Today’s News 6th August 2018

  • 92% Of Turks Believe In Human Rights…

    A new Ipsos MORI poll of 23,249 adults in 28 countries has explored feelings about human rights across the world.

    As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, one of its core findings is that 43 percent of people globally agree that everyone in their country enjoys the same basic human rights. When asked if there is such thing as human rights, opinion varied hugely by country, with a selection of countries polled visualized on the following infographic.

    Infographic: Where People Do And Don't Believe In Human Rights  | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    In Turkey, 92 percent of those polled said there is such thing as human rights while only five percent said there is not.

    85 percent of Chinese respondents also agreed there is such thing as human rights, along with 80 percent of Americans.

    Interestingly, only 29 percent of people in Poland say there is no such thing as human rights.

  • Britain Welcomes Radicals – Again And Again

    Authored by Douglas Murray via The Gatestone Institute,

    It is more than a year since the UK suffered three Islamist terrorist attacks in quick succession. It is also more than a year since the Prime Minister, Theresa May, stood on the steps of Downing Street and announced that ‘enough is enough‘.

    Yet the striking aspect of the last year has been how little has changed.

    Consider, for instance, the lax controls on extremist preachers that the UK had in place in 2016. As reported here at the time, in the summer of that year, two Pakistani clerics performed a tour of the UK. Their seven-week roadshow took in numerous UK hotspots including Rochdale, Rotherham, Oldham and the Prime Minister’s own constituency of Maidenhead. The two clerics — Muhammad Naqib ur Rehman and Hassan Haseeb ur Rehman — began their tour by visiting the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, at Lambeth Palace for a meeting on ‘interfaith relations’.

    How expert are these two clerics at ‘interfaith relations’? Well, they are so good that their main credential is their enthusiastic support for the murderer of somebody accused of ‘blasphemy’. Yes — these two preachers are famed in Pakistan for having supported Mumtaz Qadri, the murderer of the progressive Punjab Governor Salman Taseer. Because Taseer believed in a relaxation of Pakistan’s barbaric blasphemy codes (specifically he opposed the execution of a Christian woman — Asia Bibi — who was falsely accused of blaspheming the Muslim god), Qadri — who was meant to be guarding the governor — instead murdered Taseer in 2011. Qadri himself was subsequently tried, sentenced to death and executed by the state. After Qadri’s funeral in Rawalpindi, Hassan Haseeb ur Rehman whipped up the crowds of the murderer’s mourners. Rehman acclaimed the murderer Qadri as a ‘shaeed’ (martyr). The crowd subsequently chanted slogans such as ‘Qadri, your blood will bring revolution’ and ‘the punishment for a blasphemer is beheading’.

    Pictured: Salman Taseer, the late Governor of Punjab, Pakistan, accompanied by his wife Aamna, prepares to meet the US Ambassador to Pakistan on November 6, 2010. (Image source: Salman Taseer/Flickr)

    Despite criticism from Shahbaz Taseer (the son of the man whom Qadri had murdered), the UK government had no problem allowing into the UK these two men who, as Shahbaz Taseer said, ‘teach murder and hate’. On their tour of the UK in 2016, these two preachers were reported to have spoken to mosques packed with worshipers.

    A forgiving person might point out that the Archbishop of Canterbury does not know what he is talking about when he claims that Rehman and Rehman are interfaith experts, and that until 2016 the UK border agencies and other authorities could not have known that the two men are preachers of incitement in their home country. A forgiving person might even have thought all these authorities were naïve but would not be so naïve again.

    In 2017, however, it did happen again. In July of last year the clerics were back, ostensibly speaking at a conference on ‘counter-terrorism’. The idea that either man would know how to counter terrorism when the only expertise that either man has is in encouraging terrorism makes their presence at such an event insulting to anyone involved in countering terrorism. Even more so given that their main facilitator in the UK would appear to be the head of the one-man organisation calling itself the ‘Ramadan Foundation’, run by Mohammed Shafiq, a man with his own dark history of extremism and incitement.

    A cynical person might assume that the UK authorities had let these radical preachers in the first time because they were ignorant, and the second time perhaps because they were slow. But how to account for events just last month? In July of this year, Hassan Haseeb ur Rehman was in the UK yet again — and againin Oldham. Also again, his visit appears to have been facilitated by the one-man-band, Mohammed Shafiq. The latest bogus ‘counter-terrorism conference’ at which he was speaking also involved not only local MP (and Shadow Home Office Minister) Afzal Khan, but also the father and grandmother of one of the victims of last year’s Islamist suicide bomb attack at the Manchester Arena.

    Hassan Haseeb ur Rehman, in his address at the conference, reportedly said:

    “I stand before you to say we as Muslims stand against terrorism, these vile people are enemies of Islam and the whole of humanity.

    “My mission in life is to promote tolerance and peace, you can see from the thousands who attend my events in Pakistan there is a yearning for the true message of Islam which is Peace and tolerance.

    “I am honoured to visit Manchester to remember the victims and their families of the Manchester Arena attack and say we stand with you always”.

    Of course the thousands who attended his events in Pakistan did not always hear this message of ‘peace and tolerance’. As the evidence of the aftermath of Qadri’s funeral showed, they heard a message of vengeance, blasphemy, medievalism and violence.

    But that is Hassan Haseeb ur Rehman.

    The bigger question is for the UK — and specifically for the Prime Minister, Theresa May.

    In the past year, the UK has banned a fair number of people from entering the country. It has, for example, barred the Canadian activist and blogger Lauren Southern. It has also banned the Austrian activist and ‘identitarian’ Martin Sellner. Whatever anyone’s thoughts on either of these individuals, it is not possible to claim that either has ever addressed a rally of thousands of people which they have used to extol a murderer. If either of them had done so, a ban from the UK might be explicable. Yet Hassan Haseeb ur Rehman has done these things — and yet has been allowed into the UK three years in a row. Even in the year after Theresa May pretended that ‘enough is enough.’

    Perhaps the British government thinks that people do not notice such things. Perhaps the organisers of the ‘counter-terrorism conference’ in Manchester think that people are taken in by such pretences. Perhaps they think that the people of Britain do not mind. But the people of Britain do notice and I rather suspect that they do mind. Very much, in fact.

  • Did DARPA Just Develop Autonomous Drones To Hunt Humans?

    The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) latest creation of the Fast Lightweight Autonomy (FLA) program, a new class of algorithms for quick drone navigation in cluttered environments, reminds us of the 2013 American post-apocalyptic science fiction film, Oblivion.

    Here is a short clip of Jack Harper (Tom Cruise) in the movie, battling against killer drones that use artificial intelligence to navigate and hunt ‘alien scavengers’, and moments before this scene, it was revealed to Harper that alien scavengers were actually humans.

    While DARPA’s FLA program has yet to mount a directed energy weapon with enough kilowatts to blast a human into smithereens, it seems like the agency responsible for emerging technologies for use by the military has entered into Phase two flight tests — demonstrating advanced algorithms in drones could autonomously perform tasks dangerous for humans — such as pre-mission reconnaissance on the modern battlefield in a hostile urban setting.

    So, yes, this confirms DARPA is developing human-hunting drones, however, it is more on a reconnaissance basis, rather than human-killing drones in Oblivion.

    According to the DARPA press release, Phase one flight tests were completed in 2017, as engineers were able to refine their software and improve sensors on the drones to increase efficiency. Experiments were conducted in a controlled environment at the Guardian Centers training facility in Perry, Georgia, and aerial tests showed the quadcopters were able to navigate in urban settings as well as indoors autonomously. Some of the autonomous flight scenarios included:

    • Flying at increased speeds between multi-story buildings and through tight alleyways while identifying objects of interest;

    • Flying through a narrow window into a building and down a hallway searching rooms and creating a 3-D map of the interior; and

    • Identifying and flying down a flight of stairs and exiting the building through an open doorway.

    “The outstanding university and industry research teams working on FLA honed algorithms that in the not too distant future could transform lightweight, commercial-off-the-shelf air or ground unmanned vehicles into capable operational systems requiring no human input once you’ve provided a general heading, distance to travel, and specific items to search,” said J.C. Ledé, DARPA program manager.

    “Unmanned systems equipped with FLA algorithms need no remote pilot, no GPS guidance, no communications link, and no pre-programmed map of the area – the onboard software, lightweight processor, and low-cost sensors do all the work autonomously in real-time.”

    “FLA’s algorithms could lead to effective human-machine teams on the battlefield, where a small air or ground vehicle might serve as a scout autonomously searching unknown environments and bringing back useful reconnaissance information to a human team member. Without needing communications links to the launch vehicle, the chances of an adversary detecting troop presence based on radio transmissions is reduced, which adds further security and safety,” Ledé said.

    He pointed out the technology could be useful in a search-and-rescue scenario, where FLA-equipped drones could scan in radio silence behind enemy lines for a downed pilot, crew members, and even lost soldiers.

    During Phase two, a team of engineers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Draper Laboratory streamlined the number of onboard sensors to lighten the drone for higher speed.

    “This is the lightweight autonomy program, so we’re trying to make the sensor payload as light as possible,” said Nick Roy, co-leader of the MIT/Draper team. “In Phase 1 we had a variety of different sensors on the platform to tell us about the environment. In Phase 2 we really doubled down trying to do as much as possible with a single camera.”

    DARPA asked the team of engineers to include software that builds a geographically accurate map of the surrounding area as the drone flies. Using advanced software, the drone recognized roads, buildings, cars, and other objects and identified them as such on the map, providing clickable images as well. After the mission, the drone returned to home base and allowed the human team members to download the media content.

    “As the vehicle uses its sensors to quickly explore and navigate obstacles in unknown environments, it is continually creating a map as it explores and remembers any place it has already been so it can return to the starting point by itself,” said Jon How, the other MIT/Draper team co-leader.

    DARPA asked a separate team of engineers from the University of Pennsylvania to reduce the drone’s size and weight for autonomous flight indoors. UPenn’s quadcopter ” took off outside, identified and flew through a second-story window opening with just inches of width clearance, flew down a hallway looking for open rooms to search, found a stairwell, and descended to the ground floor before exiting back outside through an open doorway,” said the press release.

    The drone’s reduced weight and size brought new challenges for engineers since the sensors and computers used in Phase one were too large for the smaller vehicle.

    “We ended up developing a new integrated single-board computer that houses all of our sensors as well as our computational platform,” said Camillo J. Taylor, the UPenn team lead. “In Phase 2 we flew a vehicle that’s about half the size of the previous one, and we reduced the weight by more than half. We were able to use a commercially available processor that requires very little power for the entirety of our computational load.”

    An important feature of the UPenn drone is its ability to create a detailed 3-D map of unknown indoor areas, avoid obstacles and have the ability to enter and exit buildings, while hunting for humans.

    “That’s very important in indoor environments,” Taylor said. “Because you need to actually not just reason about a slice of the world, you need to reason about what’s above you, what’s below you. You might need to fly around a table or a chair, so we’re forced to build a complete three-dimensional representation.”

    The next step, according to Taylor, is for the FLA program to be transferred to the Army Research Laboratory at the Adelphi Laboratory Center in Adelphi, Maryland for further development for potential military applications.

    …And if these advancements are not mind-boggling enough, it is only a matter of time before the FLA program could be integrated into drones capable of autonomously hunting America’s enemies in the homeland or in some hybrid war overseas, sort of like in the movie Oblivion.

  • How Democracies Turn Tyrannical

    Authored by Richard Ebeling via The Foundation for Economic Education,

    For most of the last three centuries, the ideas of liberty and democracy have been intertwined in the minds of both friends and foes of a free society. The substitution of absolute monarchies with governments representative of the voting choices of a nation’s population has been considered part and parcel with the advancement of freedom of speech and the press, the right of voluntary and peaceful association for political and numerous social, economic and cultural reasons, and the guarding of the individual from arbitrary and unrestrained power. But what happens when an appeal to democracy becomes a smokescreen for majoritarian tyranny and coalition politicking by special interest groups pursuing privilege and plunder?

    Friends of freedom, including many of those who strongly believed in and fought for representative and democratically elected government in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, often expressed fearful concerns that “democracy” could itself become a threat to the liberty of many of the very people that democratic government was supposed to protect.

    In his famous essay “On Liberty” (1859), the British social philosopher John Stuart Mill warned that tyranny could take three forms: the tyranny of the minority, the tyranny of the majority, and the tyranny of custom and tradition. The tyranny of the minority was represented by absolute monarchy (a tyranny of the one) or an oligarchy (a tyranny of the few). The tyranny of custom and tradition could take the form of social and psychological pressures on individuals or small groups of individuals to conform to the prejudices and narrow-mindedness of wider communities who intimidate and stifle individual thought, creativity, or (peaceful) behavioral eccentricity.

    Mill also was insistent that while democracy historically was part of the great movement for human liberty, majorities potentially could be as dictatorial and dangerous as the most ruthless and oppressive kings and princes of the past. At moments of great collective passions and prejudices, individual freedoms of speech, the press, religion, of association, and of private property could be voted away, reducing the isolated person to the coerced pawn and prisoner of the political system due to sheer numbers in an electoral process. (See my articles, “John Stuart Mill and the Three Dangers to Liberty” and “John Stuart Mill and the Dangers of Unrestrained Government”.)

    Constitutions limit what majorities can do through their elected representatives.

    For this reason, many of the great social philosophers and reformers of the 1700s and 1800s were often strongly insistent that because of democracy’s double-edged sword of liberty or tyranny, it was necessary to restrain the powers and reach of governments through written and unwritten constitutions that limited what majorities could do through their elected representatives. Hence, the role and importance, in the American case, of the Bill of Rights, the first ten amendments to the U.S. Constitution. 

    The First Amendment states clearly and categorically, “Congress shall make no law” that might abridge some of an individual’s freedoms, including speech, the press, religion, peaceful assembly, and submission of grievances against the actions of government. Indeed, every one of those first ten amendments was designed to place some restriction on the use of political power to infringe upon or deny different aspects of an individual’s rights to his life, liberty, and honestly acquired property.

    Ambiguities of language, nuances of interpretation, and changing attitudes have often resulted in debates and disagreements as to what and how such personal freedoms were to be understood and secured. But the underlying meaning and message should be considered beyond any doubt: there are aspects to the life and rights of the individual human being that government, even majoritarian government, should not and could not abridge, violate, or deny.

    Both monarchs of the past and dictators more in the present have denied such limits on their power to command and coerce those under their control, including prohibiting words and deeds by those over whom they have asserted their rule. They have rationalized their claim to unrestrained authority by appeal to a “divine right of kings” or a higher meaning of “freedom” that expresses the “will of the people” as a whole through the tyrant’s supreme power.

    One of the great linguistic tricks of the communists and many of the socialists of the twentieth century was to try to distinguish between false, or “bourgeois” freedoms in contrast to real, or “social,” freedoms. The former were those individual freedoms expressed in the Bill of Rights, which were labeled “negative” freedoms in that they “merely” protected a person against the aggression and coercion of others. “Positive,” or “social” freedoms required government planning, regulation, and redistributive control to assure that “need” rather than “profit” guided production and that the shares of income and wealth among the members of society were more equalized according to a prior notion of “distributive justice.”

    Individual freedom only requires that each person respect the life, liberty and honestly acquired property of others and that he follows the rule of peaceful and voluntary association in all human interactions.

    Individual freedom only requires that each person respect the life, liberty and honestly acquired property of others and that he follows the rule of peaceful and voluntary association in all human interactions. Beyond this “negative” restraint on each of us, we are all at liberty to live our individual lives as we choose, guided by our own personal conceptions of value, meaning, and purpose in ordering and following our private affairs and dealings with others.

    The notion of “positive” or “social” freedom requires the active and constant intervention of the political authority into the individual and voluntary interpersonal affairs of a country’s citizens precisely to command or prohibit how, when, where, and for what people may act and interact with others so as to direct and dictate certain results that those in government consider “good,” “just,” and “fair.” The individual and his actions are made subservient to and confined within the collective or community or national “interests” of the society as a whole as defined and enforced by the government.

    In our day and age, one of the political tricks played by the “social justice” proponents and the redistributive advocates is to insist that what they call for and demand in terms of government economic and social policy is really the “democratic” will of the majority, and any opposition or resistance to it is a demonstration of that person being an opponent of “democracy,” therefore, an enemy of freedom and the free society.

    An example of this is a recent article, “American Democracy on the Brink,” by noted economist and Nobel Prize winner Joseph E. Stiglitz, a professor of economics at Columbia University in New York. According to Stiglitz, a series of recent Supreme Court decisions demonstrate that “democracy” is in peril in America.

    He repeats the now thread-worn charge that we do not live in a democracy today because the current occupant of the White House won three million fewer votes than his opponent in the 2016 presidential election. That Donald Trump won the election according to the presidential electoral rules specified in the U.S. Constitution in terms of winning an Electoral College majority is shoved aside and made into an implicit accusation that the Constitution itself is a rigged anti-democratic institution. One wonders, however, whether Joseph Stiglitz would be wearing sackcloth and ashes with his head bowed low if the 2016 outcome had put Hillary Clinton in the White House with an Electoral College majority but with Trump having won a majority of the popular vote. Somehow I doubt it.

    Stiglitz’s first charge against “undemocratic” capitalism is the recent Supreme Court decision in favor of American Express concerning the company’s requirement that retail and other stores where customers purchase goods with the use of credit cards not offer special discounts to buyers to use cards with lower transaction fees than their own. Stiglitz sees this court decision as corporate anti-competitiveness at the expense of the retailer and the consumer—the few exploiting the many.

    But as the high court reasoned, not all credit cards are equal, and therefore, it does not imply or require all companies issuing credit cards to charge the same transaction fees to stores. The bulk of American Express’ business involves “non-revolving” credit, that is, the large majority of American Express cardholders pay the full balance owed each month. Thus, American Express does not earn extended interest income from most of its customers through installment payments.

    American Express customers who hold different types of the company’s cards with differing levels of services, perks, and discounts, tend to be, on average, in higher income brackets and spend more on various goods and services on, say, an annual basis. Thus, those shoppers paying with their American Express cards are likely to spend more, and on more expensive goods, thus more than making up the higher transaction fees American Express charges retailers. Furthermore, the attractiveness of many of American Express’ cardholder perks has competitively worked to prod other credit card companies into introducing their own versions of “points” for dollars spent, “cash back” incentives, and various other consumer services.

    Implicitly, Stiglitz seems to have in the back of his mind the artificial economics textbook notion of “perfect competition,” one of the unrealistic and arbitrary assumptions of which is that each seller in a market sells a product interchangeably exactly like his rivals in that market—and that to differentiate your product from those of your competitors is, somehow, acting “anti-competitively.” Yet the very notion of “competition” understood as a rivalrous process is to constantly attempt to improve and distinguish your product from others. This includes offering what consumers may consider a better product that might sell for more than its competitors’ precisely because it’s not viewed as the same as theirs. (See my article, “Capitalism and the Misunderstanding of Monopoly.”)

    Finally, no retailer is compelled to accept the American Express card as a form of payment in their place of business. And, indeed, some stores only take Visa or MasterCard precisely to avoid the higher transaction fees from American Express.

    Stiglitz’s second criticism falls upon another recent Supreme Court decision that state and municipal employees will no longer be compelled to pay mandatory dues to public employee and teachers’ unions when they might not want union representation or oppose the political uses to which those funds are applied for political lobbying and campaigning. He raises a number of criticisms against the Court’s decision, including that “selfish” workers will choose to not pay dues and be “free riders” on the efforts of employee unions that improve the pay and work conditions of all in government jobs. He also charges that to deny unions the “right” to demand dues payments, whether individual public employees want union representation and political activism or not, is supposedly “undemocratic.”

    In the tradition of George Orwell’s “newspeak,” Stiglitz twists the meaning of words to assert that union compulsion is freedom and that individual freedom of choice is employer exploitation. For a good part of the last one hundred years, labor unions, especially beginning in the 1930s, were given a relatively free hand to force workers into union membership to have access to certain types of employment and to restrict the number of people who could look for and find gainful employment in various sectors of the economy.

    In their heyday in the middle decades of the twentieth century, labor unions could shut down entire industries through strikes, threaten or use violence to prevent non-union workers from taking jobs their members had walked away from, and use their financial clout to influence labor legislation.

    Their political and financial power is heavily dependent on their ability to compel mandatory dues from public employees.

    Compulsory unionism has been a tyranny of a minority of workers manipulating wages and work accessibility at the expense of the majority of the labor force as a whole. Changing market dynamics have reduced union membership in the private sector from more than 20 percent of the labor force in 1983 to less than 7 percent as of 2017. On the other hand, today union membership in the government sector is more than 35 percent. Their political and financial power is heavily dependent on their ability to compel mandatory dues from public employees, many of whom are denied the freedom to express whether they, in fact, want to pay dues and have union representation.

    What is more “democratic” than to allow individual workers to “vote” with the choice to freely belong to a union or not and to pay dues or not? The “free rider” problem is a bugaboo that some economists and public policy advocates have long used to justify various forms of compulsory payment of fees and dues.

    There is nothing preventing unions, including in the government sector, from excluding “free riders” by negotiating wage and benefits that apply only to their members and not to others who have chosen to opt out of that union. Indeed, by following this type of path, it would soon be seen if non-union workers decide that the benefits from joining such unions are worth the financial expense of the dues to be paid out of their salaries.

    Instead, Stiglitz, looking down on the labor affairs of ordinary workers from the Olympian perch of his academic heights, knows the “real” democratic choice that serves the “true” interests of workers better and more clearly than those public employees themselves. He may refer to a supposed “imbalance” between employers and individual workers that unions are to set right, but rather than allowing those individuals to decide whether they think they need and are willing to pay for union representation against “the bosses,” he wants to force it upon them. (See my article, “The Economic Case for Right-to-Work.”)

    Concerning one other legal case, Stiglitz rails against a court decision that decided in favor of licensed reproductive health centers not being forced to supply patients with information about abortion options from which they might choose. He is indignant that the court did not impose compulsory speech on people. That is, that individuals and the organizations for which they work should not be forced to articulate ideas and alternatives with which they may strongly disagree.

    The abortion issue has been and remains one of the most emotional and deeply contentious “hot buttons” in the public arena. Do you believe in “a woman’s right to choose” or do you believe in the “right to life”? It touches religious faith, the meaning of personhood and ownership of one’s own body, and the definition of the beginning of human life. Any wide social agreement about abortion lies far ahead on the horizon, if ever, given the scientific, faith-based, and personal divisions of opinion and beliefs.

    To force anyone to express and explain the “other side” of this debate in terms of what a woman might or should do can only be considered an infringement on the freedom of conscience of the individual.

    To force anyone to express and explain the “other side” of this debate in terms of what a woman might or should do can only be considered an infringement on the freedom of conscience of the individual. Would Stiglitz also demand–in the spirit of “democracy”—that clinics that offer abortion services be compelled to provide literature and lecturing to their patients on how abortion is “murder” and is a mortal sin that will send that woman to hell and into the arms of the devil for eternity? And to do it with serious conviction so as not to unfairly bias a woman’s decision? I doubt if Stiglitz considers applying the logic of his argument in a symmetrical fashion.

    This issue, like the others, has little or nothing to do with “democratic freedom” as conveyed by Stiglitz in his article. Indeed, the emotional appeal to the “democratic” idea and sentiment is all a linguistic sleight-of-hand to direct attention away from the real issue: shall the individual have his or her freedom of choice undermined or denied in the marketplace or the mind by the assertion of the “majority will”?

    Whether this “majority “ is real or merely a smokescreen for a minority to use the democratic appeal to impose their demands on many others, it stands as a denial and a threat to the peaceful choices and interactions of free individuals in society. It is a use of “democracy” as the latest weapon against human liberty.

  • Bin Laden's Son Marries Lead 9/11 Hijacker's Daughter, Says Family

    The son of the late al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden has married the daughter of the lead hijacker in the September 11th terror attacks, Mohammed Atta, according to a recent interview the family gave to The Guardian

    The union was confirmed by Osama bin Laden’s half-brothers during an interview with The Guardian. Ahmad and Hassan al-Attas said they believed Hamza had taken a senior position within al-Qaeda and was aiming to avenge the death of his father, shot dead during a US military raid in Pakistan seven years ago.

    Hamza bin Laden is the son of one of Osama bin Laden’s three surviving wives, Khairiah Sabar, who was living with her husband in a compound in Abbottabad, near a large Pakistani military base, when he was killed. He has since made public statements urging followers to wage war on Washington, London, Paris and Tel Aviv and is seen as a deputy to the terrorist group’s current leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. –The Guardian

    Hamza bin Laden. Photograph: AP

    “We have heard he has married the daughter of Mohammed Atta,” said Ahmad al-Attas. “We’re not sure where he is, but it could be Afghanistan.”

    “When we thought everyone was over this, next thing I knew was Hamza saying I am going to avenge my father,” said his brother, Hassan al-Attas. “I don’t want to go through that again.

    Ahmad al-Attas, brother of Osama bin Laden. Photograph: David Levene for the Guardian

    Western intelligence agencies have been trying to track Hamza bin Laden’s whereabouts for the past two years, according to The Guardian, as he is suspected to have become a “central hub of al-Qaida” as the organization itself “continues to be organised around Osama bin Laden’s legacy,” and may become galvanized around Hamza. 

    Another son of Osama bin Laden, Khalid, was killed in a US raid in Abbottabad, while a third, Saad, was killed in a 2009 drone strike in Afghanistan. Letter seized from bin Laden’s compound suggest Hamza had been chosen as his father’s successor. 

    Bin Laden’s wives and surviving children have returned to Saudi Arabia, where they were given refuge by the former crown prince Mohammed bin Nayef. The women and children remain in close contact with Bin Laden’s mother, Alia Ghanem, who told the Guardian in an interview that she remained in regular touch with surviving family members. –The Guardian

    Alia Ghanem at home in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with a picture of her son Osama bin Laden. Photograph: David Levene for the Guardian

     

  • The Truth Is Always In The Middle, But America Has No Middle Left

    Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

    Incidents and Accidents, Hints and Allegations

    Jeremy Corbyn is an anti-semite. Julian Assange is a rapist, a Russian agent and a terrorist. Donald Trump is an anti-semite, a rapist AND a Russian agent. Vladimir Putin wants to invade and enslave the entire western world and to that end employs Assange, Trump, maybe also Corbyn(?), as well as thousands upon thousands of hackers and murderers who make people vote for whoever Putin chooses, and poison former Russian agents on western soil.

    These allegations, and there’s many more of them, have a number of things in common. Most importantly, they serve to change your mind. They serve to change your perception of reality. They seek to whip up your support for the very people and forces that launch them into the media.

    Something else they have in common is that none of them has ever been proven, even though some of them are getting on in years. But they were never meant to be proven, simply because they don’t have to be. If your mind is a fertile breeding ground for such allegations, all that needs to be done is plant a seed, and plant another, and then water them day after day by repeating the allegations and make them ‘yummier’, until they sprout a plant or a tree ‘spontaneously’.

    A third feature the allegations have in common is that as they change your perception of reality, you will be -more- inclined to support those who invented them for that exact purpose, so you will not oppose their -further- grab for power and wealth.

    That Jeremy Corbyn would hate Jews goes against the man’s entire life history. But he’s been exceedingly weak in defending himself, and his Labour Party, against the accusations of anti-semitism, so the label sticks and has been very successful. Instead of explaining his position in the face of the unfolding and increasingly disastrous Brexit proceedings, all Corbyn gets to do is utter some feeble defence about his history with Jewish people. On Brexit, he’s been all but silenced. Even his own party merrily goes along with the smear.

    The accusations concerning Assange in the Swedish rape ‘case’ are, if possible, even more preposterous, even if they have also ostensibly been even more successful. The Swedes, British and Americans involved in the narrative knew beforehand that all they needed was to plant a fragile seed. Julian had historically enjoyed a lot of support from women, and that was over in a heartbeat.

    Sweden’s female(!) prosecutor, Marianne Ny, refused for 4 years to talk to Assange one on one and when she finally did, dropped the case right after. But that’s 4 years of allegations hanging over him, easily enough to serve the purpose of those allegations: plant a seed of doubt. By then, another -hollow- tree had sprouted: Assange was accused of working directly with the Kremlin.

    He always denied this, but after negotiations with the US Justice Department in early 2017 were abruptly halted by then FBI-head James Comey and US Senator Mark Warner (D.-VA) as Assange offered to prove that it wasn’t Russians who provided him with files from the DNC server(s), Robert Mueller felt free to accuse him of working with Russia once again in his indictment of 12 Russians last month. Not only could Assange not defend himself by then, since he had been totally silenced, but Mueller didn’t even attempt to provide evidence.

    And I’ve said this numerous times before, but I still think it bears repeating: WikiLeaks is based on one underlying principle above and beyond anything else: trust; which means uncompromising honesty. WIthout that, no-one would ever again offer them any files. WikiLeaks doesn’t reveal sources, and it doesn’t redact things out of files other than to protect people’s lives.

    In that sense it’s interesting that even with the Vault7 CIA files, after Comey had betrayed Assange, the latter still held back from publishing certain pages, just so CIA operatives wouldn’t be exposed. If Assange is caught in just one lie, be it about rape or about Russia, WikiLeaks is done, and so is he and his life’s work. So what do you do about someone who doesn’t lie? You spread lies about him.

    But, again, that’s not what people see, because that’s not what their media report. Papers like the New York Times and the Guardian, who were more than happy to share, and profit from, WikiLeaks files before, have turned on Assange with a vengeance. Journalists are more than willing to throw a fellow journalist under the bus and then turn around and accuse Donald Trump of endangering journalists when he says they spread fake news. Well, they do, that’s what Assange’s case proves without a doubt.

    That brings us to Trump, a ‘case’ that has much in common with Assange -even if the men themselves don’t-, but is also very different. Trump doesn’t seem to shy away from the odd white lie or embellishment. And sure, that may be putting it mildly. But both journalists and their viewers and readers need to keep one thing in mind: their work does not consist of spouting allegations. They need to provide proof.

    And in the 18 -or 24- months since Trump prominently rose upon the Washington scene, precious little has been proven. Robert Mueller has alleged plenty, but proven next to nothing. It’s fair to say after all that time that he’s fishing. Sure, Paul Manafort will likely go to jail, but his case has nothing to do with Russia collusion, at least not in any way that Mueller has evidence for (we would have known if he did).

    And you know, if you spend so much time, and resources, trying to find something, trying to find proof, and you have failed to find it, you have to acknowledge just that. Maybe not halt the investigation entirely, but go public and state that you haven’t been able to find what you thought you would or could. The country deserves that, The American people deserve it, and yes, Donald Trump does, too.

    But the whole country now lives on a narrative. Media left and right profit from it, each to feed their audience the ‘latest’ 24/7. And there’s nothing really, so they have to make it up in order to continue profiting from the whipped-up attention. One side tells you how evil Trump is, the other how great he’s doing. The truth is always in the middle, but America has no middle left.

    I said before that Donald Trump is portrayed as an anti-semite, a rapist AND a Russian agent. As for the first bit, I covered that a few days ago in “Globalist”. Does Trump hate Jews? Even if he does, he hides it pretty well. He’s always done business with Jewish people (hey, this is New York!), there are plenty Jews in his government, and in his own family. Calling someone an anti-Semite is a very serious thing, not a detail to be thrown around at will. Prove it or hold your tongue.

    Is Trump a rapist, like what Assange is accused of? You can certainly find no shortage of people willing to state that in both cases. But again, no evidence. And with the fame and glory awaiting anyone who does prove it in either case, you would think by now someone would have found something. Again, prove it or hold your tongue.

    Thirdly: is Trump a Russian agent? Look, if Robert Mueller hasn’t been able to prove that he is after two years and tens of millions spent, at least get off your high horse and focus on something else for a bit, if you want to be taken serious as a journalist. Russia, and Putin, are America’s favorite bogeyman today, and about the only thing that still unites the country.

    So find something instead that unites you that is not your enemy. Find common cause. Find what makes you proud to be America. Are you all going to be proud if Assange is dragged into some place like Gitmo? Then you have completely lost what it is that should make you proud citizens of the land of the free and the home of the brave.

    Because no matter how you may twist it, Julian Assange is braver than any of you, and braver than all of you put together too. But no, he’s not free. He gave up his freedom so you would know what it means to be free. Free from manipulation, free from people making up your minds for you, free from indoctrination, free from the forces that take more of your freedom away every day.

    You see, Julian Assange is not free. But neither are you. He’s a prisoner of the very people who are taking your freedom away, day by day, step by step. That’s why you should stand up for him. And of course, it’s not just your freedom that’s at stake, it’s your humanity, it’s the very essence of what makes you human, the difference between a life worth living and a life wasted by complacency and cowardice.

    Anything else is just narrative. It’s not life.

  • Iran Protest Deaths Reported Ahead Of Monday's Renewed Sanctions

    As we predicted last week, protests have continued across multiple Iranian cities through the weekend fueled by general dissatisfaction over a collapsing economy, runaway inflation, and a sharp hike in prices on imported products, all of which has made life miserable for many Iranian citizens.

    However, it is unclear the extent and frequency of the protests as multiple international reports have called the protests, now in their sixth day, “scattered” and sporadic.

    With pressures continuing to mount ahead of renewed US sanctions set to snap back into place on Monday  the first wave of which will primarily target automobiles, currency, and gold — there are new unconfirmed reports of deaths after protesters clashed with police

    A cleric speaks to a crowd of protesters demonstrating in Mashhad, in the Khorasan Razavi province, on August 3rd. Via Nasim News Agency

    Demonstrations involving hundreds in each location were reported over the weekend in the nation’s capital, Tehran, and in the cities of Karaj, Shiraz, Mashhad, Isfahan, and Qom — the latter city especially notable given it’s considered by Shia Islam to be the holiest city in Iran. 

    US state-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that a man was shot and killed on Saturday during a protest in Karaj, west of Tehran, citing Iran’s semi-official Fars. Details remain sparse, but the man was reportedly fired at by an unidentifiable assailant in a passing car. The same report included mention of about 20 protesters in Karaj detained by security forces. 

    And on Sunday unverified reports on social media, mostly from opposition activist accounts, say heavy clashes continuing in the cities of Karaj and Qom have resulted in multiple deaths

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    However, there are conflicting accounts regarding the actual intensity and momentum of the protests, with activist along with a number of MEK-linked accounts (the controversial Iranian opposition group in exile, “Mujahideen e Khalq”) claiming that deliberate power outages and state blockage of the internet have prevented more footage and images depicting oppression from riot police and security services from reaching the outside world. 

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    US funded and state-run broadcasters like VOA News and Radio Free Europe have also featured regular reporting of the protests over the past week, especially through Farsi language sources. 

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    On Monday, the following sanctions will be re-imposed according to a US Treasury Department official statement:

    “Sanctions on the purchase or acquisition of US dollar bank notes by the Government of Iran; sanctions on Iran’s trade in gold or precious metals; sanctions on the direct or indirect sale, supply, or transfer to or from Iran of graphite, raw, or semi-finished metals such as aluminum and steel, coal, and software for integrating industrial processes; sanctions on significant transactions related to the purchase or sale of Iranian rials, or the maintenance of significant funds or accounts outside the territory of Iran denominated in the Iranian rial; sanctions on the purchase, subscription to, or facilitation of the issuance of Iranian sovereign debt; sanctions on Iran’s automotive sector.” 

    Furthermore, according to the US Treasury, this includes a ban on Iranian-origin carpets and foodstuffs, and notably (and dangerous for civilian air safety) export or re-export commercial airplanes as well as services and parts.

    Likely, with the economic noose about to tighten even further on Monday, we could be witnessing just the beginning of more sustained unrest to come as external pressures make the Iranian economy implode. 

    And meanwhile at the White House…

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  • Pro-ISIS Media Outlet Signals Imminent Biological Attack On The West

    Authored by Pamela Geller via GellerReport.com,

    This too will be ignored by the complicit, sharia-compliant Western press. A biological attack is the intentional release of a pathogen (disease causing agent) or biotoxin (poisonous substance produced by a living organism) against humans, plants, or animals. An attack against people could be used to cause illness, death, fear, societal disruption, and economic damage.

    EXCLUSIVE: Pro-ISIS Media Outlet Publishes Posters Calling For Biological Attacks In The West, One Of Which Depicts San Francisco

    Over the past week, a pro-Islamic State (ISIS) media group has published a series of posters encouraging biological attacks on Western targets.

    Excerpt from the transcript (MEMRI):

    PRO-ISIS MEDIA OUTLET CIRCULATES VIDEO CALLING FOR BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS IN THE WEST

    This transcript was prepared from the original English subtitles of the video

    Narrator: “While the world is watching silently! The European governments are developing satanic chemical attack systems to be brutally tested on the cities and peoples, which refused humiliation and humiliation so the Muslim countries in Africa and Khorsan turned into testing fields of phosphorus bombs and toxic gas. The crusader alliance continues bombing Mosul, Raqqa, Al-Anbar and others… with various types of chemical bombs and incendiary gases. And similar to the enemies of God! We invite you, oh Muwahid [monotheist] who lives between the Mushrikeen [idolaters] that you clean the dust of humiliation and to renew the fatal nightmare in the land of the devil worshipers with a silent destructive weapon. It can not be detected or tracked it can not be escaped or avoided with simple equipment, extract the most harmful viruses and infection bacteria then release them safely by following these simple steps: First, try to find the most severe epidemics to treat.”

    On Screen: “Hantavirus, derived from the feces and droppings of rats that carry the plague of the most serious plague at the moment. The Cholera virus is extracted from the patient’s waste. Typhoid bacteria, found in human and animal wastes in general and frequent in the dirty areas.”

    Narrator: “Second, spread the bacteria extracted by type as follows.”

    On Screen: “Sprinkle the liquid substances or the basics of bacteria with drinking water to take effect automatically. Sprinkle the crushed material on exposed fruit and public foods or scatter them in the air in crowded places – with caution.”

    Narrator: “Third, try to be safe and avoid any danger that may affect you during the preparation of harmful substances.”

    On Screen: “Work in a room with natural and industrial ventilation. Wear gloves and blouses during work. Put the goggles and goggles – according to chemical process requirements. Do not touch or inhale the materials. Isolating the workplace from the rest of the house. Wash your hands with sterile soap and water after each test.”

    Off-Screen Voice: “To our brothers in Aqidah [creed] and Iman [faith] in Europe, America, Russia, Australia, and elsewhere, your brothers in your lands have absolved themselves of blame so leap onto their tracks and take an example from their actions and know that Jannah [paradise] is beneath the shadows of swords.”

  • Secret Service Slams "Irresponsible And Inaccurate" Guardian Report On Russian Spy In Moscow Embassy

    The US Secret Service has refuted what they claim is an “irresponsible and inaccurate” Thursday report by The Guardian, in which the UK paper claims that a suspected Russian spy had been working “undetected in the heart of the American embassy in Moscow for more than a decade.” 

    According to the Secret Service, they provided The Guaridain with “background information clearly refuting unfounded information.” 

    The Guardian report reads in part: 

    US counter-intelligence investigators discovered a suspected Russian spy had been working undetected in the heart of the American embassy in Moscow for more than a decade, the Guardian has learned.

    The Russian national had been hired by the US Secret Service and is understood to have had access to the agency’s intranet and email systems, which gave her a potential window into highly confidential material including the schedules of the president and vice-president.

    The woman had been working for the Secret Service for years before she came under suspicion in 2016 during a routine security sweep conducted by two investigators from the US Department of State’s Regional Security Office (RSO). –The Guardian

    The paper then claims that the woman was having “regular and unauthorized meetings” with members of Russia’s top security agency, the FSB, and that the RSO sounded the alarm in January, 2017 – which the Secret Service reportedly ignored until letting her go several months later, “possibly to contain any potential embarassment.” 

    According to the Guardian, her firing was purposefully concealed by US officials amid the mass removeal of 750 US personnel from its embassy staff of 1,200.  

    The Secret Service is trying to hide the breach by firing [her],” the source said. “The damage was already done but the senior management of the Secret Service did not conduct any internal investigation to assess the damage and to see if [she] recruited any other employees to provide her with more information. –The Guardian

    The Secret Service hit back shortly after publication, writing in a statement: 

    On Thursday, August 2, 2018, The Guardian published an article by Nick Hopkins entitled, Exclusive: suspected Russian spy found working at US embassy in Moscow. The article is wrought with irresponsible and inaccurate reporting based on the claims of “anonymous” sources. Prior to the Guardian publishing their article, the U.S. Secret Service provided their editor with our official statement as well as background information clearly refuting unfounded information. 

    The agency goes on to note that it was the woman’s duty to interface with the Russian government, “including the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), the Russian Ministry of the Interior (MVD), and the Russian Federal Protective Service (FPS) in furtherance of Secret Service interests. 

    The Secret Service then cites a factual error based on US protocols: 

    In the article, Hopkins and The Guardian claim the “Russian is understood to have had full access to secret data during decade at embassy.” FSNs working under the direction of the U.S. Secret Service have never been provided or placed in a position to obtain, secret or classified information as erroneously reported. -US Secret Service

    The agency also asserts that the Guardian‘s claim that they “failed to act on information provided by the U.S. State Department is categorically false,” along with the timing of the woman’s termination aren’t true. 

    The U.S. Secret Service Moscow Resident Office closed in August of 2017 due to lack of cooperation from the Russian government – entirely unrelated to the termination of the FSN in question. Reports the Secret Service attempted to minimize or deliberately not disclose the U.S. State Department’s findings are categorically false. -US Secret Service

    Lastly, the Secret Service said that any questions of a potential security “breach” of U.S. Secret Service systems, information or reporting ” is unfounded as FSNs work on, and support, only projects with the intent of providing and/or sharing the information with the Russian government in furtherance of Secret Service and USG interests.”

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Today’s News 5th August 2018

  • Here's Why 3D-Printing Guns Are A Win For World Peace And A Potential Death Blow To Tyranny

    Authored by Matt Agorist via ActivistPost.com,

    As the debate continues about whether or not 3D-printed firearm plans should be banned, even the ostensible pro-2nd Amendment folks are worried that shooting rampages will occur as a result of these plans being published online. But the reality is far different.

    For generations, advocates of private gun ownership have been fighting exhaustively through political channels to protect their right to keep and bear arms. Gun owners even have one of the strongest lobby groups in Washington, the highly disappointing NRA. Yet over the years, gun rights continue to diminish in America, despite the constant political campaigns by the NRA and politicians that claim to support gun rights.

    However, in the past few years, one guy with a good idea has managed to do more to protect gun rights than the NRA has in decades of political involvement. Cody Wilson is the founder of “Defense Distributed” and the “Wikiweapon” project, which allows anyone with a 3D printer to create their own untraceable gun in the privacy of their own home.

    While alarmists claim that 3D-printed guns will be the end of humanity, the fact is that these plans have been online on torrent and dark web sites for years and we’ve yet to see a single person killed with one.

    What’s more, as the gruesome murder-suicide on a college campus in Walnut Creek, California illustrates is that people don’t even need these plans if they want to make their own untraceable gun. Scott Bertics built the gun he used to shoot himself and Clare Orton without anyone knowing and entirely through legal measures.

    Psychopaths who want to cause harm to others will cause harm to others using any means necessary. Limiting the ability for law-abiding citizens to protect themselves will never change this.

    Wilson makes no secret that the intention behind distributing CAD files to create homemade guns is to make gun control measures obsolete and bolster the Second Amendment, which is under continual assault from anti-gun activists.

    As Wilson explains, these files could be used to empower oppressed people all over the world who’ve been disarmed and ruled by criminals and warlords.

    We put a lot of world governments on notice, and I think that’s good in the history of the balance of power between sovereigns and subjects,” Wilson told the Brown Political Review.

    From the Armenian Genocide to the Nazi Holocaust to “Black Gun Codes” in America: throughout history, societies who have been disarmed by their governments have given way to massive bloodshed. This is still the case today in countries who’ve turned in their guns.

    Depending on the current government, life in disarmed societies can go on peacefully for a while. However, in some cases, citizens — men women and children — are slaughtered by the millions.

    Even when gun control seems to work in the short term, the scapegoatists are never satisfied. As we are seeing in the United Kingdom, politicians are now going after knives as the “evil weapon” that no law-abiding citizen should ever need.

    For those who don’t recall, the disarming of citizens took place in the US and was used as a means to slaughter blacks and Native Americans.

    Perhaps the first known attempt at disarming citizens in the new world occurred in 1751 when the French Black code was enacted requiring colonists to “stop any blacks, and if necessary, beat any black carrying any potential weapon, such as a cane.”

    This attempt to disarm blacks was repeated under United States’ rule 50 years later when the U.S. purchased the Louisiana territory. According to a paper published in the Kansas Journal of Law & Public Policy:

    When the first U. S. official arrived in New Orleans in 1803 to take charge of this new American possession, the planters sought to have the existing free black militia disarmed, and otherwise exclude “free blacks from positions in which they were required to bear arms,” including such non-military functions as slave-catching crews.

    Upon the defeat of the confederacy in the Civil War, many southern states enacted “Black Codes” that barred the newly freed slaves from exercising their basic civil rights. One such example of these new laws was an act passed in the state of Mississippi that stated:

    no freedman, free negro or mulatto, not in the military service of the United States government, and not licensed so to do by the board of police of his or her county, shall keep or carry fire-arms of any kind, or any ammunition, dirk or bowie knife, and on conviction thereof in the county court shall be punished by fine

    After the passage of these laws, numerous studies concluded that the newly freed slaves had essentially been rendered defenseless against groups like the Ku Klux Klan. Disarming them, essentially made them slaves once again.

    Guns — in the hands of good people — level the playing field against guns in the hands of bad people. It is this simple. Just imagine the power a 3D-printed gun would give a mother in an African village as warlords come through hacking off the limbs of children with machetes. With enough of the villagers having these guns, they could effectively defend themselves against large groups of tyrants even if they had automatic weapons.

    Sadly, the statists only see the potentially negative aspects of these 3D-printed guns.

    “The people who make them will be state actors or well-financed criminal cartels who have the ability to execute well-organized criminal attacks in the United States and elsewhere,” said Avery Gardiner, the co-president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence.

    This protectionist attitude is self-serving and one-sided and ignores the benefits of an armed society as well as history. And, it only serves to further the oppression of those who cannot defend themselves.

    While it would certainly be an amazing thought to be able to live in a world without guns, that is simply not the case. Until it is the case, anyone who wants to defend themselves and their family, should be able to do so in any manner they see fit — as the only other option is tyranny.

    As Wilson notes, “I think the state should be as weak as possible relative to the individual. The proper posture of the state is one that at least is in fear of its citizen, not one that lords over it.”

  • Visualizing Every US Valuation Milestone From 1781: The Road To A Trillion Dollars

    The market has been buzzing about Apple’s $1 trillion market valuation.

    It’s an incredible amount of wealth creation in any context – but, as Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, getting to 12 zeros is especially impressive when you consider that Apple was just 90 days from declaring bankruptcy in 1997.

    Today’s chart shows this milestone – as well as many of the ones before it – through a period of over 200 years of U.S. market history. It was inspired by this interesting post by Global Financial Data, which is worth reading in its own right.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

    MARKET CAP MILESTONES

    Over the last couple of centuries, and with the exception of brief moments in time such as the Japanese stock bubble of 1989, the largest company in the world has almost always been based in the United States.

    Here are the major market cap milestones in the U.S. that preceded Apple’s recent $1 trillion valuation, achieved August 2nd, 2018:

    Bank of North America (1781)
    The first company to hit $1 million in market capitalization. It was the first ever IPO in the United States.

    Bank of the United States (1791)
    The first company to hit $10 million in market capitalization had a 20 year charter to start, and was championed by Alexander Hamilton.

    New York Central Railroad (1878)
    The first company to hit $100 million in market capitalization was a crucial railroad that connected New York City, Chicago, Boston, and St. Louis.

    AT&T (1924)
    The first company to hit $1 billion in market capitalization – this was far before the breakup of AT&T into the “Baby Bells”, which occurred in 1982.

    General Motors (1955)
    The first company to hit $10 billion in market capitalization. The 1950s were the golden years of growth for U.S. auto companies like GM and Ford, taking place well before the mass entry of foreign companies like Toyota into the domestic automobile market.

    General Electric (1995)
    The first company to hit $100 billion in market capitalization was only able to do so 23 years ago.

    THE OTHER TRILLION DOLLAR COMPANY

    Interestingly, Apple is not the first company globally to ever hit $1 trillion in market capitalization.

    The feat was achieved momentarily by PetroChina in 2007, after a successful debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange that same year.

    And as we noted previously, the $800 billion loss it experienced shortly after is also the largest the world has ever seen.

  • "Civil Disturbance" Declared After Portland Riot Cops Use Flash Grenades On Antifa
    Photo: Mike Bivins

    Police in Portland, Oregon declared a civil disturbance on Saturday after counter-protesters from Antifa showed up at a downtown Patriot Prayer rally and threw projectiles at the police, resulting in the deployment of flash grenades. 

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    Another angle:

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    The disturbance comes around a month after “Rose City” Antifa squared off with conservatives in a violent altercation that took place in the middle of Second Avenue.

    Meanwhile, Portland PD announced that they were shutting down the protest near SW Naito Parkway and SW Columbia streets: 

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    Earlier in the day a man “got in a struggle with some black clad dudes over a flag and one of them clubbed him,” according to journalist Mike Bivins, after which the man bled onto the street.

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    Live: 

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  • There Will Be No American-Russian Alliance Against China

    Authored by James George Jatras via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Since 1991 and the formal end of the first Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, the world has experienced an American “unipolar moment” as the bipartisan US policy establishment sought to consolidate and perpetuate its hegemonic control over the entire plant. Doomed to fail even before it received its fullest articulation in 1996 by neoconservative ideologists William Kristol and Robert Kagan (misleadingly billed as “Toward a Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy”), that misbegotten moment thankfully is coming to an end.

    The main question today is whether the grinding to a halt of a quest so foolish and destructive can peacefully devolve into a tripolar entente among the US, Russia, and China – or whether the entrenched Washington establishment will, Sampson-like, crash everything down in a desperate but futile attempt to hang on to its power and privileges. We appear to be approaching the cusp at which that question will be resolved one way or the other. What the Trump Administration does next with respect to Iran will be a key, perhaps decisive, indicator.

    However, of late there has emerged an alternative concept that may be seen as a middle way between America’s stubbornly hanging onto our diminishing hegemony versus working out a new Concert of Powers with the two countries the Trump Administration has dubbed rivals in a new “great power competition.” This concept suggests that the United States should play odd-man-out, teaming up with one of the other two powers against the third. Such a triangulation conceivably could perpetuate and enhance America’s global dominance (it is assumed the other nation would be the junior partner) while limiting the influence of the designated adversary.

    Strangely, given the unhinged  levels of Russia-hatred that define the American political class, no one seems to have proposed trying to flip Beijing away from its quasi-alliance with Moscow in a repeat of President Nixon’s “playing the China card” against the USSR in the early 1970s. Rather, the hot talk is all the other way ‘round, that the US should woo Russia as an ally against China. As presented by Harry J. Kazianis of the Center for the National Interest (“The Coming American-Russian Alliance Against China”):

    ‘[T]here is a very real possibility that Washington and Moscow will collude for a very big reason—and soon.

    ‘Both nations have a reason to fear a coming change in the international order that will impact them both. And as history shows us time and again, a rising power that seeks to overturn the international system can make the most dedicated enemies join forces—and fast.

    ‘I can only be talking about one thing: a growing and more powerful China. [ … ]

    ‘While it might not happen right away, and an armed clash over, say, Ukraine or Syria could delay or even destroy any chance of a geopolitical realignment, there is the very real possibility that the stars could align for Russia and America to take on China in the future. Stranger parings have occurred in the past. While we might rightly see Moscow as a rogue nation today, tomorrow it could be a partner in containing a common foe. History and circumstance still stand for no one.’

    Playing the Russia card against China is even presented by former Indian diplomat M. K. Bhadrakumar as part of a long term strategy (“Trump Has a Grand Strategy, He Wants to Do a ‘Reverse Nixon’ — Partner Russia for an Alliance vs China”) foreseen by the architect of Nixon’s long-ago outreach to communist China, Henry Kissinger (who reportedly is advising Trump to this end):

    ‘As far back as 1972 in a discussion with Richard Nixon on his upcoming trip to China, signifying the historic opening to Beijing, Kissinger could visualize such a rebalancing becoming necessary in future. He expressed the view that compared with the Soviets (Russians), the Chinese were “just as dangerous. In fact, they’re more dangerous over a historical period.” Kissinger added, “in 20 years your (Nixon’s) successor, if he’s as wise as you, will wind up leaning towards the Russians against the Chinese.”

    ‘Kissinger argued that the United States, which sought to profit from the enmity between Moscow and Beijing in the Cold War era, would therefore need “to play this balance-of-power game totally unemotionally. Right now, we need the Chinese to correct the Russians and to discipline the Russians.” But in the future, it would be the other way around.’

    The possibility that Trump or some people in his Administration may be seriously considering the idea can’t be dismissed. It should be noted that among the few sane voices about Russia in US public life, such as Fox News’ Laura Ingraham (Trump “wants to triangulate China, Russia, does he not?”) and Tucker Carlson, it is axiomatic that “China is the real threat, not Russia.”

    However, whether or not the US is open to teaming up with Russia against China doesn’t address the question of whether such a ploy would be objectively viable. There are three strong reasons to suppose it wouldn’t be:

    US hostility toward Russia is unalterable for the foreseeable future. In a rational policymaking context, it should be obvious that there is no inherent reason for US-Russia animosity. The basic interests of the two states do not conflict and there is much, other than China, that should be a basis for cooperation, such as the common threat of Islamic terrorism (as opposed to the decades-long US penchant of employing jihadists against Russia and other countries, like Serbia, Libya, and Syria).

    Unfortunately, there is little rationality about Russia in Washington. Diehard, uncompromising detestation of Russia, which decent people are not suppose to see as anything but an enemy, is inseparable from the transatlantic conspiracy to eject Trump from office. Indeed, Trump’s pledge to improve relations with Moscow is among the top reasons Trump is being targeted for removal.

    Hostility to Russia (and to any Trumpian hopes of détente) unites virtually all the Democrats, almost all prominent Republicans, the entire legacy media (of course), almost every prestigious think tank, and seemingly every high-level official on Trump’s own team. In the wake of his Helsinki summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump’s innocuous skepticism on supposed election “meddling,” the hysteria of this phalanx of hate has reached new heights of derangement. Senators promise a new “sanctions bill from hell” even as Trump insists existing sanctions are here to stay, presumably forever. The new Senate measure even includes a preposterous requirement that the Secretary of State “submit a determination of whether the Russian Federation meets the criteria for designation as a state sponsor of terrorism” – evidently ignoring the fact that for over seven years the US has armed and funded bona fide al-Qaeda-linked terrorists in Syria while Russia has been killing them.

    Trump’s own top officials openly press him not only on bogus 2016 meddling but already accusing Moscow of interfering in advance in the 2018 Congressional vote with the intent, without any sense of irony, to “undermine our democracy.” Social media like Facebook are on a search-and-destroy mission against anything even suspected of being “Russian-linked,” whatever that means. A young Russian student advocating gun rights and networking in Washington is treated as a conflation of Anna Chapman and Natasha Fatale while being smeared and slut-shamed across the major media(and her lawyer is threatened with a gag order). Stepped-up military aid is being provided to Kiev. The NATO Pac-Man is set to gobble up next (the Former Yugoslav Republic of) Macedonia, while in the process alienating Russia from longtime Orthodox Christian friend Greece.

    No wonder Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov can only look on with sardonic laughter.  

    In short, anything and everything Russian is toxic and becoming more so. Even if Trump really wanted to change this state of affairs – sure proof the evil Russians must “have something on him,” according to former CIA Director Leon Panetta – he couldn’t do it. Not only his opposition but his own team will see to that. US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley says Russia “is never going to be our friend.” The Russians have every reason to take her at her word.

    This makes any notion of enlisting Russia as an ally against China impractical, to say the least. To even contemplate it the US would have to be able to extend some sort of olive branch to Russia, but that can’t happen anytime soon, if ever. You can’t build a partnership on the basis of unremitting antagonism.

    Russia is once burned, twice shy. Even in the event, currently inconceivable, that the US did offer to bury the hatchet with Russia, the Russians would have to be fools to accept.

    They are not fools.

    Apart from the most minimal, easily verified circumstances, why would anyone in Moscow believe any assurance from anyone in Washington? Did the US honor our commitment to Boris Yeltsin not to move NATO “one inch” further east following Germany reunification? Did the US respect the United Nations Charter, the Helsinki Final Act, and UN Security Council Resolution 1244 during the Bill Clinton Administration’s 1999 military aggression against Serbia over Kosovo or the George W. Bush Administration’s spearheading of Kosovo’s purported secession in 2008? Does the US show good faith in baseless accusations of Russian guilt in false flag chemical attacks in Syria and the United Kingdom?

    While Russian officials by nature remain open to “businesslike” and professional discussion with those they still insist on referring to as “partners,” they also know blind ideological and zoological hatred when they see it.

    Even if tomorrow the US would offer the Russians the sun, the moon, and the stars in exchange for cooperation against China, they wouldn’t bite. Nor should they.

    Russia has more objective incentives to get along with China than with the US. The main thing Russia needs from the US is basically – well, nothing. That is to say, there is very little of a practical, especially economic, nature Russia needs in a positive sense from the US, and vice versa. What Russia mainly wants from the US is negative: to stop regarding Russia as an enemy and get out of Moscow’s face in regions vitally important to Russia but of little or no value to the US.

    Without taking the analogy to George Orwell’s 1984 too far (with America as the primary component of Oceania, Russia of Eurasia, and China of Eastasia), geographically America and Russia not only have no reason for conflict, they have little natural need for interdependence. Russia is the closest approximation of the “Heartland” of Halford Mackinder’s “World Island. The United States is the principal in Mackinder’s “Outlying Islands” (Western Hemisphere and Australia) and “Offshore Islands” (British Isles and the Pacific “First Island Chain”). But, contra the fantasies of some half-baked graduates of an elementary geopolitical “Mackindergarten,” this configuration need not give rise to a predetermined and inevitable conflict but points as easily to the self-sufficiency of each dominant power within its own exclusive sphere.

    With a common boarder of over 2,500 miles, Russia and China are locked into a relationship by the simple fact of geography in a way neither is with the United States, which inherently is in the most secure position of the three. The Russo-Chinese relationship can be hostile (as it notably was in the late 1960s, when the two then-communist giants fought a short border war that threatened to escalate into a nuclear conflict and set the stage for Nixon’s China initiative) or it can be cooperative. Fueled in part by an entrenched American animus against Russia and a growing one towards China, Moscow and Beijing have chosen full-spectrum partnership via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), the New (formerly BRICS) Development Bank (NDB), and other initiatives. Finally, Russia and China are working in concert to de-dollarize their financial systems in favor of local currency and of gold, which both countries have been buying in massive amounts.

    Such ties between Russia and China are as natural, complimentary, and obvious as are America’s with Canada and Mexico. It’s hard to picture Moscow (or Beijing) abandoning them because someone in Washington flashes a come-hither look.

    *  *  *

    If Trump survives the efforts to remove him (either politically or physically) – a tall order, given the forces arrayed against him – and doesn’t plunge the US and the Middle East into an Iran misadventure that would destroy his presidency, it is still an open question whether he can deliver on an America First policy. Along with getting control of our borders and restoring America’s industrial base eroded by bad trade policies, that must mean completing his demolition of the failed neoliberal order of which the US has been the guarantor and enforcer.

    In its place the only stable and mutually advantageous arrangement for America is a Big Three accord with both Russia and China. The notion of turning one against the other should be dismissed as the distraction it is.

  • Facebook's Attention Machine, Explained

    Authored by Azeem via The Exponential View,

    A brief guide into why Facebook doesn’t sell your data

    You read that right.

    Facebook does not sell your data, despite the widespread belief that it does.

    We at Exponential View united with Qriously to research how people think about their data on Facebook, finding that two-thirds misunderstand the ways the information they provide serves this business.

    Hoping to bring the machinery closer to you, we worked with Tremendo.us to illustrate the process. Understand it, share it, and educate others around you.

    Source: Exponentia lView

  • Gold…Yuan…Crypto…

    Authored by “Dr.D” via Raul Ilargi Meijer’s Automatic Earth blog,

    It’s been a while since we last heard from Dr. D, but here he’s back explaining why neither gold nor the yuan nor cryptocurrencies can or will replace the dollar as the reserve currency, but together they just might:

    Dr. D:

     “Some debts are fun when you are acquiring them, but none are fun when you set about retiring them.” –Ogden Nash

    Over the last year or two there’s been discussion about the U.S. Federal spending moving beyond $4 TRILLION dollars, and whether a $1+ trillion dollar annual deficit, on top of a $20 Trillion national debt – Federal only – is sustainable. It isn’t.

    “What can’t go on, doesn’t” is the famous quote of economist Herbert Stein. Since a spiraling deficit of $1 trillion deficit on a $20 trillion debt can’t go on, what will we replace it with when it very soon doesn’t? Historically gold. Whatever gold exists in the nation’s coffers, whether one coin or 8,000 tons, is used to as the national wealth, and fronted by paper to re-boot the currency. With some additions such as oil and real estate, this was the solution in Spain, France, Germany, and the Soviet Union among hundreds of fiat defaults. Why? Because at a time of broken promises — real goods, commodities that can be seen, touched, and used – are the tangible proof of wealth, requiring no trust, and from which the human trust system of paper and letters of credit can be rebuilt.

    But in these complicated, digital times perhaps that’s too simplistic. Perhaps we have grown smarter than all our fathers and this time it will be different. Will it really be the same? Let’s look at how the system works now.

    Before WWI, the world was on the gold standard. This had variations, exceptions, corruptions, but on the whole there was gold in the back that was fronted by paper promises issued by private banks. The paper moved, the promises were delivered by telegraph and telephone, and the gold remained in the vaults. It was only when men felt unsure of the truth of the promise they could and did demand delivery, called the bluff, and the bank did – or ominously didn’t – deliver the gold, and thereby keep the paper system in line with reality, with real wealth, and with the economy. This method kept men and nations honest, mostly.

    The main part is that the gold didn’t move: it stayed in the same vaults and its ownership changed, just like today. It didn’t matter how much gold existed: it simply changed price, just like today.

    All this changed after WWI. The nations had so impoverished themselves that they could no longer repay their real debts and restore their currencies following a 1,000 year tradition of inflating during wars and deflating after. The deflation was too high for Britain and France even while removing the total wealth of Germany, and they began to cheat, double-counting the gold on their books to relieve the pressure. And so the non-gold system began. With other causes, the inflation of this change began to be felt through the Roaring 20’s, until when the phantom money was called on – as was tradition when people began to suspect that the paper they owned was no longer backed with adequate real goods – the illusion popped.

    The inflation was shown to be a fraud supported by the highest powers in government and finance, and the real economy withdrew their lack of trust until the matter was fixed. It wasn’t. As the system was fundamentally unchanged and no trust was restored, the rich were protected and law and property rights were trampled in a decade of Tom Joads, the economy never recovered. Although destroying half the nations on earth restored the real balance between paper fantasy and real production, the unemployment that never existed before WWI was never cured and has continued, ever worsening to this day. But note: before, during, and after the Depression, there was the same amount of gold. The gold did nothing, it was meaningless, only the paper promises over it expanded and contracted.

    With the systemic dishonesty still in place preventing the books from matching the real wealth and production, the economy soon returned to a diseased state. While gold was illegal for men to own, the rich do as they please and as tradition, removed the gold of the United States to hold them to truth and honesty from printing too much fake money for guns and butter. They withstood the 12 year bank run until, in 1971, they folded, having lost 2/3s of the national savings, gold.

    The world was now in uncharted territory. Much more than they never returned to honesty and a gold standard after WWI, they never attempted it after WWII, going to the -Bretton Woods” standard: the world would use the US$ as the standard, and the US$ would be backed with their 20,000 tonnes of gold. Now there was no gold, no gold standard, only unbacked US$ paper, a debt you could neither call on nor prove. As Nixon’s Treasury Secretary Connally said: “the dollar may be our currency, but it’s your problem.’

    Inflation started immediately, and as the U.S. still resisted re-establishing physical trust, the connection between the books and reality, they quickly spiraled into South American malaise and high inflation, as seen in the gold price. From $20/oz, or rather a dollar value of 0.029, the dollar ran to 0.0011 – 1/26th of its former price — and looked to disappear altogether. This was not unexpected as fiat currencies on average live 40 years before collapsing. If you take 1941 as the start date, the unbacked US$ would have collapsed in 1981, exactly when it did. What to do? How to re-start the system without having to actually reform, give up war, be honest, and return to trust?

    Henry Kissinger had the plan. As no one on earth was on the gold standard – not really – the US$ had only two legs, its worldwide use and military force. He made use of them both by demanding the Saudis accept only US$ for oil transactions. Although U.S. production was diminishing, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were still the two largest oil producers at that time. Most other nations imported oil, especially Europe.

    To have assurity of access to that oil — and not run afoul of the U.S. military – they needed to keep a substantial portion of their national accounts in US$, or more technically U.S. Treasury debt, sparking not just the ability, but the REQUIREMENT of a massive U.S. deficit. Kissinger just discovered social media: the truth that virtual things have value simply because other people use them. This was for all practical purposes the first virtual currency, existing only in room-sized mainframes in central banks worldwide. The world’s currency now looked like this:

    (Courtesy of Dr. Willie)

    A virtual currency backed by nothing, based on the usage in trade. But that isn’t a full chart and isn’t meant to be. On the side, back in the corners, the US$ was still convertible to gold for the “right kind of people”, using delivery in NY and London to banks in Switzerland. The volumes of US$ grew to trillions while the gold component withered to billions, yet still the Saudis banked billions in gold before it was recently stolen from their Swiss accounts, lawsuits pending. Why? Because there is still no trust between nations and billionaires who have a long history of cheating each other. The gold-in-hand safety valve existed to retain some trust, however distant, in the now-digital system.

    “Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency, where no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it.” –Alan Greenspan, 2014 interview of the Council on Foreign Relations.

    So is the system still gold backed with gold as the “premier”, that is, first, real, and primary currency as Greenspan said? You tell me:

    Apart from the Iraq war, the price of oil has been stable for 50 years. In 1950, two silver dimes would buy a gallon of gas. In 2018 two silver dimes are worth $2.22, or the price of a gallon of gas, minus the new taxes. Meanwhile the US$ value has dropped steadily:

    Doesn’t that mean that it’s still gold and not the dollar that is the standard, the “store of value”, and the “reserve currency”, however unspoken? If not and it’s a relic, a rounding error we cannot return to, why, as Ben Bernanke was asked, do all the banks and nations still own it?

    Back to the $20,000,000,000,000 debt the U.S. as reserve currency was REQUIRED to issue, it’s now been 40 years since 1978: what happens when the U.S. Dollar disappears as all fiat currencies do? Because it seems we would have to do something. It may be that even before 1988, people already knew this conversion, this transfer, must happen roundabout 2018:

    If the old currency burns as predicted 30 years ago, what next? Will it be replaced by a gold coin or a “zero” coin, chained under the fleur-de-lis? It would seem the new currency must be trusted, which is the original problem, must be a replacement in trade, and must be large enough to handle what are now multi-billion trade and multi-trillion Forex flows. Is the answer gold? Well yes…and no. Certainly China thinks so:

    And Russia:

    And for that matter Germany and Holland and even Texas, who have repatriated their gold back home. But there’s one little problem:

    These are the official western gold reserves; however, while the gold base remained stable, the overall financial system has expanded. This can be seen in all paper assets, but a good example can be found here:

    That’s what? A 20,000-fold rise? And this is only marking “credit”, not equities or cash. We are indeed in an inflationary period: inflation in assets owned by the 1%. How out of line is this? Here’s the kindred chart in productive terms, GDP:

    A 9-fold increase in ability versus 20,000-fold increase in promises. Sounds like someone won’t get paid. And you know what bankers and economists call that?

    Default. Massive, system ending default, the size of WWI or the Great Depression. That’s how fiat standards end.

    How big would that be? Here are some relative sizes:

    Actually, that’s pretty understated. Derivatives in 2018 may be as much as $2 QUADRILLION. No one knows. Compare to this:

    $3 Trillion in gold. Now that’s “official” gold and we already showed that “official” Chinese gold is 4,000 tonnes when it may be as high as 30,000 tonnes, but the principle is the same: gold is wildly smaller than the needs of the financial system. Or is it? In previous financial inflations…which I just showed we have had since 1971, in 20,000x scale…gold simply rose until it became the right size.

    It’s perfectly simple. Gold rises 20,000 times or however much it must to re-back the system. It always has before, even in 1979 when the price rocketed from $35 to $880 where US debt to gold holdings ratio stabilized at a very reasonable 10:1…the classic level of fractional reserve trust. If China officially owns 5,000 tonnes, and Russia 2,000, with the west also 15,000 collectively, we have 22,000 tonnes over what BusinessInsider says is $160 Trillion in assets, and you get $7.27B/tonne or $226,000/oz.

    That’s a 188x increase. 1979 was a 25x increase on an awful lot less trouble, inflation, and fraud. That’s only 7x larger. Is that unreasonable? With 40 years of inflation and very little comparative rise in gold, why shouldn’t it catch up as it did in 1979? So gold will rise and we’ll have a $200,000 gold standard? That’s what will happen?

    Not so fast. We COULD have a gold standard, and China, Russia and other major nations appear ready to do so if necessary, but remember we didn’t return to the gold standard last time either. Instead, we cheated and moved to a digital standard stored in ancient mainframes. Why wouldn’t we just cheat again? Back to this:

    The two problems in the original chart are trust and price. The price must restore a connection between reality -real value and real production- and price; and the “reserve currency”, the medium of exchange, must be a trusted agent or method. Why would we need coins in our pockets to make that happen? For that matter, why would we need banks, who have widely proven to be the most corrupt, untrustworthy element in the whole system? We can’t go to a new system if it’s the same as the old: that’s WHY the system failed and cycles from gold to silver, silver to paper, paper to gold. We can’t go from paper to paper, that won’t work; but we also can’t so easily go to gold, asking an 800-fold increase since 2000. It would have the same disruptions Weimar had that brought Hitler, or the Jacobins had that brought Napoleon, or that Venezuela has today. And why should we? There’s no need.

    The chart above has the US/Saudi oil as the critical mass of trade that allows the US$ reserve. But that isn’t necessarily true today. Today the mass of trade is in goods to and from China. But China isn’t large enough, deep enough, or trusted enough to be the new world currency. And why should they? The reserve currency is what just hollowed out and bankrupted the United States: they would just be imitating our faults. We’d also be moving from one untrusted, unbacked currency to another, and history says that doesn’t happen. So why don’t we do this:

    (Courtesy Dr. Willie)

    China demands not US Treasuries in NY as collateral to ship goods as presently, and not Yuan bonds, but gold bullion posted in their hot new Shanghai market, which allows physical delivery on demand. This bullion never moves as collateral, but is simply posted by one party then released on delivery. Shanghai is already larger than London, and the largest banks are already in China, which probably has the largest economy. The West and their banks are a has-been: we’re only admitting to a reality that happened years ago.

    This solves our two problems: how do we know we’re returning to fair trade, like-for-like? Real goods on container ships are trading for real goods in vaults. How do we know it’s fair, mostly? You can convert the Yuan-sponsored, gold trade note to physical delivery from Shanghai, a thing which is no longer truly possible in London and NY. Will this reversion increase the gold price? Probably. How much? Every number is a state secret, but assuming the 10:1 ratio the United States showed in 1980, let’s say it’s 1:10 of our $226,000 number above or $22,600/oz. That’s reasonable, practicable, and neither stops business nor starts wars. We can do it today, and given China, Russia, Japan, Asia, Australia, and even London appear to be joining China’s AIIB front bank, I would say it already IS happening.

    Which leads to one more problem. Certainly TODAY you can take gold delivery in Shanghai, but as London, NY, and the Saudis discovered, the first thing that happens once you build a system of trust is to close the doors and cheat on it. How do we know the gold is there? Even though Shanghai is a “third party” allowing delivery, who’s to say they will be tomorrow? The banks are notorious for “hypothecating”, doubling, tripling the gold on their books with accounting fraud backed by the full faith and credibility of governments, and no one’s in the mood for trusting the Chinese any more than Wells Fargo or DeutscheBank. That would drop us back to a hard gold standard, a $220,000 price, a halt to world trade, and possible world war we were trying to avoid. We need an accounting method that is better trusted and can’t be gamed. How to fix it?

    The gold in Shanghai has a chain of custody, no different from “London Deliverable” standards we have today. An original audit, adjusted for receipts and deliveries is all we need. Which is where we add the blockchain. With it, Shanghai cannot double the gold on their books like Europe did in 1922 or the CME does today, marking it both received and loaned, because the blockchain only allows one position, one state at a time. Gold assayed and entered by refiner is tagged to a kilo, and you can follow that kilo bar through the system, not with double counts and vanishing, ever-changing serial numbers as the Federal Reserve and the GLD ETF showed.

    Can it be cheated? All systems can be cheated, that’s the nature of men. But it makes it much harder, hard enough to establish adequate trust in banks and governments that otherwise would go to war. Will it be tied to Bitcoin? Yes, but no differently than it will be tradable to the Thai bhat or the ruble. With near-zero cost conversions, all currencies, crypto or otherwise, will be far more interchangeable and thus to some extent identical. They may even disappear, as happened when Jackson closed the 2nd central bank 182 years ago and the nation essentially moved to private currencies.

    What will happen to the Dollar? It will still exist, but in some new, revised form. But the US$ today is transferring 3% of the nation’s wealth from the poor to the rich via inflation. Do we really want to keep it? And if it’s not a store of value and it’s already not the reserve currency — we just showed it’s a diluted proxy for gold and oil — why should the reformed US$ be any different? The dollar will be our national currency, still diluted and still referring to the real currency: gold, the attached Trade Note, and its crypto accounting. Until the next fraud and next crisis, perhaps in 2058.

    And that’s the long story of how we leave the present debt-backed U.S. paper dollar and move to a Yuan-sponsored gold trade note that is a gold-backed cryptocurrency. In some ways we already have. Watch and see as they have the public opening of a structure planned and established years ago.

  • Streaming TV Doubles During Second Quarter, Report Says

    As a result of the accelerating cord-cutting trend, streaming TV increased in the second quarter, according to a new report from Conviva, a real-time measurement and intelligence platform for many of the world’s largest streaming TV publishers, which found content consumption more than doubled over the last 12 months.

    The Conviva sensor is installed in 3 billion streaming video applications for over 200 brands. This represents the largest, independent census data collection and measurement network in the world. The data is a fully anonymized census measuring every stream from Conviva’s customer base between April 01 and June 30, 2018, and cross-referencing it with datasets from the same period last year.

    In Q2 2018, viewing hours increased by 115 percent as compared to the same period last year indicative of a surge in growth, as represented by Conviva’s customer base.

    Another indication of growth in streaming is the massive increase Conviva saw in peak concurrent plays (the peak number of simultaneous active sessions at any given second. This is a real-time measure of the audience scale (concurrency)), as 7.9 million people watched the World Cup, which resulted in 118 percent spike in peak concurrency from the same period last year.

    France and Croatia on July 15 drove a peak concurrency of 9.12 million plays, shattering previous records. 

    The report specified when excluding the World Cup, peak concurrency in Q2 2018 was still elevated by more than 45 percent y/y, surge to 5.3 million concurrent plays during the NBA Western Conference Finals.

    “These spikes demonstrate that sports continue to drive ‘appointment TV’ – even in the streaming TV space,” the report said. “They create opportunities, but they also create massive load on the video delivery ecosystem, which much continues to improve in order to meet growing demand.”

    Conviva finds that North America remains the most robust growth market, showing y/y growth in both plays up 124 percent and viewing hours up 139 percent. Asia’s growth in plays soared y/y by 63 percent, but with modest growth of 22 percent in viewing hours.

    Different types of content is being viewed on various devices, the report determined. Streaming TV is shifting away from PCs (24 percent of plays) to mobile devices (49 percent of plays), particularly for content that is of short-form, including TV series, sports, and live broadcasts. Connected TVs (51 percent of viewing hours) are favored for long-form content, such as movies.

    “The shift away from PCs and to mobile is unmistakable when comparing this data to Q2 2017 when mobile had a 39 percent share of plays while PCs had a 38 percent share. Among connected TV platforms, Roku continues to emerge as a leader with nearly 8 percent of all plays, while Sony’s PlayStation and Google’s Chromecast experienced the fastest YoY growth, both north of 150 percent YoY,” said Conviva.

    Overall, cord-cutters continue to prefer smartphones as consuming devices for short-form content and TVs for consuming long-form movies. The newest trend spotted in the research is that PCs are losing dramatic share to mobile devices, while among connected TV platforms, Samsung and other TV platforms are losing ground to Roku, Google’s Chromecast, Sony’s PlayStation, and Amazon’s Fire TV.

  • Venezuela's Maduro Targeted In Assassination Attempt Using Explosive Drones

    A speech by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro at an army commemoration event was abruptly cut off due to a reported assassination attempt using several drones packed with explosives, injuring seven National Guard soldiers. The extent of their injuries is not known, however they are reportedly receiving medical care.  

    In live footage, Maduro and officials standing behind him can be seen looking up as an explosion is heard in the distance, after which soldiers can be seen running in disarray before the transmission ends. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Speaking on state television, Information Minister Jorge Rodriguez confirmed that it was an assassination attempt, and that Maduro is was evacuated from the scene. Firefighters near the scene, however, are disputing the official version of events. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Today’s attempt has failed and the people stand by Maduro,” said Rodriguez. 

    Security forces check blast heard during ceremony with dictator Nicolás Maduro in Caracas – Juan Barreto / AFP

    Maduro was giving a speech in the capital of Caracas during a celebration of the National Guard’s 81st anniversary. He was wearing the presidential banner.

    “To the conscious Venezuela, we are going to bet for the good of our country, the hour of the economic recovery has come and we need…,” Maduro was saying before the cameras quickly moved away from him.

    Maduro was standing next to his wife Cilia Flores and several high-ranking military officials for the event.

    A video shows Flores wince, and both she and Maduro look up after an unidentified sound. –AP

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    Venezuelan journalist Roman Camacho reported on Twitter, citing “unofficial sources,” that a drone loaded with the explosive C4 was detonated near the presidential box, and that several army cadets were injured.

    Maduro was speaking at the 81st anniversary celebration of the Bolivarian National Guard (GNB) when the incident took place. We expect allegations that this was a false flag to emerge at any moment, as it’s not that hard to fly a drone if one knows what they’re doing. 

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  • Government Silent As Mystery Meteor Almost Explodes Over US Air Force Base

    On August 01, the director of the Nuclear Information Project for the Federation of American Scientists, Hans Kristensen, tweeted: “Meteor explodes with 2.1 kilotons force 43 km (26 miles) above missile early warning radar at Thule Air Base.”

    Kristensen quoted a tweet that originated from “Rocket Ron” (@RonBaalke), whose profile allegedly indicates he is a scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a federally funded research and development center and NASA field center in La Cañada Flintridge, California. The original tweet on July 31 said: ” A fireball was detected over Greenland on July 25, 2018 by US Government sensors at an altitude of 43.3 km (43 miles). The energy from the explosion is estimated to be 2.1 kilotons.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Data from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory shows reported fireball events for which geographic locations are provided. Each event’s calculated total impact energy is indicated by its relative size and by color. The record shows a meteor traveling at 24.4 kilometers per second (54,000 mph) at 76.9 degrees north latitude, 69.0 degrees west longitude, on July 25 at 11:55 p.m, slammed into the atmosphere directly over Thule, Greenland.

    According to the Military Times, the meteor “struck…miles from a key U.S. early warning air base,” which is home to the 12th Space Warning Squadron based at Thule, that operates and maintains the Air Base in support of missile warning, space surveillance, and satellite command-and-control operations missions. Thule is located 1,207 km (750 miles) north of the Arctic Circle and 1,524 km (947 miles) from the North Pole on the northwest side of the island of Greenland.

    UHF Phased Array Radar at Thule Air Base (Source/ Air Force)

    The story was first reported by Australian media, then blasted across America via Fox News on Friday. The article’s title read “Air Force remains silent after huge meteor hits near US military base,” which generated tremendous buzz on social media and triggered a swarm of journalist contacting the Air Base about the matter.

    “No, we don’t have any reports of damage, why are we getting calls on this now?” said Steve Brady, a spokesman at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado, which handles Thule’s media queries, even though Thule is located in Greenland.

    The Aviationist’s Tom Demerly, who reported on the mystery meteor, wrote in an analysis that it is disturbing because there was no public warning from the U.S. government about the meteor impact. “Had it entered at a more perpendicular angle, it would have struck the earth with significantly greater force,” he wrote.

    As to “significantly greater force,” well, Demerly does not specifically define what that means as far as kilotons. However, the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor incident (below) provides the very real understanding of the destructive nature of these space objects. We ask just one question: Why did the US government initially fail to alert citizens of Greenland and the US of an incoming meteor that could have potentially been very dangerous?

    *  *  *

    The Chelyabinsk meteor entered Earth’s atmosphere over Russia on February 2013, with a speed of 19 kilometers per second (42,500 mph). It quickly became a dazzling superbolide meteor over the southern Ural region. The bulk of the meteor’s energy was absorbed by the atmosphere, with total kinetic energy before atmospheric impact estimated from infrasound and seismic measurements to be equivalent to the blast yield of 400–500 kilotons or roughly 26 to 33 times as much energy as that released from the atomic bomb detonated at Hiroshima.

    This footage below from multiple closed-circuit television systems recorded the moment when the meteor slammed into the Earth’s atmosphere generating a massive shockwave across the Ural region.

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Today’s News 4th August 2018

  • A Chinese Spy Worked In Senator Dianne Feinstein's Office For Twenty Years

    We can only imagine the twenty-four hour media blitz that would be unleashed if this had happened with the Trump campaign, or on anyone’s staff even remotely associated  with President Trump past or present.

    But when the story first broke in the middle of this week of a mole working on behalf of the Russian Chinese government on a powerful Democrat Senate Intelligence Committee member’s staff, it passed in the mainstream media with a yawn, and though slowly gaining visibility still hasn’t been covered by some of the large cable networks or newspapers. 

    Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) was “mortified” upon learning that a Chinese spy had worked in her office for nearly 20 years.

    Image via Reuters

    According to new details initially unveiled in a Politico report on Russian and Chinese spies in Silicon Valley, a staffer who was fired five years ago had managed to stay on her team for nearly two decades likely out of motivation to collect information related to her long tenure on the Senate Intelligence Committee, for which she maintains top-secret security clearance

    Sen. Feinstein reportedly made the staffer retire upon being alerted by the FBI. He worked as her personal driver and clerk for her Bay Area office, as CBS San Francisco relates:

    On Wednesday, the San Francisco Chronicle uncovered additional details in a column written by reporters Phil Matier and Andy Ross. The column revealed that the Chinese spy was Feinstein’s driver who also served as a gofer in her Bay Area office and was a liaison to the Asian-American community.

    He even attended Chinese consulate functions for the senator.

    Feinstein — who was Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee at the timewas reportedly mortified when the FBI told her she’d be infiltrated. Investigators reportedly concluded the driver hadn’t leaked anything of substance and Feinstein forced him to retire.

    Perhaps the most stunning part of the story is that he remained in her office for nearly two decades, reportedly having contact with China’s Ministry of State Security for an unknown number of years during that lengthy period. 

    Though it’s unclear when his contact with the Chinese state began, follow-up reports by local San Francisco sources claim he may have been an unwitting asset.

    The San Francisco Chronicle in a follow-up investigation reports:

    According to our source, the intrigue started years earlier when the staffer took a trip to Asia to visit relatives and was befriended by someone who continued to stay in touch with him on subsequent visits.

    That someone was connected with the People’s Republic of China’s Ministry of State Security.

    “He didn’t even know what was happening — that he was being recruited,” says our source. “He just thought it was some friend.”

    Neither the FBI nor Chinese embassy has issued official comment in response to the bombshell story; however, various reports cite investigators close to the matter who say the mole was able to obtain little or nothing of substance. 

    It’s believed that the advantage of Chinese intelligence placing a driver with the Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee is that he may have picked up on tidbits of sensitive conversations at moments the senator thought she could comfortably speak to colleagues and staff. 

    One former counter-espionage FBI agent in the Bay Area, Jeff Harp, told CBS San Francisco he believes someone like Sen. Feinstein would constitute a key, high value target for foreign intelligence and eavesdropping:

    Harp pointed out politicians with access to classified information are generally trained on what not to say and when not to say it. But he also noted when you have a driver behind the wheel day in and day out for 20 years, there are more opportunities to slip up.

    “Think about Diane Feinstein and what she had access to,” Harp explained. “One, she had access to the Chinese community here in San Francisco; great amount of political influence. Two, correct me if I’m wrong, Dianne Feinstein still has very close ties to the intelligence committees there in Washington, D.C.”

    And of Silicon Valley being a hotbed of Chinese espionage, Harp continued, “They also have an interest in the economy here. How to get political influence here. What’s being developed in Silicon Valley that has dual-use technology. All of that is tied to the Bay Area.”

  • Liberal Hero Chomsky Admits "Israeli Intervention In US Elections Overwhelms Anything Russia Has Done"

    Well, this is going to make the weekend’s political conversations a little more awkward around America.

    As the mainstream media (and even the leftist politicians) begin to back quietly away from the “collusion” narrative, they remain increasingly focused on Russia’s “evil” efforts at “meddling” in the US election and “interfering with our democracy,” or some such hysterical phrase.

    And that is what makes the comments by mainstay of world-renowned political dissident and liberal-thinking hero Noam Chomsky’s comments in the following interview with Democracy Now so ‘awkward’ for the Trump-hating members of society.

    …so, take, say, the huge issue of interference in our pristine elections. Did the Russians interfere in our elections? An issue of overwhelming concern in the media. I mean, in most of the world, that’s almost a joke.

    First of all, if you’re interested in foreign interference in our elections, whatever the Russians may have done barely counts or weighs in the balance as compared with what another state does, openly, brazenly and with enormous support.

    Israeli intervention in U.S. elections vastly overwhelms anything the Russians may have done…

    I mean, even to the point where the prime minister of Israel, Netanyahu, goes directly to Congress, without even informing the president, and speaks to Congress, with overwhelming applause, to try to undermine the president’s policies – what happened with Obama and Netanyahu in 2015….

    Did Putin come to give an address to the joint sessions of Congress trying to – calling on them to reverse U.S. policy, without even informing the president? And that’s just a tiny bit of this overwhelming influence.

    So if you happen to be interested in influence of – foreign influence on elections, there are places to look. But even that is a joke.

    I mean, one of the most elementary principles of a functioning democracy is that elected representatives should be responsive to those who elected them. There’s nothing more elementary than that. But we know very well that that is simply not the case in the United States.

    There’s ample literature in mainstream academic political science simply comparing voters’ attitudes with the policies pursued by their representatives, and it shows that for a large majority of the population, they’re basically disenfranchised. Their own representatives pay no attention to their voices. They listen to the voices of the famous 1 percent – the rich and the powerful, the corporate sector.

    The elections—Tom Ferguson’s stellar work has demonstrated, very conclusively, that for a long period, way back, U.S. elections have been pretty much bought. You can predict the outcome of a presidential or congressional election with remarkable precision by simply looking at campaign spending. That’s only one part of it. Lobbyists practically write legislation in congressional offices. In massive ways, the concentrated private capital, corporate sector, super wealth, intervene in our elections, massively, overwhelmingly, to the extent that the most elementary principles of democracy are undermined. Now, of course, all that is technically legal, but that tells you something about the way the society functions.

    So, if you’re concerned with our elections and how they operate and how they relate to what would happen in a democratic society, taking a look at Russian hacking is absolutely the wrong place to look. Well, you see occasionally some attention to these matters in the media, but very minor as compared with the extremely marginal question of Russian hacking.

    And I think we find this on issue after issue, also on issues on which what Trump says, for whatever reason, is not unreasonable. So, he’s perfectly right when he says we should have better relations with Russia.

    Being dragged through the mud for that is outlandish, makes – Russia shouldn’t refuse to deal with the United States because the U.S. carried out the worst crime of the century in the invasion of Iraq, much worse than anything Russia has done.

    But they shouldn’t refuse to deal with us for that reason, and we shouldn’t refuse to deal with them for whatever infractions they may have carried out, which certainly exist. This is just absurd. We have to move towards better – right at the Russian border, there are very extreme tensions, that could blow up anytime and lead to what would in fact be a terminal nuclear war, terminal for the species and life on Earth. We’re very close to that.

    Now, we could ask why. First of all, we should do things to ameliorate it. Secondly, we should ask why. Well, it’s because NATO expanded after the collapse of the Soviet Union, in violation of verbal promises to Mikhail Gorbachev, mostly under Clinton, partly under first Bush, then Clinton expanded right to the Russian border, expanded further under Obama.

    The U.S. has offered to bring Ukraine into NATO. That’s the kind of a heartland of Russian geostrategic concerns.

    So, yes, there’s tensions at the Russian border – and not, notice, at the Mexican border. Well, those are all issues that should be of primary concern.

    The fate of – the fate of organized human society, even of the survival of the species, depends on this. How much attention is given to these things as compared with, you know, whether Trump lied about something? I think those seem to me the fundamental criticisms of the media.

    So to sum upTrump’s right about better relations with Russia – the fate of the world depends on it, Russia did nothing of note, Russian hacking is extremely marginal, Israel is the real meddler, US democracy no longer exists, the billionaire corporatocracy runs America.

    Is Noam Chomsky a “puppet of Putin”? Did the veteran political dissident just become a “useful idiot”? Well he must be an anti-semite, right? We look forward to Adam Schiff’s response to this crushing blow to the left’s ‘russia-russia-russia’ narrative.

  • Hiroshima Revisited: Memorializing The Horrors Of War With 10 Must-See War Films

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “The horror… the horror…”—Apocalypse Now (1979)

    Nearly 73 years ago, the United States unleashed atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing more than 200,000 individuals, many of whom were civilians.

    Fast forward to the present day, and the U.S. military under President Trump’s leadership is dropping a bomb every 12 minutes.

    This follows on the heels of President Obama, the antiwar candidate and Nobel Peace Prize winner who waged war longer than any American president and whose targeted-drone killings continued to feed the war machine and resulted in at least 1.3 million lives lost to the U.S.-led war on terror.

    America has long had a penchant for endless wars that empty our national coffers while fattening those of the military industrial complex. Since 9/11, we’ve spent more than $1.6 trillion to wage wars in Afghanistan and Iraq

    When you add in our military efforts in Syria and Pakistan, as well as the lifetime price of health care for disabled veterans and interest on the national debt, that cost rises to $5.6 trillion.

    Even with America’s military might spread thin, the war drums continue to sound as the Pentagon polices the rest of the world with more than 1.3 million U.S. troops being stationed at roughly 1000 military bases in over 150 countries.

    To this end, Americans are fed a steady diet of pro-war propaganda that keeps them content to wave flags with patriotic fervor and less inclined to look too closely at the mounting body counts, the ruined lives, the ravaged countries, the blowback arising from ill-advised targeted-drone killings and bombing campaigns in foreign lands, or the transformation of our own homeland into a warzone.

    Nowhere is this double-edged irony more apparent than during military holidays, when we get treated to a generous serving of praise and grandstanding by politicians, corporations and others with similarly self-serving motives eager to go on record as being pro-military.

    Yet war is a grisly business, a horror of epic proportions. In terms of human carnage alone, war’s devastation is staggering. For example, it is estimated that approximately 231 million people died worldwide during the wars of the 20th century. This figure does not take into account the walking wounded—both physically and psychologically—who “survive” war.

    War drives the American police state.

    The military-industrial complex is the world’s largest employer.

    War sustains our way of life while killing us at the same time. As Pulitzer Prize-winning war correspondent and author Chris Hedges observes:

    War is like a poison. And just as a cancer patient must at times ingest a poison to fight off a disease, so there are times in a society when we must ingest the poison of war to survive. But what we must understand is that just as the disease can kill us, so can the poison. If we don’t understand what war is, how it perverts us, how it corrupts us, how it dehumanizes us, how it ultimately invites us to our own self-annihilation, then we can become the victim of war itself.

    War also entertains us with its carnage, its killing fields, its thrills and chills and bloodied battles set to music and memorialized in books, on television, in video games, and in superhero films and blockbuster Hollywood movies financed in part by the military.

    War has become a centerpiece of American entertainment culture, most prevalent in war movies.

    War movies deal in the extremes of human behavior. The best films address not only destruction on a vast scale but also plumb the depths of humanity’s response to the grotesque horror of war. They present human conflict in its most bizarre conditions—where men and women caught in the perilous straits of death perform feats of noble sacrifice or dig into the dark battalions of cowardice.

    War films also provide viewers with a way to vicariously experience combat, but the great ones are not merely vehicles for escapism. Instead, they provide a source of inspiration, while touching upon the fundamental issues at work in wartime scenarios.

    As film director Sam Fuller points out, “You can’t show war as it really is on the screen, with all the blood and gore. Perhaps it would be better if you could fire real shots over the audience’s head every night, you know, and have actual casualties in the theater.”

    While there are many films to choose from, the following 10 classic war films touch on modern warfare (from the First World War onward) and run the gamut of conflicts and human emotions and center on the core issues often at work in the nasty business of war.

    The Third Man (1949). Carol Reed’s The Third Man, which deals primarily with the after-effects of the ravages of war, is a great film by anyone’s standards. Set in postwar Europe, this bleak film (written by Graham Greene) sets forth the proposition that the corruption inherent in humanity means that the ranks of war are never closed. There are many fine performances in this film, including Orson Welles, Joseph Cotten and Alida Valli.

    Paths of Glory (1957). This Stanley Kubrick film is an antiwar masterpiece. The setting is 1916, when two years of trench warfare have arrived at a stalemate. And while nothing of importance is occurring in the war, thousands of lives are being lost. But the masters of war pull the puppet strings, and the blood continues to flow. This film is packed with good performances, especially from Kirk Douglas and George Macready.

    The Manchurian Candidate (1962). John Frankenheimer’s classic focuses on the psychological effects of war and its transmutation into mind control and political assassination. All the lines of intrigue converge to form a prophetic vision of what occurred the year after the film’s release with the assassination of John F. Kennedy. This chilling film is well written (co-written by Frankenheimer and George Axelrod) and acted. Frank Sinatra, Laurence Harvey and Angela Lansbury head a fine cast.

    Dr. Strangelove, Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb (1964). One of the great films of all time, Stanley Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove burst onto the cinematic landscape and cast a cynical eye on the entire business of war. Strange and surreal, this film is packed full of amazing images and great performances. Peter Sellers should have walked off with the Oscar for best actor (but he didn’t). Sterling Hayden and George C. Scott are excellent in support.

    The Deer Hunter (1978). Michael Cimino’s Academy Award-winning film is one of the most emotion-invoking films ever made. This story of a group of Pennsylvania steel mill workers who endure excruciating ordeals in the Vietnam War is one film that makes its point clear—war is the horror of all horrors. Superb performance by Christopher Walken, who won a best supporting actor Oscar.

    Apocalypse Now (1979). I consider this Francis Ford Coppola’s best film. Based on Joseph Conrad’s novella, The Heart of Darkness, Captain Willard (Martin Sheen) treks to the Cambodian jungle to assassinate renegade, manic Colonel Kurtz (Marlon Brando). This antiwar epic is a great visual experience with fine performances from its ensemble cast.

    Platoon (1986). This is not Oliver Stone’s best film, but it is one helluva war movie. Set before and during the Tet Offensive of January 1968, this is a gritty view of the Vietnam War by one who served there. Indeed, when Stone is not filling the screen with explosions, he makes the jungle seem all too real—a wet place for bugs, leeches and snakes, but not for people. Fine performances by Willem Dafoe and Tom Berenger.

    Full Metal Jacket (1987). Stanley Kubrick’s take on Vietnam is one of the most powerful and psychological dramas ever made. Focusing on the schizophrenic nature of the human psyche—the duality of man—Kubrick takes us through a hell-like Parris Island boot camp and into the bowels of a surreal Vietnam through the eyes of Joker (Matthew Modine). Every facet of this film, as in all of Kubrick’s work, is top notch.

    Jacob’s Ladder (1990). Adrian Lyne’s thriller hits the psyche like a thunderbolt. A man (Tim Robbins) struggles with what he saw while serving in Vietnam. Back home, he gradually becomes unable to separate “reality” from the surreal, psychotic world that intermittently intervenes in his existence. This bizarre film touches on the sordid nature of war and the corruption of those who manipulate and experiment on us while we fight on their behalf. Good cast (especially Elizabeth Peña), an excellent screenplay (Bruce Joel Rubin) and adept directing make this film one nice trip.

    Jarhead (2005). Sam Mendes’ film follows a Marine recruit (Jake Gyllenhaal) through Marine boot camp to service in Operation Desert Storm, winding up at the Highway of Death. But what Mendes serves up is war as a phallic obsession in the oil-drenched sands of Kuwait and Iraq. Here soldiers fight not for causes but to survive in the nihilistic pursuit of destruction. Fine performance by Jamie Foxx as Sergeant Sykes.

    As these films illustrate, war is indeed hell.

    As I point out in my book A Government of Wolves: The Emerging American Police Statewhat we must decide is whether we’re stuck with the grim reality of war, or whether we’re prepared to do as Martin Luther King suggested in his Nobel Peace Prize lecture and find an alternative to war.

    Speaking in Oslo in 1964, King declared:

    Man’s proneness to engage in war is still a fact. But wisdom born of experience should tell us that war is obsolete. There may have been a time when war served as a negative good by preventing the spread and growth of an evil force, but the destructive power of modern weapons eliminated even the possibility that war may serve as a negative good. If we assume that life is worth living and that man has a right to survive, then we must find an alternative to war.

  • China's Military To Help Assad Retake Rest Of Syrian Territory, Ambassador Suggests

    The Chinese Ambassador to Syria, Qi Qianjin, has shocked Middle East pundits and observers with statements this week indicating the Chinese military may directly assist the Syrian Army in an upcoming major offensive on jihadist-held Idlib province.

    The “[Chinese] military is willing to participate in some way alongside the Syrian army that is fighting the terrorists in Idlib and in any other part of Syria,” the ambassador said in an interview with the pro-government daily newspaper Al-Watan, subsequently translated by The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI).

    Substantial rumors from pro-Damascus sources of a major Syrian-Russian led offensive to take back Idlib, held since 2015 by a Nusra Front dominated coalition (since rebranding itself as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham/HTS), have been swirling since the now successful Assad campaign to take back the whole of the south was initiated, and these sources indicate the battle could begin as early as September.

    But crucially, Idlib province is now the ground zero gathering point of nearly all jihadist and ISIS factions remaining in Syria, including foreign fighters. According to some estimates there are upwards of 40,000 armed jihadists within the main anti-Assad factions in Idlib, embedded within a population of about 2 million civilians and internally displaced persons (IDP’s). Thus the coming battle for Idlib is expected to be among the most bloody and grinding of the entire seven years of war, similar to Aleppo in 2016.

    China is chiefly interested in allying with Syrian government forces to root out the significant component of Chinese Muslim foreign fighters operating in Idlib. The hardline Islamist Uyghur militants have entered Syria in the thousands over the past few years from the western Chinese province of Xinjiang, where the minority ethno-religious group has found itself under increased persecution and oversight by the state. 

    In 2017 the Syrian government estimated their numbers at around 5,000.

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    Chinese Ambassador to Syria Qi Qianjin emphasized mutual counter-terror interests in his comments while making indirect reference to Uyghur jihadists, telling Al-Watan: “…There is positive military cooperation between China and Syria in the domain of counterterrorism. We know that the war on terror and Syria’s campaign against the terrorists serve not only the interests of the Syrian people but also the interests of the Chinese people and of [all] the peoples of the world.

    He explained further of Chinese interests in the war: “There has been close cooperation between our armies in fighting the terrorists [who came to Syria] from all over the world, including terrorists who came from China. This cooperation between the armies and [other] relevant elements will continue in the future…”

    Chinese Uyghur fighters have joined ISIS and other al-Qaeda factions in Syria. Image via the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

    When asked about the upcoming Idlib offensive, Qianjin replied that China “is following the situation in Syria, in particular after the victory in southern [Syria], and its military is willing to participate in some way alongside the Syrian army that is fighting the terrorists in Idlib and in any other part of Syria.”

    Chinese Uyghur’s have entered Syria in the thousands, confirmed through multiple of jihadi ​​social media sources and images.

    And in a separate statement to Al-Watan, a Chinese military attaché to Syria, Wong Roy Chang, backed the ambassador’s statement, albeit in a more reserved tone. Chang said, “The military cooperation between the Syrian and Chinese armies is ongoing. We have good relations and we maintain this cooperation in order to serve the security, integrity and stability of our countries. We – China and its military – wish to develop our relations with the Syrian army.”

    However, when pressed over whether Chinese troops would assist in the Idlib campaign, Chang said it was a “political decision” to be decided by Beijing.

    Meanwhile in the broader context of this week’s broader escalating trade war with Washington, and as China has long eyed being first in line torebuild Syria in close economic partnership with Damascus, Chinese companies in the Middle East will increasingly find themselves targeted by the West, as the US is seeking to prevent further Chinese and Russian entrenchment in the Middle East. 

  • Portland Braces For Saturday Bloodshed As Antifa Plans "Direct Confrontation" At Conservative Rally

    Officials in Portland, Oregon are bracing for violence during tomorrow’s conservative “Patriot Prayer” rally, a little over one month after “Rose City” Antifa squared off with conservatives in a violent altercation that took place in the middle of Second Avenue.

    The result was a viral video of a “one-punch” knockout of a masked leftist by Proud Boy Ethan Nordeen. 

    In response to the knockout, Proud Boys founder Gavin McInnes told Big League Politics: “F#&k around and find out,” stating that Antifa “found out.” 

    Ahead of Saturday’s conservative rally, Antifa is back at it again – planning a “direct confrontation” with participants, according to a call to action on the leftist website “It’s Going Down.

    Rose City Antifa has continued their great work of doxxing the Portland area Proud Boys involved in this violence, and is also calling for militant antifascist resistance against Patriot Prayer,” reads the posting.

    Photo: Mark Graves

    A spokesperson for Rose City Antifa told It’s Going Down said that the group plans to “show that the community will not allow violent nationalist opportunists to threaten our city and target our people. We will overwhelm them both by force of numbers and commitment to defending our community. Whatever it takes.

    Photos: Mark Graves

    Patriot Prayer founder Joey Gibson noted on Facebook that the rally would be held in an area which allows members to carry handguns

    Photo: Mark Graves

    The report comes days after Gibson said in a Facebook post last week that the “Freedom March” would be held at a location that could allow attendees to carry handguns. Portland prohibits weapons in parks, but guns carried by those with a valid Oregon concealed handgun license are allowed, according to The Oregonian. –The Hill

    “Better bring our own guns too”

    Journalist Tim Pool noted a Reddit discussion last week in the “Anarchism” subreddit in which Antifa members discuss arming themselves ahead of the event. 

    “Only thing I’m worried about is some nut with a gun and a bunch of bullets,” says one user, to which another replied “Better bring our own guns too just to be safe.”

    No wonder authorities are concerned…

    Photo: Mark Graves
    Photo: Mark Graves

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  • Two Knockout Blows To US Imperialism: De-Dollarization & Hypersonic Weapons

    Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    In the current multipolar world in which we live, economic and military factors are decisive in guaranteeing countries their sovereignty. Russia and China seem to be taking this very seriously, committed to the de-dollarization of their economies and the accelerated development of hypersonic weapons.

    The transition phase we are going through, passing from a unipolar global order to a multipolar one, calls for careful observation. It is important to analyze the actions taken by two world powers, China and Russia, in defending and consolidating their sovereignty over the long term. Observing decisions taken by these two countries in recent years, we can discern a twofold strategy. One is economic, the other purely military. In both cases we observe strong cooperation between Moscow and Beijing. The merit of this alliance is paradoxically attributed to the attitude of various US administrations, from George Bush Senior through to Obama. The special relationship between Moscow and Beijing has been forged by a shared experience of Washington’s pressure over the last 25 years. Their shared mission now seems to be to contain the US’s declining imperial power and to shepherd the world from a unipolar world order, with Washington at the center of international relations, to a multipolar world order, with at least three global powers playing a major role in international relations.

    The Sino-Russian strategy has shown itself over the last two decades to consist of two parts: economic clout on the one hand, and military strength on the other, the latter to ward off reckless American behavior. Both Eurasian powers have their respective strengths and weaknesses in this regard. If Russia’s economy can hardly be compared to China’s, China plays second fiddle to Russia’s conventional and nuclear deterrents, and is quite some way behind Moscow in terms of hypersonic weapons. The cooperation between Moscow and Beijing aims to synergize their respective strengths.

    Economic sovereignty

    Both de-dollarization and the development of hypersonic weapons serve the purpose of defending both countries’ sovereignty. Economic sovereignty entails, among other things, elimination of dependence on the US dollar, the abandonment of an international banking system based on the SWIFT payment system, the inclusion and increase in the share of the yuan in the basket of international currencies, the reduction of dollar-denominated public debt, the constant accumulation of gold, and, of course, the elimination of any residual debt with international institutions that are part of the world governance model controlled and manipulated by Washington for its own interests.

    Beijing, rather than seeking to replace the central role of the United States, seeks instead to expand its influence in existing organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO).

    From an economic point of view, the international order is very similar to a duopoly rather than anything multipolar, without forgetting that the European Union has an important role to play should it regain some form of sovereignty by freeing itself from dependence on Washington. For Moscow and Beijing, reducing public debt is one of the best ways of achieving strong economic sovereignty. The Russian Federation has reduced its public debt in relation to GDP from 92% at the beginning of 2000 to 12.9% today. The People’s Republic of China, over 20 years, has increased its public debt from 20% of GDP to around 48%. Compared to the public debt of European countries (Italy and Greece are over 120%, France 100%, the EU average is 85%), Japan (240%) and the United States (110%), Beijing and Moscow have paid particular attention to keeping their accounts in order. Another important strategy involves the steady accumulation of gold in the reserves of these two countries.

    China and Russia are once again trending in an opposite direction to that of the West. Since 2005, Russia and China have accumulated huge amounts of gold, with the clear intention of diversifying their reserves. Both Moscow and Beijing are among the top 10 countries in terms of gold reserves, with an exponential increase over recent years.

    Thanks to a limited public debt, huge quantities of gold, and a progressive reduction in the amount of US government bonds held, Moscow and Beijing have embarked on the path of full economic sovereignty, independent of the US dollar system and strongly protecting themselves against any future financial crises. In this respect, the creation of international financial bodies, to be added to those already existing, has the clear purpose of diluting Washington’s institutional influence over the economic affairs of the world.

    A decided acceleration in this general direction was made following the exclusion of the Islamic Republic of Iran from the SWIFT system, a ringing alarm bell for the Eurasian duo. Despite their reduction of public debt and significant de-dollarization, both countries remain dependent on, and therefore vulnerable to, an economic and financial system that orbits around Washington and London. The workaround has therefore been to create two alternative bank-payment systems to SWIFT. In the case of Russia, there is the so-called system for the transfer of financial messages (SPFS), and in China, the Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payments System (CIPS). Initially conceived as a fallback in the event of exclusion from the SWIFT system, the SPFS and CIPS projects currently strongly intertwine with the energy agreements reached in 2015. Moscow’s selling of liquid natural gas (LNG) to Beijing takes place through an international payment system based on Chinese renminbi that is immediately converted into gold thanks through the innovative mechanism inaugurated at the Shanghai Gold Exchange. It is not excluded that these operations could not directly occur through the SPFS or CIPS systems in the future. Never mind the petrodollar system that is one of the main problems that China and Russia face when dealing with the international financial system. Efforts to progressively switch from USD to Yuan in paying oil commodities have been in place for years especially by Beijing.

    This is an example of how countries like Russia and China have found ways of circumventing the means used to limit their sovereignty. The inclusion of the yuan in the IMF basket of world reserve currencies is associated with the Chinese strategy of supporting the renminbi for export, reducing the share of the US dollar. The strategy adopted by Moscow and Beijing seems to leave Washington unable to stop the protective measures of these two Eurasian powers.

    In practice, we are already beginning to see the effects of this alternative economic world order. The sanctions imposed by Washington and her satraps on Moscow and Tehran are easily circumvented by Russia and Iran, with exchanges denominated in currencies other than the dollar (often gold), or simply through bartering.

    China and Russia, with strongly diversified economies, with treasuries chock full of gold, and with minimal public debt, leave very little room for international speculators to have an effect on their domestic economies with actions that amount to financial terrorism.

    Being able to minimize the impacts and risks of a new financial crisis, or resist the threats and blackmail of the international bodies steered largely by Washington and London, are the key means of being able to chart an economically independent course and ensure national sovereignty.

    The military is the definitive guarantor of sovereignty

    Without a clear and inviolable military sovereignty, the economic measures implemented can become ineffective in the event of war. For this reason, China and Russia continue to implement nuclear-weapons strategies, the ultimate and definitive deterrent. Moscow is at least equal to Washington in this regard, just as Beijing is at least equal to Washington in the economic field. China and the United States have an interconnected economy, but in the event of total war, Washington would suffer the greatest damage. The transfer to China of almost all American industry has a cost, and in the case of a complete rupture in relations between the two countries, Washington is well aware of its economic vulnerability to China.

    In military terms, the strategy for ensuring territorial sovereignty focuses on certain key areas, namely the defense of airspace and maritime borders, and the ability to discourage any nuclear attack by guaranteeing a second-strike capability.

    I have written about this in the past, noting that Russia and China have implemented complex and advanced systems in recent years to close the technological gap with the West, Moscow being at least equal to Washington in this regard, and sharing with Beijing some of its most important innovations. The sale of S-400s to China paves the way for a future joint defense of Eurasian airspace. As the process of union and cooperation between the two countries increases, their respective militaries will have the task of discouraging outside attempts to destabilize the region. This is the reason why the United States sees the sale of the S-400 systems (to Turkey, for example) as a red line not to be crossed. The ability to prevent access to one’s airspace upsets one of Washington’s principal doctrines of war. Without air supremacy and the ability to operate in an uncontested airspace, the American way of war is severely hobbled, it becoming practically impossible for the United States to impose its will militarily.

    The second military focus for the Eurasians concerns the defense of their maritime borders, reflecting Moscow and Beijing’s need to keep the US Navy a good distance from their shores. The development of anti-ship weapons has been a priority for Beijing in recent years, as has been the development of islets in the South China Sea to ensure a constant protection of its borders, given the aggressive presence of the US Navy. Beijing aims to create areas of denial for the US military. Initially keeping US forces about 180 miles from their coast, the future intention is to push them even further back, to a distance of about 700 miles, thus obtaining an effective anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) space that prevents any amphibious assault or a maritime blockade of China’s sea lines of communication.

    In the same way that de-dollarization represents an economic nuclear weapon in the hands of Russia and China, the development of hypersonic weapons is the linchpin of the Sino-Russian alliance’s ability to defend its territorial sovereignty. I wrote two very detailed articles on these amazing weapons, and so did my colleagues at the Strategic Culture Foundation. It is an exciting topic because for the first time in years, Washington has faced the accomplished fact of its geopolitical adversary’s impressive technological progress. Hypersonic weapons have no present weaknesses, and Moscow is the only country in the world capable of producing and using them. With this new capability, the range of action of the Russian Federation reaches unprecedented levels.

    Hypersonic weapons have the crucial advantage of being able to hit mobile or fixed targets with unprecedented speed and power. The ability to obliterate in a matter of minutes a US Navy carrier group or ABM systems in Romania and Poland undoubtedly has a sobering effect on the US military. This is to leave aside the fact that the future S-500 system will have anti-satellite capabilities as well as ballistic-missile defense, and the new SS-28 Sarmat will not be able to be stopped by any current or future ABM system.

    With the use of hypersonic weapons (some already operational) and the sophisticated S-400 and S-500 systems, US naval and air power is being strongly challenged. With nuclear weapons, even the Russian first- and second-strike capabilities become impossible for the US to overcome.

    It is only a matter of time before hypersonic technology is brought to bear by the People’s Republic of China, probably with Moscow’s crucial assistance. The level of mutual trust and cooperation has never been so high between the two countries, and it is natural for them to collaborate militarily and economically, spurred by their common opponent.

    Conclusion

    The challenge for Russia and China is complex and ongoing. The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order is occurring as we speak, enabled by economic and military sovereignty. The challenge for these two Eurasian countries will be to increase their military and economic power, and correct the obvious imbalances in the current world order, without destroying it.

    If this strategy proves successful, it will only be natural to start offering other countries the opportunity to hop onto the Eurasian train, enabling those willing to shift their military, economic and diplomatic leaning from the Atlantic to the Eurasian world. Given the momentous significance of India and Pakistan’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as permanent members, it would seem that Moscow and Beijing are on track to eliminating the central role of the United States in international relations in favor of a multilateralism that will benefit everyone.

  • A Gaunt Tommy Robinson Recounts Horrible UK Prison Experience

    Tommy Robinson told Fox News‘ Tucker Carlson about the conditions he suffered in a UK jail after his May 25th arrest and imprisonment for contempt of court. Robinson was taken into custody while filming and broadcasting from outside a pedophile grooming trial over Facebook Live. 

    The UK activist, whose real name is Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon, was released on bail Wednesday after three London judges ordered him retried on the contempt charge, citing in part the mere five hours between his arrest and imprisonment by a smirking Judge Geoffrey Marson QC. 

    Once a judge heard what happened in the trial, we found so many illegal and wrongdoings within this kangaroo court that then it took another two weeks before I was freed. -Tommy Robinson

    Robinson says that after being initially housed in a prison with a low Muslim population of just 7 percent, he was transferred to another prison with the largest Muslim population in the UK, and housed directly across from the mosque. Robinson tells Tucker: “What I’m known for is criticizing Islam, so there’s been many planned attempts to murder me and kill me in this country.” 

    He said he was placed in solitary confinement where he spent “two months not seeing or speaking to anybody,” during which he lost 40 pounds from a diet of “one tin of tuna and a piece of fruit a day.” 

    I was supposed to be in Her Majesty’s prison service, not Guantanamo Bay. I couldn’t open my windows because I have excrement and spit put through them. I believe this whole piece – and, Tucker, this isn’t the first

    So, every prisoner would walk past my cell window. Everyone, as they walk out. So, when my windows were open, every prisoner is walking past. But the mosque for the prison was directly opposite my cell. -Tommy Robinson

    Robinson said he had to close his window amid sweltering heat spells to avoid all the excrement and spit flying into his cell from passersby. 

    He also said, reluctantly, also admitted that he was diagnosed with a form of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) which he has never spoken about publicly “because I don’t want to insult members of the military who have witnessed war to try and compare to being locked in a cell in solitary confinement.” 

    Robinson also describes his arrest, and claims his lawyer (solicitor) has evidence that authorities said he was being released – only to be jailed hours later: 

    CARLSON: I just want our viewers to understand why this happened to you in the first place. You went to prison in a supposedly free country for expressing unfashionable opinions in public. 

    ROBINSON: There was a court case going on where 29 people were in court for gang raping up to 100 young children. 

    Now, I stood outside of the court and I spoke. And all I had done was read a BBC news article, a BBC news article that is still online now for millions of people to see. And I was taken.

    And everyone would I watch the video. They said for a breach of the peace. They transported me to a police custody. And then, my solicitor contacted the police custody. Then, they emailed my solicitor. So, the solicitor has this email, saying I was being released.

    Then they took me in a van back to the court through the back door. They put me up before a judge. And the media reports have said that I pled guilty. At no point was I even asked whether I was guilty or not guilty.

    Watch:

  • Bill Binney In His Own Words: "A Collaborative Conspiracy To Subvert The US Government"

    Via Jesse’s Cafe Americain,

    “None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe that they are free.”

    – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

    William Edward Binney is a former highly placed intelligence official with the United States National Security Agency (NSA) turned whistleblower who resigned on October 31, 2001, after more than 30 years with the agency.

    He was a high-profile critic of his former employers during the George W. Bush administration, and later criticized the NSA’s data collection policies during the Barack Obama administration.

    In 2016, he said the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election was false.

    – Wikipedia, Bill Binney

    Because of his analysis in conjunction with Veteran Intelligent Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) that has tended to carefully debunk the Russia Russia narrative, Binney has not been given much airtime on certain channels within the mainstream news media.

    I found this recent interview to be very interesting.  I am not qualified or sufficiently well-informed to assess it, but listen to it for yourself and see what you think. It would seem to be worth your time at least.

    He has some good things to say about Donald Trump and draining the swamp. And you know how I feel about his Presidency. So there must be something there for me to find it worth hearing.

    He discussed a number of controversial topics including 9/11, etc.

    Binney certainly has the right pedigree to be an informed whistleblower, and he has never been brought to heel or silenced, so he must have something going for him.  He does seem to be extraordinarily well-informed. I would imagine that if it was possible that he would be charged or discredited or smeared.

  • China Defies Trump, Rejects US Request To Halt Iran Crude Imports

    Though no shocker as we predicted previously, China has refused to cut Iranian oil imports at the United States’ request in a severe blow to White House efforts to intensify pressure and economically isolate the Islamic Republic after the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal. However, Beijing has reportedly agreed not to accelerate purchases

    China, itself a target of ratcheting US economic pressure especially after Wednesday’s shock news that President Trump may impose a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, remains the world’s top crude importer and is Iran’s top buyer.

    Iranian FM Mohammad Javad Zarif and Chinese FM Wang Yi after a bilateral meeting in Beijing, in 2015. Via Reuters

    Bloomberg reported overnight, citing two officials familiar with the negotiations, that limited concessions have been made, however:

    Beijing has, however, agreed not to ramp up purchases of Iranian crude, according to the officials, who asked not to be identified because discussions with China and other countries continue. That would ease concerns that China would work to undermine U.S. efforts to isolate the Islamic Republic by purchasing excess oil.

    China has long been on record as opposing unilateral sanctions and further according to Bloomberg accounted for 35 percent of Iranian exports last month, based on ship tracking data. 

    Meanwhile Iran’s foreign minister welcomed the news: “The role of China in the implementation of JCPOA, in achieving JCPOA, and now in sustaining JCPOA, will be pivotal,” Mohammad Javad Zarif said, according to Reuters.

    The Trump White House currently has teams of negotiators around the world pressuring European and other capitals to cut off trade with Iran — largely unsuccessful to date — in an attempt to cut its oil exports to zero by November 4.

    This has been accompanied by the threat of sanctions for those who don’t comply with US demands to show “significant” progress in reducing Iranian oil purchases. Bloomberg reports that a US team led by Francis Fannon, the assistant secretary of state for the Bureau of Energy Resources, recently visited China to discuss sanctions, confirmed by a State Department spokesman. 

    Crucially, it is as yet unclear how severe a toll this will take on the global oil market, as Bloomberg discusses the variables and unknowns at play:

    The oil market has been speculating about how much of Iran’s exports could be eroded by the U.S. sanctions, with analysts from BMI Research to Mizuho Securities predicting that China might boost its imports of cheap supplies from the state and offset cuts by other nations. Countries including South Korea and Japan are reducing purchases from OPEC’s third-largest producer before the deadline to avoid the risk of buyers losing access to the U.S. financial system.

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, has pledged to fill any supply gaps in the market after Trump’s complaints. That’s helped limit a rally in global benchmark Brent crude, which is trading near $73 a barrel after falling 6.5 percent last month. The London marker is still up about 40 percent from a year earlier.

    Saudi Arabia, for geopolitical reasons, remains a close American oil partner in lobbying for global isolation of Iran at a moment when Iran’s military has threatened to block all regional exports from the Persian Gulf, initiating war games this week near the vital Straight of Hormuz, prompting the Pentagon to deploy additional US warships to the area

    Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told Fox Business Network on Thursday that there’s more pain ahead for Beijing while also attempting to calm fears of potential blowback on US consumers and businesses, assuring the public, “It’s not something that’s going to be cataclysmic”.

    “We have to create a situation where it’s more painful for them to continue their bad practices than it is to reform,” Ross said of ratcheting up the pressure on China and in defense of the president’s escalatory rhetoric on tariffs. 

    “The reason for the tariffs to begin with was to try and convince the Chinese to modify their behavior. Instead they have been retaliating. So the president now feels that it’s potentially time to put more pressure on, in order to modify their behavior,” he said.

    Ross tried to calm fears further by saying Wednesday’s announcement of potentially raising planned tariff’s on $200 billion of Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent would only amount to $50 billion — according to him a negligible fraction of the Chinese economy.

    But the Chinese aren’t seeing it that way, as on Thursday Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi slammed talk of possible 25 percent tariffs: “Instead of achieving one’s own goal by doing this, we believe it will only hurt one’s own interests,” he told reporters at a press conference in Singapore. He continued, “Sixty per cent of Chinese exports to the US are actually made by foreign companies, including American firms in China. Is the US trying to put tariffs on its own companies?

    “For Chinese exports to the US, many of them are no longer produced in the US itself. Is the US administration trying to raise the living cost of its own consumers?” the Chinese FM said.

    FM Wan Yi called for cooler heads to prevail: “While China is ready to talk to anyone ready to talk to us, including the US, this kind of dialogue has to take place on the basis of mutual respect and equality,” he concluded.

    * * *

    While as much as 2.3 million barrels a day of crude from the Persian Gulf state at risk per Trump’s sanctions, the White House has has now as predicted gotten the door slammed by China, while India or Turkey have already hinted they would defy Trump and keep importing Iranian oil. Together three three nations make up about 60 percent of the Persian Gulf state’s exports.

    While next steps remain unclear, the potential outcome for the US isn’t: should China fully pivot away from US exports and replace them with Iranian product, the US trade deficit will resume rising, further adding to the pressure of what is Trump’s biggest economic hurdle: the double US deficits.

    The flipside is that since less Iranian oil exports will go unused, it may provide a solace to the US consumer facing the highest gas prices in four years. However, if the ongoing pipeline bottleneck in the Permian is not resolved soon, said solace will prove to be short-lived.

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Today’s News 3rd August 2018

  • Victor Orban's 5 Tenets To Rebuild Europe

    Excerpted from Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s speech at the 29th Bálványos Summer Open University and Student Camp:

    …I have formulated five tenets for the project of building up Central Europe.

    The first is that every European country has the right to defend its Christian culture, and the right to reject the ideology of multiculturalism.

    Our second tenet is that every country has the right to defend the traditional family model, and is entitled to assert that every child has the right to a mother and a father.

    The third Central European tenet is that every Central European country has the right to defend the nationally strategic economic sectors and markets which are of crucial importance to it.

    The fourth tenet is that every country has the right to defend its borders, and it has the right to reject immigration.

    And the fifth tenet is that every European country has the right to insist on the principle of one nation, one vote on the most important issues, and that this right must not be denied in the European Union.

    In other words, we Central Europeans claim that there is life beyond globalism, which is not the only path. Central Europe’s path is the path of an alliance of free nations.

    *  *  *

    It’s amazing when you consider that exhibiting common sense now makes you a “right-wing extremist”.

    h/t The Burning Platform blog

     

  • Spain: New Gateway To Europe For Mass-Migration

    Authored by Thomas Paul Wiederholen via The Gatestone Institute,

    On July 26, some 800 migrants from sub-Saharan Africa violently stormed the border fence between Morocco, where they were living illegally, and the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. According to Spanish authorities:

    “In an attempt to stop the Guardia Civil getting close to the break-in area, the migrants … [pelted] officers with plastic containers of excrement and quicklime, sticks and stones, as well as using aerosols as flame-throwers.”

    Many people were wounded in the clash, and 602 migrants succeeded in entering Spanish territory.

    Pictured: A section of the border fence between Morocco and the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. (Image source: David Ramos/Getty Images)

    Two weeks earlier, the rescue ship Aquarius, operated by the French NGO Sos Méditerranée, picked up 629 Sub-Saharan migrants off the coast of Libya. After both Italy and Malta refused to take in the migrants, with Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini declaring, “No to human trafficking, no to the business of illegal immigration,” Spain welcomed the ship, and two other vessels carrying illegal migrants, at the port of Valencia.

    Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, the head of Spain’s newly-formed socialist government — which has promised free healthcare to the migrants and says it will investigate every asylum claim individually — said in mid-June: “It is our duty to help avoid a humanitarian catastrophe and offer a safe port to these people, to comply with our human rights obligations.”

    According to a July 27 report about Spain in The Telegraph:

    “The country is now the largest gateway for migrants crossing the Mediterranean to Europe, with 20,992 people landing on its shores so far this year… Arrivals to Italy now trail Spain by almost 3000 – a gap that just a week ago was 200.”

    This, the report says, has completely “overwhelmed” the Spanish coastguard, which is issuing an urgent call for additional resources to help deal with the massive influx.

    Infographic: Spain Overtakes Italy For Migrant Arrivals  | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to a 2017 report by the European Commission:

    “The geographic distribution clearly reveals that a majority of irregular migrants rescued in the Central Mediterranean are most likely not refugees in the sense of the Geneva Convention, given that some 70 % come from countries or regions not suffering from violent conflicts or oppressive regimes.

    Absorbing the large numbers of migrants is not the only problem that Spain has to contend with, however. According to a December 2016 report in the Financial Times, based on confidential reports it obtained, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) accused some charitable organizations that support rescues in the Mediterranean of collaborating with human traffickers. This claim was also made by the pan-European think tank, Gefira, which posted a YouTube video listing the NGOs that have been abetting – regardless of their “high-minded intentions” – the criminal practice of smuggling people into Europe for financial gain.

    According to The Independent:

    “At the last European Council summit in Brussels at the end of June, EU national leaders agreed on the need to set up secure centres to process asylum claims, as well as agreeing a raft of hardline stances on migrants – such as condemning NGO-operated rescue boats operating off the Libyan coast.”

    “Leaders also in principle agreed another proposal for “disembarkation platforms” based in North Africa where EU officials could process asylum claims outside EU territory …”

    However, despite the agreement between EU members, “no north African country has yet agreed to host migrant screening centres to process refugee claims,” according to Dimitris Avramopoulos, the European commissioner for migration.

    The Speaker of Egypt’s House of Representatives, Ali Abdel Aal, told the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag on July 1, “EU reception facilities for migrants in Egypt would violate the laws and constitution of our country.”

    Abd al-Aal recalled that a high number of migrants are already living in his country. “We already have about ten million refugees from Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Palestine, Sudan, Somalia and other countries,” said Ab al-Aal. In Egypt, all refugees have a right to health care and education. “This means that our capacities are already exhausted today. It is therefore important that Egypt receives support from Germany and the EU.”

    In an interview with the German news outlet Bild on July 19, Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj said:

    “We have created refugee shelters for tens of thousands of people, but there are hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants in our country. This has heavily impaired the security situation. They include terrorists, criminals, and human traffickers who do not care about human rights. It’s horrible. In order to improve the situation, we must fight these structures. But we also need more international help for this. It begins with our country’s borders. It is imperative that they be better controlled.”

    “We are strictly against Europe officially placing illegal migrants who are no longer wanted in the EU in our country. We also won’t agree on any deals with EU money about taking in more illegal migrants. The EU should rather talk to the countries that people are coming from and should put pressure on these countries instead. There won’t be any deals with us.

    “I am very surprised that while nobody in Europe wants to take in migrants anymore they are asking us to take in further hundreds of thousands.”

    In an article for Gatestone in March 2018, Uzay Bulut sheds light on why the migrant crisis has become a problem that many European governments are beginning to recognize: “demographic jihad.”

    Bulut cites Turkish MP Alparslan Kavaklıoğlu, a member of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), and the head of the parliament’s Security and Intelligence Commission, who stated:

    “… Europe is going through a time that is out of the ordinary. Its population is declining and aging… So, people coming from outside get the jobs there. But Europe has this problem. All of the newcomers are Muslim. From Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey. Those who come from these places are Muslim. It is now at such a level that the most popular name in Brussels, Belgium is Mohammed… [If this trend continues], the Muslim population will outnumber the Christian population in Europe… Europe will be Muslim. We will be effective there, Allah willing. I am sure of that.”

    The Turkish leadership’s assessment echoes a sermon delivered at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on September 11, 2015 (the 14th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks) by Imam Sheikh Muhammad Ayed, who stated, in part:

    “They [Westerners] have lost their fertility… We will give them fertility! We will breed children with them, because we shall conquer their countries. Whether you like it or not, oh Germans, oh Americans, oh French, Oh Italians, and all those like you. Take the refugees! We shall soon collect them in the name of the coming Caliphate… We will say to you: These are our sons. Send them or we will send our armies to you.”

    The act of migration has a strong basis in the Qu’ran. For example, Verse 9:20states:

    “The ones who have believed, emigrated and striven in the cause of Allah with their wealth and their lives are greater in rank in the sight of Allah. And it is those who are the attainers [of success].”

    Verse 22:58 states:

    “And those who emigrated for the cause of Allah and then were killed or died – Allah will surely provide for them a good provision. And indeed, it is Allah who is the best of providers.”

    None of the above, however, appears to have put a dent in the policies or ideology of the left-wing parties supporting the new Spanish government. On June 29, following the European summit, Sanchez tweeted:

    “…The EU is beginning to move in the right direction: to give a European perspective to a European challenge such as migration.”

    Sanchez was correct, but for all the wrong reasons. The “European perspective” that he and fellow EU members should be embracing is that of democracy and freedom, not one that allows the unfettered entry of millions of penniless and unskilled illegal migrants, among whom are radical Islamists whose beliefs are antithetical to European values.

    In case Sanchez has not been paying attention, the influx of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa has been taking a serious toll on Europe. According to a recent Heritage Foundation report:

    “Over the past four years, 16 percent of Islamist plots in Europe featured asylum seekers or refugees… Radicalization of plotters generally occurred abroad although in the most recent plots, more commonly within Europe itself. Europe’s response to migration flows has been inadequate and inadvertently increased the terrorist threat dramatically…”

    In the book Europe All Inclusive by former Czech President Václav Klaus, co-authored by the Arabic-speaking economist Jiří Weigl, the authors sum up the role that the Left plays in the migrant crisis:

    “Europe, and especially its ‘integrated’ part, is riddled with hypocrisy, pseudo-humanism and other dubious concepts. The most dangerous of them are the currently fashionable, and ultimately suicidal, ideologies of multiculturalism and humanrightism. Such ideologies push millions of people towards resignation when it comes to concepts like home, motherland, nation and state. These ideologies promote the notion that migration is a human right, and that the right to migrate leads to further rights and entitlements including social welfare hand-outs for migrants… Europe is weakened by the leftist utopia of trying to transform a continent that was once proud of its past into an inefficient solidaristic state, turning its inhabitants from citizens into dependent clients.”

    As the “largest gateway” for migrants now entering Europe, Spain has a particularly great responsibility to wake up to and deal with reality.

  • "Leave Immediately Or You Will Pay" – China Sends Radio Warnings To Philippines

    China is increasingly issuing radio warnings to the Armed Forces of the Philippines operating near the heavily contested and militarized islands in the South China Sea, The Associated Press (AP) reported Tuesday.

    The warnings are much different from before, as officials believe the radio transmissions are coming directly from China’s artificial islands, where Beijing has recently deployed jamming technology, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and even heavy bombers.

    According to the AP, a new Philippine government report showed that in the second half of 2017, Philippine military aircraft received 46 Chinese radio warnings while on patrol in the South China Sea near the Spratly Islands.

    The radio warnings were “meant to step up their tactics to our pilots conducting maritime air surveillance in the West Philippine Sea,” the report said, which used the Philippine name for the South China Sea.

    Earlier this year, Philippine officials voiced their concern over the aggressive radio communications with Chinese counterparts in Manila, which primarily focused on resolving territorial disputes in the region, according to government officials who spoke on condition of anonymity with the AP because the knowledge they shared was not yet available in the public domain.

    The AP says that the threatening Chinese radio messages are a new phenomenon and emerged after China transformed seven disputed reefs into militarized islands, located near Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan (a region that military strategists considered the Powderkeg of Asia).

    The report specifies radio communications were being transmitted from Chinese coast guard ships in the last several years but now are relayed from Beijing-held artificial islands, where military-grade communications and surveillance equipment have been installed along with missile defense systems.

    “Our ships and aircraft have observed an increase in radio queries that appear to originate from new land-based facilities in the South China Sea,” Commander Clay Doss, a public affairs officer for the US 7th Fleet, told the AP.

    “These communications do not affect our operations,” he added, noting that when communications with foreign militaries are this absurd, “those issues are addressed by appropriate diplomatic and military channels.”

    A Philippine Air Force plane on patrol near the disputed islands received a warning message in Janurary when it was threatened by Chinese forces that it was “endangering the security of the Chinese reef. Leave immediately and keep off to avoid misunderstanding,” according to the Philippine government report.

    Chinese forces also said: “Philippine military aircraft, I am warning you again, leave immediately or you will pay the possible consequences.” The Filipino pilot later “sighted two flare warning signals from the reef,” said the report, which was identified as the Beijing-held island of Gaven Reef.

    In another incident, Chinese forces told two Philippine military aircraft carrying the country’s senior defense and military leaders, along with top secuity officials and 40 journlaist, to turn around immediatly to avoid any mishap. The pilots responded by saying they were over Phillipine territory, said the report.

    Despite many Chinese warnings threatening the Philipines, Washington has made it clear that it will maintain and increase an active presence in the region.

    “International law allows us to operate here, allows us to fly here, allows us to train here, allows us to sail here, and that’s what we’re doing, and we’re going to continue to do that,” Lt. Commander Tim Hawkins told the AP in February.

    The Pentagon said: “The United States military has had a lot of experience in the Western Pacific taking down small islands,”Lt. General Kenneth McKenzie, the director of the Joint Staff, informed reporters in may, adding: “It’s just a fact.”

    As China and its militarized islands in the South Sea prepare for a military conflict, we must ask the very simple question: What could possibly go wrong?

  • Paul Craig Roberts: Who Does America Really Belong To?

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Not to Americans…

    The housing market is now apparently turning down. Consumer incomes are limited by jobs offshoring and the ability of employers to hold down wages and salaries.  The Federal Reserve seems committed to higher interest rates – in my view to protect the exchange value of the US dollar on which Washington’s power is based.  The arrogant fools in Washington, with whom I spent a quarter century, have, with their bellicosity and sanctions, encouraged nations with independent foreign and economic policies to drop the use of the dollar.  This takes some time to accomplish, but Russia, China, Iran, and India are apparently committed to dropping  or reducing the use of the US dollar. 

    A drop in the world demand for dollars can be destabilizing of the dollar’s value unless the central banks of Japan, UK, and EU continue to support the dollar’s exchange value, either by purchasing dollars with their currencies or by printing offsetting amounts of their currencies to keep the dollar’s value stable.  So far they have been willing to do both.  However, Trump’s criticisms of Europe has soured Europe against Trump, with a corresponding weakening of the willingness to cover for the US.  Japan’s colonial status vis-a-vis the US since the Second World War is being stressed by the hostility that Washington is introducing into Japan’s part of the world.  The orchestrated Washington tensions with North Korea and China do not serve Japan, and those Japanese politicians who are not heavily on the US payroll are aware that Japan is being put on the line for American, not Japanese interests.

    If all this leads, as is likely, to the rise of more independence among Washington’s vassals, the vassals are likely to protect themselves from the cost of their independence by removing themselves from the dollar and payments mechanisms associated with the dollar as world currency.  This means a drop in the value of the dollar that the Federal Reserve would have to prevent by raising interest rates on dollar investments in order to keep the demand for dollars up sufficiently to protect its value.

    As every realtor knows, housing prices boom when interest rates are low, because the lower the rate the higher the price of the house that the person with the mortgage can afford.  But when interest rates rise, the lower the price of the house that a buyer can afford. 

    If we are going into an era of higher interest rates, home prices and sales are going to decline.

    The “on the other hand” to this analysis is that if the Federal Reserve loses control of the situation and the debts associated with the current value of the US dollar become a problem that can collapse the system, the Federal Reserve is likely to pump out enough new money to preserve the debt by driving interest rates back to zero or negative. 

    Would this save or revive the housing market?  Not if the debt-burdened American people have no substantial increases in their real income.  Where are these increases likely to come from? Robotics are about to take away the jobs not already lost to jobs offshoring. Indeed, despite President Trump’s emphasis on “bringing the jobs back,” Ford Motor Corp. has just announced that it is moving the production of the Ford Focus from Michigan to China.  

    Apparently it never occurs to the executives running America’s offshored corporations that potential customers in America working in part time jobs stocking shelves in Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe’s, etc., will not have enough money to purchase a Ford.  Unlike Henry Ford, who had the intelligence to pay workers good wages so they could buy Fords, the executives of American companies today sacrifice their domestic market and the American economy to their short-term “performance bonuses” based on low foreign labor costs.

    What is about to happen in America today is that the middle class, or rather those who were part of it as children and expected to join it, are going to be driven into manufactured “double-wide homes” or single trailers.  The MacMansions will be cut up into tenements.  Even the high-priced rentals along the Florida coast will find a drop in demand as real incomes continue to fall. The $5,000-$20,000 weekly summer rental rate along Florida’s panhandle 30A will not be sustainable.  The speculators who are in over their heads in this arena are due for a future shock.

    For years I have reported on the monthly payroll jobs statistics.  The vast majority of new jobs are in lowly paid nontradable domestic services, such as waitresses and bartenders, retail clerks, and ambulatory health care services. In the payroll jobs report for June, for example, the new jobs, if they actually exist, are concentrated in these sectors: administrative and waste services, health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and local government.

    High productivity, high value-added manufactured jobs shrink in the US as they are offshored to Asia.  High productivity, high value-added professional service jobs, such as research, design, software engineering, accounting, legal research, are being filled by offshoring or by foreigners brought into the US on work visas with the fabricated and false excuse that there are no Americans qualified for the jobs.

    America is a country hollowed out by the short-term greed of the ruling class and its shills in the economics profession and in Congress.  Capitalism only works for the few. It no longer works for the many.

    On national security grounds Trump should respond to Ford’s announcement of offshoring the production of Ford Focus to China by nationalizing Ford.  Michigan’s payrolls and tax base will decline and employment in China will rise. We are witnessing a major US corporation enabling China’s rise over the United States. Among the external costs of Ford’s contribution to China’s GDP is Trump’s increased US military budget to counter the rise in China’s power.

    Trump should also nationalize Apple, Nike, Levi, and all the rest of the offshored US global corporations who have put the interest of a few people above the interests of the American work force and the US economy.  There is no other way to get the jobs back.  Of course, if Trump did this, he would be assassinated.  

    America is ruled by a tiny percentage of people who constitute a treasonous class. These people have the money to purchase the government, the media, and the economics profession that shills for them. This greedy traitorous interest group must be dealt with or the United States of America and the entirety of its peoples are lost.

    In her latest blockbuster book, Collusion, Nomi Prins documents how central banks and international monetary institutions have used the 2008 financial crisis to manipulate markets and the fiscal policies of governments to benefit the super-rich.

    These manipulations are used to enable the looting of countries such as Greece and Portugal by the large German and Dutch banks and the enrichment via inflated financial asset prices of shareholders at the expense of the general population.

    One would think that repeated financial crises would undermine the power of financial interests, but the facts are otherwise. As long ago as November 21, 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt wrote to Col. House that “the real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the larger centers has owned the Government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson.”

    Thomas Jefferson said that “banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies” and that “if the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks . . . will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”

    The shrinkage of the US middle class is evidence that Jefferson’s prediction is coming true.

  • Debunking 8 Myths About AI In The Workplace

    The interplay between technology and work has always been a hot topic.

    While technology has typically created more jobs than it has destroyed on a historical basis, Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes that this context rarely stops people from believing that things are “different” this time around.

    In this case, it’s the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) that is being hotly debated by the media and expert commentators. Although there is no doubt that AI will be a transformative force in business, the recent attention on the subject has also led to many common misconceptions about the technology and its anticipated effects.

    DISPROVING COMMON MYTHS ABOUT AI

    Today’s infographic comes to us from Raconteur and it helps paint a clearer picture about the nature of AI, while attempting to debunk various myths about AI in the workplace.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

    AI is going to be a seismic shift in business – and it’s expected to create a $15.7 trillion economic impact globally by 2030.

    But understandably, monumental shifts like this tend to make people nervous, resulting in many unanswered questions and misconceptions about the technology and what it will do in the workplace.

    DEMYSTIFYING MYTHS

    Here are the eight debunked myths about AI:

    1. Automation will completely displace employees
    Truth: 70% of employers see AI in supporting humans in completing business processes. Meanwhile, only 11% of employers believe that automation will take over the work found in jobs and business processes to a “great extent”.

    2. Companies are primarily interested in cutting costs with AI
    Truth: 84% of employers see AI as obtaining or sustaining a competitive advantage, and 75% see AI as a way to enter into new business areas. 63% see pressure to reduce costs as a reason to use AI.

    3. AI, machine learning, and deep learning are the same thing 
    Truth: AI is a broader term, while machine learning is a subset of AI that enables “intelligence” by using training algorithms and data. Deep learning is an even narrower subset of machine learning inspired by the interconnected neurons of the brain.

    4. Automation will eradicate more jobs than it creates 
    Truth: At least according to one recent study by Gartner, there will be 1.8 million jobs lost to AI by 2020 and 2.3 million jobs created. How this shakes out in the longer term is much more debatable.

    5. Robots and AI are the same thing
    Truth: Even though there is a tendency to link AI and robots, most AI actually works in the background and is unseen (think Amazon product recommendations). Robots, meanwhile, can be “dumb” and just automate simple physical processes.

    6. AI won’t affect my industry 
    Truth: AI is expected to have a significant impact on almost every industry in the next five years.

    7. Companies implementing AI don’t care about workers
    Truth: 65% of companies pursuing AI are also investing in the reskilling of current employees.

    8. High productivity equals higher profits and less employment
    Truth: AI and automation will increase productivity, but this could also translate to lower prices, higher wages, higher demand, and employment growth.

    Still worried about AI’s impact on your career?

    Here’s a list of 10 skills that will help you survive the rise of the robots in the workplace.

  • The Real "Fake News" From Government Media

    Authored by Scott Lazarowitz via ActivistPost.com,

    Facebook has announced its campaign against “fake news.” But, according to some workers’ own admission, conservatives are being censored.

    And Google also wants to censor “fake news.” But Google also was shown to treat conservative websites, but not liberal ones, as “fake news.”

    The same thing seems to be going on with Twitter. And again, conservatives are complaining.

    But who is to decide what is “fake news”? Who will be Facebook and Google’s sources for realnews?

    In 2013 the U.S. Senate considered a new a shield law to protect journalists. In the lawmakers’ attempts to narrow the definition of a journalist, some Senators including Sen. Dianne Feinstein only wanted to include reporters with “professional qualifications.”

    “Professional” publications such as the New York Times, the “Paper of Record,” would apparently be protected.

    So one can conclude that the New York Times can be a source of “real” news for Facebook or Google, despite all the Times‘ errorsscrew-ups, and corrections, right?

    According to one NYT former reporter, the Times has been a “propaganda megaphone” for war. Also a partner with the CIA to promote Obama’s reelection bid.

    Or CNN, “The Most Trusted Name in News” which wins its own “fake news” awards with its errorsscrew-ups and corrections.

    During the 2016 U.S. Presidential campaign, there were collusions between then-CNN contributor and DNC operative Donna Brazile, who was outed by WikiLeaks in her giving candidate Hillary Clinton questions in advance for a CNN Town Hall.

    Other emails that were leaked to WikiLeaks informed us that reporters obediently followed instructions from the Hillary Clinton campaign on how to cover the campaign. These include reporters from the New York Times such as Maggie Haberman who said the campaign would “tee up stories for us,” and Mark Leibovich, who would email Clinton flunky Jennifer Palmieri for editing recommendations.

    And Politico reporter Glenn Thrush asked Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta for approval of stories on Clinton. Thrush was then hired by the New York Times. After Thrush was then suspended from NYT over allegations of sexual misconduct, the Times ended the suspension, stating that while Thrush had “acted offensively,” he would be trained to behave himself. Hmm.

    But all this from the 2016 campaign reminded me of the “JournoLists,” the group of news journalists who participated in a private forum online from 2007-2010. The forum was to enable news reporters to discuss news reporting and political issues in private and with candor, but also, it was revealed, to discuss ways to suppress negative news on then-2008 presidential candidate Barack Obama.

    For instance, according to the Daily Caller, some members of the group discussed their criticism of a 2008 debate in which Obama was questioned on his association with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright. The Nation‘s Richard Kim wrote that George Stephanopoulos was “being a disgusting little rat snake.” The Guardian‘s Michael Tomasky wrote that “we all have to do what we can to kill ABC and this idiocy.”

    Spencer Ackerman, then with the Washington Independent and now of the Daily Beast, wrote, “If the right forces us all to either defend Wright or tear him down, no matter what we choose, we lose the game they’ve put upon us. Instead, take one of them — Fred Barnes, Karl Rove, who cares — and call them racists.”

    The Nation‘s Chris Hayes wrote, “Our country disappears people. It tortures people. It has the blood of as many as one million Iraqi civilians — men, women, children, the infirmed — on its hands. You’ll forgive me if I just can’t quite dredge up the requisite amount of outrage over Barack Obama’s pastor.”

    (But has Hayes criticized Obama’s assassination program, or Obama’s bombings or the blood on Obama’s hands? Just askin’)

    In an open letter, according to the Daily Caller, several of the JournoList members called the ABC debate a “revolting descent into tabloid journalism,” because of the moderators’ legitimate questions on Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

    So, in today’s Bizarro World, objectively questioning a candidate on a controversial issue is now “tabloid journalism,” but making things up like “Trump-Russia collusions” and repeating the propaganda over and over – that’s not “tabloid journalism.”

    The JournoLists also included reporters from Time, the Baltimore Sun, the New Republic, Politico, and Huffington Post.

    Now, are those the sources of “real news” that Facebook, Google and Twitter want to rely upon to combat “fake news”?

    And who exactly were the “JournoLists” promoting? Obama?

    Regarding Obama’s own crackdown on actual journalism, Fox News reporter James Rosen was accused by the feds of being a “co-conspirator” with State Department leaker Stephen Jin-Woo Kim in violating the Espionage Act.  Rosen’s correspondences with Kim were seized by Obama’s FBI, along with Rosen’s personal email and phone records. The FBI also used records to track Rosen’s visits to the State Department.

    Apparently, then-attorney general Eric Holder went “judge-shopping” to find a judge who would approve subpoenaing Rosen’s private records, after two judges rejected the request.

    Commenting on James Rosen and the FBI’s abuse of powers, Judge Andrew Napolitano observed that “this is the first time that the federal government has moved to this level of taking ordinary, reasonable, traditional, lawful reporter skills and claiming they constitute criminal behavior.”

    And there was the Obama administration’s going after then-CBS News investigative reporter Sharyl Attkisson, possibly for her reporting on Benghazi and Fast and Furious. Attkisson finally resigned from CBS news out of frustration with the company’s alleged pro-Obama bias and with CBS’s apparently not airing her subsequent reports.

    In 2013 CBS News confirmed that Attkisson’s computers had been “accessed by an unauthorized, external, unknown party on multiple occasions.” In 2015 Attkisson sued the Obama administration, claiming to have evidence which proves the computer intrusions were connected to the Obama DOJ.

    In Attkisson’s latest lawsuit update, after her computer was returned to her following the DOJ Inspector General’s investigation, her forensics team now believes her computer’s hard drive was replaced by a different one.

    Now back to “fake news.”

    After Donald Trump locked up the Republican Presidential nomination in May, 2016, there were significant events in the next two months. Fusion GPS and former British spy Christopher Steele colluded to get opposition research on behalf of Hillary Clinton, the FBI applied for FISA warrant to spy on Trump campaign associates, and Donald Trump, Jr., Paul Manafort and Jared Kushner had a possibly set-up meeting with a Russian lawyer at Trump Tower.

    Also within that same period, the DNC claimed that its computers were hacked but the DNC wouldn’t let FBI investigate. The Washington Post published an article claiming, with no evidence presented, that “Russian government hackers” took DNC opposition research on Trump.

    It was very shortly after the November, 2016 Presidential election that the Washington Postpublished an article on a “Russian propaganda effort to spread ‘fake news’ during the election.” To escalate the media’s censorship campaign perhaps?

    The campaign against “fake news” coincided with Obama minions at FBI, DOJ and CIA apparently panicking over a possible Trump presidency and their allegedly abusing their powers to attempt to take down Trump.

    So the news media seem to be on a crusade to fabricate “Trump-Russia collusions” and repeat it over and over, and to vilify, ignore and squash actual investigative research and reporting on what exactly the FBI and DOJ bureaucrats have been doing. Call such real investigative reporting “fake news,” “conspiracy theory,” and so forth.

    In the end, Facebook, Twitter and Google might want to reconsider relying on the mainstream news media led by the New York Times, the Washington Post and CNN, and instead include citizen journalists and non-government-sycophant media to provide news and information.

    UCLA law professor Eugene Volokh has noted that the Founders generally viewed the freedom of the Press to apply to every citizen to print, publish or express accounts of events. We really need to highlight that kind of old-fashioned, honest journalism.

  • The Student Debt Crisis Is Hitting These Ten States The Hardest

    The student debt crisis in America continues to expand. According to the latest figures from the New York Federal Reserve, the total Student Loans Owned and Securitized, Outstanding (SLOAS) grew to over $1.52 trillion in July. Although the debt crisis affects millions of Americans, the debt is not spread evenly across the country, as millennials in some states are much more likely to be weighed down by student loans.

    A new study by personal finance website GOBankingRates revealed that graduates in the northeastern states have the heaviest financial burdens. Of these states, millennials in New Hampshire have outstanding student loans around $36,367 — that is the highest rate in the country, according to the Institute for College Access and Success’s 12th Annual Student Debt report.

    Geographically, GOBankingRates noticed an alarming trend of northeastern states made the top ten list for highest average debt and highest percentage of graduates with debt. As shown below, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania made the list while Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts and Rhode Island were among the highest for average debt.

    States With the Highest Average Student Debt

    1. New Hampshire Average student loan debt: $36,367 Percent of graduates with debt: 74%

    2. Pennsylvania Average student loan debt: Percent of graduates with debt: 68%

    3. Connecticut Average student loan debt: $35,494 Percent of graduates with debt: 60%

    4. Delaware Average student loan debt: $33,838 Percent of graduates with debt: 63%

    5. Minnesota Average student loan debt: $31,915 Percent of graduates with debt: 68%

    6. Massachusetts Average student loan debt: $31,563 Percent of graduates with debt: 60%

    7. South Dakota Average student loan debt: $31,362 Percent of graduates with debt: 75%

    8. Maine Average student loan debt: $31,295 Percent of graduates with debt: 55%

    9. Alabama Average student loan debt: $31,275 Percent of graduates with debt: 50%

    10. Rhode Island Average student loan debt: $31,217 Percent of graduates with debt: 61%

    It makes sense that the Northeast states are carrying higher student loan debt, according to Adam Minksy a lawyer specializing in student loan law. “Certain states have less robust, affordable state education systems,” Minsky tells CNBC.

    States like California and Florida have major state universities systems that are affordable, so many millennials chose those institutions with the least amount of debt, Minsky added.

    GOBankingRates also noticed states like Utah, New Mexico, and California had the lowest percentage of graduates with debt at just 43 percent and the lowest average debt around $20,000. In fact, the states with the second- and third-lowest percentages of graduates with debt, Wyoming and Arizona, were also both among the ten states with the lowest debt.

    As a slowdown in the economy nears, high school graduates and their families are starting to discover that the debt ball and chain via student loans is not a winning strategy when it comes to picking a college. “I was told by everyone to go to the best school you can get into, even if it’s more expensive, it will be a good investment,” Minsky says. “Now we’re starting to see a shift toward making responsible financial choices about college.”

    * * *

    Heavily indebted millennials might have a shot at paying off their student debt via a new game show on TruTV called “Paid Off.” Contestants must have lots of student loans and could have the chance to answer trivia questions – and if they win, the game show will pay off their student debt.

  • Nomi Prins: The Disrupter-In-Chief & Five Financials Uncertainties For 2018

    Authored by Nomi Prins via TomDispatch.com,

    The Entropy Wars – Five Financial Uncertainties of 2018 (So Far)

    Here we are in the middle of the second year of Donald Trump’s presidency and if there’s one thing we know by now, it’s that the leader of the free world can create an instant reality-TV show on geopolitical steroids at will. True, he’s not polished in his demeanor, but he has an unerring way of instilling the most uncertainty in any situation in the least amount of time.

    Whether through executive orders, tweets, cable-news interviews, or rallies, he regularly leaves diplomacy in the dust, while allegedly delivering for a faithful base of supporters who voted for him as the ultimate anti-diplomat. And while he’s at it, he continues to take a wrecking ball to the countless political institutions that litter the Acela Corridor. Amid all the tweeted sound and fury, however, the rest of us are going to have to face the consequences of Donald Trump getting his hands on the economy.

    According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, entropy is “a process of degradation or running down or a trend to disorder.” With that in mind, perhaps the best way to predict President Trump’s next action is just to focus on the path of greatest entropy and take it from there.

    Let me do just that, while exploring five key economic sallies of the Trump White House since he took office and the bleakness and chaos that may lie ahead as the damage to the economy and our financial future comes into greater focus.

    1. Continuous Banking Deregulation

    When Trump ran for the presidency, he tapped into a phenomenon that was widely felt but generally misunderstood: a widespread anger at Wall Street and corporate cronyism. Upon taking office, he promptly redirected that anger exclusively at the country’s borders and its global economic allies and adversaries.

    His 2016 election campaign had promised not to “let Wall Street get away with murder” and to return the banking environment to one involving less financial risk to the country. His goal and that of the Republicans as a party, at least theoretically, was to separate bank commercial operations (deposits and lending) from their investment operations (securities creation, trading, and brokerage) by bringing back a modernized version of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933.

    Fast forward to May 18, 2017 when Trump’s deregulatory-minded treasury secretary, “foreclosure king” Steven Mnuchin, faced a congressional panel and took a 180 on the subject. He insisted that separating people’s everyday deposits from the financial-speculation operations of the big banks, something that had even made its way into the Republican platform, was a total nonstarter.

    Instead, congressional Republicans, with White House backing, promptly took aim at the watered-down version of the Glass-Steagall Act passed in the Obama years, the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. In it, the Democrats had already essentially capitulated to Wall Street by riddling the act with a series of bank-friendly loopholes. They had, however, at least ensured that banks would set aside more of their own money in the event of another Great Recession-like crisis and provide a strategy or “living will” in advance for that possibility, while creating a potent consumer-protection apparatus, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Say goodbye to all of that in the Trump era.

    Dubbed “the Choice Act” — officially the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act — the new Republican bill removed the “living will” requirement for mid-sized banks, thereby allowing the big banks a gateway to do the same. When Trump signed the bill, he said that it was “the next step in America’s unprecedented economic comeback. There’s never been a comeback like we’ve made. And one day, the fake news is going to report it.”

    In fact, thanks to the Trump (and Republican) flip-flop, banks don’t need to defend themselves anymore. The president went on to extol the untold virtues of his pick to run the CFPB, meant to keep consumers from being duped (or worse) by their own banks. Before Trump got involved, it had won $12 billion in settlements from errant banks for the citizens it championed. 

    However, Kathy Kraninger, a former Homeland Security official tapped by Trump to run the entity, has no experience in banking or consumer protection. His selection follows perfectly in the path of current interim head Mick Mulvaney (also the head of the Office of Management and Budget). All you need to know about him is that he once derided the organization as a “sick, sad” joke. As its director, he’s tried to choke the life out of it by defunding it

    In this fashion, such still-evolving deregulatory actions reflect the way Trump’s anti-establishment election campaign has turned into a full-scale program aimed at increasing the wealth and power of the financial elites, while decreasing their responsibility to us. Don’t expect a financial future along such lines to look pretty. Think entropy.

    2. Tensions Rise in the Auto Wars

    Key to Trump’s economic vision is giving his base a sense of camaraderie by offering them rallying cries from a bygone era of nationalism and isolationism. In the same spirit, the president has launched a supposedly base-supporting policy of imposing increasingly random and anxiety-provoking trade tariffs.

    Take, for instance, the automotive sector, which such tariffs are guaranteed to negatively impact. It is ground zero for many of his working-class voters and a key focus of the president’s entropic economic policies. When he was campaigning, he promised many benefits to auto workers (and former auto workers) and they proved instrumental in carrying him to victory in previously “blue” rust-belt states. In the Oval Office, he then went on to tout what he deemed personal victories in getting Ford to move a plant back to the U.S. from Mexico while pressuring Japanese companies to make more cars in Michigan.

    He also began disrupting the industry with a series of on-again-off-again, imposed or sometimes merely threatened tariffs, including on steel, that went against the wishes of the entire auto sector. Recently, Jennifer Thomas of the industry’s main lobbying group, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, assured a Commerce Department hearing that “the opposition is widespread and deep because the consequences are alarming.”

    Indeed, the Center for Automotive Research has reported that a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts (something the president has threatened but not yet followed through upon against the European Union, Canada, and Mexico) could reduce the number of domestic vehicle sales by up to two million units and might wipe out more than 714,000 jobs here. Declining demand for cars, whose prices could rise between $455 and $6,875, depending on the type of tariff, in the face of a Trump vehicle tax, would hurt American and foreign manufacturers operating in the U.S. who employ significant numbers of American workers.

    Though President Trump’s threat to slap high tariffs on imported autos and auto parts from the European Union is now in limbo due to a recent announcement of ongoing negotiations, he retains the right if he gets annoyed by… well, anything… to do so. The German auto industry alone employs more than 118,000 people in the U.S. and, if invoked, such taxes would increase its car prices and put domestic jobs instantly at risk.

    3. The Populist Tyranny of the Trump Tax Cuts

    President Trump has been particularly happy about his marquee corporate tax “reform” bill, assuring his base that it will provide jobs and growth to American workers, while putting lots of money in their pockets. What it’s actually done, however, is cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, providing corporations with tons of extra cash. Their predictable reaction has not been to create jobs and raise wages, but to divert that bonanza to their own coffers via share buybacks in which they purchase their own stock. That provides shareholders with bigger, more valuable pieces of a company, while boosting earnings and CEO bonuses.

    Awash in tax-cut cash, American companies have announced a record $436.6 billion worth of such buybacks so far in 2018, close to double the record $242.1 billion spent in that way in all of 2017. Among other things, this ensures less tax revenue to the U.S. Treasury, which in turn means less money for social programs or simply for providing veterans with proper care.

    As it is, large American companies only pay an average effective tax rate of 18% (a figure that will undoubtedly soon drop further). Last year, they only contributed 9% of the tax receipts of the government and that’s likely to drop further to a record low this year, sending the deficit soaring. In other words, in true Trumpian spirit, corporations will be dumping the fabulous tax breaks they got directly onto the backs of other Americans, including the president’s base.

    Meanwhile, some of the crew who authored such tax-policies, creating a $1.5 trillion corporate tax give-away, have already moved on to bigger and better things, landing lobbying positions at the very corporations they lent such a hand to and which can now pay them even more handsomely. For the average American worker, on the other hand, wages have not increased. Indeed, between the first and second quarters of 2018 real wages dropped by 1.8%after the tax cuts were made into law. Trump hasn’t touted that or what it implies about our entropic future.

    4. Trade Wars, Currency Wars, and the Conflicts to Come

    If everyone takes their toys to another playground, the school bully has fewer kids to rough up. And that’s exactly the process Trump’s incipient trade wars seem to be accelerating — the hunt for new playgrounds and alliances by a range of major countries that no longer trust the U.S. government to behave in a consistent manner.

    So far, the U.S. has already slapped $34 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese imports. China has retaliated in kind. Playing a dangerous global poker game, Trump promptly threatened to raise that figure to at least $200 billion. China officially ignored that threat, only inciting the president’s ire further. In response, he recently announced that he was “willing to slap tariffs on every Chinese good imported to the U.S. should the need arise.” Speaking to CNBC’s Squawk Box host Joe Kernen on July 20th, he boasted, “I’m ready to go to 500 [billion dollars].”

    That’s the equivalent of nearly every import the Chinese sent into the U.S. last year. In contrast, the U.S. exports only $129.9 billion in products to China, which means the Chinese can’t respond in kind, but they can target new markets, heighten the increasingly tense relations between the world’s two economic superpowers, and even devalue their currency to leverage their products more effectively on global markets.

    Global trade alliances were already moving away from a full-scale reliance on the U.S. even before Donald Trump began his game of tariffs. That trend has only gained traction in the wake of his economic actions, including his tariffs on a swath of Mexican, Canadian, and European imports. Recently, two major American allies turned a slow dance toward economic cooperation into a full-scale embrace. On July 17th, the European Union and Japan agreed on a mega-trade agreement that will cover one-third of the products made by the world economy.

    Meanwhile, China has launched more than 100 new business projects in Brazil alone, usurping what was once a U.S. market, investing a record $54 billion in that country. It is also preparing to increase its commitments not just to Brazil, but to Russia, India, China, and South Africa (known collectively as the BRICS countries), investing $14.7 billion in South Africa ahead of an upcoming BRICS summit there. In other words, Donald Trump is lending a disruptively useful hand to the creation of an economic world in which the U.S. will no longer be as central an entity.

    Ultimately, tariffs and the protectionist policies that accompany them will hurt consumers and workers alike, increasing prices and reducing demand. They could force companies to cut back on hiring, innovation, and expansion, while also hurting allies and potentially impeding economic growth globally. In other words, they represent an American version of an economic winding down, both domestically and internationally.

    5. Fighting the Fed

    President Trump’s belligerence has centered around his belief that the wealthiest, most powerful nation on the planet has been victimized by the rest of the world. Now, that feeling has been extended to the Federal Reserve where he recently lashed out against its chairman (and his own appointee) Jerome Powell.

    The Fed had been providing trillions of dollars of stimulus to the banking system and financial markets though a bond-buying program wonkily called “quantitative easing” or “QE.” Its claim: that this Wall Street subsidy is really a stimulus for Main Street.

    Unlikely as that story may prove to be, presidents have normally refrained from publicly commenting on the Federal Reserve’s policies, allowing it to maintain at least a veneer of independence, as mandated by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. (In reality, the Fed has remained significantly dependent on the whims and desires of the White House, a story revealed in my new book Collusion.) However, this White House is run by a president who couldn’t possibly keep his opinions to himself.

    So far, the Fed has raised (or “tightened”) interest rates seven times since December 2015. Under Powell, it has done so twice, with two more hikes forecast by year’s end. These moves were made without Trump’s blessing and he views them as contrary to his administration’s economic objectives. In an interview with CNBC, he proclaimed that he was “not thrilled” with the rate hikes, a clear attempt to directly influence Fed policy. Sticking with tradition, the Fed offered no reaction, while the White House quickly issued a statement emphasizing that the president “did not mean to influence the Fed’s decision-making process.” 

    Ignoring that official White House position, the president promptly took to Twitter to express his frustrations with the Fed. (“[T]he United States should not be penalized because we are doing so well. Tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates — Really?”)

    Fed Chairman Powell may want to highlight his independence from the White House, but as a Trump appointee, any decisions made in the framework of the president’s reactions could reflect political influence in the making. The bigger problem is that such friction could incite greater economic uncertainty, which could prove detrimental to the economic strength Trump says he wants to maintain.

    When Entropy Wins, the World Loses

    Trump’s method works like a well-oiled machine. It keeps everyone — his cabinet, the media, global leaders, and politicians and experts of every sort — off guard. It ensures that his actions will have instant impact, no matter how negative. 

    Economically, the repercussions of this strategy are both highly global and extremely local. As Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) noted recently, “This trade war is cutting the legs out from under farmers and [the] White House’s ‘plan’ is to spend $12 billion on gold crutches… This administration’s tariffs and bailouts aren’t going to make America great again, they’re just going to make it 1929 again.”

    He was referring to the White House’s latest plan to put up to $12 billiontaxpayer dollars into those sectors of American agriculture hit hardest by Trump’s tariff wars. Let that sink in for a moment and think: entropy. In order to fix the problems the president has created, allegedly to help America become great again, a deficit-ridden government will have to shell out extra taxpayer dollars.

    Subsidizing farmers isn’t in itself necessarily a bad thing. It is, in fact, very New Deal-ish and Franklin Delano Roosevelt-esque. But doing so to fix an unnecessary problem? Under such circumstances, where will it stop? When those $200 billion or $500 billion in tariffs on China (or other countries) enflames the situation further, who gets aid next? Auto workers? Steel workers?

    What we are witnessing is the start of the entropy wars, which will, in turn, hasten the unwinding of the American global experiment. Each arbitrary bit of presidential pique, each tweet and insult, is a predecessor to yet more possible economic upheavals and displacements, ever messier and harder to clean up.

    Trump’s America could easily morph into a worldwide catch-22. The more trust is destabilized, the greater the economic distress. The weaker the economy, the more disruptable it becomes by the Great Disrupter himself. And so the Trump spiral spins onward, circling down an economic drain of his own making.

  • "Downward Correction In Hamptons Real Estate Market" As Caution Spreads To New York Elites

    Last Friday’s report on US economic growth drove President Donald Trump to Twitter for yet, another victory lap after it showed gross domestic product grew at a 4.1 percent annual rate — the quickest in nearly four years. However, the figures had an unpleasant detail deep within that Trump did not want to share: Residential investment, which included construction and brokers’ fees, contracted in the second quarter. Compound this with a housing affordability crisis, and Jerome Powell rocketing the federal funds rates higher before the next recession, it is a perfect concoction for a nasty slowdown sometime in the not too distant future.

    From London to Sydney and Beijing to New York, real estate markets in some of the world’s most expensive cities are peaking. In this report, we examine the slowdown seeping into the South Fork real estate market, otherwise known as the Hamptons.

    As the bubbly may be flowing in Southampton this summer, second-quarter sales plummeted 12.8 percent from 2017 level, according to data prepared for Douglas Elliman by Miller Samuel Real Estate. The median home price dropped 5.3 percent to a $975,000, compared with $1.03 million last year.

    The report suggested that homebuyers in the region should not panic (yeah, sure.), and residents should look at other metrics, including growth in the $5 million to $8 million range.

    “There is a downward correction in Hamptons market,” said Carl Benincasa, a Douglas Elliman regional vice president of sales, who spoke with Southampton Press. “Buyers are always aware of it before sellers. But now the sellers are finally figuring out where buyers are and they are making the adjustments they need to meet them. That’s why you are seeing prices drop; that’s why you are seeing houses are being sold faster; that’s why you are seeing listing discounts go down: because sellers are pricing their homes more reasonably.”

    Mr. Benincasa indicated that the second quarter serves as a “transition period” when buyers and sellers are coming together with a reasonable agreement about price, and he expects many more transactions in the third quarter.

    “One of the characteristics of the high-end housing markets around the region, whether we are talking about New York City or the outlying suburbs, is a sales decline,” said Jonathan Miller, the president and CEO of Miller Samuel, “and the Hamptons is no different.”

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    The report specified that sales activity of homes in the $1 million to $5 million price range (“Hamptons middle”) took the hardest hit, which accounted for a majority of the quarter’s loss.

    “But the 10-year quarterly average is 474 homes sold—Q2 2018 was 601; Q1 2018 was 441; Q2 2017 was 689—sales are not necessarily low in the Hamptons. The Hamptons is known for the luxury market. While the overall inventory of the Hamptons is steady or declining, the actual inventory in the luxury market, meaning the top 10 percent, jumped and is continuing to rise.”

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    In a separate interview with the Financial Times, Miller also said: “The middle is where you have more leverage being used in acquisitions, so rising mortgage rates are a factor, the new tax laws are a factor,” he said. “General uncertainty applies more to that segment than any other.”

    The inventory of homes listed above $4.25 million rose 36.5 percent y/y in the second quarter to 329, according to Miller Samuel. Sales in the luxury segment of the market plummeted 11.6 percent from last year’s level.

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    “The prices really ran up quickly and a lot of inventory built up,” said John F Wines, a broker at Saunders & Associates in Southampton. “Now sellers have had to get a little more realistic.”

    Judi Desiderio, chief executive at Town & Country Real Estate in East Hampton, warned there is a “glut in the market,” with pricing pressures on the luxury real estate segment.

    “Those homes are being brought down significantly,” said Ms Desiderio. “We have seen houses listed at $15m brought down to $12m, and maybe trading at $9m or $10m.”

    Desiderio said the Hamptons saw only one sale closing for more than $20m, compared with four in the same period last year.

    The property in East Hampton sold for $40 million in April. It had been initially listed for $69 million in 2016, for which the closing price represents a 42 percent discount.

    It seems as the Hamptons real estate market is raising a large red flag for America’s housing market that could signal a peak.

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Today’s News 2nd August 2018

  • Terror Charges Dropped Against British Ex-Soldier Who Fought In Syria

    As the war in Syria is showing signs that it could be winding down, more “foreign fighters” from Europe and the West are returning to their home countries, most especially jihadists who are in some instances (though notably not all) being charged and tried upon their return for violating anti-terror laws.

    But the more interesting “hard” cases are currently playing out in UK courtrooms as more and more “volunteers” for the Syrian Kurdish YPG (or Kurdish “People’s Protection Units”) are also returning home.

    And though in the instance of the secular Kurdish armed movement which currently holds up to 20% of Syrian territory in the north and east of the country American, British and French troops are actually directly supporting the YPG (which is the core component of the US-backed SDF), still — British men and women previously embedded with the group face arrest and trial upon their return on terrorism related charges, as demonstrated this week in the case of a British ex-soldier.  

    James Matthews, from east London, was charged with receiving training in Iraq and Syria on or before February 2016 “for purposes connected to the commission of preparation of terrorism.” He was set to face trial in November. The 43-year-old is the first person to face prosecution for terrorism in the UK for volunteering with a group already helped by the British and American governments.

    As Al-Masdar News reports, James Matthews pleaded not guilty to terror-related charges at a London court and has had the charges against him dropped, The Guardian revealed of the proceedings on Tuesday.

    Prosecutor Tom Little QC told the Old Bailey that the Crown Court was dropping the charges against Mr. Matthews as they believed there wasn’t a realistic chance of getting a conviction due to a lack of evidence.

    The defendant, from East London, volunteered with Kurdish forces to battle ISIS terrorists in Syria, and was surprised to be accused of “attending terrorist training camps in the war-torn state” upon his return to the UK.

    Speaking on his behalf, his lawyer insisted that they always said the allegations against Mr. Matthews were “extraordinary and totally unjustified,” but described his client as happy the charges had been dropped.

    When the charges were first announced it sparked anger from different segments of the UK, with pro-Kurdish activists accusing the government of letting returning ISIS and other jihadist terrorists off the hook while seeking to prosecute YPG volunteers. NATO ally Turkey considers the YPG a terrorist group and likely lobbied the UK to pursue arrests of returning volunteers.

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    James Matthews isn’t the only Briton to have smuggled himself to Syria to engage in the conflict, with dozens of others also doing so, and at least seven being killed there.

    The Foreign Office continues to urge British nationals to avoid Syria and hasn’t provided specific details about the number of Brits embedded in Kurdish forces there, saying “As all UK consular services are suspended in Syria, it is extremely difficult to confirm the whereabouts and status of British nationals in the country.”

    The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been significantly propped up by foreign fighters over the course of the conflict, primarily fighting ISIS, but some also elected to battle Turkey-backed forces which attacked Afrin earlier this year.

  • NATO: Time To Re-Examine An Alliance

    Authored by Conn Hallinan via Dispatches From The Edge blog,

    The outcome of the July11-12 NATO meeting in Brussels got lost amid the media’s obsession with President Donald Trump’s bombast, but the “Summit Declaration” makes for sober reading. The media reported that the 28-page document “upgraded military readiness,” and was “harshly critical of Russia,” but there was not much detail beyond that.

    But details matter, because that is where the Devil hides.

    One such detail is NATO’s “Readiness Initiative” that will beef up naval, air and ground forces in “the eastern portion of the Alliance.” NATO is moving to base troops in Latvia, Estonia Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Poland. Since Georgia and Ukraine have been invited to join the Alliance, some of those forces could end up deployed on Moscow’s western and southern borders.

    And that should give us pause.

    A recent European Leadership’s Network’s (ELN) study titled “Envisioning a Russia-NATO Conflict” concludes, “The current Russia-NATO deterrence relationship is unstable and dangerously so.” The ELN is an independent think tank of military, diplomatic and political leaders that fosters “collaborative” solutions to defense and security issues.

    High on the study’s list of dangers is “inadvertent conflict,” which ELN concludes “may be the most likely scenario for a breakout” of hostilities. “The close proximity of Russian and NATO forces” is a major concern, argues the study, “but also the fact that Russia and NATO have been adapting their military postures towards early reaction, thus making rapid escalation more likely to happen.”

    With armed forces nose-to-nose, “a passage from crisis to conflict might be sparked by the actions of regional commanders or military commanders at local levels or come as a consequence of an unexpected incident or accident.” According to the European Leadership Council, there have been more than 60 such incidents in the last year.

    The NATO document is, indeed, hard on Russia, which it blasts for the “illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea,” its “provocative military activities, including near NATO borders,” and its “significant investments in the modernization of its strategic [nuclear] forces.”

    Unpacking all that requires a little history, not the media’s strong suit.

    The story goes back more than three decades to the fall of the Berlin Wall and eventual re-unification of Germany. At the time, the Soviet Union had some 380,000 troops in what was then the German Democratic Republic. Those forces were there as part of the treaty ending World War II, and the Soviets were concerned that removing them could end up threatening the USSR’s borders. The Russians have been invaded—at terrible cost—three times in a little more than a century.

    So West German Chancellor Helmet Kohl, U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, and Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev cut a deal. The Soviets agreed to withdraw troops from Eastern Europe as long as NATO did not fill the vacuum, or recruit members of the Soviet-dominated Warsaw Pact. Baker promised Gorbachev that NATO would not move “one inch east.”

    The agreement was never written down, but it was followed in practice. NATO stayed west of the Oder and Neisse rivers, and Soviet troops returned to Russia. The Warsaw Pact was dissolved in 1991.

    But President Bill Clinton blew that all up in 1999 when the U.S. and NATO intervened in the civil war between Serbs and Albanians over the Serbian province of Kosovo. Behind the new American doctrine of “responsibility to protect,” NATO opened a massive 11-week bombing campaign against Serbia.

    From Moscow’s point of view the war was unnecessary. The Serbs were willing to withdraw their troops and restore Kosovo’s autonomous status. But NATO demanded a large occupation force that would be immune from Serbian law, something the nationalist-minded Serbs would never agree to. It was virtually the same provocative language the Austrian-Hungarian Empire had presented to the Serbs in 1914, language that set off World War I.

    In the end, NATO lopped off part of Serbia to create Kosovo and re-drew the post World War II map of Europe, exactly what the Alliance charges that Russia has done with its seizure of the Crimea.

    But NATO did not stop there. In 1999 the Alliance recruited former Warsaw Pact members Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, adding Bulgaria and Romania four years later. By the end of 2004, Moscow was confronted with NATO in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to the north, Poland to the west, and Bulgaria and Turkey to the south. Since then, the Alliance has added Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, and Montenegro. It has invited Georgia, Ukraine, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina to apply as well.

    When the NATO document chastises Russia for “provocative” military activities near the NATO border, it is referring to maneuvers within its own border or one of its few allies, Belarus.

    As author and foreign policy analyst Anatol Lieven points out, “Even a child” can look at a 1988 map of Europe and see “which side has advanced in which direction.”

    NATO also accuses Russia of “continuing a military buildup in Crimea,” without a hint that those actions might be in response to what the Alliance document calls its “substantial increase in NATO’s presence and maritime activity in the Black Sea.” Russia’s largest naval port on the Black Sea is Sevastopol in the Crimea.

    One does not expect even-handedness in such a document, but there are disconnects in this one that are worrisome.

    Yes, the Russians are modernizing their nuclear forces, but the Obama administration was first out of that gate in 2009 with its $1.5 trillion program to upgrade the U.S.’s nuclear weapons systems. Both programs are a bad idea.

    Some of the document’s language about Russia is aimed at loosening purse strings at home. NATO members agreed to cough up more money, but that decision preceded Trump’s Brussels tantrum on spending.

    There is some wishful thinking on Afghanistan—“Our Resolute Support Mission is achieving success”—when in fact things have seldom been worse. There are vague references to the Middle East and North Africa, nothing specific, but a reminder that NATO is no longer confining its mission to what it was supposedly set up to do: Keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down.

    The Americans are still in – one should take Trump’s threat of withdrawal with a boulder size piece of salt – there is no serious evidence the Russians ever planned to come in, and the Germans have been up since they joined NATO in 1955. Indeed, it was the addition of Germany that sparked the formation of the Warsaw Pact.

    While Moscow is depicted as an aggressive adversary, NATO surrounds Russia on three sides, has deployed anti-missile systems in Poland, Romania, Spain, Turkey, and the Black Sea, and has a 12 to 1 advantage in military spending. With opposing forces now toe-to-toe, it would not take much to set off a chain reaction that could end in a nuclear exchange.

    Yet instead of inviting a dialogue, the document boasts that the Alliance has “suspended all practical civilian and military cooperation between NATO and Russia.”

    The solution seems obvious.

    First, a return to the 1998 military deployment. While it is unlikely that former members of the Warsaw Pact would drop their NATO membership, a withdrawal of non-national troops from NATO members that border Russia would cool things off. Second, the removal of anti-missile systems that should never have been deployed in the first place. In turn, Russia could remove the middle range Iskander missiles NATO is complaining about and agree to talks aimed at reducing nuclear stockpiles.

    But long range, it is finally time to re-think alliances. NATO was a child of the Cold War, when the West believed that the Soviets were a threat. But Russia today is not the Soviet Union, and there is no way Moscow would be stupid enough to attack a superior military force. It is time NATO went the way of the Warsaw Pact and recognize that the old ways of thinking are not only outdated but also dangerous.

  • Meet China's "Secret" Space Control Listening Base In Argentina Now Alarming US Officials

    A recent New York Times piece has sounded the alarm over what Washington perceives as China’s “expanding reach into Latin America,” related to a space mission control center located in the heart of the Patagonia region of Argentina.   

    It begins with an eerily beautiful description of an imposing structure, guarded by Chinese military personnel, unexpectedly rising out of Patagonian desert:

    The giant antenna rises from the desert floor like an apparition, a gleaming metal tower jutting 16 stories above an endless wind-whipped stretch of Patagonia. The 450-ton device, with its hulking dish embracing the open skies, is the centerpiece of a $50 million satellite and space mission control station built by the Chinese military. The station began operating in March, playing a pivotal role in China’s audacious expedition to the far side of the moon — an endeavor that Argentine officials say they are elated to support.

    Via The New York Times

    The underlying perspective of the New York Times report over what is otherwise ostensibly a peaceful Argentine-Chinese space communications partnership is presented bluntly in the third stanza“The isolated base is one of the most striking symbols of Beijing’s long push to transform Latin America and shape its future for generations to come — often in ways that directly undermine the United States’ political, economic and strategic power in the region.”

    For Washington strategists the Chinese military-constructed “deep space research” communications base, defined visually by the massive antenna that juts out of the otherwise small facility in an isolated country area of Neuquen province, represents China’s growing ability to sow deep economic inroads and expanding political influence in Latin America via secretive negotiations. 

    The NYT notes “concerns” over Chinese tech infrastructure being established as part of an extension to China’s global Belt and Road initiative:

    But the way the base was negotiated — in secret, at a time when Argentina desperately needed investment — and concerns that it could enhance China’s intelligence-gathering capabilities in the Western Hemisphere have set off a debate in Argentina about the risks and benefits of being pulled into China’s orbit.

    Base construction moved forward after a 50-year contract for was negotiated between the government of Argentina’s former President Christina Fernandez de Kirchner (2007-2015) and the administration of Chinese President Xi Jinping, and approved by Argentinian parliament in February 2015. It finally went online in March of 2018.

    A 2017 handout picture provided by local authorities shows the Chinese space station in Neuquen, Argentina. Reports say Chinese military personnel provide security around the base. Via Agencia EFE

    The NYT charts China’s significant economic inroads into both Argentina and Latin America in general, starting with the fact that China eclipsed the United States as South America and the Caribbean’s top trading partner starting in 2015, topping $244 billion last yearover twice that of a decade earlier

    This, the Times says, is what allowed China to make deep trade, infrastructure, and military inroads into Latin America at a time when both the Obama and Trump administrations focused their attention elsewhere in the globe, for example, on China’s expanding trade corridor in central Asia.

    And more specifically, the secret negotiations for the space control station with Argentina’s president occurred at a time when the country and its neighbors were desperate to secure external loans and in some cases urgent bail outs:

    Perhaps more significantly, China has issued tens of billions of dollars in commodities-backed loans across the Americas, giving it claim over a large share of the region’s oil — including nearly 90 percent of Ecuador’s reserves — for years.

    China has also made itself indispensable by rescuing embattled governments and vital state-controlled companies in countries like Venezuela and Brazil, willing to make big bets to secure its place in the region.

    Here in Argentina, a nation that had been shut out of international credit markets for defaulting on about $100 billion in bonds, China became a godsend for then-President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

    At the very moment China “was extending a helping hand” it then “began the secret negotiations that led to the satellite and space control station here in Patagonia”. 

    The NYT goes on the cite a number of Washington defense officials and analysts who present an alarmist scenario of what’s described as China’s discreet and “far-reaching plans” to hitch “the fate of several countries in the region to its own” in order to feed its “voracious appetite for the region’s oil, iron, soybeans and copper” — all the while surreptitiously laying down security and intelligence infrastructure

    An arms control official under the Obama administration, Frank A. Rose, told the Times, “They are deploying these capabilities to blunt American military advantages, which are in many ways derived from space,” which he identifies as sophisticated jamming techniques that could “disrupt and destroy satellites” — though without citing specific examples of such aggressive acts happening. 

    And further, the Times describes the potential ulterior capabilities and uses of the 450-ton Chinese antenna and space communications station

    Antennas and other equipment that support space missions, like the kind China now has here in Patagonia, can increase China’s intelligence-gathering capabilities, experts say.

    “A giant antenna is like a giant vacuum cleaner,” said Dean Cheng, a former congressional investigator who studies China’s national security policy. “What you are sucking up is signals, data, all sorts of things.”

    Lt. Col. Christopher Logan, a Pentagon spokesman, said American military officials were assessing the implications of the Chinese monitoring station. Chinese officials declined requests for interviews about the base and their space program.

    Though certainly worrisome that Americans’ telecommunications data could be swept up by such a Chinese space listening post, it could simply be that China first and foremost seeks trade as well as tech partners throughout the world to allay the massive costs that come which such endeavors as space exploration (like most any other advanced industrial power today).

    But then again as we’ve reported with increased frequency over the past year, China’s rapid military and advanced telecommunications and weapons modernization —  undergirded by a burgeoning defense budget (it recently unveiled its largest in three years) – has been nothing short of remarkable, and is set to challenge the West on several fronts.

    Perhaps, in what would be a nightmare scenario for Western officials who’ve been caught off guard, China has indeed already staked out a new massive intelligence-collecting outpost south of America’s border under the guise of space exploration. 

  • Conservatives Banned From Social Media? Here's What They Can Do About It

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    The past two years have seen a rather aggressive change in corporate policies toward the very customers they used to covet. Not long ago, CEOs tended to keep their political views mostly in the closet. Companies remained publicly neutral because their goal was first and foremost to make money. When they wanted to influence politics or social norms, they bought politicians – you know, the good old-fashioned way. The big banks still do this by funneling cash to both Republicans and Democrats alike.

    However, in the wake of the social justice cult frenzy some companies have decided that ideology is more important than profit, and most of these companies are deeply involved in various forms of media.

    Some people will argue that the media has always been leftist in its orientation and that this trend is nothing new. But, I think it is clear to anyone who has worked in countering mainstream media disinformation that something is very different today. Conservatives are being “cleansed” from participation in these communications platforms, and conservative ideals are being erased or misrepresented on a massive scale. Not long ago, media companies at least pretended to be “fair and balanced” by tolerating a certain level of participation by conservatives. No longer.

    With the advent of the internet and social media, participation in political discussion has become more open to the common citizen than ever before. This is apparently an intolerable side effect that corporate elites would like to do away with.

    It is a slightly complex problem, so I’ll try to break it down point by point:

    First, companies like Facebook, Google and Twitter are not honest in the presentation of their own image. They initially depicted themselves as bastions of social commerce without any interest in ideological battles. If they had come right out in the open from the beginning and admitted they are running their platforms based on social justice lunacy, then perhaps conservatives would not have bothered to join in the first place. Then Facebook and others could keep their forums “ideologically pure” without misleading people.

    Second, while these companies do have standards of behavior and rules for participants, the rules are deliberately broad and vaporous. They claim their rules focus on more abhorrent behaviors like overt racism, but then go on to define almost EVERYTHING that they disagree with as “racist.” This includes most conservative viewpoints and arguments. Therefore, it appears that social media corporations want to fool as many people as possible into joining their platforms, getting them addicted to participation, and then these companies want to have the option of controlling those people’s behavior through the fear of losing access.

    Third, while this is clearly ideological zealotry, social media websites are also private property.  They are not “free speech zones”. They can invite people in, and they can demand people leave anytime they wish. If conservatives are going to argue in favor of private property rights and voluntary participation rights, then they must include private websites in this.

    So then, what is the solution?

    Some will claim that social media giants represent a public utility rather than private property and that they should be subjected to regulation by government in terms of political discrimination. I disagree.

    Giving government EVEN MORE intrusive powers into how businesses function from day to day is not the answer. Allowing government to indiscriminately label a business or website a “public utility” is essentially nationalization of private property; something very common in communist countries but a habit that should be avoided in America. We need less government and less bureaucracy, not more, and conservatives need to remember that while leftists present a constant annoyance, it is big government that remains the ultimate threat to individual freedom.

    They may start with Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc., but where does it stop?  How long before government is enforcing participation rules on all websites?  How long before conservative websites are required to allow leftist trolls and disinformation agents of every stripe the freedom to rampage through their forums without any recourse to remove them?  How long before government shifts over to the other side of the aisle and conservatives start kicking themselves for passing laws that are then used against them?

    That said, there are some issues with corporations in general that need to be addressed when considering this conundrum. For example, many corporations are not normal businesses in the free market sense. Corporations only exist because of government charter and protections like limited liability. This is where many hardcore Anarcho-capitalists I have dealt with in the past tend to go wrong in their rabid defense of corporations and monopolies. The reality is that corporations are a product of government and are not a natural function of free markets.

    Facebook has received considerable government aid. For years Facebook has been offered special tax breaks to the extent that in some cases they have avoided taxes to the IRS altogether. Show me how many small-business owners get that kind of treatment from the government!

    Facebook has also allowed intrusive data mining operations including government operations and corporate operations to spy on its users and has so far suffered little consequences beyond a slap on the wrist. Facebook has even maintained partnerships with foreign entities considered national security threats to the U.S.

    This does not mean that companies like Facebook should be nationalized and turned into public utilities in a socialist free-for-all. But it does mean that corporations should not exist in the form they do today if we are to ever find balance.

    I would first advocate for the end of the legal protections afforded under “corporate personhood.”  When a company like Facebook is sued or prosecuted for its trespasses and criminality, the company itself is treated as if it is a legal person. Mark Zuckerberg and his ilk are not punished: the company is punished.  This usually ends in fines which amount to nothing more than pocket change.

    Under Adam Smith’s model of free markets, corporations (or joint stock companies as they were called in his day), were not acceptable. As mentioned, they are not a function of free markets. Partnerships are, though. Reducing corporations down to partnerships and removing corporate welfare and government protections would go a long way in solving the dangers of business elites and their control of entire swaths of public communication (among many other sectors).

    This is why I am also a proponent of the breakup of corporate monopolies. If a corporation, unfairly aided by government in numerous ways, becomes so large and influential that free market competition with that company is impossible, then it should be broken up into separate competing companies so that there is more incentive to keep customers rather than discriminate against them. This is just one solution to the problem of social media outlets that are attempting to cut out one-half of the American public.

    If the breakup of monopolies is not possible, or if one company is separated into competing parts and these parts STILL cling to ideological zealotry rather than pursuing sound business practices, then it is up to conservatives themselves to create an alternative.

    That’s right — I’m saying it’s time for a conservative (or truly neutral) Facebook, a conservative Twitter, a conservative YouTube, etc.

    More government domination of business is not an option, and it’s certainly not conservative in spirit. What is conservative in spirit is industry and self-reliance. I see no reason why a conservative or neutral social media outlet would not be financially successful, as long as it is not interfered with by government.

    If the system is not offering a necessity or service, or it is restricting a necessity or service, then it is up to free people to provide that necessity or service for themselves instead of relying on others to do it for them.

    I do fear that that the social justice aggression within corporations against conservatives is part of a larger and more subversive plan. If one studies the leftist tactics of socialist gatekeeper Saul Alinsky, one would discover that they often use the strategy of harassing their enemies to illicit a vicious overreaction. Meaning, it may be the goal of the leftists or globalists (who have no loyalty to either side) to manipulate conservatives through their own anger.

    Conservatives are portrayed as evil and monstrous tyrants, or as dumb bumbling bigots in most current media. The social justice ideology is placed on a pedestal as unassailable and untouchable in movies, television shows and even commercials. It is treated as absolute truth that cannot be questioned or debated. In the meantime, social media companies seek to gain vast market share of communications spaces and then reduce conservative presence there so that we cannot argue our side of the issues.

    I get it. There is every reason for conservatives to be pissed off. But, we need to look at the bigger picture.

    It is possible that the goal on the part of these companies is not necessarily to merely silence conservative voices on their forums or to slander us in ridiculous misrepresentations. It could be that they hope we will become enraged, and that we will respond by abandoning our own principles to attack them back. They want us to become the monsters that they are portraying us as. Even if we win, we lose.

    I have already outlined examples of how we can fight back without breaking our own ideals and morals; moving to expand government power in this area is completely unnecessary.   The fight is not just over modes of communication, it is over conscience and identity. The latter must not be sacrificed to obtain the former.

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  • War Is A Racket: After 17 Years And Billions Wasted, US Seeks Peace With Taliban

    Afghanistan, long acknowledged to be America’s “forgotten war”, has finally returned to the news of late. But this time, in a shocking twist on the now 17-year long conflict, the US is negotiating with the Taliban.

    Perhaps this is why the mainstream media has by and large not given this bombshell story the coverage it deserves? Or do the major networks feel the American public has long ago stopped paying attention and will therefore yawn at any headlines containing the words ‘US Troops/Afghanistan’?

    Image source: Getty via The Telegraph

    As Daniel McAdams explains, last week US State Department officials met with Taliban leaders in Qatar. At the request of the Taliban, the US-backed Afghan government was not invited. The officials discussed ceasefires and an end to the war.

    Meanwhile, the US inspector general charged with monitoring US spending on Afghanistan reconstruction has reported that since 2008, the US has completely wasted at the least $15.5 billion. He believes that’s just the tip of the iceberg, though.

    On Sunday, Reuters had this report on the latest surprising developments:

    A meeting between a senior U.S. diplomat and Taliban representatives in Doha last week to discuss a possible ceasefire ended with “very positive signals” and a decision to hold more meetings, people with knowledge of the talks said on Sunday.

    The meeting between a delegation led by Alice Wells, deputy assistant secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, and Taliban representatives was first reported in The Wall Street Journal but has not been officially confirmed.

    According to one Taliban official, who said he was part of a four-member delegation, there were “very positive signals” from the meeting, which he said was conducted in a “friendly atmosphere” in a Doha hotel.

    Could we be witnessing the very beginning stages of a negotiated face-saving exit from this nearly two decade long American quagmire in central Asia? 

    The prospect is discussed in today’s Liberty Report:

  • Which Companies Lost The Most Fake Followers In The Twitter Bot Purge?

    Submitted by Priceonomics

    On July 11, 2018, Twitter announced in a blog post they would be removing all “locked” accounts – those exhibiting suspicious or spammy behavior – from the service and warned that by doing a sweep of these accounts, many users would lose a pretty significant number of followers.

    One of the metrics Craft tracks on companies is social media engagement, so we looked through our database before and after the purge to see which company Twitter accounts lost the most followers.

    The table below shows the 25 companies with the highest number of lost followers:

    Ironically, Twitter itself was the account that lost the most followers by a wide margin. Other social media platforms, YouTubeInstagramFacebook also appeared on the list, as did other news/entertainment companies including The New York TimesESPNCNN and others.

    Next, we looked at which of the largest accounts were least affected by this purge. We filtered our list of companies to those with more than 500,000 Twitter followers. Of those, twenty-five companies were in fact so unaffected, they actually gained followers in this period.

    Blockchain and Cryptocurrency-related companies (CoinbaseBittrexBitcoin, and others) are heavily represented in this list above, perhaps surprisingly showing themselves relatively immune to the Twitter purge of bot accounts.

    It is possible these accounts gained followers so rapidly that the followers they lost in the purge were quickly gained back, yielding a net positive increase in followers. Epic Games (creator of Fortnite), for example, gained 86,600 followers in the two week period after July 19. Similarly, the Blockchain and Cryptocurrency-related accounts each gained under 10,000 new followers in the two week period after the purge was complete. And therefore, as these post-purge numbers are similar to the increase in followers during the purge, this suggests there were not a huge number of accounts removed from their follower counts.

    For companies with over 500,000 followers, the chart below shows how many companies lost what percentage of their followers:

    *Note: the <1% category includes the 25 companies that gained followers during the period.

    The mean decrease in Twitter followers for these larger accounts was 2.6%. The median loss, however, was 1.7% – the difference is due to a skewed right distribution from a handful of accounts that suffered heavy losses. Four accounts lost over 40% of their followers: CEOWORLD Magazine (-64%), Andrew Christian Inc. (-60%), Yes Bank (-44%), and MusclePharm (-44%).

    As markets look beyond financials to measure the health, value, and future potential of a company, alternative metrics can be used to gauge company vitality. One of these metrics is audience engagement on social media. Bots and spam accounts were clearly distorting the true picture regarding companies’ real social media followings, so it was a helpful move from Twitter to reduce fake accounts and improve the signal to noise ratio on the platform.

  • California's Native Americans Now Want to Secede From Trump's America

    While the left-er members of California’s sanctuary state decry those who refuse to hug a tree/illegal-immigrant/paper-straw, it was a Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist that most recently attempted to split the state into more co-operative communities (but was denied by the California’s Supreme Court despite over 365,000 signatories believing in the plan).

    California

    Now, a month later, a different group of well-meaning Californians wants out of America as it stands.

    As RT reports, supporters of a long-running effort to see California secede from the United States have revamped their plans to include the creation of an “autonomous Native American nation,” which would encompass almost half of the new state.

    The Calexit campaign held a rally at the California state capitol in Sacramento on July 4, calling for an end to the American “occupation” of the state. A statement released by the campaign said that US Independence Day was “no longer a day to celebrate.”

    Having failed in 2017 with CalExit 3.0

    CalExit 4.0 is about to be relaunched with a whole new angle – instead of simply seceding from the US, however, the new plans involve creating a special Native American “autonomous nation” within the new independent state, creating a “buffer zone between between Donald Trump’s America and the new independent California Republic,” according to Yes California co-founder Marcus Ruiz Evans.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Now bear in mind that CalExit 4.0 will also have to get the 365,880 signatures required (just as Tim Draper did above before the Supreme Court banned it) to get the question of California independence on a special 2021 ballot.

    Another movement co-founder, Louis J. Marinelli – whose wife is Russian and had previously run into trouble for asking that California “independence” be recognized by Putin, explained the decision as a way to “right the some of the wrongs of the past” by giving back land to Native American people.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Calexit campaign said on Twitter that the new Native American autonomous buffer zone would help the new California advance its progressive platform “without all those Trump supporters trying to derail” the new state “at every turn.”

    We have two awkward questions – do the native Americans know they are being ‘given back’ the least productive part of the state? And what will happen to the Trump-Buffer-Zone when President Trump’s term expires?

  • A Fork-In-The-Road Approaches: 95 Revelations From July, 2018

    Authored by Doug “Uncola” Lynn via TheTollOnline.com,

    Beginning in May of this year (for April), this blogger had the idea to track linked internet headlines from various link-aggregating websites as documented transitions and arrange them into catalogued anthologies. The goal was to map a veritable road, if you will, on the way toward future revelations.

    Beyond that, the series of encyclopedic atomization was meant for posterity, a means to compare tracking from previous months, and assembled in outright defiance against increasing internet censorship and memory-holed search engine results.

    Predictably, like dots formulated into patterns on a grid, or in a matrix, so too have trends come into better focus as we continue our monthly trek toward the 2018 Midterm Elections.

    As stated by this blogger before, President Donald Trump is the manifestation of one of the following three possibilities:

    A.) The Real Thing

    B.) Serving the agenda of the global financial elite unwittingly

    C.) Controlled opposition as a Judas Goat or Trojan Horse

    If B or C, he was installed to bleed the remaining air out of the brake-lines before the big stop; a last gasp, if you will.  America’s death rattle.

    If A – then Trump is truly at war against the Financial-Military Industrial Complex, and if he loses, then the musical artist Frank Zappa described what will happen next:

    The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.

    – Frank Zappa

    Therefore, if the war in government is real, the midterm elections would represent a fork-in-the road, so to speak.  If the Republicans do well, Trump could (possibly) be provided some breathing room to continue with his professed agenda.  If, on the other hand, the Democrats win big – it would be perceived as a mandate against Trump, and ensure a further loss of support for the President in the GOP; even as congressional impeachment proceedings commence in the House.

    In any case, while traveling toward the approaching fork-in-the-road, it should be no surprise that July was a very eventful month.  In fact, the overall itemized compilation was likely too sizable (over 8,000 words) for most web surfers to process adequately and enjoyably during the course of their busy day.

    Consequently, and with that in mind, the FULL LIST for July 1-31, 2018 was compiled and placed right here  should anyone wish to take the time to read it all through.

    Accordingly, the items below represented what I consider to be the most identifiable 95 signposts on our mid-summer’s journey to either making America Great Again or into a neo-Orwellian hell on earth.

    Again, for the reader’s convenience, the revelations are sorted into the same category headings that were utilized last month and the month prior.  For those blog-rolling on a breakneck blitz and wanting to bypass the piddling incidentals, there are some concluding comments and questions at the very end:

    The American Experiment

    (Short List # / Full List #)

    1 / 4.)  Two days prior to the Fourth of July, vandals threw a brick through the window of the Nebraska Republican Party’s headquarters in Lincoln, Nebraska and spray-painted “ABOLISH ICE” in blood-red capital letters there.

    2 / 7.) In the Democratic National Committee’s annual Fourth of July statement, chairman Tom Perez said “our most fundamental values are under attack” and lamented the “problems” of low-paying jobs, health care, immigration, injustice to people of color and members of the LGBTQ community, a recent Supreme Court decision on public unions,  and the retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy. He also expressed concerns that “thousands of children have been separated from their parents at our southern border,” and added:

    At our highest court, workers’ rights are being taken away, voting rights are under assault, Muslim Americans are being discriminated against for their faith, and women’s right to choose is under threat like never before.

    3 / 9.) In the aftermath of Rep. Maxine Waters calling for unwarranted harassment of Trump administration officials,  nearly 200 black female leaders and allies wrote a letter to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer excoriating them for their “failure” to protect Rep. Maxine Waters from “unwarranted attacks from the Trump administration and others in the GOP”.

    4 / 11.) A Reuters/Ipsos opinion showed immigration as a top issue for U.S. voters, with the economy as a close second.

    5 / 14.)  Texas land owners reported receiving letters from the government notifying them that their land will be surveyed for “tactical infrastructure, such as a border wall”.

    6 / 15.) As President Trump nominated U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court who believes judges must “interpret the U.S. Constitution as written” and “not make law”, the Democrats, in turn, vowed “the fight of a lifetime” to keep Kavanaugh off the Supreme Court.  Senate Democrats later conspired in a plan to stall Kavanaugh’s nomination process.

    7 / 18.) Republican alarm bells were sounded upon reports of Democrats having registered 12 million more voters.

    8 / 19.)  It was reported that a huge child-sex-trafficking ring was exposed by Trump’s enforcement of the Zero-Tolerance border policy.

    9 / 24.) Non-citizens legally registered to vote in San Francisco school elections as Republicans pushed back against the “noncitizen voting push in liberal jurisdictions”.

    10 / 26.) July was revealed to have been a “busy month for illegal immigrants committing heinous crimes” as “an illegal immigrant who had been deported eleven times attacked his wife with a chainsaw in front of their children, another got charged with a series of violent rapes and dozens were arrested for operating a major human and drug smuggling enterprise in a major U.S. city”.

    11 / 27.) Authorities in Sioux Falls, South Dakota arrested a 43-year-old man after they found explosive devices at his residence, as well as ammonium nitrate, aluminum powder, firearms, and multiple items related to the anti-fascist militant group, Antifa.

    12 / 28.) Students at Lee University in Tennessee petitioned to override Vice President Mike Pence’s First Amendment right because they perceived his political views as being “at odds with Christian values” and accused Pence of “outright bigotry against the working and poor classes, the LGBTQI+ community, immigrants, and the black community”.

    13 / 30.) A report from the Migration Policy Institute  found that 22% of the U.S. population does not speak English at home.

    14 / 32.)  Donald Trump’s star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame was destroyed with a pickaxe.  The stars of Harvey Weinstein, Bill Cosby, and Kevin Spacey were not damaged in the least.

    15 / 33.) As California Rep. Maxine Waters said that Americans should be “out in the streets screaming” about President Trump, a Marine veteran and a man wearing a Trump shirt were violently attacked in Los Angeles.

    16 / 35.) According to a new analysis by David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, the Democrats “remain substantial favorites for House control” because “Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930”.

    17 / 36.) President Trump tweeted that he would be willing to “shut down” government if the Democrats did not give Republicans the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall.  He added:

    Please understand, there are consequences when people cross our Border illegally, whether they have children or not – and many are just using children for their own sinister purposes. Congress must act on fixing the DUMBEST & WORST immigration laws anywhere in the world! Vote “R”

    18 / 37.) Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell saidborder “wall funding looked unlikely to be included in the current legislation”.

    19 / 39.) There were reports of a violent Portland, Oregon Antifa cell planning a “direct confrontation” with participants of an upcoming pro-Trump rally.

    20 / 40.) Republican strategists claimed President Trump’s approval was sinking “in some educated, affluent congressional districts with lots of independent voters the party needs to hold the House”.  The “current anguish” of the Republican strategists was due to the fact they have swallowed hook-line-and-sinker the Mainstream Media’s false narratives of “Trump’s decision to separate families crossing illegally into the United States” and “his performance at the Helsinki summit”.

    Capitalism & Marxism

    21 / 44.)  Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairman, Tom Perez, declared the Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez  to be the future of the Democratic Party.

    22 / 50.) The Census Bureau released data showing the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China set a record through May, hitting $152,237,500,000 for the first five months of 2018.

    23 / 56.) The new darling of the Democratic Party, Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, said: “Capitalism will not always exist”.

    24 / 58.) The Wall Street Journal reported expectations by the Trump administration for annual budget deficits to rise nearly $100 billion more than previously forecast in each of the next three years, pushing the federal deficit above $1 trillion starting next year.

    25 / 59.) After President Trump Tweeted that “China, EU are manipulating their currencies” and that “Fed “tightening now hurts all that we have done”the U.S. dollar tumbled; because truth should be seen but not heard.  Trump also added that “the U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals” and said:

    Debt coming due & we are raising rates – Really?

    26 / 60.)  As the Associated Press (AP) reported that Democratic socialism was surging in the age of Trump, former FBI Director, James Comey, implored his perceived saviors in the Democrat Party to “dump the Socialist Left” because “America’s great middle wants sensible, balanced, ethical leadership”.

    27 / 61.) In an interview on CNBC, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) said that Democrats will end the Trump tax cuts if they take power in November and also promoted a 50% tax hike on American earners.

    28 / 64.)  Facebook stock entered bear market territory, losing 20 percent off its 52-week highas the company’s daily active users declined and its worldwide daily user growth slid for its sixth straight quarter.  The more than 100 billion dollar rout was reported as the biggest loss in stock market history.

    29 / 65.) Unsurprisingly, The New York Times blamed Russian fake news and the political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica (i.e. alleged scandal of data-harvesting on behalf of Donald Trump) for Facebook’s stock rout instead of the company’s increasingly Orwellian inclinations.

    30 / 68.) As America’s second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) jumped 4.1%, The New York Times warned its readers:  “don’t expect the boom to last” because the growth was skewed by “a surge in soybean shipments” in advance of “President Trump’s trade policies”.

    Global Geopolitics

    31 / 75.) European Union leaders announced that officials from the EU and China were coming together to strengthen and protect their international trade relations from Trump’s “America First” agenda.

    32 / 77.) At the NATO Summit in Belgium on July 11, 2018 President Trump told the Secretary General of NATO that it was “totally unfair to the American taxpayer to have to pay to defend Germany from Russia, only to have Germany turn around a pay billions for fuel to Russia and that “something’s got to be done about this”.

    33 / 81.) The New York Times admitted that: “Trump Got From NATO Everything Obama Ever Asked For”.

    34 / 83.) In an interview with CBS Evening News anchor Jeff Glor in Scotland, President Trump named the European Union his “biggest foe globally right now”.

    35 / 87.)  Knife attacks, gun attacks, rape attacks, and homicide, continued to rapidly rise in England; quite possibly due in part to “Leftist London Mayor Sadiq Khan” doing everything in his power to cut “police stop and search tactics” that have “unfairly targeted minority ethnic groups” before “reversing his stance as crime began to surge”.

    36 / 88.) In response to Iranian President Rouhani’s warning to U.S. President Donald Trump that hostile policies could lead to the “mother of all wars”, Trump Tweeted back in all capital letters that Rouhani better stop the threats or suffer historic consequences;  as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, lowered the boom on Putin and put Iran on notice.

    37 / 89.)  Two days after he sent an all-caps warning of future conflict with Iran, President Donald Trump “tempered his threatening rhetoric” and said “his administration stands ready for Iran to come back to the negotiating table”.

    38 / 91.) The EU chief caved-in to Trump’s art of the deal and pledged to lower trade barriers with the US.

    Sex Crimes

    39 / 95.)  It was reported that “President Donald Trump’s longtime lawyer, Michael Cohen, secretly recorded a conversation with Trump two months before the presidential election in which they discussed payments to a former Playboy model”.  In response, Trump waived his attorney-client privilege on the secret recordings and Tweeted that he “did nothing wrong”.   It was later reported that U.S. Prosecutors were reviewing 12 audio recordings seized in the April 2018 raid of Cohen’s home, office and hotel room.

    40 / 96.) CNN broadcast an audio recording of Presidential Candidate Donald Trump discussing with his attorney Michael Cohen how they would buy the rights to a Playboy model’s story about an alleged affair Trump had with her years earlier.

    The President & the Porn Star

    41 / 97.) In the investigation of President Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, it was revealed that federal prosecutors had 1.3 million of Cohen’s files.

    42 / 98.) President Donald Trump’s longtime lawyer Michael Cohen hired Lanny Davis who once served as special counsel to former President Bill Clinton.

    43 / 99.) President Trump’s attorney and spokesman, Rudy Giuliani, said Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen should cooperate with federal investigators.

    The President, Lawyers, Spies, & Media Lies

    44 / 101.) Ten days after Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) told Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to release whatever evidence he had in the Russia investigation and “finish it the hell up because this country is being torn apart”, Special Counsel Robert Mueller tapped even more prosecutors to help with his growing Trump probe.  According to Bloomberg’s update on the inquisition of Trump’s suspected treason with Russia:

    …more money is being spent on work done by permanent Department of Justice units than on Mueller’s own dedicated operation. The DOJ units spent $9 million from the investigation’s start in May 2017 through March of this year, compared with $7.7 million spent by Mueller’s team.

    45 / 103.) In apparent “violation of Justice Department policies and, perhaps, legal prohibitions on disclosure of grand jury secrets”, claims were bolstered that AP reporters and FBI agents colluded in a conspiracy  against Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort.

    46 / 106.) During Peter Strzok’s testimony to Congress, Jim Jordon (R-Ohio) got the former FBI agent to admit that the FBI received the Hillary Clinton Funded “Golden Shower” dossier on Trump from the FBI’s Bruce Orr (whose wife worked for Fusion GPS) – which was an astounding admission on internal collusion – before Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) interrupted the exchange.

    47 / 107.) Republican Rep. Louie Gohmert of Texas said during the hearing with former FBI official, Peter Strzok, that the Inspector General discovered that nearly all of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s emails were sent to a foreign entity and that the FBI didn’t follow-up on that finding.

    48 / 108.) Furthermore, it was revealed that Strzok, himself, actually knew Clinton’s emails were in the hands of a foreign entity, that a whistleblower from the State Department tried delivering significant evidence in the Clinton email investigation which went nowhere, and that Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, was called four times from someone wanting to brief him about this, and he never returned the call.

    49 / 109.) In an effort to divert publicity away from the Capitol Hill testimony of disgraced FBI agent Peter Strzok, and to subvert President Trump’s efforts toward peace with Russia, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein announced the Mueller Investigation’s single indictment of Twelve Russian intelligence officers for alleged election hacking under President Obama’s watch; even though, according to Rosenstein “no American was a knowing participant” in the Russian efforts to influence the 2016 election and there was “no allegation in the indictment of any effect on the outcome of the election” .

    50 / 110.) Regarding the Russia indictment, President Trump Tweeted questions as to “why didn’t Obama do something”, especially when it was reported that President Obama was informed by the FBI in September [2016], before the election”.  Trump also Tweeted these questions:  “Where is the DNC Server, and why didn’t the FBI take possession of it? Deep State?

    51 / 111.) In the wake of Robert Mueller’s 29-page (evidence free) indictment of 12 Russians for election hacking, some in the media once more began to question the extent of American involvement.

    52 / 112.) The veteran GOP political operative, Roger Stone, said he was the ‘US person’ mentioned in the Mueller indictment of the 12 Russians.

    53 / 113.) Initial  claims were made that Republicans were preparing to impeach Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein because they felt Rosenstein had “continually stonewalled their investigation into corruption at the FBI” but Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) later ruled out the possibility of impeaching Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, saying there was “not enough support for his ouster”.

    54 / 114.)  In the aftermath of FBI agent Peter Strzok’s appearance before Congress, the full Editorial Board of The Wall Street Journal said“President Trump will have to declassify a host of documents if he wants Americans to learn the truth about what happened in 2016”.

    55 / 120.) In the press conference following the Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki, Trump shocked the Mainstream Media by again raising legitimate (and still unanswered) questions regarding the Democratic National Committee’s missing server and Hillary Clinton’s missing emails; as Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed U.S. intelligence agents funneled $400 Million to the Hillary Clinton Campaign.

    56 / 121.) The AP later reported on Trump’s “week of walk-backs” on Russia and the Federal Reserve and cited the Russian general prosecutor’s office retraction of Vladimir Putin’s claims of his Helsinki reference to $400 million being funneled to Hillary Clinton because, according to the AP:  “The notion of a $400 million donation to the Democrat’s campaign would be out of the question”.

    57 / 122.)  In the immediate aftermath of the Trump-Putin meeting, the Obama Administration’s CIA director, John Brennan, charged that President Trump’s post-summit press conference with Russia President Vladimir Putin was an act of treason; as disgraced former FBI Director, James Comey, called for a coup against the sitting president by means of patriots standing up and rejecting Trump’s behavior.

    58 / 123.) In a continuing effort to demonstrate his unquestionable professionalism and complete lack of bias, former FBI Director, James Comey, also Tweeted that “anyone voting Republican this fall is un-American”.

    59 / 125.) “Just days after special counsel Robert Mueller charged 12 Russian intelligence officials with directing a sprawling hacking effort aimed at swaying the 2016 election” and “just hours after President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin”, federal prosecutors charged an alleged Russian agent and “Gun Rights Activist”, named Maria Butina, for using the National Rifle Association (NRA) as a conduit to influence members of the Republican Party.  It was later discovered that Butina had high-level contacts in Washington DC; even taking part in 2015 meetings between a visiting Russian official and two senior officials at the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury Department.

    60 / 126.) In the wake of the Trump-Putin meeting, Russia’s elite and media celebrated the meeting as victory for Putin and “an end to the West’s attempt to isolate Russia”, as U.S. cable news networks saw “the apocalypse”, Trump as a worse-case-scenario Russian mole, and Trump’s performance as an act that will ‘Live in Infamy’ as much as Pearl Harbor or Kristallnacht.

    61 / 132.) During a Q&A with CNN’s Lester Holt at the Aspen Security Forum, FBI Chief Christopher Wray threatened to quit if Trump invited Russian agents to the U.S. and said:

    I do not believe Special Counsel Mueller is on a witch hunt. I think it is a professional investigation conducted by a man I’ve known to be a straight shooter.

    62 / 137.) As it was announced that Special Counsel Robert Mueller would give Democratic lobbyist, Tony Podesta, immunity to testify against Trump’s former campaign chair, Paul Manafort, claims were made that the Deep State was “using the Mueller probe to protect Clinton insiders from criminal investigation”.

    63 / 139.) An author by the name of Tim Wiener, who won the Pulitzer Prize and the National Book Award for reporting and writing on American intelligence, wrote the following in a Reuters commentary:

    …Trump has made real enemies in the realm of American national security. He has struck blows against their empire. One way or another, the empire will strike back.

    64 / 140.) The Wall Street Journal identified former CIA Director John Brennan as an “Obama-Clinton partisan” who “was pushing information to the FBI and pressuring it to act” and who “then took the lead on shaping the narrative that Russia was interfering in the election… which quickly evolved into the Trump-collusion narrative”.

    65 / 141.) Former Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper admitted in a CNN interview that former President Obama instigated the ongoing investigations into Donald Trump and those in his orbit.

    66 / 142.)  In an example of apparent selective cooperation, the Department of Justice released a heavily redacted copy of the Carter Page FISA warrant application and several renewals to The New York Times, which accused Page of being a Russian spy; even though Page hasn’t been charged in the nearly two years since the application was filed with any of the allegations contained therein.

    67 / 143.) The National Review’s Andrew McCarthy described why the FISA applications on Carter Page confirmed the FBI’s reliance on the unverified Steele Dossier.

    68 / 145.) As the DoJ released the redacted FISA applications on former Trump aide Carter Page, President Trump Tweeted that it was “Looking more & more like the Trump Campaign for President was illegally being spied upon (surveillance) for the political gain of Crooked Hillary Clinton and the DNC”, before Republican Senator Marco Rubio refuted Trump’s contentions by telling CBS’s “Face the Nation” that he “wouldn’t consider that spying on a campaign”.  Rubio’s soundbite refutation was then conveniently proliferated all throughout the mainstream media to counter the reporting of Trump’s Tweet on Spygate.

    69 / 146.) Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) said during a Fox News Sunday interview that President Donald Trump’s advisers should consider leaving the White House if Trump “continues to publicly disparage the nation’s intelligence community and cast doubt on the evidence that Russia interfered in the 2016 election” before saying:  “if there were any evidence that President Trump committed any crime with regard to Russia, [the Ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee] Adam Schiff would have leaked it”.

    70 / 147.)  It was reported that President Trump was looking into revoking the security clearances of several top Obama-era intelligence and law enforcement officials, including former FBI Director James Comey, former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe, former CIA Director John Brennan, former National Security Adviser Susan Rice and former Director of National Security Michael Hayden (who worked under President George W. Bush).  Of course, Congress pushed back against revoking the clearances.

    71 / 149.) The New York Times reported that Special Counsel Robert Mueller was now examining President Trump’s tweets in a wide-ranging Obstruction of Justice inquiry.  But the times did not identify Mueller in that article as the man who delivered highly enriched stolen uranium to Russia in 2009 on behalf of Hillary Clinton.

    72 / 150.)  Pursuant to # 53 / 113 above, Republicans began impeachment proceedings against Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein before backing down once again; this time saying “contempt charges will do”.

    73 / 153.) As the New York Times publisher A.G. Sulzberger warned President Trump about his “divisive but increasingly dangerous” language that could generate potential” violence against reporters, it was reported that The New York Times had ignored over 538 violent attacksagainst Trump supporters since the 2016 election season.

    74 / 154.) In another Tweetstorm, President Donald Trump challenged Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s “conflicts of interest” and questioned why Mueller wasn’t “looking at all of the criminal activity & real Russian Collusion” by the Democrats.

    Guns R Us

    75 / 157.Just as a headlined-link on The Drudge Report revealed porn websites as dominating online traffic rankings for all internet categories in United States, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared sex addiction a mental-health disorder termed ‘compulsive sexual behaviour’.

    76 / 158.) It was reported that the United States, under United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, had signed on to a measure to track every gun in America.

    77 / 159.) Ontario police identified the man responsible for a shooting rampage in Toronto’s Greektown as Faisal Hussain. The Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for the shooting.  In response to the shooting, Toronto Mayor John Tory told reporters the city has a gun problem, with weapons too readily available to too many people.

    78 / 160.) Since the tragic shooting in Parkland Florida in February 2018, the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence has tracked and recorded a whopping 55 new gun control measures in 26 states.

    Big Brother Cometh

    79 / 162.) Because a Democratic Party caucus server was replaced by a look-alike, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) stated there was “no evidence” that house computer systems were compromised by Pakistani-American information technology worker Imran Awan.  The judge presiding over the case was Tanya Chutka, who was appointed by Obama after years of contributing to him, was a partner at a very Clinton-friendly law firm, and her husband was also appointed by Obama to the D.C. Superior Court in 2011.

    80 / 163.) On July 4th, 2018 it was reported that a Facebook algorithm flagged the Declaration of Independence as hate speech. Ten days later, Facebook’s non-biased algorithms also censored a new gospel song, entitled “What Would Heaven Look Like”, for political content.

    81 / 165.) It was revealed that Facebook uses foreign state-run news outlets to online fact-check U.S. “conservative sites into oblivion”.

    82 / 167.) In the aftermath of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) claiming that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein had “personally redacted information and threatened House Intelligence Committee staffers” and Republican Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert telling a TV morning show that he believed government personnel working for Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein were spying on his office, NBC News reported the following:

    Powerful GOP Rep. Jim Jordan accused of turning blind eye to sexual abuse as Ohio State wrestling coach

    “It’s sad for me to hear that he’s denying,” said one former wrestler. “I don’t know why he would, unless it’s a cover-up.”

    83 / 168.)  It was later reported that the law firm investigating the accusations against Jim Jordan were also involved in the FISA abuse scandal by assisting both the Hillary Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee to fund the now discredited Steele Dossier.

    84 / 173.) After the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that Hispanic unemployment in the United States had reached its lowest level ever, in the 45 years since the agency first started keeping records on the statistic, the findings were ignored by the Spanish television networks, Univision and Telemundo.

    85 / 179.) Jack Burkman, a Washington-based attorney and lobbyist who has worked with a private investigative team to find the killer of DNC staffer, Seth Rich, claimed to have found a “credible” witness who will identify the murderers as “a current DEA (Drug Enforcement Administration) agent” and a “current ATF (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives) agent”.

    86 / 186.) Lawmakers clashed during a contentious hearing over claims that social media platforms and tech companies are biased against conservative viewpoints.

    87 / 188.)  Rick Newman, a Senior Columnist for the Finance Division of 5th most visited online platform in the world said President Trump made “Hillary Clinton and her husband Bill look like ethical exemplars” and lamented “Trump’s knifing of American law-enforcement agencies, while on a podium at the Helsinki “summit” with American enemy Vladimir Putin”.

    88 / 190.) Just two days after Twitter told Congress that they aren’t politically biased when censoring content, the online social media platform was caught censoring conservative journalists with site-wide shadowbans.

    89 / 191.) Days later, it was again reported that Twitter was shadow-banning prominent Republicans including the RNC chair and Trump Jr.’s spokesman.

    90 / 192.) President Donald Trump accused Twitter regarding the company’s “discriminatory and illegal practice,” and vowed in a tweet to “look into” the matter and Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), the Chair of the House Intelligence Committee, said he was looking at “legal remedies” to deal with Twitter’s censorship of conservatives.

    91 / 193.)  A study for the House Judiciary’s Constitution & Civil Justice Subcommittee showed that Facebook has eliminated 93% of traffic to top conservative websites since the 2016 election.

    92 / 195.) In early July, “it came out that among Facebook’s myriad algorithmically induced advertising categories was an entry for users whom the platform’s data mining systems believed might be interested in treason against their government”, causing a contributor writing for Forbes Magazine to question if Facebook was the “ultimate government surveillance tool”.

    93 / 196.) New York Governor Andrew Cuomo revealed that facial recognition camerasinstalled at bridge and tunnel toll plazas across New York City were scanning every driver’s face and feeding them into a massive database.

    94 / 198.)  A study revealed that immigration had received more airtime on the three broadcast evening news shows than any other policy topic during the 18 months of the Trump presidency with 92% “relentlessly hostile to the administration” and “just 8% positive” while all networks “virtually ignored law enforcement or anyone harmed by illegal immigration”.

    95 / 208.) Twitter hired academics from institutions including Oxford University and the University of Amsterdam to study the spread of “hate speech” and combat “intolerant discourse”. Of course, the woman selected to help Twitter develop the algorithm which will target the “hate speech” was reported as a hardcore leftist who hates President Donald Trump.

    Conclusion

    America continues to break apart as the Political Left grows increasingly unhinged and, now, more violent.  Immigration and the battle for the Supreme Court further divide the country just as Socialism now threatens a burgeoning rift within the Democratic Party.

    On the economic front, interest rates continued to rise as deficits soared and rumors of trade wars, and threats of literal wars, created a sense of impending unease around the world.

    As the Political Left leveled accusations against Trump for alienating allies while coddling to Russia’s Putin, Trump’s domestic battle raged on across many fronts – from Cohen and sex crimes, to the ongoing work of Special Counsel Robert Mueller and Attorney Rod Rosenstein as they continue to fabricate a political gallows and knot an imaginary rope into a legal noose around the President’s neck.

    Nevertheless, as the nation divides in two like Sean Hannity’s and Rachel Maddow’s childhood friends at a junior high dance, Big Brother runs forward, unencumbered, and with ever-accelerating  speed; in an obvious race to the inevitable finish-line at the end of nowhere good.

    In the full compilation of 209 transitional revelations for July, and according to this blogger, 28 could be considered making America (and/or the world) great again, with 27 as being neutral or questionable, and 154 as representing the ever-accelerating slide into Orwellian hell.  These counts were 32, 8, and 104 last month and 40, 8, and 75, respectively, the month prior.

    Does it appear the nation is transitioning in the right direction?  Or is it too soon to tell?

    Can even a fork in the road make a difference at this point for good or bad?

    We’re about to find out.

    In the meantime, prepare to round the next corner toward the midterm elections in a final thrust.

    It’s August.

  • Iran Preparing Massive Military Exercise To "Demonstrate Ability" To Block Persian Gulf: Report

    After days of heated barbs exchange back and forth between Washington and Tehran, Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard forces are expected to begin a major exercise in the Persian Gulf as soon as the next 48 hours, which could be aimed at demonstrating their ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, CNN reports citing two US officials.

    “We are aware of the increase in Iranian naval operations within the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. We are monitoring it closely, and will continue to work with our partners to ensure freedom of navigation and free flow of commerce in international waterways,” Captain William Urban, chief spokesman for US Central Command, told CNN.

    The Strait of Hormuz – a strategically critical passageway linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea which is crucial to shipping of global energy supplies – has emerged as a focal point in the escalating war of words between presidents Trump and Rouhani, after Iran threatened to block off the Persian Gulf if the US proceeds with fully implementing oil export sanctions on Iran.

    Officials told CNN that while the US sees no immediate signs of hostile intent from Iran, the IRGC show of force has US military intelligence “deeply concerned” for three fundamental reasons according to officials:

    • The exercise comes as rhetoric from the IRGC towards the US has accelerated in recent days.
    • It appears the IRGC is ramping up for a larger exercise this year than similar efforts in the past.
    • The timing is unusual. These types of IRGC exercises typically happen much later in the year.

    In the US military’s assessment, the IRGC has assembled a fleet of more than 100 boats, many of them small fast moving vessels. It’s expected Iranian air and ground assets including coastal defensive missile batteries could be involved, while  hundreds of Iranian troops are expected to participate and some regular Iranian forces could be involved as well.

    The IRGC exercise comes as the US has only one major warship, the USS The Sullivans inside the Persian Gulf, several officials say. Other US warships are nearby and there are numerous combat aircraft in the region.

    The US military has been trying to encourage other nations in the region, especially Saudi Arabia to take a strong line on keeping the Gulf open in the face of rising Iranian rhetoric. They have also expressed concern about keeping open the waterways off Yemen where Iranian backed rebels have attacked oil tankers.

    Defense Secretary James Mattis, responding to rising Iranian rhetoric said on Friday, “Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. They’ve done that previously in years past. They saw the international community put — dozens of nations of the international community put their naval forces in for exercises to clear the straits.”

    And the punchline:

    “Clearly, this would be an attack on international shipping, and — and it would have, obviously, an international response to reopen the shipping lanes with whatever that took, because of the world’s economy depends on that energy, those energy supplies flowing out of there.”

    And with the public response to any attack on Syria now virtually nil after two consecutive military strikes, if Trump feels he is in urgent need of an international distraction from mounting domestic problems, namely the upcoming conclusion of the Mueller probe which now includes questions about obstruction of justice, Trump may have no choice than to aim for Iran… and outcome Israel would be delighted to assist with.

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Today’s News 1st August 2018

  • Spain Overtakes Italy For Migrant Arrivals

    There were dramatic scenes on a Spanish beach packed with tourists on Friday when a dinghy crammed with migrants landed in the surf. Its occupants quickly scattered among the holidaymakers with the police in pursuit. It was a busy weekend for the Spanish authorities who managed to rescue nearly 1,000 migrants from the Mediterranean with 200 pulled from 10 boats on Saturday.

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    Even though Europe has experienced a dramatic decline in migrant arrivals along the Mediterranean coast, Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that more than 1,500 people have died attempting to make the crossing for the fifth year in a row.

    While the amount of arrivals in Italy has fallen considerably, Spain is experiencing a surge in traffic. Between 1 January and 25 July 2017, 94,448 migrants made their way to Italy and that fell to 18,130 during the same period in 2018, according to the IOM.

    Infographic: Spain Overtakes Italy For Migrant Arrivals  | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Spain only counted 6,513 Mediterranean arrivals in the first seven months of 2017 and that has now climbed steeply to 20,992 between 1 January and 25 July 2018. Libya has clamped down on human traffickers and that has resulted in higher numbers of people attempting to make the crossing from Algeria and Morocco.

  • "Doomsday Weapon" – How Could The West Respond To Russia's Underwater Nuke Drone?

    Mikhail Khodarenok, military commentator for Gazeta.ru, via RT.com,

    US and British navies could counter Russia’s nuclear-powered autonomous torpedo, Poseidon, by using undersea sensors and anti-submarine aircraft, writes Covert Shores website. But is this really a viable tactic?

    The development of the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), originally known as ‘Status-6’, was first mentioned in November 2015. Western media later dubbed the submarine drone a doomsday weapon. 

    On March 1, 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially confirmed the weapon’s existence in his annual address to the Federal Assembly.

    We have developed unmanned submersible vehicles that can move at great depths – I would say extreme depths – intercontinentally, at a speed multiple times higher than the speed of submarines, cutting-edge torpedoes and all kinds of surface vessels, said Putin.

    It is reported that the main goal of the torpedo is to deliver a thermonuclear warhead to enemy shores in order to destroy important coastal infrastructure and industrial objects, as well as ensure massive damage to the enemy’s territory by subjecting vast areas to radioactive tsunamis and other devastating consequences of a nuclear explosion.

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    Another potential use for the Poseidon torpedo is to strike US aircraft carrier battle groups.

    On December 8, 2016, US intelligence reported that, on November 27, Russia had conducted a test of a nuclear-powered UUV, launched from a B-90 Sarov-class submarine. In February, the Pentagon officially added Status-6 to Russia’s nuclear triad by mentioning it in the US Nuclear Posture Review.

    At present, the technical specifications of Poseidon torpedoes are classified information. So far, it is known that the UUV is over 19 meters in length and almost two meters in width. Earlier, it was assumed that Poseidon would be equipped with a 100-megaton thermonuclear warhead that could obliterate entire coastal cities and cause destruction further inland, triggering tsunamis laden with radioactive fallout.

    However, according to the latest information, the power of the Poseidon’s warhead is just two megatons. But this does not change much. This amount of nuclear material is still enough to destroy large coastal cities, naval bases and cause a tsunami.

    In addition, a warhead of this class could easily wipe out any carrier strike group of the US Navy.

    According to some reports, Poseidon can develop speeds up to 70 knots, which is faster than any US nuclear submarine or anti-ship torpedo. The operational depth of the Poseidon is more than a thousand meters, which also significantly exceeds the capabilities of US submarines.

    According to Covert Shores, the new Russian UUV can be located with the help of Anti-Submarine Warfare Continuous Trail Unmanned Vessel (ACTUV).

    ACTUV drone is a DARPA-financed US project to develop an unmanned ship designed to detect and track enemy submarines with the help of sonars. It is assumed that the vessel will not be equipped with weapons of any kind and will be used solely for reconnaissance purposes – however, this may change in the future.

    Sea floor sensor networks, including sonar buoys could also be deployed by maritime patrol aircraft, such as Boeing’s P-8 Poseidon, to locate the Russian UUV, according to Covert Shores.

    Strangely enough, Covert Shores doesn’t mention the SOSUS system, Rear Admiral Arkady Syroezhko, ex-chief of the autonomous vehicles program of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of Russia’s Armed Forces, told Gazeta.ru.

    SOSUS is the US sound surveillance system for detecting and identifying submarines. It should be noted, however, that this system will be deployed only on the frontiers – for example, in the GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, and the UK) gap, along the North Cape – Medvezhy Island line, in the Denmark Strait, and in a couple of other places. So it would be a mistake to believe that the SOSUS system is deployed in all parts of the global ocean. In the Pacific, for instance, it is hardly used at all.

    Syroezhko believes that, when it comes to tracking underwater objects, the key thing is to select the right location for the tracking system. But it’s very difficult to determine where Poseidon might appear, given its almost unlimited range and high speed.

    Also, according to Syroezhko, tracking Poseidon is only half the battle. To destroy the UUV, you need to have a permanent and combat-ready counter system, which means having forces and equipment on constant alert and ready for deployment. But the US doesn’t have such a system yet. To deploy such a system would require substantial financial resources — even for the US.

    As for the capabilities of our hypothetical enemies to destroy the Poseidon, they are extremely limited.

    Today the MU90 Impact is the only NATO torpedo capable of reaching the depth of 1,000 meters,Konstantin Makienko, deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Gazeta.ru.

    The expert emphasizes that a single torpedo of this class costs over $2 million. Also, according to other military experts, even in a high-speed mode (92 km/h), which decreases its range significantly, this torpedo is still slower than the Poseidon.

    Makienko says that the Mark 54, which is the fastest US Navy torpedo, operates at 74 km/h. He believes that it is not capable of catching up with Poseidon or reaching its operational depth.

    Until we see a live experiment, any claims about the potential detection or destruction of the Poseidon are completely groundless. Thus far, all we hear is just words,” says the former Chief of Staff of the Russian Navy Viktor Kravchenko.

    Currently no hypothetical adversary has a weapon capable of overtaking the Poseidon UUV at its operational depth or reaching its speeds, says Syroezhko.

  • India To Purchase US Missile Shield For National Capital Region

    To safeguard major cities across India, the government is in discussion with Washington to procure the next-generation air defense system to protect the National Capital Region (NCR) from Chinese or Pakistani aerial threats.

    The process for procuring the National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System-II (NASAMS-II), a distributed and networked medium to long-range air-defense system, is currently underway, which includes new missile shields to replace outdated systems.

    Indian sources say the defense acquisitions council (DAC), chaired by defense minister Nirmala Sitharaman, has approved the “acceptance of necessity (AoN) for the acquisition of the NASAMS-II worth around $1 billion.”

    Sources told The Times of India that the Delhi Area Air Defence Plan, which includes Rashtrapati Bhawan, Parliament, North, and South Blocks, could soon deploy these new multi-tiered air defense networks to adequately secure its airspace from incoming fighter aircraft, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).

    The NASAMS-II, armed with the three-dimensional Sentinel radars, short and medium-range rockets, multiple ground launchers, fire-distribution centers, and command and control units to rapidly detect, track and shoot down multiple airborne threats, is the same air defense system embedded in Washington, D.C, NATO countries, and Israeli cities.

    India’s move to quickly acquire NASAMS-II comes as the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is nearing completion of developing its two-tier ballistic missile defense (BMD) shield, which is designed to intercept nuclear missiles over the country.

    “Once the Phase-I of the BMD system is operational, it will be deployed to protect cities like Delhi and Mumbai from long-range missiles with a 2,000-km strike range. The NASAMS, in turn, is geared towards intercepting cruise missiles, aircraft and drones,” said a source.

    The Times of India notes that the government has kept a $2 billion procurement of two dozen Sikorsky MH-60 Black Hawk helicopters on pending status till the “two-plus-two” dialogue between New Delhi and Washington on September 06.

    Before granting AoN on the MH-60 Black Hawks, India wants to “assess the US response” on different subjects, including its sanctions regime under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) that attempts to block India from purchasing Russian armaments or Iranian energy.

    “The AoN for the helicopters, which are used to detect, track and hunt enemy submarines, has been deferred till September. Earlier also, it was not fielded in the DAC after US abruptly cancelled the two-plus-two dialogue (between Sitharaman and foreign minister Sushma Swaraj with their American counterparts, Jim Mattis and Mike Pompeo) slated for July,” said a source. Indian sources later explained to The Times of India that it was due to US’s upcoming engagement with North Korea.

    The Times of India said Washington is moving towards granting a waiver to India from CAATSA, which means certain trade restrictions pertaining to Russia and Iran could be lifted.

    India is nearing the final stages in acquiring the Russian S-400 Triumf missile system despite strong criticism from Washington, which could be the trade-off Washington needs to solidify the NASAMS-II transfer. Since 2007, Washington has sold $15 billion in military weapons to India.

    As part of efforts to strengthen the country’s aerial security, India is in the process of deploying missile shields over critical cities across the country as the probability of conflict between China and Pakistan increases.

  • "You Are Criminalizing Diplomacy!" Professor Stephen Cohen Slams Neocon Max Boot In CNN Debate

    Stephen Cohen schooled prominent ‘Never Trump’ neocon and Council on Foreign Relations member Max Boot on CNN’s Anderson Cooper this week on the Trump-Putin Helsinki summit and general charges related to ‘Russiagate’. 

    It’s worth watching especially as it underscores why recognized academic experts are rarely given airtime on the mainstream networks if their perspective lies outside the accepted media group-think on Russia. 

    “I‘ve been studying Russia for 45 years,” Professor Stephen Cohen said as the debate got heated. “I‘ve lived in Russia, and I’ve lived here.”

    But predictably Boot cut him off, leveling the standard ad hominem that’s become the standard fallback retort to any ‘contrarian’ analysis, saying Cohen has been “consistently an apologist for Russia those 45 years.”

    “I don’t do defamation of people, I do serious analysis of serious national security problems,” Professor Cohen responded. “When people like you call people like me, and not only me, but people more eminent than me, apologists for Russia because we don’t agree with your analysis, you are criminalizing diplomacy and detente and you are the threat to American national security, end of story.”

    “Why do you have to defame somebody you don’t agree with?” Cohen continued. “They used to do that in the old Soviet Union.”

    Cohen’s credentials as professor emeritus at Princeton and New York University, author of numerous books on Russian history, and among the world’s most recognized analysts on modern Russia are without parallel when compared to the usual neocon ‘experts’ like Boot, who regularly appear on the network panels and in the op-ed columns.

    Cohen said he doesn’t find anything “unusual” about the Helsinki summit — especially nothing worth the level of broad 24/7 media push back that Trump’s private meeting with Putin received. Cohen and Boot sparred over what exactly the two leaders may have discussed, including possibly a resolution related to Russia’s annexation of the Crimea. 

    Anderson Cooper posed the following question with an incredulous look on his face: “You’re believing Vladimir Putin on this?”

    Cohen responded, “You have to take Putin’s word this is what they talked about,” and added, “I don’t want to shock you, but I believe Vladimir Putin on several things.”

    Of course this was too much for the Cooper and Boot — the latter which promptly charged Cohen with being a “Putin apologist”

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    Boot said elsewhere in the interview that “a lot of intelligence officials think that there is something highly suspect in the relationship between Putin and Trump” based merely on the supposed unwillingness of Trump to level personal criticism against the Russian leader the he does others. 

    Cohen responded, “I have no idea what Mr. Boot is talking about… He wants Trump to threaten Russia? Why would we threaten Russia?”

    Boot followed with, “Because they’re attacking us, Professor Cohen. Russia is attacking us right now according to Trump’s own director of national intelligence.”

    After an intense back-and-forth in which Boot again lazily accused the scholar of being a Putin apologist, Cohen concluded, “I think that Mr Boot would have been happy if Trump had waterboarded Putin at the summit and made him confess.” He said, “Trump carried out an act of diplomacy fully consistent with the history of American presidency. Let us see what comes out of it, then judge.”

    * * *

    Professor Cohen has a history of challenging powerful media figures, which is why his appearances on networks like CNN or MSNBC are very infrequent, despite his status as a world authority. 

    For example at the height of the 2014 Ukraine crisis he made Christiane Amanpour so frazzled that she began yelling antagonistically for show host Wolf Blitzer “to be very careful” in allowing what she called “pro-Russian” views to be expressed across CNN airwaves.

    Christiane Amanpour in 2014: We cannot allow “pro-Russian” perspectives on CNN! (begins at 2:25 mark)

  • Florida Launches Gun Confiscation Program, 467 Forced To Surrender Guns

    More than 467 people in Florida have been ordered by the government to surrender their firearms since March under a new law passed after the deadly Parkland shooting in February, according to a local ABC broadcaster.

    The Risk Protection Order, is a “Red Flag” law that Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) signed several weeks after former student Nikolas Cruz killed 17 people at Stoneman Douglas High School in March, allows the local government to disarm the civilian population if a judge determines they are a threat to themselves or others.

    Under the new law, state officials have the ability to file risk-protection petitions against irresponsible gun owners in court, which could result in local law enforcement stripping that individual of the second amendment.

    Recently, Sgt. Jason Schmittendorf, who is employed by the Pinellas County Sheriff’s office, told ABC News that Tampa Bay officers have “taken in about 200 firearms and around 30,000 rounds of ammunition.”

    “You’ve got an AK-47 style here and an AR-15 style there. We’ve got some rifles and a cache of handguns,” said Schmittendorf, who showed the ABC News team some of the weapons confiscated under the new law.

    Sgt. Jason Schmittendorf of Pinellas Counties Risk Protection Order Unit speaks with ABC reporter Katie LaGrone (Source/ ABC) 

    Here are some of the weapons confiscated by officers (Source/ ABC)

    The Sheriff’s office has assembled a five-person team devoted to working only risk protection cases. Since March, the group has filed 64 risk protection petitions in court, the second highest number of cases in the state. Broward County leads with 88 risk protection petitions (as of early-July).

    “It’s a constitutional right to bear arms and when you are asking the court to deprive somebody of that right we need to make sure we are making good decisions, right decisions and the circumstances warrant it,” explained Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri when asked by ABC News why he decided to form an entire unit dedicated to upholding the new law.

    To get more clarity on Sheriff Gualtieri’s thought process, he also happens to be the chairman of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Public Safety Commission, a task force designed to prevent future school shootings.

    Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri (Source/ ABC)

    Since March, ABC has learned that the new law has had over 467 risk protection cases filed across the state (as of July 24th), according to the FL Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (DOACS). DOACS is in charge of gun permitting in Florida and is informed when a petition is filed. An agency spokesperson told ABC that “over a quarter of risk protection cases filed so far involve concealed license firearm holders whose license temporarily is suspended once the order is granted.”

    However, attorney Kendra Parris — who believes the new law could be disastrous — disagrees with the idea that state officials are making the right decisions. “I think we’re doing this because it makes us feel safer,” said Parris, in an interview with ABC. “What’s wrong with that,” asked reporter Katie LaGrone. “It violates the constitution,” responded Parris.

    Kendra Parris, Attorney, seen in an interview with reporter Katie LaGrone  (Source/ ABC)

    After four-and-a-half months of the new law, Parris believes Florida’s version of the “Red Flag” law has revealed some important grey areas that need to be addressed: including state officials targeting citizens with risk-protection petitions who do not have histories of violence or mental illness.

    “These are individuals who are often exercising their first amendment rights online, who are protecting constitutionally protected speech online,” she said. “Maybe it was odious, maybe people didn’t like it but they were hit with the risk protection order because of it,” she said.

    Parris told ABC News that she represented University of Central Florida student, Chris Velasquez, who made national headlines in March when Orlando police filed a risk protection petition after he spoke highly of mass shooters on social media.

    In another case, Parris describes, a minor, who said she wanted to kill people on social media.

    Parris mentioned that in both cases, the individuals did not own guns and both won their court cases.

    “The people whom I’ve represented fought back because they care about their future not because they cared about owning firearms,” she told ABC.

    Parris suggested that the law needs to be redefined to only target citizens with proof of gun ownership or who have histories of attempting to purchase one. In addition, she said the law needs to have a better understanding of who is an “imminent” threat and who is a “threat.”

    “As it’s written now the harm can be in 6 months or maybe in a year this person will go crazy, we don’t know but out of an abundance of caution we need to get this risk protection in place,” she said.

    According to ABC News, Pinellas County has the majority of risk protection cases in the state and most involve people with mental illness.

    With “Red Flag” Laws popping up across the country, it seems as the government’s plan to strip civilians of their firearms is already in motion.

  • Japan, China Markets Turmoiling

    As the first full trading day since The BoJ shifted policy ever-so-gently, Japanese bond yields have blown out, spiking to 11bps. At the same time, Chinese stocks and Yuan are sliding on the heels of Trump’s tariff escalation.

    It seems no one was interested in buying 10Y JGBs as Kuroda faces his first test…

    “The market is more likely to test an upside to bond yields sooner or later given the BOJ allows wider deviations in the 10-year yield, and the yen will probably strengthen during the process,” Kato said.

    The policy tweak “points to a distant-future exit and thus is a catalyst for yen strength in the medium-to-long term.”

    This is the widest intraday range since 2016…

     

    The offshore yuan slipped as China weakened its fixing for the currency to the lowest since May 2017.

    “The tariff issue is ongoing, I think it’s a negotiating tactic,” Nick Griffin, chief investment officer at Munro Partners, said on Bloomberg Television.

    “How much we take of this as real and affecting earnings is questionable at this stage. In terms of an actual earnings effect, it’s not that big at the moment, it’s mainly just sentiment and risk appetite and for that it’s a moving feast.”

    And that is continuing to weigh on Chinese stocks at the break…

    And US Futures have been unable to rebound for now…

     

  • The Real 'Useful Idiots': How Our Intelligence Agencies Helped Putin Weaken America

    Authored by John O’Connor, op-ed via The Daily Caller,

    Today, no informed American citizen should have any doubt but that the Russian government attempted to meddle in the 2016 presidential election, one clear purpose having been to sow discord in the electorate. Many of these citizens, on both the left and right, have as well questioned President Trump’s rhetorical conflation of the question of Russian meddling, clearly proven, with the issue of Russian collusion, glaringly unproven. But this rhetorical confusion, obvious to all, is of little serious consequence beyond the political sniping it engenders.

    However, such resulting kerfuffles, unfortunately, divert focus from a far more critical issue of whether our intelligence agencies, directed by politicized partisans, have analytically conflated this Russian meddling with a Russian bias for Trump, in turn corroborating in their assessment the Russian collusion narrative.

    If such conflation has occurred, our intelligence agencies were either shamefully duped, or, worse, were enticed into intentionally framing a disliked political figure. In either case, these agencies would have helped Putin sow discord in America, the very wrongdoing they were sworn to investigate fully and fairly.

    While such questions demand, as would be expected, declassification and production of key documents, quite fortunately American citizens are not foreclosed by agency stonewalling from examining the infamous Steele dossier for at least partial and tentative answers. What these documents suggest to any critical thinker is that either because of frank partisan dishonesty or dumbfounding credulity, born of political bias, these former officials have thrown our country into divisive turmoil, weakening it beyond Vladimir Putin’s fondest dreams, as well hurting America’s standing in the eyes of the world.

    Before we delve deeply into this subject, let’s examine prefatorily what this Steele dossier is and what it isn’t. Many on the right see the Steele dossier as the flawed beginning of the Russian collusion investigation, just as many on the left had viewed it earlier as both the start and the solid heart of the investigation. Both are in error: the Steele dossier was in fact the Hail Mary pass thrown by American intelligence to get a FISA warrant after seven months of failure to prove an electoral conspiracy.

    While now discredited, it figures prominently in Congressional accusations against deposed officials John Brennan, James Comey, Peter Strzok, James Clapper and Bruce Ohr. For the past several months the debate on the Steele dossier has been whether it is, as the anti-Trumpers would have it, merely an “unverified” report which may ultimately be proven, or, as the Congressional majority would argue, a screed manufactured out of whole cloth.

    While this is an important argument, to be sure, the more compelling analysis is a deciphering of the meaning of the dossier under the assumption that it is literally true. What we mean by “literally true” is not that Trump and Putin colluded because Putin wanted Trump to win, but rather that it is true that Kremlin sources verified the collusion narrative to Steele researchers. If they did, the implications would be profound.

    If Kremlin sources in fact conveyed the Russia-Trump collusion narrative to Steele, the narrative would thereby likely be untrue. This is because Putin’s Kremlin would never easily and voluntarily reveal its true plans to a group affiliated with America political interests and Western intelligence, which the Steele/Nellie Ohr group obviously represented.

    In addition to relying on the shadowy Sergei Millian for confirmation of the collusion narrative on behalf of the Trump campaign, the Steele dossier purported to rely on numerous “Kremlin sources” or sources “close to Putin” or other high Russian officials. These supposedly knowledgeable sources lent the Steele dossier its formerly-touted authoritative power. But even though it is now acknowledged that the Steele dossier is a form of rubbish, the degree of stink debated, we should not merely toss it into the trash, because it still has much to tell us.

    That is so because we can all agree that any substantive statement issuing from the Kremlin, or officials close to Putin or other top officials, would likely have been approved by Putin himself. Let’s put it another way: if a Kremlin official disclosed a purported strategy of Putin he did not want revealed, would he see his skin curdle, or would his internal organs liquify, as the first symptom he had been poisoned by the SVR?

    In any case, let us assume some degree of professional standards practiced by ex-MI6 agent Steele and his main researcher, Nellie Ohr, who previously worked for Open Source Works, the CIA’s in-house open source research shop. We would not reasonably expect that they simply fictionalized their sources, but, rather, actually spoke to individuals who claimed knowledge, even if in fact only hearsay and rumor.

    We can further assume that Steele and Ohr had no means of coercing reluctant, and therefore likely true, statements from these sources. Indeed, a cursory reading of the dossier describes a group of highly talkative sources readily volunteering information. It is this eager divulging of information which cause any critical observer to assume that anything offered was Kremlin misdirection.

    Given these unassailably logical suppositions, it is very easy to view the Steele dossier as one big piece of Putin/Kremlin disinformation designed to hurt America. The ready connivance of Russian asset Sergei Millian, falsely posing as a Trump insider, only corroborates this assessment. What was said to Steele is important not for its substantive truth, but as a true reflection of falsehoods Putin wants us to confront uncomfortably, which we are now doing. If Putin wanted Clinton and/or her close allies in the partisan CIA and FBI directorships to believe in Trump-Russian collusion, and, inevitably to politicize it, he would have caused the disclosure of exactly what he did disclose to the willfully credulous Steele group.

    No intelligent person, however, should conclude from this scenario that Putin wanted Clinton to win, a deduction that goes a bridge too far, much like the simplistic inference that Putin wanted Trump to win. After all, Putin did, we must believe from the Mueller indictment of GRU operatives, hack and release Clinton emails. Indeed, it is reasonable to believe that Putin thought hobbling the sure winner, Clinton, would be more beneficial to Russia than harming the sure loser. That said, the Steele Dossier destroys the claim that Putin’s motive was a Trump win, since such is impossible to square with treasonous and salacious anti-Trump slurs Putin seemingly condoned in those dossier documents.

    But we can come to several less extreme, more reasonable assessments. First, we can reasonably believe that Putin’s motives were mainly to sow discord in the electorate and weaken our democracy already riven by partisan discord. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, reading the Steele dossier should tell any critical reader that Trump and Putin could not have been even tentatively colluding. If in fact they were colluding, would Putin have authorized such a confirmatory narrative to be released? Alternatively, if against Putin’s wishes, would Kremlin operatives have risked their lives to reveal the plot? Neither scenario seems credible. From the moment the ink was dry on the phony Steele dossier, John Brennan, James Comey, James Clapper, Peter Strzok and Bruce Ohr should all have known there was no electoral collusion.

    Other events, of which these officials knew well, corroborate this collusion. If there was a collusion conspiracy in full flower, would Russian agents have approached George Papadopoulos in April 2016, to tell of hacked emails? If the collusion narrative had an ounce of truth to it, why would anyone think that Papadopoulos needed either recruiting or informing? If American intelligence really thought there was a collusion conspiracy being pursued, why would they think that Peter Stone would be interested in purchasing for Trump from an FBI informant, Henry Greenberg, hacked DNC emails in exchange for payment of $2 million? Wouldn’t the conspiracy already underway have set methods, means and terms of colluding previously agreed upon? Why would American intelligence have Stephan Halper approach Papadopoulos, Carter Page and Stephen Miller, in July 2016, if they believed the plot was already in existence, as the Steele dossier suggested? In short, an intelligence officer has to either be criminally dishonest or frighteningly credulous to have bought the Trump-Putin collusion story. There never should have been an investigation left open after the laughably phony Steele dossier, preceded by seven months of investigative goose eggs. That an investigation did proceed, to the point of a thrice-renewed FISA warrant, followed by the sneaky Comey’s chumming up of the Mueller investigation, could only have gladdened Putin’s heart.

    The collusion investigation has roiled the country, dividing it even more stridently into red-blue factionalism. The American president has just met with his Russian counterpart, amid the propitiously-timed indictment by a special counsel of twelve GRU agents. This strife, which includes absurd partisan attacks on an obviously thin-skinned president in Trump, accompanied by shrieks from a herd of shallow journalists, has presented a seriously divided and weakened front to Putin. Trump’s amateurish press conference with Putin provided only icing on this already divided cake.

    So clearly these former American intelligence officers have weakened our country, and have wittingly or unwittingly done Putin’s bidding. How much of this is a product of fraud, and how much is simply partisan credulity, should be a serious issue of future studies, hopefully soon to be accelerated with a declassification of pertinent Russiagate-related documents.

    If in fact the Russiagate investigation had a sound basis, one would think that, in addition to causing nasty leaks, these officials would be the loudest proponents of the declassification and release of key documents elucidating the grounds for the probe. So their present diffidence should be seen as a big tip-off as to what these documents will show and what they will not show.

    Brennan, Comey and the rest likely know that if key documents are to be produced, their current, absurd cries of treason will be their last hurrah. Indeed, logic suggests that they have been either dishonest or, yes, grossly negligent, in the discharge of their duties, in either case growing out of blinding partisanship. So it seems apparent that there have been no more useful idiots, pushing Putin’s malevolent designs, than the recent heads of American intelligence. We hope – without confidence – that they will soon get their just due, and American intelligence will return to an honest, nonpartisan professional enterprise.

    *  *  *

    John D. O’Connor is the San Francisco attorney who represented W. Mark Felt during his revelation as Deep Throat in 2005. O’Connor is the co-author of “A G-Man’s Life: The FBI, Being ‘Deep Throat,’ and the Struggle for Honor in Washington” and is a producer of “Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House” (2017), written and directed by Peter Landesman.

  • Do Americans View Their Trade Relationships As Fair?

    Understandably, most people are not experts on the subject of trade.

    But, as Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes,  while the average person won’t likely be able to guess the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico, perceptions of trade relationships in the public eye are still a crucial indicator.

    If the majority of Americans think they are getting the short end of the stick on international trade, this sentiment ultimately affects how politicians campaign, how policy decisions are made, and the success of the wider economy.

    U.S. PERCEPTIONS OF TRADE

    In today’s chart, we break down the data from a recent Gallup poll on how Americans view the country’s trade relationships.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

    At a high level, here is how it looks by country:

    Source: Gallup, June 18-24, 2018

    The majority of Americans think relationships with Canada (65%), the European Union (56%), and Japan (55%) are fair. When it comes to Mexico, respondents are split (44% fair, 46% unfair).

    Meanwhile, it’s clear that most Americans think they are getting the short end of the stick with China, with 62% of respondents describing the relationship as unfair.

    THE CHINA PROBLEM

    China is America’s largest trading partner, so this negative sentiment has meaningful implications.

    The balance of trade that the U.S. has with China is also crystal clear: in 2017, the two countries traded $636 billion of goods, but the vast majority of this number comes from Chinese imports into the United States:

    Most economists actually think that trade deficits are less important than they appear, but this trade gap is also visceral for many people. After all, U.S. exports barely make a dent in the mix, and this sends a message that America is “losing”.

    Between the above trade deficit, intellectual property issues, and jobs going overseas, it’s understandable why the perception of Chinese-U.S. trade is under fire in terms of public sentiment.

    And with the start of the recent trade war, the view on China could sour even further.

    THE PARTISAN PERSPECTIVE

    Interestingly, Democrats and Republicans have very different views on U.S. relationships, including the one with China:

    Source: Gallup, June 18-24, 2018

    Comparing Republicans and Democrats, three different relationships have opinion gaps of about 30%: Canada, European Union, and Mexico. In all cases, Democrats favored the relationships far more than Republicans.

    That said, when it comes to China and Japan, the parties are slightly more aligned.

    Only a minority in both parties thought the U.S. trade relationship with China was fair, with 21% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats in agreement.

  • Buchanan: Will Tribalism Trump Democracy?

    Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    On July 19, the Knesset voted to change the nation’s Basic Law.

    Israel was declared to be, now and forever, the nation-state and national home of the Jewish people. Hebrew is to be the state language.

    Angry reactions, not only among Israeli Arabs and Jews, came swift.

    Allan Brownfeld of the American Council for Judaism calls the law a “retreat from democracy” as it restricts the right of self-determination, once envisioned to include all within Israel’s borders, to the Jewish people. Inequality is enshrined.

    And Israel, says Brownfeld, is not the nation-state of American Jews.

    What makes this clash of significance is that it is another battle in the clash that might fairly be called the issue of our age.

    The struggle is between the claims of tribe, ethnicity, peoples and nations, against the commands of liberal democracy.

    In Europe, the Polish people seek to preserve the historic and ethnic character of their country with reforms that the EU claims violate Poland’s commitment to democracy.

    If Warsaw persists, warns the EU, the Poles will be punished. But which comes first: Poland, or its political system, if the two are in conflict?

    Other nations are ignoring the open-borders requirements of the EU’s Schengen Agreement, as they attempt to block migrants from Africa and the Middle East.

    They want to remain who they are, open borders be damned.

    Britain is negotiating an exit from the EU because the English voted for independence from that transitional institution whose orders they saw as imperiling their sovereignty and altering their identity.

    When Ukraine, in the early 1990s, was considering secession from Russia, Bush I warned Kiev against such “suicidal nationalism.”

    Ukraine ignored President Bush. Today, new questions have arisen.

    If Ukrainians had a right to secede from Russia and create a nation-state to preserve their national identity, do not the Russians in Crimea and the Donbass have the same right — to secede from Ukraine and rejoin their kinsmen in Russia?

    As Georgia seceded from Russia at the same time, why do not the people of South Ossetia have the same right to secede from Georgia?

    Who are we Americans, 5,000 miles away, to tell tribes, peoples and embryonic nations of Europe whether they may form new states to reflect and preserve their national identity?

    Nor are these minor matters.

    At Paris in 1919, Sudeten Germans and Danzig Germans were, against their will, put under Czech and Polish rule. British and French resistance to permitting these peoples to secede and rejoin their kinfolk in 1938 and 1939 set the stage for the greatest war in history.

    Here in America, we, too, appear to be in an endless quarrel about who we are.

    Is America a different kind of nation, a propositional nation, an ideological nation, defined by a common consent to the ideas and ideals of our iconic documents like the Declaration of Independence and Gettysburg Address?

    Or are we like other nations, a unique people with our own history, heroes, holidays, religion, language, literature, art, music, customs and culture, recognizable all over the world as “the Americans”?

    Since 2001, those who have argued that we Americans were given, at the birth of the republic, a providential mission to democratize mankind, have suffered an unbroken series of setbacks.

    Nations we invaded, such as Afghanistan and Iraq, to bestow upon them the blessings of democracy, rose up in resistance. What our compulsive interventionists saw as our mission to mankind, the beneficiaries saw as American imperialism.

    And the culture wars on history and memory continue unabated.

    According to The New York Times, the African-American candidate for governor of Georgia, Stacey Abrams, has promised to sandblast the sculptures of Robert E. Lee, Stonewall Jackson and Jefferson Davis off Stone Mountain.

    The Republican candidate, Brian Kemp, has a pickup truck, which he promises to use to transfer illegal migrants out of Georgia and back to the border.

    In Texas, a move is afoot to remove the name of Stephen Austin from the capital city, as Austin, in the early 1830s, resisted Mexico’s demands to end slavery in Texas when it was still part of Mexico.

    One wonders when they will get around to Sam Houston, hero of Texas’ War of Independence and first governor of the Republic of Texas, which became the second slave republic in North America.

    Houston, after whom the nation’s fourth-largest city is named, was himself, though a Unionist, a slave owner and an opponent of abolition.

    Today, a large share of the American people loathe who we were from the time of the explorers and settlers, up until the end of segregation in the 1960s. They want to apologize for our past, rewrite our history, erase our memories and eradicate the monuments of those centuries.

    The attacks upon the country we were and the people whence we came are near constant.

    And if we cannot live together amicably, secession from one another, personally, politically, and even territorially, seems the ultimate alternative.

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Today’s News 31st July 2018

  • Spain's "Fragile Tolerance" At Risk As Socialist PM Sees "Obligation To Help" Migrants

    With the migrant crisis continuing to peak for Europe’s Mediterranean nations, and as it has lately become politically disastrous for others like Germany, resulting in a half-baked quick fix offered by the European Union to pay out 6,000 euros ($7,000) for each migrant a country takes in, statements coming Spain’s political leaders suggest its reputed “tolerance” as a country open to migrants is increasingly fragile with resources and infrastructure stretched to the limit

    What The Guardian observed earlier this summer now seems to be playing out: though there are happy scenes when migrants finally disembark on Spanish soil, such scenes inevitably “have been followed by the relentless task of coping with new arrivals.”

    In 2017 Spain witnessed a surge of illegal migration, mostly seaborne, but also at its two tiny North African enclaves of Melilla and Ceuta. Image via Soeren Kern

    “Right now we’re seeing double the numbers arriving compared to the same period last year and last year the number was double that of the previous year,” David Ortiz, the Red Cross migrant and refugee department head in the southern coastal port city of Málaga, told Politico. “Can we manage the arrival of 300 people? Yes. But if those 300 people arrive on the same day, it gets difficult,” he added. 

    While others like Italy and Malta have recently turned away large boats full of hundreds, sparking a feud with EU administration and other countries over closing their ports, Spain’s newly in office Socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has signaled an open-door “welcoming” policy of being ready to accept the EU’s call to accept migrants; however a recent surge in seaborne entries could test Spain’s “fragile tolerance” past breaking point.  

    “It is our obligation to help avoid a humanitarian disaster by offering a safe harbor to these people,” Sánchez said after controversially agreeing to accept the Aquarius in June, an emergency rescue vessel carrying over 600 migrants who had been picked up off the Libyan coast, but which had been rejected by both Italy and Malta, sparking a bitter stand-off within the EU.

    As other Mediterranean countries close their ports to unauthorized migrant traffic, western Mediterranean routes have increased, making Spain top the chart in terms of migrant and refugee destination numbers.

    According to the U.N.’s International Organization for Migration as of mid-July about 18,600 migrants had reached Spain by sea from Morocco since the beginning of 2018, which is double the number for the same period in 2017.

    Via the Gatestone Institute 

    Like the EU in its recent roll out of the plan to pay governments for accepting migrants while also funding emergency “transit points” from an EU common budget, it appears Spain is getting ready to merely throw a lot of money at the problem, as Reuters reports Monday

    Spain aims to invest 30 million euros ($35.1 million) in an emergency plan to manage its new status as the main destination for seaborne migration from Africa, the government said.

    The funds, Reuters explains based on a statement from the Prime Minister’s office, “will go toward covering the initial costs of managing arrivals on the beaches, from staff to hand out blankets and food to managing the process of identification and determining whether people qualify for asylum.”

    A new report in Politico on migrant patterns into Spain notes that so far there’s been “relatively little political fallout,” but that “the country’s reputation for moderation on the issue of immigration could soon be tested.” For example, Francisco Camas García, head of the Spanish polling firm Metroscopia, said based on the pollster’s observations, “Spanish society is, overall, a tolerant one, but it’s a fragile tolerance.”

    The Politico report observes that Spain has managed to escape the domestic turmoil facing other European nations with the recent years’ massive uptick in unauthorized or illegal immigration.

    Politico explains:

    Even when the economy hit a slump, between 2008 and 2012, immigration rarely featured on the political agenda. While other EU countries have seen the arrival of anti-immigrant parties, the main new political force in Spain most frequently described as “populist” is the leftist Podemos, which advocates a liberal policy on immigration.

    But while [sociologist Kiko] Llaneras doesn’t forecast a sudden backlash, he does believe that there is a chance the political mood could shift.

    “If you look closely at the data, there is a certain movement regarding people’s attitudes to immigration,” he said. “But it’s something which is latent and no [main] party has yet made an issue of it.”

    Meanwhile, Reuters reports that the only significant early push-back against Sanchez’s liberalizing immigration policy is the conservative People’s Party (PP), which has warned “against creating a ‘pull factor’ for migrants seeking a better life in Europe.”

    The “pull factor” recently in action this summer. 

    There’s also the far-right Vox Party, founded only in 2013 and with no seats and parliament, whose general secretary Javier Ortega recently lashed out, saying “We can’t send out the message: ‘All of Africa, all of Asia, all of Latin America, all of the planet where there are economic problems or security problems, or where there’s a war or a totalitarian regime — come to Spain, we’ll take you in.’”

    Various reports have have of late noticed a trend of generally greater acceptance of certain types of migration, notably for example, immigrants from Latin American countries integrate with greater ease. But Moroccans and other North Africans tend not to, as Politico observes, citing Vox Party’s Ortega, “With Moroccans currently representing the biggest single nationality arriving in Spain — 40,000 came last year, according to the National Statistics Institute — Ortega is predicting (some would say hoping for) integration problems.”

    Sanchez’s office responded to the conservative criticism in its statement: “Rather than a pull factor, we could talk about a lack of foresight in the last years of the previous government, which did nothing about increasing arrivals, and obliged this government to take urgent steps,” according to Politico.

    The shift toward erecting a migrant transit response infrastructure which could fuel even more seaborne migration, combined with migration routes recently going westward away from Greece and Italy, means Spain is already finding itself as the next epicenter of Europe’s migration crisis. 

    * * *

    And meanwhile, near the southern Spanish town of Zahora just last Saturday…

  • NATO Is A Goldmine For US Weapons' Industries

    Authored by Brian Cloughley via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Countries of the NATO military alliance have been ordered by President Trump to increase their spending on weapons, and the reasons for his insistence they do so are becoming clearer.

    It’s got nothing to do with any defence rationale, because, after all, the Secretary General of the US-NATO military alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, has admitted that “we don’t see any imminent threat against any NATO ally” and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute recorded in its 2018 World Report that “at $66.3 billion, Russia’s military spending in 2017 was 20 per cent lower than in 2016.”

    Even Radio Free Europe, the US government’s anti-Russia broadcaster, records that Russia has reduced its defence spending.

    There is demonstrably no threat whatever to any NATO country by Russia, but this is considered irrelevant in the context of US arms’ sales, which are flourishing and being encouraged to increase and multiply.

    On July 12, the second and final day of the recent US-NATO meeting, Reuters reported Trump as saying that “the United States makes by far the best military equipment in the world: the best jets, the best missiles, the best guns, the best everything.”  He went on “to list the top US arms makers, Lockheed Martin Corp, Boeing Co and Northrop Grumman Corp by name.”

    On July 11 the Nasdaq Stock Exchange listed the stock price of Lockheed Martin at $305.68.  The day after Trump’s speech, it increased to $318.37.

    On July 11 the Nasdaq Stock Exchange listed the stock price of Boeing at $340.50.  The day after Trump’s speech, it increased to $350.79.

    On July 11 the New York Stock Exchange listed the stock price of Northrop Grumman (it doesn’t appear on Nasdaq) at $311.71.  The day after Trump’s speech, it increased to $321.73.

    General Dynamics, another major US weapons producer, might not be too pleased, however, because its stock price rose only slightly, from $191.51 to $192.74.  Nor might Raytheon, the maker of the Patriot missile system which Washington is selling all over the world, because its stock went up by a modest five dollars, from $194.03 to $199.75.  Perhaps they will be named by Trump the next time he makes a speech telling his country’s bemused allies to buy US weapons.

    Trump also declared that “We have many wealthy countries with us today [July 12 at the NATO Conference] but we have some that aren’t so wealthy and they did ask me if they could buy the military equipment, and could I help them out, and we will help them out a little bit,” which made it clear that poorer countries that want to buy American weapons will probably not have to put cash down for their purchases. So it wasn’t altogether surprising that the stock prices of the three arms manufacturers named by Trump all rose by over ten dollars. 

    To further boost this bonanza, the State Department did its best to make US arms sales even easier by enabling weapons manufacturers to avoid the well-constructed checks and balances that had been in place to ensure that at least a few legal, moral and economic constraints would be observed when various disreputable regimes queued up to buy American weapons.

    But these regulations no longer apply, because on July 13 the State Department announced new measures to “fast-track government approval of proposals from defense and aerospace companies” which action was warmly welcomed by the President of the US Chamber of Commerce Defence and Aerospace Export Council, Keith Webster, who is “looking forward to continued collaboration with the White House on initiatives that further expand international opportunities for the defense and aerospace industries.” 

    There was yet more boosting by Lt-General Charles Hooper, Director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, who declared at the Farnborough International Air Show on July 18 that “Defense exports are good for our national security, they’re good for our foreign policy. And they’re good for our economic security.”  He then proposed that his agency cut the transportation fee charged to foreign military sales clients, which would be a major stimulant for sales of “the best jets, the best missiles, the best guns” so valued by Mr Trump. Obviously a devoted follower of his President, the General followed the Trump line with dedication by reminding the media that “as the administration and our leadership has said, economic security is national security.”  This man just might go places in Trump World.

    But he won’t go as far as the arms manufacturers, whose future growth and profits are assured under Trump and the Washington Deep State, which is defined as “military, intelligence and government officials who try to secretly manipulate government policy.”  US weapons producers have realised, as said so presciently two thousand years ago by the Roman statesman, Cicero, that “the sinews of war are infinite money,” and their contentment will continue to grow in synchrony with their financial dividends.

    Voice of America joined the chorus of reportage on July 12 and observed that “with Thursday’s renewed pledge by NATO countries to meet defense spending goals, some of the biggest beneficiaries could be US weapons manufacturers, which annually already export billions of dollars worth of arms across the globe.”

    Within European NATO, the biggest spenders on US arms, thus far, are Poland, Romania, Britain and Greece, and the amounts involved are colossal.  Poland, whose economy is booming, has signed an agreement to buy Patriot missile systems for $4.75 billion, adding to the purchase of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles for $200 million, Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles, costing $250 million, and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems for the same amount. Delivery of its 48 F-16 multi-role strike aircraft ($4.7 billion) began in 2006, and Warsaw has proved a loyal customer ever since.  Who knows what exotic new piece of US hardware will be ordered as a result of Mr Trump’s encouragement? 

    Romania, a country with only 750 kilometres of motorway (tiny Belgium has 1,700 km), has been seeking World Bank assistance for its road projects but is unlikely to benefit because it is so gravely corrupt. This has not stopped it purchasing US artillery rocket systems for $1.25 billion and Patriot missiles for a colossal $3.9 billion, following-on from construction in May 2016 of a US Aegis missile station, at Washington’s expense.  It forms part of the US-NATO encirclement of Russia, and its missiles are to be operational this year. 

    The message for European NATO is that the US is pulling out all stops to sell weapons, and that although, for example, “about 84% of the UK’s total arms imports come from the United States”, there is room for improvement.  Slovakia is buying $150 millions’ worth of helicopters and paying a satisfying $2.91 billion for F-16 fighters, but other NATO countries appear to have been less disposed to purchase more of “the best jets, the best missiles, the best guns” that Mr Trump has on offer.

    The mine of NATO gold is there for exploitation, and following Trump’s enthusiastic encouragement of his arms’ manufacturers it seems that extraction will be effective.

    The US Military-Industrial Complex stands to gain handsomely from its President’s campaign to boost the quantities of weapons in the world.

  • BRICTS: Turkey Is Getting Off The US Reservation

    Authored by Tom Luongo,

    This year’s BRICS Summit was a big show.  No question.  The main event was provided by Turkish President cum Dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    Erdogan wants to a a “T” to the acronym, making them the BRICTS.

    Erdogan also made it very clear Turkey’s shift away from the West will proceed faster if the bullying and marginalization continue.  For months now, Turkey has struggled with a crashing Lira and sovereign bond market.

    The poster child for the unfolding sovereign debt crisis.

    The Trump Administration knows that Turkey is slipping from its grasp.  Do you ever wonder why certain countries’ currencies get trashed when others with worse balance sheets or balance of trade don’t?

    You should.  Because asking that simple question will lead you to asking “Why X?  Why Now?”

    And in Turkey’s case it is for many reasons:

    1. Turkey was key in assisting Iran resist pre-JCPOA sanctions by laundering Iranian oil sales in physical gold through Turkish banks.

    2. Turkey is highly dependent on foreign energy imports and is one of Iran’s largest customers.

    3. To alleviate this foreign-energy dependence Turkey, through Russia, are building nuclear power plants and the Turkish Stream pipeline.

      • Turkish Stream will provide Russian Gas from Gazprom at an effective discount since most of its capacity is targeted for European destinations and Turkey will likely get transit fees for that gas offsetting some of the costs of the gas they buy from Gazprom.

    4. Turkey refuses to comply with Trump’s edict to not buy Iranian oil in November.

    5. Turkey is buying S-400 missile defense systems from Russia

    6. The U.S. blocked the sale of F-35s to Turkey as a retaliatory measure.  Given the F-35’s cost/benefit ratio, I’d say Turkey wins on that front as well.

    7. Turkey’s occupation of Northern Syria was a blocking move to keep the U.S. from moving West to Afrin and uniting the Kurdish cantons.

    I could go on, you get the point.

    BRICTS of Trade

    In the bigger picture, Turkey is still most important because of its geography.  It’s really the only reason anyone puts up with Erdogan’s shiftiness in the first place.

    But, Erdogan’s pushing for admittance into the BRICS is about far more than symbolism.  it’s about access to development capital through their parallel institutions to the ones controlled by the U.S. — The IMF, The World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Ex-Im banks, etc.

    To assist Turkey in its fight to stand firm on U.S. hybrid war tactics, accession into the BRICS gives them access to more sources of Chinese capital.  China and Russia were, to no one’s surprise, receptive to the idea.

    As I pointed out in an earlier post, China and Russia account for nearly 20% of Turkish imports, with Iran and India making up another 6.4%, larger than the U.S.’s contribution.

    Turkish Imports by Country

    Increasing Turkey’s exports to the other BRICS countries should be the priority.  But, since net capital inflow into Turkey is and will remain positive, thanks to a much weaker Lira, the slow removal of dollar dependency can commence, thanks to its currency swap arrangements with Russia and China.

    Also, don’t discount the large trade turnover between Turkey and Germany, another source of foreign currency and capital.

    Watch the Currency

    The Bank of Turkey’s response to the lira crisis has been the right one, to buy up dollar-denominated corporate paper and remove liquidity bottlenecks from the banking system.  Those liabilities can then be retired over time while freeing the companies to realign their businesses away from the U.S. dollar.

    This is Turkey’s Achilles’ heel, it’s large dollar-based corporates liabilities.  And those liabilities could explode if Trump escalates the financial and diplomatic war against Turkey.

    That’s what the market has been responding to.

    Since Turkey has currency swap agreements in place with China any excess buildup of local currency can be mitigated.  The next steps here would be for Turkey to sign one with Russia and/or India.

    I’m not saying things won’t be difficult for Turkey.  They are now.

    I’m saying there’s a path out of this problem, just like there was for Russia in late 2014/15.  And in some ways just like there is for China’s huge corporate debt problem.

    Will the Lira Break Through this Resistance?

    The headlines keep pushing for a further collapse of the Lira and its weakening may not be over.  But, Triple Tops like we see here are usually reversal signals, because it says that the sellers (in this case) are lacking conviction to overwhelm the mix of market intervention by the central bank and speculative bulls.

    The point of Trump’s full-court pressure campaign is to keep everyone, especially China, fighting more little fires than it can safely put out.  That’s the key to understanding his Art of the Deal foreign policy.

    The problem with this approach is that if you don’t get capitulation, you get nothing in the end.  Because leverage is essentially a bluff.  Turkey has friends, just like Iran does and just like Russia did.

    *  *  *

    Join my more than 130 Patrons in staying ahead of the curve of where geopolitics and investing meet and explode by signing up for the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Investment Newsletter. 

  • US Treasuries, JGBs Rally As Bank Of Japan Shifts To "More Flexible" Bond-Buying Plan

    After a few years of relative apathy, today’s Bank of Japan statement is greeted with considerable anticipation as it may well have some significant impacts on global markets, judging by the last two weeks’ action after hints at BoJ policy shifts.

    Background:

    Japan’s economy is shrinking once again…

    Industrial Production is plunging…

    As a reminder, The BoJ cut its inflation forecast at the last meeting…

    But the most-watched item in today’s statement will be with regard Yield Curve Control (YCC) as recent source articles have suggested that the BoJ will discuss potential policy changes to its YCC framework on the basis of sustainability, not tightening, of monetary policy which could lead to an adjustment of the yield curve target – where the 10Y JGB trades – to allow a long-term natural rise. This is said to be the cause due to the central bank’s admission that it may take even longer to hit the 2% price target, and therefore would need to ensure its policy measures can be sustained, while a policy tweak could also help alleviate some of the side-effects from its prolonged ultra-loose policy which has squeezed banks’ profits.

    And yet, few expect that the BOJ will make an explicit YCC determination today, as an increase in the JGB yield target appears unlikely at a time when it is expected to revise downward its inflation forecast; instead in consideration of the adverse side effects of its policy, the BoJ will likely declare at the end of its statement that, based on its analysis in its quarterly Outlook Report, that it will maintain its easing policy for an extended period but will conduct financial market operations and asset purchasing operations to address the mounting cumulative side effects.

    And in case there is a negative reaction to this apparent ‘tightening’, one likely easing measure to deal with such side effects will include an overhaul of its JPY6 billion ETF purchasing operations, a shift from Nikkei 225-linked ETF to Topix-linked ETF, which would likely spur investors to follow suit in rebalancing their portfolios should this materialize.

    And finally, while ‘officially’ The Bank of Japan has not shifted its bond-buying program’s scope, in practice it has been tapering dramatically… forced by liquidity constraints in the market.

    And it is this forced tapering that confirms the lack of sustainability of its bond-buying program that The BoJ has expressed concern about.

    “Market players have come to realize that the bond-purchase operations aren’t directly linked to monetary policy,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Their action is dependent on conditions and does not indicate anything special in store.”

    As a reminder, introduction of yield-curve control: 1:18pm (0018ET) on Sept. 21, 2016,  meaning today’s announcement is the latest since then.

    h/t @apacvsindopac

    Having kept investors waiting for the longest time since Sept 2016’s yield curve control announcement, The Bank of Japan – desperate to avoid a repeat of 2013’s Fed-driven taper-tantrum – kept policy the same aside from a nuanced shift in language around the bond operations.

    • BOJ Maintains Policy Balance Rate at -0.100%

    • BOJ Maintains 10-Year JGB Yield Target at About 0.000%

    But here’s the twist:

    • BOJ to Allow More Flexibility in Bond Operations – allowing upward and downward movement in yields

    • BOJ to Act Promptly in Case of Rapid Increase in Yield

    And as we suspected:

    • BOJ Shifts ETF Allocation Further to Topix From Nikkei

    • BOJ: ETF Puchases Amount May Change on Market Conditions

    Additionally, BoJ cut its inflation outlook for FY18, 19, and 20.

    The BOJ repeats that it remains committed to QQE with YCC (ensuring a dovish perspective).

    Finally BoJ confirmed it intends to keep very low rates for “extended period of time.”

    And the reaction in USDJPY and JGBs was very clear… (USDJPY has been glued to 111 the figure for the last 48 hours or so). Bonds are bid (unwinding the yield spike from last week’s rumors, but Yen is weaker)…

    And Treasuries are bid too on modest relief that The BoJ did not go full taper tantrum…

    Kuroda triued to use powerful language but the BOJ statement itself underscores that this isn’t a policy change – “Strengthening the Framework for Continuous Powerful Monetary Easing.”

    The bottom line is this allows The BoJ to continue its stealth tapering  and be flexible enough to act if yields suddenly spike (or back away when there’s no liquidity and not make it a spectacle).

  • Debunking The Putin Panic With Stephen Cohen

    Via TheRealNews.com,

    Part 1

    President Trump’s warm words for Vladimir Putin and his failure to endorse U.S. intelligence community claims about alleged Russian meddling have been called “treasonous” and the cause of a “national security crisis.” There is a crisis, says Prof. Stephen F. Cohen, but one of our own making…

    AARON MATE: It’s The Real News. I’m Aaron Mate.

    The White House is walking back another statement from President Trump about Russia and U.S. intelligence. It began in Helsinki on Monday, when at his press conference with Vladimir Putin, Trump did not endorse the claim that Russia meddled in the 2016 election. After an outcry that played out mostly on cable news, Trump appeared to retract that view one day later. But then on Wednesday, Trump was asked if he believes Russia is now targeting the U.S. ahead of the midterms.

    DONALD TRUMP: [Thank] you all very much. Appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you.

    REPORTER: Is Russia still targeting the U.S. [inaudible]. No, you don’t believe that to be the case?

    DONALD TRUMP: Thank you very much, everyone. We’re doing very well. We are doing very well, and we’re doing very well, probably as well as anybody has ever done with Russia. And there’s been no president ever as tough as I have been on Russia. All you have to do is look at the numbers, look at what we’ve done, look at sanctions, look at ambassadors. Not there. Look, unfortunately, at what happened in Syria recently. I think President Putin knows that better than anybody. Certainly a lot better than the media.

    AARON MATE: The White House later claimed that when Trump said ‘no,’ he meant no to answering questions. But Trump’s contradiction of U.S. intelligence claims has brought the Russiagate story, one that has engulfed his presidency, to a fever pitch. Prominent U.S. figures have called Trump’s comments in Helsinki treasonous, and compared alleged Russian e-mail hacking and social media activity to 9/11 and Pearl Harbor. Those who also question intelligence claims or warmongering with Russia have been dubbed traitors, or Kremlin agents.

    Speaking to MSNBC, the former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul declared that with Trump’s comments, the U.S. is in the midst of a national security crisis.

    MICHAEL MCFAUL: Republicans need to step up. They need to speak out, not just the familiar voices, because this is a national security crisis, and the president of the United States flew all the way to Finland, met with Vladimir Putin, and basically capitulated. It felt like appeasement.

    AARON MATE: Well, joining me to address this so-called national security crisis is Stephen Cohen, professor emeritus at New York University and Princeton University. His books include “Failed Crusade: America and the Tragedy of Post-Soviet Russia,” and “Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War.” Professor Cohen, welcome. I imagine that you might agree with the view that we are in the midst of a national security crisis when it comes to Russia, but for far different reasons than those expounded on by Ambassador McFaul.

    STEPHEN COHEN: There is a national security crisis, and there is a Russian threat. And we, we ourselves here in the United States, have created both of them. This has been true for years, and now it’s reached crisis proportion. Notice what’s going on. A mainstream TV reporter shouts to President Trump, “Are the Russians still targeting our elections?” This is in the category “Are you still beating your wife?” There is no proof that the Russians have targeted or attacked our elections. But it’s become axiomatic. What kind of media is that, are the Russians still, still attacking our elections.

    And what Michael McFaul, whom I’ve known for years, formerly Ambassador McFaul, purportedly a scholar and sometimes a scholar said, it is simply the kind of thing, to be as kind as I can, that I heard from the John Birch Society about President Eisenhower when he went to meet Khrushchev when I was a kid growing up in Kentucky. This is fringe discourse that never came anywhere near the mainstream before, at least after Joseph McCarthy, that the president went, committed treason, and betrayed the country. Trump may have not done the right thing at the summit, because agreements were reached. Nobody discusses the agreements. But to stage a kangaroo trial of the president of the United States in the mainstream media, and have plenty of once-dignified people come on and deliver the indictment, is without precedent in this country. And it has created a national crisis in our relations with Russia. So yes, there’s a national crisis.

    AARON MATE: Let me play for you a clip from Trump’s news conference with Putin that also drew outrage back in the U.S. When he was asked about the state of U.S.-Russia relations, he said both sides had responsibility.

    DONALD TRUMP: Yes, I do. I hold both countries responsible. I think that the United States has been foolish. I think we’ve all been foolish. We should have had this dialogue a long time ago. A long time, frankly, before I got to office. And I think we’re all to blame. I think that the United States now has stepped forward, along with Russia, and we’re getting together, and we have a chance to do some great things. Whether it’s nuclear proliferation, in terms of stopping, because we have to do it. Ultimately that’s probably the most important thing that we can be working on.

    AARON MATE: That’s President Trump in Helsinki. Professor Cohen, I imagine that this comment probably was part of the reason why there was so much outrage, not Just of what Trump said about the claims of Russian meddling in the election. Can you talk about the significance of what he said here, and how it contradicts the, the entire consensus of the bipartisan foreign policy establishment?

    STEPHEN COHEN: I did not vote for President Trump. But for that I salute him, what he just said. So far as I can remember, no wiser words or more important words have been spoken by the American president about Russia and the Soviet Union since Ronald Reagan did his great detente with Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 1980s. What Trump just did, and I don’t- we never know, Aaron, how aware he is of the ramifications of what he says. But in this case, whether he fully understood it or not, he just broke with, and the first time any major political figure in the United States has broken with the orthodoxy, ever since at least 2000. And even going back to the ’90s. That all the conflicts we’ve had with post-Soviet Russia, after communism went away in Russia, all those conflicts, which I call a new and more dangerous Cold War, are solely, completely, the fault of Putin or Putin’s Russia. That nothing in American policy since Bill Clinton in the 1990s did anything to contribute seriously to the very dangerous conflict, confrontation we have with Russia today. It was all Russia’s fault.

    What that has meant, and you know this, Aaron, because you live in this world as well, it has meant no media or public dialogue about the merits of American policy toward post-Soviet Russia from Clinton, certainly through Obama. It may be changing now under President Trump. Not sure. It means if we don’t have a debate, we’re not permitted to ask, did we do something wrong, or so unwise that it led to this even more dangerous Cold War? And if the debate leads to a conclusion that we did do something unwise, and that we’re still doing it, then arises the pressure and the imperative for any new policy toward Russia. None of that has been permitted, because the orthodoxy, the dogma, the axiom, is Putin alone has solely been responsible.

    So you know, you know as well as I do what is excluded. It doesn’t matter that we moved NATO to Russia’s borders, that’s not significant. Or that we bombed Serbia, Russia’s traditional ally. Or that George Bush left the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, which was the bedrock of Russian nuclear security and, I would argue, our own. Or that we did regime change by military might in Iraq and Libya, and many other things. Or that we provoked the Ukrainian crisis in 2004, and supported the coup that overthrew a legitimate, elected, constitutional president there. None of that matters. Oh, it was kind of footnotes to the real narrative. And the narrative is, is that a Russian leader Vladimir Putin in power was a horrible aggressor. Killed everybody, somehow, with secret poisons or thieves in the night who opposed him. And began this new cold or even worse war with the United States.

    No historian of any merit will ever write the story that way. It’s factually, analytically, simply untrue. Now Trump has said something radically different. We got here in these dire circumstances because both sides acted unwisely, and we should have had this discussion a long time ago. So for that, two cheers for President Trump. But whether he can inspire the discussion that he may wish to, considering the fact that he’s now being indicted as a criminal for having met Putin, is a big question.

    AARON MATE: So a few questions. You mentioned that some agreements were made, but details on that have been vague. So do you have any sense of what concretely came out of this summit? There was talk about cooperation on nuclear weapons, possibly renewing the New START Treaty. We know that Putin offered that to Trump when he first came into office, but Trump rejected it. There was talk about cooperating in Syria. And, well, yeah, if I can put that question to you first, and then I have a follow-up about what might be motivating Trump here. But first, what do you think concretely came out of this?

    STEPHEN COHEN: Well, look, I know a lot, both as a historian, and I’ve actually participated in some about the history of American-Russian, previously Soviet, summits. Which, by the way, this is the 75th anniversary of the very first one, when Franklin Roosevelt traveled to Tehran to meet Stalin. And every president, and this is important to emphasize, every president since Roosevelt has met with the Kremlin leader. Some many times, or several times. So there’s a long tradition. And therefore there are customs. And one custom, this goes to your question, is that never, except maybe very rarely, but almost never do we learn the full extent and nature of what agreements were made. That usually comes in a week or two or three later, because there’s still the teams of both are hammering out the details.

    So that’s exactly what happened at this summit. There was no conspiracy. No, you know, appeasement behind closed doors. The two leaders announced in general terms what they agreed upon. Now, the most important, and this is traditional, too, by meeting they intended to revive the diplomatic process between the United States and Russia which has been badly tattered by events including the exclusion of diplomats, and sanctions, and the rest. So to get active, vigorous diplomacy about many issues going. They may not achieve that goal, because the American media and the political mainstream is trying to stop that. Remember that anything approaching diplomatic negotiations with Russia still less detente, is now being criminalized in the United States. Criminalized. What was once an honorable tradition, the pursuit of detente, is now a capital crime, if we believe these charges against Trump.

    So they tried to revive that process, and we’ll see if it’s going to be possible. I think at least behind the scenes it will be. Obviously what you mentioned, both sides now have new, more elusive, more lethal, faster, more precise nuclear weapons. We’ve been developing them for a long time in conjunction with missile defense. We’ve essentially been saying to Russia, you may have equality in nuclear weapons with us, but we have missile defense. Therefore, we could use missile defense to take out your retaliatory capacity. That is, we could stage the first strike on you and you would not be able to retaliate.

    Now, everybody who’s lived through the nuclear era knows that’s an invitation to disaster. Because like it or not, we’ve lived with a doctrine called MAD, Mutual Assured Destruction, that one side dare not attack the other with a nuclear weapon because it would be destroyed as well. We were saying we now have this primacy. Putin, then, on March 1 of this year, announced that they have developed weapons that can elude missile defense. And it seems to be true. In the air and at sea, their dodgy, darty, quick thing- but they could avoid our missile defense. So where we are at now is on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race involving more dangerous nuclear weapons. And the current START, New START Treaty will expire, I think, in three or four years. But its expiration date is less important that the process of talking and negotiating and worrying officially about these new weapons had ended.

    So essentially what Trump and Putin agreed is that process of concern about new and more dangerous nuclear weapons must now resume immediately. And if there’s anybody living in the United States who think that that is a bad idea they need to reconsider their life, because they may be looking into the darkness of death. So that was excellent. Briefly. What I hope they did- they didn’t announce it, but I’m pretty sure they did- that there had been very close calls between American and Russian combat forces and their proxies in Syria. We’re doing a proxy war, but there are plenty of native Russians and Americans in Syria in a relatively small combat cell. And there have been casualties. The Russians have said at the highest level the next time a Russian is killed in Syria by an American-based weapon, we will strike the American launcher. If Russia strikes our launching pads or areas, whether on land or sea, which means Americans will be there and are killed, call it war. Call it war.

    So we need to agree in Syria to do more than, what do they call it, deconfliction, where we have all these warnings. It’s still too much space for mishap. And what I hope it think Trump and Putin did was to try to get a grip on this.

    AARON MATE: Stephen F. Cohen, professor emeritus at at Princeton University and New York University, thank you. And stay tuned for part two. I’m Aaron Mate for The Real News.

    *  *  *

    Part 2

    Via TheRealNews.com,

    There is much to criticize the Russian president for, says Professor Stephen F. Cohen of Princeton and NYU, but many US political and media claims about Putin are false – and reckless…

    AARON MATE: It’s The Real News. I’m Aaron Mate. This is part two with Stephen Cohen, professor emeritus of Russian studies at New York University and Princeton. In part one we talked about the uproar over the Trump-Putin summit, and Trump’s comments about the U.S. intelligence community and about cooperation with Russia. Now in part two we’re going to get to some of the main talking points that have been pervasive throughout corporate media, talking about the stated reasons for why pundits and politicians say they are opposed to Trump sitting down with Putin.

    So let me start with Jon Meacham. He is a historian. And speaking to CNN, he worried that Trump, with his comments about NATO calling on the alliance to pay more, and calling into question, he worried about the possibility that Trump won’t come to the aid of Baltic states in the event that Russia invades.

    JON MEACHAM: And what worries me most is the known unknown, as Donald Rumsfeld might put it, of what happens next. Let’s say Putin- just look at this whole week of the last five, six days in total. What happens if Putin launches military action against, say, the Baltics? What, what is it that President Trump, what about his comments that NATO suggest thar he would follow an invocation of Article 5 and actually project American force in defense of the values that not only do we have an intellectual and moral assent to, but a contractual one, a treaty one. I think that’s the great question going forward.

    AARON MATE: OK. So that’s Jon Meacham speaking to CNN. So, Professor Cohen, putting aside what he said there about our intellectual values and strong tradition, just on the issue of Trump, of Putin posing a potential threat and possibly invading the Baltics, is that a realistic possibility?

    STEPHEN COHEN: So, I’m not sure what you’re asking me about. The folly of NATO expansion? The fact that every president in my memory has asked the Europeans to pay more? But can we be real? Can we be real? The only country that’s attacked that region of Europe militarily since the end of the Soviet Union was the United States of America. As I recall, we bombed Serbia, a, I say this so people understand, a traditional Christian country, under Bill Clinton, bombed Serbia for about 80 days. There is no evidence that Russia has ever bombed a European country.

    You tell me, Aaron. You must be a smart guy, because you got your own television show. Why would Putin want to launch a military attack and occupy the Baltics? So he has to pay the pensions there? Which he’s having a hard time already paying in Russia, and therefore has had to raise the pension age, and thereby lost 10 percentage points of popularity in two weeks? Why in the world can we, can we simply become rational people. Why in the world would Russia want to attack and occupy Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia? The only reason I can think of is that many, many of my friends love to take their summer vacations there. And maybe some crazy person thinks that if we occupy it, vacations will be cheaper. It’s crazy. It’s beyond crazy. It’s a kind-.

    AARON MATE: Professor Cohen, if you were on CNN right now I imagine that the anchor would say to you, well, okay, but one could say the same thing about Georgia in 2008. Why did Russia attack Georgia then?

    STEPHEN COHEN: I’m not aware that Russia attacked Georgia. The European Commission, if you’re talking about the 2008 war, the European Commission, investigating what happened, found that Georgia, which was backed by the United States, fighting with an American-built army under the control of the, shall we say, slightly unpredictable Georgian president then, Saakashvili, that he began the war by firing on Russian enclaves. And the Kremlin, which by the way was not occupied by Putin, but by Michael McFaul and Obama’s best friend and reset partner then-president Dmitry Medvedev, did what any Kremlin leader, what any leader in any country would have had to do: it reacted. It sent troops across the border through the tunnel, and drove the Georgian forces out of what essentially were kind of Russian protectorate areas of Georgia.

    So that- Russia didn’t begin that war. And it didn’t begin the one in Ukraine, either. We did that by [continents], the overthrow of the Ukrainian president in [20]14 after President Obama told Putin that he would not permit that to happen. And I think it happened within 36 hours. The Russians, like them or not, feel that they have been lied to and betrayed. They use this word, predatl’stvo, betrayal, about American policy toward Russia ever since 1991, when it wasn’t just President George Bush, all the documents have been published by the National Security Archive in Washington, all the leaders of the main Western powers promised the Soviet Union that under Gorbachev, if Gorbachev would allow a reunited Germany to be NATO, NATO would not, in the famous expression, move two inches to the east.

    Now NATO is sitting on Russia’s borders from the Baltic to Ukraine. So Russians aren’t fools, and they’re good-hearted, but they become resentful. They’re worried about being attacked by the United States. In fact, you read and hear in the Russian media daily, we are under attack by the United States. And this is a lot more real and meaningful than this crap that is being put out that Russia somehow attacked us in 2016. I must have been sleeping. I didn’t see Pearl Harbor or 9/11 and 2016. This is reckless, dangerous, warmongering talk. It needs to stop. Russia has a better case for saying they’ve been attacked by us since 1991. We put our military alliance on the front door. Maybe it’s not an attack, but it looks like one, feels like one. Could be one.

    AARON MATE: OK. And in a moment I want to speak to you more about Ukraine, because we’ve heard Crimea invoked a lot in the criticism of Putin of late. But first I want to actually to ask you about a domestic issue. This one is it’s widely held that Putin is responsible for the killing of journalists and opposition activists who oppose him. And on this front I want to play for you a clip of Joe Cirincione. He is the head of the Ploughshares Fund. And this is what he said this week in an appearance on Democracy Now!.

    JOE CIRINCIONE: Both of these men are dangerous. Both of these men oppress basic human rights, basic freedoms. Both of them think the press are the enemy of the people. Putin goes further. He kills journalists. He has them assassinated on the streets of Moscow.

    Donald Trump does not go that far yet. But I think what Putin is doing is using the president of the United States to project his rule, to increase his power, to carry out his agenda in Syria, with Europe, et cetera, and that Trump is acquiescing to that for reasons that are not yet clear.

    AARON MATE: That’s Joe Cirincione.

    STEPHEN COHEN: I know him well. It’s worse than that. It’s worse than that.

    AARON MATE: Well Yes. There’s two issues here, Professor Cohen. One is the state of the crackdown on press freedoms in Russia, which I’m sure you would say is very much alive, and is a strong part of the Russian system. But let’s first address this widely-held view that Putin is responsible for killing journalists who are critical of him.

    STEPHEN COHEN: I know I’m supposed to follow your lead, but I think you’re skipping over a major point. How is it that Joe, who was once one of our most eminent and influential, eloquent opponents of nuclear arms race, who was prepared to have the president of the United States negotiate with every Soviet communist leader, including those who had a lot of blood on their hands, now decide that Putin kills everybody and he’s not a worthy partner? What happened to Joe?

    I’ll tell you what happened to him. Trump. Trump has driven once-sensible people completely crazy. Moreover, Joe knows absolutely nothing about internal Russian politics, and he ought to follow my rule. When I don’t know something about something, I say I don’t know. But what he just said is ludicrous. And the sad part is-.

    AARON MATE: But it’s widely held. If it’s ludicrous-. But widely held, yeah.

    STEPHEN COHEN: Well, the point is that once distinguished and important spokespeople for rightful causes, like ending a nuclear arms race, have been degraded, or degraded themselves by saying things like he said to the point that they’re of utility today only to the proponents of a new nuclear arms race. And he’s not alone. Somebody called it Trump derangement syndrome. I’m not a psychiatrist, but it’s a widespread mania across our land. And when good people succumb to it, we are all endangered.

    AARON MATE: But many people would be surprised to hear that, because again, the stories that we get, and there are human rights reports, and it’s just sort of taken as a given fact that Putin is responsible for killing journalists. So if that’s ludicrous, if you can explain why you think that is.

    STEPHEN COHEN: Well, I got this big problem which seems to afflict very few people in public life anymore. I live by facts. I’m like my doctor, who told me not long ago I had to have minor surgery for a problem I didn’t even know I had. And I said, I’m not going to do it. Show me the facts. And he did. I had the minor surgery. Journalists no longer seem to care about facts. They repeat tabloid rumors. Putin kills everybody.

    All I can tell you is this. I have never seen any evidence whatsoever, and I’ve been- I knew some of the people who were killed. Anna Politkovskaya, the famous journalist for Novaya Gazeta was the first, I think, who was- Putin was accused of killing. I knew her well. She was right here, in this apartment. Look behind me, right here. She was here with my wife, Katrina vanden Huevel. I wouldn’t say we were close friends, but we were associates in Moscow, and we were social friends. And I mourn her assassination today. But I will tell you this, that neither her editors at that newspaper, nor her family, her surviving sons, think Putin had anything to do with the killing. No evidence has ever been presented. Only media kangaroo courts that Putin was involved in these high-profile assassinations, two of the most famous being this guy Litvinenko by polonium in London, about the time Anna was killed, and more recently Boris Netsov, whom, it’s always said, was walking within view of the Kremlin when he was shot. Well, you could see the Kremlin from miles away. I don’t know what within the view- unless they think Putin was, you know, watching it through binoculars. There is no evidence that Putin ever ordered the killing of anybody outside his capacity as commander in chief. No evidence.

    Now, did he? But we live, Aaron, and I hope the folks who watch us remember this. Every professional person, every decent person lives or malpractices based on verified facts. You go down the wrong way on a one-way street, you might get killed. You take some medication that’s not prescribed for you, you might die. You pursue foreign policies based on fiction, you’re likely to get in war. And all these journalists, from the New York Times to the Washington Post, from MSNBC to CNN who churn out daily these allegations that Putin kills people are disgracing themselves. I will give you one fact. Wait. One fact, and you could look it up, as Casey Stengel used to say. He was a baseball manager, in case you don’t know.

    There’s an organization called the Committee to Protect American Journalists. It’s kind of iconic. It does good things, it says unwise things. Go on its website and look at the number of Russian journalists killed since 1991, since the end of the Soviet Union, under two leaders. Boris Yeltsin, whom we dearly loved and still mourn, and Putin, whom we hate. Last time I looked, the numbers may have changed, more were killed under Yeltsin than under Putin. Did Putin kill those in the 1990s?

    So you should ask me, why did they die, then? And I can tell you the main reason. Corrupt business. Mafia-like business in Russia. Just like happened in the United States during our primitive accumulation days. Profit seekers killed rivals. Killed them dead in the streets. Killed them as demonstrations, as demonstrative acts. The only thing you could say about Putin is that he might have created an atmosphere that abets that sort of thing. To which I would say, maybe, but originally it was created with the oligarchical class under Boris Yeltsin, who remains for us the most beloved Russian leader in history. So that’s the long and the short of it. Go look at the listing on the Committee to Protect Journalists.

    AARON MATE: OK. So, following up on that, to what extent- and this gets a bit into history, which you’ve covered extensively in your writings. To what extent are we here in the West responsible for the creation of that Russian oligarchal class that you mentioned? But also, what is Putin’s relationship to it now, today? Does he abet it? Is he entrenched in it? We hear, often, talk of Putin possibly being the richest person in the world as a result of his entanglement with the very corruption of Russia you’re speaking about. So both our role in creating that problem in Russia, but then also Putin’s role now in terms of his relationship to it.

    STEPHEN COHEN: I’m going to give you a quick, truncated, scholarly, historical perspective on this. But this is what people should begin with when they think about Vladimir Putin and his 18 years in power. Putin came to power almost accidentally in 2000. He inherited a country whose state had collapsed twice in the 20th century. You’ve got to think about that. How many states have collapsed that you know of once? But the Russian state, Russian statehood, had collapsed once in 1917 during the revolution, and again in 1991 when the Soviet Union ended. The country was in ruination; 75 percent of the people were in poverty.

    Putin said- and this obsesses him. If you want to know what obsesses Putin, it’s the word ‘sovereignty.’ Russia lost its sovereignty- political, foreign policy, security, financial- in the 1990s. Putin saw his mission, as I read him, and I try to read him as a biographer. He says a lot, to regain Russia’s sovereignty, which meant to make the country whole again at home, to rescue its people, and to protect its defenses. That’s been his mission. Has it been more than that? Maybe. But everything he’s done, as I see it, has followed that concept of his role in history. And he’s done pretty well.

    Now, I can give you all Putin’s minuses very easily. I would not care for him to be my president. But let me tell you one other thing that’s important. You evaluate nations within their own history, not within ours. If you asked me if Putin is a democrat, and I will answer you two ways. He thinks he has. And compared to what? Compared to the leader of Egypt? Yeah, he is a democrat. Compared to the rulers of our pals in the Gulf states, he is a democrat. Compared to Bill Clinton? No, he’s not a Democrat. I mean, Russia-. Countries are on their own historical clock. And you have to judge Putin in terms of his predecessors. So people think Putin is a horrible leader. Did you prefer Brezhnev? Did you prefer Stalin? Did you prefer Andropov? Compared to what? Please tell me, compared to what.

    And by the way, that’s how that’s how Russians-. You want to know why he’s so popular in Russia? Because Russians judge him in the context of their own what they call zhivaya istoriya, living history; what we call autobiography. In terms of their own lives, he looks pretty darn good. They complain out him. We sit in the kitchen and they bitch about Putin all the time. But they don’t want him to go away.

    AARON MATE: All right. Well, on that front, we’re going to wrap this up there. Stephen Cohen, professor emeritus of Russian studies at New York University and Princeton. His books include “Failed Crusade: America and the Tragedy of Post-Soviet Russia,” and “Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War.” Professor Cohen, thank you.

    STEPHEN COHEN: You forgot one book.

    AARON MATE: I did not say I was reading your, your complete bibliography.

    STEPHEN COHEN: It’s called-. It’s called “Confessions of a Holy Fool.”

    AARON MATE: Is that true? Or are you making a joke.

    STEPHEN COHEN: Somewhere in between. [Thank you, Aaron.]

    AARON MATE: Professor Cohen, thank you. And thank you for joining us on The Real News.

  • "I Go Days Without Eating": Some Amazon Workers Left Homeless After Workplace Injuries

    Workplace safety incidents have been a major topic of discussion at certain high-flying companies over the last couple of months, but one of the names that hasn’t recently been mentioned has been Amazon. With the release of a new report by The Guardian early this week, that may very well change.

    Amazon employees who suffer workplace safety incidents may be forgotten and left behind – with one report of a woman who was literally left “homeless”, living in her car in a fulfillment warehouse parking lot and going “days without eating”. Other employees claim that Amazon has failed to accept their workman’s compensation filings and that the company has tried to “settle” with them for a pittance in a manner that absolves Amazon of all liability.

    The new expose published  over the weekend came just days after it was widely reported that Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ net worth had eclipsed $150 billion after Amazon stock rallied to all time highs after its most recent earnings report.

    The article goes into depth on several workplace safety incidents that left warehouse and fulfillment center employees unable to perform their duties at work and also reportedly neglected by the company when they sought medical care, paid time off, workman’s compensation or other reasonable accommodations for their injuries.

    The article highlights Amazon warehouse worker Vickie Allen. Her story begins in October of last year. Her station at the Amazon warehouse where she worked was missing a key piece of safety equipment known as a brush guard, according to The Guardian’s report, which prevented packages from falling onto the floor.

    Reportedly, Amazon didn’t replace this piece of safety equipment and therefore Vicky was forced to improvise and create her own solution, using a tote bin to substitute for the guard. After counting in an awkward position, due to the lack of the brush guard, she ultimately wound up hurting her back. Amazon reportedly provided her with nothing more than a heating pad, as a solution. From there, she wound up driving 60 miles back-and-forth to work only to be sent home each day without pay until she reportedly tried to get worker’s compensation.

    The article notes that it took the company until June 2018 to fix the station and that they offered her a week’s paid leave for nine months of issues:

    “By June 2018, they finally had that station fixed. It took them eight months to put one little brush guard on this station,” Allen said. On 2 July, she met with management at the Amazon fulfillment center, who offered her a week of paid leave for the issues she had to deal with over the past nine months.

    An MRI that she had in April of 2018 ultimately confirmed her back issues – just days prior to the company’s workman’s compensation insurer reportedly having the company’s doctor “drop her as a patient”. 

    Once on workers compensation, Allen started going to physical therapy. In January 2018, she returned to work and injured herself again on the same workstation that still was not fixed.

    Allen went back on medical leave and took an additional two weeks of unpaid leave because she didn’t have the money to drive to work. In April 2018, an MRI scan showed her back was still injured, but just five days after her diagnosis, she claims Amazon’s workers compensation insurer, Sedgwick, had the company doctor drop her as a patient.

    The final end result from the nearly $1 trillion company? Amazon offered her $3500 to buy her silence. She declined and instead took her story to the media. She also posted this video of her story on YouTube:

    The Guardian article also highlights another worker who ultimately had to file a lawsuit against Amazon after he claimed that he was told he was “too young to have back problems” and then was fired for hurting his back on the job:

    In April 2018, 43-year-old Bryan Hill of Seffner, Florida filed a lawsuit against Amazon, alleging managers fired him for hurting his back on the job and failed to file a workers compensation claim once his injury was reported. “It’s been scheduled for mediation in September, and we’re in a holding pattern until then,” said Miguel Bouzas, the attorney representing Hill in the lawsuit. According to the lawsuit, Hill was told by a manager he was too young to have back problems, and he was fired before Amazon Human Resources would authorize a doctor visit.

    That case is echoed with another example: a woman who fell off of a ladder that was hit from below claims she was denied workman’s comp paperwork, before having her short term disability cut short and then, ultimately, being fired. The article notes that she lost her home after being fired from Amazon:

    At an Amazon Fulfillment Center in Pennsylvania, one former employee was fired five weeks after getting injured on the job. “I was on a ladder and someone came flying into the area I was in, hit the ladder causing me to fall and I landed on my back and left leg,” said Christina Miano-Wilburn. Her back is permanently injured from the incident. “They refused to give me the paperwork for workmen’s comp. They cut my short term disability after five weeks. I was supposed to get it for 26 weeks.”

    Miano-Wilburn was notified of her job termination through a letter in the mail in May 2017 after working at Amazon for two years. She lost her home shortly after being fired from Amazon.

    Employees claim that they have also been accused of faking fatigue and exhaustion while working at fulfillment centers. The article quotes one employee stating that people do not even report injuries anymore because they’re scared to lose their job:

    Other Amazon employees succumb to the fatigue and exhaustion of the fulfillment center work environment and quit before getting injured. “I felt they thought I was faking. I was dehydrated and dizzy,” said Lindsai Florence Johnson, who was taken away in an ambulance in April during a hot day while working at an Amazon fulfillment center in San Bernardino, California. She quit in May 2018 over mistreatment after starting in June 2017. “Not all people report injuries because they are scared to get taken off their job or told they can’t work over there anymore. I have many times come home with bruises from work at Amazon and I experienced my first hernia there.”

    Another story is told of one employee who was coerced to try and sign a document to make him stipulate that his injuries occurred prior to working at Amazon, despite an MRI showing a torn meniscus in his left knee. He claims that Amazon would not accept his workman’s compensation filing, nor would they pay his medical fees:

    “I was squatting full speed and going up the step ladder as many times as I could an hour to try to hit the rates. All that squatting hurt my left knee, so I favored the other one and hurt that one,” said Yevtuck, who hurt his knees in November 2015.

    An Amazon company doctor recommended he return to work on light duty and gave him braces for each knee. Yevtuck provided documents corroborating his medical diagnoses from Amazon company doctors and private doctors. “As soon as I came back, the supervisor returned me back to a job that was full duty and I reinjured both knees.”

    He added Amazon told him to return to work, or work a light duty job if he signed a form stating his injuries occurred prior to working at Amazon. An MRI he received in April 2016 from a private doctor noted he tore the meniscus in his left knee, but Amazon would not pay his medical fees or accept his workers compensation filing. 

    Amazon, of course, defended itself for the article claiming that ensuring the safety of its workers is a priority for the company and that it is proud of its safety record.

    But it’s not just the employees that are speaking out about these workplace safety issues. The National Council for Occupation Safety and Health shares many of its employees views, concluding that “Amazon’s warehouses were listed on the National Council for Occupational Safety and Health’s “dirty dozen” list of most dangerous places to work in the United States in April, 2018. The company made the list due to its pattern of unsafe working conditions and its focus on productivity and efficiency over the safety and livelihood of its employees. Amazon’s emphasis on fulfilling a high demand of orders has resulted in unsafe working conditions for its warehouse employees.”

  • China's Oil Futures Contract Is Beginning To Show Its Teeth

    Authored by Rory Hall via The Daily Coin,

    So far so good. Petrodollar will be showing signs of wear-and-tear in the very near future.

    We have been documenting the demise of the dollar hegemony for the past several years and the past two years the pace of the demise seems to be moving like a rocket.

    All the little details being handled since the global financial meltdown in 2008 are now converging and one of the biggest pieces is now showing its teeth – the Chinese oil futures contract priced in yuan is growing in such a way that by the years end, at the current pace of growth, this contract will present a real challenge to the petrodollar.

    “China’s newly-launched crude oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange saw its trading volume surge to a record high in early June, a positive sign that a wide variety of financial market players have been keen to contribute liquidity into the new derivative market.

    The trading volume for the front-month September delivery crude futures contract was recorded at 275,006 lots last Friday, the highest since it was launched on March 26, and nearly seven times the 40,656 lots seen on the first trading day, data from INE’s website showed.

    This normalizes to 137,503 lots based on international practice, as INE counts each side of a trade – the buy and the sell — as two lots. One lot is equivalent to 1,000 barrels. That means around 137.5 million barrels of crude oil changed hands on paper last Friday, S&P Global Platts calculations showed.

    INE crude oil futures’ trading volume has been rising steadily since the launch on March 26, with the average daily volume seen at 69,055 lots in April and 170,554 lots in May — a rise of 147% month on month.” Source – Platts

    I don’t know much but a 147% growth month-on-month sounds like a serious jump and on top of that June is already showing signs this pace is not a fluke and will continue into the future.

    While this market is still in the earliest of stages of development the pace of growth seems to be significant and catching a lot of people by surprise. It appears the first major hurdle to catching the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts will be to surpass the Dubai Mercantile’s contact that averages more than 54,000 daily daily contacts. With the current pace of the Chinese contract that hurdle will be in the rearview mirror by the end of June and certainly by the end of July it will be confirmed.

    The two major contracts, Brent and WTI, have a combined daily total of 2.6 million contracts so the Chinese contract has some ways to go before it poses any kind of real threat but it is well on its on way to establishing itself as a global force.

    “Although the new INE crude futures market has been widely considered a success so far, it is still very small compared with mature international crude benchmarks in terms of trading volume and open interest, market participants noted.

    Currently, ICE Brent and NYMEX light sweet crude futures are the two leading global benchmarks.

    The Brent futures’ trading volume averaged 1 million lots/day on ICE in May, with open interest seen at an average of 2.6 million lots in the month, according to data on ICE website.” Source – Platts

    We should have better data and a better view after the July numbers print. My guess is, the new China contract is going to continue growing and petrodollars are going to continue waning.

  • Bank of America Freezes Kansas Family's Bank Account After Demanding Citizenship

    An American-born Kansas family had their bank account frozen after Bank of America demanded to know their citizenship status, reports the Kansas City Star

    Josh Collins of Roeland Park, Kansas ignored a letter from the bank asking a variety of personal questions, including whether he was an American citizen or holds dual citizenship with another country. 

    Josh was born in Wichita, Kansas, while his wife Jessica Salazar Collins was born and raised in Kansas City, Missouri and is a second generation American citizen whose great-grandfather immigrated from Mexico.

    Jessica said she tossed the letter out because she and Josh “thought it was a scam,” since Josh had been banking with BofA for the past 20 years. On July 24, however, Bank of America froze the Collins’ account – preventing them from accessing cash.

    When Josh called the bank, they confirmed that his account had been frozen:

    “The first question is, ‘Oh, we sent you something in the mail a few weeks ago,’” he recalled to KCTV5. “I said, ‘Yeah, I remember getting something that didn’t look real.’ And they’re like, ‘Oh yeah, we need to know if you’re a citizen.’ You know, I was born and raised in Kansas like Superman. I said, ‘How much more American can you get?’

    The family says they’re lucky they put off a family vacation to Minnesota, as they would have been left high and dry: 

    “We would’ve found ourselves up there without money,” said Jessica, who says they’ll be changing banks. “No money for gas. No money to feed our kids. For a hotel. No money!

    BofA said that it’s standard practice to ask about citizenship status when opening a new account or updating customer information.

    “Like all financial institutions, we’re required by law to maintain complete and accurate records for all of our customers and may periodically request information, such as country of citizenship and proof of U.S. residency. This type of outreach is nothing new,” Bank of America said in a statement Friday. “This information must be up to date and therefore we periodically reach out to customers, which is what we did in this case.” –Kansas City Star

    Except citizenship questions are not federally required according to the California Banker’s Association – the largest state affiliate of the national group. “Not to our knowledge,” said spokeswoman Beth Mills, who added that federal law requires banks must collect and verify just four things about account holders; name, date of birth, address and Social Security number. 

    Other federally chartered banks, including Wells Fargo, ask citizenship questions when some new deposit accounts are opened. The U.S. Department of the Treasury increasingly is urging financial institutions to collect as much information on customers as possible, including citizenship status, and to update often in part to ward against the laundering of money that may flow through foreign countries. –Kansas City Star

    Bank of America spokeswoman Diane Wagner blamed the Collins family for failing to return the questionnaire. 

    “If we don’t hear from a customer in response to our outreach,” she said, “as a last resort, we may restrict the account until we can confirm it is in compliance with regulatory requirements.” Collins wasn’t chosen for any specific reason, according to Wagner. 

  • "Better Bring Our Own Guns" – Portland Antifa Plotting "Direct Confrontation" At Pro-Trump Rally"

    A violent Antifa cell based in Portland, Oregon is planning a “direct confrontation” with participants in a pro-Trump rally next Saturday, according to a call to action on the leftist website “It’s Going Down.

    Rose City Antifa has continued their great work of doxxing the Portland area Proud Boys involved in this violence, and is also calling for militant antifascist resistance against Patriot Prayer,” reads the posting first reported by Cassandra Fairbanks of the Gateway Pundit

    The Rose City Antifa group notably clashed with members of Patriot Prayer and the pro-Trump “Proud Boys” in early June, which resulted in a viral video of a member of Antifa being knocked out during a melee started by the violent “resistance” group. 

    A spokesperson for Rose City Antifa told It’s Going Down said that the group plans to “show that the community will not allow violent nationalist opportunists to threaten our city and target our people. We will overwhelm them both by force of numbers and commitment to defending our community. Whatever it takes.

    As Fairbanks notes, the call to action urges members to engage in “direct confrontation” to “eliminate” the conservative groups’ ability to hold rallies. 

    “Without direct confrontation, PP and other white nationalist groups will feel entitled to threaten people where ever and whenever they like. First they target Anti-Fascists and Anti-ICE activists, then they target Pride, marginalized community spaces, minorities, and migrants. They believe ‘might makes right’ and unless the community steps in to stop them, there is no telling who they will attack next for political gain,” the call to action continues. 

    “Better bring our own guns too”

    Journalist Tim Pool noted a Reddit discussion in the “Anarchism” subreddit in which Antifa members discuss arming themselves ahead of the event. 

    “Only thing I’m worried about is some nut with a gun and a bunch of bullets,” says one user, to which another replied “Better bring our own guns too just to be safe.”

    During the June “Battle of Portland,” police recovered knives and other weapons, as well as bear mace.  

    Last April, 21 people were arrested after violence broke out between Trump supporters and members of Antifa in downtown Berkeley – leading to several injuries and the recovery of weapons from Antifa which included knives and spiked poles.

    Let’s hope we don’t see more of the same this Saturday in Portland – especially gunshot victims.

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  • "Urban Jungle At Night": Amsterdam Police Powerless To Stop Late-Night Mayhem 

    “Scooters race against traffic or through pedestrian areas. There is shouting, thefts, and poo on the streets. There is violence.” -Arre Zuurmond

    After turning a blind eye to rampant drug use and out-of-control tourists, Amsterdam’s Red Light District hs become an “urban jungle at night,” according to city ombudsman Arre Zuurmond. 

    “The city center becomes an urban jungle at night,” Zuurmond told Dutch newspaper Trouw, adding “Criminal money flourishes, authority no longer exists and the police can no longer handle this situation.” 

    Tasked with investigating mayhem in the Red Light District, Zuurmond set up three CCTV cameras in the middle of bustling Leidseplein square, located in the southwestern part of the city center, and was shocked at what was recorded. 

    One night we counted 900 offences, mainly between the hours of 2:00am and 4:00am. The atmosphere is grim, and there is an air of lawlessness…Scooters race through the pedestrian areas. There is a lot of shouting. Drugs are being bought. There is stealing”

    “There is violence but no action. You can even piss on a mobile police van without the driver even saying anything,” Zuurmond added. 

    The Red Light District is notoriously packed with revelers in the evenings who enjoy getting high and having sex – however as is many times the case, cities which offer such vices are often plagued with the crime that comes with it. Human trafficking, for example, has long been a major issue in the district. Efforts to combat the phenomenon with Amsterdam’s so-called “Project 1012” – named after the postal code, was only partially successful according to an Amsterdam court. 

    Zuurmond also talks of “deepening problems” coming from the city center – such as 2,000 illegal taxis and unregulated prostitution conducted outside of the city’s regulations. 

    So what’s the plan?

    To combat the mayhem, Amsterdam is going to begin experimenting with nuisance microphones which will record and analyze the types of sounds coming from the city center (music, screams, vehicle traffic, etc.). If noise exceeds a certain threshold, authorities will be dispatched.

    Another goal will be to actually serve justice on convicted criminals. According to the Ministry of Justice, just 12,000 of the 160,000 individuals who have been “irrevocably convicted” have actually had to serve time in jail, while Amsterdam also attracts a large number of convicts fleeing justice. Because people in Amsterdam can simply apply for a passport with minimal background checks, hundreds of alleged street criminals are able to simply disappear. 

    The city will also crack down on stolen cars – linking a license plate scanning system to their vehicle registration register in which stolen car information is also stored. If a car turns up “hot” and someone is driving it the police will be immediately notified. If a stolen car is parked, it will be towed away. 

    Amsterdam will also be cracking down on unregistered Albanians

    800 Albanians are registered with the basic administration. According to the police this group was not a problem for a long time. Until authorities thought to set up an Amsterdam page on an existing Albanian website. In one year, those pages were visited from the Dutch capital by 30,000 different IP addresses, usually via the most expensive iPhone models and encrypted crypto-phones. It was relatively easy to establish that the Albanian problem is much larger than expected, and the policy of the police could be adjusted. –Trouw (translated)

    In April, NLTimes reported that Albanians are playing a “leading role” in the Amsterdam underworld – engaged in cocaine trafficking, human trafficking and property crimes

    According to the police, these Albanian criminals lead the cocaine import from South America, the transhipment via the port of Rotterdam, and the further distribution to other European countries from Amsterdam. In addition to the Netherlands, Albanians are also very active in the drug trade in Great Britain.

    The number of Albanian criminals active in Amsterdam’s underworld continues to increase, according to the police. 

    There is much more firearm violence around cocaine trafficking than with other drugs. The police see a growing use of illegal firearms, including automatic firearms, which come from conflict areas in Ukraine, Syria, Mali, and Libya. There is also many weapons from Russia, where the army has written off 4 million Kalashnikov rifles. –NLTimes

    What’s more, most assassinations in Amsterdam are linked to the drug trade according to police.” These assassinations are usually carried out by young Amsterdam residents, and the victims are usually also young Amsterdam residents,” reports the Times

    Lastly, Amsterdam has an issue with cybercrime – as one in eight residents report having to deal with hacking or ransomware – more people than fall victim to bicycle theft. 

  • Western Collapse… Scapegoating Trump & Putin

    Authored by Finian Cunningham via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Former US President Barack Obama was in South Africa last week for the centennial anniversary marking the birth of the late Nelson Mandela. Obama delivered a speech warning about encroaching authoritarianism among nations and the “rise of strongman politics”.

    Coming on the heels of the summit in Helsinki between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, media reports assumed that Obama was taking a swipe at these two leaders for supposed growing authoritarianism.

    Obama’s casting of the “strongman” as a foreboding enemy to democracy is a variant of the supposed threat of “populism” that Western political establishments also seem concerned about.

    Trump, Putin, Turkey’s Erdogan, Italy’s Salvini, Victor Orban in Hungary and Sebastian Kurz in Austria, among many others, are all lumped together as “strongman politics”, “populists” or “authoritarians”.

    Here we are not trying to defend the above-mentioned political leaders or to make out that they are all virtuous democrats.

    The point rather is to debunk the false narrative that there is some kind of dichotomy in modern politics between those who, on one hand, are supposedly virtuous, liberal, democratic, multilateralists, and on the other hand, the supposedly sinister “strongman”, “authoritarian”, or “populist”.

    In Obama’s pompous depiction of world political trends, people like him are supposedly the epitome of a civilized, democratic legacy that is now under threat from Neo-fascists who are darkly rising to destroy an otherwise happy world order. That world order, it is presumed, was up to now guided by the magnificence of American political leadership. In short, the “Pax Americana” that prevailed for nearly seven decades following the Second World War.

    Following the Helsinki summit, the Western media went full-tilt in hysterics and hyperbole.

    Trump was assailed for “embracing a dictator” while repudiating Western democratic allies.

    In a Washington Post article, the headline screamed: “Is Trump at war with the West?” It was accompanied by a photograph of Trump and Putin, bearing the caption: “The New Front”.

    Meanwhile, a New York Times piece editorialized: “His [Trump’s] embrace of Putin is a victory dance on the Euro-American tomb.”

    Another NY Times op-ed writer declared: “Trump and Putin vs. America”.

    The Western establishment political and media commentary promulgates the notion that the US-led Western order is breaking down because of “populist”, “strongman” Trump. In this alleged assault on the pillars of democracy and rule of law, Trump is being aided and abetted by supposedly nasty, like-minded authoritarians like Russian leader Vladimir Putin, or other nationalistic European politicians.

    The premise of this establishment narrative is that all was seemingly salubrious and convivial in the US-led order until the arrival of various renegade-type politicians, like Trump and Putin.

    That premise is an absolute conceit and deception. If we look at Obama’s presidency alone, one can see how the supposed guardians of democracy and international order were the very ones who have actually done the most to decimate that order.

    Obama, you will recall, was the US president who notched up seven simultaneous overseas wars conducted by American military, arguably without a shred of international legal mandate. Under international law, Obama and other senior officials in his administration should face prosecution for war crimes. He also greatly expanded the executive use of assassination with aerial drones, reckoned to have killed thousands of innocent civilians in several countries, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and Somalia, merely on the suspicion of being terrorists.

    It was Obama who ramped up the covert war policy of his predecessor GW Bush in Syria, arming and directing terrorist proxies in a failed bid to overthrow the elected government of President Assad. That US-backed covert war in Syria, along with Obama’s overt regime-change war in Libya, largely contributed to the refugee crisis that has destabilized the politics of the European Union.

    So here we have the supremely bitter irony. Obama now lectures audiences with his pseudo-gravitas about the specter of strongman politics and xenophobic populism, when in fact it was politicians like Obama who created much of the refugee problems that have given rise to anti-immigrant politics in Europe.

    It really is a conceited delusion among US and European establishment politicians, pundits and media that somehow a once virtuous, law-abiding US-led Western order is being eroded by rabble rousers like Trump, Salvini, Orban and so on, all being orchestrated by a “strongman dictator” in the Kremlin.

    For the record, Putin, the supposed “strongman” in the Kremlin, warned more than a decade ago in a seminal Munich speech that the international order was being eroded by rampant American unilateralism and disregard for law in its pursuit of illegal wars for US hegemony. That was at the height of US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which killed more than one million civilians and forced millions more into infernal destitution.

    In truth, the Pax Americana that is presumed to have prevailed over the past 70 years was never about order, peace or justice in the world. The notion that the US guided the world with its “moral authority” and maintained stability throughout is one of the most fatuous delusions of modern history.

    From the atomic holocaust in Japan and during subsequent decades, the US has waged wars non-stop in almost every year, whether from covert operations in Latin America and Africa, to full-on genocidal wars in Indochina. The past quarter-century has seen an acceleration and expansion of these US wars, sometimes with the assistance of its military axis in NATO, largely because Washington viewed that its license to kill for mass murder was unchecked after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    This is the real dynamic underlying why the Western order is now seen to be collapsing. The US and its minions among European allies have destroyed any foundations of international order from their unabated wars and campaigns of mass murder. Their corporate-capitalist plunder has eviscerated the planet.

    The chaos from these wars, including economic impacts of gargantuan costs to Western populations, has created social conditions which engender politics of protest, anti-establishment, anti-austerity, anti-war, anti-immigration, and so on.

    If the supposed order is shaking for the establishment political class and its flunkies like Barack Obama it is because of their own criminal depredations – depredations which have been going on for decades under the guise of Pax Americana.

    The writers at Monthly Review had it so presciently right years ago, when they analyzed the actual Western order as “Pox Americana” – a diseased affliction.

    This is the historical context which accounts for why US and European establishments are decrying “strongmen” and “populists”. They are essentially scapegoating others for the historic failure of institutionalized Western criminality led primarily by “democratic” regimes in Washington.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin stands out as the one international leader who put a brake on the US-led criminal assault on global peace. Putin’s stand first emerged with his landmark speech in Munich in 2007, and then came into clear expression when he helped put an end to the US-led covert criminal war on Syria.

    That is why Putin is so vilified and demonized by the Western establishment. The poachers have been stopped from raiding the globe, and in their exasperation, they have whipped up all sorts of disparaging epithets like “strongman” and “authoritarian”.

    No one has practiced more fascist-style criminality and brutality towards law and peace than the polite-sounding pseudo-democrats who have been in office for the past 70 years in the US and Europe.

    The Western political establishment and its elite-driven capitalism is rotten to the core. Always has been. Its own erosion and oozing corruption is the source of the putrid smell that it now wishes to waft away by scapegoating others.

  • Julian Assange's Fate Is Being Decided At The Moment

    Ecuador is holding high level discussions with Britain over the fate of Julian Assange, who has been living in the Ecuadorian embassy in London since 2012 after being granted political asylum, according to comments made by President Lenin Moreno to Spain’s El Pais daily newspaper. 

    “The issue of Mr. Assange is being treated with the British government and I understand that we have already established contact with Mr. Assange’s lawyers so we can find a way out.

    Not true, says Assange’s Attorney Carlos Poveda in a <a href="

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js“>Sunday LaJournada article retweeted by the official WikiLeaks Twitter account. 

    The defense of Julian Assange is concerned about the contradictions of the government of Ecuador, which claims to be seeking a solution to the asylum of the founder of Wikileaks through dialogue, with all parties, but refuses to meet with their lawyers, said Carlos Poveda, one of the activist’s lawyers. –LaJournada (translated)

    “We have followed very closely the statements of President Lenin Moreno both in the United Kingdom and Spain,” said Poveda. “And I must warn that even the legal team that presides (the former judge of the Spanish Supreme Court) Baltasar Garzón requested a hearing to meet in London or Madrid, but they told him that Moreno’s schedule was full during the whole tour.”

    In other words – Moreno is talking out of both sides of his mouth while feigning a new found concern for Assange’s fate (after referring to the WikiLeaks founder as a “hacker”, “an inherited problem” and a “stone in the shoe”).

    We know how (Moreno) addresses the issue , said Poveda, who said that the president’s statements leave us confused.

    In relation to the recent declarations of the Ecuadorian agent chief executive, of which his government is in “permanent” communication with London and with the legal team of Assange, Poveda maintained that that does not happen.

     –LaJournada (translated)

    According to Poveda, Assange’s legal team is still awaiting a response from two letters sent from Madrid weeks ago requesting that Ecuador “explain the situation.” 

    Assange has been holed up in the embassy since 2012. Though Sweden long ago dropped its request that Assange be extradicted, he is still struggling with legal issues in the UK: Earlier this year, a UK court declined to reverse his arrest warrant for violating his bail terms when he initially took refuge at the embassy. Wikileaks has released thousands of diplomatic cables belonging to the US, and US officials, including Attorney General Jeff Sessions, have said Assange’s arrest is a “priority.”

    In March, Ecuador cut Assange off from the outside world – blocking his internet and phone communications over violating a promise not to interfere with other countries’ affairs. 

    Assange particularly drew the ire of Ecuador by angering the Spanish government with his support for separatist leaders in Spain’s Catalonia region who sought to secede last year. –France24

    Moreno told El Pais that the “ideal” solution would be for Assange to endure some sort of UK penalty for violating his parole, before he is extradited to a country “where there is no danger.” 

    Two weeks ago, reports surfaced in the UK media that high level talks were happening between UK and Ecuadorian officials to try and remove Assange from the embassy.

    Foreign Office Minister Sir Alan Duncan is said to be spearheading the diplomatic effort. Sources close to Assange said he himself was not aware of the talks – supporting his attorney’s claim that they’ve been kept in the dark, while Assange believes that America has been putting “significant pressure” on Ecuador, including threatening to block an IMF loan, if he continues to stay at the embassy. 

    Furthermore, as we pointed out weeks ago, the United States imported a record amount of crude from Ecuador (a massive unprecedented surge all of a sudden), which begs the question…was there a payoff?

  • More 30-Year-Olds Still Living With Their Parents, Study Finds

    Young adults are now more likely to live with their parents than in any other living arrangement, according to new analysis of demographic data published by Axios, reflecting trends of the last half decade. And it’s not just a college grad thing anymore as even 30-year-old millennials are now more likely to stay at home while still paying off school loan debt and earning the same or less income than boomers.

    Axios concludes of what it is to be 30 then and now that, “In the mid-to-late-20th century, the American economy and culture were ripe for 30-year-old men, who — more than European and Japanese — typically landed well-paid careers, bought homes, and supported large families. But since then, getting ahead has become much harder.

    So what forces continue to steer people into their parents’ basements? 

    from “Failure to Launch” (2006)

    Naturally, Millennials probably took it for granted that they’d successfully imitate their parents and even surpass them in areas of establishing a financially secure family by their late 20’s or early 30’s, being debt-free while saving for retirement, and earning higher wages than their parents, but the numbers suggest this isn’t happening.

    Though now comprising almost a quarter of the population and as the largest demographic currently in the workforce, their median salaries are lower or the same as the prior generation, yet as Axios finds “the financial burdens they carry are heavier, limiting how much their lifestyle can mirror that of their parents.”

    * * *

    Here’s what it is to be your parents’ thirty vs. being thirty today by the numbers:

    Data, via Axios: College attendancemedian income, and home ownership from U.S. Census Bureau; cost of tuition from CollegeBoard; median debt from “The Great American Debt Boom, 1948-2013” by Alina Bartscher, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick and Ulrike I. Steins; marriage figures from a Pew Research Center analysis of the 1960-2000 decennial censuses and 2010 and 2016 American Community Survey (IPUMS). Note: All dollars are inflation-adjusted to 2016. Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios

    The data suggests:

    • A break with prior American rites of passage, including marriage and child-bearing. According to some demographers, this break could slow economic growth.

    • Men are more likely to earn less. In 1975, only a quarter of 25 to 34-year-old men made less than $30K per year, but that number rose to 41% in 2016.

    • As a measure of upward mobility, 92% of 30-year-olds in 1970 earned more than their parents at that age, according to a 2016 study led by Raj Chetty, a Stanford economist (h/t Roger Lowenstein). But of those who were 30 in 2014, just half earned more. 

    • Chetty attributed most of this erosion to slower GDP growth and a change in the distribution of GDP favoring higher earners: GDP would have to rise by 6% a year to get the same impact, he said, and wealth would have to be distributed much more evenly.
    • In other words, Chetty suggested, it has become much, much harder for young lower- and middle-income workers to earn as much of the nation’s growing wealth as they once did.

    * * *

    In 2015 Millennials set a 75-year record for highest percentage of young adults living at home with mom:

    As Axios explains further, 30-year-olds today are:

    • Living with their parents: In 1975, when the oldest Boomers were 29, 57% of 18 to 34- year-olds lived with a spouse in their own household. Even as late as 1990, almost half lived with a partner. But in 2016, 31% were living in their parents’ home, making it the new, most common living arrangement for young adultsaccording to Census data.

    • Paying more for college: In 1975, college tuition cost $2,450 for public, four-year colleges (in 2017 dollars). In 2017, it was almost $10,000, according to the CollegeBoard.

    • In more debt: In 1989, less than 20% of families had student debt, compared with 41% in 2013, according to the Census. The amount owed almost tripled in that time.

    • Less likely to be homeowners: 57% of 30 to 34-year-olds were homeowners in 1982, compared with just 45% in 2017.

    But many young Americans are still opting not to own, but rather rent, which is a factor…

    And other drivers of the trend are as follows:

    • The impact of significant student debt can be seen in lower marriage rates, according to Dora Gicheva, an economist at UNC Greensboro.
    • In 2017, 57% of millennials were never married. In 1985 — when boomers were around the same age — only a third had never been married, Pew Research’s Richard Fry told Axios. Even accounting for unmarried living partners does not make up the difference, he said.

    • Having fewer children: When Boomers were in their 20s, the fertility rate was 2.48, well beyond the replacement level of 2.1. Today, it is just 1.76.

    • When a recent survey asked why they were having fewer kids, most young adults said “child care is too expensive.”

    Generally, Millennials are best represented in the labor force yet are still most likely to live with their parents.

    Richard Jackson, president of the Global Aging Institute, told Axios “Millennials are more risk averse than earlier generations at the same age. People 50 or even 25 years ago didn’t wait to be ‘financially well established’ before starting a family. Now it’s considered irresponsible not to.”

  • After A Week Online, NATO's Latest 'Counter-Disinfo' Facebook Game Is A Complete Flop

    We might consider this a bit of lighthearted weekend humor, but unfortunately it’s all too real and all too lame, especially considering significant funding and resources actually went into this. And given that it’s NATO, somebody’s tax dollars had to actually foot the bill. But even NBC’s write-up of the story comes close to making fun of NATO’s latest attempt to combat fake news in pointing out that reaction… appears to muted”.

    NATO a week ago launched its newly unveiled “weapon in the disinformation battleground” to counter the big scary Russians and all others bent on manipulating the news toward their own sinister ends, as NBC explains:

    Researchers at the defense alliance have developed a Facebook game that they believe can help people to be more discerning when sharing news online.

    Initial reaction to the game, which is called The News Hero, appears to be muted. By Friday morning, it had received just 50 likes and one share.

    YouTube screengrab from the NATO-created online game “The News Hero”

    The online game is designed to be played and shared on Facebook, and far from being some kind of action/spy or historical thriller (which might actually be somewhat interesting among the youth it aims to target), it places gamers in the position of being a news publisher in a professional newsroom

    Players have to decide whether the headlines that pass their virtual ‘desk’ are real or fake. The game’s creator’s say they’re seeking to educate the Western public on how to properly discern real news from fake news or worse, Russian state disinformation campaigns.

    The News Hero was developed over a period of four months by a team of eight people at the NATO Strategic Communications Center of Excellence in Latvia, which bills itself as “focused on countering misinformation campaigns” (yes, the name of this NATO unit is real).

    NBC’s report noted the developers were not forthcoming with just how much money was spent on the project. 

    Here’s the brief game primer for ‘The News Hero’ hosted on an official NATO Stratcom account:

    As Stars and Stripes explains, “the user is responsible for putting together a newspaper free of the phony. With the help of trusty assistant Bronco, you decide what is real and what is fake.”

    Or rather, you decide what NATO wants you to identify as fake, or real, or disinfo, or untrustworthy as a source

    The NATO-created “News Hero” Facebook game launched a week ago.

    Though the online game launched last Monday — a full week ago — it now has… wait for it… a whopping 3 shares and 123 ‘likes’ as of late in the day Sunday. 

    So it appears people aren’t even so much as making the effort to share it out of mockery, much less actually playing and promoting the game. 

    The News Hero Facebook page describes the rules and objectives as follows: 

    To get your company noticed and gain an audience, you must publish accurate news. Pay attention to the hints provided in the Fact Checker screen and verify the incoming stories. With each level becoming increasingly difficult you can hire new assistants and obtain things to customize your office. This will boost performance of your employees and help you earn more. The game is divided into three levels, each informing the player on how to distinguish between the fact and the fiction. Are you up for the challenge? Invite your friends and climb the leaderboard!

    And Stars and Stripes explains some of the ‘fake vs. true’ news scenarios presented in the game as follows

    Is Justin Timberlake really an anti-vaccination activist? Did a lady in Detroit really train a squirrel to attack her boyfriend?

    In The News Hero, you have to decide — though a fact-checker does most of the thinking for you.

    If you’re right, you gain virtual currency and a larger audience as reader trust grows for your news organization. If only it were so easy in the perilous real news world, where profits are elusive and clickbait an ever-growing lure.

    One of the two reviews on the game’s Facebook page sarcastically quips: OK. So this is the ‘push back’. An ‘A’ for effort!

    It’s interesting to recall that ahead of and during the NATO summit in Brussels earlier this month President Donald Trump made headlines for berating other NATO member states for not living up to a prior 2014 pledge for member states to reach two percent spending of GDP on defense by 2024.

    However, we doubt that the president had such further projects as The News Hero in mind when he called for more NATO defense spending. The online game is clearly a complete and utter flop. 

  • Facebook, Zuck Sued By "Shocked" Shareholders As "The Truth" Emerges

    Following a disappointing earnings announcement that wiped out about $120 billion of shareholder wealth, Facebook, its CEO and CFO, are being sued by a shareholder potentially opening the floodgates for sore-losing stock market gamblers the world over.

    “As a result of Defendants’ wrongful acts and omissions, and the precipitous decline in the market value of the Company’s common shares, Plaintiff and other Class members have suffered significant losses and damages

    Who could have seen that coming?

    The complaint filed by shareholder James Kacouris in Manhattan federal court accused Facebook, Zuckerberg and Chief Financial Officer David Wehner of making misleading statements about or failing to disclose slowing revenue growth, falling operating margins, and declines in active users.

    Kacouris said the marketplace was “shocked” when “the truth” began to emerge on Wednesday from the Menlo Park, California-based company. He said the 19 percent plunge in Facebook shares the next day stemmed from federal securities law violations by the defendants.

    “The Individual Defendants possessed the power and authority to control the contents of Facebook’s SEC filings, press releases, and other market communications. The Individual Defendants were provided with copies of the Company’s SEC filings and press releases alleged herein to be misleading prior to or shortly after their issuance and had the ability and opportunity to prevent their issuance or to cause them to be corrected.

    Because of their positions with the Company, and their access to material information available to them but not to the public, the Individual Defendants knew that the adverse facts specified herein had not been disclosed to and were being concealed from the public, and that the positive representations being made were then materially false and misleading. The Individual Defendants are liable for the false statements and omissions pleaded herein.”

    Presumably Mr Kacouris would have preferred if Zuck had leaked the material non-public information to him first so he could have unwound his holdings in Facebook shares and avoided the losses from reality suddenly biting on a stock that has grown to the proverbial skies.

    As Reuters notes, shareholders often sue companies in the United States after unexpected stock price declines, especially if the loss of wealth is large. The lawsuit seeks class-action status and unspecified damages. A Facebook spokeswoman declined to comment.

    Full Docket below…

  • The US 2019 Defense Budget Bill: Congress Defies The New World Order

    Authored by Alex Gorka via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The House and Senate versions of the draft National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2019 were unveiled by Congress on July 23. Both include a provision to temporarily bar the transfers of F-35 joint strike fighters (JSF) to Turkey.

    According to the final 2019 defense bill, the Defense Department would be required to submit a report to lawmakers within 90 days about the relationship with Ankara, all its foreign weapons deals, and Turkey’s move to purchase the S-400 air-defense system from Russia before any more sales could go through. Until then the US would sit on any weapons transfers to Turkey. Ankara’s decision to buy the Russian S-400 air-defense system, the “F-35 killer,” has greatly aggravated bilateral ties between the US and Turkey, a relationship that was already clouded by many other issues. 

    The House is expected to vote on the legislation this month, with the Senate taking it up in early August. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis had warned Congress against punishing Turkey by cutting off transfers of F-35s in retaliation for its plans to buy the Russian anti-aircraft system, but his opinion was ignored. The State Department has been putting pressure on Ankara to try to make it reconsider the S-400 deal, in favor of purchasing the less capable, US-made Patriot system.  US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Wess Mitchell told the Senate “We’ve been very clear that across the board, an acquisition of S-400 will inevitably affect the prospects for Turkish military-industrial cooperation with the United States, including F-35.” Turkish officials view the US demand as blackmail.

    Turkey is one of twelve partner nations in the F-35 program, nine of which have received the fighters through foreign military sales. Ankara has planned to purchase the 100 F-35 aircraft it technically already owns by investing $1.25 billion into the project. US legislators fear that using the F-35 and the S-400 together could compromise the F-35 and allow Russia to gain access to the sensitive technology.  As a result, the true owner has been denied access to his property by both houses of US Congress.

    The bill includes a compromise waiver under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act  (CAATSA) for the countries purchasing Russian military equipment, as long as they are taking steps to wean themselves from it.

    The deal with Turkey is a part of a broader picture. The Philippines, also a long-time ally of Washington that has long relied on the United States as its main source of military hardware,  is at risk of falling under US sanctions if it proceeds with its purchase of grenade launchers from Rosoboronexport, a blacklisted Russian firm. India has been threatened with sanctions should it decide to buy the Russian S-400.

    The US State Department’s Office of Cooperative Threat Reduction has announced a tender for the monitoring of open-source information about arms deals involving the Russian Federation and the CIS countries. The information will be used for shaping the sanctions policy.

    This policy goes beyond weapons deals to encompass economic issues as well. One can pay off. Take Germany, for instance. It has been threatened by sanctions in the event that the Nord Stream 2 gas project goes through. The English version of the German newspaper Handelsblatt reported that plans are afoot for a new LNG terminal in Brunsbüttel, a town in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein.  Once the costly infrastructure to cool and liquefy LNG is in place, the German government can demonstrate that the US is wrong to accuse it of being almost fully dependent on Russian gas. There are plans to invest an estimated €450 million ($530 million). Once built, the terminal cannot sit idle. The shipments of American LNG will be guaranteed. 

    But indeed there is no such thing as a free lunch. If Berlin wants to get cheap Russia gas, it will also have to spend some time and effort on building the infrastructure to receive Moscow’s LNG, and at that point, paying a lot more for American sea-transported  LNG will hike the country’s overall energy expenditures

    Perhaps Turkey could come to some kind of compromise with the Americans on the S-400, if it buys the Patriot as well.  Maybe India will find a way to evade sanctions, if it agrees to the US offer of THAAD..

    On July 24, US Senators Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), announced that they are working on comprehensive legislation, which officially is aimed at ratcheting up the sanctions pressure on Russia. The text of the proposed legislation does not say so, but the true goal is to lean on other nations to buy US-made goods or else. Forget about the international rules stipulated by the UN Charter and WTO documents — “arms-twisting” has become an element of US foreign policy.

    Nobody likes to be ordered around and blackmailed. In the long run, this policy will encourage other countries to reconcile their differences and unify, in an effort to push back against the US. Today Russia China, the EU, and many other actors face a common problem — the “do as I tell you” approach used by the US to tackle international problems, whatever they are. Those who had doubts about the merits of a multipolar world order are beginning to see things in a different light.  Any state structure needs checks and balances to maintain an equilibrium, and so does the world. The BRICS summit that kicked off in Johannesburg, South Africa on July 25 symbolizes some global changes, in which poles of power outside of the US are emerging to reshape the political world map.

  • "Now The Real Economic War Begins, With America And Europe Allied"

    Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO Of New River Asset Management, as excerpted from his latest Weekend Notes

    The US and EU account for over 50% of global GDP and have the world’s largest bilateral trade relationship, exchanging $1.1trln of goods and services annually; there’s no more integrated economic relationship on earth. One-third of world trade involves the US and EU – the US is humanity’s #1 customer, accounting for 18% of all imports, the EU is #2 at 15%.

    Total US investment in the EU is 3x higher than its investment in all of Asia. EU investment in the US is 8x higher than its investment in India and China combined. The US and EU have 880mm people (12% of total population), $180trln of wealth (65% of global wealth) and own nearly all of humanity’s intellectual property.

    To be sure, we have our differences, but heaven help this planet’s divided nations if we set those aside and seek material advantage.

    * * *

    “Mr. President, ladies and gentlemen, when I was invited by the President to the White House, I had one intention: I had the intention to make a deal today,” announced Jean-Claude Juncker, camera’s clicking, a media whir, history in the making. “And we made a deal today,” continued the President of the European Commission, as a shockwave circled the planet.

    You see, throughout Europe’s timeless saga, never had a single politician cut a real deal on behalf of the entire continent, though not through any lack of effort. Many fought to attain the power of a united Europe – the Romans, Charlemagne, the short Frenchman with an ulcer, Austria’s most famous Adolph. Juncker’s unlike them all. He’s a creature of Europe’s modern union, a concept born of utter exhaustion, profound weakness.

    After a few thousand-year fight with itself, the continent abandoned ambition, and became a tourist attraction for wealthy Americans and Chinese, who swarm its antique cities, admiring their ancient achievements, aspirations.

    “So we had a big day. Very big. We met right here at the White House to launch a new phase in the relationship between the United States and the European Union — a phase of close friendship; of strong trade relations in which both of us will win; of working better together for global security and prosperity; and of fighting jointly against terrorism,” said Trump, triumphant.

    “The European Union is going to do better, stronger, bigger. We will therefore work closely together with like-minded partners to reform the WTO and to address unfair trading practices, including intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, industrial subsidies, distortions created by state-owned enterprises, and overcapacity,” continued our President, describing China, America’s only rival, the one remaining world power with any true ambition.

    And so now the real economic war begins, with America and Europe allied.

  • Brace For A "Storm Of News" In The Coming Week

    In the aftermath of the busiest week of Q2 earnings season, just as traders prepare to depart for their various vacation destinations, a whirlwind of economic and financial events – or as Bloomberg calls it, a “storm of news“, is about to be unleashed on the globe, including closely watched central bank announcements from the BOJ, the Fed and BOE, while the US jobs report on Friday in conjunction with inflation data scattered over the week for the US and Europe will keep traders on their toes. In addition, there are also 145 S&P 500 companies due to report as earnings in Europe will also ramp up. Finally, the US Treasury will unveil its latest bond sale details which are expected to result in an increase to auction sizes,

    We start with the Bank of Japan, where unlike recent snoozers, Tuesday’s announcement will warrant greater attention following recent speculation in the media about whether we’ll see a tweak in the yield curve targets. Despite rumors it could soon unveil a plan to eventually adjust its stimulus by revising the 0% target fof 10Y JGBs, all 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Bank of Japan will maintain the current setting on interest rates, while Governor Kuroda is set to unveil fresh inflation forecasts, which the press has leaked will be in a downward direction. An increase in the JGB yield target appears unlikely at a time when it is expected to revise downward its inflation forecast. According to Deutsche Bank, the BoJ will declare at the end of its statement that, based on its analysis in its quarterly Outlook Report, it will maintain its easing policy for an extended period “but will conduct financial market operations and asset purchasing operations to address the mounting cumulative side effects.” One likely adjustment is that the BOJ will overhaul its ETF purchasing operations (by shifting from Nikkei 225-linked ETF to Topix-linked ETF, leading to potential weakness for the Nikkei).

    The Fed will likewise not announce any change in policy given that this is not a meeting that includes a post-meeting  conference or a fresh summary of economic projections. However in light of the recent escalation in trade war, it’ll be interesting to see the Fed’s updated views. Recent comments from President Trump about Fed policy shouldn’t however have any impact on the Fed’s approach to monetary policy.

    Moving on to the BOE, for the third central bank next week, the consensus expects a 25bp hike on Thursday, something that the market is currently assigning a 90% chance of happening. While the market has priced around 80% odds of a rate hike, many will be looking for signs that it won’t be a one-and-done as Brexit concerns weigh on the pound. There will be close attention on the vote count too. Should the BOE hike, this would mark the first time since 2009 that the bank rate would be above 0.5%. The latest BoE economic projections will also be released including new forecasts for growth and inflation. Governor Carney will offer an updated view on the neutral rate.

    In terms of the data due out next week, Friday’s employment report in the US will be the main focus. Consensus expects that 193k jobs were created in July, following the 213k print back in June. The unemployment rate is expected to fall one-tenth to 3.9% which would put it a tenth above the post-financial crisis low, while average hourly earnings are expected to come in at +0.3% mom which should keep the annual rate at +2.7%. Commenting on the market reaction, Bloomberg notes that “the jobs report will be keenly watched as always, but while the last one weighed on the dollar, it’s worth noting that Treasury market reaction in recent months has tended to be relatively fleeting.” And with the unemployment rate no longer a source of signal, and at record lows, focus will remain on the increase (or decrease) in the growth rate of average hourly earnings and what that might say about inflation more broadly.

    There is also a fresh batch of inflation data from around the globe, where many expect a continuation of the recent tapering in rising prices. In the US we’ll get the June PCE report on Tuesday where the market expects a modest +0.1% mom core and deflator reading, the former enough to keep the annual rate at +2.0% yoy. In Europe we’ll also get flash July CPI readings for the Eurozone on Tuesday (+1.0% yoy core reading expected, up from +0.9% in June) as well as regional readings for Germany and Spain on Monday, and France and Italy on Tuesday.

    Other data to watch out for in the US next week include the July consumer confidence print on Tuesday, July ISM manufacturing report on Wednesday and July PMIs on Friday. The remaining July PMIs in Europe are also out on Friday as well as for Asia on Tuesday (China) and Friday (China and Japan). Away from that, in Europe we get the advance Q2 GDP reading for the Euro area on Tuesday, with expectations for a +0.5% qoq reading.

    The trade war will get another push next week when the end of the review period for potential tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese goods arrives on Tuesday.

    In the last busy week of Q2 earnings season for the US, we will see 145 S&P 500 companies report. The highlights are Caterpillar on Monday – which is always a good barometer for global growth – Apple, Procter & Gamble and Pfizer on Tuesday, Metlife on Wednesday, Dupont on Thursday, and Berkshire Hathaway on Friday. In Europe we’ll also get releases from Volkswagen, Siemens, BP, Barclays and Credit Suisse.

    Finally as Deutsche Bank’s Craig Nicol points out, other scheduled events next week which could warrant keeping an eye on include President Trump hosting Italian PM Conte on Monday at the White House, UK Foreign Secretary Hunt co-chairing the China-UK Strategic Dialogue with China counterpart Wang Yi, also on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov meeting Japan Foreign Minister Kono on Tuesday, and the US Treasury releasing its latest borrowing plans on Wednesday.

    Summary of key global economic indicators and events this week

    Source: Goldman Sachs

    * * *

    A breakdown of key daily events, via Deutshe Bank:

    • Monday: It’s a quiet start to the week on Monday. Overnight we get June retail sales in Japan. In Europe, we’ll get the preliminary July CPI print for Spain followed by June money and credit aggregates data in the UK and July confidence indicators for the Euro area. In the afternoon we’ll then get the July preliminary CPI report for Germany, while in the US the data includes June pending home sales data and the July Dallas Fed manufacturing activity print. Away from that, President Donald Trump will host Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte at the White House, while earnings highlights include Caterpillar.
    • Tuesday: All eyes on Tuesday will be on the BoJ monetary policy meeting. Datawise, we get the July GfK consumer confidence print for the UK overnight along with preliminary June industrial production for Japan and July PMIs China. In Europe, we’ll get preliminary July CPI prints for France, Italy and the Euro area along with the advance Q2 GDP release for the Euro area. In the US, June PCE and the Q2 ECI data should be the main focus, while the July Chicago PMI and July consumer confidence data are also slated for release. Apple earnings will also be a big focus, while Procter & Gamble, Pfizer, BP and Credit Suisse numbers are also due.
    • Wednesday: The big highlight on Wednesday is the Fed monetary policy meeting outcome at 19:00 BST. Prior to this, data releases include the final July manufacturing PMI for Japan and July Caixin manufacturing PMI for China. In Europe, we’ll also get the remaining July manufacturing PMIs while in the US the July ADP employment change reading, final July manufacturing PMI, June construction spending, July ISM manufacturing and July total vehicle sales data are all due. Away from that, Tesla and Metlife will be reporting Q2 earnings. It’s worth also noting that the US Treasury will unveil its latest borrowing plans.
    • Thursday: The main focus on Thursday will likely be the BoE’s MPC meeting outcome at 12:00 BST. It’s a quiet day for data in Europe with June PPI for the Euro area the only release of note. In the US, the latest weekly initial jobless claims print is due along with June factory orders data and the final June durable and capital goods orders revisions. Away from the data, the BoJ’s Amamiya will speak overnight. Earnings wise, Barclays, Siemens and Dupont will report.
    • Friday: We end the week on Friday with the July employment report in the US. Away from that, overnight, we get the BoJ’s June monetary policy meeting minutes along with July services and composite PMIs for Japan and July Caixin services and composite PMIs for China. In Europe the final services and composite PMIs are also due along with June retail sales for the Euro area. In the US, the other data includes the final July services and composite PMI prints along with July ISM non-manufacturing composite. Berkshire Hathaway will report its Q2 earnings.

    * * *

    Finally, focusing just on the US, Goldman writes that the key economic releases this week include core PCE on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Wednesday, and payrolls on Friday. The statement following the FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

    Monday, July 30

    • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, June (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.5%): We estimate pending home sales rebounded 0.5%, following a 0.5% decline in the May report. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag.
    • 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, July (consensus +31.0, last +36.5)

    Tuesday, July 31

    • 8:30 AM Personal income, June (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, June (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.2%); PCE price index, June (GS +0.07%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.21); Core PCE price index, June (GS +0.07%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.21%); PCE price index (yoy), June (GS +2.28%, consensus +2.3%, last +2.25%); Core PCE price index (yoy), June (GS +1.84%, consensus +2.0%, last +1.96%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose +0.07% month-over-month in June, or 1.84% from a year ago. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index also increased 0.07% in June, or 2.28% from a year earlier. We expect a 0.3% increase in June personal income and a 0.5% gain in personal spending.
    • Employment Cost Index, Q2 (GS +0.6% vs. consensus +0.7%, prior +0.8%); We estimate that the employment cost index (ECI) rose 0.6% in Q2 (qoq sa). While we remain constructive on wage growth, we note the possibility that larger-than-normal annual wage increases may have contributed to the cycle-high ECI growth in Q1 (+0.84% qoq ar). Accordingly, we see scope for a modest deceleration in the sequential pace (that nonetheless boosts the year-over-year rate by a tenth to 2.7%). Our wage tracker—which distills signals from several wage measures—edged up to 2.7% in Q2 from 2.6% in Q1 and 2.3% in Q4.
    • 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, May (GS +0.2, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased 0.2% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April. Our forecast of a modest increase reflects a slowdown of the strong trend the index has been following (now +0.5%, 3mma) relative to the more subdued pace of other home price indices.
    • 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, July (GS 63.0, consensus 61.8, last 64.1): Regional manufacturing surveys were mixed in July, and we estimate that the Chicago PMI moved down by 1.1pt to 63.0. Uncertainty about trade policy could potentially weigh on business sentiment in this report.
    • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, July (GS 126.0, consensus 126.5, last 126.4): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index decreased 0.4pt to 126.0 in July, following a decline of 2.4pt in the previous month. While the index remains close to post-crisis highs, our forecast reflects a slight decrease in other consumer sentiment measures earlier in the month.

    Wednesday, August 1

    • 08:15 AM ADP employment report, July (GS +200k, consensus +185k, last +177k); Based on our understanding of how ADP filters its own proprietary data with other publicly available information, we expect a 200k gain in ADP payroll employment in July, partly driven by an improvement in initial jobless claims.
    • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI, July final (consensus 55.5, last 55.5)
    • 10:00 AM Construction spending, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%): We estimate construction spending increased 0.4% in June, following an increase in May that reflected relatively firm private single family and multifamily construction but weaker commercial construction.
    • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing, July (GS 59.7, consensus 59.3, last 60.2): Our manufacturing survey tracker – which is scaled to the ISM index — declined from its all-time high by 0.4pt to 60.4 following slightly softer, but still strong, manufacturing surveys in July. Industrial firm commentary in regard to sales trends has remained firm, but we do not expect the same boost that last month saw from a sharp increase in the supplier deliveries component. All taken together, we expect the ISM manufacturing index to decline by 0.5pt to 59.7.
    • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, July 31 – August 1 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we do not expect any policy changes next week and expect only limited changes to the post-meeting statement. We expect an upbeat statement consistent with a September hike, retaining most of the positive characterizations from the June meeting, given solid US growth data and stable financial conditions.
    • 4:00 PM Total vehicle sales, July (GS 17.2mn, consensus 17.0mn, last 17.4mn)

    Thursday, August 2

    • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 28 (GS 220k, consensus 220k, last 217k);  Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 21 (last 1,745k): We estimate initial jobless claims increased by 3k to 220k in the week ended July 28, following a 9k increase in the previous week. The trend in initial jobless claims appears to be declining, and the auto plant shutdowns have led to major spikes in layoffs over the last few weeks.
    • 10:00 AM Factory Orders, June (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.4%); Durable goods orders, June final (last +1.0%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June final (last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, June final (last +0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, March final (last +1.0%): We estimate factory orders rose 0.5% in June following a 0.4% increase in May. Headline durable goods orders were strong in the June advance report, largely driven by an increase in non-defense aircraft orders. Core measures were solid, with increases in both core capital goods orders and core capital goods shipments.

    Friday, August 3

    • 8:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, July (GS +205k, consensus +190k, last +213k); Private payroll employment, July (GS +200k, consensus +185k, last +202k); Average hourly earnings (mom), July (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), July (GS +2.6%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.7%); Unemployment rate, July (GS 3.9%, consensus 3.9%, last 4.0%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 205k in July. Our forecast reflects new lows in initial jobless claims and continued strength in service-sector employment surveys. We expect the unemployment rate to partially reverse its June increase, falling a tenth to 3.9%. While continuing claims rebounded during the payroll month, the June participation rate was at the high end of its multi-year range, and we expect it to drift lower in coming quarters. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.6% year over year, reflecting unfavorable calendar effects.
    • 8:30 AM Trade balance, June (GS -$46.7bn, consensus -$46.1bn, last -$43.1bn): We estimate the trade deficit widened by $3.6bn in June, reflecting a similar widening in the goods trade deficit in the Advance Economic Indicators report last week.
    • 09:45 AM Markit flash US services PMI, July final (consensus 56.2, last 56.2)
    • 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, July (GS 58.7, consensus 58.6, last 59.1): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to decline by 0.4pt to 58.7 in July. On net, our nonmanufacturing survey tracker moved down 0.5pt to 58.1, reflecting a general softening of service-sector surveys.

    Source: DB, BofA, Goldman, Bloomberg

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Today’s News 29th July 2018

  • Entering A 1984 World, Trump-Style

    Authored by Michael Klare via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The pundits and politicians generally take it for granted that President Trump lacks a coherent foreign policy. They believe that he acts solely out of spite, caprice, and political opportunism — lashing out at U.S. allies like Germany’s Angela Merkel and England’s Theresa May only to embrace authoritarian rulers like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. His instinctive rancor and impulsiveness seemed on full display during his recent trip to Europe, where he lambasted Merkel, undercut May, and then, in an extraordinary meeting with Putin, dismissed any concerns over Russian meddling in the 2016 American presidential election (before half-walking his own comments back).

    “Nobody knows when Trump is doing international diplomacy and when he is doing election campaigning in Montana,” commented Danish defense minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen following the summit. “It is difficult to decode what policy the American president is promoting. There is a complete unpredictability in this.”

    While that reaction may be typical, it’s a mistake to assume that Trump lacks a coherent foreign-policy blueprint. In fact, an examination of his campaign speeches and his actions since entering the Oval Office — including his appearance with Putin — reflect his adherence to a core strategic concept: the urge to establish a tripolar world order, one that was, curiously enough, first envisioned by Russian and Chinese leaders in 1997 and one that they have relentlessly pursued ever since.

    Such a tripolar order — in which Russia, China, and the U.S. would each assume responsibility for maintaining stability within their own respective spheres of influence while cooperating to resolve disputes wherever those spheres overlap — breaks radically with the end-of-the-Cold-War paradigm. During those heady years, the United States was the dominant world power and lorded it over most of the rest of the planet with the aid of its loyal NATO allies.

    For Russian and Chinese leaders, such a “unipolar” system was considered anathema.  After all, it granted the United States a hegemonic role in world affairs while denying them what they considered their rightful place as America’s equals. Not surprisingly, destroying such a system and replacing it with a tripolar one has been their strategic objective since the late 1990s — and now an American president has zealously embraced that disruptive project as his own.

    The Sino-Russian Master Plan

    The joint Russian-Chinese project to undermine the unipolar world system was first set in motion when then-Chinese President Jiang Zemin conferred with then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin during a state visit to Moscow in April 1997. Restoring close relations with Russia while building a common front against U.S. global dominance was reportedly the purpose of Jiang’s trip.

    “Some are pushing toward a world with one center,” said Yeltsin at the time. “We want the world to be multipolar, to have several focal points. These will form the basis for a new world order.”

    This outlook was inscribed in a “Joint Declaration on a Multipolar World and the Establishment of a New International Order,” signed by the two leaders on April 23, 1997.  Although phrased in grandiose language (as its title suggests), the declaration remains worth reading as it contains most of the core principles on which Donald Trump’s foreign policy now rests.

    At its heart lay a condemnation of global hegemony — the drive by any single nation to dominate world affairs — along with a call for the establishment of a “multipolar” international order. It went on to espouse other key precepts that would now be considered Trumpian, including unqualified respect for state sovereignty, non-interference in the domestic affairs of other states (code for no discussion of their human rights abuses), and the pursuit of mutual economic advantage.

    Yeltsin would resign as president in December 1999, while Jiang would complete his term in March 2003. Their successors, Vladimir Putin and Hu Jintao, would, however, continue to build on that 1997 foundational document, issuing their own blueprint for a tripolar world in 2005.

    Following a Kremlin meeting that July, the two would sign an updated “Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation Regarding the International Order of the 21st Century.”  It was even more emphatic in its commitment to a world in which the United States would be obliged to negotiate on equal terms with Moscow and Beijing, stating:

    “The international community should thoroughly renounce the mentality of confrontation and alignment, should not pursue the right to monopolize or dominate world affairs, and should not divide countries into a leading camp and a subordinate camp… World affairs should be decided through dialogue and consultation on a multilateral and collective basis.”

    The principal aim of such a strategy was, and continues to be, to demolish a U.S.-dominated world order — especially one in which that dominance was ensured by American reliance on its European allies and NATO. The ability to mobilize not only its own power but also Europe’s gave Washington a particularly outsized role in international affairs. If such ties could be crippled or destroyed, its clout would obviously be diminished and so it might someday become just another regional heavyweight.

    In those years, Putin was particularly vocal in calling for the dissolution of NATO and its replacement by a European-wide security system that would, of course, include his country. The divisions in Europe “will continue until there is a single security area in Europe,” he told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera in 2001. Just as the Warsaw Pact had been disbanded as the Cold War ended, he argued, so Western Europe’s Cold War-era alliance, NATO, should be replaced with a broader security structure.

    Donald Trump Climbs on Board

    There is no way to know whether Donald Trump was ever aware — no matter how indirectly — of such Sino-Russian goals or planning, but there can be no question that, in his own fashion and for his own reasons, he has absorbed their fundamental principles.  As his recent assaults on NATO and his embrace of the Russian president suggest, he is visibly seeking to create the very tripolar world once envisioned by Boris Yeltsin and Jiang Zemin and zealously promoted by Vladimir Putin ever since he assumed office.

    The proof that Trump sought such an international system can be found in his 2016 campaign speeches and interviews. While he repeatedly denounced China for its unfair trade practices and complained about Russia’s nuclear-weapons buildup, he never described those countries as mortal enemies.  They were rivals or competitors with whose leaders he could communicate and, when advantageous, cooperate. On the other hand, he denounced NATO as a drain on America’s prosperity and its ability to maneuver successfully in the world.  Indeed, he saw that alliance as eminently dispensable if its members were unwilling to support his idea of how to promote America’s best interests in a highly competitive world.

    “I am proposing a new foreign policy focused on advancing America’s core national interests, promoting regional stability, and producing an easing of tensions in the world,” he declared in a September 2016 speech in Philadelphia. From that speech and other campaign statements, you can get a pretty good idea of his mindset.

    First, make the United States — already the world’s most powerful nation — even stronger, especially militarily. Second, protect America’s borders. (“Immigration security,” he explained, “is a vital part of our national security.”) Third, in contrast to the version of globalism previously espoused by the American version of a liberal international order, this country was to pursue only its own interests, narrowly defined. Playing the role of global enforcer for allies, he argued, had impoverished the United States and must be ended. “At some point,” as he put it to New York Times reporters Maggie Haberman and David Sanger in March 2016, “we cannot be the policeman of the world.”

    As for NATO, he couldn’t have been clearer: it had become irrelevant and its preservation should no longer be an American priority. “Obsolete” was the word he used with Haberman and Sanger. “When NATO was formed many decades ago… there was a different threat, [the Soviet Union,]… which was much bigger… [and] certainly much more powerful than even today’s Russia.” The real threat, he continued, is terrorism, and NATO had no useful role in combating that peril. “I think, probably a new institution maybe would be better for that than using NATO, which was not meant for that.”

    All of this, of course, fit to a T what Vladimir Putin has long been calling for, not to speak of the grand scheme articulated by Yeltsin and Jiang in 1997. Indeed, during the second presidential debate, Trump went even further, saying, “I think it would be great if we got along with Russia because we could fight ISIS together.”

    Though the focus at the moment is purely on President Trump and Russia, let’s not forget China. While frequently lambasting the Chinese in the economic realm, he has nonetheless sought Beijing’s help in addressing the North Korean nuclear threat and other common perils. He speaks often by telephone with President Xi Jinping and insists that they enjoy an amicable relationship. Indeed, to the utter astonishment of many of his Republican allies, he even allowed the Chinese telecommunications giant ZTE to regainaccess to essential American technology and computer chips after paying a $1 billion fine, though the firm had been widely accused of violating U.S. sanctions on trade with Iran and North Korea. Such a move was, he claimed, “reflective” of his wish to negotiate a successful trade deal with China “and my personal relationship with President Xi.”

    Trump’s World Reflects That Sino-Russian Plan

    Although there’s no evidence that Donald Trump ever even knew about the Sino-Russian blueprint for establishing a tripolar global order, everything he’s done as president has had the affect of facilitating that world-altering project. This was stunningly evident at the recent Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki, where he repeatedly spoke of his desire to cooperate with Moscow in solving global problems.

    “The disagreements between our two countries are well known and President Putin and I discussed them at length today,” he said at the press conference that followed their private conversation. “But if we’re going to solve many of the problems facing our world, then we’re going to have to find ways to cooperate in pursuit of shared interests.” He then went on to propose that officials of the national security councils of the two countries get together to discuss such matters — an extraordinary proposal given the historical mistrust between Washington and Moscow.

    And despite the furor his warm embrace of Putin triggered in Washington, Trump doubled down on his strategic concept by inviting the Russian leader to the White House for another round of one-on-one talks this fall. According to White House press secretary Sarah Sanders, National Security Advisor John Bolton is already in preparatory talks with the Kremlin for such a meeting.

    The big question in all this, of course, is: Why? Why would an American president seek to demolish a global order in which the United States was the dominant player and enjoyed the support of so many loyal and wealthy allies?  Why would he want to replace it with one in which it would be but one of three regional heavyweights?

    Undoubtedly, historians will debate this question for decades. The obvious answer, offered by so many pundits, is that he doesn’t actually know what he’s doing, that it’s all thoughtless and impulsive. But there’s another possible answer: that he intuits in the Sino-Russian template a model that the United States could emulate to its benefit.

    In the Trumpian mindset, this country had become weak and overextended because of its uncritical adherence to the governing precepts of the liberal international order, which called for the U.S. to assume the task of policing the world while granting its allies economic and trade advantages in return for their loyalty. Such an assessment, whether accurate or not, certainly jibes well with the narrative of victimization that so transfixed his core constituency in rustbelt areas of Middle America. It also suggests that an inherited burden could now be discarded, allowing for the emergence of a less-encumbered, stronger America — much as a stronger Russia has emerged in this century from the wreckage of the Soviet Union and a stronger China from the wreckage of Maoism. This reinvigorated country would still, of course, have to compete with those other two powers, but from a far stronger position, being able to devote all its resources to economic growth and self-protection without the obligation of defending half of the rest of the world.

    Listen to Trump’s speeches, read through his interviews, and you’ll find just this proposition lurking behind virtually everything he has to say on foreign policy and national security. “You know… there is going to be a point at which we just can’t do this anymore,” he told Haberman and Sanger in 2016, speaking of America’s commitments to allies. “You know, when we did those deals, we were a rich country… We were a rich country with a very strong military and tremendous capability in so many ways. We’re not anymore.”

    The only acceptable response, he made clear, was to jettison such overseas commitments and focus instead on “restoring” the country’s self-defense capabilities through a massive buildup of its combat forces. (The fact that the United States already possesses far more capable weaponry than any of its rivals and outspends them by a significant margin when it comes to the acquisition of additional munitions doesn’t seem to have any impact on Trump’s calculations.)

    This outlook would be embedded in his administration’s National Security Strategy, released last December. The greatest threat to American security, it claimed, wasn’t ISIS or al-Qaeda, but Russian and Chinese efforts to bolster their military power and extend their geopolitical reach. But given the administration’s new approach to global affairs, it suggested, there was no reason to believe that the country was headed for an inevitable superpower conflagration. (“Competition does not always mean hostility, nor does it inevitably lead to conflict. An America that successfully competes is the best way to prevent conflict.”)

    However ironic it might seem, this is, of course, the gist of the Sino-Russian tripolar model as embraced and embellished by Donald Trump. It envisions a world of constant military and economic contention among three regional power centers, generating crises of various sorts, but not outright war. It assumes that the leaders of those three centers will cooperate on matters affecting them all, such as terrorism, and negotiate as necessary to prevent minor skirmishes from erupting into major battles.

    Will this system prove more stable and durable than the crumbling unipolar world order it’s replacing? Who knows? If Russia, China, and the United States were of approximately equal strength, it might indeed theoretically prevent one party from launching a full-scale conflict with another, lest the aggrieved country join the third power, overwhelming the aggressor.

    Eerily enough, this reflects the future world as envisioned in George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984 — a world in which three great-power clusters, Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia, contend for global dominance, periodically forming new two-against-one alliances.

    However, as the United States currently possesses significantly greater military power than Russia and China combined, that equation doesn’t really apply and so, despite the mammoth nuclear arsenals of all three countries, the possibility of a U.S.-initiated war cannot be ruled out. In a system of ever-competing super-states, the risk of crisis and confrontation will always be present, along with the potential for nuclear escalation.

    One thing we can be reasonably sure of, however, regarding such a system is that smaller, weaker states, and minority peoples everywhere will be given even shorter shrift than at present when caught in any competitive jousting for influence among the three main competitors (and their proxies). This is the crucial lesson to be drawn from the grim fighting still ongoing in Syria and eastern Ukraine: you are only worth something as long as you do the bidding of your superpower patron.  When your utility is exhausted — or you’re unfortunate enough to be trapped in a zone of contention — your life is worth nothing. No lasting peace is attainable in such an environment and so, just as in Orwell’s 1984, war — or preparing for war — will be a perpetual condition of life.

  • Gold Shorts Explode; Specs Sell Vol, Bonds As "Winter In The Markets" Looms

    Before the shit really hit the fan this week as Techs wrecked and Yuan crashed, CFTC data (reported as of Tuesday close) showed speculators piling increasingly into the most-crowded trades as if nothing will ever change.

    The two most extreme positioning situations are in Gold and US Treasuries as there has never been more hedge fund shorts in the precious metal – and it is accelerating dramatically…

    And never been more aggregate speculative short positions across the Treasury complex in history…

    Specifically, 10Y Treasury shorts are exploding higher…

    Additionally, as China’s offshore Yuan collapses, traders are adding to their net long USDollar positions – but for now, the dollar refuses to follow their positioning…

    And finally, specs added further to their renewed belief in the old ‘sell vol’ trade being back…

    As if February never happened.

    Despite the fact that we are heading into the market’s most seasonally volatile time of year…

    All of this positioning occurred before things went a little pear-shaped in global markets towards the latter end of the week, and as Bloomberg notes, this year even more so as for many, unpredictable markets could mar dreams of a lazy summer at the beach. Event risk could derail plans as trade tensions linger and China’s sliding currency recalls August 2015’s devaluation. And lest you forget: President Donald Trump has a Twitter account.

    “It’s the winter in the markets — not the summer,” Louis Gargour, the chief investment officer of London-based LNG Capital, an alternative investment-management firm, said in an interview. He’s been reducing exposure to risk and increasing shorts in credit.

    “China’s a big story, the second-order effects of trade wars are a much bigger factor that could pressure global markets.”

    Additionally, Goldman has warned that depleted liquidity makes the market prone to crises.

    “You have a lot of geopolitical events that could happen this summer,” said Barbara Reinhard, head of asset allocation at the $227 billion AUM Voya Asset Management.

    “August ones are particularly alarming — that’s when volumes are thin and people are on vacation.”

    Risk-off sentiment could rapidly snowball alongside the specter of higher borrowing costs. Investors may struggle to offload positions, from corporate bonds to emerging-market assets, in the second-lowest equity volume month of the year, as Reinhard concluded:

    “Let’s put it this way, everyone taking a vacation: they can’t be without their devices.”

  • JPMorgan: QE Might Have Devastating Consequences After All

    Approximately 9 years after various “tin-foil” wearing blogs first warned that the long-run negative consequences of QE will drown out and vastly outnumber any positive ones (which have mostly been confined to make the rich richer and create the illusion of economic stability built on the cracking foundations of trillions in newly created dollars), none other than JPMorgan today admits that QE may, indeed, have some devastating financial, economic and political consequences. And by some, we mean a lot.

    What prompted this exciting moment of monetary introspection?

    According to JPM’s Nick Panigirtzoglou, it was last week’s report that the BoJ has expressed concerns over negative side effects of its QE current policies (especially keeping the 10Y yield fixed around 0%), and which resulted in a sharp, if brief, global bond steepening which demonstrated once  again just how dominant central bank monetization policies are in determining the long-end of the curve.

    And, as the market demonstrated, a hawkish policy shift and a subsequent reduction in duration absorption by the BoJ would intensify the quantitative tightening already in place by the Fed and the ECB, and according to JPM represents “a significant tail risk that has generated intense debate among our clients.”

    So what are these possible ‘devastating’ side-side effects from unorthodox BoJ – and other central bank – policies?

    Here is a list of the key negative consequences arising from QE, from JPMorgan:

    1. Results in Asset Bubbles and a Collapse in CapEx: Even as QE has likely exerted downward pressure on bond yields, the significant increase in central banks’ balance sheets makes an exit potentially more difficult, and raises the risk of a policy error or of an increase in perceptions about debt monetization. It potentially creates asset bubbles by lowering asset yields relative to historical norms, that an eventual return to normality could be accompanied by sharp price declines. Perceptions about asset bubbles can thus also increase long term uncertainty. In turn higher uncertainty might prevent economic agents such as businesses from spending, i.e. the collapse in CapEx observed over the past decade as company used cheap debt to purchase their own, making management teams richer.

    2. Creates Zombie Companies and Crushes Productivity. Low credit spreads and corporate bond yields are an intended consequence of QE but not without distortions. By allowing unproductive and inefficient companies to survive, helped by low debt servicing costs, QE could potentially hinder the creative destruction taking place during a normal economic cycle. In principle, QE could thus make economies less efficient or productive over time. Which should answer the long-running debate over the chronic lack of economic productivity in the new normal. The debate about so called “zombie” companies has been particularly intense in Japan given the low business turnover rate. According to OECD, Japan’s business startup and closure rate is about 5%, roughly a third of that in other advanced economies with several commentators blaming the BoJ’s ultra-accommodative policies for this problem.

    3. Low Rates crush savers, make the rich richer. One of the most visible impacts of QE has been the decline in discount rates, which in turn has created wealth effects via supporting asset prices. However, an argument could be made that these wealth effects are not evenly distributed, and that low discount rates mean savers suffer from an erosion of income.

    4. Exacerbates currency wars. QE could exacerbate so called “currency wars”. The value of the Japanese yen collapsed after Abenomics started in November 2012 and has stayed at historical lows since then helped by BoJ’s ultra accommodative monetary policy. This is shown in Figure 5 by the real trade weighted index of the Japanese yen. Japan’s main competitors across EM and DM have been feeling the pressure from this depreciation, though it is not clear that the depreciation necessarily means the yen is undervalued.

    5. NIRP hurts the economy, and chokes off credit supply. Beyond a certain threshold, negative interest rates can have unintended consequences such as lower bank profitability, higher bank lending rates, reduced credit creation to the real economy, impaired functioning of money markets and reduced liquidity in bond markets. And there is a good reason to believe that the threshold below which negative rates start having unintended consequences is higher in Japan than in Europe, not least because of the lower interest margins Japanese banks operate with… Deeply negative policy rates had taken their toll on Danish and Swiss banks’ net interest income (Figure 6). Net interest income as % of assets declined in 2015 for both Danish and Swiss banks following the introduction of very negative policy rates in these countries in January 2015.

    6. Chokes Repo markets due to collateral shortages. It is not only commercial banks that are hurt as a result of QE. Reduced liquidity in money and repo markets is another side effect. UST collateral shortages have hampered US repo markets. The BoJ and the ECB inflicted similar damage to European and Japanese repo markets as government collateral was withdrawn at an even stronger pace. An argument could be made that the damage to trading turnover and liquidity is likely to have been even bigger with the BoJ’s and ECB’s QE relative to the Fed’s QE, because the BoJ and the ECB went even further than the Fed by lowering its policy rate to negative territory. Negative yields can hamper trading volumes and liquidity as money market participants are less willing to trade at negative yields.

    7. Cripples pension funds by increasing funding deficits. Lower bond yields increase pension fund and insurance company deficits putting pressure on pension funds to match assets and liabilities. This pressure to move further away from equities and other high risk assets into fixed income is even stronger in countries like Japan where demographic pressures are more intense. For example, old age dependency ratios, i.e. the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over as a percentage of the population aged 15-64 years, have been rising steadily, with Japan aging more rapidly than the US or Europe (Figure 1). Generally, an aging population means that allocations are likely to shift towards relatively safer instruments as the ability to withstand larger drawdowns on capital diminishes as individuals age.

    What is striking in Japan is that in contrast to GPIF, which shifted towards equities post Abenomics most likely under political pressure, private Japanese pension funds did the opposite shifting even more towards bonds (Figure 3).

    8. QE Forces consumers to save even more. The yield-to-worst on the Bloomberg Global Agg Yen denominated bond index currently stands at close to 0.15%, around one-sixth of its average in the expansion preceding the financial crisis. In addition to the effect of deleveraging after the financial crisis and the Euro area sovereign crisis, QE has played a role in pushing down on long-term yields. Particularly the QE programs of the BoJ and ECB which have seen net issuance of government bonds outside of the public sector balance sheet turn negative, not just in their domestic economies but for the G4 on aggregate (Figure 4).

    These low yields in turn depress the income that investors receive from bonds, inducing them to save even more, in the process making a mockery of the key “widely accepted” economist axiom behind QE.

    9. The rise of populism and extreme political frictions. A longer-term tail risk created by QE is the potential for political frictions, which could escalate in the future especially once QE becomes a negative carry trade for
    central banks, i.e. when the interest on excess reserves starts rising above the yield they receive on their bond
    holdings.

    JPMorgan’s punchline:

    These political issues could become a big problem in Japan if in the future Abenomics, including BoJ’s ultra-accommodative policies, are perceived as a failed experiment that brought limited benefits to the Japanese economy and society.

    Now if readers expand what JPM said about the failure of QE in Japan, they may be reminded of the piece “An Orgy of Blood” by the UK’s Clarmond Wealth, whose conclusion we repost below because with every passing day, the world it previews gets closer:

    When historians look back and see the cavalier balance sheets of the central banks they would rightly assume there was a world war going on as every central bank balance sheet is now approaching or exceeding levels not seen since 1945. However, the worrying truth is that there are no external enemies to overcome; the central bankers are only maintaining the growth trajectory that we demand.   

    The age of sloganeers

    The current social contract is mired in the quicksand of global finance. It is being kept alive by the corpulent balance sheets of central banks, who do their government’s bidding so that the politicians do not have to put unpleasant choices in front of their electorates. This cowardly behaviour gives rise to slogans and sloganeers, who provide familiar but false checklists of remedies. “Take bank control”…”America First”…”One Belt, One Road”…”Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Fuhrer”…”One Man – One Kill”. Central banks are currently furnishing the excess credit that, in the past, has been followed by an orgy of blood.

  • Sweden Will Remain Sweden In Name Only

    Via GEFIRA,

    For some time now the Gefira Team has been keeping track of the demographic processes that are taking place in Europe, especially in its Western part. 

    This time Gefira published a report on Sweden, a well-developed, typical Western state, member of the European Union. The report includes independent calculations, using dedicated demographic software Cerberus 2.0. The report is based on the input that is taken from the official bureaus of statistics.

    The Gefira findings based on the official data provided by Statistics Sweden SCB reveal what follows:

    1. the fertility rate of native white Swedes is much lower (1.6) than the country’s overall fertility rate (1.9);

    2. the Swedish parental system fails to deliver more babies;

    3. the number of children with an Islamic name is growing at a fast pace. Since 2010 it has increased by more than 30%, so that now around 8 to 10% of the newborns in Sweden have an Islamic name.

    4. the native white Swedish population will be a minority within a maximum of 40 years. The same source shows that 22% of the newborns have a non-Western migration background.

    To compensate for the low birth rate the government is pursuing a systematic re-population policy. That it why it can be claimed that the Swedish community will grow in numbers at a moderate speed in the foreseeable future. The SCB statisticians cannot have come to this conclusion on the basis of the Swedish childbearing numbers nor on the global migration trends. The said growth remains and will be a result of importing highly fertile women from low and medium HDI (Human Development Index) countries.

    The future of the Swedish population is bleak. On the basis of official fertility and death rates Cerberus 2.0, software designed for demographic calculations, computed the number of births and deaths for each age group, starting in 1970. The number of white native Swedes grew until 1996 and from there it began to decline in a more or less straight line. In 2017 there were again 8 million people and by 2060 there will be 6.6 million Swedish people left. If the authorities are not able to turn the tide and increase the fertility rates of Swedish women, the population will decline to 5 million by the end of the century. While the calculations predict that there will be 8 million natives left now, the current official data show that there are even fewer Swedes with two parents born in Sweden.

    Due to the continuation of the influx of immigrants, the current population is 10 million. According to Statistics Sweden it will be 14 million by the end of this century. The Swedish authorities regard only first and second generation immigrants as foreigners. After one generation a sprawling Pakistani community relocated to Malmö will be regarded as natural Swedish growth.

    Another approach is to look at the difference between the computed population and the official numbers. If Cerberus 2.0 forecasts 7 million people in 2050 and Statistics Sweden expects 12 million, the difference is due to migrants, whether it is the first, second or fifth generation.

    The forecast made by the Swedish authorities is rather a blueprint or plan for the future than a prediction. Comparing the projection made by Cerberus 2.0 and those made by the state planners, the Gefira report expects the Swedish to be a minority by 2066 i.e. by the end of this century only one-third of the population will be of Swedish descent, which means almost a total re-population.

  • Housing Market Headed For "Broadest Slowdown In Years"

    For those who have been focusing on corporate earnings, the stock market and the global economy, a more ominous – if under-reported – flashpoint has emerged in recent days after some scary housing market numbers were published over the past week, or as Robert Shiller told Bloomberg, “This could be the very beginning of a turning point.” 

    The housing market is showing signs of a downward slide after existing-home sales were down in June, sales hit their slowest pace in eight months, and mortgage rates are on the rise, causing usually restive buyers to stay patiently on the the sidelines. 

    In reporting on the worrisome data released this week, Bloomberg notes that “the U.S. housing market — particularly in cutthroat areas like Seattle, Silicon Valley and Austin, Texas — appears to be headed for the broadest slowdown in years,” due to a trend of buyers “getting squeezed by rising mortgage rates and by prices climbing about twice as fast as incomes, and there’s only so far they can stretch.”

    Meanwhile, according to the latest Attom data, U.S. median home price appreciation decelerated in Q2 of 2018 to its slowest pace in two years. Here are some key indicators that we are indeed witnessing the start of a slowdown, published this week:

    • Existing-home sales dropped in June for a third straight month. Purchases of new homes are at their slowest pace in eight months.
    • Inventory, which plunged for years, has begun to grow again as buyers move to the sidelines, sapping the fuel for surging home values.
    • Prices for existing homes climbed 6.4 percent in May, the smallest year-over-year gain since early 2017, and have gained the least over three months since 2012, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    • Shares of PulteGroup Inc. fell as much as 4.9 percent Thursday morning after the national homebuilder reported that orders had declined 1 percent from a year earlier, blaming rising mortgage rates.

    It looks like home prices are plateauing as supply lines increase, according to Bloomberg:

    • Some of the most expensive markets, where sales are falling under the weight of prices, are now seeing substantial increases in supply, according to Redfin Corp.
    • In San Jose, California, inventory was up 12 percent in June from a year earlier. It rose 24 percent in Seattle and 32 percent in Portland, Oregon. Those big jumps are from low numbers, so the housing crunch is still a serious problem.
    • “Inventory has increased quite a bit,” a Seattle agent tells Bloomberg. “We’re seeing less competition.”
    • In its preliminary July survey, 65 percent of Americans said it’s a good time to buy a home, the lowest since 2008, when the economy was still in recession.

    And as the following chart of FHFA home prices, the recent home price plateau is starting to turn lower:

    This as international buyers are dropping out of the US housing market in growing numbers, according to new reports, underscoring the general buyer fatigue on the rise. 

    “The affordability crisis may have reached a breaking point in Portland, San Jose, and Seattle,” said Settle-based real estate brokerage company Redfin’s CEO.

    At the same time, the average homeownership tenure increases to new all-time high of 8.09 years: homeowners who sold in Q2 2018 had owned their homes for an average of 8.09 years, up from an average homeownership tenure of 7.91 years in Q1 2018 and up from an average homeownership tenure of 7.83 years in Q2 2017, according to Attom.

    “Buyers want to shop and take some time, as opposed to having to rush and throw offers in,” a real estate agent with Windermere Realty Trust in Portland told Bloomberg of trying to manage sellers’ expectations. “It’s the market correcting itself. At some point, you hit a peak of momentum, and then things level off.”

    And as supply grows, and buyers find more options to choose from, buyers are taking their time to pull the trigger:

    While we have previously compiled these numbers in separate posts, here is a summary take on the current state of the US housing market:

    • The homeownership rate in the second quarter was 64.3 percent, up from 63.7 percent a year earlier, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released Thursday.
    • S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data hint at the softening. The 20-city index of property values rose 6.6 percent in the 12 months ending in April. After seasonal adjustments, the gauge posted its smallest monthly increase in 10 months, with New York, San Francisco and Washington reporting declines.
    • Homeownership still remains out of reach for many Americans, especially for first-time and younger buyers. For existing homes, the median price climbed in June to a record $276,900, while properties typically stayed on the market for 26 days, unchanged from the prior three months, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    That said, there are still reasons to be optimistic that we are not at the start of a new housing crisis: per Bloomberg:

    “While there appears to be a slowdown in the growth rate of home sales and prices, it has not slowed rising homeownership,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said in a statement — though he added that the rate is a full percentage point below the 50-year average, reflecting “the long-lasting scars from the Great Recession and the lopsided nature of this recovery.”

    Market watchers note that the housing sector has strong support from a healthy labor market and steady economic growth, which indicates a stabilizing trend for home prices rather than anything close to the experience of the crisis, when property values plunged. And shares of D.R. Horton Inc., which builds a lot of starter homes, rose as high as 8.7 percent Thursday morning after the company reported a 12 percent jump in orders.

    Still, a red flag is that the experts are starting to spin the narrative, usually a key indicator that a major turning point is dead ahead: “The rate of home sales, new and existing, has probably peaked,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “But it’s not going to roll over. It will gently decline.” It was not clear why Shepherdson was confident of this.

    Others were less sanguine: “Home prices are plateauing,” said Ed Stansfield, chief property economist at Capital Economics. “People are saying: Let’s just bide our time, there’s no great rush. If we wait six or nine months we’re not going to lose out on getting a foot on the ladder… we’re now looking at a period in which prices move more or less sideways, or increase no more quickly than growth in incomes, over the next few years.”

    Which is a problem, because according to the latest Case Shiller data, home prices in all metro areas are increasing at a higher rate than incomes, and in 15 out of 20, the rate of price is more than double that of income growth.

    And let’s not forget the uber bubble that is San Francisco, where in just the past six months, median home prices increased by a record $200,000 to an all time high $1.62 million.

    Finally, there is the threat that the Fed will hike right into a recession, making mortgages unaffordable: “no one knows how far and how fast borrowing costs may rise as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates”, Stansfield said.

    This was confirmed by the latest UMichigan consumer sentiment survey, which revealed that Americans believe current conditions to buy a homes are the worst they have been since 2011 due to high interest rates.

    This also means that for most areas, we will not see a price surge just ahead of the next recession. Lenders and borrowers alike are less likely to let credit spiral out of control than in 2005 and 2006. And with financing tighter and wage gains in check, “there’s not much scope for prices to continue to increase sustainably” at recent rates.

    The rate-driven cooling, in turn, could curb housing starts, “because builders tend to only build what they think they can confidently sell,” Stansfield said, which he noted is a potential silver lining, as the slowdown in inventory creation “will decrease the risk of a bust.” Alternatively, it will also result in a broad slowdown in the economy as homebuilders hire less (or begin to fire) construction workers, while spending less on growth.

    So where does that leave us? We’ll let readers decide on their own where in Phase 2 of the housing market (shown below) the US is currently, with the reminder that nobody rings a bell at the top.

  • Trump Declares State Of Emergency As "Apocalyptic" Wildfire Devastates Northern California

    Update: The death toll has risen to five, as great-grandmother Mary Bledsoe and her great-grandchildren, James Roberts, 5, and Emily Roberts, 4, were killed as the Carr fire moved through Redding, CA on Saturday. The fire is currently 5% contained and has destroyed over 80,000 acres and 500 structures based on a revised counts.

    President Trump has declared a state of emergency in California after deadly wildfires have ripped through over 102,028 acres across the state this week, according to the governor’s Office of Emergency Services. 

    According to the White House, Trump has authorized FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) to assist California firefighters who are battling tinder-fueled infernos thanks to nearly half-a-decade of drought. 

    The worst of the blazes has devastated Shasta County, as the Carr Fire has claimed the lives of two first responders, forced thousands to evacuate and burned 48,312 acres – around half the total affected area across the state. The fire was 5% contained as of Friday night according to officials, while Fire Inspector Jeremy Stoke was killed along with a bulldozer operator as they battled the blaze.

    Photo: Kaz Weida

    Redding Chief of Police Roger Moore told the press that so many residents were fleeing the fire that they were creating “gridlock” on the city’s roads, as temperatures reached 110 degrees in some spots and created their own weather described by Can official as “a tornado over the fire.” 

    Fire was whipped up into a whirlwind of activity,” said California’s top fire official, Cal Fire Chief Ken Pimlott, adding that it was “uprooting trees, moving vehicles, moving parts of roadways.” Pimlott said that dry brush was to blame for the wildfires. 

    Shadrac Herrera of Redding, 34, said he witnessed the upheaval. “I saw a tornado of fire,” he said. “I could hear it whistling and sucking up air and at the same time it was growing. Incredibly scary.” –NBC News

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    On Thursday, Governor Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency for Shasta County while formally requesting federal emergency aid from the White House late Friday, according to NBC News.

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    “Evacuate, evacuate, evacuate,” he said. “Pay very close attention to social media, websites, local television and radio broadcasts.”

    So many fires had broken out across the Golden State that Pimlott said first responders were hoping to mount vicious initial attacks to keep them in check. “Our first priority always is the initial attack of new fires,” he said.

    Brig. Gen. Matthew Beevers of the California National Guard said 800 of his troops were either at the Carr Fire or were headed that way. The guard has also deployed multiple aircraft, including at least one military drone that is allowing firefighters to monitor the behavior of the blaze, he said. –NBC News

    Over 3,400 firefighters from as far away as San Diego have been battling the the Shasta County inferno, which was dealing with its own 240-acre brushfire on Friday near the town of Ramona. 

    Other fires across the state include the Ferguson fire in Mariposa which has burned 46,675 acres and is around 30% contained, and the 12,300 acre Cranston fire in Riverside county which Cal Fire reports as 17% contained. 

    While the Northern California Carr fire was reportedly sparked by the “mechanical failure of a vehicle,” a Temecula, CA man was charged on Friday with over a dozen felony accounts related to nine different fires in Riverside County, reports the Temecula Patch

    Brandon McGlover, 32, faces a potential life sentence if convicted as charged, the Riverside County District Attorney’s office said.

    McGlover is accused of setting nine separate fires on Wednesday, one of which exploded into the 11,500-acre Cranston Fire burning near Idyllwild. The fires were all allegedly set in the Idyllwild, Anza and Sage areas. –Temecula Patch

    Over 6,000 residents have evacuated due to the Cranston Fire, which threatens 5,000 structures and has already destroyed five homes. 

  • Orban Predicts "Illiberal" EU Christian Democracies As Open-Border Backlash Grows

    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has called for a united front between Europe’s “Illiberal” right-wing parties, and has predicted that Europe will shift toward a “Christian Democracy,” claiming that the “big goal” of EU leaders is to transform Europe into a “post-Christian era,” reports Reuters

    Unlike liberal democracy, he said, Christian democracy rejects multiculturalism and immigration while being anti-communist and standing for Christian values. –Reuters

    There’s a general shift toward the right in the whole of Europe,” Orban said in front of an ethnic Hungarian audience in Baile Tusnad, Romania, on Saturday, referring to various populist movements throughout Europe. “We must focus all our attention on the European elections of 2019. It’s high time the European elections were about one serious common theme, immigration.”

    Orban, a member of Hungary’s conservative nationalist and populist Fidesz party, has been a vocal critic of forced multiculturalism throughout Europe, along with perhaps its largest private supporter George Soros. 

    “Their big goal to transform Europe, to ship it into a post-Christian era, and into an era when nations disappear – this process could be undermined in the European elections. And it is our elementary interest to stop this transformation,” Orban said of EU nations which promote and accommodate open-border migration. 

    Orban also took shots at the Western political “elite,” accusing them of failing to protect European nations unchecked migration primarily from North African countries. 

    The Hungarian premier renewed his attack on the European Commission after similar remarks in a radio interview on Friday, where he dismissed the bloc’s executive as a lame duck. He said the commission’s concerns about Hungary’s migration and non-government organization policies will soon cease to be relevant as its mandate expires. –Bloomberg

    We are facing a big moment: we are saying goodbye not simply to liberal democracy … but to the 1968 elite,” said Orban, referring to an international wave of leftist, liberal protests which ended the ruling conservative order in several European countries. 

    On June 20, the Hungarian parliament passed a “STOP Soros” bill, which will criminalize certain types of aid given to illegal immigrants. 

    Officially dubbed the “STOP Soros” law, the proposal makes it illegal to help migrants not entitled to protection apply for asylum and prohibits helping illegal migrants to gain status to remain in Hungary. Under the law, individuals or groups that commit either act would be subject prison terms. –Daily Caller

    Orban loves Bannon

    Orban also welcomed the founding of an anti-EU group, “The Movement” which we noted on Saturday. Bannon plans to lead a populist revolt throughout Europe which, if successful, will crush George Soros and his network of open-border NGO’s to smithereens, according to the Daily Beast.

    The Movement will be a Brussels-based non-profit NGO which will go head to head with Soros – with the goal of uniting like-minded European parties and various conservative think tanks along with other support structures. 

    The non-profit will be a central source of polling, advice on messaging, data targeting, and think-tank research for a ragtag band of right-wingers who are surging all over Europe, in many cases without professional political structures or significant budgets.

    Bannon’s ambition is for his organization ultimately to rival the impact of Soros’s Open Society, which has given away $32 billion to largely liberal causes since it was established in 1984.

    Over the past year, Bannon has held talks with right-wing groups across the continent from Nigel Farage and members of Marine Le Pen’s Front National (recently renamed Rassemblement National) in the West, to Hungary’s Viktor Orban and the Polish populists in the East. –Daily Beast

    In other words, everyone who doesn’t like largely unchecked human trafficking of migrants into Europe via Soros-funded NGOs which operate throughout the Mediterranean. 

    Bannon is looking to establish a populist stronghold within European Parliament which could gain as many as a third of the lawmakers following next May’s Europe-wide elections. As the Beast points out, “A united populist bloc of that size would have the ability to seriously disrupt parliamentary proceedings, potentially granting Bannon huge power within the populist movement.”

    In June, Bannon met with Italy’s new interior minister Matteo Salvini and American Cardinal Raymond Burke – both of whom are staunchly opposed to the pope’s open border policies. The three met in Rome while Bannon was visiting to celebrate Italy’s new populist coalition government run by Salvini, Five Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio and Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.

    In short, Hungary’s Orban has declared the tide officially turned towards populism – while supporting Steve Bannon’s plan to unite conservative Europeans under the umbrella of The Movement.

  • Mapping The US States Where It's Legal To Smoke Marijuana

    At the beginning of July, Vermont became the ninth U.S. state to legalize recreational marijuana and adults are permitted to possess up to 1 ounce of the drug as well as two mature and four immature plants.

    As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes,  Vermont joins other states including California, Massachusetts, Maine, and Nevada where votes were passed to green light recreational marijuana in late 2016.

    Infographic: The States Where It's Legal To Smoke Marijuana | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    That doubled the number of states where lighting up was permitted with Colorado, Alaska, Washington and Oregon all previously legalizing the green stuff.

    In terms of consumption, California has a massive market for recreational marijuana, larger than Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Alaska combined.

  • Will Next Steps On Iran Point Towards A New "Big Three" Or World War III?

    Authored by James George Jatras via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    On July 22 US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a bizarre speech on Iran. Delivered from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, and ostensibly addressed to the Iranian-American community, the speech’s staging clearly sought to evoke the fall of communism, casting the Ayatollahs in the role of Leonid Brezhnev and company.

    Iranian “regime change” is not the publicly stated goal of the Trump Administration’s policy. But it is hard to see how US demands on Tehran don’t amount to exactly that, with Pompeo comparing the Iranian “regime” (a term used dozens of times to imply illegitimacy) to a “mafia.” He asserted that Iran’s behavior is “at root in the revolutionary nature of the regime itself.” What can change its “root” or “nature” without ceasing to be itself?

    Pompeo demanded not just a total change in policy from Tehran but a different mode of governance amounting to Iran’s ceasing to be an independent regional power. The Reagan venue’s analogy to the collapse of communism in the USSR and Eastern Europe echoed in the Secretary’s heavy emphasis on “a new 24/7 Farsi-language TV channel” spanning “not only television, but radio, digital, and social media format, so that the ordinary Iranians inside of Iran and around the globe can know that America stands with them.”

    The US position on Iran is that it is solely a question of removing a layer of malign governance, after which democracy, tolerance, peace, and general niceness will spontaneously break forth, and justice will roll down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream. Just like happened in Iraq after 2003. Just like in Libya.

    Never mind that Iran isn’t North America or Europe. Never mind that American and European ideas of social and personal liberty would be anathema to an unknown but significant percentage of Iran’s population. Never mind that the replacement for the Ayatollahs envisioned by many Administration big shots, the cultish People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (Mojahedin-e Khalq, MEK), may not be particularly democratic or popular with Iranians. Don’t bother us with details – the neo-Bolshevik myth of a spontaneous uprising by the oppressed masses (with a little help from outside, like the Kaiser’s generals were kind enough to provide Lenin) is alive and well in Washington.

    One is reminded of “true believer” Condoleezza Rice in 2006 denouncing as – you guessed it! – racist any objections to militant democracy promotion in the Middle East, specifically in Iraq:

    ‘“Well, growing up in the South and having people underestimate you because one of the reasons for segregation, one of the reasons for the separation of the races was supposedly, the inferiority of one race to the other,” she explains. “And so when I look around the world and I hear people say, ‘Well, you know, they’re just not ready for democracy,’ it really does resonate. I hear echoes of, well, you know, blacks are kind of childlike. They really can’t handle the vote. Or they really can’t take care of themselves. It really does roil me. It makes me so angry because I think there are those echoes of what people once thought about black Americans.”’

    Pompeo heavily emphasized Iran’s internal problems, such as political repression, corruption, economic distress, many of which are no doubt are quite real. Still, it was hard to listen to the Secretary without mentally comparing how the identical litany of abuses would apply to Washington’s perennial darling of the Islamic world, Saudi Arabia, which in every particular is far, far worse than Iran. But nobody is talking about what amounts to regime change in Riyadh or even any sanctions against them. Accusations of Iranian state support for terrorism would be risible if arming myriad Sunni jihadist groups by the US and our various partners, the Saudis chief among them, were a laughing matter.

    Pompeo’s speech triggered a rebuke by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani that “peace with Iran is the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is the mother of all wars” – an unfortunate choice of words given how Saddam Hussein’s “mother of all battles” turned out. Trump immediately shot back with a tweet threatening that Iran could “SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE.” Predictably, Trump’s ubiquitous critics focused as much on the all capital letters as on the substance of the exchange.

    No one knows where any of this is leading. The memory immediately triggered was that of harsh verbal exchanges between North Korea’s “Little Rocket man” Kim Jong-un and the “mentally deranged US dotard” Trump prior to their love fest in Singapore. Justin Raimondo of Antiwar.com was succinct in his optimism: “This means he’ll be scheduling a Rouhani summit in a few months.”

    On the other hand, instead of Singapore 2018 we could be seeing a repeat of the lead-up to Iraq 2003. So many of the same people who were beating the drums for the war with Iraq under President George W. Bush are playing the same tune now with respect to Iran. It is significant that whereas with respect to North Korea our foremost regional partner, South Korea, is pushing hardest for a peaceful outcome, Israel and Saudi Arabia, the two foreign states that exercise almost total control over the political class in Washington, are itching for the US to take care of their Iran problem for them. The hare-brained “Arab NATO” idea has been revived.

    Defense Secretary James “Mad Dog” Mattis has denied a report that the US was identifying targets in Iran to be struck as early as next month and disowned regime change. For what it is worth (probably not much) a recent poll shows that Americans are against war with Iran by a better than two-to-one margin. But, as Raimondo observes,

    “there are plenty of warmongers in Washington who just can’t wait for the shooting to start in the Middle East again, and they have targeted Iran as their next victim. … [S]uch a war would destroy Trump’s presidency precisely because his base would oppose it. And yet, … despite the fact that the President’s advisors are pushing war with Iran, Trump routinely ignores them and does exactly as he pleases: that’s why we had the Singapore summit and the Helsinki meeting with Putin.”

    We can hope that Trump will decide on his next steps with regard to Iran based on much broader international considerations that impact his domestic goals. Taken most optimistically, that could mean a concept that some of us have been suggesting for almost two years: a new “Big Three” understanding among Trump, Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Indeed, Professor Michael T. Klare, writing in TomDispatch.com, claims this is Trump’s conscious intention:

    ‘An examination of his campaign speeches and his actions since entering the Oval Office — including his appearance with Putin — reflect his adherence to a core strategic concept: the urge to establish a tripolar world order, one that was, curiously enough, first envisioned by Russian and Chinese leaders in 1997 and one that they have relentlessly pursued ever since.

    ‘Such a tripolar order — in which Russia, China, and the U.S. would each assume responsibility for maintaining stability within their own respective spheres of influence while cooperating to resolve disputes wherever those spheres overlap — breaks radically with the end-of-the-Cold-War paradigm. During those heady years, the United States was the dominant world power and lorded it over most of the rest of the planet with the aid of its loyal NATO allies.

    ‘For Russian and Chinese leaders, such a “unipolar” system was considered anathema. After all, it granted the United States a hegemonic role in world affairs while denying them what they considered their rightful place as America’s equals. Not surprisingly, destroying such a system and replacing it with a tripolar one has been their strategic objective since the late 1990s — and now an American president has zealously embraced that disruptive project as his own. [ . . . ]

    ‘The big question in all this, of course, is: Why? Why would an American president seek to demolish a global order in which the United States was the dominant player and enjoyed the support of so many loyal and wealthy allies? Why would he want to replace it with one in which it would be but one of three regional heavyweights? [ . . . ]

    ‘In the Trumpian mindset, this country had become weak and overextended because of its uncritical adherence to the governing precepts of the liberal international order, which called for the U.S. to assume the task of policing the world while granting its allies economic and trade advantages in return for their loyalty. Such an assessment, whether accurate or not, certainly jibes well with the narrative of victimization that so transfixed his core constituency in rustbelt areas of Middle America. It also suggests that an inherited burden could now be discarded, allowing for the emergence of a less-encumbered, stronger America — much as a stronger Russia has emerged in this century from the wreckage of the Soviet Union and a stronger China from the wreckage of Maoism. This reinvigorated country would still, of course, have to compete with those other two powers, but from a far stronger position, being able to devote all its resources to economic growth and self-protection without the obligation of defending half of the rest of the world.

    ‘Listen to Trump’s speeches, read through his interviews, and you’ll find just this proposition lurking behind virtually everything he has to say on foreign policy and national security. “You know… there is going to be a point at which we just can’t do this anymore,” he told Haberman and Sanger in 2016, speaking of America’s commitments to allies. “You know, when we did those deals, we were a rich country… We were a rich country with a very strong military and tremendous capability in so many ways. We’re not anymore.”

    ‘The only acceptable response, he made clear, was to jettison such overseas commitments and focus instead on “restoring” the country’s self-defense capabilities through a massive buildup of its combat forces. (The fact that the United States already possesses far more capable weaponry than any of its rivals and outspends them by a significant margin when it comes to the acquisition of additional munitions doesn’t seem to have any impact on Trump’s calculations.)’

    If such is indeed Trump’s calculation, his likelihood of attacking Iran is very low.

    Conversely, the forces benefitting from the status quo Trump would dismantle cannot be expected to accept such a future with equanimity: the Pentagon and NATO military establishments, the intelligence community, the hordes of contractors and think tank denizens, and others. Perhaps even worse, Trump’s domestic critics face the terrifying prospect that he could emerge as the greatest peacemaker in modern history, as well as restorer of America’s economic might.

    We can thus expect an added zeal born of desperation from former “CIA director John Brennan, FBI director James Comey, Robert Mueller, James Clapper, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, and the Democratic National Committee,” who, Paul Craig Roberts aptly says, are “engaged in high treason against the American people and the President of the United States and are actively engaged in a plot to overthrow the President of the United States.” Just in recent weeks the intensity of this campaign prevented Trump from agreeing to anything of substance with Putin in Helsinki, forced him to tap-dance around what he did or didn’t say at the post-summit press conference, and postpone according to Grand Inquisitor Mueller’s convenience a follow-up US-Russia summit (no doubt to the delight of his own appointees no less than to his enemies’).

    We can expect that between now the November 2018 Congressional elections Mueller will come out with several indictments against Trump associates with the hope of tipping the House of Representatives to the Democrats. If that happens, despite an anticipated GOP retention of the Senate, Trump will be removed or forced to resign in 2019, with a substantial percentage of Republicans ready to jump at the prospect of putting Mike Pence into the Oval Office, with current UN Ambassador Nikki Haley a virtual shoo-in as Vice President.

    Such a development would prompt an anguished but futile outburst from Trump’s base. But with l’ancien régime back in power, the guardians of the neoliberal, unipolar order the interloper had imperiled will move quickly to repudiate any understandings he might have had with Moscow and Beijing. The slide toward a catastrophe of literally unimaginable proportions, which Trump had sought to arrest, will become for all intents and purposes irreversible.

    At that point Iran will be the least of our worries.

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Today’s News 28th July 2018

  • Watch Ocasio-Cortez Flub Her Way Through Simple Question On Democratic Socialism

    The “new face” of the Democratic party, 28-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, botched yet another simple question about her political views that sheer spunk and tenacity couldn’t overcome. 

    During an appearance on last night’s Daily Show, host Trevor Noah pitched Ocasio-Cortez perhaps the slowest softball he could – asking her to explain how she’s planning on paying for her “Medicare for All” agenda along with her other ideas on funding Democratic Socialism, reports the Daily Caller

    “This is an excellent question,” she replied – the standard response to buy time while one’s brain clicks away at various options. 

    Unfortunately, the rest of her answer did not compute: 

    “I sat down with a Nobel Prize economist last week — I can’t believe I can say that, it’s really weird — But one of the things that we saw is, if people pay their fair share, if corporations and the ultra wealthy — for example, as Warren Buffett likes to say, if he pays as much as his secretary paid, 15 percent tax rate, if corporations paid — if we reverse the tax bill, raised our corporate tax rate to 28 percent … if we do those two things and also close some of those loopholes, that’s $2 trillion right there.”

    She also said it would take $3 trillion to $4 trillion and a carbon tax to create a “renewable energy economy” and claimed the Trump tax cut bill prevents the wealthiest Americans from paying “their fair share.”

    “One of the wide estimates is that it’s going to take $3 trillion to $4 trillion to transition us to 100 percent renewable economy,” she continued. Daily Caller

    So we’ve got $2 trillion from folks paying their fair share, which they weren’t paying before the Trump tax bill,” she said. “They weren’t paying that before the Trump tax bill. If we get people to pay their fair share, that’s $2 trillion in 10 years. Now if we implement a carbon tax on top of that, so that we can transition and financially incentivize people away from fossil fuels, if we implement a carbon tax — that’s an additional amount, a large amount of revenue that we can have.

    Ocasio-Cortez also said that she would “re-prioritize” military spending, shooting off the completely false claim that “Just last year we gave the military a $700 billion budget increase, which they didn’t even ask for.” “They’re like, ‘We don’t want another fighter jet!’ They’re like, ‘Don’t give us another nuclear bomb,’ you know?”

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    No wonder James Comey and the rest of the establishment left is absolutely freaking out over the “rising star.”

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  • American Society Would Collapse If It Weren't For These 8 Myths

    Authored by Lee Camp via TruthDig.com,

    Our society should’ve collapsed by now. You know that, right?

    No society should function with this level of inequality (with the possible exception of one of those prison planets in a “Star Wars” movie). Sixty-three percent of Americans can’t afford a $500 emergency. Yet Amazon head Jeff Bezos is now worth a record $141 billion. He could literally end world hunger for multiple years and still have more money left over than he could ever spend on himself.

    Worldwide, one in 10 people only make $2 a day. Do you know how long it would take one of those people to make the same amount as Jeff Bezos has? 193 million years. (If they only buy single-ply toilet paper.) Put simply, you cannot comprehend the level of inequality in our current world or even just our nation.

    So … shouldn’t there be riots in the streets every day? Shouldn’t it all be collapsing? Look outside. The streets aren’t on fire. No one is running naked and screaming (usually). Does it look like everyone’s going to work at gunpoint? No. We’re all choosing to continue on like this.

    Why?

    Well, it comes down to the myths we’ve been sold. Myths that are ingrained in our social programming from birth, deeply entrenched, like an impacted wisdom tooth. These myths are accepted and basically never questioned.

    I’m going to cover eight of them. There are more than eight. There are probably hundreds. But I’m going to cover eight because (A) no one reads a column titled “Hundreds of Myths of American Society,” (B) these are the most important ones and (C) we all have other shit to do.

    Myth No. 8—We have a democracy.

    If you think we still have a democracy or a democratic republic, ask yourself this: When was the last time Congress did something that the people of America supported that did not align with corporate interests? … You probably can’t do it. It’s like trying to think of something that rhymes with “orange.” You feel like an answer exists but then slowly realize it doesn’t. Even the Carter Center and former President Jimmy Carter believe that America has been transformed into an oligarchy: A small, corrupt elite control the country with almost no input from the people. The rulers need the myth that we’re a democracy to give us the illusion of control.

    Myth No. 7—We have an accountable and legitimate voting system.

    Gerrymandering, voter purging, data mining, broken exit polling, push polling, superdelegates, electoral votes, black-box machines, voter ID suppression, provisional ballots, super PACs, dark money, third parties banished from the debates and two corporate parties that stand for the same goddamn pile of fetid crap!

    What part of this sounds like a legitimate election system?

    No, we have what a large Harvard study called the worst election system in the Western world. Have you ever seen where a parent has a toddler in a car seat, and the toddler has a tiny, brightly colored toy steering wheel so he can feel like he’s driving the car? That’s what our election system is—a toy steering wheel. Not connected to anything. We all sit here like infants, excitedly shouting, “I’m steeeeering!”

    And I know it’s counterintuitive, but that’s why you have to vote. We have to vote in such numbers that we beat out what’s stolen through our ridiculous rigged system.

    Myth No. 6—We have an independent media that keeps the rulers accountable.

    Our media outlets are funded by weapons contractors, big pharma, big banks, big oil and big, fat hard-on pills. (Sorry to go hard on hard-on pills, but we can’t get anything resembling hard news because it’s funded by dicks.) The corporate media’s jobs are to rally for war, cheer for Wall Street and froth at the mouth for consumerism. It’s their mission to actually fortify belief in the myths I’m telling you about right now. Anybody who steps outside that paradigm is treated like they’re standing on a playground wearing nothing but a trench coat.

    Myth No. 5—We have an independent judiciary.

    The criminal justice system has become a weapon wielded by the corporate state. This is how bankers can foreclose on millions of homes illegally and see no jail time, but activists often serve jail time for nonviolent civil disobedience. Chris Hedges recently noted, “The most basic constitutional rights … have been erased for many. … Our judicial system, as Ralph Nader has pointed out, has legalized secret law, secret courts, secret evidence, secret budgets and secret prisons in the name of national security.”

    If you’re not part of the monied class, you’re pressured into releasing what few rights you have left. According to The New York Times, “97 percent of federal cases and 94 percent of state cases end in plea bargains, with defendants pleading guilty in exchange for a lesser sentence.”

    That’s the name of the game. Pressure people of color and poor people to just take the plea deal because they don’t have a million dollars to spend on a lawyer. (At least not one who doesn’t advertise on beer coasters.)

    Myth No. 4—The police are here to protect you. They’re your friends.

    That’s funny. I don’t recall my friend pressuring me into sex to get out of a speeding ticket. (Which is essentially still legal in 32 states.)

    The police in our country are primarily designed to do two things: protect the property of the rich and perpetrate the completely immoral war on drugs—which by definition is a war on our own people.

    We lock up more people than any other country on earth. Meaning the land of the free is the largest prison state in the world. So all these droopy-faced politicians and rabid-talking heads telling you how awful China is on human rights or Iran or North Korea—none of them match the numbers of people locked up right here under Lady Liberty’s skirt.

    Myth No. 3—Buying will make you happy.

    This myth is put forward mainly by the floods of advertising we take in but also by our social engineering. Most of us feel a tenacious emptiness, an alienation deep down behind our surface emotions (for a while I thought it was gas). That uneasiness is because most of us are flushing away our lives at jobs we hate before going home to seclusion boxes called houses or apartments. We then flip on the TV to watch reality shows about people who have it worse than we do (which we all find hilarious).

    If we’re lucky, we’ll make enough money during the week to afford enough beer on the weekend to help it all make sense. (I find it takes at least four beers for everything to add up.) But that doesn’t truly bring us fulfillment. So what now? Well, the ads say buying will do it. Try to smother the depression and desperation under a blanket of flat-screen TVs, purses and Jet Skis. Nowdoes your life have meaning? No? Well, maybe you have to drive that Jet Ski a little faster! Crank it up until your bathing suit flies off and you’ll feel alive!

    The dark truth is that we have to believe the myth that consuming is the answer or else we won’t keep running around the wheel. And if we aren’t running around the wheel, then we start thinking, start asking questions. Those questions are not good for the ruling elite, who enjoy a society based on the daily exploitation of 99 percent of us.

    Myth No. 2—If you work hard, things will get better.

    According to Deloitte’s Shift Index survey: “80% of people are dissatisfied with their jobs” and “[t]he average person spends 90,000 hours at work over their lifetime.” That’s about one-seventh of your life—and most of it is during your most productive years.

    Ask yourself what we’re working for. To make money? For what? Almost none of us are doing jobs for survival anymore. Once upon a time, jobs boiled down to:

    I plant the food—>I eat the food—>If I don’t plant food = I die.

    But nowadays, if you work at a café—will someone die if they don’t get their super-caf-mocha-frap-almond-piss-latte? I kinda doubt they’ll keel over from a blueberry scone deficiency.

    If you work at Macy’s, will customers perish if they don’t get those boxer briefs with the sweat-absorbent-ass fabric? I doubt it. And if they do die from that, then their problems were far greater than you could’ve known. So that means we’re all working to make other people rich because we have a society in which we have to work. Technological advancements can do most everything that truly must get done.

    So if we wanted to, we could get rid of most work and have tens of thousands of more hours to enjoy our lives. But we’re not doing that at all. And no one’s allowed to ask these questions—not on your mainstream airwaves at least. Even a half-step like universal basic income is barely discussed because it doesn’t compute with our cultural programming.

    Scientists say it’s quite possible artificial intelligence will take away all human jobs in 120 years. I think they know that will happen because bots will take the jobs and then realize that 80 percent of them don’t need to be done! The bots will take over and then say, “Stop it. … Stop spending a seventh of your life folding shirts at Banana Republic.”

    One day, we will build monuments to the bot that told us to enjoy our lives and … leave the shirts wrinkly.

    And this leads me to the largest myth of our American society.

    Myth No. 1—You are free.

    And I’m not talking about the millions locked up in our prisons. I’m talking about you and me. If you think you’re free, try running around with your nipples out, ladies. Guys, take a dump on the street and see how free you are.

    I understand there are certain restrictions on freedom we actually desire to have in our society—maybe you’re not crazy about everyone leaving a Stanley Steamer in the middle of your walk to work. But a lot of our lack of freedom is not something you would vote for if given the chance.

    Try building a fire in a parking lot to keep warm in the winter.

    Try sleeping in your car for more than a few hours without being harassed by police.

    Try maintaining your privacy for a week without a single email, web search or location data set collected by the NSA and the telecoms.

    Try signing up for the military because you need college money and then one day just walking off the base, going, “Yeah, I was bored. Thought I would just not do this anymore.”

    Try explaining to Kentucky Fried Chicken that while you don’t have the green pieces of paper they want in exchange for the mashed potatoes, you do have some pictures you’ve drawn on a napkin to give them instead.

    Try running for president as a third-party candidate. (Jill Stein was shackled and chained to a chair by police during one of the debates.)

    Try using the restroom at Starbucks without buying something … while black.

    We are less free than a dog on a leash. We live in one of the hardest-working, most unequal societies on the planet with more billionaires than ever.

    Meanwhile, Americans supply 94 percent of the paid blood used worldwide. And it’s almost exclusively coming from very poor people. This abusive vampire system is literally sucking the blood from the poor. Does that sound like a free decision they made? Or does that sound like something people do after immense economic force crushes down around them? (One could argue that sperm donation takes a little less convincing.)

    Point is, in order to enforce this illogical, immoral system, the corrupt rulers—most of the time—don’t need guns and tear gas to keep the exploitation mechanisms humming along. All they need are some good, solid bullshit myths for us all to buy into, hook, line and sinker. Some fairy tales for adults.

    It’s time to wake up.

  • Paul Craig Roberts Exposes The All-Pervasive Military-Security Complex

    Via PaulCraigRoberts.org,

    The article below by Professor Joan Roelofs appeared in the print edition of CounterPunch Vol. 25, No. 3.

    The article is long but very important and is worth a careful read. It shows that the military/security complex has woven itself so tightly into the American social, economic, and political fabric as to be untouchable. President Trump is an extremely brave or foolhardy person to take on this most powerful and pervasive of all US institutions by trying to normalize US relations with Russia, chosen by the military/security complex as the “enemy” that justifies its enormous budget and power.

    In 1961 President Eisenhower in his last public address to the American people warned us about the danger to democracy and accountable government presented by the military/industrial complex.

    You can imagine how much stronger the complex is 57 years later after decades of Cold War with the Soviet Union.

    The Russian government, Russian media, and Russian people desperately need to comprehend how powerful the US military/security complex is and how it is woven into the fabric of America. No amount of diplomacy by Lavrov and masterful chess playing by Putin can possibly shake the control over the United States exercised by the military/security complex.

    Professor Roelofs has done a good deed for the American people and for the world in assembling such extensive information documenting the penetration into every aspect of American life of the military/security complex. It is a delusion that a mere President of the United States can bring such a powerful, all-pervasive institution to heel and deprive it of its necessary enemy.

    The Political Economy of the Weapons Industry

    Guess Who’s Sleeping With Our Insecurity Blanket?

    By Joan Roelofs

    For many people the “military-industrial-complex (MIC)” brings to mind the top twenty weapons manufacturers. President Dwight Eisenhower, who warned about it in 1961, wanted to call it the military- industrial-congressional-complex, but decided it was not prudent to do so. Today it might well be called the military-industrial-congressional-almost-everything-complex. Most departments and levels of government, businesses, and also many charities, social service, environmental, and cultural organizations, are deeply embedded with the military.

    The weapons industry may be spearheading the military budget and military operations; it is aided immensely by the cheering or silence of citizens and their representatives. Here we will provide some likely reasons for that assent. We will use the common typology of three national sectors: government, business, and nonprofit, with varying amounts of interaction among them. This does not preclude, though it masks somewhat, the proposition that government is the executive of the ruling class.

    Every kind of business figures in the Department of Defense (DoD) budget. Lockheed is currently the largest contractor in the weapons business. It connects with the worldwide MIC by sourcing parts, for example, for the F-35 fighter plane, from many countries. This helps a lot to market the weapon, despite its low opinion among military experts as well as anti-military critics. Lockheed also does civilian work, which enhances its aura while it spreads its values.

    Other types of businesses have enormous multi-year contracts—in the billions. This despite the constitutional proviso that Congress not appropriate military funds for more than a two year term. Notable are the construction companies, such as Fluor, KBR, Bechtel, and Hensel Phelps. These build huge bases, often with high tech surveillance or operational capacity, in the US and abroad, where they hire locals or commonly, third country nationals to carry out the work. There are also billion-funded contractors in communications technology, intelligence analysis, transportation, logistics, food, and clothing. “Contracting out” is our modern military way; this also spreads its influence far and wide.

    Medium, small, and tiny businesses dangle from the “Christmas tree” of the Pentagon, promoting popular cheering or silence on the military budget. These include special set-asides for minority-owned and small businesses. A Black-owned small business, KEPA-TCI (construction), received contracts for $356 million. [Data comes from several sources, available free on the internet: websites, tax forms, and annual reports of organizations; usaspending.gov (USA) and governmentcontractswon.com (GCW).] Major corporations of all types serving our services have been excellently described in Nick Turse’s The Complex. Really small and tiny businesses are drawn into the system: landscapers, dry cleaners, child care centers, and Come- Bye Goose Control of Maryland.

    Among the businesses with large DoD contracts are book publishers: McGraw-Hill, Greenwood, Scholastic, Pearson, Houghton Mifflin, Harcourt, Elsevier, and others. Rarely have the biases in this industry, in fiction, nonfiction, and textbook offerings, been examined. Yet the influences on this small but significant population, the reading public, and the larger schooled contingent, may help explain the silence of the literate crowd and college graduates.

    Much of what is left of organized industrial labor is in weapons manufacture. Its PACs fund the few “progressive” candidates in our political system, who tend to be silent about war and the threat of nuclear annihilation. Unlike other factories, the armaments makers do not suddenly move overseas, although they do use subcontractors worldwide.

    Military spending may be only about 6% of the GDP, yet it has great impact because:

    1. it is a growing sector;

    2. it is recession-proof;

    3. it does not rely on consumer whims;

    4. it is the only thing prospering in many areas; and

    5. the “multiplier” effect: subcontracting, corporate purchasing, and employee spending perk up the regional economy.

    It is ideally suited to Keynesian remedies, because of its ready destruction and obsolescence: what isn’t consumed in warfare, rusted out, or donated to our friends still needs to be replaced by the slightly more lethal thing. Many of our science graduates work for the military directly or its contractee labs concocting these.

    The military’s unbeatable weapon is jobs, and all members of Congress, and state and local officials, are aware of this. It is where well-paying jobs are found for mechanics, scientists, and engineers; even janitorial workers do well in these taxpayer-rich firms. Weaponry is also important in our manufactured goods exports as our allies are required to have equipment that meets our specifications. Governments, rebels, terrorists, pirates, and gangsters all fancy our high tech and low tech lethal devices.

    Our military economy also yields a high return on investments. These benefit not only corporate executives and other rich, but many middle and working class folk, as well as churches, benevolent, and cultural organizations. The lucrative mutual funds offered by Vanguard, Fidelity, and others are heavily invested in the weapons manufacturers.

    Individual investors may not know what is in their fund’s portfolios; the institutions usually know. A current project of World Beyond War (https://worldbeyondwar.org/divest) advocates divestment of military stocks in the pension funds of state and local government workers: police, firepersons, teachers, and other civil servants. Researchers are making a state-by-state analysis of these funds. Among the findings are the extensive military stock holdings of CALpers, the California Public Employees Retirement System (the sixth largest pension fund on earth), the California State Teachers Retirement System, the New York State Teachers Retirement System, the New York City Employees Retirement System, and the New York State Common Retirement Fund (state and local employees). Amazing! the New York City teachers were once the proud parents of red diaper babies.

    The governmental side of the MIC complex goes far beyond the DoD. In the executive branch, Departments of State, Homeland Security, Energy, Veterans Affairs, Interior; and CIA, AID, FBI, NASA, and other agencies; are permeated with military projects and goals. Even the Department of Agriculture has a joint program with the DoD to “restore” Afghanistan by creating a dairy cattle industry. No matter that the cattle and their feed must be imported, cattle cannot graze in the terrain as the native sheep and goats can, there is no adequate transportation or refrigeration, and the Afghans don’t normally drink milk. The native animals provide yogurt, butter, and wool, and graze on the rugged slopes, but that is all so un-American.

    Congress is a firm ally of the military. Campaign contributions from contractor PACs are generous, and lobbying is extensive. So also are the outlays of financial institutions, which are heavily invested in the MIC. Congresspeople have significant shares of weapons industry stocks. To clinch the deal, members of Congress (and also state and local lawmakers) are well aware of the economic importance of military con- tracts in their states and districts.

    Military bases, inside the US as well as worldwide, are an economic hub for communities. The DoD Base Structure Report for Fy2015 lists more than 4,000 domestic properties. Some are bombing ranges or re- cruiting stations; perhaps 400 are bases with a major impact on their localities. The largest of these, Fort Bragg, NC, is a city unto itself, and a cultural influence as well as economic asset to its region, as so well described by Catherine Lutz in Homefront. California has about 40 bases (https://militarybases.com/by– state/), and is home to major weapons makers as well. Officers generally live off-base, so the real estate, restaurant, retail, auto repair, hotel and other businesses are prospering. Local civilians find employment on bases. Closed, unconvertible installations are sometimes tourist attractions, such as the unlikeliest of all vacation spots, the Hanford Nuclear Reservation.

    DoD has direct contracts and grants with state and local governments. These are for various projects and services, including large amounts to fund the National Guard. The Army Engineers maintain swimming holes and parks, and police forces get a deal on Bearcats. JROTC programs nationwide provide funding for public schools, and even more for those that are public school military academies; six are in Chicago.

    National, state and local governments are well covered by the “insecurity blanket;” the nonprofit sector is not neglected. Nevertheless, it does harbor the very small group of anti-war organizations, such as Iraq Veterans Against War, Veterans for Peace, World Beyond War, Peace Action, Union of Concerned Scientists, Center for International Policy, Catholic Worker, Answer Coalition, and others. Yet unlike the Vietnam War period there is no vocal group of religious leaders protesting war, and the few students who are politically active are more concerned with other issues.

    Nonprofit organizations and institutions are involved several ways. Some are obviously partners of the MIC: Boy and Girl Scouts, Red Cross, veterans’ charities, military think-tanks such as RAND and Institute for Defense Analysis, establishment think-tanks like the American Enterprise Institute, Atlantic Council, and the flagship of US world projection, the Council on Foreign Relations. There are also many international nongovernmental organizations that assist the US government in delivering “humanitarian” assistance, sing the praises of the market economy, or attempt to repair the “collateral” damage inflicted on lands and people, for example, Mercy Corps, Open Society Institutes, and CARE.

    Educational institutions in all sectors are embedded with the military. The military schools include the service academies, National Defense University, Army War College, Naval War College, Air Force Institute of Technology, Air University, Defense Acquisition University, Defense Language Institute, Naval Postgraduate School, Defense Information School, the medical school, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, and the notorious School of the Americas in Fort Benning, GA, now renamed the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation. “In addition, Senior Military Colleges offer a combination of higher education with military instruction. SMCs include Texas A&M University, Norwich University, The Virginia Military Institute, The Citadel, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), University of North Georgia and the Mary Baldwin Women’s Institute for Leadership” (https://www.usa.gov/military-colleges).

    A university doesn’t have to be special to be part of the MIC. Most are awash with contracts, ROTC programs, and/or military officers and contractors on their boards of trustees. A study of the 100 most militarized universities includes prestigious institutions, as well as diploma mills that produce employees for military intelligence agencies and contractors (https://news.vice.com/article/these-are-the-100– most-militarized-universities-in-america).

    Major liberal foundations have long engaged in covert and overt operations to support imperial projection, described by David Horowitz as the “Sinews of Empire” in his important 1969 Ramparts article. They have been close associates of the Central Intelligence Agency, and were active in its instigation. The foundation created and supported Council on Foreign Relations has long been a link among Wall Street, large corporations, academia, the media, and our foreign and military policymakers.

    Less obvious are the military connections of philanthropic, cultural, social service, environmental, and professional organizations. They are linked through donations; joint programs; sponsorship of events, exhibits, and concerts; awards (both ways); investments; boards of directors; top executives; and contracts. The data here covers approximately the last twenty years, and rounds out the reasons for the astounding support (according to the polls) that US citizens have conferred on our military, its budget, and its operations.

    Military contractor philanthropy was the subject of my previous CP reports, in 2006 and 2016. Every type of nonprofit (as well as public schools and universities) received support from the major weapons manufacturers; some findings were outstanding. Minority organizations were extremely well endowed. For many years there was crucial support for the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) from Lockheed; Boeing also funded the Congressional Black Caucus. The former president and CEO of the NAACP, Bruce Gordon, is now on the Board of Trustees of Northrop Grumman.

    General Electric is the most generous military contractor philanthropist, with direct grants to organizations and educational institutions, partnerships with both, and matching contributions made by its thousands of employees. The latter reaches many of the nongovernmental and educational entities throughout the country.

    Major donors to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (listed in its 2016 Annual Report) include the Defense Intelligence Agency, Cisco Systems, Open Society Foundations, US Department of Defense, General Electric, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and Lockheed Martin. This is an echo of the CEIP’s military connections reported in Horace Coon’s book of the 1930s, Money to Burn.

    The DoD itself donates surplus property to organizations; among those eligible are Big Brothers/Big Sisters, Boys and Girls Clubs, Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, Little League Baseball, and United Service Organizations. The Denton Program allows non-governmental organizations to use extra space on U.S. military cargo aircraft to transport humanitarian assistance materials.

    There is a multitude of joint programs and sponsorships. Here is a small sample…

    The American Association of University Women’s National Tech Savvy Program encourages girls to enter STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) careers, with sponsorship from Lockheed, BAE Systems, and Boeing.

    Junior Achievement, sponsored by Bechtel, United Technologies, and others, aims to train children in market-based economics and entrepreneurship.

    Wolf Trap Foundation for the Performing Arts is partnered with Northrop Grumman for an “early childhood STEM ‘Learning through the Arts’ initiative for pre-K and kindergarten students.”

    The Bechtel Foundation has two programs for a “sustainable California”— an education program to help “young people develop the knowledge, skills, and character to explore and understand the world,” and an environmental program to promote the “management, stewardship and conservation for the state’s natural resources.”

    The NAACP ACT-SO is a “yearlong enrichment program designed to recruit, stimulate, and encourage high academic and cultural achievement among African-American high school students,” with sponsorship from Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman et al. The national winners receive financial awards from major corporations, college scholarships, internships, and apprenticeships—in the military industries.

    In recent years the weapons makers have become enthusiastic environmentalists. Lockheed was a sponsor of the US Chamber of Commerce Foundation Sustainability Forum in 2013. Northrop Grumman supports Keep America Beautiful, National Public Lands Day, and a partnership with Conservation International and the Arbor Day Foundation (for forest restoration). United Technologies is the founding sponsor of the U.S. Green Building Council Center for Green Schools, and co-creator of the Sustainable Cities Design Academy. Tree Musketeers is a national youth environmental organization partnered by Northrop Grumman and Boeing.

    Awards go both ways: industries give awards to nonprofits, and nonprofits awards to military industries and people. United Technologies, for its efforts in response to climate change, was on Climate A list of the Climate Disclosure Project. The Corporate Responsibility Association gave Lockheed position 8 in 2016 in its 100 Best Corporate Citizens List. Points of Light included General Electric and Raytheon in its 2014 list of the 50 Most Community-Minded Companies in America. Harold Koh, the lawyer who as Obama’s advisor defended drone strikes and intervention in Libya, was recently given distinguished visiting professor status by Phi Beta Kappa. In 2017, the Hispanic Association on Corporate Responsibility recognized 34 Young Hispanic Corporate Achievers; 3 were executives in the weapons industry. Elizabeth Amato, an executive at United Technologies, received the YWCA Women Achievers Award.

    Despite laborious searching through tax form 990s, it is difficult to discover the specifics of organizations’ investments. Many have substantial ones; in 2006, the American Friends Service Committee had $3.5 million in revenue from investments. Human Rights Watch reported $3.5 million investment income on its 2015 tax form 990, and more than $107 million in endowment funds.

    One of the few surveys of nonprofit policies (by Commonfund in 2012) found that only 17% of foundations used environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria in their investments. ESG seems to have replaced “socially responsible investing (SRI)” in investment terminology, and it has a somewhat different slant. The most common restriction is the avoidance of companies doing business in regions with conflict risk; the next relates to climate change and carbon emissions; employee diversity is also an important consideration. Commonfund’s study of charities, social service and cultural organizations reported that 70% of their sample did not consider ESG in their investment policies. Although 61% of religious organizations did employ ESG criteria, only 16% of social service organizations and 3% of cultural organizations did.

    Weapon industries are hardly ever mentioned in these reports. Religious organizations sometimes still used the SRI investment screens, but the most common were alcohol, gambling, pornography, and tobacco. The Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility, a resource for churches, lists almost 30 issues for investment consideration, including executive compensation, climate change, and opioid crisis, but none concerning weapons or war. The United Church (UCC) advisory, a pioneer in SRI investment policies, does include a screen: only companies should be chosen which have less than 10% revenue from alcohol or gambling, 1% from tobacco, 10% from conventional weapons and 5% from nuclear weapons.

    The Art Institute of Chicago states on their website that “[W]ith the fiduciary responsibility to maximize returns on investment consistent with appropriate levels of risk, the Art Institute maintains a strong presumption against divesting for social, moral, or political reasons.” Listed as an associate is Honeywell International, and a major benefactor is the Crown Family (General Dynamics), which recently donated a $2 million endowment for a Professorship in Painting and Drawing.

    Nonprofit institutions (as well as individuals and pension funds of all sectors) have heavy investments in the funds of financial companies such as State Street, Vanguard, BlackRock, Fidelity, CREF, and others, which have portfolios rich in military industries (https://worldbeyondwar.org/wp– content/uploads/2016/11/indirect.pdf). These include information technology firms, which, although often regarded as “socially responsible,” are among the major DoD contractors.

    In recent years foundations and other large nonprofits, such as universities, have favored investments in hedge funds, real estate, derivatives, and private equity. The Carnegie Endowment, more “transparent” than most, lists such funds on its 2015 tax form 990 (Schedule D Part VII). It is unlikely that Lockheed, Boeing, et al, are among the distressed debt bonanzas, so these institutions may be low on weapons stock. Nevertheless, most of them have firm connections to the MIC through donations, leadership, and/or contracts.

    Close association with the military among nonprofit board members and executives works to keep the lid on anti-war activities and expression. The Aspen Institute is a think-tank that has resident experts, and also a policy of convening with activists, such as anti-poverty community leaders. Its Board of Trustees is chaired by James Crown, who is also a director of General Dynamics. Among other board members are Madeleine Albright, Condoleezza Rice, Javier Solana (former Secretary-General of NATO), and former Congresswoman Jane Harman. Harman “received the Defense Department Medal for Distinguished Service in 1998, the CIA Seal Medal in 2007, and the CIA Director’s Award and the National Intelligence Distinguished Public Service Medal in 2011. She is currently a member of the Director of National Intelligence’s Senior Advisory Group, the Trilateral Commission and the Council on Foreign Relations.” Lifetime Aspen Trustees include Lester Crown and Henry Kissinger.

    In recent years, the Carnegie Corporation board of trustees included Condoleezza Rice and General Lloyd Austin III (Ret.), Commander of CENTCOM, a leader in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and also a board member of United Technologies. A former president of Physicians for Peace (not the similarly named well-known group) is Rear Admiral Harold Bernsen, formerly Commander of the US Middle East Force and not a physician.

    TIAA, the college teachers’ retirement fund, had a CEO from 1993-2002, John H. Biggs, who was at the same time a director of Boeing. TIAA’s current board of directors includes an associate of a major military research firm, MITRE Corporations, and several members of the Council on Foreign Relations. Its senior executive Vice President, Rahul Merchant, is currently also a director at two information technology firms that have large military contracts: Juniper Networks and AASKI.

    The American Association of Retired Persons’ chief lobbyist from 2002-2007, Chris Hansen, had previously served in that capacity at Boeing. The current VP of communications at Northrop Grumman, Lisa Davis, held that position at AARP from 1996-2005.

    Board members and CEOs of the major weapons corporations serve on the boards of many nonprofits. Just to indicate the scope, these include the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, Newman’s Own Foundation, New York Public Library, Carnegie Hall Society, Conservation International, Wolf Trap Foundation, WGBH, Boy Scouts, Newport Festival Foundation, Toys for Tots, STEM organizations, Catalyst, the National Science Center, the US Institute of Peace, and many foundations and universities.

    The DoD promotes the employment of retired military officers as board members or CEOs of nonprofits, and several organizations and degree programs further this transition. U.S. Air Force Brigadier General Eden Murrie (Ret.) is now Director of Government Transformation and Agency Partnerships at the nonprofit Partnership for Public Service. She maintains that “[F]ormer military leaders have direct leadership experience and bring talent and integrity that could be applied in a nonprofit organization. . .” (seniormilitaryintransition.com/tag/eden-murrie/). Given the early retirement age, former military personnel (and reservists) are a natural fit for positions of influence in federal, state, and local governments, school boards, nonprofits, and volunteer work; many are in those places.

    Perhaps the coziest relationships under the insecurity blanket are the multitudes of contracts and grants the Department of Defense tenders to the nonprofit world. DoD fiscal reporting is notoriously inaccurate, and there were conflicting accounts between and within the online databases. Nevertheless, even a fuzzy picture gives a good idea of the depth and scope of the coverage.

    From the TNC 2016 Annual Report: “The Nature Conservancy is an organization that takes care of people and land, and they look for opportunities to partner. They’re nonpolitical. We need nongovernment organizations like TNC to help mobilize our citizens. They are on the ground. They understand the people, the politics, the partnerships. We need groups like TNC to subsidize what government organizations can’t do” (Mamie Parker, Former Assistant Director, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Arkansas Trustee, The Nature Conservancy).

    Among the subsidies going the other way are 44 DoD contracts with TNC totaling several million for the years 2008-2018 (USA). These are for such services as Prairie Habitat Reforestation, $100,000, and Runway and Biosecurity upkeep at Palmyra Atoll, HI, $82,000 (USA). For the years 2000-2016, GCW lists a total of $5,500,000 in TNC’s DoD contracts.

    Grants to TNC for specific projects, not clearly different from contracts, were much larger. Each is listed separately (USA); a rough count of the total was more than $150 million. One $55 million grant was for “Army compatible use buffer (acubs) in vicinity of Fort Benning military installation.” Similar grants, the largest, $14 million, were for this service at other bases. Another was for the implementation of Fort Benning army installation’s ecological monitoring plan. Included in the description of these grants was the notice: “Assist State and local governments to mitigate or prevent incompatible civilian land use/activity that is likely to impair the continued operational utility of a Department of Defense (DoD) military installation. Grantees and participating governments are expected to adopt and implement the study recommendations.”

    TNC’s Form 990 for 2017 states its investment income as $21 million. It reported government grants of $108.5 million, and government contracts of $9 million. These may include funds from state and local as well as all departments of the federal government. The Department of the Interior, which manages the vast lands used for bombing ranges and live ammunition war games, is another TNC grantor.

    Other environmental organizations sustained by DoD contracts are the National Audubon Society ($945,000 for 6 years, GCW), and Point Reyes Bird Observatory ($145,000, 6 years, GCW). USA reports contracts with Stichting Deltares, a Dutch coastal research institute, for $550,000 in 2016, grants to the San Diego Zoo of $367,000, and to the Institute for Wildlife Studies, $1.3 million for shrike monitoring.

    Goodwill Industries (training and employing the disabled, ex-offenders, veterans, and homeless people) is an enormous military contractor. Each entity is a separate corporation, based on state or region, and the total receipt is in the billions. For example, for 2000-2016 (GCW), Goodwill of South Florida had $434 million and Southeastern Wisconsin $906 million in contracts. Goods and services provided include food and logistics support, records processing, army combat pants, custodial, security, mowing, and recycling. Similar organizations working for the DoD include the Jewish Vocational Service and Community Workshop, janitorial services, $12 million over 5 years; Lighthouse for the Blind, $4.5 million, water purification equipment; Ability One; National Institute for the Blind; Pride Industries; and Melwood Horticultural Training Center.

    The DoD does not shun the work of Federal Prison Industries, which sells furniture and other products. A government corporation (and thus not a nonprofit), it had half a billion in sales to all federal departments in 2016. Prison labor, Goodwill Industries, and other sheltered-workshop enterprises, along with for- profits employing immigrant workers, teenagers, retirees, and migrant workers (who grow food for the military and the rest of us), reveal the evolving nature of the US working class, and some explanation for its lack of revolutionary fervor, or even mild dissent from the capitalist system.

    The well-paid, and truly diverse employees (including executives) of major weapons makers are also not about to construct wooden barricades. Boards of directors in these industries are welcoming to minorities and women. The CEOs of Lockheed and General Dynamics are women, as is the Chief Operating Officer of Northrop Grumman. These success stories reinforce personal aspirations among the have-nots, rather than questioning the system.

    Contracts with universities, hospitals, and medical facilities are too numerous to detail here; one that illustrates how far the blanket stretches is with Oxford University, $800,000 for medical research. Professional associations with significant contracts include the Institute of International Education, American Council on Education, American Association of State Colleges and Universities, National Academy of Sciences, Society of Women Engineers, American Indian Science and Engineering Society, American Association of Nurse Anesthetists, Society of Mexican-American Engineers, and U.S. Green Building Council. The Council of State Governments (a nonprofit policy association of officials) received a $193,000 contract for “preparedness” work. Let us hope we are well prepared.

    The leaders, staff, members, donors, and volunteers of nonprofit organizations are the kind of people who might have been peace activists, yet so many are smothered into silence under the vast insecurity blanket. In addition to all the direct and indirect beneficiaries of the military establishment, many people with no connection still cheer it on. They have been subject to relentless propaganda forthe military and its wars from the government, the print and digital press, TV, movies, sports shows, parades, and computer games—the latter teach children that killing is fun.

    The indoctrination goes down easily. It has had a head start in the educational system that glorifies the violent history of the nation. Our schools are full of in-house tutoring, STEM programs, and fun robotics teams personally conducted by employees of the weapons makers. Young children may not understand all the connections, but they tend to remember the logos. The JROTC programs, imparting militaristic values, enroll far more children than the ones who will become future officers. The extremely well-funded recruitment efforts in schools include “fun” simulations of warfare.

    There is a worldwide supporting cast for the complex that includes NATO, other alliances, defense ministries, foreign military industries, and bases, but that is a story for another day.

    The millions sheltered under our thick and broad blanket, including the enlistees under the prickly part of it, are not to blame. Some people may be thrilled by the idea of death and destruction. However, most are just trying to earn a living, keep their organization or rust belt afloat, or be accepted into polite company. They would prefer constructive work or income from healthy sources. Yet many have been indoctrinated to believe that militarism is normal and necessary. For those who consider change to be essential if life on this planet has a chance at survival, it is important to see all the ways that the military- industrial-congressional-almost everything-complex is being sustained.

    “Free market economy” is a myth. In addition to the huge nonprofit (non-market) sector, government intervention is substantial, not only in the gigantic military, but in agriculture, education, health care, infrastructure, economic development (!), et al. For the same trillions we could have a national economy that repairs the environment, provides a fine standard of living and cultural opportunities for all, and works for peace on earth.

    *  *  *

    Joan Roelofs is Professor Emerita of Political Science, Keene State College, New Hampshire. She is the author of Foundations and Public Policy: The Mask of Pluralism (SUNY Press, 2003) and Greening Cities (Rowman and Littlefield, 1996). She is the translator of Victor Considerant’s Principles of Socialism (Maisonneuve Press, 2006), and with Shawn P. Wilbur, of Charles Fourier’s anti-war fantasy, The World War of Small Pastries (Autonomedia, 2015). A community education short course on the military industrial complex is on her website, and may be used for similar purposes.

    Site: www.joanroelofs.wordpress.com Contact: joan.roelofs@myfairpoint.net

  • Record Murders Plague Mexico In First Half Of 2018: "The Figures Are Horrible"

    Mexico’s next president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a former Mexico City mayor and outspoken critic of the political establishment – has a significant uphill battle once he is inaugurated as President on December 01: deadly violence in the country is intensifying and has hit an all-time high.

    Mexico posted its highest homicides on record, with a new government report Sunday showing murders in the country rose by 16 percent in the first half of 2018.

    The Interior Department said there were 15,973 homicides in the first half of the year, compared to 13,751 killings in the same period of 2017.

    According to the AP, the record-breaking homicides have surpassed the violence seen during the dark years of Mexico’s drug war in 2011, along with exceeding all government data since records began in 1997.

    At these crisis levels, the department’s homicide rate for the country stands around 22 per 100,000 population for year-end estimates — near the level of Columbia 24.2 and Guatemala 26.0.

    Security analyst Alejandro Hope told the AP, “the figures are horrible, but there are some signs that are halfway encouraging.”

    For example, the growth in homicides could be slowing; murders were up only about 4 percent compared to the second half of 2017. “The curve may be flattening out,” Hope noted, though he warned his forecast could be incorrect.

    Hope noted that the northern border state of Baja California exhibited the largest surge in homicide rates, while other states saw declines.

    “Baja California, home to the border city of Tijuana, saw 1,463 homicides in the first half of the year, a 44 percent increase over the same period of 2017. Authorities have attributed the spate of killings to battles between the Jalisco and Sinaloa drug cartels for control of trafficking routes in Baja California. The state is now Mexico’s second most violent, with a homicide rate for the first six months of the year equivalent to 71 murders per 100,000 inhabitants,” said AP.

    By comparison, El Salvador and Venezuela are among the deadliest countries in the world — have homicide rates of around 54 to 60 per 100,000.

    Thanks to the Jalisco drug cartel, Mexico’s most dangerous state is Colima, on the central Pacific coast, which experienced a 27-percent increase in killings and now has a shocking homicide rate of about 80 per 100,000

    Guanajuato, a central Mexican state, saw a 122 percent increase in homicides, which now has a rate of about 40 per 100,000. Government officials have reported that much of violent crime is linked to gangs of fuel thieves who drill taps into government pipelines.

    Here are Mexico’s eight most violent states by annual homicide rate, based on federal data. Over the past few years, killings rebounded in Baja California and Chihuahua states:

    Mexico is on pace to top the record-setting violence of 2017. The 15,973 murders over the first six months of 2018 exceed the 13,503 reported over the same period last year.

    Drug trafficking routes overlaid with homicide rates (2015) — notice a pattern?

    Earlier this year, the US State Department published a new multi-tiered travel advisory system to warn U.S. citizens of traveling to Mexico. Travel advisories range from Level 1 (“exercise normal precautions”) to Level 4 (“do not travel”).

    According to the Igarapé Institute, a Brazilian-based think tank that focuses on emerging security and development issues, the murder epidemic is not just limited to Mexico, but across all of Latin America.

    The Institute stated the current situation is incredibly complex and results from decades of corruption, drug trafficking, organized crime, contraband, illegal mining, land rights, and in some cases, violence by state military forces.

     

  • Here's How Systems (And Nations) Fail

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    These embedded processes strip away autonomy, equating compliance with effectiveness even as the processes become increasingly counter-productive and wasteful.

    Would any sane person choose America’s broken healthcare system over a cheaper, more effective alternative? Let’s see: the current system costs twice as much per person as the healthcare systems of our developed-world competitors, a medication to treat infantile spasms costs $8 per vial in Europe and $38,892 in the U.S., and by any broad measure, the health of the U.S. populace is declining.

    This is how systems and nations fail: nobody chose the current broken system, but now it can’t be changed because the incentive structure locks in embedded processes that enrich self-serving insiders at the expense of the system, nation and its populace.

    Nobody chose America’s insane healthcare system–it arose from a set of initial conditions that generated perverse incentives to do more of what’s failing and protect the processes that benefit insiders at the expense of everyone else.

    In other words, the system that was intended to benefit all ends up benefitting the few at the expense of the many.

    The same question can be asked of America’s broken higher education system:would any sane person choose a system that enriches insiders by indenturing students via massive student loans (i.e. forcing them to become debt serfs)?

    Students and their parents certainly wouldn’t choose the current broken system, but the lenders reaping billions of dollars in profits would choose to keep it, and so would the under-assistant deans earning a cool $200K+ for “administering” some embedded process that has effectively nothing to do with actual learning.

    The academic ronin a.k.a. adjuncts earning $35,000 a year (with little in the way of benefits or security) for doing much of the actual teaching wouldn’t choose the current broken system, either.

    Now that the embedded processes are generating profits and wages, everyone benefitting from these processes will fight to the death to retain and expand them, even if they threaten the system with financial collapse and harm the people who the system was intended to serve.

    How many student loan lenders and assistant deans resign in disgust at the parasitic system that higher education has become? The number of insiders who refuse to participate any longer is signal noise, while the number who plod along, either denying their complicity in a parasitic system of debt servitude and largely worthless diplomas (i.e. the system is failing the students it is supposedly educating at enormous expense) or rationalizing it is legion.

    If I was raking in $200,000 annually from a system I knew was parasitic and counter-productive, I would find reasons to keep my head down and just “do my job,” too.

    At some point, the embedded processes become so odious and burdensome that those actually providing the services start bailing out of the broken system. We’re seeing this in the number of doctors and nurses who retire early or simply quit to do something less stressful and more rewarding.

    These embedded processes strip away autonomy, equating compliance with effectiveness even as the processes become increasingly counter-productive and wasteful. The typical mortgage documents package is now a half-inch thick, a stack of legal disclaimers and stipulations that no home buyer actually understands (unless they happen to be a real estate attorney).

    How much value is actually added by these ever-expanding embedded processes?

    By the time the teacher, professor or doctor complies with the curriculum / “standards of care”, there’s little room left for actually doing their job. But behind the scenes, armies of well-paid administrators will fight to the death to keep the processes as they are, no matter how destructive to the system as a whole.

    This is how systems and the nations that depend on them fail. 

    Meds skyrocket in price…

    …student loans top $1 trillion…

    F-35 fighter aircraft are double the initial cost estimates and so on, and the insider solutions are always the same: just borrow another trillion to keep the broken system afloat for another year.

    *  *  *
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  • Americans Overwhelmingly Reject Going To War With Iran, New Poll Finds

    Americans are opposed to going to war against Iran by a more than two-to-one margin according to a new poll

    This week relations between Iran and Washington entered a heightened intensity and new war of words, with the dangerous potential for an actual war seeming to rise daily, especially after President Trump’s latest twitter warning to Iran of “consequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered before…” should Iran’s leaders threaten the United States. 

    The US has repeatedly threatened to throttle Iran’s international oil trade as it’s moved closer to imposing sanctions on countries including key allies that don’t eliminate or significantly cut imports of Iranian oil by Nov. 4. It’s but the latest crisis to emerge after the White House pulled the US out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in May. This is why gauging public opinion on the prospect for war with Iran is particularly important at the end of this week.

    The new HuffPost/YouGov survey finds the prospect of war with Iran out of step with the American public on a bipartisan basis:

    Just 23 percent of the public say they’d support the U.S. deciding to declare war on Iran, while the majority, 53 percent, oppose the idea. Just 9 percent would strongly support declaring war, while 37 percent are strongly opposed.

    The survey further finds: “Voters who backed Hillary Clinton in the last election are the most vehemently against the idea, with 82 percent opposed and just 6 percent in favor; non-voters are also opposed, 48 percent to 20 percent.” 

    And concerning Trump supporters: “Voters who backed President Donald Trump’s campaign are more likely to support a war against Iran, but even among that group, backing remains below the majority level, with 47 percent saying they’d support declaring war, and 29 percent that they’d oppose it.”

    Numbers among Trump supporters:

    The poll was taken early this week, soon after Trump blasted Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani on twitter, eliciting multiple belligerent statements from Iranian military generals which followed. 

    The poll also found that 60% of Americans surveyed were aware of the Trump tweet through news reports, with 12% saying they’d seen in directly on twitter.

    Numbers among Clinton voters:

     

    About 60 percent of Americans polled say they’d heard about Trump’s tweet, although just 12 percent had seen it directly on Twitter, with the rest learning about it from the news.

    The poll concludes of Trump’s general handling of Iran-related issues: “Overall, 36 percent of Americans say they approve of Trump’s handling of issues related to Iran, while 42 percent disapprove, and the rest is uncertain. That net -6 is slightly more positive than overall views of Trump’s job performance.”

    There are a number of hawks in the Trump administration who would like to see a preemptive strike happen based on the claim of an alleged continuing nuclear weapons program, most notably among them national security adviser John Bolton and Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani. Though notorious uber-hawk Bolton may have had his wings clipped by President Trump, he’s on record as wanting “regime change in Tehran” before 2019

  • Bill Clinton Heckled By Angry Prostitutes In Amsterdam

    Bill Clinton was heckled by activists at the International AIDS Conference in Amsterdam on Friday while he was giving a speech. 

    Walking down the center aisle with red umbrellas, protesters demanded the decriminalization, respect and protection of sex workers and drug users – while also vehemently opposing the location of the next conference scheduled for San Francisco in 2020. 

    Clinton responded to the protesters objection to San Francisco as the venue for 2020, telling them: “You should also know for those of us who care about this issue in the United States, it is a sacred place. Many people died and all the first battles were fought, and they died some more. So I think when you get there, you’ll be glad they held the conference in San Francisco.” 

    “The decision to bring the International AIDS Conference to the U.S.A in 2020 reflects a gross disregard to the expressed requests of gay men, people who use drugs, and sex workers that the conference be hosted in a country where our participation is possible,” said George Ayala, executive director of MPACT Global Action for Gay Men’s Health and Rights, in a statement earlier this week.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Matthew Hodson, of the HIV-information website AIDS map and who was attending the conference told PinkNews that the audience were broadly sympathetic to the protesters’ aims.

    He said: “I couldn’t put a figure on it, but they received very warm applause from the delegates and they also received applause from President Clinton too.

    “I do think it’s problematic that they are planning on holding the next conference in San Francisco, I’m very concerned that key populations will be discouraged from attending. –Pink News

    Perhaps the attendees also enjoy using plastic straws and don’t like stepping in poo?

    Meanwhile, Clinton’s stop in Amsterdam came as a surprise to locals:

    A visit last year drew similar reactions:

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  • Mortgage Prison: Sydney Home Prices Suffer Largest Annual Decline Since 2008

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

    Home prices in Sydney and Melbourne are back to 2016 levels. That is a tiny down payment as to what is coming.

    News AU reports House Prices Drop in Sydney, as Melbourne Prices Stall.

    Tumbling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne are the main drivers behind the first annual drop in national property prices in six years, a new report shows. The national median house price fell 1.0 per cent over the June quarter and year, according to a report by property classifieds group Domain released on Thursday.

    It is the first time values have fallen on an annual basis since June 2012.

    The negative national growth rate reflects weakening house prices in Sydney and Melbourne, which together represent about two thirds of Australia’s housing market by value.

    Sydney house prices fell by 4.5 per cent in the 12 months to the end of June for their largest annual drop since 2008. Sydney units also fell by 3.5 per cent over the same period.

    The figures chime with those released this week by property data firm CoreLogic, which said overall Sydney prices fell 5.0 per cent in the 12 months to July 22.

    “House and unit prices in Sydney are now back to values seen at the end of 2016,” Domain property analyst Nicola Powell told AAP. Tighter credit availability and a high number of units being built are key factors behind the dive, Dr Powell said.

    Apartment Boom Comes to End

    Next up, please consider Construction Set for Biggest Decline Since the Global Financial Crisis

    Australia’s building commencements, fueled by investor apartment construction, look like heading from boom to bust, according to forecaster BIS Oxford Economics.

    In a reality check for investors who bought at the top of the apartment boom, BIS is predicting the biggest correction since the global financial crisis hit in 2008, with housing starts set to fall by almost 23 per cent by 2020.

    Associate director Adrian Hart told the ABC’s AM program that the slump would be led by high-density dwelling construction, which is set to halve over the next two years

    A key factor in the residential slowdown has been tougher regulation by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to curb investor lending, while the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and tax office has been clamping down on overseas buyers.

    Mortgage Prison

    Finally, and most importantly, please consider Aussie Homeowners Trapped in ‘Mortgage Prison’.

    Australian homeowners are trapped in “mortgage prison” because of a rule change. And there is no easy way out.

    Changes in bank rules around living expenses calculations have effectively wiped huge amounts off the maximum a bank will allow you to borrow.

    Many people are now finding they originally borrowed more than a bank would lend them under current conditions, meaning they haven’t got the option of shopping around to get a better interest rate — no bank will lend them the amount they need.

    Precise numbers of Australia’s mortgage prisoners are hard to come by, but Mozo investment and lending expert Steve Jovcevski told news.com.au that he expected most of them are those who have borrowed and bought in the last five years.

    Oops!

    Jovcevski gave an example in which a couple was able to borrow $800,000 a year ago can now only borrow $680,000 under the same rules.

    They are now trapped in a mortgage with no way to refinance and no buyers because of declining prices.

    Mortgage Slaves for Life

    This is precisely what some us foresaw years ago. It’s finally come home to roost, and at a time China is highly unlikely to bail out these buyers.

    People may be trapped for decades. So expect to see more articles like this as desperation sets in: Australia Housing Insanity: Tent Outside, Full Use of Apartment, Cheap, $90 Per Week.

    That was from a year ago. Rates will drop fast. Buyers will need tenants to stay afloat.

    Special Mention

    Dateline July 23, 2017

    13-Year-Old Kid Buys $552,000 Home

    Meet Akira Ellis a 13-year-old kid. He just bought his first piece of real estate, a $552,000 four-room one bath house in Melbourne’s Frankston.

    Right at the peak of the market a 13-year-old kid (with obvious help from his parents), bought a house costing over half a million dollars.

    I noted “Akira is already looking for his next property.”

    I asked “What can possibly go wrong?”

    Today, we found out.

     

  • Which College Degrees Get The Highest Salaries?

    If you’re a college graduate, you likely went to school to pursue an important passion of yours.

    But as we all know, what we major in has consequences that extend far beyond the foundation of knowledge we build in our early years. As  Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, any program we choose to enroll in also sets up a track to meet future friends, career opportunities, and connections.

    Even further, the college degree you choose will partially dictate your future earning potential – especially in the first decade after school. If jobs in your field are in high demand, it can even set you up for long-term financial success, enabling you to pay off costly student loans and build up savings potential.

    DATA BACKGROUNDER

    Today’s chart comes to us from Reddit user /r/SportsAnalyticsGuy, and it’s based on PayScale’s year-long survey of 1.2 million users that graduated only with a bachelor degree in the United States. You can access the full set of data here.

    The data covers two different salary categories:

    Starting median salary: The median of what people were earning after they graduated with their degree.

    Mid-career Percentiles: Salary data from 10 years after graduation, sorted by percentile (10th, 25th, Median, 75th, and 90th)

    In other words, the starting median salary represents what people started making after they graduated, and the rest of the chart depicts the range that people were making 10 years after they got their degree. Lower earners (10th percentile) are the lower bound, and higher earners (90th) are the upper bound.

    COLLEGE DEGREES, BY SALARY

    What college majors win out?

    Here’s the top 20 majors from the data set, sorted by mid-career median salary (10 years in):

    Based on this data, there are a few interesting things to point out.

    The top earning specialization out of college is for Physician Assistants, with a median starting salary of $74,300. The downside of this degree is that earning potential levels out quickly, only showing a 23.4% increase in earning power 10 years in.

    In contrast, the biggest increases in earning power go to Math, Philosophy, Economics, Marketing, Physics, Political Science, and International Relations majors. All these degrees see a 90% or higher increase from median starting salary to median mid-career salary.

    In absolute terms, the majors that saw the highest median mid-career salaries were all along the engineering spectrum: chemical engineering, computer engineering, electrical engineering, and aerospace engineering all came in above $100,000. They also generally had very high starting salaries.

    As a final note, it’s important to recognize that this data does not necessarily correlate to today’s degrees or job market. The data set is based on people that graduated at least a decade ago – and therefore, it does not necessarily represent what grads may experience as they are starting their careers today.

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