Today’s News 27th December 2016

  • Racist White Professor Calls For “White Genocide,” Then Blames Everyone Else For Misinterpreting His Racist Tweets

    A Drexel University Political Science professor – who has a book coming out in February – and is a communist, graced the world with his Christmas wish to see an entire race of human beings exterminated. You know, like Hitler. 

     

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    Hilarious, right? Especially if you replace the word “white” with any other race. This warm holiday sentiment comes from the mind of George Ciccariello-Maher, a cultishly liberal academic who’s never existed outside of a university environment, having previously corrupted young minds at U.C. Berkeley and the Venezuelan School of Planning in Caracas. Ciccariello then doubles down on his Christmas Eve banter:

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    To review, this is what he’s talking about:

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    Nice guy. Now, in an attempt to backpedal during an Eichenwaldian moment of clarity liberals get after haphazardly revealing they’re fucking idiots underneath that academic exterior, Ciccariello is lashing out by blaming everyone who was offended for not having “bothered to do their research” in preparation for his satirical tweets.

    drexelsss

    Drexel university has issued a statement:

    responsedrexel

    No word on which wrist Drexel plans to slap, but 4chan anon knows what’s up: 

    drexelres

    1482775181122People like Ciccariello-Maher exist to indoctrinate adult children into a reactionary class of morons who hear a trigger word and start regurgitating information without even moderate possession of the facts. These perpetual winners are are easily manipulated by identity politics which “intellectual” losers like Ciccariello capitalize on. While undeniably atrocious, slavery in America was conducted almost entirely by rich southern democrats – a small percentage of Americans, in the 1800’s. It has been a fucked up institution for thousands of years, and is still happening today in many parts of the world. It’s also been abolished in the USA for over 130 years, and the playing field has been legally leveled for over half a century despite structural racism legislated into society. There are of course vestiges of slavery which affect minorities to this day, none of which should be used as a tool for manipulation to generate guilt or resent – or as a reason to exterminate white people. I wonder if Ciccariello-Maher would issue the same call to genocide for all brown people, since slavery is alive and well in places like Saudi Arabia?

    As long as angry radicalized career academics continue peddling white guilt to impressionable snowflakes – many of whom entered into lifelong debt to fund their own brainwashing, untold millions of basement-dwelling failures to launch will have a perpetual villain to blame for their shitty lives. That is, until the last white person has been exterminated.

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    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • India's Demonetization Debacle Highlights The Dangers Of Monetary Monopoly

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    As longtime readers know, I believe we are at the beginning stages of what will be historical paradigm level change across the planet. We sit on the precipice of the self-destruction of almost all the dominant institutions we’ve been accustomed to throughout our lifetimes. To borrow a bit of played out and painfully clichéd Silicon Valley lingo, everything is on the table for “disruption.”

    Naturally, this doesn’t necessarily mean the paradigm that follows the current one will be materially better, but I am personally optimistic about what will emerge following a period of considerable confusion, hardship and conflict. In order to tilt the scales toward a positive outcome, those of us who wish to usher in a world characterized  by human freedom, decentralization, self-government and kindness, need to recognize the most likely avenues we have to get there. Technology is obviously extremely important, as a recent move by Whisper Systems to thwart censorship demonstrates.

    As Wired reported last week:

    Any subversive software developer knows its app has truly caught on when repressive regimes around the world start to block it. Earlier this week the encryption app Signal, already a favorite within the security and cryptography community, unlocked that achievement. Now, it’s making its countermove in the cat-and-mouse game of online censorship.

     

    On Wednesday, Open Whisper Systems, which created and maintains Signal, announced that it’s added a feature to its Android app that will allow it to sidestep censorship in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, where it was blocked just days ago. Android users can simply update the app to gain unfettered access to the encryption tool, according to Open Whisper Systems founder Moxie Marlinspike, and an iOS version of the update is coming soon.

     

    Signal’s new anti-censorship feature uses a trick called “domain fronting,” Marlinspike explains. A country like Egypt, with only a few small internet service providers tightly controlled by the government, can block any direct request to a service on its blacklist. But clever services can circumvent that censorship by hiding their traffic inside of encrypted connections to a major internet service, like the content delivery networks (CDNs) that host content closer to users to speed up their online experience—or in Signal’s case, Google’s App Engine platform, designed to host apps on Google’s servers.

    It goes without saying how critical technology such as the above, combined with dedicated activists such as Moxie Marlinspike, will be to making the world a better place. Beyond that, we also need to understand what our adversaries will do. I define such adversaries as the defenders of the status quo, who will do whatever it takes to retain power and influence in the face of their increasing irrelevance. As it becomes more and more obvious to people that these legacy institutions have become so corrupt and bureaucratic that they do far more harm than good, their leaders are likely to resort to more and more authoritarian tactics in order to defend their untenable position. This is where we need to see opportunity as opposed to cowering in fear.

    We are on the right side of history, while the old institutions are simply living on borrowed time. We must be smart about how we see the world and understand that Donald Trump is likely to react to such a situation quite similarly to a Barack Obama. Whoever’s in charge of the government will by definition work to preserve the power of government as opposed to the liberty of the citizenry. This goes for pretty much every political leader and government worldwide. As such, we must assume government will lash out in increasingly irrational and authoritarian ways in the coming years, as the old paradigm becomes unglued.

    As I mentioned earlier, when a government reacts in an absurd and harmful way, we need to see this for the opportunity it presents as opposed to becoming overcome with fear concerning its inevitable near-term harm. A perfect example is the recent extremely destructive decision by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to unilaterally scrap old 500 and 1,000 rupee notes, which merely represents a particularly egregious move within a broader push by elitist and status quo bureaucrats across the world to ban cash. As disruptive as this move has been, it also carries with it a significant silver lining. For example, it’s causing us to ask the really big questions we need to be asking.

    As R. Jagannathan wrote earlier today in Swaraja Magazine, where he is the editorial director:

    A philosophical question that economists need to answer after Lehman, zero-interest money, QEs, and demonetisation (in our case) is whether central banks ought to have that kind of monopoly over money.

     

    Most free-market economists would agree that monopolies are bad, but they do not usually challenge the state’s monopoly over violence and law-making or the central banks’ monopoly over the issue and regulation of currency.

     

    Leaving aside the state’s monopoly on some kinds of power, let’s ask whether a central bank’s money monopoly is worthwhile since it does not appear to have delivered the kind of benefits to the world in recent decades which can justify the conferment of a monopoly.

     

    The fundamental reason why we have grown to love (or learned to live with) central banks is that we cannot remember a time when they did not exist. So the argument is better the devil you know…

     

    But consider their track record…

     

    The US Fed could not prevent or even moderate the 1930s depression. It took a world war to rescue the US economy from deflation.

     

    The US government (and the Fed) reneged on their most important commitment – to link the dollar value to gold – in 1971. This link was crucial to getting the world to accept payment in US dollars. But once that got done, the US did not want to honour its commitment since this was costing it a bit. In short, central banks cannot always be trusted.

     

    “Independent” central banks were never able to prevent governments from debasing the currency by resorting to huge fiscal deficits. So they could not maintain the exchange values of their currencies without creating hardships for their people.

     

    Central banks have been particularly bad at predicting when money was too cheap or too expensive – the main job they are supposed to do – and we have seen that in bold relief post-Lehman, and with the ongoing Eurozone crisis and Japan’s never-ending stagflation.

     

    In India, we were happy to assume that for Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan brought inflation down, but this is a story we concocted after noting that the man was talking a lot about inflation. We presumed that what he did must have helped inflation come down, but we can never be sure. But his predecessor D Subbarao spent five years chasing down both inflation and disinflation (pre-2008, post-2008, and post-2011-12) and was considered “behind the curve” on policy. As if one human being can predict the net outcomes from the individual actions of a billion-and-a-quarter people responding to inflation or deflation.

     

    And now we have a new Governor, Urjit Patel, taking the flak for a decision he was only partially involved in – demonetisation.

     

    But the real question to ask of Urjit Patel and the government that appointed him is not whether demonetisation was a good idea or whether it has been implemented badly, but whether either government or the central bank should have had this monopoly power at all?

     

    That Patel and the Modi government are being attacked both by Left and Right for demonetisation leads us to a larger and more basic question: Could demonetisation have happened if the Indian state did not have a monopoly in central banking, and there were several money issuers vying for the citizen’s custom?

     

    The answer is probably no, for it is only monopoly that assures central banks this kind of power. If India had another currency issuer, the RBI could not have demonetised the currency in one go. It would have had to announce a plan, and take the bad money out in stages.

     

    But the central bank’s monopoly is really a consequence of the state’s monopoly on law-making and power. This is why states, despite being at odds with their central banks on the short-term direction of monetary policy, are equally keen to let them retain their money monopoly.

     

    In the US, a private player launched a gold-based currency called e-Gold, but when it grew big enough, the powers-that-be had it wound up. Launched in 1996, e-Gold, founded by Douglas Jackson, allowed account-holders to make cash transfers to other e-Gold account-holders through its website. At its zenith, e-Gold was said to be handling more than $2 billion worth of annual transactions. (Read more about e-Gold here and here).

     

    But governments can’t stand a rival who challenges their own right to mint currency, and so in 2009, e-Gold was shut down, ostensibly because it did not have a licence to transfer money. The Patriot Act, enacted after 9/11, gave the US government powers to do this.

     

    The 21st century will challenge the idea of the state and its monopoly powers, but Step One in that process is whether central banks should have a monopoly on money.

     

    The answer is no. Competition will be good even in the business of creating money and managing its ebbs and flows.

    All of this reminds me of something I wrote recently with regard to the self-implosion of mainstream media in the post, ‘Then We Will Fight in the Shade’ – A Guide to Winning the Media Wars:

    It is when you get desperate, scared and panicky that you make the biggest mistakes, and the legacy media is currently desperate, scared and panicky.  As Napoleon Bonaparte allegedly said:

     

    “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

     

    We mustn’t get in the way of the legacy media’s inevitable self-destruction. Part of this means that we do not self-destruct in the process. We need to recognize that there’s a reason independent, alternative media is winning the battle of ideas in the first place. For all the warts, mistakes and bad actors, the emergence of the internet is indeed the historical equivalent of the invention of the printing press on steroids.

    The same mindset and strategy should be applied to the state as well. One thing I’m relatively certain of, is that as economies continue to decay under the weight of the status quo way of doing things, the incredibly corrupt men and women in charge of our dominant institutions will flail from one destructive, authoritarian action to the next. We must expect this and prepare to respond.

    Technology will do its part by providing the necessary tools to transition from one paradigm to the other, but equally important will be winning the narrative when it comes to the 7 billion people inhabiting the planet. This is where websites such as Liberty Blitzkrieg and others will play an increasingly significant role in pointing out and articulating the harmful, irrational and destructive nature of the status quo response to challenges that arise. In this way, we can be sure to win the battle of ideas, which will be crucial to successfully ushering in a new age of human freedom, creativity, opportunity and progress.

  • Commodity Futures Plunge Following China Growth Downgrade

    Less than a month ago we warned that the Chinese commodity bubble 2.0 was bursting as speculative volume had exploded relative to open interest and exchanges had begun (after unreal surges in prices) to crackdown on the speculation. The carnage continued and over the last few days has bloodbath'd even more as China warns that it will miss its growth targets.

    Spot The Odd One Out…

    • Zinc -22%
    • Iron Ore -20%
    • Steel Rebar -20%
    • China Coking Coal -25%
    • Copper -13%
    • Bitcoin +18%

     

    It appears as China housing bubble pops, commodity bubble pops, and credit-fueled growth bubble pops… there is only one place left for Chinese trend-followers to flee to – Bitcoin.

  • Refugee Admissions Surge 86% YoY As Obama Rushes Arrivals Ahead Of Trump Inauguration

    In the first 84 days of the 2017 fiscal year (October 1, 2016 – December 23, 2016), the Obama administration has accepted 25,584 refugees into the United States, according to data provided by the State Department.  Per Breitbart, compared to the same period in FY2016, that represents an 86% increase year-over-year.  And while we were expecting a large increase in refugee admittances in 2017 (see “Hillbama Administration Plans To Admit At Least 110,000 Refugees In 2017“), the ~30% increase that Secretary John Kerry estimated back in September is looking like a fairly modest increase now compared to actual numbers. 

    And while the new Trump administration will likely slow the rate of the new arrivals after taking office next month, the current Obama run-rate puts us on track to blow through the 20-year record high set back in 1999.

    Refugees by Region

     

    As we’ve noted before, per data from the U.S. State Department, the overwhelming majority of refugees admitted into the U.S. over the past couple of months are coming from Syria, Iraq and Somalia… 

    Refugees by Region

     

    …and being resettled in Texas, California, Arizona and New York.

    Refugees by State

     

     

    Obviously, Trump has been fairly clear about is intention to “suspend immigration from areas in the world where there is proven history of terrorism against U.S.” which likely was a stance that helped him win the presidency in November. 

     

     

    But, Obama doesn’t seem to care about any of that…nothing like completely ignoring the will of the American people to pursue your own agenda.  

  • "Operation Cankles" – Russian Intervention Exposed

    Did the Russians really rig the 2016 US election? The Daily Telegraph's Tim Blair exposes 'the truth' – You bet they did!

    Secret documents recently discovered in a bin behind a Kremlin-district 24-hour cabbage and tobacco store reveal for the first time the devious extent of Russian interference. These plans were decades in the making.

    Read on, as never-before-seen communiques between Russian agents Sergei Potrov and Dimitri Bienko outline the wicked plot – beginning in 1947, on the day of Hillary Clinton’s birth:

    Dearest Dimitri

     

    I am pleased to report that phase one of Operation Cankles is total success! Soviet implantation of stupid American woman resulted in birth today of hefty girl-child destined to be unelectable candidate 70 years from now.

     

    Child is basically just ankles and head, similar to sturdy and hard-working female stock from adored Ilmensky Mountains. In decadent America, nobody will ever vote for such a noble being.

     

    Yours in Soviet solidarity,

    Sergei

    Back in Moscow, Bienko receives the news from his undercover US-based operative with communist glee:

    Dearest Sergei,

     

    You have done very well, comrade! Especially with the implantation. I trust the child has your eyebrow.

     

    We have already begun looking at similar strategies in other western nations. When you are next on leave, ask me to show you plans for Operation Julia. Australia is next to face unforgiving Soviet wrath!

     

    Yours,

    Dimitri

    As the years go by, our pair of dedicated spies continue to monitor Hillary’s progress and other events:

    Dearest Dimitri,

     

    Greetings again from Americas. Heh heh heh! Apologies for chuckles, but am watching hilarious documentary called Honeymooners. Is about domestic violence. Very good.

     

    Am needing laugh because hips in pain from imitating the Elvis Presley. Will send you LP of the Presley once Russia has record players.

     

    Hillary now at school and shunned by corrupt classmates in thrall of military-industrial capitalism. All proceeding exactly according to strategic project timeline.

     

    Yours in everlasting revolution,

    Sergei

    Called away from Operation Cankles for a brief and triumphant mission to Dallas in 1963, Potrov soon returns to his main quest:

    Dearest Dimitri,

     

    My ‘holiday’ in Texas was wonderful, thank you for asking. Not so good for Agent Oswald, however. I will miss him. He could make a fine okroshka soup, which is very rare here. The Americans, they prefer their eggs shelled and cooked. And from birds.

     

    How is this for funny? Hillary ran for president of high school and lost to braggart teen with big crazy hair and grabby hands! Is almost like a practice run or something.

     

    Next step is to find university for her. Wellesley is ideal. More communists than all of Soviet Union, except parents drive Cadillacs (sort of like our ZiL, but wheels stay on).

     

    Yours in earnest progress,

    Sergei

    Occasionally Agent Potrov would vanish from the attention of his Soviet overlords, as this urgent 1967 cable shows:

    Comrade Sergei Potrov,

     

    We have not heard from you since you volunteered to investigate the ‘counterculture movement’ in San Francisco three months ago. We assume that your one message, requesting ‘more bread, man’ to buy ‘reefer and doobies’, was written in a code unknown even to our finest cryptographers.

     

    Also, the message was sent on paper from which several strips had been torn. Have you insufficient funds to purchase cigarettes? Please contact your superiors immediately. And stop playing Creedence on our interspy sonic network. This is not what the Soviet surveillance system is for.

     

    Yours in concern,

    Central Command

    During the mid-70s, the Russians toast a mission-advancing coup:

    It is not to be believed! Hillary is getting married – to a man! You owe me 50 rubles, Dimitri.

     

    The fellow is Bill, called by friends ‘horn dog’, ‘el squeezo’ and ‘the Arkansas assman’. He is very political. All his girlfriends say so. By ‘all his girlfriends’, I mean whole female population of Little Rock. He go through them like great winter purge of traitor generals.

     

    This can only assist our mission. Perhaps this Bill will even make it to the White House, if he can keep it in his pants for long enough (is phrase I pick up here).

     

    Yours in jubilation,

    Sergei

    Even tectonic global changes could not sway Agents Potrov and Bienko from their cause:

    Dearest Sergei,

     

    Alas, our beloved Soviet Union is no more. Gorbachev has ruined everything. Please do not give up on Operation Cankles. It may prove to be the final major accomplishment of our great land and heroic peoples.

     

    In other news, our budget has been slightly trimmed. Suggest you monitor Hillary from American streets, where lucrative sign-holding job will provide cover and help pay rent.

     

    Yours in Glasnost,

    Dimitri

    Finally, on November 8, 2016, Sergei’s long mission comes to a victorious conclusion – on the veteran agent’s 94th birthday:

    Dearest Dimitri,

     

    I know you have been dead ten years already, but I write to you for fondness and memories. Great friend, it is done. All that we have worked for, all that we have planned, all that we have dreamed. Our unelectable candidate was truly unelectable. Even the other patients here in the home did not vote for her. One voted for Eisenhower.

     

    My time is not long, Dimitri. Soon I shall see you again, in the heaven that is a frozen-solid Siberian grave. We will rest in honour. Our work on this earth is complete.

     

    Yours in espionage,

    Sergei

    Satirical Source: The Daily Telegraph

  • As Mystery Of China's Multi-Billionaire Default Deepens, A New "Bond Scare" Emerges

    Last week, in a largely “under the radar” event, one of China’s wealthiest billionaires (if only on paper), Wu Ruilin, chairman of the Guangdong based telecom company Cosun Group, and whose personal fortune of 98.2 billion yuan ($14 billion) makes him wealthier than Baidu founder Robin Li who is ranked 8th on the Hurun Rich List 2016, shocked Chinese bond market watchers when he defaulted on a paltry 100 million yuan ($14 million) in bonds sold to retail investors through an Alibaba-backed online wealth management platform, citing “tight cash flow.”

    Needless to say, many were stunned that a billionaire for whom $14 million is pocket change, blamed “tight cash flow” for defaulting on mom and pop investors. In any case, as South China Morning Post reported, despite the founder’s personal fortune, according to a notice put up by the Guangdong Equity Exchange on Tuesday, two subsidiaries of Cosun Group are each defaulting on seven batches of privately raised bonds they issued in 2014. According to the notice, “the issuer had sent over a notice on December 15, claiming not to be able to make the payments on the bonds on time, due to short-term capital crunch.”

    To be sure, yet another default in a Chinese landscape suddenly littered with bankrupting debt dominoes would have been the end of it, however this morning Reuters added to the mystery when it said that the fate of the defaulted $45 million Chinese corporate bond sold through an Alibaba-backed online wealth management platform was thrown into doubt on Monday, after a bank said letters of guarantee for the bonds were counterfeit.

    Quoted by Reuters, China Guangfa Bank Co Ltd (CGB) said guarantee documents, official seals and personal seals presented by the insurer of the bonds “are all fake” and that it has reported the matter to the police.

    The dispute highlights challenges in China’s loosely regulated online finance industry, where retail investors often buy high-yielding bonds and other assets, expecting them to be “risk-free” due to guarantees provided by various parties.

    As first reported last Wednesday, at the center of the latest dispute are up to 312 million yuan ($45 million) worth of high-yielding bonds issued by southern Chinese phone maker Cosun Group that defaulted this month. The bonds were sold through Zhao Cai Bao, an online platform run by Ant Financial Services Group, the payment affiliate of e-commerce firm Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.

    Ant Financial has asked Zheshang Property and Casualty Insurance Co Ltd, which wrote insurance on the bonds, to repay investors. On Sunday, Zheshang Insurance published two documents on its website that it said were from CGB carrying the bank’s official seals, and that guaranteed Zheshang Insurance policies for the Consun bonds. The letters were issued at CGB’s Huizhou branch in December 2014, when the Cosun bonds were sold, Zheshang Insurance said.

    And yet, suggesting there is a massive landmine hiding just below the surface of China’s bond market, far worse than merely the consequences rising interest rates, on Monday, CGB said the documents were fake and that it had reported the incident to police as “suspected financial fraud.”

    While material misrepresentation of facts in Chinese finance is hardly new, the recent alleged violations usher in a whole new breed of fraud, one which is far less nuanced and far more simpllistic and includes outright forgeries of documents that backstop tens if not hundreds of billions in debt. The Cosun dispute follows similar instances of financial fraud this year including forged bond agreements that led to brokerage Sealand Securities sharing potential losses of up to $2.4 billion. In May, the government advised banks to be vigilant after several cases of bill fraud.

    Ant Financial on Tuesday said Zheshang Insurance “hasn’t any reason to refuse repayment” which it was obliged to do “within three days” of default.

    Making matters worse, the fraud has taken place in the context of a bond default that, according to an Ant Financial spokeswoman cited by Reuters, was a “a one in billions incident” on the platform.

    Incidentally, Cosun’s bond issuance totals 1 billion yuan, according to Zheshang Insurance. The insurer’s total registered capital is 1.5 billion yuan.

    Should more such “one in billions incidents” emerge, Chinese bond investors – already freaked out by the recent record plunge in Chinese govt bond futures, soaring overnight funding rates, and fears over Fed rate hikes – will rush for the exits just as China’s housing bubble is also popping as reported yesterday, leading to a rerun of the US 2006/2007 dual bursting of the housing/credit bubbles, only this time instead of an $8 trillion financial system, the world will have to backstop China… whose banking system at last check had over $30 trillion in liabilities.

    Incidentally, we wonder if now that China’s bond insurers are also under the spotlight, if that means China’s very own MBIA/Ambac moments is imminent, as billions in bond insurance contracts are deemed “fake” by the insurers who would rather not pay up on what is set to be an avalanche of defaults.

    * * *

    Finally, for those interested in what Bloomberg last week dubbed the “latest China Finance Scare”, namely outright forgeries in various debt products, mostly focusing on Entrusted Bonds, here is a useful primer courtesy of BBG:

    There’s another Chinese financial practice that’s prompting high-decibel warnings. So-called entrusted bond holdings are a way for financial institutions to skirt rules on using borrowed money to invest in bonds. How? By getting a third party to buy the bonds and agreeing to purchase them at a later date. What could possibly go wrong? How about the worst rout in China’s bond market in a decade. That’s left regulators concerned about the prospect of investors failing to make good on such arrangements, estimated to involve at least $144 billion of bonds.

    1. Why entrust us with this news only now?

    Concerns about entrusted bond holdings have worsened the tumble in the debt market. Last week, Caixin cited market rumors when it reported a brokerage called Sealand Securities Co. had refused to take over bonds held by a counterparty. That got investors worried. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. then said in a note, citing media reports it didn’t identify, that the entrusted holding agreement may have been tied to alleged fraud by ex-staff. Sealand cleared the air when it said it would in fact fulfill the bond contracts that had been stamped with a forged seal. The whole incident was enough to frighten an already jittery market.

    2. So why do investors use entrusted holding agreements?

    Brokerages and other institutional investors ask counterparties to buy bonds from them when they need to circumvent internal rules on note holdings and leverage, according to Xu Hanfei, a bond analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co. Or they can simply have third parties buy the notes directly from the market. The practice boosts leverage by effectively giving the financial institutions loans: As brokerages and institutional investors don’t carry the bonds on their books, they can use the funds freed up on paper to purchase more bonds, which can then be rolled into more such agreements. “Non-bank financial institutions, which emphasize returns, have more motivation to amplify leverage through entrusted holdings,” said Li Liuyang, a market analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Shanghai.

    3. How widespread is the practice?

    Outstanding entrusted holdings are “in the trillions of yuan,” according to Guotai Junan’s Xu. That estimate is based on the bond holdings of the brokerages and smaller banks that are major participants in such transactions. That means the amount of money tied up in such deals is at least 5 percent of the 21 trillion yuan ($3 trillion) of outstanding corporate notes in China, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    4. What broader risks does it pose to China’s financial markets?

    A default in an entrusted holding could turn what otherwise might have been a problem with one company’s liquidity into a broader credit event, given that multiple parties may be involved, according to Li at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. Li says “everyone is worried about similar situations in their transactions with non-bank financial institutions.” OCBC said that things had got so bad that banks were reluctant to lend to non-bank institutions amid a breakdown in trust between investors.

    5. What are regulators doing about it?

    Authorities including the central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission are investigating some financial institutions’ entrusted bond holdings after the Sealand incident, people familiar with the matter said Tuesday. The holdings run contrary to the central bank’s push to trim investments made on borrowed money, according to China Merchants Bank Co. “It’s just a question of when Chinese regulators will clean up entrusted bond holdings,” said Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at the bank. Tommy Xie, an economist in Singapore at OCBC, says China’s market rout may prompt regulators to strengthen rules on entrusted holdings. He describes them as “a common practice in the grey area of the bond market.”

  • The Future Of Passports (& Citizenship By Investment)

    Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    "The bottom line is that anyone can be ISIS. We therefore need an approach to securing civilized societies that doesn't allow individuals to hide behind the cloak of Western passports… The time has come for a "global passport," a parallel digital certification of a person's identity, background, criminal record, travel history, and other details. The digital record would be regularly updated based on databases from airlines, customs agencies, banks and other sources, and could be managed by an independent international authority.”

    The above quote comers from CNN, an American news network that has done such an exemplary job in recent years in serving as a mouthpiece for the US Government.

    The argument for global passports is a familiar one – “You are in danger of being killed by terrorists. We will save you by removing yet another of your freedoms.” Or, as Hermann Goering said,

    The people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.”

    Over one billion people presently cross borders each year. In addition, there are over 250 million people who are expatriates – living outside their home country. These numbers are higher than ever before in history and growing. As The Great Unravelling progresses, we will witness a dramatic increase in both statistics. Along the way, we can expect the more restrictive governments, particularly those of the EU and US, to institute limitations on travel for their citizens, in order to keep them captive at home.

    So, we can therefore anticipate changes in the issuance of passports. There are two concepts afoot with regard to the future of passports, and they’re direct opposites of each other. The first is for a Global Passport, that all countries would issue and all would share computer information on all passport holders. The other is a proliferation of passports created by an easing of citizenship requirements in small countries, resulting in each individual having the ability to possess several passports, thus diminishing his “ownership” by his home country.

    These two concepts are both almost certain to develop considerably in the coming years and for the same reason. As stated, the more restrictive countries are likely to push for a global passport – an Orwellian document that says, “No matter where you are, you travel on our document. We have all your information and we own you.” The more this trend increases in prominence, the more the second trend will increase, in direct reaction. More and more countries will offer citizenship to non-nationals, as the demand for freedom increases amongst oppressed people.

    Most of the countries that presently offer “Citizenship by Investment” are small countries – Malta and Cyprus in the Mediterranean, plus five island nations in the Caribbean: Grenada, Antigua & Barbuda, St. Kitts & Nevis, Dominica and, recently, St. Lucia.

    A visit to any of the small Caribbean countries will reveal that since the decline of the sugar industry, they have had few choices with regard to future prosperity. Quaint small towns and villages and nice beaches attract a certain amount of tourism, but something greater is needed to support an entire population. Decades ago, St. Kitts & Nevis decided to try Citizenship by Investment. At first, the takers were few, but, in recent years, with much of the world imploding, the programme has attracted greater interest.

    The way it works is that an applicant can either buy citizenship (approval takes only a month or two) for $250,000, or he can buy into a real estate project for $400,000 or more. Due to recent success, other island nations have jumped on board, offering their own programmes… and here’s where it gets interesting.

    As soon as eight or 10 island nations are offering similar programmes, it will become a citizenship norm for the Caribbean. And, of course, that will mean competition will develop. With many countries to choose from, prices will need to drop. At some point, national leaders will seek to increase gross sales by lowering the sale price. Although $400,000 is out of reach to most who dream of buying an alternate passport, there will be far more takers at $200,000 or even $100,000, but I believe the magic price point to be $50,000. At that price, hundreds of thousands of second-passport seekers will jump on board. Indeed, many will purchase passports from several islands. (If one backup passport is good, multiple backup passports are better.)

    But, why are “bargain” passports not already available? From my own experience, as a West Indian, this is due to the fact that our political leaders often fear a dramatic influx of new voters. They feel safer appealing to natives than outsiders and worry that the electorate balance may be upset and cost them their seats in future elections.

    Yet, many West Indian countries already have laws that limit the rights of new citizens (with particular regard to the right to run for public office). To date, none of these countries has figured out that citizenship without the right to vote is an easy solution. Once they twig onto this new category of citizenship, we may see a major drop in citizenship costs and a dramatic increase in the number of applicants.

    At present, the passport schemes have attracted Russians, Canadians, Middle Easterners, Chinese and, increasingly, Americans. At present, the US is the foremost objector to Citizenship by Investment, describing its purpose to be “to provide cover for financial crimes.” However, over one hundred other countries, including most of Europe, accept the passports and the US is very much in the minority here.

    This is an issue to be watched closely. Historically, whenever governments have put the squeeze on their citizens’ freedoms, citizens have reacted by trying to wriggle out. The squeeze in many countries is presently at its zenith and many, many people are voting with their feet. There will always be takers in the world when this occurs and, in the Caribbean, opportunities for increased freedom are very much on the increase.

    *  *  *

    A second passport is the ultimate insurance policy against an out-of-control government. Think of it as your “freedom insurance.” The rules on second passports can change quickly. This is why it’s so important to have the most up-to-date, accurate, and actionable information out there. Be sure to get the guide we just released on the easiest countries to get a second passport from. Click here to download the PDF.

  • Did Donald Trump Just Jump The 'Dow 20,000' Shark?

    It appears the sugar-high from holiday celebrations is still running through president-elect Trump's veins as his tweets took an even more narcisistic tone on this oh-so-aptly-named 'Boxing Day' in America.

    First Trump decided to take credit for the unprecedented short-squeeze in US stock markets – and the Christmas spending numbers…

    We just wonder what he will sat if/when Goldman Sachs stops rising and stocks tumble ("never gonna happen", probably The Fed's fault after all), but perhaps even more importantly, how does he feel about the $1.2 trillion of value he has erased from global capital markets since his election?

     

    The drop in global debt and equity values in Q4 2016 is very reminiscent of the drop into 2015's Fed rate hike… which did not end well…

     

    But, the last time that global stocks and global bonds decoupled so aggressively was following the end of QE3… here's what happened next…

    But it's probably different this time, right? China is fine (oh wait, failed auctions and liquidity crisis), Europe is fine (oh wait, Italian banks are collapsing), and the US economy is great (oh wait, automakers are shuttering plants due to credit-created excess inventory).

    *  *  *

    But Trump was not done there, he took on the arrogance of Obama, as we detailed earlier

    Invincible politician and stock market savior…Let's just hope nothing goes wrong to break that narrative in the next 4 years (or 4 weeks).

  • Exit, Hope & Change – The Obama Post-Mortem

    Submitted by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

    By now, anyone in this country still of sound mind knows that Barack Obama presided through eight years of remarkable continuity – of changeless conditions that left a great many hopeless. As the days of his tenure dwindle, what do we make of the departing 44th president?

    He played the role with cool-headed decorum, but that raises the question: was he just playing a role? From the get-go, he made himself hostage to some of the most sinister puppeteers of the Deep State: Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, and Tim Geithner on the money side, and the Beltway Neocon war party infestation on the foreign affairs side. I’m convinced that the top dogs of both these gangs worked Obama over woodshed-style sometime after the 2008 election and told him to stick with the program, or else.

    What was the program?

    On the money side, it was to float the banks and the whole groaning daisy chain of their dependents in shadow finance, real estate, and insurance, at all costs. Hence, the extension of Bush Two’s bailout policy with the trillion-dollar “shovel-ready” stimulus, the rescue of the car-makers, and a much greater and surreptitious multi-trillion dollar hand-off from the Federal Reserve to backstop the European banks with counter-party obligations to US banks.

    In April of 2009, Obama’s new SEC appointees, strong-armed by bank lobbyists, pushed the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) into suspending their crucial Rule 157, which had required publically-held companies to report their asset holdings based on standard market-based valuation procedures — called “mark-to-market.” After that, companies like Too-Big-Too-Fail banks could just make shit up. This opened the door to the pervasive accounting fraud that allowed the financial sector to pretend it was healthy for the eight years that followed. The net effect of their criminal fakery was to only make the financial sector artificially larger, more dangerously fragile, and more prone to cataclysmic collapse.

    Another feature of life on the money-side of the Obama presidency was that nobody paid a personal price for financial misconduct. This established the basic ethos of Obama-era finance: anything goes, and nothing matters. All the regulators looked the other way most of the time. And when forced to act by egregious behavior, they made deals that let banking executives off-the-hook while their companies shelled out fines that amounted to the mere cost of doing business. It happened again and again. The poster boy for this kind of “policy” — or just plain racketeering — was Jon Corzine, the head of the commodities brokerage MF Global, whose company looted “segregated” customer accounts to the tune of nearly a billion dollars in the fall of 2011. Corzine was never prosecuted and remains at large to this day.

    Another signal failure in the money realm was Obama’s response to the 2010 Citizen United Supreme Court decision, which declared that the alleged legal “personhood” of corporations entitled them to exercise “free speech” by giving as much money as they wanted to political candidates for election. Big business no longer had to just rent congressmen and senators, they could buy them outright with cash.

    A conservative Supreme Court made the call, but Obama could have acted forcefully in the face of it. The former constitutional law professor-turned-politician could have marshaled a response in his Democratic Party-controlled congress to draft legislation, or a constitutional amendment, that would properly redefine the personhood of corporations. It should be obvious, for instance, that corporations, unlike human citizens, do not have duties, obligations, and responsibilities to the public interest; by legal charter they have only to answer to their shareholders and boards of directors. How does this confer the kind of political free speech “rights” that the court allowed them to claim? And how did the Obama and his allies in the legislative branch roll over to allow this disgraceful affront to the constitution to stand? And how is that almost nobody in the mainstream press or academic law even pressed these issues? Thanks to all of them, we’ve set up the primary means for establishing a fascist Deep State: the official marriage of corporate money and politics. Anything goes and nothing matters.

    Finally, in foreign affairs, there is Obama’s mystifying campaign against the Russian Federation. The US had an agreement with Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union that we would not expand NATO if they gave us a quantity of nuclear material that was in danger of falling into questionable hands in the disorder that followed the collapse. Russia complied. What did we do? We expanded NATO to include most of the former eastern European countries (except the remnants of Yugoslavia), and then under Obama, NATO began holding war games on Russia’s border. For what reason? The fictitious notion that Russia wanted to “take back” these nations — as if they needed to adopt a host of dependents that had only recently bankrupted the Soviet state. Any reasonable analysis would call these war games naked aggression by the West.

    Then there was the 2014 US State Department-sponsored coup against Ukraine’s elected government and the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych. Why? Because his government wanted to join the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union instead of an association with European Union. We didn’t like that and we decided to oppose it by subverting the Ukrainian government. In the violence and disorder that ensued, Russia took back the Crimea — which had been gifted to the former Ukraine Soviet Socialist Republic (a province of Soviet Russia) one drunken night by the Ukraine-born Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. What did we expect after turning Ukraine into another failed state? The Crimean peninsula had been part of Russia for longer than the US had been a country. Its only warm water naval ports were located there. They held a referendum and the Crimean people voted overwhelmingly to return to Russia. So, President Obama decided to punish Russia with economic sanctions.

    Then there was Syria, a battleground between the different branches of Islam, their sponsors (Iran and Saudi Arabia), and their proxies, (Hezbollah and the various Salafist jihad armies). The US “solution” was to sponsor the downfall of the legitimate Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad. We apparently still favored foreign relations based on creating failed states — after our experience in Iraq, Somalia, Libya, and Ukraine. President Obama completely muffed his initial attempt at intervention — the “line-in-the-sand” moment — and then decided to send arms and money to the various Salafist jihadi groups fighting Assad, claiming that our bad guys were “moderates.” Meanwhile, Russia stepped in to prop up Assad’s government, apparently based on the idea that the Middle East didn’t need yet another failed state. We castigated Russia for that.

    The idiotic behavior of the US toward Russia in these matters led to the most dangerous state of relations between the two since the heart of the Cold War. It culminated in the ridiculous campaign this fall to blame Russia for the defeat of Hillary Clinton. And here we are.

    I didn’t vote for Hillary or Donald Trump (I wrote-in David Stockman). I’m not happy to see Donald Trump become president. But I’ve had enough of Mr. Obama. He put up a good front. He seemed congenial and intelligent. But in the end, he appears to be a kind of stooge for the darker forces in America’s overgrown bureaucratic Deep State racketeering operation. Washington truly is a swamp that needs to be drained. Barack Obama was not one of the alligators in it, but he was some kind of bird with elegant plumage that sang a song of greeting at every sunrise to the reptiles who stirred in the mud. And now he is flying away.

     

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Today’s News 26th December 2016

  • A Loser's Malice: What's Behind Obama's Attacks On Putin

    Submitted by Michael Jabara Carley via Strategic-Culture.org,

    Relations between Russian president Vladimir Putin and US president Barack Obama are poisoned and irretrievably damaged. It’s therefore a good thing that Obama is leaving office on 20 January. Bad US-Russian relations are of course nothing new. Since the Anglo-American war against Iraq in 2003, the US-Russian relationship has been headed downhill. For Obama, it appears that everything has gotten personal. The US president often acts like a petulant adolescent, jealous of a high school rival. You know, the kid who does everything better than he does. The lad takes it badly and won’t let it go. He challenges his nemesis to some new contest at every opportunity only to lose again and again. That’s got to be hard on the ego. Between Obama and Putin there have been many such encounters. Nor can it help that western cartoonists so often ridicule Obama as out of his depth in comparison to Putin.

    Let’s consider Obama’s remarks at his last press conference on Friday, 16 December. «The Russians can’t change us or significantly weaken us», said Obama: «They are a smaller country. They are a weaker country. Their economy doesn’t produce anything that anybody wants to buy, except oil and gas and arms. They don’t innovate». This was insulting both Putin and his country, but not enough apparently for Obama. «They [the Russians] can impact us if we lose track of who we are. They can impact us if we abandon our values. Mr. Putin can weaken us, just like he’s trying to weaken Europe, if we start buying into notions that it’s okay to intimidate the press, or lock up dissidents, or discriminate against people because of their faith or what they look like».

    Western cartoonists so often ridicule Obama as out of his depth in comparison to Putin

    What on earth is Mr. Obama talking about? Intimidate the press? The Moscow newspapers and television media are loaded with «liberals». Many Russians call them «fifth columnists». They are «people with ‘more advanced’ worldview[s] who do not tolerate ‘Russian propaganda’ themselves», according to one colleague in Moscow. But Mr. Putin tolerates them and pays them no mind.

    «Lock up dissidents… discriminate against people»? What alternate reality does Mr. Obama live in? Doesn’t produce anything people want to buy? The United States buys rocket engines that it does not now produce at home. Maybe the Americans, a Russian commentator joked, can use high tech trampolines to get into space and do without Russian technology.

    In an interview the previous day with the American National Public Radio Obama ranted about Putin. It must have been a rehearsal for his press conference. «This is somebody, the former head of the KGB», said Obama, «who is responsible for crushing democracy in Russia… countering American efforts to expand freedom at every turn; is currently making decisions that's leading to a slaughter in Syria». What stupefying hypocrisy; what utter nonsense. Putin was a lieutenant colonel in the KGB, but never its head, and he certainly has not «crushed democracy in Russia». He even treats his political opposition with respect compared to Obama who dismisses president-elect Donald Trump as some kind of Russian Manchurian candidate. The Russians, according to Obama, interfered in the US presidential elections, and helped defeat fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton. They hacked the Democratic National Committee’s hard drive and passed thousands of emails to WikiLeaks, although, according to others, an outraged Clinton insider leaked the cache of embarrassing emails. Obama has dismissed that possibility. The Russians did the hack, he insists , and Putin must be held personally responsible.

    In Syria, the United States and its NATO and regional vassals are waging a war of aggression against the legitimate government in Damascus, backing jihadist terrorists

    Where’s the evidence? In Moscow, an angry Putin challenged Obama to put up or shut up. This is a hard thing for Obama to do. The Russians, he says, «counter American efforts to expand freedom at every turn». One wonders where that would be. In the Ukraine where the United States and European Union backed and guided the coup d’état against the democratically elected Ukrainian government? Or in Syria where the United States and its NATO and regional vassals are waging a war of aggression against the legitimate government in Damascus, backing jihadist terrorists? How many democratic governments or popularly supported political movements has the United States plotted against or destroyed since 1945? The list is long, including the 1996 Russian presidential election.

    Remember 2013, when the US government started a propaganda campaign about Syrian chemical weapons and warned of «red lines» that could not be crossed?

    Obama directly raised the issue of Syria during his NPR interview. The liberation of E. Aleppo from Al-Qaeda and other jihadists has infuriated the west. To the everlasting shame of France, the Eiffel Tower was darkened to mourn the defeat of Al-Qaeda. The Mainstream Media (MSM) is up in arms. Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Palestinian and Iraqi militias have helped the Syrian Arab Army to cleanse Aleppo of jihadist terrorists, and thwart the United States and its vassals. This is what galls Obama, being outmanoeuvred by a lesser man than he and a lesser country than the United States. How deplorable to speak of the liberation of E. Aleppo as «a slaughter in Syria».

    Obama’s frustrations began several years ago. Remember back in 2013, when the US government started a propaganda campaign about Syrian chemical weapons and warned of «red lines» that could not be crossed? Apparently, the US government came within an ace or two of launching massive air attacks on Syria. Putin intervened and the Syrian government gave up its chemical weapons, removing the US pretext for intervention. The print media had a field day showing Putin helping Obama out of a corner of his own making. All the while, Putin kept urging Russian-US cooperation against the jihadists in Syria, trying to draw the United States away from its ruinous policies. To no avail. Who then acted with greater statesmanship, Putin or Obama?

    In 2013, when the US government started a propaganda campaign about Syrian chemical weapons, Putin intervened and the Syrian government gave up its chemical weapons, removing the US pretext for intervention. The print media had a field day showing Putin helping Obama out of a corner of his own making.

    Temporarily thwarted in Syria, the United States opened up a new front on Russia’s southern frontier in the Ukraine. It backed the coup d’état in Kiev and turned a blind eye to the fascist vanguard, which kept the new Ukrainian junta in power. «The fascists are just ‘a few bad apples’», officials said in Washington, thinking that NATO had scored a great victory in getting its hands on Sevastopol so it could kick the Russian Black Sea fleet out of its traditional home base.

    You have to give credit to Obama; he was ambitious, aiming for a big prize and the humiliation of Russia and its president. Again, he was thwarted not so much by President Putin but by the Russian people of the Crimea who immediately mobilised their local self-defence units backed by «polite people», Russian marines stationed in Sevastopol, to kick out the Ukrainians with scarcely a shot fired. They organised a referendum to approve entry into the Russian Federation. Reunification was quickly approved by a huge majority and celebrated in Moscow. Putin gave a remarkably candid speech, explaining the Russian position. «NATO remains a military alliance,’ he said, «and we are against having a military alliance making itself at home right in our backyard or in our historic territory. I simply cannot imagine that we would travel to Sevastopol to visit NATO sailors. Of course, most of them are wonderful guys, but it would be better to have them come and visit us, be our guests, rather than the other way round».

    «NATO remains a military alliance,’ he said, «and we are against having a military alliance making itself at home right in our backyard or in our historic territory», Putin said

    It all happened so quickly, Obama must have looked on, dumbfounded, sputtering with angry frustration at having been outmanoeuvred by Crimean Russians who knew a thing or two after all about «innovating» and defending their land. Russians in the eastern Ukraine also resisted, taking up arms to defend themselves against Kiev’s fascist battalions.

    That was too much. Putin became Obama’s nemesis. The US president struck back with economic sanctions, which his European vassals quickly endorsed. When Malaysian Airlines, MH17, was shot down over the eastern Ukraine, Obama and the EU at once accused Putin of being responsible without a shred of evidence. In fact, the available evidence points to the Kiev junta as the guilty party, but the MSM paid no attention. It ran an orchestrated propaganda campaign leading to harder sanctions against Russia intended to sabotage the Russian economy and break the Russian government.

    Obama and his advisors again miscalculated. The Russian government instituted its own sanctions against the EU, and looked for other sources of supply or replaced foreign imports with Russian products. «We can do without Polish apples and French cheese», most Russians thought. «Liberals» sulked over the loss of their camembert, but that’s a small price to pay for Russian independence. Obama was outsmarted again by Russians who, he insists, can’t innovate. As for the EU, it suffered huge economic losses because of sanctions at American behest in a classic case of shooting oneself in the foot. It’s getting to be a habit; the EU has again renewed its sanctions against Russia.

    The EU has suffered huge economic losses because of its anti-Russia sanctions at American behest in a classic case of shooting oneself in the foot.

    Whilst the Ukrainian crisis dragged on, Obama had to turn his attention back to Syria. In the autumn of 2015, Putin ordered Russian aerospace and naval forces to intervene on behalf of the hard-pressed Syrian government which asked for assistance against the western-backed jihadist invasion. The tide of battle slowly turned. Again, Obama was caught off guard; again, the US plan to overthrow the Syrian government was thwarted by Obama’s nemesis. The United States tried bogus truces to allow its jihadist mercenaries to refit and resupply. At first, the Russians did not seem to catch on, accepting American proposals as genuine. They had to learn the hard way, but they did eventually. The liberation of E. Aleppo, although overshadowed by the simultaneous loss of Palmyra, is another blow to Obama’s policies and to his fragile ego.

    How could this «weaker… smaller country» outsmart the all-powerful Mr. Obama and the great US Hegemon?

    No wonder the US president is lashing out at Putin, publically insulting him and his country. No wonder the MSM is up in arms. How could this «weaker… smaller country» outsmart the all-powerful Mr. Obama and the great US Hegemon?

    Like the USSR before it, Russia has always had to pursue a politique du faible, a poor man’s policies, never having the abundant resources of it western adversaries. Russians learned early on to innovate. The fox has to make its way in a world full of dangerous wolves.

    What Obama must hate most of all is Putin’s exposure of US support for Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Who indeed is responsible for the «slaughter» in Syria? Obama calls it fighting for democracy. «Airstrike democracy», Putin once derisively replied. «Do you realise what you have done?» Putin asked at the UN in 2015, shocking the MSM. Obviously not, if one is to judge by Obama’s remarks of the last few days. He’s still the obsessive adolescent with doubts about himself and in over his head against a real statesman. Thank heavens Obama is on his way out the door of the White House. It’s not a minute too soon. Olliver Cromwell’s famous remark in 1653 to the Rump Parliament seems apposite. «You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately… Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!»

  • Goldman Sachs' 2016 Review (Crossword-Style)

    2016 was chock-full of surprises, both in markets and in politics.

    As Goldman's Allison Nathan explains, the year began with a perfect storm of worries that had become all too familiar already in 2015. Oil prices plunged and fears of faltering growth and a sharp depreciation of China’s currency escalated, driving disruptive sell-offs in credit and other risk assets. Confidence in global growth faltered, particularly after an anemic US GDP report for Q1.

    But oh, how the world has changed. Today, the price of crude oil is almost exactly double its January low in the wake of announced production cuts by OPEC and key non-OPEC producers (Russia). We expect WTI oil prices to move higher to a peak of $57.50/bbl in 1H17 as the cuts push the oil market into deficit and whittle down the current large inventory surplus. But we also expect shale producers to respond to the higher prices, implying limited upside from there.

    The rebound in oil prices led to a remarkable turnaround in credit markets, with HY Metals & Mining and E&Ps returning 49% and 36%, respectively, YTD; default rates normalizing; and spreads no longer pricing recession risk. We expect a further moderate compression of spreads in 2017 given expectations of a generally positive macro environment, gradual improvement in credit fundamentals, and, of course, our somewhat rosier oil outlook.

    And fears about China have generally receded into the background as Chinese policymakers continued an ambitious stimulus program that helped stabilize growth. A more dovish tilt by the Fed in response to the tightening of financial conditions caused by the Q1 sell-off also assuaged market fears. But we warn that China risk is not far from the surface.

    Capital outflow pressures have resumed amid the renewed strengthening in the US dollar. And policies that re-ignited growth in the short-term have just increased concerns about the future, particularly as credit growth has climbed. These potentially destabilizing trends merit watching next year, despite our mainline view of orderly currency moves and a continued bumpy deceleration in Chinese growth. (Side note: Meeting growth targets will be paramount next year amid China’s leadership transition.)

    It was not long after the market left China, oil, and credit concerns in the dust that political uncertainty took center stage—a place where it has solidly remained since. Brazil had its president impeached amid one of the country’s longest recessions/depressions on record; French primaries established an unexpected presidential candidate in former Prime Minister François Fillon; and Italy will enter the new year with an interim government following the resignation of Matteo Renzi.

    And we’ve not forgotten about one of the biggest political shocks of the year (decade, century?!): the UK’s vote in favor of Brexit. The now infamous Article 50, which needs to be activated to formally start the UK’s withdrawal process, still has not been triggered, and likely won’t be before March.

    Meanwhile, UK and EU priorities for their future relationship remain at odds, leaving market participants closely watching “soft Brexit”/”hard Brexit” swings in the headlines. That said, UK growth has proved remarkably resilient, and assets have held up with the exception of sterling, which is 10% weaker than before the referendum. Next year, we expect a formal start to Brexit talks, a moderation in UK growth, and further declines in sterling as uncertainty over Brexit sinks in.

    While it was hard to trump (sorry, we couldn’t resist!) the shock of Brexit, we dare say that Donald Trump defying almost all polls and betting markets to win the US Presidential election did just that. Trump’s cabinet and policy leanings are still being sorted out, but there appears to be potential for significant change ahead, be it in taxes, or environmental policy. There is no question that the policies of the new administration and their market implications will be Top of Mind throughout 2017.

    The unexpected election outcome also super-charged the narrative around two themes already in train: the global trade slowdown and reflation. Trump’s protectionist rhetoric—and the considerable executive power he will have on trade policy—do not bode well for global trade growth, which had already slowed considerably in recent years, or for some multilateral trade deals on the table (think the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP). Although we are keeping an eye on potential protectionist measures (a particular risk for EM Asia and Mexico, but also a likely drag on US growth), we otherwise see signs of a moderate improvement in trade ahead. Key to watch: how countries respond to the apparent shelving of the TPP (e.g., bilateral vs. multi-lateral trade talks).

    On reflation, we expect fiscal expansion and some further tightening in the labor market to sustain inflationary momentum in the US alongside moderately stronger growth, with US 10-year yields expected to end 2017 at 2.75%. This should be good news for equity markets at first: We expect the S&P 500 to rise to 2400 through 1Q2017, but then see the index settling to 2300 by year-end as rates rise further and investors recalibrate their policy outlooks. We still caution that equities are vulnerable should rates move too much, too fast, given stretched valuations following years of exceptionally low rates.

    Lastly, despite recent market optimism about fiscal expansion providing more stimulus, central bank policy will never be too far from investors’ minds next year. (And let’s not forget that ECB and BOJ asset purchases in fact enable more fiscal spend, so the lines between monetary and fiscal policy continue to blur.) We expect an acceleration of divergence as the Fed follows last week’s hike with three more in 2017 while the ECB and BOJ continue their asset purchases under new and apparently more sustainable parameters.

    Between this divergence, Trump, China, and a number of important European elections, 2017 is sure to be yet another interesting year for markets.

    We wish you a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year.

    *  *  *

    While you're relaxing on the sofa, full of food, and wine,  here's Goldman's year-end crossword…

     

    Solution here.

  • How Americans Spent Their Money In The Last 75 Years (In 1 Simple Chart)

    Consumer spending makes up a large percentage of the United States economy. We all have bills to pay and mouths to feed, but where do Americans spend their money? Here is a breakdown of how Americans spent their money in the last 75 years…

    In the chart above, spending is broken into 12 categories: Reading, alcohol, tobacco, education, personal care, miscellaneous, recreation & entertainment, healthcare, clothing, food, transportation and housing. Each category is further broken down into spending by year, from 1941 to 2014, and each category is given a unique color. The data were collected from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is adjusted for inflation and measures median spending of all Americans.

    Unsurprisingly, housing expenses have almost always been the largest area of spending in America for over 70 years. The only exception is 1941, when spending on food averaged $8,311, whereas spending on housing came to $7,537. However, in 1941 the government included alcohol in the food spending category, which inflates the food spending data for that year. In the other years, alcohol was given its own category. In every other year measured, spending on housing outpaced every other category.

    Another interesting trend is the downward slope of spending on clothing. Americans spent the most on clothing in 1961 for an average of $4,157. In every year measured since 1961, spending on clothing fell, even when accounting for inflation.

    At the same time, Americans began spending more on education, transportation and healthcare. Spending on education has increased far more than any other category, jumping from $242 in 1941 to $1,236 in 2014. Education spending increased at a particularly fast rate between 1984 and 1994 and onward. While spending on healthcare increased between 1941 and 2014, overall spending dipped between 1973 and 1984, but then began rising rapidly thereafter.

    Between 1941 and 2014 Americans spent money on most of the same things, with a few changes. Housing has persisted as a large area of spending for Americans, as has the food category. However, spending on food and clothing has fallen when adjusting for inflation while spending on education and healthcare has risen quickly.

    Source: HowMuch.net

  • The 'Triggered' 12 Days Of Trumpian Christmas

    It’s been quite a year…

    Source: Ben Garrison

  • At What Age Do You Outgrow IKEA?

    By Priceonomics

    If you’re a twenty something, it may already have happened: that awkward moment when you realize all your friends have the same Pinsoshen coffee table from IKEA. 

    The Swedish brand’s reputation for stocking stylish furniture and selling it for low prices has made it a one-stop shop for cash-strapped students furnishing their first apartments. 

    But when do they leave IKEA behind in favor of something more grown-up? We wanted to find out, so we analyzed data from Earnest , a Priceonomics customer. We analyzed a dataset of more than 10,000 anonymous user responses on spending habits. When does it begin? When does it end? And where do people turn when they’re ready for something new? 

    We first wanted to know how reliance on IKEA changes over a person’s lifetime, so we calculated the percent of our clients who shopped at IKEA. For the sake of comparison, we did the same for Lowe’s, a home improvement chain with similar overall popularity within our dataset.

    As it turns out, age 34 is when you start to outgrow IKEA:


    Data source: Earnest

    It’s written in the data: you’re more likely to buy from IKEA when you’re 24 than at any other time in your life. IKEA remains popular throughout the late 20s and early 30s, but drops after age 34. We may as well call the 10-year period spanning the mid-20s and mid-30s the “IKEA decade.”

    Lowe’s, meanwhile, shows the opposite trend: people are more likely to shop there as they get older. This makes sense, as increasing homeownership means more home improvement projects.

    We wanted to further explore where shoppers turn once they grow out of their IKEA interiors. For each of 14 top furniture retailers, we found the age when the most respondents reported shopping at that store. We tabulated those “peak customer ages” below.


    Data source:  Earnest

    Not only is IKEA popular among young adults, it is the only retailer with a peak customer age below 30. 

    People in their 30s are more likely to shop stores that specialize in housewares and home accessories like Bed Bath & Beyond and Williams-Sonoma – perhaps because their IKEA furniture is still serving them well. 

    The oldest customers in our dataset prefer to do it themselves, favoring Home Depot and Lowe’s. When buying ready-to-use furniture, they visit big-box retailers like Ashley Furniture.

    Beyond age, we were curious about which personal attributes predict furniture retailer preference. We calculated the percent of men and women in our sample claiming to shop each brand.


    Data source:  Earnest

    By and large, men and women visit the same stores when they go furniture shopping. And they visit IKEA in particularly even numbers. But do-it-yourself stores like Home Depot and Lowe’s are visited by men more often than women, and women visit most of the other stores we considered in greater numbers than men.

    Does geographic location influence retailer preference? We next looked at the percent of respondents from each state who identified themselves as IKEA shoppers. Results are listed below for all states for which we had at least 10 respondents.


    Data source:  Earnest

    The Swedish brand began its North American expansion in the mid-Atlantic states, and this region still has the most IKEA brick-and-mortars. But it doesn’t lay claim to the most shoppers; that distinction goes to the Midwest and West Coast, which are home to the top 8 states.

    This ranking is curiously uncorrelated to a listing of IKEA’s store locations. The top 4 states have just one store apiece. The popularity of IKEA in the west may have less to do with store ubiquity and more to do with lifestyle attributes that make the brand a natural fit.

  • Singer George Michael Dead At 53

    In a year that has claimed the lives of some of the most prolific and visible musical talents of more than one generation, including Prince and David Bowie, it is morbidly fitting that the man who gave us “Last Christmas”, George Michael, passed away on Christmas Day, “peacefully at home” according to his publicist.

    As the BBC first reported, the star, who launched his career with Wham in the 1980s and later continued his success as a solo performer, is said to have “passed away peacefully at home”.

    Thames Valley Police said South Central Ambulance Service attended a property in Goring in Oxfordshire at 13:42 GMT. Police say there were no suspicious circumstances.

    The cause of death has not been revealed.

    Michael, who was born Georgios Kyriacos Panayiotou in north London, sold more than 100m albums throughout a career spanning almost four decades.

    In a statement, the star’s publicist said: “It is with great sadness that we can confirm our beloved son, brother and friend George passed away peacefully at home over the Christmas period.

    “The family would ask that their privacy be respected at this difficult and emotional time. There will be no further comment at this stage.”

    Michael nearly died from pneumonia in late 2011. He received treatment in a Vienna hospital after which he made a tearful appearance outside his London home.

    He said it had been “touch and go” whether he lived. Surgeons had performed a tracheotomy to keep his airways open and he was unconscious for some of his time in hospital.

    Michael’s 1990 album Listen Without Prejudice Vol. 1 had been set to be reissued.

    It was due to be accompanied by a new film featuring Stevie Wonder, Elton John and the supermodels who starred in the video to his hit single Freedom! ’90.

    * * *

    Together with so many other greats who passed away in 2016, we thank George for the memories.

  • Bank Of Canada Lays Out In YouTube Clip How The Economy Could Tank

    As MacLean’s Jason Kirby points out, the Bank has taken to YouTube to warn Canadians about the dangers of too much debt and unrealistic house price expectations. He wonders, however, whether anyone will listen as one after another real estate bubble form in Canada, a nation whose household debt ratio has never been higher.

    As BMO pointed out, when the latest household debt ratio data was released, the upward trend in household debt goes back for the 26 years for which it has records and is showing no signs of slowing down.

    “While it looks as though the Vancouver housing market is cooling after the foreign buyers’ tax was implemented, the Toronto market remains very strong, and others are showing signs of improving as well,” said BMO senior economist Benjamin Reitzes.

    Meanwhile, none other than Canada’s central bank has ramped up its warnings about heavily indebted households and the unreasonable expectations driving the housing market, yet all indications are that Canadians have stuffed cotton in their ears.

    In Toronto, for instance, house prices are up nearly 15 per cent since the summer when Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz warned that price gains in the city were “difficult to match up with any definition of fundamentals that you could point to.” In the more than 15 years that the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index has tracked property prices in the city, there’s never been a six-month period when prices rose that fast. Meanwhile, the latest figures released by Statistics Canada showed the household debt-to-income ratio broke yet another record in the third quarter.

    Now Canada’s central bank is trying a different platform to get its message across: YouTube.

    In a video posted Monday on YouTube, in conjunction with the release of the Bank’s semi-annual financial system review last Thursday, Bank of Canada senior policy adviser Joshua Slive sketches out how Canada’s dangerous brew of debt and inflated house prices could combine to devastate the economy.

    Here’s the scenario that worries the Bank.

    1. As the Bank has pointed out already, households are highly indebted and house prices are rising at an unsustainable rate, though as Slive observes, people can often cope with these vulnerabilities for an extended period.

    2. That is, until an economic shock triggers a negative chain of events. For instance, a severe recession would lead to “a sharp increase” in unemployment.

    3. A lot of households, especially those carrying the heaviest debt loads, would have trouble meeting their debt payments. As a result, some households would start to default on their loans, and in turn, banks and trust companies would foreclose and try to sell those houses.

    4. At the same time, with the economy slowing, new buyers would delay house purchases until the economy improved. Given the challenges already facing the economy, this could “cause a large drop in house prices.”

    5. If house prices fell, it would push down household wealth, which has received a huge boost from the housing boom, and that could curtail consumer spending, which itself has become a primary driver of growth. The added stress on the financial sector would also weigh on the economy as lenders cut back on making new loans. Slive doesn’t use the term, but what he’s talking about is a credit crunch.

    There is good news, Slive says. Stress tests show Canada’s big banks will be just fine even with a large drop in house prices (stress tests also showed that both Belgian Dexia and Spanish Bankia were perfectly solvent just months prior to their respectively failrues). It’s also important to note that the Bank, in its financial system review, said there is a “low probability” of a sharp correction in house prices. But there’s no getting around the immense damage such a scenario would have on the economy.

    The video is a break from regular fare on the Bank of Canada’s YouTube channel, which is largely made up of speeches by top Bank officials. And even if Slive’s delivery is trademark central-banker dry, the message is stark, and shows the Bank is desperate for Canadians to heed its warnings on debt and rising house prices.

    If there’s one quibble to be made, it’s with the initial domino that the Bank sees setting everything in motion—a severe recession leading to job losses. Since the U.S. housing bubble popped and that country went into its long, dark funk, a chicken-versus-egg debate has raged over whether the housing collapse triggered the U.S. recession, or whether something else, like soaring oil prices, brought on the recession and turned the housing slowdown into a total collapse. What’s beyond debate is that America’s housing market reached its frothiest in mid-2006, and then began its decline, one-and-a-half years before the recession began.

    Whatever the case, the Bank’s video should be another wake-up call for Canadians, but “not that anyone’s listening” as Jason Kirby laments.

    Here’s the video in full.

  • Islamists Attack Christmas, But Europeans Abolish It

    Submitted by Giulio Meotti via The Gatestone Institute,

    • A statue of the Virgin Mary was ordered taken away by a court in the French municipality of Publier. Senator Nathalie Goulet slammed the judges as "ayatollahs of secularism".
    • A German school in Turkey just banned Christmas celebrations: the school, Istanbul Lisesi, funded by the German government, decided that Christmas traditions and carol-singing would no longer be allowed. A Woolworth's store in Germany scrapped Christmas decorations telling customers that the shop "is now Muslim".
    • Europe is already mutilating her own traditions "to avoid offending Muslims". We have become our own biggest enemy.
    • Muslims are also reclaiming "the mosque of Cordoba". Authorities in the southern Spanish city recently dealt a blow to the Catholic Church's claim of ownership of the cathedral. Now Islamists want it back.
    • The final result of Europe's self-destructive secularism could seriously be a Caliphate.

    "Everything is Christian", Jean-Paul Sartre wrote after the war. Two thousand years of Christianity have left a deep mark on the French language, landscape and culture. But not according to France's Minister of Education, Najat Vallaud-Belkacem. She just announced that instead of saying "Merry Christmas", state officials should use "Happy Holidays" — clearly a deliberate intent to erase from discourse and the public space any reference to the Christian culture in which France is rooted.

    Jean-François Chemain called it the "eradication of any Christian sign in the public landscape". A year ago, the controversy was ignited in the French town of Ploermel, where a court decided that the statue of Pope John Paul II, erected in a square, had to be removed for violating "secularism".

    Then, a statue of the Virgin Mary was ordered taken away by a court in the municipality of Publier. Senator Nathalie Goulet slammed the judges as "ayatollahs of secularism".

    The newspapers of the French "left", outraged by the "right's" ban on burkinis on the French Riviera, have been endorsing this anti-Christian policy.

    France's Council of State has just ruled that "the temporary installation of cribs [nativity scenes] in a public place is legal if it has a cultural, artistic or festive value, but not if it expresses the recognition of a cult or a religious preference". What precautions to justify a millenary tradition!

    In the town of Scaer, a nursing home has been the subject of a similar secularist complaint, for the presence of a fresco of the Virgin Mary. Then, it was the turn of the manger in the train station of Villefranche-de-Rouergue, in Aveyron. In the town of Boissettes, the church bells have been muted by court decision.

    Fortunately, some ideas from the Observatory of Secularism — the organ established by President François Hollande to coordinate his neo-secularist policies — have not been implemented. One proposed even to eliminate some Christian national holidays to make room for the Islamic, Jewish and secular holidays.

    President Hollande, on the occasion of Easter, "forgot" to express holiday wishes to the Christians of France. But a few months before, Hollande had extended his best wishes to the Muslims during the feast of Eid, which closes Ramadan. "Hollande's greeting to Muslims is opportunistic and political. For the Socialist Party, it is a crucial electoral clientele", said the French philosopher Gerard Leclerc in the newspaper, Le Figaro.

    This Christianophobia is the Trojan Horse of Islam. As Charles Consigny writes in the weekly Le Point, "Through this tabula rasa of the past, France will make a clean sweep of its future". Unfortunately, France is not an isolated case. Everywhere in Europe, a weary, secularist absence of purpose and confused values damns Christianity in favor of Islam.

    A jihadist terrorist, targeting a symbol of Christian tradition, last week slaughtered 12 people at a Christmas market in Berlin. But Europe is already mutilating her own traditions "to avoid offending Muslims". We have become our own biggest enemy.

    The annual candlelit Saint Lucia ("Sankta Lucia") procession, a Swedish Christian tradition celebrated for hundreds of years, is "dying" out. Uddevalla, Södertälje, Koping, Umeå, and Ystad are among the growing numbers of cities no longer holding this lovely cultural event. According to Jonas Engman, an ethnologist at the Nordic Museum, the declining interest in the St. Lucia procession accompanies a more general alienation from the culture of Christian Sweden. A study conducted by Gallup International reveals that in observing the Christian religion, Sweden is "the least religious in the West". In the meantime, with a young, strong, driven sense of purpose and a set of sharia values, Islam is growing.

    A German school in Turkey just banned Christmas celebrations. The school, Istanbul Lisesi, funded by the German government, decided that Christmas traditions and carol-singing would no longer be permitted. The Washington Post summarized the decision: "No teaching of Christmas customs, no celebrations and no Christmas caroling". It is not an isolated incident. A Woolworth's store in Germany also scrapped Christmas decorations, telling customers that the shop "is now Muslim".

    In Britain, David Isaac, the new head of the Equalities and Human Rights Commission (EHRC), told employers that they should not suppress Christian tradition out of fear of offending anyone. Previously, Dame Louise Casey, the British government's integration "tsar", warned that "traditions such as Christmas celebrations will die out unless people stand up for British values".

    In many Spanish towns, such as Cenicientos, the municipality of this Autonomous Community of Madrid removed the Christian Stations of the Cross. Then, Madrid's mayor, Manuela Carmena, decided to remove the city's traditional Nativity display at the Puerta de Alcalá.

    Muslims are also reclaiming "the mosque of Cordoba". Authorities in the southern Spanish city recently dealt a blow to the claim of ownership of the cathedral by the Catholic Church. Built on the site of Saint Vincent's church, it then served as a mosque for over 400 years when Islamic Spain was part of a caliphate, before the Christian kingdom of Castile conquered the city and converted it again into a church. Now Islamists want it back.

    Muslims are also reclaiming "the mosque of Cordoba". Authorities in the southern Spanish city recently dealt a blow to the claim of ownership of the cathedral by the Catholic Church. Built on the site of Saint Vincent's church, it then served as a mosque for over 400 years when Islamic Spain was part of a caliphate, before the Christian kingdom of Castile conquered the city and converted it again into a church. (Image source: James (Jim) Gordon/Wikimedia Commons)

    Belgium, the most Islamized democracy in Europe, is also purging its Christian heritage. The Nativity, the traditional manger scene, has not been put up in the Belgian town of Holsbeek, just outside Brussels. Claims were scenes it was scrapped to "avoid offending Muslims".

    As reported by the newspaper La Libre, school calendars within Belgium's French speaking community are also using a new secularized terminology: All Saints Day (Congés de Toussaint) is now be referred to as Autumn Leave (Congé d'automne); Christmas Vacation (Vacances de Noël) is now Winter Vacation (Vacances d'hiver); Lenten Vacation (Congés de Carnaval) is now Rest and Relaxation Leave (Congé de détente); and Easter (Vacances de Pâques) is now Spring Vacation (Vacances de Printemps). Then Belgium installed an abstract, de-Christianized Christmas tree in the capital, Brussels.

    In the Netherlands, the Christian tradition of Black Pete is under attack and it will soon be abolished. In Italy, Catholic priests this year canceled Christmas to "avoid offending Muslims".

    The final result of Europe's self-destructive secularism could seriously be a Caliphate, in which the fate of its ancient and beautiful churches recapitulates those in Constantinople, where the Hagia Sophia, for thousand years Christianity's greatest cathedral, was recently turned into a mosque. The muezzin's call now reverberates inside this Christian landmark for the first time in 85 years.

    Islamic terrorists targeted Christmas in Berlin, but it is the Christian secularists who are abolishing it all over Europe.

  • The Scariest Forecast For Treasury Bulls

    With Trump’s border tax adjustment looking increasingly likely, the stock market – as JPM has warned in recent days – is starting to fade the relentless Trumponomic, hope-driven rally since election day instead focusing on the details inside the president-elect’s proposed plans. And, as explained earlier in the week, if the border tax proposal is implemented, economists at Deutsche Bank estimate the tax could send inflation far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and drive a 15% surge in the dollar.

    While this would be bad for stocks, as a 5% increase in the dollar translates into about a 3% negative earnings revision for the S&P 500 all else equal, a surge in inflation would also wreak havoc on bond prices, and send interest rates surging, at least initially, before they subsquently plunge as a result of a rapidly tightening, deep “behind the curve” Fed unleashes a curve inversion and recessionary stagflation becomes the bogeyman du jour.

    There’s more.

    In a separate report by Deutsche, the bank looks at future prospects for rates and concludes that “tightening monetary policy, higher breakevens, and declining central bank purchases relative to net supply should all contribute to significant bearish steepening during 2017.”

    In its analysis of future bond rates, Deutsche Bank says that the biggest risk is that when looking at the menu of “threats” presented by the Trump stimulus, “there is a significant risk that if the Fed decides to aggressively lean against higher inflation expectations, the entire “regime shift” might stall. That is, higher wages and inflation expectations are a prerequisite to the substitution of capital for labor, which is in itself necessary for more rapid productivity growth and hence higher potential growth and sustainably higher levels of r*.”

    And then the focus shifts so that whatever degree of accommodation is warranted, there will be the push to rebalance away from rising short rates to shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, in other words, the Fed begins real normalization.

    In DB’s model, the net effect of ending reinvestment of SOMA portfolio run-off, some asset sales, and an ECB taper is almost 200 bps. This would allows 10s to move well over 4 percent in 2018. That although roll offs are significant – maybe $50 billion/month – in order to get the balance sheet down from more than $4 trillion to say $1 trillion before the 4-year presidential term is over would still require asset sales of  approximately $50 billion.

    Assuming Deutsche Bank is correct, the result would be the scariest forecast bond bulls have seen in years: a 10-Year TSY whose yield fades all gains attained during the past decade, in the span of just two short years, hitting 4.5% in early 2019. The adverse implications from such a fast, steep move on all asset classes, not just bonds, would be devastating.

    Will this forecast come true? Readers can make their own determinations upon reading DB’s assumptions:

    Formally, DB’s model of 10s has three explanatory variables. The main driver is the ratio global QE purchases to net supply in nominal terms with a nine-month lead, i.e., the market is forward looking. Global QE and supply figures are from the US, Europe and Japan. The other two variables in the model are Fed funds and the 2s/funds spread. The model is estimated between October 2006 and September 2016.

    These assumptions are summarized in the following three scenarios:

    1. Base case: Trump’s fiscal stimulus, amounting to about $530 billion per year for ten years.
    2. Base case + ECB taper + Fed portfolio rolloff. In this case, 10s are about +70bp higher in yields than in the base case.
    3. Base case + ECB taper + Fed portfolio rolloff + Fed asset sales. 10s are about +100bp higher in yields than in base case.

    The assumptions in the scenarios are:

    • President-elect Trump’s stimulus package, scored by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget adds $5.3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. This averages to $530 billion per year, starting in July 2017, around the time the plan is expected to be passed by Congress.
    • The ECB tapers QE purchases by ½ in 2018, and stops all purchases in 2019.
    • Fed balance sheet reductions: The Fed stops reinvestments of maturing Treasuries and MBS pre-payments starting Q4 2017. Asset sales at $250 billion in 2018 and $500 billion in 2019.
    • The Fed funds target range rises to 2.50%-2.75% by year end 2019, with the 2s/funds spread at 60bp.

    Visually:

    Needless to say, DB is convinced that there is a lot of pain coming for the bond market. To wit:

    “Our strongest market view, therefore, is that investors should be short duration. Rates are going higher. The curve should end up steeper but this Fed’s initial reaction as per this week can confuse curve dynamics. Real rates should not rise more than breakevens. In the short run dollar strength should persist.”

    We are far less confident, especially if indeed the border tax is implemented, sending the dollar soaring, US exports, and GDP crashing, and corporate profits plunge. In short: if Trump unleashes a recession by implementing a policy which is meant to eliminate the US trade deficit.

    In such a case, forget steepeners: buy every flattener you can get your hands on, and then use leverage, because before you know it the 2s30s will be back in the double digits, then single, and then, not too long from now, negative.

    Whether that is the catalyst that will kick off QE4 or whatever the current number is, we don’t know, but by that point China will be spitting up blood as a result of a historic collapse in the Yuan, hundreds of billions in monthly outflows and a paralyzed, and crushed financial system. Ironically, in light of the devastation that may soon befall China should Trump’s policies pan out, the US – recession or not – may still be the “cleanest dirty shirt” in a world where things are about to get very messy.

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Today’s News 25th December 2016

  • Shifting Power: Visualizing The World's Largest Cities For The Last 6000 Years

    In 300 B.C., Carthage was one of the world’s largest cities with up to 700,000 people living within its walls. The Carthaginian republic was a force to be reckoned with, controlling inconceivable amounts of wealth and land all around the Mediterranean.

    However, just over a century later in 146 B.C., Carthage was burnt to the ground by the Romans. The destruction of Carthage was so thorough that many things are still not known about their civilization today. Carthage went from being a major power to literally being wiped off of the map.

    A few decades after the annihilation of Carthage, it was Rome’s turn to become the world’s largest city for close to 500 years. Of course, Rome itself would fall by 476 A.D. for a variety of reasons.

    And so the title of the world’s largest city would transfer again, this time to Constantinople across the Mediterranean.

    The World’s Largest Cities Throughout History

    In the grand scheme of history, things change quite fast. As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins explains, one cataclysmic choice or event can turn even the greatest empire into a heap of rubble. Sometimes the decline of a world-class city is more gradual – and it is over time that it loses its title to another place in a far and distant land.

    The following animated map from KPMG Demographics tracks the world’s largest cities from 4,000 BC to today, and it shows how temporary a city’s rise to prominence can be.

    World's Largest Cities Throughout History
    (Keep in mind that there is some disagreement by historians over which cities were the biggest in certain time periods.)

    The power of industrialization and technology can be seen here. Up until the 1800s, it was almost unfathomable to have a city of more than a million inhabitants.

    Sanitation was a major limiting factor, but other issues like transportation and a lack of density also made it a challenge. The Industrial Revolution changed that, and starting in the 1800s you see cities like London, New York, and Tokyo taking the title in an exponential fashion. It caps off with Delhi in 2050, expected to have a whopping 40 million inhabitants by that time.

    Source: Visual Capitalist

  • Trump 'Triggers' Social Media Over Democrat-Bashing Putin Tweet

    President-elect Donald Trump 'triggered' the social media world into a frenzy Friday night with a tweet that praised Russian president Vladimir Putin's criticism of Democrats. As The Hill reports, Putin on Friday deflected accusations of Russian interference in the U.S. election, saying at a press conference: "Democrats are losing on every front and looking for people to blame everywhere. They need to learn to lose with dignity."

    Later Friday, Trump piled on, lauding Putin and continuing his denial that Russia interfered in the election.

      Trump's words drew widespread condemnation on Twitter,   from journalists, liberals, conservatives and those in the entertainment industry…

     

    Truth hurts eh?

  • The Radical Jesus: How Would The Baby In A Manger Fare In The American Police State?

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Jesus is too much for us. The church’s later treatment of the gospels is one long effort to rescue Jesus from ‘extremism.’”—author Gary Wills, What Jesus Meant

    Jesus was good. He was caring. He had powerful, profound things to say – things that would change how we view people, alter government policies and change the world. He went around helping the poor. And when confronted by those in authority, he did not shy away from speaking truth to power.

    Jesus was born into a police state not unlike the growing menace of the American police state.

    But what if Jesus, the revered preacher, teacher, radical and prophet, had been born 2,000 years later? How would Jesus’ life have been different had he be born and raised in the American police state?

    Consider the following if you will.

    The Christmas narrative of a baby born in a manger is a familiar one.

    The Roman Empire, a police state in its own right, had ordered that a census be conducted. Joseph and his pregnant wife Mary traveled to the little town of Bethlehem so that they could be counted. There being no room for the couple at any of the inns, they stayed in a stable, where Mary gave birth to a baby boy. That boy, Jesus, would grow up to undermine the political and religious establishment of his day and was eventually crucified as a warning to others not to challenge the powers-that-be.

    However, had Jesus been born in the year 2016…

    Rather than traveling to Bethlehem for a census, Jesus’ parents would have been mailed a 28-page American Community Survey, a mandatory government questionnaire documenting their habits, household inhabitants, work schedule, how many toilets are in your home, etc. The penalty for not responding to this invasive survey can go as high as $5,000.

    Instead of being born in a manger, Jesus might have been born at home. Rather than wise men and shepherds bringing gifts, however, the baby’s parents might have been forced to ward off visits from state social workers intent on prosecuting them for the home birth. One couple in Washington had all three of their children removed after social services objected to the two youngest being birthed in an unassisted home delivery.

    Had Jesus been born in a hospital, his blood and DNA would have been taken without his parents’ knowledge or consent and entered into a government biobank. While most states require newborn screening, a growing number are holding onto that genetic material long-term for research, analysis and purposes yet to be disclosed.

    Then again, had his parents been undocumented immigrants, they and the newborn baby might have been shuffled to a profit-driven, private prison for illegals where they would have been turned into cheap, forced laborers for corporations such as Starbucks, Microsoft, Walmart, and Victoria’s Secret. There’s quite a lot of money to be made from imprisoning immigrants, especially when taxpayers are footing the bill.

    From the time he was old enough to attend school, Jesus would have been drilled in lessons of compliance and obedience to government authorities, while learning little about his own rights. Had he been daring enough to speak out against injustice while still in school, he might have found himself tasered or beaten by a school resource officer, or at the very least suspended under a school zero tolerance policy that punishes minor infractions as harshly as more serious offenses.

    Had Jesus disappeared for a few hours let alone days as a 12-year-old, his parents would have been handcuffed, arrested and jailed for parental negligence. Parents across the country have been arrested for far less “offenses” such as allowing their children to walk to the park unaccompanied and play in their front yard alone.

    Rather than disappearing from the history books from his early teenaged years to adulthood, Jesus’ movements and personal data—including his biometrics—would have been documented, tracked, monitored and filed by governmental agencies and corporations such as Google and Microsoft. Incredibly, 95 percent of school districts share their student records with outside companies that are contracted to manage data, which they then use to market products to us.

    From the moment Jesus made contact with an “extremist” such as John the Baptist, he would have been flagged for surveillance because of his association with a prominent activist, peaceful or otherwise. Since 9/11, the FBI has actively carried out surveillance and intelligence-gathering operations on a broad range of activist groups, from animal rights groups to poverty relief, anti-war groups and other such “extremist” organizations.

    Jesus’ anti-government views would certainly have resulted in him being labeled a domestic extremist. Law enforcement agencies are being trained to recognize signs of anti-government extremism during interactions with potential extremists who share a “belief in the approaching collapse of government and the economy.”

    While traveling from community to community, Jesus might have been reported to government officials as “suspicious” under the Department of Homeland Security’s “See Something, Say Something” programs. Many states, including New York, are providing individuals with phone apps that allow them to take photos of suspicious activity and report them to their state Intelligence Center, where they are reviewed and forwarded to law-enforcement agencies.

    Rather than being permitted to live as an itinerant preacher, Jesus might have found himself threatened with arrest for daring to live off the grid or sleeping outside. In fact, the number of cities that have resorted to criminalizing homelessness by enacting bans on camping, sleeping in vehicles, loitering and begging in public has doubled.

    Viewed by the government as a dissident and potential threat to its power, Jesus might have had government spies planted among his followers to monitor his activities, report on his movements, and entrap him into breaking the law. Such Judases today—called informants—often receive hefty paychecks from the government for their treachery.

    Had Jesus used the internet to spread his radical message of peace and love, he might have found his blog posts infiltrated by government spies attempting to undermine his integrity, discredit him or plant incriminating information online about him. At the very least, he would have had his website hacked and his email monitored.

    Had Jesus attempted to feed large crowds of people, he would have been threatened with arrest for violating various ordinances prohibiting the distribution of food without a permit. Florida officials arrested a 90-year-old man for feeding the homeless on a public beach.

    Had Jesus spoken publicly about his 40 days in the desert and his conversations with the devil, he might have been labeled mentally ill and detained in a psych ward against his will for a mandatory involuntary psychiatric hold with no access to family or friends. One Virginia man was arrested, strip searched, handcuffed to a table, diagnosed as having “mental health issues,” and locked up for five days in a mental health facility against his will apparently because of his slurred speech and unsteady gait.

    Without a doubt, had Jesus attempted to overturn tables in a Jewish temple and rage against the materialism of religious institutions, he would have been charged with a hate crime. Currently, 45 states and the federal government have hate crime laws on the books.

    Rather than having armed guards capture Jesus in a public place, government officials would have ordered that a SWAT team carry out a raid on Jesus and his followers, complete with flash-bang grenades and military equipment. There are upwards of 80,000 such SWAT team raids carried out every year, many on unsuspecting Americans who have no defense against such government invaders, even when such raids are done in error.

    Instead of being detained by Roman guards, Jesus might have been made to “disappear” into a secret government detention center where he would have been interrogated, tortured and subjected to all manner of abuses. Chicago police “disappeared” more than 7,000 people into a secret, off-the-books interrogation warehouse at Homan Square.

    Charged with treason and labeled a domestic terrorist, Jesus might have been sentenced to a life-term in a private prison where he would have been forced to provide slave labor for corporations or put to death by way of the electric chair or a lethal mixture of drugs.

    Either way, whether Jesus had been born in our modern age or his own, he still would have died at the hands of a police state. Indeed, as I show in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, what Jesus and other activists suffered in their day is happening to those who choose to speak truth to power today.

    Thus, we are faced with a choice: remain silent in the face of evil or speak out against it. As Nobel Prize-winning author Albert Camus proclaimed:

    Perhaps we cannot prevent this world from being a world in which children are tortured. But we can reduce the number of tortured children. And if you don’t help us, who else in the world can help us do this?

  • "Lines Out The Door": How Americans Respond When Liberal States Restrict Their Gun Rights

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    The window is closing on freedom in the Golden State, as liberal government leaders and increasingly bureaucratic laws are being used to strip away the rights of the people.

    Gov. Jerry Brown has signed a slew of new laws, seen by many as unconstitutional, that will make it incrementally more difficult for Californians to keep and bear arms.

    But in response to new restrictions on owning so-called “assault weapons” and certain types of semi-automatic firearms, millions are lining up to make purchases during the last legal time frame to do so.

    While the state tramples on freedom and bites back at the spirit of the founders who abhorred such bureaucratic tyranny, these patriots are sending a message that they won’t take it lying down, and will do all they can to hold onto their American heritage – and pass it down to future generations.

    As of today, people can no longer legal purchase under the new laws taking effect, due to the 10-day waiting period law already in place.

    via The Blaze:

    Gun sales in California have skyrocketed during the second half of 2016 after California Gov. Jerry Brown, a Democrat, signed into law earlier this year a sweeping new set of gun control laws that are set to take effect Jan. 1.

     

    Brown signed into law six measures, including one that requires California citizens to allow the government to confiscate their “high capacity” magazines, a law that requires a background check for ammunition sales, in addition to a “bullet button law.”

     

    So-called bullet buttons are devices on semi-automatic rifles that allow a user to easily eject and insert a new magazine. You will still be able to own rifles that have a bullet button in California, but you’ll no longer be able to purchase a firearm that has one, according to the Los Angeles Times.

     

    However, citizens who own firearms with the “bullet button” will have one year to register the gun with the state of California as an “assault weapon.”

     

    […]

     

    The new guns laws have led to a run on firearms in California… Joshua Deaser, the owner of Just Guns in Sacramento, told the Times, “When Gov. Brown signed that bill, the first 30 days in July were just insane. It died down for a while but now we are back with everyone trying to get what they can before the end of the year.”

     

    “We have people lined up out the door and around the block,” Terry McGuire, owner of the Get Loaded gun store in San Bernardino, added.

    And they aren’t stopping there.

    Breitbart is reporting that Californian lawmakers are planning an attempt at all-out ban of semi-automatic weapons in the coming year.

    How that will play out remains to be seen, but the continued assault on the 2nd Amendment rights of all Americans trapped inside the country’s most populous state:

    In a recent conversation with Breitbart News, Gun Owners of California’s (GOC) Sam Paredes told us to be ready for an all-out ban on semi-automatic long guns in California’s coming legislative session.

     

    Paredes suggested the “assault weapons” ban and the “bullet button” ban have both been part of an incremental move…

     

    “These laws are the tip of the iceberg here in California. We expect they are going to introduce legislation to totally ban semi-automatic long guns in California. They will do this because they know we will come up with a new way to beat their latest ban–the ‘bullet button’ ban–if given time.”

    Eventually, a chaotic world will attempt to take away all the rights of the individual to self-defense.

    If there wasn’t so much push back, it would surely be overnight.

    Never mind that it opens up big cities to unrestricted violence and an overall diminished quality of life and access to opportunity.

    This is a system that wants control, and to achieve that, they will stop at nothing short of a totally-disarmed population.

    Read more:

    The Watchlist Gun Bans Begin: Obama Enlists Governors to Bypass Congress: “By Executive Order”

    Are You Designated As A “Super Gun Owner” And Will You Soon Be Targeted For Disarmament?

    Texas Police Chief Warns Obama That Gun Control Will “Cause A Revolution… You’re Not Our Potentate, Sir”

    Confiscation Is Coming: Obama To Issue Executive Order Targeting 4.2 Million Retirees With Massive Gun Ban

    The Push For Full Disarmament of America Has Begun: “Outright Gun Ban and Mass Confiscation Once and For All”

  • IceCap Asset Management On Investing Through The Eyes Of An Ostrich

    Submitted by Keith Dicker IceCap Asset Management

    The ostrich is an awesome bird. It has awesome legs, awesome eggs and an even more awesome history. 5,000 years ago, the Mesopotamians featured the giant bird on cups, shirts, and walls; and even used its eggs as currency in trade. 2,000 years later, the ostrich continued to be revered and this time in Egypt. On special occasions, pharaohs received ostrich eggs, ostrich feathers, and even ostrich hats as gifts of honor and respect.

    Yet, despite all of these accolades, the ostrich is also incredibly odd. During heated moments of battle, the giant bird chooses not to use its powerful legs as weapons, but instead uses its head to slam it repeatedly against its opponent. As well, the ostrich loves a good bath. Sight of the slightest pool of water is enough to make the ostrich circle about in delight.

    But when it comes to oddities, nothing is more odd than the ostrich and the most famous coping mechanism of all – sticking its head in the sand.

    Today, the ostrich population is in decline but not its relevance. With the financial and political world in chaos, investors everywhere are suddenly imitating this legendary bird.

    Some investors recognise global financial risks are accelerating, yet they remain stubborn, refusing to acknowledge where the risk runs deepest and are repeatedly slamming their heads against the wall in frustration. Others meanwhile, refuse to believe that any risk exists at all, continue to wear their favourite market hat and shirt, while sticking their heads in the sand at the next sight of trouble. So, for everyone with a bruised and sandy head, we suggest you alter your perspective, shed any biases and embrace the opportunity to run around in delight in our rapidly changing world.

    * * *

    Our research firmly reasons that the world is in the late stages of an enormous bubble in the bond market, and as it turns over it will affect all markets and strategies – regardless of where you sit in the world.

    This convergence of political, social, economic, monetary and fiscal factors is developing, that while may seem chaotic to many – appears quite plain and simple to those who are able to see straight.

    Our view has remained very consistent and has been stated through various media outlets and in private presentations – which results in our view as being “made public” with a “time stamp”. This means we cannot suddenly twist any of our past words to reconcile with current markets. Considering all of the recent chaos in the world, it’s important for us to revisit our success in forecasting many of these seemingly low probability events.

    Of course, we share these experiences not because we want to tout our success in forecasting these events, but rather because it helps investors understand our perspective, why it has been correct, and most importantly – why we continue to maintain our view.

    Our September 2016 Global Outlook “Fright Night” described in detail how and why long-term interest rates will catapult higher and therefore create an incredible rush of capital away from bonds and into USD and the stock market. After publishing, we had many kind emails, meetings and conversations thanking us for providing a simplified explanation of the risk in bond markets. We also had people shrug their shoulders and roll their eyes – after all, while bonds may not provide much of a return anymore, they are the safest investment in the world.

    Or, so you’ve been told. The reason why the world’s bond market was turned upside down, inside out and tossed out with the trash was because of the following:

    Long-term interest rates increased from +1.7% to +2.4%

    Yes, that is not a typo. A mere 0.7% move higher was enough to wake up sleepy bond investors, create $1.7 Trillion in losses, and devastate the entire bond world.

    Our Chart 1 below puts this historical event in perspective.

    It’s at this point where big bank economists and bond lovers everywhere carelessly proclaim this is not a big deal. In fact, they say it’s easy to see that long-term rates have increased like this before and everyone adjusted swimmingly.

    Of course, this kind of linear thinking fails to consider the following:

    • massive accumulation of government debt
    • deteriorating government deficits
    • increasing taxes & increasing government spending
    • NEGATIVE and 0% interest rates
    • money printing

    Analysing these points obviously shows that the problems in the world today are squarely centered in the public/government sector – not the private sector. Few people alive today, and certainly no one working in the investment industry, has ever experienced a global crisis in the government sector before. Think about this for a long time – yes, it is that important. Every other crisis we’ve experienced (housing crisis, tech bubble crisis, savings and loan bank crisis, 1970s oil/inflation crisis, etc) has always originated in the private sector.

    Few people alive today, and certainly no one working in the investment industry, has ever experienced a global crisis in the government sector before. Think about this for a long time – yes, it is that important.

    Every other crisis we’ve experienced (housing crisis, tech bubble crisis, savings and loan bank crisis, 1970s oil/inflation crisis, etc) has always originated in the private sector.

    And since these crises were in the private sector – the risks eventually manifested themselves (they always do) in the stock market.

    Since today’s sovereign debt crisis is in the public sector – the risks will manifest not in the stock market, but in the bond market.

    This really is the most important point to understand today. Yet because the big bank mutual fund machines cannot find (or really, even bother to look) this risk or perspective, trillions of investment Dollars, Yen, Pounds and Euros are all fighting yesterday’s war and refuse to see where the front has opened.

    To be clear – the front is the bond market. Of course, many investment managers clearly know there is a certain big risk in today’s market place. As well, we’ve commented before that many of the really big investment firms in the world do not really manage your wealth. Instead, they simply collect your assets, plunk them into their various investment funds, make micro-changes at the fringe and then proceed to watch the trillions in fees roll through the door.

    Those who are in the investment industry are quietly nodding in agreement, while those not in the investment may be rather unconvinced. After all every investment manager and mutual fund manager is sharp as a tack, and has their finger on the pulse of the global financial system. Sadly, this isn’t true. Instead, if it hasn’t happened already, many investment managers are actually slowly morphing into – an ostrich.

    As this can be a tricky and uncomfortable transition, our Chart 2 below provides an easy to follow analysis to help you determine whether your investment manager is in fact a giant, bird-like creature.
    The first type of manager is the one who believes the world is just fine. Yes, growth may be a little slow but markets are forward looking and have discounted any and all future worries.

    While the optimism is to be respected, the ignorance towards zero and negative interest rates, money printing strategies to suppress long-term interest rates, and the sharpening knife of the anti-establishment political movement – results in these managers sticking their heads in the sand at the first sight of trouble. Since these managers are always seeking the best growth opportunities around the world, today they find themselves drooling over emerging market stocks as well as emerging market bonds, and high yield bonds.

    Next up, we have the investment manager who is acutely aware of the many risks running around the world today. They clearly see the rise of political uncertainties, fear the consequences of zero and negative interest rates and feel queasy towards all of the money printing going on.

    This deep respect and acknowledgment of the risks around the world is a sign of a dynamic thinking investment firm. There are many of these firms out there, and some of them correctly foresaw the housing market crash.  However, while we obviously respect this group of managers we politely point out that while we agree with their deep concern about market risk, we disagree with their conclusion as to where the risk lies. This group believes the stock market & USD are the center of the evil universe and investment in these areas should be avoided at all cost.

    Unfortunately, if you avoid stocks and the USD then by default you love bonds, Euros and gold.

    And even more unfortunately – bonds, Euros and especially gold are growing weaker by the minute, which is resulting in these managers repeatedly slamming their heads in frustration.

    Investments in these markets are eliciting not only painful negative returns, but also painful reasons why the market is wrong and it will turn around any day now. While investment markets are always full of unexpected events, we do hope that these managers are able to see the error of their ways, otherwise there’s the very real probability that eventually they turn into a different bird altogether – a turkey.

    Code Red

    Days after the dust settled on the bond market debacle, we had a meeting with one of the world’s largest bond managers. We asked them on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being complete devastation, how would they rate the recent decline in the bond market?

    The answer = 8

    Again, we stress to you that a 0.7% increase in long-term interest rates created untold havoc throughout the bond world. Imagine what would happen if long-term interest rates increased by 1% or 3%, or even 6%? The short answer is a surging USD and a surging stock market.

    The best thing (or worst, depending upon your view), is that this tiny 0.7% increase in long-term rates is merely the tip of the iceberg.

    The long end of the bond market is now broken and the 30 year bull market in long duration, fixed income is over, kaput, done. If you own any of this stuff, it’s time to make a change. If you manage any of this stuff, it’s time to get a new job. But, if you need to borrow money, now is the time to borrow and lock in the longest maturity possible. Doing any of these three, will help you prosper in a devastating world for bonds.

    * * *

    Optimism is a human trait, and since bond managers are humans it is only natural to expect optimism to arise from the bond ashes in some shape or form. And that form is clearly in the shape of inflation-protected bonds.

    While most investors are enthralled with the stock market, the bond market is THE most interesting investment market on the planet. After all, there are seemingly no limits as to what Wall Street can create. In effect, if Wall Street thinks they can convince someone to buy it, they’ll create it (look no further than the 2008 housing crisis).

    And one ‘different’ product from the bond market has actually stood the test of time, and that is the ‘Real Return Bond’. To begin, know that besides rising interest rates – the other giant monster that scares the crap out of bond managers is inflation.

    Since bond interest/coupon payments are usually fixed, any rise in inflation means the income from your bond can’t buy as much stuff as it could before. Therefore, inflation is bad for bonds and it causes bond prices to decline. To counter this, Wall Street created a bond that actually benefits from rising inflation. These Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) have been around now for over 20 years, and aside from short-term spikes in inflation, these bonds haven’t exactly set the world on fire.

    Until now.

    The narrative goes something like this – Donald Trump will dramatically cut taxes which means there will be dramatically more money available for spending, AND he will also borrow dramatically to spend even more money. While all of this spending is considered to be good for the economy and jobs, bond investors see it as creating a devastating surge in inflation. And since inflation is bad for regular bonds, it must be awesome for TIPS. This would be true if the world was experiencing a normal business and interest rate cycle.

    But since the world is not experiencing a normal business and interest rate cycle, we suggest investors be cautious or at least somewhat skeptical about a focus on TIPS. Should the geopolitical and economic world continue to trend as we expect, yes there will be inflation around the world – but not in the United States.

    Let us explain.

    There are 3 kinds of inflation:

    1. inflation caused by an increase in demand for certain things
    2. inflation caused by a decrease in supplies of certain things
    3. inflation caused by a currency moving sharply

    Investors who are trumpeting TIPS are clearly expecting inflation to rise due to #1.

    All else being equal, if there are no further disruptions across the political establishment, social tensions decline, zero and negative interest rates disappear, and European banks magically replace their bad loans and bad investments with new capital – then yes, TIPS will be a good investment. As you may sense, our view is different and TIPS investors should take notice. As the world continues to trend towards our outlook and forecast, our expectation for a surging USD will absolutely create inflation, but not in the United States.

    Instead, the surging USD will actually create deflation in the US making TIPS a not so good investment. Investors everywhere should know that the world does not work with an extremely strong USD. And unfortunately, the world continues to venture down the path that we have explained very clearly.

    A strong USD is negative for global growth, which means less demand for global goods and global services. The United States will not be immune and their exports will be affected – which is deflationary. As well, a strong USD makes foreign goods/services cheaper for people who own USD – this is also deflationary.

    The net effect of slower economic growth and a stronger USD therefore means less inflation for the United States which is not good for TIPS investors.

    Naturally, financial markets move in anticipation of something happening. And, since the bond world has suddenly realized their days in the sun are over – they will be tripping over themselves to climb onto to this next sure thing. Yes, this trade may work out for a while. However, as the world continues to move along as we expect, the USD will surge which will be good for some markets and not so good for other markets. Unfortunately for TIPS investors, financial markets will eventually anticipate this as well meaning they will be on the wrong side of this trade.

    Much more in the full report below

  • Is Obama A Russian Agent?

    Authored by Dmitry Orlov,

    Sometimes a case looks weak because there is no “smoking gun”—no obvious, direct evidence of conspiracy, malfeasance or evil intent—but once you tally up all the evidence it forms a coherent and damning picture. And so it is with the Obama administration vis à vis Russia: by feigning hostile intent it did everything possible to further Russia’s agenda. And although it is always possible to claim that all of Obama’s failures stem from mere incompetence, at some point this claim begins to ring hollow; how can he possibly be so utterly competent… at being incompetent? Perhaps he just used incompetence as a veil to cover his true intent, which was always to bolster Russia while rendering the US maximally irrelevant in world affairs. Let’s examine Obama’s major foreign policy initiatives from this angle.

    Perhaps the greatest achievement of his eight years has been the destruction of Libya. Under the false pretense of a humanitarian intervention what was once the most prosperous and stable country in the entire North Africa has been reduced to a rubble-strewn haven for Islamic terrorists and a transit point for economic migrants streaming into the European Union. This had the effect of pushing Russia and China together, prompting them to start voting against the US together as a block in the UN Security Council. In a single blow, Obama assured an important element of his legacy as a Russian agent: no longer will the US be able to further its agenda through this very important international body.

    Next, Obama presided over the violent overthrow of the constitutional government in the Ukraine and the installation of an American puppet regime there. When Crimea then voted to rejoin Russia, Obama imposed sanctions on the Russian Federation. These moves may seem like they were designed to hurt Russia, but let’s look at the results instead of the intentions.

    • First, Russia regained control of an important, strategic region.
    • Second, the sanctions and the countersanctions allowed Russia to concentrate on import replacement, building up the domestic economy. This was especially impressive in agriculture, and Russia now earns more export revenue from foodstuffs than from weapons.
    • Third, the severing of economic ties with the Ukraine allowed Russia to eliminate a major economic competitor.
    • Fourth, over a million Ukrainians decided to move to Russia, either temporarily or permanently, giving Russia a major demographic boost and giving it access to a pool of Russian-speaking skilled labor. (Most Ukrainians are barely distinguishable from the general Russian population.)
    • Fifth, whereas before the Ukraine was in a position to extort concessions from Russia by playing games with the natural gas pipelines that lead from Russia to the European Union, now Russia’s hands have been untied, resulting in new pipeline deals with Turkey and Germany.

    In effect, Russia reaped all the benefits from the Ukrainian stalemate, while the US gained an unsavory, embarrassing dependent.

    Obama’s next “achievement” was in carefully shepherding the Syrian conflict into a cul de sac. (Some insist on calling it a civil war, although virtually all of the fighting there has between the entire Syrian nation and foreign-funded outside mercenaries). To this end, Obama deployed an array of tactics. He simultaneously supported, armed, trained and fought various terrorist groups, making a joke of the usual US technique of using “terrorism by proxy.” He made ridiculous claims that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons against its own people, which immediately reminded everyone of similarly hollow claims about Saddam’s WMDs while offering Russia a legitimate role to play in resolving the Syrian conflict. He made endless promises to separate “moderate opposition” from dyed-in-the-wool terrorists, but repeatedly failed to do so, thus giving the Russians ample scope to take care of the situation as they saw fit. He negotiated several cease fires, then violated them.

    There have been other achievements as well. By constantly talking up the nonexistent “Russian threat” and scaremongering about “Russian aggression” and “Russian invasion” (of which no evidence existed), and by holding futile military exercises in Eastern Europe and especially in the geopolitically irrelevant Baltics, Obama managed to deprive NATO of any residual legitimacy it once might have had, turning it into a sad joke.

    But perhaps Obama’s most significant service on behalf of the Russian nation was in throwing the election to Donald Trump. This he did by throwing his support behind the ridiculously inept and corrupt Hillary Clinton. She outspent Trump by a factor of two, but apparently no amount of money could buy her the presidency. As a result of Obama’s steadfast efforts, the US will now have a Russia-friendly president who is eager to make deals with Russia, but will have to do so from a significantly weakened negotiating position.

    As I have been arguing for the last decade, it is a foregone conclusion that the United States is going to slide from its position of global dominance. But it was certainly helpful to have Obama grease the skids, and now it’s up to Donald Trump to finish the job. And since Obama’s contribution was especially helpful to Russia, I propose that he be awarded the Russian Federation’s Order of Friendship, to go with his Nobel Peace Prize.

  • America Has Unofficially Declared War On The Homeless

    Submitted by Josie Wales via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Police departments across the country have been ramping up raids on the homeless, stealing coats, blankets, and other personal items and leaving those on the street with no protection from the cold and rain.

    The Homelessness San Diego Facebook page recently posted a video of city workers conducting an “encampment sweep” that was recorded by homeless advocate Michael McConnell. According to CW6, “the city says it routinely posts clean-up notices downtown as part of its regular weekly abatement schedule.

    The Denver Police Department released a statement last Thursday evening defending police officers caught on video taking blankets, sleeping bags, and tents from homeless people and issuing some citations. Freezing temperatures didn’t stop the cold-hearted cops from confiscating the items “as evidence of the violations.

    The video taken by a bystander went viral after being shared by the ACLU of Colorado’s Facebook page. It was swiftly followed up by an open letter to Denver Mayor Michael Hancock, Denver City Council, and city officials. The letter, which expresses horror at the willingness of the local government officials to endanger the lives of the homeless, demands that the City immediately (1) direct its police officers to cease confiscation of blankets and other survival gear possessed by people experiencing homelessness, (2) suspend enforcement of the Denver Urban Camping Ban through the winter months, using that time to explore alternative approaches to homelessness that do not criminalize people for having nowhere they can afford to live and (3) end the coordinated sweeps of people experiencing homelessness, whether they are conducted through police, public works, private security, all of the above, or any other means.”

    This is not the first time Colorado authorities have come under fire for their brutal treatment of the homeless. In February of this year, Denver Law School released a report called Too High A Price: What Criminalizing Homelessness Costs Colorado, which examined the economic and social cost of the anti-homeless laws. According to the paper, “Laws that criminalize panhandling, begging, camping, sitting or lying in public, and vagrancy target and disproportionately impact homeless residents for activities they must perform in the course of daily living.”

    Los Angeles deployed an entire task force to crack down on homeless people, imposing their own “encampment sweeps” in September. The ironically named “Homeless Outreach and Proactive Engagement” teams are supposed to help reduce the number of people living on the street, but they appear to be doing nothing more than turning those who are less fortunate into criminals.

    The ACLU declared a small victory over the summer when it successfully defended the rights of a man charged with trespassing after trying to gain access to emergency shelter. According to Jessie Rossman, a staff attorney with the ACLU of Massachusetts:

    “Today’s landmark, unanimous ruling has affirmed, e.in the state high court’s own words that ‘our law does not permit the punishment of the homeless simply for being homeless.’”

    Anti-homeless laws are cruel, unconstitutional, and create more hardship for those targeted, making it harder for them to get back on their feet. It is unthinkable to believe that stealing blankets and clothing from people living on the street is justifiable by any legislation, and it is terrifying to see law enforcement follow orders to do so without blinking an eye.

  • Duterte: "I Will Burn Down The United Nations"

    The United Nations is making a lot of enemies.

    Yesterday, when the Obama administration refused to veto a UN vote over Isreal settlements, one which provoked Israel to lash out at the Obama administration saying “friends don’t act that way”, but more importantly defied Trump who in a previous tweet urged Obama to veto the resolution, the President-elect had one message, or rather tweet, to the UN:

    However, Trump is not the only one to hold a prominent grudge against the international organization, which many have accused of being nothing but an ineffective, if material, waste of taxpayer funds: taking Obama’s threat several steps further, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte threatened to “burn down” the United Nations headquarters in New York, in response to mounting international criticism over his bloody crackdown on suspected drug dealers.

    “You go and file a complaint in the United Nations, I will burn down the United Nations if you want,” Duterte said, quoted by the New York Times. “I will burn it down if I go to America,” he added during a speech at an army base in the country’s southern city of Zamboanga.

    Earlier in the week, Duterte called Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, a top UN official, an “idiot” and “son of a bitch” after the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights suggested launching an investigation into Duterte’s own accounts of killings when he was mayor of Davao City, and the “shocking” number of deaths during the ongoing anti-drug war.

    “This guy [Zeid] is ever the joker or crazy,” Duterte said during a televised speech, repeatedly calling him stupid. “You UN officials, sitting there on your asses, we pay you your salaries. You idiot, do not tell me what to do… Who gave you the right?” he said quoted by Reuters

    Needless to say, the UN does not appear to be very popular among the Philippines ruling elite.

    In September, the outspoken Philippines leader refused to meet UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, and even threatened to leave the UN after it criticized his ‘War on Drugs.’ A UN official told Reuters it was “basically unheard of” for a leader to be too busy to meet the secretary-general.

    More than 6,000 people have been killed as part of Duterte’s crackdown, a third by police and the rest still officially under investigation. Duterte says the shootings by police were in self-defence.

    Duterte’s “controversial” methods of cracking down on illegal drugs stem from his 22 years as mayor of Davao City. Last week, Duterte admitted he personally killed suspected criminals during his time as mayor of Davao City (the third most populous metropolitan area in the Philippines with more than 1.6 million inhabitants), patrolling the streets on a motorcycle.

    “In Davao I used to do it personally. Just to show to the guys [the police] that if I can do it, why can’t you,” Duterte said, as quoted by AFP.

    He added that he would “go around in Davao with a motorcycle, with a big bike around, and I would just patrol the streets, looking for trouble also. I was really looking for a confrontation so I could kill.”

    As for his parting shot at the UN’s employee and the overall organization, Duterte lashed out: “please shut up because your brain is lacking there,” he told Zeid.

    “Go back to school. You United Nations, you do not know diplomacy. You do not know how to behave to be an employee of the United Nations” adding “You do not talk to me like that, you son of a bitch.”

    And now, Trump seems to agree.

  • While Blaming Trump For "Arms Race", Obama Signs Momentous "Star Wars II" Defense Bill

    As politicians and mainstream media blast Trump's apparently incendiary tweet regarding nuclear arms, none other than President Obama just signed legislation that, by striking a single word from longstanding US nuclear defence policy, could heighten tensions with Russia and China and launch the country on an expensive effort to build space-based defense systems.

    Oh the irony… Following Trump's tweet…

    The mainstream media has lambasted the president-elect for "endangering the world" and "starting another nuclear arms race." However, that same mainstream media appears mute in their response to what President Obama just did…

    The National Defence Authorisation Act, a year-end policy bill encompassing virtually every aspect of the US military, contained two provisions with potentially momentous consequences. As AP reports,

    One struck the word “limited” from language describing the mission of the country’s homeland missile defence system. The system is said to be designed to thwart a small-scale attack by a non-superpower such as North Korea or Iran.

     

    A related provision calls for the Pentagon to start “research, development, test and evaluation” of space-based systems for missile defence.

     

    Together, the provisions signal that the US will seek to use advanced technology to defeat both small-scale and large-scale nuclear attacks.

     

    That could unsettle the decades-old balance of power among the major nuclear states.

     

    Huge bipartisan majorities in both houses of Congress approved the policy changes over the past month, with virtually no public debate.

     

    Although the White House had earlier criticised the changes, it stopped short of threatening a veto. On Friday, Obama signed the legislation.

    Leading defence scientists said the idea that a space-based system could provide security against nuclear attack is a fantasy…

    “It defies the laws of physics and is not based on science of any kind,” said L. David Montague, a retired president of missile systems for Lockheed and co-chair of a National Academy of Sciences panel that studied missile defence technologies at the request of Congress.

     

    “Even if we darken the sky with hundreds or thousands of satellites and interceptors, there’s no way to ensure against a dedicated attack,” Montague said in an interview. “So it’s an opportunity to waste a prodigious amount of money.”

     

    He called the provisions passed by Congress “insanity, pure and simple.”

     

    Republican Congressman Trent Franks, who introduced and shepherded the policy changes in the House, said he drew inspiration from former president Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defence Initiative of the 1980s, which was intended to use lasers and other space-based weaponry to render nuclear weapons “impotent and obsolete.” Known as “Star Wars”, the initiative cost taxpayers US$30 billion, but no system was ever deployed.

    Philip E. Coyle III, a former assistant secretary of defence who headed the Pentagon office responsible for testing and evaluating weapon systems, described the idea of a space-based nuclear shield as “a sham”.

    “To do this would cost just gazillions and gazillions,” Coyle said. “The technology isn’t at hand – nor is the money. It’s unfortunate from my point of view that the Congress doesn’t see that.”

     

    He added: “Both Russia and China will use it as an excuse to do something that they want to do.”

    Finally, when asked whether the country could afford it, Franks replied: “What is national security worth? It’s priceless."

    Priceless indeed.

    So who is "starting an arms race?"

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Today’s News 24th December 2016

  • Tucker Carlson Takes on Ivanka Trump Hater, Then Drops Mic on Her

    This wasn’t all that crazy, until the very end when he dimmed the lights and executed a fatality move on her. The look on her face was priceless.

    Watch the full vid for full effect, so that you can appreciate the fatality move all the more.

    I’m all about spreading the holiday cheer. Enjoy this with your families by the fireside.

     

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • This Is How The US Government Destroys The Lives Of Patriotic Whistleblowers

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    We live in a time and within a culture where the best amongst us are thrown in jail, demonized or destroyed, while the worst are celebrated, promoted and enriched. Nothing more clearly crystalizes this sad state of affairs than the U.S. government’s ruthless war on whistleblowers who expose severe constitutional violations by those in power. This war knows no political affiliation, and has be waged with equal vigor by the administrations of George W. Bush and Barack H. Obama.

    Earlier this morning, I read one of the most enlightening articles on the subject to-date. It was published back in May, and should be read by every single American citizen. We need to admit to ourselves what we have become before we can make changes.

    What follows are excerpts from the Guardian piece, How the Pentagon Punished NSA Whistleblowers, but you should really take the time to read the entire thing.

    If you want to know why Snowden did it, and the way he did it, you have to know the stories of two other men.

     

    The first is Thomas Drake, who blew the whistle on the very same NSA activities 10 years before Snowden did. Drake was a much higher-ranking NSA official than Snowden, and he obeyed US whistleblower laws, raising his concerns through official channels. And he got crushed.

     

    Drake was fired, arrested at dawn by gun-wielding FBI agents, stripped of his security clearance, charged with crimes that could have sent him to prison for the rest of his life, and all but ruined financially and professionally. The only job he could find afterwards was working in an Apple store in suburban Washington, where he remains today. Adding insult to injury, his warnings about the dangers of the NSA’s surveillance program were largely ignored.

     

    But there is another man whose story has never been told before, who is speaking out publicly for the first time here. His name is John Crane, and he was a senior official in the Department of Defense who fought to provide fair treatment for whistleblowers such as Thomas Drake – until Crane himself was forced out of his job and became a whistleblower as well.

     

    His testimony reveals a crucial new chapter in the Snowden story – and Crane’s failed battle to protect earlier whistleblowers should now make it very clear that Snowden had good reasons to go public with his revelations.

     

    During dozens of hours of interviews, Crane told me how senior Defense Department officials repeatedly broke the law to persecute Drake. First, he alleged, they revealed Drake’s identity to the Justice Department; then they withheld (and perhaps destroyed) evidence after Drake was indicted; finally, they lied about all this to a federal judge.

     

    “Name one whistleblower from the intelligence community whose disclosures led to real change – overturning laws, ending policies – who didn’t face retaliation as a result. The protections just aren’t there,” Snowden told the Guardian this week. “The sad reality of today’s policies is that going to the inspector general with evidence of truly serious wrongdoing is often a mistake. Going to the press involves serious risks, but at least you’ve got a chance.”

     

    “None of the lawful whistleblowers who tried to expose the government’s warrantless surveillance – and Drake was far from the only one who tried – had any success,” Devine told me. “They came forward and made their charges, but the government just said, ‘They’re lying, they’re paranoid, we’re not doing those things.’ And the whistleblowers couldn’t prove their case because the government had classified all the evidence. Whereas Snowden took the evidence with him, so when the government issued its usual denials, he could produce document after document showing that they were lying. That is civil disobedience whistleblowing.”

     

    Crane’s testimony is not simply a clue to Snowden’s motivations and methods: if his allegations are confirmed in court, they could put current and former senior Pentagon officials in jail. (Official investigations are quietly under way.)

     

    But Crane’s account has even larger ramifications: it repudiates the position on Snowden taken by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton – who both maintain that Snowden should have raised his concerns through official channels because US whistleblower law would have protected him…

     

    Within weeks of the September 11 attacks, Drake was assigned to prepare the NSA’s postmortem on the disaster. Congress, the news media and the public were demanding answers: what had gone wrong at the NSA and other federal agencies to allow Osama bin Laden’s operatives to conduct such a devastating attack?

     

    As Drake interviewed NSA colleagues and scoured the agency’s records, he came across information that horrified him. It appeared that the NSA – even before September 11 – had secretly revised its scope of operations to expand its powers.

     

    Since its inception, the NSA had been strictly forbidden from eavesdropping on domestic communications. Drake’s investigation persuaded him that the NSA was now violating this restriction by collecting information on communications within as well as outside of the United States. And it was doing so without obtaining legally required court orders.

     

    Drake’s descent into a nightmare of persecution at the hands of his own government began innocently. Having uncovered evidence of apparently illegal behaviour, he did what his military training and US whistleblower law instructed: he reported the information up the chain of command. Beginning in early 2002, he shared his concerns first with a small number of high-ranking NSA officials, then with the appropriate members of Congress and staff at the oversight committees of the US Senate and House of Representatives.

     

    Drake spent countless hours in these sessions but eventually came to the conclusion that no one in a position of authority wanted to hear what he was saying. When he told his boss, Baginski, that the NSA’s expanded surveillance following 9/11 seemed legally dubious, she reportedly told him to drop the issue: the White House had ruled otherwise.

     

    John Crane first heard about Thomas Drake when Crane and his colleagues at the Pentagon’s Office of the Inspector General received a whistleblower complaint in September 2002. The complaint alleged that the NSA was backing an approach to electronic surveillance that was both financially and constitutionally irresponsible. The complaint was signed by three former NSA officials, William Binney, Kirk Wiebe and Edward Loomis, and a former senior Congressional staffer, Diane Roark. Drake also endorsed the complaint – but because he, unlike the other four, had not yet retired from government service, he asked that his name be kept anonymous, even in a document that was supposed to be treated confidentially within the government.

     

    Binney, Wiebe, Loomis and Roark shared Drake’s concerns about the constitutional implications of warrantless mass surveillance, but their complaint focused on two other issues.

     

    The first was financial. The whistleblowers contended that the NSA’s surveillance programme, codenamed Trailblazer, was a shameful waste of $3.8 billion – it had been more effective at channelling taxpayer dollars to corporate contractors than at protecting the homeland.

    Of course it was.

    Second, the whistleblowers warned that Trailblazer actually made the US less secure. They acknowledged that Trailblazer had vastly expanded the amount of electronic communications NSA collected. But this avalanche of raw data was too much – it left NSA’s analysts struggling to distinguish the vital from the trivial and thus liable to miss key clues.

     

    Drake had discovered a shocking example while researching his postmortem report on the September 11 attacks. Months beforehand, the NSA had come into possession of a telephone number in San Diego that was used by two of the hijackers who later crashed planes into the World Trade Center. But the NSA did not act on this finding.

     

    As Drake later told the NSA expert James Bamford, the NSA intercepted seven phone calls between this San Diego phone number and an al-Qaida “safe house” in Yemen. Drake found a record of the seven calls buried in an NSA database.

     

    US officials had long known that the Yemen safe house was the operational hub through which Bin Laden, from a cave in Afghanistan, ordered attacks. Seven phone calls to such a hub from the same phone number was obviously suspicious. Yet the NSA took no action – the information had apparently been overlooked.

    Incredible.

    The Bush administration’s mass surveillance efforts were partly exposed in December 2005, when the New York Times published a front page article by reporters James Risen and Eric Lichtblau, which revealed that the NSA was monitoring international phone calls and emails of some people in the US without obtaining warrants.

     

    Eight years later, that story would be dwarfed by Snowden’s revelations. But at the time, the Bush White House was furious – and they were determined to find and punish whoever had leaked the details to the New York Times.

     

    According to Crane, his superiors inside the Pentagon’s Inspector General’s office were eager to help. Henry Shelley, the general counsel – the office’s top lawyer – urged that the IG office should tell the FBI agents investigating the Times leak about Drake and the other NSA whistleblowers.

    This Shelley character is a particularly heinous cretin in this entire saga.

    After all, the NSA whistleblowers’ recent complaint had objected to the same surveillance practices described in the Times article – which made them logical suspects in the leak. Crane objected strenuously. Informing anyone – much less FBI investigators – of a whistleblower’s name was illegal.

     

    After debating the matter at a formal meeting in the personal office of the inspector general, Shelley and Crane continued arguing in the hallway outside. “I reached into my breast pocket and pulled out my copy of the Whistleblower Protection Act,” Crane recalled. “I was concerned that Henry was violating the law. Our voices weren’t raised, but the conversation was, I would say, very intense and agitated. Henry [replied] that he was the general counsel, the general counsel was in charge of handling things with the Justice Department and he would do things his way.”

     

    There the disagreement between Crane and Shelley stalled. Or so it seemed until 18 months later. On the morning of 26 July, 2007, FBI agents with guns drawn stormed the houses of Binney, Wiebe, Loomis and Roark. Binney was towelling off after a shower when agents accosted him; he and his wife suddenly found themselves with guns aimed directly between their eyes, the retired NSA man recalled.

     

    Crane smelled a rat. The investigation that his staff had conducted into the whistleblowers’ complaint had been highly classified: very few people could have known their names, and they would have been inside the IG’s office. After the raids, Crane confronted Shelley and demanded to know whether the IG’s office had given the names to the FBI. Shelley refused to discuss the matter, Crane says.

     

    The battle soon escalated. Four months later, FBI agents stormed Drake’s house in an early morning raid, as his family watched in shock.

     

    After Drake was indicted in 2010, his lawyers filed a Freedom of Information Act request to obtain documents related to the investigation Crane’s office had conducted into the claims of the NSA whistleblowers. According to Crane, he was ordered by his superiors in the IG’s office to delay releasing any documents – which could have exonerated Drake – until after the trial, which was expected to take place later in 2010.

     

    Crane alleges that he was ordered to do so by Shelley and Lynne Halbrooks – who had recently been named the principal deputy inspector general (in other words, the second-highest ranking official in the IG’s office). Crane protested but lost this skirmish as well. (Halbrooks did not respond to repeated requests for an interview.)

     

    Crane was at once alarmed and revolted. The complaint from Drake’s lawyers seemed to confirm his suspicion that someone in the IG’s office had illegally fingered Drake to the FBI. Worse, the indictment filed against Drake had unmistakable similarities to the confidential testimony Drake had given to Crane’s staff – suggesting that someone in the IG’s office had not simply given Drake’s name to the FBI, but shared his entire testimony, an utter violation of law.

     

    Drake’s complaint demanded investigation, Crane told Halbrooks. But Halbrooks, joined by Shelley, allegedly rejected Crane’s demand. She added that Crane wasn’t being a “good team player” and if he didn’t shape up, she would make life difficult for him.

     

    But there was even worse to come. As Drake’s trial approached in the spring of 2011, Crane knew that the law required the IG’s office to answer the retaliation complaint filed by Drake’s lawyers. But, Crane says, Shelley now informed him it would be impossible to respond – because the relevant documents had been destroyedLower level staff “fucked up”, Crane said Shelley told him: they had shredded the documents in a supposedly routine purge of the IG’s vast stores of confidential material.

     

    Crane could not believe his ears. “I told Henry that destruction of documents under such circumstances was, as he knew, a very serious matter and could lead to the inspector general being accused of obstructing a criminal investigation.” Shelley replied, according to Crane, that it didn’t have to be a problem if everyone was a good team player.

     

    On 15 February, 2011, Shelley and Halbrooks sent the judge in the Drake case a letter that repeated the excuse given to Crane: the requested documents had been destroyed, by mistake, during a routine purge. This routine purge, the letter assured Judge Richard D Bennett, took place before Drake was indicted.

     

    “Lynne and Henry had frozen me out by then, so I had no input into their letter to Judge Bennett,” Crane said. “So they ended up lying to a judge in a criminal case, which of course is a crime.”

     

    With Drake adamantly resisting prosecutors’ pressure to make a plea deal – “I won’t bargain with the truth,” he declared – the government eventually withdrew most of its charges against him. Afterwards, the judge blasted the government’s conduct. It was “extraordinary”, he said, that the government barged into Drake’s home, indicted him, but then dropped the case on the eve of trial as if it wasn’t a big deal after all. “I find that unconscionable,” Bennett added. “Unconscionable. It is at the very root of what this country was founded on … It was one of the most fundamental things in the bill of rights, that this country was not to be exposed to people knocking on the door with government authority and coming into their homes.”

     

    We are now becoming a police state,” Diane Roark said in a 2014 television interview. Referring to herself and the other NSA whistleblowers, she added, “We are the canaries in the coal mine. We never did anything wrong. All we did was oppose this programme. And for that, they just ran over us.”

     

    “They’re saying, ‘We’re doing this to protect you,’” Roark’s fellow whistleblower William Binney told me. “I will tell you that that’s exactly what the Nazis said in Special Order 48 in 1933 – we’re doing this to protect you. And that’s how they got rid of all of their political opponents.”

     

    These are strong statements – comparing the actions of the US government to Nazi Germany, warning of an emerging “police state” – so it’s worth remembering who made them. The NSA whistleblowers were not leftwing peace nuts. They had spent their professional lives inside the US intelligence apparatus – devoted, they thought, to the protection of the homeland and defence of the constitution.

     

    They were political conservatives, highly educated, respectful of evidence, careful with words. And they were saying, on the basis of personal experience, that the US government was being run by people who were willing to break the law and bend the state’s awesome powers to their own ends. They were saying that laws and technologies had secretly been put in place that threatened to overturn the democratic governance Americans took for granted and shrink their liberties to a vanishing point. And they were saying that something needed to be done about all this before it was too late.

    Let’s all make a resolution to do whatever we can to alter this situation and restore constitutional values to the land. Let’s also give thanks to all the incredibly courageous American patriots who have been relentlessly and despicably persecuted by their government.

  • Irrational Exuberance in US Stock Market Grasps at 20K for Dow

    This article by David Haggith was first published on The Great Recession Blog:

    Celebrate because the Epocalypse is here!

    Since Trump’s election, the US stock market has climbed unstoppably along a remarkably steep path to round off at a teetering height. Is this the irrational exuberance that typically marks the last push before a perilous plunge, or is the market reaching escape velocity from the relentless gravity of the Great Recession? 

    This burst of enthusiasm in response to Trump’s victory, flew in the face of almost everyone’s predictions. That it lifted the market from seven months of languor certainly makes 20K on the Dow look like the elevation marker of a breathtaking summit.

    While breaking 20k, if it happens, may be as meaningless as one more mile on the odometer when all the numbers roll over, it is psychologically potent for many. Breaking through it, could cause fear as eyes turn down and see how far below the earth now is, or the rarified air up here may bring euphoria that lifts the market to even greater levels on a rising current of hot air.

    Investors have been buying and selling with as much frenzy as Christmas shoppers. Now there will be much eating and drinking to celebrate this record-setting Santa-Clause rally, even if it doesn’t top 20, before Christmas, as investors take a brief rest to enjoy their surprise gains, fat and happy in belief that 2017 will be a prosperous new year.

    There is almost no evidence of fear amongst all the cheer. According to Gallop, economic confidence has never been higher in the general population. Some are calling it Trumphoria as people seem to be relieved that eight years of Obamanomics are ending, and business is seizing the reins of government, guided by one of the world’s richest and most dazzling developers.

     

    The first positive double-digit index score since the inception of Gallup Daily tracking in 2008 reflects a stark change in Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy from the negative views they expressed in most weeks over the past nine years.

     

    A similar CNBC survey indicates this is the greatest breath of fresh air for consumer confidence since Obama was elected in 2008, and it is not just stocks that are soaring. The US dollar has reached its highest peak in fourteen years. TechonoMetrica also says consumer confidence has just hit its highest level since 2006 (just in time for Christmas shopping).

     

    The surge in consumer confidence is primarily due to a collective sense of relief among Americans over the conclusion of the contentious 2016 presidential election season, as well as a feeling of hope regarding the prospect of a new administration taking office…. Consumers are ecstatic that the election is finally over.

     

     

    Will this exuberant ride continue in 2017?

     

    Many analysts believe the push through a major milestone, if it happens, confirms a strong new market trend; but what does history say about breaking past such major psychological resistance barriers? When the Dow first broke past the 100 level in 1916, it tumbled below the line immediately and then sputtered along that ceiling for almost ten years. It didn’t break through with any continuance again until the mid 20s! When the Dow flirted with the 1,000 mark for the first time in 1966, it tumbled down and again stumbled along near that ceiling for seven years. When it finally passed it at the end of 1972, it did continue a tiny ways higher; but in less than three months the market fell for the next two years, eventually plumbing a depth 44% lower, while the nation sank into recession. The Dow didn’t permanently break through 1,000 again until 1982! And, after the Dow broke major, major milestone of 10,000 in 1999, it made it about 10% above that and then fell about 30% from 2001 to 2003 in what became known as the dot-com crash.

    What if we look at what history has to say about irrational exuberance by using other measures than the Dow? The ratio of stock prices against corporate earnings is one of the most common ways of assessing the relative height of a market peak. Here again, there are only a few times in history that the S&P 500 has climbed to prices that are 27.9 times more than corporate earnings of the last ten years, which is where the S&P stands now. Once was in 1929 just before the Great Depression, then again in an ill-fated boom of the 60’s, and only one other time in 2002.

    The altimeter I’m using here to assess our present peak is called the CAPE (the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio that won Yale’s Robert Schiller his Nobel Prize). In market terms, our present mark on the gauge means we’re entering the stratosphere! Even in 2007, the market was not this overpriced by the CAPE’s measure, and irrational exuberance has always accompanied this level: (Some will argue otherwise, but hang with me a minute.)

     

    Early 1929 was actually a fantastic time to get into the US stock market — so long as you didn’t stick around. So were the late 1990s. Someone who sold their stocks in late 1996, when the CAPE hit 28, missed out on the biggest free-money bubble bonanza in recorded history…. Nonetheless … over the past 150 years, it has generally been an extremely poor move to invest in U.S. stocks with the CAPE at these levels. (Market watch)

     

    Not everyone thinks passing this mark on the CAPE matters. In fact, apparently many don’t, or the stock market wouldn’t have kept climbing into the CAPE’s red zone this month, but according to Valentin Dimitrov of Rutgers University and Prem Jain of Georgetown, the measure has been applied too simplistically by those who disregard it:

     

    In a nutshell: Investors shouldn’t flee stocks simply because the Shiller PE is above average. They shouldn’t flee stocks even when the Shiller PE is way above average. But history has said they should flee stocks when the Shiller PE is at extreme levels — like now. Only when the CAPE is “higher than 27.6”, they conclude, has the stock market proven to be a really bad investment. (Marketwatch)

     

    It is, however, not just the height of this peak, but the rate of rise that evidences irrational exuberance. This month, the US stock roller coaster ratcheted its way relentlessly up its highest hill one clanky link at a time. If the Dow closes above 20,000 this week, it will be the fastest 1,000-point rise in market history! The previous record rate of rise came in 1999 in the run-up to the dot-com bubble crash. Of course, the higher the market is, the less meaningful a thousand-point rise is.

     

    Do these graphs look like irrational exuberance?

     

    Sometimes a visual says more than words:

     

     

    Irrational exuberance in stock market?

    Fastest, longest rise of the Dow in the past two years. Irrational exuberance?

     

     

     

    Notice that it is not just prices that have shot up. Sometimes prices soar while trading volume treads flatly. In other words, there are very few traders, but those that are buying are willing to pay more. This time, trading volume has gone astronomical (lower part of graph) as money floods  into stocks. That means it’s a flurry of high-stakes trading. The last time we saw this kind of trading volume was …

     

     

     

    Irrational exuberance in stock market seen in steepest rise and highest volume in a decade

    Is the steepest climb in a decade irrational exuberance, particularly when accompanied by the highest trading volume since the Great Recession began?

     

     

    Yes, the last time trading volume (lower graph) reached this frenzy was in 2008 and 2009 when we experienced the greatest stock market crash since the Great Depression. And look how long and steep the post-Trump rally (right end of upper graph) looks compared to any other climb during the past decade, including the run-up to the Great Recession. It’s almost a straight-up wall!

     

    How irrationally exuberant are investors right now?

     

    Forget about measures for a moment, let’s look at forecasts by the revered experts in the industry because if everyone is running with glee in the same direction …

     

    Some market experts are espousing an unequivocally bullish outlook for equities. That level of enthusiasm was on full display after Robert Doll, Nuveen Asset Management’s chief equity strategist, on Wednesday said he was “fully invested” in the market. Asked by one CNBC reporter if he recommended keeping any cash holdings … Doll had this to say: Hold cash? “What for? Market’s going up!” (Marketwatch)

     

    Clearly, Doll sees no top to the hill in sight. Apparently neither do others: in spite of our present nose-bleed heights, Wall Street’s gauge of investor fear, the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, rests comfortably at a 16-month low. Seems almost no one sees any reason for concern at all.

    Lance Roberts writes,

     

    Over this past weekend, Barron’s Magazine published its big story the “2017 Market Outlook….” After 8-years of a bull market advance not one of the forecasters had a “bearish” outlook. In fact, as the article concludes: “If all goes smoothly, our experts’ forecasts might even prove too tepid. The old bull isn’t ready to call it quits yet….” Of course, since it is rising asset prices which drives their business – being “bullish” is good for business…. However … it is extremes in both “psychology” and “behaviors” that tend to give us the best indications as to future outcomes. The legendary Bob Farrell had two rules specifically relating to today’s topic. The first was … “When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.”

     

    Barron’s panel of ten experts (from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Citi, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Blackrock and others) were unanimous in their cheer that the US stock market will ascend well beyond its present record heights.

    But, if everything is so rosy, Wolf Richter asks, why are bank insiders and big industrials selling their own company’s stocks faster than ever: (Someone has to be selling for all that buying to happen.)

     

    Why are insiders at banks and industrial companies selling their shares as if there were no tomorrow? Banks had a blistering run. The shares of Wells Fargo, the most hated bank in America these days, soared 28% over the past 30 days, Citigroup 25%, JP Morgan 26%, Goldman Sachs, which is successfully placing its people inside the Trump administration, 37%. It has surged 50% since the end of October…. But high-ranking insiders have been dumping their shares faster than at any time in the data going back to 2003. These executives are considered the “smart money.”

     

    Have market insiders just lost their appetite for dizzying heights, or do they have reason to believe they are selling into the stock market’s last hurrah? Are their banks, perhaps, getting clobbered by the bond crisis that is now developing on the other side of all this trading?

    Even the Wall Street Journal, notes Richter, saw this high-volume trading as a bullish sign. They couldn’t, however, say why it was bullish, but only that it might be profit-taking. Well, why take profits now if you’re confident your bank has room to run? Is WSJ’s bullish note just more irrational exuberance from all market experts who can smell nothing but roses since Trump’s victory?

     

    This is how BofA’s Michael Hartnett explains it: Wall St. is bullish: expectations of “above trend” growth at five-year highs … global inflation expectations at second highest % since Jun 2004 … global bank stock positioning has hit record highs. (Zero Hedge)

     

    Bonds are smarter … and far from exuberant

     

    One old adage says that bond traders are the smart money. Money is now fleeing bonds at a record rate of fall that matches the record rate of rise we are seeing in the stock market. Bond money has to go somewhere; so, it could easily be that stocks are going up less because of Trumphoria and more because of bond phobia, triggered by Trump.  Fear of what could easily turn into the biggest bond-bubble crash in the history of the world makes stocks look like the safest haven.

    The global realization that central banks are not so enthusiastic about additional stimulus anymore, has bond investor’s realizing that the longest bull market in bond history may finally be waning. At the same time Trump’s plan of spending somewhere between half a trillion and one trillion dollars on infrastructure investments (financed on national credit) means interest rates will have to rise in order to attract enough creditors, which they are already doing in anticipation. In many nations, investors’ money is trapped in bonds near zero-percent interest. Knowing higher interest on new bonds is almost inevitable now, these investors want to get their money out of current bonds. Even in the US, who wants to be stuck in bonds at 2.5% for ten years when two to three years from now, interest may be at 5%?

    The prevalent thinking is that Trump’s credit-card spending spree will heat the economy with numerous new jobs, and those new jobs will raise wages in order to attract enough workers. The increased demand for great amounts of materials will also drive up the cost of materials for everyone. The combination of many more workers flush with new cash and rising demand for materials means inflation will rise significantly; and inflation eats away at the value of money stored in bonds. So, one more reason to exit bonds. Goldman Sachs believes the main effect from fiscal stimulus this late in the employment recovery curve will be to drive up interest and inflation.

    In my view, all of that means the Fed’s statement that it will be raising interest more often next year is now irrelevant. I said that before the Fed’s last meeting, and I think we see it is true in the stock market’s relative indifference to what the Fed said. Interest rates are already rising everywhere in the US economy, regardless of the Fed’s target. So, the Fed is clearly failing to accomplish anything with its stated target rate because the market is finally taking over and driving interest. That is why it was easy for the Fed to say it will increase its number of rate increases. I suspect its stated target will play catchup all year in 2017 to what the market is already doing with interest rates.

    So the bond bull is breaking; but that break can cause major bond funds to wind up in liquidity traps where they cannot pay off investors who want out fast enough because the more they sell bonds that people don’t want anyway to raise cash and pay out investors, the more they have to lower the price to make a sale, driving down the value of the bonds they continue to hold, causing more investors to want out. The breaking of the longest and highest bond bull market in history could become a financial vortex, and bond values have already been falling at their fastest rate in history.

    David Gundlach, the bond king who manages the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, sees trouble if bonds get about half a percent higher than they are today:

     

    We’re getting to the point where further rises in Treasurys, certainly above 3 percent, would start to have a real impact on market liquidity in corporate bonds and junk bonds…. Also, a 10-year Treasury above 3 percent in my view starts to bring into question some of the aspects of the stock market and of the housing market in particular. (Newsmax)

     

    If bond funds go bust, they will likely take banks and retirement funds and ultimately the whole economy down with them, since almost everyone has been parking large amounts of money in bond funds because they are typically viewed as safe havens in uncertain times. If all of that goes down, the stock market likely does, too. It’s hard to see how it wouldn’t. It’s always been hard for me to see which would go first in the next big drop back into the Great Recession because both look so dangerous, and it is still hard to say. Will the insolvency of bond funds wipe out some banks and hedge fund managers, taking their stocks down to nothing, or will irrational exuberance in the stock market give way to panic? Right now, it appears to me that bonds will lead the crash.

    Of course, I predicted the Epocalypse of 2016, so you might not want to listen to me. (Though I did say it might not happen until after the election when the Fed gives up and lets Trump take the fall.) I also predicted a second plunge in the price of oil in 2016, and that didn’t happen either. My predictions for 2016 were apparently badly off (at least in timing) for the first time in almost a decade. I started writing regularly on eonomics after predicting the crash of the housing market nearly to the month back in 2007, which I said would quickly become an enduring global catastrophe, the likes of which few people alive had ever seen.

    That said, I anticipate the remainder of this December will go something like last year’s transition into the new year where the market crashed in the manner I said it would by going up first (due to euphoria that the Fed’s interest rate increase didn’t bring down the house), then rounds off and then falls off a cliff; but we’ll see. I’m not certain of that this year, as I was last year, and the fall off the cliff last year was not as severe as I thought it would be … though it was the worst January in the history of the stock market. This year, the euphoria is MUCH higher, so the fall could be much greater and be the kind that I anticipated for 2016.

     

    Is it irrational for stocks to rise due to betting on the Trump card?

     

    It could be. Consider that the entire marketplace began shifting overnight out of bonds and into stocks when Trump won, and it’s still shifting like a huge landslide. What if it repositions to this large degree, and then Trump changes his positions … again? As a matter of fact, he’s already started to backpedal from his infrastructure pledge just as he has been doing from almost all of his stated campaign pledges since being elected:

     

    Trump made rebuilding the nation’s aging roads, bridges and airports very much part of his job-creation strategy in the presidential race. But lately lobbyists have begun to fear that there won’t be an infrastructure proposal at all, or at least not the grand plan they’d been led to expect…. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell tried to tamp down expectations last week, telling reporters he wants to avoid “a $1 trillion stimulus.” And Reince Priebus, who will be Trump’s chief of staff, said in a radio interview that the new administration will focus in its first nine months with other issues… He sidestepped questions about the infrastructure plan. In a post-election interview with The New York TimesTrump himself seemed to back away, saying infrastructure won’t be a “core” part of the first few years of his administration…. He acknowledged that he didn’t realize during the campaign that New Deal-style proposals to put people to work building infrastructure might conflict with his party’s small-government philosophy. “That’s not a very Republican thing — I didn’t even know that, frankly,” he said. (Newsmax)

     

    Seriously? Wow! How could he not know this, given that Republicans have resisted doing any infrastructure stimulus plans for eight years? He is either scarily out of touch if he didn’t realize he’d have a fight from the Republican congress, or this statement is proof that Trump was a Trojan horse from the beginning. This is a remarkably rapid turn from the New-Big-Deal plan that Steve Bannon advocated as being the economy’s salvation, given that Trump is not even in office yet.

    We could have one wild roller coaster ride in 2017 since the market is entirely repositioning itself toward Trump’s infrastructure pledge if that plan takes a few years to come about or doesn’t make it through congress at all … or maybe doesn’t even get presented. It certainly never had a chance of making it through congress unless Trump pushed hard and leveraged his campaign victory toward that end, and the above statements don’t sound like Trump has any push left!

    Zero Hedge recently reported on growing Republican resistance to Trump’s tax and infrastructure plans:

     

    [In an article titled] “A “Big Problem” Emerges For Trump’s Economic Plan” … we reported that while the market may (still) be blissfully unaware about the emerging conflict between Trump’s debt-fueled vision for the future, Republican politicians had started to notice…. Republican lawmakers warned “that there could be a major obstacle to enacting President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda: the national debt.” “I was disappointed that it wasn’t brought up in the campaign,…” Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) said of deficits and debt. “So I’m very concerned about it. It’s going to be tough to address if there’s no push from outside of the Congress,” he added. “I’m very concerned about it. It’s the biggest problem we face, by far.”

     

    Rapidly rising interest rates already mean the infrastructure program will become much harder to finance. If Trump waits three years to get seriously started, interest rates could make the plan nearly impossible, plus he will likely have expended all his political capital that comes from a surprise election victory, which will be ancient news by then. He will need that capital to get the plan through a reluctant congress.

    Rising interest rates already mean the mammoth national debt that came about as the result of the Great Recession will become much harder to finance over the next few years, even without taking out another trillion for new infrastructure. So, that will be a new and serious burden on the economy unless so much money flees Europe to bond and stock safety in the US that we’re saved by dumb luck … as once again being the best horse in the glue factory.

    So, is the stock market irrational in its exuberance for shifting so much just because of Trump’s pledges, which are far, far from becoming reality? I think so. I haven’t even talked about Democrat resistance to Trump’s plans, and he’s already got resistance from the Republican leader of the senate. He is already fading back on his own push for the plan … before he is even in office. He has faded back on almost everything he has promised.

    So, I think it is extremely irrational for the market to completely reposition from bonds to stocks — especially banking stocks — when Trump is hedging his words on all of his pledges … backpedaling hard on immigration enforcement and on putting Hillary in jail and now even on infrastructure spending.

    David Rosenberg, chief investment strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., agrees:

     

    The bullish run “probably can get extended into the new year,” but “we’ve just taken a very big leg up here, and levels of sentiment, levels of market positioning and levels of valuation do have me a bit worried that if we see any disappointment at all, it could lead to the sort of pullback we had last year….” Rosenberg calls current valuation levels “extreme.” (Newsmax)

     

     

    1929 stock market crash

    Gathering around the stock ticker in the US stock market crash of 1929.

     

    That doesn’t mean the market won’t keep going up. Who knows what the maximum height or duration of irrational exuberance is (because who knows how crazy people can get); but I am certain of this much: the higher stock market rockets upward on such irrationality, the harder it falls into the chasm of ever-growing debt from which it has been constructed. NO significant economic reforms have happened since the start of the Great Recession. There has been no significant improvement in corporate earnings, just a lot of expanded debt to buy back shares in order to improve Price-Earning ratios, which still look terrible. The entire market is but a poof of speculative hot air.

    But, for the time being, Merry Christmas. If you’re not heavily invested in stocks or bonds, raise a glass of cheer and party on because you have less to fear. There is nothing you’re going to do that can stop the markets (in stocks and bonds) from having their hangover when the bubbly stuff is over and irrational exuberance suddenly looks like delirium. Our greatest economic crashes have always happened when least expected.

  • Hillary Voters Ate Their Feelings On November 9th – Cheesecake Orders Surged 72%

    On Novemer 9, 2016, America’s pampered, Hillary-supporting snowflakes chose to express their complete devastation in a variety of ways.  Some took to the streets to riot and burn down entire city blocks of private property…

     

    …Lena Dunham, in a letter entitled “Don’t Agonize, Organize,” gave us excruciating details of how she simply lay in the shower “crying,” “mumbling incoherently” and “clutching herself”…which is way more than any of us needed to know.

    By the time we’d made it over the bridge, a friend called. “It’s over,” she said. “I love you.” I was frozen. We stopped at the diner. No one was speaking as they ate, no one in the whole place.

     

    At home I got in the shower and began to cry even harder. My boyfriend, who had already wept, watched me as I mumbled incoherently, clutching myself. “It wasn’t supposed to go this way. It was supposed to be her job. She worked her whole life for the job. It’s her job.”

    Lena Dunham

     

    Still others wandered aimlessly in the Arizona desert on shroom-induced “vision quests” seeking guidance from the “big red rock”oh wait, that was Lena Dunham too.  Oh well, you get the idea.

    Lena

     

    Finally, new evidence from the calorie counting app, Lose It!, and meal-ordering app, Caviar, suggest that the majority of America’s disaffected millennial democrats simply lay in bed eating their feelings. 

    According to the CEO of Lose It!, the number of active users going to the gym on the Wednesday after election day this year declined by over 4x the typical mid-week decline.  Per Bloomberg:

    So they did what Americans do best: They ate. And ate. And ate.

     

    Lose It!, a calorie counting app that helps users track their daily food intake, says there’s always a Tuesday to Wednesday drop-off of active users, as dieters lose motivation they had earlier in the week. (Ever notice how the gym is always more crowded on Monday?) But something funny happened the Wednesday after Election Day. The drop-off rate was four times as much as usual.

     

    “There was definitely a post-election slump,” said Charles Teague, chief executive officer of Lose It!. The company doesn’t record its users’ political leanings, but it says 75.8 percent are female and 77 percent are aged from 18 to 44—demographics that swung to Clinton.

    Meanwhile, meal-ordering app Caviar, which operates in 15 urban markets like Boston, New York and Seattle that all swayed massively towards Hillary, said that orders of cheesecake, pie and ice cream surged 72% the day after Hillary lost.

    Meanwhile, orders for desserts such as cheesecake, pie, and ice cream were up 72 percent on Caviar, a meal-ordering app operating in 15 urban markets, including Boston, New York, Dallas, and Seattle. Clinton also carried cities with 50,000 residents or more with a strong margin, even in deep-red Texas.

    On the bright side, unintentional pregnancies collapsed in the days following November 8th.

    Eating Feelings

  • Geopolitics, Globalization, And World Order: Part 1

    Submitted by Federico Pieraccini via Strategic-Culture.org,

    Understanding the objectives and logic that accompany the expansion of nations or empires is always of paramount importance in helping one draw lessons for the future

    In this series of four articles I intend to lay a very detailed but easily understandable foundation for describing the mechanisms that drive great powers. To succeed, one must analyze the geopolitical theories that over more than a century have contributed to shaping the relationship between Washington and other world powers. Secondly, it is important to expound on how Washington’s main geopolitical opponents (China, Russia and Iran) have over the years been arranging a way to put a stop to the intrusive and overbearing actions of Washington. Finally, it is important to take note of the possibly significant changes in American foreign policy doctrine that have been occurring over the last twenty years, especially how the new Trump administration intends to change course by redefining priorities and objectives.

    The first analysis will therefore focus on the international order, globalization, geopolitical theories, their translations into modern concepts, and what controlling a country’s sovereignty means.

    Before examining geopolitical theories, it is important to understand the effects of globalization and the changing international order it entails, a direct consequence of US strategy that seeks to control every aspect of the economic, political and cultural decisions made by foreign countries, usually applying military means to achieve this objective.

    Globalization and the International Order

    It is important to first define the international order among nations before and after the collapse of the Berlin wall, especially focusing on the consequences of existing in a globalized world.

    For the first half of the twentieth century the world found itself fighting two world wars, then, during the Cold War, lasting from 1945 to 1989, the balance of power maintained by the US and USSR held the prospect of a third world war at bay. With the dissolution of the USSR, the United States, the only remaining world superpower, thought it could aspire to absolute domination over the globe, as was famously expressed through the Project for A New American Century. Putting aside for a moment perpetual wars, one of the key strategies towards fulfilling this objective was the so-called experiment of globalization, applied especially in trade, economics and finance, all of course driven by American interests.

    Having achieved victory in the Cold War over its socialist rival, the world went from a capitalist system to a turbo-charged capitalist system. US corporations, thanks to this model of world globalized economy, have experienced untold riches, such as Apple and other IT corporations generating amounts of cash flow equivalent to that of small countries.

    Banks and US financial institutions such as Wall Street incrementally increased their already considerable influence over foreign nations thanks to the rise of computer technology, automation and accounting deceptions such as derivatives, just to give one example. The FED implemented policies that took advantage of the role of the dollar in the globalized economy (the dollar is the premier world reserve currency). Over the years this has caused economic crises of all kinds all over the world, defrauding the entire economic system, consisting of schemes such as being able to print money at will, allowing for the financing massive wars, even going so far as lowering interest rates to 0% to keep banks and big corporations from failing – all a repudiation of the most basic rules of capitalism. All this was made possible because the US being the sole world power after 1989, allowing Washington to write the rules of the game in its favor.

    Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Wall Street, Big Oil and military corporations, health-care providers, the insurance and agricultural industries slowly replaced national governments, managing to dictate agendas and priorities. A political form of globalization has led to an expropriation of national sovereignty in Europe, with the creation of the Euro and the Lisbon Treaty signed by all EU nations in 2007.

    Globalization has forced the concept of sovereign states directed by their citizens to be replaced with an international superstructure led by the United States, driving away even more citizens from the decision-making process. The European Union, and in particular the European Commission (not elected, but appointed), is unpopular not only for the decisions it has taken but also for the perception that it is an imposter making important decisions without ever having been elected.

    Basically, with the end of the USSR, the international order went from a relationship between states made up of citizens to a relationship between international superstructures (NATO, UN, IMF, WTO, World Bank, EU) and citizens, with the weight of the balance of power decisively in favor of the globalists with the economic burden resting on the people.

    The international order and globalization are therefore to be interpreted according to the logic of Washington, always looking for new ways to dominate the globe, preserving its role of world superpower.

    It is also for this reason that it is important to understand some geopolitical theories that underlie US strategic decisions in the pursuit of world domination. These theories are some of the most important with which Washington has, over the last 70 years, tried to pursue total domination of the planet.

    MacKinder + Spykman + Mahan = World Domination

    Heartland

    The first geopolitical theory is the so-called Heartland theory, drawn up in 1904 by English geographer Sir Halford Mackinder. The basic principle was the following:

    «Heartland or Heartlands (literally: the Heart of the Earth) is a name that was given to the central zone of the Eurasian continent, corresponding roughly to Russia and the neighboring provinces, by Sir Halford Mackinder, the English geographer and author of Democratic Ideals and Reality; the Heartlands of the theory was submitted to the Royal Geographical Society in 1904.

     

    The Heartland was described by Mackinder as the area bounded to the west by the Volga, the Yangtze River to the east, from the Arctic to the north and south from the western Himalayas. At the time, this area was almost entirely controlled by the Russian Empire.

     

    For Mackinder, who based his theory on the geopolitical opposition between land and sea, Heartland was the "heart" button of all the earth civilization, because logistically unapproachable by any thalassocracy. Hence the phrase that sums up the whole concept of Mackinder’s geopolitics: ‘Who controls East Europe commands the Heartland: Who controls the Heartland commands the World-Island: Who controls the World-Island commands the world’».

    In terms of countries, the Heartland consists mainly of Russia, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Mongolia, the Central Asian countries, and parts of Iran, China, Belarus and Ukraine.

    Rimland

    The second geopolitical theory, another important lodestar for US foreign policy, was developed in the 1930s by the American Nicholas J. Spykman, also a student of geography as well as a scholar of MacKinder’s theory. Spykman, thanks to advancing naval technology, added to the definition of the Heartland theory the Rimland theory. The Rimland is divided into four main areas: Europe, North Africa, Middle East and Asia.

    «For ‘world island’ it means the Eurasian region, ranging from Western Europe to the Far East. If for Mackinder the Tsarist empire represents the aforesaid area-pin, Spykman instead focuses on the area around Heartland, i.e. Rimland, recognizing it as a strategic point of great importance. The Rimland is characterized by the presence of rich countries, technologically advanced, with great availability of resources and easy access to the seas. Its size at the same time makes sea and land attacked by both sides. On the other hand this means that its dual nature as a possible mediating zone between the two world powers: the United States and Russia. The greatest threat from the geopolitical point of view lies in the union between Heartland and Rimland under one power».

    The Rimland essentially consists of Europe (including eastern Europe), Turkey, the Middle East, the Gulf States, India, Pakistan, Southeast Asia (Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines*, Thailand, Vietnam) and Japan.

    As one can see from observing a map, the United States is not physically close to either the Rimland or the Heartland. They are both on the other side of two 6,000-mile oceans. The US is undeniably protected in this way, almost impervious to attack, with an abundance of resources and powerful allies in Europe. These are all characteristics that have favored the rise of the American superpower throughout the twentieth century.

    But world domination is a different matter and, given the geographical location of the US compared to the Heartland and Rimland, first requires a large capacity to project power. Of course with two oceans in between, it is naval power through which power has been conveyed, especially in the early part of the last century.

    Mahan and Maritime Power

    The third geopolitical theory is based on the importance given to maritime (or naval) power. The author of this theory, propounded towards the end of 1800, was US Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan.

    «Mahan was a ‘precursor’ to international organizations. He assumed that through a union between the United States and Britain, being two maritime powers, they could unite to share the conquest of the seas. The key concept is that ‘the maritime powers are united in opposition to those continental.’ Mahan explains the concept of naval doctrine, which is the policy that states pursue in the maritime and military arenas. In order for a state to have a naval doctrine, it must possess a substantial navy, as well as of course access to the sea, adequate projection capability, adequate means, and have strategic objectives to be protected (such as security zones exposed to risk)».

    As one can easily understand, these three doctrines are central to controlling the whole world. Dominating the Heartland is possible thanks to the control of the Rimland, and in order to conquer the Rimland it is necessary to control shipping routes and dominate the seas, relying upon the Mahan theory of maritime supremacy.

    In this sense, seas and oceans of great geographic importance are those that encircle the Rimland: The East and South China Seas, the Philippine Sea, the Gulf of Thailand, the Celebes Sea, the Java Sea, the Andaman Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea, and finally the Mediterranean.

    In particular, straits such as Malacca, between Indonesia and Malaysia, or the Suez Canal, are of strategic importance due to their role as a transit route and connection between all the seas adjacent to the so-called Rimland.

    A bit of history. Route to global domination

    It was Hitler's Germany during World War II that tried to put into practice the theory of geopolitics MacKinder was describing, managing to seize the Heartland but ultimately amounting to nothing with the final victory of the Red Army, who rebuffed and destroyed the Nazis.

    After the end of World War II, the United States placed the Soviet Union in its crosshairs, with the intention of conquering the Heartland and thereby dominating the world. Alternatively, Plan B was to prevent other nations from teaming together to dominate the Heartland. This explains the historical conflicts between the US and Iran and between Russia and China, the three most important nations composing the Heartland.

    Russia, since Tsarist times and throughout the Soviet period to today, has always been in the crosshairs of the United States, given its geographical location central to the Heartland.

    Iran also constitutes a valuable piece of the 'Heart of the World', which was gifted to the Anglo-Americans courtesy the Pahlavi monarchy lending itself to the American plan to conquer the heart of the land. It was only after the 1979 revolution, which ousted the Pahlavi monarchy and installed an Islamic Republic, that Tehran became an enemy of Washington.

    The reason why Afghanistan was invaded and Ukraine destabilized, and why the Belarusian leadership is hated almost as much as is the Russian one, is the same, namely, the geographical positions of these countries in composing the Heartland compels the US to conquer them as part of its grand strategy to dominate the world through the control of the Heartland.

    The Republic of China, another constituent part of the Heartland theory, was during the Cold War the great Asian pivot thanks to Kissinger’s policy aimed at curbing the USSR and preventing the birth of a possible alliance between Tehran, Moscow and Beijing that would dominate the Heartland, especially in the late 1980s. The United States, instead of directly attacking China, used it against the Soviet Union. Washington's primary goal, as well as to expand its influence everywhere, was to prevent any kind of alliance that would control the Heartland, specially preventing any alliance or understanding between Moscow and Beijing; but this will be very well explained in my third analysis on how Eurasia reunited to reject the American global empire.

    Control of a nation

    Historically, control of a nation takes place through military power that allows for a variety of impositions. Also, culture is part of the process of conquering a nation. Today, other than militarily, it is mainly economic power that determines the national sovereignty of a nation. In the modern world, especially in the last three decades, if you control the economy of a nation, you control the rulers of that nation. The dollar and neoliberal experiments like globalization are basically the two most powerful and invasive American tools to employ against geopolitical opponents. The application of military force is no longer the sole means of conquering and occupying a country. Obligating the use of a foreign currency for trade or limiting military supplies from a single source, and impeding strategic decisions in the energy sector, are ways the globalist elites are able to dominate a foreign country, taking control over its policies. The European Union and the NATO-member countries are good examples of what artificially independent nations look like, because they are in reality fully dispossessed of strategic choices in the areas mentioned. Washington decides and the vassals obey.

    It is not always possible to employ military power as in the Middle East, or to stage a color revolution as in Ukraine. Big and significant nations like Russia, India, China and Iran are virtually impossible to control militarily, leaving only the financial option available. In this sense, the role of central banks and the de-dollarization process are a core strategic interest for these countries as a way of maintaining their full sovereignty. In going in this direction, they deliver a dramatic blow to US aspirations for a global empire.

    The next article will focus on how the United States has tried to implement these strategies, and how these strategies have changed over the last seventy years, especially over the last two decades.

  • In His Latest Letter, Odey Refuses To Throw In The Towel

    With his fund down ~50%  YTD, one wonders if Crispin Odey should be thinking about quietly exiting stage left after along and mostly illustrious career. However, as his latest letter suggests, Odey is just getting his second, or maybe third, wind and is confident that he will ultimately win the war against central bankers, although as he himself points out, the risk is not so much his own fund blowing up as much as LPs saying enough to active investing altogether, and cautioned that “skilled investors are being driven out by mindless (passive) investing.”

    Putting it mildly (especially for his own fund), Odey said that “this has been a difficult year for active managers,” and added that “passive investing has taken money which typically would have been in the bond market and deposited it in the equity market.”

    While it remains to be seen if active management is on the endangered list, Odey has bigger troubles with his own LPs in the coming weeks, although his fortune may change in 2017 when as he warns, “central bankers will have to respond to what their governments are doing fiscally, rather than bolstering asset prices with low interest rates. There could be trouble ahead.”

    There could, indeed, which simply means the cycle starts from scratch and central banks LBO even more of the global capital markets, until the 0.01% own all the assets while the rest “own” the debt.

    His full November letter below:

    This is not the beginning of a new cycle. This recovery which began in 2009 on the back of zero interest rates is long in the tooth. After 7 years, the benefits of low interest rates – cheaply financed cars and houses – are played out, whilst oil is now a conundrum. For half the world, the problem is that oil has fallen 50% and for the other half the problem is that the price of oil is up 50%.

    What is true is that there are two problems for the developed world that have not gone away. They are that house prices, and assets in general, are too expensive to be bought out of income. The disparity between the “Haves” and the “Have-nots” is too great. Secondly and relatedly is the brutal difference in lifestyle of the young and the old.

    QE has resulted in very high asset prices and ushered in weaker and weaker productivity gains. Low growth cannot sit alongside rising inequality.

    Brexit, Trump, the Italian referendum came about because the problems seem impossible to solve. Everyone is now looking to any individual who believes he can solve the problem.

    A world fuelled by government spending initiatives, as demanded by voters, promises to undermine the careful husbandry of the developed economies crafted by the policies of central banks.

    If unemployment is already at cyclical lows, new expansionary policies will get reflected in higher inflation reasonably quickly.

    At present markets are just pleased to see a yield curve coming back, but there is no thought that inflation will truly come through.

    Part of this is a belief in the USA that Trump is like Reagan and 2017 is like 1981. However, Reagan was elected after a re-cession. Interest rates were over 20% when he took office. Indebtedness for the whole economy was at 0.9x GNP and the P/E for the stockmarket was 12x. Trump comes in with indebtedness at 3.5x GNP and the stockmarket on 22x current earnings.

    Leverage means every 1% rise in interest rates demands a 3% rise in incomes to keep debt serviceable.

    This has been a difficult year for active managers. 70% of turnover is now accounted for by passive managers. Passive investing has taken money which typically would have been in the bond market and deposited it in the equity market. Naturally skilled investors are being driven out by mindless (passive) investing.

    Is this the time to dump the active managers? One imagines that their time comes again when this sea of money starts to ebb, driven by inflation and higher interest rates. The UK is already facing it. Companies are encountering higher import prices, which is increasing the working capital requirement as well as wage pressures. Is this the beginning of a new cycle?

    Beware leap years! 1994 was the year that deflation came to the world, and a difficult year then was the prelude to many hap-pier years because the skill set required for the subsequent years was exactly the opposite of what was required for 1994.

    Similarly a world of inflation and default is a world in which active managers should outperform.

    Certainly, politicians are no longer interested in higher prices for assets. Politics demands the solution of the “Haves” and “Have-nots”, the young and the old.

    Stockmarkets since the Trump victory have merely served to put cyclical sectors on the same high ratings of growth compa-nies. Whether it is the oil price or other commodities, spot prices are now almost flat going out along the curve. There is little to go for in this area unless inflation comes through.

    China is now the source of inflation. Tax changes in the USA involving raising import prices by 20% effectively and lowering export prices by 12%, will also increase inflationary pressures.

    2017 looks to be a year when central bankers will have to respond to what their governments are doing fiscally, rather than bolstering asset prices with low interest rates. There could be trouble ahead.

    * * *

    Curious what Odey’s biggest positions were as of November 30? The answer is  below.

  • Here Are The Countries Where Millennials Will Have To Work Until They Die

    It turns out there is a downside to spending 120% of your annual income every year from the time you graduate college until that day you turn 40 and finally realize that you’re getting old and have absolutely no liquid assets and no hopes of ever retiring.  While the above strategy seemingly makes sense to our elitist, Ivy League-educated central planners at the Fed who have waged a nearly decade-long war on saving (because how can we have economic growth if people aren’t willing to lever their income 5x and spend every dollar they make?), the roughly 19% of Americans who are over the age of 65 and are still forced to work are probably wishing they could go back and do things slightly differently. 

    As Bloomberg points out, the percentage of 65 years olds working in the U.S. today is higher than at any point going back to at least 1965.

    Millennials

     

    Unfortunately, this looks to be a record that millennials are destined to beat.  As we recently pointed out (see “Most Millennials Have Less Than $1,000 In Savings, Live Paycheck-to-Paycheck“), the majority of millennials are living paycheck to paycheck.

    A recent survey of millennials by HowMuch.net found that 51.8% of those aged 18-34 have less than $1,000 held between bank accounts and cash savings.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, this echoes previous data we’ve seen – not just on millennials, but Americans in general. For example, we know that 14% of Americans have “negative” wealth. We also know that 62% of Americans don’t have emergency savings that could cover a $1,000 hospital visit or a $500 car repair.

    Taking that into consideration, here’s a deeper dive into the more recent millennial data…

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

     

    Meanwhile, as a testament to their strong work ethic, a study by ManpowerGroup recently found that roughly 30% of millennials envisioned taking an “extended break” from work at some point in their careers to “relax/travel/vacation” while another ~20% said they’d take a break to “pursue a life dream or hobby.”  Sure, why not?  If everything goes horribly wrong then taxpayers will be waiting to payoff your student loans for you…so no worries.

    Millennials

     

    And, unless you thought this was just a phenomenon limited to America’s snowflakes, turns out millennials all over the world have very little confidence in their ability to save.

    Millennials

     

    Well, at least we’re not alone…misery loves company as they say.

  • Forget Monte Paschi, Italy May Have A Far Bigger Problem

    While the metaphorical 'earthquake' of a systemic banking crisis is coming to a head, it appears Italy may have a far more existential problem on its hands. As The Independent reports, one of the world’s most dangerous supervolcanoes is showing signs of reawakening under the Italian city of Naples.

    The Campi Flegrei may be nearing a critical pressure point necessary to drive an eruption for the first time in 500 years, according to scientists.

    Researchers say the volcano is moving towards a threshold beyond which rising magma could spark the release of fluids and gases at 10 times the normal rate.

    This surge would cause an injection of extremely hot steam into surrounding rocks, Giovanni Chiodini, lead author of the study, told AFP.

    This could ultimately trigger a “very dangerous” eruption for the three million people living in the area.

    Since 2005, the Campi Flegrei  has been undergoing “uplift”, which is the accumulation of magma under the surface of a volcano.

    In response, Italian authorities raised the threat level from green to yellow in 2012, signalling the need for the supervolcano to be actively monitored.

    Four years ago, scientists warned any eruption could kill millions living near or on top of the volcano.

    "These areas can give rise to the only eruptions that can have global catastrophic effects comparable to major meteorite impacts," said Giuseppe De Natale, head of a project to monitor the volcano's activity.

    Nearby Mount Vesuvius, whose massive eruption buried Roman settlements including Pompeii in AD79, is also considered an active volcano.

  • 6 Charts That Make The Case We Are In Long-Term Secular Bear

    Submitted by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

    As I look out over the coming years, I am convinced that we’ll see the blowing up of the biggest bubbles in history – including those of government debt and government promises. And it’s not just in the US, but all over the world.

    That will lead to an eventual global crisis of biblical proportions. Although, it isn’t clear what the immediate cause of the crisis will be.

    Let’s start with some basics

    The most common way to measure valuation is with the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). Analysts compile P/E and other indicators from many companies to give us valuation metrics on entire markets and indexes.

    You can see overvaluation and undervaluation in this chart from my friend Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research.

    The red line is the combined P/E ratio of the S&P 500 as originally reported. The green and blue lines are adjusted Crestmont and Shiller versions, which occasionally diverge. The P/E ratio spent most of the last century between 10 and 25.

    Presently, all three P/E versions are near or above 25, indicating overvaluation. This doesn’t mean the end is near—though it could be. But it does suggest that we are not at the beginning of another long-term bull market.

    P/E adjusted to economic growth

    The next chart illustrates the past and present trend in a different way.

    Direct your attention to the dashed line.

    It’s Ed’s long-term earnings baseline, which he adjusts to reflect the relationship of earnings to economic growth. Reported earnings per share go below the baseline during bear markets and above it in bullish periods. Currently, it is way above trend and is projected by S&P and many others on Wall Street to become even more so.

    The Buffett indicator

    The Buffett Indicator is essentially the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of GDP. Intuitively, it seems odd that the combined value of every public stock would be worth more than the country’s annual production. But sometimes it is. Those periods tend to mark overvaluation, as you can see here.

    The interesting thing here is that right now, the Buffett Indicator—while down from its late 2014 peak—is still higher than it was before the 2008 financial crisis. That should not be encouraging if you’re a bull.

    S&P 500 median since 1964

    The next chart is from Ned Davis and shows us the S&P 500 median P/E back to 1964, which is 16.9 (dotted green line). The distance we are above or below the median is a valuation clue.

    Could the market get more overvalued? Absolutely. It did in the tech bubble.

     

    Household equity percentage vs. S&P 500 total return

    The following chart takes some explaining.

    It shows the percentage of household financial assets invested in stocks (blue line) versus the S&P 500 total return for the following 10 years (dotted line).

    Notice that the right axis is inverted and the dotted line tracks pretty close to the solid blue one. The correlation is 0.91, which is extraordinarily high.

    What the chart shows us is that a higher percentage of household assets in equities points to a lower annualized return over the next 10 years.

    Note the green arrow at the 2009 low. It points off to the right scale just below 15. That suggests that someone who bought stocks at that low point and holds them until 2019 will realize a roughly 15% annualized return.

    That’s the good news. The bad news is that the red arrow at 6-30-2016 means that the 10 years ending 6-30-2026 should produce a 3.25% annual gain. That’s not awful, of course, but it is nowhere near the 7% or more that many pensions and insurance companies think they can earn on their portfolios.

    We are way overdue for a correction

    Bottom line: We are way overdue for a correction. Again, our situation is not the worst it’s ever been, but we are beginning to bump up against historical lines in the sand.

    Here’s the chart, which shows the number of days before the start of 5%, 10%, and 20% corrections.

    Here is how you read this chart:

    The top section shows the history of the S&P 500 Index from 1928 to present. The next three sections show the number of days prior to the start of 5%, 10%, and 20% corrections.

    I think we are still in a very long-term secular bear, although there has been a clear cyclical bull market since 2009. I think the next global recession (hopefully not a depression) will potentially give us a vicious bear market that will mark the end of this secular bear.

    You can see that it has been 116 days since we had a 5% correction. Since 1928, the average number of days before a 5% correction occurred was 50. In secular bull periods, the average number of days was 84. In secular bear periods, the average number of days was 31.

    Note that we have been 210 days without a 10% correction. Since 1928, the average number of days before a 10% correction occurred was 167. In secular bull periods, the average number of days was 331, while in secular bear periods, the average number of days was 91.

    It has been 1955 days since we suffered a 20% correction. Since 1928, the average number of days before a 20% correction occurred was 635. In secular bull periods, the average number of days was 1105. In secular bear periods, the average number of days was 486.

    The current case of 1955 days without a 20% correction is more than three times the average of 635 days (for the whole period from 1-3-1928 to 12-8-2016).

    For this record number of days, let us all join hands and exclaim, “Thank you, Fed, BOJ, and ECB!”

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Today’s News 23rd December 2016

  • TUCKER CARLSON CRUCIFIES CNN REPORTER FOR RETWEETING ADAM SALEH PRANK

    How dare Brian Stelter, so called ‘journalist’ at CNN, retweet an obvious prank by some dipshit named Adam Saleh — over what he sensationalized to be ISLAMOPHOBIA at the hands of a fine American company called Delta Airlines.

    The claim by the very flamboyant and effeminate Adam Saleh was that he was merely talking a barbarous version of Arabic to his Mother, to which was met with an unrelenting form of ISLAMOPHOBIA by the employees at Delta, who quickly ferreted him off the fucking plane for obvious fears that he was about to stage a terrorist event by way of hijacking or shoe bomb detonation.

    Little did the plebian employees know that Adam was just an effete member of the youtube theatre, playing tricks on the people, hoping to cash in on his adsense ads on his stupid videos. In other words, he was full of shit. A simply cursory google search would’ve produced such valuable information, something the CNN journalist named BRIAN STELTER didn’t bother to do.

    Mr. Stelter didn’t bother to do a cursory search on Adam Saleh, instead opting to RETWEET his salacious story, because he’s a very dumb man — a stone aged type of person with savage qualities occupying a very low station in life. Most of the time Mr. Stelter is busy putting out stories about FAKE NEWS, while at the same time creating his own FAKE NEWS. The main stream media today is an active practice of a nonsensical nature, very Kafkaesque for you literary and Orsen Welles aficionados.

    Here’s Brian making fun of himself.
    loser

    The bow-tie less Tucker Carlson calls out Mr. Stelter, and the media as a whole, for being very stupid, falling for the oldest tricks in the book.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Bitcoin Soars Above $900 As China Opens

    For the 3rd night in a row, China opens with a panic bid for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is now up over 14% in less than 3 days, topping $900 for the first time since December 2013. Interestingly yuan is not moving much tonight.

    The USD price for a Bictoin has soared over 14% in the last 2 days. We first warned of this 'outlet' for Chinese capital in September 2015 when Bitcoin was trading around $200…now it is topping $900…

     

    And volume is very heavy once again from China…

     

    Getting very close to record highs…

     

    As a reminder, back in 2013, the government classified bitcoin as a commodity and not currency, placing it outside the purview of the foreign-exchange regulator, the people said.  That does not mean, however, that China is powerless at limiting bitcoin's upside.

    Several Chinese government bodies including the People’s Bank of China and the financial regulators said in a joint notice that year that bitcoin functioned like a digital commodity without the legal status of a currency. The central bank said in January it is studying the prospects of issuing its own digital currency and aims to roll out a product as soon as possible.

    While China dominates bitcoin mining and trading, the government has shown caution over its spread in the nation. In 2013, the PBOC barred financial institutions from handling bitcoin transactions.

  • Federal Reserve Initiates End Game As Trump Heads To White House

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    For years, alternative economic analysts have been warning that the “miraculous” rise in U.S. stock markets has been the symptom of wider central bank intervention and that this will result in dire future consequences. We have heard endless lies and rationalizations as to why this could not be so, and why the U.S. “recovery” is real.  At the beginning of 2016, the former head of the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve crushed all the skeptics and vindicated our position in an interview with CNBC where he stated:

    “What the Fed did — and I was part of that group — is we front-loaded a tremendous market rally, starting in 2009.It’s sort of what I call the “reverse Whimpy factor” — give me two hamburgers today for one tomorrow. I’m not surprised that almost every index you can look at … was down significantly.” [Referring to the results in the stock market after the Fed raised rates in December.]

    Fisher continued his warning (though his predictions in my view are wildly conservative or deliberately muted):

    “…I was warning my colleagues, “Don’t go wobbly if we have a 10-20 percent correction at some point. … Everybody you talk to … has been warning that these markets are heavily priced.”

    Here is the issue stocks are a mostly meaningless factor when considering the economic health of a nation. Equities are a casino based on nothing but the luck of the draw when it comes to news headlines, central banker statements and algorithmic computers. Today, as Fischer openly admitted, stocks are a purely manipulated indicator representing nothing but the amount of stimulus central banks are willing to pour into them through various channels.

    Even with the incredible monetary support pooled together by international financiers, returns on equities investments continue to remain mostly flat.  It would seem that the propping up of indexes like the Dow has been only for the sake of keeping up appearances. For many people, revenue is barely being generated.

    Unfortunately, the majority of Americans do not care to educate themselves on the finer points of finance. Their only relation to the health of the economy is their daily glance at the Dow. If it is green, or at all time highs, they assume that all is well, even if their gut is telling them something is not quite right.

    The elites that stand at the helm of the Federal Reserve understand this dynamic very well. They are not stupid. They know that the whole of the global economy could be in a shambles but as long as stocks remain positive the masses will continue to ignore reality until the flames of destabilization are at their very doorsteps.

    With this fact in mind one might think that the Fed would consider it in their best interest to keep stimulus measures operating indefinitely; but that is not what they are doing.

    In fact, the Fed along with other central banks like the ECB has been slowly peeling back pillars of support from markets that have been in place since 2008-2009 and leaving the system open to a crisis event that should have been dealt with years ago. I examined this process of deliberate destabilization in my article 'The Global Economic Reset Has Begun.'

    In that piece I outlined the three major pillars holding up the U.S. market system and certain parts of our economy and how they were being systematically removed.

    The first pillar was the use of bailouts and quantitative easing measures. These were diminished through the implementation of the Fed “taper,” which I predicted would happen three months prior that year.

    The second pillar was the use of near zero interest rates, which allowed numerous banks and corporations to access low-cost and no-cost overnight loans from the Fed. These companies then used these loans in large part to support a never-ending program of stock buybacks, which reduced the stock pool and artificially boosted the values of the remaining stocks.  I predicted in August of 2015 that the Fed would hike interest rates and that this would be the beginning of the end for the stock buyback bonanza. The Fed hiked rates in December of that year.

    This process of removing backdoor manipulation through low interest rates should be our main concern right now. Early in 2016 I believed that the Fed would reach a position in which it would finally unleash a series of rate hikes. I did not think they would be so blatant as to wait until right after the U.S. presidential election to do so. I was wrong.

    This is why I eventually predicted the launch of a series of rate hikes starting right after the election of Donald Trump in my article 'World Suffers From Trump Shell Shock  Here’s What Will Happen Next.' The Fed has now once again hiked interest rates with assertions that they will be “accelerating” such hikes throughout 2017.

    As I have been arguing for most of the past year, the election of Donald Trump was inevitable and would precede the triggering of the final stage of our ongoing economic crisis. I came to realize that the Fed’s timing of their latest rate hike is highly strategic. Not only does it set the stage for a series of hikes that will crush U.S. stock markets this coming year and finally shock the public out of their fiscal stupor, but it also maneuvers the crisis right into the lap of Donald Trump and the conservative movements that support him.

    Beyond this, it perpetuates an increasing Left/Right division in America. Think about it  during a fiscal crisis under Trump, tiggered by accumulating Fed rate hikes, liberals will immediately set upon Trump as the culprit, while conservatives will immediately defend Trump as a victim of Federal Reserve meddling.

    The Federal Reserve and the mainstream media are already composing the narrative by stating that Trump's potential economic policies and a widening budget deficit would REQUIRE higher rates at a faster pace in order to be accommodated.

    I have heard arguments from some that this tactic would simply not work. That people would “never buy” a narrative in which Trump and conservatives are blamed for a market collapse that was at least eight years in the making. I have to say, this view is incredibly naive.

    I understand why people would want to embrace the notion that the public is as savvy as the liberty movement when looking at economic events, but this simply isn’t reality. A large portion of the U.S. population identifies with the “Left” end of the political spectrum. We have already seen how they react in the face of a Trump election win. They are predisposed to believe that Trump is responsible for a market crash regardless of the facts. Not to mention, much of the rest of the world is economically ignorant and will likely jump on the anti-conservative bandwagon during a crisis as well.

    But the real master stroke of this strategy on the part of the elites is that it creates the perfect platform for the destruction of the U.S. dollar’s world reserve status  the third and final pillar I mentioned months ago that is supporting our economic system.

    Imagine that the Fed’s rate hike frenzy sparks an open feud between the central bank and Trump? Some people might say “Good! Shut the bastards down!” However, this is exactly what the elites want. With the Fed “at odds” with the president of the U.S., faith in the U.S. dollar will plummet. Its world reserve status will be destroyed. And instead of being blamed on central banks, the majority of people around the world will claim it was the fault of Trump.

    With a historically sufficient excuse for the end of dollar dominance in hand, the elites can move forward with their great global reset, which includes the replacement of the dollar with the IMF’s special drawing rights as the go-to reserve currency mechanism. The SDR basket is an essential bridge in the formation of a single global monetary authority and a true single global currency.

    I believe that the Fed will not only continue hiking interest rates throughout 2017, but that some of these rate hikes may be LARGER than many people expect (50 basis points or more). I believe this will be designed to foster extreme tensions between the executive branch and the central bank.

    A few months ago I would have said that Trump may or “may not” be aware of this dynamic and the potential that he is a scapegoat. Now that I have seen Trump’s cabinet picks which include neo-con and Goldman Sachs alumni, I have little doubt that he is fully cognizant of the plan.  I will be writing more on the issue of Trump as a "Trojan horse" in my next article.  In the meantime I would point out that all of the elements of psychological support for stock markets will also disappear in the face of a Trump verses establishment narrative.

    All those leftist media outlets cherry picking economic stats and telling half truths to support the recovery lie now have no reason to continue cheerleading for the economy. I expect that propaganda rags like Reuters and Bloomberg will quickly change their tune with Trump in the Oval Office and begin a consistent chorus of negative financial data. Not only will the Fed remove all support from the system, but the mainstream media will be pounding day traders with the kind of “doom and gloom” headlines that they have been criticizing us for over the years.

    Make no mistake, the election of Trump may have some in the liberty movement ready to pack up their preps and forget about any national crisis in their lifetimes, but the truth is, vigilance is needed now more than ever. I said it before the election and I’ll say it today  do not get comfortable; the times are about to get even more interesting.

  • Royal Mint And CME Make A Mint On The Blockchain?

    Royal Mint And CME Make A Mint On The Blockchain?

    The last fortnight has been an exciting one in the gold and blockchain space. Earlier this week Euroclear and Paxos announced that a group which included Société Générale, Citi, Scotiabank had completed the first pilot of the blockchain-based gold trading platform as being developed by Euroclear. In Canada, the Royal Canadian Mint became the latest sovereign mint to announce a blockchain product with GoldMoney.

    gold-bullion-sovereign-2017Royal Mint Gold Sovereigns 2017

    The Royal Mint in the UK had beaten the Royal Canadian Mint and GoldMoney to it by announcing at the end of November that they were launching a blockchain project, one which will be in direct competition with the Euroclear project.

    We will be looking at this week’s development in more detail shortly but today focus on the UK Royal Mint announcement and ask what this means for the 1,000 year old institution, the gold market and blockchain technology.

    The Royal Mint and CME Group announced a gold and blockchain ‘solution’ three weeks ago. As one would expect from a trading solution using blockchain, it will ‘log each transaction’. The two parties will collaborate on a digital gold asset called Royal Mint Gold (RMG) and will ‘transform the way traders and investors trade, execute and settle gold.’

    In a conference call quoted by the Internatonal Business Times, there was very little said about what made the plans any different to what is already being offered by the likes of Goldcore. Bars will be held in secure storage, represented on an online trading platform and then traded. But, a blockchain will be in place.

    Despite the fanfare and considerable PR benefit surrounding the announcement there is very little information on the hows and the whys of the decision by HM Treasury owned Royal Mint and the world’s largest futures exchange operator to launch a joint blockchain offering. Instead this appears to be about encouraging physical gold ownership, facilitated by a government who happen to own a storage facility.

    But what does it mean?

    Blockchain has to be the most hyped technology in a very long time. Even AI, IoT and VR, all of which are creating a lot of excitement, are not experiencing the same level of fuss.

    blockchain-gold
    Solutions for trading physical assets, based on the blockchain are becoming more popular and as a result more sophisticated. Many are autonomous which is obviously attractive to those who choose to invest in gold.

    This is where there is an interesting point when it comes to the Royal Mint and their interest in blockchain. It is too easy for someone unfamiliar with blockchain technology and the gold market to assume that this move by the 1,000 year old institution is to offer some kind of autonomy to the gold market.

    It seems that we live in a world where we shout ‘got a problem? Blockchain’ll fix it!’

    Take health records, for example. There is little doubt that blockchain technology really could transform the systems and processes that are currently in place. However those problems exist because of a multitude of reasons location, legacy systems, interest of invested parties to name a few.

    None of which will disappear with the appearance of a blockchain.

    The case is the same for gold and the blockchain. I do believe that blockchain could play a big role in the international gold market. But, in this case for the end customer and for the wider gold market I believe this will not have a significant positive impact. As explained earlier, this is a gold trading platform that happens to be using blockchain.

    Economist Ashe Whitener agrees

    “In my opinion, this is only news because the Royal Mint is basically a government-owned entity experimenting with blockchain. Just because something tangible like gold has a serial number on a blockchain, doesn’t mean that it is any more secure, safe or less risky.

    Since the underlying asset is still physical, we still must place our trust with the Mint in terms of vaulting the gold. So nothing here really changes.”

    What is it good for?

    This is likely better news for the blockchain industry than for the gold market. For the blockchain space an announcement by a 1,000 year-old, government owned institution along with the world’s largest futures exchange operator is another tick in the legitimacy box for this relatively new and much hyped technology.

    The announcement has lead to even more discussions about how the distributed ledger technology can be used in the world of gold trading.

    As Michael Scott wrote upon hearing the announcement:

    “It reflects blockchain’s ability to adroitly track and authenticate data, secured by a global ecosystem of computers which ensure that recorded transactions are tamper resistant and unalterable.”

    Does the Royal Mint need a blockchain?

    Blockchain’s abilities to remove uncertainties could be particularly beneficial to the gold market, a market that is so overrun with uncertainty and opacity that companies such as GoldCore go to great lengths to put systems and processes in place in order to guarantee transparency and accessibility.

    At present, very little information has been released by CME Group and the Royal Mint on the specifics of what kind of blockchain will be used, and in what capacity it will play a role.

    As Sandra Ro of CME said in the conference call

    “We will go into further details about exactly how a lot of process will work and the finer details around the platform at a later date.”

    What we do know (thanks to Ro) is that the blockchain in place will be a permissioned network. This effectively means that Joe Bloggs cannot decide he would also like to participate in the Royal Mint’s blockchain and start approving transactions. Instead, all actors will be known and ‘and there will be a mechanism by which validators will validate the transactions.’

    As the two parties have themselves said, this is not about a blockchain product, this is an investment platform that happens to use blockchain. However, be sure that both the Royal Mint and CME Group will have full oversight and likely control over the blockchain.

    The attraction of blockchain technology in the gold market, is similar to that in any other marketplace where there is an exchange of information (which may or may not lead to an exchange of an asset). A central database, or registry, is not needed thanks to the decentralised network of records.

    This creates some significant cost and time savings, as well as boosting the efficiencies in how information is recorded, updated and shared.

    One of the claims by the Royal Mint is that by using a blockchain solution, they will not have to pass storage fees onto clients. How using the blockchain means that storage fees no longer have to be charged is something that is not yet clear. If RMG is fully-backed by gold then who is covering the storage and insurance costs for participants?

    Is it not of interest as to why an institution owned by a heavily indebted government would be making a lot of noise about it’s gold trading platform that just so happens to be connected to some storage vaults?

    Boost to London?

    The decision to use blockchain technology is, according to the UK’s Daily Telegraph “a bid to broaden London’s appeal as a place to buy and sell bullion.”

    Currently the London Gold market, along with the COMEX is the biggest price creator in the gold market. Around $5 trillion of gold deals are done in the capital city, per year. The City is not currently struggling in terms of appeal, to the mainstream at least.

    However of late a series of moves across the globe may have current gold market influencers thinking about what the future may hold.

    The move to blockchain by both groups is not surprising.

    The Royal Mint has been looking at the space for the last couple of years, whilst CME Group have investments in two blockchain companies. Both will no doubt be feeling the pressure from the developments that are going on in London. We recently discussed the increasingly fragmented London gold market, which has new players offering blockchain solutions for various aspects of gold trading.

    In the US, CME Group will also be carefully watching TradeWindMarkets, a spin off from IEX Group (of Flashboys fame) which will also be launching a blockchain supported gold exchange.

    Outside of London announcements by Singapore and China, plus the setting of the Sharia Gold Standard likely has current price setters in the gold market, anxious about how they can maintain their stronghold.

    But this is unlikely to just be about increasing awareness of the London Gold market. The big gold trading institutions are already aware of, and are using the OTC market.

    Royal Mint gold is not diversification

    Gold investors buy gold to diversify their portfolio. There are more detailed reasons, and further reasons for doing so, but this is the one that covers most gold investors. You might also invest in gold because you read that it would perform well in the next five years, your colleague might invest in gold because of concerns over the cashless society and it goes on. But ultimately we all do it to diversify our investments and as a form of financial insurance.

    We want some portfolio diversification because we want to protect (and grow) our wealth as much as possible. What are we protecting it from? Changes in the economy. This in turn is affected by a multitude of factors from financial developments, economic policies, governments, geopolitical events and even the weather.

    When we invest in an asset that is designed to reduce our exposure to global risk, it’s probably a great idea to choose one which is as far removed from the system as possible.

    This is why we choose gold. It is a border less, autonomous asset, a gold bar or coin cannot be printed many times over at the will of government or central bank, it cannot be eaten away by negative interest rates, if held non bank, non government, safer jurisdictions, a government will find it very hard to remove it through bail-ins or asset confiscation. History has shown how its value remains and it is an invaluable wealth preservation tool.

    This is also why a lot of people like bitcoin, and why many are interested in the benefits a blockchain can bring to a system that represents exchange of value.

    So when we invest in gold, it flummoxes me why many people choose to do so with the help of the very system that has created the need to hold safe haven assets e.g. gold and silver. Why place your gold in the custody of a heavily indebted national government?

    We like the Royal Mint and their bullion coins, including Gold Sovereigns and Gold Britannias, are some of  our best selling gold coins. However, for those looking to own gold for diversification, safe haven and financial insurance purposes it is prudent to opt for owning such bullion coins and bars in allocated and segregated storage in large, stable, creditor nations.

    It is unlikely that a blockchain solution will give those Royal Mint users greater automony over their gold. The gold will still be stored in Royal Mint vaults, in the UK and, therefore, the custodian will remain the British Government which is under considerable stress and faces many challenges including Brexit and a massive national debt.

    To begin to promote gold ownership, via the hype of the blockchain, at a zero-storage fee cost leads to obvious questions as to whether this is a win for the investor or for the Royal Mint.

    Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

    Gold steady as dollar edges away from 14-year peak (Reuters.com)

    India Said to Consider Lowering Gold Import Tax to 6% From 10% (Bloomberg.com)

    Gold Futures Little Changed, But Lower Dollar Lends Some Support (EconomicCalendar.com)

    Investors shun Italian bank Monte Paschi’s share offer (Reuters.com)

    Italy approves €20 billion bailout fund – MPS closer to collapse (MarketWatch.com)

    Yuan Collapse Sends China Physical Gold Premium Soaring To 3-Year Highs (ZeroHedge.com)

    Gold: The Wait For Inauguration Day (321Gold.com)

    The Most Hated Asset On The Planet – Gold (TheMacraTourist.com)

    Krugman’s Latest Conspiracy: Trump Is A Gold Bug (Mises.org)

    Why modern monetary policy doesn’t work – the models it uses are horribly out of date (MoneyWeek.com)

    7RealRisksBlogBanner

    Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

    22 Dec: USD 1,130.55, GBP 916.20 & EUR 1,080.47 per ounce
    21 Dec: USD 1,134.40, GBP 919.20 & EUR 1,091.07 per ounce
    20 Dec: USD 1,132.75, GBP 915.94 & EUR 1,090.84 per ounce
    19 Dec: USD 1,137.60, GBP 913.15 & EUR 1,089.14 per ounce
    16 Dec: USD 1,134.85, GBP 911.17 & EUR 1,084.80 per ounce
    15 Dec: USD 1,132.45, GBP 904.37 & EUR 1,080.70 per ounce
    14 Dec: USD 1,160.95, GBP 917.38 & EUR 1,091.99 per ounce

    Silver Prices (LBMA)

    22 Dec: USD 15.77, GBP 12.78 & EUR 15.10 per ounce
    21 Dec: USD 16.03, GBP 12.96 & EUR 15.40 per ounce
    20 Dec: USD 15.80, GBP 12.80 & EUR 15.22 per ounce
    19 Dec: USD 16.00, GBP 12.89 & EUR 15.34 per ounce
    16 Dec: USD 16.05, GBP 12.91 & EUR 15.36 per ounce
    15 Dec: USD 16.14, GBP 12.95 & EUR 15.51 per ounce
    14 Dec: USD 17.11, GBP 13.52 & EUR 16.07 per ounce


    Recent Market Updates

    – China Gold and Precious Metals Summit 2016 – GoldCore Presentation
    – Trumpenstein ! Who Created Him and Why?
    – Bail-Ins Coming? World’s Oldest Bank “Survival Rests On Savers”
    – Fed’s “Fool Me…”, Silver Suppression, Euro Contagion In 2017?
    – Fed Raised Rates 0.25% – Rising Rates Positive For Gold
    – Shariah Gold Standard Is “Revolutionary” – Mobius
    – Silver Fixing By Banks Proven In Traders Chats
    – Euro Crisis and Contagion Coming In 2017
    – ECB ‘Bazooka’ Reloaded Until At Least December 2017 – Euro Gold Rises 1%; 13% YTD
    – UK £6 Billion Worse Off After Multi Billion Pound Gold “Accounting Error”
    – Buy Silver – May Replace Gold As Money In India
    – Shariah Gold Standard Approved for $2 Trillion Islamic Finance Market
    – Potential “Systemic Crisis In Eurozone” After Italy Votes No, Renzi Resigns

  • Ron Paul: "US Interferes In Foreign Elections All The Time"

    When asked whether all the “Russian hacking” allegations were just a simple “political stunt” or whether a serious investigation needed to be conducted, Ron Paul offered up a startling bit of reality pointing out that America has a long history of interfering with elections and even invading countries “to have our guy in.”  We suspect the following response was a bit more truth than Fox Business News expected.

    “I think it is politics more than anything else.  It’s really is nothing new. It’s like, guess what – somebody might have done A, B, C.”

     

    “The very rarely, if ever, compare what we do with election around the world.  We are interfering all the time.” 

     

    “I’m sure the Russians are interfering.  But when you lose, you can jump on that and make a big point of it. But I don’t think it made any difference.  I think it’s insignificant.”

     

    “If you review the history of how many elections we’ve been involved with, how many countries we’ve invaded and how many people we’ve killed to have our guy in, I’ll tell you what – we don’t have very much room for condemning anybody else.”

     

    “I think the spying and interference is sort of the nature of our governments. That’s why I’d like to see government much smaller.”

    Here is the full interview:

  • Save The Snowflakes

    Our nation’s snowflakes are being cared for by colleges and universities across the country. These schools – no, HEROES – are financially supporting cry-ins, hot chocolate, bubbles, kittens, puppies and ponies, crayons, and Play-Doh to comfort these wounded snowflakes. Some schools even canceled exams and classes to ensure that America’s youth are treated with extra care and understanding during these difficult times.

    But clearly, state funding – tax-payer dollars – are simply not enough.

    State budgets cannot be expected to bear this burden alone. It’s going to take a far more sustainable funding source to ensure special snowflakes have the emotional support they need. In response, we here at the Media Research Center have launched the Save the Snowflakes project to respond to this emergency and bring crucial attention to this devastating human crisis.

    The media may not choose to expose this atrocity, but the folks at Media Research Center, through their Save the Snowflakes initiative, is doing much more…

    "We won’t rest until we save each and every special snowflake from the horrors of exposure to … things they simply do not agree with."

    A testimonial will tug at your heart- and purse-strings…

     

    Source: SaveTheSnowflakes.org

  • Tennessee Man Gets $75 Check To "Restart His Life" After Being Wrongfully Imprisoned For 31 Years

    In October 1977, a Memphis, Tennessee woman was raped in her home by two intruders.  The woman subsequently identified one of the perpetrators as her neighbor, 22 year old Lawrence McKinney.  One year later, McKinney was convicted on rape and burglary charges and sentenced to 115 years in prison.

    The only problem is that he didn’t do it.  After spending 31 years in prison, DNA evidence cleared Mckinney of any wrongdoing in 2008 and he was later released in 2009 with a very “generous” check of $75 from the Tennessee Department of Corrections to help “restart his life.”  To add insult to injury, McKinney told CNN that “because I had no ID it took me three months before I was able to cash it.”

    McKinney

     

    Now, a 61-year-old McKinney is asking Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam to exonerate him, a move that would clear a path to pursue up to $1 million in compensation from the state Board of Claims for 3 decades of wrongful imprisonment. The Tennessee Board of Parole, which makes recommendations to the governor on such issues, denied McKinney’s request for exoneration by a 7-0 vote at a hearing in September saying they could not “find clear and convincing evidence of innocence.”

    “The (parole) board reviewed all relevant information related to the crime, conviction and subsequent appeals, as well as all information provided by the petitioner,” said Melissa McDonald, spokesperson for the Tennessee Board of Parole. “After considering all of the evidence, the board did not find clear and convincing evidence of innocence and declined to recommend clemency in this matter.”

     

    One of McKinney’s attorneys, Jack Lowery, believes the decision should rest solely with Haslam.

     

    “The parole board is not qualified to make these decisions and should not,” he said. “For the parole board to step in when many (of them) are not trained in the law is ridiculous.”

    Apparently the parole board based their decision, in part, on McKinney’s admission to the 1977 burglary charge, an admission his lawyer at the time told him he needed to make if he wanted any shot at an early parole.

    According to John Hunn, McKinney’s pastor and most ardent supporter, the board cited a list of 97 infractions that McKinney incurred while he was in jail, including the alleged assault of a fellow inmate, who testified against McKinney at the hearing. McKinney told the board he’d been in prison for years, and that “only the strong survive,” Hunn said. Hunn testified at the hearing on McKinney’s behalf.

     

    “Lawrence has told that story at our church,” Hunn said. “He doesn’t deny that story. He was in prison, man.”

     

    The parole board also knew that 28 years into his sentence, McKinney admitted to the burglary charge he was convicted of. McKinney said his lawyers at the time told him that if he wanted any chance of being released early, he would need to admit to something.

    Despite being forced to waste more than half his life behind bars, Mckinney says he’s not bitter and just wants to “be treated right and fair for what has happened to me.”

    “Although I’ve spent more than half of my life locked up for a crime I did not do, I am not bitter or angry at anyone, because I have found the Lord and married a good wife,” McKinney said. “All I ask is that I be treated right and fair for what has happened to me. I didn’t do nothing, and I just want to be treated right.”

    Perhaps the “commuter-in-chief” could take a little break from pardoning hardened drug dealers to help clear someone that seemingly actually deserves a break.

  • Deutsche Bank Settles With DOJ: Will Pay $3.1 Billion Civil Penalty

    With analyst expectations/hopes in the $2 to $5 billion range (against the initial $14 billion fine), Deutsche Bank said it has reached settlement with US authorities to pay a $3.1 billion civil penalty (and provide $4.1bn in relieef to consumers). Removing considerable uncertainty about Deutsche’s capital position, one wonders how much this remarkably low-ball settlement had to do with Donald Trump’s current loan re-negotiations with the “world’s most systemically dangerous bank.”

    As a reminder, the Wall Street Journal noted that DB’s attorneys had privately suggested that a $2 – $3 billion settlement with the DOJ was probably in the ballpark.  Meanwhile, wall street analysts had estimated settlements in the $2-$5 billion range.  Any fines paid pursuant to current negotiations would be in addition to the $1.9 billion already paid in 2013 to settle other U.S. claims related to mortgage-backed securities.

    Per the table below, as of June 30, DB had reserved a total of €5.5 billion for civil litigation and regulatory penalties on it’s balance sheet.

    DB

    And so this lower than expected penalty has sent US equity futures higher…

    As Bloomberg reports, Deutsche Bank said it has reached a $7.2 billion agreement to resolve a years-long U.S. investigation into its dealings in mortgage-backed securities, removing a major legal hurdle for the bank.

    Deutsche Bank will pay a $3.1 billion civil penalty and provide $4.1 billion in relief to consumers under a settlement in principle with U.S. authorities, which was announced by the Frankfurt-based bank in a statement early Friday. The deal compares with the Justice Department’s opening request of $14 billion, which the firm has said it expected to whittle down.

     

    While the agreement removes significant uncertainty hanging over Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest lender remains under Justice Department investigation in several other matters and also faces potentially expensive civil suits. Chief Executive Officer John Cryan has made resolving major litigation a priority as he seeks to restore confidence in the Frankfurt-based lender.

     

    The Obama administration is pressing to wrap up investigations of Wall Street firms for creating and selling the subprime mortgage bonds that fueled the 2008 financial crisis. Authorities have already extracted more than $46 billion in fines from six U.S. financial institutions over their dealings in mortgage-backed securities. Bank of America Corp., which had the largest such settlement, agreed to pay $16.7 billion over bonds that were worth four times what Deutsche Bank’s bonds were worth.

    While Obama’s legacy played its part, no doubt; we just can’t help but wonder how much the fact that, as Bloomberg reports, the bank is trying to restructure some of Trump’s roughly $300 million debt as part of an attempt to reduce any conflict of interest between the loan and his presidency, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    Normally, the removal of a personal pledge might lead to more-stringent terms. But there is little normal about this interaction. Trump’s attorney general will inherit an investigation of Deutsche Bank related to stock trades for rich clients in Russia — where Trump says he plans to improve relations — and may have to deal with a possible multibillion-dollar penalty to the bank related to mortgage-bond investigations.

     

    Whatever terms a restructured loan might include, they will reflect the complex new relationship spawned between Germany’s largest bank and its highest-profile client. Ethicists say this concerns them.

     

    “When you have political appointees making decisions about banks that the president owes a lot of money to, it looks terrible,” said Richard Painter, a law professor at the University of Minnesota who was the chief ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush. “The U.S. government is dealing with regulatory and criminal issues with the big banks all the time, and if he owes them a lot of money, there might be an incentive to favor less regulation and less enforcement for the banks.”

     

    Deutsche Bank declined to comment.

    Even better news, Deutsche Bank expects to record a pretax charge of about $1.17b in 4Q.

    So between Obama’s legacy and Trump’s loan mods, the department of Justice settled for 22c on the dollar of their original demand? That is around 10% of 2016’s revenues… “cost of doing business”?

    Where did the number come from? That’s easy…

  • Deep State Desperation

    Submitted by Robert Gore via StraightLineLogic.com,

    The pathetic attempts to undo Donald Trump’s victory are signs of desperation, not strength, in the Deep State.

    The post World War II consensus held that the USSR’s long-term goal was world domination. That assessment solidified after the Soviets detonated an atomic bomb in 1949. A nuclear arms race, a space race, maintenance of a globe-spanning military, political, and economic confederation, and a huge expansion of the size and power of the military and intelligence complex were justified by the Soviet, and later, the Red Chinese threats. Countering those threats led the US to use many of the same amoral tactics that it deplored when used by its enemies: espionage, subversion, bribery, repression, assassination, regime change, and direct and proxy warfare.

    Scorning principles of limited government, non-intervention in other nations’ affairs, and individual rights, the Deep State embraced the anti-freedom mindset of its purported enemies, not just towards those enemies, but toward allies and the American people. The Deep State gradually assumed control of the government and elected officials were expected to adhere to its policies and promote its propaganda. Only John F. Kennedy directly challenged it, firing CIA Director Allen Dulles after the Bay of Pigs disaster. He was assassinated, and whether or not CIA involvement is ever conclusively proven, the allegations have been useful to the agency, keeping politicians in line. The Deep State also co-opted the media, keeping it in line with a combination of fear and favor.

    Since its ascension in the 1950s, the biggest threat to the Deep State has not been its many and manifest failures, but rather what the naive would regard as its biggest success: the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Much of the military-industrial complex was suddenly deprived of its reason for existence—the threat was gone. However, a more subtle point was lost.

    The Soviet Union has been the largest of statism’s many failures to date. Because of the Deep State’s philosophical blinders, that outcome was generally unforeseen. The command and control philosophy at the heart of Soviet communism was merely a variant on the same philosophy espoused and practiced by the Deep State. Like the commissars, its members believe that “ordinary” people are unable to handle freedom, and that their generalized superiority entitles them to wield the coercive power of government.

    With “irresponsible” elements talking of peace dividends and scaling back the military and the intelligence agencies, the complex was sorely in need of a new enemy. Islam suffers the same critical flaw as communism—command and control—and has numerous other deficiencies, including intolerance, repression, and the legal subjugation of half its adherents. The Deep State had to focus on the world conquest ideology of some Muslims to even conjure Islam as a plausible foe. However, unlike the USSR, they couldn’t claim that sect and faction-ridden Islam posed a monolithic threat, that the Islamic nations were an empire or a federation united towards a common goal, or that their armaments (there are under thirty nuclear weapons in the one Islamic nation, Pakistan, that has them) could destroy the US or the entire planet.

    There was too much money and power at stake for the complex to shrink. While on paper Islam appeared far weaker than communism, the complex had one factor in their favor: terrorism is terrifying. In the wake of the 9/11 attacks, Americans surrendered liberties and gave the Deep State carte blanche to fight a war on terrorism that would span the globe, target all those whom the government identified as terrorists, and never be conclusively won or lost. Funding for the complex ballooned, the military was deployed on multiple fronts, and the surveillance state blossomed. Most of those who might have objected were bought off with expanded welfare state funding and programs (e.g. George W. Bush’s prescription drug benefit, Obamacare).

    What would prove to be the biggest challenge to the centralization and the power of the Deep State came, unheralded, with the invention of the microchip in the late 1950s. The Deep State could not have exercised the power it has without a powerful grip on information flow and popular perception. The microchip led to widespread distribution of cheap computing power and dissemination of information over the decentralized Internet. This dynamic, organically adaptive decentralization has been the antithesis of the command-and-control Deep State, which now realizes the gravity of the threat. Fortunately, countering these technologies has been like trying to eradicate hordes of locusts.

    The gravest threat, however, to the Deep State is self-imposed: it’s own incompetence. Even the technologically illiterate can ask questions for which it has no answers. Why has the US been involved in long, costly, bloody, and inconclusive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq? Why should the US get involved in similar conflicts in Syria, Libya, Somalia, Yemen, Iran, and other Middle Eastern and Northern African hotspots? Isn’t such involvement responsible for blowback terrorism and refugee flows in both Europe and the US? Have “free trade” agreements and porous borders been a net benefit or detriment to the US? Why is the banking industry set up for periodic crises that inevitably require government bail-outs? (SLL claims no special insight into the nexus between the banking-financial sector and the Deep State, other than to note that there is one.) Why does every debt crisis result in more debt? How has encouraging debt and speculation at the expense of savings and investment helped the US economy? The Deep State can’t answer or even acknowledge these questions because they all touch on its failures.

    Brexit, Donald Trump, other populist, nationalist movements catching fire, and the rise of the alternative media are wrecking balls aimed at an already structurally unsound and teetering building that would eventually collapse on its own. The shenanigans in the US after Trump’s election—violent protests, hysterical outbursts, the vote recount effort, the proof-free Russian hacking allegations, “fake news,” and the attempt to sway electoral college electors—are the desperate screams of those trapped inside.

    Regrettably, the building analogy is imperfect, because it implies that those inside are helpless and that the collapse will only harm them. In its desperation, incompetence, and corrupt nihilism, the Deep State can wreak all sorts of havoc, up to and including the destruction of humanity. Trump represents an opportunity to strike a blow against the Deep State, but the chances it will be lethal are minimal and the dangers obvious.

    The euphoria over his victory cannot obscure a potential consequence: it may hasten and amplify the destruction and resultant chaos when the Deep State finally topples. Anyone who thinks Trump’s victory sounds an all clear is allowing hope to triumph over experience and what should have been hard-won wisdom.

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Today’s News 22nd December 2016

  • Paul Craig Roberts Warns "As the Coup Against Trump Fails, the Threat Against His Life Rises"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The use of the presstitute media to deny Trump the Republican presidential nomination failed.

    The use of the presstitute media to deny Trump victory in the presidential election failed.

    The vote recount failed.

    The effort to sway the Electoral College failed.

    But the effort continues.

    The CIA report on Russia’s alleged interference in the US presidential election ordered by Obama is in process. Faked evidence is a hallmark of CIA operations.

    In their determination to seal Trump’s ears against environmental concerns, a group of environmentalists plan to disrupt the inauguration. This in itself is of little consequence, but chaos presents opportunity for assassination.

    Trump himself seems to think he is in danger. According to MSNBC, Trump intends to supplement his Secret Service protection with private security. As there is evidence of CIA complicity in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy (film shows Secret Service agents ordered away from JFK’s limo immediately prior to his assassination), Trump, who is clearly seen as a threat by the military/security complex, is not being paranoid. MSNBC implies that Trump’s private security is to suppress protesters, as if government security forces have shown any compunction about suppressing protesters.

    This provides an indication of the threat that the CIA sees in Trump:

    John F. Kennedy famously threatened to "smash the CIA into a thousand pieces." But ultimately, the 35th president lost his solitary battle to completely break the power of the deep state.

     

    Though I respect Kennedy, I believe Donald Trump is a much more serious proposition.

     

    Donald Trump is Michael Corleone. He will keep his friends close, and his enemies closer (including the likes of John Bolton). But those he doesn't keep closer, he will ruthlessly "screw against the wall" for targeting him.

     

    The no-nonsense Mike Pompeo, Trump's nominee for CIA director, will be the hatchet man for this merciless house cleaning operation.

     

    Come January 20th, the reckoning begins.

    Global Research’s Michel Chossudovsky has explained that Trump’s peaceful approach to Russia aligns him with oligarchs, whose wealth benefits from business deals with Russia, and puts Trump at odds with the military/security oligarchs, who benefit from the one trillion dollar annual military/security budget. The latter group have been in control since President Eisenhower warned us about them and can muster deep state forces against a Trump presidency.

    To take on a group like this requires a tough SOB. Anything less than Trump wouldn’t have a chance. Indeed, if Douglas Valentine’s just published book, The CIA As Organized Crime (Clarity Press, 2017) is even half true, Trump’s life is certainly at risk.

    Donald Trump is clearly no saint. Given what we are up against—dangerous tensions between nuclear powers and the military/security complex’s stake in these tensions—a saint is not what the situation calls for.

    The military/security complex has been entrenched since NATO’s formation on April 4, 1949, a provocation that preceded by six years the formation of the Warsaw Pact on May 14, 1955. Any president willing to confront this entrenched deep state superpower deserves the support of all of us.

  • San Fran Billionaire Luanches Plan To House Homeless In Shipping Containers

    Last year we noted, via the Liberty Blitzkrieg blog, that rents in San Francisco and surrounding areas had grown so out of control that even Ivy Leaguers, like 31 year old Luke Iseman of The Wharton School, were having a hard time making ends meet.  After growing tired of renting a run down, tiny apartment for $4,200 per month, Iseman decided to take a novel approach to housing.  So he rented out a warehouse space and filled it with 11 steel shipping containers that he now rents out as makeshift apartments for $1,000 per month.  We learn more from Bloomberg:

    Luke Iseman has figured out how to afford the San Francisco Bay area. He lives in a shipping container.

     

    The Wharton School graduate’s 160-square-foot box has a camp stove and a shower made of old boat hulls. It’s one of 11 miniature residences inside a warehouse he leases across the Bay Bridge from the city, where his tenants share communal toilets and a sense of adventure. Legal? No, but he’s eluded code enforcers who rousted what he calls cargotopia from two other sites. If all goes according to plan, he’ll get a startup out of his response to the most expensive U.S. housing market.

     

    Iseman collects $1,000 a month for each of the 11 structures parked in the 17,000-square-foot warehouse he rents for $9,100. Tenants include a Facebook Inc. engineer, a SolarCity Corp. programmer and a bicycle messenger.

    Screen Shot 2015-08-03 at 10.41.45 AM

     

    Now, billionaire California real estate developer John Sobrato is looking to implement a similar plan in Santa Clara to house a portion of the city’s 6,500 homeless.  The plan calls for converting 200 steel shipping containers into a mix of 160 and 240 square foot micro apartments that could then be rented out homeless and low-income families. 

    Sobrato, who has spent much of his career building office space for many of Silicon Valley’s technology giants, asked the Santa Clara City Council for exclusive negotiating rights to lease a 2.5-acre plot of city-owned land, three miles south of the San Francisco 49ers football stadium and currently leased to a Hyundai dealership. His plan for the lot calls for a mix of 160- and 240-square-foot units, large enough for a kitchenette and bathroom with shower, which he said could be fashioned out of re-purposed shipping containers.

     

    Under the plan, the developer asked for a 57-year lease at the cost of $1 a year. In return, the Sobrato Organization, based in Cupertino, would build and own the apartments, then lease them back to Santa Clara County, which would hire property management and homeless service providers. The project, called Innovation Place, could open as soon as 2018, with half the units rented to homeless and half offered to renters earning between 50 and 80 percent of the area’s median income.

    Mock ups of the proposed housing complex were presented at the Santa Clara city counsel meeting:

    Container Homes

    Container Homes

    Container Homes

     

    Of course, not everyone is supportive of Sobrato’s efforts.  Nearby neighbors, who are undoubtedly paying $1,000’s of dollars per month for their shoe boxes, have already started an online petition to shut down the project.

    What has not been stated in this proposal, is how the nearby neighborhood is already being negatively affected by the mismanaged apartment complexes to the north of this potential landing spot for the homeless. Nearly 5 blocks of mismanaged, high density, low-income housing already exists across the street. Due to these apartments and the high density living that accompanies these apartments, nearby neighborhoods are experiencing a spike in crime, drug use, alcohol use, litter and lack of available parking. The nearby neighborhood streets, which at one time were quiet are now being used as a main thoroughfare for vehicles and pedestrians. Cars are being broken into and keyed and houses are being burglarized. There have been multiple hit-and-runs associated with the extra foot and vehicle traffic and the police have been called out multiple times for “suspicious” individuals either loitering around the neighborhood or sleeping in their cars.

    NIMBY

     

    Isn’t it so interesting how the liberal elites of San Francisco are always the most vocal supporters of any number of federal subsidy programs for low-income families…but we guess that only applies to the extent those low-income families stay far away from their posh, suburban, “safe places.”

  • Mass Deception

    Submitted by 720Global's Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    Janet Yellen

    At the December 14, 2016 FOMC press conference, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen responded to a reporter’s question about equity valuations and the possibility that equities are in a bubble by stating the following: “I believe it’s fair to say that they (valuations) remain within normal ranges”. She further justified her statement, by comparing equity valuations to historically low interest rates.

    On May 5, 2015, Janet Yellen stated the following: “I would highlight that equity-market valuations at this point generally are quite high,” Ms. Yellen said. “Not so high when you compare returns on equity to returns on safe assets like bonds, which are also very low, but there are potential dangers there.”

    In both instances, she hedged her comments on equity valuations by comparing them with the interest rate environment. In May of 2015, Yellen said equity-market valuations “are quite high” and today she claims they are “within normal ranges”? The data shown in the table below clearly argues otherwise.

    Interestingly, not only are equity valuations currently higher than in May of 2015 but so too are interest rates.

    Further concerning, how does one define “normal”? Does a price-to-earnings ratio that has only been experienced twice in over hundred years represent normal? Do interest rates near historical lows with the unemployment rate approaching 40-year lows represent normal? Is there anything normal about a zero-interest rate monetary policy and quadrupling of the Fed’s balance sheet?

    Does the Federal Reserve, more so than the collective wisdom of millions of market participants, now think that it not only knows where interest rates should be but also what equity valuations are “normal”?

    One should expect that the person in the seat of Chair of the Federal Reserve would have the decency to present facts in an honest, consistent and coherent manner. It is not only her job but her duty and obligation.

    Homebuilders

    On December 15, 2016, CNBC reported the following:The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 70, the highest level since July 2005. Fifty is the line between positive and negative sentiment. The index has not jumped by this much in one month in 20 years.”

    The graph below shows how much house one can afford at various interest rates assuming a $3,000 mortgage payment.

    Over the past two months U.S. mortgage rates increased almost a full percent from 3.50% to 4.375%. Given such an increase, a prospective homeowner determined to limit their mortgage payment to $3,000 a month would need to seek a 10% reduction in the price of a house. In the current interest rate environment, this equates to drop from $668,000 to $601,000 in order to achieve a $3,000 a month mortgage payment. One would expect that homebuilders temper their optimism, given that a key determinant of housing demand and ultimately their companies’ bottom lines is facing a sturdy headwind.

    Advice/Summary

    The point in highlighting these examples is to remind you that people’s opinions, especially those with a vested interest in a certain outcome, may not always be trustworthy. We simply urge you to examine the facts and data before blindly relying on others.

    We leave you with historical insight from a few so-called experts:

    • “We will not have any more crashes in our time.”: John Maynard Keynes 1927
    • There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue” : Andrew Mellon 1929
    • Stock prices are likely to moderate in the coming year but that doesn’t mean the party is coming to an end.” : Phil Dow 1999
    • The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.” : Ben Bernanke 2008

  • Goldman Warns "China Remains A Key Risk", Sees Yuan Downside Accelerating

    With Bitcoin at 3 year highs, China’s renewed efforts to curb declines in its currency are doing little to stop yuan bears who have sent forward devaluation expectations to record highs and options positioning to six-month lows. And judging by Goldman Sachs' outlook – a potential resurgence in Chinese growth fears early next year, but more broadly, a continued bumpy deceleration – things are not getting better anytime soon.

    As Bloomberg notes, traders have turned increasingly negative amid tighter liquidity, sending bets for further losses soaring. The gap between forward contracts wagering on the offshore yuan a year from now versus its current level is heading for a record monthly jump…

     

    Just as the extra cost for options to sell the currency against the dollar hit a six-month high relative to prices for contracts to buy.

     

    The currency is facing a triple whammy of accelerating capital outflows, faster U.S. interest-rate increases and concerns over domestic financial markets as liquidity tightens. Strategists say its weakening, set to be the biggest this year in more than two decades, may accelerate as the government restores the annual quota for citizens to convert yuan holdings into foreign exchange. And Goldman Sachs warns, China remains a key risk to watch…

    Where we stand now:

    Broader concerns about China risk derailing global growth and markets proved somewhat short-lived. After the S&P 500 hit its low for the year on February 11, two days after we published, better economic data and a sense that the Fed would react to global concerns—confirmed by the dovish March FOMC meeting—helped improve market sentiment. Political events in the western hemisphere have since broadly taken center stage in global markets, leaving China concerns in the background. But the reality is that growth—on some level—did take a hit; for example, US GDP growth came in at an anemic 1.1% annualized in 1H2016, owing in part to weakness in the industrial sector and energy-related activity but largely due to tighter financial conditions primarily in the wake of China concerns. China growth itself also remained relatively weak in 1H as measured by the GS China Current Activity Indicator, which declined towards 4% in 1Q and began to climb slowly thereafter.

     

    Stabilizing growth in China has helped push China to the background of investor concerns. In order to stabilize growth and meet official GDP targets, China’s policymakers continued to pursue an ambitious stimulus plan begun in early 2015 that entailed pausing fiscal reforms, sharply cutting interest rates, loosening housing policies, and increasing credit growth. The result: GDP growth looks set to meet the target of 6.5%-7% for 2016, and producer prices are rising after years of deflation.

     

    But policies that re-ignited growth in the short-term just increase concern about the future, especially in terms of credit. We estimate that total credit growth adjusted for muni bond issuance accelerated from 13% yoy in 1Q15 to 17% yoy as of 2Q16, and to 20% yoy when including shadow lending not captured in official statistics. In short, the potential credit problems in China have not receded, and indeed have likely grown given the very fast pace of credit expansion.

     

    Policymakers have taken note of these potentially destabilizing dynamics and have refocused on risk management; indeed, China’s recent Central Economic Work Conference to plan for next year’s economic policy included strong statements on controlling financial risks. Risk management measures employed in recent months include increasing short-term repo rates, reining in off-balance sheet exposures such as wealth management products, and rolling out measures to try to curb home price appreciation. Fiscal policy also seems likely to tighten at least slightly in coming months. But any tightening will likely prove short-lived given that meeting growth targets will remain critical in 2017—a year of leadership transition.

     

    Our RMB view has also become more negative, presenting risk to the US dollar and S&P 500. When we published at the height of market anxiety around China, we were relatively constructive on the RMB, arguing that a large, one-off devaluation was unlikely and envisioning only a “mild” trade-weighted depreciation (against the CFETS basket, the CNY has depreciated 4.5% since then). But capital outflow pressures have remained, particularly in the context of US dollar strength. Despite the government’s official focus on a trade-weighted currency basket, higher $/CNY fixings are still a powerful signal that can easily re-ignite capital flight, as households and firms anticipate a faster pace of depreciation.

     

     

    Indeed, the PBOC’s FX reserves fell US$69bn to US$3,052bn in November, the largest decline since January. The US election has reinforced these dynamics given the strengthening dollar and potential for trade frictions, motivating tighter restrictions on capital flows. Global markets have so far taken these developments in stride, but the risk of a repeat of related equity market volatility remains, which could impact the pace of Fed tightening and dollar strength.

    What to look for in 2017 (and beyond):

    A potential resurgence in Chinese growth fears early next year, but more broadly, a continued bumpy deceleration. We expect sequential GDP growth to decelerate into 1Q17 to c.5.5% annualized on recent tightening measures. But we expect a rapid pivot back to stimulus should the growth target look at risk, especially given next year’s leadership transition.

     

    Continued concerns about China credit growth. Although policymakers have introduced tightening measures to reduce the risk of asset price bubbles, China’s reliance on credit growth, which undermines financial stability, remains a key risk.

     

    RMB downside, posing potential risk to the stronger US dollar and global stock markets. We forecast a $/CNY fix of 7.00, 7.15 and 7.30 in 3, 6 and 12 months, respectively, and long $/CNY is one of our 2016 Top Trades. The pace of capital outflows and the evolution of the fix warrant monitoring; in our view, as long as the fix simply offsets dollar strength and capital outflows are contained, global risk appetite should hold up.

    China remains a key risk to watch.

  • College Student Earns 4.0 GPA, Then Drops Out: "You Are Being Scammed!"

    Submitted by Lance Schuttler via TheMindUnleashed.com,

    Billy Williams just finished his first college semester and did so with the all-impressive 4.0 GPA. Instead of celebrating his accomplishments with friends and family, he decided to drop out of college entirely.

    willson

    Billy made a facebook post that is now going viral in which he explains his reasoning for dropping out:

    “Now that I’ve finished my first semester I think it’s safe to say… FUCK COLLEGE. Now before all you of you go batshit crazy… I have a few points to make.

     

    1. Yes I have dropped out after finishing my first semester (with a 4.0 GPA). And it’s one of the best choices I’ve ever made. Not because I am averse to learning, but actually the exact opposite.

     

    2. YOU ARE BEING SCAMMED. You may not see it today or tomorrow, but you will see it some day. Heck you may have already seen it if you’ve been through college. You are being put thousands into debt to learn things you will never even use. Wasting 4 years of your life to be stuck at a paycheck that grows slower than the rate of inflation. Paying $200 for a $6 textbook. Being taught by teacher’s who have never done what they’re teaching. Average income has increased 5x over the last 40 years while cost of college has increased 18x. You’re spending thousands of dollars to learn information you won’t ever even use just to get a piece of paper. I once even had an engineer tell me “I learned more in my first 30 days working than in my 5 years of college.” What does that tell you about this system? There are about a million more ways you’re being scammed into this.. just watch the video i’m gonna comment if you want to see more.

     

    3. Colleges are REQUIRING people to spend money taking gen. ed. courses to learn about the quadratic formula (and other shit they will never use) when they could be giving classes on MARRIAGE and HOW TO DO YOUR TAXES.

     

    4. Gosh there are so many more reasons I could add, but just comment if you disagree or have reasons to add. I’d love to add to the discussion. TAG a friend in college, Tag your parents, share this if you agree, disagree. Let’s just talk about it. Heck post a picture of yourself flipping off something you think is unjust in our society.”

    Billy is right too that the price of college continues to soar.

    Ray Franke, a professor of Education at the University of Massachusetts, Boston said:

    “If you look at the long-term trend of college tuition, it has been rising almost six percent above the rate of inflation. That’s brought immense pressure from the media and general public, asking whether college is still worth it.

    In 2015, Harvard’s annual tuition and fees (not including room and board) would cost a person $45,278, which is more than 17 times the 1971-72 cost. If annual increases of tuition had simply tracked the inflation rate since 1971, 2016’s tuition would be just $15,189.

    According to CNBC, college enrollment peaked in 2011, and has been decreasing ever since. This is no doubt in part to a family’s ability to pay the tuition, room and board and other related expenses. For example, in order to pay for a year of college at Harvard today would take the median household income nearly one year of paychecks. Back in 1971, it would have taken about 13 weeks of paychecks per the household median income.

    Today the student debt is over $1.26 trillion dollars with over 44 million Americans in debt from student loans. 2016’s graduates on average are over $36,000 dollars in debt, which is up 6% from just one year ago.  

    What can be done to alleviate this situation? Why do banks get bailed out (2008 Lehman crisis) for cheating the world, while students must continue to pay a debt? Why is a private institution (The Federal Reserve) in charge of this nation’s money and finances? How will students continue to be able to go to college when the price continues to skyrocket as the federal minimum wage stays stuck at $7.25 an hour? At some point soon, the masses won’t take it anymore from the banking cartel. The education system is in for some major changes very soon.

  • Mysterious Military Flyover Above Manhattan Was A Trump "Emergency Relocation Drill"

    One week ago, New Yorkers were captivated, and unnerved, by a 40-minute long military exercise in which one USAF C-130 and several HH-60 Pave Hawk helicopters could be seen circling at very low altitudes above Manhattan. While the US military kept silent about the overflight, U.S. Air Force Col. Nicholas Broccoli, the vice commander of the Air National Guard’s 106th Rescue Wing, said the aircraft were conducting “standard military training.”  However, one look at the flight pattern of the plane shows there was seemingly little that was “standard” about a C-130 making dozens of circles over midtown Manhattan.

    Today we learn that the overflights were far more than simply “standard military training.” According to DNAinfo, the military airplane and two helicopters doing loops over Midtown last week were conducting an “emergency relocation” planning mission in case they needed to extract President-elect Donald Trump during an emergency or attack.

    Citing sources, DNAInfo said that the flyovers were part of an “emergency relocation drill” designed to identify locations, primarily in Central Park, where a chopper could touch down near Trump’s home inside Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue and 56th Street, and safely evacuate Trump and others from the city.

    “It was the military doing their homework,” one source said. “They were making plans how to remove him, mapping plans and strategizing,” added a second source.

    In the event of an emergency, the president would be whisked by the Secret Service north to the park, and then flown in a helicopter to the nation’s capital or a secret government site in Virginia or West Virginia, sources said. The aircraft models spotted during the exercise can fly long distances without refueling and can also refuel in mid-air if necessary, sources said.

    Surprisingly, the NYPD was given only short notice about the flyovers, and were never informed that the military would be using a plane as large a C-130 with its 130-foot wing span. “They should have told people they were doing recon, and going to fly at low altitudes, instead of keeping it a secret,” a law enforcement source said. “People were scared, and rightly so.”

    “Trump is the president and people would understand that they are doing a recon mission for an emergency,” the source continued.

    One day after the flyover, NYPD Commissioner James O’Neill told reporters that the city was working on improving notification procedures. “Usually when there is a flyover, we get something through our Operations unit. It’s sent out to everybody,” O’Neill said last Wednesday at an unrelated press conference. “That notification is supposed to go out through OEM [the Office of Emergency Management], so I know OEM is working with the military to make sure the proper notifications are made. [OEM Commissioner] Joe Esposito is going to have to make sure he stays in contact with the military for future notifications.”

    “The public should know about that. What’s transpired in New York City over the last 15 years, we need to know that,” O’Neill added.

    DNAinfo further adds that according to a federal agent who witnessed the circling aircraft, and who spent most of his career protecting presidents, “the park is the closest place to land, even if they keep a Marine 1 helicopter up here in the city, or in base in New Jersey.” The ex-agent said last week’s aircraft basically conducted a dozen loops from 42 Street west to Riverside Park, then headed to the East River and south back to 42nd Street.

    “I have never seen a military training maneuver in the city,” the agent observed. “That type of rescue work is usually done by the NYPD, the FDNY, or the Coast Guard, not the military.”

    The C-130 which was the airplane confuicting the drills, travels up to 300 mph, is fundamentally a cargo transport plane that can be filled with everything from armed personnel to armored vehicles, including presidential limousines. The plane can also land on short runways.

    Meanwhile, the military continued to deny the purpose of the exercise: a spokesman for the New York State Division of Military and Naval Affairs said last week only that the maneuver was part of a “routine training mission” that originated from the 106th Rescue Wing at the Francis S. Gabreski Airport in Westhampton Beach on Long Island. He reiterated the same today. A spokesman for the US Secret Service in Washington did not immediately respond to a call seeking comment.  As a matter of policy, however, the agency routinely says it does not discuss specifics of Presidential security.

  • Baby Boomers Increasingly Having Social Security Checks Garnished To Cover Student Loan Payments

    According to a new report from the Government Accountability Office, the federal government is increasingly garnishing Social Security benefits to help cover student loans payments owed by baby boomers.  According the Wall Street Journal, a total of $1.1 billion has been garnished since 2001 with $171 million being collected in 2015 alone. 

    The government has collected about $1.1 billion from Social Security recipients of all ages to go toward unpaid student loans since 2001, including $171 million last year, the Government Accountability Office said Tuesday. Most affected recipients in fiscal year 2015—114,000—were age 50 or older and receiving disability benefits, with the typical borrower losing about $140 a month. About 38,000 were above age 64.

     

    The report highlights the sharp growth in baby boomers entering retirement with student debt, most of it borrowed years ago to cover their own educations but some used to pay for their children’s schooling. Overall, about seven million Americans age 50 and older owed about $205 billion in federal student debt last year. About 1 in 3 were in default, raising the likelihood that garnishments will increase as more boomers retire.

     

    “I believe this is the tip of the iceberg of what may be to come if we don’t work harder on this problem,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, the top Democrat on the Senate Special Committee on Aging.

    Student Loans

     

    Of course, the mere suggestion that people should be responsible for repaying debt they’ve incurred was enough to throw Elizabeth Warren into a tailspin as she described the idea of garnishing social security benefits as “predatory.”

    The report showed garnishments left thousands with Social Security checks below the poverty line, prompting Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call the practice “predatory.” Both lawmakers said they will push legislation to ban it.

     

    But consumer advocates and some congressional Democrats say the government’s tactics have become too aggressive, targeting many borrowers who are destitute and have no hope of repaying. Most Social Security recipients rely on their checks as their primary source of income, other research shows.

    Meanwhile, the WSJ points out that Obama’s “income-driven repayment” (IDR) plans only serve to make the student loan problem worse.  Since the payment plans only cover a portion of monthly interest payments, debt balances continue to grow over time leaving borrowers with even larger debt balances as they reach retirement age. 

    Daniel Pianko, a managing director of University Ventures, which invests in for-profit and nonprofit schools, says the government may be worsening the troubles of older borrowers by promoting programs that set monthly payments as a share of borrowers’ earnings. Payments under “income-driven repayment” programs frequently cover only part of the interest and not the principal, allowing balances to grow.

     

    In that sense, the income-driven repayment programs have the same effect as payday lenders, trapping poor borrowers in a growing amount of debt.

     

    “Every month and every year the loan balances go up, which means by definition this problem will only get worse,” Mr. Pianko said.

    We just wrote about another Government Accountability Office report that blasted the Education Department’s understanding of basic mathematics and accounting concepts after finding the department drastically underestimated the costs of Obama’s student loan forgiveness programs.  The 100-page report entitled “Federal Student Loans:  Education Needs to Improve Its Income Driven Repayment Plan Budget Estimates” found that taxpayers could be on the hook for $137BN of student loans to be forgiven over the coming years as a result of Obama’s executive actions on IDR plans.

    Student Loans

     

    Oh well, what’s another $50 billion or so…we hear a lot of baby boomers vote so better give them what they want.

    Baby Boomers 

  • CalPERS Board Votes To Maintain Ponzi Scheme With Only 50bps Reduction Of Discount Rate

    A few weeks ago we asked whether CalPERS would rely on sound financial judgement and math to set their rate of return expectations going forward or whether they would cave to political pressure to maintain artificially high return hurdles that they'll never meet but help to maintain their ponzi scheme a little longer (see "CalPERS Weighs Pros/Cons Of Setting Reasonable Return Targets Vs. Maintaining Ponzi Scheme").  The decision faced by CALPERS was whether their long-term assumed rate of return on assets should be lowered from the current 7.5% down to a more reasonable 6%.  Well, we now have our answer and it seems the board erred on the side of maintaining the ponzi with a decision to reduce the fund's discount rate by only 50 bps, to 7%, to be phased in over 3 years.

    Of course, this decision should come as little surprise to our readers as we concluded our previous post with the following prediction:

    We've seen this battle between math/logic and politicians played out numerous times in states all across the country.  Somehow we suspect that "math/logic" will continue to lose…better to bury your head in the sand for a couple of more years and pretend there is no problem.

    Per The Sacramento Bee, the CalPERS board approved the discount rate adjustment with a vote of 6-1 and the reduction will be phased in over 3 years starting next July. 

    CalPERS moved to slash its official investment forecast Tuesday, a dramatic step that will translate into billions of dollars in higher annual pension contributions from the state, local governments and school districts.

     

    Employees hired after January 2013, when a statewide pension reform law took effect, will also have to kick in more money. Older employees could see higher contributions, too, although that would be subject to contract bargaining.

     

    CalPERS’ Finance and Administration Committee voted 6-1 to lower the forecast from 7.5 percent to 7 percent in phases over three years, starting next July. Although the committee’s vote must be ratified by the entire board Wednesday, most other board members indicated they support the move as well.

     

    It would be the first adjustment to the forecast in four years.

     

    The move is a recognition that investment returns are falling and that the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, which is just 68 percent funded, needs higher contributions from government agencies to solve its long-term problems.

     

    “We’re in a low-growth (investment) environment, and it’s expected to remain that way the next five to 10 years,” board member Henry Jones said.

    While a 50bps decrease to a 7% discount rate will still trigger roughly $1 billion in incremental annual contributions from various California government entities according to Eric Stern of the California Department of Finance, it is still a long way from the fund's estimated returns of just 6.2% over the next decade which happens to match exactly their returns from the past decade.

    Calpers

     

    Of course, mathematical realities have to be weighed against the risk of disrupting the ponzi scheme and forcing several California cities to the brink of bankruptcy.

    But a CalPERS return reduction would just move the burden to other government units. Groups representing municipal governments in California warn that some cities could be forced to make layoffs and major cuts in city services as well as face the risk of bankruptcy if they have to absorb the decline through higher contributions to CalPERS.

     

    “This is big for us,” Dane Hutchings, a lobbyist with the League of California Cities, said in an interview. “We've got cities out there with half their general fund obligated to pension liabilities. How do you run a city with half a budget?”

     

    CalPERS documents show that some governmental units could see their contributions more than double if the rate of return was lowered to 6%. Mr. Hutchings said bankruptcies might occur if cities had a major hike without it being phased in over a period of years. CalPERS' annual report in September on funding levels and risks also warned of potential bankruptcies by governmental units if the rate of return was decreased.

    Meanwhile, Richard Costigan, chairman of the CalPERS finance committee, who vowed that "this is just a start," more or less admits that the decision was politically motivated to allow "municipalities and other government agencies some breathing room before they absorb the impact."

    Board members, however, defended the action as a compromise; it will help stabilize the fund while giving municipalities and other government agencies some breathing room before they absorb the impact. Richard Costigan, chairman of the finance committee, said CalPERS officials will continue to look at the fund’s investment strategies over the next year.

     

    “This is just a start,” Costigan said.

    Now all eyes will turn to the 37.6% funded Illinois pension fund, as well as many others, to see if they follow suit. 

  • Nearly 3,000 US Communities Have Lead Levels Higher Than Flint

    Submitted by Nadia Prupis via TheAntiMedia.org,

    A Reuters investigation this week uncovered nearly 3,000 different communities across the U.S. with lead levels higher than those found in Flint, Michigan, which has been the center of an ongoing water contamination crisis since 2014.

    click image for link to interactive map…

    The investigation found that many of the hot-spots are receiving little attention or funding. Local healthcare advocates said they hope the reporting will spur action from influential community leaders.

    All of the communities Reuters investigated had lead levels at least two times higher than Flint’s; more than 1,000 were four times higher. In most cases, the local data covered a 5- to 10-year period through 2015, the analysis states.

    Areas affected by lead poisoning populate the map from Texas to Pennsylvania, reported Reuters‘ M.B. Pell and Joshua Schneyer. The available data charts 21 states that are home to about 61 percent of the U.S. population.

    Despite the massive drop in lead poisoning rates since the 1970s—when heavy metals were phased out of paint and gasoline—many communities throughout the country are still at risk.

    “The national mean doesn’t mean anything for a kid who lives in a place where the risks are much higher,” said Dr. Helen Egger, chair of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry at NYU Langone Medical Center’s Child Study Center.

    Like Flint, many of the communities are mired in “legacy lead,” Reuters reported—old industrial waste, crumbling paint, or corrosive pipes. But few have received help or attention.

    Contamination in children can cause cognitive difficulties, which in turn can lead to low school performance, few job opportunities, and trouble with the law. That cycle was examined last year when 25-year-old Baltimore resident Freddie Gray died after his spine was severed in police custody. Amid protests against brutality and racism, many noted that Gray experienced lead poisoning as a child while living in an area with persistently high exposure levels.

    But the problem is nationwide and affects a vast spectrum of communities, Reuters writes. Milwaukee, Wisconsin still has “135,000 prewar dwellings with lead paint, and 70,000 with lead water service lines,” and $50 million has already been spent to protect the city’s children. Many families do not have the funds to make the repairs themselves, and laws requiring owners to remove lead from their properties are not consistent state by state.

    “Reporters visited several of the trouble spots: a neighborhood with many rundown homes in South Bend, Indiana; a rural mining town in Missouri’s Lead Belt; the economically depressed North Side of Milwaukee,” Pell and Schneyer write. “In each location, it was easy to find people whose lives have been impacted by lead exposure. While poverty remains a potent predictor of lead poisoning, the victims span the American spectrum—poor and rich, rural and urban, black and white.”

    In St. Joseph, Missouri, one of the most contaminated neighborhoods included in the study, even a local pediatrician’s children had lead poisoning.

    Earlier this month, the U.S. Senate approved a $170 million aid package to repair Flint’s corrosive pipes and fund recovery efforts. But that is 10 times the budget the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) allotted for lead poisoning assistance this year, Reuters notes.

    “I hope this data spurs questions from the public to community leaders who can make changes,” epidemiologist Robert Walker, co-chair of the CDC’s Lead Content Work Group, told Reuters. “I would think that it would turn some heads.”

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Today’s News 21st December 2016

  • MTV Removes Racist ‘Hey Fellow White Guy’s Video’; But the Internet Remembers

    I can go a lot of ways with this material. I could trigger many of you to breathe fire over the racist MTV video that mocked and demonized white males, but what’s the point? These people are irrelevant and ineffective. They’re losing the culture wars, targeting the largest group of people (white males) in the country in a feeble attempt to make them feel like shit, and the being mocked to death for it. In this case, following the release of a video which the cucks at MTV figured would be well received, they were roundly humiliated for their lameness and outward hatred for white men — forcing them to remove the video from their infantile channel.

    Remember the days when MTV only played music videos? Those were the good days.

    Now they want to delve into social engineering, but their pedigrees aren’t very good and their cognitive thinking is weak– which is why they lose.

    Tucker Carlson broached the subject this evening, talking about how wrong it was to label any race as bad, etc, etc. All of that is a secondary issue here when discussing the failed agitprop of the left. Bear in mind, this is a party that has shed over 900 legislative seats since 2010 and holds just 18 governorships and no meaningful leadership in both the house and senate.

    The left is failing, worldwide, because they’re weak, ineffective, and intellectually lazy. We can only hope for more MTV videos of this sort, in order to expedite the pushback against establishment shills.

     

     

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • 5 Arrested After Egyptian Police Bust Staged Photo Shoot Of "Wounded Aleppo Children"

    Readers who have been following the crisis in Aleppo have seen media reports of videos and photos allegedly originating from innocent children victims, pleading against the advance of the Assad forces. And while there have been various accusations that these clips, like the infamous “chemical attack” YouTube clip from 2013, were staged, such reports were promptly slammed by the mainstream media as “fake news” and roundly ignored. However, if one ever needed a reason to be skeptical of claims, photographs, and/or videos coming out of the region, and the MSM’s appeals to readers emotions based on fabricated facts, Egyptian authorities have just provided it.

    Egyptian police arrested five people in Port Said, Egypt for making staged “wounded children” photos, which they were planning to use to misrepresent on social media as photos of destruction and injured people in Syria’s Aleppo, the Egyptian Interior Ministry said on Monday. The group also made fake videos that purport to show the wreckage of air strikes in Aleppo.

    The shooting team, which included the photographer’s assistants and parents of the children, was detained in the Egypt’s province of Port Said,” the Ministry said on Facebook.

    According to the Ministry, the police witnessed the shooting process, which was taking place near the vestiges of a building destroyed as illegal under the decision of the local authorities. A girl standing in a white dress covered in “blood” that later proved to be paint, drew attention of a police officer driving by. The girl held a teddy bear covered in the same “blood” and had her arm “bandaged”.

    The Facebook statement said the videographer, his assistants, and the parents of two children who appear in the footage were detained after a trail led police to them at a building site awaiting demolition. The five have reportedly admitted they were planning to distribute their footage on social media, which was supposed to show an eight-year-old girl in a white dress and bandages, covered in red stains while holding a teddy bear.

    “A 12-year-old boy is also interviewed about what life is like under intensive Russian-backed Syrian government air strikes,” reported
    The Independent

    The photographer also admitted that he was going to publish these photos on social media as pictures of Aleppo.

    To be sure, this one instance does not mean all footage coming out of the region is fake. It also does not mean every claim made by Russian, Syrian, and Iranian officials about the conflict is true in comparison. Still, the fact remains that journalists aren’t going to rebel-held areas for fear of execution. Instead, they rely on the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is run by one anti-Assad dissident in Coventry, England. So-called Syrian activists and the shady group known as the White Helmets make up the rest of the reports in Syria, even though they both have also been largely criticized and discredited.

    Also troubling is the willingness of the conventional media to accept most of these reports at face value without ever questioning their authenticity.

    The fact the mass media disproportionately focuses on Aleppo while turning a blind eye to the horrendous crimes being committed in Yemen courtesy of the United States, the United Kingdom, and an inexperienced Saudi-led coalition indicates the media’s concerns for human rights in Syria are disingenuous, as the AntiMedia correctly notes.

  • Brandon Smith Warns The System Is Crashing: "Prepare For Bank Confiscations, Shortages, Insurgency"

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    us-army-riot

    Military, police and homeland security units have all long been preparing for riots and widespread civil unrest during a prolonged collapse.

    What is the anatomy of a breakdown?

    The past eight years have been extremely difficult for the real economy. Central bank intervention has propped up the stock market at the expense of the main street economy, at the expense of middle class security, at the expense of jobs.

    And everyone knows that game can’t continue. The question is how it will play out, and how long the game will be.

    The Federal Reserve finally announced rate hikes – planning one incremental increase after another throughout the coming Trump Administration.

    Close to a decade of stimulus, quantitative easing, zero interest rates and easy money for those on top is coming to an end. For all those who have borrowed, it means that the burden of debt is coming due – and the biggest borrower of all, the U.S. government, will face huge new costs in the form of increased interest on $14 trillion in debt:

    Rising interest rates help savers and hurt borrowers. As the biggest borrower on the planet, the U.S. government will soon begin paying more to investors holding roughly $14 trillion in Treasury debt.  “As debt continues to grow and interest rates return toward more normal levels, interest spending is slated to be the fastest growing part of the budget.” (source)

    This crunch could impact state, businesses, municipalities and individual households in a big way as well. Meanwhile, the presidency of Donald Trump has changed the surface of the political landscape entirely, and no one is quite sure what will happen – though plenty on the left have been casting Trump as a neo-Hitlerian figure.

    Brandon Smith, who runs Alt-Market.com, may not know the future either, but he has developed a very strong track record for predicting the “surprise” victories for Brexit in the UK, and for Trump in the U.S.

    But he didn’t just predict their win at the polls, but that these new signposts of the conservative, populist uprising would be used by the elite – who allowed these electoral changes – in order to scapegoat the coming financial collapse.

    As things continue to play out, he has been so far proven stunningly accurate, and should not be readily ignored.

    Will Trump’s presidency be better understood in hindsight as what has already been dubbed: ‘Operation Shift Blame’?

    Here’s what Brandon Smith said a couple of weeks ago in a focused interview with the X22 Report:

    The Elite Already Have The Collapse Planned, ‘Operation Shift Blame’ Is A Go: Brandon Smith

    As Brandon Smith argues in the interview, the Trump presidency, if he is right, is all about having a scapegoat for the crash of the economy during his watch.

    If the populists, nationalists, and conservatives are blamed, then their views are discredited, and momentum to control the aftermath – and restore order to the system – falls back to the establishment that has, until now, been the target of growing disdain by a population over-run by the status quo and its series of disasters.

    But with Trump – undeniably a spectacle to all Americans – the elite have a narrative that will keep people fighting among themselves, divided by race, gender, politics and ideology.

    Though President Obama and the circles in Washington keep insisting the economy is recovering, improving and providing, nothing could be further from the truth.

    The economy has been “kept on life support” since 2008, when there should have been a bigger crash… but that, too, will come due. They’ve been artificially propping up the system with stimulus measures, and simply stopping that intervention will usher in a collapse. According to Brandon Smith:

    “They’re setting it up to where a crash occurs during a Trump presidency, and Trump and conservatives are blamed in the process.”

    It won’t happen overnight. The economic collapse is a “process, not an event” – one that takes place over the course of several years, even a decade. According to Brandon Smith, 2017 will likely see a major acceleration of that collapse.

    As the fiscal situation becomes more and more untenable, and the government more desperate to pay the bills, we will likely see government pensions confiscated, promises benefits reduced or delayed, and other measures to pay debts.

    On the pretext of sustaining the financial stability of the system, banks may end up “locking out” accounts, seizing funds and account holders and investors could face severe haircuts.

    America may well see credit freezes, shortages on the shelves, deliveries could stop, and people could lose their minds as ordinary life is interrupted. As Smith argues,

    “Removing stimulus and ‘turning off the spigot’ will initiate collapse on its own…. and end up being worse than the Great Depression

     

    Smith: “Whatever’s going to happen is going to happen between now and early 2018, because that’s their window of time to create enough chaos and desperation in order to convince people, to rationalize the idea of switching to a global currency system. After that, I would expect there would be a process of acclimating the public to this new system, and I would expect that a lot of countries would be in third world conditions for a while after that.”

    A combination of hyperinflation, and deflationary pressures could further wreck the economy, and even decimate the value of the dollar. Further consequences could spiral out of control from there.

    Already, there are plans on the books for government to use its nearly-unlimited powers to seize private assets at a personal or institutional level in order to meet the needs, perceived or real, of society. Numerous executive orders give fiat authority to the executive branch to wield dictatorial control and violate private property and personal assets – not the least of which will be private holdings in gold and silver.

    The elites have long suggested that the rise of a truly global currency will replace the crash of the dollar system, and the severe economic decline of the United States.  This has been in the works for a long, long time.

    The system is going to crash regardless… so, arguably, this is how they are planning for it to play out.

    The only question left, is: how will you prepare?

    For those who want to survive, and be as unscathed as possible, that means building up a supply of food, water, guns, gold, alternative heating and power, medicine, barter items and other essential supplies. It also means preparing psychologically to deal with the loss of income, the breakdown of groceries, supplies and easily-available goods; and it means to distancing oneself from the most vulnerable – and potentially unstable – segments of society.

    In particular, it may be wise to leave major urban centers, or have a viable exit strategy to a place that is both rural and self-sustaining. Of course, these are major preparations that have to be made according to the individual needs of each family.

    However, the time is past to pretend that these things are not happening; it is time to make some very serious plans for what you will do during what happens next.

    Just look to Venezuela or India for a glimpse of how raw things can become once the fiat paper currency ceases to flow freely, or provide for the life that most have become accustomed to living.

    As Brandon Smith argues:

    “I think the plan is to kill the dollar’s world reserve status, and that will severely limit the dollar’s value on the global market. We’ll still have our green dollars, with the presidents, but the value will no longer be controlled by the Federal Reserve… I think the Federal Reserve will step aside for the IMF, and the IMF will become the new global mediator of currency values.”

     

    The United States will be hit the hardest, with the reliance upon the dollar’s reserve currency status…. “and an extreme shift from first world down to third world living conditions. It will be a disaster, there will be people who will die during this process, [just as people did] during the Great Depression. It’s going to be a disaster.”

    Because people in the general public aren’t prepared even to sustain a few days without power, food and water, people will be pushed into extremes – desperate, rioting, looting, violence, and other destructive behaviors that are hallmarks of a breakdown.

    In short, the United States will see a debased situation that is unprecedented in its more than 200 year history. Even the Great Depression could be eclipsed by the extreme events to come – but again, it won’t happen overnight.

    “Some will react violently, but I think the elites have staged the situation in such a way that a lot of people will be confused as to who to blame. And that’s the great advantage that they have, is that they’ve staged the situation to where, especially people on the left, they have an automatically built-in bias to blame either Donald Trump, or Republicans, or conservatives in general. On the right, I think you’re going to have a lot of conservatives blaming the left as [for] sabotaging Trump and ruining his chances of fixing things.”

     

    “You’re also going to have all kinds of different, I think, events in between – black swan events, terrorist attacks – that really keep people confused and looking every other direction, except at the global bankers. That’s what they want… they don’t want anyone focused on them. They’re going to create as much gas as possible during all this to keep people at each other’s throats. They’re going to be sitting on the Riviera… and watching.”

     

    “Because we are getting to a point in history where the globalists are more exposed than ever before – their schemes, who they are, the organizations they’ve built. If the general public becomes aware of who they are, and the fact that they’re behind this crash, it would be all over for them. You’re talking torches and pitchforks – so they need to keep mass confusion, and keep everyone focused on each other, and not them, or the entire apparatus falls apart.”

     

    “If we can get enough people aware of, and focused on the bankers first… then we might be able to, at least, remove them from the picture and rebuild in a proper manner. What this is really all about is who is going to rebuild. The system is going to crash regardless, but we still can determine who rebuilds afterwards. If it’s them rebuilding, then we’re kind of done for, because they’re going to use the crisis as a rationale for centralizing everything into their one world system. If we can remove them from the picture, then we might have the chance to rebuild a freer system.”

    If things get bad enough, there could be an actual civil war again in America – in fact, it may become unavoidable.

    People are at extremes right now, and the divisions between the left and right are, in many respects, deeper than they have ever been.

    Those who are addicted to government assistance are in for a rude awakening, and those who work for a living face the very real possibility of seeing the American Dream crushed once and for all, in an era from which there will be no turning back.

    But the pages of history have not been written, and if they have, they still stand to be edited by real world events. If people get their heads wrapped around what is really happening, perhaps the true villains can be addressed, and power can be kept out of the hands in whom it is most dangerous.

    Perhaps, there is a chance that liberty could one day be restored, but first, people must prepare to endure a long, hard fight.

  • 71% Of Americans Don't Believe Russia Was Responsible For Election-Related Hacks

    The mainstream media has orchestrating a month-long propaganda blitz to convince the American people that “Russian hackers,” led by Vladimir Putin, stole the election from Hillary Clinton.  They endlessly quoted “anonymous sources” from inside the CIA, while never actually presenting a single shred of tangible evidence, to advance their narrative.

    But, in an epic illustration of just how little credibility the mainstream media has, despite their best efforts, over 70% of the American public still doesn’t think Russia influenced the 2016 election. Per a new poll conducted by Morning Consult, only 29% of Americans feel they “know with near certainty that Russia is responsible” for the hacking of DNC and Podesta emails…of course, we would question how anyone could possibly know with “near certainty” given that no actual evidence has been presented but we’ll take their word for it.

    Russia Influence

     

    Not surprisingly, results were largely split along party lines with only 14% of Republicans attributing the election hacks to Russia versus 50% of Democrats. 

    Meanwhile, “Democrats in Congress” won the prize for the “least trusted” group in Washington D.C. while the CIA, NSA and FBI are still viewed as credible organizations by nearly two-thirds of Americans…so much for Snowden’s efforts to reveal the massive illegal spy operations conducted by the NSA on pretty much every American citizen on a daily basis…no one seems to care much anymore.

    Morning Consult Poll

     

    So, does this story now qualify as “fake news” given that the mainstream media failed to present a single page of tangible evidence and 71% of Americans don’t believe it?

  • US Population Grows At Slowest Pace Since The Great Depression; Residents Flee Illinois Again

    According to data released by the US Census, in 2016 the U.S. population grew at the lowest rate since the Great Depression, while the state of New York shrank for the first time in a decade. The biggest loser, again, was Illinois which shrank for a third consecutive year, losing 38,000 people, mostly from the Chicago area.

    The overall slowdown was due to uptick in deaths, a slowdown in births and a fractional drop in immigration, all of which damped American population growth for the year ended July 1. The 0.7% increase, to 323.1 million, was the smallest on record since 1936-37, according to William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.

    New York State, whose loss of 1,900 people put its population at 19.7 million, is shrinking because residents are leaving for other states. It has an aging population that is retiring in warmer places such as Florida, or staying put and dying, as the WSJ put it. “As a state that has more people leaving than going [in], that is not a good thing,” said Jan Vink, a researcher at Cornell University’s program on applied demographics. “People claim it’s about the taxes, it’s about the weather. There are many reasons.”

    It’s not just New York which saw a modest exodus: the figures showed Americans continue to leave the North for Western states, with Utah, Nevada, Idaho and several others in that region topping the country in percentage growth.  About 593,000 people left the Northeast and Midwest to move to the South and West this year, slightly more than during the prior one-year period, as the retiring cohort gets bigger.

    However, the biggest state loser in population terms by a big margin was Illinois, which lost more residents in 2016 than any other state, losing 37,508 people, which puts its population at the lowest its been in at least a decade. This year marks the third consecutive year in which Illinois is among the few states to lose residents, putting its population at 12,801,539 people. Illinois had only the second-greatest decline rate in 2016, however, as even with the population drop it continues to be the fifth-most populous state. West Virginia had the greatest decline rate this year.

    Illinois’ population first began to drop in 2014, when the state lost 7,391 people. That number more than tripled in 2015, with a loss of 22,194 people, and further multiplied in 2016. The plunge is mainly a result of the large number of residents leaving the state in the past year — about 114,144 in all — which couldn’t be offset by new residents and births, according to census data measuring population from July 2015 to July 2016.

    Making matters worse for the state’s various semi-solvent pension plans which are dependent , by almost every metric Illinois’ population will continue to sharply decline in the coming years as more residents call it quits on the state they call home according to the Chicago Tribune. The Tribune last year surveyed dozens of former residents who had fled within the past five years, and all offered their own list of reasons for doing so. Common reasons included high taxes, the state budget stalemate, crime, the unemployment rate and the weather.

    Census data released last year suggested the root of the problem was the Chicago area, which in 2015 saw its first population decline since at least 1990, having lost 6,263 residents. A simple cause for that could be that, as reported earlier, Chicago’s surging murder rates are single-handedly driving up the overall national average, which in turn is forcing much of the local population to flee.

    In addition to Illinois and New York, a total of eight states saw population outflows this year, including West Virginia, Connecticut, Vermont, Wyoming and Mississippi.

    And then there are the winners, chief among which was Utah, the fastest-growing state this year with a 2% gain, added nearly 61,000 people to lift its population to 3.1 million. Gains in technology and other jobs have led to tighter labor markets, housing shortages and rising school enrollment, said Pamela Perlich, director of demographic research at the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

    “There is a new economy being created out of the carnage of the Great Recession, and in a lot of those new growth areas, Utah seems to be at the forefront,” Ms. Perlich said. “You roll back 40 years ago, and we were really pretty isolated and much more parochial here.”

    Another big gainer was Texas, whose addition of about 433,000 people accounted for 19% of the country’s growth. The state, with 27.9 million people, grew from a relatively strong flow of immigrants and people relocating there from other states.

    North Dakota, a fast grower in recent years, saw its population barely edge up this year as the state struggles with a slowdown in its oil industry. Among factors weighing on overall population growth is that the number of babies women are having—which plummeted in the 2007-09 recession—hasn’t picked up as much as demographers had expected during the recovery. The mortality rate for Americans is also creeping up, in part due to stalled progress in preventing people from dying of heart disease.

    The Census Bureau revised downward its estimates of immigration for each year since 2010 by an average of 10%. For this year, it estimated that 999,000 immigrants arrived, down 4% from the prior year.

  • Why Trump's "Border Tax Proposal" Is The "Most Important Thing Nobody Is Talking About"

    While the market, and various pundits and economists have been mostly focused on the still to be disclosed details of Trump’s infrastructure spending aspects of his fiscal plan, “one of the least talked about but possibly most important tax shifts in the history of the United States” is, according to DB, House Speaker Paul Ryan’s and President-elect Trump’s “border tax adjustment” proposal.

    This is part of the “Better Way” reform package and also figures prominently in the writings of senior Trump administration officials.

    What is it?

    Put simply, the proposal would tax US imports at the corporate income tax rate, while exempting income earned from exports from any taxation. The reform would closely mirror tax border adjustments in economies with consumption-based VAT tax systems. If enacted, the plan will likely be extremely bullish for the US dollar. What’s more, it would have a transformational impact on the US trade relationship with the rest of the world. Consider the below:

    • A “border tax adjustment” would, roughly speaking, be equivalent to a 15% one-off devaluation of the dollar. Imports would be 20% more expensive, because corporates would have to pay the new 20% corporate tax rate on their value. Exports would be roughly 12% “cheaper”, because for every $33 of earnings earned from $100 of exports (we use the 33% gross margin of the S&P), there would be a 12% tax cost ($33 earnings*35% current tax rate) that would no longer be imposed on corporates. Taking the average impact on the prices of exports and imports is equivalent to a 15% drop in the dollar.
    • A border tax adjustment would be very inflationary. The price of exports doesn’t affect the US consumption basket so would have no impact on CPI. However, the cost of imports would go up by 20%, which based on a simple relationship between import PPI and US inflation would be equivalent to a 5% rise in the CPI. Corporates may of course choose to absorb part of the rise in import costs in their profit margins. But either way, the order of magnitude is large.
    • A border tax adjustment would be very positive for the US trade balance. Similarly to the dollar calculations, a border tax adjustment would be equivalent to an across the board import tariff of 20% and an export subsidy of 12%. Keeping all else constant and applying standard trade elasticity impact parameters to an average of the two estimates results in a more than 2% drop in the trade deficit equivalent to more than 400bn USD, or equivalently, an almost complete closing of the US trade deficit.

    In other words, should the “border tax proposal” pass, it would not only send inflation soaring, while eliminating the US trade deficit – a long-time pet peeve of Trump  – it would also be the trade-equivalent of a 15% USD devaluation, even as it leads to an offsetting surge in the actual value of the dollar.

    To be sure, there are uncertainties related to all estimates above. First, there is a question mark on whether a border tax adjustment based on a territorial corporate tax system (as opposed to VAT) would be allowable under WTO rules. The question is highly complex, but senior Trump advisers have stated they would be willing to take the issue to the WTO.

    It is also not clear what types of goods the new tax would cover – the broader the coverage the bigger the impact and vice versa.

    Second, the impact on trade highlighted above should be considered an upper bound, as the post-crisis responsiveness of current account balances to relative price shifts has proven to be much lower.

    Still, it is hard to argue that such a fundamental shift in tax treatment of US exports and imports would not have a material impact on trade relations and flows with the rest of the world. More importantly, Saravelos argues, the second-order impact of “re-shoring” may be more material given that US corporate activity has been disadvantaged due to the current unfavorable tax treatment of offshore profits.

    * * *

    Taking all of the above into account, the academic literature is unambiguous in its conclusion that the dollar should rally strongly in the event a “border tax adjustment” is put in place. An appreciating dollar would be a natural response to an improving US trade balance and the competitiveness gains achieved by the shift in the relative prices of exports over imports. In extremis, the dollar would rally by 15% to fully offset the price changes caused by the tax. This analysis is partial however, with the knock-on consequences on the Fed, US corporate off-shoring and global trade relations likely making the impact even more material.

    Deutsche Bank concludes that combined with potential changes to the treatment of unrepatriated earnings, “the proposed changes to the US corporate tax code could be one of the most important shifts in US tax and international trade policy in a generation.”

    We wholeheartedly agree with DB’s assessment in this particular case.

  • Is India The Next Venezuela?

    Submitted by Jayant Bhandari via Acting-Man.com,

    India’s Currency Ban, Part VII

    This article continues right where Part VI left off (for earlier updates on the demonetization saga see Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, Part-IV, and Part-V).

    There is still huge support for Modi even among the poor.  A big carrot is dangled before them, which makes many stay numb to their current suffering.  During his election campaign in 2014, Modi promised to deposit more than Rs 1.5 million (~$22,000) in each poor person’s account once the government had seized all black money.

     

    Massive problems have been reported with the new bills. Some have been printed on defective paper and are simply falling apart. The inferior quality of the print job is generally often on the appalling side of deplorable. The new notes are counterfeited with great abandon, quite likely to a much greater extent than they ever were in the past. So much for Modi’s plan to stop counterfeiting.

    Photo credit: The Hindu

    How he arrived at this fantastic figure is anyone’s guess. But given India’s GDP of $1,718 per capita, Modi has promised to deposit 1,300% of annual GDP in individual bank accounts. The total amount would be larger than the entire GDP of the US. Evidently, this does not even remotely add up.

    So what is really motivating the anti-corruption feelings of so many Indians — including the salaried middle class —  simply seems to be a mixture of greed and envy. There have also been hints that India’s income tax might be repealed. This is very appealing to the salaried middle class.

    Banned bank notes must be deposited by 31st December 2016.  Modi supporters widely expect that the windfall he has promised them will be announced soon thereafter. Not only isn’t there going to be any  free stuff, but bank accounts are likely to stay frozen, because the Indian government is incapable of printing all the cash needed to re-liquefy the economy.

    On January 1st 2017,  when members of the salaried middle class start waking up to the reality that they have been scammed, Modi’s support should begin to crumble.  Anecdotal evidence indicates that not only the opposition, but even members of Modi’s own party are unhappy with the demonetization scheme. These politicians have been left holding bags of banned currency, on which they have had to take a cut of 20% to pay for the services of the mafia.

    They cannot oppose Modi openly, as that entails the risk that they might be seen as corrupt and unpatriotic. It seems likely that Modi will eventually lose his political support. But by then he may well have established himself independent of his party. He could easily be an autocrat in the making.

     

    Vegetable prices have declined by 25% to 50%. Electronic transactions fail even in big cities, as connections are often bad. How is this supposed to ever work in rural places, where electricity and internet connections might not even exist? One needs to be mindful of the fact that prices are not going down due to excess supply, but because poor people cannot buy anything. Are they going hungry?

    Photo via indianexpress.com

     

    Is India the Next Venezuela?

    India, the world’s largest democracy, is surrounded by banana republics as the accepted narrative has it: Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Thailand, and Afghanistan. The situation in the Middle East and in Africa is considered yet worse.

    There seems to be a lot to celebrate about India. Its democracy has been sustained over the 70 years following independence. The army has remained  fully under civilian control. Today India is also seen as an information technology juggernaut. It is claimed to be the fastest growing large economy. India is the next China, so the story goes.

    The reality is very different from the perception of those who only see India through the lens of the international media.  India has a population of 1.34 billion people with a GDP of $1,718 per capita. Almost 50% of India’s citizens have no access to toilets, electricity or running water.  48% of children under the age of five are stunted, a percentage greater than in any other major country in the world.

    Contrary to the perceptions created by the international media, if Africa were a country, it would actually look better than India with respect to these metrics. India has lower GDP per capita and a proportionately greater number of Indian children are exhibiting stunted growth.

    As a second step in trying to understand India, it makes sense to split the population in two parts: the 25% that have benefited — directly or indirectly — from the internet and cheap telephony over the past three decades, and the remaining 75%, whose lifestyle is comparable to a medieval existence, almost animal-like.

    For all intents and purposes, India is a banana republic, a wretched place of poverty and disease. The only difference between India and other well-recognized banana republics is that India has so far avoided overly negative headlines in the international media;  Indian lobbies in the US and the UK work very hard to make India look good. As noted above, this mainly serves to prop up the self-esteem of NRIs.

    It has become fashionable to compare India to China. This comparison seems extremely far-fetched. Chinese GDP per capita is more than five times higher, and is growing more than four-times faster than India’s in absolute terms. If India keeps growing at the recent high rate of 7.5% and China at a mere 6.3%,  it will take India more than 135 years to catch up with China’s economic output in absolute terms.

    People who have been concerned about the demonetization policy have repeatedly asked me if India is the next Venezuela. My response was “I wish it were.” On per capita basis, Venezuela’s GDP is more than seven times that of India. Venezuelans fight when they go hungry. Indians are too weak to even leave their homes. Indians should be fighting, particularly the poor, who have always got a very bad deal.

    When India becomes the next Venezuela, which hopefully won’t take longer than three decades, one would actually have cause to celebrate.

     

    Almost half of Indians have no choice but to defecate in the open. What looks like a simple problem has proved impossible for India’s government to solve. The government nevertheless wants to send probes to Mars and make India the first cashless economy. In due course, Modi will get swept away by India’s realities. The problem is that whoever succeeds him, will very likely be worse. A military general perhaps?

    Photo credit: Keystone / AP

     

    Millennia of human progress in terms of economic transactions have been wiped out  overnight. People have been forced to go back to barter.

     

    Demonetization Continues

    More than 90% of the banned banknotes have reportedly already been deposited in banks. This is widely hailed as a victory of the government. As Mumbai-based economist Mithun B. Dutta explained in a note, the reality is the exact opposite. He argues that demonetization would only have made sense if a large part of the banned currency had never made it into bank deposits.

    Up until recently,  the banned currency was selling for a 20% discount to its face value. Not only has this discount disappeared in recent days, but the remaining banned bills are now trading at premiums of up to 10%.

    The poorest people lack the connections to deposit their cash and get it back out. The queues outside bank branch offices have continued and the mood is increasingly desperate. Businesses are closing, with many too damaged financially to be able to ever restart again. Poor people are losing their jobs.

    Food prices are down by 25% to 50%, leaving farmers without the funds needed to support the next crop planting cycle. Shops remain empty, as discretionary spending is put on hold. Many businesses have suffered sharp declines in sales. Wheat sowing is said to be down sharply as well.

    Who cares when one has problems of one’s own? This half-dead old woman serves as an example for more than 75% of India’s population. She cannot even write her own name, but is expected to learn to use plastic cards. For Modi she does not count if she isn’t paying taxes and isn’t part of the formal economy; but it is Modi who will eventually be thrown out.

     

    Desperate poor people, whose pain is not reflected in any news or statistics.

    Photo credit: Praveen Kumar/HT

     

    Members of the salaried middle class, Modi’s biggest supporters, are slowly starting to face the pinch as well. When they went to their banks on  December 1, 2016 to collect part of their salaries, they had to rub shoulders with the poorest of the country, for whom they have deep-rooted disgust. And then they had to go back home empty-handed or with only part of the cash they had wanted to withdraw.

    They are still hoping that their bank accounts will be unfrozen after the demonetization deadline on December 31 passes. They will soon realize that  their accounts will stay frozen, as simple math shows there is no other possibility. Modi will have to make a new announcement on December 31 to keep his social engineering project on track with yet another patch-up job, and to keep people’s hopes up.

     

    There has been a significant surge in spontaneous outbreaks of violence across the country. Indian police are not sufficiently trained and lack the competence to keep a material increase in social unrest under control.

     

    Conclusion

    No one has explained yet how the currency demonetization policy will lead to less corruption. Most of the outstanding cash has already made it into bank accounts, but despite that, the queues at bank branch offices seem to be never-ending. It is the unbanked, the poorest people, who are most likely to have failed to deposit their currency and get their cash back out.

    The government clearly has the intention of keeping bank accounts frozen after the official deadline of 31st December 2016. The economy will remain stalled at an enormous human cost. Modi is losing his control over his own party. He has isolated himself in a cocoon, surrounded by yes-men; but the middle class, which has so far considered itself to occupy the moral high ground, is starting to experience cash-related problems as well now.

    At the same time, the political opposition is fragmented and weak. Modi probably cannot even imagine losing power, believing himself to be indispensable. If he sees his support dwindling, India could easily end up being pushed toward outright autocratic rule.

    To properly understand all the undercurrents, it is best to consider first principles. India is an extraordinarily irrational, tribal and superstitious place. Despite the country’s long association with Britain, which by now has lasted over 300 years, it has failed to adopt the concept of reason. India and its institutions as they exist today were constructed by the British. It was inevitable that they would crumble, as India lacks the will and human capabilities needed to maintain them.

    A society lacking in rationality cannot be expected to be able to differentiate between right and wrong. It cannot have respect for the individual, or develop moral instincts. Its people will be lacking in empathy and compassion, as demonstrated by the indifference of members of the middle class to the suffering of their desperately poor fellow citizens.

    When such people are given western education, it merely sits in their minds as yet another belief system. Evidently, they don’t even understand that an ethical society cannot possibly be compatible with a government reneging on the contract that is printed on its currency.

    Even poor people suffer in silence, or even worse, are fighting among themselves. They too lack the necessary understanding of moral principles to feel revulsion when they are mistreated. Instead of directing their anger at those responsible for their plight, they take out their frustrations on the nearest persons weaker than themselves.

    With the passage of time, Indian institutions are necessarily mutating to accommodate India’s irrational culture. Culture cannot be changed through education alone, and changing it takes a very long time. India is likely to disintegrate at some point, fragmenting into tribal units or several smaller countries. Institutional decay has been underway for the past 70 years, but with Modi as a catalyst, its pace is picking up. The story of many countries in South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and large parts of South America is quite similar.

    What should investors do? Ultimately India is likely to turn out to be a terrible investment destination. Indian savers should consider moving their wealth abroad. Indians are still permitted to transfer $250,000 per year, but eventually capital controls are bound to be instituted. Keeping in mind that Indian savers are already paying premiums of 30% or more to purchase US dollars or British pounds, there seems hardly a good reason for foreigners to send money to India.

     

  • Krugman: "To Join Trump Administration You Have To Be A White Nationalist, Conspiracy Theorist"

    Paul Krugman wants you to know that, in his view, the markets are misinterpreting "Trumponomics" and because he is far smarter than you, the markets, and pretty much anyone else, it's important to pay attention.

    Of course, this shouldn't be terribly surprising as Trump could literally announce that he found a cure for cancer and Krugman would immediately take to the New York Times to pen an op-ed defending malignancies, and how its eradication would mark the end of "hope" for mankind.

    In any event, Krugman posted a short article to his twitter account this afternoon warning that the markets' interpretation of "Trumponomics" is all wrong.  While the confused Keynsian would ordinarily praise aggressive infrastructure plans, like the one proposed by Trump, in this case he's willing to make an exception and notes that the plan looks more like a "privatization scheme" than an "actual plan to boost public investment."  And while Krugman has never before seen a budget deficit that he didn't criticize for being too small, Trump's "privatization scheme" combined with "tax cuts for the rich" suddenly has him extremely worried about federal debt balances. 

    Financial markets seem to have decided that the Siberian candidate will pursue strongly expansionary macroeconomic policy. Long-term interest rates have risen sharply; expected inflation is also up, although not as much.

     

    But are the markets getting this right? I suspect not: fiscal policy probably won’t be expansionary as expected (or maybe at all), and Trump’s economic team is looking like a gathering of goldbugs, who will if anything push for deflation.

     

    On the fiscal side, I’m still seeing people talking about a huge infrastructure push. But there’s no indication that Republicans in Congress are at all eager to get moving on this push; their priorities seem to be repealing Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich, perhaps especially the estate tax. And in any case what we know about that supposed infrastructure push is that it looks much more like a privatization scheme than an actual plan to boost public investment.

     

    So what we’re really looking at is a combination of tax cuts and spending cuts. Overall, this will surely increase budget deficits. But the tax cuts will go to the wealthy, who won’t spend much of their windfall, while the spending cuts will fall on the poor and struggling workers, who will be forced into sharp cutbacks in spending. The overall effect on demand is therefore likely to be negative, not positive.

    For proof of his view on "Trumponomics," Krugman provided the following tweet storm, for your reading pleasure, highlighting the "gathering of gold bugs" known as Trump's cabinet.  Apparently Mnuchin "hangs out" with John Paulson so he's guilty by association.  Meanwhile, Mulvaney had the audacity to imply that the Fed's 0% interest rate policy might result in a weak USD.  And Larry Kudlow, well everyone knows that he is under the perpetual illusion that we're still living in the 1970's.

     

    While Krugman blasts the Trump tax plan as a blatant gift to rich people he ignores that people of all tax brackets would get breaks under Trump's plan.  Trump Tax Plan:

    Trump Taxes

    Current 2016 Tax Brackets:

    2016 Taxes

    He also ignores the reduction in corporate taxes that will impact 1000's of small businesses around the country and the expectation that the new administration will slash regulations which is nothing more than a massive, conservative form of fiscal stimulus. But lets not allow facts to get in the way of a good narrative.

    Finally, Neeraj Agrawal wins the award for "most outstanding response" to Krugman's latest rant:

    And finally, not satisfied with his almost-insane allegations, Krugman played the race-card

  • Uber's Massive Cash Burn Problem: 2016 Loss Set To Hit A Record $3 Billion

    With a valuation of $68 billion as of December 2016 – more than GM and Twitter combined – Uber is, according to the WSJ’s Unicorn Database, the most valuable private company in the world.

    And yet, despite its eye-popping valuation courtesy of a growth curve which until recently was truly unprecedented (at least until the company’s sudden withdrawals from China), Uber has a big problem: an unprecedented cash burn, which if not getting worse with every passing quarter, is certainly not getting better.

    Back in August, Bloomberg reported that Uber’s first half loss was roughly $1.4 billion ($580MM in Q1 and well over $800MM in Q2) on just over $2 billion in revenue ($960MM in Q1 and $1.1BN in Q2): it was burning approximately $1.6 dollars in costs and overhead (mostly in the form of an ongoing attempt to price the competition out of business by subsidizing drivers using VC cash).

    This follows a loss of $2 billion in 2015, and had, as of Q2, lost at least $4 billion in the history of the company. Of this, however, Uber reportedly lost at least $2 billion in China as a result of a failed attempt to penetrate the local market which it abandoned later in the summer, which while sapping growth potential in China, also supposedly stem losses associated with the Chinese market.

    Furthermore, the H1 loss came at a time when its fortunes in the US were said to be changing, and the company vowed it was turning a profit in Q1, only to revert back to its money losing ways in Q2 and onward.

    As Bloomberg said at the time, “It’s hard to find much of a precedent for Uber’s losses. Webvan and Kozmo.com—two now-defunct phantoms of the original dot-com boom—lost just over $1 billion combined in their short lifetimes. Amazon.com Inc. is famous for losing money while increasing its market value, but its biggest loss ever totaled $1.4 billion in 2000. Uber exceeded that number in 2015 and is on pace to do it again this year.”

    Fast forward three months, when overnight Bloomberg reported that Uber’s cash burn problems continued, and in the third quarter, Uber lost another $800 million, bringing its total loss for the first nine months of the year to “significantly more” than $2.2 billion. The good (and bad) news is that even as its cash burn grew, so did Uber’s revenue which rose even leaving the world’s most populous country, and is said to have generated about $3.76 billion in net revenue in the first nine months of 2016, or about $1.7 billion in Q3 revenue and, according to Bloomberg, is on track to exceed $5.5 billion this year. The problem – if only from a cash burn basis – is that when 2016 closes in ten days, Uber is also expected to have burned a record $3 billion.

    Another problem, one which comes as less of a surprise, is that growth in Uber’s bookings – the total combined value of the fares that riders pay – is slowing down: these came in at $5.4 billion in the third quarter, an increase from $5 billion in the second quarter and $3.8 billion in the first. The slowdown in Uber’s bookings growth can at least partially be explained by the company’s decision to leave China. Uber said on Aug. 1 that it came to an agreement with Didi Chuxing to exit China in exchange for 17.5 percent of the Chinese company. As part of the deal, Didi invested $1 billion in Uber. Uber’s third-quarter financials don’t include the business in China, which were part of the previous quarterly results.

    But the biggest problem is that despite the growth in revenues, Uber’s losses continue to gross in a proportional manner, suggesting that the company has little if any control over its bottom line: as noted above, in Q1 the loss was about $580 million and by Q2 it significantly exceeded $800 million, including China. That number is likely far higher.

    Even in the U.S., Uber’s home market, the company continues to lose money. After turning a slight profit in the in the first quarter of this year, Uber lost $100 million in the U.S. in the second quarter. The loss increased in the third quarter, the person said. Lyft, Uber’s largest U.S. competitor, has promised investors that it will keep its losses below $150 million a quarter.

    What does all of the above mean? During Uber’s Q2 presentation with investors, the company’s head of finance, Gautam Gupta said that subsidies for Uber’s drivers are responsible for the majority of the company’s losses globally. Which means that Uber continues to cut prices in an aggressive attempt to gain market share. While for now this plan has worked, and Uber has become a dominant player in most venues in which it operates (except, perhaps, the most important one of all China), this strategy only works as long as Uber has has to, literally, burn to capture market share (something which in the end backfired dramatically on Saudi Arabia in a similar experiment over the past two years), and as long as its investors are willing to keep writing equity checks to the company at ever higher valuations – a down round for Uber would be the beginning of the end.

    For now, however, the company’s main competition – established taxi and transportation companies – are proving resilient, and despite the aggressive cost pressures from Uber, few have been bankrupted, and while the price of a Yellow Cab medallion has plunged from $1.3 million in 2014 to just $250,000 recently, New York City is still not only dominated by taxis, Uber still has a long way to go before it can get even close to catching up to its competition in terms of volume.

    Meanwhile, Uber’s success will go on only as long as the company has blow billions in hopes it puts its competitors in bankruptcy before its cash runs out. Alas, a few more years like 2015, in which the company burned a whopping $3 billion despite a rising top-line, and Uber’s prospects are suddenly starting to look rather shaky. Meanwhile, the winner in this massive “deflationary” battle to the bottom is the consumer, for whom transportation prices have rarely been lower. So dear Venture Capitalists, please continue to fund Uber and subsidize deflation for consumers in at least this part of the economy: it’s clear that between the Fed and Trumpflation, there aren’t many such deflationary hiding spots left.

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Today’s News 20th December 2016

  • Paul Craig Roberts Warns "Only A Counter-Coup Can Save American Democracy"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The CIA has long engineered coups in other countries. Now we are approaching at breakneck speed a CIA coup in the USA.

    When the presstitute media first published unverifired, unsourced leaks attributed to unnamed CIA officials, both the FBI and the Director of Homeland Security said that they did not embrace the accusation that Trump’s election was a result of Russian interference in the US presidential election.

    Now suddenly we have a report from the Washington Post, a rag whose integrity is in doubt and a mainstay of anti-Trump propaganda suspected of being a CIA asset, that the FBI and Homeland Security are in agreement with the anonymous leaks to the presstitutes:

    “FBI Director James B. Comey and Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. are in agreement with a CIA assessment that Russia intervened in the 2016 election in part to help Donald Trump win the White House, officials disclosed Friday, as President Obama issued a public warning to Moscow that it could face retaliation.
    New revelations about Comey’s position could put to rest suggestions by some lawmakers that the CIA and the FBI weren’t on the same page on Russian President Vladi­mir Putin’s intentions.”

     

    “The positions of Comey and Clapper were revealed in a message that CIA Director John Brennan sent to the agency’s workforce Friday. ‘Earlier this week, I met separately with FBI [Director] James Comey and DNI Jim Clapper, and there is strong consensus among us on the scope, nature, and intent of Russian interference in our presidential election,’ Brennan said, according to U.S. officials who have seen the message.”

    Note, that this claim comes from the CIA. It has not been verified at this time of writing by the FBI and Homeland Security. Indeed, please note that the Washington Post, which is hyping this story of intelligence agency consensus, reports:

    “The CIA and the FBI declined to comment on Brennan’s message or on the classified intelligence assessment that CIA officials shared with members of the Senate Intelligence Committee earlier this month, setting off a political firestorm.” In other words, the CIA might be putting words in the mouths of the other intelligence officials.

    Note also that Hillary says that Putin interfered against her because he has a grudge against her for her interference in his reelection by fomenting protests against him with the Western-financed Russian NGOs. If what Hillary claims is correct, then any Russian interference, for which proof remains absent, was directed against Hillary in order to settle a score and has nothing to do with any Russian influence over Trump or 200 Internet sites as falsely and maliciously reported by the Washington Post.

    All the CIA officials making claims of Russian interference, according to the Washington Post, continue to speak “on the condition of anonymity.”

    So we have a coup against the president-elect based solely on unverified, unsourced, anonymous assertions made by the public knows not who.

    Rep. Davin Nunes, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, which has oversight over the CIA, has said that neither he nor the committee have seen any evidence from the CIA in support of the claims he reads in the media. He has asked the agency to brief the Intelligence Committee on the alleged evidence but has had no response.

    According to the Washington Post, “Nunes said: ‘We have not received any information from Intelligence Community (IC) agencies indicating that they have developed new assessments on this issue. I am alarmed that supposedly new information continues to leak to the media but has not been provided to Congress.’”

    Rep. Nunes statement makes it completely clear that the CIA is using the presstitute media to launch a coup against president-elect Trump.

    CIA director John Brennan’s audacity suggests that he expects the coup to succeed. Otherwise, he is dead meat along with Bezos, The Washington Post and the rest of the presstitute media.

    Trump’s critics on the left and right and among the liberals and progressives have stupidly played into the CIA’s hands. I tried to warn them not to judge Trump by the past associations of his appointees as no change was possible without strong knowledgeable appointees. Those who romanticize Bernie Sanders are out to lunch. A person as weak as Sanders proved to be, completely collapsing in the face of his stolen presidential nomination by Hillary, could not possibly have prevailed over the powerful oligarchic groups that rule America. When we finally get a president-elect strong enough to bring change from the top down, the leftwing-liberal-progressive elements join the CIA in denouncing him!

    If the generals Trump has announced as his appointees have been too marginalized within the military by the neoconservatives to be able to provide US military protection against the CIA’s coup against the president-elect, do not expect Donald Trump to be inaugurated as President of the United States on January 20.

    We are at the point that only a countercoup against the CIA and the Hillary forces can save American democracy.

    High treason is alive and well in the United States, and it is operating against American democracy and president-elect Trump.

  • Where People Trust The News Most (And Least)

    With Facebook rolling out new Soros-sponsored features designed to tackle the spread of ‘fake news’ across America, we thought it worth looking at just how trusted (or not) the media are around the rest of the world

    Infographic: Where People Trust The News Most And Least | Statista
    You will find more statistics at Statista

    The Reuters Institute For The Study Of Journalism recently released a report showing that trust levels in news vary hugely by country. As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, trust is highest in affluent Western European nations, primarily due to the presence of well-funded public service broadcasters.

    65 percent of people in Finland agreed that “you can trust most news most of the time”.

    In the United States, the epicenter of the fake news storm, trust was far lower at just 33 percent.

  • The Most Hated Asset On The Planet

    Submitted by Kevin Muir via TheMacroTourist.com,

    http://themacrotourist.com/images/RollDec1916.png

    Last year at this time markets were grappling with the Fed’s first rate hike in almost a decade. Although many optimists were confident the economy was plenty strong enough to handle the increase in rates, within days it was obvious they were sorely mistaken.

    Fast forward to today. With the election of Trump, there is even more optimism filling the air.

    Don’t get me wrong, I understand all the reasons to be bullish.

    But doesn’t the fact that everyone else understand all those reasons too not worry you just a little bit?

    There is no wall of worry to climb. Instead we are faced with complete and overwhelming confidence the Fed hike will not derail the good times.

    Now maybe I worry too much. Maybe the Fed hike will not slow down the markets even in the slightest.

    Yet a little part of me wonders if the problems with the shortage of US liquidity will come rushing back to the forefront with the Fed hike.

    And just in case it does, I think it is instructive to review what happened last year when the Fed hiked.

    Let’s start with the S&P 500:

    http://themacrotourist.com/images/SPXDec1916.png

    After last year’s Fed hike the S&P 500 managed to stay bid for a week before collapsing in the worst start to a new year in the history of finance.

    How about the US dollar?

    http://themacrotourist.com/images/DXYDec1916.png

    Although the US dollar went up for a few weeks after, it eventually rolled over and had a terrible first quarter of 2016.

    So far all the reactions to the Fed hike seem to have some delay. Yet have a look at gold. The “pet rock” bottomed on the day after last year’s Fed hike and never looked back.

    I don’t want to goocher it, but so far, the pattern is playing out exactly the same. Gold has once again bottomed on the day following this year’s Fed hike, and knock on wood, has not yet violated that low.

    http://themacrotourist.com/images/GoldDec1916.png

     

    This all coincides with the gold/S&P 500 ratio once again bumping along the support at the previous low.

    http://themacrotourist.com/images/GLDSPXDec1916.png

     

    Putting it all together, will the gold/S&P 500 ratio repeat last year’s performance?

    http://themacrotourist.com/images/RepeatDec1916.png

    I know any suggestion of gold rising and stocks declining seems absurd. After all, gold is probably the most hated asset class on the planet with stocks being the most loved.

    Yet somehow that doesn’t bring me much comfort as I am pretty sure last year the bulls were extremely confident the Fed hike wouldn’t derail the budding recovery. The fact they are even more confident today doesn’t bring me any solace…

  • Turkish Gunman Arrested After Firing Shots, Trying To Enter US Embassy In Ankara

    Hours after the Russian ambassador was shot dead in Ankara, a man was arrested early on Tuesday morning after firing a gun and trying trying to enter the US Embassy in Ankara. According to the Daily Sabah newspaper, the Embassy was placed on lockdown after the man, who has not yet been named, approached the embassy with a gun.  He also fired at least one shot in the air, newspaper to the Turkish media.

    The attack came hours after the US state department issued a security message warning all US citizens to avoid the area near Embassy compound until further notice.

    It was not immediately clear if anyone was hurt by the suspect.

    A video, and photographs, show him being led away, apparently uninjured. He appears to be in his 40s or 50s. In the video footage of his arrest, he can be heard shouting ‘Don’t play with us’ as he pushes against the group of police officers guiding him to a van.

    The US Embassy was also placed on lockdown after that shooting.

    The event followed the shocking murder earlier today of Russian ambassador Andrei Karlov, 62, who was shot dead in an Ankara art gallery. Karlov was killed by Melvut Mert Altintas, 22, an off-duty member of the Ankara special forces police department. Footage of the scene shows the man saying in Arabic: ‘We are the descendants of those who supported the Prophet Muhammad for jihad.’ According to local media, his words are similar to the unofficial anthem of Al Nusra, the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda.

    In Turkish, Altintas adds: ‘Don’t forget about Aleppo. Don’t forget about Syria. As long as our lands are not safe, you will not taste safety … Only death will take me out of here. Anyone who has a role in this oppression, they will all die one by one.’ Altintas was shot dead after a standoff with police.

    It is unclear if there is any link between the two men.

  • Commuter-In-Chief: Obama Sets New Single-Day Clemency Record; More Than Previous 11 Presidents Combined

    Earlier today President Obama commuted the sentences of another 153 federal prisoners bringing his total to 1,176, more than the previous 11 presidents combined.  The president also pardoned another 78 individuals, bringing his total pardons over the course of his eight years in office to 148.  Combined, these 231 acts of clemency sets a record for the most ever granted by a president in a single day in history. 

    This latest move is just further evidence of his stated intention to ramp up commutations throughout the remainder of his presidency.  And, while the President often claims publicly that his commutations are only for “low-level” and “non-violent” criminals, 395 of the 1,176 commutations were offered to people serving life sentences…which typically aren’t given to “low-level” criminals caught with a couple ounces of drugs on them.

    Of course, in typical fashion, the President took to Twitter to brag about his latest “accomplishment.”

     

    And here is the full statement from the President’s White House blog released earlier today.  As usual, the post ends with a vow to grant even more pardons over the coming weeks as Obama approaches the end of his time in the White House.

    Today, President Obama granted clemency to 231 deserving individuals — the most individual acts of clemency granted in a single day by any president in this nation’s history. With today’s 153 commutations, the President has now commuted the sentences of 1,176 individuals, including 395 life sentences. The President also granted pardons to 78 individuals, bringing his total number of pardons to 148. Today’s acts of clemency — and the mercy the President has shown his 1,324 clemency recipients — exemplify his belief that America is a nation of second chances.

     

    The 231 individuals granted clemency today have all demonstrated that they are ready to make use — or have already made use — of a second chance. While each clemency recipient’s story is unique, the common thread of rehabilitation underlies all of them. For the pardon recipient, it is the story of an individual who has led a productive and law-abiding post-conviction life, including by contributing to the community in a meaningful way. For the commutation recipient, it is the story of an individual who has made the most of his or her time in prison, by participating in educational courses, vocational training, and drug treatment. These are the stories that demonstrate the successes that can be achieved — by both individuals and society — in a nation of second chances.

     

    Today’s grants signify the President’s continued commitment to exercising his clemency authority through the remainder of his time in office. In 2016 alone, the President has granted clemency to more than 1,000 deserving individuals. The President continues to review clemency applications on an individualized basis to determine whether a particular applicant has demonstrated a readiness to make use of his or her second chance, and I expect that the President will issue more grants of both commutations and pardons before he leaves office. The mercy that the President has shown his 1,324 clemency recipients is remarkable, but we must remember that clemency is a tool of last resort and that only Congress can achieve the broader reforms needed to ensure over the long run that our criminal justice system operates more fairly and effectively in the service of public safety.

    Generally a full list of the drug dealers that will be released back on to the streets in the near future can be viewed on the Department of Justice website.  That said, Obama seems to be  releasing criminals faster than the DOJ can update their site, so you’ll have to check back later for the official list. 

    1,324 extra democrat voters and counting…

  • Bank Of Japan Leaves Policy Unchanged, Upgrades Economic Outlook

    With a vote of 7 to 2, The Bank of Japan decide to change nothing about its monetary policy. While expected, some had suggested Kuroda might shift the 10Y target away from 0bps, but no – no change to asset purchases, no change to 10Y target level, and no change to policy rate. However, in what some say is a tilt towards future tightening, The BoJ upgraded its view of the Japanese economy.

    • BOJ keeps monetary policy unchanged, as predicted by all 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
    • BOJ: Japan’s Economy Has Continued Moderate Recovery Trend
    • Bank of Japan Keeps 10-Year JGB Yield Target at About 0%
    • BOJ Maintains Policy Balance Rate at -0.100%
    • BOJ statement lists all the usual risks – China, Brexit, uncertainty in the U.S. And, interestingly, it flags worries about euro zone debt and European banks, the crisis that everyone seems to have forgotten (except the BOJ it seems).

    There is a small (negative) reaction in yen…

    Unusuallym there are no wild-cards in this statement, but as Bloomberg’s Brian Fowler notes, the one key takeaway is that BOJ upgrades view of Economy. One more piece of evidence suggesting next move will be toward tightening rather than loosening.

  • Make America "Greater Fools" Again?

    Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    The post-election euphoria has been quite amazing as the markets have surged more than 8% since then. Of course, the election of Donald Trump was supposed to be a disaster, but that rhetoric quickly changed, at least for now.

    Not surprisingly, the media has reported each notch of “new highs” with joyful glee culminating with last week’s Barron’s cover “Get Ready For Dow 20,000”.  It was not just Barron’s getting “giddy” over the millennial milestone, but the majority of the financial media and press has been salivating with anticipation of being able to don ball caps commemorating the occasion.

    Unfortunately, for most investors, the headline is probably right. As I stated in the most recent newsletter:

    “I still suspect there is enough bullish exuberance currently to push the Dow to 20,000 and the S&P to 2,300 by the end of the year. However, I am more concerned about what happens next.”

    The reason I say it is “unfortunate” for most investors, is because investors have a tendency to do exactly the opposite of what they should do when it comes to investing – “Buy High and Sell Low.”  The reality is that the emotions of greed and fear do more to cause investors to lose money in the market than being robbed at the point of a gun.

    Take a look at the composite bullish sentiment chart below which is a compilation of individual and professional investors. (AAII, INVI, MarketVane, and NAAIM)

    Typically, when sentiment has been this “bullish” markets have been near short to intermediate-term peaks, or worse. We can also examine investor behavior by looking at fund flows of individuals over time. Not surprisingly, investors tend to buy the most near market peaks and sell the most near market bottoms.

    Since investors are mostly individuals that have a “day job,” the majority of their “research” comes from a daily dose of media headlines. Therefore, since the media tends to “focus” their attention on “market moving headlines,” either bullish or bearish, investors tend to “react” accordingly.

    During market declines, investors tend to panic and sell out of stocks with the majority of the selling occurring near the lows. Conversely, as the markets begin to rally from deeply oversold conditions, investors continue to sell as they disbelieve the rally and are just happy to be getting some of their money back. However, as the rally continues to advance, investors are “lured” back in as the “greed factor” overtakes their logic. Unfortunately, this buying always tends to occur at, or near, market peaks.

    I have used the analogy many times in the past the market is like a rubber band. During bullish trends, the market can get stretched to extremes from the moving average for a short period of time before it snaps back.

    The “Greater Fool” Theory.

    As investors, our job now is to be selling off our investments to those “greater fools” that are willing to overpay for an asset. Heading into the election, it was believed that if Donald Trump was elected it would be “a crisis” for the markets. Heading into election night, the market sold-off and was trading at 3-standard deviations below the moving average. Regardless of who won, the negativity of the market had set it up for a rally. Currently, at 3 standard deviations above the 60-day moving average, the “Donald Trump Is Great” rally is likely complete as opposite extremes have now been reached. 

    This is not something seen just recently, but at the peak and trough of every correction over time. The market is pushing extremes rarely seen at the beginning of a next “leg higher” in the markets.

    So, while the media is busy putting on party hats and penning articles that the “Market Is Back”just remember that we have been here before – both on the way up and the way down. More importantly, as I stated this past weekend:

    “First, “record levels” of anything are records for a reason. It is where the point where previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a “record level” is reached it is NOT THE BEGINNING, but rather an indication of the MATURITY of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution.  The 4-panel chart below suggests that current levels should be a sign of caution rather than exuberance.”

    4-panel-recession-watch

    The point here for individuals trying to save for their retirement is that “getting back to even is not an investment strategy.”  While the media continues to tout every advance to a previous level as the coming of the next great bull market – keep in mind that this has nothing to do with your money or investing. Bonds and cash have outperformed the stock market over the last two decades – yet individuals, chided along by the media and Wall Street, still chase the worst performing asset class over that time frame.

    Let me turn this around.

    As markets advance in price, the risk of investing money, or rather the potential for loss, grows. It is when markets decline that we should be getting excited about investing. Yet, it is exactly the opposite of how individuals react. The media should be hitting the airwaves on down market days with “The market got CHEAPER today as the S&P 500 declined…”  

    The reality is, however, that declining markets don’t sell products of mutual funds companies or Wall Street brokerage firms. Declining markets are not as fun as advancing markets, and investors just want to make money.

    Unfortunately, it just isn’t that easy.

    It is interesting that people spend years in school to become Doctors, Lawyers and Engineers but spend virtually no time studying and learning the most complicated game in the world – investing.  Yet this is the game that they commit their hard-earned dollars to playing every day.

    If you ask an individual if they would take their entire 401k plan and go to Vegas to gamble with it – they will look at you as if your crazy. That same individual, however, speculates with their retirement funds in a “virtual casino” every day with the hopes that somehow it will turn out to be a greater sum down the road. 

    Why? Because the media tells them that is what they must do.

    However, there is ample evidence they absolutely “suck” at doing so, which is also confirmed by the average retirement plan savings balance.

    Since most investors lose money in the markets over time due to fees, emotional biases, trading mistakes, etc. – the odds in Vegas might just be better.

    To be a successful investor you have to be part historian, statistician, economist, financial analyst, and a fortune teller all rolled into one. Even with the requisite skills, education, and experience, investing for the long-term successfully is still a challenge in an environment where markets are inefficient, and to many degrees, affected by Central Bank influences.

    Here is my point. With markets trading at extremes, bullish exuberance at peaks and monetary policy tightening – this might be a good time to locate one of those “greater fools” to sell to. 

    Of course, this is just the opposite of what the media is telling you to do currently.

     

  • The Best Election Map Yet

    Behold, the Clinton archipelago…

     

    h/t @JohnCardillo

  • Wall Street’s Shills Are Starting to Feel Trump’s Chinese Cold War Chills

    Jim Cramer looked a little worried this evening, during his Maddening Money programme. All throughout the elections, the establishment elite, globalist shills, underestimated Trump’s desires to make America great again. With today’s electoral college win and Trump’s persistent lack of subservience to China, the shills on Wall Street are starting to wonder if it’s really happening.

    It really is this time, happening that is.

    In the brief clip below, Cramer summarizes what he believes to be Trump’s position on China, which plainly states we’re already in a trade war with China and Trump isn’t gonna take it anymore, God damn it. According to Goldman Sachs, these companies have the most exposure to China. china

     

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

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Today’s News 19th December 2016

  • Trump Can't Stop It: "The People Who Have Been Orchestrating The Collapse Have Not Halted Their Agendas"

    Submitted by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces (Airborne)) via SHTFPlan.com,

    There are some very somber, pragmatic articles circulating as of late that present a true snapshot of the difficulties the U.S. faces after eight years of Obama.  One of these articles is a well-written, thought-provoking piece by Susan Duclos of All News Pipeline, entitled We are Facing the Most Important Battle of All at the Most Dangerous Moment in History The piece shows what we’re up against and cautions all of us not to rely on the “magic fix” of Trump’s victory to side rail our preparations and vigilance.  Here is an excerpt from that excellent article:

    We at ANP are noting a lot of optimism from investors with stocks soaring,  to economic confidence reaching new highs, to small business owners, to household spending and even prepping has hit a “multi-year low,” all the articles I am reading are crediting the election of Donald Trump as reason for all this optimism, but as much as I hate to rain on everyone’s parade… now is the most dangerous time in history, not a time to assume just because one man was elected, all the wrongs will be made right, the failing economy will automatically just magically fix itself.”

    Susan deserves special thanks, as well as Stefan Stanford; their coverage of developments has been spot-on and unwavering in their attempts to present objective and factual reporting, while warning readers akin to modern Paul Reveres that the battle is not over by any means.  In reality, it is not even close to being over.  I recommend reading the article’s section toward the beginning under “THE ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING” paragraph introduction for statistics on where we stand economically at this moment in time.

    There was a piece released by Michael Snyder of the Economic Collapse Blog on December 8th entitled It is Like a Nuclear Bomb Went Off in the Prepping Community, another timely piece that warns of the complacency settling in now that most conservatives believe that Trump will be the vaccine for the country’s illnesses.  Here is an excerpt from that article:

    Not since the election of Ronald Reagan has the mood on the right shifted in such a positive direction so suddenly.  But now that everyone is feeling so good about things, very few people still seem interested in prepping for hard times ahead.  In fact, it is like a nuclear bomb went off in the prepping community.

     

    As the publisher of The Economic Collapse Blog, I am in contact with a lot of people that serve the prepping community.  And I can tell you that sales of emergency food and supplies have been crashing since Donald Trump’s surprise election victory.  Firms that help people relocate outside of the United States have seen business really dry up, and I know of one high profile individual that has actually decided to move back to the country after Trump’s victory. 

     

    It is almost as if the apocalypse has been canceled and the future history of the U.S. has been rewritten with a much happier ending.  Personally, I am quite alarmed that so many people are suddenly letting their guard down, but it is difficult to convince people to be vigilant when things seem to be going so well. 

    Mike’s sentiments are completely accurate and I agree with them wholeheartedly.  The people who have been orchestrating the collapses of national governments (Ukraine, Libya, and Egypt, for example) and have been funding the “fundamental transformations” of other areas, (such as Syria and Yemen) have not halted their agendas.  And, why would they?  There are hundreds of billions of dollars at stake that have already been invested in the planned collapse of all the nations of the world and the absorption into one global governance split (as written in earlier articles) into three areas to promote “homogeneity” and management along lines of ethnic, cultural, and genotypical similarities.

    It appears as if the U.S. may take a little bit longer than expected, now.  “May” is still the deciding word.  Remember: the 9-11 attack was what enabled Bush Jr. to propel the U.S. toward a police state.  The John Warner Defense Act was signed in 2006, and the Patriot Act did not originate under Obama, but under Bush.  You can see the “Overton Window” principle and the resultant paradigm shifts as you observe each successive election and term of office…the “back and forth” from (supposedly) Conservative to Liberal administrations.  Reagan (8 years) and Bush Sr. (4 years, when the decline began), followed by Clinton (8 years) and then Bush Jr. (8 years) and then Obama (8 years) …and here’s Trump for at least 4 years.

    The Republican administrations gave a few “small pushes” toward globalism, while the Democrats gave “huge pushes” that moved the line of what the public could tolerate further along the path… alternatingly scaling back with the Republican administration that followed.

    The globalists need the illusion of the two-party system to enable a “reprieve” in the minds of the people with the rise of a Bush or a Trump…but the reprieve is merely an illusion.

    If these Marxist traitors forced their agenda on the people all at once, there would have been a revolution in its inception.  They alternate: destroy the society and the culture to the max under a Democrat administration, and then “scale back” a bit under a Republican administration while still nipping away at the edges with an “Act” here, or a “piece of legislation” there.

    The proof to this pudding is that Trump will not completely clean house and redo the existing political, economic, and social order when he takes office.  Already he has reneged on campaign pledges to repeal Obamacare and build a complete physical barrier between Mexico and the U.S.  He is not going to deport the illegal aliens.  He is going to emplace several people in his cabinet who are known to be either in the pockets of the corporations (such as Mnuchin), or have stances that diametrically oppose his own campaign pledges (such as his selection for White House Chief of Staff who supports amnesty for illegal aliens).

    It may take them a little longer, but Trump will not be able to undo the current course toward the collapse of the United States and the relinquishing of national sovereignty in favor of global governance.  He may be (wittingly or unwittingly) helping it along.  I believe the former will be the case.  Remember Bush Jr.’s departure from the White House?  He gave Obama a manila file folder, marked “From 43 to 44,” in reference to their sequential order as presidents.  Wonder what was in it, don’t you?

    Wonder what Obama will be handing “Number 45” before (and if) he departs?  There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that there is an agenda that Trump will follow that is larger than his own.  The global manipulators behind the scenes have handed the American people their “champion” and a slight reprieve to avoid a revolution that would have been far from bloodless.  We’re still in a mess overall, and Trump will either knuckle under to their demands in the manner of the aforementioned pattern of their choosing, or they’ll remove him from office.  Meanwhile it is important not to lose focus, to stay aware, and continue to prepare for the eventual collapse, regardless of what the majority does or doesn’t do in denial of the true situation.

  • AG Lynch Admits She "Regrets" Tarmac Meeting With Bill Clinton

    As yet another member of President Obama's administration desperately attempts to define their own legacy (with words other than "failed", "rigged", or "favoritism"), Attorney General Loretta Lynch put on her gentlest, quietest voice for an 'exit' interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, admitting she "regretted sitting down" with Bill Clinton because "it gave people concern" and wants to be remembered for ensuring justice to "all Americans."

    As The Hill reports, Lynch said Sunday that the fallout from her tarmac meeting with former President Bill Clinton was "painful" for her.

     

    "I do regret sitting down and having a conversation with him, because it did give people concern. And as I said, my greatest concern has always been making sure that people understand that the Department of Justice works in a way that is independent and looks at everybody equally," Lynch said on CNN's "State of the Union."

     

    "And when you do something that gives people a reason to think differently, that's a problem. It was a problem for me. It was painful for me, and so I felt it was important to clarify it as quickly and as clearly and as cleanly as possible."

    The Clinton campaign has cited Comey's decision to send a letter to Congress just days before the election about newly discovered emails as one of the reasons she lost.

    "But certainly if Bill Clinton hadn't gotten on the tarmac that time and gone to you, things might have been different," said host Jake Tapper. "You would have had more say. You would have been able to control Comey more … It might have changed the letter that he gave at the end there."

     

    Lynch replied: "I don't think it would have changed his view of what he had to say or not say to Congress."

    So to be clear, Lynch regrets the meeting only because she was caught and it caused controversy… not because it was clearly a bad judgment call!

    But, as Lynch went on to explains, she wants her legacy at DOJ to be one of inclusion

    Once again, defining the narrative is key – "inclusion" – which appears to defined by her and the DoJ as easing and deciminalizing any law-breaking activity that appears to bias against poor or minorities (whether or not they actually broke the law or not). As a reminder, The New York Post noted earlier this year that even a senior Justice Department official predicts the decriminalization-cum-deincarceration movement will backfire in higher crime nationwide. “In five years the crime rate is going to be crazy again,” he said.

    The official, who oversees probation of felons paroled from federal prisons and who requested anonymity, worries the new department policy will be abused.

     

    “I don’t see liberal judges even attempting to make people pay or spending the time making an accurate determination of a person being ‘indigent,’ ” he said. “It’s another way of not holding people accountable for their actions.”

     

    The Justice guidance defines “indigent” as anybody who might be “eligible for public benefits,” but not actually receiving them. “Jurisdictions may benefit from creating statutory presumptions of indigency for certain classes of defendants,” the source said.

     

    The administration claims cops and courts conspire to exploit poor blacks to generate city revenue in some kind of shakedown. But data show blacks fail to pay their fines at far greater rates than whites, so why not target whites if cash extortion is the objective?

     

    Many of the cities with the highest fines, such as Philadelphia, are run by Democrats; and the Justice Department is no piker when it comes to levying fines.

     

    “US attorneys always want fines and restitution amounts in the millions from people who have little chance of ever paying it back,” the department official said.

     

    Liberals are actually to blame for the trend they’re trying to reform. Court fines and fees help pay for all the new costs liberals have added to the system, such as drug counseling and home electronic monitoring. They’ve also pushed judges to assess more fines in lieu of incarceration, especially for drug offenders.

     

    Yet now they claim the whole court fine and bail system is racist.

     

    Former federal civil rights attorney Hans Bader, now with the Competitive Enterprise Institute, describes the latest reforms as a “massive assault on the criminal justice system.”

    It’s a slippery slope to clemency for criminals, large and small.

  • Damaging The Deep State: Trump, Russia, And China

    Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    Even before he takes office, President-elect Trump is turning the world upside down.

    It has become clear his attitude towards Russia and China is very different from that of his predecessors. Amazingly, he is already wresting power from the deep state, causing it great resentment, which under Obama, Clinton and the Bushes, ran geopolitical policy. From January, barring accidents the world will not be the same, the establishment up-ended.

    This short article builds on information available to date and speculates how America’s relations with Russia and China are likely to evolve, and the implications for NATO and Europe. It attempts to cut through the disinformation and noise (from all sides) to assess how Trump will change super-power relations.

    Russia

    President-elect Trump has signalled his respect for President Putin as a leader, and Putin, who has been careful to not comment on the US presidential election, has indicated his respect for Trump. Furthermore, Trump, who admittedly said lots of contradictory statements to get elected, clearly wishes to reduce America’s funding commitment to NATO and to reduce American involvement in the Middle East. These objectives will obviously find favour with Putin, and could form the basis of a relationship reset between Russia and the West.

    The American deep state was responsible for moving missiles within range of Moscow, under cover of targeting Tehran, in this year’s escalation of a new cold war. It follows the covert destabilisation by the US of Ukraine over the last decade and American backing for various terrorist groups in Syria, following Syria’s refusal to permit pipelines from the Gulf to cross her territory five years ago. Since the fall of the USSR, NATO has moved its eastern border to within 300 miles of Moscow. Elements in the CIA, working to their own agenda, are still trying to demonise Russia without any evidence, as the Washington Post story about Russian intervention in the election demonstrates.

    The Trump team dismissed this attempt to blacken the Russians as disinformation, from the same sources that came up with the fiction of Saddam Hussain’s weapons of mass destruction. The timing of accusations over Russian involvement probably has much to do with influencing the electoral college’s votes, a last stand against Trump’s election, in which case the intervention is politically outrageous. But this is a side-show, and doubtless Trump will deal appropriately with those involved when he is in office.

    Rather like super-tankers that need seven miles to stop, regional powers are also finding it hard to adjust to these new realities, but adjust they surely will. European governments and NATO members will have had background briefings, but the normal channels for this, the CIA, the US Military advisers and American diplomats are not on Trump’s page, so confusion still reigns. But one thing is becoming clear: Trump will not be diverted from a general policy of détente and de-escalation of military presence in both Europe and the Middle East.

    The process of détente is reasonably predictable. A summit with Russia to agree strategic arms limitations (called SALT3 perhaps?) is a proven path to follow. It should be a step-by-step process scheduled over five or ten years, with pre-agreed conditions designed to satisfy concerns in the Baltic States and Poland that Russia might attempt border-creep. For their part the Russians must agree Ukraine’s independence (excepting the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, which should be formally ceded to Russia). Ukraine and Belorussia will be independent buffer states between Russia and the European Union. Under a SALT3 both NATO and Russia will agree to a phased withdraw of all military hardware other than limited ground troops and their associated equipment.

    In the Middle East, America will concede that Syria remains in the Russian sphere of influence, and will withdraw all support for rebel organisations. This is no more than reality. China, doubtless, will help in the physical reconstruction of Syria in due course. Agreement will be sought as to the means of destroying Daesh. Beyond that, a reduced American presence in the region will continue to ensure security for Israel and the Gulf states. Already, the British have announced they will step up their presence in the region, which should also contribute to regional stability.

    Iran should be persuaded by Russia to take a more constructive approach to peace with Sunni states, such as Saudi Arabia, and towards Israel. This could be difficult, but should be possible, given Iran has become considerably more moderate since the days of Ahmadinejad, particularly if the right tone from America is forthcoming. Iran’s days of hiding from western sanctions behind Russia will be over, and should be replaced with an emphasis on trade. And Saudi Arabia can no longer afford to wage wars, such as that in the Yemen, contributing to a less belligerent outcome.

    All this is practical, possible and predictable. Behind the change in geopolitical reality for the Middle East is the fact that Peak Oil is being pushed further into the future. Not only are large new oil fields still being discovered (such as the Kashagan Field in the north of the Caspian Sea), but modern technology is bringing other forms of ecologically-friendly energy supplies on stream and higher prices will unlock shale oil supplies. The strategic importance of the Middle East has therefore declined, particularly since insignificant quantities of oil from the region go to America. And with that decline goes less need for geostrategic intervention by the US.

    For the first time since the Six Day War in 1967 there is a realistic possibility of stability in the area, assuming the super-powers take a constructive approach to détente, and are willing to jointly police the region.

    Regional implications of détente with Russia

    The benefits of regional peace to the Middle East will, hopefully, materialise. Turkey is important, and will need to be considered as well. The coup attempt earlier this year, which was likely supported if not actually instigated by the US, has resulted in Erdogan tightening his grip on all opposition to his rule. However, Erdogan may have become Russia’s puppet, because the Russians appear to have tipped him off ahead of the coup and ensured its failure. If this is indeed the case, not only does he owe his power to Russia, but Russia can take it away. Under Russian influence, we can expect Turkey to continue to lean away from her impractical and unrealistic hopes of joining the EU, and instead pursue her more recent ambitions for membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. That would offer Turkey the best long-term future.

    With Turkey’s future direction appearing to be decided, far more important is the effect of a reset with Russia on Europe and the European Union. As NATO members, European nations have gone along with Russian sanctions, which have been detrimental particularly to Germany’s economy. Their removal will give Germany a new long-term trade market of considerable potential, reducing her dependence on trade with other EU states, particularly France, Spain and Italy. The possibility of a new Hanseatic League, about which I wrote last March, is now on the cardsi. I was very surprised that it hadn’t been considered by the British Government and discussed with the Germans as a Plan B in the event of a vote for Brexit. However, the prospect of détente with Russia leads to a new Hanseatic League now becoming a realistic possibility.

    Briefly, the trade route to Russia, both by sea through the Baltic and overland by rail and road, offers enormous trading potential for Germany, Britain, Holland, and Scandinavia. To this we can add Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, and to a lesser extent, Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia. Furthermore, a northern trade route will link into China’s One Belt One Road project, further enhancing its importance. In short, the long-term future of France, Spain, Italy and Greece will be challenged by the rehabilitation of Russian trade, and potentially become one of relative isolation. An overriding reason why Russia will become so important is because of her partnership with China in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Russia is, with sub-Saharan Africa, the source of natural resources for China’s planned industrialisation of all Asia. And as a resource-rich country, Russia will benefit from the continuing rise in raw material and energy prices. Détente with America and NATO will improve her economic outlook considerably, but she needs European commercial technologies and manufacturing techniques to help rebuild her own middle class’s wealth.

    The underlying reasons a SALT3 will work for Russia are all there, and Trump is likely to take the view that Western Europe should not be his responsibility. There is little US trade with Russia, so trade negotiations for America are not in this mix, simplifying matters considerably. The trade bun-fight will be mainly confined to negotiations with China.

    We can be sure that there will be a summit between President Xi and President Trump early next year, because Henry Kissinger, who is trusted by the Chinese, and despite his great age has been sent by Trump to arrange it. Reports in the press that Kissinger’s visit last week was just to calm things down after Trump’s telephone call with the Taiwanese leader are wide of the mark. Trump is simply establishing his negotiating position from the outset.

    Trump is of the opinion that businessmen, not diplomats, should control trade negotiations. While diplomats might view this approach as naïve, the fact is Trump will be setting the agenda. Consequently, he is likely to be dismissive of past agreements, and impatient with the snail’s pace common in diplomatic trade negotiations. He will most likely wish to handle trade negotiations with China himself.

    In order that trade negotiations progress without misunderstandings he has nominated Iowa Governor Terry Branstad for the post of Ambassador to China. Branstad has known President Xi through previous visits, and should be an effective communications channel. That’s the soft part of the deal. The hard part is Trump’s rhetoric, and his willingness to talk to Taiwan, which has established his opening gambit. His objective will be to get China to stop manufacturing copies of American goods, hacking into commercial websites to steal trade and technological secrets, and abusing intellectual property. It is likely China will agree to tighten up on this behaviour, in which case a new trade agreement can be reached.

    While diplomats might find Trump’s style damaging to their careful construction of trade relations over time, there is little doubt his approach has merit. Success with China, even if it is limited in scope, is likely to be the outcome. It could alter not only the way trade agreements with China are set in the future, but could override the whole WTO process for other international trade relationships as well. And here again, we see the EU with its antiquated and obstructive approach to trade being most challenged.

    At the end of the day, Trump’s language is one the Chinese will understand, and in return for backing off over Taiwan, they are likely to concede America’s beef over intellectual property abuses, hacking and commercial espionage. China’s focus is moving away from that sort of business anyway, towards higher-level services and improved infrastructure for its rapidly-growing middle classes, and she plans to spread the benefits of her industrialisation throughout Asia.

    Furthermore, there are likely to be echoes from Trump’s big-bang on trade. Removing diplomats from the act of setting the trade agenda, disconnects trade from geopolitical considerations generally, allowing Japan, for instance, to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. It is even conceivable that the US itself might apply to join it at a future date, in which case, you heard it here first.

    Trump’s trade negotiations with China, if successful, could have far-reaching effects. They could, of course, go badly wrong, but the Chinese are realists and will almost certainly adapt to the new reality. It is in their interests to strike a deal with Trump, swiftly giving him concessions that established diplomatic practice would be unlikely to yield.

    Political and economic consequences for America

    In the first half of 2017, Trump is likely to achieve both détente with Russia and a new, better trade deal with China. If so, his pre-election stance, that the American establishment was failing the people, will have been amply proven. Trump will likely be riding high in the opinion polls.

    However, you cannot demolish the status quo without consequences. While much good will be achieved if Trump’s approach to Russia and China succeeds, the EU will be undermined both politically and financially. The European Union is already threatening to break up following Brexit, and Trump’s détente with Russia could give Germany a realistic opportunity to cast off from the European Project. The financial cost of a European break-up will be a difficult pill for Germany to swallow, and renewed trade links with Britain and Russia is her best shot at recovery. The future for the euro, whatever happens, is being challenged, more so if Germany decides to replace it with a new Deutschemark. If Germany replaces the euro, the Eurozone’s banking system and currency will be increasingly vulnerable to collapse. And if the Eurozone has a banking crisis, it will inevitably infect the global banking system, undermining America’s banks as well.

    If we make the optimistic assumption that somehow the Eurozone and its currency manage to stagger on, there is a further problem for America. Industrial raw material prices have been rising strongly throughout 2016, measured in dollars, despite the dollar’s strength against other currencies. Trump’s stated ambition, to cause US infrastructure investment to rise significantly, coincides with China’s thirteenth five-year plan for building new Silk Roads and associated projects. Consequently, both America and China will be aggressively bidding against each other for raw materials in 2017.

    Price rises in raw materials and energy will become a major factor driving the rate of price inflation sharply higher on America’s Main Street. Yet the ability of the Fed to raise interest rates in their traditional attempts to limit price inflation will be checked by the height of the nominal rate that will trigger widespread debt liquidation. Debt, as the cliché goes, is the gorilla in the room.

    Trump’s basic problem is that he understands business, but not necessarily economics. He obviously thinks that trade deficits arise from unfair trade practices. It’s a common mistake, but they don’t. They arise from unfunded government spending and the expansion of bank credit. His fundamental belief, that fair terms of trade will make America great again is therefore badly flawed.

    It is also difficult to see where he stands on monetary policy, if at all. In business, he has personally benefited from the expansion of bank credit, but does he understand the eventual price consequences of unlimited expansion of bank credit? Very few businessmen do, in which case we can only hope he will be well advised.

    Past US presidents, from Herbert Hoover onwards, have been generally poorly advised on basic economic theory, thinking the state is well equipped to fix things that go wrong. The evidence for this error is found in the unremitting accumulation of public sector debt since the Wall Street Crash in 1929, confirmed when Roosevelt devalued the dollar against gold in 1934, and reconfirmed when Nixon temporarily abandoned all gold convertibility in 1971. That Trump might be better advised must remain a pipe-dream, unless contradicted by events.

    Therefore, my broad expectations for 2017, the first year of the Trump presidency, is success in foreign and trade policy will be offset by rising price inflation and falling asset prices as interest rates rise (see my article dated 1st December, Credit cycles and gold), terminating in a credit-crunch from higher nominal interest rates. Good on the geopolitics, bad on the economy.

     

  • China To Hand Over Seized US Drone "Under These Conditions"

    On Saturday morning, the Pentagon was eager to announce that China would return a U.S. Navy underwater drone after its military scooped up the submersible in the South China Sea late this week and sparked a row that drew in President-elect Donald Trump. As previously reported, Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said that “through direct engagement with Chinese authorities, we have secured an understanding that the Chinese will return the UUV to the United States.”

    In retrospect, the Pentagon may have declared victory too soon. According to the South China Morning Post, China’s handover of the drone will come “with conditions“, adding that “Beijing is expected to demand the United States scale down its ­surveillance in the South China Sea when it hands back a seized US underwater drone.” Beijing would also “seek an expansion in the code for unplanned military encounters in the disputed waters to cover drones like the one seized by a Chinese warship off the Philippine coast near Subic Bay on Thursday.”

    Zhang Zhexin, a professor from the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said he ­expected it would take about 10 days for the drone to be returned. The demand for US concessions stems from the fact that “China is worried that there will be more action from the US during its power transition period,” Zhexin said. “Beijing will possibly talk to the US about expanding the code for unplanned encounters at sea to include unmanned underwater vehicles.”

    Currently the code includes a set of standard operational procedures ­designed to minimize the risks of unintended maritime encounters, but it does not have a procedure to deal with underwater drones.

    China is concerned that despite the US insistence that the drone was used for purely peaceful purposes. its deployment had ulterior motives. Zhang Huang, a professor from the PLA National Defence University, said the unmanned underwater vehicle could be used to gather data on Chinese naval actions, and the navigation details of Chinese submarines, People’s Daily reported.

    Zhang Baohui, a China security specialist at Hong Kong’s ­Lingnan University, said the drone could be used to collect data on factors such as currents and salinity, as well as special ­sonar signals from Chinese nuclear submarines. “Both uses have military applications. The first could be used to track possible routes by Chinese submarines,” he said.

    “The second could be used to detect and trace Chinese nuclear submarines.

    “The drone is part of the US’ anti-submarine ­warfare.”

    Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that after Trump lashed out at China over the weekend, saying it stole an underwater drone from the U.S. Navy in an “unprecedented act”, Beijing’s official response was muted, although there was far more “passion” in the local nationalist tabloid press, such as the Global Times which mocked Trump’s demeanor as “lagging far behind the White House spokespersons.”

    “China has so far practiced restraint at Trump’s provocations as he’s yet to enter the White House,” the Global Times said. “But this attitude won’t last too long after he officially becomes the U.S. president, were he still to treat China in the manner he tweeted today.”

    And yet despite the occasional press outburst, Beijing is holding its fire at least until after he takes office next month. Until then, it looks set to continue the stance of “strategic composure” articulated after Trump questioned the U.S.’s policy of diplomatically recognizing Beijing instead of Taiwan.

    However, just like Obama is contemplating his options on how to retaliate to “Russian hacking” if at all, China is likewise planning its next move:

    Beijing will “strike back firmly” if Trump as president openly challenges China’s core interests like Taiwan, Tibet, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, said Shi Yinhong, director of the Center on American Studies at Renmin University in Beijing and an adviser to China’s State Council, the cabinet. Options include recalling the ambassador, stopping international cooperation, fighting a trade war — even severing diplomatic ties.

     

    “So far, China has adopted a cautious, measured approach of wait and see,” Shi said. “The government is still closely observing what Trump is up to and in the process of forming a clear view on his possible policy. This approach will likely continue into his presidency for the first couple of months.”

     While some policy makers in Beijing initially hoped that Trump would bring a more pragmatic approach, that view is quickly fading. Indeed, if anything, with every incremental tweet, Trump promises that it is only a matter of time before a far more serious diplomatic scandal erupts.

    Trump’s reaction to the drone incident raises questions about whether that’s the case. He deleted his first tweet after writing “unpresidented” rather than “unprecedented.” Later, after tensions appeared to have been diffused, Trump sent another tweet: “We should tell China that we don’t want the drone they stole back.- let them keep it!”

    Others, like Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra, disagreed and said that “such a response would deprive the U.S. of the ability to assess what information China sought to obtain while analyzing the drone after it was seized”

    He added that “It just shows that Trump hasn’t thought out his policy before he tweets it,” Davis said. “The risk is that he is going to confront China to the point where it is destabilizing.” 

    Indeed, if anything, the drone incident has shown how quickly tensions between the nations could escalate, particularly as China challenges U.S. naval supremacy in Asia, and what makes the situation especially volatile is that suddenly both the actions of China and the US are likewise unpredictable:

    “Under Trump, China-U.S. conflicts in the South China Sea are likely to ratchet up or even deepen, with unpredictable incidents like the Bowditch episode to occur from time to time,” Li Jie, a senior researcher at the Chinese Naval Research Institute in Beijing. One could say the same about China, whose drone confiscation was seen as a substantial escalation in the festering diplomatic conflict between the two nations.

    The overseas edition of The People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, said on its social media WeChat account Saturday night that China’s capture of the drone was legal because it was conducting “military operations in sensitive waters” and rules about drone activities are ambiguous.  “This is a gray area,” the article said. “If the U.S. military can send the drone over, China can certainly seize it.”

    Actually, as shown previously, the drone was snatched in a zone in the South China Sea that was in close proximity to the Philippines and not even inside the confines of the nine-dash line.

     

    As Bloomberg concludes, “while the motive for the seizure remains unclear, it’s a concern no matter whether it was ordered from Beijing or the act of a rogue captain, according to Michael Mazza, research fellow in foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. “To me all of these various explanations are troubling,” he said. “If we do learn it was one ship acting on its own that’s not cause for a sigh of relief.”

    One thing, however, is certain: should China indeed issue conditions which have to be met prior to the return of the US underwater drone, there will be many more, and far angrier tweets from Trump, the response to which from China will be critical, and may finally force the euphoric market to pay attention.  Keep a close eye on what Beijing says in the coming days, and certainly keep a very close eye on Trump’s twitter feed. That’s where the action in the final trading week of the year will be.

  • The Hacking Evidence Against Russia Is Extremely Weak

    Last week, German security officials said that Russia hacked secret German communications and provided them to Wikileaks (English translation).

    But now, German officials say that the communications were likely leaked from an insider within the German parliament, the Bundestag (English translation).

    Similarly, when a treasure trove of secret NSA tools were revealed, Russian hackers were initially blamed.

    But it turns out that it was probably a leak by an NSA insider.

    So claims that Russia is behind any specific hacking incident need to be taken with a grain of salt …

    A group of high-level former American intelligence officials – including the man who designed the NSA’s global surveillance system (Bill Binney), a 27-year CIA officials who personally delivered the daily briefing to both Democratic and Republican presidents (Ray McGovern) , and others – say that the Democratic Party emails were not hacked, but were actually leaked by insiders.

    A former British intelligence analyst and British Ambassador to Uzbekistan (Craig Murray) alleges that he personally met the leaker, and that it was an American working for the NSA.

    But whether or not these American and British intelligence officials are right that the Democratic emails were leaked by insiders as opposed to hacked by Ruskies, the fact remains that the evidence for Russian hacking is very weak.

    Initially, the main allegation for Russia hacking Democratic emails to throw the election for trump is that Wikileaks released Democratic – but not Republican – emails.

    However, the RNC says that their cybersecurity stopped attempts to hack into their computers. If true, then it may be that the Dems were simply more careless than the GOP. Indeed, John Podesta fell for a basic phishing scam.

    Moreover, it’s famously difficult to attribute the source of hacks.

    A leading IT think tank – the Institute for Critical Infrastructure Technology – points out:

    Malicious actors can easily position their breach to be attributed to Russia.  It’s common knowledge among even script kiddies that all one needs to do is compromise a system geolocated in Russia (ideally in a government office) and use it as a beachhead for attack so that indicators of compromise lead back to Russia. For additional operational security, use publically available whitepapers and reports to determine the tool, techniques, and procedures of a well-known nation-state sponsored advanced persistent threat (APT), access Deep Web forums such as Alphabay to acquire a malware variant or exploit kit utilized in prolific attacks, and then employ the malware in new campaigns that will inevitably be attributed to foreign intelligence operations. Want to add another layer? Compromise a Chinese system, leap-frog onto a hacked Russian machine, and then run the attack from China to Russia to any country on the globe. Want to increase geopolitical tensions, distract the global news cycle, or cause a subtle, but exploitable shift in national positions? Hack a machine in North Korea and use it to hack the aforementioned machine in China, before compromising the Russian system and launching global attacks. This process is so common and simple that’s its virtually “Script Kiddie 101” among malicious cyber upstarts.

     

    ***

     

    Incident Response techniques and processes are not comprehensive or holistic enough to definitively attribute an incident to a specific threat actor from the multitude of script kiddies, hacktivists, lone-wolf threat actors, cyber-criminals, cyber-jihadists, hail-mary threats, and nation-state sponsored advanced persistent threats (APTs), who all possess the means, motive, and opportunity, to attack minimally secured, high profile targets.

     

    ***

     

    Attribution might be reliable if the target is well-protected, if the target operates in a niche field, or if the malware involved in the incident is unique because one or more of those characteristics can be deterministic of the sophistication and resources of the threat actor. Attribution is less exact in the case of the DNC breach because the mail servers compromised were not well-secured; the organization of a few hundred personnel did not practice proper cyber-hygiene; the DNC has a global reputation and is a valuable target to script kiddies, hacktivists, lone-wolf cyber-threat actors, cyber-criminals, cyber-jihadists, hail-mary threats, and nation-state sponsored advanced persistent threats (APTs); and because the malware discovered on DNC systems were well-known, publicly disclosed, and variants could be purchased on Deep Web markets and forums.

     

    ***

     

    Both APT28 and APT29 are well-known sophisticated threat actors that have been extensively profiled by cybersecurity firms such as FireEye. As a result, their profiles, operational behavior, tools, and malware could all be easily emulated by even an unsophisticated adversary in a campaign against an insecure target such as the DNC, that did not prioritize cybersecurity, cyber-hygiene, or system cyber resiliency. For instance, the cyber-criminal group Patchwork Elephant, known for adopting malware from other campaigns, could easily have also conducted the DNC/ RNC attacks by emulating APT28 and APT29.

    James Carden – a former Advisor to the US-Russia Presidential Commission at the US State Department – writes:

    Evidence of a connection between the Russian government and the hackers that are believed to have stolen the DNC/John Podesta e-mails remains illusory. Cyber-security expert Jeffrey Carr has observed that “there is ZERO technical evidence to connect those Russian-speaking hackers to the GRU, FSB, SVR, or any other Russian government department.” The very real possibility that non-state actors carried out the hack of the DNC has been conspicuously absent from the mainstream narrative of “Russian interference.”

    Craig Murray notes:

    Despite himself being a former extremely competent KGB chief, Vladimir Putin [is alleged to have] put Inspector Clouseau in charge of Russian security and left him to get on with it. The Russian Bear has been the symbol of the country since the 16th century. So we have to believe that the Russian security services set up top secret hacking groups identifying themselves as “Cozy Bear” and “Fancy Bear”. Whereas no doubt the NSA fronts its hacking operations by a group brilliantly disguised as “The Flaming Bald Eagles”, GCHQ doubtless hides behind “Three Lions on a Keyboard” and the French use “Marianne Snoops”.

     

    What is more, the Russian disguised hackers work Moscow hours and are directly traceable to Moscow IP addresses. This is plain and obvious nonsense. If crowdstrike [the consulting firm hired by the Democratic National Committee] were tracing me just now they would think I am in Denmark. Yesterday it was the Netherlands. I use Tunnel Bear, one of scores of easily available VPN’s and believe me, the Russian FSB have much better resources. We are also supposed to believe that Russia’s hidden hacking operation uses the name of the famous founder of the Communist Cheka, Felix Dzerzhinsky, as a marker and an identify of “Guccifer2” (get the references – Russian oligarchs and their Gucci bling and Lucifer) – to post pointless and vainglorious boasts about its hacking operations, and in doing so accidentally leave bits of Russian language script to be found.

     

    The Keystone Cops portrayal of one of the world’s most clinically efficient intelligence services is of a piece with the anti-Russian racism which has permeated the Democratic Party rhetoric for quite some time. Frankly nobody in what is vaguely their right mind would believe this narrative.

    It is not that “Cozy Bear”, “Fancy Bear” and “Guccifer2” do not exist. It is that they are not agents of the Russian government and not the source of the DNC documents. Guccifer2 is understood in London to be the fairly well known amusing bearded Serbian who turns up at parties around Camden under the (assumed) name of Gavrilo Princip.

     

    Of course there were hacking and phishing attacks on the DNC. Such attacks happen every day to pretty well all of us. There were over 1,050 attacks on my own server two days ago, and many of them often appear to originate in Russia – though more appear to originate in the USA. I attach a cloudfare threat map. It happens to be from a while ago as I don’t have a more up to date one to hand from my technical people. Of course in many cases the computers attacking have been activated as proxies by computers in another country entirely. Crowdstrike apparently expect us to believe that Putin’s security services have not heard of this or of the idea of disguising which time zone you operate from.

     


     

    One Day’s Attempts to Hack My Own Server – Happens Every Single Day

     

    Pretty well all of us get phishing emails pretty routinely. Last year my bank phoned me up to check if I was really trying to buy a car with my credit card in St Petersburg. I don’t know what the DNC paid “Crowdstrike” for their narrative but they got a very poor return for their effort indeed. That the New York Times promotes it as any kind of evidence is a truly damning indictment of the mainstream media.

    Andrew Cockburn asks some hard-hitting questions:

    1/ The DNC hackers inserted the name of the founder of Russian intelligence, in Russian, in the metadata of the hacked documents.  Why would the G.R.U., Russian military intelligence do that?

     

    2/ If the hackers were indeed part of Russian intelligence, why did they use a free Russian email account, or, in the hack of the state election systems, a Russian-owned server?  Does Russian intelligence normally display such poor tradecraft?

     

    3/ Why would Russian intelligence, for the purposes of hacking the election systems of Arizona and Illinois, book space on a Russian-owned server and then use only English, as documents furnished by Vladimir Fomenko, proprietor of Kings Servers, the company that owned the server in question, clearly indicate?

     

    4/ Numerous reports ascribe the hacks to hacking groups known as APT 28 or “Fancy Bear” and APT 29 or “Cozy Bear.” But these groups had already been accused of  nefarious actions on behalf of Russian intelligence prior to the hacks under discussion.  Why would the Kremlin and its intelligence agencies select well-known groups to conduct a regime-change operation on the most powerful country on earth?

     

    5/ It has been reported in the New York Times, without attribution, that U.S. intelligence has identified specific G.R.U. officials who directed the hacking. Is this true, and if so, please provide details (Witness should be sworn)

     

    6/ The joint statement issued by the DNI and DHS on October 7 2016 confirmed that US intelligence had no evidence of official Russian involvement in the leak of hacked documents to Wikileaks, etc, saying only that the leaks were “consistent with the methods and motivations of Russian-directed efforts.”  Has the US acquired any evidence whatsoever since that time regarding Russian involvement in the leaks?

    So while Russia may have hacked the Democratic emails and then delivered them to Wikileaks, the evidence is extremely weak.

  • Canada Sees 5x Surge In American Refugee Applications… To 28

    Leading up to the 2016 Presidential election, dozens of overconfident celebrities and political figures promised to flee to Canada if Trump emerged victorious (we noted them all here: “These Are The Celebrities Who Vowed To Leave America If Trump Wins“).  Unfortunately, none of them have announced plans to follow through on those promises despite news from Canada’s immigration officials that applications for political refugee status from Americans was up 5x YoY in November.

    That said, this may be one of those times when a YoY% change does not really do the absolute number justice, because that 5-fold increase in refugee applicants translates into… 28 people filing asylum applications in November 2016. 

    Moreover, as HeatStreet points out, none of them are likely to actually be granted asylum with only 2 requests being approved for Americans since 2010.  Apparently the Canadian government doesn’t recognize the various “triggers” that have set off these disaffected Hillary supporters as valid reasons for refugee status.

    Of the 28 who applied, it’s possible none will be approved to relocate to America’s northern neighbor. The CBC found only two successful claims for asylum out of hundreds of cases filed from the U.S. since 2010. There was no successful claim out of the 170 filed in 2015.

     

    If you aren’t fleeing an unjust war, or fleeing actual threat of death, Canada is likely to decline your request. If you’re not applying as a refugee, the Canadian legal immigration process can take about a decade to navigate.

    Triggered

    While most celebrities who threatened to leave the U.S. have since said they were “just joking,” CBC News couldn’t officially confirm whether any of the 28 applications filed in November came from disaffected Hollywood snowflakes.  When asked about the applications, Nicholas Dorion, a spokesman for the Canada Border Services Agency, simply said that “refugee claims are protected under the Privacy Act” which prohibits the disclosure of any details of applicants.

    Meanwhile,  applicants have a sympathizer in Jamie Liew, a University of Ottawa professor and immigration lawyer, who told CBC News that it’s not surprising that so many disaffected Hillary snowflakes were triggered by the election given the “concerning language, including hate; exclusion; deportation” that surfaced during the campaigning cycle. 

    “I don’t think it’s surprising at all,” she said.

     

    “The rhetoric coming from the (U.S. political) discussion… was filled with a lot of concerning language, including hate; exclusion; deportation… I could see why people would be concerned for their own safety, their own lives, and evaluate whether they could live (there).

     

    Liew has been involved in a handful of American refugee claims over the years. Such cases can involve victims of domestic violence, or soldiers escaping wars like in Iraq and Afghanistan. She recalled one case related to death threats against a same-sex couple.

     

    “It really doesn’t matter what country a refugee comes from. That is not the central issue in determining if someone is a refugee,” Liew said.

     

    “A country could be democratic. A country could be espousing … human rights. What really matters is how people are being treated on the ground, and protected by the state that they’re in.”

     

    That said, Americans don’t have much success when claiming refugee status in Canada: “Obviously if you’re coming from a war-torn state that is obviously an easier case to be made. But that does not make it impossible for someone from the United States to make a claim for refugee protection.”

     

    Only a minuscule share of American refugee claimants get approved in Canada.

    While we wish these 28 applicants the best of luck in their process, we remain immensely disappointed that Lena Dunham has decided to stay in the U.S. and would like to remind her one last time that travel arrangements are still set to the extent she wants to follow through on her pledge to move to Vancouver.

  • Coup Or No Coup: What To Watch For As The Electoral College Votes On Monday

    With even Harvard’s Larry Lessig admitting that his efforts to flip the Electoral College against Trump have failed miserably (see “Harvard Professor Admits His Efforts To Turn Electoral College Against Trump Have Failed Miserably“), it’s a near certainty that Trump will, in fact, be elected President when the Electoral College casts their votes tomorrow. 

    That said, there could always be surprises and, as such, The Hill has published a list of five things you should keep an eye on as electors get set to cast their ballots.  First, here is how the 538 electors should cast their ballots if they all strictly follow the will of the voters in their respective states. 

    EC 1

     

    That said, we know that at least one Texas elector, Chris Suprun,  has vowed to go rogue tomorrow and anxious eyes will be waiting to see if anyone decides to join him.  As The Hill points out, there hasn’t been an election since 1836 in which more than 1 elector changed his vote, so even 2 defectors would make history.

    There’s no evidence of a widespread number of Republican defections—just one Republican elector from Texas has gone public with plans to break from Trump.

     

    But there hasn’t been an election in which more than one elector jumped ship for reasons other than the death of a candidate since 1836, according to the nonprofit FairVote. So a defection by even one more Republican elector would make history.

    The next thing to watch is whether any Democrat electors will cast protest votes.  A small group of Democratic electors had vowed to join Larry Lessig’s coup attempt by throwing their support behind an alternative Republican candidate.  While this now seems like a remote possibility, it is something to watch for.

    Democratic electors are the ones beating the drums for the revolt, yet they’re largely powerless to change the outcome.

     

    A handful of electors are already planning on uniting around a Republican alternative as a protest, but it’s still unclear how many are willing to join the protest.

     

    In theory, a unified front of the 232 Democrats could join with 38 Republicans to elect an alternative president. But in practice, the anti-Trump electors will be lucky if more than a dozen Democrats break.

    Electoral College Map

     

    With 29 states and the District of Columbia binding their electors by law, it will also be interesting to see if anyone in those states choose to defect, and if so, what penalties will be levied upon them.

    The country’s presidential electors are chosen through different methods across the country—some are elected directly while others are picked by the candidates themselves or by the state party.

     

    Bucking their jurisdiction’s votes could also have consequences for faithless electors. 29 states and the District of Columbia bind their electors by law, mostly with small fines as retribution for going rogue. No faithless electors have ever been punished, so political junkies will be watching to see if that changes.

    Finally, when all the voting is said and done, all eyes will be watching how the candidates and their respective parties react.  Will Trump launch a massive tweet storm blasting “faithless electors” and/or will Democrats finally tone down the “Russian hacking” rhetoric and calls to scrap the Electoral College system?  Somehow we suspect that finally admitting they ran a failed candidate that was doomed to lose from the start is not a viable alternative for the talking heads of the leftist media…so we’re somewhat less than hopeful.

  • Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Silver, Copper, Bonds and the Dollar Market Correlations (Video)

    By EconMatters


    We go over some viewer questions in this video regarding trading theory, and then go over a question regarding market correlations of assets in the metals market. Blame the programmers for overly simplistic market correlations, they are just being lazy! But know the nuances of each specific market because you are giving away too much edge to just lump everything into general trade baskets.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Ukraine Nationalizes Its Largest Bank, Which Holds 36% Of All Domestic Deposits

    It was just a few short days ago, on Wednesday of last week, that Ukraine’s largest lender, PrivatBank, said that reports it will be nationalized were “attempts to create panic and destabilize the political situation in the country.

    Local media, quoted by Reuters, speculated that Privatbank, which is part-owned by one of Ukraine’s richest men, billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky, could be privatized if it does not meet a year-end deadline for Ukraine banks to reach a capital ratio requirement agreed under an International Monetary Fund bailout program. However, what made Privatbank unique, is that with some $6 billion in private deposits – or 36.5% of Ukrainian banks’ total – it puts America’s own TBTF banks to shame: the bank is an absolute giant which controls nearly half of the local banking sector.

    On Wednesady, the bank’s deputy chairman reaffirmed that there was nothing to worry about and said its customers had received phone calls and messages telling them the bank would be taken under state control due to a failure to meet the required capitalization level. “Exploiting the ignorance of citizens about nationalization, they stir up panic,” Oleg Gorokhovsky said, without saying who was behind the reports.

    Separately, the bank stated that “the information attack on Ukraine’s largest bank, Privatbank linked to the ‘pseudo-nationalisation’ of the bank is primarily directed at clients of the bank and is an attempt to destabilize the political situation in the country.” It added that the reports of its imminent nationalization were politically motivated.

    * * *

    Fast forward four days, when late on Sunday night, the “attempts to create panic and destabilize the political situation” in Ukraine turned out to be true after all, and whether politically motivated or otherwise, the Ukrainian government announced hours ago that it would nationalize the suddenly very ironically named PrivatBank, unleashing one of the biggest shake-ups of the banking system since the country plunged into political and economic turmoil two years ago.

    In a statement late on Sunday, the government made no mention of the size of the potential burden to the state budget, but said it would ensure a stable transition and the smooth functioning of the bank.

    According to Reuters, The Finance Ministry would take over PrivatBank, with Finance Minister Oleksandr Danylyuk adding that depositors’ money was safe and secured by the state, and that the bank was functioning normally. It was not immediately clear if Ukraine had $6 billion in liquid funds to distribute to PrivatBank depositors should there be a run on the bank tomorrow, as some expect.

    “The private shareholders of PrivatBank proposed to the government that it become the bank’s owner in the interests of its clients,” the government said in a statement.

    “The transition period begins on 19 December. The state will ensure a smooth transition and the stable functioning of the bank.”

    The unprecedented bailout could fuel instability in Ukraine, where opposition parties have repeatedly called for snap elections to unseat the pro-Western leadership that took power after the 2014 Maidan protests. As Reuters notes, the opposition has harnessed the anger of depositors from banks that were previously shut down in a sweeping cleanup of the financial system, mobilizing rallies and demanding the central bank chief’s resignation.

    The nationalization announcement came just days before parliament was to vote on next year’s budget, which must stick to a shortfall of 3 percent of economic output, as agreed with Ukraine’s international backers.

    There was no official statement from PrivatBank. Oleg Gorokhovsky, PrivatBank’s deputy chairman, wrote on Facebook that the bank had seen increased withdrawals in recent days of 2 billion hryvnia ($76 million) daily against previous peaks of around 1.5 billion hryvnia ($57 million). “Of course, the bank needed a capital increase and to improve the collateral for loans,” he said.

    The plan was to do this over a period to 2018. However, Gorokhovsky said after the outbreak of violence in the east and against the backdrop of a sinking economy, the bank experienced what he described as a series of “information attacks” that led to an outflow of funds from individuals and corporate clients.

    “The decision on a voluntary and peaceful transfer of the bank to state ownership was made at a time when we realized that we could not survive the (latest) information attack,” he wrote.

    In other words, while the real reason for the nationalization, it appears the owners were eager to dump what remains of the bank into the lap of Ukraine’s taxpayers, most of whom also happen to be the bank’s depositors.

    Incidentally, recapitalizing PrivatBank and other large lenders and reducing their lending to shareholders was one of the tasks mandated by a $17.5 billion IMF aid-for-reforms program.

    Meanwhile, the political future of former PrivatBank owner, Kolomoisky, remains unclear: his control of strategic industries, including energy and media holdings, has put him at the center of ongoing power battles among the political elite since street protests ousted Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovich and the pro-Russian rebellion erupted in the east.

    PrivatBank’s nationalization is the culmination of the banking sector cleanup, which has closed dozens of lenders that were seen as little more than personal piggy banks for their owners. Should there be a major run on the bank in the coming days, Ukraine may once again emerge as a centra of financial and economic instability in the region, despite the IMF’s implicit backing

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Today’s News 18th December 2016

  • Paul Craig Roberts Warns "A CIA-led Coup Against American Democracy Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    This article by Moon of Alabama is not conspiracy theory: Read it carefully. Check out the links.

    The below theses are thus far only a general outlay…

    • There is an "elite" coup attempt underway against the U.S. President-elect Trump.
    • The coup is orchestrated by the camp of Hillary Clinton in association with the CIA and neoconservative powers in Congress.
    • The plan is to use the CIA's "Russia made Trump the winner" nonsense to swing the electoral college against him. The case would then be bumped up to Congress. Major neocon and warmonger parts of the Republicans could then move the presidency to Clinton or, if that fails, put Trump's vice president-elect Mike Pence onto the throne. The regular bipartisan war business, which a Trump presidency threatens to interrupt, could continue.
    • Should the coup succeed violent insurrections in the United States are likely to ensue with unpredictable consequences.

     

    No general plan has been published. The scheme though is pretty obvious by now. However, the following contains some speculation.

     

    The priority aim is to deny Trump the presidency. He is too independent and a danger for several power centers within the ruling U.S. power circles. The selection of Tillerson as new Secretary of State only reinforces this (Prediction: Bolton will not get the Deputy position.)  Tillerson is for profitable stability, not for regime change adventures.

     

    The institutional Trump enemies are:

    • The CIA which has become the Central Assassination Agency under the Bush and Obama administrations. Huge parts of its budgets depend on a continuation of the war on Syria and the drone assassination campaigns in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere. Trump's more isolationist policies would likely end these campaigns and the related budget troughs.
    • The weapons industry which could lose its enormous sales to its major customers in the Persian Gulf should a President Trump reduce U.S. interference in the Middle East and elsewhere.
    • The neoconservatives and Likudniks who want the U.S. as Israel's weapon to strong arm the Middle East to the Zionists' benefit.
    • The general war hawks, military and "humanitarian interventionists" to whom any reduction of the U.S. role as primary power in the world is anathema to their believes.

    Read more here…

    The article is a documented and accurate description of a coup that is underway. The extraordinary lies that are being perpetrated by the media and by members of the US government have as their obvious purpose the prevention of a Donald Trump presidency. There is no other reason for the extraordinary blatant lies for which there is not a shred of evidence. Indeed, there is massive real evidence to the contrary. Yet the coup proceeds and gathers steam.

    President Eisenhower warned us more than a half century ago of the danger that the military/security complex presents to US democracy.

    In the decades since Eisenhower’s warning, the military/security complex has become more powerful than the American people and is demonstrating its power by overturning a presidential election.

    Will the coup succeed?

    In my opinion, former and present members of the US government and the media would not dare to so obviously and openly participate in a coup against democracy and an elected president unless they expect the coup to succeed.

    It is an easy matter for the ruling interests to bribe electors to vote differently than their states. The cost of the bribes is miniscule compared to the wealth and income streams that a trillion dollar annual budget provides to the military/security complex. The fake news of a Putin/Trump election-stealing plot generated by unsupported allegations of present and former members of US intelligence, the lame-duck President Obama, and the presstitute media provide the cover for electors to break with precedent “in order to save America from a Russian stooge.”

    The CIA-controlled European media, the politicians in Washington’s European vassal states, NATO officials, and the brainwashed European peoples will support the coup against Trump.

    The only ones speaking against the coup are the voters who elected Trump—all of whom are alleged to have been deceived by Russian fake news— the Russian government, and the 200 websites falsely described by the Washington Post and the secret organization PropOrNot as Russian agents.

    In other words, those objecting to the coup are the ones described by the coup leaders as those who made the coup necessary.

    I do not know that the coup will succeed, but looking at the commitment so many high level people have made to the coup, I conclude that those bringing the coup expect it to succeed.

    Therefore, we should take very seriously the expectation of success that those who control levers of power are demonstrating.?

  • How Trump's Tax Changes Will Impact You?

    “Reduce taxes across-the-board, especially for working and middle-income Americans” – that was Trump’s campaign pledge. And now he is about to move into the White House and is backed by Republican majorities in both House and Senate, he has a real shot at fulfilling that pledge to the letter. So, what are the specifics of his plan, and how would it affect you?

    As HowMuch.net details, first and foremost, Trump’s income tax reform is a simplification: he wants to cut down the number of tax bands from seven to three. But simplifying is not necessarily the same as reducing taxes. As this graph demonstrates, some taxpayers would definitely benefit from Trump’s tax reform – especially those at the higher end of the income scale. There are others, however, who would see their tax rates go up. Especially those on lower incomes.

    The current income tax bands range from 10% and 15% at the lower end of the scale over 25%, 28%, 33% and 35% in the middle to the top band of 40%. Under the Trump plan, only three tax bands would remain: 12%, 25% and 33%.

    This would be good news for everyone currently in the top two brackets (35% and 40%). These taxpayers would see their effective rate drop down to 33%, by 2 and 7 percentage points respectively. Conversely, the simplification would bad news for the taxpayers in the lowest bracket (10%). These would see their effective tax rate go up by 2 percentage points, to 12%.

    But even in the middle, where many would stay in the same bands as before (25% and 33%), there would be losers as well as winners. Most people in the 15% bracket would drop down to a 12% rate. But a tiny sliver of top earners in this bracket (earning between $37,500 and $37,650) would have the misfortune of seeing their effective tax rate go up by 10 percentage points, to 25%.

    A similar thing would happen to the old 28% bracket: taxpayers with incomes between $91,150 and $112,500 would drop three percentage points to 25%, while those between $112,500 and $190,150 would see their tax rate go up 5 percentage points to 33%.

    All income amounts quoted here apply to single filers (left side of the graph); but the graph also shows the changes for joint filers (on the right). The calculation is pretty easy – double the amounts for the single filers.

    The graph does not take into account other aspects of the Trump tax plan not directly related to the changes to income tax bands, such as the increase of standard deductions and a cap on itemized deductions, although of course these would also have an impact on net incomes.

  • Trump Responds To Michelle Obama's Claim That He Is The "End Of Hope" For America

    Michelle Obama appeared on Oprah yesterday and continued to ignore the unspoken, but widely acknowledged and obeyed, tradition of not bashing incoming administrations.  When asked whether Obama was successful at bringing “hope” to America, rather answer the question, the first lady decided to attack Trump by saying that “now we’re feeling what not having hope feels like.”

    Is this Michelle’s idea of “going high” when other “go low?”  Notice she didn’t bother to offer any supporting evidence of how exactly Obama brought “hope” to Americans….could that be because there isn’t any?

    Oprah:  “Your husband’s administration, everything, the election was all about hope.  Do you think that this administration acheived that?

     

    Michelle:  “Yes.  I do.  Because we feel the difference now.  See, now we’re feeling what not having hope feels like.

     

    Perhaps these 9 charts we posted back in September accurately depict the “hope” that Michelle spoke of (see “Harvard Crushes The “Obama Recovery” Farce With 9 Simple Charts“):

    Harvard

     

    Or maybe these charts that we posted back in June better reflect Obama’s “Hope & Change” mantra…unfortunately, while the data scores big on the “Change” factor, it’s somewhat lacking on the “Hope” component (see “These Are The 9 Zero Hedge Charts Showing “Obama’s Recovery” That Angered The Washington Post“):

     

    Or perhaps this 16% decline in Black homeownership rates since 2004, which we discussed just yesterday, is more what Michelle had in mind (see “Obama “Housing Recovery” Crushes “Blacks, Young Adults” As Homeownership Rates Crash“):

    Homeownership

     

    Of course, never one to back down when attacked, Trump told a group of supporters at a rally in Mobile, Alabama that he assumed Michelle was “talking about the past, not the future.”

    “Michelle Obama said yesterday that there’s no hope.  But I assume she was talking about the past, not the future because I”m telling you we have tremendous hope and we have tremendous promise and we have tremendous potential.”

  • Bitter In Aleppo Defeat, US And EU Seek To Further Demonize Russia

    Submitted by Finian Cunningham via Stratgic-Culture.org,

    As Russian forces help liberate the Syrian city of Aleppo this week from a four-year terrorist siege, Washington and Europe step up threats of cyber war and economic aggression with sanctions. That’s no coincidence. It is the response of accomplices bitter in defeat.

    Perverse isn’t it? Instead of celebrating with the people of Syria over the liberation of Aleppo from terrorists; instead of sending massive humanitarian aid to the tens of thousands of civilians freed after being held under siege for four years by terrorist gangs; instead of commending Russia for its decisive role in restoring peace to Syria’s second biggest city, the US and European Union turn reality on its head and further demonize Moscow.

    The perverse behavior by Washington and its European satraps is simply a case of sour grapes. Very sour grapes.

    They have been proven spectacularly wrong about Syria. The liberation of Aleppo this week exposes the Western governments and media in their unrelenting falsehoods and systematic complicity in the Syrian war. This was never a pro-democracy uprising. It was a Western-backed criminal regime-change operation that was unleashed in March 2011, and which is now staring at ignominious defeat.

    The blood of up to half a million people and many more maimed is on the hands of American and European governments.

    It is no coincidence that Barack Obama this week invoked his putative presidential authority to double down on US intelligence claims that Russia hacked into the American elections to get Donald Trump into the White House. The stakes were raised to new unwieldy heights with White House claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally sanctioned the alleged hacking of Hillary Clinton’s emails. And Obama is now recklessly warning that his country will respond with cyber-warfare «at a place and time of our choosing».

    Meanwhile, European Union leaders this week decreed that economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia would be extended for another six months. The official reason for the measures was the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but it is obvious that the dramatic developments in Syria were the real motivating factor behind the EU’s decision to further penalize Russia.

    Addressing the EU summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel deplored atrocities allegedly committed in the northern city of Aleppo by Syrian state forces and their Russian and Iranian allies. European Council President Donald Tusk lamented that the EU was not «indifferent to the suffering of civilians in Aleppo».

    But where is the evidence either from Obama on alleged Russian cyberattacks to subvert the American presidential election or from the EU on alleged Russian (and Syrian) atrocities in Aleppo. There is, glaringly, no evidence. Yet on the back of breathless assertions, Washington is threatening to «retaliate», and European leaders are slapping more damaging sanctions on Russia. This is an insane policy of unjustified aggression.

    It is especially insane considering that present and former members of US intelligence agencies do not support the White House’s assertions about Russian cyberattacks. Indeed respected former US intelligence experts have cogently argued that Washington’s claims of Russian hacking are completely spurious. Moreover, two polls reported by the Washington Times and Washington Post this week also show that the majority of American people do not believe that Russia interfered in the US election.

    As for the American and European claims about «massacres» in Aleppo, amplified by the dutiful mainstream media all week, there is neither evidence nor testimonies from the tens of thousands of civilians pouring out of the former terror enclaves. The reckless claims are merely propaganda rumors put out by terrorist apologists and recycled by Western media. Perversely unreported in the Western media are the real stories of civilians having lived under horror imposed by the Western-backed so-called «rebels». Largely unreported by the Western media is the dominant mood of celebration and relief among civilians for having been liberated by the combined efforts of the Syrian army and its Russian, Iranian and Lebanese allies.

    Where are the «moderate rebels» now that the veil of secrecy has finally been lifted from eastern Aleppo? Where are the so-called neutral rescuers belonging to the White Helmets, who only a few weeks ago Western media were championing for a Nobel peace prize? They are all piling on to the same buses with the jihadi terrorists to be evacuated to nearby Idlib city as part of a surrender deal. In other words, the West has been all along backing terrorists, and now their terrorist proxies are seen by the whole world as being routed from Aleppo after four years of holding the eastern side of the city hostage.

    Liberated civilians tell of a reign of terror, how their family members were threatened by the Western-backed jihadis with execution if any of them dared to escape from the captive terror enclaves. Buildings recovered by the Syrian army have shown humanitarian aid, medicines and food stockpiled by the terrorists which they used to extort the civilian population. None of this is broadcast by the Western news media of course. Instead, they indulged in gory fantasies about the Syrian army committing summary executions and other atrocities against women and children. Stories, it should be noted, which have since petered out because there is no evidence to back them up.

    CNN’s self-important journalist Christiane Amanpour this week gave a platform to an alleged doctor, Hamza al-Khatib, who made unsubstantiated claims that children were being massacred in a basement by Syrian forces. Amanpour expressed horror as if the allegation was fact. The same «fact» was then reiterated by US ambassador to the UN Samantha Power. Turns out that Hamza al-Khatib is not even a doctor, according the Aleppo University records, where he once studied.

    CNN's alleged doctor Hamza Al Khatib with head-chopping jihadi friends

    In the past, he has been photographed in the company of the jihadi terrorists who were were responsible for the beheading of a 12-year-old Palestinian refugee boy Abdullah Issa near Aleppo. Reliable sources dispute that Hamza al-Khatib is even residing in east Aleppo where he claims to be. It is believed he is hiding out in neighboring Turkey, from where he gives interviews to gullible hacks like Amanpour. (Notice his smirk in the linked interview video when Amanpour naively asks how he remains safe in Aleppo.)

    Western lies and fake narratives about Syria were torn asunder this week. Sanctimonious Washington and European lackeys are exposed in their responsibility for fueling the war in Syria by giving cover to terrorist gangs as supposed «moderate rebels».

    Western governments, UN diplomats and media organizations are shown to be complicit in a state-sponsored terrorist conspiracy against the Syrian nation.

    Russia has played a vital and truly heroic role in saving Syria from a Western-imposed charnel house.

    And so, with the bitter taste of defeat over the historic battle for Aleppo, Washington and Europe are lashing out irrationally to further demonize Russia. Cyber war threats and economic aggression through sanctions are the Western response to bitter defeat

  • Russia is a 3rd World Country – 13 SECRET FACTS EXPOSED

    Since publishing exclusively on Zero Hedge our expose on Russia in order to ‘counterbalance’ the propaganda out there from the deep state, we’ve learned that there is a deep FACT VOID about this mysterious culture and place called RUSSIA and requires a series of articles.  This is a topic not being covered elsewhere!  And as we explain in our best-selling FX book – the world isn’t 

    Anyone who has ever been to Russia, that is – outside of a 5 star hotel in Moscow which isn’t any different than a 5 star hotel anywhere else – you don’t need to read an article like this to agree, that Russia is a 3rd world country, or debate about how big their missiles are.  Being a 3rd world country isn’t a bad thing.  And of all the third world, Russia is the fastest growing.  Remember, Russia was born in 1990, and is a capitalist market economy.  Russia has grown by huge leaps and bounds in the past 25 years.  But they lack the cultural background to make the switch to a fully market economy.  What does that mean – in other words?  There is a mentality that was programmed into their brains, during the Soviet Union, that still lives in Russia and with that mentality, having anything but the Soviet system is difficult or impossible.  The new generation of iphones and consumerism, albeit vulgar, will have better chances at adapting to a global market economy which is what Russia hopes to be.  The communist hardliners are dead and dying, and not being replaced.  In a system where everyone saved and money sometimes didn’t exist (such as during Perestroika, where workers were paid with tickets, not money – which could be bartered with neighbors for example if one family didn’t drink alcohol, vodka tickets could be traded for more meat, making Russians develop a natural talent for trading in dark pools).

    For those who will argue about ‘what is a third world country’ let’s use this article as a base guideline, Russia certainly meets the definitions here.

    If everything in and of the state is basically and profoundly corrupt (which naturally prompts the question if there is any political state in the world that is not corrupt and thus Third World?).

    If nothing really works but there is always ‘a way’.

    If you have to pay the authorities when entering or leaving the country. If you have to do both you’re actually in a Fourth World country!

    If the price of taxis are either totally negotiable or strictly determined by government regulations — amounting to the same.

    If there’s always a taxi and a willing driver to be found.

    If there are no ways of proving whether you’ve been drinking and/or speeding behind the wheel.

    If the government doesn’t care whether you’ve been drinking and/or speeding.

    If road patrols routinely consist of heavily armed military.

    If the paint on the bathroom walls have been allowed to stain the shower tiles as well. In this particular respect, Italy, Spain and France would easily qualify as ‘Third World countries’. The Greeks and the peoples of the Balkan countries, on the other hand, don’t do this. I guess they admire the Germans and have to some degree been influenced by them.

    If painting the doors also on the inside is considered an unnecessary expense.

    Before claiming yourself a self-professed “Russian Expert” you should either be 1) from Russia or 2) speak Russian language fluently, and have lived there for a number of years or 3) have extensively studied all things Russian.  If you are none of these, and want to have a quick education on the subject, here’s a few places to start:

    A History of Russia: New, Revised Edition – This is a MUST READ for any Russophile, student of Russia, or someone who wants to do business in Russia.  Probably, the reason this is one book written objectively that offers fresh perspectives is for the simple reason that it was written by a Russian intelligentsia in the United States, while at Yale University:

    Vernadsky took a novel approach to Russian history, presenting it as a continuous succession of empires, starting from the Scythian, Sarmatian, Hunnic, and Gothic; Vernadsky attempted to determine the laws of their expansion and collapse. His views emphasized the importance of Eurasian nomadic cultures for the cultural and economic progress of Russia, thus anticipating some of the ideas advanced by Lev Gumilev.

    Vernadsky became the leading American exponent of depicting Russia as much Asian and European, if not more so. He pointed out many strong cultural differences between Russia and Europe, and praised the success of Russian development along an independent path that revealed his own unique character. Vernadsky was a geographical determinist like his Yale colleague Ellsworth Huntington. They assumed that the characteristics of a land defined the character of the people and indeed of their government as well. For that reason Vernadsky was able to identify the roots of Russian culture in an ancient period long before the Slavic groups arrived. He thereby undercut the standard claim that modern Russia emerged from Kievan Rus. He emphasized the importance of the Mongol period (1238-1471), as the horde united the vast Eurasian plain under a single ruler. This gave tsarist Russia a strong centralized government as well as the deep distrust of Europe. Vernadsky was annoyed that Peter the Great tried to Westernize Russia, thereby distorting its natural character. He said Peter only succeeded in polarizing Russia into a Western oriented elite that stood in profound conflict with the Eurasian peasants. Indeed, Vernadsky argued that this polarization was one of the main weaknesses of the tsarist regime, making it incapable of dealing with the revolutionary movements of the early twentieth century. He celebrated the collapse of the European style parliamentary regime in the October Revolution of 1917 that brought the Bolsheviks to power. Vernadsky was not a liberal, nor was he a Communist sympathizer, but he did admire the Bolsheviks for rebuilding a strong Russia on non-European lines.[1]

    Unnatural Deaths in the U.S.S.R.: 1928-1954 – This is a historical chronicle about the ‘real’ deaths during this time period:

    Who was worse, Hitler or Stalin?  In the second half of the twentieth century, Americans were taught to see both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union as the greatest of evils. Hitler was worse, because his regime propagated the unprecedented horror of the Holocaust, the attempt to eradicate an entire people on racial grounds. Yet Stalin was also worse, because his regime killed far, far more people, tens of millions it was often claimed, in the endless wastes of the Gulag. For decades, and even today, this confidence about the difference between the two regimes—quality versus quantity—has set the ground rules for the politics of memory. Even historians of the Holocaust generally take for granted that Stalin killed more people than Hitler, thus placing themselves under greater pressure to stress the special character of the Holocaust, since this is what made the Nazi regime worse than the Stalinist one.

    This is just a good start.  If you really want to know any culture – the only way is to go there, live there, do business there.  But for those with a short attention span, that enjoy throwing objects at their TV when the reporters tell them something they don’t like, here we go:

    SECRET FACTS – RUSSIA IS A 3RD WORLD COUNTRY

    1. 80% or more of the Russian economy is unknown.  This is because it all happens ‘under the table’ to avoid taxes.  This will change probably, but as of now, workers are paid ‘white’ and ‘black’ salaries.  You can read about this here.  Auditors and government workers are bribed, wined and dined, when they inspect the books.  It’s a system everyone likes, that just ‘works’ – but it is impractical to make economic forecasts for such a system.  This system is also on the highest levels, as oligarchs wealth is often owned by dead people.  Of course, this practice isn’t heavily documented, because the whole idea of this under the table system is to not leave any paper trail!  Businesses even keep a full set of ‘white books’ and ‘real books’ like the mob used to do.  Yes – this is business in Russia!  

    2. Bankruptcy doesn’t exist.  There is no concept of bankruptcy.  There are even banks that offer really high interest loans (there are no usury laws) that will hire strong men to ‘scare’ you into paying, which might include breaking a leg, burning down your shed or in extreme cases, maybe holding a relative in their ‘office’ – yes this goes on and it’s not done by the MAFIA it’s done by the BANKS!  

    3. Russian healthcare system is ‘not to Western standards’ although it is ‘developing.’  25% of males die before they are 55 years old, mostly due to alcohol.

    4.  The primary currency used is physical rubles, that means PAPER.  When local people believe the Ruble will depreciate in value, they will exchange their paper Rubles for physical US Dollars or Euros and literally – keep them under the mattress.

    5. You have never seen roads in such poor conditions.  Around the Kremlin, and in rich areas of Moscow, roads are OK.  Outside of this area, harsh Russian winter wreacks havoc on roads that were never built to European or US standards, as they would be in Chicago or Boston.  See this road in Volgograd:

    This is why invading Russia has historically been impossible.  Of course, not all roads are like this – but many are.  

    6. Only in Russia meme – Just google “Only in Russia” or checkout this article.

    (Letters say “We watch you! – You must be 18+ to use this game)

    7. Russia is not a pleasant country to live in.  The weather in winter is worse than in Canada, Wisconsin, Maine, or your average US northern city.  Only Alaska is comparable to Russian climate.  

    8. Putin is not a dictator – he is just VERY popular.  But anyway, 3rd world countries usually have a “Putin” or “Castro” which is almost more than a President – a cultural leader.  Putin meets this criteria.  People keep photos of Putin on their walls.  They sell them, along with small busts of his head at every Metro station.  Russian people are simply crazy for Putin.  To understand this better here’s a WAPO article on the topic.

    9. In Russia there is not such a thing as ‘consumer rights’.  Grocery stores sell spoiled food.  There’s no ‘return policy.’  

    10. Corruption is just considered part of government life (see example here).  Finding a government official that was not corrupt, would be unusual.  For example, in a small town the government decides to ‘renovate’ streets and parks, so they assess a special tax to residents (normally, there is no real estate tax in Russia).  But 90% of the collected money goes into the pocket of the officials, and little is left to clean up the streets.

    11. The average pension in Russia is $148 USD.  The average Russian pension is paid IN CASH by Government official on a monthly basis, at the property of the pensioner.

    12.  24% of the entire population HAS A BANK ACCOUNT.  In the USA about 95% of eligible persons (excluding children, illegal immigrants) have bank accounts.

    13. If using the income disparity guage of what is third world, experts say in this report from CNBC that RUSSIA IS THE MOST UNEQUAL country in the WORLD – even MORE than the Arabs.  What happened after the collapse of USSR, the Russian Elite allowed the seizure or ‘privatization’ of state assets by individuals who became ‘Oligarchs’ which are the US equivalent of “Robber Barons” that literally inherited state owned assets because they were really, really, really, really, really, really lucky.  But the practical fact is that an Oligarch class is needed for any Capitalist society to flourish.

    Russia has grown by huge amounts.  They have produced some of the world’s leading thinkers, scientists, artists, writers, composers, and other talent.  Now, the global Russian oligarch class challenges mainstream Western business.  But keep it all in perspective, Russia has a long way to go.  In the meantime, don’t worry about Russian hackers breaking into your home office.  They have problems of their own to solve.

    Don’t believe us – read some of these books and articles:

    Wall Street and the Bolshevik Revolution.  

    Armand Hammer: The Untold Story

    A People’s History of the United States

    Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich

    To learn how the global financial system works, checkout Fortress Capital Trading Academy – or checkout SPLITTING PENNIES FOR ONLY $6.11

  • Harvard Professor Admits His Efforts To Turn Electoral College Against Trump Have Failed Miserably

    A few days ago we wrote about the Harvard Professor, Larry Lessig, who was offering free legal services to any Republican elector willing to consider switching their vote from Trump to any other candidate when the electoral college meets on December 19th (see “Harvard Professor Says He’s Rallied Nearly Enough GOP Electors To Block Trump“).    At the time, Lessig said he was in active discussions with 20 electors, all of whom he claimed had vowed to switch their votes.

    That said, in an interview to be aired tomorrow on “Aaron Klein Investigative Radio,” the disaffected, leftist, sore loser admits that his efforts to disrupt the 2016 presidential election have been a colossal failure and will likely result in only a handful of electors switching their votes.  Per Breitbart:

    “But I think that we are not going to see more than a handful who actually vote against Donald Trump unless that number climbs above 40. Because I think there are many people who think it is just not worth it given especially the pretty explicit threats that have been made against the electors who exercise their constitutional prerogative.”

    Lessig

     

    Of course, with Trump earning 306 electoral college votes on November 8th, Lessig needed to pool a group of at least 37 electors to push the election to Congress.  But with Congress controlled by Republicans, Klein asked the “triggered” Lessig whether his efforts were an exercise in futility as Trump would almost certainly be elected anyway.  Apparently anything that would keep hope alive for just a little longer was worth the effort to Lessig who said “in the House there are a lot of things that could happen.”

    “You know, in the House there are a lot of things that could happen. You know, people could judge the fact that he was the first president to be denied the nomination of the Electoral College for reasons like this. There was a vice president in 1836 who was denied. But he would be the first president as a kind of fatal blow. And in that House, the Republicans might consider, ‘Well, is there another candidate?’ It would have to be among the top three vote-getters of the Electoral College. But is there another candidate who we should nominate instead? And that’s why people have been talking about alternatives like [Republican Ohio Gov. John] Kasich. Or it could be anybody who gets the votes of the Electoral College that are in the top three. And such a move might actually for the nation be incredibly important to get beyond the horrendous political partisan divide that we now find ourselves in.  That might be a good reason for them to act like that.”

    For once, Hillary actually said it best: “some people are sore losers…”

  • Former Fed Advisor: State Pensions Time Bomb Spells Disaster For The US

    Underfunded government pensions to the tune of $1.3 trillion, with a gap that just can’t be filled, is the ticking time bomb facing the US economy which faces dramatic cuts in public services – and potentially riots reminiscent of Athens six years ago – according to former Federal Reserve advisor, and President of Money Strong, Danielle DiMartino Booth.

    As she picks apart the danger signs with the US on the precipice of recession, it’s the impending pensions crisis that keeps her awake at night, sharing the gloomy sentiment laid out in an extensive March 2016 Citi report titled “The coming pensions crisis.”

    With few people taking part in what little recovery the US has had, and given how stretched pensions are, checks are going to have to be written from Washington sooner than you think, DiMartino Booth told Real Vision TV in an interview. “The Baby Boomers are no longer an actuarial theory,” she said. “They’re a reality. The checks are being written.”


    A Bulldozer Couldn’t Fill the State Pensions Gap

    The $1.3 trillion pensions deficit just takes into account state and municipal obligations, and with promised returns of 8% and funds compounding at 3% for decades it will take nothing short of an economic miracle to recover.  “The average state pension in the last fiscal year returned something south of 1%. You cannot fill that gap with a bulldozer, impossible,” DiMartino Booth said. “Anyone who knows their compounding tables knows you don’t make that up. You don’t get that back unless you get some miracle.”

    The last time we saw significant market weakness, the baby boomers pretty much accepted that they would be retiring at 70 instead of 65, she added. “Well, guess what? They’re turning 71. And the physiological decision to stay in the workforce won’t work for much longer. And that means that these pensions are going to come under tremendous amounts of pressure.

    “And the idea that we can escape what’s to come, given demographically what we’re staring at is naive at best. And it’s reckless at worst,” DiMartino Booth said. “And when you throw private equity and all of the dry powder that they have — that they’re sitting on — still waiting to deploy on pensions’ behalf, at really egregious valuations, yeah, it’s hard to sleep at night.”

    Pension Fund Underfunding is Ground Zero

    The interview with Real Vision was held in Dallas, which DiMartino Booth said is Ground Zero for the pensions crisis, where returns for the $2.27 billion Police and Fire Pension System have suffered due to risky investments in real estate made over a decade ago. Huge withdrawals are now taking place, amid concerns over the future viability of the pension scheme, which commentators say could be flat broke in a little over ten years.

    “We’re seeing this surge of people trying to retire early and take the money. Because they see it’s not going to be there. And if that dynamic and that belief spreads– forget all the other problems,” DiMartino Booth said. “The pension fund — underfunding is Ground Zero.”

    The gravity of the situation with the lack of returns is magnified by the fact that the underperformance has been going on for between ten and 15 years. Calpers, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System is a case in point, amid reports that it returned just 0.6% last year compared with its long term target of 7.5%. With the legal language tightly written on pensions like this across the country, such that states and municipalities won’t be able to break free of their obligations, DiMartino Booth thinks the endgame will evoke memories of the Winter of Discontent in London in 1979 and more recently the riots in Athens as key public services are cut.

    Angry Country, Angry World – The Wealth Effect is Dead

    “This is where the smile comes off my face. We are an angry country. We’re an angry world. The wealth effect is dead. The inequality divide is unlike anything we’ve seen since the years that preceded the Great Depression,” she told Real Vision TV. “Where’s the money going to come from? And the answer is, for now, they cut services. I’ve just written about the Winter of Discontent and the rubbish piled up in central London streets in 1979, as Thatcher was coming in. I worry about the ambulance not getting there in time. I worry about firefighters being cut to the bone and policemen.”

    The seriousness of the issue might not have hit home yet in Denver, where the state budget for tulips had to be cut recently to top up the pension fund, she said, but what happens when you are not talking about flowers anymore and when you are talking about a very populous state like Illinois?

    “If the actuaries are going to force the checks to be written and reduce the rate of returned assumptions to anything remotely related to reality, then we won’t be laughing anymore looking in the rear view mirror at the riots in the streets of Athens a few years back,” DiMartino Booth warned.

    Visit Real Vision TV to watch this exclusive full interview, free to all. Real Vision TV is a video-on-demand channel for finance, offering over 500 videos from 200 of the world’s sharpest investment minds. Think of it as what CNBC could have been if it actually focused on quality of content.

  • Toward A New World Order, Part III

    Submitted by Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk via Bawerk.net,

    A new world order is coming of age and the transition is painful to accept for a Western middle class with a deep-seated sense of entitlement.

    We showed how the West feels threatened globally in Toward a New World Order and followed up explaining how this translate into domestic politics in Toward a New World Order Part II. We will now continue this series by showing how gross economic mismanagement have created the new political class that we described in part two.

    As we stated back then, a large and increasing part of the electorate, swayed by neither the political correct socialist/feminist/cultural relativist dogma presented by the left, nor the lip service paid to free markets by a corrupted right, have taken hold in western democracies. They form a directionless blob of potential voters which until recently have drifted aimlessly along the political spectrum. Now they have made up their mind and it is proving pundits clueless as to what is going on. The “worker” making millions on Wall Street or by helping Google refine their search engine is not the same “worker” we find in flyover America. The young billionaire making apps to entertain confused millennials and snowflakes is not the same capitalist as the shale oil investor we might encounter in North Dakota. Political classes traditionally defined are useless as a tool to understand the world today. What is important to note though is that a growing minority of people with little to lose from the status quo is about to, or in many places have already become a small majority.

    When people have nothing to lose and foresee a future of continued hardship they become desperate and are willing to change for the sake of change itself. When the current leadership provide nothing but more of the same hopelessness, they will move politically toward to candidates with views counter to that held by the establishment.

    Before we move on, let us examine the upcoming election in France to show what we mean. In the traditional way of viewing national politics in France, it will be impossible for Le Pen and her Front National to win. Why? Because the left will hold their nose and vote for right-wing Republican Fillon in the second round to strategically avoid Le Pen. While some undoubtedly will follow the traditional recipe of left-right politics, it is far from certain that enough will do so to avoid a Le Pen victory. On the contrary, as we showed in part II, this line of thinking is outdated and a better representation is shown in the chart below.

    true-political-axis-2

    Using our methodology, we come up with a far more likely scenario on how the French voters will vote come May. With the center right representing everything the middle class loath, they will not migrate from the center-left to help Fillon to victory. Le Pen’s vote base is not disillusioned UMP voters, but blue-collar workers that used to support the socialists and militant French unions. We do not draw this conclusion from some unique insight into French politics, but from observing a tendency across the whole of western society as a larger and larger share of the population have lost hope for the future. One of the most primal driving forces in humans is the belief in a brighter future. Dirt poor in Africa or pampered by the European welfare state, it does not matter. What matters for the positive development of the human spirit is an expectation that next year will be better than the current one. If that belief is taken from them, they will most certainly force real change on the system as they feel there is little to lose. 

    how-le-pen-will-win

    So what went wrong? There are many answers to this question and we have tried to address several on them on these pages earlier, such as excessive debt levels, monetary policy gone awry and demographics. We would also add to the list that we have seen a general tendency toward destructive policies as a result from people losing purpose in life; in this regard, it is no coincidence that environmentalism appeared as a new form of religion on the “godless” continent.

    In That 70s Show (part I, II, III and IV) we spelled out how things changed after Nixon took the US dollar off gold and gave the Americans the ability to exchange nothing for something. Obviously, this created an irresistible incentive to consume more than the Americans could produce, which in turn artificially changed relative prices. A new productive structure emerged because of the new set of prices, but unless the dollar issuance continued, and even accelerateed, it would not be possible to sustain the ensuing capital allocation.

    In other words, this road have taken us all down a very unpleasant path as every time the central bank, and/or the commercial banking system (including global dollar claims dubbed Eurodollars) is forced to retrench a recession must necessarily set in as the nothing-for-something-transaction have to be undone. However, as long as the global community accept dollar claims as money good the banking system can always gear up in time of crisis to avert the worst of inbuilt consequences stemming from past folly.

    What made 2008/09 so special is the fact that the global dollar community had in fact reached peak debt. In other words, further dollar claims were no longer considered money good and the global banking system could no longer reflate the balance sheet, as this would have been unacceptable to their counterparties. A different way of looking at this is through the capital structure. At peak debt the current structure can no longer be funded as the pool of real savings is gradually depleted by the incessant something-for-nothing-transactions. We, as participants in a global economy, have essentially been consuming our seed corn.

    In the 1970s the US economy employed about 50 per cent of its workforce in private sector service occupations. However, as the nothing-for-something system got under way the share of service sector employment rose almost constantly to reach more than 70 per cent today. This transformation can be characterized as a move away from tradable sector toward non-tradable, and was inevitable since the US manufacturing sector essentially had to compete against foreign products that cost the American system nothing to procure.

    Service sector jobs have, or at least used to have, less scope for productivity improvements and hence real wage increases. Furthermore, goods producing sectors were clearly affected as they could no longer compete successfully against foreign producers. As a consequence, investments fell, thus dragging down productivity even more. Wages in tradable sectors naturally stagnated as a result. Amazingly, the real wage level in the 1970s for middle class workers is the same as today (using the BLS headline CPI index as deflator). Service sector wages must follow that of the goods producing sector and stagnated too.

    service-sector-employment-vs-wages

    Why did this not create a political movement toward National Socialism decades ago? Simply because artificial dollar claims were still considered money good worldwide. An increasingly creative financial system, in no doubt cheered on by corrupt politicians, thus took the best and brightest and told them to create ever more dollar liabilities to satisfy world demand. The masses could thus leverage their balance sheet with ease as banks needed collateral to sell abroad. Until 2008 that is. From that point on it all came crashing down as dollar claims were suddenly deemed unsafe. Banks could no longer expand their balance sheet at will and therefore the households and business couldn’t either.

    The real pain from a four-decade long boom was suddenly felt as the system moved away from its exponentially rising growth trend toward one allowed by a broken Eurodollar system. (Some of the charts below came to be with great inspiration by the excellent work of Alhambra Investment Partner economists Jeffery Snider).

    ip-eurdollar-break

    corp-cash-flow-ed-break

    real-final-sales-ed-break

    missing-workers-ed-break

    retail-sales-ed-break

    We could go on, but you get the picture. The recession of 2008 triggered a structural change in the global economy, and we are confident that the mechanism behind it is the breakdown of the Eurodollar system that came about at peak debt.

    Before we end, we would like to highlight one more thing. As the American worker had to compete with zero cost foreign competitors, manufacturing businesses in the US were forced to either move abroad, shut down or invest in automation. This pressured workers even more and help explain why industrial output continued to rise even though the number of employees in the sector fell in successive waves. It is also noteworthy that this positive trend ended with the collapse of the Eurodollar.

    ip-automation-not-trade

    Bottom line, the new world order that made itself felt in 2016 will be even more pronounced in 2017 with elections in the Netherlands (Geert Wilders could end up kingmaker or even prime minister), France (we predict a Le Pen victory) and Germany (where AfD will surprise everyone).

    Next time we will look at the investment implications from all this.

  • Paul Krugman Loses It: Hints At Trump 9/11-Style Attack False Flag

    Some establishment types took the election of Donald Trump – and the implicit rejection of their omnipotence – a lot harder than others. Perhaps the arch-Keynesian himself, New York Times' Paul Krugman, is the best example, lashing out this morning at the ignorance of Trump voters once again (well they must be ignorant, right?) along with his co-conspirators Noah Smith and Brad DeLong, exclaiming:

    "A fact-constrained candidate wouldn’t have been able to promise such people what they want; Trump, of course, had no problem."

    And falling back to playing the race card also…

    "California is an affluent state, a heavy net contributor to the federal budget; it went 2-1 Clinton. West Virginia is poor and a huge net recipient of federal aid; it went 2 1/2-1 Trump.

     

    I don’t think any kind of economic analysis can explain this. It has to be about culture and, as always, race."

    But, it was a tweet that the great "debt doesn't matter" guru blurted out this morning that has many questioning his sanity (or paranoia)…

    We are shocked that Twitter followers have not demanded Krugman be banned, blocked, and shamed for such conspiracy theory hate-speak.

    Reading between the lines of the so-called economist's comment, he appears to be suggesting that president-elect Donald Trump has an "incentive" to stage a 9/11-style terrorist attack in order to legitimize his presidency ("like Bush did"?)

    Hell, we nearly had a seizure upon reading this, though not of course as bad a Kurt Eichenwald's…

    *  *  *

    Now, does Krugman's tweet seem like real news worthy of the great New York Times' columnist or "fake news"? Is this the kind of suggestive propaganda that The CIA is hoping maintains a groundswell of "well, if he is not hitler… he must be worse" thoughts among those so easily led? Still, coming from a man who has prognosticated alien invasions as a global economic growth engine, we are not sure if he is mental situation is improving or deteriorating.

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