Today’s News 16th February 2017

  • The Public Should Demand To See The Michael Flynn Transcript

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    The United States is much better off without Michael Flynn serving as national security adviser. But no one should be cheering the way he was brought down.

     

    The whole episode is evidence of the precipitous and ongoing collapse of America’s democratic institutions — not a sign of their resiliency. Flynn’s ouster was a soft coup (or political assassination) engineered by anonymous intelligence community bureaucrats. The results might be salutary, but this isn’t the way a liberal democracy is supposed to function.

     

    President Trump was roundly mocked among liberals for that tweet. But he is, in many ways, correct. These leaks are an enormous problem. And in a less polarized context, they would be recognized immediately for what they clearly are: an effort to manipulate public opinion for the sake of achieving a desired political outcome. It’s weaponized spin.

     

    In a liberal democracy, how things happen is often as important as what happens. Procedures matter. So do rules and public accountability. The chaotic, dysfunctional Trump White House is placing the entire system under enormous strain. That’s bad. But the answer isn’t to counter it with equally irregular acts of sabotage — or with a disinformation campaign waged by nameless civil servants toiling away in the surveillance state.

     

    – From The Week article: America’s Spies Anonymously Took Down Michael Flynn. That is Deeply Worrying.

    I never intended to write about the Michael Flynn affair. I figured it had been covered to death and I probably wouldn’t have anything to add to the conversation. That said, I hadn’t been following the story closely so I decided to get caught up by reading a diverse selection of articles on the topic. One of my favorite sources on such subjects is Glenn Greenwald, and I eagerly read his latest piece on the matter: The Leakers Who Exposed Gen. Flynn’s Lie Committed Serious — and Wholly Justified — Felonies.

    There are several key points he outlines in the piece, most of which I agree with. First, he proves that the leakers committed serious felonies under the law. Second, he states that if illegal leaks lead to the disclosure of information that is clearly very much in the public interest, then such action is not only justified, but ethically necessary. I agree with this as well. Where he doesn’t really convince me, is the argument that this particular leak represented some sort of great public service. He writes:

    This Flynn episode underscores another critical point: The motives of leakers are irrelevant. It’s very possible — indeed, likely — that the leakers here were not acting with benevolent motives. Nobody with a straight face can claim that lying to the public is regarded in official Washington as some sort of mortal sin; if anything, the contrary is true: It’s seen as a job requirement.

     

    Moreover, Gen. Flynn has many enemies throughout the intelligence and defense community. The same is true, of course, of Donald Trump; recall that just a few weeks ago, Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer warned Trump that he was being “really dumb” to criticize the intelligence community because “they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you.”

     

    It’s very possible — I’d say likely — that the motive here was vindictive rather than noble. Whatever else is true, this is a case where the intelligence community, through strategic (and illegal) leaks, destroyed one of its primary adversaries in the Trump White House.

     

    But no matter. What matters is not the motive of the leaker but the effects of the leak. Any leak that results in the exposure of high-level wrongdoing — as this one did — should be praised, not scorned and punished.

    Glenn’s conclusion here is that the Flynn leak exposed high-level wrongdoing. What wrongdoing are we talking about specifically? Yes, it seems he clearly lied to the public and Mike Pence about the content of his conversation with the Russian ambassador. The lie to Mike Pence in particular led to Pence embarrassing himself publicly by repeating that lie, and this betrayal seems to be the primary motivator (from my seat) of why Trump fired him. Others are referring to potential violations of the Logan Act, but as we learned from Lawfare:

    Flynn certainly breached protocol. He may also have broken the law by interfering with U.S. diplomatic efforts while still a private citizen, which is forbidden by the Logan Act. The centuries-old law is vague, however, and has never resulted in a conviction. Furthermore, there may be significant First Amendment problems with enforcing it. Officials became more alarmed when Flynn was not forthcoming with Vice President-Elect Pence and others, possibly including federal agents, about the conversations. Those officials feared that Flynn’s dissembling might open up him up to risks of blackmail.

    Yes, Flynn was a private citizen, but he was less than a month away from being a high-level government official, and the Obama administration was doing everything it possibly could to antagonize Russia during its last few weeks in office. I’m not justifying what Flynn said in those conversations, or the lies he told about it, but there’s a key problem with this whole leak. It wasn’t really a leak meant to inform the public. It was a leak to specific journalists, at specific papers, with a clear intent of political assassination through the manipulation of public opinion via cryptic releases of filtered information.

    For example, here’s how the New York Times reported on the information in its February 9 article, Flynn Is Said to Have Talked to Russians About Sanctions Before Trump Took Office:

    WASHINGTON — Weeks before President Trump’s inauguration, his national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, discussed American sanctions against Russia, as well as areas of possible cooperation, with that country’s ambassador to the United States, according to current and former American officials.

     

    Throughout the discussions, the message Mr. Flynn conveyed to the ambassador, Sergey I. Kislyak — that the Obama administration was Moscow’s adversary and that relations with Russia would change under Mr. Trump — was unambiguous and highly inappropriate, the officials said.

     

    But current and former American officials said that conversation — which took place the day before the Obama administration imposed sanctions on Russia over accusations that it used cyberattacks to help sway the election in Mr. Trump’s favor — ranged far beyond the logistics of a post-inauguration phone call. And they said it was only one in a series of contacts between the two men that began before the election and also included talk of cooperating in the fight against the Islamic State, along with other issues.

     

    The officials said that Mr. Flynn had never made explicit promises of sanctions relief, but that he had appeared to leave the impression it would be possible.

    How do we know what was really said without the transcript?

    During the Christmas week conversation, he urged Mr. Kislyak to keep the Russian government from retaliating over the coming sanctions — it was an open secret in Washington that they were in the works — by telling him that whatever the Obama administration did could be undone, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were discussing classified material.

     

    Federal officials who have read the transcript of the call were surprised by Mr. Flynn’s comments, since he would have known that American eavesdroppers closely monitor such calls. They were even more surprised that Mr. Trump’s team publicly denied that the topics of conversation included sanctions.

     

    Prosecutions in these types of cases are rare, and the law is murky, particularly around people involved in presidential transitions. The officials who had read the transcripts acknowledged that while the conversation warranted investigation, it was unlikely, by itself, to lead to charges against a sitting national security adviser.

    I have so many issues with the above reporting it’s hard to know where to start. Everything mentioned above is given to us secondhand via “anonymous American officials.” Nowhere do I see any specific quotes from the transcript, despite the fact that the paper admits it talked with federal officials who read it. Why not? Why must we hear about the content of the transcripts secondhand from anonymous officials? This is the most significant red flag with this whole story. If the leakers were truly interested in transparency, and wanted the public to know the truth, why not leak the transcript to Wikileaks and let the public decide?

    I’ll tell you why. They didn’t do this because transparency was never the goal here. They wanted to illegally use intelligence information to take a scalp from a Trump administration they hate, and they knew they could do this via mainstream media journalists. I know what you’re thinking, Edward Snowden didn’t leak everything to Wikileaks either. He likewise picked a few journalists and trusted them to responsibly report the information. How is this any different?

    It’s different in two important respects. First, we are talking about a single transcript, or a few transcripts, as opposed to the enormous intelligence data-dump that Snowden provided. Secondly, The Intercept and others who reported on the Snowden material provided a huge amount of primary source documentation for the public to see so that it could come to its own conclusion. They didn’t simply tell everyone what to think about leaked documents while refusing to share any actual content. Where are the specific, comprehensive quotes from the Flynn transcript? Why doesn’t the public have a right to see the entire thing? Instead, we are being told what happened and what to think via secondhand anonymous sources. Sorry, but this doesn’t cut it for me.

    I have yet to see any excerpts from the transcript. All I’ve seen is what anonymous officials say was discussed. This is absurd. We the people should demand the content of the relevant transcripts so we can decide for ourselves just how bad Flynn’s actions were. In the absence of this, we’re essentially being manipulated on a massive scale by rogue intelligence agents and told what to think through the major newspapers. This doesn’t cut it for me. I want to see the content of these conversations so I can make up my own mind. Perhaps it’s even worse than we know. So be it. We should be treated as adults and allowed to see the actual conversation if it’s going to be made into a story of such huge national importance.

    Finally, I want to end with the mind-boggling absurdity of those who wanted Edward Snowden’s head on a platter, but are somehow ok with these leaks. As Lawfare explains:

    Furthermore, these leaks are criminal. As Edward Snowden has learned, the Espionage Act makes intentional disclosure of classified “communications intelligence activities” a felony if such disclosure is made in a “manner prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States or for the benefit of any foreign government . . . .”  18 U.S.C. § 798(a). This particular group of leakers might argue their motives were in defense of U.S. interests—to protect the nation from national security policy guided by a hand tainted by Russian influence—but under current law, that argument is highly unlikely to prevail. As Snowden well knows, there is no public interest defense to prosecution for violations of the Espionage Act.

    Somehow I doubt the Flynn leakers will find themselves in the same position as Snowden, scrambling to get to a country that will provide them safe haven from the vast, vindictive reach of the U.S. government. That’s because the leakers in this case are powerful operatives of the deep state. As Greenwald explained:

    It’s hard to put into words how strange it is to watch the very same people — from both parties, across the ideological spectrum — who called for the heads of Edward Snowden, Chelsea Manning, Tom Drake, and so many other Obama-era leakers today heap praise on those who leaked the highly sensitive, classified SIGINT information that brought down Gen. Flynn.

     

    It’s even more surreal to watch Democrats act as though lying to the public is some grave firing offense when President Obama’s top national security official, James Clapper, got caught red-handed not only lying to the public but also to Congress — about a domestic surveillance program that courts ruled was illegal. And despite the fact that lying to Congress is a felony, he kept his job until the very last day of the Obama presidency.

     

    But this is how political power and the addled partisan brain in D.C. functions. Those in power always regard leaks as a heinous crime, while those out of power regard them as a noble act. They seamlessly shift sides as their position in D.C. changes.

    Finally, if you want to get a sense of the mindset behind the most adamant defenders of the Flynn leaks, take a look at the following tweets from former NSA analyst and Naval War College professor, John Schindler.

    If that’s “the resistance,” I want no part of it. As I summarized on Twitter:

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  • Arguing Immigration with a Compassionate Liberal -or- How to Twist Your Head into a Pretzel

     The following article by David Haggith was published first on The Great Recession Blog:

    Dorothea Lange [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

    Arguing with a liberal about the economic impact of rampant immigration will twist your brain into a pretzel. It inevitably goes something like this:

    “Illegal aliens and legal immigrants are taking millions of our jobs.”

    “No, they’re not.”

    “Then they’re all on welfare.”

    “No, they’re not. Even most undocumented workers are productive members of society.” 

    “How are they productive if they’re not taking jobs?”

    “Undocumented workers are only taking jobs American’s don’t want.”

    “Americans don’t want those jobs because migrant workers have been taking them for so many decades that wages have remained stagnant at a level that only a totally desperate person would work for. That is exactly how they are hurting us by taking jobs. They are not just taking up jobs, but they are keeping wages suppressed because Americans would have to reduce themselves to living like many migrant workers in substandard housing and driving badly broken vehicles in order to stay alive at those wages if they accepted those jobs.”

    “Migrants only live at that level because they are forced to.”

    “Exactly. They are forced to because the pay for those jobs never goes up because they are willing to live at that level out of desperation if that is what it takes to stay alive, and you’re willing to exploit them.”

    “And if migrant workers didn’t do that, you’d have to pay more for all the food you eat. Do you really want to pay more for everything?”

     

     

    Migrant Workers in California Fields

    Migrant workers in a California field.

     

     

    Maintaining a peasant immigrant labor class is what it is really all about

     

    And that, you see, is the bottom line — cheap labor via a peasant class. We don’t want to pay more for everything, so both political parties turn a blind eye to the cheap, illegal labor and keep the peasants coming, regardless of the social costs of maintaining a peasant class.

    They are truly peasants, not just because of their living conditions, but because they supposedly have no voting rights (debatable). They have no say in the laws that govern them so live by the rules of another class of people, and they have to keep their heads low to keep from being deported. That means they dare not complain about working conditions either, as Americans most certainly would.

    Peasants have to take what they get. That’s why we keep them illegal, and why we just catch and release them, letting them stay here in spite of the fact we know they have no legal right to because we just caught them crossing the border. It all forces them to keep their heads low … until one day they rise enough in numbers that they don’t keep their heads low any longer, and the peasants revolt against their slavish conditions.

     

     

    Caesar Chavez, Migrant Workers Union leader.

     

     

    What about the compassionate liberal argument for immigrant labor

     

    At this point, the liberal turns to the compassion argument, since the economic argument for immigrant labor leads to ruin. The compassionate argument runs like this, this time started by the liberal:

    “You are mean and cruel for wanting to kick a million and a half undocumented workers out of this country.”

    “No more mean and cruel than you are for insisting on keeping out the hundreds of millions more people who want in but are kept out because they respect our immigration laws.

    “I don’t insist on keeping anyone out.”

    “Of course you do. Otherwise, you’d spend all this protest energy trying to get the government to declare open borders to the whole world and let in everyone who wants in so long as they’re not criminals.”

    “There wouldn’t be that many that would come in anyway.”

    “Eliminate all immigration laws, except those barring criminals, and find out.”

    “That is ridiculous. We have to have some reasonable limits because we cannot absorb hundreds of millions all at once.”

    “So, you only want to keep out the ones who are respecting the legal process but keep in all the ones that jumped ahead of them in line? I want to kick out 1.5 million or more who jumped ahead in line, but you want to keep out hundreds of millions, and that makes you more compassionate?”

    “Yes, it does. We cannot absorb hundreds of millions. It’s ridiculous. I would if we could, but it’s not even possible.”

    “So, there is nothing wrong with having immigration laws, but just with enforcing them?”

    “Yes, that’s mean and cruel because you are breaking up families.”

    “Didn’t they know that was the huge risk they took in breaking the law and coming into the country illegally — that it might be really messy when they’re forced to leave?”

    “You’re a racist with no heart.”

    “What if I’m of English decent and also don’t want 1.5 million illegal aliens from the UK?”

    “You’re English? See, I knew you were racist.”

    “What if I just don’t want more people of any color, including my own, because we already have too many people in the US?”

    “Why don’t you just leave the country and solve the problem then?”

    “Aren’t you the one who promised you would leave if Trump was elected? Why should I just force the problem onto some other nation? You see, at one time, we had a vast land we wanted to occupy in order to keep the Indians from having it all, so bringing in immigrants was the only way to occupy all of it. But I think we’re full, and we can stop now.”

    “See, you’re a racist.”

    “No, I love Indians and even have some as relatives; but I’ll bet the Indians would have been glad to have a lot fewer migrants, too, starting with the Mayflower. Look, my point is that there was once a lot of land available. Now the land is overstrained. We don’t need more housing developments all over the countryside. Don’t need more congested streets and more auto pollution and more petroleum consumption. Don’t need more landfills filling up faster and more sewage, and we don’t even have enough potable water in the places that want immigrants the most. There is simply no way to bring in millions more people without adding to all those problems because we’re full now. The land simply cannot absorb more without it having a negative impact.”

    “That makes no sense. We’d have no economy if we stopped immigration. We have to keep bringing in people so that we have people to build housing for. Building those developments is what keeps the economy perking.”

    “So, we need all of our cities to endlessly grow like Mexico city or like California has been doing and never stop increasing the population because that is the only way to sustain a healthy economy? Is that the Californian version of sustainability? California has grown to where it doesn’t even have enough water for all of its people without going to another state to get it. So, doesn’t water, at least, force a point at which you say population growth is enough already? Yet, California wants immigrants more than any state. That’s why they’ve made themselves a sancturary against immigration law enforcement. Where is it going to get the additional water?”

    “That is ridiculous. Haven’t you seen that it is raining in California now? They’ve solved this problem. They now need more people in order to drink the water fast enough to keep their reservoirs from overflowing and breaking their damn dams.”

    “Maybe they just want to use all those people to fill the holes in the dam and plug the damn leaks.”

    “That’s horrible. They want them because they are compassionate.”

    “Then why are they so uncompassionate toward the millions of others that they keep out with immigration laws? Maybe they just don’t need all those others to pick their oranges for a penny each and mow their lawns at a nice low price. Maybe they just want enough to keep the price stable and low.”

    “That is a racist comment that assumes migrant workers are only good for mowing lawns and picking crops.”

    “It’s not me bringing them all in and then paying them poorly for mowing my lawn. I mow my own lawn. Isn’t that the situation you’re keeping all of them in? Why don’t you pay them more so they can live like you in a house right beside you, instead of mow your lawn and then return to their trailer? You know, open the community gates.”

    “That is ridiculous. Why is that my responsibility? I pay my gardeners fine. I pay them as much as anyone else does. I cannot help what the economy will bare.”

    “Of course you can, because maintaining such a huge supply of immigrant workers, especially the cheaper illegal ones, makes sure the cost of their labor stays low for you.”

     

    And there we are, full circle. It’s all about maintaining a peasant class for the privileged. How else will they enjoy a liberal lifestyle?

  • Youtube’s Biggest Personality, PewDiePie, Wrongly Defamed for Being an Anti-Semite

    PewdiePie used to do videos about video games, luring 53 million youngsters to subscribe to his channel — making it the biggest channel on Youtube ever, by a very large margin.

    Recently, he’s been dropping redpills on his subs, discussing media hypocrisy, with a slight conservative bent. He did a comedy video about Hitler and the result was manufactured outrage, spawned by a Wall Street Journal article and subsequent cancellation of a deal he had with Disney.

    Here’s the lesson gleaned from this episode of more main stream media FAKE NEWS: young people are getting pissed off by this and have taken to the internets to vent their rage.

    My son, who is 20, sent this to me.


     

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Meet China's Hedge Fund Capital

    China has often found itself in trouble over the past couple of decades for its attempts to replicate technology from other developed countries.  But technological advances aren’t the only things being mimicked in China as the country is also littered with fake replicas of monuments from around the world including the Great Sphinx of Giza, the Sydney Opera House and the U.S. Capitol building, just to name a few.

    Now, in an effort to replicate the United States’ bustling hedge fund industry, China has apparently also decided to knock off Greenwich, CT.  Appropriately named Yuhuang Shannan Fund Town, more than 1,000 hedge funds and private equity funds, overseeing a combined 580 billion yuan ($84 billion), have registered in the village since its official re-branding in May?2015.  And, with subsidies amounting to 30% of a typical firm’s tax bill adding to the area’s appeal, it’s no wonder that Yuhuang Shannan now boasts one of China’s largest hedge fund clusters outside the mega-cities of Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen…hedgies do love their tax havens.  Per Bloomberg:

    Nestled between the Qiantang River and Jade Emperor Hill, the village of Yuhuang Shannan feels a world removed from the surrounding metropolis of Hangzhou. The city of 9 million is hectic and loud, while this gated community—on the same site where emperors in the Song dynasty prayed for good harvests centuries ago—is quiet and green, exuding the feeling of a laid-back, high-end oasis.

    China Hedge Funds

     

    Almost non-existent just a couple of years ago, China’s hedge fund industry has blossomed recently with the total number of hedge funds almost doubled in 2016, and assets under management that have more than tripled over the past two years.

    In part, the Chinese hedge fund industry is booming thanks to cautious support from securities regulators and the gradual liberalization of local equity and bond markets. Despite some scandals—including a high-profile market manipulation conviction—­policymakers are starting to view hedge funds as worthwhile contributors to Asia’s largest economy.

    China Hedge Funds

    China Hedge Funds

     

    As Bloomberg notes, “fund towns”, like Yuhuang Shannan, are attracting alumni from some the largest U.S. banks and hedge funds from Goldman Sachs to Bridgewater.

    Alumni of Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have moved in, while a representative of Connecticut-­based Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund firm, is said to have made a recent visit. “The natural environment is fantastic, and I believe the cluster effect will become stronger and stronger,” says Ted Wang, a former co-head of equities trading for the Americas at Goldman Sachs who now runs Puissance Capital Management, a global investment firm with offices in New York and China. Wang has registered two of his Chinese equity funds in Yuhuang Shannan.

     

    In many ways, the evolution of Yuhuang Shannan mirrors that of the entire country. The area was used mostly for farmland until the 20th?century, when industrialization brought factories and warehouses. About a decade ago the local government made a big push into services, promoting the area first as a tourism zone and then as a design hub. Neither of those efforts was successful, but when hedge funds began moving in and authorities heard about Greenwich, the idea for a fund managers’ village took root.

    China Hedge Funds

     

    Today, Yuhuang Shannan is one of the most prominent examples of what policymakers call “characteristic small towns.” The village hosts about 3,000?employees of funds and related businesses, a figure local officials predict will climb as new residential and office space comes online.

    Of course, for economic planners keen to reduce the nation’s reliance on infrastructure spending and heavy manufacturing, there’s a lot to like about hedge funds…after all, you can’t just keep constructing buildings then knocking them down and rebuilding them to engineer economic growth…better to pursue that strategy with financial markets instead.  

    Unfortunately for China’s newest financial wizards, in addition to replicating Greenwich architecture, the hedge fund managers also managed to replicate the negative 2016 fund returns of American’s largest “2 & 20” billionaires. 

    While Chinese hedge funds lost money on average last year, they avoided a client backlash by outperforming local equity and credit markets. Funds tracked by Shanghai Suntime Information Technology were down 2.5 percent in 2016, vs. a 12 percent slide in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 10 percent retreat in high-yield corporate bonds. Client inflows fueled a 55?percent jump in industry assets, while the number of registered funds rose to a record 27,015, according to the Asset Management Association of China.

     

    Charlie Wang, who ran Bank of America’s global equity quant group in London before leaving to start his own investment firm in 2015, launched two funds in China last year. He says the country’s markets have entered something of a sweet spot; while they’ve grown more sophisticated, adding new tools such as futures and options, they’re still inefficient enough to produce attractive returns for savvy managers. That’s thanks in part to the outsize impact of individual investors, who drive more than 80 percent of volume in the Chinese stock market, vs. about 15 ?percent in the U.S.

     

    “It’s easier to achieve alpha here,” says Wang, 53, who oversees about 350 million yuan as the chairman of MD Grand Investments. He opened a commodity futures fund in Yuhuang Shannan last March and added an equity fund in July, connecting with some of his early clients through the village’s management committee.

    This should end well…

  • The Difference Between "F##k You Money" And "F##k Everybody Money"

    Submitted by Daniel Drew via Dark-Bid.com,

    Something strange happened at Google recently. Bloomberg alleges that Google paid its top level employees so much that they crossed the line into "F*** You Money" territory, prompting the employees to pack up and quit. While this intriguing turn of events may have transpired at Google and other technology companies, this would never happen on Wall Street for one reason alone: "F*** You Money" is simply not good enough for the fast money crowd. The pinnacle achievement in the investment industry is "F*** Everybody Money."

    As the Wall Street Journal aptly noted in their concise chart, most people making less than $10,000 are dissatisfied with life.

    As people approach the $100,000 mark, most of them are satisfied. That's why it's not terribly surprising to see stories like this one. Bloomberg reports,

    "Early staffers had an unusual compensation system that awarded supersized payouts based on the project's value. In addition to cash salaries, some staffers were given bonuses and equity in the business and these awards were set aside in a special entity. After several years, Google applied a multiplier to the value of the awards and paid some or all of it out. The multiplier was based on periodic valuations of the division, the people said. A large multiplier was applied to the compensation packages in late 2015, resulting in multi-million dollar payments in some cases, according to the people familiar with the situation. One member of the team had a multiplier of 16 applied to bonuses and equity amassed over four years, one of the people said."

    The whole purpose of compensation is to prevent employees from leaving. Ironically, Google's high pay caused just the opposite, turning traditional compensation theory on its head. This whole episode will be a case study for human resources departments for years. Why does high pay cease to be an incentive after a certain point? The compensation analysts apparently forgot to read the Wall Street Journal study. Most people are satisfied with "F*** You Money."

    Legitimate retention efforts start at the hiring process. If you have such a valuable project, finding highly qualified people is not enough. You have to find people who are both qualified and exponentially driven by money – with no cutoff point. You need someone who isn't satisfied with "F*** You Money." What you need is someone who settles for nothing less than "F*** Everybody Money."

    What is "F*** Everybody Money," and where can you find these people? Look no further.

  • On The Verge Of Treason: US Spies Withhold Intelligence From Trump

    Following President Trump’s exclamations today with regard “un-American” leaks of classified intel, it appears he has a bigger, more serious problem on his hands. WSJ reports that US intel officials have withheld information from President Trump due to concerns it could be leaked or compromised.

    The Wall Street Journal, citing unidentified current and former officials familiar with the matter, reports that officials’ decision to keep information from Mr. Trump underscores the deep mistrust that has developed between the intelligence community and the president over his team’s contacts with the Russian government, as well as the enmity he has shown toward U.S. spy agencies. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump accused the agencies of leaking information to undermine him.

    In some of these cases of withheld information, officials have decided not to show Mr. Trump the sources and methods that the intelligence agencies use to collect information, the current and former officials said. Those sources and methods could include, for instance, the means that an agency uses to spy on a foreign government.

    In some ways Trump may not care: according to the WSK, “Trump doesn’t immerse himself in intelligence information, and it isn’t clear that he has expressed a desire to know sources and methods. The intelligence agencies have been told to dramatically pare down the president’s daily intelligence briefing, both the number of topics and how much information is described under each topic, an official said. Compared with his immediate predecessors, Mr. Trump so far has chosen to rely less on the daily briefing than they did.”

    However, now that the WSJ brought up this topic, one can be absolutely sure the first demand Trump will make during his next intel briefing: “show me all the information.” That’s when things could get rough.

    The officials quoted by the WSJ emphasized they know of no instance in which crucial information about security threats or potential plotting has been omitted, although if indeed “some” information is withheld, it is the functional equivalent of Trump making decisions blind.

    While a White House official said: “There is nothing that leads us to believe that this is an accurate account of what is actually happening”, Rep. Adam Schiff (D., Calif.), the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, said he has heard concerns from officials about sharing especially sensitive information with Mr. Trump.

    “I’ve talked with people in the intelligence community that do have concerns about the White House, about the president, and I think those concerns take a number of forms,” Mr. Schiff said, without confirming any specific incidents.

     

    “What the intelligence community considers their most sacred obligation is to protect the very best intelligence and to protect the people that are producing it.”

    So, why are they worried?

    The current and former officials said the decision to avoid revealing sources and methods with Mr. Trump stems in large part from the president’s repeated expressions of admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his call, during the presidential campaign for Russia to continue hacking the emails of his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.

    As the long-running tensions between the pro-Hillary intelligence community and President Trump rise, it is becoming increasingly clear that this escalating distrust between the top US spies on one hand and the White House on the other, will lead to a vicious circle of less information-sharing and implicitly more distrust until Trump moves from tweet-castigation to treason charges, or alternatively the spooks dig deep into the NSA server’s bag of goodies, and unleash full out mutiny (see John Schindler’s narrative for big details how this may play out).

     

  • How Much Must A Family Earn To Live In Each Major US City

    London-based realtor Nested produced the 2017 Rental Index in conjunction with their recent Real Estate Index. The study illustrates the price of renting per square foot in 10 major US cities and a number of metropolises worldwide. The research conveys the minimum gross salary required to support an individual and a family of four in rented property based on the minimum space recommended for one person, and for four people respectively.

    Some of the key findings:

    • The top three most expensive cities to rent in worldwide are American: San Francisco, New York City and Boston
    • At $1.09 per square foot, Detroit is the cheapest of the American cities included, and is more affordable than Cape Town, Bangkok and Jakarta.
    • New York City and San Francisco are five times more expensive than Detroit, and three times more expensive than Houston

    The study was undertaken to understand the costs associated with renting as an individual and as a family, and to determine whether cities are becoming increasingly unaffordable. The inclusion of the global ranking alongside the US ranking allows easy comparison between the two, and illustrates the relative unaffordability of major US cities compared to other global settlements.

    The price per square foot of property was calculated based upon current market listings for all locations researched, while the minimum space recommended for one person and four people is laid out in guidelines from an urban planning authority. The gross salary guideline was included to help illustrate relative affordability.

    Here are the study’s core findings about the US market.

    • The most expensive city in the United States to rent property is San Francisco, at $4.95 per square foot.
    • To afford to rent the minimal rental space recommended for one person and cover additional living costs in San Francisco, an individual needs a gross income of $85,985.38 per year. 
    • The minimal rental space recommended for a family of four costs $3,942.82 per month in San Francisco. To afford that and cover additional living costs, a gross income of $163,151.17 per year is required. 
    • The most affordable American city in the list is Detroit, where a square foot costs $1.09.
    • To live alone in Detroit and cover additional living costs, an annual salary of only $18,933.96 is required.
    • The afford the minimal space recommended for a family of four and cover additional living costs in Detroit, an income of $35,926.34 is required.
    • A family rental in Detroit is cheaper than a single rental in seven US cities in the list, including Miami, Los Angeles and Seattle.
    • Rental properties in New York City and San Francisco are more than three times more expensive than in Houston, and almost five times more expensive than in Detroit.

    The results for the United States, ranked by the cost of rental per square per foot, are as follows:

    * * *

    Expanding to all global cities:

    • The three most expensive cities to rent globally are all in America: San Francisco, New York City and Boston. 120 global cities were included in the study.
    • Of the cities included in the list, five of the top ten most expensive cities to rent are in the US.
    • The most expensive city outside of the US for rental is Hong Kong, where a annual gross income of $66,530.07 is required to afford the minimum space recommended for one person and living costs.
    • To afford the minimum space recommended for a family of four and cover additional living costs in Hong Kong, an annual income of $126,236.28 is required. 
    • Of the 120 cities included, Cairo is the cheapest city to rent property, at just 28 cents per square foot.
    • To afford the recommended space for one person and cover additional living costs in Cairo, a gross income of $6,130.89 per year is needed.
    • To pay for family rental and additional living costs in Cairo, a gross income of $11,633.11 per year is needed.
    • At $1.09 per square foot, rental in Detroit is cheaper than in Cape Town, Bangkok or Jakarta.

    The top 25 results for the global cities list, ranked by the cost of rental per square per metre, are as follows:

    For the full list, go here.

  • The Globalist Long Game – Redefine Liberty Activism As Evil "Populism"

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    One of the most favored propaganda tactics of establishment elites and the useful idiots they employ in Marxist and cultural-Marxist circles is to relabel or redefine an opponent before they can solidly define themselves.  In other words, elites and Marxists will seek to “brand” you (just as corporations use branding) in the minds of the masses so that they can take away your ability to define yourself as anything else.

    Think of it this way: Say you want to launch an organization called “Movement Blue,” and you and others have gone through great struggle to grow this organization from the ground up.  However, just as your movement is about to achieve widespread recognition, someone else comes along, someone with extensive capital and media influence, and they saturate every outlet with the narrative that your movement is actually more like “Movement Red,” and that Movement Red is a terrible, no-good, bad idea.  They do such a good job, in fact, that millions and millions of people start calling you “Movement Red” without even knowing why, and they begin to believe all the negative associations that this label entails.

    Through the art of negative branding, your enemy has stolen your most precious asset — the ability to present yourself to the public as you really are.

    Negative branding is a form of psychological inoculation.  It is designed to close people’s minds to particular ideas before they actually hear those ideas presented by a true proponent of the ideas.  But beyond that, negative branding can also be used to trick groups and movements into abandoning their original identity.

    For example, the concept of economic freedom for individuals –the freedom from overt government interference or government favoritism for certain people over others, the freedom to compete with ideas and ingenuity to build a better business and a better product, the freedom to retain the fruits of one’s labor — used to be widely referred to as “free markets”, as defined by Adam Smith.  The very basis of free market philosophy was to remove obstruction and economic oppression from the common man in order to inspire a renaissance in innovation and prosperity.  The problem is, you rarely hear anyone but libertarians talk about traditional "free markets" anymore.

    Though Karl Marx did not coin the term “capitalism,” he and his followers (and editors) are indeed guilty of the pejorative version now used.  It has always been Marxist propagandists who have sought to redefine the idea of “free markets” in a negative way, and the use of the term capitalism is how they did it.  They have been so effective in their efforts that today even some free market proponents instead refer to themselves as “capitalists.”

    While “free markets” denote freedom of the common man to pursue a better life through productivity and intelligence and merit, “capitalism” denotes a monstrous and blind pursuit of wealth and power without moral regard.  One gives the impression of fairness, the other gives the impression of tyranny.

    Is there even such an animal as “capitalism?”  I can’t really say.  What I do know is that the system we have today, a hybrid mutation of corporatism and socialism, is certainly NOT a free market system if we are to follow the true definition and the original intent.  Yet, whenever cultural and economic Marxists attack the notion of economic freedom, they use the system we have now as an example of the failures of “free market capitalism.”

    This is the magic of negative branding, and it is used in every facet of social life and geopolitics.

    Now, before I get into the term “populist,” I recognize that people opposed to my position will immediately spring into a tirade about how liberty and sovereignty champions brand those against our ideals “in the exact same way.”  This is not quite true, though.

    When we refer to “globalists” in a negative manner, we are taking a pre-existing label, something that they often call themselves, and pointing out that their philosophy is flawed and highly destructive based on historical evidence and verifiable facts.  We are not seeking to redefine them as anything other than what they already are.  We are merely exposing to the public what they OPENLY promote and believe and then offer our side and our evidence as to why their beliefs are wrong.

    This is not what they do to us.  Instead, globalists and their cronies prefer that the public does not get to hear our views directly from us.  They rarely, if ever, actually use our publications as a source for their attacks on our principles.  They would much rather tell the public what we are and what we believe before they are ever exposed to us.  This is why you will often find that many participants in protest groups at events held by anti-globalists like Ben Shapiro or Milo Yiannopoulos have never actually seen or heard a single speech by the men in question.  They have no idea what we really stand for.  In fact, they protest our speakers, groups and movements based on what they were told we stand for by other biased sources.

    This brings us to “populism.”

    There has been a deep and concerted propaganda campaign taking place against liberty activists, sovereignty champions, anti-globalists, anti-SJW groups, and conservatives in general.  I noticed this particular campaign accelerating at the beginning of 2016, and it was the primary reason why I chose to take a hard stance on my predictions for Brexit passage and a Trump election win.  The propaganda narrative could be summarized as follows:

    Since early 2016 (according to globalists and the mainstream publications featuring their opinions), there has been a rising tide of nationalists and “populists” in western nations.  This sudden surge in “populism” is inexorably tied to the Brexit movement and the support for candidates like Donald Trump.  Populism will overrun the existing “stability” of globalism and cause severe economic crisis in numerous countries.  It finds its roots in the “less educated” portions of the population, as well as in older generations that think they have something to lose if globalism succeeds.  It is also driven by an “irrational fear” of economic change, global interdependence and multiculturalism.  Populists are predominantly naive and desperate for “strongmen” leaders to fight for them.  Some of them are motivated by self interest, while others are motivated by racism.

    You can see these sentiments expressed bluntly in numerous mainstream media outlets.  The Guardian has no qualms about linking the Brexit to “racism” and populism, for example.  The Washington Post also has had no problem linking the Tea Party and Trump supporters to racism and populism as well.

    Beyond the paper-thin accusations of racism, the general thrust of the negative branding is clear; if you are against globalism (or elitism) and its major tenets, then you are a “populist.”  This is reiterated in recent articles from Bloomberg and The Guardian.

    But in such publications, the most egregious argument is the one that is not directly made.  The insinuation is that “populism” is not just defined by a fear of corruption through organized elitism, but that this fear is UNFOUNDED.  Meaning, anyone who argues against the mechanizations of globalists, for instance, is not only redefined as a “populist,” but he/she is also, essentially, ignorant or insane.  See how that works?

    The populist label is often used to describe a political movement built on the cult of personality, a sycophantic love affair with a celebrity dictator that tends to have ulterior motives.  Thus, the philosophical underpinnings of that particular movement are further eroded because they don’t even know why they are doing what they are doing; they are only playing a foolish game of follow the leader.

    So, to recap, according to the establishment and their “press,” conservatives and sovereignty activists are actually “populists.” Our concerns over uncontrolled immigration and open borders are not based on rationalism and historic evidence of social and economic instability as well as the highly evidenced threats of terrorism; they are based on “xenophobia.”

    Our concerns over the increasing fiscal weakness generated by the economic interdependence of globalism and our lack of self reliance are not based on math and logic, but our “lack of understanding” on how interdependence makes everything better.

    Our concerns over rampant organized elitism and the corruption this entails are not based on numerous concrete examples, not to mention exposed documentation and the words of elitists themselves; they are based on a “fantasy world” of “tinfoil hatters” who just make stuff up while consuming heaping helpings of "fake news".

    If this is the case, then I suppose I should fasten my own tinfoil hat tightly and note that this narrative is part of an ongoing long-game by globalists.  They are not attempting to achieve the demonization of conservatives and sovereignty advocates today or tomorrow.  This is about preparing the public for a near future, perhaps five to 10 years from now, after they have sufficiently sabotaged the global economy and scapegoated us for the crisis this will cause.

    Not possible, you say?  By all means, read my article 'The False Economic Recovery Narrative Will Die In 2017' for further explanation.  If we are not careful, we will be redefined not just by establishment propaganda, but by a global calamity that will be gift wrapped with our name on it and tied around our collective necks.

    In the meantime, how do we fight back against this disinformation campaign?

    One factor that a “populist movement” generally does not have is the ability to remain self-critical.  Populism, at least according to the mainstream media, requires a mentality of mass blind faith in a cause that is misunderstood or a leader that is dishonest.  The liberty movement and conservative groups still have some members who are not afraid to point out when we are going astray in our logic or our actions.

    We have not been silenced by our own peers, yet.  Given enough crisis, it is hard to say how people will react.  A major terrorist attack, an economic panic, a war; these kinds of rip-tides can inspire a lot of intolerance for contrary views.  We are not there at this point, and as long as members of our movement are able to retain a critical eye, we will never be “populists.”

    Another method is to refrain from adopting the “branding” that the establishment tries to use against us.  Beware of anyone within our groups and organizations who begins referring to himself or us as “populists” as if this is a label of which we should be proud.

    In the long run, people with ill intent will call us whatever they want to call us.  The real issue is, will those labels stick?  Will we help them to stick by losing our composure and acting the way the propagandists always said we would?

    Negative branding is about burning a hole in the historical record, because memes last far longer than people.  In 100 years, how will we be remembered?  This is what the globalists value most – future impressions of today by generations not yet born.  Because wars are not just fought in one moment over one piece of ground or over one idea; they are fought in ALL moments, for days not yet passed, for the posterity of all ideas, even those not yet thought of.  If we do not fight back with this in mind, winning will be impossible.

  • FBI Reportedly Will Not Pursue Charges Against "Cooperative And Truthful" Mike Flynn

    Amid a day of condemnations and escalating supposition – if authorities conclude that Mr. Flynn knowingly lied to the F.B.I., "it could expose him to a felony charge" – it appears the Flynn story may be about to fade from the news cycle. Exposing The New York Times' "alternative facts" about Flynn, CNN's Jim Sciutto reports The FBI is not expected to pursue charges against Michael Flynn.

    Earlier today, media reports hit that FBI agents interviewed Michael Flynn when he was national security adviser in the first days of the Trump administration about his conversations with the Russian ambassador.

    While it is not clear what he said in his interview, the FBI now adds that investigators "believed that Mr. Flynn was not entirely forthcoming, the officials said." That avenue raises the stakes of what so far has been a political scandal that cost Mr. Flynn his job, and which Sean Spicer explained today was merely a matter of Trump "losing trust" in his Security advisor, because if authorities conclude that Mr. Flynn knowingly lied to the F.B.I., "it could expose him to a felony charge", even though some have questioned how an illegally obtained transcript of his phone conversation could be admissable as evidence in a court of law.

    But now, CNN's Jim Sciutto reports,

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    And even more disappointingly for those calling for his head…

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    Seems fair, The FBI had no problem letting Hillary Clinton off the hook despite numerous attempts to hide the truth.. and from what it seems now, Flynn didn't even do that.

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Today’s News 15th February 2017

  • Top Neocon, Bill Kristol, Exposes His True Undemocratic Feelings During High Moment on Twitter

    Bill Kristol’s father was one of the founders of the neocon movement. Essentially, they were former communists who were loyal to Trotsky who toiled to overthrow Stalin, in an effort to spread communism. After the USSR collapsed, they coopted the GOP and used ‘democracy’ as their call for global revolution, which was essentially code for empire through war.

    Naturally, they’ve been part of the government for a long time, via Kissinger and Brzezinski, but they only truly came out in the open under the idiot Bush.

    Here’s an excellent piece discussing them.

    And now here he is laid bare. Do we need any further proof that these people are a threat to democracy?

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    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Coming Soon To A City Near You: The US Military's Plan To Take Over America

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Our current and past strategies can no longer hold. We are facing environments that the masters of war never foresaw. We are facing a threat that requires us to redefine doctrine and the force in radically new and different ways. The future army will confront a highly sophisticated urban-centric threat that will require that urban operations become the core requirement for the future land-force. The threat is clear. Our direction remains to be defined. The future is urban.”

     

    -“Megacities: Urban Future, the Emerging Complexity,” a Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command

    The U.S. military plans to take over America by 2030.

    No, this is not another conspiracy theory. Although it easily could be.

    Nor is it a Hollywood political thriller in the vein of John Frankenheimer’s 1964 political thriller Seven Days in May about a military coup d’etat.

    Although it certainly has all the makings of a good thriller.

    No, this is the real deal, coming at us straight from the horse’s mouth.

    According to “Megacities: Urban Future, the Emerging Complexity,” a Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command, the U.S. military plans to use armed forces to solve future domestic political and social problems.

    What they’re really talking about is martial law, packaged as a well-meaning and overriding concern for the nation’s security.

    The chilling five-minute training video, obtained by The Intercept through a FOIA request and made available online, paints an ominous picture of the future—a future the military is preparing for—bedeviled by “criminal networks,” “substandard infrastructure,” “religious and ethnic tensions,” “impoverishment, slums,” “open landfills, over-burdened sewers,” a “growing mass of unemployed,” and an urban landscape in which the prosperous economic elite must be protected from the impoverishment of the have nots.

    And then comes the kicker.

    Three-and-a-half minutes into the Pentagon’s dystopian vision of “a world of Robert Kaplan-esque urban hellscapes — brutal and anarchic supercities filled with gangs of youth-gone-wild, a restive underclass, criminal syndicates, and bands of malicious hackers,” the ominous voice of the narrator speaks of a need to “drain the swamps.”

    Drain the swamps.

    Surely, we’ve heard that phrase before?

    Ah yes.

    Emblazoned on t-shirts and signs, shouted at rallies, and used as a rallying cry among Trump supporters, “drain the swamp” became one of Donald Trump’s most-used campaign slogans, along with “build the wall” and “lock her up.”

    Funny how quickly the tides can shift and the tables can turn.

    Whereas Trump promised to drain the politically corrupt swamps of Washington DC of lobbyists and special interest groups, the U.S. military is plotting to drain the swamps of futuristic urban American cities of “noncombatants and engage the remaining adversaries in high intensity conflict within.”

    And who are these noncombatants, a military term that refers to civilians who are not engaged in fighting?

    They are, according to the Pentagon, “adversaries.”

    They are “threats.”

    They are the “enemy.”

    They are people who don’t support the government, people who live in fast-growing urban communities, people who may be less well-off economically than the government and corporate elite, people who engage in protests, people who are unemployed, people who engage in crime (in keeping with the government’s fast-growing, overly broad definition of what constitutes a crime).

    In other words, in the eyes of the U.S. military, noncombatants are American citizens a.k.a. domestic extremists a.k.a. enemy combatants who must be identified, targeted, detained, contained and, if necessary, eliminated.

    Welcome to Battlefield America.

    In the future imagined by the Pentagon, any walls and prisons that are built will be used to protect the societal elite—the haves—from the have-nots.

    We are the have-nots.

    Suddenly it all begins to make sense.

    The events of recent years: the invasive surveillance, the extremism reports, the civil unrest, the protests, the shootings, the bombings, the military exercises and active shooter drills, the color-coded alerts and threat assessments, the fusion centers, the transformation of local police into extensions of the military, the distribution of military equipment and weapons to local police forces, the government databases containing the names of dissidents and potential troublemakers.

    This is how you prepare a populace to accept a police state willingly, even gratefully.

    You don’t scare them by making dramatic changes. Rather, you acclimate them slowly to their prison walls. Persuade the citizenry that their prison walls are merely intended to keep them safe and danger out.

    Desensitize them to violence, acclimate them to a military presence in their communities and persuade them that there is nothing they can do to alter the seemingly hopeless trajectory of the nation.

    Before long, no one will even notice the floundering economy, the blowback arising from military occupations abroad, the police shootings, the nation’s deteriorating infrastructure and all of the other mounting concerns.

    It’s happening already.

    The sight of police clad in body armor and gas masks, wielding semiautomatic rifles and escorting an armored vehicle through a crowded street, a scene likened to “a military patrol through a hostile city,” no longer causes alarm among the general populace.

    Few seem to care about the government’s endless wars abroad that leave communities shattered, families devastated and our national security at greater risk of blowback. Indeed, there were no protests in the streets after U.S. military forces raided a compound in Yemen, killing “at least eight women and seven children, ages 3 to 13.”

    Their tactics are working.

    We’ve allowed ourselves to be acclimated to the occasional lockdown of government buildings, Jade Helm military drills in small towns so that special operations forces can get “realistic military training” in “hostile” territory, and  Live Active Shooter Drill training exercises, carried out at schools, in shopping malls, and on public transit, which can and do fool law enforcement officials, students, teachers and bystanders into thinking it’s a real crisis.

    Still, you can’t say we weren’t warned.

    Back in 2008, an Army War College report revealed that “widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security.” The 44-page report went on to warn that potential causes for such civil unrest could include another terrorist attack, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters.”

    In 2009, reports by the Department of Homeland Security surfaced that labelled right-wing and left-wing activists and military veterans as extremists (a.k.a. terrorists) and called on the government to subject such targeted individuals to full-fledged pre-crime surveillance. Almost a decade later, after spending billions to fight terrorism, the DHS concluded that the greater threat is not ISIS but domestic right-wing extremism.

    Meanwhile, the government has been amassing an arsenal of military weapons for use domestically and equipping and training their “troops” for war. Even government agencies with largely administrative functions such as the Food and Drug Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Smithsonian have been acquiring body armor, riot helmets and shields, cannon launchers and police firearms and ammunition. In fact, there are now at least 120,000 armed federal agents carrying such weapons who possess the power to arrest.

    Rounding out this profit-driven campaign to turn American citizens into enemy combatants (and America into a battlefield) is a technology sector that has been colluding with the government to create a Big Brother that is all-knowing, all-seeing and inescapable. It’s not just the drones, fusion centers, license plate readers, stingray devices and the NSA that you have to worry about. You’re also being tracked by the black boxes in your cars, your cell phone, smart devices in your home, grocery loyalty cards, social media accounts, credit cards, streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon, and e-book reader accounts.

    All of this has taken place right under our noses, funded with our taxpayer dollars and carried out in broad daylight without so much as a general outcry from the citizenry.

    It’s astounding how convenient we’ve made it for the government to lock down the nation.

    So what exactly is the government preparing for?

    Mind you, by “government,” I’m not referring to the highly partisan, two-party bureaucracy of the Republicans and Democrats.

    I’m referring to “government” with a capital “G,” the entrenched Deep State that is unaffected by elections, unaltered by populist movements, and has set itself beyond the reach of the law.

    I’m referring to the corporatized, militarized, entrenched bureaucracy that is fully operational and staffed by unelected officials who are, in essence, running the country and calling the shots in Washington DC, no matter who sits in the White House.

    This is the hidden face of a government that has no respect for the freedom of its citizenry.

    What is the government preparing for? You tell me.

    Better yet, take a look at the Pentagon’s training video.

    It’s only five minutes long, but it says a lot about the government’s mindset, the way its views the citizenry, and the so-called “problems” that the military must be prepared to address in the near future. Even more troubling, however, is what this military video doesn’t say about the Constitution, about the rights of the citizenry, and about the dangers of using the military to address political and social problems.

    The future is here.

    We’re already witnessing a breakdown of society on virtually every front.

    By waging endless wars abroad, by bringing the instruments of war home, by transforming police into extensions of the military, by turning a free society into a suspect society, by treating American citizens like enemy combatants, by discouraging and criminalizing a free exchange of ideas, by making violence its calling card through SWAT team raids and militarized police, by fomenting division and strife among the citizenry, by acclimating the citizenry to the sights and sounds of war, and by generally making peaceful revolution all but impossible, the government has engineered an environment in which domestic violence has become almost inevitable.

    Be warned: in the future envisioned by the military, we will not be viewed as Republicans or Democrats. Rather, “we the people” will be enemies of the state.

    As I make clear in my book, Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we’re already enemies of the state.

    For years, the government has been warning against the dangers of domestic terrorism, erecting surveillance systems to monitor its own citizens, creating classification systems to label any viewpoints that challenge the status quo as extremist, and training law enforcement agencies to equate anyone possessing anti-government views as a domestic terrorist. What the government failed to explain was that the domestic terrorists would be of the government’s own making, whether intentional or not.

    “We the people” have become enemy #1.

  • NYTimes Reports Trump Aides' "Repeated Contact" With Russian Intel Officials, Admits No Collusion Discovered

    As The White House tries to put the Flynn disappointment behind them, The New York Times appears to be resurrecting an old story with a new angle to keep the 'blame the Russians' narrative alive. Following FISA court approval (to spy on Trump's campaign), intercepted calls reportedly show "repeated contact" between Trump advisor Paul Manafort and senior Russian intelligence officials… but reveal no collusion.

    Intercepted phone calls and phone records show that several aides and allies to President Trump's campaign were in repeated contact with senior Russian intelligence officials, according to the New York Times. As The Hill explains,

    Current and former officials that spoke with the Times would not give many details, and it's not clear exactly who, both from the U.S. and Russia, were part of the conversations or what they talked about, including if discussions centered on Trump himself.

     

    Officials told the publication that they have seen no evidence of collusion in regards to hacking or the election.

     

    Three of the four current and former officials who spoke with the Times said the contacts were discovered during the same time that U.S. intelligence agencies were investigating Russia's extensive hacking campaign, later determined to be aimed at helping Trump win the White House.

     

    The Times' sources said Paul Manafort, Trump's former campaign chairman, was picked up on the calls. Manafort left the campaign after several months as reports swirled about his business ties in Russia and the Ukraine.

    The officials would not name any other Trump aides or supporters captured in the conversations.

    As a reminder, it was not just Paul Manafort that was involved in FBI probes, but Tony Podesta – the brother of Hillary Clinton's campaign director John Podesta – who had set up secret meetinsg woth Ukraine officials.

    Manafort, who has not been charged with any crimes, exclaims To Britain's Telegraph that "this is absurb,"

    “I have no idea what this is referring to. I have never knowingly spoken to Russian intelligence officers, and I have never been involved with anything to do with the Russian government or the Putin administration or any other issues under investigation today.”

     

    Mr. Manafort added, “It’s not like these people wear badges that say, ‘I’m a Russian intelligence officer.’"

    Several of Mr. Trump’s associates, like Mr. Manafort, have done business in Russia, and it is not unusual for American businessmen to come in contact with foreign intelligence officials, sometimes unwittingly, in countries like Russia and Ukraine, where the spy services are deeply embedded in society. Law enforcement officials did not say to what extent the contacts may have been about business.

    Finally, buried deep in The New York Times' story – which is sure to run the narrative during tomorrow's media cycle (and already is a hot topic of conjecture on CNN) – the author admits, rather sheepishly that…

    The intelligence agencies then sought to learn whether the Trump campaign was colluding with the Russians on the hacking or other efforts to influence the election.

     

    The officials interviewed in recent weeks said that, so far, they had seen no evidence of such cooperation.

    Which confirms what The FBI said back in November.

    *  *  *

    The bottom line here is that the only incremental news is that Manafort knowingly or unknowingly came into contact with Russian intelligence officials during his business dealings but no election-collusion was discovered. We leave it to Ari Fleischer to sum it all up perfectly…

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  • Democrats At Pennsylvania College Invite Students To Wear White Pins As Reminder Of Their "White Privilege"

    Students at Elizabethtown College in Pennsylvania are being encouraged by the campus Democrat club to wear a white pin for a year to help them reflect on their “white privilege and the impact white privilege has on people of color.”  The campaign was launched over the weekend by the Elizabethtown College Democrats, who say it aims to make students at the small and private liberal arts college in Pennsylvania more introspective about issues of race, especially in their predominantly white region of Lancaster County.

    Reached by College Fix via email, the President of the Elizabethtown College Democrats said that no matter how accepting white people are it “doesn’t stop them from being part of a system based on centuries of inequality.”

    “Discussions about race are often perceived as being only open to people of color, but I think it is just as important for white people to partake in conversations about race,” Aileen Ida, president of the College Democrats, told The College Fix via email.

     

    Ida said white people are continually allowing for a societal system of oppression to occur unless they work against it. The white puzzle piece pin represents racial struggles of all sorts.

     

    “No matter how accepting someone is, that doesn’t stop them from being part of a system based on centuries of inequality,” she said, adding the campaign transcends politics.

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    Asked if all white students are ‘privileged’, Ida quickly dropped some of the knowledge she’s managed to accumulate in here vast 18ish years of worldly experiences by responding with a simple, “yes”…what more is there to say really?  While conceding that she doesn’t think all whites are socioeconomically privileged, Ida, to our complete shock, declined to cite specific examples of white privilege…way to act on your convictions supported by carefully considered facts and figures, Ida.

    She also clarified that it’s not just white students who can wear the pins, that students of all races should take part to start a campuswide discussion that crosses racial divides.

     

    Yet, she notes most people of color already have to live with racism while white people don’t.

     

    “I believe that this [inherent white privilege] can be seen in the day-to-day life of people of color versus the day-to-day life of white people,” Ida said. “Most people of color don’t have a choice but to consider how their race affects their life on a daily basis, this is not true for most white people.”

    Meanwhile, a Facebook post by the “Etown College Dems” helped to shed some additional light on the effort.

    The Elizabethtown College Democrats are proud to announce a campaign being launched this weekend! This project, which is slightly modified for our use, was started by a ELCA Lutheran Pastor from Wisconsin named Barb Girod. Barb made a commitment to wear a white puzzle piece pin every day for a year to force herself to think about her white privilege and the impact white privilege has on people of color. This project, along with ours, forces everybody to think about racial issues people face daily.

     

    The project sponsored by the Elizabethtown College Democrats will follow Barb’s inspiring initiative to create the conversation greatly needed in Central Pennsylvania. Students on campus and in the community are encouraged to join our campaign to think about one thing – how race affects their life, whether directly or indirectly. Following the launch of our pin campaign, a sister campaign will be launched where students have the opportunity to anonymously tell personal stories about how race affects their everyday lives.

     

    There will be a kick-off at the Mosaic House (346 E. Orange Street, Elizabethtown, PA) Sat., Feb. 11 at 7 p.m. where the project will be explained in full and guest speakers will present on the topic of racial privilege and the importance of such a conversation. There will be food and drinks! This event is free and open to the public.

    And, our parting thoughts…

    Full Retard

  • Michael Moore Melts Down; Tells Trump To "Resign By Morning" Or Face "Impeachment You Russian Traitor"

    Michael Moore, the ultra-liberal documentary filmmaker who infamously predicted a Trump victory well before election night last November by stunningly calling Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania for the Republican nominee, has, over the past 24 hours, decided to broadcast his latest nervous breakdown over Twitter for all to see. 

    It all started with the following tweet storm posted by Moore in the wee hours of the morning saying that, among other things, “Flynn DID NOT make that Russian call on his own” but rather “was INSTRUCTED to do so.”  Moore went on to insist that Flynn was just the first of several senior Trump advisors that would inevitably be fired and predicted that “Miller & Bannon” would be next before calling on Trump himself to “Resign by morning!”

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    And, lest you thought he was just joking and/or slept off his temporary “mental incapacitation” and decided to move on with his life, Moore just lit up the Twittersphere again this afternoon asking Trump “What part of “vacate you Russian traitor” don’t you understand?” while threatening that “We can do this the easy way (you resign), or the hard way (impeachment).”

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    But, while we certainly respect his November prognostication and admire his tenacity, we suspect his calls for a Trump resignation may be premature…just a hunch.

  • Judge Rules Health Insurance Companies Matter More Than Taxpayers

    Submitted by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute,

    Largely overlooked last week in the wake of President Donald Trump’s court battle was another controversial judicial ruling.

    On Thursday the US Court of Claims rewarding Moda Health, an Oregon-based health insurer, $214 million for losses it took participating in the high risk insurance pools established under the Affordable Care Act. The dispute came after Republicans eliminated funding for tax payer subsidies to those firms that lost money writing insurance for high risk individuals.

    As Judge Thomas Wheeler wrote:

    The Court finds that the Government made a promise in the risk corridors program that it has yet to fulfill. Today, the Court directs the Government to fulfill that promise. After all, to say to [Moda], 'The joke is on you. You shouldn't have trusted us,' is hardly worthy of our great government.

    Of course history shows that this behavior is quite characteristic of "our great government."

    After all, Obamacare itself was sold to the public based on multiple (and intentional) lies. These included, the cost of Obamacare and the impact it would have on individuals pre-existing insurance coverage, as well as their ability to keep their doctor. The Supreme Court was only able to maintain Obamacare by interpreting the individual mandate as a tax, after the legislation’s defenders explicitly argued it wasn’t.

    The result of all of this was government effectively telling its citizens, "The joke is on you. You shouldn’t have trusted us."

    Of course it is not Moda Health’s fault that government lied through its teeth, and it is easy to find sympathy in their plight. As they argued in this case, the company only “aggressively” engaged in the ACA’s high risk insurance pools because they had an expectation to be compensated by government, as initially outlined in the law. As such, the company has been suffering severe losses and almost went into receivership based on their dire fiscal situation.

    Yet it is not the Obama Administration that will be left paying Moda Health hundreds of millions of dollars, but the taxpayers who themselves were victims of fraud. Further, since Moda is just the first of many health insurers suing the government of the change in policy, if this precedent continues the costs to taxpayers will end up being billions of dollars.

    At the end of the day, Moda was not forced to enter the high risk market and did so knowing this was a highly controversial piece of legislation that was subject to change, and with a government that has a history of not upholding its promises. Just as contracts based on Ponzi schemes and other fraudulent forms of financing are not held up in court, Moda Health and other health insurance companies should not be entitled to the money Obamacare’s victims.

    All last week’s court ruling demonstrated was that the interests of health insurance companies are to be protected at the expense of the American people. Unfortunately, that mindset also explains how America’s health system became what it is today.

     

  • Detroit 'Wins' Award For Most Unhealthy City In The U.S.; Here's Where Your City Ranks

    A couple of years ago, in the midst of its bankruptcy proceedings, we posted a series of stunning pictures illustrating the “Death And Decay Of Detroit.”  Once a beacon of America’s manufacturing prowess, a series of time lapsed pictures revealed how, in just a few years following the ‘great recession’ of 2008, the once vibrant metropolis became the poster child for urban decay. 

    Unfortunately, at least according to a new study from WalletHub, Detroit’s crumbling commercial and residential infrastructure isn’t the only thing deteriorating rapidly in “America’s Comeback City.”  The study, which ranks America’s 150 largest cities based on overall health, pegged Detroit ‘dead’ last. 

    Of course, in many ways, the map of America’s most healthy cities mimics an electoral college map with the Northeast and West Coast ranking generally more healthy while residents of the Southeast and Texas suffered the consequences of their love for fried foods.

    //d2e70e9yced57e.cloudfront.net/wallethub/embed/31072/geochart.html

    Source: WalletHub

     

    Meanwhile, the map of “least healthy” cities is pretty much the inverse of the following map of the “fattest” cities.

    //d2e70e9yced57e.cloudfront.net/wallethub/embed/10532/geochart-obesity4.html

    Source: WalletHub

     

     

    Among other things, the health of America’s metropolitan areas was ranked by the prevalence of obese residents and access and health and wellness facilities at reasonable costs.

    To reach their findings, WalletHub graded each city using 34 categories as metrics along with a specific weight for each category. The categories were split among four groups that accounted for 25 points each: health care, food, fitness, and green space. The higher the score, the healthier the city.

     

    Categories considered in the study included mental health counselors per capita, cost of medical visit, and quality of public hospitals for health care; healthy restaurants per capita, share of obese residents, and produce consumption for categories under food; fitness clubs per capita, weight loss centers per capital, and share of residents who engage in any physical activity for categories in fitness; and quality of parks, bike score, and walking trails per capita among the categories for green space.

    And here are your top and bottom 10 most/least healthy cities.  Unsurprisingly, the health conscious, liberal bastions of California dominate the most healthy cities while Texas and the Southeast dominated the least healthy cities.

    Healthy Cities

     

    Apparently people in CA, OR and WA love to eat their fruits and vegetables while the folks of LA, AL, MS and AR are still looking for a viable way to deep fry their strawberries before partaking.

    Healthy Cities

    But, keep you head up Detroit…we’re sure things will turn around for you at some point.

  • Mayor de Blasio Paradrops Leaflets Over Schools: "We Will Not Turn Our Back On Immigrant Brothers & Sisters"

    In what appears to be an effort to quell the fear rising in the 'legal' immigrant community about President Trump's 'illegal' immigration policies, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio – not one to shy away from scare-mongering that very fear into 'legal' immigrants – has leaflet-bombed the city's public schools reassuring 'immigrants' that they will not be bothered by President Trump’s 'illegal' immigration efforts.

    "The City of New York supports all its residents. Everyone, including undocumented immigrants, can access most City services, such as going to school or using the healthcare system or other City services.

     

    City employees will not ask about immigration status unless it is necessary to do their jobs. They must keep immigration status information confidential."

    Quick translation: [undocumented] = [illegal] but the former connotes no ill-will and implied they are pending documentation whereas the latter is what it is – the immigrants are in the country illegally, the noting of which will likely hurt someone's feelings.

    Full leaflet below:

    h/t Breaking911.com

    As Mayor Bill de Blasio complained when President Trump's executive order was issued:

    "As an American and the grandson of immigrants I am profoundly saddened by the President’s Executive Order on immigration issued today. The United States has been a beacon of hope to the world. We are a country founded on the belief of religious pluralism and equality. Today the President sent a shamefully different message. He has temporarily suspended nearly all refugee admissions, indefinitely banned refugee admissions from Syria, and imposed a 90-day ban on all immigration from a number of Muslim-majority countries. These policies do not reflect the values of the United States or of New York City. We must continue to embrace refugees in need who are victims of terror, not terrorists. We must protect and celebrate religious pluralism. In this great city of immigrants we will remain true to our values and always welcome all who yearn to breathe free."

    Presumably his grand-parents were 'legal' immigrants?

  • What Catalyst Will Start The Next Bear Market: Here Is Wall Street's Response

    In the latest monthly Fund Managers Survey conducted by Bank of America, virtually none of the biggest “tail risks” noted by Wall Street’s smart money (the 175 respondents to the survey collectively run a total of $543 billion) in February was touched upon in January, suggesting Wall Street has a whole new set of things that keep it up at night.

    As the following chart shows, when asked what the biggest ‘tail risks’ are this month, 36% responded European elections raising disintegration risk; 32% said Trade war; while only 13% said “Crash in global bond markets.”

    On the other hand, another notable, recurding question: “what do you think is the most crowded trade”, lead to similar responses as those seen last month: a vast majority 41% said being long the US Dollar, 14% said shorting government bonds (a modest increase from the prior month), and only 13% said being long US/EU corporate bonds.

    But the most interesting question was one we had not noticed before in the BofA survey, namely “What will be the most likely catalyst to cause an end to the 8-year equity bull market?

    The responses: “protectionism” = 34%, “higher rates” = 28%, “financial event” = 18%, “weaker EPS” = 15%.

    A follow up question asked “What economic outcome do you expect new “populist policies” to induce?” The answers suggested a curious split – on one hand Wall Street has voted that Trump’s policies would be beneficial for stocks as seen by yet another all time high in the S&P; on the other half, more than half of respondents said that should Trump truly unleash his “populist policies”, the outcome would be either stagflation, recession, or stagnation. Go figure.

    In this context, another interesting question – and answers – when BofA asked “Which of the following investments would perform best if the world shifted decisively toward protectionism?” the answer was clear.

    Finally, one tangential if very important question in this age of rising rates: “What level of sustained 10-year Treasury yields would cause an equity bear market?” The answer is that – for now at least – yields are too low to hurt stocks, with 64% saying that 10-year Treasury yields of 3.5%-4% required for equity bear market.

    * * *

    As an added bonus, BofA’s Michael Hartnett says anyone who is brave enough to be a contrarian to the prevailing thought on Wall Street, i.e., a contrarian macro bear (expecting weaker growth) would sell banks, US dollar, Japan, and buy bonds, utilities, staples. Meanwhile the contrarian macro bull (expecting higher inflation) would reduce cash, sell REITs, tech, and buy sterling, EM, industrials.

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Today’s News 14th February 2017

  • 5 Stinging Trump Quotes About The Fed

    Fed chief Janet Yellen will testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. She is likely to receive a frosty reception from the Republicans emboldened by President Trump’s stinging remarks about the Federal Reserve and its current chair. Take a look…

    1

    “Janet Yellen is highly political”

    November 3, 2015

    The public feud began in November 2015 when then-Republican nominee Donald Trump accused the Fed of doing President Obama’s bidding by keeping interest rates low. Speaking at a news conference at Trump Tower, he said Obama “wants to be out playing golf in a year from now and he wants to be doing other things and he doesn't want to see a big bubble burst during his administration.”

     

    2

    “When her time is up, I would most likely replace her”

    May 5, 2016

    Trump said he would probably replace Janet Yellen when her four-year term expires (which is in February 2018). In an interview with CNBC, he said “people that I know have high regard for her, but she is not a Republican.” However, there was some common ground. Trump called himself a “low interest rate person,” saying a strong dollar would cause “major problems” for the U.S. economy.

     

    3

    The Fed has created a "very false economy"

    September 5, 2016

    Four months later, Trump does a U-turn and says interest rates “are going to have to change”. Speaking on the campaign trail, he claimed the Fed was “keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn't go down.” The billionaire also called the stock market “artificial.”

     

    4

    “She’s doing what Obama wants her to do”

    September 12, 2016

    Trump again questioned the Fed’s independence, saying the central bank is propping up the stock market to keep Obama happy. In an interview with CNBC, Trump said “any increase [in interest rates] at all will be a very, very small increase because they want to keep the market up so Obama goes out and let the new guy … raise interest rates … and watch what happens in the stock market.”

     

    5

    Yellen should be “ashamed of herself”

    September 12, 2016

    Then it gets super personal! In the same interview, Trump said Yellen should be “ashamed” of what she’s doing to the country. He said American savers are feeling the pain of low interest rates: “they saved their money [and] they cut down on their mortgages, … and now they're practically getting zero interest on the money.”

    Of course, President Trump isn’t the only Republican who has criticised the Fed. Long-time critic Kentucky senator Rand Paul has been calling for an audit of the Federal Reserve for many, many years. Meanwhile, Texas senator Ted Cruz has blamed the central bank for causing the Great Recession.

    Yellen’s testimony begins at 10:00 a.m. ET on February 14, 2017.

    Follow LIVE coverage of FOMC on FinancialJuice.com

  • "What The F**k Is Wrong With You America" – Moby Claims Trump Dossier 100% Real, War With Iran Looms

    After last night's "Agent Orange" debacle at The Grammy's, it appears the music-erati are jealous of their Hollywood peers and ratched amplifier on hysteria up to '11' today. Having asked America "what the fuck is wrong with you" shortly after electing President Trump, veteran electronic music star Moby shared a Facebook post where he claims his "D.C. friends" confirmed the Trump dossier is "100% real"

    By way of background, here is Moby expressing his dis-satisfaction at the deplorables' voting in November

    "As a life-long progressive i'm supposed to be diplomatic and understanding, but America, what the fuck is wrong with you?" he wrote in the open letter shared with Billboard. "But then I ask myself, very sadly, why am I surprised?"

     

    Moby continued: "This is the America who has now elected a dim-witted, racist, misogynist. A dim-witted, racist, misogynist who has ruined businesses and has no policy proposals other than 'build a wall.' I guess there will be some cold, bitter schadenfreude in spending the next 4 years watching middle america wake up to the fact that donald trump is an incompetent con-man.

     

    "The rust belt jobs won't come back. the wall won't get built. and Hillary won't get locked up. Donald Trump will be impeached, or end his presidency with single digit approval ratings; and hopefully, somehow, america will finally wake up the fact that republicans are, simply, terrible."

    And today as Moby explains (seemingly incapable of using Capital letters)… (bolding added)

    after spending the weekend talking to friends who work in dc i can safely(well, 'accurately'…) post the following things:

     

    1-the russian dossier on trump is real. 100% real. he's being blackmailed by the russian government, not just for being peed on by russian hookers, but for much more nefarious things.

     

    2-the trump administration is in collusion with the russian government, and has been since day one.

     

    3-the trump administration needs a war, most likely with iran. at present they are putting u.s warships off the coast of iran in the hope that iran will attack one of the ships and give the u.s a pretense for invasion.

     

    4-there are right wing plans to get rid of trump. he's a drain on their fundraising and their approval ratings, and the gop and koch brothers and other u.s right wing groups are planning to get rid of trump.

     

    5-intelligence agencies around the world, and here in the u.s, are horrified by the incompetence of the trump administration, and are working to present information that will lead to high level firings and, ultimately, impeachment.

     

    i'm writing these things so that when/if these things happen there will be a public record beforehand.

     

    these are truly baffling and horrifying times, as we have an incompetent president who is essentially owned by a foreign power.

     

    -moby

    "Baffling" indeed Mr. Moby (or is it just Moby?)

    As you can imagine, Facebook 'friends' who followed Mody were a little quizzicial of his evidence…

    Carlos Godinez – "Your friends who work in D.C." Let me guess, Starbucks?

     

    Soren Le Goff – Moby your so ignorant it hurts, stop posting propaganda.

     

    Frankie Lenaghan – You have lost the plot mate.

     

    Eddy G. Munoz – Moby, please get back to the lab and get to work. You are losing your mind. Now you are having delusions of being privy to information that would be considers confidential.

     

    Brady Spenrath – I know you mean well, and I agree with your intent, but just posting unverified rumors with no sources or evidence to back that up is as harmful as the White House staff making stuff up. What happened to "When they go low, we go high"?

    The question we have for Mark Zuckerberg – is this 'fake news'? Should this kind of information be shared on your social network? What if a so-called self-identified, non-progressive celebrity allegedly claimed to have alleged proof that Nancy Pelosi was in fact the alleged Russian hooker pissing all over Trump in an alleged Moscow hotel? (Could be? We have alleged friends in D.C. who said it's possible).

  • Kurt Schlichter Shoves Alinsky's "Rules For Radicals" Right Back In "The Left's Ugly Face"

    Authored by Kurt Schlichter via Townhall.com,

    The Left is getting massively out-Alinsky'd, and the hilarious thing is that this band of withered hippies, unemployable millennial safe-space cases, and unlovable and unshaven libfeminists don’t even know it.

    Oh, their masters sure know it. Soros is bitterly having to ramp up his infusions of blood money to keep his community-organized “grassroots” movements afloat. The less dumb ones among the lying dinosaur media are panicking as their influence fades, and Chuck Schumer is enduring such a non-stop parade of serial humiliations that if the Senate were a penitentiary, he’d be McConnell’s prison Mitch.

    The Leftist mafia godmaleidentifyingparents pulling the strings of the Marxist Muppets know the score – they are losing. And it’s awesome. Because, finally, the Right has taken Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals and shoved it up where #TheResistance don’t shine.

    Thank you, Andrew Breitbart. You yelled “Follow me!” and led a movement that had previously been dominated by doofy wonks and bow-tied geeks over the top in a glorious bayonet charge against the paper tiger liberal elite. The Left hadn’t taken a good, solid gut punch since Ronald Reagan turned the Oval Office keys over to the wimpcons who found fighting Democrats uncouth because conflict made for awkward luncheons down at the club. Bizarrely, the guy who picked up the standard and carried it forward when our beloved commander was felled by fate was a New York billionaire with no identifiable ideological foundation who instinctively understood the one thing that could make up for his other failings: He knows how to fight liberals and win. For Donald Trump and the revitalized conservative movement, Alinsky's book isn’t some dusty old commie tome – it’s a lifestyle.

    Alinsky’s Rules are relatively simple, and they make sense when you are fighting a conventional opponent with an interest in maintaining the status quo. The Rules are terrific for dealing with an old-school conservative guy who drives a Buick, enjoys gardening, and doesn’t want any trouble. They aren’t so effective against conservative brawlers who like to punch, and who aren’t too fussy about whether it’s with tweets or with fists.

    The Rules are not some magic incantation; they are simply some tactical principles that work in certain kinds of fights against certain kinds of opponents – particularly ones willing to unilaterally disarm in the face of an unprincipled enemy. But once the secret is out, it’s relatively easy to turn them around on an enemy that is so stupid it thinks it’s going to gain widespread acceptance among normal Americans by dressing up as genitalia. That’s why the thirteen classic Alinsky Rules are playing out right now in a way the Left did not expect.

    Rule 1: “Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have.” Actually, we now have a lot of power. No, we don’t have direct power over liberal bastions like Hollywood, the media and academia, but by threatening to use governmental levers of power to impact their tax breaks, copyright laws, and subsidies, we can pound them into submission. And Trump is clearly willing to use all his powers to beat the living liberalism out of our enemy.

     

    Wait, this is where the Fredocons loosen their bow ties and stutter, “Why…we can’t…Professor Wellington Wimpenheimer IV would not approve…it’s so mean…oh, well I never!”

     

    Wake up. Man up. If you ever want to win (and maybe someday even kiss a girl) you need to get real. They hate us, and we either win or we spend the rest of our miserable lives as Boxer the Horse, slaving away to fund the welfare state under the lash of the Left until it decides it’s time to pack us off to the glue factory.

     

    Rule 2: “Never go outside the expertise of your people” and Rule 3: “Whenever possible, go outside the expertise of the enemy.Stupid GOP wonkcons want to fight to where the liberals are strong, like on entitlements. Trump is smart enough to fight where liberals are weak, like on the economy. And he’s going to throw down some serious jujitsu by doing a liberal thing – infrastructure spending – in a conservative way. He's a developer – he knows how to build stuff, and he will freak the Left out by delivering concrete results (not the least of them, a wall) where liberals (for whom “infrastructure” means giving our money to their deadbeat constituents) never actually build stuff anymore. As a conservative, I’m not thrilled about “infrastructure” spending. But as a conservative insurgent who wants to see the Left on its collective collectivist back, twitching like a dying roach, I’m thrilled.

     

    Rule 4: “Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules.” This is not so much about pointing out the lies and hypocrisy that constitute Leftist orthodoxy – the vicious racism they deny is racism because it’s anti-white, the racism against non-whites who refuse to serve a liberal master, the sexism against women who think babies should be actually be born, and so on. It’s about not letting them tie us into knots by using our morals and values as bear traps to immobilize and neutralize us. Fortunately, most of us have discovered how losing our superficial “political values” helps us regain our freedom. We have embraced the power of not #caring. And liberals have no idea what to do when they shout “Trump is a meanie,” and we shrug, smile, and bust out with an impromptu interpretive dance to celebrate Neil Gorsuch.

     

    Rule 5: “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.” Actually, the AR15 a more potent weapon, but ridicule will do as long as the Left doesn't try to make good on its countless threats of violence and tyranny. Regardless, we finally we have a conservative corps that is willing to mock the members of that motley collection of pompous, inept, lying jerks we call the Democrat Party and its media catamite corps. When they turn around and try to mock us back, well, we aren’t watching their late night hack comics anymore, and frankly they can make all the jokes they want. The punchline is still going to be “And then the Republicans repealed Obamacare.”

     

    Rule 6: “A good tactic is one your people enjoy.” I’m having fun watching the liberals lose. How about you?

     

    Rule 7: “A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag.” I don’t know – I doubt I am ever going to be tired of so much #winning.

     

    Rule 8: “Keep the pressure on. Never let up.Remember the Trump outrage du jour a couple days ago when we were supposed to be on the verge of war with Australia? Well, Down Under’s kangaroos and giant scary spiders still wander freely, and we’ve long since moved on. President Trump has been busy owning the news cycle with appointments, executive orders, and the occasional squirrel-sighting tweet that sends the media chasing off on a rodent-seeking tangent. Oh no, Kellyanne Conway said to buy Ivanka’s stuff – if I ever cared (and I never did), I’ve already moved on to giggling about the progressive freak out over ICE being allowed to do its job again.

     

    Rule 9: “The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.” No, Alinsky was wrong. The thing itself is much, much worse – as Democrats will find out when President Trump signs the law mandating national concealed carry reciprocity.

     

    Rule 10: “The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition.” Democrats are trying to do the massive resistance thing again, and it’s going about as well as when they tried the massive resistance thing against integration. It may arouse libs in blue cities and on soon-to-be-defunded college campuses, but normals are getting tired of the nonstop Leftist nonsense. See Rule 7. Conversely, Trump’s nonstop series of orders, appointments, and policies seems to be helping him – mostly because they are popular.

     

    Rule 11: “If you push a negative hard enough, it will push through and become a positive.” Unhinged Leftist obstruction, including violence, is driving people right. However, leftist harping on Trump’s rough edges seems to be backfiring – instead of “Oh my, what a brute!” people seem to be saying “Good. He fights.”

     

    Rule 12: “The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative.” Trump has a program and it’s popular. What’s the Democrats’ program? “Give us more of your money so we can buy votes from welfare cheats, and then we’ll lecture you on your privilege?

     

    The Democrats have no meaningful policies because their entire focus is on them regaining and keeping power – that’s their desired end state, not a country made great again, and that’s why they get no traction anywhere on the map outside of the dysfunctional blue spots. Watch for then to eventually seriously propose secession by the liberal states – after the last few months, I’ve been tempted to move my novel People’s Republic, about California ignoring the admonition to never go full Venezuela, over to the nonfiction section.

     

    Rule 13: “Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.Well, they try to. They try to make Trump a demonic chimera composed of bits and pieces of Hitler, Mussolini, and more Hitler, and he just doesn’t care. We don’t care, because we know what they are really saying is that we normals are the monsters, that it’s not Trump governing that is illegitimate but that it is we normals having a voice in governing ourselves that is illegitimate.

    And now we are woke, as the ridiculous Left would put it, to the Left’s tired Alinsky antics. We see it’s all a lie. It’s all a scam. And we aren’t playing the game by their rules anymore.

  • Mike Flynn Resigns As National Security Advisor

    As many had expected, multiple sources have now confirmed that former General Mike Flynn has resigned from his role as President Trump's national security advisor. The White House has confirmed that Lt. General Joseph Keith Kellogg, Jr. has been appointed Acting National Security Advisor.

    President Donald J. Trump Names Lt. General Joseph Keith Kellogg, Jr. as Acting National Security Advisor, Accepts Resignation of Lt. General Michael Flynn

     

    President Donald J. Trump has named Lt. General Joseph Keith Kellogg, Jr. (Ret) as Acting National Security Advisor following the resignation of Lt. General Michael Flynn (Ret).

     

    General Kellogg is a decorated veteran of the United States Army, having served from 1967 to 2003, including two tours during the Vietnam War, where he earned the Silver Star, the Bronze Star with "V" device, and the Air Medal with "V" device.

     

     

    He served as the Commander of the 82nd Airborne Division from 1997 to 1998. Prior to his retirement, General Kellogg was Director of the Command, Control, Communications, and Computers Directorate under the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

    The full text of General Flynn's resignation letter is below:

    February 13, 2017

     

    In the course of my duties as the incoming National Security Advisor, I held numerous phone calls with foreign counterparts, ministers, and ambassadors. These calls were to facilitate a smooth transition and begin to build the necessary relationships between the President, his advisors and foreign leaders. Such calls are standard practice in any transition of this magnitude.

     

    Unfortunately, because of the fast pace of events, I inadvertently briefed the Vice President Elect and others with incomplete information regarding my phone calls with the Russian Ambassador. I have sincerely apologized to the President and the Vice President, and they have accepted my apology.

     

    Throughout my over thirty three years of honorable military service, and my tenure as the National Security Advisor, I have always performed my duties with the utmost of integrity and honesty to those I have served, to include the President of the United States.

     

    I am tendering my resignation, honored to have served our nation and the American people in such a distinguished way.

     

    I am also extremely honored to have served President Trump, who in just three weeks, has reoriented American foreign policy in fundamental ways to restore America's leadership position in the world.

     

    As I step away once again from serving my nation in this current capacity, I wish to thank President Trump for his personal loyalty, the friendship of those who I worked with throughout the hard fought campaign, the challenging period of transition, and during the early days of his presidency.

     

    I know with the strong leadership of President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence and the superb team they are assembling, this team will go down in history as one of the greatest presidencies in U.S. history, and I firmly believe the American people will be well served as they all work together to help Make America Great Again.

     

    Michael T. Flynn, LTG (Ret)
    Assistant to the President / National Security Advisor

    *  *  *

    As we detailed previously, after last night's news that Trump (and Steve Bannon) were actively deciding whether to fire National Security Advisor Mike Flynn over the recent scandal involving his [hone calls with Russian ambassador, Sergey Kislyak, discussing the Russian sanction something he denied publicly on several occasions, yet which now appears to have been the case, the ice below Flynn had got thinner this afternoon when the Trump administration for the second consecutive day sent conflicting signals in its support for Flynn amid uncertainty whether Flynn misled Mike Pence about his conversation with Russia’s U.S. ambassador. About an hour after White House counselor Kellyanne Conway said in a television interview that Flynn “does enjoy the full confidence of the president," press secretary Sean Spicer released a statement saying President Donald Trump is “evaluating” the situation involving his top security aide. Trump “is speaking to Vice President Pence relative to the conversation the vice president had with General Flynn and also speaking to various other people about what he considers the single most important subject there is, our national security,” Spicer said in an e-mailed statement. One day earlier, Trump adviser Stephen Miller declined to defend Flynn or say whether his job was safe. Miller, appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” said Flynn had served the country admirably, but that “It’s not for me to tell you what’s in the president’s mind.”

    Now, following the latest report in the WaPo, the young Trump administration may have no choice but to make Flynn the first casualty. According to the Bezos-owned publication, the acting attorney general informed the Trump White House late last month that she believed Michael Flynn had misled senior administration officials about the nature of his communications with the Russian ambassador to the United States, "and warned that the national security adviser was potentially vulnerable to Russian blackmail." The message was delivered by Sally Yates and was prompted by concerns that ­Flynn, when asked about his calls and texts with the Russian diplomat, had told Vice ­President-elect Mike Pence and others that he had not discussed the Obama administration sanctions on Russia for its interference in the 2016 election. It is unclear what the White House counsel, Donald McGahn, did with the information.

    Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and former CIA Director John Brennan also reportedly shared Yates’ concerns about Flynn. The pair believed “Flynn had put himself in a compromising position”, thinking that Pence had a right to know that he had been misled, and agreed with Yates’ decision to warn the White House. One official told the Post all three officials believed Pence had a right to know Flynn had possibly misled him about his talks with Kislyak. Furthermore, current and former officials told the Post they believed Flynn deceived the vice president, adding they could not rule out the possibility he acted with the knowledge of other transition officials.  Yates, who was then the deputy attorney general, considered Flynn’s comments during an intercepted phone call with Kislyak last December “highly significant” and “potentially illegal.” The WaPo adds that an official familiar with Yates’ thinking told the Post she suspected Flynn may have violated the Logan Act, which prohibits U.S. citizens from interfering in diplomatic disputes with another nation. Trump fired Yates last month, after she refused to have the DOJ defend his temporary ban on visitors from seven Muslim-majority nations in court. Making matters worse – for Trump – is that a senior Trump administration official said that the White House was aware of the matter, adding that “we’ve been working on this for weeks.”

    The final nail in Flynn's coffin is that according to a report in the NYT, the Army has been investigating whether Mr. Flynn received money from the Russian government during a trip he took to Moscow in 2015, according to two defense officials. Such a payment might violate the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, which prohibits former military officers from receiving money from a foreign government without consent from Congress. The defense officials said there was no record that Mr. Flynn, a retired three-star Army general, filed the required paperwork for the trip.

    If confirmed, and if Flynn indeed lied, Trump will have no choice but to let him go.

    *  *  *

    And indeed it appears it is confirmed, following his apology to Vice President Pence and other White House officials, CNN, Bloomberg, and NBC News confirm sources that Mike Flynn has officialy resigned

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    And as AP reports, national security adviser Michael Flynn has resigned after reports he misled Trump administration officials about his contacts with Russia's ambassador to the U.S.

    Flynn's departure less than one month into the Trump administration marks an extraordinarily early shakeup in the president's senior team of advisers. Flynn was a loyal Trump supporter throughout the campaign, but his ties to Russia caused concern among other senior aides.

     

    Flynn initially told Trump advisers that he did not discuss sanctions with the Russian envoy during the transition. Vice President Mike Pence, apparently relying on information from Flynn, publicly vouched for the national security adviser.

     

    Flynn later told White House officials that he may have discussed sanctions with the ambassador.

    Making him the first of Trump's appointees to be let go, just as the odds predicted…

     

    Rather more notably, the dollar index tumbled on the news as perhaps the first cracks start to appear in the potemkin village of hope the markets have built around a Utrumpian future…

  • Random Mar-A-Lago Guest Posts Selfie With "Nuclear Football" Briefcase

    Richard DeAgazio, a 72-year-old Palm Beach businessman, Trump supporter and actor, raised some eyebrows over the weekend after he essentially live blogged Trump’s Mar-A-Lago golf outing with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.  Among other misguided posts, DeAgazio thought it would be a really good idea to pose with, and publicly identify, “Rick”, the service man responsible for carrying the “nuclear football.”

    DeAgazio has since deleted his Facebook account, but as parents have been warning their teenagers for nearly a decade now, it’s almost impossible to erase something from the internet once it hits social media.  Unfortunately for Richard, this was no exception:

    Nuke Football

     

    Of course, this type of aloof behavior from Mar-A-Lago guests who pay annual membership dues of $200,000 to Trump’s business interests, will be exploited to the maximum extent possible by outraged Democrats.  We’re awaiting an impeachment motion from Nancy Pelosi which should be forthcoming at any moment.

    While the picture above was likely plenty to get him “Fired” from the club, DeAgazio was far from finished.  Here is a lovely picture with Steve Bannon…

    Nuke Football

     

    …and another with Trump standing in front of a glorious portrait of himself.

    Nuke Football

     

    But he still wasn’t done, at 1:35AM DeAgazio posted the following pics of Prime Minister Abe and Trump reacting after news broke that North Korea had “launched a missile in the direction of Japan”….”HOLY MOLY!!!”

    Nuke Football

    Finally, after the scrambled press conference between Trump and Abe to address the Korean launch, Trump crashed a wedding taking place at Mar-a-Lago, grabbed the mic and spoke to the guests. The groom came from a wealthy Ohio family. His father is co-CEO of American Financial Group and gave $100,000 toward Trump Super PACs last fall, according to New York Magazine.

  • Did The Fed Just Experience A "Margin Call" Moment?

    Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

    For those not familiar, the reference is attributed to a scene from the movie “Margin Call” where John Tuld (Jeremy Irons) makes the sanguinary argument for dumping its portfolio of toxic holdings immediately against contradictory arguments that it’ll be seen as panicking by others with the line, “It’s not panicking if you’re first.”

    That one line in fiction contains volumes as to the reality about how Wall Street, bankers, and more view the world. Which is precisely why when I read the news that Federal Reserve member, and “Regulatory Point Man” Daniel Tarullo resigned unexpectedly I just sat back in my chair thinking, “Of course he did” as that afore-mentioned scene came to mind.

    The reason why this sudden departure (remembering his term expires in 2022 some 5 years away) inspired thoughts as the above  that will surely be met with retorts such as “tinfoil wearing, conspiracy type” nonsense was not just the timing. But his resignation letter. To wit:

    “After more than eight years as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, I intend to resign my position on or around April 5, 2017. It has been a great privilege to work with former Chairman Bernanke and Chair Yellen during such a challenging period for the nation’s economy and financial system.”

    Yep, that’s it. No alluding “health reasons.” No “need more time with family” qualifiers. Nor, anything else. Just a corporate styled, “Thanks, see Ya!” as to vacate 5 years early one of the most prestigious jobs in banking (Board of Governors) with quite possibly one, if not “the” most powerful agencies in the world, bar none. e.g., The Federal Reserve. Right, “Nothing to see here people, just move along, thanks for stopping by.”

    If this doesn’t ring alarm-bells, than I guess Barron’s™ is right and “Next Stop Dow 30,000” here we come! Or, was that cover-story what signaled Mr. Tarullo to heed what it may portend (i.e., marking market tops) and thought, “Getting outta Dodge” before this thing falls apart first was the next prudent banking and career move? All one can do is speculate.

    That said: It’s a fun thought experiment on one hand. But on the other? All I’ll say is this:

    If you’re into market signals? These aren’t what you want to see emanating from the Fed. if you’re one of those still buying every dip horns-over-hooves. Because the next “dip” just may be a cliff. That is, unless you’re a vaunted investment “guru” on CNBC™ and your mail arrives 2 days late crushing your prior invest advice to then flip, then flip again only 6 days later back to what you argued was wrong to begin with. But I digress.

    So again: Why would a member of the Fed suddenly resign?

    Unless?

    And that one word, much like the one line from the movie speaks volumes. The difference this time? It’s not in a fictional setting – it’s reality. And what it portends doesn’t have anything close to the intention of any movie. e.g., entertainment.

    No, these signals are troubling at their root cause. i.e., The realization that the entire monetary system may in fact be teetering on the verge of chaos. And the finger-pointing has already begun directed squarely at central bankers, and in particular The Fed.

    The abdication, its timing, along with its terse reasoning reinforces the argument that things are not as “great”, or “under-control” as the powers that be (e.g., central bankers) would have one believe. Especially from an institution that is supposedly hell-bent on making sure “signaling” or “policy” interpretations are delivered in a manner as to not be misconstrued.

    From the outside looking in, it would appear either someone didn’t get that memo, or didn’t care.

    The only thing more concerning is, if they did – and still didn’t care.

    Again, there seems to be far more to this resignation by the very manner in which it was brought forth. And that’s not an “interpretation problem” for others to overcome. No: That’s a problem of interpreting at face value anything now emanating from the Fed. Period.

    Why? I’ll propose it’s occurring at precisely the exact wrong time where “believe” and or “trust” that the Fed. knows or understands the implications of its decisions are needed.

    And what is the current Fed. “smoke signals?” Utter shambles for anything resembling coherent, concise messaging.

    Think I’m exaggerating or being hyperbolic? Fair point. Here’s just a few of the prevailing “arguments” one needs to try to decipher when attempting to understand current monetary policy and what it may, or may not, portend for the future.

    One down, (e.g., Mr. Turullo) how many will follow? e.g., Is Fed. Governor Lael Brainard next? After all, Ms, Brainard was not only an ardent supporter of Mrs. Clinton, but she also appears misaligned with current policy messaging. i.e., Not to keen about hiking rates.

    Or how about other arguments, along with statements such as this from Vice Chair Stanley Fischer: “There is quite significant uncertainty about what’s actually going to happen, I don’t think anyone quite knows.” when responding to a question about future fiscal policy which may, or may not, be forth coming in the U.S.

    To me, the real trouble was what followed when he said: “At the moment we are going strictly according to what we see as our responsibility according to law.”

    So, maybe it’s just me. But I’m quite sure that his boss, Chair Yellen, quite confidently alluded to at the last FOMC presser exactly what was needed and forthcoming, regardless of what came out of the current administration. i.e., Three rate hikes (via the Dot Plot) and possibly even more should they (The Fed.) see fit in reaction to anything “fiscal.” Has that changed? Again? And if it hasn’t? Is that still not an even bigger problem for the “markets?”

    If the above referenced conference and articles are any clue? The messaging, and signaling are bordering on incoherent. Again!

    Think there’s no reason to “panic” if you’re on the inside, let alone trying to gain insights from the outside looking in?

    Remember when the scariest notion viewed by Wall Street was the possibility that the Fed. would even consider, let alone float the idea of winding down its balance sheet first, before exhausting all other “tools” or options? How many “think tank” aficionados along with the gaggle of Ivy Leagued Ph.D economists touted such a thing as “crazy talk” when the notion was ever brought up?

    This even caused the former Chair to take to the keyboard on Jan. 26th 2017 and ask (or plead) that it wasn’t so.

    Can you say “Oh, Oh?”

    From St. Louis Fed. President Bullard’s discussion on 2/9/2017 for 2017 Monetary Policy. To wit:

    “Now that the policy rate has been increased, the FOMC may be in a better position to allow reinvestment to end or to otherwise reduce the size of the balance sheet,”

    So, are we to infer that if we are to get only one or two rate hikes, what we might actually see concurrent with that is the only other thing deemed even scarier in the eyes of Wall Street? e.g., Selling by the Fed. rather than buying?

    Again, can you say, “Oh, Oh?” Or is this all “conspiracy”, “tin-foiled” cap wearing crazy talk?

    Could be. Or, it could be fiction transforming into reality straight out of a scene in “Margin Call.” After all, as of November 15, 2016 Mr. Tarullo’s position was to carefully watch market reaction to Trump administration. And his conclusion?

    Hint: Re-read the first paragraph while remembering: When it comes to “bag holders?” That’s not in their job description, that’s yours.

  • Corporate America Setting Up "War Rooms" To Prep For Potential Trump Tweets

    Since November 8th, several public companies have unsuspectingly fallen into the cross hairs of Trump tweets sending their stocks gyrating violently while adding or erasing millions of dollars worth of market cap in a matter of seconds.  Here is just a small sample:

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    As we pointed out back in January, Toyota’s shares, along with the Mexican Peso, tumbled on Trump’s threat to impose a “big border tax” on their Corolla imports as the unprepared and shocked company frantically drafted a response.

    As Mr. Trump posted his message, Toyota’s chief communications officer, Scott Vazin, was packing his suitcase and preparing to leave his hotel room in Las Vegas, where he had been holding meetings around a trade show organized by the Consumer Technology Association. Mr. Vazin’s phone began to buzz as he faced a deluge of text messages and calls from his communications staff and reporters.

     

    Once the tweet was sent, Mr. Vazin called Messrs. Lentz and Nagata to discuss the statement he would craft, as the company’s stock began to inch downward. The auto maker posted its response on Twitter less than two hours later.

     

    “Toyota has been part of the cultural fabric in the U.S. for nearly 60 years,” said its statement, which bolded the name of the Mexican city where its plant will be located—Guanajuato, not Baja. The company touted its “$21.9 billion direct investment in the U.S.” and its number of employees and facilities in the U.S. Mr. Vazin said the company hasn’t been contacted by Mr. Trump since the statement.

    Now, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s Twitter blasts, which often drive ‘yuge’ market reactions and come without warning, are forcing companies across the country to draft plans for “war rooms” to address a surprise presidential tweet.  Moreover, other companies are actively exploring strategically placing ads on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” CNN and “The O’Reilly Factor”—programs and networks fro which Trump has often appeared to draw inspiration for his tweets.

    “Every business and association in Washington is thinking about how they would respond to a tweet from Donald Trump,” said Alex Conant, a partner at the communications firm Firehouse Strategies and a longtime Republican strategist.

     

    In one recent simulation to prepare for a public attack by Mr. Trump, says consultant Eric Dezenhall, top executives of a science and technology company spent an afternoon in a room responding to various fallout scenarios, such as a stock-price plunge, congressional hearings or questions from investigative reporters.

     

    Mr. Dezenhall says the company that
    rehearsed the drill is now looking for something it can use as a potential peace offering to the president in the event of a critical tweet or other Trump tirade, “an equivalent to ‘we’re no longer building a plant in Mexico.’”

     

    Lobbying shops are telling their clients to do a thorough review of their business interests, especially as they relate to federal contracts, so they can tell a story about how the firm invests domestically.

    Still others companies have begun aggressively promoting previously announced job creation numbers in an effort to head off any criticism from the White House.  The latest example of such a move came from Intel’s CEO, Brian Krzanich, who recently visited the White House to tout a $7BN investment in a facility in Chandler, Arizona which was already announced under the Obama administration.

    Other companies have taken more proactive steps. Intel Corp. CEO Brian Krzanich last week traveled to the White House to roll out the company’s plans for a $7 billion investment in a major manufacturing plant in Arizona—plans that had been in the works for several years. Mr. Trump said following the announcement: “We’re very happy.”

     

    Other companies, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Amazon.com Inc., have issued press releases touting U.S. job creation numbers from previously planned store openings and expansions. Some are also turning to “social-listening” tools to monitor mentions of their products on social networks, analyze the fallout from Trump tweets about other companies and track what’s said on the accounts that Mr. Trump follows.

     

    General Motors Co.—whose CEO Mary Barra has frequently spoken with Mr. Trump—said last month it would invest at least $1 billion across several U.S. factories, days after the president accused it on Twitter of moving Mexican-made vehicles across the border.

    Guess we can add the cost of establishing these ‘war rooms’ to the list of excuses as to why companies will inevitably miss Q1 2017 earnings…at least they get to blame something other than the “weather” for once.

  • A New Jacksonian Era?

    Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

    “Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out!” – Andrew Jackson

    “There is nothing the political establishment will not do, and no lie they will not tell, to hold on to their prestige and power at your expense. The Washington establishment, and the financial and media corporations that fund it, exists for only one reason: to protect and enrich itself. This is a crossroads in the history of our civilization that will determine whether or not We The People reclaim control over our government. The political establishment that is trying everything to stop us, is the same group responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal immigration, and economic and foreign policies that have bled this country dry.

    The political establishment has brought about the destruction of our factories and our jobs, as they flee to Mexico, China and other countries throughout the world. It’s a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth, and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities.” – Donald Trump

    Andrew Jackson was a bigger than life figure who lived from the early stages of the American Revolution until the country was on the verge of splitting apart over slavery and states’ rights issues. Born in the Carolinas shortly after his father died in an accident, he acted as a courier during the Revolutionary War. Andrew and his brother Robert were captured by the British and held as prisoners and nearly starved to death in captivity.

    When Andrew refused to clean the boots of a British officer, the officer slashed him with a sword, leaving deep scars on his left hand and head. His brother died of smallpox and his mother from cholera in 1781, leaving him an orphan at the age of 14. He blamed the British for their deaths and held an intense hatred of the British for the rest of his life.

    Jackson was a grudge holder. He was a courageous military hero, nicknamed Old Hickory by his troops because of his toughness. He was combative and vindictive. He was a self-made lawyer, military leader and statesman. He was a wealthy plantation owner and merchant. Over one hundred and fifty slaves worked on his plantation.

    He fought Indians, the British, politicians, and bankers. He was scorned and ridiculed by the press. Establishment politicians cheated him out of a presidential victory, but that loss motivated him to crush his political enemies in the next election. He was a devoted dependable friend to his compatriots and a steadfast adversary to those who crossed him.

    If you think the fake news media and vitriolic political campaigns, personally attacking the families of candidates was a modern day phenomenon, you would be badly mistaken. American politics sinking into the sewer and sensationalistic journalism existed from the earliest days of our country. Jackson’s controversial marriage to Rachel Robards made Jackson resentful towards any attack on her honor. He had mistakenly married her before her divorce was official. An attack on their honor published in a local Nashville newspaper led Jackson to challenge Charles Dickinson to a duel.

    Charles Dickinson was considered an expert shot. Jackson decided to let Dickinson fire first, betting his aim might be off in his haste. Dickinson did fire first striking Jackson just below the heart. The musket ball remained lodged in his lung for the rest of his life. Under the rules of dueling, Dickinson had to remain still as Jackson took aim and killed him. Jackson’s behavior in the duel outraged men of honor in Tennessee, who called it a brutal, cold-blooded killing and saddled Jackson with a reputation as a violent, vengeful man. As a result, he became a social outcast.

    Jackson’s wound didn’t keep him from becoming a national military hero nine years later by leading his outnumbered troops to an overwhelming victory over the British at the Battle of New Orleans during the War of 1812. His hatred for the British going back to the Revolutionary War likely motivated him to defend New Orleans to the death. Jackson took command of the defenses, directing 5,000 militia from various Western states. He was a strict officer but was popular with his troops. Jackson’s soldiers won a crushing victory over 7,500 attacking British soldiers.

    The British had 2,037 casualties: 291 dead (including three senior generals), 1,262 wounded, and 484 captured or missing. The Americans had 71 casualties: 13 dead, 39 wounded, and 19 missing. This victory propelled him to national prominence and spurred his presidential aspirations. The common man saw Jackson as a populist hero. He continued to build his militaristic resume by defeating the Seminole and Creek Indians in Florida, who were secretly supported by the British and Spanish.

    In another example of history rhyming, the 1824 presidential election was far more dysfunctional and corrupt than the most recent election campaign. There was essentially one political party, the Democrat-Republican Party. The states put forth four candidates: Andrew Jackson, William Crawford, John Quincy Adams, and Henry Clay. In a hotly contested campaign, filled with nasty accusations and condemnations, Jackson won the popular vote and a plurality of the electoral votes, but not a majority. Therefore, the decision went to the House of Representatives. As an establishment outsider, Jackson was at a disadvantage.

    In what became known as the “Corrupt Bargain”, Henry Clay, the current Speaker of the House, convinced Congress to elect Adams, who then made Clay his Secretary of State. For the next four years Jackson and his supporters railed against the Adams administration calling it illegitimate and tainted by corruption and an aristocratic governing style. The Jacksonians rightly denounced the Adams administration for its pork barrel spending and rewarding of special interests. Jackson’s defeat burnished his political credentials as many voters believed the “man of the people” had been robbed by the “corrupt aristocrats of the East”.

    “I weep for the liberty of my country when I see at this early day of its successful experiment that corruption has been imputed to many members of the House of Representatives, and the rights of the people have been bartered for promises of office.” – Andrew Jackson

    He learned from his mistakes and built a coalition of support in 1828, with John C. Calhoun as his running mate and Martin Van Buren as a key ally. He created the Democratic Party and when his opponents referred to him as “jackass” he embraced the insult and used it as a symbol for his campaign. The donkey later became the symbol of the Democratic Party. The campaign was mean and personal with insults and accusation flying in the press.  It reached a low point when the press accused Jackson’s wife Rachel of bigamy. Jackson won the election in an electoral landslide. Rachel died suddenly on December 22, 1828, before his inauguration, and was buried on Christmas Eve. The stress of the election led to her heart attack. He blamed Adams and his cronies for her death.

    Jackson’s eight year presidency marked a turning point in American politics. He rode a wave of populism to victory and it marked the first time political power had passed from establishment elites to ordinary voters based in political parties. Jackson’s philosophy as President followed much in the same line as Thomas Jefferson, advocating Republican values held by the Revolutionary War generation. He attempted to conduct his presidency with high moral standards, but ultimately fell short.

    He attempted to limit the Federal government, but when South Carolina opposed the tariff law he took a strong line in favor of nationalism and against secession. He also used the power of the Federal government to forcefully relocate Indian tribes to west of the Mississippi.  He despised the moneyed interests and dismantled the Second Bank of the United States. His actions indirectly led to the Panic of 1837.

    In another occurrence with similarities to Trump’s cabinet selections, Jackson believed the president’s power was derived from the common man. Instead of choosing hand- picked party cronies for his cabinet, he decided choosing businessmen, who would get things done and follow his lead, was the better course. Having headstrong businessmen with huge egos and vicious gossip mongering wives in his administration would have fit in nicely in our present day degraded Kardashian selfie culture.  Salacious rumors and sex scandals led to bitter partisanship between Eaton, Calhoun and Van Buren. Jackson was forced to fire and revamp his entire cabinet in 1830.

    The issue which most reflected Jackson as the president of the common man versus the vested interests was his struggle against Nicholas Biddle and the Second Bank of the United States. It was chartered in 1816 by James Madison in an effort to restore an economy ravaged by the War of 1812. Biddle attempted to renew its charter in 1832 and successfully got the renewal through Congress.

    Jackson, believing that Bank was a corrupt monopoly whose stock was mostly held by foreigners, vetoed the bill. Jackson used the issue to endorse his democratic values, contending the Bank was being run by a den of vipers for the benefit of the wealthy elite. Jackson stated the Bank made “the rich richer and the potent more powerful”. He never stopped fighting for the common man.

    “You are a den of vipers. I intend to rout you out and by the Eternal God I will rout you out. If the people only understood the rank injustice of our money and banking system, there would be a revolution before morning.” Andrew Jackson

    His veto became the primary issue in the 1832 presidential campaign against Henry Clay, as his opponents rebuked his veto as the work of a demagogue, claiming he was using class warfare as a ploy to get the support of the common man. Proving a populist message brought directly to the people can defeat an establishment machine, Jackson crushed Clay in the election, with 55% of the popular vote and receiving 219 electoral votes to Clay’s 49. He warned the people against allowing central bankers to take control of the government. We didn’t heed his warning. Whether Trump has the courage of Jackson in taking on the Central banker den of vipers is yet to be seen.

    “The bold effort the present (central) bank had made to control the government … are but premonitions of the fate that await the American people should they be deluded into a perpetuation of this institution or the establishment of another like it.” Andrew Jackson

    Jackson knew powerful banking and corporate interests were the antithesis of how a government by the people, for the people and of the people should function. He also knew debt and fiat paper created a speculative gambling economy, not beneficial to the common man over the long-term. Giving away the power of the people to bankers and corporations created as much havoc and suffering in the 1830s as it has today.

    “The mischief springs from the power which the moneyed interest derives from a paper currency which they are able to control, from the multitude of corporations with exclusive privileges which they have succeeded in obtaining, and unless you become more watchful in your states and check this spirit of monopoly and thirst for exclusive privileges you will in the end find that the most important powers of government have been given or bartered away.” Andrew Jackson

    After disposing of the Bank of the United States in 1833, Jackson removed federal deposits from the bank and the money-lending functions were taken over by the multitude of local and state banks across America. The national economy boomed as the federal government coffers overflowed with revenue from tariffs and the sale of public lands in the west. In January 1835, Jackson paid off the entire national debt, the only time in U.S. history that has been accomplished. He rightfully saw the national debt as a curse, only benefitting the moneyed interests.

    “I am one of those who do not believe that a national debt is a national blessing, but rather a curse to a republic; inasmuch as it is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country.” – Andrew Jackson

    I find it amusing historians of a Keynesian persuasion blame Jackson’s dismantling of the central bank in 1833 for the Panic of 1837 and the subsequent four year depression. The true cause of the Panic and depression was reckless land speculation by the rich, financed by state and local bankers who failed to exercise due diligence, risk management or restraint on their lending practices. Does that sound familiar (2008 Financial Crisis)? Bankers have been the perpetual cause of financial crisis since the inception of this country.

    Jackson was forced to rein in the rampant credit bacchanal by issuing the Specie Circular, which required buyers of government land to pay in specie (gold or silver coins). This was another example of when the tide goes out you see who was swimming naked. The credit speculators had no gold or silver and bank losses threw the country into panic and depression. Just as the Fed induced housing boom and the Wall Street mortgage and derivatives control fraud were the cause of the 2008 financial crisis, it was banker fueled land speculation which caused the 1837 Panic. Jackson was just the pin popping the bubble before it got even bigger.

    The non-stop speculation about assassinating Trump as the left wing solution to losing a fair election has reached epic proportions on social media. Of course, cowardly social justice warriors, who don’t believe in free speech, election results, the Constitution, or the rule of law, are good at making hollow threats and causing destruction within their liberal enclaves of hate, but they don’t have the balls to actually attempt an assassination. Back in Jackson’s day of duels and face to face justice, there were no safe spaces and trigger warnings.

    The first assassination attempt on a sitting president occurred in 1835 outside the U.S. Capitol when Richard Lawrence, an unemployed house painter from England, aimed two pistols at President Jackson as he was leaving the East Portico after a funeral. Both pistols misfired. As Lawrence was disarmed and restrained by, among others, Davey Crockett, Jackson attacked him with his cane. Lawrence blamed Jackson for the loss of his job.

    Afterwards, due to public curiosity concerning the double misfires, the pistols were tested and retested. Each time they performed perfectly. Many believed Jackson had been protected by the same Providence they believed also protected their young nation. The incident became a part of the Jacksonian mythos.

    There is no doubt Jackson and Trump have similarities in their confrontational natures, blunt talk and fiery tempers. Historian H.W. Brands noted how opponents were terrified of his temper in his autobiography of the iconic figure:

    “Observers likened him to a volcano, and only the most intrepid or recklessly curious cared to see it erupt…. His close associates all had stories of his blood-curling oaths, his summoning of the Almighty to loose His wrath upon some miscreant, typically followed by his own vow to hang the villain or blow him to perdition. Given his record – in duels, brawls, mutiny trials, and summary hearings – listeners had to take his vows seriously.”

    If twitter had existed in the 1830s, Jackson would have surely been hurling insults at his opponents and the feckless press. Jackson used his reputation for rage and fearsomeness to achieve his policy goals by intimidating his opponents. If you think Trump’s insults hurled at Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush and Chuck Schumer have been too un-presidential like, consider Jackson’s final thoughts about his two most hated political opponents.

    “After eight years as President I have only two regrets: that I have not shot Henry Clay or hanged John C. Calhoun.” Andrew Jackson

    It is fascinating how the intellectual elites of Jackson’s time had the same level of contempt for the common man as the arrogant ruling elite have for the “deplorables” inhabiting the towns and hamlets of flyover America today. Alexis de Tocqueville, a pretentious French intellectual, and contemporary of Andrew Jackson, treated Jackson, his presidency, and his supporters disdainfully in his book Democracy in America, written during Jackson’s presidency. The haughty condescension of the rich and powerful elite towards the plebs has spanned the ages, with the NYT, Washington Post and CNN scornfully filling the role of Tocqueville today.

    “Far from wishing to extend the Federal power, the President belongs to the party which is desirous of limiting that power to the clear and precise letter of the Constitution, and which never puts a construction upon that act favorable to the government of the Union; far from standing forth as the champion of centralization, General Jackson is the agent of the state jealousies; and he was placed in his lofty station by the passions that are most opposed to the central government. It is by perpetually flattering these passions that he maintains his station and his popularity. General Jackson is the slave of the majority: he yields to its wishes, its propensities, and its demands–say, rather, anticipates and forestalls them.

    General Jackson stoops to gain the favor of the majority; but when he feels that his popularity is secure, he overthrows all obstacles in the pursuit of the objects which the community approves or of those which it does not regard with jealousy. Supported by a power that his predecessors never had, he tramples on his personal enemies, whenever they cross his path, with a facility without example; he takes upon himself the responsibility of measures that no one before him would have ventured to attempt. He even treats the national representatives with a disdain approaching to insult; he puts his veto on the laws of Congress and frequently neglects even to reply to that powerful body. He is a favorite who sometimes treats his master roughly.” – Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

    Andrew Jackson was most certainly a flawed human being, with a multitude of personal tragedies coalescing to form his persona and worldview. His hardscrabble upbringing, fighting nature, contempt for republican elitism, and disdain for the greedy acolytes of wealth and privilege, formed his political philosophy and popularity among average citizens. Jackson’s goal was to rid government of class preferences and shred the credit driven advantages of the wealthy minority, whose only concern was their personal wealth.

    He dedicated himself to ridding the government of those who exploited the majority to benefit the few. Equal rights and limited government while ensuring the wealthy establishment cronies could not enrich themselves at the public trough by capturing the governmental levers of power and plundering the nation’s wealth, was the vision espoused by the Jacksonians.

    By demonizing the moneyed aristocracy and supporting the common man, Jackson broadened electoral participation to include an overwhelming majority of white men. Jackson’s success in democratizing the political process works when an educated involved civic minded electorate is active in the process. As time passed and the electorate expanded, our democracy has devolved into a vote buying exercise of who promises the masses the most. Huge portions of the electorate are feeble minded, free shit seeking ideologues, with no concern for the long-term sustainability of the nation. The voice of the people had been silenced by Deep State special interests until Trump’s unlikely victory in November.

    The Jacksonian Era of operating government for the benefit of the people was short lived, as the power of the elites reconstituted among the Northern business interests and Southern planters – ultimately leading to the Civil War resolution and further expansion of Federal government power and control. Jackson’s efforts were noble but ultimately a failure. Will Trump’s rhetoric of taking back government for the people ultimately fail? Can the rich and powerful vested interests be defeated? The odds are heavily against Trump, but we are in for a spectacular fireworks display as history unfolds.

     “It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes. Distinctions in society will always exist under every just government. Equality of talents, of education, or of wealth cannot be produced by human institutions. In the full enjoyment of the gifts of Heaven and the fruits of superior industry, economy, and virtue, every man is equally entitled to protection by law; but when the laws undertake to add to these natural and just advantages artificial distinctions, to grant titles, gratuities, and exclusive privileges, to make the rich richer and the potent more powerful, the humble members of society—the farmers, mechanics, and laborers—who have neither the time nor the means of securing like favors to themselves, have a right to complain of the injustice of their Government.” –  Andrew Jackson

    In Part Two of this article I will ponder whether the Trumpian Era will see Trump’s populist agenda successfully implemented or whether we experience a spectacular failure.

  • Institutional Investors are Terrified of this Asset

    One of the most important traits that an investor can have is patience. Everyone knows this and it makes perfect sense. Patience allows you to be opportunistic and only choose the best opportunities for your portfolio. Despite this common knowledge nearly all investors ignore the most important asset in their portfolio. The most important asset in every portfolio is Cash. Cash is an asset that gives investors optionality and helps improve returns in the future.

    When we say cash, we don’t specifically mean the U.S. Dollar, Euro, Yen or Treasuries. We’re using it as a general term for anything that can be quickly deployed to purchase an investment. As much as my readers would like to discuss the viability of the U.S. dollar or the implosion of the Euro this isn’t that article. Investors can keep cash or cash equivalents in whatever currency they view as the most stable.

    Cash Misconceptions

    As we have said before, cash gives investors optionality. Optionality allows investors to choose the best opportunities and outperform the market. Seth Klarman’s hedge fund Baupost, one of the most successful hedge funds of all time has used cash to maintain optionality. A letter from former Baupost employee Brian Spector highlights how important cash was to the success of their firm.

    “One of the most common misconceptions regarding Baupost is that most outsiders think we have generated good risk-adjusted returns despite holding cash. Most insiders, on the other hand, believe we have generated those returns BECAUSE of that cash. Without that cash, it would be impossible to deploy capital when we enter a tide market and great opportunities become widespread.”

    Academics and Institutions typically view cash as a drag on the performance of a portfolio. Given our prior experience as institutional investors we have seen the pressure that CIO’s place on portfolio managers to cut their cash allocations. Every month when portfolio managers review their attribution against benchmarks cash and cash equivalents can either be positive or negative. In a rising market no CIO wants to see their funds underperforming benchmarks due to cash allocations.

    Absolute Returns Matter Most

    Unfortunately, this flawed institutional logic typically makes its way to individual investors. Institutions compete against a benchmark. A Fidelity portfolio manager whose portfolio only declines 25% while the market declines 30% is considered extremely successful. For the individual investors, only absolute returns matter. Individuals realize that when a portfolio declines 25% it takes a 33% increase to get back to even. They don’t have the advantage of investing other people’s money and skimming 1 – 2% off the top.

    We even found a ridiculous article that talks about how “dangerous” cash drag can be on performance. This article, What a (Cash) Drag: Institutional Investors and ETF Cash Equitization describes the trend of institutional investors using ETF’s rather than holding cash. Institutional investors do this because they don’t want to lag benchmarks because of cash. The article begins by asking “why aren’t more retail investors using ETFs to equitize their cash?”. The simple answer is because it is a terrible idea. Measuring against benchmarks creates terrible incentives which is an advantage that individual investors have over institutions.

    Cash the Call Option

    Having a significant portion of your portfolio allocated to cash is like having a call option on all available opportunities. If you had even a minimal amount of cash available in 2008 and 2009 you would have had endless opportunities to deploy your cash and earn extremely high returns. The opportunity cost of cash far outweighs the potential drag on performance. Cash is the perfect call option because it costs nothing yet gives you the opportunity to purchase any available asset. This is the view that Warren Buffett has of his cash allocation. According to Buffett biographer Alice Schroeder,

    “He thinks of cash differently than conventional investors. He thinks of cash as a call option with no expiration date, an option on every asset class, with no strike price.”

    Having this type of mindset and ability to hold cash in your portfolio will set you up for success.

    Cash and Financial Repression

    Another reason to allocate more of your portfolio to cash is because of the current macro environment. Investors in Europe and Japan face negative interest rates. Faced with the choice of paying a government to own its debt as opposed to holding cash the choice seems easy. While most short-term debt is easily convertible into cash investors should never pay governments to hold their debts. Our modern age of financial repression means that investors should seriously consider holding larger cash allocations.

    Cash is King

    Financial portfolios and individual investors benefit from holding cash. Cash gives investors optionality to purse every available option. Holding cash will give you more piece of mind because you will be ready when the perfect investment appears. Let the institutions who compete against benchmarks always be invested. As Warren Buffett and Seth Klarman show us, successful investors consider cash one of their most important assets.


    Originally published at BoomBustMarket.com

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Today’s News 13th February 2017

  • Silver Futures Market Assistance, Report 12 Feb, 2017

    This week, the prices of the metals moved up on Monday. Then the gold price went sideways for the rest of the week, but the silver price jumped on Friday. Is this the rocket ship to $50? Will Trump’s stimulus plan push up the price of silver? Or just push silver speculators to push up the price, at their own expense, again?

    This will again be a brief Report this week, as we are busy working on something new and big. And Keith is on the road, in New York and Miami.

    Below, we will show the only true picture of the gold and silver supply and demand fundamentals. But first, the price and ratio charts.

    The Prices of Gold and Silver
    The Prices of Gold and Silver

    Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It fell this week.

    The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price
    The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

    For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

    Here is the gold graph.

    The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
    The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

    Again, we see a higher price of gold (shown here in its true form, a lower price of the dollar) along with greater scarcity (i.e. cobasis, the red line).

    This pattern continues. What does it mean?

    First, it means the price of gold is being pushed up by buyers of physical metal. Not by buyers of futures (which would push up the basis, and reduce scarcity).

    Second, if it continues too much more, it means nothing good for the banking system. There is one force that can make all the gold in the world—which mankind has been accumulating for thousands of years—disappear faster than you can say “bank bail in”. The force is fear of counterparties, fear of banks, fear of currencies, fear of central bank balance sheets… fear of government finances.

    We want to emphasize that the gold basis is not signaling disaster at the moment. It is merely moving in that direction, for the first time in a long time. It has a ways to go yet.

    Our calculated fundamental price is up another $40 (on top of last week’s +$40). It is now about $130 over the market price.

    Now let’s look at silver.

    The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
    The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

    Note: we switched to the May contract, as March was becoming unusable in its approach to expiry.

    In silver, the story is a bit less compelling. The scarcity of the metal is holding, as the price rises. However, scarcity is not increasing.

    Were we to take a guess, we would say there is some good demand for physical, and the price action had futures market assistance.

    While the market price moved up 44 cents, our calculated fundamental price moved up … 46 cents.

    © 2016 Monetary Metals

  • "As Ye Sow…"

    Submitted by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic blog,

    Our deranged world is a product of deranged minds.

    Philosophy begins with invariably difficult questions. Why am I here? What is the purpose of life? Is there a god or gods? What is right and what is wrong? How should groups of people be organized and function together? Ironically, when such questions are infrequently asked, when philosophy is generally ignored or disparaged, as it is now, is when it’s needed the most.

    Political philosophy is the branch that addresses the question of how coercive power is to be distributed in a society. It’s a knotty issue, but one question provides clarification, enabling further analysis and leading to useful conclusions. Who owns a political unit’s resources? This question differentiates between governments that protect individual rights and property and those that don’t. It also highlights a key problem: on planet earth, every government falls into the latter category.

    The United States’ founding documents pay tribute to individual rights and private properly. Some of the founders may have thought they were establishing a government subordinated to protection of individual rights, which would have been an historical first. However, none thought such a government would be easy to maintain, and their fears were borne out. The US government places prominently on the inglorious list of governments claiming ownership over everything within their dominion, defined as any place where they can exercise their coercive power.

    To those who say the institution of inviolate private property still exists in the US, what asset can the US government not seize? The income tax gives it first claim on income. No real estate is exempt from eminent domain. Intellectual property claims are at the sufferance of the patent, trademark, and copyright authorities. Financial assets held within the banking system can be “bailed in,” and plans are afoot to ban cash. The already extensive range of assets subjected to civil asset forfeiture continues to expand. More ominously, assets can be seized from parties never adjudicated guilty. Conscription grants to the government the lives of the conscripted. The US government is no exception to the general rule, nothing is inviolate expect perhaps a person’s thoughts, and undoubtedly it’s working on that.

    Individuals who assert the right to initiate aggression against whomever they choose are philosophically unhinged, candidates for an asylum or a penitentiary. Rejecting the first principle that must guide human interaction—that no one may rightfully initiate force against another person—such individuals have no rational foundation for their thoughts or actions. The “garbage in” of their philosophical premises produces “garbage out” emotional states, mental processes, and ultimately, lives. Having abandoned reason for coercion and violence, reality becomes a chaotic, incomprehensible void.

    Governments’ coercive power allow them to take: might makes right. A philosophy that recognized a right of some individuals to steal from others fails on first principles; there is no logical distinction possible between the privileged and the subjugated. Does the aggregation of individuals into a unit which calling itself a government give them a right which none of them have individually? One could say that the aggregate was for the protection of its constituents’ persons, property, and rights, but a government so limited is acting as their constituents’ subordinate agent, exercising and enhancing their right of self-defense. Efforts have been made, notably the American experiment, but no government has ever been restricted in this manner.

    No matter its guiding “ism,” every government has granted itself the power to initiate violence against its citizens. Just because the ruling agglomerate asserts this privilege doesn’t render it philosophically valid. What it does is legitimate the initiation of violence for any and all causes—domestic and foreign—the government deems proper.

    Having violated the first principle of nonaggression, nothing can stop that philosophical default from trickling down to the subject population. The ragged thief who holds up a liquor store lacks the polish and articulation of the politician who asserts the government’s first claim on a nation’s production, the central banker who depreciates its currency, or the general bent on global dominance who wages offensive wars, but philosophically they’re soul mates. In fact, the thief has a moral one up on the others: he doesn’t claim to be protecting the values he destroys.

    Millions have decried the violence that prevented Milo Yiannopoulos from speaking at the University of California at Berkeley, just as millions on the other side decried mostly illusory violence among Trump supporters during the campaign. However, not one in a thousand of those denouncing the violence as violations of fundamental civil liberties denounce the daily violations of fundamental liberties visited upon them by their own government. America’s corruption is so complete that those who insist that they are not fodder for the government, that their lives are their own, and that the only proper government is one subordinated to the protection of their individual rights—and maintain positions consistent with those principles—could hold a convention and not fill a high-school gym.

    This small group is the victim of a terrifying pincer movement from above and below. When a society abandons itself to violence, “legal” and otherwise, it abandons itself to mindless irrationality driven by hate and antipathy towards every positive value. Violence is not a means to any end other than destruction and death; violence itself is the end. Humanity has been fed the same tripe for centuries: noble ends justify evil means. Violation of the first principle—the stricture against initiated aggression—bars consideration of the purported ends. A “discussion” with a gun is no discussion. Violence exercised in self-defense protects positive values, but when violence is initiated, destruction, death, and the depraved pleasure of loathsome minds are its only ends.

    An individual who claims by word or deed the right to initiate violence – and the consequent rights to subjugate, injure, and kill – is a rabid, deranged, and dangerous animal. A government that asserts that right is a pack. In self-defense, the virtuous, if they are to protect their liberty, rights, and lives, must quarantine or kill the rabid. A necessary corollary of the stricture against initiated aggression is that we have the right to use all means necessary to defend ourselves from it—with pity, perhaps, but no remorse.

    The chaos, the terror, of our deteriorating world is a true and faithful reflection of souls abandoned to hate. The free mind and its methods—intrepid curiosity, truth, and logic—stand as their ultimate enemy. If those who would oppose this destruction and death abandon their souls, they become the mindless evil they opposed. Those who defend their rights, values, and lives without surrendering their morality will rebuild from the rubble the kind of world in which they deserve to live. They will do so unobstructed—hate inevitably leads to its own destruction.

  • China Bonds, Stocks, Commodities Extend Gains As Yuan Tumbles To One-Month Lows After Renewed Liquidity Injection

    As China got back to work after Golden Week, it appeared a renewed exuberance appeared in every orifice of liquidity provision (even as PBOC sucked up excess for 6 straight days). Stocks are up, bonds are up, and commodities are soaring (all as Yuan tumbles) and tonight authorities unleashed 100bn reverse-repo (for the first time in 7 days) as leverage seems nothing to worry about again yields drop and asset prices rise.

    As Bloomberg reports, China’s central bank restarted the use of an instrument that adds cash to the financial system, helping ease liquidity concerns before $153 billion of funds come due this week.

    The monetary authority sold a total 100 billion yuan ($14.5 billion) of reverse-repurchase agreements, the first auction after a six-day pause, a statement posted on its website showed. While the open-market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 90 billion yuan because of maturing contracts, the resumption signals that policy makers don’t want a sudden tightening of money supply, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (China) Ltd. The People’s Bank of China last week allowed 625 billion yuan of reverse repos to mature, mopping up cash after adding record funds in the days before the week-long Lunar New Year holidays. Some 900 billion yuan of the contracts are set to mature this week, as well as 151.5 billion yuan of loans under the Medium-term Lending Facility, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That adds up to 1.05 trillion yuan, or $153 billion.

    “The PBOC restarted the use of reverse repos to stabilize market sentiment because large maturities are on the way,” said Li Liuyang, a Shanghai-based market analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (China).

     

    “The net result will probably continue to be a withdrawal this week, but the pace will be controlled to avoid any crunch. We also expect it to conduct MLF, given the maturities.”

    And Lo and Behold – China soars…so much for all that worry about Trump trade wars!!

    Stocks are up…

    Bonds are up…

     

    And every industrial commodity is exploding higher…

     

    And all of this as the Yuan tumbles in a Trump-infuriating way… dropping to 5-week lows

  • The Rats Are Fleeing The Sinking Bond Ships

     

    Glen Hubbard, George Bush Jr.’s economic adviser, was a candidate
    to replace Alan Greenspan as Federal Reserve Chairman.  George Bush Jr. asked him if the economy
    sputtered, what would he do.  As he
    described the typical monetary policy tool of adjusting the overnight Federal
    Funds Rate, he said the net result would be to boost GDP by a half of a percent
    to percent.  I assume the same question
    was asked to Ben Bernanke.  Helicopter
    Ben didn’t disappoint and won the appointment.  As Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he got his
    chance and threw everything including the kitchen sink at stimulating the
    economy.  He lowered the Federal Funds
    rate down to zero and purchased trillions of bonds to expand the monetary base.
     He unleashed the most excessively
    accommodative monetary policy in history which was continued by current Federal
    Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen.  Fast
    forward to today and we are on the cusp of a 3+% GDP, core inflation running
    above 2% and full employment.  However,
    there are some perilous costs associated with such accommodative monetary
    policy.  The cost that should be the most
    worrying is the unwinding of the ultra-low bond yields in the US and globally
    that has just begun.

     

    Bond yields and market volatility are on the rise. This is
    the result of more normalized growth and inflation levels, less perceived
    global risks and hope for continued growth in the future. Fixed income investors
    have just begun to adjust to the idea of more normal yields in the bond market.  It may seem tempting to dip a toe into the
    bond market waters with this back-up in yields. But these are dangerous waters.
    Don’t lose a toe.  After 10 years of bond
    markets rallying the unwind is just beginning.

     

    Normalized markets for longer dated government bonds places
    yields around 2% to 3% above the rate of inflation.  And with inflation running at 2% and moving
    higher, longer term bond yields should be greater than 5%, not the current 3%.  If bonds yields backed up to the longer term
    averages, market losses could be 40% or more for the longest maturity bonds.

     

    The trillions in bond purchases that drove yields to
    all-time lows have abated and that’s bad news for bonds.  Banks have finished adding regulatory bond
    purchases and central banks have ended or are close to ending bond purchases
    for monetary policy purposes.  Government
    bond purchases made to limit rising currencies have now turned into sales to
    limit currency weakness.  And oil
    producing nations are no longer looking to put their surplus dollars from oil
    sales to work in the bond market.  They
    are now selling bonds to fund the holes in their fiscal budgets stemming from
    low oil prices.

     

    The last big purchaser of bonds still remains some very
    large and leveraged hedge funds.  Hedge
    funds have been caught on the wrong side of the global bond trade and are now
    trying to avoid selling their positions.  Fear and greed had helped keep bond yields at
    these low levels for longer than most would have thought.  In fact, yields have been so low for so long,
    anyone betting on higher yields has been fired, put out of business, or
    probably has a laundry list of stress related health problems.

     

    Whatever backup in yields we’ve seen, it’s just the first
    movement it what is sure to be an unharmonious symphony.  The bond market has spent years below more
    normal long-term yields while unprecedented accommodation was stuffed in the
    system. It is highly probable and reasonable to believe that the bond market needs
    to spend some time above the long run yield level.  That, by definition, is how an average is
    created.

     

    Now that the fixed income market has begun to adjust, losses
    are piling up and will soon be reported to investors.  The size of these losses are sure to shock the
    investor community that has grown accustomed

     

    to steady gains from fixed income.  In fact, when people open up their monthly account
    statements and see excessive losses from bonds yielding low single digits, the
    second movement in this symphony will begin.  Disappointed bond investors will soon put in
    sell requests and leveraged bond managers who were the last marginal buyer of
    bonds will have to turn into sellers. 
    Market yields will have to adjust higher and find a level that attracts
    the unlevered bond purchaser.  And that
    yield level appears to be much higher.

     

    So what is an investor to do?  Many hedge funds are trying to hold off
    liquidating bond trades by offering fee rebates to limit redemptions.  This is always a leading indicator of more
    pain to come. Just like rats that leave a sinking ship before it goes under,
    redemptions are starting to line up at many bond hedge funds.  These hedge fund captains are offering cheese by
    reducing fees which is sure to entice the fat rats. After 10 years of easy
    money in the bond market, these fat rats are incapable of swimming and will
    choose the cheese.   I remember when the over leveraged Long Term
    Capital Management hedge fund first started to suffer losses in their bond
    portfolio.  They incorrectly believed
    that if needed, more investor capital would be available to stabilize losing
    trades.  My advice to investors is to
    take a lesson from history and don’t bet on this old proverbial dead cat
    bouncing.  When markets turn, it’s best
    to move back to cash and let the markets readjust.  After such a long period of low yields and
    limited volatility, this market symphony will have many movements and we are
    not even at intermission.

        

  • A MeSSaGE FRoM MiSSiLe KiM…
  • Canada's Problem? US Refugee Crossings "Epidemic" Amid Fear, Distrust Of Trump

    In what some might call a 'win' for President Trump, Canadian immigration officials warn they are experiencing a "big surge [of refugees] coming across the border" with many of them proclaiming their distrust and fear of President Trump.

    Sherali and Sarah Shah took in three asylum seekers who had been trying to get into Canada through the Emerson, Man., border Tuesday.

    In the first official report of a group of "asylum seekers" who are malcontent refugees in the U.S. trying to become refugees in Canada being apprehended, U.S. border security guards and a local sheriff caught three Somali nationals trying to sneak across an open stretch of the U.S.-Canada border on Tuesday, according to CBC News.

    Kris Grogan, a public affairs officer for U.S. Customs and Border Protection, said border officials on the U.S. side are becoming increasingly worried about asylum seekers trying to get into Canada.

     

    "It is extremely dangerous to be putting yourself out into these elements where you could end up dying," he said.

     

    As CBC News first reported in January, hundreds of asylum seekers have walked into Canada through fields near the Emerson border.

     

     

    The issue came into the spotlight after two refugees from Ghana were hospitalized in Winnipeg after suffering frostbite on Christmas Eve while lost on Highway 75, near the Canada-U.S. border.

     

    The refugees were so badly frostbitten, they lost fingers and toes. Since the story of the two men became public, dozens of other asylum seekers, including a mother and two-year-old child, have crossed into Manitoba.

    As AFP reports, Farhan Ahmed hoped to find refuge in the United States after fleeing death threats in Somalia, but fear over a US crackdown on immigration sent him on another perilous journey — to Canada.

    The 36-year-old was among nearly two dozen asylum seekers who braved bone-chilling cold on a February weekend to walk across the border, trudging through snow-covered prairies in the dead of night to make a claim in this country.

     

     

    It was a record number of arrivals for a single weekend in the small border town of Emerson, and Canadian officials said Thursday they are bracing for more.

    An agreement with the US prevents asylum seekers from lodging claims in Canada if they first landed stateside, but it only applies to arrivals at border checkpoints, airports and train stations.

    Rita Chahal, executive director of the Manitoba Interfaith Immigration Council, described a "big surge coming across the border." According to Canada's Border Services Agency, numbers have roughly doubled in each of the last four years to 321 cases in fiscal 2015-2016. Since April, there have been 403 cases.

     

    People often come from Djibouti, Ghana, Nigeria and Somalia, said Chahal, whose agency works out of a building designed by a top Canadian architect who was once himself a refugee.

     

    The numbers are high, but the risky routes asylum seekers take are also alarming. "They're crossing through farmers' fields. Many of them are getting lost," Chahal said. The recent arrivals, she said, tell a common story: "'We're afraid of what's happening in the United States, we're not sure what's going to happen if I get sent back to my country.'"

     

    Samatar Adam, 30, from Djibouti, arrived last month. Asked why he did not file a refugee claim in the US, he replied: "Donald Trump." He left soon after the inauguration. "It saddens me to see refugees flee not only their country but also a safe, democratic country like the United States," said the Immigration Partnership Winnipeg's Hani Al-Ubeady, himself an Iraqi refugee who now helps resettle others.

     

    "They have to take another risky journey to make it to another safe place — Canada."

    As a reminder, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to Donald Trump’s immigration ban by saying Canada welcomes refugees who have been rejected from the US.

    “To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada,” he tweeted.

    And now it's Canada's problem? Will protesters blockade the northern border demanding US refugees stay in America? Will virtue-signaling have to be turned up to '11'? For now it seems Canada's "safe spaces" are safer than America's "safe spaces."

  • Washington Post Admits Shutting Down 'Fake News' Will Move Us Closer To A Modern-Day '1984'

    Submitted by Flemming Rose and Jacob Mchangama via The Washington Post,

    Remember George Orwell’s Ministry of Truth? In his dystopian novel “1984,” its purpose was to dictate and protect the government’s version of reality. During the Cold War, Orwell’s book was banned behind the Iron Curtain, because readers perceived the novel as an allegory for their own repressive regimes.

    It was a serious crime to distribute information defaming the Soviet social and political system. Such criminal laws were widely used by the Kremlin to silence dissidents, human rights activists, religious movements and groups fighting for independence in the Soviet republics. Similar laws were on the books in East Germany, Poland and other Eastern bloc countries.

    Thankfully, today this landscape is much changed, but increasingly there are disturbing echoes of the past. Amid a debate about the rising influence of fake news and the danger it poses to the political and social order in the West, democratic politicians in Europe have proposed sanctions — and even prison terms — for those found responsible for distributing false information.

    Euopean Union Justice Commissioner Vera Jourova has warned tech companies such as Facebook and Twitter that if they don’t find ways to eliminate hate speech and combat fake news, a law mandating action may be necessary. Commissioner Andrus Ansip reinforced that threat last month, albeit in softer language, prompting social-media giants and traditional media to announce a flurry of initiatives aimed at combating fake news.

    Italy’s antitrust chief, Giovanni Pitruzzella, has said that E.U. countries should set up a network of government-appointed bodies to remove fake news and potentially impose fines on the media. Pitruzzella doesn’t hide his political agenda — he wants to target his opponents on the populist left and right. “Post-truth in politics is one of the drivers of populism, and it is one of the threats to our democracies,” he told the Financial Times.

    In Germany, politicians eager to counter Russian meddling and populist movements in upcoming parliamentarian elections have issued similar calls. Justice Minister Heiko Maas argues that authorities need the power to impose prison terms for fake news on social media. “Defamation and malicious gossip are not covered under freedom of speech,” Maas said. “Justice authorities must prosecute that, even on the Internet. Anyone who tries to manipulate the political discussion with lies needs to be aware [of the consequences].”

    It is understandable that liberal democracies are deeply worried about disinformation, which tears at the fabric of pluralistic democratic societies. John Stuart Mill famously argued that free speech would help exchange “error for truth” and create “the clearer perception and livelier impression of truth, produced by its collision with error.” Yet this justification weakens considerably if lies and disinformation become indistinguishable from truth. In such an environment, “Democracy will not survive a lack of belief in the possibility of impartial institutions,” political scientist Francis Fukuyama recently wrote. “Instead, partisan political combat will come to pervade every aspect of life.”

    That is indeed a nightmare scenario to be avoided. But using legal measures to counter disinformation is likely to be a cure worse than the disease. One does not need to go back to the Cold War to worry about what happens when governments become the arbiters of truth.

    In the past two years, Egypt has sentenced six Al Jazeera journalists to death or long prison terms for, among other things, allegedly spreading false news. In 2013, Gambia — until the recent ouster of Yahya Jammeh, one of Africa’s worst dictators — introduced a punishment of up to 15 years’ imprisonment and hefty fines for those who spread “false news,” citing a need for stability and the prevention of “unpatriotic behavior” and “treacherous” campaigns. Russia, ironically the source of so much of the disinformation menacing liberal democracies, uses broad and vague anti-extremism laws to prohibit news that the Kremlin views as propaganda — including prison sentences for social-media users who insist that Crimea is part of Ukraine.

    Of course, Europe’s established democracies have little in common with the Soviet Union or other illiberal regimes. But the legal tools proposed by European politicians to suppress fake news sound alarmingly like those used by authoritarian governments to silence dissent. This is dangerous. Not only are such measures incompatible with the principle of free speech, but also they set precedents that could quickly strengthen the hand of the populist forces that mainstream European politicians feel so threatened by.

    Europe may soon find itself with populists such as France’s Marine Le Pen and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders with real power. Such leaders would draw the line between fake news and free speech very differently than mainstream politicians — perhaps aiming them at the supposedly corrupt established media rather than websites, blogs and social media trafficking in “alternative facts.” It is also unlikely that the increasingly illiberal governments of Poland and Hungary would agree with the European Commission or German Chancellor Angela Merkel on what constitutes false information or fake news.

    And while the First Amendment prevents the U.S. government from overtly limiting press freedom, it’s clear that President Trump’s definition of fake news is vastly different from what his opponents or the media have in mind.

    Above all, rather than strengthening established media institutions, banning fake news might very well undermine them in the eyes of the public.

    If alternative outlets are prosecuted or shut down, mainstream media risk being seen as unofficial propaganda tools of the powers that be. Behind the Iron Curtain, nonofficial media outlets had more credibility than official media in spite of the fact that not everything they published was accurate or fact-checked. The hashtag #fakenews could become a selling point with the public if it were banned rather than rigorously countered and refuted.

    As White House strategist Stephen K. Bannon replied when asked whether press secretary Sean Spicer, after making irrefutably false statements, had damaged his credibility with the media: “Are you kidding me? We think that’s a badge of honor.”

  • Trump, Bannon Said To Weigh Firing Mike Flynn Over Russian Phone Calls Scandal

    Top White House aide and policy adviser, Stephen Miller, sidestepped repeated chances during Sunday news shows to publicly defend embattled National Security Adviser Michael Flynn following reports that he engaged in conversations with Russian diplomat(s) about U.S. sanctions before Trump’s inauguration. The uncertainty came as Trump was dealing with North Korea’s apparent first missile launch of the year and his presidency, along with visits this week from the leaders of Israel and Canada.

    Pressed repeatedly, Stephen Miller said it wasn’t up to him to say whether the president retains confidence in Flynn. “It’s not for me to tell you what’s in the president’s mind,” he said on NBC. “That’s a question for the president.”

    While Trump has yet to comment on the allegations against Flynn, the White House said in an anonymous statement Friday the president had full confidence in Flynn. But officials have been mum since then amid fallout from reports that Flynn addressed U.S. sanctions against Russia in a phone call late last year. The report, which first appeared in The Washington Post, contradicted both Flynn’s previous denials, as well as those made by Vice President Mike Pence in a televised interview.

    Now we know why the administration has been so quiet about the fate of Flynn. As the WSJ reports, the White House is reviewing “whether to retain Flynn amid a furor over his contacts with Russian officials before President Donald Trump took office, an administration official said Sunday.” Flynn has apologized to White House colleagues over the episode, which has created a rift with Vice President Mike Pence and diverted attention from the administration’s message to his own dealings, the official said.

    “He’s apologized to everyone,” the official said of Mr. Flynn.

    Still, the WSJ concedes that Trump’s views toward the matter aren’t clear. In recent days, he has privately told people the controversy surrounding Mr. Flynn is unwelcome, after he told reporters on Friday he would “look into” the disclosures.  At the same time, Trump also has said he has confidence in Mr. Flynn and wants to “keep moving forward,” a person familiar with his thinking said. Close Trump adviser Steve Bannon had dinner with Mr. Flynn over the weekend, according to another senior administration official, and Bannon’s view is to keep him in the position but “be ready” to let him go, the first administration official said.

    The paper also adds that Jard Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, hadn’t yet weighed in on Flynn’s future yet as of Sunday evening.

    For those who may not have followed the story, Flynn initially said that in a conversation Dec. 29 with the Russian ambassador, Sergey Kislyak, he didn’t discuss sanctions imposed that day by the outgoing Obama administration, which were levied in retaliation for alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Flynn now concedes that he did, administration officials said, after transcripts of his phone calls show as much. He also admits he spoke with the ambassador more than once on Dec. 29, despite weeks of the Trump team’s insisting it was just one phone call, officials said.

    If Flynn had promised any easing of sanctions once Mr. Trump took office, he may have violated a law that prohibits private citizens from engaging in foreign policy, legal experts have said. That would mark the first instance of a person close to Mr. Trump found to have inappropriate links to Russia, a subject U.S. officials have been investigating for months.

    U.S. intelligence services routinely intercept and monitor conversations with Russian diplomats, officials have said. While the transcripts of the conversations don’t show Mr. Flynn made any sort of promise to lift the sanctions once Mr. Trump took office, they show Flynn making more general comments about relations between the two countries improving under Mr. Trump, people familiar with them said.

    Flynn’s alleged lies have angered VP Mike Pence, who in television interviews vouched for Flynn, administration officials said. Pence and Flynn spoke twice on Friday, one official said quoted by the WSJ.

    Reince Priebus is leading the Trump administration’s review of Flynn.

    Some administration officials are hopeful Mr. Flynn would resign on his own, a person familiar with the matter said. Some people close to Mr. Trump already are speculating on possible successors, including retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who advised Mr. Trump during the campaign and who is chief of staff of the National Security Council.

     

    Jettisoning Mr. Flynn might end one controversy, but would potentially feed perceptions of a disorganized White House, some people close to Mr. Trump said. That’s one reason the White House might be hesitant to cut ties to Mr. Flynn, they added.

    Meanwhile, Democrats smell blood and want Flynn out immediately.

    As pressure built on White House officials, Democrats on Sunday pressed for an independent investigation into Mr. Flynn’s conversations with Russia’s ambassador.

     

    “Either he was lying about discussing it or he forgot,” said Sen. Al Franken (D., Minn.), speaking Sunday on CNN. ”You don’t want a guy in either of those scenarios to be in that position.”

    Franken has also called for an independent investigation into the Trump campaign’s and the administration’s ties to Russia, citing allegations of Kremlin interference in the 2016 U.S. election and Mr. Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns, as candidates have done since the 1970s. “We don’t know what [Mr. Trump] owes Russia,” Mr. Franken said. “We don’t know how many Russian oligarchs have invested in his business.” At the same time Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D., R.I.), who lead the Senate Judiciary Committee’s subpanel on crime and terrorism, already have launched an investigation of Russia’s efforts to influence the U.S. election.

    While the situation remains liquid, two things are certain: Trump will have a “kneejerk response” tweet momentarily, and the market will interpret this latest tremor inside the White House as even more bullish.

  • Suggesting New York Times Isn't Dying, In Spite of Digital Subscription Growth, is Fake News

    I’ve read a lot of drivel the past few weeks about the $NYT and how their burgeoning online digital ad business was booming — mostly by disaffected leftards who have somehow tethered themselves to the old gray lady in an effort to defy Trump.

    Why? You’re fucking stupid.

    The business has been cut in half since 2008. They’ve gone from raking in $300m per quarter in earnings to $40m. This isn’t a god damned online journal. The core business is print and there’s no way digital can make up for the lost ground in print, without having a profound effect on the way the company is staffed.

    Does this revenue trend look healthy to you?
    NYT3

    Earnings are down 50-75% since 2008.

    NYT2

    The stock has been cut in half over the past 8 years.

    NYT

    That’s what a slow death looks like, not a revival spearheaded by amazing digital revenue growth.

    Trump

    Prove to me the New York Times isn’t dying.

    Pro tip: you can’t.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

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Today’s News 12th February 2017

  • An Alleged Muslim Spy Ring – Is This Why Rex Tillerson Cleaned House?

    Submitted by Duan via Free Market Shooter blog,

    Shortly after Trump took office, and before Rex Tillerson was even confirmed as Secretary of State, a slew of State Department officials were removed from their positions (or were forced to resign) as part of an effort to “clean house” at the State Department.  The whole affair was haphazardly covered by the media, especially by Jeff Bezos’s blog, which insinuated that the departures were “an ongoing mass exodus of senior Foreign Service officers who don’t want to stick around for the Trump era.”

    Further analysis revealed that the officials were actually removed from their positions shortly after Tillerson visited the State Department office in Foggy Bottom prior to his confirmation:

    “Any implication that that these four people quit is wrong,” one senior State Department official said. “These people are loyal to the secretary, the President and to the State Department. There is just not any attempt here to dis the President. People are not quitting and running away in disgust. This is the White House cleaning house.”

    And, just a few weeks after the fact, it appears we know why Tillerson was so quick to purge existing staffers: he just didn’t trust them.  It also appears his mistrust was more than justified.

    On January 29th, United States Special Forces executed an operation inside Yemen, against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), with the aim of gathering intelligence and killing leaders of the group.  The raid was planned under the Obama administration, but the decision to execute the raid was “punted” to Trump, using the pretext of waiting for a “low loom” (moonless) night to execute the raid with maximum secrecy:

    While the operation had been proposed, it was never green-lighted. Kahl said Obama felt going the mission would mark a “significant escalation” in Yemen and should be left to the next administration to decide.

     

    “Obama … believed this represented a significant escalation of U.S. involvement in Yemen, and therefore … thought the next administration should take a careful look and run a careful process,” he told the WSJ.

    In addition, defense officials expected the Trump administration to be more willing to approve dangerous missions, something that was almost certainly known by any remaining personnel who stayed on after Obama left office:

    While seemingly indicative of a more aggressive stance by Trump, one official described the raid and new proposal as an outgrowth of earlier Obama-era operations that have pushed al-Qaida militants from their sanctuaries into areas and provided more opportunities for U.S. strikes.

     

    “We expect an easier approval cycle [for operations] under this administration,” another defense official said.

    Navy SEAL William “Ryan” Owens

    Though the Trump administration attempted to push the raid as a success, at very best, the mission was anything but, resulting in the death of Navy SEAL William “Ryan” Owens, as well as injuries to three other servicemen. While the commandos did everything necessary to maintain the element of surprise, it appears as though AQAP adversaries on the ground had advance warning of the attack:

    “Initial reports are always wrong, but it doesn’t appear to be a failure of planning or intelligence,” said the former special forces officer.

     

    Almost immediately, the raiding force on the ground took intense fire, according to the briefing paper and a senior military official. Occupants of the targeted house and its compound, along with their guard force, moved to a separate cluster of houses nearby where families, including women and children, were staying. Armed women fired on the U.S. and Emirati forces.

     

    “There were a lot of female combatants who were part of this,” said Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, on Monday. “We saw during this operation, as it was taking place, that female fighters ran to pre-established positions — as though they had trained to be ready, and trained to be combatants — and engaged with us.”

    While most know about the Yemen raid, most do not know about the dismissal of the three Aman brothers, Abid, Imran, and Jamal Awan.  On February 2nd, they were abruptly removed from their positions of managing information technology for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.  Though they were initially suspected merely of stealing equipment, a connection with the previously-hacked computers of Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) revealed something far more sinister:

    Three members of the intelligence panel and five members of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs were among the dozens of members who employed the suspects on a shared basis. The two committees deal with many of the nation’s most sensitive issues and documents, including those related to the war on terrorism.

    As Mad World News reported, the Aman brothers were hired by the Obama administration, and access to top secret information regarding military operationsThe committees they allegedly worked for had access to “the most sensitive and secretive government intelligence, including covert anti-terrorism activity… including the Yemen operation”:

    The House Oversight Committee

    The brothers were assigned access to three members of the intelligence panel and five members of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs along with dozens of congressmen who employed the suspects on a shared basis.  This gave them direct access to our military secrets, like missions carried out by Navy SEAL Team Six.

     

    They retained their jobs after Obama left, which is not unheard of since their positions were not seen as political appointments.  However, they were fired by Trump’s administration within hours after Navy SEAL William Ryan Owens was killed in Yemen during the top secret raid on Al-Qaeda operatives. 

    So, in case you’ve gotten lost, here’s a recap of the timeline of events:

    • Jan 20 – Trump takes office, and DoD officials are expecting him to be more willing to approve dangerous missions
    • Jan 26 – Rex Tillerson visits State Department headquarters prior to his confirmation, and either terminates or forces the resignation of many existing State Department personnel
    • Jan 29 – The botched Yemen raid is executed, resulting in the death of Navy SEAL Owens
    • Feb 1 – Rex Tillerson is confirmed by President Trump as Secretary of State
    • Feb 2 – The Awan brothers are terminated on suspicion that they accessed congressional computers without permission

    As Mad World News previously stated,

    “…it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to connect the dots.  The firing of the Awan brothers is linked to the Yemen raid where al-Qaeda knew we were coming, and it tragically ended with Navy SEAL Owens being killed in action.” 

    The mainstream media seemed far more interested in obfuscating the details regarding the Tillerson terminations than they were in covering what could be one of the most dangerous intelligence leaks in years, of which there has been but a peep out of any major news outlet.  Captain Joseph R. John (Navy-Ret.) has stated that he believes the Muslim Brotherhood “fifth column” has “infiltrated U.S. Government,” and if he is correct, the Awan brothers could very well be a part of this infiltration.

    Yet, there as been but a peep of information about the Awan brothers from nearly all major news outlets.  Are they in jail?  What are they accused of?  Does the Trump administration suspect them of leaking details about military operations to terrorist organizations?  And most importantly, if so, did these three men directly or indirectly contribute to the death of Owens during the Yemen raid?

    One thing is for certain – as Politico seemed to take delight in stating, “Trying to nail down who the leakers are is like trying to count the cockroaches under the couch.”  However, it seems most of the “leaks” are coming from Obama holdovers.  Which makes Tillerson’s “cleaning house” look like not just the correct move, it leaves you wondering if he did enough cleaning house.

    Just don’t expect to hear that from the mainstream media anytime soon.

  • "Panic" Spreads Among Hispanics After Hundreds Of Illegal Immigrants Arrested

    As reported earlier, one of the immediate consequences of the Trump immigration executive order – and one which has so far gone largely unchallenged – has been a crackdown against illegal immigrants residing in the US. This promptly led Mexico’s Foreign Ministry to say on Thursday it has intensified efforts to protect Mexican migrants, “foreseeing the hardening of measures by immigration authorities in the U.S., as well as possible constitutional violations during raids or in due process.”

    We also noted that according to the WSJ, influential Mexicans are pushing “an aggressive and perhaps risky strategy to fight a likely increase in deportations of their undocumented compatriots in the U.S.: jam U.S. immigration courts in hopes of causing the already overburdened system to break down.” The proposal calls for ad campaigns advising migrants in the U.S. to take their cases to court and fight deportation if detained. “The backlog in the immigration system is tremendous,” said former Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda. The idea is to double or triple the backlog, “until [U.S. President Donald] Trump desists in this stupid idea,” he added.

    For now, however, these efforts to, well, trump Trump’s anti-illegal alien directive have failed to generate traction, and according to Reuters, federal immigration agents arrested hundreds of undocumented immigrants in at least four states this week in what officials on Friday called routine “enforcement actions.” The enforcement actions took place in Atlanta, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and surrounding areas, said David Marin, director of enforcement and removal for the Los Angeles field office of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.


    U.S. ICE officers conduct a targeted enforcement operation in Atlanta on

    February 9, 2017.

    Marin called the five-day operation an “enforcement surge.”

    While the agency did not release a total number of detainees, the Atlanta office alone, which covers three states, arrested 200 people, Bryan Cox, a spokesman for the office, said. An additional 161 arrests were made the Los Angeles area in a region that included seven highly populated counties, Marin also said that of the people arrested in Southern California, only 10 did not have criminal records, and of those, five had prior deportation orders.


    U.S. ICE officers detain a suspect as they conduct a targeted enforcement

    operation in LA on February 7, 2017

    “The rash of these recent reports about ICE checkpoints and random sweeps, that’s all false and that’s dangerous and irresponsible,” Marin said. “Reports like that create a panic.”  He described the arrests as largely routine.

    Perhaps, yet we have to recall one time in the past 8 years in which a story about mass illegal immigrant arrests made the landing page of Reuters or the WSJ.

    Others agree. Michael Kagan, a professor of immigration law at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, said immigration advocates are concerned that the arrests could signal the beginning of more aggressive enforcement and increased deportations under Trump. “It sounds as if the majority are people who would have been priorities under Obama as well,” Kagan said in a telephone interview.

    “But the others may indicate the first edge of a new wave of arrests and deportations.”

    Which likely explains why there is suddenly a palpable sense a panic among Hispanic communities, as The Hill reports.

    One of the first cases to receive national attention, the deportation of Arizona resident Guadalupe Garcia de Rayos, has put undocumented and mixed status communities on edge. “It’s fair to say we’re all extremely troubled by the deportation action we saw take place yesterday in Arizona,” said Janet Murguia, president of the National Council of La Raza. “The first deportation [after] his executive order is of a working mom with two U.S. kids,” she added.


    U.S. ICE officers conduct a targeted enforcement operation in Atlanta, on
    February 9, 2017.

    And yet, what Trump is doing is precisely what he had promised to do. On the campaign trail, Trump initially promised to enact a deportation force to deport all 11 million undocumented immigrants, starting with dangerous criminals. “They’re going to be out of here so fast, your head will spin,” Trump told Fox News in August. “As far as the rest, we’re going to go through the process, like they are now — perhaps with a lot more energy.”  As president-elect, Trump said his government would seek out “three or four million” dangerous criminals immigrants for deportation. 

    Many Hispanic advocates feel that the Garcia de Rayos case shows the Trump administration will aggressively pursue all undocumented immigrants.  “This reaffirms that when the Trump administration said they would go after criminals, they really meant everybody,” Murguia said.

    The perception that Trump is shifting back to his early campaign proposals has shaken many Hispanics, including many who are legally in the country, the Hill noted.

    “The uncertainty and the confusion is prevalent with undocumented, legal residents and also citizens,” said Telemundo anchorman José Diaz-Balart. “There are millions of mixed status families in the United States of America.”  And community organizers admit they have few tools to quell the trepidation.

    NCLR is one of many organizations that has set up a legal defense structure and started programs to inform immigrants of their rights, but under current law, an undocumented immigrant who comes in contact with federal enforcement officers has relatively few options. “We want people to stay calm and we want to give them assurances but we can’t give them assurances,” Murguía said.

     

    Diaz-Balart, the anchor for Noticieros Telemundo, the network’s nightly news program, is hosting a town hall event Sunday for his viewers to better understand the administration’s immigration actions. “[Immigrants are] now asking, ‘how is this going to have an impact on me?'” said Diaz-Balart. 

     

    “It’s a town hall that is going to be dealing with the questions that we hear over and over and over again from the people that we serve,” he said. “It’s not about telling people what they want to hear, it’s about making sure the people are informed about things.”

    In the first days of the Trump administration, immigration has emerged as the most important target for the president, seemingly of greater importance than repealing Obamacare or cutting taxes. Through his executive orders, Trump has gone after so-called “sanctuary cities” that restrict the degree to which their law enforcement agents collaborate with federal immigration enforcement. He has also redefined who could be labeled a “criminal alien.” That redefinition greatly expanded the number of undocumented immigrants liable to be targeted for removal, beyond the “three or four million” that Trump had mentioned.

    José Magaña-Salgado, an attorney at the Immigrant Legal Resource Center, cited a study that said as many as 8 million people could now be targeted for deportation.  Under Trump’s order, the definition of criminality was expanded to include misdemeanors like illicitly crossing the border.  It also expanded the definitions for immigrants to be considered priorities for deportation. Foreigners who have “committed acts that constitute a chargeable criminal offense” are priorities, even before conviction. It also includes those who have committed “fraud or willful misrepresentation in connection with any official matter or application before a governmental agency,” a category that includes using fake Social Security numbers to work.

    To be sure, lacking a legal challenge  for the time being, Hispanics are refuting the logic of Trump’s order.

    While Trump campaigned on the prospect of removing dangerous criminals, Magaña-Salgado said the very structure of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would provide an incentive for indiscriminate enforcement. “The general philosophy of ICE agents and CBP agents, they view their job as expelling as many people from the country as possible,” said Magaña-Salgado. “It benefits them to have high deportation numbers because they can justify their budget, they can justify their mission,” he added.  And cases like Garcia de Rayos provide an easy target for federal agents.

     

    Garcia de Rayos was apprehended during a yearly inspection at her local ICE headquarters, in which she voluntarily presented herself keeping with orders given to her when she was originally apprehended. As a low-risk offender — Garcia de Rayos was convicted of using a fake Social Security Number to work — she was not on the Obama administration’s deportation priority list despite have been slated for deportation by an immigration judge.

    She was, however, very much likely an eligible Democrat voter, which while undiscussed is the bedrock behind Trump’s aggressive pursuit of undocumented illegal immigrants in the US.

    Beyond the detention of Garcia de Rayos, ICE conducted large raids this week on homes and workplaces that further alarmed Hispanic communities. Karen Tumlin, legal director of the National Immigration Law Center, said agents denied access to immigration lawyers after one such raid in Los Angeles that rounded up about 100 people. “Immigration attorneys flocked to the scene,” Tumlin said. “They were shut out.” “[It’s] absolutely unacceptable and potentially unlawful,” she added.

    Similar cases to Garcia de Rayos could also attract the attention of federal enforcement officers because of the shortage of immigration judges to prosecute cases. People who have already been slated for deportation by a judge can be removed without further due process. The lack of immigration judges is “certainly going to be a constraint,” said Magaña-Salgado. 

    But agents can use expedited removal procedures, curbed under the Obama administration but not taken off the books, to get detainees to accept a quick deportation over a lengthy wait for an immigration judge, in many cases while incarcerated.

    “They’re going to use that tool to take people out of the court system and due process,” Magaña-Salgado said. It will also hinder the previously discussed attempt by influential Mexicans to “jam US courts” by increasing the number of deportation cases. Ultimately, that strategy may dramatically backfire if the law were to be further streamlined.

    Meanwhile, Hispanic activists warn that going after easy targets can damage communities in several ways.

    People who would otherwise be economically active could go into hiding, trust in law enforcement agencies could be diminished, and dangerous criminals could more easily slip through the cracks as federal agents pursue non-dangerous undocumented immigrants.

     

    People want to comply with the enforcement agencies,” Murguia said. “They’re supposed to report in with these check ins; if they see they’re going to put themselves at risk, it’s a very difficult situation.” 

     

    “These are gut wrenching, heart-breaking stories,” she added. “In a civilized society, we can’t find a better way to deal with these issues?”

    Well, Obama tried, and failed. Which is why “civilized” American society is now where it is, and reflecting the will of the majority.

  • North Korea Launches Ballistic Missile, Tests Trump

    With the news cycle clearly far less interested in Trump’s golf game or Abe’s handicap, just before 8am local time (6pm ET), North Korea decided to provide CNN with some “exciting” news when it fired a ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast, South Korea’s military said, in what was the latest test of Trump’s resolve to retaliate to North Korean provocations.

    This was the first missile launch by North Korea since Donald Trump – who has repeatedly threatened of taking retaliatory measures against such an act – took office. The launch also comes just one day after the US Air Force test-fired a Minuteman ICBM from California.

    Cited by Reuters, a US official said that while the U.S. military had detected the missile launch and was assessing it, it was probably not an intercontinental ballistic missile.

    The missile was launched from an area named Panghyon in North Korea’s western region and flew about 500 kilometers (300 miles) before falling into the sea, the South’s Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in statements. “Our assessment is that it is part of a show of force in response to the new U.S. administration’s hardline position against the North,” the office said.

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The South’s military said Seoul and Washington were analyzing the details of the launch. Yonhap News Agency said the South Korean military is assessing the launch to confirm whether it was a Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile, which has a designed flight range of 3,000 kilometers (1,800 miles). The U.S. military also said it had detected a missile test launch by the North and was assessing it, according to a U.S. defense official in Washington.

    Japan’s government said it had asked the UN to issue “a strong message” against North Korea for the latest provocation.

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The North tried to launch a Musudan eight times last year during the Obama presidency, but most attempts failed. One launch that sent a missile 400 km (250 miles), more than half the distance to Japan, was considered a success by officials and experts in the South and the United States.

    Sunday’s launch comes a day after Trump held a summit meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and said he agreed to work to ensure strong defense against North Korea’s threat. South Korea’s presidential Blue House said a National Security Council meeting was called and chaired by President Park Geun-hye’s top national security advisor.

    One month ago, during his New Year speech, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said that the country was close to test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile and state media said such a launch could come at any time, leading Trump to write on Twitter, “It won’t happen!” Trump did not give specifics of how he’d stop Kim’s missile development.

    He may have to now.

    At the time, Kim’s comments prompted a vow of an “overwhelming” response from U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis. North Korea conducted two nuclear tests and a number of missile-related tests at an unprecedented rate since early last year and was seen by experts and officials to be making progress in its weapons capabilities.

    If indeed today’s launch is a “show of force” in response to the US hardline position, the entire world will be closely watching to see if Trump is about to fold again as he did on Friday, when he was called a “paper tiger” by China’s media after reversing his position on the “One China” policy, and agreeing that he would not challenge China’s legacy status with Taiwan.

    According to the press, the White House – and president Trump at Mar-A-Lago – has been briefed on the launch.

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    We expect either a very angry tweet in response shortly, or a mushroom cloud to emerge in the middle of Pyongyang any minute.

  • Jim Rogers: "We're About To Have The Worst Economic Problems Of A Lifetime, A Lot Of People Will Disappear"

    "Get prepared," warns billionaire commodity guru Jim Rogers, "because we're going to have the worst economic problems in your lifetime and a lot of people are going to disappear." In this wide-ranging interview with MacroVoices' Erik Townsend, the investing legend discusses everything from whether Russia is being scapegoated ("yes, ask Victoria Nuland"), the war against cash ("governments love it… they want to control everything"), to his views on gold and the demise of freedom.

    Full podcast below:

    https://publisher.podtrac.com/player/NzE4NDQ1/Nzc1

    Key Excerpts…

    Are Russians the bad guys?

    Well I do know that during the last administration, Mr. Obama's administration as you probably remember we started, we tried to pull of an illegal coup in Ukraine, we got caught at it, what's her name, Victoria Nuland, whatever the woman’ name the State Department they have there several pieces of evidence where we know she tried to instigate an illegal coup then of course the Russians outsmarted us and so the State Department started blaming it on the Russians and the hype against the Russians has gotten bigger and bigger ever since after we started– or tried to start, tried to instigate the illegal coup Crimea and Ukraine.

     

    So yes we are certainly at fault to some extent and obviously you then, when you're caught you've got to keep the rhetoric up and keep throwing more and more accusations and so the State Department has done that.

     

    I know that before the illegal coup Obama, Bush everybody was trying to be friends with the Russians rightly so, cold war had ended long ago, the Russians wanted to be friends with America. We didn’t need NATO anymore. Who needed the Cold War etc. all the money we were spending on some of these arms manufactures and soldiers so until the illegal coup took place we were all trying to be great friends you remember George Bush said I looked him in the eye and he's a man I can admire and work with etc.

     

    So now of course the Democrats especially since they lost the election are trying to blame it on the Russians. It's unfathomable to me how the Russians could have determined the outcome of the elections. Maybe they planted a story a two but so what? It's inconceivable to me that the Russians could influence much less determine the election.

     

    I think if we start having investigations of the illegal voting I'm afraid we're going to find more for the Democrats than for the Republicans places big cities in America won't name names but so far the few investigations that have taken place we find that the voting irregularities are in big cities which are Democratic strongholds.

    On the Greater Depression…

    …get prepared because we're going to have the worst economic problems we've had in your lifetime or my lifetime and when that happens a lot of people are going to disappear.

    In 2008 Bear Stearns disappeared, Bear Stearns had been around over 90 years. Lehman Brothers disappeared. Lehman Brothers had been around over 150 years. A long, long time, a long glorious history they’ve been through wars, depression, civil war they've been through everything and yet they disappear.

    So the next time around it's going to be worse than anything we've seen and a lot of institutions, people, companies even countries, certainly governments and maybe even countries are going to disappear. I hope you get very worried.

    when you start having bear markets as you I’m sure well know one bad thing happens and another bad thing happens and these things snowball just like in bull markets good news comes out then more good news comes out the next thing you know you're five or six or seven years into a bull market.

    Well bear markets do the same thing and so we have a lot of bad news on the horizon. I haven't even gotten to war. I haven't even gotten to trade war or anything like that but you know things do go wrong.

    On Trump and the possibility of trade wars…and real wars

    Mr. Trump has also said he's going to have trade war with China, Mexico, Japan, Korea a few other people that he has named. He swore that on his first day in office he would impose 45% tariffs against China. He's been there three weeks, two or three weeks and he hasn't done it yet but he still got it in his head I'm sure or maybe he's just another politician like all the rest of them. He says one thing and he doesn't mean it at all but he does have at least three people in high levels in his group who are very, very keen to have trade wars with China and other people.

     

    If he does that Eric, it's all over. I mean history is very clear that trade wars always lead to problems, often to disaster, sometimes even to real war, a shooting war. So I don't know, I'm not sure Mr. Trump knows. He said so many things and many of the things are contradictory. Now if he's not going to have trade wars with various people then chances are for a while happy days are here…

     

    [The dollar is] going to go too high, may turn into a bubble, at which point I hope I'm smart enough to sell it because at some point the market forces are going to cause the dollar to come back down because people are going to realize, oh my gosh, this is causing a lot of turmoil, economic problems in the world and it's damaging the American economy. At that point the smart guys will get out. I hope I'm one of them.

    On governments continued war against cash…

    Governments are always looking out for themselves first and it's the same old thing you know Eric this has been going on for hundreds of years. The Indians recently did the same thing they withdrew 86% percent of the currency in circulation and they have now made it illegal to spend more than, I think it's about $4000 in any cash transaction. In France you cannot use more than, I think it's a €1000.

     

    Many countries are already doing this. Some states in the U.S. you cannot make cash transactions above a certain amount. Governments love it. Then they can control you. If you want to go and buy a cup of coffee they know how many you drink, where you buy them etc. if they can all put it into electronic formats and they will the world is all going electronic. My children will probably never go to a bank when they're adults, maybe never go to a post office maybe even never to a doctor or rarely to a doctor when they're adults.

     

    So the Internet and the computers changing everything that we know, money can certainly be easily converted to computers not today because there are still, some people who don't have computers and the system is not ready it but it can be done and when it's done the governments are going to be very, very happy they going to say they're doing it for our own good Eric, this is not them, this is for our good. That they're doing this, but it’s coming and it's going to be a whole different world in which we live. Probably we are not going to have as many freedoms as we have now even though we are already losing our freedoms at a significant pace.

    On the demise of freedom…

    …history shows that people always would like a little more safety and a willing to “give up some things for more safety and security.” Benjamin Franklin said well anybody who would give up some freedoms for security is going to wind up with neither security nor freedom and they deserve to lose both and of course that's the way it is.

     

    I’m not the first to realize that people who are rising to become dictators start taking away freedoms first in Germany they took away the guns, they wouldn’t let people have guns in Germany and lots of places have done that or things like that.

     

    In America now you and I probably remember when we were kids, you had to have a search warrant, now they can just break your door down if they have what they consider enough good reasons, they don't even have to go to the court and get a search warrant anymore.

     

    So it's already happening and if you said to somebody that you know they could break your door down they say they’re not going to break my door down I’m not a terrorist or a drug dealer, well that's how it all starts people say it's OK but then the next thing you know they're breaking your door down too.

     

    So it's already happening do I like it? No I don't like it but I'm not the first– what was his name Goebbels the German who said if you say something to people enough times they believe it no matter how absurd it is and you and I have certainly seen it in the news in America you say something enough times people believe it and it becomes politically correct and then you can’t even say something that's not politically correct in America any more.

    Full Transcript available here.

  • The Megacity Economy: How Seven Types Of Global Cities Stack Up

    Back in 1950, close to 30% of the global population lived in cities.

    As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, that has shifted dramatically, and by 2050, a whopping 70% of people will live in urban areas – some of which will be megacities housing tens of millions of people.

    This trend of urbanization has been a boon to global growth and the economy. In fact, it is estimated today by McKinsey that the 600 top urban centers contribute a whopping 60% to the world’s total GDP.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

     

    SEVEN TYPES OF GLOBAL CITIES

    With so many people moving to urban metropolitan areas, the complexion of cities and their economies change each day.

    The Brookings Institute has a new way of classifying these megacities, using various economic indicators.

    According to their analysis, here’s what differentiates the seven types of global cities:

    Important note: This isn’t intended to be a “ranking” of cities. However, on the infographic, cities are sorted by GDP per capita within each typology, and given a number based on where they stand in terms of this metric. This is just intended to show how wealthy the average citizen is per city, and is not a broader indicator relating to the success or overall ranking of a city.

    1. Global Giants

    These six cities are the world’s leading economic and financial centers. They are hubs for financial markets and are characterized by large populations and a high concentration of wealth and talent.

    Examples: New York City, Tokyo, London

    2. Asian Anchors

    The six Asian Anchor cities are not as wealthy as the Global Giants, however they leverage attributes such as infrastructure connectivity and talented workforces to attract the most Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) out of any other metro grouping.

    Examples: Hong Kong, Seoul, Singapore

    3. Emerging Gateways

    These 28 cities are large business and transportation hubs for major national and regional markets in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. While they have grown to reach middle-income status, they fall behind other global cities on many key competitiveness factors such as GDP and FDI.

    Examples: Mumbai, Cape Town, Mexico City, Hangzhou

    4. Factory China

    There are 22 second and third-tier Chinese cities reliant on export manufacturing to power economic growth and international engagement. Although Factory China displays a GDP growth rate that is well above average, it fails to reach average levels of innovation, talent, and connectivity.

    Examples: Shenyang, Changchun, Chengdu

    5. Knowledge Capitals

    These are 19 mid-sized cities in the U.S. and Europe that are considered centers of innovation, with elite research universities producing talented workforces.

    Examples: San Francisco, Boston, Zurich

    6. American Middleweights

    These 16 mid-sized U.S. metro areas are relatively wealthy and house strong universities, as well as other anchor institutions.

    Examples: Orlando, Sacramento, Phoenix

    7. International Middleweights

    These 26 cities span across several continents, internationally connected by human and investment capital flow. Like their American middleweight counterparts, growth has slowed for these cities since the 2008 recession.

    Examples: Vancouver, Melbourne, Brussels, Tel Aviv

  • What Form Will The Great Confiscation Take – And How Can We Prepare?

    Submitted by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

    For what seems like decades, people have been warning that the next time some over-leveraged corner of the financial system implodes, bank and brokerage accounts will be either confiscated by desperate governments or lost during the resulting chaos.

    Here, from 2012, is a representative warning from gold mining eminence grise Jim Sinclair:

    My Dear Extended Family,

     

    In bankruptcy of your bank, broker or fund, you can find your assets in the majority of cases are backing the liabilities of the entity in front of yourselves. This is why you must act to protect yourself.

     

    No one in this financial world is going to do it for you, and few will have the courage to recommend you escape Street Name. You can wake up one day and find out that your investments are gone.

     

    The insurance programs will function as long as the incidents of bankruptcy are isolated events.

     

    In a systemic collapse the insurance funds are not capitalized to meet the potential obligations. The guarantor you are relying on will have to be bailed out.

     

    For securities there are only three ways to hold them:

     

    1. Street name.
    2. Direct registration.
    3. Certificate form.

     

    Anyone advising you to stay with the Street Name option is a babbling idiot not interested at all in your welfare.

     

    In street name the inferred ownership is the broker or bank, not you. In Direct Registrationand Certificate form, the distinct ownership is you.

     

    In 99.9% of the cases of retirement accounts the answer is you are in Street Name.

     

    How are your securities held? Do you even know? I dare you to ask!

     

    Do you know what your broker’s capital ratio is? Find out as that number is the order of magnitude at which your broker is gambling on with primarily your money. I dare you to ask.

     

    This time around those investors that are too lazy to consider protecting themselves will be demolished.

     

    How would you like your gold shares at $3500 gold, outperforming gold, and one morning you wake up to having nothing anymore? You now are behind the back burner in a bankruptcy situation with any fiduciary.

     

    The system and their minions will do everything to keep you trapped in Street Name. Articles will be published trying to put you back to sleep on this issue.

     

    Wake up, please.

    The fact that this mass confiscation hasn’t yet happened doesn’t mean it won’t, says Jim Rickards, whose previous bestsellers Currency Wars and The Death of Money were already pretty apocalyptic. He believes that a coordinated closure/restructuring/confiscation of the banking/brokerage industry is imminent. Here’s an excerpt from a recent column:

    In that interim period between the crisis and the time the IMF can react, central banks will be paralyzed. They’re likely going to lock down the system.

     

    When I say lock down, they’ll start with money market funds. I can’t think of a greater misnomer than the money market funds. People think that money market funds are money. They’re not money; they’re mutual funds regulated by the SEC. People think they can just call up their broker, sell to the money market fund and the money’s in my bank the next day.

     

    That will not be true in this crisis because everyone will be doing the same thing. That is what happened in 2008 when Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson went to the White House and said to the President that the system’s melting down and he must act.

     

    That was such a shock then, that when it happens again they’re not going to give you your money. They’re going to lock it down. The problem is that when it is spreading you can’t just lock down part of the system.

     

    If you lock down money market funds, people are just going to take their money out of the banks. Then you’re going to have to close the banks. Then people are going to sell their stocks, then you’re going to have to close the stock market. Every time you shut one path to liquidity, people are going to turn to another path.

     

    It happened in part in 1914, 1931, 1933 and to gold in 1971. There’s no precedent for a total freeze but we’re getting closer to that point.

     

    The question is, how do you protect yourself against that? There’s only so much you can do.

     

    I don’t recommend running down and pulling all your money out of the bank. I would not have more than the insured amount, which in the U.S. is $250,000. You can spread it between your selected banks so that each is backed and insured up to the limit.

    Rickard’s solution is right out of the stacker playbook:

    In the world described, the dollar price of gold will approach the $10,000-level if not much higher. But when all of this begins to play out, you’re not going to be able to get gold.

     

    Because of this, gold and silver need to be in physical form, in safe storage, and a non-bank. Putting it in a safety deposit box in a bank is troublesome because by the time you want it the most, that will be when the banks are going to be closed.

    Charles Hugh Smith offers some other possible responses:

    So what’s difficult to expropriate? It’s impossible to expropriate one’s skills, experience and social capital. These are intangible forms of capital and so they cannot be confiscated like gold, currency, land, etc.

     

    Land and homes are difficult to expropriate for two reasons: private property is the backbone of capitalism and democracy, and the state confiscating private property would very likely spark a political insurrection that would diminish or threaten the power and wealth of the privileged Elites.

     

    Secondly, it’s very costly for the state to maintain the productive output of real property it has confiscated. Guards must be posted, sabotage repaired, and the immense difficulties of coercing a rebellious populace to continue working what they once owned for the benefit of the state and its privileged Elites must be solved and paid for.

     

    The state can expropriate farms, orchards and workshops for back taxes (or some similar extra-legal methodology), but how do you force people to work these properties productively?

     

    As a general rule, whatever the super-wealthy own will be protected from expropriation. Private real property is the foundation of the Elites’ wealth, and while the land of debt-serfs may well be confiscated for back taxes (the wealthy will buy exemptions from rising taxes), those who own land and buildings free and clear constitute a political force to be reckoned with.

     

    The state will also have difficulty confiscating assets that are outside its reach.This explains the popularity of owning assets in other nations, and the debate over cryptocurrencies: will states be able to confiscate all cryptocurrencies at will, or is that technically unfeasible?

     

    The main takeaway is this: your skills, knowledge and social capital will emerge unscathed on the other side of the re-set wormhole. Land and real property you own free and clear (no debt) is likely to remain in your possession, as long as you can pay soaring taxes/junk fees during the crisis phase. Your financial assets held in centrally controlled institutions will not make it through unscathed; they are simply too easy for central authorities to expropriate.

    It’s easy, as the world’s zombie economies just keep shuffling along, to start assuming that the current system will endure forever. That would be wrong, and almost certainly the above warnings will someday seem prescient. All the more reason to forget about timing, and keep buying real assets.

  • Did The Judges Lie: New Report Finds 72 Terrorists Came From Countries Covered By Trump Ban

    The federal judge who halted President Donald Trump's travel ban was wrong in stating that no one from the seven countries targeted in Trump's order has been arrested for extremism in the United States since the 2001 terrorist attacks. In fact, as a new report finds, 72 individuals from the seven 'mostly Muslim countries' covered by President Trump's "extreme vetting" executive order have been convicted of terrorism since 9/11.

    As AP first reported, during a hearing in Seattle last week, Judge Robartasked a Justice Department lawyer how many arrests of foreign nationals from the countries have occurred since 9/11. When the lawyer said she didn't know, Robart answered his own question: 

    "Let me tell, you, the answer to that is none, as best I can tell. You're here arguing on behalf of someone that says we have to protect the United States from these individuals coming from these countries and there's no support for that."

    And now, having denied President Trump's appeal, claiming his policy "would cause irreparable injury," would cause irreparable injury, it seems the entire premise of the seven "mostly muslim" nations' mostly-peaceful, non-terrorist ways are in doubt as The Center for Immigration Studies shows that…

    A review of information compiled by a Senate committee in 2016 reveals that 72 individuals from the seven countries covered in President Trump's vetting executive order have been convicted in terror cases since the 9/11 attacks.

     

    In June 2016 the Senate Subcommittee on Immigration and the National Interest, then chaired by new Attorney General Jeff Sessions, released a report on individuals convicted in terror cases since 9/11. Using open sources (because the Obama administration refused to provide government records), the report found that 380 out of 580 people convicted in terror cases since 9/11 were foreign-born. The report is no longer available on the Senate website, but a summary published by Fox News is available here.

     

    The Center has obtained a copy of the information compiled by the subcommittee. The information compiled includes names of offenders, dates of conviction, terror group affiliation, federal criminal charges, sentence imposed, state of residence, and immigration history.

     

    The Center has extracted information on 72 individuals named in the Senate report whose country of origin is one of the seven terror-associated countries included in the vetting executive order: Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. The Senate researchers were not able to obtain complete information on each convicted terrorist, so it is possible that more of the convicted terrorists are from these countries.

     

    The United States has admitted terrorists from all of the seven dangerous countries:

    • Somalia: 20
    • Yemen: 19
    • Iraq: 19
    • Syria: 7
    • Iran: 4
    • Libya: 2
    • Sudan: 1
    • Total: 72

     

    According to the report, at least 17 individuals entered as refugees from these terror-prone countries. Three came in on student visas and one arrived on a diplomatic visa.

     

    At least 25 of these immigrants eventually became citizens. Ten were lawful permanent residents, and four were illegal aliens.

     

    These facts stand in stark contrast to the assertions by the Ninth Circuit judges who have blocked the president's order on the basis that there is no evidence showing a risk to the United States in allowing aliens from these seven terror-associated countries to come in.

    Finally, we reminder readers that while Charles Kurzman, a sociology professor at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, says his research shows no Americans have been killed in the U.S. at the hands of people from the seven countries – Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Sudan and Yemen – since Sept. 11, it's not quite right to say no one from those nations has been arrested or accused in an extremist-related plot while living in the U.S.

    23 percent of Muslim Americans involved with extremist plots since Sept. 11 had family backgrounds from the seven countries.

    So Judge claims ZERO but in fact the number is 72… Those darn 'alternative facts' are such trouble… or is it racist, sexist, mysoginist, and bogoted when the liberal judiciary is fact-checked?

  • There Are 66,719 Empty Mansions In Vancouver

    One year ago, when we first started discussing the Vancouver housing bubble, which as we first speculated – and was later confirmed – was the result of Chinese oligarch money-launderers parking “hot cash” in this offshore housing market (at least until a 15% property tax on foreign purchases made Seattle the new Vancouver), we said that Vancouver houses had become the de facto new Swiss bank account, and because of that the houses – once purchased – would remain a highly overprized, if vacant tribute to China’s soaring capital outflows.

    Now, courtesy of data by urban planner Andy Yan of Simon Fraser University’s City Program, this has been confirmed because according to the latest census numbers, as of 2016 there were 25,502 unoccupied or empty housing units in the City of Vancouver. Expanding to include the entire metro area, Yan found that vacant or temporarily occupied dwellings have more than doubled since 2001 to 66,719 last year as neighborhoods have hollowed out.


    A home sits empty, and awaiting demolition, at the corner of Parker Street

    and Victoria Drive in Vancouver on Wednesday

    Yan compared census data for Vancouver over several decades to see how the percentage of “unoccupied” units or ones “occupied solely by foreign residents and/or temporary present residents on Census Day” has doubled during that time the Vancouver Sun reported. In 1986, it was 4%. By 2016, it had doubled to 8.2%.

    “Exact definitions and measures have changed slightly over 30 years and patterns should be interpreted as directional,” Yan writes in a report released Wednesday. 

    The number of Vancouver’s prized, if vacant, mansions far outstrips other municipalities with 25,502 units that are either unoccupied or owned by temporary or foreign residents.

    Yan said most of these were concentrated in three areas: Coal Harbour, Marine Gateway and Joyce-Collingwood. Surrey came in second at 11,195, Burnaby at 5,829 and Richmond at 4,021. The focus has clearly been on the most expensive neighborhoods: the number of unoccupied units increased 25% in Richmond between the 2011 and 2016 census and by 28 per cent in Burnaby.

    To take advantage of this multi-million mansion ghost town, in November 2016 the Vancouver city council voted to approve a tax on empty homes, the first in Canada. Based on self-reporting owners, the tax is a one-per-cent charge on homes that are not principal residences or are not rented out for at least six months of the year. The goal was to improve Vancouver’s tight rental vacancy rate of 0.6 per cent by encouraging owners of thousands of empty units to offer them up for renting.

    Last Thursday, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson said that “it’s unacceptable for so much housing to be treated as a commodity,” even if, ironically, it was the government’s own actions which allowed the city’s houses to become an offshore piggybank for wealthy Chinese. “Housing is for homes first, and as investments second. Vancouver will continue to do all it can to maintain and protect affordable homes, and pursue all tools available to ensure the best use of all our housing.”

    As Bloomberg adds, concerns are growing that the Pacific Coast city is turning into a playground for the rich as luxury real estate squeezes industry and prices out the middle class. The provincial economy leads Canadian growth and job creation, yet its public schools are suffering from declining enrollment and households earn below the national median. Businesses using Canada’s largest port struggle to carve out space, while low-wage service sector jobs cater to wealthy retirees and tourists.

    While policymakers and real estate experts are calling for more housing supply and greater density near the city center to boost productivity and temper prices, the latest census figures show the opposite may be happening.

    Meanwhile, as a result of the influx of Chinese money, the number of residents on Vancouver’s west side, long favored by families and an easy commute to downtown, has fallen 3% since 2001, in contrast to 5% growth in population across the whole city, Yan said. The reason: median single-family house can cost as much as C$4.9 million in that area – about 65 times Vancouver’s median household income. And while the local population can no longer afford houses in the area, last year David Eby, a member of British Columbia’s legislative assembly, identified C$57.1 million worth of residences bought by students reporting no income in his west-side district of Point Grey.

    Such neighborhoods “have become just luxury items like Ferraris,” said Yan. “They’re not affordable for most local incomes.”

    The bad news for wealthy Americans, if only in Seattle for the time being, is that they will be next to feel the wrath of China’s billionaire “students” gobbling up any and every multi-million dollar house, unless of course the PBOC is successful in halting China’s unprecedented capital outflow.

    It also remains unclear if home sellers in the US Pacific coast accept bitcoin as payment.

  • Lindsay Lohan Urges Trump-Putin-Erdogan Meeting To Solve Global Refugee Crisis (No, Seriously)

    With “Hillary flunkies” proclaiming holier-than-thou perspectives on the president, after failing in their efforts to urge Americans not to vote for Trump, some ‘so-called’ celebrities are choosing not to “obstruct” Congress, but work towards a solution. Have no fear, Lindsay Lohan is here… to solve the Syrian refugee crisis!

    After visiting Syrian refugee camps with Turkish dictator president Recep Tayyip Erdogan (and a token seven-year-old refugee)

     

    Lindsay Lohan urged during a Facebook Live interview with the Daily Mail, that she wanted a sit-down meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Hollywood celebrities to discuss the Syrian refugee crisis.

    “I want to try to get the word out to Donald Trump bring him over there, have him see all the positive things they are doing over there and all America can do to help as well.”

    Lohan mentioned Brad Pitt, Angelina Jolie and Rachel McAdams as possible other celebrities she would want involved with the meeting.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/embed/video/1410489.html

    Why did the world’s leaders not think to ask Hollywood before? What fools, the solution was there the whole time… have celebrities adopt immigrants from the seven nations on Trump’s list. Brilliant!

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Today’s News 11th February 2017

  • Bernie Sanders Cut Off After Saying 'CNN Fake News, Whaddaya Think?'

    Hilarious stuff. The chimps over at CNN must have a keyword trigger for whenever a guest says the words ‘CNN Fake News’ — which prompts an instant audio cut. After all, calling a CNN journalist ‘fake news’ is no different than calling a black person the ‘N word.’

    Shills.
     

    Speaking of CNN fake news.

    fakenews

     

     

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • From New World Order To Hazy Global Disorder

    Submitted by Wayne Madsen via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The Donald Trump administration and the Brexit severance of ties between the United Kingdom and the European Union have, in a matter of a little over a half year, changed the world from a post-Cold War «new world order» based on American supremacy to a global «disorder» of altered alliances on a multipolar geo-political chessboard. In many respects, the new global disorder has also placed in jeopardy various post-World War II contrivances, including NATO, the Organization of American States (OAS), and the Australia-New Zealand-United States (ANZUS) alliance.

    Every international relations textbook and playbook can be thrown away with the advent of the new global disorder. Trump has kicked off his foreign policy by introducing an incoherent foreign policy. On one hand, Trump claims he wants to partner with Russia on the war against «radical Islamic terrorism». Yet, Trump has also indicated, through his UN ambassador Nicky Haley and Defense Secretary James Mattis, that he is committed to NATO and wants Russia to withdraw from Crimea. It is well known that the annual National Football League’s Super Bowl coordinates its patriotic military-oriented events with the Pentagon. In recent past years, U.S. troops serving in places like Afghanistan and Iraq were featured during and after the game on the host stadium’s jumbotron television screens.

    The 2017 Super Bowl in Houston was different. This year the live shot of U.S. troops with the 3rd Brigade Armored Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, was from a military base in Zagan, Poland. The Pentagon’s psychological operations specialists wanted to convey the message that under Trump, the new U.S. front lines were no longer in Afghanistan and Iraq in a war against Muslim radical insurgents but in Poland with Russia as the new «enemy». The optics simply do not match Trump’s statements about seeking closer ties with Russia.

    Trump has indicated he hopes to increase the U.S. «defense» budget to accommodate a 90,000 troop increase in Army ranks; a 350-ship Navy, including new aircraft carriers at $12 billion per vessel; an increase in Marine Corps battalions from 23 to 36; and 100 additional advanced fighter planes for the Air Force. That is equivalent to an increase in the military budget from $500 billion to $1 trillion over a ten-year period.

    Essentially, Trump’s national security team desires a military that can fight both Russia and China and that can be able to match every Russian and Chinese warplane, tank, and naval vessel in a battle space.

    Trump and his national security team of National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, Mattis, and other war hawks are also laying the ground for a military confrontation with Iran. Team Trump has helped ratchet up tensions with Iran by authorizing the sale to Saudi Arabia of $300 million worth of precision-guided missiles and billions of dollars of advanced F-16 fighters to Saudi Arabia’s vassal state of Bahrain. These packages were suspended by the Obama administration because of Saudi war crimes in Yemen and Bahrain’s bloody suppression of its Shi’a majority. Trump is greenlighting continued Saudi genocidal aggression in Yemen’s civil war. The Saudis and Bahrainis are now being positioned by Trump to gain a military advantage over Iran. Trump’s executive order banning Iraqis with valid U.S. visas, refugee documents, and, originally, permanent U.S. resident «green cards», irritated the Iraqi government, an ally of Iran, to the point that it vowed to limit Iraqi visas for U.S. contractors and journalists. That will only embolden Islamic State and Al Qaeda irregulars fighting U.S. military forces in the country. Anything that threatens the Baghdad government is welcome news to the Saudi regime.

    Trump, in a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, emphasized close U.S.-Turkish relations. In July 2016, after an attempted coup against Erdogan, Trump, in an interview with The New York Times, praised Erdogan’s handling of the insurrection. Since the coup attempt, Erdogan has ordered the arrest and imprisonment of hundreds of journalists, military and police officers, professors, civil servants, politicians, and businessmen for allegedly supporting the so-called «Fethullah Terrorist Organization (FETO)», a pejorative term for those affiliated with Turkish exile leader and former Erdogan ally Fethullah Gulen.

    Gulen is currently exiled in Pennsylvania and has been under the protection of the Central Intelligence Agency. However, Flynn and others part of the Trump security apparatus favor extraditing Gulen, a political refugee, to Turkey to face trial and certain imprisonment, torture, and possibly, execution.

    Trump’s dalliance with Erdogan will also jeopardize the safety of the Kurdish forces in Syria, which have been allied with the United States against the Islamic State, and the Kurdish Regional Government in Erbil in Iraq. Turkey considers the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds to be supporters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and if Trump sides with Erdogan against Kurdistan it will represent another double-cross by Washington of that beleaguered unrecognized nation. U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger abandoned the Kurds in the 1970s when he sacrificed their interests to the Iraqi military regime.

    Trump’s chief strategist Stephen Bannon is believed to have gotten involved in an internal «civil war» within the Vatican and which saw a virtual takeover of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta (SMOM) in Rome by Pope Francis. Bannon opposes what he considers the Pope’s «socialist ways». The Vatican may be a micro-state without a grand army, but a fracture in Vatican-Washington relations can only have a negative impact on the EU, NATO, and other traditional alliances.

    Trump’s rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal has thrown the Asia-Pacific region into «controlled chaos». Mattis’s first foreign trip as Secretary of Defense was to reassure South Korea and Japan of America’s military commitment. But the abandonment of the TPP by its largest cheerleader, the United States, has provided impetus to China’s alternative trading bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). America’s longtime ally Australia, a supporter of the TPP, is now anxious to join the RCEP. Trump’s bellicose phone call with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull over a refugee swap, has Australia incensed with Trump. While they are friendly adversaries with Australia over sports and national pride, New Zealand came to Australia’s defense in its spat with Trump. The bottom line is that the ANZUS alliance is now severely damaged but, in any event, it had long outlived its usefulness.

    Other testy phone exchanges between Trump and German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande also shook Euro-Atlantic bonds with Washington. Trump thundered to Hollande that the French and other NATO countries should pay the U.S. back for NATO expenditures. European Council president Donald Tusk called Trump a «threat» to the European Union.

    After a meeting at the White House with Jordan’s King Abdullah, Trump shocked the Israeli government when he told Israel that it should stop announcing new settlements in the West Bank. While Trump’s rhetoric suggests that he is the most pro-Israeli president to ever occupy the White House, his mercurial attitude toward Israel has some Middle East observers wondering whether Trump’s promise to move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem is merely window-dressing for a different U.S. policy in the region.

    The venerable, but relatively staid and useless OAS, headquartered in Washington, is not likely to survive Trump’s promise to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border or his saber-rattling toward Cuba, which has returned to the OAS and the Inter-American political system. Latin America and the Caribbean has more worthwhile alternatives to the OAS, including the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America, Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), all of which are free of U.S. membership and influence.

    It is a new global disorder but in this chaos, a return to a multipolar world and the end of «sole U.S. superpower» status may be a blessing in the long run. In the short run, however, the chaos will confuse every foreign ministry and international organization bureaucracy on every continent.

  • What Voter Fraud? – Mexican Citizen Sentenced To 8 Years In Prison After Illegally Voting In Texas

    Rosa Ortega, a Mexican citizen, has been convicted of voter fraud and sentenced to 8 years in prison in Texas after inadvertently admitting to election officials that she had been voting in Dallas County for years.  Apparently the voting fraud was discovered by chance after Ortega tried to register to vote in Tarrant County but was rejected after she admitted that she was not actually a citizen of the United States.  While she should have probably just accepted the rejection, Ortega pushed back by arguing that she had already been voting in Dallas County, an argument that drew the attention of investigators.

    Ortega’s voting privileges were approved in Dallas after she falsified her application by claiming to be a citizen.  Of course, liberal lawyers, funded by George Soros, have done a masterful job convincing courts around the country that verifying things like a person’s identity and citizenship status prior to allowing them to vote is unconstitutional.  Per CBS:

    Prosecutors say the reason officials at the elections department in Dallas didn’t stop the voter fraud from happening is because Rosa Ortega claimed she was a citizen on her application.

     

    Now the Tarrant County D.A.’s office is calling for those claims to be verified before handing out registration cards.

     

    Prosecutors said whether this case prompts elections officials to verify citizenship is an issue for the legislature.

    As you may recall, we wrote about a similar incident back in September in which the Cascade Mall shooter, a Turkish citizen, who killed 5 people in the state of Washington was found to have also been illegally voting for years.  And, just like the case above, Washington’s Secretary of State noted that there was no way to prevent the voter fraud because “we don’t have a provision in state law that allows either county elections officials or the Secretary of State’s office to verify someone’s citizenship.”

    “We don’t have a provision in state law that allows either county elections officials or the Secretary of State’s office to verify someone’s citizenship.  So, we’re in this place where we want to make sure we’re maintaining people’s confidence in the elections and the integrity of the process, but also that we’re giving this individual, like we would any voter, his due process. We’re moving forward, and that investigation is really coming out of the investigation from the shootings.”

     

    “The penalties are very serious. That’s why we want to make sure we’re very measured, and this is why we want to make sure we’re very calm and purposeful in how we move forward.  The stakes are very high on both sides. You want to keep the confidence level high, but you also want to protect the voting rights of everyone.”

     

    “Our hands are kind of tied, but make no mistake, we want to make sure that everybody has confidence that people casting ballots are eligible. This is certainly going to be a topic at next legislation.”

    Of course, Ortega’s lawyer tried to argue that a learning disability made it impossible for her to comprehend the complex laws that allow only U.S. citizens to vote in U.S. elections…Sure, because why wouldn’t Mexican citizens be allowed to vote in the U.S.? 

    Her attorney said she has a learning disability and was confused about the difference between being a citizen and a legal resident, so she thought she was allowed to vote.

     

    “The jury didn’t believe that story. They believed that the defendant knew exactly what she was doing, and they responded accordingly,” Prosecutor Jonathan White said.

     

    “Once she gets out of prison and she’s deported, does she bring her four minor children to Mexico? As a mother I think that would be a difficult choice for her,” Birdsall said.

    We’re currently awaiting confirmation from Democrats and MSNBC that there is still no concrete evidence of voter fraud and that Trump’s vow to conduct a “major investigation” into the topic is still just a political sham.

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    http://up.anv.bz/latest/anvload.html?key=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

  • Russian Government Considers Offering Snowden As "Gift" To President Trump, NBC Reports

    Echoing a now eerily prophetic comment by Edward Snowden in December that "there could be some kind of deal – give this guy to me as a present," NBC News reports, citing US intelligence official sources, that Russia is considering turning over Edward Snowden as a "gift" to President Donald Trump – who has called the NSA leaker a "spy" and a "traitor" who deserves to be executed.

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    In an interview streamed on Twitter in December, Snowden said being forced to return to the U.S. would be a human-rights violation but would also put to rest to accusations that he is a Russian spy.

    "A lot of people have asked me: Is there going to be some kind of deal where Trump says, 'Hey look, give this guy to me as some kind of present'? Will I be sent back to the U.S., where I'll be facing a show trial?" Snowden said. "Is this going to happen? I don't know. Could it happen? Sure. Am I worried about it? Not really, because here's the thing: I am very comfortable with the decisions that I've made. I know I did the right thing."

    Here’s what @snowden told me about the possibility of Putin handing him over as a good will gesture to the Trump administration. pic.twitter.com/LdoxE7cYvA

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    Then a month ago, none other than Michael Morell (former CIA acting director and Clinton supporter and adamant anti-Trumper) suggested that Snowden would make “the perfect inauguration gift” for Donald Trump.

    There are “a lot of reasons” that would “make sense” for Russia to take such a step, Morell wrote in his column in the Cipher Brief. The former CIA acting chief believes that “the Russian president needs a relationship with the incoming US president where the US overlooks Moscow’s anti-democratic activities at home and destabilizing activities abroad.”

     

    Moreover, “gifting” Snowden could also become a good way “to poke his [Putin’s] finger in the eye of his adversary Barack Obama,” Morell added.

     

    In addition, “this would give President Putin one of the things he desires the most – being seen at home and abroad as an equal of the US.”

    To which Edward Snowden’s lawyer Anatoly Kucherena exclaimed:

    “These statements coming from the former CIA head are stirring mixed feelings and can be seen only as a kind of utter nonsense, there is hardly any other way to put it,”

    But now, as NBC News reports, according to a senior U.S. official who has analyzed a series of highly sensitive intelligence reports detailing Russian deliberations, a Snowden handover is one of various ploys to "curry favor" with Trump. A second source in the intelligence community confirms the intelligence about the Russian conversations and notes it has been gathered since the inauguration.

    Snowden's ACLU lawyer, Ben Wizner, told NBC News they are unaware of any plans that would send him back to the United States.

    "Team Snowden has received no such signals and has no new reason for concern," Wizner said.

    Furthermore, Snowden's Russian lawyer told the state-run news agency last month that his client would like to return to the United States – with no criminal charges hanging over his head.

    "We hope very much that the new U.S. president would show some weighted approach to the issue and make the one and only correct decision – to stop prosecution against Edward Snowden," Kucherena said.

    Former deputy national security adviser Juan Zarate urged the Trump administration to be cautious in accepting any Snowden offer from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Again, seemingly based on pure speculation, Zarate tells NBC there is no way to predict if Putin will deliver Snowden — or when.

    "I think this is one of those rare cases where the stakes are so high, the diplomatic implications so deep, that anything can happen," he said.

     

    "So this could be a secret diplomatic deal made in the dead of night, or it could be a weeks-in-formation deal with lawyers on all sides," he said.

     

    "I think at the end of the day, Moscow holds the cards here."

     

    "For Russia, this would be a win-win. They've already extracted what they needed from Edward Snowden in terms of information and they've certainly used him to beat the United States over the head in terms of its surveillance and cyber activity," Zarate said.

     

    "It would signal warmer relations and some desire for greater cooperation with the new administration, but it would also no doubt stoke controversies and cases in the U.S. around the role of surveillance, the role of the U.S. intelligence community, and the future of privacy and civil liberties in an American context.

     

    "All of that would perhaps be music to the ears of Putin."

     

    In light of the sources (or lack of them), NBC News is forced to admit that The White House had no comment, but the Justice Department told NBC News it would welcome the return of Snowden, who currently faces federal charges that carry a minimum of 30 years in prison. Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said talk about returning Snowden is "nonsense."

    Finally, moments ago Snowden himself responded to the article in steide, tweeting that – if true – it would be evidence that contrary to repeat accusations and even a major Congressional report claiming otherwise, he had not worked with the Russians…

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    … followed moments by a Snowden retweet of a Katie Couric interview, explaining that he is "encouraged" by the possibility of being sent back to the US.

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  • The Reason The Elite Hate Trump So Much: He Is Opposed To The One World Agenda Of The Globalists

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    Have you ever wondered why the elite hate Donald Trump so much? There have certainly been many politicians throughout the years that have been disliked, but with Trump there is a hatred that is so intense that it almost seems tangible at times. During the campaign, they went to extraordinary lengths to destroy him, but it didn’t work. And now that he is president, the attacks against him have been absolutely relentless. So why is there so much animosity toward Trump? Is it just because he is not a member of their club?

    The truth, of course, is that it runs much deeper than that. Ultimately, the elite hate Trump because he is opposed to their demonic one world agenda. Many among the elite are referred to as “globalists” because their eventual goal is to unite the whole world under a single planetary system. These globalists truly believe that they know better than all the rest of us, and they want to impose their way of doing things on every man, woman and child on the entire planet.

    So they get really angry when Donald Trump talks of “building a wall” or establishing a travel ban from certain countries because they eventually want a world without any borders at all.

    And they get really angry when Donald Trump says that he wants to pull the United States out of international trade deals, because the elite were using those international trade deals to slowly integrate all nations into a single one world economy.

    And they really don’t like when Donald Trump criticizes Islam, because Islam is going to be a key component of the one world religion that they plan to establish.

    For quite a while the globalists were on a roll, but recently they have experienced some tremendous setbacks. Britain’s vote to leave the EU and the election of Donald Trump were not supposed to happen, and this has left many globalists searching for answers. In fact, just today I came across a New York Times article entitled “Besieged Globalists Ponder What Went Wrong“…

    Until recently, you didn’t hear people being referred to as “globalist” very often. But in a time of rising nationalism, those who see the upside of globalism have become a distinct — and often embattled — tribe.

     

    Last week, the globalists had a big family reunion in New York. The gathering was focused on the United Nations General Assembly, but a growing array of side conferences and summits and dinners also attracted concerned internationalists of every stripe: humanitarians, leaders of nongovernmental organizations, donors, investors, app peddlers, celebrities.

    As you can see, even the New York Times uses the term “globalists” to describe these elitists.

    At one time you would have been considered a “conspiracy theorist” is you spoke of “globalists”, but at this point the elite are not even trying to put up a facade any longer.

    And of course Donald Trump made opposition to globalism one of the central themes of his campaign, and it really struck a chord all across America. As Dr. Jim Garlow noted in an article that went viral just before the election, Trump’s opposition to globalism was one of the key things that set him apart from Hillary Clinton…

    Trump opposes globalism. Hillary thrives on it. Globalism is far more than “geographical” or “eliminating national borders and boundaries.” It is spiritual and demonic at its core. Few—very few—understand this. This is quite likely one of the main reasons why Trump is hated. Do your homework on this one. Think “principalities and powers.” Serious. Extremely serious.

    The reason why the threat of globalism is so serious is because if a single global system is ever established there will be no escape from it.

    Just think about it – where could you go to escape a government that literally rules the entire world?

    These globalists are completely convinced that if they could just get control of everyone and everything that they could establish some sort of environmentally-friendly socialist utopia where war and poverty are eradicated. But in order to do that, they would need to be in a position to micro-manage the lives of every single person on the planet.

    In their minds it would not be tyranny, but for those of us that love freedom that is precisely what it would be.

    The globalists want a one world government, a one world economy and a one world religion. Those of us that are Christians know that the Bible speaks of a time when this will happen, but even many that are not Christians are deeply concerned about what the globalists are pushing for. Just consider the words of George Mason University Law School Professor Jeremy Rabkin

    George Mason University Law School Professor and author of the 2004 book The Case for Sovereignty: Why The World Should Welcome American Independence Jeremy Rabkin argues that globalism fundamentally stands at odds with democratic forms of government.

     

    In a Tuesday CP interview, Rabkin, a Jew, expressed his distaste for Donald Trump. But on globalism, he said, “beyond that it is not democratic, there’s something about it that is a little creepy, a little uncanny.”

     

    “It’s basically saying ‘We are going to organize the world in a way that establishes an artificial consensus.’ It’s not enough to say it’s undemocratic. It’s threatening; it’s almost demonic. It is a world organized independently of people’s fundamental religious convictions,” Rabkin said.

    I think that when Rabkin chose the word “demonic” that he was right on point.

    The global elite have already had a tremendous amount of success in promoting values, systems and laws that are “anti-Christian” around the globe.

    The globalists control the mainstream media, they control Hollywood, they control our education system and they control most of our politicians.

    They thought that they were almost ready to move into the final stages of their agenda, but then Donald Trump happened.

    For the moment, the momentum toward a one world system has been stopped cold.

    But that doesn’t mean that the globalists will stop trying. Just because Trump won the election does not mean that they are going to roll over and die.

    The elite are going to use all of the resources at their disposal to try to destroy Trump, even if that means creating a tremendous amount of chaos.

    If you study the globalists, you will quickly discover that one of their favorite tactics is to create order out of chaos. So in the months ahead I think that it is quite likely that we may see quite a bit of chaos as the globalists attempt to get their program back on track.

    But if we understand what they are doing, we will be able to see through their games. So let’s keep shining a light on these globalists, because they always prefer to operate in the darkness.

  • Merkel Forced To Deny Plans For European Nuclear Superpower

    In the wake of President Trump's comments that NATO is "obsolete", and European 'leaders' renewed calls for a European army, Angela Merkel has been forced to deny Germany is interested in acquiring nuclear weapons amid calls for it to lead a European "nuclear superpower."

    As we noted previously, calls for an EU Army pre-exist current trends among Europeans and Americans to reject international institutionalism for a more nationalistic, sovereign state oriented model of governance. The Guardian was reporting in 2015 that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was calling for an EU Army to show Russia that the bloc was "serious about defending its values." The shock result of Brexit merely accelerated plans within the EU that were already in progress.

    But with Trump's NATO comments, chatter picked up further in recent weeks of the need for the European Union to invest in its own nuclear deterrent.

    Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the head of Poland’s ruling party, told a German newspaper this week he would “welcome an EU nuclear superpower”.

    A senior MP from Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrat party (CDU) has called for Germany to press for a European nuclear deterrent.

    Spiegel magazine has questioned whether it is time for Germany to acquire its own nuclear weapons.

    And the Financial Times has called for Germany to “think the unthinkable” on the issue.

    As The Guardian reports, the German Government has moved quickly to stymie those rumors…

    “There are no plans for nuclear armament in Europe involving the federal government,” a spokesman for Angela Merkel said.

    Leading voices in Germany have warned that the country acquiring its own nuclear weapons is not the solution.

    “We would open Pandora's box and start an arms race,” General Hans-Lothar Domröse, a former Nato commander, said. “It would make it even more difficult to prevent other countries like Iran from getting the bomb.”

     

    “Obtaining nuclear weapons, either directly or indirectly through the EU, would be a serious violation of international law for Germany,” Wolfgang Ischinger, the head of the influential Munich Security Conference, said.

    Still, all this talk of nuclear arms race is a great reason to buy moar stocks by the looks of the market.

  • Economists: Le Pen Victory Would Lead To "Massive Sovereign Default", Global Financial Chaos

    With two months left until the French election, analysts and political experts find themselves in a quandary: on one hand, political polls show that while National Front’s Marine Le Pen will likely win the first round, she is virtually assured a loss in the runoff round against either Fillon, or more recently Macron, having between 20 and 30% of the vote; on the other, all those same analysts and political experts were dead wrong with their forecasts about both Brexit and Trump, and are desperate to avoid a trifecta as being wrong 3 out of 3 just may be result in losing one’s job.

    Meanwhile, markets are taking Le Pen’s rise in the polls in stride, and French spreads over Germany are moving in lockstep with Le Pen’s rising odds. In fact, as noted earlier in the week, French debt is now the riskiest it has been relative to German in four years.

    Why are markets spooked? 

    As per her recently released manifesto, Le Pen has promised to unilaterally take France out of the Euro within six months, sparking concerns over what might happen then. The answer comes from the National Front itself, which overnight revealed its plans to the FT, suggesting that €1.7 trillion of French public debt would be redenominated into francs if the far-right National Front party gets into power.

    Call it Yanis Varoufakis’ dream scenario.

    As the FT reports, “in comments that are likely to amplify fears about the impact of a FN victory on the global financial system, several senior-ranking party members have told the Financial Times that in  power the far-right would seek to redenominate about 80 per cent of the France’s €2.1tn public debt — the part that was issued under French law — in a new national currency. Confirming that Le Pen’s party had extensively studied the topic, David Rachline, FN’s head of strategy, said in an interview that only about 20% of France’s total public debt “falls under international law [and would stay denominated in euros] . . . but for the rest we will have the right to change the currency”.

    So with the green line in the chart above continuing to rise, a potential currency redenomination and “Frexit” on the table, and with memories of “impossible” events like Brexit and Trump quite fresh in everyone’s memory, the time has come to bring out the big scaremongering guns, starting with the rating agencies, and sure enough they did not disappoint, because as quoted by the FT, an event envisioned by Le Pen would, according to rating agencies, be likely to amount to the largest sovereign default on record, nearly 10 times larger than the €200bn Greek debt restructuring in 2012, threatening chaos to the world financial system on top of the collapse of the single currency.

    Moritz Kraemer, S&P’s head of sovereign ratings, said in a statement that this would be a default. “There is no ambiguity here . . . If an issuer does not adhere to the contractual obligations to its creditors, including payment in the currency stipulated, [we] would declare a default.”

     

    Alastair Wilson, head of sovereign ratings at Moody’s, said they would consider any country leaving the euro to be in default if changing the currency of its debt caused investors to lose out financially relative to the original promise. “The test for us is: do we think investors will be able to get back the value they put in, when they expected to get it back,” he said.

    The FN’s Rachline said French debt would be redenominated on a “one franc to one euro” basis. But he added that reintroducing a national currency that could fall in value against the rump euro would lower France’s total debt burden. “[Having our own currency] will allow us to do a competitive devaluation,” he said.

    Again, this was precisely the scenario contemplated by Vaourfakis, until he realized that the ECB has full control over the Greek banking system and the population’s euro-denominated deposits: there simply was not enough cash for the Greek people if everyone decided to withdraw funds, which is what ultimately killed the Varoufakis revolution.  And to think that fractional reserve banking would have been understood by now.

    It is unclear if Le Pen, or the FN, has planned for this contingency yet: it would be silly not too less than two years after the Greek 2015 fiasco. Nonetheless, the process is distinctly possible. Lawyers contacted by the FT said the currency redenomination for the bonds governed by French law would be theoretically possible because any nation can change its own laws. This means that bondholders would struggle to pursue France in the courts in the same way they pursued Argentina after its default in 2001.

    Matthew Hartley, a debt capital markets partner at Allen & Overy, said: “Because the bonds are governed by French law, they just have to change French law to change the terms of the bonds.

    Meanwhile, just in case rating agencies were not sufficiently convincing, mainstream economists – because their reputation is obviously much higher – also chimed in, arguing that France leaving the euro would cause chaos in Europe. Benoît Cœuré, executive board member at the European Central Bank, this week said that leaving the euro would lead to “impoverishment”, higher interest rates, a heavier debt burden, unemployment and inflation.

    The European Central Banker will likely be even more angry when he learned that Le Pen plans on doing what the Developed World’s central bank would love to do, but are – for the time being – stopped: deploy helicopter money. The FN has said that, following a shift back to the French franc, rules governing the country’s central bank would be changed to allow it to directly finance the French state, for example servicing French welfare payments and government debts.

    Leaving the euro is just one pillar of the FN’s economic strategy, which is focused on making French industry more competitive, taking a page right out of the Trump playbook. However, since France does not share the US’ exorbitant privilege of the global’s reserve currency and world’s strongest army, France – unable to bully its trading partners, hopes that a fall in the value of the new national currency will boost exports.

    The second thrust of the party’s economic policy is to use “intelligent protectionism” to allow them to defend French industries — something that they are currently prevented from doing by EU rules, says the FN.

     

    One senior official said it was a return to the politics of postwar head of state Charles de Gaulle, who kept a tight hand on the French economy. “We are not extreme, we are Gaullists,” said the person, who did not want to be named.

     

    This dirigiste strategy would see them imposing trade barriers on any “unfair competition” from abroad, according to party officials. There would also be a 3 per cent import tax on foreign goods that would be given as tax breaks to the poorest.

    For now, it is unclear whether Le Pen will win or not: there are two more months to go, and even with her rise in the polls against scandal-ridden opponents, one can debate if she has enough support to win. But no matter the outcome, Mikael Sala, the head of Croissance Bleu Marine, a think-tank supporting the FN, summarized it perfectly when he shrugged off concerns that the redenomination of the currency would be considered a default by the rating agencies. “We will be elected by the French people — it is not our job to please [the rating agency] S&P,” he said. “They do not have much credibility after the financial crisis anyway.”

  • The Unintended & Deadly Societal Consequences Of Quantitative Easing

    Authored by Jesse Felder via TheFelderReport.com,

    “As I look back, it now seems that, with all the thought and work and good intentions, which we provided, we achieved absolutely nothing… nothing that I did, and very little that old Ben [Strong of the Federal Reserve] did, internationally produced any good effect – or indeed any effect at all except that we collected money from a lot of poor devils and gave it over to the four winds.”

     

    -Montagu Norman, Governor of the Bank of England 1920-1944

    Since the financial crisis nearly a decade ago, the Federal Reserve has printed trillions of dollars in an effort to create a “wealth effect” in the economy. Their theory goes that quantitative easing would make for rising prices of financial assets which should, in turn, make the wealthy feel more confident and thus spend more. By this process, a trickle-down effect would boost the economy.

    Last year, however, I started to note that, even if this theory were true, a number of developments could possibly derail this “wealth effect” and even put it into reverse. Those developments have continued into 2017. High-end home prices continue to slump.

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    And luxury retailers are suffering at least as much as the major department stores. In fact, sales here have not been so poor since the “Great Recession.”

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    At the same time that these luxury markets are rapidly declining, the stock market is soaring to all time highs. This is probably all the evidence we need to understand that the wealth effect is a myth. Still, the BIS recently quantified the failure of quantitative easing to boost the economy even while noting its efficacy in boosting asset prices.

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    So the Fed has accomplished its goal of making the wealthy wealthier it just hasn’t trickled down to the rest of the economy as they had hoped. The end result is the Fed has only exacerbated the greatest wealth inequality in this country since the Great Depression.

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    The fact is rapidly growing wealth inequality, rather than boosting the confidence of the wealthy, has had the opposite effect, making them increasingly concerned about its societal ramifications.

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    And rightly so. While the rich have become richer in recent years, the average American has only become increasingly squeezed by inflation in things like rent and healthcare while their wages have remained relatively stagnant.

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    This dramatic disparity in economic fortunes between the wealthy and the rest of the country in recent years is surely one of the major drivers behind the rising global trends toward populism and anti-elitism.

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    And I can’t help but think of those famous words quoted above and uttered by the former Governor of the Bank of England near the end of his life. Trillions of dollars printed and ultimately pumped into the asset markets over the better part of the last decade and to accomplish what? To enable corporations to borrow cheap money to buyback stock (give it over to the four winds)? To create the sort of societal division that foments unrest? To allow the wealthy to be able to afford the “survival condos” to ride it out? In years to come, with the benefit of hindsight, will Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen feel any different than their famous forebears?

     

  • Shia LaBeouf Anti-Trump Rally Shut Down After Becoming A "Flashpoint For Violence"

    After standing in front of a live stream camera for weeks shouting “He Will Not Divide Us”, an apparent “art project”, an increasingly mentally unstable Shia LaBeouf has finally been forced to move on with his life after the Museum of the Moving Image in Queens pulled the plug saying the site had become a “flashpoint for violence.”

    Apparently the museum was able to do something that Trump never could, namely “Divide Them.”

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

     

    Going live on January 20, 2017, the day of President Trump’s inauguration, the live stream was supposed to keep running for as long as Trump held the White House but unfortunately, at least for the mental health of the the 30-year-old Hollywood snowflake of Transformers fame, it was shut down after just three weeks.

    As we noted a couple of weeks ago, the first instance of violence occurred on January 25th and resulted in LaBeouf getting hauled away by cops after allegedly assaulting another protester.

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    According to the DailyMail, LaBeouf attacked another protester for shouting something into a live camera feed that he didn’t like. 

    Police say LaBeouf pulled the scarf of an unidentified 25-year-old man this morning, scratching his face in the process.

     

    Police say he also pushed the man, who refused medical attention.

     

    According to local reports, the protester had said something to the camera LaBeouf did not agree with.

    This video allegedly shows part of the assault:

     

    Meanwhile, here is a glorious montage of Shia seemingly going completely insane while repeatedly physically and sexually assaulting a number of other people on his live stream.

     

    Per RT, the museum issued the following statement after pulling the plug on Shia’s pet art project:

    “We are proud to have launched this engaging and thought-provoking digital art installation which was experienced by millions of online viewers worldwide,” the museum said.

     

    “Until public safety concerns overrode the intent of the installation, HEWILLNOTDIVIDE.US generated an important conversation allowing interaction among people from many backgrounds and with different viewpoints,” it continued.

     

    “However, ending our engagement with the installation is the most prudent path forward to restore public safety to the Museum, its visitors, staff and the community.”

    With that, we say so long for now, dear Shia, but we eagerly await your next nervous breakdown. 

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Today’s News 10th February 2017

  • CNN’s Cuomo Equates the ‘N Word’ with Using the Term ‘Fake News’ Against Journalists

    These people are unbelievably tone deaf — insulated in their word of fetishes and drugs and all of the worst elements of mankind. Here is neo-liberal Chris Cuomo from CNN, in an interview with Michael Smerconish on Sirius XM yesterday, telling his listeners that saying ‘fake news’ to a journalist is the same, mind you, as calling a black person the ‘N word’ or derogatory term to an Italian (if alive, his father would smack him in the face with a meatball hero).
     
    Nevermind the fact that the ‘N word’ is rooted in hatred for a group of people for nothing other than the color of their skin. Juxtapose that against the term ‘fake news’, used against corrupt journalists and organizations using their platforms to deceive people, purposely, for political/social justard means, and one could make an indelible argument that Mr. Chris Cuomo is, in fact, a fucking moron.
     

     
    Let’s not forget his infamous foray into the Wikileaks dilemma this summer, telling viewers that it was, in fact, illegal to view the Wikileaks — that they should reserve such a privilege to the professionals in the media.
     

     

     

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Politicians Are Now Making Plans In Case The Public Turns Against Them Violently

    Submitted by James Holbrooks via TheAntiMedia.org,

    As protests continue to break out all around the nation over President Donald Trump’s desire to scrap Obamacare, Politico reported Tuesday that many politicians are beginning to worry about their own personal safety — to the point where some are having private sessions to discuss the matter.

    Citing sources who were in the room, Politico writes:

    “House Republicans during a closed-door meeting Tuesday discussed how to protect themselves and their staffs from protesters storming town halls and offices in opposition to repealing Obamacare.”

     

    Some of the suggestions, the news outlet reports, include “having a physical exit strategy at town halls, or a backdoor at congressional offices to slip out of, in case demonstrations turn violent; having local police monitor town halls; replacing any glass office-door entrances with heavy doors and deadbolts; and setting up intercoms to ensure those entering congressional offices are there for appointments, not to cause chaos.”

    While protests are popping up all over, the Republicans’ private session was no doubt prompted by events that happened over the weekend. While speaking before a raucous crowd in Roseville, California, Representative Tom McClintock had to be escorted from the stage and away from the event by local police officers.

    McClintock, who held town hall meetings during the politically volatile days of both the Tea Party and Occupy movements, told The Hill he’s never seen anything like it:

    “This was something very different. After an hour, the incident commander for the Roseville Police Department advised us the situation was deteriorating and felt it necessary to get me out of the venue. That’s never happened before.”

    This sentiment appeared to be echoed at Tuesday’s closed-door session. Commenting on the meeting, Republican Study Committee Chairman Mark Walker of North Carolina stated:

    “The message was: One, be careful for security purposes. Watch your back. And two, be receptive. Honor the First Amendment, engage, be friendly, be nice. Because it is toxic out there right now. Even some of the guys who have been around here a lot longer than I have, have never seen it to this level.”

    Sources told Politico that the potential for violence is serious enough, in fact, that the House sergeant-at-arms has asked congressional offices to report any threat. That office is also passing out manuals on best practices to keep staffers safe.

    Ironically, the backlash over the possible repeal of Obamacare that Republicans are facing now is similar to the backlash faced by Democrats years back as they were trying to force Obamacare into law.

    “It’s not that you run from protesters,” Representative David Reichert of Washington said during an interview after the meeting, “but if someone presents some sort of physical threat or are espousing a verbal threat that could lead to a physical threat, if you feel that you’re in danger and your staff is in danger, call 911 and leave and go out the back door.”

    In other words…run. Call the cops and run.

  • China Vice Premier: "Those Who Manipulate Economic Data Will Be Punished"

    Ask any economist or trader over drinks, or in any other setting, what they think about Chinese economic data or financial reporting and the answer will be one and the same: it’s all fake.

    And it’s not just skeptical outsiders who share this view: China has made it all too easy for anyone to be convinced, with reports such as this one “China Threatens Its Economists And Analysts To Only Write Bullish Reports, Or Else“, and, of course “Chinese Province Admits It Fabricated Economic Data For Three Years.” Apparently, China is also a master when it comes to deadpan humor and/or self-referential irony – or is merely galactically obtuse – because on Thursday China’s Vice Premier, Zhang Gaoli, warned that economic statistics “must not be fabricated” and that those caught manipulating data should be punished and face consequences in their careers.


    According to Xinhua, the central government requires authentic and reliable economic data to set policy, and China should have a traceable system to punish those found responsible for faking statistics, Zhang said Wednesday during a visit to the National Bureau of Statistics, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

    Zhang also encouraged local authorities and other agencies to better coordinate their work and enact statistical reforms.

    It gets better. 

    Following the recent humiliation when in January it was revealed that Liaoning province had faked its fiscal revenue and other statistics from 2011 to 2014, the government was humiliated, not so much that Chinese data was fabricated data – everyone knew that was the case long ago – but that it was caught. And since the genie was officially out of the bottle, Beijing had no choice but to show a bold facade and signal that China’s leaders are “attaching greater importance to data accuracy”, to demonstrate to the world just how serious it is in cracking down against data manipulators.

    Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported last month that the central government has planned steps that will “improve” the independence of data collection and reduce the influence of local governments. In other words, Beijing is trying to scapegoat provinces and regional governments, for engaging in what it itself does.

    And since the data rigging will not end for the economy which always comes within 0.1% – and usually just above – of the “consensus” GDP number, we wonder if the Chinese government will be as quick to “punish” its own members once more data manipulation cases are exposed following the crackdown on “regionally” fabricated data. We doubt it.

  • Trump's Game Of Chess

    Submitted by NicklethroweR via The Burning Platform blog,

    During the last 18 months or so I’ve heard a lot of talk about chess. This guy or that guy is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers or some mastermind is playing 3 dimensional chess, etc. I find it odd that these statements are made given that only a tiny percentage of Americans know how to play chess with that number sitting around 5% or slightly over 14 million people. This is too bad because if the population, as a whole, had a better understanding of chess then the actions of President Trump would make perfect sense.

    History: The school district where I was employed drastically cut its music programs and decided that chess would be an appropriate alternative to music instruction. I was not entirely opposed to this as there were published research papers extolling the virtues of chess and there appeared to be a direct relationship between playing chess and higher academic achievement. Besides, anyone can play chess while not everyone has the dexterity to be a musician. Wishing to be part of the solution, I agreed to become a coach and took on after school chess programs on three different campuses.

    Our school district was kind enough to foot the bill for some necessary chess coaching and needed chess supplies. Not only that but I had the great fortune of having World Chess Champion Garry Kasparov’s former full time coach as my new teacher as the former Russian coach had relocated to the very city where I lived and had been contracted by the School District to get us up to speed. Private lessons with Kasparov’s coach! Can you imagine it?

    It took my new coach all of about 30 seconds to figure out my level of chess competence which was not very high and I will paraphrase what he said next: “You are not very good and there is not enough time to teach you the correct way. But, I can teach you simple rules that will enable you to defeat anyone that doesn’t study chess full time.” He called his method “active chess” whereas a weak player like myself could use a simple formula to play the most aggressive game possible and win against stronger players. He believed that strategy flowed from tactics and his method allowed for a very fluid game of strategy.

    So, what did he teach me and how does it relate to our president? Is Trump playing chess?

    Chess is a game where the number of possible positions rises at an astronomical rate. By the 2nd move of the game there are already 400 possible positions and after each person moves twice, that number rises to 8902. My coach explained to me that I was not trained enough to even begin to keep track of those things and that my only chance of ever winning was to take the initiative and never give it up. “You must know what your opponent will do next by playing his game for him.” was the advice I received.

    Now, I wont bore you with the particulars but it boiled down to throwing punches each and every turn without exception. In other words, if my opponent must always waste his turn responding to what I am doing then he never gets an opportunity to come at me in the millions of possibilities that reside in the game. Again, if I throw the punch – even one that can be easily blocked, then I only have to worry about one combination and not millions.

    My Russian chess coach next taught me that I should Proudly Announce what exactly I am doing and why I am doing it. He explained to me that bad chess players believe that they can hide their strategy even though all the pieces are right there in plain sight for anyone to see. A good chess player has no fear of this because they will choose positions that are unassailable so why not announce them? As a coach, I made all of my students tell each other why they were making the moves that they made as well as what they were planning next. It entirely removed luck from the game and quickly made them into superior players.

    My Russian coach next stressed Time as something I should focus on to round out my game. He said that I shouldn’t move the same piece twice in a row and that my “wild punches” should focus on getting my pieces on to the board and into play as quickly as possible. So, if I do everything correctly, I have an opponent that will have a disorganized defense, no offense and few pieces even in play and this will work 9 out of 10 times. The only time it doesn’t work for me is when I go against players that have memorized hundreds of games and have memorized how to get out of these traps.

    With all that said, let’s see if President Trump is playing chess.

    First, we can all agree that Trump, if nothing else, throws a lot of punches. We really saw this in the primaries where barely a day could go by without some scandal that would supposedly end his presidential bid. His opponents and the press erroneously thought that responding to each and every “outrage” was the correct thing to do without ever taking the time to think whether or not they had just walked into a trap. They would use their turn to block his Twitter attack but he wouldn’t move that piece again once that was in play but, instead, brought on the next outrage – just like my coach instructed me to do.

    Second, Trump is very vocal in what he is going to do. Just like I had my students announced to each other their plans, Trump has been nothing but transparent about what he intends to do. After all, announcing your plans only works if your position is unassailable. It demoralizes your opponent. You rub their face in it. Another benefit to being vocal is that it encourages your opponent to bring out his favorite piece to deal with said announced plans. This is a big mistake as any good chess player will quickly recognize which piece his opponent favors and then go take them.

    Time has been the one area that our president is having problems. Executive Orders and Twitter Wars have pushed the opposition off balance but he has not been able to use this time to get all of his pieces into play. The Justice Department (his Queen) is still stuck behind a wall of pawns. Furthermore, only 5 of his 15 Cabinet picks have been confirmed as of this writing. Without control over these departments, the president can fight a war of attrition but he really can’t go on the offensive. In chess, I will gladly trade a piece for a piece if it means you have to waste your turn dealing with it. It isn’t a long term strategy if you do not have all of your pieces ready to go.

    In the end it would appear that Trump is playing the kind of game that I was taught to play by my coach.

    His opponents are never given time to mount an attack.

     

    Their queen – the MSM has been removed from the board and their favorite piece – the Celebrities are locked in a war of attrition while Trump gets the rest of his pieces on the board.

     

    Remember, these are all Tactics but Strategy flows from Tactics.

     

    Sooner or later the Left will find itself in some terrible position and the Strategy to drain the swamp will present itself.

    Also, since I did mention Garry Kasparov’s, he had this to say on his Twitter feed just yesterday.

    “It’s the birthday of Ronald Reagan, whose courage and moral clarity helped win the Cold War & free many millions from Communist servitude.”

    Damn right Garry, damn right.

  • Nearly Half Of Early-20s Millennials Still Get A Monthly Housing Allowance From Mom And Dad

    In an age when our pampered, snowflake millennials can’t manage to engage in a simple conversation with someone holding a dissenting opinion, at least not without being “triggered” repeatedly by a barrage of “micro-aggressions”, let along determine their own gender absent a pamphlet from their enabling college of choice, it should come as no surprise that nearly half of young adults between the ages of 22-24 receive monthly housing allowances from their parents. 

    According to a study by Patrick Wightman of the University of Michigan, roughly 40% of millennials between the ages of 22-24 receive an average of $3,000 from their parents every year.  Per the New York Times:

    According to surveys that track young people through their first decade of adulthood, about 40 percent of 22-, 23- and 24-year-olds receive some financial assistance from their parents for living expenses. Among those who get help, the average amount is about $3,000 a year.

     

    It’s a stark reminder that social and economic mobility continues past grade school, high school and even college. Economic advantages continue well into the opening chapters of adulthood, a time when young people are making big personal investments that typically lead to higher incomes but can be hard to pay for.

    Unsurprisingly, the frequency and amount of financial assistance varies greatly depending on each young millennial’s chosen field of study.  To our complete shock, “Art and Design” students are the most likely to require help from mommy and daddy and get $3,600, on average, each year. 

    The amount of help that parents provide varies by career and geography. Among young people who aspire to have a career in art and design, 53 percent get rent money from their parents. Young people who live in urban centers are more likely to have their parents help pay the rent.

     

    The choice of career path matters. Those in the art and design fields get the most help, an average of $3,600 a year. People who work in farming, construction, retail and personal services get the least.

     

    Some jobs in science, technology, engineering, management and law have clearer and more substantial payoffs after years of internships and postgraduate training. But pay in art, design and education is low in the early years, and for some people, it remains low.

     

    Someone who wants to go into graphic design or marketing requires a fair amount of time to get up to the point where you’re independent,” Mr. Wightman said. “Someone contemplating that kind of career isn’t going to take that first step unless they know they’re going to have that support to take an unpaid internship. If you don’t have other sources of support, that’s not even an option.”

    Millennials

     

    Of course, the amount of annual parental support required by millennials is also highly dependent upon where they’re living.  We can’t honestly expect young Johnny or Susie to become wildly successful actors without living in Manhattan or Hollywood, now can we?

    Millennial

     

    But don’t worry, young millennials, we’re sure everything will work out in due course…

    Millennial

  • The Game (Theory) Of Trump – "Not Every Tweet Is A Constitutional Crisis"

    Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners' Epsilon Theory blog,

    Death inspires me
    Like a dog inspires a rabbit.
    ? Twenty One Pilots, “Heavydirtysoul” (2017)

     

    Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
    ? Sigmund Freud, who probably never actually said this (but should have)

    Over the past few weeks, I’ve had a fight with my wife, spoiling an otherwise wonderful night out, and email spats with two of my best and oldest friends. It was about Trump, of course. Not directly, but always on some silly tangential issue like “Should Sally Yates have resigned instead of countermanded an executive order on the basis of her personal beliefs?” or, better yet, “Is Lady Gaga authentic?” In each case, I didn’t recognize that we weren’t really talking about what I thought we were talking about, and by the time I did recognize the real issues, I was already too far down the path of combative Ben (think Bruce Banner but without the green skin) to care. Not my finest moments.

    I suspect a lot of Epsilon Theory readers have had similar individual experiences of late. Certainly it seems that our collective experience as a nation and political society is breaking down this way.

    What I want to write about today is not the specifics of this policy or that policy. It’s not to make an argument of any sort. It’s to write about argumentation itself, and the way in which the GAME of our politics and our society has shifted. Yeah, I know this is all very meta and has zero direct impact on your investing or portfolio decisions. But it’s actually the only thing that I think really matters for our social lives, including our lives as citizens and as investors, because it’s only by recognizing the game that we’re playing that we can survive it. Together. Maybe.

    The most widely read Epsilon Theory note ever was “Virtue Signaling: Or Why Clinton is in Trouble”, published last September, where I wrote about why I thought Hillary could lose the election. The argument was that this was a turn-out election for a handful of swing states, and Democrats were all too keen to proclaim their political virtue by being anti-Trump in easy places like the Huffington Post or California metro advertising markets, where lots of like-minded Democrats would see them, rather than to barnstorm FOR Clinton in places where unlike-minded Democrats would see them, like Pennsylvania or Michigan or Wisconsin. Hubris, thy name is Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the rest of the DNC cartel.

    But here’s what I wrote about Trump in that note:

    Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.

    Blowing up our international trade and security games with Europe, Japan, and China for the sheer hell of it, turning them into full-blown Competition Games … that’s really stupid. But we have a nasty recession and maybe a nasty war. Maybe it would have happened anyway. We get over it. Blowing up our American political game with citizens, institutions, and identities for the sheer hell of it, turning it into a full-blown Competition Game … that’s a historic tragedy. We don’t get over that.

    Geez. Like anyone else with a public persona, I loooove being right. But I didn’t expect to be this right, this quickly. The election of Trump IS breaking us, and not because of the specifics of his policies or whether they’re right or wrong or anything like that. It’s breaking us because of the nature of repeated-play competitive games and the shifting meaning of cooperation.

    That first bit — the nature of repeated-play competitive games — is a mouthful. All it really means, though, is that our real-life social interactions, whether in politics or markets or everyday life with our family and friends, are never a single, solitary game. We play the same core game over and over and over, each single interaction setting the stage for the next, and what we really should be concerned about is the overall pattern of the entire set of interactions. That’s real life, as opposed to some 2×2 matrix of Cooperate/Defect like you’d see in a game theory textbook.

    And famously, repeated plays can help improve competitive games that otherwise end up in a sad equilibrium, like the Prisoner’s Dilemma. A political scientist named Robert Axelrod (not to be confused with David Axelrod of Obama campaign and CNN fame … this is a different guy) wrote a really influential book back in 1984 called The Evolution of Cooperation, where he showed that a cooperative but non-patsy player (i.e., willing to cooperate first and reluctantly forgive an opponent’s occasional defection) would, over time, find enough similarly “nice” players to create an ecosystem of cooperators and dominate, over time, those not-so-nice players who were looking to WIN BIGLY in every single interaction. Axelrod’s book was one of the most popular political science books of the past 40 years, and it spawned a cottage industry of academics looking to expand this insight in theory and practice. It’s a powerful idea because it’s a hopeful idea for nice people. If only us nice people can signal each other and band together, why golly, this proves that there’s nothing we can’t overcome together in this mean old world.

    Unfortunately, the evolution of cooperation through adopting “nice” strategies is not a particularly robust finding. Or rather, it’s robust, but only in a particular subset of competitive games and only if the players agree on the meaning of cooperation. For example, if you’re playing a game of Chicken over and over again rather than a game of Prisoner’s Dilemma over and over again, being nice and forgiving doesn’t work very well. At all. Google “Sudetenland 1938” if you don’t believe me. In fact, the entire concept of repeated-play doesn’t fit neatly with the competitive game of Chicken, which is a problem because it’s the dominant competitive game form in the modern world, both internationally and domestically. It wasn’t always this way, particularly in our domestic politics. But it sure is now.

    The fundamental reason that a repeated-play cooperative strategy doesn’t work in a game of Chicken is that the meaning of cooperation is different in this class of games. You see it in the title of the game itself. If you cooperate in a game of Chicken — i.e., you’re driving your tractor straight on at Kevin Bacon’s pick-up truck and you veer off from the looming crash, or you and James Dean are racing towards a cliff and you put on your brakes first — you are the LOSER. You are the COWARD. That becomes your identity and your reputation, which means that others will now treat you like a loser and a coward in the games that they play with you in the future. Compare that to the meaning of cooperation in a game of Prisoner’s Dilemma, where cooperation — i.e., you refuse to rat out your partner and cut a deal for yourself at his expense — means that you are STRONG and LOYAL. The words and the examples used to illustrate bloodless, mathematical game theoretic matrices are not accidental! If we believe that our identity is at risk in a repeated-play competitive game, we behave very differently than if it’s not. More to the point, we should behave differently if our identity is at stake. It’s the rational thing to do. If Trump inspires you like a dog inspires a rabbit, then you should never cooperate if it’s a game of Chicken with his tribe and you should always cooperate if it’s a Prisoner’s Dilemma game with your tribe. Maybe you’ll crash the car in this particular game of Chicken and maybe your partner will rat you out in this particular game of Prisoner’s Dilemma. But your identity and reputation will be strengthened, not damaged, for the next game you play with the other tribe or within your own tribe. And there’s always another game.

    Okay, Ben, fair enough. We don’t want to be cowards but we still want to think of ourselves as nice. For the big identity-is-at-stake games, we should play nice strategies within our own mob and play mean strategies with the other guys. Got it. But how do we avoid crashing the car in our everyday lives? How do we avoid talking past or yelling at our friends, family, and fellow citizens with whom we share so much common ground on the really big ideas of what it means to be Americans or, more fundamentally still, a good human being?

    Well … first off I’m going to suggest that we should all prepare for impact. The evolution of competition and the success of “mean” strategies in games like Chicken is at least as robust as the evolution of cooperation and the success of “nice” strategies in games like Prisoner’s Dilemma. Once you introduce, say, mustard gas into the trench warfare game, it doesn’t just un-introduce itself on its own. These bells are really hard to un-ring, and it typically takes a lot of car crashes on both sides before you get a peace treaty and a chance to rebuild a cooperative game structure. That’s at least four mixed metaphors, but you get what I mean. And unfortunately, all of these metaphors apply just as aptly to a social structure of family and friends as to a social structure of a political party or an entire nation. The evolution of competition is a powerfully contagious virus, and it hops easily from a big tribe like a nation to a small tribe like a family.

    But I do have two suggestions to limit the damage that the evolution of competition inevitably spews in its wake.

    First, whatever competitive social interaction we’re having, at whatever level we’re having it, the most important thing in that interaction is to figure out the meaning of cooperation for yourself and whoever you’re dealing with. Otherwise you’re going to find yourself playing a different game from the other person, and that never ends well. This is a tough piece of advice to follow (myself included!) because we assume that whatever our “identity weighting” might be for a given issue, the person or group we’re interacting with attaches that same meaning. So, for example, if you voted for Clinton as an affirmation of a personal identity that rejects the racism and sexism you see in Trump, your natural assumption is going to be that anyone who voted for Trump similarly did so as an affirmation of a personal identity, but one that accepts racism and sexism. Or vice versa. Or whatever. We’ve all seen a dozen variations of this theme over the past eight weeks, and we’ve all (yes, every single one of us) engaged in it, as well. This sort of projection is an innate behavioral bias of the human animal. I get it. But it is also entirely wrong-headed when it comes to complex and over-determined social behaviors like voting. Or buying a stock. Believe it or not (and many people reading this note won’t), behaviors like voting or purchasing or speaking or tweeting are not necessarily markers of personal identity. Maybe they are, and when they are they MUST be respected if you care about having a peaceful social interaction. But maybe they aren’t. And that must be respected, too.

    Second, it’s crucial to recognize that not all political arguments or competitive games are really existential in nature or fraught with questions of identity. Not every tweet is a constitutional crisis. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. This is also a tough piece of advice to follow (also myself included!) because the ringleaders of the various Team Elite cabals, whether it’s the Trump Plutocrats or the Davos Globalists or the Central Bank Mandarins or the NeoCon Spymasters or whoever, are working diligently day in and day out to convince you that it is. That every action or statement by the other ringleaders is an OUTRAGE. That this is how Hitler got started or how liberty is lost.

    Of course, the really scary thing is that this IS how Hitler got started and it IS how liberty is lost, it’s just not clear to me which of our contending factions or geographies is supplying the 21st century version. History rhymes roughly; it doesn’t repeat neatly.

    Meanwhile the barrage of fiat news and alternative facts continues from all sides unabated. We are caught in the crossfire of the “mean” strategies implemented by the various factions as they quite rationally engage in a massive repeated-play game of Chicken, where winning means mobilizing the hearts and minds of the cannon fodder. And by cannon fodder I mean us.

    It’s the oldest saying in poker, and one I can’t repeat often enough. If you’ve been playing poker for 30 minutes and you don’t know who the sucker is … it’s you. We are — all of us, without exception — being played. That doesn’t mean we stop playing the game, whether it’s the game of markets or the game of citizenship. It means, though, that we resolve not to be the sucker. That we turn a clear eye to the stories that others tell us and the stories that we tell ourselves. That we demand to be treated as the rightful, autonomous owners of our identities, and we extend that right to others.

    Know thyself.

    Treat others as you would have them treat you.  

    Pretty good advice 2,000 years ago in some pretty hard times. Pretty good advice today.

  • US, China Military Aircraft Have "Unsafe, Close Encounter" Over Contested Islands

    After years of 'close encounters' of the Russian-kind, it appears the US military has found a new nation to fly close to.

    Nine months after China demanded US "immediately cease" spying near its borders

    "It must be pointed out that U.S. military planes frequently carry out reconnaissance in Chinese coastal waters, seriously endangering Chinese maritime security," China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei Hong told reporters, adding that  "we demand that the United States immediately cease this type of close reconnaissance activity to avoid having this sort of incident happening again."

    CNN reports that two US defense officials confirmed that there was an "unsafe" close encounter between a US Navy P-3 Orion aircraft and a Chinese surveillance aircraft Wednesday in the general vicinity of the contested Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

    One official said the Chinese plane was a People's Liberation Army Air Force KJ-200.

    CNN reports the two planes flew within 1,000 feet of each other in the general vicinity of the contested Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

    A second official said that the American P-3 had to alter course to ensure that there wasn't an aerial collision.

    A spokesperson for US Pacific Command, which oversees US troops in the region confirmed, the incident, calling it "unsafe" in a statement provided to CNN.

    "The U.S. Navy P-3C was on a routine mission operating in accordance with international law," Maj. Rob Shuford said.

     

    "The Department of Defense and US Pacific Command are always concerned about unsafe interactions with Chinese military forces," he added.

     

    "We will address the issue in appropriate diplomatic and military channels."

    While the Navy considers the encounter to be "unsafe," it does not assess that any malign intent was behind the incident, though the event was considered serious enough to be raised up the chain of command.

    The official called encounters between US and Chinese aircraft like the one that took place Wednesday "extremely rare," noting that there were zero such incidents in 2015 and two in 2016. It was the first such instance of 2017.

    We look forward to China's official response tomorrow, especially considering President Trump's positive outreach earlier today.

  • Record Number Of Americans Renounce U.S. Citizenship In 2016; 2,200% Surge During Obama Reign

    Obama warned everyone back in 2009 that “elections have consequences.”  Now, eight years later, we learn that apparently the “consequences” of running around the country for nearly a decade threatening to raise taxes, “spread the wealth around” and pursue any number of other socialist policies are a record number of people renouncing their U.S. citizenship.

    Per a post from the International Tax Blog, the U.S. Treasury recently published the names of individuals who renounced their U.S. citizenship or terminated their long-term U.S. residency (“expatriated”) during the fourth quarter of 2016 and it shattered all previous records.

    The number of published expatriates for 4Q 2016 was 2,365, bringing the total number for 2016 to 5,411, setting a new all-time quarterly and annual record.  By comparison, the number of expatriates for 2016 reflects a 26% increase over 2015 and a 58% increase over 2014 (3,415).

    Expats

     

    Taking a more granular look at the past 20 years illustrates the staggering surge in the number of published expatriates that “coincidentally” corresponds with Obama’s election in 2008.  In fact, the 2016 list is over 22x larger than 2008, the year just before Obama moved into the White House. 

    Expats

     

    As the New York Times notes, perhaps the most notable citizenship renouncement came from British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson who gained fame as one of the most vocal supporters of the Brexit referendum and an early critic of Trump describing him as “out of his mind” and of “a quite stupefying ignorance.”

    Boris Johnson, Britain’s colorful and blustery foreign secretary, who is perhaps best known for his leading role in campaigning for his country’s departure from the European Union, has given up his American citizenship, a United States Treasury Department list showed Wednesday.

     

    Born in New York, Mr. Johnson, 52, held dual citizenship until last year. He had long complained about having to pay taxes in the United States even though he was 5 when he last lived there. Unlike most countries, the United States taxes nationals who live abroad on their worldwide income.

     

    Mr. Johnson, a Conservative, has not been known for his diplomatic skills. His relations with Donald J. Trump took a blow in December 2015, when he accused Mr. Trump, then a presidential candidate, of being “out of his mind” and of “a quite stupefying ignorance” that made him unfit for the presidency.

    Guess we can add this to the “Obama legacy”…

    Obama

  • NGO Fleet Bussing Migrants Into The EU Has Ties To George Soros, Hillary Clinton Donors

    Via Disobedient Media

    In November 2016, a number of NGO’s were revealed by independent European news source GEFIRA to be smuggling migrants from the northern coast of Africa across the Mediterranean into the EU using a ramshackle fleet of ships. Research by Disobedient Media shows that a number of the organizations sponsoring ships in the armada are funded in part by Hillary Clinton donors and organizations run by billionaire George Soros. The actions taken by sponsors of ships in the fleet may be illegal under EU law and possibly run the risk of aiding ISIS operatives hiding among the migrant population.

    I. A Fleet Of NGO Operated Ships In The Mediterranean Operate Around The Clock Delivering Migrants From North Africa To Italy

    On November 15, 2016 GEFIRA published evidence they had gathered that various NGOs were utilizing a fleet of more than a dozen boats in the Mediterranean to illegally transport migrants from the North African coast to Italy. GEFIRA used AIS Marine Traffic (Ship-tracking software) signals, Twitter and the live reports of a Dutch journalist on board of the ship Golfo Azzurro to document alleged collaboration between NGOs, the Italian Coast Guard and smugglers coordinate their actions. The ships were caught on radar moving between the Italian and Libyan coast moving migrants into the EU.

    Source: GEFIRA

    The Italian coast guard directed ships in the fleet to Libyan territorial waters, where they would engage in “rescue operations” and take migrants onboard before delivering them to the Sicilian coast of Italy. This would allow migrants to bypass Malta, which is used as a major processing center for immigrants and refugees entering the EU. GEFIRA speculated that the Dutch, Maltese and German based NGOs’ facilitation of human smuggling made them, in effect, operations of international criminal organizations.

    Source: GEFIRA

    The NGOs tied to boats involved in the operation were Migrant Offshore Aid Station (MOAS), Jugend Rettet, Stichting Bootvluchting, Médecins Sans Frontières, Save the Children, Proactiva Open Arms, Sea-Watch.org, Sea-Eye and Life Boat.

    II. Several Organizations Operating Ships In The Fleet Have Ties To George Soros, Hillary Clinton Donors

    Information uncovered in an investigation by Disobedient Media has revealed that several of the NGO groups involved with the migrant fleet have received funds from George Soros aligned organizations or financial backers of Hillary Clinton.

    The Migrant Offshore Aid Station (MOAS) was founded in 2014 by entrepreneurs Christopher and Regina Catrambone. MOAS operates the ships the Topaz Responder and the Phoenix in the migrant fleet. Mr. Catrambone was listed as a major donor to Hillary Clinton, giving over $416,000 to her presidential campaign bid in 2016. Another major supporter of MOAS is avaaz.org, who donated €500,000 to MOAS’ “search and rescue operations.” Avaaz.org was founded by Moveon.org, an American organization owned by George Soros. Avaaz.org acts as the European branch for Moveon.org.

    NGO group Save the Children operates the Astral in the migrant fleet. Save the Children is supported in part by George Soros’ Open Society Foundation.

    Médicins Sans Frontiéres (MSF) also operates several ships in the migrant fleet – the Dignity 1, the Bourbon Argos and the  Aquarius. MSF has also received funding from the Open Society Foundation.

    Other organizations running ships in the fleet, such as Sea Eye, have denied to news sources that they were delivering migrants to Italy, despite being caught by GEFIRA doing exactly that.

    No matter what good intentions might be behind the decisions of these various NGO groups to operate ships in this fleet, they are likely illegal and are in effect subverting European law. The financial involvement of George Soros and other big name supporters raises questions about the true intentions of various sponsors operating ships within the fleet.

    Many of the migrants seeking entry to the EU are not refugees and are attempting to enter for purely economic reasons. Even more concerning are recent reports that terror group ISIS has begun to dominate the trafficking networks in North Africa and is actively recruiting members from among the migrant population with promises of small amounts of cash and guaranteed safe passage into the EU. The involvement of ISIS in human trafficking and recruitment indicates that there is a very real possibility that the NGO groups operating ships within this fleet may be (intentionally or not) aiding and abetting terror by transporting undercover operatives into the EU.

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Today’s News 9th February 2017

  • Globalists Want To Destroy Conservative Principles – But They Need Our Help

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    For months now, long before the 2016 election, I have been warning about a specific social dynamic which is likely to lead to a form of civil war within the U.S.; namely, the reality that people on the left side of the political spectrum would become despondent at the inevitable loss of their candidate, Hillary Clinton, and that they would react by becoming far more militant. In my article 'Order Out Of Chaos: The Defeat Of The Left Comes With A Cost', published November post-election, I stated:

    “When I mentioned in my last article the crippling of social justice, I did not mention that this could have some negative reverberations. With Trump and conservatives taking near-total power after the Left had assumed they would never lose again, their reaction has been to transform. They are stepping away from the normal activities and mindset of cultural Marxism and evolving into full blown communists. Instead of admitting that their ideology is a failure in every respect, they are doubling down.

     

    When this evolution is complete, the Left WILL resort to direct violent action on a larger scale, and they will do so with a clear conscience because, in their minds, they are fighting fascism.”

    I believed at that time that the social-justice cult would lose mainstream influence but that the existing minority would resort to even more insidious tactics and greater violence to get what they want; and, the so-called "moderate left" would cheer them on.  As it turns out, I have been proven right so far.

    Not that extreme Leftists have been averse to violence over the past year, but I think it is safe to say that the volume on the cultural Marxist machine has been turned up a notch. The riot at UC Berkeley over a scheduled speech by gay, conservative speaker Milo Yiannopoulos is a perfect example:

    Then, there was the raid by SJWs at NYU on a speech by conservative journalist and comedian Gavin McInnes, in which they shouted down all discussion with mindless chants until the event had to be canceled. This was, of course, after they had already physically attacked people outside the building, including McInnes:

    The social justice mantra is changing. At first, it was predominately about forming mobs to “shame” target political opponents into silence. Now, it is about forming mobs to do what they call “punching Nazis.” Leftists are now often seen regurgitating the claim — “This is only the beginning…”

    I agree, this IS only the beginning. The Left is driven not only by the ideology of cultural Marxism, but also a very specific activist strategy outlined in Saul Alinsky’s 'Rules For Radicals'. The very core of Alinsky’s method revolves around one important rule in particular: the ends justify the means.

    This is the key ingredient of moral relativism, and when a movement is motivated by moral relativism, there is no limit to the depths they will sink to get their way. Activists adopting the “ends justify the means” mentality are not interested in being “right,” or wise, or rational or logical or factual; they ONLY care about “winning.” This is their goal, and they will do anything to achieve it.

    It is important to note, however, that all of these protests and the increase in violence is not taking place in a vacuum. As many liberty analysts have noted, Trump has hardly had time to do anything yet that would warrant national protests. Is Trump really the only catalyst? Not quite. The mainstream media and globalists like George Soros have been very effective in agitating or outright paying protesters and provocateurs to generate zombie mobs of gullible Leftists to use as a billy club for harassing conservatives.

    That said, I want liberty activists and analysts to ponder on this for a moment — to what end is this being done? Why is Soros so interested in fomenting leftist rage? Is it designed to overthrow Trump? To initiate mob action and frighten conservatives into silence? Or do the globalists have a greater and more important goal in mind?

    I have been writing often on the idea of 4th Generation Warfare the past month, and I think my readers are now well versed in the concept of the “three-steps-ahead” style of tactics, as well as the concept of manipulating an opponent to destroy himself, rather than fighting him directly. These are not new methods, the globalists have merely taken them to the next level.

    But how do 4th Gen warfare tactics apply to the current Right vs. Left scenario in the U.S.? Well, everything is not as obvious as it seems.

    As I outlined in-depth in my article Clinton Versus Trump And The Co-Option Of The Liberty Movement, globalists and the leftist media have been, in a strange way, quietly cheering for Trump, but only as a tool for absorbing the liberty movement (what they still call the “Tea Party”). This glee is made rather evident in an article published by Bloomberg in August titled The Tea Party Meets Its Maker.

    There is a point I have been trying to make for most of the year that I think has been consistently missed by many in the liberty movement. That point being that the greatest danger to conservatives is NOT militant Leftists, but how we RESPOND to militant Leftists. That is to say, I believe the globalists are using the Left as a cattle prod to enrage conservatives and lure us into abandoning our principles in the name of defeating Marxists.

    Consider this; the argument among most liberty analysts has been that the numerous anti-Constitutional programs put in place by the Obama administration in the past eights years would eventually be used by the political Left and the globalists as weapons to subdue and destroy conservatives and patriot groups. While Obama certainly tested the waters of tyranny over and over again, up to and including using executive orders to assassinate American citizens without trial, it is clear that those extensive powers afforded to the White House are no longer in the hands of the left; they are in the hands of Trump.

    Obama even signed the “Countering Disinformation And Propaganda Act” into law AFTER Trump had already won the White House. Trump has now inherited this power as well, which seems to give government the authority to harass or even silence news sources they deem “fake news.” While many liberty activists cried foul and warned of a “coup” designed to shut down alternative news sites and thwart Trump’s inauguration, I warned that there was a much more dangerous scenario in play.

    What will conservatives do in the face of the leftist mob funded by globalists and growing ever more vicious? Well, what do the globalists expect us to do? I think they expect us to look at all the government powers we once admonished as unConstitutional and say “hey, maybe these laws and executive orders are not so bad after all…”

    I think the globalists are handing us the incredible temptation of far reaching bureaucratic power, and they expect us to abuse that power, as almost anyone would.

    As an alternative analyst I am privy to trends in the liberty movement and in conservative circles that might not be immediately obvious to casual readers. Already, I am witnessing calls among conservatives to abuse government power to defeat the Left. I have seen comments such as:

    “Trump should use the NDAA to imprison these leftists indefinitely…”

     

    “The only solution is to throw the leftists into FEMA camps…”

     

    “Trump needs to shut down the leftist media…”

     

    “Sometimes it is okay to bend the rules of the constitution if you have the right president…”

    And comments like this are popping up everywhere in liberty media boards. Now, I recognize that some of this talk is being posted by paid disinformation agents and provocateurs, but, I have heard regular conservatives and patriots, people who are long time proponents of the Constitution, echo similar sentiments.

    I often use the analogy of the “One Ring” from The Lord Of The Rings to describe big government power. I really can’t find a better fictional symbol. Anyone who comes into possession of the “one ring” is eventually corrupted by it. Many good people believe that its darker energy can be contained and directed for good purposes, but they, too, are ultimately undone by it. The only answer, the only solution, is to abandon the ring, or to destroy it.

    Overt government power is very much the same; it corrupts any person or group that comes in contact with it. Every group thinks that if only THEY were in possession of government that they would do things differently. This is a delusion. No person or group is benevolent enough to handle this responsibility, and this includes conservatives. Many groups would commit egregious and heinous crimes to take government for themselves, or keep it for themselves, all the while so many Saurons (globalists) laugh and smack their lips as the masses battle over numerous rings of power.

    As I have noted time and time again for the past several months, Trump is the perfect tool for scapegoating conservative movements for the economic crisis the elites have already engineered. But, this is only one part of the agenda. In the midst of chaos generated by financial calamity, the morals of an entire society can become "malleable".  The most important target of the globalists is not only conservatives, but the conservative philosophy. They don’t just want to annihilate conservatives today, they want to annihilate conservatives for all time.

    The globalists cannot accomplish this task without our help. They NEED us to adopt an attitude of moral relativism, much like the Left. They need us to turn into totalitarians. They need us to become the monster we claim we want to defeat. Only then can conservative principles be demonized for all time. Only then will history look back on us as a stain on the human record.

    This is the globalist’s long game.

    While Leftists are being encouraged to mutate into wild frothing packs of rabid dogs, conservatives will be encouraged either through temptation or manipulation to respond in kind. The Left’s propaganda train asserts that we are “fascists.” Obviously, we are the furthest thing from this. But, with enough violence and aggressive censorship on their part, we might end up saying “Okay, you want to see fascism, we’ll show you fascism!”

    The social justice cult has no idea what they are being led into. The globalists are going to throw them to the wolves, and WE are the wolves.

    It is important to note that the Left is also not the only instigator for conservatives to turn totalitarian. Islamic terrorism is always a perfect rationale for increased government intrusion in the name of safety. The worst part is, the threats from the Left and the threats from Islamic extremism are in most cases quite legitimate, and they seem to be working hand-in-hand more each day.

    The progressive interference with steps towards more rational immigration policies and their steady defense of Sharia Law leads many conservatives to see them as one in the same enemy.  No foreigner is entitled to citizenship in the U.S., but leftists live in a fantasy world of open borders.  The left's refusal to entertain reasonable and selective immigration will eventually push conservatives towards more drastic measures, which is the ultimate point.

    Very few Americans like Communists, and very few Americans like Muslim zealotry; the justification for totalitarian measures to disrupt such threats is relatively easy for many people.

    This is why I am going to make my next prediction of a major geopolitical event to close out this article — I believe there will be a large scale terrorist attack within the next three months, beyond the mob actions of the Left already in progress.

    It will either be similar in scope to 9/11, or, it will be a succession of many smaller attacks occurring over the course of a few days to a couple of weeks. I believe that the current dispute over border controls and immigration denial will come immediately into play. Trump will blame Leftists for obstructing his efforts for secure immigration. Leftists and the media will blame Trump for “radicalizing” Muslims with his immigration policies, or perhaps even accuse him of staging the attacks himself. Trump will begin taking extraordinary measures beyond the Constitution to ensure immigration denial and the thwarting of the Left, and conservatives will applaud him for it.

    Again, conservatives are being led by globalists into the temptations of power. The only way for us to fight back is to maintain our principles and refuse to support ANY government measure that is unConstitutional, even if it is to be used against our enemies. The only way that the heritage of liberty can be defeated is if the proponents and champions of liberty forsake it. We beat the globalists in the long run by standing by our ideals and fighting back within the bounds of the principles we hold dear. Dominance through government is never the answer.

  • Decade-High $100 Billion Of Corporate Loans Refinanced In January As Companies Prepare For Higher Rates

    Anyone who slipped into a coma 10 years ago and suddenly woke up today, may come to the erroneous conclusion that not much had happened in U.S. debt and equity markets over the past decade.  Like in 2007, equity markets seem to surge to all new highs with each passing day, corporate credit spreads have tightened to 10-year lows and leveraged loan refinancings are soaring as all the “money on the sidelines” just can’t seem to find a home fast enough. 

    As the Wall Street Journal noted today, the fear of rising interest rates, which have so far largely been offset by tightening spreads for corporate levered loan borrowers, has sparked a massive wave of corporate loan refinancings, including $100 billion worth of volume in January 2017 alone.  Moreover, per data from LevFin Insights, $222 billion, or nearly 25% of the entire leveraged loan market, has been refinanced since October.

    Rising interest-rate expectations are fueling the biggest corporate-refinancing boom in years.

     

    U.S. companies refinanced $100 billion of loans in January, the largest monthly total in at least a decade, according to data from S&P Global Inc. More than 110 low-rated companies, including software giant Dell Technologies Inc. and car-repair chain Service King Collision Repair Centers Inc., have refinanced loans since October, according to data from LevFin Insights LLC.

     

    Borrowers in recent months have saved more than $1 billion in annual interest costs by renegotiating terms with their lenders, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of the data.

     

    Total repricings since the start of October amount to $222 billion, representing 24% of all outstanding leveraged loans, according to LevFin Insights. Firms negotiated an average interest reduction of 0.59 percentage point.

    Refinancings

     

    Of course, rising interest rates, which are feared to continue pushing higher, are sparking this latest refinancing bubble…

    3M LiBOR

     

    …as corporate borrowers have sought to offset increases in LIBOR rates with tighter spreads.

    Corp Spreads

     

    Of course, none of this madness would be possible without all that “money on the sidelines” just waiting for the next new issue from Goldman that will grant them a 5% allocation at a spread 75 bps lower than the initial pricing talk.

    The wave is being propelled by outsize investor demand for bank loans, floating-rate debt investments that are prized because they tend to perform well in rising-rate environments. The red-hot loan market has enabled many corporations to demand that lenders cut rates or face losing the business to a rival, a sign of how easy financing is enabling large firms to get advantageous terms in debt markets.

     

    Persuading lenders to cut the rate on Service King’s $609 million loan by 0.75 percentage point took just a few days. The new loan will save the company about $4.5 million in annual interest expense that can be used for acquisitions instead, said Chief Financial Officer Michelle Frymire.

     

    “There’s a lot of pent-up investor demand,” Ms. Frymire said. The Richardson, Texas, company has 309 auto repair shops in 23 states and is owned by private-equity firm Blackstone Group LP.

    But, at the end of the day, if you’re a pension or mutual fund manager you just have to keep buying because, you know, “animal spirits”…just ask Craig Russ of Eaton Vance.

    Investors have poured $17 billion into loan mutual funds since Sept. 1, with $7.6 billion coming in December alone, according to data from Lipper Inc. It is the biggest such inflow since 2013, during the “Taper Tantrum” when the Fed’s plan to reduce stimulus fueled a surge into loan funds.

     

    With few new loans to buy, fund managers who received new money from investors are scrambling to buy existing loans, pushing prices higher and spreads down. Companies and their investment bankers saw the opportunity to refinance and pounced.

     

    “Animal spirits seem to have taken over investor appetite and the markets,” said Craig Russ, co-manager of Eaton Vance Corp.’s $7.5 billion leveraged-loan mutual fund.

     

    While large banks still underwrite large corporate loans, they often sell the bulk of the debt to a mix of mutual funds, pensions, insurers, hedge funds and other institutional investors.

    In conclusion:

    EA

  • Most Government Workers Could Be Replaced By Robots, New Study Finds

    Submitted by Emily Zanotti via HeatSt.com,

    A study by a British think tank, Reform, says that 90% of British civil service workers have jobs so pointless, they could easily be replaced by robots, saving the government around $8 billion per year.

    The study, published this week, says that robots are “more efficient” at collecting data, processing paperwork, and doing the routine tasks that now fall to low-level government employees. Even nurses and doctors, who are government employees in the UK, could be relieved of some duties by mechanical assistants.

    There are “few complex roles” in civil service, it seems, that require a human being to handle.

    “Twenty percent of public-sector workers hold strategic, ‘cognitive’ roles,” Reform’s press release on the study says. “They will use data analytics to identify patterns—improving decision-making and allocating workers most efficiently.

     

    “The NHS, for example, can focus on the highest risk patients, reducing unnecessary hospital admissions. UK police and other emergency services are already using data to predict areas of greatest risk from burglary and fire.”

    The problem, Reform says, is that public sector employee unions have bloated the civil service ranks, forcing government agencies to keep on older employees, and mandating hiring quotas for new ones. The organizational chart looks like a circuit board—and there’s no incentive to streamline anything.

    Unfortunately for civil service workers, it seems the study is just the latest in a series of research  that won’t save their jobs. Oxford University and financial services provider Deloitte, both of whom comissioned their own studies concur with Reform‘s conclusions. The Oxford University study said that more than 850,000 public sector jobs could fall to robots over the course of the next decade.

    Reform suggests that government employees should probably look into opportunities presented by the “sharing economy,” like driving for Uber – at least until robots replace those, too.

  • Senate Letter Reveals Staggering Number Of Murders By Illegal Aliens With Previous Criminal Convictions

    A letter written by the Senate Judiciary Committee in June 2015 to DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson, Secretary of State John Kerry and Attorney General Loretta Lynch reveals news facts about the number and nature of crimes committed by illegal immigrants who had already been convicted of other crimes but were released back into the public either because their home country would not accept their deportation and/or because they exceeded a Supreme Court mandate prohibiting detention of deportable foreign nationals beyond six months. 

    According to the letter, published by the Miami Herald, statistics provided by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials confirm that 121 homicides were committed in the U.S. between 2010-2014 by illegal immigrants who had already been convicted of a crime but were released back into society due to limitations on their detention.  In addition, ICE confirmed that of the 36,007 criminal aliens released from custody in 2013, 1,000 of them had already been convicted of new crimes as of June 2015.

    “This disturbing fact follows ICE’s admission that, of the 36,007 criminal aliens it released from ICE custody in Fiscal Year 2013, 1,000 have been re-convicted of additional crimes in the short time since their release,” according to the letter, dated June 12, 2015.

     

    The Senate Judiciary Committee letter revealed that 121 immigrant convicts were charged with homicide following their release from ICE custody between 2010 and 2014. It also noted that in 2014, ICE released 2,457 immigrant convicts because of the Supreme Court ruling prohibiting detention of deportable foreign nationals beyond six months.

     

    Most of these immigrant convicts are nationals of 23 countries described by ICE as “recalcitrant” because they routinely refuse to take back deportables. The bulk of these immigrant convicts in 2014 — 1,183 — were from Cuba, according to the letter. The other “recalcitrant” countries include Afghanistan, Algeria, China, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia and Zimbabwe, according to ICE.

     

    A committee spokeswoman did not provide additional information on the letter when contacted by el Nuevo Herald last week.

     

    But in response to the letter, Sarah Saldaña, then-director of ICE, stated that 33 of the 121 immigrant convicts accused of “homicide-related offenses” had been released on bond at the discretion of immigration courts. Another 24 were released because ICE was unable to obtain approval to deport them to their countries within the 180-day deadline set by the Supreme Court in 2001.

    Of course, throughout the campaign cycle Trump was very clear about his intentions to deport the ~2 million illegal aliens currently residing the country with criminal convictions on their records. 

     

    One weapon Trump has suggested he could wield to compel countries to take back their deportable nationals is halting the issuance of visas to visitors and immigrants from those nations.  While this has yet to happen, and would almost certainly result in additional legal challenges from the Left, it is certainly easy to imagine a scenario in which additional non-compliant countries could simply be added to his existing temporary immigration ban.

    In a speech in Phoenix during the campaign, Trump vowed to deport immigrant criminals regardless of whether their countries agreed to take them back.

    “There are at least 23 countries that refuse to take their people back after they’ve been ordered to leave the United States,” Trump said. “Including large numbers of violent criminals. They won’t take them back. So we say, ‘Okay, we’ll keep them.’ Not going to happen with me, not going to happen with me.”

    Of course, Trump’s appearances with the families of victims murdered at the hands of illegal immigrants was a common occurrence on the campaign trail.

    In his Phoenix immigration speech Aug. 31, Trump recalled the case of 21-year-old Sarah Root of Des Moines, Iowa, whose death in January 2016 was blamed on an undocumented immigrant who had been released after having been in custody despite being in the country illegally and having failed to show up in court for prior alleged crimes. Eswin Mejía, a Honduran, was charged in connection with Root’s death in a vehicle crash, was freed on bail and fled.

     

    Trump also cited the case of Grant Ronnebeck, a 21-year-old convenience store clerk from Mesa, Arizona, whose murder was also blamed on an undocumented immigrant who had been previously convicted of burglary and had been released from federal custody.

     

    Ronnebeck was killed allegedly over a pack of cigarettes in January 2015, and the murder was linked to Apolinar Altamirano, a Mexican national who was in deportation proceedings but who had been released on bond by an immigration court judge.

     

    A third case Trump mentioned was that of Kate Steinle, gunned down in San Francisco by an undocumented Mexican, Juan Francisco López Sánchez, who had been deported five times previously but had managed to cross the border again undetected.

     

    ICE officials have told Congress that they tried to prevent López Sánchez from bonding out of jail but failed to do so because authorities in San Francisco, a so-called “sanctuary city,” ignored an immigration detainer for the defendant.

    Not surprisingly, and despite the damning data provided by ICE officials, Obama’s former DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson told the Senate Judiciary Committee in April 2015 that he did not believe visa sanctions against recalcitrant countries was the right policy, saying “I don’t necessarily believe that we ought to suspend immigration, travel from any of these countries because of this particular issue.”

    Somehow we suspect the Trump administration disagrees with the former DHS Secretary on the seriousness of this “particular issue.”

    The full letter from the Senate Judiciary Committee can be read below:

  • The Silent Terror Of The FBI – Could The Fourth Reich Happen Here?

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “After five years of Hitler’s dictatorship, the Nazi police had won the FBI’s seal of approval.” – Historian Robert Gellately

     

    Adolf Hitler is alive and well in the United States, and he is fast rising to power.” – Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, on the danger posed by the FBI to our civil liberties

    Lately, there’s been a lot of rhetoric comparing Donald Trump to Adolf Hitler. The concern is that a Nazi-type regime may be rising in America.

    That process, however, began a long time ago.

    In fact, following the second World War, the U.S. government recruited Hitler’s employees, adopted his protocols, embraced his mindset about law and order, implemented his tactics in incremental steps, and began to lay the foundations for the rise of the Fourth Reich.

    Sounds far-fetched? Read on. It’s all documented.

    As historian Robert Gellately recounts, the Nazi police state was initially so admired for its efficiency and order by the world powers of the day that J. Edgar Hoover, then-head of the FBI, actually sent one of his right-hand men, Edmund Patrick Coffey, to Berlin in January 1938 at the invitation of Germany’s secret police—the Gestapo.

    The FBI was so impressed with the Nazi regime that, according to the New York Times, in the decades after World War II, the FBI, along with other government agencies, aggressively recruited at least a thousand Nazis, including some of Hitler’s highest henchmen.

    All told, thousands of Nazi collaborators—including the head of a Nazi concentration camp, among others—were given secret visas and brought to America by way of Project Paperclip. Subsequently, they were hired on as spies and informants, and then camouflaged to ensure that their true identities and ties to Hitler’s holocaust machine would remain unknown. All the while, thousands of Jewish refugees were refused entry visas to the U.S. on the grounds that it could threaten national security.

    Adding further insult to injury, American taxpayers have been paying to keep these ex-Nazis on the U.S. government’s payroll ever since. And in true Gestapo fashion, anyone who has dared to blow the whistle on the FBI’s illicit Nazi ties has found himself spied upon, intimidated, harassed and labeled a threat to national security.

    As if the government’s covert, taxpayer-funded employment of Nazis after World War II wasn’t bad enough, U.S. government agencies—the FBI, CIA and the military—have fully embraced many of the Nazi’s well-honed policing tactics, and have used them repeatedly against American citizens.

    Indeed, with every passing day, the United States government borrows yet another leaf from Nazi Germany’s playbook: Secret police. Secret courts. Secret government agencies. Surveillance. Censorship. Intimidation. Harassment. Torture. Brutality. Widespread corruption. Entrapment. Indoctrination. Indefinite detention.

    These are not tactics used by constitutional republics, where the rule of law and the rights of the citizenry reign supreme. Rather, they are the hallmarks of authoritarian regimes, where the only law that counts comes in the form of heavy-handed, unilateral dictates from a supreme ruler who uses a secret police to control the populace.

    That danger is now posed by the FBI, whose laundry list of crimes against the American people includes surveillance, disinformation, blackmail, entrapment, intimidation tactics, harassment and indoctrination, governmental overreach, abuse, misconduct, trespassing, enabling criminal activity, and damaging private property, and that’s just based on what we know.

    Whether the FBI is planting undercover agents in churches, synagogues and mosques; issuing fake emergency letters to gain access to Americans’ phone records; using intimidation tactics to silence Americans who are critical of the government; recruiting high school students to spy on and report fellow students who show signs of being future terrorists; or persuading impressionable individuals to plot acts of terror and then entrapping them, the overall impression of the nation’s secret police force is that of a well-dressed thug, flexing its muscles and doing the boss’ dirty work of ensuring compliance, keeping tabs on potential dissidents, and punishing those who dare to challenge the status quo.

    Whatever minimal restrictions initially kept the FBI’s surveillance activities within the bounds of the law have all but disappeared post-9/11. Since then, the FBI has been transformed into a mammoth federal policing and surveillance agency that largely operates as a power unto itself, beyond the reach of established laws, court rulings and legislative mandates.

    Consider the FBI’s far-reaching powers to surveil, detain, interrogate, investigate, prosecute, punish, police and generally act as a law unto themselves—much like their Nazi cousins, the Gestapo—and then try to convince yourself that the United States is still a constitutional republic.

    Just like the Gestapo, the FBI has vast resources, vast investigatory powers, and vast discretion to determine who is an enemy of the state.

    Today, the FBI employs more than 35,000 individuals and operates more than 56 field offices in major cities across the U.S., as well as 400 resident agencies in smaller towns, and more than 50 international offices. In addition to their “data campus,” which houses more than 96 million sets of fingerprints from across the United States and elsewhere, the FBI has also built a vast repository of “profiles of tens of thousands of Americans and legal residents who are not accused of any crime. What they have done is appear to be acting suspiciously to a town sheriff, a traffic cop or even a neighbor.” The FBI’s burgeoning databases on Americans are not only being added to and used by local police agencies, but are also being made available to employers for real-time background checks.

    All of this is made possible by the agency’s nearly unlimited resources (its minimum budget alone in fiscal year 2015 was $8.3 billion), the government’s vast arsenal of technology, the interconnectedness of government intelligence agencies, and information sharing through fusion centers—data collecting intelligence agencies spread throughout the country that constantly monitor communications (including those of American citizens), everything from internet activity and web searches to text messages, phone calls and emails.

    Much like the Gestapo spied on mail and phone calls, FBI agents have carte blanche access to the citizenry’s most personal information.

    Working through the U.S. Post Office, the FBI has access to every piece of mail that passes through the postal system: more than 160 billion pieces are scanned and recorded annually. Moreover, the agency’s National Security Letters, one of the many illicit powers authorized by the USA Patriot Act, allows the FBI to secretly demand that banks, phone companies, and other businesses provide them with customer information and not disclose those demands to the customer. An internal audit of the agency found that the FBI practice of issuing tens of thousands of NSLs every year for sensitive information such as phone and financial records, often in non-emergency cases, is riddled with widespread constitutional violations.

    Much like the Gestapo’s sophisticated surveillance programs, the FBI’s spying capabilities can delve into Americans’ most intimate details (and allow local police to do so, as well).

    In addition to technology (which is shared with police agencies) that allows them to listen in on phone calls, read emails and text messages, and monitor web activities, the FBI’s surveillance boasts an invasive collection of spy tools ranging from Stingray devices that can track the location of cell phones to Triggerfish devices which allow agents to eavesdrop on phone calls.  In one case, the FBI actually managed to remotely reprogram a “suspect’s” wireless internet card so that it would send “real-time cell-site location data to Verizon, which forwarded the data to the FBI.” Law enforcement agencies are also using social media tracking software to monitor Facebook, Twitter and Instagram posts. Moreover, secret FBI rules also allow agents to spy on journalists without significant judicial oversight.

    Much like the Gestapo’s ability to profile based on race and religion, and its assumption of guilt by association, the FBI’s approach to pre-crime allows it to profile Americans based on a broad range of characteristics including race and religion.

    The agency’s biometric database has grown to massive proportions, the largest in the world, encompassing everything from fingerprints, palm, face and iris scans to DNA, and is being increasingly shared between federal, state and local law enforcement agencies in an effort to target potential criminals long before they ever commit a crime. This is what’s known as pre-crime. Yet it’s not just your actions that will get you in trouble. In many cases, it’s also who you know—even minimally—and where your sympathies lie that could land you on a government watch list. Moreover, as the Intercept reports, despite anti-profiling prohibitions, the bureau “claims considerable latitude to use race, ethnicity, nationality, and religion in deciding which people and communities to investigate.”

    Much like the Gestapo’s power to render anyone an enemy of the state, the FBI has the power to label anyone a domestic terrorist.

    As part of the government’s so-called ongoing war on terror, the nation’s de facto secret police force has begun using the terms “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist” interchangeably. Moreover, the government continues to add to its growing list of characteristics that can be used to identify an individual (especially anyone who disagrees with the government) as a potential domestic terrorist. For instance, you might be a domestic terrorist in the eyes of the FBI (and its network of snitches) if you:

    • express libertarian philosophies (statements, bumper stickers)
    • exhibit Second Amendment-oriented views (NRA or gun club membership)
    • read survivalist literature, including apocalyptic fictional books
    • show signs of self-sufficiency (stockpiling food, ammo, hand tools, medical supplies)
    • fear an economic collapse
    • buy gold and barter items
    • subscribe to religious views concerning the book of Revelation
    • voice fears about Big Brother or big government
    • expound about constitutional rights and civil liberties
    • believe in a New World Order conspiracy

    Much like the Gestapo infiltrated communities in order to spy on the German citizenry, the FBI routinely infiltrates political and religious groups, as well as businesses.

    As Cora Currier writes for the Intercept: “Using loopholes it has kept secret for years, the FBI can in certain circumstances bypass its own rules in order to send undercover agents or informants into political and religious organizations, as well as schools, clubs, and businesses…” The FBI has even been paying Geek Squad technicians at Best Buy to spy on customers’ computers without a warrant.

    Just as the Gestapo united and militarized Germany’s police forces into a national police force, America’s police forces have largely been federalized and turned into a national police force.

    In addition to government programs that provide the nation’s police forces with military equipment and training, the FBI also operates a National Academy that trains thousands of police chiefs every year and indoctrinates them into an agency mindset that advocates the use of surveillance technology and information sharing between local, state, federal, and international agencies.

    Just as the Gestapo’s secret files on political leaders were used to intimidate and coerce, the FBI’s files on anyone suspected of “anti-government” sentiment have been similarly abused.

    As countless documents make clear, the FBI has no qualms about using its extensive powers in order to blackmail politicians, spy on celebrities and high-ranking government officials, and intimidate and attempt to discredit dissidents of all stripes. For example, not only did the FBI follow Martin Luther King Jr. and bug his phones and hotel rooms, but agents also sent him anonymous letters urging him to commit suicide and pressured a Massachusetts college into dropping King as its commencement speaker.

    Just as the Gestapo carried out entrapment operations, the FBI has become a master in the art of entrapment.

    In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks the FBI has not only targeted vulnerable individuals but has also lured or blackmailed them into fake terror plots while actually equipping them with the organization, money, weapons and motivation to carry out the plots—entrapment—and then jailing or deporting them for their so-called terrorist plotting. This is what the FBI characterizes as “forward leaning—preventative—prosecutions.” In addition to creating certain crimes in order to then “solve” them, the FBI also gives certain informants permission to break the law, “including everything from buying and selling illegal drugs to bribing government officials and plotting robberies,” in exchange for their cooperation on other fronts. USA Today estimates that agents have authorized criminals to engage in as many as 15 crimes a day. Some of these informants are getting paid astronomical sums: one particularly unsavory fellow, later arrested for attempting to run over a police officer, was actually paid $85,000 for his help laying the trap for an entrapment scheme.

    When and if a true history of the FBI is ever written, it will not only track the rise of the American police state but it will also chart the decline of freedom in America, in much the same way that the empowerment of Germany’s secret police tracked with the rise of the Nazi regime.

    How did the Gestapo become the terror of the Third Reich?

    It did so by creating a sophisticated surveillance and law enforcement system that relied for its success on the cooperation of the military, the police, the intelligence community, neighborhood watchdogs, government workers for the post office and railroads, ordinary civil servants, and a nation of snitches inclined to report “rumors, deviant behavior, or even just loose talk.”

    In other words, ordinary citizens working with government agents helped create the monster that became Nazi Germany. Writing for the New York Times, Barry Ewen paints a particularly chilling portrait of how an entire nation becomes complicit in its own downfall by looking the other way:

    In what may be his most provocative statement, [author Eric A.] Johnson says that ‘‘most Germans may not even have realized until very late in the war, if ever, that they were living in a vile dictatorship.’’ This is not to say that they were unaware of the Holocaust; Johnson demonstrates that millions of Germans must have known at least some of the truth. But, he concludes, ‘‘a tacit Faustian bargain was struck between the regime and the citizenry.’’ The government looked the other way when petty crimes were being committed. Ordinary Germans looked the other way when Jews were being rounded up and murdered; they abetted one of the greatest crimes of the 20th century not through active collaboration but through passivity, denial and indifference.

    Much like the German people, “we the people” have become passive, polarized, gullible, easily manipulated, and lacking in critical thinking skills.  Distracted by entertainment spectacles, politics and screen devices, we too are complicit, silent partners in creating a police state similar to the terror practiced by former regimes.

    Can the Fourth Reich happen here?

    As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, it’s already happening right under our noses.

  • China Drains CNY715 Billion In Liquidity After Fifth Day Without Reverse Repo

    What a difference three weeks makes. On January 18, heading into the Lunar New Year holidays, we reported that the PBOC had injected a record 1.04 trillion yuan into the liquidity-starved banking system in an attempt to avoid a liquidity crunch as telegraphed just days prior by dramatic surge in short-term repo rates.

    Since then, however, between the end of the holidays, and the stated Chinese intention to tighten the monetary system, things have changed drastically.

    First of all, last Friday, China announced an unexpected tightening of policy when it raised rates on 7, 14 and 28-day reverse repos by 10bps to 2.35%, 2.50% and 2.65% respectively. That was first increase in the 28-day contracts since 2015 and since 2013 for the other two tenors. As this was the first working day following the New Year holiday in China, it was a decent “statement of intent” by the PBoC.

    At the same time, as we explained on Sunday, in a parallel tightening eipsode, the PBOC also increased Standing Lending Facility rates on overnight/7-day/1-month tenors by 35bp/10bp/10bp (to 3.10%/3.35%/3.7%), sending Chinese government bond futures sliding as fears rose that China is actually serious about tightening this time.

    Then on Thursday morning, an article in China’s Securities Journal said that China may keep tightening monetary policy this year amid pressure from yuan rate stabilization, financial de-leveraging, curbs on real estate and faster inflation. In other words, China may have reached the phase where it admits it has a problem, and is ready to do something about it. What was notable is that the article hinted that while even more could be done, the economic basis and inflation situation don’t yet support China entering interest rate hike cycle.

    Translation: if inflation picks up more from here, the PBOC will use the shotgun approach and hike rates. For now however, the piece concluded that the central bank is focusing more on price tools, which means “an increase in open market rates may be considered guidance.”

    And sure enough, 20 days after the PBOC had injected a record CNY1+ trillion in liquidity, it is now draining it just as fast, and as the PBOC just reported, the Central Bank did not conduct any Reverse Repo open market operations for the fifth consecutive trading day “in order to maintain a stable level of liquidity in the interbank market”, the PBOC said in a statement on its website.

    With CNY150 billion of reverse repos maturing today, the PBOC’s lack of action had the effect of draining CNY150 billion from the market today.

    The PBOC also added that “while the central bank has started to gradually drain liquidity from the interbank market after the end of the Chinese New Year holiday, liquidity is still at an adequate level” repeating the explanation it used in the past three days.

    According to Market News, the market sees the lack of open market operations as a clear signal of tighter monetary policy. Furthermore, the consecutive stops of OMOs show PBOC’s bias for a prudent tilted to neutral monetary policy in a bid to prevent risks and reduce leverage ratio, said Ming Ming, chief analyst with CITIC Securities in a research note.

    In total, the PBOC has drained a total of CNY715 billion in liquidity so far this week, primarily as a result of maturing reverse repos which the central bank refuses to roll over. A total of CNY80 billion in reverse repos will mature later this week and the market will be watching the PBOC’s response closely. Should it perceive that the PBOC has withdrawn too much liquidity, another liquidity tantrum is inevitable.

  • What Is Trump's Approval Rating? It Depends On Who You Ask

    While we would never be the ones to question the integrity of “independent” pollsters, how could we given the amazing job they did predicting the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, we’re starting to grow a bit curious about the ever-widening gap in Trump’s approval ratings between the various polling institutions.

    For example, the latest Rasmussen daily tracking poll found that 53% of likely U.S. voters approve of President Trump’s job performance while 47% disapprove.

    Rasmussen

     

    Meanwhile, even the notorious “oversamplers” at Reuters found that Trump’s approval rating is just over 50%.

    Reuters

     

    That said, the vehemently impartial folks at ABC/WaPo recently drew a very different conclusion, finding that President Trump is basically the least popular candidate to take the White House in modern history, with a 40% approval rating… 

    ABC / Wapo Poll

     

    …while CNN came up with similar results finding that only 44% approve of President Trump.

    CNN

     

    And while we know what you’re thinking, we’re sure the divergent results from ABC/Wapo and CNN were in no way a disingenuous attempt to artificially manufacture a poor approval rating for President Trump, a candidate whose political views couldn’t be more divergent from their own.  After all, utilizing an aggressive 8-point sampling margin for Democrats, with only 23% of respondents identifying themselves as Republicans may call into question a pollster’s credibility…

    ABC Poll

     

    …which is probably why CNN decided to get smart by only showing a 4-point sampling advantage for Democrats while loading up their poll with independents instead...

    “A total of 1,002 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Among the entire sample, 29% described themselves as Democrats, 25% described themselves as Republicans, and 45% described themselves as independents or members of another party.”

    Of course, as we’ve repeatedly pointed out, these sampling mixes couldn’t be further from reality.

    Polling

     

    In conclusion:

  • Iranian Oil Will Not Be Stopped By Trump

    Submitted by Gregory Brew via OilPrice.com,

    Despite new sanctions by the Trump Administration and an escalating war of words regarding its ballistic missile program, Iran is continuing to push ahead with plans to maintain oil production at around 3.8 million bpd, the level agreed upon at the November OPEC meeting last year. In order to do so, Iran will need to attract billions in new investment, as its current production is based on aging fields and crumbling infrastructure.

    To maintain the current production level while continuing to export and meet domestic demand, Iran will need at least $100 billion in new investment. New U.S. sanctions, which target 25 Iranian individuals and entities said to be associated with the country’s missile program, is being touted as an “initial step” in the administration’s plan to push back hard on Iran’s regional ambitions, with National Security Advisor Michael Flynn announcing last week that the U.S. was “putting Iran on notice.” The Iranian response to the U.S. rhetoric has been mostly dismissive, with one Iranian official characterizing the Trump Administration as “inexperienced.”

    The question is how these new sanctions or future U.S. actions against Iran may inhibit the country’s recovering oil and gas industry. The announcement of the new sanctions caused a slight tremor in prices, which was offset by inventory reports and reviving U.S. output. If tensions between the U.S. and Iran were to escalate, it would place upward pressure on prices.

    Iran is set to announce a round of tenders in mid-February. Originally set for January, the tenders were delayed several weeks, in part due to disagreements within the Iranian government (which oversees the National Iranian Oil Company, or NIOC) over how best to attract foreign investment. Debates over new oil contracts raged all last summer, as the question of inviting more foreign companies into Iran is beset with political significance in a country still considerably isolated from international capital, as well as one that has a long history of distrusting foreign oil companies.

    According to Reuters, the first round of tenders has been repeatedly delayed, while major companies have made only hesitant inroads into Iran. Shell signed a provisional deal in December to develop three large oil and gas fields, but has yet to act on it. French company Total agreed in principle to a $2 billion deal to develop the South Pars natural gas field, with a 50.1 percent stake in the project

    The new round of U.S. sanctions, though they are limited in nature, are acting to deter U.S. companies from seeking new contracts. Deputy oil minister Amirhossein Zamaninia has welcomed interest from U.S. companies, but has warned that as long as the primary sanctions remain, “U.S. firms cannot play any role in Iran’s oil and gas industry.”

    Zamainnia has expressed hope that President Trump, as a “non-conventional politician,” will seek to revise U.S.-Iranian relations and seek business deals, which could potentially serve the U.S. economy. Yet Trump’s hard stance on Iran thus far, and the imposition of new sanctions, would make that appear unlikely. The Iranian press claims the new sanctions are isolating the U.S., rather than Iran, which is still free to pursue deals with European companies. “Iran has placed no limitations on American companies, but based on their own laws they are not allowed to attend oil tenders in Iran," Zamaninia told the press.

    Without U.S. companies participating, Iran could probably attract the investment it needs in the short-term. The tenders to be offered in February will include twenty-nine companies, most of them Chinese or East Asian, though Total and Shell have both been permitted to participate. BP was encouraged in January to bid once contracts became available, though the company has not said one way or the other whether it will participate.

    Iran remains primarily interested in attracting European capital. This makes sense, both from an economic and political perspective (and with the U.S. sanctions and new administration, politics will matter just as much as economics). Iran wants to start exporting in large quantities to Europe again, and last month it dispatched the first major tanker shipments to a European port in five years. Should U.S. antagonism towards Iran increase, to the point that President Trump considers imposing new sanctions or even backing out of the July 2015 nuclear deal, it would place no restraint on European countries like Germany, Great Britain and France, who were all parties to the deal.

    Germany company BASF, along with two other German petrochemical firms, has expressed an interest in investing as much as $12 billion in Iran, according to Iranian press sources. Total, for its part, has said that it is still ready to go through with its plan, now worth $4.8 billion, to develop South Pars.

    It should be noted that a lot of the enthusiasm being generated about possible investments in Iran are coming from Iran-affiliated news sources. It may take some time to see if the confidence being projected around Iran’s ability to attract ample investment accurately reflects industry confidence in the country’s ability to work with foreign companies.

    Nevertheless, should the February tenders be a success, and should Iran overcome its own political divisions regarding attracting foreign investment, there’s a strong chance the country will continue to develop its untapped oil and gas fields and continue the on-going recovery of its domestic energy industry, regardless of punitive actions taken by the United States.

  • Poll Finds Trump Administration Seen As More Truthful Than News Media

    An Emerson College poll found that in the early days of the Trump administration, the nation remains almost evenly split on Donald Trump’s performance as President, with 48% of registered voters approving of the job Trump is doing, versus 47% who disapprove. The variance falls largely along party lines: Republicans approve of Trump  89%/5%, while Democrats disapprove of the President by a margin of 81% to 17%. What is keeping Trump’s from passing the 50% threshold in the poll is his standing among independents, who disapprove of him 52%/42%.

    Yet despite the initial confusion about Trump’s approval, a more interesting observations from the same poll is that according to voters, the Trump administration was viewed as vastly more trustworthy than the news media. The Trump administration is considered truthful by 49% of voters, to 48%  of voters who consider it untruthful. Meanwhile, the news media is considered untruthful by a  53% – majority of voters, to only 39% who find them truthful (a 14 – point gap).

    The partisan split on this topic is clear: 89% of Republicans find the Trump administration truthful, versus 77% of Democrats who find the administration untruthful. Conversely, 69% of Democrats find the news media truthful, while a whopping 91% of Republicans consider them untruthful, which may explain the origin of the “liberal media” moniker. Meanwhile, independents consider both untruthful  – the Trump administration by a margin of 42%/52% and the news media by a  margin of 45%/47%.

    A recent Gallup poll on the public’s trust in media revealed an even more disturbing picture: before the election, a paltry 32% of Americans trusted the fourth estate, with only 14% of Republicans.

    The national Emerson College poll was conducted February 5-6 under. The sample consisted of 617 registered voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. The full poll can be read here.

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Today’s News 8th February 2017

  • The Left Hates You. Act Accordingly.

    Submitted by Kurt Schlichter via Townhall.com,

    They hate you.

    Leftists don’t merely disagree with you. They don’t merely feel you are misguided. They don’t think you are merely wrong. They hate you. They want you enslaved and obedient, if not dead. Once you get that, everything that is happening now will make sense. And you will understand what you need to be ready to do.

    You are normal, and therefore a heretic. You refuse to bow to their idols, to subscribe to their twisted catechisms, to praise their false gods. This is unforgivable. You must burn.

    Crazy talk? Just ask them. Go ahead. Go on social media. Find a leftist – it’s easy. Just say something positive about America or Jesus and they’ll come swarming like locusts. Engage them and very quickly they will drop their masks and tell you what they really think. I know. I keep a rapidly expanding file of Twitter leftist death wish screenshots.

    They will tell you that Christians are idiots and vets are scum.

    That normals are subhumans whose role is to labor as serfs to subsidize the progressive elite and its clients.

    That you should die to make way for the New Progressive Man/Woman/Other.

    Understand that when they call Donald Trump “illegitimate,” what they are really saying is that our desire to govern ourselves is illegitimate. Their beef isn’t with him – it’s with us, the normal people who dared rise up and demand their right to participate in the rule of this country and this culture.

    They hate you, because by defying them you have prevented them from living up to the dictates of their false religion. Our rebelliousness has denied them the state of grace they seek, exercising their divine right to dictate every aspect of our puny lives. Their sick faith gives meaning to these secular weirdos, giving them something that fills their empty lives with a messianic fervor to go out and conquer and convert the heathens.

    And the heathens are us.

    Oh, there are different leftist sects. There are the social justice warriors who have manufactured a bizarre mythology and scripture of oppression, privilege, and intersectionality. Instead of robes, they dress up as genitals and kill babies as a blasphemous sacrament. Then there are the pagan weather religion oddballs convinced that the end is near and that we must repent by turning in our SUVs. Of course, the “we” is really “us” – high priests of the global warming cult like Leonardo DiCaprio will still jet around the world with supermodels while we do the ritual sacrificing of our modern comforts. Then there are the ones who simply worship themselves, the elitists who believe that all wisdom and morality has been invested in them merely because they went to the right college, think the right thoughts, and sneer at anyone living between I-5 and I-95.

    But all the leftist sects agree – they have found the revealed truth, and imposing it upon the benighted normals like us is so transcendently important that they are relieved of any moral limitations. They are ISIS, except with hashtags instead of AKs, committed to the establishment of a leftist caliphate.

    You wonder why the left is now justifying violence? Because they think that helps them right now. Today it’s suddenly OK to punch a “Nazi.” But the punchline is that anyone who opposes them is a “Nazi.”

    You wonder why they ignore the rule of law, why they could switch on a dime from screaming at Trump for refusing to preemptively legitimize a Hillary win and then scream that he is illegitimate the moment she lost? Because their only principle is what helps the left win today. That’s why the media gleefully, happily lies every single day about every single thing it reports. Objectivity? When that stopped being a useful thing, it stopped being a thing at all.

    They are fanatics, and by not surrendering, by not kneeling, and by not obeying, you have committed an unpardonable sin. You have defied the Left, and you must be broken. They will take your job, slander your name, even beat or kill you – whatever it takes to break you and terrify others by making you an example. Your defiance cannot stand; they cannot allow this whole Trump/GOP majority thing to get out of control. They must crush this rebellion of the normal, and absolutely nothing is off the table.

    We’ve seen them burn UC Berkeley and how the police controlled by the leftist state government of California stood by and watched as Americans were beaten by the mob. Why? Because the government of the State of California approves of the violence. Do you think it’s a coincidence that California is doing everything it can to disarm its normals?

    The Left won’t say it out loud – at least not yet – but make no mistake. If violence is what it takes for the Left to prevail, then violence we will have. You saw it, and you were meant to. Berkeley was a message about the price of dissent where leftist hold sway. And they seek to hold sway everywhere

    How to we respond?

    The first step is to end the denial. Open your eyes. See what is happening. Don’t allow yourself to be deluded by false nostalgia for a past period of cultural peace that existed only because, at that time, the Left was winning. They hate you. Look at Twitter. Look at Facebook. Try and tell yourself that leftists are just nice people who disagree with you on a few policy details. Stop fooling yourself.

    Understand that this must get much worse before it can get better. We may wish to stop the cultural/political struggle, but they can’t stop. Their religion tells them we are greedy, racist, sexist, homophobe morons who hate science and love Hitler. How could they tolerate us? How could they ever allow us power?

    They can’t. Their sick ideology and false theology requires that we be enslaved or exterminated – we can’t be tolerated, and we certainly can’t be allowed to hold the reins of power. I hoped that my novel People’s Republic, about what lies at the bottom of this blood-soaked slippery slope, would be rendered moot by the GOP’s victory in November. I was wrong. The Left has redoubled its efforts.

    So the only outcome is that one side wins and the other loses. There’s no truce to be had, no possibility of a tie. And the frightening thing is that the Left is so foolish, so stuck in its bubble that it has no understanding that it can only push so far before the people with all the guns and all the training push back. That’s the problem with kids who were raised on participation trophies and who never got into a fistfight – they don’t consider the possibility that they will lose, and lose hard.

    We must ensure they do. Understand your enemy. Understand that the Left will exploit your principles and morals to make you disarm yourself – figuratively and literally. Don’t play their game; don’t fall for their manufactured outrages. Never concede their lies, never take their side against the people defending your liberty. Most of all, accept the truth that if we let them win we will spend the rest of our lives on our backs with a giant Birkenstock pressed into our collective face.

    They hate us. And however they come at us, we need to be prepared to fight.

  • Fake News for Fake People in an Engineered Fake Culture

    America really is the land of the dreams.  Dreams, take many forms; hallucinations, nightmares, delusions, bad trips.

    Fake News is really descriptive; how about Fake culture, fake people, fake life.  Is America real?  You wouldn’t think there are people living here if you walk down most streets, all you see is cars, the occasional dog walkers, and the radiant glow of the TV screen.  Just forget it all!

    You know, nothing captures the fake culture better than music – music is the backbone of mainstream American culture (unfortunately) – in other cultures the backbone can be science, socialization, or in primal societies, dancing around a fire at night wearing masks and costumes.

    There’s no better characterization of fake news than the famous “Dirty Laundry” by Don Henly.

    I make my living off the evening news

    Just give me something-something I can use

    People love it when you lose,

    They love dirty laundry

    Well, I coulda been an actor, but I wound up here

    I just have to look good, I don’t have to be clear

    Come and whisper in my ear

    Give us dirty laundry

    We got the bubble-headed-bleach-blond

    Who comes on at five

    She can tell you ’bout the plane crash with a gleam in her eye

    It’s interesting when people die

    Give us dirty laundry

    Can we film the operation?

    Is the head dead yet?

    You know, the boys in the newsroom got a running bet

    Get the widow on the set!

    We need dirty laundry

    You don’t really need to find out what’s going on

    You don’t really want to know just how far it’s gone

    Just leave well enough alone

    Eat your dirty laundry

    Kick ’em when they’re up

    Kick ’em when they’re down

    Kick ’em when they’re stiff

    Kick ’em all around

    Dirty little secrets

    Dirty little lies

    We got our dirty little fingers in everybody’s pie

    We love to cut you down to size

    We love dirty laundry

    We can do “The Innuendo”

    We can dance and sing

    When it’s said and done we haven’t told you a thing

    We all know that Kraft is king

    Give us dirty laundry!

    American culture has been bought and sold to the Corporation generations ago.  This recent meme about Fake News really captures the ‘reality moment’ America is having, and isn’t it fitting, a ‘reality TV star’ is President of the United States of America.  “Reality” TV is the same ironic oxi-moron metaphor as Fake News – Reality TV – isn’t real.  On the surface, it means – it’s not a scripted ‘program’ but the hidden innuendo – is that it’s REAL, as in REAL LIFE, which IT’S NOT!

    Fake News is for Fake people (being from Boca Raton, FL author can attest there really is such a thing as a ‘fake’ person!) 

    But, what is real anyway?  

    fs

    People are real.  Objects are real.  

    Money is not real.  Ideas are not real.  Concepts, are abstractions.

    So there you go – we’ve taken you down the rabbit hole far enough.  If you want to know what’s at the end of the hole, pay, and you will see!

  • And The Oscar Goes To… Chuck Schumer

    It appears President Trump was correct… “fake tears”? You decide…


    Necessary… Or Evil?

    We wonder if Schumer will be the star of the next Heineken commercial?

  • Sean Hannity Goes Nuclear on GOP Obstructionists for Not Acting on Trump’s Agenda

    On his radio show this afternoon, Sean Hannity chimped out and called out republican shills who’ve been obstructing President Trump’s agenda by twiddling their thumbs and not writing bills to fund infrastructure projects, tax cuts and healthcare reform.

    Essentially, Trump is at the mercy of a very corrupt and globalist shilling GOP — led by a man (Paul Ryan) who is as vacuous as his democratic counterparts.

    Hannity promised to call them out, one by one, and to make their phones ring non-stop if they didn’t get off their asses and start working for the American people.

    Epic takedown.

     

     

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Senate Votes To Gag Elizabeth Warren After Anti-Sessions Outburst

    Not The Onion. Following a scathing speech against Trump's nominee for Attorney General, Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell said Senator Elizabeth Warren had "impugned the motives and conduct of our colleague from Alabama," violating the so-called 'Rule 19'. By a vote of 49-43, Senator Warren was then barred from speaking on the floor until Senator Sessions nomination debate is complete (likely tomorrow evening).

    Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who was presiding over the the Senate during the Massachusetts Democrat's speech – who at times was repeating words being said to him by GOP Senate floor staff – initially interrupted Warren to warn her that she was on the brink of violating the rule.

    As The Hill reports, the drama on the Senate floor comes after McConnell interrupted Warren's speech accusing her of breaking the upper chamber's guidelines.

    “The senator has impugned the motives and conduct of our colleague from Alabama,” McConnell said from the Senate floor.

     

    “I call the senator to order under the provisions of Rule 19.”

     

    Under the Senate’s “Rule 19,” senators are not allowed to “directly or indirectly, by any form of words impute to another Senator or to other Senators any conduct or motive unworthy or unbecoming a Senator."

    Warren offered a blistering speech against Sessions's nomination, arguing he wouldn’t stand up to Trump’s “campaign of bigotry.”

    “He made derogatory and racist comments that should have no place in our justice system,” she said.

     

    “To put Sen. Sessions in charge of the Department of Justice is an insult to African-Americans.”

     

    Warren quoted a 1986 speech from the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) who referred to Sessions as a “throwback to a shameful era” and a “disgrace” to the Justice Department.

    McConnell defended the decision, noting Warren had been warned.

    "Sen. Warren was giving a lengthy speech. She had appeared to violate the rule. She was warned. She was given an explanation," he said after the vote. "Nevertheless, she persisted."

     

     

    McConnell also specifically pointed to Warren quoting a letter from the late Coretta Scott King, civil rights activist and wife of Martin Luther King Jr., as evidence that she had broken the rules.Coretta Scott King wrote in 1986, during Sessions's failed confirmation hearing for a federal judgeship, that he “had used the awesome power of his office to chill the free exercise of the vote by black citizens" as a U.S. attorney in Alabama. When Warren said she was "surprised" by McConnell's actions and asked to continue, the Republican objected and was backed up by Daines, effectively ending Warren's speech. 

    Warren rejected McConnell's move, tweeting to her millions of followers that

    "I will not be silent while the Republicans rubber stamp an AG who will never stand up to the @POTUS when he breaks the law."

    Of course, Democrats did what they do best in response – unleashed a social media frenzy of hurt fellings capped by the hashtag #LetLizSpeak.

    But Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) – the Senate's top Democrat – had the last word… "If the average American heard someone read a letter from Coretta Scott King … they would not be offended, It seems to me that we could use Rule 19 almost every day on the floor of the Senate. This is selective enforcement."

     

  • Army Preps For Urban Warfare In MegaCities: "Mass Migration, Disaster, And Inner-City Turmoil"

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    There will be war in the streets of America. Things have been engineered that way.

    The scenarios are many, the issues are complex. The current anger from the left, who are violently protesting against President Trump, is just one aspect of it.

    But the Pentagon and the U.S. national security structure is increasingly looking towards the shifting demographics around the globe – people have moved from rural areas, and shifted into cities. Where ever conflict stirs, there will be a need for military and SWAT response to the call. Entire cities will be locked down; door to door sweeps will often have violent ends.

    Baghdad could be brought home to the streets of America, and the military already knows it.

    The powers that be are deeply concerned about the unfolding situations with migrants, illegal immigrants, potential terrorists, political factions, violent protests, arson and riots.

    Increasingly, they are training for and expecting a homegrown conflict that will call for them to restore order in a major cities – and even hunt down suspects block to block, like in the Boston Marathon bombing incident, while making some significant infringement of our civil liberties.

    During the past several years, there have been reports about unannounced urban warfare drills in major U.S. cities, sometimes in coordination with major events; there have also been military training scenarios that have maintained a consistent theme of civil unrest, economic breakdown and widespread riots.

    As Intellihub reported:

    For years the alternative media has warned about the US military possibly being used against the American people in a time of economic collapse or any sort of martial law scenario.

    Drills such as Vigilant Guard 2010 have brought widespread attention to the fact that portions of our own military are training to take on crowds of American citizens demanding food and Constitutional rights in a time of crisis.

    Now, a new release by the website Public Intelligence, once again confirms that as recently as February and March of 2012, US troops at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington were conducting training scenarios for a civil disturbance domestic quick reaction force.

    A series of photos of the drills shows US troops with crowd control riot shields on the opposite side of actors portraying what can only be described as American citizens.

    What do the elite know that we don’t?

    Now, a major military scholar is calling for the creation of “megacities combat units” – a proposal that is a major and drastic departure from warfare of the past, which has been designed away from cities. Now, military and paramilitary units, as well as local law enforcement, much engage the population itself – with all the unpredictability afforded by a real life, complex situation filled with combatants, non-combatants and friendlies behind any and all doors, etc.

    With a heightened focus on terrorism and reigning in undocumented immigrants, there will be a tendency, if we are not careful, for a heightened militarized and police state atmosphere to arise – both at home, and in everyplace that they take the fight.

    Major John Spencer, a former Ranger Instructor and scholar at West Point’s Modern War Institute called for an armed unit ready for megacities deployment in an op-ed:

    Every year, more and more of the world’s population moves into cities. The number of megacities is growing exponentially. Both of these global patterns and their inevitable consequences for military operations are well documented. Yet we still do not have units that are even remotely prepared to operate in megacities. If we want to find success on the urban battlefields the US Army will inevitably find itself fighting on in the future, that needs to change.

     

    Throughout history, military forces either sought to avoid or simply had no need to engage in urban combat. Most military doctrine, and the strategic theory it is built upon, encourages land forces to bypass, lay siege to, or—if required—isolate and slowly clear cities from the outside in. The great armies of the world have historically fought for cities rather than in cities, a distinction with a significant difference. In cases where military forces had no choice but to operate within cities, the environment, almost without exception, proved very costly in both military and civilian casualties. Today, many armies have accepted that global population growth and urbanization trends will increasingly force military operations into crowded cities, and military forces must therefore be capable of conducting the full range of operations in large, dense urban areas.

     

    Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley recently remarked that the Army “has been designed, manned, trained and equipped for the last 241 years to operate primarily in rural areas.” But that is about to change. Milley continued:

     

    […]

     

    The conclusions of the SSG research are clear: megacities are unavoidable, they are potentially the most challenging environment the Army has ever faced, and the Army is unprepared to operate in them.

     

    […]

     

    One ongoing military study of megacities is the NATO Urbanization Project. […] In the project’s most recent experiment, the NATO team conducted a wargame to determine the capabilities needed to achieve the goals of three likely missions in 2035: response to mass migration, natural disaster, and inner-city turmoil. Within these missions, the wargame specified that a brigade conduct three operations in a megacity—joint forcible entry, major combat, and subsequent stability operations—without unacceptable levels of military or civilian casualties.

     

    […]

     

    Of course, urban warfare is not exclusively a future phenomenon. Much has been learned from urban battles in recent history: the Siege of Sarajevo (1992–95); the Battle of Mogadishu (1993); Russian operations in Grozny (1994–95 and 1999–2000); US operations in Baghdad (2003) and Fallujah (2004); Lebanese operations in Nahr al-Bared, Lebanon (2007); and the Second Battle of Donetsk (2014–15). But the broad lessons of these cases have yet to truly inform Army training for urban combat, which for most units consists mainly of tactical training (e.g., room clearing drills with four-man teams). The Army would be much better served by the creation of an entire unit dedicated to preparing to operate in dense urban environments, particularly megacities.

    Any way you slice it, the military and the national security infrastructure are watching for cracks in the system.

    People are at their wits end, and many are on the edge of poverty – and for many, it just won’t take much more to set them loose, and let riots erupt. Whether the system wants those to spread, or wants to suppress and contain them, they know they are coming.

    Population pressures, and clashing groups within growing city centers are creating more problems, and compounding old ones.

    If the economic stability of a given region were to give way, nearly every megacity would spiral out of control and descend into absolute madness – whether or this continent or any other.

    via Nicholas West:

     The following Pentagon video was featured by The Intercept and portrays the chilling atmosphere presented by sheer numbers and those who would enter such environments in the pursuit of order.
     
    Drills such as “Unified Quest” run yearly by the U.S. Army took a sharper turn in 2014 toward addressing the problem of combat in megacities – defined as cities with more than 10 million people, of which there already are nearly 25 and projected to total near 40 by the year 2025. The Pentagon’s own solicitation early last year called “Thunderstorm Spiral” was a request for “help from technological innovators to take on the future of warfare.” This appeared to indicate that in addition to boots on the ground, an additional pervasive centralized intelligence apparatus would be needed to properly plan for troop movements through such dense but vast environments that also would be made up of networks underground.

    Rather than trying to guess what specific crisis may spill over into violence, or bring things to a stand still in traffic or electronic commerce, just consider the piling pressure that is growing in the techno hubs and swelling urban population centers.

    New York, Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and dozens of enormous cities around the world are all completely vulnerable. Depending upon the political situation, unrest, violence or whatever else could spread across the entire Eastern half of the U.S., and the entire country could face collapse as it has never before known it. It is only a question of timing and circumstance.

    Preppers should take all this into account. Modern life may make a connection to the city unavoidable prior to the collapse, but being insufficiently away from major urban centers is definitely a liability in times of crisis. Even outlying neighbors can be subject to looting, natural disaster, grid shutdown, riots, and many other situations. Make arrangements to shelter away from the city, and make sure you can get there safely and quickly when something goes down.

    Do not rely on the services or goods of these cities, and get out while you still can. There are some very major crises brewing right now. They are preparing; you should, too.

    h/t Nicholas West, Activist Post

  • Goldman Stunned By Collapse In Gasoline Demand: "This Would Require A US Recession"

    While energy traders remain focused on weekly changes in crude supply and demand, manifesting in shifts in inventory of which today’s API  data, which showed the second biggest inventory build in history, was a breathtaking example of how OPEC’s “production cut” is clearly not working, a much more troubling datapoint was revealed by the Energy Information Administration last week when it reported implied gasoline demand.

    To be sure, surging gasoline supply and inventories are hardly surprising or new: they remain a byproduct of the unprecedented global crude inventories leftover from two years of failed OPEC policy which resulted in a historic glut. Last January, overall crude runs were up 500,000 bpd as refiners shifted away from diesel and other products to gasoline to chase more attractive margins amid a mild winter and sluggish diesel demand. The move led to an overbuild of gasoline stocks that lingered into the summer, punishing margins when they should have been at their strongest. This January, crude runs are at historic levels, up by roughly 300,000 bpd over last year.

    So yes, both gasoline stocks and supply remains at extremely high levels, but what set off alarm bells is not supply, but demand: the EIA last week reported that the 4-week average of gasoline supplied – or implied gasoline demand – in the United States was 8.2 million barrels per day, the lowest since February 2012. And, as Reuters adds, U.S. refiners are now facing the prospects of weakening gasoline demand for the first time in five years.

     

    Unlike excess supply, which may have numerous factors, when it comes to a plunge in end product demand the implication can be
    only one: the US consumer is very ill, especially when considering that gasoline use has grown every year since 2012, despite fears that demand has topped out amid the growth of fuel efficient cars, urbanization and a graying population.

    Upon learning the data, the industry’s immediate concern was about refiners and what it means for already sagging margins: U.S. gasoline demand is closely watched by traders since it accounts for roughly 10 percent of global consumption. U.S. refiners amassed large inventories that punished margins last year, but record gasoline demand and robust exports helped provided a firewall against further slippage. Now the industry faces the prospects of higher crude prices following global production cuts and fresh federal data that suggests their gasoline demand safety net may be eroding.

    “It’s tough to base conclusions solely on the weekly data, which can be off significantly,” said Mark Broadbent, a refinery analyst with Wood Mackenzie. “If the demand is low as it the data shows, then it’s a going to be real problem for refiners.”

    But it could be a far bigger problem in what it means for the broader economy.

    * * *

    Enter Goldman which cuts right to the point: “A 6% fall in US demand would require a US recession

    As Goldman analyst Damien Courvalin notes, “implied demand data points to US gasoline demand in January declining 460 kb/d or 5.2% year-on-year. In the absence of a base effect, such a decline has only occurred in four periods since 1960 during which time PCE contracted.”

    Goldman then adds that “to achieve the 5.9% decline suggested by the weekly data, our model requires PCE to contract 6%, in other words, a recession.”


    So is the gasoline demand data accurate, and is a recession quietly gripping over the US, even as most other indicators are calmly flashing green?

    Here Goldman refuses to believe the official data, instead reverting to its own model, which “adjusts” the data, to goalseek the decline to appear more manageable.

    Given that the December PCE printed 2.8% growth, in line with its
    performance throughout 2016, we find such a sudden collapse unlikely… our revised model for gasoline demand, which regresses year-on-year change in demand on analogous growth in PCE, pump prices, efficiency, number of public holidays and base effect, points to a 30 kb/d or 0.3% decline. Alternatively, given our economists’ forecast for PCE to grow 2.6% in 1Q17, such a decline would require a yoy efficiency gain of almost 20% vs. the maximum historical gain of 8%. Finally, the potential reduction in demand on account of the Presidential Inauguration on 20 January is offset by one less weekend day vs. the same period in January 2016.

    Goldman then calculates what it believes is the accurate collapse in implied gasoline demand, instead of the 460k b/d reported by the EIA:

    Our analysis identifies weekly yield and exports as systematically deviating from their final values and such biases suggest that demand could be revised higher by 190 kb/d. The EIA’s real-time export data still includes estimates and we see potential for the recent shifts in the Mexican gasoline market to exacerbate the overstatement of US exports by an additional 185 kb/d given (1) lower PEMEX refinery turnarounds, and seasonally lower demand exacerbated by the January 16% hike in prices. Adjusting for these lower exports points to US gasoline demand declining only 85 kb/d yoy in January, in line with our macro model.

    Next, Goldman pulls the oldest trick in the book and suggests that it is not implied demand that is plunging, but supply that is soaring and is simply not being captured by the government:

    we view the larger than seasonal ytd builds in US gasoline stocks as driven by transient supply factors rather than persistent demand issues. In the case of Mexico, we expect that at current set prices, gasoline demand will decline by 25 kb/d yoy in 2017, with demand falling by 75 kb/d if prices gradually reached global prices this year.

    In conclusion, Goldman chooses to ignore the data, and to base its conclusion on its own fudged data:

    Looking forward, we reiterate our outlook for strong global demand growth in 2017 and view the recent US gasoline builds as reflective of transient regional shifts in gasoline supply instead. Given our outlook for strong consumer spending in 2017, we believe that US gasoline demand growth will remain resilient this year at 60 kb/d, albeit below last year’s 150 kb/d growth because of higher prices.  From a global perspective, these declines remain modest, especially compared to the 510 kb/d 2016 demand growth from the 40 countries we track.

    So is Goldman right implying the EIA gasoline demand data is wrong, or is Goldman once again incorrect – as it has so frequently been over the past year – which would mean that, as the bank itself admits, the US consumer, and economy, are in the throes of a deep recession? We hope to get a partial answer tomorrow, when the DOE reports the latest weekly inventory data.

  • House Republican Introduces Bill To Abolish Dept. Of Education On Same Day DeVos Confirmed To Run It

    In a slight bit of irony, a Republican Representative from the state of Kentucky, Thomas Massie, introduced H.R. 899, a bill written to abolish the Department of Education in it’s entirety, on the same day that Vice President Pence cast the unprecedented, tie-breaking vote to confirm that department’s new Secretary, Betsy DeVos

    Apparently Massie is “in to the whole brevity thing” as the entire bill consists of a single sentence:

    “The Department of Education shall terminate on December 31, 2018.”

    We wonder how many legal hours were billed by expensive D.C. attorneys in the drafting this legislation?

    Massie

     

    Massie provided a little more insight in a press release that included comments from some of the bill’s seven other Republicans sponsors, including: House Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz (Utah) and Reps. Justin Amash (Mich.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Jody Hice (Ga.), Walter Jones (N.C.) and Raúl Labrador (Idaho).

    Department of Education shall terminate on December 3On the day of Betsy DeVos’ scheduled Senate confirmation for Secretary of Education, Massie said, “Neither Congress nor the President, through his appointees, has the constitutional authority to dictate how and what our children must learn.”

     

    Massie added, “Unelected bureaucrats in Washington, D.C. should not be in charge of our children’s intellectual and moral development. States and local communities are best positioned to shape curricula that meet the needs of their students. Schools should be accountable. Parents have the right to choose the most appropriate educational opportunity for their children, including home school, public school, or private school.”

     

    “For years, I have advocated returning education policy to where it belongs – the state and local level,” said Rep. Walter Jones, an original co-sponsor.  “D.C. bureaucrats cannot begin to understand the needs of schools and its students on an individual basis. It is time that we get the feds out of the classroom, and terminate the Department of Education.”

     

    “I’ve always been a proponent of empowering parents, teachers and local school boards who best know our children and their needs,” said Rep. Raul Labrador, another original co-sponsor. “Eliminating the U.S. Department of Education is the most important step we in Congress can take in returning decision making to the local level.”

     

    “Education of our students should lie primarily with parents, teachers, and state and local officials who know how to meet their individual needs best,” said freshman Rep. Andy Biggs. “Since its inception, the Department of Education has grown into an unrecognizable federal beast, and its policies have helped foster Common Core across the country. It is time the one-size-fits-all approach by the federal government is ended and authority is returned to the local level.”

    Well, this is awkward…the only thing that would be more awkward would be if the person taking over the Department had previously been the one to call for it’s abolishment…oh wait, that happened.

  • Authoritarians At The Gate: How One High School Is Ripping Its Community Apart

    We strongly advise you to put down all sharp objects before reading the following…

    Submitted by Mark Glennon via WirePoints.com,

    Not since the Vietnam War have I seen as much strife and personal hostility within an otherwise friendly community.

    Thank the administration of New Trier High School in north suburban Chicago. This story is about the madness on college campuses now being crammed down into a public high school. More importantly, it’s about an angry brawl now growing rapidly.

    Oblivious to how identity politics have divided the country, the school is holding an attendance-mandatory All-School Seminar Day with the stated goal of “understanding today’s struggle for racial civil rights.”

    That sounds fine, but the problem is that it serves no such goal. The agenda is brazenly and unquestionably one-sided, divisive, political and radically left. Understanding civil rights, as New Trier sees it, doesn’t mean challenging students to sort through competing ideas. It means force-fed dogma.

    Results were entirely predictable. Conservative and moderate parents, including me, erupted over what we see as propaganda masquerading as education cloaked in the language of togetherness. We’ve publicly made a simple request: Add balance to the program by including topics and speakers to expose students to a fair range of ideas.

    Balance, that’s it. If the school is unwilling to add that balance, then the seminar should be cancelled or, at a minimum, attendance should be made optional. Those feeling that way put up a website linked here and have launched a petition drive linked here.

    Reaction to the request for balance was also predictable. Program supporters took to social media saying critics want to censor out discussion about race, don’t care about civil rights, are bad parents for trying to shield their children and, of course, that we’re racist.

    Sure we’re racist – as program supporters see things. Systemic, invisible racism is the core theme of the program. As one workshop description puts it, “Most systemic racism is invisible…often to both ‘sides’…until you know it’s there. Once you know it’s there, you can’t stop seeing it.” Our racism is so clear, in other words, that it should be taught as fact and not one of many viewpoints.

    Hostility is growing much more intense and personal. Before we get to that, some background:

    The School District

    New Trier High School is often ranked among the best in the country. It covers very prosperous suburbs north of Chicago and is overwhelmingly white. The township was traditionally conservative and Republican but is now solidly liberal and Democratic, based on the last election cycle and polls I’ve seen.

    New Trier High School’s main campus

    The Seminar

    Let’s look at some samples of the workshops.

    • One of the invited speakers is a rapper named John the Author. Here’s a segment from his work:

    Divide and conquer, white supremacy the silent monster
    I see you sneaking in the corner trying to have some karma
    We ain’t looking to know your honor, No your honor we (?) problem
    The resolution is an economic revolution,All in the name of retribution, you ready? Let’s do it,They integrated then infiltrated through immigration
    The richest folk in our neighborhood ain’t even our neighbors
    They take the dollar back across town, don’t you dare tell me to calm down
    (?) mister doghouse,We want it all now, it’s time to push ‘em all out—I’m ready to start now

    •  “A People’s History of Chicago” will look at race “in the tradition of Howard Zinn.” Zinn wrote A People’s History of America, about which black, conservative economist Thomas Sowell wrote,

    It speaks volumes about our schools and colleges that far-left radical Howard Zinn’s pretentiously titled book, “A People’s History of the United States,” is widely used across the country. It is one indictment, complaint, and distortion after another. Anyone who relies on this twisted version of American history would have no idea why millions of people from around the world are trying, sometimes desperately, to move to this country. The one virtue of Zinn’s book is that it helps you identify unmistakably which teachers are using their classrooms as propaganda centers.

    • Another segment is “Spent: A simulation to see how long you can survive on minimum wage.” Any bets they won’t be simulating how long you can survive on no wage, which countless economists argue is the result for some from minimum wage laws?

    New Trier didn’t let the topic for the seminar, racial civil rights, stop them from throwing in a couple other progressive favorites:

    • In one segment, “SOARS’ creator, Scheherazade, discusses the role arts can play in creating a national movement to end sexual violence.”
    • Another segment on the Equal Rights Amendment will ask, “Why hasn’t it been ratified? Do we even need it anymore? Let’s talk about it!”

    It doesn’t help that some presentations are just plain silly:

    • There’s “Disney and Racial Stereotypes: Watch classic Disney animated films and discuss how these films influence childhood development of racial identities.”
    • Another says, “Come to the Northfield Library and read picture books to a group of children (ages 3-5). The picture books will focus on themes of embracing diversity, accepting others and oneself, and social justice.”
    • Then there’s “Racist Memorabilia Through the Ages.”
    • My personal favorite is “Microaggressions: Not So Small.” Maybe it should be subtitled “Tolerance for oxymorons!”

    The rest of agenda for the day is posted on links here and here. You’ll find only four or five out of the hundred or so that would seem to present even a moderate perspective. Read the whole agenda and you’ll see that this summary written by its critics is valid:

    • The Seminar claims: “Identity” is defined by race. Period. It is fixed and determinative. (The term  “racial,” “racist,” “bias,” and “systemic racism” suffuse the panel descriptions, together appearing over 80 times. Meanwhile, in a Seminar Day devoted to, “Understanding Today’s Struggle for Racial Civil Rights,”  a working definition of the term “civil rights” is not offered.)
    • The Seminar claims: People of the same race think and feel the same way about most or all things.
    • The Seminar claims:  Disparities between races are de facto evidence of “systemic racism.” Not, for instance, government policies that confine poor children to failing inner city schools, devastate black families, and encourage crime and dependence.
    • The Seminar claims: “Systemic racism” should be the root of all discussions.

    The “Tolerant” Strike Back at the “Haters”

    Things really hit the fan when program critics put up their own site that allows incoming comments.  Here are a few of the emails received. Senders included their names with their emails, unafraid to say these things to their neighbors, though I’ve deleted names here:

    • “Go fuck yourselves. Honestly, what you are trying to do is pathetic. ‘Diversity programs don’t work’? What’s your alternative, segregation?” That’s from a New Trier grad who says she didn’t understand race until she went to college at [a private, elite liberal arts school whose name I’ll withhold]:
    • From a New Trier Parent: “The district would not need to spend money on this day if the majority of parents, like yourselves, were not racial assholes.”
    • From a New Trier student: “Get your fucking KKK looking asses back to your house and shut up.”

    I guess comments like that are quite reasonable if you accept the central teaching of the seminar, which is that we’re all racists. Plenty more like that from hatred’s enemies can be found on this link. I certainly would not be surprised if equally nasty things are being sent by some critics of the seminar to its defenders, but that’s really the point: Is this seminar promoting understanding and rational discussion?

    The School’s Response

    New Trier’s administration has been mostly silent, except for release recently of this FAQ and and some short comments to the press.

    First, the school’s Superintendent defends the program by saying, “I have had well over 300 phone calls, emails, and letters of support saying ‘Don’t change it, it looks fabulous,'” she said. “The direct communication we’ve had has been far more in support than in opposition. In fact, I’ve never seen this kind of outpouring of support on an issue in my life as an educator.”

    We pay her $419,000 and God-knows-what pension to set educational content by counting popularity beans?  Would she exclude the liberal voices (which are properly included) if she were in some school district in the South where those views might be overwhelmingly unpopular? She offers no reason for refusing to add other perspectives.

    And her method of counting is faulty because of another horrible problem, as to which she’s seemingly blind: Critics of the program are stifled by fear of the controversy and retribution, so she’s not hearing from them. We’ve heard from any number of program critics who won’t dare say or do anything. One active member of our opposition, who has a business in the community, asked us to be extremely careful not to mention either her name or business, fearing the consequences. Some even fear retribution by very progressive teachers against their kids.

    New Trier’s Superintendent also didn’t mention that, for a similar program last year, about 40% of New Trier kids did not attend.

    Those kids may be smarter than the adults on this. While some are vocally on one side or another, plenty see through it. I asked one how he thinks his fellow students view the program. He thought just under half shrug it off as “more SJW [social justice warrior] nonsense.” He added that he thought many of the liberals who like the program think it’s unbalanced.

    In the FAQ, the school emphasizes that the program is not political. Oh, please. It’s straight out of the playbook used by countless Democrats in the last election cycle. It’s about as “not political” as the poster on the right, which went up in the school on Inauguration Day. You decide if that, and the seminar, are political.

    Illegal?

    Politicking in schools has legal limits. New Trier also has a written policy requiring that discussion of controversial topics “present a balanced view.” I don’t know whether New Trier crossed the legal line, but a separate group is researching that now and will file a lawsuit if they conclude it has.

    Cost

    Operating costs per day when school is in session is slightly over $533,000, according to responses in a FOIA request from New Trier. The school’s FAQ adds that the seminar has an additional budget of $30,000.

    At a recent New Trier school board meeting, in defending the program, an Assistant Superintendent of Student Services said the preparation was a “huge effort” and “exhausting.”

    *  *  *

    It would be easy to rattle off a list of topics that would make New Trier’s seminar day more balanced and genuinely educational. Moderates and conservatives might not agree on that list, but this controversy could easily have been avoided with even a lazy attempt. I’ll suggest just one topic that would have helped, the virtue of which should now be evident to all:

    How identity politics have ripped America apart and undermined the quest for racial harmony.

    UPDATED 2/6/17 to increase the compensation paid to the New Trier Superintendant from $315,000 to $419,000. For further information on compensation and political nature of the rest of the school’s administration, see this article.

    *Mark Glennon is founder of Wirepoints. Opinions expressed are his own.

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Today’s News 7th February 2017

  • Reality Check: "Immigration Can Never Be An Effective Way To Deal With The Suffering People Of The World"

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    The most oft cited reason by opponents of President Trump’s immigration policies for why America should open its borders to the millions of impoverished and persecuted individuals around the world often center around humanitarian reasons. As a rich country with plenty of land mass, we should be able to take in anyone and everyone who may be in need, right?

    While that notion, like Marx-Engels’ ideas for taking from those who have the ability and giving to those who need, may seem great on paper, successfully implementing such policies in the real world is starkly different.

    According to Census Bureau statistics, some 1.3 million foreign-born individuals legally immigrated to the United States in 2014. That figure doesn’t include the nearly one million immigrants that enter the country illegally each year. Those who support open border immigration have said that we need to take in even more people.

    But according to journalist Roy Beck, taking in one million people per year makes almost no difference in the grand scheme of things because for every million we bring into the United States, another 80 million people yearly are born into countries with extreme levels of poverty, violence or war. According to Beck, even opening our borders to five million more people per year would do nothing to stem the the real problems.

    In what is one of the most viewed immigration policy videos on the internet from Numbers USA, Beck ingeniously utilizes gumballs to demonstrate why open borders simply will not work. As well, he provides a seemingly novel solution that has for decades fallen on deaf ears:

    We never get ahead of what’s happening in these countries… Don’t you see? Immigration can never be an effective or significant way to deal with the suffering people of the world… they have to be helped where they live…

     

    99.9% of them will never be able to immigrate to a rich country… there is no hope for that… they have to bloom where they’re planted… the only place that 99.9% of these people can be helped is where they live… let’s help them there.

    In short: taking in millions of immigrants doesn’t even make a dent.

    So for those utilizing immigration as justification for violent protests and kinetic civil war, or for those who follow such narratives blindly based strictly on emotions that are devoid of any rational thought, we encourage you to consider the reality of bringing in millions of immigrants from impoverished countries.

    And don’t just consider the non-effect of such policies as they relate to the global humanitarian situation, but consider the implications this has on America’s resources, as well as our citizens, who will be burdened with heavy taxation to cover the costs.

    Even if we went by the most radical proposals in Washington, which are to actually double our immigration to two million year… which would totally overwhelm our physical, natural and social infrastructures, we couldn’t even make a visible difference.

  • Once Feared, The "Tiger Cubs" Have Become Wall Street's Prey

    Things are rapidly changing for the hedge fund world, and not just in terms of chronically underperforming the S&P, which as the following chart from Goldman demonstrates, they have on 10 of the past 14 years, leading to relentless redemptions…

    … but also in terms of crushing once pristine, seemingly untouchable reputations. Case in point: famed stock picker Julian Robertson and his Tiger Cub”proteges have ruled the Wall Street jungle for decades. After a down 2016, their reign is being challenged.

    As the WSJ reports, for the year, hedge-fund losses at Tiger Global Management LLC were roughly $900 million from a 15.3% loss. Lee Ainslie’s $11 billion Maverick Capital Ltd. was down more than 10% in its flagship fund. Andreas Halvorsen’s $30 billion Viking Global Investors LP and Stephen Mandel Jr.’s Lone Pine Capital LLC were down 4% and 2% respectively in their main funds, while Coatue Management LLC was up 2%. They all badly underperformed the broader market which returned 12%, and is not only actively managed by central banks, but does not request “2 and 20” to jump aboard for the ride, nor does it have minimum capital requirements.

    These “Tiger Cubs,” a generation of hedge-fund firms founded by traders who once worked for Mr. Robertson at his Tiger Management, are among the wave of stock hedge funds that fared poorly in 2016.

    The MSCI AC World index gained 8.5% for last year excluding December, but equities hedge funds captured just 20% of that return, according to Morgan Stanley. That relative return was the second worst since the 2008 financial crisis.

    The chronic bleeding should not come as a surprise to regular readers: ever since 2010 we warned that in the “new paranorma”, where fundamentals have zero impact on asset prices, and only central bank balance sheets matter, those who rely on convential financial metrics to help them invest or, worse, actively short in hopes of a stock – or market – crash, will be lost. Sure enough, those most dependent on fundamentals, or “bottom-up” stock pickers like the Tiger Cubs, were among the hardest hit. These types of managers make their investment decisions by talking to management teams and poring over corporate filings, among other research.

    Sadly, almost none of tha matters in a world of pervasively cheap credit which permits zombie companies to continue their existence indefinitely, regardless of growth, balance sheet, or cash fow constraints.

    This is how the WSJ explains the death of fundamental analysis-based investing.

    last year’s markets were difficult for Tiger Cubs and other bottom-up investors because companies often didn’t rise or fall on their individual fundamentals. Instead, entire sectors of the market traded in lockstep, such as when energy companies rallied during the first half and when financial stocks surged after the presidential election of Donald Trump on expectations of economic growth. Stocks that traditionally were more expensive and had strong growth prospects also sold off, another development that surprised some of these managers. Those stocks had driven funds’ gains last year.

    Thank the pervasive shift to passive investing and ETFs that have made thousands of stocks trade as one; also thank HFTs whose only goal these days is to stop out investors as “max pain” levels, and finally thank central banks that the market hasn’t made any sense in years.

    Still, some refuse to give up the faith: “It’s too early to say that fundamental stock picking is dead; it’s hard to envision a world with only robots and passive investors,” said Greg Dowling of Cincinnati-based Fund Evaluation Group, which advises on roughly $60 billion of client money. But “opportunities may be more episodic.”

    Robertson, who declined to comment through a spokesman, started Tiger in 1980, and the firm went on to become one of the most successful private investment funds in the world, managing more than $22 billion at its peak. He still claims among the best long-term track records in the investment world, at about 25% a year. It all ended in 2000 when the firm returned client money after losses and investor defections.

    In retrospect, it is far better that Julian is not active in today’s market, which is a farcical, grotesque version of what he was familiar with in his heyday. Instead, Tiger has become a “seeder” which backs smaller hedge funds, while Robertson’s former employees collectively manage more than $100 billion in some of the industry’s biggest funds. Alas, they also frequently show up in the same trades, a result some of them ascribe to their shared investment philosophy. The resulting hedge fund hotels usually end up in flames once someone yells “fire” and a stampede for the illiquid exists begins.

    There is some hope in the new years. Since the election, some traders have predicted the environment for stock picking would improve, as a result of a plunge in cross-equity correlations and a surge in dispersion. Trump’s plan for deficit spending, tough talk on trade and taxes and lighter regulation for banks, pharmaceutical companies and other industries should also mean increased volatility (if not yet). They say that volatility, plus the waning of central banks’ global bond-buying programs, could break the quiet markets traders have complained about in recent years. Some faint glimmers of hope: Coatue, Maverick, Tiger Global and Viking gained in January, with Tiger Global up 5.5%. All those gains may evaporate overnight following another Amazon, Netflix or Valeant implosion.

    So the “Tiger Cubs” are taking steps to lock in profits.

    Mandel of Lone Pine has become much more focused on whether the positions that the $28 billion firm holds are included in the holdings of ETFs. Lone Pine began collecting data on these issues more systematically last year. That did not help the bloodletting however, and investors redeemed 10% of their money from Lone Pine last year, a higher percentage than in past years.

    Viking hired from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.Samer Takriti, “an experienced risk quant and Ph.D.,” to help the firm increase its awareness of forces that can affect its portfolio, Viking said in its year-end letter.

    Meanwhile, Maverick, which rolled out a quant effort in 2006 to inform its investment process, is doubling down on losing bets from last year.

    “The large majority of investments that were costly will prove to be mistakes of timing rather than judgment,” Mr. Ainslie wrote in his year-end letter dated Jan. 17. Which, of course, is what everyone who throws good money after bad says, hoping for a rebound.

    Will 2017 prove to be “different this time” for the hedge fund world in general, and the vaunted Tiger Cubs in particular? Check in in just under 11, soon to be very volatile months for the answer.

  • 5 Signs We're Going To War

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    Is it possible that not everything is as it seems?

    While the majority of America is being distracted by shiny things and manipulated into civil unrest over identity politics, Melissa Dykes of The Daily Sheeple warns that an unprecedented push for war is underway.

    It’s pretty clear that we’re being taken to war… A plan implemented by George W. Bush after 9/11… continued under Obama… and now kicked up a notch by our new President, Donald Trump. 

    Watch:

  • ALERT: Largest US Forex Broker FXCM Shut Down and Permanently Banned from NFA

    It comes as no surprise to many, that the US biggest and baddest Forex broker, FXCM, has been shut down by regulators, and permanently banned from future membership, including the firm itself and several APs, including Dror “Drew” Niv, its founder, says the NFA’s website.  We talk about this a lot in our book Splitting Pennies- for those of you who want to understand more about what’s going on here – pickup a copy on Amazon.

    FXCM simply could not run an honest business.  It’s important for those not in FX to understand that, just because FXCM is a fraud, it doesn’t mean that FX is a fraud.  Simply, that FX was a fertile ground for ponzi scammers, criminals, banksters, and the lowest level of white collar criminals.  WHY is that you ask?  Because FX is so greatly misunderstood, it’s possible for those with slightly higher IQ’s than the average investing public to pull the wool over the eyes of the retail customer, and in FXCM’s case – the regulators too.  Well, thanks to the NFA for bringing this case to a close, I’m sure all the victims who have lost money due to FXCMs petty scams and tricks will be comforted to hear the news that at least for our lifetime, they will not be able to continue their games.  

    And, because of the lack of understanding – legitimate more high brow entities simply don’t want to touch it, and especially retail, it’s like getting their hands dirty.  FXCM has shown the world how NOT to run an FX business.  FXCM’s collapse is expected, by those in the know.  But the good news, at least for customers, your accounts will be safely transferred to Gain Capital.

    Here’s a snapshot of the key info from the complaint and decision filed by the NFA:

    Here’s how FXCM’s petty scam worked.  So, around the time of 2006 – 2008 the dealing desk model of trading against customers was getting old.  Too many complaints, and too much competition.  Finally, FXCM settled a lawsuit for something a genius lawyer labelled ‘assymetric price slippage’ which is high paid lawyer lingo for screwing the customer.  The only thing assymetric about the slippage was the ass, that is, customers always took it in.  You think that this is tongue in cheek humor, but this is how FXCM ran their business.  The scam sham company they setup to trick regulators they sarcastically named “Effex” a full phonetic spelling of FX.  If FXCM was really professional they could have resorted to naming it something regal, such as The Sapiano Organization or Wellington Capital Group, LP.  – the name use “Effex” shows how petty and sloppy FXCM’s management is.  I mean, some people on Wall St. have that sense of humor.  But, customers don’t think it’s so funny when they’re losing money on positive trades.  FX is difficult enough – and the fact that FXCM would resort to petty tricks like reversing positive trades in your account weeks after the profit was booked, it made for many angry customers.  Yes, they did that.  And worse, much worse.  

    Anyway, so at some point FXCM knew they couldn’t perpetuate their dealing desk operations (trading against the customer) at least in plain sight, which they were.  So what they did, they created a model that was truely, STP, or sending orders directly to the banks.  However, what they did – in agreement with the banks, FXCM’s order flow was ‘tagged’ electronically, and sent straight into the new fancy dealing machine that was now a super robot on steroids, waiting to take a look at your order and hold it, change it, reject it, slip it – all in the name of another company – NOT FXCM (this is really important to understand how this scam works).  So, FXCM could state, that they were not trading against the customer.  But they were sending their orders mostly to a firm that did trade against the orders, “Effex” – and this company was not only owned and controlled by FXCM, it was in their office, run by an ex-employee, on FXCM’s computer network, using the same IT.   To see a legal perspective of how FXCM’s .. excuse me.. “Effex” dealing operations worked, take a look at this statement from the complaint:

     

    “Hold Timer” is the key here.  Traders that use FXCM’s “Trading Station” platform know the various messages when you go to buy, such as ‘please wait’ and ‘order processing’ and so on.  What’s happening during that time, they are waiting for a number of things to happen; the market to move in their favor (and in this case, they’ll fill your order at the worst possible price, like the moment you clicked) – or another customer to place the opposite order, where they could capture a huge spread, or for them to receive a huge discounted order on the wholesale market, and fill your order at a slipped price (but extremely profitable for FXCM).  It’s true – this is a money making machine!  But, like the Casinos, it was FXCM getting rich, not the customer.

    The full complaint makes for great reading for those who want to understand – from a compliance and legal perspective – how the inner workings of a dealing desk broker work.  Note several key points that 1) FXCM was not a dealing desk broker (no broker will admit to using this model, they are all STP.. yeah right)  2) FXCM had their head up their rear so far they didn’t have an exit plan – they thought they were above scrutiny, because NFA was in their pocket.  Well, maybe they were – maybe this is all because of Trump!  Did I write that, or it just materialized on the screen – …

    In any event, traders should at least say “Thank You” to the NFA for finally bringing down this huge petty scam, that we can start to rebuild from the rubble, and build a real FX business, based on profitable FX alpha generating strategies, sophistocated liquidity algorithms that can manage risk in a complex market, and computing power.  

    To contrast that statement, FXCM had an employee policy, to hire good sounding NYU grads that didn’t know about finance and were good on the phones.  FXCM invested zero in R&D.  Their IT was horrendous – except of course, their dealing software, which they invested millions in.

    Thank you to all the participants of this case, to the NFA, to Trump for creating a pro-business environment, thank you to the clients who started the class-action against FXCM that led to the ass-slippage case; now let’s create a REAL FX market!

    To learn more about the inner workings of FX and how to survive, checkout FC Trading Academy.  To read a good book on the topic of FX – checkout Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex.

  • Virginia University Publishes "LGBTQQIAAPP Terminology Guide" To Help Snowflakes Determine Their Gender

    The Virginia Commonwealth University’s Office of Multicultural Affairs has decided to publish a very helpful LBGTQQIAAPP Terminology Guide to assist their confused snowflakes with the very complicated task of determining their own gender.  While the guide may seem fairly thorough, VCU notes that gender “language is constantly evolving, and these definitions are not by any means comprehensive” before warning that “terms of self-identification should not be used to label others without their consent.”

    Luckily, the terminology guide even has some very easy to understand illustrations to help students debunk the lifelong, evil myth that gender is somehow binary…

    LGBTQIA

     

    Here are some of the definitions that we found particularly helpful and we sincerely hope that our readers will take this opportunity to read, learn and reflect on their lives of “Cis Privilege.”  And for those of you still living in the dark ages, Cisgendered refers to the 99.7% of the population where “a person’s gender identity, gender expression, and biological sex” all miraculously align.

    Biological Sex/ Natal Sex/ Birth Sex/ Sex: The medical term used for the identification of male, female, or intersex sex i.e. chromosomes, gonads, and/or genitalia

     

    Cisgender/ Cis/ Gender Normative/ Gender Straight: a person who has a normative gender presentation, when a person’s gender identity, gender expression, and biological sex align. A person who is not transgender.

     

    Cisgender Privilege/ Cis privilege: The societal assumption and norm that all people are cisgender. There are basic civil rights and social privileges that a cisgendered person automatically receives that are systematically denied to transgender persons, simply because of their gender identity/ gender presentation

     

    Demisexual: a person who is not immediately sexually attracted to other people. A person who’s sexual attraction to another person develops after developing a relationship (not necessarily romantic). Often considered within the asexuality spectrum

     

    Gender Confirmation surgery: any surgery to make a person’s outward appearance more closely align with their gender rather than biological sex, also known as gender reassignment surgery, many have transitioned to Gender Confirmation Surgery as it utilizes more positive language.

     

    Heterosexual Privilege/Heteronormativity: The societal assumption and norm that all people are heterosexual. There are basic civil rights and social privileges that a heterosexual person automatically receives that are systematically denied to queer persons, simply because of their sexual orientation.

    Of course, while VCU asserts that there are “basic civil rights and social privileges” afforded to “cisgendered” people that are constantly denied other people based on their “gender identity/ gender presentation”, the university fails to define exactly which privileges to which they are referring.

    LGBTQIA

     

    For those of you looking for even more enlightenment on this very important topic plaguing roughly 0.3% of the population, please see the complete LBGTQQIAAPP Terminology Guide below:

  • Debt-pocalypse Beckons As US Consumer Bankruptcies Do Something They Haven't Done In 7 Years

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    When debt grows much faster than GDP for an extended period of time, it is inevitable that a good portion of that debt will start to go bad at some point.  We witnessed a perfect example of this in 2008, and now it is starting to happen again.  Commercial bankruptcies have been rising on a year-over-year basis since late 2015, and this is something that I have written about previously, but now consumer bankruptcies are also increasing.  In fact, we have just witnessed U.S. consumer bankruptcies do something that they haven’t done in nearly 7 years.  The following comes from Wolf Richter

    US bankruptcy filings by consumers rose 5.4% in January, compared to January last year, to 52,421 according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. In December, they’d already risen 4.5% from a year earlier. This was the first time that consumer bankruptcies increased back-to-back since 2010.

     

     

    However, business bankruptcies began to surge in November 2015 and continued surging on a year-over-year basis in 2016, to reach a full-year total of 37,823 filings, up 26% from the prior year and the highest since 2014.

    Of course consumer bankruptcies are still much lower than they were during the last financial crisis, but what this could mean is that we have reached a turning point.

    For years, the Federal Reserve has been encouraging reckless borrowing and spending by pushing interest rates to ultra-low levels.  Unfortunately, this created an absolutely enormous debt bubble, and now that debt bubble is beginning to burst.  Here is more from Wolf Richter

    The dizzying borrowing by consumers and businesses that the Fed with its ultra-low interest rates and in its infinite wisdom has purposefully encouraged to fuel economic growth, if any, and to inflate asset prices, has caused debt to pile up. That debt is now eating up cash flows needed for other things, and this is causing pressures, just when interest rates have begun to rise, which will make refinancing this debt more expensive and, for a rising number of consumers and businesses, impossible. And so, the legacy of this binge will haunt the economy – and creditors – for years to come.

    Despite all of the economic optimism that is out there right now, the truth is that U.S. consumers are tapped out.

    If the U.S. economy truly was doing great, major retailers would not be closing hundreds of stores.  Sears, Macy’s and a whole host of other big retailers are closing stores because those stores are losing money.  It truly is a “retail apocalypse“, and this trend is not going to turn around until U.S. consumers start to become healthier financially.

    We also see signs of trouble in the auto sales numbers.  Compared to 2016, sales were way down in January this year

    Compared to January last year, car sales collapsed for all three US automakers, and the largest Japanese automakers didn’t do much better:

    • GM -21.1%
    • Ford -17.5%
    • Fiat Chrysler -35.8%
    • Toyota -19.9%
    • Honda -10.7%
    • Nissan -9.0%

    For all automakers combined, car sales sagged 12.2% from a year ago.

    A lot of attention is given to our 20 trillion dollar national debt, and rightly so, but a similar amount of attention should be paid to the fact that U.S. households are collectively more than 12 trillion dollars in debt.

    About two-thirds of the nation is essentially living paycheck to paycheck.  Most families really struggle to pay the bills from month to month, and all it would take is a major event such as a job loss or a significant illness to plunge them into financial oblivion.

    In America today we are told that the secret to success is a college education, but most young Americans have to go deep into debt to afford such an education.

    As a result, most college graduates start out life in the “real world” with a mountain of debt.  And since many of them never find the “good jobs” that they were promised, repayment of that debt becomes a very big issue.  In fact, the Wall Street Journal has discovered that student loan repayment rates are much worse than we were being told…

    Last Friday, the Education Department released a memo saying that it had overstated student loan repayment rates at most colleges and trade schools and provided updated numbers.

     

    When The Wall Street Journal analyzed the new numbers, the data revealed that the Department previously had inflated the repayment rates for 99.8% of all colleges and trade schools in the country.

     

    The new analysis shows that at more than 1,000 colleges and trade schools, or about a quarter of the total, at least half the students had defaulted or failed to pay down at least $1 on their debt within seven years.

    If you do find yourself deep in debt, a lot of families have found success by following a plan that was pioneered by author Dave Ramsey.  His “Debt Snowball Plan” really works, but you have to be committed to it.

    Getting out of debt can be tremendously freeing.  So many people spend so many sleepless nights consumed by financial stress, but it doesn’t have to be that way.

    Most of us have had to go into debt for some reason or another, and not all debt is bad debt.  For example, very few of us would be able to own a home without getting a mortgage, and usually mortgages come with very low interest rates these days.

    But other forms of debt (such as credit card debt or payday loans) can be financially crippling.  When it comes to eliminating debt, it is often a really good idea to start with the most toxic forms of debt first.

    It has been said that the borrower is the servant of the lender, and you don’t want to spend the best years of your life making somebody else rich.

    Whether economic conditions turn out to be good or bad in 2017, the truth is that each one of us should be trying to do what we can to get out of debt.

    Unfortunately, a lot of people never seem to learn from the past, and I have a feeling that both consumer and commercial bankruptcies will continue to rise throughout the rest of this year.

  • Google Emerges As Financial Sponsor Behind Tech Giants' Anti-Trump Crusade

    Earlier today, we explained why billionaire Democrat, and Clinton supporter, George Soros is the likely source of funding behind the rapidly spreading  – and costly – Trump “Muslim Ban” lawsuits.

    Moments ago, we found the other “source of funds” missing link in the ongoing anti-Trump executive order campaign. As Bloomberg reports, the company footing bill for the legal brief signed by more than 120 mostly tech companies that oppose President Donald Trump’s executive order on immigration, is none other than the Company which offered Hillary Clinton its “strategic plan” to help Democrats win the election, and track voters, and which hired former Clinton Foundation CEO, Eric Braverman: Google (technically, its parent company Alphabet).

    Eventually, the funding – which should be a nominal matter for most of the tech giants who are on a crusade to keep cheap H1-B workers – may end up being distributed: other companies have offered to fund a share of the fee, Bloomberg writes, and Alphabet, which coordinated the effort, plans to accept the offers. However, for now  it’s only Alphabet who is paying Washington, D.C.-based law firm Mayer Brown LLP to handle the friend-of-the-court brief.

    The rest of the story is familiar, as per our earlier report, only instead of only 97 companies, the list has since grown to 128.

    The tech companies emphasized the economic and social contribution made by immigrants in their arguments filed Sunday in the U.S. Court of Appeals in San Francisco. The companies support a lawsuit by the states of Washington and Minnesota seeking to stop Trump’s executive order. Apple Inc., Airbnb Inc., Facebook Inc., Microsoft Corp., Tesla Inc. Intel Corp., Lyft Inc., Netflix Inc., Snap Inc. and Uber Technologies Inc. are among the technology companies that participated. Businesses beyond the tech industry who signed on include Levi Strauss & Co. and yogurt maker Chobani.

    “Immigrants make many of the Nation’s greatest discoveries, and create some of the country’s most innovative and iconic companies,” the brief states. “America has long recognized the importance of protecting ourselves against those who would do us harm. But it has done so while maintaining our fundamental commitment to welcoming immigrants—through increased background checks and other controls on people seeking to enter our country.”

    So far Trump has been uncharacteristically quiet in his interaction with the rebellious tech giants, whom he invted one month ago to the Trump Tower as president-elect to lay the ground rules for interaction. Frankly, it would be a surprise, if he let the growing rumble of Silicon Valley discontent continue without at least opining about it on twitter at least once. For now, however, Trump is more focused on making the choice for America clear: either you are with my executive order, or if there is a terrorist attack, blame the judicial system as he once again tweeted just moments ago.

  • Furious California Leaders Slam "Cruel, Unconstitutional" Trump Over Threat To Pull Federal Money

    In a narrative more befitting of kindergarten, and certainly not grown adults (politicans are exempt), one day after from Trump warned he would defund California if the state passed a bill to make itself a de facto “sanctuary state”, saying the state was “out of control”, furious state leaders have responded that, drumroll, they are not “out of control.”

    Hoping to make their case stron, state politicans pointed at their balanced budget and high jobs numbers in the latest dustup between the populist Republican and the progressive state. Quoted by Reuters, the state’s top Democrats called Trump “cruel” and his proposals unconstitutional, after the businessman-turned-politician threatened to withhold federal funding from the most populous U.S. state if lawmakers passed a bill protecting undocumented immigrants. “President Trump’s threat to weaponize federal funding is not only unconstitutional but emblematic of the cruelty he seeks to impose on our most vulnerable communities,” state Senate Pro Tem Kevin de Leon, a Democrat from Los Angeles, said in a statement on Monday.

    The latest war of words between Trump and Democratic leaders in California, where voters chose his opponent, Hillary Clinton, two-to-one in November’s election, began Sunday, in an interview between Trump and Fox News host Bill O’Reilly. During the interview, O’Reilly asked Trump about a bill in the state legislature, authored by de Leon, to ban law enforcement agencies in the state from cooperating with immigration officials in most circumstances. Cities who have enacted similar bans are known as sanctuary cities, and de Leon’s bill, if passed and signed into law by Democratic Governor Jerry Brown, would effectively extend such rules to the entire state.

    “I think it’s ridiculous. Sanctuary cities, as you know, I’m very much opposed to sanctuary cities. They breed crime, there’s a lot of problems,” Trump said.

    “If we have to, we’ll defund,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News host Bill O’Reilly before the Super Bowl. “We give tremendous amounts of money to California, California in many ways is out of control, as you know.”

    Trump told O’Reilly that he didn’t want to defund a state or a city and would like to give them “the money they need to properly operate.” But the president added that “if they’re going to have sanctuary cities, we may have to do that. Certainly that would be a weapon.”

    California’s mostly democratic leadership was not amused. State Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, an L.A.-area Democrat, said the state has the most manufacturing jobs in the nation, and produces a quarter of the country’s food. “If this is what Donald Trump thinks is ‘out of control,’ I’d suggest other states should be more like us,” Rendon said.

    Sunday’s shot across the bow of Sacramento followed a similar threat last weak, when Trump threatened to withhold federal funding from the University of California at Berkeley, where violent rioting led to the cancellation of a speech by famous “alt-right” winger Milo Yiannopoulos.

    Experts have said it would be difficult for the President to withhold funds from either the university or the state. Court rulings have limited the power of the president to punish states by withholding funds, and most appropriations come from the Congress and not the executive branch. Then again, this is Trump we are talking about, and while it may ultimately indeed prove impossible, should this particular animosity between Trump and the state continue, Trump will certainly try…

    Ultimately, California’s fate may be in its own hands, and in its own territory.

    As a reminder, a proposal for California to break away from the United States has been submitted to the Secretary of State’s Office in the state capital. If it qualifies, it could trigger a vote on whether the most populous US state should become a separate nation. The group behind the proposal, Yes California Independence Campaign, was cleared on Thursday by Californian Secretary of State Alex Padilla to begin the bid to collect some 600,000 voter signatures required to put the ambitious plan on the ballot, AP reported.

    The initiative would ask voters to repeal part of the state constitution that declares California an “inseparable part of the United States of America.” Being a US state is “no longer serving California’s best interests,” the movement claims.

    “Not only is California forced to subsidize this massive military budget with our taxes, but Californians are sent off to fight in wars that often do more to perpetuate terrorism than to abate it. The only reason terrorists might want to attack us is because we are part of the United States and are guilty by association. Not being a part of that country will make California a less likely target of retaliation by its enemies,” the campaign argues, among other things.

    “America already hates California, and America votes on emotions,” Marcus Evans, vice-president of Yes California told to the Los Angeles Times. “I think we’d have the votes today if we held it,” he added.

    Since California must submit the valid voter signatures by July 25 to qualify for the November 2018 ballot, it is shaping up to be an especially volatile summer.

  • Which Assets Are Most Likely To Survive The "System Reset"?

    Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    Your skills, knowledge and and social capital will emerge unscathed on the other side of the re-set wormhole. Your financial assets held in centrally controlled institutions will not.

    Longtime correspondent C.A. recently asked a question every American household should be asking: which assets are most likely to survive the "system re-set" that is now inevitable? It's a question of great import because not all assets are equal in terms of survivability in crisis, when the rules change without advance notice.

    If you doubt the inevitability of a system implosion/re-set, please read Is America In A Bubble (And Can It Ever Return To "Normal")? This brief essay presents charts that reveal a sobering economic reality: America is now dependent on multiple asset bubbles never popping–something history suggests is not possible.

    It isn't just a financial re-set that's inevitable–it's a political and social re-set as well. For more on why this is so, please consult my short book Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform.

    The charts below describe the key dynamics driving a system re-set. Earned income (wages) as a share of GDP has been falling for decades: this means labor is receiving a diminishing share of economic growth. Since costs and debt continue rising while incomes are declining or stagnating, this asymmetry eventually leads to insolvency.

    The "fix" for insolvency has been higher debt and debt-based spending–in essence, borrowing from future income to fund more consumption today. But each unit of new debt is generating less economic activity/growth. This is called diminishing returns: eventually the costs of servicing the additional debt exceed the increasingly trivial gains.

    What happens when the bubbles pop, despite massive central bank/state interventions? The entire socio-political/financial system goes through a "system re-set" in which all the fantasy-based valuations, political denials, false promises and fraudulent claims collapse in a heap.

    In a crisis, the privileged Elites will change the rules in a desperate attempt to expropriate the income and wealth of the bottom 99.5% to preserve their own power.

    The trick is to do so in ways that won't spark an immediate political insurrection.

    We can better understand their policy choices by asking: What's easy to expropriate, what's difficult to expropriate?

    Those assets that are easy to expropriate will be expropriated first. Those that are difficult to expropriate are far less likely to be grabbed, due to the high costs of expropriation and the high risks of sparking a political insurrection.

    History suggests the privileged Elites will pursue two basic strategies to expropriate the income and wealth of non-elites:

    1. They will expropriate what is easy to expropriate: financial assets in centralized institutions the state controls: banks, brokerage accounts, insurance policies, etc.

    2. They will use the time-honored "stealth expropriation" methods: inflation and taxes.

    Any "money" held in a centrally controlled institution can be expropriated overnight. The rules will change without warning, so there will be no opportunity to escape the system.

    Direct expropriation takes many forms. Your funds could be "bailed-in" (transferred to the bank). Large currency bills could be declared worthless. IRA and 401K accounts could be transferred into government bonds, to "protect the account owners from risky investments." (Naturally, any expropriation will be presented as "for your own good.")

    Or a new currency could be issued that strips away 90% of the purchasing power of the old currency. It could be a New Dollar, an SDR global currency, or a state-issued cryptocurrency. The point is to strip away 90% of the wealth held in the old currency.

    Indirect "stealth" expropriation has several forms: slow currency devaluation, also known as inflation, or higher taxes and junk fees (not called taxes, but you receive no additional value for the higher fees).

    The end result of these policies is you may receive the $2,000 monthly pension you were promised, but after inflation, currency devaluation and taxes, your real purchasing power is $100 in today's currency.

    So what's difficult to expropriate? I present some answers in my books An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times and Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

    It's impossible to expropriate one's skills, experience and social capital. These are intangible forms of capital and so they cannot be confiscated like gold, currency, land, etc.

    Land and homes are difficult to expropriate for two reasons: private property is the backbone of capitalism and democracy, and the state confiscating private property would very likely spark a political insurrection that would diminish or threaten the power and wealth of the privileged Elites.

    Secondly, it's very costly for the state to maintain the productive output of real property it has confiscated. Guards must be posted, sabotage repaired, and the immense difficulties of coercing a rebellious populace to continue working what they once owned for the benefit of the state and its privileged Elites must be solved and paid for.

    The state can expropriate farms, orchards and workshops for back taxes (or some similar extra-legal methodology), but how do you force people to work these properties productively?

    As a general rule, whatever the super-wealthy own will be protected from expropriation. Private real property is the foundation of the Elites' wealth, and while the land of debt-serfs may well be confiscated for back taxes (the wealthy will buy exemptions from rising taxes), those who own land and buildings free and clear constitute a political force to be reckoned with.

    As I discuss in my book Resistance, Revolution, Liberation: A Model for Positive Change, there's one other asset the state and its ruling Elites cannot expropriate: community.

    The state will also have difficulty confiscating assets that are outside its reach. This explains the propularity of owning assets in other nations, and the debate over cryptocurrencies: will states be able to confiscate all cryptocurrencie at will, or is that technically unfeasible?

    The main takeaway is this: your skills, knowledge and and social capital will emerge unscathed on the other side of the re-set wormhole. Land and real property you own free and clear (no debt) is likely to remain in your possession, as long as you can pay soaring taxes/junk fees during the crisis phase. Your financial assets held in centrally controlled institutions will not make it through unscathed; they are simply too easy for central authorities to expropriate.

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