Today’s News 24th September 2018

  • In Stunning Theft, $104 Million In Banknotes Disappears From Liberian Central Bank

    Liberia is still struggling with the aftermath of the 2014 Ebola outbreak and the stubbornly low prices of coffee and other commodities that its exporters rely on to bring in badly needed foreign capital. But to the country’s lengthy list of problems, we can now add one more.

    CB

    As the New York Times and Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week, authorities in Liberia are investigating the disappearance of $104 million in newly printed bank notes intended for the central bank – a suspected fraud equivalent to 5% of the country’s GDP.

    The theft reportedly occurred some time between late 2017 and early 2018, as former President (and Nobel laureate) Ellen Sirleaf was handing over power to her successor, soccer star George Weah.

    Liberia

    Here’s WSJ:

    Liberian officials said the bank notes—more than 16 billion Liberian dollars—were ordered by the central bank from overseas printers but disappeared between November and August. The money, packaged in canvas bags and 20-foot-high sealed containers, was cleared through Liberian customs between November and August but never made it to the central bank’s headquarters in the capital, Monrovia, the officials said.

    The government said the matter was being taken extremely seriously because it had national-security implications.

    The disappearance is a blow for Liberia’s crisis-addled economy as it recovers from the commodity-price crash and devastating Ebola epidemic that has claimed more citizen’s lives than in any other nation.

    While Weah has blamed his predecessor for the disappearance, arguing that the banknotes were ordered when she was still in office, local investigative reporters discovered that the notes were cleared by Liberian customs workers back in March, after the Weah administration had taken over, according to Quartz.

    The notes…were ordered by Sirleaf’s administration in 2016. Lenn Eugene Nagbe, the government’s spokesman and Cllr. Frank Musah Dean, attorney general, told reporters the containers had arrived in November, while the Sirleaf administration was still in office. But leaked shipping documents from the port show the containers were cleared in February and March of this year, after the new administration had taken over.

    Sirleaf has criticized Weah for casting aspersions on her rule (tainted as it was by brazen nepotism)…

    Ms. Sirleaf quickly hit back, calling it unfortunate that the government of Liberia “would give false information that wickedly impugns the reputation of past officials and by extension the country itself,” according to Front Page Africa.

    She said the Central Bank of Liberia had conducted an internal investigation that the current government has refused to release.

    …But a breakthrough in the state’s investigation revealed that both administrations may have been complicit. Investigators released a list of 15 “persons of interest” who have been ordered not to leave the country.

    Weah

    George Weah

    One of them is Charles Sirleaf, the former president’s son who served as deputy governor of the central bank during the present and previous administrations.

    The plot thickened this week when the Ministry of Information issued a list of 15 “persons of interest” who have been barred from travel.

    Among them was Milton Weeks, a former Central Bank governor who worked in Ms. Sirleaf’s government and resigned in July. Also on the list was Charles Sirleaf, Ms. Sirleaf’s son, who is deputy governor of the Central Bank in the Weah administration. He held the same post during his mother’s tenure.

    However, whether anything will ultimately be done to hold corrupt politicians to account remains uncertain. As one economist told the New York Times, the country’s “deeply embedded culture of patronage” has left it with “makeshift” administrations.

    “You can have Jesus Christ heading all of these ministries, but if the president of Liberia is not serious, nothing happens,” economist John Morlu said.

    At the end of the day, the people of Liberia will bear the brunt of this theft as already unmanageable inflation in the price of staples like rice grows immeasurably worse.

  • Don't Share This! EU's New Copyright Law Could Kill The Free Internet

    Authored by Neil Clark, op-ed via RT.com,

    It’s basically a battle between billionaires Axel Springer SE and Google. But it is ordinary internet users who will fall victim to the EU’s new copyright law, which urgently needs modification.

    It’s good to share. But the European Parliament clearly doesn’t think so. Its new copyright legislation, passed last week, clamps down quite severely on sharing things online. The dynamism of the internet is at threat. When Tim Berners-Lee, the creator of the World Wide Web, warns us of the dangers the new law poses, we should all sit up straight and pay attention.

    For a start, the legislation shifts the responsibility for the uploading of copyright material to the internet platforms themselves. Beforehand it was the job of the companies who thought their copyright was infringed to do this. Many don’t bother, and are happy to see their material uploaded to sites like YouTube as they know it promotes an artist’s work and boosts sales. But all that is likely to change.

    Under Article 13, platforms would have to install “upload filters”.YouTube could be shorn of much of its content. Big sites would probably survive but, as ZDNet warns here, smaller sites could easily be put out of business by “copyright trolls”.

    Not that there’s anything wrong of course, with sensible protection of copyright. As a prolific five-articles-a-week writer and author I can’t tell you how frustrated and angry I feel when I see my work “pirated”by a commercial website which hasn’t even asked my permission to reprint it, let alone offer me  payment. Copyright law needs reform for the digital age. There needs to be an easy way for creators of content to receive payment from those who have stolen their work. The trouble is, the EU has used a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

    Look at the way the ability to link to, and quote from, other work without payment, is threatened by the directive.

    Sites like RT’s ‘Op-ed’ section, which you are reading now, would be adversely affected and may be even put out of action. One of the advantages of writing an article for an online site over print is that links to articles mentioned can easily be inserted. This enables the reader to see for him/herself the original source. But Article 11 of the Directive raises fears that payment may, in certain circumstances, have to be paid to sites which are linked to. Being able to quote freely from other articles, so long as they are credited, is surely a good thing. It’s essential for instance when you are writing a piece dissecting another. But under the new legislation all but the very briefest quotes may have to be paid for. Think how much that would restrict quality journalism and hinder the free exchange of knowledge.

    Then there’s the threat to memes, one of the most entertaining aspects of online life. It’s true that memes are often based on material which technically is copyrighted. But isn’t legislating against them taking it all too far? Article 13 states that “online content sharing service providers and right holders shall cooperate in good faith in order to ensure that unauthorised protected works or other subject matter are not available on their services.” That could mean you tweeting a GIF of Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho showing great disinterest in a topic could fall ‘foul’ of the law.

    via GIPHY

    So to get over this, you might think of going to a football match yourself, taking a photo of the player, manager, team, or the stadium, and then tweeting that. Be careful, you could be “red-carded” under Article 12a, as Wired in their ‘Explainer’ piece points out here (do we have to pay them for the link, Ed?).

    The overall impact of the legislation, if it becomes law in member states, will be stultifying. We’ll all be turned into nervous wrecks, worried that we have infringed the new laws in one way or another. Don’t we have enough stress already in our lives without the European Parliament adding to it?  What’s made the Internet so fandabidozi (will we have to pay The Krankies copyright to use that term?!), is that it has, up to now, been free to grow organically. Blogs that attract readers thrive, those that don’t go to the wall. But the very fact that it’s been a relatively free space, alarms the control freaks and brain-washers.

    The EU legislation, bad as it is in its own right, must be seen as part of a wider attempt to clamp down on free expression and the free exchange of ideas in the West at a time when fewer people than ever before believe establishment narratives. This month a British MP by the name of Lucy Powell, launched a bill in Parliament entitled the ‘Online Forums Bill’ to ban private Facebook groups which promote “hate”“racism” and “fake news”. But who defines what these terms actually mean?

    The authorities, that’s who, and they will use their powers selectively and hypocritically to silence anyone who poses a threat to those living very comfortable lives inside the castle. Just look at how the ‘fake news’ debate has been framed in such a way to equate ‘fake news’ with ‘Russian news’, ignoring the promulgation of ‘fake news’ by non-Russian media about Iraqi WMDs which led to a war which killed over 1m people.

    Powell’s bill comes on top of the enormous pressure that companies like Facebook have been placed under to toe the line and flag up content from non-approved providers. We were told that in July, Twitter had purged of about 70 million accounts. Censorship is coming back under the guise of “fighting extremism”,“countering fake news”, or “countering the scourge of anti-Semitism.” If they want to censor it they’ll find a noble sounding, virtue-signaling excuse. We need to resist this, and resist it strongly.

    In free societies it should be up to internet users themselves to decide what articles and outlets they read, what Facebook groups they join (closed or otherwise), and what Twitter accounts they follow, and not Big Brother or any other kind of politically correct thought police. And the EU should be concerning itself not with trying to control the internet, through manufactured ‘concerns’ over copyright, but in solving the pressing problems affecting Europe’s economies. Youth unemployment stood at around 43 percent in Greece, 33 percent in Spain and 32 percent in Italy, the last time I looked.  What help will the Copyright Directive be to the young jobless?

  • Digital Dictatorship: China Exerts Control Over Population Through "Social Credit" System

    China is developing a digital dictatorship to exert control over its 1.4 billion citizens. For some, “social credit” will bring great opportunities — for others, punishment. The Communist Party’s plan is to monitor its citizens 24/7 and rank them on their behavior, as the dystopian social ranking system will be fully operational by 2020.

    According to Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), an active pilot program has already assigned a score out of 800 to millions of people across the country. More than 200 million surveillance cameras are currently using artificial intelligence and facial recognition software that adds or subtracts social points based on physical and digital behavior.

    The data collected from the vast network of cameras is blended with information collected from individuals’ government records, medical, financial, and even internet browsing histories. People’s scores can oscillate from good to bad in “real time” dependant on the person’s behavior, but also the people they associate with can affect scores as well.

    “If your best friend or your dad says something negative about the government, you’ll lose points too,” the ABC reports.

    In 2014, the Chinese government published a notice concerning all provincial, autonomous region, and cities concerning the construction of the social credit system. The scheme has been seen as a bid to reinforce the notion that “keeping trust is glorious and breaking trust is disgraceful,” according to the State Council Notice concerning Issuance of the Planning Outline for the Construction of a Social Credit System (2014-2020) government document.

    “A social credit system is an important component part of the Socialist market economy system and the social governance system. It is founded on laws, regulations, standards and charters, it is based on a complete network covering the credit records of members of society and credit infrastructure, it is supported by the lawful application of credit information and a credit services system, its inherent requirements are establishing the idea of an sincerity culture, and carrying forward sincerity and traditional virtues, it uses encouragement to keep trust and constraints against breaking trust as incentive mechanisms, and its objective is raising the honest mentality and credit levels of the entire society,” said the government document.

    ABC said the credit systems are now in at least a dozen cities across China. Several companies are working with the government to set up the vast infrastructure, configure the technology, and finalize the algorithms that determine the score. This is the largest social engineering project ever attempted in modern history, and a way for Chinese elites to control more than a billion people.

    If the scheme is successful, it will be the world’s first digital dictatorship.

    Under the system, good Chinese are rewarded bonus points. The benefits of having a good score include waived deposits on hotels and rental cars, VIP treatment at airports, discounted loans, access to high-speed transportation, priority job applications and fast-tracking to elite universities.

    Dandan, 36, knows social credit is not a perfect system but believes it is a good way for the government to manage the world’s largest population effectively. “China likes to experiment in this creative way … I think people in every country want a stable and safe society,” she said. “We need a social credit system. We hope we can help each other, love each other and help everyone to become prosperous.”

    Under one of the pilot tests called Sesame Credit, Dandan has a high score of 770 out of 800; she is considered a good citizen.

    Thanks to her rating, Dandan has special privileges like renting a car, a hotel room or a house without a deposit.

    But on the opposite side of the spectrum, the social credit scheme is hell. There are an estimated 10 million people with bad social credit.

    Speaking out about the government, jaywalking, late payments on bills or taxes, and even buying too much alcohol, will cost citizens points. Punishments for being a lousy citizen range from losing the right to travel by plane or train, social media account suspension and being barred from government jobs.

    Chinese journalist Liu Hu, 43, is one of the millions who ended up with a low social credit score. Hu was arrested, jailed and fined after he spoke up against government corruption.

    “There are a lot of people who are on the blacklist wrongly, but they can’t get off it,” said Hu.

    ABC said the credit system has destroyed his career and isolated him, as he now worries for his family’s future. The system has halted all travel options for him and kept him under house arrest in his hometown of Chongqing. Hu’s social media accounts, where he posted his investigative journalism, have also been deleted by the government. Hu claims his combined Wechat and Weibo accounts had two million followers at the peak.

    “This kind of social control is against the tide of the world. The Chinese people’s eyes are blinded and their ears are blocked. They know little about the world and are living in an illusion.” Liu Hu said.

    It would not surprise us if, in the near future, Beijing deducts points from citizens who use American products (Apple iPhone) as the trade war between the US and China deepens.

  • Hong Kong Money Markets Explode 'Most Since Lehman' As Carry Trade Unwinds

    After more than five months of trading at or near the lower band of its currency peg (prompting repeated interventions by the city’s de facto central bank), the Hong Kong Dollar exploded stronger last week, imploding short-HKD carry traders and the carnage is for all to see tonight as HK liquidity markets are in crisis.

    As Bloomberg reports, a shock jump in Hong Kong’s currency is signaling a decade-long liquidity party is coming to an end. That may be bad news for the city’s housing market.

    The chance of local banks raising the so-called prime rate for the first time since 2006 is “extremely high,” Financial Secretary Paul Chan said.

    Interbank rates from overnight to 3-months, have exploded higher as banks scramble for liquidity… overnight rates are now four times as high as they were last week…

    (We note that liquidity also tends to tighten as banks hoard cash ahead of holidays this week and in early October.)

    The Hong Kong dollar’s one-month interbank borrowing costs jumped the most since 2008, as the Lehman crisis escalated.

    “The market has underestimated the pace of interest rate increases in Hong Kong,” said Kevin Lai, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd.

    This “will bring pressure to the property market and leveraged home buyers.”

    “We expect banks to hike prime rate twice this year by a total of 50 basis points, as Hibor rises with a shrinking liquidity pool and Fed hikes,” said Frank Lee, acting chief investment officer for North Asia at DBS Bank (HK) Ltd.

    “It will hurt property market sentiment.”

    And the narrowing spread with U.S. Libor (green) is making a previously profitable trade of selling Hong Kong dollars to buy higher yielding U.S. assets less appealing.

    “The short-Hong Kong dollar carry trade has come to an end,” said Ken Peng, an investment strategist at Citi Private Bank in Hong Kong. “Friday’s move suggests borrowing costs in Hong Kong have tightened a lot and will tighten further.”

  • US History Of Chemical Weapons Use & Complicity In War Crimes

    Authored by Brian Kalman exclusively for SouthFront; Brian Kalman is a management professional in the marine transportation industry. He was an officer in the US Navy for eleven years.

    The world is once again witnessing the height of U.S. hypocrisy as members of the U.S. State Department ratchet up anti-Russian and anti-Syrian rhetoric surrounding the use of chemical weapons in Syria and the UK. Ambassador Nikki Haley has warned Syria, Iran and Russia that they will be held accountable for their pre-determined use of chemical weapons in Idlib on innocent civilians. No evidence was provided to support her threats. The United States carried out cruise missile strikes on two previous occasions, and each time provided no evidence to prove their assertion that the Syrian government used chemical weapons in attacking civilians, nor was any rational reason given for such an obviously irrational decision on the part of the Syrian state. No evidence has ever been provided to justify the clear international crime of aggression committed by the United States on these two earlier occasions. Now, the UK and the U.S. are both attempting to accuse the Russian government of using chemical weapons in an alleged attempted assassination of a Russian national on UK soil. Once again, no real evidence has been presented, only assertions and hearsay.

    On Thursday September 13th, Assistant Secretary of State Manisha Singh declared before the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee that the United States would level the most severe of sanctions against Russia, including breaking all diplomatic ties, if Russia refused to admit its guilt in perpetrating the Skripal assassination fiasco and refused to submit to International inspections by the OPCW of its alleged chemical weapons and biological weapons programs. She stated that Russia would have to meet this requirement by an arbitrary November 4th deadline, set by the United States in accordance with a U.S. law, not an international law. H.R. 1724 – Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 specifies in part:

    Title III: Control and Elimination of Chemical and Biological Weapons – Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 – Declares it is U.S. policy to: (1) seek multilaterally coordinated efforts with other countries to control the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons; and (2) strengthen efforts to control chemical agents, precursors, and equipment.

    Requires the President to use the U.S. export control laws to control the export of defense articles, defense services, goods, and technologies that he determines would assist a country in acquiring the capability to produce or use such weapons.

    Amends the Export Administration Act of 1979 to require the Secretary of Commerce to establish a list of goods and technology that would assist a foreign government or group in acquiring chemical or biological weapons. Requires a validated export license for the export of such items to certain countries of concern.

    Requires the President to impose certain sanctions against foreign persons if he determines that they knowingly contributed to the efforts of a country to acquire, use, or stockpile chemical or biological weapons. Declares such sanctions to include: (1) denial of U.S. procurement contracts for goods or services from such foreign persons; and (2) prohibition against importation of products from such persons. Authorizes the President to waive imposition of such sanctions if he determines that is in the national security interests of the United States.

    Amends the Arms Export Control Act to set forth similar provisions.

    Requires the President to make a determination with respect to whether a country has used chemical or biological weapons in violation of international law or has used lethal chemical or biological weapons against its own nationals. Authorizes specified congressional committees to request the President to make such determination with respect to the use of such weapons.

    Requires the President to impose the following sanctions against foreign countries that have been found to have used such weapons: (1) termination of assistance under the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (except humanitarian assistance and agricultural commodities); (2) termination of arms sales and arms sales financing; (3) denial of U.S. credit; and (4) prohibition of the export of certain goods and technology. Directs the President to impose at least three of the following additional sanctions unless such countries cease the use of such weapons and provide assurances that they will not use, and will allow inspections with respect to, such weapons: (1) opposition to the extension of multilateral development bank assistance; (2) prohibition of U.S. bank loans (except loans for food or agricultural commodities); (3) further export prohibitions; (4) import restrictions; (5) suspension of diplomatic relations; and (6) termination of air carrier landing rights. Provides for the removal and waiver of such sanctions.

    Requires the President to submit to the Congress annual reports on the efforts of countries to acquire chemical or biological weapons.

    Repeals certain duplicative provisions of the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1992 and 1993.

    It is important to note that nowhere in this law is there a legal commitment made by the United States itself, to eliminate its own chemical and biological weapons capabilities. This is not an oversight, yet speaks to the imperial hypocrisy of the United States and an acknowledgement that it alone has been the largest perpetrator of chemical weapons use and proliferation for more than 50 years. It currently maintains the largest stockpile of both chemical and biological warfare agents of any nation on the planet, and continues to expand its biological weapons research and development on a scale far larger than any other country.

    While the U.S. Department of Defense maintains that its massive biological research programs are meant to counter and defend against new biological weapons being developed, they are in fact developing bio-weapons in the process.

    International Obligations and the OPCW

    Russia is one of 192 signatories (state and non-state parties) of the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention, along with the United States. On September 27th, 2017 it was announced by Russia and the OPCW, that Russia had verified the total destruction of its large chemical weapons stockpile dating from the years of the Soviet Union, estimated at 39,967 metric tons of chemical agents. Russia was obligated to do this by 2020, yet was able to accomplish the task three years ahead of schedule. Under the original agreement, both the U.S. and Russia were obligated to accomplish this by 2007, but both nations required an extension of the deadline.

    Although admitting to a total stockpile of 28,000 metric tons of chemical agents, the U.S. admits to destroying 90% of its chemical arsenal. The U.S. requested and was granted an extension out to 2023 to achieve verified elimination of 100% of its chemical weapons. The only other signatory of the law other than the United States not to have already met the requirements is Iraq. It must be stated that much of the chemical weapons in the Iraqi arsenal are based on the chemical warfare agents supplied to the Saddam Hussein regime during the height of the Iran-Iraq war by the United States and other western nations. Saddam used some of these U.S. supplied weapons to murder thousands of Iraqi Kurds in the town of Halabja in 1988. Estimates range between 3,000 – 7,000 deaths and over 10,000 injured.

    Saddam Hussein was a valued asset of the United States and its Western allies for decades. Hussein pictured above with former French President Jacque Chirac and U.S Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

    Not only did the United States, and France for that matter, provide chemical weapons to the Saddam regime, but the U.S. intelligence agencies provided the Iraqi military with vital battlefield intelligence, including satellite imagery in aiding them in the war. The U.S. was well aware that the Saddam regime had used chemical weapons in at least four offensives during the war. Of course they knew, they had facilitated the transfer of these weapons to help the Iraqis prosecute a war of aggression against Iran. Declassified CIA documents clearly show that the United States was well aware that the Iraqis had used chemical weapons at least four times between 1983 and 1988. Iran had accused Iraq of using chemical weapons, and tried to build a case to bring before the United Nations. The United States withheld its knowledge of course, and continued to aid its ally in perpetrating these crimes against humanity.

    Perhaps the most powerful photo taken of the Halabja chemical attack perpetrated against Iraqi Kurds. This woman died running with her child in an attempt to save her, yet could not escape the deadly effects of the chemical agents used. Their embrace will forever symbolize both human love and sacrifice, and unfathomable human cruelty.

    U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley has lied through her teeth repeatedly in her statements before the U.N. Security Council and the General Assembly. She has stated repeatedly that Assad has used chemical weapons against his own people in Ghouta in 2013, Khan Shaykhun in 2017 and Douma in 2018, yet has not supplied one shred of evidence beyond dubious social media posts of unknown provenance. She has also stated that the United States is certain that it could only be the Syrian government, as no other party in the conflict zone could possibly possess chemical weapons. Here’s the problem with her statement. Firstly, the United States and the OPCW verified that Syria destroyed or surrendered all of its chemical weapons agents. On its official website, the OPCW states:

    “Veolia, the US firm contracted by the OPCW to dispose of part of the Syrian chemical weapons stockpile, has completed disposal of 75 cylinders of hydrogen fluoride at its facility in Texas.

    This completes destruction of all chemical weapons declared by the Syrian Arab Republic.  The need to devise a technical solution for treating a number of cylinders in a deteriorated and hazardous condition had delayed the disposal process.

    Commenting on this development, the Director-General of the OPCW, Ambassador Ahmet Üzümcü, said: “This process closes an important chapter in the elimination of Syria’s chemical weapon programme as we continue efforts to clarify Syria’s declaration and address ongoing use of toxic chemicals as weapons in that country.”

    Secondly, the OPCW and the UN have both verified that opposition forces within Syria have used chemical agents as weapons on numerous occasions during the conflict. Not only has Carla Del Ponte, UN human rights investigator, former UN Chief Prosecutor and ICC attorney stated that opposition forces had used chemical weapons, but also the former OPCW head field investigator in Syria Jerry Smith stated to the BBC that he found it very unlikely that the government perpetrated these chemical attacks.. As recently as October of last year the U.S. State Department itself seemed to acknowledge the same truth in its warning to U.S. citizens traveling to Syria. The travel warning stated:

    “Tactics of ISIS, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and other violent extremist groups include the use of suicide bombers, kidnapping, small and heavy arms, improvised explosive devices, and chemical weapons.

    They have targeted major city centers, road checkpoints, border crossings, government buildings, shopping areas, and open spaces, in Damascus, Aleppo, Hamah, Dara, Homs, Idlib, and Dayr al-Zawr provinces.”

    U.S. History of using Chemical Weapons and Supporting Those that Do

    The last country in the world that should lecture anyone on the possession and use of WMDs is the United States. Not only is the United States the only country in history to ever target civilians with multiple atomic bombs, it has used chemical weapons against the populations of Southeast Asia and Iraq in the past. Now, they were smart enough not to use mustard gas and anthrax, but the accumulative effects of Agent Orange and depleted uranium in these populations has been devastating, and will not only cause great harm and pain for these populations, but will leave the land poisoned for generations.

    The United States sprayed copious quantities of TCDD (dioxin tetrachlordibenzo-para-dioxin), a class 1 carcinogen all over regions of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos in an attempt to defoliate the jungle environment, and thus rob their enemy of an environment they excelled at fighting in and hiding in as part of Operation Ranch Hand. Known as Agent Orange, the chemical was banned in the U.S. in 1970. Although extremely hard to quantify, the devastating effects of dioxin exposure in the Vietnamese population are easily identifiable, as the same effects were observed in U.S. veterans that returned home after exposure to the toxin. Abnormally high levels of various cancers and debilitating birth defects are present in Southeast Asian populations in areas of greatest use of Agent Orange. Dioxins remain in the soil and water table, as they do not degrade naturally. Dioxin also bio-accumulates in the fatty tissues of animals and thus remains in the food supply.

    One of the many young Vietnamese born long after the war with debilitating, neurodevelopmental diseases and birth defects due to Agent Orange exposure of their parents.

    The United States learned little from the crime it perpetrated in Southeast Asia, nor did it seem to care as it repeated a similar offense in two successive invasions of Iraq. Having failed to achieve its aim of defeating Iran through its brutal Iraqi proxy, even after helping the Saddam Hussein regime in chemical warfare attacks against Iranian soldiers and Iraqi Kurdish civilians, the United States largely ignored the numerous atrocities carried out by one of its favorite dictators. The U.S. would turn on its erstwhile henchman in 1990, after Saddam decided to attack one of its favorite corrupt emirates in the region. The resulting 1991 invasion of Iraq saw the heavy use of depleted uranium armored piercing rounds. Depleted uranium is extremely dense, and thus good for piercing hardened steel or composite armor. The follow-on invasion of 2003 brought more death and destruction, and more depleted uranium.

    Locations of depleted uranium munitions used by U.S. Airforce A-10 ground attack aircraft in Iraq during the 2003 invasion. Depleted Uranium is also used in anti-armor munitions utilized by all U.S. tanks and armored fighting vehicles as well, so the true breadth of distribution and employment of depleted uranium in the above map are understated.

    The U.S. has not funded the reclamation and disposal of depleted uranium contaminated scrap in Iraq. The new Iraqi government has started cleaning up the approximately 350 sites identified as having depleted uranium contamination in the country, mostly around Basra and Baghdad, yet also scattered over the entire country. It is estimated that between 1,000 and 2,000 metric tons of depleted uranium used in various munitions fired during the invasion of 2003 alone. It is hard to narrow down the exact amount as the U.S. military has failed to provide any definitive numbers. Iraqi doctors have recorded and reported higher cases of cancers in adult patients and increased birth defects in children being born in Iraq since the invasion took place. The U.S. government seems determined to undermine any attempts to draw direct correlations between this recorded phenomenon and its use of depleted uranium in two successive wars in Iraq. It has also fought all attempts by U.S. war veterans suffering from various cancers and neurological diseases from their similar exposure in both wars.

    Continued Support of War Criminals

    Nikki Haley fails to acknowledge the historic role of the United States government’s support of some of the world’s most horrible regimes in the past. From the Khmer Rouge and Saddam Hussein then, to Saudi Arabia and Tahrir al-Sham now, the United States has supported many of the world’s most deplorable violators of human rights. Yet Nikki Haley has the arrogance and delusional belief that she has the moral high ground in chastising Syria and Russia before the U.N.?

    Just this week U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo clarified that the Saudi and UAE have acted in good faith in taking steps to reduce civilian casualties in their military operations in Yemen and that the U.S. military would keep providing both material and direct support to both nations in prosecuting their illegal war. U.S. manufactured and supplied bombs are being used to kill civilians in Yemen regularly, amounting to an estimated 15,000 killed or injured civilians over a period of three years. This does not take into account the deaths and suffering associated with the humanitarian crisis that has resulted from the Saudi-led coalition destroying virtually all infrastructure in the Houthi controlled part of the country. I am sure that it is also just another “unintended consequence” that al-Qaeda has expanded and strengthened its position in Yemen as a direct result of the conflict. When will any member state in the U.N. finally tell Nikki Haley that the Security Council must acknowledge that al-Qaeda has always been a proxy of Saudi Arabia and the United States?

    Children injured when a Saudi airstrike targeted a school bus in Saada, Yemen. A total of 51 civilians, 40 of them children below the age of 15 were killed in the strike. The United States supplies the aircraft, bombs, aerial refueling and intelligence gathering resources to support the bombing campaign.

    Nikki Haley continues to claim that Russia is directly facilitating an impending humanitarian disaster and war crime in the impending Syrian military operations to retake Idlib province, destroy a host of ISIS and al-Qaeda linked terrorist groups and liberate hundreds of thousands of civilians. She said the same thing during the battle to liberate Aleppo. Her lies were revealed when the SAA and Russia finally liberated the city and Syrian civilians who were kept as prisoners there by the Islamic terrorists were finally free of the horror of their captivity. Is it no wonder that tens of thousands of Syrian refugees displaced by the conflict are now returning to their home country?

    Apparently Nikki Haley sees no issue at all in Imperial America supporting Saudi Arabia and the UAE killing Yemeni civilians by the thousands in Yemen. The U.S. not only supplies the bombs, but directly provides in-flight refueling of the aircraft and the intelligence used to conduct the “precision” strikes that target schools, hospitals, funerals, and even school bus loads of children. Does this surprise anyone? U.S. coalition airstrikes against ISIL in Raqqa and Mosul killed an estimated 6,000 civilians. In Raqqa, U.S. aircraft conducted 90% of the airstrikes, and the U.S. fired at least 30,000 artillery rounds into the city. The U.S. has yet to pay any political or legal price for its indiscriminant destruction of these cities.

    One of thousands of airstrikes carried out on the Syrian city of Raqqa. The U.S. led coalition was widely criticized for its blatant disregard for civilian casualties in its targeting of the city as part of its offensive to destroy ISIL. They have yet to be held accountable for the estimated 800-1,000 civilians deaths caused.

    The Russian Response

    Russia needs to finally accept the reality that there is nothing to be gained by negotiating, or attempting to collaborate with the United States in solving problems. It’s like a shepherd using a wolf to defend his flock, or a detective enlisting the aid of a criminal to solve a crime that the criminal is a co-conspirator in perpetrating. It is illogical in the extreme. The Russian U.N. mission needs to call out Nikki Haley and the U.S. on its own deplorable record and hypocrisy and while seeking  the aid of other member states, must also realizing that most of them are bought-off by Washington. Hasn’t Haley repeatedly threatened to stop giving money to nations that do not support her resolutions?

    The Russians need to realize that they can never have a mutually respectful and beneficial relationship with the political and financial elites that control the United States. Russia will always find a friend in the American people, but Washington? This same elite despises the American people more than it does Putin or Assad. If it wasn’t for working class American citizens fed up with the U.S. establishment elite, we would likely already be in a direct war with Russia, China and Iran. I hope that the Russian political and military leadership understands this. Stop trying to placate Washington and start preparing to defend your nation. The Deep State will not stop at Ukraine or Syria. They desire the complete subjugation of Russia and a return to the Yeltsin days, or worse.

  • New Policy Proposal Would Deny Green Cards To Immigrants On Welfare

    The Trump administration is moving to fulfill another of President Trump’s campaign promises by implementing more restrictions on legal immigration by deporting green-card holders who rely too heavily on federal government programs like food stamps. According to the Associate Press, the Department of Homeland Security published a 447-page proposal on Saturday outlining its plans to expand restrictions that would disqualify legal immigrants from obtaining a green card if they rely too heavily on Medicaid, food stamps, housing vouchers and other forms of public assistance. According to US law, applicants must prove they won’t become a “public charge” – that they wouldn’t derive more than half their income from government programs – to achieve green-card status. Under the proposal, the federal government would begin factoring in non-monetary benefits like food stamps and Section 8 housing benefits.

    Nielsen

    The rule would also require public officials to take into account factors like mental health issues, cancer and heart disease, since all these factors could increase the likelihood of a person becoming a public charge.

    According to the Department of Homeland Security proposal, current and past receipt of certain public benefits above an expanded threshold would be “a heavily weighed negative factor” in granting green cards, as well as temporary visas. The proposal has yet to be entered into the Federal Register – but it will be entered into it at some point during “the coming weeks”, at which point a 60-day comment period will begin.

    If enacted, the rule could impact about 382,000 people a year, according to government estimates. However, opponents have said it could have a much wider impact as current green-card holders will avoid using badly needed benefits, according to the LA Times.

    “Those seeking to immigrate to the United States must show they can support themselves financially,” Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen said in a Saturday statement, adding that the new rule would “promote immigrant self-sufficiency and protect finite resources by ensuring that they are not likely to become burdens on American taxpayers.”

    The rule would not need to be approved by Congress following the comment period. Unsurprisingly, immigration advocates are already gearing up for a fight.

    Immigrant advocates and congressional Democrats have already vowed to fight the rule, and political observers said it could become a factor in upcoming midterm election that will determine which party controls Congress.

    “I see the Trump administration’s hostility towards immigrants as part of a strategy of mass distraction to keep the focus on fomenting outrage directed at Latinos while keeping the focus off of the corruption and graft that are gripping the White House and the GOP,” Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez (D-Ill.), chairman of the Immigration Task Force of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, said in a statement.

    “Self-sufficiency has been a basic principle of United States immigration law since this country’s earliest immigration statutes,” the nearly 500-page proposal states, insisting that “the availability of public benefits not constitute an incentive for immigration.”

    But supporters of the policy say it is long overdue.

    Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies in Washington, which advocates for limits on legal migration, called the new rule “long overdue.”

    “How wealthy do you have to be to be able to pay your own bills?” Krikorian said. “The point here is, can you support yourself? There’s no justification for admitting poor immigrants who need my money and your money to feed their kids…. We’ve already got enough people we have to support.”

    Krikorian said we live in a new age of immigration in which the poem inscribed at the base of the Statue of Liberty – “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free” — no longer applies.

    “Nobody coming over from Sicily to Ellis Island was accepting food stamps,” he said.

    The administration is choosing a risky time to move forward with the policy. As the AP points out, it could galvanize Democratic voters, who have been driven to the point of near-hysteria over Trump’s other attempts at tightening restrictions on both legal and illegal immigration.

    Then again, if the policy becomes law, it would be one more restriction preventing the “chain migration” – when legal immigrants seek to bring their entire families over to the US” – that Trump has promised to restrict.

    If that happens, we wouldn’t be surprised to see waves of outraged leftists congregating outside USCIS offices, demanding the administration back down from yet another “inhumane” policy.

  • Middle Eastern Black Swans Dot China's Belt & Road

    Authored by James Dorsey via MidEast Soccer blog,

    Edited remarks at the RSIS Book Launch of China and the Middle East; Venturing into the Maelstrom (Palgrave 2018), 20 September 2018.

    A podcast version of this story is available at https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/middle-eastern-black-swans-dot-chinas-belt-and-road

    If any one part of the world has forced China to throw its long-standing foreign and defense policy principles out the window and increasingly adopt attitudes associated with a global power, it is the greater Middle East, a region that stretches from the Atlantic coast of Africa to north-western China, a swath of land populated by the Arab, Turkic and Persian worlds.

    It was a series of incidents in 2011 during the popular Arab revolts that drove home the fact that China would not be able to protect with its existing foreign and defence policy kit its mushrooming Diaspora and exponentially expanding foreign investments that within a matter of a few years would be grouped as the infrastructure and connectivity-driven Belt and Road initiative linking the Eurasian landmass to the People’s Republic.

    Policy principles of non-interference in the domestic affairs of others, an economically-driven win-win approach as a sort of magic wand for problem solution, and no foreign military interventions or bases needed reinterpretation if not being dumped on the dustbin of history.

    The incidents included China’s approach to the revolt in Libya as it was happening when it deviated from its policy of non-interference by establishing parallel relations with the opposition National Council. The outreach to Libyan leader Col. Moammar Qadhafi’s opponents did not save it from being identified with the ancien regime once the opposition gained power. On the contrary, the Council made clear that China would be low on the totem pole because of its past support for the Qadhafi regime.

    The price for supporting autocratic rule in the greater Middle East meant that overseas Chinese nationals and assets became potential targets. To ensure the safety and security of its nationals in Libya, China was forced to evacuate 35,000 people, its most major foreign rescue operation. The evacuation was the first of similar operations in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

    The evacuations didn’t stop militants in Egypt’s Sinai from kidnapping 25 Chinese nationals and radicals in South Sudan from taking several Chinese hostages. The kidnappings sparked significant criticism on Chinese social media of the government’s seeming inability to protects its nationals and investments.

    With Uyghurs from China’s strategic north-western province of Xinjiang joining militant jihadists in Syria and two Uyghur knife attacks in Xinjiang itself in the cities of Hotam and Kashgar, the limits of China’s traditional foreign and defense policy meshed with its increasingly repressive domestic approach towards the ethnic Turkic people.

    Finally, the greater Middle East’s expectations were driven home in a brutal encounter between Arab businessmen and ethnic Chinese scholars and former officials in which the Arabs took the Chinese to task for wanting to benefit from Middle Eastern resources and trade relations without taking on political and geopolitical responsibilities they associated with a rising superpower.

    Add to all of this that in subsequent years it was becoming increasingly difficult for China to remain on the sidelines of the Middle East’s multiple conflicts and rivalries. This was particularly true with President Donald J. Trump’s coming to office.

    The greater Middle East’s problems escalated with Mr. Trump’s abandonment of any pretence of impartiality in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; his heating up of the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran by withdrawing from the 2015 international agreement curbing Iran’s nuclear program; and his toying with attempting to change the regime in Tehran that encouraged Saudi Arabia to step up Saudi support for Pakistani militants in the province of Baluchistan; the likely return of Uyghur jihadists in Syria to Central and South Asia that has prompted the establishment of Chinese military outposts in Tajikistan and Afghanistan and consideration of direct military intervention in a possible Syrian-Russian assault on Idlib, the last rebel-held stronghold in Syria; and finally the potential fallout of China’s brutal crackdown in Xinjiang.

    Already, the events in 2011 and since coupled with the mushrooming of Belt and Road-related investments has led to the creation of the country’s first foreign military base in Djibouti and the likely establishment of similar facilities in its string of pearls, the network of ports in the Indian Ocean and beyond.

    China’s potential policy dilemmas in the greater Middle East were enhanced by the fact that it doesn’t really have a Middle East policy that goes beyond its shaky, traditional foreign and defence policy principles and economics. That was evident when China in January 2016 on the eve of President Xi Jinping’s visit to the Middle East, the first by a Chinese head of state in seven years, issued its first Middle East-related policy white paper that fundamentally contained no new thinking and amounted to a reiteration of a win-win-based approach to the region.

    Moreover, with China dependent on the US security umbrella in the Gulf, Beijing sees itself as competitively cooperating with the United States in the Middle East. That is true despite the US-Chinese trade war; differences over the Iranian nuclear agreement which the United States has abandoned and China wants to salvage; and Mr. Trump’s partisan Middle East policy.

    China shares with the United States in general and even more so with the Trump administration a fundamental policy principle: stability rather than equitable political reform. China’s principle of non-interference is little more than another label for the US equivalent of long-standing support of autocracy in the Middle East in a bid to maintain stability.

    In some ways China is learning the lesson, despite recent developments in Xinjiang, that US President George W. Bush and Susan Rice, his national security advisor and subsequent secretary of state, learnt on 9/11. Within a matter of weeks after the Al Qaeda attacks on New York and Washington, Bush and Rice suggested that the United States was co-responsible for the attacks because of its support for autocracy that had fuelled anti-American and anti-Western sentiment. It was why Bush launched his ill-conceived democracy initiative.

    China, as a result of its political, economic and commercial approach towards the Belt and Road, is starting to have a similar experience. Chinese overseas outposts and assets have become targets, particularly in Pakistan but also in Central Asia.

    The kidnappings in 2011 in the Sinai and South Sudan were the beginning. Uyghurs joined groups like the Islamic State and Al Qaeda not because they were pan-Islamist jihadists but because they wanted to get experience they could later apply in militant struggle against the Chinese.

    Beyond profiling themselves in fighting in Syria, Uyghurs have trained with Malhama Tactical, a jihadist for profit Blackwater, the private military company created by Erik Prince.

    Anti-Chinese sentiment in countries like Kazakhstan and Tajikistan is on the rise.

    Iranians are grateful for Chinese support not only in the current battle over the nuclear accord but also in the previous round of international and US sanctions. They feel however that last time round they were taken for a ride in terms of high Chinese interest rates for project finance, the quality of goods delivered, and a perceived Chinese laxity in adhering to deadlines.

    Resentment of the fallout of the Belt and Road investment taps into the broader threat involved in supporting stability by backing autocratic regimes. That is nowhere truer than in the greater Middle East, a region that is in a period of volatile, often bloody and brutal transition. It’s a transition that started with the 2011 Arab revolts and has been pro-longed by a powerful Saudi-United Arab Emirates-led counterrevolution. Transitions take anywhere from a quarter to half a century. In other words, the Middle East is just at the beginning.

    China, like the United States did for decades, ignores the rumblings just below the surface even if the global trend is toward more authoritarian, more autocratic rule. 9/11 was the result of the United States and the West failing to put their ear to the ground and to take note of those rumblings.

    Of course, current rumblings may never explode. But the lesson of the people’s power movement in the Philippines in 1986, the video in late 2010 of a fruit and vegetable vendor in Tunisia who set himself alight that sparked the Arab revolts, months of street and online protests in Morocco in the last year, the mass protests in Jordan earlier this year against a draft tax bill that have now restarted because of the legislation’s resurrection, and the current protests in the Iraqi city of Basra potentially are the writing on the wall.  All it takes is a black swan.

    Said Financial Times columnist Jamil Anderlini:

    China is at risk of inadvertently embarking on its own colonial adventure in Pakistan – the biggest recipient of BRI investment and once the East India Company’s old stamping ground… Pakistan is now virtually a client state of China. Many within the country worry openly that its reliance on Beijing is already turning it into a colony of its huge neighbour. The risks that the relationship could turn problematic are greatly increased by Beijing’s ignorance of how China is perceived abroad and its reluctance to study history through a non-ideological lens…

    It is easy to envisage a scenario in which militant attacks on Chinese projects overwhelm the Pakistani military and China decides to openly deploy the People’s Liberation Army to protect its people and assets. That is how ‘win-win’ investment projects can quickly become the foundations of empire.”

    The Chinese crackdown in Xinjiang could just be a black swan on multiple fronts given the fact that its fallout is felt far beyond China’s borders. For starters, the wall of Western and Muslim silence is cracking with potentially serious consequences for China as well as the Islamic world.

    What is happening in Xinjiang is fundamentally different from past incidents including protests against a novel by Salman Rushdie and Ayatollah Khomeini’s fatwa ordering his killing; the 2006 Muslim boycott of Danish products because of controversial Danish cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed, and the more recent protests sparked by the burning of a Qur’an by a Florida evangelist. The Chinese campaign in Xinjiang challenges fundamentals of the Islamic faith itself.

    The earlier incidents were sparked by protests, primarily among South Asians in either Birmingham or Pakistan. This month has seen the first of Xinjiang-related anti-Chinese protests in Bangladesh and India. The first critical article on Xinjiang in the Pakistani press was published this week.

    Malaysia is the first Muslim country to speak out with condemnations by a senior figure in Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad’s political party as well as the country’s likely next head of government, Anwar Ibrahim.

    Consideration in Washington of Xinjiang-related sanctions by the Trump administration, coupled with United Nations reporting on the crackdown and a German and Swedish ban on deportations of Uyghurs, puts the issue on the map and increases pressure on Muslim nations, particularly those like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan that claim to speak on behalf of Islam.

    This together with the fact that Chinese support for autocratic or authoritarian rule creates a potential opportunity to export its model of the surveillance state, the most extreme example of which is on display in Xinjiang, constitutes risks and involves potential black swans. To be sure, Pakistan can hardly be described as a liberal society, but it is also not exactly an authoritarian state, yet Pakistan is China’s first export target. And others closer to home could follow.

    If all of this is more than enough to digest, factor in the geopolitics of Eurasia, certainly as they relate to the greater Middle East. The Chinese-backed Russian-Iranian-Turkish alliance is brittle at best, witness differences over the possible battle for Idlib and the post-war presence of Iran in Syria.

    Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran, and to a lesser degree Israel are players in what is a 21st century Great Game. That is particularly true in the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as Pakistan and as it relates to port diplomacy in Pakistan’s Gwadar and the Indian-backed Iranian port of Chabahar.

    Add to this the fact that if Saudi Arabia is the world’s swing oil producer, Iran is Eurasia’s swing gas producer with the potential to co-shape the supercontinent’s future energy architecture.

    And finally, there are multiple ways that China risks being sucked into the Saudi-Iranian rivalry not least if the United States and Saudi Arabia decide to take plans off the drawing board and initiate a campaign to destabilize Iran by stirring unrest among its Baloch, Kurdish, Iranian Arab and Azeri minorities.

    The long and short of this is that the Great Game in Eurasia remains largely undecided and that change in China’s foreign and defense policy is already a fact. The question is how all of this will affect China and how potential obstacles on the Belt and Road will play out.

  • US Will Be "Defenseless" Against New Russian Nuclear Sub Equipped With Hypersonic Missiles

    The Soviet-era arms race between the US and Russia is officially back on.

    To wit, Moscow is reportedly building a fleet of nuclear submarines armed with hypersonic ICBMs capable of delivering a nuclear payload ten times larger than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, according to CNBC, which cited a US intelligence report on the new weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at six new super weapons during a speech back in March where he also revealed that Russia is working on a nuclear missile capable of evading NATO’s ring of ABM defenses.

    Russia

    The new Borei II submarine, also known as the Borei-A, is a fourth-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine that will reportedly join the Russian Navy’s Northern and Pacific Fleets once it’s completed in 2024, according to the report. Each sub can carry up to 20 Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles, which can deliver a nuclear payload of 100 to 150 kilotons. The sub will be the first new Russian sub developed in the post-Soviet era.

    What’s worse is that, as of now, the US doesn’t possess adequate defenses to protect against Bulava missiles.

    What’s more, unlike a traditional missile, which carries one warhead, the Bulava missile is capable of carrying up to 10 nuclear and hypersonic weapons on its tip. That means one Borei II submarine could potentially launch 200 hypersonic weapons, a threat the U.S. is currently unable to defend against.

    A hypersonic weapon can travel at Mach 5 or higher, which is at least five times faster than the speed of sound. This means that a hypersonic threat can travel about one mile per second.

    Back in March, Putin showed a digital representation of how one of Russia’s new weapons could evade ABM defenses by traveling high into the stratosphere. The Russian president also criticized the US and NATO for forcing Russia to resort to these weapons. He also dared any of Russia’s geopolitical rivals to call the country weak.

    “I want to tell all those who have fueled the arms race over the last 15 years, sought to win unilateral advantages over Russia, introduced unlawful sanctions aimed to contain our country’s development: You have failed to contain Russia,” Putin said during his March national address.

    A hypersonic weapon can travel at Mach five or faster, which means it is five times faster than the speed of sound, traveling at about one mile per second.

    And the new sub isn’t the only super-weapon that Russia is preparing to add to its arsenal. Of the six weapons Putin unveiled at his speech earlier this year, CNBC reported that two of them will be ready for war by 2020.

    “We don’t have any defense that could deny the employment of such a weapon against us,” Air Force Gen. John Hyten, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in March, following Putin’s comments.

    With this in mind, perhaps Democrats in Congress can stop complaining about the ostensibly friendly relationship between President Trump and Putin and also stop agitating against Trump’s plans to allocate more money to the military.

  • Second Kavanaugh Accuser Emerges Alleging Sexual Misconduct; Feinstein Demands Hearing Cancelled

    A second woman has come forward to accuse Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct – this time while he was a Yale university during the 1983-1984 academic year, according to a new report by Ronan Farrow of the New Yorker

    The woman, Deborah Ramirez, 53, claims that Kavanaugh waved his penis in her face during a drunken dormitory party and “caused her to touch it without her consent as she pushed him away.” 

    For Ramirez, the sudden attention has been unwelcome, and prompted difficult choices. She was at first hesitant to speak publicly, partly because her memories contained gaps because she had been drinking at the time of the alleged incident. In her initial conversations with The New Yorker, she was reluctant to characterize Kavanaugh’s role in the alleged incident with certainty. After six days of carefully assessing her memories and consulting with her attorney, Ramirez said that she felt confident enough of her recollections to say that she remembers Kavanaugh had exposed himself at a drunken dormitory party, thrust his penis in her face, and caused her to touch it without her consent as she pushed him away. Ramirez is now calling for the F.B.I. to investigate Kavanaugh’s role in the incident. “I would think an F.B.I. investigation would be warranted,” she said.

    Specifically, Ramirez recalls “a penis being in front of my face,” and that despite being inebriated, someone encouraging her to “kiss it.” 

    Despite acknowledging “significant gaps in her memories of the evening” due to being incredibly drunk, Ramirez then recalls someone yelling down a hallway “Brett Kavanaugh just put his penis in Debbie’s face!”

    She recalled that the party took place in a suite at Lawrance Hall, in the part of Yale known as Old Campus, and that a small group of students decided to play a drinking game together. “We were sitting in a circle,” she said. “People would pick who drank.” Ramirez was chosen repeatedly, she said, and quickly became inebriated. At one point, she said, a male student pointed a gag plastic penis in her direction. Later, she said, she was on the floor, foggy and slurring her words, as that male student and another stood nearby. (Ramirez identified the two male onlookers, but, at her request, The New Yorker is not naming them.)

    A third male student then exposed himself to her. “I remember a penis being in front of my face,” she said. “I knew that’s not what I wanted, even in that state of mind.” She recalled remarking, “That’s not a real penis,” and the other students laughing at her confusion and taunting her, one encouraging her to “kiss it.” She said that she pushed the person away, touching it in the process. Ramirez, who was raised a devout Catholic, in Connecticut, said that she was shaken. “I wasn’t going to touch a penis until I was married,” she said. “I was embarrassed and ashamed and humiliated.” She remembers Kavanaugh standing to her right and laughing, pulling up his pants. “Brett was laughing,” she said. “I can still see his face, and his hips coming forward, like when you pull up your pants.” She recalled another male student shouting about the incident. “Somebody yelled down the hall, ‘Brett Kavanaugh just put his penis in Debbie’s face,’ ” she said. “It was his full name. I don’t think it was just ‘Brett.’ And I remember hearing and being mortified that this was out there.”  –New Yorker

    Meanwhile, lawyer Michael Avenatti – best known for representing adult entertainer Stephanie Clifford – said on Twitter that he represents a woman “with credible information regarding Judge Kavanaugh,” and that his client is not Ramirez. 

    In response, Kavanaugh issued a statement saying that “This alleged event from 35 years ago did not happen. The people who knew me then know that this did not happen, and have said so. This is a smear, plain and simple. I look forward to testifying on Thursday about the truth, and defending my good name—and the reputation for character and integrity I have spent a lifetime building—against these last-minute allegations.”

    Meanwhile, White House spokeswoman Kerri Kupec said in a statement: “This 35-year-old, uncorroborated claim is the latest in a coordinated smear campaign by the Democrats designed to tear down a good man. This claim is denied by all who were said to be present and is wholly inconsistent with what many women and men who knew Judge Kavanaugh at the time in college say.”

    Predictably, the entire hearing narrative has now been thrown into disarray, and late on Sunday night, Dianne Feinstein tweeted that “Thursday’s hearing should be canceled in light of a disturbing new allegation of sexual misconduct against Brett Kavanaugh. The FBI must investigate ALL allegations.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Feinstein sent the following letter to Chuck Grassley:

    “I am writing to request an immediate postponement of any further proceedings related to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh,” Feinstein wrote. “I also ask that the newest allegations of sexual misconduct be referred to the FBI for investigation, and that you join our request for the White House to direct the FBI to investigate the allegations of Christine Blasey Ford as well as these new claims.”

    Her conclusion: “It is time to set politics aside. We must ensure that a thorough and fair investigation is conducted before moving forward.”

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Today’s News 23rd September 2018

  • A Path To War? China Cancels US Trade Talks As 'Skirmish' Escalates

    Following a surge in Chinese, European, and much of the US equity markets this week amid hopes that the so-called ‘trade skirmish’ was less ‘war-like’ than expected, China just dropped an early Saturday morning (local time) tape bomb that is sure to resurrect ‘trade war’ talk.

    After President Trump slapped a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese goods, targeting 10 percent duties on $200 billion of goods; the two camps were scheduled to meet in order to dial back tensions. As we noted earlier in the week, China had ‘downgraded’ the team with a mid-level delegation from China due to travel to the U.S. capital to pave the way for Vice Premier Liu’s visit.

    That was what sparked hope that this was just a trade skirmish (as Jamie Dimon attempted to play down), sending stocks soaring all week.

    However, that is all over now.

    The Journal  just reported on Friday that, according to sources, China has rescinded the proposals to send two delegations to Washington.

    Chinese officials have said such pressure tactics wouldn’t induce them to cooperate.

    By declining to participate in the talks, the people said, Beijing is following up on its pledge to avoid negotiating under threat.

    “Everything the U.S. does hasn’t given any impression of sincerity and goodwill,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a press briefing Friday.

    “We hope that the U.S. side will take measures to correct its mistakes.”

    *  *  *

    The timing of this news, after the exuberant equity week, is also noteworthy as it follows Ray Dalio’s, founder of Bridgewater, warnings that the current trade tensions mirror those of the 1930s:

    “I think that the 1935-40 period is most analogous to the current period and that it is worth reflecting on what happened then when thinking about US-Chinese relations now. 

    To be clear, I’m not saying that we are on a path to a shooting war, but I am saying that we have to watch what path we are on, given these cause-effect relationships that history has taught us and that are described in the template. This excerpt describes how the economic and political conditions of the late 1930s evolved into the wars that followed. “

    Read more here…

    We have discussed this case-effect relation before…

    Get ready for some Sunday night futures fun and games…

  • US Nuclear Safety: A Critical Problem That Has Largely Been Kept Out Of The Public Eye

    Authored by Peter Korzun via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The issue of nuclear safety has been a hot topic in the second half of 2018. It has just been discussed in detail at the 62nd International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conference in Geneva, which was held Sept. 17-21. The international conference on “The Security of Radioactive Material: The Way Forward for Prevention and Detection,” which is scheduled for Vienna, Dec. 3-7, is going to be a landmark international event that will be a focus for the media spotlight.

    It is true that poor storage conditions and low nuclear-safety standards threaten the environment and increase the possibility of nuclear materials getting into the wrong hands.

    Russia can be proud of its achievements in this area. The days of the 1990s when it needed outside help to tackle this problem are long gone. In 2013, Moscow ended the joint Russian-US Cooperative Threat Reduction program (the Nunn-Lugar program) because it is now able to manage these issues on its own. The cooperation over the secure storage of weapons-grade materials was suspended in 2014. The IAEA reports that today Russia boasts high nuclear-safety standards. Sophisticated protection equipment has been installed and all nuclear sites are jointly safeguarded by the military, ROSATOM’s security agency, and on-site security teams. The materials are properly safeguarded during transportation. A special program to upgrade the transportation infrastructure has been in place since 2010.

    The report “The Use of Highly Enriched Uranium as Fuel in Russia,” issued by the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), a group based at Princeton University, admits that the country has made great progress to ensure the safety of uranium stockpiles and transportation. It also includes criticism, the absence of which would be odd in any report prepared by a US think tank. It states that “highly enriched uranium (HEU) poses special concerns, as it can be used relatively easily in simple nuclear explosive devices by states with limited nuclear weapon expertise or even by non-state actors … [Russia] has not made highly enriched uranium minimization a priority.” The paper concludes that it is essential to secure Russia’s commitment to the development of a comprehensive, global, highly enriched uranium minimization strategy. Greenpeace has also acknowledged progress, but criticized Russia for what it sees as shortcomings. But one thing is certain – this is not a country where nuclear materials where nuclear materials go missing while being transported to or from storage sites. They are well guarded and all accounted for.

    Russia is not the only power whose contribution to a global nuclear-safety strategy is crucial. The situation in the United States offers good cause for concern. Repeated safety lapses have hobbled the Los Alamos National Laboratory. It was sheer good luck that prevented real trouble from happening to the surrounding area. According to Science, “most remarkably, Los Alamos’s managers still have not figured out a way to fully meet the most elemental nuclear safety standards.” “There’s a systemic issue here,” said Michaele Brady Raap, a former president of the American Nuclear Society and a member of the Energy Department’s elite Criticality Safety Support Group, a team of 12 government experts that analyzes and recommends ways to improve struggling federal nuclear-safety programs. “There are a lot of things there [at Los Alamos] that are examples of what not to do.”

    According to the Center for Public Safety, two security experts from the Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory drove to San Antonio, Texas, in March 2017 with a sensitive mission: to retrieve dangerous nuclear materials from a nonprofit research lab there and transport them safely back to their state without allowing the materials to fall into the wrong hands. The materials — plutonium and cesium — as well as equipment were stolen on that trip and have never been found. They were simply left unattended in a car! The incident was concealed from the public, but the information was obtained by the Center for Public Safety under the Freedom of Information Act. That source reports that this was just a part of a much larger quantity of plutonium that over the years has gone quietly missing from stockpiles owned by the US military.

    Madeleine Jennewein of Harvard University writes in her blog, which is published by Science in the News (SITN), that “Across the United States, nuclear waste is accumulating in poorly maintained piles. 90,000 metric tons of nuclear waste requiring disposal are currently in temporary storage. The United States, however, has yet to construct a long-term storage solution for this waste, leaving the nuclear material vulnerable to extreme weather events such as hurricanesrising sea levels, and wildfire.”

    In 2016, seven electrical engineers who worked for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission took the unusual step of petitioning the NRC as private citizens in hopes of forcing regulators to fix a “significant safety concern” that affects all but one of the nation’s 100 nuclear plants. Nuclear waste is also a big problem in the US. Safety concerns plague key sites that have been proposed for nuclear bomb production.

    Nuclear safety in the US is a urgent issue that deserves far greater public attention. According to reports, much information is deliberately kept out of the public eye. To be honest, today it is Russia who appears to be in a position to assist the US in its efforts to tackle the issue of nuclear safety, instead of the other way around. Busy waging trade wars with other countries and getting involved in distant conflicts, such as in Syria, that have nothing whatsoever to do with the United States, Washington is largely ignoring a real problem that is threatening the country’s national security each and every day. 

  • "Lifelong Friend" Of Kavanaugh Accuser Denies Attending Party Where Alleged Sexual Assault Occurred

    A woman believed to have been one of five people at a party some 35 years ago where Christine Blasey Ford claims she was sexually assaulted by Brett Kavanaugh has become the fourth person to deny any recollection of the event.  

    In a Saturday night email to the Senate Judiciary Committee also received by several news outlets, Leland Ingham Keyser – a “longtime friend” of Blasey Ford’s said through her attorney: 

    “Simply put, Ms. Keyser does not know Mr. Kavanaugh and she has no recollection of ever being at a party or gathering where he was present, with, or without, Dr. Ford,” said Keyser’s attorney Howard Walsh, who has been “engaged in the limited capacity” of corresponding with the committee on behalf of Keyser, according to Politico.

    Kavanaugh and Mark Judge – the other teenager allegedly in the room during the alleged sexual assault – have both stated that they have no recollection of the incident, while a third man who Ford claims was at the party – Patrick J. Smyth, also denied any recollection of the event, telling the Judiciary Committee last week in a statement: “I understand that I have been identified by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford as the person she remembers as ‘PJ’ who supposedly was present at the party she described in her statements to the Washington Post,” Smyth wrote in his statement. “I am issuing this statement today to make it clear to all involved that I have no knowledge of the party in question; nor do I have any knowledge of the allegations of improper conduct she has leveled against Brett Kavanaugh.”

    Smyth added: “Personally speaking, I have known Brett Kavanaugh since high school and I know him to be a person of great integrity, a great friend, and I have never witnessed any improper conduct by Brett Kavanaugh towards women. To safeguard my own privacy and anonymity, I respectfully request that the Committee accept this statement in response to any inquiry the Committee may have.”

    On Saturday night, a tentative deal was reached for Ford to testify publicly on Thursday, according to the New York Times

    After a brief call late on Saturday, the woman’s lawyers and aides to Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, the Republican chairman of the Judiciary Committee, planned to talk again Sunday morning to continue the halting negotiations over the conditions of the testimony, according to three people familiar with the call. Aides to Senator Dianne Feinstein of California, the committee’s top Democrat, were also involved. –NY Times

    The Times notes, however, that Leland Keyser’s statement “seemed to eliminate any chance of corroboration of Dr. Blasey’s account by anyone who attended the high school party where she says she was assaulted.” 

    If no deal is reached for Blasey Ford’s testimony next week, Sen. Grassley will be left to decide on Sunday whether or not to move ahead with a scheduled vote to confirm Kavanaugh on Monday. 

    Grassley has engaged in a back-and-forth with Ford’s legal team, allowing them to miss several deadlines to continue negotiations. While Grassley may be trying to avoid the appearance of the Judiciary Committee panel of 11 men bullying an female victim alleging sexual assault, many conservatives have expressed frustration at the Chairman’s acquiescence to virtually every demand Ford has made. 

    Also potentially damaging to Blasey Ford’s claim is a theory presented Thursday by Ed Whelan,  a former clerk to USSC Justice Antonin Scalia and currently president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center (EPPC), a conservative think tank. Using entirely circumstantial evidence which could certainly ruin the life of the man at the center of the new theory, Whelan suggested that Kavanaugh’s high school doppelgänger, Chris Garrett, may have in fact been responsible for Blasey Ford’s recollection of the alleged incident

    Brett Kavanaugh (left)

    Whelan apologized for publicly naming Kavanaugh’s look-alike hours later, perhaps to provide legal cover, however he did not retract his theory that Ford may be “misremembering” the incident. 

    Professional help

    Also casting doubt on the timing and purpose of Ford’s 11th hour claim against Kavanaugh is the Friday revalation that Ford’s current political adviser – former Obama and Clinton White House official Ricky Seidman, had allegedly been working on Ford’s situation since July – outlining a plan on a newly released audio tape to use the allegation as political fodder to derail Kavanaugh’s confirmation, and if unsuccessful, at least politically harm Republicans during midterms

    “While I think at the outset, looking at the numbers in the Senate, it’s not extremely likely that the nominee can be defeated,” says Seidman. “I would absolutely withhold judgement as the process goes on. I think that I would not reach any conclusion about the outcome in advance.”

    What’s more, the recording makes clear that even if Kavanaugh is confirmed, Democrats can use the doubt cast over him during midterms.

    “Over the coming days and weeks, there will be a strategy that will emerge, and I think it’s possible that that strategy might ultimately defeat the nominee… whether or not it ultimately defeats the nominee, it will help people understand why it’s so important that they vote and the deeper principles that are involved in it.

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    Meanwhile, over 200 women have defended Kavanaugh’s moral character, including two ex-girlfriends who vouched for the Judge. 

    He was always a perfect gentleman, and I vouch for him completely,” Maura Fitzgerald said. “Brett Kavanaugh and I have been good friends since high school. I dated him in college and he was and is nothing like the person who has been described” by Christine Blasey Ford.

    He always conducted himself honorably with me at all times when we were together,” Fitzgerald explained.

    Another woman who dated Kavanaugh in high school, Maura Kane, agreed with Fitzgerald.

    “I’ve been friends with Brett Kavanaugh for over 35 years, and dated him during high school,” Kane explained. “In every situation where we were together he always respectful, kind and thoughtful. The accusations leveled against him in no way represent the decent young man I knew.”

    Kane concluded, “We remain good friends and I admire him as a husband, father and professional.” –PJ Media

    Meanwhile, Ford has been backed largely by people with no knowledge of the situation, such as celebrities and non-public figures who simply believe her story

  • Latest iPhones Greeted With Abysmal Demand In China

    Apple’s latest – and disappointing – iPhone product unveiling also revealed the two biggest headaches troubling CEO Tim Cook today: first is the lack of a new “must have” gadget (Apple watch EKG aside), with the iPhone failing to impress the faithful for the second year in a row, and prompting sellside analysts to conclude that for one more year there won’t be a “must have”  iPhone supercycle. Second is that as a result of this lack of creativity and innovation, and perhaps due to market saturation, iPhone sales have now been largely stagnant for three years, with AAPL reporting a modest decline in iPhone sales in the last quarter.

    And while we have yet to see channel check data on the latest iPhone sales in the US, anecdotal reports from China suggest that Tim Cook’s latest product offerings may be nothing short of a complete flop, as retailers and resellers in Hong Kong and mainland China reported one of their worst sale records for the latest batch of iPhones when they hit the stores on Friday.

    According to SCMP, just a handful of people had lined up outside the Apple store in Causeway Bay in Hong Kong before it opened at 8am on Friday. Some who planned to resell the phones to scalpers only offered HK$1 (US$0.13) more than the original price. Some were even offered a discount.

    Buyer Wilson Poon, 30, gave up on trying to resell his two 256GB iPhone XS Maxes to scalpers waiting outside the Causeway Bay store after he was offered less than what he had just paid.

    “The scalpers here offer HK$100 lower [than the original of price of HK$10,799, US$1,382]. Sin Tat Plaza should offer HK$300-400 [US$38-51] higher than the original price, according to my experience,” he said, referring to the shopping centre in Mong Kok where numerous phone repair and accessories shops are located.

    Ivy Wong, a 30-year-old clerk, also failed to resell her 256GB gold iPhone XS Max.

    When the stores opened around 10am, scalper demand emerged only for the high-end phone, with scalpers only interested in buying the 512GB iPhone XS Max phones at HK$300-500 higher than the original price, as models with smaller storage were ignored. Then, around noon at Sin Tat Plaza, the smaller 64GB and 256GB iPhone XS were sold to shops at the mall at HK$249 to HK$399 lower than the original price, according to a local online forum.

    While scalper demand is a subjective metric, it demonstrates the “coolness factor” of the latest Apple gadget among the more fanatical supporters. Only in this case, the word “fanatic” is used loosely, because compared to prior years the latest iPhone products simply failed to provoke any notable interest.

    Sheung Leung from G World at Sin Tat Plaza, who sells the gadget mainly to local and mainland customers, said that profit was slashed by half compared to recent years. “Two or three years ago, Hong Kong sold the product earlier than the mainland, so many mainland customers come deliberately to buy the phones. Now, only those who happen to be travelling here would drop by to get one,” Leung said.

    Meanwhile in China, retailers found sales disappointing as well, with one Shenzhen vendor claiming that “the new iPhone was one of the worst sales situations she had encountered for many years.

    Why the tepid demand? First and foremost the stratospheric price.

    At Huaqianbei, an electronics manufacturing hub in Shenzhen, smartphone retailer Cat Fu said she sold just two units of the iPhone XR in the morning of its debut. The two phones – one gold and one silver – were bought in Hong Kong for HK$9,499 (8,290 yuan) and sold for 9,860 yuan (HK$11,289) in mainland China. The same model on Apple’s official China website is 9,588 yuan (HK$10,977).

    “The prices of the new iPhones are crazily high and ordinary consumers could not afford them. And most of the customers say they do not see a big difference between new iPhones and the old ones,” Fu said.

    Not even Apple’s traditional gimmick of using online delivery delays to “represent” strong demand has worked this time around.

    Li Yiqiang, who bought a gold Hong Kong-version of the 64GB iPhone XR Max at the price of 9,800 yuan (HK$11,220) in Huaqiangbei, said: “If I place an order in the Apple Store, I have to wait for 10 days to get one. But now I only pay 200 yuan (HK$229) more to get one immediately. Why not?” Li said.

    And in the worst possible news for Apple which tries to capitalize on the annual upgrade cycle by offering its latest phones at prices that are sometimes orders of magnitude higher than the competition, many of the potential buyers will simply turn to older, lower priced models.

    “Now we notice a lot of consumers are considering to buy older versions like iPhone 7 and iPhone 8,” said Fu.

    “We know the current economic situation is not good and many people are strapped for cash. I could hardly become optimistic about the new iPhone sales this year.”

    In an attempt to offset the tepid – if not declining – demand for iPhones with little innovation or the elusive “must have” factor, Tim Cook has instead focused on average selling prices, which in recent years have been rising, helping overall revenues. And, as we showed last week, Apple is hoping to capitalize on more of the same this holiday season with the iPhone Xs’ sharply higher price points.

    However, in light of the abysmal reception of the new product in China, Apple’s plan to offset declining volumes with higher ASPs may have finally met a brick wall, and not just due to the higher price: the magic no longer appears to be there.

    I do not feel excited to get the new one. The iPhone XR Max does not look very different from the older ones. I think Chinese people now are spoiled by multiple choices of mobile phones” said HK-buyer Li Yiqiang.

    If Li’s sentiment is representative of what the typical iPhone buyer thinks, the world’s most valuable company will soon have to dig very deep in its bag of “buyback tricks” to keep the the typical AAPL stock buyer happy.

  • Unipolar Moments Never Last More Than A Moment

    Authored by Martin Sieff via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    American leaders, politicians, policymakers and pundits are fond of talking about the “Unipolar Moment” and “Hyper Power” position that they imagine the United States enjoys in the world.

    Totally lacking from this fantasy are any inconvenient historical facts.

    The US Unipolar Moment (insofar as it existed at all) lasted less than a decade from the break-up of the Soviet Union at the end of December 1991 to June 15, 2001. The US “moment” barely made it into the 21st Century.

    On that epochal day of June 15, 2001, two major events happened.

    First, US President George W. Bush gave a speech in Warsaw pledging to integrate the three tiny Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania into NATO as a prime strategic goal of the United States.

    That very same day, Russia and China created with four Central Asian nations the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): The most populous and powerful international security organization in history.

    This year, the SCO doubled in population by adding India and Pakistan at the same time – two major nuclear powers with a combined population of 1.5 billion people. That means the SCO now includes more than 3 billion people, around 40 percent of the human race.

    From the moment the SCO was created – dedicated from its inception to preserve and protect a multipolar world from the domination of any one power, the US unipolar moment was dead and gone.

    This reality was confirmed less than three months later when al-Qaeda’s terror attacks of September 11, 2001 killed almost 3,000 people. More Americans died that day than in the 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

    George W. Bush should have been impeached for his gross incompetence. Instead his popularity soared. Imagining the Unipolar Moment (or Era) to be still in full flood he invaded Afghanistan later that year and Iraq less than two years later. The United States is still endlessly stuck in those unending wars.

    The patterns of history – totally ignored by the US media, pundit-ocracy and political world – in fact teach this lesson consistently. Over the past half a millennium, there have been several unipolar moments for great powers seeking to reign supreme over the world and they all collapsed after only a few years.

    When Habsburg Spain and its allies decisively defeated the huge fleet of the mighty Ottoman Empire at the Battle of Lepanto in 1571, Spain’s imperial domination over Europe seemed assured. But in fact Spain was already embroiled in a Dutch revolt that started in 1568. Over the following decades, it became even more exhausting than the current US deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq.

    King Philip II of Spain’s dream of domination was totally buried only 17 years after Lepanto with the destruction of his giant Armada fleet to conquer England in 1588.

    France rose next. Its domination over Europe appeared to be sealed with the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. But by the mid-1660s, glory-crazed Louis XIV, the so-called “Sun King” had already repeated the Spanish mistake and bogged his country down in half a century of endless wars in what is now Belgium, the Netherlands and southern Germany. France’s unipolar moment lasted less than 20 years.

    The British came next. Even after winning the Napoleonic Wars against France, they knew they could not rule the world alone and were forced to share it with the far more conservative major monarchies of Europe – Russia, Austria-Hungary and Prussia.

    Finally in 1848, the kings of France, Austria-Hungary and Prussia were all rocked or topped by liberal popular revolutions. The British thought then, as the Americans did in 1989-91, that their Unipolar Moment had finally come and would last for eternity. The whole world would look to London for guidance and wisdom.

    It didn’t: By 1871, Prussia under its Iron Chancellor Otto von Bismarck had united Germany, smashed France, by then Britain’s ally and humiliatingly swept the British out of any continental pretensions of power and influence.

    When asked what he would do if the tiny British Army ever invaded North Germany, Bismarck replied that he would send the police to arrest it.

    After the defeat of Imperial Germany in World War I, Britain seemed to enjoy another hyper-power moment. The isolationist United States and the Soviet Union both temporarily withdrew from the world stage.

    However, that British fantasy did not even last until the rise of Hitler in 1933. Two years earlier in 1931, Imperial Japan had occupied Manchuria – a huge chunk of Northeastern China: British military leaders were forced to admit to Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald there was nothing they could do about it. Britain’s unipolar moment had lasted only 12 years – from 1919 to 1931.

    Once these historical facts are understood, it is easy to see why the US Unipolar Moment only lasted even less time than Britain’s 20th century one had – less than a decade.

    Since 2001, the United States has bankrupted and exhausted itself, just as Habsburg Spain, Bourbon France and post-Victorian Britain did before it in futile, doomed and ludicrous attempts to deny and roll back the inevitable tides of history.

    That should come as no surprise: As Friedrich Hegel warned us, “The only thing that we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.”

  • Gowdy: No National Security Risk In Classified Russia Docs; DOJ Stonewalling Over Brennan, FBI Embarassment

    Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) said in a Thursday interview that the information contained in the Russia documents withheld by the Department of Justice (DOJ) pose no risk to national security, and would be embarrassing to former CIA Director John Brennan, the DOJ and the FBI. 

    “I’ve read it. Some of it’s embarrassing for the Department of Justice — some of it’s embarrassing for the FBI. Embarrassment is not a reason to classify something,” said Gowdy. “A lot of it should be embarrassing to John Brennan, and maybe therein lies why he is so adamant that this information not be released.”

    “I don’t think it’s going to change anyone’s mind, but I’ve seen nothing in it that is going to jeopardize the national security interest of this country,” Gowdy added. “Other than one document related to George Papadopoulos, I don’t think people are going to be that interested in it. And I don’t think any mind’s are going to be changed.”

    Watch:

    Brennan, meanwhile, suggested in a Tuesday MSNBC interview that government officials should resign rather than comply with President Trump’s order to release the records

    Brennan, who now serves as an MSNBC contributor, has been a vocal critic of Trump’s over the past year. Trump recently responded by ordering Brennan’s security clearance revoked. Gowdy criticized Brennan, saying the Obama appointee is “part of the reason we are in this historic conundrum.” He did not describe what information in the classified documents will embarrass Brennan and other government officials. But as CIA director, Brennan was directly involved in gathering and sharing intelligence used to investigate whether members of the Trump campaign colluded with the Russian government.

    The documents in question are related to Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrants obtained against former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page as well as FBI notes of interviews used to obtain the warrants. –Daily Caller

    According to House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA), Trump’s order to declassify a broad swath of DOJ/FBI documents related to the Russia investigation will also expose the infamous “insurance policy” referred to in an August 15, 2016 text between former FBI employees Peter Strzok and Lisa Page. 

    Speaking with Fox News‘s Laura Ingraham last week, Nunes said that declassification will provide exculpatory evidence, including a dozen or so 302 witness interview forms from DOJ official Bruce Ohr which may shed light on his significant relationship with former MI6 spy Christopher Steele and “many other rotten apples.” 

    “A lot of people think that the insurance policy was getting the FISA warrant on [former Trump campaign aide] Carter Page,” Nunes told Ingraham, adding “We actually believe it was more explicit than that.”

    Trump also ordered the DOJ to release text messages from several key players in the Trump-Russia investigation, “without redaction,” of former FBI Director James Comey, his deputy Andrew McCabe, now-fired special agent Peter Strzok, former FBI attorney Lisa Page and twice-demoted DOJ official Bruce Ohr. 

    A spokesman from the Justice Department told Fox News that the DOJ and FBI “are already working with the Director of National Intelligence to comply with the President’s order,” while ODNI spokesperson Kellie Wade told the network: “As requested by the White House, the ODNI is working expeditiously with our interagency partners to conduct a declassification review of the documents the President has identified for declassification.

    Meanwhile, Trump agreed to delay the release on Friday – allowing the DOJ’s Inspector General to review the documents prior to declassification. 

    In Friday morning Tweets, Trump said: “I met with the DOJ concerning the declassification of various UNREDACTED documents. They agreed to release them but stated that so doing may have a perceived negative impact on the Russia probe. Also, key Allies’ called to ask not to release. Therefore, the Inspector General has been asked to review these documents on an expedited basis. I believe he will move quickly on this (and hopefully other things which he is looking at). In the end I can always declassify if it proves necessary. Speed is very important to me – and everyone!”

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     So it looks like Brennan’s embarrassment has been delayed…

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  • Saturday Satire: Down With The Working Classes!

    Authored by CJ Hopkins via Unz.com,

    If the Left is ever going to come together to save the world from Donald Trump and his legions of fascistic Putin-Nazis, we’re going to need to confront our primary enemy… the international working classes.

    Yes, my comrades, I’m afraid it’s time to face the facts, depressing as they are. The working classes are not our friends. Just look at how they’ve been betraying us… and after all we’ve done for them all these years!

    This cannot be allowed to continue, not if we are going to rescue democracy from Trump, Putin, Assad, the Iranians, and Palestinian kids with terrorist kites, and eventually stem the blood-dimmed tide of neo-fascist anti-Globalism!

    Now, OK, I know you’re probably asking, “how can the international working classes possibly be the enemy of the Left?” and “wouldn’t that render the whole concept of the Left completely absurd and essentially meaningless?” and other pertinent questions like that. And that’s totally fine, you’re allowed to ask that. Questioning aspects of the official narrative the ruling classes are forcing everyone to conform to like members of a worldwide cult doesn’t make you a Nazi or anything. It’s perfectly OK to ask such questions, as long as you don’t continue to ask them, over and over, and over again, after the facts have been explained to you. Here are those facts, one more time.

    The international working classes are racists. They are misogynists. Xenophobic transphobes. They do not think the way we want them to. Some of them actually still believe in God. They are white supremacists. Anti-Semites. Gun-toting, Confederate-flag-flying rednecks. Most of them have never even heard of terms like “intersectionality,” “TERF,” and so on. They do not respect the corporate media. They think that news sources like the Washington Post, The New York Times, The Guardian, CNN, MSNBC, BBC, and so on, are basically propaganda outlets for the global corporations and oligarchs who own them, and thus are essentially no different from FOX, whose pundits they believe every word of. Their minds are so twisted by racism and xenophobia that they can’t understand how global capitalism, the graduated phase-out of national sovereignty, the privatization of virtually everything, the debt-enslavement of nearly everyone, and the replacement of their so-called “cultures” with an ubiquitous, smiley-faced, gender-neutral, non-oppressive, corporate-friendly, Disney simulation of culture are actually wonderfully progressive steps forward on the road to a more peaceful, less offensive world.

    Now this has been proved in numerous studies with all kinds of charts and graphs and so on. And not only by the corporate statisticians, and the corporate media, and liberal think tanks. Why, just this week, Mehdi Hasan, in an exasperated jeremiad in the pages of The Intercept, that bastion of fearless, adversarial journalism owned by billionaire Pierre Omidyar, proved, once again, that Donald Trump was elected because PEOPLE ARE GODDAMN RACISTS!

    Apparently, Hasan has just about had it with these Putin-loving Trump-apologists proposing that general dissatisfaction with global capitalism, neoliberalism, and identity politics could have had anything to do with Americans electing a bombastic ass clown with absolutely no political experience to the highest office in the land. Hasan cites a number of expert studies, among them one by the Democracy Fund, which just happens to be another Omidyar outfit. But let’s not get all paranoid or anything. There are literally hundreds of such studies at this point, each and every one of which has been cited by the mainstream media, the alternative media, the far-alternative media, and virtually every Trump-obsessed loon with a blog or a Facebook or Twitter account.

    Look, I realize the truth is painful, but the science of statistics leaves no room for doubt. As much as some of us may want to deny it, the fact is, the country that elected Barack Obama (who is Black) president, twice, has been transformed by Putin’s brainwashing agents into a cesspool of xenophobia and racism, and it is up to us lefties to set things right!

    Now, to do this, we need to unite the Left, and get everyone marching in lockstep, and so on. Which means that we need to identify and weed out all the fake leftists among us. Then, and only then (i.e., after we’ve tracked down, sanctimoniously denounced, and exiled any and all neo-Stasserist “alt-Right” infiltrators, Sputnik leftists, and Assad-apologists), can we turn our attention to meeting face-to-face with the international working classes and sanctimoniously denouncing them as a bunch of filthy racists.

    OK, that sounds a little harsh, and possibly totally idiotic, but what other choice do we really have? If we’re going to defeat these Putin-Nazis, a few eggs are going to have to get broken. This is not the time to abandon our commitment to imposing our identity-based ideology on every last person on the planet Earth, or to indulge in that ugly kind of old-fashioned leftism that is based on what the working classes want. Who gives a damn what the working classes want? What’s important is what we want them to want. This isn’t the 1990s, after all. All that nonsense about globalization, and supranational entities like the WTO, and the World Bank, not to mention “American jobs” … only fascists talk like that these days!

    But, seriously … if you’ve made it this far in my essay, and you consider yourself a leftist of some sort, you’re probably extremely frustrated with what passes for the Left these days, and with how the working classes are flocking to the Right, both in the United States and all over the world. If I’ve got that right, you might want to read this essay by Diana Johnstone (which we lefties are technically not allowed to read, because it’s posted in The Unz Review, where a lot of “alt-Right” pieces are also posted … and you don’t want to get any of that stuff on you!)

    What she is writing about is the ongoing “populist” insurgency against globalized capitalism, which is what I’ve also been writing about for the better part of the last two years. This is the historical moment we are experiencing, a clumsy, sloppy, partly fascistic, partly non-fascistic democratic uprising against the continuing spread of global capitalism, the erosion of what is left of national sovereignty, and … yes, people’s cultures and values.

    The international working classes understand this. The neo-nationalist Right understands this. The majority of the Left does not understand this, and is refusing to admit that it’s happening, and so is standing around on the sidelines calling everybody “racists” and “fascists” while the global capitalist ruling classes and the neo-nationalists sort things out.

    Which is exactly what the ruling classes want, and what the official Putin-Nazi narrative was designed to achieve from the very beginning. The “Overton Window” (i.e., the range of ideas tolerated in public discourse) works best when divided into two clean halves. During the so-called “War on Terror,” it was Democracy versus the Islamic Terrorists. Now, it’s Democracy versus the Putin-Nazis. Both of which narratives are fairy tales, of course, the reality, as ever, being rather more messy.

    If what is left of the Left expects to play any meaningful part in our historical moment (other than sanctimoniously cheerleading for the global capitalist ruling classes), it is going to need to get its hand a littler dirtier, mingle a bit more with all those working class “populists,” talk to them, and, I don’t know, maybe even listen to them.

    Or maybe I’m completely out of my mind…

    I mean, actually listening to the working classes? Some of them are sure to say racist things, and anti-Semitic and transphobic things, which we cannot ignore for even one second, or rationally discuss and disagree with, because that would mean giving their racism a platform. Yeah, screw it, I don’t know what I was thinking … forget all that stuff I just made you read. Down with the fascist working classes!

  • Libya Urges United Nations To Take "Concrete Action" To Halt Chaos In Tripoli

    More than seven years after NATO launched a regime change war in Libya on the side of anti-Gaddafi rebels, the West is again being asked to intervene as the country further descends into civil war

    Except this time it’s the internationally recognized government since installed in Tripoli that is at war with itself, and the death toll from inter-factional fighting since August has now reached over 100 and is growing as street battles in Tripoli suburbs rage, causing leaders to urge the United Nations to act. 

    Tripoli street scene in early September. Via Libya Observer 

    The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) issued a statement late Friday calling on the U.N. to take “concrete and effective” action to protect civilians and halt fighting near the capital. The GNA urged the UN mission to “present the Security Council with the reality of the bloody events in Libya so that it can… protect the lives and property of civilians”.

    On Friday alone clashes in Tripoli left 15 dead and dozens more wounded, according to official health ministry statements

    Since fresh fighting again erupted in Tripoli on August 26 (there’s been internecine battles in the capital for years), whole sections of the city have been shut down, especially the southern suburbs where initial street battles began, which has witnessed  the shelling of residential areas, street-to-street fighting, and tanks in the streets all reminiscent of the 2011 war which eventually led to a NATO air campaign and forcible removal and assassination of Libya’s longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi.

    According to international reports, some of the feuding militias have come mostly from Libya’s third city Misrata and the town of Tarhouna southeast of the capital; however, the early weeks of fighting were driven mostly by rival factions within the GNA itself

    On Friday UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres issued a statement through his spokesman, saying he is “alarmed by the increasing number of violations of the ceasefire agreement.” Guterres called on the warring militias to respect a prior truce and to “refrain from any actions that would increase the suffering of the civilian population”. 

    He said groups responsible for “the violation of international humanitarian law and international human rights law must be held responsible,” according to the statement. 

    Previously the UN Support Mission in Libya voiced concerns over “the use of indiscriminate fire and heavy weapons in densely populated residential areas.”

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    Since the NATO-backed overthrow of Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has remained split between rival parliaments and governments in the east and west, with militias and tribes lining up behind each, resulting in fierce periodic clashes

    In March 2011 the UN passed Resolution 1973 which authorized the imposition of a No Fly Zone over Libya, ostensibly to protect civilians from pro-Gaddafi forces. The US, UK, France, and other NATO and Gulf allies bombed the country while claiming to act in the name of democracy and human rights. 

    Though the recently “liberated” Libya has remained conflict-prone after NATO and US forces promised an “Arab Spring”-style “blossoming of democracy” — things have clearly only gone from worse to worse as the capital now again slides toward full blown civil war. Welcome to the “new” Libya.

  • The "Resistance" Supports Trump's 'Evil Agendas' While Attacking Fake Nonsense

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    new article from the Wall Street Journal reports that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lied to congress about the measures Saudi Arabia is taking to minimize the civilian casualties in its catastrophic war on Yemen, and that he did so in order to secure two billion dollars for war profiteers.

    This is about as depraved as anything you could possibly imagine. US-made bombs have been conclusively tied to civilian deaths in a war which has caused the single worst humanitarian crisis on earth, a crisis which sees scores of Yemeni children dying every single day and has placed five million children at risk of death by starvation in a nation where families are now eating leaves to survive. CIA veteran Bruce Riedel once said that “if the United States of America and the United Kingdom tonight told King Salman that this war has to end, it would end tomorrow, because the Royal Saudi Airforce cannot operate without American and British support.” Nobody other than war plutocrats benefits from the US assisting Saudi Arabia in its monstrous crimes against humanity, and yet Pompeo chose to override his own expert advisors on the matter for fear of hurting the income of those very war plutocrats.

    If the so-called “Resistance” to Trump was ever actually interested in opposing this administration in any meaningful way, this would be the top trending news story in America for days, like how “bombshell” revelations pertaining to the made-up Russiagate narrative trend for days. Spoiler alert: it isn’t, and it won’t be.

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    It would be so very, very easy for Democratic party leaders and Democrat-aligned media to hurt this administration at the highest level and cause irreparable political damage based on this story. All they’d have to do is give it the same blanket coverage they’ve given the stories about Michael Flynn, George Papadopoulos and Paul Manafort which end up leading nowhere remotely near impeachment or proof of collusion with the Russian government. The footage of the starving children is right there, ready to be aired to pluck at the heart strings of rank-and-file Americans day after day until Republicans have lost all hope of victory in the midterms and in 2020; all they’d have to do is use it. But they don’t. And they won’t.

    The US Senate has just passed Trump’s mammoth military spending increase by a landslide 92–8 vote. The eight senators who voted “nay”? Seven Republicans, and Independent Bernie Sanders. Every single Democrat supported the most bloated war budget since the height of the Iraq war. Rather than doing everything they can to weaken the potential damage that can be done by a president they’ve been assuring us is a dangerous hybrid of equal parts Benedict Arnold and Adolf Hitler, they’ve been actively increasing his power as Commander-in-Chief of the most powerful military force the world has ever seen.

    The reason for this is very simple: President Trump’s ostensible political opposition does not oppose President Trump. They’re on the same team, wearing different uniforms. This is the reason they attack him on Russian collusion accusations which the brighter bulbs among them know full well will never be proven and have no basis in reality. They don’t stand up to Trump because, as Julian Assange once said, they are Trump.

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    In John Steinbeck’s The Pearl, there are jewelry buyers set up around a fishing community which are all owned by the same plutocrat, but they all pretend to be in competition with one another. When the story’s protagonist discovers an enormous and valuable pearl and goes to sell it, they all gather round and individually bid far less than it is worth in order to trick him into giving it away for almost nothing. US politics is pretty much the same; two mainstream parties owned by the same political class, engaged in a staged bidding war for votes to give the illusion of competition.

    In reality, the US political system is like the unplugged video game remote that kids give their baby brother so he stops whining that he wants a turn to play. No matter who they vote for they get an Orwellian warmongering government which exists solely to advance the agendas of a plutocratic class which has no loyalties to any nation; the only difference is sometimes that government is pretending to care about women and minorities and sometimes it’s pretending to care about white men. In reality, all the jewelers work for the same plutocrat, and that video game remote won’t impact the outcome of the game no matter how many buttons you push.

    The only way to effect real change is to stop playing along with the rigged system and start waking people up to the lies. As long as Americans believe that the mass media are telling them the truth about their country and their partisan votes are going somewhere useful, the populace whose numbers should give it immense influence is nullified and sedated into a passive ride toward war, ecocide and oppression. If enough of us keep throwing sand in the gears of the lie factory, we can wake the masses up from the oligarchic lullaby they’re being sung. And then maybe we’ll be big enough to have a shot at grabbing one of the real video game controllers.

    *  *  *

    Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for my website, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My articles are entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics on Twitter, checking out mypodcast, throwing some money into my hat on Patreon or Paypal, buying my new book Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone, or my previous book Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers.

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Today’s News 22nd September 2018

  • Kavanaugh Accuser Misses 10PM Deadline, Grassley Grants Demand For One More Day

    Update: Grassley has granted Ford an additional day to decide on next week’s testimony. 

    In several late Friday tweets, Grassley wrote:

    “Five times now we hv granted extension for Dr Ford to decide if she wants to proceed w her desire stated one wk ago that she wants to tell senate her story  Dr Ford if u changed ur mind say so so we can move on I want to hear ur testimony. Come to us or we to u…

    … 

    Judge Kavanaugh I just granted another extension to Dr Ford to decide if she wants to proceed w the statement she made last week to testify to the senate She shld decide so we can move on I want to hear her. I hope u understand. It’s not my normal approach to b indecisive

    With all the extensions we give Dr Ford to decide if she still wants to testify to the Senate I feel like I’m playing 2nd trombone in the judiciary orchestra and Schumer is the conductor

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    After several intense days of negotiations between Congressional GOP and Christine Blasey Ford’s legal team this week, the woman who at the 11th hour accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault over 35 years ago missed a 10PM deadline set by Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley. Instead, she has demanded an additional day to make up her mind after her attorney, Debra Katz, called the 10:00 p.m. deadline “arbitrary.” 

    Katz made the demand at the end of a strongly worded letter accusing the Judiciary committee of “aggressive and artificial deadlines” which caused “unwarranted anxiety and stress on Dr. Ford.” 

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    The ball is now firmly in Grassley’s court in what is sure to be a nonstop weekend of rigorous debate over whether the Judiciary Committee Chairman will accede to Ford’s latest demand.  

    Earlier in the day, Grassley drew a hard line in the sand, allowing Ford’s to decide by 10 p.m. whether or not she would appear for testimony next Wednesday, while Ford’s team shot back a list of demands, including a Thursday testimony – and that the Committee of “11 old white men” question her instead of outside legal counsel. 

    Ford’s allies are doing their best to demonize Grassley and his committee of “11 old white men” for browbeating an alleged sexual assault victim into a rushed decision.

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    That said, many on the right have pointed out that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) waited over 6 weeks to report Ford’s allegation to the FBI or any other authorities for investigation. Having employed several former FBI on her staff along with an alleged Chinese spy, Feinstein would have likely known of a number of flagpoles to fly Ford’s accusation up to begin the investigative process. 

    Congressional GOP agreed to skip the outside lawyer. 

    Perhaps another factor bolstering GOP steadfastness on the issue is the Friday revalation that Ford’s current political adviser – former Obama and Clinton White House official Ricky Seidman, had allegedly been working on Ford’s situation since July – outlining a plan on a newly released audio tape to use the allegation as political fodder to derail Kavanaugh’s confirmation, and if unsuccessful, at least politically harm Republicans during midterms

    One might think that Ford, an ostensibly intelligent PhD, would have considered the likelihood of her eventual Congressional testimony the moment she decided to involve California legislators in her claims prior to the 11th hour of Kavanaugh’s confirmation. 

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    Was Ford’s account leaked?

    Meanwhile, per the Washington Post, Ford now claims that Ed Whelan – a former Scalia clerk who posited a controversial theory that Ford may have mistaken Kavanaugh for a high school Doppelgänger, was creeping her Linkedin page before her accusation became public knowledge – suggesting that someone leaked her name to him. The White House denied the suggestion on Friday, stating that “neither Kavanaugh nor anyone in the White House gave Ford’s name to Whelan before it was disclosed by the Post.” 

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    And here we are, buckle up for a long weekend… 

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  • A Path To War? China Cancels US Trade Talks As 'Skirmish' Escalates

    Following a surge in Chinese, European, and much of the US equity markets this week amid hopes that the so-called ‘trade skirmish’ was less ‘war-like’ than expected, China just dropped an early Saturday morning (local time) tape bomb that is sure to resurrect ‘trade war’ talk.

    After President Trump slapped a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese goods, targeting 10 percent duties on $200 billion of goods; the two camps were scheduled to meet in order to dial back tensions. As we noted earlier in the week, China had ‘downgraded’ the team with a mid-level delegation from China due to travel to the U.S. capital to pave the way for Vice Premier Liu’s visit.

    That was what sparked hope that this was just a trade skirmish (as Jamie Dimon attempted to play down), sending stocks soaring all week.

    However, that is all over now.

    The Journal  just reported on Friday that, according to sources, China has rescinded the proposals to send two delegations to Washington.

    Chinese officials have said such pressure tactics wouldn’t induce them to cooperate.

    By declining to participate in the talks, the people said, Beijing is following up on its pledge to avoid negotiating under threat.

    “Everything the U.S. does hasn’t given any impression of sincerity and goodwill,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a press briefing Friday.

    “We hope that the U.S. side will take measures to correct its mistakes.”

    *  *  *

    The timing of this news, after the exuberant equity week, is also noteworthy as it follows Ray Dalio’s, founder of Bridgewater, warnings that the current trade tensions mirror those of the 1930s:

    “I think that the 1935-40 period is most analogous to the current period and that it is worth reflecting on what happened then when thinking about US-Chinese relations now. 

    To be clear, I’m not saying that we are on a path to a shooting war, but I am saying that we have to watch what path we are on, given these cause-effect relationships that history has taught us and that are described in the template. This excerpt describes how the economic and political conditions of the late 1930s evolved into the wars that followed. “

    Read more here…

    We have discussed this case-effect relation before…

    Get ready for some Sunday night futures fun and games…

  • Hold The Front Page: The Reporters Are Missing And Journalism Is Dead

    Authored by John Pilger via ConsortiumNews.com,

    So much of mainstream journalism has descended to the level of a cult-like formula of bias, hearsay and omission. Subjectivism is all; slogans and outrage are proof enough. What matters is ‘perception’…

    The death of Robert Parry earlier this year felt like a farewell to the age of the reporter. Parry was “a trailblazer for independent journalism”, wrote Seymour Hersh, with whom he shared much in common.

    Hersh revealed the My Lai massacre in Vietnam and the secret bombing of Cambodia, Parry exposed Iran-Contra, a drugs and gun-running conspiracy that led to the White House. In 2016, they separately produced compelling evidence that the Assad government in Syria had not used chemical weapons. They were not forgiven.

    Driven from the “mainstream”, Hersh must publish his work outside the United States. Parry set up his own independent news website Consortium News, where, in a final piece following a stroke, he referred to journalism’s veneration of “approved opinions” while “unapproved evidence is brushed aside or disparaged regardless of its quality.”

    Although journalism was always a loose extension of establishment power, something has changed in recent years. Dissent tolerated when I joined a national newspaper in Britain in the 1960s has regressed to a metaphoric underground as liberal capitalism moves towards a form of corporate dictatorship.

    This is a seismic shift, with journalists policing the new “groupthink”, as Parry called it, dispensing its myths and distractions, pursuing its enemies.

    Witness the witch-hunts against refugees and immigrants, the willful abandonment by the “MeToo” zealots of our oldest freedom, presumption of innocence, the anti-Russia racism and anti-Brexit hysteria, the growing anti-China campaign and the suppression of a warning of world war.

    With many if not most independent journalists barred or ejected from the “mainstream”, a corner of the Internet has become a vital source of disclosure and evidence-based analysis: true journalism sites such as wikileaks.org, consortiumnews.com, wsws.org, truthdig.com, globalresearch.org, counterpunch.org and informationclearinghouse.com are required reading for those trying to make sense of a world in which science and technology advance wondrously while political and economic life in the fearful “democracies” regress behind a media facade of narcissistic spectacle.

    Propaganda Blitz

    In Britain, just one website offers consistently independent media criticism. This is the remarkable Media Lens — remarkable partly because its founders and editors as well as its only writers, David Edwards and David Cromwell, since 2001 have concentrated their gaze not on the usual suspects, the Tory press, but the paragons of reputable liberal journalism: the BBC, The Guardian, Channel 4 News.

    Cromwell and Edwards (The Ghandi Foundation)

    Their method is simple. Meticulous in their research, they are respectful and polite when they ask why a journalist why he or she produced such a one-sided report, or failed to disclose essential facts or promoted discredited myths.

    The replies they receive are often defensive, at times abusive; some are hysterical, as if they have pushed back a screen on a protected species.

    I would say Media Lens has shattered a silence about corporate journalism. Like Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman in Manufacturing Consent, they represent a Fifth Estate that deconstructs and demystifies the media’s power.

    What is especially interesting about them is that neither is a journalist. David Edwards is a former teacher, David Cromwell is an oceanographer. Yet, their understanding of the morality of journalism — a term rarely used; let’s call it true objectivity — is a bracing quality of their online Media Lens dispatches.

    I think their work is heroic and I would place a copy of their just published book, Propaganda Blitz, in every journalism school that services the corporate system, as they all do.

    Take the chapter, Dismantling the National Health Service, in which Edwards and Cromwell describe the critical part played by journalists in the crisis facing Britain’s pioneering health service.

    The NHS crisis is the product of a political and media construct known as “austerity”, with its deceitful, weasel language of “efficiency savings”  (the BBC term for slashing public expenditure) and “hard choices” (the willful destruction of the premises of civilized life in modern Britain).

    “Austerity” is an invention. Britain is a rich country with a debt owed by its crooked banks, not its people. The resources that would comfortably fund the National Health Service have been stolen in broad daylight by the few allowed to avoid and evade billions in taxes.

    Using a vocabulary of corporate euphemisms, the publicly-funded Health Service is being deliberately run down by free market fanatics, to justify its selling-off. The Labour Party of Jeremy Corbyn may appear to oppose this, but is it? The answer is very likely no. Little of any of this is alluded to in the media, let alone explained.

    Edwards and Cromwell have dissected the 2012 Health and Social Care Act, whose innocuous title belies its dire consequences. Unknown to most of the population, the Act ends the legal obligation of British governments to provide universal free health care: the bedrock on which the NHS was set up following the Second World War. Private companies can now insinuate themselves into the NHS, piece by piece.

    Where, asks Edwards and Cromwell, was the BBC while this momentous Bill was making its way through Parliament? With a statutory commitment to “providing a breadth of view” and to properly inform the public of “matters of public policy,” the BBC never spelt out the threat posed to one of the nation’s most cherished institutions. A BBC headline said: “Bill which gives power to GPs passes.” This was pure state propaganda.

    Media and Iraq Invasion

    Blair: Lawless (Office of Tony Blair)

    There is a striking similarity with the BBC’s coverage of Prime Minister Tony Blair’s lawless invasion of Iraq in 2003, which left a million dead and many more dispossessed. A study by the University of Wales, Cardiff, found that the BBC reflected the government line “overwhelmingly” while relegating reports of civilian suffering. A Media Tenor study placed the BBC at the bottom of a league of western broadcasters in the time they gave to opponents of the invasion. The corporation’s much-vaunted “principle” of impartiality was never a consideration.

    One of the most telling chapters in Propaganda Blitzdescribes the smear campaigns mounted by journalists against dissenters, political mavericks and whistleblowers.

    The Guardian’s campaign against the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is the most disturbing. Assange, whose epic WikiLeaks disclosures brought fame, journalism prizes and largesse to The Guardian, was abandoned when he was no longer useful. He was then subjected to a vituperative – and cowardly — onslaught of a kind I have rarely known.

    With not a penny going to WikiLeaks, a hyped Guardian book led to a lucrative Hollywood movie deal. The book’s authors, Luke Harding and David Leigh, gratuitously described Assange as a “damaged personality” and “callous.” They also disclosed the secret password he had given the paper in confidence, which was designed to protect a digital file containing the U.S. embassy cables.

    With Assange now trapped in the Ecuadorean embassy, Harding, standing among the police outside, gloated on his blog that “Scotland Yard may get the last laugh.”

    The Guardian columnist Suzanne Moore wrote, “I bet Assange is stuffing himself full of flattened guinea pigs. He really is the most massive turd.”

    Moore, who describes herself as a feminist, later complained that, after attacking Assange, she had suffered “vile abuse.” Edwards and Cromwell wrote to her: “That’s a real shame, sorry to hear that. But how would you describe calling someone ‘the most massive turd’? Vile abuse?”

    Moore replied that no, she would not, adding, “I would advise you to stop being so bloody patronizing.” Her former Guardian colleague James Ball wrote, “It’s difficult to imagine what Ecuador’s London embassy smells like more than five and a half years after Julian Assange moved in.”

    Such slow-witted viciousness appeared in a newspaper described by its editor, Katharine Viner, as “thoughtful and progressive.” What is the root of this vindictiveness?  Is it jealousy, a perverse recognition that Assange has achieved more journalistic firsts than his snipers can claim in a lifetime? Is it that he refuses to be “one of us” and shames those who have long sold out the independence of journalism?

    Journalism students should study this to understand that the source of “fake news” is not only trollism, or the likes of Fox News, or Donald Trump, but a journalism self-anointed with a false respectability: a liberal journalism that claims to challenge corrupt state power but, in reality, courts and protects it, and colludes with it. The amorality of the years of Tony Blair, whom The Guardian has failed to rehabilitate, is its echo.

    “[It is] an age in which people yearn for new ideas and fresh alternatives,” wrote Katharine Viner. Her political writer Jonathan Freedland dismissed the yearning of young people who supported the modest policies of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn as “a form of narcissism.”

    “How did this man ….,” brayed the Guardian‘s Zoe Williams, “get on the ballot in the first place?”  A choir of the paper’s precocious windbags joined in, thereafter queuing to fall on their blunt swords when Corbyn came close to winning the 2017 general election in spite of the media.

    Complex stories are reported to a cult-like formula of bias, hearsay and omission: Brexit, Venezuela, Russia, Syria. On Syria, only the investigations of a group of independent journalists have countered this, revealing the network of Anglo-American backing of jihadists in Syria, including those related to ISIS.

    Leni Riefenstahl (r.) (Keystone-France/Gamma-Keystone via Getty Images)

    Supported by a “psyops” campaign funded by the British Foreign Office and the U.S. Agency for International Development, the aim is to hoodwink the Western public and speed the overthrow of the government in Damascus, regardless of the medieval alternative and the risk of war with Russia.

    The Syria Campaign, set up by a New York PR agency called Purpose, funds a group known as the White Helmets, who claim falsely to be “Syria Civil Defense” and are seen uncritically on TV news and social media, apparently rescuing the victims of bombing, which they film and edit themselves, though viewers are unlikely to be told this. George Clooney is a fan.

    The White Helmets are appendages to the jihadists with whom they share addresses. Their media-smart uniforms and equipment are supplied by their Western paymasters. That their exploits are not questioned by major news organizations is an indication of how deep the influence of state-backed PR now runs in the media. As Robert Fisk noted recently, no “mainstream” reporter reports Syria.

    In what is known as a hatchet job, a Guardian reporter based in San Francisco, Olivia Solon, who has never visited Syria, was allowed to smear the substantiated investigative work of journalists Vanessa Beeley and Eva Bartlett on the White Helmets as “propagated online by a network of anti-imperialist activists, conspiracy theorists and trolls with the support of the Russian government.”

    This abuse was published without permitting a single correction, let alone a right-of-reply. The Guardian Comment page was blocked, as Edwards and Cromwell document.  I saw the list of questions Solon sent to Beeley, which reads like a McCarthyite charge sheet — “Have you ever been invited to North Korea?”

    So much of the mainstream has descended to this level. Subjectivism is all; slogans and outrage are proof enough. What matters is the “perception.”

    When he was U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus declared what he called “a war of perception… conducted continuously using the news media.” What really mattered was not the facts but the way the story played in the United States. The undeclared enemy was, as always, an informed and critical public at home.

    Nothing has changed. In the 1970s, I met Leni Riefenstahl, Hitler’s film-maker, whose propaganda mesmerized the German public.

    She told me the “messages” of her films were dependent not on “orders from above”, but on the “submissive void” of an uninformed public.

    “Did that include the liberal, educated bourgeoisie?” I asked.

    “Everyone,” she said. “Propaganda always wins, if you allow it.”

    Propaganda Blitz by David Edwards and David Cromwell is published by Pluto Press.

  • Apple's Mysterious New 'Trust Score' For iPhone Users Leaves Many Unanswered Questions

    Like Facebook (and the Chinese Communist Party) before it, Apple is now assigning users of its products a “trust” score that is based on users’ call and email habits, the Sun reports. The new ratings were added as part of the latest iOS 12 update, as VentureBeat explains.

    Apple’s promise of transparency regarding user data means that any new privacy policy update might reveal that it’s doing something new and weird with your data.

    […]

    Alongside yesterday’s releases of iOS 12, tvOS 12, and watchOS 5, Apple quietly updated some of its iTunes Store terms and privacy disclosures, including one standout provision: It’s now using an abstracted summary of your phone calls or emails as an anti-fraud measure.

    The provision appears in the iTunes store and privacy windows of iOS and tvOS devices. An Apple spokesperson clarified that the score is meant to stop unauthorized iTunes purchases, but as VentureBeat explains, the trust score is unusual for several reasons – not least of which being that users can’t make phone calls or send emails on Apple TVs. Indeed, the only thing Apple customers can say for sure is that the company’s disclosure leaves many unanswered questions.

    Trust

    Aside from the obvious inconsistencies surrounding the Apple TV, it’s also unclear how recording and tracking the number of calls or emails made from an iPhone, iPad, or iPod touch will help Apple verify a user’s identity. One would think, as Venturebeat points out, that Apple could simply rely on serial numbers or SIM cards. Perhaps the company feels that verifying the device isn’t enough, and that it needs to go further to make sure the person using the device is the same. Still, exactly how the company will go about accomplishing this is suspiciously unclear.

    And what if a user wants to review their trust score? Well, that’s too bad, because Apple will refuse to disclose it, even if federal investigators demand it.

    Facebook’s trust score is intended to separate “credible” reports of flagged posts from the rest. In Apple’s case, the trust score is much more nebulous, which begs the question: Is this just a ruse to allow Apple to cull more valuable user data that it can then monetize without triggering a public backlash? Or is there something more nefarious at play?

     

  • Median Household Wealth In America Is Going Nowhere

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    Today’s headline at The Wall Street Journal looks wonderful: “U.S. Household Net Worth Neared $107 Trillion in Second Quarter.” The journal is reporting on a new report from the Federal Reserve.

    Unfortunately, the fact that the aggregate national net worth is up doesn’t tell us much about how Americans are faring right now.

    The “$107 trillion” number is just one big number of all assets added up minus debts. Marketwatch sums it up:

    It’s important to stress that the Fed report doesn’t represent the experience for the typical household — this is a report about the aggregate. A separate Fed survey from 2016 showed a little more than half of all families owned stocks, while about two-thirds of households owned homes.

    For the sizable portion of Americans who don’t own homes or a substantial amount of stocks, the report only illustrates, yet again, that asset price inflation mostly benefits people who already own a sizable amount of assets. If you’re a young person looking to build a portfolio — or a prospective first-time home buyer, you’re facing some very high prices right now.

    Moreover, not even every homeowner benefits, since the data suggests that homeowners in stylish housing markets are the primary beneficiaries of home price inflation. Americans who own property in less fashionable cities in flyover country aren’t seeing nearly as much growth in their net worth.

    This is familiar territory for those who have been monitoring the inflationary practices of central banks over the past decade. Asset price inflation is great for those who already own plenty of assets. Everyone else isn’t quite so lucky. In other words, the rich are getting richer faster. The non-rich are probably just holding steady.

    How About All Households?

    It looks like those with plenty of stocks and real estate are doing well. On the other hand, median household net worth in the United States doesn’t look so good.

    According to a 2017 report by Edward Wolff, median net worth in the United States, at least as late as 2016, was nowhere near returning to where it had been before the last financial crisis. In fact, in 2016, median net worth was about where it had been in 1983, more than three decades ago:

    In this report, Wolff was updating previous research from 2014 which showed that median wealth in 2013 was still at 1969 levels:

    Median wealth has increased significantly from 2013 to 2016, but as of 2016 it remained down 33 percent from where it was in 2007.

    It’s possible that in 2018, a full decade after the financial crisis, net wealth has recovered to its previous peak. We don’t know. But, even if median wealth finally recovers around 2018, what will happen to median wealth in the next recession if stock prices and home prices decline?

    As Wolff shows in his report, the majority of wealth held by Americans (56 percent) is in the form of a principal residence, financial securities, and pension funds – which are themselves largely composed of financial securities.

    Will it also take a decade to recover from the next recession? Let’s hope not. But if the past decade is any indicator, we could be looking at 20 years of sideways movement in median wealth if something doesn’t change. Sure, overall aggregate wealth will continue to increase as the wealthy continue to see ongoing increases in the prices of their assets. Central-bank-fueled asset-price inflation will contribute to this.

    Moreover, inflationary monetary policy directly benefits the politically well-connected at the expense of others, as recently explained by Thorsten Polleit:

    There is an additional severe problem with central banks’ fiat money: It affects income and wealth distribution, and it does so in a non-merit-based, anti-free market way. To understand this, we have to consider that if and when the quantity of money increases in an economy, the prices of different goods will be affected at different points in time and to a different degree. In other words: A rise in the quantity of money changes — and necessarily so — peoples’ relative income and wealth position.

    The early receivers of the new money will be the beneficiaries, for they can purchase goods at still unchanged prices with their fresh money. As the new money is passed from hand to hand, prices are rising. The late receivers are put at a disadvantage: They can purchase only goods at elevated prices with their new money. In other words: The early receivers of the new money get rich(er), the late receivers get poor(er). Needless to say, those who do not receive any of the new money will be worst off.

    If we want to see better growth in wealth for ordinary people, it’s clear that the “stimulus” strategies of the past decade aren’t cutting it.

    In fact, according to banking-industry researcher Karen Petrou, “Post-crisis [i.e., post-2008] monetary and regulatory policy had an unintended but nonetheless dramatic impact on the income and wealth divides.” In a recent interview with Petrou at Bloomberg, Petrou explains how new banking regulations have driven banks toward catering to the wealthy:

    [C]apital requirements imposed after the banking crisis make it a lot more expensive for banks to do a startup small-business loan than go into wealth management. Startup loans are riskier than wealth management, of course, but the capital costs have become prohibitive, and banks don’t lose money on purpose. … it’s basically impossible for banks to make mortgage loans to anyone but wealthy customers.

    This wouldn’t be the first time that government regulations benefit a small number of wealthy at the expense of everyone else. But combine this with inflationary monetary policy and we get at least a few insights into why median wealth in the United States is so sluggish.

  • Religious Texans Beat Back "Robot Brothel" Amid Fears It Will Become Rapist Training Ground 

    Texas sex doll enthusiasts may be in for a blow after a religious group mounted a vigorous petition to block a Toronto-based “robot brothel” from setting up shop in Houston, reports ABC 13

    Our biggest concern is that this sex brothel with robots is gonna train men to become rapists,” said Micah Gamboah with the religious anti sex-trafficking group, Elijah Rising. “What’s next? Is it child robots? Where’s the line? Where is the boundary?

    It seems like the law is on the brothel’s side, however, after a stiff penal regulation against such businesses was ruled unconstitutional a decade ago. 

    “As disgusting as some people may find it, I think under the law, it’s legal,” said attorney Steve Shellist, adding “As we sit here today those types of products being sold, used or rented is legal.” 

    Toronto’s Kinkys Dolls is expanding their offerings of synthetic companions which are “ready for you in every position you would choose, they lubed warm [sic] and ready to play.” 

    Their dolls – at least in Canada, go for $80 for 30 minutes of pure silicone ecstasy – though they do offer an outcall service for $250 an hour which we imagine includes some guy who waits in a van for you to “do your thing.” 

    Each “doll” has a name, a look and price tag in the thousands of dollars, if you want to buy one. But customers can also “rent before they buy,” getting a room and a doll of their choice where they can “play and have fun” …”fulfilling fantasies without limitations,” according to the website.

    According to their website: 

    1. You come to our location, we located in a private location ,
    we created a condo space inside a warehouse, where you will find everything you need.
     
    2. You Choose the doll that you’ll like out of our selection (better to chose when you come).
     
    3. You get your room and the doll you like. 
     
    4. Pay and have fun! 

    Gamboa’s group isn’t going to take this lying down, insisting: “We can’t allow these kind of public masturbation businesses to operate in our city.” 

    Perhaps all Elijah Rising needs to do is erect posters showcasing Italy’s closed-down sex doll brothel, which lasted just 9 short days before authorities raided it for breaking Italian laws and concerns that the dolls were improperly cleaned between uses

  • This Man's Incredible Story Proves Why Due Process Matters In The Kavanaugh Case

    Submitted by James Miller of The Political Insider

    Somewhere between the creation of the Magna Carta and now, leftists have forgotten why due process matters; and in some cases, such as that of Judge Brett Kavanaugh, they choose to outright ignore the judicial and civil rights put in place by the U.S. Constitution. 

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    In this age of social media justice mobs, the accused are often convicted in the court of public opinion long before any substantial evidence emerges to warrant an investigation or trial. This is certainly true for Kavanaugh. His accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, cannot recall the date of the alleged assault and has no supporting witnesses, yet law professors are ready to ruin his entire life and career. Not because they genuinely believe he’s guilty, but because he’s a pro-life Trump nominee for the Supreme Court.

    It goes without saying: to “sink Kavanaugh even if” Ford’s allegation is untrue is unethical, unconstitutional, and undemocratic. He has a right to due process, and before liberals sharpen their pitchforks any further they would do well to remember what happened to Brian Banks.

    In the summer of 2002, Banks was a highly recruited 16-year-old linebacker at Polytechnic High School in California with plans to play football on a full scholarship to the University of Southern California. However, those plans were destroyed when Banks’s classmate, Wanetta Gibson, claimed that Banks had dragged her into a stairway at their high school and raped her.

    Gibson’s claim was false, but it was Banks’s word against hers. Banks had two options: go to trial and risk spending 41 years-to-life in prison, or take a plea deal that included five years in prison, five years probation, and registering as a sex offender. Banks accepted the plea deal under the counsel of his lawyer, who told him that he stood no chance at trial because the all-white jury would “automatically assume” he was guilty because he was a “big, black teenager.”

    Gibson and her mother subsequently sued the Long Beach Unified School District and won a $1.5 million settlement. It wasn’t until nearly a decade later, long after Banks’s promising football career had already been tanked, that Gibson admitted she’d fabricated the entire story.

    Following Gibson’s confession, Banks was exonerated with the help of the California Innocence Project. Hopeful to get his life back on track, he played for Las Vegas Locomotives of the now-defunct United Football League in 2012, and signed with the Atlanta Falcons in 2013. But while Banks finally received justice, he will never get back the years or the prospective pro football career that Gibson selfishly stole from him.

    Banks’s story is timely, and it serves as a powerful warning to anyone too eager to condemn those accused of sexual assault. In fact, a film about Banks’s ordeal, Brian Banks, is set to premiere at the Los Angeles Film Festival next week.

    Perhaps all the #MeToo Hollywood elites and their liberal friends should attend the screening – and keep Kavanaugh in their minds as they watch.

  • Visualizing Over 50 Years Of US Government Discretionary Spending In 60 Seconds

    Every year, the U.S. government spends trillions of dollars on a wide range of budgetary items.

    While the largest categories of spending, such as entitlement programs or debt interest, do not offer lawmakers a lot of flexibility, as Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, the government does get to decide how discretionary spending – about $1.3 trillion in FY2019 – gets put to use.

    DISCRETIONARY SPENDING OVER TIME

    Today’s animation from data scientist Will Geary shows the evolution of U.S. discretionary spending from 1963 until today:

    The U.S. budget is generally divided into three main categories:

    Discretionary Spending: This category, depicted in the animation, is the optional part of the budgetary equation – it’s the aspect that most people talk about, as the allocation of funding towards different things like defense, education, and transportation can be changed by lawmakers.

    Mandatory Spending: Also known as entitlement spending, this category includes funding for programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. It’s called mandatory spending because the government legally is committed to fulfilling these obligations, and it exists outside of the normal budget appropriations process.

    Net Interest: This category is for payments on the national debt, also something that is necessary unless the country is willing to default on these obligations.

    DISCRETIONARY SPENDING TODAY

    As the animation shows, after adjusting for inflation (using 2009 dollars), discretionary spending has doubled since 1963.

    In 1963, which was essentially the height of the Cold War, the U.S. was spending 73% on the military to make up the vast majority of the $547 billion (2009 dollars) in discretionary spending.

    Meanwhile, in Fiscal Year 2019, the government has allocated $1.3 trillion (today’s dollars) to the budget:

    Things haven’t changed much since 1963 in that defense still comprises the majority of spending – in fact, the only recent time periods where U.S. defense spending fell below 50% were roughly between 1977-1981 and 1999-2004.

    American spending on defense dwarfs all other countries, but there are other categories that make up decent chunks of the discretionary budget as well.

    While they seem small on the above chart, transportation (7%), education (7%), and veteran benefits (6%) are all actually categories that receive over $70 billion of annual funding – still a significant piece of change.

  • Wasting The Lehman Crisis: What Was Not Saved Was The Economy

    Authored by Michael Hudson via Counterpunch.org,

    Today’s financial malaise for pension funds, state and local budgets and underemployment is largely a result of the 2008 bailout, not the crash. What was saved was not only the banks – or more to the point, as Sheila Bair pointed out, their bondholders – but the financial overhead that continues to burden today’s economy.

    Also saved was the idea that the economy needs to keep the financial sector solvent by an exponential growth of new debt – and, when that does not suffice, by government purchase of stocks and bonds to support the balance sheets of the wealthiest layer of society. The internal contradiction in this policy is that debt deflation has become so overbearing and dysfunctional that it prevents the economy from growing and carrying its debt burden.

    Trying to save the financial overgrowth of debt service by borrowing one’s way out of debt, or by monetary Quantitative Easing re-inflating real estate, stock and bond prices, enables the creditor One Percent to gain, not the indebted 99 Percent in the economy at large. Therefore, from the economy’s vantage point, instead of asking how the banks are to be saved “next time,” the question should be, how should we best let them go under – along with their stockholders, bondholders and uninsured depositors whose hubris imagined that their loans (other peoples’ debts) could go on rising without impoverishing society and preventing creditors from collecting in any event – except from government by gaining control over it.

    A basic principle should be the starting point of any macro analysis: The volume of interest-bearing debt tends to outstrip the economy’s ability to pay. This tendency is inherent in the “magic of compound interest.” The exponential growth of debt expands by its own purely mathematical momentum, independently of the economy’s ability to pay – and faster than the non-financial economy grows.

    The higher the debt/income ratio rises, the more interest, amortization payments and late fees are extracted from the economy. The resulting debt burden slows the economy, causing defaults. That is what happened in 2008, and is accelerating today as debt ratios are rising for corporate debt, state and local debt, and student debt.

    Neither legislators, academics nor the public at large recognize a corollary Second Principle following from the first: An over-indebted economy cannot be saved unless the banks fail. That means writing down the financial claims by the One to Ten Percent – in other words, the net debts owed by the 99 to 90 Percent. Wiping out bad debts involves writing down the “bad savings” that are the counterpart to these debts on the asset side of the balance sheet. Otherwise the economy will suffer debt deflation and austerity.

    “Recovery” since 2008 has been much slower than earlier recoveries because debt deflation is siphoning off more and more personal and corporate income. To make matters worse, the bailout’s policy of Quantitative Easing to re-inflate asset prices has reduced rates of return for pension funds, insurance companies and employee retirement savings. This means that more state and local government income must be diverted to meet retirement commitments.

    Something has to give, and it is not likely to be the savings of the donor class at the top of the economic pyramid. As a result, the economy at large is threatened with an exponentially expanding erosion of disposable income and net worth for most people and companies. Investment managers are warning of a financial meltdown, given today’s historically high price/earnings ratios for stocks and also for rental properties.

    What is not acknowledged is that such a crisis is a precondition for today’s economy to recover from the rising debt/income and debt/GDP ratios that are burdening the United States, Europe and other regions. At least the United States has been able to monetize its budget deficits and subsidize banks to carry its rising debt overhead with yet new debt. The Eurozone has banned budget deficits of over 3 percent of GDP, imposing austerity that leaves the only response to over-indebtedness to be Greek-style austerity: depopulation, shrinking living standards, wipeouts of retirement income and pensions, mortgage defaults, shortening lifespans, and mass selloffs of public infrastructure to foreign financial appropriators.

    None of this was spelled out in the September 15 weekend marking the tenth anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ failure and subsequent rescue of Wall Street. President Obama, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and their fellow financial lobbyists at the Federal Reserve and Justice Department are credited with saving “the economy,” as if their donor class on Wall Street was a good proxy for the economy at large. “Saving the economy from a meltdown” has become the euphemism for saving bondholders and other members of the One Percent from taking losses on their bad loans. The “rescue” is Orwellian doublespeak for expropriating over nine million indebted Americans from their homes, while leaving surviving homeowners saddled with enormous bubble-mortgage payments to the FIRE sector’s owners.

    What has been put in place is not a restoration of traditional status quo, but a reversal of over a century of central bank policy. Failed banks have not been taken into the public domain. They have been enriched far beyond their former levels. The perpetrators of the collapse have been rewarded, not penalized for lending more than could possibly be paid by NINJA borrowers and speculators whose mortgage applications were doctored by systemic fraud at Countrywide, Washington Mutual, Bank of America, Citigroup and their cohorts.

    The $4.3 trillion that could have been used to save debtors was given to the banks and Wall Street firms whose recklessness and outright fraud caused the crisis. The Federal Reserve “cash for trash” swaps with insolvent banks did not restore normalcy or the status quo ante. What occurred was a financial revolution by stealth, reversing the traditional responsibility of creditors to make prudent loans.

    Quantitative Easing saved creditors and the largest stockholders and bondholders by lowering the interest rates by enough to make it profitable for new loans to inflate asset prices on credit. This revived the value of collateral backing bank loans and bondholdings. “Saving” the economy in this way actually sacrificed it. That is why our “recovery” is only “on paper,” a result of calculating GDP to include bank earnings and hypothetical homeowner windfalls as rents are soaring.

    Among Democrats, the most extreme tunnel vision denying that debt is a problem comes from Paul Krugman:

    Writing that “The purely financial aspect of the crisis was basically over by the summer of 2009, ”he criticized what he called the “bizarre Beltway consensus that despite high unemployment and record low interest rates, debt, not jobs, was the real problem.”

    This misses the point that 2009 was the real beginning for most of the nine million homeowners being foreclosed on and evicted from their homes. Consumers found themselves with less income “freely disposable” after paying their monthly FIRE sector nut off the top of their paycheck – housing charges, credit card charges, medical insurance, student debt, FICA withholding and tax withholding. Krugman says that he would have solved the problem by more deficit spending to pump enough money into the economy to enable debtors to keep paying the banks their exponential growth of interest claims.

    We are still living in the destabilized, debt-ridden aftermath of such pro-bank advocacy. In the New Yorker, John Cassidy celebrates a book by Columbia professor Adam Tooze promoting the idea that “the economy” cannot exist without the credit (that is, debt) provided by the financial sector. True enough, but does it follow that rescuing the economy must involve rescuing Wall Street and enriching the banks at the expense of the rest of the economy. That conflation is an Orwellian rhetoric of deception that has been introduced to the discussion of how the economy was “rescued” by locking in today’s Great Debt Deflation.

    At the neoliberal/neocon Brookings Institution, Treasury secretaries Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner joined with the Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke to explain that the public simply didn’t understand how successful they all were in saving not only the banks, but non-bank financial institutions. Unlike Sheila Bair, they did not point out that behind these institutions were the bondholders, the One Percent of savers who held the rest of the economy in debt. Bernanke wrote a Financial Timespiece producing junk statistics purporting to show that there was no underlying debt or financial problem at all, merely a “panic.” To paraphrase, he said: “The crisis was all in the mind folks. Nothing to see here. Keep moving on.” It is as if, as Margaret Thatcher liked to insist, There Is No Alternative.

    Can this bailout without debt writedowns really bring prosperity? Can economies achieve growth by “borrowing their way out of debt,” by creating enough new credit to cover the interest charges out of capital gains from the asset-price inflation fueled by new bank credit. That is the logic that has guided the Federal Reserve’s net $4.3 trillion in Quantitative Easing, and the parallel credit creation by the European Central Bank under Mario “Whatever it takes” Draghi. Ellen Brown recently published a review, “Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk, noting that the ECB has become a major stock buyer. The beneficiaries are the stockholders who are concentrated in the wealthiest percentiles of the population. Governments are not underwriting homeownership or the solvency of labor’s pension plans, but are underwriting the value of collateral backing the savings of the narrow financial class.

    The GDP accounts report the widening gap between low government bond rates and the cost of credit to banks compared to the higher rates paid by mortgage borrowers, credit-card holders and student loan customers as “financial services.” What is extracted from the economy is added to the GDP statistic instead of being treated as a subtrahend. This absurd practice reflects the degree to which Wall Street lobbyists have captured economic statistics. The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) have been turned into a vehicle for deception. What is celebrated as growth of the GDP since 2008 has been mainly the growth in financial extraction, along with the health-insurance sector profiting from Obamacare.

    Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under George W. Bush, uses Orwellian doublethink to pretend that “Debt is Wealth.” He concludes a Wall Street Journal op-ed:

    “An ability to recapitalize banks remains crucial and must be explained to a skeptical Congress and public,” so that wealthy bondholders and speculators will not suffer losses.

    On a brighter side, Adair Turner pokes fun at the “Authoritative experts such as the IMF [who] explained how increased securitisation and trading activity made the financial system more efficient and less risky.” It was as if “options” and hedges can get rid of risk entirely, not shift them onto Wall Street victims such as the naïve German Landesbanks.

    The aim of this week’s disinformation campaign is to prevent popular anger advocating what was done in classical antiquity. The ancients fought civil wars for land redistribution and debt cancellation. Today the demand should be for mortgage writedowns to bring their carrying charges in line with reasonable rent charges, limited to the former normal 25 percent of homeowner income – while rolling back the FICA wage withholding and allied taxes levied to bail out the creditor class.

    An Athenian antecedent to today’s financial takeover

    It is an old story, with a striking parallel in classical Athens. After losing the Peloponnesian war to oligarchic Sparta in 404, a Pinochet-style military junta – the Thirty Tyrants – was installed. During its eight months of terror its members killed a reported 1,500 democratic advocates whose land and other property they grabbed. Advocates of democracy took refuge in Thrace and other neighboring regions.

    After the exiled democratic leaders reconquered Athens, they sought to restore harmony, going so far as to pay off all the debts that the oligarchic junta had run up to Sparta. To top matters, the subsequent 4thcentury obliged Athenian jurors and indeed, mayors in some Greek cities to swear an oath: “I will not allow private debts (chreon idiom) to be cancelled, nor lands nor houses of Athenian citizens to be redistributed.”

    If no such pledge is needed today by public officials, it is because the financial administrators at the Treasury, Federal Reserve and other regulatory agencies already have shown themselves to be so tunnel-visioned from graduate school through their employment history that they can be trusted to find debt writedowns as unthinkable as enforcing laws against criminal financial fraud to punish individuals rather than their institutions. Academia joins in the deception that financial engineering can sustain a geometric growth in debt ad infinitumwithout imposing austerity.The bailout aftermath has demonstrated that corporations are not really  “persons” if they cannot be given jail time.

    The key financial principle is that this self-expansion of interest-bearing debt grows to absorb more and more of the economic surplus. The solution therefore must involve wiping out the excess debt – and savings that have been badly lent. That is what crashes are supposed to do. It was not done in 2008. That is why the status quo was not restored. A vast giveaway to the financial elites occurred, setting the rest of the economy on a road to debt peonage.

    • It would have been nice to have read an article by Sheila Bair explaining the procedures that the FDIC had in place, ready to take over insolvent Citigroup and other banks in similar straits, saving all the insured depositors by taking over these institutions. No doubt as public institutions they would not have indulged in junk mortgages or, for that matter, takeover loans.

    • It would have been nice to hear from Hank Paulson and perhaps Barney Frank on how they tried to get incoming President Obama to write down bad mortgages whose carrying charges were as far above the debtor’s ability to pay as they were above the going rental value for similar properties.

    • It would have been nice to hear a mea culpa from Mr. Obama apologizing for representing the interest of his campaign donors by standing between them and his voters with pitchforks. Even an article by Tim Geithner or Eric Holder on how lucky they felt at getting such high-paying jobs after they left office from the financial sector they had overseen and “regulated.”

    What is needed now is to follow up the primary policy perception that today’s financially dysfunctional economy cannot be saved without a bank crash. That means rolling back the enormous gains that the FIRE sector has made since 1980 at the expense of the “real” economy.  Banks have ceased to be an “engine of growth.” They are not making loans to create new means of production. They are lending to asset strippers, not asset creators. It is not hard to show this statistically. (I drafted an attempt in Killing the Host, and am now working with Democracy Collaborative to prepare a larger study.)

    At stake is whether the U.S. and Western European economies are going to end up looking like those of Greece, Latvia and Argentina – or imperial Rome for that matter. Neoliberals applaud today’s victorious finance capitalism as the “end of history.” One such end has already occurred once, at the close of Roman antiquity. It is remembered as the Dark Age. Progress stopped as the creditor and landowning class lorded it over the rest of society. Trade survived only among the lords at the top of the economic pyramid. Today’s “End of History” dream threatens to unfold along similar lines. It is all about relative power of the One Percent.

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Today’s News 21st September 2018

  • Italy Is Suffering The Worst 'Brain-Drain' In Europe

    Figures released today by Eurostat have revealed a concentration of the European Union’s scientists and engineers in the UK and Germany.

    As Statista’s Martin Armstrong points out, combined, the two countries are home to 38 percent while at the same time only accounting for 29 percent of the EU’s total population.

    Infographic: Brain Drain Within the EU? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Conversely, France and Italy have 25 percent of the total population but only 16 percent of the scientists and engineers, but Italy stands out among the larger populations with just a 6% share of the EU’s scientists and engineers, while representing 12% of the EU’s total population – a serious brain drain.

  • The International Criminal Court: A Failed Experiment

    Authored by Ahmed Charai via The Gatestone Institute,

    • Ambassador John Bolton was prescient in his 1998 warning, when the formation of body was first being debated in Rome, that it would be ineffective, unaccountable and overly political.

    • The reconciliation commissions of South Africa and Morocco aimed to rehabilitate victims, and pay compensation for state outrages against them. That method would be a better model for Africa than a court funded and run from Europe.

    • The International Criminal Court is a noble ideal but a flawed institution. Far better to encourage nations to develop courts that are accountable to the victims and free from charges of selective enforcement or foreign intervention.

    The International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands. (Image source: United Nations/Flickr)

    The International Criminal Court (ICC) is “already dead to us” National Security Adviser John Bolton told the Federalist Society recently. The U.S. will, he said, resist the court “by any means necessary.”

    Why would the Trump Administration take such a hard line against “the world’s court of last resort”? Founded in 2002, in the wake of the Rwandan and Yugoslavian genocides and mass rapes, the international body was supposed to try evildoers who would otherwise escape justice due to broken legal systems in failed states.

    Opposing the court is not a new position for the U.S. or Ambassador Bolton. The Bush Administration refused to sign the court’s implementing treaty in 2003, contending that it would lead to trials of U.S. soldiers and spies by a politically turbo-charged body located in Europe. At the time, many European leaders opposed President Bush’s war in Iraq and questioned its actions in the war on terror, including rendition and holding prisoners indefinitely at Guantanamo Bay. Ambassador Bolton was even more prescient. He warned, in 1998, when the formation of body was first being debated in Rome, that it would be ineffective, unaccountable and overly political.

    Now, U.S. soldiers may face charges for activities in Afghanistan. While the U.S. is not a signatory of the treaty, Afghanistan is, and the court claims jurisdiction over any actions taken there. If the ICC begins prosecuting American “war crimes” abroad, commanders will temper their battle plans, soldiers will become gun-shy and civilians will refuse to serve. America’s sovereign right to defend itself will be weakened. Israel is also expected to be another target, as the Palestinian Authority has agreed to the court’s jurisdiction and has already requested a probe.

    In practice, the International Criminal Court is a failed experiment.

    Its trials appear selective and political. While the court has received more than 10,000 written complaints referring to 139 countries, according to the London-based Africa Research Centre, it has focused its prosecutions exclusively on sub-Saharan Africans. Of the 10 investigations in progress, nine relate to African leaders or rebel leaders. (The only non-African case was against Serbian extremists.) This leads to the all-too-easy accusation that the court is racist, neo-colonialist or, in the words of one African writer, “white justice for black Africans.” Following a 2013 African Union summit, Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn denounced the court as a “racial hunt”. While these charges are hyperbolic, the court’s selective prosecutions have undermined its credibility among Africans.

    The ICC has also not been successful in Africa. The court’s first chief prosecutor, Luis Ocampo, pledged to indict and try the leaders of Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a Ugandan terror group linked to slaughter, rape and kidnapping, by the end of 2005. The LRA’s leaders have yet to face justice. Almost a decade ago, the court indicted Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir. No trial has occurred and Bashir continues to travel freely to Arab and African states that have signed the ICC’s implementing treaty. The court has not delivered on its promise to bring justice to people who have none.

    As a result, African nations are pulling out. South Africa, Burundi, Gambia have voted to withdraw from the ICC and other African states are joining the stampede for the exit.

    The ICC likes to refer to itself as the world’s court, but it represents fewer and fewer of world’s nations. The U.S., Israel, China and Russia have refused to ratify the court’s implementing Treaty of Rome. The African Union itself has openly criticized the ICC and debated leaving the court’s jurisdiction en masse.

    The court’s leaders have, in addition, not held themselves to particularly high standards. Chief prosecutor Ocampo, defended his use of offshore bank accounts by saying that his salary was insufficient. Such a remark hardly inspires confidence.

    Even worse for the court’s credibility are the allegations brought by David Nyekorach Matsanga, president of the Pan-African Forum, that Silvia Fernández de Gurmendi, the ICC’s president, allegedly received illegal sums totaling some $17 million between 2004 and 2015. These payments, Matsanga said, were to bribe prosecution witness against Sudan’s president. A court spokesman dismissed Matsanga’s evidence as a falsified invoice and unverified bank records. (Matsanga is no angel. He was spokesman for the infamous Lord’s Resistance Army in the 1990s.) Still, the evidence deserves an impartial review.

    The International Criminal Court is a noble ideal but a flawed institution. Far better to encourage nations to develop courts that are accountable to the victims and free from charges of selective enforcement or foreign intervention. South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and the Moroccan’s Equity and Reconciliation Commission — a government body subject to oversight by the people’s representatives — have heard hard cases and delivered judgements respected across the political spectrum. The two institutions aimed to rehabilitate victims, and pay compensation for state outrages against them.

    That method would be a better model for Africa than a court funded and run from Europe.

  • The Next Big Geomagnetic Storm Poses An Astronomical Risk To Modern Man

    Scientists are concerned about the next significant “space weather” event, which begins at the sun in the center of the solar system. Severe space weather occurs less frequently than traditional weather on Earth but can be more destructive in nature.

    The sun is now headed towards a solar minimum, forecasted to arrive in 2019 as the Sun changes over from Solar Cycle 24 to Solar Cycle 25. The Sun goes through 11-year cycles, during which solar activity increases and decreases.

    Tracking sunspot activity dates back to the start of the first solar cycle in 1755. Today, simple sketching and counting of sunspot numbers have given way to land-based and space-based technologies that continuously monitor the Sun.

    Scientists have discovered that intense activity such as sunspots and solar flares generally subside during a solar minimum. Dean Pesnell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, said during a solar minimum, that does not mean the sun becomes dull.

    He said solar activity simply changes.

    For instance, Pesnell warned, “during a solar minimum, we can see the development of long-lived coronal holes.”

    Coronal holes are large regions in the sun’s atmosphere where the sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles known as coronal mass ejection (CME) to escape the sun as fast solar wind.

    If the coronal hole is Earth-facing, then electrically charged particles from the Sun slam into Earth’s magnetic field and cause intense electromagnetic storms around the planet. The impact of these particles on the electronic infrastructure underlying modern industrial civilization can be devastating, said the Financial Times.

    CMEs disrupt GPS, satellites, and astronauts currently in space. Even airline crew and passengers get a markedly higher dose of radiation during solar storms, especially during polar-crossing, trans-oceanic flights.

    And a repeat of the most significant solar storm on record, the 1859 Carrington Super-flare, would cost trillions of dollars in damage as power grids, communication networks, and electronic equipment worldwide would be knocked out.

    Some scientists believe that Earth is due for a severe space weather event that could send civilization temporarily into reverse.

    Another incident occurred in 1989, when an Earth-facing CME rocked the planet, producing a surge in voltage that caused Hydro-Québec power grid in Canada to collapse, leaving millions of people without electricity.

    “During a big geomagnetic storm in 2003, a Japanese scientific satellite was lost and 10 percent of the world’s satellite fleet suffered malfunctions,” said Professor Richard Horne of the British Antarctic Survey.

    “Today we have around 1,500 satellites in orbit, with thousands more due to be launched in the next few years,” Prof Horne adds. “People are trying to use more commercial off-the-shelf components, rather than components made to operate in space, and many systems have not been tested in a major storm, so there is a lot of uncertainty about what might happen.”

    A recent space weather event in late April 2017, allegedly knocked out power grids across the entire country in one simultaneous fashion. San Fransisco, New York, and Los Angeles were the three main areas affected. Each region experienced challenges or shutdowns in basic infrastructure such as communication networks and mass transportation.

    An unfortunate coincidence of adverse space and Earth weather came in September 2017, when space storms disrupted shortwave radios for hours — preventing emergency response to hurricanes tearing apart the Caribbean.

    “The Sun’s been very quiet for the last 10 years. It reminds people not to be complacent,” said Mike Hapgood, head of space weather at the UK Rutherford Appleton Laboratory.

    Scientists tell the Financial Times that satellites can monitor potentially troublesome activity on the sun days ahead of a possible eruption, forecasting the path and effects of an actual CME, well, that is very difficult. If the CME is Earth-facing it takes about 24-hours to arrive, so when the next big solar flare comes racing towards Earth, government officials do not have enough time to prepare the nation or even the world for impact — it would be devastating.

    According to Prof Horne, the most notable satellite for short-term space weather forecasting today is the US Deep Space Climate Observatory, or DSCOVR, launched into low-Earth Orbit (LEO) in 2015. From this tactical position about 1m miles from Earth, DSCOVR provides an early warning of about one hour before impact.

    In late 2016, the Obama administration quietly passed an executive order titled “Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events,” which prepares the fragile nation for economic collapse from a space weather event. The mainstream media, for a good reason, were not allowed to cover the passage of this executive order because it would cause too much panic among the American people. When the next significant solar event strikes, most will not be prepared — not even government.

  • Escobar: 'The West Against The Rest' Or 'The West Against Itself'?

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via ConsortiumNews.com,

    What is the bigger story? The West Against the Rest or The West Against Itself?

    The Illiberal Quartet of Xi, Putin, Rouhani and Erdogan is in the line of fire of haughty homilies about Western “values.”

    Illiberalism is arrogantly and provocatively depicted in the West repeatedly as a Tartar Invasion 2.0. But closer to home Illiberalism is responsible for the social, civil war in the U.S. as Trump’s America has long ago forgotten what the European Enlightenment was all about.

    The Western view is a maelstrom of a Judaeo-Greco-Roman, pseudo-philosophy steeped in Hegel, Toynbee, Spengler and obscure biblical references decrying an Asian attack on the “enlightened” West’s mission civilisatrice.

    The maelstrom stunts critical thinking to evaluate Xi’s Confucianism, Putin’s Eurasianism, Rouhani’s realpolitik and “non-Westoxified” Shi’ite Islam, as well as Erdogan’s quest to guide the global Muslim Brotherhood.

    Targets of the West.

    Instead the West give us phony “analyses” of how NATO should be praised for not allowing Libya to become a Syria, which it indeed has.

    Meanwhile a golden rule prevails about one Asian power: never criticize the House of Saud, which happens to be the ultimate manifestation of Illiberalism.

    They get a free pass because after all they are “our bastards.”

    What the illiberal-bashing frenzy does accomplish is to reduce what should be a crucial debate about a fearful West Against the Rest, to the more pressing issue of The West Against Itself.

    This intra-West battle is being manifested in several ways: Viktor Orban in Hungary, eurosceptic coalitions in Austria and Italy, the advance of the ultra right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and the Sweden Democrats. In short it’s The Revenge of the European Deplorables.

    Bannon’s ‘Paradise’ Regained

    Into this European fray steps Steve Bannon, the master strategist who elected Donald Trump and is now taking the continent by storm. He is about to launch his own think tank, The Movement, in Brussels, to foment no less than a right-wing populist revolution.

    It comes replete with Bannon spooking assorted EU lands by paraphrasing Satan in Milton’s Paradise Lost: “I prefer to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.”

    Bannon’s growing influence in Europe has reached the Venice Biennale, where director Errol Morris presented a documentary on Bannon, American Dharma, based on 18 hours of interviews with Trump’s Svengali himself.

    Bannon held court two weeks ago in Rome supported by Mischaël Modrikamen, the president of the Popular Party in Belgium, who is slated to lead The Movement. In Rome Bannon again met Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini – whom he had previously advised “for hours” to finally break a political coalition with fading star Silvio “Bunga Bunga” Berlusconi. Salvini and Berlusconi though are now horse-trading again.

    Bannon has correctly identified Italy as the vortex of post-politics, spearheading the crusade to defeat the EU. The game-changer should be the May 2019 European Parliament elections, which Bannon reads as a certified victory for Right populism and nationalist movements.

    In this do-or-die battle between populism and the Davos Party, Bannon wants to play The Undertaker against a puny George Soros.

    Bannon in Rome (CNBC)

    Bannon is even seducing cynics in France by designating self-described “Jupiter” Emmanuel Macron, now in public opinion free fall, as public enemy number one. A faded U.S. newsweekly declared Macron to be The Last Man Standing between “European values” and, well, fascism. Bannon is more realistic: Macron is “a Rothschild banker who never made money – the definition of a loser…He imagines himself to be a new Napoleon.”

    Bannon is connecting across Europe because he has identified how the West peddles “socialism for the very rich and the very poor” and “a brutal form of Darwinian capitalism for everybody else.” Quite a few Europeans easily grasp his simplistic concept of Right populism, according to which citizens must be able to get jobs, something impossible when illegal immigration is used as a scam to depress workers’ salaries.

    The political strategy underlining The Movement is to unite all European nationalist vectors – a currently fragmented mess featuring sovereignists, neoliberals, radicalized nationalists, racists, conservatives and extremists on a quest for respectability.

    To his credit, Bannon viscerally understood how the EU is a vast, de facto “un-sovereignty” space held hostage to economic austerity. The EU bureaucracy can easily be construed as Illiberalism Central: It was never a democracy.

    There’s no question Bannon impressed on Salvini the need to keep hammering over and over again how the Germany-France leadership of the EU is anti-democratic. But there’s a huge problem: The Movement, and the Right populism galaxy, center almost exclusively on the role of illegal migrants – leading non-ideological cynics to suspect this might be little else than State xenophobia posing as a revolt of the masses.

    Meanwhile, in Plato’s Cave…

    Belgian political theorist Chantal Mouffe, teaching at the University of Westminster and a darling of the multicultural café society, could easily be depicted as the anti-Bannon. She does identify the “crisis of neoliberal hegemony” and is capable of outlining how post-politics is all about Right and Left wallowing together in a conceptual swamp.

    The political impasse of the whole West once again revolves around TINA: There Is No Alternative, in this case to neoliberal globalization. The Goddess of the Market is Athena and Venus rolled into one. The question is how to organize a politically strong reaction against the all-out marketization of life.

    Mouffe at least understands that just demonizing Right populism as irrational – while despising the “deplorables” – is not good enough.

    Yet she places too much hope in the fuzzy political strategy of Podemos in Spain, La France Insoumise in France, or Bernie Sanders in the U.S. Arguably the only progressive politician in Europe who has a clear shot at government is Jeremy Corbyn – who’s consuming all his energy fighting a nasty demonization campaign.

    Mouffe: The anti-Bannon. (Stephan Röhl-Wikimedia Commons.)

    Sanders has just launched a manifesto calling for a Progressive International – capable of outlining a New Deal 2.0 and a new Bretton Woods.

    For his part, Yanis Varoufakis, former Greek finance minister and co-founder of theDiEM25 democratic movement, laments the triumph of a Nationalist International – at least stressing that they “sprang out of the cesspool of financialized capitalism”.

    Yet he resorts to the same old players when it comes to pushing for a Progressive International: Sanders, Corbyn and his own DiEM25.

    Mouffe’s conceptual solution is to bet on what she describes as Left populism, which can be construed as anything from “democratic socialism” to “participatory democracy”, depending “on the different national context.”

    This implies that populism – relentlessly demonized by the neoliberal elites – is far from a toxic perversion of democracy, and can be authentically progressive.

    Slavoj Zizek, in The Courage of Hopelessness, couldn’t agree more, when he stresses that when the masses “not convinced by ‘rational’ capitalist discourse” prefer a “populist anti-elitist stance,”this has nothing to do with “lower-class primitivism”.

    In fact Noam Chomsky, way back in 1991, in Necessary Illusions: Thought Control in Democratic Societies, had brilliantly shown how Western “democracy” really works: “It is only when the threat of popular participation is overcome that democratic forms can be safely contemplated.”

    “So what does Europe want?” Zizek asks. He holds the merit of identifying the “principal contradiction” of what he qualifies as “The New World Order” (actually we’re still under the slow burn of the Old Word Disorder). Zizek succinctly depicts the contradiction as “the structural impossibility of finding a global political order that could correspond to the global capitalist economy.”

    And that’s why the “change” spectrum is so limited, and for the moment totally captured by Right populism. Nothing substantial can happen without a real socio-economic transformation, a new world-system replacing casino capitalism.

    Taking the shadowplay in their Platonic – Russophobic – cave for reality, while mourning “the end of Atlanticism,” the champions of “Western values” prefer to adopt a diversionist tactic.

    They keep on summoning fear of “illiberal” Putin and his “malign behavior” undermining the EU, coupled with “debt trap” neo-colonialism inflicted on unsuspecting customers by those devious Chinese.

    These elites could not possibly understand they face a plight of their own making, courtesy of free market populism, which happens to be the apex of Western Illiberalism.

  • Ex-PBOC Head Warns China's Exporters Could Soon Ditch The US

    Former Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan suggested on Wednesday that the direct impact on China of the trade war with the US “appears limited,” though it could quickly prompt China’s top exporters to pivot away from US markets. Xiaochuan, who left the bank in March after 15 years at the helm, told Reuters that China’s economy would be stable in 2018, with an expected growth rate of 6.5%, but needed to shift away from an economic model based on “urbanization,” or constructing ghost cities.

    However, the main risk to the global economy is protectionism according to the ex-PBOC head. The costs of protectionism could hit the US the hardest, as Chinese firms are expected to withdraw from US markets and expand into other global economies:“I think it will force China to look at many other markets. So it’s not necessarily a good thing for the United States,” he said.

    “I think the speed of (geographical) diversification can be relatively fast and beyond many people’s expectations.”

    Reuters said Xiaochuan downplayed the idea that protectionism will severely affect economic growth in China, which he said had been estimated at 0.2-0.8% of GDP, but added that trade wars are creating uncertainties and could hurt business confidence.

    Xiaochuan is right, in the latest US Economic Outlook via Barclays, US Economist Michael Gapen revealed that global growth momentum is already slowing.

    Gapen also showed that global trade volume as a share of world GDP has likely reached a turning point into a protectionist era.

    As a result of the peak in “hyper-globalization”, China is being forced to change its growth strategy after many decades. The economic driver of supplying Western markets with cheap goods and constructing ghost cities in China are over. “Whether this is reaching the peak or has peaked and maybe going down, we need to find some new economic growth driver,” said Xiaochuan.

    That new “driver” could be the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s ambitious effort to promote regional cooperation and connectivity on a trans-continental scale via infrastructure-building projects covering Eurasia, various oceans, and parts of Africa (while saddling up neighboring nations with massive debt due to China).

    The BRI will allow China to pivot away from the US markets and the dollar system by enabling the internationalization of the yuan (also known as the renminbi (RMB)) with countries along this new economic system.

    Xiaochuan added that more global market participants might start using the yuan as China improves the exchange rate regime and the currency becomes more usable and convertible. “So if the other currencies have some problem, the global market may decide to use more RMB.”

    As China exporters begin to pivot away from the US and focus on BRI countries, has Trump protectionist bluff backfired and alienated one of the country’s biggest trading partners?

  • The Reason The Solar Observatory Was Closed Is Revealed, And It's As Disturbing As It Is Unbelievable

    As we noted earlier in the week, The National Solar Observatory in Sunspot, New Mexico reopened on Monday after it was shut down September 6 following a mysterious FBI raid, according to the group which manages the facility. 

    And despite federal agents swooping in on a Blackhawk helicopter, and a “bunch of people around antennas and work crews on towers” before the site was completely evacuated – the official explanation has left people scratching their heads; According to officials, they had been cooperating with an existing law enforcement investigation, when “a suspect in the investigation potentially posed a threat to the safety of local staff and residents,” so “moving the small number of on-site staff and residents off the mountain was the most prudent and effective action to ensure their safety.”

    AURA has been cooperating with an on-going law enforcement investigation of criminal activity that occurred at Sacramento Peak. During this time, we became concerned that a suspect in the investigation potentially posed a threat to the safety of local staff and residents. For this reason, AURA temporarily vacated the facility and ceased science activities at this location. 

    The decision to vacate was based on the logistical challenges associated with protecting personnel at such a remote locationand the need for expeditious response to the potential threat. AURA determined that moving the small number of on-site staff and residents off the mountain was the most prudent and effective action to ensure their safety. –AURA

    No word on why the FBI was involved, or urgently needed to fly in on a loud, suspect-spooking helicopter instead of simply driving to the facility, or why they couldn’t just arrest the guy and keep the place open. Also no explanation for the work crew climbing all over the towers, or why they shut down the post office.

    But it gets even more mysterious, as SHTFplan.com’s Mac Slavo notes, the “official” reason for the closure is far more sinister, as KTSM.com reports:

    A federal search warrant reveals that Sunspot Solar Observatory was shut down as FBI agents conducted computer forensic searches for child pornography.

    The source of child pornography was traced to an IP address used at the observatory and a source within the building observed a computer with “not good” images on it, the warrant states.

    The warrant also states that the suspect used the observatory’s WiFi and a personal laptop to download the images.

    According to the FBI, a janitor is the main suspect. He was one of the few people who had access to the observatory from dusk until dawn. His name is listed on the warrant, but he has yet to be charged with a crime.

    The observatory reopened on September 17.

    Some are skeptical about this explanation, given that all employees were evacuated from the site. About a dozen residents who live around the site were also evacuated. The U.S. Postal Service decided to evacuate employees, too, according to a report by the Alamogordo Daily News.

    Evacuating employees, local residents, and post office employees seems a little extreme, doesn’t it? How would a computer containing child pornography (as terrible as it is) be dangerous to employees and people who were not even in the building?

    Why were the people working on the radio towers?

    When was the last time a pedophile was taken down with a Blackhawk? It appears to us that the “official” reason for this debacle is even more unreasonable than the official “facts” behind the Skripal murders in England (though we are sure it will not be long before the Russians are blamed for the solar minimum and the need to shut down the observatory (either them or Trump).

  • "Rush Game With The Tariff": The Race Is On To Get Chinese Goods Into U.S.

    As the US-imposed 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth Chinese goods is set to take effect Monday, the race is now on to get Chinese goods into the U.S.

    By plane, train, and sea, a frenzy has begun, resulting in surging cargo traffic at US ports, booming air freight to the US, and urgent dispatch of goods from Chinese companies earlier than planned. Getting in under the wire before Trump’s tariffs bite could mean hundreds of thousands saved on single shipments. 

    Bloomberg describes this week that cargo rates for Pacific transport are at a four-year high as manufacturers rush to get everything from toys to car parts to bikes into American stores.

    This rush, which comes on top of a typically already busy pre-holiday season, is expected to continue well after next week as the tariff will leap from 10 to 25 percent after the new year

    US importers are expected to stockpile Chinese products before the 2019 25% mark. There’s currently widespread reports of companies scrambling to pay expedited air freight fees to dodge the new tariffs, as well as move up their orders. 

    Bloomberg relates the following on both sides of the Pacific

    • In Jiangsu province on China’s east coast, E.D. Opto Electrical Lighting Co. dispatched a batch of car lights by sea to Los Angeles in late August, earlier than planned.
    • In the industrial hub of Dongguan in southern China, toy maker Lung Cheong Group: “More clients in the last two months are asking if we can deliver goods ahead of the scheduled time to avoid the upcoming tariffs,” said Chairman Lun Leung. For small high-tech toys that have higher retail selling prices, some clients are willing to upgrade from sea freight to air, he said.
    • Imports to northern California’s Port of Oakland surged 9.2 percent in August. That was the busiest August in the port’s 91-year history.
    • At the Port of Long Beach, imports of containers rose 9.4 percent this year through August. That comes after a record 2017.
    • Concerns about the trade dispute is also spurring last-minute shipments across the Pacific for Ocean Network Express Pte., a combination of the container operations of Japan’s three biggest shipping firms, it said.
    • Ralph Bradley, chief executive officer of a small automotive lighting manufacturer in Fort Worth, Texas, has more than $300,000 of products coming to the U.S. on a boat from China. There’s not much he can do about paying the 10 percent duty, or $30,000, on those vehicle-lighting parts.

    Describing the tariff-induced rush, Rahul Kapoor, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence in Singapore, said “We have a rush game with the tariff,” and noted instances of cargo actually left behind at Chinese docks because ships were packed so full ahead embarking for the US. 

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    If there’s one bright spot for Americans, it’s that initially the trade war  which has this week seen China with its own tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods  is not expected to hit consumer check books right away. 

    With accelerated shipments from China in the short term in order to beat the tariff deadlines, the anticipated price hikes at retailer giants like Walmart and Target will likely be delayed due to the surplus of items coming in. 

    Meanwhile China, for its part has had its trade surplus with the US pushed to record levels in August due to the front-loading of exports. 

  • Kavanaugh Accuser Now Willing To Testify Sans FBI Probe, With Conditions

    Faced with the possibility of GOP legislators calling Dianne Feinstein’s bluff, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser, Christine Blasey Ford has dramatically flipped, telling legislators in an email somehow obtained by the New York Times that she “would be prepared to testify next week,” so long as senators offer “terms that are fair and which ensure her safety.” 

    Blasey claims to have received a multitude of death threats, for which zero arrests have been made in an age of easily-traceable IP addresses. 

    In the email, obtained by The New York Times, the lawyer for Christine Blasey Ford said that testifying Monday — the timetable Republicans have set for a hearing — “is not possible and the Committee’s insistence that it occur then is arbitrary in any event.” The lawyer reiterated that it is Dr. Blasey’s “strong preference” that “a full investigation” occur before her testimony — wording that stopped short of demanding an F.B.I. probe and suggested she is open to testifying without one. –NYTimes

    “As you are aware, she has been receiving death threats, which have been reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and she and her family have been forced out of their home,” the email reads. “She wishes to testify, provided that we can agree on terms that are fair and which ensure her safety.”

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    Blasey has accused Kavanaugh of attempted rape during a high school party in Montgomery County, MD. She can’t recall the date, location, or much more about the event – just that Kavanaugh allegedly held her down and groped her while another guy watched (who categorically denies it), and she was able to escape. 

    On Thursday, committee GOP agreed to hire an outside counsel to handle questioning of Blasey, rather than have the committee members themselves question her, according to a Republican Senate official familiar with the decision – as opposed to 11 male senators questioning Blasey on her account of the alleged incident.

    Meanwhile, former clerk to the late USSC Justice Antonin Scalia, Ed Whelan, insists that evidence will emerge next week exonerating Kavanaugh, and that Dianne Feinstein will “soon be apologizing” to Kav. 

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  • Land Reform & Farm Murders In South Africa: The Untold Story Of The Boers And The ANC

    Via Ammo.com,

    South African farm murders have long been a niche cause on the Internet, and the country has made headlines again due to a South African government plan to seize the land of white farmers under the guise of “South African land reform.”

    News of these farm murders and land seizures have gained steam with the release of Lauren Southern’s documentary Farmlands. And United States President Donald Trump has brought even more attention to the plight of Afrikaners with his tweet that he would be looking into the South African land and farm seizure.

    Most people don’t know much about the history of South Africa beyond the simplistic propaganda of the 1980s – white South Africans bad, ANC good. The history and current situation of South Africa, however, is much more complex.

    Defining Terms: Who Are the Key Players?

    Before going any further, terms should be defined and the key players identified:

    • ANC: The African National Congress, the leading party in South Africa since the end of apartheid.

    • Afrikaners: Dutch-, German- and French Huguenot-descended white South Africans who primarily speak a language called Afrikaans.

    • Bantu: A group of black South Africans including the Xhosa (of which Nelson Mandela was a member) who originally lived in the northeast of the country.

    • Boers: A subset of Afrikaners who still lead a rural and agricultural existence.

    • Democratic Alliance: Currently the second-largest party in the South African parliament, the Democratic Alliance is a broad-based centrist party that is comparatively economically liberal for South Africa. It enjoys broad, multiracial support, though it is most popular among all racial minorities – white, Coloured and Indian. Its black supporters are often derided as “clever blacks” by ANC supporters.

    • EFF: The Economic Freedom Fighters, a far-left political party in South Africa that has pushed the South African government to seize land from white farmers. Sometimes derisively called “Everything for Free,” the EFF is the third-largest party in South Africa, but is poised to become the second.

    • Khoisan: A popular name for the original inhabitants of most of the territory now known as South Africa. This is not an ethnic designation, but a linguistic one. These are who the Dutch settlers first encountered.

    A Brief History of South Africa: From Early Settlement to the Boer War

    To understand the current situation in South Africa, it is important to first understand the country before, during and after apartheid.

    South Africa’s modern history begins with the Dutch East India Company, which established trading posts for sailors along the coast. Dutchmen soon started settling the area, with little, if any, conflict with the native Khoisan population. Dutch settlers, however, quickly came into conflict with the Dutch East India Company’s authoritarian rule.

    Freedom-seeking Dutch settlers moved north starting in the 17th Century. In 1852, Boers founded the South African Republic (known as the “Transvaal Republic”) and then the Orange Free State in 1854. These are called “Boer Republics” and they, in turn, came into conflict with both southward-expanding Bantu tribes (most notably the Zulu, who were in the process of conquering other nearby Bantu tribes) and the British Empire.

    White South Africans” are typically treated as a monolith, but there are two main, distinct groups: The Afrikaans-speaking Afrikaners and the English-speaking British. Indeed, there were intense hostilities between these two groups, especially after the Second Boer War when the Boer Republics were reforged as British colonies.

    Telling the Afrikaners to “go home” is a nonsensical statement. They are not Dutch. They do not hold Dutch passports, nor would they at any point have been welcomed back by the Kingdom of the Netherlands. In many regions of South Africa, the Afrikaners have been around longer than the Bantus and have a stronger claim on the land, having purchased it from Khoisans. On the other hand, traditionally Bantu land was conquered from other Bantu tribes or taken by the Bantus from the Khoisans.

    A Brief History of South Africa: The Boer Wars

    “The Boer Wars” refers to two wars between the Boer Republics and the British Empire, but mostly the second one. The first was a rout for the Boers and left the British Empire with egg on their face. They would not be embarrassed a second time.

    The first concentration camps were built for Boers. Not just any Boers, but primarily the wives and children of Boer Commandos (irregular guerilla troops) fighting the British Empire. The strategy was simple: Lock up their women and children, and they will lose their will to fight.

    It worked. Adding insult to injury, the most publicized photo of the concentration camps, a picture of seven-year-old Lizzie van Zyl nearly starved to death, was touted in the British press as evidence of parental neglect by the Boers. There was great international outcry against the British during the Boer War, but it never amounted to much.

    Boer Republics were reconstituted as British colonies. In 1910, three British colonies were unified as the Union of South Africa. After World War I, South West Africa, today known as Namibia, was administered effectively as a fifth province of South Africa, but for obscure reasons never integrated. South Rhodesia voted on membership, nearly joining, but the argument that it would become “the Ulster of Africa” proved too powerful. The history of South Africa is largely that of a rebellious and unhappy British Dominion until 1948.

    A Brief History of South Africa: Enter Apartheid

    “Apartheid” is an Afrikaans word meaning “separateness.” It was a series of laws drafted beginning in 1948, after the success of the Afrikaner-heavy National Party in the national elections. There was a split in the party between those who favored apartheid as it happened versus those who favored complete separation, including parallel governance. The former won out in no small part due to a thirst for cheap black labor.

    Most people know the basics of apartheid, but they are worth going over briefly here: South Africans were classified into one of four racial categories: white, black, Coloured (a non-pejorative term in South Africa, meaning roughly “mixed race”) and Asian or Indian. In 1949, mixed marriages were outlawed with cross-racial intercourse outlawed the following year. In 1953, amenities were segregated by law. Increasingly, the blacks of South Africa were segregated into townships and Bantustans, the latter being nominally independent “homelands” for Africans. This meant that as foreign nationals, in the eyes of the Union of South Africa, they were required to carry documentation to work in South Africa and needed to leave after they were done.

    Coloureds, who had the vote, were slowly disenfranchised. Indians and other Asians were never allowed to vote.

    Between the end of World War II and the declaration of a republic in 1961, internal politics were dominated by the division between conservative republican Afrikaners and liberal monarchist British whites. Apartheid enjoyed greater support among Afrikaners and less among British South Africans. British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan’s “Wind of Change” speech increased support for apartheid among British South Africans because of a sense of abandonment by the homeland. Many were upset at being forced by the British government to choose between South African and British citizenship and passports.

    Still, none of this amounted to what the National Party hoped to achieve – a cohesive and united white South African identity. Support for apartheid was always tepid among British South Africans.

    It is certainly true that notions of racial superiority were a prime motivator for apartheid, but there was another factor in play: Communism. The Suppression of Communism Act was passed by the first apartheid government, banning any Communist organization. The Act took a broad view of what constituted “Communism.” However, given the infiltration of mass movements, particularly in the developing world at the beginning of the Cold War, this is perhaps less cynical than it is commonly made out to be. The Act was used to suppress the African National Congress, something we will talk about in detail later.

    Finally, it’s worth mentioning that Afrikaner society is fundamentally and deeply conservative. Pornography and gambling were illegal in apartheid-era South Africa. Most businesses could not open on Sundays. Abortion, homosexuality and reproductive education were tightly regulated. There was no television until 1976, as this was believed to be immoral and a vehicle of Communism. English-language programming was seen as a threat to Afrikaans culture.

    A Brief History of South Africa: The Rise of the ANC and Nelson Mandela

    The Suppression of Communism Act was the instrument used to outlaw the African National Congress. While the ANC is typically thought of as a democratic-liberal organization, this is simply not true.

    The ANC’s closest ally was the South African Communist Party. Indeed, Nelson Mandela, the face of anti-apartheid resistance, was not only a member of the SACP, he served on its Central Committee, something he denied for decades. The SACP has never to this day contested its own candidates in South Africa, instead fielding their people on ANC slates.

    What’s more, the SACP partnered with the ANC in forming Umkhonto we Sizwe (“Spear of the Nation”), the paramilitary wing of the anti-apartheid movement.

    The average person on the street likely thinks that Nelson Mandela was imprisoned simply for being black or opposing apartheid. In fact, he was imprisoned for a bombing campaign carried out by Umkhonto we Sizwe, of which he was the head. In fact, Nelson Mandela was convicted of 193 acts of terrorism. He was offered his freedom multiple times on the simple condition that he condemn terrorist attacks against the apartheid regime. He refused every time.

    The ANC was not the only organization in South Africa opposed to apartheid. Many white South Africans saw the system as unsustainable. However, outside of South Africa, the situation was largely posed by the media as a question of “apartheid forever or the ANC.”

    The ANC and its allies in the Communist Party and the trade union congress COSATU (known as the tripartite alliance) were not the only alternative to the ruling National Party and thus apartheid. The Progressive Federal Party was the main parliamentary opposition to apartheid, which, as the name implies, was in favor of a federated South Africa. The New Republic Party was likewise in favor of power sharing and oriented toward reconciliation with the Commonwealth.

    The New Republic Party and the Progressive Federal Party were also bitter enemies. The New Republic Party was a conservative party denounced as racists by the Progressive Federal Party. The Progressive Federal Party was a liberal party derided by the NRP with the nickname “Packing for Perth,” due to the impression that their members were all emigrating to Australia. Two-thirds of South African whites supported some sort of federalism or power sharing, but moderate elements never received any international support.

    Nor was the ANC the sole representative of South African blacks. Zulu nationalists, currently represented by the Inkatha Freedom Party, were often bitter enemies of the ANC by the 1980s. Many black South Africans served in the police force and other aspects of the government, leading to the rise of a barbaric form of retribution known as “necklacing.” This is filling a tire with gasoline, hanging it around the neck of a suspected collaborator or political opponent, and lighting the tire on fire. Death can take several hours.

    Winnie Mandela, then-wife of Nelson Mandela, declared that “With our boxes of matches, and our necklaces, we shall liberate this country.” This caused the ANC to create some distance between itself and her, but ultimately she was given further positions in the movement and the ANC government.

    A Brief History of South Africa: The ANC in the Saddle

    In 1994, the African National Congress took power in South Africa. At this time, its paramilitary organization was integrated into the country’s regular defense forces. Convicted bomber Robert McBride, praised by no less than IRA terrorist Martin McGuinness, is the Executive Director of the Independent Police Investigative Directorate. Touted as the “Rainbow Nation,” the fall of apartheid in South Africa was part of an overall feeling of optimism throughout the world surrounding the Fall of Communism.

    However, not everything was roses in the new Republic of South Africa. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission was an attempt to lay bare the crimes of the apartheid regime. The tribunal, which did not dispense with sentences, but merely sought to find the truth, has been criticized for not dispensing any justice. Neither former National Party government members nor ANC partisans were punished by the Commission.

    The elephant in the room at all times was an overwhelming increase in the crime rate. The term “rape gate” entered popular parlance as South Africans installed panic room doors on their bedrooms. Crime is the main reason for emigration from South Africa. The 2013 murder rate was seven times that of the United States, the 11th highest in the world. Between 2005 and 2015, over 200,000 South Africans were murdered – this in a country of about 50 million. There were over 17,000 murders in 2013 alone. Compare this to just over 14,000 in the United States during the same year, despite the fact that South Africa’s population is approximately equivalent to two states – California and Texas.

    This is only the official murder rate. Many suspect that the rate is higher, due to a disengagement from formal policing and a reliance upon private security firms. Quality of public services has likewise deteriorated, with rolling blackouts being the norm in South Africa.

    The ANC presides over what is potentially the largest welfare state in the world, according to economist Mike Schussler in 2010. Six percent (3.3 million South Africans) of the population pays 99 percent of the taxes, while 31 percent (16.4 million) receive social grants. This means there are five South Africans receiving welfare for every one paying taxes. 71 percent of South African children live in houses where no adult is employed.

    South Africa has a sweeping affirmative action quota program. Employee demographics must, under the South African Employment Equity Act, represent the racial demographics of South Africa as a whole. This means that, for example, the national power company was pressured to fire a number of skilled white engineers, while the country was going through rolling blackouts. The country currently has a labor shortage of approximately 800,000 skilled workers.

    The affirmative action program has not lead to a significant increase in the number of skilled black technical workers. In 1994, 15 percent of black South Africans held skilled technical positions. In 2014, this percentage had increased to 18. Meanwhile, between 1992 and 1997, the number of skilled technical degrees dropped by 13 percent while the number of degrees in public administration and social services skyrocketed by 199 percent.

    Finally, the specter of corruption has hung over the ANC regime. Scandals surrounding the ANC government have included bribery in arms deals, the abolition of a task force dedicated to organized crime and corruption, sexual misconduct including criminal charges, and using government and civil organizations to fight its political opponents, particularly those in the Democratic Alliance.

    What Are the South African Farm Murders?

    It is currently twice as dangerous to be a South African farmer than a South African police officer. The murder rate among South African farmers is three times that of the standard murder rate in South Africa, which is already one of the highest in the world.

    The government claims the motives for the farm attacks are robbery. However, this does not pass muster. Farm attacks frequently include raping the female members of the household – including young children – while forcing the male members of the household to watch. The victims are often then tortured to death in front of each other. Farmers claim police response to these attacks is sluggish at best and nonexistent at worse. The government stopped collecting statistics about farm murders in 2008.

    What’s more, the attacks on white farmers in South Africa tend to have pitched levels of brutality about them. Without getting too lost in the weeds of the grizzly details, it’s worth mentioning some of the more grotesque attacks on farmers at least in passing:

    • In 2012, a 12-year-old boy was drowned in boiling water after watching both his parents murdered and his mother raped.

    • A 56-year-old grandmother was gang raped during a robbery netting approximately $2,000.

    • Five men sexually assaulted a woman in front of her 5-year-old son over the course of an hour and a half.

    • Over the course of six hours, a woman was tortured by having her skin cut off, raped and had her feet power drilled.

    • A 66-year-old man was beaten to death in front of his wife. She escaped being gang raped by saying that she had HIV.

    • Bedridden Alice Lotter, 76, and her daughter Helen, 57 were tortured to death over several hours, including by being stabbed in the genitals with a broken glass bottle. One had one of her breasts removed while still alive. “Kill the Boer” was painted on the wall in their blood.

    • Knowledge Mandlazi went on a killing spree in 2014, murdering five whites and stating that “My hate for white people made me rob and kill.” He held up his middle finger to surviving victims in the courtroom.

    Another common form of attack is the land invasion. In one example, 100 men began squatting land. The farmer did the sensible thing and left. Who could blame him in the kind of environment described above?

    Far from being a “white nationalist conspiracy theory,” farm attacks have been reported on and denounced by Human Rights Watch and former Australian Prime Minister Tony AbbotAfriforum, a wing of Christian trade union Solidarity, likewise reports on farm attacks regularly.

    What Is Behind the South African Farm Attacks?

    Anti-white racism is a popular current in mainstream South African politics. The song “Kill the Farmer, Kill the Boer” is still publicly sung, despite this being declared a hate crime. The traditional means of protecting rural South Africans, the commando units, were disbanded in 2003, leaving many South African farmers with no protection.

    Anti-white rhetoric in South Africa is very real and very mainstream. Here are a few examples:

    Compare this with the woman sentenced to three years in prison for calling someone a “kaffir.” It’s not surprising that some South Africans have begun getting trained by Israeli commandos to protect themselves and their property.

    What Are the Farm Seizures?

    The South African Constitution has recently been amended to allow for Soviet-style expropriations of farms without compensation. Zulu lands are specifically exempted.

    This is a bit nonsensical for two reasons. Many white South Africans have been in South Africa longer than most Americans have been in America. Second, the dominant black ethnic group, the Bantus, doesn’t have a strong claim to most of the land in South Africa – the Khoisans would, but they sold it to the Boers or had it conquered by the British. This is as if the U.S. government started seizing land from white families in upstate New York traditionally belonging to the Iroquois and giving it out to the Cherokee.

    Still, despite the fact that farm seizures are precisely the means by which Zimbabwe ended up in such a failed state, there seems to be no stopping farm seizures in South Africa. Perhaps worst of all, there are rumors that South Africa’s banks intend to collect mortgage payments even after properties have been confiscated.

    In the final analysis, the farm seizures in South Africa aren’t just about dispossessing an unpopular, market dominant racial minority – though that would be disturbing enough. It’s also a threat to South Africa’s incredibly fragile democracy. The ANC is a dominant party with little chance of losing elections and thus, little reason to behave accountably. Add to this the lack of a broad-based middle class with a vested interest in strong property rights, and you have a recipe for kleptocracy and starvation.

    *  *  *

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Today’s News 20th September 2018

  • New EU Copyright Law Could Force Online Platforms To Ban Memes Across Europe

    A new law being just passed in European Parliament and in the process of becoming finalized has received scant media attention, but could be nothing short of revolutionary in terms of its lasting impact on the internet, political speech and discourse, and the potential for censorship. So far the EU is moving the law forward, but it has sparked fierce push back, as it looks likely that soon entirely legal content will be caught in the law’s dragnet. 

    The law, in its full named called The European Union Directive on Copyright in the Digital Single Market, is intended to updated existing copyright laws for social media and the internet, but critics say it’s incredibly short sighted and creates more problems than it does solutions. At the heart of the law is Article 11, which as been dubbed the “link tax,” and Article 13, which is being called the “meme ban” due to the likely potential that internet memes could be banned across Europe

    Whereas so far the onus has been on artists and creators to flag copyright infringements, the new EU law requires platforms like YouTube, Google, Twitter, and Facebook to be responsible for copyright violations.

    This means these large platforms which host immense amounts of constantly updated images, memes, and information could be forced to require users to pass all content through an “upload filter” first which would theoretically ensure copyrighted information doesn’t make it onto the platform. 

    This is where memes, which are most often created using existing official images of political figures, events, or cartoons, could be banned as they would likely be flagged by such upload filters. The intent of the law is to protect the copyrighted content of artists, photographers, companies, and individual content creators, but critics say it will change the internet and social media platforms as we known it.

    According to Wired commenting on the so-called “meme ban,” or Article 13

    No one can quite agree how these platforms are expected to identify and remove this content. An earlier version of the Directive referred to “proportionate content recognition technologies” which sounds an awful lot like it’s asking platform owners to use automate filters to scan every piece of upload content and stop anything that might violate copyright from being uploaded

    The reason why this article has been dubbed the “meme ban” is that no one is sure whether memes, which are often based on copyrighted images, will fall foul of these laws. Proponents of the legislation argue that memes are protected as parodies and so aren’t required to be removed under this directive, but others argue that filters won’t be able to distinguish between memes and other copyrighted material so they’d end up being caught in the crossfire anyway.

    Likely even before implementation of such upload filters the law itself would have a chilling effect on companies, political groups, and individuals posting memes, for fear of being censored and flagged for copyrighted material. 

    Will the “distracted boyfriend” meme soon meet with this fate? This image has been redacted due to violating Article 13 of the EU Copyright Directive.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    There will also no doubt be, as Wired explains, and preponderance of incidents where public domain material is filtered out. 

    The “link tax,” or Article 11 is also deeply worrisome as it will require the same media platforms to pay a small fee every time snippets of a copyrighted article appear in an aggregator

    Wired explains:

    The article intends to get news aggregator sites, such as Google News, to pay publishers for using snippets of their articles on their platforms. Press publications “may obtain fair and proportionate remuneration for the digital use of their press publications by information society service providers,” the Directive states.

    Like with the potential of a meme ban, it is unclear just how this will be enforced, and how broad the impact will be. It could significantly alter the way users receive headlines and news via certain platforms.

    Wired continues:

    No one is really sure how this one would work either. How much of an article has to be shared before a platform has to pay the publisher? The Directive states that platforms won’t have to pay if they’re sharing “mere hyperlinks which are accompanied by individual words,” but since most links are accompanied by more than a couple of words it seems that many platforms and news aggregators would fall foul of this rule.

    The directive is not set to take effect immediately, and it could still be years before it impacts national legislation of EU member states. It’s now set to enter informal negotiations between the European Commission, Council and Parliament, after successfully being passed by EU Parliament. 

    But the bottom line is the law’s final wording will ultimately be set in the opaque deliberations of EU bureaucrats, and it can’t end well for internet giants Google, Facebook, or even individual users that want to retain the right to share simple memes. 

  • Orban's Moscow Visit A Middle Finger To EU After Last Week's Humiliation

    Authored by John Laughland via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    The “salon des refusés” of political dissidents in the EU is getting bigger by the day. Less than a week after his government was condemned in a vote in the European parliament, Orban is in Moscow for talks about energy with Putin. His visit to Russia is the political equivalent of giving the EU the finger following last week’s humiliation.

    Orban is not alone. In his battle with the EU over immigration and the rule of law, he is supported by Poland and the Czech Republic. Poland, which is also facing an Article 7 procedure against it by the European Commission, has vowed to protect Hungary, just as Hungary has vowed to protect Poland. So there is no way that the voting rights of either country can be removed, since the ultimate vote to do so requires unanimity. Orban also recently received the support of Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis and of the Italian Minister of the Interior, Matteo Salvini.

    These politicians have voiced support for Orban’s stance against immigration. But they also support his pragmatic approach to Russia. Salvini is a well-known critic of the Russia sanctions, and Italy has said they should end. Parts of the Austrian government agree, the Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl having recently had Putin as a personal guest of honor at her wedding, while the Vice-Chancellor, Heinz-Christian Strache, is well known for his pro-Russian and pro-Putin views. On the other hand, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has reassured critics that Austria is rooted in the EU and shares its stance towards Russia.

    The striking thing about Orban, and about his Central European allies (who incidentally include the Czech President Milos Zeman), is that they are from countries which, as Orban puts it, suffered greatly “under Russia” in the past. He is referring to the countries’ membership of the Warsaw Pact, and their subjection to communist rule, after World War II. In Hungary’s case, the suffering was especially violent because of the suppression of the 1956 revolution in Budapest by Soviet troops. Yet it is precisely these countries who today advocate a pragmatic relationship with Russia, while countries such as Britain, and even Germany, treat Russia as if it were still a communist dictatorship with the Cold War in full swing.

    The irony is all the greater because Orban personally played a key role – but one which is often forgotten by historians – in bringing about the end of Soviet rule in Central Europe. His speech in Heroes’ Square in Budapest on June 16, 1989 on the occasion of the re-burial of the leader of the 1956 uprising, Imre Nagy, was the first time anyone in the Warsaw Pact had publicly called for the withdrawal of Soviet troops. The very making of this speech showed that the old taboos – and, with them, the power of the communist dictatorship – had collapsed. This was two months before the Hungarian government opened its border with Austria, allowing tens of thousands of East Germans to cross into West Germany, and five months before the Berlin wall came down. Orban’s contribution to the chain reaction which led to these later events was therefore decisive.

    There is only one explanation for this apparent paradox that some former anti-communist Central European leaders are now pro-Russian. Unlike their Western colleagues, who were never directly affected by communist rule, the states of the former Warsaw Pact understand not only that Russia is no longer the old USSR, having abandoned communism, but also that national identity, and pride in national identity, were the key to undoing communist rule in Central Europe and then in Russia itself. Orban’s 1989 speech was a patriotic appeal to Hungarians: it traced their battle for national freedom back to 1848. Freedom and national pride went hand in hand.

    As in Poland, where not only national identity but also religion played a key role in the downfall of communism, Hungarians (and Czechs and many others) now see with dismay that same national identity which freed them from communism under attack from the new commissars in Brussels. This is because the approach in Western Europe is directly the opposite. Pride in one’s nation is considered backward and dangerous, largely because national pride was irredeemably damaged during the war.

    The fact is that all the early member states of the EU were defeated in the war, whether by the Germans or by the Allies. During the process of defeat, national pride was ruined, either through the barbarism of Nazism and fascism or through various forms of nationalist collaboration with it. All these stain the national record. Only in Britain was national pride the key to victory; for everyone else it was the key to defeat. (The only partial exception to this rule is France, which retained some sense of national pride after the war. But, in later decades, the memory of the Gaullist resistance was effaced by a stronger memory of the national shame of Vichy.)

    Because of this, Western European states have adopted the EU ideology, according to which European history before the creation of the EU was nothing but wars between nation-states. Indeed, national rivalry was the key to these wars. In order for there to be peace, it is argued, Europe’s nation-states must be dissolved in a supranational entity. Germany has accomplished the task of making a clean slate of its national history in a more complete manner than any other European state but the other countries share parts, sometimes large parts, of this same German historiographical and political model.

    To be sure, the states of Central Europe have skeletons in their own cupboards concerning the war. Hungary was an ally of Nazi Germany throughout it. But the more recent memory of national victory over communism has rekindled national pride, whereas the Western European states have not enjoyed any comparable victory and so they instead put all their faith in the post-national and post-modern European project. Moreover, whereas Communism was largely rejected as an ideology by the people living under it – including in Soviet Russia – the ideology of liberalism has penetrated very deeply into the Western European consciousness, to the extent even of extinguishing national sentiment. Liberalism has been more successful in this regard than communism was, even though orthodox Marxism also called for an end to the nation-state.

    This East-West fracture is a major ideological dividing line inside the European Union. The vote in the European Parliament last week, in which over two thirds of MEPs ganged up on a member state in the name of their biased interpretation of “the rule of law,” was a historic moment which brought into the open the depth of this radically different approach to politics and history. Opposite attitudes to Russia are also part of this division. As Marx said, history repeats itself, first as tragedy and then as farce, as we saw in Strasbourg last week: the European Union, like the Soviet Union, will in due course discover that national identity is stronger even than its political ideology.

  • Animated Map: Visualizing 2,400 Years Of European History

    The history of Europe is breathtakingly complex. While there are rare exceptions like Andorra and Portugal, which have had remarkably static borders for hundreds of years, as Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley points out, jurisdiction over portions of the continent’s landmass has changed hands innumerable times.

    Today’s video comes to us from YouTube channel Cottereau, and it provides an informative overview of European history starting from 400 BC. Empires rise and fall, invasions sweep across the continent, and the borders of modern countries slowly begin to take shape (with the added bonus of an extremely dramatic instrumental).

    Below are nine highlights and catalysts that shifted Europe’s geographic dividing lines:

    146 BC – A YEAR OF CONQUEST

    146 BC was a year of conquest and expansion for the Roman Republic. The fall of Carthage left the Romans in control of territory in North Africa, and the ransack and destruction of the Greek city-state of Corinth also kickstarted an era of Roman influence in that region. These decisive victories paved the way for the Roman Empire’s eventual domination of the Mediterranean.

    117 AD – PEAK ROMAN EMPIRE

    The peak of the Roman Empire is one of the more dramatic moments in European history. At its height, under Trajan, the Roman Empire was a colossal 1.7 million square miles (quite a feat in an era without motorized vehicles and modern communication tools). This enormous empire remained mostly intact until 395, when it was irreparably split into Eastern and Western regions.

    370 AD – THE ARRIVAL OF THE HUNS

    Spurred on by severe drought conditions in Central Asia, the Huns reached Europe and found a Roman Empire weakened by currency debasement, economic instability, overspending, and increasing incursions from rivals along its borders. The Huns waged their first attack on the Eastern Roman Empire in 395, but it was not until half a century later – under the leadership of Attila the Hun – that hordes pushed deeper into Europe, sacking and razing cities along the way. The Romans would later get their revenge when they attacked the quarreling Goths and Huns, bouncing the latter out of Central Europe.

    1241 – THE MONGOL INVASION

    In the mid-13th century, the “Golden Horde” led by grandsons of Genghis Khan, roared into Russia and Eastern Europe sacking cities along the way. Facing invasion from formidable Mongol forces, central European princes temporarily placed their regional conflicts aside to defend their territory. Though the Mongols were slowly pushed eastward, they loomed large on the fringes of Europe until almost the 16th century.

    1362 – LITHUANIA

    Today, Lithuania is one of Europe’s smallest countries, but at its peak in the middle ages, it was one of the largest states on the continent. A pivotal moment for Lithuania came after a decisive win at the Battle of Blue Waters. This victory stifled the expansion of the Golden Horde, and brought present-day Ukraine into its sphere of influence.

    1648 – KLEINSTAATEREI

    The end of the Holy Roman Empire highlights the extreme territorial fragmentation in Germany and neighboring regions, in an era referred to as Kleinstaaterei.

    Even as coherent nation states formed around it, the Holy Roman Empire and its remnents wouldn’t coalesce until Germany rose from the wreckage of the Franco-Prussian War in 1871. Unification helped position Germany as a major power, and by 1900 the country had the largest economy in Europe.

    1919 – THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE

    The Ottoman Empire – a fixture in Eastern Europe for hundreds of years – was in its waning years by the beginning of the 20th century. The empire had ceded territory in two costly wars with Italy and Balkan states, and by the time the dust cleared on WWI, the borders of the newly minted nation of Turkey began at the furthest edge of continental Europe.

    1942 – EXPANDING AND CONTRACTING GERMANY

    At the furthest extent of Axis territory in World War II, Germany and Italy controlled a vast portion of continental Europe. After the war, however, Germany again became fragmented into occupation zones – this time, overseen by the United States, France, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union. Germany would not be made whole again until 1990, when a weakening Soviet Union loosened its grip on East Germany.

    1991 – SOVIET DISSOLUTION

    In the decades following WWII, Europe’s geopolitical boundaries remained relatively stable – that is, until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Almost overnight, the country’s entire western border splintered into independent nations. When the dust settled, there were 15 breakaway republics, six of which were in Europe.

    Bonus: If you liked the video above, be sure to watch this year-by-year account of who ruled territories across Europe.

  • The 'Adults In The White House' Trying To Save US From Trump Are Just As Dangerous As He Is

    Authored by Patrick Cockburn via Counterpunch.org,

    Before his election as president it was understandable that Donald Trump’s critics should have vastly underestimated his ability as a politician. It is much less excusable – and self-destructive to effective opposition to Trump – that they should go on underestimating him almost two years after his victory.

    Every week there are more revelations showing the Trump administration to be chaotic, incompetent and corrupt. The latest are the anonymous op-ed in The New York Times in which one of his own senior officials’ claims to be working against him and Bob Woodward’s book portraying the White House as a sort of human zoo.

    The media gleefully reports these bombshells in the hope that they will finally sink, or at least inflict serious damage, on the Good Ship Trump. This has been the pattern since he announced his presidential candidacy, but it never happens. Political commentators, overwhelmingly anti-Trump, express bafflement at his survival but, such is their loathing and contempt for him that they do not see that they are dealing with an exceptionally skilled politician.

    His abilities may be instinctive or drawn from his vast experience as a showman on television. Priority goes to dominating the news agenda regardless of whether the publicity is good or bad. Day after day, hostile news outlets like The New York Times and CNN lead on stories about Trump to the exclusion of all else.

    The media does not do this unless they know their customers want it: Trump is an American obsession, even greater than Brexit in Britain. A friend of mine recently met a group of American folk singers touring the south coast of Ireland who told him that they had often pledged to each other that they would get through the day without mentioning Trump, but so far they had failed to do so.

    This tactic of dominating the news by deliberately headline-grabbing behaviour, regardless of the criticism it provokes, is not new but is much more difficult to carry out than it looks. Boris Johnson is currently trying to pull the same trick with outrageous references to “suicide vests” but his over-heated rhetoric feels contrived. MP David Lammy’s jibe about Johnson as “a pound-shop Donald Trump” is apt.

    Trump is never boring: it is a simple point and central to his success but is seldom given sufficient weight. During the presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton’s supporters complained that Trump got excessive amounts of free television time, while her speeches were ignored or were given inadequate attention.

    The reason was not any pro-Trump bias – quite the contrary given the political sympathies of most people in the media – but because her speeches were boring and his were not. He has the well-developed knack of always saying something the media cannot leave alone.

    An example of this is his tweeted retort this week to a claim by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon that he could “beat” Trump in a presidential election and is tough and smarter than him. This silly boast was not much of a news story, until Trump’s tweeted: “The problem with banker Jamie Dimon running for president is that he doesn’t have the aptitude or ‘smarts’ and is a poor public speaker and nervous mess – otherwise he is wonderful.”

    Not many politicians or journalists could put so much punching power into a single sentence.

    Trump is regarded with a peculiar mixture of fear and underestimation by opponents across the board from the Democratic Party leaders to the EU heads of state. They believe – rightly – that Trump is a monster and hope – wrongly – that this means he will one day implode. This would be deeply convenient for them all because, until this happens, they do not have to act themselves. Trump will hopefully pass away like a bad dream. There is no need for the EU leaders or prominent Democrats to devise and explain policies that would divide them.

    Sometimes this policy of sitting on your hands and doing nothing until your opponents make a mistake is the correct one. But it carries the grave risk of creating a vacuum of information that will be filled by your enemies. During the presidential election it was easy to deride Trump’s vague promises to bring factory jobs back to the US, but he did not have to say much about this because Hillary usually said nothing at all.

    Trump is at war with the institutions of the US government. This is unsurprising: US presidents have invariably been frustrated by the sense that they reign but do not rule. A convincing explanation for the fall of Richard Nixon is that different branches of the bureaucracy used Watergate to frustrate his grab for power and get rid of him.

    They may yet succeed in Trump’s case. Many Americans want to witness a sequel to Watergate with Trump in the starring role. But this is almost impossible to do without control of Congress and the ganging-up of bureaucrats against an elected president will not be palatable to a lot of voters.

    The anonymous senior White House official of the New York Times op-ed says that he is part of a group within the administration pledged to thwart “Mr Trump’s more misguided impulses”. This is the latest emergence of “adults in the room” who are going to prevent the US government abandoning policies essential to its existence.

    The problem is that these “adults” are promoting policies that are often just as dangerous as anything Trump has in mind, if not more so. For instance, Trump has periodically said that the US ought to pull its 2,000 troops, which are backed by the US Air Force, out of northeast Syria. This would be a sensible move to negotiate because the US has a weak hand in Syria and could not determine the course of events without a full scale war.

    Trump is not “an isolationist” in the classic sense, but his instinct is to avoid wars or situations that might lead to one. Talking to Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin may not produce anything very substantial, but it does make war less, rather than more, likely.

    Yet, such is the bitterness of divisions in the US, that liberal commentators were furiously denouncing Trump as a traitor for meeting either man in terms that Senator McCarthy would have recognised 70 years ago.

    It is easy to sympathise with their rage. Trump is the worst thing to happen to the US since the Civil War, but miscalculating his strengths and weaknesses is not the way to deal with him. His near miraculous ability to survive repeated scandals reminds me of what the diplomat, politician and writer Conor Cruise O’Brien wrote about Charlie Haughey, the Irish political leader, who was notorious for surviving against the odds in similar challenging circumstances. “If I saw Mr Haughey buried at midnight at a crossroads with a stake driven through his heart,” wrote O’Brien, “I should continue to wear a clove of garlic around my neck, just in case.”

  • Bill Gates: The Threat Of A "Disease X" Global Pandemic Is "Very Real"

    When it comes to global health policy, Bill Gates has never been known for subtlety. So it’s hardly surprising that his charitable foundation’s latest report on the greatest challenges facing mankind might make some readers want to lock themselves in an indefinite quarantine.

    Gates

    Readers familiar with Gates’ previous warnings about the rising risk of a global pandemic will recognize the top three risks: antibiotic resistance, governmental reluctance to fund health-care solutions and the next global contagion. The latter risk factor has become so universally feared by health professionals that the World Health Organization already has a name for it: “Disease X”. The likelihood of an explosive global pandemic breaking out in the relatively near future increases along with the population in the world’s poorest countries, which are presently experiencing explosive population growth even as birth rates in the developed world plummet. And if the world’s wealthiest countries don’t invest resources to combat these issues in Africa, South America and Asia now, it will be infinitely more expensive grappling with the consequences on the back-end, as Gates explained in an interview with the Telegraph.

    “We are not fully prepared for the next global pandemic,” he says. “The threat of the unknown pathogen – highly-contagious, lethal, fast-moving – is real. It could be a mutated flu strain or something else entirely. The Swine Flu and 2014 Ebola outbreaks underscored the threat.”

    The risks associated with the population boom in the poorest countries in Africa has long been treated as “the elephant in the room” by global policy makers. Even if one sets aside the risk of disease, the developing world must step up to monitor the economic impacts of rapidly increasing populations, confronting issues like political instability to ensure that the expansion will yield unbridled growth like similar periods in China and India.

    According to demographers projections, the population of Africa is set to explode to 4 billion by the end of the century.

    Population

    While the story includes few references to world leaders, Gates paused to praise UK Prime Minister Theresa May for her recent tour of Africa, during which she re-committed to UK aide spending… 

    Gates commends Theresa May’s recent Africa tour where she recommitted to Britain’s aid spending target of 0.7 per cent of gross national income. He says he has attempted to meet with Jeremy Corbyn, although so far failed, due to a schedule clash.

    …And tried what looked to be her first attempt at dancing.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Moving on from this talk of global pandemics, Gates spared a few moment to opine on how governments should approach social media. And in his view, they should step up and regulate it with a heavy hand.

    “They will step up in a pretty strong way to all those things. People who are super-successful need to be held to a very high standard. Some of that will lead to a very unfair personalisation as though these mistakes are somehow down to flaws in Mark’s character, or something like that. Mark knows he is in a position of responsibility and is trying to learn about this stuff.”

    We imagine Mark Zuckerberg will be thrilled to hear that.

  • Communist China Moves To Control Billions Through "Social Credit"

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    In a chilling but unsurprising move, Communist China seeks ultimate control over the population by introducing a scorecard which will supposedly keep the public in check. The big brother system will monitor all citizens 24/7 and keep a “score” of their activities.

    The Communist Party’s plan in China is for every one of its 1.4 billion citizens to be at the whim of a dystopian social credit system, and it’s on track to be fully operational by the year 2020. 

    According to News.com.au, an active pilot program has already seen millions of people each assigned a score out of 800. Those people will either reap the benefits of having a high score or suffer the consequences of a low social score. Depending on which end of the scale they sit, their behavior could see them punished.

    The data is combined with information collected from individuals’ government records, which include medical and educational, along with their financial and internet browsing histories. Overall scores can go up and down in “real time” dependent on the person’s behavior but they can also be affected by people they associate with.

    “If your best friend or your dad says something negative about the government, you’ll lose points too,” the ABC reports.  The Chinese will be assumed guilty by association and no longer able to speak out about their own oppression.

    Participation in the “social credit” system was first announced in 2014 and is mandatory. The government is attempting to control the actions of the public in a bid to reinforce the notion that “keeping trust is glorious and breaking trust is disgraceful,” according to a government document.

    “If people keep their promises they can go anywhere in the world,” said Tianjin general manager Jie Cong. For Jie, it’s black and white with no grey area.

    “If people break their promises they won’t be able to move an inch!”

    Penalties for a low score range from losing the right to travel by plane or train, social media account suspensions and being barred from government jobs, according to Business Insider. Chinese journalist Liu Hu is one of the millions who have already amassed a low social credit rating. Liu Hu was arrested, jailed and fined after he exposed official corruption.

     “The government regards me as an enemy,” Liu Hu told the ABC.

  • Trump Weighs In On The Single Worst Mistake In American History

    In a wide ranging interview with The Hill on Tuesday conducted in the Oval Office, President Trump was asked to give his take on the biggest mistake in American history. 

    Considering just how open-ended a question that is, it’s perhaps surprising that he merely went back less than a couple decades into the Bush presidency, though Trump’s base will certainly welcome it as it hearkens back to his “America First” foreign policy vision of the campaign trail. 

    “The worst single mistake ever made in the history of our country: going into the Middle East, by President Bush,” the president during his interview with Hill.TV.

    “Obama may have gotten them (U.S. soldiers) out wrong, but going in is to me the biggest single mistake made in the history of our country,” he said.

    Trump explained the reasoning behind this choice, and why it wasn’t something like the civil war or another defining and devastating event reaching far into American History. 

    “Because we spent $7 trillion in the Middle East. Now if you wanna fix a window some place they say, ‘oh gee, let’s not do it. Seven trillion, and millions of lives — you know, ‘cause I like to count both sides. Millions of lives,” the president explained.

    Some scholars and humanitarian groups estimate that over one million Iraqis were killed in the US invasion and occupation of Iraq starting in 2003. A 2008 Opinion Research Business (ORB) poll, for example, found that approximately 1.03 million people had died as a result of the war.

    “To me it’s the worst single mistake made in the history of our country. Civil war you can understand. Civil war, civil war. That’s different. For us to have gone into the Middle East, and that was just, that was a bad day for this country, I will tell you.”

    Various estimates on the Iraq war’s cost have put the total taxpayer bill as low as near $2 trillion, but none dispute that it is in the multiple trillions, and estimates will vary widely depending on if veteran care is factored into it. 

    The comments echo things Trump said on the campaign trail in 2016. For example during one of his first major foreign policy speeches then candidate Trump said, “I will never send our finest into battle unless necessary, and I mean absolutely necessary, and will only do so if we have a plan for victory with a capital V.” And referencing the famous quote of John Quincy Adams, he said during the same speech, “The world must know that we do not go abroad in search of enemies.”

    He had previously shocked pundits for being the first Republican nominee for president to trash George W. Bush’s decision to go to war in Iraq, and has more recently likened it to “throwing a big fat brick into a hornet’s nest”.

    All of this is a hopeful sign considering the extremely heightened and dangerous tensions over Syria this week, and given Trump seems to have vacillated between “bringing the troops home” and getting more involved. On Monday Trump hinted that a decision on the U.S. role in Syria is coming soon.

    Commenting on the over 2,000 troops now in Syria ostensibly as part of the “anti-ISIL” coalition campaign, Trump indicated this mission could end soon: “We’re very close to being finished with that job,” he said. He followed with: “And then we’re going to make a determination as to what we’re going to do.”

    We consider it a hopeful and a good sign that Trump is possibly revisiting his “America First” foreign policy pledges by identifying the Iraq War as the worst mistake in US history. 

     

  • What Really Happens When The SHTF Is Over (Spoiler Alert: Not What Most People Expect)

    Authored by ‘Selco’ via Daisy Luther’s Organic Prepper blog,

    When finally the SHTF was over, when peace came it was not like we imagined it.

    It was very different from what we imagined it while we were in the middle of the SHTF.

    It was different on many levels.

    When peace came we didn’t believe it.

    During the war, many ceasefires were signed, and many peace treaties, local or countrywide. Many times high delegations from the EU came to our country or in surrounding countries. They held long elaborate peace conferences with local politicians and tried to make some agreements.

    When the agreements were made and when we heard about it somehow, we hoped it could work. But it did not so the war continued.

    To add to those real conferences and treaties we also had raging misinformation and rumors about peace settlements and treaties that actually never happened. So after some time, and many “peace agreements”  while slaughter continued we simply kinda stop believing that it was going to happen.

    And then one day one of those treaties kinda worked.

    The war stopped.

    It was not like it just stopped immediately one day. But through agreements, the shooting stopped, and through a very complicated process (that in a way still lasts) the situation started to move to some new kind of “normal”.

    The fighting stopped, but since there were no real winners, it took time for some things.

    For example, for months you could not go into some parts of the country with the “wrong” license plate or sticker on your car or similar…

    We changed after the SHTF

    After prolonged living in the situation that we went through, people changed on many levels, and some of those changes are pretty much irreversible. What is even more important is that some of those changes are transferred to our children, to new generations.

    On the mental level, we learned during the collapse that it may be actually dangerous to hope. For example, when it came to peace we were disappointed many times, so people stop hoping, or at least lowered their expectations.

    Hope and hoping in dangerous and prolonged situations sounds and looks good, but in reality, it may blur your vision. It may push you to pay attention to things that are not so relevant for your immediate attention.

    One day you may find yourself hoping and dreaming so much that you fail to protect your family or obtain food or similar.

    It was weird but not hoping may help you to operate better every and each day by taking care of things that need your immediate attention (food, safety, security…). But on the other side, killing hope had a toll on our mental health, I think.

    Life without hope is not much of a quality life.

    So when peace came, there were whole bunch of people who forgot to feel things.

    They were conditioned to operate with a certain mental attitude in order to have the best chances of survival and no peace could change that, at least in the short term.

    For a lot of people, it did not change ever.

    It was not that peple were not happy because there was peace, but we lost a lot of “ourselves” in that SHTF, so we changed.

    You shoot, you run, you are afraid… you are cold and hungry or you are dirty and sweating for days and months…and then one day all stops and you can go and buy things in the shop.

    And you think, “I should be happy and yell and sing.” But somehow you are numb and think, “What was all this about and what I am supposed to do now?”

    How everyday life changed when the SHTF was over

    It took months for some things to get back to normal when it came to infrastructure.

    Electric lines in some regions were almost nonexistent anymore. Phone lines, sewage, water system… all that was destroyed or completely messed up. Some regions were so dirty for numerous reasons that diseases spread.

    Roads were “opened” but because the infrastructure was bad, the normal circulation of goods did not happen overnight. It took time.

    For example, it took some time for all the different goods come in, and prices slowly came back down to “normal”.

    For years there were regions and parts of the cities where it was dangerous to go because of mines. Even these days we have here every month or two someone killed because of an old land mine somewhere in the woods.

    Still, more than 20 years after everything.

    How people were different after surviving the SHTF

    People changed.

    For a pretty long period, things were handled between people with brute force, and to have a weapon was important like to breathe air.

    When peace came, that weapon was still with people, and attidude and old habits changed very slowly.

    Even today every respectable home has an assault weapon here, somewere hidden, but close at hand, even though it means 2 years in prison if you are caught.

    People learned to use weapons and to “solve” problems with them.

    From the point of survival, people learned a lot of good and useful things. I mean, you had a bunch of civilians who over the time learned to operate as a kind of military unit and to use different kinds of weapons, to recognize and use resources in our sourroundings that most people would not even notice.

    We learned to protect our homes or invade others if needed.

    At the same time, we learned also not to respect authority (goverment) because (very simplified)  authority will simply f*ck you when it benefits them to do so and you will be on your own.

    Police, goverment, law, become for a lot of people just words. They counted only on themselves because of the experience they went through.

    From the survivalist point of view, a lot of good things maybe. But from the point of a normal functional society, a lot of bad things.

    If you are a normal law-abiding citizen here, you are in the minority because most people simply use shortcuts in the corrupted society that war produced.

    As I said, it is somehow “generational knowledge” so it passed on young people, too. Especially when it comes to not respecting authority.

    Paradoxicaly living in a society like that is actually the recipe for a new SHTF. So at the end, it comes to a full circle. The SHTF that brought a corrupted society and people that are trying to survive in it by their own rules, will most probably bring another SHTF.

    What to expect after the SHTF ends

    After a real and prolonged SHTF, there is no coming back in a lot of things. Not when it comes to how you gonna feel, and actually what man (or woman) you are gonna be.

    There may be celebrations, fireworks and whatever, but you will not be the same person. Survival will teach you a lot of things. You will be prepared for a lot of things in future, but even if in your case society and system rebuilds into something good and positive you will still be changed. And some parts of you that were good will be missing.

    It is how it works. There are some skills and experiences you cannot gain without paying for them.

  • Wall Street Salaries Hit Highest Level Since Lehman

    Thanks to a wave of consolidation that has helped banks compensate for rock-bottom interest rates and tighter capital requirements, Wall Street’s pre-tax profit grew by a staggering 42% last year, according to an annual report from the New York State Office of the Comptroller. And individual bankers continue to reap the rewards: Case in point, the NYS report revealed –  amid a welter of coverage surrounding the 10th anniversary of the Lehman collapse – that the the average compensation for Wall Street employees climbed 13% last year to $422,500 last year. That’s the highest (inflation-adjusted) level since Lehman went belly-up in 2008, ushering the most acute phase of the financial crisis.

    Wall Street

    Financial services professionals still enjoy a higher average compensation than any other industry in New York State. Taxes on their compensation account for more than one-fifth of private-sector wages paid out in the state last year, despite employing only 5% of the state’s workers. And while the highest salaries were paid to workers toiling away in Manhattan skyscrapers, compensation for bankers based out on Long Island were nearly as high as their colleagues down town.

    The increase in total comp was largely driven by higher bonuses, with DiNapoli estimating that the bonuses increased by an average 17% to $184,200, the highest level in a decade.

    The average salary (including bonuses) in New York City’s securities industry increased by 13 percent to $422,500 in 2017, the highest since 2008 and the third-highest on record after adjusting for inflation. The securities industry has the highest average salary of any industry in New York City, and accounted for 21 percent of all private sector wages in 2017 even though it accounted for less than 5 percent of employment.

    The average salary in the securities industry on Long Island is nearly as high as in New York City. On Long Island, the average salary grew by 10 percent in 2017 to $389,000. The level was boosted by the presence of hedge-fund firms in Suffolk County, where the average salary was $599,800, the highest of any county in the nation.

    In March 2018, DiNapoli estimated that the average bonus for securities industry employees in New York City increased by 17 percent to $184,200. After adjusting for inflation, it was the highest average bonus in a decade and the fourth-highest on record. Bonuses accounted for an estimated 40 percent of securities industry wages in 2017, a larger share than in any other major industry in New York City.

    And while it’s too early to say for certain, data collected during the first half suggest that salaries and bonuses will continue to grow during 2018.

    Here’s a breakdown of the report’s highlights (courtesy of a press release from the NYS Comptroller’s Office):

    • Nearly one-quarter (24 percent) of securities industry workers in the city earned more than $250,000 in 2017, compared to 2.5 percent of the rest of the city’s workforce.
    • The disparity between average salaries in the city’s securities industry and the rest of the private sector peaked in 2007, when it was six times higher. The gap narrowed after the financial crisis but has remained at least 5 to 1 since 2010, with a ratio of 5.5 to 1 in 2017.
    • 62 percent of the industry’s employees live in the city, while 38 percent commute, which is the highest share of commuters in any major industry.
    • One-fifth of the work force commuted from New Jersey, 6 percent from Long Island and 6 percent from Westchester County. More than half (55 percent) of the commuters from Connecticut and 38 percent from Westchester earned more than $250,000 per year.
    • More than two-thirds of the city’s securities industry workers were male and nearly two-thirds were white. More than one-fifth were Asian; 13 percent were Black or Hispanic. One-third were immigrants, the majority from Asia and Europe.
    • DiNapoli estimates that tax collections attributable to the city’s securities industry grew by 29 percent to $4.2 billion in CFY 2018, the highest level in a decade. The growth resulted from large increases in profits, bonuses, and capital gains in calendar 2017, which were boosted by recent changes in the federal tax code and a 2008 federal law that required repatriation of deferred compensation held overseas by the end of 2017. The industry accounted for 7 percent of city tax collections in CFY 2018.
    • The average salary in the securities industry in New York state increased by 12 percent in 2017 to $403,100, the highest since 2008 and the third-highest on record after adjusting for inflation. New York had the highest average salary of any state in the nation, reflecting the concentration of highly compensated employees, such as chief executive officers, in New York City.
    • DiNapoli estimates that tax payments attributable to the securities industry in State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2017-18 rose by 7 percent to $14 billion, the highest level in a decade. As a result, the industry accounted for nearly one-fifth (18 percent) of state tax collections in SFY 2017-18.
    • DiNapoli estimates that each job gained or lost in the industry leads to the creation or loss of three additional jobs in other sectors.
    • After adjusting for inflation, pretax profits in 2017 were the highest since 2012 and profits in the first half of 2018 were the highest since 2011.

    * * *

    Bankers’ rising pay is an anomaly in contemporary American society, where wages for the average worker have been stagnating for years (though the August AHE print inspired some optimism, though the stirrings of inflationary pressure highlighted by that data have yet to be confirmed).

    It’s just the latest piece of evidence pointing to the hollowing out of the middle class, as nearly all of the wage growth documented since 2009 has occurred in the extreme lower- and higher-end of the wage range.

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Today’s News 19th September 2018

  • Norway Officials Admit They Knew Nothing About Libya But Joined Regime Change Efforts Anyway

    A new official report produced by the Norwegian government illustrates the continuing absurdity of NATO expansion and foreign adventurism in places very far away from the “North Atlantic” explicit in the name North Atlantic Treaty Organization places like Afghanistan, Libya, Ukraine or Syria. 

    Top Norwegian officials have now admitted they “had very limited knowledge” of events unfolding in Libya during 2010 and 2011, prior to NATO’s military intervention on behalf of anti-Gaddafi rebels a war that resulted in regime change and a failed state ruled by competing governments and extremist militias to this day. Norway enthusiastically joined the US, UK, and French led bombing of the country initiated in March 2011 even knowing full well its military knew next to nothing of what was unfolding on the ground. 

    But what did decision-makers have to go on? Consider this absurd admission from the official report“In such situations, decision-makers often rely on information from media and other countries,” the report reads.

    Battle for Sirte, Libya after it was bombed by NATO jets. Via EPA

    The commission that produced the report was chaired by former Foreign Minister Jan Petersen, and ultimately concluded that politicians in Oslo dragged the nation into the US-led bombing campaign with no regard for what could come next. 

    The commission report states that there were “no written sources” that so much as attempted to assess the nature of the conflict Norway was about to join. The officials failed to “assess the type of conflict Norway was taking part in” it finds

    NATO’s name for the operation was the US code name ‘Operation Odyssey Dawn,’ and Norway flew 596 strike missions during the first five months of the NATO intervention, dropping 588 bombs on Libyan targets, according to the report. Norway had provided six F-16 fighter jets and its pilots were reported to have conducted 10 percent of all coalition strikes against pro-Gaddafi forces.

    Norway’s former Center Party leader Liv Signe Navarsete said of the final report: “When you look at what happened next, with Libya becoming a hotspot of terrorism, this is not a decision to be proud of.”

    The war had been sold to the European public on “humanitarian” grounds and included sensational atrocity stories, many which were later proven false, painting Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi as an irrational homicidal maniac.

    One notable story explicitly promoted by the State Department as well as US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice was the Viagra-fueled mass rape story, which claimed that Gaddafi had supposedly supplied his troops with Viagra in order to unleash sexual terrorism on the civilian population. Amnesty International and other human rights investigators later the proved the story completely false

    Some Norwegian politicians now claim the country was hoodwinked into another US-led regime change operation similar to the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003. However, considering European leaders had the glaringly obvious example of Iraq and the lies it was built on so recent in history, this appears yet more excuse making designed to evade public responsibility. 

    Libya has long been forgotten in Western mainstream media, but has come back into headlines as a small civil war has lately erupted within areas under control of the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. Since Gaddafi’s overthrow the country has been fought over by three (and at times up to four) competing governments while the streets are ruled by Islamist militias, including in some areas ISIS terrorists.

    According to a CNN report last year, open air slave markets have since come into existence as Libya remains largely lawless and as a once stable national infrastructure and economy has crumbled. 

  • Sweden: Anti-Immigration Party Becomes Kingmaker

    Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

    • Swedish police received more than 2,300 reports of potential crimes linked to this year’s election, including voter intimidation and threats of violence against property or persons. An international team of observers found irregularities in 46% of the polling stations visited. The team expressed particular concern over the lack of secrecy in voting. Swedish authorities allow more than one voter (normally from the same family) to enter the polling booth together, ostensibly to ensure that the more literate family member can assist the less literate ones to correctly fill in the ballot paper.

    • “We are concerned about the significant level of family voting where women, older voters and the infirm can be guided or even instructed how to vote by another family member… We feel this may be a way of suppressing some voters from freely choosing their own choice.” – Statement on the Swedish election from Democracy Volunteers,election observers.

    • With tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of migrants receiving welfare payments without having made any contributions, Sweden’s current welfare system seems destined to collapse, according to Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson.

    In Swedish elections, each party has separate ballot papers with the party name prominently displayed. The picking of ballots takes place in public, so anyone present can observe which party’s ballot paper the voter will choose. As a result, some voters may have felt intimidated and reluctant to publicly reveal that they wanted to vote for the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. (Image source: Jens O. Z. Ehrs/Wikimedia Commons)

    A strong showing by the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats in the Swedish elections on September 9 drained away so many votes from the establishment parties that the two main parliamentary blocs were left virtually tied and far short of a governing majority.

    The Sweden Democrats won 17.5% of the vote and emerged as the third-largest party in the country, according to the official election results released on September 16. The result, a 4.6% improvement on the 12.9% it won in 2014, placed the Sweden Democrats into a situation of holding the balance of power in the next parliament.

    Incumbent Prime Minister Stefan Löfven’s center-left Social Democrats came in first, with 28.3% of the vote — the party’s worst result in more than 100 years. The center-right Moderate party came in second, with 19.8% of the vote, a 3.5% drop from 2014.

    With eight political parties in the Swedish Parliament, the establishment parties traditionally have organized themselves into two rival parliamentary blocs: On the left, the Social Democrats and their allies garnered 40.7% of the vote. On the right, the Moderates and their allies won 40.3% of the vote.

    Although the Sweden Democrats are now in a position to play kingmaker in Parliament, the mainstream blocs have vowed not to cooperate with them because of their “nationalist” positions on immigration and the European Union.

    Sweden, with a largely homogenous population of around 10 million people, received nearly 500,000 asylum seekers from Africa, Asia and the Middle East since 2010. The arrival of so many overwhelmingly male migrants from different cultural and religious backgrounds has created massive social upheaval, including a surge in sexual assaults and gang violence in cities and towns across Sweden.

    The Sweden Democrats campaigned on a promise to curb immigration, restrict family reunifications, speed up deportations and crack down on migrant crime. Party leader Jimmie Åkesson also warned that mass migration poses an existential threat to Sweden’s social welfare system. With tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of migrants receiving welfare payments without having made any contributions, the current welfare system seems destined to collapse, he said.

    Pre-election polls showed that the anti-immigration message was resonating with Swedish voters.

    A YouGov poll published on September 5 — just four days before the election — showed that support for the Sweden Democrats was at 24.8%, compared to 23.8% for the Social Democrats and 16.5% for the Moderates. In other words, the poll suggested that the Sweden Democrats had become the largest party in Sweden.

    Observers have proffered several theories to explain the disconnect between the polls and the final election results. Some commentators have pointed to efforts by the mainstream parties to portray the Sweden Democrats as “far right,” “racist,” and “neo-Nazi” due to the party’s supposedly “nationalist” and “populist” stance on immigration. The stigma of voting for the Sweden Democrats may have given some voters pause.

    During a televised debate in October 2016, for example, Prime Minister Löfven called the Sweden Democrats “a Nazi party, a racist party.” He also claimed that “swastikas are still in use at their meetings.” The Sweden Democrats accused Löfven of slander and threatened to report him to the Parliament’s Constitutional Committee. Jonas Millard, the party’s representative on that committee, said:

    “When Sweden’s prime minister claims that the Sweden Democrats are a Nazi party, it is not just a lie, but also completely lacking in understanding of history and lacking in respect for all those millions of people who have been exposed to real Nazism.”

    Löfven later relented and said that his words had been taken out of context. Since then, however, Löfven has repeatedly accused the Sweden Democrats of having links to Nazism, even though Åkesson, who became party leader in 2005, has applied a zero-tolerance policy toward racism and has expelled members suspected of extremism.

    A day before the September 9, 2018 election, Löfven again branded the Sweden Democrats as racist:

    “We are not going to retreat one millimeter in the face of hatred and extremism wherever it shows itself.

    “Again, and again, and again, they show their Nazi and racist roots, and they are trying to destroy the European Union at a time when we need that co-operation the most.”

    Meanwhile, the Social Democrats invested eight million Swedish krona ($850,000; €770,000) of taxpayer money to encourage voter participation among migrants. That strategy appears to have paid off: in Stockholm’s Rinkeby district, where nine out of ten residents are immigrants, the Social Democrats received 77% of the vote while the Sweden Democrats won only 3%.

    A similar pattern took place in Sweden’s five dozen other no-go zones (Swedish police euphemistically refer to them as “vulnerable areas”), although a detailed analysis of the election results by the Swedish-Czech author Katerina Janouch and her colleague Peter Lindmark show that the Sweden Democrats are making gains among migrants, especially among women who are concerned about rampant crime and the imposition of Islamic sharia law.

    Others believe that election fraud may have benefited the mainstream parties at the expense of the Sweden Democrats. It remains unclear how widespread voter irregularities were, and what if any impact they may have had on the final election results. The Swedish police, however, received more than 2,300 reports of potential crimes linked to this year’s election. The complaints include voter intimidation, including threats of violence against property or persons.

    Separately, the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten), the central authority responsible for conducting elections, received more than 400 complaints of alleged voter fraud, and prosecutors are now investigating possible crimes in connection with the election, according to the newspaper Aftonbladet.

    An international team of 25 election observers, “Democracy Volunteers,” deployed throughout polling stations in Stockholm, Malmö, Gothenburg, Uppsala and Västerås — in total, the team observed over 250 polling stations across these locations — found irregularities in 46% of the stations visited.

    The team expressed particular concern over the lack of secrecy in voting. In Sweden, each party has separate ballot papers with the party name prominently displayed, and voters pick the party-specific ballot of their choice from a stand inside the polling station.

    The picking of ballot papers takes place in public, so anyone present can observe which party’s ballot paper the voter will choose. As a result, some voters may have felt intimidated and reluctant to publicly reveal that they wanted to vote for the Sweden Democrats.

    The election observers also criticized family voting, a practice in which Swedish electoral authorities allow more than one voter (normally from the same family) to enter the polling booth together, ostensibly to ensure that the more literate family member can assist the less literate ones to correctly fill in the ballot paper.

    The election observers concluded:

    “We are concerned about the significant level of family voting where women, older voters and the infirm can be guided or even instructed how to vote by another family member….

    “A key aspect of voting is that a voter should have their individual right to cast their own vote independently and without the interference, or even knowledge of another voter.

    “We feel this may be a way of suppressing some voters from freely choosing their own choice without the knowledge of others and we would recommend that the Swedish election authorities look at this as part of their own review in due course.”

    In a study entitled, “Is Voting in Sweden Secret,” Jørgen Elklit of the Department of Political Science at Aarhus University wrote that family voting is a long-standing problem in Sweden and appears to be especially prevalent in immigrant communities:

    “This type of help to disadvantaged voters obviously also puts repressed family members in a complicated situation, if they want to vote differently from their repressors. Family voting was rather common in the former Soviet Union and in Eastern Europe….

    “It was very surprising (almost unbelievable) to read in the … election observation report from the 2014 Swedish elections … that the observers noted a considerable amount of family voting in Stockholm. There are … indications that this phenomenon is primarily seen in polling districts with relatively many voters of non-Swedish background.”

    Other election irregularities include:

    • In Botkyrka, the Moderates party was offered 3,000 votes by local Muslim leaders in exchange for a construction permit to build a mosque. The party waited until two days before the election to reject the offer. Public prosecutors are now probing whether the offer was a criminal offense.

    • In Degerfors, a Social Democrat politician allegedly offered to pay voters 500 Swedish krona ($55; €50) in exchange for their votes. In the same town, a Social Democrat politician allegedly followed voters into a polling station, and then accompanied them to the ballot box. The politician, who has not been named, is being investigated for improperly influencing voters.

    • In Eda, a Social Democrat politician allegedly helped voters fill in their ballots.

    • In Falu, hundreds of ballots were invalidated because they were delivered late by the postal service.

    • In Filipstad, the Moderates party filed a complaint with election authorities after men were observed entering the polling station with women, picking the ballot papers for them and then following them to the ballot box to ensure that they voted for the Social Democrats. The Election Committee Chairperson in Filipstad, Helene Larsson Saikoff, herself a Social Democrat, said that she did not see any problem with the practice of family voting: “It is up to the voter if she wants to be accompanied by her husband or some good friend.”

    • In Gothenburg, the second-largest city in Sweden, some polling stations excluded ballot papers for the Sweden Democrats.

    • In Heby, a recount of votes resulted in significant differences between the results on election night. When asked how this could be, the chairman of the electoral committee in Heby, Rickert Olsson blamed the “human factor” which was due to “fatigue.”

    • In Märsta, poll workers advised voters not to seal their ballot envelopes. Sweden Democrats said that the envelopes could have been tampered with.

    Elsewhere, the newspaper Metro reported that ballot papers for the Sweden Democrats were stolen from the Swedish embassies in Berlin, London and Madrid, thereby making it impossible for Swedish “expats” in those areas to vote for the Sweden Democrats.

    “In all the election observations I have been on, I have never seen a choice as undemocratic as the one in Sweden,” said Danish MP Michael Aastrup Jensen, a veteran election observer who monitored the Swedish election in a private capacity. “It is far from the European standard.”

    Similar allegations of voter fraud surfaced in 2014 election. At the time, The Sweden Report wrote:

    “For starters, a number of mailmen have officially protested delivering voting cards from the Sweden Democrats (SD), the third-largest party in the country, because they do not agree with the politics of the party….

    “There are several reports from Stockholm, Gothenburg, Laholm and Halmstad where the envelopes from SD have clearly been opened and resealed. The content has been removed or in some cases replaced with voting cards from other parties….

    “Other irregularities against SD includes stolen voting cards at the pre-voting locations, and in one case a more advanced scheme: Someone had switched SD municipality voting cards with those of a neighboring municipality, making it very easy to cast an invalid vote.

    “As if that wasn’t enough, there’s the risk of tampering by the election administrators themselves. In the May election for the EU-parliament, a noted case involved a vote counter openly debating whether to simply throw away the stack of SD votes on Facebook.”

    Meanwhile, information about an official EU report, which concluded that Sweden has the worst border controls in the European Union, was allegedly kept from voters until after the elections were overaccording to the newspaper Expressen.

    The report warned that Swedish border guards are poorly trained and lack basic knowledge about how to detect counterfeit passports and other travel documents used by fake asylum seekers and returning jihadis. The report said that the problem is especially acute at Stockholm’s Arlanda Airport, the main airport in Sweden, and recommended that Frontex, the EU border control authority, be deployed to help Sweden to secure its external border.

    Several border control officers interviewed by Expressen said that officials at the Ministry of Justice deemed the report to be “politically explosive” and that it “should therefore be kept secret until the election was completed.” Justice Minister Morgan Johansson denied the accusations.

    Some observers argued that the Social Democrats managed to eke out a success in the 2018 election only by adopting some of the immigration proposals advocated by the Sweden Democrats. In May 2018, for example, Prime Minister Löfven, in an effort to stanch the bleeding of votes, announced a plan to tighten asylum rules, improve border controls and cut welfare benefits for migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected.

    Others noted that by making the election primarily about immigration, and by forcing the established parties to harden their policies on asylum, the Sweden Democrats emerged as the actual winners.

    The leader of the Sweden Democrats, Jimmie Åkesson, addressing the Danish People’s Party’s annual meeting in Herning, Denmark on September 15, said it would be impossible for the other parties in Sweden to shut his party out of influence in the negotiations to form the next government:

    “They make every effort to form a new government without giving us influence. But it will be impossible to keep us out. The sooner they realize it, the faster we will avoid chaos.”

    The scale of the challenge facing Sweden is daunting. A recent study by the Pew Research Center estimated that even if all immigration were immediately to stop, the proportion of Muslims in Sweden would still rise to more than 11% of the overall population by 2050. A medium migration scenario places Sweden’s Muslim population at 20.5% in 30 years; a high migration scenario places the Muslim population at 30.6%.

  • US-Indian Relations: Trump Gets A Unique Partner For America First

    Authored by Melkulangara Bhadrakumar via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The inaugural meeting of the foreign and defence ministers of India and the United States in a new “2+2” format on September 6 in New Delhi assumed added significance as an attempt by the Trump administration to translate its Indo-Pacific vision outlined in the National Security Strategy (NSS) of last December.

    The NSS had explicitly singled out Russia and China as “revisionist” powers that “challenge American power, influence and interests.” Equally, it ascribed a pivotal role to India in the Indo-Pacific. The “2+2” deliberations fleshed out these two templates.

    For the first time in the post-Cold War era, the US has inserted itself into the “time-tested” relationship between India and Russia. Demolition of Indian-Russian partnership has been a hidden agenda of the US’ regional policy since the 1990s but it surged in an overt and abrasive form last week.

    This shift from an aspirational approach to intrusive approach can be seen in the backdrop of the deterioration of US-Russia relations and the probability that tensions are unlikely to dissipate in a foreseeable future. The US sanctions against Russian defence sectors have been enacted in the full knowledge that India would be an acutely affected party. The US sanctions laws against Russia are acting like the Damocles’ sword to wear down India’s resistance to rollback in ties with Russia.

    A similar US assault on India-Russia energy cooperation can be expected soon, which is another promising area for US exports to India. Besides, the US is also threatening to sanction Russia’s financial sector. Clearly, what the US is seeking goes far beyond a reset or atrophy in the Indian-Russian relationship. It aims at nothing less than draining the contents of the “Special Privileged Strategic Partnership” between India and Russia and make it an empty shell. Yet, partnership with Russia has been historically an anchor sheet of India’s strategic autonomy.

    Indeed, it becomes a sad reflection of the huge inroads the US has made through the recent decade since the signing of the 2008 US-Indian nuclear deal to breach India’s strategic autonomy. Put differently, weakening of the India-Russia relations is an imperative need for Washington to hustle India on the path of becoming its key ally in the Indo-Pacific. Such a profound shift in the US approach can only be understood in terms of the strategic importance and the sense of urgency that the NSS attaches to the Indo-Pacific region.

    The NSS ranks the Indo-Pacific as a strategically more vital area than the Middle East (which has been the principal domain so far of the US’ strategic attention.) The NSS prioritizes the “Quad” (quadrilateral alliance of the US, Japan, Australia and India) more emphatically than even Washington’s transatlantic leadership as a platform of the US’ global strategies. Washington intends to checkmate China, which the NSS has portrayed as the US’ competitor who poses challenge to its world leadership and the international order.

    Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy appeals to the Indian audience alongside the NSS’ grand designation of India as a “leading global power”. Delhi exulted over the NSS document: “We appreciate the importance given to India-United States relationship… the two responsible democracies…share the same objectives.” To be sure, the Trump administration has rekindled a decade-old Indian dream of being a “counterweight” to China.

    An influential section of India’s foreign-policy elite remains wedded to the notion that fundamentally, the US helped China’s rise in the Cold War era and that India is similarly well positioned to garner American benevolence in the emergent New Cold War conditions. The “2+2” highlighted that the US has astutely tapped into the Indian elite’s “unipolar predicament”.

    In the recent period since the NSS was announced, the Trump administration has declared India as a “Major Defence Partner”, opening the door for the sale of more advanced and sensitive military technologies by American vendors at par with the US’ closest allies and partners, and fostering convergence of interests with India on a range of issues like maritime security, domain awareness and so on.  

    Without doubt, this has been a “win-win” strategy for Washington. The signing of a Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) at the “2+2” testifies to it. The COMCASA is modeled on agreements Washington has with its most important NATO and treaty allies. It is a big leap forward in developing “inter-operability” between the militaries of the US, its allies, and India, which in turn transforms India into a front-line state in the US’ military-strategic offensive against China in the Indo-Pacific. Another such “foundational agreement”, Logistics Exchange Memorandum Agreement (signed in 2016 and operationalized last year), has already opened India’s air bases and naval ports to routine use by US warplanes and battleships for refueling and resupply.

    The “2+2” joint statement announced that India and US will stage their first-ever joint exercise involving all three branches of India’s military next year, and that they are setting up “hotlines” between their respective foreign and defence ministries “to help maintain regular high-level communication on emerging developments.” It commits the two countries to increased bilateral, trilateral and quadrilateral military-security cooperation. On the other hand, COMCASA is expected to pave the way for a major boost in Indian purchases of US weaponry, which is likely to begin with India’s procurement of armed naval drones for anti-submarine warfare.

    All this works splendidly for the US. In sum, by playing on India’s geopolitical apprehensions regarding China’s rise as a global power and playing astutely on India’s own great-power ambitions, US is promoting on the one hand its business interests in the Indian market while on the other hand also locking India into its Indo-Pacific alliance system against China as well as progressively undermining the India-Russia “time-tested” relationship.

    It’s a “win-win” strategy all the way. The Trump White House has drawn encouragement from the “2+2” to push the idea of concluding a free-trade agreement with India. Informal conversations have already begun. 

    Trump appears bullish that when push comes to shove, the present Indian government will bend to Washington’s diktats. Indeed, the Trump administration can count on influential back channels, too. It is no secret that the upper caste Indian Diaspora in the US has close links with the Hindu nationalist groups that mentor Modi government.

    Thus, it comes as no surprise that Trump sees Prime Minister Modi as a unique partner for his “America First” project. Trump will skip the East Asia Summit in Singapore in November but is signaling interest in Modi’s invitation to him to be the guest of honor at India’s National Day celebrations in January. 

  • Trump: Expect Decision On US Role In Syria Soon; Calls Russian Plane Downing "Very Sad Thing"

    President Trump indicated that a decision on the future of US policy in Syria is coming soon in remarks made at a press conference with his Polish counterpart.

    Speaking alongside President Andrzej Duda, Trump said the Monday night downing of a Russian maritime surveillance plane by accidental Syrian friendly fire was “a very sad thing”. Trump’s remarks did not include criticism of Putin, and seemed to signal regret over Monday night’s dramatic escalation over Syria after a massive Israeli attack. 

    Earlier in the day Tuesday, Russia had pointed the finger at Israel for purposefully provoking the mishap, something Israel has since denied in a military statement that ultimately put blame on Assad, Iran, and Hezbollah.

    Trump also said that the US fight against ISIS in Syria could end soon: “We’re very close to being finished with that job,” he said of the Pentagon mission against ISIS.

    He followed with: “And then we’re going to make a determination as to what we’re going to do.”

    This follows a major Washington Post story two weeks ago, quoting administration insiders, that described a significant policy shift away from Trump’s previously voiced desire to “bring to the troops home” from Syria. 

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    Only months ago the president expressed a desire “to get out” and pull the over 2,000 publicly acknowledged American military personnel from the country; but the new report said that Trump has approved “an indefinite military and diplomatic effort in Syria”.

    The report revealed that “the administration has redefined its goals to include the exit of all Iranian military and proxy forces from Syria, and establishment of a stable, nonthreatening government acceptable to all Syrians and the international community.”

    But is it possible that Monday’s attack involving missiles flying over the Mediterranean and an “accidental” downing of a Russian plane and 15 dead Russian crew members might have jolted Trump back to his prior position of wanting to withdraw from the Syrian quagmire? 

    Monday’s events also came just after Russian President Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that a demilitarized zone in Idlib will be formed by October 15. As part of the deal Russia and Syria have reportedly called off the major offensive on Idlib, as Turkey has vowed to facilitate the withdrawal of the al-Qaeda groups in control of Idlib to Jisr al-Shughour near the Turkish border. 

    The Russia-Turkey deal over Idlib has at least temporarily deflated US threats that it could intervene should Syria launch a brutal assault on the province something the US promised to do especially if chemical weapons are used. 

    Is it possible that Trump will take the window of opportunity to get out of Syria, and walk back from prior US threats?

  • Suspending The Constitution: In America Today, The Government Does Whatever It Wants

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “That was when they suspended the Constitution. They said it would be temporary. There wasn’t even any rioting in the streets. People stayed home at night, watching television, looking for some direction. There wasn’t even an enemy you could put your finger on.”—Margaret Atwood, The Handmaid’s Tale

    We can pretend that the Constitution, which was written to hold the government accountable, is still our governing document.

    The reality we must come to terms with, however, is that in the America we live in today, the government does whatever it wants, freedom be damned.

    “We the people” have been terrorized, traumatized, and tricked into a semi-permanent state of compliance by a government that cares nothing for our lives or our liberties.

    The bogeyman’s names and faces may change over time (terrorism, the war on drugs, illegal immigration, etc.), but the end result remains the same: our unquestioning acquiescence to anything the government wants to do in exchange for the phantom promise of safety and security.

    Thus, in the so-called named of national security, the Constitution has been steadily chipped away at, undermined, eroded, whittled down, and generally discarded to such an extent that what we are left with today is but a shadow of the robust document adopted more than two centuries ago.

    Most of the damage, however, has been inflicted upon the Bill of Rights—the first ten amendments to the Constitution—which historically served as the bulwark from government abuse. 

    A recitation of the Bill of Rights—set against a backdrop of government surveillance, militarized police, SWAT team raids, asset forfeiture, eminent domain, overcriminalization, armed surveillance drones, whole body scanners, stop and frisk searches (all sanctioned by Congress, the White House, the courts and the like)—would understandably sound more like a eulogy to freedoms lost than an affirmation of rights we truly possess.

    Here is what it means to live under the Constitution today.

    The First Amendment is supposed to protect the freedom to speak your mind, assemble and protest nonviolently without being bridled by the government. It also protects the freedom of the media, as well as the right to worship and pray without interference. In other words, Americans should not be silenced by the government. To the founders, all of America was a free speech zone.

    Despite the clear protections found in the First Amendment, the freedoms described therein are under constant assault. Increasingly, Americans are being arrested and charged with bogus “contempt of cop” charges such as “disrupting the peace” or “resisting arrest” for daring to film police officers engaged in harassment or abusive practices. Journalists are being prosecuted for reporting on whistleblowers. States are passing legislation to muzzle reporting on cruel and abusive corporate practices. Religious ministries are being fined for attempting to feed and house the homeless. Protesters are being tear-gassed, beaten, arrested and forced into “free speech zones.” And under the guise of “government speech,” the courts have reasoned that the government can discriminate freely against any First Amendment activity that takes place within a government forum.

    The Second Amendment was intended to guarantee “the right of the people to keep and bear arms.” Essentially, this amendment was intended to give the citizenry the means to resist tyrannical government. Yet while gun ownership has been recognized by the U.S. Supreme Court as an individual citizen right, Americans remain powerless to defend themselves against SWAT team raids and government agents armed to the teeth with military weapons better suited for the battlefield. As such, this amendment has been rendered null and void.

    The Third Amendment reinforces the principle that civilian-elected officials are superior to the military by prohibiting the military from entering any citizen’s home without “the consent of the owner.” With the police increasingly training like the military, acting like the military, and posing as military forces—complete with heavily armed SWAT teams, military weapons, assault vehicles, etc.—it is clear that we now have what the founders feared most—a standing army on American soil

    The Fourth Amendment prohibits government agents from conducting surveillance on you or touching you or invading you, unless they have some evidence that you’re up to something criminal. In other words, the Fourth Amendment ensures privacy and bodily integrity. Unfortunately, the Fourth Amendment has suffered the greatest damage in recent years and has been all but eviscerated by an unwarranted expansion of police powers that include strip searches and even anal and vaginal searches of citizens, surveillance (corporate and otherwise) and intrusions justified in the name of fighting terrorism, as well as the outsourcing of otherwise illegal activities to private contractors.

    The Fifth Amendment and the Sixth Amendment work in tandem. These amendments supposedly ensure that you are innocent until proven guilty, and government authorities cannot deprive you of your life, your liberty or your property without the right to an attorney and a fair trial before a civilian judge. However, in the new suspect society in which we live, where surveillance is the norm, these fundamental principles have been upended. Certainly, if the government can arbitrarily freeze, seize or lay claim to your property (money, land or possessions) under government asset forfeiture schemes, you have no true rights.

    The Seventh Amendment guarantees citizens the right to a jury trial. Yet when the populace has no idea of what’s in the Constitution—civic education has virtually disappeared from most school curriculums—that inevitably translates to an ignorant jury incapable of distinguishing justice and the law from their own preconceived notions and fears. However, as a growing number of citizens are coming to realize, the power of the jury to nullify the government’s actions—and thereby help balance the scales of justice—is not to be underestimated. Jury nullification reminds the government that “we the people” retain the power to ultimately determine what laws are just.

    The Eighth Amendment is similar to the Sixth in that it is supposed to protect the rights of the accused and forbid the use of cruel and unusual punishment. However, the Supreme Court’s determination that what constitutes “cruel and unusual” should be dependent on the “evolving standards of decency that mark the progress of a maturing society” leaves us with little protection in the face of a society lacking in morals altogether.

    The Ninth Amendment provides that other rights not enumerated in the Constitution are nonetheless retained by the people. Popular sovereignty—the belief that the power to govern flows upward from the people rather than downward from the rulers—is clearly evident in this amendment. However, it has since been turned on its head by a centralized federal government that sees itself as supreme and which continues to pass more and more laws that restrict our freedoms under the pretext that it has an “important government interest” in doing so.

    As for the Tenth Amendment’s reminder that the people and the states retain every authority that is not otherwise mentioned in the Constitution, that assurance of a system of government in which power is divided among local, state and national entities has long since been rendered moot by the centralized Washington, DC, power elite—the president, Congress and the courts. Indeed, the federal governmental bureaucracy has grown so large that it has made local and state legislatures relatively irrelevant. Through its many agencies and regulations, the federal government has stripped states of the right to regulate countless issues that were originally governed at the local level.

    If there is any sense to be made from this recitation of freedoms lost, it is simply this: our individual freedoms have been eviscerated so that the government’s powers could be expanded.

    Yet those who gave us the Constitution and the Bill of Rights believed that the government exists at the behest of its citizens. It is there to protect, defend and even enhance our freedoms, not violate them.

    It was no idle happenstance that the Constitution opens with these three powerful words: “We the people.” As the Preamble proclaims:

    We, the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect Union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this CONSTITUTION for the United States of America.

    In other words, we have the power to make and break the government. We are the masters and they are the servants. We the American people—the citizenry—are the arbiters and ultimate guardians of America’s welfare, defense, liberty, laws and prosperity.

    Still, it’s hard to be a good citizen if you don’t know anything about your rights or how the government is supposed to operate.

    As the National Review rightly asks, “How can Americans possibly make intelligent and informed political choices if they don’t understand the fundamental structure of their government? American citizens have the right to self-government, but it seems that we increasingly lack the capacity for it.”

    Americans are constitutionally illiterate.

    Most citizens have little, if any, knowledge about their basic rights. And our educational system does a poor job of teaching the basic freedoms guaranteed in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. For instance, when Newsweek asked 1,000 adult U.S. citizens to take America’s official citizenship test44% were unable to define the Bill of Rights.

    A survey by the Annenberg Public Policy Center found that a little more than one-third of respondents (36 percent) could name all three branches of the U.S. government, while another one-third (35 percent) could not name a single one. Only a quarter of Americans (27 percent) know it takes a two-thirds vote of the House and Senate to override a presidential veto. One in five Americans (21 percent) incorrectly thinks that a 5-4 Supreme Court decision is sent back to Congress for reconsideration. And more than half of Americans do not know which party controls the House and Senate.

    A 2006 survey by the McCormick Tribune Freedom Museum found that only one out of a thousand adults could identify the five rights protected by the First Amendment. On the other hand, more than half (52%) of the respondents could name at least two of the characters in the animated Simpsonstelevision family, and 20% could name all five. And although half could name none of the freedoms in the First Amendment, a majority (54%) could name at least one of the three judges on the TV program American Idol, 41% could name two and one-fourth could name all three.

    It gets worse. 

    Many who responded to the survey had a strange conception of what was in the First Amendment. For example, 21% said the “right to own a pet” was listed someplace between “Congress shall make no law” and “redress of grievances.” Some 17% said that the First Amendment contained the “right to drive a car,” and 38% believed that “taking the Fifth” was part of the First Amendment.

    Teachers and school administrators do not fare much better. A study conducted by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis found that one educator in five was unable to name any of the freedoms in the First Amendment.

    In fact, while some educators want students to learn about freedom, they do not necessarily want them to exercise their freedoms in school. As the researchers conclude, “Most educators think that students already have enough freedom, and that restrictions on freedom in the school are necessary. Many support filtering the Internet, censoring T-shirts, disallowing student distribution of political or religious material, and conducting prior review of school newspapers.”

    Government leaders and politicians are also ill-informed. Although they take an oath to uphold, support and defend the Constitution against “enemies foreign and domestic,” their lack of education about our fundamental rights often causes them to be enemies of the Bill of Rights.

    So what’s the solution?

    Thomas Jefferson recognized that a citizenry educated on “their rights, interests, and duties”  is the only real assurance that freedom will survive.

    As Jefferson wrote in 1820: “I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers of our society but the people themselves; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education. This is the true corrective of abuses of constitutional power.”

    From the President on down, anyone taking public office should have a working knowledge of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and should be held accountable for upholding their precepts. One way to ensure this would be to require government leaders to take a course on the Constitution and pass a thorough examination thereof before being allowed to take office.

    Some critics are advocating that students pass the United States citizenship exam in order to graduate from high school. Others recommend that it must be a prerequisite for attending college. I’d go so far as to argue that students should have to pass the citizenship exam before graduating from grade school.

    Here’s an idea to get educated and take a stand for freedom: anyone who signs up to become a member of The Rutherford Institute gets a wallet-sized Bill of Rights card and a Know Your Rights card. Use this card to teach your children the freedoms found in the Bill of Rights.

    If this constitutional illiteracy is not remedied and soon, freedom in America will be doomed.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we have managed to keep the wolf at bay so far. Barely.

    Our national priorities need to be re-prioritized. For instance, some argue that we need to make America great again. I, for one, would prefer to make America free again.

    As actor-turned-activist Richard Dreyfuss warned:

    Unless we teach the ideas that make America a miracle of government, it will go away in your kids’ lifetimes, and we will be a fable.You have to find the time and creativity to teach it in schools, and if you don’t, you will lose it. You will lose it to the darkness, and what this country represents is a tiny twinkle of light in a history of oppression and darkness and cruelty. If it lasts for more than our lifetime, for more than our kids’ lifetime, it is only because we put some effort into teaching what it is, the ideas of America: the idea of opportunity, mobility, freedom of thought, freedom of assembly.”

  • Air Force Calls For 24% Increase In Squadrons To Prepare For War Against Major Power

    Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson on Monday called for a significant increase in the service’s size, as it prepares for the possibility of war against a major nation such as China or Russia, in the next decade.

    Under the expansion plan outlined by Wilson, the Air Force needs to grow by 74 additional squadrons, a 25% increase, by 2030. She said the number was based on internal reports, using intelligence estimates of what the service would need as far as manpower to be victorious in the next conflict.

    “To face the world as it is, with a rapidly innovating adversary, the Air Force we need should have about 25 percent more operational squadrons in the 2025 to 2030 time frame than the Air Force we have,” Wilson told attendees at an Air Force Association conference in National Harbor, Maryland.

    Wilson, the Air Force’s top civilian official, said the increase is essential to the service’s current mission of upholding the new national defense strategy, as well as combating the evolving threats from China and Russia.

    “The defense strategy tells us that we need to be able to defend the homeland, provide a credible nuclear deterrent and win against a major power while encountering a rogue nation, all while managing violent extremists with lower levels of effort,” she said.

    Wilson said the service has approximately 312 operational squadrons but needs 386.

    “Three hundred and twelve operational squadrons is not enough. It takes all of us to get that combat power ready and able to fight. A fist is nothing without the weight of the body behind it.

    Wilson explained that the 74 additional squadrons, 14 would be dedicated to aerial refueling. Seven of them would be assigned to space squadrons, and five would be bomber squadrons. She said seven new operations squadrons, nine combat search and rescue squadrons, 22 command and control squadrons, seven more fighter squadrons, two drone squadrons, and one airlift squadron.

    She added that the Air Force does not anticipate more nuclear or cyber squadrons, and while she conceded that it would take years to build these new squadrons, she did not give an estimate of how much the program would cost.

    “We aren’t naive about how long it will take us to build the support and budget required for the force we need. It is a choice,” Wilson said.

    Todd Harrison, a defense budget analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed out that a 24 percent growth in Air Force squadrons would require an additional $13 billion per year. 

    “The cost of pay and benefits for 40,000 airmen is about $5.2B per year (give or take),” he wrote in a Tweet on Friday. “Right now the Air Force spends about $53B per year on aircraft operations, training, and recruiting. Increasing the number of squadrons by ~24% would probably add another $13B per year in these operating costs.”

    War is big business. Decades-long wars have enriched the shareholders of Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman. As for the foreseeable future, America’s military-industrial-complex will continue to expand. For those asking why, the chart below shows the answer:

     

  • How The Trade War Helps Hide Central Bank Sabotage Of The Economy

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group

    Almost every aspect of the global economic downturn, which started ostensibly in 2007-2008 and is still ongoing to this day, can be traced back to the actions and policies of central banks. The Federal Reserve, for example, used artificially low interest rates and easy money to create a supposedly no-risk loan environment. This translated into a vast amount of toxic mortgage debt along with a web of derivatives (Mortgage Backed Securities) attached to that debt.

    The Fed ignored all the signs and all the alternative analyst warnings. Agencies like S&P backed the Fed narrative that all was well as they gave AAA ratings to endless toxic market products. The mainstream media backed the Fed by attacking anyone that argued the notion that the U.S. economy was unstable and ready to falter. In that era of economics, the truth was effectively hidden from the public by the system through relatively standard means. Today, things have changed slightly.

    Since the 2008 crash, numerous economists and former Fed officials have come out publicly to admit to the culpability of central bankers (sort of). Alan Greenspan first claimed in 2008 that the Fed had “made a mistake” in its analysis and overlooked the potential of a market bubble. Then, in 2013 he came out and admitted all the central bankers KNEW that a bubble was present, but that they believed the markets would self-correct without much damage to GDP or the rest of the economy.

    The mainstream financial media went on to blame the Fed for the conditions that caused the crisis, but made excuses for them at the same time. The narrative was that the Fed was blinded by peripheral factors and that it had been ignoring fundamentals. The central bankers had “painted themselves into a corner” with low interest rates, and had done this unknowingly.

    This is the same narrative that Alan Greenspan used to dismiss any responsibility on the Fed’s part during the collapse of the market bubble in the 1990’s. Greenspan argued against the idea of raising interest rates in response to the bubble because it would “put the entire economy in peril”. Interestingly, raising interest rates into a debt heavy stock market and economy (a leveraged economy) is exactly what the Fed is doing today under current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

    This pattern of creating bubbles and then crashing them, resulting in financial chaos, goes back quite a long time. In the 1920’s, the Fed’s low interest rate policies and easy money led to the bubble conditions of October 1929, a month that will live in infamy as the start of the Great Depression. The Fed then raised rates sharply in the early 1930’s, which then caused a renewed crisis and prolonged the Depression well into the next decade. It took over 70 years for a Fed official to finally take blame for the disaster, but it happened in 2002 during a speech given by Ben Bernanke at “A Conference To Honor Milton Friedman…On Occasion Of His 90th Birthday”:

    “In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great Contraction were much more severe and widespread than would have normally occurred during a downturn.

    Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”

    This might come as a surprise to some, but Bernanke lied. The Fed has continued the process of bubble-and-burst economics using interest rates and its balance sheet as weapons well into the new century, and yet very few analysts are willing to suggest that the central banks creates these crises on purpose.

    Throughout history, economic calamity has often led to consolidation of wealth and assets into the hands of the top 1%. This happened during the Great Depression as larger globalist banks, like JP Morgan, snapped up or destroyed thousands of smaller local banks until only the majors were left. In the wake of the 2008 crash, one need only examine the historic widening of the wealth gap, as the top 1% are set to take control of two-thirds of the world’s wealth by 2030. Or, we might take into account the absorption of the housing market by conglomerates like Blackstone as private home ownership declined after the crash.

    I believe that the next economic disaster will be more substantial than all the bubbles of the past 100 years combined, and the intent on the part of the banking elites is to obtain complete global centralization of all assets and resources.

    This time, though, the general public has finally learned to be more suspicious of the central banks and their motives during such events. Because of greater exposure after the 2008 crash, central banks and their related institutions cannot rely merely on the mainstream media or government entities like the Bureau of Labor Statistics to cover for them. They need a smokescreen.

    The trade war is so perfect in this regard, I believe that it could not be anything other than planned. Here are five reasons why:

    1) The trade war provides cover for de-dollarization: With emerging markets previously addicted to easy money from the Fed, dollars were used to provide artificial support for their ailing economies. Now, with the Fed raising interest rates and cutting the balance sheet, that flow of dollars is drying up. Emerging markets are starting to look for alternatives as they have no other choice, and this means more bilateral trade agreements that circumvent the dollar.

    Lucky for the Fed, the trade war can be used as a scapegoat for countries dumping the dollar in the name of striking an economic blow against the U.S. Nations like Turkey and Russia have already begun to threaten this outcome.

    2) The trade war provides a rationale for dumping US Treasuries: Russia is already well ahead of this process, dumping at least half their US treasuries in a single month.  It is only a matter of time before China uses the same method as retaliation for US tariffs.  The mainstream media will argue that this is not a meaningful threat to the US economy, but consider the possibility that China’a trading partners will follow their lead causing a “contagion” of treasuries dumped onto the markets.  If the US cannot maintain foreign investment in its considerable debts, it will implode economically.  The Federal Reserve has ensured that there are no policy tools left to come to the rescue if this happens.  Foreign holders of US debt have been openly discussing this option ever since the 2008 crash.  Now, the trade war makes the US culpable (at least in terms of historical narrative) for whatever occurs next.

    3) The trade war provides cover for inflation: With ever-increasing tariffs on goods and materials from around the world, retail prices are only going to spike higher, but the real inflation danger will come from the Fed. True inflation is already well above Fed targets. The money creation that the central bank used to stall the debt crisis created an even bigger bubble in the dollar itself. With new tightening policies will come a rush of dollars back into the U.S. as emerging markets de-dollarize.  Without the Fed providing constant stimulus, using dollars as the world reserve will eventually become trade prohibitive.  All of this will still be blamed on tariffs and trade disputes, and not the Fed.

    4) The trade war provides cover for a renewed market crash: As the Fed launched its bailout measures and Quantitative Easing, it was emerging market stocks that first began to climb exponentially out of the deep pit caused by the debt crisis. U.S. and European stocks followed to the insane bull market highs witnessed recently. Now, as the Fed restricts stimulus and cuts its balance sheet, it is emerging markets that are crashing first. The question is, will western markets follow them down? I believe they absolutely will.

    Fed Chair Powell admitted to this outcome in statements he made in the October 2012 Fed minutes. He is well aware of the consequences of removing the pillars of low interest rates and Fed asset purchases, yet, he continues with the plan anyway. Why? Because a new market crash can be blamed on Trump and the trade war. Trump has all but taken full credit for current market highs, and now he owns whatever happens in the next two years.

    5) The trade war provides cover for the demonization of conservative ideals: The concept of tariffs on foreign goods in order to encourage localized production and self-sufficiency is a tactic as old as America itself. It is conservative in nature and can be an effective measure in the right hands. That said, it requires an existing manufacturing base and relatively stable economic conditions. A debt addled economy desperately clinging to the reserve status of its currency and fiat inflation for life is the WORST environment to launch tariffs. The bottom line is that America has little to no leverage against its competitors because we are more dependent on them than they are on us.

    The evidence of this is clear in the fact that the U.S. trade deficit only continues to climb as the trade war progresses. Some people have argued that this is due to U.S. retailers increasing purchases from overseas before tariffs take effect, but the minor increases in retail inventories of goods do not support this theory. The continued decline of inventories to sales suggests a declining consumer market in the U.S. as well.

    When it becomes obvious that the trade war is failing, the globalist dream of demonizing conservative economic models and values will be easier to achieve. As all fiscal crises are wrapped around the neck of Trump, and thus conservatives by extension, the public will be told that the only solution is to swing to the other side of the political and economic spectrum in an extreme way. In other words, high speed socialism and globalism.

    The success of this kind of propaganda will depend on whether or not people have been adequately educated as to the REAL source of our financial ills.

    • If the word on the lips of the masses is “Trump did it”, then we are in trouble.

    • If the word is “The central bankers did it and Trump was merely their proxy…” then we might have a chance to stop the ship from sinking completely.

    *  *  *

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  • Most Blue-Collar Workers Report Feeling 'Optimistic' And 'Happy', Study Shows

    The unprecedented optimism being felt by small business owners and consumers is also lifting the spirits of blue collar workers, according to a new survey which found that American laborers are enjoying rising wages and improved job prospects, while their white-collar peers struggle with stagnant wages and growing rates of work-related dissatisfaction.

    Worker

    Of course, anybody who has spent long hours behind a desk probably wouldn’t be surprised to hear that one of the biggest factors behind the high rates of work-related dissatisfaction among white collar workers is the fact that most of them spend nearly two-thirds of their day in a sedentary position. In contrast, blue-collar workers enjoy high levels of mobility.

    Our findings do suggest, however, that white-collar work remains associated with sedentary office culture. Those who deemed themselves white-collar professionals said they spent more than two-thirds of their workdays at a desk on average. Conversely, the most common industries for self-identified blue-collar workers were the wholesale and retail, manufacturing and hospitality fields—work typically performed on one’s feet.

    With that said, blue-collar workers struggle with anxieties related to their long-term career trajectory at significantly higher rates than white collar workers. Blue-collar workers also report higher rates of feeling disrespected while at work.

    How does the job satisfaction of blue- and white-collar professionals compare? Whereas more than two-thirds of each cohort reported feeling happy at work, white-collar workers were slightly more likely to report as much. Likewise, blue-collar workers were more likely to express unhappiness about their professional lives. These findings resonate with global data gauging worker happiness, suggesting that individuals in labor-intensive positions experience positive emotions less frequently across the world.

    There may be many viable explanations for this happiness gap, but it seems unlikely to result from co-worker conflict. White-collar workers were only slightly more likely to express that they “liked” their colleagues. Our data do suggest, however, that poor treatment at work could contribute to the relative unhappiness of blue-collar workers. Indeed, blue-collar workers were substantially more likely to report being mistreated or disrespected at their jobs. Several studies have concluded that workers who feel respected in their roles experience better health and well-being. Could blue-collar workers’ happiness depend more on others’ civility than the actual nature of their work?

    In a sign that President Trump’s economic policies are helping lift all Americans – not just the wealthy – both white- and blue-collar workers are largely “optimistic about the future,” with 72% of blue collar workers and 76% of white collar workers answering in the affirmative.

    Worker

    Half of respondents feel they could easily find another job (which is hardly surprising given that the number of job openings is at its highest level in years). However, blue-collar workers may have seen their prospects rise thanks to a surge in blue-collar jobs.

    But despite these material gains in wages and wealth, most blue-collar workers still feel that they’re underpaid (to be sure, this is hardly a new phenomenon).

    But moving on from purely economic concerns, the study raised a few interesting (albeit unsurprising) points during a section that examined blue- and white-collar workers emotional well-being and perceptions of one another. For starters, most blue- and white-collar workers feel “happy”…

    Four

    But when it comes to perception, there are some notable gaps. Blue-collar workers perceive their white-collar peers to be educated, but they also perceive them to be arrogant jerks.

    Workers

    This may come as a surprise to members of the professional class who often unconsciously patronize blue-collar workers. But to anyone who has ever been screamed at by an agitated middle-aged housewife while, say, working as a cashier at a fast-food restaurant, the factors behind this bias should be crystal clear.

    Why do blue-collar individuals typically perceive white-collar individuals more harshly? One possible explanation lies in our data about the mistreatment and disrespect that blue-collar workers experience at work. White-collar professionals may have great admiration for blue-collar workers, but that matters little if they treat them poorly in reality. As managers and customers, are white-collar individuals doing enough to demonstrate respect?

    In summary, this survey shows that after decades of declines, the fortunes for the American worker are finally starting to improve. But we’re sure Democrats would argue that Obama deserves the credit for this, instead of Trump and his explicitly pro-business and pro-worker policies.

  • Recusal Of Mystery Judge Stalls DNC Fraud Lawsuit Appeal

    Authored by Elizabath Lea Vos via Disobedient Media

    UPDATE: 9/18/18 In another mind boggling twist, it was revealed after the publication of the following article that the recused Judge is in fact the Hon. Robin S. Rosenbaum, who has served on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals since 2014, and is apparently a member of the “Quill and Dagger” collegiate secret society.

    The DNC Fraud Lawsuit has been no stranger to unusual and atypical occurrences. The latest unprecedented development continues this trend, potentially raising troubling questions as to the integrity of the Federal appellate process.

    Disobedient Media has consistently covered the DNC Fraud lawsuit and its ongoing appeal as it has been dogged by outlandish events including voice-modulated phone calls, threats, and inexplicable deaths. Many such events have gone unnoticed and unreported by the legacy media.

    Though the suit was initially dismissed on jurisdictional grounds, the dismissal is in the process of an appeal in the Federal 11th Circuit appellate court. A hearing in the matter had been set for September 25th. However, attorneys for the plaintiffs in the case recently announced that the hearing had been canceled, with no date for a new hearing at the time of writing.

    The cancellation of the September hearing became more alarming in the wake of news that it stemmed from the recusal of one of three Judges. A periscope statement made by Elizabeth Lee Beck, one of the attorneys for the plaintiffs in the case, discussed the bizarre events earlier today, stating in part:

    “Oral argument was set for September 25 in the DNC Fraud Lawsuit appeal, and it was assigned to that date for months. Less than two weeks before that hearing was supposed to happen, one of our three Judges recused herself. What that means is, for reasons that are unknown to us, decided that she is not fit to hear this appeal, it could be for any reason. Generally, it is for conflict of interest, but we don’t know what the reason is.

    In every recusal that has happened in my Federal cases, the identity of the Judges recusing him or herself was disclosed to the public. In the DNC Fraud Lawsuit appeal, when the recusal came down, the identity of this third Judge was hidden. Now the other two Judges are Judges Hall and Carnes. All the circuit Judges in the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals are listed on their website.

    … So I called the clerk’s office to just find out the identity of the third judge… the clerk told me that she is not allowed to tell me this information… she concluded the call by saying she [the clerk] is actually waiting on the third Judge to give her permission to call me back, and let me know what her [the judge’s] identity is.

    So it is up to this Judge who recused herself, to decide whether or not she is going to disclose her identity.”

    As Beck explained, all 11th Circuit Judges are listed on their website,making the refusal to reveal the third Judge’s identity patently bizarre.

    The recusal of the mystery judge, in addition to the inexplicable lack of a new court date to replace the canceled September 25th hearing raises concerns as to what kind of conflict of interest or other matter motivated the recusal, and what then led to this bizarre cover-up of the recusing Judge’s identity.

    To most readers, it would seem unlikely and unnecessary that a Judge who had some legitimate, above-board conflict of interest with the defendants in the case – the DNC and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz – would feel the need to hide their identity for properly recusing themselves in the matter. Many Judges might have legitimately dealt with the DNC or Schultz, making a recusal necessary. In that case, why hide their identity?

    The events lead one to query whether the Judge in question did not recuse herself due to conflict of interest regarding the defendants in the case. This opens an unanswerable slew of further questions as to whether there could have been any plausible conflict of interest with the plaintiffs, which seems very unlikely.

    If there was no such conflict, one wonders what other motivating factors may have led to this late decision. These issues raise the overall potential for public speculation regarding the possibility of back-room threats or below-board deals of some kind, which then necessitated the cover-up of the Judge in question’s identity.

    The public can only speculate as to how this latest turn in the ongoing DNC Fraud Lawsuit saga will unfold, and when – if ever- a new court date will be set in the appeal process.

    Disobedient Media will continue to report on this important matter as it develops.

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Today’s News 18th September 2018

  • All Euros Gravitate To Germany

    The Euro has been around for almost 20 years. The Russian transfer ruble survived 25 years. As GEFIRA explains, the two currencies have something in common: they were and are not a success story…

    The introduction of the transfer ruble was intended to enable free trade between the countries of the Eastern bloc. The creation of the common clearing system led to the exchange rates for the East German mark, zloty, forint, lev, and even the Mongolian tugrik being arbitrarily fixed by the Soviet Union, regardless of the purchasing power of the national currencies. In the 1960s, the Bulgarian lev was 20% undervalued and the Polish zloty about 45% overvalued. Since the transfer ruble was not yet convertible into Western currencies, it remained an illusion and a means by which the Soviet Union could enrich itself and save its budget at the expense of its satellite states: the Russians bought raw materials, goods, food for convertible currencies in the West and sold them to their “socialist friends” for transfer rubels. The international bank for economic cooperation, which sat in Moscow and handled all transactions in the transfer ruble, swept the real trade surpluses and deficits under the carpet. With the political change the common settlement currency came to to an end, and it turned out that the Soviet Union owed huge sums to its “brothers”.

    The situation with the euro is a bit different these days. There are certain similarities to the red dollar (that’s how some people called the transfer rubble).

    Firstly, all countries and citizens of the euro zone are constantly told that the euro is good for them all, which is not true. (The facts can be found in our other articles.

    Secondly, the euro favours the trade balances of some countries (Germany, France) but damages those of others (PIGS countries).

    Thirdly, the euro, as a transfer currency, contributes to the growth of mountains of debt.

    Fourthly, the euro zone has been artificially extended – fortunately not to Mongolia – but Italy and Greece did not and do not fulfil the Maastricht criteria. This was the reason for financial crises and will continue to be so in the future.

    There are also differences between the red dollar and the EU’s common currency.

    Firstly, the euro is not just a currency for accounting purposes, it is the only currency in force in the countries of the fraternal EU community. The dream of the communists has come true and the central banks of the eurozone members have become zombies that are supposedly allowed to participate in decision-making.

    Secondly, the mountains of debt are growing elsewhere – not the issuer/manager of the currency is in debt, but the “beneficiaries” who join the euro zone.

    Greece’s debt was handled in such a way that the country received a huge injection of money from the ECB; Italy’s and Spain’s debt will soon cause sleepless nights for decision-makers in Rome, Madrid, Brussels and Berlin.

    The counterpart of the Soviet transfer rouble in the EU is, to be precise, not the euro, but Target 2.

    It is a payment system in which banks process cross-border payments in real time. In Target 2, surpluses or deficits arise when money flows from one eurozone country to another. During the aggravation of the last euro debt crisis in 2011 and 2012, capital from particularly affected countries like Spain and Italy fled through the Target 2 banking market to countries like Germany and Luxembourg, which were considered safe havens. Germany’s claims against the poorer southern European countries reached 700 billion euros at the time (see chart below).

    The situation only returned to normal when ECB President Mario Draghi made it clear that, if necessary, he could adjust the balance sheet by printing additional money. Target 2 prevented the countries from collapsing. If Spain had stayed with Peso and Italy with Lira, they would have collapsed. Target 2 protected them from bankruptcy at the expense of German, Luxembourg and Dutch citizens. Since 2015 we have been observing the flight of capital to the north again, at a time when the money printing machine in Frankfurt am Main is working like crazy. This time, however, the capital flight is the result of Draghi starting QE in 2015 and the Bundesbank starting to buy back bonds on the market.

    The Italian central bank is dependent on the ECB and has to buy Italian government bonds. German investors have to exchange these bonds for euros in Italy and transfer the money via Target 2 to their German bank. The growing differences in the Target 2 balance sheets therefore result from this:

    1. that the Germans, who own the Italian bonds, dissolve them in Italy and transfer the money thus obtained to Germany. It is the consequence of the earlier problems with trade balances: Italians bought German products with their bonds in the past. Germany therefore has more debt claims than any of its neighbours.

    2. that Italians liquidate their bonds and send their money abroad – a usual flight of capital.

    So again enormously high debt claims arose on the German side. This year they have already reached a trillion euros, i.e. a huge amount of 25% of German GDP.

    The immense German Target 2 claims are not covered by any securities. If Italy or Spain withdraw from the euro zone, the Germans will be left to their own devices. There is still no unrest in Germany over this, because confidence in the Bundesbank is well known in Germany. Jaques Delors once said: “Not all Germans believe in God, but all believe in the Bundesbank.”

    Everyone probably believes in the ECB and Mario Draghi. At his press conference on 26 July this year, he wanted to have a calming effect when he spoke about Target 2: “It has nothing to do with the movement of capital from country to country”. In fact, it is only the clearing balances that can be overdrawn as long as no one leaves the euro zone.

    So Italy must not leave the euro zone. It is “too big to fall”: its debt amounts to 2.3 trillion euros (!), liabilities in Target 2 rose in June 2018 from -164.5 billion euros in 2015 to -481 billion euros. This means that Banca d’Italia owes the Bundesbank almost half a trillion euros!

    On the one hand there is Draghi, the Italian who uses his position to save his country, and on the other there are many German economists who criticise Target 2. Professor Hans Werner Sinn, for whom Target 2 is a cheque that cannot be cashed, is particularly well known. In one of his articles he describes the situation in Spain and Italy as follows:

    In these countries radical socialists rule who don’t want to know anything about budgetary discipline, in Italy the old parties were swept away. The radical government of Five Stars and Lega wants to take out much more credit under the protection of the other euro countries than it is taking anyway and threatens to leave the euro if the EU refuses to do so.”

    Draghi takes a different view:

    “The euro is indispensable because it is strong, because societies want it (!), and it is in no one’s interest to doubt the sense of its existence. It is not worth discussing the abolition of what is inevitable (!). That can only do harm.”

    Comrade Draghi, of course, you are right, our transfer ruble is untouchable, and it is not worth discussing the existence of our (socialist?) community and currency. It will continue to exist for another 1000 years!

    In 1990, Russia owed Germany 6.4 billion transfer rubles (7.4 billion euros) on account of its foreign trade balances. Schröder gave Putin 7.1 billion, and Russia only paid back 500 million euros. How much will Merkel give away to the south if something goes badly?

  • EU Does Nothing To Stop US Meddling In Its Elections

    Authored by Alex Gorka via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The hackneyed old stories about the threat of Russian “meddling” in the elections of other countries have gone stale. Since no real evidence has ever been presented, they don’t attract much public attention anymore. It is generally believed that poor Europe is not ready to stop Russia, but it should be, as the European parliamentary election scheduled for May 2019 is drawing closer. Warnings have been issued, alarm bells sounded, and recommendations presented by think tanks. Former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen warned about the “Russia threat” as far back as last March. As there was nothing to substantiate his statement, one can only assume that the former official has been endowed with the gift of clairvoyance.

    Currently Europe under threat from “populist and neo-Nazi formations” and the only way to counter it is to stay united. In other words, there must be no EU reforms, no policy changes, those Brussels-based pooh-bahs will go on enjoying their serene lives tut-tutting about the nefarious plans of those who oppose them, and refugees will be free to pour in until the EU explodes.

    Has Russia done anything specifically to provoke the accusations that it has plans to meddle in the European election race? Not a thing, but there is somebody else who has.

    No, the EU leadership is not dismayed enough to raise a hue and cry over the scandalous remarks made by US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell. It sees no need to do anything about it. In June, the ambassador did not shy away from openly promising to use his office to help far-right nationalists inspired by Donald Trump take power across Europe! In an interview with Breitbart News, Richard Grenell said he was “excited” by the rise of far-right parties on the continent and wanted “to empower other conservatives throughout Europe, other leaders.” Those were his literal words!

    If that’s not interference, then what is? But no, no warning has been issued about the danger of US meddling in Europe’s May elections. Just imagine what would happen if a Russian ambassador to an EU country publicly said such a thing! Mr. Grenell did not see anything wrong with praising the Austrian government coalition, which includes the Freedom Party that was formed in the 1950s by a former Nazi officer. He actually lectured the Germans about what their government should look like. It seems like times have changed and intervening in European politics on behalf of far-right leaders has become the norm, at least for the ambassadors of the United States.

    George Soros, a US billionaire who became one of the world’s wealthiest people by managing hedge funds and betting on currency fluctuations, has meddled in European elections many times. The last Italian election is one example. His Open Society Foundations spend $940 million a year in 100 countries in pursuit of political goals. He has been asked to leave Russia and Hungary, the country of his birth, for interfering in politics. The “Soros network” has great influence in the European Parliament and in other European Union institutions. It’s an open secret that the billionaire is a vehicle used by the US State Department to meddle in other countries’ internal affairs. USAID and the Soros network often team up. Last year, six US senators signed a letter asking the State Department to look into government funding of Soros-backed organizations, but to no avail. The State Department always protects the financier.

    Last year, the “Soros list” was made public. It contained the names of 226 MEPs from all sides of political spectrum who are eager to promote the ideas of Soros, such as the integration of Ukraine into the EU, and, of course, taking a stand against Russia. The lawmakers on the list hold roughly one-third of the seats in the European Parliament! They vote as they are told by a US tycoon. But no, this fact has been swept into the shadows. there is no threat to democracy, no negative impact on any elections — nothing to worry about. Can anybody imagine what would happen if it were revealed that a Russian oligarch with close ties to the government was keeping a list of “allied” European politicians? Europe is adamant about countering foreign influence and the “threat” coming from … Russia. The fact that one-third of MEPs are “allied” with George Soros is not a big thing. It’s Moscow’s alleged “meddling” that is keeping the EU leaders and media magnates from sleeping.

    Steve Bannon, a former adviser to President Trump, is pretty busy at present. He is in the process of setting up a non-profit Brussels-based foundation called The Movement, to support right-wing anti-EU parties during the European Parliament races. The British Ukip party has already pledged to work with it. The short-term goal is to produce a European Parliament in which every third lawmaker belongs to a right-wing “supergroup,” so that it will be possible to disrupt parliamentary proceedings. “Right-wing populist nationalism is what will happen. That’s what will govern,” Steve Bannon told the Daily Beast“You’re going to have individual nation states with their own identities, their own borders.” According to the source, “The operation is also supposed to serve as a link between Europe’s right-wing movements and the pro-Trump Freedom Caucus in the US.”

    He wants a well-financed, centralized operation in order to bring right-wingers together. The Daily Beast quotes Raheem Kassam, a former Breitbart editor, who said,“Forget your Merkels.” According to him, “Soros and Bannon are going to be the two biggest players in European politics for years to come.” What would Europeans say if a formerly highly placed Russian official with close ties to the president set up a political movement to openly influence the Old World’s political life?

    The Movement would challenge the work of philanthropist George Soros, and his liberal Open Society Foundations (OSF). If they succeed, Americans closely linked to the US government will control European mainstream politics. One-third (Bannon) plus one-third (Soros) equals two-thirds — an overwhelming majority consisting of right-wingers and liberals.

    The US involvement in European politics is so evident and extensive that talking about Russian “meddling” sounds farcical. The Americans are free to do anything they want. It never occurs to European leaders to sound the alarm and put the issue on the EU’s security agenda. They are too busy looking the other way while turning a blind eye to the fact that the meddling they fear so much has already been taking place without hindrance for a very long time indeed.

  • Prosecutors Can Pursue First Criminal Fraud Case Involving An ICO, Judge Rules

    What began one year ago as a civil action brought by the SEC against a ICO founder accused of defrauding his clients has transformed into the first criminal fraud proceeding against an ICO – all thanks to a judge’s ruling that the charges brought by the DOJ can proceed.

    Coin

    Regular readers may remember when we reported last September that the SEC was seeking to ban businessman Maksim Zaslavskiy from participating in any future crypto-related endeavors and also levy a hefty fine, after buyers of two ICOs organized by Zaslavskiy claimed that he had swindled them out of hundreds of thousands of dollars. While the proceedings against Zaslavskiy were initially strictly civil, at some point during the intervening months, the DOJ decided to get involved. And now, it’s seeking what would be the first criminal conviction of an ICO fraudster in the US. Zaslavskiy allegedly launched two ICOs claiming that the tokens would be backed by diamonds and real estate. But his buyers soon learned that the underlying assets never existed. Zaslavskiy was initially accused by the SEC of defrauding his clients of $300,000 via two ICO schemes. The FBI has frozen his assets and those belonging to his companies, REcoin Group Foundation and DRC World. Zaslavskiy’s investors never received their digital tokens, and there is no evidence that he ever spent the money buying the underlying assets that he had promised. 

    Here’s more from our original post:

    According to the SEC’s complaint, investors in REcoin Group Foundation and DRC World (also known as Diamond Reserve Club) were told (presumably by Zaslavskiy) that they could expect sizeable returns from the companies’ operations, when neither had any real operations to speak of.

    While the SEC had initially hoped to bust Zaslavskiy for selling unlicensed securities (the SEC ruled in July 2017 in a report on the collapse of the DAO, a type of crypto-based crowdfunding vehicle, that ICO tokens were indeed securities, and as such much be registered with the agency), the DOJ soon decided to press charges of securities fraud. However, Zaslavskiy’s legal team filed a motion to dismiss the case in March based on the argument that the tokens involved were, in fact, currencies, and therefore securities laws should not apply.

    Now, a federal judge has ruled that the prosecution can move forward – though it will ultimately be up to a jury to decide whether the ICO tokens in question should be considered securities by law, Bloomberg reported.

    The New York case, which prosecutors said was the first criminal prosecution of its kind, involves Maksim Zaslavskiy. The Brooklyn businessman was charged with conspiracy and two counts of securities fraud for his role in allegedly defrauding investors in two initial coin offerings. He’d argued that the ICOs at issue weren’t securities but instead currencies. Zaslavskiy also said securities law was too vague to be applied to initial coin offerings.

    In his ruling Tuesday, the judge said it will ultimately be up to the jury to decide whether the ICO at issue was a security, but the allegations in the indictment would support such a finding. The judge’s decision focused on the particulars of Zaslavskiy’s alleged ICOs, and not on other ICO transactions, but if upheld on appeal, the ruling could have broader ramifications.

    “Per the indictment, no diamonds or real estate, or any coins, tokens, or currency of any imaginable sort, ever existed — despite promises made to investors to the contrary,” Dearie said in his ruling. “Simply labeling an investment opportunity as a ‘virtual currency’ or ‘cryptocurrency’ does not transform an investment contract — a security — into a currency.”

    The case could have serious repercussions for the still-thriving ICO industry. Per Reuters, Dearie’s opinion and other filings in the case did not cite any previous court decisions, and back in March, another federal judge in Brooklyn ruled that ICO tokens could also be regulated by the CFTC. Crypto regulation in the US is still in the early stages of development, and much of the case law remains to be determined.

    But one thing is for certain: blockchain stalwarts will be closely watching the outcome of this case. A date for a trial has not yet been set, and it’s unclear whether Zaslavskiy’s attorneys will attempt to reach a settlement. If we had to guess, we’d imagine that Zaslavskiy’s attorneys would push for a trial. That’s because, with all of the conservative pro-business judges being appointed by the Trump administration (including Brett Kavanaugh, who is expected to be confirmed to the Supreme Court), the businessmen and women running these ICOs have a solid chance of winning a favorable ruling on appeal, even asmore than half of the ICOs launched last year have already failed.

     

  • Turkish Strategy In Northern Syria: Erdogan's Path To Building A Neo-Ottoman Empire

    Via SouthFront.org,

    GENERAL ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION

    In order to understand Turkey’s approach toward the conflict in Syria, one first needs to explain the military situation there as of September 2018.

    There are localized clashes between militant groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in northern Latakia and southern Idlib. The Syrian Arab Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Forces are carrying out strikes on weapon depots, equipment and UAV workshops and key facilities belonging to militants in southern and southwestern Idlib.

    These as well as deployment of additional SAA units at the contact line between the militant-held and government-held areas are described by pro-militant sources as clear sings of the upcoming SAA operation to defeat Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other al-Qaeda-like factions there.

    In Suweida and Rif Dimashq, the SAA is still working to eliminate ISIS cells operating in the desert area. Separate ISIS attacks on the SAA and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) happen time to time.

    In those parts of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor provinces, which are controlled by the Kurdish-dominated SDF, the health care system has been totally destroyed, and no effort is being made to restore major infrastructure. Many of the areas under SDF control suffer from epidemics due to the shortage of clean water, and nearly total absence of medical services. The situation particularly bad, when it comes to restoring normal life and services. Local authorities, who should be involved in these matters, are mainly concerned with their own well-being. Kurdish leaders still view their main task as the creation of an independent enclave and later their own state in these territories. This is why their main concern is to keep the political and military dominance in the Arab-populated area.

    Click to see the full-size image

    Negotiations between Damascus and the Kurds are continuing at a slow pace. The Kurdish political leadership are seeking to get concessions from Damascus, for example some kind of federation within Syria.

    Afrin, controlled by the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and Ankara proxies, is experiencing low-intensity guerilla war. Cells of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) regularly carry out bombings and run attacks on Turkey-led forces.

    The TAF has introduced additional security measures, increased the number of UAVs deployed and imposed practice of burning plots close to cities to react to YPG raids more quickly. However, the YPG continues a limited partisan war in Afrin, but without having sufficient forces to return it to own control.

    At the regional level, Ankara wants to position itself as the most important player in the matter of resolving the Syrian crisis. Turkey is actively supporting only those formations in Syria, which are loyal to and affiliated with it. The purpose is to turn Syria into a country loyal to Turkey, to neutralize Kurdish armed formations, to replace the Assad government, and to create a reliable pathway for energy supplies, especially oil, to Turkey. To achieve these goals, Ankara is using the rhetoric of counter-terrorism, though in reality it will support any organization ready to help to achieve its goals.

    On the local level, Turkey’s goals and tasks consist of two parts:

    The first is to deal with Kurdish armed formations in northern Syria. Turkey is directly fighting Kurdish armed groups in northern Syria, mainly the YPG. The YPG is the core of the US-backed SDF. At the same time, the YPG is linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) both military and politically. [the YPG’s political wing, the PYD, is part of the Kurdistan Communities Union (also known KCK) together with PKK] Turkey alongside with the US and many other states consider the PKK as a terrorist group. Despite this, the YPG and the PYD as a dominating part of the SDF receive support from the US.

    The announcement that SDF bases would be used to prepare so-called “border security forces” (BSF), which would protect SDF/YPG-occupied parts of Syria, provoked a sharply negative reaction in Ankara, which accused the US of creating a “terrorist army” on the border with Turkey. If the BSF is successfully established, it would become an important step of the PYD/YPG, backed by the US, en route to establish a Kurdish semi-independent state within Syrian territory. This scenario is unacceptable for Turkey because such a state will pose a direct threat to its national security because of deep ties between the PYD/YPG and the PKK. This became one of the key reasons behind Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch against the YPG in the Syrian area of Afrin. Ahead of the operation the PYD/YPG leadership in Afrin has got multiple suggestions from the Damascus government to settle the situation by a peaceful way allowing the Syrian Army to deploy on the border with Turkey thus preventing the operation. However, all these suggestions have been rejected. After the start of the Turkish operation, the PYD accused Russia of colluding with Ankara to harm the Kurdish population.

    From January 20 to March 24, 2018, the TAF and Turkish-backed militant groups delivered a devastating blow to the YPG in Afrin and captured most of the area. Most of the YPG members and their supporters had fled to the government-controlled part of Aleppo province. The Turkish advance stopped when its forces reached positions of the Syrian Army.

    This was the second Turkish military operation carried out in northern Syria. The first one, dubbed Operation Euphrates Shield, took place in the al-Bab-Azaz-Jarabulus triangle from August 24, 2016 to March 29, 2017. The operation followed an attempt by Kurdish armed factions to link up their areas in northwestern and northeastern Syria and put an end to these plans.

    The PYD is the most influential, but not the only Kurdish political party in northern Syria. In January 2018 the PYD did not participate in the Russian-backed Sochi Congress for Syrian Dialogue. Turkey was against this, though it approved presence of another Syrian Kurdish political party – the Kurdish National Council (ENKS).

    The second goal is to keep and expand influence in the province of Idlib. The TAF started entering the province in October 2017 in the framework of the de-escalation zone agreement reached by Ankara, Teheran and Moscow in the Astana talks format. Since then, they have established 12 observation posts in the de-escalation zone. Russia have established 10 and Iran 7 posts near the de-escalation zone under the same agreement.

    Click to see the full-size image

    On May 28, 2018, 11 groups within the Turkish-backed part of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) announced the creation of the National Liberation Front (NLF) also known as Jabhat al-Wataniya lil-Tahrir. The merger was announced by Faylaq-al-Sham, the 1st and 2nd Coastal Divisions, the 1st Infantry Division, the Free Idlib Army, Jaysh al-Nasr, the Second Army, Jaysh al-Nukhba, Liwaal-Shuhdaal-Islam, Liwa Al-Hur and the 23rd Division. The NLF is headed by Faylaq-al-Sham leader, Colonel Fadlallahаl-Haji.

    National Liberation Front logo

    On the same day, an NLF official announced that the Turkey-created force will take over the Idlib de-escalation zone. Russia, Turkey, and Iran will monitor the situation for 6-12 months, after which a new phase will follow. All the groups in the region will be disbanded and a single army on the basis of the NLF will be created. Idlib will be governed by local Turkish-controlled councils with minimal influence from Russia and Iran, said Omar Khatzayafah.

    Turkish forces and their proxies have contributed no efforts to combat Hayat Tahrir al-Sham influence, which is excluded from the de-escalation. In turn, it is carrying out active attempts to increase its influence in area and save the core of the anti-Assad forces. According to available data, Turkey is conducting active negotiations with the group’s leader, Abu Muhammed al-Julani, in an attempt to convince him to rebrand the group once again and merge with the Turkey-led “opposition”. Ankara also allowed the NFL and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to carry out a large-scale crackdown on public figures, field commanders and activists supporting an idea of possible peaceful reconciliation with the Damascus government.

    Hayat Tahrir al-Sham members and supporters are in Idlib

    At the same time, the security situation in the militant-controlled part of Idlib province remains poor. Over the past few months, the area has been hit by multiple bombings and assassinations aimed at both civilian and militant targets.

    MEANS USED BY TURKEY TO ACHIEVE ITS AIMS

    When the Syrian conflict began, Turkey turned its own territory, particularly the border zone, into infrastructure used to this day by armed formations for training, rest, and medical support. The Istanbul-Gaziantep route, unofficially dubbed the “jihad-express”, was the main stream of jihadists heading for Syria in 2014-16. The Kilis-Azaz border crossing was also a major logistical hub for militants moving to Syria. Moreover, many Turkish border settlements were de-facto bases where militants were assembled and prepared for crossing the border.

    A letter dated March 15, 2013 and signed by Turkey’s Minister of the Interior Muammer Guler, stating that Hatay province was acquiring strategic importance in the context of the transfer of militants from Turkey to Syria, deserves separate treatment. The enabling of the movement within the region, the training and provision of medical aid to wounded fighters, and their crossing of the border into Syria, was mainly conducted through this province. According to the letter, Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and other organizations, which received corresponding authority, would coordinate the work with Hatay province leadership. When transitioning fighters through Hatay using land or air transport and with the participation of various civilian entities, heightened security measures were required. The letter notes that it is advantageous to place the fighters in hostels run by the Ministry of Religious Affairs and government hotels in the province, on direct instructions from the MIT. Similar letters were sent to the Mardin, Urfa, and Antepe provinces.

    Hatay hosts the camp for SAA deserters in Apaidin, only 2km from the Syrian border. In September 2012, this camp was considered the FSA headquarters, according to Mehmet Ali Ediboglu, a member of the Republican People’s Party. At that time, there were about 300 former Syrian soldiers and police, including about 30 generals, in the camp.

    In September 2013, a Deutsche Welle report mentioned that hundreds of fighters from Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations were delivered by Turkish ambulances from Syria to the Ceylinpinar hospital, and those who suffered more serious wounds were delivered to the Balikdigol hospital in Sanliurfa province. In August 2014, the Daily Mail published an article about the border town of Reyhanli, which was part of the pipeline for militants into Syria and where Turkish border guards turned a blind eye. ISIS militants rested in the city itself before crossing the border, military uniforms, and possibly also weapons, were being sold right on the streets.

    Starting in March 2015, “Syrian rebels” were trained with the help of US and Turkish soldiers at a base in Kirsehir in central Turkey. The US announced that they would fight against ISIS, but representatives of the Turkish opposition said that the trained militants would mainly fight against the Assad government.

    The Turkish authorities confirmed in March 2015 the fact of a wounded ISIS field commander, who was a Turkish citizen, undergoing treatment in the hospital in Denizli.

    As of 2016, the city of Antalya in Hatay hosted a training camp for FSA members, who were fighting participating in Operation Euphrates Shield.

    The media more than once reported the presence of a training camp for “rebels” in Adana province, 8km from the Incirlik airbase. Turkish air force officials did not comment on these reports, and journalists had no access to the base. The official justification of this approach was that the refugees and opposition fighters ought to have free movement across the border.

    Members of Jabhat al-Nusra

    Two main forces capitalizing on this situation were Jabhat al-Nusra (now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and ISIS receiving recruits, funds and weapons through Turkish territory. Furthermore, Ankara’s ties to these groups are based not only on fighting Assad, but also on economic relations, and neither Turkish soldiers nor intelligence professionals have any illusions concerning this situation.

    It’s also telling that since the start of the conflict, Turkey has sharply increased the intake of water from the Euphrates, which soon caused many Syrian cities and villages to suffer from serious shortages. As soon as the SDF took control of northeastern Syria, the intake of water reached its maximum levels. However, when ISIS was in control of this area, Turkey was keeping the water and electricity supply.

    Another major feature of the Turkish collaboration with ISIS was the matter of the security of the Tomb of Suleyman Shah, which caused disagreements among the hardened Islamists within ISIS, since in their interpretation of Islam, adoration of the dead is a sign of lack of belief and of polytheism. However, for some reason the tomb was jointly guarded by ISIS militants and Turkish soldiers. One can say with absolute certainty that there existed an agreement which assigned ISIS the role of protectors in exchange for free movement of militants from Turkey to Syria and back.

    More evidence is provided by interviews with ISIS fighters captured by the SDF. One of them was a Libyan named Osman. He was first sent on a short 22-day initial training in Bani-Valid, Libya. Then he was trained with other ISIS recruits in Misrata for 25 days. Days before the graduation Osman was hit from a PKM by a “comrade in arms”, which meant spending another 22 days in Misrata hospital. During that time he was given a fake Libyan passport and sent for treatment in Medicana International, a large Turkish hospital in the Melik Duzu quarter of Istanbul. Osman confirmed the existence of an air corridor from Libya to Turkey for ISIS militants from Africa, Tunisia, and other Maghreb countries, who wished to join their “brothers” in Syria. Wounded fighters were sent from Libya to Turkey on a private plane. “We were helped during boarding,” said Osman. Then I realized that everyone else is also severely wounded, some are even paralyzed.” At the Ataturk Airport in Istanbul ISIS fighters were met by ambulances. Soon all the wounded were placed in Turkish hospitals.

    “We were loaded singly and in pairs, after which I found myself at Medicana International”. Osman said that all ISIS movements are under Turkish intelligence oversight. They are also concerned with ensuring the wounded militants’ security. “I once had to be examined by a neurologist, for which I had to be transported to a different hospital. On the way to the hospital I was accompanied by two intelligence officers, armed with pistols.” After the treatment which took another 4 months, he was brought to a hotel close to the hospital, then to a house in the European part of Istanbul. Three days later he was contacted by a militant called Abu Masab al-Iraqi, and they met in the Ibrahim Khalil quarter of the city where he and other mercenaries were told they were going to get tickets for a plane to Urfu. Many ISIS militants and their families and children had already assembled there. Osman indicated the particular importance of two cities, Tel Abyad and Jarablus, in supplying ISIS. This corridor funneled the biggest influx of mercenaries from Turkey to Syria under the supervision of Turkish intelligence and the army. In addition to fighters, it was also used to ship weapons, munitions and uniforms.

    Another ISIS member (name unknown) said the following: “My Sudanese friend by the name Khaled Sali who was in ISIS and who lived in Azzaz, proposed I join ISIS too. I agreed because I didn’t know about other formations. He then accompanied me to Khartoum airport, from where I flew to Istanbul. There I was met by local ISIS coordinators and set me up in a hotel whose name I don’t remember. After then I was flown by a Turkish domestic airline to Gaziantep, then to Kilis on the border with Syria. My coordinator was already waiting for me in Azzaz. Crossing the border was simpler than simple. No soldiers, no police, no Turkish authorities. And if they were there, it means we crossed right under their noses.”

    Israeli military intelligence head, Major-General Aviv Kochavi said in January 2014 that the cities of Karaman, Osmaniye, and Sanliurfa house Al-Qaeda camps, which are also used as staging points.

    After the start of the Russian military operation in Syria, and multiple public revelations of Turkish links to the terrorists, like participation in the ISIS oil business, free movement of these terrorists across the border ceased. Otherwise the Erdogan government would have become a public sponsor of terrorism, which was unacceptable for Erdogan’s image. But the main reason for the closure of the border crossing was the series of defeats ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra suffered, Turkey’s re-evaluation of its strategy in Syria under Russian pressure, and a reduction in the flow of refugees.

    Pro-Turkish groups and attempts to create a unified opposition in northern Syria

    Turkey currently uses a whole range of military instruments to advance its interests. During Operation Olive Branch in January-March 2018, Turkey involved 12 following groups as a core of its proxy force: the Hamza Division, Liwa Sultan Murad, Faylaq ash-Sham, Jaysh al-Nasr, Jaysh al-Nukhba, Jabhat al-Aisalat wal-Tanmia, the 23rd Division, the 1st Coastal Division, the 2nd Coastal Division, the Free Idlib Army, the 2nd Army and Liwa Shuhada al-Islam. An estimated manpower of these groups is 31,200. Besides this, the operation also involved fighters from other groups, like Ahrar al-Sham, the Sham Legion and others. Some of these groups are now part of the National Liberation Front, created in an attempt to boost combat potential and numeric strength of pro-Turkey bloc in the province of Idlib.

    HINT: A few words about the National Liberation Front in the context of Turkish policy. It is yet another attempt by Ankara to take control of a region which is the most problem-ridden de-escalation zone (Idlib), and where al-Qaeda jihadists from HTS have much influence. In the event of direct fighting against HTS, Turkey would face the risk of being bogged down in a prolonged, hard campaign. Turkish troops already have negative experiences associated with Euphrates Shield, where Turkish forces and allied Syrian militants had difficulty in expelling ISIS out of Al-Bab, suffering heavy personnel and equipment losses. In the event of an NLF success in Idlib, Turkey would avoid unnecessary losses and obtain the means of waging military operations ostensibly using a proxy. Moreover, Turkey would also get a “bridgehead” in Syria, which could be used to effectively influence the course of the conflict and the development of the situation in northern Syria.

    Apart from that, the presence of NLF formations has economic significance. They protect the Aleppo-Hama road, which is the commercial route from Turkey to Jordan and to Persian Gulf states. Some of these goods will remain in Syria. With Syrian industry destroyed, Turkish goods can achieve dominance.

    Another entity created in order to overcome the divisions plaguing the many groups controlled by Ankara is the Syrian National Army (SNA).

    A Turkish-staged ceremony of the SNA announcement

    It was intended to serve as a force against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib if negotiations between Turkey and the group fail. The SNA will also participate in operations against Kurdish armed groups and will be responsible for consolidating the territories captured by Turkey-led forces. Finally, the creation of the SNA is an effort to re-brand so-called democratic activists after they have tarnished their image with war crimes or with collaboration with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

    As of today, the SNA is mainly operating in the al-Bab-Azaz-Jarabulus triangle and in Afrin. When operations in northern Syria are complete, all SNA forces from Jarablus to Idlib should be under a single command.

    The main force of the SNA are its 1, 2, and 3 Corps. The SNA formation is proceeding parallel to that of the National Liberation Front. The SNA, formed on May 30, 2017 as a separate force from the FSA, is a new army divided into three corps, consisting of 36 opposition groups under the aegis of the FSA. As of January 2018, it was still being formed and included 25,000 members.

    The SNA has received and is receiving support from Liwa Suquoral-Shimal, Ahraral-Sharqiyya, Jaysh al-Nukhba, Faylaq ash-Sham, Liwa Sultan Suleiman Shah, Liwa Sultan Mehmed Fatih, Liwa al-Vakkas, Jabhat Shamiyah, Liwa Muntassir Billah, Liwa Sultan Murad, Jayshal-Shimal, Liwa Samarkand, the 23rd Division, the 9th Division, Fevjal-Mustafa, Liwaal-Awwal al-Magahaweer, Liwa Usudul-Fatiheen, Jayshal-Ahfad, Festaqem Kema Umrit, the Hamza Division, Liwa Asifat Hazm, Jabhat al-Aisalat wal-Tanmia, Jayshal-Nasr, Liwa Hasakah Shield, Jaysh al-Sharqiyya, Liwaal-Fatih, Liwa Sultan Osman, Rejalal-Harb, Liwa al-Shimal, the 5th Regiment, Jaysh al-Thani and Tacammu Adl.

    The first reports of the Turkey-controlled Free Syrian Police (FSP) appeared in January 2017. Police units were formed in Jarablus as part of Operation Euphrates Shield, in order to help the FSA in their rear areas. By October 25, 2017, the Turkey Police Academy had graduated 5,631 Syrian police officers in 5 different schools, according to Anadolu Agency police sources. Syrian policemen were trained to provide security and protection in regions covered by the operation. Some 20% of the participants received SWAT training.

    Starting on May 10, 2018, after training in Turkey 620 FSP are ensuring security in north-west Afrin. The cadets, aged between 18 and 45, undergo a month-long training regimen, according to Anadolu. A video posted by Yeni Safak newspaper in January 2017 showed a group of security forces dressed in Turkish police uniforms, chanting “long live Turkey, long live Erdogan and long live a free Syria.”

    In the autumn of 2018, the situation in Idlib and nearby militant-held areas become the main point of attention of the international media covering the conflict in Syria. The rationale for Turkey’s collaboration with Idlib armed groups is the desire to expand its own influence, while preserving the radical segment of these formations as a shock force to continue exerting pressure on the Assad government, Iran and Russia.

    The pattern of working with these groups in the province is set up as follows:

    • Small armed groups which did well in Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch are under nearly full operational control;

    • Groups united around Ahrar al-Sham, known as the Syrian Liberation Front, are under partial control;

    • Al Qaeda in Syria (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and their allies) are in a state of “fruitful cooperation”, with less than total control (less than the SLF);

    • The future of small groups not included in the above categories due to their links with ISIS and al-Qaeda (for example, the remnants of Jund al-Aqsa or Hilf Nusrat al-Islam) is yet to be determined.

    • ISIS cells in Idlib. Turkey and its local allies have been fighting them with varying success. The problem is that, ideologically, the core of pro-Turkish groups and their allies is quite similar to ISIS. This is made worse by the horrifying level of corruption in and violence by the security forces of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Liberation Front, which are the only forces capable of relatively significant action against ISIS cells.

    Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains the dominant military force in Idlib, alongside the Syrian Liberation Front. The problem of the Turkish approach is that the stronger the force, the harder it is to control it “behind closed doors” without offering guarantees. Hence various “PR armies” such as the SNA. While sabotaging the fight against terrorists, Ankara is strenuously pretending it is forming the “moderate opposition”. In the short term the odds of the pro-Turkey “moderate opposition” defeating terrorism in Idlib with Ankara’s help are minimal. The Turkish stance toward a possible military operation against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies in Idlib by the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance is proof of it, if additional proof were needed.

    The total amount of financing provided to militant groups in Syria from Turkey has never been assessed, but it’s in the tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars a year. It has varied at different stages of conflict, and was disbursed through various sources.

    In 2012-2016, the main source of financing was aid from foreign sponsors. Ankara was not too shy to use funds from the US, Persian Gulf monarchies, domestic or foreign volunteers supporting these or other groups. One should also include the CIA program worth $500 million to train “Syrian insurgents”. The 2015-16 migration crisis led to EU-Turkey negotiations on financial aid to Ankara, in return for which Turkey housed the refugees. Turkey asked for €30 billion up front, to be followed by annual payments of €3 billion, but it’s not known how much Turkey actually received, though there was an agreement on €3 billion in 2016 and another €3 by 2018. Considering the numerous world media reports on the terrible conditions for refugees in Turkey, it’s likely the money is mostly being used to finance groups fighting Assad, while refugees are given the lowest priority. Moreover, the Turkish Ministry of Defense and the MIT probably have budget items which are used to finance armed groups, though these would obviously be classified.

    As the flow of jihadists and activities of volunteers declined, opposition groups fighting in Syria apparently shifted to self-sufficiency, which looks as follows: Turkey provides weapons, munitions, equipment, transportation and training. In return it receives resources from the occupied territory—oil, agricultural and industrial products. The priority is given to Turkey-manufactured goods in trade on occupied territory.

    Turkey also continues to play the role of a clearing house for financing, though now to a lesser extent. One should note the widespread hawala system, an informal financial accounting system which is based on a balance of mutual credits and obligations among brokers and which is widespread in Muslim countries. The Money Services Business is also widespread in Turkey. What they all have in common is an absence of accounting transparency as understood in the West. For example: during a chat on Whats App or another messenger, an individual raising funds indicates the transfer should take place through an entity working with Western Union in Turkey. The recommended contribution varies from $500 and $9500, can be repeated, and is difficult to track. The fund-raiser provides contact information and asks the sponsor to provide a secret code after the transfer in order to collect the money in a town on the Syrian border.

    Turkey uses various range of ideologically divided groups ranging from neo-osmanist and pan-turkic to ultra-radical Islamist ones, which are incompatible with the current Syrian government. This shows that in order to fulfill his own political ambitions, Erdogan is ready to make alliances with almost anybody who may serve his interests.

    According to UNHCR, in April 2018 there were 3.9 million refugees from Syria in Turkey. Such a number of people cannot help but attract the attention of the Turkish military and intelligence for the purpose of ideological indoctrination and recruitment to fight a war for the new Syria, as envisioned by Erdogan.

    A more detailed look at some Turkish-backed groups operating in northern Syria:

    Hamza Division. Syrian nationalism. It numbered about 2,200 in September 2017 according to its own reports, and consists mostly of Arabs, Syrian Turkmen, and Kurds. It has its HQ in Mare, Aleppo province, where it operates and its commander in September 2017 was Abdullah Halawa. It cooperates with the Northern Thunder Brigade, the Mare’ Resistance Brigade, the Special Operations Brigade, the Dhi Qar Brigade and the Kurdish Falcons Brigade.

    Liwa Sultan Murad. Pan-Turkishm. In 2016, it claimed to have 1,300 troops in 2016, mostly Syrian Turkmen and Arabs. Together with other Turkmen organizations, such as Liwa Sultan Suleiman Shah, Liwa Sultan Mehmed Fatih and Liwa Sultan Osman, it forms the Sultan Murad bloc. According to Turkish sources, Liwa Sultan Mehmed Fatih units undergo training in Turkey itself, though the location of the camp is unknown. It has its HQ in Al-Bab, Aleppo province. The commander as of November 2017 was Mahmoud al-Hajj Hassan.

    Faylaq ash-Sham. Salafism. It has about 4,000 members, mostly Arabs. It’s based in Aleppo province, but its zone of responsibility also includes Idlib, Latakia, Hama, and Homs provinces. The commander as of early 2018 was Yasser Abdul Rahim, who was a key field commander during Operation Olive Branch. In February 2018 he was replaced by Khaldun Mador, and currently the commander is Colonel Fadlallahal-Haji. This formation served as the base for the National Liberation Front and the commander of Faylaq ash-Sham became the commander of this new formation. In June 2018 it was joined by Liwa Shuhada al-Islam, who numbers 799. It collaborates with the Army of Mujahideen, the Muslim Brotherhood of Syria, and there are reports of close collaboration with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

    Jaysh al-Nasr. Salafism. It had 5,000 members, mainly Arabs, as of 2015. Its HQ is in Qalaatal-Madiq, Hama province and its zone of responsibility includes Idlib, Latakia, Hama, and Aleppo provinces. It was commanded by Muhammad Mansour as of early 2018. With the formation of National Liberation Front, Mansour became its deputy commander and chief of staff. The group collaborates closely with Tahrir al-Sham, Jaysh al-Izza and Ahrar ash-Sham.

    Jaysh al-Nukhba. It collaborates with groups pursuing Syrian nationalism and Salafism. Its strength was 3,000, mostly Arabs, as of early 2017, according to its own statements. Its Aleppo province HQ is located in Jarablus, its Idlib province HQ in Kafr Nabl, and its zone of responsibility covers Idlib, Latakia, Hama, and Aleppo provinces. This formation is part of the Hawar Kilis Operations Room, the biggest pro-Turkey FSA group. It was commanded by Mohammed Ahmedal-Sayed in early 2017 and collaborates with Jaysh al-Nasr, Ahrar ash-Sham and the Free Idlib Army.

    Jabhat al-Aisalat wal-TanmiaSalafism. It had 5,000 members, mostly Arabs, in late 2015. Its zone of responsibility is Aleppo province and it is part of the Hawar Kilis Operations Room. The group collaborates with Jaysh al-Islam and Ahrar ash-Sham.

    23rd Division. Islamic democracy. It numbered 1,400, mostly Arabs, in late 2014. Its HQ is in Qah, Idlib province and its zone of responsibility covers the northern Idlib and Aleppo provinces. Commanded by Abu Mustafa in early 2018, it collaborates with Ahrar ash-Sham, the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement and Festaqem Kema Umrit.

    1st Coastal Division. Pan-Turkism. 2800 strong in 2015, it is made up of mostly Syrian Turkmen and Arabs. Its zone of responsibility covers Idlib and Latakia and as of 2014 its commander was Muhammad Haj Ali. It collaborates closely with Tahrir al-Sham, Ahrar ash-Sham and the Turkistan Islamic Party.

    2nd Coastal Division. Pan-Turkism. It numbered around 500, mostly Syrian Turkmen, in 2015. Its zone of responsibility includes Aleppo and Latakia and its commander is Tarik Solak. It collaborates closely with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (in the province of Latakia) and Ahrar ash-Sham.

    Free Idlib Army. Syrian nationalism. According to its own account it numbered around 6000, mostly Arabs, in 2016. It has headquarters in the towns of Maaratal-Numaan and Kafr Nabal in the province of Idlib. Its zone of responsibility covers the provinces of Idlib, Latakia and Aleppo. It includes the 13th Division, the Northern Division and the Mountain Hawks Brigade. Currently they are commanded by Suhaib Leoush. They collaborate closely with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Ahrar ash-Sham and Faylaq ash-Sham.

    2nd Army. Syrian nationalism and Islamic democracy. In June 2017 it counted around 1500 members, mostly Arabs. Its zone of responsibility covers Idlib, Latakia and Hama. It includes Division 46, Division 312, and Division 314 and its commander in June 2017 was Mohammed Khaled Khleif. There are reports that they have fought with ISIS in the North of Syria.

    Liwa Shuhda al-IslamModerate Islam. It had around 700 members, mostly Arabs, in June 2017. Its HQ is in Idlib, Hama and Rif Dimashq. Its commander, Saeed Naqrash, was captured by unknown individuals in April 2018. The group blames Tahrir al-Sham for the kidnapping, which they deny. There are reports of close collaboration with the Islamic Union of the Soldiers of the Levant.

    TURKISH DIPLOMATIC APPROACH TOWARD NORTHERN SYRIA

    Northern Syria is a big knot of contradictions, with every party (Syria, Turkey, Iran, Russia, and of course the US) seeking to implement their own plans.

    The Assad government is still viewed as illegitimate by Ankara, though Erdogan prefers not to mention it officially if this is possible. Turkish authorities have also repeatedly claimed that Ankara is fulfilling its obligations under the de-escalation zones agreement. However, no practical steps have been made by Ankara to separate Turkish-backed “moderate” factions from the terrorist groups in Idlib or to combat the terrorists there.

    Turkey considered ISIS and Kurdish armed groups to be terrorists. After ISIS suffered defeat, Kurdish armed groups remained the only point in that category. Some Kurdish leaders hoped that Erdogan may lose the presidential election and thus the Turkish stance on the Kurdish issue in northern Syria will soften. However, this has never happened.

    Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, (r), Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, (c), and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani pose for the media members in Sochi, Russia, November 22. 2017. (Kayhan Ozer/Pool via AP)

    On June 4, 2018, Ankara and Washington approved the “road map” for the town of Manbij in northern Aleppo, which is currently controlled by the Kurdish-dominated SDF. According to Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, the first phase of the “road map” would see a withdrawal of Kurdish units from the town, which would come under joint patrols of Turkish and US troops. Turkish top officials also claimed that the agreement implied creating a town administration out of local inhabitants after the Kurdish armed groups’ departure. Turkey also insisted that all Kurdish armed groups within the SDF have to be disarmed or even disbanded in the framework of the roadmap.

    Nonetheless, the turn of events appeared to be at odds with Ankara’s desires. The YPG once again claimed that it had withdrawn its members from Manbij. US and Turkish forces started patrols north of the town, on the contact line between the SDF/YPG and Turkish-held areas. No Turkish troops entered Manbij. The political and military control over the town remained in the hands of the YPG-affiliated bodies. Furthermore, the US continued providing Kurdish fighters with various military supplies, including weapons and armoured vehicles, and training. No further joint US-Turkish steps to settle the Manbij issue in favor of the Erdogan government were made.

    Moreover, the problem is also that for Erdogan, Afrin, Al-Bab, and Manbij are not enough. He has repeatedly vowed to completely clear Kurish armed groups from the area from Manbij to Sinjar, which means operations in Qamishli, Kobani and Haskah, the main YPG strongholds in Syria. Thus, in order to achieve own goals the Erdogan government is balancing between the US-led bloc and the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance.

    From Russia’s point of view, the strategic priority is Syria’s territorial integrity and the prevention of radical islamists from coming to power. Russia is open to dialogue with a moderate part of the Syrian opposition and is ready to participate in the talks. The leadership likely understands that Turkey is a temporary ally of Russia in Syria, where the two countries together with Iran are guaranteeing the ceasefire in de-escalation zones.

    Thus, some Russian experts claim that Turkey is allied with the US against Russia, which does have some basis. Turkey is in NATO, Ankara has supported and is still supporting the opposition, especially radical armed groups in Idlib, which are not willing to negotiate with Assad. The conflict of objectives between Turkey and the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance has become obvious when the SAA started preparing for a possible military operation in Idlib.

    However, Turkey’s, Syria’s, and therefore also Russia’s interests coincide on the question of Syrian Kurdistan. After Russian forces were dispatched to Syria and particularly after the liberation of Aleppo in 2017, Moscow tried to act as an intermediary between the Kurds and Damascus, trying to convince the latter to create Kurdish autonomy. But the Kurdish leaders rejected talks with Damascus and instead placed their hopes in an alliance with the US. It does not matter whether they picked that option because they felt Washington was the best hope to gain quick independence for Rojava or because of a cash stimulus from US emissaries. Most likely both factors played a role. The prospect of a pro-US Kurdish “independent” state formation was extremely worrisome to Ankara, Damascus, and Tehran, prompting them to close ranks.

    Thus, the Kurds have lost their chance to get a wide autonomy within Syria and become a bargaining chip in the negotiations between major players involved in the conflict.

    The Astana process format also deserves a few words. In the framework of this formant, Russia, Turkey, and Iran have affirmed their determination to fight terrorism and also those organizations which are considered terrorist by the UNSC, oppose separatism aimed at undermining territorial integrity and the sovereignty of Syria and the security of neighboring countries, continue joint efforts to promote political reconciliation among the Syrians themselves in order to facilitate the earliest possible launch of the Constitutional Committee in Geneva. But the actual situation is radically different. Ankara de-facto controls part of Syria, with the fight against Kurdish armed groups and the expansion of own influence in the war-torn country being the motives. Turkey also lacks a UNSC mandate or a permission from Damascus to deploy forces in the country. These are undoubtedly violations of Ankara’s commitments to the Astana agreements and of Syria’s sovereignty. The participation of the Syrian opposition in the negotiations is also a problem. Many factions just sabotage the talks.  Moreover, there are no significant results in the realm of political decisions on the country’s future, even though they sides continue to affirm their unity in this effort. One could draw the conclusion that the Astana format is not effective and is only a platform for meetings among heads of states, since each country and Turkey in particular is pursuing its own interests.

    If one examines Russian participation in the conflict, there is still no evidence that Russia plans to impose a solution for a future Syria by force. Troops and equipment are being withdrawn from Hmeimim, which indicates a gradual drawdown of the military operation and a shift towards diplomatic means. However, while it’s possible to observe the successful implementation of this approach in some separate regions of the country, it has faced significant difficulties on the regional level.

    CONCLUSION

    In the last decade, Turkey’s foreign policy underwent significant changes which transformed its theoretical and practical foundations. The term “neo-Ottomanism” was launched in the context of Turkey’s expanding international activities in the scientific and political realm. While the international community interprets it in a number of ways, it does contain a clear ideological component. Moreover, neo-Ottomanism is the most appropriate term to describe Turkey’s foreign policy ideology and actions. Ankara seeks to become a world power, and that goal drives its activities, particularly concerning the Arab Spring and the war in Syria.

    There are many potential clashes of interests between Turkey and Syria, including the Kurdish issue, mutual territorial claims, and ideological and political incompatibility. Since the very start of the protests in Syria, Turkey has rendered and continues to render help to the armed groups and political opposition. Moreover, the bilateral relations are made more complicated by the Euphrates river (nearly half the water is taken by Turkey which deprives countries downstream of water), the looting of industrial enterprises of the manufacturing center of Syria – Aleppo (equipment from nearly 1,000 factories were transported to Turkey). Ankara still believes Assad ought to leave his post, although in the last year its rhetoric concerning Assad’s legitimacy has softened. This was due to the growth of Russian influence on the theater of operations, military defeat suffered by several groups backed by Turkey, and also by the political and economic pressure exerted by Moscow after the Su-24 incident. This shaped Turkish policy toward Syria.

    In the best outcome scenario for Syria, Iran, and Russia, Turkey would not plan to annex the Syrian territory it controls in the north of the country in order to avoid a negative reaction from these three states. These territories may be used as bargaining chips in order to gain preferential treatment for work in post-war Syria, thus expanding and strengthening its sphere of influence in that country and strengthening Turkey as a regional power. It’s possible that the Syrian border territories will see something akin to a trans-border protectorate, without redrawing national boundaries. Turkey has already transformed the agglomeration of its proxies into something like a unified opposition, with whom Ankara imagines Assad will discuss the future of Syria, thus giving it a place in the war-destroyed country and thus ensuring Turkey’s interests are safeguarded.

    In the contemporary military and diplomatic reality surrounding the Syrian crisis, Ankara is pursuing the following tactical goals:

    • To eliminate or at least disarm and limit influence of US-backed Kurdish armed groups in northern Syria;

    • To strengthen a united pro-Turkish opposition Idlib and to eliminate any resistance to it, including in some scenarios the elimination of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies;

    • To facilitate return of refugees from Turkey to Syrian areas under its own control;

    If these goals are achieved, Ankara will significantly increase its influence on the diplomatic settlement of the crisis and on the future of the post-war Syria. The returned refugees and supporters of militant groups in the Turkish-controlled part of Syria will become an electoral base of pro-Turkish political figures and parties in case of the implementation of the peaceful scenario. If no wide-scale diplomatic deal on the conflict is reached, one must consider the possibility of a pro-Turkish quasi-state in northern Syria, confirming the thesis that Erdogan is seeking to build a neo-Ottoman empire.

  • US Defense Agency Wants Battlespace To Combat Russia And China Hypersonic Weapons

    The US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) submitted a request for highly maneuvrable Mach 5 missile interceptors to combat the hypersonic threat from Russia and China. The solicitation was submitted to the Department of Defense (DOD) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) Program, a congressionally mandated program coordinated by the Small Business Administration (SBA) to obtain innovative defense solutions from private industry to address defense technology gaps.

    “The technology within this topic is restricted under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), which controls the export and import of defense-related material and services. Offerors must disclose any proposed use of foreign nationals, their country of origin, and what tasks each would accomplish in the statement of work in accordance with section 5.4.c.(8) of the Announcement,” said the MDA.

    According to the description of the solicitation, the MDA is searching for hypersonic missiles that have extraordinary aerodynamic controls to intercept Russian or Chinese hypersonic weapons.

    “Concepts should focus on maximizing maneuverability and minimizing kinetic energy losses to the greatest extent possible while allowing controlled flight in a hypersonic environment.

    Studies may include various geometries, materials, positioning for control surfaces, or other innovative concepts. Proposers may assume vehicles are simple conical shapes or shapes with greater lift-drag ratios. Proposers may also assume a range of velocities above Mach 5 and a range of altitudes up to 50 kilometers. Solutions could have applicability to small interceptors, such as projectiles shorter than one meter or larger interceptors, such as missiles over 5 meters long,” said the MDA.

    MDA recently asked for $120.4 million in FY19 for hypersonic defense research. Current missile interceptors are not designed to defend against hypersonic missiles, and that MDA wants to transform interceptors into anti-hypersonic weapons.

    The request provides a complete breakdown of how the program will rollout once the MDA selects the proper technology.

    • PHASE I: Perform analysis on promising aerodynamic control concepts to include modeling and/or limited wind tunnel assessment. Estimate the maneuverability and kinetic energy loss for maneuvers at a range of Mach numbers and altitudes. Down select to one or two preferred design concepts.
    • PHASE II: Work with a missile defense system integrator to mature the selected geometry and design. Obtain higher fidelity estimates of performance. Test in a representative environment such as a wind tunnel.
    • PHASE III DUAL-USE APPLICATIONS: Work with a system integrator to refine requirements and integrate into a full guidance navigation and control system. Demonstrate the technology in a representative environment. Transition the technology into a missile defense application.

    Earlier this month, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) debuted its Glide Breakers program at D60 Symposium, a three-day conference honoring the organization’s 60th anniversary.

    The program will research “component technologies” needed for one or more defense systems but will focus heavily on a kinetic-force weapon to intercept high-speed enemy missiles.

    With Russia and China jumping ahead of the US with superior hypersonic weapons, it seems that multiple agencies within the Pentagon are seeking to develop various forms of hypersonic interceptors — on short notice.

    While many believe American Hegemony is here to stay, there is a strong possibility that it could be somewhat displaced in the coming years as China and Russia now lead the hypersonic race. MDA’s request for Mach 5 hypersonic missile interceptors and DARPA’s Glide Breaker program, should be viewed as a defensive maneuver by Washington, as US Admiral Harry Harris, former head of the US Pacific Command and now the ambassador to South Korea, said, “China’s hypersonic weapons development outpaces ours… we’re falling behind.”

  • Britain Joins US In Unwise Confrontation In The South China Sea

    Authored by Brian Cloughley via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The US research agency Stratfor has forecast that “the United States will solidify its naval presence in the South China Sea and continue building up defence and economic ties along China’s periphery from Taiwan to Southeast Asia,” and given the all-embracing belligerence that seems to envelope Washington, its analysts are probably right. There are few countries or international accords that are not targeted by the malevolence of a president who declared at his inauguration that “it’s going to be only America first, America first” and whose disciples applaud his erratic lurches from truculent insults to maudlin self-pity.

    In November 2017 Trump visited Vietnam and “called for all South China Sea claimants to clarify and comport their maritime claims in accordance with the international law of the sea as reflected in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea [UNCLOS] and to implement their international legal obligations in good faith in managing or resolving these disputes.”

    The main problem about this self-satisfied drivel is that, as Voice of America reported in 2016, “the US has not accepted UNCLOS because of opposition from Republicans in the Senate, where treaties must be approved by a two-thirds’ vote.” And in 2018 the Congress is still controlled by Republicans and they still haven’t agreed to ratify the Convention. Why should they? It goes against everything that Washington stands for in the way of America First, which sentiment excludes anything at all that might commit the US to international law.

    So the Pentagon continues to send nuclear-capable bombers and missile-equipped warships and electronic warfare aircraft around and over the South China Sea, to make it clear to China that the most important thing to Washington in the region is its military domination of China’s coast. The most recent confrontational activity was three months ago when the US Navy’s Antietam, a guided-missile cruiser, and the Higgins guided-missile destroyer were sent to try to provoke Chinese reaction by operating within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Islands. They didn’t just pass through the Paracels : they conducted tactical manoeuvres among the islets, but this didn’t prevent a spokesman for the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet telling Time magazine, presumably without a smirk on his face, that the operations “are not about one country, nor are they about making political statements.”

    Britain, which is roughly the same distance from the South China Sea as America (10,000 km as against 12,000 km) decided to join Washington in making political statements by sending HMS Albion, an Amphibious Assault Ship of Britain’s Royal Navy to mimic US antics in the region.

    Albion is impressive-looking but is not a combat vessel, because its mission is simply to deliver troops and equipment to a previously secured landing area. But off it went to the South China Sea to sail along and conduct a so-called ‘freedom of navigation exercise’ on August 31 in the waters round the Paracel Islands, which the Brits declared was “in full compliance with international law.”

    On June 27, a month after the last US Navy venture against China and two months before the UK’s Royal Navy was ordered by its government to imitate the US ships’ fandangos, China’s ambassador to Britain noted that there was no problem with freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and that “The reality is that more than 100,000 merchant ships pass through these waters every year and none has ever run into any difficulty with freedom of navigation. Despite some disputes between China and some of its neighbours, maintaining stability in the South China Sea has been a matter of consensus for all the countries in this region. The overall situation has been stable, thanks to the joint efforts of all the regional partners.”

    There was absolutely no need for a British warship to sail close to any of the islands where China has for decades had a large presence. On its way to Vietnam from Japan, the Albion had no reason whatever to pass close to any of the Paracels. It could have sailed more directly from Tokyo to Ho Chi Minh City with no problem at all — and it would have used less fuel. But the UK government authorised the Navy’s spokesman to declare that “HMS Albion exercised her rights for freedom of navigation in full compliance with international law and norms.”

    The object of the operation was to try to provoke China to take action against yet another instance of foreign military coat-trailing in a region in which Britain has no territorial claims and no local alliances. It was following Washington’s policy of trying to irritate China, and in this it succeeded, although it was most unwise to do so.

    When Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May was in Beijing in January 2018, one of her more important observations was that her visit would “intensify the golden era in UK-China relations.” And a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said Beijing saw Mrs May’s trip as “an opportunity to achieve new development of the China-UK global comprehensive strategic partnership.” It seemed at the time that bilateral relations were at least practical, and could even progress to the commercially cordial.

    There were, after all, trade deals agreed worth some 9 billion pounds, and PM May declared that as “the UK is preparing to leave the European Union we’re seizing the opportunity to become an ever-more outward-looking Global Britain, deepening our trade relations with nations around the world — including China.”

    But Mrs May was sadly mistaken if she imagined for one moment that a “golden era” of Sino-UK relations would be welcomed by China after her silly and totally needless aggravation in the South China Sea. On September 7 the Chinese reaction to Britain’s “freedom of navigation” frolic was “Britain’s actions were wrong. They clearly violated the consensus and spirit put forward by Britain’s leadership that they wished to build a golden era in ties with China. This certainly will unfavourably influence the further development of the China-Britain relationship.”

    The China-UK trade balance is in China’s favour, but Britain needs China much more than China needs Britain — and this will be especially so when the UK exits the European Union, which will engage further and more deeply with China in many ways.

    Just as in its relations with Russia, it would serve Britain better to cease posturing and try moderation with China. It is very easy, and no doubt enjoyable in a juvenile way, to leap up and down and insult other countries, but it is wiser to be restrained and balanced. What happens in the South China Sea is nothing to do with Britain, which has plenty of Brexit problems on its plate without looking for more complications. 

  • The 10 Cities Are Where Millennials Carry the Most Debt

    According to a new LendingTree study, the typical urban millennial carries $23,064 of debt living in the biggest US cities. Student loans, auto loans, and credit card debt are the most popular forms of consumer debt (excluding mortgages) for Millennials.

    “The millennial generation makes up the younger portion of adults, and as they build their careers, families and communities, they’re doing it encumbered by personal debt,” said Kali McFadden, the LendingTree senior research analyst who administered the study.

    LendingTree analyst examined anonymized credit card report data from My LendingTree users who live in US metros. They looked at debt balances (excluding mortgages) for those born between 1981 and 1996, and determined a shocking revelation:

    • Millennials have the biggest non-mortgage median debt obligations
    • The average breakdown of debt obligations by five different debt types: student, auto, credit cards, personal loans and other

    The results provided a stunning snapshot of millennials’ debt balances, along with geographical data.

    Here are some of the key findings from the report:

    • Millennials in San Antonio, Pittsburgh, and Austin, Texas, shoulder the largest debt burdens of the 50 biggest metro areas, with median non-mortgage debts of $27,122, $26,403 and $26,164, respectively.
    • Three California cities — San Jose, Sacramento and Los Angeles — have the lowest median balances on our list at $18,376, $18,691 and $19,299, respectively.
    • Student debt makes up the largest share of millennial debt, accounting for 40% of their total credit and loan balances. The proportion of student debt was highest in Philadelphia, at 49.1% of the average debt burden, and lowest in San Jose at 24.1%. This was also the largest debt category for millennials in 35 of the 50 cities we reviewed.
    • Auto loan debt was the biggest debt burden of the other 15 metros and averaged about 33% of millennials’ average total debt balances. Auto loans accounted for over 43% of the average debt for millennials in Riverside, Calif., and San Antonio, but just over 22% of New York City millennials’ debt.

    The follow map breaks down where Millennials carry the most debt (excluding mortgages) 

    The report reveals that Millennials in the South and Rust Belt regions appear to be borrowing the most – 80% of the cities are in these areas. Texas, in particular, is number one on the list. If you are a millennial living in San Antonio, Austin, Houston, and or Dallas — you are most likely broke and heavily indebted.

    Half of the millennials in these cities have outstanding debts totaling $25,000 or more (not including mortgages). And 25 percent of millennials in these cities owe lenders more than $50,000.

    The composition of these debts was similar to the national average, with student debt and auto loans accounting for a majority of millennials’ outstanding credit balances.

    Here is the list of cities where millennials are entirely broke:

    Another part of the studied looked at 10 cities where millennials have the lowest debts. The report notes that several of the nation’s most expensive cities, such as San Jose, Los Angeles and New York City, are where millennials owe the least

    “It’s worth noting that low debt burdens aren’t necessarily a good thing when thinking about the economic vibrancy of a community,” McFadden pointed out.

    “Some people have lower debt burdens because they don’t have access to credit, for instance, or haven’t completed college,” she said.

    McFadden added that a lack of debt in some cities is a troubling sign that millennials cannot afford or cannot qualify to expand credit.

    Here is the list of cities where millennials have less debt: 

    And now it all makes sense, millennials are coming to age as America’s most stressed generation because of the massive debt loads they have incurred. What happens next is horrifying, as they will be the next generation to deleverage in the upcoming economic downturn.

  • End-Times Persecution? World's Largest Country Is Destroying 1000s Of Crosses And Bibles

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The American Dream blog,

    Many Christians in the western world don’t even realize that the persecution of the end times has already started.  All over the world, Christians are being attacked, Bibles are being burned and churches are being shut down.  This persecution has been escalating for quite some time, but what prompted me to write this article today was the dramatic change that we have witnessed in China this year.  Up to this point, the Chinese government has largely tolerated the booming house church movement, but now that era of toleration is officially over.  New religious regulations that went into effect in February are being brutally enforced, and this is causing some to point out the frightening parallels between Communist China and Nazi Germany.

    According to Fox News, during this new crackdown Chinese government officials have been “destroying crosses, burning bibles, closing churches and forcing Christian believers to sign papers renouncing their faith”…

    The Chinese government is destroying crosses, burning bibles, closing churches and forcing Christian believers to sign papers renouncing their faith as the crackdown on religious congregations in Beijing and several provinces intensifies.

    The suppression of religious freedoms is part of an official campaign to “Sinicize” religion by demanding loyalty to the atheist Communist party and removing any potential challenge to the party’s power in the country.

    Doesn’t that sound quite similar to Nazi Germany and other tyrannical regimes?

    If Christians refuse to sign these papers, they could lose their jobs or be cut off from all government benefits.

    So let us pray for strength for our brothers and sisters in China, because many of them will be confronted with some very hard choices.

    According to the Express, authorities have also “raided Christian homes to remove religious symbols, arrested church members and seized churches”.  In Henan province alone, more than 7,000 crosses have been destroyed, but other than Fox News most of the mainstream media outlets in the United States have been completely silent about this very important story.

    You can see some footage of Bibles being burned in China on Twitter right here.  This is evil on a level that is hard to describe, and it seems to be getting worse with each passing month.

    Earlier this month, one pastor was heartbroken after authorities burned crosses, Bibles and furniture after a raid on his church…

    A Christian Pastor in the Henan city of Nanyang, whose name was not identified out of fear of retaliation by the authorities, reportedly confirmed that crosses, bibles and furniture were burned during a raid on his church on Sept. 5.

    He added that local authorities were in discussions with the church about reforming it, but no agreement had been reached.

    According to Chinese laws, religious believers are allowed to worship only in government-sanctioned congregations. But many millions of Christians belong to underground or house churches that ignore government regulations.

    So exactly what kind of “reform” did the authorities have in mind?

    Basically, China wants churches to look like something out of a George Orwell novel.  The following comes from CBN

    Chinese Christians report authorities have urged church leaders to remove pictures of Jesus from their sanctuaries and replace them with patriotic posters, or posters of President Xi instead. They’ve suggested hymns be replaced with patriotic songs about the “wonderfulness of the Chinese Communist Party.”

    Nettleton also said Chinese authorities are using advanced artificial intelligence software to monitor church attendees.

    “One pastor in Beijing not long ago was told by the government, ‘pastor we don’t mind if you continue holding your services, we just want to put this camera on your platform looking out at the audience and it’s attached to facial recognition software so that we can tell who comes to church on Sunday and who’s there and what they are doing and how involved they are,’” he said.

    Could you imagine going to a church like that?

    I couldn’t.

    Ladies and gentlemen, this is it.

    This is the persecution of the last days, and it is only going to get worse.

    In addition to everything else, the Chinese government is banning just about all expressions of faith on the Internet

    In addition to these attacks, the Chinese government is implementing tight restrictions on online content related to religion. Images and descriptions of religious activities will be largely prohibited, with exceptions for organizations that have obtained licenses from the government — and even then, what kinds of religious content they may share is restricted. As the Telegraph reports, “Individuals would be forbidden from posting photos, videos and even text related to religious activities, or sharing links related to preaching.”

    This will happen here in the United States too eventually if we don’t fight it.

    And of course it isn’t just in China that we are seeing a rise in persecution.

    Just a couple weeks ago, Islamic radicals viciously attacked home churches in Egypt

    Homes of Copts in the Minya region were attacked by hundreds of furious locals leaving two Christians with knife wounds in the head and face, World Watch Monitor reports.

    Four homes were ransacked, looted and partially set on fire by a Muslim mob during the three-hour-long attack, which was reportedly in protest of one of the properties being used as a home church.

    A local source for Christian persecution watchdog World Watch Monitor said the small Coptic community had been warned about the attack on August 31 a few days before it took place.

    And earlier this year in Ethiopia, a total of 69 churches were torched by radical Islamists…

    On March 2nd, Muslims went on a rampage in an Islamic area of Ethiopia, beginning with an assault on churches in Asendabo. ICC and others alerted the world and called on the Ethiopian government to intervene. Unfortunately, the local government did not intervene and the attacks continued for a week. When the smoke cleared, the damage was evident. The Muslims had burned down the homes of 30 Christian leaders, they had killed one Christian, wounded several others, and torched 69 churches, a Bible school, and a Christian orphanage. One of the many wounded in these attacks was the grandson of a church elder who put himself in between the Muslim militants and his grandfather when they arrived to kill the elderly man. The Islamists attacked the young man with machetes – seriously wounding his head and hand and leaving him for dead. His family was forced to make a three-hour journey on foot to bring him to a hospital in a nearby city.

    Hatred for Christians and the Christian faith is rapidly rising all over the planet, and this was something that I warned about in my book about Bible prophecy.  We should do all that we can to put pressure on governments to stop persecuting Christians, but if we really are in the end times, ultimately the persecution is just going to continue to escalate.

    The good news is that persecution always brings out the best in the people of God, and I believe that the greatest chapters of the Church are still ahead.

    So let us pray for our persecuted brothers and sisters all over the world, and let us also prepare ourselves for the immense persecution that is on the horizon for all of us.

  • Fortnite Game Addiction Blamed For 200 Divorces

    Fortnite is not just the most popular video game in the world. It seems it is also a relationship destroyer.

    According to DivorceOnline, a UK-based online divorce service offering affordable legal advice, the video game Fortnite Battle Royale, a free-to-play battle royale game where up to 100 players fight in increasingly-smaller spaces to be the last person standing, has been cited in more than 200 divorce petitions filed through the site since January.

    Spouses are not the only ones complaining about the viral video game. It has caused problems for schools and even professional sports teams. In July, the free-to-access game passed the billion-dollar threshold through in-app sales alone, and NBA player Andre Drummond released a statement in April that he was hooked. So much so, that he said, “It took my life over.”

    If that does not sound crazy, Ohio’s Ashland University announced earlier this year that it would be the first college in the US to offer scholarships specifically for the video game.

    A spokesperson for the company said, “addiction to drugs, alcohol and gambling have often been cited as reasons for relationship breakdowns, but the dawn of the digital revolution has introduced new addictions.”

    “These now include online pornography, online gaming and social media, so it is no surprise to us that more and more people are having relationship problems because of our digital addictions. These numbers equate to roughly 5% of the 4,665 petitions we have handled since the beginning of the year and as one of the largest filers of divorce petitions in the UK, is a pretty good indicator.”

    The World Health Organization (WHO) recently released a report warning that compulsively playing video games now qualifies as a new mental health condition. In June, the agency said that classifying “gaming disorder” as a separate condition will “serve a public health purpose for countries to be better prepared to identify this issue.”

    Earlier this summer, a nine-year-old girl in the UK was sent to rehabilitation after becoming addicted to Fortnite to the extent that she was sitting on a urine-soaked chair as she would not refuse to leave her monitor.

    Dr. Shekhar Saxena, director of WHO’s department for mental health, estimated the condition affects 23% of gamers. The mental health disorder characterized by behaviors such as losing control of the time, prioritizing gaming above other activities which negatively impacts on areas in a player’s life such as education, employment, and of course, relationships.

    Meanwhile, the Fortnite addiction is real: 

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    When you put your Fortnite addiction over a potential fire

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    Colts pulled off a Fortnite celebration 

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    ABC Australia: Millions are playing it, but is Fortnite addiction really a thing?

    For many, playing video games seems like a harmless pastime even as it consumes them alive and becomes an addiction with very real offline consequences.

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Today’s News 17th September 2018

  • Watch: 100s Of Illegal Migrants Crossing Balkan Mountain Passes

    Hundreds of migrants are trying to cross the Croatian border from Una-Sana Canton every day…

    GEFIRA points out that, according to the estimates, there are between 3,000 and 3,500 migrants in Bihac, and new groups from many countries of Asia and Africa arrive daily.

    Many of them try to cross the well-guarded border of the Republic of Croatia and continue their journey towards the countries of Western Europe,  through the mountain of Plješevica.

    Members of the Mountain Rescue Service Bihac registered columns of migrants in an attempt to illegally cross the state border near Bihac. 

    Source: krajina

  • Here's How Turkey Stalled The Syrian-Russian Offensive On Idlib

    Authored by Elijah Magnier, Middle East based chief international war correspondent for Al Rai Media

    Turkey is pushing further reinforcements of troops, commando units and tanks into the northern Syrian city of Idlib and around it, for a specific objective: to disrupt the attack against the city by the Syrian forces and their allies supported by Russia.

    Ankara is indeed taking advantage of the Russian slowing down of its strategy to liberate the city from jihadists (including al-Qaeda) due to the US threat to bomb the Syrian Army and government forces under that excuse of “using chemical weapons”. This “chemical weapon” has become part of the battle of Idlib, used as a tool to wage war on Syria just as the war is coming to an end.

    Russia considers the Turkish reinforcements as a breach of the Astana Turkish-Russian-Iranian deal, which limited the number of observation points and the military presence around the city and rural areas of Idlib. Moreover, Russia effectively considers Turkey to be unable to fulfil its commitment to totally end the presence of jihadists, especially including the group of al-Qaeda, stationed in the city and around it.

    In fact, the Turkish president Erdogan has asked for an extended delay to meet the Russian and the Iranian demands related to Idlib. This delay has been rejected by the government of Damascus whose leaders believe it is counterproductive to the interests of the country (to liberate the whole of Syria) and, further, would confirm Russian President Putin’s hesitancy which is apparently due to the US threat.

    Decision makers in Damascus said the following:

    Turkey has offered Russia the protection of its military base in Hmaymeem by preventing any further drone attack against it. The Russian base has been subject to over 55 armed drone attacks, all shot down by the Russian defence system around the base which is on the Syrian coast. Actually, Russia itself is prepared to attack rural Latakia in order to create a safety zone for its base and remove the presence of the jihadists who have claimed responsibility for most of the attacks. 

    Russia has rejected the Turkish offer, asking Ankara to abide by its agreement and eliminate the Jihadists from the city using Turkish influence to avoid the attack. Damascus believes Turkey would like to annex Idlib and is, therefore, rejecting any deal with Turkey beyond the one already signed in Astana which consisted of a commitment to finish off all jihadists.

    Furthermore, according to the sources, Turkey “promised to include Jabhat al-Nusra, aka Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, within one single army in Idlib to satisfy the Russian demands and show its control over the jihadists. Ankara’s troops are bringing in more military personnel – as Turkey presents it – to support all Turkish proxies in their battle against jihadists who refuse to surrender or merge with the other groups.

    According to recent information provided by Turkish intelligence to Russia and Iran, the Turkish army is prepared to attack any group refusing to submit to Turkey. Moreover, it seems that hundreds of jihadists have left Syria for another destination. Ankara is facilitating the exit- or else- of all jihadists: otherwise, these will have to fight and die in Idlib,” the sources explained. 

    Turkey is asking for more time, to delay the attack against Idlib for few more weeks. In the meantime, Syria’s allies are determined to control the rural area around Idlib, including rural Hama and Latakia. For this purpose, and for fear of a possible attack on Aleppo by jihadists as a way to divert the Syrian forces attack, the allies are sending large numbers of troops digging in for defensive purposes around Aleppo.

    Presidents Putin and Erdogan will meet Monday to discuss the tense Idlib standoff.

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    Syria’s allies and Damascus itself consider Russia to have slowed down the pace of its attack, thus allowing Turkey to raise concerns worldwide about the necessity of the attack on Idlib. Turkey encouraged the US to take its time to prepare its bank of objectives (targets) in Syria in the case it decides to bomb Syria.

    Also, it has pressed the international community, mainly the Europeans, to intervene to prevent a possible “flood of refugees and jihadists towards the continent of Europe in the case of an attack on Idlib”.

    And this week, the two superpowers (Russia and the US) have conducted military maneuvers in the Mediterranean facing the Syrian coast and in Syria (Tanf). So they are indeed “walking on the edge of an abyss” while flexing their muscles to each other.

    According to my sources, Turkey “is asking for more time to solve the situation in Idlib without a fight. Also, it is proposing to solve the issue of tens of thousands of its armed Syrian proxy militants when the political reconciliation has matured. All these indicate strongly that Turkey is not willing to leave Syria”.

    Moscow has substantial strategic interests engaged with Ankara (commercial exchange, armaments, plus facilitating and selling energy) as well as with Tehran (commerce and energy exchange- one consequence of the Turkish rejection of the US unilateral sanctions on Iran). President Erdogan is playing on this strategic relationship to stop the battle of Idlib.

    Nevertheless, both Russia and Iran themselves sustain a more profound strategic relationship with Syria, where the desire to put an end to the war and see all of Syria liberated is much stronger.

    “There is no plan to attack the city of Idlib for now”, say the sources. The liberation of rural Hama, Latakia and Idlib are the main objectives. The almost two million Syrian civilians are not expected to exit to Turkey or Europe. They are invited to leave all areas which are under the control of the jihadists (mainly al-Qaeda and its partners or its armed supporters) and move into the city of Idlib under Turkish control.

    What is clear so far is the certainty that President Assad is not ready to give up Idlib to President Erdogan. Assad is said to be ready to start the attack in a few weeks even alone, at the cost of dragging everybody behind him onto the battlefield.

  • Three New Deals: Why The Nazis And Fascists Loved FDR

    Authored by David Gordon via The Mises Institute,

    [Three New Deals: Reflections on Roosevelt’s America, Mussolini’s Italy, and Hitler’s Germany, 1933-1939. By Wolfgang Schivelbusch. Metropolitan Books, 2006. 242 pgs.]

    Critics of Roosevelt’s New Deal often liken it to fascism. Roosevelt’s numerous defenders dismiss this charge as reactionary propaganda; but as Wolfgang Schivelbusch makes clear, it is perfectly true. Moreover, it was recognized to be true during the 1930s, by the New Deal’s supporters as well as its opponents.

    When Roosevelt took office in March 1933, he received from Congress an extraordinary delegation of powers to cope with the Depression.

    The broad-ranging powers granted to Roosevelt by Congress, before that body went into recess, were unprecedented in times of peace. Through this “delegation of powers,” Congress had, in effect, temporarily done away with itself as the legislative branch of government. The only remaining check on the executive was the Supreme Court. In Germany, a similar process allowed Hitler to assume legislative power after the Reichstag burned down in a suspected case of arson on February 28, 1933. (p. 18).

    The Nazi press enthusiastically hailed the early New Deal measures: America, like the Reich, had decisively broken with the “uninhibited frenzy of market speculation.” The Nazi Party newspaper, the Völkischer Beobachter, “stressed ‘Roosevelt’s adoption of National Socialist strains of thought in his economic and social policies,’ praising the president’s style of leadership as being compatible with Hitler’s own dictatorial Führerprinzip” (p. 190).

    Nor was Hitler himself lacking in praise for his American counterpart. He “told American ambassador William Dodd that he was ‘in accord with the President in the view that the virtue of duty, readiness for sacrifice, and discipline should dominate the entire people. These moral demands which the President places before every individual citizen of the United States are also the quintessence of the German state philosophy, which finds its expression in the slogan “The Public Weal Transcends the Interest of the Individual”‘” (pp. 19-20). A New Order in both countries had replaced an antiquated emphasis on rights.

    Mussolini, who did not allow his work as dictator to interrupt his prolific journalism, wrote a glowing review of Roosevelt’s Looking Forward. He found “reminiscent of fascism … the principle that the state no longer leaves the economy to its own devices”; and, in another review, this time of Henry Wallace’s New Frontiers, Il Duce found the Secretary of Agriculture’s program similar to his own corporativism (pp. 23-24).

    Roosevelt never had much use for Hitler, but Mussolini was another matter. “‘I don’t mind telling you in confidence,’ FDR remarked to a White House correspondent, ‘that I am keeping in fairly close touch with that admirable Italian gentleman'” (p. 31). Rexford Tugwell, a leading adviser to the president, had difficulty containing his enthusiasm for Mussolini’s program to modernize Italy: “It’s the cleanest … most efficiently operating piece of social machinery I’ve ever seen. It makes me envious” (p. 32, quoting Tugwell).

    Why did these contemporaries see an affinity between Roosevelt and the two leading European dictators, while most people today view them as polar opposites? People read history backwards: they project the fierce antagonisms of World War II, when America battled the Axis, to an earlier period. At the time, what impressed many observers, including as we have seen the principal actors themselves, was a new style of leadership common to America, Germany, and Italy.

    Once more we must avoid a common misconception. Because of the ruthless crimes of Hitler and his Italian ally, it is mistakenly assumed that the dictators were for the most part hated and feared by the people they ruled. Quite the contrary, they were in those pre-war years the objects of considerable adulation. A leader who embodied the spirit of the people had superseded the old bureaucratic apparatus of government.

    While Hitler’s and Roosevelt’s nearly simultaneous ascension to power highlighted fundamental differences … contemporary observers noted that they shared an extraordinary ability to touch the soul of the people. Their speeches were personal, almost intimate. Both in their own way gave their audiences the impression that they were addressing not the crowd, but each listener as an individual. (p. 54)

    But does not Schivelbusch’s thesis fall before an obvious objection? No doubt Roosevelt, Hitler, and Mussolini were charismatic leaders; and all of them rejected laissez-faire in favor of the new gospel of a state-managed economy. But Roosevelt preserved civil liberties, while the dictators did not.

    Schivelbusch does not deny the manifest differences between Roosevelt and the other leaders; but even if the New Deal was a “soft fascism”, the elements of compulsion were not lacking. The “Blue Eagle” campaign of the National Recovery Administration serves as his principal example. Businessmen who complied with the standards of the NRA received a poster that they could display prominently in their businesses. Though compliance was supposed to be voluntary, the head of the program, General Hugh Johnson, did not shrink from appealing to illegal mass boycotts to ensure the desired results.

    “The public,” he [Johnson] added, “simply cannot tolerate non-compliance with their plan.” In a fine example of doublespeak, the argument maintained that cooperation with the president was completely voluntary but that exceptions would not be tolerated because the will of the people was behind FDR. As one historian [Andrew Wolvin] put it, the Blue Eagle campaign was “based on voluntary cooperation, but those who did not comply were to be forced into participation.” (p. 92)

    Schivelbusch compares this use of mass psychology to the heavy psychological pressure used in Germany to force contributions to the Winter Relief Fund.

    Both the New Deal and European fascism were marked by what Wilhelm Röpke aptly termed the “cult of the colossal.” The Tennessee Valley Authority was far more than a measure to bring electrical power to rural areas. It symbolized the power of government planning and the war on private business:

    The TVA was the concrete-and-steel realization of the regulatory authority at the heart of the New Deal. In this sense, the massive dams in the Tennessee Valley were monuments to the New Deal, just as the New Cities in the Pontine Marshes were monuments to Fascism … But beyond that, TVA propaganda was also directed against an internal enemy: the capitalist excesses that had led to the Depression… (pp. 160, 162)

    This outstanding study is all the more remarkable in that Schivelbusch displays little acquaintance with economics. Mises and Hayek are absent from his pages, and he grasps the significance of architecture much more than the errors of Keynes. Nevertheless, he has an instinct for the essential. He concludes the book by recalling John T. Flynn’s great book of 1944, As We Go Marching.

    Flynn, comparing the New Deal with fascism, foresaw a problem that still faces us today.

    But willingly or unwillingly, Flynn argued, the New Deal had put itself into the position of needing a state of permanent crisis or, indeed, permanent war to justify its social interventions.

    “It is born in crisis, lives on crises, and cannot survive the era of crisis…. Hitler’s story is the same.” … Flynn’s prognosis for the regime of his enemy Roosevelt sounds more apt today than when he made it in 1944…

    “We must have enemies,” he wrote in As We Go Marching. “They will become an economic necessity for us.” (pp. 186, 191)

  • The World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund Unveils A New "Big Short"

    It was another tough month for Horseman Global, which we previously dubbed “the world’s most bearish hedge fund”, due to its exposure which, while fluctuating, has been net short for the past 6 years and most recently had a net short position of -43.5%.

    In August, the fund dropped another 5%, bringing its total return for 2018 to -10.40%, setting up for another painful year for Horseman LPs who have underperformed the market since 2015.

    The fund’s underperformance was not lost on CIO Russell Clark, who writes that while he likes “big ideas, and I like trying to do something different. When it works, its great. But when it doesn’t, it’s average” admits that “lately, performance has been very average.” He attributed the reason for that to “US assets and the dollar which are drastically outperforming all other markets”, something we have discussed extensively in prior posts.

    Clark’s lament is the same as that from Goldman Sachs, namely that running a large fiscal deficit with record low unemployment “makes little sense” – Goldman went so far as describing this state of affairs as only observed during war time –  and with US oil production beginning to slow, he warns that “something is likely to break.

    Being bearish on the US dollar and US assets has hurt. I had a very similar problem, and similar lackluster performance from 2009 to 2011, when I thought Chinese monetary and fiscal policy was similarly deluded

    Still Clark, and Horseman, continue undeterred, and as he writes in his latest letter to investors (who appear to be shrinking, with AUM under Horseman Global now down to $488MM), he has seen “lots of good short themes in the markets over the last year including Western corporates suffering from Chinese competition, higher commodity price and bond yield impacting the corporate bond market, an investment grade borrower getting downgraded and dislocating the high yield market, the collapse in crypto currencies and their negative impact on the semiconductor market and finally the destruction of the short volatility trade.”

    Yet none of these were enough to get Clark truly excited, because as he further explains “all of these are ideas that hold water from a macro perspective, but they lacked one important factor: An industry that investors so believed in, they would continue to hold even as the sector began to break down.”

    Now, with just 2 weeks left in the third quarter and with Horseman increasingly desperate for a Hail Mary trade, Clark writes that “finally, this month we think we found” what may be the next big short trade.

    Here is his explanation of why the semiconductor space may be due to for a big drop in the coming months:

    We had been looking at the semiconductor market for a while, but mainly looking at cutting edge semiconductor makers, and their exposure to cryptocurrency mining. However, one of our shorts, Applied Materials, stated in a conference call that the majority of its orderbook is for lagging technology, not leading as had been expected.

    What is lagging semiconductor technology? To simplify massively, it tends to be sensors. Sensors take real world data and convert it to electronic data. When we looked closer, we found that investors had become enamored with this area for two reasons. One; the “internet of things” had convinced investors that demand would remain strong for the foreseeable future, and two; “the breakdown of Moore’s Law” had meant that supply was constrained.

    We found that the number of lagging semiconductor fabs were forecast to increase after declining for years.

    Finally, we had found the sector that investors believe in, even as fundamentals declined. We also know that the Chinese are entering this sector. All we needed was a market signal. And right on cue, a Japanese sensor producer, Renesas, warned on Q2 profits and then followed this up with a cash bid for US producer Integrated Device Technology at seven times sales! That’s what I call ringing the bell.

    As we continued to look at the sensor industry, we began to see that the sector was seeing a slowdown in orders from the auto sector and particularly in China after a long period of growth. The auto sector is a big buyer of sensors. Higher commodity prices are starting to affect the profitability of auto firms globally, which have large amounts of debt. Ford has been downgraded to one notch above high yield and looks likely to become a fallen angel. General Motors could well follow.

    With that in mind, here is Horseman’s latest portfolio allocation:

    The short book is made up of sensor related stocks, autos and banks that will be affected by deterioration in the corporate debt market. The long book has seen us reduce or exit miners that produce commodities tied to the auto industry, such as copper, nickel and zinc. While the Chinese auto market is slowing, the effect on profitability is likely to impact foreign producers who dominate this market.

    And visually:

    His parting thoughts underscore why Clark remains (painfully) bearish:

    2011 and 2018 are playing out very similarly for me. Easy momentum trades of the past year are breaking down, and investors are herded from one area to another. While all the talk is of an emerging market crisis, the biggest emerging markets are all engaging in reform, while the developed markets are still overly reliant on easy money. In 2011, selling the then outperforming emerging markets, and buying Irish debt was the right trade. And in 2018, shorting developed markets and buying emerging markets looks the right trade now.

  • The Backlash Begins: Critics Question Motives Behind Bezos' New $2 Billion Charity

    Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is the world’s wealthiest man. He was also – until very recently – widely considered the least generous billionaire. To wit, the Bezos Family Fund – the only major philanthropic endeavor bearing his name – was established with money earned by his parents, who were early private investors in Amazon.

    But for whatever reason (maybe it was the intensifying political pressure from Bernie Sanders’ “Stop BEZOS” act, or positive PR ahead of Amazon’s much-hyped HQ2 announcement, or even the fact that Amazon Web Services is jockying for an immensely valuable DoD contract), Bezos decided that he wanted to improve his public image.

    So earlier this week, he took his first tentative step toward establishing a reputation for philanthropy by unveiling the “Bezos Day One Fund.” The fund, according to an announcement tweeted by Bezos, will help finance organizations dedicated to helping the homeless (several months after Amazon killed a Seattle employment tax to fund resources for that city’s burgeoning homeless community) and establishing a network of preschools that will serve children from low-income families.

    Bezos

    But unfortunately for Bezos and his PR team, the unveiling of the “Day One Fund” elicited more questions than answers. After pointing out that Bezos has historically been one of the most parsimonious members of the uber-rich, one expert quoted by CNBC wondered: “Why now?”

    Brad Fulton, who teaches nonprofit management at the University of Indiana, suspects the focus on homeless families “probably has something to do” with the payroll tax bill Amazon opposed in Seattle. And while Bezos has been working on this fund for over a year, the timing of the announcement certainly comes at an interesting time, he said.

    “It’s unclear why he made the announcement now, except that it comes on the heels of Sanders’ critiques, and Bezos apparently no longer liked being known as the least generous billionaire,” he said.

    The BBC took it one step further by pointing out the irony in Bezos establishing a fund to help the homeless while some workers at Amazon’s fulfillment centers reportedly live in tents.

    But far from being universally applauded, the Amazon founder’s pledge was met with fierce criticism.

    James Bloodworth, a writer who went undercover to expose working conditions at the company’s fulfilment centres, said there was “something slightly ironic” about Mr Bezos’s plan.

    “There have been credible reports of Amazon warehouse workers sleeping outside in tents because they can’t afford to rent homes on the wages paid to them by the company,” he told the BBC.

    “Jeff Bezos can tout himself as a great philanthropist, yet it will not absolve him of responsibility if Amazon workers continue to be afraid to take toilet breaks and days off sick because they fear disciplinary action at work.”

    Another critic argued that Bezos’ donation did little to tackle the “deep and complex root causes” of homelessness.

    But according to Anand Giridharadas, Mr Carnegie’s approach helped give rise to mass inequality.

    Mr Giridharadas, whose book Winners Take All tackles the so-called “charade” of modern philanthropy, characterises Carnegie’s approach as “extreme taking followed by extreme giving”.

    The super rich, he argues, stop short of “transforming the system atop which they stand”.

    While Mr Bezos’s donation is admirable, he says, it does not tackle the “deep and complex root causes” of homelessness and poverty in the US – which include Amazon itself, as the firm has been a beneficiary of the new world of precarious employment.

    Meanwhile, CNBC pointed out that Bezos’ announcement left many unanswered questions, including what would be the structure of the fund, why he only committed $2 billion of his massive $160 billion fortune and – of course – “why now?”

    Here’s a summary of the most glaring unanswered questions, courtesy of CNBC:

    * * *

    What’s the structure?

    One of the biggest questions is how Bezos plans to structure the fund. Depending on how it’s structured, it will be held to different types of regulatory and transparency standards. For example, if it’s a private foundation, Bezos will be required to spend 5 percent of the fund’s value every year, while an LLC structure will give him more flexibility.

    Once the structure is determined, Bezos will have to hire a leadership team to run the initiative and put in proper oversight measures, like more details about the grant making process, which will all help add transparency to his fund, Camarena said.

    “No foundation or billionaire can solve the world’s most pressing problems alone,” Camarena said. “The more you’re open, the more you’re trusted.”

    Why did Bezo only give $2 billion?

    Without knowing the exact structure of the fund, it’s unclear where the $2 billion will come from. If it comes straight out of Bezos’s own pocket, which many assume it will, he will be eligible for steep tax deductions. Thirty percent of the gift will be deductible if he sets up a private foundation; 50 percent if it’s a donor-advised fund.

    The bigger question is the size of the fund, which is smaller compared to what other high net worth individuals in the tech industry, like Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates, have pledged to give back. Bezos hasn’t joined the Giving Pledge either, a popular campaign that has some of the world’s richest individuals commit to giving away the majority of their wealth.

    Bezos, however, hinted in an interview Thursday that he could potentially add more to the $2 billion commitment as the initiative grows. Leslie Lenkowsky, a philanthropic studies professor at the University of Indiana, said Bezos’s idea of starting small before expanding, commonly known as an “acorns to oaks” approach, is not uncommon among wealthy individuals.

    “There’s a good argument to start with a relatively smaller amount, and then when you see it’s successful, expand it,” Lenkowsky said.

    Over what period of time will the money be disbursed?

    In theory, most philanthropic vehicles can run in perpetuity. Bezos hasn’t disclosed how long his fund will run or the timeline for distributing the $2 billion. If it’s set up as a private foundation, it must expend at least 5 percent of net assets value annually, but other forms, like an LLC or donor-advised funds, don’t have a required payout.

    One way to ensure the fund is used more effectively, in a shorter period of time, is to follow a “sunset model,” in which a spending deadline is put in place, typically over a 10 to 20 year period, according to Brent Copen, who teaches financial management of nonprofit organizations at Berkeley.

    “While you want to put money to work, you also want to do it in a way that’s thoughtful and responsible,” he said.

    Why focus on the homeless and preschools?

    Camarena at the Foundation Center said that it would be interesting to know how Bezos ended up choosing homelessness and early childhood education as the fund’s priorities. While Bezos has actively supported early childhood education programs, he is less known for having an interest in solving homelessness issues.

    Bezos said during an interview at an event in Washington, D.C. Thursday that he’s received over 47,000 ideas over the past year, and that he’s interested in “helping the world in many different ways.” For the preschool initiative, he said he’ll be actively involved, “operating” those schools.

    One very important difference in Bezos’s approach is how he’s focused on more near-term issues, as opposed to other super rich people who tend to support more ambitious projects, like curing cancer, said Lenkowsky.

    “It’s a much more realistic approach,” Lenkowsky said. “He is doing philanthropy in a way that we have not seen people of his wealth do it in a long time.”

    And – last but not least – why now?

    Plans for the new fund come at a time when politicians like Senator Bernie Sanders are stepping up their criticism of Bezos for worsening income inequality. Amazon, meanwhile, was one of the most vocal opponents of a new payroll tax proposal in Seattle that would have helped build affordable housing.

    Brad Fulton, who teaches nonprofit management at the University of Indiana, suspects the focus on homeless families “probably has something to do” with the payroll tax bill Amazon opposed in Seattle. And while Bezos has been working on this fund for over a year, the timing of the announcement certainly comes at an interesting time, he said.

    “It’s unclear why he made the announcement now, except that it comes on the heels of Sanders’ critiques, and Bezos apparently no longer liked being known as the least generous billionaire,” he said.

    * * *

    With questions about Amazon’s mistreatment of workers at its distribution centers, subsidiaries and even its subcontractors once again working their way into the headlines, we imagine Bezos and his team will swiftly furnish answers to the most pressing questions, because it would be such a shame to waste $2 billion and accomplish little in the way of rehabilitation.

  • CNN Ratings Collapse, Losing To Nickelodeon And Fox News 

    Trump’s “fake news” nemesis, CNN, experienced a dramatic collapse in ratings last week compared to 2017.According to AdWeek, CNN viewership tumbled 41% in daytime TV ratings and tumbled 36% in primetime versus the same week last year.

    “CNN ranked No. 6 across basic cable in total primetime viewers, and No. 5 in total day this past week. Despite the top 10 finishes, the network was -36 percent in primetime viewers, and -41 percent in total day viewers vs. the same week last year”, AdWeek wrote.

    The increasingly more partisan news network was once again beat by its traditional competitors: Fox News was No. 1 across the board for basic cable for the Labor Day week of Sept. 03, 2018 (No. 1 in total viewers across the 24-hour day for 35 consecutive weeks), while MSNBC came in second.

    In basic cable, CNN placed fifth with ESPN and Nickelodeon placing No. 3 and No. 4, respectively as Sponge Bob suddenly emerges to be more popular/credible than Jake Tepper and Chris Cuomo.

    In primetime, CNN ranked No 6. while ESPN secured the first ranking. Fox News, MSNBC, HGTV, and the USA network all placed higher than CNN for primetime views. 

    The network has repeatedly seen embarrassing viewership losses compared to 2017. In August, the network lost 12 percent of its primetime viewers compared to 2017. During one week in August, the network dropped 23 percent during the day and 24 percent in primetime compared to the same week last year, said Breitbart News.

    CNN’s sharp fall might be the result of President Trump’s relentless hostility towards the network in the last several years. 

    Of course, it may also simply be the result of increasingly more viewers switching over to other, less biased sources of news and information. 

  • "The Big Short's" Steve Eisman Reveals Where The Next Crisis Will Come From (And His Favorite Long Idea)

    Overnight, we presented the views of 4 people who saw the last financial crisis coming, and shared their outlook for the future. There was one name we forgot, however, perhaps the most famous of all: Steve Eisman, who was popularized by the movie The Big Short, and who not only “saw it coming”, but made a lot of money in the process.

    Now a fund manager at Neuberger Berman in New York, Eisman spoke to the Financial Post’s Barbara Shecter about the crisis, its aftermath, and how he’s investing now. Below we present the key highlights, including not only his takes on former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, but also the Fed’s response to the financial crisis, how markets responded to the crisis, his views on US, Canadian and European banks, the risks to the US economy, where the next crisis will come from, and what his favorite long idea is currently.

    As published originally in the Financial Post

    Steve Eisman, Hector Retamal / AFP / Getty Images

    Q: This Saturday (Sept. 15) marks 10 years since the collapse of Lehman Bros. What has been the most significant change you’ve seen in global markets since then?

    A: I think the biggest change, at least in the United States, is how much more extensively and harshly banks are regulated. Let’s use Citigroup as an example. So just before the financial crisis started, Citigroup was levered about 33 to 1. Today, it is levered about 10 to 1. That is, in my world, like comparing the distance from Mercury to Pluto. It’s such an enormous change it’s hard to even describe it. I can honestly say for the first time in all the many, many years that I have covered the financial services sector, I actually think the banking system in the United States is safe.

    Q: What about Canada?

    A: One of the potential issues with the Canadian banks is that the risk weights that are given to mortgages are exceptionally low and that’s because there have been no losses in Canada for 25, 30 years. So for example, if you look at the larger Canadian banks, you’ll see that they assume the risk rates are in the single digits — and to get to that number they assume 85 per cent of the mortgages that they have that are not government-guaranteed will produce losses of 20 basis points or less per year.

    Q: That’s low?

    A: Yeah I would say so but, hey, it’s Canada.

    Q: And Europe?

    A: Look, I’m very critical of U.S. regulators before the crisis — I think they were horrendous, just horrendous. But post-crisis I think they’ve done a good job. And they basically did two things: they made the banks write down their losses as quickly as possible, and they made them raise a lot of capital. And the combination basically allowed the financial system to heal relatively quickly. In Europe, they took a bit of a different attitude. I think they felt that if the banks wrote down assets too quickly it would sink the economies, and so they were much more permissive. In Italy, we’re still dealing with the same non-performing loans they had 10 years ago. And the second thing is that while they certainly made banks raise capital so that their leverage ratios are better than they were, they’re still 1.5 to two times more than the United States, the absolute leverage.

    Q:  How do you think history will judge the Fed’s response to the crisis?

    A: If I had to give it a grade, I’d say pre-crisis I’d give the Fed an F. And I would say that Alan Greenspan will go down in history as the worst Chairman of the Federal Reserve in the history of the United States. I’d say, during the crisis (Ben) Bernanke did a very good job, I’d give him a B or B+, and that’s what I think about how they did.

    Q: And post-crisis?

    A: I think they did a very good job regulating the banks under the leadership of Daniel Tarullo.

    Q: What’s surprised you as an investor over the past decade?

    A: I think what surprised me most about the markets was how quickly they recovered and how quickly people forgot what happened.

    Q: Why do you think that happened?

    A: I think that’s a function of the fact that the Fed embarked on this great quantitative easing experiment. There were three Q/Es: QE1 took place in the spring of 2009 when markets were just dead. This was very successful and so the fixed income markets went back to normal. And then two years later, the Fed decided that, hey, interest rates are zero, the economy is really not growing, we’re worried we going to go back into a recession. So they went out and bought U.S. government bonds and mortgage bonds backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the idea was they were therefore removing trillions of dollars worth of risk-free assets from the marketplace with the idea that that would force both investors and companies to go out on the risk curve. The idea was that that would somehow get companies, for example, to build factories and hire people and that would get the economy growing faster.

    Q: And that wasn’t as successful?

    A: In my view it failed, 100 per cent. It caused the stock market to go up because people took all that liquidity and invested it in the stock market, but it did not cause the economy to grow even 10 basis points faster. I like to nickname quantitative easing “monetary policy for rich people.” You could quote me on that. You know, they took a shot; it didn’t work. And then they doubled down and did it again. Same result.

    Q:  From a global perspective, what is the biggest risk today that people aren’t talking about?

    A: I’m pretty sanguine these days about the U.S. economy. I don’t see any real risks out there.  A lot of the things I usually look at that would tell you there might be a problem — like changes in credit quality — are not showing any signs of stress. And I think the only real threat is some sort of global trade war.

    Q: Is the current growth of the U.S. economy sustainable?

    A: I don’t know. All I can say is that given the data I look at I don’t see any slowdown until 2020. It’s just not in the data. Again, barring a trade war it could stay more or less like it is — three per cent, high twos growth rate, which is pretty powerful for us.

    Q:  Where will the next crisis come from?

    A: I think it’ll come in the corporate sector because I think that’s where a lot of the debt’s been issued. It’s not going to come from the consumer sector. But you need a real slowdown in the economy for that to happen.

    Q: When you look back at the crisis of 2008, do you think of it as “lesson learned”?

    A: Well, lesson learned in the sense that the banking system is much less levered than it was. But other people are more levered, so we’ll see how they do next time around. But whatever happens, it’s not going to be a systemic issue. Let’s make a hypothetical: say there’s a recession and let’s say there’s a lot of these high-yield companies go bankrupt. That’s not a systemic problem, that’s a problem for the people who own those bonds. If you ask yourself what made that crisis different, there were four elements to it. There was too much leverage, a big asset class (residential real estate) blew up in everybody’s face, important firms owned that asset class, and number four was derivatives, like credit default swaps, that tied balance sheets of all the institutions together. So this one bank went down, another bank would go down. Today, they’re less levered — maybe some of them will own some of an asset class that blows up but since they’re less levered it’s not going to destroy them.

    Q: Has your approach to investing changed? I think you were quoted a few years ago saying that judging stocks on the fundamentals was not a good business anymore.

    A: Back then, I was running a hedge fund that just invested long/short in financials. And what I was really trying to say was that in a world where rates are zero, and credit quality is pristine, investing in financial stocks to try and generate alpha out of them had become unbelievable difficult. So it’s, like, you took my game away from me! It was impossible to differentiate for a long time. I still do long/short but I do all sectors.

    Q: We’ve been talking about big shorts for 10 years now. What is your favourite long idea?

    A: I think there are certain companies in the U.S. that are kind of oligopolistic, that are big data stories, where they control the data that they sell, and there’s very little competition. There are three companies like that in my portfolio. Equifax is an example, but there are a few others that have massive databases and because it’s so expensive to recreate what they have, there can only be a few companies that do it. Google controls a lot of data but it’s a different kind of data. It’s not the same thing. The best predictor of consumer action is the databases that the consumer credit bureaus have of their credit behaviour. It’s every loan you have, and whether you’ve paid monthly on everything that you’ve ever had. It’s the best database I know of.

  • Robinhood Investing App Secretly Makes Millions Selling Millennials' User Data To HFT Firms

    Stealing from millennials to give to the rich. Robinhood App sells user customer data to make a quick buck from the high-frequency trading (HFT) firms on Wall Street. 

    Robinhood Financial, LLC, a US-based mobile stock brokerage company, founded on the basis of disrupting the brokage industry by offering commission-free trading, has been secretly making millions of dollars in a profit scheme by selling users’ data to HFT traders, said Logan Kane, a writer for North of Sunset Publishing.

    Kane said the latest Second Quarter Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) filing shows that Robinhood Financial takes from the millennial and gives to the HFT firms.

    “Robinhood accept payment for order flow, but on a back-of-the-envelope calculation, they appear to be selling their customers’ orders for over ten times as much as other brokers who engage in the practice. It’s a conflict of interest and is bad for you as a customer.

    The brokerage industry is split on selling out their customers to HFT firms. Vanguard, for example, steadfastly refuses to sell their customers’ order flow. Interactive Brokers, which is the preferred broker for sophisticated retail traders, doesn’t sell order flow and allows customers to route orders to any exchange they choose.

    Robinhood not only engages in selling customer orders but seems to be making far more than their competitors from it. Among brokers that receive payment for order flow, it’s typically a small percentage of their revenue but a big chunk of change nonetheless,” Kane said.

    This represents, a severe breach of confidentiality for its over four million active users, and a remarkable act of deception from the Silicon Valley firm that promotes ethical trading practices to benefit the everyday American, but as we discovered via Kane’s reporting — the company is handsomely profiting from the average person by selling users’ order flow.

    Robinhood’s website presents millennials with feel-good statements and hypocritical statements like:

    • “Invest for free: We believe that the financial system should work for the rest of us, not just the wealthy. We’ve cut the fat that makes other brokerages costly, like manual account management and hundreds of storefront locations, so we can offer zero commission trading.”

    • “Trusted by Millions in the USA: We’re serious about security and use cutting-edge technology to ensure your personal information is fully encrypted and securely stored.”

    • “Introducing Free Options: Trading Find out how to trade options the Robinhood way. It’s quick, straightforward & free.”

    Kane explains that brokerage firms that sell order flow must disclose these transactions to the SEC.

    He said: “there is a material difference in the disclosures between what Robinhood and other discount brokers are showing that suggests that something is going on behind the scenes that we don’t understand at Robinhood.”

    From Robinhood’s latest SEC rule 206 disclosure:

    Compare this with E*TRADE. They have AUM of $392.8 billion and generate roughly $47 million per quarter selling order flow to HFT (from the latest E*TRADE rule 606 disclosure).

    TD Ameritrade has AUM of roughly $1.2 trillion and made $119 million last quarter selling order flow (From TD Ameritrade’s rule 606 disclosure).

    “Look closely here – if you don’t, you’ll miss it,” said Kane. 

    TD Ameritrade and E*TRADE both report their payments for order flow as a tenth of a penny per share. Now glance at Robinhood’s SEC filing. They report their figure as “per dollar of executed trade value.” According to Kane, this means the numbers in Robinhood’s filings appear smaller if they are not cross-referenced by competitors, but it is actually much larger.

    “Let’s do some quick math. Assume the average stock traded has a share price of $50. It takes 20,000 shares traded at $50 for $1,000,000 in volume, for which E*TRADE makes $22 per $1,000,000 traded, which sounds like a small number until you realize they cleared $47,000,000 last quarter from this. But off an identical $1,000,000 in volume, Robinhood gets paid $260 from the same HFT firms. If Robinhood did as much trade volume as E*TRADE, they would theoretically be making close to $500 million per quarter in payments from HFT firms,” Kane said.

    Kane asks the question: Why are high-frequency trading firms willing to pay over 10 times as much for Robinhood orders than they are for orders from other brokerages? He notes that the co-founders of Robinhood have had a history of building software for hedge funds and high-frequency traders.

    Kane then asks another difficult question: Why wouldn’t they report how much they are getting paid per share like E*TRADE, TD Ameritrade, or Charles Schwab and instead report per dollar of trade value where the number can look smaller when it’s actually ten times as much?

    “I’m not a conspiracy theorist… But Robinhood is not being transparent about how they make their money. Every other discount broker reports their payments from HFT “per share”, but Robinhood reports “per dollar”, and when you do the math, they appear to be receiving far more from HFT firms than other brokerages. This raises questions about the quality of execution that Robinhood provides if their true customers are HFT firms.

    Robinhood isn’t the worst thing to happen to online trading, but they market their service as a free/no-commission product, which has the effect of pushing trade volume through the roof.

    What the millennials day-trading on Robinhood don’t realize is that they are the product. Robinhood is well on their way to making hundreds of millions of dollars in cash income by selling their customers’ orders to the HFT meat grinder. High-frequency traders are not charities.

    The only reason high-frequency traders would pay Robinhood tens to hundreds of millions of dollars is that they can exploit the retail customers for far more than they pay Robinhood,” Kane concluded.

    So, once again, sorry millennials – Wall Street and Silicon Valley win again. The deception of free trading via Robinhood comes at the hidden cost of poor execution and being frontrun by HFTs on every single trade.

  • America's Fake-Money System: Honest Work For Dishonest Pay

    Authored by Economic Prism’s MN Gordon, annotated by Acting-Man’s Pater Tenebrarum,

    Misadventures and Mishaps

    Over the past decade, in the wake of the 2008-09 debt crisis, the impossible has happened.  The sickness of too much debt has been seemingly cured with massive dosages of even more debt.  This, no doubt, is evidence that there are wonders and miracles above and beyond 24-hour home deliveries of Taco Bell via Door Dash.

    The global debtberg: at the end of 2017, it had grown to USD 237 trillion. Obviously this is by now a slightly dated figure, as debt issuance has continued with gay abandon this year. [PT]

    But how can dosages of more debt be the cure for too much debt?  Can more Cutty Sark be the cure for a dipsomaniac?  Certainly, in both instances, and after some interim relief, the cure always proves to be much worse than the disease.

    Without question, a moment of clarity is approaching that will bisect the world of today from the world of tomorrow, like the Patriot Act bisects the present world from its prior state of bliss.  Thus, what follows is a rudimentary preview of what’s in store.  But first, some context is in order…

    The fake money system – a system centered on debt based legal tender and centrally fabricated interest rates – produces booms and busts of greater extremes with each progression of the business cycle.  This century alone we’ve experienced two iterations of these boom and bust scenarios.  First the dotcom bubble and bust.  Then the housing boom and crash.

    The “well-contained” end of the housing boom…  [PT]

    Make no mistake, these booms and busts were anything but garden variety gyrations of the business cycle.  In fact, the Federal Reserve’s finger prints are all over them.  The booms originated from Fed monetary policy misadventures.  The busts were triggered by Fed monetary policy mishaps.

    Anatomy of a Mishap

    Presently, we are closing in on a decade’s long economic boom and bull market in stocks. This boom, like the boom of the mid-2000s, advanced during an extended period of monetary policy misadventures. This was the ZIRP and QE misadventure from 2009 through 2015, which distorted financial markets and disfigured the economy.

    The last several years of this boom and bull market, however, have been a monetary policy transition period. First the Fed tapered back QE. Then the Fed began ever so slightly reducing its balance sheet and raising the federal funds rate.

    Total assets held by the Federal Reserve system and the federal funds rate. It will be interesting to see at what level the next bust will be triggered. In fact, busts have already been triggered elsewhere in the world, as a number of emerging markets have recently gone over the cliff. [PT]

    Obviously, the Fed’s tightening operations over the last several years have been done with kid gloves.  The tightening increments have been subtle. They have also been telegraphed from a mile away.  But that doesn’t mean a monetary policy mishap, and subsequent bust, will somehow be averted.

    The crossover into the monetary policy mishap stage is never apparent until well after the fact.  In truth, the crossover may have already happened… and we just don’t know it.  The mishap will come as a surprise.

    On a glorious day, much like today, when everything appears to be unfolding according to plan, all of the suddenly, out on the margins, an emerging market economy will be stricken by a debt crisis and go kaput.  Moments later, during much confusion and panic, another two or three more emerging markets will also croak.

    Is something sinister lurking in Lehman’s ruins? [PT]

    Then Fed Chair Powell, just as Bernanke did at the onset of the subprime mortgage meltdown, will step forward with calming confidence and declare the sickness to be contained.  But the reassurance will be short lived.  Because the contagion will have already spread to the center of the financial system.

    Then, to Wall Street’s astonishment, a major financial institution will collapse – like Lehman Brothers a decade ago – and the flow of credit will be reduced to that of cold molasses.  After that, things will really get out of hand…

    Honest Work for Dishonest Pay

    The impending crisis, intensified by the dual stressors of currency and trade wars, will bring with it a vast collection of state sponsored solutions to save the world from itself.  Any and all ideas, ranging from the absurd to the ludicrous, will be put to the acid test so long as they meet two very critical criteria. They must preserve the status quo and further concentrate wealth into the hands of the few.

    One trio of bad ideas, which was burped into the atmosphere last weekend by former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard, is for the Fed to combat the next recession by buying stocks, financing the deficit, and directly purchasing goods.  Surely, Blanchard’s a clever fellow.  He’s even a Professor of Economics emeritus at MIT.

    Optimized credit crunch outcome. You need a scientific monetary policy for that… [PT]

    Yet, predictably, Blanchard didn’t mention that the Fed would need to create money from thin air so that it could buy stocks, loan it to the government, and go on its massive spending spree.  Perhaps these massive helicopter money drops would prevent asset prices from deflating.  But they would also destroy any remaining semblance of market-derived pricing and perpetuate an upside-down economy.

    Blanchard also didn’t mention that these actions would transfer the ownership of publicly traded companies, and future tax payer labors, to the Fed.  Conceivably, there are infinitely many places where this could all lead – though we don’t suspect any of them would be very appealing.

    Former IMF chief economist and arch-Keynesian Olivier Blanchard – a well-known fount of truly atrocious voodoo-economics ideas, one nuttier than the next. The books in the background of this picture are probably meant to indicate that he’s been properly indoctrinated (they certainly haven’t made him any smarter). We have yet to come across a headline with his name in it that doesn’t cause us to inwardly cringe. Where do they find these people? Well, this one they found in France, inter alia home to luminaries like Marxist economist Thomas Pikkety, a country in which government spending has reached a staggering 58% of GDP, which has become one of the poster children for economic stagnation. It is hard to believe that economists like Turgot, Bastiat or de Molinari also came from France. What has happened to the French classical liberal tradition? Very little of it, if anything, seems to have survived. If we sound less than respectful it is because we consider people like Blanchard a danger to civilization – as are all central planners and would-be central planners. It is utterly appalling how much outright economic nonsense is paraded as the “solution” to the rolling catastrophe the interventionism of bureaucrats of his ilk has brought about in the first place. [PT]

    One direction Blanchard’s plan would take us is to a place where taxpayers and the company’s they work for would be reduced to milk cows not for the federal government… but for private bankers.  This, in turn, would complete the central banker’s long desired wealth extraction scheme.

    Still, that doesn’t mean things would be all bad. Here at the Economic Prism we are eternal optimists. We see the glass half full. We make lemonade with our lemons. When we spill salt, we throw a pinch over our left shoulder and right into the devil’s eyes.

    Moreover, as a milk cow for private bankers we’re confident we would still find plenty of satisfaction – and have a little fun too – while providing an honest day’s work for a dishonest day’s pay.

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Today’s News 16th September 2018

  • Martin Armstrong Asks: "Will Global Warming Sink the Netherlands?"

    Submitted by Armstrong Economics

    A friend of mine was taking a class in geography in university for the credits. The professor was all about brainwashing the class about Global Warming. The pitch was that with reducing air pollution from cars, it would be possible to save the Netherlands otherwise the seas will rise and the country will vanish from the face of the earth.

    I find it really incredible how these people promote that everything on the planet is somehow our fault. Most of the ancient city of Alexandria, Egypt, from the time of Cleopatra is under water. Sure, that must have been caused by too many chariots in rush hour and the farting of horses like cows that the EU regulates.

    Then there is the discovery of ancient sea fossils in the middle of Australia which shows that obviously, Australia was once under water. Dinosaur-age fossilized remains of extremely tiny organisms that are found in the sea have been discovered in the center of the arid Australian desert. This confirms that this area was, at least for a short time, under by sea water some 40 million years before Australia’s large inland sea existed.

    I grew up in New Jersey. One of the few memories I have as a child was going down to the clay pits with the boys in search of dinosaurs since they had found one in the area. Sort of a pre-Indiana Jones excursion. But they also found ancient sea creatures in the area. During the Precambrian period, New Jersey was covered by a shallow sea that was home to stromatolite forming bacteria. During the early part of the Paleozoic, New Jersey was still under water. Fossils of various sea creatures were discovered in New Jersey. The state was home to creatures like brachiopods and trilobites. By the Silurian period, the northern part of the state was home to a river system. Sea levels rose and fell throughout the remainder of the state’s Paleozoic rock record long before people existed. There are no local rocks of Carboniferous or Permian age and then during the Triassic, the state became a terrestrial ecoregion. Then there were local lakes which became the home to various crustaceans. On land, dinosaurs left behind footprints and continued to do so into the Jurassic period. Much of the state was covered by sand which became known as the Pinelands.

    The rise and fall of land have been going on for millions of years. It is part of the ecosystem itself and we are a bunch of narcissists to think that we are somehow even capable of changing the climate. We are no more than a flea on the back of a dog that can be shaken off when we become too annoying. When my friend texted me what the professor said that if we stopped driving our cars we could save the Netherlands, I texted back the ancient source I had read back in school.

    There was a Greek geographer and explorer by the name of Pytheas of Massalia, but no copies of this work have survived. Nonetheless, we have others who have quoted Pytheas who recorded an account of the Low Countries, or what we call the Netherlands.  Pytheas passed the Low Countries on his way to Heligoland around c. 325 BC.  He wrote that “more people died in the struggle against water than in the struggle against men”. This is our earliest account of the region. Then we have the Roman author Pliny from the 1st century AD who wrote:

    There, twice in every twenty-four hours, the ocean’s vast tide sweeps in a flood over a large stretch of land and hides Nature’s everlasting controversy about whether this region belongs to the land or to the sea. There these wretched peoples occupy high ground, or manmade platforms constructed above the level of the highest tide they experience; they live in huts built on the site so chosen and are like sailors in ships when the waters cover the surrounding land, but when the tide has receded they are like shipwrecked victims. Around their huts they catch fish as they try to escape with the ebbing tide. It does not fall to their lot to keep herds and live on milk, like neighboring tribes, nor even to fight with wild animals, since all undergrowth has been pushed far back.

    Going back about 2,000 years ago, much of the Netherlands was covered by extensive peat swamps. The coastal dunes formed a natural embankment which prevented the swamps from draining. The first inhabitants were attracted to the rich soil compared to the peat swamps and sandy soil. They appear to have begun to protect themselves against floods by constructing their homes on artificial hills they created of which Pliny wrote about. Archeological evidence suggests that there was a cycle to the region between 500BC and 700AD where there were periods of habitation and abandonment as the sea level rose and fell.

    It was not until the 9th century when the sea level rose again which forced people to raise their artificial hills higher. These small hills began to be connected forming villages and they began to construct dikes when communities could act in unison. It was not until after 1000AD that the population began to grow dramatically. This created more labor but a demand for more land. This is when we see the construction of dikes become more widespread. By 1250 most dikes had been connected into a continuous sea defense.

    The Edict of Expulsion was a royal decree issued by King Edward I (1272-1307) of England on July 18th, 1290, expelling all Jews from the Kingdom of England. Why? The Jews were the king’s personal property, and he was free to tax them at will whereas British citizens could not be taxed without their consent which was obtained from Parliament. Edward I borrowed extensively from the Jews and taxes them to the point that they were no longer a source of revenue. He then expelled them and they were not allowed to take their property so it was the final confiscation to fund his war with France. Meanwhile, it was Philip IV (1268-1314AD) of France who seized the Knights Templar, the Catholic Church moving it to Avignon installing a French Pope, and confiscating the assets of Italian bankers who were lending money to Edward I. This greed for taxation contributed to the first migration of the Jews to the Low Countries.

    Sephardic Spanish Jews had once constituted one of the largest and most prosperous Jewish communities in the world and were regarded as the unquestioned leader of the Jewish world. During this period Sephardic Spanish Jews ended definitively with the anti-Jewish riots of 1391 about 100 years after the 1290 expulsion from England. Then about 100 years later, there was in Spain the Alhambra Decree of 1492 against the Jews. It seems that every time society could not repay the Jewish bankers,  the borrowers suddenly discovered they were OMG Jewish. Consequently, the majority of Jews in Spain around 200,000 converted to Catholicism after the Alhambra Decree. Those who refused were forced into exile and migrated to the Netherlands where they began insurance and trading of commodities, bonds, and stocks in Amsterdam.

    So to me, to even listen to some university professor claim that we can save the Netherlands by reducing CO2, I just cannot believe we have such idiots who know nothing and ignore history entirely while professing to students what amounts to just propaganda. And they want tens of thousands of dollars annually per student to be brainwashed. Unbelievable! Tell a lie often enough, it become a fact and then truth.

  • These Four Predicted The Global Financial Crisis; Here's What They Think Causes The Next One

    A different kind of hurricane slammed into the American East coast, the nation and ultimately the world ten years ago today. 

    Amidst the multiple introspective columns and soul searching that naturally occurred this week, which looked back on the missed warning signs behind the 2008 financial collapse exactly a decade ago this weekend, there is a small group of people whose opinions are actually worth paying attention to.

    Though arguably no single individual accurately called all aspects of the crisis in its entirety, precipitated by the implosion of Lehman Brothers, some did very publicly predict key facets with prophetic clarity. As Market Watch’s Howard Gold explains in his profile of four analysts the world should have been listening to: “People warned about subprime mortgage loans, derivatives, and too much leverage, but nobody, to my knowledge, said a bursting housing bubble would cause a global crisis that would lead to the demise of venerable financial firms, require trillion-dollar taxpayer bailouts, and cause a recession that rivaled only the Great Depression in its magnitude.”

    Trouble is like many religious prophets of ancient history, they were rejected at the time, cast as dour harbingers of gloom and doom.

    Clockwise from upper left: Gary Shilling, Jim Stack, Raghuram Rajan and John Mauldin. Via MarketWatch

    Here are four names and their very public warnings that attempted to jolt the financial and banking sectors out of their sleepy stroll toward the abyss before 2008, as well as their predictions for the next big one, and what to look out for. 

    Howard Gold interviewed each, and laid out the key quotes summarizing then and now…

    Economist A. Gary Shilling

    President of consultancy A. Gary Shilling & Co., he started writing about a housing bubble in the early 2000s which Greg Lippmann (of “The Big Short” fame), credits with giving him the idea to bet against subprime mortgages. Describes Gold, “he warned his newsletter subscribers about a housing bust and wholesale deleveraging of household debt that would hobble the economy for years.”

    And this epic anecdote from the interview

    John Paulson contacted Shilling in August 2006. “He talked about credit default swaps. I didn’t know what they were,” Shilling recalled.

    Shilling did some consulting for Paulson’s hedge fund and even invested what “was for the Shillings a major piece of money in this.” Paulson, of course, loaded up on CDS’s and made $4 billion in what has been called “the greatest trade ever.” “We made 15 times our money,” Shilling says.

    His predictions pre-2008: 

    “Subprime loans are probably the greatest financial problem facing the nation in the years ahead.” —January 2004

    “The [speculative housing] bubble’s break will cause widespread pain…and be much worse economically than the 2000-2002 bear market.”—June 2006

    “We continue to forecast a 25% fall in median single-family house prices nationwide.” —November 2006. 

    What he says now: 

    “The ultimate thing that brings down financial markets is excess leverage … So, you look where’s the big leverage, and right now I think it’s in emerging markets.”

    Shilling is particularly worried about the $8 trillion in dollar-denominated emerging-market corporate and sovereign debt, especially as the U.S. dollar rises along with interest rates. “The problem is as the dollar increases,” he said, “it gets tougher and tougher for them to service [that debt] because it takes more and more of their local currency to do so.” Of that, $249 billion must be repaid or refinanced through next year, Bloomberg reported.

    * * *

    Money manager Jim Stack

    President of Stack Financial Management, which manages $1.3 billion, and InvesTech Research, a newsletter he launched in 1979, Jim Stack as a young analyst first gained some notoriety for calling the 1987 stock market crash. Describes Gold, “As housing prices kept rising, Stack built a proprietary tool called the Housing Bellwether Barometer. He called housing a bubble a year before it peaked and warned of bigger problems ahead for the economy and the markets.”

    His predictions of a new bear market coming were issued even as stocks were hitting all-time highs. 

    His predictions pre-2008: 

    “We are officially calling it a dangerous bubble…I see a trillion+-dollar government bailout of the mortgage industry at some point over the next decade.”—July 2005

    “Our Housing Bubble Index has dropped into a freefall that rivals the dot-com bust of the late 1990s… We are moving to a full bear market defensive mode.”—July 2007

    “We are nowhere near the bottom…It’s only a matter of time…until the housing debacle and credit crisis adversely impact the overall economy, increasing the likelihood of a recession.”—Interview with Equities magazine, November 2007

    What he says now: 

    That housing-related stocks “saw a parabolic run-up” in 2016-17, but in January his index “peaked and now it’s coming down hard.” And this spells “bad news on the housing market looking 12 months down the road.”

    Per Howard Gold’s interview:

    But the biggest danger, Stack told me, is from low-quality corporate debt. Issuance of corporate bonds has “gone from around $700 billion in 2008 to about two and a half times that [today].”

    And, he added, more and more of that debt is subprime. Uh-oh.

    In 2005, he pointed out, companies issued five times as much high-quality as subprime debt, but last year “we had as much subprime debt, poor quality-debt issued, as quality debt on the corporate level,” he said, warning “this is the kind of debt that does get defaulted on dramatically in an economic downturn.”

    Banker Raghuram Rajan

    Previously the IMF’s chief economist and former head of the Reserve Bank of India, Rajan famously presented a paper at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual retreat at Jackson Hole, in August 2005. To illustrate the general obsequiousness and self-congratulatory atmosphere of those times, Rajan recalled that some papers at the conference “focused on whether Alan Greenspan was the best central banker in history, or only among the best.”

    Per Howard Gold: 

    Rajan turned out to be a party pooper, questioning whether “advances” in the financial sector actually increased, rather than reduced, systemic riskFormer Treasury Secretary Larry Summers called him a Luddite. “…I felt like an early Christian who had wandered into a convention of half-starved lions,” he wrote. But though delivered in genteel academic lingo, his paper was powerful and prescient.

    His predictions pre-2008: 

    “Managers…have greater incentive to take risk…because the upside is significant, while the downside is limited.”

    “Moreover, the linkages between markets, and between markets and institutions, are now more pronounced. While this helps the system diversify across small shocks, it also exposes the system to large systemic shocks…”

    “The financial risks that are being created by the system are indeed greater… [potentially creating] a greater (albeit still small) probability of a catastrophic meltdown.”

    What he says now: 

    “There has been a shift of risk from the formal banking system to the shadow financial system.” He also told me the post-crisis reforms did not address central banks’ role in creating asset bubbles through accommodative monetary policy, which he sees as the financial markets’ biggest long-term challenge.

    “You get hooked on leverage. It’s cheap, it’s easy to refinance, so why not take more of it? You get lulled into taking more leverage than perhaps you can handle.”

    And what might be coming:

    Rajan also sees potential problems in U.S. corporate debt, particularly as rates rise, and in emerging markets, though he thinks the current problems in Turkey and Argentina are “not full-blown contagion.”

    “But are there accidents waiting to happen? Yes, there are.”

    * * *

    Writer John Mauldin

    Best known for his free weekly e-letter “Thoughts from the Frontline,” the Dallas-based chairman of Mauldin Economics, John Mauldin began worrying about housing very early, sometimes featuring commentary from Gary Shilling during the run-up to the crisis. Described by Gold, he “said a housing bust would lead to a drop in consumer spending, a bear market, and a recession (though at first he thought it would be a mild one), and that credit default swaps (CDSs) posed a systemic risk.”

    His predictions pre-2008: 

    “A slowing of the housing market, and thus the economy, is in our future… This in turn suggests that as growth in consumer spending slows, a bear market in equities is a high-probability outcome.”—March 2006

    “…The stock market is going to be under considerable pressure next year. The average drop of the markets is about 40% before and in a recession….Dow 9,000 is a real possibility, if not probability”—December 2006. (The Dow bottomed at 6,547.05 in March 2009.)

    “The one true risk that is simply not knowable at this point is in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market….The CDS market is huge, in the hundreds of trillions of dollars and growing dramatically… There is no agency overseeing counter-party risk. This is the one true systemic risk that I see.”—July 2007.

    What he says now: 

    “I think the choice of Europe is… going to have to put [all the debt] on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank. If they don’t, then the euro zone breaks apart and we’re going to get a 50% valuation collapse.”

    “Greece…is a rounding error. Italy is not…. And Brussels and Germany are going to have to allow Italy to overshoot their persistent debt, and the ECB is going to have to buy that debt.”

    “If it doesn’t happen, the debt triggers a crisis in Europe, [and] that triggers the beginning of a global recession” but… “there are so many little dominoes, if they all start falling, one leads to the next.”

    Comments Howard Gold,

    Mauldin estimates the world has almost “half a quadrillion dollars,” or $500 trillion, in debt and unfunded pension and other liabilities, which he views as unsustainable.

    But the flashpoint for the next crisis is likely to be in Europe, especially Italy, he maintains.

  • Wilmington Police Arrest 5 In Post-Hurricane Family Dollar Store Looting After Footage Goes Viral

    Update (8 pm ET): Wilmington police have arrested five suspects after locals broke into and raided a Family Dollar store on Greenfield Street. The store, which is located near a housing project, was the center of some controversy earlier in the day after a video of several suspects fleeing from the store with armfuls of stolen goods went viral.

    Looters

    Police warned that they will pursue any suspects identified via camera footage “to the fullest extent of the law,” according to a message posted on the Wilmington PD Facebook page. The store’s management had initially asked police not to pursue charges, but after consulting with the DA, they have apparently changed their mind…

    “Earlier this afternoon dozens of individuals went into the Family Dollar Store at 1318 Greenfield St and stole numerous items from the store. The looting was captured on social media and by a local news team which notified local police,” the police wrote on Facebook. “When officers arrived they notified store management who did not want to pursue charges initially… After consulting the District Attorney and Family Dollar Management charges will be filed against looters. Moments ago officers arrested five individuals who broke in and looted the Dollar General at 5th & Dawson Streets. Charges are pending and those details will be released as they become available.”

    The town has also instituted a mandatory curfew for the area surrounding the store.

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    A news crew that filmed some of the looting said they were told to stop filming by some of the looters, and that they heard gunshots, according to Raw Story.

    Watch the video of the incident below:

    The names of those arrested have not been released.

    * * *

    Unfortunately for the hundreds of thousands of people fleeing Hurricane (now Tropical Storm) Florence, the rash of empty properties and businesses left behind represent prime targets for criminals seeking to take advantage of the disaster conditions to pull off a few big scores. Residents of Houston endured a wave of looting during Hurricane Harvey last summer, and now it appears that a similar storm-inspired crime wave is afflicting several badly-hit counties in North Carolina.

    In response, police are stepping up efforts to thwart burglaries after police in Brunswick county arrested four young men on burglary-related charges, according to the Charlotte Observer. Another suspect is being sought.

    The Brunswick sheriff’s office posted on Facebook Friday morning that officers had “detained several individuals throughout the night for felony B&E,” prompting sheriff John Ingram to issue a stern warning: Anybody caught looting will be locked up.

    “I want to send a message to the criminal element that’s looking for that opportunity, we’re gonna do everything within our power, to be very vigilant, working with our community, and if you seek to prey upon the citizens of Brunswick County, we’re going to do everything we can to lock you up,” Sheriff Ingram said. “I made sure ahead of time, that we had adequate space for anybody that wanted to try that.”

    The message followed reports that four people were arrested overnight in connection with break-ins of cars and a convenience store.

    Dashaun Smith, 25, and Brandon Bellamy, 30, were jailed on charges of possession of burglary tools and breaking and/or entering after a break-in at Tommy’s Mini Mart in Leland, according to WWAY. Devin Harris, 21, and Justice Harris, 18, were jailed on a charge of breaking and/or entering a vehicle, the station reported.

    All four mug shots were swiftly posted online by the Asheville Citizen-Times:

    Mug

    Mug

    Brunswick isn’t the only county struggling with break-ins. As the Herald pointed out, police in York and Chester counties (in in neighboring South Carolina) also warned that anyone who commits a crime during what likely will be emergency conditions for days during Hurricane Florence will “go to jail.”

    Any attempt during the weather conditions to commit looting, crimes of opportunity at closed businesses or homes, or scams concerning charities or the needy will be investigated and prosecuted, said South Carolina’s police and prosecutors.

    “The York County Sheriff’s Office and all of the local police departments will be extremely vigilant to detect those who will attempt to criminally capitalize on the effects of this storm,” York County Sheriff Kevin Tolson said. “Criminals should know that during weather events such as this, law enforcement is out in full force.”

    Authorities warned any residents remaining in the area to swiftly report any crimes they happen to witness. Under no circumstances should citizens try to handle crimes themselves.

    Chester County Sheriff Alex Underwood said his officers will shuttle emergency health officials to and from Chester’s hospital, assist the elderly and special needs persons, and clear roads and assist flooding victims. But if people commit “awful and intolerable crimes of opportunity” during the emergency, Underwood said there will be “zero tolerance.”

    “Criminals who break the law during this time, when law enforcement is doing all it can to help the public, will go to jail,” Underwood said.

    Tolson and Underwood urge anyone who sees a crime to report it and let law enforcement handle it.

    “Don’t try and handle it yourself,” Underwood said. “Call the law.”

    Meanwhile, the death toll from the storm climbed to at least 5 individuals on Saturday as what is now Tropical Storm Florence slowed to a crawl. Authorities expect torrential rains to continue through the weekend, raising the likelihood of flash flooding and other disasters.

  • California Tops National Poverty Rate As Prime Demographic Plans "Exodus" From State

    Despite efforts by state legislators at creating a socialist utopia, California still has the highest poverty rate in the nation at 19%, despite a 1.4% decrease from last year according to the Census Bureau. 

    Poverty and income figures released Wednesday reveal that over 7 million Californians are struggling to get by in the second most expensive state to live in, according to the Council for Community and Economic Research‘s 2017 Annual Cost of Living Index. 

    And while California has a “vigorous economy and a number of safety net programs to aid needy residents,” according to the Sacramento Bee, one out of every five residents is suffering economic hardship – which is fueled in large part by sky-high housing costs, according to Caroline Danielson, policy director at the Public Policy Institute of California. 

    “We do have a housing crisis in many parts of the state and our poverty rate is highest in Los Angeles County,” she said, adding that cost of living and poverty is often highest in the state’s coastal counties. “When you factor that in we struggle.”

    Silicon Valley residents in particular are leaving in droves – more so than any other part of the state. Nearby San Mateo County which is home to Facebook came in Second, while Los Angeles County came in third.

    They’re looking for affordability and not finding it in Santa Clara County,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com.

    It’s not just housing prices driving the exodus, of course. Punitive taxes – more than twice as much as some other states, are eating away at disposable income. Nearby Arizona’s income tax rate is 4.54% vs. California’s 9.3%, while the new tax bill may accelerate the exodus.

    As Michael Snyder of the Economic Collapse Blog pointed out in May…

    Reasons for the mass exodus include rising crime, the worst traffic in the western world, a growing homelessness epidemic, wildfires, earthquakes and crazy politicians that do some of the stupidest things imaginable.  But for most families, the decision to leave California comes down to one basic factor…

    Money.

    Mass Exodus

    As you may or may not be aware, we’ve mentioned the flood of various types of Californians fleeing the state for various reasons; be it wealthy families who want to keep more of their income safe from the tax man, or poor residents leaving the Golden State because they are being crushed by the high cost of living. 

    To that end, the Orange County Register notes a significant outmigration of people in their child-raising years – as the largest group leaving the state, some 28%, are those aged 35 to 44. 

    According to IRS data from 2015-2016, the latest available, roughly half of those leaving the state make less than $50,000 per year, while roughly 25% of those leaving make over $100,000. 

    What did the OC register conclude?

    Thanks to unaffordable housing, California’s moderate wage earners are going to have to leave the state, while only the wealthy and the impoverished residents will remain. 

    But the big enchilada in California — by far the largest source of distortion in living costs — is housing. Over 90 percent of the difference in costs between California’s coastal metropolises and the country derives from housing. Coastal California is affordable for roughly 15 percent of residents, down from 30 percent in 2000 and 30 percent in the interior, from nearly 60 percent in 2000. In the country as a whole, affordability hovers at roughly 60 percent.

    Over time these factors — along with prospects of reduced immigration — will impact severely the state’s future. California is already seeing its population aged 6 to 17 decline. This reflects a continued drop in fertility in comparison to less regulated, and less costly, states such as Utah, Texas and Tennessee. These areas are generally those experiencing the biggest surge in millennial populations. –OC Register

    And according to ULI, 74% of California millennials are considering an exodus

    Where to? 

    As we noted in June, these are the top 10 California counties that people are leaving, and where they’re headed (via the Mercury News): 

    1. Santa Clara County

    Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Idaho

    In state destinations: Alameda, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Santa Cruz and Placer counties

    2. San Mateo County

    Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Washington

    In state destinations: Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, Sacramento, and San Francisco counties

    3. Los Angeles County

    Out of state destinations: Nevada, Arizona, and Idaho

    In state destinations: San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura and Kern counties

    4. Napa County

    Out of state destinations: Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Florida and Oregon

    In state destinations: Solano, Sonoma, Sacramento, Lake and El Dorado counties

    5. Monterey County

    Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho

    In state destinations: San Luis Obispo, Fresno, Santa Cruz, Sacramento and San Diego counties

    6. Alameda County

    Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, and Hawaii.

    In state destinations: Contra Costa, San Joaquin, Sacramento, Placer, and El Dorado counties

    7. Marin County

    Out of state destinations: Nevada, Arizona, Oregon and Idaho.

    In state destinations: Sonoma, Contra Costa, Solano and San Francisco counties

    8. Orange County

    Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada and Idaho

    In state destinations: Riverside, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Diego and San Luis Obispo

    9. Santa Barbara County

    Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada and Idaho.

    In state destinations: San Luis Obispo, Ventura, Los Angeles, Riverside and Kern counties

    10. San Diego County

    Out of state destinations: Arizona and Nevada

    In state destinations: Riverside, San Bernardino, Imperial, Orange County and Los Angeles

  • Warren Buffett Explains Bubbles: But He Doesn't Know We Are In One

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

    Buffet explains bubbles: “People see neighbors ‘dumber than they are’ getting rich.”

    Warren Buffett explains Why Bubbles Happen

    Buffett was asked by CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin if he is worried another crisis will happen again.

    “Well there will be one sometime,” Buffett said in an interview for CNBC’s “Crisis on Wall Street: The Week That Shook the World” documentary. The documentary airs Wednesday night at 10 p.m. ET/PT.

    “People start being interested in something because it’s going up, not because they understand it or anything else. But the guy next door, who they know is dumber than they are, is getting rich and they aren’t,” he said.

    “And their spouse is saying can’t you figure it out, too? It is so contagious. So that’s a permanent part of the system.”

    That last paragraph perfectly explains Bitcoin. Most of those investing in cryptos have little idea how they work, or what they are even buying.

    Buffet made no mention of the corporate bond bubble, the equities bubble, or even the crypto bubble. He does not see any bubbles now, at least that he mentioned.

    Symptom or Cause?

    Buffett confuses a symptom (rampant speculation) with the true cause

    • The Fed (central banks in general), keep interest rates too low, too long

    • Fractional reserve lending

    • Moral hazards like bank bailouts

    • Poor fiscal policies and massive government debt

    In short, there is no free market in anything and thus no valid price discovery. There would always be speculation, but Fed policies and fractional reserve lending are the root cause of bubbles.

  • Google Engineers Quit After Secretive China Project Links Phone Number To Searches

    A prototype of Google’s censored search engine for China links users’ searches to their personal phone numbers, “thus making it easier for the Chinese government to monitor people’s queries,” reports The Intercept

    Photo: Alex Castro / The Verge

    The search engine, codenamed Dragonfly, revolves around the Android platform and is designed to remove content deemed by government officials to be sensitive or offensive – such as information about protests, free speech, political dissidents, democracy and human rights violations. 

    Sources familiar with the project said that prototypes of the search engine linked the search app on a user’s Android smartphone with their phone number. This means individual people’s searches could be easily tracked – and any user seeking out information banned by the government could potentially be at risk of interrogation or detention if security agencies were to obtain the search records from Google.

    the search platform also appeared to have been tailored to replace weather and air pollution data with information provided directly by an unnamed source in Beijing. The Chinese government has a record of manipulating details about pollution in the country’s cities. One Google source said the company had built a system, integrated as part of Dragonfly, that was “essentially hardcoded to force their [Chinese-provided] data.”The Intercept

    “This is very problematic from a privacy point of view, because it would allow far more detailed tracking and profiling of people’s behavior,” says Human Rights Watch senior internet research Cynthia Wong. “Linking searches to a phone number would make it much harder for people to avoid the kind of overreaching government surveillance that is pervasive in China.”

    Human rights groups have slammed Dragonfly, insisting that it could result in Google “directly contributing to, or [becoming] complicit in, human rights violations.” 

    Google engineers agree – and they’ve been resigning over the ethical concerns with the project

    Approximately 1,400 Google employees have signed a letter circulating within the company, asking executives to explain exactly what the hell is going on. 

    As a company and as individuals we have a responsibility to use this power to better the world, not to support social control, violence, and oppression,” the letter reads. “What is clear is that Ethical Principles on paper are not enough to ensure ethical decision making. We need transparency, oversight, and accountability mechanisms sufficient to allow informed ethical choice and deliberation across the company.” 

    And as The Intercept noted on Thursday, senior Google research scientist Jack Poulson quit over the project, saying that the project violates the company’s artificial intelligence principles, which state that Google won’t create technologies “whose purpose contravenes widely accepted principles of international law and human rights.”

    In early August, Poulson raised concerns with his managers at Google after The Intercept revealed that the internet giant was secretly developing a Chinese search app for Android devices. The search system, code-named Dragonfly, was designed to remove content that China’s authoritarian government views as sensitive, such as information about political dissidents, free speech, democracy, human rights, and peaceful protest.

    After entering into discussions with his bosses, Poulson decided in mid-August that he could no longer work for Google. He tendered his resignation and his last day at the company was August  31. –The Intercept

    “I’m offended that no weight has been given to the human rights community having a consensus,” said Poulson. “If you have coalition letter from 14 human rights organizations, and that can’t even make it into the discussions on the ethics behind a decision, I’d rather stand with the human rights organizations in this dispute.”

    And Poulson isn’t the only one… six other employees have reportedly quit over Dragonfly, as reported by BuzzFeed News

    While current employees declined to provide the list itself or to specify most of the names on it, three sources familiar with the matter confirmed the existence of the list, which is made up largely of software engineers whose experience at Google ranges between one and 11 years. Google declined to comment on the list.

    The revelation of Dragonfly provoked an immediate backlash within the company’s rank and file, who have high expectations for transparency from executives because of Google’s stated corporate values. One employee who’d been asked to work on the project decided to quit, another transferred teams, and internal forums were flooded with thousands of posts, comments, and emails debating the ethics of the project. –BuzzFeed

    Interestingly, sometime between late April and early May, Google dropped their “Don’t be evil” motto of 17 years. Maybe Turkish television has it right?

  • China To Take Over Israel's Largest Port, Could Threaten US Naval Operations

    A top Israeli military and energy official has questioned Israel and China’s growing economic ties just as a Chinese company is set to begin operating Haifa Port as part of a major 25-year contract previously struck in 2015.

    “When China acquires ports,” Israeli Brigadier General Shaul Horev began in an interview this week with national news source, Arutz Sheva, “it does so under the guise of maintaining a trade route from the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal to Europe, such as the port of Piraeus in Greece. Does an economic horizon like this have a security impact?” 

    Gen. Horev, who has also served as navy chief of staff and chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, continued to sound the alarm over a Chinese takeover, “We are not weighing that possibility sufficiently. One of the senior American figures at the conference raised the question of whether the U.S. Sixth Fleet can see Haifa as a home port. In light of the Chinese takeover, the question is no longer on the agenda.”

    He is calling for an Israeli security mechanism that that will review and scrutinize Chinese investments in Israel and the Mediterranean to ensure they don’t harm the security interests of Israel or its partners, like the United States. 

    Chinese military ship at Haifa port in 2012.

    The Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG) will manage Israel’s largest port at Haifa as part of a contract to be inagurated in 2021, which will run for 25 years. Meanwhile a separate Chinese firm was recently awarded a contract to construct a new port in the southern Israeli city of Ashdod.

    According to various reports China has been spending roughly $150bn a year in the countries involved in its massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which seeks to link Asia, Europe, and Africa in a vast Chinese-underwritten free trade infrastructure. Mediterranean outposts like Haifa are a key link in this corridor, a corridor which China hopes will be fully established as a “21st century Silk Road” by 2049. 

    But as we’ve noted recently, major multi-billion dollar infrastructural projects in host counties could come at a cost, namely it could open the door to Chinese spying and expanding influence of its security services

    Representatives of China’s Shanghai International Port (Group) Co Ltd (SIPG) join hands with Israeli port authorites at a ceremony to sign a deal that empowers the Chinese company to run a new port in northern Israel for 25 years on May 29, 2015. Image source: Xinhua News

    The Israeli military official’s statements came after a major defense conference hosted in the city of Haifa last month, where the issue of Chinese economic expansion into Israel was discussed and debated.

    According to Israel’s Haaretz

    The Haifa conference was held in conjunction with the conservative Washington-based Hudson Institute. Several of the American participants were former senior Pentagon and navy personnel. The remarks of the senior figure Horev quoted were sharper than the polite tone he used. The Americans who were at the conference think Israel lost its mind when it gave the Chinese the keys to Haifa Port. Once China is in the picture, they said, the Israel Navy will not be able to count on maintaining the close relations it has had with the Sixth Fleet.

    Critical voices of Israel’s closer relations with China noted that such decisions as the Haifa port deal with the SIPG were made solely under the oversight of the Transportation Ministry and the Ports Authority, but reportedly had no involvement of the the National Security Council or Israel’s navy.  

    USS Iwo Jima docks in the Port of Haifa, via YNet News

    This is concerning, critics say, as President Trump has ratcheted up his rhetoric over China’s threat to American business and interests at home and overseas. 

    The US military for example, routinely conducts exercises with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), and docks ships and carriers at Israeli ports, including Haifa Port soon to be operated by a Chinese company. 

    This is also worrisome considering China’s increased ties with Iran and refusal to abide by White House sanctions on Tehran and Trump’s demand that countries should stop importing Iran’s oil. 

    China had jumped at the opportunity to be a prime mover in Iran’s economy since international sanctions were lifted in January 2016 as part of the 2015 nuclear deal brokered by the United Kingdom, United States, France, Russia, China, and Germany, but which the Trump White House pulled the US out of last May. 

    Relations between China and Iran began to thaw from the moment Chinese President Xi Jinping took office in 2012, and by January 2016 – at the moment sanctions were lifted – Xi visited Tehran, meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani – which marked the first time a Chinese president visited Iran in 14 years.

    Critics of the Chinese takeover of Haifa port say this will grow increasingly awkward for Tel Aviv, which has an official position that Iran seeks to wipe Israel off the map.

    Iran’s President Rouhani and Xi have since the Israel-China Haifa port deal signed agreements related to the Belt and Road. This included 17 multi-billion-dollar deals covering areas of energy, finance, communications, banking, culture, science, technology, and politics, with a further ten year road map of broader China-Iran cooperation. In total this could see trillions pumped into the Iranian economy over the coming decades while physically connecting China with Europe and Africa on an infrastructural level and in an expanding trade relationship.

    And this all brings back the original questions: if China is to play a crucial lifeline for Iran as it attempts to survive aggressive US sanctions, and if Israel is growing economically closer to China, won’t such an alignment be dangerous to Israel’s long term security and its tied-at-the-hip relations to Washington?

    Or perhaps trade and free markets will produce the opposite effect: soften tensions, turn nations away from war and toward pragmatism, and bring greater regional stability.  

  • Kerry Trashes Trump Amidst Iran Row: "8-Year Old Boy With The Insecurity Of A Teenage Girl"

    At the end of a week in which former Secretary of State John Kerry’s unauthorized meetings with top Iranian officials have taken center stage, and in which both President Trump and current Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have publicly thrashed Kerry’s “unheard of” and “illegal meetings” with Iran that “undercut” the White House, Kerry has gone on his own anti-Trump rant

    Appearing on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher Friday night, Kerry slammed the president as having “the maturity of an 8-year-old boy with the insecurity of a teenage girl” in remarks that are sure to continue the ongoing war of words. 

    Kerry has come under fire for discussing the Iran nuclear deal behind Trump’s back. 

    Of course, the usual ultra-liberal Bill Maher and his audience ate it up as Kerry is on a media tour selling his newly published memoir, Every Day is Extraand Kerry will likely milk as much of the attention as he can from his spat with Trump. 

    “He’s the first president that I know of who spends more time reading his Twitter ‘likes’ than his briefing books or the constitution of the United States,” Kerry said on the HBO show.

    “He’s got the maturity of an 8-year-old boy with the insecurity of a teenage girl,” Kerry added to the laughter of the audience. 

    Previously in the week upon news of John Kerry’s Wednesday Hugh Hewitt Show radio interview in which he admitted meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif “three or four times” since Donald Trump took office, President Trump slammed the “illegal meetings” as serving to “undercut” White House diplomatic dealings with Iran.

    Trump further hinted that Kerry violated the Logan Act by rhetorically asking whether Kerry is officially registered as a foreign agent.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The president tweeted: John Kerry had illegal meetings with the very hostile Iranian Regime, which can only serve to undercut our great work to the detriment of the American people. He told them to wait out the Trump Administration! Was he registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act? BAD!

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    When asked about the White House’s potential threats of legal inquiry into the meetings, Kerry dismissed: “There’s nothing unusual about it. The conversation he really ought to be worrying about is Paul Manafort with Mueller.”

    “Unfortunately, we have a president, literally, for whom the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth is three different things, and you don’t even know what they are,” Kerry added.

    We can only imagine how Trump is going to respond, whether on Twitter, or perhaps by announcing a legal inquiry over Kerry possibly breaking the Logan Act and failing to register as a foreign agent, as Trump’s Thursday evening tweet suggested. 

  • Is Trump About To Fire "Moderate Dog" Mattis?

    At long last, amateur political strategists can finally add Defense Secretary James Mattis’ name to the growing list of Trump administration officials who are expected to leave – or rather, be pushed out – after the midterms.

    At last count, that list already included John Kelly, Jeff Sessions and Wilbur Ross. But according to the New York Times and Politico, Trump’s relationship with his purported one-time favorite has been strained, perhaps beyond repair, thanks to Mattis’ continued defiance of administration policies like the ban on transgender service members, torture for terrorist detainees and the continued importance of NATO.

    Mattis

    Politico started the conversation earlier this week when they off-handedly mentioned in a story about – of all things – Sessions’ long-rumored dismissal that Mattis was also on his way out.

    The problem for the White House extends beyond filling the top job at the Justice Department. Trump has for months been mulling the prospect of replacing Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who is now expected to be dismissed or to resign after the midterm elections, too. Once enamored of the retired Marine general and his nickname, “Mad Dog,” the president bragged to donors, “The guy never loses a battle, never loses.” But Trump has slowly come to realize that Mattis’ political views are more moderate than his sobriquet suggests, and the president has taken to referring to him behind closed doors as “Moderate Dog.”

    The White House’s short-list of prospective replacements for Mattis includes two Republican senators who have signaled they aren’t interested in the job, Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Graham, both of whom are up for re-election in 2020, according to people familiar with the matter. And Cotton has already announced his campaign for reelection.

    And the New York Times kept the rumor mill churning with a story by Pentagon correspondent Helen Cooper, who recounted how the relationship between Mattis and Trump has reportedly soured over the past year. Where once Mattis and Trump would huddle in the residence and talk national security policy over a couple of hamburgers, the two men barely speak, as Trump has reportedly largely tuned out his national security staff since the beginning of his second year in office as he’s gained confidence in his own judgment.

    But the burger dinners have stopped. Interviews with more than a dozen White House, congressional and current and former Defense Department officials over the past six weeks paint a portrait of a president who has soured on his defense secretary, weary of unfavorable comparisons to Mr. Mattis as the adult in the room, and increasingly concerned that he is a Democrat at heart.

    Nearly all of the officials, as well as confidants of Mr. Mattis, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the internal tensions — in some cases, out of fear of losing their jobs.

    In the second year of his presidency, Mr. Trump has largely tuned out his national security aides as he feels more confident as commander in chief, the officials said. Facing what is likely to be a heated re-election fight once the 2018 midterms are over, aides said Mr. Trump was pondering whether he wanted someone running the Pentagon who would be more vocally supportive than Mr. Mattis, who is vehemently protective of the American military against perceptions it could be used for political purposes.

    White House officials said Mr. Mattis had balked at a number of Mr. Trump’s requests. That included initially slow-walking the president’s order to ban transgender troops  from the military and refusing a White House demand to stop family members from accompanying troops deploying to South Korea. The Pentagon worried that doing so could have been seen by North Korea as a precursor to war.

    Of course, quotes from Bob Woodward’s book “Fear” that were attributed to Mattis – particularly allegations that Mattis once complained that Trump had the aptitude of a fifth grader while lamenting Trump’s purported inability to grasp the gravity of national security policy – haven’t helped matters, according to the Times. Meanwhile, suspicions that the author of the anonymous NYT op-ed came from within the administration’s national security camp have only aggravated the situation.

    But then again, this wouldn’t be the first time the mainstream media has published a story claiming the imminent departure of a senior administration figure only for said official to obstinately remain in their position past their expected expiration date. According to the NYT, the appointment of Deputy National Security Advisor Mira Ricardel is one sign that the administration is moving to oust Mattis, given his reportedly long-standing bad blood with Ricardel. But then again, how many members of Trump’s inner circle can honestly say they like each other on a personal – or even a professional – level?

    The arrival at the White House earlier this year of Mira Ricardel, a deputy national security adviser with a history of bad blood with Mr. Mattis, has coincided with new assertions from the West Wing that the defense secretary may be asked to leave after the midterms.

    Furthermore, even if he isn’t pushed out, Mattis might opt to leave anyway, since he’s reportedly growing tired of constantly pushing back against his boss’s impulses.

    Mr. Mattis himself is becoming weary, some aides said, of the amount of time spent pushing back against what Defense Department officials think are capricious whims of an erratic president.

    The defense secretary has been careful to not criticize Mr. Trump outright. Pentagon officials said Mr. Mattis had bent over backward to appear loyal, only to be contradicted by positions the president later staked out. How much longer Mr. Mattis can continue to play the loyal Marine has become an open question in the Pentagon’s E Ring, home to the Defense Department’s top officials.

    Then, of course, there’s the issue of how the market might react to Mattis’ departure. Would investors mourn the loss of one of the fabled “adults in the room” by dumping stocks?

    The fate of Mr. Mattis is important because he is widely viewed — by foreign allies and adversaries but also by the traditional national security establishment in the United States — as the cabinet official standing between a mercurial president and global tumult.

    “Secretary Mattis is probably one of the most qualified individuals to hold that job,” Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in an interview. His departure from the Pentagon, Mr. Reed said, “would, first of all, create a disruption in an area where there has been competence and continuity.”

    At this point, it’s certainly possible that we may never find out. Because if Democrats gain even the slightest margin in the Senate, they would have enough votes to sink future Trump nominees – effectively leaving Trump stuck with his cabinet. However, if Republicans successfully fend off the much-hyped blue wave, Trump would have some more leeway to do another round of house cleaning.

    Then again, Trump’s often-tempestuous relationships with members of his inner circle have been so widely documented, it’s virtually impossible to say whether the relationship between the two men might soon recover. Which is why it’s somewhat surprising that the NYT is still running stories like this one, given that nowhere in the text does it say that Mattis’s departure is imminent.

    But of course, the “Crazytown” narrative isn’t going to fuel itself…

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Today’s News 15th September 2018

  • Politicians Warn Spy Chief: There Is A New Threat Called "Deep Fakes"

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    United States politicians are coming up with some wonderful descriptive terms to help use fear to get more restrictive laws passed.  Now lawmakers are warning the spy chief of a real threat called the “deep fakes.”

    Thanks to modern technology, the U.S. government ruling class now has another scary fear-mongering problem they are dubbing “deep fakes.”

    Technology has reached a point where people can now create near-perfect faked videos of people saying things they never actually said, reported Tech Crunch. “Deep fakes” use existing footage mixed with artificial intelligence and machine learning to be made to look like, or at least come close to, the real thing.

    Who else can see the writing on the wall and believes this could be nothing more than a fear mongering attempt to cull free speech even more? Politicians are always looking for reasons to remove rights from others, so it makes sense that they ‘d make a huge deal out of people being able to make realistic videos.  The fight to remain relevant as a politician has begun.

    US lawmakers are so worried about these faked videos that they now claim they can be “used by the enemy to harm national security.” Yet, unsurprisingly, one of the first uses of deep fake videos was for porn. Creators would make videos by superimposing faces onto the bodies of others.  The real issue to the political elites though is scaring the public over “national security.”

    Lawmakers think that deep fakes could be used as part of wider disinformation campaigns in an effort to sway elections or spread false news.  There it is… the fake news shadow. It isn’t the disinformation they care about, its that people just might be able to figure out for themselves who is oppressing them (hint: it isn’t Russia.)

    “Deep fakes could become a potent tool for hostile powers seeking to spread misinformation,” wrote Representative Adam Schiff, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, in a letter to Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence.

    “As deep fake technology becomes more advanced and more accessible, it could pose a threat to United States public discourse and national security, with broad and concerning implications for offensive active measures campaigns targeting the United States,” said the letter, co-signed by Representatives Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) and Carlos Curbelo (R-FL). 

    If you guessed that the government is more likely than not going to use this as an excuse to continue to kill free speech, you’d most likely be correct.

    Schiff, Murphy, and Curbelo want the director of national intelligence (who oversees the nation’s intelligence community) to report back on its assessment of how deep fake technology could harm national security interests, reported Tech Crunch.  They want to know if there are countermeasures (laws, regulations, and the reduction of freedom) to protect against “foreign influence.” The DNI’s office was asked to report back to Congress by mid-December.

  • The Bailouts For The Rich Are Why America Is So Screwed Right Now

    Authored by Matt Stoller via Vice.com,

    Did they prevent a full-scale collapse? Yes. Was it necessary to do it the way we did? Not at all.

    These guys got off pretty easy. (Photo by Scott J. Ferrell/Congressional Quarterly/Getty Images)

    In 1948, the architect of the post-war American suburb, William Levitt, explained the point of the housing finance system. “No man who owns his own house and lot can be a Communist,” he said. “He has too much to do.”

    It’s worth reflecting on this quote on the ten-year anniversary of the financial crisis, because it speaks to how the architects of the bailouts shaped our culture. Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, and Hank Paulson, the three key men in charge, basically argue that the bailouts they executed between 2007 and 2009 were unfair, but necessary to preserve stability. It’s time to ask, though: just what stability did they preserve?

    These three men paint the financial crisis largely as a technical one. But let’s not get lost in the fancy terms they use, like “normalization of credit flows,” in discussing what happened and why. The excessively wonky tone is intentional – it’s intended to hide the politics of what happened. So let’s look at what the bailouts actually were, in normal human language.

    The official response to the financial crisis ended a 75-year-old American policy of pursuing broad homeownership as a social goal. Since at least Franklin Delano Roosevelt, American leaders had deliberately organized the financial system to put more people in their own homes. In 2011, the Obama administration changed this policy, pushing renting over owning. The CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan, echoed this view shortly thereafter. There are many reasons for the change, and not all of them were bad. But what’s important to understand is that the financial crisis was a full-scale assault on the longstanding social contract linking Americans with the financial system through their house.

    The way Geithner orchestrated this was through a two-tiered series of policy choices. During the crisis, everyone needed money from the government, but Geithner offered money to the big guy, and not the little guy.

    First, he found mechanisms, all of them very technical—and well-reported in Adam Tooze’s new book Crashed—to throw unlimited amounts of credit at institutions controlled by financial executives in the United States and Europe. (Eric Holder, meanwhile, also de facto granted legal amnesty to executives for possible securities fraud associated with the crisis.)

    Second, Geithner chose to deny money and credit to the middle class in the midst of a foreclosure crisis. The Obama administration supported this by neutering laws against illegal foreclosures.

    The response to the financial crisis was about reorganizing property rights. If you were close to power, you enjoyed unlimited rights and no responsibilities, and if you were far from power, you got screwed. This shaped the world into what it is today. As Levitt pointed out, when people have no stake in the system, they get radical.

    Did this prevent a full-scale collapse? Yes. Was it necessary to do it the way we did? Not at all.

    Geithner, Bernanke, and Paulson like to pretend that bank bailouts are inherently unpopular—that they were wise stewards resisting toxic (populist) political headwinds. But it’s not that simple. Unfair bank bailouts are unpopular, but reasonable ones are not. For an alternative, look at how a previous generation of Democrats handled a similar, though much more serious, crisis.

    In 1933, when FDR took power, global banking was essentially non-functional. Bankers had committed widespread fraud on top of a rickety and poorly structured financial system. Herbert Hoover, who organized an initial bailout by establishing what was known as the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, was widely mocked for secretly sending money to Republican bankers rather than ordinary people. The new administration realized that trust in the system was essential.

    One of the first things Roosevelt did, even before he took office, was to embarrass powerful financiers. He did this by encouraging the Senate Banking Committee to continue its probe, under investigator Ferdinand Pecora, of the most powerful institutions on Wall Street, which were National City (now Citibank) and JP Morgan. Pecora exposed these institutions as nests of corruption. The Senate Banking Committee made public Morgan’s “preferred list,” which was the group of powerful and famous people who essentially got bribes from Morgan. It included the most important men in the country, like former Republican President Calvin Coolidge, a Supreme Court Justice, important CEOs and military leaders, and important Democrats, too.

    Roosevelt also ordered his attorney general “vigorously to prosecute any violations of the law” that emerged from the investigations. New Dealers felt that “if the people become convinced that the big violators are to be punished it will be helpful in restoring confidence.” The DOJ indicted National City’s Charles Mitchell for tax evasion. This was part of a series of aggressive attacks on the old order of corrupt political and economic elites. The administration pursued these cases, often losing the criminal complaints but continuing with civil charges. This bought the Democrats the trust of the public.

    When Roosevelt engaged in his own broad series of bank bailouts, the people rewarded his party with overwhelming gains in the midterm elections of 1934 and a resounding re-election in 1936. Along with an assertive populist Congress, the new administration used the bailout money in the RFC to implement mass foreclosure-mitigation programs, create deposit insurance, and put millions of people to work. He sought to save not the bankers but the savings of the people themselves.

    Democrats did more than save the economy – they also restructured it along democratic lines. They passed laws to break up banksthe emerging airline industry, and electric utilities. The administration engaged in an aggressive antitrust campaign against industrial monopolists. And Roosevelt restructured the Federal Reserve so that the central bank was not “independent” but set interest rates entirely subservient to the wishes of elected officials.

    In 1938, Franklin Delano Roosevelt offered his view on what causes democracies to fail.

    “History proves that dictatorships do not grow out of strong and successful governments,” he said, “but out of weak and helpless ones.”

    Did the bailouts of ten years ago work? It’s a good question. I don’t see a strong and vibrant democracy in America right now. Do you?

  • China Pressures Wall Street To Intervene In Trade Fight

    If anyone still doubted President Trump’s determination to slap tariffs on all – or even more than all – Chinese goods flowing into the US, they probably don’t anymore. So far this week, the president has taken to twitter to trash his own Treasury Secretary’s efforts to restart talks with the Chinese, before Trump publicly declared on Friday that he intends to move ahead with plans to slap 25% tariffs on another $200 billion worth of goods.

    Given the president’s unflinching resolve in pursuing his trade agenda, it’s understandable why a shrewd businessmen would go to great lengths to avoid getting in the middle of what looks to be a protracted geopolitical dogfight.

    WS

    But unfortunately for top Wall Street firms, many of which harbor ambitions of expanding their business in China, that may no longer be an option. Because while the Trump administration has largely left them alone, the Chinese are now trying to use whatever leverage they can (i.e. preferential access to the world’s second-largest economy) to push America’s top bankers to intervene on Beijing’s behalf.

    Reuters reported Friday that top Chinese officials have hastily organized an investment conference in Beijing and requested the presence of several top Wall Street firms. The conference will be chaired by former PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and ex-Goldman Sachs President John Thornton, and feature an appearance by Chinese vice-president Wang Qishan. Dubbed “the firefighter” by the Chinese people, Quishan, in addition to being the most powerful of China’s vice presidents, is also one of the senior Communist officials involved in managing the trade dispute. 

    While market liberalization is certainly a priority for the Chinese, it’s difficult to imagine that these top officials are planning to attend this conference – especially with so much else going on – just to brainstorm ideas about how China can proceed with opening up its financial sector.

    The subtext here is obvious: China wants to figure out who in the US financial services community can help them get through to Trump and help stop this conflict before losses in China’s currency and stock market spiral out of control. And if the carrot of access doesn’t work, China has already proven adept at leveraging the stick.

    HONG KONG (Reuters) – China will ask Wall Street firms for ways to improve ties with the United States and suggestions to open up its financial sector at a day-long meeting in Beijing on Sunday, people familiar with the matter said.

    The Chinese government sent invitations for the hastily-convened meeting a few weeks ago as trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies appeared to be headed for a full-blown trade war.

    Given the impossible nature of the task at hand, it’s hardly surprising that several top executives – afraid of enraging Trump – are planning to avoid the meeting altogether, citing unspecified “scheduling conflicts”.

    Top financial firms in both countries are sending representatives to the meeting, although heavyweight invitees such as Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman were unable to rearrange their schedules to attend the meeting, a source said.

    While Reuters’ reporters apparently didn’t question this excuse, a “scoop” published on twitter earlier this week by Fox Business correspondent Charlie Gasparino, who reported that the Schwartzman & Co. are avoiding the meeting because they don’t want to feel coerced into carrying water for the Chinese.

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    The tweet didn’t stop Reuters from swallowing the official narrative spoon-fed to them by the “anonymous sources” cited in Reuters‘ story.

    Zhou and Thornton have asked participants to give one or two specific ideas on how to further open up China’s financial sector as well as suggest ways to “forge normal U.S.-China relations for the benefit of our two countries and the world,” according to the people and a meeting agenda seen by Reuters.

    The people, who have knowledge of the meeting, declined to be named as the roundtable details were not public.

    The meeting ideas should be accompanied by specific action points, said one source who was briefed on the agenda.

    “They don’t want something feel-good. It’s got to be specific actionable areas where reform and opening markets is needed,” said one of the sources.

    Chinese government officials will aim to reassure the U.S. financial firms that Beijing is genuinely receptive to their ideas, the source added.

    Reuters reported that several heavyweight names will be attending the conference…

    U.S. participants at the roundtable include Citigroup’s Asia head of corporate investment banking Jan Metzger, Goldman Sachs’ newly-named president John Waldron, JPMorgan Asia CEO Nicolas Aguzin, and Morgan Stanley head of international business Franck Petitgas, the people familiar with the meeting said.

    … however when approached by Reuters’ reporters, most of these companies declined to comment.

    CICC, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Hong Kong’s stock exchange and securities regulator, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley declined to comment.

    If anything, Wall Street’s response to these overtures is, in a way, proof that Trump is right: The Chinese are getting desperate, and the US clearly has the upper hand – at least for now.

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    Fut fortunately for the Chinese, Wall Street isn’t the only industry where China has the leverage to push for a quid-pro-quo. We imagine we’ll be hearing more about China’s efforts to turn Apple’s Tim Cook and his now confirmed anti-Trump Silicon Valley peers into unwitting advocates for China’s cause in the not-too-distant future.

  • The Mueller Investigation Is Sending People to Jail – But Not For Collusion

    Submitted by the Strategic Culture Foundation

    The anonymous government official who revealed a “resistance” inside the White House has heightened the sense of doom hanging over Donald Trump’s presidency. A stream of disparaging claims from other White House insiders, the multiple criminal cases enveloping Trump’s inner circle, and the ongoing special-counsel investigation into possible collusion with the Russian government have all also added to anticipation of Trump’s imminent downfall. But the widespread perception that “the walls are closing in”; on a “ “teetering” Trump presidency is getting ahead of reality. While figures eyed as central to the suspected Trump-Russia conspiracy—campaign volunteer George Papadopoulos, longtime fixer Michael Cohen, and campaign manager Paul Manafort—have been convicted of criminal activity, their cases have not bolstered the case for collusion as many liberals had hoped.

    Last week, Papadopoulos was sentenced to 14 days in prison for lying to the FBI about the timing of his contacts with a Maltese professor, Joseph Mifsud. According to Papadopoulos, Mifsud claimed to have connections to Russia and information that the Kremlin had obtained Hillary Clinton’s stolen e-mails. In May 2016, Papadopoulos relayed vague details about his conversation with Mifsud to Australian diplomat Alexander Downer. According to press accounts, a tip from Downer about his encounter with Papadopoulos sparked the FBI’s “Crossfire Hurricane” investigation into alleged Trump-Russia ties.

    Because Papadopoulos may have purportedly heard about stolen e-mails before their public release, he has been widely scouted as “Exhibit A” for a Trump-Kremlin conspiracy, part of a “secret channel through which the Russian government was able to communicate with the Trump campaign as it stole Democratic emails and weaponized them to help Trump win the presidency,” according to James Risen of The Intercept. In the end, Papadopoulos did not fill that role. According to special counsel Robert Mueller’s sentencing memo, Papadopoulos “did not provide ‘substantial assistance’” during his interviews in August and September of 2017. But in remarks made after his sentencing, Papadopoulos says that “I did my best…and offered what I knew.” It is not a surprise that he did not have much to offer. Not only did the Trump campaign rebuff Papadopoulos’s proposals to set up meetings with Russian officials, Papadopoulos now says that “I never met with a single Russian official in my life.”

    Mueller’s sentencing memo also confirms that after FBI agents interviewed Papadopoulos in January 2017, they interviewed Mifsud just weeks later in Washington, DC. Despite his being the figure whose comments ostensibly led to the opening of the Trump-Russia investigation—making him a suspected Kremlin cutout—Mifsud was not detained then, nor has he been charged since.

    Mueller appears to blame Papadopoulos for this. Papadopoulos, Mueller claims, “substantially hindered investigators’ ability to effectively question” Mifsud when they spoke to him just a few weeks later. Papadopoulos’s lies, they allege, “undermined investigators’ ability to challenge the Professor or potentially detain or arrest him while he was still in the United States.… The defendant’s lies also hindered the government’s ability to discover who else may have known or been told about the Russians possessing ‘dirt’ on Clinton.”

    The claim is puzzling. In his sentencing memo, Mueller acknowledges that Papadopoulos “identified” Mifsud to FBI agents voluntarily, though “only after only after being prompted by a series of specific questions.” That is why Papadopoulos has not pleaded guilty to lying about Mifsud, but only about the timing of his contacts with them: He falsely told agents that he was not yet a member of the Trump campaign when he and Mifsud spoke. In that same interview, Papadopoulos told agents that Mifsud informed him that the Russians “have dirt on [Clinton]” in the form of “thousands of emails.” Given that Papadopoulos not only informed FBI agents of Mifsud’s identity but also of the “dirt” he floated, how could Papadopoulos have “hindered” their ability to find out what Mifsud knows?

    As Papadopoulos appears to exit the collusion bracket, longtime Trump fixer Michael Cohen has recently emerged front and center. On July 26, CNN reported that Cohen is prepared to tell Mueller that Trump had advance knowledge of the June 2016 meeting in Trump Tower with Russian nationals. The incident has been the subject of intense focus because Donald Trump Jr. was promised compromising information about Hillary Clinton as “part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump.”

    Veteran Clinton operative turned Cohen spokesperson Lanny Davis fanned the flames. Hours after Cohen’s indictment on August 21, Davis told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow that Cohen “is more than happy to tell the special counsel all that he knows,” including about “the obvious possibility of a conspiracy to collude.… in the 2016 election” and even “whether or not Mr. Trump knew ahead of time” about Russian e-mail hacking “and even cheered it on.”

    Davis’ qualified language (“obvious possibility,” “whether or not”) was easily overlooked, but the specter of perjury could not be. The co-chairs of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Richard Burr and Mark Warner, noted that Cohen had testified to them last fall that that he has no knowledge of any Trump-Russia collusion and that he didn’t even find out about the Trump Tower meeting until it was publicly reported in June 2017—one year after it took place. Burr and Warner also revealed that in response to CNN’s story, Cohen’s attorneys informed them that he is not changing his testimony.

    Davis quickly dropped the innuendo. Asked by CNN’s Anderson Cooper on August 22 if Cohen has information that Trump knew about the Trump Tower meeting in advance, Davis replied, “ No, he does not.” Davis also abandoned his suggestion, made just 24 hours earlier to Maddow, that Cohen can tie Trump to advance knowledge of Russian e-mail hacking. Davis told Cooper that he was “more tentative on that” and that he only meant that he believes Cohen “may or not be useful” to Mueller, even though “it’s not a certainty the way [Cohen] recalls it.” Davis was, he clarified in the same CNN interview, just relying on his own “intuition.”

    Yet this clarification proved to be more consequential than perhaps Davis intended. The Washington Post and the New York Post revealed that they had used Davis as an anonymous source for their own stories “confirming” the initial July 26 CNN report. “I should have been more clear—including with you—that I could not independently confirm what happened,” Davis told The Washington Post, adding his regrets. Davis also continued to back off of his hacking claims, explaining that he was merely “giving an instinct that [Cohen] might have something to say of interest,” though, yet again, “I am just not sure.”

    But Davis was not done; he then revealed that he had also been used as anonymous source for CNN’s initial story. This did not just raise a sourcing issue for CNN but a potential scandal: In its initial report, CNN had falsely claimed that Davis had declined to comment. This meant that CNN had not just relied on a source who no longer stood by his story, but mislead readers into believing that he was not a source. To date, CNN has yet to offer an explanation for the gaffe—which, along with the failure to explain it—is not a first.

    In his dizzying retraction tour, Davis also raised doubts about another story that had been circulating for months. In April, McClatchy reported that Mueller’s team has information about Cohen that could corroborate a key claim in the Steele dossier, the DNC-funded report alleging a high-level conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. The dossier claims that Cohen visited Prague in August or September 2016 to meet with Russian officials as part of his key role “in a cover up and damage limitation operation” over the hacking of Democratic Party emails. Citing two sources, McClatchy claimed that Mueller “has evidence” that Cohen secretly visited Prague during the period in question. Davis now says that that claim is false. Cohen, Davis told MSNBC’s Chuck Todd, was “never, ever in Prague.”

    The only story Cohen has affirmed is the one he shared in court: that Trump, in order to influence the election outcome, directed him to make a hush-money payment to cover up for an extramarital affair. That allegation may or may not prove to be sufficient grounds for impeachment, but they decidedly do not fall under Robert Mueller’s purview.

    Cohen’s indictment coincided with Paul Manafort’s conviction on tax-evasion and bank-fraud charges related to his political consulting work in Ukraine. It is often speculated that Manafort’s Ukraine stint is relevant to a Trump-Russia conspiracy plot because, the theory goes, he served Kremlin interests during his time there. The opposite is the case, as Manafort’s former partner-turned-prosecution-witness, Rick Gates, reaffirmed during trial. Gates testified that Manafort pushed his client, then–Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, to align with the European Union and away from Russia. According to Gates, Manafort was paid lucratively to craft a policy known as “Engage Ukraine,” which “became the strategy for helping Ukraine enter the European Union.” Given that the tug-of-war between Russia and the EU (with US backing) over Ukraine sparked a full-blown international crisis and a new Cold War, Manafort’s strategy would be an odd one for a supposed Kremlin stooge.

    Putting aside Manafort’s record in Ukraine, there have been attempts to tie him to a potential Russia conspiracy via his financial debts to Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska. During the campaign, Manafort wrote to an associate about leveraging his position in the Trump camp in order to “get whole” with Deripaska, even suggesting that he offer “private briefings.” Could this have been, pundits suggest, where a collusion plot was hatched?

    Deripaska denies ever having been offered private briefings by Manafort. Another impediment to tying Deripaska to a Trump-Russia collusion plot is that Deripaska has connections to the figure arguably most responsible for the allegations of collusion. Christopher Steele, the former British intelligence agent whose DNC-funded “dossier” alleged a longstanding Trump-Kremlin conspiracy, has served as an intermediary for contacts between Deripaska and US officials. Deripaska even has a link to Mueller and the federal agency he once headed. In 2009, when Mueller was in charge of the FBI, Deripaska ponied up millions of dollars for a secret effort to rescue a captured CIA operative, Robert Levinson, in Iran. In return, the FBI—with the encouragement of Steele—helped secure a visa for Deripaska, who had been banned from the United States for alleged ties to Russian organized crime. In short, Deripaska’s various contacts make plain that Manafort’s financial ties to him, illicit or not, do not necessarily lead to a Kremlin conspiracy.

    Most critically, Mueller has yet to allege one. Prosecutors openly acknowledged before Manafort’s first trial that the case had nothing to do with “evidence or argument concerning collusion with the Russian government,” while the judge in Manafort’s upcoming second trial notes that the collusion investigation is “wholly irrelevant to the charges in this case.”

    The same could be said for all of the other charges in the Mueller investigation to date. Mueller has uncovered criminal activity, but not as of yet a conspiracy with a foreign power. Should that trend continue, it need not be a defeat for the resistance. The Russiagate fixation has diverted attention from many of Trump’s damaging policies and turned vast segments of the public into spectators of an endless drama. A political opposition mobilized around a range of issues that materially impact Americans—and no longer counting on Mueller’s investigation—may be the strongest threat that Trump could face.

    Aaron MATÉ | thenation.com

  • NFL Hell Continues As Ratings Crater For Dallas Cowboys 

    The NFL – suffering from dismal ratings for last week’s opening game and Sunday Night Football, may be in for a serious decline in viewers this season if Dallas local TV ratings are any indicator – after the Cowboys registered their lowest local ratings since 2009

    the Dallas market is an important market for one of the most watched teams in the country. There is a reason the Cowboys are valued at over $4 billion dollars. They absolutely own Dallas Fort-Worth. Nothing else really matters.

    The NFL does not want to see one of it’s most important market losing fans. It’s not a good look. It’s cause for concern.Touchdownwire

    That said, some have pointed out that the cowboys are “boring” now…  

    No one should be surprised. The Cowboys, while still a compelling aspect of the overall fabric of the NFL, have become a somewhat boring team, with a Salisbury-steak-and-lumpy-spuds offense that features two stars, a diminished offensive line, and a collection of No. 2 and No. 3 receivers. –Profootballtalk

    Less viewers, more money

    Despite a steady decline in viewership over the last three years, advertising revenues have continued to climb. 

    “Everyone loves to focus on the ratings, and everyone loves to focus on the NFL because it is the biggest ratings on television,” said Brian Rolapp, the league’s head of media. “But the reality is: Historically, the ratings of the NFL have always gone up, they’ve just never gone up in a straight line.”

    With ratings for regular-season games having fallen 17% over the past two years according to Nielsen, and youth participation in tackle football declined nearly 22% since 2012, Smith College Econ professor Andrew Zimbalist thinks “The NFL probably peaked two years ago,” adding “It’s basically treading water.” 

    Yet even a middling franchise, the Carolina Panthers, sold in May for a league record $2.3 billion. Advertisers spent a record $4.6 billion for spots during NFL games last season, as well as an all-time high $5.24 million per 30 seconds of Super Bowl time. The reason is clear: In 2017, 37 of the top 50 broadcasts on U.S. television were NFL games, including four of the top five.

    The Green Bay Packers, the only NFL team that shares financial statements with the public, has posted revenue increases for 15 straight seasons. Leaguewide revenue has grown more than 47 percent since 2012. Commissioner Roger Goodell’s official target is $25 billion in revenue by 2027, or roughly 6 percent annual growth. –Bloomberg

    That said, the future of the NFL’s advertising model may be on shaky footing – as their three-hour blocks of big-screen television run counter to the shorter formats, smaller screens and zero interruption format consumers have been gravitating towards. 

    If I’m sitting at the NFL, I’m certainly getting nervous about the future of broadcast TV,” says BTIG media analyst Rich Greenfield.

    That said, the NFL’s Rolapp doesn’t seem too concerned. “The fundamental rule in media is money always follows consumption,” says Rolapp. “If you have the consumption, figuring out how to make money off it is not the hard part.”

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  • Visualizing The AI-mazing Patent Race

    Artificial Intelligence is transforming the way we live, and the tech giants are racing to stay ahead of the curve.

    AI-related funding totaled an estimated $15.2 billion in 2017, a 144% increase over the previous year. The U.S. tech industry leads with a 50% share of those investments, even with China swiftly closing the gap in terms of patents and AI research.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

    AI itself isn’t new, but, as Visual Capitalist’s Jenny Scribani points out, boosted computing power, increased connectivity, and the sheer volume of data has paved the way for the fourth industrial revolution of AI.

    “The coming era will be looked back upon as the ‘AI era,’ when AI became the defining competitive advantage for corporations, government agencies, and investment professionals,” predicts David Nadler, founder of Kensho Technologies.

    THE POTENTIAL OF AI

    Artificial Intelligence is less about sentience and more about accelerated learning.

    AI technology looks for patterns, learns from experience, and predicts responses based on historical data. An AI-powered computer can’t produce a unique thought, but it can probably predict yours. The end result: AI is able to learn new things at such a speed that it can predict your behavior and preempt your requests.

    From the advancements in natural language processing that make Siri and Alexa possible, to the machine learning advancements that give robo-advisors their trading chops, AI’s ability to simulate human thinking means it can also streamline our lives. It can preempt our needs and requests, making products and services more user friendly as machines learn our needs and figure out how to serve us better.

    This makes AI a vital source of competitive advantage.

    AI’S COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

    In their quest to stay on top of the Silicon Valley food chain, familiar tech and retail giants are dipping their toes in AI to execute diverse strategies:

    Amazon
    Amazon leverages AI technology to analyze and predict your shopping patterns. Alexa is very Artificially Intelligent indeed, and the revolutionary Amazon Go model continues to push the boundaries of AI tech on the ground.

    Google
    Google uses machine learning and pattern recognition in its search and facial recognition services, as well as natural language processing for real-time language translation. The company has also released a series of smart home products, like the Nest thermostat. After acquiring more than 50 AI startups in 2015-16, this seems like only the beginning for Google’s AI upgrade.

    Microsoft
    Microsoft’s Cortana is powered by machine learning, allowing the virtual assistant to build insight and expertise over time. In 2016, the tech giant added Research and AI as their fourth silo alongside Office, Windows, and Cloud, with the stated goal of making broad-spectrum AI application more accessible and everyday machines more intelligent.

    Apple
    Apple is notoriously tight-lipped about their AI research, but it’s safe to say Siri is only the tip of the iceberg. The tech giant received a patent this year for augmented-reality glasses, slated for a release in 2020.

    Facebook
    Facebook uses artificial intelligence to suggest photo tags, populate your newsfeed, and detect bots and fake users. The social media giant has also come under fire for their widespread use of AI analytics to target users for marketing and messaging purposes.

    These tech kings are driving the research that will increasingly intertwine our lives with artificial intelligence, and it’s that investment that just might secure their future.

  • Yet Another Unfunded Liability: Too Many People In Hurricane Alley

    Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

    One of the big recent changes in American life is the ongoing mass-migration from the middle of the country to the coasts, especially those of the Southeastern and Gulf States. Florida and the Carolinas, along with Houston and surrounding Texas counties, have gained millions of new residents seeking to trade snow and monotony for sun and water. Coastal state governments have by-and-large encouraged this immigration and the resulting construction, paving, and deforestation because new residents pay taxes and developers contribute to political campaigns.

    This is turning out to be a huge, perhaps insanely expensive mistake, similar in a lot of ways to out-of-control public pensions: A short-term benefit that produces long-term costs – i.e., an unfunded liability – which accumulates more-or-less secretly until something happens to turn an accounting issue into a cash flow nightmare.

    Consider Houston. Over the past few decades hundreds of thousands of people have moved in, and developers have accommodated them by paving over much of the land that used to absorb floodwaters during storms. When hurricane Harvey hit in 2017, the city found itself underwater for days, with damages totaling $125 billion. Much of this was covered by tax payers via federal flood insurance.

    Now fast forward to today’s North and South Carolina, also very popular destinations for Americans from colder climes, and the scene of rapid construction of homes, hotels and stores within a few miles of the ocean. In the following article, the New York Times lays out the downside of this kind of short-sighted public policy.

    Why the Carolinas Have Become More Vulnerable to Hurricanes

    Twenty-nine years ago this month, Hurricane Hugo barreled ashore just north of Charleston, S.C., a category 4 storm with maximum winds estimated at 140 miles an hour and the highest storm tide ever recorded on the East Coast.

    Here is where people lived in the region in 1990. Hugo was the nation’s costliest hurricane ever at the time, with damages of about $7 billion.

    Over the next three decades, an estimated 610,000 homes were added within 50 miles of the coastline, according to my research.

    Most will be affected by Hurricane Florence, the monster storm that is advancing on the coast, with landfall expected Friday morning.

    We often hear that climate change is influencing the frequency and strength of tropical storms, heat waves and wildfires, and this is certainly true, though it is too early to say what influence the warming temperatures may be having on Hurricane Florence. That answer must await a post-mortem by climate scientists. But it is also true that rapid coastal development is amplifying the impact of weather and climate events like Hurricane Hugo and those expected with Hurricane Florence over the next few days.

    In fact, according to research by me and colleagues, the root cause of the country’s escalating number of weather- and climate-related disasters is not necessarily a rise in the frequency or intensity of these events but the increasing exposure and vulnerability of populations that lie in their path.

    That may seem obvious, though perhaps not for the people who have moved to places that are likely to end up disaster areas someday. That fact has either escaped their notice or seems to be of little consequence to them.

    This process of population and development growth that influences disaster frequency and magnitude is known as “expanding the bull’s-eye effect.” It isn’t just the population increase that is important in raising the disaster potential but also how the population and built environment are distributed across a landscape. As the targets — people, homes and businesses — become more numerous and spread, so does the likelihood that it will be hit by a tornado or hurricane or wildfire. And that expanding pattern determines the severity of the disaster.

    Since 1940, development within 50 miles of the Carolina coastline has increased an estimated 2,180 percent, or by 1.3 million homes. And as I mentioned, nearly half of this development has taken place since Hurricane Hugo, and many of these homes were added in high-risk areas like floodplains.

    There seems to be something of a “disaster amnesia” going on with respect to our land development practices after a calamity.

    More than a decade ago, 10 leading climate experts felt compelled to issue a statement saying the debate then about whether global warming was intensifying hurricanes was a distraction from “the main hurricane problem facing the United States.” The problem, they said, was the continued “lemming-like march to the sea” in the form of unabated coastal development in vulnerable places. “These demographic trends,” they said, “are setting us up for rapidly increasing human and economic losses from hurricane disasters.”

    We know much more about how the warming climate is influencing tropical storms. And in many places along the nation’s coastlines, the lemmings are still marching toward the sea.

    Nearly 30 percent of the American population lives along a coast, and an even larger percentage resides in flood-prone regions. The Census Bureau recently reported that the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions have continued to grow despite costly and damaging hurricanes, with their combined populations rising to 59.6 million people in 2016 from 51.9 million in 2000.

    It is not a matter of whether a disaster will strike, but when for individuals living in many of these regions.

    And when disaster knocks at the door, the bill is left to taxpayers who subsidize the National Flood Insurance Program. That money is often used to rebuild homes in the same high-risk locations. Unfortunately, given current insurance programs, rates that don’t reflect the true risk of insured entities in hazard-prone regions and the lack of incentives to persuade people not to live in these areas, the system we have is unsustainable.

    We need to be smarter about where we are developing and how we’re doing it, building in resilience in any new construction in areas prone to weather and climate extremes. People who choose to live in high-risk areas should bear the cost when disaster strikes. Of course, we should be helping people hit by storms like Hurricane Florence. But I’d rather see those dollars directed to hazard mitigation, and making existing and future development better able to withstand a disaster before one hits.

    Just because we can live somewhere doesn’t mean we should. After all, as the saying goes, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.”

    Among the many crucial quotes from the above article: “In fact, according to research by me and colleagues, the root cause of the country’s escalating number of weather- and climate-related disasters is not necessarily a rise in the frequency or intensity of these events but the increasing exposure and vulnerability of populations that lie in their path.”

    In other words, you don’t need climate change to make the policy of encouraging people to move to hurricane alley a bad idea. There have always been – and always will be — monster storms, so a continuation of historically normal weather guarantees the occasional Cat-5 direct hit on the Eastern Seaboard. The more people we put there, the higher the cost of cleaning up afterward.

    And since we haven’t had a direct hit in quite a while, no one seems to understand just how much all those extra buildings will cost to replace. In this sense, Cat-2 Hurricane Florence is a taste of things to come, but just a taste. The main course is the inevitable “big one” that hits Miami, after which we’ll finally be able calculate this latest unfunded liability.

  • Pat Buchanan On The "Unpardonable Heresy" Of Tucker Carlson

    Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    Our diversity is our greatest strength.

    After playing clips of Democratic politicians reciting that truth of modern liberalism, Tucker Carlson asked, “How, precisely, is diversity our strength? Since you’ve made this our new national motto, please be specific.”

    Reaction to Carlson’s question, with some declaring him a racist for having raised it, suggests that what we are dealing with here is not a demonstrable truth but a creed not subject to debate.

    Yet the question remains valid:

    Where is the scientific, historic or empirical evidence that the greater the racial, ethnic, cultural and religious diversity of a nation, the stronger it becomes?

    From recent decades, it seems more true to say the reverse: The more diverse a nation, the greater the danger of its disintegration.

    Ethnic diversity, after all, tore apart our mighty Cold War rival, splintering the Soviet Union into 15 nations, three of which — Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia — have since split further along ethnic lines.

    Russia had to fight two wars to hold onto Chechnya and prevent the diverse peoples of the North Caucasus from splitting off on ethnic grounds, as Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan had done.

    Ethnic diversity then shattered Yugoslavia into seven separate nations.

    And even as we proclaim diversity to be our greatest strength, nations everywhere are recoiling from it.

    The rise of populism and nationalism across Europe is a reaction to the new diversity represented by the Arab, Asian and African millions who have lately come, and the tens of millions desperate to enter.

    Center-left and center-right parties are losing ground in European elections because they are seen as feckless in meeting what more and more indigenous Europeans believe to be an existential threat — mass migration from across the Med.

    Japan’s population has ceased to grow, and each year brings fewer toddlers into its schools. Yet Tokyo resists the racial and ethnic diversity greater immigration would bring. Why, if diversity is a strength?

    What South Koreans dream of is uniting again with the 22 million separated members of their national family who live in the North, but share the same history and blood.

    This summer, in its Basic Law, Israel declared itself an ethnonational state and national home of the Jewish people. African migrants crossing the Sinai to seek sanctuary in Israel are unwelcome.

    Consider China, which seeks this century to surpass America as the first power on earth. Does Xi Jinping welcome a greater racial, ethnic and cultural diversity within his county as, say, Barack Obama does in ours?

    In his western province of Xinjiang, Xi has set up an archipelago of detention camps. Purpose: Re-educate his country’s Uighurs and Kazakhs by purging them of their religious and tribal identities, and making them and their children more like Han Chinese in allegiance to the Communist Party and Chinese nation.

    Xi fears that the 10 million Uighurs of Xinjiang, as an ethnic and religious minority, predominantly Muslim, wish to break away and establish an East Turkestan, a nation of their own, out of China. And he is correct.

    What China is doing is brutalitarian. But what China is saying with its ruthless policy is that diversity — religious, racial, cultural — can break us apart as it did the USSR. And we are not going to let that happen.

    Do the Buddhists of Myanmar cherish the religious diversity that the Muslim Rohingya of Rakhine State bring to their country?

    America has always been more than an idea, an ideology or a propositional nation. It is a country that belongs to a separate and identifiable people with its own history, heroes, holidays, symbols, songs, myths, mores — its own culture.

    Again, where is the evidence that the more Americans who can trace their roots to the Third World, and not to Europe, the stronger we will be?

    Is the Britain of Theresa May, with its new racial, religious and ethnic diversity, a stronger nation than was the U.K. of Lloyd George, which ruled a fourth of mankind in 1920?

    Was it not the unity Bismarck forged among the diverse Germanic peoples, bringing them into a single nation under the Kaiser in 1871, that made Germany a far stronger and more formidable power in Europe?

    Empires, confederations and alliances are multiethnic and multicultural. And, inevitably, their diversity pulls them apart.

    The British Empire was the greatest in modern history. What tore it apart? Tribalism, the demands of diverse peoples, rooted in blood and soil, to be rid of foreign rule and to have their own place in the sun.

    And who are loudest in preaching that our diversity is our strength?

    Are they not the same people who told us that democracy was the destiny of all mankind and that, as the world’s “exceptional nation,” we must seize the opportunity of our global preeminence to impose its blessings on the less enlightened tribes of the Middle East and Hindu Kush?

    If the establishment is proven wrong about greater diversity bringing greater strength to America, there will be no do-over for the USA.

  • Strzok Wanted To Hunt Down Trump Ties Using FBI "Steele Dossier" Report Leaked To CNN
    • Uncovered text messages reveal that FBI agent Peter Strzok wanted to use CNN’s “bombshell” report about the infamous “Steele Dossier” to interview witnesses in the Trump-Russia probe
    • CNN used leaked knowledge that Comey briefed Trump on the dossier as a trigger to publish 
    • The FBI knew of CNN’s plans to publish, confirming a dialogue between the FBI and CNN
    • This is particularly damning in light of revelations of FBI-MSM collusion against the Trump campaign

    Newly revealed text messages between former FBI agent Peter Strzok and former FBI attorney Lisa Page reveal that Strzok wanted to use CNN’s report on the infamous “Steele Dossier” to justify interviewing people in the Trump-Russia investigation, reports CNN

    Sitting with Bill watching CNN. A TON more out,” Strzok texted to Page on Jan. 10, 2017, following CNN’s report. 

    “Hey let me know when you can talk. We’re discussing whether, now that this is out, we use it as a pretext to go interview some people,” Strzok continued. 

    Recall that CNN used the (leaked) fact that former FBI Director James Comey had briefed then-President-Elect Donald Trump on a two-page summary of the Steele Dossier to justify printing their January report

    This is a troubling development in light of a May report that the FBI knew that CNN was “close to going forward” with the Steele Dossier story, and that “The trigger for them is they know the material was discussed,” clearly indicating active communications between CNN and the FBI. 

    Weeks later, as the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross notes, the FBI approached former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos “under the guise of interviewing him about his contacts with an alleged source for the dossier.” 

    In short, knowledge of the Comey-Trump briefing was leaked to CNN, CNN printed the story, Strzok wanted to use it as a pretext to interview people in the Trump-Russia investigation, and weeks later George Papadopoulos became ensnared in their investigation. 

    And when one considers that we learned of an FBI “media leak strategy” this week, it suggests pervasive collusion between Obama-era intelligence agencies and the MSM to defeat, and then smear Donald Trump after he had won the election. 

    Text messages discussing the “media leak strategy” were revealed Monday by Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC). The messages, sent the day before and after two damaging articles about former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, raise “grave concerns regarding an apparent systematic culture of media leaking by high-ranking officials at the FBI and DOJ related to ongoing investigations.” 

    A review of the documents suggests that the FBI and DOJ coordinated efforts to get information to the press that would potentially be “harmful to President Trump’s administration.” Those leaks pertained to information regarding the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court warrant used to spy on short-term campaign volunteer Carter Page.

    The letter lists several examples:

    • April 10, 2017: (former FBI Special Agent) Peter Strzok contacts (former FBI Attorney) Lisa Page to discuss a “media leak strategy.” Specifically, the text says: “I had literally just gone to find this phone to tell you I want to talk to you about media leak strategy with DOJ before you go.”
    • April 12, 2017: Peter Strzok congratulates Lisa Page on a job well done while referring to two derogatory articles about Carter Page. In the text, Strzok warns Page two articles are coming out, one which is “worse” than the other about Lisa’s “namesake”.” Strzok added: “Well done, Page.” –Sara Carter

    Recall that Strzok’s boss, former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, was fired for authorizing self-serving leaks to the press.

    Also recall that text messages released in January reveal that Lisa Page was on the phone with Washington Post reporter Devlin Barrett, then with the New York Times, when the reopening of the Clinton Foundation investigation hit the news cycle – just one example in a series of text messages matching up with MSM reports relying on leaked information, as reported by the Conservative Treehouse

    ♦Page: 5:19pm “Still on the phone with Devlin. Mike’s phone is ON FIRE.”

    ♥Strzok: 5:29pm “You might wanna tell Devlin he should turn on CNN, there’s news on.”

    ♦Page: 5:30pm “He knows. He just got handed a note.”

    ♥Strzok: 5:33pm “Ha. He asking about it now?”

    ♦Page: 5:34pm “Yeah. It was pretty funny. Coming now.”

    At 5:36pm Devlin Barrett tweets:

    Meadows says that the texts show “a coordinated effort on the part of the FBI and DOJ to release information in the public domain potentially harmful to President Donald Trump’s administration. 

    Revisiting the FBI-CNN connection

    Going back to the internal FBI emails revealed in May by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), we find that McCabe had advance knowledge of CNN’s plans to publish the Steele Dossier report.

    In an email to top FBI officials with the subject “Flood is coming,” McCabe wrote: “CNN is close to going forward with the sensitive story … The trigger for them is they know the material was discussed in the brief and presented in an attachment.” McCabe does not reveal how he knew CNN’s “trigger” was Comey’s briefing to Trump.

    McCabe shot off a second email shortly thereafter to then-Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates along with her deputy, Matthew Alexrod, with the subject line “News.” 

    Just as an FYI, and as expected,” McCabe wrote, “it seems CNN is close to running a story about the sensitive reporting.” Again, how McCabe knew this is unclear and begs investigation. 

    Johnson also wanted to know when FBI officials “first learned that media outlets, including CNN, may have possessed the Steele dossier. ”  

    As The Federalist noted in May, “To date, there is no public evidence that the FBI ever investigated the leaks to media about the briefing between Trump and Comey. When asked in a recent interview by Fox News Channel’s Bret Baier, Comey scoffed at the idea that the FBI would even need to investigate the leak of a secret briefing with the incoming president.”

    Did you or your subordinates leak that?” Baier asked.

    No,” Comey responded. “I don’t know who leaked it.

    Did you ever try to find out?” Baier asked.

    Who leaked an unclassified public document?” Comey said, even though Baier’s question was about leaking details of a briefing of the incoming president, not the dossier. “No,” Comey said.

    And now it looks like we have an answer for why the FBI never investigated the leak…

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