Today’s News 11th November 2016

  • "He Won Because The Elites Want Him There, The Global Economy Will Collapse"

    Though Trump’s election was a great victory/rebuke over the dictates and controls of the financial oligarchy that own and run this nation, SHTFPlan.com's Mac Salvo warns, the American people are not out of the woods yet.

    Quietly but constantly in the background of the entire Obama Administration, the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program that combined unlimited QE with zero percent interest rates has absolutely wrecked this country and its economic stability.

     

    The system as we know it cannot be sustained. Yellen and co. have been simply waiting for the right time to let the other shoe drop – namely, after it could influence the election even further in the direction of Trump’s populist uprising. Unfortunately, he will now be largely blamed for the great destruction that is scheduled to fall upon this nation. In fact, that is the very reason that Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com attributed to Trump’s victory when he predicted his election many months ago.

     

    Something big is coming… prepare yourselves accordingly.

    How Alt-Market Predicted Trump’s Win Months in Advance: “He won because the elites WANT HIM THERE, the global economy WILL collapse”

    Authored by Melissa Dykes via The Daily Sheeple,

    While many of us in the alternative media and especially those researchers of Clinton crimes are breathing a big fat sigh of relief that anybody but Hillary is headed to the White House in 2017, Brandon Smith of Alt Market is warning us all not to get too comfortable… and with history on his side here, we should listen to him.

    Despite what looked like a rigged, fraudulent Hillary win orchestrated from the top down with the entire establishment machine behind her, Trump won the election. In an election year that would have otherwise seen record low voter turnout, the specter of Hillary that led to Trump’s victory has now given the people a reason to believe their vote actually matters again, an extra boon to further relegitimize the corrupt system running things in this country.

    But Smith reminds us that if Trump is walking into the Oval Office in January, it is only because the elites decided to put him there in advance — and for a reason.

    First it should be noted that Smith accurately predicted that Brexit would pass, even when the majority of the alt media was reporting that there was no way it possibly could. Was it another victory for the people?

    No, it was predetermined well in advance:

    “The mainstream media has been consistently comparing Trump supporters to Brexit supporters, and Trump himself has hitched his political wagon to the Brexit. This fits perfectly with the globalist narrative that populists and conservatives are killing the global economy and placing everyone at risk.

    Then he accurately predicted a Trump win… but not because voting actually matters:

    “U.S. elections are indeed controlled, and have been for decades, primarily through the false left/right paradigm.  However, as I have been pointing out since I correctly predicted the success of the Brexit referendum, I don’t think that Clinton is the choice of the elites.”

     

    “To be clear, my position is that Trump is slated to take the White House and that this is by design. This has been my position since before Trump won the Republican Primaries, it was my position when the election cycle began, it has never changed, nor have my views on the reasons for this outcome ever changed…”

    Smith says regardless of whether or not Trump is a legitimate anti-establishment candidate, his win means the global economic collapse the system has been holding off on will finally come to pass — as planned — under Trump’s watch:

    “…Even if Trump is a legitimate anti-establishment conservative, his entry into the Oval Office will seal the deal on the economic collapse, and will serve the globalists well.  The international banks need only pull the plug on any remaining life support to the existing market system and allow it to fully implode, all while blaming Trump and his conservative supporters…”

    He will be the perfect scapegoat for something the alternative media have known is coming for a long, long time.

    Now Smith is spelling it out:

    The bottom line is, Trump is on the way to the White House because the elites WANT HIM THERE.  Now, many liberty proponents, currently in a state of elation, will either ignore or dismiss the primary reason why I was able to predict the Brexit and a Trump win.  These will probably be some of the same people that were arguing with me only weeks ago that the elites would NEVER allow Trump in office.

     

    So, to clarify:

     

    Trump may or may not be aware that he and his conservative followers have been positioned into a a trap.  We will have to wait and see how he behaves in office (and he WILL be in office, despite the claims of some that the elites will try to “stop him” before January).  My primary point is THAT IT DOES NOT MATTER, at least not at this stage.  The elites will initiate a final collapse of the global economy under Trump’s watch (this will probably escalate over the course of the next six months), and they WILL blame him and conservatives in general.  This IS going to happen.  The elites play the long game, and so must we.

    And there you have it.

    It’s not much of a secret that the economy is being artificially propped up. The Fed’s QE stimulus programs are no longer working. We know it can’t remain this way forever.

    And even though everyone just feels so much relief that we’ve all been spared the nightmare of Hillary Clinton climbing into yet another seat of even more power, we can’t just assume we’re all going to skip off into happy magical fairy sprinkle land unscathed.

    Sure, the people have spoken, but it’s only the illusion of power that we’re seeing play out now. The Powers That Shouldn’t Be running this insanity circus always have a plan… how else have they gotten away with controlling the globe for at least the past century?

    After saying “I told ya so,” Smith issued a final warning that we shouldn’t be so naive:

    While millions of Americans are celebrating Trump’s win today, I will remain even more vigilant.  The party is just getting started, folks.  Don’t get too comfortable.

    Sadly, we can’t ignore decades of New World Order history here just because we’re relieved a psychopath like Hillary lost the election. Smith is right. We’d all do well to listen to him and get prepared for what’s coming.

    2017 is going to be a bumpy ride.

  • More Troubling Signs For NYC Real Estate As Rent Concessions Soar

    The October 2016 Douglas Elliman Real Estate Guide for Manhattan reveals some fairly startling hints about the “health” of NYC real estate.  For months we’ve been writing about the soaring capacity of luxury apartment buildings in New York City and it looks as though that capacity influx is starting to take a toll as the percentage of rental inventory offering landlord concessions soared to 23.9% in October, more than double the 10.4% recorded last October.

    The market continues to be softest at the top.  Luxury median sales price declined 10.9% to $7,792 over the same period and the largest decline in more than 4 years.  The market share for landlord concessions more than doubled to 23.9% from the same period last year to the highest share in 6 years this metric has been tracked.  As a result, net effective median rent fell 1% to $3,322 from the same period last year.  Days on market, the number of days from the original list date to the lease date, expanded by 6 days to an average of 46 days.  Listing discount, the percentage from the original list price to the rental price, rose to 3.1% rom 2.3% in the same month a year ago.

    The percent of rental inventory granting landlord concessions has surged in recent months as building owners attempt to fill new apartment capacity.  As Bloomberg points out, with several buildings still under construction, the surge in new high-end capacity shows no signs of abating at any point in the new future.

    Lease-signing sweeteners, such as a month of free rent or payment of broker fees, were offered on 24 percent of new rental agreements in October, up from 10 percent a year earlier, according to a report Thursday by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. It was the biggest share for any month since the firms began tracking the data six years ago. Landlords also agreed to cut an average of 3.1 percent from their asking rents in order to reach a deal.

     

    Property owners in Manhattan are working harder to lure tenants who now have the ability to bargain-shop amid a surge of high-end apartment construction that shows no signs of abating. The final months of the year are considered to be the slowest time for apartment leasing in New York City, adding to the urgency for landlords, said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel.

     

    “Concessions are one way to keep the vacancy rate in check and keep the buildings as full as possible,” Miller said in an interview. “It’s a baseline metric we’re going to be dealing with for the next several years, at least.”

    NYC Rents

     

    Meanwhile, it’s not just new capacity that’s putting pressure on rental prices and concessions.  As the following chart highlights, new leases signed in recent months have also been falling with October new leases down 3.9% YoY and nearly 23% sequentially. 

    NYC Rents

     

    Rental days on the market also increased by 15% YoY to 46 days while listing discounts increased 80 bps to 3.1% of the original listing price.

    NYC Rents

     

    Finally, listing inventory in Manhattan is up nearly 23% YoY while Jonathan Miller, President of New York City appraiser Miller Samuel, warned “This is probably not a temporary blip.”

    “There must be great concern because of how much competition has been added to the market over the last couple of years,” Miller said. “This is probably not a temporary blip.”

     

    For Manhattan apartments, the median rent rose 0.3 percent from a year earlier to $3,400 a month, Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman said. But when factoring in the value of concessions, the median actually declined by 1 percent.

     

    “Incentives remain the preferred alternative for owners to keep face rents high while creating a sense of value in the marketplace,” Gary Malin, president of brokerage Citi Habitats, said in a separate report on the rental market Thursday.

     

    The fancier and more costly the apartment, the more landlords had to offer enticements. In Manhattan buildings with doormen, 31 percent of new leases last month came with incentives, Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman said. In buildings without lobby attendants, sweeteners were given on 17 percent of new agreements.

    NYC Rents

     

    With trends like this, Jimmy McMillan may be able to retire soon.

    Rent

  • Trump Voter Beaten By Black Mob: "You Voted Trump. You Gonna Pay For That Sh*t"

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson, originally posted at InfoWars.com,

    Shocking video out of Chicago shows a mob of young black men viciously beating an older white man because he voted for Donald Trump, dragging him through the streets as he hangs out of the back of his car.

    The clip shows the thugs repeatedly screaming, “you voted Donald Trump” as they assault the victim from every angle while others steal his belongings.

    “You voted Trump,” the mob screams, “You gonna pay for that sh*t.”

    Another woman shouts “beat his ass,” while another man is heard laughing before remarking, “Don’t vote Trump.”

    A second video of the incident which is dubbed with the “F**k Donald Trump” song, a phrase now being chanted by “protesters” across the country, shows one of the attackers driving away in the man’s vehicle while his hand is still stuck in the window as the car drags him down the street.

    “The scene is frankly reminiscent of a lynching,” remarks Chris Menahan.

    It is not even clear if the victim was a Trump supporter. Presumably, the mob used that as an excuse to beat and rob him.

    YouTube quickly deleted the video, but it has been mirrored on numerous different websites.

    If the roles had been reversed, and Trump supporters had been caught on tape viciously beating a black Hillary voter, this would be a national news story right now.

    As it is, you won’t see this on CNN any time soon.

    Finally, here is SHFPlan.com's Mac Slavo with his typically eloquent perspective on this deplorable behavior

    Violence and retribution for the election of Trump has proven to be the result of a media-driven attack on his character. For months now, the pundits and columnists have done nothing but tell the population that Trump supporters are racists, etc. and now racially-motivated beatings are taking place in the street without any other pretext or provocation.

     

    Are they proud of themselves yet? And how far will this violence spread?

     

    read more here…

  • Grubhub CEO Faces Backlash After Telling Trump-Supporting Employees "You Have No Place Here"

    Many faux-liberal tech firm CEOs have responded to the election of Donald Trump in the same "stunned" memos to staff reassuring them "our firm is a safe space" with some even promising to fund a so-called CaliExit secession from the Union. However, as Fox News reports, GrubHub CEO Matt Maloney has – to some who have begun to boycott the food-delivery app – gone too far by implying in a company-wide email that Trump-supporting staff are not welcome and should resign.

    “If you do not agree with this statement then please reply to this email with your resignation because you have no place here,” wrote Matt Maloney, Co-Founder of Grubhub. “We do not tolerate hateful attitudes on our team."

    Maloney, a Hillary Clinton supporter, sent the email Wednesday afternoon with the subject line, “So…that happened…what’s next?”

     

    He made it clear in the email statement that he is personally stunned and deeply concerned with the results of Tuesday’s election.

    “I absolutely reject the nationalist, anti-immigrant and hateful politics of Donald Trump and will work to shield our community from this movement as best as I can,” Maloney wrote about Trump’s supporters. 

     

    “I want to reaffirm to anyone on our team that is scared or feels personally exposed, that I and everyone else here at Grubhub will fight for your dignity and your right to make a better life for yourself and your family here in the United States.”

     

    The CEO made it clear he’s particularly concerned Trump’s victory will empower others in his workplace to act out against marginalized groups.

     

    “While demeaning, insulting, and ridiculing minorities, immigrants, and the physically/mentally disabled worked for Mr. Trump, I want to be clear that this behavior — and these views — have no place at Grubhub,” Maloney explained.

    Ironically, the CEO said that he deeply respects the right of people to vote for whoever they decide, but that he simply wanted to “reassure our employees that our company will actively support diversity and inclusion — regardless of national politics."

    As Fox concludes, this letter is noteworthy because it underscores the fine-line between the intersection of politics and business, especially given the divisive presidential campaign of the past year and a half.

    However, the backlash had already begun and, in a tweet that was later deleted, Maloney added: "To be clear, GrubHub does not tolerate hate and we are proud of all our employees – even those who voted for Trump."

    As The Chicago Tribune reports, in a statement posted by Grubhub later Thursday evening, Maloney said his comments had been misconstrued.

    "I want to clarify that I did not ask for anyone to resign if they voted for Trump," the statement said. "I would never make such a demand."

    By Thursday afternoon, Twitter users were calling others to #boycottgrubhub.

  • Calexit – California Secession Petition Gaining Strength After Trump Win

    A group of secessionists in California are taking advantage of post-election discontent and re-introducing their petition to make California its own country.  Apparently, the liberal elites of California aren’t big fans of Donald Trump…who knew? 

    According to the Sacramento Bee, support for the “The 2019 #Calexit Independence Referendum” is gaining some momentum after devastated Hillary supporters received their bad news on Tuesday night.

    About 11,000 people liked the Facebook page for the “Yes California Independence Campaign” as of Tuesday night. By midday Wednesday, it had grown to nearly 17,000 likes and counting.

     

    “Obviously it was a huge boost for the movement because Californians hate Donald Trump,” said Marcus Ruiz Evans, vice president of the group.

     

    The hashtag #Calexit was already trending on Twitter and Facebook on Wednesday. Posts ranged from Shervin Pishevar, a Bay Area venture capitalist and tech entrepreneur, calling for the state to secede, to conservatives welcoming a California-less nation.

     

    Ruiz Evans said Yes California intends to launch an initiative that asks Californians whether they believe the state should remain part of the United States or break away on its own. Similar to the Citizens United ballot measure voters approved Tuesday, it would begin as an advisory proposal to kick-start an arduous process.

     

    The results will serve as a rallying cry and give the campaign credibility with lawmakers, he said. If passed, it would call for a special election and official vote on whether California should become its own country. Ultimately, Congress and the states would likely have to ratify an amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

     

    “The reason that we’re here today is we wanted to point out to everybody in California that the American system is broken. It’s failing. It’s sinking,” he said. “You as a Californian have a choice to make: Do you go down with that ship out of tradition or sail on your own?”

    Apparently the group’s leadership is convinced that California’s economic problems are the direct result of their statehood as opposed to the failed liberal agenda of their  elected officials.  The group’s website lays out a myriad of reasons for secession but summarizes that “the United States of America represents so many things that conflict with Californian values.”

    In our view, the United States of America represents so many things that conflict with Californian values, and our continued statehood means California will continue subsidizing the other states to our own detriment, and to the detriment of our children.

     

    Although charity is part of our culture, when you consider that California’s infrastructure is falling apart, our public schools are ranked among the worst in the entire country, we have the highest number of homeless persons living without shelter and other basic necessities, poverty rates remain high, income inequality continues to expand, and we must often borrow money from the future to provide services for today, now is not the time for charity.

     

    However, this independence referendum is about more than California subsidizing other states of this country. It is about the right to self-determination and the concept of voluntary association, both of which are supported by constitutional and international law.

     

    It is about California taking its place in the world, standing as an equal among nations. We believe in two fundamental truths: (1) California exerts a positive influence on the rest of the world, and (2) California could do more good as an independent country than it is able to do as a just a U.S. state.

     

    In 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the international community with their “Brexit” vote. Our “Calexit” referendum is about California joining the international community. You have a big decision to make.

    While this will unfortunately never come to a fruition, we suspect after Tuesday’s election results that, outside of a couple of major metro areas in the Northeast, a lot of people in this country would be quiet happy to be rid of their leftist west coast state.

  • China 'Devalues' Yuan To Weakest Since Breaking The Peg In 2010

    With offshore Yuan tumbling in recent days – echoing the collapse in US Treasury bond prices – the spread to the onshore fix appears to have forced the PBOC’s hand. With a 200 pip cut in the CNY fix tonight, China has all but erased any strength in the Renminbi against the USD since it broke the peg (“enabled more flexibility”) in June 2010.

    • CHINA SETS YUAN FIXING AT 6.8115 VS 6.7885 DAY EARLIER

     

    Given the wakness in the Reniminbi basket, one could argue that the Yuan could be sold against the USD considerably more to catch down to the pressure that other major basket currencies have been under…

     

    With US Treasury market closed tomorrow, one wonders where China’s wrath will fall…

  • Canadian Parliament Condemns Free Speech

    Submitted by Judith Bergmann via The Gatestone Institute,

    • "Now that Islamophobia has been condemned, this is not the end, but rather the beginning." — Samer Majzoub, president of the Canadian Muslim Forum. Majzoub is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood.
    • What exactly are they condemning? Criticism of Islam? Criticism of Muslims? Debating Mohammed? Depicting Mohammed? Discussing whether ISIS is a true manifestation of Islam? Is any Canadian who now writes critically of Islam or disagrees with the petitioners that ISIS "does not reflect in any way the values or the teachings of the religion of Islam" now to be considered an "Islamophobe"?
    • The question, naturally, is whether Canada's motion will be replicated in other parliaments in the West. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) is particularly active in Europe, having opened a Permanent Observer Mission to the European Union in 2013.
    • In what parallel universe can the efforts of the OIC to stifle free speech possibly be considered advancement of freedom of speech and religion?
    • As the OIC steps up its media campaign and efforts in Europe, European parliaments are likely to experience initiatives like the petition in Canada. The European Union, for one, looks as if it would be to happy facilitate such a motion.

    On October 26, Canada's parliament unanimously passed an anti-Islamophobia motion, which was the result of a petition initiated by Samer Majzoub, president of the Canadian Muslim Forum. The petition garnered almost 70,000 signatures.

    According to the text of the petition,

    "Recently an infinitesimally small number of extremist individuals have conducted terrorist activities while claiming to speak for the religion of Islam. Their actions have been used as a pretext for a notable rise of anti-Muslim sentiments in Canada; and these violent individuals do not reflect in any way the values or the teachings of the religion of Islam. In fact, they misrepresent the religion. We categorically reject all their activities. They in no way represent the religion, the beliefs and the desire of Muslims to co-exist in peace with all peoples of the world. We, the undersigned, Citizens and residents of Canada, call upon the House of Commons to join us in recognizing that extremist individuals do not represent the religion of Islam, and in condemning all forms of Islamophobia".

    The Parliament of Canada, in Ottawa. (Image source: Saffron Blaze/Wikimedia Commons)

    While a motion will have no legal effect unless it is passed as a bill, the symbolic effect of the Canadian parliament unanimously condemning "all forms of Islamophobia," without making the slightest attempt at defining what is meant by "Islamophobia," can only be described, at best, as alarming.

    What exactly are they condemning? Criticism of Islam? Criticism of Muslims? Debating Mohammed? Depicting Mohammed? Discussing whether ISIS is a true manifestation of Islam? Is any Canadian who now writes critically of Islam or disagrees with the petitioners that ISIS "does not reflect in any way the values or the teachings of the religion of Islam" now to be considered an "Islamophobe"?

    No one knows, and it is doubtful whether the members of the Canadian parliament know what it means themselves. It would seem, however, that the initiator of the petition, Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Samer Majzoub, knows. This is what he had to say in an interview with the Canadian Muslim Forum after the motion passed:

    "Now that Islamophobia has been condemned, this is not the end, but rather the beginning … We need to continue working politically and socially and with the press. They used to doubt the existence of Islamophobia, but now we do not have to worry about that; all blocs and political figures, represented by Canada's supreme legislative authority, have spoken of that existence. In the offing, we need to get policy makers to do something, especially when it comes to the Liberals, who have shown distinct openness regarding Muslims and all ethnicities… All of us must work hard to maintain our peaceful, social and humanitarian struggle so that condemnation is followed by comprehensive policies."

    Whereas the Canadian parliamentarians seem entirely unaware of what Muslim organizations have in store for them in terms of "comprehensive policies", it is clear that to the parliamentarians, the motion constitutes "virtue-signaling" at its worst. Whereas the parliamentarians might now feel good about themselves, does their vote mean that those Canadians who dare to criticize Islam and disagree vehemently with the premises of the motion are likely to be considered (even more) beyond the pale of civilized society? Does it mean that only one view is correct and that any view that differs from it will now be, by default, incorrect — if not criminal?

    It will almost certainly deter people from speaking up, for fear that they will be labeled "racists" or "Islamophobes" by arbitrarily creating a threatening atmosphere of political correctness, where those who do not adhere to the groupthink are shamed and ostracized. Such strangulation of opinion also cannot be beneficial to any country's national security. How can anyone warn the authorities about virtually anything if they have to worry first that their warning might be considered "Islamophobic"?

    There were, of course, no parallel motions in Canada's parliament to condemn "Christianophobia" or "Judeophobia," the latter being much more prevalent than "Islamophobia." In fact, according to statistics, Jewish Canadians are more than 10 times as likely to be the victim of a hate crime than Muslim Canadians.

    It was exactly this kind of toxic, politically correct atmosphere in the United States that enabled Major Nidal Malik Hasan, an Army psychiatrist, to gun down 13 people and to wound 29 others in the Fort Hood massacre in 2009. His former classmate, Lt. Col. Val Finnell, told Fox news at the time that, despite Hasan's suspicious behavior, such as giving a presentation justifying suicide bombings, nothing was done about Hasan to see if he might be a security risk. Instead, he was treated with kid gloves. "The issue here is that there's a political correctness climate in the military. They don't want to say anything because it would be considered questioning somebody's religious belief, or they're afraid of an equal opportunity lawsuit", said Lt. Col. Finnell.

    In December 2015, a man who had been working in the area where the San Bernardino terrorist Syed Farook lived told CBS Los Angeles that,

    "he noticed a half-dozen Middle Eastern men in the area in recent weeks, but decided not to report anything since he did not wish to racially profile those people. "We sat around lunch thinking, 'What were they doing around the neighborhood?'" he said.

    The fear of being labeled an "Islamophobe" is real and has had lethal consequences. It is this fear that the Canadian parliament has now elevated into a parliamentary motion, signaling that this sentiment is shared by the highest echelons in the country, those who make the laws.

    A democratic parliament presumably should not be cowing its citizens into silence. The term "bullying" comes to mind. Parliamentary bullying and reckless disregard of the freedom of speech should have no place in a society that cares about the values of freedom and national security. Canada has already seen, to its disgrace, attacks on free speech against Mark Steyn and Ezra Levant, among others. Is this the country Canada wishes to become?

    The motion is reminiscent of the US House Resolution 569, "Condemning violence, bigotry, and hateful rhetoric towards Muslims in the United States," which was introduced in the House of Representatives on December 17, 2015. This Resolution is more detailed than the short condemnation of Islamophobia from the Canadian parliament, but the essence of both appears to be the same: Criticism of Islam or of Muslims is wrong and should be condemned, if not outright criminalized.

    In condemning "all forms of Islamophobia", Canada's parliament has in effect done everything the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) — consisting of 56 Muslim states plus "Palestine" — could wish for. Fighting "Islamophobia" is at the very top of the agenda of this organization, which is headquartered in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The OIC is aggressively promoting the so-called Istanbul Process, which aims to forbid all criticism of Islam and make this ban a part of international law.

    Ironically, the Saudi Arabian flag flew on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on November 2, as Canadian public officials met with a so-called "human rights" commission from Saudi Arabia. This commission publicly supported Saudi Arabia's mass executions in January 2016, in which 47 people were executed by the authorities, saying that they "enforce justice, fulfill … legitimate and legal requirements, and protect the society and its security and stability". That, apparently, is not problematic in the eyes of Canadian parliamentarians.

    As recently as October 24, the General Secretariat of the OIC held a meeting "to review the media strategy for countering Islamophobia". The meeting was scheduled to:

    "discuss the OIC media strategy and ways to counter Islamophobia in light of the recent developments and hate campaigns in different parts of the world, especially with the increasing number of Muslim refugees in Western countries and the mounting hate discourse in a manner that causes serious concern. The meeting aims to come up with clear and practical mechanisms for a counter-Islamophobia media campaign that highlights the true noble image of Islamic and contributes to halting the ongoing deliberate defamatory campaigns waged in different Western fora".

    The question, naturally, is whether Canada's motion will be replicated in other parliaments in the West. The OIC is particularly active in Europe, having opened a Permanent Observer Mission to the European Union in 2013. The OIC also recently formed the so-called Contact ‎Group for Muslims in Europe, whose formation was announced at the OIC Istanbul Summit in April 2016, and includes Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Algeria, Egypt, Somalia, Malaysia and Jordan.

    The establishment of the OIC Contact Group for Muslims in Europe

    "aims at ensuring the effective cooperation between the relevant parties, in order to lay out strategies to eliminate hate speech, physical assault, practices of intolerance, prejudice, racial discrimination and Islamophobia, and to support intercultural dialogue and social inclusion.‎ Further, the Group ‎can be a platform through which Muslims from various nationalities can exchange experiences, define best practices, with a view to increase Muslim participation in the political and social life in Europe". [emphasis added]

    The EU apparently sees the OIC as a friendly and benevolent organization with shared values. According to the EU's European External Action service (its diplomatic service, which assists the EU's foreign affairs chief):

    "The OIC has undergone important changes during the last decade: it made advances in support of freedom of speech and freedom of religion/belief. It enlarged its cooperation to economic, cultural, development and humanitarian fields."

    Seriously? In what parallel universe can the efforts of the OIC to stifle free speech possibly be considered advancement of freedom of speech and religion?

    As the OIC steps up its media campaign and its efforts in Europe, European parliaments are likely to experience initiatives like the petition in Canada. The European Union, for one, looks as if it would be happy to facilitate such a motion.

  • Russell Napier Interviewed: Fiscal Stimulus Comes With Dangerous Baggage – Financial Repression

    Financial repression is coming to Europe and the people that can’t see that don’t have a strong understanding of financial history and the lengths that politicians will go to get re-elected. That’s the view of financial historian and strategist Russell Napier, who thinks that the failure of central banks to reflate the global financial system will lead to stronger and more significant government action.

    Napier is the co-founder of online research platform ERIC and the author of Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms. In an interview with Real Vision TV, he envisions a sharp change in momentum from governments, starting with Europe, which is in a clear state of policy paralysis.  Items on the policy menu include capital controls, dividend controls and the forced purchase of government debt.


    Manipulated by the System with a Deluge of Monetary Policy

    While professional investors have learned how to play the game against central bankers, who are not too dissimilar to investors themselves – being forward looking and focused on inflation – Napier said they have been “royally gamed by the financial system” on a diet of monetary policy more monetary policy and more monetary policy.

    “But if it switches to government, then I think it’s a completely different game,” he said. “We’ve seen a little bit of it already in terms of government action, regulation, forcing people to buy that debt. But primarily, that debt’s been bought by central bankers,” he said.

    It’s clear now that central banking isn’t working in terms of reflating the economy and its failure to produce nominal GDP growth above the growth in debt, is now leading some to believe that a fiscal solution is coming. But if people are getting excited about that, then Napier thinks they couldn’t be more wrong.

    Fiscal Expansion Comes with Dangerous Baggage – The Tools of Financial Repression

    The nine most dangerous words in the English language are: ‘We’re from the government and we’re here to help you,’” he told Real Vision. “So to me it’s bizarre that people who are the stewards of other people’s capital are getting really excited because the government is coming,” adding that a fiscal expansion is likely to come with a lot of dangerous baggage.

    These are the tools of financial repression and Napier said the first thing to understand about the government is that they don’t give up, they want to get re-elected and they’ll come back with something else. And once you go down the rabbit hole of financial repression then one control eventually leads to another.

    It all starts with keeping the yield curve below inflation, which is easy enough for investors who will simply not buy any bonds, but that of course will encourage borrowing, which is what the government is trying to discourage, Napier says.

    So they have to bring in other things, measures, to stop you and I gearing up, which is the elements of financial repression. They have to try and force you and I to buy government debt even though it is a virtually guaranteed loss-making proposition, and they have to bring in controls that would stop us behaving naturally as a response to negative real interest rates. Now, those historically have been some horrific things.”

    Who’s Going to Buy the Government Debt ? You Are !

    While the first main tool of financial repression has to be capital controls, Napier said it won’t just stop there, with dividend controls and higher corporate profits among the tactics designed to make other investments look less attractive, relative to government debt

    “A lot of people think central bankers will keep going forever, but if we ever go to inflation, they clearly have to stop expanding their balance sheet, but somebody has to buy the government debt,” he said.  “So let’s say the fiscal policy comes. It succeeds. We get growth. We get inflation. Central bank balance sheets cannot expand in the growth and inflation. So who’s going to buy the government debt? The answer is you are. Particularly if you work for a regulated financial institution. It’s much better if you’re an individual. But regulated financial institutions are the people who will be expected to do that, and that is financial repression.”

    The Focus is Productive Growth – Not Speculative Growth

    Over the past thirty years, it’s been an easy job for investors to buy an asset, gear up and wait for the profits, but not necessarily in an era where debt is supposed to grow more slowly than GDP and Napier said it is clear there will need to be a period of adjustment where the flow of credit needs to be controlled. “It has to go to what they will define as productive, not speculative,” he said. “And I think Theresa May may have already used that phrase.

    “So we could be looking at a prolonged period of re-equitization of the whole financial system. It would happen tomorrow morning on the passage of one piece of legislation. The government bans the ability to deduct interest in the computation of corporation tax.”

    “Instantly, you’ve got a huge change. Now, do you think asset prices would go up in that environment? It seems to me that that policy, actually, would be a prime policy for financial repression. And I think if you take a longer term view– if you look at the structure of what we’ve built, it wouldn’t be a bad thing in the long term. You’d have to phase it in slowly.”

    Europe is the Battleground for Financial Repression

    The economic and political problems in Europe are well documented and this is where we could see the start of financial repression, Napier contends. In fact, its already been introduced twice with two countries having exchange controls imposed on them in the single currency block.

    “Everything’s possible. And the political justifications are Europe is going through a major reconsideration of its constitutional relationship. It’s deciding whether it’s going to have fiscal integration or not fiscal integration,” Napier said. “Now, against the background of that we can’t have the financial professionals front-running all of that.”

    No-one really cares about the call for capital controls when it’s happening in places like Greece and Cyprus, he adds, but if it happens in one market where people have significant liquid assets, then that changes everything.

    That is the crucial thing about the global impact of this,” Napier said, “If you de-liquify a major asset class– which is what a capital control does. It’s a de-liquefication event. As we know from financial history, that can be a solvency event for somebody. So that’s why I think it’s important.

    “You have to rank things by their probability and their importance. I think this is probable, and I think it changes the 21st century,” he said, adding that when he speaks to investment managers about it, they just want him to phone them up the day before it happens, which sums up the problem as far as he is concerned. “We have to ride this to the end,” Napier said. “I think if you’re a steward of other people’s money and savings and their savings for their pensions and their retirement, you don’t get to leave the party at one minute to midnight.”

    It all Comes Down to Financial History

    What it all boils down to is a lack of understanding and appreciation of financial history, which isn’t taught in business school, but it’s a subject close to Napier’s heart, which he has written and taught about at length. He’s even opened a library in Edinburgh, dedicated to financial history, called ‘The Library of Mistakes’.

    “They just don’t get it. They can’t cope with it. They don’t want to analyze it. They don’t want to talk about it. As far as they’re concerned, I’ll just buy good companies. I’ll stick with good companies. Everything will be fine. That will be what I’ll do,” he said.

    “Now, that didn’t work out so well in the great financial crisis. Nothing to do with politicians, but to do with more not understanding money and credit. But this time, they don’t want to get to grips with the politicians.”

    With Europe now in the process of potentially dissolving the euro for political reasons – nothing to do with economics and finance, which Napier said should have meant it would have been falling apart for years – it really highlights that politicians have been prepared to bend just about every rule to make it work

    “Clearly if you’ve read a bit of financial history, you can’t forecast with 100 degree accuracy. But politicians may ultimately be more forecast-able than the prices you’re trying to forecast every day,” he said.

    Watch the full interview on Real Vision TV , a dedicated financial television service featuring in-depth interviews with many of the worlds most respected investors, analysts, investment strategists and geopolitical analysts.  No ads, no bias, no bullshit.  Try it free for 7 days.

     

  • The Unbearable Smugness Of The American Media

    Submitted by Will Rahn via CBS News

    The mood in the Washington press corps is bleak, and deservedly so.

    It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that, with a few exceptions, we were all tacitly or explicitly #WithHer, which has led to a certain anguish in the face of Donald Trump’s victory. More than that and more importantly, we also missed the story, after having spent months mocking the people who had a better sense of what was going on.

    This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. Had Hillary Clinton won, there’s be a winking “we did it” feeling in the press, a sense that we were brave and called Trump a liar and saved the republic.

    So much for that. The audience for our glib analysis and contempt for much of the electorate, it turned out, was rather limited. This was particularly true when it came to voters, the ones who turned out by the millions to deliver not only a rebuke to the political system but also the people who cover it. Trump knew what he was doing when he invited his crowds to jeer and hiss the reporters covering him. They hate us, and have for some time.

    And can you blame them? Journalists love mocking Trump supporters. We insult their appearances. We dismiss them as racists and sexists. We emote on Twitter about how this or that comment or policy makes us feel one way or the other, and yet we reject their feelings as invalid.

    It’s a profound failure of empathy in the service of endless posturing. There’s been some sympathy from the press, sure: the dispatches from “heroin country” that read like reports from colonial administrators checking in on the natives. But much of that starts from the assumption that Trump voters are backward, and that it’s our duty to catalogue and ultimately reverse that backwardness. What can we do to get these people to stop worshiping their false god and accept our gospel?

    We diagnose them as racists in the way Dark Age clerics confused medical problems with demonic possession. Journalists, at our worst, see ourselves as a priestly caste. We believe we not only have access to the indisputable facts, but also a greater truth, a system of beliefs divined from an advanced understanding of justice.

    You’d think that Trump’s victory – the one we all discounted too far in advance – would lead to a certain newfound humility in the political press. But of course that’s not how it works. To us, speaking broadly, our diagnosis was still basically correct. The demons were just stronger than we realized.

    This is all a “whitelash,” you see. Trump voters are racist and sexist, so there must be more racists and sexists than we realized. Tuesday night’s outcome was not a logic-driven rejection of a deeply flawed candidate named Clinton; no, it was a primal scream against fairness, equality, and progress. Let the new tantrums commence!

    Deplorable

     

    That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. It’s similar to how media Twitter works, a system where people who dissent from the proper framing of a story are attacked by mobs of smugly incredulous pundits. Journalists exist primarily in a world where people can get shouted down and disappear, which informs our attitudes toward all disagreement.

    Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological.

    That the explainers and data journalists so frequently get things hilariously wrong never invites the soul-searching you’d think it would. Instead, it all just somehow leads us to more smugness, more meanness, more certainty from the reporters and pundits. Faced with defeat, we retreat further into our bubble, assumptions left unchecked. No, it’s the voters who are wrong.

    As a direct result, we get it wrong with greater frequency. Out on the road, we forget to ask the right questions. We can’t even imagine the right question. We go into assignments too certain that what we find will serve to justify our biases. The public’s estimation of the press declines even further — fewer than one-in-three Americans trust the press, per Gallup — which starts the cycle anew.

    There’s a place for opinionated journalism; in fact, it’s vital. But our causal, profession-wide smugness and protestations of superiority are making us unable to do it well.

    Our theme now should be humility. We must become more impartial, not less so. We have to abandon our easy culture of tantrums and recrimination. We have to stop writing these know-it-all, 140-character sermons on social media and admit that, as a class, journalists have a shamefully limited understanding of the country we cover.

    What’s worse, we don’t make much of an effort to really understand, and with too few exceptions, treat the economic grievances of Middle America like they’re some sort of punchline. Sometimes quite literally so, such as when reporters tweet out a photo of racist-looking Trump supporters and jokingly suggest that they must be upset about free trade or low wages.

    We have to fix this, and the broken reasoning behind it. There’s a fleeting fun to gang-ups and groupthink. But it’s not worth what we are losing in the process.

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Today’s News 10th November 2016

  • Truth Is The Enemy Of The State

    Submitted by Bob Livingston via PersonalLiberty.com,

    There is a saw that comes from Shakespeare’s “The Merchant of Venice” that “the truth will out.” But not if government has its way.

    That’s because truth is the enemy of the state. The state, meaning the apparatus of government, is “the system” that controls the American people.

    Most people believe they control the political system through elections. Little do they know that the government and the corporate state own and control the state and the people. In other words, the system is rigged, as Donald Trump says. The system must keep this information invisible and it does so through constant conditioning of the public mind.

    Now consider what has happened and is happening to Julian Assange. Consider Edward Snowden.

    Assange created WikiLeaks in 2006, exposing, among other things, malfeasance in the conduct of Bush the Lesser’s “War on Terror.” Progressive Democrats loved Assange then.

    But by 2010, with George W. Bush out of power and Barack Obama continuing old wars and starting new ones, the truths that were being outed by WikiLeaks were hitting too close to home. WikiLeaks got its hands on a treasure trove of State Department and Pentagon emails and documents being dispatched across the globe.

    I wrote at the time in “A war on the truth,” that what WikiLeaks was revealing was:

    …the result of a secretive, unaccountable and over-powerful government; a perfidious empire that seeks to rule the world by guile, cunning or force, if necessary. And the response by the United States government and by authorities in some of the U.S.’s puppet states — like Great Britain, which arrested Assange, and Sweden, which brought spurious charges of rape against him — demonstrate the length the ruling elites will go to suppress the truth.

     

    Truth is the enemy of a totalitarian regime. Fooling, lying, spying: That is the way of the totalitarian regime. Fooling, lying to and spying on friends and enemies, and even worse, its own citizens.

    Just before I wrote that, we now know, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was contemplating various ways to shut WikiLeaks down. During a November meeting, sources say, Clinton suddenly blurted out, “Can’t we just drone this guy?”

    According to sources present at the meeting:

    The statement drew laughter from the room which quickly died off when the Secretary kept talking in a terse manner, sources said. Clinton said Assange, after all, was a relatively soft target, “walking around” freely and thumbing his nose without any fear of reprisals from the United States. Clinton was upset about Assange’s previous 2010 records releases, divulging secret U.S. documents about the war in Afghanistan in July and the war in Iraq just a month earlier in October, sources said. At that time in 2010, Assange was relatively free and not living cloistered in in the embassy of Ecuador in London. Prior to 2010, Assange focused Wikileaks’ efforts on countries outside the United States but now under Clinton and Obama, Assange was hammering America with an unparalleled third sweeping Wikileaks document dump in five months. Clinton was fuming, sources said, as each State Department cable dispatched during the Obama administration was signed by her.

     

    Clinton and other top administration officials knew the compromising materials warehoused in the CableGate stash would provide critics and foreign enemies with a treasure trove of counterintelligence. Bureaucratic fears about the CableGate release ultimately proved to be well founded by Clinton, her inner circle and her boss in the White House.

    Efforts to shut down WikiLeaks included an American intelligence-initiated operation to entrap Assange in a phony rape charge. The U.S. government also pressured PayPal, VISA and MasterCard to shut down donations to WikiLeaks. The Swedish bank handling Assange’s legal defense fund was pressured by the U.S. government to freeze the account. The firm hosting WikiLeaks’ website was pressured to shut the site the down.

    Now WikiLeaks is revealing widespread corruption, vote rigging, media manipulation and other damning evidence against the Democrat Party, Hillary Clinton and her minions. WikiLeaks and Assange are prying the lid off the propaganda machine and exposing the corrupt system.

    In response, U.S. intelligence (an oxymoron) initiated another effort to entrap Assange in a sex-related scandal; this time by connecting him with a phony “dating site” and alleging he solicited sex with an 8-year-old girl.

    John Kerry’s State Department pressured Ecuador to cut off Assange’s internet connection. There is a new move afoot to figure a way to pry him out of the Ecuadorian Embassy in London and turn him over to U.S. authorities, where he will no doubt disappear into the bowels of indefinite detention.

    Only the power of propaganda keeps the people from overthrowing the U.S. government by force. So truth is the enemy of the state and the state will do everything it can to suppress it.

    That’s not surprising. What is surprising is the vast number of people on both “sides” of the political spectrum outside of government who see truth seekers and truth disseminators like Assange, Snowden and Bradley Manning as enemies rather than friends of liberty.

  • 5 Shot, 2 Life-Threatening Injuries During Anti-Trump Protest In Seattle

    Following an afternoon and evening of protests decrying the election of Donald Trump as America’s next president, The Seattle Times reports, police are responding to reports that at least four people were shot downtown Wednesday night.

    Officers were converging on the area of Third and Pike.  

    An anti-Trump rally, which started at Westlake Mall, turned into a march and was proceeding down nearby streets at the time of the shootings, according to witnesses.

    Video from Seattle…

     

    More details to follow…

    Seattle Fire Dept confirm 5 short, 2 life-threatening injuries…

  • Anarchists Storm US Consulate, Protest Obama's Visit To Greece

    Anarchists entered the US Consulate in Thessaloniki, Northern Greece and threw flyers opposing the upcoming visit of Barack Obama to Greece. As KeepTalkingGreece.com reports, a group of some 15 people reportedly entered the building where the Consulate is located on the 7th floor on Tuesday morning. They chanted slogans, threw flyers in the corridors and attempted to open banners.

     

    Police rushed to the area and detained six of the protesters.

    According to Athens News Agency, the “Anarchist Collective of Rubicon” and the “Libertarian Thessaloniki Initiative” uploaded a text in a website of the Greek anti-authoritarian movement. They stated that “the visit of the outgoing US President, Barack Obama in Greece on the eve of the anniversary of the [Students’] Polytechnic uprising (and thus under a left government) is anything but a courtesy visit. The content of the visit could be summed up as “business as usual” and it is known that such “jobs are dirty with the blood of the people.”

    The group Rubicon is known for raiding and entering even public buildings and public transport stations to protest the state mechanisms.

  • The Source Of Our Rage: The Ruling Elite Is Protected For The Consequences Of Its Dominance

    Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    ELECTION NOTE: As I write this Tuesday evening, it appears Donald Trump may win the presidency. For those who cannot understand how anyone could possibly vote for Trump, please read the above essay again and ponder what people were voting against by voting for Trump.

     

    They may well have been voting against the corrupt, self-serving status quo rather than voting for the individual Donald Trump.

     

    There are very few opportunities for powerless non-elites to register their disapproval of the nation's Ruling Elite and the corrupt status quo. Voting for an outsider in a national election is one such rare opportunity.

     

    As I noted in October, The Ruling Elite Has Lost the Consent of the Governed (October 20, 2016).

     

    If you still don't understand how Trump could win, please read the below essay as many times as is necessary for you to get it: the status quo of corrupt self-serving insiders generates injustice and inequality as its only possible output.

    There are many sources of rage: injustice, the destruction of truth, powerlessness. But if we had to identify the one key source of non-elite rage that cuts across all age, ethnicity, gender and regional boundaries, it is this: The Ruling Elite is protected from the destructive consequences of its predatory dominance.

    We see this reality across the entire political, social and economic landscape.

    If I had to pick one chart that illustrates the widening divide between the Ruling Elite and the non-elites, it is this chart of wages as a share of the nation's output (GDP): 46 years of relentless decline, interrupted by gushing fountains of credit and asset bubbles that enriched the few while leaving the economic landscape of the many in ruins.

    The Ruling Elite once had an obligation to uphold the social contract as a responsibility that came with their vast privilege, power and wealth (i.e. noblesse oblige).

    America's Ruling Elite has transmogrified into an incestuous self-serving few unapologetically plundering the many. In their hubris-soaked arrogance, their right to rule is unquestioningly based on their moral and intellectual superiority to "the little people" they loot with abandon.

    Rather than feel a responsibility to the nation, America's Elite views the status quo as a free pass to self-aggrandizement.

    Much has changed in America in the past 46 years. Not only have wages and salaries declined as a share of "economic growth," but the wealth that has been generated has flowed to the top of the wealth/power pyramid (see chart below).

    Social mobility has also declined drastically: Restoring America’s Economic Mobility, as has trust in government and key institutions.

    As Frank Buckley, the author of The Way Back: Restoring the Promise of America observed:

    "In a corrupt country, trust is a rare commodity. That’s America today. Only 19 percent of Americans say they trust the government most of the time, down from 73 percent in 1958 according to the Pew Research Center."

    The top .01% has seen its share of the household wealth triple from 7% to 22% in the past four decades, while the share of the nation's wealth owned by the bottom 90% has plummeted from 36% to 23%.

    As I described in America's Ruling Elite Has Failed and Deserves to Be Fired and Now That the Presidential-Election Side Show Is Finally Ending…., the economy is rapidly undergoing structural changes that tend to reward the top 5% class of technocrats and managers and the top .1% with millions in mobile capital, while leaving the bottom 95% in the dust.

    Rather than address this rising inequality directly and honestly, the Ruling Elite has parroted propaganda and policies that protect their gains while obfuscating the reality that most American households have been losing ground for decades, a decline that has been masked by replacing real income with rising debt.

    The ceaseless parroting of the Ruling Elite and the Mainstream Media that prosperity has been rising for everyone is nothing less than the destruction of truth. This propaganda has one purpose: to mask the inequality and injustice built into the American status quo.

    The rapid concentration of wealth has also concentrated political power in the hands of a few who seamlessly combine public and private modes of power.

    This wealth and power protects the Ruling Elite from the perverse consequences of their dominance. Their precious offspring rarely serve at the point of the American military's spear, they never lose their jobs or income when corporations shift production (and R&D, etc.) overseas, and they are never replaced with illegal immigrants paid under the table.

    Rather, the Ruling Elite is pleased to pay immigrants a pittance to care for their children, clean their luxe homes, walk their dogs, etc.

    This is why we're enraged: we bear the consequences of the Ruling Elite's dominance. The system is rigged to benefit the few, who use their wealth and power to protect themselves from the destructive consequences of their self-serving dominance.

    This rage is as yet inchoate, sensed but not yet understood as the inevitable result of a broken system and a predatory Elite that exploits the system to maximize their private gain by any means available.

  • After Bashing "Son Of A Whore" Obama, Philippines' Duterte Congratulates, Wants To Work With Trump

    Trump has barely been president elect for one day, and he is already fixing the foreign policy mistake of his predecessor.

    What a difference a presidential election makes: after lashing out on an almost daily basis at outgoing American president Barack Obama, calling him “son of a whore” and telling him he can “go to hell”, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte joined Vladimir Putin in congratulating Donald Trump on his election success, and said on Wednesday he now wishes to stop quarrelling with the United States, recalling his anger at the Obama administration for criticising him.

    The maverick leader, incidentally known as “Trump of the East” for his unrestrained rants and lewd remarks, has repeatedly hit out at Washington in recent months, threatening to cut defense pacts and end military joint drills. “I would like to congratulate Mr. Donald Trump. Long live,” Duterte said in a speech to the Filipino community during a visit to Malaysia.

    “We are both making curses. Even with trivial matters we curse. I was supposed to stop because Trump is there. I don’t want to quarrel anymore, because Trump has won” he said cited by Reuters.

    Duterte, who as profiled previously won a May election by a huge margin and is often compared with Trump, having himself been the alternative candidate from outside of national politics, campaigned on a populist, anti-establishment platform and struck a chord among ordinary Filipinos with his promises to fix what he called a broken country.

    But the biggest fixture of Duterte’s presidency so far has been his hostility toward the Obama White House, expressed in near-daily eruptions of anger over its concerns about human rights abuses during his deadly war on drugs.

    He also threatened on numerous occasions to sever a military relationship that has been a key element of Washington’s “pivot” to Asia.

    Duterte on Wednesday told Filipinos how angry he had been at Washington, saying it had threatened to cut off aid and had treated the Philippines like a dog tied to a post. “They talk as if we are still the colonies,” he said. “You do not give us the aid, shit, to hell with you,” he said, recalling comments he had directed at Obama. In retrospect, we can partially commiserate with the outgoing administration: it is not exactly clear what the proper response to such daily verbal diarrhea is.

    Ironically, with the Obama administration having effectively lost the Philippines as a core strategic ally in the Pacific Rim, it was Trump who told Reuters that the Philippines was a very important strategic location and that Duterte’s comments about removing foreign troops showed “a lack of respect for our country.”

    Judging by Duterte’s sudden change of heart, it wasn’t lack of respect for the country, just the individual in charge of it.

    On the other hand, for some reason we get the feeling that once the US Trump and the “Trump of the East”, the outcome will be quite volatile, if extremely entertaining.

  • How Did The Media Pollsters Get The Election So Wrong?

    The day before the 2016 US Presidential Election, most pollsters and statistical models had pegged Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning at greater than 90%.

    However, as VisualCapitalst’s Jeff Desjardin noted yesterday, the consensus view is not to be trusted in a post-Brexit world.

    Here’s what went wrong:

     

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

     

    We looked at the predictions made by 12 major newspapers and pollsters the day before the election, to see where they went wrong.

    For Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire – not a single source gave an edge to Republicans.

    For Florida and North Carolina, the pollsters were slightly less reckless. The Associated Press correctly had the Sunshine State as “leaning red”, while the Huffington Post saw North Carolina ultimately voting Trump.

    After this and the Brexit polling disaster, the media is sure to be much more cautious with their models going into the next big political event.

  • Soros-Sponsored Social Justice Warriors Besiege Trump Tower – Live Feed

    Seemingly unwilling to accept the results of the democratic selection of the nation's leader for the next four years, hundreds of grieving Hillary Clinton supporters – egged on by George Soros' MoveOn.org – are laying siege to Trump Tower in New York City. Screaming "Fuck Donald Trump", yelling "Not My President", chanting "Pussy Grabs Back", and burning the American flag, it appears these young millennials are just the kind of deplorables this country should be proud of…

    As NBC's Katy Tur exclaimed "It's surreal in NYC. People are walking around like zombies with thousand yard stares."

    MoveOn.org released the following press release Wednesday afternoon:

    Americans to Come Together in Hundreds Peaceful Gatherings of Solidarity, Resistance, and Resolve Following Election Results

     

    Hundreds of Americans, dozens of organizations to gather peacefully outside the White House and in cities and towns nationwide to take a continued stand against misogyny, racism, Islamophobia, and xenophobia.

     

    Tonight, thousands of Americans will come together at hundreds of peaceful gatherings in cities and towns across the nation, including outside the White House, following the results of Tuesday’s presidential election.

     

    The gatherings – organized by MoveOn.org and allies – will affirm a continued rejection of Donald Trump’s bigotry, xenophobia, Islamophobia, and misogyny and demonstrate our resolve to fight together for the America we still believe is possible.

     

    Within two hours of the call-to-action, MoveOn members had created more than 200 gatherings nationwide, with the number continuing to grow on Wednesday afternoon.

     

    WHAT: Hundreds of peaceful gatherings of solidarity, resistance, and resolve nationwide

     

    WHEN / WHERE: Find local gatherings here. Major gatherings include in New York City’s Columbus Circle and outside the White House in Washington, DC.

     

    RSVP: Please email press@moveon.org to confirm attendance.

     

    “This is a disaster. We fought our hearts out to avert this reality. But now it’s here,” MoveOn.org staff wrote to members on Wednesday. “The new president-elect and many of his most prominent supporters have targeted, demeaned, and threatened millions of us—and millions of our friends, family, and loved ones. Both chambers of Congress remain in Republican hands. We are entering an era of profound and unprecedented challenge, a time of danger for our communities and our country. In this moment, we have to take care of ourselves, our families, and our friends—especially those of us who are on the front lines facing hate, including Latinos, women, immigrants, refugees, Black people, Muslims, LGBT Americans, and so many others. And we need to make it clear that we will continue to stand together.”

    Live Feed from New York's Trump Tower…

     

    The 'basket' of protesters marched up through Times Square…

    Images of the deplorable behavior…

     

  • Meanwhile, From Canada…

    Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

    h/t Robmu1

    The flood of Trump-fearing American liberals sneaking across the border into Canada has intensified in the past week. The Republican presidential campaign is prompting an exodus among left-leaning Americans who fear they’ll soon be required to hunt, pray, pay taxes, and live according to the Constitution.

    Canadian border residents say it’s not uncommon to see dozens of sociology professors, liberal arts majors, global-warming activists, and “green” energy proponents crossing their fields at night.

    “I went out to milk the cows the other day, and there was a Hollywood producer huddled in the barn,” said southern Manitoba farmer Red Greenfield, whose acreage borders North Dakota. “He was cold, exhausted and hungry, and begged me for a latte and some free-range chicken. When I said I didn’t have any, he left before I even got a chance to show him my screenplay, eh?”

    In an effort to stop the illegal aliens, Greenfield erected higher fences, but the liberals scaled them. He then installed loudspeakers that blared Rush Limbaugh across the fields, but they just stuck their fingers in their ears and kept coming. Officials are particularly concerned about smugglers who meet liberals just south of the border, pack them into electric cars, and drive them across the border, where they are simply left to fend for themselves after the battery dies.

    “A lot of these people are not prepared for our rugged conditions,” an Alberta border patrolman said. “I found one carload without a single bottle of Perrier water, or any gemelli with shrimp and arugula. All they had was a nice little Napa Valley cabernet and some kale chips. When liberals are caught, they’re sent back across the border, often wailing that they fear persecution from Trump high-hairers.

    Rumors are circulating about plans being made to build re-education camps where liberals will be forced to drink domestic beer, study the Constitution, and find jobs that actually contribute to the economy.

    In recent days, liberals have turned to ingenious ways of crossing the border. Some have been disguised as senior citizens taking a bus trip to buy cheap Canadian prescription drugs. After catching a half-dozen young vegans in blue-hair wig disguises, Canadian immigration authorities began stopping buses and quizzing the supposed senior citizens about Perry Como and Rosemary Clooney to prove that they were alive in the ’50s.

    “If they can’t identify the accordion player on The Lawrence Welk Show, we become very suspicious about their age,” an official said.

    Canadian citizens have complained that the illegal immigrants are creating an organic-broccoli shortage, are buying up all the Barbara Streisand CD’s, and are overloading the internet while downloading jazzercise apps to their cell phones.

    “I really feel sorry for American liberals, but the Canadian economy just can’t support them,” an Ottawa resident said. “After all, how many art-history majors does one country need?”

    *  *  *

    Fact or Fiction?

  • European Politicians Terrified By "Horror Scenario" After Brexit, Trump

    First it was Brexit, then there was Trump. Two “shocking” events that nobody in the media, markets or punditry could admit could possibly happen. They happened… and that’s just the beginning – as we showed last night, the political calendar over the next two years is only heating up, with countless potential “black swan” events – often involving nationalist tendencies or outright separatism, and further hits to the establishment status quo – on the horizon.

    Most of these events take place in Europe, a powderkeg of simmering anger and resentment built up over the centuries of artificially enforced borders cutting across religions, ethnicities and cultures, which has only been swept under the rug over the past several decades with the help of an artificial customs and monetary union which is increasingly unstable. As such, even the smallest domino can push the entire continent into a state of terminal socio-economic collapse.

    And both Europe, and the globalist establishment, know this.

    The “horror scenario”

    Which is why back in May, when Donald’s Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election seemed the remotest of possibilities, a senior European official took to Twitter before a G7 summit in Tokyo to warn of a horror scenario“.

    Imagine, said the official quoted by Reuters, if instead of Barack Obama, Francois Hollande, David Cameron and Matteo Renzi, next year’s meeting of the club of rich nations included Trump, Marine Le Pen, Boris Johnson and Beppe Grillo: truly a horror for an exclusive group of aloof elitists who enjoy sneering on the same people whom they take advantage of every single day.

    A month after Martin Selmayr, the head of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s cabinet made the comment, Britain shocked the world by voting to leave the European Union. Cameron stepped down as prime minister and Johnson – the former London mayor who helped swing Britons behind Brexit – became foreign minister. Now, five months later, with Trump’s triumph over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, the populist tsunami that seemed outlandish a few months ago is becoming reality, and the consequences for Europe’s own political landscape are potentially huge.

    This is why Europe is suddenly terrified that what until June seemed impossible, is now all too likely: in 2017, voters in the Netherlands, France and Germany – and possibly in Italy and Britain too – will vote in elections that could be coloured by the triumphs of Trump and Brexit, and the toxic politics that drove those campaigns.

    And, as Reuters writes, the lessons will not be lost on continental Europe’s populist parties, who hailed Trump’s victory on Wednesday as a body blow for the political mainstream. “Politics will never be the same,” said Geert Wilders of the far-right Dutch Freedom Party. “What happened in America can happen in Europe and the Netherlands as well.”

    Just like after Brexit, French National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen was similarly ebullient. “Today the United States, tomorrow France,” Le Pen, the father of the party’s leader Marine Le Pen, tweeted.

    Trump as a Model

    Daniela Schwarzer, director of research at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), said Trump’s bare-fisted tactics against his opponents and the media provided a model for populist European parties that have exercised comparative restraint on a continent that still remembers World War Two. “The broken taboos, the extent of political conflict, the aggression that we’ve seen from Trump, this can widen the scope of what becomes thinkable in our own political culture,” Schwarzer said.

    Perhaps it is not the “political conflict” or aggression from Trump that Daniela is worried about; perhaps it is the threat of a truly democratic vote in a world in which all the benefits of crony capitalism and suppressed representation have gone exclusively to the 1%, something which is now openly known and resented by the rest of the increasingly angry population. And, as both Brexit and Trump have shown, an angry, education population is the worst possible enemy of any elitist, globalist clique.

    Italy and Austria

    Europe will get the first taste of its own “Trump Moment” as early as next month, when on December 4 Austrians will vote in a presidential election that could see Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party become the first far-right head of state to be freely elected in western Europe since 1945. On the same day, a constitutional reform referendum on which Prime Minister Renzi has staked his future could upset the political order in Italy, pushing Grillo’s left-wing 5-Star movement closer to the reins of power.

    Channeling Donald Trump, local Euroskeptic politician and comedian, Beppe Grillo said that “an epoch has gone up in flames. The real demagogues are the press, intellectuals, who are anchored to a world that no longer exists.”

    Right-wing parties are already running governments in Poland and Hungary. In western Europe, the likelihood of a Trump figure taking power seems remote for now but that too is rapidly changing. In Europe’s parliamentary democracies, traditional parties from the right and left have set aside historical rivalries, banding together to keep out the populists.

    But the lesson from the Brexit vote is that parties do not have to be in government to shape the political debate, said Tina Fordham, chief global political analyst at Citi. She cited the anti-EU UK Independence Party which has just one seat in the Westminster parliament. “UKIP did poorly in the last election but had a huge amount influence over the political dynamic in Britain,” Fordham said. “The combination of the Brexit campaign and Trump have absolutely changed the way campaigns are run.”

    On Wednesday, UKIP leader Nigel Farage hailed Trump’s victory on Wednesday as a “supersized Brexit”.

    Europe’s Political Limbo

    As new political movements emerge, traditional parties will find it increasingly difficult to form coalitions and hold them together.  In Spain, incumbent Mariano Rajoy was returned to power last week but only after two inconclusive elections in which voters fled his conservatives and their traditional rival on the left, the Socialists, for two new parties, Podemos and Ciudadanos. After 10 months of political limbo, Rajoy finds himself atop a minority government that is expected to struggle to pass laws, implement reforms and plug holes in Spain’s public finances.

    The virus of political fragility could spread next year from Spain to the Netherlands, where Wilders’s Freedom Party is neck-and-neck in opinion polls with Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberals. For Rutte to stay in power after the election in March, he may be forced to consider novel, less-stable coalition options with an array of smaller parties, including the Greens.

    The Le Pen Factor

    In France, which has a presidential system, the chances of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, emerging victorious are seen as slim. According to Reuters, the odds-on favourite to win the presidential election next spring is Alain Juppe, a 71-year-old centrist with extensive experience in government who has tapped into a yearning for responsible leadership after a decade of disappointment from Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy.

    Then again if there is anything the Trump election has shown, is how woefully bad the polling industry has become and how incapable it is to deal with a splintering society that no longer conforms to historical norms. In a sign of Le Pen’s strength, polls show she will win more support than any other politician in the first round of the election. Even if she loses the second round run-off, as polls suggest, her performance is likely to be seen as a watershed moment for continental Europe’s far-right. It could give her a powerful platform from which to fight the reforms that Juppe and his conservative rivals for the presidency are promising.

    The Heart of Europe

    And then there is the country at the center of its all. In Germany, where voters go to the polls next autumn, far-right parties have struggled to gain a foothold in the post-war era because of the dark history of the Nazis, but that too is changing. Just three years old, the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD), has become a force at the national level, unsettling Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives, who have been punished in a series of regional votes because of her welcoming policy towards refugees.

    Merkel could announce as early as next month that she plans to run for a fourth term, and if she does run, current polls suggest she would win. But she would do so as a diminished figure in a country that is perhaps more divided than at any time in the post-war era. Even Merkel’s conservative sister party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union, has refused to endorse her.

    * * *

    One year ago, Europe would have ignored any potential risks from the vote of society’s “fringe.” Now, after the two biggest political shocks in recent “developed nation” history, it can no longer afford to leave any outcome to chance, which means that the contemplated “horror scenario” is an all too real threat for the European’s political oligarchy. The question we have, however, is whether similar to previous occasions in which the establishment status quo has found itself trapped, Europe’s political elite will do anything and everything to stay in power, even if that means engage in preemptive “horrors” of its own against its own people. Sadly, Europe’s history is all too full of precisely such examples and if there is anything the recent leaked glimpses into the decisionmaking process of the elite have confirmed, it is that one can no longer discount any theoretical outcome, no matter how ridiculous or “conspiratorial” it may appear at first glance.

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Today’s News 9th November 2016

  • Huffington Post Ends Editor's Note Calling Trump "Serial Liar, Rampant Xenophobe, Racist, Misogynist"

    For months, every story on the Huffington Post about Trump came with a disclaimer at the end describing him as a “serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist,” among other things.  Now, according to Politico, a note sent to HuffPo staff from the organization’s Washington Bureau Chief, Ryan Grim, on Tuesday evening said the disclaimer will no longer be used in an effort create a “clean slate”.

    “Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.”

    Of course, Huffington Post spokeswoman Sujata Mitra noted that the plan all along was to remove the “Editor’s Note” after the election cycle…of course, because the point was to block a Trump presidency which didn’t really work out that well apparently.

    “The thinking is that (assuming he wins) that he’s now president and we’re going to start with a clean slate,” Grim wrote in the memo, obtained by POLITICO. “If he governs in a racist, misogynistic way, we reserve the right to add it back on. This would be giving respect to the office of the presidency which Trump and his backers never did.”

     

    “This note was added to stories about presidential candidate Donald Trump during the election cycle,” Huffington Post spokeswoman Sujata Mitra wrote in a statement. “Now that the election is over, we will no longer be adding the note to future stories, as he is no longer a presidential candidate.”

    Seems like Ariana probably should have accepted this board position from PMUSA…turns out her “independence” wasn’t all that “useful” to Hillary after all.

    “She is enthusiastic abt the project but asks if she’s more useful to us not being on the Board and, instead, using Huffpo to echo our message without any perceived conflicts. She has a point.”

    HuffPo

  • Yale Professor Makes Exam Optional Due To Student Shock Over Presidential Election

    Students are being triggered across the nation tonight and so one Yale Economics professor has taken a stand to protect the special snowflakes are they wrote him expressing shock over the outcome of the presidential election… by making their exams optional.

     

    h/t @Jon_Victor_

  • Meanwhile, At Hillary Clinton's Headquarters: Tragedy

    It was supposed to be a night of joy, celebrations and breaking “glass ceilings.” It is now nothing short of tragedy.

    despite a palpable buzz in the air at the start of the evening, the crowd grew quiet as the swing states of North Carolina and Florida went to the Republican presidential nominee. Michigan, New Hampshire and Wisconsin all look as though they could swing for Trump, as well. Pardon, president Trump.

    “I feel nauseous,” one top campaign official for Clinton told People before slipping behind a black curtain beyond which reporters were barred.

  • S&P & Nasdaq Limit-Down, Erase 2016 Gains, Peso Plunges To Record Low As Trump Victory Looks Assured

    This chart tells the whole story of the night: Trump – the massive underdog – appears to have pulled off precisely what he promised to do: Brexit times 10, having won virtually every key battleground state including Ohio, North Carolina and moments ago, Florida.

    The latest electoral map:

    *  *  *

    Futures

    • S&P: -5%
    • FTSE: -5%
    • DAX: -5%
    • Nikkei: -6.3%
    • Crude: -3.8%
    • Peso/USD: -13%
    • Dollar Index: -2%
    • Gold: +4.3%
    • 30-Yr Treasury: +1.2%

    Who could have seen this coming?

     

    S&P and Nasdaq are limit down…

     

    Nasdaq has given up 2016 gains…

     

    Nikke Futures are down 1000 points…

     

    USDJPY overnight vol at its highest since Lehman…

     

    10Y yields have plunged most since Brexit…

     

    December rate hike odds have collapsed to 50-50…

     

    S&P 500 Futures are very near limit down…

     

    AP has called Florida for Trump…

     

    US equities are down almost 5% from the close… (S&P -100, Dow -700, Nasdaq -200)

    Every market is in turmoil…

     

    These are the key battleground states that Trump won tonight against all odds:

    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Iowa
    • North Carolina
    • Ohio
    • Utah

    And, more shockingly, he appears set to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Arizona.

    *  *  *

    Update 1046:

    Trump is projected to win North Carolina by FOX

    * * *

    Update 10:32PM

     

    *  *  *

    Update 10:24pm

    NBC project Trump winner in Ohio, and sees 168 electoral college votes for Trump, 109 for Clinton

    * * *

    Update 10:15pm

    Total bloodbath in markets – Peso has crashed to record lows above 20/$ and Dow Futures are down over 650 points…

     

    VIX Futures are soaring above 22 and Gold is above $1310…

    *  *  *

    Update 10:00 pm

    Donald trump is prijected to win Montana, Hillary Clinton is projected to win Virginia.

    * * *

    Update 9:40pm

    Donald Trump is declared winner in Louisiana; Hillary Clinton is projected to win Connecticut.

    * * *

    Update 9:13pm

    Trump declared winner in Texas, Arkansas

    * * *

    Update: 09.10pm

    Clinton is projected to win New York; Trump Wins Dakotas, Kansas, Wyoming

    * * *

    Update 09:04pm

    Bloodbath in markets as Trump leads in Florida and Ohio…

    *  *  *

    Update 8:33pm

    • REPUBLICANS MAINTAIN CONTROL OF HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: NBC

    *  *  *

    Update 8:04pm

    Peso and Stocks are soaring as Clinton leads Florida and takes 68-48 lead in early states.

     

    * * *

    Update 7:41pm

    And the first votes from Ohio start coming in, and once again, Trump is in the early lead with 1% of the vote counter.

    * * *

    Update 7:36pm

    The fight for Florida is furious, and with 46% of the vote counted, Trump has again regained a small, 25% lead.

    Meanwhile, with 2% of the vote in North Carolina, another must win state for Trump, he has an early lead.

    * * *

    Update 7:32pm

    CNN and NBC News have called West Virginia for Trump leaving him leading Hillary by 24 to 3.

    *  *  *

    Update 7:30pm

    It is all about Florida, where in a close race, Trump and Hillary have been trading the lead, and with 36% of the vote, Hilllary has a 49.2% lead to Trump's 48.0%

    * * *

    Update 7:04pm

    While the early states were heavily republican and thus a given for Trump – where he was just projected winner –  moments ago votes have begun comiking in from key battleground states including Florida (29 electoral votes) and Virginia (13). As well as Georgia (16), South Carolina (9) and Vermont (3), which was just called for Hillary.

    As of this moment Trump has won 19 electoral votes, while Hillary has 3.

    With 12% of the vote in, Trump has a modest lead in Florida, and a bigger lead in Georgia.

    Meanwhile, in Virginia, with 3% of the vote counted, Trump has a 57.1% lead over Clinton.

    * * *

    Update 7:00pm.

    And following Trump, commanding lead in the first states, CNN just called Indiana and Kentucky for Donald Trump; while Hillary clinton projected to win Vermont.

    While it is still very early in the evening, with only a handful of the early votes counted, the first results are coming in and Trump – at least for now – has the lead in both republican strongholds of Kentucky and Indiana with some 70% of the vote, in line with expectations.

    Trump's early lead is thanks to Kentucky and Indiana.

    Live feed from Bloomberg:

     

    * * *

  • Donald's Trump Victory Odds Rise Above 95%

    To get a sense of what is going on with Hillary Clinton’s winning changes, look no further than the following chart courtesy of the NYT, which has seen Hillary’s victory odds plunge from 80% to less than 5%, as Trump’s, which were at 13% just a few hours ago, are now over 95%. Or, as some would say, game over.

    And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why you should never listen to forecasters.

  • Market Crashes As Traders Suddenly Worried Trump Can Win

    After some early shenanigans, the markets are turmoiling as Trump takes an unexpected lead in several battleground states including Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina

     

    The Peso plunged above 19/$, Dow Futures crashed below 18,000 and Gold is testing towards $1300…

     

    This massive puke has erased all the post-Comey gains (or losses in Gold) – Dow down 450 points, Peso crashed 9%!

     

    This is the biggest crash in the Peso since The 1994 Tequila Crisis…

  • Major Networks Confirm That Republicans Will Retain Control Of The House

    As expected, all the major networks are now projecting that Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives.  While it’s unclear exactly what the balance of power will ultimately be, it was always fairly unlikely that Democrats would be able to make up their 30-seat deficit.  Now, all eyes will turn to the key Senate races around the country where Democrats have a much better chance of taking over the majority.

    As The Hill points out, while many House races are still underway several seats have already flipped parties in Florida.

    Republican Neal Dunn defeated Democrat Walter Dartland in Florida’s 2nd district. That seat was vacated by retiring Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Fla.). The Florida Panhandle-area seat had become even more favorable to Republicans this year due to redistricting.

     

    In southeastern Florida, Republican Brian Mast prevailed over Democrat Randy Perkins. The seat had been vacated by Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.), who ran for Senate and lost earlier in the evening to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

     

    Democrats evened out those losses with two gains of their own in Florida.

     

    In district 10, former Orlando police chief Val Demings cruised to victory. Demings is the first woman and first African-American to represent the district. The district had previously been represented by Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), who decided to run for reelection this year in another district.

     

    Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist defeated Rep. David Jolly (R-Fla.) in a district that had become more Democratic thanks to redrawn boundaries. Jolly had originally run for Senate but decided to run for reelection after Rubio reversed course on keeping his seat.

    With Republicans now confirmed to to maintain control of the House the focus will be on how many seats Democrats are able to pick up overall as it will have a big impact on Paul Ryan’s chances of retaining the Speakership.  Per The Hill, Democrats would declare a victory if they’re able to pick up 20 seats or more while Republicans will be deemed the victors if they keep the lost seats below 10.

    If Democrats can gain as many as 20 seats, it will be seen as a significant victory. And if Republicans can keep Democratic gains to single digits, it would be seen as a victory for them.

     

    A smaller House GOP majority would make Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) job all the more difficult in the next Congress starting in January 2017.

    Meanwhile, as of right now, 158 of the 277 House seats up for grabs have been called with Republicans having a 32 seat advantage.

    House of Reps

     

    With that, all eyes turn to the Senate and Clinton vs. Trump which is looking more and more like it will be a long battle.

  • Massive Sinkhole Swallows Entire Intersection In Japan

    A gigantic sinkhole has opened up in the southwestern Japanese city of Fukuoka, swallowing an entire intersection of a 4-lane highway.  While the cause of the sinkhole is still under investigation, crews were working underground nearby to extend a subway tunnel and are thought to have triggered the collapse.

    No injuries or casualties were reported though over 100 buildings in the area were cut off the electricity grid.  Police have evacuated nearby buildings and closed the roads leading to the pit, which officials are reporting currently measures about 20 meters in diameter.

     

     

  • Your Complete Guide To Election Day And Night: What To Watch For And When

    It’s almost over: the most divisive, theatrical, dramatic and dirty presidential campaign will be in the history books in just a few hours, with more than 130 million Americans expected to cast ballots across 50 states. However, just winning the popular vote will be insufficient: indeed, it may well be that the popular-vote winner does not win the electoral college.

    So which states should one be looking at, and how long is the final day’s drama set to continue?

    For the benefit of the traders out there, last week we showed a primer from Citigroup explaining when traders can hope to go home on election evening, according to which it was “all about Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.”

    As Citi said, for traders hoping to capitalize on volatility next Tuesday as the election results come trickling in, it may all be over by early evening, at least if Trump loses. That is the calculation of Citi’s Steven Englander, who determined that if Trump loses either Florida or North Carolina or Ohio “the math doesn’t work and it tells us that the shift to Trump was not as pronounced as feared.”

    Those states close at 7:00 or 7:30 ET. As Citi adds, even if Trump loses by a little in one of these states, it becomes almost impossible for him to win. It would take a tidal wave in a couple of states that look firmly Democrat.  Citi helpfully added that “the odds that he loses, say a Florida or North Carolina, but wins a Pennsylvania do not seem high” at which point “vol collapses, MXN rallies and we go home early.”

    However, in a hint that tomorrow may be a very long night for traders – recall that Brexit was an all-nighter, which briefly saw ES halted limit down – the just released “no toss up” map from RCP based on the latest polling, shows Trump winning all three of these key states, and suddenly opening up the prospect not only for much more volatility, and yet another all-nighter, but potentially a Trump victory, something the market after today’s furious rally, is certainly not prepared for.

     

    In any event, no matter the fate of these three states, here is a full preview of tomorrow’s election night.

    The following chart from Morgan Stanley summarizes what times polls close for any given state as well as the number of electoral votes afforded to each:

    As the FT observes, this year’s election is being fought hardest in 10 states: Arizona (11 electoral college votes), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) and Virginia (13). Clinton starts with an advantage in the electoral college and can afford to lose traditional battlegrounds such as Florida and Ohio. But if that happens, falling short in states such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina could prove fatal to her presidential ambitions. On the other hand, as noted above, if Trump does not win in Florida and Ohio, his chances of victory will be non-existent. One key could be the size of the turnout of Latino voters in Arizona, Florida and Nevada, which have large Hispanic populations. Another could be whether African-American voters go to the polls at a high rate in North Carolina and Ohio.

     

    What to watch for during the day, courtesy of Bloomberg:

    • 12 am – Voting is already over in Dixville Notch, the New Hampshire hamlet that delivered a 5-5 tie in the 2012 race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. This time, Clinton received four votes, Trump two and Gary Johnson one, with a write-in vote for Mitt Romney, AP reported. Election Day has, finally, arrived.
    • 6 am – Polls are open in eight states, including battlegrounds Virginia and New Hampshire, as well as in New York, where Clinton votes at a public school in Chappaqua, Trump at a public school in Manhattan.
       
    • 8 am – VoteCastr, which aims to break Election Day’s “traditional information embargo,” goes live on Slate.com with estimates based on early voting in Florida, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa. Those are four of the eight states, representing 102 electoral votes, where VoteCastr is concentrating its data-crunching. More results, from more states, are made available in rolling fashion throughout the day.
    • 2 pm –  The VoteCastr/Slate partnership will probably have data from all the battleground states by now, reflecting broad election-day voting patterns.
    • 4 pm – Late afternoon is when leaks and rumors about exit polls may begin to spread, as they did in the last three presidential elections. (The actual results of exit polls are supposed to be closely held by the TV networks and the Associated Press until voting closes, state by state.) Trust these early unconfirmed reports at your own peril, as they indicated in 2004 that the next president would be named Kerry and that Romney was on track to carry Florida in 2012.

    And after markets close, here is the hour by hour guide to closing polls:

    • 6pm EST  — The first polls close in Indiana (11), home to Trump running mate Mike Pence, the state’s governor, and Kentucky (8). Both states are heavily Republican and likely to be carried by Mr Trump
    • 7pm EST — Polls close in the battleground states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). As well as Georgia (16), South Carolina (9) and Vermont (3). The counting of ballots across the nation will go on well into Wednesday. You can, however, expect US media outlets to begin calling the races in safe Democratic and Republican states such as Kentucky, Vermont and South Carolina. But do not expect early calls in Florida or Virginia. In 2012, a winner was not declared in Florida until days after the election. A result in Virginia was not declared until after midnight.
    • 7:30pm EST  — Polls close in two more important states: Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15). They also shut in West Virginia (5), where Trump is heavily favoured. Trump has done a lot of campaigning in Ohio, hoping to capitalise on the appeal of his protectionist trade policies in the rust belt state. In 2012, Mitt Romney had been declared the winner in four of the five states called before 8pm. President Barack Obama had won only Vermont.
    • 8pm EST — Things start to heat up. Polls close in the crucial states of Pennsylvania (20) and Michigan (16), and in Alabama (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), the District of Columbia (3), Illinois (20), Kansas (6), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), New Jersey (14), Oklahoma (7), Rhode Island (4) and Tennessee (11).  Expect a flurry of declarations in safe Republican and Democratic states. If Mrs Clinton does not take Pennsylvania it will be a big blow — especially because she chose to spend the last night of her campaign in Philadelphia alongside her husband and the Obamas. In 2012 it took almost two hours for Obama to be named the winner in the state. It was the first real battleground to be called. Maine is the first of two states that do not allocate their electoral college votes on a winner-takes-all system. Maine and Nebraska allocate some of their electoral votes by congressional district.
    • 9pm EST — The polls close in Colorado (9), Wisconsin (10) and Texas (38). They also shut in Louisiana (8), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (5), New Mexico (5), New York (29), South Dakota (3) and Wyoming (10).  Look for early calls for Clinton in the population-heavy states of New York and New Jersey where she is firmly favoured. 
    • 10pm EST — Polls are closing in western states Arizona (11), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Nevada (6) and Utah (6) as well as the mid-western farm state of Iowa (6). In 2012, this is when Mr Obama began really piling up the victories. Although it has a long tradition of voting Republican in presidential races, Arizona has been seen as more of a battleground this year. Utah is also interesting this year as conservative Mormon Evan McMullin has been polling well in the state and could even win it. 
    • 11pm EST — The polls close in the biggest electoral prize on the map — solidly Democratic California (55) — as well as Washington state (12), Oregon (7) and North Dakota (3).
    • 1am EST — Polls close in Alaska (3) and Hawaii (4).

    * * *

    Time for the concession speeches?

    In 2008 and 2012, John McCain and Mitt Romney each gave nationally televised concession speeches shortly after midnight eastern time. 

    But what if there is no winner by the end of the night? In the event that neither candidate gets to 270, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will decide who the next president should be.

    * * *

    What are the main factors to watch? 

    With polls showing voters having negative opinions of both major candidates, one of the key factors on election day could be the enthusiasm of their bases. If black, female, Latino and young voters do not turn out in significant numbers, it could represent a blow to the Clinton camp. Likewise, if white working class voters do not go to the polls in significant numbers it would hurt Mr Trump.

    Turnout among African-American voters looks likely to be lower than it was in 2008 and 2012. But Trump’s provocative immigration policies mean a growing Hispanic electorate is expected to vote heavily against him.

    What other races should I keep an eye on? 

    Americans will also be voting for 34 of the US Senate’s 100 seats and for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives. Twelve governorships are up for grabs this year. The big question beyond the presidency is what will happen in the Republican-controlled Congress. A good night for Democrats would see them win five seats and regain control of the Senate (four if Mrs Clinton wins as that would mean vice-president Tim Kaine would cast the deciding vote) while also whittling down the Republicans’ 30-seat majority in the 435-seat House. It is extremely unlikely Democrats will regain control of the House.

    * * *

    Here is Goldman’s own guide to election night:

    • Poll closing times and the estimated time each state will be called: we note the time that polls close in each state. For states in multiple time zones, we include the latest poll closing time. We also include a rough estimate of when media outlets will announce a winner of the presidential race in each state, based on the polling margin (close votes take much longer to call).
    • Prediction market probabilities: we note the implied probability of a Democratic win in each state for the presidential and Senate contests. Probabilities are taken from Predictit.org as of 2pm ET on Nov. 7.

    * * *

    Finally, here is an election survival guide from Credit Suisse.

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Today’s News 8th November 2016

  • Vote As If Your Life Depended On It… Because It Does

    Authored by Eric Zuesse,

    Here’s why:

    Hillary has repeatedly said: “We should also work with the coalition and the neighbors to impose no-fly zones that will stop Assad from slaughtering civilians and the opposition from the air. Opposition forces  on the ground, with material support from the coalition, could then help create safe areas where Syrians could remain in the country, rather than fleeing toward Europe."

    This would mean that U.S. fighter-jets and missiles would be shooting down the fighter-jets and missiles of the Syrian government over Syria, and would also be shooting down those of Russia. The Syrian government invited Russia in, as its protector; the U.S. is no protector but an invader against Syria’s legitimate government, the Ba’athist government, led by Bashar al-Assad. The CIA has been trying ever since 1949 to overthrow Syria’s Ba’athist government — the only remaining non-sectarian government in the Middle East other than the current Egyptian government. The U.S. supports Jihadists who demand Sharia law, and they are trying to overthrow and replace Syria’s institutionally secular government. For the U.S. to impose a no-fly zone anywhere in Syria would mean that the U.S. would be at war against Russia over Syria’s skies.

    Whichever side loses that conventional air-war would then have to choose whether to surrender, or instead to use nuclear weapons against the other side’s homeland, in order for it to avoid surrendering. That’s nuclear war between Russia and the United States.

    Would Putin surrender? Would Hillary? Would neither? If neither does, then nuclear war will be the result.

    Here are the two most extensive occasions in which Hillary has stated her position on this:

    To the Council on Foreign Relations, on 19 November 2015:

    We should also work with the coalition and the neighbors to impose no-fly zones that will stop Assad from slaughtering civilians and the opposition from the air. Opposition forces on the ground, with material support from the coalition, could then help create safe areas where Syrians could remain in the country, rather than fleeing toward Europe.

     

    This combined approach would help enable the opposition to retake the remaining stretch of the Turkish border from ISIS, choking off its supply lines. It would also give us new leverage in the diplomatic process that Secretary Kerry is pursuing. …

     

    QUESTION: When you were secretary of state, you tended to agree a great deal with the then-Secretary of Defense Bob Gates. Gates was opposed to a no-fly zone in Syria; thought it was an act of war that was risky and dangerous. This seems to me the major difference right now between what the president — what Obama’s administration is doing and what you’re proposing.

     

    Do you not — why do you disagree with Bob Gates on this?

     

    CLINTON: Well, I — I believe that the no-fly zone is merited and can be implemented, again, in a coalition, not an American-only no-fly zone. I fully respect Bob and his knowledge about the difficulties of implementing a no-fly zone. But if you look at where we are right now, we have to try to clear the air of the bombing attacks that are still being carried out to a limited extent by the Syrian military, now supplemented by the Russian air force.

     

    And I think we have a chance to do that now. We have a no-fly zone over northern Iraq for years to protect the Kurds. And it proved to be successful, not easy — it never is — but I think now is the time for us to revisit those plans.

     

    I also believe, as I said in the speech, that if we begin the conversation about a no-fly zone, something that, you know, Turkey discussed with me back when I was secretary of state in 2012, it will confront a lot of our partners in the region and beyond about what they’re going to do. And it can give us leverage in the discussions that Secretary Kerry is carrying on right now.

     

    So I see it as both a strategic opportunity on the ground, and an opportunity for leverage in the peace negotiations. …

     

    QUESTION: Jim Ziren (ph), Madam Secretary. Hi. Back to the no- fly zone. are you advocating a no-fly zone over the entire country or a partial no-fly zone over an enclave where refugees might find a safe haven? And in the event of either, do you foresee see you might be potentially provoking the Russians?

     

    CLINTON: I am advocating the second, a no-fly zone principally over northern Syria close to the Turkish (ph) border, cutting off the supply lines, trying to provide some safe refuges for refugees so they don’t have to leave Syria, creating a safe space away from the barrel bombs and the other bombardments by the Syrians. And I would certainly expect to and hope to work with the Russians to be able to do that. [She expects Putin to join America’s bombing of Syria’s government and troops and shooting-down of Russia’s planes in Syria, but no question was raised about this.] …

     

    To have a swath of territory that could be a safe zone … for Syrians so they wouldn’t have to leave but also for humanitarian relief, … would give us this extra leverage that I’m looking for in the diplomatic pursuits with Russia with respect to the political outcome in Syria.

    During a debate against Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries:

    Hillary Clinton, in a debate with Bernie on 19 December 2015, argued for her proposal that the U.S. impose in Syria a “no-fly zone” where Russians were dropping bombs on the imported jihadists who have been trying to overthrow and replace Assad: "I am advocating the no-fly zone both because I think it would help us on the ground to protect Syrians; I'm also advocating it because I think it gives us some leverage in our conversations with Russia.” She said there that allowing the jihadists to overthrow Assad “would help us on the ground to protect Syrians,” somehow; and, also, that, somehow, shooting down Russia’s planes in Syria (the “no-fly zone”) "gives us some leverage in our conversations with Russia.”

    Bernie Sanders’s response to that was: "I worry too much that Secretary Clinton is too much into regime change and a little bit too aggressive without knowing what the unintended consequences might be.” He didn’t mention nuclear war as one of them.

    The “no-fly zone” policy is one of three policies she supports that would likely produce nuclear war; she supports all of them, not merely the “no-fly zone.”

    Hillary Clinton has never been asked “What would you do if Russia refuses to stop its flights in Syria?” Donald Trump has said nothing about the proposal for a no-fly zone (other than “I want to sit back and see what happens”), because most Americans support that idea, and he’s not bright enough to take her on about it and ask her that question. Probably, if he were supportive of it, he’d have said so — in which case it wouldn’t still be an issue in this election. Trump muffed his chance — which he has had on several occasions. But clearly he, unlike her, has not committed himself on this matter.

    Hillary Clinton is obviously convinced that the U.S. would win a nuclear war against Russia. The question for voters is whether they’re willing to bet their lives that she is correct about that, and that even if the U.S. ‘wins’, only Russia and not also the U.S. (and the world) would be destroyed if the U.S. nuclear-attacks Russia.

    Every other issue in this election pales by comparison to the no-fly-zone issue, which is virtually ignored, in favor of issues that are trivial by comparison. But a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for nuclear war against Russia, regardless of whether or not the voters know this. And a vote for Trump is a vote for the unknown. Could the unknown be even worse than Hillary Clinton? If so, would it be so only in relatively trivial ways?

    This election should be about Hillary Clinton, not about Donald Trump.

    *  *  *

    Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

     

  • Your Complete Guide To Election Night: What To Watch For And When

    It’s almost over: the most divisive, theatrical, dramatic and dirty presidential campaign will be in the history books by this time tomorrow, with more than 130 million Americans expected to cast ballots across 50 states. However, just winning the popular vote will be insufficient: indeed, it may well be that the popular-vote winner does not win the electoral college.

    So which states should one be looking at, and how long is the final day’s drama set to continue?

    For the benefit of the traders out there, last week we showed a primer from Citigroup explaining when traders can hope to go home on election evening, according to which it was “all about Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.”

    As Citi said, for traders hoping to capitalize on volatility next Tuesday as the election results come trickling in, it may all be over by early evening, at least if Trump loses. That is the calculation of Citi’s Steven Englander, who determined that if Trump loses either Florida or North Carolina or Ohio “the math doesn’t work and it tells us that the shift to Trump was not as pronounced as feared.”

    Those states close at 7:00 or 7:30 ET. As Citi adds, even if Trump loses by a little in one of these states, it becomes almost impossible for him to win. It would take a tidal wave in a couple of states that look firmly Democrat.  Citi helpfully added that “the odds that he loses, say a Florida or North Carolina, but wins a Pennsylvania do not seem high” at which point “vol collapses, MXN rallies and we go home early.”

    However, in a hint that tomorrow may be a very long night for traders – recall that Brexit was an all-nighter, which briefly saw ES halted limit down – the just released “no toss up” map from RCP based on the latest polling, shows Trump winning all three of these key states, and suddenly opening up the prospect not only for much more volatility, and yet another all-nighter, but potentially a Trump victory, something the market after today’s furious rally, is certainly not prepared for.

     

     

    In any event, no matter the fate of these three states, here is a full preview of tomorrow’s election night.

    The following chart from Morgan Stanley summarizes what times polls close for any given state as well as the number of electoral votes afforded to each: .

    As the FT observes, this year’s election is being fought hardest in 10 states: Arizona (11 electoral college votes), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) and Virginia (13). Clinton starts with an advantage in the electoral college and can afford to lose traditional battlegrounds such as Florida and Ohio. But if that happens, falling short in states such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina could prove fatal to her presidential ambitions. On the other hand, as noted above, if Trump does not win in Florida and Ohio, his chances of victory will be non-existent. One key could be the size of the turnout of Latino voters in Arizona, Florida and Nevada, which have large Hispanic populations. Another could be whether African-American voters go to the polls at a high rate in North Carolina and Ohio.

     

    Here are the key events by hour, and when traders will have to be particularly careful

    • 6pm EST  — The first polls close in Indiana (11), home to Trump running mate Mike Pence, the state’s governor, and Kentucky (8). Both states are heavily Republican and likely to be carried by Mr Trump
    • 7pm EST — Polls close in the battleground states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). As well as Georgia (16), South Carolina (9) and Vermont (3). The counting of ballots across the nation will go on well into Wednesday. You can, however, expect US media outlets to begin calling the races in safe Democratic and Republican states such as Kentucky, Vermont and South Carolina. But do not expect early calls in Florida or Virginia. In 2012, a winner was not declared in Florida until days after the election. A result in Virginia was not declared until after midnight.
    • 7:30pm EST  — Polls close in two more important states: Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15). They also shut in West Virginia (5), where Trump is heavily favoured. Trump has done a lot of campaigning in Ohio, hoping to capitalise on the appeal of his protectionist trade policies in the rust belt state. In 2012, Mitt Romney had been declared the winner in four of the five states called before 8pm. President Barack Obama had won only Vermont.
    • 8pm EST — Things start to heat up. Polls close in the crucial states of Pennsylvania (20) and Michigan (16), and in Alabama (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), the District of Columbia (3), Illinois (20), Kansas (6), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), New Jersey (14), Oklahoma (7), Rhode Island (4) and Tennessee (11).  Expect a flurry of declarations in safe Republican and Democratic states. If Mrs Clinton does not take Pennsylvania it will be a big blow — especially because she chose to spend the last night of her campaign in Philadelphia alongside her husband and the Obamas. In 2012 it took almost two hours for Obama to be named the winner in the state. It was the first real battleground to be called. Maine is the first of two states that do not allocate their electoral college votes on a winner-takes-all system. Maine and Nebraska allocate some of their electoral votes by congressional district.
    • 9pm EST — The polls close in Colorado (9), Wisconsin (10) and Texas (38). They also shut in Louisiana (8), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (5), New Mexico (5), New York (29), South Dakota (3) and Wyoming (10).  Look for early calls for Clinton in the population-heavy states of New York and New Jersey where she is firmly favoured. 
    • 10pm EST — Polls are closing in western states Arizona (11), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Nevada (6) and Utah (6) as well as the mid-western farm state of Iowa (6). In 2012, this is when Mr Obama began really piling up the victories. Although it has a long tradition of voting Republican in presidential races, Arizona has been seen as more of a battleground this year. Utah is also interesting this year as conservative Mormon Evan McMullin has been polling well in the state and could even win it. 
    • 11pm EST — The polls close in the biggest electoral prize on the map — solidly Democratic California (55) — as well as Washington state (12), Oregon (7) and North Dakota (3).
    • Midnight EST — Polls close in Alaska (3) and Hawaii (4).

    * * *

    Time for the concession speeches?

    In 2008 and 2012, John McCain and Mitt Romney each gave nationally televised concession speeches shortly after midnight eastern time. 

    But what if there is no winner by the end of the night? In the event that neither candidate gets to 270, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will decide who the next president should be.

    * * *

    What are the main factors to watch? 

    With polls showing voters having negative opinions of both major candidates, one of the key factors on election day could be the enthusiasm of their bases. If black, female, Latino and young voters do not turn out in significant numbers, it could represent a blow to the Clinton camp. Likewise, if white working class voters do not go to the polls in significant numbers it would hurt Mr Trump.

    Turnout among African-American voters looks likely to be lower than it was in 2008 and 2012. But Trump’s provocative immigration policies mean a growing Hispanic electorate is expected to vote heavily against him.

    What other races should I keep an eye on? 

    Americans will also be voting for 34 of the US Senate’s 100 seats and for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives. Twelve governorships are up for grabs this year. The big question beyond the presidency is what will happen in the Republican-controlled Congress. A good night for Democrats would see them win five seats and regain control of the Senate (four if Mrs Clinton wins as that would mean vice-president Tim Kaine would cast the deciding vote) while also whittling down the Republicans’ 30-seat majority in the 435-seat House. It is extremely unlikely Democrats will regain control of the House.

    * * *

    Finally, here is Goldman’s own guide to election night:

    • Poll closing times and the estimated time each state will be called: we note the time that polls close in each state. For states in multiple time zones, we include the latest poll closing time. We also include a rough estimate of when media outlets will announce a winner of the presidential race in each state, based on the polling margin (close votes take much longer to call).
    • Prediction market probabilities: we note the implied probability of a Democratic win in each state for the presidential and Senate contests. Probabilities are taken from Predictit.org as of 2pm ET on Nov. 7.

  • Trading Tomorrow's Main Event: "Keep It Simple" And Watch This Indicator

    "Close your books. Take out a piece of paper. It’s time for a pop quiz," says Bloomberg's Richard Breslow. "What were the market-moving news items from last week?"

    Amazing that it takes some work to remember that there were four big central bank meetings, a raft of PMIs, let alone a U.S. non-farm payroll report. When we look back, probably the only thing we’ll remember was the Article 50 decision in the U.K. And maybe one tracker poll for the bonus question.
    I’ll bet this week will be easier for market historians to pinpoint on the economic time line. It’s rarely the regularly scheduled events that lastingly move the needle. No matter how much we build up the expectation.

    And then we can begin the latest test of all the “what to expect next year” theories. Word of caution, the shelf-life of these fun but mostly futile exercises gets shorter every year. And the cost of being wrong bigger. No death by a thousand cuts here. Let’s blow them out in January and get on with the thrust and parry of trading revolving themes.

    One interesting event from last week, is that we saw futures pricing of a December rate-hike creep up; at the same time it was wilting for the year ahead.

    Rising risk premium? Safe bet. Clever Fed messaging on low and slow? Well, we’ve had a one-two on the “running hot” question from Yellen and Fischer. Actually, a lot more hedging going on than we credited.

    Rate expectations for next year are a big deal and not just for STIRT traders. The dollar will care and, by extension, commodities (read oil). The yield curve will bend to it.

    Coming out of tomorrow, watch where 2017 futures reprice. It will help decide how aggressively you might consider chasing or fading the initial reactions.

    If you’re going to trade the event. Keep it as simple as possible. We saw, from last week through this morning, how traders will likely react depending on the outcome. Down the road will be a chance to re-evaluate the prospects for global trade, geopolitics and latest forecast meme driving markets over the course of the year.

  • NATO Places 300,000 Troops On "High Alert" In Readiness For Confrontation With Russia

    Submitted by Alex Christoforou of The Duran

    NATO a preparing a military force of up to 300,000 personnel, capable of being deployed within just two months to attack Russia.

    As the world remains fixated on the outcome of Tuesday’s US elections, NATO continues its aggressive troop build up around Russia.

    With each passing day, the constant NATO activity is looking more and more like a preparation for full scale conflict with Russia. Something that would become a very real possibility should Hillary Clinton make it to the White House.


    Nato soldiers stand on a pontoon bridge constructed across the Vistula river
    in Poland during the NATO Anaconda-16 exercise earlier this year

    Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg announced that NATO member nations are at this very moment putting hundreds of thousands of troops in a state of high alert, in an effort to deter the fantasy threat from Russia. Stoltenberg said…

    “We have seen Russia being much more active in many different ways.”

     

    “We have seen a more assertive Russia implementing a substantial military build-up over many years; tripling defence spending since 2000 in real terms; developing new military capabilities; exercising their forces and using military force against neighbours.”

     

    “We have also seen Russia using propaganda in Europe among NATO allies and that is exactly the reason why NATO is responding. We are responding with the biggest reinforcement of our collective defence since the end of the Cold War.”

    The UK’s Examiner reports

    Adam Thomson, the outgoing permanent representative to Nato, estimates that at present, it would take the military alliance 180 days to deploy a force of 300,000, and that speeding up this rate is of top importance.

     

    The measures come in response to Russia flexing its military might abroad, allegedly conducting cyber attacks on Washington and holding nuclear war drills at home.

     

    Last week, Moscow was seen as deliberately antagonising Nato by sending hundreds of paratroopers to a Serbian airbase despite Nato holding disaster relief exercises just 150 miles away in Montenegro.

     

    Putin’s decision to hold military drills so close to Nato’s emergency exercises in Montenegro – which went ahead despite Moscow’s drills – was seen as a brazen stand-off between both sides.

     

    Igor Sutyagin, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, said: “Russia wants to show that it can intimidate NATO… and NATO is saying to Russia, ‘If you show up, we’ll be there as well’.”

     

    Meanwhile, Russian authorities have been accused of attempting to pervert the democratic process of the US presidential election by hacking into Democrat emails and sharing findings with vigilante publishers such as WikiLeaks and DC Leaks.

    In summary, NATO justifies its military build up around Russia as a response to:

    • Alleged Russian cyber attacks to influence the US elections…allegations made by the honest and trustworthy Clinton campaign, and half heartedly commented on by US Intelligence Czar James Clapper, a man who lied under oath to the American public.
    • Russia’s military exercises in its own country. I repeat, military exercises within its own borders.
    • Russia sending hundreds of paratroopers to long time ally Serbia.
    • “Russia using propaganda in Europe among NATO allies”. Whatever that means? Its cryptic and nonsensical…and of course we know the US and NATO allies never ever engage in propaganda against Russia, or other nations for that matter.

  • China Trade Data Disappoints (Again) Despite Plunging Yuan

    Chinese imports have now declined for 23 of the last 24 months (falling 1.4% YoY in USD terms) and for 18 of the last 20 months, despite a devaluing yuan, exports have declined YoY (-7.3% YoY in October). In both USD and Yuan terms, trade data disappointed across the board suggesting a global economy that is far from as exuberant as recent PMIs suggest.

     

    As Bloomberg notes, a depreciation of about 9 percent in the yuan since August 2015 has cushioned the blow from tepid global demand, but failed to provide any sustained boost to shipments. Rising input costs and surging wages bills have flattened profit margins for exporters to the point where many can no longer discount and are mulling price increases, according to interviews at the Canton Fair last month.

    “We expect export growth to remain sluggish over the coming quarters due to a weak global economic environment and rising costs for Chinese goods,” BMI Research wrote in a report ahead of the data release. “The slow growth in the global economy will continue to be the major factor weighing on China’s export sector over the coming quarters.”

    But what may be most concerning, especially to oil bulls, is that it appears China’s oil SPR is getting full as China – the world’s second largest oil consumer – imported only 28.79m tons of crude last month, the lowest since January, according to the General Administration of Customs, equivalent to 6.81mmbpd. The October drop was 12.9% m/m, a huge drop and a big concern for OPEC which is suddenly seeing demand melt before its eyes.

    Some other statistics:

    • Oil product imports at 1.76m tons; exports at 4.07m tons
    • Coal imports at 21.58m tons, lowest since July
    • Natural gas imports at at 3.82m tons

    In short, China’s trade – aside from the recent burst in coal imports – is once again slowing down rapidly, and what makes it worse is that this is taking place shortly after another massive credit impulse and near-record fiscal stimulus was created to stimulate the economy.

     

    If China’s domestic economic weakness once again spills over to the rest of the world as it did in 2015, then good bye Fedrate hike plans.

  • Judge Napolitano: "Comey Knows His FBI Days Are Numbered" No Matter Who Wins Election

    Submitted by Josephn Jankowski via PlanetFreeWill.com,

    Former New Jersey Superior Court Judge and Senior Judicial Analyst for Fox News Andrew Napolitano believes that the way in which FBI Director James Comey handled the re-opening and closure of the investigation into the emails of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will tarnish the reputation of the FBI and limit the time the current director has in his position no matter who is elected on Nov. 8.

    On Sunday, FBI director Comey sent a letter sent to House and Senate committee leaders stating that agents had completed their review of all messages to or from Clinton on a laptop seized last month from former Rep. Anthony Wiener and that nothing worthy of prosecution was found.

    “There’s nothing wrong with the FBI investigating (Hillary), absolutely should investigate her where ever the investigation takes her,” Judge Napolitano explained to Fox News’ Bill Hemmer on Monday. “But to have given a snapshot of that investigation ten days ago, and then another snapshot of it’s closure last night, all of this within two weeks of the election, puts a thumb on the political scale that will tarnish the FBI’s reputation and in my opinion, most respectfully, prevents Jim Comey from staying on as FBI director no matter which of the two candidates are elected tomorrow.”

    When asked to clarify if he believes that Comey’s days are numbered as FBI Director, the Judge respond, “Yes, and I’m saying he knows his days are numbered and he is now just doing the best he can to burnish the reputation of the FBI, which I believe he loves, and to burnish his own personal reputation.”

    It came as a shock to many that the FBI was able to review the 650,000 emails from the laptop of disgraced Anthony Wiener, the estranged husband of longtime Clinton aide Huma Abedin, in just a matter of days. Many believe that the investigation may have been extremely partial considering it took the FBI over a year to review some 50,000 Clinton emails during the initial investigation.

    “You can’t review 650,000 emails in eight days,” Donald Trump said Sunday in a campaign speech in Michigan hours after Comey’s letter to congress made headlines.

    Judge Napolitano was able to give some insight into how the FBI went through the 650,000 emails.

    “They devised software that would allow 650,000 emails to be examined digitally for certain keywords, phrases and references, which would draw out the ones they needed to read fully,” the Judge said. “They did that 24/7 for eight days and concluded yesterday afternoon – they started this Sunday afternoon a week ago yesterday when the search warrant was signed – that there is nothing in here that makes the case against her stronger.”

    Napolitano predicts that if Trump manages to take the White House the DOJ will continue to pursue an investigation into Clinton pertaining to the Clinton Foundation and the allegations of pay-to-play public corruption.

    As for Hillary, if elected the Judge believes she will “begin her presidency as wounded as Rich Nixon did as he began his second in January of 73′” and would still have to deal with House Republicans investigating her.

  • Chinese Capital Outflows Send FX Reserves To Lowest Since 2011

    Overnight, China reported that the PBOC’s FX reserves fell another US$46bn to US$3.121 trillion in October as the central banks struggled to offset the impact of accelerating capital outflows, a bigger drop than the consensus estimate of US$34bn, triple the official September decline of US$19bn (recall that according to Goldman, the true FX outflow in recent months has been far greater), and the biggest drop since January. The October decline brought China’s total reserves the lowest amount since 2011.

    As we have shown previously, a separate dataset called “PBOC’s FX position”, which shows the amount of PBOC’s FX assets at book value and is usually released around the middle of the month, should provide a cross-check on PBOC’s FX sales net of valuation effects.

    As Bloomberg notes, the data come amid a period of renewed weakness for China’s currency. The yuan fell 1.53 percent last month, the most since a devaluation in August last year that shook investor confidence and ignited global market turmoil. Policy makers were suspected of propping up the exchange rate in the weeks leading up to a Group of 20 meeting in September and before the yuan’s entry into the International Monetary Fund’s reserves on Oct. 1 – and then reducing support after exports plunged the most in seven months. The currency fell to a six-year low of 6.7856 a dollar on Oct. 28.

    The chart below which correlated China’s outflows with the value of the Yuan suggests that either the currency is temporarily undervalued, or that the real amount of Chinese reserves, which may be unreported by the PBOC to prevent an even greater retail outflow scramble, may be as much as half a trillion dollars less than what has been officially reported.

    And with Chinese capital outflows speculated as soon becoming the biggest risk factor to global financial stability, in a repeat of late 2015, once the chaos surrounding the US presidential election is over, below are some economist reactions to the reported number:

    • “The yuan was sprinting all the way to approach 6.8 in October, which may have prompted the PBOC to sell some reserves to stabilize the market,” said Gao Qi, a Singapore-based foreign-exchange strategist at Scotiabank. “Capital outflows will continue, the only questions is how fast, and that depends on the dollar’s move.”
    • “Capital outflow pressures will be sustained at least for the coming months,” said Frederik Kunze, chief China economist at Norddeutsche Landesbank in Hanover, Germany. “Growing anxiety with regard to the soundness of the Chinese financial markets and the fear of a property bubble have to be seen in this context.”
    • “The number indicates relatively light intervention by PBOC during the month,” said Ding Shuang, head of Greater China economic research at Standard Chartered Plc. in Hong Kong. Most of the drop comes from valuation effects, he said.
    • Faster yuan depreciation against the dollar, higher interbank interest rates, and PBOC liquidity injections via open market operations “pointed to continued capital outflows in October,” said Robin Xing, an economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.

    Should Clinton win tomorrow, and push the USD even higher on expectations of a December Fed rate hike, many strategists believe that the next stop for the Yuan will be to drop to a level somewhere in the vicinity of USDCNY 7.00.

    And speaking of tomorrow’s election outcome, and how it may impact Chinese risk assets, here is Bank of America with how 4 distinct election scenarios can impact Chinese equities:

    • Best scenario for China equities: Clinton win/split congress

    If Hillary Clinton wins with a split Congress, we suggest buying short-duration HSCEI calls to position for a potential relief rally (likely to be brief); if it’s a Clinton sweep, buying environmental sectors and exporters, selling Rmb-sensitive sectors such as property, financials and commodities; if Donald Trump win/split Congress, buying One-Belt One-Road (OBOR) sectors, selling Chinese exporters to the US and Rmb-sensitive sectors; if a Trump sweep, buying HSCEI puts and domestic service sectors, selling environmental, Rmb-sensitive sectors and exporters in general; whoever wins, buying defense stocks as regional tension rises

    • Polls say Clinton win/split Congress most likely

    For more details, please see US Election: four scenarios, four lists by Savita Subramanian on Oct 28. This is arguably the best outcome for China equities in our view because the status quo may largely be maintained and the absence of a clean-sweep may mean only moderate upward pressure on USD. In addition, as the US election uncertainty is largely removed, risky assets, including China equities, may stage a relief rally.

    • A Clinton sweep could hurt China equities

    As David Woo argued, a clean sweep, either by Clinton or Trump, would be bullish for the USD. Such strength would come at a particularly sensitive time for Rmb devaluation expectations, thus, may trigger significant capital outflow from China and put significant pressure on Rmb, by our assessment. Separately, given the Democrats’ emphasis on environmental issues and the global nature of such issues, we expect related sectors in China to benefit as well.

    • A Trump win/split Congress: impact on Rmb more uncertain

    On the campaign trail, Trump wanted to label China as a currency manipulator & impose a 45% tariff on Chinese exports (Helen Qiao, Asia: trade tensions either way, Oct 24). This is behind our strategy-level call to sell Chinese exporters with heavy US exposure (Table 1, stocks with the highest US revenue ratio). To counter, China may speed up its OBOR program (One Belt & One Road, Great Expectations, 16 Mar, 2015). The impact on Rmb/USD rate is more uncertain – the Chinese govt may strengthen the soft peg to ease the trade tension or it may allow more flexibility on the exchange rate to stand up to the US or to reduce the chance of being labeled a manipulator. On balance, we think the latter is more likely due to the constraint imposed by capital outflow.

    • A Trump sweep is the worst scenario for China stocks

    In our view, a Trump sweep may mean a very strong USD, a much reduced risk appetite and a major sell-off of offshore China stocks by global investors. It could also blunt globalization as it loses its biggest champion, hence our selling of exporters broadly (Table 6 in our 2016 Year-Ahead lists the top exporters). If China’s growth turns inward, we expect domestically-oriented sectors, especially services, to benefit the most.

  • Florida, Florida, Florida: National Race A Dead-Heat As Polls Swing In Toss-Up States

    As the 2016 Presidential campaign comes to a frenetic end, with both candidates frantically hopping from rally to rally across several key swing states, RealClearPolitics made two significant shifts in its “no toss up states” electoral college map.

    1. Shifting Florida from Clinton to Trump as the latest Trafalgar Group poll showed Trump up by 4 points…

     

    2. Shifting New Hampshire from Trump to Clinton as the latest Emerson poll showed Clinton up by 1 point…

     

    Which left the electoral map in an almost dead-heat on election eve…

     

    As The Hill reports, the Democratic nominee will enter Tuesday with several different paths to the White House, and Clinton wasn’t timid about showing her assurance when asked about the challenge of unifying the nation after a bitterly divisive presidential campaign. 

    “I think I have some work to do to bring the country together,” Clinton said. “I really do want to be the president for everybody.”

     

    Clinton held a lead of around 3 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics national average. Her margin had been twice as large in mid-October. Nonetheless, her lead has actually ticked upward from a recent low in the past few days.

    Trump insisted that he was going to win, pointing to his tens of thousands of enthusiastic supporters. Lines for Trump rallies snaked around the grounds even for last-minute stops in states that are normally safe for Democrats in presidential elections, such as Minnesota.

    “The whole psyche will change tomorrow,” Trump said at a Monday rally in Florida. 

    While Clinton betrayed no nervousness, her campaign lavished attention on Michigan, a seemingly safe state for the Democrat that hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988. 

    President Obama spoke in Ann Arbor, while the candidate herself returned for the second time since Friday for a rally in Grand Rapids. Those efforts suggest the Clinton campaign sees challenges in the Wolverine State, which Obama won by 10 points in 2012. 

    A Trump victory in Michigan would upend the electoral map, suggesting that Clinton could be in real trouble, with demographically comparable states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio also in play.

    “She’s defending states she thought she had locked up months ago,” Trump deputy campaign manager David Bossie said on a conference call with reporters. “A late surge of enthusiasm for Donald Trump is forcing her to make an unanticipated last-minute defense of these states, particularly Pennsylvania and Michigan.”

    Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook dismissed Trump’s efforts, calling his blue-state strategy a desperate end-of-game ploy with no real muscle behind it.

    “I think he needed to get those into play much earlier,” Mook said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

     

    “I’m not concerned that he’s spending so much time there at the end because he didn’t build a ground game.”

  • "I Just Lost All Faith In Our Deeply Corrupt Legal System And In The Rule Of Law In The US"

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    The FBI just gave Hillary Clinton the biggest gift in the history of presidential politics. Two days before the election the FBI has announced that they are ending their investigation into Hillary Clinton’s mishandling of classified information. After reviewing the emails that were found on electronic devices owned by Huma Abedin and Anthony Weiner, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress telling them that “we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.” That means that there will be no indictment, and the path is now clear for Hillary Clinton to become the next president of the United States on Tuesday unless an election miracle happens.

    These days it is unusual for a news story to hit me on a deeply emotional level, but this one sure did. When the FBI originally announced that they were renewing this investigation, it gave me a glimmer of hope that there may be a little bit of integrity left in our legal system.

    But after yesterday’s announcement I have lost all faith in our deeply corrupt system of justice. America has become a lawless nation, and the rule of law is completely dead in this country.

    Yes, it is true that those of us in the general public do not know what was contained in those emails, and Director Comey says that nothing significant was found in them

    In a letter to lawmakers, Comey said the FBI is standing by its original findings, made in July, that Clinton should not be prosecuted for her handling of classified information over email as secretary of State.

     

    “The FBI investigative team has been working around the clock to process and review a large volume of emails from a device obtained in connection with an unrelated criminal investigation,” Comey said in the letter. “During that process we reviewed all of the communications that were to or from Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of State,” Comey wrote. “Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.”

    But of course the truth is that the FBI already had more than enough to go after Clinton based on what they discovered the first time around.

    In the world of national security, if you transmit a single classified document via a channel that is unsecured, you will lose your security clearance in a heartbeat and it is quite likely that you will be prosecuted and sent to prison for mishandling classified information.

    In fact, two different members of the U.S. military were recently convicted for doing precisely that

    Just last month, Bryan Nishimura, a California Naval reservist, was sentenced to two years’ probation and a $7,500 fine after he pleaded guilty to removing classified material and downloading it to a personal electronic device. The FBI found no evidence he planned to distribute the material.

     

    Last year, Bronze Star recipient and combat veteran Chief Petty Officer Lyle White pleaded guilty to storing classified documents on a nonsecure hard drive in Virginia. He received a suspended 60-day sentence and a suspended $10,000 fine in return for the plea. White said the information was for training purposes to study and that he had no intent to communicate with anyone.

    Neither of those individuals intended to mishandle classified information, and they certainly never intended to share it.

    But they were both convicted anyway.

    So what makes Hillary Clinton any different?

    During the initial investigation, the FBI found 113 emails that contained classified information

    Clinton had repeatedly said she did not have any classified emails on her server, but the results of the FBI investigation show that claim was incorrect.

     

    Of the tens of thousands of emails investigators reviewed, 113 contained classified information, and three of those had classification markers. FBI Director James Comey has said Clinton should have known that some of the 113 were classified, but others she might have understandably missed.

    And I would be willing to bet that the FBI found some more classified emails that they had not seen previously among the 650,000 or so that they reviewed for this renewed investigation.

    But it doesn’t matter now. Hillary Clinton is free as a bird even though she mishandled 113 classified emails, and it looks like she is going to become the next president of the United States on Tuesday.

    As a law student and then later as an attorney working in Washington D.C., I got to see just how deeply corrupt our legal system has become.

    But after yesterday, I don’t see how any American can ever have faith in the rule of law again.

    If the law does not apply equally to all persons at all times and in all circumstances, we might as well not even have a legal system.

    At this point, there is only one way that some sort of justice can be achieved in this case. And that is if the American people go to the polls on Tuesday and vote to keep her out of the White House.

    It won’t be perfect justice of course, but at least it would keep Hillary Clinton from getting what she wants more than anything else in life.

    The choice before the American people is very simple. Hillary Clinton is the most corrupt politician to ever run for the presidency, and the extremely long laundry list of Clinton scandals and crimes has been well documented over the past three decades.

    The voters know exactly what they are getting with her. And if they choose her anyway despite all of the things that have been revealed, that means that America is willingly choosing lawlessness.

    To most conservatives, this election is all about Trump, but I believe that it is far more about Hillary Clinton.

    I am convinced that we are at a pivotal moment in American history, and if the American people willingly choose Hillary Clinton it will be an indication that there is zero hope for the future of this nation.

    So let us pray for an election miracle, because right now Donald Trump is behind in most national polls and time is running out.

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Today’s News 7th November 2016

  • Here's What Happened When A Hillary-Supporting MIT Professor Decided To Analyze Her Emails…

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    A few days ago, Cesar A. Hidalgo published a very important article titled, What I Learned From Visualizing Hillary Clinton’s Emails.

    So who is Cesar Hidalgo?

    César A. Hidalgo is associate professor of media arts and sciences at the MIT Media Lab and the author of Why Information Grows: The evolution of order from atoms to economies. He has also lead the creation of data visualization sites that have received more than 100 million views, including datausa.io, dataviva.info, atlas.media.mit.edu, immersion.media.mit.edu, pantheon.media.mit.edu, streetscore.media.mit.edu, and others (see chidalgo.com for more details).

    At this point, I’m sure you’re wondering why I’m highlighting this guy’s post two days before the Presidential election. It’s for two reasons. First, the piece offers a very good representation of the sort of peer pressure that can come down upon an academic for being seen as having the “wrong” political opinion. Second, and perhaps most important, his email visualization tool taught him that the current state of our government in these United States simply can’t achieve the best outcomes for the public at current scale (size, geographic/cultural diversity, etc).

    With all that out of the way, I’m going to highlight what I found to be the most powerful part of his piece.

    Enjoy:

    So what did we learn by making this dataset accessible?

     

    We learned a few things about what Clinton’s emails said, about how the media works, and about how people interpreted the project.

     

    We made clinton.media.mit.edu publicly available last Friday night (October 28, 2016). We launched with a single story, written by Alejandra Vargas from Univision.

     

    My intuition was that the story was likely to get picked up by other news sources. After all, the tool facilitated people’s ability to read and understand the content of these emails, and the connections of the people involved in them. But I was wrong—it has been nearly a week since we released the project and no other major news source has picked up the story, despite having been viewed by more than 300,000 people in less than a week.

     

    So how did we get so much traffic without any news coverage? The answer is social media. So far, the tool has been shared widely on Twitter, Facebook, and for a brief but intense time, on Reddit. Its spread has been fueled by different motives, and also, has been battled in different ways.

     

    Many reporters shared the news on their personal accounts understanding that the tool represents a different form of data reporting, or data journalism: one where people are provided with a tool that facilitates their ability to explore a relevant dataset, instead of being provided with a story summarizing a reporter’s description of that dataset.

     

    Another group of people that shared the news were interface designers, who understand that there is a need to improve the tabular interface of present day email clients, and that the inbox we presented in this project was an attractive new alternative.

     

    But many people also shared our site claiming that this was evidence of Clinton’s corruption, and that the site supported Trump. More on that later.

     

    But the spread of the site was not without its detractors. A few hours after we released the site I received a message from a friend telling me that what I had done was “a huge mistake” and that I should have waited to post this until “later in the year.”

     

    A few days later, outside my lab, a member of a neighboring research group called me a “Trump supporter” and told me that I should have only made that site available if it also included Trump’s emails. I told him that I would be happy to include them, but I had no access to the data. In haste, this colleague began emailing me news articles, none of which provided access to the alleged public dataset of Trump emails.

     

    Later, a friend of one of my students posted the news on Reddit, where it went viral. And I mean really viral. It became the top story of the Internetisbeautiful subreddit, and made it to Reddit’s front page. It collected more than 3,000 upvotes and 700 comments. But as the story peaked, a moderator single-handedly removed it in an authoritarian move, and justified this unilateral silencing of the post by adding a rule banning “sites that serve a political agenda or that otherwise induce drama.” Of course, the rule was added AFTER the post was removed.

    Reddit appears to be rampant with censorship these days.

    So when it comes to media, social or not, I learned that providing information directly to people so that they can inspect it and evaluate it, is a value that many people consider second to supporting their preferred electoral choice. The twist is that I don’t support Trump. In fact, I don’t support him at all. I think he is potentially a threat to global security, and also, a candidate that has shown repeatedly to be a dividing rather than unifying force. He has failed to respect contracts numerous times, defrauding contractors; and he certainly has shown little respect for people’s development by creating a fraudulent university. So I think he is ill prepared for most jobs, including a difficult one like that of being president.

     

    I support Clinton in this election, and even though I don’t get to vote (As a green card holder I just pay taxes), I want her to win next Tuesday. I really do. But I understand that this is my own personal choice, a choice that I want to make sure is informed by my ability to evaluate information about the candidates directly, and by a media that is more transparent than the one we now have. Trust me, if I had Trump’s tax records, I would also think it is a good idea to make a tool that makes them more easily digestible. But my reason to make that tool, once again, would not come from my support for Clinton, or my opposition to Trump. It would come from my support for a society where people have direct access to relevant sources of information through well-designed data visualization tools.

    Now here’s where we get into very important lessons about the future.

    So what did I learn about Clinton’s emails? One of the advantages of helping design a data visualization tool is that you get an intimate understanding of the data you are visualizing. After all, you have to explore the data and use the tool to make dozens of design decisions. In this case, the development cycle was particularly fast, but nevertheless I got to learn a few things about the data.

     

    Of course, the whole point of making this tool is that you can use it to come up with your own interpretation of the data. That said, you might be curious about mine, so I’ll share it with you too.

     

    What I saw on Clinton’s emails was not surprising to me. It involved a relatively small group of people talking about what language to use when communicating with other people. Also, it involved many unresponded-to emails. Many conversations revolved around what words to use or avoid, and what topics to focus on, or how to avoid some topics, when speaking in public or in meetings. This is not surprising to me because I’ve met many politicians in my life, including a few presidents and dozens of ministers and governors, so I know that what work means to many people in this line of work, on a daily basis, is strategizing what to say and being careful about how to say it. I am sure that if we had access to Trump’s emails we would see plenty of the same behavior.

     

    So what I got from reading some of Clinton’s email is another piece of evidence confirming my intuition that political systems scale poorly. The most influential actors on them are spending a substantial fraction of their mental capacity thinking about how to communicate, and do not have the bandwidth needed to deal with many incoming messages (the unresponded-to emails). This is not surprising considering the large number of people they interact with (although this dataset is rather small. I send 8k emails a year and receive 30k. In this dataset Clinton is sending only 2K emails a year).

     

    Our modern political world is one where a few need to interact with many, so they have no time for deep relationships?—?they physically cannot. So what we are left is with a world of first impressions and public opinion, where the choice of words matters enormously, and becomes central to the job. Yet, the chronic lack of time that comes from having a system where few people govern many, and that leads people to strategize every word, is not Clinton’s fault. It is just a bug that affects all modern political systems, which are ancient Greek democracies that were not designed to deal with hundreds of millions of people.

     

    On another note, this exercise also helped me reaffirm my belief that the best way to learn about the media is not by reading the news, but by being news. I’ve had the fortune, and misfortune, to have been news many times. This time, I honestly thought that we had a piece of content that some media channels would be interested in and that it would get picked up easily. I have many reporter friends who are enthusiastic about new forms of data journalism, and that actually have been positive and encouraging this week. So I imagined that there was a good chance that a reporter would see the site, go to his or her editor, and say: “Hey, I have an interactive data visualization of all Clinton’s emails. Can I write a story on it?” and the editor would say: “Of course, make it quick.” I don’t know if these conversations actually happened, but given the large volume of traffic our project received I would be surprised if they didn’t. I learned that the outcome was not the one I intuited.

     

    And this brings me to my final point, which is that while I support Clinton in this election, and I think Trump is a bad choice for president (a really bad one), I still think that we should work on the creation of tools that improve the ability of people to personalize scrutinize politically relevant information. I now understand that much of the U.S. media may not share that view with me, and that I think this is an important point of reflection. I hope the media takes some time to think about this on November 9 (or the week after).

     

    Also, the large number of people who were unable to interpret our tool as anything but an effort to support or oppose a political candidate?—?and that was true for both liberals and conservatives?—?speaks to me about an ineffective public sphere. And that’s something I think we should all be concerned about. This polarization is not just a cliché. It is a crippling societal condition that is expressed in the inability of people to see any merit, or any point, in opposing views. That’s a dangerous, and chronic, institutional disease that is expressed also in the inability of people to criticize their own candidates, because they fear being confused with someone their peers will interpret as a supporter of the opposing candidate. If you cannot see any merit in the candidate you oppose, even in one or two of the many points that have been made, you may have it.

     

    So that’s how this election has muddled the gears of democracy. When we cannot learn from those we oppose, or agree when they have a valid point, our learning stops. We keep on talking past each other. I know that this election has made learning from those we oppose particularly difficult, but the difficult tests are the ones that truly show us what we are really made of. These are the situations that push us to see past all of the things that we don’t like, or don’t agree on, so we can rescue a lesson. You may not agree with me, but I hope at least I gave you something to think about.

    While his points about media censorship and peer pressure are self-explanatory, I want to take a quick moment to discuss his most meaningful insight, which is the idea that “political systems scale poorly.” This is hugely important, because as the current status quo system collapses, many of us in the Western world will be presented with an incredible opportunity to do things completely different. Unfortunately, none of the candidates in the 2016 election (including Sanders and Trump) have been promoting the idea of political decentralization, which is the direction I think we need to move toward. In voting for Brexit, that’s exactly what the British people professed a preference for, and it’s what we need here in America.

    In some important ways, I think we should look back toward the original concept of government as understood by our founders. A loose-knit collection of largely self-governing states that are bonded together in certain important ways, yet independent and sovereign in all other ways. Indeed, I think we can break things up even further than that, but let’s start there for the time being.

    If we want to stick with representative democracy, I think for it to work best, it needs to be very local. I think the future of mankind depends on us getting our political systems right, and I think governance has to be shifted to the local level as much as possible.

    This all reminds me of Aldous Huxley’s extremely prescient warning in his 1958 book Brave New World revised (see my review of it), in which he wrote:

    Or take the right to vote. In principle, it is a great privilege. In practice, as recent history has repeatedly shown, the right to vote, by itself, is no guarantee of liberty. Therefore, if you wish to avoid dictatorship by referendum, break up modern society’s merely functional collectives into self-governing, voluntarily co-operating groups, capable of functioning outside the bureaucratic systems of Big Business and Big Government.

    Bottom line: We need to decentralize everything, especially government.

  • Major Quake Strikes Cushing, Oklahoma – Near US' Largest Oil Storage Facility

    Shortly after 1945 local time, a strong 5.0 magnitude earthquake struck some 50 mile northeast of Oklahmoa City. The nearby town of Cushing, home of America's largest oil storage facility, experienced structural damage and lost power.

    This was Oklahoma's 5th largest quake..

    No injuries have been reported.

     

    As Bloomberg reports, the quake struck 2km west of Cushing, Oklahoma, according to USGS.

    Cushing is location of largest oil storage site in U.S. where benchmark WTI crude futures are delivered.

    Quake at depth of 5km.

    Cushing fire officials haven’t yet received any calls for damage at the oil tank yard, and no injuries have been reported, News9 Oklahoma’s Justin Dougherty says in posting on Twitter.

    Oklahoma registered 5.6 magnitude earthquake in September, tying state record set in 2011; number of earthquakes measuring 3.0 or higher reached 890 last year.

    FOX23 reports that Payne County Emergency Management officials confirm power was cut off to Cushing following the earthquake, and The Cimarron Tower Apartments in Cushing were evacuated.

     

    For now there i sno reaction in WTI Crude…

    As a reminder, several energy producers, and also the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, are facing lawsuits because of seismic activity allegedly linked to oilfield wastewater disposal in Oklahoma and other states

  • Doug Band Accuses Chelsea Of Using Clinton Foundation Money To Pay For Her Wedding

    A couple of days ago we shared a Podesta email from Doug Band about Chelsea talking openly in public about her “internal investigation” into the Clinton Foundation. 

    As with many of the Doug Band email chains, the rabbit hole just got a little deeper today with Band accusing of Chelsea of “using foundation resources for her wedding and life for a decade” among other accusations.  He also concludes with another veiled threat on the consequences “once we go down this road….”

    The investigation into her getting paid for campaigning, using foundation resources for her wedding and life for a decade, taxes on money from her parents….

     

    I hope that you will speak to her and end this

     

    Once we go down this road….

     

    Doug Band

     

    The implications are troubling: as our friends from the Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation point out, “*If true* people (then) worth well into 8 figures used 501c3 $ to pay for a wedding.

    The latest Band email comes after he previously accused Chelsea of talking about her “internal investigation” in the Clinton Foundation with “one of the bush 43 kids.”

    I just received a call from a close friend of wjcs who said that cvc told one of the bush 43 kids that she is conducting an internal investigation of money within the foundation from cgi to the foundation

     

    The bush kid then told someone else who then told an operative within the republican party

     

    I have heard more and more chatter of cvc and bari talking about lots of what is going on internally to people

     

    Not smart

    Something tells us that Chelsea and Doug may not be on speaking terms for a while after all the WikiLeaks revelations.

  • Vatican Warns Of "Path Of Bloodshed" In Venezuela If Talks With Anti-Maduro Political Leaders Fail

    A few weeks ago we warned that Venezuela was on the verge of revolution after Maduro took steps to block a recall referendum that many thought would have resulted in his ouster.  In response, Maduro’s political opposition urged Venezuelans to take to the streets to protest the move which they say was tantamount to a coup.  Here’s what we wrote before:

    Once a “flagship socialist nation,” Venezuela has suffered over the past couple of years from a dramatic economic crisis that has resulted in severe shortages of food, clean water, electricity, medicines and hospital supplies all of which have resulted in a desperate population which has resorted to the black market and violence for survival.  That said, Venezuela likely inched one step closer to revolution on Friday when Maduro’s leftist government took steps to block a recall referendum that could have resulted in his ouster.  According to the US News and World Report, Venezuelan opposition leaders are calling the efforts of Maduro “a coup” in light of the broad based public support of the recall effort.

     

    Venezuela is bracing for turbulence after the socialist government blocked a presidential recall referendum in a move opposition leaders are calling a coup.

     

    The opposition is urging supporters to take to the streets, beginning with a march on a major highway Saturday led by the wives of jailed activists, while a leading government figure is calling for the arrest of high-profile government critics.

     

    Polls suggest socialist President Nicolas Maduro would lose a recall vote. But that became a moot issue on Thursday when elections officials issued an order suspending a recall signature drive a week before it was to start.

     

    “What we saw yesterday was a coup,” said former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, who had been the leading champion of the recall effort. “We’ll remain peaceful, but we will not be taken for fools. We must defend our country.”

     

    International condemnation was swift. Twelve western hemisphere nations, including the U.S. and even leftist-run governments such as Chile and Uruguay, said in a statement Friday that the suspension of the referendum and travel restrictions on the opposition leadership affects the prospect for dialogue and finding a peaceful solution to the nation’s crisis.

    Venezuela

     

    Apparently we weren’t that far off with our “revolution” prediction as the Vatican and the Union of South American Nations were recently called in to negotiate a truce between the Venezuelan government and the opposition leaders as the situation has continued to spiral out of control.  In order to calm tensions, Maduro agreed to release a few political opposition members from prison and the opposition called off a symbolic “trial” in congress against Maduro and a street protest.  That said, as Yahoo News points out, if continued talks brokered by the Vatican fail the result could well be “bloodshed.”

    If upcoming Vatican-backed talks between Venezuela’s bitterly antagonistic government and opposition fail, the result could well be “bloodshed,” a papal envoy warned Saturday.

     

    “If one delegation or the other ends the dialogue, it’s not the pope but the Venezuelan people who will lose, because the path then could truly be one of blood,” Archbishop Claudio Maria Celli told the Argentine daily La Nacion in Rome, after visiting Caracas.

     

    -‘Very ugly’ situation –

     

    There are fears a breakdown in the talks could see a return of street confrontations between anti-Maduro protesters and security forces, and possibly an escalation into outright violence.

     

    “There are people who aren’t afraid to see bloodshed. This is what worries me,” Celli told the newspaper.

     

    He said Pope Francis was playing a “strong role” in the talks.

     

    “We are running a risk,” he admitted. “We will see. May God help us.”

    That said, there are already signs that talks between Maduro and his opposition are breaking down as opposition leaders have demanded the release of more “political prisoners” while Maduro has shot back: “There can be no ultimatums.”  Given the extreme economic crisis in Venezuela that has resulted in severe food shortages, hyperinflation and so forth, we’re not sure that Venezuelans will be willing to maintain the Vatican’s truce much longer without some meaningful concessions from Maduro’s leftist government.

  • The TRUTH about REDNECKS in America and in Politics

    Redneck culture doesn’t get much attention – until now.  That’s because that generally they stick to themselves, don’t participate in the mainstream, and don’t come to town too often.  As we explain in our best selling book Splitting Pennies – the world isn’t as it seems.  Rednecks don’t rule the world, but – from time to time they do get their moment of glory.  There’s no better metaphor to understand Politics than with than Rednecks.  You know there’s an old expression, you can take the kid out of the city but you can’t take the city out of the kid.  In the south they say ‘born and bred’ whatever that means.  Let’s take 2 significant Redneck political examples as ‘rich Rednecks’ who popularized Redneck culture in politics; Bill Clinton, and Lee Atwater.  First let’s hear from Bill Clinton in his full backwoods accent:

    You know, if you played this for any Southerner, and didn’t tell them it was “Bill Clinton” speaking, they’d think he was one of they own!  Spoken like a true Southerner.  But we’ve been convinced, that Bill Clinton is a guy with a high IQ, a Rhodes scholar.. a ‘genius.’  Well he certainly is a good ol’ boy.  Just google a few keywords about Bill such as “Clinton Body Count” and “Clinton Drugs Arkansas Importation” just to name a few.  Sadly, Bill grew up in a typical Redneck environment, from Wikipedia:

    He was the son of William Jefferson Blythe Jr. (1910–1946), a traveling salesman who had died in an automobile accident three months before his birth, and Virginia Dell Cassidy (1923–1994). His parents had been married on 4 September 1943, but this later proved to be bigamous, as Blythe was still married to a previous wife…Clinton says he remembers his stepfather as a gambler and an alcoholic who regularly abused his mother and half-brother, Roger Clinton Jr., to the point where he intervened multiple times with the threat of violence to protect them…

    The next significant Redneck in American politics, is Lee Atwater – you can say he is the inventor of dirtball politics.  Slumbag politics.  Negative campaign ads.  Before Lee’s aggressive campaigns against Democrats, such a thing didn’t exist.  If you really want to understand how our modern political system works, THIS IS A MUST WATCH: Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story

    So, in some way, the current election really is based on a Redneck ideaology.  Lee Atwater wasn’t just a Redneck, he was Openly Redneck.  He wasn’t like Bill Clinton, trying to act like something he’s not.   

    The Clinton campaign is using Lee’s dirty tricks right out of his Redneck playbook but they’ve taken it to a whole new level.  So it’s a little ironic when Bill is teasing that Trump supporters are a bunch of Rednecks.  Well this is partially true, but with 94 Million Americans ‘out of the workforce’ who can blame them.  Many Rednecks were not born Rednecks, they became so by years of being disenfranchised by the mainstream, for one reason or another.  One sad Redneck demographic are War Vets, who don’t get the treatment they need for their disability being exposed to the cocktail of Military grade chemical weapons, radiation, and other exposure they have during wartime.  

    Another bright example of the Redneck connection to politics is the Redneckary of George Dubya – the Bushes are from Connecticut.  They have yachts.  GW graduated from Yale.  Lee taught them well.  So GW bought a Texas ranch, a pickup truck, and learned how to shoot a gun.  And he took to the Redneck culture real well (‘Specially Drankan!).  By the time it came to vote, GW had a landslide in the Red states.  

    It’s still unknown how many Rednecks will come out of the woods and vote for Trump.  But it looks like – it will be many!  Remember, they don’t participate in polls, so there’s no data on their behavior.  They have TVs mostly, but it’s only to watch Wrastlin’ (that is, WWF).  

    The Truth is that Rednecks don’t often participate and they certainly aren’t the mainstream.  But when they do it, they do it big.  They ‘Git R Done’.  And in the case of Lee Atwater, they do know how to swing an election.  This election, they clearly support Trump.  However, the mainstream establishment is pulling out all the stops, even asking illegals to vote.  If the story of Redneck Bill Clinton teaches us one thing – don’t bet against a Redneck!  The South Will Rise Again!

    Checkout our series on Redneck Investin’ Redneck Investin Part 2 – The evolved Redneck – READ before RIOT | Zero Hedge  and Redneck Investin Part 1 – A look from the other side | Zero Hedge

    For a full edumacation explainin what is muny and how you can get lots of it, without selling cans, checkout Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex.  

  • Wikileaks Releases 8,200 Emails From DNC Hack; Reveals Collusion Between CNN And Democrats

    With Wikileaks releasing what may have been the final 2,073 Podesta emails in part 32 of its ongoing dump of hacked campaign chairman emails, with the dramatic discoveries over the past week largely overshadowed by the FBI “scandal” which has now fully blown over after Director Comey first zigged, announcing in a cryptic statement he was reopening a probe into Clinton’s email server last Friday, only to zag just 9 days later when the FBI reported it had found nothing material in the 650,000 emails found on Anthony Weiner’s laptop, the whistleblower organization appeared to have run out of steam.

    However moments ago, Wikileaks announced the release of another huge batch of hacked DNC emails, which it dubbed #DNCLeak2, contained some 8,263 previously unseen, hacked DNC emails – a server penetration which had previously been attributed either to the Guccifer 2.0 hacker, or Vladimir Putin, and which over the summer cost Debbie Wasserman Schultz her job when it was revealed that the DNC was rigging the primary in HIllary’s favor – going public for the first time.

    While we expect the FBI to fully parse, scan and finalize it report on this batch within the next 10 or so minutes, and to conclude there is nothing of significance in the pile, we will as usual try to find anything particularly relevant, although if the Podesta emails – which provided an explicit admission by an internal review of the Clinton Foundation that it was breaking the law on at least one occasion, and that Teneo, CGI and the CF were operated as “political organizations”, meant to boost “pay to play” – failed to get an indictment out of the FBI, we truly doubt that anything that is contained in tonight’s 8,000 emails will sway the so-called law enforcement authorities into action.

    As usual, readers are warmly invited to submit any material discoveries our way at the usual address.

    * * *

    In an April 2016 email from DNC research director Lauren Dillon, we find that CNN’s Wolf Blitzer had tasked the DNC with coming up with questions for his interview of Donald Trump:

    Wolf Blitzer is interviewing Trump on Tues ahead of his foreign policy address on Wed.

     

    Please send me thoughts by 10:30 AM tomorrow.

     

    Thanks!

    The DNC was quick to oblige, even if ultimately the interview ended up getting cancelled.

    * * *

    Also in April 2016, Dillon was tasked by CNN to come up with questions, only this time for Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina:

    * * *

    An email from May 2016, shows yet another instance of the DNC creating and approving a fake Craigslist ad seeking to mock Donald Trump.

    The DNC’s outside councel at Perkins Coie was not particularly impressed the ideas, with lawyer Jacquelyn Lopez noting that “the defamation risk here is too high. I know we are going for a parody, but given the content of the post (his private business practices, sexual harassment, etc) we would open ourselves up to a defamation suit if we posted.

    That however did not ruin the DNC’s enthusiasm:

    Apparently Graham took this all the way to Marc, and he said no. So if we do this, we need to get Amy and Lindsey to agree that we’re ok with the possibility of getting sued.

    * * *

    Jackie said to Cate “if you think getting sued would be awesome publicity and Amy and Lindsey are willing to go there, then let’s talk, but…”

    * * *

    Rapid team has signed off, we just need to decide within this group IF we want to take this to lindsey / amy / luis

    * * *

    If we have a likelihood of getting sued I need to look at it closely too if you want to move forward.

     

    You can take it to them first to decide and if they say no that will save me time but I may end up making edits – or I may not – before it actually goes out.

     

    My team if great as you know but I lawsuit should be on my shoulders.

    Ultimately, it is unclear if the DNC ended up running the mocking Craig’s List ad.

    * * *

    Last but not least, a May 2016 DNC email reveals the culprit behind Donald Trump’s exorbitant tax loopholes. And it is, drumroll, William Jefferson Clinton.

  • Meet The Million Dollar Donors (Spoiler Alert: They Are "With Her")

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    A few days ago the Wall Street Journal published a very powerful piece titled, The Million-Dollar Donors. What you’ll see should sufficiently dash any and all fantasies that Hillary Clinton is for the average person.

    Here are a few of the graphics:

    screen-shot-2016-11-05-at-12-31-00-pm

     

    screen-shot-2016-11-05-at-12-31-14-pm

     

    screen-shot-2016-11-05-at-12-31-29-pm

    For additional graphics and more detailed information, click here.

    So are you ready?

    screen-shot-2016-11-05-at-12-33-54-pm

  • Doug Noland Interview: "In The Next Crisis The Fed's Balance Sheet Will Hit $10 Trillion"

    The global bubble that central banks have kept afloat for the past eight years, based on sovereign and government debt, as well as central bank credit, runs right to the heart of the monetary system. That, according to Doug Noland, means we are in for a bigger crash and deeper dislocation when it all comes to an end, and Noland has a good idea which will be the first central bank to crack.

    Doug Noland of McAlvany Wealth Management has a long history in the hedge fund industry as a short seller, having worked with Gordon Ringoen and Bill Fleckenstein among others, but is perhaps best known for his ability to spot bubbles ahead of the crowd.

    Studying credit data, he was initially concerned about the balance sheet expansion of Freddie and Fannie in the early 90s and started writing about the mortgage finance bubble in 2002. He also called the government finance bubble in April 2009.

    In an interview with Real Vision TV, Noland said the current market bubble is a dangerous place to be and there has been a major shift from previous boom bust scenarios, where the impact has been more limited. He also examines how support from central banks has led the markets to ignore the risk – and what happens when that support is taken away.

     

    Deeply Systemic Bubble – Consequences Unknown

    “This bubble is deeply systemic,” he said “I thought the bubble burst in ’08. I thought we were going into another depression. I wrote as much. Well, in early ’09, I had to come out and say– I started warning about the potential for what I called back in, I think it was April 2009, the global government finance bubble.

    “I think we’re late, but this is a different type of a bubble because it’s global. Very different dynamics. The other thing is it’s gone to the heart of money and credit. Right now this bubble is being fed by government debt, sovereign debt, and central bank credit. Back when WorldCom debt and Telecom debt was driving the technology bubble, in my mind that can only go on so long. People will have enough of that junk debt and that will end that cycle.

    “The mortgage finance bubble was a little different. That was more money-like. Moneyness of credit is a term I used during that period. People had insatiable demand for GSE credit, insatiable demand for AAA rated mortgage backed securities. That bubble could go much longer, as it did, go longer, have a much deeper impact on economic structure.

    “This bubble, again, it’s gone to the heart and soul of money and credit. And right now central bankers are basically doing everything to keep it going. So this one, we’re what, eight years into it? I think we’re really late, but we don’t know to what extent central bankers will continue to try to sustain the backdrop.”

    * * *

    Which Central Bank Domino Will Fall First

    Although the markets are ignoring the risk and continuing to move higher, cracks are starting to appear in the global environment, Noland said. As stresses and strains become evident among central banks, the discussion is turning to which will be the first of the dominos to fall, because the greater concern is that once faith goes in one central bank, the ripple effect will be fast and fatal.

    “There’s a lot of complacency here in this country because the Fed postponed its QE, and the bull market just continued and everything looked fine,” Noland said. “Well part of the reason they were able to do that is because of the massive QE globally and the flow of finance into the US from QE abroad.

    “But right now, it seems like the Bank of Japan is in the crosshairs. They’ve tried to devalue their currency, that didn’t work. Their latest spin is to try to manipulate their yield curve, and that certainly hasn’t worked so far. So I think the Bank of Japan is in the forefront of a credibility crisis. I think in Europe, the ECB is only one step behind. Their QE has certainly destabilized finance throughout Europe and is playing a major role in the European bank issues right now.

    * * *

    Danger, Desperation and a $10 Trillion Balance Sheet

    All the policy measures in play now are reactive, with helicopter money and fiscal stimulus the latest ideas on the table and we’re now hearing the Fed wants the ability to buy equities. With the Fed looking at a balance sheet of around $10 trillion, Nolan said things are starting to look desperate.

    “I’ve often contemplated the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, and I don’t think $10 trillion is ridiculous,” he said. “I said that before and it sounded outrageous. I think the next crisis, the next serious de-risk and de-leveraging, the Fed’s balance sheet is going to probably have to double again. Larry Summers was out also saying there’s a role for buying– continuous buying of stocks and corporate debt by central bankers. Yeah. They’re desperate. It’s a global bubble. And the markets believe they’ll do anything to keep it going, and that’s just a very dangerous place to be.“

    * * *

    Markets Believe Central Banks Will Save Them but Cracks Mean Caution

    Markets are convinced that central bankers will not allow an institution like Deutsche Bank to fail, Noland said, but indications of stress can be seen in the currency swaps market. “You don’t hardly even see it in Deutsche Bank senior CDS because the perception is there’s no way they’re going to allow this,” he said. “Their CoCo bonds and some of the more mezzanine debt, yeah, that’s under pressure. But in the market there is confidence that they will not allow a crisis with that institution.”

    “To me there are enough cracks out there, there are enough cracks to be extremely cautious. For me, I would not be exposed to global securities markets, I would not be. We’re in the environment now where to survive, people have had to ignore risk. And they’re ignoring it today as much as ever. I don’t want to be in that situation because the risks are so high. I don’t want to be in the market when everyone else comes to realize, recognize that there are risks.”

    * * *

    The Short Opportunity of a Lifetime

    For now, Noland is in the process of putting together a new venture with David McAlvany, which he said is exciting and because he thinks “this is the opportunity of a lifetime on the short side. But I’m happy to be watching from the sidelines right now,” he said, with some ferocious tops in chaotic markets.

    “I think it’s time to be risk averse. I’m a big fan of the precious metals, I think they’re investable. To me, marketable securities, they’re not investable to me because I don’t know what the risk is. And I know the market wants to ignore the risk. What do we do if central bankers back away? What is the risk profile for economies, for the financial markets?

    “I was very concerned back in 2007. I was very concerned with the consequences of this bubble imploding. I’m much more worried today. In 2007, I wasn’t worried about the world. I wasn’t worried about geopolitical. And I never want to be part of the lunatic fringe, but if people aren’t concerned about geopolitics right now, they’re not paying attention.

    * * *

    A Destructive Bubble Squandering Wealth

    When this particular episode ends and people really understand how much money has been spent propping up a broken system, the divisions in society and mistrust of governments evident in the past year could move to more extreme levels.

    “For me, bubbles are always about a redistribution and a destruction of wealth. During the bubble, there is perceived wealth that keeps the system inflating. People believe there’s all this wealth and securities and asset prices, etc. And they find out when the bubble bursts that a lot of that wealth was actually squandered. The problem with this global government finance bubble– we’ll call it that– is this is a redistribution of wealth globally.

    “And this is not going to sit well. Right now, global central bankers are all working together to try to keep the global financial system liquid, levitated. Politicians generally are cooperating, but you can see society starting to fray here. This is not working right. This is archaic, but this is the consequence of unsound money. History tells us this, right? Society here in the US, people don’t trust their institutions, they don’t trust their politicians, they don’t trust Wall Street, they don’t trust the banks. That’s not a good place to be.”

    Watch the full interview on Real Vision TV, one of the best sources of in-depth interviews with many of the worlds most respected investors, analysts, investment strategists and geopolitical analysts.  No ads, no bias, no bullshit.  Try it free for 7 days.

  • Goldman Spots Odd "Asymmetry" In Chinese Yuan Fixing As Outflows Accelerate

    Starting in early June, when Goldman’s FX team unveiled the Yuan doom loop…

     

     

    … the bank has been esecially bearish on the Chinese currency, a trade reco with which the investment bank has been surprisingly on the money.

    And with Chinese FX data which is expected to show an acceleration in capital outflows on deck, the market’s attention will be increasingly more focused on the Yuan. Which brings us to the latest note by Goldman’s FX team, in which we find that Robin Brooks et al appears to have discovered a curious “asymmetry.”

    Here is Goldman’s explanation of what it uncovered:

    We have spent recent weeks modeling the fixing mechanism for $/CNY. In the process, we uncovered meaningful asymmetry, meaning that the RMB does not reverse declines made on Dollar strength when the Dollar weakens. This episode of Dollar weakness is a case in point, with the CFETS basket resuming its fall after a period of stability (Exhibit 4). Even beyond the trade-weighted decline in the RMB, we have argued that a rising USD makes things difficult for China, because it means that $/CNY has to fix higher (Exhibit 5), which carries the risk of accelerating capital flight. Hedging costs for RMB downside have pulled back, offering a compelling entry point should Dollar strength resume on a Clinton win.

     

    And some more details:

    We often encounter the view that the RMB is asymmetric, by which people mean that the currency weakens when the Dollar appreciates, but doesn’t commensurately strengthen when the greenback weakens. Intuitively, the fact that the CFETS basket has fallen around 10 percent while the Dollar has been stuck in a range means that this is true almost by definition. This FX Views test for this asymmetry evaluates how severe it is currently, and tracks how it has evolved over time. We find that the response in $/CNY fixings became asymmetric in the direction of RMB weaker from March of this year, but has shown signs of abating recently. In a way, our results are statistical proof of a “bias to depreciate,” which we see as supportive of our shift to a more bearish RMB view this summer, after being more-constructive-than-consensus early this year. We continue to think that hedging RMB weakness is attractive, even with forwards moving to price a bit more depreciation.

    Finally, in light of the recent exposure of Chinese capital flight which as calculated by GS was some 3 times greater than the official number, Barclays expects a significant drop in FX reserve when the latest official Chinese FX reserve number is announced shortly, confirming that China’s capital flight is accelerating notably.

    USDCNY came close to breaching 6.80 on USD strength. We think the pullback will be short lived and, as likely to be revealed in FX reserves data over coming days, capital outflows will put further pressure on the CNY. Much will depend on the USD, but assuming that the USD continues to appreciate in the months ahead, China’s referencing of the CNY NEER basket implies more potential upside for USDCNY and USDCNH

    A reminder of what China’s FX reserves look like:

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Today’s News 6th November 2016

  • MOST Voters Now Think Clinton Broke the Law

    McClatchy reports:

    A total of 83 percent of likely voters believe that Clinton did something wrong – 51 percent saying she did something illegal and 32 percent saying she something unethical but not illegal.  Just 14 percent said she’s done nothing wrong.

     

    By comparison, 79 percent think Donald Trump did something wrong, though not nearly as many think he did something illegal. Just 26 percent think he’s done something illegal, while 53 percent think he’s dome something unethical but not illegal. Just 17 percent think he’s done nothing wrong.

    The difference between 17% and 14% thinking that Trump and Clinton, respectively, did nothing wrong is trivial.

    The real difference is that twice as many voters think Clinton broke the law as think that Trump did.

  • Trump Rushed Off Stage In Nevada By Secret Service

    Details surrounding the event are few – according to initial unconfirmed reports, a person in the crowd allegedly pulled a gun –  but shortly after appearing on stage at a Nevada rally, Donald Trump was rushed off stage by Secret Service agents.

     

     

    While many have donned their tin foil hats over the past few months, the big question everyone is asking is – will the establishment use the ultimate tool to stop Trump winning the election? Initial unconfirmed reports suggest that a man in the crowd pulled a gun:

    According to The Hill, the Republican presidential nominee noticed a protestor in the crowd and told event security to remove him. But as Trump looked out over the crowd to spot the protestor, two men in suits ran to the stage, grabbed him by the shoulders, and rushed him behind the curtain. 

    A group of security officials jumped over the barricade, protecting the stage and looking into the crowd, backing up shocked attendees who tried to take video of the protestor. 

    Security led a bald man out of the convention hall as the crowd cheered and also booed the protestor.

    And moments later:

    Trump returned to the stage moments later to continue his speech. “Nobody said it was going to be easy for us, but we will never be stopped. Never ever be stopped,” Trump said. “I want to thank the Secret Service. These guys are fantastic – they don’t get enough credit,” he said.:

    A few minutes later, the businessman paused to thank his supporters for helping to protect him as the man rushed the stage.

    “I want to thank all these people,” he said, pointing to the area where the man was stopped.

    “I saw what you were doing – that’s a tough group of people right there. I saw that, that was pretty amazing. Nobody messes with our people,” he said.

    Below is a photo of the alleged gunman:

    ABC News reported no weapon was found on the man, according to sources. However, shouts from the crowd about a gun elevated the Secret Service’s response.

    Trump’s campaign released a brief statement that echoed the candidate’s appreciation for Secret Service, but did not provide any additional information as to what had occurred. The tense situation came during a slew of Trump rallies three days before the election, as the businessman and his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton criss-cross the country before Election Day.

    Trump did not appear to cut his rally short Saturday, despite the interruption. The incident took place about 35 minutes into his speech and he spoke for another 10 minutes after returning to the stage. NBC reported that no weapon was ultimately found on the alleged attacker. 

    According to the latest update, the man detained by SWAT has been released:

  • Can The Oligarchy Still Steal The Presidential Election?

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts via Strategic-Culture.org,

    The election was set up to be stolen from Trump. That was the purpose of the polls rigged by overweighting Hillary supporters in the samples. After weeks of hearing poll results that Hillary was in the lead, the public would discount a theft claim. Electronic voting makes elections easy to steal, and I have posted explanations by election fraud experts of how it is done.

    Clearly the Oligarchy does not want Donald Trump in the White House as they are unsure that they could control him, and Hillary is their agent.

    With the reopening of the FBI investigation of Hillary and related scandals exploding all around her, election theft is not only more risky but also less likely to serve the Oligarchy’s own interests.

    Image as well as money is part of Oligarchic power. The image of America takes a big hit if the American people elect a president who is currently under felony investigation.

    Moreover, a President Hillary would be under investigation for years. With so much spotlight on her, she would not be able to serve the Oligarchy’s interests. She would be worthless to them, and, indeed, investigations that unearthed various connections between Hillary and oligarchs could damage the oligarchs.

    In other words, for the Oligarchy Hillary has moved from an asset to a liability.

    A Hillary presidency could put our country into chaos. I doubt the oligarchs are sufficiently stupid to think that once she is sworn in, Hillary can fire FBI Director Comey and shut down the investigation. The last president that tried that was Richard Nixon, and look where that got him.

    Moreover, the Republicans in the House and Senate would not stand for it. House Committee on oversight and Government Reform chairman Jason Chaffetz has already declared Hillary to be “a target-rich environment. Even before we get to day one, we’ve got two years worth of material already lined up.” House Speaker Paul Ryan said investigation will follow the evidence.

    If you were an oligarch, would you want your agent under this kind of scrutiny? If you were Hillary, would you want to be under this kind of pressure?

    What happens if the FBI recommends the indictment of the president? Even insouciant Americans would see the cover-up if the attorney general refused to prosecute the case. Americans would lose all confidence in the government. Chaos would rule. Chaos can be revolutionary, and that is not good for oligarchs.

    Moreover, if reports can be believed, salacious scandals appear to be waiting their time on stage. For example, last May Fox News reported:

    “Former President Bill Clinton was a much more frequent flyer on a registered sex offender’s infamous jet than previously reported, with flight logs showing the former president taking at least 26 trips aboard the “Lolita Express” — even apparently ditching his Secret Service detail for at least five of the flights, according to records obtained by FoxNews.com.

     

    “Clinton’s presence aboard Jeffrey Epstein’s Boeing 727 on 11 occasions has been reported, but flight logs show the number is more than double that, and trips between 2001 and 2003 included extended junkets around the world with Epstein and fellow passengers identified on manifests by their initials or first names, including “Tatiana.” The tricked-out jet earned its Nabakov-inspired nickname because it was reportedly outfitted with a bed where passengers had group sex with young girls.”

    Fox News reports that Epstein served time in prison for “solicitation and procurement of minors for prostitution. He allegedly had a team of traffickers who procured girls as young as 12 to service his friends on ‘Orgy Island,’ an estate on Epstein’s 72-acre island, called Little St. James, in the U.S. Virgin Islands.”

    Some Internet sites, the credibility of which is unknown to me, have linked Hillary to these flights.

    This kind of behavior seems reckless even for Bill and Hillary, who are accustomed to getting away with everything. Nevertheless, if you are an oligarch already worried about the reopened Hillary email case and additional FBI investigations, such as the one into the Clinton Foundation, and concerned about what else might emerge from the 650,000 emails on former US Rep. Weiner’s computer and the NYPD pedophile investigation, putting Hillary in the Oval Office doesn’t look like a good decision.

    At this point, I would think that the Oligarchy would prefer to steal the election for Trump, instead of from him, rather than allow insouciant Americans to destroy America’s reputation by choosing a person under felony investigations for president of the United States.

    Being the “exceptional nation” takes on new meaning when there is a criminal at the helm.

  • Julian Assange's Most Incendiary Interview: "Hillary Clinton Is The Central Cog Of The Establishment"

    In what may be his most provocative and incendiary interview ever given, Wikileaks founder and whistleblower Julian Assange – who realizes that if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency his prospects turn even more bleak – spoke to Australian journalist and documentary maker John Pilger, and summaraized what he has gleaned from the tens of thousands of Clinton emails released by WikiLeaks this year in the following interview courtesy of RT and Dartmouth films.

    John Pilger, another Australian émigré, conducted the 25-minute interview at the Ecuadorian Embassy, where Assange has been trapped since 2012 for fear of extradition to the US. Last month, Assange had his internet access cut off for alleged “interference” in the American presidential election through the work of his website. 

    Full interview transcript below:

    ‘Clinton made FBI look weak, now there is anger’ 

    John Pilger: What’s the significance of the FBI’s intervention in these last days of the U.S. election campaign, in the case against Hillary Clinton? 

    Julian Assange: If you look at the history of the FBI, it has become effectively America’s political police. The FBI demonstrated this by taking down the former head of the CIA [General David Petraeus] over classified information given to his mistress. Almost no-one is untouchable.  The FBI is always trying to demonstrate that no-one can resist us.  But Hillary Clinton very conspicuously resisted the FBI’s investigation, so there’s anger within the FBI because it made the FBI look weak.  We’ve published about 33,000 of Clinton’s emails when she was Secretary of State.  They come from a batch of just over 60,000 emails, [of which] Clinton has kept about half – 30,000 — to herself, and we’ve published about half.

    Then there are the Podesta emails we’ve been publishing.  [John] Podesta is Hillary Clinton’s primary campaign manager, so there’s a thread that runs through all these emails; there are quite a lot of pay-for-play, as they call it, giving access in exchange for money to states, individuals and corporations. [These emails are] combined with the cover up of the Hillary Clinton emails when she was Secretary of State, [which] has led to an environment where the pressure on the FBI increases. 

    * * *

    ‘Russian government not the source of Clinton leaks’

    JP: The Clinton campaign has said that Russia is behind all of this, that Russia has manipulated the campaign and is the source for WikiLeaks and its emails. 

    JA: The Clinton camp has been able to project that kind of neo-McCarthy hysteria: that Russia is responsible for everything.  Hilary Clinton stated multiple times, falsely, that seventeen U.S. intelligence agencies had assessed that Russia was the source of our publications. That is false; we can say that the Russian government is not the source.

    WikiLeaks has been publishing for ten years, and in those ten years, we have published ten million documents, several thousand individual publications, several thousand different sources, and we have never got it wrong. 

    * * *

    ‘Saudi Arabia & Qatar funding ISIS and Clinton’

    JP: The emails that give evidence of access for money and how Hillary Clinton herself benefited from this and how she is benefitting politically, are quite extraordinary. I’m thinking of  when the Qatari representative was given five minutes with Bill Clinton for a million dollar cheque.

    JA: And twelve million dollars from Morocco …

    JP: Twelve million from Morocco yeah.

    JA: For Hillary Clinton to attend [a party].

    JP: In terms of the foreign policy of the United States, that’s where the emails are most revealing, where they show the direct connection between Hillary Clinton and the foundation of jihadism, of ISIL, in the Middle East.  Can you talk about how the emails demonstrate the connection between those who are meant to be fighting the jihadists of ISIL, are actually those who have helped create it.

    JA: There’s an early 2014 email from Hillary Clinton, not so long after she left the State Department, to her campaign manager John Podesta that states ISIL is funded by the governments of Saudi Arabia and Qatar.  Now this is the most significant email in the whole collection, and perhaps because Saudi and Qatari money is spread all over the Clinton Foundation.  Even the U.S. government agrees that some Saudi figures have been supporting ISIL, or ISIS. But the dodge has always been that, well it’s just some rogue Princes, using their cut of the oil money to do whatever they like, but actually the government disapproves.

    But that email says that no, it is the governments of Saudi and  Qatar that have been funding ISIS.

    JP: The Saudis, the Qataris, the Moroccans, the Bahrainis, particularly the Saudis and the Qataris, are giving all this money to the Clinton Foundation while Hilary Clinton is Secretary of State and the State Department is approving massive arms sales, particularly to Saudi Arabia.

    JA: Under Hillary Clinton, the world’s largest ever arms deal was made with Saudi Arabia, [worth] more than $80 billion.  In fact, during her tenure as Secretary of State, total arms exports from the United States in terms of the dollar value, doubled.

    JP: Of course the consequence of that is that the notorious terrorist group called ISIl or ISIS is created largely with money from the very people who are giving money to the Clinton Foundation.

    JA: Yes.

    JP:That’s extraordinary. 

    * * *

    ‘Clinton has been eaten alive by her ambition’

    JA: I actually feel quite sorry for Hillary Clinton as a person because I see someone who is eaten alive by their ambitions,  tormented literally to the point where they become sick; they faint as a result of [the reaction] to their ambitions. She represents a whole network of people and a network of relationships with particular states.  The question is how does Hilary Clinton fit in this broader network?  She’s a centralising cog. You’ve got a lot of different gears in operation from the big banks like Goldman Sachs and major elements of Wall Street, and Intelligence and people in the State Department and the Saudis.

    She’s the centraliser that inter-connects all these different cogs.  She’s the smooth central representation of all that, and ‘all that’ is more or less what is in power now in the United States. It’s what we call the establishment or the DC consensus. One of the more significant Podesta emails that we released was about how the Obama cabinet was formed and how half the Obama cabinet was basically nominated by a representative from Citi Bank. This is quite amazing. 

    JP: Didn’t Citibank supply a list …. ?

    JA: Yes.

    JP: … which turned out to be most of the Obama cabinet.

    JA: Yes.

    JP: So Wall Street decides the cabinet of the President of the United States?

    JA: If you were following the Obama campaign back then, closely, you could see it had become very close to banking interests. So I think you can’t properly understand Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy without understanding Saudi Arabia.  The connections with Saudi Arabia are so intimate.

    * * *

    ‘Libya is Hillary Clinton’s war’

    JP: Why was she so demonstrably enthusiastic about the destruction of Libya? Can you talk a little about just what the emails have told us – told you – about what happened there? Because Libya is such a source for so much of the mayhem now in Syria: the ISIL, jihadism, and so on. And it was almost Hillary Clinton’s invasion. What do the emails tell us about that?

    JA: Libya, more than anyone else’s war, was Hillary Clinton’s war. Barak Obama initially opposed it. Who was the person championing it?  Hillary Clinton.  That’s documented throughout her emails. She had put her favoured agent, Sidney Blumenthal, on to that; there’s more than 1700 emails out of the thirty three thousand Hillary Clinton emails that we’ve published, just about Libya. It’s not that Libya has cheap oil. She perceived the removal of Gaddafi and the overthrow of the Libyan state — something that she would use in her run-up to the general election for President.

    So in late 2011 there is an internal document called the Libya Tick Tock that was produced for Hillary Clinton, and it’s the chronological description of how she was the central figure in the destruction of the Libyan state, which resulted in around 40,000 deaths within Libya; jihadists moved in, ISIS moved in, leading to the European refugee and migrant crisis.

    Not only did you have people fleeing Libya, people fleeing Syria, the destabilisation of other African countries as a result of arms flows, but the Libyan state itself err was no longer able to control the movement of people through it. Libya faces along to the Mediterranean and had been effectively the cork in the bottle of Africa. So all problems, economic problems and civil war in Africa — previously people fleeing those problems didn’t end up in Europe because Libya policed the Mediterranean. That was said explicitly at the time, back in early 2011 by Gaddafi:  ‘What do these Europeans think they’re doing, trying to bomb and destroy the Libyan State? There’s going to be floods of migrants out of Africa and jihadists into Europe, and this is exactly what happened.

    * * *

    ‘Trump won’t be permitted to win’

    JP: You get complaints from people saying, ‘What is WikiLeaks doing?  Are they trying to put Trump in the Whitehouse?’

    JA: My answer is that Trump would not be permitted to win. Why do I say that?  Because he’s had every establishment off side; Trump doesn’t have one establishment, maybe with the exception of the Evangelicals, if you can call them an establishment, but banks, intelligence [agencies], arms companies… big foreign money … are all united behind Hillary Clinton, and the media as well, media owners and even journalists themselves.

    JP: There is the accusation that WikiLeaks is in league with the Russians. Some people say, ‘Well, why doesn’t WikiLeaks investigate and publish emails on Russia?’

    JA: We have published about 800,000 documents of various kinds that relate to Russia. Most of those are critical; and a great many books have come out of our publications about Russia, most of which are critical. Our [Russia]documents have gone on to be used in quite a number of court cases: refugee cases of people fleeing some kind of claimed political persecution in Russia, which they use our documents to back up.

    JP: Do you yourself take a view of the U.S. election?  Do you have a preference for Clinton or Trump?

    JA: [Let’s talk about] Donald Trump. What does he represent in the American mind and in the European mind?  He represents American white trash, [which Hillary Clinton called] ‘deplorable and irredeemable’.  It means from an establishment or educated cosmopolitan, urbane perspective, these people are like the red necks, and you can never deal with them.  Because he so clearly — through his words and actions and the type of people that turn up at his rallies — represents people who are not the middle, not the upper middle educated class, there is a fear of seeming to be associated in any way with them, a social fear that lowers the class status of anyone who can be accused of somehow assisting Trump in any way, including any criticism of Hillary Clinton. If you look at how the middle class gains its economic and social power, that makes absolute sense.

    * * *

    ‘US attempting to squeeze WikiLeaks through my refugee status’

    JP: I’d like to talk about Ecuador, the small country that has given you refuge and [political asylum] in this embassy in London.  Now Ecuador has cut off the internet from here where we’re doing this interview, in the Embassy, for the clearly obvious reason that they are concerned about appearing to intervene in the U.S. election campaign.  Can you talk about why they would take that action and your own views on Ecuador’s support for you?

    JA: Let’s let go back four years.  I made an asylum application to Ecuador in this embassy, because of the U.S. extradition case, and the result was that after a month, I was successful in my asylum application. The embassy since then has been surrounded by police: quite an expensive police operation which the British government admits to spending more than £12.6 million. They admitted that over a year ago.  Now there’s undercover police and there are robot surveillance cameras of various kinds — so that there has been quite a serious conflict right here in the heart of London between Ecuador, a country of sixteen million people, and the United Kingdom, and the Americans who have been helping on the side.  So that was a brave and principled thing for Ecuador to do. Now we have the U.S. election [campaign], the Ecuadorian election is in February next year, and you have the White House feeling the political heat as a result of the true information that we have been publishing.

    WikiLeaks does not publish from the jurisdiction of Ecuador, from this embassy or in the territory of Ecuador; we publish from France, we publish from, from Germany, we publish from The Netherlands and from a number of other countries, so that the attempted squeeze on WikiLeaks is through my refugee status; and this is, this is really intolerable. [It means] that [they] are trying to get at a publishing organisation; [they] try and prevent it from publishing true information that is of intense interest to the American people and others about an election.

    JP: Tell us what would happen if you walked out of this embassy.

    JA: I would be immediately arrested by the British police and I would then be extradited either immediately to the United States or to Sweden. In Sweden I am not charged, I have already been previously cleared [by the Senior Stockholm Prosecutor Eva Finne]. We were not certain exactly what would happen there, but then we know that the Swedish government has refused to say that they will not extradite me to the United States we know they have extradited 100 per cent of people whom the U.S. has requested since at least 2000.  So over the last fifteen years, every single person the U.S. has tried to extradite from Sweden has been extradited, and they refuse to provide a guarantee [that won’t happen].

    JP: People often ask me how you cope with the isolation in here. 

    JA: Look, one of the best attributes of human beings is that they’re adaptable; one of the worst attributes of human beings is they are adaptable.  They adapt and start to tolerate abuses, they adapt to being involved themselves in abuses, they adapt to adversity and they continue on. So in my situation, frankly, I’m a bit institutionalised — this [the embassy] is the world .. it’s visually the world [for me].

    JP: It’s the world without sunlight, for one thing, isn’t it?

    JA: It’s the world without sunlight, but I haven’t seen sunlight in so long, I don’t remember it.

    JP: Yes.

    JA: So , yes, you adapt.  The one real irritant is that my young children — they also adapt. They adapt to being without their father. That’s a hard, hard adaption which they didn’t ask for.

    JP: Do you worry about them?

    JA: Yes, I worry about them; I worry about their mother.

    * * *

    ‘I am innocent and in arbitrary detention’

    JP: Some people would say, ‘Well, why don’t you end it and simply walk out the door and allow yourself to be extradited to Sweden?’

    JA: The U.N. [the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention] has looked into this whole situation. They spent eighteen months in formal, adversarial litigation. [So it’s] me and the U.N. verses Sweden and the U.K.  Who’s right?  The U.N. made a conclusion that I am being arbitrarily detained illegally, deprived of my freedom and that what has occurred has not occurred within the laws that the United Kingdom and Sweden, and that [those countries] must obey. It is an illegal abuse.  It is the United Nations formally asking, ‘What’s going on here?  What is your legal explanation for this? [Assange] says that you should recognise his asylum.’ [And here is]

    Sweden formally writing back to the United Nations to say, ‘No, we’re not going to [recognise the UN ruling], so leaving open their ability to extradite.

    I just find it absolutely amazing that the narrative about this situation is not put out publically in the press, because it doesn’t suit the Western establishment narrative — that yes, the West has political prisoners, it’s a reality, it’s not just me, there’s a bunch of other people as well.  The West has political prisoners. Of course, no state accepts [that it should call] the people it is imprisoning or detaining for political reasons, political prisoners. They don’t call them political prisoners in China, they don’t call them political prisoners in Azerbaijan and they don’t call them political prisoners in the United States, U.K. or Sweden; it is absolutely intolerable to have that kind of self-perception.

    JA: Here we have a case, the Swedish case, where I have never been charged with a crime, where I have already been cleared [by the Stockholm prosecutor] and found to be innocent, where the woman herself said that the police made it up, where the United Nations formally said the whole thing is illegal, where the State of Ecuador also investigated and found that I should be given asylum.  Those are the facts, but what is the rhetoric? 

    JP: Yes, it’s different.

    JA: The rhetoric is pretending, constantly pretending that I have been charged with a crime, and never mentioning that I have been already previously cleared, never mentioning that the woman herself says that the police made it up.

    [The rhetoric] is trying to avoid [the truth that ] the U.N. formally found that the whole thing is illegal, never even mentioning that Ecuador made a formal assessment through its formal processes and found that yes, I am subject to persecution by the United States.

  • California Secessionists To Meet At Capitol Day After Presidential Election

    Submitted by Joseph Jankowki via PlanetFreeWill.com,

    An organization which has the aims out separating the state of California from the Union of the United States is set to hold a meeting at the state capitol in Sacramento on Wednesday, November 9, 2016, the day after the presidential election.

    The Yes California Independence Campaign, which is based in San Diego, describes itself as a “nonviolent campaign to establish the country of California using any and all legal and constitutional means to do so.”

    The group is currently trying to qualify a citizen’s initiative in 2018 to get a referendum for secession on the ballot in 2019, reports SF Gate. They will be in Sacramento in hopes to gather support for the state’s exit, or the “Calexit”, as they call it.

    “In our view, the United States of America represents so many things that conflict with Californian values, and our continued statehood means California will continue subsidizing the other states to our own detriment, and to the detriment of our children,” reads Yes California’s official website.

    The group’s page reads on:

    Although charity is part of our culture, when you consider that California’s infrastructure is falling apart, our public schools are ranked among the worst in the entire country, we have the highest number of homeless persons living without shelter and other basic necessities, poverty rates remain high, income inequality continues to expand, and we must often borrow money from the future to provide services for today, now is not the time for charity.

     

    However, this independence referendum is about more than California subsidizing other states of this country. It is about the right to self-determination and the concept of voluntary association, both of which are supported by constitutional and international law.

     

    It is about California taking its place in the world, standing as an equal among nations. We believe in two fundamental truths: (1) California exerts a positive influence on the rest of the world, and (2) California could do more good as an independent country than it is able to do as a just a U.S. state.

    Yes California’s website lays out 9 different points covering topics the group believes will benefit from a California exit from the US, including education, peace and security, debt and taxes and immigration…

    THE CASE FOR INDEPENDENCE IN 9 SIMPLE POINTS
    Being a U.S. state is no longer serving California’s best interests. On issues ranging from peace and security to natural resources and the environment, it has become increasingly true that California would be better off as an independent country. Here’s a summary of why we think so.

     

    1. PEACE AND SECURITY
    The U.S. Government spends more on its military than the next several countries combined. Not only is California forced to subsidize this massive military budget with our taxes, but Californians are sent off to fight in wars that often do more to perpetuate terrorism than to abate it. The only reason terrorists might want to attack us is because we are part of the United States and are guilty by association. Not being a part of that country will make California a less likely target of retaliation by its enemies.

     

    2. ELECTIONS AND GOVERNMENT
    California’s electoral votes haven’t affected a presidential election since 1876. On top of that, presidential election results are often known before our votes are even counted. So, why should we keep subjecting ourselves to presidents we play no role in electing, to 382 representatives and 98 senators we can’t vote for, and all the government officials and federal judges appointed by those very same people we don’t elect.

     

    3. TRADE AND REGULATION
    The U.S. Government maintains a burdensome trade system that hurts California’s economy by making trade more difficult and more expensive for California’s businesses. As long as California remains within this burdensome trade system, we will never be able to capitalize on the trade and investment opportunities that would be available to us as an independent country. On top of that, the United States is dragging California into the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement which conflicts with our values.

     

    4. DEBT AND TAXES
    Since 1987, California has been subsidizing the other states at a loss of tens and sometimes hundreds of billions of dollars in a single fiscal year. As a result, we are often forced to raise taxes and charge fees in California, and borrow money from the future to make up the difference. This is partly why California presently has some of the highest taxes in the country, and so much debt. Independence means that all of our taxes will be kept in California based on the priorities we set, and we will be able to do so while repaying our debts and phasing out the current state income tax.

     

    5. IMMIGRATION
    California is the most diverse state in the United States and that is something we are proud of. This diversity is a central part of our culture and an indispensable part of our economy. As a U.S. state, our immigration system was largely designed by the 49 other states thirty years ago. This immigration system has since neglected the needs of the California economy and has hurt too many California families. Independence means California will be able to decide what immigration policies make sense for our diverse and unique population, culture, and economy, and that we’ll be able to build an immigration system that is consistent with our values.

     

    6. NATURAL RESOURCES
    Certain minerals and other natural resources like coal, oil, and natural gas are being extracted from California at below market value rates by private corporations with the permission of the U.S. Government. While a small portion of the revenue is shared with us, our share has been withheld during times of sequestration. That means the U.S. Government is paying their debts with royalties collected from selling off California’s natural resources. Independence means we will gain control of the 46% of California that is currently owned by the U.S. Government and its agencies. We will therefore take control of our natural resources and be the sole beneficiary of royalties collected if and when they are extracted from our lands.

     

    7. THE ENVIRONMENT
    California is a global leader on environmental issues. However, as long as the other states continue debating whether or not climate change is real, they will continue holding up real efforts to reduce carbon emissions. The truth is this country accounts for less than five percent of the world’s population yet consumes one-third of the world’s paper, a quarter of the world’s oil, 27 percent of the aluminum, 23 percent of the coal, and 19 percent of the copper. Independence means California will be able to negotiate treaties to not only reduce the human impact on our climate but also to help build global resource sustainability.

     

    8. HEALTH AND MEDICINE
    The Affordable Care Act was enacted by the U.S. Government to lower the cost of health care and expand health insurance coverage to the uninsured, yet millions of Californians still lack access to quality health care because they can’t afford it. For many, access to hospitals and medicine is a life or death issue. Independence means we can fund the health care programs we want and ensure everyone has access to the medicines they need because our taxes will no longer be subsidizing other states. Finally, California can join the rest of the industrialized world in guaranteeing health care as a universal right for all of our people.

     

    9. EDUCATION
    California has some of the best universities but in various ways, our schools are among the worst in the country. Not only does this deprive our children of the education they deserve, but it also costs taxpayers billions in social services and law enforcement expenses linked to lacking opportunities resulting from poor education. Independence means we will be able to fully fund public education, rebuild and modernize public schools, and pay public school teachers the salaries they deserve. On top of that, independence means freedom from federal education policies and one-size-fits-all standards set by political appointees on the other side of the continent.

    One blog post on their page draws parallels with a “Calexit” and the recent referendum known as “Brexit” that passed in the UK in June which showed that most British people are ready for their country to leave the EU.

    The push for secession is nothing new to California. In 1941 the mayor of Port Orford, Oregon, Gilbert Gable, proposed the idea to push the Oregon counties of Curry, Josephine, Jackson, and Klamath to join with the California counties of Del Norte, Siskiyou, and Modoc to form a new state, later named Jefferson.

    Modoc County of Northern California voted in 2013 to join neighboring Siskiyou County in a push to secede from the State of California.

    In 2014, two counties in northern California petitioned for the right to form a 51st State of America, which they also wanted to name Jefferson.

  • Shocked CNN Admits Clinton Has Dropped Below 270 On Electoral Map

    Despite the very recently increasing lead of Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in the "polls", even CNN has been forced to admit today that "this race has tightened."

    In a shocking turn of events for the Clinton campaign's propaganda arm, the latest snapshot of the Electoral College map heading into the final days shows Hillary Clinton has dropped below 270 electoral votes for the first time in CNN's electoral map when adding up the states that are either solidly Democratic or leaning in her direction.

     

    CNN made four moves in the map since their last update and all of them are in Donald Trump's direction.

    Maine's 2nd Congressional District moves from "battleground" to "lean Republican"

     

    New Hampshire moves from "lean Democrat" to "battleground"

     

    Ohio moves from from "battleground" to "lean Republican"

     

    Utah from "battleground" to "lean Republican"

    Leaving the scorecard as follows…

     

    As The Hill notes, Trump has been closing in on Clinton's lead both nationally and in several battleground states. Although the Democratic nominee still holds an advantage, CNN's map now shows more opportunity for the GOP nominee to reach the required number of electoral votes to secure the presidency.

    * * *

    Ironically, given our earlier comment, CNN has now folded again and admit their latest national poll shows Trump and Clinton deadlocked.

    Another national survey shows a near-even race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the final weekend before Election Day.

     

    The former secretary of state has 44% of support among likely voters in a McClatchy-Marist poll released Saturday while the businessman has 43%, within the poll's margin of error.

     

    Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has 6% of the vote while Green Party nominee Jill Stein garners 2%.

     

    "Although Clinton and Trump are separated by the slimmest of margins, the Electoral College can present a very different picture," said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Close popular votes can, but do not necessarily, translate into tight battles for 270 electoral votes."

     

    The poll included voters who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate or who have already voted.

     

    When the McClatchy-Marist poll last reported these results in September, Clinton was ahead of Trump by 6 points among likely voters nationally.

  • Preppers Stockpile Survival Food On Fears Of Post-Election Chaos

    The 2016 election year is bringing out the worst among some elements of society. From vandalism to physical assaults to large scale race riots to terrorist bombings and mall stabbings, STHFPlan's Stefan Gleason notes that social disorder has become a more prominent feature of life in a polarized America.

    It’s easy (and politically convenient) for the establishment media to blame Donald Trump for inflaming the political divide. In reality, Trump supporters have far more often been the victims rather than the instigators of political violence.

     

    Moreover, the forces driving social unrest have been building for years. Surveys show that large numbers of Americans – including Republicans and Democrats, blacks and whites – agree that race relations have worsened under President Obama’s watch. The nation’s first half-African president has repeatedly sided with racial agitators and refused to denounce antipolice riots. His attorney general, Loretta Lynch, has given legal legitimacy to vicious racial narratives that have little to no basis in fact.

     

    In addition to leaving the country with fresh new racial wounds, the outgoing Obama administration will leave America with a doubling of the national debt to nearly $20 trillion, a historically low rate of workforce participation, 20 million more people on food stamps, and a shrinking middle class whose earnings aren’t keeping up with surging costs of things like health insurance.

     

    People are frustrated, restless, angry. And officially, we aren’t even in a recession yet. Officially, the inflation rate remains below 2%.

     

    What happens when the economy and stock market start tanking? Or when costs for fuel, food, and other consumer goods start taking off again?

    Well, it appears the answer – as so many have already realized – is finally being recognized by the mainstream media as NBC News reports, preppers are running up sales of emergency survival food due to election night doomsday concerns…

    While sales for "long term food" typically see an increase around natural disasters and elections, "this is more intense than what we saw in 2012," said Keith Bansemer, VP of marketing for My Patriot Supply, a manufacturer and seller of survival food. During the previous election his company saw sales double. This time it's triple.

     

    "We have everyone we can on the phones," he said. "We are overwhelmed."

     

    Purchases at other long term food supply companies are up as well. Emergency preparedness online store TheEpicenter reports a 6 percent uptick in year over year sales.

     

    What's feeding this new urgency?

     

    Survivalist consumers says they're preparing for post-election unrest that could involve everything from massive riots, to power grid outages, to the total collapse of the financial system where a can of food becomes currency.

     

    And it's not just guys digging a hole on their farm and filling it with MRE's who are driving sales, companies say, but schoolteachers, moms, and successful financial planners. Nor is it limited to just rural areas.

    For $2,000 spent at Legacy Foods, you could eat three square meals a day for an entire year. That's 1,080 servings. TheEpicenter has a 14-day supply kit for $235 that's recently been "selling really well," said owner Bryan Nelson. The most popular entry-level seller at My Patriot Supply is a 3-month supply for $497. It comes a in nondescript gray slim line totes bin designed to be easy to stack in the back of a closet or slip under your bed. Big name retailers are in on the game. Costco sells a 1-month supply of 390 servings in plastic gallon buckets for $114.99. Wal-Mart has a bucket deal, too.

    As one 41-year-old "urban prepper" from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania predicts, a Trump win will see the urban poor revolting across the nation and the imposition of martial law to quell riots and the burning of businesses.

    But he's also getting ready for the possibility of a Clinton victory that he says could lead to conflict with Russia and "World War 3 in 2017."

     

    Either way, Freddy's ready – with both supplies and a word of advice.

     

    "At minimum stock up your cabinets as if you knew a hurricane was coming," he said. "It'll be like a hurricane that could touch every city in America."

     

    "You hear them saying, no matter who wins, I know I could take a positive step myself and secure what's important," he said. "They're securing their food supply."

    Simply put, as SHTFPlan.com's Mac Slavo writes, there will come a time when it's too late and you'll be begging to have your old life back…

    With the things heating up just days before what is arguably the craziest Presidential election in American history, Joe Joseph weighs in on the latest leaks, the potential for post-election unrest, and looming crisis.

    They’re so worried about… ‘maybe at the end of the day I might not be able to sit in my Barca lounger at the end of the night’ or ‘I might not be able to watch that football game on Sunday’… Let me tell you… If things go the way that The Powers That Shouldn’t Be want them, there will be no Barca lounges and there will be no NFL.

     

    So it’s either we do things now while we have the chance… because there will come a time when it’s too late.. and you will be begging to  have your old life back.

    And the answer’s going to be, ‘you had the opportunity and now it’s gone.’

     

    There’s a lot of things here in the United States, in the western world and in society that we used to have and used to enjoy… quality of life… the ability to earn a liveable wage… fast evoparting… those used to be a lot more present… people used to be a lot more comfortable..

     

    And it’s just not the case anymore… And it’s only going to get worse…

     

    Unless we the people draw the line in the sand and we stick with it.

  • Class 8 Truck Orders Continue To Plummet Posting 20th Consecutive Monthly YoY Decline

    For months now we have been writing about the massive collapse of class 8 truck orders.  Just a few days ago we pointed out that order declines are coming just as large public trucking companies around the country are being forced to slash fleets amid slumping demand and slack capacity.  According to the Wall Street Journal, several U.S. trucking companies, including Swift, Werner and Covenant, have all been forced to cut 1,000s of trucks from their fleets as “overcapacity has driven down pricing.”  Of course, all this means that class 8 truck manufactures are unlikely to see an uptick in new orders anytime in the near future with Werner promising it won’t add trucks “until they see meaningful improvement in the freight and rate markets.”

    “We haven’t seen any difficulty in finding trucks,” said Ken Forster, chief executive of logistics company Sunteck Transport Group, a broker based in Jacksonville, Fla., that finds and books trucks for freight shippers. “It’s clear that overcapacity has driven down pricing.”

     

    In quarterly earnings reports this month, Swift Transportation Co., Werner Enterprises Inc. and Covenant Transportation Group Inc. said they have pulled a combined hundreds of trucks from service since the second quarter.

     

    Idling trucks is a way large fleets can quickly reduce capacity to match demand, which has stagnated this year amid uneven retail imports and sluggish growth for manufacturers.

     

    Swift, the country’s largest truckload carrier, counted 581 fewer trucks in the third quarter than it did this time last year, and plans to cut an additional 200 trucks in the fourth quarter. The company’s fleet tops 19,000 big rigs.

     

    Werner, the fifth-largest U.S. truckload carrier, according to SJ Consulting Group, said it cut its fleet by 240 trucks in the quarter ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier. The company posted a 41% drop in third-quarter net profit, to $18.9 million, and said in its earnings statement that it won’t add trucks “until we see meaningful improvement in the freight and rate markets.”

    Warnings like the one above from Werner do seem to be playing out the monthly net class 8 truck order data.  Net orders for the month of October 2016 were down 46% compared to last yearIn fact, the level of trailing 12-month net orders is the lowest since January 2011 and down 49% from there February peak.

    July Class 8 Truck Orders

     

    Moreover, monthly truck orders have now declined YoY for 20 consecutive months.

    Class 8 Net Orders

     

    Unfortunately, as BMO’s Joel Tiss points out, things are likely to get worse for the class 8 truck OEM’s before they get better.  With October net orders “much worse than expected” and build rates at 17-18k units, Tiss expects the total backlog to increase to 81-82k units later this month.  Moreover, Tiss points out that increasing backlog and softening 2016 orders are likely to put further downward pressure on 2017 and 2018 forecasts for the OEMs.

    With October builds probably in the 17–18K range, we expect total backlog of 81–82K units when reported later this month. October is a closely watched month for truck demand—historically accounting for about 9% of full-year intake—as OEMs roll out next year’s models, and big fleets set budgets and start placing orders. Based on this, and combined with an average 26% increase from September (13.9K units last month) and where levels have been running this year, October’s tally is much worse than expected.

     

    ACT’s 2016 North American Class-8 outlook calls for a 30% YoY drop in production (227K units vs. 323K in 2015) and 19% lower retail sales (251K vs. 310K in 2015). The 2017 forecast assumes another down year for production and retail sales (-11% and -17%, respectively), with particular weakness in the U.S. For 2018 and 2019, ACT believes the 2017 electronic logging device (ELD) mandate will reduce capacity (5–10% expected) and drive overall industry profits higher, resulting in a solid rebound in truck builds. For 2020, ACT sees a strong pre-buy ahead of the second phase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards starting in 2021, causing another big drop in production that year (-39% forecast).

     

    With U.S. Class-8-truck demand set to decline another 17% or so in 2017 following a 19% drop this year, we expect to see production cuts that began in 1H16 continue into 2H. Also, we have heard from some large dealers that used-truck inventories remain above optimal levels, weighing on used prices and affecting new trucks as well. The combination of lower production and weaker prices could put more pressure on 2017 and 2018 forecasts.

    But, it’s probably nothing.

  • Saturday Humor? Are Americans Too Scared To Consider What Drove Trump's Resurgence In The Polls?

    Are the non-deplorable Americans about to reach the fifth and final “acceptance” stage of Kubler-Ross grieving for a return to the old normal?

    WASHINGTON – Claiming it felt queasy just thinking about what the cause could be, the nation’s populace said Monday it was too terrified to look at what Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s recent rise in the polls was attributed to.

     

    “I know that he just got a pretty big bounce, but frankly, I don’t think I can handle any more information than that,” said Salem, OR resident Tina Redmond, one of the millions of Americans who had learned of Trump’s 2.5-point increase over the previous week’s polling and were too frightened to find out why.

     

    “Once I heard that number, I just couldn’t bear even one more detail. I know if I see a single word of explanation, I won’t sleep for a week – it’s just too horrifying.”

     

    At press time, the nation had learned that support for third-party candidates remained high among millennials and was scared to death of hearing anything further.

    Source: The Onion

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Today’s News 5th November 2016

  • Julian Assange Says Trump Won't Be Allowed To Win, "Clinton And ISIS Are Funded By The Same Money"

    One day after Julian Assange officially revealed for the first time that the source of hacked Podesta and DNC emails in Wikileaks’ possession is not Russia, in the second excerpt from the John Pilger Special, to be broadcast by RT on Saturday Julian Assange accuses Hillary Clinton of misleading Americans about the true scope of Islamic State’s support from Washington’s Middle East allies.

    As previously reported, in an August 17, 2014 email made public WikiLeaks last month, Hillary Clinton, who had served as secretary of state until the year before, urges John Podesta, then an advisor to Barack Obama, to “bring pressure” on Qatar and Saudi Arabia, “which are providing clandestine financial and logistic support to ISIS and other radical Sunni groups.”

    “I think this is the most significant email in the whole collection,” Assange, whose whistleblowing site released three tranches of Clinton-related emails over the past year, told Pilger in the interview. “All serious analysts know, and even the US government has agreed, that some Saudi figures have been supporting ISIS and funding ISIS, but the dodge has always been that it is some “rogue” princes using their oil money to do whatever they like, but actually the government disapproves. But that email says that it is the government of Saudi Arabia, and the government of Qatar that have been funding ISIS.”

    As recounted by RT, Assange and Pilger, who sat down for their 25-minute interview at the Ecuadorian Embassy in London where the whistleblower has been a refugee since 2012, also talked about the conflict of interest between Clinton’s official post, her husband’s nonprofit, and the Middle East officials, whose stated desire to fight terrorism may not have been sincere.

    John Pilger: The Saudis, the Qataris, the Moroccans, the Bahrainis, particularly the first two, are giving all this money to the Clinton Foundation, while Hillary Clinton is secretary of state, and the State Department is approving massive arms sales, particularly Saudi Arabia.

    Julian Assange: Under Hillary Clinton – and the Clinton emails reveal a significant discussion of it – the biggest-ever arms deal in the world was made with Saudi Arabia: more than $80 billion. During her tenure, the total arms exports from the US doubled in dollar value.

    JP: Of course, the consequence of that is that this notorious jihadist group, called ISIL or ISIS, is created largely with money from people who are giving money to the Clinton Foundation?

    JA: Yes.

    The conversation then turns to the imminent presidential election: Pilger questioned Assange over increasingly frequent accusations from the Clinton camp, and Western media, that WikiLeaks is looking to swing next week’s US presidential election in favor of Donald Trump – perhaps at Russia’s behest.

    However, just as he did last week, Assange again dismissed the prospect of Trump, who is almost tied in the polls, winning as unlikely, and not necessarily due to his standing with the electorate.

    “My analysis is that Trump would not be permitted to win. Why do I say that? Because he has had every establishment off his side. Trump does not have one establishment, maybe with the exception of the Evangelicals, if you can call them an establishment,” said Assange. “Banks, intelligence, arms companies, foreign money, etc. are all united behind Hillary Clinton. And the media as well. Media owners, and the journalists themselves.”

    He is right, but the same was said about Brexit.

  • CLiNToN PaY To PLaY…PART II

    PAY TO PLAY

  • "This Quickly Escalates Into Open Warfare" – Why The Government Is Preparing For Post-Election Chaos

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    There have been a wide array of reports suggesting that the U.S. government is preparing military and Homeland Security assets for widespread election fall out. Given the mainstream media’s inclination towards Hillary Clinton and recently presented evidence that Democrat operatives have been attempting to illegally influence the ballot box through falsifying votes and electronic tampering, it appears that concerns surrounding a rigged election are not necessarily unfounded, as President Obama would have us believe.

    With the election just days away, the fix appears to be in and some Americans are readying themselves for a confrontation should one be necessary.

    As the most divisive presidential election in recent memory nears its conclusion, some armed militia groups are preparing for the possibility of a stolen election on Nov. 8 and civil unrest in the days following a victory by Democrat Hillary Clinton.

    They say they won’t fire the first shot, but they’re not planning to leave their guns at home, either.

     

     

    Trump has repeatedly warned that the election may be “rigged,” and has said he may not respect the results if he does not win. At least one paramilitary group, the Oath Keepers, has called on members to monitor voting sites for signs of fraud

     

     

    Over the past week, some prominent Trump supporters have hinted at violence.

     

    “If Trump loses, I’m grabbing my musket,” former Illinois Representative Joe Walsh wrote on Twitter last week. Conservative commentator Wayne Root fantasized about Clinton’s death while speaking at a Trump rally in Las Vegas on Sunday.

     

    Back in Georgia, the Three Percent Security Force wrapped up rifle practice in the midday sun. They then headed further into the trees to tackle an obstacle course with loaded pistols at their sides, ready for whatever may come.

     

    Source: Zero Hedge via Raw Story

    The story comes from the mainstream media, of course, and ties in the Oklahoma City bombing, Waco and the Ruby Ridge incidents, all of which involved people with ties to militias.

    The way the report itself is framed appears to have the purpose of sowing seeds of “crazy conspiracy theorists” into the minds of the general public so that if push comes to shove government actions will be justified in the eyes of the American citizenry.

    But whatever the narrative, it is clear that the possibility of post-election chaos is becoming all the more probable. Whether the initial outcome shows a Trump win or a Hillary win, there are going to be tens of millions of very pissed off people in this country. And there’s a very good chance that some of them will take action, which according to Mike Adams could subsequently lead to open warfare on the streets of America:

    As I’ve publicly predicted numerous times over the last year, if Donald Trump wins, the radical extreme leftists go on a violent rampage that leads to the rest of us begging for martial law. After half a dozen cities burn with riots and looting, Trump invokes a national emergency, deploying National Guard troops across the most devastated urban areas, and the radical left finds itself in a shooting war with the government.

     

    If Hillary Clinton wins, all the Trump supporters who have been violently assaulted, spat upon and physically attacked by the radical left un-holster their concealed weapons and start shooting back. This quickly escalates into open warfare between lunatic leftist Hillary supporters and armed Trump “Second Amendment” people who basically figure they’ve got nothing left to lose anyway, so why not fight to save America?

     

    Full Report: The Election Is A Ticking Time Bomb: “Chaos Will Erupt In Less Than 100 Days”

    It would only take a small group, perhaps even one that’s operating under a false flag, to light a wildfire that could spread from coast to coast. The assets, as Jeremiah Johnson warns, have already been put into place by the Obama administration:

    In summary, the U.S. is prepositioning its “enemy-assets” to blame – on what the administration does – for a collapsed election labeled as “rigged” or the suspension of the election for any number of reasons, real or illusory, such as a genuine attack the U.S. provokes or an attack the U.S. carries out on itself.  Civil unrest and/or war are the escape hatches to bail out of the Constitution and to take control of the country…not letting either crisis go to waste.  With civil rest or a world war, the administration will be handed the country on a platter – indefinitely – and the election will be a moot point, whether it happened or not.

     

    Full report: The United States Is Pre-Positioning “Enemy Assets” In Preparation For A Rigged Election

    All of this may sound extreme, but this Presidential election has been nothing short of insane thus far.

    Whatever the outcome, there will be calls of rigging from both sides, especially if it happens to be Hillary Clinton who , as evidence shows, has been rigging things all along.

    It only took one bullet in 1914 to lead to widespread global confrontation. In the end, no one really cared who fired it or who got shot. The assets had already been positioned ahead of time and were just waiting for someone to detonate the powder keg.

    If this is the case in America today, then this election will not end on November 8th, but could drag on for weeks or months as we saw with Bush vs. Gore in 2000.

    Should tensions heat up and lead to confrontation, it is possible that President Obama will call for a national emergency and activate the Doomsday Executive Order to “restore order.” In this instance, the entire country could be on lock-down, so preparing for this outcome now in the event of curfews, rationing or any number of other potential scenarios is in order.

  • Commuter-In-Chief: Obama Cuts Sentences Of 72 More Drug Dealers; Total Exceeds Previous 11 Presidents Combined

    Earlier today President Obama commuted the sentences of another 72 federal prisoners bringing his total to 944, more than the previous 11 presidents combined.  This latest move is just further evidence of his stated intention to ramp up commutations throughout the remainder of his presidency.  While the President often claims publicly that his commutations are only for “low-level” and “non-violent” criminals, The Hill points out that 16 of the 72 commutations from today were for people serving life sentences. 

    Friday’s clemency grants include 16 people serving life sentences. More than two dozen will be released as early as next spring, but many will not be freed immediately.

     

    Some will not get out of prison until fall 2018. Other inmates’ releases are conditional on them entering enter residential drug treatment programs.

     

    During the final stretch of his presidency, Obama has ramped up his use of clemency power to free prisoners serving lengthy sentences handed down during the government’s war on drugs.

    In his typical fashion, the President also took to Twitter to brag about his latest “accomplishment.”

     

    Of course, Obama has repeatedly denounced long sentences for “nonviolent, low-level” drug offenses as overly punitive, arguing they’ve had a devastating impact on “communities of color.”  That said, we would encourage everyone to take a look at the DOJ’s list of offenses committed by the folks that Obama is intent upon releasing.  Below is a brief sample…do these look like “nonviolent, low-level” criminals to anyone?

    Gerardo Hernandez – Conspiracy to commit an offense against the United States, 18 U.S.C. § 371; conspiracy to gather and transmit national defense information, 18 U.S.C § 794(c); conspiracy to commit murder, 18 U.S.C. § 1117; fraud and misuse of documents, 18 U.S.C § 1546(a); possession with intent to use five or more fraudulent identification documents, 18 U.S.C. § 1028(a)(3); acting as an agent of foreign government without prior notification to the Attorney General, 18 U.S.C. § 951

     

    Anthony PenderPossession of a firearm by convicted felon; possession with intent to distribute 50 grams or more of cocaine base

     

    Tesmone Darin PaschalPossession with intent to distribute 50 grams or more of cocaine base; aided and abetted in the possession of a firearm by a convicted felon

     

    Mark Foster – Conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute five kilograms or more of cocaine, 21 U.S.C. §§ 846 & 841(b)(1)(A); carrying or possessing a firearm during and in relation to a drug trafficking crime, 18 U.S.C. § 924(c)

     

    Ali Reno HardenPossession of a firearm by a convicted felon, 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(1); possession of a firearm having an obliterated serial number, 18 U.S.C. § 922(k); possession with intent to distribute more than five grams of cocaine base, 21 U.S.C. §§ 841(a)(1) & 851; possession of a firearm during the commission of a drug trafficking crime, 18 U.S.C. § 924(c); possession of marijuana, 21 U.S.C. §§ 844 & 851

    Finally, here is the full statement from the President’s White House blog released earlier today:

    Following last Thursday’s grant of 98 commutations, today, President Obama granted commutation to another 72 federal inmates. In just an eight-day period, the President has issued two rounds of grants, totaling 170 commutations. With today’s grants, the President has now commuted the sentences of 944 individuals, including 324 life sentences.

     

    What President Obama has done for commutations is unprecedented in the modern era. The President is committed to reinvigorating the clemency authority, demonstrating that our nation is a nation of second chances, where mistakes from the past will not deprive deserving individuals of the opportunity to rejoin society and contribute to their families and communities. The President’s 944 commutation recipients have earned that second chance — whether by obtaining a GED, taking vocational programming to learn skills for future employment, or addressing the substance abuse that so often has led to their criminal conduct. These stories demonstrate that neither society nor these individuals benefit from disproportionate sentences that keep rehabilitated individuals incarcerated, even after they have been adequately punished for their wrongdoing. The personal stories behind each of the President’s commutation recipients underline the individualized consideration that goes into each grant.

     

    Only Congress can achieve the broader reforms needed to ensure our federal sentencing system operates more fairly and effectively in the service of public safety. As Congress returns this month, it is essential that they take up bipartisan criminal justice reform legislation, including reforms that address the excessive mandatory minimum sentences that imprisoned many of the individuals receiving commutation today.

    944 extra democrat voters and counting…

  • Hillary And Bill Clinton: The "Bonnie & Clyde" Of American Politics

    Submitted by Wayne Madsen via Strategic-Culture.org,

    Whether the information originated from hacked e-mails and computer files or Freedom of Information Act requests, the revelations about the political and business activities of Hillary and Bill Clinton and their cronies hearken back to another era, the Great Depression of the 1930s and the crime spree of another unscrupulous couple: bank robbery desperados Bonnie and Clyde.

    Aside from Hillary Clinton running her own lucrative «off-the-books» foreign policy via her private email servers and e-mail chain of associates and flunkies, it was her and her husband’s joint Clinton Foundation and Teneo Capital operations that scream out the word «corruption.» The servers were merely a mechanism by which the Clintons ran their own «pay-to-play» racketeering operation, something that would have been the envy of a contemporary of Bonnie and Clyde, Chicago crime boss Al Capone.

    Teneo, which runs a hedge fund operation and a «private intelligence» service jam-packed with former Central Intelligence Agency operatives, is where Mrs. Clinton’s «gal pal» and aide Huma Abedin worked simultaneously to her government employment with the State Department. The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s probe of 650,000 emails found on the laptop computer of disgraced former New York Democratic Representative Anthony Weiner, the estranged husband of Abedin, is but the proverbial tip of the iceberg. While FBI agents pore through Abedin’s emails that were discovered on the laptop and looking Mrs. Clinton’s emails that were either not destroyed by her aides or which were never accounted for, the real story is the FBI’s investigation of the Clinton Foundation and Teneo.

    Five FBI field offices are investigating the racketeering of the foundation and the foreign connections of Teneo. The offices include New York; Los Angeles; Washington, D.C.; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Miami. Little Rock is the home of the Clinton Foundation, while New York is the home base of Teneo. The addition of the Miami field office to the Clinton probe is significant. One of Teneo Intelligence’s many global offices is located in Bogota, Colombia. A secretive Colombian private equity fund, «Fondo Acceso», financed by Mexican mega-billionaire Carlos Slim and Canadian mining magnate Frank Giustra, is run out of the Clinton Foundation’s Bogota office. Tracking the money being fed into the Clinton Foundation may include proceeds from the illegal narcotics traffic in Colombia and other nearby countries. The Bogota activities of the Clinton Foundation, «Fondo Acceso», which ironically means «Access Fund», and Teneo appear to be concentrated in the Chico Business Park in the Colombian capital. Therefore, the involvement of the Miami office, in investigating Clinton Foundation funding, including the major donations from Slim and Giustra, makes a world of sense.

    Teneo was co-founded by longtime Bill Clinton associate Doug Band, who served in Clinton’s White House Counsel’s Office and later as Clinton’s chief aide in the Clinton Foundation and its associated Clinton Global Initiative. Band’s brother is Bill Clinton’s medical doctor who accompanies the ex-president on foreign trips. Doug Band was the point person who lobbied the incoming Barack Obama administration in 2008 to appoint Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State.

    Mrs. Clinton’s tenure at State ensured that there was little separation between her department, the Clinton Foundation and Global Initiative, and Teneo. Abedin served as Mrs. Clinton’s «transition team» leader as the Secretary of State left the department to launch her presidential candidacy after the November 2012 election. From that time on, Mrs. Clinton, Abedin, Doug Band, Clinton’s campaign chief John Podesta, and others engaged in an email flurry to 1) ensure that the files in the private servers were either scrubbed or sanitized; 2) to officially sever all links between them and the Clinton Foundation and Teneo; and 3) to paint a picture for the public that all was well and legal with Mrs. Clinton’s term as America’s chief foreign policy executive. Unfortunately, the entire Clinton team has been exposed with the publication of emails from Mrs. Clinton’s swearing in as Secretary of State in 2009 to after she launched her campaign for the White House in 2013.

    The picture painted by the emails is one of modern-day gangsters milking everything they possibly could out of supposed public service.

    The FBI’s New York field office is also likely looking at Teneo’s dealings with other Clinton allies. It was Teneo that advised former New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine's MF Global investment firm as it was collapsing amid charges of major fraud by Corzine, a Clinton loyalist. It is also known as Mrs. Clinton communicated with President Obama over her private server and that Obama used a pseudonym. Obama lied to the American people when he stated that he first learned of the existence of Mrs. Clinton’s server from news media reports. There is little wonder why Obama has refused to condemn FBI director James Comey for re-launching his probe of the Clinton emails, based on the discovery of the additional traffic on Weiner’s laptop. Presidents who dug themselves deep into scandals by lying about «what they knew and when they knew it» helped sink the administration of Richard Nixon and almost cost Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton their presidencies. Obama was wise not to interfere in the FBI’s many criminal cases now building up like a tidal wave against Mrs. Clinton.

    The many Clinton scandals also involve the illegal shipment of U.S.- and foreign-manufactured weapons to jihadist rebels in Libya and Syria against U.S. law. When Clinton and Abedin oversaw the jihadist rebellions in both countries, the U.S. was subject to imposing a United Nations arms embargo directed against both civil war theaters. The sudden decision on October 5, 2016, by the Justice Department to drop all charges against the State Department-licensed Turi Defense Group of Arizona and its owner, Marc Turi, for violating U.S. law by shipping unregistered weapons to Libyan rebels, some of which were transferred to Syrian rebels by the CIA station in Benghazi, indicates that Attorney General Loretta Lynch wanted the Turi case to disappear before the November 8th election.

    The federal trial of Turi and his company was due to begin on November 8th. The indictment of Turi was brought in the U.S. Court for the District of Arizona in Phoenix. Phoenix's Sky Harbor International Airport was the scene of an impromptu and highly-questionable tarmac meeting between Bill Clinton and Attorney General Lynch on June 27, 2016. Turi claims that approval for the secret weapons shipments to Libya and onward to Syria were personally approved by Mrs. Clinton and had a green light from the CIA. Any new email or other evidence that Mrs. Clinton authorized illegal weapons shipments to jihadist terrorists would have required the FBI to broaden its investigation of both Hillary and Bill Clinton, as well as Lynch. Mrs. Clinton may have violated federal law by permitting the shipment of weapons to belligerent parties in Libya and Syria; Mr. Clinton may have obstructed justice in talking to the Attorney General; and Lynch may have violated her oath of office in misusing her position as the nation’s chief law enforcement officer in furtherance of a criminal conspiracy to obstruct justice.

    The Clinton scandal, in many ways, resembles the Iran-Contra episode more than it does Watergate. In Watergate, the cover-up by Nixon and his cronies, in many respects, was worse than the original crimes. In Iran-Contra, the arms and drugs smuggling crimes were equal to the cover-up, including the criminal role of then-Vice President George H. W. Bush in the entire affair. With the Clintons’ «E-mailgate», shipping U.S. weapons to terrorists and accepting foreign campaign donations from dodgy regimes in Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Qatar are every bit as bad as the obvious ensuing cover-up by Hillary Clinton and her and her husband's cronies.

    If these many cases are what the FBI and its offices in Washington, New York, Little Rock, Los Angeles, Miami, and possibly Phoenix, are now looking at, the FBI director had every right and a constitutional responsibility to inform Congress and the voting public. And FBI director Comey has every right not to tip off to the Clinton gang what he and the bureau may have on them, evidence demanded now by Mrs. Clinton and her supporters. This evidence may become material to the impeachment of Mrs. Clinton from the office of president of the United States should she be elected on November 8th.

  • Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commander Boasts That The US In "Strong Decline"

    Seemingly no amount of cash ransom payments, made in the form of Swiss Francs and Euros (you know, because USD just wasn’t acceptable), are sufficient to buy off a continuously defiant Iranian government.  Time and time again the Iranians continue act in a provocative fashion either taking our sailors hostage or provoking our navy fleet in international waters but we still grant more concessions.  According to the Daily Mail, the latest Iranian insults come courtesy of Revolutionary Guard commander, Hossein Salami, who told a crowd gathered to celebrate the 1979 US Embassy siege that the US is in “strong decline.”

    A senior Iranian military official welcomed Thursday what he said was the “strong decline” of the United States, during celebrations marking the start of the 1979 US embassy siege.

     

    “America is no longer number one and the first power of the world,” deputy Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami told thousands gathered outside the former US mission in Tehran.

     

    “America’s political will can no longer manage political and military development in… the world of Islam. America’s political power has strongly declined.”

    Iran

     

    Perhaps we’re naive but this all sounds more like taunting than a country that wants to engage in reasonable discourse with the United States.  Perhaps Secretary of State John Kerry could explain one more time why we lifted sanctions against a country whose commander tells a group of students that “our fight with Americans will continue” all while those students shout “death to America?”

    Every year on November 3-4, Iran celebrates the 444-day siege of the embassy when more than 50 diplomats, staff and spies were taken hostage by Islamist students demanding the extradition of the shah, who had fled to America after being deposed a few months earlier in the Islamic revolution.

     

    The crisis severed US-Iranian diplomatic ties for decades, but Tehran last year clinched a deal with world powers to curb its controversial nuclear programme in exchange for an easing of economic sanctions.

     

    Protesters on Thursday chanted the traditional rallying cries of “Death to America” and “Death to the House of Saud”, in reference to Iran’s regional rival Saudi Arabia.

     

    But the US remains Iran’s main enemy, and Tehran and Washington back opposing sides in several regional conflicts, including Syria and Yemen.

     

    “Our fight with the Americans will continue” Salami said. “Pursuing our ideals in the world of Islam and in Iran, we will recognise no stopping point or red line.”

    Meanwhile, this is what we received in return for lifted sanctions and billions of cash:

     

    Mr. Obama, might we suggest it’s time for a new approach?

  • …And The Dominoes Fall

    With Guy Fawkes Day tomorrow, and America’s “most important election ever” just around the corner, we thought this clip prescient as we have a feeling the dominoes are going to fall soon

    “…so much chaos, someone will do something stupid… and when they do, things will turn nasty”

    h/t Jim Quinn’s Burning Platform blog

  • Civil War II – Fourth Turning Is Intensifying (Part 1)

    Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

    History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war – class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil – its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured.” The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997

    As we enter the final stretch of this vitriolic, deplorable, venomous, propaganda saturated, deceitful, rigged presidential election spectacle, it becomes painfully obvious this Fourth Turning is careening toward bloodshed, bedlam, confrontation, and civil war. The linear fixated establishment, who fancy themselves intellectually superior to the irredemables, are too blinded by their sociopathic, increasingly audacious subversion of the Constitution, to grasp the level of rage and disillusionment of a white working class that has been screwed over for decades.

    As the Wall Street shysters frantically accelerate their embezzlement of what remains of middle class wealth, with the Fed and the corporate media propagandists as their wing-men, the country devolves into a corporate fascist state. The disposition of the nation grows dark like the sky before an approaching deadly blizzard. As passions boil over and violence portends, this Fourth Turning hastens towards a bloody decade ahead with an uncertain climax.

    If you think this is just hyperbole, you either haven’t studied history or your cognitive dissonance and normalcy bias prevent you from seeing the unavoidable societal altering clashes, which occur like clockwork on an eighty year cycle, when the portents are right in front of your eyes. Historian Arnold Toynbee’s great war cycle that arise every 80 years or so, aligns perfectly with the Fourth Turning generational theory. Great wars occur when the generation that doesn’t remember the last catastrophic war ascends to leadership of the country.

    We are eight years into a Crisis period which won’t end until the mid-2020s. As this bitterly vicious presidential campaign accelerates towards a finale which will leave the country divided and irate, the hostile opposing forces will be seeking revenge, retribution, and retaliation no matter the outcome. There is no doubt the regeneracy is well under way.

    “The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning 

    It was five years ago I spent a couple fascinating hours with Neil Howe, co-author of the Fourth Turning, during the Occupy Wall Street protests. He thought the protests were all passion and no depth, engineered by anarchist Boomers. He was right. I thought OWS might be the start of the regeneracy, but it flamed out quickly. It was only a foreshadowing of what was to come. Whatever event or movement created the regeneracy, it would be driven by the toxic combination of debt, civic decay, and global disorder.

    Neil was particularly worried about the Federal Reserve zero interest rate policy and how it was ruining our economic system, creating disincentives to saving and encouraging warped, debt driven speculation. And that was in 2011. The Fed keeping interest rates near zero on behalf of a corrupt establishment for the last eight years has been the primary factor in creating the anger, disillusionment and revolutionary spirit driving the regeneracy.

    No critical thinking human being can deny this tumultuous presidential election and its equally turbulent primaries have been fueled by the dreadful self-serving response of the establishment to the 2008 Wall Street created financial collapse; the geopolitical anarchy created by U.S. interventionism in the Middle East; the civic decay created by a failing government educational system; rampant debt financed materialism enabled and encouraged by the financial/media complex; and racial division facilitated by the president and his social justice warrior brethren.

    The rescue of Wall Street and destruction of Main Street by the Fed, Wall Street and the captured politicians of both parties in Washington D.C. has created the angry, acrimonious, throw the bums out mood boiling over in flyover America. The widening Grand Canyon gap in wealth between the haves and the have nots, produced by solutions from sociopaths in suits has reached the pitchfork and torch level.

    The linear thinking ruling class has been in denial since this Crisis catalyzed in September 2008. Their looting, pillaging and ransacking campaign, designed to enrich and empower a small cadre of shadowy, powerful, wealthy men, had been successful for decades. When you control the currency and interest rates; rig the financial markets; buy the politicians; write the laws and regulations; own the corporate propaganda machines known as the mainstream media; operate a high tech surveillance state; create a dumbed down populace through government school indoctrination; and distract the masses with iGadgets, reality TV, hero worship, professional sports, social media, irrelevant cultural issues, and literally thousands of other modern day bread and circuses; you become arrogant and careless.

    These sociopaths are so consumed with their ravenous fleecing of the middle class, waging wars for profit, and shredding the Constitution, they failed to recognize 2008 for the seismic earth shattering event that will change everything. The mood of the country shifted like tectonic plates beneath the nation. The mood continues to grow dimmer, as the peasants grow poorer and the modern day aristocracy (Wall Street bankers, corporate executives, corrupt politicians, shadowy billionaires) accumulate obscene ill-gotten wealth through their complete capture of the system. This perverted, degenerative, criminal degradation of our society is powerfully summed up by Jesse from Jesse’s Café Americain:

    “Not all sociopaths wield knives and knotted cords. Some wear suits, and are exceptionally intelligent and articulate, obsessively driven, and are able to use and undermine the law and the rules for their advantage, like weapons.  It is never about the win, never about the money.  It is about the kill, the expression of their hatred, about elevating themselves with the suffering of others. Bind, torture, kill.  Not only with ropes and knives, but also with power and money, and the subversion of law.  Lawlessness is their addiction, their will to power.

    When societies become lax and complacent, these sociopaths can possess great political power through great amounts of unprincipled money.  And over time they become almost anti-human, destroyers of all that is good, all that is life, all that offends their insatiable sickness with its goodness.  They twist the public against itself, and turn a broad sweep of society into their killing grounds. This is the undeniable lesson of the last century.  There are monsters, and they walk among us.”

    Neil Howe has noted in previous articles the catalyst, climax and resolution of Fourth Turnings can be specifically dated. But the regeneracy is more of an era than a date. With only three previous American Fourth Turnings, I imagined the regeneracy to be a specific event where the American people, faced with growing peril and danger, put aside their differences and rallied around a strong leader to build something new. Boy was I wrong.

    In retrospect, the American people were numbed by the Great Depression and the bloody initial battles of the Civil War. They just let FDR and Lincoln do whatever they needed to do. The regeneracy marks a growth in centralized authority and resolute governance at a time of great risk and urgency. I believe this era of regeneracy began at the outset of the presidential primaries early in 2016.

    Based upon the reaction of the citizens in the last ten months, the dire problem facing the nation, perceived as the largest threat to our future, happens to be the Deep State establishment currently ruling the country. The captured mainstream media and grey beards running both political parties were completely stunned, horrified, and irate at the unprecedented success achieved by the two anti-establishment candidates, Trump and Sanders.

    This election was supposed to follow the script as planned and coordinated by the establishment, with Hillary Clinton defeating Jeb Bush and continuing the corrupt status quo policies agreed to by the bought off leaders of both parties. They badly miscalculated the mood of the country and the whirlwind of change seeking to sweep away the stubborn remnants of a crooked, decrepit, putrid, existing social order. This collective middle finger to the establishment could only happen during a Fourth Turning.

    This regeneracy is well under way and is poised to transform and replace the very foundation of this crumbling empire of debt, delusions, and denial. The unanswered question is what happens next. I posed that question to Neil Howe five years ago and he said the specific events of a Fourth Turning are unknowable, but the reaction to those events by the generational cohorts is consistent over time.

    We are seeing the reaction of critical thinking Americans as they come to the realization the system is rigged against them. A revolutionary spirit is once again rising among the deplorables. I also asked Neil about the theory Fourth Turnings alternate between external conflicts and internal conflicts. He found the subject fascinating, but didn’t think there were enough data points to make a determination.

    Based on the current path of this Fourth Turning, I’m now convinced of this alternating sequence between advancement cycles and atonement cycles. The advancement cycles can be seen as establishing, whereas atonement cycles are disestablishing. It is apparent each Fourth Turning alternates between an external struggle and an internal struggle. The American Revolution was a struggle against an external oppressor – Great Britain.

    The Civil War was an internal struggle between the industrial North and the agrarian South. The Depression/World War II struggle was mainly against an external threat – Germany, Japan, and Italy. The American Revolution established our country. There was optimism and elation as a new republic, forged under an enlightened Constitution and led by judicious intelligent men, was born. It was clearly an advancement cycle.

    The Civil War disestablished states’ rights, slavery, agrarian society and Constitutional rights. It was an atonement cycle for our actual and implicit sins. There was no glorious high. The resolution felt more like defeat, with the country exhausted, bitter and angry. The country had exhausted itself, spilling the blood of over one million men. The new High after an atonement cycle is like a cold miserable rainy dark Spring.

    The Great Depression/World War II Fourth Turning established a new world order led by the United States. As the only major country left unscathed by the ravages of global war, the U.S. became the producer for the world, whose dollar was unquestioned as the currency of global trade. The new High was unleashed with fanfare and adulation. It was like a delightfully warm Spring, with flowers blooming and children frolicking.

    All signs point toward this Fourth Turning being a life or death struggle between the ruling class of sociopathic bankers, corporate elites, and sleazy politicians versus the oppressed and infuriated middle class. The lying, deceit, rigging, deception, theft and other crimes perpetrated by the ruling elites will be atoned for. The heroic patriotic revelations from Edward Snowden, Julian Assange, and Bradley (Chelsea) Manning proving the government and politicians to be lying, corrupt, immoral, sociopathic traitors to the Constitution have undermined the last vestiges of trust in the system and the establishment. The alignment of generational dynamics will provoke the responses to events moving forward. We have been badly led. A silent coup by Deep State perpetrators has led to the complete capture of our economic, financial, judicial and political systems.

    A vast swath of the populace has been lured into living beyond their means. The existing system is unsustainable. The Boomer generation does not want to yield on their perceived entitlements. The Millennial generation is saddled with un-payable debts, living in their parents’ basements, working the night shift at Ruby Tuesday. Generation X is trapped in the middle of this generational struggle. The huge economic imbalances, created by politicians buying votes and engineering wealth inequality to benefit the few, have built up over decades like flood waters behind a weakening levee. When the levee breaks the morally bankrupt criminal social order will be swept away in the raging torrent to follow.

    Winter will eventually turn into Spring, but it might be a bitter, gloomy, austere Spring. Every Fourth Turning brings on forecasts of imminent doom, but that is also a trait of Prophet (Trump, Clinton) Generations. It’s how they feel about the prospects of their imminent die off; they expect the entire world to go with them. The 2008 financial crisis was horrific, scary and an eye opener for those who blindly believed what they were told by their establishment zoo keepers. The regeneracy has begun; trust in the system has further disintegrated; this presidential election has further deepened this distrust of the entrenched establishment; and the coming bust for stocks, bonds, and real estate will knock out the supports for the dwindling remaining trust in this crooked system.

    “This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on.”

    Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.” Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning

    The next ten or so years will be atonement for decades of bad choices, corrupt leadership, living beyond our means, waging wars of choice across the globe, believing blatant falsehoods, exhibiting willful ignorance, ignoring facts, and failing to uphold the Constitution. Don’t think you can escape the consequences of this Fourth Turning. It doesn’t matter whether you lived according to a moral code, avoided debt, worked hard, paid taxes, and generally lived an upstanding honorable life.

    The death and destruction headed our way will engulf the innocent as well as the guilty. I’m reminded of the penultimate scene in Clint Eastwood’s dark, brooding, vengeful western Unforgiven when Little Bill Daggett laments to “killer of women and children” William Munny that he doesn’t deserve to die this way. Munny responds, “deserves got nothin’ to do with it.” Then he pulls the trigger. This is the kind of future we will be dealing with, whether we like it or not.

    In Part Two of this article I will use recent polling data to assess where the most likely sparks will arise to start the civil war conflagration which will accelerate the crumbling of the American Empire. To reinforce the obvious, Fourth Turnings NEVER de-intensify. They end after the spilling of much blood, incomprehensible destruction and the total defeat of the vanquished.

  • Demystifying The Chinese Yuan

    With one of the world’s largest economies and a growing financial sector, China continues to rise as a global power. And, as The Money Project notes the country’s currency, the Chinese yuan (officially the Renminbi), is also starting to mature.

    The most recent evidence of this? The IMF’s decision to include the yuan as a part of its SDR international reserve asset, a basket of major world currencies:

    The Chinese economy is significant on a world stage, but its currency and financial system still have major growing up to do.

    Courtesy of: The Money Project

     

     

    China is walking a fine balance: it desperately wants to legitimize its currency, but it also must find ways to keep its economic engine moving forward.

    The Yuan’s Wild Ride So Far

    In the early 1980s, the Chinese began to implement ‘Socialism with Chinese characteristics’, by opening up the state-controlled economy to the global market in very limited ways.

    Since being on the world stage, the yuan has been all over the place. It’s been pegged to the U.S. dollar, unpegged, and then temporarily re-pegged again during the Financial Crisis.

    Most recently, the currency was devalued sharply in 2015 to make up for slowing GDP growth. Today, it sits at six-year lows against the U.S. dollar.

    The PBOC and the Chinese Yuan

    The strategy used by The People’s Bank of China has not been easy to follow.

    China wants its currency to matter, but it is also guilty of intervening in currency markets according to the priorities of the day.

    In September 2016, for example, the country increased overnight borrowing rates and bought up the yuan in large amounts to counteract shorting from international traders.

    The Fix Is In

    Onshore, the yuan is allowed to trade within 2% of the PBOC reference point.

    The previous day’s trading might be a factor in setting this. Then again, it may not matter. The decision is not up to the market. Value is set by unnamed officials behind the scenes.

    This “flexibility” allows China to swing between different strategies for the yuan.

    The Dragon’s Gambit

    China can print money endlessly to keep the yuan’s value artificially low, which is good for manufacturers. This is handy in a case such as when exports fall year-over-year, and the economy is slowing.

    But in other cases, China has different priorities, such as protecting the value of the yuan during times of international uncertainty. It can help to do this by securing the yuan with surprise gold holdings announcements or by dumping massive amounts of U.S. Treasuries to prop up the yuan’s price.

    Sometimes these divergent strategies appear to be operating in the same week. Who’s in charge?

    International currency traders ultimately don’t know how these decisions are made, or who is making them.

    The Golden Hoard That Wasn’t

    China’s currency manipulation has helped it to accumulate massive foreign exchange holdings. But these holdings are not a sign of economic strength or a basis for investment in the country’s future. They’re a hedge against currency flight. When the economy is sinking, the government can use these reserves to prop it back up.

    The Dragon Sleeps

    According to the Bank of International Settlements, trading volume of the Chinese yuan has doubled over the last three years.

    But the U.S. greenback and other top currencies have a huge advantage: people think they know what they are worth. The value isn’t set by government apparatchik.

    For now, the Chinese yuan remains a sleeping dragon. If China ever really joins the global market in a meaningful way, watch the currency wake up and breathe fire.

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Today’s News 4th November 2016

  • "Something Big Is Underway On All Fronts"

    Submitted by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the US Army Special Forces) via SHTFPlan.com,

    As of this writing, the increased U.S. troop presence in Eastern Europe includes a battalion-sized element of American troops being emplaced in the Suwalki Gap, Polish territory that borders Lithuania in a 60-mile stretch of corridor.  The Russian Defense Ministry announced that 600 Russian and Belarussian airborne troops conducted training exercises in Brest, on the Belorussian-Polish border only a few miles from where the U.S. forces are deploying in Poland.  This on the heels of Britain deploying 800 men, tanks, and jets to Estonia, along with pledges of Challenger 2 tanks, APC’s (Armored Personnel Carriers), and drones.  Two companies of French and Danish Soldiers will join the British in the deployment to Estonia.

    For the first time since 1945, Norway has violated its treaty with Russia (then the Soviet Union) not to station foreign troops on its soil.  A company of U.S. Marines will soon be stationed for a 6-month deployment in Norway.  The situation is heating up in Ukraine, according to a report on fort-russ.com entitled Ukraine Moves Massive Force up to Lugansk Frontline, published October 28, 2016The report reveals the Ukrainian Army is deploying 3,500 soldiers and 200 armored vehicles of the 15th Motorized Infantry Brigade to Krasny Oktyabr in the district of Lugansk in Eastern Ukraine.  For the first time in history, Romanian airspace is being patrolled by the RAF (Royal Air Force) of Britain.

    In addition, the Ukrainian National Guard is deploying a tactical company equipped with 82 mm mortars and AGS-17 auto grenade launchers, along with APC’s and missile launchers.  A separate reconnaissance battalion named the “Night Shades,” a nationalist volunteer battalion will be deploying to Lugansk as well.  No doubt they will receive a “warm” reception, as the fighting has been ongoing in the region for more than two years.  The area is a severe flashpoint, as the separatists are ethnic Russians of Ukrainian nationality who wish to secede in the manner that Crimea did…Russia annexed them after the popular vote to leave Ukraine.  Now (since December 2015) the Congress gave the green light to send weapons and munitions to Ukraine; the “holdup” is due to Obama not wanting to jeopardize the election of Hillary Clinton, as the Russians have stated weapons to Ukraine means war with the U.S. and NATO.

    Meanwhile the Varshankya-class stealth subs are deploying into the Black Sea as the Russian fleet is moving toward Syria.  The Russian and Syrian armies continue to bomb and attack the al-Nusra/Jabhat Fatah ash-Sham fighters emplaced in the city of Aleppo.  The mainstream media, meanwhile, is faltering in its attempt to create a “sacred U.S.-coalition crusade” to “free the city of Mosul,” as the offensive is not working quite as planned.  There are also reports that the U.S. government has plans to “navigate” Islamic terrorists from Mosul into Syria, to cause more problems for Assad and the Russians; the mainstream media is notoriously silent on the collateral damages being caused by the U.S.-led Mosul attacks, in which U.S. aircraft are supporting with bombing missions.

    Let’s be clear on this: The U.S. is beefing up conventional forces of American troops into Eastern Europe and convincing NATO countries to augment these deployments with soldiers and equipment.  The Russians have been responding with opposing counter-deployments to offset the U.S.-NATO movements.  The aggressive stance is being taken by the U.S.-NATO-IMF hegemony in its military buildup in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, the very “backyard” of Russia.

    The bottom line: the stage is being set to start WWIII on the slightest provocation.

    The domestic perspective yields that just a few weeks after the ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers) transfer from U.S. control to (basically) the UN on October 1, 2016, the U.S. has had a DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) attack from hackers on October 21, 2016 affecting the east and west coast of the U.S. as well as Texas and part of Europe.  Just one week before, on OCtobr 13, 2016 Obama signed an Executive Order for Space Weather anomalies just “in case” some “space weather anomaly” were to cripple the power grid and electrical infrastructure of the United States.

    Something even worse that happened may really tie into this.

    Last week it was reported by the U.S. Army that Major General John Rossi had committed suicide.  Rossi had been slated to take over as the Commander of U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command, and the Army Forces Strategic Command.  General Rossi was about to complete 33 years of service and was only 55 years old.  He was “found” at Redstone Arsenal, and the Army just ruled it a suicide.  The Daily Mail on dailymail.co.uk reported that a U.S. government official told USA Today: “It seemed that Rossi was overwhelmed by his responsibilities” as a potential reason for his suicide.

    The problem is, he committed suicide on July 31, 2016…and it’s taken two months for the Army to rule it as being a suicide?

    With the command assignment, Rossi would have been privy to every procedure and protocol to defend the United States against an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) attack or an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack or event.  He would know everything from the “top” down: that is, the Commander-in-Chief (Obama) would have to foster a one-on-one relationship with the man who would hold the key post to defending against a foreign missile attack.

    Maybe this time the missile would not have been foreign, or if it was?  It may not have been the leader of a foreign country to direct it against the United States.

    It is almost impossible to believe that a Major General of the United States Army just receiving a top command post, a 55-year-old soldier…a general officer…with 33 years of service, a wife, and a loving family would “off” himself because of being “overwhelmed by responsibility.”  Men such as Rossi (the highest-ranking member of the military to do such a thing) do not shirk responsibility: they meet it, head on.  The whole thing stinks of a purge, in the manner that the entire military of the United States has been purged of hundreds of senior General Staff officers, Admiralty, and Senior Noncommissioned Officers…replaced by “yes” men over the course of Obama’s term.

    The whole thing stinks of an assassination: no suicide note, no real press coverage, and nothing from his friends, family, or fellow soldiers.  This occurs, and then Obama signs his Executive Order to “protect” us from the dreaded space anomaly that will take down our infrastructure.  Could this have possibly been a suicide?  Think of all of the heartache and grief his family is going through with his loss.  What about the benefits and retirement that his family would lose with such an act?  If he really committed suicide, then it was probably because he found out about something so heinous, so vile that would occur to the U.S. that he couldn’t live with it and probably couldn’t stop it.

    Bottom line: Was he terminated when he wouldn’t go along with a false flag EMP-plan conceived by Obama to take down our grid, cripple our response time, and set the stage for martial law and the suspension of all rights under the Constitution of the United States?

    As I have mentioned in the past, I repeat once again:

    The next war will be initiated by an EMP device detonated above the continental United States followed by a limited nuclear exchange and then conventional warfare.

    I never said that it wouldn’t be Obama who initiated the EMP device, and in all probability if he doesn’t initiate it…he’ll either provoke it, allow it, or request it.  We haven’t even mentioned the voting (early voting) taking place where fraud is occurring in Maryland, Virginia, Illinois, and Florida, among others.  The illusion of the vote: the joke of the year, but the joke is on us.

    And Obama is the joker, setting the stage for the transfer of power.  That transfer is not going to occur with the losing candidate (in either case) going gently into that good night.  The stage is set for a war to begin.  The stage is set for a false flag operation to take down our grid.  The stage is set to steal the election for Clinton or declare it null and void.  Within the next few weeks, the future of the United States will be decided…with or without the consent of the governed.

  • What Does It Take To Bring Hillary Clinton To Justice?

    Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted op-ed via RT.com,

    Virtually the whole planet holds its collective breath at the prospect of Hillary Clinton possibly becoming the next President of the United States (POTUS).

    How’s that humanly possible, as the (daily) Bonfire of The Scandals – relentlessly fed by WikiLeaks revelations and now converging FBI investigations – can now be seen from interstellar space?   

    It’s possible because Hillary Clinton, slouching through a paroxysm of manufactured hysteria, is supported by virtually the whole US establishment, a consensual neocon/neoliberalcon War Party/Wall Street/corporate media axis. 

    But History has a tendency to show us there’s always a straw that breaks the camel’s back. 

    This could be it – as revealed by WikiLeaks; March 2, 2015, the day when John Podesta wrote, “we are going to have to dump all those emails.”

    That happened to be the exact same day it was revealed Hillary Clinton had used a personal email server as Secretary of State. 

    Yet this reveals only part of the puzzle. There’s got to be a response to Podesta’s email – which WikiLeaks may, or may not, leak in the next few days before the election. If the back and forth clearly shows intent (to mislead), then we’ve got a 100 percent smoking gun: the whole Clinton (cash) machine narrative – according to which Hillary just deleted "personal" emails – crumbles like the ultimate House of Cards.    

    Moreover, that would unveil what was from the start the privileged Clinton machine strategy: to thwart the subsequent internal State Dept. and FBI investigations. 

    As far as the Clinton machine is concerned, an interlocking influence peddling pile up is the norm. John Podesta also happens to be the founder of the Center for American Progress – a George Soros operation and prime recruiting ground for Obama administration officials, including US Treasury operatives who decided which elite Too Big To Fail (TBTF) financial giants would be spared after the 2008 crisis. DCLeaks.com, for its part, has connected Soros Open Society foundations to global funding rackets directly leading to subversion of governments and outright regime change (obviously sparing Clinton Foundation donors.)

    Exceptional bananas, anyone? 

    The perfectly timed slow drip of WikiLeaks revelations, for the Clinton machine, feels like a sophisticated form of Chinese torture. To alleviate the pain, the relentless standard spin has been to change the subject, blame the messenger, and attribute it all to “evil” Russian hacking when the real source for the leaks might have come straight from the belly of the (Washington) beast.   

    At the Valdai discussion club last week, it took President Putin only a few sentences to debunk the whole Clinton machine narrative with a bang:

    “Another mythical and imaginary problem is what I can only call the hysteria the USA has whipped up over supposed Russian meddling in the American presidential election. The United States has plenty of genuinely urgent problems, it would seem, from the colossal public debt to the increase in firearms violence and cases of arbitrary action by the police. You would think that the election debates would concentrate on these and other unresolved problems, but the elite has nothing with which to reassure society, it seems, and therefore attempt to distract public attention by pointing instead to supposed Russian hackers, spies, agents of influence and so forth.

     

    I have to ask myself and ask you too: Does anyone seriously imagine that Russia can somehow influence the American people’s choice? America is not some kind of ‘banana republic’, after all, but is a great power. Do correct me if I am wrong.”

    Reality, though, continues to insist on offering multiple, overlapping banana republic instances, configuring a giant black hole of transparency. 

    Anthropologist Janine Wedel has been one of the few in Clinton-linked US mainstream media acknowledging how Bill Clinton, while Hillary was Secretary of State, perfected his version of “philantro-capitalism” (actually a money laundering “pay to play” racket), a practice “by no means confined to the Clintons”.    

    And the racket prospered with inbuilt nuggets, such as Hillary being perfectly aware that prime Clinton Foundation donors Qatar and Saudi Arabia were also financing ISIS/ISIL/Daesh.  

    Huma, the Fall Princess 

    Now, less than a week before the election, we have come to the crucial juncture where the WikiLeaks revelations are merging with the FBI investigations – all three of them. 

    Exhibit A is this WikiLeaks bombshell; Peter Kadzik, who’s now in charge of the Department of Justice (DOJ) probe into the 650,000 emails found on the laptop shared by Clinton’s right-hand woman Huma Abedin and her estranged, pervert husband Anthony Wiener, is a Clinton asset.

    Not only Kadzik was an attorney for Marc Rich when he was pardoned by Bill Clinton; Podesta – as also revealed by WikiLeaks – thanked Kadzik for keeping him “out of jail”; and it was Kadzik who gave Podesta a secret heads up on the Clinton email investigation.  

    The Clinton machine, starring a self-described virtuous Madonna, is actually a pretty nasty business. Huma and her family’s close connections to Saudi Arabia – and the Muslim Brotherhood – are legendary (that includes her brother Hassan, who works for Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi). Podesta, by the way, is a handsomely remunerated lobbyist for Saudi Arabia in Washington; that’s part of the Clinton Foundation connection.

    Yet now, with Huma in the spotlight – still maintaining she didn’t know all those emails were in her and Wiener’s laptop – it’s no wonder Hillary has instantly downgraded her, publicly, to “one of my aides”. She used to be Hillary’s ersatz “daughter”; now she’s being framed as The Fall Princess. 

    And that brings us to the intersection of those three FBI investigations; on Hillary’s Subterranean Email Server (in theory closed by FBI’s Comey last summer); on the Clinton Foundation; and on Wiener’s sexting of minors. The FBI has been investigating the Clinton Foundation for over a year now. Let’s try to cut a long story short.

    Follow the evidence

    Last July, the DOJ – under Clinton/Obama asset Loretta Lynch – decided not to prosecute anyone on Emailgate. And yet FBI director Comey – who nonetheless stressed Hillary’s “extreme carelessness” – turbo-charged his no-denial mode on another investigation, as in the FBI “sought to refocus the Clinton Foundation probe.” 

    Soon we had Clinton Foundation FBI investigators trying to get access to all the emails turned over in the Emailgate investigation. The East District of New York refused it. Very important point; up to 2015, guess who was the US attorney at the East District; Clinton/Obama asset Lynch. 

    Enter an extra layer of legalese. Less than two months ago, the Clinton Foundation FBI investigators discovered they could not have access to any Emailgate material that was connected to immunity agreements. 

    But then, roughly a month ago, another FBI team captured the by now famous laptop shared by Huma and Wiener – using a warrant allowing only a probe on Weiner’s sexting of a 15-year-old girl. Subsequently they found Huma Abedin emails at all her accounts – from Humaabedin@yahoo.com to the crucial huma@clintonemail.com.  This meant not only that Huma was forwarding State Dept. emails to her private accounts, but also that Hillary was sending emails from the “secret” clintonemail.com to Huma at yahoo.com. 

    No one knew for sure, but some of these emails might be duplicates of those the Clinton Foundation FBI investigators could not access because of the pesky immunity agreements. 

    What’s established by now is that the metadata in the Huma/Wiener laptop was duly examined. Now picture both teams of FBI investigators – Clinton Foundation and pervert Wiener – comparing notes. And then they decide Huma’s emails are “relevant”. 

    Key questions apply; and the most pressing is how the emails were deemed “relevant” if the investigators could only examine the metadata. What matters is that Comey certainly was made aware of the content of the emails – a potential game-changer. That’s why one of my sources insists his decision to go public came from above. 

    The other key question now is whether the DOJ – via Kadzik? – will once again thwart another investigation, this time on the Clinton Foundation. Senior, serious FBI agents won’t take that – massive euphemism – kindly.

    The FBI has been on the Clinton Foundation for over a year. Now, arguably, they are loaded with evidence – and they won’t quit. Winning the presidency now seems to be the least of Hillary Clinton’s Bonfire of Scandals’ problems. 

  • Turkish Police Raid Opposition Headquarters, Arrest Pro-Kurdish Party Leaders

    Back in May, just two months before the Turkish “coup”, we reported that the puppet parliament of Turkish president Erodgan agreed to strip its members of immunity, a move which we predicted would “be used by Erdogan to prosecute members of the pro-Kurdish HDP, parliament’s third-biggest party, as well as anyone else he choose to take down.

    Six months, and one fake coup which concentrated virtually all domestic political power in Erdogan’s hands later, we were proven right, when overnight two co-leaders of Turkey’s pro-Kurdish, People’s Democratic Party (HDP) and at least 11 more MPs were detained overnight as police raided homes in Ankara and eastern Kurdish-majority areas. Local media reported that other than in Ankara and Diyarbakir, the arrests have been made in the eastern and southeastern Turkish cities of Hakkari, Mardin and Batman. The arrests are linked to “terrorist propaganda” cases, Reuters said.


    The raids took place on Thursday night in several Turkish cities

    Turkish police raided the Ankara house of co-leader Selahattin Demirtas and the house of co-leader Figen Yuksekdag in Diyarbakir, the largest city in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast, the party’s lawyers told Reuters. “HDP call international community to react against Erdogan Regime’s coup,” the party said on Twitter, referring to President Tayyip Erdogan.


    Selahattin Demirtas was detained at his home in Diyarbakir

    Police also raided and searched the party’s head office in central Ankara. Television images showed party officials quarreling with police during the raid, and a Reuters witness said many police cars and armed vehicles had closed the entrances to the street of the HDP headquarters.

    Selahattin Demirtas and Figen Yuksekdag were detained at their respective homes as part of a “counter-terrorism inquiry”, security sources quoted by Anadolu news agency said. At least nine other HDP MPs were also taken into custody.

    The lawmakers were detained after “failing to appear for a summons to testify as part of a counter-terrorism investigation,” Anadolu state news agency reported.

    The testimonies are connected to “terrorist propaganda” probes related to the Kurdish militant group PKK, and to the pro-Kurdish protests with violent clashes of October 2014, which HDP co-chair Demirtas is accused of inciting. The MPs were required to show up for testimonies after their parliamentary immunity was lifted thanks to the abovementioned law passed earlier this year. The two HDP leaders reportedly vowed not to testify.

    Police broke into the home of HPD co-leader Figen Yüksekda? in Diyarbakir and detained her early Friday, while Selahattin Demirtas was detained in his Ankara house

    The party’s lawyers told Reuters that 11 other HDP parliamentarians were also arrested in the raids, with two more wanted for arrest. Local media reported that other than in Ankara and Diyarbakir, the arrests have been made in the eastern and southeastern Turkish cities of Hakkari, Mardin and Batman.

    Those detained included HDP’s deputy speaker in the Turkish parliament, RIA Novosti reported. “Deputy speaker of parliament Pervin Buldan has also been detained in Ankara,” the HDP representative was quoted as saying.

    The HDP, which is in strong opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government and supports the Kurdish- and other minorities, has been accused of having links to PKK, which Ankara considers a terrorist organization.

    Meanwhile social networks could not be accessed from inside Turkey. Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Whatsapp were inaccessible, even when users tried to circumvent restrictions using a virtual private network (VPN).

    Mr Demirtas had tweeted about his arrest before the sites were restricted. Another MP from the party who is currently abroad, Ertugrul Kurkcu, told the BBC that the detentions were “totally unlawful”. He said: “This crackdown tonight is nothing to do with procedural law, criminal law, any law whatsoever or the constitution. This is an unlawful hijacking of HDP parliamentarians.

    “The Turkish government is heading towards a dictatorship of Nazi style [sic].

    “Will the Turkish government abide by the internationally accepted standards of parliamentary democracy? This is the basic question.”

    Turkey claims that the HDP has links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant group, but the party strongly denies this. The PKK is deemed a terrorist organisation by the US, the European Union and Turkey.

    Turkey remains under a state of emergency that was imposed after a failed coup in July. The emergency allows President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his cabinet to bypass parliament when drafting new laws and to restrict or suspend rights and freedoms. About 100,000 public sector employees with alleged links to the coup’s alleged mastermind were subsequently purged from their jobs.

    The HDP entered the Turkish parliament for the first time last year, when it won 59 seats and became the country’s third-largest party. It had done so after at least two people died in explosions at one of its rallies. But just three months later, against a backdrop of rising violence between Turkish forces and the PKK, a crowd attacked the HDP’s offices in Ankara.

    The next day, Mr Demirtas accused the ruling party of orchestrating nationalist attacks. Turkish politicians normally have immunity from prosecution, but this was removed from the HDP earlier this year.

    The take home message: after cracking down on the rank and file, the police, army, the state workers in the aftermath of July’s “failed coup”, Erdogan has now gone after the third largest political party in Turkey, and his on his way to becoming a full-fledged dictator, and all thoughout the humanitarian,democratic western powers sit back and pretend not to see Turkey’s collapse into a dictatorial power.

  • The October Payrolls Report: What Wall Street Expects

    While the October payrolls report, due out at 8:30am on Friday, has taken on a secondary importance in light of the market’s near certainty that the Fed will hike rates in December (absent a Trump victory and/or a market crash), analysts and traders will surely be concerned any prominent outlier prints that deviate too far from the consensus estimate of 175K. So, in preview of tomorrow’s biggest economic update, here is a snapshot of what Wall Street expects.

    According to consensus, while estimates point to a pick up in payrolls growth for October, but jobless claims and ADP report have sent mixed signals ahead of NFP release; still, the number should be strong enough to prompt the Fed to raise rates in December, strategists say. 

    • The average Nonfarm payrolls estimate stands at 175k, up modestly from September’s +156k
    • The Unemployment rate seen at 4.9% vs 5.0%
       
    • Average weekly hours exp. at 34.4
    • Average hourly earnings exp. +0.3% m/m, vs +0.2% in September

    This is what the latest ADP report said:

    “Job growth remains strong although the pace of growth appears to be slowing,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a statement. Moody’s produces the figures with ADP. “Behind the slowdown is businesses’ difficulty filling open positions. However, there is some weakness in construction, education and mining.”

    The Nov. 2, FOMC statement was optimistic:

    “The labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid”

    Summary Analyst Views:

    Deutsche Bank (Joe Lavorgna)

    • Headline and private payrolls are expected to rise 150k, slowing moderately
      from their three-month trailing averages of 192k and 177k, respectively
    • A similar reading to the ADP report for today’s employment report from the BLS
      will certainly keep the Fed on track to hike in December.
    • “The October employment report should
      strengthen the Fed’s resolve to raise rates next month…. the bar is fairly low with respect to
      what the Fed needs to see from the October labor data.”

    FTN (Jim Vogel, in note)

    • Current market expectations are in line with December rate hike; only a figure of 125k or less could push market-implied Fed hike odds below 65%
    • Payrolls of 150-200k would see UST 5Y yield between 1.27-1.32%, UST 10Y yield between 1.79-1.84%

    Barclays (Michael Gapen, in note)

    • Recent data on jobless claims “supportive of further improvement in labor market conditions this year”
    • “However, over the past few months, the relationship between claims and employment seems to have weakened somewhat and we have chosen to take less signal from the ongoing declines than we have in the past”

    BMO (Ian Lyngen, in note)

    • ADP miss suggests “marginal downward skew” in NFP report
    • Notes relevant correlation between the two measures that has held up 9 times in last 12 months

    Morgan Stanley (Ted Wieseman, in note)

    • Lowers payrolls forecast to 185k from 205k
    • ADP miss points to weakness ahead of NFP report; overall figure of +147k was “far enough below” MS estimate of 197k to prompt a downward adjustment to payrolls prediction

    * * *

    One notable point brought up by Joe Lavorgna, and the reason why going forward, he is “less sanguine on the labor market.” is that as the chart below indicates, “the year-over-year change in temporary hiring leads that of the overall labor market by two quarters. Temp hiring has been trending noticeably lower as of late. If temp hiring began declining outright on an annual basis, the risk of a more concerning slowdown in hiring would increase.”

    * * *

    According to Southbay Research, today’s Challenger Layoffs, and seasonal retail hiring holds the key to the October Payrolls report, as retailers are scrambling for workers.

    Retail stores Are Hiring Earlier

    Thanks to Amazon, big box stores continue to cut store fronts.
    This year brought another wave of big-box store closings (Walmart, JC Penny, Macy’s, etc).  On top of that is the bankruptcy of Sports Authority.

    No drop in hiring despite fewer store fronts

    With hundreds of fewer brick-and-mortar stores, we should expect fewer retail seasonal workers.
    In fact, the opposite is the case: (per Challenger Gray) announced seasonal retail hiring will slightly exceed last year’s.  The reason: more online shopping is driving more logistical/inventory/shipping support.

    Early Hiring?

    Seasonal hiring kicks off in October: last year 194K people were hired (not seasonally adjusted).
    More importantly, the trend over the last few years is towards earlier October hiring.
    Is that the case this year?

    Per Challenger Gray, October job cut announcements were (-1K), much lower than last year’s (-5K).
    That could be a sign that retailers are staffing up early.

    One possible driver: Halloween spending. 

    Per the National Retail Federation, spending this year was up 10% over last year.

    * * *

    Finally, here is Goldman’s comprehensive preview of what to expect:

    Payrolls Preview

    We forecast an increase of 185k in nonfarm payroll employment for October, slightly above consensus expectations. An expected rebound in employment growth for state and local governments, as well as education- and health care-related industries, is a key reason for the acceleration from a 156k gain in payrolls in September.

    We look for a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.9%, which is now unusually high compared with continuing jobless claims. Favorable calendar effects as well as strengthening underlying wage tends likely boosted average hourly earnings by 0.3% month-over-month.

    We forecast that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 185k in October, slightly more than expected by consensus estimates (+175k). Although payroll growth edged down to 156k in September, much of the slowing was concentrated in state and local government employment and (private) education and health care employment. In September these industries added just 14k jobs, compared with an average monthly increase over the prior twelve months of 61k (Exhibit 1). A partial rebound in these sectors—with other industries steady—would be enough to lift payroll growth into the high-100k range.

    Expecting a Rebound in Government, Education and Health Employment

     

    Arguing for a stronger report:

    • Jobless claims: Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits have continued to trend down, with the four-week moving average falling to 252k in the October survey week from 258k in the September survey week. The decline would have been even larger except for a rise in claims in the Southeast due to Hurricane Matthew (see below) and an unusually large increase in claims in Kentucky (which we believe was related to a temporary auto plant shutdown). In general, the level of initial claims looks consistent with very low layoff activity in the economy.
    • Manufacturing surveys: The majority of the employment components of the various monthly manufacturing surveys improved in October. The ISM manufacturing (+3.2pt to 52.9), Philly Fed (+1.3pt to -4.0), Kansas City Fed (+10 to +7), and Richmond Fed (+16pt to +3) measures all rose, while the Dallas Fed employment index declined (-2.1pt to +0.2). Manufacturing employment fell by 13k in September, and has declined by 5k on average over the last six months.
    • Seasonals: Seasonal factors are mildly positive for payroll growth this month, in our view. Since the 2008-9 recession, October payroll growth has surprised consensus expectations to the upside two-thirds of the time, with an average surprise of 45k. Moreover, October has often featured favorable revisions: the average two-month revision in the October employment report has been 67k since 2010, 37k since 2005, and 42k since 2000 (Exhibit 2).

    October Employment Reports Often Feature Upward Revisions

     

    Arguing for a weaker report:

    • Job availability: The Conference Board’s labor differential—the difference between the share of households saying that jobs are plentiful and the share saying they are hard to get—declined 3.1 points to +2.2. Despite the pullback, the labor differential remains near a post-crisis high.
    • ADP: ADP reported a 147k gain in private payroll employment in October, below a revised +202k increase in September. The ADP report introduced methodological changes this month, and will now offer more details by sector. Our preliminary analysis suggests that the forecast performance of the ADP series should be similar under the new methodology.
    • Hurricane Matthew: Hurricane Matthew struck the Southeastern US in early October, and may have weighed on payroll employment growth in some states. Initial jobless claims in the region were cumulatively about 10k above their pre-hurricane trend during the middle weeks of last month (with most of the effects in North Carolina). We therefore expect a modest drag from the hurricane of 5-10k on October payroll employment growth (see here for more details).

    Neutral factors:

    • Service sector surveys: The employment components of some service sector surveys deteriorated in October, but most appear consistent with healthy payroll gains. In particular, the ISM non-manufacturing report’s employment index declined to 53.1 following a record monthly increase to 57.2 in September. Aside from the September value, however, the index is at its highest level of this year. Among the regional surveys, the NY Fed index rose slightly (+1.6pt to +9.7, not seasonally adjusted) and the Richmond Fed measure was unchanged (at +6), although the Philly Fed index (-10.8pt to +8.5) and Dallas Fed index (-1.7pt to +2.7) declined. Service sector employment rose 157k last month, and has increased 163k on average over the last six months.
    • Job cuts: Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas were little changed at 31k for October. Announced job cuts have remained within a narrow range over the last six months and, like initial jobless claims, appear consistent with generally low layoff activity.

    We expect that the unemployment rate declined to 4.9% in October from an unrounded 4.965% previously. On a rounded basis, the headline U3 unemployment rate edged up by one-tenth in September, and is now up three-tenths from a cyclical low of 4.7% in May. A further increase in the U3 unemployment rate would be surprising in light of the continued decline in the number of unemployment insurance benefit recipients (Exhibit 3). The U3 and U6 measures of labor utilization may take on heightened importance this month, given Fed officials’ focus on the degree of slack remaining in the labor market.

    Unemployment Rate High Compared to Continuing Claims

    We forecast that average hourly earnings for all workers rose by 0.3% (mom) in October, in large part reflecting favorable calendar effects. We expect the year-on-year rate to remain at 2.6%. The broader wage data remain encouraging: our wage tracker—which aggregates four measures of wage growth—also stands at 2.6% year-on-year, a sign that diminishing slack is boosting wage growth.

  • Donald Trump & The Passion Of The Christ

    Authored by Antonius Quinas via AntoniusAquinas.com,

    If Donald Trump can somehow defeat the Wicked Witch of Chappaqua despite vote rigging, outlandish media bias, backstabbing by his own party’s elites, and opposition of Wall Street, his victory may be the most serious setback for The Establishment since, perhaps, the release of Mel Gibson’s blockbuster movie, The Passion of the Christ.

    Both Gibson and Trump faced seemingly impossible odds at the start of their quests and were viciously attacked and undermined by the usual Establishment suspects, yet, in Gibson’s case, he was able to beat the bastards at their own game producing one of the most accurate and authentic Christian movies ever made which garnered over a half billion dollars and numerous cinematic awards!

    Unfortunately, Mel Gibson did not parlay his enormous success and cause further aggravation for the Entertainment industry with additional non-cultural Marxist features, but fell prey to booze and the pleasures of the flesh.  Moreover, Gibson, who was once a traditional Catholic who rejects the heretical changes brought about at the Vatican II Anti-council, could have been a force in a counter insurgency to rid the Church of its current horde of apostates including its head honcho.

    If Trump wins he will have completed what earlier populists, most specifically Ross Perot and Pat Buchanan, had started, but were unable to complete.  A real challenge to the two-party duopoly could have taken place had Perot and Buchanan stuck with the Reform Party and built it up as a legitimate alternative.

    A Trump Presidency will, at the very least, put a temporary halt to the totalitarian liberal order’s relentless drive to render American sovereignty and create a multicultural society via mass controlled (and uncontrolled) immigration.  There would be no return from such a demographic onslaught and political realignment, at least through the ballot box, with the only alternative being secession or the emergence of a strongman who would violently suppress the Left.

    A Trump victory would not only be a blow against the entrenched political class, but like Gibson’s great movie, it would be a mighty and much needed knockdown of the mass media.  No presidential candidate has ever dared to openly take on the mainstream media and expose it for what it truly is – the propaganda arm for the New World Order and the purveyors of degenerate cultural Marxism.

    The protagonist in The Passion of the Christ has often been referred to as “The Prince of Peace,” which is somewhat of a misnomer.  The Christ of the Scriptures is a fighter who spends a good portion of His ministry battling and upbraiding the corrupt Church officials and hierarchy of the day who were not properly shepherding His flock.

    Similarly, Donald Trump has always considered himself a fighter (counter puncher) who has promised to get rid of the corruption and criminality that pervades the political establishment, especially the Clinton cartel.  Trump is uniquely qualified for such a task because, unlike nearly every other politician, he is not beholding financially to anyone.

    Most importantly, Trump will set a new course in US foreign policy which will lead to a de-escalation in tensions around the globe especially with Russia.  High praise was attributed to the peacemakers by the Author of the Beatitudes who said: “Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called children of God.”

    Not only for America, but a Trump victory will have positive reverberations throughout the Western world which would surpass that of the surprising Brexit vote.  European anti-immigration groups and organizations would undoubtedly become further emboldened both psychologically and financially in their struggle to stem the tide of massive unwanted and society-wrecking immigration.  There is no telling what the effect would be when the chief executive of the world’s dominant power would be in sympathy with those who have courageously sought to preserve their families, heritage and way of life from the wicked designs of the New World Order.

    While Mel Gibson self destructed after the phenomenal success of the The Passion of the Christ, his movie still stands not only as an inspirational and moving cinematic masterpiece, but as a glorious blow against the Establishment.  A Trump victory could mean an even greater strike against our globalist masters.

  • FBI Agents: Hillary Is The "Antichrist Personified"

    Having exposed the mutinous divide between The FBI and The Department of Justice, it appears the drip-drip-drip leaky bucket has turned into a spigot as The Guardian cites several seriously pissed off agents describe the FBI as "Trumplandia."

    As The Hill details, in a report published Thursday, multiple sources within the FBI say that deep antipathy toward Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and anger that FBI Director James Comey did not bring charges against her this summer have motivated leaks that could damage her presidential campaign.

    One agent told The Guardian that many at the bureau view Clinton as the “antichrist” and are supportive of Trump.

    The currently serving FBI agent said Clinton is “the antichrist personified to a large swath of FBI personnel,” and that “the reason why they’re leaking is they’re pro-Trump.”

     

    “The FBI is Trumpland,” said one current agent.

    But another FBI source disputed the level of support Trump has within the bureau, according to The Guardian.

    “There are lots of people who don’t think Trump is qualified, but also believe Clinton is corrupt,” the source said. “What you hear a lot is that it’s a bad choice, between an incompetent and a corrupt politician.”

    According to the report, the tensions boiled over in July when Comey declined to recommend charges against the Democratic presidential nominee for possibly mishandling classified information through her use of a private email server to conduct government business, according to the FBI agent.

    “Many FBI agents were upset at the director, not because he didn’t [recommend to] indict, but they believe he threw the FBI under the bus by taking the heat away from DoJ [Department of Justice],” the former bureau official said.

    As The Hill concludes, there have been further leaks about internal fights within the FBI and other possible investigations since the Comey news broke, all of which has suggested an agency in a public war with itself.

  • Voter Fraud Allegations Surface In California As Man Discovers 83 Live Ballots At His Doorstep

    For the past couple of days we’ve been writing about a police investigation underway in Delaware County, PA related to a potentially illegal scheme to fraudulently register voters.  As it turns out, the left coast may be experiencing some voter fraud of their own…shocking. 

    According Fox News, San Pedro, CA resident Jerry Mosna got a bit of a surprise on Saturday morning when he discovered 83 actual live 2016 ballots on his doorstep.  All 83 of the ballots were addressed to his neighbor but each had a different name.  Given that his neighbor is an 89-year old lady, who lives alone in her two bedroom apartment, Mosna was fairly confident that the ballots were not intended for her and reported them to his county registrar. 

    The 83 ballots, each unused, were addressed to different people, all supposedly living in his elderly neighbor’s two-bedroom apartment.

     

    “I think this is spooky,” Mosna said. “All the different names, none we recognize, all at one address.”

     

    His wife, Madalena Mosna, noted their 89-year-old neighbor lives by herself, and, “Eighty people can’t fit in that apartment.”

     

    They took the ballots to the Los Angeles Police Department, but were directed to the post office. They felt little comfort there would be an investigation, and called another neighbor, John Cracchiolo – who contacted the Los Angeles County Registrar’s office.

     

    A spokeswoman for the Registrar said the office will investigate. Both Cracchiolo and Jerry Mosna told FoxNews.com they think they stumbled upon a case of fraud.

    Ballots

     

    Of course, just like in Pennsylvania, California officials are warning people not to jump to conclusions because this is all likely just a simple mistake.  In this particular case, apparently we’re to believe that extra live ballots were randomly printed with the names of 83 different people on them and then sent to the same address because of a “system error.”  We assume the “system error” has been linked back to Russia by 784 distinct U.S. intelligence agencies but we’re awaiting official confirmation on that.

    In a statement, the office of the Registrar said, “We are carefully reviewing our records and gathering information to fully identify what took place.  Our preliminary assessment is that this appears to be an isolated situation related to a system error that occurred causing duplicate ballots to be issued to an address entered for a single voter. We are working directly with the system vendor to ensure the issue is addressed and to identify any similar occurrences.”

    Voter

     

    And we’ll end with this summary just one more time:

  • AP To Clinton Campaign: We Are Preparing To Report FBI Has Thumb Drive, But Can Be Steered Away

    Moments ago, after teasing its twitter followers to “stay tuned for our FBI-DoJ #PodestaEmail special circa 4pm EST” Wikileaks released what appears to be part 28 of its Podesta dump, dubbed the “DoJ/FBI/Huma special” and includes some 1,308 emails, bringing the total to 45,526 in total emails released. 

    We assume the batch will be heavily focused on the DOJ, FBI and Huma, and will present readers with any relevant emails as we find them.

    * * *

    In an email from June 10, 2011 from now-campaign communication manager Jenn Palmieri to John Podesta and Neera Tanden, Palmieri writes – regarding Huma Abedin following the first Anthony Weiner scandal – that it is…

    “Time to get in the haz mat suits… Bust in that house and get Huma the hell out of there.”

    Tanden responds “Lord have mercy.”

    We assume this was a reference to one of the early Anthony Weiner scandals, and a harbinger of things to come regarding Huma’s husband. In retrospect, they should have followed their rhetorical advice.

    * * *

    On August 27, 2015, an email from Lanny Davis, special counsel to President Bill Clinton, and spokesperson for the President and the White House on matters concerning campaign-finance investigations and other legal issues,  appears to suggest that both Fox news and Megyn Kelly were part of the campaign’s pre-coordination with journalists. Davis tells Jen Palmieri the following “personal” thoughts, which suggest getting a guarantee from Megyn Kelly that she won’t be “tough on Hillary” in a proposed interview – which could be a “ratings and media bonanza” – meant to explain why Hillary “wiped” her server.

    Dear Jen,

     

    I know what I’m about to propose is very risky and will be instinctively viewed negatively on the first reaction. But because of the high advantages that I see, perfectly aware of the risks, I think this proposal should be considered.

     

    I propose that the Secretary be on the Megyn Kelly File show for at least 30 minutes. I believe I can reduce the risks, since I know Megyn and Roger Ailes very well, by ensuring that the Secretary will have an opportunity to answer tough questions on emails and other issues without interruption.

     

    In fact, I believe it is in the interest of Secretary Clinton as well as Fox for the questions to be tough, something we should not fear as long as she has an opportunity to answer. I know she will do well with adequate preparation, and especially after yesterday’s excellent statement taking full responsibility for mixing personal an official business on a single email device.

     

    I still believe the issue of the wiping out of uthe private server still needs to be dealt with – e.g., simply stating that was done primarily to protect personal privacy on personal emails but she made the mistake of mixing personal with official on the server because she was using a single device, and she should have been more transparent shortly after she left office.

     

    This interview has the potential to be a ratings and media bonanza. I have confidence she would hit a political home run and have a massive audience to deliver her message without a filter.

     

    Of course there is a risk that Megan will try to show how tough she can be, even tougher than on Trump. I am assuming the worst case on that risk. But if we have a guarantee, which I believe We will get, that she will have an uninterrupted chance to respond to every question, and we have time to prepare, I think this could be a major plus and even a game changer in the various negative narratives about the Secretary being largely inaccessible and sometimes testy with the media.

     

    It would be so much better to be able to talk to you on the phone about this and discuss the pros and cons. If you are willing and available, what would be the best time in the best telephone number?

     

    With warmest regards, and thanks as always for your consideration of my ideas,

     

    Lanny

    He follows up four days later with the following:

    Would love a chance to talk on phone – a few additional background points re conversation I had with Roger Ailes and Megyn some time ago on the subject of HRC pre – announcement.

    It is unclear what was the ultimate fate of the “personal” proposal.

    * * *

    In an email dated 8/11/15, Hillary’s lawyer David Kendall expressed some notable concern about information related the AP preparing to report that the FBI has taken possession of Hillary’s thumb drive, a story which the campaign has vocally denied. Which may also explain why as AP journalist Eric Tucker notes, “If you wanted to steer us away and say that we are misinformed, then I would gladly accept that as well.”

    Recall that on a previous occasion, Kendall made it clear that the official talking point was to deny that the thumb drive had been handed over to the FBI:

     I can see why you might not want to say who the turnover was to, but it seems to me omitting this may be misinterpreted and certainly will trigger another round of questioning. This may defeat the whole point of the exercise. The statement could be read to imply we turned over the thumb drive and server to the State Department—which we didn’t (“There they go again—misleading, devious, non-transparent, tricky etc.”). I would recommend saying “to the Department of Justice.”

    Curiously, over a year later, we learned that the thumb drive had in fact been turned over to the FBI, however as the FBI reported two months ago, it was somehow “lost” in the process.

    A laptop containing a copy, or “archive,” of the emails on Hillary Clinton’s private server was apparently lost—in the postal mail—according to an FBI report released Friday. Along with it, a thumb drive that also contained an archive of Clinton’s emails has been lost and is not in the FBI’s possession.

     

    The thumb drive containing the second copy of the archive also was never found.

     

    “Neither Hanley nor [the Platte River employee] could identify the current whereabouts of the Archive Laptop or the thumb drive containing the archive, and the FBI does not have either item in its possession,” the FBI report stated.

    Full exchange below:

    Hi David,

     

    We have been told, and we are preparing to report, that the FBI has taken possession of the thumb drive that was once in your possession. This is what we have been informed, and we wanted to see whether there was any sort of comment that could be provided. If you wanted to steer us away and say that we are misinformed, then I would gladly accept that as well. But we have solid reason to believe this. We’d welcome any comment you can offer. Thanks very much.

     

    Eric

     

    Wiki

  • Government Pension Plans Are Headed For Disaster

    Submitted by Robert Fellner via The Mises Institute,

    The combined debt held by U.S. public pension plans will top $1.7 trillion next year, according to a just-released report from Moody’s Investors Services.

    This “pension tsunami” has already forced towns like Stockton, California and Detroit, Michigan into bankruptcy. Perhaps no government mismanaged their pension as badly as Puerto Rico, where a $43 billion pension debt forced the commonwealth to seek protection from the federal government after having defaulted on its obligations to bondholders — a default which is expected to spread to retirees in the form of benefit cuts.

    While the disastrous outcome of Puerto Rico’s pension plan — which is projected to completely run out of assets by 2019 — represents the worst-case scenario, the same series of events that led to its demise can be found in most public pension plans nationwide.

    There are three primary culprits that can be found in nearly every state suffering from a public pension crisis:

    1. The use of accounting gimmicks that are designed to shift costs onto future generations — an approach outlawed for private pension plans and rejected by both public and private plans in Canada and Europe.
    2. Lawmakers, acting in their political self-interest, who have catered to the past demands of government unions to enrich their members’ benefits while passing the costs onto future generations.
    3. A broken governance structure where public pension board members are actually penalized in tangible ways for acting responsibly, and are rewarded by choosing to delay the day of reckoning.

    Perhaps the most concise assessment of public pensions came from the former chief actuary for the nation’s largest public pension fund — CalPERS — who noted simply that: “Politics and pensions just don’t mix.”

    And it’s not just "liberal" states like California who have succumbed to the siren call of public pensions. My home state of Nevada — historically thought to be a bastion of limited government thought — is in a proportionally deeper hole than our California neighbors!

     

    The Trouble in Nevada 

    While most financial experts are warning of future teacher shortages, decaying roads, higher taxes and cuts to public safety, the Public Employees’ Retirement System of Nevada (PERS) is confident they can avoid all that by doing one simple thing: produce investment returns higher than what even Warren Buffett expects to get! 

    Because PERS has failed to hit its investment targets over the past 5-, 10-, 15-, 20- and 25-year periods, government workers’ retirement costs have soared to today’s record-high 28 percent of pay (40.5 percent for police and fire officers) — which now consumes more than 12 percent of all Nevada state and local government tax revenue combined.

    And as more money is sent to PERS, less is available for salaries, like the only $34,684 offered to new Clark County school teachers last year — almost certainly a driving factor behind the district’s perennial teacher shortages. 

    What’s worse, over 40 percent of what all government workers — excluding police and fire officers — pay towards PERS is spent on the system’s previously accrued debt, rather than on financing the employee’s future benefits.

    Consequently, all new hires are expected to be net losers under PERS — receiving a benefit worth less than its total cost — which, unsurprisingly, will “negatively affect current teacher quality and retention,” according to scholars at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics.

    Retirement costs for police and fire officers are even higher: Paying PERS an amount equal to 40.5 percent of their salary means fewer cops on the street. 

    The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department, for example, has sat on roughly $100 million in funds explicitly designated for hiring new cops for over a decade now — likely anticipating the future explosion in retirement costs to come. In fact, despite the surplus, Metro is pushing for yet another tax hike, citing their ever-increasing personnel costs.

    But that was just the tip of the iceberg.

    PERS debt is projected to explode over the next decade, rising from roughly $11.4 billion to over $38 billion if the average 5.85 percent annual investment return forecast of the consultant hired by PERS — Wilshire Associates — is accurate:

    To put that in perspective, in 2013 Nevada spent less than $3 billion on police, highways, and fire protection combined.

    Servicing a debt of this size would require similarly massive increases in contribution rates, inevitably requiring lower wages for government workers, cuts to vital services, and higher taxes. 

    At that point, it’s likely that there would simply not be enough taxes to hike and services to cut to make PERS solvent — leaving no other choice but to cut the benefits promised to retirees.

    In order to avoid that fate, and save PERS, Nevada lawmakers must act with the urgency that this situation demands.

    How We Got Here

    PERS is different from retirement accounts in the private sector, where workers’ contributions are deposited directly into individually owned accounts.

    In PERS, workers’ retirement contributions are all pooled together in one large fund, with members promised a fixed future benefit based on salary and work experience — similar to how Social Security works. 

    Consequently, PERS must make a series of projections to determine how much workers must contribute in order to ensure their promised, future benefit is fully funded. One of the most significant projections PERS makes is its assumed 8 percent annual investment return.

    In other words, PERS would consider a $10 payment due in 30 years as fully funded with only $1 today — as the expected gains from investing that $1 would bridge that $9 gap over time.

    Unfortunately, if PERS investments underperform that target, taxpayers and government workers must bail them out via higher contribution rates.

    But using expected investment returns to discount guaranteed future benefits amounts to serious malpractice, which is why such an approach is rejected by private US pension plans, public and private plans in Canada and Europe, and 98 percent of financial economists. US public pension plans are the only dissenters from this consensus.

    The easiest way to see why this is wrong is to look at what happens by raising that rate. Imagine if the governor and the legislature uniformly demanded the PERS board must immediately pay down the approximately $11 billion unfunded liability it currently reports.

    That sounds like an impossible task, right?

    But because of the flawed PERS accounting methodology, the board could appear to pay off that entire amount in an instant. All that would be needed is for the PERS investment advisor to claim that instead of an 8 percent annual return, he now believes PERS can return 10.5 percent.

    Presto! PERS would have eliminated their entire $11 billion debt, and would actually enjoy a slight surplus to boot!

    Of course, their actual unfunded liability — over $50 billion using correct accounting — hasn’t changed.

    If that approach sounds fishy to you, you’re in good company. 

    But given that this is the approach PERS board members employ, they should be extremely vigilant in ensuring their assumed investment return is one that they can confidently expect to hit.

    Instead, they ignore both their poor past performance, as well as the projections of their own, hand-picked consultants who are warning that the board’s assumed annual rate of return is far too high.

    After a careful selection process, PERS last year commissioned a second-opinion review by Wilshire Associates, which, on August 20, 2015, informed the Board that it was most likely to realize only an average annual return of 5.85 percent over the next decade — not the 8 percent minimum PERS must hit to avoid falling further into debt.

    Wilshire’s assessment of lower expected future returns is shared by virtually all major industry experts.

    The McKinsey Global Institute, for example, warned that, “After an era of stellar performance, investment returns are likely to come back down to earth over the next 20 years.” Based on McKinsey’s projections, PERS can expect a 20-year return ranging from as low as 4.6 percent under a “slow-growth” recovery to as high as 7.4 percent under a “growth-recovery” scenario.

    Even investing guru Warren Buffett uses a mere 6.5 percent assumed long-term rate of return for Berkshire Hathaway’s pension plan.

    Because of this, most US public pension plans are now lowering their investment targets. For example, the nation’s largest public pension plan — CalPERS — implemented a plan last year to gradually drop their 7.5 target to 6.5 percent over the next several years.

    A Broken Governance Structure

    So why does PERS — in defiance of its peers, experts, and its own consultants — continue to employ an 8 percent assumed rate of return?

    Political self-interest.

    After PERS investment advisor Ken Lambert offered a few half-hearted reasons to justify dismissing the Wilshire report — the Board asked for a precise calculation of what lowering its rate to 7 percent would entail.

    Such a move would increase the non-safety contribution rate from 28 to 38 percent of pay, at which point, according to Lambert, “We’ll all go home” — apparently predicting massive rebellion by public employees that would drive the current board and its staff out of office.

    PERS here illustrates the core error built into the governance structure of US public pension plans: Short-term board members, with no skin in the game, face a set of incentives where they are actually punished for doing the right thing, and benefit from pushing costs off onto future generations.

    Given that understanding, it’s easy to see why PERS characterized the Wilshire report as meriting “no rush, no real urgency” and containing “nothing [that] is actionable,” when Nevada State Education Association president Ruben Murillo repeatedly, and correctly, pressed the board for answers.

    PERS now finds itself in a Catch-22 situation: Because board members have for so long failed to face reality, costs will skyrocket if they should now adopt correct assumptions. Yet, failing to do so will only compound their initial mistake — and the resultant carnage — when the day of reckoning finally arrives.

    Significantly, because PERS only has about 72 cents of every dollar of promised benefits on hand, the system actually needs to outperform its 8 percent investment target. Only then would the system have enough money to make good on its promises.

    Making matters worse is the fact that PERS is now cash-flow negative — paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxpayer and employee contributions. 

    If this trend persists and Wilshire’s projected investment returns are realized, PERS could easily find itself approaching a funded ratio of only 50 percent — which is considered a “crisis-point” that is “very difficult to climb out of,” by CalPERS Chief Investment Officer Ted Eliopoulos.

    Even though the call for reform enjoys widespread, bipartisan support and includes at least one former PERS board member, Warren Buffett’s assessment of public pensions still rings sadly true in Nevada:

    There probably is more managerial ignorance on pension costs than any other cost item of remotely similar magnitude. And, as will become so expensively clear to citizens in future decades, there has been even greater electorate ignorance of governmental pension costs.

    Thankfully, there is still time left to save PERS, but the particulars of reform are much less important than acknowledging the fundamental problems. As officials with Oregon’s pension plan stated of their similar crisis: “This is becoming a moral issue. We can’t just talk about numbers anymore.”

    Conclusion

    In theory, government is ostensibly designed to override the allegedly short-sighted, greedy nature of individual actors with policies that are long-term oriented and designed to maximize the general welfare.

    Yet, as the case of public pensions (not to mention infrastructure spending, the national debt, entitlements, etc.) reveals, the political process actually does the exact opposite: it actually rewards those who underfund the present and defray costs onto future generations.

    Thus, asking for lawmakers to “be more responsible” or “think about the future” misses the point. We are all self-interested actors. Instead of wishing this wasn’t so, it would be vastly more effective to embrace this reality and restrict the role of government to only those areas that it is well-equipped to provide.

    As Ron Seeling said, “Politics and pensions just don’t mix. That’s all there is to it.”

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Today’s News 3rd November 2016

  • Military Miscalculations

    By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

    Market dislocations occur when financial markets, operating under stressful conditions, experience large widespread asset mispricing.

    Welcome to this week’s edition of “World Out Of Whack” where every Wednesday we take time out of our day to laugh, poke fun at and present to you absurdity in global financial markets in all its glorious insanity.

    While we enjoy a good laugh, the truth is that the first step to protecting ourselves from losses is to protect ourselves from ignorance. Think of the “World Out Of Whack” as your double thick armour plated side impact protection system in a financial world littered with drunk drivers.

    Selfishly we also know that the biggest (and often the fastest) returns come from asymmetric market moves. But, in order to identify these moves we must first identify where they live.

    Occasionally we find opportunities where we can buy (or sell) assets for mere cents on the dollar – because, after all, we are capitalists.

    In this week’s edition of the WOW we’re covering military miscalculations

    When it comes to the stock and bond markets, the mandate’s pretty simple. Deny, then inflate another bubble. The central banks will continue to do this until the market takes their ability to do so away. It’s going to be quite something to witness.

    What about geopolitics, though?

    This is a bit trickier to determine, though for anyone with a history book or two thumbs and a search engine we know it can affect asset prices and global capital flows in ways that central bankers only wished they could.

    NATO’s biggest buildup on Russia’s borders since the cold war. That’s what the Guardian’s calling it.

    “Britain is sending fighter jets next year to Romania. The US is dispatching troops, tanks and artillery to Poland. Germany, Canada and other Nato countries also pledged forces at a meeting on Wednesday of defence chiefs in Brussels.”

    NATO is already wobblier than a 2 year old without trainer wheels, and EU disintegration will continue to accelerate as nationalistic parties are elected across Europe. With an increasing focus on protecting their self interests rather than that of Europe, NATO’s days are probably numbered.

    Germany, the strongest military power in Europe will remain reluctant to “lead the charge” due to it’s …ahem history, and the Brits reeling from Brexit have little appetite for military aggression, and that really leaves the empire. You see Europe is going to continue building walls. That’s defensive not aggressive.

    Then of course there is the South China sea dispute.

    US South China Sea Dispute

    Gone are the days when challenging the empire was a no-no. Tis no trivial matter.

    China will continue to flex its muscles. After all its achilles heel is that its access to global sea lanes is blocked by a ring of small islands. Controlling these is both militarily strategic as well as economically strategic. America will increasingly be put to the test.

    The Empire’s Involvement

    Let me be clear. America is not threatened in any way. No foreign power will attack the US. But then they don’t need to. Osama Bin Liner did more damage with a rag tag army of sandal-wearing goat herders than any nation state has managed to do since WWII. Like all empires in their final years, the threat comes from within. Washington doing what Washington does: something incredibly stupid.

    Which of course brings us to crook vs jerk.

    It’s one reason the American elections actually matter this time around, which makes this Presidential election unusual.

    Trump wants to “make America great”. War with Russia appears thankfully not to have crossed his mind.

    My guess is he’d rather build a new hotel in Moscow and bring reality TV to the White House than sit in the radiation footprint Washington after poking the bear.

    Hillary, on the other hand, is all for it. Her military understanding being that of steamed spinach, and being surrounded by an entire cadre of imbeciles who’ve gone before her: Bush, Cheney, Obama, that guy Bill.

    In a recent speech she made her stance very clear:

    “Our power comes with a responsibility to lead, humbly, thoughtfully, and with a fierce commitment to our values — because when America fails to lead we leave a vacuum that either causes chaos or other countries or networks rushing to fill the void.”

    Oh, you mean like the power vacuums in the middle east now filled by ISIS?

    And this doozy:

    “We can’t cozy up to dictators, we have to stand up to them.”

    Surely she can’t be referring to her push to take down Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. That gambit left Libya in absolute chaos, resulting in the terror group Daesh rising in power and displacing an estimated 400,000 people, all of them mad at America and Europeans and now targeting them in their home towns.

    She seems eager to step up the game from her predecessors who made a habit of only attacked small third world countries with sand.

    “We need to respond to evolving threats, from states like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.”

     

    “We need a military that is ready and agile so that it can meet the full range of threats — and operate on short notice across every domain — not just land, sea, air, and space, but also cyber space.”

    Russia, sweetheart, is a nuclear power. China, a nuclear power.

    Iran and North Korea? Look cupcake, if you can’t control a tiny pile of sand like Iraq, pray tell how you’re going to go after Iran.

    The voting populace doesn’t want it. “Let me just relax and watch gratuitous violence on Netflix, dammit. And I don’t give a hoot about Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, or Yemen and I sure as hell don’t want to pay for it.”

    Even those who can’t read (a substantial and growing number) question why on earth US troops loiter in far flung places being terribly unsuccessful – repeatedly.

    us-military-presence-abroad_mapbuilder

    The shortlist of active candidates doesn’t look pretty either:

    • Iraq? a mess with no control and a power vacuum (as discussed in “7 Steps to the Easiest Short in Recent History.”) which looks a whole lot worse than Saddam.
    • Afghanistan? Disaster. Still no control. Billions spent.
    • Libya? Whoohoo, Gaddafi is overthrown and now the refugees can pour into Europe unrestrained. Oops, hadn’t thought of that. Actions have consequences. Someone ought to tell these guys.
    • The war in Somalia where US forces are fighting a clandestine war against rebels sucks more capital from the US treasury. But never mind, the world still wants US debt… until it doesn’t.
    • The Saudis propped up by Washington are now murdering Yemenis. Wining friends and influencing people folks.
    • Assad is bad and so supporting ISIS in Syria while fighting them in Iraq, Afghanistan and increasingly on US streets is logical. What was the definition of insanity again?

    I could list many more but you get the picture.

    In fact, the US has over 1,400 military bases in over 120 countries. Not bad for a country which is importing capital rather than exporting it.

    And while this is happening, the rest of the world pivots.

    Russia is getting chummy with Iran, China, and now Turkey, which for scholars of history is the pivotal access point for both Europe and the Arab world. The Asian countries increasingly move East towards China, the latest being Duterte of the Philippines who has promised to kick the US out.

    screen-shot-2016-11-02-at-9-51-55-am

    “For as long as I am there, do not treat us like a doormat because you’ll be sorry for it. I will not speak with you. I can always go to China.”

    Maybe it’s just me but “go to hell you son of a whore” sounds awfully like Asia pivoting away from the US. Puts a bit of a spanner in the Obama administrations “Pivot Asia” foreign policy plan.

    Some Troubling Signs

    What has been troubling to watch from afar and as a non-American who typically doesn’t care who wins most elections, is the very obvious prepping of war Hillary’s camp has been doing over the last few months.

    The Russians are hacking the election, they’re dangerous, they’re expanding, they’re killing ISIS civilians in Syria, and they may even be the cause of global warming climate change not to mention diabetes.

    It stands to reason: after all, Bill managed to distract an easily distracted electorate from his affair with Monica Lewinsky by launching missiles at Sudan. Why not threaten Russia to distract from the now daily barrage of revelations about the Clinton crime syndicate? Peter Thiel stated the threat lucidly in his recent address at the National Press club:

    “Now Hillary Clinton has called for a no fly zone over Syria. Incredibly that would be a mistake even more reckless than invading Iraq, since most of the planes flying over Syria today are Russian planes, Clintons proposed course of action would do worse than involve us in a messy civil war, it would risk a direct nuclear conflict.”

    Trump is a blowhard and Hillary part of the deep state. Happy days!

    And now it seems that the outcome rests on a large swathe of the electorate drunk on football, Kim Kardashian’s latest antics, and prime time TV. Geopolitical knowledge? Not featuring so much.

    The risk is that Washington in desperation does something phenomenally stupid rather than simply dumb which it’s proven itself quite adept at.

    The empire will continue to lose its grip but if history is any indication (and it is) then it may not do so quietly.

    Question

    Military Miscalculations Poll

    Cast your vote here and also see what others the biggest threat is

    Know anyone that might enjoy this? Please share this with them.

    Investing and protecting our capital in a world which is enjoying the most severe distortions of any period in mans recorded history means that a different approach is required. And traditional portfolio management fails miserably to accomplish this.

    And so our goal here is simple: protecting the majority of our wealth from the inevitable consequences of absurdity, while finding the most asymmetric investment opportunities for our capital. Ironically, such opportunities are a result of the actions which have landed the world in such trouble to begin with.

    – Chris

    Military intelligence is a contradiction in terms.” — Groucho Marx

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  • Russia: The West Is Trapped In Its Own "Propaganda-Created World"

    Submitted by James Holbrooks via TheAntiMedia.org,

    As the American corporate media continues to tow the official line that Russia is working to undermine U.S. elections, the head of the U.K.’s MI5 spoke with the Guardian on Tuesday. It was the first time an acting spy chief has given a newspaper interview in the agency’s 107-year history, and the subject matter important enough to prompt such an atypical occurrence was hardly a surprising one — Russia.

    Or, more accurately, Russia as the big bad enemy.

    “Russia increasingly seems to define itself by opposition to the west and seems to act accordingly,” MI5 chief Andrew Parker told the Guardian. “You can see that on the ground with Russia’s activities in Ukraine and Syria. But there is high-volume activity out of sight with the cyber-threat.”

     

    “Russia has been a covert threat for decades,” he continued. Then, evoking the U.S. election hacking hype, he added, “What’s different these days is that there are more and more methods available.”

    And according to Parker, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is utilizing these methods in “increasingly aggressive ways” to project its global influence:

    “It is using its wide range of state organs and powers to push its foreign policy abroad in increasingly aggressive ways — involving propaganda, espionage, subversion and cyber-attacks. Russia is at work across Europe and in the U.K. today.”

    The Kremlin was quick to issue a response to the Parker interview, one the Guardian detailed in a follow-up piece.

    “Those words do not correspond to reality,” spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said flatly. With regard to alleged U.S. election tampering, he added, “Until someone produces proof, we will consider those statements unfounded and groundless.”

    Russia’s embassy in London, meanwhile, stated on Twitter it was “saddened to see a professional trapped to [sic] his own propaganda-created world.” Accompanying that tweet was the movie poster for the 1966 film The Russians are Coming, the Russians are Coming.

    In the buildup to the U.S. presidential election on November 8 — and as Russian submarines are spotted off the British coast — Western nations are again amping up the anti-Russian narrative.

    On October 7, for instance, the United States officially accused Russia of attempting to intervene in the U.S. political system. Then, just days ago, Western member countries of the G7 alliance agreed that continued sanctions against Russia for its role in Ukraine and Syria were “vital.”

    For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to such recriminations has been largely one of amusement, as demonstrated by comments he made last week.

    While speaking to foreign policy experts in Sochi, Putin dismissed the “hysteria about Russia’s influence on the U.S. presidential election,” adding the “mythical and fictitious” issue has been used to distract the American voter from real problems facing the United States government.

    “Does anyone seriously think Russia can somehow influence the American people’s choice?” Putin asked. “Is America some kind of banana republic? America is a great power!”

    A great power, the Russian president made certain to note, with a top notch propaganda arm:

    “I would like to have such propaganda machine in Russia, but, regrettably, there is no such thing,” Putin said, touching on the bought and paid for nature of Western corporate media. We don’t have such global media as CNN, BBC and others.”

  • Currency Chaos Continues As Gold Tops $1300 Again, Nasdaq Futures Tumble Below Key Support

    While Facebook's after-hours demise weighed on stock indices (Nasdaq futures broke key 100-DMA support), the overnight action in Asia is centered on currency turmoiling…

    Facebook's plunge is hammering the NASDAQ but that drop accelerate as currencies snapped in AsiaPac…

     

    Pushing Nasdaq futures below the key 100-day moving-average…

     

    But the real fun is in Currencies tonight… (as traders focus on the World Series)

    USDJPY broke below its 100-DMA, having fallen (Yen strength) non-stop since The BoJ…

     

    Plunging through 103.00 stops…Chatter of a FOX news headline triggering the move…

    And the Mexican Peso pounding continues, testing to 19.50..

     

    With the USD Index extending its losses to three-week lows…

     

    Sending Bitcoin soaring..

     

    And the Long Bond is ripping higher (yields lower)…

     

    And safe haven bids have pushed gold back above $1300…

  • Secret Recordings Fueled Mutinous FBI Investigation of Clintons Despite DOJ Orders To "Stand Down"

    It’s looking increasingly like there is an ongoing mutiny underway within the FBI as the Wall Street Journal is reporting that, according to “officials at multiple agencies”, FBI agents felt they had adequate evidence, including “secret recordings of a suspect talking about the Clinton Foundation”, to pursue an investigation of the Clinton Foundation but were repeatedly obstructed by officials at the Department of Justice.

    Secret recordings of a suspect talking about the Clinton Foundation fueled an internal battle between FBI agents who wanted to pursue the case and corruption prosecutors who viewed the statements as worthless hearsay, people familiar with the matter said.

     

    The roots of the dispute lie in a disagreement over the strength of the case, these people said, which broadly centered on whether Clinton Foundation contributors received favorable treatment from the State Department under Hillary Clinton.

     

    Senior officials in the Justice Department and the FBI didn’t think much of the evidence, while investigators believed they had promising leads their bosses wouldn’t let them pursue, they said.

    Despite clear signals from the Justice Department to abandon the Clinton Foundation inquiries, many FBI agents refused to stand down.  Then, earlier this year in February 2016, the FBI presented initial evidence at a meeting with Leslie Caldwell, the head of the DOJ’s criminal division, after which agents were delivered a clear message that “we’re done here.”  But, as the WSJ points out, DOJ became increasing frustrated with FBI agents that were “disregarding or disobeying their instructions” which subsequently prompted an emphatic “stand down” message from the DOJ to “all the offices involved.”

    As 2015 came to a close, the FBI and Justice Department had a general understanding that neither side would take major action on Clinton Foundation matters without meeting and discussing it first. In February, a meeting was held in Washington among FBI officials, public-integrity prosecutors and Leslie Caldwell, the head of the Justice Department’s criminal division. Prosecutors from the Eastern District of New York—Mr. Capers’ office—didn’t attend, these people said.

     

    The public-integrity prosecutors weren’t impressed with the FBI presentation, people familiar with the discussion said. “The message was, ‘We’re done here,’ ” a person familiar with the matter said.

     

    Justice Department officials became increasingly frustrated that the agents seemed to be disregarding or disobeying their instructions.

     

    Following the February meeting, officials at Justice Department headquarters sent a message to all the offices involved to “stand down,’’ a person familiar with the matter said.

     

    The FBI had secretly recorded conversations of a suspect in a public-corruption case talking about alleged deals the Clintons made, these people said. The agents listening to the recordings couldn’t tell from the conversations if what the suspect was describing was accurate, but it was, they thought, worth checking out.

    Hillary

     

    Despite the warnings, FBI agents continued to press forward leading to a tense August 12th call between a “senior DOJ official” and the FBI deputy director, Andrew McCabe, which ended abruptly when McCabe bluntly asked “are you telling me that I need to shut down a validly predicated investigation?”

    In subsequent conversations with the Justice Department, Mr. Capers told officials in Washington that the FBI agents on the case “won’t let it go,” these people said.

     

    As a result of those complaints, these people said, a senior Justice Department official called the FBI deputy director, Mr. McCabe, on Aug. 12 to say the agents in New York seemed to be disregarding or disobeying their instructions, these people said. The conversation was a tense one, they said, and at one point Mr. McCabe asked, “Are you telling me that I need to shut down a validly predicated investigation?’’ The senior Justice Department official replied: ”Of course not.”

    With that, it seems that we’re starting to get a little more insight into why the FBI didn’t “follow protocol” by alerting the DOJ before sending their most recent letter to Congress announcing the re-opening of Hillary’s email investigation.

    Meanwhile, Fox News reported earlier this evening that “sources” claim to have an “avalanche of evidence” in their case against Hillary and that “barring obstruction” they would continue to push for an indictment.  The next 5 days should be very interesting.

  • Not Guilty: The Power Of Nullification To Counteract Government Tyranny

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “The people have the power, all we have to do is awaken that power in the people. The people are unaware. They’re not educated to realize that they have power. The system is so geared that everyone believes the government will fix everything. We are the government.”—John Lennon

    How do you balance the scales of justice at a time when Americans are being tasered, tear-gassed, pepper-sprayed, hit with batons, shot with rubber bullets and real bullets, blasted with sound cannons, detained in cages and kennels, sicced by police dogs, arrested and jailed for challenging the government’s excesses, abuses and power-grabs?

    Politics won’t fix a system that is broken beyond repair.

    No matter who sits in the White House, the shadow government will continue to call the shots behind the scenes.

    Relying on the courts to restore justice seems futile.

    Indeed, with every ruling handed down, it becomes more apparent that we live in an age of hollow justice, with government courts, largely lacking in vision and scope, rendering narrow rulings focused on the letter of the law. This is true at all levels of the judiciary, but especially so in the highest court of the land, the U.S. Supreme Court, which is seemingly more concerned with establishing order and protecting government agents than with upholding the rights enshrined in the Constitution.

    Even so, justice matters.

    It matters whether you’re a rancher protesting a federal land-grab by the Bureau of Land Management, a Native American protesting an oil pipeline that will endanger sacred sites and pollute water supplies, or an African-American taking to the streets to protest yet another police shooting of an unarmed citizen.

    Unfortunately, protests and populist movements haven’t done much to push back against an authoritarian regime that is deaf to our cries, dumb to our troubles, blind to our needs, and accountable to no one.

    It doesn’t matter who the activists are (environmentalists, peaceniks, Native Americans, Black Lives Matter, Occupy, or the Bundys and their followers) or what the source of the discontent is (endless wars abroad, police shootings, contaminated drinking water, government land-grabs), the government’s modus operandi has remained the same: shut down the protests using all means available, prosecute First Amendment activities to the fullest extent of the law, and discourage any future civil uprisings by criminalizing expressive activities, labelling dissidents as extremists or terrorists, and conducting widespread surveillance on the general populace in order to put down any whispers of resistance before it can take root.

    Thus, if there is any means left to us for thwarting the government in its relentless march towards outright dictatorship, it may rest with the power of juries and local governments to invalidate governmental laws, tactics and policies that are illegitimate, egregious or blatantly unconstitutional.

    Just recently, in fact, an Oregon jury rejected the government’s attempts to prosecute seven activists who staged a six-week, armed takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge.

    In finding the defendants not guilty—of conspiracy to impede federal officers, of possession of firearms in a federal facility, and of stealing a government-owned truck—the jury sent its own message to the government and those following the case: justice matters.

    Many other equally sincere activists with eloquent lawyers and ardent supporters have gone to jail for lesser offenses than those committed at the Malheur Refuge, so what made the difference here?

    The jury made all the difference.

    These seven Oregon protesters were found not guilty because a jury of their peers recognized the sincerity of their convictions, sympathized with the complaints against an overreaching government, and balanced the scales of justice using the only tools available to them: common sense, compassion and the power of the jury box.

    Jury nullification works.

    As law professor Ilya Somin explains, jury nullification is the practice by which a jury refuses to convict someone accused of a crime if they believe the “law in question is unjust or the punishment is excessive.” According to former federal prosecutor Paul Butler, the doctrine of jury nullification is “premised on the idea that ordinary citizens, not government officials, should have the final say as to whether a person should be punished.”

    Imagine that: a world where the citizenry—not the government or its corporate controllers—actually calls the shots and determines what is just.

    “We the people” can and should be determining what laws are just, what activities are criminal and who can be jailed for what crimes.

    This is where the power of jury nullification is so critical: to reject inane laws and extreme sentences and counteract the edicts of a profit-driven governmental elite that sees nothing wrong with jailing someone for a lifetime for a relatively insignificant crime.

    Jury nullification is a powerful reminder that, as the Constitution tells us, “we the people” are the government.

    For too long we’ve allowed our so-called “representatives” to call the shots. Now it’s time to restore the citizenry to their rightful place in the republic: as the masters, not the servants.

    Nullification is one way of doing so.

    Various cities and states have been using this historic doctrine with mixed results on issues as wide ranging as gun control and healthcare to “claim freedom from federal laws they find onerous or wrongheaded.”

    Where nullification can be particularly powerful, however, is in the hands of the juror.

    The reality with which we must contend is that justice in America is reserved for those who can afford to buy their way out of jail.

    For the rest of us who are dependent on the “fairness” of the system, there exists a multitude of ways in which justice can and does go wrong every day. Police misconduct. Prosecutorial misconduct. Judicial bias. Inadequate defense. Prosecutors who care more about winning a case than seeking justice. Judges who care more about what is legal than what is just. Jurors who know nothing of the law and are left to deliberate in the dark about life-and-death decisions. And an overwhelming body of laws, statutes and ordinances that render the average American a criminal, no matter how law-abiding they might think themselves.

    If you’re to have any hope of remaining free—and I use that word loosely—your best bet remains in your fellow citizens.

    Your fellow citizens may not know what the Constitution says and they may not know what the laws are, but if you’re lucky, those who serve on a jury will have a conscience that speaks louder than the legalistic tones of the prosecutors and the judges and reminds them that justice and fairness go hand in hand.

    That’s ultimately what jury nullification is all about: restoring a sense of fairness to our system of justice. It’s the best protection for “we the people” against the oppression and tyranny of the government, and God knows, we can use all the protection we can get.

    It’s also a powerful way to remind the government—all of those bureaucrats who have appointed themselves judge, jury and jailer over all that we are, have and do—that we’re the ones who set the rules.

    So how do you not only push back against the police state’s bureaucracy, corruption and cruelty but also launch a counterrevolution aimed at reclaiming control over the government using nonviolent means?

    You start by changing the rules and engaging in some (nonviolent) guerilla tactics.

    Employ militant nonviolent resistance and civil disobedience, which Martin Luther King Jr. used to great effect through the use of sit-ins, boycotts and marches.

    Take part in grassroots activism, which takes a trickle-up approach to governmental reform by implementing change at the local level (in other words, think nationally, but act locally).

    And then, as I explain in more detail in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, nullify everything. Nullify the court cases. Nullify the laws. Nullify everything the government does that is illegitimate, egregious or blatantly unconstitutional.

  • According To Obama, This Is The Reason Why Hillary Isn't "50 Points Ahead"

    Having expressed her frustration at not being 50 points ahead against a man who is supported by mere deplorables…

     

    Hillary Clinton piled on this week exclaiming Trump supporters as "dark ", "divisive", and "angry" (all 40-plus percent of the US population of them)…

     

    And so, with neither the racist nor the Putin-puppet label sticking to Trump, as Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger so eloquently notes, Team Clinton and its lobotomized surrogates have regressed back to square one: playing the woman card.

    As a reminder Krieger noted earlier this week, a professor of linguistics at Berkeley just published an article at Time claiming (with zero evidence of course), that the Hillary Clinton email server scandal only exists because she is a woman. Here’s a brief snippet of what she said:

    ‘It’s not about emails; it’s about public communication by a woman’

     

    I am mad. I am mad because I am scared. And if you are a woman, you should be, too. Emailgate is a bitch hunt, but the target is not Hillary Clinton. It’s us.

     

    The only reason the whole email flap has legs is because the candidate is female. Can you imagine this happening to a man? Clinton is guilty of SWF (Speaking While Female), and emailgate is just a reminder to us all that she has no business doing what she’s doing and must be punished, for the sake of all decent women everywhere. There is so much of that going around.

     

    It’s not about emails; it’s about public communication by a woman in general. Of course, in the year 2016, no one (probably not even The Donald) could make this argument explicitly. After all, he and his fellow Republicans are not waging a war on women. How do we know that? They have said so. And they’re men, so they must be telling the truth.

    I know. It’s really hard to believe the above is real, but it is.

    But now President Obama himself is now getting in the mud.

    Here’s what he had to say today in Ohio, according to NBC:

    COLUMBUS, Ohio — President Barack Obama said Tuesday that sexism is to blame for the tight race for the White House, telling an Ohio crowd that “Hillary Clinton is consistently treated differently than just about any other candidate I see out there.”

     

    Obama went on: “There’s a reason we haven’t had a woman president.”

     

    Speaking specifically to “the guys out there,” Obama told them to “look inside yourself and ask yourself, if you’re having problems with this stuff how much of it is that we’re just not used to it?”

    Yep, because the American public handily elected a black man twice, but somehow we all draw the line at a woman. Perhaps, just perhaps, the problem is with Hillary.

    Moving along, all this reminded me of a very prescient comment made by Glenn Greenwald a couple of years ago, which I highlighted in the post, Glenn Greenwald on the 2016 Elections – “They’ll Probably Have a Gay Person After Hillary”:

    Hillary is banal, corrupted, drained of vibrancy and passion. I mean, she’s been around forever, the Clinton circle. She’s a fucking hawk and like a neocon, practically. She’s surrounded by all these sleazy money types who are just corrupting everything everywhere. But she’s going to be the first female president, and women in America are going to be completely invested in her candidacy. Opposition to her is going to be depicted as misogynistic, like opposition to Obama has been depicted as racist. It’s going to be this completely symbolic messaging that’s going to overshadow the fact that she’ll do nothing but continue everything in pursuit of her own power. They’ll probably have a gay person after Hillary who’s just going to do the same thing.

    Obama could’ve gone out on a high note, but he decided to go low.

    Sad!

  • Why The U.S. Presidential Election Has The Entire World Confused

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    Well, everyone thought it was a sure thing — Hillary Clinton had the White House in the bag; the entire political system from the DNC to the RNC and the mainstream media had already called the election over and done. Online gambling sites listed Clinton as a sure bet and Irish site Paddy Power even paid out one million dollars on the assumption of a Clinton win.  And then, one Weiner ruined everything — Anthony Weiner.

    The revelation of an October surprise re-opening of the FBI’s investigation into Hillary Clinton’s misuse of classified data on private and vulnerable email servers does not come as a shock to me, but it certainly does to many people around the world.  Hundreds of mainstream outlets are scrambling to spin the news as misconduct by the FBI rather than a victory for the halls of justice.  Numerous alternative media analysts are rushing to cover their butts and admit that there is now a “chance” of a Trump win.  Confusion reigns supreme as the weirdest election in U.S. history continues to bewilder observers.

    The first issue that needs to be addressed is the lack of an open mind displayed by some when it comes to the real purpose behind this election.  The second issue here, of course, is one of timing.

    Through the majority of this election cycle the public consensus has been that Clinton will win. Some argued that Trump would not be able to compete with the leftist media empire standing against him, while others have argued that the entire system including the Republican establishment would ensure that Trump would fail.  The alternative media has in the past simply pointed out that elections have always been rigged, either by the elites playing both sides of the competition, or through outright voter fraud.  They have assumed that the elites want Clinton, and therefore, the election has already been decided.

    I tend to agree with the latter point of view, though I disagree with the conclusion.  U.S. elections are indeed controlled, and have been for decades, primarily through the false left/right paradigm.  However, as I have been pointing out since I correctly predicted the success of the Brexit referendum, I don’t think that Clinton is the choice of the elites.

    I outline my reasons for this conclusion in-depth in articles like '2016 Will End With Economic Instability And A Trump Presidency', published in August.  For the past several months it seems as though I have been the only person holding the view that Trump will be president.  Only in the past few days have I received emails from readers stating that they used to think I was probably crazy, but now they aren’t so sure…

    To be clear, my position is that Trump is slated to take the White House and that this is by design.  This has been my position since before Trump won the Republican Primaries, it was my position when the election cycle began, it has never changed, nor have my views on the reasons for this outcome ever changed.  Of course, the election is not over yet, and if Clinton ends up soiling the already thoroughly soiled Oval Office with her presence, then everyone can color me confused as well.  That said, here are some issues that I think many people are overlooking when coming to conclusions on the election and the events surrounding it.

    Clinton Is The Worst Candidate The Elites Could Have Chosen

    I have been studying the activities and behaviors of establishment elites for over a decade and I have to say… they are not stupid.  They certainly have hubris, and I would not call them “wise,” but they are definitely devious.  They know how to rig a game.  They know how to play both sides.  They know how to cheat to get what they want when it comes to politics and how to manufacture consent from portions of the public.  They’ve been doing it a long time.  They have mastered it.

    So, in my view it is rather insane for the elites to field a candidate such as Hillary Clinton IF the entirety of their globalist empire hangs in the balance (I don't think it does).  Though she is fond of BleachBit, the woman is unbleachable.  With a decades-long rap sheet from her work at Rose Law Firm (in which document destruction and “misplacement” was apparently routine) to her interference with investigations into Bill Clinton’s sexual indiscretions, to the strange odyssey surrounding her lies on the Benghazi attack, as well as her rampant mishandling of classified documents as head of the State Department, not to mention the Clinton Foundation’s pay to play scandals, it is impossible to endear her to the masses.  Her dismal crowd turnouts are rather indicative of this.

    On top of all this, Clinton’s anti-Russia rhetoric is coming off as absolutely crazy, and I think this is by design.  Many in the alternative media, while assuming that Clinton is paving the way for WWIII, forget that the average person may not be up to speed on the same information we are, but most of them aren’t ignorant.  Clinton’s ravings on Russian hacking and potential war are even putting liberals off rather than inspiring their confidence.

    One would think that if the elites have their veritable pick of any politician to represent their interests in the White House and convince the American public to go along for the ride, Clinton would be the worst choice. Even if the intention were to rig the election in favor of Clinton, she would be a lame-duck president the second she took office, and, her mere presence would galvanize conservatives to the point of mass rebellion.

    This is not generally how the elites play the game.  Instead, they prefer co-option to direct confrontation.

    Which President Is Better For The Elites During An Economic Breakdown?

    If you consider the premise that Clinton is NOT the chosen one, and that the entire election is theater, the situation changes rather drastically.

    Those that follow the underlying economic data that the mainstream tends to ignore know that large swaths of the global financial system are not long for this world. With Europe’s banking system plunging towards a Lehman-style event, the OPEC production freeze deal ready to fall apart yet again, and the Federal Reserve threatening to raise rates into recessionary conditions in December, our already floundering fiscal structure is approaching another crisis.

    My question has always been who would the elites rather have in office when this crisis occurs?  I’ve said it a hundred times before and I’ll say it again here: with Clinton in office, globalists and international financiers get the blame for any economic downturn.  With Trump in office, conservative movements will be blamed.  In fact, I suggest anyone who doubts this scenario watch stock market reactions every time Trump rises in the polls or Clinton faces renewed scandal.  The narrative is already being prepared — a Trump win equals a market loss.

    For those that think it outlandish that the public could be tricked into blaming Trump and conservatives for an economic crisis, I suggest they consider that possession is nine-tenths of the law in the minds of many.  People can also be irrational when facing financial ruin.  I would remind readers that history is written by the victors.  The globalists plan to be victorious in the dismantling of America and our founding principles.  Whether or not they succeed is really up to average conservatives and liberty proponents, not Trump.

    The FBI’s Move Prepares The Way For Trump

    Clinton and the DNC argue that FBI Director James Comey’s announcement of a re-opened investigation is politically motivated.  And they are right, sort of.  The real motivation, I believe, is that Clinton was never meant to win the election in the first place, and that the elites want Trump placed in power during the final hours of the U.S. economy.  Everything else is just a Kabuki dance.

    The democrats are crying foul and accusing Comey of “working with Putin,” or working with the alt-right.  The nefarious Harry Reid has even accused the FBI of hiding Trump’s supposed ties to the Russian government and violating the Hatch Act.

    I think much of this outrage is real, as I believe much of the mainstream media attacks on Trump are coming from people who really think they are waging a propaganda war to get Hillary Clinton elected.  This, however, does not mean that the elites plan to install Clinton.

    Some might see my position as bizarre.  I understand.  But equally bizarre to me are some of the rationalizations people attempt to argue when dealing with the Comey revelation.

    For example, the argument that the entire re-opening of the investigation is a complex ploy designed by the establishment to distract away from the Wikileaks data dumps.  This makes little sense.  If anything, the re-opening investigation is only bringing MORE attention to the Wikileaks data, not less.  If the elites were hoping to create a distraction, they failed miserably.

    The FBI’s announcement ONLY harms the Clinton campaign.  Period.  Even if it fizzles out, even if they announce that nothing was found, the investigation hitting the news streams so close to election day refocuses all public attention back on Clinton’s corruption and will continue to do so for the next week at least.  The idea that the elites hope to use it to help Clinton is nonsensical.

    I have also seen the argument that Comey is acting to cover his own posterior, perhaps because of a fear that Trump may steal away a victory.  I find this equally absurd. Months back the consensus among alternative analysts was that Comey (placed in the FBI by Obama) was a traitor and the FBI was a puppet agency of the establishment.  Now, suddenly, Comey is worried about a possible Trump win and so takes an action which might self-fulfill the prophecy?

    Comey does what he is told.  The FBI is an owned and operated elitist franchise.  They do not go rogue.  If the rogue FBI narrative were true and Comey actually feels the need to cover his bases with Trump, then it is only because he knows something the rest of us do not.  With Clinton in office, his goose would be cooked after this little incident.  Comey only gains an advantage if Trump is slated to win.

    Trump May Or May Not Be Aware Of The Plan

    The bottom line, according to the evidence I have seen in terms of elitists influence over U.S. elections, is that if Trump wins it will only be because they wanted him to win. The FBI firestorm this past week  appears to support my view and we still have another week left for further Clinton ugliness to be revealed.  I also expect that if Trump wins, the reaction from conservatives and liberty activists will be that the event was a “miracle,” a shocking upset against the establishment.  Much like the reaction to the Brexit referendum.  I continue to hold that conservatives and sovereignty champions in Europe and America are being set up to take the fall for a coming global destabilization.

    I have not taken this position just to be contrary.  If I think about it honestly, my position is truly a losing position.  If I am mistaken and Clinton wins on the 8th then I’ll probably never hear the end of it, but that’s a risk that has to be taken, because what I see here is a move on the chess board that others are not considering.  If I’m wrong, then I’m wrong.

    That said, if I am right, then I still lose, because Trump supporters and half the liberty movement will be so enraptured that they will probably ignore the greater issue — that Trump is the candidate the elites wanted all along.

    If I am right, I cannot say either way if Trump is aware that he will be a potential scapegoat for the elites.  With Trump on the way to the White House I can guarantee a Fed rate hike in December.  Imagine what a staged war between Trump and the Federal Reserve will do to the U.S. dollar? What a way to destroy the currency's world reserve status and make way for the IMF's Special Drawing Rights!  I also suspect that widespread rioting is on the schedule as well from various social justice mobs; a perfect excuse for expansive martial law measures, don’t you think?

    The point is, as horrifying as a Clinton presidency might be to conservatives (or to everyone), don’t get too comfortable under Trump.  The party is just getting started and our vigilance must be even greater with a conservative White House, because, like it or not, everything Trump does is going to reflect on us.  We can no more allow unconstitutional activities under Trump than we could under Clinton.  If you think the election has been chaotic and confusing so far, just wait until after it is over.

  • Wikileaks Exposes Collusion Between Clinton Campaign, State Department, And New York Times

    And the hits just keep on coming.

    At the same time as the latest Wikileaks email dump revealed an email sent from the gmail account of DOJ assistant attorney general, Peter Kadzik, to the gmail account of John Podesta, warning him of a FOIA case that would make it “a while before the State Department posts the [Hillary] emails”, an off-the-record communication which the DOJ apparently had no complaints about, we learned of another coordinated, collusive event, this time involving not the Department of Justice, but the Secretary of State, the New York Times, and the Clinton campaign.

    In an email dated March 1, 2015, just one day before the NYT’s story revealing that Hillary Clinton had a personal email server, a State Department official, Lauren Hickey, coordinated with Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign staffers Heather Samuelson as well as Philippe Reines and Nick Merrill, on a statement given to The New York Times regarding how to frame its landmark story.

    In the email also sent from the gmail account of State Department press aide Lauren Hickey (laurenashleyhickey@gmail.com), the government employee told Clinton aides that then-State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki had “just cleared” a statement to a New York Times reporter. Hickey attached the statement, which appeared to include a change made at the behest of the Clinton aides.

    “Yes on your point re records – done below,” she wrote although it is unclear what change the Clinton campaign had requested.

    Hi guys – Jen just cleared. She made the highlighted change — just rephrased a line about NARA updates state is undertaking. Yes on your point re records – done below. And yes will let you know — should be in the new few minutes.

    The statement describes the State Department’s efforts to respond to document requests from the House Benghazi Committee, which uncovered the existence of Clinton’s server.

     “From the moment that the Select Committee was created, the State Department has been proactively and consistently engaged in responding to the Committee’s many requests in a timely manner, providing more than 40,000 pages of documents, scheduling more than 20 transcribed interviews and participating in several briefings and each of the Committee’s hearings.

    One day after the exchange, the New York Times published its “groundbreaking”, if preapproved report revealing Clinton’s server to the public. A short time later, Hillary Clinton would announce her candidacy for president.

    In a briefing Wednesday afternoon, State Department spokesman John Kirby declined to comment on the alleged leaked documents in a statement, but noted that “[providing] accurate information to the media and the public related to former Secretary Clinton’s emails… at times required communicating with her representatives to ensure accuracy.

    Stated simply, collusion happen: it’s all for the sake of “accuracy.”

    To summarize: on the same day we obtained evidence of collusion between the Clinton campaign’s chairman, John Podesta, and one of the top-ranked staffers at the Justice Department, we also have confirmation of collusion between the State Department, the Clinton campaign and the New York Times.

    Or, as president Obama put it, an honest mistake.”

    * * *

    The email in question showing the coordinated effort between State, the NYT and the Clinton campaign is shown below.


  • What Keeps Elliott's Paul Singer Up At Night: "A Spike In Inflation Could Leat To A Market Crash"

    One month ago, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio warned the New York Fed that even a modest, 1% rise in rates, and thus inflation, would lead to trillions in losses and “trigger the worst price decline in bonds since the 1981 bond market crash.” Now, it is the turn of Elliott Management’s Paul Singer. In a letter to investors seen by CNBC’s Kate Kelly, Elliott Management execs warned of essentially the same thing: that a rapid inflation is the $30 billion hedge fund’s biggest concern in the current environment, and that such a spike would not only collapse bond prices, but potentially lead to a stock market crash.

    “This may seem like a strange thing to worry about under the current circumstances, but the tide toward inflation could turn rather abruptly,” wrote the money managers in their Q3 letter dated Oct. 28. “If inflation starts accelerating to an annual rate of high single digits or greater, it will be quite difficult for the mix of strategies that Elliott favors to ‘keep up.'”

    However, sudden price hikes were only one of the Elliott team’s worries, according to the recent letter. Another is Singer’s biggest recurring fear: that the artificial market created by central bankers over the past 7 years will undergo rapid “renormalization.” Lingering over Elliott’s portfolio management is a persistent fear that central bankers — by collectively cutting interest rates 673 times since the financial crisis — have so upended the natural price levels of stocks, bonds and many other assets, “that the economy and markets are operating in denial of reality.”

    Paraphrasing from the latest Greenlight letter, sent on the same day, in which David Einhorn said that “we have central bankers who are determined to see flashing lights that aren’t there…. we are more than seven years into an economic recovery, yet central bankers behave as if we’re still in crisis”, Elliott writes that “every sniffle is being treated by central banks as acute respiratory distress syndrome worthy of ‘code-blues’ and teams of frantic pumpers and fixers…  what this policy landscape has engendered is a widespread belief, or at least a strong suspicion, that stock and bond prices won’t ever be allowed to go down in any meaningful way.”

    Such a mentality, according to Singer, “has encouraged massively risky behavior.”

    Aside from his traditional pessimistic warning that the central-bank created “market” will implode sooner or later, Elliott predicts that during the coming months or years, oil prices will trend higher than their current $45 level, but not by much. “The oil market has largely achieved balance,” the managers wrote, “albeit with high stock levels, and we expect medium-term price appreciation to be limited by the return of U.S. production growth in the $50-60 range.”

    Singer also touched on one of his long-running favorite investments, gold, and noted that its flat performance during the third quarter, and the move down in response to the increasing belief that the Fed will soon rate interest rates, seemed puzzling: “Given the market gyrations that have accompanied each of the Fed’s previous attempts at hiking policy rates over the last few years, now would seem to be an inopportune time to abandon the only actual safe haven that investors may reach for as an alternative to the really bad deal offered by fixed income instruments given current pricing.

    Translated: Elliott is buying gold here.

    Singer then looked at Europe, and specifically Italy which he said is in a state of “tremendous flux” that will only continue should Prime Minister Matteo Renzi fail to win a Dec. 4 referendum intended to simplify the country’s governance.

    “The resulting unrest may be more impactful than Brexit,” the letter stated. Meanwhile, in Germany, the straits faced by Deutsche Bank, the troubled financial giant now in talks to settle fraud charges with the U.S. Justice Department, may be overplayed in the market, given that the German government, in Elliott’s view, will do whatever is ultimately needed to stabilize the biggest German lender.

    “Regardless of what Chancellor (Angela) Merkel currently says, Germany will stand behind Deutsche Bank in extremis.”

    He is right,

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Today’s News 2nd November 2016

  • "The Clinton Presidency Is Going To Be A Miserable Slog"

    Submitted by Michael Krieger via Liberty Bliztkrieg

    For a long time now, I’ve felt that no matter who wins this election, the U.S. is in for extremely difficult times over at least the next 4 years. The reason is twofold. First, when you combine Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders supporters (the latter didn’t just disappear), a majority of the population is in full on revolt against the status quo. This mood isn’t going anywhere. Combine this backdrop with the very high likelihood of an economic downturn, and you have a recipe for mayhem. This isn’t even taking into account the possible end to a multi-decade secular bull market in sovereign bonds, the ramifications of which represent a financial extinction-level event for much of the Western world.

    When I look at the financial markets and note that they appear totally unwilling to even flirt with the very real possibility of a Trump victory, I conclude that the current status quo assumption is not only that Hillary will win, but that after she wins, the social mood will get better. I, on the other hand, think it will get far, far worse, as disgusted Trump and Sanders supporters push back relentlessly from day one. As I noted earlier today on Twitter:

     

    Of course, I’m not the only one. Michael Brendan Dougherty wrote an excellent piece earlier today published at The Week titled, The Clinton Presidency is Going to be a Miserable Slog, which is my must read of the day.

    Here it is:

    Being on the cusp of electing the first woman president, and defeating a snarling, newly crass, and nationalist Republican Party should feel energizing for the American left. But it’s been tiring. The Democrats aren’t just electing a woman. They’re stuck electing this woman, Hillary Clinton. It’s been a slog.

     

    Clinton could not easily put away her socialist challenger Bernie Sanders. She would not release the transcripts of the paid speeches she gave to Wall Street banks. She could not name her accomplishments as secretary of state. She could not quite escape her own role in managing the political fallout from her husband’s affairs, or the appearance of corruption in the Clinton Foundation’s pioneering work in the field of do-gooder graft.

     

    When FBI Director James Comey gave us a healthy reminder of Clinton’s email scandal last week, liberals must have realized: It’s not just the campaign. The Clinton presidency is going to be a slog, too.

     

    The Clinton standard of political behavior has always had a lawyerly slipperiness to it. When the scandals come, it depends on your definition of “is.” When the headlines erupt, suddenly we discover that all of Clinton’s friends signed an affidavit contradicting the latest accuser or whistleblower. And, really, what difference, at this point, does it make? Partisans will note that Clinton’s ethical lapses and faults are minor compared to Donald Trump’s. Those comparisons are not going to matter in a few days.

     

    Some may object. They’ll reply that the only problem is the aggressive prosecutorial zeal of the Republicans. And it is true that Republicans have an ongoing grudge against Clinton. But let’s posit the existence of a vast right wing conspiracy that hates President Obama just as much as it hates the Clintons. Why is it only able to turn up news-driving scandals on the latter? Could it be that Obama, however detested by conservatives, conducts himself with higher ethical standards than Bill and Hillary?

     

    Clinton’s scandals and misdeeds often have little to do with the Democrats’ battle with Republicans. Clinton played fast and loose even with the Obama administration’s own rules. Obama had forbidden Clinton from giving a government job to the Clinton’s on-demand schemer Sidney Blumenthal — yet Clinton kept him on the payroll of her “charity” and kept up correspondence with him about Libya, even as he had business interests in a post-Gadhafi state. Despite explicit rules set by the Obama administration, the Clinton Foundation continued to operate as a bank in which foreign leaders and governments could deposit their quids, while Clinton was at the head of the State Department, able to distribute pro quos in return.

     

    Beyond the propensity to generate scandal, there is a larger reason that Clinton’s administration will be a slog. The 2016 election has been characterized by a demand for great change. And Hillary Clinton has run as the defender of the way things are, the way they’re going, and who they’re going for.

     

    Hillary Clinton received a vigorous challenge from a left wing that isn’t afraid to label themselves socialists. America’s center-right party ditched its commitments to establishment doctrine on free trade and liberalized immigration, and challenged the wisdom and justice of America’s post-Cold War political order. But Hillary Clinton will enter the White House as the caretaker for the status quo in American political life.

     

    Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders were not the men to carry forward this message of discontent to real political triumph. Both candidates represented their cause poorly. Trump was at once too crude and unethical himself. And Sanders had none of the political instincts and savvy to really go after Clinton in the primaries.

     

    Clinton is the face of a prosperous, grasping establishment that won’t bear challenge from the left or right. Her ability to survive scandal after scandal will not be received as some testament to her political canniness or some deep integrity. It will be received as just the system defending its own from attack. Her survival and her ability to win is a a tribute to the power and self-regard of our political class. And this class has no plausible solution for the nation’s foreign policy, for its immigration system, or for an economic system that abets the elite’s secession from their own nation.

     

    Clinton’s presidency will be a slog because she is exactly like the system she defends. She can point to the great wealth this system produces for its top clients. But neither she nor her cheerleaders can really claim that it looks like wisdom or justice to anyone else.

    Well done, Mr. Dougherty.

    In Liberty,
    Michael Krieger

  • 4 Times As Many Americans Think Biased U.S. Media – Not Foreigners Such As Russian Hackers – Real Threat To Fair Election

    A Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Friday found that 75.9% of Americans believe the mainstream media “would like to see [Hillary Clinton] elected president.”

    The poll also found that only 10% of Americans believe that “foreign interests such as Russian hackers” are “the primary threat that might try to change the election results”. In contrast, 45.53% believe “the news media” is the primary threat to the election:

    media-election

    Indeed, the New York Times, Boston GlobeLos Angeles Times, CNN and other mainstream media admitted to us they were going to try to throw the election for Hillary.  (And leaked emails show widespread collusion between the media and the Clinton campaign.)

    Americans widely distrust the mainstream media. With good reason

  • Can The American People Defeat The Oligarchy That Rules Them?

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Aren’t you surprised that Hillary and the presstitutes haven’t blamed Putin for FBI director Comey’s reopening of the Hillary email case? But the presstitutes have done the next best thing for Hillary. They have made Comey the issue, not Hillary.

    According to US Senator Harry Reid and the presstitutes, we don’t need to worry about Hillary’s crimes. After all, she is only a political woman feathering her nest, just as political men have done for ages. Why all this misogynist talk about Hillary? The presstitutes’ cry is that Comey’s alleged crime is far more important. This woman-hating Republican violated the Hatch Act by telling Congress that the investigation he said was closed is now reopened. A very strange interpretation of the Hatch Act. During an election it is OK to announce that a candidate for president is cleared but it is not OK to say that a candidate is under investigation.

    In July 2016 Comey violated the Hatch Act when he, on orders from the corrupt Obama Attorney General, announced Hillary clean. In so doing, Comey used the prestige of federal clearance of Hillary’s violation of national security protocols to boost her standing in the election polls.

    Actually, Hillary’s standing in the polls is based on the pollsters over-weighting Hillary supporters in the polls. It is easy to produce a favorite if you overweight their supporters in the poll questions. If you look at the crowds attending the two candidate’s public appearances, it is clear that the American people prefer Donald Trump, who is opposed to war with Russia and China. War with nuclear powers is the big issue of the election.

    Hillary’s problem has the ruling American Oligarcy, for which Hillary is the total servant, concerned. What are they going to do about Trump if he wins? Will his fate be the same as John F. Kennedy, Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King, George Wallace? Time will tell. Or will a hotel maid appear at the last minute in the way that the Oligarchy got rid of Dominique Strauss-Kahn?

    All of the American and Western feminists, progressives, and left-wing remnant fell for the obvious frame-up of Strauss-Kahn. After Strauss-Kahn was blocked from the presidency of France and resigned as Director of the IMF, the New York authorities had to drop all charges against Strauss-Kahn. But Washington succeeded in removing Strauss-Kahn as a challenge to its French vassal, Sarkozy.

    This is how the American Oligarchy destroys those it suspects might not serve its interests. The corrupt self-serving Oligarchy makes sure that it owns the government and the media, the think tanks and increasingly all of the major universities, and, of course, through the presstitutes, Americans’ minds.

    The Oligarchs are now hard-pressed to rescue Hillary as US president, so let’s see if the Oligarchs can once again deceive the American people.

    While we wait, let’s concern ourselves with another important issue. The Clinton crime syndicate in the closing years of the 20th century allowed a small handful of mega-corporations to consolidate the US media in a few hands. This vast increase in the power of the Oligarchy was accomplished despite US anti-trust law. The media mergers destroyed the American tradition of a dispersed and independent media.

    But really, what does federal law mean to the One Percent. Nothing whatsoever. The One Percent’s power makes them immune to law. Hillary’s crimes might cost her the election, but she won’t go to jail.

    Not content with 90% control of the US media, the Oligarchy wants more concentration and more control. Looks like they will be getting it, thanks to the corrupt US government. The Federal Trade Commission is supposed to enforce US anti-trust law. Instead, the federal agency routinely violates US anti-trust law by permitting monopoly concentrations of business interests.

    Because of the failure of the federal government to enforce federal law, we now have “banks too big to fail,” unregulated Internet monopoly, and the evisceration of a dispersed and independent media.

    Not so long ago there was a field of economics known as anti-trust. Ph.D. candidates specialized in and wrote dissertations about public control of monopoly power. I assume that this field of economics, like the America of my youth, no longer exists.

    As Rahul Manchanda explains, “yet again another huge media conglomerate is being swallowed and acquired by another huge media conglomerate, to create another gargantuan media outlet, in another consolidation of the enormous power, money, wealth, intimidation, conspiracy and control” that eviscerates the US Constitution and the First Amendment.

  • "The Frightening Thing Is People Don't Know They're Selling Insurance" – An Interview With An Ex-Canyon CDS Trader

    With his valuation expertise rooted in derivatives, Ice Farm’s Michael Green, whose work has frequently graced this website in the past, has always been one step ahead of the market and built his career at Canyon Capital profiting from mispricing and arbitrage in CDS, which he believes are currently underpricing risk in today’s markets.

    Just as the hedge fund community vastly overpaid for its CDS protection following the 2008 downturn, today in an interview with Real Vision TV, Green says it’s the other way around and suggests that the market is selling insurance over and over again without recognizing what they are actually selling, effectively paying more premium for doing the same thing.

     

    Green, who founded ICE Farm Advisors in 2014, has had a unique approach for years. Starting out at Bain Capital, he fine-tuned his approach to modelling and valuation in small cap value stocks at the sharp end of the dot com cycle, initially turning down the opportunity to join Canyon in ’99. Seven years later he opened Canyon’s New York office, which he built from scratch to a $2 billion plus operation, focusing on macro expressed through derivatives.

    Everything Flows Through Derivatives First

    Outlining his perspective, Green said there’s a ton of academic research that’s come out in the past couple of years which validates this, but the one place you’d go to if you have knowledge to express your point of view, is the market that rewarded you for the accuracy and timeliness of your information. “Into the derivatives world you would go,” he said. “You’d buy calls instead of buying stock. And there’s a ton of empirical research that supports this idea, that information flows first into the derivatives market.”  

    Green said his initial approach focused on the idea that, instead of trying to value the derivatives based on an assumption of log normality in terms of the distribution of probabilistic outcomes, he would take the prices as a given and then compare that distribution to the historical empirical in order to try and understand where the market is expressing preferences. This method delivered some fascinating insights.

    The Black Swan was Overcooked

    If you rewind to 2008, Green believes all the signals from the derivatives market suggested that selling insurance was a sensible strategy. Nassim Taleb’s Black Swan is often cited as the catalyst for the shift towards ‘owning the tails’ but Green said in his view, people over-interpreted some of that and paid way too much for that insurance.

    “If you look at 2007 when Taleb published The Black Swan, if you’d gone into the market and you tried to purchase a put option that paid out in the event that the S&P fell by 50% over the next two years, the market would have priced that somewhere around 5%, a 5% probability, which relative to the empirical, the historical distribution of about 4%, it was like 25% markup. And that’s pure profit for an investment bank that is underwriting those puts,” Green said.

    “By the point that that market peaked in June of 2012, the probability that the market was placing on that 50% decline over the next two years had risen to 47%. And this is three years after the market had been rallying, 3 and 1/4 years after the March, 2009 lows that you were seeing this sort of pricing that exists in the market.”

    This was simply a function of there being non-economic buyers of insurance, he said, while the ability to sell those derivatives had collapsed.

    “One of the things I spent a lot of time writing about and communicating with investors, clients, is the idea that the world has now shifted completely in the opposite direction, that people are selling that insurance over and over and over again, not recognizing what they’re actually selling, and not necessarily conducting an evaluation of, are there cheaper ways to sell that– or more expensive ways to sell that same insurance, effectively capturing more premium for doing the same thing.

    “And it’s become a market where in 2012 I would talk to people about the strategies. And I was, again, very fortunate that Canyon would allow me to do, selling this insurance and selling these puts. And we were generating fantastic returns. And probably the biggest benefit I provided to Canyon Partners was saying, don’t overpay for the insurance that everybody wants you to have in your portfolio.”

    Hedge Funds Getting It Wrong

    Back in 2009, Green said, every hedge fund on the planet had to show investors their book of hedges which were designed to prevent a repeat of the impact of the 2008 crash.  “And this was happening in the context of a market that had already fallen by 50%, actually 60%. And they were just fantastically overvalued. People would be buying 9% yielding investment grade paper and think they were getting a fantastic deal, and then buying CDS protection or buying puts on the underlying equity that had an effective yield of, in some cases, as high as 50%,” he said.

    “And it was just, it was an amazing, amazing time. And what I kept articulating was we should be selling the insurance and shorting the underlying securities. And by and large it was a great strategy. Today it’s the opposite. People are selling insurance on both sides. And honestly, the more frightening thing is they don’t know that they’re selling insurance.”

  • Flint Woman Whose Debate Question Donna Brazile Leaked Says Hillary "Should Be Disqualified"

    Submitted by Joseph Jankwoski via PlanetFreeWill.com,

    On Monday, it was revealed by WikiLeaks that the interim chair of the Democratic National Committee Donna Brazile provided a debate question to John Podesta and Jennifer Palmieri of the Clinton campaign ahead of a CNN-hosted debate between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

    This marks the second time that Brazile has been caught tipping off the Clinton campaign to a coming question.

    In a March 5 email with the subject line “One of the questions directed to HRC tomorrow is from a woman with a rash,” Brazile tips the Clinton campaign off to a question that will be asked at the next night’s debate regarding the water crisis in Flint, Michigan.

    “Her family has lead poison and she will ask what, if anything, will Hillary do as president to help the ppl of Flint,” Brazile’s email reads.

    Lee-Anne Walters, the Flint women whose question was mentioned in advance to Hillary Clinton, appeared on Fox News on Tuesday where she said that the democratic nominee should be disqualified from the presidential race.

    “I was disgusted by Hillary’s answer when she first answered it, I’m even more so now,” Walters said. “And I feel she should be disqualified because it gave her an advantage that she shouldn’t have had.”

    During the March 6 debate, Walters asked the democratic candidates if they would promise to make it a requirement for public water systems to remove all lead service lines throughout the United States.

    Hillary responded by promising a commitment to changing the water systems inside the country and remove lead “from everywhere” within five years.

    Lee-Anne Walters’ described Clinton’s response as a “cop out”.

    “The answer she gave is the cop out answer to take it away from water and put funds where there are already funds,” Walters said. “If she is elected she is only going to be in office for four years, not five years, so how does that work?”

    Although she shared the question with mentors, Walters told Fox News that she does not believe that her question was able to get to Donna Brazile beyond CNN.

    CNN took three questions from Walters prior to the debate and it is unclear whose decision it was to ask the specific question the Flint women addressed to the candidates on March 6.

    CNN has since cut ties with Brazile, a veteran political analyst for the network, saying in a statement that it is “completely uncomfortable” with hacked emails showing that Hillary was provided debate questions in advance.

    Brazile’s CNN contract was suspended when she became interim DNC chair over the summer.

    CNN president Jeff Zucker described Brazile’s actions as “unethical” and “disgusting”.

  • No One Will Be Happy

    From the Slope of Hope: Near the end of the book The Big Short, there is a scene in which two of the principal characters are sitting outside in downtown Manhattan during the throes of the financial crisis. The entire financial world is in absolute pandemonium, but as they look around them…………nothing. Birds are singing. Children are playing. People are walking around, getting their errands done. A guy passes by on a bicycle. Nothing is different than it ever was.

    That’s always been one of my favorite parts of the book, because the contrast between what those guys were experiencing (being completely and utterly enveloped in global chaos) and what was going on in the normal world is applicable in so many facets of life.

    I begin this post with that anecdote because, with but a single week left until we have elected a new President, it seems everyone is convinced that Things Will Be So Different once the deed is done.

    To my way of thinking, a single word will capture the state of the nation depending on the outcome. If Clinton is elected (which, in spite of all the problems pressing against her, still seems more likely than not to happen), the word will be ‘anger“. If Trump is elected, the word will be “shock“. Those are very different outcomes.

    Clinton supporters, I’m sure, would counter that the word should instead be “relief’, since they will declare the world has collectively dodged a bullet in the form of Donald Trump, and now we can all get back to the way things should be. Well, yes, I’m sure relief (and to those who think gender is such a BFD when it comes to elected positions, “jubilation”) would be the word expressed by her supporters, but within days, I suspect a portion of them, and the entirety of everyone else, will be angry. And that anger, in the days, weeks, and months that follow, will likely swell. You know how the most virulent anti-smokers are those who quit smoking? It’ll be the same for those who voted for her and then realize how pissed-off they are at her.

    The reason for this, I’d like to suggest, is that people will believe she “got away with it.” The $200 million in speaking “fees.” All the dirty political tricks. Screwing Bernie out of his nomination. All the dirty laundry from her husband’s term, such as pardoning Marc Rich (to say nothing of blue dresses). All the lies about the email server. Hell, all the lies in general. I’m sure we’re all losing track of the lies by this point. So the gestalt will be this woman (yay! A woman president! Clinically speaking, at least) has cheated her way to the top.

    What will the response be to that anger? Oh, lots of things, I imagine. Popularity rankings that range from low to vanishingly low. Impeachment proceedings. Special prosecutors. Stonewalling. Gridlock. All in all, a goddamned miserable time in the oval office. We may well even see her chucked out of the office and have goofy-looking Tim Kaine suddenly be the leader of the free world.

    Then, on the other hand, Trump might win. As of last Thursday, this seemed like a laughable impossibility. Judging from the behavior of the financial markets lately, the likelihood has increased from No F_cking Way to Well Maybe.Since I live in the Bay Area, this entire geographic zone is at risk of seismic activity from all the jaws that would hit the ground if Trump were elected POTUS. Believe me, the bone-deep smug assurance that Clinton will absolutely win, no matter what, exists end to end in the SF Bay Area.

    What would happen following a Trump victory is much harder for me to conjure. If he wins and both houses of Congress are Republican, well, gridlock may well be over. As of this writing, the betting odds seem to give him only a 26% chance of winning, so it would be – – as I said – – a shock if he won (particularly here in the Hillary-worshiping Bay Area).

    As for the markets, even though the pattern is quite complex, the chart below, posted at the SocialTrade web site, may provide some insight. First, here’s the chart (whose pattern was posted a few weeks ago), and the price action has been following it to the letter:

    So let’s assume for a minute that we don’t know the outcome of the election, but we know that the above pattern is how prices are going to play out. One scenario that would fit this neatly would be:

    (1) Increasingly strong odds of a Trump victory, pushing the S&P down to around 2000, near the Brexit low

    (2) Then, on Election Night, a Clinton victory, which would be followed by a relief (there’s that word again) rally as everyone cheers on “normalcy”, pushing the S&P to a recovery of about 2100, similar to where we are right now.

    (3) And then, once the fireworks in NYC (which she’s already arranged) are done being shot off, and the cheers about how great it is to have a Woman President have died down, then all holy hell starts breaking lose, and the “anger” I mentioned begins to express itself in the form of a vengeful Congress (to say nothing of the nearly 50% of the country that had voted for Trump), and the S&P 500 would go into a free-fall, approaching levels similar to what we saw at the start of 2016, with the cash index around 1850 (in other words, a drop of more than 10% in a relatively short amount of time).

    If none of this pans out, you are welcome to have the money back you paid to read this post. With so much uncertainty ahead, however, I thought these possibilities were worth sharing. In the end, though, it’s going to be a lot like that scene from The Big Short. Next Tuesday night is going to seem like such a big, huge, world-changing deal. But when you walk outside on Wednesday morning and look around…………nothing will have changed, with one notable exception: about half the country is going to be really pissed off.

  • BofA Institutional Clients Sell Stocks For A Record 21 Straight Weeks Due To Soaring Redemptions

    Over the weekend, we presented an excerpt from the latest weekly note by One River Management’s Eric Peters, in which he shared an look into hedge fund psychology, explaining why despite the market being at all time highs, nobody has any faith in said “market any more:

    “My company is in structural decline,” he said gazing across Gotham, high in the corner office. “Made it through denial, anger, bargaining, and given that we’re having this conversation, I suppose I’m mostly through depression.” Which leaves the final stage of grief and loss; acceptance.

     

    The transition from active management to passive has been devastating for those who’ve devoted their lives to the former.

     

    “I wonder whether the deep pessimism that we confront every day in our own businesses helps explain why we’re so skeptical of all time S&P highs.”

    Perhaps, but it helps explain why as Bank of America reports in its latest weekly client flow update, the bank’s largest, institutional clients have now sold stocks for a record 21 consecutive weeks. According to BofA, last week, during which the S&P 500 fell 0.7%, BofAML clients were net sellers of US equities for the third consecutive week (-$0.9bn vs. -$0.4bn the prior week). Of these, institutional clients continued to lead the selling; this group has now sold US stocks for the last 21 weeks.

    The reason for the relentless selling? They have no choice, as they continue to be bombarded with redemption requests by clients who can’t wait to shift from active to passive – and much cheaper – funds:

    Record outflows this year from active funds—a large sub-set of the institutional client grouping—have likely been a big contributor here. (Meanwhile, passive funds have seen slowing but continued inflows this year, and we’ve seen a similar trend in BofAML clients’ purchases of ETFs—see Table 1). Hedge funds also sold stocks (for the second consecutive week), while private clients were small net sellers after three weeks of buying. Clients continued to sell both large and small caps but buy mid-caps, which are the most expensive size segment. Buybacks by corporate clients slowed slightly vs. the prior week, and month-to-date are tracking the lowest of any Oct. since 2010.

     

    What were they selling? Pretty much everything, but especially consumer discretionary.

    Clients sold stocks in six of the eleven sectors last week, led by Consumer Discretionary and Industrials—both of which have seen generally weak results and guidance so far this earnings season. ETFs and Financials stocks saw the largest inflows. Sales of Discretionary stocks last week were their largest since last December and the seventh-largest in our data history (since ‘08), led by both institutional and hedge funds clients’ sales. This sector continues to have the longest selling streak at 18 consecutive weeks; but as we noted earlier in Sept, the selling streak could have legs given how crowded the sector is by active funds. Industrials has the next-longest selling streak at nine weeks; meanwhile, Telecom continues to have the longest buying streak (in 15 of the last 16 weeks).

    Finally, putting the “smart money” selling in context, both YTD and since the start of the Second Great Depression, it almost seems like “greater fool” retail investors are still deserpately needed for the final paper-to-cash handoff.

    But aside from the relentless “smart money” selling, remember: There Is No Alternative to stocks…

  • If Hillary Clinton Is Charged With Obstruction Of Justice She Could Go To Prison For 20 Years

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    In the world of politics, the cover-up is often worse than the original crime.  It was his role in the Watergate cover-up that took down Richard Nixon, and now Hillary Clinton’s cover-up of her email scandal could send her to prison for a very, very long time.  When news broke that the FBI has renewed its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails, it sent shockwaves throughout the political world.  But this time around, we aren’t just talking about an investigation into the mishandling of classified documents.  I haven’t heard anyone talking about this, but if the FBI discovers that Hillary Clinton altered, destroyed or concealed any emails that should have been turned over to the FBI during the original investigation, she could be charged with obstruction of justice.  That would immediately end her political career, and if she was found guilty it could send her to prison for the rest of her life.

    I have not seen a single news report mention the phrase “obstruction of justice” yet, but I am convinced that there is a very good chance that this is where this scandal is heading.  The following is the relevant part of the federal statute that deals with obstruction of justice

    Whoever knowingly alters, destroys, mutilates, conceals, covers up, falsified, or makes a false entry in any record, document, or tangible object with the intent to impede, obstruct, or influence the investigation or proper administration of any matter within the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the United States or any case filed under Title 11, or in relation to or contemplation of any such matter or case, shall be fined under this title, imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.

    If Hillary Clinton is sent to prison for 20 years, that would essentially be for the rest of her life.

    I have a feeling that the FBI is going to find a great deal of evidence of obstruction of justice in Huma Abedin’s emails.  But unfortunately there is not likely to be a resolution to this matter before November 8th, because according to the Wall Street Journal there are approximately 650,000 emails to search through…

    As federal agents prepare to scour roughly 650,000 emails to see how many relate to a prior probe of Hillary Clinton’s email use, the surprise disclosure that investigators were pursuing the potential new evidence lays bare building tensions inside the bureau and the Justice Department over how to investigate the Democratic presidential nominee.

     

    Metadata found on the laptop used by former Rep. Anthony Weiner and his estranged wife Huma Abedin, a close Clinton aide, suggests there may be thousands of emails sent to or from the private server that Mrs. Clinton used while she was secretary of state, according to people familiar with the matter. It will take weeks, at a minimum, to determine whether those messages are work-related from the time Ms. Abedin served with Mrs. Clinton at the State Department; how many are duplicates of emails already reviewed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation; and whether they include either classified information or important new evidence in the Clinton email probe.

    Of those 650,000 emails, an inside source told Fox News that “at least 10,000” would be of interest to the investigation.

    At this point, FBI officials have not even begun searching through the emails, because a search warrant has not been secured yet.  The following comes from CNN

    Government lawyers haven’t yet approached Abedin’s lawyers to seek an agreement to conduct the search. Sources earlier told CNN that those discussions had begun, but the law enforcement officials now say they have not.

     

    Either way, government lawyers plan to seek a search warrant from a judge to conduct the search of the computer, the law enforcement officials said.

    But the FBI is reportedly already searching a laptop that was co-owned by Anthony Weiner and Huma Abedin, and no warrant was necessary for that search because Weiner is cooperating with the FBI.

    Many have been wondering why FBI Director James Comey would choose to make such a bold move just over a week until election day.  Surely he had to know that this would have a dramatic impact on the election, and it is unlikely that he would have done so unless someone had already found something really big.  In addition, Comey was reportedly eager to find an opportunity to redeem himself in the eyes of his peers at the FBI.  The following is an excerpt from a Daily Mail article that was written by Ed Klein, the author of a recently released New York Times bestseller about the Clintons entitled “Guilty As Sin“…

    ‘The atmosphere at the FBI has been toxic ever since Jim announced last July that he wouldn’t recommend an indictment against Hillary,’ said the source, a close friend who has known Comey for nearly two decades, shares family outings with him, and accompanies him to Catholic mass every week.

     

    ‘Some people, including department heads, stopped talking to Jim, and even ignored his greetings when they passed him in the hall,’ said the source. ‘They felt that he betrayed them and brought disgrace on the bureau by letting Hillary off with a slap on the wrist.’

     

    According to the source, Comey fretted over the problem for months and discussed it at great length with his wife, Patrice.

     

    He told his wife that he was depressed by the stack of resignation letters piling up on his desk from disaffected agents. The letters reminded him every day that morale in the FBI had hit rock bottom.

    So what happens next?

    In the most likely scenario, the FBI will not have time to complete the investigation and decide whether or not to charge Hillary Clinton before the election.  This means that we would go into November 8th with this scandal hanging over the Clinton campaign, and that would seem to be very good news for Donald Trump.

    However, it is possible that once the FBI starts searching through these emails that they could come to the conclusion very rapidly that charges against Clinton are warranted, and if that happens we could still see some sort of announcement before election day.

    In the unlikely event that does happen, we could actually see Hillary Clinton forced out of the race before November 8th.

    Once again, this appears to be very unlikely at this point, but it is still possible.

    If Clinton was forced to step aside, the Democrats would need to come up with a new nominee, and that process would take time.  In an article later today on The Most Important News I will reveal who I believe that nominee would be.

    In such a scenario, the Democrats would desperately need time to get their act together, and so we could actually see Barack Obama attempt to delay or suspend the election.  The legality of such a move is highly questionable, but Barack Obama has not allowed a little thing like the U.S. Constitution to stop him in the past.

    This week is going to be exceedingly interesting – that is for sure.

    The craziest election in modern American history just keeps getting crazier, and I have a feeling that even more twists and turns are ahead.

    It sure seems ironic that Anthony Weiner is playing such a central role this late in the story, and I can’t wait to see what is in store for the season finale.

  • BleachBit Looks To "Clean Up" By Selling Actual Microfiber "Cloth Or Something" For $3 Each

    Once just an obscure open source piece of software known only by the techies of the world, Hillary’s use of BleachBit to delete her 33,000 emails so that, to quote Trey Gowdy, “even God couldn’t read them” has turned the company into a common household name.  As such, the company has now launched a new product, the “Cloth or Something,” to capitalize on its new found fame.

    As BleachBit points out, the “Cloth or Something” is easy to “stash in burn bags” and is “guaranteed not to prove intent.”

    • After you have smashed your BlackBerry, don’t forget to wipe the fingerprints from your email server with this non-abrasive, soft microfiber Cloth or Something.
    • Thin, foldable size makes it easy to stash the Cloth or Something in burn bags.
    • 6″ x 6″ size quickly wipes even the biggest email servers with thousands of emails.
    • Buy an extra cloth for your VIP (VERY VIP) client.
    • FREE: Optionally autographed by Andrew, creator of BleachBit.
    • Printed in the USA!
    • Guaranteed not to prove intent, or you will get a full refund paid when you are released from prison.
    • First-class shipping and handling is a flat rate of $2 per order.
    • Yes, this cloth is real, and you can really buy it.

    So, “don’t wait for your subpoena,” order one today!

    BleachBit

     

    And, for those of you with handheld devices, BleachBit also offers this handy 20-ounce BlackBerry smashing device…“the grip is specially designed not to retain fingerprints.”

    BleachBit

     

    Finally, just because it feels appropriate…

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