Today’s News 19th May 2016

  • EU-Turkey Migrant Deal Unravels Turning Greece Into Massive Refugee Camp

    Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

    • "It can be expected that, as soon as Turkish citizens will obtain visa-free entry to the EU, foreign nationals will start trying to obtain Turkish passports … or use the identities of Turkish citizens, or to obtain by fraud the Turkish citizenship. This possibility may attract not only irregular migrants, but also criminals or terrorists." — Leaked European Commission report, quoted in the Telegraph, May 17, 2016.

    • According to the Telegraph, the EU report adds that as a result of the deal, the Turkish mafia, which traffics vast volumes of drugs, sex slaves, illegal firearms and refugees into Europe, may undergo "direct territorial expansion towards the EU."

    • "If they make the wrong decision, we will send the refugees." — Burhan Kuzu, senior adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    • Erdogan is now demanding that the EU immediately hand over three billion euros ($3.4 billion) so that Turkish authorities can spend it as they see fit. The EU insists that the funds be transferred through international aid agencies in accordance with strict rules on how the aid can be spent. This prompted Erdogan to accuse the EU of "mocking the dignity" of the Turkish nation.

    The EU-Turkey migrant deal, designed to halt the flow of migrants from Turkey to Greece, is falling apart just two months after it was reached. European officials are now looking for a back-up plan.

    The March 18 deal was negotiated in great haste by European leaders desperate to gain control over a migration crisis in which more than one million migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East poured into Europe in 2015.

    European officials, who appear to have promised Turkey more than they can deliver, are increasingly divided over a crucial part of their end of the bargain: granting visa-free travel to Europe for Turkey's 78 million citizens by the end of June.

    At the same time, Turkey is digging in its heels, refusing to implement a key part of its end of the deal: bringing its anti-terrorism laws into line with EU standards so that they cannot be used to detain journalists and academics critical of the government.

    A central turning point in the EU-Turkey deal was the May 5 resignation of Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who lost a long-running power struggle with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Davutoglu was a key architect of the EU-Turkey deal and was also considered its guarantor.

    On May 6, just one day after Davutoglu's resignation, Erdogan warned European leaders that Turkey would not be narrowing its definition of terrorism: "When Turkey is under attack from terrorist organizations and the powers that support them directly, or indirectly, the EU is telling us to change the law on terrorism," Erdogan said in Istanbul. "They say 'I am going to abolish visas and this is the condition.' I am sorry, we are going our way and you go yours."

    Erdogan insists that Turkey's anti-terrorism laws are needed to fight Kurdish militants at home and Islamic State jihadists in neighboring Syria and Iraq. Human rights groups counter that Erdogan is becoming increasingly authoritarian and is using the legislation indiscriminately to silence dissent of him and his government.

    European officials say that, according to the original deal, visa liberalization for Turkish citizens is conditioned on Turkey amending its anti-terror laws. Erdogan warns that if there is no visa-free travel by the end of June, he will reopen the migration floodgates on July 1. Such a move would allow potentially millions more migrants to pour into Greece.

    European officials are now discussing a Plan B. On May 8, the German newspaper Bild reported on a confidential plan to house all migrants arriving from Turkey on Greek islands in the Aegean Sea. Public transportation to and from those islands to the Greek mainland would be cut off in order to prevent migrants from moving into other parts of the European Union.

    Migrants would remain on the islands permanently while their asylum applications are being processed. Those whose asylum requests are denied would be deported back to their countries of origin or third countries deemed as "safe."

    The plan, which Bild reports is being discussed at the highest echelons of European power, would effectively turn parts of Greece into massive refugee camps for many years to come. It remains unclear whether Greek leaders will have any say in the matter. It is also unclear how Plan B would reduce the number of migrants flowing into Europe.

    Thousands of newly arrived migrants, the vast majority of whom are men, crowd the platforms at Vienna West Railway Station on August 15, 2015 — a common scene in the summer and fall of 2015. (Image source: Bwag/Wikimedia Commons)

    Speaking to the BBC News program, "World on the Move," on May 16, Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of the British intelligence service MI6, warned that the number of migrants coming to Europe during the next five years could run into millions. This, he said, would reshape the continent's geopolitical landscape: "If Europe cannot act together to persuade a significant majority of its citizens that it can gain control of its migratory crisis then the EU will find itself at the mercy of a populist uprising, which is already stirring."

    Dearlove also warned against allowing millions of Turks visa-free access to the EU, describing the EU plan as "perverse, like storing gasoline next to the fire we're trying to extinguish."

    On May 17, the Telegraph published the details of a leaked report from the European Commission, the powerful administrative arm of the European Union. The report warns that opening Europe's borders to 78 million Turks would increase the risk of terrorist attacks in the European Union. The report states:

    "It can be expected that, as soon as Turkish citizens will obtain visa-free entry to the EU, foreign nationals will start trying to obtain Turkish passports in order to pretend to be Turkish citizens and enter the EU visa free, or use the identities of Turkish citizens, or to obtain by fraud the Turkish citizenship. This possibility may attract not only irregular migrants, but also criminals or terrorists."

    According to the Telegraph, the report adds that as a result of the deal, the Turkish mafia, which traffics vast volumes of drugs, sex slaves, illegal firearms and refugees into Europe, may undergo "direct territorial expansion towards the EU." The report warns: "Suspect individuals being allowed to travel to the Schengen territory without the need to go through a visa request procedure would have a greater ability to enter the EU without being noticed."

    While the EU privately admits that the visa waiver would increase the risk to European security, in public the EU has recommended that the deal be approved.

    On May 4, the European Commission announced that Turkey has met most of the 72 "benchmarks of the roadmap" needed to qualify for the visa waiver. The remaining five conditions concern the fight against corruption, judicial cooperation with EU member states, deeper ties with the European law-enforcement agency Europol, data protection and anti-terrorism legislation.

    European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans said:

    "Turkey has made impressive progress, particularly in recent weeks, on meeting the benchmarks of its visa liberalization roadmap…. This is why we are putting a proposal on the table which opens the way for the European Parliament and the Member States to decide to lift visa requirements, once the benchmarks have been met."

    In order for the visa waiver to take effect, it must be approved by the national parliaments of the EU member states, as well as the European Parliament.

    Ahead of a May 18 debate at the European Parliament in Strasbourg over Turkey's progress in fulfilling requirements for visa liberalization, Burhan Kuzu, a senior adviser to Erdogan, warned the European Parliament that it had an "important choice" to make.

    In a Twitter message, Kuzu wrote: "If they make the wrong decision, we will send the refugees." In a subsequent telephone interview with Bloomberg, he added: "If Turkey's doors are opened, Europe would be miserable."

    Meanwhile, Erdogan has placed yet another obstacle in the way of EU-Turkey deal. He is now demanding that the EU immediately hand over three billion euros ($3.4 billion) promised under the deal so that Turkish authorities can spend it as they see fit.

    The EU insists that the funds be transferred through the United Nations and other international aid agencies in accordance with strict rules on how the aid can be spent. That stance has prompted Erdogan to accuse the EU of "mocking the dignity" of the Turkish nation.

    On May 10, Erdogan expressed anger at the glacial pace of the EU bureaucracy:

    "This country [Turkey] is looking after three million refugees. What did they [the EU] say? We'll give you €3 billion. Well, have they given us any of that money until now? No. They're still stroking the ball around midfield. If you're going to give it, just give it.

     

    "These [EU] administrators come here, tour our [refugee] camps, then ask at the same time for more projects. Are you kidding us? What projects? We have 25 camps running. You've seen them. There is no such thing as a project. We've implemented them."

    In an interview with the Financial Times, Fuat Oktay, head of Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), the agency responsible for coordinating the country's refugee response, accused European officials of being fixated on "bureaucracies, rules and procedures" and urged the European Commission to find a way around them.

    The European Commission insists that it was made clear from the outset that most of the money must go to aid organizations: "Funding under the Facility for Refugees in Turkey supports refugees in the country. It is funding for refugees and not funding for Turkey."

    The migration crisis appears to be having political repercussions for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a leading proponent of the EU-Turkey deal. According to a new poll published by the German newsmagazine Cicero on May 10, two-thirds (64%) of Germans oppose a fourth term for Merkel, whose term ends in the fall of 2017.

    In an interview with Welt am Sonntag, Horst Seehofer, the leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister-party to Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), blamed Merkel for enabling Erdogan's blackmail: "I am not against talks with Turkey. But I think it is dangerous to be dependent upon Ankara."

    Sahra Wagenknecht of the Left Party accused Merkel of negotiating the EU-Turkey deal without involving her European partners: "The chancellor is responsible for Europe having become vulnerable to blackmail by the authoritarian Turkish regime."

    Cem Özdemir, leader of the Greens Party and the son of Turkish immigrants said: "The EU-Turkey deal has made Europe subject to Turkish blackmail. The chancellor bears significant responsibility for this state of affairs."

  • Suicide Blonde

    From the Slope of Hope: I was amused this evening to read about the implosion at Theranos, which is located right here in my beloved Palo Alto. Elizabeth Holmes has been the darling of the business press for years, what with her flowing blonde hair, big blue eyes, and slender neck peeking out of the Steve Jobsian black top. Like Holden Caulfield, I have no fondness for “phonies”, and she seemed like one to me.

    The thing is, the phenomenon of attractive women leading high-tech companies is a relatively recent one. On the surface, we as a society will pat each other on the back about how progressive we are, now that we have unvarnished gender equality, even at the highest echelons of corporate power. But let me just spoil your little party and tell you something. The reason men gawk at photos like this……….

    ……..and this……….

    isn’t because they are contemplating the strategic vision, administrative excellence, and vigorous business acumen of these long-legged, slender, blonde women. They’re thinking of other things.

    And I think it stinks of hypocrisy that we as a society applaud ourselves for elevating these women so high, when I can assure you 50% of the society is doing so mostly to look up their skirts.

    The more successful women in business don’t get fawned over to this degree, and in those circumstances, you can probably assume that the woman in question actually knows what the hell she is doing. Take Meg Whitman (please!), who looks like something you might buy in a live bait shop:

    And, as long as we’re being gender-blind, let’s remember that the successful businessmen in our society are likewise not required to be handsome (or even generally resembling the species):

    My point is this – – when you are presented with a woman at the top of the business world, and she just happens to be very attractive, you might want to take a harder look. And by “look”, I’m talking about with your head, not your eyes, because as experience has shown, that can be a fatal misdirection.

    BONUS TIP: Using our same examples above, you can also use the “creepy voice” rule as an important marker. I present to you, once again, Marissa Mayer and Elizabeth Holmes. Enjoy.

  • Shame On The Supreme Court For Making A Mockery Of The First Amendment

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “The vitality of civil and political institutions in our society depends on free discussion… It is only through free debate and free exchange of ideas that government remains responsive to the will of the people and peaceful change is effected. The right to speak freely and to promote diversity of ideas and programs is therefore one of the chief distinctions that sets us apart from totalitarian regimes.”—Justice William O. Douglas, Terminiello v. City of Chicago (1949)

    Shame on the U.S. Supreme Court for making a mockery of the First Amendment.

    All the justices had to do was right a 60-year wrong that made it illegal to exercise one’s First Amendment rights on the Supreme Court plaza.

    It shouldn’t have been a big deal.

    After all, this is the Court that has historically championed a robust First Amendment, no matter how controversial or politically incorrect.

    Over the course of its 227-year history, the Supreme Court has defended the free speech rights of Ku Klux Klan cross-burners, Communist Party organizers, military imposters, Westboro Baptist Church members shouting gay slurs at military funerals, a teenager who burned a cross on the lawn of an African-American family, swastika-wearing Nazis marching through the predominantly Jewish town of Skokie, abortion protesters and sidewalk counselors in front of abortion clinics, flag burners, an anti-war activist arrested for wearing a jacket bearing the words “F#@k the Draft,” high-school students wearing black armbands to school in protest of the Vietnam War, a film producer who created and sold videotapes of dogfights, a movie theater that showed a sexually explicit film, and the Boy Scouts of America to exclude gay members, among others.

    Basically, the Supreme Court has historically had no problem with radical and reactionary speech, false speech, hateful speech, racist speech on front lawns, offensive speech at funerals, anti-Semitic speech in parades, anti-abortion/pro-life speech in front of abortion clinics, inflammatory speech in a Chicago auditorium, political speech in a private California shopping mall, or offensive speech in a state courthouse.

    So when activist Harold Hodge appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court to defend his right to stand on their government plaza and silently protest the treatment of African-Americans and Hispanics by police, it should have been a no-brainer, unanimous ruling in favor of hearing his case.

    Unfortunately, the Supreme Court is not quite as keen on the idea of a robust First Amendment as it used to be, especially when that right is being exercised on the Court’s own front porch.

    Not only did the Court refuse to hear Hodge’s appeal, but in doing so, it also upheld the 60-year-old law banning expressive activity on the Supreme Court plaza. Mind you, this was the same ban that a federal district court judge described as “unreasonable, substantially overbroad…irreconcilable with the First Amendment,” “plainly unconstitutional on its face” and “repugnant” to the Constitution.

    Incredibly, one day after District Court Judge Beryl L. Howell issued her strongly worded opinion striking down the federal statute, the marshal for the Supreme Court—with the approval of Chief Justice John Roberts—issued even more strident regulations outlawing expressive activity on the grounds of the high court, including the plaza.

    Talk about a double standard—a double standard upheld by a federal appeals court.

    And what was the appeals court’s rationale for enforcing this ban on expressive activity on the Supreme Court plaza? “Allowing demonstrations directed at the Court, on the Court’s own front terrace, would tend to yield the…impression…of a Court engaged with — and potentially vulnerable to — outside entreaties by the public.”

    Translation: The appellate court that issued that particular ruling in Hodge v. Talkin actually wants us to believe that the Court is so impressionable that the justices could be swayed by the sight of a single man standing alone and silent in a 20,000 square-foot space wearing a small sign on a day when the court was not in session.

    What a load of tripe.

    Of course the Supreme Court is not going to be swayed by you or me or Harold Hodge.

    This ban on free speech in the Supreme Court plaza, enacted by Congress in 1949, stems from a desire to insulate government officials from those exercising their First Amendment rights, an altogether elitist mindset that views the government “elite” as different, set apart somehow, from the people they have been appointed to serve and represent.

    No wonder interactions with politicians have become increasingly manufactured and distant in recent decades. The powers-that-be want us kept at a distance. Press conferences and televised speeches now largely take the place of face-to-face interaction with constituents. Elected officials keep voters at arms-length through the use of electronic meetings and ticketed events. And there has been an increased use of so-called “free speech zones,” designated areas for expressive activity used to corral and block protestors at political events from interacting with public officials. Both the Democratic and Republican parties have used “free speech zones” at various conventions to mute any and all criticism of their policies and likely will do so again this year.

    We’re nearing the end of the road for free speech and freedom in general, folks.

    With every passing day, we’re being moved further down the road towards a totalitarian society characterized by government censorship, violence, corruption, hypocrisy and intolerance, all packaged for our supposed benefit in the Orwellian doublespeak of national security, tolerance and so-called “government speech.”

    Long gone are the days when advocates of free speech could prevail in a case such as Tinker v. Des Moines. Indeed, it’s been more than 50 years since 13-year-old Mary Beth Tinker was suspended for wearing a black armband to school in protest of the Vietnam War. In taking up her case, the U.S. Supreme Court declared that students do not “shed their constitutional rights to freedom of speech or expression at the schoolhouse gate.”

    Were Tinker to make its way through the courts today, it would have to overcome the many hurdles being placed in the path of those attempting to voice sentiments that may be construed as unpopular, offensive, conspiratorial, violent, threatening or anti-government.

    Indeed, the Supreme Court now has the effrontery to suggest that the government can discriminate freely against First Amendment activity that takes place within a government forum, justifying such censorship as “government speech.”

    If it were just the courts suppressing free speech, that would be one thing to worry about, but First Amendment activities are being pummeled, punched, kicked, choked, chained and generally gagged all across the country. The reasons for such censorship vary widely from political correctness, safety concerns and bullying to national security and hate crimes but the end result remains the same: the complete eradication of what Benjamin Franklin referred to as the “principal pillar of a free government.”

    If Americans are not able to peacefully assemble outside of the halls of government for expressive activity, the First Amendment has lost all meaning.

    If we cannot stand silently outside of the Supreme Court or the Capitol or the White House, our ability to hold the government accountable for its actions is threatened, and so are the rights and liberties which we cherish as Americans.

    Living in a so-called representative republic means that each person has the right to stand outside the halls of government and express his or her opinion on matters of state without fear of arrest.

    That’s what the First Amendment is all about.

    It gives every American the right to “petition the government for a redress of grievances.” It ensures, as Adam Newton and Ronald K.L. Collins report for the Five Freedoms Project, “that our leaders hear, even if they don’t listen to, the electorate. Though public officials may be indifferent, contrary, or silent participants in democratic discourse, at least the First Amendment commands their audience.”

    Unfortunately, through a series of carefully crafted legislative steps, government officials—both elected and appointed—have managed to disembowel this fundamental freedom, rendering it with little more meaning than the right to file a lawsuit against government officials.

    In the process, government officials have succeeded in insulating themselves from their constituents, making it increasingly difficult for average Americans to make themselves seen or heard by those who most need to hear what “we the people” have to say.

    Indeed, while lobbyists mill in and out of the homes and offices of Congressmen, the American people are kept at a distance through free speech zones, electronic town hall meetings, and security barriers. And those who dare to breach the gap—even through silent forms of protest—are arrested for making their voices heard. 

    Clearly, the government has no interest in hearing what “we the people” have to say.

    We are now only as free to speak as a government official may allow.

    Free speech zones, bubble zones, trespass zones, anti-bullying legislation, zero tolerance policies, hate crime laws and a host of other legalistic maladies dreamed up by politicians and prosecutors have conspired to corrode our core freedoms.

    As a result, we are no longer a nation of constitutional purists for whom the Bill of Rights serves as the ultimate authority. As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we have litigated and legislated our way into a new governmental framework where the dictates of petty bureaucrats carry greater weight than the inalienable rights of the citizenry.

    Without the First Amendment, we are utterly helpless.

    It’s not just about the right to speak freely, or pray freely, or assemble freely, or petition the government for a redress of grievances, or have a free press. The unspoken freedom enshrined in the First Amendment is the right to think freely and openly debate issues without being muzzled or treated like a criminal.

    Just as surveillance has been shown to “stifle and smother dissent, keeping a populace cowed by fear,” government censorship gives rise to self-censorship, breeds compliance and makes independent thought all but impossible.

    In the end, censorship and political correctness not only produce people that cannot speak for themselves but also people who cannot think for themselves. And a citizenry that can’t think for itself is a citizenry that will neither rebel against the government’s dictates nor revolt against the government’s tyranny.

    The architects, engineers and lever-pullers who run the American police state want us to remain deaf, dumb and silent. They want our children raised on a vapid diet of utter nonsense, where common sense is in short supply and the only viewpoint that matters is the government’s.

    We are becoming a nation of idiots, encouraged to spout political drivel and little else.

    If George Orwell envisioned the future as a boot stamping on a human face, a fair representation of our present day might well be a muzzle on that same human face.

  • Trump Leads Clinton Nationally For First Time In Latest Poll

    Having recently tied her in a Rasmussen poll, Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton for the first time in a national poll, according to FOX News.

    The FOX News poll shows the trend quite clearly with Hillary'snumbers falling consistently and Trump's rising given him a 3pt lead – his first national lead of the campaign.

     

    The breakdown exposes just how divided America is during this election cycle…

    Clinton is ahead by 14 points among women (50-36 percent).  Yet Trump leads by a larger 22 points among men (55-33 percent).

     

    He also tops Clinton by 37 points (61-24 percent) among whites without a college degree (working-class whites).

     

    Overall, Trump is preferred by 24 points among whites (55-31 percent).  He’s even ahead by nine among white women (47-38 percent).

     

    Clinton has a commanding 83-point lead among blacks (90-7 percent), and is up by 39 among Hispanics (62-23 percent).

    Overall, RealClearPolitics smoothed trend of polls shows Clinton's lead now at its smalled since the beginning of March…

     

    Clinton has a net negative honesty rating of -35 points.  That’s because a new low 31 percent say she’s honest, while a record 66 percent say she isn’t. Trump does better on this measure, although he is still underwater by 17 points:  40 percent think he’s honest and 57 percent say he’s not.

    Ironically, as The Clinton campaign pushes for Bernie to "know when he's beaten," the same FOX News poll finds Sanders polling well above both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

    Which is exactly what  Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger explained previously, following a fantastic article by Nathan J. Robinson in Current Affairs titled: Unless the Democrats Run Sanders, a Trump Nomination Means a Trump Presidency. Several months ago, I would have disagreed with this statement, but today I think it’s entirely accurate.

    One thing Clinton supporters remain in complete denial about (other than the fact most Americans who don’t identify as Democrats find her to be somewhere in between untrustworthy and criminal), is that a significant number of Sanders supporters will never vote for Hillary. Forget the fact that I know a few personally, I’ve noticed several interviews with voters who proclaim Sanders to be their first choice but Trump their second. Are they just saying this or do they mean it? I think a lot them mean it.

    Mr. Robinson’s article is a brilliant deep dive into what a real life Trump vs. Clinton matchup would look like, not what clueless beltway wonks want it to look it. What emerges is a convincing case that the only person who could stand up to Trump and defeat him in November is Bernie Sanders. I agree.

    So without further ado, here are a few excerpts:

    Instinctively, Hillary Clinton has long seemed by far the more electable of the two Democratic candidates. She is, after all, an experienced, pragmatic moderate, whereas Sanders is a raving, arm-flapping elderly Jewish socialist from Vermont. Clinton is simply closer to the American mainstream, thus she is more attractive to a broader swath of voters. Sanders campaigners have grown used to hearing the heavy-hearted lament “I like Bernie, I just don’t think he can win.” And in typical previous American elections, this would be perfectly accurate.

     

    But this is far from a typical previous American election. And recently, everything about the electability calculus has changed, due to one simple fact: Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee for President. Given this reality, every Democratic strategic question must operate not on the basis of abstract electability against a hypothetical candidate, but specific electability against the actual Republican nominee, Donald Trump.

     

    Here, a Clinton match-up is highly likely to be an unmitigated electoral disaster, whereas a Sanders candidacy stands a far better chance. Every one of Clinton’s (considerable) weaknesses plays to every one of Trump’s strengths, whereas every one of Trump’s (few) weaknesses plays to every one of Sanders’s strengths. From a purely pragmatic standpoint, running Clinton against Trump is a disastrous, suicidal proposition.

     

    Her supporters insist that she has already been “tried and tested” against all the attacks that can be thrown at her. But this is not the case; she has never been subjected to the full brunt of attacks that come in a general presidential election. Bernie Sanders has ignored most tabloid dirt, treating it as a sensationalist distraction from real issues (“Enough with the damned emails!”) But for Donald Trump, sensationalist distractions are the whole game. He will attempt to crucify her. And it is very, very likely that he will succeed.

     

    This campaigning style makes Hillary Clinton Donald Trump’s dream opponent. She gives him an endless amount to work with. The emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, Iraq, the Lewinsky scandal, ChinagateTravelgate, the missing law firm recordsJeffrey EpsteinKissingerMarc RichHaitiClinton Foundation tax errorsClinton Foundation conflicts of interest“We were broke when we left the White House,” Goldman Sachs… There is enough material in Hillary Clinton’s background for Donald Trump to run with six times over.

     

    Even a skilled campaigner would have a very difficult time parrying such endless attacks by Trump. Even the best campaigner would find it impossible to draw attention back to actual substantive policy issues, and would spend their every moment on the defensive. But Hillary Clinton is neither the best campaigner nor even a skilled one. In fact, she is a dreadful campaigner. She may be a skilled policymaker, but on the campaign trail she makes constant missteps and never realizes things have gone wrong until it’s too late.

     

    Everyone knows this. Even among Democratic party operatives, she’s acknowledged as “awkward and uninspiring on the stump,” carrying “Bill’s baggage with none of Bill’s warmth.” New York magazine described her “failing to demonstrate the most elementary political skills, much less those learned at Toastmasters or Dale Carnegie.” Last year the White House was panicking at her levels of electoral incompetence, her questionable decisionmaking, and her inclination for taking sleazy shortcuts. More recently, noting Sanders’s catch-up in the polls, The Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin said that she was a “rotten candidate” whose attacks on Sanders made no sense, and that “at some point, you cannot blame the national mood or a poor staff or a brilliant opponent for Hillary Clinton’s campaign woes.” Yet in a race against Trump, Hillary will be handicapped not only by her feeble campaigning skills, but the fact that she will have a sour national mood, a poor staff, and a brilliant opponent.

     

    Every Democrat should take some time to fairly, dispassionately examine Clinton’s track record as a campaigner. Study how the ‘08 campaign was handled, and how this one has gone. Assess her strengths and weaknesses with as little bias or prejudice as possible. Then picture the race against Trump, and think about how it will unfold.

     

    It’s easy to see that Trump has every single advantage. Because the Republican primary will be over, he can come at her from both right and left as he pleases. As the candidate who thundered against the Iraq War at the Republican debate, he can taunt Clinton over her support for it. He will paint her as a member of the corrupt political establishment, and will even offer proof: “Well, I know you can buy politicians, because I bought Senator Clinton. I gave her money, she came to my wedding.” He can make it appear that Hillary Clinton can be bought, that he can’t, and that he is in charge. It’s also hard to defend against, because it appears to be partly true. Any denial looks like a lie, thus making Hillary’s situation look even worse. And then, when she stumbles, he will mock her as incompetent.

     

    Charges of misogyny against Trump won’t work. He is going to fill the press with the rape and harassment allegations against Bill Clinton and Hillary’s role in discrediting the victims (something that made even Lena Dunham deeply queasy.) He can always remind people that Hillary Clinton referred to Monica Lewinsky as a “narcissistic loony toon.” Furthermore, since Trump is not an anti-Planned Parenthood zealot (being the only one willing to stick up for women’s health in a room full of Republicans), it will be hard for Clinton to paint him as the usual anti-feminist right-winger.

     

    Trump will capitalize on his reputation as a truth-teller, and be vicious about both Clinton’s sudden changes of position (e.g. the switch on gay marriage, plus the affected economic populism of her run against Sanders) and her perceived dishonesty. One can already imagine the monologue:

     

    “She lies so much. Everything she says is a lie. I’ve never seen someone who lies so much in my life. Let me tell you three lies she’s told. She made up a story about how she was ducking sniper fire! There was no sniper fire. She made it up! How do you forget a thing like that? She said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the guy who climbed Mount Everest. He hadn’t even climbed it when she was born! Total lie! She lied about the emails, of course, as we all know, and is probably going to be indicted. You know she said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq! It was a lie! Thousands of American soldiers are dead because of her. Not only does she lie, her lies kill people. That’s four lies, I said I’d give you three. You can’t even count them. You want to go on PolitiFact, see how many lies she has? It takes you an hour to read them all! In fact, they ask her, she doesn’t even say she hasn’t lied. They asked her straight up, she says she usually tries to tell the truth! Ooooh, she tries! Come on! This is a person, every single word out of her mouth is a lie. Nobody trusts her. Check the polls, nobody trusts her. Yuge liar.”

     

    Trump will bob, weave, jab, and hook. He won’t let up. And because Clinton actually has lied, and actually did vote for the Iraq War, and actually is hyper-cosy with Wall Street, and actually does change her positions based on expediency, all she can do is issue further implausible denials, which will further embolden Trump. Nor does she have a single offensive weapon at her disposal, since every legitimate criticism of Trump’s background (inconsistent political positions, shady financial dealings, pattern of deception) is equally applicable to Clinton, and he knows how to make such things slide off him, whereas she does not.

    Here’s another example. If Hillary tries to hit Trump on his Mexican/Muslims comments, Trump can accurately point out she called inner city blacks “super predators.”

    Nor are the demographics going to be as favorable to Clinton as she thinks. Trump’s populism will have huge resonance among the white working class in both red and blue states; he might even peel away her black support. And Trump has already proven false the prediction that he would alienate Evangelicals through his vulgarity and his self-deification. Democrats are insistently repeating their belief that a Trump nomination will mobilize liberals to head to the polls like never before, but with nobody particularly enthusiastic for Clinton’s candidacy, it’s not implausible that a large number of people will find both options so unappealing that they stay home.

    Yep, many Sanders supporters will never vote for Hillary. In fact, more than a few will vote for Trump.

    Trump’s various unique methods of attack would instantly be made far less useful in a run against Sanders. All of the most personal charges (untrustworthiness, corruption, rank hypocrisy) are much more difficult to make stick. The rich history of dubious business dealings is nonexistent. None of the sleaze in which Trump traffics can be found clinging to Bernie. Trump’s standup routine just has much less obvious personal material to work with. Sanders is a fairly transparent guy; he likes the social safety net, he doesn’t like oligarchy, he’s a workaholic who sometimes takes a break to play basketball, and that’s pretty much all there is to it. Contrast that with the above-noted list of juicy Clinton tidbits.

     

    Trump can’t clown around nearly as much at a debate with Sanders, for the simple reason that Sanders is dead set on keeping every conversation about the plight of America’s poor under the present economic system. If Trump tells jokes and goofs off here, he looks as if he’s belittling poor people, not a magnificent idea for an Ivy League trust fund billionaire running against a working class public servant and veteran of the Civil Rights movement. Instead, Trump will be forced to do what Hillary Clinton has been forced to do during the primary, namely to make himself sound as much like Bernie Sanders as possible. For Trump, having to get serious and take the Trump Show off the air will be devastating to his unique charismatic appeal.

     

    Trump is an attention-craving parasite, and such creatures are powerful only when indulged and paid attention to. Clinton will be forced to pay attention to Trump because of his constant evocation of her scandals. She will attempt to go after him. She will, in other words, feed the troll. Sanders, by contrast, will almost certainly behave as if Trump isn’t even there. He is unlikely to rise to Trump’s bait, because Sanders doesn’t even care to listen to anything that’s not about saving social security or the disappearing middle class. He will almost certainly seem as if he barely knows who Trump is. Sanders’s commercials will be similar to those he has run in the primary, featuring uplifting images of America, aspirational sentiments about what we can be together, and moving testimonies from ordinary Americans. Putting such genuine dignity and good feeling against Trump’s race-baiting clownishness will be like finally pouring water on the Wicked Witch. Hillary Clinton cannot do this; with her, the campaign will inevitably descend into the gutter, and the unstoppable bloated Trump menace will continue to grow ever larger.

     

    Of course, the American people are still jittery about socialism. But they’re less jittery than they used to be, and Bernie does a good job portraying socialism as being about little more than paid family leave and sick days (a debatable proposition, but one beside the point.) His policies are popular and appeal to the prevailing national sentiment. It’s a risk, certainly. But the Soviet Union bogeyman is long gone, and everyone gets called a socialist these days no matter what their politics. It’s possible that swing voters dislike socialism more than they dislike Hillary Clinton, but in a time of economic discontent one probably shouldn’t bet on it.

     

    But even if it was correct to say that Sanders was “starting to” lose (instead of progressively losing less and less), this should only motivate all Democrats to work harder to make sure he is nominated. One’s support for Sanders should increase in direct proportion to one’s fear of Trump.

     

    And if Trump is the nominee, Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race and throw her every ounce of energy into supporting Sanders. If this does not occur, the resulting consequences for Muslims and Mexican immigrants of a Trump presidency will be fully the responsibility of Clinton and the Democratic Party. To run a candidate who can’t win, or who is a very high-risk proposition, is to recklessly play with the lives of millions of people. So much depends on stopping Trump; a principled defeat will mean nothing to the deported, or to those being roughed up by Trump’s goon squads or executed with pigs’ blood-dipped bullets.

    Trump vs. Clinton will appear to most Americans as a choice between something new and risky, and something old and corrupt. In 2016, who do you think the public will choose?

    If Democrats foolishly nominate Hillary Clinton, they will be the only ones to blame for a Trump Presidency.

  • China Sends Hawkish Fed A Message – Devalues Yuan Near 2016 Lows

    Just as we warned was probable, The PBOC sent a message loud and clear to the newly hawkish Fed following today’s surge in the dollar after the minutes were released. With the 2nd biggest daily devaluation since the August collapse, China pushed the Yuan fix against the USD down to its lowest since early February – barely above the January lows. As we warned earlier, the China-Panic trade looms loud now as turmoil appears all that is left to stop The Fed unleashing another round of liquidity-suckiong rate hikes sooner than the market wants.

    All eyes have been firmly focus on the Yuan’s move against the USD but in fact the Yuan has been falling non-stop against the world’s major currencies…

    The critical issue now is that the U.S. dollar is appreciating again. The
    Bloomberg Dollar index is up 2.8% in the last two weeks and another 2%
    wouldn’t be an unreasonable consolidation in the context of it dropping
    more than 7% in the previous three months.

     

    That previous dollar slide distracted from the fact that yuan depreciation never abated. Against the basket, it’s been weakening at an average rate of almost 1.2% per month for the last five months.


     

     

    The market’s single-minded focus on USD/CNY is crucial and it’s also why disaster can still be averted. It will require the PBOC to temporarily suspend their yuan-weakening policy for as long as the dollar is climbing.

     

    Otherwise, prepare to batten down the hatches for the coming storm.

    It appears that it is the USD’s turn to face The PBOC once again… The 2nd biggest daily devaluation of the Yuan fix against the USD since August’s collapse.

     

    Simply put, China does not want The Fed sucking the liquidity lifeline out of world markets right as it embarks on another round of desperate credit reflation.

    Given The Fed’s comments today, the only excuse left for Yellen and her friends (unless they are willing to lose all credibility due to short-term fluctuations in macro-economic data from now to June meeting – as opposed to their mandated long-term view) is if markets turmoil enough to warrant some level of conservatism. As we have warned before – bullish stock market investors should be careful what they wish for – the higher stocks go, the higher the chances of rate hike, and the more likely China pre-taliates with some turmoil-inducing events to stall the unwind… the last time traders panicced about China, bad things happened to stocks…

  • NATO Announces War Policy Against Russia

    Submitted by Eric Zuesse, investigative historian and author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

    NATO Announces War Policy Against Russia

    On May 18th, Britain’s Guardian headlined “West and Russia on course for war, says ex-Nato deputy commander” and reported that the former deputy commander of NATO, the former British general Sir Alexander Richard Shirreff (who was Supreme Allied Commander in Europe from 2011-2014), expressed outrage that Britain isn’t urgently preparing for war against Russia, and also reported that “He describes Russia as now the west’s most dangerous adversary and says Putin’s course can only be stopped if the west wakes up to the real possibility of war and takes urgent action.” … In a chilling scenario, he predicts that Russia, in order to escape what it believes to be encirclement by Nato, will seize territory in eastern Ukraine.” (That’s the Donbass region, where there has been a civil war.)

    This encirclement by NATO is, apparently, about to be expanded: Shirreff will now be satisfied by NATO, even if not by its member the UK, of which Shirreff happens to be a citizen. New Europe bannered the same day, “NATO lays down the cards on its Russia policy”, and reported that, “In two distinct pre-ministerial press conferences on Wednesday [May 18th], the General Secretary of NATO Jens Stoltenberg and the US Ambassador to NATO, Daglas Lute, introduced the Russia agenda to be covered. Both NATO leaders said that the Accession Protocol Montenegro is signing on Thursday is a strong affirmation of NATO’s open door policy, mentioning explicitly Georgia. ‘We will continue to defend Georgia’s right to make its own decisions,’ Stoltenberg said.” Georgia is on Russia’s southwestern flank; so, it could be yet another a nuclear-missile base right on Russia’s borders, complementing Poland and the Baltics on Russia’s northwestern flank. (The U.S. itself has around 800 military bases in foreign countries, and so even Russia’s less-populous eastern regions would be able to be obliterated virtually in an instant, if the U.S. President so decides. And President Obama is already committed to the view that Russia is by far the world’s most “aggressive” enemy, more so even than international jihadists are.)

    According to the New Europe report, Stoltenberg announced that where the 1997 NATO-Russia Agreement asserts that

    The member States of NATO reiterate that they have no intention, no plan and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members, nor any need to change any aspect of NATO’s nuclear posture or nuclear policy — and do not foresee any future need to do so. This subsumes the fact that NATO has decided that it has no intention, no plan, and no reason to establish nuclear weapon storage sites on the territory of those members, whether through the construction of new nuclear storage facilities or the adaptation of old nuclear storage facilities. Nuclear storage sites are understood to be facilities specifically designed for the stationing of nuclear weapons, and include all types of hardened above or below ground facilities (storage bunkers or vaults) designed for storing nuclear weapons.

    the agreement is effectively terminated, and, “Largely as a result of the Crimean annexation, the repeated violations of the Minsk ceasefire agreement, and the demands of eastern flank member states, boots on the ground will increase considerably in the region, if not ‘substantially’,” along Russia’s northeastern flank, in Poland and the Baltics. Furthermore, “Poland has already said that it regards this agreement ‘obsolete’.” So, General Stoltenberg is taking his lead on that from the Polish government. 

    According to both Russia and the separatist Donbass eastern region of the former Ukraine, the violations of the Minsk II agreement regarding Donbass are attacks by Ukrainian government forces firing into Donbass and destroying buildings and killing residents there, however NATO and other U.S. allies ignore those allegations and just insist that all violations of the Minsk II accords are to be blamed on Russia. That is also the position advanced by Shirreff, who thinks that Russia has no right to be concerned about being surrounded by NATO forces.

    Consequently, regardless of whether or not the Minsk II violations are entirely, or even mainly, or even partially, due to Ukrainian firing into Donbass, NATO appears to be gearing up for its upcoming July ministerial meeting to be an official termination of its vague promises, which NATO had made in the 1997 NATO-Russia agreement (technically called the “Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation signed in Paris, France, 27 May 1997”). That document said “NATO and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries. They share the goal of overcoming the vestiges of earlier confrontation and competition and of strengthening mutual trust and cooperation.” In this regard, it was — though in public and written form, instead of merely private and verbal form — similar to the promises that the West had given to Soviet then Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990, which have already been rampantly violated by the West many times and without apology. The expectation and demand is clearly that Russia must allow itself to be surrounded by NATO, and to do this without complaint, and therefore also without taking military countermeasures, which NATO would call yet more “aggression by Russia.” Any defensive moves by Russia can thus be taken by the West to be unacceptable provocation and justification for a “pre-emptive” attack against Russia by NATO. That would be World War III, and it would be based upon the same accusation against Russia that the Republican candidate for the U.S. Presidency, Mitt Romney, had stated when he was running against Barack Obama: “This is, without question, our number one geopolitical foe.” Perhaps the West here intends the final solution of the Russian problem.

  • Elizabeth Holmes Admits Theranos' "Technology" Is A Fraud: Restates, Voids Years Of Test Results

    The billion dollar baby has now, officially, gone bye bye.

     

    Just when you thought that the biggest ever "multi-billion" private company that also happens to be an utter fraud, would quietly disappear before it risked attracting even more unwarranted attention from regulators, enforcers, and criminal investigators which could potentially lead to prison time for "billionaire" Elizabeth Holmes, here she comes again reminding everyone of her fallen from grace presence, in this case with what should be the terminal news for this company, namely that as the WSJ reports (and as the company confirms) Theranos has told federal health regulators that the company voided and revised two years of results from its Edison blood-testing devices and has issued tens of thousands of corrected reports to doctors and patients.

    As a reminder, the basis for Theranos ludicrous $9 billion valuation which it appears was achieved without anyone doing any actual due diligence, were the "Edison" machines which were touted as revolutionary – not just by Holmes but by the fawning media and even the Clintons. Theranos has now told regulators that it threw out all Edison test results from 2014 and 2015, effectively confirming it has no proprietary technology, and also validating that its valuation should be zero.

    Worse, Theranos has told regulators that it used the Edison for 12 types of tests out of more than 200 offered to consumers and stopped using the devices altogether in late June 2015. In other words, Theranos' insane "valuation" was achieved on the basis of doing only 6% of blood tests in house (all of them erroneously we now learn), and outsourcing 94% to companies whose products actually worked and many of whom likely had a far lower valuation than the one at which a bunch of idiot billionaires "valued" Holmes' worthless company.

    In the process of commiting fraud and building up her valuation, Holmes repeatedly gambled with people's lives, sending them clearly wrong results. As a result some patients have received erroneous results that might have thrown off health decisions made with their doctors, the WSJ reports. All this is needed is one death and there is a criminal case.

    So why come clean now?

    The move is part of Theranos’s attempt to persuade the agency not to impose stiff sanctions it threatened in the aftermath of its inspection of the company’s Newark, Calif., laboratory. The voided and revised test results are one of the most dramatic steps yet taken by Theranos.

     

    Company records reviewed during the inspection showed that the California lab ran about 890,000 tests a year. The inspection found that Edison machines in the lab often failed to meet the company’s own accuracy requirements.

    In other words, Theranos may have put as many as 890,000 lives per year in jeopardy with its fake technology.

    The good news, this is now officially game over for if not Elizabeth Holmes, then certainly her company:

    “There have been massive recalls of single tests in the past, but I’m not aware of one where a company recalled the entirety of the results from its testing platform,” said Geoffrey Baird, associate professor in the department of laboratory medicine at the University of Washington in Seattle. “I believe that’s unprecedented.”

    The company also commented:

    In response to questions from The Wall Street Journal about the blood-test corrections, Theranos spokeswoman Brooke Buchanan said: “Excellence in quality and patient safety is our top priority and we’ve taken comprehensive corrective measures to address the issues CMS raised in their observations. As these matters are currently under review, we have no further comment at this time.”

    That's rich, pardon the pun. Less rich, if only on paper, will be Holmes who will have ample opportunity to make numerous comments during trial.

    * * *

    Finally, the question everyone should be asking is who enabled this fraud for so many years? The simple answer: everyone, and especially those who have an agenda to conduct one endless infomercial for a product that ended up being an epic fraud. Here is a sample (courtesy of Bruce Quinn).

    August 30, 2013
    "Theranos: The Biggest Biotech You've Never Heard of."
    San Francisco Business Times. By Ron Leuty.  Here.

    September 8, 2013
    "Elizabeth Holmes: The Breakthrough of Instant Diagnosis."  

    The pivotal Wall Street Journal article, by Joseph Rago.  Here
    A Stanford dropout is bidding to make tests more accurate, less painful – and at a fraction of the current price.
     
    September 9, 2013
    "Secretive Theranos emerging partly from shadows."
    SF BizJournal, SF/Biotech, by Ron Leuty, subtitled, "The biggest biotech you've never heard of." Here

    October 9, 2013
    "Just a Drop Will Do."
    Pediatric News. By William Wilkoff.  Here.

     
    November 6, 2013
    "What Heath Care Needs is a Real Time Snapshot of You."
    WIRED, By Daniela Hernandez.  Here.

    November 13, 2013.
    "One Small Ow-eee."
    PediaBlog.  By Ned Ketyer MD.  Here.

    November 18, 2013
    "Creative disruption?  She's 29 and Set to Reboot Lab Medicine."

    MedPageToday.  By Eric Topol.  Here.
     
    February 18, 2014
    "This Woman Invented a Way to Run 30 Lab Tests on Only One Drop of Blood."
    WIRED again, by Caitlin Roper.  Here.  WIRED revisits Holmes, with an interview.
     
    February 28, 2014
    "Stanford Dropout Revolutionizes Blood Tests"
    Take Part, by Liana Aghajanian.  Here.  
     
    June, 2014
    Hematology Reports (Open Access Journal).  Full article PDF: Here.
    Chan SM, Chadwick J, Young DL, Holmes E, & Gotlib J (2014).  Intensive serial biomarker profiling for the prediction of neutropenic fever with hematologic malignancies undergoing therapy: a pilot study.  Hematology Reports 6(2).  
    Pubmed Central, here
     
    June 12, 2014
    "This CEO is Out for Blood."
    Fortune, by Roger Parloff.   Here.  Featured as cover story (picture).
     
    June 17, 2014
    "Elizabeth Holmes, Who Wants To Shake Up The Blood Testing Industry, Is A Billionaire At 30."
    Forbes [blog], by – Zina Moukheiber.  Here.
     
    July 2, 2014
    "Bloody Amazing."
    Forbes [blog 7/2, and Issue, 7/21], by Mathew Herper.  Here.
     
    June 3, 2014
    US Patent: "Systems and Methods of Sample Processing and Fluid Control in a Fluidic System."
    PDF, Patent 8,742,230 B2, 80 pp..  Here.
    "This invention is in the field of medical devices…portable medical devices that allow real-tie detection of analytes from a biological fluid…for providing point-of-care testing for a variety of medical applications."
     
    June 20, 2014
    "Theranos: Small Sample, Big Opportunity."
    Decibio [Consultancy blog].  By Eric Lakin.  Here.
     
    July 8, 2014
    "Nanotainer Revolutionizes Blood Testing." VIDEO
    USA TODAY.   Here.
     
    July 15, 2014
    "Meet Elizabeth Holmes, Silicon Valley's Latest Phenomenon"
    San Jose Mercury News, by Michelle Quinn.   Here.
     
    July 15, 2014
    "Theranos bringing 500 new jobs to Scottsdale's SkySong."
    Phoenix Business Journal.  By Angela Gonzales.   Here.  [SkySong is an ASU-affiliated tech park].
     
    July 21, 2014
    "Meet Elizabeth Holmes, the Youngest Female Self-made Billionaire Changing the World with Medical Technology."
    Women's ILAB, by Katherine Melescuic.  Here.
     
    August 11, 2014
    "Ignoring Lab Industry, Theranos Goes Its Way."
    "My Visit to Walgreens for Theranos Lab Tests." DARK REPORT (Paper by subscription only).  Table of contents here.
     
    September 8, 2014
    TechCrunch / Youtube Interview with John Sheiber.  VIDEO.
    Here.,For further details, see here.
     
    September 8, 2014
    "Elizabeth Holmes takes Theranos' blood test to tech movers, shakers."
    Biotech SF / Bizjournals – by Ron Leuty.  Discussion of TechCrunch presentation.  Here.
     
    September 29, 2014
    "This Woman's Revolutionary Idea Made Her A Billionaire — And Could Change Medicine."
    Business Insider.  By Kevin Loria.  Here.  See also June 4, 2015.
     
    September 30, 2014
    "Queen Elizabeth: Mystique of Theranos founder grows with Forbes' richest ranking."
    Biotech SF / Bizjournals – by Ron Leuty.   Here.
    October, 2014
    "Health Plans Deploy New Systems to Control Use of Lab Tests."
    Managed Care.  By Joseph Burns.  Here.
    Does not directly cite Theranos.  Cites contrasting viewpoints on the value of direct easy inexpensive test access:

    October 1, 2014

    "How One Entrepreneur is Transforming Blood Testing."
    Slate – by Kevin Loria.  Here.  [Reprint from Business Insider, 9/29, above.]

    October 16, 2014
    "She's America's Youngest Female Billionaire – And a Dropout."
    by Rachel Crane. CNN/Money.  Here.  [Text & Video.]

    October 27, 2014
    "Theranos Due Diligence: Company Profile, SWOT Analysis, Market Opportunity."
    Decibio.  Consulting group profile of Theranos and its valuation and market position (73 pages; $850).  Here.  Table of Contents, here.  Additional description here

     
    November 7, 2014
    TEDMED – Youtube – Elizabeth Holmes at TEDMED.  VIDEO.
    Here.,For further details, see here.

    November 7, 2014
    "Major Upside for Walgreens Stock"
    InvestorPlace.  By John Divine.  Here.
    "The single biggest catalyst for WAG stock in the future may be the company’s decision to partner with the privately held health-tech firm Theranos."

     
    December 8, 2014
    Fortune/Youtube – Theranos Billionaire Founder Talks Growth. VIDEO.

    Video interview with Pattie Sellers.  Here.
    For further details, see here.

    December 8, 2014
    "Here's How the World's Youngest Self-Made Female Billionaire Shows People She's In Charge."
    Business Insider.  By Richard Feloni.  Here.

    December 8, 2014
    "The New Yorker on the Promise, the Secrecy, and the Challenges of Super-Startup Theranos."
    MedCityNews.  by Meghana Keshavan.  Here.

    December 12, 2014
    "Behind the Curtain at Theranos."
    NBC News. (Video).  Interview with Ken Auletta.  Here.
    For more detail, see here.

    December 14, 2014
    "Blood Test Innovation: Less Cost, No Big Needle"
    Information Week/Healthcare.  By Larry Stofko.  Here.

    January 28, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes, Theranos: Transforming Healthcare by Embracing Failure."
    Youtube.  Stanford Graduate School of Business.  Here.
     
    February, 2015
    "Top 10 Most Innovative Companies in Health Care, 2015: #7, Theranos"
    Fast Company (staff), here.
    February, 2015
    "Vetting Theranos"
    Laboratory Economics [trade journal, subscription].  By JonDavid Kipp.  Here.
    February 2, 2015.
    "CEO Q&A: Craig Hall."
    Real Estate Daily.  By Christina Perez.  Hall was early investor in Theranos.  Here.
     
    February 3, 2015
    "Breakthrough Branding: Theranos, with Walgreens, Revolutionizes Healthcare."
    Brand Channel.  By Sheila Shayon.  Here.
     
    February 3, 2015
    "Will Theranos Turn the Lab Industry Upside Down?"
    Market Financial Analysis.  Here and here.  Order here ($99).
     
    February 6, 2015
    "Ten Things to Know about America's Youngest Female Billionaire."
    Business Insider.  By Koa Beck.  Here.
     
    February 5, 2015
    "Disruptive Technology Main Focus at Clinton Health Conference."
    California Healthline.  By Lauren McSherry. Here.
    President Clinton, Fourth Annual Health Matters Activation Summit.  "Access to health information is a basic human right," said Elizabeth Holmes, a young Silicon Valley entrepreneur who founded Theranos, a blood analytics and diagnostics company. [President] Clinton, who applauded her work to provide low-cost testing to the general public, said the company is valued at $9 billion.  See also at Clinton Foundation.org, here.
     
    February 10, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes – Theranos"
    Upstart.  By Teresa Novellino.  Here.
     
    February 10, 2015
    "Theranos CEO: Avoid Backup Plans."
    INC (from Stanford Business School.)  By Deborah Peterson.  Here.
    "I think that the minute that you have a backup plan, you've admitted that you're not going to succeed."
     
    February 17, 2015
    "Stealth Research: Is Biomedical Innovation Happening Outside the Peer-reviewed Literature?"
    JAMA.  By John P.A. Ionnanidis.  Here.
    "Theranos is just one example among many for which major efforts and major claims about biomedical progress seem to be happening outside the peer-reviewed scientific literature…stealth research creates total ambiguity about what evidence can be trusted in a mix of possibly brilliant ideas, aggressive corporate announcements, and mass media hype."   See comment at Healthnewsreview.org here (February 23, 2015).
    February 27, 2015
    "Tech company Theranos pushes consumer lab-testing bill."
    Arizona Republic.  By Ken Tucker.  Here.
    For legislative text, here.  For a blog on the topic, here.  For cloud version of the legislative text, here.  Article in March 2015 Laboratory Economics [subscription, here.]
     
    February, 2015
    "Theranos: Blood Tests that Need Just a Tiny Sample."
    Walgreens website, "At the Corner of Happy and Healthy," accessed 2/17/2015.  Here.
     
    March, 2015
    "Secret Shoppers Disappointed by Theranos."
    Laboratory Economics.   By Jondavid Klipp.  Here (subscription).
    Summarizes experiences of "secret shoppers" from Piper Jaffray, an Arizona lab, The Dark Report, and a California lab.  Most reported 3-day results and many reported standard venipuncture.
     
    March 2, 2015
    "Meet the Most Impressive Woman on Forbes' Female Billionaire List."
    Identities.Mic.  March 2, 2015.  By Julie Zeilinger.    Here.
    March 5, 2015
    "Millennials and Money: New Kids in the Forbes Billionaires Club."
    National Center for Business Journalism.  By Rian Bosse.  Elizabeth Holmes noted.  Here.
     
    March 6, 2015
    "Theranos Files Comment In Support Of Food and Drug Administration Oversight Of Laboratory-Developed Tests."
    Theranos Press Release.  Here.
    The comment letter, dated 3/1/2015, 4 pages, here.
     
    March 7, 2015.  
    "Health care in America: Shock treatment. A wasteful and inefficient industry is in the throes of great disruption."
    The Economist.  Theranos mentioned.  Here.  Also here.
    March 9, 2015
    "Theranos and Cleveland Clinic Announce Strategic Alliance to Improve Patient Care through Innovation in Testing."
    Press release.  Here.
     
    March 9, 2015
    "Cleveland Clinic Taps Theranos, Bets on Cheaper Diagnostics."
    Healthcare Finance News.  Anthony Brio.  Here.
     
    March 9, 2015.
    Fox News Cleveland Clinic/Theranos Interview.  VIDEO.
    Fox News Online.  Here.  Additional notes, here.
     
    March 9, 2015
    "Cleveland Clinic Enters 'Long-Term Strategic Alliance' with Theranos, Inc."
    Crain's Cleveland Business.  By Timothy Magaw.  Here.
     
    March 9, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes:  2015 Horatio Alger Award Winner."
    Horatio Alger Association.  Webpage,  here.  Press release, here.
     
    March 13, 2015
    "Theranos Seeks FDA Approval for Early-detection Ebola Test: George Schultz."
    Silicon Valley Business Journal.  By Ben Soriano.  Here.
     
    March 17, 2015
    "Mark Cuban Talks Healthcare Investing: Soon Our Bodies Will Be Big Math Equations."
    MedCity News.  By Stephanie Baum.  Here.
    “Sensors are the next opportunity,” Cuban said. He also voiced his enthusiasm for companies like 23andMe and Theranos.
     
    March 23, 2015
    "Boies Schiller Set to Open Palo Alto Outpost."
    The Recorder.  By Patience Haggin.  Here.
    April 7, 2015
    "Patients Can Soon Get Lab Tests Without Doctors' Orders."
    Arizona Republic.  By Yvonne Wingett Sanchez & Ken Alltucker.  Here.
     
    April 8, 2015
    "Theranos One Step Closer to Consumerizing Health."
    Decibio [Blog].  By Eric Lakin.  Here.  [Arizona consumer test law.]
     
    April 9, 2015
    "Arizona Health Law Could Boost Theranos' Biotech Prospects."
    USA Today [America's Markets].  By Marco Della Cava.  Here.
     
    April 16, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes."
    TIME [100 Most Influential People.]  By Henry Kissinger.  Here.
     
    April 17, 2015.
    "How Elizabeth Holmes became inspired to transform blood testing." VIDEO
    CBS News This Morning.   Here.  Also here,  here.  More here.
     
    April 20, 2015
    "The Doctor is Out: LabCorp to Let Consumers Order Own Tests."
    Bloomberg.  By Cynthia Koons.  Here., Also: In slightly different version, same author, Bloomberg Business Week, 4/27/15.
    April 20, 2015
    "What News at Theranos?  Lab Firm Expands in AZ."
    "In Arizona, New Consumer Direct Access Law is a First Win for California-Based Theranos."
    "Theranos: Many Questions, but Very Few Answers."
    Dark Report (subscription).  Here.
     
    April 27, 2015

    "World's Youngest Billionaire – Another Steve Jobs?"
    CNBC.  By Abigail Stevenson.  Here.
     
    April 27, 2015
    "Occam's Razor and the Secrecy of Theranos.  A Bunch of Crock?  No."
    Medcitynews.   By Meghana Keshavan.  Here.
     
    April 28, 2015
    "Guest List, State Dinner, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan."
    Washington Post.  Here.  (Including Ms. Holmes.)
    May 5, 2015
    "Theranos Sticks It to Critics, Plans Expansion of Lab Services."
    San Francisco Business Times.  By Ron Leuty.  Here.

    "Can Theranos Disrupt the Clinical Lab Testing Market?  An Objective Look at Advantages, Liabilities, and Challenges That Must Be Addressed."
    [Pathology] Executive War College.  By Dr. Robert Boorstein. [Deck]  Here.

     
    May 7, 2015
    "Theranos Jump Starts Consumer Lab Testing."
    Fortune.  By Ron Parloff.  Here.
    "My last routine blood tests, drawn at my physician’s office…cost me $433 out of pocket, even after application of my “gold”-level insurance….Had I not been insured, the lab’s price for those tests would have been $2,411, according to the explanation of benefits sent me. The same tests, according to Theranos’s price menu, would have cost me $75."
     
    May 7, 2015
    "New Laboratory Testing Firm Seeks to Shatter Old Diagnostic Testing Model."
    Genomeweb.  Here.
     
    May 7, 2015
    "Silicon Valley Lab Testing Startup Hires Clinton Advisor."
    Bloomberg.  By Caroline Chen.  Here.  (Similarly: Here.)
     
    May 11, 2015
    "Our Editor Describes Visit to Theranos Test Center."
    Dark Report.  (Subscription).  Here.
    Sidebar: "Comparing Patient Visit with Advertised Benefits."
     
    May 11, 2015
    "Airbnb Chesky, Theranos Holmes among presidential entrepreneurs."
    USAToday.  By Marco della Cava.  Here.
    Winners met with Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and President Obama.
     
    May 11, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes on Joining the Presidential Ambassadors for Global Entrepreneurship Initiative."
    Theranos/news/posts.  By Elizabeth Holmes.  Here.
    June 2, 2015.
    Elizabeth Holmes: Charlie Rose.  VIDEO.
    Here.  Comment, Kevin Loria, June 4, 2015.
     
    June, 2015
    "Collecting More Dollars From Patients: Why It’s Time For Clinical Labs and Pathology Groups to Move To The Retail Model."
    Dark Report [Trade journal, white paper].  Here.
    This white paper does not mention "Theranos" but covers the topic of retail access to laboratory tests.
     
    June 19, 2015
    "Personalized Technology Will Upend the Doctor-Patient Relationship."
    Harvard Business Review.  By Sundar Subramanian et al.  Here.
     
    June 21, 2015
    "The Benefits to Your Brain of a Work Uniform."
    Providence Journal [Chicago Tribune].  By Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz.  Here.
     
    June 22, 2015.
    "With Carlos Slim, Billionaire Elizabeth Holmes Brings Innovative Blood Testing Method To Mexico."
    Forbes.  By Dolia Estevez.  Here.
     
    June 23, 2015
    "Theranos' New Deal with Billionair Carlos Slim May Take It to Another Level." 
    Biz Journal SF.  By Ron Leuty.  Here.
     
    July 2, 2015
    "Controversial Multibillion-Dollar Health Startup Theranos Just Got a Huge Seal of Approval from the US Government."
    Business Insider.  By Laren F Friedman.  Here.
    July 2, 2015
    "Disruptive Diagnostics Firm Theranos Gets Boost from FDA."
    Fortune.  By Roger Parloff.  Here.
     
    July 3, 2015
    "Theranos Blood Test: The Insanely Influential Stanford Professor Who Called the Comapny Out for its 'Stealth Research.' "
    Washington Post.  By Ariana Eunjung Cha.  Here.
     
    July 24, 2015
    "Biden Visits Theranos Lab as Part of Healthcare Innovation Summit"
    USAToday. By Marco della Cava.  Here.
    Theranos Press Release, here.   The Suffield Times, here.
     
    July 24, 2015
    "Theranos Pushing Direct to Consumer Blood Testing."
    Health IT Outcomes.  By Christine Kern.  Here.
     
    July 30, 2015
    "Theranos’ Holmes Marks 50th Anniversary of Medicare and Medicaid with Vision for Next 50 Years."
    Business Wire [press release].  Here.
     
    August 11, 2015
    "Nickles Takes On Theranos."
    O'Dwyer PR Inside News, here.  (Nickles is a Washington policy group).
     
    August 17, 2015
    "A Good Month for Blood."
    Laboratory Equipment.  By Michelle Taylor.  Here.
     
    August 19-20, 2015
    "Leveraging Pharmacies for Rapid Diagnostics."
    7th Annual Next Generation Diagnostics Summit (Two-Day Track on Pharmacies).
    While not specific to Theranos, a two-day meeting on lab tests in the pharmacy space.
    Here or here.
    August 24, 2015
    "Labcorp is Reaching Past Doctor's Office to the Patient."
    Investors Business Daily.  By Gillian Rich.  Here.
     
    October 5, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes on Using Business to Change the World."
    Forbes.  By Sarah Hedgecock.  Here.
     
    October 6, 2015
    "Self Made Billionaire on Re-inventing Blood Tests: It's Like Cocaine."
    Vanity Fair.  By Emily Jane Fox.  Here.
     
    October 6, 2015
    "How Theranos is Disrupting the Health Care Industry."
    Bloomberg. [VIDEO 6:38 min.]  Here.
    "A cholesterol test is $2.99, whereas it could cost hundreds in other locations…The response from the lab industry, they have so aggressively seeded false information about us into the press, into journalists, into physicians in the market we are in."
     
    October 7, 2015
    "Theranos Founder Elizabeth Holmes to Deliver Keynote Address at 2015 Medical Innovation Summit."
    Craigs Cleveland Business.  Here.
     
    October 12, 2015
    "Theranos' Elizabeth Holmes Call on Women to Help Each Other."
    Fortune.  By Michael Lev-Ram.  Here.
     
    October 12, 2015
    "CME Group Announces Elizabeth Holmes as the 2015 Melamed-Arditti Innovation Award Receipient."
    MarketWatch.  Here.
     

    * * *

    Finally here is Draper ssociates' Tim Draper – board member and first investor in Theranos – explaining why "the company is fantastic…I believe 100 % in Elizxabeth Holmes and her company," blaming the recent turmoil on media backlash and the status quo pushing back against someone who is 'disrupting' – which we now know is entirely 100% false as Holmes' just admitted her company's 'product' is a fraud…

     

    And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you get to be worth $9 billion on a "technology" that was nothing but fraud.

  • The Best US Cities For Jobs… For Now

    The top cities are dominated by the tech community, with San Jose, CA and San Francisco, CA taking the top two spots in the overall ranking.

    Here is the list of top 25 cities based on their overall ranking – Bloomberg points out that San Jose has risen from No. 7 to No. 1

    As Bloomberg reports, Glassdoor Inc., a career website, published its list of the top 25 cities for jobs based on factors such as salary, job satisfaction, and cost of living.

    Breaking down the details, here is the list for the median salary component – again led by tech heavy cities such as San Jose and San Francisco.

     

    Job satisfaction…

     

    And cost of living… note how incredible the cost of living is in San Jose and San Francisco, surely indicative of the run up in tech companies over the past few years in Silicon Valley, as those high wages and overzealous cash infusions by venture capitalists led to higher cost of living.

    We assume this excludes living in a box in someone's front room.

    Established tech communities such as San Jose, San Francisco, as well as up and coming tech cities such as Seattle, Boston, and Austin dominate the lists. "This demonstrates why so many people are looking to move to the San Francisco Bay area: Job satisfaction, work-life balance, and hiring opportunities are unparalleled compared to anywhere else in the country. It's not a surprise to see cities like Seattle and Austin at the top since they all have rising technology communities, great institutions for higher education and research, as well as affordable neighborhoods." said Dr. Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor.

    While we're happy for all of these tech heavy cities making this list, we would caution those reading not to pack up and head to the West Coast just yet. While Silicon Valley has undoubtedly had a good run, the reality is that the second great tech bubble has popped, and impacts are only just beginning to be felt.

    * * *

    As a refresher for those who are curious, here is a quick timeline chronicling the bursting of the second tech bubble. We first pointed out back in January of 2014 when venture capitalists first started to grow overly speculative and began to pour large sums of money into tech start-ups that the second tech bubble had arrived – at that time there were more than 30 companies in the US, Europe, and China that were valued at $1 billion or more by the private markets.

    Our analysis was confirmed a year later when investment bankers had to deliver the news to Dropbox that there was no way it could IPO at its $10 billion private valuation, let alone provide any upside to recent investors.

    Then in January of this year we pointed out that as markets were crashing, more and more "unicorns" (companies with a private valuation in excess of $1 billion) were going to be forced to raise capital at lower valuations, and these down rounds would eventually lead to firms having to admit that they'd have to go to market at a much more humble valuation than once thought.

    Only one month later, we showed that the bursting of the bubble had made its way to the real economy by way of mass layoffs at all of these once up and coming technology companies. One executive recruiter said at the time "I think what we're seeing is bigger than a small correction. Everyone thinks it will be different this time, but it never is."

    And finally, just today we reported that the aggregate of all of the aforementioned events has now made its way into Silicon Valley's real estate market. Luxury homes are now staying on the market longer, and the reality is finally starting to hit home: "The peak is behind us, and that's becoming clearer and clearer to builders and buyers" said an agent of real estate consultancy John Burns.

  • Are Globalists Evil Or Just Misunderstood?

    Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com,

    I recently received requests from two different readers, one asking for articles covering the “mindset” of globalists (why they do what they do), and another request for articles covering globalist “occultism.” I find that these two topics are very difficult to pursue with a large number of people for a few reasons:

    1) Many people do not accept the reality that a group of financial elitists colluding (conspiring) to obtain total global power even exists. Therefore, in order to delve into the topic of the globalist mindset with these “skeptics,” I would first have to re-cover page after page of evidence showing that they not only exist and collude, but that they openly boast about their plans on a regular basis. This is time consuming, to say the least.

     

    2) For some of the people that do eventually accept the reality of a globalist cabal, the argument eventually arises that “yes, there is collusion, but it is merely driven by greed and profit motive,” and not as nefarious as we conspiracy tin-foil mad-hatters imagine.

     

    3) For others, there is a full acceptance of the reality of an organized globalist cult, but they argue that these people are simply a product of a corrupt and ill-structured socio-political system. That is to say, they think that the globalists are a symptom of the troubles that plague humanity, rather than a cause.

     

    This argument is often made by people promoting their own collectivist agenda in one form or another (socialists, communists, scientific dictatorships controlled by people supposedly much smarter than the rest of us, one world-one mind spiritually unhinged theosophic weirdos, etc.). They claim a new system, their system, is the solution rather than getting rid of the globalists, which they say would only leave a “power vacuum” for more tyrants to take their place.

     

    4) Finally, there are the evangelical revelations seekers obsessed with Armageddon. They fully accept that the globalists exist, that they conspire internationally to gain power and influence towards the goal of a “new world order” and that they are essentially evil minded in their intentions. However, they argue that it is either futile to fight against such people because they are supported by power from somewhere beyond, or they even argue that to fight against the globalists is wrong because it is in defiance of the plan put forward in the Bible.

    So, as you can see, it is a veritable circus of horrors whenever I write on the subject of who the globalists really are and what they really want. Beyond that, it is very difficult to examine this subject matter, even with ample evidence, without coming off like a wackaloon.

    It is hard enough convincing people of the obvious economic crisis facing America and the rest of the world and convincing them to put in minimal effort to prepare, let alone convincing them of the psychopathic and cult-like nature of the elite behind that crisis. In other words, if you approach someone new to this information cold and hit them right away with tales of luciferians, Washington D.C. child pedo-rings and gay romp power-club parties in the California Redwoods with a giant stone owl called “Molech,” you probably aren’t going to get your foot in the door.

    That said, I’ll address the inevitable arguments above very quickly before I begin my analysis of the Globalist mind.

    1) Psychopaths tend to naturally gravitate towards positions of power, and despite some foolish assumptions out there that these people are too volatile to play nice with others, they do in fact work together as long as there is a guarantee of mutual benefit.

     

    Elites have conspired throughout history, this is well documented fact. I find it amazing that some folks cannot grasp the idea that they might also be conspiring today. If you need evidence of such collusion, you are welcome to read my articles The Fall Of America Signals The Rise Of The New World Order and Order Out Of Chaos: The Doctrine That Runs The World.  If you want to know where to find these people simply look at the memberships of institutions designed specifically to promote globalism – Bilderberg, the Council on Foreign Relations, Tavistock, the Trilateral Commission, The Club Of Rome, Rand Corporation, the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements, ect.  Though they often obscure their more malicious intentions, globalists are relatively easy to find.

     

    One might argue that the problem of organized psychopathy cannot be dealt with unless one confronts individual psychopathy. I’m sorry to say that at least 10% of the population (according to psychologist Carl Gustav Jung) at any given time has elements of inborn latent psychopathy and at least 1% is actively psychopathic. You will NEVER remove psychopathy from humanity. It is an inborn quality. What you can do, though, is disrupt or destroy organizations of people that foster and elevate psychopaths. Organized psychopathy is the real and pressing problem.

     

    2) If you need convincing that the globalists are not just “greedy capitalists” out to make a buck at the expense of the world, check out my article Global Eitism: The Character Traits Of Truly Evil People and read some of the quotes directly attributed to them. Their goal is to gain as much power over the masses as possible. They see themselves as modern Pharaohs, not as businessmen. Wealth is a side-note.

     

    3) There have been only fleeting instances of societies without the all-pervasive influence of organized elitism in history. From these minor instances, though, we can see bursts of human potential, productivity and invention, as well as greater respect for inherent conscience and justice.  Sadly, no one in the past has ever taken the action of removing elitist groups entirely as a factor of influence.

     

    Anyone who claims that the globalists are nothing more than a “symptom” is probably trying to sell you on an ideology rather than a real solution. The fact of the matter is, we have never lived in a world without the influence of globalist conspiracy. They are like a cancer that has turned psychopathy into a religion. Removing the globalists should be a top priority. NO system is going to succeed, regardless of how brilliantly conceived, unless the elitists are out of the picture.

     

    I would even venture to say that the people who argue that the globalists are nothing more than a symptom are in fact HELPING the globalists by distracting activists away from the real task at hand. Playing at philosophy and theoretical society building will not change the existing power structure in any way, nor will it remove the muzzle of a rifle from the back of your head as you stare down at the ditch that is to become your final resting place.

     

    4) The majority of the Bible is composed of stories of good standing against evil, and I simply cannot take anyone seriously who argues that the Bible demands we sit idle in the face of despotism. I don’t believe in the modernized “Left Behind” interpretations of “apocalypse” and even if I did, different groups have been saying that the end times are right around the corner for ages. Frankly, no one knows or will know if such an event of metaphysical proportions is taking place anyway.

    Now, I do believe in full-spectrum crisis and societal collapse, because these events have happened over and over again and can even be reasonably predicted according to past indicators. I also believe that current events are rife with such indicators and that a collapse is taking place in stages today. I also know that there are groups of elites engineering this collapse and I know exactly why because they have openly admitted their goals (read my article The Economic End Game Explained). Apocalypse is not my concern. Right and wrong, justice and tyranny are my concerns. I’ll leave the rest to more omniscient and omnipresent beings.

    The Problem We Face Is Organized Evil

    Now that the above questions are out of the way we can jump into the core of the problem. And no, the core of the problem is not the “system” we live in per say, or our methodology of living and progressing as a species. Again, there are too many eggheads in the liberty movement that like to pretend they have grand and ingenious new ways of looking at the world, and if only we would just “listen to their brilliant vision” everything would change for the better. When you boil down their philosophies you often find they have no new ideas whatsoever, or that their ideas cannot be implemented because they have not dealt with the elephant in the room — the globalists.

    Philosophy without tangible action and verifiable results is ultimately useless in the face of true evil. Intellectual warriors rarely win wars, but they do often die horribly as a result of their naivety and defenselessness.

    To answer the question in the title of this article, yes, the globalists are in fact evil and the only misunderstandings are on the part of wide-eyed skeptics that have bought into the idea that “evil” is a moral conception created by religion rather than an inherent quality of human beings.

    As Carl Jung discovered in his studies on the collective unconscious, people are born with inherent and conflicting conceptions and traits, or “dualities.” Good vs. Evil is an important duality we all come in to the world dealing with, it is not a mere product of environment or religious influence. That which is “good” is often dictated by what we call “conscience,” which again is an inherent idea or “voice,” and is only partly influenced by environment. The fact of inherent character traits and universal moral codes is present in anthropological studies as well as psychological studies beyond Jung’s very extensive work.

    To define evil, we would have to look at those ideas and actions that are opposite inherent conscience. The globalists have basically constructed a festering belief system around everything that is contrary to our moral compass. I will attempt to dissect some elements of that belief system from a secular point of view. Wish me luck…

    Occultism

    Occultism in itself is not necessarily “evil,” it only means “secret knowledge.” But the history of occultism is plagued by rather evil deeds and attitudes. John F. Kennedy once warned of secret societies and secret proceedings, and with good reason. For thousands of years, occult groups often withheld valuable knowledge from the masses as a means to influence behavior and control the direction of society. This did not have to be “magical” knowledge, whatever that means. Usually, it was scientific or psychological knowledge.

    Say for example that a group of elitists withheld detailed knowledge of an impending economic collapse because this knowledge gave them a feeling of superiority and an advantage that they could exploit to gain power over others. Often, occult knowledge, secret knowledge, is driven by the selfish desire of one group to maintain a sense of dominance over another. Is it evil to withhold knowledge that could save lives for the sake of self-elevation? I would say absolutely.

    Occultism can also lead to temptations of ever increasing criminality.  If groups of people in positions of power maintain a well-oiled machine of secrecy that draws a dark curtain on their behavior, a machine that allows them to cover for each others actions to ensure no repercussions from outsiders, it is only a matter of time before the lack of transparency opens a door to greater evil.  One act of evil left unpunished tends to breed many future acts of evil practiced with impunity.

    Luciferianism

    So yeah, it’s almost impossible to broach this subject without sounding crazy to people who aren’t already familiar with it. But as requested, I’ll take a stab at it.

    Do globalists really believe in a devil with a pitchfork and hooves and horns? I really don’t know. What I do know is that many of them believe in the ideas behind the mythology of the figure (even Saul Alinsky dedicated his book ‘Rules For Radicals’ to Lucifer).

    The Lucifer mythology is one of rebellion, a rebellion against the the Christian God. But how would this translate to elitist behavior? They define inherent conscience and moral compass (checks and balances put in place by God?) as a “restriction” or imprisonment of the individual, and they seem to only esteem individuals as those seeking their own “Godhood.”

    The way liberty proponents value individualism is very different from the way elitists value individualism.

    Lucifer as an archetypal figure represents a rebellion against almost EVERYTHING, including nature. Of course, nature is not a toy to be played with selfishly because catastrophe inevitably results. Moral compass is a guide that keeps humanity from destroying itself, and without it civilizations fall. Luciferianism, at the very least, fosters destructive tendencies and rebellion against the very fabric of humanity. With such people at the helm of entire nations, millions if not billions of innocents will suffer in the scorched path of elites seeking to revolt against inherent moral and natural boundaries as they role play in an ignorant daydream of satanic hero worship, and this is without a doubt evil.

    Do What Thou Wilt

    Attributed to Aleister Crowley, a self-professed satanist, you will see this ideology pop up in globalist circles and pop-culture icons alike. Crowley apologists often argue that the quote it is taken from refers to the “law of love.” But the love of what? The love of others, or the love of one’s self? Do what thou wilt as long as it does not hurt others, or do what thou wilt regardless of the consequences?

    The latter interpretation is clearly the one globalists have taken to heart. Since elitists consistently treat the lowly masses as vermin that need to be exterminated for the good of the planet (and their own amusement), I see little indication that they have the ability to conceive of love, let alone adopt a philosophy of love. Do what thou wilt, however the idea was originally intended, has become a rationale for the globalist propensity of crushing others in the name of “greatness”.

    Moral Relativism

    Evil people are not as immune to the judgments of others as you might think. In fact, many of them become a bit obsessive about people accepting or even praising the things they do. I can only theorize that if in their minds everyone else subscribes to an evil behavior then it is no longer evil, but normal.

    Moral relativism is the act of rationalizing a destructive or evil process by claiming that a positive end result or intention washes away responsibility. The ends justify the means. Globalists could not care less about the consequences of their actions to others, but they do feel the need to justify those actions in a way that people will embrace. From my observations, the majority of globalist propaganda revolves entirely around the concept of moral relativism and the lie that good is only about perception while evil is a “gray area,” or an illusion. As Kevin Spacey says in the movie 'The Usual Suspects', “The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist…”

    The Solution

    As stated earlier, it really does not matter what brand of social system we implement. It really does not matter what kind of economic model we employ. It really does not matter if we somehow find a way to promote enlightened thinking on a massive scale. None of it matters if we do not also confront the organized evil of the globalist cabal.

    It is interesting how many people strive so hard to avoid acknowledging the fight that is coming by clinging to the notion that the globalists are “misunderstood” or “not important” in the grand scheme of things.

    While I work to promote alternative trade models through localism and alternative-security models through community preparedness teams, I also accept that these efforts are a half-measure; mere preparation for an unavoidable conflict between people who hold the contents of their conscience dear (those who view the non-aggression principle as an integral part of a free and healthy civilization), and the globalists, who hold nothing dear accept themselves, their cult and their ambitions.

    Evil is a part of every human being, just as good is a part of every human being. It is a battle we all struggle with until the day we die. But organized evil is something else entirely. It is not something we have to tolerate, and it is something we can change. Until it is expunged from our society, no other solutions can be fully enacted. Therefore, the solution begins with the end of organized evil, and it is a solution I plan to enact in my own way. The solution begins with the eradication of the globalists.

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Today’s News 18th May 2016

  • The Fed Needs to Raise Rates at the June and December Meetings (Video)

    By EconMatters

     

    It is obvious that the unintended consequences of ZIRP have destroyed financial market structure which ultimately flows through to the broader economy.

    All the financials, the layoffs on Wall Street, and the way assets are trading in the financial markets in general illustrate that financial markets are not healthy right now, and slowly deteriorating every year since the initial benefits of the sugar induced euphoric high of Quantitative Easing Policies by Central Banks around the world has burned off.

    An orderly exit by central banks is the best possible solution for trying to resuscitate some semblance of normal functioning financial market pricing mechanisms for assets around the globe.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Undeniable Evidence That The Real Economy Is Already In Recession

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    You are about to see a chart that is undeniable evidence that we have already entered a major economic slowdown. 

    In the “real economy”, stuff is bought and sold and shipped around the country by trucks, railroads and planes.  When more stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is growing, and when less stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is shrinking.

    I know that might sound really basic, but I want everyone to be on the same page as we proceed in this article. 

    Just because stock prices are artificially high right now does not mean that the U.S. economy is in good shape.  In fact, there was a stock rally at this exact time of the year in 2008 even though the underlying economic fundamentals were rapidly deteriorating.  We all remember what happened later that year, so we should not exactly be rejoicing that precisely the same pattern that we witnessed in 2008 is happening again right in front of our eyes.

    During the month of April, the Cass Transportation Index was down 4.9 percent on a year over year basis.  What this means is that a lot less stuff was bought and sold and shipped around the country in April 2016 when compared to April 2015.  The following comes from Wolf Richter

    Freight shipments by truck and rail in the US fell 4.9% in April from the beaten-down levels of April 2015, according to the Cass Transportation Index, released on Friday. It was the worst April since 2010, which followed the worst March since 2010. In fact, shipment volume over the four months this year was the worst since 2010.

     

    This is no longer statistical “noise” that can easily be brushed off.

    Of course this was not just a one month fluke.  The reality is that we have now seen the Cass Shipping Index decline on a year over year basis for 14 consecutive months.  Here is more commentary and a chart from Wolf Richter

    The Cass Freight Index is not seasonally adjusted. Hence the strong seasonal patterns in the chart. Note the beaten-down first four months of 2016 (red line):

     

    Cass Freight Index - Wolfstreet

    This is undeniable evidence that the “real economy” has been slowing down for more than a year.  In 2007-2008 we saw a similar thing happen, but the Federal Reserve and most of the “experts” boldly assured us that there was not going to be a recession.

    Of course then we immediately proceeded to plunge into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

    Traditionally, railroad activity has been a key indicator of where the U.S. economy is heading next.  Just a few days ago, I wrote about how U.S. rail traffic was down more than 11 percent from a year ago during the month of April, and I included a photo that showed 292 Union Pacific engines sitting in the middle of the Arizona desert doing absolutely nothing.

    Well, just yesterday one of my readers sent me a photograph of a news article from North Dakota about how a similar thing is happening up there.  Hundreds of rail workers are being laid off, and engines are just sitting idle on the tracks because there is literally nothing for them to do…

    North Dakota Railroad Engines Idle

    Intuitively, does it seem like this should be happening in a “healthy” economy?

    Of course not.

    The reason why this is happening is because businesses have been selling less stuff.  Total business sales have now been declining for almost two years, and they are now close to 15 percent lower than they were in late 2014.

    Because sales are way down, unsold inventories are really starting to pile up.  The inventory to sales ratio is now close to the level it was at during the worst moments of the last recession, and many analysts expect it to continue to keep going up.

    Why can’t people understand what is happening?  So far this year, job cut announcements are up 24 percent and the number of commercial bankruptcies is shooting through the roof.  Signs that we are in the early chapters of a new economic downturn are all around us, and yet denial is everywhere.

    For instance, just consider this excerpt from a CNBC article entitled “This key recession signal is broken“…

    Treasury yields are behaving as if they are signaling a recession, but strategists say this time it’s more likely a sign of something else.

     

    The market has been buzzing about the flattening yield curve, or the fact that yields on longer duration Treasurys are getting closer to yields on shorter duration securities.

     

    In the case of 10-year notes and two-year notes, that spread was the flattest Friday than it has been on a closing basis since late 2007. The yield curve had turned negative in 2006 and stayed there for months in 2007 before turning higher ahead of the Great Recession. The spread was at 95 at Friday’s curve but widened Monday to more than 96.

    Treasury yields are very, very clearly telling us that a new recession is here, but because the “experts” don’t want to believe it they are telling us that the signal is “broken”.

     

     

    For many Americans, all that seems to matter is that the stock market has recovered from the horrible crashes last August and earlier this year.  But in the end, I am convinced that those crashes will simply be regarded as “foreshocks” of a much greater crash in our not too distant future.

    But if you don’t want to believe me, perhaps you will listen to Goldman Sachs.  They just came out with six reasons why stocks are about to tumble.

    Or perhaps you will believe Bank of America.  They just came out with nine reasons why a big stock market decline is on the horizon.

    To me, one of the big developments has been the fact that stock buybacks are really starting to dry up.  In fact, announced stock buybacks have declined 38 percent so far this year

    After snapping up trillions of dollars of their own stock in a five-year shopping binge that dwarfed every other buyer, U.S. companies from Apple Inc. to IBM Corp. just put on the brakes. Announced repurchases dropped 38 percent to $244 billion in the last four months, the biggest decline since 2009, data compiled by Birinyi Associates and Bloomberg show. “If the only meaningful source of demand in the market is companies buying their own shares back, then what happens if that goes away?” asked Brad McMillan, CIO of Commonwealth “We should be concerned.”

    Stock buybacks have been one of the key factors keeping stock prices at artificially inflated levels even though underlying economic conditions have been deteriorating.  Now that stock buybacks are drying up, it is going to be difficult for stocks to stay disconnected from economic reality.

    A lot of people have been asking me recently when the next crisis is going to arrive.

    I always tell them that it is already here.

    Just like in early 2008, economic conditions are rapidly deteriorating, but the stock market has not gotten the memo quite yet.

    And just like in 2008, when the financial markets do finally start catching up with reality it will likely happen very quickly.

    So don’t take your eyes off of the deteriorating economic fundamentals, because it is inevitable that the financial markets will follow eventually.

  • Obama: Worst President In U.S. History?

    Bush was a horrible president. At the time, I thought he was the worst president in American history.

    But Obama has made a lot of firsts himself …

    For example, Obama:

    • Sentenced whistleblowers to 31 times the jail time of all prior u.s. presidents combined
    • Has granted less pardons than any president since Garfield, who served only 200 days as president before being assassinated in 1881
    • May be the only U.S. president in history who failed to deliver a single year of at least 3% economic growth (when adjusted for inflation)

    In addition, Obama has presided over:

    And as the New York Times notes this week, Obama has been at war longer than any president in history.

    Worst … president … ever.

  • Welcome To 1984

    Authored by Chris Hedges, originally posted at TruthDig.com,

    The artifice of corporate totalitarianism has been exposed. The citizens, disgusted by the lies and manipulation, have turned on the political establishment. But the game is not over. Corporate power has within its arsenal potent forms of control. It will use them. As the pretense of democracy is unmasked, the naked fist of state repression takes its place. America is about—unless we act quickly—to get ugly.

    “Our political system is decaying,” said Ralph Nader when I reached him by phone in Washington, D.C. “It’s on the way to gangrene. It’s reaching a critical mass of citizen revolt.”

    This moment in American history is what Antonio Gramsci called the “interregnum”—the period when a discredited regime is collapsing but a new one has yet to take its place. There is no guarantee that what comes next will be better. But this space, which will close soon, offers citizens the final chance to embrace a new vision and a new direction.

    This vision will only be obtained through mass acts of civic mobilization and civil disobedience across the country. Nader, who sees this period in American history as crucial, perhaps the last opportunity to save us from tyranny, is planning to rally the left for three days, from May 23 to May 26 at Constitution Hall in Washington, D.C., in what he is calling “Breaking Through Power” or “Citizen’s Revolutionary Week.” He is bringing to the capital scores of activists and community leaders to speak, organize and attempt to mobilize to halt our slide into despotism.

    “The two parties can implode politically,” Nader said. “They can be divided by different candidates and super PACs. But this doesn’t implode their paymasters.”

    “Elections have become off-limits to democracy,” he went on. “They have become off-limits to democracy’s fundamental civil community or civil society. When that happens, the very roots shrivel and dry up. Politics is now a sideshow. Politics does not bother corporate power. Whoever wins, they win. Both parties represent Wall Street over Main Street. Wall Street is embedded in the federal government.”

    Donald Trump, like Hillary Clinton, has no plans to disrupt the corporate machinery, although Wall Street has rallied around Clinton because of her predictability and long service to the financial and military elites. What Trump has done, Nader points out, is channel “the racist, right-wing militants” within the electorate, embodied in large part by the white working poor, into the election process, perhaps for one last time.

    Much of the left, Nader argues, especially with the Democratic Party’s blatant rigging of the primaries to deny Bernie Sanders the nomination, grasps that change will come only by building mass movements. This gives the left, at least until these protofascist forces also give up on the political process, a window of opportunity. If we do not seize it, he warns, we may be doomed.

    He despairs over the collapse of the commercial media, now governed by the primacy of corporate profit.

    “Trump’s campaign has enormous appeal to the commercial mass media,” Nader said. “He brought huge ratings during the debates. He taunted the networks. He said, ‘I’m boycotting this debate. It’s going to cost you profit.’ Has this ever happened before in American history? It shows you the decay, the commercialization of public elections.”

    The impoverished national discourse, fostered by a commercial mass media that does not see serious political debate as profitable and focuses on the trivial, the salacious and the inane, has empowered showmen and con artists such as Trump.

    “Trump speaks in a very plain language, at the third-grade level, according to some linguists,” Nader said. “He speaks like a father figure. He says, ‘I’ll get you jobs. I’ll bring back industry. I’ll bring back manufacturing. I’ll protect you from immigrants.’ The media never challenges him. He is not asked, ‘How are we going do all of this? What is step one? Step two? Is the White House going to ignore the Congress and the courts?’ He astonishes his audience. He amazes them with his bullying, his lying, his insults, like ‘Little Marco,’ the wall Mexico is going to pay for, no more entry in the country by Muslims—a quarter of the human race—until we figure it out. The media never catches up with him. He is always on the offensive. He is always news. The commercial media wants the circus. It gives them high ratings and high profit.”

    The focus on info-entertainment has left not only left the public uninformed and easily manipulated but has locked out the voices that advocate genuine reform and change.

    “The commercial media does not have time for citizen groups and citizen leaders who are really trying to make America great, whether by advancing health safety or economic well-being,” Nader bemoaned. “These groups are overwhelmed. They’re marginalized. They’re kept from nourishing the contents of national, state and local elections. Look at the Sunday news shows. No one can get on to demonstrate that the majority of the people want full Medicare for all with the free choice of doctors and hospitals, not only more efficient but more life-saving. There was a major press conference a few days ago at the National Press Club. The leading advocates of full Medicare for all, or single-payer, were there, Dr. Steffie Woolhandler and Dr. Sidney Wolfe, the heads of Physicians for a National Health Program. This is a group with about 15,000 physicians on board. Nobody came. There was a stringer for an indie media outlet and the corporate crime reporter. There are all kinds of major demonstrations, 1,300 arrests outside the Congress protesting the corruption of money in politics. Again no coverage, except a little on NPR and on ‘Democracy Now!’ ”

    “The system is gamed,” he said. “The only way out of it is to mobilize the civil society.

    “We are organizing the greatest gathering of accomplished citizen advocacy groups on the greatest number of redirections and reforms ever brought together in American history under one roof,” he said of his upcoming event. “The first day is called Breaking Through Power, How it Happens. We have 18 groups who have demonstrated it with tiny budgets for over three decades on issues such as road safety, removing hundreds of hazardous or ineffective pharmaceuticals from the market, changing food habits from junk food to nutrition and rescuing people from death row who were falsely convicted of homicides. What if we tripled the budgets and the staffs of these groups? Eighteen of these groups have a total budget that is less than what one of dozens of CEOs make in a year.”

    Nader called on Sanders to join in the building of a nationwide civic mobilization. He said that while Clinton may borrow some of his rhetoric, she and the Democratic Party establishment would not incorporate Sander’s populist appeals against Wall Street into the party platform. If Sanders does not join a civic mobilization, Nader warned, there would be “a complete disintegration of his movement.”

    Nader also said he was worried that Clinton’s high negativity ratings, along with potential scandals, including the possible release of her highly paid speeches to corporations such as Goldman Sachs, could see Trump win the presidency.

    I have her lecture contract with the Harry Walker lecture agency,” he said. “She had a clause in the contract with these business sponsors, which basically said the doors will be closed. There will be no press. You will pay $1,000 for a stenographer to give me, for my exclusive use, a stenographic record of what I said. You will pay me $5,000 a minute. She has it all. She can’t say, ‘We will look into it or we’ll see if we can find it.’ She has been dissembling. And her latest rant is, ‘I’ll release the transcripts if everyone else does.’ ‘Who is everybody else?’ as Bernie Sanders rebutted. He doesn’t give highly paid speeches behind closed doors to Wall Street firms, business executives or business trade groups. Trump doesn’t give quarter-of-a-million-dollar speeches behind closed doors to business. So by saying ‘I will release all of my transcripts if everyone else does,’ she makes a null and void assertion. This is characteristic of the Clintons’ dissembling and slipperiness. It’s transcripts for Hillary. It’s tax returns for Trump.”

    While Nader supports the building of third parties, he cautions that these parties—he singles out the Green Party and the Libertarian Party—will go nowhere without mass mobilization to pressure the centers of power. He called on the left to reach out to the right in a joint campaign to dismantle the corporate state. Sanders could play a large role in this mobilization, Nader said, because “he is in the eye of the mass media. He is building this rumble from the people.”

    “What does he have to lose?” Nader asked of Sanders. “He’s 74. He can lead this massive movement. I don’t think he wants to let go. His campaign has exceeded his expectations. He is enormously energized. If he leads the civic mobilization before the election, whom is he going to help? He’s going to help the Democratic Party, without having to go around being a one-line toady expressing his loyalty to Hillary. He is going to be undermining the Republican Party. He is going to be saying to the Democratic Party, ‘You better face up to the majoritarian crowds and their agenda, or you’re going to continue losing in these gerrymandered districts to the Republicans in Congress.’ These gerrymandered districts can be overcome with a shift of 10 percent of the vote. Once the rumble from the people gets underway, nothing can stop it. No one person can, of course, lead this. There has to be a groundswell, although Sanders can provide a focal point”

    Nader said that a Clinton presidency would further enflame the right wing and push larger segments of the country toward extremism.

    “We will get more quagmires abroad, more blowback, more slaughter around the world and more training of fighters against us who will be more skilled to bring their fight here,” he said of a Clinton presidency. “Budgets will be more screwed against civilian necessities. There will be more Wall Street speculation. She will be a handmaiden of the corporatists and the military industrial complex. There comes a time, in any society, where the rubber band snaps, where society can’t take it anymore.”

  • Congressman Exposes Porn Habit With 'Innocent' Facebook Post

    Well that's embarrassing…

    Meet 'Conservative' Mike Webb – he is running for U.S. Congress in Virginia's 8th District, and he would appreciate your vote.

     

    He would also appreciate, as Gawker reports, judging from a screenshot uploaded to his Facebook page earlier today, a little alone time with the pages “IVONE SEXY AMATEUR” and “LAYLA RIVERA TIGHT BOOTY.”

    For over a day now the following screen-grab – showing his investigation into a Human Resources company – has been posted to his campaign page… the only thing is – the 2 far left tabs – based on our deep and lengthy research are pornographic movie sites…

     

    Ok – so we have all done it – come on. But the story gets better, as Webb then offers the following explanation for his surfing habits (please remove all fluids from your mouth before reading)…

    Curious by nature, I wanted to test the suggestion that somehow, lurking out in the pornographic world there is some evil operator waiting for the one in a gazillion chance that a candidate for federal office would go to that particular website and thereby be infected with a virus that would cause his or her FEC data file to crash the FECfile application each time that it was loaded on the day of the filing deadline, as well as impact other critical campaign systems.

     

    Well, the Geek Squad techs testified to me, after servicing thousands of computers at the Baileys Crossroads location that they had never seen any computer using their signature virus protection for the time period to acquire over 4800 viruses, 300 of which would require re-installation of the operating system. We are currently awaiting their attempt at recovery of files on that machine accidentally deleted when they failed to backup files before re-installation, a scenario about which Matthew Wavro speculated openly to me before we were informed by the Geek Squad that that had indeed occurred….

     

    But, now let me tell you the results of my empirical inquiry that introduced me to Layla and Ivone. Around Powerball lottery time, January 9, 2016, I calculated the odds that my friend Rev. Howard John Wesley and I working independently arrived at the same prayer plan, and I was able to determine that there was about a one in a billion chance that that could have occurred in the way that it did. (https://www.facebook.com/search/top/…). Well, as much as folks like Duffy Taylor want to hope that the Devil is waiting for Christian candidates on a particular pornographic website to infect his or her FEC data file is even more improbable than my Paul and Silas story, and I know that Duffy Taylor is not a man of faith belief; so, I don’t know how he empirically arrives at his conclusion. I couldn’t see the probability or possibility without a RAND computer.

     

    But, that is the news that will never be printed, but no matter. We found a few more “silent majority” worms today, but we also picked up a few more of the faithful. So, not a bad day, at all.

    As one witty Twitter-er quipped… What's more embarrassing, the porn tabs or the fact that he is using Yahoo as a search engine? I’m going to go with Yahoo on this one.

  • Middle Class Destitution – A Devastating Tale From America's Heartland

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    He had made the drive enough times to already suspect what he might find. Stride Rite had left Huntington for Mexico at the tail end of the recession; Breyers Ice Cream had closed its doors after 100 years. In the weeks after each factory closing in his part of Indiana, Lewandowski had listened to politicians make promises about jobs — high-tech jobs, right-to-work jobs, clean-energy jobs — but instead Indiana had lost 60,000 middle-class jobs in the past decade and replaced them with a surge of low-paying work in health care, hospitality and fast food. Wages of male high school graduates had dropped 19 percent in the past two decades, and the wealth divide between the middle class and the upper class had quadrupled.

     

    “These jobs aren’t the solution so much as they’re part of the problem,” Lewandowski said, and now the result of so much churn was becoming evident all across Indiana and lately in Huntington, too. Fast-food consumption was beginning to tick up. Poverty was up. Foreclosures were up. Meth usage up. Heroin up. Death rate up. In Dan Quayle’s Middle America, one of the biggest news stories of the year had been the case of a mother who had let her three-week-old child suck heroin off her finger.

     

    “Despair is our business, and business is booming,” Lewandowski said…

     

    “This is how it feels to be sold out by your country.”

     

    “It’s pure greed.”

     

    “They wanted to add another 6 feet to their yachts.”

     

    “We’re becoming like a third-world country. We’re going to have nothing left but fast food.”

     

    "Fast food and hedge funds. That’s where we’re going.”

     

    – From the Washington Post article: From Belief to Outrage: The Decline of the Middle Class Reaches the Next American Town

    I write a lot about the middle class. It’s been one of the core themes here at Liberty Blitzkrieg since inception, yet my posts tend to be filled with statistics and sarcasm, and often lack the crucial element of heart. In order to truly connect with the public and shift their sentiments from apathy to action, it’s imperative to create a deep emotional connection. I admittedly have not done a great job in this regard. Fortunately for all of us, Eli Saslow of the Washington Post has done just that.

    I read a lot of articles, and I can’t remember anything that hit me as hard as what he published this past weekend. It tells the tale of the spirit-crushing decimation of the American middle class through the lens of eternal optimist, Chris Setser. Chris is a man who always went above and beyond in order to provide a good life for himself and his family. Working the graveyard shift at an Indiana United Technologies plant so that he could be home when his kids came home from school, Mr. Setser lived his entire life living by the mantra: “Things have a way of working in the end.” Until they didn’t.

    Chris’ transformation from an optimistic Democrat, to a pissed off, jaded Trump supporter, is a microcosm for what’s happening all across the country. Through his eyes, you witness a justified desperation, and a painful recognition that working hard and staying positive simply aren’t good enough in America’s current hollowed out, oligarch-owned, shell company of an economy.

    Below, I provide some excerpts from the article, but these select passages don’t do it justice. I think this piece is so important, it’s imperative you read it in full and share it with everyone you know. The future of America rests upon reversing this pernicious trend.

    From the Washington Post:

    Chris Setser worked a 12-hour graveyard shift while his children slept, cleaned the house while they were at school and then went outside to wait for the bus bringing them home. He stood on the porch as he often did and surveyed the life he had built. The lawn was trimmed. The stairs were swept. The weekly family schedule was printed on a chalkboard. A sign near the door read, “A Stable Home Is A Happy Home,” and now a school bus came rolling down a street lined by wide sidewalks and American flags toward a five-bedroom house on the corner lot.

     

    “Right on time,” Setser called out to the driver, waving to his children as they came off the bus.

     

    In came 14-year-old Ashley, holding a payment notice for a school field trip. “Are we going to become one of those families with a voucher?” she asked.

    “Don’t worry,” he said, handing her $20 from his wallet.

     

    All around him an ideological crisis was spreading across Middle America as it continued its long fall into dependency: median wages down across the country, average income down, total wealth down in the past decade by 28 percent. For the first time ever, the vaunted middle class was not the country’s base but a disenfranchised minority, down from 61 percent of the population in the 1970s to just 49 percent as of last year. As a result of that decline, confusion was turning into fear. Fear was giving way to resentment. Resentment was hardening into a sense of outrage that was unhinging the country’s politics and upending a presidential election.

     

    Setser had heard rumors earlier in the day that the company had decided to move its operations to Mexico, but he found them hard to believe. While dozens of other manufactures had left Northeast Indiana, his factory, United Technologies Electronic Controls, or UTEC, was still taking back contracts from China and winning president’s awards for performance. It was the area’s largest employer and also a rare place where America’s fraying social contract had remained mostly intact: Employees helped the factory’s parent corporation earn more than $6 billion in annual profit. In return they got a decent hourly salary with good overtime, bonuses for completing work-training programs, a turkey to take home on Thanksgiving and a ham on Christmas. “Successful businesses improve the human condition,” read one sign posted on the factory wall.

     

    But on that night in February, another announcement had come over the factory speakers, instructing all UTEC employees to report to the cafeteria. The factory manager was standing at the front of the room, holding a piece of paper and reading into a microphone.

     

    “A difficult decision,” he said.

     

    “Relocation is best,” he said.

     

    “Northern Mexico,” he said.

     

    “No questions,” he said, and then he told employees they would have an hour-long break in the cafeteria to process the news before returning to their lines.

     

    Together between his overtime and Bowers’s small salary at another manufacturer in Fort Wayne, they had remained firmly in the middle class by finding ways to make their money stretch. When they wanted to drive to Florida for their first overnight vacation in a decade, Setser could volunteer for more overtime to save up the cash. When they wanted a new TV, he could spend the 10 percent premium he earned for working third shift. He had cashed out part of his 401(k) account to pay for his daughter’s braces, purchased some of their basic household items with credit cards and taken out a no-money-down loan on their $95,000 house.

     

    He had made the drive enough times to already suspect what he might find. Stride Rite had left Huntington for Mexico at the tail end of the recession; Breyers Ice Cream had closed its doors after 100 years. In the weeks after each factory closing in his part of Indiana, Lewandowski had listened to politicians make promises about jobs — high-tech jobs, right-to-work jobs, clean-energy jobs — but instead Indiana had lost 60,000 middle-class jobs in the past decade and replaced them with a surge of low-paying work in health care, hospitality and fast food. Wages of male high school graduates had dropped 19 percent in the past two decades, and the wealth divide between the middle class and the upper class had quadrupled.

     

    “These jobs aren’t the solution so much as they’re part of the problem,” Lewandowski said, and now the result of so much churn was becoming evident all across Indiana and lately in Huntington, too. Fast-food consumption was beginning to tick up. Poverty was up. Foreclosures were up. Meth usage up. Heroin up. Death rate up. In Dan Quayle’s Middle America, one of the biggest news stories of the year had been the case of a mother who had let her three-week-old child suck heroin off her finger.

     

    “Despair is our business, and business is booming,” Lewandowski said. “Workers have lost all agency in their lives. They’ve based their lives on believing in something that turned out to be a lie. They work when they can, for what they can, for as long as they can until it ends.”

     

    As second shift finished in Huntington, several of those UTEC workers gathered at an Applebee’s that displayed construction hats on the wall. Earlier in the day, an employee had been suspended for taping a “Run for the Border” bumper sticker to one of the company’s roving robots — the biggest act of rebellion yet. A few employees had been trying to popularize a boycott of United Technologies products, and others had started using their regular ­10-minute breaks to campaign for Trump in a traditionally Democratic factory. But for the most part their work was continuing unchanged, with attendance steady and factory production on the rise. They couldn’t risk losing their jobs or their UTEC severance packages, so the only way to vent was to come here, where the discussion on this night was of a country in decline.

     

    “This is how it feels to be sold out by your country.”“It’s pure greed.”

     

    “They wanted to add another 6 feet to their yachts.”

     

    “We’re becoming like a third-world country. We’re going to have nothing left but fast food.”

     

    “Fast food and hedge funds. That’s where we’re going.”

     

    “We’re getting to the point where there aren’t really any good options left,” he said. “The system is broken. Maybe its time to blow it up and start from scratch, like Trump’s been saying.”

     

    Krystal rolled her eyes at him. “Come on. You’re a Democrat.”

     

    “I was. But that was before we started turning into a weak country,” he said. “Pretty soon there won’t be anything left. We’ll all be flipping burgers.”

     

    “Fine, but so what?” she said. “We just turn everything over to the guy who yells the loudest?”

     

    “You said it always evens out,” she told him.

     

    “Maybe I was wrong,” he said, but now his voice was quiet.

     

    “You said things just have a way of working.”

     

    “Maybe not,” he said, because with each passing day he was seeing it more clearly. The town was losing its best employer, and all around him stability was giving way to uncertainty, to resentment, to anger, to fear.

    Haunting and heartbreaking. What’s worse, it’s not just in the manufacturing heartland where the middle class is getting pummeled. In fact, the middle class is getting squeezed so badly, many cities now see a need to roll out public housing projects targeting this formerly independent and relatively prosperous demographic.

    Although I previously reported on this as it pertained to the extremely affluent city of Palo Alto in the post, The New “Middle Class” – Making $250,000 a Year in Palo Alto Qualifies for Housing Subsidies, it appears this may be more of a trend than an anomaly.

    As the Wall Street Journal reports in the piece, Rising U.S. Rents Squeeze the Middle Class:

    Rising rents in cities across the nation are hurting the poorest residents, but those who are higher on the income ladder might be bearing the brunt of the pain.

     

    A  study set to be released on Monday shows that a far bigger proportion of middle-class renters in New York were squeezed by rising rents than were the lowest-income renters.

     

    The study by New York University’s Furman Center examined rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods such as Brooklyn’s Williamsburg section and Harlem, where rents jumped 80% and 53%, respectively, between 1990 and 2014. While the share of the poorest families struggling to afford rent in those sections increased by 7.6 percentage points from 2000 to 2014, the share of middle-income households struggling to afford rent jumped 18 percentage points.

     

    In Boston, median asking rents have increased at an annual rate of 13.2% since 2010, far outstripping the 2.4% average annual increase in income. Mayor Marty Walsh has pledged to build 20,000 units of middle-income housing through a mix of initiatives such as rezoning neighborhoods further from the city center and offering tax breaks to developers who build more moderately priced housing.

     

    “We really do spend the vast majority of our resources on low-income families but we know we need to serve the middle income,” said Sheila Dillon, Boston’s chief of housing.

     

    Even in Atlanta, historically one of the most affordable cities for middle-class families, a rapid rise in rents has taken its toll on those families. The city last week passed a new ordinance requiring developers who receive tax breaks to set aside a portion of units aimed at lower-income earners. It is also considering requiring developers to include units targeted at slightly more affluent families, such as teachers and police officers.

     

    New York City has pledged to build or preserve 44,000 units for middle-income families over the next decade. Low-income households “have been straining to pay their rents in these neighborhoods for years, and, as rents continue to rise, households in higher-income tiers are having the same experience,” said a spokeswoman for New York City’s Housing Preservation and Development Department.

    I don’t know about you, but this isn’t the kind of country I want to live in.

  • Sworn Depositions Of Close Clinton Aides Begin This Week

    The FBI’s probe into Clinton’s use of a private server isn’t the only noose that is keeping Clinton (and the State Department) up at night: this week interviews begin in a separate Judicial Watch civil suit, previously profiled here, against key State Department figures, all of whom just happen to be close co-workers of Hillary.

    Accordng to Time, two close Clinton aides, Huma Abedin and Cheryl Mills, will testify under oath this month and next, Judicial Watch announced today. The judge in the case said earlier this month he may force Clinton herself to testify after the first round of interviews is completed. That has set up the prospect of the Democratic front-runner for the White House facing off under oath against one of her most dogged pursuers as early as July, just months before the November election.

    It is telling that Judicial Watch’s potentially big win has come not from any dark conspiracy it has uncovered, but from what it has not. The judge has limited the group to a narrow line of inquiry designed to answer a simple question: why did Clinton set up a private server and use it for all her work e-mails as Secretary of State? Clinton says it was matter of convenience, but over the course of the trial, the judge has given credence to the allegation that she was intentionally thwarting the federal laws ensuring government transparency.

     

    And that’s why the messy, drawn out drama over case No. F-2013-08812 matters. Clinton is no stranger to allegations that amount to nothing. From Whitewater to Benghazi her political opponents have tried and failed to find evidence that she committed a crime. A law enforcement official familiar with the separate FBI investigation into how classified information got onto her private server says there is little evidence of a crime there either, though the probe is continuing.

     

    But Clinton may have violated civil law if she intentionally thwarted FOIA or the Federal Records Act, which requires public officials to take a number of steps to preserve and make public their work related documents, according to experts and judges handling the matter in the courts. Which means that for many voters it will be Clinton’s trustworthiness that is on trial in the FOIA case.

    According to the Wall Street Journal, depositions will also be given under oath by Lewis Lukens, a former deputy assistant secretary of state, and Bryan Pagliano, the IT staffer who set up Clinton’s private server. The interviews are set to begin this week. Pagliano refused to testify in front of Congress last year citing his fith amendment, but has since been offered immunity by the Justice Department in a twist that some say could be the critical break in any objective probe into Hillary’s activities. As a reminder, Huma Abedin has already testified in the FBI’s investigation into Clinton’s use of a private server.

    As is currently the case with the FBI investigation, whether Clinton herself will be forced to testify in the civil suit is unclear.

    Between the FBI investigation, and the civil suit, if Clinton comes away from everything unscathed then it’s time to reassign the nickname “Teflon Don” from John Gotti to Hillary.

    Or not. With support from friends in high places, there is a very good chance that we’ll be seeing Clinton all smiles on a debate stage this fall with not a care in the world about this entire issue. The market agrees: when asked “Will a federal criminal charge be filed against Hillary Clinton in 2016?”, the answer provided by PredictIt bettors is trivial: 24%.

  • Obama's Cuban Ambitions As Seen By Cubans Themselves

    Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    For half a century, Americans have been largely unable to visit Cuba and have had to rely on the US government and media for an understanding of the political, social and economic conditions there. What has been described as the “American Berlin Wall” has been successful in providing Americans with quite an inaccurate view.

    Throughout this period, those Cubans who exited the island in 1959 (and their descendants) have maintained a propaganda programme that, rightly or wrongly, reflected their desire to return to Cuba and to once again rule it. Additionally, they’ve contributed regularly to both the primary US political parties in order to assure that the blockade would be maintained and that Americans would be kept out until such time as the island could be re-taken.

    This is not to say that all is rosy in Cuba. For the past 25 years or more, I’ve periodically spent time there, observing its developments, beginning with its attempt to recover from the loss of its principle trading partner, the Soviet Union, in the early 1990s. It’s been a rocky road, as Cuba has sought to become an international tourist destination whilst attempting to maintain a closed, communist society. Results have been mixed, to say the least.

    Still, the US government embargo remains in place and Americans have little real understanding of Cuba, or how the Cuban people view the US. All Americans can rely on is the “official view”—reports fed to the US media by their government, which, in turn, are influenced by Miami-based Cubans.

    Recently, Barrack Obama visited Cuba, gave speeches and even walked the streets of Havana, “meeting the people”. Americans have now had time to digest the official US view of that visit, yet, understandably, have no idea whatsoever as to the Cuban view.

    If I could sum up the Cuban people’s perception, based upon discussions with Cubans in Havana after the visit, I’d say that the best word to describe their reaction would be “wary”. Cubans are only too aware that Americans have, for half a century, received a highly one-sided view of anything Cuban and, for the most part, tend to agree with their leaders that any dealings with the US government should be cautious.

    As in any country, there are varied viewpoints and, to be sure, the Cubans who oppose the existing regime to the point that they’ve stolen a boat and braved the seas to escape Cuba, would have a far different view from those who are glad to remain in Cuba.

    A particular concern that they tend to voice is that Americans leaders are arrogant, seeming to believe that they have all the answers for every country and seem to perceive themselves as magnanimous, in offering to unilaterally change other countries “for the better”. In the present instance, they resent Mister Obama stating in a Havana speech that his country is considering diminishing its economic punishment of Cuba, but that, first, he would need to be assured that the Cuban political structure be altered to reflect the American model more closely. As stated by President Raul Castro in the Havana Reporter, “he should not expect the Cuban people to give up their destiny…for which they have made huge sacrifices.”

    A continuing sore in the side of Cuba is the occupation of Guantanamo Bay. Cubans, when confronted with their government’s admitted incarceration of some citizens for political reasons, may respond by reminding Americans that Cubans regard Guantanamo as “the horrible torture center”, housing the US government’s political prisoners. They are bolstered in their view by American presidential candidates who vehemently support the continued violation of the Geneva Convention at Guantanamo. (Most Cubans have television and there’s no restriction on American broadcasts. Cubans therefore know far more about the US than Americans know about Cuba.)

    Again, quoting the Havana Reporter, “The Cuban authorities request for the illegally occupied military territory to be returned, although spokespeople for Obama’s administration say that the subject is not on the agenda for discussion.”

    Again, the American presidential message, as seen from the Cuban perspective, appears to be, “We’ll decide what we will or won’t do for you, and we’ll decide what you’ll do for us.”

    And the discussion is not an isolated one. For many years, the UN has regularly held votes on the legality and morality of the blockade and, in each case, all members except the US and Israel vote for its elimination. Just prior to Mister Obama’s Cuban visit, Federica Mogherini, Vice President of the European Commission, reiterated the UN request for the “rejection of the economic, commercial and financial blockade imposed on Cuba by the US”, which she described as both outdated and illegal.

    In his book, “Obama and the Empire”, Fidel Castro comments, “You state…that your country…would not tolerate any intervention in the hemisphere, reiterating that this right must be respected, while demanding the right to intervene anywhere in the world with the aid of hundreds of military bases and naval, air and space forces distributed across the planet. I ask: Is that the way in which the United States expresses its respect for freedom, democracy and human rights?”

    To be sure, Mister Castro has his own agenda, as do all political leaders, yet his point is well-taken. In spite of US pressure, he has outlasted ten US presidents since 1959. Cuba boasts universal literacy and the lowest rate of violent crime in the hemisphere, whereas, in the US, the percentage of those who are functionally illiterate varies between 15% and 35% (depending on the definition of illiteracy). The US also has both the highest number of prison inmates and the highest percentage of inmates per capita.

    Whether the US or Cuba has the greater claim to the moral high ground is therefore very much an individual assessment.

    But, what’s the view on the street in Havana? What’s the reaction of the average Cuban to the Obama visit? Well, for a start, people in the street, who are accustomed to seeing their leaders with a minimal entourage and few armed guards, were surprised to see a virtual army of suited protectors, making Mister Obama’s stroll through Havana anything but casual.

    Of course, this has become the norm for any American leader, but what message does this convey, when the visitor displays such a show of force?

    In spite of this; however, a young waiter at a bistro in the popular Empedrado Callejón del Chorro commented that, whilst he doubted the sincerity of the visit, anything that brings the two countries closer together can only be an improvement. And, to be sure, younger Cubans are more likely than the previous generations to acknowledge that the inevitable passage out of the Castro’s leadership may be overdue, but that a softening of Cuban distrust of the “American imperialists” can only take place if the American government learns to regard Cuba as a sovereign nation, not as a whipping boy.

    And, of course, this is a sentiment that we see worldwide. The more the US positions itself as the world’s policeman, the more it alienates the peoples of other countries. At a time when the US has begun its economic decline, it would do well to soften its approach, yet it is clearly doing the exact opposite. This does not bode well for the US. No one likes a bully. Bullies are typically only tolerated until they weaken. When this occurs, people turn on the bully, whether he is a person, or indeed, a government.

    What we are observing is the decline of a large nation and, soon, the rebirth of a small one. As events unfold, the comparisons between the two will be fascinating to observe.

  • Introducing The USS Zumwalt – The US Navy's New $4.4 Billion Ship

    Dear readers, the U.S Navy would like to introduce to you its most technologically sophisticated destroyer to date: The USS Zumwalt.

     

    The USS Zumwalt (designed by Raytheon) is powered by electricity produced by turbines, has guns that can hit targets over 70 miles away, and has a sharp-angled geometric design that apparently makes the 610 foot long ship 50 times more difficult to detect on radar. It also has a state-of-the-art weapon launcher designed to fire missiles for sea, land, and air attacks. All of this for a taxpayer cost of a mere $4.4 billion.

    During the testing phase for the ship, a lobsterman told the Associated Press that the vessel appeared to be a 50 to 60 foot fishing boat on his radar.

    The ship is set to be formally commissioned in October in Baltimore, and will have a home port of San Diego.

     

    Here is a time-lapse video posted by the Navy showing the ship’s initial launch in 2013

    See, the defense budget needs to be as large as it is in order to build behemoth warships such as this. The good news is that it will only show up as small fishing boat when sent to the Fiery Cross Reef in order to agitate China.

    The only question is how long before this ship also suffers a terminal failure.

    Recall that in December one of the Navy’s newest ships had to be towed more than 40 miles to port after it broke down less than a month after it was commissioned into service. The littoral combat ship USS Milwaukee, which cost a far more modest $360 million, broke down just days after its was put into service.

    For $4.4 billion, the Zumwalt’s failure should be truly breathtaking.

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Today’s News 17th May 2016

  • BofA Research Analyst Paul Ciana Stopped Out on Oil Short Call (Video)

    By EconMatters

    Technical Analysis is a tool that requires a lot of Art in its application compiled with the mathematical science underlying the craft.

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  • Belgian Police Warn Citizens Not To Use Facebook's Reaction Buttons

    Submitted by Michaela Whitton via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Belgian police are warning users not to use the Facebook Reactions feature to respond to posts if they want to protect their privacy. In February, the series of six emoticons, allowing users to express a range of emotions from anger to love, were added to the original thumbs-up option. They came in response to calls for a ‘Dislike’ button.

    However, the new expressions are another big ‘like’ for Facebook and a ‘dislike’ for its users — according to Belgian police who claim the site is using them as a way to collect information on people to target advertising toward them. In a statement released on their official website on Wednesday, the Belgian force warned people to avoid using the series of emoticons if they want to preserve their privacy.

    The statement on the police website reads, “The icons help not only express your feelings, they also help Facebook assess the effectiveness of the ads on your profile.” It adds“One more reason not to click if you want to protect your privacy.”

    The statement warns that users are simply a ‘product’ to Facebook, claiming their reactions to posts are helping the social networking giant build up a profile of them. As a result of the profiling, the site will target ads it thinks users will be more receptive to based on how they are reacting to specific posts at the time.

    By limiting the number of icons to six, Facebook is counting on you to express your thoughts more easily so that the algorithms that run in the background are more effective,” the police said. “By mouse clicks you can let them know what makes you happy.”

    In short, the moment Facebook gauges that the user is in a good mood, it will cash in on that by showing them an ad.

     

    It’s no secret Facebook’s growth is fuelled by advertising. In 2015, the company received 96.5% of its revenue from ads, which generated a staggering $17.08 billion in revenue. Just days after former Facebook employees accused the platform of censoring stories while pushing others, few will be surprised to learn the marketing champion has seized another opportunity to do what it does best — collect more information on its users.

    *  *  *

    Full Statement (via Belgium Police) Google Translated: Facebook Reactions, a new intrusion into your privacy

    Facebook never misses an opportunity to improve the collection of information about us and they proved it again last February. This innovation has generated a lot of questions if we are to believe your mails. The "like" button – thumbs up, you know. But many users complained of being unable to express their disappointment or not being able to say they disliked content.

     

    Facebook decided to meet their demand. After an investigation followed by a test phase carried out in Ireland and Spain, you saw appear in late February, six new small icons. If we had to describe them, we could say that we now have a symbol to say "I love", another to express his joy, a third say to his surprise, and others to share his amusement, his sadness or even anger.

     

    The question that some of you have asked me was why Facebook limited them to six.

     

    In fact, as you know, for Facebook, we are also a product. The reactions that we express it possible to know us better and so, as stated in the social network, to offer us the best possible experience in terms of our profile that is more accurate.

     

    But Facebook is also a marketing champion. It now has a medium which allows it to measure our reactions to the publications of our friends or pages that we follow. And now, in addition to allowing you to express your feelings, those little icons will also help verify the effectiveness of advertisements that are present on your profile.

     

    Limiting them to six, Facebook account the fact that you express your thoughts more easily allowing the algorithms running in the background to target you. With your clicks, it will be possible to determine those contents that put you in a good mood. So that will help Facebook find the perfect location, on your profile, allowing it to display content that will arouse your curiosity but also to choose the time you present it. If it appears that you are in a good mood phase, so it can deduce that you are more receptive and able to sell spaces explaining advertisers that they will have more chance to see you react.

     

    In conclusion, it will be one more reason not to click too fast if you want to preserve your privacy.

  • "Russia Did More 'Good' In 30 Days Than The US Did In A Year" – The Only Accredited Western Journalist In Damascus Speaks Up

    On behalf of Prensa Latina news agency, Miguel Fernandez was the only journalist from the Western world accredited to work in the Syrian capital of Damascus for nearly a year. After returning home to Havana, Fernandez gave Sputnik News an exclusive interview in which he reflects back on what he experienced in the war torn country.

    Fernandez first gets into the single biggest lesson he learned, which is that the people of Syria don't give in, they don't stop pursuing the dream of having a prosperous country.

    "Seeing how these people don't give in, that they dream about a prosperous country, is the biggest lesson that Syria gave me"

    Miguel then reflects back on when a colleague of his first arrived in the city, and as the journalist took him around the city, everything was seemingly so normal that his friend asked "where is the war?"

    "Fear is the first thing that war creates, that fear which forces people to be on guard. However, Damascus broke that pattern. When my colleague arrived I took him around the city and he noticed that buses and taxis are traveling around, people are sitting in cafes and going shopping, children are going to school. He asked me, 'where is the war?'"

     

    "I said, I will show you before we leave for Cuba. And after less than a day, when we were traveling in a taxi, a mortar shell fell in front of us, onto a group of people, some of whom died, and there was chaos all around."

     

    "I looked at that and I said – that is war. That resistance of the Syrian people, the unwillingness to accept the hardships of war, has inspired me."

    The most harrowing moment for Fernandez was during the fall of Palmyra to the terrorists in May 2011 [later to be taken back from ISIS, and even recently held a concert that was put on by Russia's famous Mariinsky Theatre Orchestra]. Fernandez reflected on a time in which monuments were destroyed, and children under Daesh leadership were made to kill captured Syrian soldiers.

    "Palmyra is one of ten UNESCO World Heritage sites in Syria, an oasis in the desert, full of mystical stories. Seeing how the Arch of Triumph and other monuments were destroyed. A terrible scene that I will never forget, was when children under the leadership of Daesh killed 50 captured Syrian soldiers who were on their knees."

     

    "For me, that was the saddest moment, because I felt that the war was not only against Syria, but against the world, our culture, our values, our heritage. When I say ours, I mean civilization. These elements (Daesh) are savages. They can destroy a monument in the same way that they cut a child's head off."

    Fernandez also recalled how differently the Syrian people view Russia and the United States, and that the Russian participation did not feel like an intervention at all. Importantly, Miguel discusses the stark differences between the precision and effectiveness of the US vs Russian air strikes as well. Notably that US airstrikes were not coordinated and often hit Syrian infrastructure, as opposed to Russia's strikes, which destroyed more Daesh infrastructure in 30 days than the US had been able to accomplish in a year's time.

    "I am fair with blue eyes, so they often confused me with Russians and affectionately greeted me. Syrians believe in Russia because for a long time they were in conflict with the US and some European powers and Russia was the only friendly power."

     

    "I was there when Russia entered the war in September 2015 and Syrians did not perceive it as an intervention, but as support and a sign of solidarity," Fernandez explained.

     

    "For over a year before that the US had led an international coalition that didn't show any results. The Americans carried out bombings but Daesh spread even further, and seized new positions."

     

    "Those airstrikes were not coordinated and often hit Syrian infrastructure, hospitals and schools. The Russian airstrikes didn't, because they entered the war at the request of Damascus and their activities were coordinated in order to be effective and not bring harm to civilians."

     

    "During the first 30 days of bombing the Russians were able to destroy 40 percent of Daesh's infrastructure, which the US and its allies hadn't been able to do for a year."

    Fernandez ended the interview with a story of a Syrian soldier who complimented him by breaking bread and sharing it with the journalist, as a tribute to what the soldier said was Cuban bravery.

    "One of the soldiers, he was over 50, bearded, dirty, covered in powder and slush, he came to me, broke his bread in two and offered me half."

     

    "I refused, because I had already had breakfast at home and had no idea how many hours he had gone without eating. But my translator told me to take the bread, explaining that he wanted to share the bread with me because I am Cuban and he had always been told that Cuban soldiers are very brave and that if he shares the bread with me, it will bring him luck in the next battle."

     

    "I shed a few tears, because I am not a warrior, and I was very touched that he had such an impression about my nation,"

     

    * * *

    With all of the speculation and observations from the pundits on television, who have never stepped foot inside the war torn country of Syria, it is helpful to get a first hand account of what's taking place on the ground. What one may find, is that those that sit around and parrot the "Russia Bad/US Good" narrative all day may not be exactly providing the complete picture.

  • Guest Post: The Stunning Parallels Between The United States And Nazi Germany

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    Most Americans may not like to hear this, but the truth is that modern day America very closely resembles Nazi Germany.  If you initially recoiled when you read the headline to this article, that is understandable.  After all, most of us were raised to deeply love this country.  But I would ask you to consider the evidence that I have compiled before you pass judgment on the matter.  Most citizens of this nation know that something has gone deeply wrong, and I would suggest that just like the Nazis, all of the pageantry and beauty in our society masks an evil which has grown to a level that is almost unspeakable.  And just like the Germans, we don’t do ourselves any favors by turning a blind eye to what is going on.  The following are some stunning parallels between the United States and Nazi Germany…

    #1 Human Experimentation

    The fact that the Nazis conducted scientific experiments on their prisoners has been heavily documented, but many Americans may not realize that we have been conducting similar experiments for decades.  The following comes from author John Whitehead

    In Alabama, for example, 600 black men with syphilis were allowed to suffer without proper medical treatment in order to study the natural progression of untreated syphilis. In California, older prisoners had testicles from livestock and from recently executed convicts implanted in them to test their virility. In Connecticut, mental patients were injected with hepatitis.

     

    In Maryland, sleeping prisoners had a pandemic flu virus sprayed up their noses. In Georgia, two dozen “volunteering” prison inmates had gonorrhea bacteria pumped directly into their urinary tracts through the penis. In Michigan, male patients at an insane asylum were exposed to the flu after first being injected with an experimental flu vaccine. In Minnesota, 11 public service employee “volunteers” were injected with malaria, then starved for five days.

     

    In New York, dying patients had cancer cells introduced into their systems. In Ohio, over 100 inmates were injected with live cancer cells. Also in New York, prisoners at a reformatory prison were also split into two groups to determine how a deadly stomach virus was spread: the first group was made to swallow an unfiltered stool suspension, while the second group merely breathed in germs sprayed into the air. And in Staten Island, children with mental retardation were given hepatitis orally and by injection to see if they could then be cured.

    And while times may have changed, the truth is that we are still being experimented on against our will.  Just check out what the New York Daily News says is happening in New York City this month…

    Don’t hold your breath, it’s only a test.

     

    The Department of Homeland Security will release “harmless particle materials” in the city’s subway system next week.

     

    The “non-toxic, safe gas material” will be released at subway stations in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens in order to understand where hazardous material would travel in the event of a biological terrorist attack.

    In addition, let us not forget that we systematically create and perform experiments on unborn baby children

    A shocking new report indicates scientists have found a way for human embryos to live outside the womb for 14 days, which is a record, so they can be experimented on for a longer period of time.

     

    Leading pro-life advocates are outraged that scientists would specifically create unique human beings to purposefully experiment on and later destroy just for research. They are worried scientists will continue creating more unborn human people who will be subjected to research for a longer duration of their embryonic life.

    What we are doing is so evil that it is hard to put into words, and yet most Americans have come to accept this kind of sick behavior as perfectly normal.

    #2 Socialism

    The Nazis were hardcore socialists, and they were very proud of this fact.  For example, National Socialist theologian Gregor Strasser once made the following statement

    We National Socialists are enemies, deadly enemies, of the present capitalist system with its exploitation of the economically weak … and we are resolved under all circumstances to destroy this system.

    Unfortunately, the United States is rapidly moving in a similar direction.  An avowed socialist, Bernie Sanders, is wildly popular with Democrats, and more than half of all U.S. adults under the age of 30 now say that they reject capitalism.

    #3 Free Stuff

    Just like Bernie Sanders wants to do, the Nazis gave out lots and lots of free stuff.  Kitty Werthmann was a child living a peaceful life in Austria when Hitler took over her nation, and I will be quoting her extensively for the rest of this article.  She says that once the Nazis took control in Austria, they started handing out lots of freebies

    Newlyweds immediately received a $1,000 loan from the government to establish a household. We had big programs for families. All day care and education were free. High schools were taken over by the government and college tuition was subsidized. Everyone was entitled to free handouts, such as food stamps, clothing, and housing.

    #4 Taxes

    Free stuff may sound like a good idea, but someone has to pay for it.  According to Kitty Werthmann, once the Nazis took control of Austria “our tax rates went up to 80% of our income“, and that absolutely choked the life out of the free market system.

    Sadly, things are moving in the exact same direction in the United States.  When the federal income tax was first implemented a little over a century ago, most Americans were taxed at a rate of just one percent.  But today, we are being taxed into oblivion.  I recently wrote an article in which I listed 97 different taxes that Americans pay each year, and when you add all of those taxes together some Americans end up paying out more than 50 percent of their incomes in taxes.

    #5 Obamacare

    Would it surprise you to learn that the Nazis had their own version of Obamacare?  The following is some more eyewitness testimony from Kitty Werthmann

    Before Hitler, we had very good medical care. Many American doctors trained at the University of Vienna. After Hitler, health care was socialized, free for everyone. Doctors were salaried by the government. The problem was, since it was free, the people were going to the doctors for everything. When the good doctor arrived at his office at 8 a.m., 40 people were already waiting and, at the same time, the hospitals were full. If you needed elective surgery, you had to wait a year or two for your turn. There was no money for research as it was poured into socialized medicine. Research at the medical schools literally stopped, so the best doctors left Austria and emigrated to other countries.

    #6 Government Regulation

    Just like the Obama administration, the Nazis wanted to tightly regulate virtually everything in the economy.  Here is more from Kitty Werthmann

    My brother-in-law owned a restaurant that had square tables. Government officials told him he had to replace them with round tables because people might bump themselves on the corners. Then they said he had to have additional bathroom facilities. It was just a small dairy business with a snack bar. He couldn’t meet all the demands. Soon, he went out of business.

     

    If the government owned the large businesses and not many small ones existed, it could be in control.

     

    We had consumer protection. We were told how to shop and what to buy. Free enterprise was essentially abolished. We had a planning agency specially designed for farmers. The agents would go to the farms, count the live-stock, then tell the farmers what to produce, and how to produce it.

    #7 Gun Control

    The Nazis believed in having a very strong military, but they were also obsessed with taking the guns away from the general population.  According to Kitty Werthmann, the first step was gun registration, and once the government knew where all the guns were it was very easy to round all of them up…

    Next came gun registration. People were getting injured by guns. Hitler said that the real way to catch criminals (we still had a few) was by matching serial numbers on guns. Most citizens were law abiding and dutifully marched to the police station to register their firearms. Not long after-wards, the police said that it was best for everyone to turn in their guns. The authorities already knew who had them, so it was futile not to comply voluntarily.

    #8 Spying

    The Nazi secret police, also known as the Gestapo, became world famous for their brutal tactics.  The Nazis wanted to know everything about everybody, and anyone that was deemed to be “anti-government” was dealt with mercilessly.

    Unfortunately, we are moving in the exact same direction in the United States today.  We spy on our enemies, but we also spy on our friends.  Control freaks working for the government are systematically watching us, tracking us, recording our phone calls and monitoring our emails.  At this point, government snooping has become so pervasive that 64 percent of all reporters believe that the government is spying on them.

    #9 Pushing The Christian Faith Out Of Public Life

    In this day and age, it has become “American” to remove every trace of the Christian faith from public life.  We don’t want God in our government, in our schools, in our parks or in our businesses.  Many people may not realize this, but the Nazis were the exact same way.  The following information originally comes from Bruce Walker, the author of “The Swastika Against the Cross: The Nazi War on Christianity“…

    The Nazi tract Gott und Volk was distributed in 1941, and it describes the life cycle of German youth in the future, who would:  “With parties and gifts the youth will be led painlessly from one faith to the other and will grow up without ever having heard of the Sermon on the Mount or the Golden Rule, to say nothing of the Ten Commandments… The education of the youth is to be confined primarily by the teacher, the officer, and the leaders of the party.  The priests will die out.  They have estranged the youth from the Volk.  Into their places will step the leaders.  Not deputies of God.  But anyway the best Germans.  And how shall we train our children?  Thus, as though they had never heard of Christianity!

    And just like Nazi Germany, our end will be exceedingly terrible.

    You see, the truth is that all evil regimes eventually fall, and America is headed for a day of reckoning.

    Even now, our enemies are preparing weapons which could potentially destroy us in a single day.  For example, just check out what Russia is building

    The “Satan 2″ missile is rumoured to be the most powerful ever designed and is equipped with stealth technology to help it dodge enemy radar systems .

     

    This terrifying doomsday weapon is likely to strike fear into the hearts of Western military chiefs, as current missile defence technology is totally incapable of stopping it.

    It is being reported that the warheads from a single Satan 2 missile could destroy a state the size of Texas or a country the size of France.

    Whether it is nuclear oblivion or something else, if we continue to behave like the Nazis it is just a matter of time before America is destroyed.

    Let us hope and pray that this country wakes up while there is still time to do so.

  • Judge Jeanine Goes Nuclear On Hillary: "The American People Have To Stop Her"

    Having previously warned "an insurrection is coming," and that the establishment's "scorn for the will of the American people is mind-boggling," FOX News Judge Jeaninethe only media peronality who correctly predcted trump's ascent due to his position as a colective middle finger to the status quo – unleashed another tirade of reality checks for the establishment – this time aimed at Democrats…

    “Hillary Clinton cannot be President of the United States, and if the establishment, including law enforcement, does not stop her – you have to,” Judge Jeanine Pirro said in her opening statement on Justice.

     

    This is not about politics, she urged. “It’s about preventing people who have no regard for the law, or you, for that matter, from running this country.”

     

    Despite this election season’s anti-establishment sentiment, “Clinton is still in line to be coronated the Democratic nominee,” Judge Jeanine said.

     

    But what is it that makes Clinton above the law? she questioned.

     

    “The majority of Americans believe, and are right, that Hillary Clinton is untrustworthy, dishonest and a liar,” said Pirro.

     

    "And don't give me that woman thing where it's time for a female president.  Yeah, it is – but not her.”

     

    Of all the Washington politicians who “walk into those hallowed chambers and proceed to line their pockets and their pensions and their campaign reelection coffers and walk out multi-millionaires, the Clintons are among the worst,” Judge Jeanine added.

     

    “If the establishment is not willing to admit that no one is above the law and is not willing to garner justice, then ordinary Americans need to make sure the scales of justice are level for all of us.”

    Full opening statement…

    Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

     

    Full Transcript…

    Hello, and welcome to Justice. I'm Judge Jeanine Pirro. Thanks for being with us tonight.

    Hillary Clinton cannot be President of the United States, and if the establishment including law enforcement does not stop her – you have to.

    This is not about politics. It's about you, your family, and this great nation. It’s about preventing people who have no regard for the law, or you, for that matter, from running this country.

    At a time when just about everybody is fed up with establishment politicians, when two outsiders are winning epic contests against preordained presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton is still in line to be coronated the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.

    How can the woman – who is under criminal investigation – who knows she's under criminal investigation, but lies to your face saying that she's not – continue on her path to the White House?

    The majority of Americans believe, and are right, that Hillary Clinton is untrustworthy, dishonest and a liar. Hillary has danced with federal prosecutors for most of her career. She knows how to conceal, delete and destroy evidence – remember those pesky missing Rose Law Firm files? Not to mention 30,000 deleted emails… She lies so much she doesn't know the difference between the truth and a lie, and, like most liars, can’t even keep her stories straight.

    Example:  this week – in response to Hillary's claim that the FBI was doing a security inquiry on her private homebrewed server, one by the way conducted reportedly by over 100 FBI agents, FBI director Jim Comey says: security inquiry? I don't know that term. We investigate crimes.  This is a law enforcement proceeding.

    Now I told you that three months ago:  now the cynics among you might say it's all political. But Jim Comey is appointed by Barack Obama. And is one of the most clearheaded, logical and honorable people in Washington – a trait somewhat foreign to that town.

    And don't give me that woman thing where it's time for a female president.  Yeah it is – but not her.

    What makes you think electing this woman who's spent most of her career riding her husband’s coat tails is necessarily a good thing? Doesn't it depend on the individual man or woman? For those of you who think a woman will help other women – consider this: the Clinton Foundation – an organization over which the Clintons have control – pays female employees 38 cents less per dollar than males. So much for that old pay inequality thing.

    Supporting women?  Hillary made her bones creating the attack team on all the women who said Bill engaged in sexual activity, ranging from harassment to affairs to worse. If these women are all liars, why was Paula Jones awarded $850,000 from the Clintons? And Monica Lewinsky's dress – if only that blue dress could talk.

    Which brings me to the Clinton Foundation, an alleged 501c3 not-for profit that I see as nothing more than a piggy bank for the Clintons, their friends and her presidential campaign.

    Just this week – it was reported that this wonderful charitable organization gave $2 million to Bill's blonde divorcee friend, designated the energizer by the Secret Service when she visited him at home in Chappaqua when Hillary was on the road.

    The report in The Wall Street Journal says money from the charity was actually given to a for-profit company partly owned by Ms. "Energizer". According to government watchdog groups, this may very well violate federal law. And consistent with past Clinton behavior, the destruction and/or removal of evidence begins.

    Shortly after the grant, Ms. Energizer's company was reportedly removed from the Clinton Global Initiative's website. I'm sure it was an oversight, like the moneys from countries to the foundation when Hillary was Secretary of State, over whom her department made decisions that benefited them.

    The Clintons have always been about the Clintons. Evidence: Benghazi.  She lied about the video when she knew it was Al-Qaeda to benefit her politically. But even that doesn't matter as much as knowing there are men waiting for help on a rooftop for eight hours when that assault on the consulate took place. Remember that 2008 3 am phone call she wants you to believe shows that she is ready to protect us? That's baloney. She had a chance to prove it and she proved just the opposite. That her political future was more important than American lives.

    And the woman has no shame claiming that the parents of Tyrone Woods and Shawn Smith are lying, not her, about what she said to them as their children’s bodies were brought into Andrews.  The woman has never been able to keep her stories straight.  From one Blackberry for convenience and then there were three, and then there were 30,000 emails destroyed – she engages in the destruction of evidence to protect herself, like those pesky lost Rose Law Firm emails.

    And they are in it together. Bill just last week saying that email thing is kind of like a speeding ticket. No, Bill, it's got nothing to do with speeding tickets. It's got to do with espionage, conspiracy, destruction of evidence, concealment and risking the secrets of this great nation for the world to see. Russia has admitted it's got 20,000 of her emails. Guccifer says that hacking her emails was one of the easiest things he'd ever done.

    So why do they get away with it? Why do they do things that if any of us – even a four-star general – does, would put us in jail? What is it about them that puts them above the law? I submit it is the people that are indebted to them, the people for whom the Clintons have done favors, the classic inside game.

    For years, Americans working two and three jobs to support their families have watched as Washington politicians elected to represent us walk into those hallowed chambers and proceed to line their pockets and their pensions and their campaign reelection coffers and walk out multi-millionaires. The Clintons are among the worst.

    If the establishment is not willing to admit that no one is above the law and is not willing to garner justice, then ordinary Americans need to make sure the scales of justice are level for all of us.

    And that's my open.

    *  *   *

    h/t @Raven_PA_

  • "Markets Have No Purpose Any More" Mark Spitznagel Warns "Biggest Collapse In History" Is Inevitable

    After making over $1 billion in one day last August, and warning that "the markets are overvalued to the tune of 50%," Mark Spitznagel knows a thing or two about managing tail risk.

    The outspoken practitioner of Austrian economic philosophy tells The FT, "Markets don't have a purpose any more – they just reflect whatever central planners want them to," confirming his fund-management partner, Nassim Taleb's perspective that "being protected from fragility in the financial system is a necessity rather than an option."

    "This is the greatest monetary experiment in history. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable."

    While some money managers are critical of a strategy that “sells fear,” The FT reports there are others who share Mr Spitznagel’s views that another reckoning is imminent.

    Among those who share his worldview is former US presidential candidate, Senator Rand Paul, and his father Ron Paul.

     

    The elder Paul wrote the introduction to Mr Spitznagel’s 2013 book, The Dao of Capital. “As one of the leading voices in the country on economic policy, Mark has been a key friend and ally, and I’m thankful for his always-ready advice,” Senator Paul told the FT. But most investors will be praying he is wrong.

    Universa started in January 2007 after its success during the financial crisis, when it reportedly gained about 100 per cent. The firm now protects about $6bn of investor money, backed by about $200m-$300m of capital (the firm declined to say exactly how much because of regulatory issues). Fees are paid on the nominal amount insured against calamity, rather than the capital invested.

    One of Universa’s claims to fame is its relationship with Nassim Taleb. This is Mr Taleb and Mr Spitznagel’s second endeavour together.

     

    “Mark and I have been studying extreme events and protecting portfolios from them together since the 90s,” Mr Taleb told the FT.

     

    “People are finally discovering that being protected from fragility in the financial system is a necessity rather than an option.”

    The libertarian hedge fund manager sees a close similarity between what he is trying to achieve at Idyll Farms — which he built in 2010 with winnings from the financial crisis — and his investment strategy and deeply-held Austrian economic philosophy.

    “It’s all about sustainable use of resources. Modern farming has completely broken down the traditional system of agriculture. It’s become a machine. We’ve manipulated away its natural productivity and robustness, just like what we’ve done with markets,” he says.

     

    “Markets don’t have a purpose any more — they just reflect whatever central planners want them to.”

    Read more here…

  • "They Are Scared To Death" – CEO Explains The Single Biggest Reason Why People Are Buying Precious Metals

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    We can talk about technical charts, supply and demand fundamentals, and price manipulation, all of which point to significant increases in the value of gold and silver for the foreseeable future.

    But according to Golden Arrow Resources CEO Joseph Grosso, who is credited with the discovery of the largest silver deposit in history, the single biggest reason that retail investors, institutional players and governments around the world are gobbling up physical precious metals, resource stocks and ETF’s at unprecedented levels is that they are scared to death of the state of the global economy and where it will go next.

    Like an expecting father waiting for five years to see a baby being born, we are at the inception of a mining economy… There is a pause, a slight pause towards the U.S. dollar and that pause is allowing the oldest currency in the world, gold and silver [to rise] and that is now in favor.

     

    …Because there is fear. When there is fear, that’s when gold does best.

     

    … Right now, this is a scary time… People want to hop out [of traditional assets] and find safety in precious metals. 

    In the following interview with SGT Report the level-headed Grosso explains that there is still hope for America and the U.S. economy, but there will be a lot of pain before it gets better, the consequence of which is an environment that has historically boded well for precious metals as safe haven assets.


    (Watch at Youtube)

    SGT Report: There is a web bot project out there that mines the internet for data… and the data mined by the web bot project suggests that some time in the future, because of worldwide monetary chaos, we will eventually see silver return to a 10-to-1 or 8-to-1 ratio… Right now the silver-to-gold ratio is hovering somewhere around 70-to-1… And you know as well as anyone, because you mine the stuff, silver is found in the earth’s crust much closer to a 10-to-1 ratio…

     

    Joe Grosso: What you’re saying is really what dreams are made of… I remember a time when silver was somewhere around 40-to-1 and then it gravitated to 80-to-1.

     

    So I do feel that there is a catch up for silver to come into a more humane ratio between the two, but it is of course the biggest dream that we will have a ratio of 10-to-1… this would make the silver price worth about $130 per ounce [at current gold price].

     

    We’d like to see a return in the next three to five years where a lot of mines had to shut down and they can re-open again. Unfortunately for some, they have been liquidating assets… and out of the spoils we are now looking at acquiring or merging ourselves.

     

     

    Silver… we’re glad to be in silver because it has two uses. One, as a precious metal. And second, almost 50% of the silver produced in the world is used for industrial use.

    As Joe Grosso notes, mining companies have been pummeled over the last five years, leaving many to be either completely liquidated, or pausing operations until such time that prices eventually rise as a result of either core supply and demand fundamentals, or outright panic buying during economic crisis.

    But unlike most proponents of a rising silver price, Grosso brings a unique perspective to the conversation, because he doesn’t necessarily see Venezuela-style meltdown, hyperinflation and chaos coming to the United States:

    I am firmly of the belief that Venezuela will not happen in America… I think the American people have been tried [historically]… It’s happened before and America came out of it… It will happen again and America will come out of it… It’s a tough time… The administration will be under a lot of pressure…

     

    But you do have what it takes. You have a fully developed economy which has been going for years… The comparison is pale in my estimation… The United States is in a much better position to recover.

     

    I think that America will come out of it.

     

    America is America.

     

    … I really feel that we need to be grown up enough to know that in order to cure any illness, you need a bitter medicine. The more powerful the medicine, the quicker we will return to normality.

     

    And America, I feel, will know that. You have the intelligence to know that. Not everything is only up and up and up and up.

     

    It needs to be dealt with, with stronger resolve. And I am sure your country will understand that the tough things that are to come is the medicine that is going to resolve the problem.

     

    But if you don’t take it, you don’t resolve it. 

    The American people do, indeed, understand that the system is broken as evidenced by the rise of extremely popular anti-establishment political candidates on both sides of the aisle.

    It appears that, at least on some level, the people are willing to take the medicine.

    But whether the governing bodies dispense it is a whole nother matter.

    Failure to do so, says Grasso, means that things will only get worse.

    If and when things get worse, panicked and concerned citizens the world over will continue to shift capital into assets like gold and silver, which will be the only currencies left standing when it really hits the fan.

  • "If The Whole Country Looked Like Alabama, Donald Trump Would Be Fine"

    After the 2012 election, in which Barack Obama won 71 percent of the Hispanic vote, the Republican National Committee found it necessary to conduct an in depth study of the loss, dubbing it the "most comprehensive post-election review" ever undertaken."

    The result of the study concluded that… wait for it…the GOP needed to do much more to reach Hispanics if it hoped to win the White House someday.

    As fate would have it, "someday" is now here, and as The Hill reports, Donald Trump will have to overcome the most diverse electorate in history, lead by a drop in white voters, and increases in Hispanic, black, and Asian voters.

    As recently as the 2000 election, won by Republican George W. Bush, 81 percent of voters were white, 10 percent black and just seven percent Hispanic.

     
    By 2012, when President Obama won his second term, the white vote-share was down 9 points, to 72 percent. Blacks cast 13 percent of the total ballots and Hispanics 10 percent.

     
    Some experts believe the white vote-share could drop below 70 percent in November.

     

    “The America electorate as a whole is increasingly diverse, and I think you will see increases not only in the numbers of Hispanic and black voters, but among Asian voters as well. And you’ll see the lowest share of the white Anglo vote,” said Fernand Amandi of Bendixen & Amandi, a consulting firm that specializes in work with the Hispanic community.

    Indeed a GOP candidate who has built his candidacy based on building a giant wall between the US and Mexico will have a bit of an issue to overcome as 2016 shapes up to present the candidates with the challenge of having to win over the most diverse electorate ever. "If the whole country looked like Alabama, Donald Trump would be fine. But that is not the case" Said Republican Strategist Dan Judy.

    Pew Research notes that since 2012 about 12 times as many adult white citizens as adult Hispanic citizens have died, despite the overall white adult population only being six times as big as the Hispanic population. Pew also counts a net increase of about 7.5 million eligible voters whio are members of ethnic minorities since 2012, and among whites that number is just 3.2 million.

    One big assumption of course is that the minorities show up to vote on election day, but if that is the case then it could very well be an incredibly long day for Trump. In a Latino decisions poll released late last month, Trump was viewed unfavorably by 87 percent of Hispanics and favorably by just 9 percent.

    Acknowledging that Trump is in for a rough time if the minorities do show up to the polls, chairman of the Texas Federation of Hispanic Republicans Artemio Muniz says "He has got to show that he is a leader. He can't demagogue the issue."

    A study last summer from David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report looked at the likely make-up of the electorate in 2016 compared to 2012, and if Wasserman used a model assuming the same levels of support as President Obama and GOP nominee Romney received from five groups: college-educated whites, non-college educated whites, blacks, Hispanics, and "Asians/Others", the result would be stunning. Democrats would increase their vote in all 15 of the potential battleground states where Wasserman focused.

    The suggestion from that model, as The Hill points out, is that The Donald really needs to increase the white voter turnout to win.

    While we certainly don't downplay the demographic challenges that Trump faces, the lesson learned from the Trump campaign thus far is that Trump has always seemed to manage and surprise critics and "experts" almost always to the upside. Trump has a staying power that has been downplayed throughout the entire campaign, and without a doubt it will be downplayed once again as The Donald takes on Hillary in the fall – assuming Clinton isn't charged with any crimes prior to the election of course.

    In the meantime, Trump will no doubt continue to charm voters, and piss off all the pundits.

  • Analyst Warns Deutsche Bank's Problems May Now Be "Insurmountable"

    Call it some no holds barred German bank on German bank action.

    After a tumultous start to a year that Germany’s largest, and judging by the tens of billions in legal settlements and charges also its most criminal bank, Deutsche Bank, would love to forget, things got worse over the weekend when a note issued by another German bank said that either Deutsche will have to massively dilute its shareholders as a result of “insurmountable” debt, or a fate far worse could await the Frankfurt-based lender.

    Berenberg analyst James Chappell pulled no punches and spoke in uncharacteristically frank terms, traditionally reserves for the fringe media, when he said that “facing an illiquid credit market limiting Deutsche Bank’s (DBK) ability to delever and with core profitability impaired, it is hard to see how DBK can escape this vicious circle without raising more capital. The CEO has eschewed this route for now, in the hope that self-help can break this loop, but with risk being re-priced again it is hard to see DBK succeeding.” Chappell then broke the cardinal rule of sellside analysts: never issue a Sell rating on a fellow bank. “We downgrade to Sell and cut our price target to EUR9.00.

    According to Chappell, the biggest problem, of which DB has many, is that it simply has too much leverage, some 40x to be precise, something we have warned about since 2013. To wit:

    Too many problems still: The biggest problem is that DBK has too much leverage. On our measures, we believe DBK is still over 40x levered. DBK can either reduce assets or increase capital to rectify this. On the first path, the markets do not exist in the size nor pricing to enable it to follow this route. Going down the second path also seems impossible at the moment, as the profitability of the core business is under pressure. Seeking outside capital is also likely to be difficult as management would likely find it hard to offer any type of return on new capital invested.

    In other words, DB may be frash out of options. But wait, there’s more bad news because as Berenberg adds, the entire “industry is in structural decline

    The difficulty in analysing investment banks from the outside is that it is hard to establish core profitability. In an industry in structural decline, investment bank management teams are also likely to face similar challenges. Each weak quarter is seemingly greeted with an excuse that it could have been better if not for the wrong type of volatility, client uncertainty or central bank intervention. Q1  2016 saw the absence of one-off profitable events that have protected revenues in the past. We have perhaps had the first glimpse of what core profitability in the investment banking industry really is (ROEs in the midsingle digits at best) and it could be even worse if the traditional seasonality occurs.

    Which brings us to his price target and Sell rating:

    Price target cut to EUR9.00: We look at DBK’s valuation in two ways. One is a sum-of-the-parts analysis on the basis of normal conditions returning. This would imply a price target of EUR15.00. The second is a leverage adjusted P/E using the sector average multiple of 10x. This implies a price target of EUR9.00, using tangible book value. Considering “normal” conditions are unlikely to return and risk is re-pricing, we use the latter.

    We applaud Chappell and only wish more of his peers had the guts to tell the truth and call it like it is.

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Today’s News 16th May 2016

  • "We're Going To Do It, F**k It" – Venezuela's Maduro Orders Military Exercises For Next Weekend

    Over the past several days, things in Venezuela have not only taken a palpable turn for the worse, but now seem to be moving at an accelerating pace toward the inevitable endgame for the Maduro regime and whatever happens next.

    As we reported on Friday night, following dramatic scenes of violence in the streets, things escalated when some 5,000 starving locals looted a supermarket looking for food, leaving countless injured. The result was an immediate, if long overdue acknowledgement by US officials that “a crisis is coming” who added that Maduro “was not likely to be able to complete his term, which is due to end after elections in late 2018” implying that a coup is likely imminent.

    They said one “plausible” scenario would be that Maduro’s own party or powerful political figures would force him out and would not rule out the possibility of a military coup.

    An interview we presented with a member of the Venezuelan national guard confirmed as much when the anonymous guardsman said that “the situation in Venezuela has never been as bad as it is now. The breaking point is near, but still not at hand. My recommendation is for people to prepare, to look for food and then to store it. Obviously, when the implosion occurs , it won’t last long. I believe it will last something like 10 days, but they will be difficult days.”

     

    Indeed, all that is missing is the catalyst for a broad, if violent, popular upheaval against Maduro’s failing regime.

    That catalyst may have been revealed this weekend, when Venezuela’s opposition on Saturday slammed a state of emergency decreed by President Nicolas Maduro and vowed to press home efforts to remove the leftist leader this year amid a grim economic crisis.

    As we reported yesterday, Maduro on Friday night declared a 60-day state of emergency due to what he called plots from Venezuela and the United States to subvert him. He did not provide specifics. A recording of his increasingly angry rhetoric is shown below:

     

    As Reuters adds today, “the measure shows Maduro is panicking as a push for a recall referendum against him gains traction with tired, frustrated Venezuelans, opposition leaders said during a protest in Caracas.”

    We’re talking about a desperate president who is putting himself on the margin of legality and constitutionality,” said Democratic Unity coalition leader Jesus Torrealba, adding Maduro was losing support within his own bloc.

    If this state of emergency is issued without consulting the National Assembly, we would technically be talking about a self-coup,” he told hundreds of supporters who waved Venezuelan flags and chanted “he’s going to fall.”

    The people’s will was already made clear late last year when the opposition won control of the National Assembly in a December election, propelled by voter anger over product shortages, raging inflation that has annihilated salaries, and rampant violent crime, but the legislature has been routinely undercut by the Supreme Court. The lit fuse is therefore entirely in the hands of the increasingly more desperate people. Protests are on the rise and a key poll shows nearly 70% of Venezuelans now say Maduro must go this year.

    Maduro has vowed to see his term through, however, blasting opposition politicians as coup-mongering elitists seeking to emulate the impeachment of fellow leftist Dilma Rousseff in Brazil.

    Saying trouble-makers were fomenting violence to justify a foreign invasion, Maduro on Saturday hinted that a violent crackdown on enemies, both foreign and domestic, may be imminent when he ordered military exercises for next weekend.

    “We’re going to tell imperialism and the international right that the people are present, with their farm instruments in one hand and a gun in the other… to defend this sacred land,” he boomed at a rally. He added the government would take over idled factories, and in the process “radicalize the revolution:”

    “Comrades, I am ready to hand over to communal power the factories that some conservative big wigs in this country have stopped. An idled factory is a factory handed over to the people. We are going to do it, fuck it!

    Critics of Maduro, a former union leader and bus driver, say he should instead focus on people’s urgent needs.

    “There will be a social explosion if Maduro doesn’t let the recall referendum happen,” said protester Marisol Dos Santos, 34, an office worker at a supermarket where she says some 800 people queue up daily.But the opposition fear authorities are trying to delay a referendum until 2017, when the presidency would fall to the vice president, a post currently held by Socialist Party loyalist Aristobulo Isturiz.

    “If you block this democratic path we don’t know what might happen in this country,” two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles said at the demonstration.

    “Venezuela is a time bomb that can explode at any given moment.”

    Judging by the upcoming “military exercises”, that moment for the failed socialist nation may be as soon as next weekend. The only question is whether the military will support the increasingly unpopular president or if it will once again turn on the people as it has in recent weeks as shown in the video below of Venezuela police and anti-riot authorities cracking down with excessive force on protesters. Viewer discretion advised.

  • Who Rules The World? Part 1

    Authored by Noam Chomsky, originally posted at TomDispatch.com,

    [This piece, the first of two parts, is excerpted from Noam Chomsky’s new book, Who Rules the World? (Metropolitan Books).]

    When we ask “Who rules the world?” we commonly adopt the standard convention that the actors in world affairs are states, primarily the great powers, and we consider their decisions and the relations among them. That is not wrong. But we would do well to keep in mind that this level of abstraction can also be highly misleading.

    States of course have complex internal structures, and the choices and decisions of the political leadership are heavily influenced by internal concentrations of power, while the general population is often marginalized. That is true even for the more democratic societies, and obviously for others. We cannot gain a realistic understanding of who rules the world while ignoring the “masters of mankind,” as Adam Smith called them: in his day, the merchants and manufacturers of England; in ours, multinational conglomerates, huge financial institutions, retail empires, and the like. Still following Smith, it is also wise to attend to the “vile maxim” to which the “masters of mankind” are dedicated: “All for ourselves and nothing for other people” — a doctrine known otherwise as bitter and incessant class war, often one-sided, much to the detriment of the people of the home country and the world.

    In the contemporary global order, the institutions of the masters hold enormous power, not only in the international arena but also within their home states, on which they rely to protect their power and to provide economic support by a wide variety of means. When we consider the role of the masters of mankind, we turn to such state policy priorities of the moment as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, one of the investor-rights agreements mislabeled “free-trade agreements” in propaganda and commentary. They are negotiated in secret, apart from the hundreds of corporate lawyers and lobbyists writing the crucial details. The intention is to have them adopted in good Stalinist style with “fast track” procedures designed to block discussion and allow only the choice of yes or no (hence yes). The designers regularly do quite well, not surprisingly. People are incidental, with the consequences one might anticipate.

    The Second Superpower

    The neoliberal programs of the past generation have concentrated wealth and power in far fewer hands while undermining functioning democracy, but they have aroused opposition as well, most prominently in Latin America but also in the centers of global power. The European Union (EU), one of the more promising developments of the post-World War II period, has been tottering because of the harsh effect of the policies of austerity during recession, condemned even by the economists of the International Monetary Fund (if not the IMF’s political actors). Democracy has been undermined as decision making shifted to the Brussels bureaucracy, with the northern banks casting their shadow over their proceedings.

    Mainstream parties have been rapidly losing members to left and to right. The executive director of the Paris-based research group EuropaNova attributes the general disenchantment to “a mood of angry impotence as the real power to shape events largely shifted from national political leaders [who, in principle at least, are subject to democratic politics] to the market, the institutions of the European Union and corporations,” quite in accord with neoliberal doctrine. Very similar processes are under way in the United States, for somewhat similar reasons, a matter of significance and concern not just for the country but, because of U.S. power, for the world.

    The rising opposition to the neoliberal assault highlights another crucial aspect of the standard convention: it sets aside the public, which often fails to accept the approved role of “spectators” (rather than “participants”) assigned to it in liberal democratic theory. Such disobedience has always been of concern to the dominant classes. Just keeping to American history, George Washington regarded the common people who formed the militias that he was to command as “an exceedingly dirty and nasty people [evincing] an unaccountable kind of stupidity in the lower class of these people.”

    In Violent Politics, his masterful review of insurgencies from “the American insurgency” to contemporary Afghanistan and Iraq, William Polk concludes that General Washington “was so anxious to sideline [the fighters he despised] that he came close to losing the Revolution.” Indeed, he “might have actually done so” had France not massively intervened and “saved the Revolution,” which until then had been won by guerrillas — whom we would now call “terrorists” — while Washington’s British-style army “was defeated time after time and almost lost the war.”

    A common feature of successful insurgencies, Polk records, is that once popular support dissolves after victory, the leadership suppresses the “dirty and nasty people” who actually won the war with guerrilla tactics and terror, for fear that they might challenge class privilege. The elites’ contempt for “the lower class of these people” has taken various forms throughout the years. In recent times one expression of this contempt is the call for passivity and obedience (“moderation in democracy”) by liberal internationalists reacting to the dangerous democratizing effects of the popular movements of the 1960s.

    Sometimes states do choose to follow public opinion, eliciting much fury in centers of power. One dramatic case was in 2003, when the Bush administration called on Turkey to join its invasion of Iraq. Ninety-five percent of Turks opposed that course of action and, to the amazement and horror of Washington, the Turkish government adhered to their views. Turkey was bitterly condemned for this departure from responsible behavior. Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, designated by the press as the “idealist-in-chief” of the administration, berated the Turkish military for permitting the malfeasance of the government and demanded an apology. Unperturbed by these and innumerable other illustrations of our fabled “yearning for democracy,” respectable commentary continued to laud President George W. Bush for his dedication to “democracy promotion,” or sometimes criticized him for his naïveté in thinking that an outside power could impose its democratic yearnings on others.

    The Turkish public was not alone. Global opposition to U.S.-UK aggression was overwhelming. Support for Washington’s war plans scarcely reached 10% almost anywhere, according to international polls. Opposition sparked huge worldwide protests, in the United States as well, probably the first time in history that imperial aggression was strongly protested even before it was officially launched. On the front page of the New York Times, journalist Patrick Tyler reported that “there may still be two superpowers on the planet: the United States and world public opinion.”

    Unprecedented protest in the United States was a manifestation of the opposition to aggression that began decades earlier in the condemnation of the U.S. wars in Indochina, reaching a scale that was substantial and influential, even if far too late. By 1967, when the antiwar movement was becoming a significant force, military historian and Vietnam specialist Bernard Fall warned that “Vietnam as a cultural and historic entity… is threatened with extinction… [as] the countryside literally dies under the blows of the largest military machine ever unleashed on an area of this size.”

    But the antiwar movement did become a force that could not be ignored. Nor could it be ignored when Ronald Reagan came into office determined to launch an assault on Central America. His administration mimicked closely the steps John F. Kennedy had taken 20 years earlier in launching the war against South Vietnam, but had to back off because of the kind of vigorous public protest that had been lacking in the early 1960s. The assault was awful enough. The victims have yet to recover. But what happened to South Vietnam and later all of Indochina, where “the second superpower” imposed its impediments only much later in the conflict, was incomparably worse.

    It is often argued that the enormous public opposition to the invasion of Iraq had no effect. That seems incorrect to me. Again, the invasion was horrifying enough, and its aftermath is utterly grotesque. Nevertheless, it could have been far worse. Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and the rest of Bush’s top officials could never even contemplate the sort of measures that President Kennedy and President Lyndon Johnson adopted 40 years earlier largely without protest.

    Western Power Under Pressure

    There is far more to say, of course, about the factors in determining state policy that are put to the side when we adopt the standard convention that states are the actors in international affairs. But with such nontrivial caveats as these, let us nevertheless adopt the convention, at least as a first approximation to reality. Then the question of who rules the world leads at once to such concerns as China’s rise to power and its challenge to the United States and “world order,” the new cold war simmering in eastern Europe, the Global War on Terror, American hegemony and American decline, and a range of similar considerations.

    The challenges faced by Western power at the outset of 2016 are usefully summarized within the conventional framework by Gideon Rachman, chief foreign-affairs columnist for the London Financial Times. He begins by reviewing the Western picture of world order: “Ever since the end of the Cold War, the overwhelming power of the U.S. military has been the central fact of international politics.” This is particularly crucial in three regions: East Asia, where “the U.S. Navy has become used to treating the Pacific as an ‘American lake’”; Europe, where NATO — meaning the United States, which “accounts for a staggering three-quarters of NATO’s military spending” — “guarantees the territorial integrity of its member states”; and the Middle East, where giant U.S. naval and air bases “exist to reassure friends and to intimidate rivals.”

    The problem of world order today, Rachman continues, is that “these security orders are now under challenge in all three regions” because of Russian intervention in Ukraine and Syria, and because of China turning its nearby seas from an American lake to “clearly contested water.” The fundamental question of international relations, then, is whether the United States should “accept that other major powers should have some kind of zone of influence in their neighborhoods.” Rachman thinks it should, for reasons of “diffusion of economic power around the world — combined with simple common sense.”

    There are, to be sure, ways of looking at the world from different standpoints. But let us keep to these three regions, surely critically important ones.

    The Challenges Today: East Asia

    Beginning with the “American lake,” some eyebrows might be raised over the report in mid-December 2015 that “an American B-52 bomber on a routine mission over the South China Sea unintentionally flew within two nautical miles of an artificial island built by China, senior defense officials said, exacerbating a hotly divisive issue for Washington and Beijing.” Those familiar with the grim record of the 70 years of the nuclear weapons era will be all too aware that this is the kind of incident that has often come perilously close to igniting terminal nuclear war. One need not be a supporter of China’s provocative and aggressive actions in the South China Sea to notice that the incident did not involve a Chinese nuclear-capable bomber in the Caribbean, or off the coast of California, where China has no pretensions of establishing a “Chinese lake.” Luckily for the world.

    Chinese leaders understand very well that their country’s maritime trade routes are ringed with hostile powers from Japan through the Malacca Straits and beyond, backed by overwhelming U.S. military force. Accordingly, China is proceeding to expand westward with extensive investments and careful moves toward integration. In part, these developments are within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes the Central Asian states and Russia, and soon India and Pakistan with Iran as one of the observers — a status that was denied to the United States, which was also called on to close all military bases in the region. China is constructing a modernized version of the old silk roads, with the intent not only of integrating the region under Chinese influence, but also of reaching Europe and the Middle Eastern oil-producing regions. It is pouring huge sums into creating an integrated Asian energy and commercial system, with extensive high-speed rail lines and pipelines.

    One element of the program is a highway through some of the world’s tallest mountains to the new Chinese-developed port of Gwadar in Pakistan, which will protect oil shipments from potential U.S. interference. The program may also, China and Pakistan hope, spur industrial development in Pakistan, which the United States has not undertaken despite massive military aid, and might also provide an incentive for Pakistan to clamp down on domestic terrorism, a serious issue for China in western Xinjiang Province. Gwadar will be part of China’s “string of pearls,” bases being constructed in the Indian Ocean for commercial purposes but potentially also for military use, with the expectation that China might someday be able to project power as far as the Persian Gulf for the first time in the modern era.

    All of these moves remain immune to Washington’s overwhelming military power, short of annihilation by nuclear war, which would destroy the United States as well.

    In 2015, China also established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), with itself as the main shareholder. Fifty-six nations participated in the opening in Beijing in June, including U.S. allies Australia, Britain, and others which joined in defiance of Washington’s wishes. The United States and Japan were absent. Some analysts believe that the new bank might turn out to be a competitor to the Bretton Woods institutions (the IMF and the World Bank), in which the United States holds veto power. There are also some expectations that the SCO might eventually become a counterpart to NATO.

    The Challenges Today: Eastern Europe

    Turning to the second region, Eastern Europe, there is a crisis brewing at the NATO-Russian border. It is no small matter. In his illuminating and judicious scholarly study of the region, Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands, Richard Sakwa writes — all too plausibly — that the “Russo-Georgian war of August 2008 was in effect the first of the ‘wars to stop NATO enlargement’; the Ukraine crisis of 2014 is the second. It is not clear whether humanity would survive a third.”

    The West sees NATO enlargement as benign. Not surprisingly, Russia, along with much of the Global South, has a different opinion, as do some prominent Western voices. George Kennan warned early on that NATO enlargement is a “tragic mistake,” and he was joined by senior American statesmen in an open letter to the White House describing it as a “policy error of historic proportions.”

    The present crisis has its origins in 1991, with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. There were then two contrasting visions of a new security system and political economy in Eurasia. In Sakwa’s words, one vision was of a “‘Wider Europe,’ with the EU at its heart but increasingly coterminous with the Euro-Atlantic security and political community; and on the other side there [was] the idea of ‘Greater Europe,’ a vision of a continental Europe, stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok, that has multiple centers, including Brussels, Moscow and Ankara, but with a common purpose in overcoming the divisions that have traditionally plagued the continent.”

    Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was the major proponent of Greater Europe, a concept that also had European roots in Gaullism and other initiatives. However, as Russia collapsed under the devastating market reforms of the 1990s, the vision faded, only to be renewed as Russia began to recover and seek a place on the world stage under Vladimir Putin who, along with his associate Dmitry Medvedev, has repeatedly “called for the geopolitical unification of all of ‘Greater Europe’ from Lisbon to Vladivostok, to create a genuine ‘strategic partnership.’”

    These initiatives were “greeted with polite contempt,” Sakwa writes, regarded as “little more than a cover for the establishment of a ‘Greater Russia’ by stealth” and an effort to “drive a wedge” between North America and Western Europe. Such concerns trace back to earlier Cold War fears that Europe might become a “third force” independent of both the great and minor superpowers and moving toward closer links to the latter (as can be seen in Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik and other initiatives).

    The Western response to Russia’s collapse was triumphalist. It was hailed as signaling “the end of history,” the final victory of Western capitalist democracy, almost as if Russia were being instructed to revert to its pre-World War I status as a virtual economic colony of the West. NATO enlargement began at once, in violation of verbal assurances to Gorbachev that NATO forces would not move “one inch to the east” after he agreed that a unified Germany could become a NATO member — a remarkable concession, in the light of history. That discussion kept to East Germany. The possibility that NATO might expand beyond Germany was not discussed with Gorbachev, even if privately considered.

    Soon, NATO did begin to move beyond, right to the borders of Russia. The general mission of NATO was officially changed to a mandate to protect “crucial infrastructure” of the global energy system, sea lanes and pipelines, giving it a global area of operations. Furthermore, under a crucial Western revision of the now widely heralded doctrine of “responsibility to protect,” sharply different from the official U.N. version, NATO may now also serve as an intervention force under U.S. command.

    Of particular concern to Russia are plans to expand NATO to Ukraine. These plans were articulated explicitly at the Bucharest NATO summit of April 2008, when Georgia and Ukraine were promised eventual membership in NATO. The wording was unambiguous: “NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.” With the “Orange Revolution” victory of pro-Western candidates in Ukraine in 2004, State Department representative Daniel Fried rushed there and “emphasized U.S. support for Ukraine’s NATO and Euro-Atlantic aspirations,” as a WikiLeaks report revealed.

    Russia’s concerns are easily understandable. They are outlined by international relations scholar John Mearsheimer in the leading U.S. establishment journal, Foreign Affairs. He writes that “the taproot of the current crisis [over Ukraine] is NATO expansion and Washington’s commitment to move Ukraine out of Moscow’s orbit and integrate it into the West,” which Putin viewed as “a direct threat to Russia’s core interests.”

    “Who can blame him?” Mearsheimer asks, pointing out that “Washington may not like Moscow’s position, but it should understand the logic behind it.” That should not be too difficult. After all, as everyone knows, “The United States does not tolerate distant great powers deploying military forces anywhere in the Western hemisphere, much less on its borders.”

    In fact, the U.S. stand is far stronger. It does not tolerate what is officially called “successful defiance” of the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, which declared (but could not yet implement) U.S. control of the hemisphere. And a small country that carries out such successful defiance may be subjected to “the terrors of the earth” and a crushing embargo — as happened to Cuba. We need not ask how the United States would have reacted had the countries of Latin America joined the Warsaw Pact, with plans for Mexico and Canada to join as well. The merest hint of the first tentative steps in that direction would have been “terminated with extreme prejudice,” to adopt CIA lingo.

    As in the case of China, one does not have to regard Putin’s moves and motives favorably to understand the logic behind them, nor to grasp the importance of understanding that logic instead of issuing imprecations against it. As in the case of China, a great deal is at stake, reaching as far — literally — as questions of survival.

    The Challenges Today: The Islamic World

    Let us turn to the third region of major concern, the (largely) Islamic world, also the scene of the Global War on Terror (GWOT) that George W. Bush declared in 2001 after the 9/11 terrorist attack. To be more accurate, re-declared. The GWOT was declared by the Reagan administration when it took office, with fevered rhetoric about a “plague spread by depraved opponents of civilization itself” (as Reagan put it) and a “return to barbarism in the modern age” (the words of George Shultz, his secretary of state). The original GWOT has been quietly removed from history. It very quickly turned into a murderous and destructive terrorist war afflicting Central America, southern Africa, and the Middle East, with grim repercussions to the present, even leading to condemnation of the United States by the World Court (which Washington dismissed). In any event, it is not the right story for history, so it is gone.

    The success of the Bush-Obama version of GWOT can readily be evaluated on direct inspection. When the war was declared, the terrorist targets were confined to a small corner of tribal Afghanistan. They were protected by Afghans, who mostly disliked or despised them, under the tribal code of hospitality — which baffled Americans when poor peasants refused “to turn over Osama bin Laden for the, to them, astronomical sum of $25 million.”

    There are good reasons to believe that a well-constructed police action, or even serious diplomatic negotiations with the Taliban, might have placed those suspected of the 9/11 crimes in American hands for trial and sentencing. But such options were off the table. Instead, the reflexive choice was large-scale violence — not with the goal of overthrowing the Taliban (that came later) but to make clear U.S. contempt for tentative Taliban offers of the possible extradition of bin Laden. How serious these offers were we do not know, since the possibility of exploring them was never entertained. Or perhaps the United States was just intent on “trying to show its muscle, score a victory and scare everyone in the world. They don’t care about the suffering of the Afghans or how many people we will lose.”

    That was the judgment of the highly respected anti-Taliban leader Abdul Haq, one of the many oppositionists who condemned the American bombing campaign launched in October 2001 as "a big setback" for their efforts to overthrow the Taliban from within, a goal they considered within their reach. His judgment is confirmed by Richard A. Clarke, who was chairman of the Counterterrorism Security Group at the White House under President George W. Bush when the plans to attack Afghanistan were made. As Clarke describes the meeting, when informed that the attack would violate international law, "the President yelled in the narrow conference room, ‘I don’t care what the international lawyers say, we are going to kick some ass.'" The attack was also bitterly opposed by the major aid organizations working in Afghanistan, who warned that millions were on the verge of starvation and that the consequences might be horrendous.

    The consequences for poor Afghanistan years later need hardly be reviewed.

    The next target of the sledgehammer was Iraq. The U.S.-UK invasion, utterly without credible pretext, is the major crime of the twenty-first century. The invasion led to the death of hundreds of thousands of people in a country where the civilian society had already been devastated by American and British sanctions that were regarded as “genocidal” by the two distinguished international diplomats who administered them, and resigned in protest for this reason. The invasion also generated millions of refugees, largely destroyed the country, and instigated a sectarian conflict that is now tearing apart Iraq and the entire region. It is an astonishing fact about our intellectual and moral culture that in informed and enlightened circles it can be called, blandly, “the liberation of Iraq.”

    Pentagon and British Ministry of Defense polls found that only 3% of Iraqis regarded the U.S. security role in their neighborhood as legitimate, less than 1% believed that “coalition” (U.S.-UK) forces were good for their security, 80% opposed the presence of coalition forces in the country, and a majority supported attacks on coalition troops. Afghanistan has been destroyed beyond the possibility of reliable polling, but there are indications that something similar may be true there as well. Particularly in Iraq the United States suffered a severe defeat, abandoning its official war aims, and leaving the country under the influence of the sole victor, Iran.

    The sledgehammer was also wielded elsewhere, notably in Libya, where the three traditional imperial powers (Britain, France, and the United States) procured Security Council resolution 1973 and instantly violated it, becoming the air force of the rebels. The effect was to undercut the possibility of a peaceful, negotiated settlement; sharply increase casualties (by at least a factor of 10, according to political scientist Alan Kuperman); leave Libya in ruins, in the hands of warring militias; and, more recently, to provide the Islamic State with a base that it can use to spread terror beyond. Quite sensible diplomatic proposals by the African Union, accepted in principle by Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi, were ignored by the imperial triumvirate, as Africa specialist Alex de Waal reviews. A huge flow of weapons and jihadis has spread terror and violence from West Africa (now the champion for terrorist murders) to the Levant, while the NATO attack also sent a flood of refugees from Africa to Europe.

    Yet another triumph of “humanitarian intervention,” and, as the long and often ghastly record reveals, not an unusual one, going back to its modern origins four centuries ago.

  • The GOP Finally Gets It: "People Just Don't Care, Trump Rewrote The Playbook"

    In a shocking moment of clarity, that should also send shivers up the spine of the Democratic party, Republican chairman (and implicity voice of 'the establishment') Reince Priebus admitted on various Sunday talk-shows that campaign traditions don't apply to the so-called Teflon Don noting that "the public just wasn't interested" in his taxes or the various 'stories' that the Deep State is throwing at him. "I don't think the traditional playbook applies.. We've been down this road for a year. And it doesn't apply," Priebus exclaimed, and why the Clinton campaign is likely scrambling, "He's rewritten the playbook."

    Summing up the reality of the current situation – with attacks coming at presumotive GOP nominee Trump from all sides – NBC News reports that Priebus said…

    "I've got to tell you, I think that all these stories that come out – and they come out every couple weeks – people just don't care."

    Voters, Trump told ABC's George Stephanopoulos Friday morning, are not entitled to review his returns before heading to the polls, and the tax rate he pays is "none of your business." Elsewhere, Trump insisted that not only was there nothing to learn from his taxes, but that the public wasn't interested.

    When asked if that meant Trump doesn't have to release his tax returns, Priebus said that would be up to the American people.

     

    "They're going to have to decide whether that's a big issue or not," Priebus said.

     

    Speaking with Fox News Sunday, Priebus said that voters just want an "earthquake" when host Chris Wallace asked if reports of Trump repeatedly mistreating women bothered him.

    The RNC chair argued that voters aren't judging Trump based on his personal life or his past.

    "I think people are judging Donald Trump as to whether or not he's someone that's going to go to Washington and shake things up," Priebus said on ABC. "And that's why he's doing so well."

    And that is why Hillary will need every bit of help from Liberal-leaning newsfeeds, Clinton-connected reporters, and a Deep State desparate to maintain the status quo… no matter what.

  • Former Attorney General Holds Hillary Clinton Fundraiser Despite Ongoing FBI Criminal Probe

    Before he was quietly advised last year by his superior that the time to “quit” has finally come after a career filled with gaffe after gaffe, former US Attorney General Eric Holder was best known for not prosecuting big banks due to his concern they were “Too Big To Prosecute“, clearly ignoring the optics (and reality) that this would also makes it seem that when it comes to breaking the law, banks are more powerful than the United States itself.

    Fast forward one year, when the same Eric Holder, and former Attorney General, makes headlines of a different sort. As the Hill reports, Holder will headline a “lawyers for Hillary” fundraiser for Hillary Clinton on May 31.

    Available tickets for the fundraiser, which takes place May 31, range from $500 to $2,700, according to Clinton’s campaign website. “Young lawyer” tickets, priced at $250, were sold out as of early Sunday afternoon. Actress Julianna Margulies (who played a political spouse betrayed by her husband) will also attend the fundraiser.

    An invitation for the event posted on Hillaryclinton.com reads, “Please join Lawyers for Hillary and Eric H. Holder, Jr., 82nd Attorney General of the United States and Julianna Margulies for an evening with Hillary.”

     

    The surreal irony of it all hardly needs no explanation. This is how the Weekly Standard puts it: “the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton continues, but that isn’t stopping the former head of the Department of Justice from holding a fundraiser for the Democratic presidential candidate.

    As a reminder, the FBI – which is still probing Hillary – is part of the DOJ, which in turn is headed by Loretta Lynch. She got her first prominent public appointment in 1999 when she was nominated by President Bill Clinton to serve as the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York.

    We note all this just in case someone still believes that Hillary is not “Too Powerful To Prosecute.”

  • The Endgame

    Submitted by Alasdair Macloed via GoldMoney.com,

    There is a growing fear in financial and monetary circles that there is something deeply wrong with the global economy. Publicly, officials and practitioners alike have become confused by policy failures, and privately, occasionally even downright pessimistic, at a loss to see a statist solution. It is hardly exaggerating to say there is a growing feeling of impending doom.

    The reason this has happened is that today’s macro-economists are a failure on the one subject about which they profess to be experts: economics. Their policy recommendations have become the opposite from what logic and sound economic theory shows is the true path to economic progress. Progress is not even on their list of objectives, which fortunately for us all happens despite their interventions. The adaptability of humans in their actions has allowed progress to continue, despite all attempts to discredit markets, the clearing centres for the division of labour.

    Ill-founded beliefs in the magic of unsound money have been shattered on the altar of experience. Macro-economists are discovering that the failure of monetary and fiscal planning are becoming a policy cul-de-sac that has generated a legacy of unsustainable debt. Those of us aware of a gathering financial crisis are discovering that governments have tamed only the statistics and not what they represent.

    There is evidence that central bank intervention began to irrevocably distort markets from 1981, when Paul Volker raised interest rates to halt the slide in the dollar’s purchasing power. It was at that point the free market relationship between the price level and the cost of borrowing changed, evidenced by the failure of Gibson’s paradox. That was the point when central banks wrested control of prices from the market. This is explained more fully below.

    The errors have been multiple. In this article I explain how and why they have arisen. This knowledge is the necessary background for an understanding of how the financial and economic crisis that increasing numbers of us expect, is likely to develop, and what action we must take as individuals to protect ourselves.

    Markets versus governments

    The starting point for today’s errors is the belief that markets sometimes fail, and that monetary and/or fiscal policies can steer markets towards a better outcome. The modern incarnation of this myth started with JM Keynes, who by the mid-thirties believed he had enough cause to overturn Say’s law, or the law of the markets. So the roots of today’s crisis go deep, and originate long before Volcker’s interest rate hike in 1981.

    Say’s law states that we produce to consume. Therefore, production is bound tightly to consumption, including deferred consumption, otherwise known as savings. And if someone consumes without producing, someone else has to produce the wherewithal. The medium of exchange that translates wages and profits arising from production into consumption is money, so we can say without contradiction that money represents the temporary storage of the profit from production, or ordinary people’s labour. It is an iron law, which invites trouble for any attempt to stimulate consumption.

    There can be no net stimulation into the private sector economy by the state, because everything has to be paid for, one way or another. For simplicity, we will disregard cross-border government subsidies, such as foreign aid. When a government pays benefits to a group of individuals, it either borrows the money from someone else, or alternatively it creates the money out of thin air. In the latter case, the benefit payments are covered by the debasement of the existing money stock, which is a hidden tax on everyone else’s money. To argue otherwise, as do those who deny Say’s law, is a fallacy that relies on a concept of financial perpetual motion.

    Keynes’s motivation was partly driven by his belief in the honest intentions of democratic government, and as we can glean from his writings, his emotional dislike of savers, the usurious rentiers who rake in interest without soiling their hands through honest work. In his General Theory, the first major work after Keynes was confident he had dispatched Say’s law to oblivion, he expressed his hope for the gradual euthanasia of the rentier, and that capital would be increased by communal saving through the agency of the State, so that it would no longer be scarce. The term, rentier, is itself a put-down in English, suggesting usurious lending. Keynes hoped that entrepreneurs, “who are certainly so fond of their craft that their labour could be obtained much cheaper than at present”, would be harnessed to the service of the community on reasonable terms of reward.

    His General Theory is proof that Keynes despised markets, and did not understand prices (see Chapter 21). With his ignorance of this most fundamental element of economics and all the other half-truths that follow, the true purpose of this propaganda is revealed: the justification for state intervention and the end of free markets. It is a thoroughly bad book, yet it has become the bedrock of mainstream economics today, even for those who deny being Keynesians.

    Upon this unsound basis, layer upon layer of further untruths have been built. When an economist conjures up a course of action based on these fairy-tales, the honest critic is at a loss where to start, because the thread of errors leading to the economist’s judgement has become so long and convoluted. Few are prepared to listen to a lengthy critique on this matter, so it is far easier for the layman and politician alike to assume that a scion of Oxford and Harvard must know what he is talking about.

    It’s both the line of least resistance, and a cop-out. The language of modern economics takes us in so completely, we often don’t realise we ourselves perpetuate the mistakes. It is time for those who wish to understand the seriousness of these cumulative errors to draw a line, and to face up to them, because to not do so could be very expensive for those with assets to protect.

    The root of the problem is in a misunderstanding of the nature of economics itself, and in the application of modern analytics.

    The analytical mistake

    The misuse of statistical information is a great evil, which has become increasingly prevalent over the years, taking a great leap forward in its destructive force with the development of computers. Computers are a wonderful facility, but they have come to replace soundly reasoned theory by advancing the role of inappropriate statistics, and their supposed mathematical relationships.

    Mathematics is appropriate for the physical sciences, but wholly inappropriate for social sciences, such as economics. Maths has an important role in business: there is an essential role in book-keeping as a means of measuring any enterprise’s progress. But it is another thing entirely to attempt to banish the uncertainties inherent in future human action by mathematical means. A businessman who fails to distinguish between mathematics as an accounting tool and its lack of predictive value will not remain in business for long. Yet there is no limitation, seemingly, on the employment of mathematics in the less certain world of a national economy.

    The mistakes, while subtle, are at least threefold.

    Even if the capture of economic activity is total and correct at a past moment in time (which it never can be), it cannot be valid thereafter, because economic activity continually evolves. No economy statically churns on an unchanging basis. The information gathered by econometricians is not only incorrect thereafter, but it misleads state planners into believing they have the evidence to manage economic activity. Misused aggregates such as gross domestic product are just accounting identities, and not the measure of progress that so many believe.

    Statistics are continually amended to show monetary and fiscal policies in the best possible light. Price inflation and unemployment numbers have evolved to the point where they do not reflect reality, yet because they are issued by a government department, they retain credibility. The result is the statistics have themselves been tamed, not what they represent.

    Meaningless averages are routinely invoked as evidence to support state intervention and planning. Thus, the CPI’s “basket of goods”, and an “average wage” are not connected to reality and conceal the fact that economic actors are individuals with diverse needs and wants. Averages should not be used as analytical tools upon which to base monetary and fiscal policy.

    It was George Canning, nearly two centuries ago, who said he could prove anything with statistics, except the truth. The attraction statistics confers for the slow-witted analyst is they avoid him having to apply original thought. It means he or she never feels the need to consider the underlying motivations of economic actors.

    A good example of this error is contained in the Barsky and Summers attempt, published in The Journal of Political Economy in 1988, to explain Gibson’s paradox . Gibson’s paradox is the observed correlation between the price level and wholesale borrowing costs, and the lack of correlation between borrowing costs and the rate of inflation. The relationship came to an end in the late seventies in the UK, where it was statistically observed from 1730 onwards. Barsky & Summers incorrectly assumed it was a phenomenon of the gold standard, and then used a mathematical model of their devising to arrive at a partial conclusion, which they admitted would require further research. In other words, their method led them into a blind alley.

    To be fair to Barsky and Summers, they are not the only high-flying economists who have failed to explain Gibson’s paradox. It was so named by Keynes after an earlier economist, and he also failed to resolve it. The evidence was plain and simple, but being unresolved Keynes simply dismissed it and its important implications as well. Milton Friedman also failed.

    By putting myself in the shoes of an entrepreneurial businessman looking to finance his production, I found the paradox was easy to resolve and explain. The businessman’s calculation is comprised of the difference between his costs of production and the selling price for his product. What does he know of the prospective selling price? He knows what similar items sell for in the current market, and it is that that sets the level of interest he is prepared to pay to finance his production. That is why interest rates correlated with the price level, and not the rate of inflation, for the two hundred years in the original study by Alfred Gibson.

    Unfortunately, this cuts across the cherished beliefs of monetary economists, who believe in the control of economic activity by managing interest rates and the expansion of the quantity of money and bank credit. For monetary policy to be valid, there must be a positive correlation between price inflation and interest rates, which Gibson’s paradox demonstrated was not true. I would also postulate that Keynes was not temperamentally inclined to understand the solution to Gibson’s paradox, because he cherished the belief that it is idle rentiers who demand usurious rates of interest and set them, not the borrower with his calculation of an investment return.

    This is why it is vital to understand the motivations of economic actors, and to not hide behind the sterile world of ivory-tower mathematics. But we have become so used to statistical modelling, that even some followers of Say’s law are subverted. The confusion of accounting identities such as GDP with the indeterminate concept of economic growth is a case in point. And many are the times we read the writings of economists, who take dodgy statistics, and use them as the basis for an equation between disparate elements to create a relationship where none actually exists. You cannot say apples are pears, but you can say they are different. You can turn apples equals pears into an equation, if you introduce a factor that always represents the difference between the two. Nonsense, of course, but this is what economists routinely do.

    A prime example is the fallacy of the velocity of money. The assumption is that a change in the quantity of money will change the level of prices. So, ?m~?p. But, it was found to the inconvenience of monetarists from David Ricardo onwards that prices p varied independently from the money quantity m, particularly in periods of less than an indeterminate long run. Therefore, the equation was modified to include another variable, dubbed the velocity of circulation to give it meaning, and it became the basis of Irving Fisher’s equation of exchange,

    M*V=P*Q

    where M is the total amount of money in circulation, V is its velocity of circulation, P is the price level, and Q is an index of final expenditures. Presented like this, we are drawn into believing that the concept of money going round and round the economy is a concept with meaning. It is not. It has no more meaning than the interposition of a variable to make an equation between apples and pears balance.

    Not once does the monetary economist stop to think that everything an individual makes from his production, besides a necessary cash float, is consumed, either today or at some time in the future. What matters is not the size of an individual’s cash balance, but the profit from his labour. That is the Say’s law relationship, denied by the monetarist.

    Ignorance in academic circles over price theory, which after all is the bedrock of economics, is staggering. It is as if Carl Menger, who convincingly proved the full subjectivity of prices back in the 1870s, never existed. This is despite the fact that for all of us the exchange of the fruits of our labour, in the form of money, for the things we individually decide we want, is our most important daily activity.

    We also ignore the fact that there are two variables in any price, changes that emanate from the goods or services being exchanged, and that of money itself. We are all aware of changes that emanate from goods and services. But few of us are aware that changes can also emanate from the money side as well. There is a reason for this. The role of money, traditionally sound money, is for it to be taken for granted. It allows us to value diverse products, and to account for our own production. It acts as the objective exchange value in a transaction. However, the purchasing power of money is never a constant and continually varies, the more so when it is unsound. So, the default assumption that all price moves come from the goods and services being bought and sold, is incorrect.

    In the old days of sound money, when gold was freely exchangeable for paper currency, price movement from the currency side was fairly minor, even over prolonged periods of time. But in today’s paradigm of fiat monetary debasement, the movement can be considerable. Consider a situation where personal preferences for holding currency a shift towards zero. The price of a good which does not move when measured in a stable currency b, will shift so that the price measured in currency a tends towards infinity. We recognise this phenomenon when talking about Zimbabwean dollars, or Venezuelan bolivars, but our minds refuse to admit to the same dynamics operating for the dollar and the other major currencies used by advanced westerners.

    Changing values for the currency may not be noticed much day-to-day, but they do interfere with annual comparisons, because the currency’s purchasing-power last year differs from this year’s. Neither does the law recognise any variance in a fiat currency’s purchasing power, a fact which central banks exploit to the full.

    Central banks print money, and they license the banks to loan credit into existence. By ignoring Say’s law, they think they can stimulate demand by cheapening and expanding credit. For a time, this trick fools people, but repeated often enough they begin to lose confidence in the currency and alter their preferences against holding it, so its purchasing power declines.

    The rate at which an inflating currency’s purchasing power declines varies from product to product, depending where the increase is applied. Since the financial crisis of 2007/08, it has been obvious that prices of financial assets have seen the bulk of monetary inflation applied to them, and prices of bonds and other securities have risen accordingly. The prices of ordinary goods and services have risen considerably less, but it is arguable how much. The officially tamed CPI has consistently recorded price inflation to be well below the Fed’s target in recent years, yet independent calculations, such as the Chapwood Index, records price inflation at about 9%. We cannot take any of these averages too seriously for the reasons mentioned above, other than to observe that price rises on Main Street appear to be significantly higher than state-sponsored econometricians tell us.

    The monetary link between prices and the quantity of money is tenuous at best, and takes no account of intertemporal factors, such as where monetary expansion is initially applied. There is little attempt to understand the implications of changing preferences for money relative to goods. It is easy to see why not only the evidence, but also sound economic reasoning, warns us that modern macroeconomists, in their desire to do away with the law of the markets, have led us to the brink of financial ruin. What is surprising is economies have survived this persistent meddling based on inappropriate information for so long, but that is explained by the extraordinary capacity of human action to adjust to and accommodate government intervention.

    The Consequences

    The endgame is now shaping up. Central banks have progressively tightened their grip on markets since Paul Volcker took control of markets by jacking up interest rates in 1981. It was at about that time Gibson’s paradox failed. The result is that debt-driven activity, encouraged by falling nominal interest rates, replaced the market-driven activity demonstrated by Gibson’s paradox over the previous 250 years.

    There are limits to excessive debt, and financial analysts are about to find out that the old adage, markets always win out in the end, is still true. The dominant market risk is over-valued government bonds, from which all other financial asset valuations flow. Therefore, a large enough rise in government bond yields is likely to create a systemic crisis in the banking system, which depends on these assets for loan collateral. The most vulnerable banks are in the Eurozone, where bond markets are at their most over-priced, and the banks most highly geared.

    When yields on government bonds rise above an as yet unknown level, central banks will have a decision to take. Are they prepared to support the entire financial system at the ultimate expense of their currencies, or do they preserve the currency? The choice has become that binary, and any fudging of this choice is unlikely to prolong the survival of the global financial system.

    When things have become this delicate, anything from Greece’s debt negotiations, Italian banking insolvencies, trouble in the physical gold market, or even just a bad statistic somewhere can act as a trigger. Brexit would certainly undermine European cohesion with potentially destabilising results, which doubtless is why all the great and the good are imploring the British electorate to vote to remain in. So far, central banks have been deferring all these problems successfully, so it will probably take something else to trigger the endgame.

    A likely culprit is the accumulating effect of monetary debasement on the finances of ordinary people. Monetary inflation transfers wealth from savers to debtors, debtors who then generally invest it inefficiently. Government spending, financed by high taxes, also destroys private wealth. Monetary inflation reduces the purchasing power of ordinary people’s wages as well, an effect which limits their ability to consume. Governments of advanced nations are simply running out of their citizens’ wealth.

    The transfer of wealth through monetary inflation is the unrecorded burden borne by the ordinary person. There is little doubt that it has affected the GDP number, which so far has shown disappointing growth in the majority of advanced nations. However, it has held up sufficiently to fool mathematical economists that there is no crisis, only disappointing growth. It bears repeating that GDP is only an accounting identity, which is increased by monetary inflation. Any offset by a price inflation deflator tends to lag the statistic, and given government desires to suppress recorded inflation, is calculated inadequately. Indeed, if one accepts that price inflation is actually far higher than that indicated by official measures of price inflation, adjusted GDP estimates in real terms have been contracting in most advanced nations ever since the financial crisis.

    The situation in Japan and the Eurozone is worse than in the US, and the destruction of private wealth has been more aggressive. The paradox is that temporarily, the yen and the euro are strong, but that is unlikely to last. The reason the yen and the euro are strong is that liquidity in the shadow banking system is being squeezed by central bank purchases of government bonds, leading to an increase in cash demand as positions financed in these currencies are unwound.

    The legacy of monetary and credit expansion since the financial crisis has actually led to a greater overall preference for holding money relative to buying goods. This is reflected in the increase in the level of bank deposits and checking accounts, the counterpart to the expansion of bank credit. In the US alone, bank deposits and checking accounts have increased from $2.33 trillion in July 2008, just before the Lehman collapse, to $10.17 trillion today, an increase of 336%, compared with an increase in official GDP of only 22% for the whole period.

    The accumulation of this money is in fickle hands, being for the most part financial. It is what used to be called hot money. Having pumped up these hot money totals, central banks have been trying to bottle them up as bank deposits, so that in aggregate, there is no escape route from zero and negative interest rates, and also in the hope that financial stability will be maintained during the implementation of further “extraordinary measures”.

    This raises a question, which no one appears to have seriously considered: what happens, when bank depositors stop increasing their preference for money relative to goods or assets, and begin to reduce it instead? The only outcome can be an unexpectedly sharp increase in the prices of whatever goods and assets the money is exchanged for, because sellers of currency will by far outweigh the buyers. In the past there has always been an escape route for investors from this problem, such as exchanging Argentinian pesos for dollars. This time it is the dollar itself, with all the other major currencies tied to it.

    It is already leading to a financial move into commodities and raw materials, which started last December. Some key commodities, most notably oil, have risen in price substantially as a result. Sellers of dollars so far have been foreign governments, particularly the Chinese, and speculative traders. But the conditions driving relative preferences against currencies seem set to accelerate. Core inflation in America is already above the Fed’s target, and almost certain to go higher, so unless the Fed starts to raise the Fed funds rate soon and significantly, the pace of the fall in purchasing power for the dollar will almost certainly increase. That binary choice, to save the system or the currency, is looming.

    Unfortunately, both the damage earlier monetary policies inflicted on the masses’ wealth, as well as the encouragement to the accumulation of unproductive debt by both private and public sectors, have between them eliminated the central banks’ room for manoeuvre. The introduction of a trend of rising interest rates, however moderate, will undermine overvalued bond markets, in turn triggering a new wave of debt liquidation by weaker borrowers. These are financial stresses that the Eurozone banks are particularly ill equipped to survive. They are so poorly capitalised and over-exposed to outrageously expensive Eurozone government bonds, it cannot be denied they are already an alarming systemic risk, even without a rise in interest rates.

    The difference between today’s impending financial crisis and the last one is that the last one drove the ordinary public away from the uncertainty of financial commitments into a preference for monetary liquidity. This time, low wage earners and small savers will probably react the same way, at least initially. But the wealthier savers and speculators now dominate the system. They have been accumulating deposits and checking account balances since 2008, and are exposed to bank counterparty risk, a point which they will quickly understand if things start sliding. Therefore, fiat currency held in the banking system is the one asset corporations, investors and the rich will most likely seek to ditch in the coming months. Their preferences will work against not only the dollar, but all other currencies as well.

    In short, growing evidence of price inflation and stagnant production can be expected to materially increase the risk of a global banking and currency meltdown. The best escape-route is ownership of anything other than purely financial assets and fiat currency deposits. No wonder the price of gold, which is the soundest of moneys, appears to have entered a new bull market.

  • Goldman Cuts 2017 Oil Price Forecast Due To Slower Market Rebalancing

    In yet another paradoxical move that will leave many scratching their heads, just days after throwing in the towel on its bullish dollar call (now that it expects far less rate hikes over the next year), Goldman moments ago announced that it is also cutting back on its longer-term oil price forecasts (which paradoxically are linked to a stronger dollar) for the coming year, as a result of a rebalancing that is taking far longer to take place than previously anticipated.

    This is how Goldman explains its bearish pivot on crude:

    The inflection phase of the oil market continues to deliver its share of surprises, with low prices driving disruptions in Nigeria, higher output in Iran and better demand. With each of these shifts significant in magnitude, the oil market has gone from nearing storage saturation to being in deficit much earlier than we expected and we are pulling forward our price forecast, with 2Q/2H16 WTI now $45/bbl and $50/bbl.

     

    However, we expect that the return of some of these outages as well as higher Iran and Iraq production will more than offset lingering issues in Nigeria and our higher demand forecast. As a result, we now forecast a more gradual decline in inventories in 2H than previously and a return into surplus in 1Q17, with low-cost production continuing to grow in the New Oil Order. This leads us to lower our 2017 forecast with prices in 1Q17 at $45/bbl and only reaching $60/bbl by 4Q17.

    We have repeatedly warned that the Saudi plan to put as many marginal shale producers out of business is badly flawed as it does not take into account the trillions in excess liquidity which central banks have flooded markets with, of which tens of billions ultimately make their way into the shale sector. Now it’s Goldman’s turn to repeat this same warning.

    … while the physical barrel rebalancing has started, the structural imbalance in the capital markets remains large, with $45 bn of equity and bond issuance taking place in the US this year. As a result, we believe that the industry still has further to adjust and our updated forecast maintains the same 2016-2017 price level that we previously believed was required to finally correct both the barrel and capital imbalances, and eventually take prices to $60/bbl.

    In other words, “lower for longer” because excess supply is taking far longer to clear out.

    That said, Goldman is not entirely bearish: while it admits that US and EU demand is set to falter, it is betting all on China, precisely the one country where the recent credit tsunami pushed teapot refiners into overdrive, and where the sudden elimination of massive credit creation will result in a sharp plunge in oil demand both for internal demand and for re-exporting into various other processed grades. This is where GS sees upside demand:

    Stronger vehicle sales, activity and a bigger harvest are leading us to raise our Indian and Russia demand forecasts for the year. And while we are reducing our US and EU forecasts on the combination of weaker activity and higher prices than previously assumed, we are raising our China demand forecasts to reflect the expected support from the recent transient stimulus. Net, our 2016 oil demand growth forecast is now 1.4 mb/d, up from 1.2 mb/d previously. Our bias for strong demand growth since October 2014 leaves us seeing risks to this forecast as skewed to the upside although lesser fuel and crude burn for power generation in Brazil, Japan and likely Saudi are large headwinds this year.

    Our forecast: three months from now Goldman will be revising its Chinese demand forecast sharply lower.

    Perhaps the most informative and value-added piece in the entire Goldman report is the following infographic showing the planned and unplanned production outages and disruptions in the past 4 months.

    Large supply disruptions have pushed production sharply lower since mid-March
    Key planned and unplanned outages since mid-February (kb/d)

    Its commentary:

    The recent roll-over in production is the result of somewhat offsetting cross currents. (1) Production has rolled over faster than we had expected in China, India and non-OPEC Africa more than offset upside surprises in the US and the North Sea. (2) Transient but recurring disruptions have more than offset larger than expected Iran and Iraq production. And while some of the disruptions will stop such as maintenance, fires and strikes, some are likely systemic, for example in Nigeria, and we now expect production there will remain curtailed for the remainder of the year. Net, this leaves us expecting a sharp decline in 2Q output.

    In 2Q sure, but what about after? Well, as a result of the death of OPEC whose every single (now former) member is pumping at or near record amounts as all excess supply considerations have been tossed out of the Saudi window, it is here that things are about to get very interesting, and as the chart below shows, diagonal. To wit:

    This expectation for a return into surplus in 1Q17 is not dependent on a sharp price recovery beyond the $45-$55/bbl trading range that we now expect in 2016. First, it reflects our view that low-cost producers will continue to drive production growth in the New Oil Order – with growth driven by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, the UAE and Russia. Second, non-OPEC producers had mostly budgeted such price levels and there remains a pipeline of already sanctioned non-OPEC projects. In fact, we see risks to our production forecasts as skewed to the upside as we remain conservative on Saudi’s ineluctable ramp up and Iran’s recovery.

    We expect continued growth in low-cost producer output
    Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Iran (crude) and Russia (oil) production (kb/d)

    While there is much more in the full note, the bottom line is simple: near-term disruptions have led to a premature bounce in the price of oil, however as millions more in oil barrels come online (and as Chinese demand fades contrary to what Goldman believes), the next leg in oil will not be higher, but flat or lower, in what increasingly is shaping up to be a rerun of the summer of 2015.

    This is the updated Goldman price deck:

     

    And visually: “A sooner but shallower deficit is leading us to pull forward our expected price recovery but lower our 2017 forecast

  • Zuckerberg To Meet Conservative Media Figureheads As Facebook Censorship Scandal Escalates

    After last Monday’s explosive claims published in Gizmodo, in which a former Facebook employer alleged that the “social network” has been “routinely” suppressing conservative news stories, the company and its CEO have been on the back foot defending themselves from, as expected, mostly a conservative media onslaught. In an attempt to resolve the PR crisis, Mark Zuckerberg has invited prominent conservative media figures, including Glenn Beck and Dana Perino, to a meeting at Facebook’s headquarters this week.

    As CNN reports, the meeting is scheduled for Wednesday and aims at addressing the alleged suppression of conservative news stories in Facebook’s “trending” stories section.

    Along with Perino and Beck, other confirmed attendees include Arthur Brooks of the American Enterprise Institute, CNN conservative commentator SE Cupp, and Zac Moffatt, co-founder of tech firm Targeted Victory. Moffatt was previously Mitt Romney’s digital director.

    “I’m going in with an open mind and an eagerness to learn more,” Cupp said. “Conservatives and Silicon Valley actually come down on the same side of many issues and share some common concerns. I’m sure we’ll find plenty to talk about, and I’m honored to have been included.”

    Cupp sounds like the kind of guy who if he were an analyst, would start every question to management team with “great quarter guys…” no matter how atrocious the results.

    As for Zuckerberg, we are confused why not merely show evidence that the alleged censorship never took place instead of needing to massage the messengers, in this case some of the more prominent conservative names. Last Thursday, Zuckerberg said in a blog post that he would invite “leading conservatives and people from across the political spectrum” to talk with him about the controversy.

    While hopefully not nearly in awe of Zuckerberg as a smitten Cupp, Glenn Beck wrote on Facebook early Sunday morning that “Mark wanted to meet with 8 or ten of us to explain what happened and assure us that it won’t happen again,” adding that he plans to attend.

    Referring to Zuckerberg, he said, “It would be interesting to look him in the eye as he explains and a win for all voices if we can come to a place of real trust with this powerful tool.” It is unclear if this is a preview to an upcoming sponsored message on behalf of Facebook, which after Google, is the world’s second greatest expert at advertising.

    As CNN adds, Wednesday’s meeting is said to be the first of several such conversations, signaling that Facebook is well aware of the risk to its reputation that comes from the whiff of bias. Facebook said in a statement last week that it “does not allow or advise our reviewers to discriminate against sources of any political origin, period.”

    Curiously, at the same time it was unviled that according to a Facebook manual, “trending” stories do not rely solely on algorithms. Members of the company’s Trending topics team can decide to “inject” or “blacklist” topics for specific reasons, including to prevent duplicate terns from trending.

    The manual does not list political content as an acceptable reason to reject a story. It does, however, allow human bias to be part of determining what dtory does get rejected.

    “If we find anything against our principles, you have my commitment that we will take additional steps to address it,” Zuckerberg said when he launched the investigation spurred by Gizmodo’s report. It was not immediately clear if the CIA would have a right of first refusal to said “commitment.

  • FBI Agents Busted For Planting Hidden Surveillance Microphones In Public Places

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    When a reporter for the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command interviewed Frank Zappa for the commands news syndicate, the story was held by a superior who demanded that Zappa – who had been rather hard on the army – answer one more question: just who does he think will defend the country without the army?

     

    Zappa’s reply: “From what? The biggest threat to America today is it’s own federal government…. Will the Army protect anybody from the FBI? The IRS? The CIA? The Republican Party? The Democratic Party?….The biggest dangers we face today don’t even need to sneak past our billion dollar defense system….they issue the contracts for them.” The interview was not run.

     

    *Note: It’s uncertain whether the above exchange ever took place, since the interview was never run. Nevertheless, the point is clear, instructive and serves as the perfect introduction for this post, whether the words were actually said or not.

    One of the greatest afflictions affecting these United States at the moment is the general public’s overwhelming gullibility when it comes to government. You may think this sounds insane given surveys that consistently show Congress with a less than 10% approval rating, but I think this clouds the fact that most people have yet to accept just how completely corrupt and authoritarian government has actually become.

    I don’t mean for this to become some sort of big rant against government in general. Our founders set up a brilliant system which has served the country well for over two centuries. What people seem to forget is our system of government wasn’t set up to create a new set of parental authority figures for the public. The entire intent behind the Constitution was to create a series of checks and balances to restrain government from becoming too powerful and working against the interests of the public. Government’s primary role in America is supposed to be to protect the Constitution and defend the cherished civil liberties defined within it. In 2016, it does precisely opposite.

    Our government isn’t just corrupt though. Indeed, the primary function of government at the moment is to protect status quo criminals from the public, not the other way around. This is why the rich and powerful are never held to account, which is in turn why it continues to get worse and worse. A key gatekeeper in this whole scheme against the citizenry is the FBI.

    Time and time again throughout U.S. history, you see the FBI working to undermine the public’s freedom in order to protect whatever racket their status quo masters happen to be running at the time. There are countless examples, but I’ll list a few that I’ve covered, spanning the last 50 years to the present:

    Disturbing Claim – FBI Interrogated Former Senator for Wanting “28 Pages” Declassified

    Apple Vows to Defend Its Customers as the FBI Launches a War on Privacy and Security

    Read the Letter That Turned Folk Icon Pete Seeger Into an FBI Target

    Parents Beware – The FBI is Launching Program to Recruit High School Kids

    American Justice – FBI Lab Overstated Forensic Hair Matches in 95% of Cases, Including 32 Death Sentences

    FBI Documents Show Plot to Kill Occupy Leaders If “Deemed Necessary” – Yet Details Are Kept From the Public…Why?

    The Full Letter Written by the FBI to Martin Luther King Has Been Revealed

    The list goes on and on, but you get the point. The FBI doesn’t work to protect the public. That just Hollywood and primetime television spin. Its true function is to protect government and its rich and powerful patrons from the public.

    This sad reality is about to be demonstrated once again with the Hillary Clinton email investigation. If you or me had done what she did we’d be locked away forever without a second thought, but since the FBI works to protect the powerful, nothing will happen. That’s not to say there aren’t some great people who work at the FBI. I’m sure there are, but they aren’t the people making the big decisions. The decision makers know who they work for, and it isn’t you or I.

    All you have to do is understand the umbrella the FBI works under. It operates under the jurisdiction of the Department of Justice; the same department that jumped through every hoop imaginable to avoid jailing a single bank executive during one of the most destructive white collar crime sprees in American history. The one man who ensured the bankers were protected during his tenure was none other than Eric Holder. Now that he’s spun back through the revolving door to Covington and Burling, we shouldn’t be surprised to learn that Mr. Holder is heading up a fundraiser for none other than, you guessed it, Hillary Clinton.

    The Hill reports:

    Former Attorney General Eric Holder will headline a “lawyers for Hillary” fundraiser for Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton later this month.

     

    Available tickets for the fundraiser, which takes place May 31, range from $500 to $2,700, according to Clinton’s campaign website. “Young lawyer” tickets, priced at $250, were sold out as of early Sunday afternoon.

     

    Actress Julianna Margulies also will attend the fundraiser.

     

    The fundraiser comes as the FBI continues its probe into Clinton’s use of a private email server during her tenure as secretary of State.

    Yep, that’s right. The man who ran the DOJ and had oversight over the FBI during most of the Obama administration; the same man who refused to prosecute any powerful bankers, is now hosting a fundraiser for a presidential candidate under active investigation by the FBI. The idea that Hillary Clinton will be served anything resembling justice is preposterous.

    But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. When it’s not protecting the rich and powerful from the public or creating fake terrorist plots, it’s busy spying on the peasants. The latest example comes to us courtesy of CBS News in San Francisco:

    OAKLAND (CBS SF) — Hidden microphones that are part of a clandestine government surveillance program that has been operating around the Bay Area has been exposed.

     

    Imagine standing at a bus stop, talking to your friend and having your conversation recorded without you knowing.  It happens all the time, and the FBI doesn’t even need a warrant to do it.

     

    Federal agents are planting microphones to secretly record conversations.

     

    Jeff Harp, a KPIX 5 security analyst and former FBI special agent said, “They put microphones under rocks, they put microphones in trees, they plant microphones in equipment. I mean, there’s microphones that are planted in places that people don’t think about, because that’s the intent!”

     

    FBI agents hid microphones inside light fixtures and at a bus stop outside the Oakland Courthouse without a warrant to record conversations, between March 2010 and January 2011.

     

    Harp said, “An agent can’t just go out and grab a recording device and plant it somewhere without authorization from a supervisor or special agent in charge.”

    Because that makes me feel so much better…

    If Congress wasn’t so busy being corrupt shills for the powerful it might do something to stop this. I’m not holding my breath.

    Meanwhile, as ActivistPost.com warns, the expectation of privacy while in public space is becoming more hotly debated as continuous data collection is increasingly accepted as part of our digital world.

    I have previously written about the specific threat to civil liberties that blanket WiFi coverage poses.  New York City is turning thousands of its payphones into WiFi hotspots, while “Smart Pavement” is set for a massive roll-out across the UK.  This is occurring at the same time that NY senator Schumer has called for a federal investigation into high-tech billboards that spy on the public through facial recognition and mobile phone location data. Some assume all of this is being done for advertising purposes, but it’s also been revealed that many countries are using this to measure and manipulate political opinion.

     

    We are clearly heading into very dangerous territory as all of our data is being opened up for scrutiny by government, while its own operations are being done in secret using the malleable framework of crime and terrorism to justify the means to its ends.

     

    The good news is that an increasingly aware public, as well as a rising number of courageous whistleblowers, are shining new light about the depths to which our civil liberties are being erased.

    Stay vigilant and take something from the government’s playbook – if you see something, say something.

  • Libya's Central Bank Has $184 Million In Gold In Its Vault… It Just Doesn't Know The Combination

    Imagine a world in which the chief of a central bank didn't have access to cash.

    Libyans waited to withdraw money from an ATM. A currency shortage has roiled the country, which is struggling with an Islamic State insurgency

    Now stop imagining and take a look at the situation in Libya, where the central bank chief sits in Eastern Libya, while the headquarters is further West in Tripoli, and despite Tripoli sending $23.5 million each month to Eastern Libya, it's only a fraction of what central bank governor Ali El Hibri says is needed to pay the bills ($257 million to be exact).

    The situation becomes even more strange when the fact that Eastern Libya actually does have a significant amount of gold and silver that it could use to sell and convert to cash, but it's in a vault that requires a five-number access code that nobody seems to have. Nobody that is, except for El Hibri's counterparts in Tripoli that is, and they won't give the code out.

    Such is life now in Libya since Muammar Gaddafi was captured and killed in 2011. Eastern and Western Libya is divided into two rival governments, and even the central bankers aren't working together to solve issues.

    It's alleged that the vault has roughly $184 million worth of gold and silver within its walls, and El Hibri isn't going to wait for his colleagues in Tripoli to have a change of heart before he can get to it. While El Hibri waits for a shipment of fresh currency from a foreign printing house to come in, totaling close to $3 billion, the central bank chief has tasked a pair of safe crackers, consisting of one engineer and one   locksmith, to break into the vault and retrieve the coins.

    Although the coins apparently have Gaddafi's face on them, El Hibri has already worked a solution to that little issue by already agreeing to liquidate the treasure through gold and silver merchants provided they melt Gaddafi's likeness off.  

    The gold and silver coins were minted in 1979 to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of Gaddafi's rise to power. One side depicts the Italian-built colonial-era fortress in the southern city of Sabha where Gaddafi gave his first speech announcing his rule over the country. The flip side depicts a bust of the dictator wearing his colonel’s cap and military uniform. “The Great Arab Libyan Populist Socialist Republic,” is etched onto the gold and silver coins. They weigh 16 and 28 grams, respectively.

    Central bank officials in Tripoli won't comment on the matter according to the Wall Street Journal, but they have previously expressed outrage at sending money to the Eastern government, which in turn uses some of the funds to pay local militias that are acknowledged to be hostile to the Tripoli administration.

    Not only are El Hibris central bank counterparts concerned about how money is used by the East, the locals have a healthy bit of skepticism as well.

     

    "We don't trust the authorities with the gold. We're worried they'll steal it." said Waleed al-Hassi, a medical technician who said he hasn't been able to collect his public salary since November due to the cash shortage. Waleed is now having to moonlight as a taxi driver on the side to make money.

     

    The plan as it stands, is for the safe cracking duo to get beyond the first wall protecting the vault, then drill a 16-by-16-inch opening into the concrete wall so that the team can wedge themselves in and access the double doors. As far as the code, the locksmith portion of the duo plans to use "special techniques" in order to break into the 48-year old British-made vault.

    All we can say is that nothing surprises us anymore in this upside down bizarro world we live in. Actually no, we take that back, we are surprised that the Fed hasn't secretly extended a lifeline to the Libyan central bank, yet. After all, it is no stranger to quietly bailing out other banks.

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Today’s News 15th May 2016

  • Recession Watch: Freight Volume Drops to Worst Level since 2010

    By Wolf Richter of Wolf Street

    Freight shipments by truck and rail in the US fell 4.9% in April from the beaten-down levels of April 2015, according to the Cass Transportation Index, released on Friday. It was the worst April since 2010, which followed the worst March since 2010. In fact, shipment volume over the four months this year was the worst since 2010.

    This is no longer statistical “noise” that can easily be brushed off.

    The Cass Freight Index is based on “more than $26 billion” in annual freight transactions by “hundreds of large shippers,” regardless of mode of transportation, including by truck and rail. It does not cover bulk commodities, such as oil and coal and thus is not impacted by the collapsing oil and coal shipments. The index is focused on consumer packaged goods, food, automotive, chemical, OEM, heavy equipment, and retail.

    In a similar vein, the Association of American Railroads reported last week that loads of containers and trailers fell 7.5% in April year-over-year. “Intermodal” is a direct competitor to trucking. Combined, they’re a measure of the goods-based economy.

    The Cass Freight Index is not seasonally adjusted. Hence the strong seasonal patterns in the chart. Note the beaten-down first four months of 2016 (red line):

    US-Cass-freight-index-2016-04-shipments

    And May is not going to look much better. The report:

    May is usually a relatively strong month for freight shipments, but given the high inventories with ever slower turnover rates and the decline in new production orders, May could be another soft month.

    These inventories are a doozie. Total business inventories have ballooned since late 2014, even as business sales have declined. On Friday, the Commerce Department reported the March installment of that story: total business sales (adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes) fell once again, this time by 1.7% from a year ago; and business inventories rose by 1.5% from a year ago.

    As a result, the crucial inventory-to-sales ratio, which tracks how long unsold inventories sit around and gather dust, has blown out to the same crisis level it had spiked to following the Lehman bankruptcy:

    US-Inventory-Sales-ratio-2008=2016-03

    With sales down and inventories very high, businesses are trimming their orders to bring inventories back in line, and this is impacting the transportation industry.

    Due to falling volume and “very soft rates,” as the report puts it, shippers have spent 8.3% less in April than a year ago, the lowest April spend since 2011. “With ample capacity available across the modes, competition for loads is holding rates down,” the report explains.

    Transportation data provider DAT looks at this from the truckers’ point of view. It tracks national spot-market demand for trucks and availability of trucks via its load-to-truck ratio – “a sensitive real-time indicator” of the balance between the two. And the spot market for the largest category, van-type trailers has become ugly: Last month, the load-to-truck ratio for vans plunged 46% from April 2015, and 52% from April 2014. It has been terrible all year (red line):

    US-Trucking-Load-to-Truck-ratio-2013_2016-04

    Cass notes that the economy “decelerated in the first four months of 2016.” And this “slowdown,” the report said, was caused by:

    • the continued decline of the global economy;
    • the reticence of the consumer sector to increase its buying;
    • the loss of jobs and income from the plunging oil costs (which shut down the fracking business and cut back on coal shipments);
    • very high inventory levels across the entire supply chain;
    • and poor export figures due to both the strength of the U.S. dollar and a decline in worldwide demand.

    Which aptly summarizes much of what troubles the US economy. And the current data doesn’t leave much room for any excess optimism:

    Eyes are on the Chinese economy, which has been extremely unstable and can have a big effect on world economies if it continues to falter. Based on the trends of many economic indicators, it appears the economy may get worse before it gets better.

    This type of transportation data shines some light on the goods-based economy in the US, and by extension, in the world: the goods-based economy is hurting – and there are no signs it’s getting any better anytime soon.

    The downturn’s impact on railroads has become very visible beyond their income statements: the majestic sight of 292 Union Pacific engines idled in Arizona Desert! Read…  Freight Rail Traffic Plunges: Haunting Pictures of Transportation Recession

  • You Know Those Missing Hillary Emails? Russia Might Leak 20,000 Of Them

    Submitted by Claire Bernish via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Hillary Clinton sits at the center of a raging firestorm concerning her arrangement of a private email account and server set up in her home — from which top secret information may have been deleted. But despite Bernie Sanders’ apparent annoyance with the “damn emails,” the scandal just exponentially intensified, when Judge Andrew Napolitano revealed on Monday that Russia has possession of around 20,000 of Clinton’s emails — leaving open the possibility her deletions might not have been permanent after all.

    “There’s a debate going on in the Kremlin between the Foreign Ministry and the Intelligence Services about whether they should release the 20,000 of Mrs. Clinton’s emails that they have hacked into,” Napolitano told Fox News’ Megyn Kelly in an interview for The Kelly File.

    With Clinton’s repeated claims she employed the personal email server only for mundane communications and non-sensitive State matters having been proven outright lies, the deletions of 31,830 emails — in the new context of Napolitano’s statement — have suddenly become remarkably relevant.

    As the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton’s questionable email practices deepens, the question of who had access to what information previously located on the former secretary of state’s server is now more critical than ever.

    One such individual, Romanian hacker Guccifer, who was abruptly extradited to the United States, revealed he had easily and repeatedly accessed Clinton’s personal server — and he wasn’t the only one.

    “For me, it was easy,” the hacker, whose given name is Marcel Lehel Lazar, exclusively told Fox News; “easy for me, for everybody.”

    If Guccifer and Napolitano are right, Russia may, indeed, have possession of highly-sensitive information courtesy of Clinton’s arrogant failure to adhere to the obligation to use a government email account during her tenure as secretary — a situation worsened by the now-mendacious claim no sensitive information had been sent through the personal account.

    In fact, if Guccifer is to be believed — as his extradition by the U.S. indicates — news of the Kremlin having obtained potentially top-secret material may be the tip of a gargantuan iceberg. Using a readily available program, the Romanian hacker also claimed he observed “up to 10, like, IPs from other parts of the world” during sessions on Clinton’s personal server. If just one of those unknown parties was connected to Russia, who the other nine might be could be central to the FBI’s decision whether or not to charge Clinton for mishandling classified information.

    Adding yet another nail in the coffin case against Hillary on Thursday, the Hill reported conservative watchdog Judicial Watch revealed, pursuant to a Freedom of Information Act request, frustration with technical difficulties in obtaining a secure phone line led the secretary to direct a top aide to abandon the effort and call her without the necessary security in place.

    “I give up. Call me on my home [number],” Clinton wrote in a February 2009 email from the newly-released batch — on the also notoriously unsecured server — to then-chief of staff, Cheryl Mills.

    Though the email thread contains no confirmation such a call was ever made on the unsecured phone line, it evidences still more of the same flagrant disregard for national security apparently peppering Clinton’s practices during her time at the State Department.

    “This drip, drip of new Clinton emails show Hillary Clinton could not care less about the security of her communications,” noted Judicial Watch president, Tom Fitton, in a statement cited by the Hill. “How many other smoking gun emails are Hillary Clinton and her co-conspirators in the Obama administration hiding from the American people?”

    For a putative presidential hopeful, Hillary Clinton certainly doesn’t appear to appreciate the imperative for keeping matters of national security obscured from … anyone.

  • How Hedge Funds Invest Heavily In Washington D.C.'s Culture Of Corruption

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Earlier this week, Ryan Grim and Paul Blumenthal published a blockbuster piece in the Huffington Post, titled: The Vultures’ Vultures: How A New Hedge-Fund Strategy Is Corrupting Washington.

    It details the secretive world of the dark money groups representing mercenary hedge funds in their insatiable quest for more and more money. In many ways, it’s merely a microcosm of America in 2016. A culture in which ethics has become so irrelevant, it isn’t even a nuisance; it simply never factors into the equation.

    The first few paragraphs set the stage perfectly:

    WASHINGTON – Take Robert Shapiro.

     

    A Harvard-trained economist, Shapiro is the head of a consulting firm called Sonecon. That business card doesn’t do it for you? He’s got a few more in his wallet:

    Senior fellow at the Georgetown University School of Business.

     

    Adviser to the International Monetary Fund.

     

    Director of the Globalization Initiative at NDN, a progressive think tank.

     

    Shapiro, a Democrat, has advised presidents and presidential candidates, and has held powerful government posts. It stands to reason, then, that when he has thoughts on public policy, he can find an outlet ready to publish them.

     

    Recently, he’s had ideas on how the government can address the debt crisis in Puerto Rico and how it can end the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by moving them into the private market. Before that, he had a take on how to deal with Argentina’s debt crisis. For all three, he produced academic-looking papers, complete with footnotes and charts.

     

    All three situations have one thing in common: If they were resolved the way Shapiro suggested, a variety of bets placed by a select group of the most politically powerful hedge funds would pay off in a huge way. In the case of Argentina, they mostly have. Fights over how to resolve the other two issues are still raging in Washington.

     

    For this article, we called Shapiro to ask on whose behalf he has been waging these intellectual battles. His answer was surprising in its honesty: He’s working with DCI Group, a political dark arts master known to be advocating on behalf of a group of powerful hedge funds that are changing how Washington works.

    If you want to get a sense of what’s motivating Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders voters, it’s a desire to take people like Robert Shapiro, remove them from the halls of power, and toss them into a cardboard box on the street. Of course, that won’t be happening any time soon, but that’s what a lot of people want.

    What follows are some additional excerpts from the piece, which I strongly suggest you read in full.

    Shapiro, it turns out, is but one foot soldier in the hedge fund infantry. A review of public documents, tax filings and interviews with people involved finds that in each of the three campaigns, hedge funds have enlisted the same set of lobbyists, political operatives, dark money groups and think-tank experts spanning the political spectrum.

     

    The band that has gotten together for the big three hedge fund jam sessions includes some unlikely allies: There’s DCI Group, the powerhouse lobbying firm. Then there’s the Raben Group, operatives whose specialty is working in the progressive space and lobbying Democrats. There’s the American Continental Group, a bipartisan lobbying firm. There’s 60 Plus and the Center for Individual Freedom, two groups that call themselves part of the conservative movement, but in reality are dark money groups known to run whatever campaign they’re paid to run, and that are happy to conceal the source of the funding. All these groups have roughly nothing in common, other than that they all have united in advocacy campaigns that alternately go up against the Argentinian people, Puerto Ricans and the rest of the American public.

     

    Each of these campaigns appears to have been run by or aided by the DCI Group. We say “appears” because DCI is one of Washington’s great black boxes — news articles that involve DCI routinely include a line informing readers that the organization did not respond to a request for comment. This article is no different.

    Old Washington hands involved in these particular fights say that nothing they’ve seen before in politics has prepared them for the mercenary campaigns the hedge funds are now waging.

     

    “There’s something about this that’s almost more disturbing, because you get an issue that’s not particularly a big public issue and people can spend and spend and spend,” said a veteran policymaker who found himself on the wrong end of the hedge funds. “And I don’t know how anybody can compete with it. And then you start losing the narrative and you see groups on the left get bought out and corrupted — really corrupted. I don’t know what to do about it.”

    It’s so bad, even the critters in Congress are disgusted by it.

    And it’s not ideological, either. If a big group of hedge funds decided to short the health insurance industry, it could easily be in their interests to fund a dark money campaign on behalf of single-payer health care. If they short the big banks, they’ve now become allies with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

     

    In Puerto Rico, the group of hedge funds waging the biggest lobbying campaign own debt that is first in line to be paid off in case of any calamity. (That’s not to say there aren’t other hedge funds that own different sets of Puerto Rican debt lobbying so that they’re the first to be paid; more on them later.) They’re now betting that they can stop Congress from rescuing Puerto Rico by amending bankruptcy laws to allow Puerto Rico to cover its basic expenses before paying out the hedge funds.

     

    Betting that Congress does nothing is often a smart wager. If the island government is forced to pay off creditors first, it will have to take those funds from vital programs threatening the livelihoods of people who live there.

    Here’s an example of how they threaten Congressional aides.

    Or even against staffers. In the midst of the debate over how to restructure Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in early 2014, Jim Millstein was sitting down on Capitol Hill with Michael Bright, an aide to Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who was working on the legislation. Millstein, like other hedge-fund titans lobbying on the bill, had a set of structural recommendations he thought the Senate should take up.

     

    Millstein was worth listening to: While a top Treasury Department official, he had overseen the successful restructuring of AIG after the government bailout. But Millstein had an extra recommendation: The Fannie Mae shareholders needed to be paid out — shareholders like Millstein.

     

    The aide told Millstein he didn’t see why shareholders, who bought Fannie stock for pennies when the government had already bailed it out, needed a windfall. The meeting turned tense. “Don’t worry kid, you’re about to get yours,” Millstein said, according to a Democratic committee staffer later briefed on the episode. Bright, reached for comment, declined to speak for this article.

     

    The DCI Group most famously built its reputation doing the dirty work of the tobacco industry. That long-running operation involved funding “experts” who would question the medical science around smoking, and targeting individual advocates and lawmakers. It pioneered the use of shadow groups that concealed the true source of funding for the campaign, and can be seen as a blueprint for the hedge fund campaigns.

    Of course it did.

    Back in 2007, DCI was instrumental in killing legislation that would have regulated Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a doomed effort that may have prevented the lenders from melting down. It earned $2 million from Freddie Mac for its work.

     

    DCI was also part of American Task Force Argentina, the hedge-fund backed effort that battled Argentina over its default. Raben Group’s Robert Raben and Shapiro led the task force, and Shapiro’s consulting firm was paid at least $450,000. While there are no public filings today, the group is helping run the Fannie hedge-fund operation, according to DCI managing partner Justin Peterson, who has privately talked about DCI’s work. Shapiro, too, said he was working with DCI for his housing policy work.

     

    McGill represented NML Capital, a subsidiary of Elliott Management, the hedge fund connected with GOP megadonor Paul Singer, in the lawsuit against Argentina, along with Aurelius Capital Management. That lawsuit allowed the hedge funds to extract billions from the Argentinian people. It came after the years-long slash-and-burn campaign run from the  American Task Force Argentina — a lobbying coalition of Covington & Burling, DCI Group and the Raben Group.

    Well, well, well, will you take a look at that. Who do we find amongst hedge fund mercenary groups? None other than Covington & Burling. That’s right, the law firm that Eric Holder worked at before spinning through the revolving door into government, just in time to serve as Obama’s attorney general in order to protect bank executives from prosecution.

    Recall what we learned in the post, Cronyism Pays – Eric “Too Big to Jail” Holder Triumphantly Returns to His Prior Corporate Law Firm Job:

    After failing to criminally prosecute any of the financial firms responsible for the market collapse in 2008, former Attorney General Eric Holder is returning to Covington & Burling, a corporate law firm known for serving Wall Street clients.

     

    The move completes one of the more troubling trips through the revolving door for a cabinet secretary. Holder worked at Covington from 2001 right up to being sworn in as attorney general in Feburary 2009. And Covington literally kept an office empty for him, awaiting his return.

     

    The Covington & Burling client list has included four of the largest banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. 

    For more information on one of the most shameless cronies and fraudsters in American history, see:

    Must Watch Video – “The Veneer of Justice in a Kingdom of Crime”

    The U.S. Department of Justice Handles Banker Criminals Like Juvenile Offenders…Literally

    Eric Holder Announces Task Force to Focus on “Domestic Terrorists”

    Eric Holder and the DOJ Have Spent Millions of Taxpayer Dollars on Unreported Personal Travel

    Elizabeth Warren Confronts Eric Holder, Ben Bernanke and Mary Jo White on Bankster Immunity

    Even Washington D.C. Insiders Admit Eric Holder is a Bankster Puppet

    Eric Holder Claims Emails Using Words ‘Fast and Furious’ Don’t Refer to Operation Fast and Furious

    Screen Shot 2016-05-13 at 2.05.41 PM

  • Robogov coming to a town near you

    Automation is taking over all aspects of society.  In many cases, this is a good thing.  As we explain in Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – trading Forex manually (Without robots or automation) is basically impossible.  But also we’ve learned that when anything is done by the government, it ends up being mismanaged, overpriced, delayed, or worse.  In the most extreme example, inmates on death row that are killed by the government, are later found to be innocent with DNA or other hard evidence.  Studies show recently that 4% of inmates killed are innocent, but many believe it to be much higher, as much as 50%.  Whatever is the number, one person being killed who is innocent is one too many.

    So, the state of Florida has implemented an automated toll system, which will not only take a photo of your license plate automatically, it will automatically find your address based on your DMV records, and mail you an invoice!  

    This invoice was paid promptly via online credit card.  What would have been interesting to see how they handle situations where the invoice was not paid!  But they fairly billed only the toll, $4.75.  It happened on the way from Fort Lauderdale to Miami, on 95’s new overpass, southbound to Miami.  There were many flashing signs “Tolls begin Monday (it was Saturday night)”  – but no where to pay the toll.  

    What happens when the IRS automatically deducts your taxes from your bank account?  Let’s be practical, any bank or financial institution inside the borders of USA – is open to the possibility of complete control by the Feds, for benign reasons – or in case of emergency, POTUS can always declare some emergency circumstances.. and poof!  For example:

    “In order to protect your security, and maintain financial stability of the system, we are deducting this temporary lien fine from your account, according to Section 42 Title 9 of the code.  Due to paperwork reduction act compliance this notification is electronic only.  Have a nice day.”

    Sounds far fetched, but so does the automated robotic toll system currently in use by the state of Florida, that automatically photographs cars and mails the registered drivers invoices – to other states!  

    Practically speaking, systems like this are not new, and have been in use in Europe for decades, and in California.  What’s particularly creepy about this though is there was no way to pay the toll in person by car.  It wasn’t labelled too well – no sign saying “Drive in this lane and we will mail you a ticket.”  Not sure if that’s even legal.

    Dear lawyers, is it a legally binding contract, between driver and the State of Florida, by driving in this lane, I have agreed they will photograph my car, and mail me an invoice?  Does it violate my privacy?  What if I didn’t understand the contract?  There wasn’t any clear explanation of how this contract worked.  What was simply strange is that in Florida, like many states, roads are distinguished between public and private.  Florida’s Turnpike, a well known private toll road – has it’s own tolling system.  It’s clearly marked and if you are really stupid, you can ask the toll booth worker about the rules, and if you don’t have money to pay or want to argue about something, there’s a manager in an office near most toll stations.  So seeing this ‘private lane’ on the drive to Miami was a real surprise for a Floridian, especially that it wasn’t marked clearly – and that robogov found me one month later in another state!  

    As an IT professional, the system is respectable.  Managing millions of drivers in a tourist state is not easy.  And the drivers in Florida are CRAZY.  So that’s another point, maybe it takes robots to manage such a group of “Floridians.”  But on another level, something just doesn’t feel right about a government run system that is automated. 

    If this is the thinking of the government – beware Roboregulations.  

    Our company Elite E Services has authored thousands of Forex robots, that automate the trading process.  Banks develop robots to automate their liquidity and risk management, so trading has become a battle of the robots.  But in this case, it’s just a one way – management robotic system. 

    Learn more about Forex automation at Elite E Services or checkout our book, Splitting Pennies.  Learn more about class action settlement automation at Liquid Claims.

  • US Army Shrinks To Smallest Since 1940 As Chinese Military Recruiting Accelerates

    The Army’s latest headcount shows that nearly 2,600 soldiers departed active service in March without being replaced, an action that plunges manning to its lowest level since before World War II, according to ArmyTimes.com. This is occurring as The People's Liberation Army (incidentally the world's largest military force, with a strength of approximately 2,285,000 personnel, or 0.18% of China's population) has begun aggressively recruiting, and rattling its sabre increasingly loudly over US interference in the South China Sea island dispute and most recently in Hong Kong.

    During the past year the size of the active force has been reduced by 16,548 soldiers, the rough equivalent of three brigades.

    Endstrength for March was 479,172 soldiers, which is 154 fewer troopers than were on active duty when the Army halted the post-Cold War drawdown in 1999 with 479,424 soldiers, the smallest force since 1940, when the active component numbered 269,023 soldiers.

     

    According to the Army Times, the Army is on track to reach its goal of reducing the number of active duty troops to 475,000 by Sept. 30, the end of fiscal year 2016. Under a drawdown plan unveiled last July, the number of active-duty soldiers would be reduced to 460,000 soldiers by the end of fiscal year 2017 and 450,000 by the end of fiscal year 2018, barring action by Congress or the Pentagon.

    If those targets are met, the number of soldiers on active duty would be down 20 percent from 2010, when there were nearly 570,000 soldiers on active duty.

    When the Army presented its plan last July, military officials said their hands were tied by reduced funding levels.

    "These are not cuts the Army wants to make, these are cuts required by budget environment in which we operate," Gen. Daniel Allyn, vice chief of staff of the Army, said at the time. "This 40,000 soldier cut … will only get us to the program force, it does not deal with the continued threat of sequestration."

    In addition to those on active duty, the Army has 548,024 soldiers in reserve, for a total force of 1,027,196 soldiers. Under the drawdown plan, the total force number would be reduced to 980,000 by the end of fiscal year 2018.

    And this is occurring as China builds its military might with aggressive recruiting tactics.

    As we previously noted, whilst history doesn’t repeat it often rhymes. As Alexander, Rome and Britain fell from their positions of absolute global dominance, so too has the US begun to slip. America’s global economic dominance has been declining since 1998, well before the Global Financial Crisis. A large part of this decline has actually had little to do with the actions of the US but rather with the unraveling of a century’s long economic anomaly. China has begun to return to the position in the global economy it occupied for millenia before the industrial revolution. Just as the dollar emerged to global reserve currency status as its economic might grew, so the chart below suggests the increasing push for de-dollarization across the 'rest of the isolated world' may be a smart bet…

     

    The geopolitical consequences of the diminishment of US global dominance

    Each of these events has shown America’s unwillingness to take strong foreign policy action and certainly underlined its unwillingness to use force. America’s allies and enemies have looked on and taken note. America’s geopolitical multiplier has declined even as its relative economic strength has waned and the US has slipped backwards towards the rest of the pack of major world powers in terms of relative geopolitical power.

    Throughout this piece we have looked to see what we can learn from history in trying to understand changes in the level of structural geopolitical tension in the world. We have in general argued that the broad sweep of world history suggests that the major driver of significant structural change in global levels of geopolitical tension has been the relative rise and fall of the world’s leading power. We have also suggested a number of important caveats to this view – chiefly that a dominant superpower only provides for structurally lower geopolitical tensions when it is itself internally stable. We have also sought to distinguish between a nation being an “economic” superpower (which we can broadly measure directly) and being a genuine “geopolitical” superpower (which we can’t). On this subject we have hypothesised that the level of a nations geopolitical power can roughly be estimated multiplying its relative economic power by a “geopolitical multiplier” which reflects that nations ability to amass and project force, its willingness to intervene in the affairs of the world and the extent of its “soft power”.

    Given this analysis it strikes us that today we are in the midst of an extremely rare historical event – the relative decline of a world superpower. US global geopolitical dominance is on the wane – driven on the one hand by the historic rise of China from its disproportionate lows and on the other to a host of internal US issues, from a crisis of American confidence in the core of the US economic model to general war weariness. This is not to say that America’s position in the global system is on the brink of collapse. Far from it. The US will remain the greater of just two great powers for the foreseeable future as its “geopolitical multiplier”, boosted by its deeply embedded soft power and continuing commitment to the “free world” order, allows it to outperform its relative economic power. As America’s current Defence Secretary, Chuck Hagel, said earlier this year, “We (the USA) do not engage in the world because we are a great nation. Rather, we are a great nation because we engage in the world.”

    Nevertheless the US is losing its place as the sole dominant geopolitical superpower and history suggests that during such shifts geopolitical tensions structurally increase. If this analysis is correct then the rise in the past five years, and most notably in the past year, of global geopolitical tensions may well prove not temporary but structural to the current world system and the world may continue to experience more frequent, longer lasting and more far reaching geopolitical stresses than it has in at least two decades. If this is indeed the case then markets might have to price in a higher degree of geopolitical risk in the years ahead.

  • New KFC Restaurant Is Run Entirely By Robots

    First McDonalds, then Wendy’s, soon Carl’s Jr., and now KFC. The minimum-wage-driven automation of the lower-end of the workforce is accelerating…

    Submitted by Nick Bernabe via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Colonel Sanders is raising a robot army to serve fried chicken at a restaurant near you. KFC’s first automated restaurant, called Original+, went live in Shanghai on April 25th, complete with an artificially intelligent robot manager named “Du Mi” who works at the front counter.

    According to Chinese news outlet Sohu, “‘Du Mi’ marks the first commercial use of artificial intelligence in the fast food industry. The artificial intelligence robot was launched by China’s leading web services company Baidu during its World Conference in 2015.”

    (Interior view of the KFC store in Shanghai…doesn’t look much like the local KFC here)

    KFC hopes that the hip new automated restaurant will attract young customers with its free wireless phone charging stations and human-less eating experience.

    kfc

    But it’s not just KFC, and it’s not just China where automation, robots, and artificial intelligence is taking the place of human workers. If and when these automated restaurants gain traction in places like China, they are sure to be implemented in the U.S., as well. In fact, they already are — though to a lesser extent, for now. McDonald’s and other food chains are experimenting with digital kiosks similar to the self-checkout machines already found in many grocery stores.

    kfc

    KFC’s Original+ kiosk.

    In fact, as we covered recently at Anti-Media, automation is set to replace human jobs across broad sectors of the U.S. and world economies:

    “[T]he Bank of England is preparing for automation to shed 80 million American jobs and 15 million British jobs within the next 10 to 20 years. This is approximately 50% of the U.S. and British workforce. Forbes has put the number at 45%.”

    The ongoing debate surrounding robots, A.I., and automation displacing human workers is a delicate yet very important one. Many experts, including Stephen Hawking, have warned of the dangers of monopolistic artificial intelligence while others believe with the right direction from people, robots and technology can liberate humanity from manual labor.

    The inevitable automation of the world’s economy will reshape society as we know it. Minimum wages will no longer protect workers as employers shift to using robots who will never ask for breaks, pay, raises, or healthcare. Worker unions may essentially be rendered useless. Militaries will eventually no longer need humans to fight wars. Additionally, Uber, Lyft, taxi and limousine drivers, and other driving jobs could soon be replaced by self-driving cars as automation also changes the way we think about transportation altogether.

    Automation is loved, feared, and hated by many, but only time will tell how it will change our lives — for better or worse.

  • Is A Venezuela Coup Imminent? An Interview With A National Guardsman

    Following several very disturbing stories about the start of Venezuela’s social apocalypse, in the first case chronicling “Streets Filled With People Killing Animals For Food” and then last night documenting “Countless Wounded” After 5,000 Loot Supermarket Looking For Food, we concluded that “as civil war appears inevitable, as there are factions vying to oust Maduro, although we are confident the dictator will hang on for dear life (literally) and force his population to endure more of this socialist nightmare.”

    Today, now that speculation about a coup and/or civil war is becoming ever louder, we address some of these concerns courtesy of a must-read interview with a member of Bolivarian National Guard, the country’s national guardsmen, conducted by PanAm Post, which provides a critical blueprint of the next very tragic steps in Venezuela, which unfortunately now appear certainly to conclude with a national coup.

    From PanAm Post:

    Venezuela Is on the Brink of Social Collapse” National Guardsman

    Food Shortages Cause Daily Looting, Energy Crisis Worsens as National State of Emergency Approaches

     

    At the moment, the armed forces’ position vis-à-vis the government is not clear. Some speculate that the Bolivarian National Guard is divided. Others claim that the regime exerts full control over the Bolivarian National Guard’s members. The only certainty is that uncertainty abounds.

    The PanAm Post had the opportunity to interview a Bolivarian National Guard member of middle rank, who asked to remain anonymous since his views could expose him to danger.

    Why has the state launched an offensive against criminal groups?

    The situation was getting out of hand for political reasons. The state has no means to control criminal groups. The country’s jails are in chaos. The streets themselves are in chaos. The state’s security personnel are unarmed.

    The Maduro regime created the Organization for the Protection and Liberation for the People (OLP) to fight organized crime. Has that organization committed illegal acts as well?

    From a legal standpoint, yes. Now from the point of view of the general population, no, because they tolerate harsh methods against the criminal bands.

    But do they only kill criminals?

    In the majority of cases.

    Is the OLP really carrying out its operations strictly to end gang violence?

    That is their main purpose. But there is also a political element. The OLP’s creation was a desperate measure. The government had given liberty to the gangs to do what they please. They armed them and now they are attacking them.

    Is the OLP at war with gangs and with government officials at the same time?

    Yes, because they can’t control them. They have become too powerful. They are armed and they teach military strategy. These criminals used to fight against each other. Now they have a truce between them and they fight the military and other security forces. They say, “as long as we kill them, we’ll survive.”

    Does the state benefit by arming gangs? What is the regime trying to achieve?

    Their goal is to have armed groups on their side in case of political turmoil. That is the final goal. Disarmament laws only affect innocent people. Criminal have many more weapons than we do at the National Guard. They also have much more power. We can’t control that now. Any solution will come too late.

    The economic crisis and the public health crisis are becoming uncontrollable. The security forces are competent, but the government had to realize that the criminals were killing us all before they acted against them.

    How corrupt is is the National Guard?

    There is corruption in the National Guard, and there always has been. The difference is that, before, the system was more efficient. The National Guard decayed when it became political. Since we started to vote and to take part in the country’s political life, there has been no peace in the ranks.

    Now there is pressure on us because we have to follow the constitution, but we also have to be loyal to our higher officers even when their orders don’t correspond to the laws. If their orders contradict the laws, you can’t follow them. So there is a rift between the security forces and the other institutions.

    The government has an apparatus for persecution and espionage, so you can’t make negative statements about functionaries. The security services themselves are plagued by informants. You have to watch your every word.

    All of those military upheavals denouncing the government, those attempts to overthrow the government — are they real?

    No, the majority are false. There won’t be any coup attempts in Venezuela.

    Why not?

    Right now, all elements of the armed forces are under control. A coup-d’état takes place when you reach a breaking point and someone in the higher echelons of the armed forces decides that it’s time to act against the government. Right now in Venezuela, there are political divisions within the armed forces. There is neither the necessary unity nor the necessary organization for a coup to take place. Besides, officers fear the government’s informants. Everyone is on guard.

    What will result from the current discontent?

    The army and the National Guard are waiting. I can assure you that we are quite unhappy. But there is an entire structure above us, so it’s not easy to act. We receive criticism from all sides. Wherever I go, I come face to face with civilians’ displeasure and complaints. I also think the opposition has failed to take advantage of its opportunities to topple the government.

    How so?

    For example, when they won the parliamentary elections last December, the atmosphere was tense. The entire leadership knew what would happen. So did we. Former Speaker of the House Diosdado Cabello was willing to take the armed forces to the street against the opposition, but Padrino López, the Minister of Defense, didn’t allow him to do so.

    What happened exactly on December 6?

    The stories are true. That day there was a strong discussion between Padrino López and Cabello. López told Cabello that, if he ordered the troops to take the streets, he was going to have the army kill him.

    But did Padrino López only do it to save his own skin?

    Of course. He would have been responsible if the army started to massacre people. López was not going to allow that to happen. So that day the army was ordered to guard the opposition.

    On whose side does Padrino López find himself? That day, a rumor got out that he was defending Chávez’s revolution.

    Padrino López is intelligent, and I don’t doubt that he’s a chavista. But all branches of the armed forces are dissatisfied with the current situation. Imagine if one day they let Diosdado Cabello commit a massacre. If something like that occurs, the army will support President Maduro.

    And what has the Bolivarian National Guard done during the recent demonstrations? Why has the army remained silent?

    Those are two different situations. Like I said, government intelligence is an obstacle to action. The risk of not obeying orders is very large, but there is a lot of discontent and resentment due to the measures carried out by the Bolivarian National Guard and other officials.

    If discontent is so widespread, why is there no talk of a coup?

    That’s already been discussed. The coup d’état, we hope, will not be repeated. We remember what happened in 2002 with Chávez and we don’t want something similar to happen in the future.

    We are rather waiting for things to get truly out of hand. And that will happen in the following months. The situation is extremely unstable and the status quo can’t last. We are witnessing daily looting at supermarkets, and people are protesting.

    The crisis at Guri Dam (Venezuela’s most important hydroelectric power station) will get worse. Everything will get worse and there will be an implosion.

    At that moment, the country’s future will be determined. I don’t believe there’s much time left.

    Are you sure that something drastic will happen soon?

    Without a doubt. The Bolivarian National Guard has already discussed the matter.

    The situation in Venezuela has never been as bad as it is now. The breaking point is near, but still not at hand. My recommendation is for people to prepare, to look for food and then to store it. Obviously, when the implosion occurs , it won’t last long. I believe it will last something like 10 days, but they will be difficult days.

    There will be a state of emergency, and that will bring the crisis to an end.

    What will happen with the recall referendum that the opposition is trying to unleash against President Maduro?

    That’s not a serious option. The regime has demonstrated that it can violate the constitution without second thoughts. They are going to accept the referendum, but only if they know they can win with any method available. The situation will only come to a head when hunger and the lack of electricity force people to take direct action.

    So are the Armed Forces ready for a social catastrophe to take place?

    We are really willing to intervene if the country undergoes a social catastrophe. It’s as if we have water in a pot and it begins to boil very slowly. There will be a moment when, if the gas is not turned off, the water begins to overflow and disaster ensues.

  • The Dismal Retirement Picture For America's Older Generation

    As we have pointed out many times in the past (most recently here), the jobs "recovery" has gone disproportionately to older workers at the expense of younger workers.

     

    In fact, as Bloomberg points out, the employment-to-population ratio for those 65 and over is at its highest level since the early 1960's.

    This creates a bottleneck for younger workers who are looking to move up from their current roles, and also those that are trying to gain entry level employment but can't until the current occupiers of those seats can move up. The situation doesn't appear to be on the verge of getting any better either, as 27% of Americans say they will "keep working as long as possible" according to a 2015 Federal Reserve study – and to make matters worse (for younger generations), 12% of Americans say they don't plan to retire at all.

     

    The primary reason for the older generations remaining in the workforce isn't surprising: people simply don't have the money to retire. Three in five retirees surveyed by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies said making money or earning benefits was at least one reason they had retired later than planned, and almost half said financial problems were the main reason for working past 65.

     

    With nearly 60% of all U.S. households having no savings in individual retirement accounts such as a IRA or 401(k), the fact that older workers simply can't afford to retire is not a surprise. Those that do have a retirement account, predictably see different levels of funding according to their income.

     

    And of course, those with the highest funded retirement account receive the highest monthly returns – said otherwise, the wealthy grow disproportionately richer in retirement as well.

     

    What all of this means is that the trouble younger workers are having getting into the workforce will continue, furthering their inability to make any payments on the massive amount of student loan debt racked up while in college. For those that are fortunate enough to already be in those entry level positions, they'll have to make due with the current situation, because the older generation isn't going anywhere. What it also means, is that the Federal Reserve better figure out how will it keep market levels where they are, otherwise it runs the risk that what little is currently in retirement accounts will be wiped out. If there is a replay of 2008, the younger generations might as well hang it up – as well as those institutions that are holding the corresponding student debt.

  • For The American Farmer "It's Death By A 1,000 Knives”- US Farmland Values Plunge Most In 30 Years

    Not so long ago, US farmland – whose prices were until recently rising exponentially – was considered by many to be the next asset bubble. Then, exactly one year ago, the fairytale officially ended, and as reported in February, US farmland saw its first price drop since 1986. It was also about a year ago when looking ahead, very few bankers expected price appreciation and more than a quarter of survey respondents expect cropland values to continue declining.

    They were right.

    According to several regional Fed reports released last Thursday, real farmland values in parts of the Midwest fell at their fastest clip in almost 30 years during the first quarter.

    This is how the Chicago Fed described the increasingly dire situation:

    Agricultural land values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District fell 4 percent from a year ago in the first quarter of 2016—their largest year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2009. Cash rental rates for District farmland experienced a significant drop of 10 percent for 2016 compared with 2015—even larger than the decrease of last year relative to 2014. Demand to purchase agricultural land was markedly lower in the three- to six-month period ending with March 2016 compared with the same period ending with March 2015. Moreover, the amount of farmland for sale, the number of farms sold, and the amount of acreage sold were all down during the winter and early spring of 2016 compared with a year ago. Nearly two-thirds of the responding bankers expected farmland values to decrease during the second quarter of 2016, with the rest expecting farmland values to remain stable.

    As the WSJ added, falling crop prices have weighed on land values from Kansas to Indiana over the past two years as farm income declined and investors who had piled into the asset at the start of the decade retrenched.

    Three regional Federal Reserve banks all reported year-over-year declines in farmland values in their districts and said the drops would continue, though their forecasts were based on surveys taken before the recent rally in corn and soybean prices.

    The St. Louis Fed region that includes parts of the U.S. agricultural heartland in Illinois, Indiana and Missouri reported the steepest decline, with the average price of “quality” farmland falling 6.4% in the quarter, the biggest decline since its survey began in 2012. The Chicago Fed said prices for similar land in its district fell 4% from a year ago, the seventh successive quarterly decline. Adjusted for inflation, prices in an area that includes parts of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin fell 5%, the biggest quarterly drop since 1987.

    Not even a recent short-term bounce in commodity prices – driven by China’s now concluded record loan expansion – is cause for optimism. Though some agricultural markets have rallied in recent weeks, prices for corn and wheat are still more than 50% lower than their 2012 peak, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture has projected that net U.S. farm income will fall this year to the lowest level in more than a decade.

    Commodity prices have declined as farmers in the U.S. and elsewhere harvested bumper crops, adding to already generous stockpiles. U.S. farmers have also been hit by the strength of the dollar, which has stymied demand to export their crops.

    Another reason for America’s farmland recession: the drop in land values has been accompanied by deteriorating credit conditions, with more loans taken out to cover farm operations even as repayment rates fell on existing debt.

    It appears that in its scramble to save banks’ from their underwater energy exposure, the Fed forgot all about bailing out the American farmer.  The Kansas City Fed said the weaker credit environment had left many growers unable to pay off loans extended to them in the previous year, forcing them to carry debt into 2016.

    It gets worse: loan-repayment rates fell for the 10th consecutive quarter, which the bank said was the longest run of deteriorating repayment rates since the early 2000s. While farm loan delinquency rates remained low, growers with significant debt may face continuing stress.

    “This most recent uptick in loan demand may be more concerning because it has coincided with a period of falling repayment rates, softening farmland values and increasing collateral requirements,” said the Kansas City Fed in its report.

    * * *

    And then there was the latest JPM report from its 2016 midwest planting tour. Here are some of the key findings:

    We spent the last few days in the Midwest visiting dealers, farmers, and a variety of industry experts. Overall, our sense is that the industry is “healing” but the down-cycle will be long as used inventories remain elevated, used prices are still “in discovery mode”, and farmers are staring at a fourth year of losses and asset write-downs; sentiment improved a little with the USDA’s demand outlook, at least for beans (but that may be short lived). We maintain our negative outlook for US ag fundamentals.

    Among JPM’s other troubling findings is that farmers are not making money at current prices, and rents have started to move down, but not quickly enough; in IA, farmers must alert landlords in writing by September 1 if they want to renegotiate for the following year. Farmers have been buying equipment at auction when they perceive that it is good value, even though they may not need extra equipment; however, dealer used equipment prices continue to decline YoY, and the decline is accelerating as more used equipment is going to auction (at about a 20-30% discount).

    JPM also makes the following key observations:

    • Deere dealer: The Deere dealer we met in Iowa noted that he (uniquely) sold no new equipment for the past 16-18 months in order to reduce used inventory, which peaked at $20MM and is now at $7.5MM (vs. normal of $10MM). At the peak of the cycle he sold 80 tractors and 30-40 combines and his turns were 3.5- 4.0x, whereas now his combine turns are ~1.5x. He was able to sell some used equipment to Mexico but had to liquidate some through auction at a significant loss (up to $100K on a high HP tractor)
    • Titan dealer: At the peak of the cycle this dealer sold 23 combines per year; he sold three in 2015 and has 13 sitting in used inventory (about  three years excess used inventory). He cannot sell new equipment until he sorts out the used equipment inventory (combines in particular), though he noted that he has sold six tractors YTD, more than he managed for all of 2015. Like other dealers we spoke with, Titan dealers are very hesitant to sell used equipment through auction as prices can be up to 25% lower than book value; he would prefer to sell used equipment at a loss rather than write down the value of his entire book.
    • CAT (AGCO) dealer: This dealer noted that his dealership reported $186MM in sales at the peak in 2013, and this year his budget is to deliver $130MM, but he acknowledged that he may not make the budget as he too is struggling with excess used inventory. Unlike the DE dealer who simply stopped selling new equipment, this dealer has charged his sales force with a ratio of used for every new sale (tractors and competitor combines are 2:1 used vs. new, and for Lexion combines (Claas) the ratio is 3:1). He acknowledged that he may be taking a “death by a 1,000 knives” approach that could result in 2017 sales being down again.

    Here is JPM’s summary assessment on US farmer sentiment. It’s not good. 

    The farmers we hosted remain pretty downbeat about the prospect for profits in the 2016/17 crop year, though they did sell most of the 2015/16 crop during the recent rally. Once again this year much of the focus was on rent, which remains elevated, and, while it may be inching lower, farmers in IA need to put in a written request for a re-negotiation by September 1 for 2017/18; those conversations are going to need to be uncomfortable this year. One farmer noted that he has 20+ landlords, so the process can be time consuming and emotionally exhausting. On a separate issue, the farmers noted that Farm Credit requested that farmers write down equipment values by 20% in January; the longer the down-cycle lasts the more stress on their balance sheets, especially for farmers renting a significant portion of their farmland. None of the farmers are rolling equipment right now, but they do not like to have  equipment out of warranty as repair costs can run to $20K out of pocket. Beyond equipment, savings are being made on seeds (by moving to fewer traits or non-GMO), but not enough to break even at current prices.

    1. farmers are still forecasting a loss (for the fourth consecutive year) in 2016/17;
    2. balance sheets are coming under more pressure as equipment values are marked down (particularly farmers with a high proportion of rented land);
    3. renegotiating rents is extraordinarily stressful and time-consuming as most farmers have multiple landlords;
    4. lenders are becoming more risk averse as the cycle extends.

    Finally, for the best indication of just how dire the future is, we look at what those who know the business best are doing in terms of investments.Here is JPM: “Based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, investment in agricultural machinery peaked at $50 billion SAAR in Q4’13 and is now down 58% from peak at $21 billion, about in line with 2002 levels.

    While America was so focused on whether or not there is a recession in the US manufacturing and oil & gas sector, it completely ignored the depression in America’s farming heartland.

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Today’s News 14th May 2016

  • Facebook and Exxon Mobil are both Overvalued Stocks for Different Reasons (Video)

    By EconMatters

     

    XOM is trading as a Bond in this yield chasing QE inspired Central Bank World, and FB is your classic momentum stock. The first lesson of modern investing is that everything is a trade in financial markets. Avoid being the bag holder in either of these two stocks. The day of their demise is merely a calendar event on the investing time clock horizon.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Why Were Texas Game Wardens Just Issued Nuclear Radiation Detectors?

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    After countless reports about the potential for nuclear or radioactive weapons of mass destruction being smuggled into the United States, the State of Texas is has begun to take the threat seriously.

    Via Houston Public Media:

     

    Up and down the Texas Gulf Coast, the state’s game wardens are on the water, looking for people fishing or hunting illegally.  But as we’ve reported, they sometimes come across things like illegal chemical dumpsites and more says Texas Parks and Wildlife’s Tom Harvey.

     

    “Game wardens encounter all kinds of things on their patrols, including a lot of illegal fishing, and this is a new threat we’re gearing up to be able to address,“ Harvey told News 88.7.

     

    That new threat is terrorism. One fear is that terrorists could try to smuggle radioactive material into the country by boat. The Port of Houston has for years had radiation detectors to scan cargo.

     

    So now, besides guns and handcuffs, game wardens will have one more tool.

     

    “We’ve acquired about a hundred devices that allow game wardens to detect radiological or nuclear emissions. These are little devices that can be worn on someone’s belt,” Harvey said.

     

     

    They’re about the size of a cellphone and can help a warden determine if something suspicious is radioactive.  It wouldn’t necessarily have to be connected to terrorism: radioactive materials used in the energy and medical industries can be illegally dumped.

     

    Game wardens began training with the radiation detectors in January and completed a mock exercise to find radioactive packages along the coast.

    In March the Obama administration warned that there were four ways a large-scale nuclear attack on U.S. soil could happen,

    The havoc such an attack could wreak in an urban area such as New York or London is concerning enough that leaders scheduled a special session on the threat during the two-day summit. U.S. officials said the leaders would discuss a hypothetical scenario about a chain of events that could lead to nuclear terrorism.

    And just last month we learned that ISIS-linked terrorists have targeted at least two nuclear power plants in Europe – one in Belgium in the lead up to the terror attacks in Brussels, as well as a cyber attack on a German plant that made it possible for hackers to take control of highly radioactive cooling rods at the facility. Moreover, as far as Europe is concerned, officials report that CBRN weapons (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) have already been smuggled into Europe, suggesting that mass-casualty attacks are in the planning stages.

    The threats to America is equally serious, as officials have reported that terrorists have already been captured attempting to cross into the United States through our southern border. Moreover, in recent years there have been numerous cases of nuclear material capable of being used in dirty bombs being stolen from facilities in Mexico.

    The issue was so serious that the Texas Rangers were dispatched to secure the southern border amid the threat.

    Though ignored by most Americans as an implausible scenario, the fact that DHS recently announced they will be holding a mock poison gas attack in New York suggests that officials are growing more concerned with the potential for a serious attack on key U.S. cities.

    Should a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear attack become reality, the panic would be unprecedented. Large scale evacuations of entire cities or regions would be likely, and thousands could die or be sickened because of a lack of protective equipment against CBRN attacks.

    That terrorists are actively targeting nuclear power plants is a warning sign that should not be taken lightly. The goal is mass casualties, and CBRN devices would be the optimal weapons used.

  • Incompetence Personified: Illinois Has Devolved To One-Off Funding Bills As It Still Can't Pass A Budget

    As Illinois struggles to get its fiscal house in order (good luck with that), it has devolved into funding key programs with one-off stopgap measures rather than approving an overall comprehensive budget. The state remains the only remaining state without a 2016 plan.

    Most recently, lawmakers overwhelmingly approved $700 million to fund social service programs, however, as the Chicago Sun Times reports, the bill is likely to sit on Governor Bruce Rauner’s desk as he tries to push lawmakers to come to an agreement on a balanced budget instead of one-off solutions.

    “The administration remains focused on enacting a truly balanced budget alongside meaningful reforms, and the Governor will continue negotiating in good faith toward a bipartisan agreement” said Rauner spokeswoman Catherine Kelly.

    The bill included enough money to provide about 46% of what social service providers and programs such as Catholic Charities received from the state last year, and lawmakers such as Democrat Greg Harris are pushing to have the money released immediately.

    “This is a $700 million piece of legislation that would help the neediest at the time when they need help the most. This is money that is available to be dispersed immediately.”

    Legislators are haggling over a budget that under its current proposal would increase tax revenues by $5.4 billion by raising personal income tax rates from 3.75% to as much as 4.85%, cut spending by $2.5 billion, and borrow $5 billion in order to pay an expected $10 billion deficit by the time the fiscal year ends July 1.

    All of this is just another example of the state of complete disarray that municipalities, cities, and states are in all across the U.S. Between pension funds going insolvent, states missing budget projections by a billion dollars, and in Illinois’ case, flat out inability to even know where to begin to solve the massive amount of accumulated debt, the pressure is building on Congress to start talking up bailout programs – because right now, helicopter money is literally the only thing that can save everyone from defaulting all at once.

  • Did The Clinton Foundation Give $2 Million To Bill's "Energizer" Mistress?

    At Bill Clinton's behest, a $2 million commitment for Energy Pioneer Solutions was placed on the agenda during a September 2010 conference of the Clinton Global Initiative. As it turns out, the commitment is a bit of an issue…

    At the heart of the issue is the foundation sent funding to a company that had significant ties to the Clinton family according to the WSJ. The IRS website states that any 501(c)(3) should not be operated for the benefit of private interests.

    The WSJ explains the connections

    Energy Pioneer Solutions was founded in 2009 by Scott Kleeb, a Democrat who twice ran for Congress from Nebraska. An internal document from that year showed it as owned 29% by Mr. Kleeb; 29% by Jane Eckert, the owner of an art gallery in Pine Plains, N.Y.; and 29% by Julie Tauber McMahon of Chappaqua, N.Y., a close friend of Mr. Clinton, who also lives in Chappaqua.
     

    Owning 5% each were Democratic National Committee treasurer Andrew Tobias and Mark Weiner, a supplier to political campaigns and former Rhode Island Democratic chairman, both longtime friends of the Clintons.
     

    The Clinton Global Initiative holds an annual conference at which it announces monetary commitments from corporations, individuals or nonprofit organizations to address global challenges—commitments on which it has acted in a matchmaking role. Typically, the commitments go to charities and nongovernmental organizations. The commitment to Energy Pioneer Solutions was atypical because it originated from a private individual who was making a personal financial investment in a for-profit company.

     

    Not only did the Clinton's oversee $2 million being sent to friends at Energy Pioneer Solutions via the foundation, according to the WSJ, Bill also personally endorsed the company to then-Energy Secretary Steven Chu for a federal grant, ultimately leading to a grant in the amount of $812,000. Of course, Chu now says he doesn't remember the conversation. 

    As it is no stranger to having to scramble and do damage control, the foundation has come out with the following narrative:

    Asked about the commitment, foundation officials said, “President Clinton has forged an amazing universe of relationships and friendships throughout his life that endure to this day, and many of those individuals and friends are involved in CGI Commitments because they share a passion for making a positive impact in the world. As opposed to a conflict of interest, they share a common interest.”
     

    A spokesman for Mr. Clinton, Angel Urena, said, “President Clinton counts many CGI participants as friends.” Mrs. Clinton’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.
     

    A Clinton Foundation spokesman, Craig Minassian, called the commitment an instance of “mission-driven investing…in and by for-profit companies,” which he said “is a common practice in the broader philanthropic space, as well as among CGI commitments.” Of thousands of CGI commitments, Mr. Minassian cited three other examples of what he described as mission-driven investing involving a private party and a for-profit company such as Energy Pioneer Solutions.

    Energy Pioneer Solutions has struggled to operate profitably, and an audit found deficiencies in how the company accounted for expenses paid with federal grant money – surprise, surprise, another government funded (and Clinton funded) enterprise that can't make a profit and has lost taxpayer money.

    Energy Pioneer Solutions has struggled to operate profitably. It lost more than $300,000 in 2010 and another $300,000 in the first half of 2011, said records submitted for an Energy Department audit. Mr. Kleeb noted that losses are common at startups.
     

    The audit found deficiencies in how the company accounted for expenses paid with federal grant money, Energy Department records show. The company addressed the deficiencies, and a revised cost proposal was approved in 2011, said an Energy Department spokeswoman, Joshunda Sanders.
     

    Recently, Mr. Kleeb laid off most of his staff, closed his offices, sold a fleet of trucks and changed his business strategy, promising to launch a national effort instead. “We are right now gearing up to start under this new model,” he said.
     

    Asked if Energy Pioneer Solutions has ever broken even, Mr. Kleeb said, “We’re at that stage…We are expanding and doing well. We have partnerships, and it’s good.”

    Partnerships indeed. Speaking of partnerships, there is a connection that is noteworthy in this tangled web of cronyism…

    One of the owners of Energy Pioneer Solutions was Julie Tauber McMahon. She described Bill as a "close family friend" in an interview, but perhaps there is a bit more to that story.

    As the NY Post reports

    The fit, blond mother of three, who lives just minutes from Bill and Hillary Clinton’s home in Chappaqua, West­chester, is the daughter of Joel Tauber, a millionaire donor to the Democratic Party.
     

    McMahon, 54, is rumored to be the woman dubbed “Energizer” by the Secret Service at the Clinton home because of her frequent visits, according to RadarOnline.

     

    Secret Service agents were even given special instructions to abandon usual protocol when the woman came by, according to journalist Ronald Kessler’s tell-all book, “The First Family Detail.”
     

     

    “You don’t stop her, you don’t approach her, you just let her go in,” says the book, based on agents’ accounts.
     

    “Energizer” is described in the book as a charming visitor who sometimes brought cookies to the agents.
     

    The book describes one sun-drenched afternoon when agents took notice of the woman’s revealing attire.
     

    “It was a warm day, and she was wearing a low-cut tank top, and as she leaned over, her breasts were very exposed,” an agent is quoted in the book.
     

    “They appeared to be very perky and very new and full . . . There was no doubt in my mind they were enhanced.”
     

    “Energizer” reportedly timed her arrivals and departures around Hillary Clinton’s schedule.
     

    McMahon has denied in reports having an intimate relationship with Bill Clinton.

    * * *

    While nobody knows for certain if Bill was funding a mistress (which really wouldn't surprise anyone), the fact remains that this is yet another stunning example that cronyism is alive and well.

  • Chomsky: Europe Bows To Its "Washington Masters" On Everything From Snowden To Iran

    Submitted by Claire Bernish via TheAntiMedia.org,

    United States exceptionalism has created a preternaturally excessive number of military installments, deployments, and bases around the world. In point of fact, as David Vine described for the Nation in September 2015:

    “While there are no freestanding foreign bases permanently located in the United States, there are now around 800 US bases in foreign countries. Seventy years after World War II and 62 years after the Korean War, there are still 174 US ‘base sites’ in Germany, 113 in Japan, and 83 in South Korea, according to the Pentagon. Hundreds more dot the planet in around 80 countries, including Aruba and Australia, Bahrain and Bulgaria, Colombia, Kenya, and Qatar, among many other places. Although few Americans realize it, the United States likely has bases in more foreign lands than any other people, nation, or empire in history.”

    It’s commonly accepted that, in terms of economic and political policy, as Germany goes so goes Europe — and as the United States goes, so goes Germany. Essentially, European nations’ historical fealty to whims of the U.S. has created a juggernaut of obligatory policies with other countries, whether or not such dealings ultimately prove to be in Europe’s best interests. According to a U.S. Department of Defense report dated June 2015, over 80,000 troops were stationed in various locations in Europe — including 44,660 in Germany, alone — and those numbers will be bolstered by 3,000 to 5,000 in 2017, “to help countries harden themselves against Russian influence,” as Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter stated in February.

    But as Professor Noam Chomsky explained in an exclusive interview with AcTVism Munich, as the American empire gasps its last breaths, that tide appears to be turning — and Europe, with Germany unofficially stationed at the helm, stands before an open window to escape overbearing U.S. influence.

    “If you go back to the early 50s,” Chomsky explained, “there was always concern that Europe might move in a direction independent of U.S. power. It might become what was called at the time a ‘third force’ in international affairs. The dominant force was the United States, the second force was the junior superpower … the Soviet Union, and there was concern that Europe was, of course, a rich, developed, advanced area that might just move in an independent direction […] In fact, one of the functions of NATO, as is generally understood, was to ensure that Europe would remain under the U.S. aegis, but not move towards an independent direction.”

    One current example of the friction between European countries’ continued capitulation to U.S. interests concerns the vast disparity in perceptions over the Iran nuclear deal, Chomsky noted. While enthusiastic “European ministers of government [and] corporation executives are flocking to Tehran to try to set up deals and arrangements,” Republican presidential candidates, including presumptive nominee Donald Trump, have said they would not follow through on the deal.

    U.S. dominance over policy has even influenced Europe’s response to the controversy over Edward Snowden. As Chomsky explained, a plane transporting Bolivian president Evo Morales was denied passage through European airspace en route to Bolivia — despite the aircraft’s diplomatic immunity — during the time period when Snowden’s whereabouts remained unknown to the U.S. This unprecedented shirking of diplomatic immunity occurred at the behest of the U.S. government, though the plane eventually landed in Austria where it was raided by police — just to find out if the rogue whistleblower happened to be aboard.

    “All of this is kind of pitiful,” Chomsky said. “It’s a revelation of real cowardice in the face of power that the European elites are unwilling to confront — a sign of subordination and a real lack of dignity and integrity, in my view […]

     

    “There are, I think, by now four Latin American countries that offer asylum to Snowden – not one European country. In fact, they won’t even let him cross their borders. Why? Because the master in Washington tells them, ‘we don’t want him to.’ And Snowden, it’s important to recall, performed an enormous service, a patriotic service in fact, to the people of the United States and the world.

    Snowden revealed to the planet the nefarious extent of the U.S. surveillance state — and its true reach both domestically and around the world.

    “That’s what he should have done,” added Chomsky. “That’s the responsibility of a decent citizen.”

     

  • Canaccord Founder Sells $31 Million Vancouver Mansion To Chinese Student

    Everybody loves a good Vancouver real estate horror story. Here is a great one.

    In the endless series of reports about wealthy Chinese oligarchs, billionaires, money launderers, or mere criminals, never have we encountered anything quite like this yet, because according to The Province, the majority owner of this Point Grey mansion located at 4833 Belmont Avenue and which was recently ranked 16th among the most expensive homes in Vancouver, was sold earlier this year by Canaccord founder Peter Brown for a record $31.1 million is a “student,” property records show. A Chinese “student”… of course.

     

    Land title documents list Tian Yu Zhou as having a 99-per-cent interest in the five-bedroom, eight-bathroom, 14,600 square-foot mansion on a 1.7-acre lot at 4833 Belmont Ave. Zhou’s occupation is listed as a “student.”

    The other owner of the property, which boasts sweeping views of the North Shore mountains and Vancouver, is listed as Cuie Feng, a “businesswoman.” Feng has a one-per-cent interest in the property, which was assessed this year as having a total value of about $25.6 million, records show.

    Efforts to reach Zhou and Feng through the lawyer listed on the land title documents were not successful, and realtor Cherry Xu, who reportedly served as the buyer’s agent, did not want to comment on the sale, citing privacy considerations.

    As the Province amusingly puts it, NDP housing critic David Eby said the fact that a student was able to buy one of the most expensive homes in the city contradicts the government’s messaging that “everything is under control in the Vancouver real estate market.”

    Eby said it also links to a theme uncovered in a 2015 study by Andy Yan, an adjunct professor at the University of B.C., which found homemakers and, to a lesser extent, students, are often the listed occupations of the owners of many newly purchased multi-million dollar Vancouver properties.

    “It’s incredibly strange that a student would be able to afford such a luxurious and multi-million-dollar property,” said Eby. “This is part of a trend of homemakers and students mass-buying property. I don’t know how that can be possible with the income of homemakers and students typically have, which is close to zero.”

    We can only hope he was being serious: that would make his statement all the more fun.

    Mortgage documents attached to the land title papers show that a mortgage of $9.9 million was taken out by Zhou and Feng from the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce on April 28. The bi-weekly payments are listed as $17,079.41.

    Now this may be a first: traditionally Chinese kleptocrats pay all cash – what is the point of taking out a mortgage when the whole purpose of buying ridiculously overpriced real estate is to park hot or stolen cash. We will have to mull this one over.

    Where The Province article gets interesting is where Eby suggests that the government’s messaging and slow response to the housing crisis in Metro Vancouver could be because party donors, like Brown, are directly benefiting from the red-hot market.

    According to financial records, Brown has donated $62,500 to the B.C. Liberal Party in the past two years, and Eby further noted that Brown is a longtime Liberal fundraiser.

    “I think we shouldn’t underestimate the connection between the government saying there is no issue with the real estate market in Vancouver at the same time one of their major fundraisers is selling his home to a student for $31 million and significantly over the assessed value,” said Eby. “The government’s donors are directly profiting from this crazy real estate market while a lot of hard-working families are suffering.”

    While the government has been cautious in its approach to tackling the housing issue in Metro Vancouver, saying more data needs to be compiled, some action has been taken.

    “I always think more information is better in helping us understand that nature of what’s happening out there, rather than less,” Premier Christy Clark said Wednesday.

    “Let’s find out how many homes are being purchased in the market by people who aren’t residents of Canada, whoever they may be in the world. I think that information will help us come up with the right solutions.”

    Earlier this week, the government introduced regulations to clamp down on unethical real estate practices, including the legal use of assignment clauses to crank up the final sale price of a property, a practice known as shadow flipping.

    The government also said it will introduce amendments to the property transfer tax forms that will require, as of June 10, buyers of B.C. real estate to include their principal address and whether they are Canadian citizens or permanent residents.

    We are confident absolutely nothing will change and as more Chinese are desperate to park their cash in Canada, soon stories such as this one will become an (even more) everyday occurence.

  • Minimum-Wage Blowback – Wendy's To Employ Self-Service Kiosks At 6,000 Locations

    Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    In direct response to higher wage prices and the firming of commodity prices, Wendy’s is going to install self-service ordering kiosks at 6,000 locations. McDonald’s is expected to follow at a slower pace.

    Investors Business Daily reports Wendy’s Serves Up Big Kiosk Expansion As Wage Hikes Hit Fast Food.

    Wendy’s (WEN) said that self-service ordering kiosks will be made available across its 6,000-plus restaurants in the second half of the year as minimum wage hikes and a tight labor market push up wages.

     

    It will be up to franchisees whether to deploy the labor-saving technology, but Wendy’s President Todd Penegor did note that some franchise locations have been raising prices to offset wage hikes.

     

    McDonald’s (MCD) has been testing self-service kiosks. But Wendy’s, which has been vocal about embracing labor-saving technology, is launching the biggest potential expansion.

     

    All 258 Wendy’s restaurants in California, where the minimum wage rose to $10 an hour this year and will gradually rise to $15, are franchise-operated. Likewise, about 75% of 200-plus restaurants in New York are run by franchisees.

     

    “We are seeing a bit of a softer overall category in April” relative to the past two quarters, Penegor said on an earnings call, implying more of an industrywide trend than an issue specific to Wendy’s.

     

    Penegor said the reason for softer growth was hard to pinpoint, but he listed a cautious consumer, tougher spring weather in the Northeast, and a wider gap between the cost of food at home vs. food away from home as possible contributors.

     

    In addition to self-order kiosks, the company is also getting ready to move beyond the testing phase with labor-saving mobile ordering and mobile payment available systemwide by the end of the year. Yum Brands and McDonald’s already have mobile ordering apps.

    Carl’s Jr. Investing in Machines

    Business Insider reports Fast-food CEO says he’s investing in machines because the government is making it difficult to afford employees.

    The 100% automated restaurant, Eatsa, has inspired the CEO of Carl’s Jr.

     

    The CEO of Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s has visited the fully automated restaurant Eatsa — and it’s given him some ideas on how to deal with rising minimum wages.

     

    “I want to try it,” CEO Andy Puzder told Business Insider of his automated restaurant plans. “We could have a restaurant that’s focused on all-natural products and is much like an Eatsa, where you order on a kiosk, you pay with a credit or debit card, your order pops up, and you never see a person.”

     

    “This is the problem with Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton, and progressives who push very hard to raise the minimum wage,” says Puzder. “Does it really help if Sally makes $3 more an hour if Suzie has no job?”

    Zero Human Interaction Eatsa

    Also consider This is the first fast-food chain in America that requires zero human interaction.

    A new restaurant chain called Eatsa is unlike any fast-food chain we’ve seen before.

     

    The restaurant is almost fully automated, functioning like a vending machine that spits out freshly-prepared quinoa bowls.

     

    When customers enter Eatsa, they order their food at an iPad kiosk.

     

    Then they wait in front of a wall of glass cubbies, where their food will be appear when it’s ready.

     

    Hidden behind the wall of cubbies, kitchen staff prepare the food.

    Positions Open!

    Wendy's Careers

     

    State of Affairs

    Fast food is not cheap. $15 minimum wages do not help.

    It’s easy to dismiss Eatsa. It has 10 stores. But it’s the idea that’s important.

    Wendy’s is adopting a similar model as best it can, en masse.

    Department stores that have massively over-expanded will follow suit.

    None of these trends bode well for store expansion or hiring. Layoffs are on the horizon.

  • China Warns US: "Don't Disturb" Hong Kong Social Order; Threatens "Bad Reaction"

    Over the past few months, tensions have been high between the U.S. and China. Events such as China denying USS John C. Stennis and its escort ships access to a Hong Kong port showed just how strained relations have become between the two countries, and with China's recent comments saying that U.S. activity near the Fiery Cross Reef "threatened China's sovereignty and security interests", one would assume that things couldn't get much worse.

    Alas, that assumption would be wrong. As Reuters reports, China is now accusing the U.S. of trying to "disturb" social order in Hong Kong, something that Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said will "cause Chinese people to go on alert and have a bad reaction."

    Channel NewsAsia has more…

    BEIJING: China's Foreign Ministry on Friday accused unidentified people in the United States of trying to "disturb" social order in Hong Kong, after the U.S. State Department expressed further concern the territory's autonomy was being eroded.
     

    The State Department made the comments in its latest report on the former British colony, released on Wednesday. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that as Hong Kong was a part of China, no other country had a right to interfere in its internal affairs.
     

    "We also remind the United States that certain people on the U.S. side have always wanted to disturb Hong Kong, disturb its socio-economic development, disturb the normal order of its residents' lives, and even use the Hong Kong issue to interfere in China's internal affairs," he told a daily news briefing.
     

    "This can only be futile. The only effect it will have is to cause Chinese people to go on alert and have a bad reaction."
     

    Britain handed Hong Kong back to China in 1997 under agreements that its broad freedoms, way of life and legal system would remain unchanged for 50 years.
     

    Beijing's refusal to grant the former British colony full democracy has embittered a younger generation of activists who launched big protests in 2014.
     

    Political tension has simmered amid occasional incidents of unrest. A riot erupted in the city in February after a dispute between authorities and street vendors.
     

    The United States has repeatedly expressed concern about developments in Hong Kong, including freedom of the press and human rights issues.

    * * *

    So to summarize, the United States is antagonizing Russia, antagonizing China, and doing its very best to generate even further conflict in the Middle East. Perhaps the best indicator of how the economy is doing is not reading FOMC minutes, rather, just pay attention to how much war mongering the U.S. is doing around the world. After all, nothing solves a bad economy like a massive war – right?

  • The Real Oil Limits Story – What Other Researchers Missed

    Submitted by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

    For a long time, a common assumption has been that the world will eventually “run out” of oil and other non-renewable resources. Instead, we seem to be running into surpluses and low prices. What is going on that was missed by M. King Hubbert, Harold Hotelling, and by the popular understanding of supply and demand?

    The underlying assumption in these models is that scarcity would appear before the final cutoff of consumption. Hubbert looked at the situation from a geologist’s point of view in the 1950s to 1980s, without an understanding of the extent to which geological availability could change with higher price and improved technology. Harold Hotelling’s work came out of the conservationist movement of 1890 to 1920, which was concerned about running out of non-renewable resources. Those using supply and demand models have equivalent concerns–too little fossil fuel supply relative to demand, especially when environmental considerations are included.

    Virtually no one realizes that the economy is a self-organized networked system. There are many interconnections within the system. The real situation is that as prices rise, supply tends to rise as well, because new sources of production become available at the higher price. At the same time, demand tends to fall for a variety of reasons:

    • Lower affordability
    • Lower productivity growth
    • Falling relative wages of non-elite workers

    The potential mismatch between amount of supply and demand is exacerbated by the oversized role that debt plays in determining the level of commodity prices. Because the oil problem is one of diminishing returns, adding debt becomes less and less profitable over time. There is a potential for a sharp decrease in debt from a combination of defaults and planned debt reductions, leading to very much lower oil prices, and severe problems for oil producers. Financial institutions tend to be badly affected as well. If a person looks at only past history, the situation looks secure, but it really is not.

    Figure 1. By Merzperson at English Wikipedia - Transferred from en.wikipedia to Commons, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2570936

    Figure 1. By Merzperson at English Wikipedia – Transferred from en.wikipedia to Commons, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2570936

    Substitutes aren’t really helpful; they tend to be high-priced and dependent on the use of fossil fuels, including oil. They cannot possibly operate on their own. They add to the “oversupply at high prices” problem, but don’t really fix the need for low-priced supply.

     

    Why supply tends to rise as prices rise

    For any non-renewable commodity, there are a wide variety of resources that will “sort of” work as substitutes, if the price is high enough. If the price can be raised to a very high level, the funds available will encourage the development of more advanced (and expensive) technology.

    If it is possible to raise the price to a very high level, it is likely that a very large quantity of oil will be available. Figure 1 shows some of the types of oil available:

    Getting sufficient oil out is a price problem

    I got my idea for Figure 2 from a natural gas resource triangle by Stephen Holditch.

     

    Figure 2. Stephen Holdritch's resource triangle for natural gas

    Figure 3. Stephen Holditch’s resource triangle for natural gas

    A similar resource triangle is available for coal (from National Academies Press; Coal Resource, Reserve, and Quality Assessments):

    Figure 3. Coal resources in 1997, based on EIA data. Image from

    Figure 4. Coal resources in 1997, based on EIA data. Image from National Academies Press.

    Because of the availability of an increasing amount of resources, we are likely to get more oil, natural gas, and coal, if prices rise. We associate high prices with scarcity; instead, high prices tend to make a larger quantity of energy product available.

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) has a different way of illustrating the likelihood of huge future oil supply, if prices can only rise high enough.

    Figure 4. Figure 1.4 from International Energy Agency's 2015 World Energy Outlook.

    Figure 5. Figure 1.4 from International Energy Agency’s 2015 World Energy Outlook.

    The implication of this chart is that the IEA believes that oil prices can rise to $300 per barrel, giving the world plenty of oil to extract for many years ahead.

     

    Can consumers really afford very high-priced energy products?

    In my view, the answer is “No!” If oil is high priced, then the many things made with oil will tend to be high priced as well. Wages don’t rise with oil prices; most of us remember this from the oil price run-up of 2003 to 2008.

    Because of this affordability issue, the limit to oil production is really an invisible price limit, represented as a dotted line. We can’t know in advance where this is, so it is easy to assume that it doesn’t exist.

    Figure 4. Resource triangle, with dotted line indicating uncertain financial cut-off.

    Figure 6. Resource triangle, with dotted line indicating uncertain financial cut-off.

    The higher cost of extraction is equivalent to diminishing returns.

    As we are forced to seek out ever more expensive to extract resources, the economy is in some sense becoming less and less efficient. We are devoting more of our human labor and other resources to extracting fossil fuels, and to extracting minerals from ever-lower-quality ores. In some sense, we could just as well be putting these resources into a pit and burying them–they no longer help us grow the rest of the economy. Using resources in this way leaves fewer resources to “grow” the rest of the economy. As a result, we should expect economic contraction when the cost of oil extraction rises.

    In fact, economic contraction seems to happen when oil prices rise, at least for oil importing countries. Economist James Hamilton has shown that 10 out of 11 post-World War II recessions were associated with oil price spikes. A 2004 IEA report says, “.  .  . a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices from $25 to $35 would result in the OECD as a whole losing 0.4% of GDP in the first and second years of higher prices. Inflation would rise by half a percentage point and unemployment would also increase.”

    Energy products play a critical role in the economy.

    Economic activity is based on many kinds of physical changes. For example:

    • Using heat to transform materials from one form to another;
    • Using energy products to help move goods from one place to another;
    • Moving electrons in such a way that light is provided
    • Moving electrons in such a way that Internet transmission can be provided.

    A human being, by himself, exerts only about 100 watts of power. A human being is also quite limited in what he can do; he can provide a little heat, but no light, for example. Energy products are very helpful for making capital goods such as buildings, machines, roads, electricity transmission lines, cars and trucks.

    We can think of energy products, and capital goods made using energy products, as ways of leveraging human energy. If per capita energy consumption increases over time, leveraging of human labor can grow. As a result, humans can become ever more productive–think of new and better machines to help humans do their work. Dips in this leveraging tend to correspond to economic contraction (Figure 7).

    Figure 6. World energy consumption per capita, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2105 data. Year 2015 estimate and notes by G. Tverberg.

    Figure 7. World energy consumption per capita, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2105 data. Year 2015 estimate and notes by G. Tverberg.

     

    To have a growing economy, wages of non-elite workers need to be growing. 

    Our economy is in a sense a “circular economy,” in which non-elite workers (less educated, non-managerial workers) play a pivotal role because they are both producers of goods and potential consumers of the output of the economy. Because there are so many non-elite workers, their demand for homes, cars, and electronic goods plays a critical role in maintaining the total demand of the economy.

    Figure 6. Representation of two major part of economy by author.

    Figure 8. Representation of two major parts of the economy by author.

    If the wages of these non-elite workers are growing, thanks to increased productivity, the economy as a whole can grow. If the wages of these workers are shrinking or are flat (in inflation-adjusted terms), the economy is in trouble. The recycling process cannot work very well.

    If there is not enough economic growth–often caused by not enough growth in energy consumption to leverage human labor–then we tend to get a growing imbalance between the sector on the left with businesses, governments, and elite workers, and the sector on the right, with non-elite workers. Part of this wage imbalance comes from sending jobs to low-wage countries. As jobs are shifted to low-wage countries, the workers of the world increasingly cannot afford the goods that they and other workers are producing.

    Figure 7. Representation by author of balance that occurs.

    Figure 9. Representation by author of imbalance that occurs.

    If the wages of non-elite workers are not rising sufficiently, rising debt can be used to hide this problem for a while. The way this is done is by allowing workers to buy goods at ever-lower interest rates, over ever-longer time periods. This strategy has an endpoint, which we seem to be close to reaching.

    Debt is a key factor in creating an economy that operates using energy.

    A generally overlooked problem of our current system is the fact that we do not receive the benefit of energy products until well after they are used. This is especially the case for energy used to make capital investments, such as buildings, roads, machines, and vehicles. Even education and health care represent energy investments that have benefits long after the investment is made.

    The reason debt (and close substitutes) are needed is because it is necessary to bring forward hoped-for future benefits of energy products to the current period if workers are to be paid. In addition, the use of debt makes it possible to pay for consumer products such as automobiles and houses over a period of years. It also allows factories and other capital goods to be financed over the period they provide their benefits. (See my post Debt: The Key Factor Connecting Energy and the Economy.)

    When debt is used to move forward hoped-for future benefits to the present, oil prices can be higher, as can be the prices of other commodities. In fact, the price of assets in general can be higher. With the higher price of oil, it is possible for businesses to use the hoped-for future benefits of oil to pay current workers. This system works, as long as the price set by this system doesn’t exceed the actual benefit to the economy of the added energy.

    The amount of benefits that oil products provide to the economy is determined by their physical characteristics–for example, how far oil can make a truck move. These benefits can increase a bit over time, with rising efficiency, but in general, physics sets an upper bound to this increase. Thus, the value of oil and other energy products cannot rise without limit.

    Using hoped-for benefits to set oil prices is likely to lead to oil prices that overshoot their maximum sustainable level, and then fall back.

    A debt-based system of setting oil prices is different from what most of us would have considered possible. If wages of non-elite workers had been growing fast enough (Figure 9), increasing debt would not even be needed, because the whole system could grow thanks to the increased buying power of the many non-elite workers. These workers could buy new houses and cars, have more meat in their diet, and travel on international vacations, adding to demand for oil and other energy products, thereby keeping prices up.

    As wages of non-elite workers fall behind, an increasing amount of debt is needed. For the US, the ratio of the increase in debt to the increase in GDP (including the rise in inflation) is as shown in Figure 10:

    Figure 10. United States increase in debt over five year period, divided by increase in GDP (with inflation!) in that five year period. GDP from Bureau of Economic Analysis; debt is non-financial debt, from BIS compilation for all countries.

    Figure 10. United States increase in debt over five-year period, divided by increase in GDP (with inflation!) in that five-year period. GDP from Bureau of Economic Analysis; debt is non-financial debt, from BIS compilation for all countries.

    Thus, the increase in debt has never been less than the corresponding increase in GDP over five-year periods, even when oil prices were low prior to 1970. In general, the pattern would suggest that the higher the oil price, the higher the increase in debt needs to be to generate one dollar of GDP. This is to be expected, if economic growth depends on Btus of energy, and higher prices lead to the need for more debt to cover the purchase of necessary Btus of energy.

    We are reaching a head-on collision between (1) the rising cost of energy production and (2) the falling ability of non-elite workers to pay for this high-priced energy. 

    The head-on collision we are reaching is what causes the potential instability referred to at the beginning of this article, as illustrated in Figure 1. Of course, such a collision has the potential to cause debt defaults, as it becomes impossible to repay debt with interest.

    Figure 11. Repaying loans is easy in a growing economy, but much more difficult in a shrinking economy.

    Figure 11. Repaying loans is easy in a growing economy, but much more difficult in a shrinking economy.

    Turchin and Nefedov in the academic book Secular Cycles analyzed eight agricultural economies that eventually collapsed. The problem that these economies encountered was exactly the same one we are now encountering: falling wages of non-elite workers at the same time that the cost of producing energy products (food, at that time) was rising. Rising costs were often an end result of too many people for the arable land. A workaround could be found, such as building irrigation or adding a larger army to conquer a neighboring land, but it would add costs.

    As the problems of these economies progressed, debt defaults became more of a problem. Governments found it hard to collect enough taxes, because so many of the workers were increasingly impoverished. Often, workers became sufficiently weakened by an inadequate diet that they became vulnerable to epidemics. Governments often collapsed.

    In the economies analyzed by Turchin and Nefedov, food prices temporarily spiked, but it is not clear that this was the final outcome, given the inability of workers to pay the high prices. Debt defaults would tend to further reduce ability to pay. Thus, it would not be surprising if prices ended up low (from lack of demand), rather than high. We know that ancient Babylon is an example of one economy that collapsed. Revelation 18:11-13 seems to describe the situation after Babylon’s collapse as one of lack of demand.

    11 “The merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her because no one buys their cargoes anymore— 12 cargoes of gold, silver, precious stones and pearls; fine linen, purple, silk and scarlet cloth; every sort of citron wood, and articles of every kind made of ivory, costly wood, bronze, iron and marble; 13 cargoes of cinnamon and spice, of incense, myrrh and frankincense, of wine and olive oil, of fine flour and wheat; cattle and sheep; horses and carriages; and human beings sold as slaves.

    Other parts of the oil limits story that researchers have missed

    As I have previously mentioned, most researchers begin with the view that soon there will be a problem with energy scarcity. The real issue that tends to bring the system down is related, but it is fairly different. It is the fact that as we use energy, the system necessarily generates entropy. This entropy takes the form of rising debt and increased pollution. It is these entropy-related issues, rather than a shortage of energy products per se, that tends to bring the system down. See my post, Our economic growth system is reaching limits in a strange way.

    We could, in theory, fix our problems by adding infinite debt at the same time that wages of non-elite workers tend toward zero. We could then use this additional debt to fight pollution problems and pay all of the workers. All of us know that this solution would not work in the real world, however.

    The two-sided economy I have described in Figures 8 and 9 is one part of our problem. There is a popular saying, “We pay each other’s wages.” Unfortunately, paying each other’s wages does not work well, if the wage level of elite workers differs too much from the wage level of the non-elite workers. A worker making $7.50 per hour in a part-time job is not going to be able to pay the wages of a surgeon making $300,000 per year, no matter how an insurance policy is designed to spread costs evenly. A worker in India or Africa will not be able to afford goods made by human workers in the United States, because of wage differences.

    Governments can try to fix the problem of non-elite workers getting too small a share of the output of the system, but this is not easy to do. The real problem is that the system as a whole is not producing enough goods and services. This happens because the high cost of energy extraction (plus related issues–pollution control; need for more education for workers; need for ever-larger government and more elite workers) is removing too many resources from the system. The result is that the economy as a whole tends to grow ever more slowly. The quantity of goods and services produced by the economy does not rise very rapidly. When there are not enough goods produced in total, non-elite workers tend to find that their allocation has been reduced.

    If governments attempt to add debt to fix the problems with the system, the addition of debt tends to raise asset prices on the left side of Figures 8 and 9. Unfortunately, the additional debt usually has little impact on the wages of non-elite workers (that is, the right hand part of the system).

    Governments have talked about minimum income programs to raise incomes of those who are not elite workers. Whether or not this approach can work depends on many things–how much additional debt can be added to the system; whether this debt will actually raise the total amount of goods and services produced; how tolerant those in the left-hand side of Figures 8 and 9 are of losing their share of goods and services; the impact on relative currency levels.

    Research involving Energy Returned on Energy Investment (EROEI) ratios for fossil fuels is a frequently used approach for evaluating prospective energy substitutes, such as wind turbines and solar panels. Unfortunately, this ratio only tells part of the story. The real problem is declining return on human labor for the system as a whole–that is, falling inflation adjusted wages of non-elite workers. This could also be described as falling EROEI–falling return on human labor. Declining human labor EROEI represents the same problem that fish swimming upstream have, when pursuit of food starts requiring so much energy that further upstream trips are no longer worthwhile.

    Falling fossil fuel EROEI is a contributor to falling EROEI with respect to human labor, but there are other contributors as well (Figure 12). (My list is probably not exhaustive.)

    Figure 12. Authors' depiction of changes to workers share of output of economy, as costs keep rising for other portions of the economy keep rising.

    Figure 12. Author’s depiction of changes to workers’ share of output of economy, as costs keep rising for other portions of the economy.

    If our problem is a shortage of fossil fuels, fossil fuel EROEI analysis is ideal for determining how to best leverage our small remaining fossil fuel supply. For each type of fossil fuel evaluated, the fossil fuel EROEI calculation determines the amount of energy output from a given quantity of fossil fuel inputs. If a decision is made to focus primarily on the energy products with the highest EROEI ratios, then our existing fossil fuel supply can be used as sparingly as possible.

    If our problem isn’t really a shortage of fossil fuels, EROEI is much less helpful. In fact, the EROEI calculation strips out the timing over which the energy return is made, even though this may vary greatly. The delay (and thus needed amount of debt) is likely to be greatest for those energy products where large front-end capital expenditures are required. Nuclear would tend to be a problem in this regard; so would wind and solar.

    To evaluate the extent to which a given energy product tends to raise debt levels, a better approach might be to look at debt levels directly. Another measure might be to compare the required system-wide capital expenditures for a particular purpose, for example, to provide sufficient non-intermittent electricity for the state of California over a period of say, 50 years, using different electricity generation scenarios.

    Our academic system of inquiry, with its peer reviewed literature system, has let us down.

    Our peer reviewed academic system is not telling this story. Part of the problem is that this is a difficult story. It has taken me most of the last ten years to figure it out.

    Part of the problem with our academic system seems to be excessive reliance on past analyses. Once one direction has been set, it is hard to change. Another part of the problem is that the focus of each researcher tends to be quite narrow. The result can be that it is hard to “see the forest for the trees.”

    Furthermore, politicians and academic publishers tend to “push” results in the direction of a desired outcome. Grant money goes to researchers who follow the government-preferred fields of inquiry; publishers prefer books that are not too alarming to students.

    I am coming at this issue from “out in left field.” I don’t have a Ph.D., although I am a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society, which many would consider similar. I also have an M. S. in Mathematics. I do not work in a university setting. I do not have a strong background in subjects a person might expect, such as geology, economic theory, or physics. I do have a fair amount of practical experience with financial modeling from my actuarial background, however.

    My approach is very different from that of most researchers. I come to the problem from the point of view of how a finite world might be expected to operate. I write most of my articles on the Internet, where I get the benefit of comments from readers. Many of these commenters point me in the direction of articles or books I should read, or raise additional issues I should consider.

    Over the years, I have become acquainted with many researchers in related fields. These people have generally reached out to me–invited me to speak at their conferences, or corresponded with me about issues they considered important. As a result of this collaboration, I have been able to put together a more complete story than others.

    I have stayed away from publishers and funding sources that might try to influence what I say. I have not been taking donations, and do not run ads on my website. The story is one that needs to be told, but it easily gets distorted if the person telling the story is influenced by what will generate the largest donations, or the most grant money.

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Today’s News 13th May 2016

  • Arizona Governor Ducey Vetoes Gold

    by Keith Weiner

     

    In my testimony in support of the gold legal tender bill this year, I discussed failing pension funds. Retirees who count on their pension checks are being told that their monthly check will be reduced by up to 60%. This is devastating to them, obviously. What isn’t obvious is the cause. In the news coverage of this, the angry pensioners are blaming the union, the fund manager, and Wall Street in general.

    None of them point the finger where it needs to be pointed. The Fed has centrally planned our interest rate downwards, ever downwards, for 35 years. Now a 10-year bond pays a mere 1.7 percent interest. Pension funds are designed to invest and earn a real return on the money collected from workers’ paychecks. This breaks down when the interest rate collapses.

    There is no cure for zero interest rates (and negative in Europe and Japan). The central banks have created a monster, a Frankenstein that is now ravaging the economy and especially those who depend on fixed income.

    It is no longer possible to earn a yield on paper money, without taking undue risk of precisely the sort that retirement funds should not take.

    The only antidote to zero yield on paper is a positive yield on gold.

    I explained to the legislators that this bill would not fix the problem in itself. It is a necessary but not sufficient step.

    I made a different argument to Governor Ducey. Most legislation creates winners and losers. Those who will be hurt by a new law of course lobby against it, and may become enemies of the governor for signing it. This bill created no losers. No one would be hurt by recognizing gold as money. It would have been good for the state, adding jobs, and even tax revenue.

    Unpersuaded by either the plight of the pensioners or the prospect of business growth in Arizona, Ducey vetoed gold. This is his second time to shoot down gold.

    I have just two points to make about this. One, let’s stop perpetuating the myth that Republicans—or even pro-business Republicans as Ducey brands himself—are for gold. This is a big reason cited by Democrats for why they are against gold.

    Two, Governor Ducey knew he could get away with this veto because few people care. While our monetary system drowns under zero interest and runaway debt, people are worried about the Kardashians and the gender of Bruce-now-Caitlyn Jenner.

    You had better start letting your government know that you want to start removing the roadblocks and start moving towards the only honest money: gold. No one knows how much time you have, but it is not that long.

  • 'Guccifer' And The Kremlin's 20,000 Hacked Emails – In The Eye Of Hillary's Perfect Storm

    Submitted by Andrew Napolitano via LewRockwell.com,

    The bad legal news for Hillary Clinton continued to cascade upon her presidential hopes during the past week in what has amounted to a perfect storm of legal misery. Here is what happened.

    Last week, Mrs. Clinton’s five closest advisors when she was Secretary of State, four of whom remain close to her and have significant positions in her presidential campaign, were interrogated by the FBI. These interrogations were voluntary, not under oath, and done in the presence of the same legal team which represented all five aides.

    The atmosphere was confrontational, as the purpose of the interrogations is to enable federal prosecutors and investigators to determine whether these five are targets or witnesses. Stated differently, the feds need to decide if they should charge any of these folks as part of a plan to commit espionage, or if they will be witnesses on behalf of the government should there be such a prosecution; or witnesses for Mrs. Clinton.

    In the same week, a federal judge ordered the same five persons to give videotaped testimony in a civil lawsuit against the State Department which once employed them in order to determine if there was a “conspiracy” — that’s the word used by the judge — in Mrs. Clinton’s office to evade federal transparency laws. Stated differently, the purpose of these interrogations is to seek evidence of an agreement to avoid the Freedom of Information Act requirements of storage and transparency of records, and whether such an agreement, if it existed, was also an agreement to commit espionage — the removal of state secrets from a secure place to a non-secure place.

    Also earlier this week, the State Department revealed that it cannot find the emails of Bryan Pagliano for the four years that he was employed there. Who is Bryan Pagliano? He is the former information technology expert, employed by the State Department to problem shoot Mrs. Clinton’s entail issues.

    Pagliano was also personally employed by Mrs. Clinton. She paid him $5,000 to migrate her regular State Department email account and her secret State Department email account from their secure State Department servers to her personal, secret, non-secure server in her home in Chappaqua, New York. That was undoubtedly a criminal act. Pagliano either received a promise of non-prosecution or an actual order of immunity from a federal judge. He is now the government’s chief witness against Mrs. Clinton.

    It is almost inconceivable that all of his emails have been lost. Surely this will intrigue the FBI, which has reportedly been able to retrieve the emails Mrs. Clinton attempted to wipe from her server.

    While all of this has been going on, intelligence community sources have reported about a below the radar screen, yet largely known debate in the Kremlin between the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Russian Intelligence Services. They are trying to come to a meeting of the minds to determine whether the Russian government should release some 20,000 of Mrs. Clinton’s emails that it obtained either by hacking her directly or by hacking into the email of her confidante, Sid Blumenthal.

    As if all this wasn’t enough bad news for Mrs. Clinton in one week, the FBI learned last week from the convicted international hacker, who calls himself Guccifer, that he knows how the Russians came to possess Mrs. Clinton’s emails; and it is because she stored, received and sent them from her personal, secret, non-secure server.

    Mrs. Clinton has not been confronted publicly and asked for an explanation of her thoughts about the confluence of these events, but she has been asked if the FBI has reached out to her. It may seem counter-intuitive, but in white collar criminal cases, the FBI gives the targets of its investigations an opportunity to come in and explain why the target should not be indicted.

    This is treacherous ground for any target, even a smart lawyer like Mrs. Clinton. She does not know what the feds know about her. She faces a damned-if-she-does and damned-if-she-doesn’t choice here.

    Any lie and any materially misleading statement — and she is prone to both — made to the FBI can form the basis for an independent criminal charge against her. This is the environment that trapped Martha Stewart. Hence, the standard practice among experienced counsel is to decline interviews by the folks investigating their clients.

    But Mrs. Clinton is no ordinary client. She is running for president. She lies frequently. We know this because, when asked if the FBI has reached out to her for an interview, she told reporters that neither she nor her campaign had heard from the FBI; but she couldn’t wait to talk to the agents.

    That is a mouthful, and the FBI knows it. First, the FBI does not come calling upon her campaign or even upon her. The Department of Justice prosecutors will call upon her lawyers — and that has already been done, and Mrs. Clinton knows it. So her statements about the FBI not calling her or the campaign were profoundly misleading, and the FBI knows that.

    Mrs. Clinton’s folks are preparing for the worst. They have leaked nonsense from “U.S. officials” that the feds have found no intent to commit espionage on the part of Mrs. Clinton. Too bad these officials — political appointees, no doubt — skipped or failed Criminal Law 101. The government need not prove intent for either espionage or for lying to federal agents.

    And it prosecutes both crimes very vigorously.

  • A Little Market Insight Into How The Game Is Played (Video)

    By EconMatters

     

    Every Game involves learning the rules of the game in order to be successful, the financial markets are the ultimate 4 dimensional futuristic chess game. There are different levels operating within the financial markets, the Game within the Game if you will. The Power Players at the top of the Food Chain run the show all things being equal.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Washington's Military Addiction (And The Ruins Still To Come)

    Submitted by Tom Engelhardt via TomDispatch.com,

    There are the news stories that genuinely surprise you, and then there are the ones that you could write in your sleep before they happen. Let me concoct an example for you:

    “Top American and European military leaders are weighing options to step up the fight against the Islamic State in the Mideast, including possibly sending more U.S. forces into Iraq, Syria, and Libya, just as Washington confirmed the second American combat casualty in Iraq in as many months.”

    Oh wait, that was actually the lead sentence in a May 3rd Washington Times piece by Carlo Muñoz.  Honestly, though, it could have been written anytime in the last few months by just about anyone paying any attention whatsoever, and it surely will prove reusable in the months to come (with casualty figures altered, of course).  The sad truth is that across the Greater Middle East and expanding parts of Africa, a similar set of lines could be written ahead of time about the use of Special Operations forces, drones, advisers, whatever, as could the sorry results of making such moves in [add the name of your country of choice here].   

    Put another way, in a Washington that seems incapable of doing anything but worshiping at the temple of the U.S. military, global policymaking has become a remarkably mindless military-first process of repetition It’s as if, as problems built up in your life, you looked in the closet marked “solutions” and the only thing you could ever see was one hulking, over-armed soldier, whom you obsessively let loose, causing yet more damage. 

    How Much, How Many, How Often, and How Destructively 

    In Iraq and Syria, it’s been mission creep all the way.  The B-52s barely made it to the battle zone for the first time and were almost instantaneously in the air, attacking Islamic State militants.  U.S. firebases are built ever closer to the front lines.  The number of special ops forces continues to edge up.  American weapons flow in (ending up in god knows whose hands).  American trainers and advisers follow in ever increasing numbers, and those numbers are repeatedly fiddled with to deemphasize how many of them are actually there.  The private contractors begin to arrive in numbers never to be counted.  The local forces being trained or retrained have their usual problems in battle.  American troops and advisers who were never, never going to be “in combat” or “boots on the ground” themselves now have their boots distinctly on the ground in combat situations.  The first American casualties are dribbling in.  Meanwhile, conditions in tottering Iraq and the former nation of Syria grow ever murkier, more chaotic, and less amenable by the week to any solution American officials might care for.

    And the response to all this in present-day Washington?

    You know perfectly well what the sole imaginable response can be: sending in yet more weapons, boots, air power, special ops types, trainers, advisers, private contractors, drones, and funds to increasingly chaotic conflict zones across significant swaths of the planet.  Above all, there can be no serious thought, discussion, or debate about how such a militarized approach to our world might have contributed to, and continues to contribute to, the very problems it was meant to solve. Not in our nation’s capital, anyway.

    The only questions to be argued about are how much, how many, how often, and how destructively.  In other words, the only “antiwar” position imaginable in Washington, where accusations of weakness or wimpishness are a dime a dozen and considered lethal to a political career, is how much less of more we can afford, militarily speaking, or how much more of somewhat less we can settle for when it comes to militarized death and destruction.  Never, of course, is a genuine version of less or a none-at-all option really on that “table” where, it’s said, all policy options are kept.

    Think of this as Washington’s military addiction in action.  We’ve been watching it for almost 15 years without drawing any of the obvious conclusions.  And lest you imagine that “addiction” is just a figure of speech, it isn’t.  Washington’s attachment — financial, tactical, and strategic — to the U.S. military and its supposed solutions to more or less all problems in what used to be called “foreign policy” should by now be categorized as addictive.  Otherwise, how can you explain the last decade and a half in which no military action from Afghanistan to Iraq, Yemen to Libya worked out half-well in the long run (or even, often enough, in the short run), and yet the U.S. military remains the option of first, not last, resort in just about any imaginable situation?  All this in a vast region in which failed states are piling up, nations are disintegrating, terror insurgencies are spreading, humongous population upheavals are becoming the norm, and there are refugee flows of a sort not seen since significant parts of the planet were destroyed during World War II.

    Either we’re talking addictive behavior or failure is the new success.

    Keep in mind, for instance, that the president who came into office swearing he would end a disastrous war and occupation in Iraq is now overseeing a new war in an even wider region that includes Iraq, a country that is no longer quite a country, and Syria, a country that is now officially kaput.  Meanwhile, in the other war he inherited, Barack Obama almost immediately launched a military-backed “surge” of U.S. forces, the only real argument being over whether 40,000 (or even as many as 80,000) new U.S. troops would be sent into Afghanistan or, as the “antiwar” president finally decided, a mere 30,000 (which made him an absolute wimp to his opponents).  That was 2009.  Part of that surge involved an announcement that the withdrawal of American combat forces would begin in 2011.  Seven years later, that withdrawal has once again been halted in favor of what the military has taken to privately calling a “generational approach” — that is, U.S. forces remaining in Afghanistan into at least the 2020s.

    The military term “withdrawal” may, however, still be appropriate even if the troops are staying in place.  After all, as with addicts of any sort, the military ones in Washington can’t go cold turkey without experiencing painful symptoms of withdrawal.  In American political culture, these manifest themselves in charges of “weakness” when it comes to “national security” that could prove devastating in the next election.  That’s why those running for office compete with one another in over-the-top descriptions of what they will do to enemies and terrorists (from acts of torture to carpet-bombing) and in even more over-the-top promises of “rebuilding” or “strengthening” what’s already the largest, most expensive military on the planet, a force better funded at present than those of at least the next seven nations combined.

    Such promises, the bigger the better, are now a necessity if you happen to be a Republican candidate for president.  The Democrats have a lesser but similar set of options available, which is why even Bernie Sanders only calls for holding the Pentagon budget at its present staggering level or for the most modest of cuts, not for reducing it significantly.  And even when, for instance, the urge to rein in military expenses did sweep Washington as part of an overall urge to cut back government expenses, it only resulted in a half-secret slush fund or “war budget” that kept the goodies flowing in.

    These should all be taken as symptoms of Washington’s military addiction and of what happens when the slightest signs of withdrawal set in.  The U.S. military is visibly the drug of choice in the American political arena and, as is only appropriate for the force that has, since 2002, funded, armed, and propped up the planet’s largest supplier of opium, once you’re hooked, there’s no shaking it.

    Hawkish Washington

    Recently, in the New York Times Magazine, journalist Mark Landler offered a political portrait entitled “How Hillary Clinton Became a Hawk.”  He laid out just how the senator and later secretary of state remade herself as, essentially, a military groupie, fawning over commanders or former commanders ranging from then-General David Petraeus to Fox analyst and retired general Jack Keane; how, that is, she became a figure, even on the present political landscape, notable for her “appetite for military engagement abroad” (and as a consequence, well-defended against Republican charges of “weakness”).

    There’s no reason, however, to pin the war-lover or “last true hawk” label on her alone, not in present-day Washington.  After all, just about everyone there wants a piece of the action.  During their primary season debates, for instance, a number of the Republican candidates spoke repeatedly about building up the U.S. Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean, while making that already growing force sound like a set of decrepit barges.

    To offer another example, no presidential candidate these days could afford to reject the White House-run drone assassination program.  To be assassin-in-chief is now considered as much a part of the presidential job description as commander-in-chief, even though the drone program, like so many other militarized foreign policy operations these days, shows little sign of reining in terrorism despite the number of “bad guys” and terror “leaders” it kills (along with significant numbers of civilian bystanders).  To take Bernie Sanders as an example — because he’s as close to an antiwar candidate as you’ll find in the present election season — he recently put something like his stamp of approval on the White House drone assassination project and the “kill list” that goes with it.

    Mind you, there is simply no compelling evidence that the usual military solutions have worked or are likely to work in any imaginable sense in the present conflicts across the Greater Middle East and Africa.  They have clearly, in fact, played a major role in the creation of the present disaster, and yet there is no place at all in our political system for genuinely antiwar figures (as there was in the Vietnam era, when a massive antiwar movement created space for such politics).  Antiwar opinions and activities have now been driven to the peripheries of the political system along with a word like, say, “peace,” which you will be hard-pressed to find, even rhetorically, in the language of “wartime” Washington.

    The Look of “Victory”

    If a history were to be written of how the U.S. military became Washington’s drug of choice, it would undoubtedly have to begin in the Cold War era.  It was, however, in the prolonged moment of triumphalism that followed the Soviet Union’s implosion in 1991 that the military gained its present position of unquestioned dominance.

    In those days, people were still speculating about whether the country would reap a “peace dividend” from the end of the Cold War. If there was ever a moment when the diversion of money from the U.S. military and the national security state to domestic concerns might have seemed like a no-brainer, that was it.  After all, except for a couple of rickety “rogue states” like North Korea or Saddam Hussein's Iraq, where exactly were this country’s enemies to be found?  And why should such a muscle-bound military continue to gobble up tax dollars at such a staggering rate in a reasonably peaceable world?

    In the decade or so that followed, however, Washington’s dreams turned out to run in a very different direction — toward a “war dividend” at a moment when the U.S. had, by more or less universal agreement, become the planet’s “sole superpower.”  The crew who entered the White House with George W. Bush in a deeply contested election in 2000 had already been mainlining the military drug for years.  To them, this seemed a planet ripe for the taking.  When 9/11 hit, it loosed their dreams of conquest and control, and their faith in a military that they believed to be unstoppable.  Of course, given the previous century of successful anti-imperial and national independence movements, anyone should have known that, no matter the armaments at hand, resistance was an inescapable reality on Planet Earth.

    Thanks to such predictable resistance, the drug-induced imperial dreamscape of the Busheviks would prove a fantasy of the first order, even if, in that post-9/11 moment, it passed for bedrock (neo)realism.  If you remember, the U.S. was to “take the gloves off” and release a military machine so beyond compare that nothing would be capable of standing in its path.  So the dream went, so the drug spoke.  Don’t forget that the greatest military blunder (and crime) of this century, the invasion of Iraq, wasn’t supposed to be the end of something, but merely its beginning.  With Iraq in hand and garrisoned, Washington was to take down Iran and sweep up what Russian property from the Cold War era still remained in the Middle East.  (Think: Syria.) 

    A decade and a half later, those dreams have been shattered, and yet the drug still courses through the bloodstream, the military bands play on, and the march to… well, who knows where… continues.  In a way, of course, we do know where (to the extent that we humans, with our limited sense of the future, can know anything).  In a way, we’ve already been shown a spectacle of what “victory” might look like once the Greater Middle East is finally “liberated” from the Islamic State.

    The descriptions of one widely hailed victory over that brutal crew in Iraq — the liberation of the city of Ramadi by a U.S.-trained elite Iraqi counterterrorism force backed by artillery and American air power — are devastating.  Aided and abetted by Islamic State militants igniting or demolishing whole neighborhoods of that city, the look of Ramadi retaken should give us a grim sense of where the region is heading. Here’s how the Associated Press recently described the scene, four months after the city fell:

    This is what victory looks like…: in the once thriving Haji Ziad Square, not a single structure still stands. Turning in every direction yields a picture of devastation. A building that housed a pool hall and ice cream shops — reduced to rubble. A row of money changers and motorcycle repair garages — obliterated, a giant bomb crater in its place. The square’s Haji Ziad Restaurant, beloved for years by Ramadi residents for its grilled meats — flattened. The restaurant was so popular its owner built a larger, fancier branch across the street three years ago. That, too, is now a pile of concrete and twisted iron rods.

     

    “The destruction extends to nearly every part of Ramadi, once home to 1 million people and now virtually empty.”

    Keep in mind that, with oil prices still deeply depressed, Iraq essentially has no money to rebuild Ramadi or anyplace else. Now imagine, as such “victories” multiply, versions of similar devastation spreading across the region. 

    In other words, one likely end result of the thoroughly militarized process that began with the invasion of Iraq (if not of Afghanistan) is already visible: a region shattered and in ruins, filled with uprooted and impoverished people.  In such circumstances, it may not even matter if the Islamic State is defeated.  Just imagine what Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city and still in the Islamic State's hands, will be like if, someday, the long-promised offensive to liberate it is ever truly launched.  Now, try to imagine that movement itself destroyed, with its “capital,” Raqqa, turned into another set of ruins, and remind me: What exactly is likely to emerge from such a future nightmare?  Nothing, I suspect, that is likely to cheer up anyone in Washington.

    And what should be done about all this?  You already know Washington’s solution — more of the same — and breaking such a cycle of addiction is difficult even under the best of circumstances.  Unfortunately, at the moment there is no force, no movement on the American scene that could open up space for such a possibility.  No matter who is elected president, you already know more or less what American “policy” is going to be.

    But don’t bother to blame the politicians and national security nabobs in Washington for this.  They’re addicts.  They can’t help themselves.  What they need is rehab.  Instead, they continue to run our world.  Be suitably scared for the ruins still to come.

  • Here Come A Lot Of Angry Teamsters: One Of America's Largest Pension Funds Demands A Taxpayer Bailout

    Over the past few months, we have covered the unfolding saga (here and here) of the Central States Pension Fund, which handles retirement benefits for current and former Teamster union truck drivers across various states including Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, New York, and Minnesota, and is one of the largest pension funds in the nation, all the way through Kenneth Feinberg’s rejection of the proposal to cut benefits on behalf of the Treasury.

    When the proposal was rejected, we said that the final resolution will be in the form of an inevitable taxpayer-funded bailout

    If the Treasury won’t allow any pension cuts, and the government created safety net won’t be there to keep the benefits flowing, how will the cash continue to flow to members? With the precedent now set by the Treasury that no cuts will be allowed, the answer will likely come in the form of a massive bailout.

    As it turns out, that is precisely what fund director Thomas Nyhan believes as well. Nyhan said the rejection means the CSPF likely won’t be able to offer another proposed fix without getting funding from Congress, either directly or through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.

    However with the PBGC also on its way to insolvency, and unable to shoulder the additional burden in world of zero and negative rates, that leaves us with… drum roll please… the US taxpayers, aka Congress, footing the bill.

    “There are only two solutions. Either the plan receives more money or has to have fewer benefits. I’m hopeful that come probably 2017, we can actually all get to work on something that can provide a solution. If there is no legislation at any time, we’re going to end up going to insolvency.” Nyhan said. 

    The full-court press is now on, as now everyone involved is calling on congress to step in. Visitors to CSPF’s website this morning were greeed with a banner directing to a rescue plan website.

    Before you could enter the rescue site a pop-up message is shown, simply saying that since congress effectively shut down the proposal, they can now stand up and pass legislation to bail the fund out.

    Central States strongly urges these members to act now to pass legislation that protects the pension benefits of the over 400,000 participants of Central States Pension Fund”

     

    With the Treasury denying the possibility of pension cuts, the ball is now in Congress’ court to initiate a bailout.

    When it does, because it will, the flood gates will be open for the rest of the insolvent funds to come knocking with their hands out, and we can formally welcome the arrival of helicopter money – whether Yellen wants it or not – in the United States.

     

    What follows is Tom Nyhan testifying before congress back in 2013, laying it out in very plain terms that without funding, or significant benefit cuts, the game is over.

    “Unless the fund substantially reduces its liabilities, or receives a large influx of assets, it’s projected become insolvent within ten or fifteen years, and at this point our options are very limited.”

     

     

    Nobody listened, and now – in this bold new age of pension fund crushing zero and negative interest rates – it is game over.

  • OPEC Politics: Russian King, Iranian Crown Prince?

    Submitted by Eugen von Bohm-Bawek via Bawerk.net,

    Another month, another OPEC meeting beckons for 2nd June. But unlike typical meetings on the Danube (let alone dust filled haze of Doha), the producer group might just have a new King in town. It comes in the form of Russia; the number one global producer that’s not even technically a member of the cartel. Confused? Don’t be. The argument is quite simple.

    Iran and Russia Oil Production

    Unlike Doha where the outgoing Saudi Oil Minister, Ali Naimi was lining up a Saudi led deal to leave Iran outside the tent as the odd man out refusing to join the 17 country ‘freeze’, this time round, it’s very likely Russia will come back to the table with exactly the same deal, but one they’ve directly brokered with Iran, where the Islamic Republic is conveniently claiming they’ve already hit the magic 4mb/d production targets to bring a ‘freeze agreement’ back into play. Rest assured, if Russia and Iran are on the same page, everyone else will ‘sign on the line’ given their current fiscal difficulties where every petro-dollar counts for self-preservation purposes. That potentially leaves Saudi Arabia outside the ‘freezing tent’ as the latest renegade of the petro-state world – or worse still for Riyadh – signing up to a retro-engineered Russo-Iranian deal, where Saudi Arabia has conceded strategic leadership of the producer.

    No matter how much Saudi screams and shouts their previous intransigence brought Iran to the table, this is no longer their deal to sell. If Putin goes in for the kill in Vienna, strategic control of the producer group has effectively passed to Moscow, at least on an interim basis. On all fronts, this is entirely up to the Kremlin how they want to spin things. Not only does a Russo-Iranian deal make sense for a ‘resurgent’ Moscow playing the OPEC ‘King’; giving Iran a geopolitical leg up to become the number one ‘cartel princeling’ makes sense for broader Russian geo-strategic interests. Iran remains the most vital co-ordinate on Mr. Putin’s post-Soviet map.

    No doubt that will put a wry smile Mr. Naimi’s face given the Kingdom had its chance to remain the OPEC lynchpin in Doha, but opted to bump off the old man for internal power grabs instead. But we still need to be very careful to strip out what remain two totally separate debates here around OPEC political theatrics on the one hand vs. any actual market impact any so called freeze would have on the other. Unsurprisingly, we expect exactly the same Doha bluff to come through in Vienna, in what’s essentially a ‘license to pump’ agreement all round.

    Kuwait will claim it can do 3.2mb/d; Iraq will keep pitching 4.8mb/d;

     

    Venezuela will ‘hold firm’ at 2.6mb/d. All numbers grounded in political fantasies, not physical realities.

     

    Most importantly, Iran’s probably not quite back at 4mb/d, which ironically reinforces why a June freeze agreement remains absolutely ‘no regrets’ for the Islamic Republic to game. Claim 4mb/d targets are hit; keep making incremental gains over the next few months; but do so scoring lots of diplomatic points against Saudi Arabia along the way.

     

    To cap things off, Russia will obviously pitch its tent towards 11.5mb/d given Moscow’s currently ramming through tax tweaks to keep production at 11.2mb/d.

    Everyone gets to pump. Nobody has to ‘formally’ cheat. The price doesn’t really go anywhere, beyond a short term Viennese waltz. But most of all, it leaves Saudi Arabia with a major petro-diplomacy decision to make: Either accept it’s no longer calling the OPEC shots when it comes to producer ‘co-operation’ or completely bulk at Russo-Iranian overtures, and put their head back in the volumetric sands to ramp as far and fast as they can. OPEC gets left in its wake.

    Unfortunately for the Kingdom, that’s the real rub here: It’s far from clear Riyadh still holds the volumes based crown either in OPEC. For all the noise coming out of the Kingdom they can do 11.5mb/d, 12mb/d, 12.5mb/d or even ‘20mb/d’ if they ‘wanted to’, the acid test will come over the summer months when domestic demand will be through the roof. Unless everyone sees ‘total’ Saudi production going well above 11mb/d to maintain its stakes in the volumes game, the working assumption the Kingdom can always pump at will simply isn’t credible. If the ‘King’s dead so be it, but Riyadh should know better than anyone else, there’s also someone willing to take your place. Odds on Russia will wear that regal crown, at least for short term political posturing. While Iran can assume its logical role as the new Crown Prince.

  • Fed Nemesis & Mysterious Treasury Bond Buyer Exposed

    The monotonous drone from The Eccles Building continues to pontificate that bond bulls are fools but stock buyers are the smart ones for the miracle hockey-stick of Keynesian dreams is just around the corner and rate-hikes right along with it. Three decades of factual dismissal of this bullshit propaganda are of course proving that line of reasoning simply false and while Rosengren, Bullard, et al. bloviate that 'investors' should be selling bonds, it is shockingly ironic that their bond-buying nemesis is Mrs. Watanabe in the land of failed Keynesian policy piling into Treasuries at a record pace since The BoJ went NIRP.

    As UBS Rate strategists detail, since the BoJ launched its negative interest rate policy, Japanese investors have been significant net buyers of foreign assets, mainly DM government bonds. Weekly flow data suggests that this trend has continued beyond the turn of the Japanese fiscal year, albeit at a slightly slower pace (since April, Japan net purchases of overseas bonds amount to ¥2tn vs. ¥4.3tn in Mar-16 and ¥3.1tn in Feb-16). Today’s data of overseas purchases by destination for March highlights which markets have benefitted so far.

    DM: Record appetite for US Treasuries in March; dwarfed other markets

    Treasuries normally make up most of Japanese investors' foreign bond purchases. This was certainly true in March, with the ¥4.8tn of net purchases of USTs (largest since at least 2005) accounting for 87% of the overall net flow

    And that Fed-frustrating bid for bonds is not about to stop…

    Investment plans point to continued strong demand; should weigh on yields

    Our take on Japanese life insurers’ and asset managers’ investment plans for FY16-17 is that a vast majority plans to boost their foreign bond holdings further, often at the expense of JGBs.

     

    While most still seem to favour FX-hedging overseas bonds, some look to also up unhedged purchases. However, others appear sceptical of the prospects for a yen turnaround, and will only consider altering hedging ratios if they grow more confident that the JPY will weaken. We remain of the view that liquid and highly rated markets offering an attractive FX-hedged yield pickup vs. JGBs, like USTs and OATs, should be key beneficiaries.

     

    So the next time Eric Rosengren says that the bond market is way too pessimistic about growth or how awesome The Fed is – tell him to blame his Keynesian frontrunning fools in Japan for "reaching for yield" into USTs and dumping JGBs – if Eric really wants to saee what happens to his bond market, maybe try NIRP – just as Yellen said was on the table tonight.

  • "Screw The Next Generation" Anonymous Congressman Admits To "Blithely Mortgaging The Future With A Wink & A Nod"

    A shockingly frank new book from an anonymous Democratic congressman turns yet another set of conspiracy theories into consirpacy facts as he spills the beans on the ugly reality behind the scenes in Washington. While little will surprise any regular readers, the selected quotes offered by "The Confessions Of Congressman X" book cover sheet read like they were ripped from the script of House of Cards… and yet are oh so believable…

     

    A devastating inside look at the dark side of Congress as revealed by one of its own! No wonder Congressman X wants to remain anonymous for fear of retribution. His admissions are deeply disturbing…

    "Most of my colleagues are dishonest career politicians who revel in the power and special-interest money that's lavished upon them."

     

    "My main job is to keep my job, to get reelected. It takes precedence over everything."

     

    "Fundraising is so time consuming I seldom read any bills I vote on. Like many of my colleagues, I don't know how the legislation will be implemented, or what it'll cost."

    The book also takes shots at voters as disconnected idiots who let Congress abuse its power through sheer incompetence…

    "Voters are incredibly ignorant and know little about our form of government and how it works."

     

    "It's far easier than you think to manipulate a nation of naive, self-absorbed sheep who crave instant gratification."

    And, as The Daily Mail so elqouently notes, the take-away message is one of resigned depression about how Congress sacrifices America's future on the altar of its collective ego…

    "We spend money we don't have and blithely mortgage the future with a wink and a nod. Screw the next generation."

     

    "It's about getting credit now, lookin' good for the upcoming election."

    Simply put, it's everything that is enraging Americans about their government's dysfunction and why Trump is getting so much attention.

  • "What Could Have Possibly Raised Your Costs" – Hillary Can't Answer Why Obamacare Costs Are Soaring

    Hillary Clinton’s strategy to get in front of voters and answer one-on-one type questions is not working out very well.

    First, Clinton couldn’t explain to an unemployed West Virginian why she was promising to put a lot of coal miners out of work. Now, Hillary can’t explain why Obamacare fees are higher than promised, and are set to explode even higher next year.

    During a recent town hall event, a small business owner explained to the Democratic front-runner that her health insurance has gone up so significantly for her family that the thought of providing benefits to her employees is secondary at this point.

    “As a small business owner, not only are you trying to provide benefits to your employees, you’re trying to provide benefits to yourself. I have seen our health insurance for my own family, go up $500 dollars a month in the last two years. We went from four hundred something, to nine hundred something. We’re just fighting to keep benefits for ourselves. The thought of being able to provide benefits to your employees is almost secondary, yet to keep your employees happy, that’s a question that comes across my desk all the time. I have to keep my employees as independent contractors for the most part really to avoid that situation, and so I have turnover”

     

    “We do not qualify for a subsidy on the current health insurance plan. My question to you is not only are you looking out for people that can’t afford healthcare, but I’m someone that can afford it, but it’s taking a big chunk of the money I bring home.

    To which Hillary responded, to make a long story short, that she knows healthcare costs are going up, and doesn’t understand why that would ever be the case.

    “What you’re saying is one of the real worries that we’re facing with the cost of health insurance because the costs are going up in a lot of markets, not all, but many markets and what you’re describing is one of the real challenges.”

     

    “There’s a lot of things I’m looking at to try to figure out how to deal with exactly the problem you’re talking about. There are some good ideas out there but we have to subject them to the real world test, will this really help a small business owner or a family be able to afford it. What could have possibly raised your costs four hundred dollars, and that’s what I don’t understand.

    * * *

     

    While we don’t have all of the answers as to why the cost of insurance has skyrocketed under the Obamacare regime (actually scratch that, we know very well) we do know that more government subsidies will only continue to drive the costs up, and families and small businesses will continue to get burned as the government continues to tinker with the healthcare market, especially as more insurance providers finally do the math and pull out of Obamacare states as the largest American health insurer, UnitedHealth, has done in recent weeks.

    Also, Clinton does have a good point in saying that ideas should be subjected to real world tests before being implemented. Perhaps the all-knowing planners should have tried that before spending billions on the Obamacare roll out, which is currently crumbling beneath its own weight.

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Today’s News 12th May 2016

  • Should the Gold Price Keep Up with Inflation?

    by Keith Weiner

     

    The popular belief is that gold is a good hedge against inflation. Owning gold will protect you from rising prices. Is that true?

    Most people define inflation as rising prices. Economists will quibble and say technically it’s the increase in the quantity of money, however Milton Friedman expressed the popular belief well. He said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”

    There you have it. The Federal Reserve increases the money supply and that, in turn, causes an increase in the price of everything, including gold. It’s as simple as that, right?

    Except, it doesn’t work that way. Just ask anyone who has been betting on rising commodities prices since 2011. Certainly the money supply has increased. M1 was $1.86T in January 2011, and in March it hit $3.15T. This is a 69 percent increase. However, commodities have gone the opposite way. For example, wheat peaked at $9.35 per bushel in July 2012, and so far it’s down to $4.64 or about 50 percent. And the price of gold fell from $1900 in 2011, to $1050 late last year, or 45 percent.

    Would you say that inflation is +69%, or is it -45% or -50%?

    Most people look at retail prices, not raw commodities or gold. Retail prices have not followed into the abyss. Love it or hate it, the Consumer Price Index registers a cumulative 8 percent gain from 2011 through 2015 inclusive.

    Let’s consider an example to help understand why. Suppose you own a coffee shop in a central business district. The city enacts a new regulation that limits the hours for delivery trucks. This forces you to pay overtime wages to your staff to unload the trucks, and of course, the carrier charges more for delivery too.

    Next, the city allows poor people to stop paying their water bill. So to compensate, they raise the water rates on businesses. While they’re at it, they raise the fees for sewer, garbage, gas line hookups, fire inspections, and sign permits. The state passes a higher minimum wage law. The building inspector requires that you increase the size of your bathroom to accommodate wheelchairs, and you lose revenue-generating floor space. There are hundreds of ways that government increases your costs.

    Is this inflation?

    Not yet, costs are up but not prices. Sooner or later, all of the affected coffee shops try raising their prices. Consumers don’t necessarily want to pay more for coffee, so a few shops fail. The survivors are now charging 15% more for coffee. They have their higher prices, at the cost of lower sales volume.

    The burden of government bearing down on the coffee business only increases. Every day, three constituencies conspire to drive up costs. We’ll call them the “there oughtta be a law” crowd, the “government needs more revenues” mob, and the “they served 10oz of coffee plus 4oz of ice so let’s sue them” racket.

    Regulation, taxation, and litigation drive up price. Friedman was wrong. The rising price of lattes is not a monetary phenomenon (the monetary system is pressuring prices lower right now, and in my theory of interest and prices I discuss why). Rising retail prices are a fiscal, regulatory, and judicial problem.

    There is no reason for the price of gold to follow retail, because there is no mechanism that connects gold to these non-monetary costs.

  • A Look at the EIA Report and Some General Market Commentary (Video)

    By EconMatters

     

    The API Report tried to over correct from their previous two misses for weekly forecasts, and caused oil traders to be wrong footed going into the EIA Inventory Report.  There was just massive volume following the report with no “fadeable” metrics for shorts to hang their hats on today.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • What Will The Global Economy Look Like After The "Great Reset"?

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    A very common phrase used over the past couple years by the International Monetary Fund’s Christine Lagarde as well as other globalist mouthpieces is the “global reset.” Very rarely do these elites ever actually mention any details as to what this “reset” means. But if you take a look at some of my past analysis on the economic endgame, you will find that they do, on occasion, let information slip which gives us a general picture of where they prefer the world be within the next few years or even the next decade.

    A few goals are certain and openly admitted. The globalists ultimately want to diminish or erase the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency. They most definitely are seeking to establish the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights basket system as a replacement for the dollar system; this plan was even outlined in the Rothschild run magazine The Economist in 1988. They want to consolidate economic governance, moving away from a franchise system of national central banks into a single global monetary authority, most likely under the IMF or the Bank for International Settlements. And, they consistently argue for the centralization of political power in the name of removing legislative and sovereign barriers to safer financial regulation.

    These are not “theories” of fiscal change, these are facts behind the globalist methodology. When the IMF mentions the “great global reset,” the above changes are a part of what they are referring to.

    That said, much of my examinations focus on these macro-elements; but what about the deeper mechanics of the whole scheme? What kind of economic system would we wake up to on a daily basis IF the globalists get exactly what they want? This is an area in which the elites rarely ever comment, and I can only offer hypothetical scenarios. I am basing these scenarios on the measures that the establishment most obsessively chases. If they want a particular social or economic change badly enough, the signs become obvious.

    Here is what the world would probably look like after a global economic reset…

    Initial Crisis

    Who knows what the trigger will be? There are so many potential catalysts for economic instability that there is no way to make a prediction. The only thing that is certain is that one or more of these catalysts will be triggered. A Saudi depeg from the U.S. dollar, a large scale terrorist attack, a general rout in stock markets due to a loss of faith in central bank policy, a confrontation between Eastern and Western powers. It doesn’t really matter much. All of it is designed to produce one outcome chaos. To which the globalists will offer “order,” their particular order using their particular solutions as “objective mediators.”

    In our highly interdependent system in the West in which more than 80 percent of the population has been domesticated and is psychologically incapable of self-reliance, it is very likely that a disruption of normal supply chains and services would result in considerable poverty and death. Such a threat would invariably lead frightened and unprepared people to demand increased government controls so that they can return to the level of comfort they have grown accustomed to within the grid.

    One important factor to note is the rationale globalists will offer for increased centralization and control in the hands of a few. In my article, The Linchpin Lie: How Global Collapse Will Be Sold To The Masses, I study the clever narrative of Rand Corporation member John Casti and his “Linchpin Theory.” In Casti’s theory (more propaganda than theory), collapse is inevitable in what he calls “overly complex systems.” The more independent elements within any system, the more chance there is for unpredictable events that lead to supposed disaster. Ostensibly, the solution would be to streamline all systems and remove the free-radicals. That is to say, complete centralization is the answer. What a surprise.

    In a post-reset world, the elites will argue that the banks and bankers are not necessarily to blame. Rather, they will accuse the “system” of being too complex and chaotic, leaving itself open to greed, stupidity and overall unconscious sabotage. The fact that the crisis was engineered from the very beginning will never be mentioned. Centralization will be championed as the cure-all to the barbaric relic of complexity.  Almost all other changes to our economic environment will stem from this single lie.

    Thinning Of The Financial Herd

    You are going to see long standing financial institutions sacrificed in the name of rehabilitating the global system. Do not assume that certain major banks (Deutsche Bank?) will not be brought down, or that certain central banks will not be toppled (Federal Reserve) as the reset progresses. Also do not assume even that certain geopolitical structures will not be brought into disarray (European Union). In the push towards total globalization and one world economic governance, the elites have no loyalty to any single corporation, nation or even central bank. They will chop off almost any appendage if they can achieve a one world system in the trade.

    What this means on a micro-level is the activation of bail-ins; that is to say, the legalized confiscation of bank accounts, pension funds, stock holdings, etc. as a method for prolonging a collapse event. We have seen this already to some extent in Europe, and it will happen in the U.S. eventually. Some people (socialists/communists) may even cheer the action as the end of “capitalism” and a step toward economic “harmonization”; which is easy for them to cheer for since most of them have never worked hard enough to earn property or assets worth confiscating.

    Currency Devaluation

    Everyone who is aware expects this, but it is important to realize that currency devaluation will probably occur across the board in every region of the world. Some currencies will simply be hit harder than others. The dollar is a primary target of the globalists and WILL be brought down. It won’t disappear, but it will become progressively irrelevant on the global stage.  If the projections of 'The Economist' are the correct timetable, then the end of the dollar will be well underway before 2018.

    While the initial scenario we face in America will be one of stagflation, many necessities and the means to produce those necessities will skyrocket in cost.  There may not be inflation in every sector of the economy because imploding demand could offset some of the effects of falling currency value, but there will be extreme inflation in the areas that hurt common people most.

    The Digitization Of All Trade

    Despite all the failings and control mechanisms involved in fiat money, there are still worse systems to be had. Last month more than 100 executives from the world’s largest financial institutions met privately at the Times Square office of Nasdaq Inc. to discuss the future of money; more specifically a software apparatus called “Blockchain.” The goal is to implement Blockchain as a medium to fully digitize monetary transactions around the world and in a way that is traceable and foolproof. In other words, the goal is put an end to all transactions involving physical cash.

    The establishment of a cashless society would mark the end of all privacy in trade. Even supposedly anti-centralization digital currencies like Bitcoin are hindered by the blockchain feature, which requires the tracking of ALL transactions in order for the currency to function. While methods for anonymity could be argued, the fact of the matter is, digital currency by its very nature is a destroyer of the truly private trade offered by cash and barter. When all trade is tracked, and all savings digitized, whoever owns the keys to the core of the blockchain will have the power to wreak havoc on the life of any participant at will.

    To be sure, the “blockchain” that the elites have in mind will never allow for anonymous transactions, because digital currency is not about anonymity or “convenience,” it is about control.

    Consolidation Of Government Power

    Corrupt government is the tool by which globalists can extort goods and labor from a population as well as exert force to subdue rebellion.  It is highly unlikely that the global reset will result in a collapse of government.  On the contrary, it is usually during economic collapse that governments grow in power to the point of totalitarianism.  There will always be a new currency mechanism or financial structure to replace the old, and the globalists will always have a way to pay off armies and useful idiots to do their bidding.  No one should be counting on the idea that the elites face collapse as we face collapse.  This is naive.  The elites created the collapse; they plan to be ready to use it to their advantage.

    The End Of Private Production And Business

    After the reset and the opening crisis it is probable that resource allocation will become a major issue. Production of goods on the massive scale seen today will not ever be allowed to return if the elites have their way. This will create a perpetual lack of supply (by design). The only methods for dealing with lost production on an industrial level would be to either encourage localized production in every community, or to force people to reduce their standard of living and demand in the extreme. The elites will certainly press for the latter.

    Localized production in every community would kill any means of financial control the globalists might have on a population. In fact, I believe they will attempt to make any local production impossible, first through taxation so high that only the largest still-surviving corporations can afford to operate, and second, by confiscation of raw resources needed to manufacture goods on a scale that would grow wealth for a community. The government will claim that such resources must be managed by the authorities for the good of everyone rather than “wasted” by independent businesses in the “pursuit of personal wealth.”  You won't even see children running lemonade stands, let alone common people operating small factories, farms and store fronts.

    Eventually, they will also have to limit or outlaw barter and alternative currencies in order for the digitized economy to work.

    Carbon Output And Environmental Extortion

    No matter how much information is released which completely contradicts the fraud of man-made global warming, the establishment continues to charge full steam ahead with the creation of a carbon-based economic model. Why? Because the idea of the “carbon footprint” is the ultimate weapon for domination. A “carbon tax” is a tax on life itself. There is no way around it.

    In my article 'Ecological Panic: The New Rationale For Globalist Cultism' I dissect the elitist think-tank propaganda of Council on Foreign Relations member Timothy Snyder.  Snyder argues in his writings that nearly all man-made disasters are a product of high or extravagant living standards.  Though his definition of "high living standards" is rather vague, I expect that he sees the vast majority of Western society as people that need to be taken down several pegs.  He also argues that tyrants and mass murderers often ignore scientific authority in the pursuit of greater productive wealth, and that people who ignore "climate science" are contributing to future holocausts.  So, to summarize, we all must stop producing, stop pursuing personal wealth and achievement and sacrifice our own individual progress in the name of progress for the collective and the safety of the planet.

    Like Casti, Snyder's narrative requires the populace to bow down to a central authority in the name of the greater good.  And surely it is mere coincidence that the globalists these men work for will be at the helm of that central authority.

    Remember, in order to fully centralize, the elites must streamline. This does not only mean streamlining economic governance, but also streamlining the size of the system they seek to dictate. The larger and more diverse the system, the harder it is to wrap your tentacles around it. This means greatly diminished production, but also by extension greatly diminishing the population. Population controls then become vital.

    If the production of carbon can be taxed and administrated, then the production of life can be taxed and administrated. The establishment becomes godlike; the purveyor of all means of sustainment. The carbon boogeyman can be used to frighten the now crisis weary public into complete sublimation, for if mere carbon can cause the end of the world as we know it, then people, by their very existence, become a threat to the future that must be regulated.

    Anthropogenic climate change is THE model the elites must assert if they hope to convince the citizenry that a concrete ceiling on production and population is acceptable. If we ever get to the point where human society becomes so self-loathing as to seek its own enslavement and destruction through carbon controls, it may be a thousand years before we ever see freedom again.

    We’re Not There Yet

    All of the dangers described above are NOT set in stone. Some may claim that the “end is nigh” these people are idiots. The end is never nigh. Humanity has faced calamity after calamity for generations; our calamity just happens to be historically epic by comparison. It is not the last calamity. Centuries from now, there will be new disasters and new idiots telling everyone “the end is nigh.”

    Through it all, courageous people have risen to the occasion. Some are successful and some are not, but we do not live in a New World Order, yet, and that is saying something. Today is nowhere near as terrible as tomorrow could be if we do not act accordingly.

    The globalist reset needs a trigger, a crisis which admittedly we do not have the ability to avoid. But, the reset also depends on the right people in place to rebuild the system after the crisis unfolds. Here is where the future can be determined. Whoever is left standing after the opening salvo will have a choice: to hide and hope for the best, or to fight for the position to choose who builds tomorrow. Will it be the psychotic globalist cabal, or will it be free people of conscience? It may not seem like it now, but the end result is up to us.

  • London's New Mayor To Donald Trump: Let Muslims In Or They Will Attack The US

    Ever since he officially took office on May 9, London’s first Muslim mayor Sadiq Khan wasted no time in criticizing and attacking Donald Trump’s proposed Muslim ban. Several days ago, the presumptive candidate told the New York Times that he was happy to see Mr Khan elected, saying it could be “very, very good.” However, the pleasantry was not returned, and instead Khan said Trump’s “ignorant” view of Islam could make both Britain and the US less safe, which ironically implies more potential terrorist attacks by Muslims in both the US and the UK.

    Khan brushed aside Trump’s suggestion that he would exempt him from his proposed ban on Muslims entering the United States, and said that “this isn’t just about me – it’s about my friends, my family and everyone who comes from a background similar to mine, anywhere in the world,” he said. Quoted by the Telegraph, Khan added: “Donald Trump’s ignorant view of Islam could make both of our countries less safe – it risks alienating mainstream Muslims around the world and plays into the hands of extremists.” He may well be right, although it only pushes the discussion back to square one – how should the US (and not just the US in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels) defend itself from extremists?

    Khan pressed on saying “Donald Trump and those around him think that Western liberal values are incompatible with mainstream Islam – London has proved him wrong.” We are confident that Trump would also agree, however the Donald has never said he is focused on “mainstream Islam”, only its radical fringes, and those as Europe has found out the hard way over the past year, are very difficult to isolate.

    The reason for the tension between the two figures is that Trump has vowed a “total and complete” temporary shutdown of America’s borders to Muslims following last December’s deadly attack in San Bernardino by a husband and wife team who had Islamic State connections. When asked by the New York Times how his proposed ban on Muslims would apply to Mr Khan, Trump said: “There will always be exceptions.”

    Despite his outspoken views on Muslims, Trump insisted he was pleased to see Mr Khan elected as the capital’s first Muslim mayor. “I was happy to see that. I think it’s a very good thing, and I hope he does a very good job because, frankly, that would be very, very good.”

    Sadiq, however, has refused to back down and earlier today he told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that he hopes Donald Trump does not win the U.S. presidential election.

    Speaking Wednesday in London, he said American voters faced a decision “of hope over fear, unity over division. A choice of somebody who is trying to divide, not just your communities in America but who is trying to divide America from the rest of the world. And I think that, you know, that’s not the America that I know and love.” He continued: “I’m hoping he’s not the guy that wins.”

     

    Khan reiterated his belief that Trump’s views of Islam are ignorant. “It is possible to be a Muslim and to live in the West. It is possible to be a Muslim and to love America,” he said, adding that he himself loves the country.  “By giving the impression that Islam and the West are incompatible, you are playing into the hands of the extremists.”

    He continued: “Imagine that America has a sign saying no Muslims: What message does that send to Muslims around the world?”

    Well, ostensibly, one that the public wants to hear.

    However, what is perhaps most surprising is that in response to Khan’s criticism, Trump appeared to subtly soften his tone on his proposed ban on foreign Muslims entering the United States Wednesday,  The planned ban, Trump said on Fox News Radio’s “Kilmeade and Friends,” is only “temporary” according to The Hill.

    “It hasn’t been called for yet. Nobody’s done it,” the presumptive Republican nominee said. “This is just a suggestion until we find out what’s going on.”

    Trump stood by his proposal, which has been criticized as potentially unconstitutional, as he has repeatedly since emerging as the presumptive GOP nominee last week.  “I assume he denies that there’s Islamic terrorism,” Trump responded on Wednesday. “I mean, if you look at this Islamic radical terrorism all over the world right now, it’s a disaster what’s going on. I assume he is denying that.”

    Yet the slight softening could suggest a change in rhetoric following protracted criticism from Sadiq Khan, the new London mayor. Khan, who is Muslim, has launched perhaps the most direct attacks on Trump’s policies in recent days.

    The question, then, is whether Trump’s shift in tone will be perceived as a backing off from a platform that has appealed to many Amerians, or if instead it will be seen as a modest centrist move by a candidate who is preparing to court a far broader cross-section of the US.

  • Getting It All Straight – Trumpism, Nationalism, Patriotism, & Libertarianism

    Submitted by Justin Raimondo via Anti-War.com,

    I was struck by a tweet from libertarian Republican congressman Justin Amash, who has become the “new Ron Paul” now that the three-time presidential candidate and libertarian icon has taken a well-deserved rest from politics. The other day he tweeted:

    “Patriotism & nationalism are profoundly different. Patriotism is love of country. FA Hayek called nationalism ‘a twin brother of socialism.’”

    Amash, who has vowed to never support GOP frontrunner and likely presidential nominee Donald Trump, undoubtedly had the New York real estate mogul in mind, but no matter what one thinks of The Donald, Amash is quite wrong about the nature of American nationalism and the meaning of “patriotism.”

    To begin with, Hayek was clearly talking about European nationalism, not the American variety. I’ll get to the difference between them, but I want first to point out the irony of Amash’s citation of this particular Hayek quote, because the great libertarian theorist was here talking about the problem of centralization: that is, the growing tendency of smaller political units to be subordinated to and swallowed up by bigger entities.

    If we place Hayek’s discussion in the present context, then it becomes clear that nationalism is not the enemy but a (potential) friend of liberty. For the modern trend is toward supra-national entities, like the European Union, the UN, and the North American “Free Trade” Agreement, which are engaged in erecting precisely that “society which is consciously organized from the top” so abhorred by Hayek. When nationalism is arrayed against globalism, i.e. against the concept of a regional super-state, or even a World State, libertarians must clearly take sides with the former.

    Furthermore, what is a “nation,” exactly?

    The libertarian theorist Murray Rothbard takes on this question in his trenchant essay “Nations By Consent: Decomposing the Nation-State,” and his ability to cut through to the heart of any question underscores the error made by Amash and anti-nationalist libertarians in general:

    “Libertarians tend to focus on two important units of analysis: the individual and the state. And yet, one of the most dramatic and significant events of our time has been the re-emergence – with a bang – in the last few years of a third and much-neglected aspect of the real world, the ‘nation.’ When the nation has been thought of at all, it usually comes attached to the state, as in the common word nation-state, but this concept takes a particular development in recent centuries and elaborates it into a universal maxim. In recent years, however, we have seen, as a corollary of the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union and in Eastern Europe, a vivid and startlingly swift decomposition of the centralized state or alleged nation-state into its constituent nationalities. The genuine nation, or nationality, has made a dramatic reappearance on the world stage.

     

    “The nation, of course, is not the same thing as the state, a difference that earlier libertarians, such as Ludwig von Mises and Albert Jay Nock understood full well. Contemporary libertarians often assume, mistakenly, that individuals are bound to each other only by the nexus of market exchange. They forget that  everyone is born into a family, a language, and a culture. Every person is born into one or several overlapping communities, usually including an ethnic group, with specific values, cultures, religious beliefs, and traditions. He is generally born into a country; he is always born into a specific time and place, meaning neighborhood and land area.”

    In short, the “nation” consists entirely of non-governmental structures and institutions: it is the web of social interactions and cultural context which the government spends most of its energy trying to bend to its will.

    In a free society, this effort is largely unsuccessful: in a dictatorship, the state has replaced the nation and substituted its own “culture,” imposed from the top, for the traditions and values that have been established over time by the voluntary actions and decision-making of individuals.

    What Amash forgets, or never knew, is that from a libertarian perspective American nationalism is sui generis. Nationalism, after all, is by definition the valorization of a nation’s heritage, its traditions, and most especially its origins. And how did the American nation originate? Why, in the first – and only – successful libertarian revolution in world history.

    “Constitutional conservatives” of Amash’s sort are constantly invoking the Constitution as some sort of sacred canon, the libertarian ur-text through which all issues must be viewed. We’ll pass over just how libertarian this document is – there’s a large and persuasive school of libertarian thought that views the adoption of the Constitution as a counterrevolution – and ask: where does Amash think that holy writ came from? It was made possible by those who had fought a revolution and established a nation, one founded on the supremacy of individual liberty.

    This is what differentiated it from the nations of Europe, and what, in the end, separated American nationalism out from the European varieties. In Europe, nationalism inevitably meant the growth of State power at the expense of regional autonomy and individual liberty: in America, it meant the victory of a libertarian revolution and the establishment of a government that respected both the rights of the separate states and individual autonomy.

    Walled off by two oceans from a world dominated by monarchs and aggressors, born in a revolt against imperialism, imbued with a culture that nurtured the free individual, America is truly the exceptional nation, albeit not in the way today’s purveyors of “American exceptionalism” usually mean it. An American nationalist isn’t a Bismarckian:  he’s a Jeffersonian.

    Mutants like Teddy Roosevelt – and his contemporary fan club, the neoconservatives – are the exception that proves the rule. Speaking very generally, American libertarianism is consistent nationalism: not the expansionist, militaristic nationalism of Europe, but that of the Founders.

    In this country, a nationalist necessarily upholds the American tradition of limited government, the rule of law, and – yes – “isolationism” (“She goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy”). No wonder John Kerry preaches the virtues of a “borderless world,” and warns graduating students of the dangers of “looking inward”! Empires aspiring to world hegemony don’t recognize the legitimacy of borders, and as for looking inward – why do that when we have a whole world to conquer?

    In a world where supranational bureaucracies – who want to centralize economic and political decision-making and put it in the hands of a trans-national elite – are actively subverting the very idea of national sovereignty, nationalists are on the right side of the barricades. Should Catalonia be forced to be a part of Spain? Should England be dragooned into the European Union? Should the American economy be ruled by a World Central Bank? What “libertarian” can answer yes?

    I am struck, in the Rothbard quote cited above, by the phrase a “much-neglected aspect of the real world.” Libertarians, all too often, have to be constantly reminded of the real world, as opposed to the world of floating abstractions they sometimes seem to inhabit. It is one thing to have principles: it’s quite another, however, to apply those principles to reality – not by compromising them, but by recognizing that one-dimensional models of human behavior will not chart a course to liberty.

    And now a word about “patriotism”: this concept has been used as a bludgeon against opponents of every war in American history, and is trotted out to smear government critics as “unpatriotic,” if not outright traitors. Such expressions of “patriotism” as the Pledge of Allegiance (authored by a socialist), and the odious maxim “My country right or wrong,” are nothing more than state-worship, the very opposite of true nationalism in the American sense.

  • In China, Nobody Wants To Be A Bagholder

    With the frenzied speculation that drove levels and volumes in Chinese commodities off the charts having dawned on everyone from Cramer to Chinese Securities regulators as ‘not real’, it appears everyone is scrambling to not be the bagholder for this bubble as authorities crackdown on Chinese asset managers pooling retail investor funds, warning of the rise of “ponzi schemes.” While nobody knows for sure how much of the trading surge has been driven by individuals, but the evidence suggests retail punters are playing a big role, and as Bloomberg reports, the average holding period for contracts including rebar and iron ore was less than 3 hours in April!

    China’s asset managers were warned of “Ponzi scheme” risks from pooling investor funds intended for different products, as an industry association said a joint venture between Citic Trust and Citic-Prudential Fund Management was being punished for violating restrictions on such practices. As Bloomberg details,

    Citic-CP Asset Management, known for marketing Uber Technologies Inc. shares in China, has been suspended for six months from issuing new products because of the breaches, according to an Asset Management Association of China statement on its website on Thursday. No one answered at a phone number listed on a website for Citic-CP Asset Management on Friday.

     

    The risk from pooling money is that cash from new investors can be used to repay existing investors, as occurs in the scams named after Charles Ponzi. The association reiterated that funds investing in securities are banned from running cash pools and pledged to work with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to cleanse the industry of the practice.

     

    In Thursday’s statement, the asset-management association urged its industry to abandon the “grey area,” saying cash pools could hide financial risks for long periods, only to create enormous damage when things went wrong.

    Of course, with the now famous Chinese propensity for gmabling on any and everything that is going up, as evidenced by the stunning collapse of average trading periods in commodity futures…

    “I’m pretty bored at work, so I trade commodities futures for some excitement,’’ said He, whose account swelled to as much as 700,000 yuan ($107,443) before sliding back to 400,000 yuan at the end of April.

     

    “Because I’m making investments with my friend, we can comfort each other when we are making a loss.’’

     

    Nobody knows for sure how much of the trading surge has been driven by individuals, but the evidence suggests retail punters are playing a big role. More than 40 percent of the volume in rebar futures last month came during the night session, when it’s more convenient for people with day jobs to trade. The average holding period for contracts including rebar and iron ore was less than 3 hours in April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

     

     

    Individuals with a bank account and official identity card can open a futures trading account at a brokerage within 40 minutes, with no initial balance required, Morgan Stanley said in a report on May 4.

    One would suspect the Chinese do in fact need protecting from themselves as lessons learned from the stock market’s bubble burst, the corporate bond bubble’s burst, and the real estate bubble’s burst still led them to pile into Chinese commodities… and deal with that bursting too…

    “The authorities in China are on an ongoing journey of educating investors about risk and reward as well as trying to manage the booming wealth management industry,” Pogson said.

  • 11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Rapidly Deteriorating Even As The Stock Market Soars

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    We have seen this story before, and it never ends well.  From mid-March until early May 2008, a vigorous stock market rally convinced many investors that the market turmoil of late 2007 and early 2008 was over and that happy days were ahead for the U.S. economy.  But of course we all know what happened.  It turned out that the market downturns of late 2007 and early 2008 were just “foreshocks” of a much greater crash in late 2008.  The market surge in the spring of 2008 was just a mirage, and it masked rapidly declining economic fundamentals.  Well, the exact same thing is happening right now.  The Dow rose another 222 points on Tuesday, but meanwhile virtually every number that we are getting is just screaming that the overall U.S. economy is steadily falling apart.  So don’t be fooled by a rising stock market.  Just like in the spring of 2008, all of the signs are pointing to an avalanche of bad economic news in the months ahead.  The following are 11 signs that the U.S. economy is rapidly deteriorating…

    #1 Total business sales have been declining for nearly two years, and they are now about 15 percent lower than they were in late 2014.

     

    #2 The inventory to sales ratio is now back to near where it was during the depths of the last recession.  This means that there is lots and lots of unsold stuff just sitting around out there, and that is a sign of a very unhealthy economy.

     

    #3 Corporate earnings have declined for four consecutive quarters.  This never happens outside of a recession.

     

    #4 Profits for companies listed on the S&P 500 were down 7.1 percent during the first quarter of 2016 when compared to the same time period a year ago.

     

    #5 In April, commercial bankruptcies were up 32 percent on a year over year basis, and Chapter 11 filings were up 67 percent on a year over year basis.  This is exactly the kind of spike that we witnessed during the initial stages of the last major financial crisis as well.

     

    #6 U.S. rail traffic was 11 percent lower last month than it was during the same month in 2015.  Right now there are 292 Union Pacific engines sitting idle in the middle of the Arizona desert because there is literally nothing for them to do.

     

    #7 The U.S. economy has lost an astounding 191,000 mining jobs since September 2014.  For areas of the country that are heavily dependent on mining, this has been absolutely devastating.

     

    #8 According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S. firms announced 35 percent more job cuts during April than they did in March.  This indicates that our employment problems are accelerating.

     

    #9 So far this year, job cut announcements are running 24 percent above the exact same period in 2015.

     

    #10 U.S. GDP grew at just a 0.5 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2016.  This was the third time in a row that the GDP number has declined compared to the previous quarter, and let us not forget that the formula for calculating GDP was changed last year specifically to make the first quarter of each year look better.  Without that “adjustment”, it is quite possible that we would have had a negative number for the first quarter.

     

    #11 Barack Obama is poised to become the first president in U.S. history to never have a single year during his time in office when the economy grew by more than 3 percent.

    But you never hear Obama talk about that statistic, do you?

    And the mainstream media loves to point the blame at just about anyone else.  In fact, the Washington Post just came out with an article that is claiming that the big problem with the economy is the fact that U.S. consumers are saving too much money…

    The surge in saving is the real drag on the economy. It has many causes. “People got a cruel lesson about [the dangers] of debt,” says economist Matthew Shapiro of the University of Michigan. Households also save more to replace the losses suffered on homes and stocks. But much saving is precautionary: Having once assumed that a financial crisis of the 2008-2009 variety could never happen, people now save to protect themselves against the unknown. Research by economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics finds higher saving at all income levels.

    So even though half the country is flat broke, I guess we are all supposed to do our patriotic duty by going out and running up huge balances on our credit cards.

    What a joke.

    Of course the U.S. economy is actually doing significantly better at the moment than almost everywhere else on the planet.  Many areas of South America have already plunged into an economic depression, major banks all over Europe are in the process of completely melting down, Japanese GDP has gone negative again despite all of their emergency measures, and Chinese stocks are down more than 40 percent since the peak of the market.

    This is a global economic slowdown, and just like in 2008 it is only a matter of time before the financial markets catch up with reality.  I really like how Andrew Lapthorne put it recently

    On the more bearish slant is Andrew Lapthorne, head of quantitative strategy at Societe Generale. To him this profit downturn is a sign that stocks are far too overvalued and the economy is weaker than you think.

    “MSCI World EPS is now declining at the fastest pace since 2009, losing 4% in the last couple of months alone (this despite stronger oil prices),” wrote Lapthorne in a note. For the S&P 500 specifically, the year on year drop in profit drop was the most since third quarter of 2009.

     

    “Global earnings are now 14% off the peak set in August 2014 and back to where they stood five years ago. Equity prices on the other hand are 25% higher. Gravity beckons!”

    I couldn’t have said it better myself.

    Look, this is not a game.

    So far in 2016, three members of my own extended family have lost their jobs.  Businesses are going under at a pace that we haven’t seen since 2008, and this means that more mass layoffs are on the way.

    We can certainly be happy that U.S. stocks are doing okay for the moment.  May it stay that way for as long as possible.  But anyone that believes that this state of affairs can last indefinitely is just being delusional.

    Gravity beckons, and the crash that is to come is going to be a great sight to behold.

  • When Social Media Goes Too Far: French Woman Broadcasts Her Suicide On Periscope

    Social media can be a positive thing. It can help family stay connected, help old friends re-connect, and even introduce new friends. However, for all of the positives, social media can also be taken too far, and end up having quite a negative impact.

    For example, it could lead to literally be addicted to one's smart phone, or even worse, social media could be used as a final "broadcast" for some that choose to take their own life.

    As RT reports, a 19 year old girl was recording herself on live video-streaming app Periscope when she threw herself under a train at the Egly station, about 25 miles south of Paris.

    Around 1,000 viewers watched as the girl said "What's about to happen will be very shocking, but I'm not doing it for the hype, I am doing it to send a message", which prompted users to respond with such comments as "we're waiting", and "give us a hint."

    Eventually during the video, the screen went dark, and an emergency worker could be overheard saying "I am under the train with the victim; I need to move the victim." The girl had in fact had broadcast to the public the moment she took her own life. RT also goes on to say that the girl sent a text message to one of her close friends several minutes before her death, announcing her intentions.

    Local prosecutor Eric Lallement said that the incident is being investigated, as the girl allegedly spoke of rape and named the aggressor during the video as well.

    Unfortunately, this of course isn't the first incident that has been broadcast on social media platform. Last month, an 18 year old Ohio woman was arrested for streaming video on Periscope of her friend being raped. Another incident that was live streamed was an attack by two teens on a drunken 24 year old man in Bordeaux, France – both teens were arrested.

    Sadly, these terrible events are a stark reminder that social media can indeed be taken too far.

  • Turkey Threatens Europe: "Unless Visas Are Removed, We Will Unleash The Refugees"

    Following months of appeasement of Turkey’s dictator Recep Erdogan, Europe has found itself surprised that as it yields to every incremental demand, Turkey simply asks for more and more. One such example was chronicled by the FT earlier today in “Turkey demands EU hands over €3bn for refugees” in which we read that “a row has erupted between Turkey and the EU over billions of pounds in aid for Syrian refugees, casting fresh doubt on a fragile deal to halt the flow of people towards Europe.”

    Erdogan’s argument is that he want the money to be transferred over to him directly to dispense with as he pleases, while Europe insists that UN agencies oversee that the money be spent as designated for refugee needs, instead of funding another wing for Erdogan’s palace. Of course, the only reason why Erdogan is confident he has leverage is because Turkey is currently hosting over 3 million Syrian refugees that is holding back from flooding into Europe once more, potentially resulting in the most acute episode of Europe’s refugee crisis.

    And to his credit, Erdogan has been successful in that, because as the following chart shows, for the first time since April 2015, more refugees arrived in Europe via Italy than on the path through Greece to the east. The flow of migrants through the Aegean Sea has waned since the European Union and Turkey struck a deal in March to send refugees back that arrive in Greece.

     

    However, this potential onslaught of Europe-bound refugees is also Erdogan’s biggest trump card: should Europe deny anything Turkey wants, he will simply open the gates leading to spiraling political chaos of the type already seen in Austria and Germany where anti-immigrant parties have stormed higher in the political polls in recent months.

    Confirming precisely that, was a warning by Burhan Kuzu, a high-ranking deputy for Turkey’s ruling AKP party and former adviser to President Erdogan, who said that Ankara will send migrants back to the EU if the European Parliament won’t grant visa-free travel to Turkish citizens.  Kuzu made several statements on Twitter in anticipation of Wednesday’s session of European parliament, at which visa exemption for Turkish nationals in the Schengen zone, as part of a migrant deal between Brussels and Ankara, was to be discussed.

    “The European Parliament will discuss the report that will open Europe visa-free for Turkish citizens. If the wrong decision is taken, we will unleash  the refugees!” in what was an unmistakable threat.

    He also told Bloomberg: “If Turkey’s doors are opened, Europe would be miserable.

    “Europe is on the edge of an important decision: It will decide on Turkey’s visa-free travel rights today. If a positive decision comes out, this is also a benefit for Europe,” the MP wrote in a separate tweet.

    As RT writes, it’s not the first time the deputy has threatened to flood Europe with over 2 million migrants from North Africa and Middle East, stranded in Turkish refugee camps.“Finally the EU understood Turkey’s stake and loosened its purse strings. What did we say? ‘We will open the borders and set Syrian migrants on you’,” he wrote back in December 2015.

    But in the worst news for Greece, and an indication that Erdogan’s gambit is no longer working, EUobserver wrote earlier that the European parliament had “quietly” suspended discussions of visa-free travel for Turkey Monday. EU parliament chief Martin Schulz put the debate on hold because Turkey had not yet met all EU visa-free criteria, said Judith Sargentini, a Dutch Green MEP. According to the site, the move is aimed at putting pressure on the European Commission so that it would take a firmer stance on Turkey fulfilling its part of the deal.

    “The ball is back with the European commission,” one of the MEPs told EUobersver, while the other stressed that the suspension will “make the parliament more important.”

    Meanwhile, Turkey’s minister for EU affairs Volkan Bozkir met with EU Commissioner for Migration, Home Affairs and Citizenship, Dimitris Avramopoulos, in Strasbourg today. The minister will also hold talks with Johannes Hahn, Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, on Friday in Brussels. No press events were planned following both meetings.

    The reason for the visit is because on May 4, the European Commission proposed to the European Parliament and the EU Council to lift visa restrictions for Turkish citizens, if Ankara fulfils five conditions by the end of June. They included measures to prevent corruption, holding talks on an operational agreement with Europol, judicial cooperation with all EU member states, bringing data protection rules in line with EU standards, and the revision of legislation on the fight against terrorism. It was the last condition that Turkey found particularly unacceptable.

    Bozkir told Turkish NTV broadcaster Wednesday that “it is not possible for us to accept any changes to the counter-terrorism law” as demanded by the EU.

    This followed a firm statement by Erdogan who told the EU on Friday that Turkey would not make the changes, declaring: “we’re going our way, you go yours”.

    Wednesday’s repeated refusal, and assertion that there had never been a reciprocal deal over the laws, will likely alarm EU officials already worried by the departure of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, seen as a more flexible negotiating partner.

    The EU said last week Turkey still had to change some laws, including narrowing its legal definition of terrorism, to secure visa-free travel for its citizens – part of a wide-ranging deal to secure Turkish help in reducing the flow of migrants into Europe.

    Turkey’s clear rejection and insistence that it has all the required leverage, sets Europe and Turkey for what will be a dramatic showdown in which Turkey’s increasingly despotic dictator will either be appeased one more time, or his bluff will be called.

    With Europe hit by the biggest migrant crisis in decades, the EU and Ankara signed the migrant deal back in March. According to the agreement, Turkey would take back refugees seeking asylum in the EU in exchange for a multi-billion euro aid package and some political concessions, including the visa-free regime.

    If the deal falls apart, Turkey will surely flood millions more in refugees who will unleash far more political havoc across Europe, and certainly Germany, than Greece ever could.

    So for all those focusing closely on the risk of Brexit or developments in Greece this summer where the third Greek bailout may or may not give the insolvent nation a few more months before its next payment to the ECB is due while it pretends to “reform”, a far bigger risk is what Greece’s neighbor to the east, ruled by an unhinged, irrational president, will end up doing, and how Europe would respond if he actually follows through with his bluff.

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Today’s News 11th May 2016

  • Introducing The London Kleptocracy Bus Tour

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    The City is a semi-offshore state, a bit like the UK’s crown dependencies and overseas territories, tax havens legitimised by the Privy Council. Britain’s financial secrecy undermines the tax base while providing a conduit into the legal economy for gangsters, kleptocrats and drug barons.

     

    Even the more orthodox financial institutions deploy a succession of scandalous practices: pension mis-selling, endowment mortgage fraud, the payment protection insurance con, Libor rigging. A former minister in the last government, Lord Green, ran HSBC while it engaged in money laundering for drug gangs, systematic tax evasion and the provision of services to Saudi and Bangladeshi banks linked to the financing of terrorists. Sometimes the UK looks to me like an ever so civilised mafia state.

     

    – From last year’s post: Guardian Op-Ed – The City of London Has Turned Britain Into a “Civilized Mafia State”

    This is too good not to cover.

    Via Yahoo News:

    A black bus winds its way through some of London’s most expensive neighbourhoods for a sightseeing tour with a difference — a guided visit around luxury houses bought by shady international tycoons and officials.

     

    The “Kleptocracy Tour” was set up by anti-corruption campaigner Roman Borisovich, who aims to expose dirty money fuelling the high-end London property market and the teams of British “enablers” who make it happen.

     

    “The idea behind the tour is to attract public attention to the fact of massive money laundering through properties in London,” Borisovich told AFP on the tour this week, ahead of an international anti-corruption summit being hosted by Prime Minister David Cameron.

     

    More than 36,000 properties in London are owned through offshore firms, which own a total £122 billion (154 billion euros, $176 billion) worth of property across England and Wales.

     

    Buying properties through offshore companies can be a way of hiding the true owners and avoiding taxes.

     

    More than £180 million worth of property in Britain was investigated as suspected proceeds of corruption between 2004 and 2014, according to Transparency International, which says this figure is just the “tip of the iceberg”.

     

    Luke Harding, a journalist with The Guardian newspaper who helped analyse the Panama Papers, said the shock for him was the realisation of the extent of the enabling role played by British intermediaries.

     

    “The UK has become Monaco with fog,” he said, after addressing the bus tour.

    Liberty Blitzkrieg readers will be familiar with this theme as I’ve been referring to London real estate as the world’s criminal oligarch money laundering capital of the world for quite some time.

    Here are a few previously published articles on the topic:

    London Bubble Trouble – Visas Issued to Wealthy Foreigners Plunge 84%

    The Luxury Housing Bubble Pops – Overseas Investors Struggle to Sell Overpriced Mansions

    Guardian Op-Ed – The City of London Has Turned Britain Into a “Civilized Mafia State”

    London’s Mayor Says We Should “Thank the Super Rich” – Calls Them “Tax Heroes” and Compares to the “Homeless and Irish Travelers”

  • The Washington Post Accuses Stingy Americans Of Ruining Obama's Recovery

    Every year it’s the same: some legacy mainstream media mouthpiece muses on how great Obama’s recovery would be… if only it wasn’t for stingy US consumers refusing to spend like the drunken sailors of days gone by. Last June, it was the WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath who actually wrote a letter to American consumers, confused by their unwillingness to spend and explicitly accused them of being “stingy” even as the “Federal Reserve was counting” on them to spend, spend, spend. For those who have forgotten this absolute pearl, here it is again:

    Dear American Consumer,

     

    This is The Wall Street Journal. We’re writing to ask if something is bothering you.

     

    The sun shined in April and you didn’t spend much money. The Commerce Department here in Washington says your spending didn’t increase at all adjusted for inflation last month compared to March. You appear to have mostly stayed home and watched television in December, January and February as well. We thought you would be out of your winter doldrums by now, but we don’t see much evidence that this is the case.

     

    You have been saving more too. You socked away 5.6% of your income in April after taxes, even more than in March. This saving is not like you. What’s up?

     

    We know you experienced a terrible shock when Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 and your employer responded by firing you. We know stock prices collapsed and that was shocking too. We also know you shouldn’t have taken out that large second mortgage during the housing boom to fix up your kitchen with granite countertops.  You’ve been working very hard to pay off this debt and we admire your fortitude. But these shocks seem like a long time ago to us in a newsroom. Is that still what’s holding you back?

     

    Do you know the American economy is counting on you? We can’t count on the rest of the world to spend money on our stuff. The rest of the world is in an even worse mood than you are. You should feel lucky you’re not a Greek consumer. And China, well they’re truly struggling there just to reach the very modest goal of 7% growth.

     

    The Federal Reserve is counting on you too. Fed officials want to start raising the cost of your borrowing because they worry they’ve been giving you a free ride for too long with zero interest rates. We listen to Fed officials all of the time here at The Wall Street Journal, and they just can’t figure you out.

     

    Please let us know the problem. You can reach us at any of the emails below.

     

    Sincerely,

     

    The Wall Street Journal’s Central Bank Team

     

    -By Jon Hilsenrath

    In retrospect, we can’t help but chuckle at the part about “Fed officials want to start raising the cost of your borrowing because they worry they’ve been giving you a free ride for too long with zero interest rates.”

    That said, one year later, it’s the turn of that other administration mouthpiece (owned no less by the man who has converted US consumerism into a business empire, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos) the Washington Post, to dwell on precisely the same topic: why are Americans so paralyzed from fears over a recession that ended so long ago, that instead of spending, American consumers are rushing to save in the process preventing Obama’s wonderful recovery from blooming.

    While it does not go so far as Hilsenrath in explicitly accusing consumers of being “stingy”, it does so indirectly when the author of what appears to be a hit piece aimed at the US middle class, or all those who no longer believe in maxing out their credit card, Robert Samuelson says that the real drag in the US economy is “us“, by which he means all those Americans refusing to go out and buy “stuff” (well, maybe not Samuelson: we are confident Samuelson is well compensated by Jeff Bezos to inspire even more AMZN bottom-line boosting consumerism). As a result, “American consumers aren’t what they used to be …. and that helps explain the plodding economic recovery.

    You see, dear American consumers, it’s all your fault. Not soaring, record rents, not spiking health insurance premiums that are eating away at your last disposable dollar, not that the so many of the “jobs created” in recent years have been part-time or minimum wage, not the fact that under ZIRP you can’t generate any interest income and are forced to save even more for retirement, not that as a result of central bank policy pension and retirement funds are unveiling cuts to retiree benefits,  not that real disposable incomes have gone nowhere in the past decade, not even that a third of US households can no longer even afford the basics of food, rent and transportation

    It’s your unwillingness to spend; it is – in the words of the WaPo author – “the surge in saving that is the real drag on the economy.

    Really. Here is the full article:

    American consumers aren’t what they used to be — and that helps explain the plodding economic recovery. It gets no respect despite creating 14 million jobs and lasting almost seven years. The great gripe is that economic growth has been held to about 2 percent a year, well below historical standards. This sluggishness reflects a profound psychological transformation of American shoppers, who have dampened their consumption spending, affecting about two-thirds of the economy. To be blunt: We have sobered up.

     

    This, as much as any campaign proposal, may shape our economic future. There’s an Old Consumer and a New Consumer, divided by the Great Recession. The Old Consumer borrowed eagerly and spent freely. The New Consumer saves soberly and spends prudently. Of course, there are millions of exceptions to these generalizations. Before the recession, not everyone was a credit addict; now, not everyone is a disciplined saver. Still, vast changes in beliefs and habits have occurred.

     

    A Gallup poll shows just how vast. In 2001, Gallup began asking: “Are you the type of person who more enjoys spending money or who more enjoys saving money?” Early responses were almost evenly split; in 2006, 50 percent preferred saving and 45 percent favored spending. After the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the gap widened spectacularly. In 2016, 65 percent said saving and only 33 percent spending.

     

    What’s happening is the opposite of the credit boom that caused the financial crisis. Then, Americans skimped on saving and binged on borrowing. This stimulated the economy. Now, the reverse is happening. Americans are repaying old debt, avoiding new debt and saving more. Although consumer spending has hardly collapsed, it provides less stimulus than before. (A conspicuous exception: light-vehicle sales, which hit a record 17.4 million in 2015).

     

    Consider the personal savings rate: the difference between Americans’ after-tax income and their spending. If a household has income of $50,000 and spends $45,000, its savings rate is 10 percent. Here are actual figures. From 1990 to 2005, the savings rate dropped from 7.8 percent to 2.6 percent. Since then, the savings rate has risen; it was 5.1 percent in 2015.

     

    Federal Reserve figures on debt tell a similar story. From 1999 to 2007, household borrowing (mainly home mortgages and credit card debt) increased nearly 10 percent annually, far faster than income gains. People mistakenly believed that they could safely borrow against the inflated values of their homes and stocks. Now, borrowing is subdued. In 2015, household debt of $14 trillion was unchanged from 2007. While many consumers borrowed, others repaid or defaulted.

     

    The surge in saving is the real drag on the economy. It has many causes. “People got a cruel lesson about [the dangers] of debt,” says economist Matthew Shapiro of the University of Michigan. Households also save more to replace the losses suffered on homes and stocks. But much saving is precautionary: Having once assumed that a financial crisis of the 2008-2009 variety could never happen, people now save to protect themselves against the unknown. Research by economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics finds higher saving at all income levels. 

     

    In theory, it’s easy to replace lost consumer demand. In practice, it’s not so easy. Businesses could build more factories and shopping malls. But with weaker consumer spending, do we need them? More exports would help, but economies abroad are weak.

     

    Government policies are also frustrated. The Fed’s low interest rates don’t work if people don’t want to borrow. Ditto for tax cuts. During the Great Recession, Congress enacted several temporary tax cuts to boost consumer spending. The effect was modest, as studies by Shapiro and his collaborators found. Take the case of the two-percentage-point suspension of the Social Security payroll tax in 2011 and 2012. Two-thirds of the tax cut went to saving and repaying debt — not spending.

    The horror…

    There is more but we’ll cut off here, wondering why the WaPo article did not have a disclaimer that it is owned by the world’s largest retailer by market capitalization, and will instead add to the scorn.

    Yes, dear broke American consumers which once made up the world’s most vibrant middle class: please stop being such a nuisance and source of confusion to nice Op-Ed columnists at the WaPo, the WSJ and, of course, the Fed and their $4.5 trillion in direct injections into the offshore bank accounts of America’s wealthiest 1%, and instead go ahead and splurge all your savings on trinkets, gadgets and gizmos you don’t need.

    Only that way will Obama’s recovery be truly complete.

  • American Horror Story: The Shameful Truth About The Government's Secret Experiments

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”—C.S. Lewis

    Fool me once, shame on you.

    “You” in this case is the government that keeps violating the sacred trust of its citizenry.

    Fool me twice, shame on me.

    “Me” in this case is the collective “we the people” who should have learned early on that a government that repeatedly lies, breaks the laws, overreaches its authority and abuses its power can’t be trusted.

    Fool me over and over and over again, shame on both of us.

    Shame on every politician, bureaucrat and technician who is a shill for the U.S. government’s abuses and lies, and shame on every gullible American who keeps buying into the government’s propaganda, believing that it has our best interests at heart.

    Unfortunately, as I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the government has seldom had our best interests at heart.

    The government didn’t have our best interests at heart when it propelled us into endless oil-fueled wars and military occupations in the Middle East that wreaked havoc on our economy, stretched thin our military resources and subjected us to horrific blowback.

    There is no way the government had our best interests at heart when it passed laws subjecting us to all manner of invasive searches and surveillance, censoring our speech and stifling our expression, rendering us anti-government extremists for daring to disagree with its dictates, locking us up for criticizing government policies on social media, encouraging Americans to spy and snitch on their fellow citizens, and allowing government agents to grope, strip, search, taser, shoot and kill us.

    Certainly the government did not have our best interests at heart when it turned America into a battlefield, transforming law enforcement agencies into extensions of the military, conducting military drills on domestic soil, distributing “free” military equipment and weaponry to local police, and desensitizing Americans to the menace of the police state with active shooter drills, color-coded terror alerts, and randomly conducted security checkpoints at “soft” targets such as shopping malls and sports arenas.

    It would be a reach to suggest that the government had our best interests at heart when it locked down the schools, installing metal detectors and surveillance cameras, adopting zero tolerance policies that punish childish behavior as harshly as criminal actions, and teaching our young people that they have no rights, that being force-fed facts is education rather than indoctrination, that they are not to question governmental authority, that they must meekly accept a life of censorship, round-the-clock surveillance, roadside blood draws, SWAT team raids and other indignities.

    One would also be hard-pressed to suggest that the American government had our best interests at heart when it conducted secret experiments on an unsuspecting populace—citizens and noncitizens alike—making healthy people sick by spraying them with chemicals, injecting them with infectious diseases and exposing them to airborne toxins. The government reasoned that it was legitimate to experiment on people who did not have full rights in society such as prisoners, mental patients, and poor blacks.

    The mindset driving these programs has, appropriately, been likened to that of Nazi doctors experimenting on Jews. As the Holocaust Museum recounts, Nazi physicians “conducted painful and often deadly experiments on thousands of concentration camp prisoners without their consent.” These unethical experiments ran the gamut from freezing experiments using prisoners to find an effective treatment for hypothermia, tests to determine the maximum altitude for parachuting out of a plane, injecting prisoners with malaria, typhus, tuberculosis, typhoid fever, yellow fever, and infectious hepatitis, exposing prisoners to phosgene and mustard gas, and mass sterilization experiments.

    It’s easy to denounce the full-frontal horrors carried out by the scientific and medical community within a despotic regime such as Nazi Germany, but what do you do with a government that claims to be a champion of human rights all the while allowing its agents to engage in the foulest, bases and most despicable acts of torture, abuse and human experimentation?

    In Alabama, for example, 600 black men with syphilis were allowed to suffer without proper medical treatment in order to study the natural progression of untreated syphilis. In California, older prisoners had testicles from livestock and from recently executed convicts implanted in them to test their virility. In Connecticut, mental patients were injected with hepatitis.

    In Maryland, sleeping prisoners had a pandemic flu virus sprayed up their noses. In Georgia, two dozen “volunteering” prison inmates had gonorrhea bacteria pumped directly into their urinary tracts through the penis. In Michigan, male patients at an insane asylum were exposed to the flu after first being injected with an experimental flu vaccine. In Minnesota, 11 public service employee “volunteers” were injected with malaria, then starved for five days.

    In New York, dying patients had cancer cells introduced into their systems. In Ohio, over 100 inmates were injected with live cancer cells. Also in New York, prisoners at a reformatory prison were also split into two groups to determine how a deadly stomach virus was spread: the first group was made to swallow an unfiltered stool suspension, while the second group merely breathed in germs sprayed into the air. And in Staten Island, children with mental retardation were given hepatitis orally and by injection to see if they could then be cured.

    As the Associated Press reports, “The late 1940s and 1950s saw huge growth in the U.S. pharmaceutical and health care industries, accompanied by a boom in prisoner experiments funded by both the government and corporations. By the 1960s, at least half the states allowed prisoners to be used as medical guinea pigs … because they were cheaper than chimpanzees.”

    Moreover, “Some of these studies, mostly from the 1940s to the '60s, apparently were never covered by news media. Others were reported at the time, but the focus was on the promise of enduring new cures, while glossing over how test subjects were treated.”

    Media blackouts, propaganda, spin. Sound familiar? How many government incursions into our freedoms have been blacked out, buried under “entertainment” news headlines, or spun in such a way as to suggest that anyone voicing a word of caution is paranoid or conspiratorial?

    Unfortunately, these incidents are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the atrocities the government has inflicted on an unsuspecting populace in the name of secret experimentation.

    For instance, there was the U.S. military’s secret race-based testing of mustard gas on more than 60,000 enlisted men. As NPR reports, “All of the World War II experiments with mustard gas were done in secret and weren't recorded on the subjects' official military records. Most do not have proof of what they went through. They received no follow-up health care or monitoring of any kind. And they were sworn to secrecy about the tests under threat of dishonorable discharge and military prison time, leaving some unable to receive adequate medical treatment for their injuries, because they couldn't tell doctors what happened to them.”

    And then there was the CIA’s MKULTRA program in which hundreds of unsuspecting American civilians and military personnel were dosed with LSD, some having the hallucinogenic drug slipped into their drinks at the beach, in city bars, at restaurants. As Time reports, “before the documentation and other facts of the program were made public, those who talked of it were frequently dismissed as being psychotic.”

    Now one might argue that this is all ancient history and that the government today is different from the government of yesteryear. But has the U.S. government really changed?

    Has the government become any more humane, any more respectful of the rights of the citizenry? Has it become any more transparent or willing to abide by the rule of law? Has it become any more truthful about its activities? Has it become any more cognizant of its appointed role as a guardian of our rights?

    Or has the government simply hunkered down and hidden its nefarious acts and dastardly experiments under layers of secrecy, legalism and obfuscations? Has it not become wilier, more slippery, more difficult to pin down? Having mastered the Orwellian art of Doublespeak and followed the Huxleyan blueprint for distraction and diversion, are we not dealing with a government that is simply craftier and more conniving that it used to be?

    Consider this: after revelations about the government’s experiments spanning the 20th century spawned outrage, the government began looking for human guinea pigs in other countries, where “clinical trials could be done more cheaply and with fewer rules.”

    In Guatemala, prisoners and patients at a mental hospital were infected with syphilis, “apparently to test whether penicillin could prevent some sexually transmitted disease.” More recently, U.S.-funded doctors “failed to give the AIDS drug AZT to all the HIV-infected pregnant women in a study in Uganda even though it would have protected their newborns.” Meanwhile, in Nigeria, children with meningitis were used to test an antibiotic named Trovan. Eleven children died and many others were left disabled.

    The more things change, the more they stay the same.

    Case in point: it has just been announced that scientists working for the Department of Homeland Security will begin releasing various gases and particles on crowded subway platforms as part of an experiment aimed at testing bioterror airflow in New York subways.

    The government insists that these gases being released into the subways by the DHS are nontoxic and do not pose a health risk. It’s in our best interests, they say, to understand how quickly a chemical or biological terrorist attack might spread. And look how cool the technology is—say the government cheerleaders—that scientists can use something called DNATrax to track the movement of microscopic substances in air and food. (Imagine the kinds of surveillance that could be carried out by the government using trackable airborne microscopic substances you breathe in or ingest…)

    Mind you, this is the same government agency that has been likened to a “wasteful, growing, fear-mongering beast” by the Washington Post.

    This is the same government that in 1949 sprayed bacteria into the Pentagon’s air handling system, then the world’s largest office building. In 1950, special ops forces sprayed bacteria from Navy ships off the coast of Norfolk and San Francisco, in the latter case exposing all of the city’s 800,000 residents. In 1953, government operatives staged “mock” anthrax attacks on St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Winnipeg using generators placed on top of cars. Local governments were reportedly told that “‘invisible smokescreen[s]’ were being deployed to mask the city on enemy radar.” Later experiments covered territory as wide-ranging as Ohio to Texas and Michigan to Kansas. In 1965, the government’s experiments in bioterror took aim at Washington’s National Airport, followed by a 1966 experiment in which army scientists exposed a million subway NYC passengers to airborne bacteria that causes food poisoning.

    And this is the same government that has taken every bit of technology sold to us as being in our best interests—GPS devices, surveillance, nonlethal weapons, etc.—and used it against us, to track, control and trap us.

    So when so-called conspiracy theorists—including the late rock musician Prince and civil rights activist Dick Gregory—suggest that those streaks crisscrossing the sky are chemtrails laced with behavior-modifying chemicals, you might want to tamp down on that kneejerk reaction that chalks them up as nuts. After all, the government has done it before, lacing the fog over San Francisco with bioweapons (delivered by Navy ships moored nearby). In fact, not that long ago, the Obama administration declared by way of executive order that federal agencies are now authorized to conduct behavioral experiments on U.S. citizens in order to advance government initiatives?

    Are you getting my drift yet?

    What kind of government perpetrates such horrific acts on human beings, whether or not they are citizens? Is there any difference between a government mindset that justifies experimenting on prisoners because they’re “cheaper than chimpanzees” and a government that sanctions jailhouse strip searches of individuals charged with minor infractions simply because it’s easier on a jail warden’s workload?

    And when all is said and done, what kind of people rationalize, write off, or just turn a blind eye to such monstrous acts of inhumanity?

    Shame on the government, yes, but shame on us for blindly trusting that the government’s motives and priorities have changed.

    Shame on us for believing that the government’s bloody wars on terror are keeping us safe in any way. Shame on us for placing greater value on the government’s phantom promises of security over our own hard-won freedoms. Shame on us for allowing our government, our freedoms and the rule of law to be held hostage at the end of a military-issued gun.

    Shame on us for letting ourselves be played for fools by individuals who care nothing for us, our our health, our happiness, our welfare, our livelihood, our property or our freedoms. Shame on us for letting ourselves be bamboozled about the war on terror, deceived about the need to trade our freedoms for greater security, and conned into believing that turning America into a battlefield will actually make us safer. Shame on us for letting ourselves be double-crossed by politicians who promise change and reform and hoodwinked into believing that politics is the answer to what ails the nation. Shame on us for not doing a better job of ensuring that future generations have some hope for a better, freer future.

    Most of all, shame on us that even after being repeatedly tricked, deluded, misled, swindled and betrayed by government officials, even after learning about the many ways in which we have been duped and deluded, shame on us for still falling for the government’s trickery, chicanery, hocus-pocus, scams and lies.

    Shame on us, yes, but still, the question remains: why? What’s in it for the government?

    Perhaps the answer lies in The Third Man, Carol Reed’s influential 1949 film starring Joseph Cotten and Orson Welles. In the film, set in a post-WW II Vienna, rogue war profiteer Harry Lime has come to view human carnage with a callous indifference, unconcerned that the diluted penicillin he’s been trafficking underground has resulted in the tortured deaths of young children.

    Challenged by his old friend Holly Martins to consider the consequences of his actions, Lime responds, “In these days, old man, nobody thinks in terms of human beings. Governments don’t, so why should we?”

    “Have you ever seen any of your victims?” asks Martins.

    “Victims?” responds Limes, as he looks down from the top of a Ferris wheel onto a populace reduced to mere dots on the ground. “Look down there. Tell me. Would you really feel any pity if one of those dots stopped moving forever? If I offered you twenty thousand pounds for every dot that stopped, would you really, old man, tell me to keep my money, or would you calculate how many dots you could afford to spare? Free of income tax, old man. Free of income tax – the only way you can save money nowadays.”

    In other words, we are citizens of a government that has dehumanized us and reduced us to little more than faceless numbers, statistics and economic units.

    What’s in it for the government? Money and power. Or as John Lennon summed it up, “I think we’re being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I’m liable to be put away as insane for expressing that.”

  • Goldman Closes "Short Gold" Recommendation With 4.5% Loss; Will Continue Buying Gold From Its Clients

    Back on February 15, just as the USD was about to plunge unleashing a global risk-on rally as a result of “Yuan stability”, Goldman triumphantly announcecd its latest trading recommendation: short gold (at $1,205) with a target of $1000 and a 7% stop loss.

     

    This being Goldman – the one hedge fund whose prop traders immediately take the other side of all trades pitches to clients – said clients were immediately and brutally taken to the cleaners as the consequence of a tumbling dollar (another trade that Goldman got disastrously wrong) was soaring gold. And that is precisely what happened. After that, unofficially, it took just two and a half months for Goldman to get stopped out of its short gold recommendation, which as we first noted, happened on April 29, when its the price soared above $1,300 breaching Goldman’s stop. Officially, Goldman’s Jeff Currie decided to take his time, although he too finally threw in the towel today admitting Goldman was wrong yet again with one more trading recommendation (recall that Goldman had earlier been stopped out and lost money on 5 of its Top 6 trades for 2016 in just over a month).

    But instead of doing the right thing and also admitting it has zero idea how to trade gold, where it will go next or what the catalysts are, Goldman decided to change its price targets, and instead of predicting $1,100/oz in three months, Goldman has generously pushed its price target by $100 higher to $1200 (and $1,050 over 12 months), even as gold traded just shy of $1300 a few days ago and only dropped as a result of the recent USD rally.

    In other words, Goldman admits it was wrong, but still remains indirectly short as it is still hoping to skewer even more muppets on the very same trade it has gotten wrong for the past 3 months… and in the process buy their gold if possible.

    Here is the “explanation”

    Our US economists recently reduced their forecast for Fed funds rate hikes over the next 12 months from 100 bp to 50 bp. Corresponding with this, our global rates team has lowered its forecast profile for 10-year US real rates over the same period. As a result, we reduce the downside to our gold price forecast, raising the 3/6/12 month forecast profile to $1,200/1,180/1,150/oz from $1,100/1,050/1,000/oz. Our new year average price forecasts are $1,202/1,150/1,150/oz from $1,124/1,000/1,050/oz. Though we forecast that gold prices will decline from spot over the next 3-12 months (with c.5%-9% downside), for reasons which we detail below, the changes to our economists’ rates forecasts act to reduce the degree of downside to our modelled gold price profile and thus change the risk-reward of our previously implemented short gold trade recommendation (published February 15), which we close as a result at a c.4.5% loss.

    Or, you could have simply remembered that you had a 7% stop and that you were stopped out 2 weeks ago, which any trader would know very well if he actually had the trade on instead of just using it as bait for clients to unload their gold. Perhaps Mr. Currie can also tell us what Goldman’s “flow” trader P&L was on the “short gold” trade. 

    On the other hand, since nothing could have been more bearish for gold than Goldman going outright long the metal, we are delighted that Goldman is still buying gold – as it asks its clients to sell it their gold – because it means that the upside for gold remains unlimited. This is also the opposite of what Goldman has tried to – yet again – convince the handful of Kermits who bother to even listen to the taxpayer bailed out hedge fund with the worst trading recommendation record since Tom Stolper (incidentally another former Goldmanite) and of course Dennis Gartman.

    For those who care, this is what else Currie said – it is mostly a verbatim copy of what he said in mid-February with the exception that he now admits he was wrong then, and that he is “rising” his target price by $100.

    In our view, the gold rally during 1Q16 was driven primarily by concerns about the ability of US policy rates to diverge, corresponding Fed dovishness, and US real rates weakness, as well as a depreciating US dollar (both against the G10 currencies as well as against the EM currencies, the latter on the back of a transitory China credit stimulus). Furthermore, we have seen the largest ever increase in gold net speculative positioning over the past three months, with net speculative length now near its post global financial crisis peak.

    Looking ahead, we see limited upside for gold pricing given the limited room for the Fed to surprise to the downside (the market is pricing c.16 bp by end of 2016 and less than one 25 bp Fed Funds rate hike over the next 12 months), limited room for the dollar to depreciate (net speculative positioning is the shortest it has been since early 2013, Exhibit 1, please see Global Markets Daily: The Dollar Bottom, published May 10, for details), and limited room for China to drive EM currency strength to contribute to dollar weakness.

     

    While the upside risks to gold pricing appear relatively limited from here, we see a number of catalysts for gold prices to moderate, including a more hawkish Fed and ultimately US policy rate divergence (Exhibit 3), corresponding with gradual dollar appreciation over the next 3-12 months. Indeed, while Friday’s jobs report was a modest disappointment, with a 160k rise in nonfarm payrolls, some downward revisions to prior months, and declines in both household employment and labor force participation that reversed some of the big gains of the prior six months, the bigger picture, in our view, is still one of gradual acceleration as the US labor market moves to full employment and temporary factors such as the weakness in energy, import, and healthcare costs become less important as we move through 2016. As such, we still see the economy on a path that will prompt the FOMC to restart the normalization process before too long—most likely in September but perhaps as early as July. After the soggy numbers of the past two quarters, we expect GDP growth to rebound to a 2¼% pace as the drag from the earlier FCI tightening (Exhibit 5)—which by our estimates has subtracted about one per centage point from growth recently—abates and the fundamentals for domestic demand, especially housing and consumption, remain favorable.

    This next sentence is our favorite:

    In addition, there are reasons to believe that the risk off environment which contributed to gold’s outperformance at the beginning of this year is less likely to repeat in the near future as confidence in Chinese growth, Chinese currency stability, and the potential for a collapse in oil prices is much reduced.

    Why is it our favorite? Because just a few hours earlier another Goldman report warned that in its quest to keep the bond market stable, central banks may unleash “Financial Turbulence” and “Rate Shock.” We can only assume that Currie had no idea. It’s almost as if Goldman doesn’t even bother to pretend to have a coherent story when ripping clients off.

    As for Goldman’s vapid, deja vu conclusion…

    In terms of risks surrounding our bearish gold view, we view them as broadly balanced. An upside risk to our forecast is that lower-than-expected Chinese growth significantly impacts US equities, consumer confidence, and growth, thereby resulting in lower increases in real rates relative to our forecast profile. A downside risk relative to our base case is a large reduction in the pace of Chinese and Russian central bank buying (since mid last year, buying has been running at a very high rate of c.450 tonnes per annum).

    … it is missing just one thing: what is Goldman’s next stop loss, because that is where gold is really headed next.

  • Obama's Toilet Revolution

    Submitted by Mark Hanna via AmericanThinker.com,

    As a Western revolutionary, Obama has been relentless in his efforts over the last seven years to use all the machinery and influence of government, whether illegally (since 2012, the U.S. Supreme Court has unanimously ruled 13 times that Obama’s actions have been unconstitutional) or legally, to fundamentally transform America into the neo-Marxist democracy he and his father have long dreamed about.

    His most recent stunt to this end is to use North Carolina’s “bathroom” law, or House Bill 2, as a springboard for the U.S. Justice Department to issue a sweeping dictate in the name of social fairness and civil rights.  House Bill 2, which requires individuals to use the public bathrooms and showers that correspond to their birth sex, was drafted and passed in order to negate an unconstitutional Charlotte city ordinance that forced different sexes to share public accommodations.

    What’s most ominous about Obama’s latest maneuver is that the letter sent by the Justice Department to North Carolina governor Pat McCrory stakes out a position for the federal government that would apply to every business in America, as well as all universities and colleges that receive federal funds, that are subject to Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

    According to Gov. McCrory, the demand letter (read the letter here) sent to top North Carolina officials should be understood as follows:

    One thing the nation has to realize is this is no longer just a North Carolina issue. This order, this letter by the Justice Department, is saying that every company in the United States of America that has more than 15 employees are going to have to abide by the federal government’s regulations on bathrooms.  So now the federal government is going to tell almost every private sector company in the United States who can or cannot come into their bathrooms, restrooms, their shower facilities for their employees. And they’re also telling every university in the United States of America — it’s not just North Carolina — they’re now telling every university that accepts federal funding that boys who may think they’re a girl can go into a locker room or a restroom or shower facility.

    Barack Obama and his militant Justice Department don’t care at all about individuals confused or rebellious about their gender.  As with all revolutionary activity, the goal is to seize upon crisis in order to further the aggrandizement of the State, and its control over every competing area of society.

    Obama’s response to North Carolina is a classic leftist maneuver of setting up a straw man, or transgender in this case, to ensure and continue to expand federal power over the states.  From a revolutionary perspective, states with their 10th Amendment constitutional sovereignty are antithetical to the long-term objective of an international socialist system.   

    It is critical now for states to recognize their pivotal constitutional power and determine to use every available resource to counter, correct, and ultimately crush the left’s war against the Constitution and the 10th Amendment.  Recall the efforts made by the revolutionary left to force a Supreme Court ruling on gay marriage and tear down state marriage laws.  Their attack on North Carolina is not at all different in both tactic and objective.

    Gov. McCrory seems to recognize the enormous significance of this fight and has bravely turned the table on Obama and his comrades at Justice by announcing today that North Carolina will sue.  Time will tell if his response will work.  In the interim, however, other governors from states across the country should quickly join McCrory in making this a national fight for the 10th Amendment and state sovereignty.

    The bullying left and their fellow-traveling mega-corporations such as Apple, Facebook, PayPal, and Wells Fargo are convinced that the threat of economic warfare against the states will tame them.  But instead of cowering as other Republican governors have before him, Gov. McCrory launched a counterrevolution and pushed back with the support of many other companies and organizations that are not part of Obama’s not so new economic and social policies of revolution.

  • Hillary Clinton Son-In-Law's Hedge Fund Shuts Down Greek Fund After 90% Loss

    Despite having Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein as an investor and being Bill and Hillary Clinton’s son-in-law, Marc Mezvinsky (and two former colleagues from Goldman Sachs who manage Eaglevale Partners hedge fund) told investors in a letter last February they had been “incorrect” on Greece, generating staggering losses for the firm’s main Eaglevale Hellenic Opportunity, a/k/a the “Greek recovery” fund during most of its life. By ‘incorrect’ the Clinton heir apparent meant the $25 million Eaglevale Greek fund had lost a stunning 48% in 2014.

    Which is not to say the larger fund it was part of is doing any better: as of last February, Eaglevale had spent 27 of its 34 months in operation below its high-water mark. We are confident that 13 months later the numbers are 40 out of 47, respectively.

     

    As a reminder, 2013, Institutional Investor proclaimed Mezvinsky “a hedge fund rising star“…

    In late 2011, Marc Mezvinsky co-founded New York-based, macro-focused hedge fund firm Eaglevale Partners with Bennett Grau and Mark Mallon, two Goldman Sachs Group proprietary traders whom he’d gotten to know when they all worked at the bank. Best known as the husband of Chelsea Clinton, Mezvinsky, 35, who has a BA in religious studies and philosophy from Stanford University and an MA in politics, philosophy and economics from the University of Oxford, has been quietly building his finance career. Before launching his own firm, the longtime Clinton family friend was a partner and global macro portfolio manager at New York- and Rio de Janeiro-based investment house 3G Capital. Eaglevale manages more than $400 million.

    Alas, he was anything but, and instead of having a real grasp of macroeconomic events, or how to – you know – hedge, he decided to dump millions in Greece just before the country entered a death spiral that culminated with its third bailout, capital controls, insolvent banks and a terminally crippled economy.

    Meanwhile, things went from terrible to abysmal for both the clueless hedge fund manager and his LPs, and as the NYT reports, Hillary Clinton’s son-in-law is finally shutting down the Greece-focused fund, after losing nearly 90% of its value.  Investors were told last month that Eaglevale Hellenic Opportunity would finally be put out of its misery and would shutter.

    The closure comes as the worst possible time: we are confident that Donald Trump will be quick to work it into his political attack routine.

    Mr. Chelsea Clinton and his partners began raising money in 2011 from investors for the firm’s flagship fund. Since then, that portfolio has posted uneven performance. A Stanford University graduate, Mr. Mezvinsky worked at Goldman for eight years before leaving to join a private equity firm. He left that job to form Eaglevale with two longtime Goldman partners, Bennett Grau and Mark Mallon. The hedge fund firm is named after a bridge in Central Park.

    As noted above, some of the firm’s earliest investors were Goldman partners, including Lloyd C. Blankfein, Goldman’s chief executive officer, who let Eaglevale use his name in marketing the flagship fund. Ironically this is in addition to the hundreds of thousands of dollars that Goldman paid to Marc’s mother-in-law. One almost wonders who “benefits” Goldman was seeking to get out of this particular relationship.

    But on a less sarcastic note, we agree with the NYT that it is not at all clear why Eaglevale waited until this year to close the Hellenic fund, which already had lost about 40% of its value by early last year.

    Perhaps it was just hope that the Greek people would simply pick up and rebuild the devastated economy from scratch, ideally without getting paid (the word slavery comes to mind), thereby miraculously rescuing his investment. In letters to investors in 2014, Mezvinsky and his partners expressed confidence that Greece would soon be on the path to a “sustainable recovery.” But by the end of that year, Eaglevale’s leaders began to acknowledge that their perspective on the situation in Greece may have been wrong. The fund had earlier stopped taking in new money.

    We will conclude by stealing the NYT’s tongue in cheek humor:

    The one silver lining for the fund’s investors from all of this is that they will have a somewhat larger tax loss on investments to claim next year.

    True: it’s all funny if one assumes that none of the people who were invested in Mezvinsky’s pet fund actually needed the cash (we doubt Blankfein will lose sleep over a few million). For all those others who actually did, the joke’s on them.

  • API Reports Another 3.5 Million Barrel Build in Oil Inventories (Video)

    By EconMatters

     

    The EIA Report is tomorrow, but under any interpretation of the API numbers the Bulls will still be waiting for their big Drawdown EIA Report. It looks like we just keep replacing US Production with OPEC Production, namely Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran excess production.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • The War In Afghanistan Has Turned A Generation Of Children Into Heroin Addicts

    Submitted by Michaela Whitton via TheAntiMedia.org,

    One of the many catastrophic legacies left behind by the longest war in U.S. history is that Afghanistan produces 90% of the world’s opium. As with most parts of the world, the most vulnerable pay the heaviest price of war, and the country has faced a harrowing escalation in the number of child heroin addicts.

    “What’s happened in Afghanistan over the last 13 years has been the flourishing of a narco-state that is really without any parallel in history,” Kabul-based journalist Matthieu Aikins told Democracy Now back in 2014.

    Adding that all levels of Afghan society are involved in the flourishing trade — which became undeniably worse after the U.S.-led invasion — Aikins accused both the Taliban and government-linked officials of profiting from the crisis. He claimed the U.S., in its quest for vengeance against the Taliban and Al Qaeda, not only cooperated with warlords but ignored corruption by criminals whose human rights abuses created the conditions that led to the rise of the Taliban in the first place.

    As a result, Afghanistan now produces twice as much opium as it did in the year 2000, and the booming trade now accounts for 50% of the country’s GDP. Since the cartels began refining their poppy harvests into addictive and profitable heroin, the street price for “powder,” as it is known, is the cheapest in the world — and it costs less than food in the war-torn country.

    Lost childhoods

    The psychological damage of war, together with the flood of cheap heroin, has led to a doubling in addiction rates over the last five years. In the Channel 4 documentary, Unreported World, Ramita Naval explores a harrowing escalation in child addiction. In the ravaged country, where access to drug treatment is severely limited, she visits a rehabilitation centre where children as young four or five — haunted by horrors they have witnessed — attempt to regain lost childhoods.

    The only treatment centre in Kabul to help children, it was originally set up to treat women. The 20-bed unit, which forces kids off the drugs by making them go cold turkey is, ironically, funded by the U.S. State Department. Naval is introduced to a number of very small children who are at varying stages of the 45-day treatment programme.

    At one point, the reporter finds it hard to contain her dismay at being in a room full of drug-addicted children. One describes becoming addicted after taking the drug for toothache, while another became hooked after inhaling his father’s smoke. Doctor Latifa Hamidi said in the past two years she has seen a 60% increase in the number of child addicts at the centre. Claiming the future of the country is at stake, she added, “There is going to be a future generation of drug addicts that need help and aren’t going to be able to work.”

    The problem is so severe among the child population that many are taking desperate measures to fund their habits. Naval spoke to a 13-year-old boy at a safe house who began using when his parents were killed by shelling. From the age of eight, he was paid by drug addicts to guard them while they smoked. Unsurprisingly, he then developed his own habit, which he funds with child prostitution. Many addicted children sell their bodies, as there are no jobs or work.

    Fifteen-year-old Ali has been using heroin for the past two years. His mother is dead and his father fled to Iran. He smoked a gram of heroin, which cost £1, on camera as he explained how he became addicted.

    The young boy’s trauma began when, after witnessing a suicide bomb attack in Kabul, he went to stay with relatives in the countryside. While he was there, U.S. forces bombed his village, killing dozens of people; he described seeing bodies scattered everywhere. The young boy and other villagers had to pick up the body parts and put them in plastic bags. Claiming the war breaks his heart — and making his descent into drug use more understandable — he said, “I’d rather not live, than live through this war.”

    Behind closed doors

    With drug use haram, or forbidden, in Islam, addiction is seen as shameful. Consequently, many of society’s most vulnerable are often too ashamed to ask for help. As a result, a hidden epidemic has arisen, affecting thousands of parents and children behind closed doors. Naval accompanies a medical team of doctors and social workers who are frequently attacked and beaten during their work:

    “More and more children are becoming addicted because the country is awash with opium,” the doctor said. “If the government doesn’t do anything about this situation, Afghanistan is going to face another disaster,” she added.

    Claiming that of 130, 000 families in the area, 60% are addicted to drugs, the doctor explained many men pick up their addictions while working in neighbouring Iran and Pakistan. After using drugs as a stimulant to help them work longer hours, they return, bringing their addictions with them — often passing their new habits on to entire families.

    Opium is also part of daily life in Afghanistan’s refugee camps, where the internally displaced are left to fend for themselves. Government doctors rarely visit, and agencies are ill-equipped to deal with child addicts — many whom have fled fighting in other provinces and are left with devastating injuries as a result of the war. Locals claim that even if painkillers were available, opium is much cheaper and more effective.

    Three-year-old Zarima lost her arm when her village was attacked during fighting between the government and insurgents. With no doctors or medicine, her father had no option but to give her opium. He had tried to stop the treatment a number of times, but she suffered severe withdrawal symptoms. Other locals described being forced to perform amputations due to lack of medical help.

    Cheaper than food

    Entire villages of people are addicted to opium, and Naval visits one family where three out of six of children are addicted. One little boy, who began smoking at the age of three, was sprawled out next to his father, completely out of it. He explained that he needs to smoke three times a day or he suffers painful withdrawals. When asked if he ever goes out and plays with other kids, he shook his head.

    The boy’s mother originally gave him opium to cure a stomach ache. Now the family uses the drug for a very different reason. “There is not enough food to feed the whole family,” his mother said.“When you smoke you lose your appetite,” she added, explaining that while food for the family of nine costs £3 a day, a day’s worth of opium costs £2.

    Summing up the hidden side of the devastation in the war-ravaged country, Naval was frank and said that while the world is focused on the fight against the Taliban, the country is being consumed from within — by an equally serious and long-term threat.

  • Caught On Tape: This Is What Happened When An MEP Tried To Read The TTIP Text

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    TTIP is just one of several phony “trade” deals written by corporate lawyers and lobbyists, and negotiated in secret between the Obama administration and various world leaders. This particular scam involves the U.S. and Europe, and it has seen increased public resistance and attention as of late, something I highlighted in the post, Leaked Documents Expose the TTIP Trade Deal as a Subversive Imperial Scam.

    Now watch what happened when a MEP (member of European parliament) tried to read the thing. It’s very blurry, but you’ll get the point.

    Democracy this is not.

    Noam Chomsky recently summarized the true purpose of these so-called “trade” deals eloquently in the following paragraph:

    In the contemporary global order, the institutions of the masters hold enormous power, not only in the international arena but also within their home states, on which they rely to protect their power and to provide economic support by a wide variety of means. When we consider the role of the masters of mankind, we turn to such state policy priorities of the moment as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, one of the investor-rights agreements mislabeled “free-trade agreements” in propaganda and commentary. They are negotiated in secret, apart from the hundreds of corporate lawyers and lobbyists writing the crucial details. The intention is to have them adopted in good Stalinist style with “fast track” procedures designed to block discussion and allow only the choice of yes or no (hence yes). The designers regularly do quite well, not surprisingly. People are incidental, with the consequences one might anticipate.

    Thanks for playin’ everyone.

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Today’s News 10th May 2016

  • Caught On Tape: This Is What Happened When An MEP Tried To Read The TTIP Text

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    TTIP is just one of several phony “trade” deals written by corporate lawyers and lobbyists, and negotiated in secret between the Obama administration and various world leaders. This particular scam involves the U.S. and Europe, and it has seen increased public resistance and attention as of late, something I highlighted in the post, Leaked Documents Expose the TTIP Trade Deal as a Subversive Imperial Scam.

    Now watch what happened when a MEP (member of European parliament) tried to read the thing. It’s very blurry, but you’ll get the point.

    Democracy this is not.

    Noam Chomsky recently summarized the true purpose of these so-called “trade” deals eloquently in the following paragraph:

    In the contemporary global order, the institutions of the masters hold enormous power, not only in the international arena but also within their home states, on which they rely to protect their power and to provide economic support by a wide variety of means. When we consider the role of the masters of mankind, we turn to such state policy priorities of the moment as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, one of the investor-rights agreements mislabeled “free-trade agreements” in propaganda and commentary. They are negotiated in secret, apart from the hundreds of corporate lawyers and lobbyists writing the crucial details. The intention is to have them adopted in good Stalinist style with “fast track” procedures designed to block discussion and allow only the choice of yes or no (hence yes). The designers regularly do quite well, not surprisingly. People are incidental, with the consequences one might anticipate.

    Thanks for playin’ everyone.

  • How Much Liberty Do Americans Have Left?

    This post explains the liberties guaranteed in the Bill of Rights – the first 10 amendments to the United States Constitution – and provides a scorecard on the extent of the loss of each right.

    http://www.theispot.com/images/source/FredaLibertyUpended1.jpgPainting by Anthony Freda: www.AnthonyFreda.com

    First Amendment

    The 1st Amendment protects speech, religion, assembly and the press:

    Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

     

    The Supreme Court has also interpreted the First Amendment as protecting freedom of association.

    However, the government is arresting those speaking out … and violently crushing peaceful assemblies which attempt to petition the government for redress.

    A federal judge found that the law allowing indefinite detention of Americans without due process has a “chilling effect” on free speech. And see this and this.

    There are also enacted laws allowing the secret service to arrest anyone protesting near the president or other designated folks (that might explain incidents like this).

    Mass spying by the NSA violates our freedom of association.

    The threat of being labeled a terrorist for exercising our First Amendment rights certainly violates the First Amendment. The government is using laws to crush dissent, and it’s gotten so bad that even U.S. Supreme Court justices are saying that we are descending into tyranny. (And the U.S. is doing the same things that tyrannical governments have done for 5,000 years to crush dissent.)

    For example, the following actions may get an American citizen living on U.S. soil labeled as a “suspected terrorist” today:

    And holding the following beliefs may also be considered grounds for suspected terrorism:

    And see this. (Of course, Muslims are more or less subject to a separate system of justice in America.)

    And 1st Amendment rights are especially chilled when power has become so concentrated that the same agency which spies on all Americans also decides who should be assassinated.

    Additionally:

    Despite the clear protections found in the First Amendment, the freedoms described therein are under constant assault. Increasingly, Americans are being arrested and charged with bogus “contempt of cop” charges such as “disrupting the peace” or “resisting arrest” for daring to film police officers engaged in harassment or abusive practices. Journalists are being prosecuted for reporting on whistleblowers. States are passing legislation to muzzle reporting on cruel and abusive corporate practices. Religious ministries are being fined for attempting to feed and house the homeless. Protesters are being tear-gassed, beaten, arrested and forced into “free speech zones.” And under the guise of “government speech,” the courts have reasoned that the government can discriminate freely against any First Amendment activity that takes place within a government forum.

    Second Amendment

    The 2nd Amendment states:

    A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

    Gun control and gun rights advocates obviously have very different views about whether guns are a force for violence or for good.

    But even a top liberal Constitutional law expert reluctantly admits that the right to own a gun is as important a Constitutional right as freedom of speech or religion:

    Like many academics, I was happy to blissfully ignore the Second Amendment. It did not fit neatly into my socially liberal agenda.

     

    ***

     

    It is hard to read the Second Amendment and not honestly conclude that the Framers intended gun ownership to be an individual right. It is true that the amendment begins with a reference to militias: “A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.” Accordingly, it is argued, this amendment protects the right of the militia to bear arms, not the individual.

     

    Yet, if true, the Second Amendment would be effectively declared a defunct provision. The National Guard is not a true militia in the sense of the Second Amendment and, since the District and others believe governments can ban guns entirely, the Second Amendment would be read out of existence.

     

    ***

     

    More important, the mere reference to a purpose of the Second Amendment does not alter the fact that an individual right is created. The right of the people to keep and bear arms is stated in the same way as the right to free speech or free press. The statement of a purpose was intended to reaffirm the power of the states and the people against the central government. At the time, many feared the federal government and its national army. Gun ownership was viewed as a deterrent against abuse by the government, which would be less likely to mess with a well-armed populace.

     

    Considering the Framers and their own traditions of hunting and self-defense, it is clear that they would have viewed such ownership as an individual right — consistent with the plain meaning of the amendment.

     

    None of this is easy for someone raised to believe that the Second Amendment was the dividing line between the enlightenment and the dark ages of American culture. Yet, it is time to honestly reconsider this amendment and admit that … here’s the really hard part … the NRA may have been right. This does not mean that Charlton Heston is the new Rosa Parks or that no restrictions can be placed on gun ownership. But it does appear that gun ownership was made a protected right by the Framers and, while we might not celebrate it, it is time that we recognize it.

    And George Mason University School of Law Professor Nelson Lund and UCLA Law School Professor Adam Winkler note:

    Implicit in the debate between Federalists and Anti-Federalists were two shared assumptions. First, that the proposed new Constitution gave the federal government almost total legal authority over the army and militia. Second, that the federal government should not have any authority at all to disarm the citizenry. They disagreed only about whether an armed populace could adequately deter federal oppression.

     

    ***

     

    The Amendment was easily accepted because of widespread agreement that the federal government should not have the power to infringe the right of the people to keep and bear arms, any more than it should have the power to abridge the freedom of speech or prohibit the free exercise of religion.

    The gun control debate – including which weapons and magazines are banned – is still in flux …

    However:

    Americans remain powerless to defend themselves against SWAT team raids and government agents armed to the teeth with military weapons better suited for the battlefield than for a country founded on freedom. Police shootings of unarmed citizens continue to outrage communities, while little is really being done to demilitarize law enforcement agencies. Indeed, just recently, North Dakota became the first state to legalize law enforcement use of drones armed with weapons such as tear gas, rubber bullets, beanbags, pepper spray and Tasers.

    Third Amendment

    The 3rd Amendment prohibits the government forcing people to house soldiers:

    No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.

    A recent lawsuit by a Nevada family – covered by (Mother Jones, Fox News and Courthouse News – alleges violation of the Third Amendment.

    The military is also arguably quartering “digital” troops within our homes.

    Gordon S. Wood – Alva O. Way University Professor and Professor of History Emeritus at Brown University – points out:

    In its Declaration and Resolves on October 14, 1774, Congress protested the presence in a time of peace of a standing army and the quartering of troops in the colonies without their consent. Then in the Declaration of Independence of 1776, two of the many accusations Congress leveled against the king were his keeping “among us, in Times of Peace, Standing Armies, without the Consent or our Legislatures,” and his “quartering large Bodies of Armed Troops among us.”

     

    ***

     

    Some legal scholars have even begun to argue that the amendment might be applied to the government’s response to terror attacks and natural disasters, and to issues involving eminent domain and the militarization of the police.

    Indeed:

    With the police increasingly training like the military, acting like the military, and posing as military forces—complete with military weapons, assault vehicles, etc.—it is clear that we now have what the founders feared most—a standing army on American soil. Moreover, as a result of SWAT team raids (more than 80,000 a year) where police invade homes, often without warrants, and injure and even kill unarmed citizens, the barrier between public and private property has been done away with, leaving us with armed government agents who act as if they own our property.

    Indeed, the Founding Fathers fought the Revolutionary War partly to stop the type of militarized police that we now have.

     In America, Journalists Are Considered Terrorists
    Painting by Anthony Freda: www.AnthonyFreda.com.

    Fourth Amendment

    The 4th Amendment prevents unlawful search and seizure:

    The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

    But the government is spying on everything we dowithout any real benefit or justification (and see this).

    By one estimate,  the average American going about his daily business on any given day will be monitored, surveilled, spied on and tracked in more than 20 different ways, by both government and corporate eyes and ears.

    (And things are getting worse, and the government will greatly expand its spying in the near future.)

    Indeed, experts say that the type of spying being carried out by the NSA and other agencies is exactly the kind of thing which King George imposed on the American colonists … which led to the Revolutionary War.

    And many Constitutional experts – such as Jonathan Turley – think that the police went too far in Boston with lockdowns and involuntary door-to-door searches.

    In reality:

    The Fourth Amendment has suffered the greatest damage in recent years and been all but eviscerated by an unwarranted expansion of police powers that include strip searches and even anal and vaginal searches of citizens, surveillance and intrusions justified in the name of fighting terrorism, as well as the outsourcing of otherwise illegal activities to private contractors. Case in point: Texas police forced a 21-year-old woman to undergo a warrantless vaginal search by the side of the road after she allegedly “rolled” through a stop sign.

     

    The use of civil asset forfeiture schemes to swell the coffers of police forces has also continued to grow in popularity among cash-strapped states. The federal government continues to strong-arm corporations into providing it with access to Americans’ private affairs, from emails and online transactions to banking and web surfing. Coming in the wake of massive leaks about the inner workings of the NSA and the massive secretive surveillance state, it was revealed that the government threatened to fine Yahoo $250,000 every day for failing to comply with the NSA’s mass data collection program known as PRISM. Meanwhile, AT&T has enjoyed a profitable and “extraordinary, decades-long” relationship with the NSA.

     

    The technological future appears to pose even greater threats to what’s left of our Fourth Amendment rights, with advances in biometric identification and microchip implants on the horizon making it that much easier for the government to track not only our movements and cyber activities but our very cellular beings. Barclays has already begun using a finger-scanner as a form of two-step authentication to give select customers access to their accounts. Similarly, Motorola has been developing thin “digital tattoos” that will ensure that a phone’s owner is the only person who may unlock it. Not to be overlooked are the aerial spies—surveillance drones—about to take to the skies in coming years, as well as the Drive Smart programs that will spy on you (your speed, movements, passengers, etc.) while you travel the nation’s highways and byways.


    Paintings by Anthony Freda: www.AnthonyFreda.com.

    Fifth Amendment

    The 5th Amendment addresses due process of law, eminent domain, double jeopardy and grand jury:

    No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

    But the American government has shredded the 5th Amendment by subjecting us to indefinite detention and taking away our due process rights.

    The government claims the right to assassinate or indefinitely detain any American citizen on U.S. citizen without any due process. And see this.

    For example, American citizens are being detained in Guantanamo-like conditions in Chicago … including:

    • Brutality
    • Being held in secret
    • Not even telling a suspect’s lawyer whether his client is being held?

    And see this, this and this.

    As such, the government is certainly depriving people of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.

    There are additional corruptions of 5th Amendment rights – such as property being taken for private purposes. And the right to remain silent is gone.

    The percentage of prosecutions in which a defendant is denied a grand jury is difficult to gauge, as there is so much secrecy surrounding many terrorism trials.

    HUNG LIBERTY (NYSE)Image by William Banzai

    Sixth Amendment

    The 6th Amendment guarantees the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury in the location where the crime allegedly occurred, to hear the criminal charges levied against us and to be able to confront the witnesses who have testified against us, as well as speedy criminal trials, and a public defender for those who cannot hire an attorney:

    In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defence.

    Subjecting people to indefinite detention or assassination obviously violates the 6th Amendment right to a speedy and public jury trial. In both cases, the defendants is “disposed of” without ever receiving any trial at all … let alone a speedy or public one. In neither case do they get a jury, a defense lawyer, or the right to call their own witnesses. And they often never even hear the charges against them.

    Indefinite detentions usually don’t occur where the alleged crime occurred, but at a black site.

    More and more commonly, the government prosecutes cases based upon “secret evidence” that they don’t show to the defendant … or sometimes even the judge hearing the case.

    The government uses “secret evidence” to spy on Americans, prosecute leaking or terrorism charges (even against U.S. soldiers) and even assassinate people. And see this and this.

    Secret witnesses are being used in some cases. And sometimes lawyers are not even allowed to read their own briefs.

    Indeed, even the laws themselves are now starting to be kept secret. And it’s about to get a lot worse.

    Moreover, government is “laundering” information gained through mass surveillance through other agencies, with an agreement that the agencies will “recreate” the evidence in a “parallel construction” … so they don’t have to admit that the evidence came from unconstitutional spying. This data laundering is getting worse and worse.

    A former top NSA official says that this is the opposite of following the Fourth Amendment, but is a “totalitarian process” which shows that we’re in a “police state”. (A second former top NSA official agrees.)

    And there are two systems of justice in America … one for the big banks and other fatcats, and one for everyone else. The government made it official policy not to prosecute fraud, even though fraud is the main business model adopted by Wall Street. Indeed, the biggest financial crime in world history, the largest insider trading scandal of all time, illegal raiding of customer accounts and blatant financing of drug cartels and terrorists have all been committed recently without any real criminal prosecution or jail time.

    On the other hand, government prosecutors are using the legal system to crush dissent and to silence whistleblowers.

    And some of the nation’s most powerful judges have lost their independence … and are in bed with the powers-that-be.

    Constitutional lawyer John Whitehead explains:

    The Fifth Amendment and the Sixth Amendment work in tandem. These amendments supposedly ensure that you are innocent until proven guilty, and government authorities cannot deprive you of your life, your liberty or your property without the right to an attorney and a fair trial before a civilian judge. However, in the new suspect society in which we live, where surveillance is the norm, these fundamental principles have been upended. Certainly, if the government can arbitrarily freeze, seize or lay claim to your property (money, land or possessions) under government asset forfeiture schemes, you have no true rights. That’s the crux of a case before the U.S. Supreme Court challenging the government’s use of asset forfeiture to strip American citizens of the funds needed to hire a defense attorney of their choosing.

    Seventh Amendment

    The 7th Amendment guarantees trial by jury in federal court for civil cases:

    In Suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury, shall be otherwise re-examined in any Court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law.

    But there are two systems of justice in Americaone for the big banks and other fatcats, and one for everyone else. So good luck going after the powers-that-be.

    And the World Justice Project – a bipartisan, independent group with honorary chairs including numerous current and former Supreme Court Justices – released a report saying that Americans have less access to justice than most wealthy countries … and many developing nations. The report finds that Americans have less access to justice than Botswanans, and that only the wealthy have the resources to protect rights using the court system:

    For example, Germans sue equally whether they are rich or poor … but in America, only the wealthy have the resources to protect rights using the court system:

    (And the austerity caused by the highest levels of inequality in world history – which are in turn is caused by socialist actions by our government, which have destroyed the Founding Fathers’ vision of prosperity – is causing severe budget cuts to the courts, resulting in the wheels of justice slowing down considerably.)

    Federal judges have also recently decided that they can pre-judge cases before the plaintiff even has the chance to conduct discovery … and throw cases out if they don’t like plaintiff’s case.

    And:

    The populace has no idea of what’s in the Constitution—civic education has virtually disappeared from most school curriculums—that inevitably translates to an ignorant jury incapable of distinguishing justice and the law from their own preconceived notions and fears. However, as a growing number of citizens are coming to realize, the power of the jury to nullify the government’s actions—and thereby help balance the scales of justice—is not to be underestimated. Jury nullification reminds the government that it’s “we the people” who can and should be determining what laws are just, what activities are criminal and who can be jailed for what crimes.

    Painting by Anthony Freda: www.AnthonyFreda.com

    Eighth Amendment

    The 8th Amendment prohibits cruel and unusual punishment:

    Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.

    Indefinite detention and assassination are obviously cruel and unusual punishment.

    The widespread system of torture carried out in the last 10 years – with the help of other countriesviolates the 8th Amendment. Many want to bring it back … or at least justify its past use.

    While Justice Scalia disingenuously argues that torture does not constitute cruel and unusual punishment because it is meant to produce information – not punish – he’s wrong. It’s not only cruel and unusual … it is technically a form of terrorism.

    And government whistleblowers are being cruelly and unusually punished with unduly harsh sentences meant to intimidate anyone else from speaking out.

    Moreover:

    A California appeals court is being asked to consider “whether years of unpredictable delays from conviction to execution” constitute cruel and unusual punishment. For instance, although 900 individuals have been sentenced to death in California since 1978, only 13 have been executed. As CBS News reports, “More prisoners have died of natural causes on death row than have perished in the death chamber.”

    Ninth Amendment

    The 9th Amendment provides that people have other rights, even if they aren’t specifically listed in the Constitution:

    The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.

    We can debate what our inherent rights as human beings are. I believe they include the right to a level playing field, and access to non-toxic food and water. You may disagree.

    But everyone agrees that the government should not actively encourage fraud and manipulation. However, the government – through its malignant, symbiotic relation with big corporations – is interfering with our aspirations for economic freedom, safe food and water (instead of arsenic-laden, genetically engineered junk), freedom from undue health hazards such as irradiation due to government support of archaic nuclear power designs, and a level playing field (as opposed to our crony capitalist system in which the little guy has no shot due to redistribution of wealth from the middle class to the super-elite, and government support of white collar criminals).

    By working hand-in-glove with giant corporations to defraud us into paying for a lower quality of life, the government is trampling our basic rights as human beings.

    Tenth Amendment

    The 10th Amendment provides that powers not specifically given to the Federal government are reserved to the states or individual:

    The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

    Two of the central principles of America’s Founding Fathers are:

    (1) The government is created and empowered with the consent of the people

     

    and

     

    (2) Separation of powers

    Today, most Americans believe that the government is threatening – rather than protecting – freedom. We’ve become more afraid of our government than of terrorists, and believe that the government is no longer acting with the “consent of the governed“.

    And the federal government is trampling the separation of powers by stepping on the toes of the states and the people. For example, former head S&L prosecutor Bill Black – now a professor of law and economics – notes:

    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the resident examiners and regional staff of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency [both] competed to weaken federal regulation and aggressively used the preemption doctrine to try to prevent state investigations of and actions against fraudulent mortgage lenders.

    Indeed, the federal government is doing everything it can to stick its nose into every aspect of our lives … and act like Big Brother.

    Conclusion: While a few of the liberties enshrined in the Bill of Rights still exist, the vast majority are under heavy assault.

    Other Constitutional Provisions … and The Declaration of Independence

    In addition to the trampling of the Bill of Rights, the government has also trashed the separation of powers enshrined in the main body of the Constitution.

    The government is also engaging in activities which the Founding Fathers fought against, such as taxation without representation (here and here), cronyism, deference to central banks, etc.

    As the preamble to the Declaration of Independence shows, the American government is still carrying out many of the acts the Founding Fathers found most offensive:

    He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures. [Background here and here]

     

    He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power. [Background here, here, here, here and here]

     

    ***

     

    He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation: [Background]

     

    ***

     

    For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences [Background]

     

    ***

     

    He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the

    Head of a civilized nation. [Background]

     

    ***

     

    He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us. [Background here, here and here]

  • Paul Craig Roberts Warns 'Killary' Will Be "The Last American President"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Do you remember all the hopes Americans had for Obama when we elected him to his first term? Painful memories. He betrayed the voters on every one of his promises. There was no change, except for the worst as Obama went on to become one of the most vicious war criminals in world history. Despite his horrific record, we re-elected him, only to have US economic policy turn against the people in order to bail out at our expense the mega-banks and the One Percent.

    Now Obama is coercing Asia and Europe to turn the governments of their countries over to rapacious American corporations empowered by TPP and TTIP to subordinate all interests to their profits.

    Here is Pepe Escobar on how the great and wonderful United States treats its enserfed vassals:

    “Hardball, predictably, is the name of the game. Washington no less than threatened to block EU car exports [to the US] to force the EU to buy [Monsanto’s] genetically engineered fruits and vegetables.”

    Now we face the prospect of electing an even worse president than Obama—Killary Clinton. Killary is the bought-and-paid-for property of Wall Street, Israel, and the military-security complex. She will bring back to power the totally discredited neoconservatives, and the US will proceed with its butchery and slaughter of other countries and all reformist governments everywhere.

    The question is: will enough insouciant Americans align with the One Percent, the neocons, the men-hating feminists, homosexuals, the transgendered, and other “preferred minorities” to put the US presidency in the hands of an aggressive, corrupt person with a conscience deficit? That is the goal toward which the presstitutes are driving the brainwashed.

    If we end up with Killary, neither the US nor the world will survive the mistake. She will be the last American president.

    Killary is compromised with secret agendas, and secret agendas lead to conflict and war. With a crazed President Killary who declared Russian Presient Vladimir Putin, the world’s leading peacemaker, to be “the new Hitler,” with crazed American generals who declare Russia to be “an existential threat to the United States,” and with the insane neoconservatives back in the saddle determined to impose American hegemony on the rest of the world, Killary’s election will terminate life on earth.

    From the Archive:

    September 28, 2014

    Washington’s Secret Agendas

    One might think that by now even Americans would have caught on to the constant stream of false alarms that Washington sounds in order to deceive the people into supporting its hidden agendas.

    The public fell for the lie that the Taliban in Afghanistan are terrorists allied with al Qaeda. Americans fought a war for 13 years that enriched Dick Cheney’s firm, Halliburton, and other private interests only to end in another Washington failure.

    The public fell for the lie that Saddam Hussein in Iraq had “weapons of mass destruction” that were a threat to America and that if the US did not invade Iraq Americans risked a “mushroom cloud going up over an American city.” With the rise of ISIS, this long war apparently is far from over. Billions of dollars more in profits will pour into the coffers of the US military security complex as Washington fights those who are redrawing the false Middle East boundaries created by the British and French after WW I when the British and French seized territories of the former Ottoman Empire.

    The American public fell for the lies told about Gaddafi in Libya. The formerly stable and prosperous country is now in chaos.

    The American public fell for the lie that Iran has, or is building, nuclear weapons. Sanctioned and reviled by the West, Iran has shifted toward an Eastern orientation, thereby removing a principal oil producer from Western influence.

    The public fell for the lie that Assad of Syria used “chemical weapons against his own people.” The jihadists that Washington sent to overthrow Assad have turned out to be, according to Washington’s propaganda, a threat to America.

    The greatest threat to the world is Washington’s insistence on its hegemony. The ideology of a handful of neoconservatives is the basis for this insistence. We face the situation in which a handful of American neoconservative psychopaths claim to determine the fate of countries.

    Many still believe Washington’s lies, but increasingly the world sees Washington as the greatest threat to peace and life on earth. The claim that America is “exceptional and indispensable” is used to justify Washington’s right to dictate to other countries.

    The casualties of Washington’s bombings are invariably civilians, and the deaths will produce more recruits for ISIS. Already there are calls for Washington to reintroduce “boots on the ground” in Iraq. Otherwise, Western civilization is doomed, and our heads will be cut off. The newly created propaganda of a “Russian threat” requires more NATO spending and more military bases on Russia’s borders. A “quick reaction force” is being created to respond to a nonexistent threat of a Russian invasion of the Baltics, Poland, and Europe.

    Usually it takes the American public a year, or two, three, or four to realize that it has been deceived by lies and propaganda, but by that time the public has swallowed a new set of lies and propaganda and is all concerned about the latest “threat.” The American public seems incapable of understanding that just as the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth threat was a hoax, so is the sixth threat, and so will be the seventh, eighth, and ninth.

    Moreover, none of these American military attacks on other countries has resulted in a better situation, as Vladimir Putin honestly states. Yet, the public and its representatives in Congress support each new military adventure despite the record of deception and failure.

    Perhaps if Americans were taught their true history in place of idealistic fairy tales, they would be less gullible and less susceptible to government propaganda. I have recommended Oliver Stone and Peter Kuznick’s The Untold History of the United States, Howard Zinn’s A People’s History of the United States, and now I recommend Stephen Kinzer’s The Brothers, the story of the long rule of John Foster and Allen Dulles over the State Department and CIA and their demonization of reformist governments that they often succeeded in overthrowing. Kinzer’s history of the Dulles brothers’ plots to overthrow six governments provides insight into how Washington operates today.

    In 1953 the Dulles brothers overthrew Iran’s elected leader, Mossadegh and imposed the Shah, thus poisoning American-Iranian relations through the present day. Americans might yet be led into a costly and pointless war with Iran, because of the Dulles brothers poisoning of relations in 1953.

    The Dulles brothers overthrew Guatemala’s popular president Arbenz, because his land reform threatened the interest of the Dulles brothers’ Sullivan & Cromwell law firm’s United Fruit Company client. The brothers launched an amazing disinformation campaign depicting Arbenz as a dangerous communist who was a threat to Western civilization. The brothers enlisted dictators such as Somoza in Nicaragua and Batista in Cuba against Arbenz. The CIA organized air strikes and an invasion force. But nothing could happen until Arbenz’s strong support among the people in Guatemala could be shattered. The brothers arranged this through Cardinal Spellman, who enlisted Archbishop Rossell y Arellano. “A pastoral letter was read on April 9, 1954 in all Guatemalan churches.”

    ?A masterpiece of propaganda, the pastoral letter misrepresented Arbenz as a dangerous communist who was the enemy of all Guatemalans. False radio broadcasts produced a fake reality of freedom fighter victories and army defections. Arbenz asked the UN to send fact finders, but Washington prevented that from happening. American journalists, with the exception of James Reston, supported the lies. Washington threatened and bought off Guatemala’s senior military commanders, who forced Arbenz to resign. The CIA’s chosen and well paid “liberator,” Col. Castillo Armas, was installed as Arbenz’s successor.

    We recently witnessed a similar operation in Honduras and Ukraine.

    President Eisenhower thanked the CIA for averting “a Communist beachhead in our hemisphere,” and Secretary of State John Foster Dulles gave a national TV and radio address in which he declared that the events in Guatemala “expose the evil purpose of the Kremlin.” This despite the uncontested fact that the only outside power operating in Guatemala was the Dulles brothers.

    What had really happened is that a democratic and reformist government was overthrown because it compensated United Fruit Company for the nationalization of the company’s fallow land at a value listed by the company on its tax returns. America’s leading law firm or perhaps more accurately, America’s foreign policy-maker, Sullivan & Cromwell, had no intention of permitting a democratic government to prevail over the interests of the law firm’s client, especially when senior partners of the firm controlled both overt and covert US foreign policy. The two brothers, whose family members were invested in the United Fruit Company, simply applied the resources of the CIA, State Department, and US media to the protection of their private interests.

    The extraordinary gullibility of the American people, the corrupt American media, and the indoctrinated and impotent Congress allowed the Dulles brothers to succeed in overthrowing a democracy.

    Keep in mind that this use of the US government in behalf of private interests occurred 60 years ago long before the corrupt Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama regimes. And no doubt in earlier times as well, as General Smedley Butler has attested.

    The Dulles brothers next intended victim was Ho Chi Minh. Ho, a nationalist leader, asked for America’s help in freeing Vietnam from French colonial rule. But John Foster Dulles, a self-righteous anti-communist, miscast Ho as a Communist Threat who was springing the domino theory on the Western innocents. Nationalism and anti-colonialism, Foster declared, were merely a cloak for communist subversion.

    Paul Kattenburg, the State Department desk officer for Vietnam suggested that instead of war, the US should give Ho $500 million in reconstruction aid to rebuild the country from war and French misrule, which would free Ho from dependence on Russian and Chinese support, and, thereby, influence. Ho appealed to Washington several times, but the demonic inflexibility of the Dulles brothers prevented any sensible response. Instead, the hysteria whipped-up over the “communist threat” by the Dulles brothers landed the United States in the long, costly, fiasco known as the Vietnam War.

    Kattenburg later wrote that it was suicidal for the US “to cut out its eyes and ears, to castrate its analytic capacity, to shut itself off from the truth because of blind prejudice.” Unfortunately for Americans and the world, castrated analytic capacity is Washington’s strongest suit.

    The Dulles brothers’ next targets were President Sukarno of Indonesia, Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba of Congo, and Fidel Castro. The plot against Castro was such a disastrous failure that it cost Allen Dulles his job. President Kennedy lost confidence in the agency and told his brother Bobby that after his reelection he was going to break the CIA into a thousand pieces. When President Kennedy removed Allen Dulles, the CIA understood the threat and struck first.

    Warren Nutter, my Ph.D. dissertation chairman, later Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, taught his students that for the US government to maintain the people’s trust, which democracy requires, the government’s policies must be affirmations of our principles and be openly communicated to the people. Hidden agendas, such as those of the Dulles brothers and the Clinton, Bush and Obama regimes, must rely on secrecy and manipulation and, thereby, arouse the distrust of the people. If Americans are too brainwashed to notice, many foreign nationals are not.

    The US government’s secret agendas have cost Americans and many peoples in the world tremendously. Essentially, the Dulles brothers created the Cold War with their secret agendas and anti-communist hysteria. Secret agendas committed Americans to long, costly, and unnecessary wars in Vietnam and the Middle East. Secret CIA and military agendas intending regime change in Cuba were blocked by President John F. Kennedy and resulted in the assassination of a president, who, for all his faults, was likely to have ended the Cold War twenty years before Ronald Reagan seized the opportunity.

    Secret agendas have prevailed for so long that the American people themselves are now corrupted. As the saying goes, “a fish rots from the head.” The rot in Washington now permeates the country.

    It is a rot that threatens the entire world.

  • Remembering The Lessons Of WWII: Putin Calls For A "Non-Aligned System Of International Security"

    While celebrating V-Day (marking the day the allies accepted Nazi surrender in WWII), Russian president Vladamir Putin said that Russia is all for creating a non-aligned system of international security to counter global terror.

    Picking up where Obama couldn’t finish, Russia gave a complete and unrelenting pounding to ISIS in Syria (albeit to protect an interest in having Assad’s regime stay in tact), and proved that it will not mess around with ISIS or any other terrorist extremists. Russia’s stance was reiterated during the V-Day celebration in Moscow, where in his speech, Putin referenced the violence that these extremist groups have brought to the world, and indicated that it is a threat to be taken seriously: “Today our civilization has faced brutality and violence – terrorism has become a global threat.”

    Putin also implied that the evil the world faces today is akin to that of the Nazi threat during WWII, and called upon everyone to remember the lessons of history, unify, and defeat the terrorists. “The lessons of history show that peace on our planet doesn’t establish itself, that you need to be on high alert. We must defeat this evil, and Russia is open to join forces with all countries and is ready to work on the creation of a modern, non-aligned system of international security.

    Of course, even after seemingly extending an olive branch to the United States, Putin couldn’t resist taking a quick jab at the Obama Administration’s complete incompetence when it comes to its handling of ISIS, noting that one of the lessons that should be learned from history is that “double standards, and short-sighted indulgence to those who are nurturing new criminal plans” is unacceptable.

    Make no mistake about it, Putin is positioning himself yet again as the strong leader that Obama clearly is not. As the U.S. continues to lose credibility around the world, Putin is making sure to take every opportunity to be there for everyone when they need real leadershipwho could have possibly seen that coming.


  • Cell Phone Addiction: 15 Numbers That Show The Ridiculous Obsession Americans Have With Their Phones

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    Have you ever had a family gathering, a social function or a business meeting ruined by someone that was obsessed with checking their cell phone?  I see this wherever I go, and it is one of the reasons why I don’t like to leave the house much.  No matter who is around and no matter how important what they are supposed to be doing may be, many Americans feel a deep, dark compulsion to constantly check their smartphones.  As you will see below, the average user checks his or her phone 35 times a day, but of course there are some people that are well into the triple digits.  Cell phone addiction is very real, and that is why there are actually rehab programs for this sort of thing.  Unfortunately, we simply can’t put the entire country into rehab, and this problem just keeps getting worse with each passing year.

    Below, I want to share with you 15 numbers that show how ridiculous our obsession with our smartphones has become.  I think that you will agree with me that our addiction to cell phones has gotten way out of control…

    1. The average smartphone user checks his or her phone 35 times a day.

     

    2. Common Sense media just released a new survey that found that 50 percent of American teens admit that they “feel addicted” to their smartphones.

     

    3. Close to 70 percent of parents and teens say that they have argued about smartphone usage.

     

    4. 77 percent of parents say that “their teenagers were sometimes distracted by their phones or tablets during time spent together with family”.

     

    5. Even though it is illegal in almost every state, 56 percent of parents confess that they check their mobile devices while drivig.

     

    6. 51 percent of teens admit that they have seen their parents check their smartphones while driving.

     

    7. A different survey found that 75 percent of all smartphone users admit that they have texted while driving at least once.

     

    8. 70 percent of smartphone users check their phones “within an hour of getting up”.

     

    9. 56 percent of smartphone users check their phones “within an hour of going to sleep”.

     

    10. 61 percent of smartphone users admit that “they regularly sleep with their cell or smartphone turned on under their pillow or next to their bed”.

     

    11. 48 percent of smartphone users check their devices over the weekend.

     

    12. 51 percent of smartphone users check their devices continuously during their vacations.

     

    13. 44 percent of smartphone users admit that they would experience “a great deal of anxiety” if the phone went missing and they were unable to replace it for a week.

     

    14. One survey discovered that the average cell phone user is on the device for 3 hours and 8 minutes a day.

     

    15. A different survey found that the average cell phone user actually spends 3.6 hours a day using it.

    No matter how you break these numbers down, they paint a very clear picture of a society that is absolutely addicted to these devices.

    Unfortunately, this is not something that a lot of us take very seriously.  For example, just consider the following excerpt from a CNN article.  The author openly acknowledges the obsession that she has with her smartphone, but she is obviously not too concerned about it…

    If you asked me whether I’m addicted to my smartphone or whether I overuse it, I would say absolutely not. I pride myself on not keeping my devices (I have two of them!) in my bedroom while I sleep, and keeping them out of reach on the kitchen counter when I’m home with my kids. But, every time I walk into the kitchen, I find myself checking my email and Twitter feed.

     

    There’s almost a gravitational pull toward my BlackBerry and iPhone even when I know the chance that there is anything I need to see at that moment is next to zero. I feel that same pull the minute I wake up and make checking my devices one of the first things I do once I get out of bed.

    To me, our society was so much better off when all we had were rotary phones that were physically tied to the wall.  In this day and age, we have a generation of people that have been trained to think that it is okay to pull out their mobile devices and stare into them like zombies wherever they are.  And especially among our young people there are many that start to get physically uncomfortable if they have to talk to you for more than five minutes without checking their phones.

    Of course this is just another indication of how “me-centered” our society has become.  Our phones have literally become extensions of ourselves, and we love to immerse ourselves in our own little worlds.

    There is something deeply narcissistic about our love affair with these smartphones.  Yes, I understand that millions of us have to use them for work, and in many ways they do make our lives much more convenient.

    But on the other hand they are greatly contributing to the sense of loneliness and isolation that so many Americans are feeling these days.

    Instead of having deep, meaningful relationships with our phones, perhaps we should try having deep, meaningful relationships with one another.

    After all, previous generations of Americans seemed to have done just fine without checking their phones every five minutes.

  • With A Historic -150% Net Short Position, Carl Icahn Is Betting On An Imminent Market Collapse

    Over the past year, based on his increasingly more dour media appearances, billionaire Carl Icahn had been getting progressively more bearish. At first, he was mostly pessimistic about junk bonds, saying last May that “what’s even more dangerous than the actual stock market is the high yield market.” As the year progressed his pessimism become more acute and in December he said that the “meltdown in high yield is just beginning.” It culminated in February when he said on CNBC that a “day of reckoning is coming.”

    Some skeptics thought that Icahn was simply trying to scare investors into selling so he could load up on risk assets at cheaper prices, however that line of thought was quickly squashed two weeks ago when Icahn announced to the shock of ever Apple fanboy that several years after his “no brainer” investment in AAPL, Icahn had officially liquidated his entire stake.

    As it turns out, Icahn’s AAPL liquidation was just the appetizer of how truly bearish the legendary investor has become.

    * * *

    As readers will recall, when it comes to what we believe is one of the world’s most bearish hedge funds, we traditionally highlight the net exposure of Horseman Global, which not only has been profitable for the past four years, it has done so while running a net short book. To the point, as of March 31, Horseman was net short by a record 98%.

     

    As it turns out this was nothing compare to Icahn’s latest net exposure.

    In the just disclosed 10-Q of Icahn’s investment vehicle, Icahn Enterprises LP in which the 80 year old holds a 90% stake, we find that as of March 31, Carl Icahn – who subsequently divested his entire long AAPL exposure – has been truly putting money, on the short side, where his mouth was in the past quarter. So much so that what on December 31, 2015 was a modest 25% net short, has since exploded into a gargantuan, and unprecedented for Icahn, 149% net short position.


    This is the result of a relatively flat long gross exposure of 164% resulting from a 156% equity and 8% credit long (a combined long exposure which is certainly far lower following the AAPL liquidation), and a soaring short book which has exploded from 150% as of March 31, 2015 to a whopping 313% one year later, on the back of 277% in gross short equity exposure and 36% short credit.

     

    Putting this number in context, in the history of IEP, not only has Icahn never been anywhere near this short, but just one year ago when he first started complaining about stocks, he was still 4% net long. Thos days are gone, and starting in Q3 and Q4, Icahn proceeded to wage into net short territory, with roughly -25% exposure, a number that has increased a record six-fold in just the last quarter!

    What is just as notable is the dramatic leverage involved on both sides of the flatline, but nothing compares to the near 3x equity leverage on the short side (this is not CDS). As a reminder, Icahn Enterprises used to be run as a hedge fund with outside investors, but Icahn returned outside money in 2011, leaving IEP and Icahn as the two dominant investors.  According to Barron’s, the entire fund appears to be about $5.8 billion, with $4 billion coming from Icahn personally. Which means that this is a very substantial bet in dollar terms.

    When asked about this unprecedented bearish position, Icahn Enterprises CEO Keith Cozza said during the May 5 earnings call that “Carl has been very vocal in recent weeks in the media about his negative views.” He certainly has been, although many though he was merely exagerating. He was not.

    We’re much more concerned about the market going down 20% than we are it going up 20%. And so the significant weighting to the short side reflects that,” Cozza added. 

    Icahn was not personally present at the conference call, however now that his bet on what is arguably a massive market crash has become public, we are confident he will be on both CNBC and Bloomberg TV in the coming days if not hours, to provide damage control and to avoid a panic as mom and pop investors scramble, and wonder just what does one of the world’s most astute investors see that they don’t. 

    Source

  • State Department "Unable To Find" Hillary Emails To IT Aide, Apologizes For Incompetence

    To say the least, it's going to be an interesting couple of months for Hillary Clinton. As the FBI probe into Clinton's handling of classified information makes its way to Clinton herself, the Clinton camp will also need be focused on trying to stave off attacks by GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.

    More on the FBI probe in a moment, but first, one of the key areas that Trump will inevitably be focused on is trying to frame Hillary Clinton as just another typical insider who despite the rhetoric, is as cozy with Wall Street as any other bought and paid for politician. To that end, the Republicans are not letting go of the fact that Hillary has yet to release any transcripts of her speeches given to Wall Street. As The Hill reports, Republican operatives are scouring the country for transcripts, notes, or secret recordings of those Wall Street speeches that the Clinton camp refuses to discuss in any great detail – probably because Goldman Sachs alone paid Clinton $675,000 to speak. We're going to go out on a limb here, but Clinton probably was not brought in to speak multiple times by Wall Street firms just so they could hear how bad they were, which is precisely why the GOP wants to get its hands on anything they can related to those speeches (recall: The Real Reason Hillary Clinton Refuses To Release Her Wall Street Transcripts).

    Ian Prior, communications director for Republican group American Crossroads, said that information on the Goldman speeches would prove cataclysmic for the Democratic party. "Just mail the Goldman Sachs transcripts to every Bernie supporter. There's your targeted mail program right there" Prior said, while also noting that it certainly would be one way to stop Bernie's supporters from voting for Clinton. Of course, the Democrats view the entire thing as a "total non-issue."

    Thus far, the Republicans have not been able to come up with anything significant outside of some attendee's recollection that the speech "was pretty glowing about us." One GOP official said the while efforts have been made, this is one of those situations where high profile and potentially damaging documents remain out of reach.

    Speaking of high profile and potentially damaging documents, as the FBI probe is winding down (with the conclusion of the investigation perhaps being an interview of Clinton directly), the State Department reiterated claims it made last December that it still can't seem to locate any emails to or from Clinton IT aide Bryan Pagliano

    Spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau told reporters Monday that the State Department hasn't been able to locate a single email Pagliano sent or received from May 1, 2009 to February 1, 2013. In addition to a gap in email correspondence, the State Department also does not have any text messages or BlackBerry Messenger messages sent to or from Clinton during her time in office according to The Hill.

    As The Weekly Standard notes, we know that at least one email was sent directly from Pagliano to Clinton during the missing time period…

     

    Of course, it has been able to locate emails for the time period after Clinton left the State Department…

    "The department has searched for Mr. Pagliano's e-mail PST file, and has not located one that covers the time period of Secretary Clinton's tenure.

     

    To be clear, the department does have records related to Mr. Pagliano and we are working with Congress and FOIA requesters to provide relevant material. The department has located a PST for Mr. Pagliano's recent work at the department as a contractor.

     

    But the files are from after Secretary Clinton left the department. We are continuing to search for Mr. Pagliano's e-mails which the department may have otherwise retained.

     

    "The department does acknowledge, we must work to improve our systems for record management and retention as part of the ongoing effort, the department is not automatically archiving Secretary Kerry's e-mails as well as the e-mails of numerous senior staff."

    Here are some headlines from Bloomberg:

    • *DEPARTMENT SAYS HAS SOME RECORDS FROM AFTER CLINTON'S DEPARTURE
    • *STATE DEPT. SAYS STILL LOOKING FOR PAGLIANO E-MAILS
    • *STATE DEPT: WE HAVE WORK TO DO TO IMPROVE RECORDS MANAGEMENT
    •  *REPUBLICANS HAD SOUGHT E-MAILS FROM/TO BRYAN PAGLIANO

    We'll let the readers draw their own conclusions from the State Departments comments, but once again we remind everyone that the Justice Department has granted immunity to Bryan Pagliano in exchange for his cooperation with the FBI investigation. Also as a reminder, as former U.S. attorney Matthew Whitaker pointed out, if the FBI does interview Clinton, they will only be asking questions that they already have the answers to – answers that could be provided by Pagliano's own computer, which the FBI already has in its possession.

    For those that wish to have blood shoot out of their eyes and ears, here is the State Department press conference…

  • M. King Hubbert: The Limits To Oil

    Submitted by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

    M. King Hubbert did more to raise awareness of the finite nature of global oil reserves than any other person, living or dead. He was a larger-than-life figure, who fought tirelessly to insert the limits of nature into the national dialog regarding the strategic use of resources. Yet surprisingly little has been publicly documented about the man, even though we are hurtling ever faster into a future shaped by the very limits he warned about.

    In today's podcast, Chris talks with Mason Inman about his new book The Oracle Of Oil, the first in-depth biography of M. King Hubbert, to learn more about the genesis of the Peak Oil theory:

    Hubbert was in a much higher position within the oil industry than I had realized. He was Head of Research at Shell Oil with the research for exploration and production of oil. At the time — this was in the 40’s through the 60’s when he was there — Shell’s lab was the most advanced in the industry, so he was really a leader within the industry.

     

    Also, it turned out there wasn’t a job for trying to forecast the future of oil. Basically, nobody was really doing anything rigorous. It had been growing quickly and they just kind of assumed that this would continue. He was doing this on his own, going against the grain in the industry to try to make forecasts that were rigorous. When he came out with bad news where he was saying that it looks like the oil production in the US will peak around the late 60’s or early 70’s, this was not a message that the industry wanted to hear. He had to fight to try to get people to take it seriously even though he had this really important position within the industry(…)

     

    He was very stubborn, which had some good sides to it and some bad sides to it. Even when people weren’t listening to him, he still kept hammering away at these issues about that growth can’t continue forever, that we’ll run into limits with oil production and that the economy is often shaped by forces that aren’t the best for common people necessarily. Even when people weren’t listening, he still kept trying to get these messages across for decades because he believed that education and rational discussion was the best way to try to change society.

     

    I really came to appreciate his persistence in his and it was remarkable how he never seemed to get bitter that it was difficult to get these messages across. Sometimes when other people did start to get attention for similar ideas, he wasn’t bitter that they were getting a lot of attention rather than he was. For example, in the early 1970’s there’s this report, The Limits to Growth that came out that got a lot of attention and in his talks Hubbert pointed out this was essentially what he had been talking about for years and the people who were behind The Limits to Growth report, these MIT researchers, they actually said that they got a lot of inspiration from Hubbert. I have a letter that I ran across in Hubbert’s papers from Dennis Meadows, who was one of the leaders of The Limits to Growth report and he was suggesting a collaboration with Hubbert and it never came about, but it’s kind of amazing to think about What if they had? (…)

     

    It's important for people to realize that conventional oil production did peak a decade ago in 2006. Conventional oil makes up about 90% of the oil that we consume now and it's from the kind of fields where you drill a hole in the ground and oil comes out. The unconventional oil that we hear a lot more about — like from fracking, where you have to pump all this fluid in to create fractures in the rocks in order to get any oil out, or tar sands where you have to dig things up and cook them down in order to get oil out — those unconventional sources get a lot of attention because they’re the marginal source that have a lot of influence on what the price of oil is. But, they actually make up a very small part of what we consume, so people have generated a lot of hype around fracking but it's a relatively small player in the overall oil market — though it can have a big influence on prices, as we’ve seen lately. Fracking is not the only reason why the price of oil has dropped lately. It’s also because the world economy is not doing well and the growth forecasts keep getting revised downward, but it definitely played a role that oil production in the US was able to increase so rapidly. But that’s tied up with a whole bunch of stuff like cheap credit being available to these companies so that they could boost production without really having to worry about the normal things that businesses worry about.

     

    That’s a big reason why we’re not seeing the death of peak oil I think, because we’ve hit this limit with conventional oil production. Companies have had every reason to try to boost production of conventional oil if they could, and so far it seems like they haven’t been able to. And now major forecasters like the International Energy Agency or Exxon Mobil or BP: they all say that conventional oil production isn’t going to go any higher than it is now. But those forecasters have also generally been overly optimistic about how much conventional oil production there would be. They didn’t foresee this peak coming so I’m inclined to think that their latest forecasts are probably also overly optimistic. If they’re saying it's just going to be flat from here on for the next quarter century, that’s probably too high. We’re probably looking at a decline in conventional oil production coming.

     

    I've definitely found a lot of reports from the military in the US and other countries that are raising concerns about peak oil or about limits to the oil that might be available to the military and the cost of that oil. They’re definitely thinking about these issues. 

    Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Mason Inman (38m:30s)

  • Options Traders Confidence Collapses Most Since August Crash

    The realized (actual) volatility of the US equity market has plunged in recent weeks to its lowest since April 2015 as an odd complacency washed across risk assets emboldened by "whatever it takes" synonyms spewing from every and any central banker in the world. However, options traders appear to be losing faith in the market turmoil cease-fire as implied volatility (the market's best guess at future uncertainty) trades at its largest premium to historical volatility in over a year.

    As Bloomberg reports, there have only been six days the S&P 500 swung more than 1 percent since the start of March, the longest comparable stretch of peace since May 2015. That’s lured automated funds that trade based on volatility trends to buy more U.S. stocks, increasing their ability to wreak havoc should markets start to crack.

    Price swings have been relatively muted the past two months, but options traders are betting it won’t last. The gap between the one-month historical volatility, a measure of actual price swings, and what traders are willing to pay for protection is at its widest since August.

    Implied volatility trades at a 55% premium to realized volatility – its highest in a year…

    The last time this happened, as the chart suggests, the 'market' is perceiving the fragility in the calm is going to end very soon – just as it did in the summer of 2015, before the August crash.

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