow are deteriorating fast. Yerevan – a juicy strategic target – is being taken over by the Hegemon and its vassals. It’s not an accident that Yerevan hosts the second largest American embassy in the world.

    So only one thing is certain: the Transcaucasus will continue to be on fire.

    Empire of Chaos strikes again

    It’s not clear what will happen to Zangezur – and if and when Pashinyan will act on it. There’s always a – remote – possibility that Pashinyan, egged on by his Western handlers, may try to strike a deal with Aliyev to leave Russia out.

    The Russian Foreign Ministry has not minced its words, noting how Yerevan “flip flopped on policy and sought Western support over working closely with Russia and Azerbaijan”. And how in meetings in Prague and Brussels under the EU, Pashynian “acknowledged Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, but failed to address the rights and safety of the Karabakh Armenians.”

    The Foreign Ministry all but warns Pashynian that “unlike the West which has become quite skilled in organising color revolutions, Moscow does not engage in such activities.”

    At the same time, “a frenzied anti-Russian campaign has swept the Armenian media at the behest of the authorities. We are convinced that the Armenian leadership is making a huge mistake by deliberately attempting to sever Armenia’s multifaceted and centuries-old ties with Russia, making the country a hostage to Western geopolitical games. We are confident that the overwhelming majority of the Armenian population realises this as well.”

    Well, USAID head Samantha “Batshit Crazy” Power is in Armenia right now, “affirming U.S. support for Armenia’s democracy, sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity and commitment to addressing humanitarian needs stemming from Nagorno-Karabakh”.

    Nonsense. This is all about the Empire of Chaos conquering a strategic asset close to Russia: Armenia is a member of the CSTO and the EAEU. There are more than 25 USAID projects being implemented in Armenia. Why would the current administration in Yerevan ever care for a few lost souls in Artsakh?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 23:40

  • Philly Police Seek Biker Who Stomped Out Back Window Of Sedan Where Two Innocent Children Sat
    Philly Police Seek Biker Who Stomped Out Back Window Of Sedan Where Two Innocent Children Sat

    Philadelphia Police are seeking help from the community trying to find a motorcyclist who jumped through the back window of a vehicle on Sunday night while two innocent children sat in the back seat. 

    On Monday morning a video started making its way around social media showing a gang of motorcycle and quad riders in Philadelphia swarming a vehicle stopped in traffic outside of City Hall in Center City, Philadelphia. 

    The video — captured by a tourist sitting atop of a double decker bus — shows a motorcycle rider stop alongside a sedan before jumping on the back of the vehicle and busting out its back window. While jumping, the perpetrator’s gun fell from his pants. The female driver got out of the vehicle to confront the biker, who then headbutted her with his helmet. 

    Almost all of the vehicles in question did not have license plates, though several did but were affixed with tape to hide their plate numbers. 

    Fox 29’s Steve Keeley, who is one of the only journalists in the city with the courage to confront the crime epidemic the city is undergoing (and who has been villainized for it), reported: “9pm last night, George Colony from Florida watched helplessly as a male on motorcycle kicked in back windshield where two kids sitting.”

    Keeley also posted video of the incident:

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    “He had a gun that fell out of his waistband as he jumped down off her car. He then headbutted her with the visor of his helmet, as she fights back despite him being armed & she being way outnumbered,” Keeley wrote. 

    He wrote that the woman is an Uber Eats driver who brings her kids with her because a babysitter is “too costly”.

    He noted that Philadelphia Police are seeking information on the motorcycle rider:

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    Recall, Philadelphia just underwent mass looting last week that resulted in stores closing. Not unlike the crowd on Sunday, last week a crowd of 100 young people looted retail shops. 

    Police Commissioner John Stanford said the teens began looting stores around 2200 ET, which sparked a massive police presence across Walnut Street between 15th and 18th streets. 

    “What we had tonight was a bunch of criminal opportunists take advantage of a situation and make an attempt to destroy our city,” Stanford told reporters last week.

    He said, “It’s not going to be tolerated.” 

    We reported earlier this month that Philadelphia’s police commissioner, Danielle Outlaw – who has overseen years of surging crime, property destruction and violent attacks in the Northeast city – has had enough and was stepping down. 

    After overseeing a massive crime wave in Philadelphia, Mayor Jim Kenney praised her work in the city, focusing not on the merits of her work (of which there are few), but her “reform” of “racism and gender discrimination”, stating: “Commissioner Outlaw has worked relentlessly for three and a half years during an unprecedented era in our city and a number of crisis situations, and she deserves praise for her commitment to bring long-overdue reform to the Department after years of racism and gender discrimination prior to her appointment.” 

    It doesn’t seem like any left leaning public officials are actually interested in their jobs in Philadelphia – perhaps, rather, just collecting their pensions. Recall in 2022 we wrote when Mayor Kenney said he was “looking forward to the time he will no longer lead the city”.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 23:20

  • Judge Upholds Federal Bump Stock Ban
    Judge Upholds Federal Bump Stock Ban

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal judge has upheld the ATF’s ban on bump stocks, devices that boost firing speed.

    A bump stock is attached to a semi-automatic rifle at the Gun Vault store and shooting range in South Jordan, Utah, on Oct. 4, 2017. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer/File)

    U.S. District Judge Jill N. Parrish ruled on Sept. 29 (pdf) that the prohibition on bump stocks imposed administratively by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) several years ago was appropriate.

    “This court concludes that the regulation is an appropriate exercise of the agency’s discretion to fill gaps implicitly left by Congress,” and so “it declines to declare the rule unlawful or enjoin its enforcement,” wrote Ms. Parrish, an appointee of former President Barack Obama.

    The lawsuit opposing the bump stock ban was brought by the New Civil Liberties Alliance (NCLA) on behalf of firearms instructor Clark Aposhian. It is one of several challenging the ATF’s ban on bump stocks, which are accessories that attach to semi-automatic firearms.

    Bump stocks were banned in 2019 when the Department of Justice (DOJ) amended regulations of the ATF, classifying bump stocks as equivalent to machine guns and making them illegal.

    The NCLA did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the ruling. But the NCLA’s litigation counsel, Caleb Kruckenberg, earlier called the case a “perfect example, unfortunately, of what we call the administrative state.” remove

    “What I mean by that is with no intervening action from Congress with no change in the law, the ATF has said that they know better than Congress, and the ATF is trying to rewrite the statute. But that’s not their role,” Mr. Kruckenberg said in a video posted on the group’s website.

    “Congress is supposed to write the laws and the executive branch acting through the agencies are supposed to apply them,” he added.

    Congressional interest in bump stocks grew after authorities found that the gunman who perpetrated a mass shooting in Las Vegas in 2017 attached them to several of his semi-automatic firearms.

    Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), points to a photograph of a rifle with a bump stock during a news conference to announce proposed gun control legislation at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Oct. 4, 2017. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    The ATF’s administrative rule change amended the regulatory text by adding the following language: “The term ‘machine gun’ includes bump-stock devices, i.e., devices that allow a semiautomatic firearm to shoot more than one shot with a single pull of the trigger by harnessing the recoil energy of the semi-automatic firearm to which it is affixed so that the trigger resets and continues firing without additional physical manipulation of the trigger by the shooter.”

    Several bump stock owners, including Mr. Aposhian, filed lawsuits challenging the ban, seeking to block it from going into effect. A common argument was that the ATF promulgated the rule in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act (APA).

    While the case is technically about bump stocks, the NCLA’s Mr. Kruckenberg said it’s about much more than banning a gun accessory—”This case is about who gets to write the law.”

    In a series of decisions, the U.S. Courts of Appeals for the Tenth and D.C. Circuits rejected APA-based challenges to the rule, while the Sixth Circuit was evenly split, leading to a district court upholding the ban. The U.S. Supreme Court declined to review the three cases.

    By contrast, the Fifth Circuit ruled in January 2023 that the rule violates the APA that an act of Congress is required to ban bump stocks. This lawsuit was brought by Michael Cargill, owner of Central Texas Gun Works in Austin.

    “Cargill is correct. A plain reading of the statutory language, paired with close consideration of the mechanics of a semi-automatic firearm, reveals that a bump stock is excluded from the technical definition of ‘machine gun’ set forth in the Gun Control Act and National Firearms Act,” the Fifth Circuit said in its ruling.

    A bump fire stock that attaches to a semi-automatic rifle to increase the firing rate, at Good Guys Gun Shop in Orem, Utah, on Oct. 4, 2017. (George Frey/Reuters)

    More Details

    The Fifth Circuit ruling stated that semi-automatic weapons fitted with bump stocks don’t fall under the definition of a machine gun because one pull of the trigger corresponds to the firing of a single bullet.

    “Without a bump stock or the use of an alternative bump technique, the user must provide manual input by pulling the trigger with the muscles of his trigger finger. With a bump stock, the shooter need not pull and release his trigger finger. But the shooter must still apply forward pressure to the weapon’s forebody in order to maintain the shooting mechanism,” U.S. Circuit Judge Jennifer Eldrod wrote in the opinion. “Again, the manual input remains, even though its form changes.”

    Dissenting judges argued that the statutory language is ambiguous enough to support classifying bump stocks as machine guns and that court used “lenity to legalize an instrument of mass murder.”

    Lenity is a principle in law that calls for any ambiguity in a criminal statute to be interpreted in favor of the defendant, resulting in a more narrow interpretation of the law.

    In April 2023, the DOJ petitioned the Supreme Court to hear its appeal of the Fifth Court’s ruling in favor of Mr. Cargill that halted the bump stock ban.

    The NCLA said in June that it supports Supreme Court review of the case, saying it believes that the ruling would uphold the Fifth Court’s decision to strike down the prohibition.

    “The Fifth Circuit held that the ‘rule of lenity’ requires that ambiguities in criminal statutes be construed against the government so that ordinary citizens will not be punished unless they have clear notice of the conduct that is prohibited,” Richard Samp, NCLA senior litigation counsel, said in a statement.

    “NCLA is urging the Supreme Court, if it agrees to hear Mr. Cargill’s case, to address whether the rule of lenity requires rejection of ATF’s rule,” he added.

    The case remains pending before the Supreme Court.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 23:00

  • Trump Lead Widens After Second GOP Presidential Debate: Poll
    Trump Lead Widens After Second GOP Presidential Debate: Poll

    Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

    Former President Donald Trump has further solidified his lead in the Republican presidential primary, following the second GOP debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in Simi Valley, California.

    Former President Donald Trump speaks to a crowd during a campaign rally in Summerville, S.C., on Sept. 25, 2023. (Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

    “63% of potential Republican primary voters support Donald Trump for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination, up from 58% in our survey released Monday ahead of the latest primary debate,” Morning Consult said in its survey released on Sept. 29.

    In comparison, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, seen as Mr. Trump’s biggest rival, saw his support dip from 15 percent to 12 percent after the second debate, though the Florida governor is still in second place.

    [ZH: According to PredictIt, the figures look even worse for DeSantis…]

    The survey, which polled 1,183 potential GOP primary voters, was conducted on Sept. 28, one day after the second debate, which Trump didn’t attend. Instead, he spent the debate night in battleground Michigan, delivering a speech to striking auto workers.

    Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley both lost 2 percentage points since the debate. Mr. Ramaswamy is at 9 percent and Ms. Haley is at 5 percent.

    Former Vice President Mike Pence lost one percentage point and is at 5 percent. Meanwhile, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) did not see any change after the debate, remaining at 2 percent.

    “This data reinforces our view that Trump is in the driver’s seat of the Republican primary, and that Trump-less debates aren’t having much of an impact on the other candidates’ national support, and may in fact be helping the former president,” the survey concludes.

    In August, Morning Consult found that the support for President Trump went unchanged at 58 percent after he skipped the first GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee. Instead of attending the debate, the former president aired a pre-recorded interview he did with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

    The second debate, which was aired on Fox News Channel and Fox Business, drew 3.5 million fewer viewers than the first debate.

    Even with the absence of President Trump, the seven GOP presidential contenders did not make a breakthrough in the second debate, as they argued over topics including China, the border crisis, crime, fentanyl, and education.

    (L–R) North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former South Carolina Gov. and U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and former Vice President Mike Pence at the second Republican presidential primary debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif. on Sept. 27, 2023. (Pedro Ugarte /AFP via Getty Images)

    Mr. Ramaswamy finished third with 18 percent saying they were more likely to support him, ahead of Mr. Pence with 16 percent, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie with 15 percent, and Mr. Scott with 14 percent.

    Following the second debate, Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to President Trump’s 2024 campaign, urged the Republican National Committee (RNC) to cancel future debates.

    “Tonight’s GOP debate was as boring and inconsequential as the first debate, and nothing that was said will change the dynamics of the primary contest being dominated by President Trump,” Mr. LaCivita said on Sept. 27.

    Mr. LaCivita added, “The RNC should immediately put an end to any further primary debates so we can train our fire on Crooked Joe Biden and quit wasting time and money that could be going to evicting Biden from the White House.”

    According to Mr. LaCivita, Mr. Trump has no plans to attend future GOP presidential debates, after skipping the first two. The third debate is set to take place in Miami on Nov. 8.

    The former president is scheduled to host the Iowa Commit to Caucus event in Ottumwa, Iowa, on Oct. 1.

    “Just landed in the Great State of Iowa,” President Trump wrote on his Truth Social account on early Sunday. “Remember, I got the farmers 28 Billion Dollars from China. Nobody else would have even thought of doing that, and if they did, wouldn’t have been able to get it done!”

    The former president was also in Iowa on Sept. 20, when he told supporters in Dubuque that he would use troops to secure the southern border if reelected.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 22:20

  • "Severe Crash" Looms For CRE Office Towers, Turmoil Lasting Years, Bloomberg Survey Finds
    “Severe Crash” Looms For CRE Office Towers, Turmoil Lasting Years, Bloomberg Survey Finds

    About seven months ago, panic gripped financial markets over the regional bank meltdown, primarily due to exposure to the commercial real estate space, specifically office towers. Since then, many market participants have forgotten the turmoil, but not all have done so. 

    A new weekly survey of Terminal users by Bloomberg’s Markets Live team finds two-thirds of the 919 respondents believe the office tower market needs to crash before a rebound can be seen. 

    Nearly half (44%) of respondents said tower prices will trough in the second half of 2024. About 29% believe 2025 or later. 

    Terminal users likely understand what Morgan Stanley pointed out earlier this year: a staggering $2.5 trillion in debt maturities and rollovers at much higher rates over the next five years:

    Last month, Kyle Bass told Bloomberg TV that the US banking industry will lose hundreds of billions of dollars from exposure to the office market amid shifting workplace trends and elevated interest rates.

    “Banks in the US will lose $200, $250 billion in office over time here,” Bass, founder of Hayman Capital Management, best known for correctly predicting and profiting from the bursting of the subprime housing bubble. He noted, “And there’s about $2 trillion of equity in the banks so it’s like a 10% hit to US banking equity.”

    What’s clear is that refinancing won’t be pretty for building owners. A Green Street commercial property index shows towers have already fallen 16% from a peak in March 2022. 

    “Nobody wants to sell at a huge loss,” said Lea Overby, an analyst at Barclays Plc. “These are properties that don’t need to be sold for long periods of time, and that means holders are likely to delay a sale as long as they can.”

    According to a March report from Goldman Sachs, regional banks hold about 30% of office tower debt as of 2022. Small banks have seen deposits shrink 2% over the last 12 months ending August. That means less funding. 

    Bloomberg noted it could take several years for some building owners to experience pressure from higher rates:

    Pain from higher interest rates can take years to filter through to owners of the US commercial real estate, which Morgan Stanley values at $11 trillion in total. Investors in office buildings, for example, often have long-term fixed-rate financing in place, and their tenants can be subject to long- term leases as well.

    It will take until 2027 for leases that are in place today to roll over to lower revenue expectations, according to research by Moody’s Investors Service published in March. If current trends hold, then revenues by then will be 10% lower than today.

    Barclays’s Overby said the office tower market “will take a long time to work out,” adding she isn’t too worried about the threat of the overall CRE market because “debt is spread across a wide enough array of investors to absorb losses.” 

    Meanwhile, a recent report from the Morgan Stanley team expects CRE prices to be down 27.4% from peak to trough in 18 to 24 months this cycle, not that far off from the -34.9% during the GFC in 34 months, which will range from a decline of 15% for apartments to a stunning plunge of 40% for office. 

    In places like San Francisco and Baltimore, some office tower prices have already crashed:

    While progressive corporate media outlets tend to attribute the decline of office towers in metro areas to Covid and the rise of remote work, there’s another seldom-discussed factor at play: disastrous social justice reforms that have triggered lawlessness, forcing companies to move to the suburbs or even to states that embrace law and order. 

    To sum up, office districts in Democrat cities will be dead for years. This will have significant impacts on recovery and taxes. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 22:00

  • New Details Emerge After Woman Found Dead In NJ Trucker's Rig
    New Details Emerge After Woman Found Dead In NJ Trucker’s Rig

    By Clarissa Hawes of FreightWaves

    A new report is offering more details about what led investigators to file murder charges against a New Jersey truck driver after a woman was found dead on the floorboard of his tractor-trailer in Maryland.

    Matthew Sidney Watley, 46, of Sicklerville, New Jersey, has been charged with first- and second-degree murder after Candice Thompson, 46, also of Sicklerville, reportedly was found dead in the cab of his truck at a Costco Distribution Center in Monrovia, Maryland.

    The charging documents state that a detective with the Frederick County Sheriff’s Office was able to positively identify Thompson with the assistance of the Winslow Township Police Department in Camden County, New Jersey, noting that their office had “a long history of domestic violence between Watley and Thompson.”

    What happened?

    According to the charging documents, a truck driver parked at the distribution center told investigators that he heard Watley say, “Help me, help me,” and went over to see if he was OK. After climbing up on the running boards on the driver’s side of the silver Freightliner Cascadia Watley was driving, the witness reportedly saw blood on the center of the dash and Watley lying down between the seats.

    The driver told investigators that he heard a sound that made him think that Watley was cutting or stabbing himself and that he jumped down and drove to the guard station at Costco to notify security that Watley was possibly “having a medical issue or trauma.”

    Deputies with the Frederick County Sheriff’s Office in Maryland reportedly used stop sticks, pepper spray and then a Taser to subdue Watley after they were called to conduct a wellness check at his truck around 1:30 a.m. Sept. 24.

    Charging documents claim deputies attempted to talk to Watley several times but that he refused to answer and was incoherent when speaking. He also refused deputies’ demands to put his vehicle in park and shut the vehicle off and “would rev the engine of the tractor-trailer.” 

    Watley’s tires slowly began to lose air after he attempted to drive out of the gate and into the Costco parking lot. 

    Deputies were able to eventually arrest Watley. The charging document states a deputy found Thompson’s body lying face down in the cab of the truck between the driver’s and passenger’s seats and observed “two large gashes that were close together on her back.” More wounds were found later on her back, right hand and face. Thompson’s cause of death has not been released.

    A claw hammer and two folding-style knives were located next to the driver’s side door of Watley’s truck, according to the report. 

    Trucking company owner speaks out

    Parminder Singh, owner of PAA Trucking LLC, of Westville, New Jersey, said Watley had worked for him for nearly six months prior to his arrest. He added that Watley had worked for him previously, about two years ago.

    “He had an accident and damaged one of my trailers. He had gone on a low bridge and hit it — and I had to fire him,” Singh told FreightWaves. “He kept calling me to come back, to give him back his job.”

    Singh said he’s unclear why Watley was at the Costco Distribution Center in Monrovia, stating he was supposed to deliver a load of pineapples to Del Monte Fresh Produce in Jessup, Maryland, about 50 miles away. 

    “I don’t know why he drove to Costco — he was supposed to be in Jessup,” Singh said. “This has really messed me up. It’s been a bad thing for my company.” 

    Singh said he met with Watley about 12 hours prior to his arrest to collect paperwork and hand him his paycheck and the new paperwork for the Del Monte load, which had to be delivered by 11 p.m. Sept. 23.

    “It was raining so he [Watley] got out of the truck and walked over to my pickup truck and we talked there,” Singh said. 

    He said that what stands out from Singh’s conversation with Watley was that the driver asked if he could go home first to take a shower and do laundry before delivering the load of pineapples.

    Singh said Watley told him he was staying at his mother’s home in Sicklerville.

    Singh said he tried calling and texting Watley around 11:30 p.m. but he didn’t answer. Singh also said Watley’s GPS tracking system had been turned off or wasn’t working. 

    Singh said he received a call from the Frederick County Sheriff’s Office about 2:30 a.m. Sept. 24 that Watley had been arrested.

    Watley’s preliminary hearing is scheduled for Oct. 24. He is being held without bond after waiving his right to a bond hearing, according to Jacqueline Rottmann, communications specialist for the Frederick County State’s Attorney’s Office.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 21:40

  • I’m Fighting For Taxpayers: Gaetz
    I’m Fighting For Taxpayers: Gaetz

    Op-Ed authored by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) via RealClear Wire,

    I know who my bosses are. They aren’t the special interests in Washington, it isn’t party leadership, it’s my voters in Florida.

    Earlier this month, I sat down with some of my bosses in Destin, Florida for a podcast they host in their driveway. I was there to be held accountable. Congress has yet to achieve the things voters are asking for like term limits and a balanced budget.

    That’s what this fight in Congress is all about. It’s about making sure the promises we’ve made to voters are fulfilled. The Speaker made promises to me and other lawmakers in January, and I want to hold him to account. To be specific, that agreement includes a vote on term limits, a vote on a balanced budget amendment, single subject spending bills, and the full release of the January 6 tapes.

    This isn’t about politics or personality. It’s about sticking to our word, and getting our nation back on track.

    In Joe Biden’s America, families are having to pinch pennies, so Congress should too. Politicians that have spent decades running up America’s deficit are taking this personally.

    Rep. John Carter, who has been on the appropriations committee since 2005, recently attacked me as an “idiot” to a reporter. Okay. What’s idiotic is that our nation’s national debt has increased more than $25 trillion since 2005.

    Some people are desperate to make a policy battle personal, because their policy failures are personally embarrassing.

    We have to stop the fiscal insanity in Washington and get our spending under control. I’m not voting for a continuing resolution that funds Jack Smith’s election interference, dangerous chaos on the southern border, and money for the endless war in Ukraine.

    Just think about what it means for Congress to govern by Continuing Resolution. Every time we vote for a continuing resolution, we make no changes in policy or spending. It’s a vote to continue the status quo. If that’s all Congress is going to do, just replace us with AI bots, because we aren’t doing anything. The hearings are fun, but it’s the budgets where real policy changes are made.

    Moody’s chief economist recently said that the typical American household is spending $709 a month more than they were two years ago just to buy the same goods and services. That’s nearly $9,000 per year being stolen from Americans through the hidden tax of inflation.

    Americans literally cannot afford Washington’s reckless spending. Politicians in Washington DC – on both sides of the aisle – are robbing the American people and their grandchildren to pay for war in Ukraine, drag queen shows in Ecuador, an open border, free stuff for illegal immigrants, and the Biden Department of Justice’s illegal election interference.

    I came to Washington to be a voice for my voters and fix this once great nation. I’m not here to empower the Democrats’ radical agenda. I’ll be damned if I’m going to sit by and do nothing while greed and corruption destroys our great nation.

    Congressman Matt Gaetz (R) represents the 1st Congressional District of Florida. He is a member of the 117th Congress currently serving his third term in the U.S. House of Representatives. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 21:00

  • "It's Broken": Bill Clinton Now Opposes NYC "Sanctuary City" Laws As Migrant Crisis Spirals Out-Of-Control
    “It’s Broken”: Bill Clinton Now Opposes NYC “Sanctuary City” Laws As Migrant Crisis Spirals Out-Of-Control

    Former President Bill Clinton acknowledged Sunday that New York City’s ultra-progressive “Right to Shelter law” needs to be amended due to the migrant crisis. The open southern border policy started by the Biden administration two years ago was championed by Democrats, but now, many have ‘U-Turned’ and reversed their position on “Sanctuary City.” 

    “Gov. [Kathy] Hochul thinks it should be modified, and it probably should under the circumstances,” Clinton told host John Catsimatidis on 77 WABC radio’s “The Cats Roundtable” show. He added the migrant crisis spreading across US cities is not a good look for Democrats. 

    Clinton argued that NYC’s “Right to Shelter” law needs to be changed as tens of thousands of migrants flooded the city this year after crossing the southern border with Mexico. 

    “It’s broken. We need to fix it… It doesn’t make any sense,” Clinton said of the law. 

    “They come here, and we’re supposed to shelter people who can’t get work permits for six months. We need to change that,” he added.

    “They ought to work. They need to begin working, paying taxes and paying their way. Most of these people have no interest in being on welfare,” Clinton said.

    Days ago, Ingrid Lewis-Martin, chief advisor to Mayor Eric Adams, said NYC should not be responsible for housing migrants on the right to shelter laws in the state. 

    Clinton, like many other Democrats, is reversing course on Sanctuary City laws because the writing is on the wall that voters are fed up with the migrant crisis. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Responding to the post above, Elon Musk said, “They did literally ask for it.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In a separate post, Musk asked: “If New York is already buckling under the load and has run out of room, what will the situation be like a year from now?” He said, “The open border policy started under Biden two years ago. That policy was not in place under Obama, and Gov Hochul is Democrat not Republican, so this is not some D vs R political battle – it is specific to the current administration.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Musk noted over the weekend, “US Border Patrol just reported the highest number of recorded illegal immigrants in history at over 260,000 this month.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Mayor Adams warned last month that the migrant crisis will ‘destroy NYC’ and slammed the Biden administration for doing nothing about the problem they created.

    Even the liberals on The View don’t want migrants anymore

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    These migrants that Democrats welcomed into the US with open arms will be in for a cold awakening with the upcoming winter in NYC. 

    So what’s next? 

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 20:40

  • Victor Davis Hanson: California, The Great Destroyer
    Victor Davis Hanson: California, The Great Destroyer

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

    In 1996, the California legislature created the high speed rail authority.

    In 2008, voters passed a $33 billion bond to build an envisioned 800 mile project eventually to link Sacramento with San Diego.

    Fifteen years later, a scaled-down plan from Bakersfield to Merced remains not even half finished. Yet the envisioned costs will exceed that of the original estimate for the entire project.

    The rail authority now estimates that just the modest 178 mile route—only about a fifth of the authorized distance—will not be completed at least until 2030. Past high speed estimates of both time and cost targets have been widely wrong and perhaps deliberately misleading.

    Total costs for the entire project are now estimated at nearly $130 billion.

    Many expect that figure to double in the next quarter-century.

    Planners also concede there will likely not be much high speed rider demand from San Joaquin Valley residents willing to pay $86 to travel at a supposed 200 mph from Bakersfield to Merced.

    Nine years ago voters amid drought and water shortages also passed a state water bond, authorizing $7.5 billion in new water projects and initiatives.

    Some $2.7 billion was targeted for new dams and reservoirs. The current water storage system had not been enlarged since the early 1980s, when the state population was 15 million fewer residents.

    So far not a single dam or new reservoir has been built.

    And Californians expect more water rationing statewide anytime the state experiences a modest drought.

    In 2017, a $15 billion bond authorized a complete remodeling of Los Angeles International Airport—recognized as one of the more congested, disorganized, and unpleasant airports in America.

    Now the cost to complete the project has grown to an estimated $30 billion, with a proposed finish date of 2028—11 years after the project was authorized.

    And the ongoing LAX remake is considered one of California’s more successful public construction projects.

    In 2002, California began construction on the eastern span replacement of the iconic San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge—less than half of the bridge’s total length.

    It was scheduled to be finished in five years at a cost of $250 million.

    The job in fact took 11 years. And it cost $6.5 billion—a 2,500 percent increase over the estimate.

    In contrast, original construction of the entire Bay Bridge began in 1933, at the height of the Great Depression. Yet the job was completed in a little  more than three years.

    The list of such delayed, canceled, or prolonged projects could be expanded, from the proposed widening of the state’s overcrowded, antiquated, and dangerous north-to-south “freeways” to the now inert Peripheral Canal project that would have allowed the California aqueduct to transfer needed water southward by precluding the present inefficient pumping into and out of the San Francisco delta.

    So what happened to the can-do California of former governors Pat Brown, Ronald Reagan, George Deukmejian, and Pete Wilson? They had bequeathed to the Baby Boomer generation a well-run state, renowned for its state-of-the-art infrastructure.

    All four governors, a Democrat and Republicans, had ensured the nation’s most sophisticated higher education system, iconic freeways, and model water transference systems.

    The current disaster has many parents.

    A coastal culture of globally rich elites began passing some of the most stringent environmental and zoning regulations in the nation. Such Byzantine roadblocks deliberately stalled construction and skyrocketed costs—all of little concern to the “not-in-my-backyard” wealthy in their secluded coastal enclaves who had ensured the virtual end of infrastructure investments.

    The state’s public unions and bloated bureaucracies guaranteed Soviet-style overhead, incompetence, and unaccountability. The more California raised its income taxes—currently the nation’s highest topping out at 13.3 percent—the more it borrowed, spent, and ran up huge annual budget deficits.

    The nation’s highest gasoline taxes along with steep sales and property taxes—coupled with unaffordable fuel and housing, a homeless epidemic, dismal public schools, out-of-control crime, and mass, illegal immigration—soon all led to a bifurcated state of rich and poor.

    The middle class either became poor or fled.

    Indeed, businesses and millions of the middle class hightailed it out of California over the last three decades in one of the greatest state population exoduses in our nation’s history. But they also took with them the very prior experience, expertise, and capital that had once made California the nation’s envy.

    In contrast, millions of impoverished illegal immigrants arrived over the last 30 years without legality, English, or high school diplomas.

    And thus millions were immediately in dire need of costly state-supplied health, education, housing, and food subsidies. Currently well over half of all California births are paid for by Medi-Cal. Well over a third of the resident population depends on the state to provide all their health care needs.

    Twenty-seven percent of California’s resident population was not born in the United States. That reality created a vast challenge of civic education to ensure assimilation and integration. Unfortunately, millions entered California at precisely the time of a new tribalism and racial essentialism that has taken hold of the state’s government, media, schools, and universities. Tribalism, not the melting-pot, is California’s paradigm.

    California is a one-party state.

    There are no statewide Republican elected officeholders. Progressive Democrats also enjoy a supermajority in both houses of the legislature. Only 12 of 52 congressional seats are held by Republicans. And almost all of California leftwing politicians are funded or influenced by Silicon Valley—the richest corridor in civilizational history, with $9 trillion in market capitalization.

    In sum, a now broke California became a medieval society of Leftwing ultra-rich and Leftwing ultra-poor.

    On one end, there was no longer the skill or expertise to modernize the state.

    And on the other, an elite became more interested in dreaming of heaven on earth for itself as it ensured a veritable hell for others.

    There is one thing, however, that California does quite well: demolition.

    Currently it is destroying four dams on the Klamath River that had provided clean hydroelectrical power, water storage, flood control, and recreation. The media, the bureaucracy, and the politicians acted with unaccustomed dispatch to obliterate the dams and thus supposedly to liberate salmon to swim better upstream.

    And the state is blowing up these dams partly by directing hundreds of millions of dollars voters had allotted for reservoir construction—adding insult to the injury of state voters.

    A haughty green California also regulated timber companies out of business. It ceased traditional selective logging and clearing of brush from its forests.

    It also limited cattle grazing of grasses and shrubs. And it embraced  new “natural” forestry initiatives that postulated that rotting dead trees, dense brush, and tall summer grasses—dry kindling for devastating forest fires—created a rich “sustainable” ecosystem for wildlife. Letting nature be would prompt occasional “natural” corrective fires as in the nineteenth-century past.

    The predictable results were massive, destructive—and once preventable—forest fires in the Sierra Nevada mountains and foothills. During California summers, their vast plumes of soot and smoke have polluted the skies for months and sickened residents, destroyed hundreds of homes and businesses, and wiped out billions of dollars in valuable timber even as lumber prices soared.

    And California’s lesson for the nation?

    If you want to topple a statue, re-label an historically named street, burn up millions of pine and fir trees, blow up a dam, turn parks and the public square into dangerous and toxic squatter cities, then the state can do all of that and in record time.

    But try building something to ensure Californians can travel quickly and in safety, or have affordable power, homes, and fuel, and assured water?

    All that is simply beyond the current state’s comprehension, ability, and desire. So like modern Vandals or Goths, contemporary Californians are far better destroying the work of others than creating anything of their own.

    And what is next? We await the 2024 national elections, when a few California politicians may run for our highest offices, no doubt with the campaign promise, “I can do to America what I did to California.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 20:20

  • Starlink Now Operational Across Entire US As Elon Musk Becomes 'Uncancellable'
    Starlink Now Operational Across Entire US As Elon Musk Becomes ‘Uncancellable’

    For those living off-the-grid or using Starlink as a network redundancy in case of a grid failure, the SpaceX-owned space internet company announced on X that the service is now available across the Lower 48 after deploying next-generation satellites. 

    “Deployment of our second generation Starlink satellites, which have 4x more capacity than the first gen, enable us to connect even more people no matter where they live,” Starlink wrote in the post. 

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    It added: “Starlink is now available across the United States.” 

    Before this announcement, large swaths of the US were pending service, with notes on the map that read coverage would expand by late 2023 or early 2024. 

    Data from the website Starlink Satellite Tracker shows that 5,039 satellites have been launched into low Earth orbit over the last several years.

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    Of that, 4,207 are active, 591 have burned up, and 241 are inactive. 

    In recent weeks, Starlink announced over 2 million active users on the network worldwide, a doubling in active users in only nine months. 

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    We noted in August that the number of Americans searching “live off-grid” on the internet rose to the highest level in five years. We said at the time, “The driving force behind finding a rural piece of land for dirt cheap, buying or building a tiny home, installing solar panels, and sourcing your own food and water might have to do with the worst inflation storm in a generation while Democrat cities implode under the weight of soaring violent crime.” 

    Here’s what X users are saying:

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    How are you going to get high-speed internet in the sticks? Well, not through Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper, but instead Musk’s Starlink. 

    Democrats have tried to cancel Musk over the Starlink controversy in Ukraine. The fact is, as of right now, that’s impossible as the Pentagon needs the billionaire’s rockets and space internet as world war threats continue to emerge (read: here). 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 20:00

  • Gaetz Moves To Formally Remove McCarthy As Speaker
    Gaetz Moves To Formally Remove McCarthy As Speaker

    Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) on Monday moved to force a vote to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) after McCarthy enlisted Democrats to pass a Continuing Resolution to keep the government funded through mid-November, and cut a secret side-deal for Ukraine funding.

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    A vote on the motion will now be brought up within two legislative days, however the chamber can first use legislative maneuvering to kill or delay it, such as voting to table the resolution.

    Gaetz says he’ll try to oust McCarthy repeatedly, saying “Real chaos is when the American people have to go through the austerity that is coming.“

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsOn Sunday, Gaetz appeared on ABC‘s “This Week” to say that McCarthy will get his wish, and that he was going to file the motion this week.

    In a Monday op-ed, Gaetz wrote:

    We have to stop the fiscal insanity in Washington and get our spending under control. I’m not voting for a continuing resolution that funds Jack Smith’s election interference, dangerous chaos on the southern border, and money for the endless war in Ukraine.

    Just think about what it means for Congress to govern by Continuing Resolution. Every time we vote for a continuing resolution, we make no changes in policy or spending. It’s a vote to continue the status quo. If that’s all Congress is going to do, just replace us with AI bots, because we aren’t doing anything. The hearings are fun, but it’s the budgets where real policy changes are made.

    Of course, there’s no Republican in the House who both wants the job and could get the votes, after Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) said he’s out.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 19:30

  • NY Gov. Hochul Suddenly Shifts Gears On Illegal Immigration As Her State Is Overrun
    NY Gov. Hochul Suddenly Shifts Gears On Illegal Immigration As Her State Is Overrun

    Only a year ago NY Governor Kathy Hochul adamantly supported illegal immigration, and some argue she encouraged it by stating publicly that New York was “desperate for workers” and that the migrant were “good for the economy.”  However, as NYC and the state in general is being overrun with hundred of thousands of illegals, suddenly the governor has changed her tune – Now she believes at least “some restrictions” should be put in place to limit the number of people who enter the country. 

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    The abrupt change of heart follows a swiftly derailing situation in the sanctuary state, as local governments struggle to house and feed the surging invasion of asylum seekers demanding access to welfare services.  Reports from a year ago should have made the outcome obvious, with Illegals canvassing door-to-door in NYC asking for handouts and homeless shelters packed to capacity.  At the time, Hochul was more concerned with wristbands put on migrants bussed from Texas that had barcodes designed to show that they arrived safely to New York, calling the practice inhumane. 

    Today, Democrats from Washington DC to New York to Chicago are finally getting a taste of their own Robitussin and they really don’t like it.  The concept of open borders and sanctuary cities was perfectly acceptable to them, as long as they never had to deal with the direct consequences.  How quickly people adjust their thinking when the crisis they caused is on their doorstep.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 19:20

  • Sidney Powell Paid For Georgia Election Machine Examination Upon 'Threat', Her Lawyer Says
    Sidney Powell Paid For Georgia Election Machine Examination Upon ‘Threat’, Her Lawyer Says

    Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

    Sidney Powell, a former federal prosecutor charged with breaching election machines in Georgia, had nothing to do with the breach, save for paying for it after the fact, and only because the forensic firm that did it threatened to dump the data online, her lawyer said in a recent court filing.

    Sidney Powell, author of the bestseller “Licensed to Lie” and lead counsel in more than 500 appeals in the Fifth Circuit, in Washington on May 30, 2019. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

    Ms. Powell was charged as part of the election interference case against former President Donald Trump that was brought on Aug. 14 by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. It alleges that the efforts of President Trump and 18 others, including Ms. Powell, to challenge the 2020 election results amounted to a racketeering conspiracy.

    Ms. Willis has accused Ms. Powell of participating in the alleged conspiracy and conspiracies to commit computer trespass, computer theft, computer invasion of privacy, election fraud, and defrauding the state.

    The charges are tied to a Jan. 7, 2021, incident in which personnel of data forensic company SullivanStrickler copied data from election machines and computers in Coffee County, Georgia.

    The lawyer for Ms. Powell, Brian Rafferty, has vehemently denied the allegations and is seeking dismissal of the charges.

    Mr. Rafferty has argued that examination of the machines wasn’t a crime because it was authorized by the Coffee County Election Board. Even if the board didn’t ultimately have the authority to allow the examination, the people involved operated under the belief that their action was authorized. For their actions to be criminal, they would have to have been undertaken with a knowing lack of authority.

    Further still, however, Ms. Powell didn’t organize or participate in the incident, Mr. Rafferty asserted.

    “There are no communications of any kind between Ms. Powell and any of the alleged coconspirators or unindicted coconspirators that evince any agreement by Ms. Powell to have SullivanStrickler personnel to travel to Coffee County or to contract for their services for Coffee County—much less to do so for any illegal purpose,” he said in a Sept. 28 filing.

    Ms. Powell challenged the election results in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, but she never represented President Trump, he said.

    “It cannot be disputed that Ms. Powell went her own way following the election, and she never reached an agreement on a course of action with any indicted or unindicted coconspirator,” he said.

    She did share evidence used in her lawsuits, all of which failed, with President Trump and his aides, and she advised him on his authorities in case of foreign interference in the election, Mr. Rafferty acknowledged.

    “All those substantive communications, limited as they were, effectively ended by December 19, 2020,” he said.

    He also acknowledged that “Defending the Republic Inc., a non-profit Ms. Powell founded, paid a bill from SullivanStrickler,” but he added that it did so only upon the company’s “threat to post information publicly online after its technicians apparently collected data from Coffee County machines.”

    SullivanStrickler didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    “Ms. Powell did not request that trip; she did not even know of that trip—much less authorize it,” Mr. Rafferty said.

    “Accordingly, she did not agree with anyone to undertake the collection of Coffee County data—even though it was done with permission of Coffee County officials—and the State has no evidence she conspired with anyone to violate any law.”

    Ms. Powell and another defendant, attorney Kenneth Chesebro, asked for a speedy trial, which is scheduled to commence on Oct. 23. Other defendants will be tried separately, though it’s not clear when. Several defendants are also trying to have the case removed to a federal court. In some of the latest developments, lawyers for President Trump informed the court that they will not joint the removal effort.

    President Trump is facing another indictment for his election challenges in a federal court in the District of Columbia. He’s also fighting charges of illegal retention of defense information in Florida and more charges in New York for allegedly fraudulent bookkeeping entries. In a separate civil suit targeting his businesses, a New York judge recently ordered his businesses in the state dissolved.

    President Trump has denounced the legal cases against himself as politically motivated efforts to interfere with his 2024 presidential run.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 19:00

  • Fifth Circuit Court Rules Against Biden's ATF In Ghost Gun Case 
    Fifth Circuit Court Rules Against Biden’s ATF In Ghost Gun Case 

    The Fifth Circuit has partially granted, but essentially denied, the government’s motion to cancel a district court’s injunctions in the Firearms Policy Coalition’s lawsuit (VanDerStok v. Garland) challenging the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ “frame or receiver” rule. The injunctions will now only apply to two plaintiffs in the lawsuit.

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    The case involves so-called “ghost guns,” weapons that are sold in ready-to-assemble kits. President Biden has pushed hard to require background checks and serial numbers for buying sets of gun parts under the pretext that these are ‘readily convertible’ and, therefore, firearms. The ruling today means the plaintiffs, Defense Distributed and Blackhawk Manufacturing Group (incorporated, doing business as 80 Percent Arms), can sell every kind of ghost gun kit to their customers while the courts review ATF’s 98-page rule. 

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    Since the plaintiffs, Distributed and Blackhawk Manufacturing, were the only ones permitted to sell ghost gun kits, this essentially grants them a monopoly on selling the kits nationwide. The government, by implementing this rule, has essentially crushed the industry. But they’ve now inadvertently established a monopoly in the process.

    Defense Distributed founder Cody Wilson explains more on this:

    “These are the kinds of accidents integral to Executive and agency overreach in the federal courts. Should have stayed out of the People’s business. Someone will have to break the bad news to Kamala and her lackeys in the new WH Office of Gun Violence Prevention.” 

    Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t even two weeks into her new role as ‘Gun Czar‘ and has already been delivered a blow as Biden’s war on guns has been squarely pointed at ‘ghost guns.’ 

    Remember this: 

    It’s likely that anti-gunner organizations like Giffords and Everytown and their billionaire backers like Michael Bloomberg will be displeased with Defense Distributed being allowed to sell ghost gun kits again.

    Here is constitutional attorney Mark W. Smith breaking down what happened today: 

    Since this is a ruling in favor of the Second Amendment, we doubt Reuters, Bloomberg, and or any other left-leaning corporate media outlets will be reporting on this. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 18:40

  • Sisi Tells Egyptians 'Hunger A Price Worth Paying For Progress' In Bizarre Speech
    Sisi Tells Egyptians ‘Hunger A Price Worth Paying For Progress’ In Bizarre Speech

    Via Middle East Eye

    In a widely condemned televised speech, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has said his people should accept the prospect of going hungry as the price of the country’s success.

    In the remarks on Saturday, Sisi also called his opponents “liars, saboteurs and wicked”, as critics questioned the billions spent on infrastructure projects that he has undertaken as many Egyptians struggle to make ends meet. 

    AFP: Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at a meeting with the French foreign minister in Cairo on 14 September 2023

    “Don’t you Egyptians dare say you would rather eat than build and progress,” Sisi said. “If the price of the nation’s progress and prosperity is to go hungry and thirsty, then let us not eat or drink,” he added.

    “Don’t undermine the cause of our nation and make us the world’s laughing stock. Stand fast and transform the cruel circumstances we are going through into a gift. The harder you stand fast, the sooner it [the economic crises] will pass.”

    In a meandering and times informal dialogue, the Egyptian president suggested ways in which he could “destroy” Egypt, if he were so inclined, by distributing pills to foster chaos in the country. 

    Sisi said that he spoke with the Supreme Judicial Council regarding how easy the country would be to destroy and had concluded that giving 100,000 people in “difficult circumstances” tramadol, a strong opioid, would do the trick at a cost of no more than $30m. It is unclear why he publicized such remarks but his comments were widely condemned online.

    Ahmed Tantawi, who is positioning himself as Sisi’s main opponent in the country’s upcoming election, condemned the president’s speech in a statement posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. Directly addressing Sisi, he wrote: “Egyptians actually starved during your rule because of your administration. They did not see any of the development that was promised.”

    Tantawi further accused Sisi of spreading lies and accumulating “high-rise buildings, cities and palaces built in deserts, even if it is at the expense of [the ordinary] man and his right to a decent life and education”. “[The government] has stripped citizens of social protection, leaving two-thirds of Egyptians living below and around the poverty line, while the conditions of most of the remaining third has deteriorated dangerously,” he said.

    Other users on the platform said that Sisi represented the “cartoon of a madman” while another social media user said that the president’s comments could technically land him in jail. As Sisi faces a deepening economic crisis, his reaction to criticism has become increasingly erratic. 

    Egypt will hold a presidential election between 10 and 12 December, brought forward from the original date in 2024, with Sisi widely expected to win a third term.

    Looming economic crises

    Analysts have predicted that Egypt is the country second most at risk of a debt crisis, coming just after war-torn Ukraine. 

    Nevertheless, Sisi, who was undaunted about the mounting economic problems, asked the country: “What kind of country do you want to live in? Do you want to build Egypt and make it a nation of note, or not? Do you consider building an adventure? Do you consider reform an adventure?”

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    Egypt has been gripped by an economic crisis for years, a situation exacerbated by the war in Ukraine which has severely affected food prices in the country.

    Official figures showed annual inflation in Egypt reached a new record 39.7 percent in August, while the Egyptian pound has been on a dramatic slide against the dollar. A dollar buys 30 Egyptian pounds today compared to just under 20 exactly a year ago.

    Egypt has been dependent on bailouts from its wealthier allies in the Gulf and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in recent years, as investors pull billions out of the country.

    While the financial crisis has a range of causes, many opposition figures have pointed fingers at the increasing grip the military has held over the economy following the 2013 coup that ousted the elected government of Mohamed Morsi.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 18:20

  • Newsom Fills Feinstein's Empty Senate Seat With Wealthy Black Lesbian From Maryland
    Newsom Fills Feinstein’s Empty Senate Seat With Wealthy Black Lesbian From Maryland

    In 2021, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) vowed to replace any Senate vacancies with a black woman.

    On Sunday, he did just that following the death of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), appointing the first black lesbian to ever openly serve in Congress.

    Laphonza Butler, president of of pro-abortion organization EMILY’s List who served as a senior adviser to Kamala Harris’ very failed 2020 presidential campaign, and currently a resident of Maryland, was announced as Feinstein’s replacement in a Sunday night announcement by Newsom.

    Butler will finish Feinstein’s term, which runs until 2024, after which she may face off with Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), who had been hoping Feinstein would live till the election so he could slide into the Senate.

    “As we mourn the enormous loss of Senator Feinstein, the very freedoms she fought for — reproductive freedom, equal protection, and safety from gun violence — have never been under greater assault,” said Newsom, adding “Laphonza will carry the baton left by Senator Feinstein, continue to break glass ceilings, and fight for all Californians in Washington D.C.”

    Butler was born in Magnolia, Mississippi, where she began her career as a union organizer. In 2009, she moved to California, where she served as president of SEIU United Long Term Care Workers, where she was instrumental in raising minimum wage, and hiking taxes on wealthy Californians. She also served as a University of California regent for three years, until she moved to Maryland in 2001.

    After advising Kamala Harris on her 2020 campaign, Butler left SCRB strategies to become Airbnb’s director of public policy and campaigns in North America. Wile working for Harris, she was hired by Uber during an organized labor dispute – when Harris’s brother-in-law, Tony West, was Uber’s chief legal officer.

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    Many have made light of the fact that Butler doesn’t actually live in California.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 18:15

  • 2-Out-Of-3 Gen Z-ers Still Get Financial Help From Their Parents
    2-Out-Of-3 Gen Z-ers Still Get Financial Help From Their Parents

    A recent poll surveying 1,000 U.S. residents reveals that a sizable number haven’t ventured as far from home as they once imagined they would. Close to one-third remain in the town where they grew up, and astonishingly, 40% of that group still share a roof with their parents.

    And the reason many haven’t left home seems to be clear: nearly 2 in 3 Gen Zers receive financial help from their parents. 29% of Americans still live in their home town, according to a newly released study and data aggregated by AllStar Home. 

    The median distance that U.S. residents reside from their birthplace is a mere 30 miles. Those who haven’t crossed state lines are, on average, just a 47-minute drive away from their original stomping grounds, the study found. 

    The report noted that of the 29% who haven’t left their hometown, 41% intend to stay put indefinitely, while a majority of 52% have plans to relocate within the next half-decade. Interestingly, more women (47%) than men (38%) expressed surprise at still living in their hometown at this point in their lives. The primary factors keeping people close to home include emotional attachment and a sense of comfort, followed by financial constraints, employment opportunities, and a general apprehension about venturing into the unknown.

    The term ‘townie,’ representing individuals who spend their entire lives in their birthplace, is embraced by nearly one in four respondents—24% to be exact. Among these self-identified townies, the majority are unapologetic about their lifestyle choice; a notable 51% claimed to wear the ‘townie’ label with pride.

    The study also found that among those who have stayed in their hometown, 38% have remained in the home where they grew up, and an additional 40% are still living with their parents. The trend is especially pronounced among Gen Z, where an eye-opening 86% who remain in their hometown also live with their parents. This compares with 28% of Millennials. Although 85% of people view it as socially acceptable in 2023 to reside with parents post-education for financial reasons, a third (30%) admit to feeling some level of embarrassment about it.

    In an intriguing twist dubbed the “reverse-boomerang effect,” it’s not just the young staying put; some parents are gravitating toward the places their adult children have moved to. Among those who have left their home state, 20% report that their parents followed suit. For Gen Zers who relocated out of state, this figure jumps to 40%.

     

    The predominant motive for parents’ migration is the desire to be nearer to their offspring. Others cited a fondness for the new state or said that necessity and caregiving responsibilities drove the move. As for financial support, while 19% of respondents have financially assisted their parents this year, parents are more likely to return the favor; nearly one-third (31%) state that they have received financial help from their parents in 2023.

    Half of the respondents identified as male, while 48% were female and a minority of 2% identified as nonbinary. The age spectrum of those surveyed spanned from 18 to 77 years, with the mean age landing at 43. In terms of generational representation, the pool was evenly divided: a quarter each from Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, and Baby Boomers. When it comes to living arrangements, 64% reside in standalone houses, 24% in apartments, 5% in townhomes, 4% in mobile homes, and a mere 3% occupy condominiums. 

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 18:00

  • Unlocking The Psychology Of Bitcoin's Bear Market
    Unlocking The Psychology Of Bitcoin’s Bear Market

    Authored by Kane McGukin via BombThrower.com,

    Bear markets in Bitcoin are brutal… and long. They’ve historically seen prices fall 70-80%+ and last about 1,000 days.

    However, each time (3) the market tends to forget just how bad a Bitcoin bear market is. That’s where we are now.

    You’re hearing calls that this is the worst bear market ever and it’s so much longer than before. It’s not. It’s inline and has similar characteristics to all of the past Bitcoin bears. From a valuation standpoint, Bitcoin was this cheap on a relative basis back in 2011, ‘12, ‘15, ‘16, 2020, and now.

    Bitcoin is in that part of the bear, the last third, where you see everyone’s hands go up. Everyone throwing in the towel, even the most gung ho Bitcoin influencers begin losing their steam and questioning their maximalist stance. It’s not openly said, but you can tell by the posts or lack thereof. However, Bitcoin bears are when Bitcoin is built. So, there is a necessary beauty to this evil pain.

    In general, I get the psychological nature of it. We all do. Because losing’s no fun. Just ask Deion Sanders. He’s a winner first and only likes to win. He’s open about it. Flamboyant about it.

    Here are a couple of noteworthy quotes of his that help us relate.

    Time is a Wonderful Storyteller

    This really fits!! Bitcoin halvings, the epochs, each have its own story and they require time to be told properly. Relatively speaking, a lot of time… Four years worth of time.

    Each is slightly different, but yet is still the same as any other monetary story throughout history.

    All money stories are filled with one key ingredient – man’s battle with the highs and lows tied to greed. Bitcoin’s story just so happens to be telling us how we’re transitioning money from the physical world to a digital one.

    In the worst case, I believe it’s telling us how we’re building a parallel financial network that mimics the one we already know (image below). And at best, it’s telling us how we’ll fix broken money altogether.

    What’s a Bitcoin Halving? How Long Do They Last?

    In each Bitcoin block, the first transaction is a coinbase transaction that holds the block reward and fees for mining the block.

    The block reward, the amount of bitcoin in each block, halves roughly every 210,000 blocks or every 4 years.

    From this, we can make some assumptions related to how bear and bull markets work. Especially with 14 years and 3 halvings under our belt. P.S. the next, the fourth, is estimated to happen in April of 2024.

    Based on the data above and with a representative history of past Bitcoin bear and bull markets, we can make a fair number of assumptions and estimates about the life of a Bitcoin bear market.

    Additionally, we can add traditional charting techniques to further verify, support, or deny these assumptions. It’s just another tool in the belt.

    Putting it All Together

    • A full halving: 4 years or 210,000 blocks

    • bitcoin bulls (to high date): historically last 1/3 of a halving or an average of 73,832 blocks.

    • bitcoin bears (to next breakout, not low): historically lasts 2/3’s of the time or an average of 136,168 blocks.

    • On average, the bears have lasted roughly 979 days. That’s from the high day to the next breakout day. This is where the charts come into play.

    • If past patterns hold true, then we can expect this bear to last another roughly 300 days (almost a year) taking us to July 2024 or so (discussed a little more in the podcast above).

    • If this bear is like 2013 it last until around May 2024, just after the halving. If it’s like 2017, it could be September 2024.

    Either way, we don’t have to be 100% right. We just need to listen to what the markets are telling us, what the fundamentals are saying, and have a general understanding of how history has played out. That’s the goal.

    Will market action repeat, who knows? Will Bitcoin moon to an all-time new high? I don’t know that either. But, I do have enough information to see that Bitcoin is here to stay. The monetary rails we are comfortable using are being rebuilt to include this asset in one way or another.

    The fundamental signs are there and growing. Like the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s recent announcement in favor of accounting rules that pave the way for companies to hold Bitcoin on the balance sheet.

    Moves like this, along with a number of other fundamental cookie crumbs, don’t happen unless the table is being set for big boys, big banks, big funds, and big corporations to come to market.

    Let’s see how the next bull plays out… When it finally gets here 😉

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 17:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Oct 02

Today’s News 2nd October 2023

  • Excess Deaths From Cardiovascular Diseases Up 44% Last Year Among UK Citizens Aged 15-44: Report
    Excess Deaths From Cardiovascular Diseases Up 44% Last Year Among UK Citizens Aged 15-44: Report

    A new and disturbing analysis reveals that excess deaths from cardiovascular diseases have jumped in the UK over the past several years.

    Using official government data for deaths in England and Wales between 2010 and 2022, former BlackRock portfolio manager Ed Dowd and his partners at Phinance Technologies found that excess death rates from cardiovascular diseases were up 13% in 2020, 30% in 2021, and 44% in 2022, which “point to a worrying picture of an even greater acceleration in coming years of deaths & disabilities.”

    What’s more, they found that “deaths per year from cardiovascular diseases had been trending lower from 2010 to
    2019, with a significant downward slope,” until 2020, when the trend reversed. They also found that in 2022, men began outpacing women in cardiovascular diseases.

    The analysis also found that disabilities are skyrocketing.

    Dowd and co. conclude that: “When looking at excess deaths for cardiovascular diseases, the Z-score in 2020 was around 3, indicating that prior to the start of the vaccinations there was already a signal pointing to an increase in cardiovascular deaths. That trend however accelerated substantially in 2021 and 2022 where we observe Z-scores of around 7.5 and 10.5, respectively. These are extreme events that we believe need a thorough investigation.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 02:45

  • German Mayor Call Concerns Over Child Safety "Unfounded" Amid Plans To Accomodate 80 Asylum-Seekers At A Primary School
    German Mayor Call Concerns Over Child Safety “Unfounded” Amid Plans To Accomodate 80 Asylum-Seekers At A Primary School

    Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

    Outraged parents have condemned the local mayor’s decision to accommodate up to 80 asylum seekers in containers on the grounds of a primary school in the German town of Monheim am Rhein.

    Dozens of local residents attended a recent question time of the local council to voice their displeasure over the controversial move proposed by Mayor Daniel Zimmerman’s administration and expressed their concerns for child safety, calling the plans both inappropriate and unacceptable.

    Starting next spring, a cohort of migrants will reside in containers located on the school grounds, which are no longer used for educational purposes.

    In response to the protestations of locals, the council cited economic factors as a primary reason for the move, insisting that the estimated €150,000 it would cost to convert the containers into housing was substantially lower than the cost of renting private accommodations, where around 80 percent of the migrants recently received by the municipality currently reside.

    “We simply can’t keep up with renting anymore,” a city press spokesperson told parents at the meeting.

    Concerned parents told the council meeting that the housing of traumatized refugees in the vicinity of young children was wholly irresponsible, and expressed worries of potential conflict between the new arrivals and their children including the danger of rape or abuse.

    However, Zimmerman called these fears “unfounded” and insisted that the migrants are “people like you and me” and are not dangerous.

    “The safety of our children is the primary goal – I personally guarantee that,” the local mayor assured parents.

    He explained that with the municipality receiving significantly more refugees from Ukraine, Syria, and Afghanistan, private accommodation in Monheim has become saturated and the town is reaching its acceptance limits.

    The council therefore needs to resort to alternative measures to accommodate further arrivals.

    The mayor added that while he was open to discussing the matter further with concerned parents in the next few weeks, for instance at parent meetings, such correspondence will not change the city’s decision to repurpose the containers on the school grounds and considered the matter to be closed.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/02/2023 – 02:00

  • The Mad Propaganda Push To Normalize War-Profiteering In Ukraine
    The Mad Propaganda Push To Normalize War-Profiteering In Ukraine

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    There’s been an astonishingly brazen propaganda push to normalize war profiteering in Ukraine as Kyiv coordinates with the arms industry and western governments to convert the war-ravaged nation into a major domestic weapons manufacturer, thereby turning Ukrainians into proxies of the military industrial complex as well as the Pentagon.

    At an event in Kyiv which hosted 250 “defense” industry corporations from 30 different countries on Friday, President Zelensky gave a speech urging war profiteers to open factories in Ukraine to cut out the middleman of securing and delivering so many weapons from abroad. This is an investment that the arms industry would ostensibly have plenty of time to set up, given that western officials are now going out of their way to communicate to the public that this war will stretch on for many more years to come.

    Zelensky’s speech twice made use of the phrase “defense-industrial complex”, and used the phrase “arsenal of the free world” no fewer than three times.

    “Ukraine is developing a special economic regime for the defense-industrial complex,” Zelensky said. “To give all the opportunities to realize their potential to every company that works for the sake of defense — in Ukraine and with Ukraine or that wants to come to Ukraine.”

    “Right now, the most powerful military-industrial complexes are being determined, as are their priorities and the global standard of defense. All of this is being determined in Ukraine,” Zelensky tweeted with photos from the event.

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    This move has been accompanied in recent weeks by some of the most appalling mass media headlines that I have ever seen, all geared toward normalizing the military industrial complex in the eyes of the public.

    In an amazingly awful Wall Street Journal op-ed titled titled “In Defense of the Defense Industry” and subtitled “Populists of the right and left attack U.S. companies that make weapons. Who do they think protects us?”, Future of Capitalism’s Ira Stoll argues that the military industrial complex is actually a wonderful thing we should all love and support.

    “The weapons industry protects America and its allies, keeping us safe from ruthless enemies who would otherwise exterminate or enslave us,” Stoll writes. “Raytheon helps make weapons systems that defend Israeli civilians against attacks from Iran-backed terrorist groups. These include the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, SkyHunter interceptor systems and Tamir missiles. Raytheon also produces the Javelin antitank missile that Ukraine has used against Russian armor and the early-warning radars that would detect incoming missiles aimed at the U.S.”

    Stoll does not name the alternate universe he is describing in which the US military is used to keep Americans safe rather than to advance imperial interests abroad.

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    Another recent Wall Street Journal article titled “The War in Ukraine Is Also a Giant Arms Fair” and subtitled “Arms makers are getting orders for weapons being put to the test on the battlefield” glorifies the way war machinery is being field tested on human bodies to the benefit of war profiteers.

    “The Panzerhaubitze howitzer is part of an arsenal of weapons being put to the test in Ukraine in what has become the world’s largest arms fair,” writes WSJ’s Alistair MacDonald. “Companies that make the weapons being used in Ukraine have won orders and resurrected production lines. The deployment of billions of dollars worth of equipment in a major land war has also given manufacturers and militaries a unique opportunity to analyze the battlefield performance of weapons, and learn how best to use them.”

    A Reuters article from two weeks ago titled “At London arms fair, global war fears are good for business” gushes over how much money is being raked in by arms manufacturers as a result of this war, with one unnamed arms industry executive telling Reuters, “War is good for business.”

    Just the other day CNN anchor Erin Burnett followed up some clips of “far right lawmakers” voicing their opposition to funding for the Ukraine proxy war by pausing to explain to her audience that this funding is actually good for Americans, because it goes straight into the US arms industry.

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    “It’s worthwhile with all of this gaining some steam in public perception to be clear on some facts,” Burnett said. “First and foremost, the vast majority of this money is going to American companies and jobs, right, because those are the people that are making the Abrams tanks, the ammo and everything else. And you take Lockheed Martin, which makes the HIMARS, that have been core to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the company announced it’s going to increase its workforce in Camden, Arkansas, by 20 percent, just because of this new demand.”

    “That money is going to America,” Burnett added.

    All this propaganda energy is going into normalizing the act of war profiteering because if you let the idea stand on its own, it would make people scream in horror. The fact that a deliberately-provoked war is being used as a giant field demo to show prospective buyers and investors how effective various weapons systems can be at ripping apart human bodies in order to profit from all this death and destruction is more nightmarish than anything any dystopian novelist has ever come up with.

    Ukraine is a giant advertisement for weapons of mass slaughter, and the cost of that corporate ad is not money but human blood. If you look right at this thing it absolutely chills you to the bone. Which is why so much effort is being poured into making sure people don’t look at it.

    *  *  *

    My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece here are some options where you can toss some money into my tip jar if you want to. Go here to buy paperback editions of my writings from month to month. All my work is free to bootleg and use in any way, shape or form; republish it, translate it, use it on merchandise; whatever you want. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. All works co-authored with my husband Tim Foley.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 23:30

  • Charting The Depths: The World Of Subsea Cables
    Charting The Depths: The World Of Subsea Cables

    Data may be stored in the “cloud,” but when it comes to sending and receiving data, a lot of that action is actually happening along the depths of the ocean floor.

    Hidden beneath the waves, these subsea cables account for approximately 95% of international data transmission.

    As Visual Capitalists’ Bruno Venditti details below, these maps, by Adam Symington, use information from TeleGeography to show the distribution of subsea cables around the planet.

    Wired for Connectivity

    It’s estimated that there are nearly 1.4 million kilometers (0.9 million miles) of submarine cables in service globally. They ensure emails, content, and calls find their way, linking colossal data centers and facilitating worldwide communication.

    Currently, there are 552 active and planned submarine cables:

    Submarine cables harness fiber-optic technology, transmitting information via rapid light pulses through glass fibers. These fibers, thinner than human hair, are protected by plastic or even steel wire layers.

    Cables usually have the diameter of a garden hose, but often with added armor near the shore. Coastal cables are buried under the seabed, hidden from view on the beach, while deep-sea ones rest on the ocean floor.

    Length varies widely, from the 131-kilometer CeltixConnect cable, connecting Dublin, Ireland, and Holyhead, UK, to the sprawling 20,000-kilometer Asia America Gateway cable, connecting San Luis Obispo, California, to Hawaii and Southeast Asia:

    Asia America Gateway. Image: TeleGeography

    With the current technology, cables are designed to last 25 years at least but are often replaced because of damage. Nearly two-thirds of cable damage is caused by fishing vessels and ships dragging anchors.

    The Bottom Line

    Traditionally dominated by telecom carriers, the makeup of the subsea cable market has shifted over more recent decades. Tech giants like Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon now heavily invest in new cables.

    With data demand surging, at least $10 billion is expected to be invested in subsea cables worldwide between 2022 and 2024, driven by cloud service providers and content streaming platforms.

    Even with the growth of satellites in telecom, cables still can carry far more data at a much lower cost than satellites. In fact, according to TeleGeography, satellites account for less than 1% of all U.S. international capacity.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 23:00

  • Why Did People Comply?
    Why Did People Comply?

    Authored by Maximilien Lacour via The Brownstone Institute,

    On Monday 16th of March 2020, when Boris Johnson first proclaimed, “You must stay home,” I very meekly said “OK!” And the chances are that you did too. 

    Polling from the time shows that self-reported compliance with the stay-at-home orders was high – a finding broadly corroborated by mobility data, which has the marked advantage of not depending on respondents’ honesty about following the law (Ganslmeier et al. 2022; Jackson and Bradford 2021). 

    In itself, however, this data alone does not tell us why an unprecedented suspension of our civil liberties enjoyed such high levels of compliance.

    There are, however, surveys that do provide some insight (see, for example, Jackson and Bradford 2021; Foad et al. 2021; and Halliday et al. 2022) and amongst their more surprising findings is that instrumental considerations – that is, personal fear of the virus or of coercion by the State – may have been relatively unimportant in driving compliance with the lockdown rules. Instead, they found that, in general, people followed the rules because (1) they were the law and (2) because they provided us with a shared understanding of what was good and right to do, which many of us seem to have internalised (Jackson and Bradford 2021).

    The first of these is not particularly surprising. The law enjoys a ‘reservoir of loyalty’ amongst Brits who are therefore already predisposed to respect its edicts just because they have been made law (Halliday et al. 2022, p.400). 

    This, however, does not explain the second driver of compliance. That is, it does not explain why we bought into lockdown laws and willingly accepted them as the basis of our public morality – to the point that we even often justified our non-compliant behaviours as nonetheless remaining within the ‘spirit of the law’ (Meers et al. 2021). It does not explain why we looked upon the sanitised, terrorised redrawing of society and saw that it was good. It is worth briefly revisiting, with the benefit of cooled heads and hindsight, what exactly this looked like. 

    Over the course of a week or so, our lives and concerns were dyed a COVID monochrome and narrowed down around a single, shared priority – slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus, or, in the stock phrases of the time, “flattening the curve” and “bringing R below 1.” And, to achieve this, we were asked to abandon almost every single activity that make up our shared lives and distinguish us from battery-farmed animals, including but not limited to, seeing friends, going to school, shopping, going to the theatre, playing team sports, meeting for romance or sex, and just hanging about (Wagner 2022, p.61). 

    In a way, it also radically simplified our lives. 

    Under the radical, bewildering uncertainty of early 2020, the lockdown rules saved us from having to negotiate the perils and ambiguities of being mortal amongst mortals in time of plague, by telling us what we needed to do in most cases. Want to see Grandma? Simple! You can’t. Want to go shopping? Essentials only and follow taped lines across the floor! Want to continue an affair with the milkman or just see your girlfriend? Well, again, you can’t – and pray that you don’t live in Leicester. 

    Borrowing a term from moral philosophy, the lockdowns introduced a decidability (or, at least, the illusion of it) into our lives that would otherwise have been absent (Taylor 1997). Under its sway, we no longer had to engage with our lives as moral agents tasked with making imperfect judgements about what is right or wrong, as we could assume that those judgments had already been made by a higher authority and were reflected in its rules. Life under lockdown settled all philosophical difficulties and faced with a course of action, one wasn’t to ask, “Is this the right?” but “Does this Flatten The Curve?” 

    This decidability may go some way to explaining why we internalised the lockdown worldview so easily. In his 2005 essay, “Afraid to be Free: Dependency as Desideratum,” James Buchanan identified a widely shared set of expectations that he termed ‘Parental Socialism’ and described as: 

    … paternalism flipped over, so to speak. With paternalism we refer to the attitudes of elitists who seek to impose their own preferred values on others. With parentalism, in contrast, we refer to the attitudes of persons who seek to have values imposed upon them by other persons, by the state or by transcendental forces. (Buchanan 2005)

    Buchanan very loosely defines socialism as the range of political projects that seek to impose some kind of collectivized control over the individual’s liberty of actions and provides a list of its possible sources, which includes parental socialism. Unlike the other sources identified by Buchanan, however (which have to do with the structure and powers of the State), parental socialism concerns the expectations that citizens have of said State. Freedom and agency, observes Buchanan, come with responsibility.

    A free agent is forced to struggle with the complexities and ambiguities of his life and to come to a judgement about what matters – and bears responsibility for both struggle and judgement. This, observes Buchanan, is a heavy burden that many people are simply too afraid to shoulder. Instead, they (i.e. parental socialists or, more simply, us!) demand that the State be an engine of order and certainty in their worlds, much like a parent is in their child’s, and that it make and impose these judgments upon them. Parental socialists want to be told what matters by the State, told what is safe and right and what is risky and wrong, not given the freedom to deliberate themselves. 

    This amounts to demanding the sort of decidability provided by stay-at-home orders and, of course, means compromising on some of one’s freedoms. If Buchanan’s diagnosis is correct, we may have accepted the lockdowns because they fit with a long-standing pattern of expectation that we have of the State. Though the pandemic-management policies themselves were unprecedented and shocking, the role they gave to the State in our lives was not entirely, and thus may help explain why we accepted them so readily. 

    Now, this sits at odds with much of what is written by critics of lockdowns. For many of these (otherwise often insightful) writers, the lockdowns were an essentially top-down phenomenon, primarily driven and maintained by the machinations of politicians, scientific advisors, or some more obscure elite group. Explanations of this sort range from the conventional, like Laurent Mucchielli’s analysis of the French government’s centralising predisposition and the perverse incentives shaping WHO recommendations to the more unorthodox, like Michael P. Senger’s argument that Xi Jinping deliberately shut down the world on the pretext of a benign virus (Mucchielli 2022; Senger 2021). 

    However, if what I wrote above is correct, then, while these theories are not necessarily incorrect per se (well, Mucchielli’s isn’t), they are necessarily limited by their failure to consider the role of bottom-up forces like parental socialism in driving compliance with the lockdowns. They do not do justice to the way that lockdowns were both continuous with and made possible by a set of long-standing, popular expectations that we have of the State.

    This omission risks having deleterious consequences for the project of lockdown critique, assuming that its goals include preventing any future lockdowns. If lockdowns were made possible by popular parentalistic expectations, then legal reform, though obviously welcome, may prove insufficient and powerless against the very real threat of ‘voluntary’ lockdowns, whereby a population complies with a stay-at-home request without needing it to be made a legal requirement. 

    Consider the comments made by David Halpern, a prominent behavioural scientist and Chief Executive of the UK government’s notorious ‘Nudge’ unit, and reported in the Telegraph:

    Britain has been drilled to comply with lockdown under a future pandemic, the chief executive of the ‘nudge unit’ has said.

    Professor David Halpern told the Telegraph that the country had “practised the drill” of wearing face masks and working from home and “could redo it” in a future crisis.

    Speaking on the Lockdown Files podcast, the government adviser Prof Halpern predicted that the country would comply with another ‘stay at home’ order because they “kind of know what the drill is.”

    In an interview given before Mr Hancock’s testimony, the leading behavioural scientist even suggested that the nation’s prior experience made it “much easier to now imagine” the population would accept future local restrictions.

    Having been trained up by a first round of stay-at-home orders, our previously abstract paternalistic expectations of the State have been given a new form: in times of plague, lock down! Though Halpern does not say this explicitly (he still refers to a stay-at-home ‘order’), his remarks nonetheless suggest that future lockdowns may not even need to be legally mandated – we will just know what to do when recommended to by the State or Public Health. 

    The threat of voluntary lockdowns should lead lockdown sceptics to cast their net beyond the institutions of the State and bring them to confront the harder-to-limn, bottom-up drivers of lockdown like parental socialism. They need to find ways of addressing our collective self-infantilisation and to reemphasize the value and importance of free agency. 

    This does not mean rejecting any role for the State in our lives or condemning any socialist scheme (Buchanan himself is quite clear that his critical project remains compatible with aspects of social democracy such as redistribution through taxation). But it does mean trying to foster and perpetuate a popular scepticism of the State in its didactic and moralising functions. Critics of lockdown need to go beyond criticising the public institutions and individuals who designed COVID-19 policy, and to start attacking the popular mindset that made them thinkable and practicable in the first place. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 22:30

  • Putin Is Now Evading Western Sanctions On Almost All Oil Exports, And Using Yuan To Avoid Import Sanctions
    Putin Is Now Evading Western Sanctions On Almost All Oil Exports, And Using Yuan To Avoid Import Sanctions

    When western nations rolled out a grand plan to throttle Russian oil imports and impose sanctions on Kremlin energy exports, we – and many others – laughed: after all, we have repeatedly seen how toothless western sanctions are when seeking to contain “rogue regime” oil profits, from Iran (which is pretty much selling oil to China at max capacity) to Venezuela and onward. One year later, our laughter has been well justified, because as the FT reports, “Russia has succeeded in avoiding G7 sanctions on most of its oil exports”, a shift in trade flows that will boost the Kremlin’s revenues as crude rises towards $100 a barrel, and as Russian Urals prices hit $80, the highest level in over a year.

    According to the report, almost 75% of all seaborne Russian crude flows traveled without western insurance in August, the only lever used to enforce the G7’s $60-a-barrel oil price cap, according to an analysis of shipping and insurance records by the Financial Times. That is up from about about half this spring, according to data from freight analytics company Kpler and insurance companies. The rise implies that Moscow is becoming more adept at circumventing the cap, allowing it to sell more of its oil at prices closer to international market rates.

    More importantly, it means that few if any Russian clients are worried about retaliation by the Biden regime for purchasing Russian oil.

    The FT reports that the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) has estimated that the steady increase in crude prices since July, combined with Russia’s success in reducing the discount on its own oil, means that the country’s oil revenues are likely to be at least $15bn higher for 2023 than they would have been; it is also an indication that for all its talk and posturing the West is content with allowing Putin’s regime to benefit from surging oil prices as the far more draconian alternative of taking all Russian oil off the market, would have sent global oil prices much higher.

    Indeed, as the FT admits, while the EU and US have largely barred imports of Russian oil, the G7 price cap was designed to keep Russian oil flowing into global markets: “The aim was to prevent a squeeze on supplies and an economically and politically damaging jump in prices.”

    Providing western services such as shipping or insurance is allowed under the price cap as long as Russia’s oil is sold for less than $60 a barrel. Russian oil is now selling for $20 more.

    The shift is a double blow for western efforts to restrict Russia’s revenues from oil sales — which make up the biggest part of the Kremlin’s budget — following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    Not only is a higher proportion of Russian oil being sold outside the cap, but Moscow’s increasing independence as a seller has coincided with a strong rally in oil prices, which topped $95 a barrel for the first time in 13 months this week.

    Worst of all for Western neocons, while Russia’s oil sector is still facing several challenges, including claims of shortages in its domestic refined fuels market and a dip in export volumes overall, the figures still suggest more oil revenues will be flowing into the Kremlin’s war chest.

    Ben Hilgenstock, an economist at the KSE, said: “Given these shifts in how Russia ships its oil, it may be very difficult to meaningfully enforce the price cap in future. And that makes it even more regrettable that we did not do more to properly enforce it when we had more leverage.”

    Meanwhile, in further weaponization of its commodities (in response to the US weaponization of the US Dollar), Russia this week banned the export of diesel and other fuels, a significant move from one of the biggest global sellers of diesel. The move has raised fears that Russian president Vladimir Putin is trying to disrupt the oil market as he did with natural gas, sparking last year’s energy crisis.

    And while the Kremlin is steamrolling western export sanctions, it is Beijing that is allowing Russia to evade import sanctions.

    A new study has found that Russia is using Chinese currency for at least a fifth of its imports, illustrating both Moscow’s increasing reliance on Beijing and its efforts to evade western sanctions.

    As a reminder, sanctions imposed on Moscow by the EU, US and others as a result of its war against Ukraine have made it increasingly difficult for Russia to get hold of large amounts of western imports. It’s also made it more expensive for it to trade using the dollar, euro or other western currencies, especially after Russia was effectively kicked out of SWIFT and its banks can no longer transact in dollars.

    What happened then? Well, by the end of 2022, 20% of Russia’s imports were invoiced in yuan — up from 3% a year previously, according to a research paper published this morning by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the FT reported.

    While some of that increase is owing to increased imports from China itself, the use of yuan to settle imports from third countries rose to 5% from just 1% before the war was launched in February 2022.

    “Yuan is being used as a vehicle currency,” said Beata Javorcik, the EBRD’s chief economist and one of the paper’s authors. “Russia is now the third-largest clearing centre for offshore yuan transactions.”

    Asking trade partners to invoice them in yuan is just one way Moscow is evading sanctions, alongside tactics such as importing products through middleman countries or exporting its oil on tankers that sail without western insurance.

    The EBRD paper makes stark just how much Moscow is avoiding western banks when trying to bypass sanctions: when it comes to sanctioned goods and dual-use equipment, which can be used by civilians but also to make weapons, “the increase in [yuan] invoicing was more pronounced,” the paper found. The research also strikes a warning for any western policymakers who might see the data as a sign that their measures are working.

    “Rising geopolitical tensions in general, and the use of trade sanctions in particular, may reduce the attractiveness of the use of the US dollar as a vehicle currency in international trade,” they write. “This, in turn, might lead to a greater fragmentation of global payment systems.”

    Yet despite all the signs, in a few years there will still be those who are stunned to learn that the dollar is no longer the world’s reserve currency.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 22:00

  • China Investors Say Worst Yet To Come For Property
    China Investors Say Worst Yet To Come For Property

    By John Liu and April Ma, Bloomberg Markets Live reporters and strategists

    China’s property sector has yet to see the worst of the crisis that has cast a pall over the nation’s economy and helped drive an exodus of global funds from the world’s second-largest stock market.

    That’s the view from nine of 15 respondents in an informal Bloomberg News survey of analysts and money managers based in Hong Kong and mainland China. Six of them listed housing woes as the biggest risk for equities for the final quarter of 2023, followed by geopolitical tensions.

    The results are a reflection of the worsening malaise in China’s real estate industry, as policymakers appear reluctant to undertake more aggressive stimulus measures lest they may fuel long-term financial risks. Sentiment worsened last week as worries about liquidity and weak housing demand intensified, sending a Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of property stocks to its lowest level in 12 years.

    Pessimism over the property sector aside, the informal survey showed investors have otherwise turned optimistic on the overall market given a series of recent policy support measures and inexpensive valuations. Roughly around 70% of the respondents said they plan to add stock positions both onshore and in Hong Kong.

    “We are in the worst of this cycle and we are not out of woods yet. It’s going to take a long time for the current property crisis to be over,” said Kenny Wen,  head of investment strategy at KGI Asia Ltd. who participated in the informal poll. “Before the property crisis is properly handled, it’s unlikely for the stock market sentiment to recover meaningfully.”

    Investors may be staring at an added level of uncertainty after China Evergrande Group — an indebted real estate conglomerate which sits at the center of the sector’s years-long crisis — said Thursday that its billionaire chairman Hui Ka Yan is suspected of committing crimes. Meantime, Country Garden Holdings Co., formerly China’s biggest developer, continues to fight an uphill battle to avert a public bond default.

    The CSI 300 Index benchmark is down 4.7% so far in 2023, on track for an unprecedented third straight year of losses. That’s dragged the gauge’s valuation to 10.8 times its estimated earnings for the next 12 months, almost two points below the five-year average.

    The CSI 300 is expected to end the year at 4,100, based on the median forecast of the informal poll, implying a potential gain of about 11% from the latest close. The Hang Seng Index is projected to hit 20,500, indicating upside of around 15%, the results showed.

    More than half of the informal survey’s respondents said they see equities as the best investment option at the moment, versus cash or commodities. Nine out of the 15 polled also ruled out the need for state-backed funds to support the market in the fourth quarter.

    Overseas investors sold about 37 billion yuan ($5.1 billion) of mainland China stocks on a net basis in September via trading links with Hong Kong. That’s after a record 90 billion yuan selloff last month, which drove their positioning to the lowest since October 2022, when the nation’s reopening from stringent Covid curbs sparked a sharp rebound over the next three months.

    The continued selling by foreign funds has driven bets that the worst of outflows may be over. Less than a third of those surveyed expected fund flows via the so-called Stock Connect program to turn negative on a net basis for the year.
    “Yuan assets, especially A shares, are currently very cheap and many pockets of the market are oversold,” said Zhu Houzhong, a fund manager at Shanghai Youpu Investment Co. who took part in the informal poll.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 21:30

  • Federal Prosecutors Push For Gag Order Against Trump After His Recent Remarks
    Federal Prosecutors Push For Gag Order Against Trump After His Recent Remarks

    Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Federal prosecutors have urged the federal judge to impose a gag order on former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election interference case, citing the “prejudicial extrajudicial statements” he made on social media.

    Former President Donald Trump appears in court at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York on April 4, 2023. (Steven Hirsch/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

    The special counsel team filed the request for a gag order against Mr. Trump on Sept. 15 to restrict him from making “intimidating” comments about witnesses, lawyers, and other people involved in the criminal case.

    Prosecutors said on Sept. 25 that Mr. Trump continued to wage “a sustained campaign of prejudicial public statements regarding witnesses, the court, the district, and prosecutors” even after the proposed order.

    “The defendant should not be permitted to obtain the benefits of his incendiary public statements and then avoid accountability by having others—whose messages he knows will receive markedly less attention than his own—feign retraction,” they said in a court filing (pdf).

    “No other criminal defendant would be permitted to issue public statements insinuating that a known witness in his case should be executed; this defendant should not be, either,” it added.

    They referred to recent posts on his social media platform, Truth Social, including one on Sept. 22 in which Mr. Trump accused departing Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley of committing treason.

    In the post, Mr. Trump said that Mr. Milley’s alleged “treasonous act” could have led to “a war between China and the United States.” He also suggested that Mr. Milley should be executed for his alleged conduct.

    Prosecutors also mentioned a video posted by Mr. Trump’s spokesman claiming that Mr. Trump had bought a Glock gun in South Carolina. The post was later removed, and the spokesman retracted his remarks, saying that Mr. Trump had only indicated his interest in buying the gun.

    Despite the spokesman’s retraction, prosecutors said that Mr. Trump “re-posted a video of the incident” posted by one of his followers with a caption that suggested he had indeed bought the weapon.

    “The defendant either purchased a gun in violation of the law and his conditions of release, or seeks to benefit from his supporters’ mistaken belief that he did so,” the prosecutors stated.

    Mr. Trump’s lawyers have objected to the request, and U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan on Friday set courtroom arguments for Oct. 16.

    Prosecutors Try to Silence Trump With Gag Order

    Mr. Trump’s lawyers have previously denounced the gag order request as an attempt to “unconstitutionally silence” his political speech. They called the request a “desperate attempt at censorship.”

    “The prosecution would silence President Trump, amid a political campaign where his right to criticize the government is at its zenith, all to avoid a public rebuke of this prosecution,” his lawyers wrote (pdf) on Sept. 25.

    “However, above all else, the First Amendment means that government has no power to restrict expression because of its message, its ideas, its subject matter, or its content.

    “The prosecution may not like President’s Trump’s entirely valid criticisms, but neither it nor this Court are the filter for what the public may hear,” they added.

    Mr. Trump’s lawyers argued that the proposed gag order was “sweepingly broad” and that “many of its terms are undefined.”

    If the order is granted, Mr. Trump would be forced to dramatically limit the type of comments he makes about the case even as he seeks to turn his criminal woes — the Washington prosecution is one of four that he currently faces — to his political advantage while running to reclaim the White House in 2024.

    His attorneys filed court papers on Sept. 27 saying that more time is required to deal with procedures for reviewing classified information in the federal case in which the former president is accused of trying to overturn the 2020 election.

    Jack Phillips and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 21:00

  • Morgan Stanley Warns Of A "Chilly Season for Travel" As Middle-Class Consumers Falter
    Morgan Stanley Warns Of A “Chilly Season for Travel” As Middle-Class Consumers Falter

    Morgan Stanley US equity strategist Michelle Weaver joins a growing number of Wall Street analysts warning about deteriorating conditions for consumers. Weaver wrote in a recent note to clients that travel companies exposed to “lower-income consumers” are beginning to experience “demand weakness.” 

    Weaver’s note, published on Sept. 21, follows JPMorgan consumer trader Brian Heavey’s truth bomb on Sept. 20 when he turned extraordinarily negative on the US consumer. Since then, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, penned a note about the ‘consumer falling off a cliff.’ 

    “A significant proportion of US Consumers have drawn down their Covid era excess savings and our US Economics team estimates that lower-income households have fully exhausted their excess savings, while middle- and higher-income households are less willing to spend their excess savings on consumption,” Weaver told clients. 

    Her note was published after the Fed’s latest beige book that warned: “Some Districts highlighted reports suggesting consumers may have exhausted their savings and are relying more on borrowing to support spending.” And a period when credit card growth wanes, and the consumer has never been in worse shape. 

    Also, the three-year pause in student loan payments has expired, as some 28 million borrowers are imminently facing a restart in payments. This will add a $15.8 billion monthly headwind – or $190 billion per year – to US consumer spending. 

    Understanding all of this, Weaver’s view is that some of the first impacts of a slowdown will be “travel companies exposed to the lower-income consumer showing indications of demand weakness.” 

    Here’s more from the note:

    • Low-Cost Airlines Slowing. A number of major airlines attended Morgan Stanley’s Industrials Conference last week and there was a marked difference in tone between the Ultra Low Cost Carriers (ULCCs) and Legacy Airlines. Two high-utilization ULCCs noted that demand has taken a significant, sharp turn down and these companies now expect pre-tax margins to be significantly lower. These companies may have higher exposure to low-income consumers (though we note that some other ULCC carriers with potential exposure to low-income consumers said that demand was trending in line with expectations). Meanwhile, the legacy carriers were much more positive on the demand environment and their primary concern remains higher fuel costs.

    • Hotels Are Showing Signs of Demand Weakening.TheGaming&Lodging industry has also been cooling especially in the economy segment of the market. Overall revenue per available room (RevPAR) for US hotels has been tracking at a lower trajectory for 3Q vs 2Q and hotel occupancy is down vs 2019. Economy RevPAR has been consistently down 3-4% yoy since April. While on the high-end, luxury RevPAR was down 4% in April, then flat to -2% through summer and down -3% MTD for September. Economy and luxury hotel demand is driven by leisure, consumer travel rather than business travel. There has also been weakness in the regional casino space over the past 6 months, which is primarily exposed to lower- and middle- income consumers.

    • Consumers Intend to Shift to Cheaper Modes of Travel. Our most recent AlphaWise Consumer Survey shows that consumers want to keep traveling and 58% of respondents are planning to travel over the next 6 months. Net spending plans for international travel declined from 0% last month to -8% this month, while domestic travel plans without a flight moved higher. This indicates that consumers want to keep traveling but are increasingly looking at taking cheaper trips and are choosing destinations they can drive or take a train to vs having to fly.

    She added:

    Travel has shown signs of cooling, led by areas exposed to low-income consumers. This problem could broaden out crimping company margins and earnings. We believe there could be more downside ahead and are underweight the Consumer Discretionary sector.

    None of this is a surprise, as we’ve already reported in July, “Airline Stocks Hit Turbulence After Alaska Air Signals Slowing Demand,” and last month, “American Airlines Cuts Earnings Forecast As Headwinds Hit Airline Industry.” In mid-July, we said, “Cash-Strapped Consumers Travel By Bus To Destination Hotspots.” 

    Still no recovery in airline stocks. 

    Meanwhile, last week, Personal Consumption data in the latest GDP revision collapsed in a stunning 9-sigma miss to expectations. 

    … and there goes the “strong” Bidenomics economy as “strong” data points only last about a month and then are downgraded. 

    Beware of a faltering consumer. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 20:25

  • For Some, Open Border Chaos Is The Goal
    For Some, Open Border Chaos Is The Goal

    Authored by Pete McGinnis via RealClearPolitics.com,

    Beware, the crisis at the southern border may be much worse than it appears…

    Free Apple watches, bus and plane tickets all across the continental United States, and sophisticated lawyers standing by to counsel migrants on how to best navigate border officials’ scrutiny of asylum on the occasions when they are actually required to defend their asylum claims. These benefits being offered to illegal border crossers have left the public shocked, angry, and in many cases, feeling the issue closer to home than ever before. Many cities and states have also been overwhelmed as the consequences of the crisis have migrated well beyond the southern border states. Recently, New York City Mayor Eric Adams made news when he emphatically declared that the now-regular stream of migrants into the Big Apple “will ruin the City!”

    It’s not just local budgets and social services that are being squeezed to the breaking point, although those are nothing to sneeze at and will have to be addressed. The increase in crime may be the biggest concern. Violent crime rates are up, and violent incidents are prominent on the nightly news. Less visible are the other criminal enterprises causing ripple effects. Human trafficking has gained more attention as its shocking reality is (very) slowly exposed. The recently released independent film, “The Sound of Freedom,” struck a chord for this very reason – human trafficking is striking too close to home for most Americans’ peace of mind. 

    Then there are the drugs. The opioid epidemic has gotten substantially worse in the last few years, with annual overdose deaths, after a slight decline from 2017 through 2019, increasing dramatically in the last several years. As if this isn’t bad enough, the opportunities for smuggling in other illegal contraband have increased as well.

    Experts speculate that the drug cartels have collaborated with hostile actors, including Chinese Communists, to further take advantage of what they (rightly) view as a U.S. government intent on not enforcing the laws at our southern border. Notably, illicit tobacco and vaping products appear to have become a prime fundraising target for the burgeoning Chinese drug cartel alliance. While teenage vaping and flavored tobacco products have become a major concern for federal regulators, it is projected that most vaping products being sold are illegal and that 90% of the vaping products originate in China. Ironically, the reaction of federal authorities and policymakers has been to propose more prohibitions on legal products – overwhelmingly used by adults and lifetime smokers to transition away from cigarettes – rather than addressing the source of the problem: the flood of illegal products through our open border. It’s another example of the dangers that come from a dysfunctional government.

    To elaborate, federal tobacco regulators appear set on using the robust cartel-supported black market in vaping products aimed at kids to further their long-time prohibitionist agenda (and one of Michael Bloomberg’s favorite pet projects). These regulatory efforts have been bolstered by user-fee supported special interest groups who fund splashy ad campaigns highlighting teen vaping use as the basis for their actions. Yet, the regulatory agenda seeks to outlaw a whole host of products used by adults, for which abolition seems certain to offer an even greater market opportunity for the Chinese drug cartel alliance and likely to increase access to illicit products by youth.

    This may be a shocking observation to some, but this example and others indicate that senior government officials may see the lawlessness stemming from the border as a feature rather than a bug. Take Claire Trickler-McNulty, the Biden administration’s assistant director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Officials like Ms. Trickler-McNulty appear set on turning law enforcement agencies into social services organizations. Before joining the Biden administration, Trickler-McNulty worked for an organization that advocated for the abolition of the agency she now helps lead – in the spirit of the “defund the police” movement. Unsurprisingly, the overrun southern border has given her social service aspirations lots of prospective “clients” seeking federal assistance.

    While Trickler-McNulty has faced criticism for the so-called transition from a traditional law enforcement focus, she appears unfazed. The same could also be said of her former employer, Kids in Need of Defense, a major recipient of George Soros’s Open Society Foundation that has also benefited handsomely from its influential role in the Biden administration’s open border policy with a $13 million contract.

    The ways in which American families and businesses are being harmed by the open border policies could fill volumes. But it’s clear that state budgets, neighborhood safety, and our children’s futures are all being endangered while the drug cartels and our most powerful foreign adversaries become enriched and empowered. Instead of using these tragedies to advance the special interest agendas of Michael Bloomberg and George Soros, perhaps we could all agree that the American chapter on human trafficking, opioids, and open borders should be relegated to the history books.

    Pete McGinnis is director of communications at the Functional Government Initiative.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 19:50

  • Canada To Create Registry Of Podcasters In Potential Censorship Initiative 
    Canada To Create Registry Of Podcasters In Potential Censorship Initiative 

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is taking Canada down a dangerous path of censorship to regulate streaming services and social media platforms. The next regulation phase comes as some podcasters will soon have to register with the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission.

    The Online Streaming Act, formerly Bill C-11, goes into effect on Nov. 28, meaning any online streaming service that operates in Canada and generates revenue of more than $10 million in a given year will have to register with CRTC. 

    The Canadian government pitches the new rule as a “modern broadcasting framework that can adapt to changing circumstances. To do that, we need broad engagement and robust public records.” It requires those podcasters to register with CRTC ‘only once’ and “collects basic information” from them, such as:

    “First, the CRTC is setting out which online streaming services need to provide information about their activities in Canada.”

    So what’s with the government creating a database of prominent podcasters?

    One potential reason could be for the Liberal government to censor unapproved government narratives quickly. Having a registry of podcasters and the type of content they create makes it much easier for those in the government’s censorship department. 

     “The CRTC now wants to regulate podcasts,” Toronto Sun’s Brian Lilley posted on X, adding, “Here is my simple message to them. Go to hell.” 

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    On Sunday morning, Elon Musk chimed in on the conversation, responding to X account Wall Street Silver: “Regulate podcasts!?” 

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    While Trudeau has called everyone under the sun a ‘Nazi,’ from a Jewish member of parliament named Melissa Lantsman to “Freedom Convoy” trucker protesters, the radical leftist prime minister recently applauded a literal Waffen-SS Nazi with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in Canada’s Parliament. 

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    Trudeau immediately blamed “Russian disinformation” for applauding the Nazi. 

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    Even though Trudeau eventually apologized for applauding the Nazi, his attempt to distort reality is another sign that the government routinely engages in mass censorship campaigns and further wants to regulate what podcasters have to say. 

    Remember, building a registry makes the job much easier for the government. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 19:15

  • AOC Defends Lawmaker Who Pulled Fire Alarm To 'Open Door' And Totally Not Disrupt The Democratic Process
    AOC Defends Lawmaker Who Pulled Fire Alarm To ‘Open Door’ And Totally Not Disrupt The Democratic Process

    Democratic lawmaker Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) thinks we’re all idiots, after offering an unbelievable excuse after he was caught on CCTV pulling the fire alarm in a House office building while Democrats were trying to delay a House vote on the stopgap bill which eventually passed at the 11th hour.

    Bowman – who founded a school that would have held several fire drills per year, wants us to believe he mistook this fire alarm…

    …for an automatic door opener that he was trying to use to open a clearly marked emergency exit.

    In a Saturday statement, Bowman said “I want to personally clear up confusion surrounding today’s events,” adding “Today, as I was rushing to make a vote, I came to a door that is usually open.” (it’s not)

    “I am embarrassed to admit that I activated the fire alarm, mistakenly thinking it would open the door.”

    U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) speaks to reporters in front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on March 22, 2023. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

    And of course, galaxy brain AOC had to chime in…

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    And now, Bowman has found himself under investigation.

    “Rep (Jamaal) Bowman pulled a fire alarm in Cannon this morning,” said House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-WI), who added that “An investigation into why it was pulled is underway.”

    As the Epoch Times notes; The fire alarm in the Cannon House Office Building, often called the “Old House Office Building,” was triggered around noon, leading to an evacuation of the entire building while the House was in session. The building was reopened an hour later, after Capitol Police determined the situation was not a threat.

    Capitol Police said in a statement late Saturday that an “investigation into what happened and why continues.”

    The fire alarms in the Old House Office Building are pull down triggers encased in bright red boxes that read “FIRE.”

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    The Epoch Times has reached out to the Capitol Police for further comment.

    At the time of the evacuation, Democrat lawmakers in the House were working to delay a vote on a 45-day funding bill to keep federal agencies open. They said they needed time to review the 71-page bill that Republicans had just released to avoid a shutdown.

    The stopgap funding bill was ultimately passed in a 335-91 vote. Mr. Bowman and a majority of Democrats voted in support of the bill.

    Lawmakers in the Senate in a vote late Saturday night passed the measure, sending it to President Joe Biden to sign in order to avoid a government shutdown on Oct. 1. President Biden signed the measure late Saturday night.

    After the bill passed the House, a number of Republicans, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), criticized Mr. Bowman for having triggered the fire alarm.

    Mr. McCarthy on Saturday afternoon called for an investigation into Mr. Bowman, telling reporters at a press conference, “I think ethics should look at this.”

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    He noted Mr. Bowman’s action was caught on camera and said it “should not go without punishment.”

    Turley opines

    According to constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley;

    In D.C., this would constitute a criminal misdemeanor. It would also obviously be treated as sanctionable conduct under the House rules. Even without addressing any attempt to cause fear or panic, here is the most obvious crime:

    § 22–1319. False alarms and false reports; hoax weapons.

    (a) It shall be unlawful for any person or persons to willfully or knowingly give a false alarm of fire within the District of Columbia, and any person or persons violating the provisions of this subsection shall, upon conviction, be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor and be punished by a fine not more than the amount set forth in § 22-3571.01 or by imprisonment for not more than 6 months, or by both such fine and imprisonment. Prosecutions for violation of the provisions of this subsection shall be on information filed in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia by the Office of the Attorney General for the District of Columbia.

    (a-1) It shall be unlawful for any person or persons to willfully or knowingly use, or allow the use of, the 911 call system to make a false or fictitious report or complaint which initiates a response by District of Columbia emergency personnel or officials when, at the time of the call or transmission, the person knows the report or complaint is false. Any person or persons violating the provisions of this subsection shall, upon conviction, be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor and be punished by a fine not more than the amount set forth in § 22-3571.01 or by imprisonment for not more than 6 months. Prosecutions for violation of the provisions of this subsection shall be on information filed in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia by the Office of the Attorney General for the District of Columbia.

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    Let’s see if Bowman, who by the transitive properties of bullshit is now an insurrectionist, will face justice.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 18:55

  • Things Are Going So Well For Biden That…
    Things Are Going So Well For Biden That…

    By Mish Shedlock of Mishtalk

    Let’s count the ways…

    Key Ideas

    • Voters are now more likely to see the Republican Party as capable of governing, tackling big issues and keeping the country safe compared with the Democratic Party.
    • By a 9-point margin, voters also see the Democratic Party as more ideologically extreme than the GOP.
    • The trends against the Democratic Party are largely driven by worsening perceptions among its own voter base, which suggests that the party will have to rely more than ever on negative partisanship to keep control of the White House.

    Those are not my thoughts. That’s what the latest Morning Consult poll shows.

    In a significant reversal from the last presidential election year, U.S. voters are now more likely to see the Republican Party as capable of governing, keeping the country safe and tackling the big issues compared with the Democratic Party. These crossing trend lines provide a stark contrast from the lead-up to 2020, when Morning Consult surveys showed public opinion on the same questions was more static.

    Both parties are also trending in different directions on two other characteristics that voters favored Democrats on in 2020. Voters have become less likely to see the GOP as stale, and more likely to say this descriptor fits the Democratic Party. And over that same time frame, voters increasingly say the GOP is responsible.

    It’s not just that some voters have lost faith in the Democratic Party’s stewardship of the country — they also see the party as moving asymmetrically away from ideological moderation.

    By an almost double-digit margin, voters are now more likely to say the Democratic Party is “too liberal” than they are to say the GOP is “too conservative.” That’s another big change from 2020, when roughly equivalent shares viewed both parties as too ideologically extreme.

    Claim Everything is Working

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    People elected Biden (barely) for two reasons. The first being he wasn’t Trump. The second being they expected him to be a moderate.

    Then instead of bringing the nation together as promised, Biden morphed into the Progressive’s dream candidate stoking inflation with every decision.

    Voters are upset. They want action on the border. They want better schools. They are fearful of inflation.

    They don’t want to give up their gas stove. They don’t want to be forced into a high-priced EV when the infrastructure isn’t ready.

    They did not expect Biden to be like Trump.

    Biden is telling people how great the Bidenomics economy is, how he’s providing the most jobs, that he is best this and the best that, and the economy is humming, and he is bringing inflation down at the fastest pace in history.

    Whatever. It seems so hollow because it is hollow. And voters see right through it.

    Other than being much more polite in his delivery, Biden may as well have said, “I built a wall and Mexico paid for it”.

    Somehow it seems harder to lie and get away with it when you are in power than when you aren’t.

    Bidenomics In a Nutshell

    1. Hand out free money via unwarranted subsidies to ease the pain of stupid regulations
    2. Stoke massive inflation in the process
    3. Brag that it is working.

    Here’s the deal. You can run against Trump once and win if your key message is “I’m not Trump.”

    But can you do it twice with nothing more than inflation and a more polite delivery to back it up?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 18:40

  • Michigan Teen Who Clocked Teacher In Head With Metal Chair Arrested On Felony Assault Charges
    Michigan Teen Who Clocked Teacher In Head With Metal Chair Arrested On Felony Assault Charges

    A 15-year-old Michigan teen is two facing felony assault charges after she was caught on video launching a metal chair at her teacher’s head during a heated argument with another student.

    The teacher, who attempted to break up the fight, turned her back to the assailant when the chair was hurled at the educator, striking her in the head and causing her to drop to the floor where she did not move for approximately seven seconds.

    The Genesee County Prosecutor’s office made the arrest following the “unacceptable act of violence,” which went viral last week, ABC 12 reports.

    The teacher was found lying on the ground by the school resource office, who entered the classroom to break up the fight, according to Flint Police Chief Terence Green. 

    Both girls involved in the fight were placed under arrest, while the unnamed teacher was quickly rushed to the hospital. She has since been released and is “doing well.”

    “We are committed to ensuring that our schools are safe and conducive to learning for all scholars, and we take this responsibility very seriously,” wrote the district’s superintendent, who said that the girl who threw the chair will be held accountable.

    As the NY Post notes, former Detroit Police Chief James Craig said “This video perfectly captures the sad state of Education in Michigan – no sense of order or direction, no respect for teachers, and worst of all, NO LEARNING,” adding “Failure to educate young Michiganders is a recipe for increased CRIME, upticks in UNEMPLOYMENT, and SOCIETAL DISORDER. Michiganders deserve better.”

    Craig is planning to run as a Republican in the upcoming Senate race.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 18:05

  • 20th Busload Of Illegal Immigrants Arrives In Downtown Los Angeles
    20th Busload Of Illegal Immigrants Arrives In Downtown Los Angeles

    Via The Epoch Times,

    Yet another bus carrying illegal immigrants arrived in downtown Los Angeles Sept. 30, marking the 20th such arrival since June.

    “One bus with migrants on board from Texas arrived around 1:45 p.m. today at Union Station,” read a statement from Mayor Karen Bass’s office.

    “This is the 20th bus that has arrived. The city has continued to work with city departments, the county, and a coalition of nonprofit organizations, in addition to our faith partners, to execute a plan set in place earlier this year. As we have before, when we became aware of the bus yesterday, we activated our plan.”

    When three busloads with 109 illegal immigrants arrived Friday, Ms. Bass noted that “Governor [Greg] Abbott continues to put vulnerable lives in jeopardy with limited food and water on multi-day bus journeys to Los Angeles.”

    On X, the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA) confirmed the arrival of 27 asylum-seekers Saturday with no children. It did not specify from which nations they had come.

    While the collective expected 109 illegal immigrants to arrive Friday, it only assisted 65, citing that some of them may have been picked up by family members or sponsors, or some left immediately upon their arrival at Union Station.

    Of the 65 illegal immigrants, 16 were children and there were 35 family-units, meaning migrants who traveled with a spouse, partner, a child or children. Additionally, 36 were female and 29 were male.

    According to the CHIRLA, which is a member of the L.A. Welcomes Collective, a network of nonprofit, faith groups, and city and county services that respond to the arrival of migrant buses, a third of all illegal immigrants arriving in Los Angeles by bus have been children.

    “When migrants arrive in California—more than 434,000 have arrived in California since 2019—we receive them, integrate them into society, and they in turn contribute positively to our way of life. The Golden State is an immigrant state and that will not change,” CHIRLA wrote on X.

    Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass speaks onstage during EMILYs List’s 2023 Pre-Oscars Breakfast at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, Calif., on March 7, 2023. (Araya Doheny/Getty Images for EMILYs List)

    The Clergy & Laity United for Economic Justice, another member of the collective, wrote on X they learned of two of Friday’s buses early Friday morning. The lack of information resulted in “stretching our resources for greeting people with dignity and respect, helping them reunite with family and connect with sponsors,” according to CLUE Justice.

    “It is abhorrent and cruel of Gov. Abbott to send human beings who are tired, hungry and yearning for a safe haven on a 30-hour bus ride without regard for their care, journey or destination,” CHIRLA wrote on X.

    “It is clear he is trying to disrupt our efforts, but we will persevere.”

    Jorge-Mario Cabrera, director of communications for CHIRLA, told City News Service since June a third, 35 percent of illegal immigrants arriving on buses from Texas are children, which is one of many reasons the collective condemns Mr. Abbot’s actions.

    Mr. Cabrera also noted some “folks [illegal immigrants] told us that L.A. was not their destination. They were just told to get on that bus.” Many had not eaten in three days, he added.

    The collective usually gets tips hours ahead from volunteers, organizations or from good Samaritans about the arrival of a bus. The route of buses from Brownsville are easier to predict, Mr. Cabrera said, but when they are sent from different cities like Del Rio, it’s “difficult to guess when they’ll arrive.”

    Migrants who have crossed into the U.S. from Mexico in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Aug. 25, 2023, enter a Border Patrol vehicle to be taken to a processing facility. (Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP via Getty Images)

    Illegal immigrants received a medical check up, and no one was in need of serious medical attention. Mr. Cabrera reiterated the collective will support them with basic needs as they are met by their family or sponsors.

    Mr. Cabrera said he hopes the buses will slow down and stop altogether because Gov. Abbott is using illegal immigrants as “political pawns” without regard to their health. But he knows that is less than likely as the political season takes shape.

    Texas Gov. Abbott has been arranging the trips under Operation Lone Star (OLS), saying Texas’s border region is “overwhelmed” by immigrants crossing the Mexican border. OLS is a joint operation between the Texas Department of Public Safety and the Texas Military Department along the southern border between Texas and Mexico.

    In a recent interview with Fox News, Mr. Abbott said “What we’ve seen is when Democrats have to face up to the reality of what Texas has to deal with every single day, they adopt the same approach that Texas has.”

    “We need the president to start enforcing the immigration laws of the United States of America, period,” he added.

    Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks at a news conference in Beaumont, Texas, on Oct. 17, 2022. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

    Ms. Bass has complained that Mr. Abbott’s office does not share enough information with Los Angeles about the shipments. She told KNX that if Mr. Abbott’s concerns and actions were legitimate and sincere, then “someone in the government and Texas would notify us and coordinate with us.”

    “We hear about the buses headed our way when they’re on the way. We have no idea who’s going to be on the bus, how many people it is or what condition they’re going to be in when they get here,” she said.

    “Sometimes they haven’t had any food, barely had enough water.”

    The Los Angeles City Council approved a motion on June 9 seeking to formally establish the city as a sanctuary city.

    Last month, the council approved a motion calling for the City Attorney’s Office to investigate whether crimes were committed on or before June 14, when Mr. Abbott sent 42 illegal immigrants to Los Angeles in the first of the shipments.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 17:30

  • Trump Receives Cheers From CA Crowd After Arguing In Favor Of Shooting Looters
    Trump Receives Cheers From CA Crowd After Arguing In Favor Of Shooting Looters

    Donald Trump is, if anything, very skilled at reading the room, or in this case reading the overall mood of the country.  In 2015, suggesting that looters become free game for law enforcement and that they should fully expect to be shot while leaving stores might have been the kind of comment that lost him the election.  Or at least it would have garnered a tidal wave of outrage and debates over police overreach.  Today, the public is tired of certain groups of malcontents being allowed to do whatever they please whenever they please without consequences simply because of their supposed victim group status.

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    In this day and age, skipping past the arrest process and shooting looters sounds reasonable even to crowds in Anaheim, California.  The pendulum always swings the other direction, and in some cases it swings hard.

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    With numerous Democrats either lying about the ongoing spike in crime across the country or defending the practice of mass theft as a form of righteous “reparations” or activism, the perception among criminals is that it is now open season, and perhaps they are even justified in their actions.  According to Dems, the criminals are the good guys.

    The perception among conservatives and moderates is that progressives fully intend to let America burn while gaslighting the public about how the fire is not that hot.  Americans are obviously not buying it.  Since 2022, polls show that at least 78% of Americans believe crime is rising across the nation with 56% saying they have seen a direct increase where they live. 

    These poll results led to an extensive corporate media campaign over the course of 2023, in which journalists used faulty and incomplete stats to argue that crime is actually going down.  In reality, a host of Democrat run cities and states are withholding full reports on their crime statistics while the Federal Government adjusts the manner in which they collate the data.  This readjustment conveniently started during the covid lockdowns as crime began to skyrocket. 

    Needless to say, the country is fed up.  However, it should be noted that Trump seems to focus particularly on law enforcement as being held back from doing their jobs while overlooking the reality that property owners in many areas hit with theft are also held back from defending themselves and their businesses.  Fear of targeted prosecution is real, with blue cities aggressively pursuing jail time for people stopping a crime, specifically if a minority happens to be harmed.   

    The first line of defense is not local law enforcement, it is the property owner.  When something bad happens, they will be the first people on the scene.  The question of freeing up police to do their jobs is secondary to the question of the attempted degradation of the right to self defense.  Making shop owners safe to shoot looters regardless of the kinds of politicians and prosecutors that run the cities they live in would more likely have the kind of impact on crime that Trump describes.  

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 16:55

  • "Who Do Americans Think They Are?" Charles Nenner Warns "It's Over, They Can't Rule The World Anymore"
    “Who Do Americans Think They Are?” Charles Nenner Warns “It’s Over, They Can’t Rule The World Anymore”

    Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

    Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner has been warning his war cycles were turning up. 

    Nenner says, “It happens like clockwork in the second decade of a new century.” 

    Nenner says it’s a lot like the stock market running out of gas, and he warns,

    “It’s like a stock market that is topping.  First, the weak stocks go down.  Then, the indexes are still holding up, and then the big ones go down. 

    Now, you see for instance, Apple also came down, but first, the small stocks came down.  It’s already happening, but you only see the results suddenly when the whole thing crashes…

    Americans seem to have no worries about the war that could be coming. I don’t want people to lose sleep, but the pact is forming. 

    It is China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.  They are going against the United States that does not have a functional army anymore…

    Who do the Americans think they are?  It’s over, they can’t rule the world anymore.  If they are going to fight all these countries, I don’t think it is going to end well.”

    Does Nenner see the American Empire ending?  Nenner says,

    “I think it ended already, but we just don’t know it yet. 

    One of the signals of end of empire is bad education, which we have. 

    Another signal is the lifespan of people is shorter than for the people before. 

    What do you want me to say?  It does not look good, does it? 

    Another signal is your children have it worse than the generation before. 

    So, there is a whole list of signals, and it points to the United States is in trouble…

    I would be short America . . . and I would go long the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India China).

    Nenner says the stock market is on its way to being “substantially lower, but not just yet.” 

    Nenner also sees the cycles for gold, silver, bonds and real estate all going lower from here, but gold and silver will be going back up longer term.  The only thing Nenner likes right now are short-term Treasury bonds.  The dollar will hold up for now, but it is headed much lower in the not-so-distant future.  Nenner also likes energy, but it is cycling down at the moment. 

    Nenner says, “Inflation goes up and down” and warns, “Inflation is starting another up trend.”

    This round of inflation is probably going to be very painful for the common man.

    There is much more in the 41-minute interview.

    Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner for 9.30.23.

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    To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

    There is free information and analysis on CharlesNenner.com.

    You can also sign up to be a subscriber for Nenner’s cutting edge cycle work with a free trial period by clicking here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 16:20

  • "Premiums Are Going Nuts Everywhere": Plunging US Supply Sends Oil Prices Around The World Soaring
    “Premiums Are Going Nuts Everywhere”: Plunging US Supply Sends Oil Prices Around The World Soaring

    Buyers of physical oil across the planet are experiencing an acute supply shortage and are facing some of the highest premiums for supplies they’ve seen in months as plunging stocks at the largest US crude storage hub send shockwaves cross markets from Asia to Europe and the Middle East.

    As Bloomberg reports, US crude cargoes on offer in Asia are being offered at the costliest premium this year. The spread between Brent and Middle East oil has jumped to the highest since February while the premium for near-term US supply is close to the highest since July 2022.

    Behind the soaring premiums is Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for benchmark US crude futures, which helps to set the price of oil across the Americas and beyond. As we have noted in recent weeks, inventories at the hub are now sitting just above seasonal lows last seen in 2014, and are effectively at the level known as “tank bottoms” below which inventories are for the most part unusable.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma tumbled below 22 million barrels last week, the lowest since July 2022, and have dropped for seven straight weeks, reaching the lowest level at this time of the year since at least 2018. At these levels, many traders consider inventories to already be at the lowest levels that allow tanks to function normally.

    The situation is forcing some traders to pay up big for last-minute supplies at Cushing. The prompt futures spread, which closely tracks supply and demand at the site, surged above $2 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since July 2022.

    Meanwhile, the US refinery maintenance season is getting underway, which will prevent the storage hub from draining to absolute lows. Still, exports remain a wild card for balances, given that demand for American oil is high amid OPEC+ supply curbs, meaning domestic users will likely have to pay up to keep barrels in the US.

    Operationally, pulling oil out of tanks when levels fall below the so-called “suction line” is difficult and expensive, and the quality of crude can be compromised by the presence of water and sediment. For now, traders are expecting stockpiles to halt their decline by October and possibly start building up again, depending on how exports shape up. Indeed, this week’s drawdown was less than 1 million barrels — the first time that’s happened since early August.

    Cushing’s role in global oil markets has also diminished in recent years since the US lifted an export ban. Most barrels now flow straight from the prolific oilfields in Texas’ Permian Basin to the coast, where they are shipped to overseas buyers.

    “Cushing can stay at minimum operating operating levels for an extended period of time,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at ICAP. “It’s now a transit point to the US Gulf Coast and a supply point for Cushing-based refiners.”

    The latest surge in US crude spreads also fueled a jump in Brent spreads, with the prompt spread climbing above $2 as well, to the widest in a year.

    All that’s happening just as the world was already facing a tight supply situation with Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting output. In recent months, the US had helped fill a void left in the market, routinely sending more than 4 million barrels every day to sate global appetite. Between overseas shipments and strong domestic demand, stockpiles quickly declined in the US. Now there’s a question of whether those flows will continue.

    “We’re running out of oil – you can see how low storage is at Cushing,” said Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant turned hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors LLC. “If we’re running out at Cushing, then we’re running out in Europe, because it relies on US exports. If the US exports less, then where is Europe going to get its oil from?”

    As supplies collapse, cargoes of WTI Midland crude for January delivery to Asia are being offered for sale at premiums of $9 a barrel above benchmark Dubai oil, according to traders who buy and sell the grade. That would be the highest premium seen this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Actual trading will likely start next week, giving more clarity on how much stronger the market for US barrels has gotten.

    Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude also surged against Dubai on the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi exchange. Although spot cargoes of Middle Eastern crude will only begin trading in the coming weeks, the premium of the grade — often compared with WTI Midland — increased to the highest since February/

    In the futures market, the surge is already apparent. The tightness in US supplies narrowed the gap between US crude and international benchmark Brent to under $3 a barrel, the smallest since May last year. Meanwhile, the spread between Brent and Middle East’s Dubai marker — also known as Brent-Dubai EFS — has skyrocketed

    While there’s been a lot of angst over the shrinking US inventories, there are yet to be any concrete signs of a slowdown in American exports.

    “Waterborne exports in October are still likely to come in close to 4 million barrels a day,” said Matt Smith, oil analyst at Kpler. “The lagged impact of the tightening Brent-WTI spread means we may not see the full impact until November’s loadings.”

    For November and beyond, it’s still likely exports will hover around the 4 million barrels a day level, Smith said, citing strong domestic shale production.

    Traders also point to inventories being fairly robust in the Gulf Coast region as a sign that US exports could continue to remain strong for a few weeks. At the same time, heavy seasonal refinery maintenance work in the US alongside turnarounds in Europe should also offer a cushion and free up some supplies.

    Already, prices for WTI in Midland and WTI at Houston are weakening relative to prices at Cushing. If that continues, it could re-open the arbitrage window to ship crude profitably to Asia. It should also help to send more barrels to Cushing.

    Still, there are signs that some European refiners are having to pay up for immediate supplies.

    Angola’s Sonangol sold four cargoes as much as $1.50 a barrel above offer prices over the past week, with three of the shipments likely going to Europe. Those cargoes would usually be destined for Asia — the atypical trade pattern reflects some of the market’s sharp swings this week.

    “The premiums are going nuts everywhere,” Ross said. “The Saudis have tightened this market up dramatically.” Almost as if Saudi Crown Prince MBS doesn’t care much for Joe Biden’s sole election “strategy” of keeping gas prices low – fist bumps notwithstanding…

    … especially now that the US SPR is half-empty and any continued drainage would lead to catastrophic collapse at the salt caverns that hold US emergency inventories, sending oil prices to new record highs.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 15:45

  • Over 277,000 'Vaccinated' COVID-19 Cases Hidden By CDC In 2021: Newly Obtained Files Show
    Over 277,000 ‘Vaccinated’ COVID-19 Cases Hidden By CDC In 2021: Newly Obtained Files Show

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    More than 277,000 COVID-19 cases among people who received COVID-19 vaccines were reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2021 but not disclosed to the public, newly obtained files show.

    Some 144,349 cases among partially vaccinated people were reported by 32 jurisdictions to the CDC across three months in 2021, according to some of the files, which were acquired by The Epoch Times through the Freedom of Information Act.

    Partially vaccinated has been defined by the CDC as a person who received at least one dose of a vaccine. People were described as fully vaccinated if at least 14 days had elapsed since they completed a primary series.

    The Moderna and Pfizer primary series consisted of two doses while Johnson & Johnson’s consisted of one dose.

    The cases were recorded in California, Maryland, New York, Texas, and 28 other jurisdictions in April, May, and June 2021 and reported to the CDC.

    The CDC never disclosed the numbers to the public.

    “These data on partially vaccinated persons were not reported publicly but rather, were collected to ensure that that they were being appropriately excluded from the numbers of vaccine breakthrough cases as described as a best practice on the CDC website,” staffers at the CDC’s National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases told The Epoch Times in a letter.

    On a webpage advising state and local officials on how to analyze patterns of COVID-19 by vaccination status, the CDC recommends excluding people who only received one Moderna or Pfizer dose or analyzing them separately.

    The exclusion is recommended “because only people that have received all of the recommended primary series doses and have had the required duration of time to form a protective immunological response after vaccination (14 days, per the definition) would be expected to receive the full benefit of the COVID-19 vaccination,” the CDC said. “In general, the immunological response to a primary vaccination series usually takes 2–4 weeks. Only partial protection is provided to partially vaccinated persons.”

    Stopped Reporting

    The CDC stopped reporting post-vaccination infections among the fully vaccinated, or breakthrough cases, in May 2021, after disclosing that 10,262 breakthrough infections were reported to the agency by 46 jurisdictions through April 30, 2021.

    The CDC said that 995 of the cases resulted in hospitalization and 160 resulted in death.

    The CDC said it shifted to only reporting breakthrough cases that resulted in hospitalization or death “to help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance.”

    It’s not clear how many infections in the partially vaccinated that the CDC did not disclose before led to hospitalization or death.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Ga., on Aug. 25, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    Changed Definition

    The CDC initially defined a breakthrough case as people who tested positive seven or more days after completing a primary series but changed the definition to testing positive at least 14 days after completion of a primary series after emailing about “vaccine failure,” documents obtained by The Epoch Times showed.

    “CDC made the change to the definition of a breakthrough infection time period due to the most current data that showed that the 14-day period was required for an effective antibody response to the vaccines,” a CDC spokesman told The Epoch Times recently via email.

    The CDC’s National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases falsely said in the new letter that it never changed the definition.

    “Since COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough surveillance began (January 2021), the definition of a breakthrough infection has been the same,” the center claimed.

    The CDC has not sent a correction as of yet. It has made other false claims during the COVID-19 pandemic, some of which remain uncorrected.

    The CDC also said that some of the partially vaccinated numbers were reported on one of its webpages, but a review of archived versions of that page did not show that to be the case. The page, which has been taken down, said that cases among the partially vaccinated were excluded.

    Hid Other Cases

    Another 133,000 post-vaccination cases occurred among Medicare beneficiaries through September 2021, according to Humetrix, a contractor that analyzed the data. The case count excluded partially vaccinated people.

    Humetrix provided the data to the CDC in August 2021, according to other documents obtained through the Freedom of Information Act.

    The CDC spoke in meetings with the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, the CDC’s panel of vaccine advisers, and the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, which advises the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, after receiving that data but did not present it to either one.

    The meetings resulted in the approval of Pfizer’s vaccine and the authorization of a Pfizer booster. The CDC then recommended both for wide swaths of the U.S. population.

    The CDC declined to comment on withholding the Humetrix data.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/01/2023 – 15:10

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Today’s News 1st October 2023

  • Escobar: Russia-China Partnership Defangs US Empire
    Escobar: Russia-China Partnership Defangs US Empire

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    China’s State Council has released a crucial policy paper titled ‘A Global Community of Shared Future: China’s Proposals and Actions’ that should be read as a detailed, comprehensive road map for a peaceful, multipolar future.

    That is if the hegemon – of course faithful to its configuration as War Inc. – does not drag the world into the abyss of a hybrid-turned-hot war with incandescent consequences.

    In sync with the ever-evolving Russia-China strategic partnership, the white paper notes how “President Xi Jinping first raised the vision of a global community of shared future when addressing the Moscow State Institute of International Relations in 2013.”

    That was ten years ago, when the New Silk Roads – or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – was launched: that became the overarching foreign policy concept of the Xi era. The Belt and Road Forum next month in Beijing will celebrate the 10th anniversary of BRI, and relaunch a series of BRI projects.

    “Community of Shared Future” is a concept virtually ignored across the collective West – and in several cases lost in translation across the East. The white paper’s ambition is to introduce “the theoretical base, practice and development of a global community of shared future.”

    The five key points include building partnerships “in which countries treat each other as equals”; a fair and just security environment; “inclusive development”; inter-civilization exchanges; and “an ecosystem that puts Mother Nature and green development first,” as Xi detailed at the 2015 UN General Assembly.

    The white paper forcefully debunks the “Thucydides Trap” fallacy: “There is no iron law that dictates that a rising power will inevitably seek hegemony. This assumption represents typical hegemonic thinking and is grounded in memories of catastrophic wars between hegemonic powers in the past.”

    While criticizing the “zero-sum game” to which “certain countries” still cling to, China completely aligns with the Global South/global majority, as in “the common interests of all peoples around the world. When the world thrives, China thrives, and vice versa.”

    Well, that’s not exactly the “rules-based international order” in play.

    It’s All About Harmony

    When it comes to building a new system of international relations, China prioritizes “extensive consultation” among equals and “the principle of sovereign equality” that “runs through the UN Charter.” History and realpolitik, though, dictate that some countries are more equal than others.

    This white paper comes from the political leadership of a civilization-state. Thus it naturally promotes the “increase of inter-civilization exchanges to promote harmony” while elegantly remarking how a “fine traditional culture epitomizes the essence of the Chinese civilization.”

    Here we see a delicate blend of Taoism and Confucianism, where harmony – praised as “the core concept of Chinese culture” – is extrapolated to the concept of “harmony within diversity”: and that is exactly the basis for embracing cultural diversity.

    In terms of promoting a dialogue of civilizations, these paragraphs are particularly relevant:

    “The concept of a global community of shared future reflects the common interests of all civilizations – peace, development, unity, coexistence, and win-win cooperation. A Russian proverb holds, ‘Together we can weather the storm.’

    “The Swiss-German writer Hermann Hesse proposed, ‘Serve not war and destruction, but peace and reconciliation.’ A German proverb reads, ‘An individual’s effort is addition; a team’s effort is multiplication.’ An African proverb states, ‘One single pillar is not sufficient to build a house.’ An Arabian proverb asserts, ‘If you want to walk fast, walk alone; if you want to walk far, walk together.’

    “Mexican poet Alfonso Reyes wrote, ‘The only way to be profitably national is to be generously universal.’ An Indonesian proverb says, ‘Sugarcane and lemongrass grow in dense clumps.’ A Mongolian proverb concludes, ‘Neighbors are connected at heart and share a common destiny.’ All the above narratives manifest the profound cultural and intellectual essence of the world.”

    BRI Caravan Rolls On

    Chinese diplomacy has been very vocal on the need to develop a “new type of economic globalization” and engage in “peaceful development” and true multilateralism.

    And that brings us inevitably to the BRI, which the white paper defines as “a vivid example of building a global community of shared future, and a global public good and cooperation platform provided by China to the world.”

    Of course, for the hegemon and its collective West vassals, BRI is nothing but a massive debt trap mechanism unleashed by “autocrat China”.

    The white paper notes, factually, how “more than three-quarters of countries in the world and over 30 international organizations” had joined the BRI, and refers to the sprawling, ever-expanding connectivity framework of six corridors, six routes, an array of ports, pipelines and cyberspace connectivity, among others via the New Eurasian Land Bridge, the China-Europe Railway Express (a “steel camel fleet”) and the New Land-Sea Trade Corridor crisscrossing Eurasia.

    A serious problem may involve China’s Global Development Initiative, whose fundamental aim, according to Beijing, is “to accelerate the implementation of the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”

    Well, this agenda has been designed by the self-described Davos elites and conceptualized way back in 1992 by Rockefeller protégé Maurice Strong. Its inbuilt wet dream is to enforce the Great Reset – complete with a nonsensical zero-carbon green agenda.

    Better Listen to Medvedev’s Warning

    The hegemon is already preparing the next stages of its hybrid war against China – even as it remains buried deep down into a de facto proxy hot war against Russia in Ukraine.

    Russian strategic policy, in essence, completely aligns with the Chinese white paper, proposing a Greater Eurasian Partnership, a concerted drive towards multipolarity, and the primacy of the Global South/global majority in forging a new system of international relations.

    But the Straussian neocon psychos in charge of the hegemon’s foreign policy keep raising the stakes. So it’s no wonder that after the recent attack on the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, a new National Security Council report leads to an ominous warning by Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev:

    “NATO has turned into an openly fascist bloc similar to Hitler’s Axis, only bigger (…) It looks like Russia is being left with little choice other than a direct conflict with NATO (…) The result would be much heavier losses for humanity than in 1945.”

    The Russian Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, has revealed that Ukraine has suffered a staggering 83,000 battlefield deaths since the start of the – failed – counteroffensive four months ago.

    And Defense Minister Shoigu all but gave away the game in terms of the long-term strategy, when he said, “the consistent implementation of measures and activity plans until 2025 will allow us to achieve our goals.”

    So the SMO will not be rounded up before 2025 – incidentally, much later than the next US presidential election. After all, Moscow’s ultimate aim is de-NATOization.

    Faced with a cosmic NATO humiliation on the battlefield, the Biden combo has no way out: even if it declared a unilateral ceasefire to re-weaponize Kiev’s forces for a new counteroffensive in the spring/summer of 2024, the war would keep rumbling on all the way to the presidential election.

    There’s absolutely no way some sharp intellect in the Beltway would read the Chinese white paper and be “infected” by the concept of harmony. Under the yoke of Straussian neocon psychos, there are zero prospects for a détente with Russia – not to mention Russia-China.

    Both the Chinese and Russian leaderships know quite well how the Ray McGovern-defined MICIMATT (military-industrial-congressional-intelligence-media-academia-think tank complex) works.

    The kinetic aspect of MICIMATT is all about protection of the global interests of big US banks, investment/hedge funds and multinational corporations. It’s not a coincidence that MICIMATT monster Lockheed-Martin is mostly owned by Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street. NATO is essentially a mafia protection racket controlled by the US and the UK that has nothing to do with “defending” Europe from the “Russian threat.”

    The actual MICIMATT and its NATO extension’s wet dream is to weaken and dismember Russia to control its immense natural resources.

    War Against the New ‘Axis of Evil’

    NATO’s incoming graphic humiliation in Ukraine is now compounded with the inexorable rise of BRICS 11 – which embodies a lethal threat to the hegemon’s geoeconomics. There’s next to nothing the MICIMATT can do about that short of nuclear war – except turbo-charging multiple instances of Hybrid War, color revolutions and assorted divide-and-rule schemes. What’s at stake is no less than a complete implosion of neoliberalism.

    The Russia-China strategic partnership of true sovereigns has been coordinating full-time.

    Strategic patience is the norm. The white paper reveals the magnanimous facet of the number one economy in the world by PPP: that’s China’s response to the infantile notion of “de-risking”.

    China is “de-risking” geopolitically when it comes to not falling for serial provocations by the Hegemon, while Russia exercises Taoist-style control to not risk a kinetic war.

    Still, what Medvedev just said carries the implication that the hegemon on desperation row could even be tempted to launch WWIII against, in fact, a new “axis of evil” of three BRICS nations – Russia, China and Iran.

    Secretary of the [Russian] National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev could not have been more crystal clear:

    “In its attempts to maintain its dominance, the West itself destroyed the tools that worked better for it than the military machine. These are freedom of movement of goods and services, transport and logistics corridors, a unified system of payments, global division of labor and value chains. As a result, Westerners are shutting themselves off from the rest of the world at a rapid pace.”

    If only they could join the community of shared future – hopefully on a later, non-nuclear, date.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 23:30

  • How Sick-Day Culture Differs Around The World
    How Sick-Day Culture Differs Around The World

    Just over half of South Koreans do not take sick leave.

    At least, that’s what the results of a survey of adults aged 18 to 64 carried out by Statista as part of its Consumer Insights show.

    As Statista’s Martin Armstrong details below, another Asian country also displayed a high shares of people who said they had not taken sick leave in the previous 12 months, with Japan at 45 percent.

    In South Korea, employers are not obliged to grant their employees time off for non-work-related illnesses or injuries.

    Infographic: How Sick Day Culture Differs Around the World | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    At the other end of the scale, Australian respondents mirrored a different sick day culture, with only 14 percent reporting an absence-free 12 months.

    It’s a similar, if less pronounced, story in Germany, Sweden, Canada and the United States, where between 20 and 23 percent of respondents reported the same.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 22:45

  • Solutions Are Scary: Part 2 – Economic Rebellion And Black Markets
    Solutions Are Scary: Part 2 – Economic Rebellion And Black Markets

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    In the first article in this series I examined the issue of militias and the public taking its security into its own hands.  I did this because frankly, without security, you have nothing.  There are millions of people out there, each with their own pet concerns and many of these people think their primary issue is the secret silver bullet solution to everything.  It’s not.  Security comes first, everything else is secondary.  That said, the most important factor next to physical safety is economic preparedness.

    If you were to examine the entire spectrum of globalist policies and programs from the US to Europe to Asia, including climate controls and carbon credits, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), cashless societies, vaccine passports, biometrics, agricultural controls, the “Great Reset,” the Fourth Industrial Revolution, AI monitoring of transactions, etc. you will come to the same conclusion I have – Almost everything they do revolves around locking down and micromanaging trade and access to resources.

    Not just international trade and the import/export of resources, but ALL trade including the average person’s grocery purchases and private barter. If they get their way you won’t even be allowed to grow a garden in your backyard. Think I’m exaggerating? Just look at what happened during the attempted covid lockdowns – There were leftist state governments trying to deny people access to jobs and food without vaccination status, and at least one (Michigan) tried to stop people from buying garden seeds.

    In many places (including Hawaii), they tried to arrest people simply for being outside in parks and beaches. Keep in mind, it is nearly impossible to contract or transmit a virus in the outdoors where open air and sunlight actively kill diseases. Yet, the science was completely ignored in order to control people’s behavioral patterns, social interactions and economic participation.

    I have long argued that one of the primary purposes of the covid lockdowns was to acclimate the public to the idea of rationing – The government takeover of production and consumption as a means to bottleneck trade. Rationing erases any last vestiges of the free market and turns the buying of necessities into a privilege instead of a right. It was also an attempt to demonize the concept of prepping as a form of “hoarding.” In other words, if you planned ahead and bought food and medical supplies years in advance, you were a selfish person withholding valuable goods from others in dire need.

    I think the chaotic flurry of activity during 2020 and 2021 had a lot of people confused; many have forgotten how incredibly close we came to full authoritarianism, including total economic tyranny.

    The purpose of economic controls is obvious: If you control people’s access to supplies and income then they are far less likely to rebel against you when you turn the screws and take their freedoms. This has been the strategy of every communist/socialist regime around the world since the 20th Century, and was a mainstay of feudal empires in the Middle Ages. The process of trade controls is at the core of the agenda of our modern day oligarchy – Ruling at the barrel of a gun is not as viable a strategy today (at least for now), so, they are opting to used indirect methods to gain compliance until the population can be completely disarmed.

    This trend forces the liberty minded to adopt alternative economic systems. If we do not, then we will not be able to maintain our ability to fight back against authoritarianism. If you can’t feed yourself, then you can’t fight. But what would these alternative systems look like?

    Essentially, they would be black markets. Study the tactics of gun runners and drug dealers of the past several decades and the alternative economy of the future will probably look similar, though on a much larger scale. Most of what we do will eventually be treated as illicit unless it is specifically sanctioned by local or state governments, but this will not stop centralized authorities from doing everything they can to shut down private production and trade.

    Then there is the issue of economic collapse, which we are already beginning to experience in the form of a stagflation crisis. Trust me, it’s going to get a lot worse in the next couple of years, so establishing alternatives today should be our top priority. If your currency is consistently losing value, prices are rising and you have to work harder everyday to attain the same amount of resources then the end game will be slavery and servitude – Unless you can walk away from the broken economy.

    Here are the steps that would be necessary to defeat the socialization of trade, and all of them will require a certain level of risk.

    Localized Resource Production And Taking Back The “Commons”

    Large groups of people in counties and states will have to organize the extraction of vital resources from areas typically managed by the federal government. Meaning, if your state produces a lot of oil, or timber, or coal, or copper, or steel, etc., then the production will have to focus on domestic markets rather than foreign export. Americans either at the state or county level will need to ignore federal restrictions on resource management that favor large corporations and create a supply chain for domestic use only.

    The more groups at the county and state level do this, the larger the resource network will become and the harder it will be for federal or global interests to shut down wider production of goods and services. If you want to bring back an economy of independent producers and tradesman in the US, it all starts with localized resources and the end of access for government protected corporations that siphon wealth out of communities.

    Barter Markets

    I’ve been writing about the value of barter markets as a means of rebellion for almost 20 years now, and I continue to believe that this tactic is an incredible tool for defeating economic tyranny. The bottom line is this, though: Barter markets need producers in order to stay viable. They need people who make things, grow things, fix things and teach things. It can’t just be about trading goods you already have on hand; you have to be willing to add value to the market by creating useful items and services.

    Barter markets can operate on a small neighborhood scale up to a county level, while states can trade with each other to stockpile vital commodities. All of this, though, would have to act as a stopgap because barter relies on an erratic value system – Any item or service is going to be worth something different to each person, making standardized prices difficult. In the end, some kind of universal trade mechanism (currency) will have to be introduced that functions outside the failing dollar system and separate from CBDCs.

    Alternative Currency System

    Yes, this concept has been discussed at great length from every angle within the liberty movement for years. Most of the talk has revolved around cryptocurrencies, though, which I view as a distraction from legitimate solutions. Almost no one you run into on a daily basis owns or trades crypto; why would they when it is a currency based in virtual reality? People want the option to hold their buying power in their hand, to know that their wealth is tangible.

    This means a convertible currency mechanism, either a cryptocurrency or physical note that is backed by a commodity or a basket of commodities that are held in escrow safely and securely. These commodities would have to have storage capacity and be relatively portable; gold, silver and copper, wheat, oil, rice, and so on. A basket averaging out relative values can be used to determine buying power of the new currency.

    Of course, such a system would have to be developed at the state level. It’s unlikely that counties and cities will have the resources to create such a system on their own. Though, localized script might become common in smaller towns if they are highly organized. This is an idea that needs to be pursued now, BEFORE an economic collapse and dollar collapse play out.

    A “Reset” Of The Tax And Corporate Model

    If taxes are to exist at all, they should be limited to the local level and the benefits of those taxes should be readily visible to the local population. Federal income taxes should not exist (they didn’t exist permanently until the formation of the Federal Reserve Bank from 1913-1916). They only serve to feed the authoritarian apparatus and grow government ever larger. Federal operations, if they are to exist at all, should be funded through tariff’s on foreign goods as was the practice in the US decades ago.

    Corporate charters should no longer exist. Corporations are a socialist concept given protection and special treatment from governments. They should be replaced by legal partnerships and no longer be treated as “too big to fail.” Also, when business management knowingly commits a crime, they should be prosecuted, not protected by limited liability.

    The tax model and the corporate model are both massive drains on the modern economic system. They disrupt the buying power and the production power of the average citizen, thereby keeping entrepreneurs from advancing due to rigged competition and dragging down the consumer with steady wealth depletion.

    If we are to save the economy, or build any kind of functional alternative, then these two millstones will have to be removed from our collective necks.

    Decentralization Prevents Genocide

    The greater issue at hand is what happens when governments and oligarchies are allowed to wield centralized authority over resources.  Usually, the end result is the exploitation of those resources as a weapon to punish part of the population or all of the population until they submit.  Often, genocide is treated as a viable option.

    Looking at the communist engineered famines in Soviet Russia or Maoist China, we can see the same elements forming today in the west.  The difference is that we have historic reference and the means to prevent it from happening again.  Make no mistake, there are psychopaths in leadership today that have no qualms whatsoever in using food or economic access as leverage against the people that oppose them.  We saw them try it during covid, and they are going to keep trying under the guise of climate change.

    But really, these are only mechanisms for garnering popular acceptance of socialized resources.  “We’re all in this together…right?”  No, we’re not, and the notion of sacrifice for the greater good is a farce created by parasites trying to convince the host that the bloodletting and feeding is “moral” and necessary.  These parasites serve no purpose.  The collectivists serve no purpose.  There are numerous ways for the economy and society to function happily and successfully without them and their centralized agenda.

    But to get rid of them we have to first protect ourselves, and establishing a solid alternative trade framework is a major step towards eliminating the parasites forever.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 22:00

  • US Dominates World University Rankings
    US Dominates World University Rankings

    The latest global university ranking has been released by Times Higher Education, putting the UK’s Oxford University at the top of the pile once again.

    Infographic: The Best Universities in the World | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    While the UK features quite heavily at the sharp end of the list, it’s the United States that utterly dominates, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong illustrates in the following infographic.

    Infographic: The U.S. Dominates the World University Ranking | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Based on five indicators (teaching, research environment, research quality, international outlook and industry), the U.S. has an incredible 19 universities inside the top 30 – compared to the UK’s five.

    China has the third most institutions in this part of the ranking, with Tsinghua University and Peking University in 12th and 14th place, respectively.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 21:25

  • A Climate Of Fear
    A Climate Of Fear

    Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

    The medical, media, and political elites’ focus has shifted from facts to fomenting and magnifying fear.

    In Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first inaugural address in 1933, the new president told a nation in the depths of the Great Depression that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

    Those words were true and rightfully spoken at that time. Roosevelt knew that fear is a powerful emotion that limits our ability to reason, act wisely, and work together. It’s also an emotion that’s contagious and not easily diminished or dissipated.

    The Power of Fear to Fragment Society

    Unfortunately, Roosevelt’s words are even more applicable today.

    On a personal level, decisions made under the emotional duress of fear are rarely the best ones and often the worst. Fear can bring out the best in us, but can often bring out the worst. That’s more likely to occur the more fragmented a society becomes. Fear among different groups of people creates an us-versus-them context in the minds of individuals, or even an “every-man-for-himself” attitude, which pits one group against another or even each of us against each other.

    Now elevate that sense of fear to the level of the national electorate. A people or a nation that’s paralyzed with fear makes rash decisions based on their fears of what could happen, not necessarily what the current situation truly is. When that happens, a society can quickly degenerate, where our base instincts determine our behavior in a law-of-the-jungle social environment.

    Roosevelt knew this, as do our leaders today. The difference is that today, rather than seeking to dispel fear, our political and media elites create it, expand it, and revel in it. Rather than promote hope and strength of character in us, in a Roosevelt- or even a Reagan-like fashion, they traffic in fear and its fellow traveler social division in order to fragment our society.

    It’s the old but effective divide-and-conquer strategy, and sadly, it works far too well. The mechanism for divide and conquer is the constant drumbeat of the Big Lie, which is also a tried and true method for controlling society. It was first practiced and perfected by Joseph Goebbels in Nazi Germany using the mass media, but has been successfully used by the USSR and every other communist and dictatorial regime in the world since the 1930s.

    Social Media Is Magnitudes More Powerful Than Legacy Media

    The difference today is the massive and pervasive presence of social media. Its reach and social saturation throughout society are magnitudes greater than have ever been possible before. What’s more, our political and media elites create and exaggerate fear without even mentioning the word. “Fear” is driven into our collective psyches under the guise of our government keeping us “safe,” while demonizing anyone who challenges that narrative.

    The repetition by the media and the pharmaceutical industry of how to stay safe from COVID-19 always involves more drugs and less freedom. That’s by design. The elites that run society know that once enough of our friends, neighbors, coworkers, and others with whom we interact become more fearful than rational, they’re easily manipulated and divided into confrontational groups.

    Does that sound like a conspiracy theory?

    Yes, it probably does, but it’s also how the Stasi, the East German security agency, turned virtually every neighbor into an informant. The result was that people were fearful of doing anything that could be construed as being against the communist East German government. In light of what we’ve been through the last three years—and what looks to be on the horizon—the conspiracy theory accusation has lost its sting.

    From Conspiracy Theory to Fact

    Recall, for example, how those who received the COVID-19 vaccine turned against those who remained unvaccinated. The contrast and social division couldn’t have been clearer or more deliberate. Vaccinated people were characterized by the media and government agency spokespeople as selfless, smarter, and better human beings than those who refused the vaccine.

    On the flip side, the “anti-vaxxers,” as they came to be called, were publicly derided by the medical, pharmaceutical, media, and government elites. They were accused of being low-intelligence conspiracy theory nuts who wouldn’t or couldn’t “follow the science,” even when they followed the science from experts such as Robert Malone, one of the inventors of the mRNA technology, and other medical doctors in Europe and Asia, including former Pfizer Vice President Dr. Michael Yeadon, all of whom were de-platformed from mainstream media and social media.

    In fact, any “alternative” remedy to the experimental and highly dangerous mRNA vaccines, such as ivermectin, was summarily dismissed, even though nations that used ivermectin had the lowest mortality rates. As noted above, many media personalities and even medical experts with contrary opinions were silenced, shamed, and shunted into professional oblivion, being substituted by compliant replacements. That practice continues to this day, with Russell Brand being the latest example of being de-monetized by YouTube.

    In light of vaccine injuries and deaths, and the staggering profits that vaccines have delivered to the pharmaceutical industry, the number of people who believe the mainstream media, the government, and in the vaccines, is much smaller today than three years ago.

    Conspiracy theory narratives have become conspiracy facts.

    The Endgame of Fear

    So, what’s the endgame of promoting and enforcing a climate of fear throughout society?

    It’s simple. Fearful people are far more compliant and, therefore, are easily controlled, pacified, monitored, and dehumanized. Next thing you know, we’ll all be eating bugs and liking it.

    The antidote to fear, of course, is freedom and access to real and contrary information so that each person can make up his or her own mind. The encouragement, enablement, and empowerment of private individuals to exercise informed judgment about their health and their livelihoods are also part of the solution. A vibrant, thinking, and active society of informed individuals isn’t nearly as vulnerable to the polarizing climate of fear our elites are foisting upon us.

    In short, to live in fear is to live in bondage.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 20:50

  • These Are The World's Top Diamond-Mining Countries, By Carats & Value
    These Are The World’s Top Diamond-Mining Countries, By Carats & Value

    Only 22 countries in the world engage in rough diamond production – also known as uncut, raw or natural diamonds – mining for them from deposits within their territories.

    This chart, by Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao and Sam Parker illustrates the leaders in rough diamond production by weight and value. It uses data from Kimberly Process (an international certification organization) along with estimates by Dr. Ashok Damarupurshad, a precious metals and diamond specialist in South Africa.

    ℹ️ Carat is the unit of measurement for the physical weight of diamonds. One carat equals 0.200 grams, which means it takes over 2,265 carats to equal 1 pound.

    Rough Diamond Production, By Weight

    Russia takes the top spot as the world’s largest rough diamond producer, mining close to 42 million carats in 2022, well ahead of its peers.

    Russia’s large lead over second-place Botswana (24.8 million carats) and third-ranked Canada (16.2 million carats) indicates that the country’s diamond production is circumventing sanctions due to the difficulties in tracing a diamond’s origin.

    Here’s a quick breakdown of rough diamond production in the world.

    Rank Country Rough Diamond
    Production (Carats)
    1 🇷🇺 Russia 41,923,910
    2 🇧🇼 Botswana 24,752,967
    3 🇨🇦 Canada 16,249,218
    4 🇨🇩 DRC 9,908,998
    5 🇿🇦 South Africa 9,660,233
    6 🇦🇴 Angola 8,763,309
    7 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe 4,461,450
    8 🇳🇦 Namibia 2,054,227
    9 🇱🇸 Lesotho 727,737
    10 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone 688,970
    11 🇹🇿 Tanzania 375,533
    12 🇧🇷 Brazil 158,420
    13 🇬🇳 Guinea 128,771
    14 🇨🇫 Central
    African Republic    		 118,044
    15 🇬🇾 Guyana 83,382
    16 🇬🇭 Ghana 82,500
    17 🇱🇷 Liberia 52,165
    18 🇨🇮 Cote D’Ivoire 3,904
    19 🇨🇬 Republic of Congo 3,534
    20 🇨🇲 Cameroon 2,431
    21 🇻🇪 Venezuela 1,665
    22 🇲🇱 Mali 92
      Total 120,201,460

    Note: South Africa’s figures are estimated.

    As with most other resources, (oil, gold, uranium), rough diamond production is distributed unequally. The top 10 rough diamond producing countries by weight account for 99.2% of all rough diamonds mined in 2022.

    Diamond Mining, by Country

    However, higher carat mined doesn’t necessarily mean better value for the diamond. Other factors like the cut, color, and clarity also influence a diamond’s value.

    Here’s a quick breakdown of diamond production by value (USD) in 2022.

    Rank Country Rough Diamond
    Value (USD)
    1 🇧🇼 Botswana $4,975M
    2 🇷🇺 Russia $3,553M
    3 🇦🇴 Angola $1,965M
    4 🇨🇦 Canada $1,877M
    5 🇿🇦 South Africa $1,538M
    6 🇳🇦 Namibia $1,234M
    7 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe $424M
    8 🇱🇸 Lesotho $314M
    9 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone $143M
    10 🇹🇿 Tanzania $110M
    11 🇨🇩 DRC $65M
    12 🇧🇷 Brazil $30M
    13 🇱🇷 Liberia $18M
    14 🇨🇫 Central
    African Republic    		 $15M
    15 🇬🇾 Guyana $14M
    16 🇬🇳 Guinea $6M
    17 🇬🇭 Ghana $3M
    18 🇨🇲 Cameroon $0.25M
    19 🇨🇬 Republic of Congo $0.20M
    20 🇨🇮 Cote D’Ivoire $0.16M
    21 🇻🇪 Venezuela $0.10M
    22 🇲🇱 Mali $0.06M
      Total $16,290M

    Note: South Africa’s figures are estimated. Furthermore, numbers have been rounded and may not sum to the total.

    Thus, even though Botswana only produced 59% of Russia’s diamond weight in 2022, it had a trade value of nearly $5 billion, approximately 1.5 times higher than Russia’s for the same year.

    Another example is Angola, which is ranked 6th in diamond production, but 3rd in diamond value.

    Both countries (as well as South Africa, Canada, and Namibia) produce gem-quality rough diamonds versus countries like Russia and the DRC whose diamonds are produced mainly for industrial use.

    Which Regions Produce the Most Diamonds in 2022?

    Unsurprisingly, Africa is the largest rough diamond producing region, accounting for 51% of output by weight, and 66% by value.

    Rank Region Share of Rough
    Diamond Production (%)    		 Share of Rough
    Diamond Value (%)
    1 Africa 51.4% 66.4%
    2 Europe 34.9% 32.9%
    3 North America 13.5% 52.8%
    4 South America 0.2% 2.4%

    However diamond mining in Africa is a relatively recent phenomenon, fewer than 200 years old. Diamonds had been discovered—and prized—as far back as 2,000 years ago in India, later on spreading west to Egyptian pharaohs and the Roman Empire.

    By the start of the 20th century, diamond production on a large scale took off: first in South Africa, and decades later in other African countries. In fact between 1889–1959, Africa produced 98% of the world’s diamonds.

    And in the latter half of the 20th century, the term blood diamond evolved from diamonds mined in African conflict zones used to finance insurgency or crime.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 20:15

  • 11 Assumptions About The Future
    11 Assumptions About The Future

    Authored by Matt Smith via InternationalMan.com,

    If you watch our podcast Doug Casey’s Take, you already know. We’re in the middle of a complex and destructive phase full of unknowns.

    Our goal with The Phyle is to focus on solutions. To make progress, we must clearly articulate the problem.

    Amidst this chaotic phase, it’s impossible to predict even the near future. The best we can do is form a hypothesis and orient our actions around it.

    Today I’m going to lay out my process and conclusions. I hope that they will be as useful to you as they have been to me.

    Assumptions

    We’ve been taught that assumptions are bad. They make an “ass” out of “u” and “me”. But, that’s not always true. I developed a set of assumptions about the future to build a framework of understanding. I use that framework to identify what IS in my control and what is NOT in my control.

    The things outside our control, we can stop worrying about. They’re not up to us. Instead, our concern is what IS in our control and all our energy and resources should be dedicated there.

    Before I get to the assumptions I’m operating under. Let me say – They are assumptions not predictions. I could be wrong. Hell – I hope I’m wrong. But with nearly three years of the “Great Reset” under our belt, I bet you’ll agree – they have merit.

    None of this should be taken as a blackpill. No problem can be solved without sober identification and acceptance. of the nature of the challenge. That’s all we’re doing here.

    With that in mind, here are the 11 assumptions I’m using today to guide my actions.

    1. Less Freedom of movement. There will be more effort so to restrict and regulate our freedom of movement. From Vax passports to increased visa requirements and 15-min city initiatives – a grid is being constructed to regulate our freedom of movement.

    2. A CBDC is coming. Cash will be eliminated. How restrictive it may end up being, I don’t know. But, CBDC is a foregone conclusion. Timing? BIS publishes estimates of 14 retail CBDC and 9 wholesale by 2030. And there are indications that the major economies are working to be ready to deploy by 2025.

    3. The digital ID is already here. Biometrics are the future. If you have a government issued ID associated with your photograph, you are in the system already. How the ID is deployed and enforced is the only question.

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    4. GFC 2.0 and/or the Greater Depression. Timing is hard. But, can any thinking person imagine how the outcome can be avoided altogether. Simon Hunt suggests a market pullback of up to 30% between now and early 2024 followed by a pump and a deflationary wipeout in 2025.

    5. Most of my financial assets will disappear at some point. Inflation, bank bail-in, market wipe out, or Great Taking. I don’t know the cause, but I assume physical assets are where I need to be, ultimately.

    6. Increasing crime & disorder. You’ve seen the videos. Whether, driven by economic desperation, mass migration, the inversion of law, or in the name of social justice. Crime and disorder will grow and lead to greater physical threats to our lives and property from our fellow man. This makes urban environments, especially but not exclusively, a real risk.

    7. Supply constraints are increasing around all commodities – from food to energy. Tight supplies are showing up everywhere. Live Cattle, long dormant, hit an all-time high recently. Oil Prices are up 30% in the last three months. 40% of Argentina’s wheat crop is in poor to fair condition and protectionist policies are on the rise globally.

    8. WW3 is coming. A good case can be made that it’s already begun. The Army War College recently published a study suggesting that the All Volunteer Force had reached the end of its useful life. With the military struggling with recruiting, conscription is likely at some point.

    9. Censorship and Digital Control will enter a new phase. Deplatforming, de-banking, shadow banning, and social media account suspensions will increase. Centralized digital services of all kinds should be considered suspect and, very likely, dangerous to use in the future.

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    UN Chief calls “dis-information” a clear and present global threat.

    10. The US election – regardless of the outcome – is an inflection point and potentially a flash point. IF it happens, the outcome will not be accepted by half of the country. I’ve heard from more than one source, publicly and privately, that there may not be a 2024 election. Who knows? We can be sure of is that running up to and shortly after the election, things could get wild. In advance of the 2020 election we had Covid and BLM. Shortly after, J6 and state overreach. What will 2024 bring

    11. There is a war happening today. It’s a war on us. The primary battleground is within the sphere of 5GW – informational/psychological. Where I’ve been wrong in the last three years, it’s been in my assumption that kinetic coercion would be utilized. As we can see, much progress has been made in the Great Reset without the need for kinetic tactics. For most of this cycle, they will rely on this same approach. If/When we see a move toward kinetic force, we should be alarmed because we will have entered a new and more dangerous phase.

    Do you disagree with any of my assumptions? Did I miss anything? Let me know.

    I see all of the assumptions as “Out of my control”. They may not come to pass, but whether they do or not is not up to me. Of course, I’ll continue to speak out against them. If enough of us do, it may help. Possibly.

    Since these unfortunate outcomes are out of my control, I don’t worry about them. And free from the burden of unsolvable problems, I can fully devote my energy and resources to what IS within my control.

    Members of The Phyle have been doing exactly that over the last year. Much progress has been made. And there’s much more we can do. Let’s focus there.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 19:40

  • Biden Embarrassingly Reverses Plan To Defund Schools With Archery & Hunting Programs
    Biden Embarrassingly Reverses Plan To Defund Schools With Archery & Hunting Programs

    The White House told Fox News that President Biden is expected to sign legislation overturning his administration’s previous decision to defund hunter and archery programs at schools nationwide. 

    A White House spokesperson said Biden will support the Protecting Hunting Heritage and Education Act that ensures proper funding via the Department of Education for elementary and secondary school hunting and archery programs. This comes after the anti-Second Amendment administration withheld funding for these programs earlier this year. 

    Last week, the US Congress unanimously passed The Protecting Hunting Heritage and Education Act. 

    The bipartisan legislation passed unanimously in the Senate on Wednesday evening and passed the House in a 424-1 vote one night prior. The bill had been championed by both Republican and Democratic lawmakers who said a 2022 gun control law had been misinterpreted by the administration to restrict students’ access to enrichment programs like hunting safety, archery and even culinary classes. -Fox News

    “The bill had been championed by both Republican and Democratic lawmakers who said a 2022 gun control law had been misinterpreted by the administration to restrict students’ access to enrichment programs like hunting safety, archery and even culinary classes,” Fox News noted. 

    … we’re sure the administration “misinterpreted” the gun control law as these anti-gunners wage war on law-abiding/tax-paying gun owners while only emboldening criminals through disastrous social justice reforms that have triggered a crime tsunami across failed progressive metro areas nationwide. 

    “Thankfully, President Biden saw the political writing on the wall after getting humiliated by an overwhelming vote of disapproval in the House. So, he has announced that he will sign this bill into law. But we all know that the embarrassing vote in the House could have been easily avoided if he simply wasn’t so hellbent on attacking guns and our heritage everywhere he possibly can. Gun Owners of America is proud to have played a role in ensuring our children can continue to participate in the quality hunter education and shooting sports programs that they very much enjoy,” Erich Pratt, the senior vice president of Gun Owners of America, told us. 

    Remember, GOA was one of the first to bring to light the Biden administration’s reckless war on firearms that targeted archery and shooting sports in K-12 schools (read: Biden Targets Schools: Pulls Plug On Archery & Hunting Programs). 

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    Children have become responsible hunters and firearm owners through these programs that have existed for decades. Hunting and archery programs will continue to be a permanent fixture at schools. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 19:05

  • Is The US Military Laying The Groundwork To Reinstitute The Draft?
    Is The US Military Laying The Groundwork To Reinstitute The Draft?

    Authored by Zachary Yost via The Mises Institute,

    The most recent edition of the US Army War College’s academic journal includes a highly disturbing essay on what lessons the US military should take away from the continuing war in Ukraine.

    By far the most concerning and most relevant section for the average American citizen is a subsection entitled “Casualties, Replacements, and Reconstitutions” which, to cut right to the chase, directly states, “Large-scale combat operations troop requirements may well require a reconceptualization of the 1970s and 1980s volunteer force and a move toward partial conscription.”

    An Industrial War of Attrition Would Require Vast Numbers of Troops

    The context for this supposed need to reinstate conscription is the estimate that were the US to enter into a large-scale conflict, every day it would likely suffer thirty-six hundred casualties and require eight hundred replacements, again per day. The report notes that over the course of twenty years in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US suffered fifty thousand casualties, a number which would likely be reached in merely two weeks of large-scale intensive combat.

    The military is already facing an enormous recruiting shortfall. Last year the army alone fell short of its goal by fifteen thousand soldiers and is on track to be short an additional twenty thousand this year. On top of that, the report notes that the Individual Ready Reserve, which is composed of former service personnel who do not actively train and drill but may be called back into active service in the event they are needed, has dropped from seven hundred thousand in 1973 to seventy-six thousand now.

    Prior to the Ukraine war, the fad theory in military planning was the idea of “hybrid warfare,” where the idea of giant state armies clashing on the battlefield requiring and consuming vast amounts of men and material was viewed as out of date as massed cavalry charges. Instead, these theorists argued that even when states did fight, it would be via proxies and special operations and would look more like the past twenty years of battling nonstate actors in the hills of Afghanistan. In a recent essay in the Journal of Security Studies, realist scholar Patrick Porter documents the rise of this theory and the fact that it is obviously garbage given the return of industrial wars of attrition.

    As military planners have woken up from the fevered dream of imagining that modern war consisted of chasing the Taliban through the hills with complete and overwhelming airpower, they have similarly started to wake up to the idea that industrial war has vast manpower requirements and that seemingly the only way to fill these requirements is by forcing young people into the ranks. That has certainly been the only way Ukraine has been able to maintain its forces, although it has required increasingly draconian measures to do so as conscripts face attrition rates of 80 to 90 percent by Ukraine’s own admission.

    Obviously, the reintroduction of conscription is an extremely disturbing prospect given America’s propensity for getting involved in meaningless wars that accomplish nothing other than empowering our enemies, killing and maiming our soldiers, and wasting vast resources.

    This is especially true given the unstated assumptions implicit in this paper. Who is the enemy that would be inflicting thirty-six hundred casualties a day? A war in the Pacific against China would primarily be a naval and airpower war with an extremely limited role for the army (even the current inept regime seems unlikely to be stupid enough to try and wage a land war against China) which obviously leaves Russia as the main adversary that would require the US Army to round up conscripts to feed into the attritional meat grinder.

    There Is No American National Interest That Requires a Standing Army

    However, while these manpower shortages may be a valid concern for someplace like Russia, Ukraine, or Poland, we here in the US are quite fortunate that we have no compelling national interest that would require us to engage in an industrial war of attrition in Eastern Europe.

    To the extent we are at risk of becoming involved in such a disastrous mess, it is entirely of our own doing via the entangling alliance known as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and our leader’s own messianic gnostic crusades for democracy or whatever pseudo religious ideology is presently in vogue.

    The US is blessed as being the most secure power in history. We are the hegemon of the western hemisphere, with vast moats in the form of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans that no other state has the capability to project military force across, and all our neighbors are weak and relatively friendly. We are not at any risk of being forced to fight an industrial land war on the home front. Any war the army would be used in would be as an expeditionary force fighting in the eastern hemisphere, where we have no compelling defensive need to do so.

    From the beginning of the US, there have been warnings against the dangers of both entangling alliances and standing armies. The best solution to the military recruitment crisis is to simply abolish the standing army and not plan to wage a costly and pointless war on the other side of the planet that would result in trillions of dollars down the drain and who knows how many tens or hundreds of thousands of Americans being killed, maimed, and psychologically scarred.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 18:30

  • "More Deceit": Gaetz Rages Over McCarthy-Ukraine Side Deal To Pass Stopgap
    “More Deceit”: Gaetz Rages Over McCarthy-Ukraine Side Deal To Pass Stopgap

    Update (2155ET): Following the Senate’s passage of the Continuing Resolution, Rep. Matt Gaetz took to Twitter, where he was enraged over a side deal made between Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the Democrats for Ukraine funding, which Gaetz says he “didn’t tell House Republicans” about until after the vote. 

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    Gaetz was responding to Punchbowl News‘ Jake Sherman, who related a message from House Democratic leadership.

    “When the House returns, we expect Speaker McCarthy to advance a bill to the House Floor for an up-or-down vote that supports Ukraine, consistent with his commitment to making sure that Vladimir Putin, Russia and authoritarianism are defeated. We must stand with the Ukrainian people until victory is won.”

    Nine Senate Republicans voted against the bill; Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Mike Braun (R-Ind.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) and J.D Vance (R-Ohio).

    *  *  *

    Update (2109ET):  The Senate has voted 88-9 to pass the House’s Continuing Resolution stopgap funding bill, which stripped out funds for Ukraine, includes $16 billion for disaster relief, and will keep the US government running for another 45 days.

    Among the Senate “Yea” votes was Michael Bennet (D-CO), who was absolutely flipping his lid over the lack of Ukraine funding earlier in the day.

    The bill, which passed the House earlier in the day by a bipartisan vote of 335-91, was passed with just three hours to go before a shutdown.

    Just before the vote, Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) vowed to keep fighting for more US taxpayer dollars for Ukraine, saying that he and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have “agreed to continue fighting for more economic and security aid for Ukraine.”

    “We support Ukraine’s efforts to defend its sovereignty against Putin’s aggression,” said Schumer – to which McConnell said he’s “confident” that the Senate can pass more “urgent assistance to Ukraine later this year. But let’s be clear,” that the “alternative,” a shutdown, “would not just pause our progress on these important priorities, it would actually set them back.”

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    *  *  *

    Update (1755ET): After an afternoon of theatrics from Rep. Jamal Bowman (D-NY), it appears that the stopgap legislation to keep the government running through November 17 will now pass at the 11th hour.

    According to the Wall Street Journal, the bill to keep the government funded past 12:01 Sunday includes $16 billion in disaster relief, but does not include Ukraine funds.

    The House voted 335-91 for the funding measure, which includes $16 billion in disaster relief but omits aid for Ukraine. It also excludes border-security measures sought by Republicans. The margin exceeded the two-thirds majority needed to clear the bill through the House, which considered the legislation under special procedures requiring a supermajority of votes. All but one Democrat voted in favor of the measure, while nearly half of Republicans voted against it. -WSJ

    While White House officials say President Biden supports the measure, the Senate has reportedly been lax in quickly taking up the measure late Saturday, raising the possibility of further malarkey.

    Developing…

    *  *  *

    (Update 1655ET): So let’s get this straight. In the home stretch of negotiations over the House’s GOP stopgap bill – while Democrats were actively trying to stall the vote so they could actually read it – a widely reported phenomenon, Rep. Jamal Bowman (D-NY) pulls the fire extinguisher.

    His excuse is that he wasn’t actually trying to stall the the vote, and that he’s essentially an idiot…

    “Congressman Bowman did not realize he would trigger a building alarm as he was rushing to make an urgent vote. The Congressman regrets any confusion,” said a spokesperson.

    Yes. Because this happens all the time.

    MSNBC breathlessly repeats the Simple Jack defense.

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    House Speaker Kevin McCarthy capitalized on the incident, comparing Bowman to a January 6th insurrectionist.

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    As we noted below… Bowman used to be a public school principal before he was elected to Congress, who rallied against standardized testing, at a private school he founded that has a 27% literacy rate, so… maybe?

    Then again, he would be no stranger to fire drills, no?

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    *  *  *

    House before the House finally approved a ‘clean’ stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown (which has since been sent to the Senate for consideration before the midnight funding deadline), Socialist Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) was caught pulling the fire alarm in a House office building Saturday in order to try and delay a vote on ta House GOP stopgap spending bill.

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    The incident in the Cannon Building was caught on camera and confirmed by several witnesses, Politico reports.

    “This is the United States Congress, not a New York City high school. To pull the fire alarm to disrupt proceedings when we are trying to draft legislation to AVERT A SHUTDOWN is pathetic…even for members of the socialist squad,” Staten Island GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

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    “Rep Jamaal Bowman pulled a fire alarm in Cannon this morning,” House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil wrote on X. “An investigation into why it was pulled is underway.”

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    According to Bowman spox Emma Simon, “Congressman Bowman did not realize he would trigger a building alarm as he was rushing to make an urgent vote. The Congressman regrets any confusion.”

    In other words, he’s claiming to be too stupid to have known what he did – and don’t believe your lying eyes!

    Granted, Bowman used to be a public school principal before he was elected to Congress, who rallied against standardized testing, at a private school he founded that has a 27% literacy rate, so…

    Needless to say, the memes are already flying.

    .

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    Meanwhile, the House cleared the ‘clean’ stopgap bill without funding for Ukraine or the border, by a vote of 335-91. One Democrat and 90 Republicans voted against the measure.

    *  *  *

    Update: (1335ET): With a government shutdown just hours away, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has turned to Democrats for help passing a temporary bill, after House Freedom Caucus members dug their heels in over no funds for Ukraine.

    “What I am asking, Republicans and Democrats alike, put your partisanship away,” said McCarthy. “Focus on the American public.”

    McCarthy needs a two-thirds majority to pass their Continuing Resolution (CR), which would require a significant number of Democrats – who have strongly supported more Ukraine aid – to cross the aisle.

    The House GOP bill would be a ‘clean’ Continuing Resolution, which won’t include Ukraine funding or border assistance.

    “We will put a clean funding stopgap on the floor to keep government open for 45 days for the House and Senate to get their work done,” said McCarthy following a meeting. “We will also, knowing what had transpired through the summer, the disasters in Florida, the horrendous fire in Hawaii, and also the disasters in California and Vermont. We will put the supplemental portion that the president asked for in disaster there too.”

    “Keeping the government open while we continue to do our work to end the wasteful spending and the wokeism and most important, secure our border,” McCarthy said.

    If the bill does not pass, Republicans plan to bring up several measures to mitigate the effects of a government shutdown, multiple members said. 

    Those include bills to continue paying service members and extending authorization of the Federal Aviation Administration and National Flood Insurance Program, both of which are also set to expire at midnight unless Congress takes action. Republicans are also examining measures to continue pay for border patrol agents. –The Hill

    The Democrats, meanwhile, have been using parliamentary tactics to slow down the vote so they can more carefully read the GOP proposal.

    Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), one of the key holdouts in the House, called McCarthy’s bipartisan appeal “disappointing,” and said that McCarthy’s speakership is “on tenuous ground.”

    When asked what his next move will be, Gaetz said “I guess we’ll have to see how the vote goes.”

    What’s next?

    According to Goldman, there’s a 90% probability of a shutdown before the Oct. 1 deadline.

    That said, there will be three upcoming catalysts in the next few weeks that may result in passage.

    1) All members of the US military are due to be paid on Oct. 13, and a missed pay date would have serious political ramifications; there is a good chance the House will vote to reopen before or shortly after that date; 

    2) A few House Republicans have said they might bring a “motion to vacate” that would remove McCarthy as Speaker unless a majority of the House supports him. Whatever the outcome of such a vote, getting past it could set the stage for a reopening; 

    3) There are procedural moves (a “discharge petition” is the most frequently discussed) that Democrats can make to pass an extension of spending authority in the House over Speaker McCarthy’s objections. However, this would require support from at least 5 House Republicans (assuming that all Democrats sign on). This will not help avoid a shutdown, but could come into play over the next two weeks, as political pressure to reopen grows (particularly when combined with the first point on military pay). 

    In light of the above, Goldman doesn’t expect this to last more than 2-3 weeks, and that the Oct. 13 military pay date will become a focal point in the timeline.

    *  *  *

    Update (2157ET): It looks like the Senate isn’t willing to strip Ukraine funds from the continuing resolution. In a Friday night tweet, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said that the “misguided Senate bill has no path forward and is dead on arrival.”

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    Meanwhile, according to Punchbowl News‘ Jake Sherman and Josh Bresnahan, McCarthy is floating a CR that would last until Nov. 17 at FY2023 funding levels, which would not include border funds or Ukraine funding.

    *  *  *

    In an 11th hour Hail Mary in the hopes of averting a government shutdown, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced that the only way the House will pass a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government through October is to drop Ukraine funding.

    “I think if we had a clean one without Ukraine on it, we could probably be able to move that through,” McCarthy told CNN‘s Manu Raju.

    The comment comes hours after McCarthy lost a game of chicken with the House Freedom Caucus, failing to pass a CR which left McCarthy will few options to try and avert a shutdown in less than 36 hours. McCarthy was hoping that the House bill’s border security provisions would win over enough holdouts to pass.

    Meanwhile, the White House slammed the failed bill over the ‘elimination of 12,000 FBI agents,’ and ‘almost 1,000 ATF agents.’

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    Of note, House Republicans on Thursday narrowly passed the annual defense spending bill, but only after they removed $300 million in Ukraine aid from the legislation (which then cleared in a separate vote because a bunch of Democrats then voted).

    Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who failed twice last week to advance the bill to the floor, finally locked down enough Republican votes to pass the bill after the House stripped $300 million to arm Ukraine from the text.

    The separate bill carved out to allocate those funds for Kyiv passed Thursday in a 311-117 blowout bipartisan vote. Republicans had won a close procedural vote earlier in the day to separate the Ukraine money from the Pentagon bill, a move meant to flip a handful of GOP holdouts. –Politico

    Democrats framed the optics as Kremlin-friendly, with House Armed Services ranking Democrat Adam Smith saying “The Russians are good at propaganda… It will be played as America backing off of its commitment for Ukraine.”

    Republicans responded that by carving Ukraine out of the defense bill, it allows opponents of either measure (Ukraine aid or the defense bill) to voice their opinions on each independently.

    “Why don’t we make sure this gets through? I mean, I’m just mystified that this is somehow a problem,” said House Rules Chair Tom Cole (R-OK), according to Politico. “We guarantee you something you want is going to pass the House and you’re upset about it.”

    And now, McCarthy says there’s no way to avert a government shutdown unless the House, and the Senate, agree to nix Ukraine aid from the 30-day stopgap.

    Fire and Brimstone…

    On Friday, White House top economic adviser Lael Brainard said that a shutdown would pose an “unnecessary risk” to what he described as a resilient economy with moderating inflation.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen then chimed in, warning that all of Bidenomics could be negatively impacted.

    “The failure of House Republicans to act responsibly would hurt American families and cause economic headwinds that could undermine the progress we’re making,” Yellen said from Port of Savannah, Georgia, adding “A shutdown would impact many key government functions from loans to farmers and small businesses, to food and workplace safety inspections, to Head Start programs for children.

    “And it could delay major infrastructure improvements.”

    Goldman has predicted that a shutdown will last 2-3 weeks, and that a ‘quick reopening looks unlikely as political positions become more deeply entrenched.’ Instead, as political pressure to reopen the government builds, pay dates for active-duty military (Oct. 13 and Nov. 1) will become key dates to pay attention to.

    In addition, they think a shutdown could subtract 0.2pp from Q4 GDP growth for each week it lasts (adding the same to 1Q2024, assuming it’s over by then).

    What’s more, all data releases from federal agencies would be postponed until after the government reopens.

    More via Goldman:

    What are the odds the government shuts down?

    A shutdown this year has looked likely for several months, and we now think the odds have risen to 90%. The most likely scenario in our view is that funding will lapse after Sep. 30, leading to a shutdown starting Oct. 1. That said, a short-term extension cannot be entirely ruled out. In the event that Congress avoids a shutdown starting Oct. 1, we would still expect a shutdown at some point later in Q4.

    While there is likely sufficient support in both chambers of Congress to pass a short-term extension of funding—this is known as a “continuing resolution” (CR)—that is “clean” with no other provisions attached, the majority of that support would come from Democrats. The Senate is considering a CR that includes aid for disaster relief and Ukraine. House Republican leaders are under political pressure to pass a CR that includes Republican policy priorities that can pass with mainly or exclusively Republican support. At the moment, neither chamber looks likely to pass the other chamber’s CR.

    The outlook seemed bleak ahead of the debt limit deadline earlier this year, but Congress resolved it in time; why shouldn’t we expect a last-minute deal once again?

    The smaller economic hit from a shutdown puts less pressure on Republican leaders to override the objections of some in their party to reach a deal. Ahead of the debt limit deadline earlier this year, Republican leaders reached a deal over the objections of some in their party because the potential hit to the economy from an impasse would have been unpredictable and severe, and even lawmakers most strongly opposed to a compromise agreed that the debt limit must be raised. By contrast, the economic hit from a shutdown would be smaller and more predictable, as there have already been two protracted shutdowns over the last decade. While most lawmakers on both sides of the aisle would prefer to avoid a shutdown, both sides appear more willing to take the chance it occurs.

    *  *  *

    Stay tuned…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 17:57

  • Hunter Biden's Daughter Was Living In White House While Representing Peruvian Government
    Hunter Biden’s Daughter Was Living In White House While Representing Peruvian Government

    The Biden family may have some more explaining to do over their international affairs, after the NY Post reports that Naomi Biden (Hunter’s eldest daughter, not the grandchild Joe Biden mouth-kissed during the 2020 election), was living in the White House while representing the government of Peru in a legal case.

    According to a review of public records, the 29-year-old has been working for DC-based law firm Arnold & Porter since January 2021, the same month her grandfather was sworn in as the 46th US president, after interning for the firm in 2019.

    In September 2021, Naomi appeared in a legal filing disclosing her involvement in a case brought by Worth Capital Holdings 27, LLC, a Delaware firm which claimed that the country was interfering in the operation of their oil refinery located in the southern Amazon. Worth has sought $590 million in damages.

    Of note, Arnold & Porter specializes in foreign litigation, and has defended dozens of sovereign states – including Venezuela, Bulgaria and Hungary. Interestingly, the Post notes that Naomi doesn’t have a public page on the firm’s website, unlike other firm attorneys.

    Which begs the question, particularly in light of questions over the entire Biden family’s foreign dealings, should Naomi have registered under FARA (Foreign Agents Registration Act)? That would of course depend on the circumstances and extent of her work.

    “Everywhere we look it seems there are major conflicts of interest in which the Biden family leveraged their name, access, and patriarch’s power to benefit personal business dealings. All of this must continue to be investigated and exposed – perhaps Biden’s granddaughter should be the next person to come before the Oversight Committee,”

    In November 2022, Naomi Biden married another up-and-coming attorney, Peter Neal, at a ceremony at the White House.

    The Biden granddaughter lived at the first residence from August 2022 to March 2023. A rep for Naomi Biden insisted she only worked on the case for “three weeks” in September 2021 — and not while living at the White House.  -NY Post

    “Naomi Biden’s international arbitration work doesn’t include matters involving the United States government — she is a junior lawyer and a member of international arbitration teams involving private sector plaintiffs. She doesn’t discuss confidential client work with anyone inside or outside the White House,” a spokesman for Arnold & Porter told The Post, while the law firm wouldn’t say if Naomi had represented any other foreign nations since joining.

    The Post also notes that Naomi had quite the nice ride to the elite law firm – having attended the capital’s elite Sidwell Friends School in the summer of 2011 while Joe Biden was Vice President. She then worked as an aide for then-Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV).

    More recently, Naomi was pictured and videotaped posing with Burisma CEO Mykola Zlochevsky, and having a conversation with his daughter, Karina Zlochevsky.

    “She is very excited to join us. Maybe we can find her a job now that she’s graduating college,” Hunter Biden wrote to Burisma CFO, Vadym Pozharsky, according to emails from his abandoned laptop, the Post further reports.

    What a small world!

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 17:55

  • What Is The Top Priority Or Number One Concern Of Most Americans?
    What Is The Top Priority Or Number One Concern Of Most Americans?

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Think about the headline question at a personal level and also how you think the average person might answer.

    Image from YouTube video below.

    In answer to my lead question, I would expect a huge variety of opinions including but not limited to: Inflation, putting food on the table, rent, student loans, US debt, rising deficits, Social Security running out of money, broken political system, care of a sick or dying loved one, climate change, Trump, Biden, gas prices, crime, education, employment, unaffordable housing, saving for retirement, the UAW strike, auto repairs, home repairs, the cost of an auto, lack of saving, finding a job after college, credit card debt, and gasoline prices.

    That’s over 20 legitimate concerns off the top of my head. Assistance to Ukraine as the #1 top priority is one thing that would not have crossed my mind until I saw this Tweet.

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    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says “Providing assistance for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians is the number one priority for the United States right now, according to most Republicans“.

    Would assistance to Ukraine be your number one priority? Top 10? Top 20? On your list at all?

    Q: Are politicians that seriously out of touch with what people’s concerns are?

    A: Of course they are.

    It’s not just McConnell, or Republicans, or Democrats. It’s the whole stinking collective lot of them.

    They all make decisions based on their priorities, not yours, often based on which donors are giving them the most money for their election campaigns.

    CBO Debt to GDP Estimates

    Debt-to-GDP image from the Congressional Budget Office, annotations by Mish.

    Debt to GDP Alarm Bells Ring, Neither Party Will Solve This

    On September 7, I commented Debt to GDP Alarm Bells Ring, Neither Party Will Solve This

    US Debt held by the public is soaring out of sight. It’s even worse than it looks for reasons I explain.

    Yet, despite deficit spending and the national debt being enormous problems, I wonder how they would rate in a national poll.

    The last concern of those struggling to put food on the table, pay rent, take care of elderly parents, pay down credit card or student debt, or pay the bills in general, is sending $100 billion and counting to Ukraine.

    No One Will Fix This

    Compromise is always more spending for this in return for more spending on that.

    Bnd both parties want to spend more on the military.

    “Neither party will fix the deficits. Neither party will do anything about mounting debt. No one will do anything about anything because the political system is totally broken.” Mish

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 17:20

  • Victor Davis Hanson Blasts "The Most Politicalized & Weaponized 4-Star Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Ever"
    Victor Davis Hanson Blasts “The Most Politicalized & Weaponized 4-Star Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Ever”

    Via American Greatness,

    Victor Davis Hanson criticized Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, for Milley’s retirement speech in which he blasts “Trump without mentioning Trump.”

    “As Gen. Milley leaves office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, on his last day he goes out ranting about his loyalty to the Constitution and not  to a ‘dictator’ – blasting Trump without mentioning Trump, and thus trumping as it were Trump’s own excesses with those of his own,” Hanson posted on X.

    “So transits the most politicalized and weaponized 4-star Joint Chiefs of Staff since the office was created.”

    “Would that instead Milley had at least explained the 2021 historically disastrous flight from Kabul and defeat in Afghanistan, or the radical implementation of woke agendas into the Pentagon retention and promotion policies, or why he felt the illustrious and renown Professor Kendi, of current Boston University ‘Center for Antiracist Research’ infamy, should be required reading for the U.S. military at time when its recruitment is descending into historical lows and its deterrent reputation is seriously questioned,” posted Hanson.

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    In his speech at a Friday ceremony honoring his retirement, Milley said:

    “We don’t take an oath to a country. We don’t take an oath to a tribe. We don’t take an oath to a religion. We don’t take an oath to a king, or a queen, or a tyrant or dictator. We don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We don’t take an oath to an individual. We take an oath to the Constitution.”

    So what about Milley’s own “constitutional” legacy? Victor Davis Hanson asks:

    “Is it that an officer who deems his civilian President and Commander in Chief dangerous – as diagnosed by 4-star psychiatrist, state department diplomat, and now theater commander Milley – has a right to commandeer the chain of command, usurp powers that are expressly by law denied to him, and then take it on himself in a time of Chinese-American tensions to freelance, by contacting his communist counterpart to warn him about his own president’s diagnosed volatility,  and to reassure the hardened Stalinist that Dr/Gen. Milley will inform him first of any precipitate action from the White House.”

    Dictatorial much?

    Hanson suggests Americans ask the departing Milley, two questions:

    1) if Trump is reelected in 2024, will a retired General Milley, as did his retired 4-star colleagues in 2020, violate the Uniform Code of Military Justice and repeat his current charges against a second-term President Trump – matching the previous invective of his colleagues’ accusations of “liar”  or “Mussolini”?.

    And

    2) what would Milley have done had a subordinate like himself, say a 3-star general, decided that Gen. Mark Milley’s Beijing gambit and his arrogation of command powers that were not legally his own, posed a grave threat to the republic? And thus would such a 3-star call up theater commanders to warn them to resist Milley’s reckless orders and to report to him first, followed by his  phone call to the top Chinese PLA general to assure them that if Milley somehow gave an order deemed by the 3-star to be dangerously provocative, then he would not only not obey it but rather first warn the Chinese military of Milley’s unstable state of mind.

    Is that the kind of military Milley wishes to leave as his legacy, as he departs barking accusations at the moon?

    *  *  *

    In addition to being an American Greatness columnist, Hanson is a renowned American military historian, columnist, former classics professor, and scholar of ancient warfare. He is a distinguished fellow of the Center for American Greatness and the Martin and Illy Anderson Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Hanson has authored several books, including “The Second World Wars,” “The Case for Trump,” and the recently released “The Dying Citizen.” His insights and analyses on political and historical matters are widely respected and sought after in academic and media circles.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 16:10

  • Wheat Prices Record Most Consecutive Quarterly Declines Since GFC Meltdown 
    Wheat Prices Record Most Consecutive Quarterly Declines Since GFC Meltdown 

    Russia’s second consecutive bumper wheat harvest has cemented it as the top producer of the grain, with the surplus leading to a three-year low in prices, overshadowing any concerns about tensions in the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia. As the quarter ends on Friday, wheat prices are on track to record the longest quarterly slump in 14 years. While this development is favorable for consumers, traders must closely watch prices. 

    Bloomberg reports wheat futures in Chicago have tumbled about 11% in the past three months and are set for the fourth quarterly decline. Even though Russia terminated a safe-passage deal in July that allowed bulk carriers to export Ukraine’s grain via the Black Sea to the rest of the world, prices have remained under pressure – mainly because Russia has had a record bumper harvest. 

    “What the events around the start of the Ukraine conflict showed is that in this day and age, the world, by and large, has a way of getting grain to the people who need it,” said Michael Whitehead, the head of agribusiness insights at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. He continued, “This may be the new, low price level for wheat.”

    Bloomberg recently noted last year’s invasion of Ukraine, which “hobbled Ukraine’s food exports, helping cement Russia’s domination of the global wheat market. That’s reflected in record Russian shipments, as the nation’s traders overcome the financing and logistical challenges some faced in the aftermath of the invasion.”

    “We have seen wheat prices substantially decline basically as a result of Russia,” said Michael Magdovitz, senior commodity analyst at Rabobank.

    However, the Financial Times pointed out some “analysts warn that prices could rapidly rise if the war spills out across the Black Sea. Russia’s Black Sea ports handle about 70 percent of its wheat exports, making it a crucial artery for the global supply of grain.” These low prices could be a potential entry point for traders looking for an area of value. 

    The slide in wheat prices coincides with the UN’s global food price index, hitting lows not seen since the early days of the invasion. 

    This is a welcoming sign not just for inflation trends but also for consumers worldwide. 

    However, there are risks, as Morgan Stanley warned clients: El Nino could spark another “inflation shock.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 15:35

  • Arab Gulf State Demands Israel's Shadowy Nuclear Weapons Program Be Subject To IAEA Safeguards
    Arab Gulf State Demands Israel’s Shadowy Nuclear Weapons Program Be Subject To IAEA Safeguards

    Via The Cradle,

    Qatar has called for intensifying international efforts to subject all Israeli nuclear facilities to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards and for Israel to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

    The demand was put forward on Friday by the Chairman of Qatar’s National Committee for the Prohibition of Weapons, Abdulaziz Salmeen al-Jabri, at the annual general conference of the IAEA currently underway in Vienna.

    Image source: US Department of Defense

    Jabri stressed these were legitimate demands that had been confirmed by “international legitimacy resolutions [that were passed] half a century ago,” including “resolutions of the UN General Assembly [that have been passed] since 1974, [United Nations] Security Council Resolutions 487 of 1981 and 687 of 1991, numerous IAEA resolutions, and the resolution of the Review Conference of the Middle East Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1995.”

    He also said that bringing the Israeli nuclear program under international safeguards “is a prerequisite for establishing a nuclear-weapon-free zone in [West Asia].”

    “Confronting nuclear proliferation in [West Asia] is at the core of the tasks assigned to the IAEA,” he stressed.

    Estimates of Israel’s nuclear stockpile range between 80 and 400 warheads, which can be delivered via aircraft, submarine-launched cruise missiles, and the Jericho series of intermediate to intercontinental-range ballistic missiles.

    Its first deliverable nuclear weapon is thought to have been completed in late 1966 or early 1967, making it the sixth country in the world to have developed them.

    Israel has never openly tested its nuclear weapons nor signed the NPT, making it the world’s only unacknowledged nuclear power.

    “The boys in Tehran know Israel has 200, all targeted on Tehran,” the late former US state secretary Colin Powell wrote in a 2015 leaked email to business partner and democratic donor Jeffrey Leeds just months before Washington sealed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran – also known as the Iran nuclear deal.

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    While Israel and its vast nuclear arsenal have never been subjected to IAEA oversight, over a quarter of the 2,000 inspections carried out worldwide by IAEA in the past three years were conducted in Iran.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 15:00

  • Satanic Pedophile Extortion Cult Uncovered By FBI After NY Arrest
    Satanic Pedophile Extortion Cult Uncovered By FBI After NY Arrest

    A November 2021 arrest in Queens, New York led to the discovery of a satanic cult of pedophile extortionists known as 764, which has been linked to significant criminal activity around the globe. The organization, which goes byseveral aliases, was uncovered by the FBI while investigating alarming posts on social media made by 23-year-old Angel Almeida of Astoria, Queens, The Guardian reports.

    Prosecutors allege Almeida convinced a girl to cut herself, record the act on camera and send it to him. Photograph: Department of Justice

    Almeida was flagged to the FBI by an anonymous tipster who was concerned over his social media accounts, which contained images of violence against children and animals. In one post, he expressed support for Charleston mass-murderer Dylann Roof. Another post showed him talking around with a shotgun while wearing a “a skull mask and crossed bandoliers of rifle ammunition across his chest with a flag in the background featuring an Order of Nine Angles symbol.”

    Almeida served 18 months in prison for third degree burglary in 2018, and was arrested for being a felon in possession of a firearm. He was detained in Brooklyn’s metropolitan detention center. In February 2023, federal prosecutors filed a superseding indictment on child pornography and exploitation charges related to his involvement in the cult, as well as hundreds of thousands of digital files recovered from his residence.

    In new charges, Almeida is accused of coercing a teenage girl into having sex with an older man, and convincing another girl to cut herself on camera and send it to him.

    In one post, Almeida posts “For the 2k pedophile haters,” showing his finger over the trigger guard of a Taurus handgun.

    When the FBI searched his New York apartment, they found a 9mm handgun, ammunition, books pertaining to the Order of Nine Angles (a satanic occultist group). They also found a flag with the insignia of a US -9A offshoot, the Tempel ov Blood, according to a November 2021 detention memorandum.

    The most telling item was an O9A “blood covenant” featuring a blood-smeared drawing of a hooded figure with glowing red eyes surrounded with sigils for four O9A deities and the caption Vindex, Nythra, Satan and Abatu. At the bottom of the page is an oath: “A covenant signed in blood. May the DEVIL walk with you always – SATANAE MANIBUS” (“by Satan’s Hand” in Latin). Similar indicia have been found in possession of O9A-influenced killers in Britain and Canada. -The Guardian

    According to the agency, the group is “deliberately targeting minor victims on publicly available messaging platforms to extort them into recording or livestreaming acts of self-harm and producing child sexual abuse material.“

    Using manipulative tactics, the gang operated on several platforms, including Roblox, Discord, Twitch and SoundCloud – but the group’s main platform has been Telegram.

    764 uses “threats, blackmail and manipulation” to convince underage victims to record videos showing acts of self-harm, animal cruelty, sexual acts and even suicide. The footage is then circulated among members, who then further exert control over the victims. Members share “gore” videos depicting all sorts of horrific acts, in order “to gain notoriety and rise in status within their group.”

    Documents and sources familiar with 764 indicate the group is an offshoot of the Order of Nine Angles (O9A), a violent, subversive amalgam of esoteric Hitler worship, Satanism and Wiccan tenets that American authorities recognize as a terrorist ideology and that has been connected with murders and attempted terrorist attacks in countries including the US, Britain, Germany, Canada and Russia. -The Guardian

    In one case, a German teenager allegedly connected to the group was accused of murdering his foster family in Romania, according to Der Spiegel and Libertatea.

    Several books connected to satanism were also recovered.

    The Stain Account

    According to the detention memorandum:

    Law enforcement also reviewed the publicly accessible portions of an Instagram profile with the name “Stain_Lord_352” (the “Stain Account”). That review revealed that Almeida acknowledged that the account belonged to him, admitted to owning and took pictures with a firearm, posted pictures depicting violence against animals, and threatened violence against police if they attempted to apprehend him. For example, on or about November 2, 2021, Almeida posted on the Stain Lord Account a photograph of a masked individual holding a firearm with the same mask and Order of Nine Angles flag depicted in photographs on the Sargent Account, which also appears to be the same mask that Almeida purchased from Amazon in June 2021 and had shipped to his residence.

    Hardcore Kiddie Fiddler

    In November 2021, Almeida posted a photograph of an individual in front of a Nazi flag while wearing a shirt that reads “Kiddie Fiddler,” and standing in front of a sign that rads “I’M ADDICTED TO HARDCORE CHILD PORNOGRAPHY.”

    Earlier this month, Almeida was deemed fit for trial despite repeated violent behavior in the courtroom – including attempts to attack a DOJ staffer as well as his own court-appointed counsel, his fourth attorney since his 2021 arrest. His trial is currently scheduled for December 4. He faces a maximum sentence of life in prison.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 14:25

  • Time To End The Fed And Its Mismanagement Of Our Economy
    Time To End The Fed And Its Mismanagement Of Our Economy

    Authored by EJ Antoni and Peter St.Onge via The Epoch Times,

    Every major economic downturn of the last 110 years bears the mark of the Federal Reserve.

    In fact, as long as the Fed has been around, it has swung the economy between inflation and recession. Yet Americans, surprisingly, have tolerated it.

    But we shouldn’t expect that to go on forever. We had three central banks before the Fed, and confined each to the ash heap of history. The problems inherent to central banking are cause to scrap the Fed as well.

    Central banking dates to 1694, when the Bank of England was founded for the purpose of creating the hidden tax of inflation to provide cheap money to government—above all, for Britain’s many foreign wars. In exchange, the central bankers were paid well with interest.

    Like any government-favored bank, the Bank of England lent money it didn’t have, lending far more than the silver in its vaults. The British government endorsed this fraud because the king and Parliament wanted the money.

    But the fraud went further still: The Bank of England was allowed to use its new government bond holdings to back private loans, which meant creating even more money with no silver behind it to lend to private banks. This, too, earned interest, even though the money was created out of nothing.

    The explosion of money caused a tissue fire in the British economy—a short period of fast growth followed by rampant inflation and an economic collapse. The boom-bust cycle was born, what we now call the “business cycle.”

    When the Bank of England didn’t have enough silver to exchange for all the money it created, the British government pulled the 18th-century equivalent of a bailout by suspending specie redemption, allowing the Bank of England to stop repaying in the silver it had promised.

    Central banking was imported to the New World before the Constitution was even written. The Bank of North America, our first central bank, copied the Bank of England and created hyperinflation under the Articles of Confederation. At that point, the Founding Fathers scrapped both the Articles of Confederation and the bank.

    Thinking that the bank needed a replacement, Congress created the First Bank of the United States in 1791 to consolidate the various currencies and debts from the states and to provide short-term loans to the government.

    The First Bank was forbidden from buying government bonds to avoid its predecessor’s hyperinflation. But when the government needed more revenue, Congress decided to sell its shares in the bank, and the charter wasn’t renewed. The central bank was dead, and the U.S. economy boomed until the War of 1812.

    To finance that war, the government borrowed heavily from regional banks, which created money out of nothing for the government. That meant that much more paper money was in circulation than gold and silver in bank vaults. When people tried to redeem their paper for specie, the banks didn’t have enough, and many failed.

    To bail out the banks, Congress created another central bank in 1816, the Second Bank of the United States.

    The Second Bank curtailed excessive lending by regional banks, but only after first encouraging it. The result was a debt-fueled boom followed by a bust in 1819 that sparked the nation’s first depression.

    Many in Congress were tolerant of the violent economic spasms caused by the central bank because it provided money for them to spend without overtly raising taxes. But the people were not fooled and would not tolerate it. They elected Andrew Jackson to do battle with the beast, and he ensured the bank’s charter wasn’t renewed in 1836.

    That ushered in some of America’s greatest decades of economic growth.

    The Golden Age came to an end in 1907 when mismanagement by major banks touched off a bank crisis that required a herculean rescue effort by J.P. Morgan and Co. In response, J. Pierpont Morgan wanted the government to sanction a private “bank for bankers” to respond to such crises.

    The progressives in Congress refused because, as Sen. Nelson Aldrich (R-R.I.) said, “We may not always have Pierpont Morgan with us to meet a banking crisis.” And so, shortly after Morgan’s death in 1913, the politicians created a fully government-run institution to bail out government and bad banks alike: the Federal Reserve.

    The boom-bust cycle was on steroids from that moment on.

    The Fed ominously began with an inflationary boom to pay for World War I, ending in the depression of 1920. It created another inflationary boom to keep Britain afloat in the late 1920s, which set off the Great Depression. Every five to 10 years for the last century, the Fed has created, then popped, bubble after bubble, each time taking down swatches of the American economy.

    Just in the past three decades, the Fed’s low interest rates caused the dot-com bubble in the 1990s, then the housing bubble and a global financial crisis in 2008. Today, there’s an “everything bubble” from the Fed’s panic-printing to bribe voters into lockdowns, yielding the combined risks of 1970’s stagflation and a 2008-style bank collapse.

    Since its founding, the Fed has stolen 98% of the value of a dollar. It has used those profits to repetitively launch boom-bust cycles and to transfer trillions to the federal government, special interests, and wealthy borrowers.

    Jackson did not tolerate such thieving rampages from his central bank. And we need not either.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 13:50

  • Putin Signs Decree To Draft 130K Young Men In Fall Conscription
    Putin Signs Decree To Draft 130K Young Men In Fall Conscription

    In a fall call-up, Russia is drafting 130,000 more young men for compulsory service, based on a decree signed by President Putin on Friday. Men aged 18-27 will be recruited for a one-year period from Oct.1 and Dec.31, however, this latest conscription drive will not involve sending this new batch to fight in Ukraine, the Kremlin said. 

    Deputy head of the military’s mobilization department, Rear Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky, sought to assure in a briefing, “There are no plans for additional mobilization measures.”

    Conscripts are seen at a railway station. Source: Sergei Malgavko via Zuma

    The defense ministry previously said they are taking long-term steps to reach Putin’s goal of increasing the national armed forces’ combat personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million.

    The last draft came in the spring, which conscripted 147,00 men, and thus with this new fall drive a total of 277,000 will have been conscripted in 2023.

    While new conscripts will not be sent to fight in Ukraine, for the first time they will be drawn from the newly “reunited” regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, and the Zaporozhye and Kherson oblasts:

    Conscription for military service in what Moscow describes as Russia’s new regions is regulated by a so-called constitutional law on admission to the Russian Federation, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

    According to the law, the autumn 2023 conscription round will include the newly annexed territories for the first time.

    Russia is meanwhile celebrating one year since these territories were declared ‘legally’ part of the Russian Federation, according to remarks of Putin Saturday.

    “A year ago, on September 30, a defining and truly historic event took place when agreements were signed to incorporate four new constituent entities into the Russian Federation,” he said in a video address, according to TASS.

    He hailed the occasion on which “millions of residents of Donbass and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions made their choice to be with their Fatherland,” saying further: “This conscious, long-awaited, hard-won and genuinely popular decision was made collectively through referendums in full compliance with international norms.”

    One year ago it was noted by media sources that Russia was annexing lands roughly the size of Portugal…

    “People showed courage and integrity in the face of attempts to intimidate and deprive them of their right to determine their own future, their destiny, and to take away something every person values, namely, culture, traditions, and mother tongue, in a word, everything that was loathed by nationalists and their Western patrons who orchestrated a coup in Kiev in 2014 and then unleashed a full-scale civil war and terror against dissenters and organized blockades, constant shelling, and punitive actions in Donbass,” Putin described, reiterating his rationale for the “special military operation”.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 13:15

  • Turley: Ten Reasons Why The Biden Impeachment Inquiry Is Justified
    Turley: Ten Reasons Why The Biden Impeachment Inquiry Is Justified

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    There have been repeated references to the ten facts that I alluded to in my congressional testimony as establishing an ample basis to launch a formal impeachment inquiry. I have received emails asking about those ten developments so I wanted to post them. They are found in my written testimony, but I did not have time to go through them all in the course of my oral statement before the Committee.

    While many have noted that I stated that I do not view the current evidence as sufficient for articles of impeachment, that is hardly surprising. This was the first hearing of the inquiry and was called to address why the threshold for an inquiry had been established. I was also asked to address the constitutional standards and best practices going forward. Indeed, I criticized the last two impeachments for prematurely declaring impeachable conduct without fully developing a record to support such articles. This hearing returned the impeachment process to a type of regular order in reserving judgment until all of the evidence could be acquired by the three committees.

    Here are the ten developments that I cited as justifying an impeachment inquiry (a view with which my fellow witness University of North Carolina Professor Michael Gerhardt disagreed):

    The record currently contains witness and written evidence that the President

    (1) has lied about key facts in these foreign dealings,

    (2) was the focus of a multimillion-dollar influence peddling scheme, and

    (3) may have benefitted from this corruption through millions of dollars sent to his family as well as more direct possible benefits.

    The President may be able to disprove or rebut these points, but they raise legitimate concerns over his role based on the accounts of key figures in the matter.

    Consider just ten of the disclosures from the prior investigation:

    1. Hunter Biden and his associates were running a classic influence peddling operation using Joe Biden as what Devon Archer called “the Brand.”[1] While this was described as an “illusion of access,” millions were generated for the Bidens from some of the most corrupt figures in the world, including associates who were later accused of or convicted of public corruption.[2]

    2. Some of the Biden clients pushed for changes impacting United States foreign policy and relations, including help in dealing with Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin investigating corruption.[3]

    3. President Biden has made false claims about his knowledge of these dealings repeatedly in the past, including insisting that he had no knowledge of Hunter’s foreign dealings which Archer has declared “patently false.”[4] The Washington Post and other media outlets have also declared the President’s insistence that his family did not take money from China as false.[5]

    4. The President had been aware for years that Hunter Biden and his uncle James were accused of influence peddling, including an audiotape of the President acknowledging a New York Times investigation as a threat to Hunter.[6]

    5. President Biden was repeatedly called into meetings with these foreign clients and was put on speakerphone.[7] He also met these clients and foreign figures at dinners and meetings.[8]

    6. Emails and other communications show Hunter repeatedly invoking his father to secure payments from foreign sources and, in one such message, he threatens a Chinese figure that his father is sitting next to him to coerce a large transfer of money.[9]

    7. A trusted FBI source recounted a direct claim of a corrupt Ukrainian businessman that he paid a “bribe” to Joe Biden through intermediaries.[10]

    8. Hunter Biden reportedly claimed that he had to give half of his earnings to his father[11] and other emails state that intermingled accounts were used to pay bills for both men, including a possible credit account that Hunter used to allegedly pay prostitutes.[12]

    9. At least two transfers of funds to Hunter Biden in 2019 from a Chinese source listed the President’s home in Delaware where Hunter sometimes lived and conducted business.[13]

    10. Some of the deals negotiated by Hunter involved potential benefits for his father, including office space in Washington.[14] At least nine Biden family members reportedly received money from these foreign transfers, including grandchildren.[15] For Hunter Biden, this included not just significant money transfers but gifts like an expensive diamond and a luxury car.[16]

    These are only some of the serious corruption allegations facing the President, but each could raise impeachable conduct if a nexus is established to the President.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/30/2023 – 12:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Sep 30

Today’s News 30th September 2023

  • Springtime For Hitler
    Springtime For Hitler

    Authored by David Sacks via American Greatness,

    Western cheerleaders for the war in Ukraine have sought to deny the complicated relationship between Ukrainian nationalism and neo-Nazi groups, calling any discussion of a Nazi past or present in Ukraine a “Putin talking point.” But the truth can only be suppressed for so long, and it recently burst forth in what should have been a sleepy session of the Canadian Parliament.

    In the midst of introducing Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy for yet another address to the House of Commons, Speaker Anthony Rota recognized 98-year-old Yaroslav Hunka as a Ukrainian war hero for fighting the Soviet Union during World War II, apparently unaware that Hunka had volunteered for the Waffen-SS Galicia division, a Nazi military unit notorious for horrific war crimes.

    An entire roomful of MPs, along with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and a fist-pumping Zelensky, rose in a standing ovation for Hunka. Rota has effusively apologized for his mistake, but the embarrassing spectacle reveals some of the flaws in Western thinking about this war.

    The Virtue-Signaling Imperative

    First, the incident shows how the virtue-signaling imperative to support Project Ukraine supersedes all other values and considerations. The logic works backwards as follows: Ukraine is good, therefore Ukrainian nationalism is good. If someone is a Ukrainian nationalist, therefore, they must be good. Inconvenient facts such as Junka’s service in the Waffen-SS or even that the father of Ukrainian nationalism, Stepan Bandera, was a Nazi collaborator, are mere historical details to be swept aside or airbrushed out, as Western media sometimes do to the photos of Ukrainian soldiers displaying Nazi symbols on their uniforms.

    Stripping away all of the present conflict’s historical context and complexity creates a simplistic binary: one must support either Ukrainian nationalism or the invader’s brute conquest. As this framing is reinforced over and over by the mainstream media and online partisans, any effort to seek a greater level of understanding becomes suspect. Do you have any deeper questions about the causes of the war or the potential paths to peace? You must be “pro-Russian.” For most liberals, and certainly Canadian politicians, it is safer to indulge in historically ignorant virtue signaling than to risk being called a Putin apologist – even if it results in the occasional moment of humiliation from cheering a Nazi.

    Of course, the reality is more complicated than the simplistic binary. Most Ukrainian nationalists are not Nazis. But the presence of Nazi ideology in Ukraine is well documented, and the most ardent ultra-nationalist groups in Ukraine retain the race ideology of their patriarch Bandera. This is why Nazi insignia often appear on Ukrainian uniforms. This is why white nationalists flocked from all over Europe to fight on the Ukrainian side at the beginning of the war. This is why some streets in Ukraine are named after Ukrainian Nazis who participated in war crimes. This is why watchdog groups have been concerned about the rise of hate groups in Ukraine for some time.

    The Role of the Ultra-Nationalists

    Despite all this, we have closed our eyes, covered our ears, and labeled Ukraine’s “Nazi problem” a Putin talking point. This reveals a second and more disturbing flaw in the thinking of U.S. foreign policy: we have made common cause with the ultra-nationalists. Any sensible U.S. foreign policy towards Ukraine (assuming we saw a need to become involved at all) would have endeavored to keep these people at bay. Instead, we cultivated them.

    They participated in the U.S.-backed Maidan coup in 2014, and once a civil war broke out in reaction to the coup, far-right groups like Right Sector and the infamous Azov Battalion began killing separatists in the Donbas, running up a death toll of thousands. Instead of suppressing these efforts, the Kiev government incorporated these militias into the military command structure to continue their work.

    The U.S. could have supported the Minsk Accords between 2015 and 2021 to peacefully resolve the conflict, but our policymakers were seduced by the idea that nationalist fervor in Ukraine would serve our interests. A Rand Corporation study showed how Ukraine could be used as a proxy to destabilize Russia. Zbigniew Brzezinski’s Grand Chessboard explained that Ukraine was a hinge state; if it could be brought into the orbit of the West, Russia would no longer be a great power. We therefore rationalized aligning with groups who would never compromise with Russia and turned a blind eye to their troubling politics.

    A Tragic Refusal to Negotiate

    As Zelensky has constantly reiterated, the Ukrainian position remains that every square inch of territory (including Crimea) must be returned to Ukraine or there will be no peace. But Moscow will never agree to this, particularly when it is winning a war of attrition. Now that the counteroffensive has failed to take back any meaningful amount of territory, there is no viable plan for evicting Russia from Ukrainian territory. The intransigence of Zelensky and his supporters in refusing to negotiate does not serve the long-term interests of Ukraine, which is presently being destroyed, but it is consistent with the agenda of the ultra-nationalists.

    The tragedy is that in 2019 Zelensky was elected on a peace platform – he was supposed to make peace with Russia under the auspices of Minsk II. But far-right groups threatened him with violence if he did, and he backed down. By 2021 he had changed course and was supporting resolutions to take back Crimea and increasing the shelling of the Donbas. With an ardent Ukraine supporter (Biden) in the White House, and a new strategic agreement from the U.S. promising weapons, economic aid and future NATO membership, Zelensky was emboldened to pursue a hardline policy instead of the peace platform he was elected on. With both the U.S. and Ukraine’s far right aligned in favor of this position, it must have appeared suicidal to resist.

    A Better U.S. Policy

    A far better U.S. policy would have been to recognize the right of self-determination for all the people of Ukraine. But that would have meant acknowledging the loss of Crimea (which is mostly Russian) and granting regional autonomy to the Donbas as Ukraine agreed to do in Minsk II. Doing that, and taking NATO membership off the table, would have achieved peace and left Ukraine intact. But peace wasn’t the objective of State Department strategists, who wanted to weaken Russia and saw Ukraine as a pawn on their Grand Chessboard.

    Giving a standing ovation to a former Nazi soldier is a moral stain, but sacrificing Ukraine in a geopolitical game while pretending to be its savior is a far greater one.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 23:45

  • A Timeline Of US Government Shutdowns
    A Timeline Of US Government Shutdowns

    The 2018/19 shutdown was the longest in recent U.S. history at 34 days. 

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz shows in the timeline below, government shutdowns have been getting longer in the last three decades, with the second-longest and the fourth-longest shutdown taking place in 1995 and 2013, respectively.

    Infographic: The Timeline of U.S. Government Shutdowns | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Throughout the 1980s, shutdowns were numerous, but shorter, while in the 1970s, they also ran somewhat longer, but only surpassed two weeks once, in 1978. Government shutdowns aren’t all that rare: Since 1976, there have been 20 shutdowns that lasted an average of 8 days.

    Currently, the threat of yet another government shutdown is looming large in the United States.

    Despite bipartisan efforts to buy time with a bill that would fund the government through November 17, a small group of hardliner House Republicans has been using its party’s slim majority in the chamber to put pressure on its own leadership. This has so far undercut last-minute funding efforts through the so-called stopgap bill, all while debate to pass actual 2023/34 budget legislation in the House is also leading nowhere. Unless the status quo changes, the federal U.S. government will shut down on 12.01 a.m. Sunday morning.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 23:20

  • Warning: Reality Is Escaping Out The Back Door
    Warning: Reality Is Escaping Out The Back Door

    Authored by Patrick Wood via Technocracy.news,

     The total collapse of reality may be at hand. We have already witnessed mass formation during the Great Panic of 2020, where large swaths of the world seemingly lost touch with reality. That was just a foretaste of what is about to come.

    This is hard to understand, and you might need to read it multiple times. Do it, lest you fall prey to a simulacrum.

    There’s a big word that you can add to your vocabulary: Simulacrum. 

    It is a hard word to wrap your head around, but one you are not too likely to forget. Indeed, you should not forget it!

    Collins defines it as: “1) an image; likeness; 2) a vague representation; semblance; 3) a mere pretense; sham.”

    Cambridge Dictionary says: “something that looks like or represents something else”.

    Purdue University put it this way: “Something that replaces reality with its representation.”

    Jean Baudrillard wrote about this in a 1981 paper called “The Precession of Simulacra”, where he digs deeper, making a distinction between a simulation and a simulacrum.

    Whereas representation attempts to absorb simulation by interpreting it as a false representation, simulation envelops the whole edifice of representation itself as a simulacrum. Such would be the successive phases of the image:

    it is the reflection of a profound reality;

    it masks and denatures a profound reality;

    it masks the absence of a profound reality;

    it has no relation to any reality whatsoever;

    it is its own pure simulacrum.

    So, the switch for reality is anti-reality: “The simulacrum is never what hides the truth – it is truth that hides the fact that there is none.”

    This whole process does not happen in a vacuum because it involves human agency. Reality exists but human perception distorts it.

    Just for review, reality slips into distortion, then into simulation, then finds its resting place in a state of simulacrum. Reality is subsumed by the simulacrum.

    An example of simulacrum in the making

    It is estimated that 90 percent of all online content will be generated by AI by 2025. This means news, social media posts, chats, pictures, videos, podcasts, websites, etc. A deluge of fake social media accounts will be run by AI. In short, everything.

    Nina Schick, A.I. thought leader, wrote,

    “What generative AI can do, essentially, is create new things that would have thus far been seen as unique to human intelligence or creativity, Generative AI can create across all media, so text, video, audio, pictures – every digital medium can be powered by generative AI. So, I think these valuations that you’re seeing for OpenAI are actually going to go up and you’re going to start to see even more generative AI companies which have universal applications across many industries in 2023.”

    People will remember back to 2023 images and think that nothing has changed in 2025.

    Warning : The Total Collapse Of Reality Could Be At Hand

    As described above, a simulacrum is anti-reality.

    This is not a paradigm shift of reality. This is not a “new realty”. This is not reality, period. Unfortunately, billions of people risk being captured by it.

    While everyone is looking at shiny new simulacra forming right before their eyes, reality is escaping out the back door.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 22:55

  • Russian Mystery Plane That Landed In Pyongyang Making Washington Nervous
    Russian Mystery Plane That Landed In Pyongyang Making Washington Nervous

    A Russian ‘mystery plane’ spotted in North Korea is making Washington nervous, after Kim Jong Un visited Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin this moth. The two leaders, deemed ‘rogue’ actors by the West, are believed to have discussed and possibly inked a weapons deal at a moment Moscow needs more ammunition for military operations in Ukraine.

    Citing aviation tracking site FlightRadar24, Bloomberg described it as an an unscheduled Russian military VIP plane that landed in Pyongyang earlier this week.

    Image source: KCTV

    The aircraft was in the North Korean capital for two days, however, both countries have kept mum as to its purpose. It could have been transporting another high-level Russian defense delegation.

    “The tail number on the plane indicates it was the same aircraft Russia sent to North Korea in August, just days after Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Pyongyang and was guided by Kim through a collection of his country’s latest weaponry,” Bloomberg noted.

    The West fears that that this was part of furthering agreements for technology and weapons transfers between the two countries, which are both heavily sanctioned by the US, also amid efforts to isolate them on the world stage.

    Russian planes landing in the broader region might not normally be significant, but is very noticeable in the case of flights to North Korea in particular, given that—

    North Korea has had almost no international air traffic since it closed its borders at the start of the pandemic in early 2020. The arrival of two flights in the space of less than two months highlights cooperation between the two countries, which have drawn closer as the US and its partners tried to isolate them with international sanctions.

    Kim’s trip in Russia, which wrapped up only very recently, lasted two weeks. It included tours of Russian military technology plants, including an aircraft factory in the Russian city of Komsomolsk-na-Amure.

    Washington has over the course of the Ukraine conflict at various points accused North Korea of supplying the Russian military with additional artillery ammo. US intelligence has in the recent past alleged that train shipments between the two countries included covert ammo supplies, but something which has not been proven.

    The two countries actually share a small border. More recently, there have been accusations that Wagner Group, which is now on the outs with Moscow in the wake of the mutiny in June and after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, purchased large quantities of arms and equipment from the Kim Jong-Un government.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 22:30

  • Macleod: The End Of The Road For The Dollar
    Macleod: The End Of The Road For The Dollar

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod,

    With the Asian hegemons undoubtedly able to introduce gold standards, where does that leave the dollar?

    This article describes just how precarious the fiat dollar’s position has become.

    For now, the dollar appears to be buoyed up by rising bond yields. However, as they rise further portfolio losses for foreign investors are likely to increase, leading to dollar liquidation. It is not generally realised how many dollars and dollar securities are owned by foreigners, the bulk of them being held outside the US banking system. And the quantity of foreign currency owned by Americans to absorb this selling is very small in comparison.

    Higher interest rates and bond yields also threaten to destabilise the banking system, a problem equally faced by the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan. But how can the US Government protect itself from this danger?

    The only answer is to admit to the end of the fiat era and put the dollar back onto a gold standard. However, the US Government does not have the mandate to take the required actions and officially at least is still in denial over the need to stabilise the currency. The legal position referring to the constitution is briefly touched upon, because laws will have to be considered to secure the dollar’s future.

    Unfortunately, the US Treasury’s gold holdings are almost certainly compromised. Furthermore, since the Asian hegemons have accumulated substantial holdings of bullion in addition to their official reserves, there is bound to be a strong reluctance to hand economic power to Russia and China by endorsing a return to gold standards.

    My conclusion is that the era of the fiat dollar based global currency system is rapidly ending, and for America and the dollar there can be no Plan B. It will almost certainly lead to  the end of the fiat dollar, and the end of the US hegemony.

    Introduction

    It is dawning on increasing numbers of analysts that the era of the fiat dollar might be drawing to a close. Very few investment professionals know what to expect. Being thoroughly Keynesian in outlook, most still believe that by the Fed managing interest rates consumer price inflation can be contained and that recessions can also be avoided by expanding fiscal deficits. But the contradictions arising from a deteriorating economic outlook and CPI inflation continually rising completely scuppers these macroeconomic theories. Blaming it on Russia and OPEC+ is tempting, but not a good enough argument.

    It is becoming clear that fiat currencies have become increasingly unstable. The only solution for the dollar is to fix the value of credit: but to what? It has been gold or silver throughout the history of national economies. But a denial of returning to exchanging the dollar for a fixed quantity of gold is so systemically embedded in the administration that it is difficult to see this solution even as a last resort.

    In this article I look at the background to what is sure to become a dollar crisis. The urgency of this matter has been brought forward by America’s declining global influence compared with that of the Asian hegemons, and the US Government’s profligacy. Almost certainly, exposure to the dollar will be unwound by foreign actors, and that exposure, which must include dollar credit originated outside the US banking system is colossal. The table below illustrates the approximate position.

    To summarise the evidence, foreigners own or are exposed to a massive $137 trillion dollars. As a cohort, if they decide to begin reducing their exposure US residents have less than a trillion equivalent in foreign currencies to sell in exchange. In the jargon of the markets, the dollar will become “offered only”.

    This is the true danger from rising interest rates. As they rise, the declining value of foreign-owned long-term securities totalling $37 trillion will simply accelerate generating widespread investment and dollar liquidation. This will not be offset by US holders of foreign investments liquidating their positions for a simple reason.

    US holders of foreign securities hold almost all of them in ADR form, being listed and priced in dollars. In a rising interest rate environment, they will also be declining in value and so we can expect US investors to sell them as well. The sale of an ADR does not lead to a sale of an underlying foreign currency, whereas a sale of a dollar security by a foreign holder will almost certainly do so – unless the foreign investor cohort overall is content to add to its holdings of short-term dollar securities.

    Foreign liquidation of dollar investments is a largely unseen danger to the dollar by US-centric commentators who are stuck with the belief that foreigners need to accumulate them. A further rise in interest rates or bond yields, which appears to be underway, far from protecting the dollar will almost certainly lead to portfolio liquidation, dollar liquidation, and therefore its collapse, there being almost no foreign currency in US residents’ hands to absorb it.

    And finally, in the run up to a presidential election year it is becoming clear that the US’s proxy war against Russia is turning into a political and military disaster. Ukraine is running out of men, and Russia is reaping the benefit of western-imposed sanctions. Disagreements between NATO members are beginning to surface.

    What will that do to the dollar’s credibility? It all feels like a fin de siècle, the end of the fiat era and the beginning of a new currency regime.

    The background to a new dollar crisis

    It is never wise to pursue political and economic policies to the end of the road. But that is what the US Government appears to be doing.

    In 1971, having embarked on a policy of replacing gold with the dollar as everyone’s currency and valuation standard, there is every reason to fear that for the US Government to return its fiat dollar to sound money is politically impossible. The reasons this might now matter are twofold: the dollar is losing its grip as the world’s reserve currency, and interest rates are rising into a recession which could turn into a slump, destabilising the mountain of debt which is the other side of too much unproductive credit intermediated by over-leveraged banks.

    In previous articles, I have shown the importance of anchoring the value of credit to gold to ensure its stability, particularly at a time when credit’s instability becomes beyond the state’s control. Such a time has clearly arrived. I have described the practicalities of how to do it, which is to simply ensure that a currency is freely convertible into gold coin and bullion. A modern version of this has been proved to work time and again in the form of currency boards recommended and implemented for a number of governments by Professor Steve Hanke, tying collapsing currencies to a relatively stable dollar. But the dollar itself is now becoming highly unstable.

    For the US Government, the urgency of considering a gold standard for the dollar is now upon it, because the Asian hegemons — Russia and China — are in a position to put their roubles and yuan on rock-solid gold standards. The ease with which Russia can do this was demonstrated in my recent article, here. Furthermore, it is increasingly in Russia’s interest to take this step. But if Russia does so, it is bound to fatally undermine the fiat dollar’s position. And it is not widely realised that China is again encouraging its citizens to buy gold. This is from the Jerusalem Post on 7 June:

    “Last week an event occurred which was completely missed by the mainstream media. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) took the next important step to encourage a wider and less wealthy section of Chinese citizens to purchase gold and silver bullion. The PBOC opened the facility for citizens to convert renminbi cash savings held in the public’s own bank accounts to be converted into physical gold at the click of a button.”

    Does that indicate that China feels the time has come to protect even her poorer citizens and the yuan from global currency instability?

    Perhaps the hegemons are positioning themselves. While putting the rouble onto a gold standard would be seen as an act of extreme monetary aggression against the fiat dollar, Russia urgently needs to stabilise her currency. In a dollar-centric world suffused with anti-Russian propaganda, any weakness in the dollar is simply multiplied in the rouble exchange rate. This the flaw in Putin’s agreement with Saudi Arabia to drive up energy prices. As I put it in the article referenced above, if they shiver in Germany, they will freeze in Russia: that is without massive energy subsidies for the Russian people.

    Feedback from readers exposes an erroneous belief that it is the trade balance which matters. They correctly say that higher energy prices improve Russia’s balance of trade. So why should the rouble’s exchange rate not benefit? The answer is that the purchasing power of a fiat currency depends totally in the belief in its validity as a medium of exchange. And while it is true that Russia’s exports benefit from higher oil and gas prices, in a global inflation crisis such as we now face, the rouble’s credibility is unlikely to improve, particularly when it is off-limits for western speculators and the Russians are demonised in capital markets.

    Therefore, we should assume that Russia will be forced to take meaningful steps to stabilise the rouble, which can only be done by returning the rouble to a gold standard. Furthermore, Russia’s economy has the low tax environment that would benefit hugely from interest rates that reflect gold as money as opposed to fiat roubles. From an interest rate on one-year rouble credit currently at 16% we can expect this to decline towards 3% over not very much time with enormous economic benefits. There is evidence that senior Russians, including Putin, understand this point.

    If only the US could achieve similar benefits from sound money! Unfortunately, it requires a totally different political, strategic, and economic mindset to those currently operating in Washington and Langley. Instead, the Keynesian playbook is for the state to increase its fiscal and monetary support for the economy to prevent it running into a recession. And policy makers are more informed in their policies by the recent price stability at lower interest rates than the instability of the 1970s when the fiat dollar was bedding in. They believe that the consumer price inflation problem is exogenous and not the consequence of earlier monetary policies. And they aver that a period of current interest rates, or at least levels not much higher, will be sufficient to return CPI inflation towards the 2% mandated target.

    America is trapped in a political and economic version of Stockholm syndrome. But there are some influential analysts who are beginning to see this as wishful thinking, and that energy prices in particular are not only going higher but will continue to do so. This creeping suspicion is likely to permeate official thinking over time and in the light of developments.

    As part of this enlightenment, JPMorgan’s Global Equity Research unit is now forecasting $150 prices for Brent. The consequences for heating oil and diesel prices are particularly pernicious. These values are already rising, as the snapshot of energy and commodity price moves over the last three months indicates.

    Other prices rising ahead of the US winter include some basic foodstuffs, indicating that any move towards CPI normality is a long way off. And then there is the widespread ignorance that surrounds the consequences of the bank credit cycle which is entering its contractionary phase. The effects are to wrest control over interest rates from central bankers, as desperate borrowers with deteriorating cash flows scramble for scarce credit: they will simply have to pay up to remain in business.

    The consequences of the credit cycle

    It is too simplistic an argument to blame depressions, slumps, and recessions on the failings of the private sector. The cause is always a contraction of credit. But that is created by a previous overexpansion of bank credit and by its nature is a correction of a previous condition. The greater and the longer the expansion is prolonged, the more destructive the contraction that follows.

    Ignoring this reality, Keynes and others invested in a role for governments to intervene in economic affairs. It required the eventual abandonment of sound money. The original idea was for governments to take up the recessionary slack, stimulating the economy by deliberately running a budget deficit, and recovering public finances subsequently through increased tax revenues when the economy recovers. By these means, it was believed that recessions would be minimised, and government finances would be balanced over the economic cycle.

    It was an argument which was applied with apparent success in the post-war years until the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement, when the inflation of the dollar’s M3 had doubled from $27bn in July 1950 to $59bn in August 1971, without the inflationary consequences that followed the suspension of Bretton Woods.

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement began to fall apart following the failure of the London gold pool in the late sixties, for America’s high priests of macroeconomics the strictures of a gold standard straitjacket were the problem, not the failures of their economic and monetary theories. Bretton Woods was abandoned, and ever since government-inspired economic theory has doubled down on failure. The FRED chart of the US’s budget position illustrates the consequences of every time things go wrong, blame free markets and just double down on a policy of government stimulation by fiscal deficits.

    To put these deficits into context, in fiscal 2021, Federal Government outlays were $6.822 trillion, and revenues were $4.047 trillion. In other words, the deficit on expenditure was 31.4% of revenue. After a brief recovery in fiscal 2022, the current fiscal year which is ending shortly will see a further deterioration in the deficit to $2 trillion. But with the prospect of a now widely expected recession and interest rates higher for longer, fiscal 2024’s deficit will likely be significantly worse.

    Clearly, with recession expected and despite record government deficits, the Keynesian stimulation theory has run its course and has failed completely. But that is not all. Lower interest rates are meant to rouse an economy, and in that they have also failed. Macroeconomic theories become so far removed from economic reality that the whole establishment of the economic profession needs to reset its approach to free markets.

    The cyclical problem of bank credit

    One of the extraordinary failures of modern thinking concerns an almost total blindness to the cyclicality of bank lending. And what is nominal GDP, which is used to measure economic performance? It is no more nor no less than the deployment of credit for qualifying transactions making up GDP. Yet no one appears to understand the consequences of this important fact. GDP rises and falls, not driven by consumers but by changes in the availability of bank credit. Consumer behaviour is not the source of recessions in consumer activity; it is the availability of the credit that drives it.

    Those who do not understand the cycle of bank credit and its implications are the large majority of economic actors, both in the financial and non-financial sectors. And the most stubborn cohort of deniers is to be found in governments and their bureaucrats. From the major central banks to banking regulators, a group-thinking blindness to the causes of regular booms and busts is the source of an evolving cyclical credit crisis. Unfortunately, if a government and its agents continue with wrong policies for long enough, instead of being derided public belief in them grows. It is a particular problem in capital markets which have now bought into central bank group thinking policies without reservation.

    Bank executives are not immune to this trend. Consequently, instead of sticking to their business objectives properly, they are beholden to central banks and government regulators. Their true business is to be dealers in credit, not to bear responsibility for those who claim to be stakeholders and regulators, but to achieve returns for their shareholders.

    Few bankers seem to realise that they are trapped in a cycle of bank credit of their own creation. That is why the cycle has existed for as long as credit statistics have been available. But combine a lack of understanding of the cause of the cycle with the absence of shareholder responsibility, and we can expect the management of large banks to think that with regulatory support they can trade their way out of economic downturns by simply adhering to the regulations. The few banks that have failed this time have been dealt with by the regulators, restoring faith in the regulatory regime for the others.

    But when bankers have the wake-up call, that their balance sheets are over-leveraged and producer input prices are rising, unless they urgently reduce their lending exposure they will risk bankruptcy from bad debts and falling collateral values. That is why bank lending is contracting, and why in real terms GDP will decline. And the contraction of GDP feeds into yet more credit contraction, driving up borrowing costs. The pressure on banks to liquidate both on-balance sheet investments and collateral against loans is bound to intensify.

    The pressure on the dollar from foreign holders selling down their exposure will naturally follow. As seen in the table in the introduction to this article, the pressure on the dollar from these combined events threaten its continuing existence. Other than accepting the reintroduction of a credible gold standard, what fiscal measures will be required to make a gold standard sustainable?

    Cutting out excess spending

    The current fiscal year, which ends on 30 September will see a deficit on US Government spending of $2 trillion. $Nearly one trillion of that is debt interest:

    The way that debt interest has soared indicates that the US Government is already in a debt trap. Furthermore, in its last estimates of debt interest costs (May 2023), the Congressional Budget Office assumed that the average interest rate on debt held by the public in this fiscal year would be only 2.7%, and in 2024 2.9%. With 3-month T-bills already yielding 4.8% and 10-year Treasury notes over 4.5%, these forecasts are already out of date. And with a recession now more certain than at the time of the CBO’s forecast, on current spending plans plus the fall in tax revenues the budget deficit for 2024 is headed for over $2.5 trillion, even assuming no further rises to borrowing costs. But they are likely to rise to over $1.5 trillion, taking the likely deficit into covid lockdown territory.

    In the fiscal year just ending, the average rate of interest paid works out at 2.9%, which compares with a current rate in excess of 4.5%. The consequences of deteriorating tax revenues, increasing welfare costs, rising price inflation, yet higher bond yields, a credit squeeze, and the refinancing of $7.6 trillion of existing debt make the current position unsustainable.

    The best solution is to radically cut spending. But given the scale of the problem as part of the solution taxes might have to be increased as well, though the emphasis must be on spending cuts. If there was time to implement these cuts, they could be spread over a few years, but time is of the essence.

    Otherwise, the US Government will merely fall deeper and deeper into its debt trap.

    This will be the minimum required for the US Government to put its finances in order and to implement and maintain a gold standard for the dollar. Contrary to Keynesian theory, the economic benefits of balancing the budget would be substantial. This was proved in the UK when 364 Keynesian economists signed a letter to London’s The Times criticising the 1981 budget. In that case, at a time of rising unemployment, high inflation and recession, Chancellor Geoffrey Howe raised taxes to close the budget gap. This represented 2% of GDP, which compares with a prospective US deficit of over 9% of GDP. The Keynesian economists opined that tightening monetary policy at a time of recession was wrong. But no sooner was the letter published, than the economy began to improve.

    Admittedly, the British deficit as a proportion of the total economy was far less than that faced by the US Government today. But the disproving of Keynesian theories of deficit stimulation, and the benefit to the economy of a balanced budget cannot be denied. Furthermore, if in balancing the budget expenditure is cut allowing taxpayers to keep more of their earnings, the economic benefits are even more obvious. Hence, the recommendation that as much as possible the reduction in government spending is the best way to balance the budget and achieve a better economic outlook.

    Not only will balanced budgets have to be run thereafter but spending must be firmly capped in nominal terms. A free market, non-interventionist philosophy must replace state intervention and management of the economy. Central bank credit must be contained, and commercial bank credit allowed to respond to demand for productive credit.

    Business must be permitted to dance to the tune of consumers, and not the regulators. Bad businesses hide behind regulation, which through licencing disadvantages competition. Regulators are not motivated by what the consumer wants and is often ignorant of his trade. They produce unnecessary bureaucracy. Where they exist to deter fraudulent and unfair practices, they rarely succeed. Not only should consumers be free to choose the products that they want, but they must be responsible for their actions. The idea that the state can replace the principle of caveat emptor is ridiculous.

    The same goes for trade. Traditionally, trade tariffs have been a source of government revenue, but they have evolved into politically driven means of penalising nations which are successful exporters in favour of protecting uncompetitive domestic production. This disadvantages the domestic consumer and manufacturers sourcing raw materials and machinery from abroad.

    The setting of interest rates must be to regulate the balance of gold reserves, and not, repeat not to regulate the economy. The source of investment capital in the form of savings should be permitted to return, encouraged by removing all taxation from savings and trading profits. Consumer debt, other than mortgage finance, will wither under these conditions. A savings driven economy, such as Japan’s and China’s, is less prone to consumer price inflation and interest rate volatility. And if savings are not taxed, they become encouraged.

    And lastly, government statistics should be banned, because they only serve to encourage state intervention. If there is demand for any particular run of statistics, then private sector actors can provide them.

    The US faces problems with a gold standard

    As a matter of fact, gold as money is written into the US constitution as well as in the definition of the dollar. It will surprise readers to know that what commonly circulates as dollars are not dollars at all, being Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs). Under constitutional law, United States money is expressed in dollars, while FRNs are redeemable in dollars which is the lawful money. Therefore, the FRN dollar bills in circulation are not lawful money.

    It might seem a pedantic point perhaps, but it should be respected and addressed in any future legislation. And the dollar itself was defined in gold. Article 1 Sec. 10, Clause 1 of the Constitution states:

    No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts…

    There is much to unpack in this clause, but it is money that concerns us. In 1785, Congress unanimously resolved that the money unit of the United States was to be the dollar and that the dollar would contain 375.64 grains of fine silver. The same resolution determined that there shall be two gold coins, one equal to 10 dollars and one equal to 5 dollars. And subsequently under the Coinage Act of 1792, the coinage of gold Eagles was mandated, “each to the value of $10 containing 247.5 grains of pure gold”.

    Dollars and dollar-substitutes such as the FRN were the medium for payment because they specifically represented gold and silver coin in the prescribed weights. In 1834, gold became the de facto standard, confirmed in the Coinage Act of 1900 at 23.22 grains of fine gold, the equivalent of $20.67 to the ounce, a standard that operated for nearly a century until 1933.

    It would appear to be a simple matter to return to convertibility in accordance with the law, but instead of the earlier fixed weight, a new relationship would have to be determined for the constitutional dollar and the FRNs if they be permitted to continue to exist: the future of the Federal Reserve system must be called into question, having presided over a failed fiat currency of its own issuance. Either way, the Treasury’s promise to pay the equivalent in its gold reserves to the Fed at $42.22 to the ounce, must be addressed.

    Some commentators posit that to define the dollar by weight of gold and to make it fully exchangeable requires a substantial devaluation of the dollar, perhaps to $5,000 or $10,000 per ounce of gold. And that in order to do so, it would be declared over a weekend. Presumably, it is thought that this new rate would ensure that gold would be redeemed for dollars, allowing a new gold exchange rate to operate without undermining the Treasury’s bullion reserves. This appears to be a muddled Keynesian way of thinking, in the belief that devaluation is necessary to ensure a favourable exchange rate with other currencies, whether exchangeable for gold or not, and to ensure there is sufficient economic stimulus to support the mountains of debt in the private sector. But it would also be a default on the US Government’s debt by devaluing it in terms of legal money, which is still gold despite current denials by the US authorities.

    Such a substantial devaluation is clearly intended to allow headroom for the US Government to continue with its current fiscal and monetary policies. But without the fundamental reforms outlined in the previous section, it would probably be only a very short time before a devaluing dollar forces yet another reset. In short, it would fool no one for long.

    Then there is the problem of verifying US official reserves, which at 8,134 tonnes have been almost unchanged since 1980. Rumours about their condition and the extent to which they actually exist makes them uncredible. To what extent have they been swapped and leased over the decades, if indeed they exist in bars of LBMA deliverable standards?

    The experience of Germany seeking repatriation of some of its gold reserves stored as earmarked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York rings alarm bells over the entire situation. And as long ago as 2002, Frank Veneroso, who was a highly respected analyst at the time concluded that between 10,000—14,000 tonnes of central bank gold reserves had been either swapped or leased and sold into the market. The latter figure was half the declared official reserves of the entire world.

    Since then, the leasing game and price suppression of gold has certainly continued. But there is a difference today, with increasing numbers of central banks accumulating bullion reserves, currently recorded at 35,731 tonnes. Much of this increase has to do with China, Russia, and their rapidly expanding spheres of influence, who do not lease or swap their gold reserves. Germany’s experience of the US idea of property ownership of gold, and the Bank of England refusing to deliver Venezuela’s gold when demanded plus the leasing shell game amounts to strong circumstantial evidence that the US Treasury and the New York Fed vaults do not have the gold they say they have.

    This in itself suggests that there really is almost nothing backing the fiat dollar when the fall-back position becomes a return to gold as the money-anchor for credit. Furthermore, there is the geopolitics of gold to consider. Not only has Russia been accumulating bullion reserves, but informed sources believe that there is further bullion in state funds, bringing Russia’s holdings to about 12,000 tonnes. And China has had a policy of accumulating gold “off balance sheet” since 1983, accelerating mine output, importing large quantities of bullion, and not permitting any bullion to leave the country. Overnight, China could probably increase her official reserves to a level in excess of 30,000 tonnes.

    We can be sure that the US’s intelligence services have an idea of this situation, and the geopolitical disadvantages to the US and its dollar of a return to gold as the monetary standard. In London, where the bullion banks offer unallocated gold accounts, a substantial rise in the gold price such as that recommended by some US analysts would lead to bankruptcies among the LBMA member banks with extremely serious consequences. And on Comex, it would be likely to lead to implementation of force majeure clauses.

    The consequences for commodity prices from a de facto devaluation of the dollar would also be to drive them significantly higher. On all practical grounds, a substantial gold revaluation/devaluation of the dollar can be ruled out.

    Conclusion

    The hurdles in the way of the fiat dollar’s survival are steadily mounting, and the US Government does not know how to secure its future. The state theory of money is turning into a total failure. Interest rates, which more correctly are the time preference required to ensure foreign holders of dollars continue to hold them are rising. This tells us that markets expect the purchasing power of dollar credit to continue to decline, so if the monetary authorities attempt to stop them rising, the currency will fall, and foreigners will sell. Equally, as bond yields rise the value of all financial assets will decline, portfolios will be sold, and presumably the currency raised will be as well.

    Either way, the days of the fiat dollar are numbered. The politicians have no mandate to protect it by balancing the budget, returning to a gold standard, and taking the economic measures necessary to make it stick. Furthermore, America’s existing bullion holdings appear to be badly compromised – the cupboard is bare.

    Not only is it the end of the fiat federal dollar note, but it is the end of empire, which the administration is reluctant to accept. We must hope that some strategic sense prevails, and the Doctor Strangeloves at Langley do not have their way.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 22:05

  • "No Path Forward": McCarthy Says Senate Stopgap Bill DOA As Shutdown Approaches
    “No Path Forward”: McCarthy Says Senate Stopgap Bill DOA As Shutdown Approaches

    Update (2157ET): It looks like the Senate isn’t willing to strip Ukraine funds from the continuing resolution. In a Friday night tweet, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said that the “misguided Senate bill has no path forward and is dead on arrival.”

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    Meanwhile, according to Punchbowl News‘ Jake Sherman and Josh Bresnahan, McCarthy is floating a CR that would last until Nov. 17 at FY2023 funding levels, which would not include border funds or Ukraine funding.

    *  *  *

    In an 11th hour Hail Mary in the hopes of averting a government shutdown, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced that the only way the House will pass a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government through October is to drop Ukraine funding.

    “I think if we had a clean one without Ukraine on it, we could probably be able to move that through,” McCarthy told CNN‘s Manu Raju.

    The comment comes hours after McCarthy lost a game of chicken with the House Freedom Caucus, failing to pass a CR which left McCarthy will few options to try and avert a shutdown in less than 36 hours. McCarthy was hoping that the House bill’s border security provisions would win over enough holdouts to pass.

    Meanwhile, the White House slammed the failed bill over the ‘elimination of 12,000 FBI agents,’ and ‘almost 1,000 ATF agents.’

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    Of note, House Republicans on Thursday narrowly passed the annual defense spending bill, but only after they removed $300 million in Ukraine aid from the legislation (which then cleared in a separate vote because a bunch of Democrats then voted).

    Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who failed twice last week to advance the bill to the floor, finally locked down enough Republican votes to pass the bill after the House stripped $300 million to arm Ukraine from the text.

    The separate bill carved out to allocate those funds for Kyiv passed Thursday in a 311-117 blowout bipartisan vote. Republicans had won a close procedural vote earlier in the day to separate the Ukraine money from the Pentagon bill, a move meant to flip a handful of GOP holdouts. –Politico

    Democrats framed the optics as Kremlin-friendly, with House Armed Services ranking Democrat Adam Smith saying “The Russians are good at propaganda… It will be played as America backing off of its commitment for Ukraine.”

    Republicans responded that by carving Ukraine out of the defense bill, it allows opponents of either measure (Ukraine aid or the defense bill) to voice their opinions on each independently.

    “Why don’t we make sure this gets through? I mean, I’m just mystified that this is somehow a problem,” said House Rules Chair Tom Cole (R-OK), according to Politico. “We guarantee you something you want is going to pass the House and you’re upset about it.”

    And now, McCarthy says there’s no way to avert a government shutdown unless the House, and the Senate, agree to nix Ukraine aid from the 30-day stopgap.

    Fire and Brimstone…

    On Friday, White House top economic adviser Lael Brainard said that a shutdown would pose an “unnecessary risk” to what he described as a resilient economy with moderating inflation.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen then chimed in, warning that all of Bidenomics could be negatively impacted.

    “The failure of House Republicans to act responsibly would hurt American families and cause economic headwinds that could undermine the progress we’re making,” Yellen said from Port of Savannah, Georgia, adding “A shutdown would impact many key government functions from loans to farmers and small businesses, to food and workplace safety inspections, to Head Start programs for children.

    “And it could delay major infrastructure improvements.”

    Goldman has predicted that a shutdown will last 2-3 weeks, and that a ‘quick reopening looks unlikely as political positions become more deeply entrenched.’ Instead, as political pressure to reopen the government builds, pay dates for active-duty military (Oct. 13 and Nov. 1) will become key dates to pay attention to.

    In addition, they think a shutdown could subtract 0.2pp from Q4 GDP growth for each week it lasts (adding the same to 1Q2024, assuming it’s over by then).

    What’s more, all data releases from federal agencies would be postponed until after the government reopens.

    More via Goldman:

    What are the odds the government shuts down?

    A shutdown this year has looked likely for several months, and we now think the odds have risen to 90%. The most likely scenario in our view is that funding will lapse after Sep. 30, leading to a shutdown starting Oct. 1. That said, a short-term extension cannot be entirely ruled out. In the event that Congress avoids a shutdown starting Oct. 1, we would still expect a shutdown at some point later in Q4.

    While there is likely sufficient support in both chambers of Congress to pass a short-term extension of funding—this is known as a “continuing resolution” (CR)—that is “clean” with no other provisions attached, the majority of that support would come from Democrats. The Senate is considering a CR that includes aid for disaster relief and Ukraine. House Republican leaders are under political pressure to pass a CR that includes Republican policy priorities that can pass with mainly or exclusively Republican support. At the moment, neither chamber looks likely to pass the other chamber’s CR.

    The outlook seemed bleak ahead of the debt limit deadline earlier this year, but Congress resolved it in time; why shouldn’t we expect a last-minute deal once again?

    The smaller economic hit from a shutdown puts less pressure on Republican leaders to override the objections of some in their party to reach a deal. Ahead of the debt limit deadline earlier this year, Republican leaders reached a deal over the objections of some in their party because the potential hit to the economy from an impasse would have been unpredictable and severe, and even lawmakers most strongly opposed to a compromise agreed that the debt limit must be raised. By contrast, the economic hit from a shutdown would be smaller and more predictable, as there have already been two protracted shutdowns over the last decade. While most lawmakers on both sides of the aisle would prefer to avoid a shutdown, both sides appear more willing to take the chance it occurs.

    *  *  *

    Stay tuned…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 22:00

  • These Are The Most Sought-After Entry Level Jobs In 2023
    These Are The Most Sought-After Entry Level Jobs In 2023

    In the fast-paced realm of job hunting, staying ahead of the curve is crucial. And if you are an entry-level job applicant, the pressure is a notch higher.

    New entrants in any job market today compete with groundbreaking technology like ChatGPT in addition to their peers. In the United States, these applicants have to also wade through an uncertain labor market, inflation, and long lists of job requirements.

    Visual Capitalist’s Freny Fernandes and Bhabna Banerjee, using data from Indeed.com, have identified the most sought-after entry level positions for applicants both with and without a degree in the U.S., and the year-on-year growth of these job postings.

    Most Sought-After Entry-Level Jobs With a Degree

    As the U.S. job market recovers from its pandemic slump, some careers are now booming. This in turn has opened up numerous opportunities for entry-level job applicants.

    The demand for sales jobs multiplied this year as customer-facing businesses slowly returned to their pre-pandemic levels.

    At the top of this list is the job for an Outside Sales Representative. Paying upwards of $60,000, postings for this job have grown by over 250% in a year, making it the most sought-after position for applicants with a degree.

    The healthcare industry has secured its place in the top ranks too. Careers including mental health case managers, speech pathologists, behavioral therapists, and patient access managers dominate the Top 20 list.

    Let’s not forget about the tech sector. While entry-level network technicians can earn upwards of $85,000 on average, while IT engineers are paid an entry package of over $90,000.

    Most Sought-After Entry-Level Jobs Without a Degree

    Nearly 65% of the U.S. working population does not have a four-year degree. However, millions of these workers continue to be highly skilled across professions and have a shot at some of the most sought-after entry level jobs in the country.

    One example of this job is that of an Inventory Manager. The demand for skilled inventory managers in warehouses and companies post-pandemic has doubled the position’s job share in a year.

    One of the highest paying non-degree jobs in this list—Auto Body Technician—can fetch highly-skilled entry-level workers a salary of $82,000 per year.

    These jobs don’t seem to require a degree according to Indeed. However, the rising competition for these positions might give the upper edge to applicants with one, especially for jobs on the list such as Business Analyst and Relationship Banker.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 21:40

  • It's Time For NASA To Step Aside And Let Private Industry Take Us To Mars
    It’s Time For NASA To Step Aside And Let Private Industry Take Us To Mars

    Authored by David Williams via RealClear Wire (emphasis ours)

    Once again, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is bilking taxpayers to infinity and beyond. NASA has been busy preparing for the Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, which is designed to collect samples of Martian soil to determine whether there is life on the Red Planet. According to a recent report, costs are through the stratosphere. The independent review board tasked with evaluating the program concluded in the review that the mission has been marred by “unrealistic budget and schedule expectations from the beginning.” The reviewers found that there is “a near zero probability” that the mission will launch by NASA’s stated 2028 goal. It’s time for NASA to ditch its costly payload and commit to keeping costs down to earth.

    For years, NASA has been planning and studying how best to return samples from the Martian surface. Former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine even called the endeavor, “a civilization-level changing capability” that may “help us become the first to discover life on another planet.” But talk is cheap, unlike the projected program costs that won’t stop rising. According to a report released by independent reviewers in 2020, the MSR mission was slated to cost $3.8 to $4.4 billion. By June 2023, NASA was busy pushing back against credible reports that the cost had ballooned to $8 to $9 billion. The latest report identifies an upper bound of $11 billion, further eroding the credibility of an agency notorious for underestimating costs.

    NASA could lower costs by moving the launch of the lander and orbiter to 2030, but even then, the mission would likely cost at least $8 billion and require $1 billion in steady annual spending between fiscal years 2025 and 2028. The report authors miss an important opportunity to hold NASA accountable for their galactic blunders. Rather than critically assess the importance of the mission, the authors warn that, by abandoning the MSR mission, the US would “abandon…the preeminent role that JFK ascribed to the scientific exploration of space…” At a time when multiple private companies are charting missions to Mars, it is unclear why it is the job of taxpayers to foot the bill for this technical, challenging task. These private ventures have every incentive to keep costs under control, unlike an agency known for chronic cost overruns.

    NASA’s mission back to the moon has already been plagued by scheduling delays and cost overruns. Taxpayers will likely have to shell out $100 billion before another “small step” can happen. According to a new audit by NASA’s Inspector General (IG), the agency’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket slated to ferry astronauts to the moon is an astounding $6 billion over budget. NASA had originally thought that using some of its older technologies (e.g., Space Shuttle and Constellation Programs) would save the mission money and incorporated these savings into initial cost estimates. But “the complexity of developing, updating, and integrating new systems along with heritage components proved to be much greater than anticipated” and costs have skyrocketed out of control. NASA has also had an exceptionally difficult time keeping its contractors at budget. The IG notes, “NASA used cost-plus contracts at times where we believe fixed-price contracts should have been considered to potentially reduce costs, including the addition of 18 new production engines under the RS-25 Restart and Production contract and acquisition of Artemis IV booster long-lead materials under the BPOC letter contract.” Award fees are out of control, and contractors have no incentive to adhere to a bottom line. The IG found that NASA has already spent $40 billion to get astronauts back to the moon and will likely spend close to $100 billion total on the endeavor.

    The relevant question is not whether missions to the moon or Mars should happen, but who should blaze the path into the cosmos. NASA has all the wrong incentives that enable cost overruns and mission creep. Funding forays into space is a mission for investors, not taxpayers.

    David Williams is the president of the Taxpayers Protection Alliance. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 21:15

  • Ejected For The Last Time: Netflix Officially Pulls Plug On DVD Business
    Ejected For The Last Time: Netflix Officially Pulls Plug On DVD Business

    25 years after launching its DVD-by-mail rental service, Netflix is finally pulling the plug on what has become a mere hobby to the global streaming juggernaut.

    As announced earlier this year, the company will be shipping its final disc on Friday, September 29, marking the end of the iconic red envelopes that paved the way from brick-and-mortar movie rental (RIP Blockbuster) to the age of limitless streaming.

    As Statista’s Felix Richter reports, the end of the DVD-by-mail service has been a long time coming, and if anything, it lasted longer than many people would have expected. After all, it’s been more than 15 years since Netflix introduced video streaming and 12 years since the company (controversially at the time) split the DVD business from the streaming service. Back then, the streaming part got to keep the Netflix name, while the DVD business was renamed Qwikster, albeit just for one very turbulent month.

    “DVD by mail may not last forever, but we want it to last as long as possible,” Netflix co-founder and then CEO Reed Hastings said in a blog post at the time, before explaining in more detail why the company is going all in on streaming: “For the past five years, my greatest fear at Netflix has been that we wouldn’t make the leap from success in DVDs to success in streaming. Most companies that are great at something – like AOL dialup or Borders bookstores – do not become great at new things people want (streaming for us) because they are afraid to hurt their initial business. Eventually these companies realize their error of not focusing enough on the new thing, and then the company fights desperately and hopelessly to recover. Companies rarely die from moving too fast, and they frequently die from moving too slowly.”

    And while Hasting’s big bet on streaming was controversial at the time, it did pay out handsomely, as Statista’s chart illustrates.

    Infographic: No Room for Nostalgia: Netflix Ejects DVD Business | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Back in 2011, Netflix’s revenue from its combined DVD and streaming service amounted to $3.2 billion. Last year, the company made $31.5 billion from streaming alone, with the DVD business contributing less than $150 million or 0.5 percent to Netflix’s total revenue.

    While immensely popular in its day, the DVD-by-mail business could never have scaled the way that streaming has.

    In January 2016, Netflix went live in 130 countries simultaneously. Try doing that with a DVD-by-mail service.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 20:50

  • US Military-Sanctioned Diversity Initiatives Are Out Of Control
    US Military-Sanctioned Diversity Initiatives Are Out Of Control

    Authored by James Fitzpatrick via RealClear Wire,

    As those who have ever served in the military know, the United States Armed Forces is one of the most culturally and socioeconomically diverse institutions in America. It is full of patriotic Americans from all walks of life who come together to serve their country, fight for it, and ultimately die for it if called to. To have served in the military in any form is to be a member of an exclusive club in this country. Although there are some barriers to entry, race is not among them.

    The Armed Forces have also provided countless opportunities for citizens in our nation who—through hard work, grit, and merit–rise through the ranks, provide a meaningful and fulfilling life for themselves and their families, and are justly proud of their calling. No matter their race, Americans have found comfort in the idea that if you are willing to work and serve your country with honor, the military will reward merit. 

    Since January 2021, the Biden administration has made a concerted effort to inject “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion,” (DEI) into almost every facet of military life. This includes mandatory trainings, a DoD-wide “Equity Action Plan” and an entire day dedicated to “Leadership Stand-Down to Address Extremism in the Force.” Recently, this radical DEI advocacy was taken to a new level.

    On August 9, 2022, in his previous role as Chief of Staff of the Air Force, CQ Brown sent a memo to both the Headquarters Offices for the Air Force Academy and the Air Education and Training Command titled “Officer Source of Commission Applicant Pool Goals,” the memo directed officials at those institutions to “develop a diversity and inclusion outreach plan aimed at achieving these goals no later than 30 September 2022.” Among these “goals” Brown directed the offices to implement specific racial quotas broken down by percentage for each race. For example, the goal for “White” officer candidates is 67.5% and for “Black/African American” officer candidates is 13%.

    This is disturbing for several reasons and could be potentially catastrophic for the reputation of the military at a time when recruitment and retention is at an all-time low. Just this week, the Navy reported that it will miss its recruiting goal by 7,000 sailors this year and the Air Force reported that it will miss its recruiting goal for the first time since 1999.

    First, the military is one of the last institutions that Americans revere. A July 2023 Gallup Poll found that 60% of Americans have a “high confidence” in the military. This is a good thing and is likely due to the military having a reputation for being a nonpolitical meritocracy where decisions are made in the best interest of protecting the country and not based on ideology.

    Second, our military exists to protect the American people, our homeland, our interests, allies abroad, neutralize our enemies wherever they hide, and ensure a safe and prosperous future for our children. We will do this by finding, enlisting, training, and retaining the best and brightest men and women the country has to offer regardless of their race. Straying from that principle in the name of filling racial quotas is a disservice to the American taxpayer and makes Americans less safe.

    Third, this directive is potentially illegal on its face. The United States Equal Opportunity Commission states on its website, “It is illegal for an employer to discriminate against a job applicant because of his or her race, color, religion, sex (including gender identity, sexual orientation, and pregnancy), national origin, age (40 or older), disability or genetic information.” With this memo, Brown is advocating for just that. Air Force Officer applicants would be literally discriminated against because of their race if this new directive is implemented. There is seemingly no way to meet the quotas outlined in the directive without engaging in discrimination against certain applicants because of their race, in violation of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

    Most members of the Air Force and the military generally are honest, hard-working people who do not believe our future airmen should be reduced to racial statistics. Recently promoted, Brown will now leave behind this divisive policy and force those below him, who likely had nothing to do with the idea, to implement the policy. This is wrong.

    We must do better. That is why my organization, Center to Advance Security in America, has filed a series of FOIA requests to further investigate the implementation of these discriminatory policies.

    The American military is the most powerful force for good the world has ever seen. If we want it to remain that way, we must shift our focus back to recruiting and retaining based on skill, merit, and future abilities – not race. It is not too late to shift course. If we do not, these out-of-control initiatives will continue, and military readiness will suffer.

    *  *  *

    James Fitzpatrick is an Army Veteran and the Director of the Center to Advance Security in America (CASA), an organization dedicated to improving the safety and security of the American people.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 20:25

  • House Passes Rep. Marjorie Greene's Amendment To Cut Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's Salary To $1
    House Passes Rep. Marjorie Greene’s Amendment To Cut Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s Salary To $1

    Authored by Jana J. Pruet via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    House Republicans have approved an amendment to slash U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s annual salary to no more than $1. The move comes as Congress remains in a gridlock over the budget, which could lead to a government shutdown.

    Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin answers questions during a press briefing after participating in a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia on July 18, 2023. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

    Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on Wednesday introduced the measure, which was approved in a voice vote as part of the 2024 fiscal year appropriations bill for the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD). (pdf)

    “I’m proud to let you know my amendment to FIRE Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin just passed on the House floor,” Ms. Greene wrote on X following the amendment’s passage.

    “Under his failed leadership, our military is being destroyed, and he doesn’t deserve to serve any longer. This is the first time in the 118th Congress the Holman rule has been used to hold a Biden official accountable. It’s time for more,” she continued.

    The Holman Rule is a provision that allows members of Congress to reduce the salary, fire federal employees, or cut specific programs during the appropriations process. The provision was first adopted in 1876. It has been dropped and reinstated at various times since its inception. Earlier this year, the GOP-led House revived the measure for the 118th Congress. The order was not adopted for the 116th and 117th Congresses. (pdf)

    “Secretary Austin has not fulfilled his job duties,” Ms. Greene said on the House floor. “As a matter of fact, he’s destroying our military. During Secretary Austin’s tenure, military recruitment has reached crisis levels of low recruitment.”

    Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Minn.) spoke in opposition to the move, citing Mr. Austin’s decades-long military career.

    “Secretary Austin has dedicated his life to service in the United States,” Ms. McCollum said in a speech on the House floor. “For 41 years, he has served in the United States Army, which began as an appointment to West Point and rose to the rank of four-star general.”

    Mr. Austin, who led the withdrawal from Afghanistan, has an annual salary of more than $221,000.

    “None of the funds made available by this Act may be used to pay Defense Secretary Lloyd James Austin III a salary that exceeds $1,” the provision reads. (pdf)

    Ms. Greene, along with other conservatives in the House, has frequently criticized Mr. Austin’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. More than 180 people, including 13 service members, were killed by suicide bombers at Kabul Airport during the evacuation that marked the disastrous end of the 20-year war against terror.

    Austin Faces Impeachment

    The Pentagon chief is also facing impeachment for “high crimes and misdemeanors” regarding his actions leading up to and during the military’s exodus from Afghanistan.

    Late last month, Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) introduced articles of impeachment accusing Mr. Austin of “dereliction of duty including and resulting in abandonment of Americans in Afghanistan.”

    “It’s not enough for Congress to hold committee hearings,” Mr. Mills said in a news release on Aug. 28. “We must start taking real action to address the complete failure of this administration.”

    In December 2020, then-president-elect Joe Biden nominated Mr. Austin, who was retired at the time, to lead the Defense Department. He accepted the nomination and was confirmed by the Senate on Jan. 22, 2021, in a vote of 93–2.

    “Despite having nearly 8 months as Secretary of Defense to prepare for and execute a smooth and orderly departure from Afghanistan, Secretary Austin failed to adequately prepare for such a withdrawal, including through his decisions during the catastrophic events of July and August 2021, which initially resulted in as many as 9,000 Americans being abandoned in Afghanistan,” reads House Resolution 666. (pdf)

    “These actions recklessly abandoned the interests, security, and values of the United States of America and contributed to the unnecessary deaths of 13 United States servicemembers as well as uncounted American civilians who were targeted and murdered by the Taliban,” the document continues.

    Earlier this year, the State Department released its “After Action Review on Afghanistan,” which analyzed the decisions made between January and August leading up to the withdrawal (pdf). More than 150 voluntary interviews with current and former State Department officials, along with “relevant” documents and other materials, were compiled for the report.

    The report states that decisions by the Trump and Biden administrations contributed to the disastrous situation in Afghanistan.

    “The decisions of both President [Donald] Trump and President Biden to end the U.S. military mission posed significant challenges for the Department as it sought to maintain a robust diplomatic and assistance presence in Kabul and provide continued support to the Afghan government and people,” reads the report.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 19:40

  • These Are The World's Least Affordable Housing Markets
    These Are The World’s Least Affordable Housing Markets

    When considering where to live, big cities are attractive to people for a number of reasons, but affordability is usually not one of them.

    In the following map, Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop highlights, using data from Demographia, the major cities ranked the worst for housing market affordability on a global basis.

    Unaffordable Housing Markets

    Demographia’s report looks at middle-income housing affordability in 94 cities in eight countries, many of which are known for having pricy housing markets:

    •  Australia

    •  Canada

    •  China (Hong Kong)

    •  Ireland

    •  New Zealand

    •  Singapore

    •  United Kingdom

    •  United States

    For the 2023 report, it uses 2022 Q3 prices and income levels for evaluation, dividing the median house price by the gross median household income to find the median multiple for housing.

    And for the first time in the history of Demographia’s reporting, not a single of the 94 cities scored below 3.0, the cutoff to be deemed “affordable.” Here’s a closer look at the least affordable markets in 2023:

    For well over a decade now, Hong Kong has taken the top spot as the least affordable market globally. The only city to become even less affordable year over year was Los Angeles.

    On the flip side, the most affordable city in the U.S. was Pittsburgh, with the median multiple sitting at 3.1. As people start to get priced out of certain markets, they may start to move to these more affordable cities.

    Zooming out farther, here are the housing market affordability scores for all eight jurisdictions covered in this report:

    Again, none of these countries are considered affordable, but within each there is a wide range of scores. Hong Kong is significantly less affordable than the second-place New Zealand and third-place Australia.

    Scores across Canada, Singapore, the UK, Ireland and the U.S., however, are quite similar.

    Better Cities for Housing Market Affordability

    While many people flock to big cities, evidenced by the fact that many of the least affordable places are also among the most populous, others are opting to live somewhere more in their price range.

    Here’s a glance at some of the most affordable housing markets worldwide:

    Rank City Housing Median Multiple
    1 🇺🇸 Pittsburgh, PA 3.1
    2 🇺🇸 Rochester, NY 3.2
    3 🇺🇸 Cleveland, OH 3.5
    3 🇺🇸 St. Louis, MO-IL 3.5
    5 🇺🇸 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 3.6
    5 🇺🇸 Oklahoma City, OK 3.6
    7 🇺🇸 Buffalo, NY 3.7
    8 🇺🇸 Detroit, MI 3.8
    9 🇺🇸 Louisville, KY-IN 3.9
    9 🇺🇸 Tusla, OK 3.9
    11 🇨🇦 Edmonton, AB 4.0
    11 🇺🇸 Hartford, CT 4.0
    11 🇺🇸 Kansas City, MO-KS 4.0
    14 🇺🇸 Columbus, OH 4.1
    14 🇺🇸 Grand Rapid, MI 4.1
    14 🇺🇸 Indianapolis, IN 4.1
    14 🇺🇸 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI 4.1
    14 🇺🇸 Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD 4.1

    All of the top 18 most affordable cities covered in the report are located in North America.

    While big, global cities will certainly continue to attract talent and residents from all over, the more affordable cities may gain new residents for more practical financial reasons.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 19:20

  • Mike Lindell Says MyPillow 'Crippled' By Major Credit Card Company
    Mike Lindell Says MyPillow ‘Crippled’ By Major Credit Card Company

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell said Monday that his company has been “crippled” by American Express after it allegedly cut MyPillow’s credit line by about 90 percent.

    Mike Lindell at a resort in Dana Point, Calif., on Jan. 27, 2023. (Mei Li/The Epoch Times)

    Mr. Lindell, a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump, has long said that extensive campaign is being waged by retailers and financial institutions to cancel him and his business ventures following his claims after the 2020 election.

    “We really need everybody’s help right now. We have things going on I’m going to let you all know this week,” he told Steve Bannon on his “War Room” Rumble show. “American Express, I wasn’t going to say this, we’ve been with them 15 years and we do all of our online marketing, all our shipping with them, out of the blue they took our credit line from a million dollars down to $100,000, just cripples MyPillow.”

    He added that the credit card firm lowered the line for “no reason” and “no explanation was given, adding it “just dropped it down last Tuesday.” The Epoch Times has contacted American Express, which hasn’t released a public statement on Mr. Lindell’s statement, for comment on the matter.

    The move, he said, is part of an “all-out attack on MyPillow,” saying his company was also targeted by another company that he did not disclose in recent days.

    Over the summer, Mr. Lindell announced he would be auctioning off 700 pieces of equipment, including forklifts, desks, and cubicle units. Speaking to a local newspaper in Minneapolis, he said the auction comes after he said MyPillow lost $100 million in revenue due to retailers and other companies halting sales of his products.

    “It was a massive, massive cancellation,” he told the Minneapolis Star Tribune in July. “We lost $100 million from attacks by the box stores, the shopping networks, the shopping channels, all of them did cancel culture on us.”

    According to a search of Walmart’s website, the big box retailer doesn’t sell MyPillow products. The company said last year it would stop selling MyPillow items at brick-and-mortar locations. In January 2022, one of his banks, the Minnesota Bank & Trust, described the MyPillow CEO as a “reputation risk” and cut ties with him weeks later.

    Other retailers like Bed Bath & Beyond, Wayfair, H-E-B, and Kohl’s also stopped selling Mr. Lindell’s products, he has previously said. As one of the first companies to cut ties with MyPillow—days after the Jan. 6 Capitol breach—Bed Bath said it would discontinue sales due to a “number of underperforming items and brands.”

    And earlier this year, Mr. Lindell told Business Insider that he had to sell a “building I had in Savage, in Minnesota, in October. And I had to borrow 2 million too. I’ve spent it all on fighting for this country.” In March, he told a left-wing news outlet that his business is doing fine after launching what he described as “MyPillow 2.0.”

    About a year ago, the pillow magnate also said that agents with the FBI seized his cellphone at a fast-food restaurant, also posting a grand jury subpoena from a federal prosecutor in Colorado and what appeared to be a search warrant. The Denver FBI field office told news outlets at the time that “without commenting on this specific matter, I can confirm that the FBI was at that location executing a search warrant authorized by a federal judge.”

    “The FBI came after me and took my phone,” Mr. Lindell wrote on Facebook. “They surrounded me in a Hardee’s and took my phone that I run all my business, everything with. What they’ve done is weaponize—the FBI, it’s disgusting. I don’t have a computer. Everything I do [is] off that phone. Everything was on there. And they told me not to tell anybody. Here’s an order: ‘Don’t tell anybody!’ ‘OK, I won’t!’ Well, I am.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 19:00

  • Blinken: China Is The Number One Threat To US-Led 'Liberal World Order'
    Blinken: China Is The Number One Threat To US-Led ‘Liberal World Order’

    Washington has been sinking billions of dollars into the Ukraine conflict, in the name of defeating and ‘weakening’ Russia, and yet Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week highlighted China as the real “threat” to the US and the ‘liberal world order’. 

    Biden’s top diplomat was interviewed by The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, who asked among other things whether Russia or China is a bigger “threat” to the United States. Blinken responded by saying China has a “much greater ability certainly than Russia to try to shape what the international system looks like.”

    Via Reuters

    In reference to China, Blinken answered: “I think they want a world order, but the world order that they seek is profoundly illiberal in nature; ours is liberal with a small ‘L.’  And that’s the fundamental difference.”

    On the question of what motivates China, Blinken said, “I think that what it seeks is to be the dominant power in the world militarily, economically, diplomatically.”

    Below is the full exchange from the transcript: 

    GOLDBERG:  Is Russia a bigger threat to the U.S. and to Western democratic interests now or is China actually the number one?

    SECRETARY BLINKEN:  They’re very different in their nature.  The – China has – by its military capacity, its economic capacity, although a little bit more challenged these days, its diplomatic capacity, its presence around the world – much greater ability certainly than Russia to try to shape what the international system looks like.  And I think they want a world order, but the world order that they seek is profoundly illiberal in nature; ours is liberal with a small “L.”  And that’s the fundamental difference.  The world that we hope to shape looks very different from the world that they might prefer so ‑-

    GOLDBERG:  What does China want, ultimately?

    SECRETARY BLINKEN:  I think that what it seeks is to be the dominant power in the world militarily, economically, diplomatically.  And depending on the purpose that it brings to that, that can move things in one direction or another.  But I think fundamentally that’s what China is seeking, that’s what Xi Jinping is seeking, and in a sense that’s not a surprise.  There’s an extraordinary history in China, and I think if you look and listen to the Chinese leaders, they are seeking to recover what they believe is their rightful place in the world.

    This does reflect recent and broader Washington defense and think tank establishment thinking which sees China as the most severe long-term threat to the US, with Russia in second.

    For example, a 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) document produced by the Pentagon identified China as the “most comprehensive and serious challenge to US national security strategy” – again despite the bulk of the defense budget and foreign aid now being focused on Ukraine. Some Congressional hawks, particularly among Republicans, have questioned why more isn’t being spent to bolster Taiwan and counter China.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 18:40

  • COVID-19 Vaccine Found In The Hearts Of Dead People: Study
    COVID-19 Vaccine Found In The Hearts Of Dead People: Study

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

    COVID-19 vaccine was detected in patients who died within a month of vaccination, according to a new study.

    COVID-19 vaccines in Massachusetts in a file image. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

    U.S. researchers analyzed tissue samples from the autopsies of 25 people, including 20 who were vaccinated.

    Samples from the hearts of three patients, all of whom died within 30 days of a Pfizer shot, tested positive for messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA).

    Eight bilateral axillary lymph node samples, from people who died within 30 days of a Moderna or Pfizer vaccine, also tested positive. The companies’ shots utilize mRNA.

    The research shows “the vaccine can persist for up to 30 days, including in the heart,” Dr. James Stone, with the departments of pathology at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times via email.

    The study was published by npj Vaccines. Authors declared no conflicts of interest. They said the research was supported by Massachusetts General Hospital, which is in Boston.

    In testing of heart and bilateral axillary lymph node tissues from other vaccinated people who died, no vaccine was detected.

    Additionally, no vaccine was detected in the liver, spleen, or mediastinal lymph nodes—vaccine was detected in the liver and spleen in preclinical rodent studies before—nor was any detected in tissues from the unvaccinated patients.

    The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are known to cause myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation that can result in death.

    The people who had mRNA detected in the heart did not have myocarditis, though they did have detectable heart injuries, researchers found.

    The researchers said they believed the heart injuries stemmed from underlying diseases and not the vaccines.

    “There is no indication as yet that the vaccine in the heart is causing any problems in these patients; neither the causes of death nor the causes of the myocardial injury were linked to the vaccines in that study,” said Dr. Stone, one of the authors of the paper.

    A health care worker prepares a dose Pfizer/BioNTEch COVID-19 vaccine at The Michener Institute, in Toronto, Canada, on Dec.14, 2020. (Carlos Osorio/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

    That position was challenged by Dr. Clare Craig, a British pathologist who reviewed the research.

    “The vaccine should not have been there. There was evidence of heart damage. Those three people are now dead,” Dr. Craig told The Epoch Times in a message.

    She said the researchers were setting too high of a bar for causality.

    “At postmortem if there is significant narrowing of the coronary arteries then heart damage is attributed to it on the balance of probabilities. Here this is a clear cut association, an unusual picture of myocardial injury, and a failure to call it out for what it is,” Dr. Craig said.

    More on Research

    The tissues were collected from autopsies performed between January 2021 and February 2022 at the Massachusetts General Hospital. Researchers excluded tissues from some dead people, including from patients who had no clear history of vaccination or non-vaccination and those who had a documented prior COVID-19 infection.

    The researchers wanted to test the tissue for vaccine in light of research that has found both spike protein and mRNA persisting in axillary lymph nodes and blood for weeks or even months after vaccination. The testing would help “gain a better understanding of the biodistribution and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines,” they said. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19.

    Researchers ended up with tissues from 20 vaccinated patients, including six who received one dose, 12 who received two doses, and two who received three doses. They also formed a control group of five unvaccinated patients.

    Six bilateral axillary lymph node samples were available for people vaccinated with Moderna’s shot. Two tested positive for the vaccine. Thirteen were available for people vaccinated with Pfizer’s shot. Six tested positive for the vaccine.

    Overall, of the 11 bilateral axillary lymph node samples from patients who died within 30 days of a shot, eight tested positive. None of the samples from patients who died beyond 30 days of vaccination tested positive.

    Researchers also examined samples from each of the vaccinated people from the cardiac left ventricle and cardiac right ventricle. Of those, four samples tested positive across three patients. These were the three who received Pfizer’s shot within 30 days of dying. The samples also tested negative for COVID-19.

    Vaccine was not detected in any of the unvaccinated people.

    The vaccinated patients were on average older, with a mean age of 64 compared to 57. A higher percentage—55 percent to 20 percent—had recent heart injury.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 18:20

  • Is Google Rigging The 2024 Election? The Controversy Over Invisible Republicans
    Is Google Rigging The 2024 Election? The Controversy Over Invisible Republicans

    A new report from the right-leaning Media Research Center concludes that Google is burying search results for 2024 presidential candidates, but an expert in search engine optimization has suggested it’s unlikely.

    According to various tests conducted by MRC and Just the News, the online visibility of these sites in generic searches for the GOP’s 2024 bench is practically nil, and not significantly better for RFK Jr., Biden’s primary challenge on the left.

    Google’s search engine failed to produce even-handed results in multiple searches performed by MRC Free Speech America over the course of a week prior to today’s Republican presidential primary debate. Researchers broadly searched for “presidential campaign websites” as well as two additional searches specifying the party affiliation of the candidates. When MRC searched for “republican presidential campaign websites,” only two candidates’ websites appeared on the first page in the search results — a Democrat candidate and a Republican who is polling at less than half a percent. -MRC

    Both MRC and Senator Ted Cruz claim this is unambiguous proof of Google’s bias.

    “Google is either the most incompetent search engine on the planet, or it is intentional. This is not a coincidence,” states Dan Schneider, MRC Free Speech America Vice President, following the group’s extensive analysis of search tests conducted between September 20 and 25.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In 2018, Trump accused Google of “rigging” search results against him.

    Google responded at the time, saying that “Search is not used to set a political agenda and we don’t bias our results toward any political ideology.”

    In 2021, the Daily Mail sued Google for ‘illegally building its dominance in ad tech industry by harming rivals, bid-rigging on ad auctions and manipulating news search results.”

    And of course, former Alphabet Chairman Eric Schmidt – who said the Trump administration would do “evil things” – was an advisor to the 2016 Clinton campaign.

    A simple matter of SEO?

    While the evidence certainly looks damning, Just the News spoke with Eric Goldman, an SEO researcher and co-director of Santa Clara University’s High Tech Law Institute, who proposed several benign possibilities to explain these search anomalies. Goldman argues for the necessity of a comprehensive academic study into search engine indexing and ordering, terming MRC’s tests an “advocacy stunt”.

    “Search engine indexing and ordering is the kind of topic that would benefit from a proper academic study, not an advocacy stunt,” he said.

    Yet, Google also told Just the News that it couldn’t explain the replicated results until Friday.

    Meanwhile, Google, the world’s dominant search engine, is grappling with a Justice Department antitrust trial. The company’s explanations of its search dominance have raised eyebrows, bringing more scrutiny upon its practices. With accusations flying, former Psychology Today editor-in-chief Robert Epstein states, “Google poses a serious threat to democracy.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 18:00

  • Tale Of Two Scandals: The Striking Similarities In The Menendez & Biden Cases
    Tale Of Two Scandals: The Striking Similarities In The Menendez & Biden Cases

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Below is my column in USA Today on what the Menendez indictment might say about the Hunter Biden investigation. From the luxury cars to massive amounts of money to even their choice of counsel, the two scandals have striking similarities.

    Here is the column:

    In February 2019, Sen. Bob Menendez was having nightmares. The Democratic senator from New Jersey said he was haunted by a question that “keeps me up at night” — whether President Donald Trump was compromised by the Russian government because of past secret dealings.

    Menendez’s restless nights also may have had something to do with the fact that at the time, he was allegedly accepting lavish gifts from various sources in exchange for using his Senate seat to bestow favors.

    The indictment of Menendez and his wife last week included details of alleged bribes that went to the senator in exchange for revealing sensitive, nonpublic information to Egyptian contacts less than a year before his sleep-deprived speech.

    Menendez denied the accusations on Friday. However, even if half of this indictment is true, Menendez is toast. He was able to dodge a bullet in 2017 when a jury hung over a separate series of corruption charges involving lavish gifts. This time, the Justice Department says it has photos of thousands of dollars in cash stuffed in clothing, a luxury car, gold bars and other gifts.

    That would keep anyone up at night, but there may be one other insomniac this week: Hunter Biden’s lawyer Abbe Lowell.

    The Menendez indictment likely proved chilling reading for Lowell, who not only represents President Joe Biden’s son but also represented Menendez in his prior bribery trial.

    There are striking similarities between the Menendez and Biden cases.

    While Hunter Biden was allegedly selling access to and influence with his father, he also allegedly received massive payments. His associate Devon Archer told Congress that they were selling the Biden family “brand,” and that Joe Biden was “the brand.”

    Like Menendez, Hunter Biden allegedly received a luxury car from his foreign clients. For the senator, the Justice Department says it was a $60,000 Mercedes-Benz. For the president’s son, investigators say it was a $142,000 Fisker sports car.

    Menendez allegedly received gold bars worth up to $120,000. Biden received a diamond allegedly worth $80,000.

    Indeed, the alleged object of these payments was influence with then-Vice President Biden, when he was the presiding officer of the Senate. Menendez was one of the nation’s most powerful senators at the time.

    There are also dealings that reference Hunter Biden and his associates in the Menendez matter. When the senator was trying to arrange for Joe Biden to host a foreign event, an aide to Menendez reportedly reached out to Hunter Biden’s associates.

    While the president’s son is accused of peddling influence, in Menendez’s case, it is his wife who is accused of acting as a go-between with those trying to buy the senator’s attention. Nadine Menendez allegedly had lunches and countless communications with people, who, according to the indictment, sought favors from the senator.

    Nadine Menendez allegedly knew the co-defendants before she married the senator in 2020. The couple met at an IHOP, but he fittingly proposed to her in 2019 at the Taj Mahal on a trip to India. The setting for the proposal would foretell the lavish gifts to come.

    Like Hunter, Nadine started an international consulting company, Strategic International Business Consultants, after being unemployed before meeting the senator. She found ample business.

    Like Hunter, she is accused of marketing her ability to deliver access to her husband. In March 2020, she allegedly texted an Egyptian official that “anytime you need anything you have my number and we will make everything happen.”

    There is of course a major difference between the Biden and Menendez cases: Menendez and his wife are being criminally charged for their alleged influence peddling.

    The Justice Department has not only let the statute of limitations run out on the most serious tax charges against Hunter Biden, but it also has not charged the president’s son under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.

    Despite charging figures like Paul Manafort for similar accusations, prosecutors have avoided charges in the Biden case that would put Hunter at the center of a corruption prosecution. Instead, they sought an embarrassing “sweetheart deal” that collapsed in court.

    In the Menendez case, investigators left no stone unturned in tracing gifts and money. In the Biden case, a special agent with the IRS testified before Congress that the Bidens were tipped off on planned searches and an attempt to interview the president’s son.

    As the Justice Department grinds Menendez into a fine powder, it is likely to draw more attention to the relatively light touch shown Hunter Biden. It is, as Menendez said on the Senate floor in 2019, the type of thing that keeps you up at night.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 17:40

  • Philadelphia City Council Votes 14-1 To Ban Safe Injection Sites
    Philadelphia City Council Votes 14-1 To Ban Safe Injection Sites

    It is possible that the far left sociopaths running most major American cities have finally had enough?

    That could be the case in Philadelphia, where hours after large portions of downtown were ransacked and looted as part of “protests”, the city’s town council voted to ban safe injection sites from opening up in the city.

    Councilmember Quetcy Lozada told CBS Philadelphia, who reported the decision: “This is a ban on being able to put a center like this one in a community.”

    “This bill puts the decision in the hands of people, the people who live there and would be directly impacted by it,” Lozada added. 

    The bill “creates a zoning rule in nine of 10 city districts prohibiting the sites”, CBS Philadelphia reported. The 14-1 vote overrode a veto by far left Mayor Jim Kenney, the article says. 

    Now, organizations would have to get a zoning variance for such a facility, and that would require community approval, the report says. 

    But the ban wasn’t without its opponents, with some in the city coming before the city council to argue the need for such sites. 

    Holiday Davis, of the Soul Collective (whatever that means), stated: “Overdose prevention sites offer an opportunity to bring those activities inside, offer safe disposal of needles and other litter, and offer pathways to medical care and drug treatment. And most importantly, save lives.”

    Kensington resident Moses Santana added: “It’s gonna get people off the streets. It’s going to get people out of the park, get needles off the street, get people into treatment.”

    Councilmember Jim Harrity was one of several to retort, stating: “The way we do that is through long-term recovery. Not giving them a space where they can continue to harm themselves.”

    Lozada concluded: “Push for enforcement in that community. We need to bring back the conversation of prevention and recovery.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 17:20

  • Parents, Teachers Start Winning Court Battles Against Secret Gender Transition Policies
    Parents, Teachers Start Winning Court Battles Against Secret Gender Transition Policies

    Authored by Brad Jones via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A revolt against government policies that many say usurp parental authority is spreading across the nation—especially in blue states where lawmakers have promoted transgender ideology and “gender-affirming care”—according to parents, attorneys, and teachers.

    (Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock)

    For more than a year, California parents have shown up in droves at legislative hearings and phoned in by the hundreds to protest policies that encourage schools to keep social gender transitions of children secret. Teachers also have begun to refuse to hide information about a child’s gender identity from parents.

    Meanwhile, Democratic members of the California Legislative LGBTQ Caucus have spearheaded legislation supporting so-called gender-affirming care, especially for children, touting it as a “first-in-the-nation” model.

    Parental rights groups such as Our Duty have pushed back against the model, while groups such as Planned Parenthood, Equality California, and others support it.

    California school districts claim that they’re required by law to keep gender transitions secret from parents unless a child wants to tell his or her parents. But recent court rulings tell a different story.

    Landmark Case

    A federal judge on Sept. 14 blocked California’s Escondido Union School District from punishing two teachers who refused to comply with guidance issued by the California Department of Education that encourages educators to keep gender transitions of students secret from their parents.

    Judge Roger T. Benitez granted a preliminary injunction (pdf) against the state and the Escondido Union School District stating the policy is unconstitutional.

    The teachers, Elizabeth Mirabelli and Lori Ann West, claimed the state and district violated their constitutional and religious rights. They were both placed on paid administrative leave after their lawsuit was filed in April but are negotiating with the district to get back to work in the classroom.

    (L–R) Teacher Lori Ann West, attorney Paul Jonna, and teacher Elizabeth Mirabelli. A federal judge on Sept. 14 blocked a school district in Escondido, Calif., from punishing the two teachers for refusing to keep gender transitions of students secret from their parents. (Courtesy of Paul Jonna)

    The teachers told The Epoch Times that gender transitions among girls at their middle school are a “social experiment” that has become a social contagion.

    When the girls go to the school counselors they get “so much praise and affirming” and are celebrated as “brave” and “honest,” Ms. West said.

    “It’s only girls at our school. They eat it up. They get so much attention. They see one kid gets this, and they kind of follow along. It’s infecting them. It’s spreading.”

    Until recently, it was rare to have even one child identify as transgender, but it’s becoming much more common, Ms. West said.

    “I had seven girls in one class that wanted to be trans all of a sudden,” she said.

    Ms. Mirabelli said gender transitions are “trending” in California public schools.

    California State Superintendent of Schools Tony Thurmond reads from a book in the LGBTQ+ genre to students at Nystrom Elementary School in Richmond, Calif., on May 17, 2022. Thousands of LGBTQ+ books from Gender Nation were donated to 234 elementary schools in nine California districts. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    “Schools are now the social engineer,” she said. “They’re socially transitioning children, and as they move through the social transition, the next level is, of course, the medical transition.

    “We can’t just stand by while all this is going on.

    “I had a trans kid in my class. This kid was a fantastic student, one of my favorites—worked hard, good grades, well-behaved. We had a great relationship. I knew that little girl was not a boy, and in the not-too-distant future she looked in the mirror and said, ‘Hey, I’m pretty. Wait a minute.”

    Ms. Mirabelli said she wants no part of putting children on a “conveyor belt” toward puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and eventually surgical transitions that they might regret later in life.

    “These kids are 10, 11, and 12 years old. They’re in the throes of adolescence. We’ve been teaching adolescent children for decades. We’ve seen it all. We know that they go through a lot,” she said.

    To get to the bottom of why gender transitions are trending, she said, “Follow the money.”

    The so-called sex reassignment surgery market reached $2.1 billion last year in the United States and is expected to more than double to $5 billion by 2030, according to a 2022 report by business consulting firm Grand View Research. More research released by Acute Market Reports indicates that North America holds at least half of the global market share for so-called sex reassignment surgeries.

    According to the Gender Mapping Project, there were only “a handful” of gender clinics for children operating in North America a decade ago, but there are now more than 400 involved in what has become a multibillion-dollar industry, even as parts of Europe move away from the “affirmative care” model.

    A girl undergoes a transgender medical procedure, in a still from the documentary “Gender Transformation.” (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

    ‘Required’ Guidance

    Paul Jonna, a Thomas More Society attorney representing the teachers, told The Epoch Times that the ruling in favor of the teachers is significant.

    “This ruling could really set the framework for how this issue should be analyzed, not just in California, but everywhere,” he said.

    The state issued “very misleading” guidance in the form of an FAQ page to every school district in the state asserting that parental exclusion is required by California law under privacy rights for children and that it was required to keep students safe, he said.

    “They said it was nonbinding guidance, but they used words like ‘required’ and ‘must,’ and basically every school district interpreted it as binding,” Mr. Jonna said. “The [district] was convinced it was binding and said so at the hearing … but in fact, this was not mandatory.”

    The judge, he said, was deeply troubled over inconsistent positions that the state has taken and grilled state attorneys in the four-hour hearing on whether the policy was backed by law.

    “So, which is it?” the judge asked, according to the court transcript. “Is the FAQ binding on the school district or not?”

    Eventually, state attorneys agreed that the policy isn’t binding and doesn’t compel school districts to enact the rule.

    “The statist notion that governmental power should supersede parental authority in all cases because some parents abuse and neglect children is repugnant to American tradition,” Judge Benitez said, quoting the 1979 Supreme Court case Parham v. J.R.

    He added: “Isn’t that precisely what your rules does? … It basically says that all parents are presumed to be the enemy if the child simply says, ‘I don’t want my parents to know.’”

    The judge asked why parents, who are ultimately legally responsible for the care and nurturing of their children, are “cut out.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/29/2023 – 17:00

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Sep 29

Today’s News 29th September 2023

  • Bhandari: Canadians Have Put Canada On A Path To Inevitable Destruction
    Bhandari: Canadians Have Put Canada On A Path To Inevitable Destruction

    Authored by Jayant Bhandari via LewRockwell.com,

    Canada: The Great Replacement

    Canada’s population grew by more than one million in 2022. This increase was equivalent to 2.7%. Such a rate would double Canada’s population in 26 years.

    When I moved to Canada in 2003, its population was 32 million. Today, it is 40 million, an increase of 25%.

    Had immigration not occurred, the Canadian population would have fallen, given its fertility rate of 1.47, which itself would have been lower had immigration not occurred. But let us not get into the nitty-gritty when there is an 800-pound gorilla in the room.

    For those who don’t have a sense of numbers, more than one out of every four people in Canada arrived after my arrival twenty years back. As it stands today, 26% of Canadians are first-generation immigrants. 18% are second-generation. 32% of children under fifteen in 2021 were second-generation immigrants.

    My interest is not to get into statistical nuances but to show that nearly 50% of Canadians are first or second-generation immigrants. And immigration continues to ramp up, most of whom come from the Third World.

    Before the early 1970s, most immigrants came from Europe. Today, only 10% of the total immigrants come from Europe.

    This matters.

    Canada has irrevocably changed in just the two decades since I immigrated. It is said that a frog in a pot that is slowly getting boiled fails to realize that it is getting cooked. But political correctness has meant that Canadians fail to understand what is happening to Canada even when the proverbial pot is heating rapidly.

    Last year’s immigrants represented 200 countries of the world, representing 450 different mother tongues. India is by far the most significant source of immigration, accounting for 27% of total immigrants. A distant second is China, with 7%. Third is Afghanistan, with 5.4%. Fourth is Nigeria, with 5%.

    Brazil and South Korea have been kicked out of the top ten sources of immigration and replaced by Nigeria and Syria. 38% of immigrants are family sponsorships and refugees.

    If these nationalities didn’t shock you, perhaps political correctness has killed your cultural awareness. Indeed, when you stop speaking the truth, you eventually change your thinking. Or maybe you act as if this is nothing material, for you don’t want to be canceled or commit a thought crime.

    Western political correctness has metastasized into a puerile understanding of cultures. Even those who can see prefer to make money and maintain their lifestyles, their country houses, the size of their kitchen cabinets, and the schools their kids attend rather than speak up.

    Canadians have put Canada on a path to inevitable destruction.

    There is no history in human affairs when a society willingly gave itself away to foreigners. There is no history of a society maintaining any values once foreigners overtook it. Indeed, there is no history in human affairs where muti-culturalism and ethnic diversity have not led to massive civil conflicts, but Canadians love romanticizing these anti-values.

    Most reading this article haven’t experienced such an increase in immigrants. But your anecdotal experience is not the statistical reality. The composition of people you socialize with does not represent the ethnic proportion of the Canadian population.

    Put differently, the new immigrants often get ghettoized in areas you never visit. When you encounter them, your interaction will likely be short and superficial. But they have the same vote as you do. And they have no interest in European values. They are economic migrants without an interest in what provides nutrition to Canadian society. They have, at best, no interest or concept of Western philosophy.

    Canada now has massive ghettoes. Visit and soak in the Indian ghettos of Surrey, Brampton, or Richmond to get a sense of proportion and perspective. I mention the Indian ghettos, for I know them better, but you should also visit the Afghani, Syrian, Somalian, etc. ghettoes. If you do, you will realize that Canada is like a train constantly changing its passengers. For most Canadians, the passengers aren’t what they started with.

    Recently, Eritrean immigrants fought a pitched battle in Calgary. Khalistan’s posters can now be seen in many places. These don’t leave a lasting impression on native Canadians, but they must.

    I provided the statistics, but you must feel, smell, and sense it. You will emotionally realize that Canada is irredeemably on its way to an ethnically non-European majority in a few short years. Should this matter? Of course, it does. None of the 200 countries on the planet is a civilization and has a non-European or non-East Asian majority.

    Did I leave India because of its utterly venal and oppressive government? Not really. They are utterly stupid, and bribes take care of everything. But the character of the government is a symptom of the underlying society. It was the Indian society that I ran away from, which has no concept of honor, integrity, moral values, rationality, or interest in anything except the material, which is money and sex.

    More precisely, I ran away from Indians.

    With time, the institutions the British left behind have been hallowed out in India, and the civilizational constraints that they had imposed have fallen apart. With time, India is bound to become increasingly barbaric and savage. Not because of so much because of the Indian government but because of Indians.

    India provides 27% of Canada’s new immigrants.

    Most other immigrants come from other Third World hellholes and have similar cultural backgrounds, one rooted in materialism and the absence of civilizational constraints and moral values.

    Every Indian city today has at least one high-rise building devoted to housing agencies that help people immigrate to Canada, most offering help creating fake documents or getting admission to colleges structured not for education but for assisting people to stay in Canada long enough to become citizens.

    Crazy, isn’t it, that Canada has given itself away to those who faked documents? So much for the much-touted skilled-class immigrants!

    Canadians have no choice but to learn about India, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria, and other Third World countries. They should all be visiting India and sending their daughters and sons to know about it, for it is what they are bringing in. However, when they send their daughters, they should have male company. They should visit to learn what Europeans of the past understood, the wisdom that political correctness has erased from the Canadian psyche.

    A few years back, I went to an Indian event in South Vancouver. As happens in India, nothing worked. There was no coordination. What happened on the stage had nothing to do with the schedule. They played the wrong music. Then, they stopped it and ran around to correct it. Organizers openly argued with each other. They openly talked about how “we” should vote for members of “our Sikh” community in the government. Their swing vote already has a massive influence on the foreign policies of the Liberal and Conservative parties and NDP.

    Sometimes, Canadian airports and train stations look indistinguishable from Indian ones, except that you can still get a train ticket without paying a bribe, the ticket-seller treats you respectfully albeit a bit less by each passing day, the trains still operate reasonably well albeit continue to worsen, and you still don’t see cockroaches inside the compartments. But you will get there.

    Eventually, trains will collide, killing hundreds; massive forest fires will happen not because of climate change but because of a lack of work ethics, incompetence, and apathy; bridges will fall apart, infrastructure will deteriorate, quality of hygiene will worsen, and nepotism and bribery will become commonplace. But unless you understand this article, you will fail to pinpoint the reason.

    You will have to start worrying about female infanticide and female genital mutilation. Caste problems will require you to create legal remedies. Some of these issues are already here, although no official inquiry will blame the cause of accidents on rampant immigration, diversity, inclusivity, and equity.

    Hindu-Sikh problems will continue to worsen in Canada, but no one will have the courage to tell them to take their fight to where it belongs: back to India. These idiots will celebrate Indian Independence Day in Canada, utterly forgetful that they got rid of European rule from India and then took all the pains to move to a country ruled by Europeans. But among them, the concept of reason is conspicuous by its absence. They vote on a tribal basis and elect people of their kind, tribe, and religion, setting Canadian institutions’ conversion to what they left behind in motion.

    It is a gross mistake to think that people leave their home countries to escape their tyrants. As in North Korea, the real tyrants do not let their people escape. Virtually everyone else is running away from the hellhole they created for themselves. They are part and parcel of the hellhole they left behind. They remake their host country in the image of what they left behind. When you bring them in, you bring the subtle, subliminal ways they will participate in making Canada a hellhole.

    Let us delve a bit deeper. Changing culture is not a generation or two-generation process. It is not even a centuries-long process. It is, at best, a millennia-long process. And that is assuming culture is not hardwired.

    Civilization is a uniquely Western concept. The Third World, where most Canadian immigrants come from, has no interest in Western values. For them, concepts like honor, honesty, and fairness are alien. They are driven by expediency and the acquisition of resources.

    Desperate in their Third World hellhole, it is not the absence of liberty or the rule of law that worries them. They are blind to them. They are only interested in money.

    When they arrive, they do not see the existence of Western values. It is only the money-making opportunities that they seek. That is the only thing of value that they see. Given their state of mind, they think that Canada would be a much better place if their religions, rituals, and culture, and indeed tyranny, were to be imposed on Canada.

    A senior officer from the Indian government, on an extended visit to the West, told me why he hated the West. He found that the lack of noise and smell made him lonely. His work got done without needing connections, and no one came to prostrate before him. There was no one lining up to meet and greet him. He felt deeply hurt and unrecognized. He didn’t know how to pass his time. He desperately wanted his bank to take longer to do his job and his electricity to stop working so he could use up his time chasing them.

    Because they get uprooted from their culture and ecology—which is conducive to their psyche—they learn to despise Canada.

    They have no interest in Western values or liberty. They are not running away from tyranny. They like it. They have a visceral hatred for peace and order. I might even add that they find Western values abhorrent.

    The more skilled among them, even when they earn million-dollar salaries, vote for the Left. They love the nanny government. Their vote, now inching towards the majority, is increasingly reflected in Canadian politics.

    Symbiotic with their absence of values is their failure to have any gratitude they get. Now, put yourself in the shoes of such a person.

    They come to the West for nothing else than money. This is irrespective of how much money they make in Canada. They have left the poop smell, the chaos, the noise, and the razzmatazz behind. These things might not be endearing to a native Canadian, but they are the necessary ecology that the immigrant craves. They flourish in them. They left their community, friends, and family to whom they were attached, with their petty tribal quarrels, back stabbings, bitching, and defrauding each other as a necessary part of their existence.

    They are unrooted in Canada. They can never get rooted, for they have no interest in Western values or even eyes to see them. They will work towards converting Canada to what they left behind and with a visceral hatred for Canada.

    But how do they even convert Canada to what they left behind when there are immigrants from 200 different countries speaking 450 languages, each preferring a different kind of chaos and their type of poop smell, and with active hatred for other immigrant groups?

    If you visit Brampton, you might realize that the immigrants there, even after decades of living in Canada, resort to creating poop-smell, noise, and chaos to seek comfort from the existential crisis that Canada otherwise unwittingly imposes on them. This happens even in areas where houses run for millions of dollars.

    Given this predicament, assimilation is impossible unless you can trigger a passion among immigrants for Western values. No one has discovered how to activate this.

    For a moment, let me go a step further. All my friends from the Third World, who are pro-Western and came to Canada for liberty, took years to feel at home. Simple things like a noise-free car and lack of potholes make them want to puke, for it is disorienting. How could others ever get assimilated?

    The situation gets far worse when they live among their very own kind. Eritreans, Ethiopians, Pakistanis, Syrians, Persians, and Afghanis have found their own ghettos, for Canada has enabled enough mass immigration to give each ghetto a critical mass.

    Based on faulty, unexamined beliefs, Canada has diluted its population by 100% in just over two generations. Trudeau, not happy with this, is ramping up immigration.

    There is another erroneous Canadian belief that assimilation happens with time. It does happen in adopting the low-class hedonistic no-values.

    The second-generation immigrants learn to speak English and French and wear Western clothes. But deeper down, contrary to conventional wisdom, the situation worsens. Not that the first generation necessarily had gratitude for the opportunities it got in Canada, but the second generation also finds itself split for the romanticism of the homeland their parents left.

    Contrary to conventional wisdom, crime rate increases in the second generation. If you live in Surrey and attend a school dominated by Indians, you must be a part of one of the gangs. That is if you don’t want to be beaten up. In a way, they become more Indian than Indians are in India. The same is true with other immigrants from the Third World.

    When you bring people of the Third World, you get the Third World. You convert your society into the Third World.

    Alas, even if Canada ended immigration today, it is too late for Canada. It is well on its way to becoming a Third World majority country.

    The people of the future will be amused by how, using simplistic, unexamined, faulty myths of multiculturalism and diversity, Canada, which was once a great country, destroyed itself. They will be amused that, afraid of being canceled and to preserve their lifestyles from marauding leftists and wokes, Canadians let their land be ransacked within two generations.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 23:40

  • Global Nuclear Warhead Stockpiles Growing Again
    Global Nuclear Warhead Stockpiles Growing Again

    While nuclear powers such as the United States and France are not thought to have increased their arsenal from Jan 2022 to Jan 2023, there has been an overall increase in the number of stockpiled nuclear warheads in this period, globally.

    As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, chiefly China, but also Russia, North Korea, Pakistan and India have led to this uptick, expanding the number of the weapons which they have at their disposal – be it stored or already deployed – by a combined total of 86.

    As this chart illustrates, this continues a trend which began in 2018, ending a long cooldown period dating back to the late 80’s when there were more than 64,000 stockpiled worldwide.

    Infographic: Global Nuclear Warhead Stockpiles Growing Again | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    As summarized by SIPRI, “Global reductions of operational warheads appear to have stalled, and their numbers are rising again. At the same time, both the USA and Russia have extensive and expensive programs under way to replace and modernize their nuclear warheads, their missile, aircraft and submarine delivery systems, and their nuclear weapon production facilities”.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 23:20

  • Fani Swatted After CNN Legal Expert Calls Trump Charges 'Unnecessary'
    Fani Swatted After CNN Legal Expert Calls Trump Charges ‘Unnecessary’

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A prominent media analyst and former prosecutor suggested this week that the charges made by the district attorney in Fulton County, Georgia, against former President Donald Trump under the state’s racketeering law are “unnecessary” and only add to Mr. Trump’s allegations of a “Democratic Party pile on.”

    (Left) Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis speaks during a news conference at the Fulton County Government building in Atlanta on Aug. 14, 2023. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images), (Right) Former President Donald Trump leaves at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, on Aug. 12, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    Elie Honig, a former federal prosecutor and now a media legal analyst, told a podcast this week that federal special counsel Jack Smith already charged the former president with alleged election-related offenses “and in seven states in particular, including Georgia.”

    Notably, Mr. Honig, a former assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, has been publicly critical of the former president, and he is now a senior legal analyst for CNN. He’s also penned a critical book about former Trump Attorney General William Barr called “Hatchet Man.”

    He asked whether Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ indictment is for the “greater good and why is it promoting public confidence in the fairness of this [process] to have one of those seven state prosecutors pile on with a charge of her own? I don’t think it serves any greater good,” he stated, adding that Ms. Willis indicted him on partisan grounds.

    “I disagree with the exercise of prosecutorial discretion by an elected county prosecutor, a partisan, with a D next to her name,” he said, referring to the Democratic Party.

    There are differences between the Georgia and the federal election cases, he then claimed, saying they essentially serve the same purpose.

    “I think it makes Trump’s chances of being convicted and punished higher if that’s the only goal here. If that’s the only goal, all seven states: Michigan, New Mexico, and on down the line, should be charging him too, but that would be ludicrous,” the former prosecutor said.

    Last month, the Fulton County District Attorney’s office indicted President Trump and 18 co-defendants under Georgia’s expansive anti-racketeering law, claiming that he and the others engaged in efforts to illegally overturn the 2020 election results in the state. All have pleaded not guilty and some defendants have attempted to get their charges thrown out.

    Federal Judge Steve Jones last week rejected the attempt by Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows to move his case to federal court and sent it back to state court, but Meadows is appealing that ruling. The four others who have already filed notice to move their cases have hearings before Jones scheduled for next week.

    It came after a Fulton County grand jury last month accused them of participating in an illegal scheme to keep the incumbent Republican president in power after the election against President Joe Biden.

    Republicans in her state and in Congress have accused Ms. Willis’s office of engaging in a politically motivated attack on the former president as he ramps up his 2024 presidential campaign as the leading GOP candidate.

    In August, State Sen. Colton Moore, a Republican from Georgia’s northwest corner, recently doubled down on his calls for a special session to take money away from Willis’ office and consider her impeachment.

    “Fani Willis is spending millions of our taxpayer dollars to take on political prisoners. It’s the most un-American thing that we’ve ever seen in our lifetime,” Mr. Moore told the crowd at a rally near the state Capitol last month.

    However, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp dismissed the calls in a news conference in which he angrily criticized state Republicans for running a “grifter scam” to raise money from Trump supporters. Without Kemp’s support, a special session is impossible unless Republicans can get 60 percent of all legislators in each house of Georgia’s General Assembly to support it.

    Meanwhile, Ms. Willis said last month in announcing the charges that she wanted to try all 19 defendants together, including President Trump and other high-profile individuals such as former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and attorney Sidney Powell.

    Two of the people charged have filed speedy trial demands, and Judge Scott McAfee set their trial for Oct. 23. At a hearing last week, he said it seemed “a bit unrealistic” to imagine that all of the defendants could be tried that soon and asked prosecutors for a brief explaining why they felt that was necessary.

    Lawyers Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell are the two who have filed speedy trial demands. They also requested to be tried separately from each other, but Judge McAfee denied that request. Mr. Chesebro is accused of working on the coordination and execution of a plan to have 16 Georgia Republicans sign a certificate declaring that President Trump won in 2020. Mrs. Powell is accused of participating in an alleged breach in rural Coffee County.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 23:00

  • Taiwan Unveils First Domestic-Made Submarine With Eye On China Threat
    Taiwan Unveils First Domestic-Made Submarine With Eye On China Threat

    Taiwan has unveiled its first-ever domestically built submarine in a rollout ceremony on Thursday led by President Tsai Ing-wen, who praised the large diesel-electric vessel which is officially named the “Narwhal” (loosely translated: “sea monster”). 

    “The submarine is an important realization of our concrete commitment in defending our country,” Tsai announced at the ceremony which was attended by hundreds of military and government personnel. “It is also important equipment for our naval forces in developing asymmetric warfare strategies.”

    “In the past, many people thought building an indigenous submarine would be an impossible task. But we have made it,” she underscored. Interestingly, it was Tsai herself who was instrumental in launching plans for a first Taiwanese-built submarine back in 2016.

    These broader plans include a goal of eventually having eight total domestic-built submarines, which is likely to be at least a decade or two in the future. Currently the self-ruled island’s military operates a pair of Dutch-made submarines since the 1980s.

    The submarine program is seen as crucial amid a growing Chinese threat to Taiwan’s self-declared independence; however, China doesn’t appear too concerned, as CNN notes of Beijing’s response:

    Asked about the new submarine at a monthly press briefing on Thursday, China’s Defense Ministry likened the vessel to “a mantis trying to stop a chariot”, invoking a common Chinese idiom.

    But still, Taipei is celebrating the achievement of an “impossible task” – which Chinese officials are surely concerned by, no matter Beijing’s public brush-off of the news:

    “In the past, a domestically developed submarine was considered an impossible task. But, today, a submarine designed and manufactured by our country’s people sits before our eyes,” Tsai said, adding that it would play an important role in strengthening the navy’s “asymmetric warfare” capabilities.

    The Narwhal is still not expected to enter service with the navy for another two years, so by 2025 Taiwan will have a total of three active submarines patrolling its waters.

    Ever since then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China’s PLA navy and aerial forces have greatly ramped up activity near the island, frequently breaching the Taiwan Strait ‘median line’ – as well as on a weekly basis entering its Air Defense Identification Zone. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 22:40

  • Explaining The $18 Million Mar-a-Lago Valuation By NY Trump Case Judge
    Explaining The $18 Million Mar-a-Lago Valuation By NY Trump Case Judge

    Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Former President Donald Trump and two of his sons have criticized a New York judge for suggesting his Mar-a-Lago Palm Beach resort is worth between $18–28 million.

    An aerial view of Mar-a-Lago, the Florida home of former President Donald Trump, on Aug. 15, 2022. The FBI executed a search warrant on the home on Aug. 8, seeking boxes of classified documents that Trump is alleged to have taken from the White House. (Marco Bello/Reuters)

    “If Mar-a-Lago is worth $18 million … I’ll take 10 please!!!” Donald Trump Jr., an executive vice president of Trump Organization, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

    Judge Arthur Engoron implied the market value of the property in a Sept. 26 summary ruling that found President Trump’s business empire liable for fraudulently inflating property values in loan paperwork. He revoked the Trump Organization’s business licenses in the state and ordered it dissolved.

    President Trump’s lawyers argued that the banks providing the loans didn’t care about the valuations produced by the company because they do their own. All the loans have or are being properly repaid with interest, they noted. The judge ruled, however, that under New York law the state can sue for inflated property values even if nobody was harmed by them.

    Mar-a-Lago was overvalued by “at least 2,300%” because the Palm Beach County Assessor assigned it a market value of $18 million to $27.6 million between 2011–2021, while the Trump Organization valued it at $426,529,614–$612,110,496 on its Statements of Financial Condition (SFC) in those same years, the judge said.

    There are problems with using either of the valuations.

    The county’s website says that “the estimate of Total Market Value is for tax assessment purposes only” and “the Total Market Value estimate may be less than the actual market value of the property.”

    Meanwhile, the SFCs include a disclaimer that the asset values are “determined by Mr. Trump in conjunction with his associates and, in some instances, outside professionals” and “the estimates presented herein are not necessarily indicative of the amount that could be realized upon the disposition of the assets or payment of the related liabilities.”

    President Trump referred to the disclaimer as a “worthless clause,” saying it indicated to him that the documents were more an enumeration of his assets, rather than their actual market valuation.

    The judge rejected that reasoning, arguing the disclaimer is itself “worthless” as a defense because it “does not use the words ‘worthless’ or ‘useless’ or ‘ignore’ or ‘disregard’ or any similar words.”

    The actual market value of Mar-a-Lago is unclear.

    President Trump’s lawyers presented a real estate expert, Lawrence Moens, “who they purport is ‘the most accomplished and knowledgeable ultra-high net worth real estate broker in Palm Beach, Florida,’” the judge said.

    “His dominance of one of the country’s richest real estate markets is total,” a 2022 Real Deal profile of the secretive realtor said, noting that he closed perhaps $1 billion worth of deals in just the 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic real estate mania.

    Valuing Mar-a-Lago at $425 million–$612 million was “appropriate and indeed conservative,” Mr. Moens told the court. The property is currently worth $1.51 billion, he opined.

    The judge rejected the opinion as “speculative” and made as “without relying on any objective evidence.”

    The property isn’t currently for sale and the family has indicated it doesn’t plan to ever sell it, according to the Trump family.

    The 62,500-square-foot mansion built in 1927 in the style of Mediterranean palaces with splendid Art Deco interiors sits on 20 acres of pampered property spanning the width of Palm Beach.

    President Trump put the resort under a conservation easement in 2002 that prohibits him from further developing it or changing its use from a social club. In exchange, he pays lower taxes on it.

    President Trump’s personal valuations of the property didn’t reflect these restrictions the judge argued, without explaining what the property should have been properly valued at, save for the county assessor’s reference.

    While restricted use may deter some buyers, Mr. Moens told the court that, if for sale, he could “in short order … produce a ready, willing and able buyer who would have interest in securing the property for their personal use as a residence, or even, their own club.”

    “I could dream up anyone from Elon Musk to Bill Gates and everyone in between. Kings, emperors, heads of state,” he said.

    Moreover, President Trump’s lawyers noted that there are legal avenues for breaking through the restrictions.

    The judge picked on Mr. Moens’s word choice, saying that “obviously, this Court cannot consider an ‘expert affidavit’ that is based on unexplained and unsubstantiated ‘dreams.’”

    “The real estate circles in Florida are laughing at this foolishness,” commented Eric Trump, President Trump’s son and also an executive vice president at his company, in an X post.

    He pointed to real estate listings from the area showing homes ranging 5,000–11,500 square feet and farther from the beach than Mar-a-Lago listed at prices up to $40 million.

    The civil suit was brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James targeting the former president as well as his sons Mr. Eric Trump and Mr. Donald Trump Jr.

    The judge so far ruled on one part of the suit dealing with allegations of overvalued properties. Other parts of the suit are scheduled for a non-jury trial starting on Oct. 2.

    Ms. James is asking for penalties of $250 million, as well as removing the three defendants from their posts in the company and barring them from holding executive posts in New York State.

    President Trump as well as his sons denounced the case as politically motivated.

    “Today, I lost all faith in the New York legal system,” Mr. Eric Trump said. “Never before have I seen such hatred toward one person by a judge—a coordinated effort with the Attorney General to destroy a man’s life, company, and accomplishments.”

    “We have run an exceptional company—never missing a loan payment, making banks hundreds of millions of dollars, developing some of the most iconic assets in the world. Yet today, the persecution of our family continues,” he wrote.

    President Trump is also facing several other civil suits as well as four criminal indictments in New York, Florida, the District of Columbia, and Georgia.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 22:20

  • Reality Check For Reality TV: Fewer Viewers Among Top Programs
    Reality Check For Reality TV: Fewer Viewers Among Top Programs

    Its chaos, cringe factor and supposed authenticity made reality TV part of the collective identity of television audiences all over the world when it started out in the 1990s.

    The genre treading fine lines between scripted and unscripted TV, fandom and voyeurism as well as sincere emotion and gaudiness had its heyday in the 2000s and 2010s, but, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, since then has lost some of its allure, at least when looking at the viewership of the top 50 broadcast TV series and shows that attract millions to U.S. TV screens each week.

    In the 2009-10 season ending in May, around a third of average weekly top 50 viewership was still taken up by reality TV shows like American Idol, Survivor, The Amazing Race, The Biggest Loser, Extreme Makeover and Hell’s Kitchen, among others. The fast ascend of the genre has partially been credited to the lower production value many shows had opposite scripted dramas. Almost one and a half decades later, only the first two of these programs have remained in the top 50 of America’s most viewed TV shows. They can however be found much further down the ranking together with two newer singing shows, The Voice and The Masked Singer.

    All in all, reality TV viewership among top 50 shows only made up around 12 percent of aggregate average weekly viewership in the last annual TV season, which ended May 2023.

    Infographic: Reality Check for Reality TV: Fewer Viewers Among Top Programs | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    While American Idol’s twice weekly screenings together with Dancing With The Stars were the three most viewed U.S. TV shows in 2009-10 and 2010-11, The Voice’s two installments were only the 19th and 20th most viewed programs in 2022-23.

    All star reprises to popular shows have found their way into the top 50 TV shows in recent years as part of the America’s Got Talent franchise and could boost reality TV viewership a little, but generally, reality TV is playing less of a role today. Another reason for this is that many newer reality formats, like celebrity-based shows, have flourished on cable TV or even streaming. One example of this is the Kardashian reality franchise, which ran for 20 seasons on E! and starts its fourth season under new name, The Kardashians, on Hulu today. Broadcast channels meanwhile have capture their bigger audiences with talent and other contestant-based shows.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 22:00

  • America Needs A National Maritime Strategy
    America Needs A National Maritime Strategy

    Authored by Mike Waltz via RealClear Wire,

    America doesn’t have enough ships and building more takes far too long.

    A war with any level of attrition in the Pacific could quickly turn catastrophic without sufficient warships, combat logistics vessels, and merchant ships. Outnumbered and without the capacity to replace, refuel, and provision our troops, we would struggle to deliver victory.

    This precarious situation carries significant implications for our economy, national security, and international standing. Consequently, America must act now, before it is too late, to set a new maritime trajectory by building a coherent national maritime strategy.

    Chinese Communist Party leaders are students of history, and they recognize America’s arsenal of democracy all but ensured America’s triumph in the Pacific in World War II. Overwhelming numerical force, new ships, and maritime shipping secured our victory.

    Now, the Pentagon considers China the world’s top shipbuilder, not America. China controls the world’s 4th largest shipping company, and its Navy is the world’s largest.

    Meanwhile, America’s maritime enterprise reflects years of neglect and decline, despite being the world’s largest economy, and relying heavily on global maritime trade.

    Following World War II, American commercial shipbuilding led the world in output and tonnage. Today, the United States ranks just 19th in shipbuilding and produces less than ½ a percent of the world’s commercial ships.

    The fate of our shipping heritage is no different. In 1947, the United States fleet of over 5,000 vessels represented 40% of the world’s shipping capacity. By the 1960’s, however, America’s nearly 3,000 ships only carried 16% of the world’s cargo. Most recently, our nation’s international trading fleet consisted of merely 80 ships, accounting for less than 1.5% of global trade.

    What about the United States Navy? During the late 1980s, the fleet size was nearly 590 ships, but it has dwindled to about 290 ships today. Meanwhile, China’s naval forces have soared to 340 warships, with hundreds more guided missile patrol boats and armed maritime militia vessels.

    These trends directly translated into a decline of our nation’s power and influence.

    Rebuilding that power through maritime strength requires a holistic approach, considering the readiness of our entire maritime machinery – infrastructure, workforce, technology, policies, industry, shipping fleets, and sea services. We need our own National Maritime Strategy to pull all these elements together and provide a true strategy for competing with China on the high seas, growing our maritime economy, protecting the freedom of the seas, and sustaining our oceanic resources.

    Such a strategic design starts with recognizing our nation needs American-built and crewed ships, but we also need help changing our nation’s maritime trajectory.

    We are in a race against time since China now has more than 200 times the shipbuilding capacity of the United States. Of course, we prefer all our ships be American built. But, in the race with our greatest adversary, we need a mix of US, Japanese, South Korean, and European-built ships in a Reagan-style build-up. I applaud efforts like our Navy’s Shipyard Infrastructure Optimization Program, but that program is spread over 20 years and is focused solely on public shipyards. That’s too little too late.

    We must complement efforts to improve shipbuilding capacity by using drones. Smaller, cheaper platforms are easier to build and provide an affordable path for quickly ramping up the size and reach of our nation’s fleets. Let’s not reinvent the wheel but instead tap into the wealth of existing technology and operations to scale our military, civil, and commercial fleets.

    Finally, Congress should cultivate a finance and regulatory environment to make civil and commercial shipbuilding and shipping industries more competitive globally. Close loopholes that permit private equity funds to flood Chinese shipyards and harness those resources for domestic projects.

    This means writing new laws that encourage and protect private investment in shipbuilding, shipping, and projects of national interest. Make it easier, safer, and more profitable for Wall Street firms, private equity, and the American public to invest in our nation’s naval activities.  

    Only Congress can provide the funding, prioritization, and accountability necessary to revitalize and sustain our maritime enterprise and position America for success on the seas. The strategic maritime environment demands urgent action to develop a national maritime strategy that synchronizes stakeholders, resources, and policy, leading to unity of maritime effort.

    As a direct response to this vital need, I sponsored legislation in this year’s NDAA to hold the administration accountable for producing such a design. I will continue working with my colleagues Roger Wicker, Trent Kelly, and Rob Wittman on this national security crisis. Working hand in hand with the people of this great nation, we will ensure America’s place as a global leader on the seas.

    Mike Waltz represents Florida’s 6th Congressional District and is a member of the House Armed Services Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee, and Select Committee on Intelligence. He is a Green Beret veteran of the war in Afghanistan, a former White House counterterrorism policy adviser, and a defense policy director for secretaries of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 21:40

  • Here Is What Stops, And What Doesn't, When The Government Shuts Down This Weekend
    Here Is What Stops, And What Doesn’t, When The Government Shuts Down This Weekend

    Last week we laid out what the economic consequences of a lengthy government shutdown would likely be, among them a drop in GDP and a spike in the unemployment rate perhaps sufficient to push the US economy into recession, not to mention a halt in most economic data reporting..

    … but ahead of the Sept 30 midnight drop dead date, there is still some confusion so let’s recap the main points, the first of which is that a government shutdown should not be confused with the debt ceiling and its potential for a sovereign default.

    As JPM writes in its latest shutdown note, if no deal is reached by Oct 1 – which is now certainly the default case – then a continuing resolution is one of the more likely paths, but should a CR remain in place by Jan 1, 2024, then there will be an automatic cut to military/defense spending.

    A government shutdown does not actually shutdown all aspects of the government, as many elements are exempted. In addition to the items listed below, JPM assumes that Departments of Defense, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, State, and the Social Security Administration continue to make payments.

    Some more details on the economic impact

    • The 5-week shutdown from 2018-19 reduced real GDP by $11bn or 0.3%; $3bn of that $11bn was likely non-recoverable once the government reopened.
    • In the past events, the 10Y yield has dropped both ahead of the shutdown (beginning as many as 15 days ahead) and throughout the shutdown.

    What about Equities?

    JPM’s Mkt Intel desk finds that if you one uses the bank’s sample size of shutdowns lasting more than one business day, the SPX fell 2.5% in the 10 days leading up to the shutdown with Tech and Real Estate the biggest laggards.

    • If the shutdown reaches the 10-day mark, the SPX will have rebounded by ~2% led by Cyclicals and Tech the only major sector producing a negative return.
    • Once a resolution is reached, the SPX trades up 80bps at the 10-day mark, +3.6% at the 30-day mark, and +5.9% at the 90-day mark.
      • 10-day mark: SPX +0.8% and top 3 sectors are Industrials (+2.4%), Staples (+1.9%), and Utilities (+1.3%)
      • 30-day mark: SPX +3.6% and the top 3 sectors are Industrials (+5.2%), Healthcare (+4.9%), and Utilities (+4.5%).
      • 90-day mark: SPX +5.9% and the top 3 sectors are Tech (+9.8%), Industrials (+8.1%), and Materials (+7.9%).

    Finally, courtesy of Bloomberg, here is a summary of what government services would stop on Oct 1, and what would go on:

    Not all services would abruptly stop. Medicare payments and efforts to safeguard nuclear weapons would be unaffected. You’d likely still get mail and be able to travel on Amtrak. You wouldn’t, however, be able to get married in DC courts.

    Many federal employees are likely to be furloughed, but some will be deemed “essential” and work without pay until the shutdown ends. The last major shutdown in 2018-2019 lasted 35 days.

    The Office of Management and Budget has collected agency contingency plans that outline what happens in the event of a shutdown. Here are some highlights:

    Labor

    Federal Reserve

    • Federal Reserve activity would be unaffected, meaning the central bank could still raise interest rates at its next meeting Nov. 1.

    Financial Regulators

    • The Federal Trade Commission would stop “the vast bulk of its competition and consumer protection investigations.”
    • The Securities & Exchange Commission wouldn’t review or approve registrations from investment advisers, broker-dealers, transfer agents, rating organizations, investment companies and municipal advisors.

    IRS

    • The Internal Revenue Service has yet to release plans for this potential shutdown. Previous plans said the agency would use funds from President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act to keep employees paid and working. A union representing IRS workers has said new plans are being discussed that would involve some furloughs.
    • Businesses and individuals who requested six-month extensions for their tax returns in April are still required to file by Oct. 16.

    Emergency Relief

    Energy & Environment

    • The Interior Department would retain limited discretion to issue permits for energy projects on federal lands and waters when user fees are attached.
    • A funding lapse would paralyze other work to develop required environmental analyses for energy projects, highways and other infrastructure.
    • The Environmental Protection Agency may be able to continue some IRA-funded activities as well as other exempted work, such as settlement-funded cleanup at some Superfund sites.
    • The White House has warned most EPA-led inspections at hazardous waste sites, as well as drinking water and chemical facilities, would stop.
    • The Energy Information Administration, which publishes snapshots of US oil inventories and fuel demand, would continue to collect and publish data on schedule — at least initially.
    • The National Nuclear Security Administration would focus on “maintenance and safeguarding of nuclear weapons; international non-proliferation activities; and servicing deployed naval reactors.”
    • The Nuclear Regulatory Commission would stop licensing, certification and permitting and inspection activities, along with emergency preparedness exercises.

    Transportation & Travel

    Defense

    • Efforts “to defend the nation and conduct ongoing military operations” would continue, but most civilian Defense Department employees would be on furlough.
    • Burials and tours at Arlington National Cemetery would continue.

    Health & Social Security

    • Covid-19 response and research, including vaccine and therapeutic development, would carry on under the Department of Health & Human Services.
    • The National Institutes of Health might have to postpone clinical trials for diseases like cancer or Alzheimer’s, according to the White House.
    • Medicine-price negotiations could be sent into disarray, as some drugmakers face an Oct. 2 deadline to report data to Medicare for use in determining new prices.
    • Food stamps for low-income people, the disabled, and others could be delayed.
    • Social Security checks would be delivered, and applications for benefits processed, but people would not be able to verify benefits or replace Medicare cards.

    Parks

    Housing

    • “Nearly all” Department of Housing and Urban Development fair housing work would stop, as would some monthly subsidy programs, including potentially for public housing operations.
    • HUD’s work for the Federal Housing Administration’s insured mortgages portfolio and Ginnie Mae’s work in the secondary mortgage market would be unaffected.

    Commerce

    • Review or issuance of loans under the Small Business Administration would cease, including those for women-owned and service-disabled, veteran-owned small businesses.
    • Commerce Department collection of decennial census data probably would continue, as would forecasting and warnings around weather, water, and climate.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 21:20

  • Bomb Threat Forces Evacuation Of Russian Orthodox Seminary & Monastery In New York
    Bomb Threat Forces Evacuation Of Russian Orthodox Seminary & Monastery In New York

    Via OrthoChristian.com

    Holy Trinity Monastery and Seminary in Jordanville, New York, the spiritual center of the Russian Orthodox Church Outside of Russia (ROCOR), had to be evacuated on Thursday afternoon, September 28 due to a bomb threat.

    The threat was called in due to the perpetrators’ belief that Jordanville supports the war in Ukraine. This was reported to OrthoChristian by multiple sources.

    Holy Trinity Monastery and Seminary in Jordanville, New York

    While OrthoChristian is unaware of any statements about the war coming from Holy Trinity Monastery and Seminary in particular, the monastery site does have a page entitled, “Concerning the War in Ukraine,” which hosts links to the Archpastoral Epistle of His Eminence Metropolitan Hilarion, the recently deceased First Hierarch of ROCOR, from February 24, 2022, the day the war started, in which he called all to fervently pray for peace, and the address of His Beatitude Metropolitan Onuphry of Kiev and All Ukraine, also from the first day of the war, in which he condemned and called for an end to what he called the “fratricidal war.”

    The threat comes two weeks after the publication of the article, “Putin’s Useful Priests: The Russian Orthodox Church and the Kremlin’s Hidden Influence Campaign in the West,” by Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, in Foreign Affairs, the official magazine of the Council on Foreign Relations.

    An American Orthodox priest, Fr. John Whiteford, who serves in ROCOR, reacted as follows:

    “Those who stoke Russia Hoaxes have an impact on innocent people in the real world. Next time it may be more than just a theat.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Foreign Affairs article argues that Russian Orthodox parishes outside of Russia, and especially in America, are a source of strong backing for the Russian government, which, the authors say, was cultivated over the course of two decades by an unnamed employee of the Russian Church’s Department for External Church Relations.

    However, the article is hampered at least by plain factual errors, such as massively overestimating the number of Russian Orthodox parishes in America, and a gross misrepresentation of the stance towards the war from both the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church and His Grace Bishop Irenei of London and Western Europe, who issued a response.

    US mainstream media has just this month begun airing unverified claims that Russian intelligence is embedding itself in Orthodox churches in the West…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    One of the authors that went on CNN to talk about Russian Churches in America supposedly being used to spy for Russia.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 21:00

  • Major Cold Trend Set To Unleash 'Frost-Freeze' Threat Across Eastern US
    Major Cold Trend Set To Unleash ‘Frost-Freeze’ Threat Across Eastern US

    We all survived the apparent ‘climate apocalypse’ corporate media warned about this summer with endless headlines about how the world would imminently erupt into a giant fireball. The climate math pushed by media outlets such as ABC, The New York Times, Axios, and Bloomberg was so questionable that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had to denounce the media ‘hysteria’ about the “hottest day ever.” By late August, 1,600 scientists signed a declaration refuting the existence of a climate crisis, as now the loudest media outlets warning about climate doom have gone silent as fall approaches. 

    Looking at Bloomberg data using the “NT” headline search function, “hottest day ever” in all media headlines tends to surge in July, the hottest point of the Northern Hemisphere summer. Like 2022, the public was bombarded with climate doom headlines this summer as media tried to convince folks that cow farts and petrol cars were behind sweltering temperatures. Now, those headlines have all but vanished. 

    “Hottest day ever” headlines surged at the time average temperatures across the Lower 48 peak in July. A 30-year seasonal trend of average temperatures showed, for the most part, that deviation from the mean was not severe. And since the peak, Lower 48 average temperatures have been sliding. 

    The climate is changing:

    Now, meteorologists forecast a cold front to sweep parts of the Lower 48 in weeks. 

    Private weather forecasters BAMWX said, “We have been talking about an October cold front for weeks in our videos to clients. Overnight data took a MAJOR turn to cool!” 

    “*MAJOR* colder trends across all of the model data last night,” BAMWX continued, adding, “One of the biggest flips in model guidance we’ve seen in a long time and it would increase the threat of a frost/freeze the second week of October for the Midwest/Great Lakes/NE US.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In a separate forecast, meteorologist Spencer Denton of Action Five News in Memphis forecasts a similar cold blast around Oct. 10: “There are signs of our first decent fall cold front arriving around Oct. 10. How cool or cold is still in question. Stay tuned fall weather fans.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Another meteorologist shared a long-term snow forecast… 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

     

    We cited Peter Geiger, editor of the Farmer’s Almanac, in an Aug. 19 weather note that said, “The ‘brrr’ is coming back! We expect more snow and low temperatures nationwide.”

    Suppose a cold blast does materialize in the Lower 48 by mid-Oct. It may have widespread implications for ag and energy markets. 

    Journos at corporate media are plotting their next bombardment of headlines, somehow linking cold weather to cow farts. 

    The climate is constantly changing, and the global warming narrative is imploding as even climate alarmist Bill Gates had to backtrack on his ‘climate doom’ prophecies recently. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 20:40

  • Slouching Towards 1984
    Slouching Towards 1984

    Authored by Jeffrey Keltz via American Greatness,

    In George Orwell’s dystopian novel “1984,” he portrays English society – renamed Oceania – as a futuristic version of the 1940s Soviet Union. In this invented society that Orwell calls IngSoc –  English Socialism – the populace has even less freedom than the Soviets permitted its citizens  and life consists only of drudgery, loneliness and hideousness. The novel grips the reader with fear and loathing of a totalitarian future enabled by technological advances and prompts one with the question: “Can it, will it happen here?”

    It goes without saying that the United States in 2023 bears little resemblance to 1984 Oceania. In Oceania, the state had total control over the language, economy, science, history, personal possessions, personal thoughts, music, art and literature. In the U.S. today, however, it is not difficult to see how government intrusion and control reduces freedom, creates fear and confusion, reduces economic opportunity and prosperity, distorts history and science and creates unnecessary interpersonal conflict.

    One of the ways Big Brother, Oceania’s leader, exerted total control was by subverting language. This reduced the capacity to think thoughts not approved by the state. “Newspeak,” as Orwell coined it, consisted only of words that expressed permitted thoughts.

    “Thoughtcrime,” another Orwellism, punished illicit thoughts. Illicit action therefore became literally unthinkable. Truth is what Big Brother declared it to be at any given moment: 2+2=5 yesterday and 2+2=4 today. History was constantly and literally rewritten in order to satisfy the “truths” that Big Brother was currently promulgating.

    The most nefarious aspect of Big Brother’s rule was of course his brutally enforced elimination of freedom, which he accomplished by suppressing the truth and promulgating lies.

    In all eras, in all states, in all political parties, leaders tell lies. The danger arises when the state and state co-opted institutions suppress, eliminate and punish unapproved ideas. Big Brother had the power to ensure that his lies were the only “facts” that were knowable. As one would expect, dissent was rare and not tolerated. Disagreement and belief in objective reality and a persistent past was punishable by torture, work camps and usually, death.

    Is it a stretch to see hints of this control today, when scientists are censored for sharing findings that the establishment disagrees with; when college students fear they may receive a poor grade for presenting an alternative viewpoint; when employees submit unwillingly to racist diversity training; when government agencies and colleges require diversity oaths for employment; and when government reduces wealth and freedom by shutting down businesses deemed unnecessary?

    Orwell intended his novel to serve as a warning (not a guidebook) to Great Britain: that socialists and central planners running an all-powerful state can and likely would use their power for pernicious ends.

    Sadly, in the U.S. both political parties have contributed to the growth of the surveillance and controlling state. Here are some examples:

    • The PATRIOT Act permitted increased government surveillance over individuals in response to an unprecedented terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland.

    • Joe Biden tried but failed to institute a Disinformation Governance Board. His administration also pressured social media companies to restrict access to posts it deemed untruthful or otherwise harmful. One wonders, why after almost 250 years without such a board, this became necessary. In the 1990s, internet-based news sources led to a vast increase in the availability of information, significantly more than had been available when partisan daily newspapers dominated the information landscape. Philosophers and Supreme Court Justices alike agree that the solution to bad speech is more speech. But according to the Left, now that we have more news sources than ever before, this no longer holds true. Only their approved sources should be allowed a platform.

    • Various levels of government mandated mask wearing and vaccinations as well as mandatory business closures that created increased dependency on government largesse.

    • Leftist high-density gatherings were encouraged during Covid’s peak while conservative gatherings were prohibited for reasons of public safety.

    • Particular scientific theories are deemed settled, while scientists with opposing views are defunded and ridiculed despite having ample evidence backing up their claims. Some scientific theories have become sacred and “science” has been transformed into a dogmatic state-run religion.

    • The 2022 federal budget replaced the word “mothers” with “birthing people.” The NIH suggests “pregnant people.” Teachers, politicians and scientists tell us that people that are born as men may become women if they choose to do so (and vice versa) and may switch back at will.

    • Obama’s “Dear Colleague” letter to colleges replaced standard judicial practices with almost inquisition-like tactics for addressing sexual harassment complaints.

    • College campuses have instituted speech codes. Stanford University even considered banning the use of standard words but following ridicule it withdrew this proposal.

    • Publishing houses have changed classic literature in order to satisfy approved mores. Affected authors include Roald Dahl, Ian Fleming and Hugh Lofting. In Orwell’s novel, the affected authors included Shakespeare, Milton, Swift, Byron and Dickens.

    • Government agencies and publicly traded companies conduct diversity training in order to indoctrinate employees in a particular way of thinking. Opposing views are impermissible and the resistant are ridiculed and worse. While not quite Orwell’s “Two Minutes of Hate” (directed towards the enemy state), intersectionality, which is a component of critical race theory, directs hatred toward particular groups of people based on their immutable characteristics.

    • “Anti-racism” which is promoted by government agencies and public companies, posits that all white people are suspected beneficiaries of a racist system – that only whites can be racist and that race explains most economic and social outcomes in society. Somehow this is deemed not to be racist, whereas “color blind” behavior and recognizing people as individuals is now considered racist.

    • Antifa rioters are lawful demonstrators, while Catholic high school students (see Covington Catholic incident) and parents who protest at school board meetings are a threat to public safety.

    • Defunding the police makes citizens safer.

    • The unfounded claims of the “1619 Project” are taught as truth to school children.

    In “1984,” Oceania is always at war with one of the two other surviving states. Orwell writes that the reason for this warfare was “to keep the wheels of industry turning without increasing the real wealth of the world. Goods must be produced, but they must not be distributed. War is a way of shattering to pieces, or pouring into the stratosphere, or sinking in the depths of the sea, materials which might otherwise be used to make the masses too comfortable, and hence, in the long run, too intelligent.”

    Leftists seek to decarbonize the worldwide energy system – thus intentionally destroying a highly effective, proven, and safe energy production and distribution system that has lifted millions around the world out of poverty. This system was refined and incrementally improved over time. The Left wants to replace this system with technologies that are neither currently effective, proven, nor safe and although inchoate are expected to emerge fully formed – meaning that once implemented technological advancement will be more difficult and expensive.

    The U.S. already spends billions in order to end up further behind where we are now from an energy, industrial output and standard of living perspective. The planners are talking about required reductions in energy consumption, automotive miles traveled, airplane miles traveled and consumption of energy intensive foodstuffs – thus destroying our wealth and reducing the quality of life.

    As Orwell writes:

    “In principle the war effort is always so planned … with the result that there is a chronic shortage of half the necessities of life; but this is looked on as an advantage. It is deliberate policy to keep even the favoured groups somewhere near the brink of hardship, because a general state of scarcity increases the importance of small privileges and thus magnifies the distinction between one group and  another. 

    War, it will be seen, accomplishes the necessary destruction, but accomplishes it in a psychologically acceptable way. What is concerned here is… the morale of the Party itself.  Even the humblest Party member is expected to be … a credulous and ignorant fanatic whose prevailing moods are fear, hatred, adulation, and orgiastic triumph. In other words it is necessary that he should have the mentality appropriate to a state of war.” 

    Leftists view the effort to stave off the “Climate Catastrophe” as a war. This of course requires sacrifices for most Americans while the elites will continue to fly in private jets and travel the seas on luxurious yachts. Climate hysteria empowers the government to control the economy and therefore our lives. Scarcity pits group against group.

    Big Brother’s method of control is itself logically consistent: control the language, control the truth, control history, control employment, and control the populace.

    Leftist politicians have learned that they can successively add to their power, one mandate at a time, while eliminating freedom for everyone else. While these power seeking politicians are likely unknowingly following the Orwellian design of language, truth and history control, these are the logical steps required to attain greater authority over the American people incrementally — boiling the frog. Achieving one enables the possibility of achieving the next one.

    It seems rather ironic that the Left is constantly calling the Right the party of fascism, yet not even George Orwell could have imagined the level of control that the Democratic Party has tried and (arguably has succeeded) in exerting over the body politic in such a short period of time.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 20:20

  • Murder Crisis Plagues DC As Mayor Begs For More Officers After 'Defunding Police'
    Murder Crisis Plagues DC As Mayor Begs For More Officers After ‘Defunding Police’

    How it started. 

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    How it’s going? 

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    D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, a former supporter of the ‘defund the police’ movement, urgently calls for increased policing as the nation’s capital faces an out-of-control murder crisis. 

    “What I can say is this: To me, numbers are just numbers. When we lose one person — whether it’s one or 200 — that’s too many,” Bowser said at a press conference earlier this week. 

    Of course, Bowser, like many Democrat mayors, blames firearms as the issue, deflecting any possibility her disastrous social justice reforms only embolden criminals – while punishing law-abiding taxpayers -across the imploding Washington, DC metro area. 

    Even the Washington Post can’t ignore the murder crisis: 

    For the first time in a quarter-century, the year’s homicide toll in Washington has surpassed 200 before October — a mark of surging violence that has angered and distressed local leaders, drawn scrutiny from Congress and made some residents question whether they can safely live in the nation’s capital.

    WaPo added:

    The last time D.C. logged its 200th homicide before October was Aug. 12, 1997, in a year that ended with 303 people slain, according to police data. After that, annual totals generally trended downward, staying below 200 from 2004 to 2020, with a low of 88 in 2012. But the killing pace has picked up again, reaching 226 in 2021.

    Heading into the 2024 presidential election cycle, Democrats will never admit their social justice reforms have failed. They conveniently blame guns. 

    Directly north of D.C. lies another crime-ridden metro area: Baltimore City. And this week, mass looting was seen in Philadelphia. And just north of Baltimore and Philadelphia, New York City’s progressive mayor recently warned of financial ruins due to a migrant crisis. 

    Democrats have transformed cities into absolute messes. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 20:00

  • NIH Doctor Flagged Wuhan Virus Lab Safety Problems As Early As 2017
    NIH Doctor Flagged Wuhan Virus Lab Safety Problems As Early As 2017

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

    A doctor working for the U.S. government in 2017 visited the China-based virus research facility that may have leaked the pathogen that causes COVID-19, and sounded the alarm on safety issues at the lab earlier than previously reported, according to documents obtained by The Epoch Times.

    Dr. Ping Chen, who worked for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), visited the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in October 2017 and prepared a report for her superiors after her visit.

    While a version of her report obtained by a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request was fully redacted, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and his team were granted an opportunity to carry out an in-camera review of the report that had some of the redactions removed.

    “It is clear to me by talking to the technician that certainly there is a need for training support” at the Wuhan lab, Dr. Chen wrote in the report, parts of which were attached to a letter sent by Mr. Johnson to Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra on Sept. 21.

    The letter, which was obtained by The Epoch Times, includes fragments of Dr. Chen’s report and suggests that HHS and the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) were aware of safety issues at the Wuhan facility as early as October 2017.

    The P4 laboratory on the campus of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on May 13, 2020. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

    Earlier reporting based on two State Department cables and correspondence records obtained by Judicial Watch indicate that NIH was made aware of safety problems at the Wuhan lab in 2018, the year after Dr. Chen’s report.

    “I think the institute would welcome any help and technical support by NIAID,” Dr. Chen wrote in her 2017 report.

    Mr. Johnson wrote in his letter to Mr. Becerra that Dr. Chen’s 2017 report partially served as the basis for a Jan. 19, 2018, State Department cable that raised safety concerns about the Wuhan virus lab.

    Evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, leaked from the Wuhan facility before spreading across the world. According to the so-called lab leak theory, the deadly pathogen that caused the pandemic escaped the Chinese facility, which was conducting risky gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses that was partially funded by U.S. taxpayer dollars.

    Demands

    Mr. Johnson demanded that HHS provide a version of Dr. Chen’s 2017 report that contains fewer redactions in order to scrutinize its contents more closely and determine how closely it aligned with the cable.

    “In the public FOIA document, HHS redacted Dr. Chen’s entire report claiming that it contains privacy and deliberative information,” Mr. Johnson wrote.

    “It seems apparent that the only reason that HHS redacted this information was to hide the report’s contents from the American people. Perhaps HHS did not want the public to fully understand the fact that NIH and NIAID officials were aware of safety concerns at the WIV dating as far back as 2017,” he added.

    Mr. Johnson also accused NIH and HHS of obstructing his probe.

    “HHS and NIH continue to obstruct my oversight efforts,” he wrote. “It is unacceptable that HHS and NIH had Dr. Chen’s report in its possession and only provided a slightly less redacted version for my staff to review in camera.”

    He demanded that HHS provide unredacted copies of Dr. Chen’s report and all documents and communications relating to the report and to the Wuhan lab.

    Mr. Johnson also asked for Dr. Chen to sit before a congressional panel and testify.

    He set an Oct. 5 deadline for HHS to comply with his request.

    HHS officials didn’t immediately respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

    Chinese virologist Shi Zhengli is seen inside the P4 laboratory in Wuhan, China, on Feb. 23, 2017. (Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images)

    ‘Preponderance of Evidence’ for Lab Leak

    In August 2021, a report by Republican lawmakers noted a “preponderance of evidence” that the virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic leaked from the Wuhan lab.

    Chinese officials have denied the lab leak claim, insisting that the virus made a natural jump from animals to humans.

    Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said in testimony before the Coronavirus Select Subcommittee Republicans that evidence points to a lab leak as the likely origin of the virus, saying that “it’s time to completely dismiss the wet market as the source of the outbreak” and “the preponderance of the evidence that it came from the lab is very convincing.”

    U.S. intelligence agencies later said in a report that a natural origin and a lab leak are both plausible hypotheses but that a lack of evidence makes a definitive conclusion either way impossible.

    It’s a sentiment echoed by Mr. McCaul in his testimony.

    “Unfortunately, we may never know for certain because the Chinese Communist Party went to great lengths to cover up this outbreak,” he said. “They detained the doctors in order to silence them. They disappeared journalists. They destroyed lab samples. They hid the fact there was clear evidence of human-to-human transmission. And they have refused to allow a real investigation into the origins.”

    Wuhan Lab Funding Controversy

    The U.S. Agency for International Development awarded a total of $1.1 million to the WIV between October 2009 and May 2019, the agency wrote in a May 2021 letter (pdf) to Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.).

    Mr. Reschenthaler alleged that the funding was used for a study that used gain-of-function research to create “a hybrid, man-made virus by inserting a spiked protein from a wild coronavirus into a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone, which could infect human airways.”

    The agency said the funds were channeled through EcoHealth Alliance and were meant for the purpose of advancing research on critical viruses that could pose a threat to humans. It also denied claims that the money was used for gain-of-function research, which seeks to boost viral lethality for the purpose of studying it.

    In June 2022, the House Appropriations Committee approved a ban on sending any further funding to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

    More recently, the NIH quietly removed the WIV from a list of foreign facilities that are eligible to receive U.S. taxpayer funds to conduct animal experiments.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 19:40

  • Who Owns The Most Satellites?
    Who Owns The Most Satellites?

    Nearly 7,000 satellites orbit the Earth, serving vital functions such as communication, navigation, and scientific research.

    In 2022 alone, more than 150 launches took place, sending new instruments into space, with many more expected over the next decade.

    But who owns these objects? In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti and Miranda Smith utilize data from the Union of Concerned Scientists to highlight the leaders in satellite technology.

    SpaceX’s Dominance in Space

    SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is unquestionably the industry leader, currently operating the largest fleet of satellites in orbit—about 50% of the global total.

    The company has already completed 62 missions this year, surpassing any other company or nation, and operates thousands of internet-beaming Starlink spacecraft that provide global internet connectivity.

    Starlink customers receive a small satellite dish that self-orients itself to align with Starlink’s low-Earth-orbit satellites.

    Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

    In second place is a lesser-known company, British OneWeb Satellites. The company, headquartered in London, counts the UK government among its investors and provides high-speed internet services to governments, businesses, and communities.

    Like many other satellite operators, OneWeb relies on SpaceX to launch its satellites.

    Despite Starlink’s dominance in the industry, the company is set to face intense competition in the coming years. Amazon’s Project Kuiper plans to deploy 3,236 satellites by 2029 to compete with SpaceX’s network. The first of the fleet could launch as early as 2024.

    The Rise of China’s Space Program

    After the top private companies, governments also own a significant portion of satellites orbiting the Earth. The U.S. remains the leader in total satellites, when adding those owned by both companies and government agencies together.

    American expenditures on space programs reached $62 billion in 2022, five times more than the second one, China.

    China, however, has sped up its space program over the last 20 years and currently has the highest number of satellites in orbit belonging directly to government agencies. Most of these are used for Earth observation, communications, defense, and technology development.

    Satellite Demand to Rise Over the Decade

    Despite the internet being taken for granted in major metropolitan areas and developed countries, one out of every three people worldwide has never used the web.

    Furthermore, the increasing demand for data and the emergence of new, more cost-effective satellite technologies are expected to present significant opportunities for private space companies.

    In this context, satellite demand is projected to quadruple over the next decade.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 19:20

  • Boston University Will Investigate Kendi Center After Ignoring Questions For Years
    Boston University Will Investigate Kendi Center After Ignoring Questions For Years

    Authored by Matt Lamb via The College Fix,

    After ignoring questions about Ibram Kendi’s work for years, Boston University will now look into management at the Center for Antiracist Research.

    Boston University will investigate the center’s “culture and its grant management practices,” following complaints. The center reportedly raised $55 million, which includes at least $10 million from former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey.

    “To ensure its long-term impact and sustainability, Kendi made the decision to restructure the center to create a residential fellowship program for antiracist intellectuals, creators, and students,” BU announced on Sep. 21.

    “He announced the layoffs as part of the restructuring (19 staff people were laid off, leaving a staff at the center of 15 to 17 people moving forward).”

    This comes not only after Professor Saida Grundy first raised concerns in 2021, according to the student newspaper, but after The College Fix and other media outlets have questioned Kendi’s output.

    BU said it “recognize[s] the importance of Dr. Kendi’s work and the significant impact it has had on antiracist thinking and policy” and looks forward to working with him on the inquiry. But Kendi’s “work” has often been lacking and other joint ventures with the professor have fallen through.

    Most recently, and just prior to the public implosion of the center, The Fix reported that Kendi had not written an academic paper in the past four years. The Aug. 21 article noted he had written at least two children’s books in the same period.

    In March 2021, The Fix asked “What exactly does Ibram Kendi do all day,” following original Fix reporting that found the center director had made at least $300,000 lecturing on how America is racist.

    The Fix also questioned a promised “Racial Data Lab” in January 2021 that was supposed to be a partnership between Professor Azer Bestavros and the center. When asked for comment on the tracker, Bestavros said it had nothing to do with his work. “Your questions are not about my work or my research,” he said at the time in an email.

    The Fix asked him if he had any concerns about Kendi’s ability to follow through on projects – media reporting had shown he failed to deliver on a similar racial data tracker, instead relying on volunteers with The Atlantic. Yet, Kendi cited the “COVID Racial Data Tracker” as an accomplishment of the center in his Sep. 22 statement.

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    Bestavros did not reply to requests for comment six months later, nor did Kendi’s team. The Fix frequently reached out to Boston University, including spokesman Colin Riley, and other Kendi associates for comments over the course of two articles on Kendi’s tracker and a third one about the now-ended relationship with The Boston Globe.

    The Fix reached out to at least seven different Kendi associates or representatives a total of twenty times for just those three articles. In all cases, requests for comment were ignored or not substantially answered.

    Kendi did comment on the situation in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

    While acknowledging “missteps” he also played his favorite card, saying that “[l]eaders of color and women leaders are often held to different standards” and called his center’s work “crucial” for “antiracist” efforts.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 19:00

  • Jim Grant: Fed Policy Is A Ph.D. Standard Of Improvisation
    Jim Grant: Fed Policy Is A Ph.D. Standard Of Improvisation

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, and people are wondering, what will it do next? The messaging coming from the central bankers is that they will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. But is that possible given the economic conditions and all of the debt in the economy?

    Investment and economics writer Jim Grant appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box to discuss the Fed’s inflation fight and its impact on the economy. He said we ask too much of the central bankers. After all, they are only human.

    Grant opened the interview by taking exception to Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee’s assertion that the current federal funds rate is “restrictive.”

    His own Financial Conditions Index, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, shows, oddly enough, that financial conditions, as defined, are looser than average even after this short of zero to 60 in six seconds of rate increases.”

    So yes, monetary policy is “tighter,” but it is not yet “tight.”

    Grant has said we are likely entering into a generational bear market in bonds. He pointed out that interest rates are unique because they tend to follow generational cycles. That’s been true in the US since the Civil War.

    I say we just ended in 2021 40 years, 4-0 years, of persistently declining rates, which ended, and something I  think financial historians are going to puzzle over for many many years, which is negative nominal rates — bonds priced to yields less than nothing to the tune of like $15 or $16 trillion. … It seems to me every big move in financial markets, whether its bonds or anything else, tends to climax in some absurdity, some valuation excess with the stock puppet 1999 or negative nominal yields in 2020-2021.”

    Looking back, we had 40 years of declining interest rates. Before that, we had 35 years of generally increasing rates that ended in 1981. Grant said it’s simply a matter of pattern recognition “to give it its intellectual most dignified term.”

    This is nothing like a physical law, but this, as I say, has been the form for many, many years in bonds.”

    The CNBC host seemed a bit befuddled by Grant’s analysis. After all, if the Fed is controlling rates, why would we see these long trends? If the economy is doing well, the central bankers can raise rates. If the economy suffers, they can lower them.

    Grant said “they” don’t always control events.

    He quoted former British Prime Minster Harold Macmillan who was asked, “What might go wrong.” He responded, “My boy, events! Events might go wrong.”

    We have been used to, I think, imputing to the Fed immense powers of foresight and control. But oftentimes, the Fed, like so many of us, finds itself not in the vanguard of action or thought, but rather running behind to catch up. You know, the Fed can will all it likes to return the 2% world it has defined for itself, but if the past is prologue, the Fed will be evolving a new set of narratives to explain the new world. And I expect that to be coming at Jackson Hole any summer now.”

    While it is difficult to see the future, Grant said we can at least observe the present and size up the odds the markets are laying on certain outcomes.

    Grant called the Fed members “well-intentioned human beings,” with an emphasis on human beings. He said many scored well on the SAT and they probably would have rather worked at NASA doing physical science as opposed to the “pseudoscience” of economic forecasting.

    As recently as the early months of 2022, with inflation percolating above 5%, they were still doing QE. So, we ask too much of them, or indeed, of any set of human beings.”

    Would some kind of rule-based system be better?

    Grant gave an enthusiastic, yes!

    The rule would be that interest rates ought to be discovered in the market rather than imposed or suppressed. We have decided over the course of many years to conduct our monetary affairs by kind of a Ph.D. standard of improvisation. There are no rules, per se. The dollar is uncollateralized as it had been from the beginning of the country to 1971. So, to some extent, we are playing tennis without a net, and without baselines, and without sidelines. So, circumspection in public finance is out the window.”

    Demonstrating just how out of whack things have become, Grant pointed out that in private sector terms, the Fed is broke.

    So, what about all of the investors and businesspeople who have made bets based on perpetually low interest rates? Grant said he thinks the odds are against them.

    Within this long cycle — this projected, imagined long cycle I foresee — there are all sorts of twists and turns. There were in the 70s, for example. Inflation didn’t go straight up. It was in three phases or slices. So, if past is prologue, what we’ll see is a time of long-trending higher rates with head-fakes that will get people convinced that 2% is right around the corner.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 18:40

  • Our Society Is Melting Down Even Faster Than Most People Thought That It Would
    Our Society Is Melting Down Even Faster Than Most People Thought That It Would

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    It can be difficult to believe that the wild scenes that we are witnessing on the streets of America are actually real.  Earlier this week, I wrote an article entitled “What Life Is Really Like In America’s Hellish Inner Cities”.  I wrote that article before the widespread looting that just erupted in Philadelphia.  Just when I think that conditions in our core urban areas have reached a low point, they seem to find a way to get even worse.  Unfortunately, this is just the beginning of this crisis.  As economic conditions continue to deteriorate, countless numbers of people will become very desperate.  And when countless numbers of people become very desperate, our society will descend into a permanent state of chaos.

    On Tuesday night, dozens of young people went on a rampage in the city of Philadelphia.

    It is being reported that “stores in several areas of Philadelphia” were hit…

    Dozens of people faced criminal charges Wednesday after a night of social media-fueled mayhem in which groups of thieves, apparently working together, smashed their way into stores in several areas of Philadelphia, stuffing plastic bags with merchandise and fleeing, authorities said.

    A total of 52 arrests have been made so far, police said Wednesday.

    Burglary, theft and other counts have been filed so far against at least 30 people, all but three of them adults, according to Jane Roh, spokesperson for the Philadelphia district attorney’s office.

    The largest group consisted of approximately 100 young people, and there was violence when the police finally confronted that group outside of a Lululemon store…

    Police in the city said that a large group of around 100 juveniles kept moving from store to store and looting them.

    Videos shared on social media show officers attempting to grab thieves, some of whom are wearing Halloween masks, as they run riot through a Lululemon store.

    One officer manages to hit one of the looters with a punch after tackling them to the ground.

    Many on social media seem to be quite entertained by videos of the looting, but the truth is that this footage should break all of our hearts.

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    Our society is literally coming apart at the seams all around us.

    I had warned my readers that total retail theft would exceed 100 billion dollars this year, but now it is being reported that total retail theft already broke that threshold in 2022…

    Last year, total losses tied to theft amounted to $112.1 billion, according to data from the 2023 National Retail Security Survey. That is up from $93.9 billion in losses in 2021 and $90.8 billion in 2020.

    Retailers within metros including Los Angeles, San Francisco and Oakland as well as Houston, New York and Seattle were hit the hardest last year.

    So if last year’s number was 112 billion, what will the final number be for 2023?

    130 billion?

    140 billion?

    150 billion?

    Major retail chains all over America are shutting down stores due to rampant theft.

    As I discussed yesterday, Target has decided to permanently shutter nine stores in high crime areas…

    Target Corp. will shutter nine stores across four states on Oct. 21 because of theft and threats to safety, the company announced Tuesday, the latest — and loudest —example of a retailer exiting urban locations because of crime.

    Target said it made the “difficult decision” to close the stores — which include locations in the Harlem neighborhood of New York City, Seattle, Portland and the San Francisco Bay area — after the Minneapolis-based company determined that theft-preventive measures had proved ineffective. The company said it had tried adding more security, including third-party guards, and using deterrents such as locking up merchandise.

    “We cannot continue operating these stores because theft and organized retail crime are threatening the safety of our team and guests and contributing to unsustainable business performance,” the company said.

    But nine stores is just a drop in the bucket compared to what other retailers are doing.

    For example, it is being reported that Rite Aid will close approximately 500 stores…

    One of the largest U.S. drugstores chains Rite Aid is set to close around 500 stores nationwide as it negotiates a plan to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

    The Wall Street Journal reported that the firm, which is the third largest in the country, is looking to close branches and either sell or let creditors take over their remaining operations.

    And CVS is in the process of closing a total of 900 stores by 2024…

    Drugstore chain CVS is set to close hundreds of stores across the US as it undergoes a major reform to adjust to the needs of modern online shoppers.

    The retail giant is coming to the end of a policy launched in 2021 which will see 300 stores closed each year – meaning 900 will have shuttered by 2024.

    In the announcement, which has hit headlines again recently amid rampant shoplifting at the store, bosses they said that they were undergoing a new ‘retail footprint strategy.’

    Drugstores used to be all over the place in our core urban areas.

    But now our inner cities are littered with scores of boarded up establishments with “space available” signs on them.

    This is what the future of America looks like, and it isn’t good.

    Once upon a time, we could be proud of the shiny new cities that we had built from coast to coast.

    Those cities were safe and they were clean.

    But now our major cities have degenerated into crime-ridden hellholes that are absolutely filthy.  In New York City, the millions of rats that live there are constantly making headlines…

    This is the moment a group of horrified New Yorkers is forced to hop over scores of vermin scurrying across their path from bins outside a pizzeria.

    Footage shows a few rats brazenly scurry across the pavement before scores of them emerge from an overflowing bin.

    Taryn Brady, 29, who was with a group of friends when she filmed the rat encounter, said she was left in ‘fear and disgust’ after she and her friends had to hop over the rodents running towards them.

    This is our country now.

    I know that I keep saying that, but it is such an important point.

    We don’t have the same nation that previous generations passed down to us.

    Over the past 50 to 60 years, we have literally ruined America.

    From the White House all the way down to the kids that are looting retailers in our major cities, we have become a laughingstock to the rest of the world.

    And if we don’t find a way to turn things around, our story is going to have an absolutely tragic ending.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 18:20

  • A Third Of All Workers Say They'd Quit Or Find A New Job If They Were Asked To Return To The Office
    A Third Of All Workers Say They’d Quit Or Find A New Job If They Were Asked To Return To The Office

    If the UAW strikes haven’t proven to you that workers want to do less, for more money, perhaps this new survey will.

    A new study published by FinanceBuzz this week revealed that more than 1/3rd of all remote workers would quit or find a new job if they were asked to come back into the office. Has anybody told these coddled millennials that the pandemic – and the buffet of excuses that go with it – is over?

    For the survey, FinanceBuzz surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults in August 2023. Only people who indicated they have a remote or hybrid (partially remote, partially in-office) job were allowed to respond, the report says. 

    Their key findings were:

    • More than one-third of remote workers (36%) would quit or immediately begin looking for a new job if told they had to return to office.
    • 58% of remote workers are likely or very likely to look for a remote role for their next job.
    • Compared to 2020, remote workers place increased value on the flexibility to work from anywhere (cited as top perk by 29% in 2020 and 38% in 2023).
    • 25% of remote workers say that flexibility of schedule is the top perk of working from home, down from 31% in 2020.
    • The percentage of workers that say time with family is the best perk of remote work more than doubled between 2020 and 2023.

    For most employees, the crown jewel of remote work appears to be flexibility. According to Finance Buzz’s report, 35% of telecommuters indicated that the freedom to live and work from any location is the most compelling benefit, a shift from being the second most favored perk in a 2020 survey. This surge coincides with the growing allure of the “digital nomad” lifestyle and advances in telecommuting technology.

    Coming in second place, 25% of remote workers appreciated the scheduling freedom their jobs provided. This marks a drop from 2020, when 31% cited schedule flexibility as their top perk. While the preferred benefits switched positions between the two surveys, they remained the top two choices, resonating with 60% of respondents collectively.

    While telecommuting isn’t without its pitfalls, no single downside stood out unanimously. Difficulties in fostering workplace relationships were mentioned by 41% of respondents, and 40% reported that working from home presented more distractions.

    The adoption of remote work has made a lasting impression on the workforce, with many reluctant to revert to a conventional office setting. In fact, 36% of remote workers stated they would prefer quitting their job to relinquishing their work-from-home status. Given this sentiment, it’s hardly startling that 58% of telecommuters are inclined to seek another remote position for their next career move, while a mere 14% would opt otherwise.

    You can read the full study here. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 18:00

  • Fauci And The CIA: A New Explanation Emerges
    Fauci And The CIA: A New Explanation Emerges

    Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via Brownstone Institute,

    Jeremy Farrar’s book from August 2021 is relatively more candid than most accounts of the initial decision to lock down in the US and UK. “It’s hard to come off nocturnal calls about the possibility of a lab leak and go back to bed,” he wrote of the clandestine phone calls he was getting from January 27-31, 2020. They had already alerted the FBI and MI5. 

    “I’d never had trouble sleeping before, something that comes from spending a career working as a doctor in critical care and medicine. But the situation with this new virus and the dark question marks over its origins felt emotionally overwhelming. None of us knew what was going to happen but things had already escalated into an international emergency. On top of that, just a few of us – Eddie [Holmes], Kristian [Anderson], Tony [Fauci] and I – were now privy to sensitive information that, if proved to be true, might set off a whole series of events that would be far bigger than any of us. It felt as if a storm was gathering, of forces beyond anything I had experienced and over which none of us had any control.”

    At that point in the trajectory of events, intelligence services on both sides of the Atlantic had been put on notice. Anthony Fauci also received confirmation that money from the National Institutes of Health had been channeled to the offending lab in Wuhan, which meant that his career was on the line. Working at a furious pace, the famed “Proximal Origin” paper was produced in record time. It concluded that there was no lab leak. 

    In a remarkable series of revelations this week, we’ve learned that the CIA was involved in trying to make payments to those authors (thank you whistleblower), plus it appears that Fauci made visits to the CIA’s headquarters, most likely around the same time. 

    Suddenly we get some possible clarity in what has otherwise been a very blurry picture. The anomaly that has heretofore cried out for explanation is how it is that Fauci changed his mind so dramatically and precisely on the merit of lockdowns for the virus. One day he was counseling calm because this was flu-like, and the next day he was drumming up awareness of the coming lockdown. That day was February 27, 2020, the same day that the New York Times joined with alarmist propaganda from its lead virus reporter Donald G. McNeil. 

    On February 26, Fauci was writing: “Do not let the fear of the unknown… distort your evaluation of the risk of the pandemic to you relative to the risks that you face every day… do not yield to unreasonable fear.”

    The next day, February 27, Fauci wrote actress Morgan Fairchild – likely the most high-profile influencer he knew from the firmament – that “be prepared to mitigate an outbreak in this country by measures that include social distancing, teleworking, temporary closure of schools, etc.”

    To be sure, twenty-plus days had passed between the time Fauci alerted intelligence and when he decided to become the voice for lockdowns. We don’t know the exact date of the meetings with the CIA. But generally until now, most of February 2020 has been a blur in terms of the timeline. Something was going on but we hadn’t known just what. 

    Let’s distinguish between a proximate and distal cause of the lockdowns.

    The proximate cause is the fear of a lab leak and an aping of the Wuhan strategy of keeping everyone in their homes to stop the spread. They might have believed this would work, based on the legend of how SARS-1 was controlled. The CIA had dealings with Wuhan and so did Fauci. They both had an interest in denying the lab leak and stopping the spread. The WHO gave them cover. 

    The distal reasons are more complicated. What stands out here is the possibility of a quid pro quo. The CIA pays scientists to say there was no lab leak and otherwise instructs its kept media sources (New York Times) to call the lab leak a conspiracy theory of the far right. Every measure would be deployed to keep Fauci off the hot seat for his funding of the Wuhan lab. But this cooperation would need to come at a price. Fauci would need to participate in a real-life version of the germ games (Event 201 and Crimson Contagion). 

    It would be the biggest role of Fauci’s long career. He would need to throw out his principles and medical knowledge of, for example, natural immunity and standard epidemiology concerning the spread of viruses and mitigation strategies. The old pandemic playbook would need to be shredded in favor of lockdown theory as invented in 2005 and then tried in Wuhan. The WHO could be relied upon to say that this strategy worked. 

    Fauci would need to be on TV daily to somehow persuade Americans to give up their precious rights and liberties. This would need to go on for a long time, maybe all the way to the election, however implausible this sounds. He would need to push the vaccine for which he had already made a deal with Moderna in late January. 

    Above all else, he would need to convince Trump to go along. That was the hardest part. They considered Trump’s weaknesses. He was a germaphobe so that’s good. He hated Chinese imports so it was merely a matter of describing the virus this way. But he also has a well-known weakness for deferring to highly competent and articulate professional women. That’s where the highly reliable Deborah Birx comes in: Fauci would be her wingman to convince Trump to green-light the lockdowns. 

    What does the CIA get out of this? The vast intelligence community would have to be put in charge of the pandemic response as the rule maker, the lead agency. Its outposts such as CISA would handle labor-related issues and use its contacts in social media to curate the public mind. This would allow the intelligence community finally to crack down on information flows that had begun 20 years earlier that they had heretofore failed to manage. 

    The CIA would hobble and hamstring the US president, whom they hated. And importantly, there was his China problem. He had wrecked relations through his tariff wars. So far as they were concerned, this was treason because he did it all on his own. This man was completely out of control. He needed to be put in his place. To convince the president to destroy the US economy with his own hand would be the ultimate coup de grace for the CIA. 

    A lockdown would restart trade with China. It did in fact achieve that. 

    How would Fauci and the CIA convince Trump to lock down and restart trade with China? By exploiting these weaknesses and others too: his vulnerability to flattery, his desire for presidential aggrandizement, and his longing for Xi-like powers over all to turn off and then turn on a whole country. Then they would push Trump to buy the much-needed personal protective equipment from China. 

    They finally got their way: somewhere between March 10 or possibly as late as March 14, Trump gave the go ahead. The press conference of March 16, especially those magical 70 seconds in which Fauci read the words mandating lockdowns because Birx turned out to be too squeamish, was the great turning point. A few days later, Trump was on the phone with Xi asking for equipment. 

    In addition, such a lockdown would greatly please the digital tech industry, which would experience a huge boost in demand, plus large corporations like Amazon and WalMart, which would stay open as their competitors were closed. Finally, it would be a massive subsidy to pharma and especially the mRNA platform technology itself, which would enjoy the credit for ending the pandemic. 

    If this whole scenario is true, it means that all along Fauci was merely playing a role, a front man for much deeper interests and priorities in the CIA-led intelligence community. This broad outline makes sense of why Fauci changed his mind on lockdowns, including the timing of the change. There are still many more details to know, but these new fragments of new information take our understanding in a new and more coherent direction. 

    Jeffrey A. Tucker is Founder and President of the Brownstone Institute. He is also Senior Economics Columnist for Epoch Times, author of 10 books, including Liberty or Lockdown, and thousands of articles in the scholarly and popular press. He speaks widely on topics of economics, technology, social philosophy, and culture.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 17:40

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  • Is World War III About To Start? Part II: Are The Military-Industrial Complex & Deep State Driving Us To War?
    Is World War III About To Start? Part II: Are The Military-Industrial Complex & Deep State Driving Us To War?

    Authored by Richard C Cook via ScheerPost.com,

    Read Part 1 of this series here.

    Why is the U.S. refusing to call a halt to the Ukraine madness? Why can’t an era of “Peaceful Coexistence” in Europe and the world be declared or at least sought? How about détente with Russia? With Russia and China? What is wrong with that?

    We’ll start peeling the onion by looking at the U.S. military-industrial complex.

    Of course, President Eisenhower warned us against the MIC over 60 years ago in his “Farewell Address” of January 20, 1961. Among other remarks he said:

    “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”

    Today about 2.1 million people are employed by the defense industry. According to Acara Solutions, a major MIC recruiting firm, their average annual salary is $106,700, 40 percent higher than the national average. The companies they work for produced revenues in 2022 of $741 billion. How much of their production is high-priced junk, no one knows. The performance of U.S.-produced armaments in the Ukraine conflict does not seem impressive. No modern U.S. weapons have ever been tested in an industrial-type war against an equal adversary.  

    The MIC also includes active-duty uniformed personnel of 1.37 million and reserves of 849,000. There are 750 U.S. military bases in more than 80 countries outside of the U.S. More than 100,000 U.S. military personnel are stationed in Europe. Annual salary and benefits of the military are currently $146 billion per year, escalating with COLAs compounded at two to three percent annually, sometimes more. Some former U.S. military personnel are assumed to be fighting in Ukraine as mercenaries or helping direct the fighting from safe locations like Kiev or Lvov. 

    Then there are the civilian employees. According to the DoD, it employs more than 700,000 civilians “in an array of critical positions worldwide,” with compensation totaling about $70 billion. According to the Government Accountability Office, we may also add 560,000 contractor employees, whose compensation is typically higher than the career workforce. 

    We can also add hundreds of thousands of executives, managers, employees and contractors of the three-letter Deep State agencies, such as the CIA, NSA, DEA, FBI, and now DHS, etc., who interface with the MIC day in and day out and are part of the same fabric of state-sanctioned force and enemy identification and interdiction.   

    Added to the above are members of Congress who vote on military budgets and make the laws that protect the MIC from accountability, lobbyists who pressure those members to cast votes favorable to their MIC clients, private sector financial service employees who handle the retirement accounts of the MIC multitude, foreigners who are employed at overseas bases, and various scoundrels and hangers-on. I would include in the latter category the multitude of MIC cheerleaders from Hollywood who produce trashy spectacles like Top Gun. 

    On top of everything else, there are millions of retirees drawing annuities in excess of what most working-class Americans earn, many of these retirees double- or triple-dipping with lucrative jobs in business or government.

    Each of the above individuals supports multiple family members, workers, and vendors within the civilian economy who, with the ripple effect and velocity of money, keep entire towns, cities, states, regions, and industries afloat. An example is building the F-35 that has workers assembling it in 350 congressional districts. It is probably no exaggeration to say that given the vast exiting of civilian U.S. factories and jobs over the last half-century to cheap-labor countries abroad, the MIC is probably the principal economic engine of the U.S. as a whole.

    So are we going to tell what adds up to tens of millions of people, sorry, your services are no longer needed? Good luck with that. And isn’t it obvious that all these people, especially the higher echelons, are going to do everything within their power to persuade us that their jobs are so essential that without them we will shortly be overwhelmed and eaten alive by every “enemy” on the planet? 

    If you doubt what I am saying, ask any retired colonel or general who has hired himself out as a talking head to CNN or MSNBC. It’s also why DoD has formally declared Russia and China our two “adversaries,” because, after all, you have to point the finger at someone and blame them for your own dysfunctional society.

    But as I witnessed personally in my NASA days, many MIC personnel never do a lick of honest work, or are mainly occupied with paper shuffling or other busywork, especially with work-at-home now the vogue, with many spending their days surfing the internet, or worse, while drawing a level of pay that puts most civilian workers in the shade. 

    Not to mention stay-at-home mothers, teachers and caregivers, first responders, law enforcement personnel, food service employees, or the unemployed, underemployed, or homeless. Yet many of these people, while working hard for low pay, if any, have a sense of fulfillment and self-worth that surpasses the swarms of MIC bureaucrats who can’t help but feel degraded in their superfluous and often pointless vocational stagnation. 

    Is all this enough to create an imperative for World War III? You tell me. It certainly has to be a contributing factor. Plus it saps the nation’s natural strength. We could even say that the U.S. war machine is a cancerous tumor that has metastasized throughout the entirety of American society, polluting and corrupting every aspect of life, including the body politic, the environment, the entertainment industry, the mass media, education, scientific research, etc. 

    It was the military, for example, that supported planning for the U.S. lockdowns during the COVID so-called pandemic, as documented by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., in his monumental indictment of Big Pharma/MIC collusion in his book The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health. 

    A subset of the question whether the MIC could drive us to war for its own selfish reasons is whether a president, a political party, or the Deep State itself could use the MIC to generate a war to save their own sorry asses at a time of scandal or possible election loss, along the lines of the movie Wag the Dog? 

    We’ll leave that an open question for now. At least Tucker Carlson seems to think so in his forecast that the Biden administration will spark a hot war with Russia before the 2024 election. Of course, we can’t know what they are really planning, because they hide behind billions of classified documents and imprison those who dare to lift the veil of secrecy. We are vaguely aware that the top dogs have their own “continuity of government” plans with hidden bunkers, an “underground Pentagon,” caches of MREs that can last decades, etc. Just don’t ask to see any of this.

    Every war the U.S. has fought since Korea, including the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, has been an MIC bonanza. Then there’s the simple fact that if you are an individual possessing a weapon of any kind, whether a military pistol or an ICBM, despite the protocols that govern their use, you still fantasize about using that weapon on somebody. This alone creates a societal imperative towards war. Plus I have had the wife of an MIC worker tell me straight up that she favored war because otherwise how would their family eat? 

    Another way to look at it is that we have a deeply entrenched system of military socialism. I happen to think it’s very corrupt, very inefficient, and very dangerous. 

    IS BRICS+ VS. THE WEST DECIDING THE PARAMETERS OF THE CONFLICT?

    This brings us to the subject of economics. The national level of expenditure on the MIC and its role as the central tent pole of the U.S. economy certainly point to economic motives in any stampede to war. But wealth depends on resources and their exploitation. In fact, the seizure of the world’s resources had become a finely-honed specialty of the European powers, with the U.S. joining in the later stages, during the entire era of colonization. Even today, the populations of former Western colonies continue to work the farms, plantations, mines, and transport facilities of Western owners.

    Of course, the Europeans and Americans have been justifying their expropriation of the resources of other countries for centuries by virtue of ideologies like “right of conquest,” “survival of the fittest,” “white man’s burden, etc.,” always proclaiming shock at native resistance. During the 19th century, such resistance was decisively subdued by the invention of the Maxim machine gun. 

    The U.S. gained early experience in grabbing the land and its bounty through dispossession of Native Americans and the massive growth of slave-worked plantation agriculture. Westward expansion brought the taking of land for gold and silver prospecting. By the time the U.S. began to gain colonies, the rich soil of Hawaii offered wealth to pineapple growers. A prime motive of the Spanish-American War was confiscation of Cuban sugar plantations. In Central America it was bananas and coffee. In Chile it was copper. 

    At the turn of the 20th century, U.S. bankers lent money to the British to aid them in fighting the Boers in order to secure the incredible deposits of diamonds and gold beneath the surface in South Africa. We also know that U.S. bankers saw a great business opportunity in the chance to lend money to Britain and France in order for them to prosecute World War I against Germany. After that war, the Rockefeller oil empire began its expansion into the Middle East. President Franklin D. Roosevelt is suspected to have baited Japan into attacking Pearl Harbor because there was nothing better than a good war to boost employment after failing to create a full-employment economy during the Great Depression. When the “War on Terror” commenced, the chief topic on the agenda at President George W. Bush’s staff meetings was the takeover of Iraq’s oil fields. 

    Today, the MIC has one overriding mission: protect the overseas interests of big U.S. banks, investment and hedge funds, and multinational corporations. The biggest U.S. defense firm is Lockheed, which itself is largely owned by three giant hedge funds: State Street, Vanguard, and BlackRock. The CIA is there to control foreign governments, overthrow them as needed, and keep foreign leaders and journalists on the payroll while quaking with fear for their careers or even lives. The paradigm is most egregious in Europe, which the Anglo-Americans view as vassals, with the E.U. a policeman. NATO is an enforcement mechanism for U.S./U.K. control, not to defend against Russia, which today has no discernible interest in political control over Europe, even if it were capable of making such a move, which it isn’t.

    Rather than defend against a non-existent Russian threat, the West would love to get its hands on Russian oil, gas, and mineral resources, as it began to do in the 1990s before Putin took over and fostered a nationalistic revival. The U.S. had long been targeting the Caspian Basin and Central Asia, which now seemed vulnerable with the separation from Russia of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. These countries are still in play for the West, as are the microstates of the Caucasus. 

    The 2014 U.S.-sponsored coup in Ukraine was partly for acquisition of Ukrainian land and resources, including the fertile farmland of the steppes. Big players are Cargill, ADM, and BlackRock, along with numerous E.U. companies. Despite global warming and professions of getting rid of fossil fuels, trying to get hold of hydrocarbons worldwide remains a matter of Western urgency. 

    But with the current situation, another dimension is “dollar hegemony.” This brings us to BRICS. Perhaps the biggest threat to Western economic imperialism is the formation of the economic compact consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. As the Ukraine conflict deepens, BRICS expansion has become of particular importance to Russia, as it is obviously a means of outflanking the West and beating it at its own geopolitical game. 

    At the South African BRICS summit of August 22-24, 2023, six new nations were added: Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Argentina, leading to BRICS+. Added to the earlier rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the effects of BRICS and its expansion are seismic. Additional nations that have expressed an interest in BRICS are Cuba, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Comoros, Gabon, Kazakhstan, and at least a dozen others. 

    The potential of BRICS is the inclusion of half or more of the world’s population. BRICS economies had overtaken G-7 economies by 2012, and the gap between BRICS and G-7 economies is widening irreversibly.

    GDP is not a viable measure of economic performance for “reserve currency” nations like the U.S. that can print money “out of thin air.” But there is a linear relationship between real goods production and energy. Thus a much more reliable economic performance evaluation can be inferred from electricity generation, as the following chart illustrates:

    The following can be noted:

    • The BRICS economies overtook G-7 economies in 2012, with the gap increasing steadily since.

    • G-7 economies have not witnessed any growth since the 2008-2009 “Great Financial Crisis.”

    • G-7 economies have shrunk by 6 percent since their peak in 2007.

    • BRICS economies were 50 percent greater than G-7 economies by 2020.

    • BRICS+ economies (BRICS plus six candidate countries) were 60 percent greater than G-7 economies by 2020.

    The graph also explains why the BRICS nations are not pursuing aggressive policies, despite Western propaganda, as they view time as being on their side. Naturally they refuse the “reserve currency” prerogative which allows G-7 countries to siphon hard earned wealth from the rest of the world. The most worrying aspect for the U.S. is the obvious intention of BRICS to foster trade exchanges in local currencies, bypassing the primacy of the dollar, and secondarily the Euro. 

    According to Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital Ltd. and former IMF/Morgan Stanley economist, “The dollar share in foreign reserves has lost about 11 percent since 2016. The decisive event has been Western sanctions and the freezing of Russia’s dollar reserves.” He adds: “Taking purchasing power into account the BRICS nations currently account for 32 percent of global economic output, compared to 30 percent covered by the G7 countries.” This differential is bound to worsen as new nations are added to BRICS.

    As BRICS, ASEAN and other countries increasingly trade in national currencies in lieu of Western reserve currencies, this results in weakening of those Western currencies, as evidenced by the drop in their purchasing power, aka inflation. Over time, the standards of living commensurate with the production of tradable goods will result in growing poverty in the U.S. and the EU that will result in social instability. But the damage will fall largely to the lower income echelons, resulting in growth in an already unsustainable wealth disparity, with the GINI factor for wealth distribution in the U.S. reaching 0.85 in 2020. 

    This explains several observations:

    1. Why BRICS do not find it necessary to issue a new currency: Trade in national currencies will bring an end to the wealth siphoning mechanism of U.S. dollar hegemony. 

    2. Why Russia and China are trying to maintain non-confrontational policies despite provocations: As trade away from the U.S., UK, and EU increases with growing use of national currencies, political instability, particularly in the most de-industrialized Western nations, will result. Social discontent and political instability can already be witnessed throughout the West. This will only increase as impoverishment spreads due to depreciating currencies, leading to eventual implosion of the neoliberal political system. Thus Russia, China, and other sovereign nations have adopted a policy of “wait it out” rather than risk a kinetic war which would result in the deaths of millions. Nevertheless, these countries are embarking on an accelerated program of military development, along with strengthened alliances, in case war is inevitable. 

    3. Why the West is embarking on highly aggressive policies: The neoliberal cabals in control of the West realize that the changes occurring in the world, particularly as regards the monetary and financial global architecture, spell their doom, and hence are increasingly acting hysterically, fomenting conflict and chaos wherever they can. 

    It is dollar hegemony, dating back to the World War II-era Bretton Woods Agreements and the Nixonian removal of the international currency gold peg, that has allowed the U.S. to attempt overcoming its massive trade deficit and its public debt at $33.1 trillion and growing. Only by selling trillions of dollars of Treasury bonds to foreign countries, especially China, Japan, and Korea, has the U.S. been able to straddle the globe with the hundreds of military bases and other facilities it relies on to secure a world order friendly to its interests. For decades, foreign countries have needed dollars to trade in petroleum and other commodities. But with BRICS, that imperative may end sooner rather than later. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen has said this will never happen, but other policy makers are seeing the writing on the wall. 

    Are the prospects of BRICS so serious that the U.S. could launch World War III against its main powers, Russia, China, and now Iran, as a last-ditch act of desperation as its entire world order veers toward collapse? 

    It hardly bodes well that these three nations, along with North Korea, have been identified by Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee as the new “axis of evil.” She speaks for much of the U.S. political class. 

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 02:00

  • The New Abnormal: Authoritarian Control Freaks Want To Micromanage Our Lives
    The New Abnormal: Authoritarian Control Freaks Want To Micromanage Our Lives

    Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Man is born free but everywhere is in chains.”

    – Jean-Jacques Rousseau

    Authoritarian control freaks out to micromanage our lives have become the new normal or, to be more accurate, the new abnormal when it comes to how the government relates to the citizenry.

    This overbearing despotism, which pre-dates the COVID-19 hysteria, is the very definition of a Nanny State, where government representatives (those elected and appointed to work for us) adopt the authoritarian notion that the government knows best and therefore must control, regulate and dictate almost everything about the citizenry’s public, private and professional lives.

    Indeed, it’s a dangerous time for anyone who still clings to the idea that freedom means the right to think for yourself and act responsibly according to your best judgment.

    This tug-of-war for control and sovereignty over our selves impacts almost every aspect of our lives, whether you’re talking about decisions relating to our health, our homes, how we raise our children, what we consume, what we drive, what we wear, how we spend our money, how we protect ourselves and our loved ones, and even who we associate with and what we think.

    As Liz Wolfe writes for Reason, “Little things that make people’s lives better, tastier, and less tedious are being cracked down on by big government types in federal and state governments.”

    You can’t even buy a stove, a dishwasher, a showerhead, a leaf blower, or a lightbulb anymore without running afoul of the Nanny State.

    In this way, under the guise of pseudo-benevolence, the government has meted out this bureaucratic tyranny in such a way as to nullify the inalienable rights of the individual and limit our choices to those few that the government deems safe enough.

    Yet limited choice is no choice at all. Likewise, regulated freedom is no freedom at all.

    Indeed, as a study by the Cato Institute concludes, for the average American, freedom has declined generally over the past 20 years. As researchers William Ruger and Jason Sorens explain, “We ground our conception of freedom on an individual rights framework. In our view, individuals should be allowed to dispose of their lives, liberties, and property as they see fit, so long as they do not infringe on the rights of others.”

    The overt signs of the despotism exercised by the increasingly authoritarian regime that passes itself off as the United States government (and its corporate partners in crime) are all around us: censorship, criminalizing, shadow banning and de-platforming of individuals who express ideas that are politically incorrect or unpopular; warrantless surveillance of Americans’ movements and communications; SWAT team raids of Americans’ homes; shootings of unarmed citizens by police; harsh punishments meted out to schoolchildren in the name of zero tolerance; community-wide lockdowns and health mandates that strip Americans of their freedom of movement and bodily integrity; armed drones taking to the skies domestically; endless wars; out-of-control spending; militarized police; roadside strip searches; privatized prisons with a profit incentive for jailing Americans; fusion centers that spy on, collect and disseminate data on Americans’ private transactions; and militarized agencies with stockpiles of ammunition, to name some of the most appalling.

    Yet as egregious as these incursions on our rights may be, it’s the endless, petty tyrannies—the heavy-handed, punitive-laden dictates inflicted by a self-righteous, Big-Brother-Knows-Best bureaucracy on an overtaxed, overregulated, and underrepresented populace—that illustrate so clearly the degree to which “we the people” are viewed as incapable of common sense, moral judgment, fairness, and intelligence, not to mention lacking a basic understanding of how to stay alive, raise a family, or be part of a functioning community.

    When the dictates of petty bureaucrats carry greater weight than the individual rights of the citizenry, we’re in trouble, folks.

    Federal and state governments have used the law as a bludgeon to litigate, legislate and micromanage our lives through overregulation and overcriminalization.

    This is what happens when bureaucrats run the show, and the rule of law becomes little more than a cattle prod for forcing the citizenry to march in lockstep with the government.

    Overregulation is just the other side of the coin to overcriminalization, that phenomenon in which everything is rendered illegal, and everyone becomes a lawbreaker.

    You don’t have to look far to find abundant examples of Nanny State laws that infantilize individuals and strip them of their ability to decide things for themselves. Back in 2012, then-New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg infamously proposed a ban on the sale of sodas and large sugary drinks in order to guard against obesity. Other localities enacted bans on texting while jaywalking, wearing saggy pants, having too much mud on your car, smoking outdoors, storing trash in your car, improperly sorting your trash, cursing within earshot of others, or screeching your tires.

    Yet while there are endless ways for the Nanny State to micromanage our lives, things become truly ominous when the government adopts mechanisms enabling it to monitor us for violations in order to enforce its many laws.

    Nanny State, meet the all-seeing, all-knowing Surveillance State and its sidekick, the muscle-flexing Police State.

    You see, in an age of overcriminalization—when the law is wielded like a hammer to force compliance to the government’s dictates whatever they might be—you don’t have to do anything “wrong” to be fined, arrested or subjected to raids and seizures and surveillance.

    You just have to refuse to march in lockstep with the government.

    As policy analyst Michael Van Beek warns, the problem with overcriminalization is that there are so many laws at the federal, state and local levels—that we can’t possibly know them all.

    “It’s also impossible to enforce all these laws. Instead, law enforcement officials must choose which ones are important and which are not. The result is that they pick the laws Americans really must follow, because they’re the ones deciding which laws really matter,” concludes Van Beek. “Federal, state and local regulations — rules created by unelected government bureaucrats — carry the same force of law and can turn you into a criminal if you violate any one of them… if we violate these rules, we could be prosecuted as criminals. No matter how antiquated or ridiculous, they still carry the full force of the law. By letting so many of these sit around, just waiting to be used against us, we increase the power of law enforcement, which has lots of options to charge people with legal and regulatory violations.”

    This is the police state’s superpower: empowered by the Nanny State, it has been vested with the authority to make our lives a bureaucratic hell.

    Indeed, if you were unnerved by the rapid deterioration of privacy under the Surveillance State, prepare to be terrified by the surveillance matrix that will be ushered in by the Nanny State working in tandem with the Police State.

    The government’s response to COVID-19 saddled us with a Nanny State inclined to use its draconian pandemic powers to protect us from ourselves.

    The groundwork laid with COVID-19 is a prologue to what will become the police state’s conquest of a new, relatively uncharted, frontier: inner space, specifically, the inner workings (genetic, biological, biometric, mental, emotional) of the human race.

    Consider how many more ways the government could “protect us” from ourselves under the guise of public health and safety.

    For instance, under the guise of public health and safety, the government could use mental health care as a pretext for targeting and locking up dissidents, activists and anyone unfortunate enough to be placed on a government watch list.

    When combined with advances in mass surveillance technologies, artificial intelligence-powered programs that can track people by their biometrics and behavior, mental health sensor data (tracked by wearable data and monitored by government agencies such as HARPA), threat assessments, behavioral sensing warnings, precrime initiatives, red flag gun laws, and mental health first-aid programs aimed at training gatekeepers to identify who might pose a threat to public safety, these preemptive mental health programs could well signal a tipping point in the government’s efforts to penalize those engaging in so-called “thought crimes.”

    This is how it begins.

    On a daily basis, Americans are already relinquishing (in many cases, voluntarily) the most intimate details of who we are—their biological makeup, our genetic blueprints, and our biometrics (facial characteristics and structure, fingerprints, iris scans, etc.)—in order to navigate an increasingly technologically-enabled world.

    Having conditioned the population to the idea that being part of society is a privilege and not a right, such access could easily be predicated on social credit scores, the worthiness of one’s political views, or the extent to which one is willing to comply with the government’s dictates, no matter what they might be.

    COVID-19 with its talk of mass testing, screening checkpoints, contact tracing, immunity passports, and snitch tip lines for reporting “rule breakers” to the authorities was a preview of what’s to come.

    We should all be leery and afraid.

    At a time when the government has a growing list—shared with fusion centers and law enforcement agencies—of ideologies, behaviors, affiliations and other characteristics that could flag someone as suspicious and result in their being labeled potential enemies of the state, it won’t take much for any of us to be considered outlaws or terrorists.

    After all, the government likes to use the words “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist” interchangeably. The Department of Homeland Security broadly defines extremists as individuals “that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or rejecting government authority entirely.”

    At some point, being an individualist will be considered as dangerous as being a terrorist.

    When anything goes when it’s done in the name of national security, crime fighting and terrorism, “we the people” have little to no protection against SWAT team raids, domestic surveillance, police shootings of unarmed citizens, indefinite detentions, and the like, whether or  not you’ve done anything wrong.

    In an age of overcriminalization, you’re already a criminal.

    All the government needs is proof of your law-breaking. They’ll get it, too.

    Whether it’s through the use of surveillance software such as ShadowDragon that allows police to watch people’s social media activity, or technology that uses a home’s WiFi router and smart appliances to allow those on the outside to “see” throughout your home, it’s just a matter of time.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, it’s no longer a question of whether the government will lock up Americans for defying one of its numerous mandates but when.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/28/2023 – 00:00

  • US Admits Israel Into Visa Waiver Program In Major Upgrade To Ties
    US Admits Israel Into Visa Waiver Program In Major Upgrade To Ties

    The Netanyahu government has just pulled off a major diplomatic victory, reaching a longtime goal toward upgrading US-Israel relations. 

    US Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas has agreed to Israel’s entry into the US Visa Waiver Program, which means that for the first time Israeli citizens will be able to travel to the United States visa-free. It will take effect Nov. 30, according to US officials.

    Image: Flash90

    “The designation of Israel into the Visa Waiver Program is an important recognition of our shared security interests and the close cooperation between our two countries,” Mayorkas said in Wednesday statement confirming Israel’s upgraded status.

    And Secretary of State Antony Blinken hailed the designation as “a critical step forward” in the US strategic partnership with Israel “that will further strengthen long-standing people-to-people engagement, economic cooperation, and security coordination between our two countries” – as quoted in Axios.

    “This important achievement will enhance freedom of movement for U.S. citizens, including those living in the Palestinian Territories or traveling to and from them,” he added, in reference to reciprocity. Israel will now allow US passport holders visa-free travel in return, including theoretically Palestinian-Americans.

    However, Arab groups and Palestinian activists have charged that Israel has failed to change its entry policies in practice, and that it will still discriminate against Palestinians, even if they are US citizens. According to Al Jazeera:

    On Tuesday, the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC) said it had filed a lawsuit against Israel’s VWP designation. “Credible reports and ADC’s own investigations have shown that Israel failed to meet all of the legal requirements for admission,” the group said.

    Abed Ayoub, the ADC’s executive director, told Al Jazeera earlier this week that by letting Israel into the programme, the Biden administration “has endorsed and embraced Israeli discrimination and apartheid”.

    “With this decision, the US government will be sending a message that not all American passport holders are equal,” Ayoub said.

    This significant step in US-Israel relations comes after last week President Biden and PM Netanyahu met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

    Relations have been on the rocks, given the controversial judicial reform initiative in Israel, and the fact that Netanyahu was never invited to the White House after being sworn in again as prime minister. Netanyahu took it as a personal affront, but this Visa Waiver Program upgrade is being seen as a breakthrough.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 23:40

  • Canada Launches UN Declaration Targeting Online 'Disinformation'
    Canada Launches UN Declaration Targeting Online ‘Disinformation’

    Authored by Amanda Brown via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly has launched a United Nations declaration that calls for action to protect what it calls “information integrity” and to tackle “disinformation.”

    Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly speaks with reporters in the foyer of the House of Commons in Ottawa on April 27, 2023. (The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld)

    Ms. Joly launched the Global Declaration on Information Integrity Online jointly with Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister Hanke Bruins Slot during the U.N. General Assembly in New York on Sept. 20.

    “Information integrity is essential to help ensure the strength of democratic processes and to protect fundamental rights,” says a joint statement by Canada and the Netherlands.

    “The erosion of information integrity, including the propagation of disinformation, weakens the strength of democratic engagement.”

    In a speech on Sept. 20, Ms. Joly said the declaration is a “concrete step toward establishing global norms on disinformation, misinformation, and information integrity,” the National Post reported.

    Speaking to the U.N. on the same day, Ms. Bruins Slot said the emerging online environment makes it difficult to determine what is and what is not truthful.

    “Every day, the world is flooded with disinformation and misinformation. Rapid advances in technology—particularly generative AI—make it more and more difficult to tell fact from fiction,” she said.

    Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Japan, and South Korea are among the 30 countries that have signed the declaration.

    The declaration promotes concepts such as respect for “the right to freedom of opinion and expression, and the freedom to seek, receive, and impart information.”

    It says signatories need to “take active steps to address misinformation and disinformation targeted at women, LGBTIQ+ persons, persons with disabilities and Indigenous Peoples.”

    It also calls on signatories to “refrain from unduly restricting human rights online, especially the freedom of opinion and expression, under the guise of countering disinformation,” and to “promote and respect pluralistic media and journalism, and protect access to media content as one measure to counter disinformation.”

    Multiple Strategies

    In recent years, the federal government has initiated a number of projects to counter “misinformation,” “disinformation” and what it considers extremist ideologies.

    Some initiatives are the result of international collaborative efforts to shape the flow of information, and others have been conceived closer to home.

    Canada’s participation in the Rapid Response Mechanism, established by G7 leaders at the 2018 G7 Summit in Charlevoix, Quebec, monitors the digital information environment. Its goal is to encourage cooperation among member countries to provide a coordinated response to “foreign state-sponsored disinformation” and the “evolving foreign threats to democracy.”

    The Liberal government has enacted legislation to shape the information space, with bills C-18 and C-11 being passed in recent months.

    The Online News Act, Bill C-18, which passed in June, has been framed as an attempt to defend democracy by bolstering the coffers of flailing legacy media with money from Big Tech.

    In reaction to the new legislation, Meta has restricted Canadians’ access to news content in their feeds, to avoid sharing revenue with media outlets. Google has threatened to take action but hasn’t yet.

    The Liberal government also passed Bill C-11, the Online Streaming Act, in order to boost Canadian content and to regulate some aspects of online streaming and social media.

    A new bill to address “online harms” is also in the works, but it does not appear to be a legislative priority for the government at this time.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 23:20

  • Costa Rica Declares State Of Emergency As Migrant Crisis Rocks Americas
    Costa Rica Declares State Of Emergency As Migrant Crisis Rocks Americas

    Costa Rica’s President Rodrigo Chaves declared a state of emergency on Tuesday as the number of migrants passing through the Central American country on the way toward the US surges, Reuters reported. 

    “I have instructed the security ministry to take a firm stance with anyone who takes Costa Rica’s kindness for weakness,” Chavez older reporters, referring to recent riots caused by migrants crossing the country.

    Chavez explained the tsunami of migrants is coming from Ecuador, Venezuela, Colombia, Haiti, Yemen, Bangladesh, and even China. He noted, “We all know that throughout the Americas there is a migration crisis.” 

    Since the beginning of the year, nearly 400,000 migrants have crossed the border from Panama into Costa Rica. 

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    Costa Rica’s migrant chaos comes as President Biden’s disastrous open southern border crisis has sparked a record-breaking month for August. According to the US Customs and Border Protection, 232,972 migrants were encountered at the US-Mexico border in August. 

    Biden greenlighted migrants worldwide in a June 20 statement marking World Refugee Day: “Welcoming refugees is part of who we are as Americans – our nation was founded by those fleeing religious persecution. When we take action to help refugees around the world, and include them, we honor this past and are stronger for it.” 

    In recent weeks, all hell has broken out at Eagle Pass, Texas, and other border crossings as migrants flood the southern border via an easy commute through Mexico by freight train. 

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    Law-abiding taxpayers need to ask why the Biden administration is pushing disastrous open border policies to flood illegals into metro areas ahead of the presidential election. These devastating policies are against the will of the majority and only supported by a fringe minority of political elites and progressive billionaires. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 23:00

  • US Rebukes Close Ally Egypt For Using Child Soldiers
    US Rebukes Close Ally Egypt For Using Child Soldiers

    Via Middle East Eye,

    A report published by Human Rights Watch (HRW) on Tuesday says that the US has added Egypt to its list of countries believed to be using child soldiers.

    According to the report, the designation by the State Department comes after a number of independent investigations, which found that Egypt’s military has been conducting joint operations with allied militia groups in northern Sinai that recruit children.

    File image of military forces in North Sinai, Egypt, via Reuters

    These operations often included combat against groups such as the Islamic State-affiliated Wilayat Sinai. Some of those recruited to fight were as young as 16, and were used for various tasks, including logistics and combat operations.

    Previous reports and investigations have revealed that the child soldiers were wounded or killed in the fighting. HRW also cited a number of videos shared on social media platforms, such as Facebook and TikTok, which have depicted child soldiers engaging in military operations.

    Last month, the UK-based Sinai Foundation for Human Rights (SFHR) said that between 2013 and 2022, children as young as 12 were enlisted, with some under 18 directly participating in hostilities.

    Others were tasked with spying, delivering food to military checkpoints and disassembling explosives, the group found. HRW’s findings, released on Tuesday, come after a months-long investigation by SFHR, partly based on testimonies from the children’s relatives, pro-government militia members and a child allegedly enlisted by armed forces.

    Under international law, governments are prohibited from recruiting children under the age of 15 for any purpose. Such recruitment by either a government or armed groups is listed as a war crime in the International Criminal Court statutes.

    SFHR said it was calling on the Egyptian government to “immediately halt the recruitment, enlistment and use of children under 18 as combatants or in military support roles that expose them to danger”.

    Before the Ukraine war, Egypt consistently ranked second in the world among highest US foreign aid recipients…

    Summary executions

    The IS faction Wilayat Sinai has been directly responsible for the deaths of some of the child soldiers, including through executions.

    In one instance, a 17-year-old was beheaded in front of his father with a scalpel, and his head was then left by a railway crossing in his village as a warning to others alleged to have worked with the Egyptian authorities.

    Other children were seriously wounded during their work, including several injured while trying to defuse explosives, SFHR said. Since 2015, local tribes in the area have formed a pro-government militia.

    The conflict has caused military and civilian casualties, although it is difficult to gauge the full picture as journalists have often been barred from the area.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 22:40

  • Culinary And Bartenders Unions Authorize Vegas-Wide Strike Across 22 Casinos And Resorts
    Culinary And Bartenders Unions Authorize Vegas-Wide Strike Across 22 Casinos And Resorts

    Tis the season to strike. 

    Following President Biden’s unprecedented visit to the picket lines of United Auto Workers in Michigan on Tuesday afternoon, by night, tens of thousands of members of the Culinary and Bartenders Unions in Las Vegas voted by 95% to authorize a strike against some of Sin City’s largest casinos and resorts. 

    “Now, Culinary and Bartenders Unions negotiating committee is authorized to call for a strike at 22 casino resorts properties on the Las Vegas Strip between the largest employers MGM Resorts, Caesars Entertainment Corporation, and Wynn/Encore Resorts. The Culinary Union, which is now authorized to call for a strike at any date or time, has not yet set a strike deadline and continues negotiating in good faith with all gaming companies,” Culinary Workers Union Local 226 wrote in a press release. 

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    Both unions represent 60,000 hospitality workers across Nevada, of which 53,000 are based on the Vegas Strip. In Vegas alone, 40,000 workers are employed at the 22 casino resorts, with many of them working for MGM Resorts, Caesars Entertainment, and Wynn/Encore Resorts. They noted that “negotiations with casino/hotel employers for a new 5-year contract” are underway. 

    “Today, Culinary and Bartenders Union members have sent the strongest message possible to the casino industry to settle a fair contract as soon as possible. We have negotiations scheduled next week with MGM Resorts, Caesars Entertainment, and Wynn/Encore Resorts and it’s up the three largest employers in Las Vegas to step up and do the right thing,” said Ted Pappageorge, Secretary-Treasurer for the Culinary Union. 

    Pappageorge continued, “If these gaming companies don’t come to an agreement, the workers have spoken and we will be ready to do whatever it takes – up to and including a strike. Workers brought every single one of these companies through the pandemic and into a great recovery, and workers deserve a fair share. Companies are doing extremely well and we are demanding that workers aren’t left behind.”

    The unions are asking for better wages, benefits, job security protections, and reduced workload, among other things.  

    If the unions strike, it raises the question of whether President Biden will stand on picket lines along the Vegas Strip with kitchen staff and bartenders. 

    And any new labor contract that meets the unions’ demands will only force casinos and resorts to raise drink and food prices: inflation. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 22:20

  • If China Is So Weak, Why Are Commodities So Strong?
    If China Is So Weak, Why Are Commodities So Strong?

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

    The decline in China’s home construction has been remarkable, almost rivaling the US housing crisis of 2008.

    It raises the question: Why are commodity prices so resilient if one of the biggest buyers is in malaise?

    It turns out China’s demand for raw materials is more robust than the overall economy. In other words, there’s some decoupling between China’s housing activity and commodities.

    US rates and crude oil remain the two most-important variables driving asset prices globally now. WTI crude rose to a one-year high near $94 a barrel. Ten-year yields jumped to 4.6%, pushing the dollar stronger along the way.

    The strength in oil, and more broadly the resilience of raw materials, seems at odds with a sluggish Chinese economy, considering the commodity-heavy housing sector remains in trouble. The floor space of newly started housing averaged about 87 million square meters over the past 12 months, marking a 60% decline from a peak in 2021. That isn’t far from the slump in the US housing market during the financial crisis.

    Yet, China’s import volume of commodities from oil and coal to iron ore remains in-line with the trend growth, as shown in this chart from UBS. What gives?

    For oil, it’s easier to understand. The US consumes 20% of global oil, compared with China’s 15%. So part of the oil price increase reflects a strong US economy, plus OPEC+ output cut. And in China, while the economy struggles, measures of transportation such as domestic flights and trucking have already risen above the pre-pandemic level, underpinning the demand for fuel.

    UBS’s strategists including Manik Narain noted two other supportive factors: strength in infrastructure and manufacturing investments, as well as export demand for commodity-sensitive products (steel) and inventory rebuilding (coal). Bloomberg also reported that railway construction has been robust.

    Source: UBS

    In a report published Wednesday, Goldman Sachs’s strategists Nicholas Snowdon and Aditi Rai also pointed out that the demand for copper and aluminum is supported by growth in renewable energy, the power grid and property completions. For example, China’s solar installations this year have surged.

    So the demand for commodities at idiosyncratic, micro levels is outperforming China’s macro economy. Is this a structural change? That remains to be seen. But for anyone who is bearish on China, shorting commodities hasn’t been a great trade so far.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 22:00

  • 100s Of Pages Of Newly Released Memos Spark Fresh Corruption Charges Ahead Of 1st Biden Impeachment Inquiry Hearing
    100s Of Pages Of Newly Released Memos Spark Fresh Corruption Charges Ahead Of 1st Biden Impeachment Inquiry Hearing

    Mountains of evidence released by House Republicans on the Ways and Means Committee today point to a decade and more of influence peddling and financial fraud involving President Joe Biden, his son Hunter, and brother, James, and multiple business associates.

    These documents will be reviewed on Thursday in the first special impeachment inquiry hearing of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee.

    Newly revealed materials confirm that Hunter Biden was traveling the world to sell influence and access to the Biden “brand,” meaning his father, Joe Biden.

    Hunter has even referred to access to his father as “the keys” to “my family’s only asset.”

    In just the last day, we have discovered:

    A $250K wire for Hunter Biden in 2019 from China with Joe Biden’s address as the beneficiary.

    The wires were from Wang Xin and Jonathan Li, the latter of whom ran a Chinese private equity fund (BHR) which Hunter was listed as being on the board of directors. Hunter also arranged for a meeting between Li and Joe Biden while Joe was VP, while Joe allegedly gave Li’s son a letter of recommendation.

    Emails showing a U.S Attorney would not allow FBI agents to investigate the Bidens for FARA violations.

    One document confirmed rumors that at one point the FBI and IRS investigated Hunter Biden for possible violations of the Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA), a federal law requiring disclosure of any lobbying activities on behalf of foreign powers. “Please focus on FARA evidence only,” Delaware Assistant U.S. Attorney Lesley Wolf emailed agents in August 2020 concerning a possible search warrant application.

    Test message showing that James Biden suggested it was normal for Joe Biden to be involved in his son’s business.

    In an affidavit to the committee, Ziegler suggested agents believed there was evidence in a series of WhatsApp encrypted text messages that Joe Biden was involved in the CEFC business deal and others before it, but the FBI’s interview with James Biden was constructed to avoid asking those questions.

    To back up the claim, Ziegler attached a summary of one text messages between James Biden and Hunter Biden from 2018. “This can work, you need a safe harbor. I can work with you father alone !! We as usual just need several months of his help for this to work. Let’s talk about it. It makes perfect sense to me. This is difficult to fully vet without talking,” the uncle wrote Hunter Biden.

    A memo showing that Burisma received Joe Biden’s talking points from lobbyists ahead of his trip to Ukraine.

    Ukrainian energy firm Burisma Holdings received Joe Biden’s planned talking points ahead of his December 2015 trip to Ukraine, according to a newly released memo from lobbying firm Blue Star Strategies.

    Blue Star Strategies sent the memo to Burisma on Dec. 2, 2015, after an apparent call with “senior administration officials” and detailed then-Vice President Joe Biden’s messaging strategy for his trip to Ukraine, the memo shows.

    And finally, and perhaps most damningly, as Kyle Becker highlighted, Hunter Biden signed off on a Burisma memo to the Ukrainian prosecutor who replaced Viktor Shokin that warned not to continue further investigations.

    “Moreover it is imperative that allegations of criminal activity made to the media about Burisma and/or Nikolay Zlochevsky come to an end.”

    And there is more, much more…

    Is that enough “evidence” for the “there is no evidence” misinformation-spreaders to fold?

    We highly doubt it… but tomorrow’s hearing will give us a glimpse at the Democrats’ plan…

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    While the proceedings will initially convene in that committee’s hearing room in the Rayburn House Office Building, the inquiry – authorized Sept. 12 by Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) – is being led by oversight panel chairman Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.).

    As Mark Tapscott detailed earlier via The Epoch Times, Republicans have portrayed the initial hearing as merely a summary or review of the evidence obtained to date, but Mr. Comer announced Sept. 26 that his panel received in response to subpoenas two previously unknown wire transfers to Hunter Biden from Chinese businessmen with numerous links to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

    “On July 26, 2019, Hunter Biden received a $10,000 wire from Wang Xin. On August 2, 2019, Hunter Biden received a $250,000 wire from Jonathan Li and Tan Ling. Both wires originated in Beijing and Joe Biden’s Wilmington, Delaware, home is listed as the beneficiary address for both wires,” Mr. Comer said in a statement. The transfers directly contradict claims by the President and Hunter Biden’s lawyer that no funds were received from China.

    In addition, Mr. Comer pointed out that “evidence shows Joe Biden developed a familiar relationship with Jonathan Li during his vice presidency and prior to these payments to Hunter Biden. Devon Archer, a Biden business associate, described [to the oversight committee in closed-door testimony] how Joe Biden met with Jonathan Li in Beijing, China, had a phone call with him, and later wrote college recommendation letters for his children.”

    Then on Sept. 27, Mr. Smith’s panel made public 700 pages of additional evidence provided by two IRS whistleblowers who were deeply involved in the government’s long-running investigation of Hunter Biden’s failure to pay taxes on income he received in 2014 and 2015.

    The Ways and Means panel made the new evidence public following a closed-door executive session in which all 18 Democrats opposed the release.

    The new materials made public by Mr. Smith indicated the Biden family received at least $19 million in income from entities in at least 23 countries around the world which was channeled through 20 shell companies.

    The income was ultimately received directly or indirectly by multiple members of the Biden family, including the president while he was vice president.

    The materials also included numerous references in emails and telephone messages to the senior Biden playing an active role in what Mr. Smith described to reporters during a Capitol Hill news conference following the executive session as “a complex and lucrative enterprise operated by the Biden family to enrich themselves to the tune of at least $20 million, with much of Hunter Biden’s share going unreported for taxes.”

    Mr. Smith further claimed the new evidence makes clear that “then Vice President Joe Biden’s political power and influence was ‘the brand’ that Hunter Biden was selling all over the world. Even more alarming, the Biden family foreign influence peddling operation suggests an effort to sway U.S. policy decisions.”

    The tranche of materials includes an August 2020 email from Lesley Wolf, a U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) attorney helping to oversee the investigation of Mr. Biden, telling investigators to redraft a search warrant to remove mention of “political figure 1.”

    That was a reference to then-presidential candidate Joe Biden, according to Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), chairman of the panel.

    “It’s about a two-tiered system of justice. If Joe Biden’s name had been Smith or Jones or Johnson, he would not have been excluded from this search warrant. But he was. And we wouldn’t know that if the whistleblowers had not come forward,” Rep. David Kustoff (R-Tenn.), a former U.S. attorney and member of the committee, told reporters.

    The backgrounds of the witnesses for the hearing suggest the impeachment inquiry’s summary of evidence will focus on three major areas.

    Witness Bruce Dubinski is a Florida-based forensic accountant who specializes in cases involving white-collar crime and financial fraud.

    He has testified as an expert witness in multiple federal and state bench and jury trials.

    Republican leaders of the impeachment inquiry have repeatedly described their efforts as “following the money,” and they have pointed to more than 170 Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) from financial institutions to the Department of Treasury concerning the movement of funds among the 20 Biden shell companies as evidence of money laundering in an attempt to conceal the sources of income to the family.

    Mr. Dubinski is expected to shed additional light on the significance of the SARs and how the funds flowed from foreign sources to the shell companies and then to members of the Biden family, including several grandchildren.

    Former Assistant Attorney General Eileen O’Connor will be the second witness providing testimony to the impeachment inquiry. She oversaw the Tax Division of the Department of Justice during the presidency of  George W. Bush from 2001 to 2007.

    Ms. O’Connor has since specialized in civil and criminal tax disputes, from the administrative investigative phases through trial litigation and appellate processes. Committee members will likely quiz her closely on issues and evidence related to the government’s investigation of Hunter Biden’s failure to report income and pay taxes on it.

    She will also be questioned about the significance of the failed plea deal rejected in July by a federal judge that would have enabled the president’s son to plead guilty to two tax misdemeanors and a felony gun charge, and which would have granted him immunity from all future prosecutions.

    Professor Jonathan Turley of the George Washington University Law School will be the third witness. Mr. Turley is a constitutional law authority who frequently testifies before committees of both chambers in Congress, including during the first impeachment hearings of the 117th Congress against President Donald Trump.

    A Fox News Contributor, Mr. Turley is a frequent commenter on controversial legal and political developments in the nation’s capital, and he has also served as a legal analyst for CBS News and NBC News on high-profile controversies. Committee members will likely seek his insights on constitutional issues related to impeachable activities and federal ethics laws and regulations.

    Democrats condemn the impeachment inquiry as a waste of time, especially coming with only hours until the federal government could be forced to shut down if Congress has not adopted a 2024 budget by midnight Saturday, the end of the current fiscal year.

    Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), the Ranking Member of the Ways and Means Committee, issued a statement following the closed executive session in which he labeled the hearing “a distraction from my colleagues’ inability to govern and from their inability to fund the government. Amid their chaos, they’ve failed to convince their own colleagues of the necessity of their political stunt, let alone the American people.”

    The Massachusetts Democrat, who preceded Mr. Smith as Chairman, added that “millions of women and children are at risk of losing their food assistance because of my colleagues’ disinterest in governing. How are we supposed to tell our constituents that Fox News hits were more important than their next meal? Or what are we supposed to say to the 2.2 million American workers who may go without a paycheck when Republicans shut down the government? For this Republican majority, regardless of evidence, all roads lead to impeachment. It’s a sad day for the Congress and for the American people.”

    Finally, The Daily Caller reports that an email obtained by a CNN producer showed Hunter Biden expected all of the “stuff” regarding his criminal wrongdoings to disappear once his father, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden, became president, according to documents the House Ways and Means Committee released.

    Justin T. Cole, the Office of Communications Director for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), notified the agency’s chief and deputy chief a CNN producer reached out about their investigation into Hunter’s tax and gun crimes, according to an email the Ways and Means committee released. Cole apparently said the CNN producer possessed an email from Hunter saying he believed he would be off the hook once his father became president and that he was unwilling to accept a plea deal.

    “Producer has an email from Hunter saying he expected all of this “stuff” to go away when his dad becomes President,” Cole wrote.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 21:45

  • The Great Demoralization
    The Great Demoralization

    Commentary by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    On March 6, 2020, the mayor of Austin, Texas, canceled the biggest tech and arts trade show in the world, South-by-Southwest, only a week before hundreds of thousands were to gather in the city.

    In an instant, with the stroke of a pen, it was all gone: hotel reservations, flight plans, performances, exhibitors, and all the hopes and dreams of thousands of merchants in the town. Economic impact: a loss $335 million in revenue at least. And that was just to the city alone, to say nothing of the broader impact.

    (imtmphoto/Shutterstock)

    It was the beginning of U.S. lockdowns. It wasn’t entirely clear at the time—my own sense was that this was a calamity that would lead to decades of successful lawsuits against the Austin mayor—but it turned out that Austin was the test case and template for the entire nation and then the world.

    The reason was of course COVID but the pathogen wasn’t even there. The idea was to keep it out of the city, an incredible and sudden fallback to a medieval practice that has nothing to do with modern public health understanding of how a respiratory virus should be handled.

    “In six months,” I wrote at the time, “if we are in a recession, unemployment is up, financial markets are wrecked, and people are locked in their homes, we’ll wonder why the heck governments chose disease ‘containment’ over disease mitigation. Then the conspiracy theorists get to work.”

    I was right about the conspiracy theorists but I had not anticipated that they would turn out to be right about nearly everything. We were being groomed for extended national and global lockdowns.

    At this point in the trajectory, we already knew the gradient of risk. It was not medically significant for healthy working-age adults (which still to this day the CDCs does not admit). So the shutdown likely protected very few if anyone.

    The extraordinary edict—worthy of a tin-pot dictator of a dark age—completely overrode the wishes of millions, all on the decision of one man, whose name is Steven Adler.

    “Was the consideration between maintaining that money, effectively rolling the dice, and doing what you did?” asked Texas Monthly of the mayor.

    His answer: “No.”

    Clarifying: “We made a decision based on what was in the best health interest for the city. And that is not an easy choice.”

    After the shocking cancellation, which overrode property rights and free will, the mayor urged all residents to go out and eat at restaurants and gather and spend money to support the local economy. In this later interview, he explained that he had no problem keeping the city open. He just didn’t want people from hither and yon—the dirty people, so to speak—to bring a virus with them.

    He was here playing the role of Prince Prospero in Edgar Allan Poe’s “The Masque of the Red Death.” He was turning the capital city of Texas into a castle in which the elite could hide from the virus, an action that also became a foreshadowing of what was to come: the division of the entire country into clean and dirty populations.

    The mayor further added a strange comment: “I think the spread of the disease here is inevitable. I don’t think that closing down South Bay was intended to stop the disease from getting here because it is coming. The assessment of our public health professionals was that we were risking it coming here more quickly, or in a greater way with a greater impact. And the longer we could put that off, the better this city is.”

    And there we have the “flatten the curve” thinking at work. Kick the can down the road. Postpone. Delay herd immunity as long as possible. Yes, everyone will get the bug but it is always better that it happens later rather than sooner. But why? We were never told. Flatten the curve was really just prolong the pain, keep our overlords in charge as long as possible, put normal life on hold, and stay safe as long as you can.

    Prolonging the pain might also have served another surreptitious agenda: let the working classes—the dirty people—get the bug and bear the burden of herd immunity so that the elites can stay clean and hopefully it will die out before it gets to the highest echelons. There was indeed a hierarchy of infection.

    In all these months, no one ever explained to the American public why prolonging the period of non-exposure was always better than meeting the virus sooner, gaining immunity, and getting over it. The hospitals around the country were not strained. Indeed, with the inexplicable shutdown of medical services for diagnostics and elective surgeries, hospitals in Texas were empty for months. Health care spending collapsed.

    This was the onset of the great demoralization. The message was: your property is not your own. Your events are not yours. Your decisions are subject to our will. We know better than you. You cannot take risks with your own free will. Our judgment is always better than yours. We will override anything about your bodily autonomy and choices that are inconsistent with our perceptions of the common good. There is no restraint on us and every restraint on you.

    This messaging and this practice is inconsistent with a flourishing human life, which requires the freedom of choice above all else. It also requires the security of property and contracts. It presumes that if we make plans, those plans cannot be arbitrarily canceled by force by a power outside of our control. Those are bare minimum presumptions of a civilized society. Anything else leads to barbarism and that is exactly where the Austin decision took us.

    We still don’t know precisely who was involved in this rash judgment or on what basis they made it. There was a growing sense in the country at the time that something was going to happen. There had been sporadic use of lockdown powers in the past. Think of the closure of Boston after the bombing in 2013. A year later, the state of Connecticut quarantined two travelers who might have been exposed to Ebola in Africa. These were the precedents.

    “The coronavirus is driving Americans into unexplored territory, in this case understanding and accepting the loss of freedom associated with a quarantine,” wrote the New York Times on March 19, 2020, three days after the Trump press conference that announced two weeks to flatten the curve.

    The experience on a nationwide basis fundamentally undermined the civil liberties and rights that Americans had long taken for granted. It was a shock to everyone but to young people still in school, it was utter trauma and a moment of mental reprogramming. They learned all the wrong lessons: they are not in charge of their lives; someone else is. The only way to be is to figure out the system and play along.

    We now see epic learning loss, psychological shock, population-wide obesity and substance abuse, a fall in investor confidence, a shrinkage of savings reflecting less interest in the future, and a dramatic decline in public participation in what used to be normal life events: church, theater, museums, libraries, fairs, symphonies, ballets, theme parks, and so on. Attendance in general is down by half and this is starving these venues of money. Most of the big institutions in large cities like New York, such as Broadway and the Met, are on life support. The symphony halls have a third empty seats despite lowering prices.

    It seems remarkable that this three-and-a-half year-long war against basic liberty for nearly everyone has come to this. And yet it should not be a surprise. All ideology aside, you simply cannot maintain much less cultivate a civilized life when governments, in combination with the commanding heights of media and large corporations, treat their citizens like lab rats in a science experiment. You only end in sucking away the essence and vibrancy of the human spirit, as well as the will to build a good life.

    In the name of public health, they sapped the will to health. And if you object, they shut you up. This is still going on daily.

    The ruling class that did this to the country has yet to speak honestly about what transpired. It was their actions that created the current cultural, economic, and social crisis. Their experiment left the country and our lives in shambles. We’ve yet to hear apologies or even basic honesty about any of it. Instead, all we get is more misleading propaganda about how we need yet another shot that doesn’t work.

    History provides many cases of a beaten down, demoralized, and increasingly poor and censored majority population being ruled over by an imperious, inhumane, sadistic, privileged, and yet tiny ruling class. We just never believed we would become one of those cases. The truth of this is so grim and glaring, and the likely explanation of what happened so shocking, that the entire subject is regarded as something of a taboo in public life.

    There will be no fixing this, no crawling out from under the rubble, until we get something from our rulers other than public preening about a job well done, in ads sponsored by Pfizer and Moderna.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 21:40

  • What's Behind The Record Divergence Between GDP and GDI, And Why Tomorrow The US Economy Will Be Revised Sharply Lower
    What’s Behind The Record Divergence Between GDP and GDI, And Why Tomorrow The US Economy Will Be Revised Sharply Lower

    Tomorrow morning years of politically-motivated upward drift in US economic “data” will get their come to Jesus moment of gravitational reacquaintance: at 8:30am ET on Thursday, alongside the final Q2 GDP print (expected unchanged at 2.2%) the BEA will also publish its once-every-five-years revision of GDP from Q1 2005 to Q1 2023, which according to Morgan Stanley will lead to a sharp downward revision, of as much as 80bps from Q2 GDP, and could potentially even indicate economic contraction in the first half of 2023.

    There are several reasons why GDP may be revised right off the proverbial cliff, but chief among them is the previously discussed record divergence between GDP and GDI, two series which – in theory – should be identical.

    Besides GDP, Gross domestic income (GDI) and select income components will also be revised from Q1 1979 through Q1 2023, but as Morgan Stanley explained previously, the likely drift in revisions will be toward a lower GDP and higher GDI. This is how the bank’s chief US economist Ellen Zentner explained it previously:

    GDP will likely be revised down toward GDI. Not only does the GDI/GDP gap tend to close in absolute terms, but we also find evidence that GDP usually converges toward GDI in YoY% rates. Exhibit 4 shows the relationship between the percentage point difference between GDI and GDP before the revision (latest quarter available before revision, YoY%) and the change in GDP growth rate after the revision (pp difference after vs before). There is a positive link between the two variables suggesting that a negative GDI/GDP difference like the one we have now might result in a downward revision to GDP. In Exhibit 4 we show two linear fits, one using the 20-year sample and the other only focusing on the revisions where the GDI/GDP gap closed, with a stronger link between the variables. Using the predictions from these simple models, we would expect to see a downward revision to 2Q 23 YoY% GDP of as much as -50bp to -80bp

    And while we discussed all this and more previously, a key question some may ask is what is the reason behind the massive divergence between GDP and GDI?

    For the answer we go to a recent note from JPM chief economist Michael Feroli who correctly notes that one dark cloud hanging over the US economic outlook all year has been the very weak performance of real gross domestic income (GDI), which has contracted 0.5% over the past four quarters.

    As noted before, GDI should equate with GDP, and past research has indicated that averaging GDI with GDP (also called GDO, or gross domestic output) provides a better measure of the underlying growth of economic activity than either measure viewed in isolation. Obviously, incorporating GDI clearly sends a more downbeat message about the economy’s recent performance, and suggests that the surge in the US Dollar and 10Y yields are just huge headfakes, and once the revised data is released we could see a brutal mean reversion in both the greenback and US Treasuries.

    But going back to the key question – what is behind the record difference between GDP and GDI – Feroli answers that this is the result of previously omitted net interest payments by the Federal Reserve, which will be corrected by tomorrow’s data revision, thereby boosting GDI. By itself this revision would close about half of the gap between these two broadest measures of the size of the economy.

    As Feroli explains next, “consistent with their legal status, the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) consider the Federal Reserve banks to be financial corporate businesses.” Their contribution to GDI has so far been in corporate profits, which track closely to the net income of the Federal Reserve system. Recently, the profits of the Federal Reserve banks have rapidly deteriorated, contributing to the weakness in GDI.

    This deterioration has been the result of ballooning interest payments on the Fed’s liabilities as short-term interest rates have increased (this would also explain the confusion experienced by Albert Edwards recently when he looked at a variation of this chart to conclude that it was “The Maddest Macro Chart I Have Seen In Many Years“).

    So to address the unprecedented collapse in Fed profits as a result of soaring interest rates…

    … In June, the BEA discussed how in the upcoming annual revision of the NIPAs they will begin recording interest paid by the Federal Reserve banks. Like corporate profits, net interest payments are an element of corporate operating surplus, which is an element of GDI. This methodological revision updates the NIPAs to keep them more consistent across accounts considering the Fed’s relatively newfound ability to pay interest.

    What does this mean for the record statistical discrepancy using between GDP and GDP? The answer comes from data pulled from the Fed’s balance sheet and administered interest rates. (Although the BEA documentation is ambiguous, JPM assumes that all paid liabilities will be recorded, including those for the overnight reverse repo facility).

    This inclusion would cut in half the statistical discrepancy in 2Q23, bringing it down from 1.8% of GDP to 0.9%.

    In other words, this revision would still leave real GDI growth negative in 4Q22 and 1Q23 – suggesting that GDP would also be revised negative for two quarters, potentially springing an unexpected recession on the US – but would raise the annualized growth in those quarters by about 1%-pt.

    The inclusion of Fed interest payments in GDI isn’t the only component that will be revised later this month. The inclusion of more complete data could push estimates of GDP and GDI either up or down. That said, JPM agrees with Morgan Stanley that there is a tendency for GDP and GDI to be revised toward each other. This fact, suggests that while GDI may not look so worrisome in another three weeks, GDP will also see some very substantive haircuts which may effectively eliminate much if not all purported “growth” in 2023.

    Finally, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid agrees, and in a recent note he writes that while tomorrow’s revisions could make GDI look more healthy (interest payments add income to parts of the economy) they could “also make interest costs in the economy look more realistic and hurt fundamental models of interest cover for those indebted.” As such, “the revisions are potentially an important event and could make us think differently about the US economy in the recent past and therefore the future” especially if it is revealed that due to faulty data, the Fed kept hiking in the first half of 2023 even though true GDP was flat if not outright negative.

    And if the sharp historical revision to GDP wasn’t enough, the coming plunge in Q4 GDP on the back of…

    • The resumption of student loan payments, which will subtract (at least) 0.5% (and likely much more) from quarterly annualized GDP growth
    • The government shutdown which will reduce quarterly annualized growth by 0.2% for each week it lasts
    • The ongoing UAW auto strike which reduces quarterly annualized growth by 0.05-0.10% for each week it lasts.

    …which will almost certainly push the economy into contraction, should be sufficient to put a sharp stop to any further surge in either the dollar or US interest rates.

    More in the GDI/GDP reports from JPM, DB and Morgan Stanley

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 21:20

  • More Politicians Are Leaving The Democratic Party
    More Politicians Are Leaving The Democratic Party

    Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    When Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson announced his switch from Democrat to Republican in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, he wrote he had “no intention of changing my approach to my job” but that American cities needed the fiscal conservatism and law enforcement that Republicans push for.

    Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson in a file photo. (Carolyn Caster/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

    And he’s not alone. This year has already seen five state lawmakers switch affiliation from Democrat to Republican. Last year, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) switched from Democrat to Independent. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has said he’s giving serious consideration to leaving the Democratic Party, and is reportedly aiming for a third party bid in 2024 for the Oval Office. In 2022, it was reported that 1 million voters had switched to the Republican Party, compared to 630,000 who became Democrats.

    While switching parties is not unique, doing so while holding a partisan elected office is much more rare. According to Ballotpedia, 173 legislators have done so while in office since 1994, mostly in favor of the Republican Party.

    Mr. Johnson’s office is not a partisan one, which he noted in his op-ed.

    “I was never a favorite of the Democratic caucus, and the feeling was mutual. By the time I was elected mayor—a nonpartisan office—in 2019, I was relieved to be free from hyperpartisanship and ready to focus on solving problems,” he wrote.

    Local Issues

    The state lawmakers’ reasons for switching are not “grandiose” statements about the nation, according to Georgia state representative Mesha Mainor, speaking for herself. In most cases, the reasons for the change in party affiliation were local, and even personal.

    A former healthcare provider, Ms. Mainor spent 20 years working with people of all backgrounds trying to find them solutions, and said she joined the state assembly expecting to do the same. But she quickly learned that her party was not open to working across the aisle, and several times insisted she vote down Republican bills, not because it was bad policy, but because Democrats wanted to send a message.

    “I think America is saying that we’re tired of hyper-partisanship,” Ms. Mainor told The Epoch Times, sharing that her many constituents texted and called after she announced in July she was switching party affiliations to show their support. They told her they didn’t care which party she belonged to, so long as she continued to represent them.

    Georgia state Rep. Mesha Mainor speaks in the House Chamber at the Georgia Capitol, in Atlanta, on March 6, 2023. Mainor announced on July 11, 2023 that she was switching from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party, saying Democrats had driven her out for refusing to follow party orthodoxy. (Alex Slitz/AP Photo)

    “I champion issues that are brought to me,” said Ms. Mainor, who was elected twice on a platform to fix whatever issues constituents brought her.

    For instance, when someone who is under investigation is killed, the state holds onto the death certificate, and families have requested Ms. Mainor’s help to obtain the death certificates so they can access the insurance money for the deceased’s children. Another big issue is school choice, because in Ms. Mainor’s district, only about 3 percent of schools are meeting math and reading proficiency.

    Ms. Mainor hadn’t changed parties because her issues changed; she did so in order to continue championing the issues she ran on.

    “The Republican Party, I would say, have a bigger tent,” she said, adding that with her new party, she is not expected to vote the party line and has room for disagreement.

    ‘Toxicity’

    The disagreement she experienced in the Democratic Party at times got hostile—when she voted against a colleague’s bill one time, fellow Democratic legislators blasted her on social media, one holding up a $1,000 check calling on someone else to run for Ms. Mainor’s seat.

    These sort of strong-arming tactics were one reason North Carolina representative Tricia Cotham switched to the Republican Party.

    Her move was heavily criticized, as it gave the Republicans a supermajority—and the power to override vetos—in the House.

    Ms. Cotham, whose mother is a prominent Democrat in the state, is also a veteran lawmaker. She served from 2007 to 2016 and left when her oldest son was about to start kindegarten. While recovering from a severe case of COVID-19, she learned her district’s seat was open, and ran after a lot of thought and prayer.

    In an interview with local media after her announcement, Ms. Cotham recounted the “toxicity” and “nastiness” of her colleagues’ behavior toward her, and how she was ostracized in caucus meetings. She criticized the Democrats’ emphasis on “shadowing” Republican committee chairs to do opposition research, rather than spending the time on creating good policies, and said the party had changed greatly since her time in office.

    Rep. Tricia Cotham, 2023. (Courtesy of the North Carolina General Assembly)

    The former educator and education committee chair said she started really “praying on the issue,” before making her decision. “I’ve not changed overnight despite the terrible ads, the vicious, vile words used against me,” she said.

    Ms. Cotham said multiple times that she had not changed as a person, but her votes on issues relating to abortion and “trans” policy changed after her party switch.

    She has frequently avoided the media on the issues and did not respond to multiple requests from The Epoch Times.

    In 2015, Ms. Cotham gave testimony against a bill that would require women to wait 72 hours before an abortion. She shared the story of her first pregnancy, an ectopic pregnancy that required an induced miscarriage that saved her life.

    In May, she supported a 12-week abortion ban, which she said she thought struck a “reasonable balance” and “middle ground” between extremes, refuting claims of hypocricy.

    In April, Ms. Cotham also voted for a bill that would ban biological males from girls’ sports, for which she received another wave of criticism from the left.

    In an interview shortly after she announced the party switch, she told the local channel that she would always support “LGB” rights, leaving out the “T” for “trans.”

    In 2016, she voted on a bathroom bill that would allow “trans” identifying students to use the bathroom they preferred instead of the one matching their sex. It was the year after Bruce Jenner “came out” as Caitlyn Jenner, garnering widespread awareness and understanding of what it meant to “transition.” The word “transgender” was only just replacing “transexual,” and the issue hadn’t yet zeroed in on children.

    Critics of Ms. Cotham have demanded she be recalled from office, and Ms. Cotham has already refunded donors who supported her campaign on request.

    ‘Nothing Has Changed’

    In Louisiana, two state legislators changed parties.

    Francis Thompson had served as a Democrat for 50 years before he switched parties in March, giving Republicans a supermajority.

    A longtime “conservative Democrat,” Mr. Thompson was known in his district for his ability to bring big spending projects to the area.

    A local outlet’s profile of him described him as a legislator who always cultivated a close relationship with the governor. It described a press conference Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards held, celebrating a defeat of the Republican effort to override his veto of their bill which would prevent male athletes from competing in women’s sports.

    Mr. Thompson had voted against the governor, yet he was present at the conference, clapping along with his colleagues—at least one of whom challenged him for attending, according to The Advocate.

    “I’m here to honor my Democratic governor,” said the then-Democrat legislator, who had been elected by his constituents 11 times in a row, making him the longest serving Democrat lawmaker in the state before he switched parties.

    Besides the sports bill, he had also voted outside party lines when he voted to repeal permit requirements to carry concealed handguns, and again to override the governor’s veto of a congressional redistricting bill.

    When he announced his party switch, Mr. Thompson said that “nothing has changed” and he will continue to vote according to his principles.

    He said the Democrat Party had increasingly embraced positions that did not “align with those values and principles that are part of my Christian life.”

    “There are values and principles that I firmly hold onto that guide my decisions. My conservative voting record over the years I have served in the Legislature speaks for itself,” he said in his press conference.

    Following the Votes?

    Weeks later, Louisiana state lawmaker Jeremy LaCombe switched parties from Democrat to Republican as well, without announcing a reason. His reelection campaign website now touts him as an “independent voice” willing to work with both sides to get things done.

    Local outlet The Advocate notes that in recent years, Louisiana has turned red; Mr. LaCombe lost badly to a Republican when he pursued a state Senate seat in 2022.

    Neither Mr. LaCombe nor Mr. Thompson responded to multiple requests for comment from The Epoch Times.

    West Virginia lawmaker Elliott Pritt switched parties in April, after winning his first term in 2022 as a Democrat.

    His district lies in the southern coalfields of the state, which has become predominantly red in recent years.

    He told Politico, “Even if I were to run again and win, I would look at another term of never getting another bill passed, never getting anything done.”

    “For the time I’m going to be there I’m not going to sit there and be a lame duck and not get anything.”

    The House has 89 Republicans and 11 Democrats, while the Senate has 31 Republicans and three Democrats, making it impossible not to work across the aisle for the minority party.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 21:00

  • Watch Live: DeSantis' Last Stand In Second GOP Primary Debate (Ex-Trump)
    Watch Live: DeSantis’ Last Stand In Second GOP Primary Debate (Ex-Trump)

    Ding, Ding, Round Two!

    But once again, there’s no real contender as former President Trump heads to Detroit, skipping the second Republican presidential nominee debate tonight at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.

    You can’t really blame him, given his position in the polls is still dominant, but one thing is for sure, tonight is make-or-break for any hopefuls…

    Everyone from debate No. 1 qualified for debate No. 2 except former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.

    Those who tuned into the first debate may have noticed some major topics and questions were missing or minimized – everything from election integrity, a huge concern for many Republicans after the 2020 election, to the fate of Jeffrey Epstein, which Tucker Carlson tackled during an interview with former President Trump that ran at the same time as the debate.

    Nathan Worcester, writing for The Epoch Times, lays out some more things to look out for at the showdown in Simi Valley.

    Trump, Trump, and More Trump

    A transcript of the first debate shows the word “Trump” was spoken more than 25 times.

    President Trump will likely remain a significant focus of the conversation on Sept. 27. As he faces multiple indictments while campaigning for his previous office, the real estate developer turned politician is still the main character in American politics and certainly in the Republican Party.

    “He has a huge lead. As the debates have gone on, his lead has only increased. While there were some standout performances in Milwaukee, nobody really made a dent in that,” Mr. Kall said.

    “They can’t just attack each other and hope to do well. They really have to take the fight to Donald Trump,” he added.

    “There’s definitely a split in the Republican Party—those who want to move into the populist direction and those who want to stay with the 2000s or even earlier type of Republicanism, like Nikki Haley or Mike Pence.

    “That’s going to be something for Republican primary voters to decide at the ballots,” Ms. Krieger said.

    Mr. Ramaswamy and Gov. DeSantis are closer to the populist camp. A strong attack on President Trump from either one would be noteworthy.

    More Foreign Policy Clashes

    During the first debate, some of the biggest arguments erupted over foreign policy.

    That’s unsurprising. In a party reshaped by President Trump and, before him, the likes of Ron Paul and Pat Buchanan, hawkishness has given ground to what some call non-interventionism and what others call isolationism.

    As the closest equivalent to President Trump in Milwaukee, Mr. Ramaswamy sparred with Ms. Haley and Mr. Christie as well as former Vice President Pence.

    Mr. Pence described Mr. Ramaswamy’s vision of ceding parts of Ukraine to Russia to sever it from Beijing as a “giveaway … to Putin.”

    Ms. Haley, who served as the United States ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, argued with Mr. Ramaswamy over Russia, China, Taiwan, and Israel.

    Count on foreign policy remaining a hot topic at the Reagan Library. After all, the president has considerable power over foreign policy, as outlined in Article II of the Constitution, and American foreign policy decisions resonate across the country and the planet.

    The ‘Laptop from Hell’

    Special counsel David Weiss’s investigation of Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, didn’t come up as part of the moderators’ questions in Milwaukee.

    Mr. Christie and Mr. DeSantis did mention his legal issues at the first debate.

    Although Hunter Biden has been under investigation for years, no charges were filed until whistleblowers with the IRS testified that multiple U.S. attorneys declined to let Mr. Weiss bring charges.

    Now, an FBI agent has come forward and confirmed their accounts during a closed-door interview with members of Congress.

    “I remember learning at some point in the investigation that Mr. Weiss would have to go through his other processes because the U.S. Attorney’s Offices had, I guess, in that sense, using that terminology, wasn’t going to partner,” the agent said, as recorded in a transcript The Epoch Times has obtained and reviewed.

    Hunter Biden is also suing former Trump aide Garrett Ziegler in connection with the laptop linked to him in the runup to the 2020 election, dubbed “the laptop from hell.”

    As Newt Gingirch writes at The New York Sun, overall debate performance is not all that matters. In this kind of wide-open environment – with seven candidates maneuvering to become the Trump alternative – candidates have two simple goals. 

    First, do not get too eager and screw up. One big mistake could lead people to write you off as unable to beat Mr. Trump or lead the country. 

    Second, find no more than three breakthrough moments in which your ideas, language, delivery, intelligence, courage, and authenticity vividly come through. Networks will specifically hunt for these moments to highlight repeatedly. And they will go viral on social media. 

    Ambassador (and former Governor) Haley came close to breaking through after the first debate. Many polls showed that people felt she was the most effective and forceful debater. Her focus on Vice President Harris worked to her advantage. 

    Ms. Haley’s range of experience in foreign policy and national security was impressive.

    Her toughness about balancing the budget and lessons she learned as a reform governor of South Carolina communicated an important authenticity. She may be the best positioned to break out.

    Mr. Ramaswamy impressed in the first debate.

    As a remarkably successful 38-year-old entrepreneur, he has a lot going for him. However, many people refuse to consider him because they don’t believe he has enough experience to be President. If he can perform well enough to overcome those concerns, he could take off and have an exciting run.

    Mr. Desantis may be facing his last chance to prove he is a contender.

    He has been an excellent governor of Florida. It has been perplexing to watch him decay under the dual assaults of the Trump team and the left-wing press. This may be his last opportunity to resurrect his candidacy and convince people — especially major donors — to give him a second look.

    Gingrich closes by suggesting that “it will be an interesting and important debate. It is worth your time to watch and think about it.”

    The two-hour event will be moderated by Fox News’ Dana Perino and Stuart Varney as well as Univision’s Ilia Calderon.

    The debate is being hosted on Fox News and Fox Business, accessible online only via login. Click the image below to link to the live Rumble feed (not embeddable)…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 20:40

  • Musk Says COVID Shot "Almost Sent Me To Hospital", Says He'd Go To Prison Before Firing Workers For Refusing Jab
    Musk Says COVID Shot “Almost Sent Me To Hospital”, Says He’d Go To Prison Before Firing Workers For Refusing Jab

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Elon Musk on Tuesday revealed that he took multiple COVID-19 vaccines so that he could travel during the period of intense pandemic restrictions and that after taking his third shot, he nearly ended up hospitalized.

    Elon Musk, founder and chief engineer of SpaceX, speaks at the 2020 Satellite Conference and Exhibition in Washington on March 9, 2020. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

    Mr. Musk made the remarks in a post on X that was part of a thread he started as a response to a warning by European Union (EU) officials that X has fallen squarely into the bloc’s censorship crosshairs for being found to be the top purveyor of so-called misinformation and disinformation.

    “Have you heard dis information?” Mr. Musk captioned his original post, in a play on words that accompanied a video compilation of COVID-19 vaccine news headlines that began with bold initial claims early in the pandemic that the vaccines are “100 percent effective” before steadily dropping lower and lower.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “The mRNA COVID-19 vaccine was only 47% effective after 5 months?” reads one of the later headlines, followed by even more negative headlines like “Sweden, Denmark Halt Moderna’s Covid Shot for Younger People” and, finally, ones highlighting vaccine-maker profitability amid calls for seemingly endless boosters.

    ‘Messed Up’

    Mr. Musk’s meme on waning vaccine efficacy drew a number of comments, including one by political journalist Ed Krassenstein, who raised objections.

    “I think efficacy changes are a result of new strains and the vaccine immunity wearing off. It’s stupid anyone ever claimed it was 100% effective. No vaccine is 100% full-proof,” he wrote.

    Mr. Musk replied by saying that he’s not against vaccines in principle, but that he opposes mandates forcing people to get the shot.

    “My concern was more the outrageous demand that people *must* take the vaccine and multiple boosters to do anything at all. That was messed up,” Mr. Musk wrote.

    He added that, until the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated President Joe Biden’s executive order imposing a vaccine-or-test mandate for large companies, his company SpaceX “and many other other companies would have been forced to fire anyone who refused to get vaccinated!”

    “We would not have done so. I would rather go to prison than fire good people who didn’t want to be jabbed,” Mr. Musk continued.

    Mr. Musk also revealed that he got COVID-19 and experienced “mild cold symptoms” but took vaccines repeatedly for travel.

    “The third shot almost sent me to hospital,” Mr. Musk said.

    “How many other people out there have symptoms that are actually from the vaccine or Covid treatment, rather than Covid itself?” he asked.

    There’s a growing body of data suggesting that COVID-19 vaccine side effects are more serious than previously claimed.

    Mr. Musk qualified his remarks by saying he’s not against vaccines as a matter of principle.

    “It’s not like I don’t believe in vaccines—I do. However, the cure cannot be potentially worse than the disease,” he said.

    “Public debate over efficacy should not be shut down,” Mr. Musk continued.

    Mr. Musk added that he believes “there is also great potential for curing many diseases using synthetic mRNA, so let’s not throw the baby out with the bath water.”

    The X chief’s post garnered a series of reactions, including a humorous one by the Joe Biden Press Release (Parody) account, which features a photo of a smiling President Joe Biden saying: “I promise you’ll be safe after the 42nd booster.”

    “Just be sure to triple mask, Elon,” the account added.

    Meanwhile, in Brussels, EU officials took Mr. Musk and X into their censorship crosshairs.

    ‘We Will Be Watching’

    A senior European Union official on Sept. 26 accused X of being the top purveyor of disinformation and issued a veiled threat, prompting Mr. Musk to push back by posting the meme highlighting waning vaccine effectiveness and sparking online debate.

    At a press conference on Tuesday, the EU’s top commissar on disinformation—European Commission (EC) Vice President Vera Jourova—singled out X as being “the platform with the largest ratio of mis- or disinformation posts.”

    Unlike competitors like Facebook and Google, Mr. Musk’s X has refused to participate in the European Union’s (EU) voluntary anti-disinformation effort called the 2022 Code of Practice on Disinformation.

    While the code is supposedly nonbinding, companies that take part can ease some of their compliance requirements under the EU’s Digital Services Act, which kicked in at the end of August and is mandatory for the biggest tech platforms with over 45 million users in the EU—including X.

    After earlier reprimanding Mr. Musk and X for lacking the appetite to self-censor and not taking the EU’s fight against “disinformation” seriously, the EU ramped up its rhetoric on Sept. 26, the day that social media companies like Facebook and Google—but not X—published reports on compliance with the bloc’s new “disinformation” code.

    “Mr. Musk knows that he is not off the hook by leaving the code of practice because now we have the Digital Services Act fully enforced,” Ms. Jourova said. “So my message for Twitter is you have to comply with the hard law and we will be watching what you are doing.”

    While X quite the voluntary code in May, it counts as a “very large online platform” under the mandatory Digital Services Act (DSA) and so is subject to stricter content rules.

    Ms. Jourova reminded Mr. Musk of the fact that the EU has enforcement tools to pressure the platform into compliance with its content laws.

    She made the remarks while providing an update on the 27-nation EU’s 2022 Code of Practice on Disinformation, which companies like Google, TikTok, and Facebook parent Meta signed up for—but which Mr. Musk’s X has snubbed.

    Some examples from the reports include Google indicating that it prevented around $33 million in advertising dollars from going to “disinformation actors” and Meta slapped over 40 million pieces of content with factchecking labels.

    The new Digital Services Act rules apply to 19 “very large” digital platforms (such as social media networks, websites, and online retailers) with at least 45 million active users in the EU.

    The 19 platforms that fall under the umbrella of the new rules are: Alibaba AliExpress, Amazon Store, Apple AppStore, Bing, Booking.com, Facebook, Instagram, Google Maps, Google Play, Google Search, Google Shopping, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Snapchat, TikTok, X, Wikipedia, YouTube, and Zalando.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 20:20

  • Mitsubishi Is Pulling Out Of China's Auto Market
    Mitsubishi Is Pulling Out Of China’s Auto Market

    We have been writing over the last few months about increased competition in China’s EV market and (most recently) about intense EU scrutiny over Chinese subsidies, which the EU claims is mucking up its electric vehicle market by driving prices lower. 

    Now, one Japanese automaker is backing out of China altogether. Mitsubishi “has started final withdrawal talks with China’s Guangzhou Automobile Group”, its joint venture partner in China, according to Nikkei. The company has been suffering from “sluggish sales”, the report says, noting that other Japanese automakers are also reassessing their viability in the Asian country. 

    GAC Mitsubishi Motors has shuttered its manufacturing operations in Hunan province indefinitely, marking the end of Mitsubishi’s sole factory in China. GAC, which holds a 50% share in the joint venture, plans to repurpose the Hunan facility for electric vehicle (EV) production while aiming to retain some level of its workforce, the report says. 

    Mitsubishi Motors and Mitsubishi Corp., owning 30% and 20% stakes respectively, will pull their investments, although GAC Mitsubishi will continue to exist as a business entity.

    Nikkei notes that in 2022, Mitsubishi’s car sales in China plummeted by 60% to 38,550 vehicles. An attempt to revive sales with the launch of the hybrid Outlander SUV last autumn failed to meet expectations. Mitsubishi now plans to reallocate resources to Southeast Asia and Oceania, areas responsible for about one-third of the company’s consolidated sales.

    Meanwhile, the electric vehicle market in China is booming, with a report from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers indicating an 80% surge in EV sales in 2022 to 5.36 million units. Mitsubishi has lagged in this segment, relying on GAC for EV supplies in China.

    Competition from Chinese auto manufacturers is also intensifying. Data from research firm MarkLines shows that Chinese brands captured 50.7% of the passenger car market in 2022, an increase of 5.2 percentage points from the previous year. Japanese companies accounted for 18.3% of the market, a decline of 2.8 percentage points.

    Nissan Motor’s president and CEO, Makoto Uchida, recently expressed concern over the challenging market conditions, citing unsustainable discounting practices and hinting at a potential reevaluation of Nissan’s joint ventures in China, according to the report. 

    Mitsubishi has had a long history in China, dating back to the 1970s when it began exporting commercial vehicles. It formed a joint venture with Soueast Motor that lasted from 2006 until 2021. GAC Mitsubishi Motors was established in 2012 and reached its zenith in 2018 with 140,000 vehicles sold.

    It isn’t just Japanese automakers that the heat is getting turned up on in China. Recall yesterday we wrote that Tesla was part and parcel with the ongoing EU investigation into Chinese subsidies. 

    EU executive vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said this week that there was “sufficient prima facie evidence” to support the probe, FT reported on Tuesday morning. We had previously written about the EU’s investigation and Beijing’s response via The Global Times. 

    In an interview this week, responding specifically to whether or not Tesla would be included in the investigation, Dombrovskis said: “Strictly speaking, it’s not limited only to Chinese brand electrical vehicles, it can be also other producers’ vehicles if they are receiving production-side subsidies.”

    He said he was “constantly pressed by his Chinese counterparts about the probe” after a five day trip to China, FT wrote.

    “The EU is now probably the largest market which is open for Chinese producers,” he commented, defending the investigation. He said that the EU was “open to competition” but that it “needs to be fair”. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 20:00

  • DC Appeals Court Refuses To Release Pro-Life Campaigner During Appeal
    DC Appeals Court Refuses To Release Pro-Life Campaigner During Appeal

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal appeals court has denied pro-life campaigner Lauren Handy’s emergency motion to be released from custody pending her appeal.

    Left-wing pro-life protester Lauren Handy, the director of activism with Progressive Anti-Abortion Uprising, protests outside the U.S. Supreme Court on June 15, 2022.(Jackson Elliott/The Epoch Times)

    Lawyers for Ms. Handy, who was jailed over a Washington abortion clinic protest, previously filed an emergency appeal seeking her release, arguing that the trial judge was wrong to rule that the disruptive political protest in which she was involved was a “crime of violence.”

    Ms. Handy’s appeal of her conviction itself remains pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which is the same court that denied the emergency motion to release her on Sept. 22.

    One of Ms. Handy’s lawyers, Stephen Crampton, senior counsel at the Thomas More Society, a public interest law firm, said, “We are disappointed but not deterred.”

    “We will fight on, and we believe we will ultimately prevail,” he said in a statement.

    Mr. Crampton explained what will happen next.

    “We were denied an emergency motion. We have filed an expedited appeal, together with two of Lauren’s other defendants.” The brief for the expedited appeal is due by Oct. 2, he noted.

    Ms. Handy, who was convicted by a jury on Aug. 29 of conspiring to obstruct access to an abortion clinic in the nation’s capital and of “conspiracy against rights,” was ordered incarcerated immediately after the conviction and pending sentencing by Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. The judge was appointed in 1997 by President Bill Clinton.

    On Aug. 31, Judge Kollar-Kotelly rejected a post-trial emergency motion to release Ms. Handy and four of her co-defendants before sentencing. Unless a court orders otherwise, Ms. Handy and her four co-defendants will remain in custody until sentencing at least, which could be months away. Each defendant faces up to 11 years in prison, three years of supervised release, and a fine of up to $350,000.

    Ms. Handy and the cohort of co-defendants in her trial were convicted of conspiracy against rights and conspiracy under the Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act (or FACE Act), which has been criticized by federal lawmakers. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) has said the Biden administration enforces the law selectively against pro-life activists.

    On Sept. 19, Mr. Roy introduced legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives to repeal the FACE Act, which he described as “an unconstitutional federal takeover of state police powers … [that] must be repealed.”

    “Free Americans should never live in fear of their government targeting them because of their beliefs. Yet, [President Joe] Biden’s Department of Justice has brazenly weaponized the FACE Act against normal, everyday Americans across the political spectrum, simply because they are pro-life,” the lawmaker said at the time.

    Critics like Mr. Roy reject the conspiracy against rights charge because there is no constitutional right to an abortion, as the Supreme Court determined in June 2022. In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the nation’s highest court reversed the 1973 Roe v. Wade precedent and returned the regulation of abortion to the states.

    The three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that denied the emergency motion to release Ms. Handy stated in its order (pdf) that the court declined to exercise its authority under federal appellate rules because the appellant “has not shown that immediate relief before resolution of her expedited appeal is warranted.”

    The court did not otherwise elaborate on its reasoning but panel member Judge Greg Katsas, whom President Donald Trump appointed in 2017, attached a brief explanation for his vote to the order.

    In ruling on the motion, the court had no occasion to consider whether the FACE Act’s “element of ‘force’ sweeps more broadly than the ‘physical force’ required for a crime of violence.”

    “That possibility arises because the common-law definition of ‘force’ encompasses even the ‘slightest offensive touching,’ whereas the crime-of-violence definition of ‘physical force’ requires ‘violent force—that is, force capable of causing physical pain or injury to another person,’” Judge Katsas wrote, citing Johnson v. United States, a 2010 Supreme Court ruling.

    “So, if FACE Act ‘force’ tracks the broader common-law standard, then section 248(a)(1) is not a crime of violence. My vote to deny interim relief rests on Handy’s failure to develop this argument, rather than on any assessment of whether it is likely to succeed.”

    The other two judges on the panel were Robert Wilkins, who was appointed in 2014 by President Barack Obama, and Justin Walker, who was appointed in 2020 by President Trump.

    Earlier this month, Mr. Crampton anticipated Judge Katsas’s statement when he told The Epoch Times that force and violence are not necessarily the same thing legally.

    “I can use force by running into the door. … But I don’t necessarily have to entail violence in that action because if nobody’s there, and I don’t run into anybody, there’s no violence that results,” he said.

    “We believe the FACE Act contemplates just that sort of distinction—not all use of force is necessarily violent. And that’s really the heart of our argument to the appeals court right now.”

    Ms. Handy is the director of activism for Progressive Anti-Abortion Uprising, which describes its mission as mobilizing “grassroots anti-abortion activists for direct action and [to] educate on the exploitative influence of the Abortion Industrial Complex through an anti-capitalist lens.”

    After being sentenced to jail time on a separate charge in July 2022, Ms. Handy said, “As a Catholic and progressive myself, I am compelled by my deeply held beliefs (religious and political) to put my body between the oppressed and the oppressor.”

    The Epoch Times has reached out to the U.S. Department of Justice, which is handling the prosecution, for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 19:40

  • Trudeau Apologizes To Zelensky & Canadian Public For NaziGate, Quietly Tells MPs Don't Speak About It
    Trudeau Apologizes To Zelensky & Canadian Public For NaziGate, Quietly Tells MPs Don’t Speak About It

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday issued formal apology to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over what’s coming to be known as the ‘NaziGate’ scandal. He indicated that this apology was sent through diplomatic channels. 

    Trudeau confirmed this in a press conference regarding the House of Commons’ honoring a veteran of Adolf Hitler’s Nazi forces as part of last week’s events centered on hosting Zelensky. “This was a mistake that has deeply embarrassed Parliament and Canada. All of us who were in this House on Friday regret deeply having stood and clapped even though we did so unaware of the context,” Trudeau told reporters.

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    “It was a horrendous violation of the memory of the millions of people who died in the Holocaust,” he continued, in the statement which also appeared to put sole blame on now resigned Speaker Anthony Rota.

    98-year old Waffen-SS Galicia Division veteran Yaroslav Hunka is now possibly being sought by Poland, and extradition proceedings are being mulled in Warsaw.

    Trudeau now says “Canada is deeply sorry” for involving Zelensky, who along with all of Canadian parliament was seen enthusiastically applauding Hunka with a standing ovation. Trudeau further called the whole event “deeply, deeply painful” to Jewish people, Poles, Roma, and the so-called “2SLGTBQIA+” “community” (yes, it’s an official Canadian govt designation, absurd as it is).

    He also sought to assert (or rather deflect) once again that this fiasco is playing into Russia’s hands, which is seeking to “politicize” it. Thus the prime minister is continuing to spin it as somehow really a story of ‘Russian disinformation’. 

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    But perhaps more interesting is what Trudeau and his staff are reportedly telling members of parliament in private. They are to stay “tight-lipped” in hopes that the scandal and international media coverage will just ‘go away’. According to Canada’s national broadcaster CBC: 

    Liberal caucus sources have told CBC News that Trudeau told MPs Wednesday they should avoid speaking to the press about Hunka’s invitation and the subsequent fallout, and that the media frenzy would die down if they stayed tight-lipped.

    Trudeau’s remarks come after Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said inviting Hunka to attend Zelenskyy’s historic address to Parliament is the “biggest single diplomatic embarrassment” in the country’s history.

    Poilievre is blaming Trudeau for the mishap, despite outgoing Speaker Anthony Rota’s assertion that he alone was responsible for inviting Hunka.

    But as GrayZone journalist Max Blumenthal points out, this may actually be the tip of the iceberg for Canada’s NaziGate…

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    Below is Blumenthal’s full backgrounder on the disturbing associations and past activism of Trudeau’s Deputy Prime Minister & Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland [emphasis by ZH]…

    * * *

    After serving as one of Hitler’s top Ukrainian propagandists in occupied Poland, Michael Chomiak joined thousands of Nazi collaborators on the ratline to Canada during the 1950s. Following Chomiak’s death in 1984, his granddaughter, Chrystia Freeland, followed in his footsteps as a reporter for various Ukrainian nationalist publications.

    Freeland was an early contributor to the Encyclopedia of Ukraine, which was edited by her grandfather’s former boss in Poland, the Nazi collaborator and ethnic cleansing advocate Volodymyr Kubijovyč. Next, she took a staff position at the Edmonton-based Ukrainian News, where Chomiak had served as editor.

    A 1988 edition of Ukrainian News featured an article co-authored by Freeland, followed by an ad for a book called “Fighting for Freedom” which glorified the Ukrainian Waffen-SS Galician division. During Freeland’s time as an exchange student in Lviv, Ukraine, she laid the foundations for journalistic success. From behind cover as a Russian literature major at Harvard University, Freeland collaborated with local regime change activists while feeding anti-Soviet narratives to international media bigwigs.

    “Countless ‘tendentious’ news stories about life in the Soviet Union, especially for its non-Russian citizens, had her fingerprints as Ms. Freeland set about making a name for herself in journalistic circles with an eye to her future career prospects,” the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) reported.

    Citing KGB files, the CBC described Freeland as a de facto intelligence agent: “The student causing so many headaches clearly loathed the Soviet Union, but she knew its laws inside and out – and how to use them to her advantage. She skillfully hid her actions, avoided surveillance (and shared that knowledge with her Ukrainian contacts) and expertly trafficked in ‘misinformation.’”

    In 1989, Soviet security agents rescinded Freeland’s visa when they caught her smuggling “a veritable how-to guide for running an election” into the country for Ukrainain nationalist candidates. She quickly transitioned back to journalism, landing gigs in post-Soviet Moscow for the Financial Times and Economist, and eventually rising to global editor-at-large of Reuters – the UK-based media giant which today functions as a cutout for British intelligence operations against Russia.

    When Freeland won a seat as a Liberal member of Canada’s parliament in 2013, she established her most powerful platform yet to agitate for regime change in Russia. Milking her journalistic connections, she published op-eds in top legacy papers like the New York Times urging militant support from Western capitals for Ukraine’s so-called “Revolution of Dignity,” which saw the violent removal of a democratically elected president and his replacement with a nationalist, pro-NATO government in 2014.

    Weeks after she was appointed in January 2017 as Foreign Minister – a post she predictably exploited to thunder for sanctions on Russia and arms shipments to Ukraine – her grandfather’s role as a Nazi propagandist in occupied Poland became the subject of a raft of reports in the alternative press.

    The Trudeau government responded to the factual reports by accusing Russia of waging a campaign of cyber-warfare. “The situation is obviously one where we need to be alert. And that is why the Prime Minister has, among other things, encouraged a complete re-examination of our cyber security systems,” Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale declared.

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    Yet few, if any, of the outlets responsible for excavating Chomiak’s history had any connection to Russia’s government. Among the first to expose his collaborationism was Consortium News, an independent, US-based media organization. For her part, Freeland deployed a spokesperson to lie to the public, flatly denying that “the minister’s grandfather was a Nazi collaborator.”

    When Canadian media quoted several Russian diplomats about the allegations, Freeland promptly ordered their deportation, accusing them of exploiting their diplomatic status “to interfere in our democracy.” By this time, however, her family secrets had tumbled out of the attic and onto the pages of mainstream Canadian media.

    On March 7, 2017, the Globe and Mail reported on a 1996 article in the Journal of Ukrainian Studies confirming that Freeland’s grandfather had indeed been a Nazi propagandist, and that his writing helped fuel the Jewish genocide. The article was authored by Freeland’s uncle, John-Paul Himka, who thanked his niece in its preface for helping him with “problems and clarifications.”

    “Freeland knew for more than two decades that her maternal Ukrainian grandfather was the chief editor of a Nazi newspaper in occupied Poland that vilified Jews during the Second World War,” the Globe and Mail noted. After being caught on camera this September clapping with unrestrained zeal alongside hundreds of peers for a Ukrainian veteran of Hitler’s SS death squads, Freeland once again invoked her authority to scrub the incident from the record.

    Three days after the embarrassing scene, Freeland was back on the floor of parliament, nodding in approval as Liberal House leader Karina Gould introduced a resolution to strike “from the appendix of the House of Commons debates” and from “any House multimedia recording” the recognition made by Speaker Anthony Rota of Yaroslav Hunka.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 19:20

  • What Happens To Social Security Payments If The Government Shuts Down?
    What Happens To Social Security Payments If The Government Shuts Down?

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The looming government shutdown has some Americans worried about what would happen to their Social Security payments if the end-of-the-month deadline passes with no resolution to the gridlock in Washington and parts of the federal government start to grind to a halt.

    A Social Security card sits alongside checks from the U.S. Treasury in Washington on Oct. 14, 2021. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    It appears increasingly likely that Congress will fail to pass the 12 appropriations bills that fund various federal government agencies by the Sept. 30 deadline.

    Failure to pass the bills would mean many government operations are halted and hundreds of thousands of federal employees are furloughed—including those at the Social Security Administration (SSA), which administers the Social Security system.

    But while some Social Security operations might be affected by a shutdown, legal experts say Social Security recipients need not worry about one thing—their money.

    “As a Metairie disability lawyer, every time a government shutdown is in the news, I get calls asking ‘Is Social Security affected by a government shutdown?'” Louisiana-based attorney Loyd J. Burgeois said in a note on his website.

    Mr. Burgeois said that staffing would be limited at SSA offices as many employees would be furloughed.

    Some operations might be affected by a government shutdown—such as halts to processing of new Social Security claims, as happened during the 2013 shutdown.

    “During the Clinton-era shutdown, new Social Security claims were not being processed because the agency furloughed 61,415 employees,” Mr. Burgeois said. “As the shutdown wore on, the agency adjusted its plan and recalled workers to start processing new claims.”

    However, while some SSA operations would be impacted, Mr. Burgeois said Social Security checks will continue to be sent out.

    “Social Security benefits are considered mandatory spending and are paid from the program’s trust fund, and therefore, the agency has the funds to continue paying benefits,” he said.

    A law passed by Congress in 1996 provides special protections for Social Security benefits and such benefits are considered mandatory spending—and aren’t affected by a government shutdown.

    During the last two shutdowns, the SSA continued mailing checks throughout the shutdown.

    “When the government shut down in 1995 and again in 2013, all social security payments continued to be sent out in time. This included social security disability,” the team at Gray, Sowle, Iacco, Richards, a Michigan-based law office, wrote in a blog post.

    They expect that, “just like the previous government shutdowns that social security disability payments will continue.”

    The team at Gray, Sowle, Iacco, Richards said that they also expect that hearing officers would most likely continue to hold Social Security disability and SSI hearings in the event of a shutdown.

    While new hearings were not scheduled during the 2013 shutdown, the Office of Disability Adjudication and Review (ODAR) still held previously scheduled hearings, but staffing was limited.

    Another federal agency that many Americans may be less enthused about continuing its operations in the event of a government shutdown is the IRS, which will likely keep running.

    Americans Worry Social Security Will Run Dry

    With the issue of Social Security benefits on the minds of retirees ahead of the looming government shutdown, a recent survey showed that the vast majority of Americans aged 50 and over are worried that Social Security will completely run out of money within their lifetime.

    Ten years ago, 66 percent of U.S. adults above the age of 50 worried that Social Security would run dry within their lifetime, according to the Nationwide Retirement Institute, which has been polling Americans annually about their perceptions of and concerns about the Social Security system.

    Today, that figure is significantly higher, with a whopping 75 percent saying they’re concerned that Social Security will run out of funds within their lifetime, according to the latest 2023 edition of the survey (pdf).

    The increased worry about the state of the Social Security fund is eclipsed by the growth in the share of adults aged 50 and above who say they have no source of retirement income aside from Social Security.

    Just over one in five (21 percent) said all they have to count on for retirement is Social Security, up sharply from 13 percent in 2014.

    Ten years ago, 48 percent of Americans had a pension in addition to Social Security. In 2023, that number has dwindled to just 31 percent.

    Social Security Fund In Danger

    Social Security is facing future challenges due to various factors such as inflation and lower-than-expected tax revenue.

    A recent projection by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates that the Social Security trust fund, which consists of two smaller funds—the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund and the Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund will be insolvent in 2033.

    “Upon insolvency, the law mandates that the OASI trust fund can only spend in amounts equal to incoming trust fund revenue, which means that all 70 million retirees, dependents, and survivors—regardless of age, income, or need—will see their benefits cut by 23 percent,” the analysis states.

    This means that, in 2033, annual benefits for the average newly retired dual-income couple would be cut by over $17,000.

    “For a typical dual-income couple retiring in 2033, we estimate this would represent an immediate $17,400 cut in current dollar annual benefits and an immediate $13,100 cut for a typical single-income couple,” the analysis states.

    The CRFB analysis also says that any 2024 presidential candidate who promises not to touch Social Security is “implicitly endorsing a 23 percent across-the-board benefit cut” for some 70 million retirees when the fund runs out of money within 10 years.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 19:00

  • CIA Building Own ChatGPT-style AI Bot In Shadow Of China's Advances
    CIA Building Own ChatGPT-style AI Bot In Shadow Of China’s Advances

    The US Central Intelligence Agency’s Open-Source Enterprise division will soon roll out with a ChatGPT-like large language model (LLM), which is to serve as a tool for federal and intelligence agencies to more easily and quickly access intel and information.

    Director of the CIA’s Open-Source Enterprise division, Randy Nixon, explained that source information can be sifted and returned to individual intel analysts faster than ever before. “We’ve gone from newspapers and radio, to newspapers and television, to newspapers and cable television, to basic internet, to big data, and it just keeps going,” Nixon told Bloomberg.

    “We have to find the needles in the needle field,” he added. In addition to literally hundreds of thousands or millions of classified files, analysts often rely on gathering open-source information for their assessments as well. For example this could include culling public social media apps like Facebook or X.

    “Then you can take it to the next level and start chatting and asking questions of the machines to give you answers, also sourced,” Nixon continued. “Our collection can just continue to grow and grow with no limitations other than how much things cost.”

    He explained further that the AI platform will be available and used by Washington’s 18 different intelligence branches, including federal law enforcement, such as the FBI. It’s also expected that the US military will have access, though it remains that security protocols and preventing leaks will be a big question, given the vast amounts of classified materials which will be at the tool’s disposal.

    There’s also the question of privacy, especially following the Edward Snowden revelations of a decade ago showing that the NSA had in prior years regularly swept up the data of innocent American citizens, violating their Fourth Amendment protections.

    According to a prior Bloomberg report which questioned the NSA over the impact on privacy:

    “The intelligence community needs to find a way to take benefit of these large models without violating privacy,” Gilbert Herrera, director of research at the National Security Agency, said in an interview. “If we want to realize the full power of artificial intelligence for other applications, then we’re probably going to have to rely on a partnership with industry.”

    “It all has to be done in a manner that respects civil liberties and privacy,” Herrera claimed in that prior interview. “It’s a tough problem,” she added, further admitting that “The issue of the intelligence community’s use of publicly trained information is an issue we’re going to have to grapple with because otherwise there would be capabilities of AI that we would not be able to use.”

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    But we highly doubt the US government’s top intelligence officials will be overly concerned with “limiting” AI’s power due to the Bill of Rights and concerns over individual privacy.

    Another interesting aspect to the CIA working on its own version of ChatGPT is the question of competition with China’s significant advances in AI. The new Bloomberg report highlights the mounting pressure US intelligence faces in the wake of more advanced Chinese capabilities. Beijing is looking to become the global leader in the AI field by 2030, and is already considered by many to be a world leader in the technology:

    In an ominous glimpse into the nation’s use of the programs, in 2021 China developed a ‘prosecutor’ that could identify and press charges with a reported 97 percent accuracy. 

    In contrast, America’s law enforcement sphere has also come under fire for struggling to utilize the power of AI in investigations, but Nixon said the new program will aid in condensing the unprecedented levels of information floating through the web.

    But it remains that in the West there is a much more robust legal concept of individual rights, free expression, and autonomy – compared to communist China. On this front, concerning a CIA-built AI chatbot, what could possibly go wrong?

    After all, the American public doesn’t want to find itself living in a society modeled on “Minority Report” merely for the sake of ‘keeping up’ technologically with rival superpowers (however, in some ways we are already there).

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 18:40

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Sep 27

Today’s News 27th September 2023

  • German FM Admits Some Of Berlin's Weapons To Ukraine Are Outdated, "Not Really Functioning"
    German FM Admits Some Of Berlin’s Weapons To Ukraine Are Outdated, “Not Really Functioning”

    At a moment some key European allies, Poland chief among them, have shown signs they could scale back defense aid to Ukraine (Poland chief among them, which recently declared it’s done), Germany’s Foreign Minister has admitted that some “advanced” Germany systems supplied to Kiev are faulty. 

    Annalena Baerbock admitted in a fresh interview with CNN that some Leopard 1 tanks sent to Ukraine are outdated and “not really functioning”. She said this when pressed over why Berlin has thus far rejected approval for supplying Taurus long-range missiles. 

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    “We have to be clear on every detail, how does it work, who can actually operate them (the missiles),” Baerbock told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. “Yes, it takes some time. I totally understand there is not enough time in Ukraine, but when we deliver it, it has to work.”

    Her logic was that given past German systems have not been effective and even proved faulty, there should be no rush to provide even more, especially if they are sophisticated missile systems.

    In many cases Ukrainian operators have been rushed through hasty training programs, and problems become more acute when not enough time is spent. And it’s not just operators that have to be caught up to speed, but the necessary assisting and support crews. 

    She said in the interview that all this can be explained by Europe not having been confronted “with a brutal war lately.”

    It must be recalled that the German government was among the first to declare that it wouldn’t “stand in the way” in Eastern European countries like Poland if they wanted to transfer German-produced tanks to the Russia-Ukraine war zone. 

    Via Reuters

    Since then, Russian media has aired multiple examples of Leopard tanks being destroyed and burning while declaring a ‘victory’ over West-supplied main battle tanks. 

    Baerbock’s surprise admission of sending faulty and old tanks to Kiev comes the same week that the Zelensky government announced the arrival of M1 Abrams tanks from the US. In this case too, training provided by US instructors out of Germany was likely hasty – given it takes sometimes years for crews to be combat ready. 

    Recently, Baerbock was humiliated in a press conference while standing alongside a frustrated and irate Ukrainian foreign minister, who said this….

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 02:45

  • Is World War III About To Start? Part I: Drift Toward War
    Is World War III About To Start? Part I: Drift Toward War

    Authored by Richard Cook via ScheerPost.com,

    It is likely that billions of people around the world view the conflict in Ukraine as a proxy war being waged by the U.S. against Russia. US President Joe Biden has pledged to aid Ukraine’s pursuit of victory “for as long as it takes,” without defining what the end state might be. Russian President Vladimir Putin has interpreted U.S. intentions to mean a fight “to the last Ukrainian.” 

    Anyone with a discernible pulse is aware of the danger that the conflict could escalate into a conflagration large and destructive enough to morph into World War III. The threshold would likely be crossed once nuclear weapons were unleashed. The military doctrines of all nuclear powers stipulate that such an attack would justify an in-kind response, though without always ruling out the same for lesser provocations of a potentially existential nature. 

    President Biden has said “the world faces the biggest risk of nuclear Armageddon since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.” The context of Biden’s statement came a month earlier on September 21, 2022, when Putin warned the West he was not bluffing when he said he would be ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia against what he said was “nuclear blackmail.” Earlier, in an April 21, 2021, speech, Putin said:

    We really do not want to burn bridges. But if someone mistakes our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intends to burn or even blow up these bridges, they must know that Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, swift, and tough. Those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time. 

    Another to speak of nuclear war has been former Russian president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy head of the Russian Security Council and one of Putin’s top advisers. Commenting on Ukraine’s highly touted but now failed 2023 “spring offensive,” Medvedev said in July 2023 that if Ukraine succeeded in taking Russian sovereign territory—including Crimea plus the four Donbass oblasts (regions) annexed by Russia last year—Russia “would have to use nuclear weapons by virtue of the Russian Presidential Decree.” This decree stated that any assault on Russian territory justified a nuclear response.

    On Hiroshima Day, August 6, 2023, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said, “The drums of nuclear war are beating once again. Mistrust and division are on the rise. The nuclear shadow that loomed over the Cold War has re-emerged.” One who has predicted world war has been UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace. On May 19, 2023, he warned “that the UK could enter a direct conflict with Russian and China in the next seven years and has called for an increase in military spending to counter the potential threat.” Speaking to London’s Financial Times, Wallace said “a conflict is coming with a range of adversaries around the world.”

    More recently, independent commentator Tucker Carlson, who has said the U.S. is intentionally seeking war with Russia, remarked in a September 2023 interview on The Adam Corolla Show that the Biden administration would attempt to stay in power by starting a “hot war” with Russia before the 2024 election. Carlson argued that the U.S. was “already at war” with Russia in Ukraine. He added, “I don’t think we’ll win it.” 

    Meanwhile, Russia’s new generation of Sarmat ballistic missiles, capable of carrying ten or more nuclear warheads, have been deployed for combat duty.

    Of course we now must wait and see if recent action by House Republicans to launch an impeachment inquiry against Biden, along with his worsening senility, put enough of a crimp in his style to force a postponement of any irretrievable decisions. 

    But feeding into Carlson’s fears are statements by U.S. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland in a September video clip supporting Ukrainian strikes against Russian territory. Nuland said that one “axis” of U.S. strategy is to “put some of Russia’s most precious assets at risk.” 

    This comes as the U.S. is planning to send long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine, with Germany promising Jupiter missiles, and as the UK plans to send RAF fighters to the Black Sea. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said in June 2023 that use of Western-supplied weapons to launch such attacks” would mean the full involvement of the United States and the United Kingdom in the conflict.” 

    So was Biden correct? Is nuclear Armageddon looming? Or is “brinkmanship” today merely “bluffmanship?”

    75 YEARS OF CONFLICT

    Of course, potential nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, especially in its previous iteration as the Soviet Union, is nothing new. World War II was scarcely over before figures like Winston Churchill and U.S. banker Bernard Baruch began raising alarms about the existence of an “Iron Curtain” across Europe and the start of a “Cold War.” 

    But even before World War II began, the Roosevelt administration accepted the recommendation of studies by the Council of Foreign Relations, financed by the Rockefeller Foundation, that the U.S. should aim for  postwar global military domination. Note that there was nothing in the U.S. Constitution that even remotely supports such a goal. The closest the U.S. might have come was the myth of “Manifest Destiny” that once supplied the ideology for coast-to-coast expansion; i.e., “from sea to shining sea.”

    At the end of World War II, with the British Empire crumbling and Europe in ruins, there were two clear victors: the U.S. and the Soviet Union. The accepted logic of U.S. planners now dictated that the latter must go. 

    Stalin is said to have asked to join the newly-formed NATO but was rebuffed. He responded by forming the Warsaw Pact. The post-war standoff had begun and, 75 years later, has not ended. With the Soviets being accused of fomenting leftist revolutions around the world, the U.S. military has been laying plans for a U.S.-Russian nuclear exchange ever since. While the military sought an advantage favorable to a nuclear first strike, the everyday working objective toward the Soviets was “containment.” Meanwhile, the U.S. began its own long history of generating coups friendly to its interests with the CIA’s overthrow of governments in Iran in 1953 and Guatemala in 1954. 

    In 1956, Eisenhower’s Secretary of State John Foster Dulles proclaimed a U.S. policy of “brinkmanship.” Speaking of the potential for nuclear war in a Life magazine interview, he said, “If you are scared to go to the brink, you are lost.”  In 1961, President John F. Kennedy seemed to have stared down Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev over the planned installation of nuclear weapons in Cuba. Unknown publicly, JFK had already pulled U.S. nukes out of Turkey.  

    Nor are proxy wars anything new. They began with the Korean War. Of course, there were U.S. “boots on the ground,” but North and South Korea also fought against each other with Russia/China and the U.S./UN having the backs of each respectively. The Vietnam War was fought with U.S. troops and weapons aiding the South Vietnamese against the Russian-backed Hanoi regime and its ally, South Vietnam’s Viet Cong. The Korean conflict became a stalemate; Vietnam, a debacle. 

    But change was in the wind. JFK moved to revolutionize the discourse with his now-famous proposal for world peace delivered at American University on June 10, 1963. In the Soviet Union, Khrushchev denounced Stalin and proposed a new era of “Peaceful Coexistence” with the West. In the early 1970s, President Richard M. Nixon and his national security advisor Henry Kissinger sought détente with the Soviets along with their epochal opening to China. 

    Rapprochement with the Soviets was sabotaged by the Reagan military build-up in the 1980s and the lies of Soviet supremacy promulgated by the Committee on the Present Danger. The U.S. was also creating the Mujahedeen to attack the Soviet military presence in Afghanistan. This was part of Reagan’s engagement in his own proxy wars—called the “Reagan Doctrine”—against leftist regimes in Asia, Africa, and Central America, with U.S.-supported “death squads” in El Salvador and elsewhere. 

    It was under Reagan that the faction known as the “Neocons” began their infiltration of the national security apparatus. These included “Trotskyite” intellectuals from New York like Irving Kristol; alumni of Democratic Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson’s staff like Paul Wolfowitz and Richard Perle; “Team B” CIA analysts empowered by short-term Director George H.W. Bush, leading to the future prominence of Bob Gates; icons of the military-industrial complex like “Father of the H-Bomb” Edward Teller; Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, who’d been joined at the hip to each other and to President Gerald Ford; Reagan’s Director of Central Intelligence William Casey; and many future dark personages like John Bolton. 

    It was Casey who famously said at one of Reagan’s early staff meetings, “We will know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American people believes is false.” This statement defined perfectly the future program of what we call today the “Deep State” and its mass media megaphone, especially outlets like The New York Times, the Washington Post, and CNN. 

    One of the first major Neocon projects—Iran-Contra—devolved into scandal, with Reagan and Vice-President Bush both claiming ignorance under the “plausible deniability” fiction. Another was Reagan’s pet project—the Strategic Defense Initiative—lampooned as “Star Wars.” 

    Purporting to be offended by the U.S.-Soviet nuclear standoff, whereby peace was assured only by the logic of “Mutually-Assured Destruction,” Reagan proposed an armada of “defensive” weapons in space. The military-industrial complex seized on Star Wars as a cornucopia of lucrative research and development projects that ended when space shuttle Challenger blew up. The space shuttle was being converted to a testing platform for space weaponry, as I saw personally at NASA when I worked there in 1985-1986. One of the war planners’ bright ideas was to send the president to orbit in the space shuttle, from which he could safely direct military operations. 

    But the Star Wars project, which was not revived until the 21st century, nevertheless witnessed vast planning of space battle stations, nifty theoretical space weaponry like the X-ray laser and devices later called “rods from God,” and cost-benefit studies that included calculations of how many tens of millions of Americans could die in a space-based nuclear war against the Soviets while still allowing the U.S. to claim victory. 

    Meanwhile, it was after the horrendous exposures of CIA assassinations, media subversion, poisoning of subjects with LSD, and other misdeeds arising from the Church Committee hearings in 1975, that the CIA began to retreat into the shadows. Under Reagan came authorization of the National Endowment on Democracy, whose signature mission became “color revolutions” and later the “Arab Spring.” Amid the horrors, though, Reagan was yet able to sign the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, rolling back the number of nuclear weapons for the first time. 

    But things took a decided turn for the worse under President George H.W. Bush with the 1992 Wolfowitz Doctrine that reformulated the old CFR plans for global U.S. military dominance and contained the ominous warning that Russia was the only nation on earth with the power to destroy the U.S. By now, the U.S. had begun its next phase of global conquest with Bush’s war against Iraq—Desert Storm. The goal was total military colonization of the Middle East, with the “Greater Israel” project so near and dear to the hearts of the Neocons an obvious beneficiary. The Iran-Iraq War of 1980-6, with the U.S. arming both sides, doubtless had the same underlying purposes. 

    The oddity in the designation of Russia as the worst of enemies named in the Wolfowitz Doctrine was that a year earlier, the Soviet Union had collapsed, ceasing to exist in 1991, with U.S. hawks declaring that the Cold War was over and that the U.S. had won. Their corollary was that the Reagan military build-up had forced the Soviet economy into receivership because they couldn’t keep up with U.S. military spending. 

    But in a December 17, 2022, interview on the online news platform, The Duran, Jack F. Matlock, former U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union, said that “the idea that we spent them to defeat was absolutely wrong.” He said the U.S. “did not win the Cold War.” He said the Soviet Union broke up because the Cold War was over by 1989 and that it was local nationalism that tore it apart. He added that the end of the Cold War was “negotiated as equals.”

    But here was the rub: the Wolfowitz Doctrine proved that it wasn’t “communism” that the U.S. wanted to defeat, as Russia was no longer a communist state. Matlock said that Gorbachev had abandoned communism in his UN speech of December 7, 1988. Nor was the U.S. really pushing for “democracy.” Overnight Russia had become more democratic than many of the authoritarian regimes the U.S. had been supporting around the world for decades, such as those in Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Rather it was Russia as a geopolitical enemy that the U.S. was targeting; meaning, in Russia’s eyes, its very existence as a territory, a state, and a civilization.

    In order to promote peace with the West, Gorbachev had agreed to the reunification of East and West Germany as one nation and part of NATO, given U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s agreement that NATO would not advance “one inch eastward” from the German border. This pledge was violated by the next three presidents—Clinton, Bush II, and Obama. Veteran U.S. statesman George Kennan opposed the expansion of NATO, while Ambassador Matlock called it “a great tragedy.”

    Meanwhile, 9/11, the Neocons’ “new Pearl Harbor,” produced the “War on Terror,” the Patriot Act, the Department of Homeland Security, the military doctrine of Full-Spectrum Dominance, and the assaults on Afghanistan, Iraq, and later Libya. The ideological focal point was demonization of all things Islam. The rationale? “They hate our freedoms.”

    But the 9/11 Truth Movement began to poke holes in the official conspiracy theory of terrorists with box cutters that over time became gaping abysses. The anti-Islam narrative began to wear thin when stacked up against U.S. military overkill, the CIA’s torture chambers, the useless expenditure of trillions of dollars shooting at goat herders, the absence of any evidence of WMDs in Iraq or co-conspirators anywhere, and Israel’s endless strife with the Palestinians. 

    Now Russia itself had begun to make a stand. At the 2007 Munich Security Conference, Putin challenged the attempt by the U.S. to achieve hegemony through creation of a “unipolar” world “in which there is one master, one sovereign.” He said, “at the end of the day this is pernicious.” 

    There was never any indication that Putin, in making his Munich declaration or afterwards, had any intention of restoring the Soviet “empire.” But he was absolutely determined to preserve Russia’s sovereignty and security despite the declared intention of factions in the West to break up Russia’s territory and gain control of its resources. He had also lamented the fact that with the collapse of the Soviet Union, 25 million ethnic Russians had been left out of what was now a unified and strengthening nation-state, blending a multiplicity of races, languages, and religions.  

    The “War on Terror” ended up being a tragic failure. So now the Western mainstream media jumped at their next big chance by depicting Putin as the bad guy du jour, even more “authoritarian,” and “evil” than either Saddam Hussein or Osama bin Laden. But they would have done the same had Donald Duck been president of Russia—a nasty, duck-billed, feathered tyrant who was attacking democracy, freedom, human rights, and, yes, the “New American Century” the Neocons had dreamt up. 

    UKRAINE — THE CROSSROADS

    Now the U.S., with the Neocons firmly entrenched in the State Department and elsewhere, surrounded Russia with military bases and attacked its perimeter with color revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, following on the dismemberment of Yugoslavia in the late 1990s and early 2000s. President Barack Obama then situated the Aegis Missile Defense System in Poland and Romania with the potential to activate missiles that could reach Moscow with nuclear warheads in six minutes. Talk was current of a possible “decapitation” strike against the Russian leadership.

    Finally, in 2014, with “cookies” Victoria Nuland and Vice President Joe “Burisma” Biden in charge, the U.S. fomented a coup in Ukraine with the aid of paid snipers to drive out a president friendly toward Russia and his replacement with a NeoNazi junta that put Ukraine on a war footing. In response, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula, where Sevastopol is the home of its Black Sea fleet, with 85 percent popular approval, while the eastern Ukrainian Donbass provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk, ethnically-Russian, declared independence. 

    Finally, after eight years of Ukrainian provocations, the death from Ukrainian shelling of more than 10,000 Donbass civilians, and the treachery of Germany and France in failing to uphold the Minsk agreements they had guaranteed, Russia entered Ukraine with its military forces in February 2022. The conflict was on, a conflict that Russia is winning. U.S.-led sanctions against Russia failed to bring down its economy or force regime change against Putin. But each Ukrainian setback on the battlefield has been followed by more weapons and money supplied to the Volodymyr Zelensky regime by the U.S., UK, Germany, France, and other NATO members. 

    But who was calling the shots? In March 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators reached agreement on a tentative settlement at meetings in Istanbul. UK prime minister Boris Johnson then rushed to Kiev to induce Zelensky to tear up the agreement and continue the war. Western escalation has included billions of dollars worth of heavy tanks and other weapons to Ukraine, along with cluster munitions and depleted uranium projectiles. There have been drone attacks on Russia itself and on Crimea. But the Ukrainian counteroffensive has collapsed, with speculation increasing of a major Russian counterattack, possibly even cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea. 

    We have now come full circle. Warnings from Washington continue that Putin had better not go nuclear, which can be read as inviting him to do so. This is obviously a new phase of brinkmanship that could give the U.S. a pretext for themselves moving to nuclear war. Meanwhile, the U.S. understands that it could in no way challenge Russia in a conventional war even with the entire NATO alliance being activated. Even then, divisiveness within NATO and the absence of sufficient military force anywhere in Europe make this impossible at present. Veteran military analyst Scott Ritter writes in Sputnik News on September 21, 2023, that even were the U.S. to activate its entire military force stationed in Europe against Russia, it would be defeated within one to two weeks of intensive combat. The only alternative would then be to activate a gigantic airlift of additional forces into Europe with U.S. cargo planes sitting ducks for destruction en route. Impossible. 

    There are now signs that the U.S. may be pressuring Ukraine to agree to a cease-fire, with a “freeze” along the lines of the decades-old Korean settlement. But all this would do would be to “kick the can down the road”—possibly until after the 2024 U.S. presidential election, likely to be preceded by elections in Ukraine in March. There are no signs that the U.S. is ready to concede a Russian victory involving the redrawing of the European security apparatus with Russia a respected party. The Ukrainian government speaks of a “long-term” conflict lasting decades. So there is no way to aver that the war in Ukraine is ending or to speculate about the next phase. 

    So, is a nuclear World War III a possibility? 

    Next: Part II Are the Military-Industrial Complex and Deep State Driving Us to War? 

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/27/2023 – 02:00

  • A Kennedy Libertarian Party Run Could Tilt Election: Officials
    A Kennedy Libertarian Party Run Could Tilt Election: Officials

    Authored by Matthew Lysiak via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy’s declaration that he may be open to running as a third-party candidate has the potential to completely shift the political landscape ahead of the 2024 election, according to a party official.

    “If he made the decision and did the work that needs to be done within the party, I could see him having a massive impact,” Angela McArdle, the chair of the Libertarian Party, told The Epoch Times.

    Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to a crowd of more than 300 at the premiere of his documentary, “Midnight at the Border,” detailing his trip to the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona, in Beverly Hills, Calif., on Aug. 3, 2023. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    Mr. Kennedy, currently running second behind President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary, has flirted with a potential Libertarian Party candidacy. In July, Mr. Kennedy met privately with Ms. McArdle, at a conference they were both attending, where he notably expressed his admiration.

    “He told me he wants to run as a Democrat but said that he is very libertarian in a lot of ways,” said Ms. McArdle. “We are definitely on friendly terms.”

    In a June interview with the libertarian magazine Reason, Mr. Kennedy acknowledged his ideological leanings, saying, “I’ve always been aligned with libertarians on most issues.”

    Mr. Kennedy had already garnered the support of some of the party faithful, many who were won over by his populist messaging and who are currently volunteering in his campaign, according to Ms. McArdle.

    “Some of the things he has done over the last several years are admirable,” she added.

    “We love his anti-war position, how he is a strong advocate of free speech, and that his track record on medical freedom is not contrived. And as a Kennedy, he placed himself in a very vulnerable position speaking out about forced vaccination. As libertarians we appreciate his courage and see ourselves as aligned on a lot of issues.”

    However, although there was much in common, there remained significant differences in policy positions. Ms. McArdle cited his stance on the Environmental Protection Agency and certain regulations, which, in some instances, he is looking to expand.

    “We don’t want to see policies that would hurt small businesses and entrepreneurs,” she said. “I talked with him about our concerns as libertarians and he was open to hearing us out, which was important.”

    In recent months Mr. Kennedy has appeared increasingly frustrated by what he perceives as an unlevel playing field within the Democratic Party. Asked by a voter at a town hall earlier this month in North Charleston, South Carolina, whether he’d launch an independent bid for the White House he replied that he is open to the possibility.

    “They’re trying to make sure that I can’t participate at all in the political process, and so I’m going to keep all my options open,” Mr. Kennedy said.

    In a general election, Democrats worry that a third-party run by Mr. Kennedy could draw votes away from President Biden and help elect former President Donald Trump.

    A poll released last week found that one-third of Democrats would vote for Mr. Kennedy if he were to run as an independent.

    The Libertarian Party is currently the third-largest political party in the United States and is based on freedom and the belief “that respect for individual rights is the essential precondition for a free and prosperous world,” according to the party platform. In the 2020 Presidential Election, the party’s candidate, Jo Jorgensen, received 1.2 percent of the popular vote. However, in the 2016 presidential election, candidate Gary Johnson secured over three percent of the popular vote.

    The slightest uptick in votes cast for a third-party candidate could prove to be a determining factor in the 2024 election where many swing states were decided by razor-thin margins. In Wisconsin, the official tally put President Biden at less than 21,000 votes ahead while in Georgia the margin was even tighter, with President Biden having been declared to have won the state’s sixteen electoral votes by under 12,000 votes.

    Most polls currently have the 2024 election as another likely toss-up.

    Mr. Kennedy would have to make a final decision on whether he wants to join the Libertarian Party by early next year at latest. The Libertarian Party will select its presidential nominee until May 26 at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention in Washington, D.C.

    However, if Mr. Kennedy does enter the race on the Libertarian ticket, he should expect to have to earn the nomination, according to Ms. McArdle.

    “The presidential nomination for the libertarian party isn’t going to be handed to anyone,” said Ms. McArdle. “The candidate is going to have to earn the votes and that will take a lot of work. It is really going to depend on what he wants and how serious he is about it.”

    “He is a Democrat right now, but we all know how quickly things can change in today’s political climate.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 23:45

  • Where Contraceptive Needs Are Not Met
    Where Contraceptive Needs Are Not Met

    September 26 marks World Contraception Day.

    Africa has the highest unmet need for contraception in the world, defined as the share of sexually active, fertile women who do not have access to contraception but do not want a child at the moment or wish they could have delayed or avoided their most recent pregnancy. 

    Infographic: Where Contraceptive Needs Are Not Met | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, according to a study published in The Lancet, this applies to upwards of 20 percent of sexually active, fertile women in many countries in Western, Eastern and Central Africa, but also in Haiti, Bosnia, Guyana and Suriname.

    Upwards of 15 percent of these women are also affected by lack of contraception in parts of Central Asia, the Arab Gulf, the Balkans as well as more countries in the Caribbean and the Pacific.

    The study estimates that countries with low socio-demographic index scores showed a gap of more than 19 percent, compared with around 4.5 percent in high SDI and high-middle SDI countries.

    Developed North America and Western Europe had even lower gaps at just 2.9-3.5 percent. In Japan, this number was significantly higher at 10.8 percent, while it stood at 6.7 percent in South Korea.

    According to The Lancet, 80 percent of all women of reproductive age had their (potential) need for contraception satisfied worldwide in 2019, up from 55 percent in 1970.

    This still left around 163 million women with an unmet need.

    Young women between the ages of 15 to 19 saw the lowest demand satisfied at just around 65 percent, followed by the age group of 20 to 24-year-olds (72 percent).

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 23:25

  • FBI Sued After 'Losing' Valuable Rare Coins It Seized During Raid
    FBI Sued After ‘Losing’ Valuable Rare Coins It Seized During Raid

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The FBI is being sued after seizing the contents of safe deposit boxes and allegedly failing to return all of what it seized.

    Donald Mellein, left, and Jeni Pearsons. (Courtesy of Institute for Justice)

    Donald Mellein was storing 110 gold coins in one of the boxes. The FBI initially said it did not have the coins, but Mr. Mellein’s legal action resulted in the agency acknowledging it did have 47 of them.

    The FBI returned the coins but still has not given back the other 63, which are worth an estimated $123,419, according to one of the new lawsuits.

    “Don’s gold coins were completely secure until FBI agents broke open the safe-deposit box looking for property that could be forfeited. Their disappearance can only be explained by the acts or omissions of the FBI agents who broke into the box and rummaged through it. The FBI never should have broken into the safe-deposit boxes in the first place but, once it did, it became responsible for returning everything it had custody of, unless it had a lawful reason to keep it,” the suit, filed in U.S. court in California, states.

    Jeni Pearsons and Michael Storc were storing silver and cash in another one of the boxes. The FBI tried keeping the items, but eventually gave up. Agents returned the $20,000 in silver, but held on to $2,000 in cash, according to another suit.

    In both cases, the FBI has denied responsibility, stating there was “no evidence of negligence or wrongful acts on the part of any FBI employee.”

    “Jeni and Michael are entitled to have their cash returned, or to be reimbursed for its loss, regardless of whether they can prove that some FBI employee did something wrong or was negligent. Whatever the reason for the cash disappearing, the government is responsible for either returning the cash to Jeni and Michael or compensating them for what it took,” the other suit states.

    The FBI said it cannot comment on pending litigation. It pointed to a previous statement on a ruling that found agents investigating U.S. Private Vaults did not mislead the court.

    Lawyers at the Institute of Justice, which are representing the plaintiffs, are asking the court to award damages to the plaintiffs and declare federal law unconstitutional as applied by the FBI in the raids.

    “If normal people are held accountable for stealing or losing your property, then the government should be, too,” Joe Gay, an attorney at the institute, said in a statement. “Don, Jeni, and Michael did nothing wrong. The government never should have broken into their safe-deposit boxes, but once it did, it became responsible for keeping their property safe. If it doesn’t give it back, there must be a legal remedy.”

    More Background

    The FBI obtained warrants to search U.S. Private Vaults, which held more than 1,000 safe deposit boxes in Beverly Hills, and served them on March 22, 2021. The FBI said there was reason to believe the business had committed crimes.

    In warrant applications, FBI officials said they would “end up with custody” of the safe deposit boxes and the contents of the boxes. Officials promised the FBI would protect the contents and return them to their owners. The warrant allowed agents to perform an inventory of the boxes to “protect their agencies and the contents of the boxes” and directed agents to identify owners so the property could be returned.

    During depositions, though, one of the FBI officials has said the government planned to try to keep some of the contents that were worth at least $5,000. The FBI worked to find evidence that would support keeping the contents, such as evidence that money “smelled like drugs.”

    FBI official Lynne Zellhart, the official, acknowledged that no video recordings existed of when agents broke into some of the boxes. “Reality got in the way,” she testified.

    Detailed inventories of the boxes were also not created. One agent said the operation was aimed at “processing boxes quickly.” Vague terms like “miscellaneous general items” were used in a number of instances. Inventory forms for Mr. Mellein’s box did not refer to the 110 gold coins, according to the suit.

    Mr. Mellein applied to get his property back and soon received a notice of forfeiture proceedings that outlined how the government was working to keep cash and a gold bar that was also in his box. His lawyers convinced the FBI to abandon the effort, and the agency returned the cash and gold bar.

    Attempts to secure the coins were not fruitful, prompting a lawsuit. The government then said it had “found” 47 coins, but could not locate the other coins. Mr. Mellein withdrew his suit and filed an administrative claim, which was rejected.

    Ms. Pearsons and Mr. Storc went through a similar ordeal. They received their silver back, but not the cash they kept in the box.

    Mr. Mellein said in a statement: “The FBI had no reason to go through my box and they were careless in losing my savings. For months I was told they didn’t have any of my coins before they eventually found some of them. I’m disappointed that I have to sue again in order to get property back that should have been given back to me over two years ago.”

    Ms. Pearsons added: “We’re fighting for our money, but also to hold the government accountable when it takes people’s property and then steals or loses it.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 23:05

  • How Much Does It Take To Be In The Top 1% In Each US State?
    How Much Does It Take To Be In The Top 1% In Each US State?

    There’s an old saying: everyone thinks that they’re middle-class.

    But how many people think, or know, that they really belong to the top 1% in the country?

    Using data from personal finance advisory services company, SmartAsset, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao and Miranda Smith reveal the annual income threshold at which a household can be considered part of the top 1% in their state.

    Some states demand a much higher yearly earnings from their residents to be a part of the rarefied league, but which ones are they, and how much does one need to earn to make it to the very top echelon of income?

    Ranking U.S. States By Income to Be in the Top 1%

    At the top of the list, a household in Connecticut needs to earn nearly $953,000 annually to be part of the one-percenters. This is the highest minimum threshold across the country.

    In the same region, Massachusetts requires a minimum annual earnings of $903,401 from its top 1% residents.

    Here’s the list of all 50 U.S. states along with the annual income needed to be in the 1%.

    Rank State Top 1% Income
    Threshold    		 Top 1% Tax Rate
    (% of annual income)
    1 Connecticut $952,902 28.40%
    2 Massachusetts $903,401 27.15%
    3 California $844,266 26.95%
    4 New Jersey $817,346 28.01%
    5 Washington $804,853 25.99%
    6 New York $776,662 28.29%
    7 Colorado $709,092 25.86%
    8 Florida $694,987 25.82%
    9 Illinois $660,810 26.35%
    10 New Hampshire $659,037 26.25%
    11 Wyoming $656,118 24.79%
    12 Virginia $643,848 26.11%
    N/A National Average $652,657 N/A
    13 Maryland $633,333 25.94%
    14 Texas $631,849 25.83%
    15 Utah $630,544 23.77%
    16 Minnesota $626,451 25.53%
    17 Nevada $603,751 25.19%
    18 South Dakota $590,373 22.99%
    19 Pennsylvania $588,702 24.95%
    20 North Dakota $585,556 24.76%
    21 Georgia $585,397 25.06%
    22 Oregon $571,813 24.66%
    23 Arizona $564,031 25.22%
    24 Idaho $560,040 23.17%
    25 North Carolina $559,762 25.31%
    26 Montana $559,656 24.46%
    27 Kansas $554,912 25.03%
    28 Rhode Island $548,531 25.26%
    29 Tennessee $548,329 25.12%
    30 Alaska $542,824 25.38%
    31 Nebraska $535,651 24.10%
    32 Delaware $529,928 25.37%
    33 Vermont $518,039 23.63%
    34 Wisconsin $517,321 24.90%
    35 South Carolina $508,427 24.40%
    36 Michigan $504,671 25.01%
    37 Maine $502,605 24.04%
    38 Missouri $500,626 24.93%
    39 Ohio $500,253 25.09%
    40 Hawaii $495,263 24.12%
    41 Iowa $483,985 24.09%
    42 Indiana $473,685 24.55%
    43 Alabama $470,341 23.82%
    44 Oklahoma $460,172 23.68%
    45 Louisiana $458,269 24.80%
    46 Arkansas $450,700 21.11%
    47 Kentucky $445,294 24.14%
    48 New Mexico $411,395 23.35%
    49 Mississippi $381,919 23.04%
    50 West Virginia $367,582 23.26%
    N/A National Median
    Household Income    		 $75,000 N/A

    California ($844,266), New Jersey ($817,346), and Washington ($804,853) round out the top five states with the highest minimum thresholds to make it to their exclusive rich club.

    On the other end of the spectrum, the top one-percenters in West Virginia make a minimum of $367,582 a year, the lowest of all the states, and about one-third of the threshold in Connecticut. And just down southwest of the Mountain State, Mississippi’s one-percenters need to make at least $381,919 a year to qualify for the 1%.

    A quick glance at the map above also reveals some regional insights.

    The Northeast and West Coast, with their large urban and economic hubs, have higher income entry requirements for the top 1% than states in the American South.

    This also correlates to the median income by state, a measure showing Massachusetts households make nearly $90,000 a year, compared to Mississippians who take home $49,000 annually.

    How Much Do the Top 1% Pay in Taxes?

    Meanwhile, if one does make it to the top 1% in states like Connecticut and Massachusetts, expect to pay more in taxes than other states, according to SmartAsset’s analysis.

    The one-percenters in the top five states pay, on average, between 26–28% of their income in tax, compared to those in the bottom five who pay between 21–23%.

    And this pattern exists through the dataset, with higher top 1% income thresholds correlating with higher average tax rates for the wealthy.

    State Ranks Median Tax Rate
    Top 10 26.65%
    20-30 25.09%
    30-40 24.65%
    10-20 25.07%
    40-50 23.75%

    These higher tax rates point to attempts to reign in the increasing wealth disparity in the nation where the top 1% hold more than one-third of the country’s wealth, up from 27% in 1989.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 22:45

  • Intuit Reverses Ban On Gun-Related Businesses
    Intuit Reverses Ban On Gun-Related Businesses

    Authored by Naveen Ahtrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said he approved of software firm Intuit’s decision to reverse a ban on gun companies from accessing its payroll and payment processing services.

    Prior to Aug. 1, 2023, Intuit had prohibited gun sellers and manufacturers from using the full features of its QuickBooks service, an accounting software. Firearm manufacturers were not allowed to access QuickBooks’ payroll services, while entities that sold guns were ineligible for QuickBooks’ payment processing services.

    However, the company has now changed course.

    “I welcome Intuit’s reversal of its policy that had forbidden gun manufacturers and sellers from using certain QuickBooks services,” Mr. Cruz said in a Sept. 25 letter (pdf) to the company. “Intuit’s recent decision to allow such businesses to use the company’s payroll and payment services—a change prompted by my staff’s oversight investigation—was long overdue.”

    Mr. Cruz became aware of Intuit’s “discriminatory policies” when Dawson Precision, a Texas firearms parts manufacturer, informed his office that Inuit had, “without warning,” terminated the business’ subscription to QuickBooks payroll services, the letter said.

    “Dawson Precision only discovered what had happened after it submitted payroll and, rather than receiving confirmation that payroll had been processed, received a notification that its payroll subscription had been terminated,” Mr. Cruz wrote. “Intuit later said that it canceled Dawson Precision’s account because, as a firearm manufacturer, it was in violation of Intuit’s acceptable use policy.”

    Dawson Precision attempted to appeal the termination but did not succeed in reversing the cancellation. Due to Intuit’s actions, the firm had to print paper checks for several weeks.

    Other Business Affected

    When Intuit abruptly stopped providing credit card processing services to Arizona-based Gunsite Academy, it prevented the business from functioning efficiently, Mr. Cruz pointed out. The academy provided marksmanship training and sold guns. Intuit insisted that its policy bans businesses that engage in “non-face-to-face gun sales,” according to the letter.

    Even when Gunsite Academy pointed out that it only shipped firearms to dealers and not directly to customers, Intuit refused to reverse its ban.

    “Intuit’s policy effectively prohibited small businesses that sell firearms from operating online, even though such sales are entirely legal and heavily regulated,” the letter said.

    “My staff have not yet received a satisfactory explanation as to why restrictions were necessary for businesses that ship firearms to another licensed firearms dealer, or why a private entity desired to impose an extra-governmental, quasi-regulatory requirement on a lawful industry.”

    Following an investigation conducted by Mr. Cruz’s staff, Intuit reversed the policy.

    “My staff will continue their investigation to ensure that no financial services firm unnecessarily limits the firearm industry’s access to accounting or banking products,” the letter stated.

    “Intuit should confirm that its revised policy regarding gun manufacturers and sellers is final,” Mr. Cruz said. In addition, the company should “update my staff when it has informed its customers of the new policies and offered to reinstate the accounts of all the customers that it previously had removed based on the old policies.”

    Pressured by Banks

    According to Mr. Cruz’s letter, Intuit’s policies against firearms sellers and manufacturers were not “entirely of its own making.” The company said that its two banking partners, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co., demanded that it enforce such policies.

    It was Bank of America that asked Intuit to block firearms manufacturers from using QuickBooks payroll services, while JPMorgan asked it to restrict payment processing service for firearms sellers, the letter said.

    JPMorgan acknowledged to Mr. Cruz’s staff that it did issue such a directive. “Bank of America, however, denied that it had ever given Intuit any instructions relating to firearm manufacturers or sellers,” the letter stated.

    “Intuit insisted that Bank of America did. Regardless of who originated these discriminatory policies against gun manufacturers, Intuit was right to end them.”

    A spokesperson for Intuit said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times that the company’s acceptable use policy is “based on various factors, including compliance with laws and banking partner requirements. Our commitment to customers is unwavering, and we will continue to ensure our policies serve their needs.”

    Protecting Gun Rights

    Intuit’s reversal of its gun business policy is one of the latest victories for gun rights advocates in recent times.

    On Sept. 8, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham announced a 30-day gun carry ban for counties over a certain size. However, U.S. District Judge David Urias put the governor’s declaration on hold, calling the order unconstitutional. Gun Owners of America and its legal arm, the Gun Owner’s Foundation, had sued to block the order.

    On Sept. 22, a federal judge from California determined that the state’s ban on gun magazines that hold more than 10 rounds of ammunition is unconstitutional.

    “The history and tradition of the Second Amendment clearly supports state laws against the use or misuse of firearms with unlawful intent, but not the disarmament of the law-abiding citizen,” U.S. District Judge Roger Benitez, appointed by President George W. Bush, wrote in the decision.

    Meanwhile, the Biden administration recently announced the formation of the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention, which has raised concerns among gun rights groups.

    The office will be led by Vice President Kamala Harris and will be run with the help of gun safety advocates, White House officials stated.

    “This new White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention … will drive and coordinate a government and a nationwide effort to reduce gun violence in America,” President Joe Biden said, adding that he was “determined to send a clear message about how important this issue is to me and to the country.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 22:25

  • 'Missing' Biden Whistleblower (Who Garland Indicted) Offers Dirt On FBI 'Mole' Who Tipped Off Hunter
    ‘Missing’ Biden Whistleblower (Who Garland Indicted) Offers Dirt On FBI ‘Mole’ Who Tipped Off Hunter

    ‘Missing’ Israeli whistleblower Gal Luft, who was indicted by the Biden administration for failing to register under the Foreign Agents Act (FARA), has offered new evidence to the House impeachment inquiry about an FBI mole who tipped off Hunter Biden that his Chinese partners were about to be indicted, according to the NY Post‘s Miranda Devine.

    Luft was also charged with conspiracy to illegally sell weapons to Chinese individuals and companies, as well as aerial bombs and rockets to the UAE, Chinese weapons to Kenya, and Iranian oil to other countries in violation of sanctions.

    He was initially arrested Feb. 17 in Cyprus, but fled after being released on bail. He faces up to 100 years in prison if convicted.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Israeli professor and former Israel Defense Forces officer has been on the run for six months after skipping bail in Cyprus, where he was awaiting extradition to the United States on gun-running and foreign lobbying charges, also brought by the SDNY.

    In an open letter to Reps James Comer (R-Ky.), Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Jason Smith (R-Mo.), the three House committee chairmen running the impeachment inquiry, Luft claims that the tipoff to Chinese executives of CEFC came on the same day that the first son wrote a WhatsApp message shaking down another CEFC employee for millions of dollars over a “highly confidential and time sensitive” matter while claiming his father was in the room with him.

    “I am sitting here with my father, and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled,” Hunter wrote in a July 30, 2017 message to CEFC employee Raymond Zhao, which was presented to Congress during June testimony by IRS whistleblower Gary Shapley.

    “I will make certain that between the man sitting next to me and every person he knows and my ability to forever hold a grudge that you will regret not following my direction. I am sitting here waiting for the call with my father.”

    That night, after Hunter’s threatening message, CEFC executive Partrick Ho received an urgent call from CEFC president Chan Chauto, who told him to leave the United States immediately, according to Luft, who frequently spoke with Ho.

    Ho flew to Hong Kong the next day.

    In a follow-up WhatsApp, Zhao told Hunter that “CEFC is willing to cooperate with the family. He thinks now the priority is to solve the problem mentioned last night.”

    According to Luft, the “problem” and the “highly confidential and time sensitive” matter was the secret indictments from the SDNY which Hunter was tipped off about.

    Nine days after Hunter’s WhatsApp shakedown, CEFC wired $5.1 million to entities in the US to transfer to Hunter.

    Luft – who flew to Hong Kong to deal with Ho on Aug. 14, 2017 (two weeks after Ho fled), says the Chinese nickname for the FBI mole was “One-Eye.”

    “The existence of a potential mole within the FBI and/or Justice Department who conveyed to Chinese individuals information about sealed indictments has, apparently, to this day never been solved,” Luft wrote to Comer, adding “Perhaps Congress should investigate the issue as part of its impeachment inquiry.”

    The tipoff to CEFC executives came at a crucial stage in their negotiations to buy into Russian state-owned energy company Rosneft and came just 10 days before a curious meeting between a CEFC employee in Albania and disgraced G-man Charles McGonigal, then counterintelligence boss at the FBI’s New York Field Office, which had been surveilling Ho and his associates. McGonigal pleaded guilty Friday to concealing at least $225,000 in cash payments from a former Albanian intelligence official.

    On Sept. 8, 2017, CEFC announced its plans to acquire a $9.1 billion stake in Rosneft.

    On Sept. 9, 2017, McGonigal met Dorian Ducka, a CEFC employee and Hunter Biden associate, in Albania, according to his indictment. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama also was at the meeting. At Ducka’s request, McGonigal urged Rama to be careful about awarding oil field drilling licenses in Albania to Russian front companies.

    On Sept. 10, 2017, Hunter signed an attorney engagement letter to represent CEFC’s Ho for a $1 million retainer. -NY Post

    Luft also says that sometime around September 2017, Hunter and his uncle Jim Biden flew to Hong Kong to meet with Ho, who they asked to buy them two “burner” phones. They told him that the coast was clear to return to the US, however upon his arrival at JFK Airport on Nov. 17, 2017, Ho was arrested by the Trump DOJ on charges of bribery and money laundering.

    Ho’s first call? Jim Biden, looking for Hunter.

    Hunter reached out to lawyer Edward Kim, who asked Hunter in an email the afternoon of Ho’s arrest to “find the names of the FBI agents you spoke with, that would be helpful.”

    “Working on it,” Hunter replied.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    FBI Agent testifies

    And in yet another breadcrumb of corruption, an FBI supervisor has corroborated key aspects of testimony by two IRS whistleblowers, who say that federal prosecutors slow-walked Hunter’s criminal probe, and refused to bring tax charges in LA and Washington DC, according to a transcript of an interview reviewed by Just the News.

    The female FBI supervisor, whose name the Justice Department asked be kept private in the transcript, was interviewed recently by the House Judiciary Committee, and she chronicled her interactions with IRS agents Gary Shapley and Joseph Ziegler and Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss, the lead prosecutor in the Hunter Biden probe.

    While the agent said she had different recollections than her IRS colleagues about certain aspects of the case and did not believe politics caused any delays, she confirmed there were instances in which prosecutors slowed the investigation.

    Specifically, she confirmed agents were concerned that the DOJ tried to use the 2022 midterm elections to delay action in the Hunter Biden case even though his father was not up for election last year.

    “I know that that had come up,” said the agent, who worked in the Baltimore office which supervised cases in Delaware.

    “Delays related to the election?” she was asked.

    “Yes, I noted that had come up,” she replied.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 22:05

  • EPA’s Illegal Power Play
    EPA’s Illegal Power Play

    Authored by Mario Loyola via RealClear Wire,

    The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in West Virginia v. EPA last year was a historic defeat for the Environmental Protection Agency. Not only did the Court rule that the 2015 Clean Power Plan, President Obama’s signature climate regulation, was unconstitutional; it also dramatically limited EPA’s power to regulate carbon emissions under the Clean Air Act (CAA) moving forward. 

    That left the agency with two courses of action. It could take its lumps and focus on proposing regulations with a high chance of surviving federal court review. Or it could stake everything on a final desperate attempt to decarbonize America’s power sector, and go for the win in keeping with President Biden’s commitment to net zero carbon emissions. 

    On May 23, 2023, EPA chose the latter, proposing carbon emissions standards for power plants far more ambitious than those struck down by the Supreme Court last year. Like other EPA climate regulations, the proposed emissions standards under Section 111 of CAA are not designed to reduce emissions from standard power plants, but rather to force a rapid transition away from reliable and affordable sources of dispatchable power—natural gas and coal—to intermittent renewables and new kinds of power plants that don’t even exist yet. Together with EPA’s electric vehicle mandates, the proposed rule would be a train wreck for the American electricity grid and society as a whole, endangering economic competitiveness and energy security while yielding no measurable climate benefit. 

    Those hoping for a dramatic finish to Biden’s climate action will not be disappointed: the proposal has so many legal vulnerabilities that it would be a miracle if the rule survives federal court review. 

    Under the proposed rule, which President Biden hopes to finalize by next summer, large new or modified natural gas plants and existing coal plants would be required to virtually eliminate carbon emissions by 2038, at the latest. Under Section 111(a) “New Source Performance Standards” (NSPS), large new or modified combined-cycle natural gas plants, which currently supply roughly 30% of the nation’s electricity, would be required to achieve close to zero carbon emissions, either by implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS) to capture 90% of carbon emissions by 2035, or by switching from natural gas to 98% “green” hydrogen co-firing by 2038. In addition, under Section 111(d) emissions guidelines, existing coal plants, which currently supply more than 20% of America’s electricity, would be required to virtually eliminate carbon emissions by implementing CCS by 2035. 

    Interestingly, EPA declined to promulgate NSPS for coal plants because, as it explains, there are no plans to build any new coal plants in the U.S. It declined to promulgate emissions guidelines for existing natural gas plants out of concern for feasibility. Even more interesting, when EPA sent the proposed rule to the White House for regulatory review under E.O. 12866, it contained no emissions guidelines for existing plants at all, and therefore would not have applied to coal plants at all. The White House reportedly sent it back to EPA with orders to put a Section 111(d) rule for existing coal plants in the proposal. This suggests that EPA itself is not very confident in the ability of the Section 111(d) rule to survive court review. 

    Section 111 of CAA, the same provision at issue in West Virginia v. EPA, authorizes EPA to mandate “the degree of emission limitation achievable through the application of the best system of emission reduction which (taking into account the cost of achieving such reduction and any nonair quality health and environmental impact and energy requirements) the Administrator determines has been adequately demonstrated.” 

    Section 111 sets a high bar, especially after West Virginia v. EPA. The proposed rule falls woefully short. It has at least three major legal vulnerabilities, any one of which would be sufficient for a court to strike the rule down. 

    First, neither CCS nor green hydrogen is anywhere near “adequately demonstrated” within the meaning of Section 111. Second, EPA has systematically ignored crucial costs and impacts that it is required to take into account in setting emissions standards under Section 111. Third, like the “best system of emission reduction” struck down in West Virginia v. EPA, the new rule would require sweeping regulatory action and infrastructure investments entirely outside the fence line of the regulated facilities, thereby raising the “major question” doctrine’s presumption against the agency’s interpretation of the law. 

    The Mandated Technologies Have Not Been “Adequately Demonstrated” 

    The linchpin of Section 111 of CAA is that the “best system of emission reduction” (BSER) must be an “adequately demonstrated” technology. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, the principal venue for judicial review of agency action in the U.S., explicated the provision’s meaning. In Portland Cement v. Ruckelshaus (1973), for example, the D.C. Circuit wrote that in determining whether a technology is adequately demonstrated, “[t]he Administrator may make a projection based on existing technology, though that projection is subject to the restraints of reasonableness and cannot be based on ‘crystal ball’ inquiry.” 

    Subsequent decisions of the D.C. Circuit, particularly the ones that EPA relies on in the preamble to the proposed rule, have emphasized that BSER must be based on technology demonstrated at the scale and for the purpose for which it will be used by regulated entities to comply with the new standards. Unlike other provisions of CAA, Section 111 is not designed to force industry to develop new technologies. “[A] standard cannot both require adequately demonstrated technology and also be technology-forcing,” said the D.C. Circuit in NRDC v. Thomas (1986). 

    Contrary to the unambiguous pronouncements of the D.C. Circuit, EPA treats Section 111 as if it were a technology-forcing provision throughout the proposed rule. For example, EPA claims that CCS has been “adequately demonstrated” for natural gas plants based on small-scale demonstrations at coal plants. But the coal demonstrations cited involve only small slipstreams (carbon captured from a small percentage of the plant’s total emissions) for use in the food industry. Moreover, the coal plant demonstrations do not involve the sophisticated combined-cycle configurations of large natural gas plants—in which the exhaust from the primary combustion cycle is used to heat the steam generator of the second cycle—that the new standards focus on. 

    In the several hundred pages laying out the proposed rule, EPA provides just two examples of demonstrations at natural gas plants. One, at Bellingham, Massachusetts, captured only a 10% slipstream and closed in 2005 because it was not economical. That was a decade before the Obama-era Clean Power Plan, in which EPA correctly rejected CCS as inadequately demonstrated and too costly. The other, a project at Peterhead, Scotland, is still in planning and may not even be built. Neither can be used as the basis for an adequately demonstrated BSER. 

    Furthermore, EPA’s CCS mandate would require a massive buildout of carbon transport and storage infrastructure, which has not been adequately demonstrated and would require sweeping investments and regulatory changes by developers and government authorities unrelated to the entities subject to regulation under Section 111 of CAA. Like the measures “beyond the fence line” of regulated entities that were struck down in West Virginia v. EPA, this massive infrastructure buildout would be beyond the ability of EPA-regulated entities to implement.

    Co-firing with low-carbon hydrogen is even further from being adequately demonstrated. Nearly all hydrogen today is produced using carbon-intensive methods. Indeed, electrolysis from renewable and nuclear power produces only trivial quantities, and EPA doesn’t even bother to estimate the cost, feasibility, or time it would take to build out the vast amount of new renewable and nuclear power capacity that would be needed to make the low-GHG hydrogen a practicable option for power plants. 

    In the meantime, no existing natural gas plant can co-fire anywhere near EPA’s proposed 96% hydrogen because hydrogen burns much hotter and faster, making current turbines unsuitable for most hydrogen feedstock. Indeed, EPA admits that hydrogen-capable turbines will require a major redesign of combined-cycle natural gas plant turbines, another way in which EPA’s BSER fails to meet the requirement of adequate demonstration. Even the intermediate standard of 30% co-firing, while tested on small industrials facilities, has not been demonstrated at utility scale. 

    Finally, EPA explicitly states that its hydrogen BSER is technology-forcing, which, according to controlling precedent in the D.C. Circuit, is not “adequately demonstrated” by definition. Beyond the fence line of regulated facilities, EPA admits that hydrogen faces obstacles of infrastructure limitations, as well as inadequate storage and delivery. All this undermines the claim of adequate demonstration, not to mention the fact that such investments would be entirely beyond the competence of regulated entities. 

    The same D.C. Circuit cases that EPA relies on to explicate adequate demonstration clearly show that EPA has fallen well short of the minimum statutory standard. EPA alludes to “the D.C. Circuit’s view that EPA may determine a system of emission reduction to be adequately demonstrated if EPA reasonably projects that it will be available by a future date certain.” But the agency cites no case for that proposition, and a close reading of Sierra Club v. Costle(1981) shows that that is not the D.C. Circuit’s view.

    In Sierra Club v. Costle, the D.C. Circuit indicated that dry scrubbing, which, at that time, was an emerging clean coal technology, was not adequately demonstrated because, as an “emerging technology,” there were “crucial issues such as … demonstration of commercial-scale systems, which may continue to limit the overall acceptability of this technology.” The court noted that “major uncertainty” existed with the technology “in the absence of experience at large-scale facilities” and that EPA could not extrapolate from smaller pilot-scale facilities. Just as in that case, EPA here admits that CCS and green hydrogen are emerging technologies. Its catalog of demonstrations at different scales, different sources, and different industries does not amount to much, since those scales, sources, and industries are not the ones it now seeks to regulate. What EPA’s own examples show is that considerable uncertainty remains with respect to the overall feasibility and acceptability of its proposed technologies. 

    The one case that EPA discusses in some detail is the per curiam opinion in Lignite Energy Council v. EPA. According to EPA, the court then held that technology could be “adequately demonstrated through a ‘reasonable extrapolation of performance in other industries.’ ’’ What EPA neglects to mention is the reason that the D.C. Circuit allowed such extrapolation in that case: namely, that the pollution sources in the other industry were similar in design, scale, and emissions profile to the sources that EPA had sought to regulate. By EPA’s own admission, that is not the case here. 

    In short, neither CCS nor “green” hydrogen co-firing meets the Section 111 legal standards of “adequately demonstrated” BSER. 

    EPA Has Ignored the Proposed Rule’s Costs, as well as Its Health, Environment, and Energy Impacts

    In determining that a technology is “adequately demonstrated” under Section 111, EPA must take into account the costs of the rule, as well as the health, environment, and energy impacts of the rule. Courts have interpreted this as requiring that costs be reasonable. That poses a threshold problem for EPA’s proposed rule because EPA can point to no measurable environmental benefit that would result from compliance. EPA has based all its greenhouse gas regulations on the same original 2010 Endangerment Finding, which has serious problems of its own, as William Happer and Richard Lindzen note in their July 2023 comment letter to the proposed rule. It has not been demonstrated that the sources subject to the rule make a significant contribution to a condition of air pollution that endangers human health, and the finding mentions the 2021 Technical Support Document on Social Cost of Carbon only in connection with a regulatory impact analysis that is unrelated to the requirements of CAA. Under such circumstances, there is a threshold question of whether any significant costs could be reasonable. 

    There are other problems with EPA’s estimate of costs and impacts, too. First, its estimate of costs is highly speculative. The rule would affect a host of entities and government authorities across the whole society, the vast majority of them not subject to regulation under CAA, and EPA has little clue as to how they will adjust to the rule. If its cost estimates are off by any significant amount, regulated entities could well react by shuttering, rather than attempting to comply, which would create a situation of dangerous energy scarcity with skyrocketing prices. In parts of the country where fossil energy is restricted as a matter of policy, such as California, the electricity grid is on the verge of dangerous blackouts almost every evening in the summer. And those restrictions are modest, compared with those now contemplated by EPA.

    EPA’s most egregious failure to properly account for costs is that it subtracts the amount of federal subsidies from the cost estimate, a nominal reduction of $369 billion based on CBO’s score. That figure will likely turn out to be much greater, given the subsidies’ lack of date-certain sunset. 

    EPA’s practice of reducing cost estimates under Section 111 by the amount of federal subsidies amounts to an accounting trick that vitiates the purpose for which cost considerations were included in the provision. To see why, consider an emissions standard that costs 10% of gross domestic product to achieve every year. Congress could pass a law subsidizing the entire cost of achieving the standard. By EPA’s logic, the cost of the standard would then be “zero,” even though the subsidy would actually cost more than $2 trillion every year, increasing the overall federal budget by half. To say that the costs of such a standard are “zero” would be tantamount to fraud on the public. 

    The practice certainly violates Section 111, a fact that EPA tries to cover up with what can only be described as an intentionally misleading characterization of congressional intent: “The legislative history of the [Inflation Reduction Act] makes clear that Congress was well aware that EPA may promulgate rulemaking under CAA Section 111 based on CCS and explicitly stated that EPA should consider the tax credit to reduce the costs of CCUS (i.e., CCS).” But the only “explicit statement” to that effect in the entire legislative history is a statement by a single congressman, Representative Frank Pallone (D–NJ). A statement by a single congressman simply cannot be attributed to Congress. 

    On the contrary, federal courts have consistently recognized that, in contrast to other provisions of CAA, “costs” in Section 111 mean all costs, direct and indirect, regardless of who ends up paying for them. EPA cites no legal basis for reducing the cost estimates under Section 111 by the amount of federal subsidies, which merely shift the costs of compliance from consumers in their guise as ratepayers to consumers in their guise as taxpayers. Given the clear statutory requirement to consider all costs, EPA’s invocation of congressional intent would be unavailing even if it were not misleading. 

    As for the impact on electricity prices, EPA estimates that the rule would lead to a price increase of 13%. That is almost certainly a woeful underestimate. In California, where a much milder form of renewable energy mandate has been in place for years, end-user electricity costs are twice the national average. The costs of compliance with the new rules could be far more exorbitant. As further explained below, CCS would reduce the power output of the relevant plants by at least 30%, while green hydrogen would likely be three to four times more expensive to produce and deliver as current demonstrations using natural gas. 

    The CCS infrastructure alone would require a massive buildout of at least 60,000 miles of pipelines and thousands of injection wells, according to the estimates in the Princeton Net Zero America study. The Congressional Research Service has noted that even small demonstrations of CCS have raised significant safety issues and triggered fierce local opposition. Similarly, the hydrogen BSER would require enormous amounts of new renewable energy capacity in order to produce the “green” hydrogen dreamed of in the rule, along with tens of thousands of miles of highly specialized pipelines for delivery to the power plants. Given the number of factors outside EPA’s expertise and jurisdiction that would determine how much time and money all that infrastructure would cost, EPA’s estimates are little more than conjecture.

    While EPA discusses other proposed rules in its preamble, it curiously avoids all mention of several recently proposed vehicle emissions standards that would force two-thirds of all new vehicles produced in the U.S. to be electric by 2032. If implemented as proposed, those rules would shift most of the transportation sector’s energy requirements onto the electricity grid, at the same time as the power plant rule will almost certainly be significantly diminishing the overall capacity of the grid. If implemented simultaneously, the new vehicle and power plant rules would be a catastrophic train wreck for the nation’s electricity grid. Nonetheless, EPA appears to be totally unaware of the danger—another failure to meet the minimum requirements of a standard under Section 111. 

    The rule also ignores other impacts. It would force generation shifting from large baseload generators to simple-cycle intermediate and “peaker” plants, which are normally used to provide electricity during times of the day when demand is highly variable. Those plants get a pass under the proposed rule because, according to EPA, they are not compatible with CCS for engineering reasons, or with green hydrogen for cost reasons. Under the rule, it will be far cheaper for utilities to rely on intermediate and peaker generators and simply avoid the costly CCS and hydrogen co-firing requirements that will apply to baseload generators. 

    That is a major loophole in the rule, and one that could well result in more pollution of all kinds, including the toxic and other dangerous pollutants that CAA was originally designed to reduce. Intermediate and peaker plants are far less efficient than combined-cycle plants and, correspondingly, produce more emissions of all pollutants per unit of power output. Furthermore, carbon capture is an energy-intensive process that relies heavily on steam-generated power and reduces the electrical output of a power plant by as much 30%, which would also increase the emissions rate per unit of output. Yet EPA casually dismisses concerns about increased emissions of toxic and other dangerous pollutants. 

    The Power Plant Rule Raises the Same “Major Question” as in West Virginia v. EPA

    In West Virginia v. EPA, the Supreme Court struck down a very similar attempt to regulate carbon-dioxide emissions from power plants under Section 111 of CAA—namely, Obama’s Clean Power Plan. The key issue there was whether EPA’s expansive definition of “best system of emission reduction” could be squared with the statute. 

    Section 111’s concept of BSER had always been interpreted to refer to technologies, such as scrubbers, that polluters could feasibly install within the facility to reduce emissions. But in the Clean Power Plan, EPA decided that BSER could extend “beyond the fence line” to the whole economy, encompassing utilities’ choice of power sources and other matters beyond EPA’s jurisdiction. Under this novel interpretation of Section 111, EPA was, in effect, claiming the power to reorganize a significant portion of the American economy. 

    The Court held that EPA’s interpretation raised a “major question” and that, in the absence of clear congressional authorization, the claimed power exceeded EPA’s statutory authority. The Court noted that EPA’s approach to BSER allowed it to set emissions standards at whatever level the agency wanted, regardless of whether any regulated entity could feasibly comply with the new standards. The Court noted that the Clean Power Plan would result “in numerical emissions ceilings so strict that no existing coal plant would have been able to achieve them without engaging in [generation-shifting].”

    EPA’s new power plant rule relies on a similarly expansive definition of BSER to establish standards that can be met only by shifting generation away from fossil sources. The only way that regulated sources could comply with the rule would be if states or utilities (or other developers) would build a major interstate infrastructure for CCS and “green” hydrogen, including tens of thousands of miles of specialized pipelines, massive underground storage facilities for CO2, and large-scale facilities for the production and transport of hydrogen gas from renewable sources. Whether to develop such infrastructure is a decision totally beyond the control of regulated entities. 

    In West Virginia v. EPA, the Court held that EPA’s sudden discovery of a “transformative expansion” in its regulatory authority based on an obscure provision of a “long-extant statute” raised a “major question” about the agency’s authority, requiring Congress to speak with far greater clarity than it had in the statute. EPA’s expansive definition of BSER entailed impacts of great political significance and sought to regulate a significant portion of the American economy. 

    Just so, EPA’s new interpretation of its authority under Section 111 of CAA—departing from an almost infinitely elastic concept of both BSER and “adequately demonstrated”—presents a major question. The claimed power would regulate a significant portion of the American economy, entails political impact of great significance, and intrudes on matters that are the traditional domain of the states.

    EPA’s Persistent Usurpation of Congressional Authority

    EPA’s efforts to restrict greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and other sources represent a dangerous overreach of executive power. Congress never authorized EPA to regulate greenhouse gases in this expansive manner. By trying to reorganize the country’s electricity-sector limits through executive fiat, rather than the legislative process, EPA is abusing its authority and circumventing democracy. Net zero climate policy raises novel issues that affect every American citizen in almost every aspect of modern life. Policy requiring such transformative change should be left to Congress. 

    Mario Loyola is a professor at Florida International University and senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation. He served in the Trump administration as Associate Director for Regulatory Reform at the White House Council on Environmental Quality. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 21:45

  • Hersh Reveals Motive For Covert Nord Stream Sabotage Attack, One Year On
    Hersh Reveals Motive For Covert Nord Stream Sabotage Attack, One Year On

    On the one-year anniversary of the September 26, 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage bombings under the Baltic Sea, legendary journalist Seymour Hersh has provided more context and color based on his intelligence sources. 

    Hersh’s original bombshell reporting in his How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline said that it was a highly secret CIA operation with assistance from an elite US Navy dive team as well as Norwegian intelligence. 

    Given Hersh’s significant charge that Washington conducted a ‘false flag’ – at a moment many Western officials were quick to blame Moscow for destroying its own pipelines, Russia had in the wake of Hersh’s reporting called for an urgent United Nations investigation into the sabotage. 

    Instead of answering questions, for example when in March The Intercept approached the White House for answers, the Biden administration merely said it was supporting the separate investigations of individual countries like Sweden, Germany, and Denmark.

    The heart of Hersh’s new article this week, which is entitled A Year of Lying About Nord Stream, deals with motive. What was the United States’ motive? – he asks, and his sources tell… The answer is somewhat surprising (or not), and relates to the all-important question of energy dependence. 

    Below are key sections from the new Hersh investigative report, broken up by our own subheadings…

    * * *

    Completely ‘offline planning’ & plausible deniability

    Deniability, as an option for President Joe Biden and his foreign policy advisers, was paramount. No significant information about the mission was put on a computer, but instead typed on a Royal or perhaps a Smith Corona typewriter with a carbon copy or two, as if the Internet and the rest of the online world had yet to be invented. The White House was isolated from the goings-on near Oslo; various reports and updates from the field were directly provided to CIA Director Bill Burns, who was the only link between the planners and the president who authorized the mission to take place on September 26, 2022. Once the mission was completed, the typed papers and carbons were destroyed, thus leaving no physical trace—no evidence to be dug up later by a special prosecutor or a presidential historian. You could call it the perfect crime.

    The Germans possibly had foreknowledge

    It was no surprise to the agency’s secret planning group when on January 27, 2022, the assured and confident Nuland, then undersecretary of state for political affairs, stridently warned Putin that if he invaded Ukraine, as he clearly was planning to, that “one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.” The line attracted enormous attention, but the words preceding the threat did not. The official State Department transcript shows that she preceded her threat by saying that with regard to the pipeline: “We continue to have very strong and clear conversations with our German allies.”

    …The German leader was considered then—and now—by some members of the CIA team to be fully aware of the secret planning underway to destroy the pipelines.

    * * *

    Biden’s extraordinary public threat

    What I did not know then, but was told recently, was that after Biden’s extraordinary public threat to blow up Nord Stream 2, with Scholz standing next to him, the CIA planning group was told by the White House that there would be no immediate attack on the two pipelines, but the group should arrange to plant the necessary bombs and be ready to trigger them “on demand”—after the war began. “It was then that we”—the small planning group that was working in Oslo with the Royal Norwegian Navy and special services on the project—“understood that the attack on the pipelines was not a deterrent because as the war went on we never got the command.”

    After Biden’s order to trigger the explosives planted on the pipelines, it took only a short flight with a Norwegian fighter and the dropping of an altered off-the-shelf sonar device at the right spot in the Baltic Sea to get it done. By then the CIA group had long disbanded. By then, too, the official told me: “We realized that the destruction of the two Russian pipelines was not related to the Ukrainian war”—Putin was in the process of annexing the four Ukrainian oblasts he wanted—“but was part of a neocon political agenda to keep Scholz and Germany, with winter coming up and the pipelines shut down, from getting cold feet and opening up” the shuttered Nord Stream 2. “The White House fear was that Putin would get Germany under his thumb and then he was going to get Poland.”

    Motive

    All of this explains why a routine question I posed a month or so after the bombings to someone with many years in the American intelligence community led me to a truth that no one in America or Germany seems to want to pursue. My question was simple: “Who did it?”

    The Biden administration blew up the pipelines but the action had little to do with winning or stopping the war in Ukraine. It resulted from fears in the White House that Germany would waver and turn on the flow of Russia gas—and that Germany and then NATO, for economic reasons, would fall under the sway of Russia and its extensive and inexpensive natural resources. And thus followed the ultimate fear: that America would lose its long-standing primacy in Western Europe.

    Read the full Hersh report and subscribe at Substack

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 21:25

  • Just The Facts On 'Geofencing': The Intrusive, App-Based 'Dragnet' That Sgt. Joe Friday Never Dreamed Of
    Just The Facts On ‘Geofencing’: The Intrusive, App-Based ‘Dragnet’ That Sgt. Joe Friday Never Dreamed Of

    Authored by Maggie MacFarland Phillips via RealClear Wire,

    As worshippers gathered at the Calvary Chapel in 2020, they were being watched from above.  

    “We are in the space between the emergence of this technological practice and courts having ruled on its constitutionality,” said Alex Marthews, national chair for Restore the 4th, a nonprofit organization dedicated to the protection of the Fourth Amendment, which protects Americans’ rights against “unreasonable search and seizure.” 

    “Geofencing” often begins with an innocent click. Smartphone apps ask if they can access location to improve service. When users say they yes, they often don’t realize that the apps that help them drive, cook, or pray are likely reselling their information to far-flung for-profit entities. This and other information detailing people’s behaviors and preferences is valuable for businesses trying to target customers. The global location intelligence market was estimated at $16 billion last year, according to Grand View Research, which predicts that figure will grow to $51 billion by 2030.

    While it is legal for private companies to broker this information, constitutional questions arise when government accesses data from a third party that it would be prohibited from collecting on its own. The lawsuit filed by Calvary Chapel in August argues that Santa Clara County carried out a warrantless surveillance of the church when it acquired information in 2020 on the church’s foot traffic patterns collected by a research team from Stanford University. Court documents show the researchers acquired the information, which originated with Google Maps, from the location data company SafeGraph, which is also being sued by Calvary. 

    Nicole Berger, SafeGraph’s senior vice president of operations, has said the Stanford team violated the company’s terms of service and non-commercial research agreement. For its part, Google has since cracked down on third-party vendors, though it still uses location and other data for its own operations.

    Google was recently ordered to pay $93 million in a settlement over its collection of location data even after users turned off their location history. The company is also involved in an ongoing dispute in an Oakland, Calif., U.S. District Court over the company’s “Real Time Bidding” process, whereby customers’ personal information is auctioned off to advertisers, so that they can place targeted ads. According to the Calvary Chapel lawsuit, it was this process, among others, which enabled SafeGraph to collect users’ location data. 

    Geofencing allows users to build a fence around certain areas or points-of-interest such as Calvary Chapel or the area near the Capitol on Jan. 6 and see when people entered that space.

    It is becoming routine for law enforcement agencies to use warrants to require companies like Google to hand over location data that may be connected to criminal activity. Rep. Jim Jordan recently wrote a letter asking Attorney General Merrick Garland to expand use of such warrants. Privacy advocates and a bipartisan group of legislators say that acquisition of such information without a warrant presents a troubling, and relatively new constitutional dilemma. The Calvary Chapel suit, as well as proposed legislation working its way through Congress, experts say, could prove important landmarks in resolving this tension between technological innovation and constitutional protections.

    The Calvary Chapel suit stems from an earlier court case, in which the church was ordered to pay over $1 million in fines for violating county public health orders in 2020, by holding services on its premises without social distancing or masking. 

    During the trial over the fines last year, it came to light that a research team headed by Stanford University professor of administrative law and statistical inference Daniel Ho had used SafeGraph data to provide Santa Clara County health officers with analysis on aggregate visits to Calvary Chapel covering the period of January 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021. In his 2022 “expert witness report,” Ho said the SafeGraph dataset he analyzed “was widely used during the pandemic to understand social distancing by public health authorities, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the California Governor’s Office, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, and Santa Clara County,” where information about “points-of-interest” included 1,576 religious organizations. 

    Ho said he was able to estimate the average daily visits to the church.  

    Data brokers, including SafeGraph, insist that their information is anonymized. But it is precisely the lack of specificity that worries its critics. “There’s no particular individual who the government is suspicious of,” Adam Schwartz of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, told RealClearInvestigations. “It’s a dragnet.”

    Moreover, there is no guarantee that the data collected through geofencing stays anonymous. “It is often very easy to take supposedly de-identified data and re-identify a person,” said Schwartz, “And it’s very, very easy to do that with location data.” The same phone spotted in two locations, he said, can be easily traced to a specific individual “because people have very unique travel and location patterns.”

    At Calvary Chapel, for example, in-person surveillance conducted by the county, as well as numerous in-person depositions of Chapel members and employees during the previous legal contretemps between the county and the church that began in 2020, would have provided local officials with detailed knowledge of who was on the premises, and when.

    The right to privacy, said Calvary Chapel attorney Mariah Gondiero, is “really going to be the key to this case,” with an overarching question of whether congregants have a reasonable expectation of privacy while in church. “You absolutely need a warrant,” she said, where that expectation exists.

    In any event, critics say, law enforcement’s use of geofencing – even when it is backed by a warrant – violates the Fourth Amendment.

    “There is very significant debate right now whether it is possible for a geofence warrant to meet the Fourth Amendment burden of particularity,” said Alex Marthews, referring to the legal principle that warrants must be specific to the individual, property, and place in order to be constitutional.

    Geofencing proponents argue that it falls under the “administrative search” exception to the Fourth Amendment, which allows regulatory enforcement personnel to conduct warrantless searches in certain contexts where the greater good is at issue (i.e., police sobriety checkpoints, airport TSA scans).

    In a written statement, a Santa Clara County public affairs spokesperson accused the Chapel of taking “out of context analysis of third-party, commercially available aggregate data that was used to respond to Calvary’s own allegations in a lawsuit that Calvary itself filed.”

    In their complaint, Calvary Chapel attorneys assert that the county is arguing in effect “that, as long as they call it research, any level of government can target and spy on any individual or group at any time for any duration and, if they so choose, they can wield the collected data against said individuals or groups who oppose their orders.”

    Marthews, who describes himself as someone who took “the threat of the peak of the current pandemic as having been a very serious one,” said government authorities at the time should nevertheless have recognized ‘the unique constitutional risks” that come with searching houses of worship and curtailing the free exercise of religion, “even in the context of a pandemic.” 

    Public pushback is mounting against the sharing of location data. In a 2022 letter to Congress, numerous privacy and civil liberties groups petitioned for committee hearings on a bill called the Fourth Amendment is Not For Sale Act. The bill, which has a companion in the Senate that was introduced in 2021, would prohibit warrantless government purchases of cell phone location data from third party brokers. It passed unanimously through the House Judiciary Committee, 30-0, in July of this year, and awaits full review by the House. 

    Last month, California passed a law calling for the creation of a mechanism that will allow consumers to demand that every data broker delete their personal information through a single request.

    In the meantime, lawmakers, corporations, officials, and individual citizens are each grappling with the ethical problems presented by the coinciding twin novelties of COVID-19 and location data tracking. “Pandemic, the public good, the emergent nature of the […] technological capabilities,” said Marthews, “is kind of a growing pain as we all kind of find our way through this technology and this pandemic together. I think that may be a fair assessment of this particular case.”

    As for legislation, Schwartz describes himself as optimistic with regard to the eventual passage of the Fourth Amendment is Not for Sale Act. “I think there’s momentum,” he said. “It’s bipartisan.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 21:05

  • Fauci Was 'Smuggled' Into CIA Headquarters To "Influence" Covid-19 Origins Investigation: Select Subcommittee
    Fauci Was ‘Smuggled’ Into CIA Headquarters To “Influence” Covid-19 Origins Investigation: Select Subcommittee

    Dr. Anthony Fauci was smuggled into CIA headquarters, “without a record of entry,” where he “participated in the analysis to “influence” the Agency’s” Covid-19 investigation, according to the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic.

    Fauci’s alleged CIA meeting was revealed in a Tuesday night letter from Subcommittee Chairman Brad Wenstrup (R-OH) to the Inspector General of the US Department of Health and Human Services, which demands documents, communications and other evidence between Fauci and the CIA.

    This allegation is even more interesting in light of a report from two weeks ago that the CIA bribed analysts to say Covid-19 did not originate in a Chinese lab.

    According to a ‘senior-level’ CIA whistleblower, the agency ‘tried to pay off six analysts who found SARS-CoV-2 likely originated in a Wuhan lab if they changed their position and said the virus jumped from animals to humans.’

    “According to the whistleblower, at the end of its review, six of the seven members of the Team believed the intelligence and science were sufficient to make a low confidence assessment that COVID-19 originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China,” reads the letter from Wenstrup.

    “The seventh member of the Team, who also happened to be the most senior, was the lone officer to believe COVID-19 originated through zoonosis.

    “The whistleblower further contends that to come to the eventual public determination of uncertainty, the other six members were given a significant monetary incentive to change their position,” the letters continue, adding that the analysts were “experienced officers with significant scientific expertise.”

    Wenstrup and Turner also asked for documents and communications between the CIA and other federal agencies, including the State Department, FBI, the Department of Health and Human Services and the Energy Department.

    In a separate letter, the House committee leaders identified former CIA Chief Operating Officer Andrew Makridis as having “played a central role” in the COVID investigation and asked him to sit for a transcribed interview. -NY Post

    In June, the US Intelligence Community declassified a 10-page report on COVID origins, in which it found “biosafety concerns” and “genetic engineering” taking place in Wuhan, but that most of its “agencies assess that SARS-CoV-2 was not genetically engineered.”

    As the Committee noted on Tuesday;

    Dr. Fauci’s questionable presence at the CIA, coupled with recently uncovered evidence that he, Dr. Fauci, “prompted” the drafting of “Proximal Origin” — the infamous paper that was used to attempt to “disprove” the lab leak theory — lends credence to heightened concerns about the promotion of a false COVID-19 origins narrative by multiple federal government agencies.

    Chairman Wenstrup is seeking all documents and communications related to Dr. Fauci’s access to CIA facilities and CIA employees as it relates to these allegations. Also, after becoming aware of additional information, the Select Subcommittee is requesting Special Agent Brett Rowland appear for a transcribed interview regarding Dr. Fauci’s purported movements to and from the CIA. As mounting evidence continues to imply that federal government officials covered-up the origins of COVID-19, investigating any improper influence will ensure future accountability of not only the intelligence community, but also public health officials.

    Amazing…

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 20:45

  • Hunter Biden Used Dad's Classified Doc House For $250K Chinese Wire Transfer
    Hunter Biden Used Dad’s Classified Doc House For $250K Chinese Wire Transfer

    Hunter Biden used his Dad’s Delaware home where classified documents were found strewn about the garage to receive more than $250,000 in Chinese wire transfers, according to the House Oversight Committee.

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    The wires were from Wang Xin and Jonathan Li, the latter of whom ran a Chinese private equity fund (BHR) which Hunter was listed as being on the board of directors. Hunter also arranged for a meeting between Li and Joe Biden while Joe was VP, while Joe allegedly gave Li’s son a letter of recommendation.

    Here’s the breakdown of events from the Committee:

    2009-2017: During his time as Vice President and prior to later payments to Hunter Biden, evidence shows Joe Biden developed a familiar relationship with Jonathan Li. Devon Archer, a Biden business associate, described how Joe Biden met with Jonathan Li for coffee in Beijing, China, had a phone call with him, and wrote college recommendation letters for his children.

    April 25, 2019: Joe Biden announced his candidacy in the 2020 presidential election.

    July 26, 2019: Wang Xin wired $10,000 with Joe Biden’s home listed on the wire.

    August 2, 2019: Jonathan Li wired $250,000 with Joe Biden’s home listed on the wire.

    October 13, 2019: George Mesires, who served as Hunter Biden’s lawyer, stated, in part, that Hunter Biden served with BHR “only as a member of its board of directors,” which was purportedly an “unpaid position.”

    October 22, 2020: During a presidential debate, Joe Biden said, “My son has not made money […] in China.”

    Of note, Hunter was living at the Wilmington house while he was raking in millions of dollars from CCP-linked business dealings.

    Hunter was living there…

    Seamus Bruner  (researcher for legendary bombshell-dropper Peter Schweizer), reports via Breitbart News, that “While addicted to drugs, cavorting with prostitutes, and making deals with businessmen tied to the highest levels of Chinese intelligence, Hunter Biden lived in the house where Joe Biden stored classified documents.”

    Second, the Washington Free Beacon reported in January that photos from Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop place him at the Wilmington House in July, 2017. Of note, the classified documents were reportedly brought to the house in January of that year.

    The photos ‘are the most concrete evidence to date’ that Hunter – who was actively negotiating a deal with a CCP-linked Chinese energy company – had access to areas of his father’s home where classified documents were stored.

    A Washington Free Beacon review of the laptop found four 2017 photographs of Hunter Biden, clad in a white collared shirt and a camouflage baseball cap, behind the wheel of his father’s 1967 Corvette Stingray. GPS metadata embedded in the photos indicate they were taken within a minute of each other at 6:49 p.m. on July 30 of that year, just outside the president’s Wilmington, Del., residence. The photos show Hunter Biden posing in the vehicle beside two young girls. One appears to be his then-12-year-old niece, Natalie Biden. The other could not be identified.

    And as the Beacon further reports – corroborating Breitbart‘s reporting, “At the time the photos were taken, Hunter Biden was negotiating a lucrative business deal with the now-defunct Chinese energy conglomerate CEFC, which was closely tied to the Chinese government. Biden’s former business partner Tony Bobulinski claimed to have met with Joe Biden in person in early May 2017—less than three months before Hunter Biden was pictured taking the wheel of his father’s prized vehicle—to discuss the Biden family’s Chinese business dealings.”

    In total, CEFC paid Hunter Biden $6 million in legal and consulting fees in 2017 and 2018.

    So, lies upon lies from the Bidens.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 20:25

  • Trump Defends Lindsey Graham After Boos At South Carolina Rally
    Trump Defends Lindsey Graham After Boos At South Carolina Rally

    Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    President Donald Trump defended Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) after attendees booed the Republican senator at a campaign event in South Carolina.

    Former President Donald Trump speaks to a crowd during a campaign rally in Summerville, South Carolina on Sept. 25, 2023. (Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

    Speaking to a crowd of several hundred at Sportsman Boats in Summerville, South Carolina on Sept. 25, President Trump was introduced by Gov. Henry McMaster, one of the earliest political figures to endorse President Trump’s re-election bid.

    Before turning to his speech, President Trump opened with remarks about several well-known South Carolina figures—including Mr. Graham, a controversial figure among Republicans with some believing he is too left-wing.

    “[A] man who’s always there, I tell you what, when I need help on the left, he’s great,” President Trump said. “And he’s my friend too—Lindsey Graham.”

    At this, the crowd erupted into boos, indicative of the dissatisfaction many South Carolina Republicans have long expressed with Mr. Graham.

    President Trump, however, defended Mr. Graham, an erstwhile critic turned ally to the president.

    “No, no,” President Trump responded to the boos. “He helps me on the left. We need help sometimes. Republicans shouldn’t need help, but he helps them.”

    At this, the crowd gave a mixed reaction, with some cheering while others maintained their jeers.

    After the event, some rally-goers commented on Mr. Graham.

    “Well, he’s a mixed bag, and everybody knows it,” Charles Hughes of Charleston said.

    “The problem with him is we’re often voting against the lesser of two evils,” Mr. Hughes said. “And that’s the way a lot of people look at him. I mean, you want to have Republicans [in Congress] because sometimes he will vote that way.”

    But Mr. Hughes added, “I think he goes with the flow of the day.”

    Seth Hughes, his son, called Mr. Graham “a fear-monger,” citing past statements the senator made about foreign policy.

    Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) during a Senate Judiciary hearing about sanctuary jurisdictions on Capitol Hill in Washington on Oct. 22, 2019. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

    Kevin Martin called Mr. Graham “a little old-fashioned in some of his thinking.”

    Mr. Martin said he believes in term limits, adding that Mr. Graham should have left office under such a restriction before now under an ideal regime.

    Jabs at Haley

    Other comments President Trump made were better received by the audience, including remarks he made contrasting Mr. McMaster with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

    “[McMaster] is a great governor,” President Trump said.

    “He kept this place open, but he really kept it open,” he said, a clear jab at Mr. DeSantis, who has touted his COVID-19 record for credit among Republicans.

    “What a great governor [McMaster’s] been,” President Trump said.

    “It’s one of the reasons I got her out of here, so I could make him governor of the state,” he added, a reference to his decision to appoint Ms. Haley as the United States ambassador to the United Nations. “I never said that.”

    Republican presidential candidate and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley speaks at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, on Aug. 12, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    “That was a big deal—let her move and get Henry there,” President Trump said. “People were very happy about it.”

    Here, the crowd cheered.

    At the time that she stepped down to serve at the U.N., Ms. Haley had two years left in her second term. In recent years, however, she’s been an outspoken critic of the former president.

    “Henry was with me in the campaign early on,” he said. “I thought she’d be with me, but she went a different way.”

    Voters at the event expressed mixed feelings on Ms. Haley, a popular governor who brought rich economic benefits to the state but who many say is not ready for the White House.

    John Peterson, a resident of North Charleston, South Carolina, said, “I like Nikki Haley, but it’s not her time.”

    “She seems to be for this war in Ukraine, and a lot of conservatives aren’t for this,” he added, a reference to Ms. Haley’s outspoken support for continued U.S. support of the Eastern European nation in its battle against Russia.

    “It just seems like we’re funding this war by thousands of times more than any other country. And I just think we don’t have accountability as to where this money is going.”

    Thayer Arthur and Maryellen Arthur, residents of Summerville, said they liked Ms. Haley but said this was “not at all” her year to seek the White House.

    “This year, it’s Trump, period,” Mr. Arthur said.

    Craig Frazier also expressed concerns about Ms. Haley on another level.

    “When I hear her talk, she still can’t get rid of that politician speak,” he said.

    Danny Knox said he likes that Ms. Haley “stood up to Trump” but expressed more interest in President Trump, citing his record in the White House.

    Notably absent from President Trump’s comments was Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), South Carolina’s junior senator.

    U.S. Senator and 2024 Republican Presidential hopeful Tim Scott speaks at the Republican Party of Iowa’s 2023 Lincoln Dinner at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa, on July 28, 2023. (Sergio Flores/AFP via Getty Images)

    While Mr. Scott currently has his own bid for the White House, many observers think his goal is to set himself up as a possible vice presidential pick for the eventual Republican nominee.

    Though he’s been tight-lipped on whether he’d consider Mr. Scott, President Trump has expressed deep respect for him—a rarity among President Trump’s current rivals for the nomination.

    South Carolina holds the third presidential contest in the country and the first in the South.

    The state, a must-win for Ms. Haley and Mr. Scott’s presidential aspirations, will hold its primary election on Feb. 24, 2024.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 20:05

  • Musk Warns Biden-Backed 40% UAW Pay-Hike Risks Big 3 Bankruptcy (Again)
    Musk Warns Biden-Backed 40% UAW Pay-Hike Risks Big 3 Bankruptcy (Again)

    Update (1450ET):

    Elon Musk is correct. The risk of UAW’s 40% pay hike for its 150,000 members at the “Big Three” US automakers – General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler – could send them spiraling into bankruptcy once again. 

    Musk said while responding to our post, “They want a 40% pay raise *and* a 32-hour workweek. Sure way to drive GM, Ford, and Chrysler bankrupt in the fast lane.”

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    The last time the automotive industry was in a crisis was when Biden was vice president. During that time, automakers received a bailout from then-President Obama.

    Even the corporate press has had to admit that Tesla benefits from the union chaos in Detroit. 

    *   *   * 

    Update (1335ET): 

    A reporter asked Biden: “Mr. President, should the UAW get a 40% [pay] increase?”

    The president responded: “Yes.” 

    Here is the moment when President Biden expressed agreement that the UAW’s demands for a 40% pay hike over a new four-year contract with automakers should be considered.

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    To confirm we understood what bumbling Biden said in the video, Bloomberg also verified this.

    We have noted that the auto industry workforce is set to contract in the years ahead under Biden’s Green New Deal as manufacturers pivot towards EVs that require fewer workers. 

    Also, Morgan Stanley’s auto strategist, Adam Jonas, recently warned clients that a surge in labor inflation among automakers could complicate the math for onshoring production in the US.

    But beyond the 1-time losses, Jonas says he is much more concerned about the potential for 30 to 40% labor inflation over the life of the next 4-year contract and how the domestic auto companies may recalibrate their ROIC and payback math for EV onshoring. The MS strategist thinks the outcome will be greater austerity and focus on the ICE run-off (that, however, would make many more workers redundant as EVs require far less mechanical intervention than ICEs).

    One River CIO, Eric Peters, said if UAW Boss Shawn Fain’s demands are met, the average hourly wage for union members would be north of $136. 

    Detroit automaker unionized labor costs, including wages and benefits, are estimated at an average of $66/hour. That compares with $45 at Tesla, which isn’t unionized, and $55 for Asian automakers.

    Meeting all of Fain’s initial demands would boost average hourly labor costs to an estimated $136/hour.

    Fein claims to be matching the roughly 40% compensation gains automaker CEOs have realized in the past decade. Ford’s CEO made $22mm last year. Stellantis’s $24.8mm. GM’s nearly $29mm.

    … and another problem: the consumer will have to pay even higher prices after automakers pass-through all the wage increases. 

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    It’s unprecedented for the president to walk the picket line. Presidents historically avoid strikes and usually act as mediators. 

    Does the White House even understand how inflation is created? 

    *   *   * 

    Update (1308ET):

    President Biden and UAW Boss Shawn Fain arrive at picket lines. 

    *   *   * 

    Update (1230 ET):

    Biden lands in Detroit. 

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    No EVs in Biden’s motorcade. 

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    On the twelfth day of strikes, President Biden plans to stand with striking United Auto Workers members on the picket lines in Wayne County, Michigan, a day before a scheduled visit to the state by former President Trump. 

    Reuters said Biden will join UAW members in Wayne County around 1200 ET on Tuesday. Sources said UAW boss Shawn Fain is also expected to join the most pro-union president in history. 

    On Monday, Biden said, “I think the UAW gave up an incredible amount back when the automobile industry was going under [GFC]. They gave everything from their pensions on, and they saved the automobile industry.” 

    “Now that the industry is roaring back they should participate in the benefits,” the president added.

    Remember, Biden was VP when former President Obama bailed out the auto industry over a decade ago. 

    Erik Loomis, a University of Rhode Island professor and an expert on labor history, told AP News that Biden standing at the picket lines is “absolutely unprecedented. No president has ever walked a picket line before.” 

    Loomis said presidents historically “avoided direct participation in strikes. They saw themselves more as mediators. They did not see it as their place to directly intervene in a strike or in labor action.”

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    The ongoing strike has yet to reach a resolution for a new labor agreement between the union and Detroit’s Big Three: Ford, GM, and Stellantis. UAW is demanding approximately a 40% wage increase over a new four-year contract along with a 32-hour work week, while the automakers are proposing around 20%.

    Ford announced on Sunday that there were still “significant gaps to close” in negotiations with the union. A recent Deutsche Bank note shows the union and automakers are still far apart. 

    The latest data from The New York Times shows about 12% of the 150,000-member union is on strike, equivalent to about 18,300 workers. Strikes are nationwide. 

    And on Wednesday, Trump is expected to address hundreds of workers at a non-union auto supplier in a Detroit suburb. 

    Meanwhile, there are strikes at Tesla – the most American-made automobile. 

    *  *  * 

    Watch Live:

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 19:50

  • Victoria's Secret Unveils 'More Diverse' Fashion Show After Billion-Dollar Backlash
    Victoria’s Secret Unveils ‘More Diverse’ Fashion Show After Billion-Dollar Backlash

    With its stock price at record lows…

    …and sales down a stunning $1.8 billion since 2018 (revenue for its last full fiscal year fell 6.5%, with net income down nearly half)…

    Victoria’s Secret has certainly paid the ‘Bud Light’ price for its ‘Go Woke, Get Broke’ business model shift away from ‘sexy’ lingerie to more “culturally relevant” marketing (code for plus sized women, transgender models, and androgynous fashion).

    The decision to abandon their much-watched “Fashion Show” – giving in to social justice warriors, many of whom live at home and don’t even have the discretionary income to buy their products anyway – was apparently not a good business decision, and has left a string of failed executives in its wake, most infmaously, Amy Hauk, the leader who was named head of the Victoria’s Secret brand in 2022 and touted ambitious plans to rebuild its product offerings… who then announced her departure after six months.

    Despite SJWs pointing in 2019 to the sales decline as proof that the company had an image problem that was alienating customers, it seems more likely that coupled with consumers abandoning malls, where the retailer is massively exposed, it was more likely that the twin trends of e-commerce and fast fashion chipped away at the company’s profits.

    Victoria’s Secret is still the dominant lingerie brand in the US, but the gap has shrunk as upstarts took advantage of its weakness. Sales at American Eagle Outfitters Inc.’s Aerie brand have grown 88% since the pandemic began, hitting $1.5 billion last year. Kim Kardashian’s Skims label is on pace to hit nearly $900 million in annual sales, according to a person familiar with the matter, and executives are planning to open physical stores.

    “Brand turnarounds don’t happen overnight,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton.

    “Abercrombie took a decade to turn around — Victoria’s Secret is at that 10-year mark, too. Makes you wonder, are they at a turning point?”

    And having been unable to dig itself out of this woke-hell-hole, Bloomberg is reporting that Victoria’s Secret is trying another tack: Revamping the televised fashion show that was a marketing marvel in its 2000s heyday.

    Bloomberg’s Olivia Rockeman and Kim Bhasin make clear hos they feel about the revamp of the fashion show: just the latest example of how much Victoria’s Secret clings to a past that it is ostensibly trying to leave behind.

    “We think Victoria’s Secret has a partially formed view of what it does not want to be, but it does not yet have anywhere near a full view of what it wants to become,” Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Plc, said in a note to clients on Aug. 30.

    “As such, it is stuck in some kind of blurry netherworld.”

    As Bloomberg reports, The Victoria’s Secret World Tour, a feature-length film that is slated to air Tuesday on Amazon’s Prime Video streaming service, is a bid to recapture some of the retailer’s Angel wings-era luster while incorporating more diverse models and designers.

    And it’s those last few words that Bloomberg uses to describe the event that has us wondering, will today’s show leave viewers needing “happy tissues or sad tissues…”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 19:45

  • First-Ever Filming Of Singapore's Gold Reserves In Super-Secret Gold Vault
    First-Ever Filming Of Singapore’s Gold Reserves In Super-Secret Gold Vault

    Submitted by BullionStar.us

    Singapore’s Channel News Asia (CNA) recently published a fascinating new documentary film about Singapore’s national reserve assets, including Singapore’s famed monetary gold reserves.

    One tonne of gold bars in BullionStar’s gold vault in Singapore

    The CNA documentary includes a segment featuring BullionStar’s CEO Luke Chua in BullionStar’s vault visually explaining what 1 tonne of gold looks like, to illustrate the magnitude of Singapore’s gold reserves.

    The CNA documentary team also obtained access to the secret gold vault of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore’s central bank, where more than half of Singapore’s official gold reserves appear to be stored. This is the first time ever that Singapore’s gold reserves have been filmed inside the MAS central bank gold vault.

    Singapore’s central bank holds 225.4 tonnes of gold, making it the 24th largest sovereign gold holder in the world. Up until March 2021, MAS held 127.4 tonnes of gold, and had not bought gold for many years.

    But then Singapore’s central bank went on a gold buying spree, buying 26.4 tonnes of gold bars between April and May 2021 (see here), and then adding another 73.6 tonnes of gold bars between January and July 2023. See here.

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    In total, that was 100 tonnes of gold added to Singapore’s gold reserves over just 2 years, which in percentage terms was a massive 77% increase compared to early 2021.

    In fact, the rate of gold accumulation by Singapore’s central bank during early 2023 was so intense that MAS earned the distinction of being the world’s largest central gold buyer in Q1 2023, during which it bought 68.7 tonnes of gold.

    While Singapore’s gold reserves have a market value of approximately SGD 18.8 billion, this represents less than 5% of MAS’s total reserve assets, which in total are worth about SGD 400 billion. The rest of the reserve assets of Singapore’s central bank, which consist of holdings of securities (bonds and stocks) and foreign currencies, are also, along with the 225.4 tonnes of gold, managed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

    Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) headquarters, Singapore

    In addition, Singapore has two additional state sovereign investment funds. One is the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC), a Singapore government-owned company which manages Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund. The other is Temasek,  a Singapore government-owned global investment company. GIC invests globally in equities, bonds and real. estate. Temasek invests in equities, but also owns entire companies across the world, and has an investment portfolio worth SGD 400 billion. Both of these national investment funds are also profiled in the CNA program.

    The CNA documentary, which is titled “Singapore Reserves: The Untold Story | Singapore Reserves Revealed”, can be viewed on the CNA Insider channel on YouTube here.

    The segment featuring BullionStar’s CEO in BullionStar precious metals vault, and which also features footage from the MAS gold vault, runs from approximately minutes 11:46 until 15:35. That segment can be seen here.

    The MAS Secret Gold Vault in Singapore

    Near the beginning of the CNA documentary, the narrator states that Singapore’s central bank (MAS) granted the CNA team exclusive access to the MAS secret gold vault, on condition that CNA signed an undertaking to keep the location of the vault secret. This narration is accompanied by a shot of a one page document titled ‘Undertaking to Safeguard Official Information’ which invokes Singapore’s Official Secrets Act, and which the CNA documentary producer and crew had to sign as an undertaking with MAS not to reveal the location of the vault to anyone.

    CNA documentary producer standing in the MAS gold vault in Singapore. Location not disclosed. Source

    CNA also says that its crew (which consisted of a cameraman and a producer) chose to be blindfolded and were driven in a ‘super secretive trip’ to a secret location in Singapore where the vault is located. This is very reminiscent of another filmed visit to a gold vault in 2011, when CNBC’s Bob Pisani and his crew were supposedly blindfolded (maybe for dramatic effect) and driven to an undisclosed location in London to visit the HSBC gold vault which stores the gold bars of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).

    Fast forward to 2023, and the recent video footage from the MAS gold vault which is included in the CNA documentary spans just 41 seconds between minutes 14:12 and 14:46 of the video, and for a few seconds again between 15:21 and 15:26. However, the CNA video segment (which can be seen directly below) is very interesting and reveals plenty of information about Singapore’s gold holdings, which we will analyse here.

    The opening shot shows the CNA producer standing in a large open plan vault space among towering racks of steel trays that contain large Good Delivery (400 oz) gold bars. When the producer takes her blindfold off, she appears genuinely surprised and in awe to be viewing huge quantities of 400 oz gold bars.

    The large open space where Singapore’s gold is stored has a ceiling about 4 metres high, with air-conditioning, a sprinkler system and light fittings, and is probably underground, presumably in a basement level of a building.

    According to the narrator, and confirmed visually in the video, “each tray contains up to 20 gold bars”. From the video footage, each tray contains two rows of 8 bars each, and 4 more bars in the middle, i.e. 20 bars per tray.

    “Each bar is worth close to USD 800,000” says the narrator, which is true because they are London Good Delivery gold bars (approx. 400 ozs per bar @ USD 2000 per oz).

    Historic 128 tonnes of Gold stored in Singapore

    The trays (each with 20 gold bars) are stacked 8 trays high to form what we’ll call a ‘Stack’. Each stack therefore contains 2 tonnes of gold.

    The video shows that in the MAS gold vault, there are various rows of these ‘Stacks’ (comprising eight trays full of gold bars), and these stacks have been positioned in long lines to form walking spaces or corridors in between the lines of stacks. These rows of stacks are between 10 – 12 stacks in length, and some rows are positioned back-to-back to form double rows. There are also additional stacks of trays that have been placed in some of the spaces of the ‘corridors’.

    Even though the CNA narrator says that they are in “a vault, the size of which we can’t disclose”, it is possible to estimate the size, from observing the CNA video footage, and then creating an approximate ‘floorplan’ of the MAS gold vault, complete with the arrangements of the stacks of metal trays containing the gold bars.

    This floorplan can be seen in the diagram below, where each ‘X’ represents a ‘Stack’ of 8 trays of gold. Each stack therefore contains 160 Good Delivery gold bars, i.e. 2 tonnes.

    Graphic estimating the layout of the MAS gold vault based on the CNA video from minutes 14:12 to 14:46 – which results in an estimate of 128 tonnes of gold stored.

    On the left hand side, there are two rows of stacks, back-to-back, with 11 stacks in one row and 12 in the other row. Then there is a corridor, but there is one stack positioned at the end of this corridor. To the rights of this are two further rows of stacks, each 11 stacks long. Then there is a corridor and one final row of stacks (10 stacks long) to the right. But within this corridor there have been placed another 7 stacks. In total that is 64 stacks of trays.

    At 2 tonnes of gold per stacks, this would mean that 64 stacks of trays (each stacks holding 160 gold bars) would equal 128 tonnes of gold. Recall that up to early 2021, Singapore held 127.42 tonnes of gold bars, a gold holding which had not changed in many years. Bingo!

    Given that the CNA video shows a vault which appears to hold 128 tonnes of gold bars, it therefore appears that the gold vault which MAS recently showed to Channel News Asia is holding all of the historical 127.4 tonnes of gold which Singapore purchased many years ago.

    South African Rand Refinery Gold Bars

    This hypothesis is backed up by the fact that all the gold bars in the video where the bar refinery ‘brand’ is visible are gold bars from South Africa’s Rand Refinery. This is very relevant since the first gold purchase which Singapore’s government made was in 1968 when Singapore’s finance minister at that time, Dr Goh Keng Swee, along with his senior adviser Ngiam Tong Dow, transacted a deal with the South African government to buy 100 tonnes of gold which was then delivered to Switzerland. See the last section of the BullionStar article here for details.

    Showcase in the GIC (Sovereign Wealth Fund) Office in Singapore commemorating Singapore’s first gold purchase of 100 tonnes in 1968 – “A Torn Dollar Bill And Gold For Singapore”

    This 100 tonnes of gold seems to have then subsequently been transported from Switzerland to Singapore at some unspecified time in the past.

    There is also evidence that the Rand Refinery gold bars appearing in the CNA video have not been fabricated recently, since there is no year of manufacture stamped on any of them.

    According to the authoritative 2014 Gold Bars Worldwide report on Rand Refinery Gold Bars (written by Nigel Deesbrock for Grendon International Research), all 400 oz Rand Refinery gold bars have had year of manufacture stamped on them since 2008.

    Rand Refinery Good Delivery gold bar – Serial number OC 1064, fineness 9965. Source

    Also, the Rand Refinery Good Delivery gold bars in the video, where the purity stamp is visible, show gold purities (fineness) of 9965 (bar OC 1064) and 9958 (bar LQ 1807), meaning they contain 99.65% and 99.58% gold purity respectively.

    However, and this is very relevant, all Rand Refinery Good Delivery gold bars have been fabricated with a fineness of 9999 for many years now, and since that time, their serial numbers have consisted of a sequence of numbers without letters.

    Two Rand Refinery Good Delivery Gold Bars – Serial numbers LQ1807 and LQ 664. Source

    If 128 tonnes of Gold is in Singapore – Where are the other 98 tonnes?

    Therefore, all of these Rand Refinery gold bars featured in the video footage from the secret MAS gold vault in Singapore are quite old and have gold purities a little less than 99.99%. All of this therefore points to the fact that the gold which CNA recently filmed in the MAS vault in Singapore is the 127.4 tonnes of gold which Singapore accumulated many years ago.

    This then raises the question as to where are the more recent 98 tonnes of gold bars which Singapore’s central bank purchased between 2021 – 2023. If these gold bars were purchased in the London Gold Market at the Bank of England’s gold vaults (which is likely), then these bars are probably still being stored in London. If this is the case, then the question should be asked of MAS as to whether this gold is in fully allocated and segregated from, or has this gold been lent out to the bullion banks of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), in which case it should be classified as a ‘gold receivable’.

    If this recently purchased gold has in fact already been brought back (repatriated) to Singapore by MAS, then is there another part of Singapore’s secret gold vault which the CNA documentary did not film?

    As to where the secret gold vault of Singapore’s central bank is located, that remains a mystery. It could be in the basement of a government-owned or government-occupied building in Singapore’s financial district, or there again it could be in a more secure location, such as in one of Singapore’s military bases or air bases, a number of which are dotted across the island of Singapore.

    Given that the MAS gold vault is rumoured to be guarded by members of the elite Singapore Police Force Gurkhas contingent, a contingent which is described on the Police website as a “world-class security unit”, that is employed “across the spectrum of para-military operations to help safeguard Singapore” – then perhaps the MAS gold vault could be located near the grounds of one of Singapore’s Police headquarters or divisional headquarters.

    Following the video footage of the gold bars in the secret MAS gold vault, the CNA documentary switches back to BullionStar CEO Luke Chua who explains that:

    “Gold’s true value really shines during times of uncertainty, in times of crisis. During times of crisis, the value of the other reserve assets will tend to fall.

    Gold has been tested across centuries, across thousands of years, and has still proven to be a good store of value.”

    Luke concludes by elegantly explaining that Singapore’s government did indeed make a shrewd investment when it purchased its first 100 tonnes of gold in 1968 at a price of US $40 per troy ounce, since the gold price today is nearing US $2000 per troy ounce. That’s 50 times more than the purchase price.

    This article was originally published on the BullionStar.us website under the same title “First ever filming of Singapore’s Gold Reserves in Super-Secret Gold Vault”.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 19:25

  • Johns Hopkins Gets 'Ratioed' On X For Pushing "Microstamping" Firearms 
    Johns Hopkins Gets ‘Ratioed’ On X For Pushing “Microstamping” Firearms 

    The Center for Gun Violence Solutions (CGVS) at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health is advocating for the utilization of “microstamping” technology on firearms. They believe a firing pin that imprints a unique serial number on the cartridge could be one solution to end gun violence. 

    “Microstamping imprints a code on a bullet’s cartridge case each time a gun is fired—linked to the gun’s serial number—allowing law enforcement to quickly link cartridge cases found at crime scenes to the gun used in a crime,” CGVS posted on X. 

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    However, firing pins are easily removable and swappable in firearms. And what will stop criminals who have already filed down serial numbers on lower receivers from filing down firing pins with microstamping technology?

    Gun advocacy group Firearms Policy Coalition responded to CGVS’ post: “Please keep wasting your time and money on this massive failure of bullshit.”

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    “So, you assume a firing pin can’t be easily changed out, the microstamp code won’t wear down, files must not exist in your dream world, or the basic fact the tech doesn’t work outside of a lab setting. Add in the fact that it can be easily defeated by simply using a brass catcher or scattering someone elses brass,” an X user said. 

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    Maybe the microstamping technology is not entirely about actual gun safety prevention. Instead, as one X user pointed out:

    “You’re forgetting that none of that is actually why they want this. It’s the beginning of making guns so expensive by having all of these added features that only rich people can have them. Eventually they’ll mandate fingerprint scan to operate and other “safety” features like this.” 

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    … and this. 

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    Remember, anti-gunner billionaire Mike Bloomberg has donated billions of dollars to ‘woke’ Johns Hopkins. Bloomberg also backs the anti-gun group Everytown. 

    Billionaire elites like Bloomberg and the radical left have openly waged war on the Second Amendment. Law-abiding Americans have been panicking to purchase firearms as progressive policies in metro areas and on the southern border have failed, sparking the worst migrant and crime crisis this nation has ever experienced. 

    It seems as if Democrats want to disarm law-abiding citizens via executive fiat while their failed policies only embolden criminals. 

    This insanity must stop, and law and order must be revived — or risk a new crime explosion across suburbia (it’s already beginning). 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 19:05

  • Social Security Agency Demands Americans Pay Them Back After Overpaying
    Social Security Agency Demands Americans Pay Them Back After Overpaying

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A bevy of recent reports has indicated that some Americans are receiving demands from the Social Security Administration to repay the agency after they were overpaid on their benefits.

    According to those published reports, the issue tends to arise when the agency overpays people who are receiving workers’ compensation payments. A recent Social Security Administration inspector general’s report (pdf) found that the administration collected about $4.7 billion in repayments in 2022, while about $22 billion remains outstanding.

    For example, an Ohio nursing home worker told KFF News in a recent article that she has multiple health problems, including an artificial heart and cerebral palsy, and was getting about $862 a month and receiving about $1,065 in monthly Social Security disability benefits when she received a letter from the SSA saying she was being overpaid. What’s more, the agency said that it wanted the money back and told her to mail a check with the money in 30 days for about $60,000.

    A Texas woman who spoke to Fox4 TV on Thursday said she received a similar demand from the SSA, saying she was overpaid and wanted the money back. The letter, according to the woman, wanted her to pay about $41,000, although she said an employee admitted to her that a mistake was made.

    “She called me and told me, ‘Yeah, I made the mistake. I’m human,'” Danielle Prisock told Fox4. “I’m human as well, I said, and I didn’t make the mistake.”

    The  Social Security Administration makes payments for a variety of reasons. Benefits are paid based on one’s earnings record if they are aged 62 or older or if one has a disability or enough work credits.

    Agency Responds

    The Epoch Times has not received an SSA comment yet on these reports, but a spokesperson for the agency told multiple local news outlets that it handles overpayments on a case-by-case basis.

    “Social Security is required by law to adjust benefits or recover debts when we establish that someone received payments to which they are not entitled and an overpayment occurs. We must maintain our responsibilities to taxpayers to be good stewards of the trust funds,” the agency spokesperson told the outlet.

    Adding that fewer than 0.5 percent of Social Security payments are overpayments, the spokesperson said that “each person’s situation is unique, and we handle overpayments on a case-by-case basis.”

    “Overpayments can occur for many reasons, such as when a beneficiary does not timely report work or other changes that can affect their benefits,” the SSA spokesperson added. “We continually strive to improve stewardship of our programs and reduce improper payments. While staffing losses and resource constraints have challenged our service delivery, our payment accuracy rates remain very high.”

    What the IG Report Found

    In late 2022, the SSA’s inspector general report said that overpayments or underpayments can occur when the SSA makes “mistakes in computing” or “fails to obtain or act on available information” about the recipient.

    It found that a number of SSA workers “incorrectly input student information on beneficiaries’ records, which resulted in SSA underpaying an estimated 14,470 beneficiaries approximately $59.5 million” in 2022.

    And, according to the IG report, it estimated the SSA “could have avoided approximately 73,000 overpayments totaling more than $368 million if it had effective controls over benefit-computation accuracy.”

    But Rebecca Vallas, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation think tank, suggested that the problem is worse than being reported.

    “We have an overpayment crisis on our hands,” she told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution this month. “Overpayments push already struggling beneficiaries even deeper into poverty and hardship, which is directly counterproductive to the goals of safety-net programs.”

    Jack Smalligan of the Urban Institute, a Washington think tank, told the outlet that most people who are getting overpayments are likely on disability and can’t afford to repay the agency. Some overpayments can also result from an error on the beneficiary’s part, he said.

    Payment Increases Soon?

    As for general Social Security payments, one seniors group estimated that the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will go into effect in January 2024.

    The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the COLA for 2024’s benefits sometime in October, with the increased payments coming next January. The agency uses the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures inflation during the months of July, August, and September before making its decision.

    The Senior Citizens League said last week that the likely Social Security COLA  will be 3.2 percent for benefit payments in 2024. That would average out to about a $57 increase in extra benefits, raising them to about $1,790 for the average recipient, it estimated in a press release.

    The 3.2 percent COLA is far lower than the 8.7 percent that was received for 2023’s payments, which was the highest increase in about four decades, according to the group. However, the estimated 2024 COLA would be higher than the 2.6 percent average over the past 20 years, it said.

    “Inflation was so severe in 2021 and 2022 that the average Social Security benefit fell behind by $1,054, leaving 53 percent of retirees doubting they will recover because household costs rose more than the dollar amount of their COLAs,” Mary Johnson, with the league, told media outlets last week.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 18:45

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Today’s News 26th September 2023

  • Escobar: War Of Economic Corridors – The India-MidEast-Europe Ploy
    Escobar: War Of Economic Corridors – The India-MidEast-Europe Ploy

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

    The India-Middle East-Europe transportation corridor may be the talk of the town, but it will likely go the way of the last three Asia-to-Europe connectivity projects touted by the west – to the dustbin. Here’s why.

    The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a massive public diplomacy op launched at the recent G20 summit in New Delhi, complete with a memorandum of understanding signed on 9 September. 

    Players include the US, India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the EU, with a special role for the latter’s top three powers Germany, France, and Italy. It’s a multimodal railway project, coupled with trans-shipments and with ancillary digital and electricity roads extending to Jordan and Israel. 

    If this walks and talks like the collective west’s very late response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched 10 years ago and celebrating a Belt and Road Forum in Beijing next month, that’s because it is. And yes, it is, above all, yet another American project to bypass China, to be claimed for crude electoral purposes as a meager foreign policy “success.”  

    No one among the Global Majority remembers that the Americans came up with their own Silk Road plan way back in 2010. The concept came from the State Department’s Kurt Campbell and was sold by then-Secretary Hillary Clinton as her idea. History is implacable, it came down to nought.  

    And no one among the Global Majority remembers the New Silk Road plan peddled by Poland, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 2010s, complete with four troublesome trans-shipments in the Black Sea and the Caspian. History is implacable, this too came down to nought.   

    In fact, very few among the Global Majority remember the $40 trillion US-sponsored Build Back Better World (BBBW, or B3W) global plan rolled out with great fanfare just two summers ago, focusing on “climate, health and health security, digital technology, and gender equity and equality.” 

    A year later, at a G7 meeting, B3W had already shrunk to a $600 billion infrastructure-and-investment project. Of course, nothing was built. History really is implacable, it came down to nought. 

    The same fate awaits IMEC, for a number of very specific reasons.

    Map of The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)

    Pivoting to a black void 

    The whole IMEC rationale rests on what writer and former Ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar deliciously described as “conjuring up the Abraham Accords by the incantation of a Saudi-Israeli tango.”

    This tango is Dead On Arrival; even the ghost of Piazzolla can’t revive it. For starters, one of the principals – Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman – has made it clear that Riyadh’s priorities are a new, energized Chinese-brokered relationship with Iran), with Turkey, and with Syria after its return to the Arab League. 

    Moreover, both Riyadh and its Emirati IMEC partner share immense trade, commerce, and energy interests with China, so they’re not going to do anything to upset Beijing.

    At face value, IMEC proposes a joint drive by G7 and BRICS 11 nations. That’s the western method of seducing eternally-hedging India under Modi and US-allied Saudi Arabia and the UAE to its agenda. 

    Its real intention, however, is not only to undermine BRI, but also the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INTSC), in which India is a major player alongside Russia and Iran.  

    The game is quite crude and really quite obvious: a transportation corridor conceived to bypass the top three vectors of real Eurasia integration – and BRICS members China, Russia, and Iran – by dangling an enticing Divide and Rule carrot that promises Things That Cannot Be Delivered. 

    The American neoliberal obsession at this stage of the New Great Game is, as always, all about Israel. Their goal is to make Haifa port viable and turn it into a key transportation hub between West Asia and Europe. Everything else is subordinated to this Israeli imperative. 

    IMEC, in principle, will transit across West Asia to link India to Eastern and Western Europe – selling the fiction that India is a Global Pivot state and a Convergence of Civilizations. 

    Nonsense. While India’s great dream is to become a pivot state, its best shot would be via the already up-and-running INTSC, which could open markets to New Delhi from Central Asia to the Caucasus. Otherwise, as a Global Pivot state, Russia is way ahead of India diplomatically, and China is way ahead in trade and connectivity. 

    Comparisons between IMEC and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are futile.

    IMEC is a joke compared to this BRI flagship project: the $57.7 billion plan to build a railway over 3,000 km long linking Kashgar in Xinjiang to Gwadar in the Arabian Sea, which will connect to other overland BRI corridors heading toward Iran and Turkey. 

    This is a matter of national security for China. So bets can be made that the leadership in Beijing will have some discreet and serious conversations with the current fifth-columnists in power in Islamabad, before or during the Belt and Road Forum, to remind them of the relevant geostrategic, geoeconomic, and investment Facts.

    So, what’s left for Indian trade in all of this? Not much. They already use the Suez Canal, a direct, tested route. There’s no incentive to even start contemplating being stuck in black voids across the vast desert expanses surrounding the Persian Gulf. 

    One glaring problem, for example, is that almost 1,100 km of tracks are “missing” from the railway from Fujairah in the UAE to Haifa, 745 km is “missing” from Jebel Ali in Dubai to Haifa, and 630 km is “missing” from the railway from Abu Dhabi to Haifa. 

    When all the missing links are added up, there’s over 3,000 km of railway still to be built. The Chinese, of course, can do this for breakfast and on a dime, but they are not part of this game. And there’s no evidence the IMEC gang plans to invite them. 

    All eyes on Syunik 

    In the War of Transportation Corridors charted in detail for The Cradle in June 2022, it becomes clear that intentions rarely meet reality. These grand projects are all about logistics, logistics, logistics – of course, intertwined with the three other key pillars: energy and energy resources, labor and manufacturing, and market/trade rules. 

    Let’s examine a Central Asian example. Russia and three Central Asian “stans” – Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – are launching a multimodal Southern Transportation Corridor which will bypass Kazakhstan. 

    Why? After all, Kazakhstan, alongside Russia, is a key member of both the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). 

    The reason is because this new corridor solves two key problems for Russia that arose with the west’s sanctions hysteria. It bypasses the Kazakh border, where everything going to Russia is scrutinized in excruciating detail. And a significant part of the cargo may now be transferred to the Russian port of Astrakhan in the Caspian. 

    So Astana, which under western pressure has played a risky hedging game on Russia, may end up losing the status of a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region. Kazakhstan is also part of BRI; the Chinese are already very much interested in the potential of this new corridor.    

    In the Caucasus, the story is even more complex, and once again, it’s all about Divide and Rule. 

    Two months ago, Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan committed to building a single railway from Iran and its ports in the Persian Gulf through Azerbaijan, to be linked to the Russian-Eastern Europe railway system. 

    This is a railway project on the scale of the Trans-Siberian – to connect Eastern Europe with Eastern Africa and South Asia, bypassing the Suez Canal and European ports. The INSTC on steroids, in fact. 

    Guess what happened next? A provocation in Nagorno-Karabakh, with the deadly potential of involving not only Armenia and Azerbaijan but also Iran and Turkey. 

    Tehran has been crystal clear on its red lines: it will never allow a defeat of Armenia, with direct participation from Turkiye, which fully supports Azerbaijan.

    Add to the incendiary mix are joint military exercises with the US in Armenia – which happens to be a member of the Russian-led CSTO – cast, for public consumption, as one of those seemingly innocent “partnership” NATO programs. 

    This all spells out an IMEC subplot bound to undermine INTSC. Both Russia and Iran are fully aware of the former’s endemic weaknesses: political trouble between several participants, those “missing links” of track, and all important infrastructure still to be built. 

    Turkish Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for his part, will never give up the Zangezur corridor across Syunik, the south Armenian province, which was envisaged by the 2020 armistice, linking Azerbaijan to Turkey via the Azeri enclave of Nakhitchevan – that will run through Armenian territory.

    Baku did threaten to attack southern Armenia if the Zangezur corridor was not facilitated by Yerevan. So Syunik is the next big unresolved deal in this riddle. Tehran, it must be noted, will go no holds barred to prevent a Turkish-Israeli-NATO corridor cutting Iran off from Armenia, Georgia, the Black Sea, and Russia. That would be the reality if this NATO-tinted coalition grabs Syunik. 

    Today, Erdogan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev meet in the Nakhchivan enclave between Turkiye, Armenia, and Iran to start a gas pipeline and open a military production complex.   

    The Sultan knows that Zangezur may finally allow Turkiye to be linked to China via a corridor that will transit the Turkic world, in Azerbaijan and the Caspian. This would also allow the collective west to go even bolder on Divide and Rule against Russia and Iran. 

    Is the IMEC another far-fetched western fantasy? The place to watch is Syunik.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/26/2023 – 02:00

  • Bill Kristol's "Republicans For Ukraine" Ad Says 'War Is Good'
    Bill Kristol’s “Republicans For Ukraine” Ad Says ‘War Is Good’

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    A new group formed to rally GOP support for Ukraine released an ad this weekend that said US spending on the war in Ukraine is good for the US because it “weakens” Russia.

    The ad was made by Republicans for Ukraine, a campaign launched by Defending Democracy Together, an organization led by neoconservative Bill Kristol. The effort comes as support for arming Ukraine is waning among GOP voters, with a recent CNN poll finding 71% of Republicans were against Congress authorizing more Ukraine aid.

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    “When America arms Ukraine, we get a lot for a little. Putin is an enemy of America. We’ve used 5% of our defense budget to arm Ukraine, and with it, they’ve destroyed 50% of Putin’s Army,” the ad says.

    The ad is blunt and does not attempt to frame US support for Ukraine as a fight for democracy as the Biden administration does, and claims hurting Russia will also hurt China.

    “The more Ukraine weakens Russia, the more it also weakens Russia’s closest ally China. America needs to stand strong against our enemies, that’s why Republicans in Congress must continue to support Ukraine,” the ad says.

    Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin used similar language in the early days of the war, saying one of the US goals in Ukraine was to “weaken Russia,” leaving no doubt the conflict is a proxy war.

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    Hawks in Congress have adopted similar talking points to justify more spending on the Ukraine war. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) recently said the US was getting its “money’s worth” in Ukraine because Russia is taking losses and no Americans are dying.

    The argument shows a lack of concern for Ukrainian lives.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 23:40

  • Toymaker Lego Abandons Oil-Free "Breakthrough" Brick As ESG Push Derails 
    Toymaker Lego Abandons Oil-Free “Breakthrough” Brick As ESG Push Derails 

    ‘Woke’ toymaker Lego has discontinued its sustainability effort to manufacture bricks made from recycled plastic. This decision came after discovering recycled plastic was actually contributing to higher carbon emissions, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

    Niels Christiansen, chief executive of Lego, told FT that utilizing recycled polyethylene terephthalate (RPET) for brickmaking would have led to increased carbon emissions over the product’s lifetime. He said the reason was primarily due to the need for new machines. 

    “In the early days, the belief was that it was easier to find this magic material or this new material” that would solve the sustainability issue, Christiansen said, but “that doesn’t seem to be there. We tested hundreds and hundreds of materials. It’s just not been possible to find a material like that.”

    In the summer of 2021, Lego first unveiled a sustainable prototype brick made from recycled plastic sourced from US suppliers. 

    “We are super excited about this breakthrough. The biggest challenge on our sustainability journey is rethinking and innovating new materials that are as durable, strong and high quality as our existing bricks – and fit with LEGO elements made over the past 60 years. With this prototype we’re able to showcase the progress we’re making,” Vice President of Environmental Responsibility at Lego Tim Brooks said in 2021.

    FT pointed out, “Lego has instead decided to try to improve the carbon footprint over time of oil-based ABS, which currently needs about 2kg of petroleum to make 1kg of plastic.” 

    Lego’s sustainability goal to eliminate all petroleum-based plastics from its bricks by 2030 has hit a roadblock. It raises questions about whether the toymaker knew that its ESG objectives were unattainable from the start. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 23:20

  • Vaccination Offers 'No Meaningful Protection' Against Long COVID: Study
    Vaccination Offers ‘No Meaningful Protection’ Against Long COVID: Study

    Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Findings in a new study challenge the mainstream narrative that COVID-19 vaccinations prevent long COVID. The study found that while previous infections reduce the risk of long COVID by 86 percent, vaccination status prior to COVID infection is irrelevant to a person’s risk of developing long COVID.

    “The notion had been that both previous infection as well as vaccination reduce the chances of subsequent long COVID should you become infected,” Dr. William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine and health policy at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told The Epoch Times.

    Syringes of COVID-19 vaccines at a vaccination site in Los Angeles on Feb. 16, 2021. (Apu Gomes/AFP via Getty Images)

    These investigators have poured “cool water” on that concept, he continued.

    Researchers from Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, an over-500-year-old research university in Germany, found that people with the highest risk of long COVID or post-COVID condition, as the authors wrote, were unvaccinated people infected with the Wuhan variant, followed by unvaccinated and vaccinated participants infected with the alpha variant.

    While not explicitly discussed in the study, the study’s diagram and supplementary tables showed that with the exception of infection with the Wuhan variant, unvaccinated people tend to have a slightly lower risk of long COVID than their vaccinated counterparts.

    Furthermore, unvaccinated people infected with the omicron variant had the lowest risk of long COVID.

    “Vaccination offered no meaningful protection against developing PCC [post-COVID condition] in case of an infection. In contrast, there was … strong evidence that a previous infection reduced the risk of PCC,” the authors wrote.

    Based on Online Questionnaire

    Nearly 49,000 people in the German population responded to the survey. Participants were recruited through postal mail. They were then asked to fill out an online questionnaire that included a list of symptoms.

    Participants self-reported if they tested positive for COVID-19 and the symptoms they experienced afterward.

    The study authors asked for symptoms present from the four- to 12-week post-infection window and for symptoms that persisted after the 12th week. Symptoms that did not persist beyond that were not deemed as long COVID.

    Depending on the date of infection, the authors categorized the participant as being infected by the dominant variant at the time.

    “We categorized infections before January 1, 2021 as caused by the Wildtype (Wuhan) variant, infections between January 1, 2021 and June 30, 2021 as caused by the Alpha variant, infections between July 1, 2021 and December 20, 2021 as caused by the Delta variant, and infections from December 21, 2021 as caused by the Omicron variant,” the authors wrote.

    Of all the surveyed people, around 17,000 had at least one COVID-19 infection, with around 2,800 reporting long-COVID symptoms.

    None of the participants in the study was physically examined nor did they present lab tests on their health.

    Doctors are engaged in a debate over the study’s findings and its methodology.

    Many were concerned that the questionnaire was too subjective. Like many large population-based studies, the findings are provocative, “but they’re often not definitive. You have to do other follow-up studies, many of which are much smaller but much more precise, and they eliminate a lot of the uncertainty,” Dr. Schaffner said.

    Dr. Cody Meissner, a professor of pediatrics at the Dartmouth Geisel School of Medicine, argued that the study’s participant is “so heterogeneous” and that he is not sure what to conclude from the study.

    As the study authors admit, none of the participants was given an actual diagnosis of long COVID nor tested for comorbidities. It is possible that any of the patients could have been suffering from another disease that may have been unrelated to COVID-19.

    Long COVID Is Hard to Define

    Another major problem plaguing long-COVID research is that everyone has a different definition of long COVID.

    “There is a post-COVID symptomatology … But I don’t think we understand the biological basis; we can’t define it very clearly. So to make a statement that it was more or less common after certain variants or vaccines is pretty difficult,” Dr. Meissner said.

    Retired associate professor of Brown University Dr. Andrew Bostom agreed that the long-COVID condition is poorly defined in the literature, so it is hard to conclude if the symptoms are long COVID or if it is something else entirely.

    Apart from the loss of smell and taste, all other symptoms that characterize the long-COVID condition can manifest through psychosomatic triggers, Dr. Bostom said.

    The study’s findings “look interesting, particularly to people like me that have been disappointed in how such short shrift was given to natural immunity,” Dr. Bostom, who has extensive experience working on pharmaceutical clinical trials, told The Epoch Times. But it’s hard to conclude prior infection is protective against long COVID “if you’re not really sure what the post-COVID condition is.”

    Study Findings Validate What Some Doctors See

    Dr. Joseph Varon, chief of the Critical Care and COVID-19 Department at the United Memorial Medical Center, told The Epoch Times that he can look past the flaws in the methodology since the study findings validate what he sees in his clinic.

    The study did not discuss if vaccinations put people at risk of long COVID. Its graph showed that the vaccinated cohort tended to have a slightly higher risk of long COVID than the unvaccinated, when they were infected by the same variant.

    Dr. Varon interpreted this to suggest that vaccinations may put people at a greater risk of long COVID, which is what he has been seeing in his clinic.

    “What I’m seeing is that the higher the number of boosters that you have, the more chances … you’re going to have long haul syndrome,” he said, adding that the majority of his long-haul patients are those who took four or more doses of the vaccine rather than those who took up to three doses or were unvaccinated.

    Dr. Varon also found that the study’s findings on the most prevalent symptoms very accurately mirror what he sees in his clinic, with fatigue and cognitive impairment being the most common symptoms among his patients.

    Psychiatrist Dr. Adonis Sfera at Patton State Hospital agreed that the study’s symptoms are mostly representative of what he sees in his clinic, though the primary symptoms are fatigue and shortness of breath.

    He also agreed with the notion that more vaccinations may put people at risk of long-haul symptoms since the vaccinations would induce the production of more spike proteins, which can cause organ damage and symptoms.

    “The vaccines make our cells express the spike antigen. So the more vaccinated you are, the more likely you are to express the antigen,” he said.

    Hide Vaccine Injuries From Scrutiny?

    Nurse practitioner Scott Marsland, who shares the Leading Edge Clinic, a long-COVID and vaccine-injury practice, with pulmonary critical care physician Dr. Pierre Kory, expressed concern that the study findings may hide vaccine injuries from scrutiny.

    “[The paper] helps perpetuate the narrative that … it doesn’t make a difference whether or not [someone] got the vaccine; it’s all about whether or not they got infected and which variant they got,” Mr. Marsland said.

    Long COVID and vaccine injury can share very similar symptoms, but detailed patient records would show that the symptoms appeared after different exposures.

    Mr. Marsland was concerned that the study dismisses the cumulative effects the vaccines may have on patients, which contradicts what he sees in his clinic.

    Some of his patients developed mild symptoms after their first or second shot, but they did not link it temporally to the vaccines until “they got the booster or a second booster” and their symptoms became severe, he said.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 23:00

  • While Hot War Is Raging In Eastern Europe, The Cold War In Asia-Pacific Is Well And Truly Underway
    While Hot War Is Raging In Eastern Europe, The Cold War In Asia-Pacific Is Well And Truly Underway

    By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

    Comprehensive, But Not Strategic

    Equities finished last week lower again as the ‘higher for longer’ narrative continues to be priced in by markets. This despite the Bank of Japan turning the dial a little back towards the dovish side as they left official rates unchanged and dissembled over Governor Ueda’s comments a week or two ago that there may be sufficient evidence of enduring inflation to start lifting rates before the end of the year. Nevertheless, US 10y yields closed the week 10bps higher at 4.43% after briefly touching 4.50% earlier on Friday (the highest since 2007), and crude oil was (mercifully) a little lower, but not by much.

    Shifting to geopolitics, we have seen a number of announcements recently of countries entering into ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’. The United States and Vietnam elevated their relationship to a CSP in early September, as did Australia and the Philippines. Back in July, China raised alarm in the Asia-Pacific by entering into a CSP with the Solomon Islands and they have done so again by entering into a similar agreement with Timor-Leste over the weekend.

    Part of the agreement with Timor-Leste involves the latter’s recognition of the One China Principle, which carries with it a declaration by Timor-Leste that Taiwan is an “inalienable part of China’s territory and [we] oppose any forms of ‘Taiwan Independence’”. The quid pro quo here is that Timor-Leste gets to participate in the largesse promised by Xi Xinping’s Belt and Road initiative, and perhaps enjoy the Schadenfreude of watching the foreign affairs and defence establishment in Canberra squirm about as China places itself firmly between US naval bases in Guam, Hawaii and the Marshall Islands and Australia’s northern approaches.

    So, while the world is quite understandably fixated on the hot war raging in Eastern Europe, the Cold War in the Asia Pacific is well and truly underway, with the major belligerents jockeying for the best strategic positioning. It is in the Asia Pacific where Thucydides Trap will actually play out, or not. Taiwan is undoubtedly the hair trigger, so overt picking of sides on the Taiwan question is a very big deal in the politics of the region.

    The United States has been busy trying to ensure that small countries pick their side, so the G7 belatedly stitched together the B3W initiative back in 2021 as a challenger to Belt and Road. Unfortunately, much has happened since that time and the deficit-wracked budgets of the USA and her (mostly) European allies that make up the G7 have so far not seen fit to provide the promised $600bn of funding to seed infrastructure investments in the developing world.

    A further strategic initiative was announced on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last  week. The ‘Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation’ emphasizes better economic integration for countries along the Atlantic coastline, and perhaps provides a firewall of sorts to the series of coups moving through central Africa towards the Atlantic coast. Crucially, the agreement includes Brazil, a BRICS+ nation that, like India, is becoming more important in global affairs and has to-date been happy to walk on both sides of the street on the USA/China rivalry.

    India itself has been a focus of diplomatic overtures from the G7, but tensions have flared after the Canadian government accused India of assassinating a Sikh separatist leader in British Columbia. This episode undoubtedly creates new headaches for US foreign policy objectives. Former US Defence Department official Michael Rubin pithily described it as “an ant picking a fight with an elephant.”

    So, the overall picture is of a US strategic apparatus spread thin and playing whack-a-mole with geopolitical flare-ups that its allies are not much help in solving. While the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Atlantic provide a distraction for policymakers, China continues to build relationships in the Asia Pacific and Middle East, where fellow BRICS+ nation Saudi Arabia is playing a similar game to Brazil. Europe’s capacity to assist is severely hamstrung by its own economic stagnation (witness the poor PMIs released last week) and modest hard power means. In such an environment, US foreign policy has by necessity become comprehensive, but not strategic.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 22:20

  • Watch: Tucker Carlson Spits Fire In Anti-Abortion Speech
    Watch: Tucker Carlson Spits Fire In Anti-Abortion Speech

    Tucker Carlson gave quite the sermon last Thursday as the key note speaker at a gala fundraiser thrown by the Center for Christian Virtue at the Cleveland Marriott.

    In it, the former Fox News host whose audience just went vertical on “X” railed against abortion, referring to it as ‘human sacrifice’ – a notion which Tucker said is antithetical to the biological drive to continue the human race, and which therefore must have been planted in people’s heads by ‘outside forces.’

    “It’s not a natural human function to want to kill your own children,” said Carlson. “Actually that’s an idea an Impulse that was introduced. Outside forces are acting on people at all times throughout history, in every culture on the planet, to convince people that if they sacrifice their children they will be happy and safe – and that’s exactly what this is,” said Carlson.

    One can’t help but conclude that Carlson’s comments – and those from Ron Paul (from a different angle) – are a direct pushback to a notion floated by former President Donald Trump that Republicans should soften their stance on abortion – perhaps agreeing on a certain number of months during which killing an unborn child is acceptable.

    Carlson starts out lamenting the current state of political discourse vs. those of past decades.

    “For most of that time, the debates that we had in the political sphere were over competing visions for how to improve people’s lives,” he said, using the example of minimum wage – and how both Republicans and Democrats were ” at least pretending to try to improve the lives of the people who voted for them.”

    But now, the two top ballot initiatives now encourage actions Carlson sees as fundamentally destructive: advocating for abortion and drug use.

    “When you wind up in an election with the two top ballot initiatives are one encouraging people to kill their own kids and two encourage their kids to do drugs, who’s benefiting here?” asked Carlson, who argued that these issues are of no benefit to society – and instead erode its very foundation.

    Abortion

    Carlson then segues into abortion, arguing that the left is promoting anti-family values, when “the point of life is to have children and to watch them have grandchildren.”

    “Anyone telling you don’t have children, kill your children, is not your friend, is your enemy,” he continued, adding that the current debate about abortion transcends politics; it is a spiritual battle. No longer confined to discussions about unwanted pregnancies resulting from unfortunate circumstances, the contemporary narrative, according to Carlson, posits that the left has championed abortion as a pathway to joy in itself.

    Carlson also took a shot at the Episcopal Church, which he ‘grew up’ in, but which “crumbled around us and became this very aggressively Pagan institution.”

    Watch:

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 22:00

  • China's Shipbuilding Capacity More Than 200 Times Greater Than US: Leaked Navy Slide
    China’s Shipbuilding Capacity More Than 200 Times Greater Than US: Leaked Navy Slide

    By J.M.Phelps of The Epoch Times

    A leaked U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) slide is garnering concern about the Chinese regime’s continued capability to produce naval vessels at an alarmingly faster rate than the United States.

    Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (C) participates in military drills in the South China Sea on Jan. 2, 2017

    The leaked graphic depicts shipyards in China as being able to build new naval vessels at a rate that’s 232 times greater than that of the United States. The ONI confirmed its authenticity to The Drive, which first published the slide.

    This outsized capacity to support China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has caused some analysts to raise the alarm that the United States won’t be able to close the gap for many years to come.

    Retired Capt. James Fanell, a former director of intelligence and information operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, doesn’t share the same level of pessimism, although he does acknowledge the challenges involved in rebuilding the United States’ shipbuilding capacity.

    He says closing the gap with the Chinese regime will require “a dramatic shift in the policy of unaccountable engagement that now characterizes the Biden administration.”

    “The challenges are also greater than just political will,” Mr. Fanell told The Epoch Times. “There is an issue of America’s shipbuilding industry that has gone into disrepair since WWII.”

    Despite a few political hurdles, “America is a nation of optimism and the can-do attitude that will be essential to any effort to close that gap,” he said.

    According to the ONI, the Chinese regime’s navy consisted of 355 vessels in 2020, while the United States had 296 vessels. By 2035, China is expected to reach an estimated 475 ships, while the United States would reach 305 to 317.

    “While U.S. Navy leadership is concerned about the growth and capabilities of the PLA Navy, what has not happened is that any single U.S. Navy Admiral resigns their commission over the lack of response to this threat to America’s national security,” Mr. Fanell said.

    “The recent ONI slide is a stark reminder of the cataclysmic decline in the U.S. shipbuilding industry, one that the United States dominated just 80 years ago during World War II. America became a great power because it was a seafaring nation, and we will suffer defeat the more we deny this history.

    “In 1949, more than a dozen U.S. Navy admirals were willing to put their careers on the line to speak out about what they felt was a dangerous approach to defeating the USSR with just strategic bomber aircraft.

    “Their willingness to put national security before their careers paid off as the U.S. Navy laid the foundations for creating a nuclear aircraft carrier fleet that ruled the waves of the globe for the next 60 years and ensured the safety and prosperity of America, our allies, and even our enemies.”

    How to Close the Gap

    Mr. Fanell says Congress must pass and fund similar legislation to the Two-Ocean Navy Act that was passed in 1940 and allowed the country to increase its naval presence and capabilities in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

    “The similarities between the strategic environment today and 1940 are too great to ignore,” he said.

    For example, Russia has invaded Ukraine—threatening Europe—while the Chinese regime continues to conduct large-scale operations with warships and aircraft around Taiwan and into the Philippine Sea, Mr. Fanell said.

    “America’s ingenuity should be unleashed to build up our fleet of warships,” he said.

    “For instance, we should be able to build a fleet of unmanned warships, along with equipping our existing mothball fleet with supersonic/hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles that could turn these retired combatants into arsenal ships that could be used to sink the People’s Liberation Army Navy invasion fleet.”

    “It’s disturbing how ill-informed and naive the average American is on China,” U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Michael Studeman said (pdf) during a presentation at a naval conference in February.

    Americans are “ignorant of the threat from the [People’s Republic of China] and their Navy,” Mr. Fanell said.

    But he doesn’t blame the American people.

    Continue reading here.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 21:40

  • Southern Border Hit With 'Single Highest Daily' Migrant Encounters As Chaos Worsens
    Southern Border Hit With ‘Single Highest Daily’ Migrant Encounters As Chaos Worsens

    President Biden’s disastrous open southern border policies have sparked the worst border crisis in American history. The chaos continued this past weekend as the situation worsened by the hour. 

    On Monday morning, FOX News correspondent Griff Jenkins posted on X that US Customs and Border Protection sources revealed “approximately 11,000 migrant encounters at the SW border in the last 24 hours.” 

    Jenkins said the CBP source pointed out this is the “single highest day in recent memory.”

    He added in Eagle Pass, Texas, alone, the epicenter of the latest surge in illegal crossings, “there were more than 4000 from Fri-Sun/weekend.” 

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    Biden’s reckless open border policies have led to a surge in human trafficking, an exponential rise in drug overdose deaths nationwide, warnings from cities about financial stress due to the migrant crisis, and the proliferation of criminal organized migrant gangs undermining US laws. 

    This is unacceptable. 

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    The facts are clear: President Biden has gone against the will of the majority by enforcing unpopular, disastrous border policies embraced by a fringe minority of elites that have caused nothing but chaos for the country and quickly spread across major metro areas.

    To get fully up to speed on the migrant crisis that re-started in recent weeks, refer to our latest reporting:

    Around noon, Fox News White House correspondent Edward Lawrence posted on X, “Defense Department plans to send 800 US Troops to the southern border. 400 will be replacing troops ending their mission there. The exact location of the troops has not been announced.” 

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    The Biden administration could care less that the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll showed 62% of Americans disapproval of their efforts on the border. It appears the administration is more concerned about flooding metro areas with migrants ahead of the presidential election cycle. Why?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 21:20

  • Mask Mandates Back For Health Care Workers In Several California Counties
    Mask Mandates Back For Health Care Workers In Several California Counties

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

    Several Bay Area health agencies in California announced last week that mandatory masking would return to hospitals and health care settings for the fall and winter months.

    A health care professional prepares to enter a patient’s room, in a file photo. (Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images)

    Contra Costa, Sonoma, Alameda, and San Mateo counties issued mask orders for health care staff in hospitals and other care facilities. The orders start on Nov. 1 and last until April 30, 2024, officials said, citing recent increases in COVID-19, influenza, and other respiratory viruses that are typically commonplace during the colder months.

    “Each year we see that higher rates of influenza, COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses that can cause severe respiratory infections occur annually between late fall and spring,” Dr. Karen Smith, the Sonoma County interim health officer, said in a statement last week.

    Contra Costa Health Services CEO Anna Roth told the county’s board of supervisors last week that the mandate will be enacted, according to local media reports.

    “We are issuing the health order today around masking for high-risk facilities, health care facilities specifically,” Ms. Roth said. “So again, masking in hospitals, masking in skilled nursing facilities, masking in high-risk facilities.”

    In Alameda County, which includes the city of Oakland, the mandate will go into effect for “operators of specified Health Care Facilities” because of COVID-19, RSV, and influenza, according to KRON 4 television. Staff are now mandated to wear “high quality” and “well-fitting” masks while inside patient care settings, officials said several days ago.

    At about the same time, the San Mateo County Health Department issued an order that also mandates masks in patient care settings for health care workers for the same aforementioned period, starting on Nov. 1. Health care staff who don’t comply may face fines and misdemeanor charges.

    “Please read this order carefully. Violation of, or failure to comply with, this Order is a public nuisance subject to citation, abatement, or both, as well as a misdemeanor punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both,” it reads.

    Health officials in Santa Clara County, which includes the city of San Jose and Silicon Valley, already set a mandate in March that will require masks in patient care areas between the late fall and the spring.

    “Historical data show higher rates of infection by COVID-19, influenza, RSV and other viruses in Contra Costa County annually between late fall and spring,” Dr. Ori Tzvieli, the county’s health officer, wrote in the order at the time.

    Signs reminding people of social distancing and wearing face masks remain at a mall in California on June 14, 2021. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

    “This seasonal increase in circulation of multiple respiratory viruses poses a particular risk to people more likely to experience severe disease and death if infected, including infants, older adults, and people with impaired immunity.”

    A similar rule was initiated in San Francisco. The city, which is also a county, already enforces year-round masking for health care staffers, visitors, and patients, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

    While the Bay Area county health agencies all cited an increase in COVID-19, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggest that the current rise in reported cases is far lower than the historical average—especially previous surges of the virus.

    Since August, several hospitals across the United States have reimplemented mask mandates, although some have only made face coverings mandatory for employees—not patients or visitors. A smaller number of schools and some private businesses have also made masking mandatory in recent weeks, sparking fears of a repeat of COVID-19 mandates that were imposed over the past several years.

    Republican officials have expressed alarm about the return of mandates, with several 2024 GOP presidential candidates speaking out against them. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis earlier this month said his state wouldn’t reimplement the mandates, and former President Donald Trump released a video on social media calling on Americans to resist the rules, which he described as tyrannical.

    Milder Symptoms?

    Earlier this month, a handful of doctors revealed that symptoms of COVID-19 appear to be getting milder. Some said it’s difficult to distinguish COVID-19 from influenza, the common cold, or even allergies without testing.

    “It isn’t the same typical symptoms that we were seeing before. It’s a lot of congestion, sometimes sneezing, usually a mild sore throat,” Dr. Erick Eiting, vice chair of operations for emergency medicine at New York’s Mount Sinai, told NBC News in a Sept. 16 interview.

    He noted that “just about everyone who I’ve seen has had really mild symptoms,” referring to urgent care COVID-19 patients at his hospital.

    “The only way that we knew that it was COVID was because we happened to be testing them,” he said.

    Dr. Dan Barouch, head of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Boston’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, said the mild symptoms may be, in part, due to prior immunity.

    “Overall, the severity of COVID is much lower than it was a year ago and two years ago,” he said. “That’s not because the variants are less robust. It’s because the immune responses are higher.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 21:00

  • Oracle's Larry Ellison Touts Tesla Cybertruck As 'Next-Gen' Police Cruiser 
    Oracle’s Larry Ellison Touts Tesla Cybertruck As ‘Next-Gen’ Police Cruiser 

    Former Tesla board member and Oracle founder Larry Ellison revealed: “Our next generation of a police car is coming out very soon – it’s my favorite police car – it’s my favorite car actually – it’s Elon’s favorite car – it’s incredible, and I know too much about it.” 

    Who knew Oracle had a police station? 

    Ellison was giving a keynote speech last week when he spoke highly of the new Tesla Cybertuck. 

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    “The Oracle executive seemed serious about the company deploying its technology to make the Tesla Cybertruck a law enforcement vehicle because he said that they planned on using the existing screen and cameras inside the vehicle to deploy their software solutions,” EV blog Electrek wrote. 

    Ellison noted, “We don’t have to add cameras to it because we actually use their existing cameras and screen to put our application on it.”

    There is no word if the EV police truck will be equipped with bulletproof windows and or batteries. 

    Electrek said, “It will be interesting to see if the Cybertruck becomes the new electric vehicle of choice for the police department.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 20:40

  • Oregon Sheriffs Association Says FBI Position Makes It Impossible To Legally Buy Guns
    Oregon Sheriffs Association Says FBI Position Makes It Impossible To Legally Buy Guns

    Authored by Scottie Barnes via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Hunting rifles are displayed at a store in Ottawa in a file photo. (The Canadian Press/Jonathan Hayward)

    Legal gun sales will end in Oregon should Ballot Measure 114 survive ongoing court challenges, according to guidance provided to all county sheriffs by the Oregon State Sheriffs Association (OSAA).

    Because the FBI has stated that it will not conduct background checks for the new law, no enforcement officer will be able to issue a permit to purchase a weapon as required by the measure.

    Doing so would be a crime, the legal guidance states.

    In addition, OSAA advised sheriffs that virtually all firearm magazines would be banned after the law takes effect.

    Anyone possessing them would be committing a crime and could be arrested.

    That includes off-duty police officers.

    Tougher Rules

    Voters approved Measure 114 last year with 50.7 percent of Oregonians saying “yes.”

    To qualify for a permit under the measure, an applicant would need to complete an approved, in-person firearm safety course, pay a fee, provide personal information, submit to fingerprinting and photographing, and pass an FBI criminal background check.

    The permits would be processed by local police chiefs, county sheriffs or their designees, and Oregon State Police (OSP) with information then submitted to the FBI.

    The measure also bans magazines that are capable of holding, or being modified to hold, more than 10 rounds.

    Measure 114 has been in litigation since November 2022.

    Plaintiffs in Oregon Firearm Federation v. the State of Oregon received the first hearing on Dec. 2, with oral arguments before Federal Judge Karin Immergut.

    On Dec. 6, Judge Immergut denied plaintiffs a temporary restraining order (TRO) on the implementation of the measure but granted the state’s request for a 30-day delay on the permit-to-purchase portion of the new rules.

    In that hearing, the Oregon Attorney General’s Office reassured the court that the permit-to-purchase system required by the new measure would be ready by Dec. 8 when the law was to take effect.

    The court’s public gallery erupted in laughter at the pledge, as many gun rights advocates were skeptical that the state police or local sheriffs could have such a system in place in such a short period of time.

    In fact, according to OSSA’s legal guidance, it is still not ready.

    Also on Dec. 6, Harney County Circuit Court Judge Robert Raschio issued a TRO for the entire measure on the grounds that it violates the state constitution.

    After a federal trial in June, Judge Immergut ruled the entire measure is constitutional.

    Plaintiffs in that case filed an appeal in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. This could move the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.

    The trial in Harney County began on Sept. 18 and should conclude early next week.

    FBI Rules on Permit to Purchase

    According to OSSA’s legal guidance to sheriffs, Oregonians will be unable to obtain the “permit to purchase” required by the measure because the FBI has “explicitly stated” that it will not provide the requisite federal background check.

    In an FBI memo obtained by The Epoch Times, the bureau states that it “will not perform fingerprint-based background checks for permit applicants based on their determination that Ballot Measure 114 does not meet the requirements of Pub. L 92-544.”

    That law passed in 1972, empowers the FBI to make determinations regarding background checks for non-criminal matters.

    Those standards also include that the authorization must exist as the result of legislative enactment.

    As a voter-approved ballot measure, the FBI stated that Measure 114 does not meet that standard.

    OSSA subsequently provided legal guidance to all 36 county sheriff’s offices in the state.

    “The Oregon State Police (OSP) have informed OSSA and the Oregon Chiefs of Police that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has flatly refused to provide a criminal background check for a permit to purchase as required by the measure,” wrote OSSA General Counsel Elmer Dickens in his Aug. 29 legal guidance.

    The state police further said that they will provide a report back to the permit agent (local law enforcement) that they have “completed seven of the eight required steps,” as they are not able to complete the required FBI check, the guidance explained.

    “Our guidance on this issue is clear, unambiguous, and simple—no permit agent should issue a permit to purchase a firearm unless the Oregon State Police reports that the person is fully qualified to obtain a permit, including that they have successfully passed the required FBI background check,”

    Any agent who issues a permit to purchase without the FBI background check would be breaking the law, it continued.

    Creating Criminals

    The OSSA guidance also points out to sheriffs that virtually all firearm magazines, not just those identified as large capacity magazines (LCMs), will be outlawed by the measure.

    “For all magazines that have a detachable base-plate, the reality is that the magazine appears to fit the definition of an LCM because they are readily capable of being adapted to hold more than 10 rounds,” Mr. Dickens wrote.

    “It would appear that even drilling and riveting a base-plate to the magazine in order to more permanently attach it would not take it out of the definition of LCM, since a rivet can easily be removed and thus the magazine could again be capable in the future of holding more than 10 rounds.”

    Anyone who currently owns an LCM would be committing a crime and could be arrested if the measure is upheld, the guidance continued.

    This includes off-duty law enforcement officers, who frequently keep their service weapon with them at all times.

    Those who are arrested can attempt to prove their innocence with “affirmative defense.”

    This puts the burden of proof on the defendant to introduce evidence which, if found credible, will negate criminal liability, Mr. Dickens explained.

    But that language is so convoluted that even he could not give clear guidance.

    “The language of the affirmative defense raises many questions about enforcement of the measure,” he wrote. “Some of these questions do not have a clear answer and we will need further guidance from the judicial branch.”

    Among Mr Dickens’ concerns is the phrase “registered owner.”

    “Oregon has never required a person to register a firearm, and there are literally millions of unregistered firearms in the state,” he wrote.

    “Likewise, there is no process to register ownership of an LCM.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 20:20

  • Biden Opens Diplomatic Ties With Cook Islands & Niue In Bid To Steer Pacific Away From China
    Biden Opens Diplomatic Ties With Cook Islands & Niue In Bid To Steer Pacific Away From China

    In what’s being called a jab at China, President Biden in a Monday statement recognized the Cook Islands and Niue as “sovereign and independent” states, and formally opened diplomatic relations with them.

    Bloomberg has underscored this is being done to directly “counter” China: “President Joe Biden announced that the US would establish diplomatic relations with the Cook Islands as his administration seeks to strengthen ties with Pacific island nations and counter Beijing’s growing influence in the region,” a Monday report said.

    Via istock

    Biden is currently hosting the leaders of Pacific Island nations in Washington D.C. for an event called the US-Pacific Island Forum Summit, and during the high-level talks said “the history and the future of the Pacific Islands and the United States are inextricably linked.”

    He explained: “The United States’ recognition of the Cook Islands, and the establishment of diplomatic relations will not only strengthen the ties between our nations, it will help ensure that our shared future is more secure, more prosperous, and more free — for our people and people around the world.”

    The summit includes representation of the following countries: Australia, the Cook Islands, Micronesia, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu – according to a press release.

    Leaders from these countries were already in the United States throughout last week’s UN General Assembly, and stayed for the key Pacific Island summit.

    But one important nation did not, and its absence highlights growing regional tensions between Washington and Beijing: 

    But the administration was “very disappointed” that Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who was in New York last week for the U.N. General Assembly, opted not to stick around for the White House summit, according to an administration official. The Solomon Islands last year signed a security pact with China.

    Regarding the Cook Islands, it remains that the US is still far behind China in establishing formal ties. China along with over 50 other countries have already long recognized it. Cook Islands has long had a “free association” arrangement with New Zealand, and most of its residents maintain New Zealand citizenship.

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    Given US recognition is very belatedly coming at a moment of simmering tensions and a low-point for US-China relations, Beijing is likely to see Biden’s announcement as yet more geopolitical maneuvering for influence in the region, aimed at thwarting China alignment among small nations.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 20:00

  • White House Pledges $100 Million Support Kenyan UN Soldiers In Haiti
    White House Pledges $100 Million Support Kenyan UN Soldiers In Haiti

    Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

    Secretary of State Antony Blinken explained how the US plans to support a proposed UN deployment to Haiti aimed at restoring order in the country. The White House intends to spend $100 million to support the Kenyan soldiers sent to the Caribbean nation. Washington believes the troops could be deployed to Haiti within a few months. 

    On Friday, Blinken hosted a meeting in New York of countries that support Washington’s effort to get the UN Security Council to approve a resolution that would see Kenya lead an international force in Haiti. “As the Haitian National Police works to get to full strength and capacity, security assistance from international partners can play a critical bridging role. That’s why the United States supports the UN-backed Multinational Security Support mission,” the American diplomat said in his address.

    Blinked went on to pledge $165 million in military assistance to Port-au-Prince and Nairobi. “[The US] also announcing an additional $65 million to further professionalize the Haitian National Police and strengthen its capacity to dismantle the gangs and to safeguard communities,” he announced.

    “[The White House] intends to work with our Congress to provide $100 million in support, and our Department of Defense is prepared to provide robust enabling support – including planning assistance, intelligence support, airlift, communications, and medical support.”

    Blinken noted the White House previously provided Port-au-Prince with over $120 million in security assistance. 

    The Joe Biden administration has wanted to deploy an international force to Haiti for over a year. In 2021, more Haitians began to arrive at the US border seeking entry. As a candidate, Biden repeatedly denounced then-President Donald Trump’s immigration policy as inhumane. 

    The situation proved a political nightmare for the White House. US Border Patrol agents were photographed using questionable tactics to round up Haitian migrants near the southern border. The White House has deported tens of thousands of Haitians back to their home country despite the rampant violence. 

    The White House attempted to resolve the issue by helping Haitian leader Ariel Henry restore order. Henry ascended to power in Port-au-Price with the support of Washington after President Jovenel Moise was assassinated in July 2021. While it is unclear who is behind the plot to kill Moise, Henry has been named as potentially involved. 

    Since Henry became Prime Minister, gangs have taken control of more territory. The Haitian leader has responded by supporting Washington’s effort to deploy UN peacekeepers to his country. “Democracy is at peril. Our country needs a return to normalcy,” Henry said. “Improved security must be accompanied by real progress to resolve the political crisis. The support mission will not be a substitute for political progress.”

    Last year, the White House pressured Canada to lead the UN mission to Haiti, but Ottawa resisted the Biden administration’s request. In August, Washington announced it had enlisted Nairobi to lead the mission. 

    There are significant potential issues if UN soldiers are deployed to Haiti. In 2010, UN personnel released sewage into water that contained the country’s drinking supply, causing a cholera outbreak that claimed nearly 10,000 lives. Additionally, according to the State Department, Kenyan security forces routinely commit human rights atrocities. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 19:40

  • Toyota Planning To Triple EV Output To 600,000 Vehicles By 2025
    Toyota Planning To Triple EV Output To 600,000 Vehicles By 2025

    Make no mistake about it: the race to head up the electric vehicle war appears to be the sole objective for automakers not just in the U.S., but around the world.

    With that, Toyota is dramatically intensifying its focus on electric vehicles, according to a new report from Nikkei, with plans to triple its EV output by 2025 from planned production numbers for 2024.

    Aiming to stay competitive with EV market leaders like Tesla and BYD, Toyota has informed its primary parts suppliers that it plans to manufacture 600,000 EVs under its Toyota and Lexus brands in 2025, a significant jump from its 190,000-unit target for 2024. The automaker sold just 24,000 EVs in 2022.

    For perspective, Toyota aims to produce more than 10 million vehicles in total for 2023, including approximately 150,000 EVs.

    By 2025, the company expects to roll out 11 million vehicles overall, with EVs comprising 5% to 6% of that figure. An executive from a parts supplier estimates that, including original equipment manufacturer (OEM) models, Toyota’s EV sales in 2025 could approach 800,000 units, the report says. 

    This ambitious scaling-up includes the launch of an electric Hilux model in Thailand later this year, electric SUVs in China and the U.S. next year, and an electric Lexus ES in Japan by 2025. Moreover, Toyota is collaborating with Suzuki Motor and subsidiary Daihatsu Motor to create electric versions of mini commercial vehicles.

    In the United States, a specialized plant scheduled to become operational in 2025 will primarily produce EV batteries. Production lines for batteries will also be established at two Aichi facilities, with battery subsidiary Prime Planet Energy & Solutions slated for production expansion.

    By 2026, Toyota intends to roll out a next-generation EV platform beginning with Lexus models, featuring gigacasting technology that streamlines aluminum molding for vehicle chassis, thereby conserving time, funds, and labor. The long-term objective is to sell 3.5 million EVs by 2030, with 1.7 million utilizing this new platform.

    Nikkei notes that while the emphasis on electric vehicles is growing, Toyota’s overarching strategy remains committed to diversifying its power sources, including traditional gasoline and hybrid models. However, its current EV offerings face profitability challenges and lag in sales when compared to frontrunners Tesla and BYD.

    EVs have become such a point of contention that the EU recently opened an investigation into China’s EV subsidies, claiming they were disruptive to the market. Chinese state mouthpiece The Global Times published a rebuttal earlier this month, claiming that the EU’s probe would likely “backfire” and that the EU’s economy would suffer as a result. 

    “Clearly, Europe is afraid,” The Global Times wrote. “They are afraid of competition from China, so they want to seek trade protectionism as a protective umbrella for European auto makers who are slowly transitioning toward electrification.”

    China says that the EU should “have enough courage to face competition from their Chinese counterparts directly.”

    At a time when tensions between China and the EU have been simmering for months, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is taking exception with the fact that “the global market is flooded with cheap Chinese cars”, we noted earlier this month, citing Bloomberg.

    Speaking to parliament earlier this month, von der Leyen said: “Their price is kept artificially low by huge state subsidies. This is distorting our market. And as we do not accept this distortion from the inside in our market, we do not accept this from the outside.”

    We also noted this summer that the push for EVs is so crucial, automakers like Ford are voluntarily losing billions on it as they adapt, just to be a the forefront of the industry. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 19:20

  • Justin Trudeau's Nazi Hot Take Flexibility: Taibbi
    Justin Trudeau’s Nazi Hot Take Flexibility: Taibbi

    Authored by Matt Taibbi via Racket News,

    Let me get this straight:

    A year and a half ago, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau denounced a Jewish member of parliament named Melissa Lantsman for standing with “people who wave swastikas.” Lantsman had criticized Trudeau for fanning “the flames of an unjustified national emergency” in response to the “Freedom Convoy” trucker protests. The “swastikas” Trudeau referenced were, as even Snopes conceded, virtually all “pictured on signs as a way of mocking and protesting government restrictions,” comme ça:

    By saying Lantsman stood with “people who wave swastikas,” in other words, Trudeau really meant she was standing with “people who called me a Nazi.” He declined to apologize, which of course is his prerogative.

    This week, both Trudeau and House of Commons Speaker Anthony Rota are under fire after Rota invited, and Trudeau applauded, a 98-year-old former soldier from the 14th Waffen-SS Grenadier Division named Yaroslav Hunka to attend an address by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. Rota praised Hunka as a “Canadian hero” from his time fighting the Soviets in World War II when, not that it matters, they were allies to the United States and Canada. Leaving the elderly Hunka out of this for the moment, these politicians could easily have turned up the man’s blogs about joining Hitler’s army, making the applause scene at least approach the max on the cringe scale:

    Amid the subsequent outcry, Trudeau squeaked out a handful of sentences that collectively gave off least a faint aroma of apology, though he personally didn’t apologize for anything, and invoked “mistakes were made” phrasing:

    It’s extremely upsetting that this happened. The Speaker has acknowledged his mistake and has apologized… This is something that is deeply embarrassing to the Parliament of Canada and by extension to all Canadians… I think particularly of Jewish MPs and all members of the Jewish community, celebrating, um, commemorating Yom Kippur today.

    If he’d stopped there, it would have been a merely gross performance. He didn’t, jumping straight from “Yom Kippur today” to:

    I think it’s going to be really important that all of us push back against Russian propaganda, Russian disinformation, and continue our steadfast and unequivocal support for Ukraine, as we did last week with announcing further measures to stand with Ukraine in Russia’s illegal war against it.

    To recap: Trudeau in a clear act of official disinformation smeared thousands of Canadian protesters as Nazis last year with context-twisting descriptions of a few decidedly un-representative photos. Now, after the Speaker of the House of Commons invited an ex-Nazi to parliament in a planned political act that had to be somewhat representative of the thinking of Trudeau’s Liberal government, the Prime Minister is complaining about “Russian disinformation,” as if that were to blame for this optics Hindenburg. As the CBC put it:

    Trudeau warned that this event may fuel Russian propaganda. Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed the Ukraine conflict is about rooting out Nazis.

    Dude, Vladimir Putin didn’t invite a Nazi to parliament, your government did. Do Davosketeers like Trudeau have anything inside, like shame or their own thoughts, or are they just manicured readers of talking points? Sheesh. It’s almost funny, how repugnant these people are.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 19:00

  • US To Keep Paying Salaries For Tens Of Thousands Of Ukrainians During Government Shutdown
    US To Keep Paying Salaries For Tens Of Thousands Of Ukrainians During Government Shutdown

    A newly aired “60 Minutes” segment entitled The unexpected way American tax dollars are being used in Ukraine has uncovered that the US government is paying the salaries of some 57,000 Ukrainian civic services personnel. 

    The report details the various ways non-military aid is being spent at a moment GOP Congressional leaders are intensely debating whether to move forward with a proposed defense budget that includes Biden’s push for $24 billion more in military assistance for Kiev. Watch: 

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    “The U.S. has spent just over $43 billion on military aid to Ukraine since Russia invaded. That’s equivalent to about 5% of the American defense budget. European countries combined have contributed around $30 billion,” the 60 Minutes report narrates. 

    And this includes the following stunning detail: 

    American taxpayers are financing more than just weapons. We discovered the U.S. government’s buying seeds and fertilizer for Ukrainian farmers… and covering the salaries of Ukraine’s first responders – all 57,000 of them. 

    That includes the team that trains this rescue dog – named Joy – to comb through the wreckage of Russian strikes looking for survivors.

    Political commentator Collin Rugg has noted in relation to the potential government shutdown looming for Oct. 1st: “Yes, your tax dollars will be used to fund Ukrainian salaries while American citizens are forced to wait for their pay while the government remains closed,” he said on X.

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    Rugg is referencing the fact that the Biden administration and Pentagon have declared that Ukraine aid will remain exempt from any potential government shutdown. This means Ukrainian salaries will still be paid, even while federal employees aren’t, in the event of a shutdown.

    Here’s more from the 60 Minutes video, featuring a Ukrainian woman “thanking” US taxpayers for footing the bill for Ukrainian employees, thanks to USAID funding: 

    Tatiana Abramova: Especially in the condition of war, we have to work. We have to pay taxes, we have to pay wage– salary to our employees. We have to work, don’t stop.

    Holly Williams: Why does that help Ukraine win the war?

    Tatiana Abramova: Because economy is the foundation of everything.

    American officials from USAID – the agency in charge of international development – helped Abramova find new customers overseas. In the midst of war, her company is supporting over 70 families. 

    Meanwhile, a fresh Newsweek headline: US Will Pay Salaries to Thousands of Ukrainians During Government Shutdown…

    “US taxpayers will pay the salaries of thousands of Ukrainians, even as the country faces a government shutdown at the end of September.”

    But as noted above, this is more like tens of thousands of Ukrainian salaries.

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    “A federal government shut down will effectively begin on October 1 if Congress isn’t able to pass a funding plan that Biden signs into law,” Newsweek underscores. “If that happens, federal agencies have to stop all nonessential work and will not send paychecks for as long as the shutdown lasts.”

    Appropriately, the 60 Minutes episode invoked memory of the late John McCain…

    In total, America’s pumped nearly $25 billion of non-military aid into Ukraine’s economy since the invasion began – and you can see it working at the bustling farmers market on John McCain Street in central Kyiv.

    The late senator is revered in Ukraine because he pushed the U.S. government to start sending arms to the country… back in 2014. 

    Here’s how 60 Minutes presents bipartisan support for Biden’s blank check for Ukraine:

    While in Kyiv, we learned that three of McCain’s former colleagues were also in town: Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. They don’t normally agree on much – together, though, they’re some of the staunchest supporters of U.S. funding for Ukraine’s resistance.

    Sen. Lindsey Graham: They’re on track to break the Russian army, and the only way they could possibly lose is if we pull the plug on them.

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    Indeed Zelensky himself while meeting with US Senators in Washington last week said something similar – that without continuing American funds, the war effort is doomed. He urged Congress to keep the billions in aid flowing, and sought to present that Moscow will one day expand aggression beyond just Ukraine.

    * * *

    Meanwhile, the “aid from the heart of every ordinary American person” will continue (whether those ordinary Americans like or not)…

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 18:40

  • Russia Lifts Ban On Low-Quality Diesel Exports
    Russia Lifts Ban On Low-Quality Diesel Exports

    By Tsvetana Paraskova of Oilprice.com,

    On Monday, Russia tweaked its export limitations on fuels, lifting the temporary ban on exports of low-quality diesel and marine fuel.

    At the end of last week, Russia surprised the markets by announcing a temporary ban on exports of gasoline and diesel to stabilize fuel prices on the domestic market, ending weeks of speculation that authorities would limit exports in the face of soaring prices and shortages due to higher crude prices and weak Russian ruble.

    Fuel already accepted for export by Transneft and the Russian Railways before last week’s ban came into effect is also exempt from the restrictions, according to the Russian government.

    But the export ban on all types of gasoline and on higher-quality diesel remains in place, per a government document cited by Reuters.

    Before the temporary restrictions were enacted, Russia had raised the mandatory supply volumes of motor gasoline and diesel fuel to the commodity exchange to help ease the supply crunch.

    “The temporary restrictions will help raise supply on the fuel market, which in turn will reduce prices for consumers,” the Russian government said last Thursday when it announced the export ban.

    Russia has been considering a fuel export ban since May in an effort to avert domestic fuel shortages and rein in prices after announcing a halving of subsidies to oil refiners that will start this month in order to keep more money in government coffers to fund its military operation in Ukraine.

    Lower diesel supply out of Russia would not only reduce Putin’s revenues but could also tighten an already tight global diesel market.

    Many analysts, however, believe that the temporary ban on fuel exports will not last long, and it could be a matter of only a few weeks before it is lifted.

    Russia doesn’t have much storage capacity, so when the harvest season ends and supply to the domestic market increases, Russia may not be willing to have refineries close fuel processing capacities because of the export restrictions, analysts say.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 18:20

  • Chicago' Problem Is Crime, The Mayor's Solution Is City-Run Grocery Stores
    Chicago’ Problem Is Crime, The Mayor’s Solution Is City-Run Grocery Stores

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Walmart closed 4 stores. Whole Foods closed another, all due to theft, looting, and worker safety.

    Mayor Brandon Johnson, Grocery Mogul, to the Rescue

    “Will the progressive mayor be willing to stop shoplifting at his government-run stores?” asks the Wall Street Journal in its take Brandon Johnson, Grocery Mogul.

    Mayor Brandon Johnson said recently the city that used to work should consider opening government-run food stores because “all Chicagoans deserve to live near convenient, affordable, healthy grocery options.” He’s upset that at least six grocery stores have closed in the past two years on the city’s South and West sides.

    Walmart closed four stores in Chicago because they were losing tens of millions of dollars a year, and CEO Doug McMillon said annual losses had doubled in the past five years.

    The problem isn’t corporate racism. It’s crime. In 2022 Chicago reported 54,000 thefts and a mere 4% resulted in an arrest. Of the 8,730 retail thefts, there were 1,450 arrests, or less than 17%, according to Wirepoints and the Chicago city data portal.

    Questions Abound

    • What will the mayor do to prevent theft at his government grocery chain?

    • Will Johnson consider it the cost of doing business (supported by higher tax hikes)?

    • Or will Johnson provide more police protection for the stores the city opens? And if so, what won’t get protection that now does?

    • Then again, what is getting any police protection now?

    That’s a lot of questions.

    Meanwhile if you are a store owner in Chicago suffering huge losses to theft or if you are an individual tired of the crime and piss poor public schools, I have a suggestion: leave.

    But think about where your going. Leaving Chicago isn’t enough. I advise leaving the state.

    Just remember It Takes 3 Weeks to Escape Illinois, at least it did for us because all of the U-Haul rentals were leaving.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 17:40

  • Growing Numbers Of American Volunteers Wounded In Ukraine Treated At US Army Hospital In Germany
    Growing Numbers Of American Volunteers Wounded In Ukraine Treated At US Army Hospital In Germany

    The US Army is giving medical care to wounded American fighters who volunteered for Ukraine’s foreign legion and other militias at a hospital in Germany. 

    This is happening with increasing frequency at the US Army’s Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, a New York Times investigation found, which marks “a notable new step in the United States’ deepening involvement in the conflict,” as the report underscored.

    Aerial view of Landstuhl Regional Medical Center

    Landstuhl is the Pentagon’s flagship medical center in Germany, and it for many years was the central treatment center in Europe for wounded American troops evacuated from war theatres like Afghanistan and Iraq.

    The Times observed that the hospital “has quietly started admitting Ukrainian Army soldiers who were wounded in combat, most of them American volunteers.” This is unusual given the hospital would typically only treat active duty personnel. 

    The report described:

    “A group of Ukrainian Army soldiers pierced by Russian grenades and mortar shells arrived at a hospital recently in need of surgery. It would have been a familiar scene from the bloody war grinding on in Ukraine, except for two crucial differences: Most of the wounded soldiers were American…”

    “Though the number so far is small — currently 14 — it marks a notable new step in the United States’ deepening involvement in the conflict,” NYT continued.

    There are still believed to be hundreds of American volunteers fighting alongside Ukrainian forces. In the opening year of the war, there may have been multiple thousands. This after Zelensky in the initial weeks of the Russian invasion begged for foreign volunteers and mercenaries, and Western mainstream press and social media amplified these calls…

    But unlike the early part of the conflict, when there was the constant media drumbeat of claims that Ukraine was “winning” – there has since been a dramatic narrative shift, centered on the failed counteroffensive. This dour turn is reflected in the NYT report in the following: 

    An unknown number of them have been shot, hit by artillery, blown up by mines or otherwise injured in combat. About 20 have been killed. Most of the wounded have had to rely on a patchwork of Ukrainian hospitals and Western charities for help. Now, though, the Pentagon has stepped in to offer some of them the same care it gives to American active-duty troops.

    Some of these Americans are serving under contract directly with Ukraine’s military, while others volunteered with local militias. 

    After some 19 months of war, there have been sporadic reports of Americans dying or being captured, but this is the first time a newspaper of the stature of the New York Times has listed twenty American deaths in Ukraine – a higher figure than what’s previously been disclosed.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 17:20

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Sep 25

Today’s News 25th September 2023

  • BRICS Will Change The World… Slowly
    BRICS Will Change The World… Slowly

    Via VoiceFromRussia.ch,

    BRICS, the organization that is hardly noticed in the West, more than doubled its membership at the end of August – something is happening.

    Introduction

    It seems to be more a rule than an exception that the most important changes in the history of financial systems either go completely unnoticed or the vast part of the public – including financial experts and investors – does not grasp the importance of such transformations.

    There are several examples for this claim: On December 23, 1913 the Senate passed and President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act. The FED being as “federal” as “Federal Express”, a private bank whose shareholder register is not open to the public, rules the world since 1913. The date of December 23 was wisely chosen since the public and most politicians were too engaged in Christmas preparations to realize that this event would change the order of America and then the world forever. 

    When Richard Nixon, on August 15, 1971, “temporarily” closed the gold window, the Sunday afternoon TV shows got interrupted – among else the TV series “Bonanza” – to inform the American people of his decision. Although, this event was called the Nixon Shock, people did not seem to grasp the importance of this deed. 

    Lastly, the famously brilliant Henry Kissinger managed to make a deal with King Faisal of Saudi Arabia in 1974, which gave the US unlimited financial and, therefore, geopolitical power by creating the Petrodollar, banishing the danger stemming from a U.S. dollar that was backed by nothing, by backing it with U.S. military might in exchange for nearly unlimited investments in U.S. bonds.

    Now, on August 22, BRICS, an organization, which does not gather a lot of attention in the Western media, announced that, apart from the five countries, whose initials gave it its name (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), BRICS welcomed six new members (Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) to join BRICS by January 1, 2024; therefore, BRICS becoming BRICS 11. 

    In this article, let us first quickly look at some facts & figures of BRICS 11. Then, we shall explore the history of the current financial system and it’s becoming in detail in order to appreciate its importance to U.S. power in the period from World War II to the present. Then we shall look at the way the U.S. abused the inherent privileges of this system, which is one reason that led to the current rise of BRICS. Finally, we shall try to answer the question whether the events of August 2023 have the potential to change the world or whether it will be one more fruitless endeavor of emerging market nations to stand-up against the Collective West.

    Origin of BRICS

    The term BRIC was coined by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill in a 2001 paper where he explained the future economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

    In 2006, the BRIC countries met for the first time on the fringes of the UN-General Assembly in New York. A first formal meeting took place in Yekaterinburg in 2009. The aim of this initially loose community was to improve cooperation among its members. In 2010, South Africa joined, which means that this organization has since been called BRICS. This August the number of its members more than doubled and we shall call it now BRICS 11.

    Figures

    With regard to the most important economic indicators such as population, GDP (PPP), oil, natural gas and gold production, naked figures show that BRICS 11 is much stronger with regard to any of these indicators than G7 (Table 1).

    These figures on their own should be a wake-up call to all the people, experts, politicians and investors who still seem to believe that it is sufficient to judge the financial world from a pure western perspective. 

    There are a few points I would like to draw the attention to of the readers regarding the way these naked figures could and should be read and interpreted. However, I am fully aware that I can only give you a glimpse at the reality and this exercise herein is of a very limited nature indeed. 

    Regarding GDP, I use purchase power adjusted figures. Why? – If you use the U.S. dollar as a tally to measure GDP, ask yourself the simple question: If I want to measure financial punch, does it matter whether, e.g., a Big Mac costs twice as much in U.S. dollar terms in one place than in the other? – In my opinion it does. The Big Mac Index should be reason enough to use PPP-adjusted figures when comparing GDP figures. The reason that Western outlets use the non-adjusted figures is pure marketing masking the debasement of the U.S. dollar and appearing stronger than one is – propaganda.

    Regarding oil production figures, we should consider the following facts when assessing them: Firstly, although the U.S. is still the largest oil producer in the world with a share of about 18% of world production, the U.S. are also the largest oil consumer, using-up more than 20% of world consumption. Therefore, the U.S. are at this time not even able to cover their own consumption. Secondly, the large oil-producing members of BRICS 11 have a big influence – or better – control over OPEC. Therefore, BRICS 11 will also rule OPEC and, therefore, control the price and distribution of oil, which has not been given the nick name “Black Gold” without good reason. Thirdly, the production cost of U.S. oil are about 2.5 times higher than the production cost of Saudi oil. 

    Regarding natural gas one should note, that with the accession of Iran into BRICS, the two largest natural gas producers worldwide are joint members of BRICS: Russia and Iran. The largest non-BRICS gas producer is the (still) U.S. allied Qatar. BRICS is, therefore, also a powerhouse regarding natural gas indeed.

    Regarding gold, it should shortly be mentioned that China and Russia are number 1 and 2 respectively regarding global gold production. Gold I mention in here since there is a rather good chance that – somewhere in the future – gold will again play a major role in future money systems, being the only manner to discipline central bankers who basically only did one thing since 1914 – printing money, debasing the U.S. dollar and cynically claiming to protect the currency. There are a lot of people in the West who actually claim that gold is a pet rock. These people do not understand the history of the past 4’000 years where gold was always king. The mere fact that Nixon abolished the gold standard in order to avoid bankruptcy is not a good argument against gold, but should be one in its favor. 

     

    Bretton Woods

    In order to grasp the importance of the rather swift developments around BRICS and the rationale behind it, we shall look at the present system of the financial corset so imposed by the U.S. on the rest of the world. How did the U.S. achieve such dominance, how the hegemon behaved since, and finally the probability of a change of the system. 

    In 1944, the Americans reached the pinnacle of their power. They dominated the war effort together with the Russians, possessed 22,000 tons of gold, and the American industry produced 70% of the world’s manufactured goods. That is how complete dominance looks like: Military dominance, industrial dominance and gold – he who has the gold makes the rules. 

    On top of these facts, the Americans – as ever – being the undisputed masters of marketing, persuaded the Europeans to believe that it was actually the U.S. who liberated Europe from the evil Mr. Hitler. This was a diplomatic master stroke since cold facts and figures clearly showed that the Russians bore the largest chunk liberating Europe from the Nazis. The Russians decimated the German Wehrmacht in the East and – in this endeavor – killed around 5 times more German soldiers than all western allies together at the western front. This very ability of marketing and deception by the United States would serve them well until the present day. 

    Against such an overwhelming power, based on the three pillars of military might, industry and gold, the entire rest of the world – whether friend or foe – did not stand a chance to have any influence worth mentioning on influencing US intentions. 

    The Bretton Woods system was thus an emanation of absolute U.S. power and not – as portrayed in history books – a mechanism negotiated by the victorious powers of World War II in an atmosphere of friendly partnership. 

    Bretton Woods also sealed the demise of the British Empire by giving the Americans absolute power through pegging the currencies of 44 member states to the U.S. dollar, which in turn came out as the only currency of the world backed by gold. 

    The British Empire on which the sun finally set, proposed a system that involved the introduction of an international settlement currency called the Bancor. This idea by John Maynard Keynes foresaw the Bancor being used as an international unit of account to which participating currencies would have been pegged. The value of the Bancor itself was to be backed by gold. The gold-backed Bancor would have served as the unit of account. A fair system giving a chance to countries with merit, leading to a multipolar world. However, a multipolar world was the last thing the Americans intended to build – they wanted to become the hegemon and achieved their goal; the British had not a snowball’s chance in hell with their – in my opinion – great idea. 

    The Bretton Woods system gave all member states the contractual right to exchange the U.S. dollar they held for physical gold at a fix rate of U.S. dollar 35 per ounce of gold. Therefore, the Bretton Woods system should have forced the Americans to behave fiscally disciplined so that all member countries would keep confidence in the U.S. dollar believing that the U.S. dollar was indeed as good as gold.

    The Americans, however, as the world power and hegemon, did not care one iota about the interests of their partners and, starting in the 1960s, printed more and more U.S. dollars to finance the Vietnam War and the Great Society project initiated by President Johnson. Both, the costs of the Vietnam War as well as the Great Society Project, the largest social program of the USA up to that time, whose main goal was to completely eliminate poverty and racial injustice, got completely out of hand.

    The French were the first to realize that the U.S. dollar was losing value due to American money printing and began to exercise their contractual right to exchange their U.S. dollars for physical gold. Others followed suit. The Americans’ huge gold hoard melted away like butter in the sun. While the USA had more than 22,000 tons of gold at the end of the war, it was only over 8,000 tons in 1971.

    On August 15, 1971, all major television stations in the U.S. interrupted their Sunday afternoon programming and President Nixon addressed the nation. He claimed that the speculators were waging an all-out war against the U.S. dollar and that he had thus ordered the U.S. dollar to be defended against these speculators. He informed the American people that he had instructed the treasury that the convertibility of the U.S. dollar into gold be temporarily suspended. 

    This all sounded very patriotic, but it was a complete lie. The speculators Nixon decried were actually member states of the Bretton Woods system who had realized that the Americans had ripped them off and were merely exercising their contractual right to exchange a debasing U.S. dollar for gold as stipulated in the Bretton Woods agreements. Nixon thus committed nothing less than breach of contract. The members of Bretton Woods were cheated and left sitting on their paper dollars being barred from getting their contractually stipulated gold.

    Petrodollar – an exorbitant privilege

    The deceived members of Bretton Woods decided not to hand over a declaration of war to the Americans, but kept silent like sheep and made a fist in their pockets. They probably believed that the Americans had dug their own grave by breaking the treaty. 

    However, they had not reckoned with the brilliant Henry Kissinger. The man was sent by Richard Nixon on Mission Impossible to save the Dollar. Kissinger convinced Saudi King Faisal to sell his oil exclusively in U.S. dollars and to invest the proceeds in American government securities. In return, smart Henry promised Faisal military protection. Other countries and commodities followed. Like Houdini, Kissinger freed the U.S. from a dire situation by making the impossible possible. Mission accomplished: The Petrodollar was born. 

    Now, if almost the entire world uses a single currency – the U.S. dollar – for almost all trading activities, all countries are obliged to hold this currency in reserve to pay their bills. These countries do not hold the reserves in cash, but invest them in American government securities to earn a return on their reserve holdings. In this way, the Americans managed to create the largest bond market in the world. It should be noted that the U.S. dollar is a product like any other, whose price is subject to the law of supply and demand. The U.S. dollar is not bought because it is a good investment in itself nor do most buyers purchase American products. No, U.S. dollars are required in order to buy nearly any product around the globe. This unjustifiably strengthens the price of the U.S. dollar. Why unjustifiably? – Other countries need to produce something worth buying that will hold up in the world market to keep their currencies valuable – the U.S. do not. 

    If now the whole world has to hold U.S. dollars and holds them in American government securities, the American government finances itself very cheaply because the price of American bonds does not depend on the strength of the American economy, but is based on compulsory buying due to the Petrodollar system – ingenious. 

    To put it bluntly, the U.S. could thus afford everything for over 50 years, because the bills were paid by others. Imagine a guy who goes shopping with a credit card that has not limit. He has a big mouth, buys everything he wants and never pays the credit card bill, but owes the money to those who sell him the goods, the latter never getting paid but receive an IOU only.

    Only due to this – for the U.S. – brilliant system were the Americans able to increase their deficits to levels which can only be described as mind boggling: When Roland Reagan took office, US-debt was below 1 trillion, now it stands at over 33 trillion. Any other nation would have collapsed since nobody would dare to put money in such a black hole – but the whole world has to keep buying U.S. dollars due to the Petrodollar system. So, now we know how the U.S. could cultivate a lifestyle at the expense of others for over 50 years that in no way correlates with the performance of its economy. This great lifestyle is based only on the compulsion of the rest of the world to hold U.S. dollars. Giscard d’Estaing called this advantage an exorbitant privilege – rightly so.

    Petrodollar, a geopolitical power tool abused by the U.S.

    When it came to maintaining their privilege, the U.S. showed little squeamishness if anyone dared to break away from the Petrodollar regime. In recent history, two examples may be mentioned. We all remember the second Iraq war, when it was claimed that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and that this put the USA in danger. Despite a unambiguous report from the UN that there were no weapons of mass destruction or even a single hint that they existed, the Americans attacked Iraq anyway in order to rid the world of the evil Saddam Hussein and bring peace and freedom to the Iraqis. A big lie. Weapons of mass destruction were not to be found in Iraq; half a million civilians were killed – their relatives were certainly thrilled about this kind of democratic gift that the U.S. forced upon them. The reason for the Iraq war was a different one: the Petrodollar. Saddam Hussein – we don’t need to dwell on his qualities as a human being here – wanted to sell his oil not only in U.S. dollars but also in Euros. That was his death sentence. Anyone who claims otherwise is either ill-informed, naive or lying. The facts are on the table.

    President Gaddafi ruled Libya with a strong hand for decades. He made Libya the richest country in Africa with an excellent infrastructure. Whether Colonel Gaddafi was a do-gooder or not is also not a topic of this discussion. Gaddafi also had a plan to get away from the U.S. dollar: He wanted to create the Gold Dinar to free Africa from the shackles of the Petrodollar. This, too, did not go over well with the Americans. The result was a dead Gaddafi and a completely destroyed country.

    These two examples bring us to the geopolitical might the U.S. draws from the Petrodollar.  It is important to know that only the U.S. Federal Reserve can actually hold U.S. dollars. Every bank in the world that offers U.S. dollar accounts ultimately only has a booking entry for a U.S. dollar amount and a contractual claim against the US central bank. This also explains that any payment made in U.S. dollars goes through the U.S. Thus, the Americans can single-handedly cut off any party – be it a country or an individual – from the U.S. dollar or freeze or seize a party’s U.S. dollars holdings.

    The U.S. has been using this tool systematically since World War II with countries deemed worthy of being punished or destroyed economically, e.g., the U.S. sanction Cuba for over 60 years or Iran for over 40 years.

    This use of force was justified by the USA with flimsiest arguments like communism, terrorism, war crimes etc. Whether the accusations were or are true or not, is completely irrelevant, because the judge sits in the U.S. and the legal basis is force. Depending on the decade you live in, you gets the label of communist, terrorist, drug dealer if you have the audacity to disagree with the hegemon. And the lapdogs such as the European “rulers” agree with the empire and serve as its willing assistants.

    When the Americans impose such sanctions, they regularly threaten any party that does business with the sanctioned party with sanctions as well. These so-called secondary sanctions work since most international business is transacted in U.S. dollars and the respective companies – banks, commodity buyers, industrial suppliers – have no choice, but to comply.

    A lot of people in the world are of the opinion that the U.S. are not behaving fairly towards the rest of the world and completely abuse their exorbitant privilege they possess with the Petrodollar.

    This concludes our journey into the world of the Petrodollar and brings us to the reasons why BRICS want to say goodbye to the U.S. dollar, as the U.S. has overstepped the mark. After the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West, led by the U.S., not only slapped Russia with a flurry of sanctions that has no equal in history, but also froze the foreign currency reserves of the Russian Central Bank. Shortly thereafter, discussions began as to what the West intended to do with the funds. After the freeze, the robbery is now being discussed.

    I strongly believe that with the freezing of the reserves of the Russian Central Bank, the U.S. triggered a reaction they did not expect. Huge nations like India and China became suddenly concerned that the freezing of Russian Central Bank assets set a precedent and could also happen to them, especially in the more than tensioned geopolitical situation of today where anybody who cares can easily observe that the strategy of weakening Russia is only a pre-course of the battle the U.S. will lead against China. This is also the reason that BRICS seems to speed-up the process. Apart from the current 11 members of BRICS around 40 further nations applied to join.

    The trigger for the attack on the petrodollar

    This concludes our journey into the world of the Petrodollar and brings us to the reasons why BRICS want to say goodbye to the U.S. dollar, as the U.S. has overstepped the mark. After the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West, led by the U.S., not only slapped Russia with a flurry of sanctions that has no equal in history, but also froze the foreign currency reserves of the Russian Central Bank. Shortly thereafter, discussions began as to what the West intended to do with the funds. After the freeze, the robbery is now being discussed.

    I strongly believe that with the freezing of the reserves of the Russian Central Bank, the U.S. triggered a reaction they did not expect. Huge nations like India and China became suddenly concerned that the freezing of Russian Central Bank assets set a precedent and could also happen to them, especially in the more than tensioned geopolitical situation of today where anybody who cares can easily observe that the strategy of weakening Russia is only a pre-course of the battle the U.S. will lead against China. This is also the reason that BRICS seems to speed-up the process. Apart from the current 11 members of BRICS around 40 further nations applied to join.

    Consequences

    We have now seen that the might of the U.S. and the fate of their economic well-being very much hinges on the Petrodollar and that the American leadership is very well aware of this fact, crushing anybody who dares not to use the U.S. dollar in international trade. 

    In my opinion, however, the U.S. government misjudges its own leverage to put fear into other nations at this time. The Petrodollar system only works as flawlessly as it did in the past as long as the U.S. were able to control the world with mere threats, which were – once in a while – kinetically executed as it was the case with Iraq and Libya. However, the embarrassing retreat from Afghanistan did not help the U.S. to be seen as the military force they like to portray. The loss of influence over Saudi Arabia and Iran is a painful geopolitical sign for U.S. foreign policy. The peace reached between Saudi Arabia and Iran and then between Saudi Arabia and Syria is not only an economic disaster to the U.S. regarding oil, but a geopolitical catastrophe regarding U.S. influence in the Middle East. With these peace makings, the U.S. have been deprived of their ability to play out the strategy of divide et impera since the U.S. cannot manipulate these countries anymore and it seems that the U.S. are not feared anymore. As a group the middle east nations became too powerful and do sell their commodities in other currencies other than the U.S. dollar – a scenario which was completely unthinkable just a few years ago. 

    BRICS 11 will have one immediate consequence: Their members will not use the U.S. dollar when trading among each other. This is a huge problem for the U.S. since these countries will reduce their U.S. dollar holdings and therefore, the refinancing of the U.S. budget becomes a problem, leading to higher interest rates, which will in turn lead to higher inflation and a further debasement of the U.S. dollar because what cannot be raised in the international markets has to be printed. 

    The much-discussed introduction of a new settlement currency based on gold within BRICS is not a necessary element to de-dollarization. Such introduction faces substantial hurdles also due to the heterogeneity of the BRICS members. However, the consequences for the U.S. dollar will be immediate and problematic to the U.S. 

    We explained the vast power of the United States since World War II. It is in my opinion a myth that the U.S. hegemony is based on its military might. Far more important is their financial hegemony which – at least until now – allowed the U.S. to more or less control the world with a relatively small army and 9 aircraft carrier groups who regularly, as a show of force, bomb the hell out of small countries which do not have air forces or air defense systems to stand a chance against U.S. force. The whole U.S. power is based on the Petrodollar – that is my belief.

    Conclusion

    There are authors who predict a quick demise of the Petrodollar and, therefore, of the American financial hegemony, which in turn will lead to the demise of the U.S. as the undisputed geopolitical world leader. Fact is, that a substantial part of the world will avoid using the U.S. dollar in trade. This development has already started. Therefore, the trend is set. However, it is in my opinion impossible to make any prediction as to the speed and timing of this trend. The proclaimed goal of BRICS and other organizations of the Global South, such as SCO, EEU, the Arab League and OPEC is to build a multipolar world. This seems to be a realistic goal. However, one should also take into consideration, that the larger these organizations become, the more heterogeneous they become and the difficulty of implementation of a common course of action will rise in line with the number of the respective members. Lastly, I would like to draw the attention to one historical fact a lot of people are not aware of. When the U.S. were at the peak of their might and forced Bretton Woods on the rest of the world, it still took 12 years until the U.S. dollar overtook the British pound in international trade in 1956. Some trends may be irreversible – but they take time. 

    *  *  *

    This article appeared in English in the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report by Swiss financial expert Marc Faber and in abbreviated form on September 21, 2023 in the print edition of Weltwoche and on Weltwoche Online in German.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/25/2023 – 00:20

  • Traders Brace For China's Property Slump To Drag For Years
    Traders Brace For China’s Property Slump To Drag For Years

    By Charlie Zhu and Helen Sun, Bloomberg Markets Live reporters and analysts

    Three things we learned last week:

    1. A multi-year property downturn looks increasingly likely as a raft of rescue measures have fallen flat. Disappointing home sales in China’s largest cities suggest policy supports have failed to turn around buyer sentiment. New home sales for the first two weeks of September in tier-one cities fell from August’s levels.

    The fallout from the property crisis is spreading to investment-grade developers. Moody’s Investors Service put China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd. and China Vanke Co. on review for possible downgrade, while lowering the outlook for seven other builders to negative.

    Onshore investors shared the view that China’s property sector is facing a multi-year downturn and are even less optimistic on the outlook for commercial properties, Zerlina Zeng, senior analyst at Credit Sights, wrote in a note. Considering China’s aging population and slowing urbanization, a mild contraction of home construction and sales is appropriate, Zeng wrote.

    Efforts to relax home-buying restrictions have continued, with 11 cities announcing such measures in September alone, according to China Index Holdings. Among the latest came from Guangzhou, which shortened the period of time non-residents need to pay tax before they’re allowed to buy homes.

    2. As property woes cast a pall over the broader market, policymakers are bolstering efforts to court investors. Key Chinese stock gauges hit new 2023 lows last week, before rebounding Friday. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of China’s developer shares posted its biggest weekly decline since mid-August, while an index of high-yield dollar bonds, mostly developers, halted a four-week advance.

    As capital flees at a pace unseen in years, the People’s Bank of China vowed to stabilize trade and improve business environment in a forum attended by top global financial institutions. China is also considering relaxing the rules that cap foreign ownership in domestic publicly traded firms, people familiar with the matter said.

    Whether those efforts will bear fruit remains unclear. While onshore shares saw its biggest inflow via the trading links on Friday since the end of July, market rebounds this year have barely lasted two weeks.

    3. For all the skepticism engulfing Chinese markets, investor faith in the local government financing vehicles seems intact, at least for now. Their bond issuance onshore jumped 50% in August from July to notch the third-highest monthly tally on record.

    While investors are betting that LGFVs will remain relatively safe in the near term given the central government’s efforts to tackle debt problems, there’s still a risk that when the music stops, someone will need to pay the price.

    In the first eight months this year, 72% of LGFVs’ bond sales were used to pay back existing debt, analysts led by Liu Yu at GF Securities Co. wrote in a report, highlighting repayment pressure.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 23:45

  • Hunter Biden Wanted To Lobby Sen. Bob Menendez On Behalf Of Foreign Client
    Hunter Biden Wanted To Lobby Sen. Bob Menendez On Behalf Of Foreign Client

    Hunter Biden and pals wanted to lobby indicted Democratic New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez on behalf of a Spanish rail company after regulators scrutinized the firm, according to emails found on Hunter’s infamous laptop.

    According to the Daily Caller, Spanish rail company Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles (CAF) hired Rosemont Seneca Partners, Hunter Biden’s investment firm, to lobby the Department of Transportation (DOT) and Amtrak in order to obtain government contracts on various railway contracts, the emails reveal.

    In fact, Hunter and pals spoke with Menendez’s office about CAF, and even arranged for meetings between CAF and DOT officials.

    CAF hired Rosemont Seneca in June 2010 and Hunter Biden’s firm appeared to discuss potential contracts with Amtrak shortly thereafter, according to the laptop archive. Biden and his associates also appeared to work with CAF on a letter sent by the Spanish ambassador to Amtrak advocating for the firm, emails show.

    Hunter Biden sat on Amtrak’s board from July 2006 to February 2009 after he was nominated by former President George W. Bush. Prior to his Amtrak position, Biden worked in former President Bill Clinton’s commerce department and at a Washington, D.C., law firm. -Daily Caller

    In July 2010, the month after they hired Rosemont Seneca, Amtrak awarded CAF’s US subsidiary a $298.1 million contract to make 130 new rail cars at an Elmira, New York plant. According to the report, Hunter’s firm appeared to have negotiated a “success fee” with CAF once the contract was announced.

    “We may very well be because we don’t have anything in writing, but my point has been that we be firm, have Hunter call the CEO and congratulate him, say we are looking forward to working with CAF as they implement the Amtrak contract and then follow it up with a letter to memorialize the success fee arrangement,” said Hunter business partner Eric Schwerin in a July 27, 2010 email.

    “IF and only if they push back let’s not let CAF make us think we didn’t do enough work to deserve the fee, as it is a minor percentage compared to what we would normally get for working on a project like this,” he added.

    Rosemont asked for a “success fee” in excess of $800,000 for their work in securing the contract.

    In early August 2010, Schwerin engaged Menendez’s office – holding a call with the Senator’s Chief-of-Staff, Daniel O’Brien.

    “Talked to Danny re: CAF and he is looking into it,” said Schwerin. “He was very interested in finding out more mainly because of Menendez’s chairing the U.S.-Spain Council. Also, mentioned they are doing an event in NY on Sept. 24th (when we will be up there for CGI anyway) with the Spanish President if you want to attend. I’ll hold the date.”

    O’Brien communicated with Hunter Biden on multiple occasions and the pair appeared to be friends. Hunter Biden emailed O’Brien in June 2010 about attending a Washington Nationals game during a conversation about his father, then-Vice President Joe Biden, attending a forum Menendez was holding with U.S. and Spanish officials, emails show.

    Hunter Biden and O’Brien spoke again in March 2011 about the younger Biden stopping by Menendez’s office, emails on the laptop archive show.

    “The Senator wants to talk to you,” O’Brien wrote March 9, 2011, and Hunter Biden proceeded to send O’Brien his new cellphone number.

    “You’ll hear a message from the Senator if you haven’t already. He felt badly due to his mistaking you for Beau. You were kind to stop by,” O’Brien said later that day. -Daily Caller

    In other emails, Hunter appeared frustrated that the “success fee” hadn’t materialized.

    “I just tell people it’s a minimum of 250k just to talk to me– you don’t show up on a call or in a room unless we are getting 20% of the deal. No overhead- no offices no salaries,” Hunter said in an email exchange regarding CAF. “I cc’d Eric b/c he gave me A big talk on how CAF really wanted him on this and didn’t really care if I was there and how we wouldn’t have to do much work and the fact he didn’t read the contract regarding success fee.”

    On September 14, 2010, Rosemont and lobbyists from the Democratic lobbying firm SKDK appeared to schedule a meeting with DOT official Peter Rogoff, after the firm was hired in early September to beef up CAF’s lobbying efforts.

    “Further to Hunter’s earlier email, the meeting between CAF and Rogoff is scheduled for Friday at 3:30pm at DOT. They are working on their message to Rogoff between now and then and hope to be able to persuade him to delay implementation of the ruling,” Schwerin wrote in a Sept. 14, 2010 email.

    “Mentioned Florida and Tomar said they are still focused on it and in fact he has gotten some calls from other consortia this week which he took as a good sign that CAF’s image has not been affected by this Houston issue. He wants our help on this still and asked that we talk after the Rogoff meeting on Friday to figure out a plan on Florida going forward,” he added.

    Menendez on Friday resigned as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee following his felony indictment for allegedly accepting bribes and providing sensitive US government information to the Government of Egypt.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 23:10

  • Scarcity Is Not Enough
    Scarcity Is Not Enough

    By Marcel Kasumovich, Deputy CIO of Coinbase Asset Management

    “We are not dependent on the ideas of a single person, but on the combined wisdom of thousands of people who are all thinking of the same problem, each doing their little bit to add to the great structure of knowledge that is gradually being erected.” Ernest Rutherford is recognized as the father of nuclear physics, and also for his appreciation that his contributions would be invisible over time if done right – others building on them would shine.

    Perhaps this is the point of Satoshi Nakamoto’s anonymity. He doesn’t matter. For bitcoin and crypto asset technologies to work requires widespread adoption from technologists to regulators and users. We are all Satoshi if bitcoin rises to reach its full potential. Could the creators be bad operators? Yes, and transparency is the solution. Bitcoin started with a bit more than 1,000 lines of code and an open architecture for all to see. And it works, with nobody in charge. 

    3,847. Those are the number of consecutive days the bitcoin network has operated without interruption. It covers an eventful decade – a global recession, a collapse in commodity markets, a freezing of the US repo market, a global pandemic, the fastest US monetary tightening in four decades, country bans of bitcoin mining, and the crypto Great Depression. Over $100 trillion dollars have settled on the bitcoin protocol over its lifetime. Remarkable. 

    It’s also the type of data that earns bitcoin the reputation as the “gold standard” of crypto asset markets. Energy is a connective tissue between gold and bitcoin. Machines and energy are needed to produce gold. Devaluation of a currency that elevates the cost of production would be captured by the local price of gold. When central banks anchored monetary policy to gold, they were anchored to those real resource constraints. 

    The parallels to bitcoin mining – computers and power – are self-evident. Bitcoin’s nominal anchor, like gold, are real resources dominated by energy. Now, investors are keen to see whether the parallels of bitcoin to gold extend to the financial world. After all, the introduction of the gold exchange traded product (ETF) was coincident with a decade-long bullish trend. Even if just a coincidence, what’s clear is that the “bitcoin standard” has institutional engagement. 

    But there is one major difference – scarcity. When the price of gold is high relative to its cost of production, there is an incentive to hunt for new gold reserves to mine. Supply rises. It’s a law of any market. Bitcoin has no supply response. When profits are high, more computers enter the network, and the bitcoin algorithm makes mining more difficult. The energy cost of bitcoin rises, and profits fall to push weakest miners out of the network. 

    And difficulty has surged. It’s a sign of maturity. Bitcoin mining difficulty is up nearly 60% this year and is more than double from the 2022 highs in the price of bitcoin. The secular rise in bitcoin mining difficulty means the market is becoming more efficient, more institutional than previous cycles. Part of the surge in mining difficulty is computers entering the market in anticipation of “the halving,” collecting rewards before they are reduced by 50% next year. 

    Bitcoin inflation is cut by half every four years or so. There will only ever be 21 million in bitcoin supply, and 92% is already in circulation. April 16, 2024 is the approximate date of the next bitcoin halving, which will reduce the bitcoin inflation rate to less than 1%. Bitcoin miners and investors are excited by the historical precedent – the price of bitcoin rose 25% on average starting from two months before past halvings and 60% three months after the event. 

    Not bad. But this is only the fourth cycle – it’s a small sample. Figure 1 illustrates halving cycles for bitcoin and her “silver equivalent”, litecoin. The data are a visual reminder that scarcity isn’t enough to make prices rise. Litecoin enjoyed a sharp price spike before its most recent halving on August 2, 2023, then fizzled out. Scarcity without being useful is pointless. I produce plenty of music that is scarce…and valueless. There needs to be demand.

    Where’s the demand for bitcoin? The most natural is as a payment rail. The numbers are staggering. The top 100 bitcoin transactions in the past 24 hours sum to nearly $10 billion at an average cost of less than 2 basis points. Spectacular technology. What’s built on top of the bitcoin protocol will define its user experience, like the Lightning Network that allows for virtually costless micro transactions. But similar to gold, its store of value could detract it from its utility. 

    Gold is a remarkable conductor of electricity – it’s not afraid of oxygen, unlike copper. But gold’s price has largely destroyed its industrial use-case. Could bitcoin see the same fate? Long-term holders of bitcoin are at record highs – reluctant sellers for all of the right reasons. But how can bitcoin become ubiquitous when the top 100 of owners control 15% of its value? It can’t. But it can play the role of gold in the crypto ecosystem – the standing benchmark. And that’s the top of the heap in crypto asset markets. Halving or not. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 22:35

  • Senator Shocked By Classified Briefing On Ukraine: Warhawks Want Blank Check With No Victory In Sight
    Senator Shocked By Classified Briefing On Ukraine: Warhawks Want Blank Check With No Victory In Sight

    Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), known for his efforts to force the Biden Administration to declassify information related to covid’s possible lab origins at Wuhan, exited a classified briefing this week on the situation in Ukraine and expressed a feeling of shock.

    “If there is some path to victory in Ukraine, I didn’t hear it today. I also heard that there’s going to be no end to the funding requests…”

    Hawley went on to indicate that Americans will be asked to spend hundreds of billions more dollars in the region with an indefinite blank check in place to protect “US standing” on the world stage.  Zelensky asked Biden and Congress for another $24 billion during his latest visit, stating that if Ukraine doesn’t get the aid, they will lose the war.  The information at hand suggests that Ukraine is going to lose the war anyway.

    Hawley also revealed that the public is being lied to about the war footing in the region and that Ukraine is definitely ‘not winning.’  This information confirms what many Americans already suspected, with 55% of the public now in opposition to more aid according to recent polls. 

    The corporate media blitzkrieg bombarding the populace with tales of imminent Ukrainian victory against Russian forces has lost its momentum and reality is starting to set in.  Though, this did not stop journalists from trying to insert their list of debunked talking points into the interview as they seemed to debate Hawley more than ask him questions.

    These debate points have long been a part of the media’s narrative but none of them have held water so far.  Assertions of an inevitable “domino effect” leading to a Russian invasion of Europe should Ukraine fall are reminiscent of the same false claims made during the Vietnam War.  There is no evidence to indicate Russia has plans to attack Poland or any other NATO member, with Putin obviously aware of the danger of nuclear conflict.  As Hawley points out, the warhawks can’t have it both ways – They can’t claim that arming Ukraine has led to the degradation of Russian forces “on the cheap”, and at the same time claim that Russia is strong enough to then overrun Europe should Ukraine lose.

    Another disturbing takeaway from this argument is the notion that Ukrainian citizens need to be used as cost effective human shields to prevent a wider war between Russia and NATO.  It is the same claim that Zelensky has been making for the past year in order to frighten the western populace into throwing billions more dollars into Ukrainian coffers – “$100 billion and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives will buy you the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Russians.  A proxy war is lot cheaper than engaging in a direct war with them…”

    But why entertain a war with Russia at all?  A false choice has been presented – Either Americans support a proxy war against Russia, or be forced to fight a direct war.    

    So far, there has been no quantifiable benefits for the western public.  It is clear, however, that there are elements of the establishment that desire an ongoing conflict with Russia.  The anti-Russian rhetoric began in 2016 well before the war in Ukraine.  Propaganda surrounding Donald Trump and “Russiagate” has been thoroughly debunked. Most of the “evidence” presented to prove that the 2016 election was manipulated by Russia was in fact fabricated by groups under the watch of Democrat operatives and some Neo-cons. Of course, the aftermath of the propaganda convinced a large portion of the public (most of them on the political left) that Russia was a predator lurking at their door waiting to strike.

    Hawley also notes that while public attentions have been directed at Russia, China is a much more viable threat and any effort to prevent them from invading Taiwan would at this stage be futile.  The truth is, neither war is a winnable prospect for the US or NATO given the economic instability at play; a conflagration between East and West would be disastrous for both sides, but western populations have the furthest to fall.  Clearly there are people within our government that see this as a good thing as they continue to press geopolitical tensions closer and closer to WWIII.        

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 22:00

  • CDC Refuses To Release Updated Information On Post-COVID Vaccination Heart Inflammation
    CDC Refuses To Release Updated Information On Post-COVID Vaccination Heart Inflammation

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is refusing to release updated information on reported cases of myocarditis and pericarditis following COVID-19 vaccination.

    COVID-19 vaccines can cause the inflammatory conditions, the CDC has confirmed previously.

    The agency has regularly conveyed the number of post-vaccination myocarditis and pericarditis cases to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which it helps manage, as it has consulted with its advisers on updates to the vaccines.

    But during a meeting on Sept. 12, the CDC did not mention VAERS data.

    Asked for the information, a CDC spokesman pointed to a CDC study that covers data only through Oct. 23, 2022.

    That study identified nine reports of myocarditis or pericarditis following vaccination with one of the bivalent COVID-19 vaccines, which were introduced in September 2022. Seven of the reports were verified by medical review.

    Asked for more current data, the spokesman acknowledged the agency has it but is not making it public.

    “When appropriate, the updated safety data will be published,” the spokesman told The Epoch Times in an email.

    He did not answer when asked why the meeting was not an appropriate time.

    “The CDC has acknowledged that heart inflammation is a complication of mRNA COVID-19 shots and, yet, the only published data released by CDC officials about that complication is a seven week study that ended on Oct. 23, 2022. Where is more specific myocarditis/pericarditis data related to bivalent COVID shots for the past 10 months?” Barbara Loe Fisher, co-founder and president of the National Vaccine Information Center, told The Epoch Times via email.

    The mRNA shots are made by Pfizer and Moderna. Novavax’s updated shot, which uses different technology, has not yet been authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

    “I am tired of the CDC and FDA deciding what information the public needs and doesn’t need. This is precisely the information that parents need to have especially when there are still schools and activities mandating these shots. This is evil playing out right before our eyes,” Kim Witczak, a drug safety advocate who runs the nonprofit Woodymatters, told The Epoch Times in an email.

    She added, “The CDC’s response of ‘when appropriate, the updated safety data will be published’ is unacceptable and they wonder why there is vaccine hesitancy and lack of trust in public health officials.”

    Presentation

    During the recent meeting, CDC officials and their partners presented data on the bivalent shots to their advisory panel, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. The advisers were considering which groups should be recommended to get one of the new COVID-19 vaccines, which were cleared by regulators with scant clinical trial data.

    Dr. Nicola Klein, a Kaiser Permanente doctor who works closely with the CDC, gave a presentation (pdf) on COVID-19 vaccine safety. She presented data from the Vaccine Safety Datalink, a monitoring system that covers a much smaller population than VAERS.

    Dr. Klein said that two cases of myocarditis after bivalent vaccination were detected in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) through March 11. It’s not clear why more current data were not presented. Dr. Klein did not respond to a request for comment. The cases did not trigger a safety signal among adults, Dr. Klein said.

    The presented data were widely cited by doctors quoted in news outlets, including Dr. Andrew Pavia, who told a briefing that there did not appear to be a “detectable risk” of the bivalent shots causing myocarditis.

    “What I was conveying is that in the era of the bivalent vaccine, the number of cases has fallen to where it no longer is giving a signal that is detectable,” Dr. Pavia, chief of the University of Utah’s Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, told The Epoch Times in an email. In response to how he could say that with the missing VAERS data, he said “the strongest data are from the controlled studies like the VSD where you have built in controls.”

    Through Sept. 8, 98 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis were reported to VAERS following bivalent vaccination, according to a search of the system by The Epoch Times.

    While anybody can lodge a report with VAERS, research has shown most reports are entered by health care providers. People who submit false information can face prosecution.

    Five reports were for people aged 6 to 17 years while another 13 were for people aged 18 to 29.

    When presenting to the panel, CDC official Megan Wallace said, “There are limited data to inform the myocarditis risk following an updated mRNA dose.” She did not mention the cases reported to VAERS but alleged the benefits of the vaccines outweigh the risks, even for young, healthy males. The Vaccine Safety Datalink, she acknowledged, did have a “relatively lower sample size” of recipients.

    Panel members were taken by the data. Dr. Oliver Brooks said “Feel good about the fact that in the bivalent we saw no signal from myocarditis,” he said after the presentation. “Very important.” Dr. Brooks, chief medical officer at Watts Healthcare Corporation, did not respond to an inquiry.

    Dr. Pablo Sanchez, the only member to recommend against a widespread recommendation, said the risk of myocarditis was a reason.

    “I think we really need to level with our patients and say what is known and unknown, rather than make a complete recommendation,” he said, “especially for some groups that there are limited data.”

    The labels for the new vaccines say they can cause myocarditis.

    “Postmarketing data with authorized or approved mRNA COVID-19 vaccines demonstrate increased risks of myocarditis and pericarditis, particularly within the first week following vaccination,” the labels state. While some people have recovered, others have not. The labels also say, “Information is not yet available about potential long-term sequelae.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 21:25

  • China's 300% Debt And Dilemmas
    China’s 300% Debt And Dilemmas

    By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

    Summary

    • China’s combined debt (Government, corporate and household) is more than 300% of GDP
    • China’s local government debt has been rising sharply for years and is seen as a key risk among investors in Asia.
    • With declining income from land sales and increasing expenditures to service these high levels of debt, financial risks for local governments are increasing.
    • Local government finance vehicles add to high levels of debt. We estimate that total local government debt is CNY 106.7 tn or USD 14.6 tn.
    • Some local governments are scaling down government services and salaries of workers 
    • High levels of local government debt is likely to put a drain on economic growth for some time to come.

    Introduction

    Local governments have been a pillar of China’s economic growth model for decades. Land-sales for (commercial) real estate projects, infrastructure investments of all sorts and controlling the allocation of credit to State Owned Enterprises (SOE) have significantly contributed to economic growth. But recently, more and more investors and analysts alike worry about the sustainability of the high levels of local government debt. While the problems in the real estate sector have received much attention in the past two years, the high levels of local government debt have been somewhat overlooked, even as they are currently considered a key risk for economic growth and financial stability for 2023 and beyond. Indeed, the problems in the real estate sector are part and parcel of the problem that local governments are facing right now, but clearly there is a lot more to it. With local governments being responsible for the vast majority of total tax expenditures (estimated at almost 88% in 2023), this creates potential challenges for maintaining robust economic growth. Moreover, holders of local government bonds or bonds issued by local government finance vehicles (LGFV) might run significant credit risks.

    This paper will specifically try to assess the financial situation of China’s local governments and tries to answer the question whether and to what extent the levels of local government debts are indeed alarming. We make an estimate of China’s total local government debt by comparing official data of local government debt (where available) with all outstanding local government bonds. We analyse over 11.000 securities to determine local debt to GDP for the relevant administrative levels and determine weighted average maturities and weighted average yields for the respective administrative levels. We also include all outstanding so called Chengtou bonds, i.e. urban construction development bonds. The next step is to look at corporate bonds which also include so called Municipal Corporate Bonds (MCB). We finalise our analysis by looking at balances from the financial sector (excluding the shadow banking sector) to estimate the amount of ‘hidden debt’. We conclude that for some regions there is cause for concern. At best, mitigating measures to deal with the high amount of debt is likely to weigh on China’s future growth potential.

    China’s overall debt situation

    China’s miraculous path of economic growth and development has received praise all over the world. Never in history was a country so successful in pulling hundreds of millions of people out of levels of absolute poverty. Clearly this could not have been realized without huge amounts of foreign and domestic investments. In other words, money was needed and lots of it. Money that also needed to be borrowed.

    While borrowing money makes a lot of sense when the rate of return exceeds the costs including the costs of servicing this debt, this obviously is not always the case. In the case of China, some of the money that has been borrowed has ended up to be speculative borrowing. This includes the real estate sector, households (mainly real estate), poor investment projects by corporates and overambitious local governments that felt the need to simply make good on their economic growth targets by investing in real estate- and infrastructure projects.

    Of course investing inevitably comes with risks attached and therefore some losses will have to be incurred. However, at certain levels of debt, the level itself can become a problem regardless of the quality of the loans that have been provided. Liquidity problems, for instance, can occur despite a high quality asset portfolio. Regardless, with a total level of debt of more than 300% of GDP it is clear that China’s fast rising levels of debt need to be brought under control. As can be seen from the graph below, in less than 20-years total debt-to-GDP more than doubled. Moreover, the metric shown in figure 1 is considerably lower both in the US and the Eurozone that -according to the BIS definition – have debt levels of respectively 265% and 255% of GDP

    Local Government debt levels

    No one knows the weight of another one’s burden

    In April this year the total level of government debt was estimated at around USD 23 trillion or CNY 152tn. From this estimate, around 60% (CNY 91.7tn) is assigned as implicit government debt, i.e debt that doesn’t count as ‘official’ government debt. The absence of official data on borrowing by local governments via non-marketable assets has led to a broad range of estimates of what the total size of outstanding implicit debt issued by LGFVs could be.

    According to the estimate above, CNY 60tn, or USD 9tn is to be assigned to LGFVs. An estimate by the Wall Street Journal amounts to USD 7tn, while the IMF estimated total LGFV debt at 50% of China’s GDP, which would also amount to approximately USD 9 tn. Wind estimated the total amount of outstanding LGFV debt at almost USD8tn at the end of 2021. The uncertainties that surround these estimates of the amount of implicit government debt plague both onshore and offshore bond markets for LGFV’s. These uncertainties also have received attention from China’s top leadership and recently it became known that China has started a nationwide effort to reveal the amount of hidden debt.

    Doing the math: estimates, caveats and assumptions

    Of course some of these differences between the estimates can be attributed to changes in the exchange rate, date of measurement or methodology. However, as we have flagged several times, China analysts often need to come up with proxies and estimates since fewer and fewer data is being published. So with this warning, we will explain our methodology, assumptions and estimates below.

    In order to estimate the total amount of local government debt we will add up:

    1. the total amount of local government bonds outstanding,
    2. the amount of Chengtou bonds outstanding,
    3. an estimate of outstanding MCB’s, and
    4. our proxy for non-marketable local government loans (via financial sector)

    To estimate the latter, we look at banking balances of depository corporations, foreign funded banks, rural credit cooperatives, and finance companies. We then select their claims on governments and claims to non-financial corporations.

    While we are aware of the fact that not all non-financial corporations are state-owned, the total amount is relatively small compared to the claims on governments (figure 5 below). Furthermore, we also acknowledge that there are more ways in which local governments can finance themselves so that simply looking at the financial sector’s claims on governments likely underestimates total non-marketable local government debt. Furthermore, we assume that all claims on government are claims on local governments and that the central government doesn’t fund itself via non-marketable loans. In the following four sections we will simply provide the outcomes of our analyses. For those interested in our methodology we refer to the appendix at the end of this publication.

    Local government bonds

    Official local government debt is measured by simply adding up all outstanding amounts of bonds issued directly by local governments. This debt adds up to CNY 37.05tn on March 2023.

    As we already mentioned above and as figure 4 shows, only CNY 17bn of central government debt is in the form of loans. Since this amount is negligible in comparison to the total we will not correct for this amount when analyzing loans to local governments. Figure 5 shows total outstanding corporate debt of which we assume that SOE’s account for 75% of outstanding corporate bonds. We further assume that 40% of these bonds can be assigned to LGFV.

    Finally, figure 6 provides an overview of the financial sector’s claims on government excluding the shadow banking system which generally owns bonds which we exclude to avoid double counting since the bonds that they own are already included in our analyses. As with corporate bonds, we assume that 75% of financial claims on NFC can be assigned to SOE’s of which 40% can be assigned to LGFV. This adds up to CNY 55.6tn. When we add up all 4 separate categories the total amount of local government debt amounts to CNY 106.7tn or $14.6tn (based on a USD/CNH exchange rate of 7.3.

    A double-edged budgetary sword

    But for some local governments problems seem to go further than fast growing levels of debt. Local governments have consistently run budget deficits for years as can be seen from figure 7 and 8 below. With debt levels growing, so has the share of local government budgets that needs to be spent on interest payments on those debts. Moreover, with declining revenues from land sales as a result of the real estate crisis, local government budgets have become even more strained. While funding has generally become cheaper (see figure 9) it remains to be seen whether this trend will hold. Should market participants start to question the credit worthiness of local governments, this trend could quickly reverse.

    Additionally, it is important to bear in mind that these lower levels of average yields have to be paid on a much larger amount of nominal debt. To be more specific, while in 2020 yields for standard bonds averaged around 3.50% and in 2023 approximately 3.35%, the total amount of outstanding debt went up from CNY 24tn to CNY 37tn.

    This means that in 2020 total interest to be paid on outstanding standard government bonds amounted to CNY 840bn while in 2023 this would already be CNY 1,240bn. To summarize – total (interest rate) expenditures have gone up while (potential) revenues have gone down, creating a double-edged budgetary sword.

    In some cases we now see that this leads to challenges for some local governments to continue to provide the usual level of government services. This could mean the delay of the salary payments for (local)government workers, lower pension benefits or downscaling of healthcare services. But local governments are also urging local companies to repay their (overdue) debts. More extreme incidents have also been reported, such as fining a restaurateur for $700 for serving a cucumber dish. For obvious reasons we assume that the more indebted regional governments run the highest risk of needing to cut expenditures or worse default.

    Figure 10 shows the ratio of debt to GDP for local governments. It is important to consider that China distinguishes different levels of local government. While the constitution identifies three levels of government, in practice there are five. Here, we mainly focus at the provincial level which includes provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities and special administrative regions. Furthermore we have included a few prefecture level cities that have issued their own bonds, such as Beijing and Shanghai.

    From the graph above it becomes clear that official local government debt to local GDP ratios differ wildly, from less than 10% in Shenzhen to almost 90% in Qinghai. Furthermore, if we look at the financially more vulnerable regions in 2020, we see that in 2023 not much has changed. Qinghai, Yunnan and Guizhou are still the most vulnerable regions with debt to fiscal revenue reaching 1087% in Yunnan in 2022 meaning that it would require almost 11 years of revenues to pay off Yunnan’s local government debt. Most vulnerable regions are located in the North- and South-West of China, while China’s economically vibrant East coast are generally characterized by significantly healthier debt ratio’s. As such, these regions look a lot more able to raise tax revenues. They also have more valuable assets to sell if that would ever be needed.

    It is important to realize that according to the local government debt risk emergency response plan article 4.1 ‘Local governments are responsible for repaying debts they borrow, and the central government implements the principle of no bailout’. In general, the debt emergency response is dependent on the severity of the specific debt risk event but we will not elaborate much further on the legal technicalities here. The key point is that a central government bailout of a local government that risks falling into default, is anything but certain.

    When we zoom in further on the amount of outstanding official local government debt, we see that, whilst there is a positive relationship between the average maturities and yields, the relative financial vulnerability of a region or province is not necessarily reflected in weighted average yields. An important reason for this is the assumption by investors that official local government debt has an implicit guarantee from the central government. But as we have concluded above, it remains to be seen whether and, if so, to what extent, the central government will bail out local governments.

    Having calculated the weighted average yield we can also obtain an estimate of the amount of interest that is needed to service these outstanding official local government debts. Since we also know the total level of local government expenditures – which amounts to CNY 23.67tn – we can obtain the average percentage of debt servicing expenditures compared to total expenditures.

    Our calculations show that almost exactly 4% of total official local government expenditures is spent on interest of outstanding official local government debt. Needless to say that there are significant differences between regions. Since we do not have data about individual local government budgets we calculate our estimation of debt servicing costs per region by assuming that local government budgets are divided equally based on the weight that a certain region has in total GDP. This gives us the following estimates.

    While it is clear that the assumptions that we made only lead to an approximation of the true financial situation for local governments, the most fragile local governments are the usual suspects. In a previous publication that investigated the link between higher rates and government finances we assumed that if a (local) government has to spend more than 10% of the total expenditure budget to service existing levels of debt, this starts to put (local) government finances under pressure. We apply this threshold on our analyses as well. As can be observed from our estimates this includes 7 of the 36 regions. Based on an average level of debt servicing of 7.2% which is the average level of bonds rated BB by Fitch, 19 regions would face financial challenges. However it is important to realize that we included redemptions for the whole of 2024. This means that if we had used a 12 month window the outcomes would be slightly lower.

    Recent developments

    Looking at the most recent developments, China appears to have decided to double down on the same path that we have become so accustomed to; i.e. let local governments borrow more money to spend more on infrastructure. Indeed, as recently as 31 August it became clear that local governments are accelerating the pace of borrowing (which is not visible in figure 3 above since these are the special bonds/Chengtou bonds discussed previously). Local governments are accelerating issuance to meet their 2023 targets and are expected to raise the remainder of the 2023 target of CNY 3.8tn before the end of this month according to minister of finance Liu Kun. This would mean that local governments still have to issue approximately CNY 800bn to meet this target.

    Furthermore, local governments that have not used their quota in previous years are allowed to issuance additional bonds. It is estimated that this could free up an additional amount of CNY 1tn which would then be used for debt swaps, i.e. issuing a bond to pay of bank loans or other forms of non-standard/non marketable loans. However, as we have discussed in previous publications, new infrastructure projects increasingly provide diminishing marginal returns on investments made. Additionally, while refinancing can put further pressure on average yields (figure 8), the total amount of debt is likely to increase by another 1.8tn regardless.

    So what is next?

    Now that we have obtained an overview of the ins and outs of China’s local government debt situation it is time to reflect on what this means for China’s economy. First, we conclude that -based on our benchmark assumption that a (local) government that spends more than 10% of the total budget on debt servicing is financially fragile – a significant share of China’s local governments have or are approaching risky levels of debt.

    If the current trend of increasing debt levels continues, we believe it is a matter of time before a significant share of local governments will run into financial difficulties. At this moment it is mainly the fragile liquidity position that local governments are struggling with. While the PBOC can provide for extra liquidity in the financial system by lowering the 7-day RRR for example, it should be clear that this will not offer a structural solution.

    Although higher taxes would increase local government revenues, it could also put further downward pressure on consumer demand. Currently, total consumption is already at low levels contributing only 38% to total GDP growth. If Beijing would be serious about reforming their economic model from a purely export-based economy to an economy of dual circulation – i.e. remaining open for trade and investments (external circulation) while prioritizing domestic demand (internal circulation) – raising taxes is not a policy that would help achieving that goal. Remember that China also postponed the imposition of a real estate tax in order not to aggravate the real estate crisis. Increased revenues from land sales are also not to be expected in the foreseeable future. So, with limited possibilities to raise local government revenues we are left with a number of other options. In no particular order, these options are:

    • cut local government spending
    • blend and extend operations of the current outstanding debt
    • a bail-out of highly indebted local governments by the central government
    • defaulting on debt by local governments

    To date, no bond defaults have yet occurred, but local governments have already defaulted on nonstandard debt in several cases. As long as there is no risk to the broader financial system we do not expect that Beijing will come to the rescue when a local government would not be able to service its debt obligations anymore.

    While some local governments have reigned in spending as we discussed above, they are also pressed to issue more debt and prop up spending. So cutting local government spending does not seem to be Beijing’s preferred strategy. Indeed, we think that blend and extend operations will turn out to be the preferred and most likely policy.

    In this case, major state banks will be asked to be lenient towards local governments and the PBOC will support those state banks. This could be done by adjusting interest rate policies and/or lowering the required reserve ratio – currently at 7.6% for relevant banks (not all banks have the same RRR as this depends on the size of the balance sheet). Indeed we do see an high chance of the PBOC lowering the RRR this month.

    No crisis, but weighing on growth all the same

    In other words, those who are waiting for a big bazooka will likely be disappointed. However, we also do not expect an uncontrolled crisis that would put the financial system as a whole in danger. First of all because it can simply be avoided. China still has considerable amounts of foreign reserves and also has the means to increase tax revenue if necessary. Although this would go at the cost of domestic consumption. Additionally, an uncontrolled collapse would come with socioeconomic instability which is something that Beijing wants to prohibit at all costs.

    In the end the current local government debt situation is an example of “choose your poison”. Losses are likely to be divided between bond holders and banks. While the amount of offshore bonds is limited, the holders of those bonds are likely to be the first ones to get hit with a haircut as we have seen in the real estate sector already. So in the end we expect a combination of different measures. The tool of preference is likely to be blend and extent operations. Still, a blend and extent approach would mean that the fragile financial position of local governments will continue to weigh on economic growth for a long time to come.

    We also expect some defaults to occur and here the hybrid bonds, which invest in multiple (commercial) projects, seem to be the most risky bonds given the fact that the government is less likely to save SOE’s. Indeed the bonds that are most likely to be eligible for a bail out are bonds that are officially regarded as local government debt. Regardless, China’s economy is likely to be at the start of a long process of deleveraging that will suppress economic growth for years to come.

    Appendix

    Methodology

    Official local government debt (issued bonds)

    Starting with the official total amount of debt for local governments we see that this stood at CNY 37.05tn (USD 5.17tn) in March this year. Again, this figure excludes so-called Chengtou bonds and non-standard/non-marketable products which are generally bank loans or private placements to local governments made by (local) banks.

    When looking at the development of this narrow definition of outstanding local government debt we still see that the absolute level of debt has almost doubled over the last four years. While it is understandable that government debt has risen given the huge health care costs and the government stimulus that had to be provided during the Covid Pandemic, the current pace of increasing levels of debt is unlikely to be sustainable in the future.

    Chengtou Bonds

    When including Chengtou bonds, which unlike ‘normal’ local government bonds are often issued for specific urban construction development purposes, we obtain a more accurate picture of local government’s total amount of outstanding debt. Chengtou bonds can be separated in two different classes: quintessential and hybrid bonds. In both cases the ownership is in the hands of local government entities, but hybrid bonds hold more diversified assets and as such are more similar to SOEs. This means that a hybrid bond can invest in both public as well as in private projects.

    The idea of issuing hybrid bonds was initially stimulated by the central government to raise revenues in order to decrease reliance on local government finances. However this also led to excessive risk taking. Furthermore, from the central governments point of view, hybrids are deemed less important than the quintessential bonds that solely finance collective projects. This heightens the credit risk on hybrid bonds. Until recently, there was a tendency to attract more capital from abroad via offshore Chengtou bonds, but the Fed rate hiking cycle has made this form of funding increasingly less interesting.

    Bloomberg data suggest that at the moment of writing there are 11,517 outstanding onshore securities which amount to CNY 8,818bn. When we include offshore bonds this amounts to 12,047 securities, adding up to CNY 8,887bn. Together with the amount of official outstanding government debt this totals approximately CNY 46tn of debt or about USD6.5tn. This still falls way short of the estimates by other institutions.

    Municipal Corporate Bonds (MCB)

    This is largely because we have not included non-standard/non-marketable government debt and MCB. We will first outline our assumptions behind our estimation of the more hidden part of local government debt. First, when we look at how the central government funds itself, we see that the vast majority of central government’s cash intake comes from issuing bonds.

    In figure 4 one can observe that, indeed, only a bit more than CNY 17bn is funded through (bank) loans. We therefore assume, for simplicity, that all net claims on government are bank loans to local governments. We also include all claims on non-financial corporations since many SOEs are qualified as non-financial corporations. Indeed the bonds that are issued via LGFV’s are also known as MCB’s.

    While these bonds are initially traded via the interbank market, the majority are held by wealth managers and the shadow banking system. We exclude the shadow banking sector since we have already included all bonds that have been issued by local governments (see figure 3) and we are not focusing on credit exposure in this special. Moreover, we have no means to analyse this sector because (reliable) data is absent. Finally we also exclude debt secured by stocks given that it is not considered government debt for domestic creditors according to article 3.3.3 subsection 1 which says: … “Stock secured debt is not government debt. According to the Guarantee Law of the People’s Republic of China and its judicial interpretations, except for loans from foreign governments and international economic organizations, the guarantee contracts issued by local governments and their departments are invalid, and the local government and its departments shall not bear the liability for debt repayment”…

    This leaves us with estimating which share of corporate bonds should be considered as local government debt. Many estimate that as much as 40%-50% of outstanding corporate bonds are related to local government debt. The total amount of outstanding corporate bonds in China is about CNY 60tn (based on Bloomberg data). However these outstanding corporate bonds also include many Chinese banks. The Asian Development Bank reports an outstanding amount of local currency bonds for the corporate sector at CNY 44.4tn so we use this amount for our analysis. According to a IMF paper from 2019, SOE’s account for 75% of non-financial corporate debt. This would imply that 75% of CNY 44.4tn is in scope. Staying on the conservative side, and in line with other approximations, we estimate that 40% of this debt is related to LGFV’s. This amounts to CNY 13.3tn of outstanding local government debt. However we have to subtract the outstanding amount of Chengtou bonds since these are incorporated in the total amount of outstanding corporate bonds. This leaves us with CNY 4.3tn of additional outstanding debt.

    Non-marketable debt (loans by financial sector)

    We can now come up with our estimate/proxy of the banking sector’s exposure to local government debt. In figure 5 it can be seen that depository corporations by far hold most claims on government. The total amount is CNY 51.1tn. We keep the claims on NFC constant since data is only available until 2022. Similar to the assumption that we made earlier, we include 75% of this debt (6tn) as exposure to SOE’s. This amounts to CNY 4.5tn in additional exposure. We estimate that the financial sector’s total exposure to local governments amounts to roughly CNY 55.25tn which is close to USD 7.6tn. This is actually very comparable with other estimates that we referred to above.

    If we add this up to the numbers in our previous findings this would amount to a total amount of local government debt of CNY 106.7tn or close to USD 14.6tn. This is higher than the CNY 95tn (or USD 13.2tn) estimate based on an analysis by Goldman Sachs.

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    Clearly these changes can be explained by differences in methodology and a different time of measurement. As the graph below shows, the claims that depository corporations have on the government rose from CNY 47.6tn in December 2022 to 51.14tn in July 2023; an increase of almost 7.5%. This already explains almost CNY 4tn difference.

    (Also available in pdf format to pro subs here)

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 20:50

  • "Don't Be Intimidated" By The Censors – Tucker Carlson Urges Americans To Fight Back By 'Telling The Truth'
    “Don’t Be Intimidated” By The Censors – Tucker Carlson Urges Americans To Fight Back By ‘Telling The Truth’

    In a brief clip of him speaking in Utica, MI, Tucker Carlson expresses his deep concern over widespread acceptance of dishonesty in public life, lamenting, “what’s true? The true things are the things that you can’t say.”

    The former Fox News man rages at the lack of penalties for public figures who lie or display incompetence; contrasting this with the societal backlash against those who aim to speak their own truths, suggesting that in today’s society, “the only penalty is for noting what’s true.”

    “Every society penalizes something…” In America, “it’s telling the truth.”

    Drawing a parallel with foreign (banana republic) governments, Carlson recounts a recent experience in Buenos Aires that exposed the government’s dishonesty about the Argentine peso’s exchange rate. He emphasizes, “so the government lies about the value of its own currencies,” reflecting on the economic lies and falsehoods and manipulations (think non-farm payrolls jobs data revised lower every month this year for instance) of the US government.

    Further into the speech, he points out the pattern of backlash he believes truth-tellers face, noting, “first they’ll tell you you’re hurting someone’s feelings… then they call you insane… the third thing they do is just criminalize telling the truth.”

    He raises concerns about the role of significant U.S. institutions like the FBI and CIA, alleging they are partisan, and mentions, “when federal employees… take an aggressive position on the side of one political party, you can’t have a fair election.”

    Lastly, he touches upon the 2020 U.S. presidential election, suggesting potential irregularities and fraud, blasting tech oligarchs’ influence in silencing the truth-sayers.

    “If some oligarchs… spent nearly half a billion dollars to control the mechanics of the Bolivian election in 2020, we would say it’s not a legitimate election.”

    Tucker closes by encouraging Americans to stand up against the censors: “don’t let them,” he exclaims, urging listeners “don’t be intimidated, your children’s future depends on your bravery.”

    Watch the full speech below:

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 20:15

  • 25 Years Ago Today, Two Nobel Laureates Received A $3.6 Billion Bailout, Launching Too Big To Fail
    25 Years Ago Today, Two Nobel Laureates Received A $3.6 Billion Bailout, Launching Too Big To Fail

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    Twenty-five years ago today, two Nobel laureate economists and a famous bond trader received a $3.65bln bailout from fourteen financial institutions at the behest of the Federal Reserve.

    LTCM had delivered a 21% net return in its first year. 43% in the second. 41% in the third. Greed, hubris, leverage, illiquidity, and lack of imagination led to the inevitable.

    A year later, Japan cut rates to zero, started QE in 2001. This sparked the introduction of ever more powerful policy tools to address crises, which manifested regularly, with growing intensity. Decades passed. There appeared no limit to what could be achieved using such exciting new tools.

    But of course, that was simply the start of the latest chapter. In the oldest story ever told.

    * * *

    I would say you know ‘sufficiently restrictive’ only when you see it,” said the Fed Chairman at Wednesday’s press conference, echoing Supreme Court Justice Goldberg, who in 1964 drew a blurred line between art and obscenity in motion pictures.

    “It’s not something you can arrive at with confidence in a model or in various estimates, you know,” continued Powell, a big fat crayon in his breast pocket. “I think confidence comes from seeing, you know, enough data that you feel like, yes, okay, this feels like we can for now decide that this is the right level and just agree to stay here,” explained Jay, terrified to admit how the discussion amongst his twelve governors had gone.

    Unable to quite articulate their definition of ‘sufficiently restrictive,’ the committee members drew pictures instead.

    “Nonetheless, you know, we need to get to a place where we’re confident that we have a stance that will bring inflation down to 2 percent over time,” said Powell to the room of reporters, still haunted by the drawings of his fellow board members, images that could not be unseen.

    Naturally, many of them included depictions of the years spent with policy tied to the zero lower bound, printing presses burring, purring, moaning under the strain of lifting consumer prices by a few tenths of a percent to achieve an utterly arbitrary target.

    The resulting wild economic distortions, inhuman contortions, crept in the shadows, suppressed for years. Then came the virus, masks, debt fueled consumption, gluttony, global conflict.

    The twelve drawings were at once beautiful, grotesque, enigmatic, an insult to the senses. But not a single image helped the Chairman put his finger on what exactly it meant to be sufficiently restrictive.

    And this left Jay grasping, uncertain how he’d ever return us to a state of normality, prudence.

    But no matter, a Fed Chairman’s job is to convey confidence, pretend. “As we’ve gotten closer to it, we’ve slowed the pace at which we’ve moved. I think that was appropriate. And now that we’re getting closer, again, we have the ability to proceed carefully.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 19:40

  • Washington Is Fighting Against Emergence Of "Genuine Multipolar World Order": Lavrov Tells UN
    Washington Is Fighting Against Emergence Of “Genuine Multipolar World Order”: Lavrov Tells UN

    In his speech before the UN General Assembly on Saturday which broadly presented Moscow’s viewpoint on the state of global affairs, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov frequently lambasted the West while actually mentioning Ukraine very little. 

    These are familiar themes, sounded by Putin himself on many occasions recently, seen in the following statement of Lavrov’s: “The US and its subordinate Western collective are continuing to fuel conflicts which artificially divide humanity into hostile blocks and hamper the achievement of overall aims,” he said. “They’re doing everything they can to prevent the formation of a genuine multipolar world order.”

    via United Nations, file image

    The top Russian diplomat added: “They are trying to force the world to play according to their own self-centered rules.”

    Another key emphasis was that the West and NATO’s role in Ukraine has gone well beyond just a hybrid or proxy war, but it’s actually become a “direct” war – given the heavy weapons being provided, targeting assistance given to Kiev, intelligence-sharing, and the fact that Russian soil is now being frequently hit, often by foreign weapons.

    Below is a further sampling of key moments and quotes from Lavrov’s speech before the assembly…

    Direct War

    US is “effectively engaged in hostilities with us, using the Ukrainians as fodder.”

    “You can call this whatever you want to call this, but they are directly at war with us,” he said. “We call this a hybrid war. But that doesn’t change the reality.”

    “Empire of Lies”

    Americans and Europeans are engaged in “quasi-colonial methods of subjugation.”

    “Our future is being shaped by a struggle, a struggle between the global majority, in favor of a fair distribution of global benefits… and the few who wield near-colonial methods of subjugation in order to maintain their dominance, which is slipping through their fingers.”

    “The collective West has … long rejected the principle of equality, looking down to the rest of the world.”

    “As [Russian President Vladimir] Putin pointed out, the West is the one who is truly an empire of lies.”

    Provoking Food & Energy Crises

    “Unilateral coercive measures” – or sanctions – on weaker nations have provoked a global food and energy crisis.

    “We continue to insist on a swift and full cessation of the US’s unprecedented and inhumane blockade of Cuba and the lifting of the absurd decision to declare Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism,” he said, while also mentioning the same for Venezuela and Syria.

    Sanctions are used to “punish those they don’t like.”

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    Fighting Against Genuine Multipolar Order

    Washington and its allies are “doing everything they can to prevent the formation of a genuine multipolar world order.”

    “The US and its subordinated collective continue to fuel conflicts which artificially divide humanity into hostile blocks and hamper the achievement of overall aims.”

    “They are trying to force the world to play according to their own self-centred rules.” But the UN Charter seeks to ensure “sovereign equality of states large and small irrespective of their form of government.”

    Russian media has produced a full transcript of Lavrov’s speech here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 19:05

  • Now We Fear The Fed?
    Now We Fear The Fed?

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    If the Fed’s wish was to push risk assets lower, then they got their wish!

    This market faces a lot of problems, but I don’t think that the Fed is one of them.

    Yes, we got a Fed meeting this week.

    The statement at 2pm ET initially sounded quite hawkish. The SEP showed 50 bps more next year and the year after (“confirming” for many the higher for longer trade). However, I thought that the Powell presser was actually tilted towards the dovish side (he usually has to say hawkish things, but he barely accomplished that).

    I remain convinced that we are in a position where the Fed wants to do NOTHING.

    The 2-year yield closed Tuesday at 5.09% and ended at 5.11% – hardly alarming.

    The 10-year was a bit worse, moving 10 bps on the week. Bad, but was it worth 3.6% on the week for the Nasdaq 100 (and 5% since last Thursday)?

    Stocks seemed to fear the Fed more than the bond market did (at least by the end of the week). There is very little evidence of a “recession trade” as bond yields did inch higher and oil barely gave up any of its recent gains.

    As discussed last weekend in 99 Problems, the economy and markets face several headwinds, but I do not believe that the Fed is one of them. If anything, I’m the most bullish that I have been on risk and rates since earlier this year when we were looking for a short squeeze.

    Jinx

    I’ve heard that markets don’t like how Powell answered questions about the likelihood of achieving a “soft landing”. I grew up playing sports and learned two things:

    • You are not allowed to create your own nickname. Others have to do it for you (even Greenspan didn’t wake up one morning and start calling himself “the Maestro”).
    • The minute you say good things about your performance is the moment that your performance starts to deteriorate. Who hasn’t said, “I’ve finally fixed my drive” only to shank one on your very next tee shot. Or “I might never miss an extra point again”, right before having one blocked. Okay, maybe only a few people have experienced that “jinx”, but trust me, it’s real.

    So, what was Powell supposed to say?

    • What he wanted to say? Which was probably something along the lines of: “Listen, for two years I said that I thought we could get a soft landing and you ignored me and made the idea seem silly, but now, suddenly, you want me to say that it is not just likely but it is also the base case?”
    • What he had to say? “Yes, risks still exist and there are a lot of things that could prevent a soft landing. No, I cannot take a victory lap, nor can I say with certainly that we won’t have a recession.”

    He had to go with the latter. He would be torn to shreds by the media if we hit a recession in a few months after claiming victory.

    For those who say that he exhibited fear of a recession, it seems like they are taking his comments out of context and not considering that he cannot jinx himself or give his critics fodder if the recession hits. Recession remains a risk, which (paradoxically) is part of my bull thesis for now.

    AI

    We continue to focus on AI and discussed General (ret.) Groen’s take on the meetings in DC the prior week (he had an interesting seat at the table). We also discuss why we are searching for AI “success stories.” Not just stories about AI companies, but companies that have managed to harness/incorporate AI (or cutting-edge tech) into their products or processes to show outsized gains. Please see Thursday’s X Report – Intelligent Life in DC for more on these topics.

    Bottom Line

    I liked buying the post FOMC dip in stocks and rise in yields, and I am comfortable being almost max- long Treasuries, credit, and stocks here. I am also overweight risk and duration.

    One of the best parts of my job is speaking with clients. While Zoom meetings are great, the travel schedule has been busy and gets hectic for the next 6 weeks. I cannot wait to sit down and speak with our clients! From corporations, to municipal entities, to asset managers of all stripes, it will be a great opportunity to exchange ideas and learn!

    More people are asking if we can explain our “made by China” view in more detail as snippet after snippet of information comes out supporting that path for China (see TIC data & Merc). They want to discuss how they should be thinking about this for their businesses and investments.

    India. I’m increasingly concerned that in 3 to 5 years, many of us will wonder why we weren’t discussing India in 2023 as much as we should have been. We are doing everything we can to rectify that as India’s potential (and figuring out how to profit/benefit from this) is high on my agenda!

    Deion Sanders and Colorado are fun to watch! Please see last weekend’s piece and think about the “jinx” section from earlier in this report (and then don’t worry about Powell not sounding overly optimistic about a soft landing 􀑡􀑢􀑣􀑤).

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 18:30

  • Elon Musk's Starlink Exceeds 2 Million Users, Doubling In Just Nine Months
    Elon Musk’s Starlink Exceeds 2 Million Users, Doubling In Just Nine Months

    Democrats are probably even more furious with Elon Musk’s huge success with SpaceX-owned space internet company Starlink now boasting over 2 million active users worldwide. 

    “Starlink is available on all 7 continents, in over 60 countries and many more markets, connecting 2M+ active customers and counting with high-speed internet!” Starlink posted on X. 

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    Tesla blogger Sawyer Merritt posted a graph on X that shows Starlink’s onboarding of new customers has been parabolic since June 2022. 

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    Starlink has doubled the number of active users from 1 million to more than 2 million in only nine months. 

    This comes as SpaceX has been launching countless rockets with Starlink satellites to build its massive satellite contestation in low Earth orbit. 

    Weeks ago, Musk posted on X that SpaceX has launched 61 Falcon rockets this year. He said, “SpaceX has delivered ~80% of all Earth payload mass to orbit in 2023. China is ~10% & rest of world other ~10%.”

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    Data from the website Starlink Satellite Tracker shows that 5,039 satellites have been launched into low Earth orbit over the last several years. Of that, 4,207 are active, 591 have burned up, and 241 are inactive. 

    Meanwhile, Democrats, the current party that spends taxpayers’ funds like a drunken sailor on the unpopular Ukrainian war, have blasted Musk for allegedly turning off the space internet service on Ukraine’s military last year.

    A former Obama administration official recently declared: “The US government needs to end its relationship with Musk immediately.” 

    Good luck with that one. Then there are no Starlinks for Ukraine.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 17:55

  • "Spam Strike" Looms After Hormel Minnesota Workers Reject Contract Offer
    “Spam Strike” Looms After Hormel Minnesota Workers Reject Contract Offer

    By Nathan Owens of Agricultural Dive

    Summary:

    • Meatpacking workers at Hormel Foods’ plant in Austin, Minnesota, voted to reject a “final offer” contract last week in a push for stronger wages, setting the stage for a potential strike at the processor’s largest facility.

    • “It’s simply not good enough,” said the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 663 bargaining committee, which represents close to 95% of workers at Hormel’s hometown plant. “Hormel’s record profits are just wages not shared fairly with the rest of us.”

    • A Hormel spokesperson said that the parties have agreed on a contract extension through Oct. 8 as negotiations continue. The Austin plant is the largest of Hormel’s manufacturing locations, employing 1,800 people and producing more than 1 billion pounds of Spam, pepperoni and other food items each year.

    Meatpacking workers “overwhelmingly” voted down Hormel’s contract offer, according to UCFW, with the rejection coming as thousands around the U.S. mobilize to demand big businesses provide better working conditions and distribute record profits.

    Detroit auto workers for Ford, GM and Stellantis — known as the Big Three — are on day six of a walk-out strike, pressuring automakers for better benefits and pay as they see record high profits. The Writers Guild of America is expected to resume talks today with major Hollywood studios to improve worker compensation and protections around the use of artificial intelligence, Reuters reported. Nurses, teachers, truck drivers and other essential workers are also in the fight against stagnant wages amid inflation.

    “The reality is that we keep Hormel running,” the UFCW Local 633 committee said.

    “We demand that Hormel does better and comes to the table for a fair agreement quickly.”

    Voting took place Sept. 13 and 14 at the plant and UFCW union hall in Austin. Workers are pushing for higher wages in light of Hormel’s high earnings results, which soared as food companies adjusted their sales prices to compensate for absorbed costs.

    Hormel’s gross profits totaled $2.05 billion over the past 12 months, though the company is currently grappling with financial headwinds. The pork processor warned investors of lower than expected earnings this year as it navigated through a period of volatile commodity markets.

    “We are disappointed in the vote, especially given the significant contract package offered, however we remain optimistic that we will reach agreement,” the Hormel spokesperson said.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 17:20

  • Zelenskyy Asks Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic To Be Ambassador For Ukraine, Help 'Rebuild Schools'
    Zelenskyy Asks Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic To Be Ambassador For Ukraine, Help ‘Rebuild Schools’

    Authored by Chris Menahan via Information Liberation (emphasis ours),

    Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is recruiting spirit cooker Marina Abramovic to serve as an ambassador for Ukraine and help “rebuild schools.”

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    From The Telegraph, “Zelensky asks Marina Abramovic to be ambassador for Ukraine”:

    Volodymyr Zelensky has asked Marina Abramovic, the performance artist, to be an ambassador for Ukraine.

    ‌Ms Abramovic, a fierce critic of Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion, said the Ukrainian president had asked for her help in rebuilding schools.

    […] ‌”I have been invited by Zelensky to be an ambassador of Ukraine, to help the children affected by rebuilding schools and such.”

    ‌She added: “I have also been invited to be a board member of the Babyn Yar organisation to continue to protect the memorial.”

    ‌The Holocaust memorial centre to Jews murdered by Nazis in Ukraine was damaged by Russian missile attacks in March last year.

    The “bombing” of the Babyn Yar memorial was confirmed to be a lie last year.

    ‌Ms Abramovic installed her work Crystal Wall of Crying at the memorial centre in Kyiv four months before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

    ‌The wall, 40 metres long and three metres high, is made of coal and has large quartz crystals sticking out of it. Visitors can touch the installation, which mirrors the western wall in Jerusalem.

    Zelensky said last year his goal is to turn Ukraine into a “Greater Israel.”

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    In Dec 2022, Zelensky made a deal with BlackRock’s Larry Fink to help “rebuild” Ukraine after the war and just last week the Biden regime announced Penny Pritzker would become their Special Representative for “rebuilding” Ukraine.

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    Meanwhile, Abramovic’s pals, the Clintons, are also salivating over helping to ‘rebuild’ Ukraine.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 16:10

  • WaPo Scrambles After Own Poll Accidentally Shows Trump Crushing Biden
    WaPo Scrambles After Own Poll Accidentally Shows Trump Crushing Biden

    A new poll from the Washington Post and ABC News accidentally revealed that former President Trump would crush Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, so they cast doubt on their own polling.

    Illustration via the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

    The poll shows Trump leading Biden by 10 percentage points (52% vs. 42%), which the Post immediately noted “does not match other recent polling” and may be “an outlier.”

    Screenshot via MxM News

    Via the Washington Post:

    Biden and former president Donald Trump appear headed for a rematch of their 2020 contest, although more than 3 in 5 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they would prefer a nominee other than the president. But Biden’s advisers have argued that he is the strongest Democrat for 2024 and those who wish for someone else share no consensus on who that should be, with 8 percent naming Vice President Harris, 8 percent naming Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and 20 percent saying they prefer “just someone else.”

    The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.

    According to Trump adviser Jason Miller, “Heads are EXPLODING” over the WaPo poll.

    The NY Post further breaks down the poll, noting that 44% of those surveyed say their financial picture has deteriorated under Biden, while just 30% have favorable views on Biden’s handling of the economy.

    37% approve of Biden’s overall performance, while 56% disapprove.

    On immigration, Biden’s approval clocks in at 23%, with 45% strongly disapproving.

    Then, a considerable 74% of voters feel that he’s too old for another term, wile about 50% say the same about Trump. -NY Post

    It’s not just WaPo’s poll either…

    The Post also doesn’t want you to believe your lying eyes, claiming that “the Post-ABC poll is an outlier in finding Trump with a lead,” then proceeds to post a picture of Trump leading in 3 out of 5 polls with a fourth being a tie.

    Poll below:

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 15:35

  • Kerry Acknowledges Need For Nuclear Power As Climate Diplomacy Dominates New York City
    Kerry Acknowledges Need For Nuclear Power As Climate Diplomacy Dominates New York City

    Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

    While addressing an Atlantic Council meeting on nuclear energy, U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry made it clear he doesn’t think wind and solar alone will be sufficient to meet global energy needs while achieving policy plans to rapidly scale back the use of hydrocarbons in the name of addressing climate change risks as outlined by the United Nations.

    “You will have to have some component of nuclear—yet to be determined how big or where it’ll go. That’s going to be a market-based reaction,” said Mr. Kerry, who served as a Democratic senator from Massachusetts before serving as Secretary of State under former President Barack Obama.

    The 2004 Democratic candidate for president said that “most scientists will tell you” the goal of Net Zero 2050 cannot be achieved “unless we have a pot, a mixture of energy approaches.”

    “Clearly, we’re going to need nuclear to be a part of that,” he said on Monday.

    Mr. Kerry’s pro-nuclear remarks come as climate-related diplomacy and other climate-themed events overtake New York City.

    Over the weekend, protesters demonstrated against fossil fuels in the streets of New York City, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) among the participants.

    Mr. Kerry voiced support for those demonstrators in his speech to the Atlantic Council.

    In addition, the U.N. will hold its inaugural Climate Ambition Summit on Sept. 20.

    A U.N. statement on the event states it “will showcase leaders who are ‘first movers and doers’ from government, business, finance, local authorities, and civil society who have credible actions, policies and plans to keep the 1.5°C degree goal of the Paris Agreement alive and deliver climate justice to those on the front lines of the climate crisis.”

    The Climate Ambition Summit comes ahead of the next annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, which will begin in late November. It’s taking place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

    Even as he praised climate protesters, Mr. Kerry noted that a previous generation of environmental activists had fought hard against nuclear power, now seen as a pragmatic solution by many climate hawks.

    “In my state of Massachusetts, where there was a huge fight over Seabrook Nuclear Plant in New Hampshire, we now happily get about 20 percent of all our energy from Seabrook, and nobody’s complaining—maybe about the prices a little bit, because that’s normal in today’s world,” he said.

    A view of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Plant in Seabrook, N.H., on March 21, 2011. (Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty Images)

    “The United States is now therefore committed, based on experience and based on reality, to trying to accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy, as part of the Biden program,” he added.

    The diplomat, who came under fire from Republicans earlier this summer for his unwillingness to share details of his staff at a Congressional hearing, commented positively on Bill Gates’ TerraPower, which plans to build the next-generation Natrium nuclear reactor in Wyoming.

    He also drew attention to his recent trip to Romania, where he visited a control room simulator for a small modular reactor developed by the American firm NuScale.

    Mr. Kerry took issue with the continued construction of unabated coal-fired power plants and with the existence of subsidies for fossil fuels.

    An International Monetary Fund (IMF) study identified $1.3 trillion in “explicit” subsidies for fossil fuels in 2022, a stark increase from $500 billion in 2020. Such subsidies are ascribed to fossil fuel prices when they are lower than they would otherwise be if producers fully bore supply costs. The IMF authors attributed a substantial proportion of the increase to “temporary price support measures,” in line with surging fossil fuel prices during that period.

    Whitehouse Touts ADVANCE Act

    Mr. Kerry wasn’t the only high-level Democratic politician who addressed the Atlanticist forum on Monday.

    In pre-recorded remarks, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) touted the bipartisan, nuclear power-related ADVANCE Act, which passed the Senate as part of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in July. The bill has not moved ahead in the House.

    “Our legislation would strengthen the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s ability to safely and efficiently review the expected influx of applications and prepare them to license HALEU [high-assay low-enriched uranium] fuels,” the lawmaker said.

    Russia currently dominates the production of HALEU fuels, which are key for most next-generation nuclear reactors. Uncertainty about Russian supplies of HALEU has been a worry for TerraPower and a central motivation for the Nuclear Fuel Security Act, another successful NDAA amendment.

    “We spend nearly $1 billion each year on Russian uranium. Russia uses these revenues to fund its invasion of Ukraine,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said in the Senate as the measure was under consideration.

    Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) in Washington on Dec. 1, 2020. (Bill O’Leary-Pool/Getty Images)

    ‘Decarbonize Beyond Electricity’

    Other speakers at the event expanded on how nuclear energy could be used to cut carbon emissions.

    “We need to decarbonize beyond electricity,” said John Wagner, director of the Idaho National Laboratory. He cited industrial heating and hydrogen production as examples of such applications for nuclear energy.

    Sama Bilbao y León, director general of the World Nuclear Association, concurred.

    “Yes, we need to electrify as much as we can of our economy, but it is not going to be possible to electrify everything,” she said.

    Ben Pickett of Nucor Corporation, which operates mills that recycle scrap steel using electric arc furnaces, explained that his company’s operations require “billions and billions of kilowatt hours per year.”

    Earlier this year, Nucor signed a memorandum of understanding with NuScale Power. The latter could potentially develop small modular reactors for use in conjunction with Nucor’s steel production facilities.

    “We’ve got customers now that are demanding much cleaner steels,” Mr. Pickett said.

    He conceded that the idea of running steel production on advanced nuclear has met with a “mixed” reaction in his industry.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 15:00

  • Zelenskyy, Trudeau Honor Actual 3rd Reich Nazi With Standing Ovation
    Zelenskyy, Trudeau Honor Actual 3rd Reich Nazi With Standing Ovation

    Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy – who commands a battalion of neo-Nazis – honored an actual WWII Nazi with a standing ovation on Friday.

    Yaroslav Hunka, 98, fought in a Third Reich military formation accused of war crimes.

    On Friday, he was honored during a session of Canadian parliament in which Zelenskyy addressed the lawmakers to thank them for their support since Russia invaded Ukraine, saying that Canada has always been on “the bright side of history.”

    Hunka stood for standing ovation and saluted, according to Canadian television.

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    According to the Associated Press, Hunka “fought with the First Ukrainian Division in World War II before later immigrating to Canada,” another name for the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, the Nazi party’s military wing, also known as the SS Galichina.

    Related:

    Formed in 1943, SS Galichina was comprised of Ukrainians from the Galicia region in the western part of the country. It was armed and trained by Hitler’s Nazis and commanded by German officers. The next year, the division received a visit from SS head Heinrich Himmler, who had high praise for the unit’s effectiveness at slaughtering Poles.

    The SS Galichina subunits were responsible for the Huta Pieniacka massacre, in which they burned 500 to 1,000 Polish villagers alive.

    One of several photos on a blog by an SS Galichina veterans’ group that shows Yaroslav Hunka, the Ukrainian immigrant honored by the Canadian Parliament during a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Hunka is in the front row, middle.

    In fact, during the Nuremberg Trials, the Waffen-SS was declared to be a criminal organization responsible for mass atrocities.

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    Following the war, thousands of SS Galichina veterans were allowed to leave Germany and resettle in the West – with around 2,000 moving to Canada. By that time, they were known as the First Ukrainian Division.

    A blog by an association of its veterans, called “Combatant News” in Ukrainian, includes an autobiographical entry by a Yaroslav Hunka that says he volunteered to join the division in 1943 and several photographs of him during the war. The captions say the pictures show Hunka during SS artillery training in Munich in December 1943 and in Neuhammer (now Świętoszów), Poland, the site of Himmler’s visit. 

    In posts to the blog dated 2011 and 2010, Hunka describes 1941 to 1943 as the happiest years of his life and compares the veterans of his unit, who were scattered across the world, to Jews. –Forward

    So, the same leftists who called Trump supporters Nazis for years are now honoring an actual Nazi – while Germany has notably locked up several concentration camp guards in their 90s for their involvement in Nazi activities.

    University of Ottawa Political Scientist Ivan Katchanovski lays it out…

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    Meanwhile, here’s Ukraine’s Azov Battalion of neo-Nazis that everyone with a Ukraine flag in their bio is supporting…

    Odd, they don’t look like Trump supporters.

    Maybe these Nazis can shed some light? Careful, “X” thinks this is sensitive material (that might redpill people?).

    Meanwhile…

    Extra meanwhile…

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 14:25

  • Bitcoin Mining Can Reduce Up To 8% Of Global Emissions: Report
    Bitcoin Mining Can Reduce Up To 8% Of Global Emissions: Report

    Authored by Ezra Reguerra via CoinTelegraph.com,

    A paper published by the Institute of Risk Management (IRM) concluded that Bitcoin has the potential to be a catalyst for a global energy transition. 

    IRM Energy and Renewables Group members Dylan Campbell and Alexander Larsen published a report titled “Bitcoin and the Energy Transition: From Risk to Opportunity.”

    The paper argued that while BTC was perceived as a risk because of its energy consumption, it can also catalyze energy transition and lead to new solutions for energy challenges worldwide.

    Within the report, the authors also highlighted the important function of energy and the increasing need for reliable, clean and more affordable energy sources.

    Despite the criticisms of Bitcoin’s energy intensity, the study provided a more balanced view of Bitcoin by showing the potential benefits BTC can bring to the energy industry.

    Amount of vented methane that can be used in Bitcoin mining. Source: IRM

    According to the report, Bitcoin mining can reduce global emissions by up to 8% by 2030. This can be done by converting the world’s wasted methane emissions into less harmful emissions. The report cited a theoretical case saying that using captured methane to power Bitcoin mining operations can reduce the amount of methane vented into the atmosphere. 

    The paper also presented other opportunities for Bitcoin to contribute to the energy sector.

    “We have shown that while Bitcoin is a consumer of electricity, this does not translate to it being a high emitter of carbon dioxide and other atmospheric pollutants. Bitcoin can be the catalyst to a cleaner, more energy-abundant future for all,” the authors wrote.

    According to the report, Bitcoin can contribute to energy efficiency through electricity grid management by using Bitcoin miners and transferring heat from miners to greenhouses.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 13:50

  • Von Der Leyen Speech Suggests Russia Dropped Nuke On Hiroshima 
    Von Der Leyen Speech Suggests Russia Dropped Nuke On Hiroshima 

    Von der Leyen just said what?…

    This past Wednesday, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen delivered a speech before the 2023 Atlantic Council Awards in New York, where she sounded the alarm over the specter of nuclear war centered on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But while invoking remembrance of the some 78,000 civilians killed instantly by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima at the end of WWII, she said her warning comes “especially at a time when Russia threatens to use nuclear weapons once again“. She  actually framed the atomic atrocity in a way that made it sound like the Russians did it. Watch:

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    There was not one single acknowledgement in Von der Leyen’s speech that it was in fact the United States which incinerated and maimed hundreds of thousands when it dropped no less that two atomic bombs on Japanese cities.

    Here were her precise words, according to an Atlantic Council transcript…

    You, dear Prime Minister, showed me the meaning of this proverb during the G7 summit in Japan last year. You brought us to your hometown of Hiroshima, the place where you have your roots and which has deeply shaped your life and leadership. Many of your relatives lost their life when the atomic bomb razed Hiroshima to the ground. You have grown up with the stories of the survivors. And you wanted us to listen to the same stories, to face the past, and learn something about the future.

    It was a sobering start to the G7, and one that I will not forget, especially at a time when Russia threatens to use nuclear weapons once again. It is heinous. It is dangerous. And in the shadow of Hiroshima, it is unforgivable. 

    The above video of that segment of the speech gives a better idea of the subtle way she closely associated in her rhetoric the words “once again” with the phrase “shadow of Hiroshima” while focusing on what Russia is doing, to make it sound like it was Moscow behind the past atrocities.

    Via dpa

    Russian media not only picked up on the woefully misleading comments, but the Kremlin issued a formal rebuke of Von der Leyen’s speech as well:

    In response to von der Leynen’s remarks, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused the European Commission president of making “no mention whatsoever of the US and its executioners who dropped the bombs on populated Japanese cities.”

    Zakharova responded on social media, arguing that von der Leyen’s assertions on Moscow’s supposed intentions to employ nuclear weapons “is despicable and dangerous” and “lies.”

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    Some Russian embassies in various parts of the globe also highlighted the speech on social media, denouncing the “empire of lies” and those Western leaders issuing ‘shameful’ propaganda and historical revisionism.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/24/2023 – 13:15

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